<?xml version='1.0' encoding='utf-8' ?>
<docs>
  <doc>
    <id>2726</id>
    <title>Bob Rushing's Departure
</title>
    <description>All:  

Bob Rushing has decided to pursue other opportunities and will be
leaving us.  We appreciate his efforts while he was with us and wish him
the best.

______________________________________________
Ronald E. Moore
Vice President for Operations and Intelligence
Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
700 Lavaca St., Suite 900
Austin, TX 78701
512-744-4300
moore@stratfor.com 
</description>
    <date>2005-06-23 18:39:52</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-15 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2726_bob-rushing-s-departure-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>allstratfor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>moore@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5490</id>
    <title>RE: GV Mailouts
</title>
    <description>39</description>
    <date>2007-02-13 19:14:12</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5490_re-gv-mailouts-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>hanna@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>campbell@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mirela.glass@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Solomon.Foshko@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/1/1595_GV MASTER Client List 2-5-07.xls</path><size>1162752</size><md5></md5><sha1>145e123438697827b1c9cc3ed45f95ea3506d716</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5940</id>
    <title>GV MASTER CLIENT LIST 15 March 07
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2007-03-16 16:35:14</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5940_gv-master-client-list-15-march-07-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>glass@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sagebiel@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>gibbons@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>campbell@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Solomon.Foshko@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/1/1785_GV MASTER Client List 3-15-07.xls</path><size>1177088</size><md5></md5><sha1>8cde613f6f64fd7d2835e0b85048b15504795445</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>6067</id>
    <title>GV master client list 2/23
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2007-02-23 21:06:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/6067_gv-master-client-list-2-23-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>sagebiel@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>gibbons@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>campbell@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>hanna@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Solomon.Foshko@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mirela.glass@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/1/1831_GV MASTER Client List 2-23-07.xls</path><size>1176576</size><md5></md5><sha1>e3c643ef71ac80a73daf967b49ccae043c89fbfb</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>12935</id>
    <title>STRATFOR in Platts
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2009-06-26 00:13:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-14 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/12935_stratfor-in-platts-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>allstratfor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>brian.genchur@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/2/2962_plattsp23.pdf</path><size>3092935</size><md5></md5><sha1>64950b42d39efdd979a55e578fb937a333a54b0f</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>14617</id>
    <title>STRATFOR - Security Reminder 
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2009-09-02 21:31:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/14617_stratfor-security-reminder-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>leticia.pursel@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>undisclosed-recipients:</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/3/3250_STRATFOR Security Information and Instructions.pdf</path><size>125607</size><md5></md5><sha1>43faa318c5dddedd7c6668f27ee34e5953570215</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>17453</id>
    <title>RE: Tase Him, Bro!- Ann Coulter
</title>
    <description>    
   Under J. Edgar Hoover's watch, this lefty college President would have his
   bedroom bugged, accused as a child molester and surveilled as a
   subversive.    I know a few right wingers from The Tribe who are plotting
   revenge.  Hit these liberal arseholes in the wallet, by cutting off their
   funding, so they need to get real jobs.  
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: sarah campbell [mailto:campbell@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, September 27, 2007 3:04 PM
   To: social@stratfor.com
   Subject: Tase Him, Bro!- Ann Coulter
   Shes crazzzy, but Fred will probably like this article haha.
    
    

   TASE HIM, BRO!
   by Ann Coulter
   September 26, 2007

   Democrats should run Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for president. He's more coherent
   than Dennis Kucinich, he dresses like their base, he's more macho than
   John Edwards, and he's willing to show up at a forum where he might get
   one hostile question -- unlike the current Democratic candidates for
   president who won't debate on Fox News Channel. He's not married to an
   impeached president, and the name "Mahmoud Ahmadinejad" is surely no more
   frightening than "B. Hussein Obama."

   And liberals agree with Ahmadinejad on the issues! We know that because he
   was invited by an American university to speak on campus.

   Contrary to all the blather about "free speech" surrounding Ahmadinejad's
   appearance at Columbia, universities in America do not invite speakers who
   do not perfectly mirror the political views of their America-hating
   faculties. Rather, they aggressively censor differing viewpoints and
   permit only a narrow category of speech on their campuses. Ask Larry
   Summers.

   If a university invites someone to speak, you know the faculty agrees with
   the speaker. Maybe not the entire faculty. Some Columbia professors
   probably consider Ahmadinejad too moderate on Israel.

   Columbia president Lee Bollinger claimed the Ahmadinejad invitation is in
   keeping with "Columbia's long-standing tradition of serving as a major
   forum for robust debate."

   Except Columbia doesn't have that tradition. This is worse than saying
   "the dog ate my homework." It's like saying "the dog ate my homework" when
   you're Michael Vick and everyone knows you've killed your dog.

   Columbia's "tradition" is to shut down any speakers who fall outside the
   teeny, tiny seditious perspective of its professors.

   When Minutemen leader Jim Gilchrist and his black colleague Marvin Stewart
   were invited by the College Republicans to speak at Columbia last year,
   the tolerant, free-speech-loving Columbia students violently attacked
   them, shutting down the speech.

   Imbued with Bollinger's commitment to free speech, Columbia junior Ryan
   Fukumori said of the Minutemen: "They have no right to be able to speak
   here."

   Needless to say -- unlike Ahmadinejad -- the university had not invited
   the Minutemen. Most colleges and universities wouldn't buy a cup of coffee
   for a conservative speaker.

   Fees for speakers who do not hate America are raised from College
   Republican fundraisers and contributions from patriotic alumni and locals
   who think students ought to hear at least one alternative viewpoint in
   four years of college.

   And then college administrators turn a blind eye when liberal
   apple-polishers and suck-ups shut down the speech or physically attack the
   speaker.

   Bollinger refused to punish the students who stormed the stage and
   violently ended the Minutemen's speech.

   So the one thing we know absolutely is that Bollinger did not allow
   Ahmadinejad to speak out of respect for "free speech" because Bollinger
   does not respect free speech.

   Only because normal, patriotic Americans were appalled by Columbia's
   invitation of Ahmadinejad to speak was Bollinger forced into the
   ridiculous position of denouncing Ahmadinejad when introducing him.

   Then why did you invite him?

   And by the way, I'll take a denunciation if college presidents would show
   up at my speeches and drone on for 10 minutes about "free speech" before I
   begin.

   At Syracuse University last year, when liberal hecklers tried to shut down
   a speech by a popular conservative author of (almost!) six books, College
   Republicans began to remove the hecklers. But Dean of Students Roy Baker
   blocked them from removing students disrupting the speech on the grounds
   that removing students screaming during a speech would violate the
   hecklers' "free speech." They had a "free speech" right to prevent anyone
   from hearing a conservative's free speech.

   That's what colleges mean by "free speech." (And by the way, my fingers
   are getting exhausted from making air quotes every time I use the
   expression "free speech" in relation to a college campus.)

   "Tolerance of opposing views" means we have to listen to their
   anti-American views, but they don't have to hear our pro-American views.
   (In Washington, they call this "the Fairness Doctrine.")

   Liberals are never called upon to tolerate anything they don't already
   adore, such as treason, pornography and heresy. In fact, those will often
   get you course credit.

   At Ahmadinejad's speech, every vicious anti-Western civilization remark
   was cheered wildly. It was like watching an episode of HBO'S "Real Time
   With Bill Maher."

   Ahmadinejad complained that the U.S. and a few other "monopolistic powers,
   selfish powers" were trying to deny Iranians their "right" to develop
   nukes.

   Wild applause.

   Ahmadinejad repeatedly refused to answer whether he seeks the destruction
   of the state of Israel.

   Wild applause.

   He accused the U.S. of supporting terrorism.

   Wild applause.

   Only when Ahmadinejad failed to endorse sodomy did he receive the single
   incident of booing throughout his speech.

   Responding to a question about Iran's execution of homosexuals,
   Ahmadinejad said there are no homosexuals in Iran: "In Iran we don't have
   homosexuals, like in your country. In Iran we do not have this phenomenon.
   I don't know who's told you that we have it."

   I already knew that from looking at his outfit. If liberals want to run
   this guy for president, they better get him to "Queer Eye for the
   Islamofascist Guy."

   COPYRIGHT 2007 ANN COULTER

   DISTRIBUTED BY UNIVERSAL PRESS SYNDICATE

   4520 Main Street, Kansas City, MO 64111
    
   Sarah Campbell
   Briefer, International Custom Intelligence Services
   Stratfor, Strategic Forecasting
   T: 703.469.2182 ex: 2186
   F: 703.469.2189
   C: 732.614.8033
   www.stratfor.com
   sarah.campbell@stratfor.com
    
    
    
    
    
    
</description>
    <date>2007-09-27 22:30:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-23 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/17453_re-tase-him-bro-ann-coulter-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>campbell@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>social@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>31423</id>
    <title>Re: Marine Corps
</title>
    <description>   US Marines lead the way!

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Ronald A Duchin" &lt;duchin@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2010 17:29:55 -0400
   To: 'George Friedman'&lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;; &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Marine Corps

   George:

    

   Many thanks for your congratulations on this. I think this worked and will
   continue to work because we have a mission-oriented product that serves
   the client's needs on a timely basis. The Marines were impressed by our
   willingness to incorporate their needs into the portal.  There's more to
   come from the Marine Corps and the other services now that we sold this
   one at the Commandant's level.

    

   -Ron

    

   Ronald A. Duchin

   703-407-4297

   duchin@verizon.net

   duchin@STRATFOR.com

    

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: George Friedman [mailto:gfriedman@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, July 29, 2010 3:50 PM
   To: allstratfor
   Subject:

    

   All

   I want to announce our first--and major sale--of a portal. The Marine
   Corps has purchased a hundred seat license to our Military Portal.B As you
   will all recall, our Portal Strategy was designed to take our current
   content, and focus it through dedicated portals on particular markets. We
   have developed a Security Portal and a Military Portal toward that end.B
   This sale represents both our first sale and a large sale to a significant
   customer. It tells us that the strategy works.

   I should also point out that this product sold with remarkable speed. It
   took some two months from conception to implementation to sale. In the DOD
   world, that's breakneck speed.B Tracy Rana, a new sales representative
   managed the sale, and Ron Duchin opened the door--the all important step.B
   Anya Alfano and Nate Hughes served as the Briefers and Kevin Garry did the
   ITB work.

   I particularly want to mention Bob Merry and Beth Bronder.B This was their
   strategy. It consisted of taking existing content and organizing it in
   such a way as to make it more useful and attractive to particular
   customers.B The theory was that less was more.B The decisions by the
   Marines to buy is proof of concept--it works.

   Of course, all of Stratfor made this sale possible, from Intelligence
   which produced the content, to finance that controlled our costs so that
   resources were available to undertake the project to Consumer Sales that
   generate cash to keep us going.B This is an all Stratfor effort.

   We have taken all available resource and put them behind this project and
   related projects.B The theory was that austerity now will build prosperity
   in the future.B This sale tells us that that strategy is going to work. I
   thank all of you for your hard work and your understanding that investing
   now builds prosperity in the future.B This sale tells us that this
   strategy will work.

   There is a huge amount of work ahead of course.B But we now have a strong
   indication that the work will pay off.

   George

   --

   George Friedman

   Founder and CEO

   Stratfor

   700 Lavaca Street

   Suite 900

   Austin, Texas 78701

    

   PhoneB 512-744-4319

   FaxB 512-744-4334
</description>
    <date>2010-07-29 23:37:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-11 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/31423_re-marine-corps-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>allstratfor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>duchin@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>35754</id>
    <title>Re: The Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks' Survival
</title>
    <description>51</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 18:50:42</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/35754_re-the-assange-arrest-and-wikileaks-survival-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>Solomon.Foshko@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>drew@fark.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>35760</id>
    <title>Re: The Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks' Survival
</title>
    <description>   Thanks. I'm getting a kick out of Anon activities related to this whole
   thing. 
   Solomon Foshko
   Global Intelligence
   STRATFOR 
   T: 512.744.4089
   F: 512.744.0239

   Solomon.Foshko@stratfor.com

   On Dec 7, 2010, at 11:50 AM, Drew Curtis wrote:

     sup man

     here's some extra info along these same lines:
     http://www.neontommy.com/news/2010/12/war-internet-anonymous-defends-wikileaks-after-cablegate

     On Tue, 7 Dec 2010, Stratfor wrote:

       Date: Tue, 7 Dec 2010 11:39:45 -0600

       From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;

       To: DrewAtFark &lt;drew@fark.com&gt;

       Subject: The Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks' Survival

       STRATFOR

       ---------------------------

       December 7, 2010

       THE ASSANGE ARREST AND WIKILEAKS' SURVIVAL

       Summary

       WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange surrendered to authorities in Britain
       on Dec. 7, following an Interpol Red Notice based on a Swedish arrest
       warrant. WikiLeaks is a relatively young organization with one leader
       and has not institutionalized a set of practices and protocols that
       guarantee its survival even if the personnel changes. Assange's arrest
       will test the organization's ability to maintain itself, but the use
       of the Internet to leak documents will continue.

       Analysis

       London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and
       public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 9:30 a.m. local time on Dec. 7
       after Assange turned himself in. He is due to appear in a court in
       Westminster soon over sexual assault charges filed against him in
       Sweden, and faces possible extradition.

       There is considerable interest in what his arrest will mean for his
       organization. WikiLeaks organized a new method for an old practice --
       leaking confidential government information in an attempt to influence
       politics. And while Assange's arrest could disrupt the long-term
       viability of WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release of the current
       batch of diplomatic cables in the short term, nor will it stop similar
       future leaks via the Internet.

       Leadership is extremely important in nongovernmental organizations
       that have not institutionalized to the point where their dominant
       figures are replaceable and members can adapt to changing
       circumstance. From terrorist groups to charities, new organizations
       often rise and fall with their founders. Assange created WikiLeaks
       with himself as the only public face -- he leads supporters, drives
       donations, gives interviews and faces the resulting criticism. There
       have been reports of internal dissent and tensions, and in one
       interview with CNN, a discussion of the organization's internal
       politics seemed to touch a nerve with Assange. If Assange were to face
       charges in Sweden for sexual assault or new charges in the United
       Kingdom or the United States and was found guilty, WikiLeaks would
       still need someone to oversee it. Assange may have someone ready to
       fill the leadership void, but there has been no evidence of this.

       In addition to having its leadership threatened, WikiLeaks has
       suffered logistically. As national governments put pressure on its
       infrastructure, its web server has been shut down, and most important,
       a major source of funding, PayPal, has closed WikiLeaks' account (Visa
       and Mastercard have also banned payments from their cards to
       WikiLeaks). It is also possible the events of the past few months will
       deter other potential leakers from approaching WikiLeaks as opposed to
       other organizations (especially if they dislike or disagree with
       Assange). Moreover, this new set of documents has not been greeted
       with the reaction Assange expected -- the U.S. public is not angry at
       the State Department, but many are angry at Assange and his
       organization.

       Immediately following Assange's arrest, a WikiLeaks spokesman said the
       arrest would not stop the group's operations. Indeed, whether Assange
       remains behind bars or not, it most likely will not stop the continued
       release of the 250,000 U.S. State Department cables, only a fraction
       of which have been released thus far. It also will not shut down
       WikiLeaks, which still maintains its website -- albeit currently on a
       Swiss server, after its initial U.S.-hosted servers were deactivated
       -- and the ability to collect information from leakers. So in the
       short term, WikiLeaks will persist. The question remains if Assange
       created a truly sustainable institution.

       If Assange is extradited to Sweden and tried on one count of unlawful
       coercion, two counts of sexual molestation and one count of rape, it
       is not clear to what degree the image of WikiLeaks will be damaged;
       thus far Assange has cultivated the site as an extension of his
       persona, and even without the assault charges he is not held in high
       repute. The extradition process could take months or even years, and
       he may try to use prison time to develop his image as a martyr for
       free speech, but this can backfire. If WikiLeaks, however, is not tied
       to his image, it will be much more sustainable as an organization.

       Western governments also fear whatever is contained in his "insurance"
       file, a 1.4-gigabyte computer file that has already been distributed
       to many thousands of people over the Internet. Assange has threatened
       to release the encryption password if something happens to him. As
       STRATFOR has stated before, WikiLeaks likely led with its most
       insightful documents, and thus those saved in the insurance file are
       probably less enlightening than they are damaging. The file may
       contain no new information at all, but simply the names and
       information on sources, diplomats, military and intelligence officers
       not already disclosed. Such a release could put these individuals'
       jobs or even lives at risk. However, such a release exposing these
       individuals in a vindictive manner could further tarnish Assange and
       WikiLeaks in the eyes of the international public, to include
       potential financial and information contributors. Beyond that,
       governments will almost certainly take stronger measures

     against WikiLeaks if it does release identities of classified sources or
     officers.

       WikiLeaks is now facing a conundrum that all new organizations face at
       some point -- the ability to maintain and transition leadership
       through adverse circumstances. Assange may be released quickly, but if
       he is not, WikiLeaks' survival will be in question. However, even if
       WikiLeaks disappears, the organizational concept will continue, and
       leaks along with it. WikiLeaks has only demonstrated the ability new
       technology has created to transfer large quantities of documents, and
       there is no reason other organizations will not make use of the same
       technology.

       Copyright 2010 STRATFOR.

     Drew Curtis
     Fark.com: It's not news, It's Fark
</description>
    <date>2010-12-09 06:29:38</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-06 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/35760_re-the-assange-arrest-and-wikileaks-survival-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>drew@fark.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>36814</id>
    <title>Re: The Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks' Survival
</title>
    <description>
same here.  Kinda disorganized, kinda reminds me of when I was 19

On Wed, 8 Dec 2010, Solomon Foshko wrote:

&gt; Date: Wed, 8 Dec 2010 23:29:38 -0600
&gt; From: Solomon Foshko &lt;solomon.foshko@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; To: Drew Curtis &lt;drew@fark.com&gt;
&gt; Subject: Re: The Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks' Survival
&gt; 
&gt; Thanks. I'm getting a kick out of Anon activities related to this whole thing.
&gt;
&gt; Solomon Foshko
&gt; Global Intelligence
&gt; STRATFOR
&gt; T: 512.744.4089
&gt; F: 512.744.0239
&gt; Solomon.Foshko@stratfor.com
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; On Dec 7, 2010, at 11:50 AM, Drew Curtis wrote:
&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; sup man
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; here's some extra info along these same lines:
&gt;&gt; http://www.neontommy.com/news/2010/12/war-internet-anonymous-defends-wikileaks-after-cablegate
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; On Tue, 7 Dec 2010, Stratfor wrote:
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Date: Tue, 7 Dec 2010 11:39:45 -0600
&gt;&gt;&gt; From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; To: DrewAtFark &lt;drew@fark.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: The Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks' Survival
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; STRATFOR
&gt;&gt;&gt; ---------------------------
&gt;&gt;&gt; December 7, 2010
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; THE ASSANGE ARREST AND WIKILEAKS' SURVIVAL
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Summary
&gt;&gt;&gt; WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange surrendered to authorities in Britain on Dec. 7, following an Interpol Red Notice based on a Swedish arrest warrant. WikiLeaks is a relatively young organization with one leader and has not institutionalized a set of practices and protocols that guarantee its survival even if the personnel changes. Assange's arrest will test the organization's ability to maintain itself, but the use of the Internet to leak documents will continue.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Analysis
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 9:30 a.m. local time on Dec. 7 after Assange turned himself in. He is due to appear in a court in Westminster soon over sexual assault charges filed against him in Sweden, and faces possible extradition.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; There is considerable interest in what his arrest will mean for his organization. WikiLeaks organized a new method for an old practice -- leaking confidential government information in an attempt to influence politics. And while Assange's arrest could disrupt the long-term viability of WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release of the current batch of diplomatic cables in the short term, nor will it stop similar future leaks via the Internet.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Leadership is extremely important in nongovernmental organizations that have not institutionalized to the point where their dominant figures are replaceable and members can adapt to changing circumstance. From terrorist groups to charities, new organizations often rise and fall with their founders. Assange created WikiLeaks with himself as the only public face -- he leads supporters, drives donations, gives interviews and faces the resulting criticism. There have been reports of internal dissent and tensions, and in one interview with CNN, a discussion of the organization's internal politics seemed to touch a nerve with Assange. If Assange were to face charges in Sweden for sexual assault or new charges in the United Kingdom or the United States and was found guilty, WikiLeaks would still need someone to oversee it. Assange may have someone ready to fill the leadership void, but there has been no evidence of this.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; In addition to having its leadership threatened, WikiLeaks has suffered logistically. As national governments put pressure on its infrastructure, its web server has been shut down, and most important, a major source of funding, PayPal, has closed WikiLeaks' account (Visa and Mastercard have also banned payments from their cards to WikiLeaks). It is also possible the events of the past few months will deter other potential leakers from approaching WikiLeaks as opposed to other organizations (especially if they dislike or disagree with Assange). Moreover, this new set of documents has not been greeted with the reaction Assange expected -- the U.S. public is not angry at the State Department, but many are angry at Assange and his organization.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Immediately following Assange's arrest, a WikiLeaks spokesman said the arrest would not stop the group's operations. Indeed, whether Assange remains behind bars or not, it most likely will not stop the continued release of the 250,000 U.S. State Department cables, only a fraction of which have been released thus far. It also will not shut down WikiLeaks, which still maintains its website -- albeit currently on a Swiss server, after its initial U.S.-hosted servers were deactivated -- and the ability to collect information from leakers. So in the short term, WikiLeaks will persist. The question remains if Assange created a truly sustainable institution.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; If Assange is extradited to Sweden and tried on one count of unlawful coercion, two counts of sexual molestation and one count of rape, it is not clear to what degree the image of WikiLeaks will be damaged; thus far Assange has cultivated the site as an extension of his persona, and even without the assault charges he is not held in high repute. The extradition process could take months or even years, and he may try to use prison time to develop his image as a martyr for free speech, but this can backfire. If WikiLeaks, however, is not tied to his image, it will be much more sustainable as an organization.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Western governments also fear whatever is contained in his "insurance" file, a 1.4-gigabyte computer file that has already been distributed to many thousands of people over the Internet. Assange has threatened to release the encryption password if something happens to him. As STRATFOR has stated before, WikiLeaks likely led with its most insightful documents, and thus those saved in the insurance file are probably less enlightening than they are damaging. The file may contain no new information at all, but simply the names and information on sources, diplomats, military and intelligence officers not already disclosed. Such a release could put these individuals' jobs or even lives at risk. However, such a release exposing these individuals in a vindictive manner could further tarnish Assange and WikiLeaks in the eyes of the international public, to include potential financial and information contributors. Beyond that, governments will almost certainly take stronger measure
 s
&gt;&gt; against WikiLeaks if it does release identities of classified sources or officers.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; WikiLeaks is now facing a conundrum that all new organizations face at some point -- the ability to maintain and transition leadership through adverse circumstances. Assange may be released quickly, but if he is not, WikiLeaks' survival will be in question. However, even if WikiLeaks disappears, the organizational concept will continue, and leaks along with it. WikiLeaks has only demonstrated the ability new technology has created to transfer large quantities of documents, and there is no reason other organizations will not make use of the same technology.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Copyright 2010 STRATFOR.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Drew Curtis
&gt;&gt; Fark.com: It's not news, It's Fark
&gt;
&gt;

Drew Curtis
Fark.com: It's not news, It's Fark
</description>
    <date>2010-12-09 06:41:35</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/36814_re-the-assange-arrest-and-wikileaks-survival-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>Solomon.Foshko@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>drew@fark.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>38322</id>
    <title>Previous STRATFOR information
</title>
    <description>   Solomon Foshko
   Global Intelligence
   STRATFOR 
   T: 512.744.4089
   F: 512.744.0239

   Solomon.Foshko@stratfor.com

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 13, 2010 5:42:40 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Intelligence Guidance: Week of Dec. 12, 2010

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Intelligence Guidance: Week of Dec. 12, 2010                             
                                                                              
      December 13, 2010 | 1135 GMT                                            
      Intelligence Guidance: Week of Dec. 12, 2010                            
      JONATHAN NACKSTRAND/AFP/Getty Images                                    
      Police in the Stockholm shopping district targeted by a suicide bomber  
      on Dec. 11                                                              
                                                                              
      Editor*s Note: The following is an internal STRATFOR document produced  
      to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a  
      forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and       
      evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.           
                                                                              
      New Guidance                                                            
                                                                              
      1. Sweden: The Dec. 11 suicide bombing in Stockholm was a tactical      
      failure * only two people were injured and the only person killed in    
      the attack was the suspected bomber. Yet there remains the potential    
      for accomplices and the evolution of the bomber*s radicalization still  
      needs to be examined. Sweden is considered one of the more liberal      
      countries toward immigrants, but well before this attack even it had    
      begun to feel the strain between European countries and their Muslim    
      populations. How will the incident impact the Swedish government, its   
      policies and attitudes of Swedes toward immigration? This attack may    
      ultimately prove to be as inconsequential as it was tactically          
      amateurish, but we cannot assume this and need to be thinking about     
      broader reverberations.                                                 
                                                                              
      2. Iran: Despite low expectations, there was some measure of progress   
      in the nuclear talks during the week of Dec. 5 in Geneva. Though the    
      underlying issues remain unresolved, modest progress is itself          
      noteworthy. Meanwhile, in Baghdad a governing coalition is taking       
      shape. There are signs here that we need to understand and put into     
      context. Is there meaningful movement between Washington and Tehran?    
      U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates recently met with Arab leaders      
      from Gulf states to discuss Iran, and Gulf Cooperation Council member   
      states held a summit in which, for the first time, they demanded a      
      seat at the table in Iran-related talks. We need to figure what really  
      happened in these talks and the back-channels to get a sense of where   
      things are headed.                                                      
                                                                              
      3. China, India: Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao will visit India from Dec.  
      15-18. Wen will be accompanied by the biggest ever Chinese trade        
      delegation * more than 250 representatives from 100 Chinese companies,  
      in sectors ranging from manufacturing and banking to information        
      technology. We need to watch this trip closely, as it will afford a     
      host of opportunities for bilateral talks and sidelines discussions.    
                                                                              
      4. Japan: A new guiding document for the Japan Self-Defense Forces is   
      expected this week that will reorient the country*s military strategy   
      to specifically focus more on countering China. We need to examine      
      both the military specifics here as well as regional reactions to the   
      overt shift * particularly in Beijing and Pyongyang, as well as Seoul.  
                                                                              
      5. Belarus: Russia and Belarus have reached a deal on two oil tariffs   
      and a customs union that have been straining relations between Minsk    
      and Moscow, as Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko prepares for   
      a presidential election on Dec. 19 in which he is almost certain to be  
      re-elected. But Lukashenko has also been at the center of Russia*s      
      frustrations with Belarus. We need to watch Belarus closely. If the     
      Kremlin has come to an understanding with Lukashenko, that is           
      important. If it seeks to undermine his re-election, that is also       
      important. We need to know where matters stand between the two          
      countries.                                                              
                                                                              
      Existing Guidance                                                       
                                                                              
      1. Iraq: A governing coalition is taking form in Baghdad, albeit        
      slowly. We need to lean forward on this, looking at the final           
      breakdown of power and understanding that this will mean for Iraq, the  
      United States and the region. In just over one year, all U.S. forces    
      are slated to be withdrawn from the country, and with them an enormous  
      amount of American influence. Will this go through? With the governing  
      coalition issue settled, what are the key points of contention between  
      Washington and Tehran?                                                  
                                                                              
      2. United States: U.S. State Department diplomatic cables continue to   
      trickle out of WikiLeaks. How are countries and their populations       
      reacting to the revelations made in the cables? What will be the        
      functional consequences for the practice of American diplomacy? Are     
      there any major rifts emerging? We need to keep track of the public     
      reaction and stay aware of any constraints domestic politics may place  
      on the countries in question. Though few radically new or unexpected    
      revelations have been unearthed, the release offers a remarkably broad  
      insight into the world of American foreign policy as it takes place     
      behind closed doors. How do the leaks either confirm or call into       
      question standing STRATFOR assessments?                                 
                                                                              
      3. Russia, U.S.: We are picking up on signs that the U.S.-Russia        
      *reset* in relations is beginning to break down. If U.S. President      
      Barack Obama fails to deliver on START, how and where will the          
      Russians respond? We are already hearing rumors of indirect U.S.        
      military assistance going to Georgia as well as Russian military        
      equipment being delivered to Iran. Ramp up intelligence collection to   
      figure out if there is any truth to the rumors, and if so, what the     
      significance of these military transfers may be and what other levers   
      each side might use in such a tit-for-tat campaign.                     
                                                                              
      4. Afghanistan: The United States and its NATO allies have agreed on a  
      timetable that would transfer security responsibility to the Afghans    
      by 2014. The United States has affirmed that *combat* operations are    
      to cease by the deadline * note the parallel with Iraq, where 50,000    
      troops remain in an *advisory and assistance* role. This is an          
      explicit American commitment to the war effort for years to come. We    
      need to gauge the response of both the Taliban and Pakistan. At the     
      same time, what is the status of the reported and rumored talks         
      between the Taliban and U.S. and Afghan officials, and what is the      
      impact, if any, of the revelation that one of the so-called senior      
      Taliban leaders participating in the talks is an impostor?              
                                                                              
      Meanwhile, winter is approaching. Both sides face constraints due to    
      the weather, but both also have incentives and opportunities to gain    
      ground. Fighting in Sangin district in Helmand province remains         
      intense. We need to monitor both sides* operational efforts in the      
      months ahead. What impact will the weather have on the International    
      Security Assistance Force*s intelligence, surveillance and              
      reconnaissance capabilities?                                            
                                                                              
      5. Brazil: Brazilian security forces have seized Rio de Janeiro*s two   
      most violent and drug-ridden favelas, or shantytowns. We need to watch  
      this closely as the campaign progresses. Can Brasilia translate its     
      initial offensive into lasting success? Groups such as the First        
      Capital Command (PCC) and Amigos Dos Amigos are very powerful * and     
      brazen * and will not go down without a fight. Not only are key         
      individuals not being arrested, but the favelas are a symptom of deep,  
      intractable problems with crime, corruption, narcotics and poverty.     
      How are these underlying issues being addressed? We need to be wary of  
      Brazil*s embarking on an endeavor it cannot see through (Mexico*s drug  
      war comes to mind), and thus run the risk of ultimately making the      
      problem worse, rather than better.                                      
                                                                              
      Outgoing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva*s recognition of           
      Palestinian statehood raises a number of questions. Brazil has been     
      dabbling more assertively in international affairs, and da Silva is in  
      the twilight of his presidency. But, we need to take a closer look at   
      Brazil*s rationale * why this, and why now? Will the backlash from the  
      United States and Israel be rhetorical or significant?                  
                                                                              
      Related Special Topic Page                                              
        * Weekly Intelligence That Drives Our Analysis                        
                                                                              
      EURASIA                                                                 
                                                                              
        * Dec. 13-16: North Korean Foreign Minister Pak Ui Chun*s visit to    
          Russia to discuss bilateral issues and security on the Korean       
          Peninsula with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will          
          continue.                                                           
        * Dec. 13: The Hungarian parliament will hold a vote on a             
          controversial pension plan.                                         
        * Dec. 13: Argentine Economic Minister Amado Boudou will visit        
          France to discuss the repayment of debt owed to the Paris Club.     
        * Dec 13: Foreign ministers from the 27 EU member states will meet    
          with representatives from Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia,       
          Armenia and Azerbaijan in Brussels at an Eastern Partnership        
          Summit.                                                             
        * Dec. 13-14: An EU foreign ministers* meeting will be held in        
          Brussels and will center on the Middle East, Iran, Sudan and        
          Somalia.                                                            
        * Dec. 14: Former ETA members Arturo Cubillas Fontan and Jose Angel   
          Urtiaga will testify on the alleged links between ETA and the       
          Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia.                             
        * Dec. 14: A no-confidence vote will be held against Italian Prime    
          Minister Silvio Berlusconi*s government.                            
        * Dec. 14: WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange will face a hearing on    
          extradition to Sweden in a London court.                            
        * Dec. 14: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban will meet with       
          Slovak Prime Minister Iveta Radicova to discuss cooperation and     
          minority issues.                                                    
        * Dec. 14-27: The Bulgarian government will hold a public auction of  
          stakes in 31 companies in a major privatization bid.                
        * Dec. 15: Greek unions angered by austerity measures have called     
          for a Europe-wide day of strikes on this date.                      
        * Dec. 15: Police and firefighters in Prague will go on strike.       
        * Dec. 15: A governmental coalition is scheduled to be formed in      
          Bosnia-Herzegovina by this date.                                    
        * Dec. 15-16: Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich will visit        
          Latvia to meet with Latvian President Valdis Zatlers to discuss     
          bilateral ties.                                                     
        * Dec. 16: Geneva will host the 14th round of talks between Georgia,  
          Russia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia since the 2008 Russia-Georgia    
          war.                                                                
        * Dec. 16-17: A summit of EU leaders will be held.                    
        * Dec. 17: Russia will conduct a test launch of the Bulava            
          intercontinental ballistic missile from the Yuri Dolgorukiy         
          submarine, which will be operating in the White Sea.                
        * Dec. 18-22: The Greek parliament will debate the 2011 budget, with  
          a final decision to be made Dec. 22.                                
        * Dec. 19: Presidential elections will be held in Belarus.            
        * Dec. 19: Poland*s Office of Competition and Consumer Protection     
          will announce its opinion on privatizing state utility Energa.      
          Polish Treasury Minister Aleksander Grad will decide whether the    
          company should be privatized.                                       
        * Dec. 19-20: Bavarian Prime Minister Horst Seehofer will meet with   
          Czech Prime Minister Petr Necas in Prague to discuss cooperation.   
                                                                              
      MIDDLE EAST/SOUTH ASIA                                                  
                                                                              
        * Unspecified Date: U.S. Middle East envoy George Mitchell will       
          visit the region next week to hold direct talks with regional       
          leaders.                                                            
        * Dec. 13-15: A Dutch business delegation will continue its           
          three-day visit to Turkey, during which the delegation will meet    
          with the Turkish ministries of health and national defense as well  
          as officials from Turkish companies.                                
        * Dec. 13: The United States* new Afghanistan strategy will be        
          released.                                                           
        * Dec. 13-14: The United Arab Emirates will host its first            
          conference on Border Control, Airport and Seaport Security          
          (BCASS).                                                            
        * Dec. 13-14: Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Taner     
          Yildiz will meet Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin to       
          discuss a nuclear power plant to be constructed in Turkey.          
        * Dec. 14: French Foreign and European Affairs Minister Michele       
          Alliot-Marie will meet Moroccan Minister of Foreign Affairs and     
          Cooperation Taieb Fassi-Fihri, to discuss regional, political and   
          economic issues.                                                    
        * Dec. 15-18: Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao will make a three-day visit  
          to New Delhi during which talks about border issues will be held.   
        * Dec. 16-17: Tajik President Emomali Rahmon will make a two-day      
          visit to Turkey to meet with Turkish President Abdullah Gul and to  
          sign a series of bilateral cooperation agreements and protocols.    
        * Dec. 19: The deadline for the Sudanese government and the Darfuri   
          rebel group, the Liberation and Justice Movement (LJM), to sign a   
          peace agreement in Doha, Qatar, will be reached.                    
                                                                              
      EAST ASIA                                                               
                                                                              
        * Dec. 13-14: Namibian Minister of Foreign Affairs Utoni Nujoma*s     
          visit to China to meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi    
          and discuss bilateral cooperation will continue.                    
        * Dec. 13-17: Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen will meet with         
          Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in China to discuss bilateral ties.      
        * Dec. 14: Legislators from the Cambodian opposition party, the Sam   
          Rainsy Party, will visit the Cambodia-Vietnam border to view a      
          controversial border post.                                          
        * Dec. 14: Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov will meet   
          with South Korean Foreign Minister Kim Sung Hwan to discuss         
          bilateral cooperation in Seoul.                                     
        * Dec. 14-17: U.S. Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg will     
          head a delegation to Beijing to meet with Chinese officials         
          regarding regional security issues.                                 
        * Dec. 16: U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and        
          Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell will travel to Tokyo and special      
          envoy Sung Kim will travel to Seoul.                                
        * Dec. 15: A session of the Melanesian Spearhead Group will be held   
          in the Solomon Islands. The group is comprised of Fiji, Papua New   
          Guinea, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and the Kanak and Socialist        
          National Liberation Front of New Caledonia.                         
        * Dec. 15-16: A meeting of various foreign ministers, private sector  
          businesses and academics from 49 countries will take place in       
          Bangkok at the Asia-Middle East Dialogue.                           
        * Dec. 16-18: Chiang Pin Kung of the Taiwanese Straits Exchange       
          Foundation and Chen Yunlin, president of the Beijing-based          
          Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits will meet in    
          Taipei to hold cross-strait talks.                                  
        * Dec. 16-20: New Mexico*s governor, Bill Richardson, will visit      
          North Korea as a *private citizen* to ease tensions on the Korean   
          Peninsula.                                                          
        * Dec. 16-Jan. 3: The Communist Party of the Philippines and the      
          Philippine government have agreed to a temporary cease-fire that    
          will span these dates.                                              
        * Dec. 17: The Kingdom of Tonga will hold a vote for prime minister.  
        * Dec. 18-19: South Korean President Lee Myung Bak will be in Japan   
          to meet with Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan to discuss           
          bilateral cooperation and to facilitate the return of historic      
          Korean artifacts.                                                   
        * Dec. 19-21: Bangladeshi opposition leader and former Prime          
          Minister Khaleda Zia will visit meet with Communist Party of China  
          and government officials in China.                                  
                                                                              
      AMERICAS                                                                
                                                                              
        * Next week: Israeli and Palestinian negotiators will visit           
          Washington to consult the Obama administration about Middle East    
          peace talks.                                                        
        * Dec. 13: Venezuelan Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro will meet       
          Ecuadorian Foreign Minister Ricardo Patino in Salinas, Ecuador.     
        * Dec. 13: Mexico*s Institutional Revolutionary Party is scheduled    
          to hold a session of its National Political Council in Pachuca,     
          Hidalgo state.                                                      
        * Dec. 13: The Argentine foreign and labor ministers are scheduled    
          to meet with union members in Buenos Aires to discuss lifting a     
          strike that has blocked the entry of Paraguayan vessels into        
          Buenos Aires.                                                       
        * Dec. 13: Mexican Foreign Minister Patricia Espinosa will meet with  
          U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Canadian Foreign        
          Minister Lawrence Cannon in Wakefield, Quebec.                      
        * Dec. 14: Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa will visit Venezuela.   
        * Dec. 14-15: U.S. Commerce Secretary Gary Locke, U.S. Trade          
          Representative Ron Kirk and Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan of     
          the State Council will represent the United States and China at a   
          meeting of the Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade in            
          Washington.                                                         
        * Dec. 15: U.S. Vice President Joe Biden will chair a U.N. Security   
          Council meeting on the progress of Iraq*s government formation and  
          efforts to remove Iraq from Chapter 7 obligations.                  
        * Dec. 15: Member states of the Common Market of the South            
          (Mercosur) and Syria are scheduled to sign an agreement to begin    
          trade negotiations during a Mercosur summit in Brazil.              
        * Dec. 15: Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is scheduled to meet      
          with Bolivian President Evo Morales in Cochabamba, Bolivia.         
        * Dec. 15: Central American foreign ministers will participate in a   
          meeting of the Central American Integration System in Belmopan,     
          Belize.                                                             
        * Dec. 15: Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa will visit Colombia.    
        * Dec. 16: Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra will speak   
          to the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe in          
          Washington.                                                         
        * Dec. 16: The Central American Integration System Presidents*        
          Summit is scheduled to be held in Belmopan, Belize.                 
        * Dec. 17: The Mercosur Presidents* Summit is scheduled to be held    
          in Foz de Iguacu, Brazil.                                           
                                                                              
      AFRICA                                                                  
                                                                              
        * Dec. 13-15: Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos will travel   
          to South Africa for an official state visit.                        
        * Dec. 14: Nigeria*s ruling People*s Democratic Party will hold its   
          National Executive Committee meeting.                               
        * Dec. 14: Southern Sudan*s ruling Sudan People*s Liberation          
          Movement party will host a meeting of Southern Sudanese political   
          parties to discuss the Jan. 9, 2011, independence referendum.       
        * Dec. 14: Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan will submit the 2011  
          budget estimate to the National Assembly.                           
        * Dec. 15: The International Conference on the Great Lakes Region*s   
          Special Summit on Illegal Exploitation of Natural Resources will    
          be held in the Zambian capital of Lusaka; Sudanese President Omar   
          al Bashir has been invited to attend.                               
        * Dec. 15: Sudanese state-run oil company Sudapet and China National  
          Petroleum Company expect production results from a series of new    
          wells drilled in Block 6.                                           
        * Dec. 15: Exiled former Rwandan military officers Kayumba Nyamwasa   
          and Theogene Rudasingwa will face charges of forming a terrorist    
          group, ethnic divisionism and spreading harmful propaganda in       
          Rwanda.                                                             
        * Dec. 15: Oil production is expected to commence at the Jubilee      
          field off Ghana*s southwest coast.                                  
        * Dec. 15-18: The Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front     
          party will hold its 11th National Conference to decide a party      
          candidate for potential June 2011 national elections.               
        * Dec. 17: International Criminal Court Chief Prosecutor Luis         
          Moreno-Ocampo will file cases against six Kenyan politicians        
          accused of involvement in 2008 post-election violence.              
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 13, 2010 9:39:24 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: The Iranian Foreign Minister's Firing and Nuclear Divisions?

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     The Iranian Foreign Minister's Firing and Nuclear Divisions?             
                                                                              
      December 13, 2010 | 1403 GMT                                            
      The Iranian Foreign Minister's Firing and Nuclear Divisions?            
      ATTA KENARE/AFP/Getty Images                                            
      Former Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki (L) and Atomic       
      Energy Organization of Iran chief Ali Akbar Salehi                      
                                                                              
      Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has been fired by           
      President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has named the country*s nuclear      
      chief, Ali Akbar Salehi, as the interim foreign minister, Iranian       
      state media reported Dec. 13. Mottaki, who had held the post since      
      2005 when Ahmadinejad began his first term as president, was in         
      Senegal at the time his firing was announced, which suggests that he    
      was abruptly removed from the position.                                 
                                                                              
      It is no secret that Ahmadinejad and Mottaki disagreed on some policy   
      matters, as evidenced by numerous rumors throughout the years that      
      Mottaki had resigned or had been removed. His ouster comes shortly      
      after the Dec. 6-7 meeting between Iran and the P-5+1 nations over      
      Tehran*s controversial nuclear program. While both sides agreed that    
      further talks will be held next month in Istanbul, and while Iranian    
      officials from across the political establishment in Tehran have        
      hailed the talks as a success for the regime, Mottaki*s removal and     
      subsequent replacement (albeit temporary) by the country*s nuclear      
      chief underscores a rift within the ruling elite over the nuclear       
      issue.                                                                  
                                                                              
      Last year, when Ahmadinejad announced that his government was willing   
      to accept a uranium swapping deal, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali         
      Khamenei openly objected to the idea. It is possible that Mottaki was   
      aligned with Khamenei on this issue, and Ahmadinejad may have sacked    
      Mottaki to remove one of the most high-ranking Khamenei allies in his   
      Cabinet.                                                                
                                                                              
      The complex Iranian political structure * involving multiple            
      institutions having a say in foreign affairs * has long hindered the    
      Islamic republic*s ability to craft foreign policy. It is too early to  
      say much on the exact impact Mottaki*s removal will have on the         
      foreign policy decision-making process, however. What is certain is     
      that the power struggle between the various factions within Iran*s      
      ruling elite is hampering that process, and that the old lines between  
      pragmatists and ideologues have become increasingly blurry.             
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 13, 2010 10:57:29 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Canada, U.S.: Defining a North American Defense Perimeter

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Canada, U.S.: Defining a North American Defense Perimeter                
                                                                              
      December 13, 2010 | 1309 GMT                                            
      Canada, U.S.: Defining a North American Defense Perimeter               
      /AFP/Getty Images                                                       
      A checkpoint on the U.S.-Canada border in Stanstead, Quebec             
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      Canada and the United States are expected to enter a new phase of       
      border security negotiations in the coming months. Motivated by         
      economic need, the two countries have a long history of cooperating on  
      border-security issues, but in the post-9/11 world, expanding the       
      so-called *security perimeter* to the borders of North America raises   
      sovereignty concerns for Canada.                                        
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      Canadian Foreign Minister Lawrence Cannon will meet with U.S.           
      Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Dec. 13 just outside Ottawa to    
      discuss the formation of the *Beyond the Border Working Group,* which   
      would address U.S. perimeter security concerns in Canada. (Mexico has   
      its own security arrangements with the United States and Canada, and    
      while Mexican Foreign Secretary Patricia Espinosa will attend the Dec.  
      13 meeting, Mexico will not be involved in this particular working      
      group.) According to the Canadian TV network CTV, which has access to   
      a document outlining the proposal, the working group would discuss      
      cooperating on issues such as cargo security, border screening,         
      cross-border information sharing, improving the working relationship    
      between the militaries and preventing and recovering from               
      cyberattacks.                                                           
                                                                              
      The planned meeting follows a report issued earlier this month by the   
      Canadian Chamber of Commerce that emphasizes the negative impact        
      discordance between U.S. and Canadian customs and security regulations  
      has on businesses that rely on cross-border trade. In the conclusion    
      of its report, the chamber says:                                        
                                                                              
        *Modern security challenges necessitate pushing back the border by    
        identifying threats long before they arrive. Such a perimeter         
        approach to security allows for the identification of threats long    
        before they reach North American shores.*                             
                                                                              
      Confidence and trust that the United States and Canada might have in    
      each other to prevent major security threats from spilling over into    
      the other country is not a given. Ever since Canada ceased being a      
      strategic threat to the United States in the early 19th century, the    
      isolation of the North American continent was enough to allay           
      Washington*s security concerns. The 9/11 attacks fundamentally altered  
      that perception. From the American perspective, the attacks not only    
      highlighted weaknesses in American intelligence-sharing and security,   
      they also made it clear that geographic isolation alone cannot prevent  
      the United States and Canada from being directly attacked.              
                                                                              
      At the moment, security cooperation between the United States and       
      Canada is robust. The U.S. and Canadian militaries cooperate in         
      monitoring and guarding North American airspace through the North       
      American Aerospace Defense Command, and in October we saw a Canadian    
      air force jet escort a passenger aircraft into U.S. air space and hand  
      it off to U.S. fighter jets during the package-bomb scare targeting     
      UPS and FedEx. Another example of security cooperation was the arrest   
      of Abdirahman Ali Gaall, a Somali man en route from Paris to Mexico     
      City who had a U.S. warrant out for his arrest. Canadian authorities    
      forced the plane to make an unscheduled stop in Montreal in order to    
      take the man off the plane and detain him.                              
                                                                              
      Despite the high level of security cooperation already in place, the    
      United States has been increasing security measures at all of its       
      ports of entry * including those along the Canadian border * since      
      9/11. By harmonizing their border-security policies, the United States  
      and Canada hope to exploit North America*s natural geographic           
      advantage of being flanked by two oceans and ensure that trade is not   
      impeded by enhanced U.S. security. If threats can be stopped in places  
      like airports and seaports, where security forces can be concentrated,  
      there is less of a need to spread them thin along a 5,000-mile border.  
                                                                              
      Canada, U.S.: Defining a North American Defense Perimeter               
      (click here to enlarge image)                                           
                                                                              
      According to a Dec. 10 report in the Vancouver Sun, extra U.S. border   
      security has cost Canadian manufacturers the equivalent of 2 percent    
      to 3 percent of total trade revenue, or about $400 million to $700      
      million (the United States received nearly 75 percent of Canada*s       
      exports in 2009, according to the U.S. Census Bureau). The Canadian     
      Chamber of Commerce report suggests that integrating U.S. and Canadian  
      security measures could relieve the financial stress enhanced U.S.      
      security has placed on Canadian manufacturers.                          
                                                                              
      This is where cross-border relations, along with the job of the Beyond  
      the Border Working Group, get more complicated. The U.S.-Canadian       
      relationship is not an equal one. Unlike the European Union, which has  
      close border collaboration within the Schengen zone, the disparity in   
      power between Canada and the United States is immense. Canadians are    
      concerned that extending the security perimeter around all of North     
      America will erode Canada*s sovereignty. The United States will         
      essentially have veto power on border legislation and could in the      
      future raise concerns about visa regulations as well as immigration.    
      Considering that border management is one of the pillars of modern      
      nation-state sovereignty, it is not surprising that many Canadians are  
      worried about American pressure to cooperate on security policy.        
      However, with so much of the Canadian economy dependent on trade with   
      the United States * Canadian exports to America make up nearly 17       
      percent of Canada*s gross domestic product * Canadians also realize     
      they have very little room for maneuver.                                
                                                                              
      The issue is further complicated by the current government in Ottawa.   
      Stephen Harper is considered one of the most pro-U.S. prime ministers   
      in recent memory. However, he has also campaigned on the principle of   
      extending Canada*s sovereignty into the Arctic. On the issue of a       
      joint U.S.-Canadian security perimeter, his emphasis on Canadian        
      sovereignty could become an issue with both supporters and detractors.  
                                                                              
      Ultimately, Canada*s choices are constrained by U.S. security           
      concerns. As the United States remains wary of goods and people coming  
      over its borders and as Canada tries to maintain dominion over its      
      territory, both countries will have to carefully balance the critical   
      issues of defense, trade and sovereignty.                               
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 13, 2010 3:34:06 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Dispatch: Intersection of Iranian Domestic and Foreign Policies

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Dispatch: Intersection of Iranian Domestic and Foreign Policies          
                                                                              
      December 13, 2010 | 2124 GMT                                            
      Click on image below to watch video:                                    
      [IMG]                                                                   
                                                                              
      Analyst Kamran Bokhari discusses the firing of Iran*s foreign minister  
      and how the move illustrates the Iranian president*s ability to steer   
      through domestic opposition and push his foreign policy agenda.         
                                                                              
      Editor*s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition       
      technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete         
      accuracy.                                                               
                                                                              
      Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad fired his foreign minister,       
      Manouchehr Mottaki, at a time when Iran is engaged with intense         
      nuclear negotiations. The firing of the foreign minister is evidence    
      of a simmering internal power struggle that has the ability to impact   
      the Islamic republic*s negotiations with the West.                      
                                                                              
      Mottaki was actually abroad in Senegal when he was fired by the         
      president, and that*s very significant in that it tells us that not     
      only is this the result of an internal power struggle, but it*s also a  
      very abrupt measure. And we know that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been      
      engaged in trying to bypass the foreign ministry by appointing key      
      people in advisory positions and making use of the National Security    
      Council to make foreign policy. Ahmadinejad faces opposition from       
      across the entire political establishment in Tehran. There are people   
      in various institutions within various factions that support the        
      president, and then there are people in those same institutions and     
      same factions that oppose the president. This makes the president*s     
      job of policymaking and governance very difficult. It constrains him    
      far beyond what a normal Iranian president would face from the          
      byzantine structure that is the Islamic republic. So therefore,         
      Ahmadinejad has had to navigate through this complex swamp in a very    
      skillful way to not only maintain power, but also to push ahead his     
      policy agenda.                                                          
                                                                              
      That the firing of the foreign minister comes within days of the        
      nuclear talks between the West and Iran suggests that there is some     
      significant tension within the establishment. We know that over the     
      past year, the supreme leader and Ahmadinejad have been at odds over    
      the proposed uranium swapping deal that the West has been offering      
      Iran. Ahmadinejad accepted it in the talks that were held over a year   
      ago last October in 2009. Shortly thereafter, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei    
      came out and rejected it very publicly. So if we go by that and we      
      look at the way the foreign minister has been removed, it appears as    
      though Ahmadinejad was facing a lot of opposition to any negotiation    
      that he was conducting with the West from certain very powerful         
      quarters, and in order to bypass those quarters, he went ahead and      
      removed the foreign minister. If you look at the person who has         
      replaced him, he is, or at least was until today, the head of the       
      Atomic Energy Organization of Iran and someone who has worked closely   
      with the president in recent years.                                     
                                                                              
      Today*s move to oust a foreign minister who has been in his Cabinet     
      since day one speaks volumes about how Ahmadinejad is willing to take   
      risks to push his agenda and to be able to navigate and maintain his    
      position as president and head of state. Will he be successful? It*s    
      too early to say. The game is not over, in fact, I think the game has   
      just begun.                                                             
                                                                              
      Click for more videos                                                   
                                                                              
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      Not For Publication                                                     
                                                                              
      This report may be forwarded or republished on your website with        
      attribution to www.stratfor.com                                         
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      (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 13, 2010 4:17:23 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Another Shift in Egypt's Presidential Succession Plan

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Another Shift in Egypt's Presidential Succession Plan                    
                                                                              
      December 13, 2010 | 2111 GMT                                            
      Another Shift in Egypt's Presidential Succession Plan                   
      KHALED DESOUKI/AFP/Getty Images                                         
      Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak at a summit in Sirte, Libya, on Oct.   
      10, 2010                                                                
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      A new consensus presidential candidate is emerging in Egypt as a        
      possible successor to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. Mubarak*s       
      plans to transfer power to his son, Gamal, have run into stiff          
      resistance from the old guard in the military and the ruling National   
      Democratic Party. In this latest variation to the succession plan,      
      former air force chief and current minister of civil aviation Ahmed     
      Shafiq is being presented as a potential bridge between Egypt*s old     
      and new guard.                                                          
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      A STRATFOR source in Egypt*s diplomatic corps has reported a recent     
      shift in Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak*s plan to eventually have     
      his son, Gamal, succeed him, a plan that is intended to bridge a        
      growing chasm between the old and new guard elite in Egypt.             
                                                                              
      Indeed, the Nov. 28 and Dec. 5 parliamentary elections brought to       
      light deepening fissures within Egypt*s ruling circle over Mubarak*s    
      succession strategy. The ruling National Democratic Party (NDP)         
      trounced the opposition as expected, but the elections put the NDP in   
      the uncomfortable position of trying to legitimize an election that     
      was widely believed to have been marred with irregularities and         
      designed to keep a tight lid on opposition contenders, such as those    
      from the Muslim Brotherhood or Mohamed ElBaradei*s National Assembly    
      for Change. After the elections, prominent members of the old guard,    
      led by NDP Secretary-General Safwat al-Sharif, publicly criticized the  
      manner in which the elections were conducted and warned that such       
      irregularities would adversely affect Egypt*s foreign relations. The    
      criticism does not stem from any newfound desire on the part of the     
      old guard to develop a more pluralistic political system; rather, it    
      was a tool used to publicly voice opposition to Mubarak*s plans for     
      the new government and to demonstrate the growing rift within the       
      ruling elite. The implicit warning was that the longer the president    
      allows these divisions to simmer, the more opposition groups will be    
      galvanized to exploit these rifts and stage a meaningful challenge to   
      the president in a tense election year.                                 
                                                                              
      Mubarak is 82 years old and facing health complications. As such, he    
      has long been trying to shape a plan to have his son Gamal eventually   
      assume control of the presidency. This plan encountered resistance      
      during the past year, as stalwart members of Egypt*s old guard in the   
      military and the NDP made clear that they disapproved of the new        
      guard*s call for a more liberal economic model and would not support    
      Gamal becoming president. Mubarak then adjusted his plans to have his   
      closest adviser and Egypt*s intelligence chief, Omar Suleiman, become   
      vice president and then succeed Mubarak when he is no longer able to    
      rule. According to this plan, Suleiman was expected to remain           
      president for roughly one year before passing power to Gamal. To        
      further ease the transition, Mubarak then publicly indicated that he    
      himself would run for re-election in the summer of 2011 while making    
      arrangements for Suleiman to take over should he become incapacitated.  
      However, this plan has also proven unsatisfactory to the military       
      elite.                                                                  
                                                                              
      Though Suleiman is a powerful figure in Egypt and has long been         
      thought of as the most likely consensus candidate to succeed Mubarak,   
      concerns persist among the old guard that Suleiman*s tenure would be    
      short-lived given his old age and alleged health problems. These old    
      guard members would prefer one of their own from the military to        
      succeed Mubarak, one who would have the staying power to stave off a    
      transition to Gamal. Mubarak*s replacement candidate for Suleiman (at   
      least for now) appears to be former air force chief and current         
      minister of civil aviation Ahmed Shafiq. Shafiq has a close             
      relationship with the president (he worked under Mubarak*s command      
      when Mubarak led the Egyptian air force in the 1970s). According to a   
      STRATFOR source, Mubarak*s decision to appoint Shafiq as the minister   
      of civil aviation in 2002 was a sign that Shafiq was being groomed for  
      a more serious position, as most Egyptian generals do not typically     
      get the opportunity to acquire civilian experience in the government.   
      Such civilian experience enhances the credibility of a retired general  
      if and when he is appointed to a more senior political office. As The   
      Wall Street Journal reported in a Dec. 10 article citing diplomatic     
      sources, a column by the editor-in-chief of state-owned Mussawar        
      magazine highlighting Shafiq*s credentials was a good indication that   
      conditions are being prepped for Shafiq to enter the political          
      limelight.                                                              
                                                                              
      As the past several months have shown, Egypt*s succession plans are     
      subject to frequent modifications. Amidst all the adjustments, though,  
      a single trend is becoming more apparent: The old guard,                
      well-represented in the military, is becoming increasingly influential  
      in political civilian matters as Mubarak nears the end of his           
      presidency.                                                             
                                                                              
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      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 13, 2010 5:06:30 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Mexico Security Memo: Dec. 13, 2010

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Mexico Security Memo: Dec. 13, 2010                                      
                                                                              
      December 13, 2010 | 2150 GMT                                            
                                                                              
      Mexico Security Memo: Dec. 13, 2010                                     
                                                                              
       A Near Miss for El Chapo?                                              
                                                                              
      Mexican media reported Dec. 13 that Sinaloa Federation leader Joaquin   
      *El Chapo* Guzman Loera may have narrowly escaped a Mexican army raid   
      on a party the night of Dec. 10-11 in the Campestre neighborhood of     
      Delicias, Chihuahua state. El Diario cites unofficial, unidentified     
      sources as saying Guzman was attending the party, and El Digital        
      reports the operation was targeting him but that units from the 5th     
      military zone that first arrived on the scene were ordered to wait for  
      backup from the 42nd military zone before they could initiate the       
      raid.                                                                   
                                                                              
      This hesitation may have allowed Guzman to flee, though there also is   
      no confirmation, only statements by unnamed sources, that he was even   
      present at the party. The El Digital sources said the order to wait     
      was given so the 42nd zone could share credit for the capture, which    
      indicates that the hesitation was not due to lack of firepower *        
      making it an unusual order, given the target*s value.                   
                                                                              
      The raid did lead to the wounding and capture of Enrique *El Cumbias*   
      Lopez Acosta, the head of Sinaloa*s Gente Nueva enforcement arm, who    
      has been heavily involved in Sinaloa*s battles against the Juarez       
      cartel*s La Linea group. After the raid, Lopez was taken to a Delicias  
      hospital, which military forces locked down during his treatment (all   
      patients were temporarily denied access to the hospital, and Rio        
      Conchos Avenue was closed down), a standard procedure for Mexican       
      security forces attempting to prevent counterattacks by                 
      drug-trafficking enforcement arms. He was released from the hospital    
      later the same day and taken to a prison in Delicias.                   
                                                                              
      Mexican authorities have had few opportunities to apprehend Guzman      
      since he escaped from prison in 2001. This lack of security attention,  
      coupled with comparatively debilitating government pressure on other    
      drug-trafficking organizations such as Los Zetas and the Gulf Cartel,   
      has led to the theory that the Mexican government has chosen the        
      Sinaloa Federation as the base for an alliance of cartels with which    
      it can negotiate.                                                       
                                                                              
      If Guzman*s presence at the party is confirmed, the assessment of this  
      theorized tacit agreement with Sinaloa could come into question.        
      Conversely, if the report of the military*s being forced to wait        
      before conducting the raid is true, it could provide evidence of such   
      favoritism.                                                             
                                                                              
       Another Blow to La Familia Michoacana                                  
                                                                              
      Mexican national security spokesman Alejandro Poire confirmed Dec. 10   
      that the spiritual leader of La Familia Michoacana (LFM), Nazario *El   
      Chayo* Moreno Gonzalez, was killed in a Dec. 9 clash with security      
      forces in Apatzingan, Michoacan state. Moreno*s death came amid a       
      two-daylong firefight that began Dec. 8 when Mexican security forces    
      began moving into the city. At least two to three civilians were        
      reported killed in gun battles on the night of Dec. 8-9, and one of     
      these battles is believed to have killed Moreno. LFM retaliated Dec. 9  
      by closing five roads in the state*s capital, Morelia. Mexican          
      security operations continued Dec. 10, with authorities announcing      
      that five members of its security forces had been killed.               
                                                                              
      Following the announcement of Moreno*s death, the government of         
      Apatzingan called for its citizens to march for peace and protest       
      against the presence of federal forces in the area. The march           
      essentially turned into a rally in support of Moreno, complete with     
      pro-Moreno signs, banners and chants. The marches continued into the    
      evening of Dec. 12. Mexican authorities have previously * and           
      apparently erroneously * reported Moreno*s capture, in both 2008 and    
      2009, but the public response to this most recent operation suggests    
      that this time Mexican security officials got their target.             
                                                                              
      Moreno*s purported death is yet another blow to the struggling LFM.     
      Between government security operations targeting its leaders and        
      attacks from rival cartels such as Los Zetas, LFM has seen its power    
      wane over the past year.                                                
                                                                              
      Mexico Security Memo: Dec. 13, 2010                                     
      (click here to view interactive map)                                    
                                                                              
         Dec. 6                                                               
                                                                              
        * Police in Tepeji del Rio, Hidalgo state, seized a suspected         
          methamphetamine lab and arrested six suspects.                      
        * The dismembered body of a woman was discovered in the Valle de Los  
          Reyes neighborhood of Los Reyes de la Paz, Mexico state. The        
          victim*s body was discovered in several plastic bags and a box.     
        * Unidentified gunmen shot and killed two people in the Burocratas    
          Municipales neighborhood of Monterrey, Nuevo Leon state. A third    
          person was injured in the attack.                                   
                                                                              
         Dec. 7                                                               
                                                                              
        * A decapitated body bearing a message from an unidentified criminal  
          group was discovered in Nezahualcoyotl, Mexico state.               
        * Soldiers arrested three suspected criminals during a patrol in      
          Sabinas Hidalgo, Nuevo Leon state.                                  
        * Soldiers arrested two police officers in Tepoztlan, Morelos state,  
          for allegedly spying on military activities at the behest of        
          drug-trafficking cartels. The two officers were later freed.        
                                                                              
         Dec. 8                                                               
                                                                              
        * Soldiers arrested eight suspected members of Los Zetas at an        
          unspecified location in San Luis Potosi state.                      
        * Two people, including an infant, were killed in a firefight         
          between police and suspected gunmen from LFM in Apatzingan,         
          Michoacan state.                                                    
                                                                              
         Dec. 9                                                               
                                                                              
        * Unidentified gunmen set a truck on fire near a military garrison    
          in Zitacuaro, Michoacan state.                                      
        * Police seized 97 kilograms (about 210 pounds) of marijuana from a   
          packing firm in the municipality of Zapopan, Jalisco state.         
        * The body of an unidentified man was discovered in Ecatepec, Mexico  
          state. The victim had been shot in the head and chest, and his      
          hands and feet were bound.                                          
        * Unidentified attackers set a gas station on fire in the             
          Manantiales neighborhood of Morelia, Michoacan state.               
                                                                              
         Dec. 10                                                              
                                                                              
        * Unidentified gunmen kidnapped a teacher from his house in Sonoyta,  
          Sonora state.                                                       
        * Soldiers seized approximately 1.2 tons of marijuana from a          
          residence in Tijuana, Baja California state.                        
        * Thirteen people were killed and approximately 30 were injured       
          during a firefight between two groups of suspected criminals in     
          Tecalitlan, Jalisco state.                                          
                                                                              
         Dec. 11                                                              
                                                                              
        * Unidentified gunmen shot and killed a policeman as he drove a       
          patrol car in San Nicolas de los Garza, Nuevo Leon state.           
        * Security forces searching for a kidnap victim in Sonoyta, Sonora    
          state, discovered five bodies.                                      
        * Authorities announced the arrest of Rene Aranda Reynol Rodriguez,   
          the chief of Los Zetas for the municipality of Guadalupe, Nuevo     
          Leon state. The suspect was arrested at a residence along with      
          eight suspected associates. Four kidnap victims were freed in the   
          operation.                                                          
                                                                              
         Dec. 12                                                              
                                                                              
        * The decapitated and dismembered bodies of three men were hung from  
          a bridge in Tunzingo, Guerrero state. The victims* arms and the     
          skin from their faces were discovered on the roadway of the         
          bridge.                                                             
        * Two men were shot and injured by an unidentified gunman at a bar    
          in Monterrey, Nuevo Leon state.                                     
        * The bodies of four men were found along a road in the municipality  
          of Tepecoacuilco, Guerrero state. The victims had been shot to      
          death.                                                              
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 13, 2010 5:47:24 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: A New South African Ambassador to Angola?

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     A New South African Ambassador to Angola?                                
                                                                              
      December 13, 2010 | 2339 GMT                                            
      A New South African Ambassador to Angola?                               
      MANPREET ROMANA/AFP/Getty Images                                        
      South African National Defense Forces chief Gen. Godfrey Ngwenya (L)    
      visits Indian Naval Staff chief Adm. Arun Prakash in New Delhi in 2006  
                                                                              
      A STRATFOR source in South Africa has reported that President Jacob     
      Zuma is on the verge of appointing Gen. Godfrey Ngwenya, chief of the   
      South African National Defense Force (SANDF), as Pretoria*s new         
      permanent ambassador to Angola. Ngwenya has been employed with the      
      SANDF since its creation in 1994 and has been leading it since taking   
      over for Siphiwe Nyanda in 2005. South African media reported that he   
      was due to retire from the SANDF in April but stayed on through the     
      year. While there has been no public announcement that Ngwenya is on    
      the verge of leaving, the source says he is already being briefed for   
      his new ambassadorial position at the Department of International       
      Relations and Cooperation. The SANDF*s current Chief of Joint           
      Operations, Lt. Gen. T.T. Mantanzima, is expected to take Ngwenya*s     
      place.                                                                  
                                                                              
      Ngwenya is no stranger to Angola. He spent 10 years there during the    
      struggle against apartheid, harbored by Angola*s ruling Popular         
      Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) from 1979-88, working for  
      the armed wing of the African National Congress (ANC), Umkhonto we      
      Sizwe (MK), under the code name of Timothy Mkoena. By 1984, he was      
      commander of all MK forces in Angola, but he was forced to relinquish   
      his post three years later after being wounded by rebels from the       
      National Union for the Total Liberation of Angola (UNITA).              
                                                                              
      South Africa has not had a permanent ambassador in place in Angola      
      since December 2009, only a charge d*affaires, so Ngwenya*s             
      appointment is significant. The fact that South Africa lacks an         
      ambassador in Luanda is not necessarily indicative of any strains in    
      the two countries* relationship; both have maintained high-level        
      contacts since Zuma*s ascension to power in April 2009. Zuma chose      
      Angola as the location for his first state visit as president, and has  
      repeatedly dispatched top personal envoys when he has needed to         
      negotiate or discuss issues of importance with Luanda. State Security   
      Minister Siyabonga Cwele, Energy Minister Dipuo Peters and South        
      Africa*s head of defense intelligence, Lt. Gen. Abel Mxolisi            
      Shilubane, have all made visits to Angola, for example. Beginning Dec.  
      14, Angolan President Eduardo dos Santos will make his first-ever       
      state visit to South Africa, in a rare foreign trip for a leader not    
      fond of leaving the confines of Luanda.                                 
                                                                              
      In selecting a military man like Ngwenya, who has likely maintained     
      close personal links to several high-ranking MPLA military officials    
      in the years since he left Angola, the Zuma government is displaying    
      that it ascribes a high value to its building its economic, political   
      and military relations with a country the previous apartheid regime     
      tried to invade multiple times in the 1970s and 1980s. Zuma also is     
      sending an individual he most likely trusts personally, as the two      
      probably crossed paths during their time in exile (Zuma, who was head   
      of ANC intelligence during the struggle, also spent years in Angola,    
      though he is reticent to divulge many details about his time there).    
      The fact that Luanda also probably has a fair amount of trust in        
      Ngwenya, thanks to his days as an MK regional leader, helps his resume  
      as well.                                                                
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 14, 2010 4:04:02 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Geopolitical Weekly : Taking Stock of WikiLeaks

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Taking Stock of WikiLeaks                                                
                                                                              
      December 14, 2010                                                       
                                                                              
      Germany and the Failure of Multiculturalism                             
                                                                              
      By George Friedman                                                      
                                                                              
      Julian Assange has declared that geopolitics will be separated into     
      pre-*Cablegate* and post-*Cablegate* eras. That was a bold claim.       
      However, given the intense interest that the leaks produced, it is a    
      claim that ought to be carefully considered. Several weeks have passed  
      since the first of the diplomatic cables were released, and it is time  
      now to address the following questions: First, how significant were     
      the leaks? Second, how could they have happened? Third, was their       
      release a crime? Fourth, what were their consequences? Finally, and     
      most important, is the WikiLeaks premise that releasing government      
      secrets is a healthy and appropriate act a tenable position?            
                                                                              
      Let*s begin by recalling that the U.S. State Department documents       
      constituted the third wave of leaks. The first two consisted of         
      battlefield reports from Iraq and Afghanistan. Looking back on those    
      as a benchmark, it is difficult to argue that they revealed             
      information that ran counter to informed opinion. I use the term        
      *informed opinion* deliberately. For someone who was watching Iraq and  
      Afghanistan with some care over the previous years, the leaks might     
      have provided interesting details but they would not have provided any  
      startling distinction between the reality that was known and what was   
      revealed. If, on the other hand, you weren*t paying close attention,    
      and WikiLeaks provided your first and only view of the battlefields in  
      any detail, you might have been surprised.                              
                                                                              
      Let*s consider the most controversial revelation, one of the tens of    
      thousands of reports released on Iraq and Afghanistan and one in which  
      a video indicated that civilians were deliberately targeted by U.S.     
      troops. The first point, of course, is that the insurgents, in          
      violation of the 1949 Geneva Conventions, did not go into combat        
      wearing armbands or other distinctive clothing to distinguish           
      themselves from non-combatants. The Geneva Conventions have always      
      been adamant on this requirement because they regarded combatants       
      operating under the cover of civilians as being responsible for         
      putting those civilians in harm*s way, not the uniformed troops who     
      were forced to distinguish between combatants and non-combatants when   
      the combatants deliberately chose to act in violation of the Geneva     
      Conventions.                                                            
                                                                              
      It follows from this that such actions against civilians are            
      inevitable in the kind of war Iraqi insurgents chose to wage.           
      Obviously, this particular event has to be carefully analyzed, but in   
      a war in which combatants blend with non-combatants, civilian           
      casualties will occur, and so will criminal actions by uniformed        
      troops. Hundreds of thousands of troops have fought in Iraq, and the    
      idea that criminal acts would be absent is absurd. What is most         
      startling is not the presence of potentially criminal actions but       
      their scarcity. Anyone who has been close to combat or who has read     
      histories of World War II would be struck not by the presence of war    
      crimes but by the fact that in all the WikiLeaks files so few           
      potential cases are found. War is controlled violence, and when         
      controls fail * as they inevitably do * uncontrolled and potentially    
      criminal violence occurs. However, the case cited by WikiLeaks with     
      much fanfare did not clearly show criminal actions on the part of       
      American troops as much as it did the consequences of the insurgents    
      violating the Geneva Conventions.                                       
                                                                              
      Only those who were not paying attention to the fact that there was a   
      war going on, or who had no understanding of war, or who wanted to      
      pretend to be shocked for political reasons, missed two crucial         
      points: It was the insurgents who would be held responsible for         
      criminal acts under the Geneva Conventions for posing as                
      non-combatants, and there were extraordinarily few cases of potential   
      war crimes that were contained in the leaks.                            
                                                                              
      The diplomatic leaks are similar. There is precious little that was     
      revealed that was unknown to the informed observer. For example,        
      anyone reading STRATFOR knows we have argued that it was not only the   
      Israelis but also the Saudis that were most concerned about Iranian     
      power and most insistent that the United States do something about it.  
      While the media treated this as a significant revelation, it required   
      a profound lack of understanding of the geopolitics of the Persian      
      Gulf to regard U.S. diplomatic cables on the subject as surprising.     
                                                                              
      U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates* statement in the leaks that the    
      Saudis were always prepared to fight to the last American was           
      embarrassing, in the sense that Gates would have to meet with Saudi     
      leaders in the future and would do so with them knowing what he thinks  
      of them. Of course, the Saudis are canny politicians and diplomats and  
      they already knew how the American leadership regarded their demands.   
                                                                              
      There were other embarrassments also known by the informed observer.    
      Almost anyone who worries about such things is aware that Italian       
      Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is close to the Russians and likes to  
      party with young women. The latest batch of leaks revealed that the     
      American diplomatic service was also aware of this. And now Berlusconi  
      is aware that they know of these things, which will make it hard for    
      diplomats to pretend that they don*t know of these things. Of course,   
      Berlusconi was aware that everyone knew of these things and clearly     
      didn*t care, since the charges were all over Italian media.             
                                                                              
      I am not cherry-picking the Saudi or Italian memos. The consistent      
      reality of the leaks is that they do not reveal anything new to the     
      informed but do provide some amusement over certain comments, such as   
      Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Dmitri Medvedev     
      being called *Batman and Robin.* That*s amusing, but it isn*t           
      significant. Amusing and interesting but almost never significant is    
      what I come away with having read through all three waves of leaks.     
                                                                              
      Obviously, the leaks are being used by foreign politicians to their     
      own advantage. For example, the Russians feigned shock that NATO would  
      be reassuring the Balts about defense against a potential Russian       
      invasion or the Poles using the leaks to claim that solid U.S.-Polish   
      relations are an illusion. The Russians know well of NATO plans for     
      defending the Baltic states against a hypothetical Russian invasion,    
      and the Poles know equally well that U.S.-Polish relations are complex  
      but far from illusory. The leaks provide an opportunity for feigning    
      shock and anger and extracting possible minor concessions or            
      controlling atmospherics. They do not, however, change the structure    
      of geopolitics.                                                         
                                                                              
      Indeed, U.S. diplomats come away looking sharp, insightful and decent.  
      While their public statements after a conference may be vacuous, it is  
      encouraging to see that their read of the situation and of foreign      
      leaders is unsentimental and astute. Everything from memos on senior    
      leaders to anonymous snippets from apparently junior diplomats not      
      only are on target (in the sense that STRATFOR agrees with them) but    
      are also well-written and clear. I would argue that the leaks paint a   
      flattering picture overall of the intellect of U.S. officials without   
      revealing, for the most part, anything particularly embarrassing.       
                                                                              
      At the same time, there were snarky and foolish remarks in some of the  
      leaks, particularly personal comments about leaders and sometimes       
      their families that were unnecessarily offensive. Some of these will    
      damage diplomatic careers, most generated a good deal of personal       
      tension and none of their authors will likely return to the countries   
      in which they served. Much was indeed unprofessional, but the task of   
      a diplomat is to provide a sense of place in its smallest details, and  
      none expect their observations ever to be seen by the wrong people.     
      Nor do nations ever shift geopolitical course over such insults, not    
      in the long run. These personal insults were by far the most            
      significant embarrassments to be found in the latest release. Personal  
      tension is not, however, international tension.                         
                                                                              
      This raises the question of why diplomats can*t always simply state     
      their minds rather than publicly mouth preposterous platitudes. It      
      could be as simple as this: My son was a terrible pianist. He           
      completely lacked talent. After his recitals at age 10, I would         
      pretend to be enthralled. He knew he was awful and he knew I knew he    
      was awful, but it was appropriate that I not admit what I knew. It is   
      called politeness and sometimes affection. There is rarely affection    
      among nations, but politeness calls for behaving differently when a     
      person is in the company of certain other people than when that person  
      is with colleagues talking about those people. This is the simplest of  
      human rules. Not admitting what you know about others is the            
      foundation of civilization. The same is true among diplomats and        
      nations.                                                                
                                                                              
      And in the end, this is all I found in the latest WikiLeaks release: a  
      great deal of information about people who aren*t American that others  
      certainly knew and were aware that the Americans knew, and now they     
      have all seen it in writing. It would take someone who truly doesn*t    
      understand how geopolitics really works to think that this would make   
      a difference. Some diplomats may wind up in other postings, and         
      perhaps some careers will be ended. But the idea that this would        
      somehow change the geopolitics of our time is really hard to fathom. I  
      have yet to see Assange point to something so significant that that it  
      would justify his claim. It may well be that the United States is       
      hiding secrets that would reveal it to be monstrous. If so, it is not   
      to be found in what has been released so far.                           
                                                                              
      There is, of course, the question of whether states should hold         
      secrets, which is at the root of the WikiLeaks issue. Assange claims    
      that by revealing these secrets WikiLeaks is doing a service. His       
      ultimate maxim, as he has said on several occasions, is that if money   
      and resources are being spent on keeping something secret, then the     
      reasons must be insidious. Nations have secrets for many reasons, from  
      protecting a military or intelligence advantage to seeking some         
      advantage in negotiations to, at times, hiding nefarious plans. But it  
      is difficult to imagine a state * or a business or a church * acting    
      without confidentiality. Imagine that everything you wrote and said in  
      an attempt to figure out a problem was made public? Every stupid idea   
      that you discarded or clueless comment you expressed would now be       
      pinned on you. But more than that, when you argue that nations should   
      engage in diplomacy rather than war, taking away privacy makes          
      diplomacy impossible. If what you really think of the guy on the other  
      side of the table is made public, how can diplomacy work?               
                                                                              
      This is the contradiction at the heart of the WikiLeaks project. Given  
      what I have read Assange saying, he seems to me to be an opponent of    
      war and a supporter of peace. Yet what he did in leaking these          
      documents, if the leaking did anything at all, is make diplomacy more   
      difficult. It is not that it will lead to war by any means; it is       
      simply that one cannot advocate negotiations and then demand that       
      negotiators be denied confidentiality in which to conduct their         
      negotiations. No business could do that, nor could any other            
      institution. Note how vigorously WikiLeaks hides the inner workings of  
      its own organization, from how it is funded to the people it employs.   
                                                                              
      Assange*s claims are made even more interesting in terms of his         
      *thermonuclear* threat. Apparently there are massive files that will    
      be revealed if any harm comes to him. Implicit is the idea that they    
      will not be revealed if he is unharmed * otherwise the threat makes no  
      sense. So, Assange*s position is that he has secrets and will keep      
      them secret if he is not harmed. I regard this as a perfectly           
      reasonable and plausible position. One of the best uses for secrets is  
      to control what the other side does to you. So Assange is absolutely    
      committed to revealing the truth unless it serves his interests not     
      to, in which case the public has no need to know.                       
                                                                              
      It is difficult to see what harm the leaks have done, beyond            
      embarrassment. It is also difficult to understand why WikiLeaks thinks  
      it has changed history or why Assange lacks a sufficient sense of       
      irony not to see the contradiction between his position on openness     
      and his willingness to keep secrets when they benefit him. But there    
      is also something important here, which is how this all was leaked in   
      the first place.                                                        
                                                                              
      To begin that explanation, we have to go back to 9/11 and the feeling   
      in its aftermath that the failure of various government entities to     
      share information contributed to the disaster. The answer was to share  
      information so that intelligence analysts could draw intelligence from  
      all sources in order to connect the dots. Intelligence organizations    
      hate sharing information because it makes vast amounts of information   
      vulnerable. Compartmentalization makes it hard to connect dots, but it  
      also makes it harder to have a WikiLeaks release. The tension between   
      intelligence and security is eternal, and there will never be a clear   
      solution.                                                               
                                                                              
      The real issue is who had access to this mass of files and what         
      controls were put on them. Did the IT department track all external     
      drives or e-mails? One of the reasons to be casual is that this was     
      information that was classified secret and below, with the vast         
      majority being at the confidential, no-foreign-distribution level.      
      This information was not considered highly sensitive by the U.S.        
      government. Based on the latest trove, it is hard to figure out how     
      the U.S. government decides to classify material. But it has to be      
      remembered that given their level of classification these files did     
      not have the highest security around them because they were not seen    
      as highly sensitive.                                                    
                                                                              
      Still, a crime occurred. According to the case of Daniel Ellsberg, who  
      gave a copy of the Pentagon Papers on Vietnam to a New York Times       
      reporter, it is a crime for someone with a security clearance to        
      provide classified material for publication but not a crime for a       
      publisher to publish it, or so it has become practice since the         
      Ellsberg case. Legal experts can debate the nuances, but this has been  
      the practice for almost 40 years. The bright line is whether the        
      publisher in any way encouraged or participated in either the theft of  
      the information or in having it passed on to him. In the Ellsberg       
      case, he handed it to reporters without them even knowing what it was.  
      Assange has been insisting that he was the passive recipient of         
      information that he had nothing to do with securing.                    
                                                                              
      Now it is interesting whether the sheer existence of WikiLeaks          
      constituted encouragement or conspiracy with anyone willing to pass on  
      classified information to him. But more interesting by far is the       
      sequence of events that led a U.S. Army private first class not only    
      to secure the material but to know where to send it and how to get it   
      there. If Pfc. Bradley Manning conceived and executed the theft by      
      himself, and gave the information to WikiLeaks unprompted, Assange is   
      clear. But anyone who assisted Manning or encouraged him is probably    
      guilty of conspiracy, and if Assange knew what was being done, he is    
      probably guilty, too. There was talk about some people at MIT helping   
      Manning. Unscrambling the sequence is what the Justice Department is    
      undoubtedly doing now. Assange cannot be guilty of treason, since he    
      isn*t a U.S. citizen. But he could be guilty of espionage. His best     
      defense will be that he can*t be guilty of espionage because the        
      material that was stolen was so trivial.                                
                                                                              
      I have no idea whether or when he got involved in the acquisition of    
      the material. I do know * given the material leaked so far * that       
      there is little beyond minor embarrassments contained within it.        
      Therefore, Assange*s claim that geopolitics has changed is as false as  
      it is bold. Whether he committed any crime, including rape, is          
      something I have no idea about. What he is clearly guilty of is         
      hyperbole. But contrary to what he intended, he did do a service to     
      the United States. New controls will be placed on the kind of           
      low-grade material he published. Secretary of Defense Gates made the    
      following point on this:                                                
                                                                              
        *Now, I*ve heard the impact of these releases on our foreign policy   
        described as a meltdown, as a game-changer, and so on. I think those  
        descriptions are fairly significantly overwrought. The fact is,       
        governments deal with the United States because it*s in their         
        interest, not because they like us, not because they trust us, and    
        not because they believe we can keep secrets. Many governments *      
        some governments * deal with us because they fear us, some because    
        they respect us, most because they need us. We are still              
        essentially, as has been said before, the indispensable nation.*      
                                                                              
        *Is this embarrassing? Yes. Is it awkward? Yes. Consequences for      
        U.S. foreign policy? I think fairly modest.*                          
                                                                              
      I don*t like to give anyone else the final word, but in this case       
      Robert Gates* view is definitive. One can pretend that WikiLeaks has    
      redefined geopolitics, but it hasn*t come close.                        
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 14, 2010 5:41:20 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Iran Tries to Balance Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy

      [IMG]                                                                   
                                                                              
      Monday, December 13, 2010      [IMG] STRATFOR.COM [IMG] Diary Archives  
                                                                              
            Iran Tries to Balance Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy        
                                                                              
      Monday was clearly an Iran day. It began with President Mahmoud         
      Ahmadinejad firing the country*s foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki,  
      who has served as Tehran*s top diplomat since Ahmadinejad began his     
      first term more than five years ago. As STRATFOR was trying to make     
      sense of Ahmadinejad*s seemingly abrupt decision to fire Mottaki, U.S.  
      Secretary of State Hillary Clinton issued a statement saying that the   
      nuclear negotiations between the Islamic republic and the P-5+1 Group,  
      which resumed (after more than a year*s gap) in Geneva last week, were  
      off to a *good start* and that the sacking of Mottaki was unlikely to   
      hamper progress in these talks. These two developments point to         
      interesting trends on Iran*s domestic political front, and more         
      importantly, its foreign policy arena, especially the Islamic           
      republic*s complex diplomacy with the United States.                    
                                                                              
      On the domestic front, conventional wisdom has long sought to describe  
      the conflict as between reformists on one hand and hard-line            
      ideologues on the other. Since Ahmadinejad*s rise to power, however,    
      the ground reality has increasingly become much more messy *            
      Ahmadinejad faces opposition from rival (pragmatic) conservative        
      opponents as well as from ultraconservative allies.                     
                                                                              
      **It is not clear that Ahmadinejad can ultimately balance pragmatism    
      on the foreign policy front with the need to placate powerful           
      stakeholders at home who are trying to place limits on his ability to   
      maneuver.*                                                              
                                                                              
      Tehran*s dealings with Washington have become a key battleground where  
      this intra-elite power struggle is being played out. His pragmatic      
      opponents have tried to paint Ahmadinejad as engaged in bellicose       
      foreign policy moves that could lead the country to a ruinous war. At   
      the same time, and paradoxically, the president*s ultraconservative     
      allies have been concerned that the Iranian president is compromising   
      on the country*s strategic interests in trying to steer the country*s   
      negotiations on the nuclear issue.                                      
                                                                              
      It is this latter view that is of more significance, especially if the  
      United States is saying that negotiations are headed in the right       
      direction. The fact that a power-sharing formula in Iraq is on the      
      verge of being finalized attests to such a prospect.                    
                                                                              
      Obviously, nothing is final on either end * Iraq or on the nuclear      
      issue. With regard to the latter, there is supposed to be a follow-up   
      meeting in January in Istanbul, when the nature of a compromise         
      solution that is acceptable to both sides is expected to become         
      clearer. In terms of the former, the thorny subject of the extent of    
      the Sunnis* share of power in Baghdad is still being worked out.        
                                                                              
      Thus far, the key obstacle to the two sides reaching a compromise       
      solution has come to light in terms of Iranian intransigence. In light  
      of the latest developments, however, it appears that, in addition to    
      Tehran wanting to drive a hard bargain, growing domestic schisms will   
      also greatly determine the outcome. Despite his ability to maintain     
      the upper hand at home * especially in the face of so many different    
      types of challenges * it is not clear that Ahmadinejad can ultimately   
      balance pragmatism on the foreign policy front with the need to         
      placate powerful stakeholders at home who are trying to place limits    
      on his ability to maneuver.                                             
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 14, 2010 7:40:09 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: The Paradox of the EU Eastern Partnership

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     The Paradox of the EU Eastern Partnership                                
                                                                              
      December 14, 2010 | 1309 GMT                                            
      The Paradox of the EU Eastern Partnership                               
      GEORGES GOBET/AFP/Getty Images                                          
      European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton (L) and Swedish    
      Foreign Minister Carl Bildt talk on Dec. 13                             
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      Brussels hosted a foreign minister-level summit of the European         
      Union*s Eastern Partnership on Dec. 13. The program, designed to        
      strengthen the union*s ties to former Soviet states on its periphery *  
      particularly Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova * was started by Sweden and   
      Poland. It will need support from the European Union*s powerhouses,     
      particularly Germany, in order to fulfill its purpose effectively.      
      However, support from those powers could change the nature of the       
      program.                                                                
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      The European Union*s Eastern Partnership (EP) held a foreign            
      minister-level summit in Brussels on Dec. 13. Representatives from the  
      27 EU member states, the EU Commission, and the target countries of     
      Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan attended.    
      This summit follows a recent push by the two countries that initiated   
      the EP * Poland and Sweden * to reinvigorate the program. The final     
      communique issued at the summit stated that the EP*s future would be a  
      matter of *strategic debate* and that the program*s importance would    
      be emphasized ahead of the EP heads of state summit in Budapest in May  
      2011.                                                                   
                                                                              
      The EP*s purpose is to strengthen the European Union*s ties to the      
      former Soviet states on its periphery (particularly Belarus, Ukraine    
      and Moldova), where Russia*s influence has strengthened in recent       
      years, via soft power. During their EU presidencies in 2011, Hungary    
      and Poland intend to place EP high on their agendas. But there is a     
      paradox to the EP. For it to fulfill its purpose effectively, it must   
      transcend Sweden and Central Europe and receive support from EU         
      heavyweights like France and especially Germany. However, given Paris   
      and Berlin*s warming relations with Moscow, this would make the EP a    
      very different project from what Russia-skeptic Sweden and Poland want  
      it to be. Resolving this incongruity will be the EP*s key challenge in  
      2011.                                                                   
                                                                              
       The Eastern Partnership Thus Far                                       
                                                                              
      Since its inception in May 2009, the EP has been slow to get off the    
      ground and has not met the expectations of those countries who were     
      members at its debut. This is largely because Poland and Sweden were    
      consumed with their domestic political situations throughout much of    
      2009 and 2010 and had little energy and attention to devote to the      
      initiative. In the meantime, Russia * not the EU * has resurged in the  
      target countries, as seen in Belarus* inclusion in a customs union      
      with Russia and Kazakhstan and in pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovich*s       
      victory in Ukraine*s presidential election.                             
                                                                              
      While the EP so far has had little measurable effect, it is important   
      not to underestimate the purpose of the program. It is no secret that   
      the European Union simply cannot compete with Russia*s hard power in    
      these countries. Russia*s military is stationed in Ukraine*s Crimea     
      peninsula and Moldova*s breakaway republic of Transdniestria, while it  
      cooperates extremely closely with Belarus and has the right to deploy   
      its troops in the country under the guidelines of the Collective        
      Security Treaty Organization, which is essentially Russia*s             
      present-day answer to NATO. Additionally, Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine  
      have no desire or intention (excluding some of Moldova*s staunchest     
      pro-European factions) to integrate more closely to Europe militarily.  
                                                                              
      However, issues like visa liberalization and economic aid are           
      important to Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova, and these essentially are    
      what the EP offers. Easing travel restrictions and boosting economic    
      investment and aid * not to mention offering association agreements as  
      precursors to potential EU membership * lays the groundwork for a       
      larger EU presence in these countries. The European Union               
      fundamentally operates under the assumption that making small           
      bureaucratic and legislative decisions can snowball into a greater      
      momentum. A coal-and-steel community evolved for 50 years until it      
      became the European Union. Similarly, working on synchronizing          
      Ukrainian and Moldovan laws with the bloc*s may seem paltry compared    
      to Russia*s military presence in these countries, but in the long-term  
      the EU hopes it will have a significant effect.                         
                                                                              
       The Swedish-Polish Push                                                
                                                                              
      Over the past couple of months, there has been a renewed push for the   
      EP, especially from Poland and Sweden, to emphasize the program*s       
      benefits. Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt and Polish Foreign        
      Minister Radoslaw Sikorski recently visited Ukraine and Moldova to      
      emphasize that the program will be of utmost importance in the near     
      future. Also, Sikorski and German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle    
      traveled to Belarus to meet with President Aleksandr Lukashenko and     
      opposition leaders just ahead of the country*s crucial presidential     
      election scheduled for Dec. 19. Compared to the underwhelming launch    
      of the EP, this recent flurry of visits has certainly caught Moscow*s   
      attention.                                                              
                                                                              
      For the EP to be effective as a tool to expand EU cooperation with the  
      likes of Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova, and to loosen Russia*s grip on   
      these countries, the economic projects put forth by the EP need to be   
      expanded considerably. When Hungary and Poland will hold the rotating   
      EU presidency in 2011, there is a chance for this to occur. Both want   
      to make expanding the program a top priority, and German Chancellor     
      Angela Merkel has told Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk that Germany   
      stands behind Poland*s efforts.                                         
                                                                              
       Germany*s Role                                                         
                                                                              
      But this leads to another potential impediment for the EP. At its       
      core, the EP is an EU initiative. For the EP to succeed in building     
      ties to the target countries it must go beyond what Sweden and Poland   
      have to offer; it must have the financial and economic resources of     
      the European Union*s larger members, such as Italy, France and          
      especially Germany, to be truly effective. But along with German        
      financing and business acumen comes the German political heft that has  
      come to define the EU. And since Berlin-Moscow relations have been      
      strengthening and Germany*s view of Russia is fundamentally different   
      from Poland and Sweden*s, the EP would become less effective in its     
      purpose of challenging Russia*s influence in the target countries.      
                                                                              
      Germany*s role is therefore both necessary and problematic. From        
      Germany*s perspective, the EP is an irksome initiative that could       
      provoke Russia, a valued partner. Germany has no intentions of          
      allowing Ukraine, Moldova or Belarus into the EU any time soon          
      (meaning roughly the next two decades). Berlin wants the EU to          
      concentrate on internal reforms, rather than on enlargement.            
                                                                              
      But at the same time, Germany sees the benefit in having an initiative  
      such as the EP as a potential lever to use against Russia. German       
      participation in the EP can therefore be a signal to Moscow both that   
      Berlin has Russian interests in mind, but that Berlin could encourage   
      bolder EP initiatives if Moscow does not have Berlin*s interests in     
      mind on other matters, such as the energy and economic cooperation      
      that Berlin holds dear. From the perspective of Sweden and Poland,      
      such participation would not really be welcome. A Germany that counts   
      the EP as a tool to use in the overarching German-Russian relationship  
      would serve Berlin*s strategic interests, not Warsaw and Stockholm*s.   
                                                                              
      In essence, the EP has to grow beyond Poland and Sweden to be           
      effective. The Polish government said as much when it announced that    
      the EP would top the agenda of both the Visegrad Group and the Weimar   
      Triangle. But as it becomes more of an EU-wide initiative, more         
      capitals * particularly Berlin * will start deciding what happens with  
      the EP, and the program would lose the focus that Poland and Sweden     
      provide. This is why Merkel*s offer of support to Poland is really a    
      double-edged sword, and why the true test of the EP in 2011 will be     
      the German-Russian relationship.                                        
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 14, 2010 10:52:25 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Europe's Financial Troubles Spread to Belgium, Austria

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Europe's Financial Troubles Spread to Belgium, Austria                   
                                                                              
      December 14, 2010 | 1451 GMT                                            
      Belgium Joins the PIIGS                                                 
      NICOLAS MAETERLINCK/AFP/Getty Images                                    
      National Bank of Belgium Gov. Guy Quaden at a meeting discussing the    
      country*s economic situation in Brussels on Dec. 6                      
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      Standard &amp; Poor*s said Dec. 14 that it likely will downgrade Belgium*s  
      credit rating due to the size of the country*s government debt and      
      budget deficit, along with its inability to form a stable government.   
      The announcement indicates that Europe*s financial woes are spreading   
      from the PIIGS * Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain * to more   
      established economies, particularly Belgium and Austria.                
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
      Related Links                                                           
        * The Recession in Central Europe, Part 1: Armageddon Averted?        
        * U.S.: Redesigning the Bank Bailout                                  
                                                                              
      Standard &amp; Poor*s warned Dec. 14 that Belgium*s mix of high government  
      debt, a high budget deficit and the chronic inability to form a stable  
      government would likely force the ratings agency to downgrade the       
      country*s credit rating (currently at AA+), possibly within six         
      months. Such an event is not yet inevitable, but the mere announcement  
      of the *negative watch* heralds the spread of Europe*s ongoing          
      financial troubles to Europe*s more established states.                 
                                                                              
      Until now nearly all concern for the financial stability of eurozone    
      states has focused on the PIIGS, an acronym investors created to refer  
      to Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain. These states share       
      certain characteristics that include large * and in many cases, popped  
      * bubbles in real estate and finance, high budget deficit and debt      
      levels, and political difficulty in addressing the problems.            
                                                                              
      To this list of states in distress, STRATFOR would like to add two      
      more developed Western European countries: Austria and Belgium, both    
      of which share key negative characteristics of the PIIGS.               
                                                                              
      Belgium is certainly the worse off of the two. It suffers from a        
      residential real estate bubble roughly as bad as Spain*s, roughly half  
      again as bad in relative terms as the U.S. subprime crisis. Belgium*s   
      2009 headline government debt level clocked in at 96 percent of gross   
      domestic product (GDP), 20 percentage points worse than Portugal * the  
      next PIIGS state that STRATFOR expects will need a bailout. But         
      perhaps most important is that modern Belgium cannot seem to hold a     
      government together. Since the last elections in April 2007 it has had  
      three separate governments, and that does not include the 18 months of  
      interim governments required to hash out coalition deals that were      
      complex and unstable in equal measure. The soon-to-be-mounting          
      obsession among investors is that such political dysfunction will make  
      the austerity required to fix the budget next to impossible.            
                                                                              
      Austria is better off than Belgium by all of these measures. Its debt   
      and deficit are both considerably lower (68 percent of GDP versus 96    
      percent of GDP and 3.5 percent of GDP versus 6 percent of GDP,          
      respectively), its political system is more or less in order, and its   
      housing sector * nearly alone within Europe * was never overbuilt.      
      Austria*s biggest outlier is that its banks are listing badly, due to   
      their overexuberance in lending into the now-popped credit bubble that  
      plagues Central Europe.                                                 
                                                                              
      Europe's Financial Troubles Spread to Belgium, Austria                  
      (click here to enlarge image)                                           
                                                                              
      The point that Austria and Belgium have most in common, however, is     
      one they share with the weaker states of the PIIGS grouping: They are   
      largely dependent upon external financing to manage their sovereign     
      debt loads. Austria, Belgium, Greece and Ireland are all relatively     
      small states with limited indigenous financial resources. When a state  
      faces financial duress, the first thing the government does is hash     
      out a deal * often forcefully * with its own financial sector,          
      applying those resources to the problem. Such is standard fare in       
      major states such as Germany and Italy. Smaller states often lack such  
      options, forcing the governments to turn to international investors     
      for cash. In good times this is irrelevant, but when money gets tight   
      and investors get scared, an investor stampede can crush a state*s      
      finances overnight. Such a calamity was precisely what forced the       
      Greek and Irish breakdowns and bailouts. The exposure of all four of    
      these states to such outsiders is more than 50 percent of GDP, which    
      as Greece and Ireland have already demonstrated so vividly, is an       
      amount that simply cannot be coped with in a panic.                     
                                                                              
      Austria and Belgium are advanced, technocratic economies with           
      sophisticated financial sectors. Any financial contagion that breaks    
      into the developed states of Western Europe via these two countries     
      would terrify investors who have been fairly convinced that the euro*s  
      problems were safely sequestered in the somewhat manageable states of   
      the PIIGS grouping. Should Austria or Belgium go the way of Greece,     
      all bets will be off in Europe.                                         
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 14, 2010 1:25:28 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: A Week in the War: Afghanistan, Dec. 8-14, 2010

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     A Week in the War: Afghanistan, Dec. 8-14, 2010                          
                                                                              
      December 14, 2010 | 1914 GMT                                            
      A Week in the War: Afghanistan, July 7-13, 2010                         
      STRATFOR                                                                
      STRATFOR BOOK                                                           
        * Afghanistan at the Crossroads: Insights on the Conflict             
      Related Special Topic Page                                              
        * The War in Afghanistan                                              
      Related Links                                                           
        * A Week in the War: Afghanistan, Dec. 1-7, 2010                      
        * Afghanistan: The Intelligence War                                   
        * Afghanistan: Another Round in the IED Game                          
                                                                              
       White House Review                                                     
                                                                              
      The review of the counterinsurgency-focused strategy being pursued in   
      Afghanistan is expected to be formally completed this week, with U.S.   
      President Barack Obama scheduled to issue his assessment of the         
      strategy on Dec. 16, only days after the Dec. 13 death of the top U.S.  
      diplomat to the country, Richard Holbrooke. Though whatever             
      information released to the public on the review will be worth          
      examining, its broader strokes seem all but preordained at this point.  
      At the November NATO summit in Lisbon, Obama pledged to hand over       
      responsibility for the overall security situation in the country by     
      2014 * which means U.S. and allied combat forces will be engaged in     
      the country for years to come. In addition, Joint Chiefs of Staff       
      Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen announced Dec. 13 during a trip to            
      Afghanistan that he did not foresee any big reductions in American      
      forces, though a modest withdrawal was still slated to begin in line    
      with the previously announced July 2011 deadline.                       
                                                                              
      Indeed, virtually every statement on the subject from senior White      
      House and Pentagon officials sounds the same refrain: Progress is in    
      fact being made, the momentum of the Taliban is being reversed, but it  
      is a delicate, decisive time and there will only be modest troop        
      reductions starting in July 2011. There has been no indication that     
      the forthcoming report will deviate substantively from this position.   
      On his visit to Afghanistan last week, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert    
      Gates declared the strategy to be working, a strong indication of what  
      the tone of the upcoming report will be.                                
                                                                              
      A Week in the War: Afghanistan, Dec. 8-14, 2010                         
      (click here to enlarge image)                                           
                                                                              
       Nawa and Marjah                                                        
                                                                              
      At the heart of what the military * particularly the U.S. Marines and   
      British forces in Helmand province * considers a sign of progress is    
      the village of Nawa-i-Barakzayi, commonly shortened to *Nawa.* The      
      area, south of the provincial capital of Lashkar Gah in the Helmand     
      River valley, has been a focus of operations since the middle of 2009,  
      when a Marine battalion was deployed there. Today, military leaders     
      walk the busy central bazaar without body armor and students are        
      attending school, which was barred when Nawa and other parts of         
      Helmand were under Taliban control. This progress is being touted as    
      evidence that the current strategy can work. Indeed, a paved road is    
      being built (the first in the central Helmand River valley that is      
      U.S. Marine Regimental Combat Team-1*s area of operations) to connect   
      Nawa to Lashkar Gah. In other words, finding ways to link and speed     
      Nawa*s economic development and interconnectedness with the capital,    
      which itself is connected by road to Kandahar and the Ring Road, is     
      seen as central to entrenching recent gains and establishing a more     
      sustainable opposition to the Taliban.                                  
                                                                              
      To the west lies the farming community of Marjah * a proof-of-concept   
      operation itself that saw some initial disappointments on the pace of   
      progress. On Dec. 7, U.S. Marine Maj. Gen. Richard Mills, Commanding    
      General, 1st Marine Expeditionary Force (Forward), declared that the    
      battle in Marjah is over, and while this may be a questionable          
      assertion regarding areas on the outskirts of the community, it is      
      certainly a credible argument for the more populous central areas.      
      Patrols in those areas have become much less kinetic and faced a lower  
      threat from improvised explosive devices than they did in the spring    
      and summer (a pattern consistent with Nawa, where the Marine battalion  
      boasts not having fired a shot on patrol in months). Meanwhile, a       
      local community police initiative in Marjah has also proven successful  
      there.                                                                  
                                                                              
      The Lisbon commitment of combat forces until 2014 provides time to      
      consolidate what are thus far fragile gains in the heart of Taliban     
      territory. Mills also reiterated plans for an aggressive winter         
      campaign to *continue to press extraordinarily hard on all fronts* in   
      an attempt to fundamentally change the dynamics of the conflict in      
      Helmand by the spring thaw. Helmand is not as rugged as other Afghan    
      provinces, though the wet and cold weather still impacts operational    
      mobility and the rudimentary and unimproved infrastructure.             
      Nevertheless, the Taliban will be feeling the pressure this winter,     
      and the strategy is not without its logic * Mills claimed that his      
      Taliban *counterpart* had left for Pakistan for the winter dressed as   
      a woman.                                                                
                                                                              
       Attack in Zhari                                                        
                                                                              
      Despite progress in areas like Nawa, the Taliban have not and will not  
      let up completely. On Dec. 12, a large vehicle-borne improvised         
      explosive device (VBIED) * a small minivan * was detonated next to a    
      small, recently established joint outpost in Sangsar in Zhari district  
      west of Kandahar city. Six U.S. soldiers were killed, and a dozen more  
      American and Afghan troops were wounded.                                
                                                                              
      Though it is difficult to provide a full tactical account of the        
      attack at this point, a road appears to have run along the compound*s   
      outer wall, which appears to have served as a structural wall for a     
      building inside the compound (casualties were also reportedly related   
      to the roof collapsing). The mud brick walls of Afghan compounds are    
      often considered sufficient for forming portions of the perimeter of    
      U.S. bases in Helmand and can admittedly absorb some punishment. But    
      they are not blast walls, and it is difficult to defend against large   
      VBIEDs (the Dec. 12 VBIED was reportedly heard from eight miles away)   
      without some stand-off distance. While finding a location that          
      provides stand-off distance is ideal, there are many considerations     
      that go into the selection of a position, including access to main      
      roads able to sustain large, heavy Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected      
      All-Terrain Vehicles that provide supplies and support. The entire      
      purpose of the patrol base is often to establish a presence on a key    
      supply route or intersection.                                           
                                                                              
      While a post-attack analysis will undoubtedly find some failing with    
      the selection or preparation of the position, underlying realities      
      make it nearly impossible to find a location that is both extremely     
      secure and useful to the war effort. In a counterinsurgency-focused     
      effort, being out among the population * and not aloof in large,        
      imposing armored vehicles or behind layers and layers of protection *   
      has played an important role in the successes achieved in places like   
      Nawa, Marjah and elsewhere.                                             
                                                                              
      Furthermore, while forces have been deliberately massed in Helmand and  
      Kandahar provinces, they are still spread extremely thin, a challenge   
      that will only deepen as they expand their area of operations, for      
      example, to Sangin district farther north in Helmand and along the      
      Arghandab River valley in Kandahar. By the time forces are dispersed    
      to a small position, there is not always a great deal of manpower for   
      even basic tasks. Being accessible * focused on relations with the      
      local population * and being focused on security are goals often in     
      tension with one another, and an effective counterinsurgency strategy   
      necessarily includes vulnerability. Military commanders strolling down  
      the street in an Afghan bazaar without body armor do not do so because  
      it is safe (their protective details dread it) but because it is an     
      enormously important gesture.                                           
                                                                              
      If the Taliban can force the International Security Assistance Force    
      (ISAF) to hunker down on larger, better-defended forward operating      
      bases, never go out on smaller patrols and not hold isolated            
      positions, they will have achieved an important end: undermining the    
      counterinsurgency effort. The momentum of the surge of Western forces   
      into Afghanistan and ongoing offensive efforts are not likely to be     
      reversed any time soon. But how the ISAF balances counterinsurgency     
      and force protection will remain an important element of the war        
      effort moving forward * as will the Taliban*s ability to continue to    
      inflict casualties over the winter in the face of a concerted campaign  
      to drive them from their home territory.                                
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 14, 2010 4:27:02 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Dispatch: Tracking Egypt's Presidential Succession Plan

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Dispatch: Tracking Egypt's Presidential Succession Plan                  
                                                                              
      December 14, 2010 | 2154 GMT                                            
      Click on image below to watch video:                                    
      [IMG]                                                                   
                                                                              
      Analyst Reva Bhalla examines the evolving dynamics of Egypt*s           
      presidential succession plan and the possibility for increased          
      military influence in Cairo*s political affairs.                        
                                                                              
      Editor*s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition       
      technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete         
      accuracy.                                                               
                                                                              
      In facing growing pressure from the military over his succession        
      planning, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak now seems to be leaning      
      toward the idea of handing power over to his former air force chief     
      instead of his son, Gamal. One thing that*s becoming clear is that the  
      military is having an increasing say over the political affairs of the  
      Egyptian state as the sustainability of the regime post-Mubarak comes   
      into question.                                                          
                                                                              
      Mubarak told an Egyptian newspaper today that he wishes that the        
      opposition hadn*t wasted its efforts over first arguing over a boycott  
      in the recent parliamentary elections, then participating, and then     
      dropping out after they saw the results. Now, the Egyptian regime is    
      clearly on the defensive after these elections because the ruling       
      National Democratic Party expectedly trounced the opposition, which is  
      composed mainly of the Muslim Brotherhood and Mohamed ElBaradei*s       
      National Assembly for Change. Those elections are also being            
      criticized widely for alleged vote-rigging that left the Muslim         
      Brotherhood with zero seats in the parliament despite its considerable  
      popular support in the country. Mubarak*s government is understandably  
      on the defensive in the wake of these elections which explains          
      Mubarak*s comment on how the opposition is the one to blame for its     
      losses but it*s becoming increasingly difficult for the Egyptian        
      government to conceal a growing dispute in the upper ranks of the       
      regime over the succession strategy.                                    
                                                                              
      The Mubarak succession strategy has taken on a lot of variations.       
      First, Mubarak had a plan to somehow transfer power to his son, Gamal,  
      when he becomes incapacitated. The problem is that the old guard of     
      the regime both in the ruling party and the military are not            
      comfortable with the idea of the younger and inexperienced Gamal        
      taking over, especially in light of his more reform-minded ideas on     
      the economy. To try to stave off the crisis, Mubarak had planned to     
      have his powerful intelligence chief, Omar Suleiman, become vice        
      president and then eventually take over as president for Mubarak when   
      Mubarak becomes incapacitated, and Suleiman was expected to hold that   
      position for at least a year before handing the reins down to Gamal.    
                                                                              
      Now in recent months, members of the old guard made clear to Mubarak    
      they were not happy with a succession plan that involves Gamal. They    
      highly respect Suleiman but they are worried that Suleiman*s advanced   
      age and his health issues may lead to a quicker transition to Gamal     
      altogether.                                                             
                                                                              
      In the meantime Mubarak seems to be leaning toward an idea to have his  
      former air force chief, Ahmed Shafiq, take over eventually for him, as  
      someone from the old guard, someone that*s well-respected, and someone  
      that doesn*t have the advanced age and health issues as Mubarak and     
      Suleiman. One thing that makes Suleiman uniquely qualified for this     
      position is that not only does he have the military credentials as the  
      former air force chief, but he also has civilian credentials in his     
      position currently as the minister for civil aviation. So what we*ve    
      seen eventually play out over the past several months is how the        
      military has gained an increasing say over the political affairs of     
      the state, specifically right now the succession issue, but that        
      influence is likely to expand and as the opposition becomes louder and  
      as the Muslim Brotherhood tries to exploit the succession process, the  
      military*s ability to justify it stronger hand at the helm also         
      increases.                                                              
                                                                              
      Click for more videos                                                   
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 14, 2010 5:00:55 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Russian Authorities Prepare for Violence

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Russian Authorities Prepare for Violence                                 
                                                                              
      December 14, 2010 | 2245 GMT                                            
      Calling for Russia to be for Russians                                   
      ANDREY SMIRNOV/AFP/Getty Images                                         
      Russian soccer fans clash with riot police in central Moscow on Dec.    
      11                                                                      
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      Over the past decade, the Kremlin has organized and funded a Russian    
      nationalist movement that it hopes will consolidate the government*s    
      power over the country following the fall of the Soviet Union. Now a    
      force of its own, the movement began clashing with Russian Muslims      
      following the death of a young Russian during a soccer riot Dec. 5.     
      Preparing for more violence at a planned anti-Muslim rally in Moscow    
      on Dec. 15, the Kremlin must prove that it can control and rein in the  
      nationalists as well as other disruptive elements when needed.          
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      Russian authorities are preparing for a new eruption of violence in     
      Moscow on Dec. 15, when a planned anti-Muslim rally is supposed to      
      take place at Kievsky Railway Station. The protest would come after     
      more than a week of violence and tension between Russian Muslims and    
      Russian nationalists in Moscow, and it would serve as a crucial test    
      for Russia to prove it has the ability to rein in disruptive elements.  
                                                                              
      The violence started on Dec. 5 after riots broke out following a        
      soccer match. Soccer riots are common in Russia and tend to break up    
      overnight. But this riot resulted in the death of a Russian youth, who  
      reportedly was killed by Muslims from the Caucasus and Central Asia     
      (with most reports citing mainly Dagestanis and possibly an Uzbek as    
      being among the perpetrators). Those responsible were arrested, but by  
      the time they made bail a massive group of Russian nationalists had     
      gathered outside the police station and were protesting their release.  
                                                                              
      Within just a few hours of the death of the young Russian, the Russian  
      Internet was bombarded with Russian nationalist calls for the deaths    
      of Russian Muslims and a rise against Russian Muslims in Moscow. This   
      shows how the ability of Russian nationalists to quickly organize       
      online and then take to the streets with banners has contributed        
      significantly to the overall rise of nationalism in the country.        
                                                                              
      On Dec. 6, Russian nationalists reportedly killed a Kyrgyz man in       
      Moscow in retaliation for the young Russian*s death. Then on Dec. 11,   
      Russian nationalists held a 5,000-strong rally outside the Kremlin,     
      shouting the slogan, *Russia for the Russians.* Following the rally, a  
      few of the nationalists reportedly took to the streets and critically   
      injured more than 30 Russian Muslims from the Caucasus (most were       
      stabbed and at least two were shot).                                    
                                                                              
      As night fell in Russia on Dec. 14, reports started to surface that     
      Russian Muslim websites * mainly those based out of the Russian         
      Caucasus * have started to buzz with calls for the Muslims to unite     
      and retaliate against the nationalists. There have been a few reports   
      of Muslims traveling from the Caucasus to Moscow via bus or train.      
      Russian authorities have already locked down all bus and train          
      terminals, trying to prevent any Muslim extremists from entering the    
      city. Such extremists have been able to pull off major attacks over     
      the past year, including the Moscow subway bombing in April.            
                                                                              
      Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Dmitri Medvedev     
      have publicly called for peace and sharply warned both sides of the     
      consequences of violence. According to STRATFOR sources, the            
      orchestrator of the Kremlin*s nationalist movement, Vladislav Surkov,   
      has also been in meetings with far-right extremist groups and the       
      Kremlin*s own nationalist youth party, Nashi, warning them all to not   
      take part in the Dec. 15 rally.                                         
                                                                              
      By nightfall on Dec. 14, Russian authorities had already deployed riot  
      police, militia and interior troops to the streets of Moscow in         
      preparation of the protest and possible clashes. Ironically, it is the  
      Kremlin that has organized, funded and ramped up the nationalist        
      movement in Russia over the past decade, using it to consolidate the    
      government*s power over the country after the fall of the Soviet        
      Union. Now, this nationalist movement has become a force of its own     
      and something the Kremlin must prove that it can still control and      
      rein in when needed.                                                    
                                                                              
      The same holds true for the Kremlin*s control of Muslim groups in the   
      country. The government declared in 2009 that it had ended its war in   
      the Russian Caucasus, though instability persists. The Kremlin has      
      attempted to assure the public that, despite various attacks outside    
      of the Caucasus by Muslim militants, it can still prevent most of the   
      instability in the Russian Muslim Caucasus from spreading north and     
      keep it far from the capital.                                           
                                                                              
      As it happens, this test comes at a time when the international         
      community is closely watching Russian security. Russia has been         
      awarded both the winter Olympics in 2014 (in Sochi, just outside of     
      the Muslim regions in the Caucasus) and the World Cup in 2018 (in       
      which soccer-related unrest is expected). The last thing the Kremlin    
      wants right now is a massive outbreak of violence related to Russian    
      nationalists and Muslims and originating from a soccer riot.            
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
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      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 15, 2010 5:49:20 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Next Steps for Iraq and Afghanistan

      [IMG]                                                                   
                                                                              
      Wednesday, December 15, 2010   [IMG] STRATFOR.COM [IMG] Diary Archives  
                                                                              
                       Next Steps for Iraq and Afghanistan                    
                                                                              
      With Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and al-Iraqiya List leader    
      Iyad Allawi meeting in Baghdad Tuesday night, a governing coalition     
      appears near. And with a review of the efficacy of the                  
      counterinsurgency-focused strategy in Afghanistan due to the White      
      House before the end of the week, the Iraqi question appears to be      
      settling out while Afghanistan remains as unsettled as ever. But in     
      looking at the months ahead, the reverse is also true: While            
      Afghanistan is likely to continue along its current path, the fate of   
      Iraq hangs in the balance.                                              
                                                                              
      In the case of Afghanistan, the war still rages. But the review of the  
      strategy has been under way for months, and U.S. President Barack       
      Obama*s formal announcement of the commitment of American combat        
      forces to Afghanistan until 2014 at the NATO summit in Lisbon in        
      November was undoubtedly informed by a familiarity with the broad       
      strokes * if not the finer points * of the forthcoming report. Senior   
      Pentagon officials and U.S. commanders in Afghanistan have cautiously   
      noted signs of progress and insisted that while a drawdown will begin   
      on schedule in July 2011, it will be modest. In practical terms, this   
      means the troops committed to the war in Afghanistan and the strategy   
      that guides their deployment do not appear set to shift meaningfully    
      in the year ahead.                                                      
                                                                              
      Were the report to provide the pivot for a meaningful change in         
      strategy, the Pentagon, and certainly the White House, would already    
      know that by now, and we would have in all likelihood seen some         
      preparation for that shift. So, while there may be course corrections   
      and tactical shifts * and the review itself may provide new insight     
      into the war effort * the Afghan war is increasingly looking like a     
      known quantity, even if it is an active war zone.                       
                                                                              
      *At stake are the delicate balance of power and the fragile stability   
      that have been so hard won in Iraq*yet, while the war rages in          
      Afghanistan, the players and the stakes appear set. *                   
                                                                              
      And so we turn to the country that previously overshadowed Afghanistan  
      in this regard: Iraq. Allawi*s al-Iraqiya coalition, for which many     
      Iraqi Sunnis voted, won the March elections by a sliver but was         
      outmaneuvered by Shiite factions, which were aided by the Iranians.     
      Allawi*s decision to agree to join a government led by al-Maliki, who   
      will remain prime minister, is significant far beyond simply the        
      formation of a government in Baghdad. At stake is the enfranchisement   
      or disenfranchisement of the Sunni, who voted en masse for the first    
      time in March (they largely boycotted the 2005 election). Allawi*s      
      rejection of the coalition taking shape under al-Maliki could have led  
      to a rapid destabilization of the still-fragile security situation in   
      Iraq.                                                                   
                                                                              
      But progress does not mean that the issue is settled. There has begun   
      to be broad acceptance of the distribution of ministries and Cabinet    
      positions. Allawi himself will be placed at the head of a newly         
      created council to oversee security and foreign policy issues * the     
      National Council for Strategic Policies (NCSP). This means that he has  
      agreed to command an entity that itself is an unknown quantity. Not     
      only its shape, but its influence and authority remain to be seen. And  
      the question for the Sunni is not one of mere title, but of the         
      practical mechanisms through which they command and exercise their      
      modest share of political power.                                        
                                                                              
      Post-Baathist Iraq is a young entity and its governmental institutions  
      are new and still taking shape. But the long-standing and enduring      
      reality in Iraq is the struggle between the Sunnis and the Shia (with   
      Iraqi Kurds guarding their own interests as best they can). Progress    
      has been made in shoehorning much of this struggle into the political   
      realm, though political power is still being abused for sectarian       
      purposes. In a very real sense, this centuries-old ethno-sectarian      
      struggle is barely contained inside political process. The struggle     
      has not gone away; it has merely moved from one arena * the formation   
      of a coalition and the distribution of power, ministry by ministry *    
      to another: the powers that are and are not assigned to the NCSP, and   
      the means provided to the NCSP to wield and protect those powers. At    
      stake are the delicate balance of power and the fragile stability that  
      have been so hard won in Iraq. At play are powerful and deep            
      ethno-sectarian tensions that remain capable of dragging the country    
      back into civil bloodshed.                                              
                                                                              
      While the war rages in Afghanistan, meanwhile, the players and the      
      stakes appear set. This next year will be telling, but the fighting     
      will continue. In Iraq, despite the outward appearance of peace, the    
      country remains on the brink. And to understand that, the two issues    
      at the forefront of our mind are 1) the mechanisms that the Sunni will  
      accept as sufficient to wield and defend their share of the political   
      pie, and 2) the understandings * or lack thereof *between Washington    
      and Tehran about what happens next in Baghdad.                          
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
      Not For Publication                                                     

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 15, 2010 7:57:26 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: EU Leaders to Establish Eurozone's Permanent Rescue Fund

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     EU Leaders to Establish Eurozone's Permanent Rescue Fund                 
                                                                              
      December 15, 2010 | 1326 GMT                                            
      EU Leaders to Set up Eurozone's Permanent Rescue Fund                   
      GEORGES GOBET/AFP/Getty Images                                          
      German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble before a meeting in          
      Brussels on Dec. 6                                                      
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      Ahead of the EU leaders* summit, slated for Dec. 16-17, news has        
      emerged that the European Union intends to change the Lisbon Treaty     
      and create a permanent rescue fund for the eurozone. The fund will      
      replace the current European Financial Stability Facility, which        
      expires in 2013. Germany is spearheading the move * part of Berlin*s    
      redesign of the European Union. However, the change is not a sure       
      thing, as it must receive approval from the European Parliament and     
      all 27 EU member states. Furthermore, other related financial issues    
      need to be addressed at the upcoming summit.                            
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      News emerged days before the EU leaders* Dec. 16-17 summit that the     
      European Union has already agreed on revising the Lisbon Treaty to      
      establish a permanent rescue fund that will replace the current         
      European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) once it expires in 2013.   
      According to the Irish Times and the EUobserver, the two-sentence       
      paragraph to be inserted in the Lisbon Treaty will read:                
                                                                              
        Member states whose currency is the euro may establish amongst        
        themselves a stability mechanism to safeguard the stability of the    
        euro area as a whole. The granting of financial assistance under the  
        mechanism will be made subject to strict conditions.                  
                                                                              
      Amending the Lisbon Treaty in order to establish a permanent rescue     
      mechanism will complete Berlin*s first phase of redesigning the         
      European Union. However, several issues remain to be discussed at the   
      upcoming summit, starting with the enforcement of the union*s fiscal    
      rules meant to keep member states from needing to access the future     
      permanent rescue facility. Germany had to compromise on some issues *   
      such as making penalties against states that fail to follow EU fiscal   
      rules *automatic* * but overall it has thus far received what it        
      wanted. The new rules on the permanent rescue fund will be enshrined    
      in the EU Constitution and will be dominated by Berlin, since the EFSF  
      (and its likely permanent successor) is an institution independent of   
      the EU bureaucracy and thus ultimately under German control.            
                                                                              
       Possible Constraints to the Treaty Change                              
                                                                              
      To make the amendment establishing the permanent rescue fund, EU        
      leaders will use a new procedure implemented by the Lisbon Treaty in    
      late 2009 that allows for limited treaty change without a laborious     
      constitutional convention. However, the change will still require       
      approval from the European Parliament and the legislatures of all 27    
      EU member states. It is not clear whether this will trigger any         
      national referendums * something that has stalled nearly every modern   
      EU treaty revision, most recently with the Irish voters* rejection of   
      the Lisbon Treaty.                                                      
                                                                              
      The decision made at the Dec. 16-17 EU summit therefore might not be    
      the final say for individual EU member states on the matter of new      
      fiscal rules and the permanent mechanism. Also, because the eurozone    
      is still part of the European Union, potential Euroskeptics like the    
      United Kingdom, Denmark and the Czech Republic will have a say in the   
      matter even though they are not eurozone members.                       
                                                                              
      The Irish government has said that it would not need a referendum * a   
      position that may change if the current government is replaced in       
      early 2011 * but other countries may decide differently. British Prime  
      Minister David Cameron campaigned in early 2010 that he would require   
      popular referendums on future EU treaty revisions, although there has   
      been no indication from London thus far on how it would respond to the  
      latest revision. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said Dec. 10    
      that he would call a referendum in Greece if the new enforcement        
      mechanisms included the loss of voting powers for member states found   
      to be in violation of EU fiscal rules. Germany may try to avoid these   
      delays by purely subjecting the permanent rescue mechanism to treaty    
      revision, leaving the enforcement mechanisms to a non-treaty revision   
      procedure.                                                              
                                                                              
       Beyond the Rescue Fund and Toward a *Fiscal Union*                     
                                                                              
      Aside from the permanent rescue fund * essentially an extension of the  
      440 billion euro ($588.9 billion) EFSF that was recently tapped to      
      bail out Ireland * and the new fiscal rules enforcement mechanisms,     
      the Dec. 16-17 summit will also address several proposals. The first    
      two, which Berlin opposes, are the eurobond * a joint eurozone-wide     
      financial instrument that spreads the risk across the euro region *     
      and enlarging the EFSF to account for the potential bailouts of Spain   
      and Portugal in 2011. Germany opposes the eurobond, essentially a bond  
      any eurozone state can use to raise funding at a joint interest rate,   
      because it would give peripheral member states access to low-cost       
      financing, which would take away their incentive to cut spending as     
      ordered by Berlin. The eurobond would also necessitate Germany*s        
      participation; without Germany, the eurobond would not bring costs of   
      borrowing down for other member states. But from Berlin*s perspective,  
      the eurobond would only lower everyone else*s borrowing costs at the    
      expense of Germany*s rates, which would rise to compensate for the      
      eurobond*s greater risk compared to the German bund.                    
                                                                              
      Berlin*s problem with increasing the size of the EFSF is that after     
      Portugal and Spain, the next three countries most likely to need a      
      bailout are Belgium, Italy and France. Increasing the EFSF to account   
      for Belgium would not be significant enough to make a difference in     
      the markets, but increasing it to account for Italy or France would be  
      practically impossible due to the size of the two economies. Instead,   
      German officials have floated the idea of allowing the European         
      Central Bank (ECB) to increase the capital base of the Eurozone, thus   
      giving the ECB the ability to buy up more government bonds of           
      embattled Eurozone states.                                              
                                                                              
      Ahead of the leaders* summit, there has also been significant chatter   
      in Europe about Berlin*s apparent shift in position toward the idea of  
      a *fiscal union,* or *economic governance,* as French President         
      Nicolas Sarkozy initially called it during the 2008 crisis. In a        
      fiscal union, the eurozone would cease to be merely a monetary union    
      using the same currency and ruled by a single central bank. It would    
      evolve to also include synchronization of tax, labor law and budget     
      policies. The crux of the idea, however, is that member states would    
      lose a degree of sovereignty over taxation and spending * probably the  
      most important policies for a sovereign modern nation-state.            
                                                                              
      STRATFOR noted that Germany was shifting its position on the issue as   
      early as May 2010, immediately after the establishment of the EFSF.     
      More recently, on Dec. 10, Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel  
      spoke in favor of coordinating tax and labor policies. German Finance   
      Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble also directly referred to the concept,      
      saying in an interview with Bild am Sonntag on Dec. 11 that he could    
      see a fiscal union emerging within 10.                                  
                                                                              
      Germany*s shift on the idea might seem like a dramatic policy change    
      for Berlin. In fact, many commentators in Germany*s media have          
      suggested that it is more a product of a disagreement between Merkel    
      and Schaeuble * with latter pushing for it and the former resisting it  
      * then an actual policy shift.                                          
                                                                              
      However, there are two reasons to look at the issue from a different    
      perspective. First, Germany is willing to entertain the idea of fiscal  
      union with the rest of the eurozone as long as it is clear that Berlin  
      is in charge of that union. Control of the rescue mechanism certainly   
      gives Berlin the upper hand over its fellow member states. Second,      
      Germany is willing to consider a fiscal union * which would supposedly  
      also mean some level of fiscal transfers from Germany to the poorer     
      states * as a long-term complement to short-term austerity measures     
      and fiscal rules. But it expects the short-term issues to be resolved   
      first and will hold its fellow EU member states to enforcement          
      mechanism reforms at the EU leaders* summit.                            
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
      Not For Publication                                                     
      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 15, 2010 8:09:32 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Russia's Position in North Korean Negotiations

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Russia's Position in North Korean Negotiations                           
                                                                              
      December 15, 2010 | 1328 GMT                                            
      Russia's Position in North Korean Negotiations                          
      NA SON NGUYEN/AFP/Getty Images                                          
      Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at a July 23 summit in Hanoi,    
      Vietnam                                                                 
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      Russia on Dec. 13 issued a third condemnation of North Korea over the   
      Nov. 23 attack on Yeonpyeong Island. This condemnation comes in stark   
      contrast to Moscow*s response to the ChonAn incident, where it largely  
      tried to shield Pyongyang from criticism, and could be an indication    
      that Russia is weighing its economic relationship with South Korea      
      more carefully this time. That said, Moscow has little interest in      
      siding fully with Seoul, viewing North Korea as a useful tool against   
      the United States.                                                      
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
      Related Links                                                           
        * Russia, North Korea, South Korea: Hurdles to a Strategic Rail       
          Project                                                             
        * How Korea*s New Railroad Will Change Northeast Asia                 
        * Shifting Diplomatic Lines on the Korean Peninsula Crisis?           
                                                                              
      Russia issued its third condemnation of North Korea for its Nov. 23     
      attack on South Korean-controlled Yeonpyeong Island on Dec. 13, the     
      same day as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov hosted his North     
      Korean counterpart, Pak Ui Chun, for a third day of talks. The          
      condemnation comes amid frantic diplomatic efforts over both the        
      Yeonpyeong incident and North Korea*s newly revealed uranium            
      enrichment activities. South Korean nuclear envoy Wi Sung Lac is also   
      in Russia for discussions Dec. 15, U.S. negotiators are in Beijing,     
      China continues calling for a resumption of six-party talks and         
      Pyongyang claims it will not meet conditions imposed by Washington and  
      its allies as a prerequisite to talks.                                  
                                                                              
      Russia*s response to the Yeonpyeong attack starkly contrasts with its   
      response to the March sinking of the South Korean naval corvette        
      ChonAn, indicating that while it may not have changed its stance on     
      relations on the Korean Peninsula, it is weighing its lucrative         
      economic relationship with South Korea more carefully this time.        
                                                                              
       Moscow*s Responses to Pyongyang                                        
                                                                              
      Russia twice before condemned the Yeonpyeong attack, the first coming   
      immediately after the incident. In this third condemnation, Moscow      
      demanded Pyongyang cease provocations, comply with U.N. Security        
      Council (UNSC) resolutions and rejoin six-way talks. Though Russia has  
      always lent verbal support for denuclearization and has supported UNSC  
      sanctions against the North, these condemnations differ from its        
      response to the ChonAn incident, where Moscow joined Beijing in         
      shielding Pyongyang from criticism and conducted its own                
      investigation, ultimately ruling against a North Korean torpedo         
      attack.                                                                 
                                                                              
      Russia has little interest in siding entirely with the South Koreans,   
      which would mean siding with the Americans, against the North and       
      China. Russia continues to criticize U.S. and South Korean military     
      exercises as driving up tensions in the region. From Moscow*s point of  
      view, the Yeonpyeong incident, which North Korea blames on South        
      Korean exercises taking place at the time of the attack, vindicated     
      Deputy Foreign Minister Alexei Borodavkin*s public warning in           
      September that high tensions on the peninsula, fueled by such           
      exercises, could erupt into conflict in the near future.                
                                                                              
       The Russo-Korean Economic Relationship                                 
                                                                              
      But there are economic factors for Moscow to consider. South Korea      
      remains a consumer of Russian oil and natural gas and a major investor  
      in Russia*s economy ($1.3 billion in 2009), offering exactly what       
      Moscow is looking for to facilitate its economic modernization and      
      privatization: capital, high technology, expertise and infrastructure.  
                                                                              
      South Korean shipbuilders have become the chief players in renovating   
      Russia*s shipbuilding sector, which will help supply vessels and        
      equipment for its expanding oil and natural gas trade in the Asia       
      Pacific region. South Korea is still the largest shipbuilder in the     
      world, builds the world*s biggest ships and leads the world in          
      technology and efficiency when it comes to shipyards and shipbuilding,  
      so it is uniquely attractive to Moscow. Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine  
      Equipment is currently expanding and modernizing Russia*s outdated      
      Zvezda military shipyard near Vladivostok by 2012, and Samsung and      
      Hyundai are pursuing similar shipbuilding contracts. The Koreans would  
      help Russia build icebreakers, oil-drilling platforms, tankers and      
      potentially even high-tech icebreakers to carry liquefied natural gas   
      (LNG). Seoul is also a top candidate for building an LNG export         
      terminal in Vladivostok and investing in further expansions to          
      Sakhalin Island energy projects and infrastructure, where it has        
      already invested $1.5 billion, according to Sakhalin Governor           
      Aleksandr Khoroshavin. There are several other deals, blueprints and    
      possibilities for cooperation in other sectors, taking as a model       
      successes like Hyundai*s recently-opened $500 million car-making plant  
      in St. Petersburg.                                                      
                                                                              
      Because the Yeonpyeong attack was North Korea*s second extraordinary    
      provocation this year and resulted in civilian casualties, Moscow       
      would have faced a much higher risk of harming relations with Seoul     
      had it not shown more sensitivity and support this time than after the  
      ChonAn incident.                                                        
                                                                              
      Of course, as Moscow knows, the South Koreans need Russia too. Seoul    
      did not downgrade relations with Russia over its unsympathetic          
      response to the ChonAn incident. On the contrary, during the high tide  
      of the ChonAn controversy the two sides continued striking major        
      deals. Seoul wants to get into the Russian market and privatization     
      and modernization processes as it attempts to boost exports of major    
      industrial and infrastructural goods. The Korean industrial giants      
      feel Chinese competition rising and want to maintain the edge in a      
      market as big as Russia. In addition the Korea Times reported in        
      October that South Korea hopes to convince Russia to transfer more      
      high-tech arms, such as long-range radars and systems resistant to      
      electromagnetic pulse attack, as a means of paying off its debts to     
      the South. In fact, Seoul has shown willingness to make sacrifices to   
      avoid angering Russia in its sphere of influence * the South Koreans    
      pulled out of a bid in early December to help construct a nuclear       
      plant in Lithuania, most likely due to Russian requests.                
                                                                              
      While Russia may have struck a harsher tone after the North*s latest    
      attack, and will from time to time support international attempts to    
      pressure North Korea through statements or sanctions, it will not       
      shift wholly to a disapproving stance toward the North. Russia wants    
      to see what it can get from South Korea while keeping some ability to   
      use North Korea as a lever against the South or other interested        
      parties like China and especially the United States. Russia shares a    
      border with the North and has growing economic interests in the         
      region, and it does not want universal pressure to force a North        
      Korean collapse. North Korean normalization or even eventual            
      reunification could bring opportunities (such as a natural gas          
      pipeline, railway or electricity line connecting Russia and the         
      Koreas), but unification would also pose the threat of having a U.S.    
      ally on Russia*s border, less than 100 kilometers away from             
      Vladivostok.                                                            
                                                                              
      Hence, Russia will always seek to maintain its leverage over            
      peninsular affairs so as to maintain the status quo or exert influence  
      over any changes that take place. In fact, Russia was once much more    
      active as one of the North*s patrons, and with North Korea seeking      
      ways to reduce its dependence on China, there is always the             
      possibility that it could reach out to Russia more. For the Kremlin,    
      North Korea, similarly to Iran, remains a lever that could come in      
      handy. This will change only if the South Koreans are willing to pay    
      Russia*s price. In the meantime, the two sides seem to have found a     
      modus vivendi.                                                          
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
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      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 15, 2010 9:33:03 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Above the Tearline: Investigating an Iranian Murder Plot in the
     U.S.

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Above the Tearline: Investigating an Iranian Murder Plot in the U.S.     
                                                                              
      December 14, 2010 | 2221 GMT                                            
      Click on image below to watch video:                                    
      [IMG]                                                                   
                                                                              
      VP of Intelligence Fred Burton examines an attempt by Iranian           
      intelligence to murder an individual on U.S. soil and how such cases    
      are usually investigated.                                               
                                                                              
      Editor*s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition       
      technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete         
      accuracy.                                                               
                                                                              
      Hi, I*m Fred Burton with STRATFOR. In this week*s Above the Tearline,   
      we*re going to look at one WikiLeaks cable * just one * and explain     
      how this is a unique window into how terrorism information is           
      disseminated and how intelligence goes from information to an arrest.   
                                                                              
      What you have in this case is a very sophisticated Iranian              
      intelligence service operation used to put together an assassination    
      plan to target a Voice of American broadcaster in London, as well as    
      an opposition broadcaster in Los Angeles. Specifically, Iran appears    
      to have contracted out surveillance of the victim inside the United     
      States for the purposes of an assassination on U.S. soil. The FBI       
      swoops in and thwarts the plot, arrests the bad guy. The individual     
      served a year in jail and was placed on probation. While on probation,  
      a judge allowed him to go back to Iran. It*s our understanding that,    
      as a result, he has chosen not to appear back in the United States and  
      therefore remains a fugitive inside of Iran.                            
                                                                              
      If you look at this case in the concept of how a counterterrorism       
      investigation is conducted, this is a boiler-plate example of what      
      occurs. You have a source that comes to the attention of a U.S.         
      Embassy abroad * in this case, London. He brings to the embassy         
      information involving a sophisticated Iranian assassination plot. The   
      Embassy takes that material and disseminates it to Washington.          
      Washington comes back to London, lets them know that the FBI was aware  
      of a plot and had been working the case in California. It sends out     
      leads to the respective joint-terrorism task forces (in this case, it   
      appears to be Los Angeles and Ann Arbor, Mich.) in a very highly        
      compartmented manner and substantiates the information, resulting in    
      the arrest of a hitman. The plot is thwarted, and the bad guy leaves    
      the country and is now safe-havened in Iran.                            
                                                                              
      The Above the Tearline aspect of this case is how, everyday, the U.S.   
      counterterrorism community is dealing with the investigation of highly  
      complex intelligence operations that originate in intelligence          
      information, which can be parsed off and used for criminal              
      investigation and prosecution inside the United States, as well as for  
      the neutralization of murder plots.                                     
                                                                              
      Click for more videos                                                   
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
      Not For Publication                                                     
      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 15, 2010 3:20:53 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 15, 2010

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 15, 2010                                     
                                                                              
      December 15, 2010 | 2052 GMT                                            
                                                                              
      The Naval Update Map shows an approximation of the current locations    
      of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups        
      (ARGs), the keys to U.S. dominance of the world*s oceans. A CSG is      
      centered on an aircraft carrier, which projects U.S. naval and air      
      power and supports a carrier air wing (CVW). The CSG includes           
      significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three    
      amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU)        
      embarked. An MEU is built around a heavily reinforced and mobile        
      battalion of Marines.                                                   
                                                                              
      U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 15, 2010                                    
      (click here to enlarge image)                                           
                                                                              
       Carrier Strike Groups                                                  
                                                                              
        * The USS Enterprise returned to its home port after completing a     
          joint task force exercise as part of its preparation for its        
          upcoming deployment.                                                
        * The USS Harry S. Truman CSG with CVW 3 embarked is under way in     
          the Atlantic Ocean, returning from its deployment in the 5th and    
          6th Fleet areas of responsibility (AORs).                           
        * The USS Nimitz is at Naval Base Kitsap-Bremerton, Wash., preparing  
          for a yearlong docking planned incremental availability (DPIA) at   
          the Puget Sound Naval Shipyard and Intermediate Maintenance         
          Facility.                                                           
        * The USS Carl Vinson with CVW 17 embarked is under way for a         
          three-week composite training unit exercise followed by a           
          scheduled deployment to the western Pacific Ocean.                  
        * The USS Abraham Lincoln CSG with CVW 2 embarked is on a scheduled   
          deployment in the 5th Fleet AOR conducting maritime security        
          operations and theater security cooperation efforts.                
        * The USS George Washington returned to its home port after           
          participating in exercises with naval units from Japan and South    
          Korea.                                                              
                                                                              
       Amphibious Ready Groups/Marine Expeditionary Units                     
                                                                              
        * The USS Peleliu ARG with the 15th MEU embarked is under way in the  
          Pacific Ocean transiting to its home port after deployment.         
        * The USS Essex ARG with the 31st MEU returned to its home port       
          after participating in exercises with naval units from Japan and    
          South Korea.                                                        
        * The USS Kearsarge ARG with the 26th MEU embarked is under way       
          supporting maritime security operations and theater security        
          cooperation efforts in the U.S. 5th Fleet AOR.                      
        * The USS Boxer is under way conducting operations in the Pacific     
          Ocean.                                                              
                                                                              
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     Date: December 15, 2010 3:51:47 PM CST
     To: "michael.cashel@fmr.com" &lt;service@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: RECEIPT of GIFT PURCHASE

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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 15, 2010 4:35:03 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Dispatch: Presidential Elections in Belarus

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Dispatch: Presidential Elections in Belarus                              
                                                                              
      December 15, 2010 | 2226 GMT                                            
      Click on image below to watch video:                                    
      [IMG]                                                                   
                                                                              
      Regardless of whether incumbent and likely winner Aleksandr Lukashenko  
      emerges victorious from Belarus* upcoming presidential election,        
      Analyst Eugene Chausovsky says Belarus will remain under Moscow*s       
      thumb.                                                                  
                                                                              
      Editor*s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition       
      technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete         
      accuracy.                                                               
                                                                              
      Belarus will hold presidential elections on Dec. 19. The outcome of     
      the elections is likely to give the victory to the incumbent,           
      President Aleksandr Lukashenko. But in a strategic sense, it doesn*t    
      really matter who wins. However, the elections give STRATFOR an         
      opportunity to examine the state of relations among Belarus, Russia     
      and the West.                                                           
                                                                              
      Belarus is important for several reasons, not least of which is         
      geography. Belarus is located on the Northern European Plain, which is  
      historically the traditional invasion route of Western European powers  
      into Russia. Therefore, Belarus serves as an important defense partner  
      who, if allied with Russia, can serve as a bulwark against any Western  
      or, in modern day, NATO expansion into Russia*s periphery. Belarus is   
      also important to Russia for an economic reason. Because of its         
      location, it serves as a transit point for roughly 20 percent of        
      Russia*s energy supplies to Europe. Because Belarus is a nearby         
      European state, the European Union * and especially the Central         
      European states, like Poland * have an important stake in Belarus as    
      well. This can be for economic ties but also, and more importantly, as  
      a buffer against Russian designs in the region.                         
                                                                              
      In the past year, we have seen many interesting developments happen in  
      Belarus as these two players * Russia and Europe * vie for influence    
      there. Russian started 2010 by joining into a customs union Belarus     
      (along with Kazakhstan), which essentially eliminates many economic     
      and political barriers among the three countries. While this was meant  
      to strengthen Russia*s relationship with Belarus, it actually opened    
      many rifts with Belarus instead. This happened because the two          
      countries joined into the customs union for different reasons. From     
      Belarus* perspective, they thought being in a customs union with        
      Russia would grant it favor with Moscow and give it perks and           
      concessions from Russia, such as cheaper energy prices for natural gas  
      and oil, or the abolition of customs duties on the oil and natural gas  
      that Belarus transits into Europe. From Russia*s perspective, it        
      wasn*t willing to give such concessions to Belarus because Russia       
      essentially thought of the customs union as a way to dominate Belarus   
      and Kazakhstan economically; it was not willing to play such games      
      with Minsk.                                                             
                                                                              
      These two different perspectives actually resulted in serious rifts     
      between the two countries. Lukashenko publicly attacked Russia*s        
      leadership, and Russia responded by cutting off natural gas exports to  
      Belarus. This caused Belarus to seek energy diversification away from   
      Russia, and Minsk signed oil deals with Venezuela. These tensions that  
      we saw between Belarus and Russia were not so much a true rupture but   
      rather Belarus trying to get bargaining chips in order to get a better  
      deal with Russia. We actually saw such a deal take place last week      
      when both countries agreed on their customs union spat, and Russia      
      gave in slightly to Belarus* demands (though not completely on the      
      energy export tariffs).                                                 
                                                                              
      It is also worth noting that throughout all of these rifts that we saw  
      in 2010, the security relationship between the two countries only       
      strengthened. There were never any sort of rifts; Belarus never talked  
      about joining NATO; and the countries signed multiple deals through     
      the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and through          
      bilateral military agreements. Fundamentally, Belarus is truly          
      integrated into Russia from an economic standpoint, but even more so    
      from a military standpoint. And this is something that the elections    
      we are going to see this weekend will not change.                       
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 15, 2010 5:06:08 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: German Domestic Politics and the Eurozone Crisis

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     German Domestic Politics and the Eurozone Crisis                         
                                                                              
      December 15, 2010 | 2143 GMT                                            
      German Domestic Politics and the Eurozone Crisis                        
      ODD ANDERSEN/AFP/Getty Images                                           
      German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the Chancellery in Berlin on Dec.    
      15                                                                      
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      Germany*s Lander of Hamburg will hold an election Feb. 20, 2011, after  
      a political crisis led to the dissolution of its parliament. The next   
      month, three other Landers will hold elections. The domestic political  
      situation will distract Berlin from other matters, particularly as      
      German Chancellor Angela Merkel*s Christian Democratic Union is         
      attempting to hold on to coalition governments in three of the four     
      Landers holding elections. With Germany bogged down in domestic         
      political campaigning, Merkel may be less able to focus on managing     
      the eurozone crisis.                                                    
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      A political crisis in the German Lander of Hamburg (the city has the    
      status of a Lander, or state) led the Lander*s legislature to dissolve  
      itself after the Christian Democratic Union (CDU)-Green party           
      coalition collapsed. New elections are scheduled for Feb. 20, 2011,     
      approximately a month before three other Landers hold elections.        
                                                                              
      The elections raise the likelihood that Germany will be embroiled in    
      domestic political campaigning from now until April. This will make it  
      more difficult for German Chancellor Angela Merkel to focus solely on   
      managing the eurozone crisis, as illustrated by the elections held in   
      North Rhine-Westphalia in May amid the Greek sovereign debt crisis.     
                                                                              
       Germany*s Lander Elections                                             
                                                                              
      German Landers are politically some of the most powerful federal        
      entities in a major Western democracy. The Lander legislatures are      
      directly represented in the Bundesrat * colloquially referred to as     
      Germany*s upper house * by representatives whose voting powers are      
      based on their Lander*s population. The political balance in the        
      Bundesrat therefore directly depends on the makeup of the Lander        
      legislatures, giving both the legislatures and Lander prime ministers   
      considerable federal influence. The Landers are also in charge of a     
      substantial portion of the German budget * the central government only  
      accounts for around 30 percent of total government revenue * as well    
      as how EU funds are distributed in the country.                         
                                                                              
      Hamburg*s election takes place not long before regularly scheduled      
      elections in the Landers of Saxony-Anhalt (March 20),                   
      Baden-Wurttemberg (March 27) and Rhineland-Palatinate (March 27).       
      Merkel*s CDU is in a coalition government in both Saxony-Anhalt and     
      Baden-Wurttemberg, as well as in Hamburg. The CDU-Green coalition in    
      Hamburg was in fact considered the test case for a potential national   
      coalition between the two parties at some point in the future. That it  
      prematurely failed illustrates the fundamental differences between the  
      two parties. The CDU*s only partners at the federal level are its       
      Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, and the Free         
      Democratic Party (FDP).                                                 
                                                                              
      The Lander elections are important because they will force Merkel to    
      concentrate on campaigning instead of on managing the ongoing eurozone  
      crisis. The last time the German chancellor did that * in early 2010,   
      ahead of the May 9 elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, which the CDU   
      lost * she was forced to talk tough on the possibility of a Greek       
      bailout. Voters of the center-right CDU are traditionally more          
      skeptical of Germany*s leadership role in the European Union if that    
      role means signing checks for the rest of Europe. Merkel was therefore  
      caught having to speak to two audiences, as a high-ranking German       
      diplomat recently told STRATFOR * having to reassure investors and      
      fellow EU countries that Germany would stand by the euro while          
      reassuring CDU voters that Berlin would not spend a pfennig on bailing  
      out the Greeks. It is not surprising that the European Union finalized  
      the Greek bailout on May 10, the day after the CDU lost the North       
      Rhine-Westphalia elections. The Greek crisis, however, started in       
      January, and the extra four months probably raised the price of the     
      eventual bailout.                                                       
                                                                              
      Following two bailouts and the setting up of the 440 billion euro       
      ($580 billion) European Financial Stability Facility, it is not clear   
      that the electorate will force Merkel to take as tough of a stance      
      this time around. However, the situation in the eurozone is still       
      unclear. Following the Irish bailout, the financial situations in       
      Portugal, Spain and increasingly Belgium are coming into focus. Every   
      small issue seems to make investors nervous, and the euro is in the     
      focus daily. Berlin*s leadership is therefore still needed, and the     
      prospect of Merkel*s having to deal with two audiences again * even if  
      the rhetoric is not as sharp as before the Greek bailout * is not       
      reassuring.                                                             
                                                                              
       Problems for Merkel*s Party                                            
                                                                              
      Causing further concern is the CDU*s unpopularity in polls despite its  
      considerable domestic economic successes. The latest nationwide         
      figures show the center-left Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the      
      Green party together ahead of the CDU and its partner, the FDP. The     
      latter is threatened with not even crossing the 5 percent               
      parliamentary threshold and is facing a leadership crisis, with calls   
      within the FDP for the incumbent, German Foreign Minister Guido         
      Westerwelle, to resign. Meanwhile, Germany*s economy is expected to     
      grow around 3.6 percent in 2010, a number that far outpaces the rest    
      of the developing countries, especially in Europe. Furthermore,         
      unemployment in Germany has actually reduced since the economic         
      recession, down from 8.4 percent in 2007 to 7.1 percent in 2010 *       
      compare that with the United States, which has seen unemployment grow   
      from 4.6 percent in 2007 to 9.7 percent in 2010. The positive           
      unemployment figure is largely the function of the short-shift scheme   
      implemented by the CDU-FDP federal government, which allowed employers  
      to keep on their labor force due to government support. Most Western    
      politicians would feel secure in their position with that kind of       
      economic performance amid uncertain economic times.                     
                                                                              
      Considering the German economy*s performance, the CDU*s poor poll       
      numbers suggest that one of the reasons its voters are losing patience  
      is Merkel*s performance on the European stage, particularly the         
      extension of two bailouts to peripheral states. A June poll in Germany  
      supports this claim, with as much as 50 percent of the population in    
      favor of going back to the deutsche mark, despite the benefits the      
      euro has afforded the German economy. The danger for Europe is that     
      Merkel and the CDU will attempt to compensate for the poor national     
      polling by campaigning hard to their voters in the upcoming four        
      Lander elections * the same strategy employed for the North             
      Rhine-Westphalia elections * to the extent that the CDU-FDP government  
      will remain committed to not extending a blank check to fellow          
      eurozone countries.                                                     
                                                                              
      An even greater destabilizing move would be if Merkel feels compelled   
      to call early federal elections if the CDU performs poorly again in     
      the Lander elections * her predecessor, Gerhard Schroeder, did the      
      same after his SDP lost the North Rhine-Westphalia elections in 2005.   
      This is not expected; early elections are frowned upon in Germany, and  
      governments are expected to last their entire term. However, were it    
      to happen, it would launch Germany into a period of introspection and   
      limit its ability to put out fires on the Continent.                    
                                                                              
      German politics could therefore add another variable to the already     
      long list of potential issues for the eurozone in 2011.                 
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 15, 2010 5:19:47 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: China Security Memo: Dec. 15, 2010

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     China Security Memo: Dec. 15, 2010                                       
                                                                              
      December 15, 2010 | 2256 GMT                                            
      China Security Memo: Dec. 15, 2010                                      
                                                                              
       IED Gang Arrested                                                      
                                                                              
      A group of nine people suspected of building and detonating small       
      improvised explosives devices (IEDs) in Wuhan, Hubei province, was      
      arrested on Dec. 5 and 6, local media reported Dec. 10. The intentions  
      of the group are still unclear, but it appears Wuhan police were        
      successful in stopping them before they killed or injured anyone.       
                                                                              
      Naturally, all governments view the construction or deployment of IEDs  
      within their territory as a potential threat. But the threat is         
      particularly pronounced in a country * like China * concerned that      
      dissident groups, such as ethnic minorities like the Uighurs, may use   
      these weapons to voice their grievances through violence. While IEDs    
      are not common in China, a number of recent incidents have been         
      reported.                                                               
                                                                              
      A small explosive device was set off in Hankou district in the center   
      of Wuhan on Nov. 26. The explosion broke nearby windows, including      
      those of a passing car, but caused no injuries. Two similar explosions  
      occurred in Qiaokou and Zongguan districts later that day. Again, no    
      one was hurt, and police began to suspect the same group was            
      responsible.                                                            
                                                                              
      A team of 60 Wuhan police officers were involved in the investigation.  
      They first began examining taxi records and closed-circuit              
      surveillance cameras. By Dec. 5 they tracked down two suspects, who     
      were found with homemade explosives and a radio in their vehicle.       
      Likely using information gathered from the first two suspects           
      arrested, police located six more individuals the next day, who were    
      found with homemade explosives, a bow and arrows, knives, and other     
      items. Soon after, they arrested the final suspect who was found with   
      homemade explosives and a pistol with five rounds of ammunition.        
                                                                              
      The police claim that the suspects confessed to building the IEDs from  
      fireworks and gunpowder (though it may have been powder from the        
      fireworks, not black powder) and said they were testing the devices     
      for use in larger crimes. Police did not detail the group*s plans, but  
      given the contraband reportedly found in their possession, they were    
      most likely involved in organized crime. The nine suspects are all      
      migrants from other areas of China; however, they are also all Han      
      Chinese * the dominant ethnic group in China * and thus not likely      
      motivated by ethnic grievances.                                         
                                                                              
      Another small device was found in Liberation Park in Wuhan on Nov. 30,  
      and police have not said whether they believe the group was             
      responsible for the device, though the suspects were not detained at    
      the time. It should be noted that two of the most widely publicized     
      explosions in recent months * one at a tax office in the nearby city    
      of Changsha and the probable accidental explosion in a Guizhou          
      Internet cafe * have not been linked to the group.                      
                                                                              
      The individuals arrested appeared to have been testing different        
      methods for constructing IEDs * a common phase for any militant group,  
      as well as organized criminal gangs, who use explosive devices as a     
      threat. However, they do not appear to have developed any serious       
      capabilities, and the fact that they were quickly caught means they     
      did not practice careful countersurveillance tradecraft. While the      
      abilities of this group appear to have been limited * and while the     
      group*s were arrested relatively soon after they began setting off      
      explosives * the attention the case received from Chinese media and     
      police highlights the government*s concerns of the risks homemade       
      explosive devices pose.                                                 
                                                                              
       Mentally Disabled Slave Labor                                          
                                                                              
      Authorities shut down a factory for using slave labor in Toksun         
      county, near Turpan, Xinjiang Autonomous Region, on Dec. 14. Eleven     
      workers, eight of whom were mentally disabled, had been working for up  
      to four years in harsh conditions without pay. The discovery            
      underscores the ability of employers to skirt business regulations,     
      especially because the rights of the mentally disabled are often        
      ignored in China.                                                       
                                                                              
      The Jiaersi Green Construction Material Chemical Factory produces       
      talcum powder and quartz sand in an isolated village in Xinjiang for    
      construction projects. The factory owner, Li Xinglin, claimed he        
      signed a contract with an aid agency that runs a shelter based in       
      Sichuan province. He paid the shelter 9,000 yuan (about $1,350) to      
      deliver five mentally disabled workers, and paid an additional 300      
      yuan per worker each month. After the factory was exposed Dec. 12, its  
      owner and employees attempted to flee. Li was arrested Dec. 14 at 8:30  
      p.m. along with his son, Li Chenglong, in Chengdu, Sichuan province,    
      with a separate group of mentally disabled workers. The night before,   
      the shelter owner, Zeng Lingquan, was also arrested in Quxian county,   
      Sichuan province, for not properly registering with the Civil Affairs   
      Bureau. The incident was exposed after reporters from Xinjiang          
      Metropolis News received a tip about the factory and went to            
      investigate. They claimed they were investigating pollution in order    
      to gain entry into the factory and observe its workers. Following       
      their reports, police were sent in and the factory was shut down.       
                                                                              
      China has long ignored the problems facing its mentally disabled        
      citizens, which makes it easier for employers to exploit them by        
      circumventing labor regulations. As this case demonstrates, slave       
      labor still exists in isolated pockets across China. This should not    
      be a major concern for those doing business in China, as the practice   
      is not common and the major factories, especially in coastal            
      provinces, are inspected. However, when partnering with a Chinese       
      factory, foreign businesses and factory management should develop       
      internal inspection procedures to ensure that oversights (or bribes to  
      ensure oversights) of Chinese government inspectors are not missed.     
                                                                              
      China Security Memo: Dec. 15, 2010                                      
      (click here to view interactive map)                                    
                                                                              
         Dec. 9                                                               
                                                                              
        * A group led by an American citizen was convicted of selling         
          counterfeit pharmaceuticals across China. The American (presumably  
          of Chinese descent) was sentenced in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province,   
          to 10 years in prison and fined 84 million yuan (about $12.6        
          million). Three other individuals found guilty were sentenced to    
          between five and six years in prison and fined between 50,000 and   
          250,000 yuan. They used the Internet to market the drugs they       
          produced in Zhejiang.                                               
        * Beijing police arrested eight foreign prostitutes, their foreign    
          pimp and twelve Chinese citizens involved in advertising their      
          services. The group was housed in a rented apartment in Chaoyang    
          district and met customers at hotels across the city. Police said   
          the prostitutes and their pimp were from Europe, but gave no        
          further details.                                                    
        * Police arrested 68 people in a nine-month counternarcotics          
          operation centered in Meishan, Sichuan province. Four different     
          distribution rings were busted that had produced 40.35 kilograms    
          (about 90 pounds) of methamphetamine and 3.5 metric tons of         
          ephedrine. Police seized six guns and froze bank accounts holding   
          11.2 million yuan.                                                  
        * Qin Yongming, one of the founders of the Democratic Party of        
          China, was summoned to a police station in Wuhan, Hubei province,   
          the Apple Daily of Hong Kong reported. The summons likely relates   
          to his criticism of China*s treatment of 2010 Nobel Peace Prize     
          winner Liu Xiaobo.                                                  
                                                                              
         Dec. 10                                                              
                                                                              
        * A former member of Tianjin*s Standing Committee was sentenced to    
          death for accepting bribes. Between 1995 and 2005, Pi Qiansheng     
          held various management positions in Tianjin and its New Economic   
          Zones. He accepted 7 million yuan from Wu Xiaohua to use Tianjin*s  
          resources to buy shares in Wu*s company, which had no assets.       
        * Forty members of an organized crime group led by brothers named     
          Que were found guilty of gang-related crimes in Chongqing. The      
          brothers were sentenced to death, and the rest of the group awaits  
          sentencing. They opened an illegal gambling house and were          
          involved in violent crimes.                                         
                                                                              
         Dec. 13                                                              
                                                                              
        * The wife and child of a well-known dissident from Inner Mongolia    
          may have been arrested. Hohhot police detained the wife and son of  
          Hada, a ethnic Mongol activist in Inner Mongolia, just before he    
          was due to be released Dec. 9 after 15 years in prison for          
          espionage and separatism, according the U.S.-based Southern         
          Mongolian Human Rights Information Center. (It is unclear whether   
          Hada had already been released and was re-arrested with his         
          family, or whether he remained jailed the entire time.) An          
          anonymous user of the foreign-based website Boxun.com posted a      
          picture of Hada with his family members dated Dec. 10. Their        
          whereabouts are currently unknown, and they have not been heard     
          from by friends or family.                                          
        * A former director of the Public Security Bureau of Ma*anshan,       
          Anhui province, was sentenced to 16 years in jail for accepting     
          bribes and holding property of unknown origin. He was convicted of  
          accepting bribes of more than 5 million yuan in return for helping  
          others* business operations.                                        
        * Guangxi province border police based in Chongzuo arrested four      
          suspects and seized 15 kilograms of heroin. The case is under       
          investigation.                                                      
        * A cinema employee was convicted in Beijing of illegally selling     
          vouchers redeemable for movie tickets and sentenced to seven years  
          in jail. The man sold vouchers for a 450,000-yuan profit in June    
          and July of 2009.                                                   
        * Three drug traffickers were arrested in a raid in Shanghai in       
          which 2 kilograms of narcotics were seized. Police also seized      
          180,000 yuan in cash.                                               
                                                                              
         Dec. 14                                                              
                                                                              
        * A former party secretary of Dao county, Hunan province, was         
          convicted of illegal land acquisition and bribery. The man          
          illegally approved the land acquisition of a company in which he    
          held stock and accepted 15 million yuan in bribes. He will be       
          sentenced at a later date.                                          
        * The Ministry of Public Security announced a crackdown on            
          counterfeit documents sold over the Internet. It asked e-commerce   
          websites, online forums, and search engines to delete all postings  
          that involve counterfeit documents. It also promised to increase    
          government supervision. Counterfeit documents are used for many     
          purposes * recently some were used by workers get out of work in    
          order to watch the 2010 World Cup.                                  
        * A former head of the sales department of Guangxi*s Tobacco          
          Monopoly Bureau was sentenced to 13 years in prison in Nanning,     
          Guangxi province, after being convicted of bribery. The evidence    
          at his trial was based on his diaries detailing bribes and love     
          affairs that were posted online earlier this year. He was found     
          guilty of accepting 695,000 yuan and an apartment in bribes.        
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 15, 2010 6:09:35 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Russia, Turkey Keep Ambitious Energy Projects Alive

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Russia, Turkey Keep Ambitious Energy Projects Alive                      
                                                                              
      December 16, 2010 | 0000 GMT                                            
      Russia and Turkey Keep 2 Ambitious Energy Projects Alive                
      MUSTAFA OZER/AFP/Getty Images                                           
      Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin (L) and Turkish Energy        
      Minister Taner Yildiz at a press conference Dec. 15                     
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      Russia*s energy minister and a deputy prime minister traveled to        
      Istanbul on Dec. 15 to meet with the Turkish energy minister and        
      representatives of Turkish energy firms. On the agenda is a proposed    
      $20 billion, 4.8-gigawatt nuclear power plant in Turkey and an oil      
      pipeline that would connect Turkey*s Samsun and Ceyhan ports from       
      north to south. Political motivations are driving Russia and Turkey to  
      keep the plans alive and begin negotiating ownership rights, but        
      STRATFOR remains deeply skeptical of the projects* financial            
      viability.                                                              
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      An energy summit took place Dec. 15 in Istanbul involving Russian       
      Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor      
      Sechin, Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz and representatives of     
      Turkish energy firms. The meetings centered on ownership rights for     
      two ambitious energy projects * a massive $20 billion, 4.8-gigawatt     
      nuclear power plant in southern Turkey and a 1 million barrel-per-day   
      oil pipeline connecting Turkey*s Black Sea port of Samsun to its        
      Mediterranean port of Ceyhan.                                           
                                                                              
      Both projects face glaring obstacles. One has to do with cost. At $20   
      billion, the nuclear power plant would be the largest and most          
      expensive ever constructed. Russia does not have a reputation for       
      actually putting up the cash to fund such mega-projects. To put this    
      in perspective, the possible $20 billion cost is close to what Russia   
      intends to spend on a massive economic modernization program at home.   
      Not only is the modernization drive taking place on Russian soil, it    
      also serves a critical geopolitical interest to revitalize              
      long-neglected sectors of the Russian economy. Spending billions of     
      dollars on a nuclear power plant for another country, particularly a    
      historical rival like Turkey, would mark an unprecedented display of    
      Russian generosity.                                                     
                                                                              
      There are no indications that Turkey will be willing or able to cover   
      the costs of these projects, either. Though Turkey has talked more      
      seriously in recent years about incorporating nuclear energy into its   
      energy security strategy, there is no real urgency to see these plans   
      through. Turkey already transits more than three times the amount of    
      oil it uses, even without Iraq*s oil industry running at full           
      capacity. Turkey*s largest energy project to date, the                  
      Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) crude-oil pipeline, took more than a decade   
      to negotiate and construct and cost $3.9 billion, the bulk of which     
      was financed by the International Finance Corporation, the European     
      Bank for Reconstruction and Development and a number of export credit   
      agencies.                                                               
                                                                              
      Still, both countries are highlighting these energy projects as proof   
      that their relationship is strong. Doing so allows Turkey to play its   
      regional balancing act, serving as an energy hub for Europe to          
      diversify its energy sources away from Russia while using its own       
      energy ties with Russia to avoid a broader confrontation with the       
      Kremlin. Meanwhile, Russia does not want to give Turkey a reason to     
      entertain other projects like the BTC pipeline that would further       
      undermine Moscow*s energy stranglehold over Europe.                     
                                                                              
      Mega-energy projects with Turkey, or at least talks about them, allow   
      Russia to maintain a close relationship with Turkey while keeping       
      Turkey dependent on Russia for energy. Turkey currently relies on       
      Russia for 60 percent of its energy needs and, while it may seem that   
      Turkey could lessen that dependency through the development of nuclear  
      power, Russia is ensuring that Turkey will need to rely on Russia for   
      the technology and maintenance of the theoretical nuclear power plant.  
                                                                              
      For now, such significant complications are being put aside. The        
      discussions in Istanbul on Dec. 15 focused on ownership rights, with    
      various energy firms wrangling for a stake in the two projects. Under   
      the terms of the nuclear agreement, a Turkish firm will have no more    
      than a 49 percent stake, which STRATFOR sources in Turkey*s energy      
      industry claim will be slightly above 30 percent. As far as the         
      Samsun-Ceyhan pipeline project is concerned, negotiations continue      
      between Turkish Calik Energy, Russian Transneft and Italian ENI.        
      Questions remain over the ownership and financial aspects of the        
      pipeline project, but STRATFOR has received indications that both       
      Calik and Transneft are currently trying to gain the upper hand by      
      getting a majority of the shares and leaving ENI with a smaller piece   
      in case the project becomes more viable.                                
                                                                              
      Negotiations will drag on mainly for political reasons, and STRATFOR    
      will be watching to see if the economics surrounding these deals        
      eventually trump the politics behind them.                              
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
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      (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 16, 2010 3:55:54 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Security Weekly : Mexico and the Cartel Wars in 2010

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Mexico and the Cartel Wars in 2010                                       
                                                                              
      December 16, 2010                                                       
                                                                              
      China and its Double-edged Cyber-sword                                  
                                                                              
      Editor*s Note: This week*s Security Weekly is a heavily abridged        
      version of STRATFOR*s annual report on Mexico*s drug cartels. The full  
      report, which includes far more detail and diagrams depicting the       
      leadership of each cartel along with our updated cartel map, will be    
      available to our members on Dec. 20.                                    
                                                                              
      By Scott Stewart                                                        
                                                                              
      Related Link                                                            
        * Mexican Drug Cartels: Two Wars and a Look Southward                 
      Related Special Topic Page                                              
        * Tracking Mexico*s Drug Cartels                                      
                                                                              
      In our 2010 annual report on Mexico*s drug cartels, we assess the most  
      significant developments of the past year and provide an updated        
      description of the dynamics among the country*s powerful                
      drug-trafficking organizations, along with an account of the            
      government*s effort to combat the cartels and a forecast of the battle  
      in 2011. The annual cartel report is a product of the coverage          
      STRATFOR maintains on a weekly basis through our Mexico Security Memo   
      as well as other analyses we produce throughout the year. In response   
      to customer requests for more and deeper coverage of Mexico, STRATFOR   
      will also introduce a new product in 2011 designed to provide an        
      enhanced level of reporting and analysis.                               
                                                                              
      In 2010, the cartel wars in Mexico have produced unprecedented levels   
      of violence throughout the country. No longer concentrated in just a    
      few states, the violence has spread all across the northern tier of     
      border states and along much of both the east and west coasts of        
      Mexico. This year*s drug-related homicides have surpassed 11,000, an    
      increase of more than 4,400 deaths from 2009 and more than double the   
      death toll in 2008.                                                     
                                                                              
      Mexico and the Cartel Wars in 2010                                      
                                                                              
       Cartel Dynamics                                                        
                                                                              
      The high levels of violence seen in 2010 have been caused not only by   
      long-term struggles such as the fight between the Sinaloa Federation    
      and the Vicente Carrillo Fuentes Organization (also known as the        
      Juarez cartel) for control of the Juarez smuggling corridor but also    
      from the outbreak of new conflicts among various players in the cartel  
      landscape. For example, simmering tensions between Los Zetas and their  
      former partners in the Gulf cartel finally boiled over and quickly      
      escalated into a bloody turf war along the U.S.-Tamaulipas state        
      border. The conflict has even spread to states like Nuevo Leon,         
      Hidalgo and Tabasco and has given birth to an alliance between the      
      Sinaloa Federation, the Gulf cartel and La Familia Michoacana (LFM)     
      called the New Federation.                                              
                                                                              
      Last December, it appeared that Los Zetas were poised to make a move    
      to assume control over much, if not all, of the Gulf cartel*s           
      territory. The Gulf cartel knew it could not take on Los Zetas alone    
      with its current capabilities so in desperation it reached out to its   
      main rivals in Mexico * the Sinaloa Federation and LFM * for help,      
      thus forming the New Federation. With the added resources from the New  
      Federation, the Gulf cartel was able to take the fight to Los Zetas     
      and actually forced its former partners out of one of their             
      traditional strongholds in Reynosa. The New Federation also expanded    
      its offensive operations to other regions traditionally held by Los     
      Zetas, namely the city of Monterrey and the states of Nuevo Leon,       
      Hidalgo and Veracruz.                                                   
                                                                              
      This resulted in Los Zetas being pushed back on their heels throughout  
      the country, and by June it looked as if Los Zetas* days might be       
      numbered. However, a chain of events that began with the July 28 death  
      of Sinaloa Federation No. 3 Ignacio *El Nacho* Coronel served to        
      weaken the alliance and forced the Sinaloa and LFM to direct attention  
      and resources to other parts of the country, thus giving Los Zetas      
      some room to regroup. The situation along the border in eastern Mexico  
      is still very fluid and the contest between the Gulf cartel and Los     
      Zetas for control of the region will continue in 2011.                  
                                                                              
      Mexico and the Cartel Wars in 2010                                      
      (click here to enlarge image)                                           
                                                                              
      The death of Arturo Beltran Leyva in December 2009 in a Mexican marine  
      raid led to a vicious battle between factions of the Beltran Leyva      
      Organization (BLO) for control of the group, pitting Arturo*s brother,  
      Hector Beltran Leyva, against Arturo*s right-hand man, Edgar *La        
      Barbie* Valdez Villarreal. The war between the two BLO factions ended   
      with the arrests of the leadership of the Valdez Villarreal faction,    
      including La Barbie himself on Aug. 30, and this faction has been       
      heavily damaged if not completely dissolved. Hector*s BLO faction       
      adopted the name Cartel Pacifico Sur (CPS), or the South Pacific        
      Cartel, to distance itself from the elements associated with Valdez     
      that still clung to the BLO moniker. The CPS has aligned itself with    
      Los Zetas against Sinaloa and LFM and has actively fought to stake a    
      claim to the Colima and Manzanillo regions in addition to making        
      inroads in Michoacan.                                                   
                                                                              
      After being named the most violent organized-crime group in Mexico by   
      former Mexican Attorney General Eduardo Medina Mora in 2009, LFM has    
      been largely a background player in 2010 and was active on two main     
      fronts: the offensive against Los Zetas as part of the New Federation   
      in northeastern Mexico and the fight against elements of the CPS and    
      Los Zetas in southern Michoacan and Guerrero states, particularly       
      around the resort area of Acapulco. LFM and CPS have been locked in a   
      heated battle for supremacy in the Acapulco region for the past two     
      years and this conflict shows no signs of stopping, especially since    
      the CPS appears to have recently launched a new offensive against LFM   
      in the southern regions of Michoacan. Additionally, after the death of  
      Sinaloa leader El Nacho Coronel in July and the subsequent              
      dismantlement of his network, LFM attempted to take over the Jalisco    
      and Colima trafficking corridors, reportedly straining relations        
      between the Sinaloa Federation and LFM.                                 
                                                                              
      LFM has been hard hit in the latter months of 2010, its losses on the   
      battlefield amplified by the arrest of several senior operatives in     
      early December. The Dec. 10 death of LFM spiritual leader Nazario *El   
      Mas Loco* Moreno Gonzalez will further challenge the organization, and  
      STRATFOR will be carefully watching LFM over the next several weeks     
      for additional signs that it is collapsing.                             
                                                                              
      Two former heavyweights on the Mexican drug-trafficking scene have      
      continued a declining trajectory in 2010: the Vicente Carrillo Fuentes  
      Organization/Juarez cartel (VCF) and the Arellano Felix                 
      Organization/Tijuana cartel (AFO). The VCF continues to lose ground to  
      the Sinaloa Federation throughout Chihuahua state, most notably in the  
      Ciudad Juarez area. The VCF*s influence has largely been confined to    
      the urban areas of the state, Juarez and Chihuahua, though it appears   
      that its influence is waning even in its traditional strongholds        
      (Sinaloa now appears to be moving narcotics through the Juarez          
      smuggling corridor). Following a bitter war between two factions of     
      the AFO, the organization is a shell of its former self. While the AFO  
      faction under the leadership of Fernando *El Ingeniero* Sanchez         
      Arellano emerged victorious over the faction led by Eduardo *El Teo*    
      Garcia Simental, who was a Sinaloa Federation proxy, it appears that    
      Sanchez Arellano has reached an agreement with Sinaloa and is allowing  
      it to move narcotics through Tijuana.                                   
                                                                              
      In the past, these sorts of agreements have proved to be temporary *    
      one need only look at recent history in Juarez and the cooperation      
      between Sinaloa and the VCF. Because of this, it is likely at some      
      point that the Sinaloa Federation will begin to refuse to pay taxes to  
      the AFO. When that happens, it will be important to see if the AFO has  
      the capability to do anything about it.                                 
                                                                              
      The death of El Nacho Coronel and the damage-control efforts            
      associated with the dismantlement of his network, along with the        
      continued focus on the conflict in Juarez, forced the Sinaloa           
      Federation to pull back from other commitments, such as its operations  
      against Los Zetas as part of the New Federation. On the                 
      business-operations side, Sinaloa has made inroads in other regions     
      and other continents. As noted above, the organization also has         
      reportedly made progress in extending its control over the lucrative    
      Tijuana smuggling corridor and is making significant progress in        
      asserting control over the Juarez corridor.                             
                                                                              
      Over the past few years, Sinaloa has gained control of, or access to,   
      smuggling corridors all along Mexico*s northern border from Tijuana to  
      Juarez. This means that Sinaloa appears to be the group that has fared  
      the best over the past few years amid the intensifying violence. This   
      would apply more specifically to Joaquin *El Chapo* Guzman Loera and    
      his faction of the Sinaloa Federation, which has benefited greatly by   
      events since 2006. In addition to the fall of external foes like the    
      AFO and Juarez cartels, he has seen the downfall of strong Sinaloa      
      personalities who could have risen up to contest his leadership, men    
      like Alfredo Beltran Leyva and El Nacho Coronel. Sinaloa members who    
      attract a lot of adverse publicity for the federation, such as Enrique  
      *El Cumbais* Lopez Acosta also seem to run into bad luck with some      
      frequency. Additionally, STRATFOR sources continue to report a          
      sustained effort by the Sinaloa Federation to expand its logistical     
      network farther into Europe and its influence deeper into Central       
      America and South America.                                              
                                                                              
       Escalation                                                             
                                                                              
      Some of the groups that have borne the brunt of the cartel wars, such   
      as Los Zetas, the AFO and the VCF, have seen a decrease in their        
      ability to move narcotics. This has forced them to look for other       
      sources of income, which typically means diversifying into other        
      criminal enterprises. A steady stream of income is important for the    
      cartels because it takes a lot of money to hire and equip armed         
      enforcer units required to guard against incursions from rival cartels  
      and the Mexican government. It also takes money to purchase narcotics   
      and to maintain the networks required to smuggle them from South        
      America into the United States. This reliance on other criminal         
      enterprises to generate income is not a new development for cartel      
      groups. Los Zetas have long been active in human smuggling, oil theft,  
      extortion and contract enforcement, while the VCF and AFO have          
      traditionally been involved in extortion and kidnap-for-ransom          
      operations. However, as these groups found themselves with their backs  
      against the wall in 2010, they began to escalate their criminal         
      fundraising operations. This increase in extortion and kidnapping has   
      had a noticeable effect on businesses and wealthy families in several   
      cities, including Monterrey, Mexico*s industrial capital. The wave of   
      kidnapping in Monterrey even led to the U.S. Consulate in Monterrey     
      ordering the departure of all minor dependents of U.S. government       
      personnel beginning in September.                                       
                                                                              
      Some of the more desperate cartel groups also began to employ           
      improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in 2010. The VCF has made no        
      secret about its belief that the Federal Police are working for and     
      protecting the Sinaloa Federation in Juarez. Following the July 15      
      arrest of a high-ranking VCF lieutenant, VCF enforcers from La Linea    
      conducted a fairly sophisticated ambush directed against the Federal    
      Police using a small IED hidden inside a car containing a cadaver that  
      the attackers called in to police. The blast killed two Federal Police  
      agents and injured several more at the scene. La Linea attempted to     
      deploy another IED under similar circumstances Sept. 10 in Juarez, but  
      Federal Police agents were able to identify the IED and call in the     
      Mexican military to defuse the device. La Linea has threatened to use   
      more and larger IEDs but has yet to follow through on those threats.    
                                                                              
      There were also three small IEDs deployed in Ciudad Victoria,           
      Tamaulipas state, in August. On Aug. 5, a substation housing the rural  
      patrol element of the Municipal Transit Police was attacked with a      
      small IED concealed inside a vehicle. Then on Aug. 27, two other IEDs   
      placed in cars successfully detonated outside Televisa studios and a    
      Municipal Transit Police station in Ciudad Victoria. The Ciudad         
      Victoria IED attacks were never claimed, but Los Zetas are thought to   
      be the culprits. The geographic and cartel-territorial disparity        
      between Ciudad Victoria and Juarez makes it unlikely that the same      
      bombmaker is responsible for all the devices encountered in Mexico      
      this year.                                                              
                                                                              
      To date, the explosive devices deployed by cartel groups in Mexico      
      have been small, and La Linea and the Ciudad Victoria bomber did show   
      some discretion by not intentionally targeting large groups of          
      civilians in their attacks. However, should cartel groups continue to   
      deploy IEDs, the imprecise nature of such devices will increase the     
      risk of innocent civilians becoming collateral damage. This will be     
      especially true if the size of the devices is increased, as La Linea    
      has threatened to do. The cartels clearly have the skills required to   
      build and deploy larger devices should they so choose, and explosives   
      are plentiful and easy to obtain in Mexico.                             
                                                                              
       Outlook                                                                
                                                                              
      The administration of Mexican President Felipe Calderon has dismantled  
      several cartel networks and captured or killed their leaders in 2010,   
      most notably Sinaloa No. 3 Ignacio *El Nacho* Coronel Villarreal and    
      Edgar *La Barbie* Valdez Villarreal. While such operations have         
      succeeded in eliminating several very dangerous people and disrupting   
      their organizations, however, they have also served to further upset    
      the balance of power among Mexico*s criminal organizations. This        
      imbalance has increased the volatility of the country*s security        
      environment by creating a sort of vicious feeding frenzy among the      
      various organizations as they seek to preserve their own turf or seize  
      territory from rival organizations.                                     
                                                                              
      Calderon has also taken steps to shift the focus from the               
      controversial strategy of using the Mexican military as the primary     
      tool to wage war against the cartels to using the newly reformed        
      Federal Police. While the military still remains the most reliable      
      security tool available to the Mexican government, the Federal Police   
      have been given more responsibility in Juarez and northeast Mexico,     
      the nation*s most contentious hot spots. Calderon has also planted the  
      seeds to reform the states* security organizations with a unified       
      command in hopes of professionalizing each state*s security force to    
      the point where the states do not have to rely on the federal           
      government to combat organized crime. Meanwhile, the Mexican Congress   
      has take steps to curb the ability of the president to deploy the       
      military domestically by proposing a National Security Act that would   
      require a state governor or legislature to first request the            
      deployment of the military rather than permitting the federal           
      government to act unilaterally.                                         
                                                                              
      The successes that the Calderon administration has scored against some  
      major cartel figures such as La Barbie and El Nacho in 2010 have        
      helped foster some public confidence in the war against the cartels,    
      but disruptions to the balance of power among the cartels have added    
      to the violence, which is clearly evidenced by the steep climb in the   
      death toll. As long as the cartel landscape remains fluid, with the     
      balance of power between the cartels and the government in a constant   
      state of flux, the violence is unlikely to end or even recede.          
                                                                              
      This means that Calderon is at a crossroads. The increasing level of    
      violence is seen as unacceptable by the public and the government*s     
      resources are stretched to the limit. Unless all the cartel groups can  
      be decapitated and brought under control * something that is highly     
      unlikely given the government*s limitations * the only way to reduce    
      the violence is to restore the balance of power among the cartels.      
      This balance can be achieved if a small number of cartels come to       
      dominate the cartel landscape and are able to conduct business as       
      usual rather than fight continually for turf and survival. Calderon     
      must take steps to restore this balance in the next year if he hopes    
      to quell the violence and give his National Action Party a chance to    
      maintain power in the 2012 Mexican presidential elections. In Mexico,   
      2011 promises to be an interesting year indeed.                         
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 16, 2010 5:53:21 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: China and India: Dragon vs. Elephant

      [IMG]                                                                   
                                                                              
      Thursday, December 16, 2010    [IMG] STRATFOR.COM [IMG] Diary Archives  
                                                                              
                       China and India: Dragon vs. Elephant                   
                                                                              
      Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, a massive diplomatic entourage and a        
      business delegation representing 100 firms arrived in India on          
      Wednesday for a three-day visit. Wen began the visit by addressing      
      concerns over the growing Sino-Indian rivalry, proclaiming that there   
      need be no essential conflict between the Dragon and the Elephant and   
      that Asia has room enough for both of them. After meeting with Indian   
      Premier Manmohan Singh, Wen will travel to Pakistan, a staunch Chinese  
      ally and Indian arch-foe, to emphasize where his deepest commitments    
      lie.                                                                    
                                                                              
      Wen*s visit comes at a time of revived mutual suspicion. Two major      
      incidents in particular have aggravated sore spots in the               
      relationship. Riots in Lhasa, Tibet, in 2008 caused Beijing to worry    
      more about breakaway tendencies in its far western province, whose      
      exiled government is supported by New Delhi. Meanwhile, Pakistan*s      
      continued support of various militant proxies has put the               
      Sino-Pakistani alliance into renewed focus for New Delhi, especially    
      in light of the November 2008 Mumbai attacks.                           
                                                                              
      But alongside these signal events, Beijing*s growing economic clout     
      has led it to expand infrastructure and military installations across   
      its western regions in an attempt to bolster its territorial claims     
      and secure its far-flung provinces from separatist or militant          
      influences. India has bulked up its border infrastructure and security  
      in response. And, perhaps most novel, Beijing*s growing dependency on   
      overseas oil and raw materials has driven it to seek land and sea       
      pathways to the Indian Ocean through closer relations with South Asian  
      states generally and port agreements with Pakistan, Sri Lanka,          
      Bangladesh and Myanmar, leading India to worry it will be encircled     
      and someday threatened by China*s navy.                                 
                                                                              
      Economic growth is one of the primary reasons world powers have         
      courted India this year, with U.S. President Barack Obama and French    
      President Nicolas Sarkozy already having visited. Wen*s trip is no      
      different, and already the two sides claim to have signed nearly 50     
      deals worth an estimated $16 billion if actualized. But deepening       
      economic relations have not eased tensions, especially given the        
      growing Indian trade deficit with China (from a surplus of $832         
      million in 2005 to a deficit of nearly $16 billion in 2009), which Wen  
      acknowledged on the first day of his visit needed to be improved while  
      simultaneously asking for greater market access for Chinese exporters.  
                                                                              
      *Beijing has its mind set on gaining control of land and sea routes to  
      the Indian Ocean and needs internal mobility in its far west to         
      prevent separatism and fortify its borders, and these policies are      
      driving tensions with India higher.*                                    
                                                                              
      While India is keen on displaying its relationship with China as far    
      more cooperative than confrontational, a serious self-critique is       
      developing within New Delhi over its slow reaction to Chinese moves in  
      the Indian periphery. China*s presence may be much more visible now in  
      places like Kashmir, Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka, but      
      that presence was built up methodically over several years. India,      
      with no shortage of issues to keep itself occupied at home, is now      
      finding that it is years behind China in countries that New Delhi       
      would like to believe sit firmly within its sphere of influence.        
                                                                              
      In the past. India could rely on its influence in Tibet to send a       
      warning to China. In fact, External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna       
      aired this threat in a meeting with his Chinese counterpart in          
      November when he said that just as India has been sensitive to Chinese  
      concerns over Tibet and Taiwan, Beijing too should be mindful of        
      Indian sensitivities on Jammu and Kashmir. The problem India has now    
      is that this warning simply does not carry as much weight as it did.    
      China has made considerable progress in building up the necessary       
      political, economic and military linkages into Tibet to deny the        
      Indians opportunities to needle Beijing in critical buffer territory.   
      Moreover, India has not been able to invest the necessary time and      
      effort into strengthening competitive relationships in more distant     
      places like Southeast Asia and Taiwan * and has only begun with Japan   
      * that would deeply unsettle Beijing. In fact, a discussion is taking   
      place within some military circles in India over how China may be       
      deliberately playing up issues on its land borders in Kashmir and       
      Arunachal Pradesh to divert India*s attention northward while China     
      pursues its objectives in the Indian Ocean basin, something that        
      STRATFOR alluded to when the stapled visa issue flared up in the        
      summer.                                                                 
                                                                              
      Yet India is not alone in its alarm. The world is increasingly looking  
      at China not only as a source of growth, but as an independent-minded   
      and potentially unpredictable variable in the international system.     
      Beijing*s increasing boldness has become one of the chief talking       
      points in foreign policy circles, extending beyond international hard   
      bargaining over resources and into China*s conduct around its entire    
      periphery and in international organizations. When India openly         
      worries about China*s intentions in exercising its newly found          
      strengths, it is joined by the likes of Japan, South Korea, Australia,  
      a number of China*s Southeast Asian neighbors and, most important, the  
      United States.                                                          
                                                                              
      The problem for Beijing is that it is ultimately outnumbered, and       
      overpowered, but its attempts to prepare against threats make it        
      appear more threatening. Beijing sees the international coalition       
      forming against it, and in particular fears U.S. attention will soon    
      come to rest squarely on it and that a strategic relationship with      
      India is part of American designs. Hence, Wen has reason to play nice   
      with India, if only to make China appear a more benign player and not   
      hasten India*s moves to counteract it. Nevertheless, Beijing has its    
      mind set on gaining control of land and sea routes to the Indian Ocean  
      and needs internal mobility in its far west to prevent separatism and   
      fortify its borders, and these policies are driving the tensions with   
      India higher. Thus, while India senses Chinese encirclement in South    
      Asia, Beijing senses American encirclement, of which India is only one  
      part. Even with modern technology, the Himalayas remain a gigantic      
      divider. But these two states have fought a border war in the           
      Himalayas before, so the risks are real. Regardless of growing          
      economic cooperation, both sense a growing security threat from the     
      other that cannot be easily allayed.                                    
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 16, 2010 12:00:27 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Mexico's Cautious Economic Approach

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Mexico's Cautious Economic Approach                                      
                                                                              
      December 16, 2010 | 1728 GMT                                            
      Mexico's Cautious Economic Approach                                     
      STEPHEN JAFFE/AFP/Getty Images                                          
      Mexican Central Bank Gov. Agustin Carstens (L), World Bank President    
      Robert Zoellick and International Monetary Fund chief Dominique         
      Strauss-Kahn in Istanbul on Oct. 5, 2009                                
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      Mexico has asked the IMF to expand and extend its flexible credit       
      line. Mexico*s economy is faring well enough that its request probably  
      represents an abundance of caution. The request does, however, reflect  
      ongoing concerns about the global economy. It also reflects Mexican     
      domestic politics.                                                      
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      Mexican President Felipe Calderon announced Dec. 14 that Mexico has     
      asked the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to expand the country*s     
      flexible credit line arrangement from $48 billion to $73 billion and    
      to extend it for two more years.                                        
                                                                              
      Though expanding or extending the existing program would be             
      precautionary, Mexico*s request and the IMF*s receptiveness implicitly  
      acknowledge lingering concerns about the global economy. Should those   
      fears become reality, Mexico would probably lack the capacity to deal   
      with the fallout on its own, and hence its request to the IMF. At the   
      same time, the request also reflects domestic politicking ahead of a    
      busy electoral calendar.                                                
                                                                              
      Introduced in 2009, the IMF*s flexible credit lines (FCL) were          
      designed to assist countries with sound economic fundamentals and       
      strong policy frameworks in preventing crises. FCLs do not represent a  
      restitution program. Establishing a flexible credit line essentially    
      means that the IMF, the keeper of economic orthodoxy, broadly agrees    
      with the qualifying member country*s handling of its economy and        
      macroeconomic policy. The idea is that the IMF*s vote of confidence     
      coupled with available funds should help assuage financing concerns,    
      perhaps preventing the need to actually tap the credit line. Mexico,    
      Poland and Colombia are the only countries with FCLs, none of which     
      has drawn on them. Even so, circumstances beyond a country*s control    
      could endanger that economy*s proper functioning, however               
      well-intentioned its economic policy might be. FCLs thus serve the      
      added benefit of being an (essentially free) insurance policy against   
      those risks.                                                            
                                                                              
      Mexico first established an FCL with the IMF in March. Though Mexico    
      was emerging from the global economic crisis with relatively solid      
      fundamentals, uncertainty over the global economic outlook and the      
      fallout from the financial crisis made it vulnerable to the risks       
      associated with rising investor caution. Depressed economic output in   
      Mexico and the reversal of the typical U.S.-to-Mexico cross-border      
      financial flows, upon which Mexico is highly dependent, meant           
      headaches for Latin America*s second-largest economy. These two issues  
      prompted Mexico to request the expanded and extended FCL, but since     
      then, global risks have evolved.                                        
                                                                              
      Currently, the three main risks to global economic recovery are the     
      sustainability of the fragile U.S. recovery, the fallout from the       
      ongoing European sovereign debt crisis, and the chance China might      
      experience a hard landing. If any one of these risks were to            
      materialize, global economic growth would likely slow and               
      risk-aversion would consequently rise. As Mexico*s economy is           
      capital-poor and export-oriented, any meaningful slowdown in external   
      demand or financing would complicate Mexico*s economic recovery, if     
      not hamstring it.                                                       
                                                                              
      Complicating matters further, all three of these risks exist in an      
      environment where fiscal and monetary stimulus, which did all of the    
      heavy lifting during the crisis, are now ostensibly being withdrawn     
      and phased out. The negative effects on foreign demand and financing    
      of cutting stimulus are the same that would emerge if any of the three  
      main risks to global economic recovery materialized. But while the      
      adverse effects of withdrawing stimulus may * in a vacuum * be less     
      harmful than a derailed U.S. recovery, continued European economic      
      malaise or a Chinese bust, the real concern is that the withdrawal of   
      fiscal and monetary stimulus could set any of those three scenarios in  
      motion.                                                                 
                                                                              
      For the time being, the three main external risks to Mexican economic   
      recovery appear relatively contained. The U.S. government has said it   
      will stand by to support the economy, Europe is (albeit grudgingly and  
      haltingly) taking steps to address government over-indebtedness, and    
      the Chinese apparently are not aiming for a slowdown, decreasing the    
      chances of a hard landing. Moreover, the Mexican government expects     
      economic growth of 5 percent in 2011. Taken together, Mexico*s effort   
      to expand and lengthen its credit line might appear overly cautious.    
      The decision, however, is not purely economic: Domestic political       
      considerations are in play, too.                                        
                                                                              
      Mexico is heading into busy election season, with gubernatorial         
      elections in 2011 and presidential elections in 2012. Politicians,      
      therefore, have every motivation to showcase how well Mexico is doing   
      despite the cartel-related violence that blights some regions. As       
      stated above, expanding and lengthening the FCL shows IMF approval of   
      how Mexico has handled its economy. And that matters not just to        
      international investors, but in the domestic arena. Calderon and other  
      politicians from his ruling National Action Party (PAN) have an         
      obvious interest in showing government strides in improving social and  
      economic conditions in the country and in ensuring the recovery*s       
      sustainability. PAN can use the flexible credit line as evidence their  
      policies are working, and perhaps parlay this into electoral victories  
      in 2011 and 2012.                                                       
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 16, 2010 2:57:23 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: The Continuing Political Crisis in Cote d'Ivoire

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     The Continuing Political Crisis in Cote d'Ivoire                         
                                                                              
      December 16, 2010 | 2014 GMT                                            
      The Continuing Political Crisis in Cote d'Ivoire                        
      ISSOUF SANOGO/AFP/Getty Images                                          
      Ivorian police square off with protesters in Abidjan on Dec. 16         
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      Two weeks after Cote d*Ivoire*s disputed presidential runoff election,  
      protests and clashes occurred throughout the country Dec. 15-16.        
      Supporters of opposition candidate Alassane Ouattara are trying to      
      strike at incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo*s regime. However,         
      without substantial support from outside the country, including a       
      willingness to use direct force, Ouattara has little chance of          
      instigating regime change in Abidjan.                                   
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      Two weeks after a disputed presidential runoff election led incumbent   
      Ivorian President Laurent Gbagbo to have himself sworn in for a new     
      term, the political crisis in Cote d*Ivoire continues, with protests    
      occurring Dec. 15-16 in various parts of the country. Though seemingly  
      the entire international community is pressuring Gbagbo to step down,   
      he maintains control of the Ivorian security forces, and by extension,  
      the heart of the Ivorian economy, making it unlikely that he will give  
      up power any time soon. There is no indication that Alassane Ouattara,  
      widely believed to have defeated Gbagbo in the runoff, will be able to  
      unseat him under the current conditions. With no foreign actors         
      willing to use force to assist Ouattara, it will be up to his own       
      supporters * aided greatly by the pro-Ouattara northern rebel group     
      New Forces * to instigate regime change in Cote d*Ivoire.               
                                                                              
      As the response to the Dec. 15-16 protests have shown, Gbagbo and the   
      Ivorian security forces currently hold the upper hand. Ouattara is not  
      ready to back down though, and the result will be several weeks, if     
      not months, of political limbo in the world*s largest cocoa-producing   
      nation.                                                                 
                                                                              
       Protests and Clashes                                                   
                                                                              
      Hundreds of Ouattara supporters marched Dec. 15 in the official         
      capital of Yamoussoukro. A police officer allegedly killed one          
      protester, and soldiers reportedly injured four others. The next day,   
      protests and clashes occurred between New Forces soldiers and Ivorian   
      troops in the Lacs regional town of Tiebissou and, more prominently,    
      between government security forces and both protesters and New Forces   
      troops in several districts in Abidjan, Cote d*Ivoire*s largest city    
      and economic capital. Three deaths were reported in the working-class   
      district of Adjame, one in Koumassi and three more in Abobo, and riot   
      police fired tear gas at 500 protesters in Treichville. There were      
      also reports of firefights and exchanges of heavy artillery in the      
      area surrounding the Golf Hotel, located in the residential district    
      of Riviera, and where Ouattara*s self-proclaimed Cabinet has been       
      holed up for the past two weeks. U.N. peacekeepers have maintained an   
      armed perimeter around the hotel throughout the political crisis, but   
      actions by New Forces troops at the hotel triggered an engagement with  
      the Ivorian military, which lasted 30-45 minutes. This was likely the   
      cause of the errant rocket-propelled grenade that struck the outer      
      perimeter wall of the U.S. Embassy located nearby; no injuries came of  
      this incident, however, and a State Department spokesman in Washington  
      stated that it was believed to have been unintentional.                 
                                                                              
      The Continuing Political Crisis in Cote d'Ivoire                        
      (click here to enlarge image)                                           
                                                                              
      The aim of the Dec. 16 protests in Abidjan was to reach the             
      headquarters of Ivorian state television channel Radiodiffusion         
      Television Ivoirienne (RTI), located in the upscale Cocody district.    
      There, Ouattara had pledged to install his own RTI director. (Gbagbo    
      has a monopoly on state media, and with the building housing the only   
      two stations currently broadcasting in the country, the target is both  
      strategic and symbolic.) Security forces responded by parking two       
      armored personnel carriers nearby and erecting makeshift barricades     
      made of benches and tables along the street in front of the building.   
      In addition to establishing a static line of defense in front of the    
      RTI headquarters, riot police and Ivorian soldiers were ordered to      
      spread their forces out across Abidjan in an effort to disperse the     
      protesters before they could amass into a significant force.            
                                                                              
      The security forces* strategy was successful; no protesters came close  
      to the Cocody district. Gbagbo and the Ivorian security forces proved   
      again Dec. 16 that they are willing to use deadly force against         
      protesters seeking to overthrow the regime, as more than 18 deaths and  
      90 injuries were reported at the time of this writing (though this      
      number is unconfirmed and came from Ouattara ally Amadou Coulibaly).    
      Riot police and government troops are accused of being responsible for  
      all the deaths so far.                                                  
                                                                              
      While the U.N. Operation in Cote d*Ivoire (UNOCI) has provided          
      perimeter security at the Golf Hotel for the past two weeks, the        
      peacekeeping force refused to provide security for Ouattara*s           
      supporters in the Dec. 16 march. UNOCI spokesman Hamadoun Toure said    
      he *did not know that it was [UNOCI*s] responsibility to secure a       
      street demonstration,* illustrating that while the United Nations *     
      and the international community as a whole * may still favor Ouattara   
      over Gbagbo, it is not prepared to go too far to see him take power.    
                                                                              
       Ouattara*s Disadvantage                                                
                                                                              
      As in almost any African country where the incumbent does not want to   
      leave office, elections, international support and even the backing of  
      a large segment of the country*s own population can only take an        
      opposition politician so far in trying to unseat the regime. Cote       
      d*Ivoire is proving once again just how valuable it is for an           
      incumbent to maintain the loyalty of the armed forces. Gbagbo has       
      this, and Ouattara does not * aside from the New Forces troops, which   
      are no match for the forces at Gbagbo*s disposal.                       
                                                                              
      Another march is currently planned in Abidjan for Dec. 17. This time    
      the target will be the government buildings and presidential palace     
      located in Le Plateau district, which will be even more heavily         
      guarded than the RTI building was Dec. 16. More bloodshed will ensue    
      if the march is not called off, and as of now, there has been no sign   
      that Ouattara*s camp will cancel it. Ouattara*s prime minister,         
      Guillame Soro, who is also the New Forces secretary-general, called     
      for a general *mobilization* of their supporters following the events   
      of Dec. 16, and Ouattara spokesman Patrick Achi vowed that their        
      people would try to seize the RTI headquarters again Dec. 17.           
      Additional bloodshed will trigger even more widespread international    
      criticism of the Gbagbo regime. Nonetheless, Ouattara will remain       
      unlikely to achieve his objectives by waiting on the French or          
      Americans or the countries in the region that have pledged their        
      support to forcibly remove Gbagbo.                                      
                                                                              
      No foreign parties are considering the use of direct force in support   
      of Ouattara. The European Union has levied limited sanctions, and the   
      United States has threatened to follow suit. The African Union (AU)     
      and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have         
      already suspended Cote d*Ivoire. And there has been a move to pressure  
      the Central Bank of West African States * the regional central bank     
      for the eight member states of the West African Economic and Monetary   
      Union, to which Cote d*Ivoire belongs * to stop doing business with     
      the Gbagbo government as well, though the organization*s charter        
      appears to prohibit any action from taking place without a unanimous    
      vote, in which case clearly nothing could get past the Ivorian          
      contingent. But even if it did, the prospect of convincing              
      international cocoa dealers to stop doing business in Ivorian *blood    
      cocoa* is slim to none. As it stands, cocoa prices have risen to        
      four-month highs in the past week, but business is still going on at    
      Ivorian ports, despite minor disruptions.                               
                                                                              
      The likely result is that Ouattara will grudgingly resort to            
      negotiations, despite widespread evidence that he was the actual        
      winner of the runoff. Ouattara can then seek to implement a limited     
      power-sharing deal akin to the one that ended similar crises in Kenya   
      and Zimbabwe in 2008 * something ECOWAS and the AU have said would be   
      an unacceptable solution. Civil war is of course always an option in    
      situations such as these, but it is never the first choice. Ouattara*s  
      options are limited without the prospect of tangible foreign support,   
      and he may be left with no other choice than to concede.                
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 16, 2010 3:34:03 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Dispatch: Venezuelan Presidental Powers Expand

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Dispatch: Venezuelan Presidental Powers Expand                           
                                                                              
      December 16, 2010 | 2126 GMT                                            
      Click on image below to watch video:                                    
      [IMG]                                                                   
                                                                              
      Analyst Reva Bhalla examines Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez*s         
      growing vulnerabilities at home and abroad in light of a new law that   
      will give him expansive executive power.                                
                                                                              
      Editor*s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition       
      technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete         
      accuracy.                                                               
                                                                              
      Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is pushing through a series of         
      legislation this week all designed to enhance his presidential powers   
      while neutralizing the opposition. This is going to be a rough year     
      for the Venezuelan government and Chavez does not seem to be taking     
      any chances.                                                            
                                                                              
      The current session of Venezuela*s National Assembly was set to expire  
      Dec. 15, but the ruling party is pushing through the end of the week    
      in order to cram in as much legislation as possible before the          
      opposition comes in a dilutes the ruling party*s majority in the        
      coming new year. What all of these laws have in common is they are all  
      intended to enhance the powers of the executive branch while trying to  
      meaningfully neutralize the opposition as much as possible.             
                                                                              
      A really interesting law that came up this past week is and was kind    
      of snuck in at the last minute is an Enabling Law for the president to  
      rule by executive decree for up to one year. The law basically allows   
      Chavez to pass whatever he wants as long as it fits into the very       
      ambiguous categories of national security, defense, land use,           
      transport, the financial sector, the housing sector among others.       
      Evidently, the Venezuelan government is expecting a rough year ahead,   
      and for a good reason.                                                  
                                                                              
      The economic decay in Venezuela is becoming increasingly visible, with  
      ongoing money-laundering rackets, exacerbating its already critical     
      conditions of state sectors across the country. But what is being paid  
      less attention to are the vulnerabilities of the Venezuelan regime      
      abroad, particularly concerning its allies in countries like Cuba,      
      China, Iran and Russia. The Cubans can be seen in pretty much any       
      corridor of Venezuelan power. Critically, they have immense leverage    
      over the Venezuelan security apparatus. What that essentially means is  
      that the Cubans are in charge of notifying the president whenever a     
      coup threat arises (and we*ve already rumblings of this in recent       
      weeks).                                                                 
                                                                              
      The Chinese, meanwhile, are pouring billions of dollars of investment   
      into to Venezuelan economy. They*re taking advantage of the Venezuelan  
      government*s vulnerability right now to get extremely favorable terms   
      on a variety of investment deals, most notably in the energy sector.    
      The Iranians have extensive financial links to Venezuela, which allows  
      them to circumvent sanctions. This is an issue that is increasingly     
      attracting the attention of the United States. Critically, there are    
      also signs that the United States is paying more attention to the       
      deepening military linkages between Venezuela and Iran. The Russians    
      maintain a tight defense relationship with the Venezuelans, and they    
      also hold important economic assets in the country. But they know when  
      to keep their distance when they need to.                               
                                                                              
      The biggest problem confronting Chavez right now is that each of these  
      allies has varying interests and varying involvement in Venezuela. At   
      a certain point, those interests could collide, because as the          
      Venezuelan government becomes more vulnerable, those allies are going   
      to be demanding much more of Venezuela and could push things too far.   
                                                                              
      This is something we are starting to see develop, particularly with     
      the Venezuelan relationship with Iran. The Venezuelans also have a      
      considerable reason to worry about Cuba, a country that, strapped for   
      cash, is asking Venezuela for sizable loans that it may not even be     
      able to deliver on. When you consider that Cuba has immense leverage    
      over the Venezuelan security apparatus, and when you consider that      
      threats within the regime are rising, the Cuban factor becomes          
      absolutely critical for the president.                                  
                                                                              
      Chavez may have a lot of friends right now in his time of need; his     
      problem is that the interests of those friends could eventually         
      collide. And in the grand scheme of things, each of these friends       
      could consider Venezuela a dispensable ally.                            
                                                                              
      Click for more videos                                                   
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 16, 2010 4:27:28 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Review Reveals a Sustained U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Review Reveals a Sustained U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan                  
                                                                              
      December 16, 2010 | 1853 GMT                                            
      Review Reveals a Sustained U.S. Strategy in the Afghan War Effort       
      STRATFOR                                                                
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      The White House released an overview Dec. 16 of the review on the       
      strategy in Afghanistan. Not surprisingly, it appears consistent with   
      a decision announced at the November NATO summit in Lisbon to commit    
      U.S. and allied forces to Afghanistan through 2014 and beyond. While    
      the overview did not disclose any information that would suggest a      
      departure from the current U.S. strategy, the question of Pakistan      
      appears to be a point of contention between government expectations     
      and the intelligence community*s predictions.                           
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      An overview of the Afghanistan and Pakistan Annual Review ordered by    
      U.S. President Barack Obama last year as a National Security Staff      
      (NSS)-led assessment of the war effort was released early Dec. 16,      
      with the White House to receive the full report later that day.         
                                                                              
      As expected, the overview does not mark a major shift in the            
      counterinsurgency-focused U.S. strategy in Afghanistan. Rather, it      
      indicates that the review would be consistent with the decision         
      announced by Obama at the NATO summit in Lisbon in November that would  
      commit American combat forces to Afghanistan through 2014.              
                                                                              
      Notably, the overview suggests that the review will open with, and      
      place a great deal of emphasis on, al Qaeda prime, despite the          
      long-standing devolution of the organization and the erosion of the     
      old senior leadership*s operational significance, rather than the       
      Taliban, which is consistent with language from previous presidential   
      statements about the war. While it is a rationale for the war that may  
      resonate better with the American public, some special operations       
      forces in Afghanistan and Pakistan will continue to be devoted to the   
      ongoing hunt for the group that precipitated the U.S. invasion of       
      Afghanistan in the first place.                                         
                                                                              
      The overview concludes with the main effort in Afghanistan: the         
      counterinsurgency against the Taliban. Prevalent throughout the         
      document is the oft-repeated rhetoric of *progress,* *halting and       
      reversing momentum,* and *fragile and reversible* gains, and its        
      release concurrent with a New York Times story touting recent           
      successes against the Taliban in the Afghan southwest is probably not   
      a coincidence. For now, it is simply too early to tell whether          
      progress is actually being made. The surge of forces into Afghanistan   
      has only just been completed, and real progress takes time, as          
      investments in places like Nawa in Helmand have demonstrated).          
                                                                              
      Review Reveals a Sustained U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan                 
                                                                              
      One point of interest, though, is Pakistan. Leaked earlier this week    
      was the existence of a pair of National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs)   
      on Afghanistan and Pakistan that represent the American intelligence    
      community*s consensus. Though public copies do not appear to be         
      available * and the only details are those that sources have chosen to  
      leak * the two NIEs reportedly take a different position on the war     
      effort than that of the Obama administration. The White House review    
      concedes that problems and challenges remain, but cites progress and    
      calls for a more coherent strategy on Pakistan. The information that    
      can be garnered from articles in the media indicate the NIEs seem to    
      consider Pakistan an overwhelming and insurmountable problem, at least  
      in regard to the current counterinsurgency-focused strategy.            
                                                                              
      No one disputes the challenges and issues involved in dealing with      
      Pakistan. Any assistance it can contribute would be beneficial to the   
      U.S. war effort. On the other hand, its inability or unwillingness to   
      work with the United States or others would be enormously detrimental   
      to American efforts in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. However, this is  
      not a new or revelatory diagnosis * it has characterized the            
      U.S.-Pakistani relationship in the entire post-9/11 era. But the        
      distinction between the review and the NIEs is more than a simple       
      matter of emphasis. For the Pentagon and the NSS, the military-led      
      effort in Afghanistan appears to have achievable goals. The             
      intelligence community seems to disagree.                               
                                                                              
      What has been clear since Obama*s announcement in Lisbon was that the   
      review would be consistent with a continuation of the current           
      strategy. A review of the war effort in December 2011 will be           
      interesting, but for the short term, despite being in an active war     
      zone, the United States, for now at least, has already decided its      
      course of action.                                                       
                                                                              
      Indeed, 2011 will not be about whether a certain strategy should be     
      pursued, but giving the forces committed the time to execute the        
      chosen strategy. Pakistan is * and always has been * both central and   
      problematic to U.S. objectives in Afghanistan, a fact that will be as   
      true as ever in 2011. But for now, whatever the new NIEs might argue,   
      the White House appears committed to seeing the current strategy        
      through.                                                                
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 16, 2010 5:33:28 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Jordanian Accused in Yemen Attack

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Jordanian Accused in Yemen Attack                                        
                                                                              
      December 16, 2010 | 2327 GMT                                            
      Yemen                                                                   
      KHALED FAZAA/AFP/Getty Images                                           
      A picture taken on June 11, 2001 shows the U.S. Embassy in Sanaa        
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      A Jordanian man is accused of throwing an improvised explosive device   
      at an armored truck carrying four employees of the U.S. Embassy in      
      Sanaa on Dec. 15, an attack with several indications of involvement by  
      Yemen*s al Qaeda franchise, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).   
      While the attack was a failure * no injuries were reported * the        
      attempt is significant in that the main suspect is Jordanian, an        
      indicator that foreigners are becoming more involved in AQAP            
      operations.                                                             
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      A truck belonging to staff of the U.S. Embassy in Sanaa was damaged in  
      an apparent improvised explosive device (IED) attack Dec. 15. No        
      injuries were reported in the attack despite the employees being in     
      the armored Toyota Hilux pickup at the time. A 28-year-old Jordanian    
      man was arrested shortly after the attack by security personnel near    
      the scene. The man is accused of throwing a satchel containing an IED   
      (though some reports say it was a grenade) either under the truck or    
      in the truck*s bed around 8:30 p.m. local time as the embassy           
      employees visited a restaurant on Hadda Street.                         
                                                                              
      While Hadda Street is on the opposite end of Sanaa from the embassy,    
      the restaurant was near a compound where many American diplomats live.  
      The embassy had been taking precautions by directing Westerners not to  
      frequent restaurants on Hadda Street, specifically mentioning the       
      restaurant the employees were in as one to avoid. The location, target  
      and method of the attack all indicate that al Qaeda in the Arabian      
      Peninsula (AQAP) was involved.                                          
                                                                              
      This attack falls in line with what STRATFOR terms Kramer-type          
      attacks, in which an individual has the desire to carry out an attack   
      but lacks the tradecraft to do so effectively. Authorities arresting    
      the Jordanian man reportedly found four different identification        
      cards, a gun and other explosives, but not a detonator for the          
      exploded device. The attack failed to cause any injuries, though this   
      may be attributed to the vehicle*s armor. In addition, if the           
      Jordanian had wanted to kill more individuals he could have used the    
      gun in his possession or thrown the device inside the restaurant to     
      increase casualties. The assailant did not penetrate any secure areas,  
      instead taking advantage of the soft target presented by U.S. Embassy   
      employees breaking with guidance and going into a more dangerous area.  
      However, the attack*s ineffectiveness indicates the operative lacked    
      significant tradecraft.                                                 
                                                                              
      Jihadists in Yemen have had difficulty in carrying out a successful     
      attack in Sanaa. In March 2008, a mortar attack on the U.S. Embassy     
      failed to hit inside the compound, instead hitting a school next to     
      the embassy. In April 2008, militants fired mortars at an embassy       
      compound but only caused minor damage. In September 2008, AQAP          
      forerunner Islamic Jihad in Yemen carried out a suicide vehicle-borne   
      IED attack outside the embassy, killing 16 people, all of whom were     
      civilians or local police officers outside the embassy walls. The       
      attack marked an increase in Yemeni jihadists* operational              
      capabilities but still failed in its objective of entering the embassy  
      compound before detonating the device. In April 2009, AQAP targeted     
      the South Korean ambassador in an attack that failed to harm any of     
      the intended targets. During this past year, attacks have taken place   
      on the motorcades of the British ambassador and the deputy British      
      ambassador, both of which failed to either kill a high-value target or  
      inflict large numbers of casualties.                                    
                                                                              
      Outside of Yemen, AQAP has shown a similar record of failure in its     
      attacks * most recently, the October 2010 attempt to detonate IEDs on   
      cargo planes bound for the United States. These international attacks,  
      while more elaborate than those carried out inside Yemen, still have    
      failed to cause significant damage.                                     
                                                                              
      However, this attack was significant in that the person accused of      
      being responsible for it is a Jordanian citizen. This is the first      
      time that STRATFOR is aware of a Jordanian conducting an attack in      
      Yemen since AQAP*s formation in 2009. This may indicate that AQAP*s     
      recent attacks and publications such as Inspire magazine have raised    
      the group*s profile to the point where it is becoming a destination     
      for aspiring militants.                                                 
                                                                              
      The country of Yemen itself may also be starting to hold appeal for     
      jihadists. Radical cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, who seems to be leading the  
      jihad against the West, is based there. Also, recent pressure on        
      jihadist groups in Iraq and the Afghanistan-Pakistan border area may    
      have jihadists looking for areas such as Yemen that lack government     
      oversight and the political will to pursue Islamist militants. The      
      country*s appeal to militants from across the region has been well      
      known for some time, but this most recent attack could signal the       
      operational inclusion of foreigners into AQAP attacks.                  
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 17, 2010 7:32:29 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: The Pakistani View of the U.S. Strategy on Afghanistan

      [IMG]                                                                   
                                                                              
      Thursday, December 16, 2010    [IMG] STRATFOR.COM [IMG] Diary Archives  
                                                                              
              The Pakistani View of the U.S. Strategy on Afghanistan          
                                                                              
      The White House on Thursday released an overview of the much awaited    
      Afghanistan and Pakistan Annual Review ordered by U.S. President        
      Barack Obama last year as a National Security Staff (NSS)-led           
      assessment of the war effort. Perhaps the most significant (and         
      expected) aspect of the report is the extent to which the success of    
      the American strategy relies on cooperation from Pakistan. The report   
      acknowledges recent improvement in U.S.-Pakistani coordination in the   
      efforts to bring closure to the longest war in U.S. history, but also   
      points out there is a lot of room for improvement in terms of           
      Pakistani assistance.                                                   
                                                                              
      Indeed, this is an issue that has been at the heart of the tensions     
      between the two allies since the beginning of the war. However, the     
      United States * now more than ever before * needs Pakistan to offer     
      its best, given that Washington has deployed the maximum amount of      
      human and material resources to the war effort that it can feasibly     
      allocate. To what extent such assistance will be forthcoming is a       
      function of how Islamabad is looking at the war.                        
                                                                              
      From the Pakistani point of view, this war has been extremely           
      disastrous. The U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in late 2001 to deny al    
      Qaeda its main sanctuary led to the spillover of the war into           
      Pakistan. Al Qaeda*s relocation east of the Durand Line forced          
      Islamabad to side with Washington against the Afghan Taliban and laid   
      the foundation for the Talibanization of Pakistan.                      
                                                                              
      *What the Pakistanis hope for is some form of negotiated settlement     
      that will help restore some semblance of security on their western      
      periphery and allow for some measure of influence in a post-NATO        
      Afghanistan.*                                                           
                                                                              
      Any Pakistani effort to effectively counter this threat is dependent    
      upon the U.S. strategy on the other side of the border. Just as the     
      United States is dealing with a very difficult situation where it has   
      no good options, Pakistan is also caught in a dilemma. There are two    
      broad and opposing views among the Pakistani stakeholders in regard to  
      what the United States should do that, in turn, would also serve        
      Pakistani interests.                                                    
                                                                              
      On one hand are those who argue that the longer U.S. and NATO forces    
      remain in Pakistan*s western neighbor the longer the wars will          
      continue to rage on both sides of the border. The thinking is that      
      since there is no military solution, Western forces should seek a       
      negotiated settlement and exit as soon as possible. Once a settlement   
      takes place in Afghanistan, Pakistan will be in a better position to    
      neutralize its own Taliban rebellion and restore security on its side   
      of the border.                                                          
                                                                              
      Yet there are those who * while they accept that a continued presence   
      of foreign occupation forces in Afghanistan will continue to fuel the   
      jihadist fire * are more concerned about the ramifications of a         
      premature withdrawal of Western forces. The fear is that a Taliban      
      comeback in Afghanistan will only galvanize jihadists on the Pakistani  
      side. At a time when it is struggling to re-establish its writ on its   
      side of the border, Islamabad is certainly not in a position to exert   
      the kind of influence in Afghanistan it once was able to in the         
      pre-9/11 years.                                                         
                                                                              
      In other words, an exit of foreign forces from Afghanistan will not     
      restore the old arrangement. Islamabad is therefore in uncharted        
      waters. What the Pakistanis hope for is some form of negotiated         
      settlement that will help restore some semblance of security on their   
      western periphery and allow for some measure of influence in a          
      post-NATO Afghanistan. How to get from the current situation to that    
      endgame state is quite opaque and what lies beyond is fraught with      
      uncertainty, given the destabilization that has taken place in the      
      last five years. What makes this situation even more problematic for    
      the Pakistanis is that they feel that they are not the only ones who    
      are without options. Their benefactor, the United States, is in the     
      same boat.                                                              
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 17, 2010 8:55:26 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Venezuela's Chavez Pushes Last-Minute Legislation

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Venezuela's Chavez Pushes Last-Minute Legislation                        
                                                                              
      December 17, 2010 | 1300 GMT                                            
      Venezuela's Chavez Pushes Last-Minute Legislation                       
      YURI CORTEZ/AFP/Getty Images                                            
      Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez waves upon his arrival to the          
      Conference Center to take part in the Union of South American Nations   
      (UNASUR) summit on Nov. 26                                              
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez this week is pushing a series of       
      bills through the National Assembly designed to enhance his executive   
      powers while marginalizing his opposition. As pressures continue to     
      pile on the government, these moves are critical to the president*s     
      preparation for what is shaping up to be a troubled year ahead.         
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      Venezuela*s National Assembly, set to adjourn Dec. 15, will hold its    
      second extra session Dec. 17 as the ruling Partido Socialista Unido de  
      Venezuela (PSUV) tries to push through as much legislation as it can    
      before its majority is diluted when the assembly reconvenes in 2011.    
      The bulk of the legislation, including one law that will allow          
      Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to rule by executive decree for the    
      next year, is designed to enhance the authority of the executive and    
      undercut Chavez*s opposition.                                           
                                                                              
      Though PSUV will still have 98 seats (compared to its previous 137      
      seats) in the 165-seat National Assembly, Chavez appears to be doing    
      everything he can to concentrate power in his hands while he still has  
      the political means to do so. The urgency in pushing through this       
      legislation can be understood in light of rising pressures on the       
      regime stemming from the country*s economic decay, internal political   
      struggles, the Walid Makled threat and growing demands of Venezuela*s   
      allies, most notably Cuba, Iran and China.                              
                                                                              
      The following is a summary of the most critical legislation under       
      review.                                                                 
                                                                              
         Enabling Law for Special Presidential Powers                         
                                                                              
      Summary: This law will provide the president with the power to pass     
      laws by executive decree for a period of up to 12 months. Discussion    
      of this law was mostly kept quiet for the past few months, likely out   
      of a desire by the president to deny his opposition the time to         
      mobilize against it. Under the law, the president would be able to      
      unilaterally issue legislation that falls under the ambiguous           
      categories of national security and defense, national emergencies,      
      natural disaster relief, the use and development of urban and rural     
      land, territorial organization, citizen and judicial security,          
      infrastructure, public transport and services, and financial and        
      housing sectors, among other areas. Since taking office in February     
      1999, Chavez has held special presidential powers on three occasions.   
      The first time was in April 1999 for six months, then in November       
      2001, and most recently in February 2007 for 18 months when he began a  
      campaign of nationalizations.                                           
                                                                              
      Status: Approved in first discussion, pending second discussion set     
      for Dec. 17.                                                            
                                                                              
         Communal Economic System Law                                         
                                                                              
      Summary: This law is part of a package of *People Power* legislation    
      designed to empower thousands of local communes comprised of mostly     
      PSUV sympathizers. By devolving power to the local level and            
      increasing local funding at the expense of state governors and          
      municipal officials, Chavez aims to undercut his opposition and widen   
      the number of Venezuelans dependent on him for their livelihood. This   
      law details how the executive authority will be able to transfer funds  
      directly to the communes for local projects. It also attempts to stem   
      rampant money-laundering rackets that have debilitated state firms by   
      promoting non-monetary trading through an exchange, which allows for    
      the bartering of goods. However, such a system is unlikely to resolve   
      Venezuela*s corruption ailments.                                        
                                                                              
      Status: Passed Dec. 13, the last piece of People Power legislation to   
      be approved.                                                            
                                                                              
         Law on Political Parties, Public Meetings and Demonstrations         
                                                                              
      Summary: This law threatens punishment for politicians that:            
                                                                              
        * Vote against the platform they have presented to voters             
        * Ally themselves with political positions or platforms opposed to    
          what they have presented to voters or the National Electoral        
          Council                                                             
        * Enter alliances with parties opposed to what has been presented to  
          voters or the National Electoral Council as their platform          
        * Attempt to defect from their party                                  
                                                                              
      This appears to be an attempt by the PSUV to prevent large-scale        
      defections, like the one earlier in the year when Lara State governor   
      Henri Falcon left the PSUV to form the Patria Para Todos (PTT) in the   
      opposition.                                                             
                                                                              
      Status: Approved in first debate, awaiting second debate.               
                                                                              
         Reforms to the Law of Social Responsibility in Radio and Television  
         (colloquially known as Ley RESORTE) and Organic Telecommunications   
         Law                                                                  
                                                                              
      Summary: These laws aim to expand the state*s authority over            
      Venezuelan media. Many of the new regulations extend current            
      censorship to Internet service providers and electronic media and       
      specify punishment for media outlets that *disrespect or delegitimize   
      public power and institutions.* The telecommunications law would        
      create a single Internet access point for the state to regulate         
      content. Though the state says this will allow for faster Internet      
      access, critics fear it will expand the state*s monitoring authority    
      over Internet-based communications. The law also prohibits owners of    
      radio and television stations from owning shares in more than one       
      media outlet, a reform that follows the government*s decision in early  
      December to acquire a 20 percent stake in Globovision, the last local   
      television station in Venezuela that presents news critical of the      
      Chavez government.                                                      
                                                                              
      Status: Approved in first discussion, pending second discussion.        
                                                                              
         Oil Service Company Regulation Law                                   
                                                                              
      Summary: This law would enable the government to bypass parliament      
      when it wishes to nationalize the assets of oil and natural gas firms.  
      According to the draft text, ** oil and gas operation assets can be     
      subjected to measures of protection, insurance, requisition and         
      expropriation when the continuity of work is affected ** The law would  
      allow the government to set tariffs for companies, prohibit the         
      relocation of assets outside the country without state permission and   
      prevent recourse to international arbitration in disputes. The law      
      also requires workers at oil facilities to receive permission from the  
      Venezuelan Ministry of Energy to strike and forbids local, state or     
      regional governments from issuing permits for protests within 10        
      kilometers of oil installations, thereby mitigating the threat of       
      disruption to oil production. Such measures are becoming critical for   
      the Venezuelan government to maintain its oil revenues as PDVSA is      
      finding it increasingly difficult to pay the salaries of contract       
      workers who would be prone to striking and halting oil production       
      altogether.                                                             
                                                                              
      Status: Under debate.                                                   
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 17, 2010 9:06:24 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Hezbollah Searches for an Alternative Explosive

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Hezbollah Searches for an Alternative Explosive                          
                                                                              
      December 17, 2010 | 1300 GMT                                            
      Hezbollah Searches for an Alternative Explosive                         
      DAVID BUIMOVITCH/AFP/Getty Images                                       
      Hezbollah grenades and landmines captured by the Israeli military in    
      November 2009                                                           
                                                                              
      A STRATFOR source in Lebanon has reported that Hezbollah is having      
      difficulty obtaining military-grade explosives such as C4 and RDX from  
      foreign sources, forcing it into greater reliance on external supplies  
      of ammonium nitrate (found in common fertilizer). The source says the   
      sealing of the Lebanese coastline by the U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon  
      and Syria*s increasing efforts to cut off Hezbollah*s supply of these   
      explosives in a bid to rein in the organization explain the shortage.   
                                                                              
      Hezbollah*s stockpiling does not necessarily portend widespread         
      violence in Lebanon, however.                                           
                                                                              
       Hezbollah*s Explosive Purchases                                        
                                                                              
      According to the source, Hezbollah pays Syria twice the market price    
      for fertilizer * a common ingredient in ammonium nitrate-based          
      improvised explosive devices (IEDs) * and has bought up to 15,000 tons  
      of fertilizer from Syria*s main petrochemical facility in Homs. Syria   
      then takes the profits and buys cheaper fertilizer from Eastern Europe  
      for its domestic needs.                                                 
                                                                              
      This reportedly explains Hezbollah*s insistence that one of its         
      members be agriculture minister when Lebanese Prime Minister Saad       
      al-Hariri was forming his Cabinet in 2009. Agriculture Minister         
      Hussein Hajj Hassan allegedly sells fertilizer shipments from Syria to  
      Hezbollah agents, who in turn forward them to Hezbollah warehouses.     
                                                                              
      Hezbollah has matured into a well-organized movement with a proven      
      ability to exploit Lebanon*s political fractures to advance its         
      interests. Its ability to find a substitute for military-grade          
      explosives * and its apparent foresight in doing so more than a year    
      ago * demonstrates its sophistication.                                  
                                                                              
      While tensions in Lebanon have escalated over the U.N. Special          
      Tribunal for Lebanon investigation into the assassination of former     
      Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, a number of factors constrain  
      Hezbollah from following through with its threat to destabilize         
      Lebanon should its members face indictment. The same STRATFOR source    
      explained that the fertilizer-based explosives are being used to build  
      tunnels in mountainous areas and held in reserve for possible use       
      against Israeli tanks should the need arise. The current stockpiling    
      thus comprises contingency planning, as neither Hezbollah nor Israel    
      wants a conflict at this time.                                          
                                                                              
       The Pros and Cons of Fertilizer-based IEDs                             
                                                                              
      Building fertilizer-based IEDs poses challenges that using              
      military-grade explosive IEDs do not. Fertilizer-based IEDs require a   
      balanced mixture with fuel, such as diesel, to create ANFO, an          
      ammonium nitrate/fuel oil mixture that can be the basis for deadly      
      explosive devices. Devices with ANFO as the main charge also require a  
      primary charge to initiate detonation * typically consisting of small   
      amounts of military- or commercial-grade explosives. Using ANFO, then,  
      is a way to multiply the effectiveness of small reserves of military-   
      or commercial-grade explosives.                                         
                                                                              
      Given the number of combat veterans of places like Iraq floating        
      around the Middle East, finding someone able to build fertilizer-based  
      IEDs should not be hugely difficult. Failing that, Hezbollah has a      
      wide array of artillery shells, anti-tank rockets and medium-range      
      rockets that could make up for what fertilizer-based IEDs lack.         
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
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      Not For Publication                                                     
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 17, 2010 12:38:26 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Live-fire Exercises and New Tensions on the Korean Peninsula

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Live-fire Exercises and New Tensions on the Korean Peninsula             
                                                                              
      December 17, 2010 | 1743 GMT                                            
      Live-Fire Exercises and New Tensions on the Korean Peninsula            
      KIM JAE-HWAN/AFP/Getty Images                                           
      South Korean marines patrol Dec. 17 on Yeonpyeong Island                
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      North Korea is demanding that South Korea cancel a planned day of       
      live-fire exercises on Yeonpyeong Island between Dec. 18-21 and has     
      threatened to launch another strike against the south. Russia has       
      summoned its U.S. and South Korean ambassadors to request a             
      cancellation of the drills. A response from North Korea could lead to   
      an escalation that might be hard to stop. However, there are signs      
      that North Korea will not strike, particularly since Pyongyang relies   
      on surprise in its attacks.                                             
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      The South Korean military is planning to conduct one day of live-fire   
      exercises on Yeonpyeong Island between Dec. 18-21, with                 
      representatives of the U.N. Command in attendance. This is the island   
      that North Korea barraged on Nov. 23, killing four South Koreans and    
      leading to a high point in inter-Korean tensions. There is a military   
      installation on the island that is regularly used for live-fire         
      exercises, which are not at all abnormal, but the timing and            
      circumstances are highly significant.                                   
                                                                              
      Pyongyang has demanded that South Korea cancel the exercises, and       
      official North Korean news agency KCNA warned that if Seoul proceeds,   
      the north will strike again with greater strength and scope, resulting  
      in a *more serious situation* than the previous incident. The Russian   
      Ministry of Foreign Affairs has summoned U.S. Ambassador John Beyrle    
      and South Korean Ambassador Lee Yoon Ho to meet with Deputy Foreign     
      Minister Alexei Borodavkin, asking explicitly for the drill to be       
      called off, and a Russian official spoke with North Korean ambassador   
      Kim Yong Jae to urge his country to show maximum restraint.             
                                                                              
      China has repeatedly blamed U.S.-South Korean exercises for             
      heightening risks of conflict, and China*s top foreign policy expert,   
      State Councilor Dai Bingguo, repeated a similar warning to U.S. Deputy  
      Secretary of State James Steinberg on Dec. 17. Even the U.S. Vice       
      Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. James Cartwright, has said  
      that although the drills are being handled in a routine and             
      transparent way, there is a risk that a negative reaction by North      
      Korea could lead the states to *lose control of the escalation.*        
      Cartwright did not imply that the South Koreans should stop the drill,  
      however.                                                                
                                                                              
      Certainly, North Korea has the option of firing on South Korea, as it   
      has in the past. North Korea blames the Nov. 23 barrage on South        
      Korean exercises being conducted at the time, a stance China and        
      Russia have recognized. The potential for escalation is higher than     
      normal, given South Korean pledges to retaliate, probably through air   
      power, and a weakening of the restraint that kept the south from        
      retaliating meaningfully in the recent past. It is hard to see where    
      the two states would draw the line to limit their responses and         
      counter-responses in the event that the north strikes.                  
                                                                              
      However, there are also indications that the north will not attack.     
      First, Pyongyang is aware of the south*s threat to strike back, which   
      is clearly intended to have a deterrent effect, though it is not clear  
      whether it will work. It is hard to say because both sides are expert   
      in crisis management in both escalation and de-escalation. For          
      instance, after the Nov. 23 shelling the North Koreans withdrew         
      artillery rocket batteries from the region that had been moved there    
      specifically for the Nov. 23 shelling, though they could move them      
      back. Second, the North Koreans tend to act by surprise, as with the    
      ChonAn incident and the Yeonpyeong attack. The South Koreans have       
      publicized the upcoming drills for weeks, tensions are already at a     
      high point and the world is watching * all of which may discourage the  
      north from doing anything beyond symbolic expressions of displeasure.   
                                                                              
      Third, diplomatic visits are well under way for what is shaping up to   
      be an eventual resumption of six-way international negotiations. New    
      Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson is in Pyongyang for talks; the top U.S.     
      envoy on the Korean nuclear situation, Sung Kim, is in Seoul;           
      Steinberg is in China; and a number of other meetings have taken place  
      between the other players in the past few weeks. The movement toward    
      international talks suggests that these parties at least think the      
      north has backed down from provocations enough for negotiations to      
      have a chance. If they were expecting another attack, it would be       
      enough to wreck this process; the United States and allies refuse to    
      hold talks until the north demonstrates some form of sincerity.         
                                                                              
      Still, North Korea*s entire method is unpredictability and is meant to  
      create the impression that it is irrational and destructive. The        
      decision to move launch systems into place and fire on South Korea is   
      one that can be made and executed in short time and known only within   
      the chain of command in North Korea. Like others, sometimes all         
      STRATFOR can do is watch and wait.                                      
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
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      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 19, 2010 8:32:29 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Mexico Adopts a New Security Strategy in Juarez

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Mexico Adopts a New Security Strategy in Juarez                          
                                                                              
      December 17, 2010 | 1921 GMT                                            
      Mexico Adopts a New Security Strategy in Juarez                         
      JESUS ALCAZAR/AFP/Getty Images                                          
      Mexican Federal Police in Ciudad Juarez on Dec. 8                       
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      Mexico*s Federal Police have secured the neighborhood of Americas in    
      Ciudad Juarez using a strategy they plan to expand throughout the       
      violence-plagued city. Lasting effects on the overall security          
      situation in Juarez will take time, assuming they emerge at all. Even   
      so, the strategy has shown that it is possible to create an             
      environment where normal life can resume. The resources required to     
      expand this type of security to the entire city of Juarez, however,     
      will be considerable.                                                   
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      In the past few weeks the Federal Police have managed to create a       
      secure zone in the Americas neighborhood of Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua    
      state, just south of the Cordova International Bridge (or Bridge of     
      the Americas) connecting Juarez to El Paso, Texas.                      
                                                                              
      While by itself the achievement may appear insignificant, it            
      highlights part of a broader security strategy authorities plan to      
      expand throughout the Juarez metro area. A permanent effect from this   
      strategy on the security environment in Juarez will take time,          
      however, if it happens at all.                                          
                                                                              
      Since taking over the central government*s security operations in       
      Ciudad Juarez in January, the Mexican Federal Police have struggled to  
      establish any secure zones in the city. Three distinct layers of        
      conflict in the city prevented Mexican security forces from             
      controlling any territory beyond the ground they were standing on.      
      This changed with the securing of Americas, though the neighborhood     
      was by no means Juarez*s toughest area to secure.                       
                                                                              
      However, the neighborhood is one of several of Juarez*s key economic    
      corridors. Located just south of one of four international bridges, it  
      receives a high volume of traffic, especially along the main avenues,   
      De Las Americas and Lincoln. The area is home to numerous shops,        
      restaurants, hotels and office complexes, as well as a hospital.        
      Several of the small businesses that operated in the area had closed    
      recently due to lack of customers and the degrading security            
      environment. The push by the Federal Police to secure the neighborhood  
      reportedly has seen some of the businesses reopen.                      
                                                                              
      The Federal Police were able to secure the area by using overwhelming   
      force, carrying out multiple simultaneous patrols in relatively small   
      areas at different times of day. Conducting random patrols in force     
      prevents criminal and cartel elements from planning their own           
      movements in the area.                                                  
                                                                              
      Federal Police agents also have established an unknown number of        
      permanent checkpoints on the main thoroughfares in the neighborhood     
      and several rotating checkpoints near rotaries, S-curves, channels and  
      other strategic chokepoints surrounding the permanent ones. The         
      rotating checkpoints disrupt alternative routes cartel members or       
      common criminals might take to avoid the permanent ones.                
                                                                              
      Checkpoints at strategic chokepoints subject all vehicles traveling a   
      given route to inspection, and any attempt to avoid the checkpoint      
      will be immediately noticed by agents. They also prevent criminal       
      elements from using the same chokepoints for their own attacks or for   
      surveillance, forcing them onto less strategic ground.                  
                                                                              
      Each checkpoint is manned by at least 12 federal agents armed with at   
      least a carbine rifle and a handgun with at least four marked Ford      
      F-150 trucks. The first two trucks are positioned to channel traffic    
      through a designated traffic lane, where each vehicle is either waved   
      through or signaled to pull over for further inspection. The other two  
      trucks are positioned behind the first two at a 45-degree angle with    
      an M249 light machinegun on each hood to provide cover fire should a    
      conflict erupt and so the agents operating the M249 can take cover      
      behind the truck*s engine block. Vehicles flagged for further           
      inspection are directed to an inspection area behind the last two       
      trucks, where the driver and/or passengers are questioned further, and  
      if necessary, the vehicle is inspected.                                 
                                                                              
      The strategy*s goal is to build upon these security accomplishments by  
      gradually expanding outward from already-secure areas in concentric     
      rings. The strategy will likely experience varying degrees of success.  
      Different neighborhoods will offer differing levels of resistance to    
      the gradual push by the Federal Police. Lasting effects on the overall  
      security situation in Juarez will take time, assuming they emerge at    
      all. Even so, the strategy has shown that it is possible to create an   
      environment (no matter how small) where business and life in general    
      can operate unimpeded by the violence that has plagued the region for   
      the past three years. But the resources required to expand this type    
      of security to the entire city of Juarez will be considerable.          
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 19, 2010 7:22:28 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Post-Election Clashes in Belarus

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Post-Election Clashes in Belarus                                         
                                                                              
      December 20, 2010 | 0055 GMT                                            
      Post-Election Clashes in Belarus                                        
      VIKTOR DRACHEV/AFP/Getty Images                                         
      Protesters clash with riot police during an opposition rally in Minsk   
      on Dec. 20                                                              
                                                                              
      Violent clashes between protesters and state police erupted in Minsk    
      following the announcement that long-time Belarusian President          
      Aleksandr Lukashenko had won the Dec. 19 presidential election with an  
      estimated 72.2 percent of the vote. Protests following elections in     
      Belarus are nothing new * around 10,000 took to the streets following   
      the 2006 election * and state security forces and police appear to      
      have been well-prepared for the conflict; some reports said hundreds    
      of security agents posed as protesters before the crackdown, and        
      police waited in buildings around the streets leading to the main       
      squares in order to sweep into the protesters.                          
                                                                              
      However, these protests are reported to have involved 25,000-40,000     
      people in the streets * a far higher number than of those in 2006.      
      While the numbers are currently highly disputed in the media (it is     
      difficult to distinguish between those rallying after the election and  
      those actually protesting the outcome), a significantly larger turnout  
      raises the question of whether the country*s opposition had been aided  
      in any way by outside forces.                                           
                                                                              
      In the past, it has been difficult for the opposition to stage such     
      organized protests of the size seen following the Dec. 19 election,     
      though the opposition had been preparing for Lukashenko*s re-election   
      for months (his victory is widely believed to have been rigged, as his  
      popularity is estimated to be below 45 percent). There is no shortage   
      of outside forces that would have an interest in aiding the             
      opposition*s demonstration against Lukashenko. Minsk has had a series   
      of disputes recently with Moscow, a power that has shown the ability    
      to organize unrest in its former Soviet states in the past . But        
      Lukashenko has a hostile relationship with the West as well, and there  
      are a number of pro-Western powers (particularly Poland) that would     
      have an interest in helping the opposition, even if the only real       
      result of the protests was a public demonstration of the heavy-handed   
      and violent reaction of Lukashenko*s government. Both sides have tried  
      in the past to undermine Lukashenko*s legitimacy, though it is unclear  
      at this time if they (or any other outside force) aided in the mass     
      uprising.                                                               
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 20, 2010 6:34:37 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Intelligence Guidance: Week of Dec. 19, 2010

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Intelligence Guidance: Week of Dec. 19, 2010                             
                                                                              
      December 20, 2010 | 1224 GMT                                            
      Intelligence Guidance: Week of Dec. 19, 2010                            
      YASSER AL-ZAYYAT/AFP/Getty Images                                       
      Former Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki at a press           
      conference Dec. 1                                                       
                                                                              
      Editor*s Note: The following is an internal STRATFOR document produced  
      to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a  
      forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and       
      evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.           
                                                                              
      New Guidance                                                            
                                                                              
      1. Iran: We need to bring Tehran and the U.S.-Iranian dynamic back to   
      the forefront of our focus. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad       
      fired Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki the week of Dec. 12 while he  
      was out of the country. Mottaki, with what may be some support from     
      Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, does not appear to be accepting his    
      ousting quietly. This may be another indication that Ahmadinejad is     
      consolidating his power in Tehran, but we need to be watching this      
      closely and redoubling our efforts to understand the power dynamics in  
      the Iranian capital.                                                    
                                                                              
      As we conclude our annual forecast for 2011, the status of the          
      political dynamic in Tehran and the U.S.-Iranian relationship are       
      important issues. Our existing guidance on examining whether progress   
      on Iran*s nuclear negotiations and the formation of a governing         
      coalition in Baghdad signifies some progress between the United States  
      and Iran * and whether Iran is feeling much pressure to negotiate at    
      all * remains central to this forecast.                                 
                                                                              
      2. Pakistan, Afghanistan: The U.S.-led International Security           
      Assistance Force has made some progress militarily in Afghanistan, but  
      the Taliban have now retaliated in Kabul. The war will not turn on      
      intermittent militant attacks, even in the capital. We need to be       
      examining how the Taliban view the American-led                         
      counterinsurgency-focused strategy and how they may be consider         
      reacting to it. Inextricable from all this is Pakistan, where we need   
      to be looking at how the United States views the Afghan-Pakistani       
      relationship and what it will seek to get out of it in the year ahead.  
                                                                              
      3. Russia: Moscow has made some productive gestures in terms of         
      allowing the transit of U.S. and allied supplies for the war effort in  
      Afghanistan. But it is also warily monitoring both militant activity    
      and increased in violence and instability in Central Asia. We need to   
      examine the status and trajectory of U.S.-Russian relations, while      
      continuing to monitor the evolution of militant activity in Tajikistan  
      and the wider region.                                                   
                                                                              
      4. South Korea, North Korea: South Korea is insisting on a live-fire    
      exercise on Yeonpyeong Island in the next two days (where there is      
      admittedly a military base, making this a routine matter, though with   
      recent tensions and North Korean attacks, both sides are fixated on     
      it). With the U.N. Security Council discussing the issue, we need to    
      keep one eye on the Korean Peninsula.                                   
                                                                              
      Existing Guidance                                                       
                                                                              
      1. Iraq: A governing coalition is taking form in Baghdad, albeit        
      slowly. We need to lean forward on this, looking at the final           
      breakdown of power and understanding what this will mean for Iraq, the  
      United States and the region. In just over one year, all U.S. forces    
      are slated to be withdrawn from the country, and with them an enormous  
      amount of American influence. Will this go through? With the governing  
      coalition issue settled, what are the key points of contention between  
      Washington and Tehran?                                                  
                                                                              
      2. Japan: A new guiding document for the Japan Self-Defense Forces is   
      expected this week that will reorient the country*s military strategy   
      to specifically focus more on countering China. We need to examine      
      both the military specifics here as well as regional reactions to this  
      overt shift * particularly in Beijing and Pyongyang, as well as Seoul.  
                                                                              
      3. Brazil: Brazilian security forces have seized Rio de Janeiro*s two   
      most violent and drug-ridden favelas, or shantytowns. We need to watch  
      this closely as the campaign progresses. Can Brasilia translate its     
      initial offensive into lasting success? Groups such as the First        
      Capital Command (PCC) and Amigos Dos Amigos are very powerful * and     
      brazen * and will not go down without a fight. Not only are key         
      individuals not being arrested, but the favelas are a symptom of deep,  
      intractable problems with crime, corruption, narcotics and poverty.     
      How are these underlying issues being addressed? We need to be wary of  
      Brazil*s embarking on an endeavor it cannot see through (Mexico*s drug  
      war comes to mind), and thus run the risk of ultimately making the      
      problem worse, rather than better.                                      
                                                                              
      Outgoing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva*s recognition of           
      Palestinian statehood raises a number of questions. Brazil has been     
      dabbling more assertively in international affairs, and da Silva is in  
      the twilight of his presidency. But, we need to take a closer look at   
      Brazil*s rationale * why this, and why now? Will the backlash from the  
      United States and Israel be rhetorical or significant?                  
                                                                              
      4. United States: U.S. State Department diplomatic cables continue to   
      trickle out of WikiLeaks. How are countries and their populations       
      reacting to the revelations made in the cables? What will be the        
      functional consequences for the practice of American diplomacy? Are     
      there any major rifts emerging? We need to keep track of the public     
      reaction and stay aware of any constraints domestic politics may place  
      on the countries in question. Though few radically new or unexpected    
      revelations have been unearthed, the release offers remarkably broad    
      insight into the world of American foreign policy as it takes place     
      behind closed doors. How do the leaks either confirm or call into       
      question standing STRATFOR assessments?                                 
                                                                              
      Related Special Topic Page                                              
        * Weekly Intelligence That Drives Our Analysis                        
                                                                              
      EURASIA                                                                 
                                                                              
        * Dec. 20: Bavarian Prime Minister Horst Seehofer will conclude       
          meetings with Czech Prime Minister Petr Necas in Prague to discuss  
          cooperation.                                                        
        * Dec. 20: Romania*s parliament will debate a no-confidence motion    
          regarding a salary law for which a confidence vote was called on    
          Dec. 14.                                                            
        * Dec. 20: Slovenia will hold a parliamentary vote on a pension       
          reform bill that would raise the retirement age.                    
        * Dec. 20: The International Monetary Fund will hold a meeting of     
          its directors to discuss Ukrainian compliance with guidelines and   
          future credit extensions to the country.                            
        * Dec. 20-22: The Greek parliament will continue debating the 2011    
          budget, with a final decision to be made Dec. 22.                   
        * Dec. 20-22: Malaysian Foreign Affairs Minister Anifah Aman will     
          continue his tour to Italy, Switzerland, Austria and Slovakia.      
        * Dec. 20-22: Latvian President Valdis Zatlers will continue a visit  
          to Russia to meet with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev. He will   
          be accompanied by a delegation of more than 100 businessmen, who    
          will be looking to increase the two countries* economic ties.       
        * Dec. 20-27: The Bulgarian government will continue holding a        
          public auction of stakes in 31 companies in a major privatization   
          bid.                                                                
        * Dec. 21-23: A final round of talks will be held for the creation    
          of a free trade zone within the Commonwealth of Independent         
          States.                                                             
        * Dec. 22: Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Armenian Prime   
          Minister Tigran Sarkisian will hold a meeting in Russia regarding   
          trade and economic ties.                                            
        * Dec. 23: A Polish court will decide whether to extradite Chechen    
          separatist leader Akhmed Zakayev to Russia.                         
        * Dec. 26: London Underground drivers have scheduled a strike for     
          this date.                                                          
                                                                              
      MIDDLE EAST/SOUTH ASIA                                                  
                                                                              
        * Dec. 20-23: Indian army chief Gen. V.K. Singh will visit Nepal.     
        * Dec. 20-23: Iran will hold an international trading and investing   
          conference on the island of Kish.                                   
        * Dec. 21: The Arab League will hold a joint meeting for the          
          councils of Arab justice and interior ministers in Cairo to         
          discuss ways to enhance cooperation between the two councils and    
          sign five joint agreements on combating money laundering,           
          terrorism, corruption, organized crime and information technology   
          crimes.                                                             
        * Dec. 21: Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his        
          Syrian counterpart, Mohammad Naji al-Otari, will co-chair the       
          second prime ministerial-level meeting of an intergovernmental      
          strategic council in Ankara.                                        
        * Dec. 21-22: Russian President Dmitri Medvedev will pay an official  
          visit to India.                                                     
        * Dec. 22: Iranian Chief of Staff and special envoy to the Middle     
          East Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei will visit Yemen to deliver a letter   
          from Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on bilateral relations,  
          joint cooperation and issues of common concern in the region.       
        * Dec. 23: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his new acting   
          foreign minister, Ali Akbar Salehi, will attend the Economic        
          Cooperation Organization meeting in Turkey.                         
        * Dec. 24: Turkish President Abdullah Gul will host a trilateral      
          meeting with Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Pakistani President  
          Asif Ali Zardari.                                                   
                                                                              
      EAST ASIA                                                               
                                                                              
        * Dec. 20: The governor of the U.S. state of New Mexico, Bill         
          Richardson, will conclude a visit to North Korea as a *private      
          citizen* to ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula.                  
        * Dec. 20: A reserve requirement increase set by the People*s Bank    
          of China will take effect.                                          
        * Dec. 20: A delegation from South Korea*s military will go to        
          Taiwan-administered Kinmen Island.                                  
        * Dec. 20-21: A delegation of four political parties from Uzbekistan  
          will continue visiting Beijing. The Uzbek delegation is headed by   
          Ulugbek Vafaev of the People*s Democratic Party of Uzbekistan.      
        * Dec. 20-21: The Communist Party of Vietnam Central Committee will   
          continue to meet.                                                   
        * Dec. 20-21: South Korea could hold one day of live fire artillery   
          drills on Yeonpyeong Island, which North Korea shelled Nov. 23.     
          The date will depend on the weather.                                
        * Dec. 20-21: Bangladeshi opposition leader and former Prime          
          Minister Khaleda Zia will continue meeting with Communist Party of  
          China and government officials in China to talk about improving     
          relations between the two parties, issues of mutual interest and    
          security in South Asia.                                             
        * Dec. 20-21: People*s Consultative Assembly of Indonesia Chairman    
          Taufik Kiemas, will continue meeting with Nguyen Phu Trong,         
          chairman of the Vietnamese National Assembly, in Vietnam to         
          discuss bilateral ties.                                             
        * Dec. 20-22: The Chinese Association for Relations Across the        
          Taiwan Straits and the Taiwanese Straits Exchange Foundation will   
          meet in Taipei for the sixth round of cross-strait talks. An        
          agreement on health and medical cooperation is expected to be       
          signed. Talks will also focus on investment protection agreements.  
        * Dec. 20-Jan. 3: A temporary cease-fire between the Philippine       
          government and the Communist Party of the Philippines and its       
          armed wing, the New People*s Army, will continue.                   
        * Dec. 21: A meeting of Thailand*s People*s Alliance for Democracy,   
          or Yellow Shirts, will be held in Phuket City, Thailand, to bring   
          attention to what the party believes are territorial concessions    
          made by the Thai government to Cambodia.                            
        * Dec. 24: The Dung Quat Oil Refinery will be officially opened by    
          the Vietnam Oil and Gas Group. The refinery will have a capacity    
          of 140,000 barrels per day.                                         
        * Dec. 24: Japanese Deputy Foreign Minister Koro Bessho will head a   
          delegation to China to hold high-level security talks.              
                                                                              
      AMERICAS                                                                
                                                                              
        * Dec. 20-21: U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees Antonio Guterres    
          will continue a visit to Ecuador.                                   
        * Dec. 21: Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner is      
          scheduled to meet with members of the ruling party, Partido         
          Justicialista, in Buenos Aires.                                     
                                                                              
      AFRICA                                                                  
                                                                              
        * Dec. 20: A delegation of businessmen will accompany Turkish State   
          Minister for Foreign Trade Zafer Caglayan to Ethiopia at the end    
          of a nine-country tour.                                             
        * Dec. 20: The trial of two men accused of the attack on the          
          Togolese football team in the Angolan exclave of Cabinda during     
          the Africa Cup of Nations will resume.                              
        * Dec. 20: Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Libyan leader         
          Moammar Gadhafi will attend a summit in the Sudanese capital of     
          Khartoum, hosted by Sudanese President Omar al Bashir and Southern  
          Sudanese President Salva Kiir, to discuss arrangements for after    
          the Jan. 9, 2011, independence referendum.                          
        * Dec. 20-26: U.S. diplomat Robert Loftis will visit the Sudanese     
          capital of Khartoum and the Southern Sudanese capital of Juba to    
          follow the progress of the implementation of the Comprehensive      
          Peace Agreement.                                                    
        * Dec. 21: The trial of former Movement for the Emancipation of the   
          Niger Delta militant Charles Okah and three other defendants        
          allegedly involved in the Oct. 1 attacks in the Nigerian capital    
          of Abuja will resume.                                               
        * Dec. 22: Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan will visit Senegal.   
        * Dec. 23: Nigeria*s ruling People*s Democratic Party will screen     
          presidential aspirants ahead of primaries scheduled for January     
          2011.                                                               
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
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      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 20, 2010 10:41:03 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Mexican Drug Wars: Bloodiest Year to Date

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Mexican Drug Wars: Bloodiest Year to Date                                
                                                                              
      December 20, 2010 | 1310 GMT                                            
      Mexican Drug Wars: Bloodiest Year to Date                               
      STRATFOR                                                                
      PDF Version                                                             
        * Click here to download a PDF of this report                         
      Related Link                                                            
        * Cartel Report 2009                                                  
      Related Special Topic Page                                              
        * Tracking Mexico*s Drug Cartels                                      
                                                                              
      Editor*s Note: In this annual report on Mexico*s drug cartels, we       
      assess the most significant developments of 2010 and provide updated    
      profiles of the country*s powerful drug-trafficking organizations as    
      well as a forecast for 2011. The report is a product of the coverage    
      we maintain on a weekly basis through our Mexico Security Memo and      
      other analyses we produce throughout the year.                          
                                                                              
         Summary                                                              
                                                                              
      In 2010, Mexico*s cartel wars have produced unprecedented levels of     
      violence throughout the country. No longer concentrated in just a few   
      states, the violence has spread all across the northern tier of border  
      states and all along both the east and west coasts of Mexico. This      
      year*s drug-related homicides have passed the 11,000 mark, a 60 to 70   
      percent increase from 2009.                                             
                                                                              
      The high levels of violence in 2010 have been caused not only by        
      long-term struggles, such as the fight between the Sinaloa Federation   
      and the Vicente Carrillo Fuentes Organization (the VCF, or Juarez       
      cartel) for control of the Juarez smuggling corridor, but also by new   
      conflicts among various players in an increasingly fluid cartel         
      landscape. For example, simmering tensions between Los Zetas and their  
      former partners in the Gulf cartel finally boiled over and quickly      
      escalated into a bloody turf war in the Tamaulipas border region. The   
      conflict spread to states like Nuevo Leon, Hidalgo and Tabasco and      
      even gave birth to an alliance among the Sinaloa Federation, the Gulf   
      cartel and La Familia Michoacana (LFM).                                 
                                                                              
      Additionally, the death of Arturo Beltran Leyva in a December 2009      
      Mexican marine raid led to a vicious battle between factions of the     
      Beltran Leyva Organization (BLO) for control of the organization,       
      pitting Arturo*s brother, Hector Beltran Leyva, against Arturo*s        
      right-hand man, Edgar *La Barbie* Valdez Villarreal. New conflicts      
      this year have clearly added to the carnage from previous years*        
      battles, such as those pitting the Sinaloa Federation against the       
      Juarez cartel and LFM against the BLO.                                  
                                                                              
      The administration of Mexican President Felipe Calderon has also made   
      strides against these cartels, dismantling several cartel networks and  
      taking down their leaders over the course of 2010, most notably         
      Sinaloa No. 3 Ignacio *El Nacho* Coronel Villarreal and Valdez.         
      However, while such operations have succeeded in capturing or killing   
      several very dangerous people and disrupting their organizations, such  
      disruptions have also served to further upset the balance of power      
      among Mexico*s criminal organizations and increase the volatility of    
      the Mexican security environment. In effect, the imbalance has created  
      a sort of vicious feeding frenzy among the various organizations as     
      they seek to preserve their own turf and seize territory from rival     
      organizations.                                                          
                                                                              
      Mexican Drug Wars: Bloodiest Year to Date                               
      (click here to enlarge image)                                           
                                                                              
      Calderon has also taken steps to shift the focus from the               
      controversial strategy of using the Mexican military as the primary     
      weapon in the conflict against the cartels to using the newly reformed  
      Federal Police. While the military still remains the most reliable      
      security tool available to the Mexican government, the Federal Police   
      have been given more responsibility in Juarez and northeastern Mexico,  
      the nation*s most contentious hot spots. Calderon has also planted the  
      seeds for reforming the states* security organizations with a unified   
      command in hopes of professionalizing each state*s security force to    
      the point where the states do not have to rely on the federal           
      government to combat organized crime. Additionally, the Mexican         
      Congress has taken steps to curb the president*s ability to deploy the  
      military domestically by proposing a National Security Act that would   
      require a state governor or legislature to first request the            
      deployment of the military rather than permitting the federal           
      government to act unilaterally. There is simply not enough federal      
      military manpower to respond to all requests and deploy to all trouble  
      spots, a position in which the federal government is increasingly       
      finding itself.                                                         
                                                                              
       Cartel Membership and Organization                                     
                                                                              
         Los Zetas                                                            
                                                                              
      Los Zetas are a relatively new power on the drug-trafficking scene,     
      having only recently become an independent organization. Although Los   
      Zetas were characterized as an aggressive and ascendant organization    
      in our 2009 cartel report, the group has experienced some major         
      setbacks in 2010. Los Zetas have had a roller-coaster year, beginning   
      with the severing of relations with their former parent organization,   
      the Gulf cartel, in January 2010. Though Los Zetas have been operating  
      more or less independent of the Gulf cartel for almost three years      
      now, things finally came to a head with the Jan. 18 death of one of     
      Los Zetas* top lieutenants, Sergio *El Concord 3* Mendoza Pena, at the  
      hands of Gulf men under cartel leader Eduardo *El Coss* Costillo        
      Sanchez. Mendoza was reported to be the right-hand man of Los Zetas     
      No. 2 Miguel *Z-40* Trevino Morales, and in response to his             
      associate*s death, Trevino demanded that Costillo hand over the men     
      responsible for Mendoza*s death. When Costillo refused, Trevino         
      ordered the kidnapping of 16 known Gulf cartel members. Tit-for-tat     
      operations escalated into all-out war between the two groups            
      throughout the spring. It is no secret that Los Zetas are               
      operationally superior to their former parent organization, which is    
      why, once the fighting escalated, the Gulf cartel reached out to the    
      Sinaloa Federation and LFM, two of their former rivals, for assistance  
      in fighting Los Zetas. This new alliance was called the New             
      Federation.                                                             
                                                                              
      Mexican Drug Wars: Bloodiest Year to Date                               
      (click here to enlarge image)                                           
                                                                              
      Since the formation of the New Federation, Los Zetas have been on the   
      defensive, fighting both Gulf cartel advances on traditional Los Zetas  
      territory and the direct targeting of the group*s regional leadership   
      by Mexican security forces. Los Zetas were pushed out of their          
      traditional stronghold of Reynosa, Tamaulipas state, and were forced    
      to retreat to other strongholds such as Nuevo Laredo and Monterrey,     
      Nuevo Leon state (even so, both Monterrey and Nuevo Laredo have been    
      contested at various times during 2010). Despite losing key areas of    
      their home territory, Los Zetas have continued to expand their          
      operations throughout Mexico by working with other criminal             
      organizations, such as the Cartel Pacifico Sur (or CPS, which is        
      Hector Beltran Leyva*s faction of the BLO), and are penetrating deeper  
      into Central America, South America and Europe.                         
                                                                              
      Los Zetas* top-tier leadership has remained unchanged, with Heriberto   
      *El Lazca* Lazcano Lazcano atop the organization followed by his No.    
      2, Trevino, but the regional leadership of the group below Lazcano and  
      Trevino has suffered tremendous setbacks in a number of locations,      
      none more pronounced than in the Monterrey metropolitan area. The June  
      9 apprehension of Hector *El Tori* Raul Luna Luna, Los Zetas*           
      Monterrey regional leader, in a Mexican military operation set in       
      motion a string of operations over the next three months that netted    
      at least five senior regional leaders of Los Zetas in Monterrey who     
      were designated as replacements for Luna. Additionally, regional Los    
      Zetas leaders have been apprehended in Hidalgo and Veracruz states,     
      and at least three leaders have been captured in Tabasco state.         
                                                                              
      However, events in the second half of 2010 have placed Los Zetas in a   
      position to possibly regain some of the territory lost to the Gulf      
      cartel and the New Federation earlier in the year. This opportunity     
      has been presented by the apparent weakening of the New Federation      
      alliance and the death of a key Gulf cartel leader. In response, Los    
      Zetas appear to be preparing for an assault to regain lost territory,   
      though a recent deployment of federal security forces to the region     
      may delay or alter their plans for an anticipated offensive.            
                                                                              
         Gulf Cartel                                                          
                                                                              
      In the early half of the decade, the Gulf cartel was among the most     
      powerful criminal organizations in Mexico and served as an effective    
      counterbalance in the east to the Sinaloa Federation, which dominated   
      the western coast of Mexico. However, after the arrest of charismatic   
      Gulf leader Osiel Cardenas Guillen in 2003, the group found itself on   
      the decline while its enforcement wing, Los Zetas, gradually became     
      the dominant player in their relationship. During times of intense      
      conflict, the warriors in a criminal organization tend to rise above    
      the businessmen, and this dynamic was seen in Los Zetas* ascension.     
      Fissures began to emerge between Los Zetas and their Gulf cartel        
      masters in late 2008, when Los Zetas began contracting their            
      enforcement and tactical services out to other criminal organizations   
      such as the BLO and the VCF. These fractures were widened in 2009 when  
      Gulf cartel leaders Costillo and Eziquiel Antonio *Tony Tormenta*       
      Cardenas Guillen (Osiel*s brother) refused offers to be integrated      
      into the Los Zetas organization by its leader, Lazcano. The situation   
      finally boiled over into all-out war between the Gulf cartel and Los    
      Zetas in February 2010, after Costillo*s men killed the Los Zetas       
      lieutenant in January during a heated argument.                         
                                                                              
      The Gulf cartel had relied on Los Zetas for its enforcement operations  
      for the past several years and knew exactly what Los Zetas were         
      capable of. Because of this, the Gulf cartel knew, with its current     
      capabilities, that it could not take on Los Zetas alone. So the cartel  
      reached out to its main rivals in Mexico: the Sinaloa Federation and    
      LFM. These organizations held an intense hatred for Los Zetas because   
      of their long-running battles with the group, a hatred that amounted,   
      in many ways, to a blood feud. With the added resources of the          
      so-called New Federation, the Gulf cartel was able to take the fight    
      to Los Zetas and actually force its former partners out of one of       
      their traditional strongholds in Reynosa and to take its offensive to   
      other regions traditionally held by Los Zetas, namely the city of       
      Monterrey and the states of Nuevo Leon, Hidalgo and Veracruz.           
                                                                              
      This resulted in Los Zetas being pushed back on their heels throughout  
      the country, and by June it looked as if the group*s days might be      
      numbered. However, events transpired outside of the New Federation-Los  
      Zetas conflict in July that weakened the alliance and forced the other  
      members to direct attention and resources to other parts of the         
      country, thus giving Los Zetas room to regroup. The lack of commitment  
      from the Sinaloa Federation and LFM left the Gulf cartel exposed to a   
      certain degree, exposure that was soon exacerbated when Mexican         
      security forces began dismantling the cells associated with Gulf        
      leader Antonio Cardenas Guillen in the Matamoros region beginning in    
      August. This operation culminated when Mexican marines launched an      
      assault to capture the Gulf leader on Nov. 5 that resulted in a         
      three-hour fire fight that killed Tony Tormenta and several of his top  
      lieutenants. While Antonio Cardenas Guillen was not the driving force   
      behind Gulf cartel operations, he did lead several of the               
      organization*s enforcement cells, and his absence from the Tamaulipas   
      border area prompted both Los Zetas and Mexican federal security        
      forces to make preparations to move into the region.                    
                                                                              
         Sinaloa Federation                                                   
                                                                              
      The Sinaloa Federation is, as its name implies, a true cartel           
      comprised of several different drug-trafficking organizations that all  
      report to the head of the federation, Joaquin *El Chapo* Guzman Loera,  
      who is the world*s second-most wanted man behind Osama bin Laden.       
      Guzman is flanked in leadership by Ismael *El Mayo* Zambada Garcia and  
      Juan *El Azul* Esparragoza Moreno, each having his own independent      
      trafficking network. The Sinaloa Federation has been an active          
      participant on nearly every front of the cartel wars in 2010,           
      including, with its involvement in the New Federation, the conflict in  
      northeastern Mexico. But perhaps its most notable (and to date          
      under-recognized) success has been in gaining a clear tactical          
      advantage in the battle for control of the Ciudad Juarez smuggling      
      corridor. An FBI intelligence memo revealed that a large majority of    
      the narcotics seized in the El Paso sector, directly across the border  
      from Juarez, belonged to the Sinaloa Federation. The FBI report also    
      noted that the Sinaloa Federation had gained control of key territory   
      in the region, giving the group clear business and tactical advantages  
      over the Juarez cartel. Still, the Sinaloa Federation remains focused   
      on the Juarez region as Sinaloa seeks to consolidate its position,      
      defend itself from Juarez cartel counterattacks and exert total         
      control over the smuggling corridor. This effort has demanded the vast  
      majority of the organization*s enforcement resources.                   
                                                                              
      Mexican Drug Wars: Bloodiest Year to Date                               
      (click here to enlarge image)                                           
                                                                              
      The Calderon administration scored one of its greatest victories        
      against the drug cartels this year when members of the Mexican          
      military shot and killed Sinaloa Federation No. 3 Ignacio *El Nacho*    
      Coronel Villarreal on July 29 in his home in Guadalajara, Jalisco       
      state. Coronel oversaw the Sinaloa Federation*s operations along much   
      of the Central Pacific coast as well as the organization*s              
      methamphetamine production and trafficking, earning Coronel the         
      nickname *King of Ice* (the crystallized form of methamphetamine is     
      commonly referred to as *ice*). Intelligence gathered from the house    
      where Coronel was killed, along with other investigative work by        
      Mexican military intelligence, quickly led to the capture of nearly     
      all the leadership cadre of Coronel*s network in the Jalisco, Colima,   
      Nayarit and Michoacan areas.                                            
                                                                              
      The death of Coronel and the dismantlement of his network, along with   
      a continued focus on the conflict in Juarez, have forced the Sinaloa    
      Federation to pull back from other commitments, such as its operations  
      against Los Zetas as part of the New Federation. While it appears the   
      Sinaloa Federation has once again pulled its enforcers out of           
      northeastern Mexico * at least for now * the organization has made      
      inroads on the business operations-side in other regions and on other   
      continents. The Sinaloa Federation has apparently made progress toward  
      extending its control over the lucrative Tijuana, Baja California       
      region, and has established at least a temporary agreement with what    
      is left of the Arellano Felix Organization (AFO) to move loads of       
      narcotics through the area. Additionally, STRATFOR sources continue to  
      report a sustained effort by the Sinaloa Federation to expand its       
      logistical network farther into Europe and its influence deeper into    
      Central America and South America.                                      
                                                                              
      Even though the Sinaloa Federation has experienced a few setbacks,      
      such as the defection of the BLO and the loss of Coronel and his        
      network, the group has control of, or access to, smuggling corridors    
      all along Mexico*s northern border from Tijuana to Juarez. This means   
      that Sinaloa appears to be the group that has fared the best over the   
      past few increasingly violent years. This applies even more             
      specifically to Guzman and his faction of the federation. Indeed,       
      Guzman has benefited greatly from some events. In addition to the fall  
      of his external foes, such as the AFO, Gulf and Juarez cartels, he has  
      also seen the downfall of strong Sinaloa Federation personalities who   
      could have risen up to contest his leadership, men like Alfredo         
      Beltran Leyva and Coronel. Sinaloa members who attract a lot of         
      adverse publicity for the federation, such as Enrique *El Cumbias*      
      Lopez Acosta, also seem to run into bad luck with some frequency.       
                                                                              
         La Familia Michoacana                                                
                                                                              
      After being named the most violent organized-crime group in Mexico by   
      then-Mexican Attorney General Eduardo Medina Mora in 2009, LFM has      
      been largely a background player in 2010. The group holds to a strange  
      pseudo-religious ideology unique among Mexican drug cartels, and        
      though it is still based out of Michoacan state, it has a presence      
      and, in some cases, substantial influence in the neighboring states of  
      Guerrero, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Colima and Mexico. Until the Dec. 10     
      death of LFM spiritual leader Nazario *El Mas Loco* Moreno Gonzalez,    
      the group*s leadership had been shared by Moreno and Jose de Jesus *El  
      Chango* Mendez Vargas; Servando *La Tuta* Gomez Martinez, whose media   
      profile has greatly expanded in recent months, had held the No. 3 spot  
      in the organization. Just prior to Moreno*s death, several LFM          
      regional plaza bosses were captured in the sustained Federal Police     
      operation against the group.                                            
                                                                              
      Mexican Drug Wars: Bloodiest Year to Date                               
      (click here to enlarge image)                                           
                                                                              
      LFM has remained active on two main fronts in Mexico in 2010. One is    
      the offensive against Los Zetas as part of the New Federation with      
      Sinaloa and the Gulf cartel in northeastern Mexico, and the other is    
      the fight against the CPS and their Los Zetas allies in southern        
      Michoacan and Guerrero states, particularly around the resort area of   
      Acapulco. LFM and the CPS have been locked in a heated battle for       
      supremacy in the Acapulco region for the past two years, and this       
      conflict shows no signs of stopping, especially since the CPS appears   
      to have recently launched a new offensive against LFM in southern       
      Michoacan. Additionally, after the death of Coronel in July and the     
      subsequent dismantlement of his network, LFM attempted to take over     
      the Jalisco and Colima trafficking corridors, which reportedly          
      strained relations between the Sinaloa Federation and LFM.              
                                                                              
      In mid-November, LFM reportedly proposed a truce with the Mexican       
      government. In *narcomantas* banners hung throughout Michoacan          
      (narcomantas are messages from an organized criminal group, usually on  
      a poster in a public place), the group allegedly announced that it      
      would begin the truce the first week of December. That week was         
      dominated by the arrests of several LFM operatives, including Jose      
      Antonio *El Tonon* Arcos Martinez, a high-ranking lieutenant with a     
      $250,000 bounty on his head, and Morelia plaza boss Alfredo Landa       
      Torres. It is unclear whether LFM will stick to its truce or engage in  
      retaliatory attacks as it has done in the past when high-ranking        
      members have been arrested. It is equally unclear whether LFM still     
      has the ability to conduct high-profile attacks. LFM is a relatively    
      small and new organization compared to the older and more established   
      drug-trafficking groups that operate in Mexico, and while it remains a  
      potent organization in the greater Michoacan region, it appears the     
      group is becoming increasingly isolated. Its truce offer, if            
      legitimate, may be a sign that a combination of turf battles with       
      rival cartels and government pressure is more than the organization     
      can bear. Adding the death of the group*s spiritual leader to the       
      equation means that Mendez may be facing a great challenge in merely    
      keeping the group together. We will be watching LFM closely over the    
      next several weeks for signs of collapse.                               
                                                                              
         Beltran Leyva Organization                                           
                                                                              
      Founded by the four Beltran Leyva brothers * Arturo, Alfredo, Carlos    
      and Hector * the BLO was originally part of the Sinaloa Federation.     
      After Alfredo was arrested in January 2008, the brothers accused        
      Sinaloa Federation leader Guzman of tipping off Mexican authorities to  
      Alfredo*s location, and they subsequently broke away from Sinaloa to    
      launch a bloody war against their former partners. The BLO even went    
      as far as to kill one of Guzman*s sons in a brazen assassination in     
      the parking lot of a grocery store in Culiacan, Sinaloa state, where    
      gunmen allegedly fired more than 200 rounds of ammunition and used      
      rocket-propelled grenades. The organization quickly aligned itself      
      with Los Zetas in an effort to gain military reinforcement. Their       
      combined resources and mutual hatred of Guzman and the Sinaloa          
      Federation helped the BLO and Los Zetas to become one of the most       
      formidable criminal organizations in Mexico. But their fast rise to     
      one of the top spots in 2008 was perhaps indicative of their volatile   
      existence and could help explain their rapid degradation in 2010.       
                                                                              
      Mexican Drug Wars: Bloodiest Year to Date                               
      (click here to enlarge image)                                           
                                                                              
      Indeed, the BLO has had perhaps its most tumultuous year since          
      STRATFOR began publishing its annual cartel report. On Dec. 16, 2009,   
      only a few days after our report was published last year, Mexican       
      marines stormed a luxury apartment complex in Cuernavaca, Morelos       
      state, and killed the BLO*s leader, Arturo Beltran Leyva, along with    
      several of his top bodyguards. It was very apparent in the following    
      weeks that Arturo was the glue that held the BLO together as a          
      functioning criminal organization. His death sent shockwaves            
      throughout the organization, causing a vicious blame-game for allowing  
      Arturo to be killed. His brother Carlos was arrested Dec. 30 in         
      Culiacan, leaving Hector as the only brother at large. Hector was the   
      obvious choice for succession, if the reins of the organization were    
      to stay within the founding Beltran Leyva family. However, many within  
      the BLO felt that control of the organization should be given to        
      Arturo*s right-hand man, Edgar *La Barbie* Valdez Villarreal. The BLO   
      was quickly divided into two factions: those who supported Hector to    
      lead the organization and those who supported Valdez.                   
                                                                              
         Hector Beltran Leyva Faction/Cartel Pacifico Sur                     
                                                                              
      It appears that most of the BLO operatives and networks sided with      
      Hector Beltran Leyva and his deputy and top enforcer, Sergio *El        
      Grande* Villarreal Barragan. The group renamed itself Cartel Pacifico   
      Sur (CPS), or the South Pacific Cartel, to distance itself from the     
      elements associated with Valdez that still clung to the BLO moniker.    
      The CPS remained allies with Los Zetas and continued to cultivate       
      their working relationship, largely due to the hatred between Valdez    
      and Los Zetas. The animosity between Valdez and Los Zetas dates back    
      to 2003, when the Sinaloa Federation dispatched BLO gunman to wage an   
      offensive in Nuevo Laredo against the Gulf cartel (and Los Zetas) in    
      an attempt to take control of the Nuevo Laredo smuggling corridor       
      following the arrest of Gulf cartel leader Osiel Cardenas Guillen.      
      Valdez, a U.S. citizen born in Laredo, Texas, was one of the leaders    
      of the BLO*s Los Negros enforcement unit.                               
                                                                              
      The CPS heavily engaged the Valdez faction in the states of Guerrero,   
      Morelos and Mexico while maintaining control of the traditional BLO     
      territories in parts of Sinaloa and Sonora states. As the fighting      
      with the Valdez faction escalated, the two groups exchanged executions  
      and gruesome public displays of mutilated bodies. However, Mexican      
      authorities continued their pursuit of the BLO remnants and arrested    
      Villarreal on Sept. 12, 2010, without incident inside a luxury home in  
      Puebla, Puebla state. Several weeks later, Mexican federal authorities  
      believed they were close to capturing Hector Beltran Leyva as well.     
      They launched a few operations to nab the cartel leader but came up     
      empty-handed.                                                           
                                                                              
      The CPS, with the help of Los Zetas, is currently engaged in an         
      offensive against LFM in the southern portions of Michoacan, as the     
      CPS attempts to push beyond its traditional operating territory in      
      Acapulco, Guerrero state, and farther up the west coast of Mexico       
      toward the port of Lazaro Cardenas. Additionally, the CPS and Los       
      Zetas have staked a claim to the Colima and Manzanillo regions          
      following the death of Sinaloa*s No. 3, Coronel, and after fending off  
      fairly weak advances by LFM and a lackluster attempt to maintain        
      control of the territory by the Sinaloa Federation.                     
                                                                              
         Edgar Valdez Villarreal Faction                                      
                                                                              
      The Valdez faction found itself fighting an uphill battle for control   
      of the BLO after the death of Arturo Beltran Leyva in December 2009.    
      While the Valdez faction was very capable and quite potent, it simply   
      did not have the resources to mount a successful campaign to take over  
      the BLO. Valdez was supported by his top lieutenants, Gerardo *El       
      Indio* Alvarez Vasquez and his father-in-law, Carlos Montemayor, along  
      with their cells and networks of enforcers. The Valdez faction was      
      relatively isolated and confined to the states of Guerrero, Mexico and  
      Morelos, but even in those states its presence was contested by         
      Mexican security forces and, in southern Guerrero, by the CPS and LFM   
      as well.                                                                
                                                                              
      Mexican security forces wasted no time in going after the leadership    
      of the Valdez faction. On April 21, Mexican military intelligence,      
      with the help of the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, tracked      
      Alvarez to a safe-house in Huixquilucan, Mexico state. After a          
      several-hourlong firefight, military forces were able to surround the   
      area and capture Alvarez as he attempted to flee in a small car under   
      a volley of bullets. The safe-house provided Mexican officials with a   
      wealth of information about the group and jump-started the hunt for     
      Valdez.                                                                 
                                                                              
      The arrest of Valdez on Aug. 30 is enveloped by conflicting reports.    
      The Mexican government announced that a huge Federal Police operation   
      overwhelmed the kingpin at a rural vacation home in Mexico state and    
      that Valdez surrendered without a shot being fired. However, several    
      weeks later reports began emerging that Valdez had turned himself in    
      to authorities at a local municipal police checkpoint near his          
      vacation home, simply identifying himself and telling the local police  
      that he was there to surrender to them. The second scenario made much   
      more sense when it was revealed that Valdez had been an informant for   
      the Mexican government since 2008. He had reportedly been responsible   
      for the apprehension of many of his rivals and those who worked         
      closely with him, most notably Arturo Beltran Leyva. This possibility   
      was raised by some BLO members at the time of Arturo*s death when it    
      was reported that Valdez had been in the apartment mere minutes before  
      the Mexican marines launched the raid that killed Arturo.               
                                                                              
      After the arrest of Valdez, Montemayor took the reins of the Valdez     
      faction. One of his first moves was to order the kidnapping and         
      execution of 20 tourists from Michoacan in Acapulco, which garnered     
      headlines across Mexican and international media. Montemayor believed   
      that the tourists were actually LFM operatives who had been sent to     
      the Acapulco region to seize control of the lucrative port. A short     
      while later, on Nov. 24, Montemayor himself was arrested, essentially   
      decapitating the leadership of the Valdez faction. It is unclear who,   
      if anyone, has replaced Montemayor at the helm of the organization,     
      but given the blows the Valdez faction has suffered in 2010, it is      
      likely that the remaining operatives have either gone their own way or  
      now work for some other organization.                                   
                                                                              
         Arellano Felix Organization                                          
                                                                              
      The AFO, formerly known as the Tijuana cartel, is led by Fernando *El   
      Ingeniero* Sanchez Arellano, nephew of the founding Arellano Felix      
      brothers. This organization has experienced numerous setbacks in        
      recent years, including a major split and vicious factional             
      infighting, and is only a shell of its former self. These hindrances    
      have impacted not only the group*s leadership but also its operational  
      capability as a trafficking organization. The most significant loss     
      the AFO has experienced this year has been the disappearance of Jorge   
      *El Cholo* Briceno Lopez. Reports of both his death and his arrest      
      have swirled around the media this year, but we have been unable to     
      determine what exactly has happened to Briceno, other than the          
      apparent fact that he is no longer involved in the Tijuana              
      drug-trafficking scene. After fighting a brutal internal conflict with  
      the AFO*s Eduardo *El Teo* Garcia Simental faction (which had defected  
      to the Sinaloa Federation), and bearing the brunt of a Mexican          
      military-led operation, the AFO has only a few operational cells left,  
      most of which have kept an extremely low profile in 2010. After the     
      arrest of Garcia in January and the dismantlement of his organization   
      in the Baja Peninsula, violence subsided significantly in the Tijuana   
      region * a far cry from the upward of 100 murders per week that the     
      region experienced during one period in 2008.                           
                                                                              
      Mexican Drug Wars: Bloodiest Year to Date                               
                                                                              
      The biggest threat the AFO has faced since its initial fall from power  
      in the early part of the decade has been the aggressive actions of the  
      Sinaloa Federation. For the past two years, the Garcia faction of the   
      AFO had been the Sinaloa proxy fighting for control of the Tijuana      
      smuggling corridor against the AFO faction led by Sanchez. In recent    
      months, however, there have been signs that the two long-time rivals    
      may have come to some form of a business agreement, allowing the        
      Sinaloa Federation to move large shipments of narcotics through AFO     
      territory. Generally, some sort of tax is levied upon these shipments,  
      and it is likely that the AFO is gaining some sort of monetary benefit  
      from the arrangement. Some sources are reporting that the AFO           
      continues to exist only because of the largesse of the Sinaloa          
      Federation and because the AFO is paying Sinaloa to allow the AFO to    
      operate in Tijuana. Either way, these sorts of agreements have proved   
      only temporary in the past. At the present time it is unclear if or     
      when the Sinaloa Federation will decide to resume the offensive         
      against the AFO and whether the AFO will be able to do anything about   
      it.                                                                     
                                                                              
         Vicente Carrillo Fuentes Organization/Juarez Cartel                  
                                                                              
      The VCF, also known as the Juarez cartel, continued its downward        
      spiral from 2009 into 2010. The VCF continues to lose ground to the     
      Sinaloa Federation throughout Chihuahua state, most notably in the      
      Ciudad Juarez area. The VCF*s influence has largely been confined to    
      the urban areas of the state, Juarez and Chihuahua, though it appears   
      that its influence is waning even in traditional VCF strongholds. The   
      organization is headed by its namesake, Vicente Carrillo Fuentes, and   
      has remained functional largely because of the group*s operational      
      leader, Juan *El JL* Luis Ledezma, who also heads the VCF enforcement   
      wing, La Linea. The VCF has been able to remain relevant in the         
      greater Juarez area because of the relationship it has with the local   
      street gang Los Aztecas, led by Eduardo *Tablas* Ravelo. Los Aztecas    
      serve as the primary enforcers for the VCF on the streets of Juarez.    
      However, several Federal Police operations have netted some high-level  
      operatives for Los Aztecas and La Linea, particularly after a few       
      high-profile attacks conducted by the two groups.                       
                                                                              
      Mexican Drug Wars: Bloodiest Year to Date                               
                                                                              
      With its sustained losses, the VCF has done what many other criminal    
      organizations in Mexico have done after falling on hard times * it has  
      expanded its tactics and diversified its criminal operations.           
      Extortion and kidnapping-for-ransom (KFR) operations have increased     
      dramatically in the greater Juarez area, largely because of activities  
      by Los Aztecas and La Linea. (More on the cartels* expanding tactics    
      below.) The March murders of U.S. consulate worker Leslie Enriquez and  
      her husband were ordered by La Linea lieutenants because she was        
      believed to have supplied visas to members of the Sinaloa Federation    
      while denying visas for people associated with VCF. And on July 15, La  
      Linea became the first modern-day Mexican criminal organization to      
      successfully deploy an improvised explosive device (IED). The blast     
      killed four people and wounded several more (all first-responders). It  
      appeared that the group confined its targeting only to                  
      first-responders, namely Mexican security forces, and despite its very  
      public threats, La Linea has yet to deploy the tactic against innocent  
      civilians.                                                              
                                                                              
      The fallout from both the assassination of a U.S. government employee   
      and the deployment of an IED has resulted in the loss of several        
      operatives and, in a few cases, senior leaders of La Linea and Los      
      Aztecas, in addition to increased scrutiny by Mexican security forces   
      and U.S. law enforcement on the other side of the border in El Paso,    
      Texas. These scenarios have only worked to further inhibit the VCF*s    
      ability to move narcotics and continue to remain relevant on the        
      Mexican drug-trafficking scene. It will remain the focus of intense     
      Sinaloa Federation and Mexican government operations in 2011, but it    
      can also be expected to continue its desperate fight for survival on    
      its home turf.                                                          
                                                                              
       A Fluid Landscape and Hints of Success                                 
                                                                              
      Four years after President Calderon launched an offensive against the   
      country*s major drug-trafficking organizations (DTOs) in December       
      2006, the security landscape in Mexico remains remarkably fluid. Not    
      everything has changed, however. The two main struggles in Mexico are   
      still among the cartels themselves * for lucrative turf * and between   
      the cartels and the Mexican government. Government offensives have      
      continued to weaken and fragment several of Mexico*s largest DTOs and   
      their splinter groups and are continuing to disrupt the power balance   
      throughout Mexico as DTOs try to seize control of key smuggling         
      corridors held by weakened rivals. There have also been hints of        
      success in Calderon*s countercartel strategy, with 2010 proving to be   
      one of the most productive years for the Calderon administration in     
      terms of toppling cartel leaders and dismantling their networks.        
                                                                              
      Mexican Drug Wars: Bloodiest Year to Date                               
      (click here to enlarge image)                                           
                                                                              
      To recap: In 2010 we saw tensions between the Gulf cartel and Los       
      Zetas boil over into open warfare throughout the eastern half of        
      Mexico, primarily in Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon states. The Gulf         
      cartel, knowing it could not sustain an effective campaign against Los  
      Zetas on its own, reached out to two of Los Zetas* main rivals * the    
      Sinaloa Federation and LFM * for support in fighting Los Zetas. For     
      much of the first half of 2010, this so-called New Federation           
      dominated the battlefield in northeastern Mexico, pushing Los Zetas     
      from their traditional stronghold of Reynosa and forcing the group to   
      retreat to Nuevo Laredo and Monterrey. However, alliances and           
      agreements such as the New Federation are often fleeting, especially    
      as the Mexican government continues to apply increasing pressure to     
      criminal organizations throughout the country.                          
                                                                              
      While there was some indication of strained relations between New       
      Federation partners when LFM tried to move in on Coronel*s turf, the    
      alliance fell by the wayside when other situations made it no longer    
      beneficial for Sinaloa or LFM to contribute resources to the fight in   
      northeastern Mexico. The Sinaloa Federation lost control of one of its  
      most lucrative points of entry into Mexico and Colima states after the  
      death of Coronel and the dismantlement of his network in Colima,        
      Jalisco and Nayarit. Additionally, Sinaloa*s conflict with the VCF in   
      Juarez, despite having a tactical advantage throughout much of the      
      region, has dragged on and continues to drain a significant amount of   
      attention and resources from the organization. As for LFM, the          
      organization was facing the threat of an offensive on its core          
      territory in southern Michoacan by the CPS and Los Zetas, as well as a  
      business opportunity to fill a power vacuum in the methamphetamine      
      market in the neighboring region to the north in the wake of Coronel*s  
      death in July.                                                          
                                                                              
      One way to look at all this is to consider that the group that          
      dominated the Mexican cartel scene for almost half of 2010, the New     
      Federation, was disrupted by the Mexican government in July, which      
      indirectly * and perhaps purposefully * made the cartel landscape very  
      fluid. It has been the mission of the Calderon administration to deny   
      any Mexican criminal organization an uncontested region of the country  
      in which to freely operate. Since the Mexican government has not ever   
      been able to fully control the territory outside the country*s          
      geographic core around Mexico City, disruption has been a key tactic    
      in Calderon*s war against the cartels. Several factions of many         
      different organizations have been hit tremendously hard in campaigns    
      by the Mexican military and the Federal Police. Here is a list of the   
      major cartel leaders and their networks brought down in 2010:           
                                                                              
        * Eziquiel Antonio *Tony Tormenta* Cardenas Guillen and several Gulf  
          cartel cells associated with him                                    
        * The Eduardo *El Teo* Garcia Simental faction of the AFO             
        * Sergio *El Grande* Villarreal Barragan                              
        * The Edgar *La Barbie* Valdez Villarreal faction of the BLO          
        * Ignacio *El Nacho* Coronel Villarreal and his network               
        * Eight plaza bosses for Los Zetas (four of whom were in charge of    
          operations in Monterrey)                                            
        * Two plaza bosses for LFM                                            
        * Nazario *El Mas Loco* Moreno Gonzalez of LFM                        
                                                                              
      Using disruption as a measure, 2010 has been a successful year for the  
      Calderon administration. However, despite some successful               
      countercartel operations, the country*s security situation continues    
      to degrade at a rapid rate and violence continues to rise to            
      unprecedented levels.                                                   
                                                                              
       Expanding Tactics and Escalating Violence                              
                                                                              
      At the time this report was being written, there had been 11,041        
      organized crime-related murders in Mexico in 2010, with nearly three    
      weeks left in the year. At the same time in 2009, the death toll for    
      the year had reached a new high, ranging from 6,900 to 8,000            
      (depending on the source and methodology used for tracking organized    
      crime-related murders). The degrading security environment in Mexico    
      has been exacerbated by the development of new conflicts in             
      Tamaulipas, Nuevo Leon, Morelos, Mexico, Colima and Jalisco states, as  
      well as by persisting conflicts in Chihuahua, Sinaloa, Durango,         
      Michoacan and Guerrero states. This geography of violence has changed   
      quite a bit since 2009, when the violence was concentrated mainly in    
      five states: Chihuahua, Sinaloa, Guerrero, Michoacan and Baja           
      California.                                                             
                                                                              
      Mexican Drug Wars: Bloodiest Year to Date                               
                                                                              
      One reason for the tremendous increase in violence in 2010 is the       
      conflict between the Gulf cartel and Los Zetas. This conflict spread    
      violence throughout the eastern half of the country, common territory   
      where the two groups have significant influence given their past        
      relationship. And the conflict that stemmed from the BLO split has      
      become a new source of violence in the southern states of Morelos,      
      Mexico and Guerrero. All this, combined with the ongoing conflicts      
      between the VCF and the Sinaloa Federation in Chihuahua state; LFM and  
      the CPS in Michoacan and Guerrero states; and the persistent low-level  
      fighting between the CPS and the Sinaloa Federation in Sinaloa state,   
      has produced this year*s unprecedented death toll for the country as a  
      whole.                                                                  
                                                                              
      Groups that have borne the brunt of fighting, namely Los Zetas and the  
      VCF, have found it harder and harder to engage in their core business   
      of drug-trafficking and have been forced to diversify their income      
      streams, mainly from other criminal activities. Cash flow is important  
      for the cartels because it takes a lot of money to hire and equip       
      enforcer units to protect against incursions from rival cartels and     
      the Mexican government. It also takes money to purchase narcotics and   
      smuggle them from South America into the United States. A reliance on   
      other criminal enterprises to generate income is not a new development  
      for either Los Zetas or the VCF. Los Zetas have been active in human    
      smuggling, oil theft, extortion and contract enforcement, while the     
      VCF has engaged in extortion and kidnap-for-ransom operations. But in   
      2010, as these groups found themselves with their backs against the     
      wall and increasingly desperate, they began to further expand their     
      tactics.                                                                
                                                                              
      Los Zetas found themselves in the crosshairs of Mexican military and    
      Federal Police operations in Monterrey beginning in June with the       
      arrest of Zeta leader Hector *El Tori* Raul Luna Luna in a Mexican      
      military operation. Less than a month later, on July 7, Hector*s        
      brother, Esteban *El Chachis* Luna Luna, who had taken over the         
      leadership position in Monterrey, was captured in yet another Mexican   
      military operation. A senior lieutenant in Los Zetas, known only as     
      *El Sonrics,* was chosen to be the third leader in Monterrey in as      
      many months after the arrest of Esteban Luna Luna. El Sonrics* tenure   
      lasted about as long as his predecessor*s, however. On Aug. 14 in       
      Monterrey, El Sonrics was killed in a firefight with members of the     
      Mexican military along with three Los Zetas bodyguards. A month and a   
      half later, on Oct. 6, Jose Raymundo Lopez Arellano was taken down in   
      San Nicolas de las Garza in yet another Mexican military operation. In  
      other operations in the Monterrey area during this period, Mexican      
      authorities also seized several large weapons caches belonging to Los   
      Zetas and killed and arrested numerous lower-level Los Zetas            
      operatives.                                                             
                                                                              
      In their weakened state, Los Zetas began to increase the number of KFR  
      operations in the Monterrey area. Previously, KFR operations conducted  
      by Los Zetas typically targeted people who owed the organization        
      money, but as the group became increasingly pressured by Mexican        
      security forces and the New Federation, they began targeting            
      high-net-worth individuals for quick cash to supplement their income.   
      This wave of kidnappings in Monterrey led the U.S. consulate there to   
      order the departure of all minor dependents of U.S. government          
      personnel.                                                              
                                                                              
      The VCF, which had already been engaged in large-scale extortion and    
      KFR operations, reverted to lashing out at perceived injustices in its  
      targeting and tactics, not for financial gain, but rather to gain room  
      to maneuver in the increasingly crowded Juarez metropolitan area.       
      Largely due to the continuing high levels of violence in the area,      
      Juarez boasts the highest concentration of federal Mexican security     
      forces in the country, with the Federal Police operating in the urban   
      areas and the Mexican military operating on the outskirts and in        
      surrounding rural areas. The VCF has made it no secret that it          
      believes the Federal Police are working for and protecting the Sinaloa  
      Federation in Juarez. The IED detonation on July 15 was in response to  
      the arrest of high-ranking VCF lieutenant Jesus *El 35* Armando Acosta  
      Guerrero. La Linea, the VCF enforcement arm, had killed a rival and     
      placed the corpse in a small car with the IED and phoned in a report    
      of a body in a car, knowing that the Federal Police would likely        
      respond. At about 7:30 p.m. local time, as paramedics and Federal       
      Police agents arrived on the scene, the IED was remotely detonated      
      inside the car using a cell phone. The blast killed two Federal Police  
      agents and two paramedics and injured several more first-responders.    
      The exact composition of the device is still unknown, but the           
      industrial water-gel explosive TOVEX was used as the main charge. In    
      the hours following the incident, a narcomanta appeared a few           
      kilometers from the crime scene stating that La Linea would continue    
      using car bombs.                                                        
                                                                              
      La Linea tried to deploy another device under similar circumstances     
      Sept. 10 in Juarez, but Federal Police agents were able to identify     
      the IED and called in the Mexican military to defuse the device. There  
      were also three small IEDs deployed in Ciudad Victoria, Tamaulipas      
      state, in August. On Aug. 5, a substation housing the rural patrol      
      element of the Municipal Transit Police was attacked with a small IED   
      concealed inside a vehicle. Then on Aug. 27, two other IEDs placed in   
      cars were detonated outside Televisa studios and a Municipal Transit    
      Police station in Ciudad Victoria. The Ciudad Victoria IED attacks      
      were never claimed, but Los Zetas are thought to have been              
      responsible. The geographic and cartel-territorial disparity between    
      Ciudad Victoria and Juarez makes it unlikely that the same bombmaker    
      is responsible for all the devices encountered in Mexico this year.     
                                                                              
      Marking the first successful deployment of an IED by a Mexican          
      organized criminal group in the modern day, the July 15 incident in     
      Juarez was a clear escalation of cartel tactics. While the devices      
      successfully deployed so far in 2010 have been small in size, they did  
      show some degree of competency on the part of the bombmakers. The La    
      Linea and Ciudad Victoria bombers also showed some discretion in their  
      targeting by not detonating the devices among innocent civilians.       
      However, should these groups continue to deploy IEDs, the imprecise     
      nature of the tactic does increase the risk of innocent civilians       
      being killed or injured.                                                
                                                                              
      Rising levels of violence, combined with IEDs and the targeting of      
      people not involved in the drug war in extortion and                    
      kidnapping-for-ransom operations, are taxing the civilian population.   
      The trends have also begun to affect business operations in parts of    
      Mexico*s industrial core, particularly Monterrey, where industrial      
      executives live in gated and fortified compounds, travel in armed       
      convoys and send their children to the United States or Europe to       
      escape the kidnapping threat. In many parts of Mexico, the threat of    
      violence has had an adverse impact on small businesses such as          
      restaurants, since people are afraid to go out at night. And those      
      business owners are impacted even more when they are forced to pay      
      protection money to cartel gunmen.                                      
                                                                              
       Changing Roles                                                         
                                                                              
      The organized-crime problem in Mexico has always been perceived as a    
      domestic law-enforcement issue, but the country has always lacked a     
      competent and trustworthy law-enforcement apparatus. This is why        
      Calderon chose the Mexican military to tackle the country*s drug        
      cartels head on: It was simply the best tool available at the time.     
      The Mexican military has traditionally been perceived as the least      
      corrupt security institution in Mexico, and it possesses the firepower  
      and tactical know-how to go up against similarly armed organized        
      criminal groups. However, Calderon*s choice to deploy the Mexican       
      military to fight the drug cartels on Mexican soil has drawn fierce     
      criticism from rival politicians and human-rights activists, mainly     
      due to concerns that the military is not trained to handle the          
      civilian population.                                                    
                                                                              
      To allay those concerns and create a more effective law-enforcement     
      apparatus, Calderon proposed a reform plan to the Mexican Congress in   
      September 2008 that would integrate the two existing federal law        
      enforcement agencies * the Federal Preventive Police and the Federal    
      Investigative Agency * into one organization, the Federal Police. The   
      plan called for existing agents and new recruits to undergo a much      
      more thorough vetting process and receive higher pay. The idea was to   
      build up a more professional force less vulnerable to corruption and    
      better able to fight the cartels. In implementation, however, the       
      reform process has faced several setbacks in weeding out corrupt        
      elements of the existing federal force. In October 2008, the            
      then-designated drug czar for Mexico, Noe Gonzalez, was found to be     
      receiving $450,000 a month from the BLO for information about the       
      Mexican government*s counternarcotics operations, just one indication   
      of how far corruption permeated law enforcement agencies.               
                                                                              
      In January 2010, nearly a year and a half after Calderon presented the  
      reform plan to the Mexican congress, Federal Police agents began to     
      take control of Joint Operation Chihuahua, which had been led by the    
      Mexican military with the Federal Police in a supporting role. On Jan.  
      13, the Mexican federal security forces mission in Chihuahua state was  
      officially renamed Coordinated Operation Chihuahua, to reflect the      
      official change in command as well as an influx of some 2,000 Federal   
      Police agents. Tactically, the change of command meant that the         
      Federal Police assumed all law-enforcement roles from the military in   
      the urban areas of northern Chihuahua, including police patrols,        
      investigations, intelligence operations, surveillance, first-response   
      and operation of the emergency 066 call center for Juarez (equivalent   
      to a 911 center in the United States). The Federal Police were tasked   
      with operating mainly in designated high-risk urban areas to locate     
      and dismantle existing cartel infrastructure using law-enforcement      
      methods rather than military methods. The military then assumed the     
      supporting role, charged with patrolling and monitoring the vast        
      desert expanses of the state*s rural areas and manning strategic        
      perimeter checkpoints to help stem the flow of narcotics through        
      remote border crossings. These changes in roles and areas of            
      operations were intended to better reflect the training and             
      capabilities of each force. While the enhanced Federal Police are       
      designed to operate in an urban environment and trained specifically    
      to interact with the civilian population, the Mexican military is       
      trained and equipped to engage in more kinetic operations in a rural    
      environment.                                                            
                                                                              
      Coordinated Operation Chihuahua was the first big test of Calderon*s    
      Federal Police reforms. When he renamed the operation, Calderon said    
      the effectiveness of the change in strategy would be evaluated in       
      December 2010, but at the time this report was being written no         
      evaluation had been released to the public. There have been several     
      arrests of low-level operatives, and even a few high-ranking            
      lieutenants such, as VCF leader Acosta and Los Aztecas leader Arturo    
      Gallegos Castrellon, but Chihuahua state still leads the nation in the  
      number of drug-related murders this year with more than 3,000 * more    
      than the next two states, Sinaloa and Guerrero, combined. While the     
      security environment in Juarez remains tumultuous and unpredictable,    
      the Mexican government launched the Federal Police-led Coordinated      
      Operation Northeast in Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon states in the wake of  
      the death of Gulf cartel leader Tony Tormenta, in an attempt to         
      pre-empt any violence from a Los Zetas offensive in the region. The     
      roles of Federal Police agents and Mexican military personnel in the    
      operation are nearly identical to their roles in Coordinated Operation  
      Chihuahua, and the Northeast operation suggests the Calderon            
      administration considers the change in strategy in Chihuahua a          
      success.                                                                
                                                                              
         National Security Act                                                
                                                                              
      While Calderon*s Federal Police reforms have begun to relieve the       
      Mexican military of domestic law-enforcement responsibilities, the      
      Mexican Congress has taken steps to limit the president*s ability to    
      deploy the military domestically at will. On April 28, the Mexican      
      Senate passed the National Security Act, a set of reforms that would    
      effectively redefine the role of the Mexican military in the cartel     
      wars, and while it is not yet law, it does indicate the country*s       
      attitude toward the domestic use of the military. The reforms range     
      from permitting only civilian law enforcement personnel to detain       
      suspects to repealing the ability of the president to declare a state   
      of emergency and suspend individual rights in cases involving           
      organized crime. While these reforms are notable, they would likely     
      have little effect at the operational level. This is because the armed  
      forces will likely remain the tip of the spear when it comes to         
      tactical operations against the cartels simply by having troops         
      accompanied by civilian police officers who conduct the actual          
      arrests. Representatives from Mexico*s Human Rights Commission would    
      also be present during these operations to address public grievances,   
      ensure no human-rights abuses have taken place and report them if they  
      have.                                                                   
                                                                              
      The most notable change in the proposed law is that the president       
      would no longer be able to deploy the armed forces whenever he wants    
      to. Individual state governors and legislatures would have to request   
      the deployment of troops to their regions once criminal activity has    
      gotten beyond the ability of state and local law-enforcement entities   
      to control. In practical terms this could prove difficult given the     
      limited size of the Mexican military. Many states, including            
      Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon, have previously requested significant        
      numbers of troops to augment the federal garrisons already there, only  
      to see their requests go unanswered due to a lack of available troops.  
                                                                              
      Limiting the executive branch*s power to deploy the military            
      domestically has already politicized the battlefield in Mexico, much    
      of which lies in the northern border region. This is where most of the  
      Mexican security forces are deployed, and these are also states that    
      are governed by Calderon*s political opponents, the Institutional       
      Revolutionary Party (PRI). Friction has emerged between these states    
      and federal entities on how best to combat organized crime, most        
      notably from former Chihuahua state Gov. Jose Reyes Baeza of the PRI,   
      who complained that federal security forces were complicating the       
      situation in Juarez and Chihuahua state and that the problem was a      
      law-enforcement issue that should be left to the Juarez municipal       
      police and Chihuahua state police. As 2012 elections draw closer,       
      Calderon*s campaign against the cartels will likely become even more    
      politicized as the three main parties in Mexico * the PRI, Calderon*s   
      National Action Party (PAN) and the Revolutionary Democratic Party      
      (PRD) * jockey for the Mexican presidency.                              
                                                                              
      So whether or not the new National Security Act will have an immediate  
      impact on the Mexican government*s countercartel campaign should it     
      become law, high levels of violence will continue to necessitate the    
      use of the Mexican armed forces, especially in regions where there is   
      not a reorganized and enhanced federal security operation in place.     
      State law enforcement has yet to demonstrate the ability to quell any   
      outbreak of violence, so even the political friction between the PRI    
      state governors and Calderon*s PAN administration will not preclude a   
      military role in counternarcotics efforts.                              
                                                                              
         Unified State Police Command                                         
                                                                              
      One thing that has become obvious during the past three years of the    
      federal government*s offensive against the cartels is that government   
      resources are stretched thin * the Mexican government simply doesn*t    
      have the manpower to be everywhere federal security forces need to be.  
      One possible solution is to build up the capability of individual       
      states to handle many criminal matters on their own, without the aid    
      of federal security forces. On June 3, the Mexican National Public      
      Security Council approved a proposal by Calderon to establish a         
      commission charged with creating a new unified police force             
      nationwide. Under the plan, each state would have a new statewide       
      police force that would eventually replace all municipal-level law      
      enforcement entities. These new state police agencies would all report  
      to a single federal entity, the Unified State Police Command, in order  
      to ensure a unified strategy in combating drug-trafficking              
      organizations and other organized criminal elements.                    
                                                                              
      The idea of replacing some 2,000 municipal police agencies with state   
      or federal law enforcement personnel has been floating around Mexican   
      political and security circles since about 2008, but certain obstacles  
      * mainly pervasive corruption * have prevented it from being realized.  
      Municipal-level law enforcement has traditionally been a thorn in the   
      side of the larger federal offensive against the cartels due to         
      incompetence, corruption and, in many cases, both. In some cases, the   
      Mexican military or Federal Police have been forced to completely take  
      over municipal police operations because the entire force was corrupt   
      or had resigned due to lack of pay or fear of cartel retribution. Lack  
      of funding for pay, training and equipment has led to many of the       
      problems at the local level, and under the new plan such funding would  
      come from larger state and federal budgets.                             
                                                                              
      The plan will likely take up to three years to fully implement, some    
      state governors estimate, and not only because of logistical hurdles.   
      The federal government also wants to give current municipal-level       
      police officers time to find new jobs, retire or be absorbed into the   
      new law-enforcement entity.                                             
                                                                              
      The new force will likely go through a vetting and training process     
      similar to that seen in the 2008 Federal Police reforms, but the        
      process will not be a quick and easy solution to Mexico*s               
      law-enforcement woes. While the new police force will serve as a        
      continuation of Calderon*s strategy of vetting and consolidating        
      Mexico*s law-enforcement entities, stamping out endemic corruption and  
      ineptitude in Mexico is a difficult task. Consolidating police reforms  
      at the local level should not be expected to produce meaningful         
      results any more quickly than the Federal Police program has. It is     
      very difficult to reform institutions when they exist in a culture      
      that tolerates and even expects corruption. Without changes to the      
      underlying culture of graft and corruption to support the new           
      institutions (for example, paying police a living wage and cultivating  
      public respect for their authority), these reformed institutions can    
      be expected to become corrupt in short order.                           
                                                                              
      In October, nine state governors from Chihuahua, Durango, Zacatecas,    
      Tamaulipas, Veracruz, Sinaloa, Oaxaca, Puebla and Hidalgo agreed to     
      begin the process and to have unified police commands within six        
      months.                                                                 
                                                                              
       Outlook for 2011                                                       
                                                                              
      The successes that Calderon has scored against the cartels in 2010      
      have helped his administration regain some public confidence in its     
      war against the cartels. But by disrupting the balance of power among   
      the cartels, the effort has made the cartel landscape throughout the    
      country more fluid and volatile than it was a year ago. Violence has    
      continued to escalate unabated and has reached unprecedented levels,    
      and as long as the cartel balance of power remains in a state of flux,  
      the violence will show no signs of diminishing. While direct action by  
      the Mexican government has fractured certain organizations * the BLO,   
      for instance * the cartel environment in Mexico is stressful in its     
      own right, and organizations falling victim to infighting only          
      exacerbate this stress. Indeed, fissures that opened in 2010 will       
      likely continue in 2011, and new will ones will quite possibly appear.  
                                                                              
      Calderon*s current strategy appears to be inciting more violence as     
      the cartels try to seize upon their rivals* perceived weaknesses, and   
      the federal government simply does not have the resources to            
      effectively contain it. While plans are in place to free up certain     
      aspects of the federal security apparatus, namely the reformed and      
      still-maturing Federal Police and the Unified State Police Command,     
      they are still several years away from being capable of adequately      
      addressing the security issues that Mexico is dealing with today. With  
      the 2012 presidential election approaching, unprecedented levels of     
      violence are politically unacceptable for Calderon and the PAN,         
      especially since Calderon has made the security situation in Mexico     
      the focus of his presidency.                                            
                                                                              
      Calderon is at a crossroads. The levels of violence are considered      
      unacceptable by the public and the government*s resources are           
      stretched to their limit. Unless all the cartel groups can be           
      decapitated and brought under control * something that is highly        
      unlikely given the limits of the Mexican government * the only way to   
      bring the violence down will be to restore an equilibrium of power      
      among the cartels. Calderon will need to take steps toward restoring    
      this balance in the next year if he hopes to quell the violence ahead   
      of the 2012 election.                                                   
                                                                              
      Calderon*s steps will likely go in one of two directions. The first     
      would be toward increased assistance and involvement from foreign       
      governments. With federal resources stretched to their limit, Calderon  
      and the Mexican government have nowhere else to look for legitimate     
      assistance in combating the violence. With foreign assistance, the      
      combined resources could effectively dismantle major cartel and other   
      criminal operations and restore security and control, particularly in   
      the northern tier of border states. Over the past several years there   
      has been an increase in the level of involvement of U.S. intelligence   
      in Mexican operations, and even members of the Mexican military         
      establishment have voiced their opinion that Mexico cannot continue     
      down its current path alone. The revelation of a joint U.S.-Mexican     
      intelligence center in the Mexican media in November is further         
      indication of the increased involvement of foreign agencies. However,   
      there was a tremendous political outcry by many in the PRD and PRI      
      after news of the joint intelligence center was made public. Mexican    
      social sensitivities to foreign forces operating on Mexican soil will   
      likely trigger an even bigger political backlash than what has already  
      been triggered by the violence, making foreign assistance the least     
      likely choice that Calderon will make.                                  
                                                                              
      The second direction is not a new option and has been discussed         
      quietly for several years. The Mexican federal government has never     
      been able to assert complete and total control over Mexican territory   
      very far outside of its central core region around Mexico City *        
      certainly not in its northern tier of border states. Going back to the  
      days of Pancho Villa in the early 1900s, the northern frontier of       
      Mexico has always been bandit country due to its inhospitable           
      environment and distance from the capital, and it remains so today.     
      Before the balance of cartel power was significantly disrupted by       
      Calderon in 2006, there were clear delineations of territory and rule   
      in the region, and while there was still occasional fighting between    
      cartels, the levels of violence were nowhere near what we are seeing    
      today. This was due in large part to the cartels* ability to            
      effectively police the region. It is in their interest to have          
      lower-level violence and other crimes, such as kidnapping, carjacking,  
      robberies, extortion and muggings, under control. Any sort of uptick    
      in criminal activity negatively affects their ability to traffic drugs  
      through their respective areas.                                         
                                                                              
      This second scenario involves a dominant entity purging or co-opting    
      its rivals and reducing the violence being practiced by the various     
      criminal groups. As this entity grows stronger it will be able to       
      direct more attention to controlling lower-level crimes so that DTOs    
      can carry out their business unimpeded. However, this situation would   
      not be able to play out without at least some degree of complicity      
      from elements of the Mexican government. While the Mexican government   
      has demonstrated the ability to significantly disrupt cartel            
      operations, it cannot control their territories, and it would need      
      some degree of compliance from the dominant cartel entity as well.      
                                                                              
      We began to see hints of such an arrangement in the first half of 2010  
      with the formation of the New Federation, but the organizations         
      involved were eventually forced to focus their attention elsewhere and  
      the goals of the alliance fell by the wayside. However, one key         
      element is still in play: the Sinaloa Federation. The Sinaloa           
      Federation has spread and increased its level of influence from         
      Tijuana to parts of the Rio Grande in Texas and has the most resources  
      at its disposal, making it the most capable of all the organizations    
      in Mexico today, and thus the most likely to lead an alliance that      
      could consolidate power in the volatile regions and keep them stable.   
      Sinaloa has remained remarkably intact throughout much of Calderon*s    
      offensive against the cartels, and it has even been accused by rival    
      cartels * most vocally by the VCF * of being favored by the Mexican     
      government. Over the course of the next year we will be watching for    
      indications that the Sinaloa Federation and any new friends it may      
      make along the way are becoming the dominant organized-crime entity     
      throughout Mexico.                                                      
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 20, 2010 12:13:29 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Varied Reactions to Belarus' Election Crackdown

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Varied Reactions to Belarus' Election Crackdown                          
                                                                              
      December 20, 2010 | 1740 GMT                                            
      Varied Reactions to Belarus' Election Crackdown                         
      ALEXANDER NATRUSKIN/AFP/Getty Images                                    
      Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko (L) with Russian President    
      Dmitri Medvedev on the sidelines of a customs union meeting Dec. 9      
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      While Western countries widely criticized the results of the            
      Belarusian presidential election * and subsequent violent crackdown on  
      protests * Russia took a more supportive stance. This indicates that    
      despite disputes between Moscow and Minsk in the months before the      
      vote, Russia*s interests and influence in Belarus are firm, and the     
      two are likely to only increase their cooperation.                      
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      Reactions to Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko*s widely         
      expected landslide re-election * and subsequent violent protests *      
      have been varied, with the West condemning the government*s             
      large-scale police crackdown on opposition forces and journalists       
      while Russia takes a more supportive stance. Particularly notable is    
      the Belarusian government*s accusation that the West aided these        
      protests.                                                               
                                                                              
      The divergence of these reactions, especially Russia*s overwhelming     
      support for Lukashenko, indicates that tensions between Moscow and      
      Minsk over the past year have been more theatrical than substantive.    
      The two countries are likely to only strengthen ties.                   
                                                                              
      When it became clear early in the election that Lukashenko would        
      receive another term, the opposition called the vote rigged and         
      rallied midday and throughout the evening Dec. 18 in Minsk*s central    
      square. More people than expected attended the rally * reports ranged   
      from 20,000-40,000 * with some participants scuffling with Belarusian   
      authorities. Plainclothes KGB forces cracked down heavily, arresting    
      more than 1,000 protesters after they attempted to storm a downtown     
      Minsk government building. By the morning of Dec. 20, seven of          
      Lukashenko*s nine opponents in the election were in custody, with one   
      of the leading candidates, Vladimir Neklajew, hospitalized after being  
      beaten by security forces.                                              
                                                                              
      Western governments widely condemned these actions, particularly        
      Poland, Sweden and Germany, which had offered Lukashenko financial aid  
      and cooperation if the vote was held freely and without intervention    
      by security forces. Both Poland*s and Sweden*s foreign ministries       
      expressed concern over the crackdowns and urged Belarus to reveal more  
      information behind the attacks on opposition forces, and Polish         
      President Bronislaw Komorowski called on the European Union to          
      re-examine its relationship via the Eastern Partnership toward          
      Belarus. German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle called the           
      crackdown *unacceptable* and said Germany would closely monitor the     
      results of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe*s   
      review of the election, which subsequently found the election to have   
      serious flaws. The U.S. Embassy in Minsk, meanwhile, said Washington    
      deplored the *extreme force* that was used by Belarusian authorities.   
                                                                              
      The Russian reaction to the election paints an entirely different       
      picture. Sergei Lebedev, mission chief for the Commonwealth of          
      Independent States* election-monitoring team, said the electoral        
      process was open, free and fair and that he had no doubt about the      
      legitimacy of the vote. Lebedev also said the subsequent unrest and     
      detention of opposition forces should not at all factor into the        
      monitoring team*s assessment. Meanwhile, State Secretary of the Union   
      State of Russia and Belarus Pavel Borodin accused the United States of  
      aiding in organizing the opposition, claiming, *Everything is coming    
      from beyond the ocean.* Borodin blamed the United States for providing  
      alcohol to protesters to fuel their fervor, a statement in line with    
      the Belarusian Interior Ministry*s claim that a majority of the         
      detained protesters were intoxicated. This supports STRATFOR*s          
      suspicion that Western, rather than simply local, forces would be       
      blamed by Belarusian authorities for inciting the riots.                
                                                                              
      Russia and Belarus had been engaged in a series of disputes in the      
      months preceding the election, prompting many to predict there was a    
      serious rupture impending between the two states. But just one week     
      before the election, the two countries reached a comprehensive customs  
      union and energy tariff deal, in a sign that relations had been         
      repaired between Minsk and Moscow * at least to the point of Russia     
      implicitly backing Lukashenko*s re-election. To the chagrin of the      
      West, Russia*s support of Lukashenko*s political legitimacy and         
      restraint from criticizing the security crackdowns indicates that       
      Russia and Belarus have not had a major falling out. While there is     
      sure to be more political theater and instances of confrontational      
      rhetoric between the two, Moscow*s interests and levers into Minsk are  
      firm, and cooperation will likely only increase between the states      
      into the future.                                                        
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 20, 2010 12:49:22 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: North Korea's Restraint and Offers

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     North Korea's Restraint and Offers                                       
                                                                              
      December 20, 2010 | 1804 GMT                                            
      North Korea's Restraint and Offers                                      
      Korea Pool/Getty Images                                                 
      South Korean marines patrolling Yeonpyeong Island on Dec. 20            
                                                                              
      The South Korean military ended a live-fire artillery exercise on       
      Yeonpyeong Island on Dec. 20 without incident. Such exercises           
      typically are routine, as South Korea has a military base on the        
      island. This time, however, North Korea had threatened to retaliate if  
      the drill went ahead, while China and Russia asked Seoul to cancel      
      given the escalated tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Despite its       
      previous warning, North Korea*s military did not retaliate. The firing  
      drill came just after longtime Korea mediator and outgoing governor of  
      New Mexico Bill Richardson finished a five-day visit to North Korea     
      that saw Pyongyang extend various olive branches.                       
                                                                              
      Pyongyang*s restraint during the South Korean drill may bring the       
      offers made during Richardson*s trip to fruition. But the offers are    
      symbolic: None represents a move by the North toward denuclearization   
      or an end to other provocative actions against the South. They do,      
      however, represent a time-honored tactic by Pyongyang.                  
                                                                              
      According to CNN, the North offered to admit International Atomic       
      Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors for the first time since they were      
      expelled in April 2009. It also offered to allow its 12,000 fuel rods,  
      which can be used to produce plutonium for nuclear weapons, to be       
      shipped abroad. The North also accepted a proposal to create a          
      trilateral military commission between the United States and the two    
      Koreas, and said it was open to a proposal to set up a military         
      hotline with the South. Finally, the North said it was willing to       
      repatriate the remains of several hundred U.S. servicemen killed        
      during Korean War.                                                      
                                                                              
      The offer to allow IAEA inspectors to return follows the North*s        
      display of its uranium enrichment facility to a U.S expert in           
      November. The newly revealed facility gives Pyongyang another           
      bargaining chip for use during any resumption of multilateral talks.    
      While Washington and its allies have not agreed to China*s proposed     
      six-way emergency talks, the offer to readmit IAEA inspectors makes     
      such a resumption more likely. Nevertheless, without specifying which   
      facilities would be subject to inspection, or what would follow any     
      inspections, this gesture is probably not a significant step toward     
      denuclearization.                                                       
                                                                              
      Meanwhile, agreeing to the military commission suits North Korea*s      
      long-held desire for direct dialogue with the United States. While the  
      function of the military commission remains unclear, the North hopes    
      that direct ties to the United States will improve its status           
      internationally.                                                        
                                                                              
      Returning the remains of U.S. soldiers is another symbolic gesture      
      that might win the North concessions. Pyongyang previously agreed to    
      return six bodies in April 2007. In response to North Korea*s overall   
      more cooperative approach at the time, Washington unfroze North Korean  
      funds in Macau, eventually leading to the resumption of six-party       
      talks in September 2007 (the talks had started in March but halted      
      shortly thereafter).                                                    
                                                                              
      Symbolic though they may be, Pyongyang*s offers are just enough to      
      enable the United States and its allies to say that their               
      prerequisites for new talks * chiefly that North Korea demonstrate      
      *sincerity* and cease provocations * have been at least partially met.  
      They also show that North Korea is operating via its old playbook,      
      building up tensions to gain negotiation leverage only to step back     
      and make sudden concessions to induce talks.                            
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 20, 2010 2:00:25 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Possible Grenade Attack in the Kenyan Capital

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Possible Grenade Attack in the Kenyan Capital                            
                                                                              
      December 20, 2010 | 1911 GMT                                            
      Grenade Attack in the Kenyan Capital                                    
      STR/AFP/Getty Images                                                    
      Kenyan police officers in Nairobi in November                           
                                                                              
      Unidentified assailants attacked a Kampala-bound bus in Nairobi*s       
      central business district Dec. 20, injuring multiple people, Kenyan     
      media reported. A STRATFOR source in Nairobi has reported that the      
      blast may have killed as many as six people. There is little            
      information available at present, and Kenyan media reports have been    
      contradictory. One report indicated that there were up to four          
      attackers involved, and that multiple attackers were reportedly seen    
      throwing grenades onto the bus as passengers were boarding it ahead of  
      its departure for the Ugandan capital. Another report claimed a bag     
      exploded just before being loaded onto the bus. Casualty reports are    
      likewise sketchy, but the most recent report quotes Kenyan Police       
      Commissioner Mathew Iteere as saying one individual was killed and 26   
      others were wounded. Up to three of the attackers were reportedly shot  
      and killed by Kenyan police.                                            
                                                                              
      The attack comes the same day that Uganda*s police chief issued a       
      warning of impending terrorist attacks in Kampala. In a Dec. 20         
      interview with AFP, Inspector-General Kale Kayihura said that Ugandan   
      authorities had received *strong indications* that al Qaeda, Somali     
      jihadist group al Shabaab and Ugandan rebel group Allied Democratic     
      Forces (ADF) wished to conduct terrorist attacks during the holiday     
      season. Kayihura also said that Kampala had received specific           
      intelligence detailing such plots, and that Uganda was actively         
      working with neighboring countries, including Kenya, to combat the      
      threat. However, the threat described by Kayihura focused mainly on     
      the possibility of an attack inside Uganda specifically.                
                                                                              
      There have been no confirmations yet that this was a jihadist attack,   
      but the timing suggests that this may be the case. There have been      
      multiple grenade attacks in Nairobi in recent weeks, though none have   
      yet to be attributed to al Shabaab. Kampala has been in a continuous    
      state of heightened alert since the al Shabaab dual suicide bombings    
      there in July. The alerts in Uganda and the steps taken by authorities  
      there may have forced the attackers to strike in Kenya instead.         
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 20, 2010 2:42:28 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Obstacles to Improved Russian-Latvian Ties

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Obstacles to Improved Russian-Latvian Ties                               
                                                                              
      December 20, 2010 | 2036 GMT                                            
      Obstacles to Improved Russian-Latvian Ties                              
      DMITRY KOSTYUKOV/AFP/Getty Images                                       
      Russian President Dmitri Medvedev (R) with Latvian President Valdis     
      Zatlers during a Dec. 20 meeting at the Kremlin                         
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      A Latvian delegation to Russia led by President Valdis Zatlers came     
      away with economic opportunities as well as favorable circumstances     
      for a political reconciliation between the two countries. This could    
      form the basis for thawing bilateral relations * Moscow wants to        
      consolidate its sphere of influence, and Riga is mired in a painful     
      economic crisis and looking for economic opportunities. However,        
      Latvia has borne the brunt of three centuries of Russian power, and     
      Riga will thus be wary of any Russian moves in Latvia.                  
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      Latvian President Valdis Zatlers and a large Latvian business           
      delegation visited Russia on Dec. 20 to discuss relations and business  
      opportunities between Moscow and Riga. After meetings with the          
      delegation, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev announced the creation    
      of a joint commission to analyze contentious historical issues between  
      the two countries, and Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry         
      President Yevgeny Primakov spoke of unused potential in bilateral       
      economic relations. Zatlers, for his part, threw Latvia*s support       
      behind Russia*s request for a European Union visa waiver.               
                                                                              
      Relations between Riga and Moscow have been tense for the past three    
      centuries, but this visit suggests a possible thaw in ties. However,    
      there are considerable impediments to a successful improvement of       
      relations, beginning with Riga*s suspicion of Moscow*s intentions.      
                                                                              
      As one of the three Baltic states, Latvia has historically felt the     
      full brunt of Russian power. Originally part of the Swedish and Polish  
      spheres of influence, Latvia came under direct Russian control in the   
      18th century as Moscow flexed its geopolitical muscles. Latvia briefly  
      regained its independence during the chaos of the Bolshevik Revolution  
      but lost it again in 1944 as the Red Army advanced toward Germany.      
      Then in 1991, Latvia used Moscow*s weakness, amid the collapse of the   
      Soviet Union, to declare independence, managing to get into both the    
      EU and NATO in 2004 before Russia was able to fully consolidate itself  
      as a regional power.                                                    
                                                                              
      Obstacles to Improved Russian-Latvian Ties                              
                                                                              
      Latvia is thus understandably sensitive to the ongoing Russian          
      resurgence. Furthermore, 25 to 30 percent of Latvia*s population is     
      Russian, a product of Moscow*s Soviet-era population movement plan to   
      *Russianize* the Baltic states. Riga*s main opposition party, the       
      Harmony Center alliance, appeals to that minority with an outwardly     
      pro-Russian stance * and had a solid performance in Latvia*s Oct. 2     
      parliamentary elections. * The simultaneous Russian resurgence and the  
      fraying of NATO and the EU has left Baltic states feeling isolated. As  
      such, Riga is probing whether Russian pressure can be abated with       
      compromise, political conversation and economic links. Latvia also      
      feels pinched by austerity measures and a severe recession in the       
      Baltic states and is therefore looking for new economic opportunities,  
      both in terms of opening new markets and getting fresh investments.     
      With Russian privatization and modernization ongoing, Riga is hoping    
      that increased trade and investments will lure Moscow to compromise     
      while giving Latvia*s struggling economy a new market opportunity.      
      Latvia*s offer of supporting Russia*s demand for the EU visa waiver is  
      part of that compromise. Moscow*s proposal to set up a commission on    
      difficult historical issues is the same strategy Russia used in         
      placating some of Poland*s concerns in Moscow*s ongoing charm           
      offensive toward Warsaw.                                                
                                                                              
      However, Poland and Latvia have different ways of interpreting          
      Russia*s moves. While Poland is certainly skeptical of Russian          
      intentions, it has a history of being a regional power itself. It is    
      also not clear that the historical issues of concern between Poland     
      and Latvia are truly comparable, particularly those of the Soviet era.  
      Riga is wholly defenseless without external aid * even more so than     
      Poland.                                                                 
                                                                              
      Furthermore, it is not clear if Latvia is truly comfortable with        
      enhancing economic links to Russia. Primakov directly alluded to the    
      use of Latvian ports for Russian economic * and thus strategic *        
      concerns as one of the avenues of Russian interest. With Russia,        
      economic and political interests are rarely separated. Therefore,       
      while the visit does illustrate that cooperation may be possible        
      between Russia and Latvia, it is not clear that Riga will be able to    
      maintain a sustained effort without reverting to its suspicions of      
      Moscow. If history is a guide, Russia*s mere presence will set off      
      alarm bells in Riga.                                                    
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 20, 2010 4:29:28 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: An Alternative View on Iran's Subsidy Reforms

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     An Alternative View on Iran's Subsidy Reforms                            
                                                                              
      December 20, 2010 | 2201 GMT                                            
      Iran Cuts its Gasoline Subsidies                                        
      ATTA KENARE/AFP/Getty Images                                            
      A gasoline station in Tehran                                            
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      As Iran drastically cuts its subsidies on gasoline, many in the West    
      are viewing the move as evidence that the U.S.-backed sanctions regime  
      is working to drive Iran toward negotiations. However, a STRATFOR       
      source close to the Iranian government has shed light on the            
      unintended consequences of the sanctions regime and how the country*s   
      growing foreign exchange reserves are contributing to Iranian           
      President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad*s confidence in the current spate of      
      nuclear negotiations.                                                   
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      STRATFOR sources have reported a heavy security presence at critical    
      road junctures in major Iranian cities after Tehran moved to            
      dramatically cut gasoline subsidies Dec. 19, sending gasoline prices    
      soaring overnight from the heavily subsidized rate of 38 cents a        
      gallon to $1.44 a gallon. While Western media are characterizing the    
      subsidy cuts as undeniable proof of the success of a U.S.-led           
      sanctions campaign targeting Iran*s gasoline imports, a STRATFOR        
      Iranian source with connections to the regime has offered an            
      alternative interpretation, one that may give Iran much more room to    
      maneuver in upcoming nuclear negotiations than previously thought.      
                                                                              
       Sanctions and Side Effects                                             
                                                                              
      The source claims the administration of Iranian President Mahmoud       
      Ahmadinejad seems pleased with the way the nuclear negotiations are     
      progressing. The source attributed Iran*s willingness to engage in the  
      next round of nuclear talks in late January primarily to Iran*s         
      current economic situation, which has seen both negative and positive   
      impacts from the U.S.-led sanctions campaign.                           
                                                                              
      The latest round of international sanctions, which built up over this   
      past summer, pressured major banks to cut ties with Iran while also     
      making Tehran seek out gasoline supplies on the black market, forcing   
      it to pay an extremely high premium over the market rate. The           
      financial pressures combined to force Tehran to reduce its imports      
      overall and divert more of its petrochemical complexes toward           
      substandard gasoline production to compensate for shortfalls.           
                                                                              
      Iran made several moves to try and insulate itself from the sanctions,  
      several of which have apparently resulted in a significant increase in  
      the country*s foreign exchange (forex) reserves. According to Iran*s    
      central bank, foreign exchange reserves have reached the highest level  
      on record, at more than $100 billion. STRATFOR sources attributed the   
      increase to several factors including a strong increase in the value    
      of the 15 percent of Iran*s currency reserves held in gold and the      
      withdrawal of 4 billion euros (slightly more than $5 billion) from      
      European banks during the past year. One source said one of the         
      biggest reasons for the increase in reserves has been the U.S.-backed   
      sanctions regime, which has made it increasingly difficult for Iran to  
      buy imports, thus causing its forex balances to grow. In addition,      
      sanctions are reportedly hampering Iranian investors from moving        
      capital overseas, channeling those funds into government bonds.         
                                                                              
      In taking advantage of the sanctions regime, banks in Kuala Lumpur,     
      Yerevan and Dubai in particular have been charging the Iranians         
      exorbitant rates, sometimes exceeding 35 percent of the amount of the   
      transaction, making Iran increasingly reliant on its allies in          
      countries such as Venezuela for its financial transactions. In the      
      negotiations currently taking place over the stability of Lebanon,      
      Ahmadinejad is reportedly pushing Lebanese Prime Minister Saad          
      al-Hariri to assist Iran in circumventing financial sanctions through   
      Lebanese banks. Iranian officials are also encouraged by recent rumors  
      that several major European banks and firms are now privately           
      pressuring their host governments to relax sanctions against Iran,      
      using its willingness to engage in the upcoming nuclear negotiations    
      as justification to ease the existing business constraints.             
                                                                              
       A Calculated Risk with Subsidy Reforms                                 
                                                                              
      While the sanctions have undoubtedly made it more difficult for Iran    
      to conduct day-to-day business in the global market, they may have      
      also created appreciable political benefits for Ahmadinejad, both at    
      home and abroad. The Iranian government has been battling internally    
      over the timing of the subsidy phase-out, with many of Ahmadinejad*s    
      political rivals attempting to use the issue to undermine the           
      president*s popular support. While the gasoline subsidies are the most  
      discussed, they are only the first part of the Iranian government*s     
      long-anticipated * and much needed * economic reform package, which     
      aims to cut subsidies on other consumer necessities such as food,       
      health care and education as well.                                      
                                                                              
      To help mitigate public outrage over the plan, the government has       
      opened individual bank accounts for tens of millions of Iranians and    
      has begun depositing anywhere between $20 and $150 per month to defray  
      the cost-of-living increases that will ensue. Naturally, this will      
      undercut the expected economic benefits from the subsidy phase-out,     
      but politically, it allows the Iranian president to set up a more       
      direct line of support between him and his constituents. The shift in   
      economic dependency, so Ahmadinejad hopes, will translate into          
      political votes down the line.                                          
                                                                              
      Moreover, low inflation * for Iran * at about 10 percent, well below a  
      multidecade average of 20 percent, and ample forex reserves could       
      provide the confidence the administration needs to enact these          
      aggressive reforms. STRATFOR*s Iranian sources also appear to have      
      strong faith in the ability of the country*s security apparatus to      
      contain potential public disturbances, similar to those that occurred   
      in 2007 when the government implemented a gasoline rationing system.    
                                                                              
       Financial Cushion for Foreign Policy Moves?                            
                                                                              
      The same source claims that the Iranian government feels it is now in   
      a position to calculate its next foreign policy moves on the basis of   
      the financial cushion provided by its forex reserves as opposed to      
      strictly its energy assets. This insight, if accurate, puts the next    
      round of nuclear negotiations, slated for late January in Istanbul, in  
      an interesting context. While Iran can quietly encourage the United     
      States to think that its sanctions regime is what is actually driving   
      Tehran to negotiate, Ahmadinejad can use this economic leeway to        
      engage in talks, buy more time and convey an altogether more            
      reasonable impression, eroding the argument of those calling for a      
      military strike against Iran*s nuclear facilities. Meanwhile, Iran has  
      reshaped the negotiating atmosphere through its success in involving    
      Turkey in the talks after much resistance from the United States, and   
      will attempt to extract concessions in these nuclear negotiations to    
      ease the sanctions.                                                     
                                                                              
      While some posturing is expected as both sides attempt to shape         
      perceptions of the strength of their negotiating positions, a number    
      of signs have emerged that contradict the popular view that             
      Ahmadinejad has been backed against a wall by his political rivals and  
      is caving under sanctions. STRATFOR has maintained that while the       
      rumblings within the regime have grown louder since the June 2009       
      election, Ahmadinejad has been quite skillful in outmaneuvering his     
      political rivals. The recent sacking of Iranian Foreign Minister        
      Manouchehr Mottaki appears to be a case in point. Should the nuclear    
      negotiations go as planned, Ahmadinejad can then argue at home that     
      his policies are what rendered the sanctions impotent, while using the  
      compensation for the subsidy cuts to expand his political base.         
                                                                              
      STRATFOR is working to gain deeper insight into what the Ahmadinejad    
      government may be calculating going into the next round of nuclear      
      talks. Based on what we have learned thus far, the way these talks are  
      shaping up may be far more revealing of the unintended consequences of  
      the U.S.-led sanctions campaign against Iran than they are of its       
      success.                                                                
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 20, 2010 5:54:29 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Mexico Security Memo: Dec. 20, 2010

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Mexico Security Memo: Dec. 20, 2010                                      
                                                                              
      December 20, 2010 | 2338 GMT                                            
      Mexico Security Memo: April 26, 2010                                    
                                                                              
       IED attack on Police in Nuevo Leon                                     
                                                                              
      A small improvised explosive device (IED) detonated around 1 p.m. Dec.  
      17 inside a sport-utility vehicle outside the Zuazua Public Security    
      Secretariat offices (the equivalent of a municipal police station) in   
      Zuazua, Nuevo Leon state. In addition to destroying the vehicle, the    
      blast injured at least three people and damaged several surrounding     
      vehicles. A message attributed to the Sinaloa Federation and Gulf       
      cartel addressed to *Zeta Police* was found shortly thereafter near     
      the site of the explosion that read, *The state of Nuevo Leon does not  
      guarantee the security of its citizens in the state, and more than a    
      thousand kidnappings are not reported for fear of the authorities.      
      Eleven more car bombs are waiting to be detonated to bring justice for  
      the kidnapped, for the police and corrupt officials are aware.* Nuevo   
      Leon authorities have been quick to say the claim of 11 more IEDs is    
      false, but have offered little in the way of proof. Additionally,       
      authorities have not officially said whether they believe area          
      drug-trafficking organizations were involved in the attack, despite     
      the very public message.                                                
                                                                              
      This attack is the year*s fifth successful deployment of an IED         
      against a specified target in Mexico; one occurred in Ciudad Juarez,    
      Chihuahua state, and three occurred near Ciudad Victoria, Tamaulipas    
      state. While there has not been any indication as to the composition    
      or exact size of the device, photographic evidence of the blast scene   
      indicates that the device was relatively small and on the scale seen    
      with other devices deployed in the country this year.                   
                                                                              
      The enforcement arm of the Vicente Carrillo Fuentes (VCF)               
      organization, La Linea, was responsible for the Juarez IED on July 15,  
      and the group indicated after the attack that it would continue its     
      *car bomb* campaign as long as the Federal Police continued to support  
      the Sinaloa Federation, which the VCF accuses the police of doing.      
      Despite these warnings, only one other IED was deployed in Juarez, a    
      few weeks later, and the Mexican military was able to render it safe    
      before it detonated. However, it appears from the message left near     
      the scene and the geographic disparity between Juarez and Nuevo Leon    
      that entirely different actors were responsible for the Dec. 17         
      incident.                                                               
                                                                              
      The message falls in line with the strategy pursued by the New          
      Federation alliance. In the spring, elements of the New Federation      
      began taking the fight against Los Zetas to their stronghold in the     
      Monterrey metro region, targeting not only Los Zetas members and        
      operatives but also their support network in the region, including      
      local politicians and local and regional police.                        
                                                                              
      It remains to be seen whether the Sinaloa Federation and the Gulf       
      cartel will actually follow through with a sustained bombing campaign   
      against law enforcement believed to be associated with Los Zetas. If    
      the groups do follow through with their pledge to deploy 11 more IEDs,  
      it would be a significant escalation in the tempo of these types of     
      attacks. While IED attacks in the country thus far have been            
      discriminating in their targeting, the imprecise nature of IEDs         
      greatly increases the risk of civilian casualties.                      
                                                                              
       Nuevo Laredo Prison Break                                              
                                                                              
      A prison break the morning of Dec. 17 at the Center for Social          
      Readaptation (CERESO) in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state, led to the     
      escape of between 141 and 192 prisoners (the latest figure reported     
      was 151). This is merely the latest in a string of prison breaks in     
      Tamaulipas since January; the total number of prisoners having escaped  
      in the state this year is more than 300.                                
                                                                              
      In the Dec. 17 escape, the prisoners (reportedly both federal and       
      local), working with complicit guards, were able to exit the prison     
      facilities through a service entrance into waiting vehicles.            
      Additionally, the prison director was reported missing the morning of   
      Dec. 17. Multiple source reports indicate Los Zetas were the primary    
      orchestrators of the escape, with some STRATFOR sources saying Los      
      Zetas* motivation was to augment their forces in the region. The        
      prisoners were reportedly told that once released, they either must     
      work for Los Zetas or be killed. Additionally, STRATFOR sources said    
      the nephew of Los Zetas No. 2 Miguel *Z-40* Trevino Morales was one of  
      the escapees from the CERESO unit.                                      
                                                                              
      Los Zetas have experienced several setbacks throughout much of 2010,    
      with several regional plaza bosses and numerous operatives being        
      killed or apprehended. However, developments in the last few months     
      have weakened the Gulf cartel and the New Federation*s grip on          
      Tamaulipas border region, and Los Zetas appear to be poised to regain   
      some of their lost ground, particularly in the Reynosa and Matamoros    
      regions. If the reported ultimatum for the freed prisoners is correct,  
      this influx of forces for Los Zetas could provide the necessary         
      resources to begin a campaign to retake these lost areas. However, the  
      true number of prisoners that will actually go to work for Los Zetas    
      remains to be seen; some likely will renege on their promise and slip   
      back into Mexican society * only now with a bounty on their heads.      
                                                                              
      Mexico Security Memo: Dec. 20, 2010                                     
      (click here to view interactive map)                                    
                                                                              
         Dec. 13                                                              
                                                                              
        * Unidentified gunmen shot a man to death during a suspected          
          kidnapping in the Jardines Universidad neighborhood of              
          Guadalajara, Jalisco state.                                         
        * The body of an unidentified person was discovered near Tlajomulco,  
          Jalisco state. The body was wrapped in a blanket tied together      
          with a string and had a bag over its head.                          
                                                                              
         Dec. 14                                                              
                                                                              
        * Four police officers were reportedly shot to death by a fellow      
          police officer in Cancun, Quintana Roo state. The attacker later    
          committed suicide.                                                  
        * Police found a decapitated body in the trunk of a car in the        
          Ejidos de San Agustin neighborhood of Chimalhuacan, Mexico state.   
          The victim*s head had been placed on the trunk lid.                 
        * Two decapitated bodies were found on a soccer field in              
          Huixquilucan, Mexico state.                                         
                                                                              
         Dec. 15                                                              
                                                                              
        * In a recorded message released to a TV station, La Familia          
          Michoacana (LFM) leader Servando Gomez Martinez called on his       
          followers to continue fighting and called for more marches against  
          the federal government. Gomez Martinez also confirmed the death of  
          Nazario Gomez in Michoacan state during the week of Dec. 13.        
        * The dismembered body of a man was found in several bags in          
          Guadalajara, Jalisco state. A handwritten sign near the victim      
          attributed the crime to the Jalisco Cartel, New Generation.         
        * U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement announced the arrests of   
          eight suspected members of LFM in Georgia and North Carolina. One   
          of those arrested is believed to be the primary supplier of         
          illegal drugs for LFM in Washington.                                
        * Unidentified gunmen shot and injured two police officers in         
          Allende, Nuevo Leon state.                                          
        * Authorities were alerted through an anonymous call about three      
          boxes allegedly containing explosives that were placed near         
          separate hospitals in Cuernavaca, Morelos state. The boxes          
          contained clocks inside and were designed to give the appearance    
          of being explosive devices.                                         
                                                                              
         Dec. 16                                                              
                                                                              
        * Unidentified gunmen opened fire on a police guard post in the Roma  
          neighborhood of Monterrey, Nuevo Leon state, but did not cause any  
          injuries.                                                           
        * One suspected cartel gunman was killed and two bystanders were      
          injured during a firefight between soldiers and gunmen in the La    
          Estanzuela neighborhood of Monterrey, Nuevo Leon state.             
                                                                              
         Dec. 17                                                              
                                                                              
        * Unidentified gunmen kidnapped two employees from the nightclub      
          where they worked in Acapulco, Guerrero state. The victims were     
          later discovered shot to death.                                     
        * A decapitated head was discovered wrapped in cloth inside a bag     
          outside a bar near Texcoco, Mexico state.                           
        * A car with explosives inside was detonated outside a police         
          station in Zuazua, Nuevo Leon state. Approximately 151 inmates      
          escaped from a prison in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state. The        
          director of the prison was reported missing after the escape.       
                                                                              
         Dec. 18                                                              
                                                                              
        * Federal security forces arrested four police officers suspected of  
          participating in an attack on other police forces in Guadalupe,     
          Nuevo Leon state on Dec. 16. Ten other officers had been arrested   
          Dec. 17 for their alleged participation in the attack.              
        * An e-mail sent to news outlets by a group calling itself the        
          *Ex-Mysterious Disappearers* announced that former legislator       
          Diego Fernandez de Cevallos will be freed soon by his kidnappers.   
                                                                              
         Dec. 19                                                              
                                                                              
        * Unidentified gunmen forced security personnel to pull back from a   
          crime scene where a decapitated body was present in Juarez, Nuevo   
          Leon state. The gunmen reportedly arrived to recover the body.      
        * Military authorities announced the seizure of a suspected           
          methamphetamine lab in the municipality of Tuxpan, Jalisco state.   
        * Authorities announced the arrest of suspected Colombian drug        
          trafficker Jerson Enrique Camacho Cedeno in an unspecified part of  
          Mexico. Camacho Cedeno is allegedly linked to Los Zetas.            
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 20, 2010 6:25:26 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Ethnic Somali Behind Kenya Bus Blast

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Ethnic Somali Behind Kenya Bus Blast                                     
                                                                              
      December 21, 2010 | 0017 GMT                                            
      Somali National Behind Kenya Bus Blast                                  
      TONY KARUMBA/AFP/Getty Images                                           
      Kenyan Police Commissioner Mathew Iteere speaks to the press near the   
      scene of an attack Dec. 20 in Nairobi                                   
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      Uganda*s police chief announced that a *Somali national* was behind an  
      explosion on a bus in Nairobi destined for Kampala. The information     
      suggests the Somali jihadist group al Shabaab is to blame.              
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      Ugandan Inspector General of Police Kale Kayihura said late Dec. 20     
      that a *Somali national* was responsible for the explosion earlier      
      that night on a bus scheduled to depart Nairobi for Kampala. Kayihura   
      said his Kenyan counterparts informed him of the Somali connection,     
      though it is possible that it could have been in reference to an        
      ethnic Somali of a different nationality. Kayihura added that it was    
      unclear whether the explosion was due to an intentional attack          
      targeting the bus* passengers, the majority of whom were Ugandan, or    
      the result of an accidental premature *grenade* explosion. Regardless,  
      the fact that an ethnic Somali is being listed as the prime suspect     
      points to the likelihood that Somali jihadist group al Shabaab is to    
      blame.                                                                  
                                                                              
      As of this writing, the death toll in the explosion stands at three,    
      with upwards of 39 injured. Media accounts of the incident vary widely  
      due to confusion at the blast scene. According to some reports, a       
      struggle occurred at the bus* entrance beforehand, triggered by the     
      attempts of security officials to search the passengers* luggage and    
      pat them down as they loaded the bus. This version of events posits     
      that a box or some other form of luggage containing the explosive       
      device fell to the ground shortly before the blast, causing it to       
      detonate. Still others report that a bag was merely being inspected     
      when the bomb was detonated. Whether the explosion was caused by        
      accident or design is unknown, while earlier reports stating that four  
      attackers had thrown grenades onto the bus, with two of them            
      subsequently shot dead by police, now appear to have been inaccurate.   
                                                                              
      What is known is that the incident occurred while the bus was parked    
      in a lot near Nairobi*s Central Business District, waiting for          
      passengers to board; that multiple assailants were involved; and that   
      only one of the perpetrators died * the one last holding the package    
      or luggage that contained the explosive device. Photos of the blast     
      site seem to indicate that the device was smaller than those used in    
      the al Shabaab dual suicide bombings in Kampala last July.              
                                                                              
      The road from Nairobi to Kampala is a known transit point for al        
      Shabaab materiel, and security officials in both Kenya and Uganda have  
      operated with a heightened sense of awareness ever since the July       
      attacks. That security officials (whether they work for the bus         
      company, Kampala Coach, or the Kenyan government) were inspecting       
      luggage and searching passengers as they boarded is therefore           
      unsurprising. (This is not standard operating procedure for most bus    
      routes in Kenya.) Ten days before the explosion, Ugandan police         
      discovered a suspicious package containing bomb-making materiel on a    
      bus in Kampala from Kenya thanks to an advanced intelligence tip.       
      Kayihura had issued public warnings on both Dec. 15 and earlier Dec.    
      20 of the possibility that a terrorist attack was being planned in      
      Kampala, saying in the Dec. 20 interview that Uganda had received       
      *specific intelligence* about a plot to conduct a terrorist attack in   
      the country during the upcoming holiday season. He listed al Qaeda, al  
      Shabaab and Ugandan rebel group Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) as the   
      possible perpetrators. Just hours before the explosion, Kayihura said   
      that Ugandan security officials were working with other countries,      
      specifically Kenya, to combat the threat.                               
                                                                              
      Uganda is the largest contributor to the African Union Mission in       
      Somalia (AMISOM) peacekeeping force stationed in Mogadishu. Kenya, on   
      the other hand, has not contributed any soldiers to the roughly         
      8,000-strong mission, and has no plans to do so. While Kenya shares a   
      border with Somalia and is home to a much larger ethnic Somali          
      population, Kampala is a bigger target than Nairobi in al Shabaab*s     
      eyes. This is not only because of its government*s support for AMISOM,  
      but also because of what the jihadist group would stand to lose by      
      triggering an immense crackdown by the Kenyan government in what is     
      known to be an important al Shabaab logistics and fundraising hub. If   
      this device was indeed intentionally detonated in Nairobi, it was most  
      likely the result of the attacker deciding at the last minute to do     
      so, after the struggle with the security officials had begun.           
                                                                              
      Kenyan authorities continue to work to identify the identities of the   
      suspects involved, and reportedly have arrested at least one person in  
      connection with the blast as he attempted to flee down a nearby         
      street. One piece of luggage linked to the group has been recovered.    
      As the bus company has a list of all the passenger names, it is likely  
      that the information will be revealed shortly, though there could be a  
      delay due to the possibility that the assailants used false             
      identification. As usual in Nairobi following any sort of violence      
      involving Somalis, a security crackdown in the ethnic Somali            
      neighborhood of Eastleigh will ensue. The Ugandans will also increase   
      security in Kampala for the duration of the holiday season.             
                                                                              
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      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
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      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 21, 2010 4:07:12 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Geopolitical Weekly : Europe: The New Plan

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Europe: The New Plan                                                     
                                                                              
      December 21, 2010                                                       
                                                                              
      Taking Stock of WikiLeaks                                               
                                                                              
      By Peter Zeihan                                                         
                                                                              
      Europe is on the cusp of change. An EU heads-of-state summit Dec. 16    
      launched a process aimed to save the common European currency. If       
      successful, this process would be the most significant step toward      
      creating a singular European power since the creation of the European   
      Union itself in 1992 * that is, if it doesn*t destroy the euro first.   
                                                                              
      Envisioned by the EU Treaty on Monetary Union, the common currency,     
      the euro, has suffered from two core problems during its decade-long    
      existence: the lack of a parallel political union and the issue of      
      debt. Many in the financial world believe that what is required for a   
      viable currency is a fiscal union that has taxation power * and that    
      is indeed needed. But that misses the larger point of who would be in   
      charge of the fiscal union. Taxation and appropriation * who pays how   
      much to whom * are essentially political acts. One cannot have a        
      centralized fiscal authority without first having a centralized         
      political/military authority capable of imposing and enforcing its      
      will. Greeks are not going to implement a German-designed tax and       
      appropriations system simply because Berlin thinks it*s a good idea.    
      As much as financiers might like to believe, the checkbook is not the   
      ultimate power in the galaxy. The ultimate power comes from the law     
      backed by a gun.                                                        
                                                                              
       Europe*s Disparate Parts                                               
                                                                              
      This isn*t a revolutionary concept * in fact, it is one most people     
      know well at some level. Americans fought the bloodiest war in their    
      history from 1861 to 1865 over the issue of central power versus local  
      power. What emerged was a state capable of functioning at the           
      international level. It took three similar European wars * also in the  
      19th century * for the dozens of German principalities finally to       
      merge into what we now know as Germany.                                 
                                                                              
      Europe simply isn*t to the point of willing conglomeration just yet,    
      and we do not use the American Civil War or German unification wars as  
      comparisons lightly. STRATFOR sees the peacetime creation of a unified  
      European political authority as impossible, since Europe*s component    
      parts are far more varied than those of mid-19th century America or     
      Germany.                                                                
                                                                              
        * Northern Europe is composed of advanced technocratic economies,     
          made possible by the capital-generating capacity of the             
          well-watered North European Plain and its many navigable rivers     
          (it is much cheaper to move goods via water than land, and this     
          advantage grants nations situated on such waterways a steady        
          supply of surplus capital). As a rule, northern Europe prefers a    
          strong currency in order to attract investment to underwrite the    
          high costs of advanced education, first-world infrastructure and a  
          highly technical industrial plant. Thus, northern European exports  
          * heavily value added * are not inhibited greatly by a strong       
          currency. One of the many outcomes of this development pattern is   
          a people that identifies with its brethren throughout the river     
          valleys and in other areas linked by what is typically omnipresent  
          infrastructure. This crafts a firm identity at the national level   
          rather than local level and assists with mass-mobilization          
          strategies. Consequently, size is everything.                       
        * Southern Europe, in comparison, suffers from an arid, rugged        
          topography and lack of navigable rivers. This lack of rivers does   
          more than deny them a local capital base, it also inhibits          
          political unification; lacking clear core regions, most of these    
          states face the political problems of the European Union in         
          microcosm. Here, identity is more localized; southern Europeans     
          tend to be more concerned with family and town than nation, since   
          they do not benefit from easy transport options or the regular      
          contact that northern Europeans take for granted. Their economies   
          reflect this, with integration occurring only locally (there is     
          but one southern European equivalent of the great northern          
          industrial mega-regions such as the Rhine, Italy*s Po Valley).      
          Bereft of economies of scale, southern European economies are       
          highly dependent upon a weak currency to make their exports         
          competitive abroad and to make every incoming investment dollar or  
          deutschemark work to maximum effect.                                
        * Central Europe * largely former Soviet territories * have yet       
          different rules of behavior. Some countries, like Poland, fit in    
          well with the northern Europeans, but they require outside defense  
          support in order to maintain their positions. The frigid weather    
          of the Baltics limits population sizes, demoting these countries    
          to being, at best, the economic satellites of larger powers         
          (they*re hoping for Sweden while fearing it will be Russia).        
          Bulgaria and Romania are a mix of north and south, sitting astride  
          Europe*s longest navigable river yet being so far removed from the  
          European core that their successful development may depend upon     
          events in Turkey, a state that is not even an EU member. While      
          states of this grouping often plan together for EU summits, in      
          reality the only thing they have in common is a half-century of     
          lost ground to recover, and they need as much capital as can be     
          made available. As such variation might suggest, some of these      
          states are in the eurozone, while others are unlikely to join       
          within the next decade.                                             
                                                                              
      And that doesn*t even begin to include the EU states that have          
      actively chosen to refuse the euro * Denmark, Sweden and the United     
      Kingdom * or consider the fact that the European Union is now made up   
      of 27 different nationalities that jealously guard their political      
      (and in most cases, fiscal) autonomy.                                   
                                                                              
      The point is this: With Europe having such varied geographies,          
      economies and political systems, any political and fiscal union would   
      be fraught with complications and policy mis-prescriptions from the     
      start. In short, this is a defect of the euro that is not going to be   
      corrected, and to be blunt, it isn*t one that the Europeans are trying  
      to fix right now.                                                       
                                                                              
       The Debt Problem                                                       
                                                                              
      If anything, they are attempting to craft a work-around by addressing   
      the second problem: debt. Monetary union means that all participating   
      states are subject to the dictates of a single central bank, in this    
      case the European Central Bank (ECB) headquartered in Frankfurt. The    
      ECB*s primary (and only partially stated) mission is to foster          
      long-term stable growth in the eurozone*s largest economy * Germany *   
      working from the theory that what is good for the continent*s economic  
      engine is good for Europe.                                              
                                                                              
      One impact of this commitment is that Germany*s low interest rates are  
      applied throughout the currency zone, even to states with mediocre      
      income levels, lower educational standards, poorer infrastructure and   
      little prospect for long-term growth. Following their entry into the    
      eurozone, capital-starved southern Europeans used to interest rates in  
      the 10-15 percent range found themselves in an environment of rates in  
      the 2-5 percent range (currently it is 1.0 percent). To translate that  
      into a readily identifiable benefit, that equates to a reduction in     
      monthly payments for a standard 30-year mortgage of more than 60        
      percent.                                                                
                                                                              
      As the theory goes, the lower costs of capital will stimulate           
      development in the peripheral states and allow them to catch up to      
      Germany. But these countries traditionally suffer from higher interest  
      rates for good reasons. Smaller, poorer economies are more volatile,    
      since even tiny changes in the international environment can send them  
      through either the floor or the roof. Higher risks and volatility mean  
      higher capital costs. Their regionalization also engenders high         
      government spending as the central government attempts to curb the      
      propensity of the regions to spin away from the center (essentially,    
      the center bribes the regions to remain in the state).                  
                                                                              
      This means that when the eurozone spread to these places, theory went   
      out the window. In practice, growth in the periphery did accelerate,    
      but that growth was neither smooth nor sustainable. The unification of  
      capital costs has proved more akin to giving an American Express black  
      card to a college freshman: Traditionally capital poor states (and      
      citizens) have a propensity to overspend in situations where borrowing  
      costs are low, due to a lack of a relevant frame of reference. The      
      result has been massive credit binging by corporations, consumers and   
      governments alike, inevitably leading to bubbles in a variety of        
      sectors. And just as these states soared high in the first decade       
      after the euro was introduced, they have crashed low in the past year.  
      The debt crises of 2010 * so far precipitating government debt          
      bailouts for Ireland and Greece and an unprecedented bank bailout in    
      Ireland * can be laid at the feet of this euro-instigated               
      over-exuberance.                                                        
                                                                              
      It is this second, debt-driven shortcoming that European leaders        
      discussed Dec. 16. None of them want to do away with the euro at this   
      point, and it is easy to see why. While the common currency remains a   
      popular whipping boy in domestic politics, its benefits * mainly lower  
      transaction costs, higher purchasing power, unfettered market access    
      and cheaper and more abundant capital * are deeply valued by all        
      participating governments. The question is not *whither the euro* but   
      how to provide a safety net for the euro*s less desirable,              
      debt-related aftereffects. The agreed-upon path is to create a          
      mechanism that can manage a bailout even for the eurozone*s larger      
      economies when their debt mountains become too imposing. In theory,     
      this would contain the contradictory pressures the euro has created     
      while still providing to the entire zone the euro*s many benefits.      
                                                                              
       Obstacles to the Safety Net                                            
                                                                              
      Three complications exist, however. First, when a bailout is required,  
      it is clearly because something has gone terribly wrong. In Greece*s    
      case, it was out-of-control government spending with no thought to the  
      future; in essence, Athens took that black card and leapt straight      
      into the economic abyss. In Ireland*s case, it was private-sector       
      overindulgence, which bubbled the size of the financial sector to more  
      than four times the entire country*s gross domestic product. In both    
      cases, recovery was flat-out impossible without the countries*          
      eurozone partners stepping in and declaring some sort of debt holiday,  
      and the result was a complete funding of all Greek and Irish deficit    
      spending for three years while they get their houses in order.          
                                                                              
      *Houses in order* are the key words here. When the not-so-desperate     
      eurozone states step in with a few billion euros * 223 billion euros    
      so far, to be exact * they want not only their money back but also      
      some assurance that such overindulgences will not happen again. The     
      result is a deep series of policy requirements that must be adopted if  
      the bailout money is to be made available. Broadly known as austerity   
      measures, these requirements result in deep cuts to social services,    
      retirement benefits and salaries. They are not pleasant. Put simply:    
      Germany is attempting to trade financial benefits for the right to      
      make policy adjustments that normally would be handed by a political    
      union.                                                                  
                                                                              
      Europe: The New Plan                                                    
      (click here to enlarge image)                                           
                                                                              
      It*s a pretty slick plan, but it is not happening in a vacuum.          
      Remember, there are two more complications. The second is that the      
      Dec. 16 agreement is only an agreement in principle. Before any         
      Champagne corks are popped, one should consider that the *details* of   
      the agreement raise a more than *simply* trillion-euro question.        
      STRATFOR guesses that to deliver on its promises, the permanent         
      bailout fund (right now there is a temporary fund with a *mere* 750     
      billion euros) probably would need upwards of three trillion euros.     
      Why so much? The debt bailouts for Greece and Ireland were designed to  
      completely sequester those states from debt markets by providing those  
      governments with all of the cash they would need to fund their budgets  
      for three years. This wise move has helped keep the contagion from      
      spreading to the rest of the eurozone. Making any fund credible means   
      applying that precedent to all the eurozone states facing high debt     
      pressures, and using the most current data available, that puts the     
      price tag at just under 2.2 trillion euros. Add in enough extra so      
      that the eurozone has sufficient ammo left to fight any contagion and   
      we*re looking at a cool 3 trillion euros. Anti-crisis measures to this  
      point have enjoyed the assistance of both the ECB and the               
      International Monetary Fund, but so far, the headline figures have      
      been rather restrained when compared to future needs. Needless to say,  
      the process of coming up with funds of that magnitude when it is        
      becoming obvious to the rest of Europe that this is, at its heart, a    
      German power play is apt to be contentious at best.                     
                                                                              
      The third complication is that the bailout mechanism is actually only   
      half the plan. The other half is to allow states to at least partially  
      default on their debt (in EU diplomatic parlance, this is called the    
      *inclusion of private interests in funding the bailouts*). When the     
      investors who fund eurozone sovereign debt markets hear this, they      
      understandably shudder, since it means the European Union plans to      
      codify giving states permission to walk away from their debts *         
      sticking investors with the losses. This too is more than simply a      
      trillion-euro question. Private investors collectively own nearly all   
      of the eurozone*s 7.5 trillion euros in outstanding sovereign debt.     
      And in the case of Italy, Austria, Belgium, Portugal and Greece, debt   
      volumes worth half or more of GDP for each individual state are held    
      by foreigners.                                                          
                                                                              
      Assuming investors decide it is worth the risk to keep purchasing       
      government debt, they have but one way to mitigate this risk: charge    
      higher premiums. The result will be higher debt financing costs for     
      all, doubly so for the eurozone*s more spendthrift and/or weaker        
      economies.                                                              
                                                                              
      For most of the euro*s era, the interest rates on government bonds      
      have been the same throughout the eurozone, based on the inaccurate     
      belief that eurozone states would all be as fiscally conservative and   
      economically sound as Germany. That belief has now been shattered, and  
      the rate on Greek and Irish debt has now risen from 4.5 percent in      
      early 2008 to this week*s 11.9 percent and 8.6 percent, respectively.   
      With a formal default policy in the making, those rates are going to    
      go higher yet. In the era before monetary union became the Europeans*   
      goal, Greek and Irish government debt regularly went for 20 percent     
      and 10 percent, respectively. Continued euro membership may well put a  
      bit of downward pressure on these rates, but that will be more than     
      overwhelmed by the fact that both countries are, in essence, in         
      financial conservatorship.                                              
                                                                              
      Europe: The New Plan                                                    
      (click here to enlarge image)                                           
                                                                              
      That is not just a problem for the post-2013 world, however. Because    
      investors now know the European Union intends to stick them with at     
      least part of the bill, they are going to demand higher returns as      
      details of the default plan are made known, both on any new debt and    
      on any pre-existing debt that comes up for refinancing. This means      
      that states that just squeaked by in 2010 must run a more difficult     
      gauntlet in 2011 * particularly if they depend heavily on foreign       
      investors for funding their budget deficits. All will face higher       
      financing and refinancing costs as investors react to the coming        
      European disclosures on just how much the private sector will be        
      expected to contribute.                                                 
                                                                              
      Leaving out the two states that have already received bailouts (Greece  
      and Ireland), the four eurozone states STRATFOR figures face the most   
      trouble * Portugal, Belgium, Spain and Austria, in that order * plan    
      to raise or refinance a quarter trillion euros in 2011 alone. Italy     
      and France, two heavyweights not that far from the danger zone, plan    
      to raise another half-trillion euros between them. If the past is any   
      guide, the weaker members of this quartet could face financing costs    
      of double what they*ve faced as recently as early 2008. For some of     
      these states, such higher costs could be enough to push them into the   
      bailout bin even if there is no additional investor skittishness.       
                                                                              
      The existing bailout mechanism probably can handle the first four       
      states (just barely, and assuming it works as advertised), but beyond   
      that, the rest of the eurozone will have to come up with a              
      multitrillion-euro fund in an environment in which private investors    
      are likely to balk. Undoubtedly, the euro needs a new mechanism to      
      survive. But by coming up with one that scares those who make           
      government deficit-spending possible, the Europeans have all but        
      guaranteed that Europe*s financial crisis will get much worse before    
      it begins to improve.                                                   
                                                                              
      But let*s assume for a moment that this all works out, that the euro    
      survives to the day that the new mechanism will be in place to support  
      it. Consider what such a 2013 eurozone would look like if the rough     
      design agreed to Dec. 16 becomes a reality. All of the states flirting  
      with bailouts as 2010 draws to a close expect to have even higher debt  
      loads two years from now. Hence, investors will have imposed punishing  
      financing costs on all of them. Alone among the major eurozone          
      countries not facing such costs will be Germany, the country that       
      wrote the bailout rules and is indirectly responsible for managing the  
      bailouts enacted to this point. Berlin will command the purse strings   
      and the financial rules, yet be unfettered by those rules or the        
      higher financing costs that go with them. Such control isn*t quite a    
      political union, but so long as the rest of the eurozone is willing to  
      trade financial sovereignty for the benefits of the euro, it is         
      certainly the next best thing.                                          
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 21, 2010 5:50:32 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: The Implications of Iranian Assertiveness Toward Pakistan

      [IMG]                                                                   
                                                                              
      Tuesday, December 21, 2010     [IMG] STRATFOR.COM [IMG] Diary Archives  
                                                                              
            The Implications of Iranian Assertiveness Toward Pakistan         
                                                                              
      The Middle East and South Asia have no shortage of conflicts and on     
      any given day there are developments on multiple issues. Monday,        
      however, was different: Another fault line appeared to emerge. Iranian  
      leaders used some very stern language in demanding that Pakistan act    
      against the Sunni Baluchi Islamist militant group Jundallah, which      
      recently staged suicide attacks against Shiite religious gatherings in  
      the Iranian port city of Chahbahar.                                     
                                                                              
      The Islamic republic*s senior-most military leader, Chief of the Joint  
      Staff Command of Iran*s Armed Forces Maj. Gen. Hassan Firouzabadi,      
      threatened that Tehran would take unilateral action if Islamabad        
      failed to prevent cross-border terrorism. Separately, Iranian           
      President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called his Pakistani counterpart, Asif    
      Ali Zardari, and demanded that Pakistani security forces apprehend      
      *known terrorists* and hand them over to Iranian authorities. This is   
      not the first time that Jundallah has become a source of tension        
      between the two neighbors. However, this time, the Iranian response     
      was different: The apex leadership of Iran threatened to take matters   
      into its own hands.                                                     
                                                                              
      It*s even more interesting that the latest Jundallah attack was not     
      that significant, especially compared to the attack from a little more  
      a year ago when as many as half a dozen senior generals from the        
      ground forces of Iran*s elite military force, the Islamic               
      Revolutionary Guards Corps, were killed in a Jundallah attack in the    
      border town of Pishin. At the time, however, Iran was much more mild    
      in terms of pressing Pakistan to take action against Jundallah. Over    
      the years, there has also been significant cooperation between Tehran   
      and Islamabad leading to arrests of the group*s leaders and main        
      operatives, including its founders.                                     
                                                                              
      *Tehran is likely concerned about how the deteriorating security        
      situation in Pakistan will impact its own security and sees a           
      situation in which it can enhance its influence in its southeastern     
      neighbor.*                                                              
                                                                              
      Why is Iran now escalating matters with Pakistan? The answer likely     
      has to do with the Iranian government feeling confident in other        
      foreign policy areas. It has been successful in having a                
      Shiite-dominated government of its preference installed in Iraq. Also,  
      for the first time, it appears to be negotiating from a position of     
      relative strength on the nuclear issue.                                 
                                                                              
      Iran is also a major regional stakeholder in Afghanistan and a          
      competitor of Pakistan there. It is therefore likely that Iran is now   
      flexing its muscles on its eastern flank to showcase its regional       
      rise. The Iranians have also been watching the fairly rapid             
      destabilization that has taken place in Pakistan in recent years and    
      sense both a threat and an opportunity. Tehran is likely concerned      
      about how the deteriorating security situation in Pakistan will impact  
      its own security and sees a situation in which it can enhance its       
      influence in its southeastern neighbor.                                 
                                                                              
      It is too early to say anything about how Iran will go about            
      projecting power across its frontier with Pakistan. However, there are  
      geopolitical implications from this new Iranian assertiveness. The      
      most serious one is obviously for Pakistan, which already has to deal   
      with U.S. forces engaging in cross-border action along the country*s    
      northwestern border with Afghanistan. Islamabad can*t afford pressures  
      from Tehran on the southwestern extension of that border (an area       
      where Pakistan is dealing with its own Baluchi rebellion). Any such     
      move on the part of Iran could encourage India to increase pressure on  
      its border with Pakistan. After all, India is a much bigger target of   
      Pakistani-based militants than Iran, but has thus far not been able to  
      get Pakistan to yield to its demands on cracking down on anti-India     
      militants. New Delhi would love to take advantage of this new dynamic   
      developing between Islamabad and Tehran.                                
                                                                              
      At the very least, Monday*s Iranian statements reinforce perceptions    
      that Pakistan is a state infested by Islamist militants of various      
      stripes that threaten pretty much every country that shares a border    
      with it (including Pakistan*s closest ally, China). Certainly,          
      Pakistan doesn*t want to see problems on a third border and will try    
      to address Iranian concerns. But the Pakistani situation is such that   
      it is unlikely that Islamabad will be able to placate Tehran.           
                                                                              
      In terms of ramifications, Monday*s developments are actually not       
      limited to only those countries that have a border with Pakistan.       
      Iranian demands on Pakistan have likely set off alarm bells in Saudi    
      Arabia, which is already terrified of Iran*s rise in the Persian Gulf   
      region and the Levant. Pakistan constitutes a major Saudi sphere of     
      influence and Riyadh is not about to let Tehran play in the South Asia  
      country. Pakistan has been a Saudi-Iranian proxy battleground since     
      the 1980s and the latest Iranian statements could intensify the         
      Sunni-Shiite sectarian conflict in the country.                         
                                                                              
      Increased sectarian conflict in Pakistan will only exacerbate the       
      jihadist insurgency in the country, thereby further eroding internal    
      stability. Such a situation is extremely problematic for the United     
      States, which is already trying to contain a rising Iran and has a      
      complex love-hate relationship with Pakistan. There is also the         
      problem that the success of America*s Afghan strategy is contingent     
      upon Washington establishing a balance of power between Iran and        
      Pakistan in Afghanistan.                                                
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
      Not For Publication                                                     

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 21, 2010 8:17:30 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: A Pakistani Response to the U.S. Annual Review

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     A Pakistani Response to the U.S. Annual Review                           
                                                                              
      December 21, 2010 | 1310 GMT                                            
      A Pakistani Response to the U.S. Annual Review                          
      AAMIR QURESHI/AFP/Getty Images                                          
      Pakistani soldiers patrol near the Afghan border                        
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      The recently released overview of the Afghanistan and Pakistan Annual   
      Review found Pakistan essential to U.S. success in Afghanistan. Highly  
      placed Pakistani officials took issue with the criticism of Pakistan    
      found in the report, and instead put the blame for U.S. failures in     
      Afghanistan on Washington itself.                                       
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      The overview of the Afghanistan and Pakistan Annual Review ordered by   
      U.S. President Barack Obama and released early Dec. 16 is, for obvious  
      reasons, of great interest to Islamabad. The review reiterated that     
      the success of the U.S. strategy for Afghanistan is dependent upon      
      Islamabad taking action against Afghan Taliban forces based on          
      Pakistani soil.                                                         
                                                                              
      Unsurprisingly, many in Pakistan took issue with criticism of Pakistan  
      found in the report.                                                    
                                                                              
      Alongside the review, the three most senior officials in the U.S.       
      government, President Barack Obama, Secretary of State Hillary          
      Clinton, and Defense Secretary Roberts Gates, each issued separate      
      statements pressing Pakistan for cooperation on ending the militant     
      safe-havens in the country. Meanwhile, U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff       
      Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen and commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan   
      Gen. David Petraeus were both in Pakistan last week on separate visits  
      to discuss the matter. Today, the head of U.S. Transportation Command,  
      Gen. Duncan McNabb, met with Pakistan*s army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Kayani  
      to discuss the issue of the safety of supply routes, which Islamabad    
      recently shut down for ten days in retaliation for a Sept. 30 NATO      
      helicopter attack in Kurram agency of the Federally Administered        
      Tribal Areas (FATA) that killed three Pakistani paramilitary soldiers.  
                                                                              
      Elsewhere, there appears to be a struggle of sorts going on between     
      U.S. and Pakistani intelligence agencies. The CIA station chief in      
      Islamabad was forced to leave the country after he was named in a       
      class-action lawsuit brought about by relatives of civilians killed     
      during one of the many UAV strikes that have taken place in recent      
      years in the Pakistani tribal badlands. This development follows        
      shortly after the head of Pakistan*s foreign intelligence service, the  
      Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence, Lt. Gen. Ahmed Shuja        
      Pasha, was accused of being involved in the 2008 attacks in Mumbai in   
      a civil lawsuit brought about by family members of the rabbi killed     
      alongside his wife by Pakistani-based Islamist militants.               
                                                                              
      In the light of these growing tensions between the two allies, it is    
      expected that Pakistan would respond to U.S. pressure. Senior and       
      well-placed sources in Islamabad tell STRATFOR that they have huge      
      disagreements with the conclusions of the strategy review report,       
      which the Pakistanis see more as an American effort to conceal its      
      failures in Afghanistan. (STRATFOR does not take these claims at face   
      value, as Pakistan has its own geopolitical reasons for supporting the  
      Afghan Taliban.)                                                        
                                                                              
      According to these sources, Western military strategy in Afghanistan    
      has failed because of an inadequate political strategy. The failure to  
      give adequate representation to the Pashtuns, who make up the majority  
      of the Taliban, in the Afghan government has been as serious a problem  
      as the insurgents* refusal to engage in pitched battles (where Western  
      forces would enjoy an enormous advantage).                              
                                                                              
      The sources also deny that Pakistan provides sanctuary for al Qaeda     
      and the Taliban while acknowledging the groups have some presence on    
      the border with Afghanistan. They point out the large number of         
      Pakistan military forces deployed along the border, around 140,000, is  
      not consistent with accusations of militant sanctuary. Moreover, they   
      argue that Pakistan has engaged in major military operations in six     
      out of seven Pakistani tribal subdivisions adjoining Afghanistan, with  
      significant deployments even in North Waziristan where operations in    
      areas like Shawal and Razmak are in process. The sources say that       
      North Waziristan is very much part of the country*s national            
      counterinsurgency strategy but Pakistan cannot, however, mount a        
      scorched-earth policy against its own population in the area*s major    
      cities like Mir Ali and Miranshah.                                      
                                                                              
      They also point to the 900 Pakistani military posts covering most       
      natural border crossings. Afghanistan, by contrast, has failed to stop  
      the cross-border movement of militants, with a mere 150 posts on the    
      Afghan side of the border that destabilizes adjoining areas in          
      Pakistan. Militants enjoy a haven even in the border regions of         
      Afghanistan under International Security Assistance Force control. For  
      example, after the Pakistan military*s operations in the FATA and the   
      greater Swat region in 2009, senior Pakistani Taliban rebel leaders     
      Maulvi Faqir, Qari Ziaur Rehman, Abdul Wali and Maulana Fazlullah were  
      able to take shelter in Afghanistan*s Kunar province. The sources       
      conclude that these militants are receiving money for arms in the form  
      of payoffs from drug dealers who operate in areas that should be        
      secure given the presence and operations of Western forces.             
                                                                              
      The sources questioned why those militants who do succeed in sneaking   
      into the Afghan side and need to travel more than 60 kilometers (about  
      37 miles) inside Afghanistan to reach their targets can cover the       
      distance despite satellite-based surveillance. The sources claimed      
      that this is evidence that ISAF forces do not have much control on the  
      Afghan side and that Pakistan therefore should not be singled out as    
      the factor behind the problems faced by coalition forces in             
      Afghanistan.                                                            
                                                                              
      Essentially, the sources are trying to argue that Washington is trying  
      to hide its own failures with the report. This view from Islamabad *    
      at a time when the Americans need greater Pakistani cooperation * is    
      an indication that U.S.-Pakistani dealings on Afghanistan could likely  
      be plagued by significant problems in 2011, which will be a litmus      
      test to gauge the effectiveness of the American strategy for the        
      Afghan war.                                                             
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
      Not For Publication                                                     
      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 21, 2010 11:31:35 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: An Iraqi Government Under Construction

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     An Iraqi Government Under Construction                                   
                                                                              
      December 21, 2010 | 1643 GMT                                            
      An Iraqi Government Takes Shape                                         
      -/AFP/Getty Images                                                      
      Iraqi Parliament Speaker Osama al-Nujaifi (L) and Prime Minister Nouri  
      al-Maliki in Baghdad on Dec. 20                                         
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has been reappointed for a second  
      term, and his preliminary choices for Cabinet members were approved by  
      the Iraqi Parliament. While an important step, some of the key          
      ministries have yet to be filled. Even though the three main blocs in   
      the country * the Kurds, the Shiite-dominated National Alliance and     
      the Sunni-backed al-Iraqiya List * have reached an agreement in         
      principle on a new government, the role of the proposed National        
      Council for Strategic Policies, which aims to give Sunnis a greater     
      say in state affairs, could become a battleground both on how the       
      country divides its power among Iraqi ethno-sectarian groups and the    
      country*s role in the region.                                           
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      The Iraqi Parliament on Dec. 21 approved a second term for Prime        
      Minister Nouri al-Maliki and gave its endorsement to his preliminary    
      Cabinet lineup.                                                         
                                                                              
      Baghdad has been without a government since the March 7 parliamentary   
      elections, and while al-Maliki securing a second term is an important   
      step, the work of forming a new government is not yet complete. A       
      number of key security portfolios * interior, defense and national      
      security * have not been filled, and until permanent ministers are      
      appointed to the three, the premier himself will run them. Nearly a     
      third of the Cabinet members are only interim appointees, and           
      jockeying to fill the positions permanently will continue for some      
      time.                                                                   
                                                                              
      Thus far, 29 Cabinet members have been approved for the 42 open         
      positions. Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, representing the Kurdish    
      bloc, retained his post. The Kurds have also reportedly received        
      assurances from al-Maliki on their demands to settle territorial        
      disputes in the north, the conflict over control of energy resources    
      and other matters related to consolidating Kurdish autonomy in the      
      north. These promises to the Kurds could create headaches for           
      al-Maliki later on, as stronger Kurdish authority in the north will     
      come at the expense of the Sunnis in the contested areas.               
                                                                              
      However, the Sunnis were also able to gain a more significant share of  
      the Cabinet. The Shia gave up the finance ministry to the Sunni-backed  
      al-Iraqiya List, with former Deputy Prime Minister Rafi al-Issawi       
      assuming the post. And Saleh al-Mutlaq, a key Sunni leader who until    
      recently was barred from politics over alleged Baathist ties, has       
      assumed the post of deputy prime minister.                              
                                                                              
      The Shia retained the oil ministry, with Abdul Karim al-Luaibi          
      stepping into the post, and further enhanced their control over the     
      energy sector, with outgoing Oil Minister Hussein Shahristani to head   
      the newly created deputy prime ministry for energy affairs. Al-Maliki   
      could not reach an understanding with Shiite Islamist leader Muqtada    
      al-Sadr on which specific lawmakers from the Sadrite political party,   
      al-Ahrar, would take up the posts allocated to the movement. The        
      Sadrites are the single largest individual Shia bloc, controlling 40    
      of the 159 parliamentary seats held by the National Alliance, and       
      their failure to reach an agreement with al-Maliki on a role in         
      government indicates that intra-Shia issues remain despite the merger   
      that created the super-Shiite bloc.                                     
                                                                              
      The fact that al-Iraqiya List head Iyad Allawi issued a statement of    
      support for the new government indicates the three ethno-sectarian      
      groups have reached an agreement in principle on dividing the           
      government in a manner that will give the Sunnis a significant stake    
      in a state that has been dominated by the Shia and the Kurds since the  
      U.S. invasion in 2003. But because simply giving the Sunnis their       
      allotted share of ministries would not translate into much power (the   
      most important ministries, other than the finance ministry, have been   
      promised to Shiite and Kurdish parties so far), a new body aimed at     
      easing Sunni concerns is being formed called the National Council for   
      Strategic Policies (NCSP).                                              
                                                                              
      Allawi himself will head the NCSP, and its size, composition, scope     
      and powers relative to the rest of the government have yet to be        
      agreed upon. As the body has not yet even been formed yet, it will be   
      critical to watch what authority, or lack thereof, it is given over     
      state affairs. The eventual shape and influence of the NCSP may be an   
      indicator of the direction of the ethno-sectarian conflict within the   
      country and the wider U.S.-Iranian struggle over influence in the       
      region.                                                                 
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
      Not For Publication                                                     
      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 21, 2010 4:20:31 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: A Week in the War: Afghanistan, Dec. 15-21, 2010

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     A Week in the War: Afghanistan, Dec. 15-21, 2010                         
                                                                              
      December 21, 2010 | 2205 GMT                                            
      A Week in the War: Afghanistan, Dec. 8-14, 2010                         
      STRATFOR                                                                
      STRATFOR BOOK                                                           
        * Afghanistan at the Crossroads: Insights on the Conflict             
      Related Special Topic Page                                              
        * The War in Afghanistan                                              
                                                                              
       U.S. Afghan Strategy Review                                            
                                                                              
      On Dec. 16, the United States released its long-anticipated             
      Afghanistan and Pakistan Annual Review, which * as expected * provided  
      grounds for continuing the counterinsurgency-focused strategy. The      
      review called for the handover of security to Afghans by 2014           
      (consistent with President Barack Obama*s announcement at the NATO      
      summit in Lisbon last month), repeated U.S. resolve to *disrupt,        
      dismantle and defeat* al Qaeda and declared that progress has been      
      made toward achieving these goals.                                      
                                                                              
      The review conceded that al Qaeda continues to conduct operations       
      against the United States and its allies and *inspire regional          
      affiliates* to do the same but noted the progress Pakistan has made in  
      operations along the Afghan-Pakistani border. The review also           
      acknowledged that the U.S. strategy needs to be adjusted to deny        
      *extremist safe-havens* in Pakistan and that greater cooperation from   
      Pakistan is necessary to achieve this end. Details of a new U.S.        
      National Intelligence Estimate on Afghanistan and Pakistan indicate     
      that the intelligence community takes a more negative view of           
      Pakistan*s intransigence and inability to cooperate. The annual         
      strategy review on Afghanistan and Pakistan mentioned that President    
      Obama and Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari will exchange visits in  
      the coming year as a way to strengthen cooperation between the two      
      countries.                                                              
                                                                              
      The past year has been a rocky one for the U.S.-Pakistani               
      relationship. Both countries have simultaneously criticized and         
      praised each other for their counterterrorism efforts along the         
      Afghan-Pakistani border. Pakistan was set back by devastating floods    
      in late summer that temporarily halted military advances intended to    
      deny militants the safe-havens mentioned in the review. Then, a series  
      of cross-border incidents led the Pakistani government to close the     
      border crossing at Torkham, which temporarily suspended the supply      
      line of critical materiel needed by troops in Afghanistan. While the    
      closing did not appear to impact operations of the International        
      Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, it did emphasize the   
      important role that Pakistan must play if the Taliban are to be split   
      from al Qaeda and if al Qaeda is to be defeated in the border area.     
                                                                              
       Kabul and Kunduz Bombings                                              
                                                                              
      On the morning of Dec. 19, the Taliban carried out seemingly            
      coordinated attacks against Afghan army targets in Kunduz and Kabul.    
      At approximately 6:30 a.m. local time, a suicide bomber detonated a     
      device he was carrying at the entrance to an Afghan National Army       
      recruiting center in Kunduz. After the explosion, three more gunmen     
      dressed in Afghan army uniforms began firing on the compound.           
      Responding security forces eventually neutralized two of the gunmen,    
      but the third gained entry into the compound and caused fighting to go  
      on for most of the day. He finally detonated his suicide vest, ending   
      the assault. The Kunduz deputy police chief said that the attackers     
      killed four Afghan soldiers and four police constables.                 
                                                                              
      A Week in the War: Afghanistan, Dec. 15-21, 2010                        
      (click here to enlarge image)                                           
                                                                              
      At about the same time that morning, two suicide bombers attacked a     
      bus carrying Afghan army officers on the outskirts of Kabul. The two    
      assailants reportedly first opened fire on the bus as it was traveling  
      down Jalalabad Road toward the center of the city. One of the           
      assailants was able to detonate his suicide vest near the bus, while    
      the second man was shot by soldiers before he could detonate his vest.  
      The attack on the bus killed five Afghan officers and wounded nine      
      others. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid claimed responsibility     
      for both the attacks later in the day via telephone.                    
                                                                              
      These were the first major attacks in Kunduz since July and in Kabul    
      since May. Both cities are prone to periodic Taliban raids, which are   
      thought to be orchestrated mainly by the Haqqani faction of Taliban     
      fighters that operates in northeastern Afghanistan. However, neither    
      of the two Dec. 19 attacks measures up to past Taliban assaults in the  
      two cities. In July, six suicide bombers attacked a USAID office in     
      Kunduz, killing four security personnel, including an American soldier  
      and a British soldier. In Kabul, a suicide bomber detonated a           
      vehicle-borne improvised explosive device targeting an ISAF convoy in   
      May, killing five U.S. soldiers and one Canadian soldier. Twelve other  
      Afghans were also killed in the blast.                                  
                                                                              
      The two attacks that we saw on Dec. 19, coming so soon after President  
      Obama affirmed the U.S. commitment to its year-old strategy in          
      Afghanistan, had some symbolic value, but they did not demonstrate any  
      new capability. Some level of violence is to be expected from time to   
      time in relatively secure areas like Kunduz and Kabul. The question is  
      the impact of occasional violence. The Afghan government can function   
      and the U.S.-led counterinsurgency can continue with a low level of     
      insurgent violence in key areas, but if the violence cannot be          
      contained and managed, and if it begins to negatively impact U.N.,      
      USAID and other international development efforts that are critical in  
      reshaping the economic and political dynamics in the country, then the  
      Taliban can significantly undermine the American strategy.              
                                                                              
      It is clear that Taliban activity is spreading northward as U.S.-led    
      efforts in the southwest intensify. As we have long argued, this is in  
      keeping with classic guerrilla strategy. But if the ISAF can dictate    
      terms in the southwest, in the Taliban*s home territory, until it       
      hands over power to the Afghans as planned in 2014, the movement could  
      be seriously weakened. So the Taliban must do two things: maintain      
      pressure on foreign troops to withdraw by inflicting casualties         
      wherever and whenever possible and do something dramatic to impact      
      ISAF operations in the southwest. What was achieved in Kunduz and       
      Kabul did neither. We will watch Taliban activity closely throughout    
      the winter and after the spring thaw to understand how the movement     
      will try to hasten a U.S. withdrawal and reclaim lost territory.        
                                                                              
       Afghan Security Adviser Stepping Down                                  
                                                                              
      The Afghan news outlet Hasht-e-Sobh reported Dec. 19 that Afghan        
      National Security Adviser Rangin Dadfar Spanta has told President       
      Hamid Karzai that he intends to resign his position. This follows       
      reports that President Karzai wanted to remove Spanta in early          
      November. Spanta is one of the last members of Karzai*s inner circle    
      who is anti-Pakistan, anti-Taliban and pro-Iran. As Karzai navigates    
      the negotiation process with the Taliban, Spanta*s pending departure    
      could open the way for a more pro-Pakistan, pro-Taliban replacement.    
      The move could also reflect a larger shift by the Karzai                
      administration toward cooperating with Pakistan and reconciling with    
      the Taliban.                                                            
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 21, 2010 5:38:14 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Germany's Moldova Foray

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Germany's Moldova Foray                                                  
                                                                              
      December 21, 2010 | 2300 GMT                                            
      Germany's Moldova Foray Signals Russia                                  
      MICHAEL GOTTSCHALK/AFP/Getty Images                                     
      Moldovan Prime Minister Vladimir Filat (R) visits German Chancellor     
      Angela Merkel in Berlin in May                                          
                                                                              
      German Minister of State in the Foreign Ministry Werner Hoyer paid a    
      one-day visit to Moldova on Dec. 21, meeting with Moldovan Minister of  
      Foreign Affairs and European Integration Iurie Leanca.                  
                                                                              
      The visit by Hoyer * an important figure in German government and a     
      mainstay for the last 20 years in foreign affairs of center-right       
      German governments * indicates Germany has real interests in Moldova.   
      It also suggests Berlin is not satisfied leaving the formation of a     
      pro-European government to just Poland and Sweden, whose foreign        
      ministers * Radislaw Sikorski and Carl Bildt, respectively * visited    
      Moldova on Dec. 8. Hoyer*s visit is also meant to signal Russia that    
      Germany has not forgotten about Moldova, and that Berlin can throw its  
      weight around in the strategic country, too.                            
                                                                              
      Hoyer*s trip comes as Moldova continues the process of forming a        
      ruling coalition following contentious parliamentary elections in       
      November. The country remains split between the pro-Russian Communist   
      Party and an array of pro-Western, or opportunistic, parties that       
      formerly comprised the ruling Alliance for European Integration (AEI).  
      While the coalition wrangling continues, Russia has thrown its weight   
      behind a Communist/Democratic Party coalition, which would join former  
      President Vladimir Voronin with Marian Lupu, both of whom have shown    
      pro-Russian leanings. The Europeans, on the other hand, favor           
      excluding the Communists and retaining a pro-European coalition, a      
      message delivered during Sikorski and Bildt*s visit.                    
                                                                              
      Germany's Moldova Foray                                                 
                                                                              
      But Poland and Sweden, although leaders of the thus-far underwhelming   
      European Union Eastern Partnership policy, are not exactly European     
      geopolitical heavyweights. They cannot alone offer the financial and    
      political incentives for Moldova to align with the EU.                  
                                                                              
      When deciding whether to align with Russia or Europe, Moldovan          
      politicians want to know that Europe is committed to a pro-European     
      Moldova at the highest echelon of power, which means Berlin. For        
      Berlin to dispatch a statesman of Hoyer*s heft thus can be taken as a   
      sign that Germany is getting involved in Moldova more directly and has  
      decided to proactively support the creation of a pro-European           
      coalition in Chisinau.                                                  
                                                                              
      This is not Berlin*s first foray into the small, but strategic,         
      country. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has listed the breakaway       
      republic of Transdniestria as a key test to Russia*s cooperation with   
      Europe under the guise of a possible European Security Treaty. The      
      Moldova foray, however, represents Germany*s most direct move in the    
      region.                                                                 
                                                                              
      Actively supporting a pro-European government in Moldova as opposed to  
      leaving the matter to Poland and Sweden could signal Russia that        
      Germany has not forgotten about the contested former Soviet peripheral  
      region. While Berlin*s moves in this regard thus far have been subtle,  
      Germany could choose to become more active in the region * and the      
      Moldovan arena will be one of the most significant tests of the         
      ongoing German-Russian dynamic in the upcoming year.                    
                                                                              
      The ultimate makeup of the Moldovan government is no longer just        
      significant in terms of who has more influence in Chisinau, Russia or   
      the Europeans, but as very concrete evidence of who has more power to   
      influence the affairs of states on the borderlands of Europe and        
      Russia in broader terms.                                                
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 21, 2010 6:54:27 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Somali Jihadist Groups Merge

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Somali Jihadist Groups Merge                                             
                                                                              
      December 22, 2010 | 0045 GMT                                            
      Somali Jihadist Groups Merge                                            
      ABDURASHID ABDULLE ABIKAR/AFP/Getty Images                              
      Hizbul Islam forces walk next to rubble while on patrol in a sector of  
      Mogadishu on Nov. 1                                                     
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      Somali jihadist group al Shabaab has absorbed rival group Hizbul Islam  
      after weeks of clashes in southwest Somalia. While one leading faction  
      of al Shabaab initially criticized the fighting, the disparate          
      elements of the group remained united in the end, indicating that       
      while jockeying among al Shabaab*s power players will continue, they    
      also understand they need one another to maximize their strength.       
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      A day after Somali Islamist militia Hizbul Islam announced that it was  
      joining rival group al Shabaab *politically and militarily,* STRATFOR   
      sources reported Dec. 21 that Hizbul Islam*s top leadership would be    
      given merely ceremonial positions in the newly enlarged jihadist        
      group. This announcement, which signifies the de facto end of the core  
      of Hizbul Islam, comes just months after reports that it had been       
      engaged in talks to form a new militant group with a would-be           
      breakaway faction of al Shabaab. Instead, al Shabaab*s overall leader,  
      Amhad Abdi Godane, aka Abu Zubayr, was able to consolidate his          
      position as the head of the group. Al Shabaab*s few thousand fighters,  
      who are by no means omnipresent in the core territory in which the      
      group operates, now face no significant armed opposition from the       
      Kenyan border to the outskirts of Mogadishu.                            
                                                                              
      The events of the past three weeks may not have done anything to        
      change the fundamental balance of power in Somalia, but it has          
      temporarily dispelled talk that al Shabaab*s internal divisions have    
      the group on the verge of a breakdown. Both Abu Zubayr and al           
      Shabaab*s second most powerful man * Muktar Robow, aka Abu Mansur *     
      continue to have a greater interest in remaining united than in         
      separation.                                                             
                                                                              
       Hizbul Islam*s Defeat                                                  
                                                                              
      Hizbul Islam*s power reached its zenith in the spring of 2009 when it   
      teamed up with al Shabaab in a failed campaign against the Somali       
      capital. Since then, leader Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys has seen the      
      group*s fortunes decline in comparison to those of its erstwhile ally.  
      Aweys* militia began to genuinely disintegrate in October 2009 when al  
      Shabaab ejected Hizbul Islam from the lucrative port town of Kismayo,   
      after which several individual militias began to break away from the    
      umbrella group. Some declared independence from Aweys and the name      
      *Hizbul Islam,* while others joined al Shabaab, but the common effect   
      was a weakening of Hizbul Islam as a militant force. For al Shabaab,    
      this meant the removal of both a potential threat and a potential ally  
      in the fight against the Western-backed Transitional Federal            
      Government (TFG) and its armed guard, the African Union Mission in      
      Somalia (AMISOM) peacekeeping force, which control the most lucrative   
      areas of Mogadishu.                                                     
                                                                              
      [IMG]                                                                   
      (click here to enlarge image)                                           
                                                                              
      Aweys has been in Somalia for a long time, however, and he did not      
      simply fade away in 2010. There was talk in October 2010 of             
      discussions between Aweys and Abu Mansur, leader of al Shabaab*s        
      *nationalist* faction (meaning the faction uninterested in              
      transnational jihad, as opposed to the stronger faction led by Abu      
      Zubayr, which is more influenced by foreign fighters). The two          
      reportedly were discussing the possibility of forming a new group       
      called al Islamiya Resistance Force, which would have resulted in al    
      Shabaab splitting internally, but those talks eventually came to        
      nothing. As happened during previous discussions over the possibility   
      of merging with al Shabaab, Aweys did not want to make too many         
      concessions to militant leaders he viewed as decades his junior and     
      lacking in his nationalist credentials. In the end, however, al         
      Shabaab*s overwhelming strength forced Aweys* hand, which led to the    
      recent announcement that he fully supported the decision to merge with  
      his more powerful rivals.                                               
                                                                              
      The first reports of renewed clashes between Aweys* forces and al       
      Shabaab in the town of Burhakaba * located just southeast of al         
      Shabaab stronghold Baidoa in Somalia*s southwestern Bay region *        
      emerged Dec. 1. Al Shabaab attacked first, quickly taking Burhakaba     
      and was able to repel subsequent attempts by Hizbul Islam to take it    
      back. Within two weeks, Hizbul Islam had deserted neighboring           
      population centers in the Lower Shabelle region, most notably           
      Torotorow, while al Shabaab*s forces marched toward Afgoye, Hizbul      
      Islam*s main base of operations, located on the outskirts of            
      Mogadishu.                                                              
                                                                              
      Aweys and his top commanders vowed to defend Afgoye and their other     
      territories, including certain areas in Mogadishu*s Bakara Market, but  
      were unable to follow through. By Dec. 20, following a series of        
      meetings between members of each group*s leadership, Hizbul Islam had   
      agreed to join al Shabaab. Despite the public denial by Hizbul Islam*s  
      director of operations that any pressure had been exerted on the        
      group, al Shabaab had clearly delivered an ultimatum to Aweys and his   
      men: keep fighting (and likely die trying), or submit. STRATFOR         
      sources report that the new positions of leadership in al Shabaab       
      given to Aweys and his deputies are largely ceremonial, while Somali    
      media reports state that the group*s fighters have been sent for        
      retraining in al Shabaab*s method of combat operations.                 
                                                                              
       Divisions in Al Shabaab                                                
                                                                              
      However, not all of al Shabaab initially welcomed the clashes with      
      Hizbul Islam. Abu Mansur*s spokesman, Fuad Shongole, publicly           
      condemned the actions taken by Abu Zubayr*s men during a public speech  
      at a mosque in the Bakara Market less than a week before the merger.    
      In the speech, he said the fighting in Burhakaba was *not jihad* and    
      said in reference to Abu Zubayr, *a leader is he who addresses his      
      people and leads his people toward all good things, but fighting        
      everyone is not part of the solution.* It was reportedly the first      
      time Shongole had publicly criticized Abu Zubayr in such a manner.      
                                                                              
      But within days, Shongole and Abu Mansur were acting as al Shabaab*s    
      emissaries in a meeting with Aweys and his top deputies in the town of  
      Ceelasha Biyaha, just outside of Mogadishu. This was where the final    
      agreement was made for Hizbul Islam to accept the terms of the merger.  
      Al Shabaab took control of Hizbul Islam*s final territories that day.   
                                                                              
      The fact that, as STRATFOR sources have reported, Abu Mansur*s camp     
      backtracked in his criticism of Abu Zubayr*s fight with Hizbul Islam    
      indicates that al Shabaab*s internal rivalries * though very real *     
      are not at the point where they are at risk of triggering a fracture    
      within al Shabaab. Though the group*s various power brokers are in      
      constant competition over power, resources and the direction of the     
      group, they also understand they need one another to maximize their     
      strength. Abu Mansur*s main problem is finances; Abu Zubayr is          
      believed to have greater control over the money supply. Abu Zubayr, in  
      turn, has an interest in tapping into Abu Mansur*s manpower. After      
      all, even when allied with Hizbul Islam in May 2009, they were unable   
      to oust the TFG and AMISOM from Mogadishu. Since then, the              
      peacekeeping force has doubled in size, and it is reportedly on the     
      verge of expanding by another 4,000 troops in the coming months. Al     
      Shabaab*s recent Ramadan Offensive, conducted without Hizbul Islam*s    
      support, had even less success * and it was the fallout from this       
      event that shed the most light on the divisions between Abu Mansur and  
      Abu Zubayr, and which directly resulted in AMISOM increasing its zone   
      of control in Mogadishu.                                                
                                                                              
      Aweys* men do not represent the fighting force they once did, which is  
      why the merger is unlikely to represent a strategic threat to the       
      TFG*s and AMISOM*s position in the capital. But it is the fact that     
      Abu Mansur so quickly agreed to adopt a unified stance with Abu Zubayr  
      over the issue of absorbing Aweys* group that interests STRATFOR the    
      most. Al Shabaab is far from unified, but there are constraints that    
      make a true internal fracture unlikely to occur at this time.           
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 22, 2010 10:14:00 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Above the Tearline: Mexican Cartels

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Above the Tearline: Mexican Cartels                                      
                                                                              
      December 22, 2010 | 1533 GMT                                            
      Click on image below to watch video:                                    
      [IMG]                                                                   
                                                                              
      Vice President of Intelligence Fred Burton gives an overview of the     
      Mexican drug cartel activities in 2010 and what trends we are likely    
      to see in 2011.                                                         
                                                                              
      Editor*s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition       
      technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete         
      accuracy.                                                               
                                                                              
      Hi, I*m Fred Burton with STRATFOR. In this week*s Above the Tearline    
      we*re going to look at our 2010 cartel report with a forecast for       
      2011.                                                                   
                                                                              
      In our study we outlined three major trends that occurred 2010, in the  
      first being the Calderon government efforts to go to war with the       
      cartels was very effective in the elimination of many cartel            
      high-value targets this year, however it also led to an increase in     
      the body count from 6,000 to 11,000 in calendar year 2010.              
                                                                              
      The second interesting trend that we noted our study is the             
      introduction of the improvised explosive device in Mexico by the        
      cartels and fortunately these devices are very rudimentary and we       
      haven*t seen an actual vehicle-borne improvised explosive device.       
      However it*s a troubling trend that the cartels have moved into the     
      improvised explosive device in specific areas such as Juarez and        
      Ciudad Victoria. The learning curve to move into a sophisticated VBIED  
      or vehicle-borne improvised explosive device would take time and this   
      is one of the warning and indicators that we are on point looking for,  
      but we have not seen them move down that stage yet.                     
                                                                              
      The third trend is the Mexican government deployment of federal         
      police, or the federal police takeover of certain areas inside of       
      Mexico and that has been done primarily in an effort to quell the       
      violence to put in a vetted and confident police force that can be      
      managed at the federal level. Salary is also important when you*re      
      looking at the federal police. In essence they can be paid more than a  
      local cop that would be easily corruptible. One of the aspects of       
      having federal control would be a higher quality recruit or police      
      agent that you could bring into the midst. You also have to capability  
      of running polygraphs and a much more thorough background check and     
      have better command-and-control over that entity and in essence,        
      provide better service to the community that the federal officers are   
      deployed in. From a forecasting perspective in 2011 Calderon is at a    
      crossroads, he*s in a very difficult position. He either has to accept  
      U.S. intervention to help combat the cartels, or he has to stand back   
      some of his pressure that he has placed upon the cartels in an effort   
      to reduce the body count. At this point we don*t know which direction   
      he*s going to take, but it*s going to be very interesting to see which  
      road we do go down.                                                     
                                                                              
      The Above the Tearline aspects with the cartel study, in my             
      assessment, are two key issues. One, the detailed personality and link  
      analysis diagram we have of the various cartel players; their           
      hierarchy; the bosses, as well as those that were eliminated last       
      year. The second aspect is our map. You can look at the map and see     
      which cartel controls what geography inside of Mexico as well as which  
      cartel controls the plazas, the lucrative gateways into the United      
      States, as well as the spillover border violence into America.          
                                                                              
      Click for more videos                                                   
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 22, 2010 1:47:24 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: More Details on the Saudi-Syrian Initiative in Lebanon

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     More Details on the Saudi-Syrian Initiative in Lebanon                   
                                                                              
      December 22, 2010 | 1921 GMT                                            
      Saudi-Syrian Dealings on the Special Tribunal for Lebanon               
      BEHROUZ MEHRI/AFP/Getty Images                                          
      Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri in Tehran on Nov. 28             
                                                                              
      Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri on Dec. 22 denied a claim made   
      by pro-Syrian Lebanese newspaper Ad-Diyar that he would request that    
      the United Nations halt the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL)          
      investigating the 2005 assassination of his father, former Prime        
      Minister Rafik al-Hariri. Al-Hariri*s press office said the leaks were  
      disconnected from reality and reiterated the prime minister*s support   
      for the Saudi-Syrian initiative aimed at settling the STL affair and    
      stabilizing Lebanon.                                                    
                                                                              
      Related Link                                                            
        * Syria and Iran Come to a Temporary Understanding over Hezbollah     
                                                                              
      Syrian and Saudi officials have been busy dealing with the looming      
      consequences of the eventual STL indictments. While a broad agreement   
      aimed at neutralizing the STL issue appears to have been reached, some  
      indictments may still be issued. Lebanese Lt. Gen. Jamil al-Sayyid,     
      former head of the Lebanese general security apparatus, who was         
      released from prison in April 2009 with three other military officers,  
      could be one of those sacrificed. According to a Lebanese military      
      source, Hezbollah operative Abdulmajid Ghamloush * who mistakenly used  
      one of the eight mobile phones that enabled STL investigators to        
      directly link Hezbollah to the assassination * has been found dead in   
      Syria after earlier being subjected to a grueling interrogation by      
      Hezbollah. Ghamloush had been given asylum in Syria two years prior     
      and was living on the eastern slopes of the Anti-Lebanon Mountains      
      near the town of Zabadani in Rif Damascus. The source speculated that   
      he either committed suicide or was conveniently eliminated by Syrian    
      authorities with Hezbollah approval.                                    
                                                                              
      Al-Hariri is becoming more accepting of the fact that the STL will do   
      little to hold Hezbollah responsible for his father*s killing.          
      According to a Saudi diplomatic source involved in the Lebanon          
      proceedings, the Hezbollah-led opposition is demanding that al-Hariri   
      retire in exchange for the government*s choosing to not deal with the   
      issue of false witnesses (witnesses whom Hezbollah and Syria claim      
      delivered false testimony to the STL investigators). Given his          
      disillusionment with the STL, this remains quite possible.              
                                                                              
      Al-Hariri appears to be more interested in leaving politics for a       
      return to his business career until the balance of power in Lebanon     
      can shift against Hezbollah. In the meantime, he is bargaining to       
      ensure that his most trusted men in the Lebanese security forces will   
      not be purged should he resign. The Saudis and Syrians reportedly have  
      reaffirmed the position of Lt. Gen. Ashraf Rifi, commander of the       
      Lebanese internal security forces (ISF), and have agreed to formalize   
      the autonomy of the information section of the ISF led by Maj. Gen.     
      Wisam al-Hasan. These moves indicate that these two staunchly           
      pro-Hariri officers will keep their positions should al-Hariri exit     
      the political scene.                                                    
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 22, 2010 3:47:25 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 22, 2010

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 22, 2010                                     
                                                                              
      December 22, 2010 | 2108 GMT                                            
                                                                              
      The Naval Update Map shows an approximation of the current locations    
      of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups        
      (ARGs), the keys to U.S. dominance of the world*s oceans. A CSG is      
      centered on an aircraft carrier, which projects U.S. naval and air      
      power and supports a carrier air wing (CVW). The CSG includes           
      significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three    
      amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU)        
      embarked. An MEU is built around a heavily reinforced and mobile        
      battalion of Marines.                                                   
                                                                              
      U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 22, 2010                                    
      (click here to enlarge image)                                           
                                                                              
       Carrier Strike Groups                                                  
                                                                              
        * The USS Harry S. Truman CSG with CVW 3 embarked returned to Naval   
          Station Norfolk after a seven-month deployment in support of        
          maritime security operations and theater security cooperation       
          efforts in the U.S. 5th and 6th fleet areas of responsibility       
          (AORs).                                                             
        * The USS Nimitz has moved to its dry dock at the Puget Sound Naval   
          Shipyard and Intermediate Maintenance Facility to begin its         
          Docking Planned Incremental Availability.                           
        * The USS Carl Vinson with CVW 17 embarked is under way for a         
          three-week composite training unit exercise followed by a           
          scheduled deployment to the western Pacific Ocean.                  
        * The USS Abraham Lincoln CSG with CVW 2 embarked is on a scheduled   
          deployment in the 5th Fleet AOR conducting maritime security        
          operations and theater security cooperation efforts.                
        * The USS John C. Stennis recently completed sea trials during the    
          final phase of its six-month planned incremental availability in    
          the Puget Sound Naval Shipyard and Intermediate Maintenance         
          Facility.                                                           
                                                                              
       Amphibious Ready Groups/Marine Expeditionary Units                     
                                                                              
        * The USS Peleliu ARG with the 15th MEU embarked returned to its      
          home port after a seven-month deployment to the 7th and 5th fleet   
          AORs to conduct humanitarian relief in Pakistan and counterpiracy   
          operations off the Horn of Africa.                                  
        * The USS Kearsarge ARG with the 26th MEU embarked is on a port       
          visit to Salalah, Oman.                                             
        * The USS Boxer with the 13th MEU embarked completed its              
          certification exercise off the coast of Southern California.        
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 22, 2010 4:06:27 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: U.S. Senate Ratifies START Treaty

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     U.S. Senate Ratifies START Treaty                                        
                                                                              
      December 22, 2010 | 2145 GMT                                            
      START START START START START                                           
      Win McNamee/Getty Images                                                
      Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) (L) and Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN) speak with     
      reporters Dec. 21 in Washington                                         
                                                                              
      The U.S. Senate ratified the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty        
      (known as START) by a 71-26 vote Dec. 22. The agreement reduces the     
      deployed strategic warheads of each country to 1,550. The treaty has    
      received intense attention during the past week, as it was unclear if   
      the Senate could even get enough votes to discuss the issue * though    
      many Republicans in the U.S. government have blasted the agreement      
      since its arrangement between Russian President Dmitri Medvedev and     
      U.S. President Barack Obama in April.                                   
                                                                              
      The START Treaty has been a bellwether of relations between Moscow and  
      Washington. In the spring, it was a sign of warming sentiments between  
      the countries. Since then, Russia and the United States have struck a   
      slew of compromises on issues like sanctions against Iran and U.S.      
      investment in Russia*s modernization efforts. However, Moscow has       
      publicly stated over the past few months that if START was not signed   
      by the end of the year, it would consider relations between Russia and  
      the United States as cooling. Thus, Obama has been trying to pressure   
      those standing in the treaty*s way * mainly Republicans * to sign.      
                                                                              
      As Russia has watched the Senate debate the treaty, it has been most    
      concerned about the possible addition of amendments that would          
      increase U.S. inspections, lower the cap on nuclear weapons or even     
      add topics not really relevant to the treaty, like the U.S. moving      
      forward on ballistic missile defense. This last issue is the most       
      important to Russia, as it would most likely put U.S. defense on        
      Russia*s doorstep. On Dec. 21, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov   
      warned that any such amendment would be a deal-breaker, since the       
      treaty cannot be opened up to new negotiations.                         
                                                                              
      The treaty passed by the Senate does not have any of these non-binding  
      amendments, but it does have addendums regarding the Senate*s           
      concerns. The addendums have no bearing on the treaty itself, but the   
      question remains of how Russia will view the addendums. Since they are  
      not actual amendments to the treaty, Russia likely will sign START      
      within weeks, as the treaty has already been debated in the State       
      Duma. But the Russian Foreign Ministry has already announced that it    
      will have to take a fresh look at what the U.S. Senate actually         
      ratified.                                                               
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 23, 2010 6:03:21 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: U.N. Extends AMISOM Mandate in Somalia

      [IMG]                                                                   
                                                                              
      Thursday, December 23, 2010    [IMG] STRATFOR.COM [IMG] Diary Archives  
                                                                              
                      U.N. Extends AMISOM Mandate in Somalia                  
                                                                              
      The U.N. Security Council (UNSC) passed a unanimous resolution on       
      Wednesday to extend the mandate of the African Union Mission in         
      Somalia (AMISOM) peacekeeping force until Sept. 30, 2011, and           
      authorize a 50 percent increase in AMISOM*s overall force level. There  
      are about 8,000 troops in Somalia, all of which come from Uganda and    
      Burundi, and the new mandate will allow AMISOM to increase to 12,000.   
                                                                              
      The UNSC resolution did not say where the additional troops would come  
      from, though previous pledges by Uganda to provide them makes it        
      likely that the vast majority * if not all * will come from Kampala.    
      The U.N. resolution also failed to answer the problem of who will fund  
      the increase in AMISOM*s size, which explains the half-hearted          
      celebration from the Uganda*s U.N. ambassador.                          
                                                                              
      The Ugandan military provides the bulk of AMISOM*s forces, and is       
      primarily responsible for maintaining security in the Somali            
      Transitional Federal Government (TFG) stronghold of Mogadishu. The      
      Ugandan military is the number one reason that al Shabaab has not       
      ejected the TFG from Mogadishu and taken the capital city over in the   
      past year. But AMISOM is handicapped by its small force levels, its     
      largely static defensive posture and relatively low funding levels,     
      meaning its best hope is to successfully defend government enclaves     
      within Mogadishu. Currently, it can hold portions of the capital (the   
      latest estimates are about half the city), but it cannot expand         
      outward and take the fight to the jihadists in the Somali countryside.  
                                                                              
      *The 12,000 peacekeepers will permit AMISOM to expand security          
      positions throughout the Somali capital, making it difficult, if not    
      impossible, for al Shabaab to achieve any more gains.*                  
                                                                              
      Uganda has been pushing in earnest for an increase in AMISOM*s troop    
      levels since July, when its capital city of Kampala was struck by dual  
      suicide bomb attacks that killed at least 74. Al Shabaab carried out    
      the attack. It was al Shabaab*s first transnational attack, and the     
      group chose Uganda as its primary target for several reasons. First,    
      the Ugandan military is essentially synonymous with AMISOM, and by      
      extension, the West. Also, beyond the publicity that a transnational    
      attack would give al Shabaab (and that it would use to boost its        
      jihadist credentials), it was aimed at undermining the Ugandan          
      government and public support of AMISOM, thereby leading to a pullout   
      and eventual collapse of AMISOM.                                        
                                                                              
      Uganda was also the likely target this week during a grenade attack in  
      downtown Nairobi on a bus that was bound for Kampala. Ugandan           
      authorities have also recently warned about terrorist threats during    
      the Christmas holidays.                                                 
                                                                              
      The Somali jihadists selected Uganda as a target because Kampala*s      
      capability to carry out a serious reprisal on al Shabaab was and is     
      less imminent than other prominent al Shabaab threats, specifically     
      Ethiopia and Kenya. An attack on Addis Ababa would quickly lead to      
      Ethiopian military forces intervening in Somalia not only in Mogadishu  
      but to overrun al Shabaab camps in southern and central regions. An     
      attack on Nairobi would lead to the Kenyan government disrupting al     
      Shabaab*s use of the city as a key logistical hub. While the Ugandans   
      are AMISOM*s dominant contingent, this is not to downplay other         
      countries* involvements, notably the Ethiopians. Addis Ababa possesses  
      the region*s strongest military force, which maintained a robust        
      intervention in Somalia from 2006 to 2009, but since then has been      
      less directly involved, preferring to backstop the Ugandans to deny to  
      the use of anti-Ethiopian propaganda as a rallying call by al Shabaab   
      and other Somali nationalists. But the Ethiopians are still heavily     
      involved behind the scenes in Somalia, through their support of a       
      proxy militia in central Somalia, called Ahlu Sunnah Waljamaah, as      
      well as their influence over TFG politicians.                           
                                                                              
      Until the July bombings in Kampala, confronting al Shabaab had been a   
      challenge largely dealt with by the West (notably the United States)    
      and East Africans (with Ethiopia at the military forefront, and Kenya   
      engaged politically). The Kampala bombings created the possibility for  
      this to change. The event created an opportunity for a more             
      pan-African response that would take the lead in resolving this         
      inter-Africa security concern. But there was little likelihood that     
      others from outside East Africa * such as Nigeria, Rwanda or South      
      Africa * would materially support an intervention against the Somali    
      jihadists. African governments from other sub-regions of the continent  
      voiced lukewarm rhetorical support of AMISOM, but no material           
      commitments emerged, demonstrating they have no real interest in        
      involving themselves in what would be a deadly confrontation with al    
      Shabaab. These other African governments had no compelling reason, as   
      they faced no threat from the Somalis themselves, while at the same     
      time they had their own internal security or political concerns that    
      required them to safeguard scarce security resources closer to home.    
                                                                              
      The lack of a pan-African or broader, international response to al      
      Shabaab did not dissuade Uganda or the East Africans, and simply        
      confirmed that they would need to go it alone (or more specifically,    
      go it among the usual responders). The Museveni government in Kampala   
      didn*t drop its support of AMISOM after July 11, instead reaffirming    
      and expanding the number of peacekeepers deployed to Mogadishu. Now,    
      the Ugandans have pledged to again increase their force level in        
      Somalia, offering to provide the bulk of the 4,000 new peacekeepers     
      the UNSC just authorized, though wanting in return a stable and robust  
      financial commitment to underwrite the mission (underfunding of AMISOM  
      and general neglect of Somalia has been an issue the Museveni           
      government has long complained about). The United States will likely    
      mobilize a support base, including the European Union and individual    
      European donors, to financially underwrite the expanding AMISOM force.  
      It probably will not be the full amount or at a consistency the         
      Ugandans want (among other things, the Ugandans want to be paid at      
      U.N. peacekeeper levels while the United Nations has been paying them   
      at vastly less African Union levels), but it will be sufficient to      
      support 12,000 peacekeepers in Mogadishu.                               
                                                                              
      The UNSC authorization to boost the peacekeeper level has been          
      expected * STRATFOR forecast this on Nov. 5. The new forces are not     
      likely to deploy outside Mogadishu. The 12,000 peacekeepers will        
      permit AMISOM to expand their security positions throughout the Somali  
      capital, making it difficult, if not impossible, for al Shabaab to      
      achieve any more gains (and the jihadists will likely be slowly pushed  
      out of Mogadishu), and permit the TFG to begin to deliver               
      socio-economic gains amid the enhanced security environment. But as al  
      Shabaab has taken steps to ensure its factions are internally           
      consolidated, the jihadists will remain a viable threat in Somalia      
      regardless of the expanded AMISOM.                                      
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 23, 2010 8:04:30 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: India between China and Russia

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     India between China and Russia                                           
                                                                              
      December 23, 2010 | 1313 GMT                                            
      India between China and Russia                                          
      RAVEENDRAN/AFP/Getty Images                                             
      Russian President Dmitri Medvedev (L) shakes hands with Indian Prime    
      Minister Manmohan Singh during a meeting in New Delhi on Dec. 21        
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao*s trip to India and Pakistan led to   
      several billion dollars* worth of deals with both countries. On the     
      surface, the $16 billion in agreements signed by China and India seem   
      like signs of booming bilateral ties, but China*s increasing support    
      for Pakistan has deepened New Delhi*s suspicion of Beijing*s strategic  
      intentions for the region. However, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev   
      also recently visited India, indicating that New Delhi still has        
      options.                                                                
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao concluded a five-day trip to India and       
      Pakistan on Dec. 19. Now that the fanfare has died down it is time to   
      take stock of what exactly transpired. On the surface, Wen and his      
      hosts signed billions of dollars of deals of every kind, but on a       
      deeper level, Wen reinforced India*s impression that China*s support    
      for Pakistan is deepening to a degree commensurate with India*s         
      increasing suspicion of China*s strategic intentions in the region.     
                                                                              
      Though the press was rife with conflicting details, it appears Wen      
      agreed to $16 billion worth of deals while in India. This headline      
      figure, of course, will not be immediately actualized; it is simply     
      the estimated sum total of a series of deals regarding projects of      
      various types, at various stages of realization, and on various time    
      frames for completion. According to The Hindu and other Indian press    
      reports:                                                                
                                                                              
        * China Development Bank signed an agreement to provide $4.63         
          billion worth of financing to Reliance Power Ltd., including $1.1   
          billion for the Sasan Ultra Mega Power Project, and a $400 million  
          credit facility to ICICI Bank (formerly Industrial Credit and       
          Investment Corporation of India).                                   
        * China Development Bank also signed a financing agreement worth $2   
          billion with Reliance Communications.                               
        * Bank of China agreed to provide $1.2 billion worth of credit for    
          IDBI Bank (Industrial Development Bank of India).                   
        * Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) agreed to provide a  
          $1 billion credit facility for ICICI Bank.                          
        * Sepco and Shandong agreed to provide power equipment to the Adani   
          Group for $3.63 billion.                                            
        * Shandong and Tamil Nadu Power Corporation agreed to a purchase      
          contract of $800 million in equipment.                              
        * China Aluminum agreed to $330 million in exports of metal products  
          for Vedanta.                                                        
        * Dofang Electric agreed with Abhijeet Projects to a sale of power    
          equipment worth $2.5 billion.                                       
                                                                              
      The grand total of these deals is indeed around $16 billion, though     
      about $9 billion of that is in loans or other financial instruments.    
      Still the sum is larger than the nominal amounts agreed to when U.S.    
      President Barack Obama ($10 billion) and French President Nicolas       
      Sarkozy ($13 billion) visited India earlier this year on similar        
      trade-heavy tours. Furthermore, just before Wen*s trip, Chinese         
      telecommunications giant Huawei declared it would invest $2 billion in  
      creating a research and development site in Bangalore and a factory in  
      Chennai.                                                                
                                                                              
       China*s Goals for Pakistan                                             
                                                                              
      Reports from Pakistan also featured the signing of several mega-deals.  
      The Associated Press of Pakistan reported that the two sides forged     
      agreements worth $10 billion for public-private partnerships and $5     
      billion for private sector-only partnerships, including $6.5 billion    
      for wind and solar power projects. Some reports even claimed the        
      totals were $20 billion and $15 billion, but as previously mentioned a  
      good portion of these deals remain theoretical. More concretely,        
      Beijing gave $229 million to help Pakistan recover from devastating     
      flooding this summer, a $400 million loan without a specific target     
      (one of the reasons countries like Pakistan love China), and $35        
      million to start a cultural center. The agreements focused on natural   
      resource extraction, oceanography, space, electronics and heavy         
      industry. Financial integration also progressed, with ICBC set to open  
      a branch in Islamabad and Karachi, while gaining agreement from the     
      Pakistani side to have a currency swap arrangement, part of Beijing*s   
      effort to gradually acquaint foreign states with holding the Chinese    
      yuan, in anticipation of eventual internationalization of the           
      currency.                                                               
                                                                              
      But most interesting by far were reports that China would continue      
      helping Pakistan build infrastructure, including improving the          
      obstacle-prone Karakorum Highway that links Pakistan to China*s         
      restive Xinjiang region and helping to *operationalize* Pakistan*s      
      Gwadar port. The port was built by Chinese construction companies but   
      at present is still serviced by inadequate roads and no rail;           
      moreover, the Pakistanis have suggested that China could become the     
      operator after dissatisfaction over the current Singaporean operator.   
      Strategically, China*s goal is to have a pipeline and railroad linking  
      Gwadar, via the Karakorum route, to Kashgar in Xinjiang, with the       
      purpose of accessing the Indian Ocean by land and thus bypassing the    
      maritime bottlenecks of Southeast Asia. STRATFOR sources in Beijing     
      suggest that Chinese investments in Pakistani mineral extraction,       
      processing and distribution are more extensive than appears from these  
      prominent deals, and that Beijing continues to entrench itself deeper   
      into Pakistan*s production of precious metals and energy while          
      building extensive infrastructure with strategic value.                 
                                                                              
      These projects are precisely what have caused India to become even      
      more uneasy about China*s deepening assistance for Pakistan. India      
      became exceedingly alarmed earlier this year when it learned that       
      Chinese People*s Liberation Army engineers and troops were assisting    
      and guarding over construction on the Chinese side of the Karakorum     
      Highway, with some allegedly working on the Pakistani side. China and   
      Pakistan are old allies, yet India*s primary security threat emanates   
      from Pakistan, including state-condoned militancy. In contrast to       
      widespread criticism, Wen explicitly praised Pakistan for its           
      successes in fighting militancy. Thus, India sees China*s support for   
      Pakistan as crucial in enabling unstable Pakistan to continue           
      threatening India. New Delhi likely sees analogy in the way that        
      China*s unconditional support for North Korea has emboldened it to act  
      more aggressively toward South Korea and fears something similar        
      taking place in its neighborhood. From the Chinese point of view,       
      needless to say, these projects are legitimate in themselves, and the   
      fact that they aim at connecting China to the Indian Ocean does not     
      mean they threaten India.                                               
                                                                              
      Thus while Wen*s trip created buzz about deepening economic relations   
      between China and India * and no doubt a number of big-ticket business  
      deals were signed * the real story here is the further entrenching of   
      Chinese economic influence in Pakistan and India*s growing insecurity.  
      India*s insecurity is compounded by its frustration that its major      
      counterweight to China is supposed to be the United States, and yet     
      the U.S. dependence on Pakistan for assistance in combating the         
      Taliban and al Qaeda has prevented it from exerting excessive pressure  
      on Pakistan in the way that India would prefer. Similarly, Washington   
      and Beijing have a relationship separate from India. Though China       
      harbors anxieties over the budding Indo-American strategic              
      partnership, India has pointed to difficulties in this arrangement and  
      frustration over what it fears may be empty American promises.          
                                                                              
       A Russian Counterbalance                                               
                                                                              
      Thus, India is interested in cultivating other options. It is no        
      coincidence that after a year of top-level delegations from the United  
      States, France, Britain and China seeking to invest in Indian growth,   
      Russia, too, would pay a visit. Russian President Dmitri Medvedev       
      arrived Dec. 20 to discuss the full spectrum of Russo-Indian ties.      
      These two states cooperated nicely throughout the Cold War and have     
      little cause for insecurity about each other. However, Russian          
      attention waned after the Soviet collapse and subsequent focus on       
      rebuilding influence in former Soviet territories over the past 10      
      years. Moscow has delayed delivering on major arms sales to India,      
      dampening optimism over the agreement that Medvedev and Indian Prime    
      Minister Manmohan Singh signed Dec. 21 to jointly develop a             
      fifth-generation stealth fighter jet and build 250-300 of them by       
      2030, a deal theoretically worth around $30 billion. The Russians have  
      also moved slowly in implementing agreements on assistance in civil     
      nuclear cooperation, such as making operational the nuclear power       
      plant at Kudankulam (the first of two units is set to begin running in  
      2011) and setting a price to build two more proposed units.             
                                                                              
      But none of this means the relationship has turned cold. Medvedev*s     
      trip showed the countries not only striking their own set of major      
      deals in several sectors but also showing Moscow reaffirm its support   
      of India*s stance on a number of international issues. Medvedev*s       
      sharply worded statements calling for the capture and extradition of    
      international terrorists was received as moral support for India in     
      its squabbles with Pakistan, and he spoke approvingly of India joining  
      the Nuclear Supplier*s Group and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization  
      as a full member (rather than observer) and becoming a permanent        
      member in a reformed U.N. Security Council. These proposals do not sit  
      well with China, which would prefer not to dilute its power in these    
      organizations, especially for the sake of India gaining power in them.  
      Russia*s support for a broad-based regional solution in Afghanistan     
      also comes across as helpful from India*s point of view, lest the       
      United States, Afghanistan and Pakistan decide how the situation will   
      conclude without Indian input.                                          
                                                                              
      Though Russia has not yet lived up to some of its grander promises, it  
      potentially provides India with an option for counterbalancing China    
      without relying wholly on the United States. China cannot approve of    
      this, but it has found some common ground with Russia that it would     
      prefer to hold, making for an interesting dynamic between the three     
      and in the region.                                                      
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
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      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 23, 2010 10:03:28 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Parcel Bombs Target Foreign Embassies in Italy

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Parcel Bombs Target Foreign Embassies in Italy                           
                                                                              
      December 23, 2010 | 1403 GMT                                            
      Parcel Bombs Target Foreign Embassies in Italy                          
      FRANCO ORIGLIA/Getty Images                                             
      Italian Carabinieri special police outside the Swiss Embassy in Rome    
      on Dec. 23                                                              
                                                                              
      Explosive devices concealed in packages targeted the Swiss and Chilean  
      embassies in Rome on Dec. 23. Two people who opened the packages were   
      injured, but the injuries do not appear to be life threatening.         
      However, that two embassies were targeted nearly simultaneously         
      indicates a high likelihood that there are similar packages destined    
      for additional targets in Rome and possibly throughout Europe.          
                                                                              
      The first package detonated at the Swiss Embassy at approximately noon  
      local time. The explosion seriously injured the hands of the mail room  
      employee handling the package. The second package detonated at the      
      Chilean Embassy at approximately 2:30 p.m. local time, injuring the     
      mail room employee handling it; the extent of his injuries is unclear.  
                                                                              
      At this point, the two incidents closely resemble the series of         
      explosions and attempted attacks at foreign embassies in Athens in      
      early November that also resulted from explosive devices concealed in   
      packages and mailed to the embassies. Those attacks were most likely    
      carried out by Greek anarchists and militants who have long protested   
      against foreign influence in Greece.                                    
                                                                              
      Investigations are only beginning in Rome to identify the culprits      
      behind the latest attacks, and some authorities are already             
      speculating that eco-terrorists or anarchists could be responsible.     
      Due to the similarities between the Rome and Athens attacks, there is   
      a strong likelihood that the Rome perpetrators were local anarchists    
      waging a copycat campaign.                                              
                                                                              
      Italian anarchists have a long history of employing letter bombs and    
      other small improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in their campaigns.     
      They conducted an anti-EU letter bomb campaign in December 2003. More   
      recently, in March 2010, a letter bomb addressed to the Italian         
      interior minister caught fire and injured a postal worker in a Milan    
      suburb. Past attacks are believed to have been the work of the          
      Informal Anarchist Federation, an Italian anarchist group that has      
      been involved in several attacks using small IEDs and parcel bombs. In  
      December 2009, the group placed a small IED at Milan University and     
      sent a letter bomb to an immigrant center in northeastern Italy. Due    
      to this history, they are the most likely suspects behind the Dec. 23   
      attacks.                                                                
                                                                              
      Regardless of who is behind them, businesses and government offices in  
      Italy and throughout Europe will likely be increasing mail room         
      security measures. Now that Italian police are aware of the threat,     
      they can also be more proactive in scanning parcels currently in the    
      postal system for explosive devices in order to intercept them before   
      they make it to embassies or other targets in Rome or elsewhere in      
      Europe.                                                                 
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
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      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 24, 2010 9:22:24 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Chinese Microblogs and Government Spin

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Chinese Microblogs and Government Spin                                   
                                                                              
      December 24, 2010 | 1514 GMT                                            
      Chinese Microblogs and Government Spin                                  
      China Photos/Getty Images                                               
      Users on the Internet at a cafe in Chongqing                            
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      The party secretary and top administrator in Chongqing, China*s         
      largest municipality, has called for a campaign reflecting Mao          
      Zedong*s revolutionary period that includes the use of an official      
      *microblog.* This is part of an emerging trend in Chinese governance    
      of using social networking to reach the masses. While appeasing the     
      popular demand for access to new media, so the theory goes, the         
      government can make it seem as if the people have the freedom to use    
      it while tightly controlling the communications for Beijing*s           
      purposes.                                                               
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
      Related Links                                                           
        * China and its Double-edged Cyber-sword                              
        * A Report on China*s Internet Traffic *Hijacking*                    
        * Google*s Rocky Relationship With China                              
        * China: Pushing Ahead of the Cyberwarfare Pack                       
        * Iran: Twitter, Cyberwarfare and Opposition Movements                
                                                                              
      Chongqing*s sweeping *Red Culture* campaign * the promotion of          
      revolutionary images, songs and stories * reached a new level with the  
      recent launch of *Red Microblog* by the municipality*s propaganda       
      department. The microblog, sort of a Chinese version of Twitter, has a  
      dramatically growing user base even though the site is subject to       
      tight government censorship. For its part, Beijing is encouraging its   
      use as a platform for publicizing political affairs to create a         
      greater sense of government transparency.                               
                                                                              
      The Red Microblog was established under the apparent direction of Bo    
      Xilai, Chongqing party secretary and top administrator of the           
      country*s largest municipality. (In China, a municipality is a city     
      under the direct jurisdiction of the central government.) Bo, a         
      popular and unorthodox member of China*s fifth generation of leaders,   
      has called for a retrospective campaign reflecting Mao Zedong*s         
      revolutionary period as part of his bid for membership in the           
      Communist Party of China*s (CPC) Politburo Standing Committee in 2012.  
      The use of a microblog in the Red Culture campaign also follows an      
      emerging trend in the central government of using social networking in  
      the conduct of political affairs. The idea is to appease the growing    
      number of Chinese who are demanding access to such new media and make   
      it seem as if they have the freedom to use it while tightly             
      controlling it for government purposes.                                 
                                                                              
      China*s first microblogs were established in August 2009 through        
      Sina.com, following Beijing*s decision to block Twitter, Facebook and   
      other social networking sites for fear they would be used by            
      dissidents inside or outside China to foment social unrest leading up   
      to the 20th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square incident. Since then,   
      a number of domestic websites have established microblog services.      
      Unlike foreign-based networking sites like Twitter and Facebook,        
      microblogs in China operate under strict government censorship. Still,  
      they do provide the country*s Internet users with a new form of         
      communications and greatly expanded channels for accessing and          
      disseminating information in a faster and more comprehensive way. This  
      has enabled microblog servers to become a top choice for Internet       
      users in China, and the number of microblog registrants has soared      
      from just 8 million in 2009 to 75 million in 2010. The number is        
      expected to jump to 145 million in 2011.                                
                                                                              
      Microblogs offer Internet users, above all, a more personalized medium  
      for communications by making it easier for users to interact and        
      communicate information that is unavailable from official or            
      traditional media. As such, microblogs also provide a space where       
      political rumors and sensitive information can be quickly made          
      available and easily spread, a situation Beijing is chronically         
      concerned about since it views social stability as a national           
      imperative. To ease this concern, the microblog servers all must        
      implement strict measures to censor information and quickly remove any  
      posts deemed inappropriate. Sina.com has reportedly established a team  
      of thousands of monitors to keep sensitive content to a minimum.        
                                                                              
      Recognizing the power of microblogs, Chinese authorities began using    
      the new media to gauge public opinion, publicize government activities  
      and promote communications with citizens. Beginning this year, many     
      government officials have created accounts on microblog servers,        
      including Chinese President Hu Jintao, whose account on a service run   
      by the state-owned People*s Daily was open only briefly in February     
      and drew 16,000 followers within 24 hours.                              
                                                                              
      Li Changchun, the member in charge of propaganda within the country*s   
      powerful nine-person Politburo Standing Committee, wrote an article in  
      June calling on local authorities to embrace new media. The article,    
      which appeared in the CPC publication *Seek Truth,* inspired Bo Xilai   
      to incorporate a microblog into his Chongqing Red Campaign, though      
      Li*s article focused on microblogs as more of a propaganda tool than a  
      means of sharing important government information with the public.      
                                                                              
      Indeed, in a country where censorship is an art form, official          
      microblogs remain largely a medium for disseminating carefully          
      screened information and controlling sensitive news. Nevertheless,      
      they also create a new medium of national communications through which  
      certain political affairs previously unknown outside the corridors of   
      power can be made known to the public. This makes government more       
      receptive * or at least exposed * to public opinion and criticism,      
      which could encourage it to improve its performance. More openness      
      surrounding certain issues could also promote more grassroots           
      participation in Chinese political affairs.                             
                                                                              
      While promoting government transparency and accountability, however,    
      microblogs also pose challenges in managing the flow of information     
      and maintaining social stability. As social media develop further in    
      China, authorities will have to stay ahead of the curve and adopt new   
      measures to pre-empt potential threats. The challenges posed by         
      fast-developing media are daunting as China approaches a generational   
      leadership transition in 2012, but these are challenges the current     
      government is no doubt determined to meet.                              
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 25, 2010 9:09:32 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Mexico: Rebranding the Cartel Wars

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Mexico: Rebranding the Cartel Wars                                       
                                                                              
      December 25, 2010 | 1502 GMT                                            
      Mexico: Rebranding the Cartel Wars                                      
      RONALDO SCHEMIDT/AFP/Getty Images                                       
      Alleged Sinaloa Federation cartel members in Federal Police custody in  
      Mexico City on Nov. 8                                                   
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      Mexican lawmakers recently approved reforms to the federal penal code   
      to punish terrorist acts. Significantly, the legislators acknowledged   
      that the definition of terrorism was written in such a way that         
      violent and extortionist acts of cartels could be classified as         
      terrorism. Fundamental differences between organized criminal and       
      terrorist groups exist, but politically characterizing certain cartel   
      acts as terrorism could develop into a more subtle attempt by the       
      Mexican government to dilute public tolerance for cartel activity. If   
      implemented against cartel members, the law could also carry            
      significant implications for U.S. involvement in the drug war.          
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
      Related Video                                                           
        * Dispatch: Organized Crime vs. Terrorism                             
      Related Link                                                            
        * Mexican Drug Wars: Bloodiest Year to Date                           
      Related Special Topic Page                                              
        * Tracking Mexico*s Drug Cartels                                      
                                                                              
      In a Dec. 15 plenary session of the Chamber of Deputies in Mexico       
      City, Mexican lawmakers approved reforms to the federal penal code to   
      punish terrorist acts with 10- to 50-year prison sentences. Under the   
      law, terrorism is defined as *the use of toxic substances, chemical or  
      biological weapons, radioactive materials, explosives or firearms,      
      arson, flooding, or any other means of violence against people,         
      assets, or public services, with the aim of causing alarm, fear, or     
      terror among the population or a sector of it, of attacking national    
      security or intimidating society, or of pressuring the authorities      
      into making a decision.* Though the reforms focused on specific         
      changes to the penal and financial code of the law, Mexican lawmakers   
      approving the text publicly acknowledged that violent and extortionist  
      acts of drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) could be characterized    
      as terrorism and could thus subject drug traffickers to extended        
      prison sentences.                                                       
                                                                              
      The move is part of Mexican President Felipe Calderon*s attempt to      
      address the record drug violence of 2010 by reforming Mexico*s penal    
      system while cooperating closely with the United States in              
      extraditions of high-value cartel members. Yet as Mexico*s overcrowded  
      prisons and the most recent mass prison break on Dec. 17 in Nuevo       
      Laredo have demonstrated, the Mexican penal system is simply unable to  
      cope with the government*s offensive against the drug cartels. Given    
      the corrosive effect of corruption on Mexico*s courts and prisons,      
      these are not problems that are likely to see meaningful improvement    
      any time soon. Still, the political move to potentially redefine        
      organized criminal activities of drug cartels as terrorism could shed   
      light on a more subtle tactic by the government to dilute public        
      tolerance for cartel operations in Mexico.                              
                                                                              
       Organized Crime vs. Terrorism                                          
                                                                              
      The goals of militant groups employing terrorism are often ideological  
      in nature, whereas the goals of organized criminal elements are         
      primarily economically-driven. Still, the activities undertaken by      
      both types of groups often overlap: militant groups that employ         
      terrorism can engage in organized criminal activity (think Hezbollah    
      and its heavy involvement in drug trafficking and illegal car sales)    
      and organized crime syndicates will sometimes, though more rarely,      
      adopt terrorism as a tactic. At the same time, due primarily to their   
      divergent aims, an organized crime group is placed under very           
      different constraints than a terrorist organization. Those differences  
      will dictate how each will operate, and also to what extent their       
      activities will be tolerated by the general populace.                   
                                                                              
      The primary objective of an organized criminal group is to utilize its  
      core illicit business (in the case of Mexico, drug trafficking) to      
      make money. To protect that core, some territory is unofficially        
      brought under the group*s control and an extensive peripheral network,  
      typically composed of policemen, bankers, politicians, businessmen and  
      judges, is developed to provide an umbrella of protection within the    
      licit world. In building such a network, popular support is essential.  
      This does not always mean the population will condone an organized      
      crime group*s activities, but the populace could be effectively         
      intimidated * or rewarded * into tolerating its existence. Generally,   
      the better the organized crime syndicate is able to provide public      
      goods (be it protection, jobs or a portion of the trade revenue) the    
      better insulated the group and its activities will be.                  
                                                                              
      By contrast, a militant group primarily employing terrorism is          
      pursuing a political goal, and the financial aspects of their           
      activities are merely a means to an end. Such a group will not need to  
      rely on as extensive a network to survive and thus faces fewer          
      constraints in dealing with public sensitivities. While the organized   
      crime syndicate will be more accommodating to the state to ensure       
      their business carries on as usual, the militant organization will be   
      focused on disruption. These groups could be more willing to incur the  
      cost of losing popular support in the targeting and scale of their      
      attacks as long as it attracts attention to their political cause (or   
      if they are motivated by a religious ideology that they believe         
      transcends the need for popular support). A militant group can attempt  
      to adopt the benefits of a peripheral network by free-riding off        
      insurgencies and organized crime syndicates, as al Qaeda has done with  
      the insurgent and criminal networks in Iraq and Afghanistan.            
      Maintaining such relationships, however, can be a very costly affair    
      and the interests of both actors run a high risk of colliding.          
                                                                              
       The Cost of Employing Terrorism                                        
                                                                              
      An interesting dynamic can occur when organized crime groups resort to  
      terrorist-style tactics, and they end up paying for it with an          
      irreparable loss in public support. This was the fate of Sicilian       
      mafia group La Cosa Nostra, whose decision to launch improvised         
      explosive device (IED) attacks in 1992 against magistrates Giovanni     
      Falcone and Paolo Borsellino unleashed a public outcry that catalyzed   
      the group*s decline. Similarly, Pablo Escobar and his Medellin cocaine  
      cartel saw their downfall following the murder of popular presidential  
      candidate Luis Carlos Galan, the bombing of Avianca Flight 203 and a    
      campaign of large vehicle-borne improvised explosive device attacks     
      across urban Colombia in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Once the       
      level of violence surpassed a certain threshold, the Colombian          
      government was able to gain enough traction with the public to obtain   
      the necessary intelligence to place the Medellin cartel on the          
      defensive. Critically, the government also had the public*s             
      endorsement in taking heavy-handed measures against the cartels,        
      something that the Mexican government today lacks.                      
                                                                              
      In Mexico, cartels have gradually become bolder and more violent in     
      their tactics. Decapitations have become a favorite intimidation        
      tactic of the most prominent cartels, and in 2010 some organizations    
      began using IEDs in their campaign of violence. That said, those        
      cartel members conducting the IED attacks have refrained from           
      targeting crowds of civilians out of fear of losing their peripheral    
      networks. This sensitivity could be seen in the outrage that followed   
      the September 2008 Independence Day grenade attack in Morelia,          
      Michoacan state, which was the first clear case of indiscriminate       
      killing of civilians in the drug war. The Gulf cartel seized the        
      opportunity to join in the public demonstrations, hanging banners that  
      offered rewards for the perpetrators and labeling the attack as an act  
      of narco-terrorism. In the Mexican case, such *narco-terrorist*         
      tactics are more likely to be used by cartels to try to undercut their  
      cartel rivals, using public abhorrence toward terrorism to their        
      advantage while still maintaining a pool of support.                    
                                                                              
      The cartels have in fact been more successful in raising the level of   
      violence to the point where the public itself is demanding an end to    
      the government offensive against the cartels, a dynamic that is         
      already very much in play in Mexico*s northern states on the            
      frontlines of the drug war. Some of these public demonstrations and     
      petitions by business firms are even directly organized and/or          
      facilitated by DTOs. But this is also a very delicate balance for the   
      DTOs to maintain. Should a line be crossed, the public tide could       
      swing against the cartels and the government could regain the           
      offensive and the popular support to pursue the cartels with an iron    
      fist. This is why the best long-term insurance policy for the cartels   
      is to expand their networks into the political, security and business   
      establishment to the furthest extent possible, making it all the more   
      likely that those simply wanting business to go on as usual will        
      outnumber those looking to sustain the fight.                           
                                                                              
      The potential rebranding of cartel activities as terrorism could thus   
      be indicative of a more subtle approach by Mexican authorities to       
      undermine public tolerance for the cartels. The unsavory terrorist      
      label could have more impact than the classification of organized       
      crime that many in Mexico now consider a way of life. Even then, the    
      large number of Mexicans overwhelmed by all facets of the drug war      
      could write off such a classification as a mere public relations move.  
                                                                              
      Though Mexican lawmakers have yet to implement the reforms, rebranding  
      Mexican cartel members as terrorists could significantly heighten U.S.  
      involvement in the conflict and attract more funding and materiel for   
      fighting the cartels. Cartel members could also be subjected to more    
      stringent punishment outside Mexico if they are arrested or extradited  
      abroad and classified as terrorists under Mexican law. Still, this      
      move for now is strictly a political characterization, the effects of   
      which have yet to be seen. The Mexican government wants to keep a       
      close check on U.S. anti-cartel activity in Mexico, and would want to   
      avoid providing its northern neighbor with counterterrorism as a        
      rationale for unilateral military intervention on Mexican soil.         
                                                                              
      There are several fundamental differences between terrorist and         
      organized criminal groups that dictate how each will operate when       
      placed under certain constraints. The Mexican populace is by and large  
      fed up with the cartel violence, but the cartels have not resorted to   
      terrorist tactics and civilian targeting on a scale that would risk     
      the degradation of their peripheral networks. This is a line STRATFOR   
      expects Mexican DTOs to be mindful of, but is a situation that bears    
      close watching as the government searches for ways to drive the         
      cartels toward a breaking point.                                        
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
      Not For Publication                                                     
      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 27, 2010 5:34:36 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Intelligence Guidance: Week of Dec. 26, 2010

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Intelligence Guidance: Week of Dec. 26, 2010                             
                                                                              
      December 27, 2010 | 1127 GMT                                            
      Intelligence Guidance: Week of Dec. 26, 2010                            
      Win McNamee/Getty Images                                                
      U.S. Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) (L) with U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar         
      (R-Ind.) in Washington on Dec. 22 following the Senate ratification of  
      the new START treaty                                                    
                                                                              
      Editor*s Note: The following is an internal STRATFOR document produced  
      to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a  
      forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and       
      evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.           
                                                                              
      New Guidance                                                            
                                                                              
      1. Israel, Palestinian Territories: The Israeli-Palestinian situation   
      in Gaza appears to be heating up. Hamas has resumed low-level rocket    
      fire against Israeli settlements and the Israelis have intensified      
      airstrikes. A senior Israeli officer has said that the question is not  
      whether there would be a war, but when it would occur. The motivation   
      on the Palestinian side appears to be derailing any peace talks with    
      the Palestinian National Authority. The Israeli motivation appears to   
      be asserting its own freedom for maneuverability following the          
      pressure from the Americans and the breach with Turkey. The Israelis    
      have announced that they would not apologize to Turkey * after weeks    
      of rumors that they would. Taken together, both sides have a reason     
      for wanting a round of fighting. We need to look for whether there      
      will be an incident to ignite conflict.                                 
                                                                              
      2. Russia: Now that the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START)     
      has passed, we need to watch the Russians to determine what it will     
      mean. By itself, it is irrelevant. As a signal of changing relations,   
      it might have some meaning. One place to look is Belarus, where the     
      elections were followed by the arrests of some of the losing            
      candidates. Poland has been involved there, as have the Russians. If    
      there is going to be a new relationship, it should show itself there.   
                                                                              
      3. China: The Chinese have raised interest rates for the second time    
      in 10 weeks. We need to understand what this means, particularly for    
      small- and medium-sized export-oriented firms. Increased interest       
      rates drive up the cost of Chinese imports in the long run * if         
      interest rates actually go up. There is always a distance between       
      Chinese announcements and Chinese reality. We need to see if rising     
      rates are translated into actual bank-to-business lending, and figure   
      out what that means for the economy.                                    
                                                                              
      Existing Guidance                                                       
                                                                              
      1. Iran: We need to bring Tehran and the U.S.-Iranian dynamic back to   
      the forefront of our focus. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad       
      fired Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki the week of Dec. 12 while he  
      was out of the country. Mottaki, with what may be some support from     
      Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, does not appear to be accepting his    
      ousting quietly. This may be another indication that Ahmadinejad is     
      consolidating his power in Tehran, but we need to watch this closely    
      and redouble our efforts to understand the power dynamics in the        
      Iranian capital.                                                        
                                                                              
      2. Pakistan, Afghanistan: The U.S.-led International Security           
      Assistance Force has made progress militarily in Afghanistan, but the   
      Taliban have now retaliated in Kabul. The war will not turn on          
      intermittent militant attacks, even in the capital. We need to examine  
      how the Taliban view the American-led counterinsurgency-focused         
      strategy and how they consider reacting to it. Inextricable from all    
      this is Pakistan, where we need to look at how the United States views  
      the Afghan-Pakistani relationship and what it will seek to get out of   
      it in the year ahead.                                                   
                                                                              
      3. Iraq: A governing coalition is taking form in Baghdad, albeit        
      slowly. We need to lean forward on this, looking at the final           
      breakdown of power and understanding what this will mean for Iraq, the  
      United States and the region. In just over one year, all U.S. forces    
      are slated to be withdrawn from the country, and with them an enormous  
      amount of American influence. Will this go through? With the governing  
      coalition issue settled, what are the key points of contention between  
      Washington and Tehran?                                                  
                                                                              
      4. United States: U.S. State Department diplomatic cables continue to   
      trickle out of WikiLeaks. How are countries and their populations       
      reacting to the revelations made in the cables? What will be the        
      functional consequences for the practice of American diplomacy? Are     
      there any major rifts emerging? We need to keep track of the public     
      reaction and stay aware of any constraints domestic politics may place  
      on the countries in question. Though few radically new or unexpected    
      revelations have been unearthed, the release offers remarkably broad    
      insight into the world of American foreign policy as it takes place     
      behind closed doors. How do the leaks either confirm or call into       
      question standing STRATFOR assessments?                                 
                                                                              
      Related Special Topic Page                                              
        * Weekly Intelligence That Drives Our Analysis                        
                                                                              
      EURASIA                                                                 
                                                                              
        * Dec. 27: Originally scheduled for Dec. 15, the verdict will be      
          given in the trial of former Yukos CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky.        
        * Dec. 27: A hearing will be held in Austria over the extradition of  
          former Croatian Prime Minister Ivo Sanader, who is under            
          investigation for abuse of power and for conspiracy to commit       
          crime.                                                              
        * Dec. 28: Ukraine will hold a tender to sell state                   
          telecommunications company Ukrtelecom for at least $1.3 billion.    
          Five companies are expected to compete in the tender.               
        * Dec. 28: Rail worker unions in Bosnia-Herzegovina will hold a       
          general strike.                                                     
        * Dec. 30: The official results of the presidential election in       
          Belarus will be released.                                           
        * Dec. 31: Ukraine will adopt its national budget for 2011.           
        * Dec. 31: An opposition rally, held at the end of every month, will  
          take place in Moscow*s Triumfalnaya Square.                         
        * Jan. 1: Hungary will assume the European Union*s rotating           
          presidency.                                                         
        * Jan. 1: Estonia will join the eurozone as its 17th member.          
        * Jan. 1: Russia is scheduled to scrap oil export duties to Belarus.  
        * Jan. 1: France*s minimum wage is set to increase by between 1.6     
          and 1.7 percent.                                                    
                                                                              
      MIDDLE EAST/SOUTH ASIA                                                  
                                                                              
        * Dec. 28: An international convoy carrying humanitarian aid will     
          arrive in Gaza after travelling through Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt.  
        * Dec. 28: Kuwaiti Prime Minister Sheikh Nasser Muhammad al-Ahmad     
          al-Sabah will be questioned by the parliament over potential        
          constitutional amendments.                                          
        * Dec. 30 Turkish President Abdullah Gul is scheduled to visit        
          Diyarbakir for a two-day trip.                                      
                                                                              
      EAST ASIA                                                               
                                                                              
        * Dec. 27-Jan. 3: A temporary cease-fire will continue between the    
          Communist Party of the Philippines (and its armed wing, the New     
          People*s Army) and the Philippine government.                       
        * Dec. 27: The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) will hold a meeting    
          of party executives to decide on a course of action regarding       
          former DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa*s campaign funding scandal.          
        * Dec. 27-28: Bangladeshi Foreign Minister Dipu Moni will lead a      
          delegation on an official visit to Cambodia.                        
        * Dec. 27-29: Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi will pay an        
          official visit to Kazakhstan.                                       
                                                                              
      AMERICAS                                                                
                                                                              
        * Dec. 27: The Venezuelan National Assembly is scheduled to restart   
          a special session to approve pending legislation.                   
        * Dec. 27-Jan.1: Chinese State Councilor Liu Yandong will continue    
          her official visit to Ecuador, Colombia and Antigua and Barbuda     
          after concluding a trip to Chile. She is slated to meet with        
          Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa on Dec. 27.                      
                                                                              
      AFRICA                                                                  
                                                                              
        * Dec. 30: The deadline will pass for receiving and settling          
          complaints regarding the electoral register for the Jan. 9, 2011,   
          Southern Sudanese independence referendum.                          
        * Dec. 31: The final voter registration list for the Southern         
          Sudanese independence referendum will be ready.                     
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
      Not For Publication                                                     
      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 27, 2010 8:12:03 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 10 - Afghanistan Surge

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 10 - Afghanistan Surge                      
                                                                              
      December 27, 2010 | 1325 GMT                                            
                                                                              
      Choosing the 10 most important geopolitical events of the past decade   
      is a challenge. But STRATFOR analysts took on the task, and after a     
      robust debate, they produced our Top 10 Most Important Geopolitical     
      Events of the Decade. We have teamed up with our partner,               
      DigitalGlobe, the world*s leading commercial satellite imagery          
      company, to provide compelling images illustrating each of these key    
      events.                                                                 
                                                                              
      Join us as we count down the Top 10, unveiling an event daily starting  
      Dec. 27 and culminating Jan. 5, when we reveal our selection for the    
      single most important event of the decade.                              
                                                                              
      Click the link below to see STRATFOR*s explanation of each event along  
      with a satellite image.                                                 
                                                                              
      Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 10 - Afghanistan Surge                     
      (click here to view interactive map)                                    
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
      Not For Publication                                                     
                                                                              
      This report may be forwarded or republished on your website with        
      attribution to www.stratfor.com                                         
      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 27, 2010 12:30:25 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: A Political Scandal in Estonia and Russian influence in the
     Baltics

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     A Political Scandal in Estonia and Russian influence in the Baltics      
                                                                              
      December 27, 2010 | 1709 GMT                                            
      A Political Scandal in Estonia and Russian influence in the Baltics     
      RAIGO PAJULA/AFP/Getty Images                                           
      Tallinn Mayor Edgar Savisaar in 2006                                    
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      Prominent Estonian political leader Edgar Savisaar has come under fire  
      for accepting a grant from a Russian nongovernmental organization.      
      Since the story broke, Estonian politicians have been busy questioning  
      their peers* patriotism and involvement with the Russians. With         
      elections due in Estonia in March and citizens fixated on the           
      country*s economic and financial problems, this scandal demonstrates    
      Russia*s unique form of influence in the Baltic state.                  
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      Estonia faced ongoing political controversy Dec. 27 as Tallinn mayor    
      and opposition Center Party leader Edgar Savisaar faced accusations by  
      opposing party members of pro-Russian leanings. The scandal stems from  
      a now-declassified report from Estonia*s intelligence agency,           
      Kaitsepolitsei (KaPo), labeling Savisaar an *agent of influence* of     
      Russia and a *security threat* due to his acquisition of 1.5 million    
      euros (about $2 million) from a Russian nongovernmental organization    
      (NGO).                                                                  
                                                                              
      The controversy began after Estonian newspaper Postimees reported Dec.  
      16 that KaPo had written the Estonian government describing Savisaar    
      as a national security threat. This was not the first time Savisaar*s   
      ties to Russia had been publicly aired, nor the first time that KaPo    
      had leveled criticism against him. The scandal undoubtedly will serve   
      as a leading issue in Estonian parliamentary elections set for March    
      2011. It also highlights the nuanced and subtle influence Russia        
      exercises in Estonia and the Baltic region in general * as well as      
      Moscow*s opportunity to expand its influence in the Baltic state.       
                                                                              
       Savisaar and Estonian Politics                                         
                                                                              
      Savisaar, an important figure within Estonian politics, has served as   
      prime minister, interior minister and economic Minister over the past   
      20 years. He now heads the leading opposition party in the Estonian     
      government, which draws a substantial portion of its support from the   
      country*s ethnic Russians and Russian-speakers, which comprise 25       
      percent of the total population. This composition means the Center      
      Party has a much more pro-Russian orientation than the rest of          
      Estonia*s political parties, most of which * like the main party, the   
      Estonian Reform Party * are firmly oriented toward the West,            
      particularly through institutions such as the European Union and NATO.  
                                                                              
      In 2004, Savisaar signed a cooperation agreement between the Center     
      Party and Russia*s pro-Kremlin United Russia party, now led by Russian  
      Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Savisaar frequently has traveled to      
      Russia. KaPo described his latest visit to Russia in early 2010 as      
      *undermining* the country*s morale in a way not seen since post-Soviet  
      independence.                                                           
                                                                              
      KaPo*s latest accusation alleges that Savisaar attained funding from a  
      Russian NGO called the Andrei Pervozvannoi Fund (APF), which offers     
      support to Russians in foreign countries for the construction and       
      restoration of Russian Orthodox churches.                               
                                                                              
      Estonian Prime Minister Andrus Ansip, who heads the Reform Party, has   
      said the information has not changed his attitude toward Savisaar,      
      which he called one of distrust. Ansip alluded to the possibility that  
      the investigation could be a clever media plan by the Center Party to   
      better argue for foreign monies by bolstering its support among         
      Russian-speakers, but he said it was the security service*s place to    
      decide what was really happening.                                       
                                                                              
       The Russian Connection                                                 
                                                                              
      Intriguingly, APF is no ordinary charity. It is chaired by Vladimir     
      Yakunin, who heads state-owned Russian Railways and is one of the most  
      influential people in the Kremlin * according to STRATFOR sources, he   
      is in Putin*s innermost circle. Yakunin also allegedly is a former      
      first directorate KGB agent who served at the United Nations. Yakunin   
      has been responsible for Russian forays into Europe via financial and   
      business interests and has personal ties to Estonia, where he lived     
      and studied for many years.                                             
                                                                              
      A Political Scandal in Estonia and Russian influence in the Baltics     
                                                                              
      Savisaar has insisted that his relationship with APF is harmless. He    
      has acknowledged receiving 1.5 million euros from Yakunin but said      
      they are for the construction of a church rather than for the           
      advancement of his political party. He has pointed out that freedom of  
      religion is guaranteed in Estonia and said he has received funds from   
      several organizations to build other religious buildings, including     
      synagogues and Lutheran churches, none of which sparked KaPo probes.    
      Savisaar described the report as *inattentive.* While it asserted       
      Savisaar*s relationship with Yakunin only began in the past year, he    
      says that he had in fact known Yakunin for at least five years.         
      Savisaar also accused KaPo of working with Russian intelligence         
      against him and that KaPo had told him to make connections in Russia.   
                                                                              
      He said the release of the report was a politically motivated attempt   
      to discredit his Center Party, which has been gaining in popularity     
      due its populist and economic-focused agenda, ahead of March 2011       
      elections. Estonia was hit hard during the financial crisis, suffering  
      a contraction in gross domestic product of roughly 14 percent in 2009.  
      While the country has since returned to economic growth, inflation      
      remains high and unemployment has not fallen.                           
                                                                              
      APF, meanwhile, has called KaPo*s allegations preposterous, and stated  
      that such accusations send a message to other political, NGO or         
      commercial organizations not to help Russians living in Estonia.        
                                                                              
       Russia*s Geopolitical Position in the Baltics                          
                                                                              
      From a broader perspective, the scandal reveals Russia*s subtle form    
      of influence in the Baltics. Moscow is often painted as the villain     
      ahead of elections in the Baltics, where linking political opponents    
      with Russia is time-honored political tactic. Casting Russia in a       
      negative light is not terribly difficult, as Russia in fact engaged in  
      cyberattacks against Estonia in 2007, while the Russian community       
      protested the removal of a Soviet-era monument to World War II, when    
      Russia overran Estonia.                                                 
                                                                              
      It also underscores the challenge Russia faces in expanding its         
      resurgence in the Baltic states. Unlike in other former Soviet states   
      like Belarus, Kazakhstan, or Ukraine, Russia*s projection of influence  
      must be subtle to succeed in the Baltics. Though these rumors began in  
      the Estonian government, Moscow tends to have a hand in the timing of   
      when these sorts of scandals break, revealing its nuanced approach.     
                                                                              
      Grassroots and cultural ties remain Moscow*s most effective levers      
      into the Baltics, particularly targeting Russian populations. In this   
      case, Moscow is not only using this fund to build influence through     
      cultural and religious means, but it is also playing up the attack by   
      Estonian security services and politicians on the pro-Russian Tallinn   
      mayor to smear Estonia*s parties, saying this is simply a pre-election  
      ploy.                                                                   
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 27, 2010 5:43:31 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Mexico Security Memo: Dec. 27, 2010

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Mexico Security Memo: Dec. 27, 2010                                      
                                                                              
      December 27, 2010 | 2335 GMT                                            
      Mexico Security Memo: Dec. 20, 2010                                     
                                                                              
       Gulf Cartel Enforcer Arrested                                          
                                                                              
      On Dec. 22, Mexican Federal Police announced the arrest of Martin       
      Armando Briones Muniz, also known as *El Negro,* a suspected leader of  
      a group of cartel enforcers linked to the Gulf cartel. Briones Muniz    
      was arrested with two of his men in the Las Fuentes neighborhood of     
      Reynosa, Tamaulipas state. The Federal Police allege that Briones       
      Muniz was the leader of a Gulf cartel enforcer unit that had been       
      tasked with undertaking military operations against members of Los      
      Zetas cartel in Reynosa and Ciudad Mier.                                
                                                                              
      The arrest of Briones Muniz comes only weeks after the death of Gulf    
      cartel leader Antonio Ezequiel *Tony Tormenta* Cardenas Guillen, who    
      was killed Nov. 5 in a raid by Mexican marines. Cardenas Guillen        
      oversaw the operations of Los Escorpiones enforcement group, an         
      organization that played a critical role in forcing Los Zetas out of    
      the Reynosa and Matamoros regions in the first half of 2010.            
                                                                              
      While Briones Muniz is certainly not as senior, or as important, to     
      the Gulf cartel as Cardenas Guillen, his loss will certainly be felt    
      as the Gulf cartel struggles to retain the territory it seized from     
      Los Zetas in 2010 * a struggle that will rely heavily on the ability    
      of enforcer units to counter Los Zetas* military might. With their      
      allies from the Sinaloa Federation occupied elsewhere, the Gulf cartel  
      might be in a difficult position when Los Zetas launch the anticipated  
      counteroffensive against their former Gulf cartel masters in the        
      coming weeks.                                                           
                                                                              
       State of Siege Declared in Alta Verapaz, Guatemala                     
                                                                              
      On Dec. 19, the government of Guatemala declared a *state of siege* in  
      Guatemala*s Alta Verapaz department in an effort to counter the         
      influence of Los Zetas along the Guatemala-Mexico border. The state of  
      siege has been authorized to last 30 days, but Guatemalan President     
      Alvaro Colom has told the press that the siege will last as long as is  
      required. Declaring a state of siege permits the military to assist     
      the Guatemalan National Police in conducting operations against the     
      Mexican cartel. It also permits the government to conduct warrantless   
      searches as well as detain suspects without warrants, and it prohibits  
      gun possession in public. To date, the Guatemalan government reports    
      that it has arrested nearly two dozen members of Los Zetas, including   
      one leader. They also claim to have seized more than 200 weapons,       
      several vehicles and five aircraft.                                     
                                                                              
      While both Los Zetas and the Sinaloa Federation maintain operations in  
      Guatemala, Los Zetas are particularly active in the country. Not only   
      do Los Zetas use Guatemala as a corridor for smuggling drugs into       
      Mexico, but they also use it as a place for recruiting and training     
      new gunmen and obtaining weapons.                                       
                                                                              
      Since at least 2006, Los Zetas have maintained a close working          
      relationship with former members of the Guatemalan special forces       
      called Kaibiles, named for Guatemala*s Kaibil Special Operations        
      Training Center, which is located in the dense jungle of Poptun, Peten  
      department. The Guatemalan government reports that the purported Zeta   
      leader arrested during this operation was a former Kaibil. Los Zetas    
      have also worked closely with the street gangs, such as Mara            
      Salvatrucha (MS-13), which wield a significant amount of influence in   
      Guatemala and effectively control significant portions of Guatemala     
      City.                                                                   
                                                                              
      It is quite interesting that the Guatemalan government declared the     
      state of siege in Alta Verapaz department and has focused its military  
      operations on the capital of that department, Coban. While Alta         
      Verapaz is in the north of the country, it does not have a direct       
      border with Mexico. Indeed Los Zetas are far more operationally         
      involved in the adjacent Peten and Quiche departments, which directly   
      border on Mexico. Los Zetas are also heavily involved in the            
      Huehuetenango department, where the Inter-American highway, CA-1, is    
      located. CA-1 is a major vehicular border crossing between Guatemala    
      and Mexico and is a critical point for both narcotics and human         
      trafficking.                                                            
                                                                              
      While Alta Verapaz is not directly on the border, it is an important    
      department for both Los Zetas and the Guatemalan government because     
      the main surface transportation routes into both the western section    
      of the Peten department and northern section of Quiche department pass  
      through it. Holding Coban and a few other strategic road junctions and  
      checkpoints in Alta Verapaz can therefore allow the Guatemalan          
      government to make it more difficult for Los Zetas to smuggle           
      narcotics via road into the sections of Peten and northern Quiche       
      adjacent to the Mexican border. Establishing strategic roadblocks       
      would also make it more difficult for Los Zetas to get reinforcements   
      and fresh supplies to these areas. This pressure could spark            
      retaliatory strikes by Los Zetas against these checkpoints or other     
      government targets.                                                     
                                                                              
      Skeptics have argued that the operation in Alta Verapaz is merely a     
      ploy by the Guatemalans to get more U.S. funding, since it does not     
      directly impact those areas of the country where Los Zetas are most     
      active. However, if the Guatemalans truly intend to take the fight to   
      Los Zetas in Peten and the northern sections of Quiche, clearing and    
      holding Coban and setting up roadblocks to curtail the ability of Los   
      Zetas to move men and materiel through Alta Verapaz is a logical        
      tactical step.                                                          
                                                                              
      The Guatemalan government has publicly stated that it has ruled out     
      extending the state of siege to other parts of the country. If the      
      government does intend to put boots on the ground in areas where Los    
      Zetas have set up camps and airstrips in Peten and Quiche, they will    
      likely be able to conduct raids (most likely by air) in those very      
      isolated and remote sections of Peten and Quiche without declaring the  
      same type of state of siege they have in Alta Verapaz. If the           
      Guatemalan government launches such raids, it will be confirmation      
      that the operation in Alta Verapaz was a preparatory activity and not   
      merely lip service.                                                     
                                                                              
      However, if the Guatemalan government is truly serious about            
      countering the influence of Los Zetas they cannot confine their         
      activities just to the remote areas of the Peten and Quiche             
      departments. They will also be compelled to undertake operations to     
      take control of the CA-1 corridor in Huehuetenango department. This     
      area (especially along CA-1) is far more heavily populated than the     
      border areas in Peten and Quiche and would likely require an operation  
      similar to that currently being conducted in Coban.                     
                                                                              
         Dec. 20                                                              
                                                                              
        * Guatemalan authorities said that four suspected members of Los      
          Zetas were arrested in the Guatemalan department of Alta Verapaz.   
        * The body of a local municipal employee was discovered in the        
          municipality of Tlajomulco de Zuniga, Jalisco state. The victim     
          had been kidnapped on Dec. 18 by several armed men.                 
        * The body of a decapitated man was discovered in the municipality    
          of Tlalmanalco, Mexico state. A message attributing the crime to    
          drug-trafficking cartel La Familia Michoacana was discovered near   
          the body.                                                           
        * Parts of the dismembered body of an unidentified man were found in  
          the municipalities of Los Reyes de la Paz and Nezahualcoyotl,       
          Mexico state.                                                       
                                                                              
         Dec. 21                                                              
                                                                              
        * Unidentified gunmen shot and killed four people on a soccer field   
          in the Riberas del Bravo neighborhood of Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua   
          state.                                                              
        * Police announced the Dec. 19 arrest of a suspected member of Los    
          Zetas that led a group of kidnappers in the municipalities of Agua  
          Dulce and Las Choapas, Veracruz state. Seven other people were      
          arrested during the raid and four kidnap victims were freed.        
        * Unidentified gunmen shot and killed the military commander of a     
          Joint Operations Base in a restaurant in Uruapan, Michoacan state.  
                                                                              
         Dec. 22                                                              
                                                                              
        * Three unidentified attackers set a house on fire in the San         
          Bernabe neighborhood of Monterrey, Nuevo Leon state. The            
          homeowners were not at the house during the attack.                 
        * Police announced the arrest of Martin Armando Briones Muniz, a      
          suspected leader of a criminal group linked to the Gulf Cartel.     
          Briones Muniz was arrested in the Las Fuentes neighborhood of       
          Reynosa, Tamaulipas state.                                          
        * The body of an unidentified man with two gunshot wounds to the      
          head was discovered in Tlalnepantla, Mexico state.                  
        * Unidentified attackers threw a grenade at the city hall in Ciudad   
          Victoria, Tamaulipas state, injuring a security guard.              
                                                                              
         Dec. 23                                                              
                                                                              
        * Soldiers seized a suspected methamphetamine lab in the              
          municipality of Paracuaro, Michoacan state.                         
        * One police officer was killed and two civilians were injured        
          during a grenade attack by unidentified attackers in Tampico,       
          Tamaulipas state.                                                   
        * Police arrested former La Familia Michoacana member Alejandro       
          Yanez Hernandez in the municipality of Los Reyes de la Paz, Mexico  
          state. Yanez Hernandez is believed to be linked to at least 12      
          murders.                                                            
        * Soldiers arrested Fabian Villarreal Valle, a suspected chief of     
          gunmen for La Familia Michoacana, in Tlatlaya, Mexico state. The    
          suspect was arrested at a road checkpoint, where 48.5 kilograms     
          (107 pounds) of marijuana were seized from his vehicle.             
                                                                              
         Dec. 24                                                              
                                                                              
        * A banner attributing acts of violence to the Mexican Federal        
          Police was discovered hanging from a bridge in Zacapu, Michoacan    
          state. The banner said that the police committed acts of violence   
          to frame La Familia Michoacana.                                     
        * Dec. 25                                                             
        * Two suspected members of street gang MS-13 were arrested in         
          Ixtepec, Oaxaca state. The suspects were arrested during            
          operations to discover the whereabouts of migrants allegedly        
          seized on Dec. 22.                                                  
        * One policeman was killed and two gunmen were injured during a       
          firefight in the municipality of Union, Guerrero state. No arrests  
          were made after the attack.                                         
                                                                              
         Dec. 26                                                              
                                                                              
        * A police officer was injured during an attack by unidentified       
          gunmen in Zihuatanejo, Guerrero state.                              
        * Three boxes of dynamite detonators were discovered in an            
          irrigation canal in Atotonilco de Tula, Hidalgo state.              
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
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      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
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      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 28, 2010 4:02:58 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Geopolitical Weekly : Making Sense of the START Debate

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Making Sense of the START Debate                                         
                                                                              
      December 28, 2010                                                       
                                                                              
      Europe: The New Plan                                                    
                                                                              
      By George Friedman                                                      
                                                                              
      Last week, the U.S. Senate gave its advice and consent to the New       
      Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which had been signed in   
      April. The Russian legislature still has to provide final approval of   
      the treaty, but it is likely to do so, and therefore a New START is     
      set to go into force. That leaves two questions to discuss. First,      
      what exactly have the two sides agreed to and, second, what does it     
      mean? Let*s begin with the first.                                       
                                                                              
      The original START was signed July 31, 1991, and reductions were        
      completed in 2001. The treaty put a cap on the number of nuclear        
      warheads that could be deployed. In addition to limiting the number of  
      land- and submarine-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)   
      and strategic bombers, it capped the number of warheads that were       
      available to launch at 6,000. The fact that this is a staggering        
      number of nuclear weapons should give you some idea of the staggering   
      number in existence prior to START. START I lapsed in 2009, and the     
      new treaty is essentially designed to reinstate it.                     
                                                                              
      It is important to remember that Ronald Reagan first proposed START.    
      His initial proposal focused on reducing the number of ICBMs. Given     
      that the Soviets did not have an effective intercontinental bomber      
      force and the United States had a massive B-52 force and follow-on      
      bombers in the works, the treaty he proposed would have decreased the   
      Soviet quantitative advantage in missile-based systems without          
      meaningfully reducing the U.S. advantage in bombers. The Soviets, of    
      course, objected, and a more balanced treaty emerged.                   
                                                                              
      What is striking is that START was signed just before the Soviet Union  
      collapsed and implemented long after it was gone. It derived from the   
      political realities that existed during the early 1980s. One of the     
      things the signers of both the original START and the New START have    
      ignored is that nuclear weapons by themselves are not the issue. The    
      issue is the geopolitical relationship between the two powers. The      
      number of weapons may affect budgetary considerations and theoretical   
      targeting metrics, but the danger of nuclear war does not derive from   
      the number of weapons but from the political relationship between       
      nations.                                                                
                                                                              
       The Importance of the Political Relationship                           
                                                                              
      I like to use this example. There are two countries that are            
      historical enemies. They have fought wars for centuries, and in many    
      ways, they still don*t like each other. Both are today, as they have    
      been for decades, significant nuclear powers. Yet neither side          
      maintains detection systems to protect against the other, and neither   
      has made plans for nuclear war with the other. This example is from     
      the real world; I am speaking of Britain and France. There are no       
      treaties between them regulating nuclear weapons in spite of the fact   
      that each has enough to devastate the other. This is because the        
      possession of nuclear weapons is not the issue. The political           
      relationship between Britain and France is the issue and, therefore,    
      the careful calibration of the Franco-British nuclear balance is        
      irrelevant and unnecessary.                                             
                                                                              
      The political relationship that existed between the United States and   
      the Soviet Union in the 1980s is not the same as the relationship that  
      exists today. Starting in the 1950s, the United States and Soviet       
      Union were in a state of near-war. The differences between them were    
      geopolitically profound. The United States was afraid that the Soviets  
      would seize Western Europe in an attack in order to change the global   
      balance of power. Given that the balance of power ran against the       
      Soviet Union, it was seen as possible that they would try to rectify    
      it by war.                                                              
                                                                              
      Since the United States had guaranteed Europe*s security with troops    
      and the promise that it would use nuclear weapons against the Soviet    
      Union to block the conquest of Europe, it followed that the Soviet      
      Union would initiate war by attempting to neutralize the American       
      nuclear capability. This would require a surprise attack on the United  
      States with Soviet missiles. It also followed that the United States,   
      in order to protect Europe, might launch a pre-emptive strike against   
      the Soviet military capability in order to protect the United States    
      and the balance of power.                                               
                                                                              
      Until the 1960s, the United States had an overwhelming advantage. Its   
      bomber force gave it the ability to strike the Soviet Union from the    
      United States. The Soviets chose not to build a significant bomber      
      force, relying instead on a missile capability that really wasn*t in    
      place and reliable until the mid-1960s. The Cuban missile crisis        
      derived in part from this imbalance. The Soviets wanted Cuba because    
      they could place shorter-range missiles there, threatening the B-52     
      fleet by reducing warning time and threatening the American population  
      should the B-52s strike the Soviet Union.                               
                                                                              
      A complex game emerged after Cuba. Both sides created reliable          
      missiles that could reach the other side, and both turned to a pure     
      counter-force strategy, designed to destroy not cities but enemy        
      missiles. The missiles were dispersed and placed in hardened silos.     
      Nuclear submarines, less accurate but holding cities hostage, were      
      deployed. Accuracy increased. From the mid-1960s on the nuclear         
      balance was seen as the foundation of the global balance of power.      
                                                                              
      The threat to global peace was that one side or the other would gain a  
      decisive advantage in the global balance. Knowledge of the imbalance    
      on both sides would enable the side with the advantage to impose its    
      political will on the other, which would be forced to capitulate in     
      any showdown.                                                           
                                                                              
       The Russo-American Strategic Balance                                   
                                                                              
      Therefore, both sides were obsessed with preventing the other side      
      from gaining a nuclear advantage. This created the nuclear arms race.   
      The desire to end the race was not based on the fear that more nuclear  
      weapons were dangerous but on the fear that any disequilibrium in       
      weapons, or the perception of disequilibrium, might trigger a war.      
      Rather than a dynamic equilibrium, with both sides matching or          
      overmatching the other*s perceived capability, the concept of a         
      treaty-based solution emerged, in which the equilibrium became static.  
      This concept itself was dangerous because it depended on verification   
      of compliance with treaties and led to the development of space-based   
      reconnaissance systems.                                                 
                                                                              
      The treaties did not eliminate anxiety. Both sides continued to         
      obsessively watch for a surprise attack, and both sides conducted       
      angry internal debates about whether the other side was violating the   
      treaties. Similarly, the deployment of new systems not covered by the   
      treaties created internal political struggles, particularly in the      
      West. When the Pershing II medium-range ballistic missiles were         
      deployed in Europe in the 1980s, major resistance to their deployment   
      from the European left emerged. The fear was that the new systems       
      would destabilize the nuclear balance, giving the United States an      
      advantage that might lead to nuclear war.                               
                                                                              
      This was also the foundation for the Soviets* objection to the Reagan   
      administration*s Strategic Defense Initiative, dubbed *Star Wars.*      
      Although Star Wars seemed useful and harmless, the Soviets argued that  
      if the United States were able to defend itself against Soviet attack,  
      then this would give the United States an advantage in the nuclear      
      balance, allowing it to strike at the Soviet Union and giving it        
      massive political leverage. This has always been the official basis of  
      the Russian objection to ballistic-missile defense (BMD) * they said    
      it upset the nuclear balance.                                           
                                                                              
      The United States never wanted to include tactical nuclear weapons in   
      these treaties. The Soviet conventional force appeared substantially    
      greater than the American alliance*s, and tactical nuclear weapons      
      seemed the only way to defeat a Soviet force. The Soviets, for their    
      part, would never agree to a treaty limiting conventional forces. That  
      was their great advantage, and if they agreed to parity there it would  
      permanently remove the one lever they had. There was no agreement on    
      this until just before the Soviet Union collapsed, and then it no       
      longer mattered. Thus, while both powers wanted strategic stability,    
      the struggle continued on the tactical level. Treaties could not        
      contain the political tension between the United States and the Soviet  
      Union.                                                                  
                                                                              
      And now we get to the fundamental problem with the idea of a nuclear    
      balance. The threat of nuclear war derived not from some bloodthirsty   
      desire to annihilate humanity but from a profound geopolitical          
      competition by the two great powers following the collapse of European  
      power. The United States had contained the Soviet Union, and the        
      Soviet Union was desperately searching for a way out of its             
      encirclement, whether by subversion or war. The Soviet Union had a      
      much more substantial conventional military force than the United       
      States. The Americans compensated with nuclear weapons to block Soviet  
      moves. As the Soviets increased their strategic nuclear capability,     
      the American limit on their conventional forces decreased, compensated  
      for by sub-strategic nuclear forces.                                    
                                                                              
      But it was all about the geopolitical situation. With the fall of the   
      Soviet Union, the Soviets lost the Cold War. Military conquest was      
      neither an option nor a requirement. Therefore, the U.S.-Soviet         
      nuclear balance became meaningless. If the Russians attacked Georgia    
      the United States wasn*t about to launch a nuclear war. The Caucasus    
      is not Western Europe. START was not about reducing nuclear forces      
      alone. It was about reducing them in a carefully calibrated manner so   
      that no side gained a strategic and therefore political advantage.      
                                                                              
      New START is therefore as archaic as the Treaty of Versailles. It       
      neither increases nor decreases security. It addresses a security       
      issue that last had meaning more than 20 years ago in a different       
      geopolitical universe. If a case can be made for reducing nuclear       
      weapons, it must be made in the current geopolitical situation.         
      Arguing for strategic arms reduction may have merit, but trying to      
      express it in the context of an archaic treaty makes little sense.      
                                                                              
       New START*s Relevance                                                  
                                                                              
      So why has this emerged? It is not because anyone is trying to          
      calibrate the American and Russian nuclear arsenals. Rather, it goes    
      back to the fiasco over the famous *reset button* that Hillary Clinton  
      brought to Moscow last March. Tensions over substantial but             
      sub-nuclear issues had damaged U.S.-Russian relations. The Russians     
      saw the Americans as wanting to create a new containment alliance       
      around the Russian Federation. The Americans saw the Russians as        
      trying to create a sphere of influence that would be the foundation of  
      a new Moscow-based regional system. Each side had a reasonable sense    
      of the other*s intentions. Clinton wanted to reset relations. The       
      Russians didn*t. They did not see the past as the model they wanted,    
      and they saw the American vision of a reset as a threat. The situation  
      grew worse, not better.                                                 
                                                                              
      An idea emerged in Washington that there needed to be                   
      confidence-building measures. One way to build confidence, so the       
      diplomats sometimes think, is to achieve small successes and build on   
      them. The New START was seen as such a small success, taking a          
      non-objectionable treaty of little relevance and effectively renewing   
      it. From here, other successes would follow. No one really thought      
      that this treaty mattered in its own right. But some thought that       
      building confidence right now sent the wrong signal to Moscow.          
                                                                              
      U.S. opposition was divided into two groups. One, particularly          
      Republicans, saw this as a political opportunity to embarrass the       
      president. Another argued, not particularly coherently, that using an   
      archaic issue as a foundation for building a relationship with Russia   
      allowed both sides to evade the serious issues dividing the two sides:  
      the role of Russia in the former Soviet Union, NATO and EU expansion,   
      Russia*s use of energy to dominate European neighbors, the future of    
      BMD against Iran, Russia*s role in the Middle East and so on.           
                                                                              
      Rather than building confidence between the two countries, a New START  
      would give the illusion of success while leaving fundamental issues to  
      fester. The counter-argument was that with this success others would    
      follow. The counter to that was that by spending energy on a New        
      START, the United States delayed and ignored more fundamental issues.   
      The debate is worth having, and both sides have a case, but the idea    
      that START in itself mattered is not part of that debate.               
                                                                              
      In the end, the issue boiled down to this. START was marginal at best.  
      But if President Barack Obama couldn*t deliver on START his             
      credibility with the Russians would collapse. It wasn*t so much that a  
      New START would build confidence as it was that a failure to pass a     
      New START would destroy confidence. It was on that basis that the U.S.  
      Senate approved the treaty. Its opponents argued that it left out       
      discussions of BMD and tactical nuclear weapons. Their more powerful    
      argument was that the United States just negotiated a slightly          
      modified version of a treaty that Ronald Reagan proposed a quarter      
      century ago and it had nothing to do with contemporary geopolitical     
      reality.                                                                
                                                                              
      Passage allowed Obama to dodge a bullet, but it leaves open a question  
      that he does not want to answer: What is American strategy toward       
      Russia? He has mimicked American strategy from a quarter century ago,   
      not defined what it will be.                                            
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 28, 2010 5:36:19 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Iran's Challenge: Keeping Domestic Stability While Managing
     International Pressures

      [IMG]                                                                   
                                                                              
      Tuesday, December 28, 2010     [IMG] STRATFOR.COM [IMG] Diary Archives  
                                                                              
           Iran's Challenge: Keeping Domestic Stability While Managing        
                             International Pressures                          
                                                                              
      Iranian Deputy Minister of Economy Mohammad Reza Farzin said on Monday  
      that fuel consumption across the country had dropped since the          
      government began implementing its plan to cut subsidies. Speaking to    
      AFP, Farzin explained that after nine days, gasoline consumption        
      dropped from 13.2 million to 12.1 million gallons a day. *We are        
      spending $100 billion in subsidies every year from a gross domestic     
      product of $400 billion. We have realized that low energy prices        
      cannot deliver social welfare. It can*t reduce poverty. We are          
      determined to use the resources for managing prices more efficiently,*  
      the deputy economy minister stated.                                     
                                                                              
      It is not surprising that for decades, Iran has dedicated nearly a      
      quarter of its gross domestic product to subsidize essentials. For any  
      Tehran-based government to be able to maintain central rule over the    
      large mountainous country, it must establish a complex political and    
      security system. Thus, mass unrest has been contained through a         
      massive security apparatus and with an extensive subsidy program.       
                                                                              
      What renders the subsidy program even more critical is that Iran is a   
      chronically poor country with a significantly non-homogenous            
      population, and the country has been under international sanctions for  
      more than three decades. This would explain the high cost of            
      maintaining domestic social placidity. Policymakers of the Persian      
      Shiite polity, however, have long been divided over the merits of       
      thwarting internal chaos at such a high cost.                           
                                                                              
      *The challenge for Iran is two-fold: decreasing foreign dependency on   
      gasoline imports * while containing a social backlash that could come   
      from slashing subsidies.*                                               
                                                                              
      Cutting subsidies has been on the policy agenda of successive           
      governments in the Islamic republic for at least two decades. Iran has  
      been dependent upon imports to meet 40 percent of its domestic          
      gasoline consumption needs. But it was not until last week that         
      President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad*s administration embarked upon the        
      first-ever serious effort to address a key vulnerability in the         
      Iranian system.                                                         
                                                                              
      Gasoline acquired at international market rates has been available to   
      the Iranian public for as low as 38 cents per gallon. The challenge     
      for Iran is two-fold: how to decrease dependency on gasoline imports,   
      especially in the wake of the latest round of sanctions, which have     
      made it more difficult to import fuel, while containing a social        
      backlash that could come from slashing subsidies. Ahmadinejad*s         
      government deals with this situation by increasing the price of         
      gasoline to curb domestic consumption while providing monthly cash      
      handouts as a way to avoid the domestic backlash.                       
                                                                              
      The hope is that this complex economic reform package will allow the    
      state to deal with the growing challenges of securing much-needed fuel  
      imports, sustain social placidity and free up resources that can be     
      allocated to other areas. The past 10 days is not enough to gauge the   
      effectiveness of the strategy, and the lack of transparency raises      
      questions about the authenticity of the data made available by Iranian  
      authorities. For now, the key is that Iran has embarked upon a measure  
      that is a major break with its past behavior.                           
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 28, 2010 8:16:31 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 9 - Russia Invades Georgia

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 9 - Russia Invades Georgia                  
                                                                              
      December 28, 2010 | 1322 GMT                                            
                                                                              
      Choosing the 10 most important geopolitical events of the past decade   
      is a challenge. But STRATFOR analysts took on the task, and after a     
      robust debate, they produced our Top 10 Most Important Geopolitical     
      Events of the Decade. We have teamed up with our partner,               
      DigitalGlobe, the world*s leading commercial satellite imagery          
      company, to provide compelling images illustrating each of these key    
      events.                                                                 
                                                                              
      Join us as we count down the Top 10, unveiling an event daily starting  
      Dec. 27 and culminating Jan. 5, when we reveal our selection for the    
      single most important event of the decade.                              
                                                                              
      Click the link below to see STRATFOR*s explanation of each event along  
      with a satellite image.                                                 
                                                                              
      Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 1 - The 9/11 Attacks                       
      (click here to view interactive map)                                    
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
      Not For Publication                                                     
      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 29, 2010 5:40:20 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: The Continuing U.S.-Pakistani Disconnect Over the Afghan War

      [IMG]                                                                   
                                                                              
      Wednesday, December 29, 2010   [IMG] STRATFOR.COM [IMG] Diary Archives  
                                                                              
           The Continuing U.S.-Pakistani Disconnect Over the Afghan War       
                                                                              
      A number of developments related to the complex dealings between the    
      United States and Pakistan over the war in Afghanistan took place       
      Tuesday. The day began with the head of the Pakistani army*s public     
      relations wing telling the Pakistani English daily Express Tribune      
      that the army*s preliminary plans to launch an offensive in a key       
      tribal region was delayed. The top Pakistani officer explained that     
      the delay of sending forces into North Waziristan was the consequence   
      of a resurgence of militant activity in other parts of the tribal       
      areas * the latest manifestation of two separate attacks over the       
      weekend in Mohmand and Bajaur agencies.                                 
                                                                              
      Since the recent strategy review by U.S. President Barack Obama*s       
      administration, Islamabad has come under increasing pressure from       
      Washington to expand the scope of its counterinsurgency offensive in    
      North Waziristan. It is the only agency (out of the seven that          
      constitute the Federally Administered Tribal Areas or FATA) that the    
      Pakistani government has not targeted as part of its 20-month-old       
      campaign against Taliban rebels and their transnational allies. North   
      Waziristan has also become the hub of jihadist forces of various        
      stripes, particularly Taliban forces engaged in the fight in            
      Afghanistan, especially so after the mid-2009 Pakistani-commenced       
      operations against militants in other parts of the FATA.                
                                                                              
      *Both the United States and Pakistan agree that there is to be a        
      negotiated settlement with the Afghan Taliban, but there is a huge      
      disagreement on how to go about getting to the negotiating table.*      
                                                                              
      In a separate Express Tribune report by Pakistan*s first                
      internationally affiliated daily * a partner of the International       
      Herald Tribune * unnamed military sources were quoted as saying that    
      senior military commanders decided to redeploy combat troops into the   
      Swat district of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province in the wake of a renewed   
      threat from Pakistani Taliban rebels. According to intelligence         
      reports, the Taliban rebel leaderships in Swat and the FATA, which had  
      escaped to Afghanistan*s eastern provinces of Kunar and Nuristan, were  
      now regrouping in Mohmand and Bajaur to stage a comeback in Swat.       
                                                                              
      This report provides a justification for the Pakistani argument that    
      it cannot expand its operations into North Waziristan * at least not    
      for a while. It also upends the American argument that Pakistani        
      territory along the Durand Line is a launch pad for Afghan Taliban      
      insurgents fighting Afghan and NATO troops in Afghanistan. In other     
      words, from the Pakistani view, while it is true that Pakistani soil    
      is being used by militants to stage attacks in Afghanistan, the         
      reverse is also true in that Taliban and al Qaeda forces waging war     
      against Islamabad enjoy safe havens in eastern Afghanistan.             
      Interestingly, on Tuesday, The New York Times published a story         
      quoting unnamed U.S. intelligence and military officials stating that   
      rival militant forces on both sides of the border had begun to          
      cooperate to enhance their respective cross-border operations.          
                                                                              
      On a related note, and in response to the U.S. strategy review,         
      Pakistan recently criticized the United States for demanding that       
      Islamabad prevent militants on its side of the border from staging      
      attacks in Afghanistan, while Washington-led forces with far more       
      superior capabilities were not able to seal the border from the Afghan  
      side. An American military commander responded Tuesday saying that it   
      was not possible for Western forces to seal the lengthy Afghan-border   
      and prevent militants from slipping in from the Pakistani side. Herein  
      lies the dilemma in that both the United States and Pakistan have       
      different priorities.                                                   
                                                                              
      As far as Washington is concerned, Islamabad should not limit itself    
      to action against Islamist militants waging war on Pakistani soil.      
      Conversely, the Pakistanis want the Americans to realize that they      
      can*t risk exacerbating the war in their country by going after forces  
      that are not waging war against Pakistan. Ultimately, both sides agree  
      that there is to be a negotiated settlement with the Afghan Taliban,    
      but there is a huge disagreement on how to go about getting to the      
      negotiating table.                                                      
                                                                              
      As this disagreement continues to play itself out, the idea of setting  
      up a Taliban office in Turkey surfaced last week around a summit-level  
      meeting in Istanbul involving the Turkish, Afghan and Pakistani         
      leaderships. While both Kabul and Islamabad welcomed the suggestion,    
      the United States is unlikely to seriously entertain the idea of talks  
      with the Taliban, at least not until after the end of 2011 due to the   
      U.S. surge campaign. That said, if there is to be a negotiated          
      settlement with the Taliban, the Afghan insurgent movement will need    
      to achieve international recognition as a legitimate Afghan national    
      political force and opening an office in a neutral country is a first   
      step in that direction. And until that happens, the U.S.-Pakistani      
      disconnect over the cross-border insurgency is likely to continue.      
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
      Not For Publication                                                     

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 29, 2010 8:18:28 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: A Week in the War: Afghanistan, Dec. 22-28, 2010

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     A Week in the War: Afghanistan, Dec. 22-28, 2010                         
                                                                              
      December 29, 2010 | 1230 GMT                                            
      A Week in the War: Afghanistan, Dec. 22-28, 2010                        
      STRATFOR                                                                
      STRATFOR BOOK                                                           
        * Afghanistan at the Crossroads: Insights on the Conflict             
      Related Special Topic Page                                              
        * The War in Afghanistan                                              
                                                                              
       Reflections on 2010                                                    
                                                                              
      The U.S.-led surge of American and allied forces into Afghanistan was   
      completed late this year. With it has come an aggressive pursuit of     
      the counterinsurgency strategy, the massing of International Security   
      Assistance Force (ISAF) troops in the Taliban*s heartland in the        
      southwest and an adjustment of the overall organization and             
      disposition of ISAF forces.                                             
                                                                              
      The commitment to strategy was emphasized when the commander of the     
      ISAF and U.S. Forces-Afghanistan, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, was          
      relieved and replaced by his superior, Gen. David Petraeus, then head   
      of U.S. Central Command. Petraeus is perhaps the pre-eminent advocate   
      and a key architect of the counterinsurgency strategy, and his          
      appointment was no doubt intended in part to convey that the personnel  
      change did not signal a change in strategy.                             
                                                                              
      While the Taliban have by no means been defeated, ISAF appears to have  
      a legitimate claim to some significant successes, at least in isolated  
      areas in Helmand and Kandahar provinces. The Taliban*s income from the  
      poppy crop appears to have been reduced and their ranks have taken a    
      hit from concerted targeting by special operations forces (though the   
      significance and impact of that hit remains a matter of debate).        
      Furthermore, areas like Nawa and Marjah are showing early if limited    
      signs of progress in terms of security and local support for the        
      Afghan government.                                                      
                                                                              
      A Week in the War: Afghanistan, Dec. 22-28, 2010                        
      (click here to enlarge image)                                           
                                                                              
      Still, questions of legitimacy and issues of corruption continue to     
      plague the Hamid Karzai regime. While eradicating corruption is not     
      realizable in Afghanistan in any sort of Western, developed-world       
      sense, Afghans continue to perceive the government as being             
      inordinately corrupt. Parliamentary elections this year did little to   
      allay concerns about the viability of Kabul as a U.S./NATO partner in   
      the counterinsurgency effort, much less as an entity capable of         
      effectively administering Afghanistan in the years ahead.               
                                                                              
      However, an Afghan High Council for Peace has been formed and both      
      Kabul and Washington appear to be getting behind it as the main effort  
      for orchestrating a negotiated settlement with the Taliban. While       
      little in the way of overt progress in negotiations was made this year  
      (there were indeed some embarrassments, such as when one negotiating    
      contact turned out to be an impostor), consolidating the process        
      behind a single entity can be thought of as an achievement of sorts.    
      After all, even now, with some 150,000 U.S. and allied troops in        
      country, neither the size nor the duration of the commitment of forces  
      is sufficient to actually defeat the Taliban. Any lasting solution      
      under the current strategy will ultimately require some form of         
      negotiated settlement with a significant portion of the Taliban.        
                                                                              
      No one on either side is under any illusion that the war will be over   
      in 2011, but an extended deadline is now implicit. At the NATO summit   
      in Lisbon in November, U.S. President Barack Obama formally announced   
      the commitment of U.S. and allied forces to Afghanistan until 2014. So  
      long as the White House sticks to the current strategy (as it appears   
      set to do in the coming year), hard fighting will continue.             
                                                                              
       The Campaign in 2011                                                   
                                                                              
      In a way, 2010 can be seen as a year of preparing for 2011. The         
      position of America and its allies in Afghanistan will never be         
      stronger than in 2011, when the surge will be at full strength and      
      only minor reductions can be expected before the year is out.           
      Everything is now in place for those forces to pursue the               
      counterinsurgency strategy in earnest. Whether the strategy can         
      achieve its larger objectives in terms of the security environment and  
      political accommodation is a separate question. Further tactical gains  
      can be expected, and while those gains are unlikely to be decisive,     
      they may offer insight into the prospect of continued success in the    
      years ahead.                                                            
                                                                              
      Indeed, both the ISAF and the Taliban claim to be sustaining combat     
      efforts, though the Taliban have gone so far (oddly) to admit that      
      their operations will ebb during the winter. This has always been the   
      case, but it is unusual for the Taliban to draw attention to it.        
      Indeed, STRATFOR doesn*t quite buy the Taliban quietude. Despite the    
      ISAF gains against the Taliban in 2010, it is hard to imagine that      
      such a strong and adept insurgency has been so rapidly reduced.         
                                                                              
      So in the coming year, as the spring thaw sets in, we will be watching  
      closely for a Taliban resurgence and a more concerted attempt to        
      reverse ISAF gains in 2010. At the same time, falling back in the face  
      of superior force is in keeping with classic guerrilla strategy, so     
      Taliban activity in areas where the ISAF presence is more limited and   
      areas where security is handed over to Afghan forces (likely to start   
      soon after the anticipated drawdown begins in July) will warrant close  
      scrutiny.                                                               
                                                                              
      Related Links                                                           
        * Obama*s Plan and the Key Battleground                               
        * The Afghanistan Campaign, Part 1: The U.S. Strategy                 
        * The Afghanistan Campaign, Part 2: The Taliban Strategy              
        * The Afghanistan Campaign, Part 3: The Pakistani Strategy            
        * The Afghanistan Campaign, Part 4: The View from Kabul               
                                                                              
      Meanwhile, ISAF pressure can be expected to remain in the Afghan        
      southwest. The question is how quickly gains there can be consolidated  
      and the extent to which temporary security can be translated into       
      lasting security provided by the Afghan government and ongoing          
      economic development provided by the United States and NATO.            
      Similarly, efforts at political accommodation and negotiation with the  
      Taliban are of central importance, especially in terms of an exit       
      strategy. It is hard to see a negotiated settlement being reached in    
      2011, but as with combat operations, the talks that take place in 2011  
      will likely offer considerable insight into prospects for success in    
      the years that follow.                                                  
                                                                              
      In all of this, Pakistan remains a critical factor. Tensions between    
      Washington and Islamabad are to be expected, but the United States      
      cannot wage war in Afghanistan without Pakistan, so it will look to     
      avoid further confrontations like the September cross-border incident   
      that resulted in a temporary closure of the border crossing over the    
      Khyber Pass at Torkham. But insurgent sanctuaries across the border in  
      Pakistan continue to be a problem for the ISAF war effort in            
      Afghanistan, and they cannot simply be ignored. Confrontation over      
      this issue is not necessarily avoidable.                                
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
      Not For Publication                                                     
      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 29, 2010 8:28:03 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 8 - Iran Emerges

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 8 - Iran Emerges                            
                                                                              
      December 29, 2010 | 1324 GMT                                            
                                                                              
      Choosing the 10 most important geopolitical events of the past decade   
      is a challenge. But STRATFOR analysts took on the task, and after a     
      robust debate, they produced our Top 10 Most Important Geopolitical     
      Events of the Decade. We have teamed up with our partner,               
      DigitalGlobe, the world*s leading commercial satellite imagery          
      company, to provide compelling images illustrating each of these key    
      events.                                                                 
                                                                              
      Join us as we count down the Top 10, unveiling an event daily starting  
      Dec. 27 and culminating Jan. 5, when we reveal our selection for the    
      single most important event of the decade.                              
                                                                              
      Click the link below to see STRATFOR*s explanation of each event along  
      with a satellite image.                                                 
                                                                              
      Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 9 - Russia Invades Georgia                 
      (click here to view interactive map)                                    
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
      Not For Publication                                                     
      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 29, 2010 1:28:25 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 29, 2010

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 29, 2010                                     
                                                                              
      December 29, 2010 | 1915 GMT                                            
                                                                              
      The Naval Update Map shows an approximation of the current locations    
      of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups        
      (ARGs), the keys to U.S. dominance of the world*s oceans. A CSG is      
      centered on an aircraft carrier, which projects U.S. naval and air      
      power and supports a carrier air wing (CVW). The CSG includes           
      significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three    
      amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU)        
      embarked. An MEU is built around a heavily reinforced and mobile        
      battalion of Marines.                                                   
                                                                              
      U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 29, 2010                                    
      (click here to enlarge image)                                           
                                                                              
       Carrier Strike Groups                                                  
                                                                              
        * The USS Carl Vinson with CVW 17 embarked is under way on a          
          deployment to the U.S. 7th and 5th fleet areas of responsibility    
          (AOR).                                                              
        * The USS Abraham Lincoln CSG with CVW 2 embarked is on a scheduled   
          deployment in the U.S. 5th Fleet AOR conducting maritime security   
          operations and theater security cooperation efforts.                
        * The USS John C. Stennis returned to its home port in Bremerton,     
          Wash., after completing sea trials as the final phase of a          
          six-month planned incremental availability in the Puget Sound       
          Naval Shipyard and Intermediate Maintenance Facility.               
                                                                              
       Amphibious Ready Groups/Marine Expeditionary Units                     
                                                                              
        * The USS Kearsarge ARG with the 26th MEU embarked is under way       
          supporting maritime security operations and theater security        
          cooperation efforts in the U.S. 5th Fleet AOR.                      
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
      Not For Publication                                                     
      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 29, 2010 2:48:29 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: China Security Memo: Dec. 29, 2010

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     China Security Memo: Dec. 29, 2010                                       
                                                                              
      December 29, 2010 | 1700 GMT                                            
      China Security Memo: Dec. 22, 2010                                      
                                                                              
       The Crossbow Bomber                                                    
                                                                              
      Employees of a gasoline station on the outskirts of Beijing alerted     
      police at 9:57 a.m. local time about a man in a white pickup            
      threatening them with a crossbow and improvised explosive devices. The  
      man arrived at the Xinanzhen Service Area, about 100 kilometers (about  
      62 miles) east of Beijing on the Jingshen expressway, for gasoline,     
      but refused to pay 290 yuan (about $44) for his gas. He claimed to be   
      a petitioner with no money; presumably, he was on his way to            
      government offices in Beijing. Station employees removed the keys from  
      his truck and blocked his exit, after which he retrieved a crossbow     
      from his truck and fired at least one bolt at the employees. The staff  
      left the keys and hid inside a nearby convenience store.                
                                                                              
      The man then pulled a red package out of his vehicle and threatened to  
      blow up the station before driving off in the direction of Beijing.     
      When he arrived at the Bailu tollbooth just outside central Beijing,    
      he told the toll collector he had no money, apparently seeking          
      sympathy by claiming to have grievances with authorities. The suspect   
      then drove through the barrier with police in pursuit.                  
                                                                              
      Police stopped him at the corner of Xidawang and Nanmofang roads in     
      Chaoyang district soon after he exited the expressway at about 11 a.m.  
      local time. A SWAT team also arrived, at which point a standoff began.  
      Police approached the vehicle, after which an officer broke one of its  
      windows with a hammer while two others pulled the suspect out of his    
      truck. Police reportedly seized two explosive devices, a crossbow and   
      several bolts.                                                          
                                                                              
      An anonymous source told Beijing News that the man was fleeing Tianjin  
      after committing a robbery, a more plausible explanation than his       
      claims to have been a petitioner. Armed robberies using crossbows are   
      not uncommon in China, where firearms are illegal and difficult to      
      acquire. The quick police response prevented any casualties, though     
      his failure to detonate his explosives when police approached could     
      indicate he was bluffing. Alternatively, he might have planned to use   
      the explosives for some other purpose that did not include suicide.     
                                                                              
       Rewards for Internet Informants                                        
                                                                              
      Isolated instances of local police offering rewards online for tips to  
      solve cases have emerged of late. The rewards have comprised credits    
      for China*s premier instant messaging client, QQ, or an equivalent      
      amount of cash.                                                         
                                                                              
      In November, police in Changzhou, Jiangsu province, offered 10,000      
      yuan or the equivalent in credits (QQ Coin) for information on an open  
      case. In December, police in Urumqi, Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous         
      Region, offered between 500 and 5,000 yuan for information on a case.   
      In the first instance, a netizen told police the suspect was his        
      friend, and later persuaded him to confess. (It is unclear if the man   
      accepted cash or QQ Coin.)                                              
                                                                              
      QQ is a very popular instant messaging program that claims to have      
      more than 100 million users online during peak periods. One yuan is     
      equivalent to one QQ Coin and can be spent on games, profile            
      enhancements, virtual gifts and mobile phone ringtones. But the         
      currency has expanded, and can now be used for real physical goods, as  
      well as for funding gambling and adult video chats, services that       
      would be illegal if using real currency. Speculators trade QQ Coin for  
      real money in fluctuating informal markets. The use of QQ Coin as a     
      reward underlines the role online currency now serves in Chinese        
      society beyond protecting online anonymity or being converted into      
      hard cash * instead, it is seen to have inherent value on its own.      
                                                                              
      The use of QQ Coin as a reward may prove to attract netizens and        
      encourage *human flesh search engines* to help police investigations.   
      Since there have only been two reported cases of these rewards, and     
      since there is not yet a national program, it is too early to judge     
      its effectiveness.                                                      
                                                                              
      Chinese officials have faced longstanding criticism for their           
      inability to protect informants. In many cases, authorities do not      
      accept anonymous tips. Instead they expect informants to identify       
      themselves when they make their report, especially when rewards have    
      been involved. This has deterred potential whistleblowers from          
      informing against their superiors out of fears of retribution. In rare  
      cases, such retribution has consisted of groups of enforcers sent to    
      physically harm the informant.                                          
                                                                              
      Outside the realm of official investigations, China has a very active   
      Internet community that enforces social norms. Called the *human flesh  
      search engine,* Chinese Internet users have investigated corrupt        
      officials or individuals who are perceived as an affront to social or   
      national interests, posting their personal information online. The      
      combined power of thousands of individuals has proven quite effective   
      in this regard, raising the question of why China*s police have not     
      tapped into this potential resource for help on cases. The answer,      
      perhaps, is that posting personal information online is illegal, and    
      that authorities may fear tapping into the human flesh search engine    
      might promote vigilante justice.                                        
                                                                              
      China Security Memo: Dec. 29, 2010                                      
      (click here to view interactive map                                     
                                                                              
         Dec. 22                                                              
                                                                              
        * Police and prosecutors in Guangzhou, Guangdong province, are        
          investigating a group of 12 individuals accused of a fraudulent     
          investment scheme involving gold. Beginning in 2004, the 12         
          reportedly set up a company in Guangdong province selling gold      
          investments. In 2007, they set up a second company in Inner         
          Mongolia. They promised returns of 8 percent to 30 percent to 978   
          investors since the company was established, defrauding victims of  
          140 million yuan (about $21.1 million). All 12 suspects have since  
          fled Guangzhou.                                                     
        * A group of 103 people discovered that the airline tickets they      
          purchased from the Dunhua Branch of Baishan International Travel    
          Agency in Jilin province were fake. The group planned to fly to     
          Hong Kong on Dec. 22, when they found out the tickets were          
          invalid. The tickets reportedly came from a woman named Gao who     
          worked at the travel office; police reportedly are investigating.   
        * Guangxi police arrested 15 individuals involved in transporting     
          37.5 kilograms (82.7 pounds) of heroin to Nanning from Vietnam in   
          November. Police also seized 7 million yuan in cash, 10 cars and    
          19 properties. The leader of the group reportedly was wanted        
          already for trafficking more than 3 kilograms of heroin to          
          Shenzhen in 2005.                                                   
        * A reporter based in Xinjiang Autonomous Region was nearly beaten    
          to death in Kuytun. Local police claimed the attack was the result  
          of a personal matter and not of his work as a journalist.           
          Reporters Without Borders, however, said his colleagues claimed he  
          was working on a sensitive story about housing demolition. Six      
          suspects have been detained in connection with the incident.        
        * Police in Guiyang, Guizhou province, announced they have rescued    
          151 children and 209 women from human-trafficking rings since       
          2008, breaking up 47 trafficking rings, punishing 450 people and    
          detaining another 81 suspects.                                      
                                                                              
         Dec. 23                                                              
                                                                              
        * Wu Yaxian, a former member of the standing committee of Chinese     
          People*s Political Consultative Conference from Lianjiang,          
          Guangdong province, was sentenced to death for his involvement in   
          organized crime. He was convicted of murder, robbery, causing       
          public disturbance, fraud, illegal gun possession, and tax          
          evasion, all while leading an organized crime group. During the 10  
          years he led the gang, he reportedly made 300 million yuan.         
                                                                              
         Dec. 24                                                              
                                                                              
        * A former mayor of Puyang, Henan province, was sentenced to 11       
          years in prison for accepting bribes. The woman accepted 1.7        
          million yuan in bribes between 2000 and 2008 when she held          
          positions that include director of the Finance Bureau, vice mayor   
          and mayor. She was given a light sentence because she returned the  
          money.                                                              
        * A group of four individuals was sentenced to between five and none  
          years in jail for counterfeiting bankcards to steal 520,000 yuan    
          in Liuzhou, Guangxi province. The group installed ATM *skimmers*    
          to steal card information.                                          
                                                                              
         Dec. 26                                                              
                                                                              
        * Six people were detained in Changli, Hebei province, after Chinese  
          authorities discovered wine produced with several chemical          
          additives. A state television investigation revealed that local     
          wineries were including sugar water, coloring agents and            
          artificial flavorings in their wine. They also falsely used famous  
          brand names. The chemicals could cause cardiac problems and         
          headaches and may be carcinogenic. Thirty wineries were also shut   
          down in connection with the investigation.                          
        * Memetjan Abdulla, a journalist for China National Radio, was        
          sentenced to life in prison for broadcasting information about the  
          July 2009 Urumqi riots, according to the World Uighur Congress.     
          The exiled group claimed the sentencing occurred in April in a      
          closed-door trial. Abdulla was arrested after he translated a call  
          by the World Uighur Congress to protest beating deaths in Urumqi;   
          he was subsequently charged with inciting the riots.                
        * Beijing police blocked petitioners from reaching the Chairman Mao   
          Zedong Memorial Hall from the Beijing central train station on the  
          anniversary of Mao*s birthday. Riot police were used to prevent as  
          many as a thousand marchers from reaching Tiananmen Square.         
          Tourists and others were allowed to enter the Memorial Hall after   
          passing through security checkpoints.                               
                                                                              
         Dec. 27                                                              
                                                                              
        * Two drug traffickers were sentenced to death for smuggling 48.1     
          kilograms of methamphetamine from Hong Kong to Shenzhen, Guangdong  
          province.                                                           
        * Between 15 and 30 guards were placed outside the residential        
          complex of Zhao Lianhai, the activist who exposed                   
          melamine-contaminated milk products in 2008. Hong Kong deputies to  
          the National People*s Congress suggested he will be released soon   
          for medical reasons. Zhao was sentenced to two and a half years in  
          prison on Nov. 10 for *provoking quarrels and making trouble*       
          during his campaign for victims of the melamine scandal.            
        * A woman was arrested for inciting four men to steal more than 40    
          cars over the last three years in Chengdu, Sichuan province. All    
          four men had an affair with the woman, who planned the thefts for   
          fun. All five have been arrested.                                   
                                                                              
         Dec. 28                                                              
                                                                              
        * Police from Beijing and Chongqing and Guangdong province, along     
          with counterparts from Taiwan and the Philippines, shut down a      
          criminal network based in Taiwan that operated a fraud scheme via   
          telephone. The suspects would call Chinese citizens from overseas   
          and ask them to open new bank accounts and deposit money into       
          them. Police arrested 178 suspects for stealing the deposits. They  
          froze 118 million yuan and seized more than 8,000 bankcards, four   
          guns, 43 computers, 200 phones and 11 cars.                         
        * Zijin Mining Group apologized and donated 50 million yuan to        
          rebuild the area damaged by a dam breach on their property in       
          September in Xinyi, Jiangsu province.                               
        * Authorities in Yueqing, Zhejiang province, issued a second press    
          statement saying that the death of a local village head, Qian       
          Yunhui, was due to a traffic accident. The village leader had been  
          leading complaints against a real estate redevelopment project      
          since 2004. A local power company acquired 150 hectares (about 370  
          acres) of land without compensating locals, according to local      
          bloggers. They believe Qian died after being forced under a truck   
          and repeatedly run over.                                            
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 29, 2010 3:39:04 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Dispatch: Suspected Terrorists Arrested in Denmark

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Dispatch: Suspected Terrorists Arrested in Denmark                       
                                                                              
      December 29, 2010 | 2130 GMT                                            
      Click on image below to watch video:                                    
      [IMG]                                                                   
                                                                              
      Vice President of Tactical Intelligence Scott Stewart explains why a    
      thwarted terrorism plot in Denmark * in which five suspected            
      terrorists were arrested * appears to be a more credible threat than    
      other recent terrorism plots.                                           
                                                                              
      Editor*s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition       
      technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete         
      accuracy.                                                               
                                                                              
      Authorities in Denmark and Sweden arrested five men today in            
      connection with a plot to attack a Danish newspaper office in           
      Copenhagen that was involved in the Muhammad cartoon controversy.       
      Unlike some other recent cases in Europe involving the arrest of        
      terrorism suspects, this case appears to be the real deal.              
                                                                              
      Although we still have a lot of details unavailable to us concerning    
      this case, several of those that have surfaced so far indicate to us    
      that this cell was sincere, that it was dedicated and that is was the   
      real deal.                                                              
                                                                              
      Probably the first indicator that leaps out to us is that this group    
      was looking at a reasonable and reachable target. They were going to    
      attack this newspaper office * it wasn*t the fact that they were        
      looking to attack every target in Copenhagen or Denmark, or even hard   
      targets that would be difficult to attack. Recently we saw a cell       
      taken down in the United Kingdom last week. That group of plotters was  
      looking to hit everything in London, including hard targets like the    
      U.S. Embassy. When we see plots like that, it indicates to us that      
      those conducting them are inexperienced, and they are more fanciful     
      than real threats. In addition to the fact that the target was          
      reasonable, the means of attack was also reasonable and achievable.     
      They weren*t looking at some grandiose plot involving nuclear weapons   
      or large explosive devices. They were going to conduct a simple armed   
      assault on the newspaper office with the intent of killing the largest  
      number of people possible.                                              
                                                                              
      Second, the cell in Denmark had already obtained weapons to conduct     
      their attack and had them in place, and three of the members had        
      traveled from Sweden to Denmark in pursuit of the plot. So, this plot   
      had gone beyond the theoretical stage, and the plotters had gotten to   
      the stage of executing it. We saw a plot last week in The Netherlands   
      where a group of Somalis was arrested, and that plot allegedly          
      involved the desire of the Somalis to shoot down Danish helicopters.    
      The only problem for them is that they didn*t have any missiles to      
      shoot down the helicopters. Again, the plot wasn*t very far along and   
      the people involved in it were more amateurish (whereas the group in    
      Denmark appears to have not only obtained the weapons, but              
      pre-positioned men to carry out the attack).                            
                                                                              
      Third, like past cases, including the case involving American David     
      Headley, who went to Copenhagen to conduct surveillance of the          
      Jyllands-Posten office, and an attack last year in January in which a   
      Somali had attacked the home of Danish cartoonist Kurt Westergaard      
      armed with an axe and a knife, this case shows us that,                 
      Jyllands-Posten office remains a very serious target of terrorists.     
                                                                              
      As al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula said in 2010, they were not going  
      to allow the dust to settle on the Muhammad cartoon controversy, and    
      that those involved in the cartoons were going to continue to be        
      targeted. This case is evidence that those threats were true.           
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 30, 2010 4:04:00 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Security Weekly : Separating Terror from Terrorism

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Separating Terror from Terrorism                                         
                                                                              
      December 30, 2010                                                       
                                                                              
      Mexico and the Cartel Wars in 2010                                      
                                                                              
      By Scott Stewart                                                        
                                                                              
      On Dec. 15, the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) sent  
      a joint bulletin to state and local law enforcement agencies            
      expressing their concern that terrorists may attack a large public      
      gathering in a major U.S. metropolitan area during the 2010 holiday     
      season. That concern was echoed by contacts at the FBI and elsewhere    
      who told STRATFOR they were almost certain there was going to be a      
      terrorist attack launched against the United States over Christmas.     
                                                                              
      Certainly, attacks during the December holiday season are not unusual.  
      There is a history of such attacks, from the bombing of Pan Am Flight   
      103 on Dec. 21, 1988, and the thwarted millennium attacks in December   
      1999 and January 2000 to the post-9/11 airliner attacks by shoe bomber  
      Richard Reid on Dec. 22, 2001, and by underwear bomber Umar Farouk      
      Abdulmutallab on Dec. 25, 2009. Some of these plots have even stemmed   
      from the grassroots. In December 2006, Derrick Shareef was arrested     
      while planning an attack he hoped to launch against an Illinois         
      shopping mall on Dec. 22.                                               
                                                                              
      Mass gatherings in large metropolitan areas have also been repeatedly   
      targeted by jihadist groups and lone wolves. In addition to past        
      attacks and plots directed against the subway systems in major cities   
      such as Madrid, London, New York and Washington, 2010 saw failed        
      attacks against the crowds in New York*s Times Square on May 1 and in   
      Pioneer Courthouse Square in downtown Portland, Ore., on Nov. 26.       
                                                                              
      With this history, it is understandable that the FBI and the DHS would  
      be concerned about such an attack this year and issue a warning to      
      local and state law enforcement agencies in the United States. This     
      American warning also comes on the heels of similar alerts in Europe,   
      warnings punctuated by the Dec. 11 suicide attack in Stockholm.         
                                                                              
      So far, the 2010 holiday season has been free from terrorist attacks,   
      but as evidenced by all the warnings and concern, this season has not   
      been free from the fear of such attacks, the psychological impact       
      known as *terror.* In light of these recent developments, it seems      
      appropriate discuss the closely related phenomena of terrorism and      
      terror.                                                                 
                                                                              
       Propaganda of the Deed                                                 
                                                                              
      Nineteenth-century anarchists promoted what they called the             
      *propaganda of the deed,* that is, the use of violence as a symbolic    
      action to make a larger point, such as inspiring the masses to          
      undertake revolutionary action. In the late 1960s and early 1970s,      
      modern terrorist organizations began to conduct operations designed to  
      serve as terrorist theater, an undertaking greatly aided by the advent  
      and spread of broadcast media. Examples of attacks designed to grab     
      international media attention are the September 1972 kidnapping and     
      murder of Israeli athletes at the Munich Olympics and the December      
      1975 raid on OPEC headquarters in Vienna. Aircraft hijackings followed  
      suit, changing from relatively brief endeavors to long, drawn-out and   
      dramatic media events often spanning multiple continents.               
                                                                              
      Today, the proliferation of 24-hour television news networks and the    
      Internet have allowed the media to broadcast such attacks live and in   
      their entirety. This development allowed vast numbers of people to      
      watch live as the World Trade Center towers collapsed on Sept. 11,      
      2001, and as teams of gunmen ran amok in Mumbai in November 2008.       
                                                                              
      This exposure not only allows people to be informed about unfolding     
      events, it also permits them to become secondary victims of the         
      violence they have watched unfold before them. As the word indicates,   
      the intent of *terrorism* is to create terror in a targeted audience,   
      and the media allow that audience to become far larger than just those  
      in the immediate vicinity of a terrorist attack. I am not a             
      psychologist, but even I can understand that on 9/11, watching the      
      second aircraft strike the South Tower, seeing people leap to their     
      deaths from the windows of the World Trade Center Towers in order to    
      escape the ensuing fire and then watching the towers collapse live on   
      television had a profound impact on many people. A large portion of     
      the United State was, in effect, victimized, as were a large number of  
      people living abroad, judging from the statements of foreign citizens   
      and leaders in the wake of 9/11 that *We are all Americans.*            
                                                                              
      During that time, people across the globe became fearful, and almost    
      everyone was certain that spectacular attacks beyond those involving    
      the four aircraft hijacked that morning were inevitable * clearly,      
      many people were shaken to their core by the attacks. A similar,        
      though smaller, impact was seen in the wake of the Mumbai attacks.      
      People across India were fearful of being attacked by teams of          
      Lashkar-e-Taiba gunmen, and concern spread around the world about       
      Mumbai-style terrorism. Indeed, this concern was so great that we felt  
      compelled to write an analysis emphasizing that the tactics employed    
      in Mumbai were not new and that, while such operations could kill       
      people, the approach would be less successful in the United States and  
      Europe than it was in Mumbai.                                           
                                                                              
       Terror Magnifiers                                                      
                                                                              
      These theatrical attacks have a strange hold over the human             
      imagination and can create a unique sense of terror that dwarfs the     
      normal reaction to natural disasters that are many times greater in     
      magnitude. For example, in the 2004 Asian tsunami, more than 227,000    
      people died, while fewer than 3,000 people died on 9/11. Yet the 9/11   
      attacks produced not only a sense of terror but also a geopolitical     
      reaction that has exerted a profound and unparalleled impact upon       
      world events over the past decade. Terrorism clearly can have a         
      powerful impact on the human psyche * so much so that even the threat   
      of a potential attack can cause fear and apprehension, as seen by the   
      reaction to the recent spate of warnings about attacks occurring over   
      the holidays.                                                           
                                                                              
      As noted above, the media serve as a magnifier of this anxiety and      
      terror. Television news, whether broadcast on the airwaves or over the  
      Internet, allows people to remotely and vicariously experience a        
      terrorist event, and this is reinforced by the print media. While part  
      of this magnification is due merely to the nature of television as a    
      medium and the 24-hour news cycle, bad reporting and misunderstanding   
      can also help build hype and terror. For example, when Mexican drug     
      cartels began placing small explosive devices in vehicles in Ciudad     
      Juarez and Ciudad Victoria this past year, the media hysterically       
      reported that the cartels were using car bombs. Clearly, the            
      journalists failed to appreciate the significant tactical and           
      operational differences between a small bomb placed in a car and the    
      far larger and more deadly vehicle-borne explosive device.              
                                                                              
      The traditional news media are not alone in the role of terror          
      magnifier. The Internet has also become an increasingly effective       
      conduit for panic and alarm. From breathless (and false) claims in      
      2005 that al Qaeda had pre-positioned nuclear weapons in the United     
      States and was preparing to attack nine U.S. cities and kill 4 million  
      Americans in an operation called *American Hiroshima* to claims in      
      2010 that Mexican drug cartels were still smuggling nuclear weapons     
      for Osama bin Laden, a great deal of fearmongering can spread over the  
      Internet. Website operators who earn advertising revenue based on the   
      number of unique visitors who read the stories featured on their sites  
      have an obvious financial incentive for publishing outlandish and       
      startling terrorism claims. The Internet also has produced a wide       
      array of other startling revelations, including the oft-recycled        
      e-mail chain stating that an Israeli counterterrorism expert has        
      predicted al Qaeda will attack six, seven or eight U.S. cities          
      simultaneously *within the next 90 days.* This e-mail was first         
      circulated in 2005 and has been periodically re-circulated over the     
      past five years. Although it is an old, false prediction, it still      
      creates fear every time it is circulated.                               
                                                                              
      Sometimes a government can act as a terror magnifier. Whether it is     
      the American DHS raising the threat level to red or the head of the     
      French internal intelligence service stating that the threat of         
      terrorism in that country has never been higher, such warnings can      
      produce widespread public concern. As we*ve noted elsewhere, there are  
      a number of reasons for such warnings, from trying to pre-empt a        
      terrorist attack when there is incomplete intelligence to a genuine     
      concern for the safety of citizens in the face of a known threat to     
      less altruistic motives such as political gain or bureaucratic          
      maneuvering (when an agency wants to protect itself from blame in case  
      there is an attack). As seen by the public reaction to the many         
      warnings in the wake of 9/11, including recommendations that citizens   
      purchase plastic sheeting and duct tape to protect themselves from      
      chemical and biological attack, such warnings can produce immediate     
      panic, although, over time, as threats and warnings prove to be         
      unfounded, this panic can turn into threat fatigue.                     
                                                                              
      Those seeking to terrorize can and do use these magnifiers to produce   
      terror without having to go to the trouble of conducting attacks. The   
      empty threats made by bin Laden and his inner circle that they were     
      preparing an attack larger than 9/11 * threats propagated by the        
      Internet, picked up by the media and then reacted to by governments *   
      are prime historical examples of this.                                  
                                                                              
      In recent weeks, we saw a case where panic was caused by a similar      
      confluence of events. In October, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula     
      (AQAP) issued the second edition of Inspire, its English-language       
      magazine. As we discussed in our analysis of the magazine, its Open     
      Source Jihad section pointed out a number of ways that attacks could    
      be conducted by grassroots jihadists living in the West. In addition    
      to the suggestion that an attacker could weld butcher knives onto the   
      bumper of a pickup truck and drive it through a crowd, or use a gun as  
      attackers did in Little Rock and at Fort Hood, another method briefly   
      mentioned was that grassroots operatives could use ricin or cyanide in  
      attacks. In response, the DHS decided to investigate further and even   
      went to the trouble of briefing corporate security officers from the    
      hotel and restaurant industries on the potential threat. CBS news       
      picked up the story and ran an exclusive report compete with a scary    
      poison logo superimposed over photos of a hotel, a dinner buffet and    
      an American flag. The report made no mention of the fact that the AQAP  
      article paid far less attention to the ricin and cyanide suggestion     
      than it did to what it called the *ultimate mowing machine,* the        
      pickup with butcher knives, or even the more practical * and far more   
      likely * armed assault.                                                 
                                                                              
      This was a prime example of terror magnifiers working with AQAP to      
      produce fear.                                                           
                                                                              
       Separation                                                             
                                                                              
      Groups such as al Qaeda clearly recognize the difference between        
      terrorist attacks and terror. This is seen not only in the use of       
      empty threats to sow terror but also in the way terrorist groups claim  
      success for failed attacks. For example, AQAP declared the failed       
      Christmas Day 2009 *underwear* bombing to be a success due to the       
      effect it had on the air-transportation system. In a special edition    
      of Inspire magazine published in November following the failed attack   
      against cargo aircraft, AQAP trumpeted the operation as a success,      
      citing the fear, disruption and expense that resulted. AQAP claimed     
      the cargo bomb plot and the Christmas Day plot were part of what it     
      called *Operation Hemorrhage,* an effort to cause economic damage and   
      fear and not necessarily kill large numbers of people.                  
                                                                              
      As we*ve noted before, practitioners of terrorism lose a great deal of  
      their ability to create terror if the people they are trying to         
      terrorize adopt the proper mindset. A critical part of this mindset is  
      placing terrorism in perspective. Terrorist attacks are going to        
      continue to happen because there are a wide variety of militant groups  
      and individuals who seek to use violence as a means of influencing a    
      government * either their own or someone else*s.                        
                                                                              
      There have been several waves of terrorism over the past century, but   
      it has been a fairly constant phenomenon, especially over the past few  
      decades. While the flavors of terror may vary from Marxist and          
      nationalist strains to Shiite Islamist to jihadist, it is certain that  
      even if al Qaeda and its jihadist spawn were somehow magically          
      eradicated tomorrow, the problem of terrorism would persist.            
                                                                              
      Terrorist attacks are also relatively easy to conduct, especially if    
      the assailant is not concerned about escaping after the attack. As      
      AQAP has noted in its Inspire magazine, a determined person can         
      conduct attacks using a variety of simple weapons, from a pickup to a   
      knife, axe or gun. And while the authorities in the United States and   
      elsewhere have been quite successful in foiling attacks over the past   
      couple of years, there are a large number of vulnerable targets in the  
      open societies of the West, and Western governments simply do not have  
      the resources to protect everything * not even authoritarian police     
      states can protect everything. This all means that some terrorist       
      attacks will invariably succeed.                                        
                                                                              
      How the media, governments and populations respond to those successful  
      strikes will shape the way that the attackers gauge their success.      
      Obviously, the 9/11 attacks, which caused the United States to invade   
      Afghanistan (and arguably Iraq) were far more successful than bin       
      Laden and company could ever have hoped. The London bombings on July    
      7, 2005, where the British went back to work as unusual the next day,   
      were seen as less successful.                                           
                                                                              
      In the final analysis, the world is a dangerous place. Everyone is      
      going to die, and some people are certain to die in a manner that is    
      brutal or painful. In 2001, more than 42,000 people died from car       
      crashes in the United States and hundreds of thousands of Americans     
      died from heart disease and cancer. The 9/11 attacks were the           
      bloodiest terrorist attacks in world history, and yet even those        
      historic attacks resulted in the deaths of fewer than 3,000 people, a   
      number that pales in comparison to deaths by other causes. This is in   
      no way meant to trivialize those who died on 9/11, or the loss their    
      families suffered, but merely to point out that lots of people die      
      every day and that their families are affected, too.                    
                                                                              
      If the public will take a cue from groups like AQAP, it too can         
      separate terrorism from terror. Recognizing that terrorist attacks,     
      like car crashes and cancer and natural disasters, are a part of the    
      human condition permits individuals and families to practice            
      situational awareness and take prudent measures to prepare for such     
      contingencies without becoming vicarious victims. This separation will  
      help deny the practitioners of terrorism and terror the ability to      
      magnify their reach and power.                                          
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 30, 2010 5:23:20 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Russian Influence and the Changing Baltic Winds

      [IMG]                                                                   
                                                                              
      Wednesday, December 29, 2010   [IMG] STRATFOR.COM [IMG] Diary Archives  
                                                                              
                 Russian Influence and the Changing Baltic Winds              
                                                                              
      When asked whether he preferred building a rail project westward to     
      Europe or eastward to Russia, Latvian Prime Minister Valdis             
      Dombrovskis on Wednesday said the latter option * a railroad to Moscow  
      * would be more justifiable to Latvia. Dombrovskis was careful to add   
      that the decision would be made based on which option was more          
      economically viable, but he said neither project * the high-speed rail  
      to Europe known as *Rail Baltica* or a high-speed rail from Riga to     
      Russia * would hold priority until a thorough economic analysis is      
      conducted. While it seems that the initial statement favoring Russia    
      is relatively mild and reasonable, it is a subtle yet indicative        
      representation of the changing winds in the Baltics.                    
                                                                              
      The Baltic region, consisting of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania, is      
      traditionally the most pro-Western and anti-Russian of the former       
      Soviet states. They were the most resistant to Russian rule during the  
      Soviet era, and * not surprisingly * the first of the republics to      
      declare independence from Moscow in the early 1990s. They are also the  
      only former Soviet republics that are officially part of the Western    
      alliance structure, holding membership into mainstay institutions like  
      NATO and the European Union, to which they acceded in 2004 at a low     
      point in Russia*s geopolitical power. This was a harsh blow to Moscow,  
      as it not only placed territory that is practically within earshot of   
      St. Petersburg into the political and economic system of the West, but  
      combined this with the military protection of the United States.        
                                                                              
      As such, over the past two decades, and especially since 2004, Russia   
      had taken an aggressive stance toward the three Baltic countries.       
      Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania depend on Russia entirely for their       
      natural gas supplies, so Moscow would frequently cut off the pipeline   
      when it needed to prove a point. Russia also engaged in cyberattacks    
      in Estonia in 2007 and used its ethnic Russian populations,             
      particularly in Estonia and Latvia where this demographic represents    
      more than a quarter of each country*s population, to put pressure on    
      the respective governments whenever Moscow felt the need to do so.      
      Russia also simulated an invasion of the Baltics when it conducted the  
      Zapad military exercises with Belarus.                                  
                                                                              
      *The way that Russia interacts with and attempts to influence the       
      Baltic region has taken on a much more complex dynamic**                
                                                                              
      But Moscow has realized that its unilateral approach of hostility       
      toward the Baltics didn*t give Russia what it wanted * control.         
      Instead, it further increased the anti-Russian sentiments in these      
      states. In the past few months Russia has adopted a new, more           
      multi-dimensional approach toward the Baltic states.                    
                                                                              
      Russia boosted ties to Latvia via the Harmony Center coalition, the     
      leading opposition group that finds its platform not only as a          
      pro-Russian party, but also * and perhaps even more so following the    
      global financial crisis that was felt particularly hard in the Baltics  
      * on economic issues. At the same time, Russia has struck various       
      economic deals with the old and new ruling coalitions in Latvia in      
      strategic sectors such as energy ports, railways and pipelines. This    
      seems to have softened Latvia*s typically negative reaction to all      
      things Russian, with Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks recently    
      saying that France*s sale of Mistral warships to Russia does not        
      represent a real threat to national security. It isn*t that the         
      Latvian government is becoming pro-Russian, but rather that it has      
      realized that it is easier to cooperate with Russia than fight against  
      it.                                                                     
                                                                              
      While Russia has been successful in Latvia, its new strategy is just    
      starting to show its effects in Estonia. Estonia*s leading pro-Russian  
      political figure, Tallinn Mayor Edgar Savisaar, is embroiled in a       
      political controversy due to his allegedly being an *agent of           
      influence* of Russia, and this has had only a marginal effect on his    
      party*s popularity. Russia is also attempting to buy up economic        
      pieces in Estonia * though so far not as much as in Latvia.             
                                                                              
      The third Baltic state, Lithuania, which at one point was the most      
      relaxed Baltic nation toward Moscow due to the fact that it does not    
      share a border with Russia and had Estonia and Latvia as buffers,       
      seems to have flipped this position now that Riga, and to a lesser      
      extent Tallinn, have a thawing of sorts with Moscow. Lithuania has      
      spoken vociferously against the Mistral deal, has been blocking         
      Russia*s attempt to economically move in, and the Lithuanian            
      parliament has set up a working group to re-investigate Russian crimes  
      in Lithuania shortly after the latter declared independence in 1991.    
                                                                              
      But even as Russia attempts this new strategy, it is not only offering  
      carrots; Moscow continues to wield sticks, albeit indirectly. Russia    
      is moving 8,000 troops near St. Petersburg to the border with the       
      Baltics as a reminder that the Russian military remains a force to be   
      reckoned. Russia is also, in tandem with Germany, continuing to         
      construct the Nordstream pipeline, which circumvents Russia*s energy    
      supplies around the Baltics, a sign of growing political and economic   
      coordination between two powerful nations that flank the Baltic         
      countries.                                                              
                                                                              
      So at this point, Russia*s relations with the Baltic states continue    
      to be a mixed bag. It isn*t that Russia is trying to control these      
      three states to pull them out of Western alliances and back into some   
      sort of new Soviet-like union. Russia is just attempting to make sure   
      that Western influence is easily containable and controllable in the    
      three states that are on Russia*s most vulnerable geographic border.    
      The way that Russia interacts with and attempts to influence this       
      region has taken on a much more complex dynamic that has created the    
      air of change in attitude in the Baltic states toward Moscow.           
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 30, 2010 7:31:03 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 7 - NATO Expands

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 7 - NATO Expands                            
                                                                              
      December 30, 2010 | 1320 GMT                                            
                                                                              
      Choosing the 10 most important geopolitical events of the past decade   
      is a challenge. But STRATFOR analysts took on the task, and after a     
      robust debate, they produced our Top 10 Most Important Geopolitical     
      Events of the Decade. We have teamed up with our partner,               
      DigitalGlobe, the world*s leading commercial satellite imagery          
      company, to provide compelling images illustrating each of these key    
      events.                                                                 
                                                                              
      Join us as we count down the Top 10, unveiling an event daily starting  
      Dec. 27 and culminating Jan. 5, when we reveal our selection for the    
      single most important event of the decade.                              
                                                                              
      Click the link below to see STRATFOR*s explanation of each event along  
      with a satellite image.                                                 
                                                                              
      Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 9 - Russia Invades Georgia                 
      (click here to view interactive map)                                    
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
      Not For Publication                                                     
      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 30, 2010 8:05:49 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Southern Sudan's Referendum: Khartoum Changes its Tone

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Southern Sudan's Referendum: Khartoum Changes its Tone                   
                                                                              
      December 30, 2010 | 1223 GMT                                            
      Southern Sudan's Referendum: Khartoum Changes its Tone                  
      ASHRAF SHAZLY/AFP/Getty Images                                          
      Sudanese President Omar al Bashir speaks in Khartoum in July            
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      The tone of the Sudanese government*s rhetoric concerning Southern      
      Sudan*s upcoming referendum has shifted, indicating that Khartoum has   
      accepted the eventuality of Southern Sudanese independence. Though      
      most northerners do not want the south to secede, the north has begun   
      planning for southern independence * and, despite many outsiders*       
      expectations, war is not necessarily likely. Northern Sudanese          
      opposition parties are using the referendum as an opportunity to push   
      for the formation of a new interim government, a new constitution and   
      for fresh elections, but the ruling party intends to serve its full     
      term and maintain control for years to come.                            
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      Sudan*s ruling National Congress Party (NCP) has demonstrated a         
      noticeable shift in rhetoric over how it intends to react should        
      Southern Sudan vote for independence in a referendum scheduled for      
      Jan. 9. No longer threatening to force a delay to the vote, or even to  
      refuse recognition of the results, Khartoum now appears resigned to     
      the inevitability of a new state arising in the south. This does not    
      mean that tensions between the north and south will dissipate           
      suddenly. The breakup of the country will not be smooth, and there      
      will likely be moments where it appears that war could erupt. But       
      Khartoum is not preparing for a fight as its first recourse; rather     
      its focus will be on achieving two main objectives in the months        
      ahead: ensuring it obtains a favorable new oil-revenue sharing          
      agreement with the south, and staving off a looming political crisis    
      in what will remain of Sudan.                                           
                                                                              
      Voting in the referendum will occur from Jan. 9-15, but independence    
      cannot legally become official until July, when the Comprehensive       
      Peace Agreement * the document that ended the latest civil war          
      (1983-2005) * expires. This is also when Sudan*s interim constitution   
      will have to be amended to account for the departure of the south,      
      assuming a majority of southerners vote to secede. Between the          
      referendum and July, the north and south will have to come to terms on  
      a new oil-revenue sharing agreement to replace the one that has been    
      in place since 2005, which gives Khartoum roughly half of all oil       
      revenues from crude pumped in Southern Sudan.                           
                                                                              
      There is a natural inclination that the oil issue alone will lead to    
      war if Southern Sudan secedes, as most of Sudan*s oil comes from the    
      south. However, Sudan*s geography and the location of its oil           
      infrastructure give Khartoum enormous leverage. Southern Sudan is       
      landlocked, and the only export route for its crude oil is a pipeline   
      network that goes through the north. Discussions about building an      
      alternative network through Kenya have yet to lead to anything          
      tangible, and any real alternative is a minimum of three years off.     
      The south certainly maintains the option of trying to sabotage its own  
      production should the north refuse to substantially increase the share  
      of oil revenue that goes to Juba, but this would hurt them more than    
      the north. Khartoum is aware of all of this.                            
                                                                              
      Southern Sudan's Referendum: Khartoum Changes its Tone                  
      (click here to enlarge image)                                           
                                                                              
      Politically speaking, southern secession has been more difficult for    
      the north to accept, as is the case whenever any country loses a        
      significant portion of its territory. Khartoum has repeatedly           
      threatened war if issues such as border demarcations, citizenship,      
      international debt obligations and the status of the Abyei region are   
      not settled before the referendum, and also sought to find ways to      
      delay the Southern Sudanese vote. These issues remain unresolved, yet   
      there are now signs from several leading NCP figures that Khartoum has  
      accepted that not only will the vote take place on time, but also that  
      Southern Sudan will break away:                                         
                                                                              
        * On Dec. 16, state-run media quoted presidential adviser and NCP     
          Deputy Chairman Nafie Ali Nafie as acknowledging *the failure of    
          all the efforts to maintain the unity of Sudan.* Nafie reportedly   
          said, *We shall accept the reality and must not deceive ourselves   
          and stick to dreams.*                                               
        * Sudanese Foreign Minister Ali Ahmed Karti said Dec. 23 that *even   
          if South Sudan votes for its independence in the referendum, we     
          are interested in creating two viable responsible states that       
          would honor their international obligations. We want cooperation    
          to develop between them and all of the issues to be resolved. We    
          do not want any conflict to exist between our two countries.*       
        * Sudanese President Omar al Bashir said Dec. 28 that he would be     
          *the first to recognize the south* if it chose independence,        
          referring to southerners repeatedly as brothers, and promising to   
          help them *build their state* regardless of the outcome of the      
          referendum.                                                         
                                                                              
      Bashir has also specifically addressed the oil issue. During a Dec. 19  
      rally in al-Qadarif state, he said that Southern Sudan *is part of our  
      body, but (its secession) is not the end of the world.* He then         
      reminded the crowd that the Sudanese oil industry is still relatively   
      new (Sudan only began exporting crude in 1999), saying, *People said    
      that the south*s oil will go, [but] how many years has the south*s oil  
      been there? Before the oil, were we not living?* Furthermore, Bashir    
      emphasized the potential for the north to develop its own oil           
      industry, which is currently thought to produce between                 
      100,000-115,000 barrels per day (bpd) out of Sudan*s total estimated    
      production of 475,000-500,000 bpd. Playing up the potential for         
      northern Sudanese oil production (Limited Open Access) has been a       
      recent strategy of Khartoum*s to allay public concerns that southern    
      secession would lead to economic catastrophe in Sudan.                  
                                                                              
      The majority of Sudanese people do not want to see the south secede,    
      though, and so all of these statements are usually adjoined to          
      criticism of foreign influences for the south*s determination to leave  
      (a *Zionist conspiracy* is the most popular explanation).               
                                                                              
      The national elections held in Sudan last April left the NCP with a     
      solid mandate; it won just more than 72 percent of all the seats in     
      the national assembly, with 22.3 percent of the seats going to the      
      south*s leading party, the Sudan People*s Liberation Movement (SPLM).   
      The SPLM*s seats would become vacant if the independence referendum     
      passes, and this essentially would turn Sudan into a one-party state    
      run by the NCP. Bashir*s party is thus completely opposed to calls by   
      northern opposition parties (most of whom decided to boycott the April  
      elections) to voluntarily concede its power by forming a new            
      transitional government that would craft a new constitution before      
      calling for fresh elections.                                            
                                                                              
      Bashir and his allies see such demands by Sadiq al-Mahdi*s National     
      Umma Party and Hassan al-Turabi*s Popular Congress Party as an          
      invitation to create an unnecessary risk to its political power.        
      Al-Mahdi and al-Turabi, on the other hand, feel that the south*s        
      imminent exit from the government of national unity will provide a      
      rare opportunity to place significant pressure upon the NCP. Both       
      opposition party leaders know that once this window closes, it will be  
      extremely difficult to reopen. Thus, they fervently are pushing the     
      notion that southern secession * and the void it will leave in the      
      democratically elected government, not to mention the problems that     
      will arise with the interim constitution * will strip the NCP of its    
      political legitimacy. This, they argue, would require a reorganization  
      of Sudan*s political framework. Bashir is not budging, however. He has  
      vowed to merely amend (not discard) the interim constitution so as to   
      account for the south*s departure, and declared that he and the rest    
      of the government will remain in office for the remainder of their      
      five-year terms won in the recent elections. Anyone opposed to this,    
      Bashir said Dec. 28, can *lick his elbow.*                              
                                                                              
      It is the fear that the opposition may seize on the NCP*s perceived     
      weakness in the wake of the referendum that explains Bashir*s recent    
      pledge to reinforce Sharia as the law of the land in Sudan after the    
      south secedes, with Islam as the national religion and Arabic as the    
      national language. Having lost the role of the protector of Sudan*s     
      unity, the NCP is seeking to return to its roots in a way, playing up   
      its Islamist credentials as a means of regaining whatever political     
      legitimacy it risks losing with the breakup of Sudan. While Khartoum    
      has decided that going to war with the south is not worth it (as long   
      as the SPLM does not try to overstep its bounds, say, in the            
      oil-revenue talks, or by increasing its support for Darfur rebels), it  
      will not be so compliant when it comes to how it intends to wield       
      control in what is left of Sudan.                                       
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
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      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 30, 2010 10:57:25 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: U.S. Employment Stabilizes

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     U.S. Employment Stabilizes                                               
                                                                              
      December 30, 2010 | 1541 GMT                                            
      U.S. Employment Stabilizes                                              
      SCOTT OLSON/Getty Images                                                
      A worker assembles a vehicle at a plant in Chicago                      
                                                                              
      First-time U.S. unemployment claims are one of the key statistics       
      STRATFOR follows religiously. Unlike most statistics, they represent    
      something close to a hard-and-fast figure * X people applied for        
      unemployment assistance in the previous week * rather than an           
      estimate. It is dependent not on surveys but on how much money state    
      governments have to pay out to claimants. When one has to pay, one*s    
      numbers become devilishly accurate. This means the statistic is         
      largely immune to any political manipulation or misinterpretation.      
                                                                              
      In contrast, statistics such as the government*s headline unemployment  
      or job creation figures are based on dated surveys, which then wrestle  
      a complex matrix of data into a single * oversimplified * number.       
      First-time unemployment claims therefore are our preferred method for   
      monitoring the U.S. labor market overall, as the service-oriented       
      nature of the U.S. economy prevents the government from generating      
      useful data as regards actual job creation.                             
                                                                              
      Unemployment claims were updated Dec. 30, and the new information       
      tells us three things.                                                  
                                                                              
      U.S. Employment Stabilizes                                              
                                                                              
      First, unemployment claims are a current indicator that informs us of   
      the status of the labor market right now. In this case, claims have     
      dipped to 388,000 in the week ending Dec. 24 from 422,000 the week      
      before. The magic number here is 400,000 * that is the point that       
      separates a strengthening labor market from a weakening one. Past       
      performance indicates that anything above 400,000 means the economy is  
      destroying jobs faster than it is creating them. Conversely, anything   
      below 400,000 indicates an overall improvement in the jobs picture.     
                                                                              
      Second, unemployment claims are a lagging indicator that tells us the   
      general mindset of the business world. When businesses accelerate       
      layoffs, it is because they are in a situation where their              
      profitability is threatened. For most companies, staff represents a     
      high sunk cost in terms of training; letting go of staff is typically   
      the last * most desperate * thing they do to return to profitability.   
      Lower unemployment claims, therefore, indicate that businesses have     
      become relatively comfortable with the balance between staff costs and  
      profitability.                                                          
                                                                              
      Third, unemployment claims are a leading indicator that informs us of   
      what consumer spending will look like in three to six months. Stronger  
      job creation means increased private income, which in turn means        
      increased private consumption. Roughly 70 percent of U.S. gross         
      domestic product is composed of private consumption, so lower           
      first-time claims tend to lead to a virtuous circle of higher           
      employment, higher income, higher consumption, higher manufacturing     
      orders, and back to higher employment to fill those orders.             
                                                                              
      Of course, this is simply one week*s statistic. For improvement to      
      occur, this statistic will need to hold * or ideally continue dropping  
      * for several months yet. But the fact remains that 400,000 tends to    
      be the inflection point between recessionary and/or tepid economic      
      performance and fast economic growth. For the first time since the      
      recession began in September 2008, the United States has edged back     
      into that zone.                                                         
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 30, 2010 11:05:21 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Stratfor's World Snapshot

      Stratfor logo                     December 30, 2010                     
     Stratfor's World Snapshot                                                
                                                                              
      Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 7 - NATO Expands                           
      STRATFOR                                                                
                                                                              
     Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 7 - NATO Expands                            
                                                                              
      December 30, 2010 1320 GMT                                              
      STRATFOR analysts provide an explanation of our Top Ten Most Important  
      Geopolitical Events of the decade. We've also teamed up with our        
      partner, DigitalGlobe, the world's leading commercial satellite         
      imagery company, to provide compelling images illustrating each of      
      these key events. (With STRATFOR interactive photo essay.) [more]       
      U.S. Employment Stabilizes                                              
                                                                              
     U.S. Employment Stabilizes                                               
                                                                              
      December 30, 2010 1541 GMT                                              
      U.S. employment levels have stabilized, leading the way to strong       
      growth. [more]                                                          
      Southern Sudan's Referendum: Khartoum Changes its Tone                  
                                                                              
     Southern Sudan's Referendum: Khartoum Changes its Tone                   
                                                                              
      December 30, 2010 1223 GMT                                              
      The Sudanese government appears to have shifted its focus from          
      opposing Southern Sudanese independence to planning for a future        
      without the south. (With STRATFOR map) [more]                           
      U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 29, 2010                                    
                                                                              
     U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 29, 2010                                     
                                                                              
      December 29, 2010 1915 GMT                                              
      A weekly approximation of the current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike  
      Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups, based on available open-source      
      information. (With STRATFOR map) [more]                                 
                                                                              
      More Analysis &gt;&gt;                                                        
                                                                              
     Situation Reports                                                        
                                                                              
     Afghanistan: Military Operation To Be Launched In West                   
                                                                              
      December 30, 2010 1623 GMT                                              
      Afghan and foreign military forces will launch an operation against     
      the Taliban in the country's western provinces, Afghan Islamic Press    
      reported Dec. 30. The Afghan chief of army staff, Gen. Sher... [more]   
                                                                              
     Algeria: 50 Al Qaeda Suspects Killed In 3 Weeks - Report                 
                                                                              
      December 30, 2010 1614 GMT                                              
                                                                              
     China: New Market Maker Guidelines Issued                                
                                                                              
      December 30, 2010 1610 GMT                                              
                                                                              
     Belarus: Foreigners Backed Opposition Candidates                         
                                                                              
      December 30, 2010 1609 GMT                                              
      More Situation Reports &gt;&gt;                                               
                                                                              
     Weekly Intelligence Reports                                              
                                                                              
      Separating Terror from Terrorism                                        
                                                                              
     Separating Terror from Terrorism                                         
                                                                              
      December 30, 2010 0955 GMT                                              
      A terrorist attack does not have to succeed to cause panic and alarm    
      as long as terror magnifiers react accordingly. [more]                  
      Making Sense of the START Debate                                        
                                                                              
     Making Sense of the START Debate                                         
                                                                              
      December 28, 2010 0950 GMT                                              
      Europe: The New Plan                                                    
                                                                              
     Europe: The New Plan                                                     
                                                                              
      December 21, 2010 1000 GMT                                              
      Mexico and the Cartel Wars in 2010                                      
                                                                              
     Mexico and the Cartel Wars in 2010                                       
                                                                              
      December 16, 2010 0946 GMT                                              
      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 30, 2010 12:00:35 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Obstacles to Lifting Europe's Arms Embargo Against China

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Obstacles to Lifting Europe's Arms Embargo Against China                 
                                                                              
      December 30, 2010 | 1724 GMT                                            
      Obstacles to Lifting Europe's Arms Embargo Against China                
      FENG LI/AFP/Getty Images                                                
      The European Union*s foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton (3rd L),    
      talks to Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi (3rd R) during their      
      meeting in Beijing on Sept. 2                                           
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      The European Union is considering lifting its arms embargo against      
      China, which has been in place since 1989. Several major European       
      states, including the United Kingdom and Germany, are rumored to be     
      against the embargo*s continuation. There are several obstacles,        
      however, including a general distrust of China. Even if that distrust   
      can be overcome, there remains the requirement of unanimity voting on   
      EU foreign policy decisions.                                            
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      French daily Le Figaro reported Dec. 30 that the European Union is      
      considering lifting its arms embargo against China, in place since the  
      1989 Tiananmen Square incident. A source close to EU foreign policy     
      chief Catherine Ashton told the newspaper that the lifting of the       
      embargo on all lethal weapons *could happen very quickly.* These        
      comments follow a Dec. 17 EU leaders summit at which a confidential     
      report claimed that the embargo was a major hurdle to EU-China foreign  
      policy and should be scrapped.                                          
                                                                              
      Despite these developments, the issue faces several potential           
      obstacles, not the least of which is the need for unanimity on EU       
      foreign policy decisions.                                               
                                                                              
      The European Union has considered lifting the embargo before * the      
      issue has received serious attention four times since 2001. Former      
      German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and former French President         
      Jacques Chirac were both opposed to the embargo. There is also          
      anecdotal evidence that the current German, British and Dutch           
      governments are all considering changing their stances. However, a      
      general degree of concern over China*s growing military power and       
      intentions could interfere with a deal that would give Beijing the      
      weapons technology it badly desires. This distrust was exemplified      
      recently when Germany announced the creation of a national cyber        
      defense center and explicitly mentioned the Chinese threat.             
                                                                              
      If the Europeans overcame their concerns, all 27 members of the union   
      would have to approve lifting the embargo. The European Union has       
      retained unanimity voting on foreign policy issues, despite a move      
      toward less unanimity voting in general in the Lisbon Treaty, the       
      union*s constitutional treaty in force since January 2010. The Lisbon   
      Treaty does have a provision by which member states can hand off a      
      foreign policy issue to the bloc*s foreign policy chief, after which    
      any proposal from Ashton would be voted on via a qualified majority     
      procedure. However, handing off the issue would still require           
      unanimity at the European Council level.                                
                                                                              
      Of the European powers, France has been the most consistently opposed   
      to the embargo due to the prospect of lucrative arms deals with China.  
      However, the United States is still vehemently opposed to arms sales    
      to China that could bring it Western military technology. Although      
      Washington does not have a seat at the EU foreign policy table, it can  
      emphasize to its NATO allies the need for unity on the issue. And if    
      Washington*s lobbying efforts fall flat with Berlin, London and Paris,  
      it can always turn to smaller Central European allies that can veto     
      the issue.                                                              
                                                                              
      Furthermore, it is not clear that the European governments have a free  
      pass from their constituents on the embargo. The issue of Chinese       
      human rights violations is even more important to the populace in       
      Europe than it is in the United States. Politicians can lose popular    
      support for appearing overly supportive of China*s military.            
      Furthermore, the European Parliament is vehemently opposed to lifting   
      the embargo, and while it does not have a say in the matter it could    
      further complicate the move with Europe*s constituents if the only      
      democratically elected EU institution is against it.                    
                                                                              
      Whether there is a concrete push to lift the embargo will probably      
      become clearer when Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang visits Europe from  
      Jan. 4-12. For China, weapons and technology acquisitions are a high    
      priority, and China has repeatedly emphasized that the politically      
      thorny problem of its growing trade surpluses with the European Union   
      could be alleviated if the union would ease restrictions on exports on  
      key goods that China craves. Li is officially in charge of China*s      
      food security policy but is considered the heir apparent to current     
      Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, making him the No. 2 in command in China    
      after the leadership change in 2012. Moreover, he is an economics       
      specialist, and STRATFOR sources have indicated that he leads China*s   
      economic policy when Wen specifically hands it over. Li*s trip          
      includes visits to Spain, Germany and the United Kingdom * and support  
      from the latter two states would be critical for the lifting of the     
      embargo. Berlin is the European Union*s political and economic          
      powerhouse, and London is Washington*s most committed ally in Europe.   
      However, even if Beijing succeeds in lobbying major European capitals,  
      the hurdle of unanimity remains.                                        
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
      Not For Publication                                                     
      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 30, 2010 1:07:27 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Growing U.S.-Venezuelan Tensions

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Growing U.S.-Venezuelan Tensions                                         
                                                                              
      December 30, 2010 | 1804 GMT                                            
      Growing U.S.-Venezuelan Tensions                                        
      BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/Getty Images                                         
      The Venezuelan Embassy in Washington                                    
                                                                              
      Diplomatic tensions between the United States and Venezuela are rising  
      following the U.S. administration*s decision late Dec. 29 to revoke     
      the visa of Venezuelan Ambassador to the United States Bernardo         
      Alvarez Herrera.                                                        
                                                                              
      The move was in response to Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez*s          
      rejection of U.S. diplomat Larry Palmer as the new U.S. ambassador to   
      Venezuela. Palmer, who earlier made remarks on the Cubanization of the  
      Venezuelan armed forces, the low morale of the army and Venezuela*s     
      support for Colombian rebels, has been a target of sharp criticism by   
      the Venezuelan government in recent months.                             
                                                                              
      But there are more critical issues simmering beneath the surface of     
      this diplomatic tit-for-tat between Caracas and Washington. One such    
      issue concerns the fate of alleged Venezuelan drug kingpin Walid        
      Makled, who was captured Aug. 19 (with the help of the U.S. Drug        
      Enforcement Agency) in Colombia. Makled is a valuable bargaining chip   
      for Colombia and the United States * and a critical threat to the       
      Venezuelan regime * due to the amount of evidence he is believed to     
      possess linking high-ranking Venezuelan officials to money-laundering,  
      drug-trafficking and possibly terrorism charges.                        
                                                                              
      Chavez, in an attempt to insulate his government from Makled*s          
      testimony, has been demanding Makled*s extradition, a request that      
      Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos said in November he would        
      honor. At the time, the U.S. administration and the U.S. State          
      Department in particular were not interested in pushing for Makled*s    
      extradition to the United States, preferring instead to prevent a       
      crisis with Venezuela from erupting while holding onto any testimony    
      gleaned from interrogations the United States had been quietly          
      conducting with Makled since early December. The United States was not  
      keen on pushing this issue with Venezuela, but it was not going to      
      pass up the opportunity to obtain testimony for later use, should the   
      need arise.                                                             
                                                                              
      According to a STRATFOR source, the United States may now be shifting   
      its position on the Makled extradition case. Recently, alleged          
      evidence of links (most likely tied primarily to drug trafficking)      
      between Hezbollah and Makled (as well as Venezuelan Minister of         
      Interior and Justice Tareck el Aissami) were brought to the attention   
      of the U.S. administration. Rumors are circulating in Washington that   
      based on these links the United States will revive its extradition      
      request for Makled * a move that will make Chavez extremely anxious.    
      There are a number of players with varying agendas attempting to build  
      up Venezuela*s links with Iran (through alleged banking transactions,   
      Hezbollah and Iranian Quds Force links, and even rumors of Iranian      
      missile parts being placed in Venezuela) as a way to direct the U.S.    
      administration*s attention on the Venezuelan government. Many of these  
      claims could be exaggerated, but raising the Iran banner is an          
      effective means of grabbing Washington*s attention. The United States   
      is still likely to exercise constraint in dealing with Venezuela, but   
      should it proceed in pushing its extradition demand for Makled,         
      U.S.-Venezuelan tensions will increase considerably.                    
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
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      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 30, 2010 6:55:25 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Venezuela Ends Its Dual Exchange Rate

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Venezuela Ends Its Dual Exchange Rate                                    
                                                                              
      December 31, 2010 | 0049 GMT                                            
      Venezuela Ends Its Dual Exchange Rate                                   
      JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty Images                                           
      A man tries to operate a cash dispenser of the Venezuelan Central Bank  
      in Caracas                                                              
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      Venezuela will end its subsidized exchange rate on Jan. 1, 2011. Until  
      then, the South American country has had two rates, one for essential   
      goods and one for non-essential goods. This two-tiered system created   
      a host of unintended consequences * consequences Caracas hopes end      
      come Jan. 1.                                                            
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      The Venezuelan government announced Dec. 30 that it will eliminate the  
      subsidized exchange rate of 2.6 bolivars per dollar Jan. 1, 2011,       
      leaving only the official rate of 4.3 and ending a 12-month-old         
      dual-exchange rate system that generated massive corruption.            
                                                                              
      In January, the Venezuelan government officially devalued the bolivar   
      (VEF) from 2.15 per dollar to the subsidized rate of 2.6 per dollar     
      for essential goods, such as food and medical supplies, and to 4.3 per  
      dollar for all other goods, thus creating a dual exchange rate regime.  
      Though compelling political and economic aims may have been at the      
      heart of the January devaluation, fixing the unintended consequences    
      associated with that devaluation is behind Venezuela*s decision to      
      devalue again.                                                          
                                                                              
      As the official rate of 2.15 bolivar per dollar was overvalued, the     
      government*s devaluing the bolivar to bring it more in line with its    
      fair value was in part aimed at preventing Venezuela*s non-commodity    
      tradable sector from continuing to buckle under high exchange rates.    
      As the effects of the devaluation would fall most heavily on those      
      with the least income, however, the government simultaneously           
      introduced the subsidized exchange rate to shield those individuals     
      from the consequent loss of purchasing power. In practice, this made    
      the cost of importing food and other essentials lower than the cost     
      for other imports. The subsidized rate also provided the government an  
      avenue through which to support select (state-owned) companies by       
      granting them access to the international system and the ability to     
      obtain essential goods at the subsidized rate.                          
                                                                              
      The company that stood to gain the most from the devaluation was        
      state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA). PDVSA controls  
      Venezuela*s energy sector and is the primary source for bringing        
      dollars into the economy. Whereas PDVSA used to receive just 2.15 VEF   
      per dollar, after the devaluation it could sell those dollars for 4.3   
      VEF, essentially doubling the domestic purchasing power of its dollar   
      revenue. PDVSA supplies more than half the country*s public funds,      
      both through the government*s budget and through PDVSA*s own social     
      programs, meaning what was good for PDVSA*s bottom line was also good   
      for the Venezuelan government.                                          
                                                                              
      However well-intentioned the dual exchange system may have been, it     
      nevertheless had a number of adverse political and economic             
      consequences * consequences that the Dec. 30 devaluation is intended    
      to stem. As access to the rates was strictly controlled under the dual  
      system, the already-robust black market was many Venezuelans* only      
      option for obtaining hard currency. This caused the black market rate   
      (or *parallel rate*) to diverge significantly from even the lower of    
      the two official parities, with the bolivar trading at one point        
      upwards of 8 VEF per dollar.                                            
                                                                              
      This made importing (any) goods significantly more expensive, stoking   
      Venezuela*s already-high inflation. If doing away with the dual         
      exchange rate translates into greater dollar availability at official   
      rates, this might therefore help reduce the need for dollars from the   
      black market. This could alleviate inflationary pressures on the        
      domestic economy, which could in turn also alleviate some pressure      
      from Venezuela*s foreign exchange reserve holdings. These had been      
      depleted by meeting demand for dollars at the subsidized rate, which    
      accounts for about 30 percent of all exchange transactions.             
                                                                              
      But a currency worth more or less depending on what it is used to buy   
      not only is inefficient and creates distortions, it breeds corruption.  
      The existence of the subsidized rate motivated exchange rate arbitrage  
      and the misclassification of transactions as essential; the             
      consequences of this became readily apparent in the warehouses of       
      rotting food and other essential equipment littering the country.       
      (Corrupt officials would import masses of *essential* goods only to     
      hoard them to maintain a shortage; they would then slowly sell those    
      goods for a hefty profit on the black market). Finding warehousing of   
      rotting food during an ostensible food shortage is definitely a big     
      political liability * one the government hopes will disappear along     
      with the subsidized rate.                                               
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
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      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 31, 2010 6:22:04 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 6 - EU Restructuring

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 6 - EU Restructuring                        
                                                                              
      December 31, 2010 | 1214 GMT                                            
                                                                              
      Choosing the 10 most important geopolitical events of the past decade   
      is a challenge. But STRATFOR analysts took on the task, and after a     
      robust debate, they produced our Top 10 Most Important Geopolitical     
      Events of the Decade. We have teamed up with our partner,               
      DigitalGlobe, the world*s leading commercial satellite imagery          
      company, to provide compelling images illustrating each of these key    
      events.                                                                 
                                                                              
      Join us as we count down the Top 10, unveiling an event daily starting  
      Dec. 27 and culminating Jan. 5, when we reveal our selection for the    
      single most important event of the decade.                              
                                                                              
      Click the link below to see STRATFOR*s explanation of each event along  
      with a satellite image.                                                 
                                                                              
      Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 7 - NATO Expands                           
      (click here to view interactive map)                                    
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
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      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 31, 2010 9:04:29 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: The Chinese President's Visit and Sino-U.S. Relations

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     The Chinese President's Visit and Sino-U.S. Relations                    
                                                                              
      December 31, 2010 | 1457 GMT                                            
      The Chinese President's Visit and Sino-U.S. Relations                   
      TIM SLOAN/AFP/Getty Images                                              
      U.S. President Barack Obama (L) shakes hands with Chinese President Hu  
      Jintao at a meeting in Seoul on Nov. 11                                 
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      Chinese President Hu Jintao will visit the United States in January.    
      Economic and political issues * including tensions on the Korean        
      Peninsula * will be on the agenda. Hu*s visit, which comes even as      
      tensions between Washington and Beijing are on the rise, is seen as     
      the next major indicator of the direction Sino-U.S. relations will      
      take.                                                                   
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      China has fixed a date for President Hu Jintao*s long-anticipated       
      visit to the United States, which is slated to include a state dinner   
      with U.S. President Barack Obama at the White House on Jan. 19 and      
      possibly other events. As a corollary to the visit, U.S. Defense        
      Secretary Robert Gates will visit China from Jan. 9-12 to speak with    
      his counterpart, Liang Guanglie, and then will visit Japan from Jan.    
      13-14 to meet Japanese Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa.               
                                                                              
      Hu*s visit to the United States has attracted attention as the next     
      large signpost indicating the direction of China*s relations with the   
      United States. There will certainly be much pageantry, and the Chinese  
      are expected to bring a large business delegation and announce new      
      deals worth an estimated $10 billion. Chinese and U.S. companies have   
      sealed a number of major deals in 2010, and the two governments have    
      pledged cooperation on regulatory disputes, yet the Sino-U.S.           
      relationship is increasingly strained due to several economic and       
      strategic disagreements. Discussions about China*s currency, the        
      Korean Peninsula and other topics during Hu*s visit will indicate       
      whether rising tensions between Washington and Beijing can be managed   
      in 2011.                                                                
                                                                              
      The status of the Korean Peninsula will be very much at issue.          
      Military tensions remain high, as South Korea proceeded with military   
      exercises aimed at intimidating the North * this time naval drills in   
      the Sea of Japan (East Sea) * while rumors suggested that Pyongyang     
      could test a third nuclear device to raise tensions further (something  
      which is by no means improbable). All sides are positioning themselves  
      for an eventual resumption of six-party negotiations to restore a       
      veneer of stability on the Korean Peninsula. The United States will     
      send negotiators to South Korea in early January, before Hu*s visit,    
      and Chinese and South Korean working-level defense talks will be held,  
      in addition to Gates* trip to China and Japan. The United States has    
      demanded that China take a more active role in restraining North        
      Korea, since Beijing has increased its influence over the North in      
      recent years to use it as a geopolitical lever against the United       
      States, and Washington suspects this emboldened Pyongyang to conduct    
      attacks. So far Beijing has not committed to concrete action but has    
      complained about the U.S. response. Currently the momentum for          
      resuming talks appears to be building, but the risk of another          
      incident remains high. The Obama-Hu meeting likely will indicate the    
      status of this dynamic.                                                 
                                                                              
      Hu*s visit will be the next major opportunity to check the status of    
      the ongoing tug of war over China*s undervalued currency. Beijing has   
      allowed its currency to appreciate by not quite 3 percent since it      
      pledged to adopt a more flexible regime, and the United States will     
      demand more.                                                            
                                                                              
      The yuan is a top concern, but there are several others. The United     
      States* primary concern remains persistent high unemployment levels,    
      and Washington is convinced that China*s pro-export and pro-domestic    
      policies are unfairly shielding China from global competition,          
      shutting out U.S. exports to China and undercutting U.S. manufacturers  
      whose goods compete with Chinese imports.                               
                                                                              
      Furthermore, the United States last week called for dispute settlement  
      negotiations with China, under the World Trade Organization framework,  
      over China*s Special Fund for Wind Power Manufacturing, which gives     
      subsidies to Chinese suppliers of equipment and parts, shutting out     
      foreign contenders. Despite allegedly successful trade talks in         
      mid-December, mutual distrust in economic policy is motivating threats  
      of greater trade punishments between the two states. So far the United  
      States has avoided imposing sweeping barriers on Chinese imports, has   
      deferred U.S. Treasury reports that could cite China for currency       
      manipulation, and has avoided other opportunities to take an            
      aggressive approach, preferring instead negotiation and persuasion.     
                                                                              
      However, the American stance could shift in 2011 for two reasons.       
      First, Obama*s loss of power in the U.S. legislature will confound him  
      on many domestic issues, leaving foreign policy as the primary sphere   
      in which he can act. Any demonstration of strength would likely be      
      aimed at Iran or China. Second, there are signs that the incoming U.S.  
      Congress could have a protectionist streak that could lead to tougher   
      action on China as well, along the lines of the attempt in the          
      previous Congress to pass a bill that would nudge the administration    
      to count China*s undervalued currency as a subsidy and impose           
      countervailing duties in response.                                      
                                                                              
      Beijing is aware that the United States could become harder to work     
      with, especially toward the second half of 2011 when the 2012           
      elections become more pressing. But China*s problem is that             
      capitulation, on currency or industrial policy, poses risks for its     
      economic and social stability. For instance, with the outlook for       
      export growth weakening in 2011 (estimated at 10 percent, down from 30  
      percent in 2010), Beijing fears appreciating its currency too fast,     
      which could add further strain to the export sector and cause higher    
      unemployment. Similarly, Beijing is walking a fine line in attempting   
      to tighten monetary and credit controls to prevent overheating while    
      avoiding a deep economic slowdown that would upset society as a whole.  
      Since Beijing has a generational leadership transition in 2012, it is   
      not in a risk-taking mood and will resist U.S. pressure as much as it   
      can. The stage is therefore set for U.S.-China tensions to continue     
      rising in 2011, and the Hu-Obama meeting will be the first occasion to  
      see how handily the two sides will be able to cope.                     
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
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      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: December 31, 2010 11:05:03 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Stratfor's World Snapshot

      Stratfor logo                     December 31, 2010                     
     Stratfor's World Snapshot                                                
                                                                              
      Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 6 - EU Restructuring                       
      STRATFOR                                                                
                                                                              
     Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 6 - EU Restructuring                        
                                                                              
      December 31, 2010 1214 GMT                                              
      STRATFOR analysts provide an explanation of our Top Ten Most Important  
      Geopolitical Events of the decade. We've also teamed up with our        
      partner, DigitalGlobe, the world's leading commercial satellite         
      imagery company, to provide compelling images illustrating each of      
      these key events. (With STRATFOR interactive photo essay.) [more]       
      The Chinese President's Visit and Sino-U.S. Relations                   
                                                                              
     The Chinese President's Visit and Sino-U.S. Relations                    
                                                                              
      December 31, 2010 1457 GMT                                              
      Chinese President Hu Jintao's upcoming visit to the United States is    
      seen as a major indicator of the direction of U.S.-Chinese relations.   
      [more]                                                                  
      Venezuela Ends Its Dual Exchange Rate                                   
                                                                              
     Venezuela Ends Its Dual Exchange Rate                                    
                                                                              
      December 31, 2010 0049 GMT                                              
      Caracas' hopes the corruption spawned by its dual exchange rate ends    
      with the Jan. 1 termination of the rate itself. [more]                  
      Growing U.S.-Venezuelan Tensions                                        
                                                                              
     Growing U.S.-Venezuelan Tensions                                         
                                                                              
      December 30, 2010 1804 GMT                                              
      Washington's move to revoke the Venezuelan ambassador's visa is just    
      the surface of a growing spat between the countries. [more]             
                                                                              
      More Analysis &gt;&gt;                                                        
                                                                              
     Situation Reports                                                        
                                                                              
     Cote d'Ivoire: West African Countries Prepared To Oust Gbagbo            
                                                                              
      December 31, 2010 1541 GMT                                              
      West African regional military leaders are prepared to oust Ivorian     
      President Laurent Gbagbo if negotiations fail, AFP reported Dec. 31.    
      At a meeting of the Economic Community of West African... [more]        
                                                                              
     Afghanistan: Taliban Leader Reportedly Killed                            
                                                                              
      December 31, 2010 1536 GMT                                              
                                                                              
     Pakistan: Two Explosions Leave 1 Dead, 3 Wounded                         
                                                                              
      December 31, 2010 1529 GMT                                              
                                                                              
     Pakistan: Taliban Release Tribesmen                                      
                                                                              
      December 31, 2010 1528 GMT                                              
      More Situation Reports &gt;&gt;                                               
                                                                              
     Weekly Intelligence Reports                                              
                                                                              
      Separating Terror from Terrorism                                        
                                                                              
     Separating Terror from Terrorism                                         
                                                                              
      December 30, 2010 0955 GMT                                              
      A terrorist attack does not have to succeed to cause panic and alarm    
      as long as terror magnifiers react accordingly. [more]                  
      Making Sense of the START Debate                                        
                                                                              
     Making Sense of the START Debate                                         
                                                                              
      December 28, 2010 0950 GMT                                              
      Europe: The New Plan                                                    
                                                                              
     Europe: The New Plan                                                     
                                                                              
      December 21, 2010 1000 GMT                                              
      Mexico and the Cartel Wars in 2010                                      
                                                                              
     Mexico and the Cartel Wars in 2010                                       
                                                                              
      December 16, 2010 0946 GMT                                              
      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 1, 2011 6:30:04 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 5 - Russia Elects Putin

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 5 - Russia Elects Putin                     
                                                                              
      January 1, 2011 | 1222 GMT                                              
                                                                              
      Choosing the 10 most important geopolitical events of the past decade   
      is a challenge. But STRATFOR analysts took on the task, and after a     
      robust debate, they produced our Top 10 Most Important Geopolitical     
      Events of the Decade. We have teamed up with our partner,               
      DigitalGlobe, the world*s leading commercial satellite imagery          
      company, to provide compelling images illustrating each of these key    
      events.                                                                 
                                                                              
      Join us as we count down the Top 10, unveiling an event daily starting  
      Dec. 27 and culminating Jan. 5, when we reveal our selection for the    
      single most important event of the decade.                              
                                                                              
      Click the link below to see STRATFOR*s explanation of each event along  
      with a satellite image.                                                 
                                                                              
      [IMG]                                                                   
      (click here to view interactive map)                                    
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
      Not For Publication                                                     
      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 1, 2011 10:56:23 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Chinese Provincial Reshuffling and the 6th Generation of
     Leadership

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Chinese Provincial Reshuffling and the 6th Generation of Leadership      
                                                                              
      January 1, 2011 | 1647 GMT                                              
      Chinese Provincial Reshuffling and the 6th Generation of Leadership     
      STR/AFP/Getty Images                                                    
      The capital of China*s Jillin province, Changchun, where Sun Zhengcai   
      was appointed as party secretary                                        
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      As China nears a 2012 transition to its fifth generation of leaders,    
      the foundations are being built for the takeover of the sixth           
      generation in 2022. Chinese provincial leaders are generally the        
      strongest candidates for key national leadership positions, and 16      
      provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions have seen recent       
      leadership reshuffling that has revealed rising stars in the Chinese    
      political realm.                                                        
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      With the Communist Party of China (CPC) approaching a generational      
      leadership transition in 2012, extensive appointments of provincial     
      leaders were made in 2010. The 2012 line-up is already relatively firm  
      (though China*s transitions work by precedent rather than hard and      
      fast rules). Meanwhile, the country is laying the groundwork for        
      additional leadership changes in 2017 and for the sixth generation of   
      leaders to take over in 2022.                                           
                                                                              
      At the provincial level, 16 provinces, municipalities and autonomous    
      regions saw a leadership reshuffle. China*s political system contains   
      two parallel tracks * the CPC and the Chinese state. On the provincial  
      or regional level, there are two parallel leaders, the party secretary  
      (the most powerful figure) and the governor (or *chairman* or *acting   
      governor,* depending on the province and circumstances). Newly          
      appointed to their posts were eight party secretaries, eight            
      governors/chairmen and four acting governors. Adding these changes to   
      the appointment of party secretaries in five other provinces in         
      November 2009, a total of 25 new faces are now displayed in the CPC*s   
      elite inner circle. Eight of these officials were transferred to their  
      new posts from another province, four were transferred from a central   
      government ministry or a centrally administrated bureau and 13 came     
      from the same region.                                                   
                                                                              
      Ages of the new appointees range from 50 to 60, which means they will   
      be no more than 62 years old by 2012, when the CPC*s 18th National      
      Congress takes place. (Under the CPC*s unspoken age restrictions,       
      provincial-level leaders should retire before reaching 65 years of      
      age, and the cap for entering the CPC Central Committee and Politburo   
      is 67.) The congress will see the reshuffle of the 204-member CPC       
      Central Committee as well as the 25-member Politburo and, at the        
      highest level, the nine-member Politburo Standing Committee, which      
      comprises the country*s most powerful leaders.                          
                                                                              
      In China, provincial leaders are the strongest candidates for key       
      positions of national leadership. Most politicians at the national      
      level have provincial experience, and former provincial leaders have    
      historically held many seats in the Central Committee. This phenomenon  
      has become more prominent in recent years due in part to Beijing*s      
      effort to promote policies that are better suited for the regions and   
      to strengthen regional loyalty toward the center. Beijing also is       
      encouraging cross-regional leadership exchange and is increasingly      
      putting officials in charge of provinces that are not their places of   
      origin. During the 2007 reshuffle, six provincial leaders (including    
      the party secretaries of Beijing, Xinjiang, Shanghai, Tianjin,          
      Chongqing and Guangdong) were elected to the Politburo and 41           
      provincial leaders became part of the Central Committee. It is          
      estimated that the percentage of Politburo members who had provincial   
      leadership experience increased from 50 percent in 1992 to 76 percent   
      in 2007. Provincial leadership has increasingly become a prerequisite   
      for key state posts.                                                    
                                                                              
      Chinese Provincial Reshuffling and the 6th Generation of Leadership     
      (click here to enlarge image)                                           
                                                                              
      The 25 newly appointed provincial chiefs, as well as 17 current         
      provincial chiefs born after the 1950s (among a total of 62 provincial  
      chiefs), are well suited due to age and political status for promotion  
      during the fifth-generational leadership transition in 2012 and the     
      leadership reshuffle in 2017. Some will also be strong candidates for   
      the sixth-generational leadership transition expected to occur in       
      2022. While none of them is currently a member of the Politburo and     
      therefore would not likely be promoted to the Politburo Standing        
      Committee in 2012, their promotions or equivalent transfers to          
      provincial-level posts and their age advantage put them in a strong     
      position to compete for other key positions in 2012, when nearly 60     
      percent of Central Committee and Politburo members will be reshuffled.  
      This could further pave the way for them to join the Politburo or       
      Politburo Standing Committee in 2017. At that time, the                 
      sixth-generational state leadership, including the president, chairman  
      of the National People*s Congress and premier, could emerge with a      
      view toward the 2022 transition.                                        
                                                                              
      Among these promising leaders, Hu Chunhua, Zhou Qiang and Sun Zhengcai  
      have attracted the most attention as the country*s anticipated sixth    
      generation of top leaders. All of them were born after 1960 and by      
      2022 will be no more than 62 years old, which would enable them to      
      serve another two terms if they are promoted to state leaders and rule  
      from 2022 to 2032. This is in line with the CPC*s preference to have    
      the country*s most important leaders serve two terms to sustain power   
      and policy. Meanwhile, both Zhou and Hu have strong backgrounds in the  
      China Communist Youth League (CCYL), a factional base that has close    
      ties to President Hu Jintao, who served as first secretary of the CCYL  
      in the 1980s. The CCYL has always been a power base for generating      
      prospective leaders, but Hu gave it even greater prominence after       
      becoming president by promoting a number of CCYL people, in part to     
      strengthen his power base. In fact, since many CCYL leaders are         
      currently assuming provincial positions, this clique is extremely       
      well-situated for the sixth-generational reshuffle.                     
                                                                              
      Both emerging from the CCYL and having served as its first secretary,   
      Zhou Qiang and Hu Chunhua were promoted to provincial leaders at very   
      early ages. Zhou was made Hunan governor in 2007 at the age of 47,      
      making him the country*s youngest governor at that time. Hu Chunhua     
      has been working in Tibet for 23 years, partly coinciding with Hu       
      Jintao*s term as Tibetan party secretary, and therefore has close       
      personal ties with the president. Hu Chunhua was promoted to Hebei      
      governor in 2009 at the age of 46 and a year later became the party     
      secretary of Inner Mongolia. These officials have taken a classic path  
      from the CCYL to higher leadership, suggesting promising political      
      futures for both when the next generation assumes power in China.       
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 1, 2011 11:53:27 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Egypt: Jihadists Trying to Take Advantage of Transition?

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Egypt: Jihadists Trying to Take Advantage of Transition?                 
                                                                              
      January 1, 2011 | 1740 GMT                                              
      RED ALERT: U.S. Consulate Attacked In Pakistan                          
                                                                              
      A bombing targeting a Coptic church in Egypt*s port city of Alexandria  
      on Jan 1 killed as many as 21 people and wounded an estimated 80        
      others. According to reports, the bomb went off outside the Church of   
      the Two Saints some 20 minutes after midnight when worshipers were      
      gathered for New Year*s mass. While preliminary reports said the        
      device was planted in a vehicle, Egyptian authorities said it was a     
      suicide attack.                                                         
                                                                              
      Regardless of the type of IED involved, the target set and the timing   
      (on New Year*s) show that jihadists are likely behind this attack. The  
      attack follows a November Internet statement from the Iraqi node of al  
      Qaeda calling for attacks on Egyptian churches and specifically         
      mentioned the Church of the Two Saints. Though Egyptian officials are   
      claiming al Qaeda forces based outside of the country for the bombing,  
      it is very likely that jihadists elements based in Egypt are the        
      likely perpetrators.                                                    
                                                                              
      In the aftermath of Egypt*s two main jihadist groups, Gamaah            
      al-Islamiyah and Tandheem al-Jihad * that were very active in the late  
      1990s * having renounced violence and openly criticized al Qaeda,       
      there have not been many jihadist attacks in the country. That said,    
      elements that broke off from these two groups and others that have      
      aligned with al Qaeda have been infrequently active in recent years     
      with the last attack taking place a little less than two years ago in   
      a commercial area of the capital that targeted foreigners, mainly       
      Europeans, and resulted in the death of one French woman.               
                                                                              
      The attack on the Church of the Two Saints comes at a time when Egypt   
      is in the middle of a succession process as the different camps within  
      the regime of the country*s 82-year old and ailing President Hosni      
      Mubarak are struggling with one another to find a successor who can     
      maintain the stability and political continuity. It is likely designed  
      to take advantage of the emerging uncertainty in the country and        
      create social unrest. The thing to watch for moving forward is whether  
      or not this attack marks the beginning of a new campaign of jihadist    
      attacks seeking to exploit a rare opportunity in attempts to undermine  
      the state, during the pending transition.                               
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 2, 2011 8:53:03 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 4 - U.S. Invades Iraq

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 4 - U.S. Invades Iraq                       
                                                                              
      January 2, 2011 | 1444 GMT                                              
                                                                              
      Choosing the 10 most important geopolitical events of the past decade   
      is a challenge. But STRATFOR analysts took on the task, and after a     
      robust debate, they produced our Top 10 Most Important Geopolitical     
      Events of the Decade. We have teamed up with our partner,               
      DigitalGlobe, the world*s leading commercial satellite imagery          
      company, to provide compelling images illustrating each of these key    
      events.                                                                 
                                                                              
      Join us as we count down the Top 10, unveiling an event daily starting  
      Dec. 27 and culminating Jan. 5, when we reveal our selection for the    
      single most important event of the decade.                              
                                                                              
      Click the link below to see STRATFOR*s explanation of each event along  
      with a satellite image.                                                 
                                                                              
      [IMG]                                                                   
      (click here to view interactive map)                                    
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
      Not For Publication                                                     
      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 3, 2011 5:28:19 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Intelligence Guidance: Week of Jan. 2, 2011

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Intelligence Guidance: Week of Jan. 2, 2011                              
                                                                              
      January 3, 2011 | 1119 GMT                                              
      Intelligence Guidance: Week of Jan. 2, 2010                             
      Egyptian riot police stand guard as Christians protest late Jan. 2      
      outside the Church of the Two Saints                                    
                                                                              
      Editor*s Note: The following is an internal STRATFOR document produced  
      to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a  
      forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and       
      evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.           
                                                                              
      New Guidance                                                            
                                                                              
      1. Egypt: We need to look into what is going on beneath the surface in  
      Egypt. There have been attacks on Christian churches in Nigeria, Egypt  
      and Iraq that suggest some level of coordination. Egypt needs to be     
      the center of our focus on this one because of the potential            
      implications for President Hosni Mubarak*s regime and Egypt*s regional  
      significance. Mubarak*s regime is in transition, and there is a great   
      deal of incentive for long-suppressed Islamist groups to move now. The  
      attack outside a Coptic church in Alexandria may lead to heightened     
      tensions between Christians and Muslims, and Mubarak may use the        
      situation to crack down on Islamist groups. How strong might an         
      Islamist resurgence be and what are its implications for internal       
      stability in Egypt? We need to monitor how the Mubarak regime           
      responds.                                                               
                                                                              
      2. Iran: Tehran appears to be facing a year of American weakness.       
      Washington appears set to continue to draw down its forces in Iraq in   
      2011, further weakening its hand there. Meanwhile, despite some         
      modicum of progress at the last round of nuclear talks, it is hard to   
      see Iran feeling real pressure that would force it to negotiate         
      meaningfully. What is Iran aiming for at this point? How aggressively   
      does it intend to push its position?                                    
                                                                              
      3. Iraq: Iraq, and the U.S. military presence there, is central to the  
      Iranian equation. How does Washington perceive the urgency of its       
      vulnerability there? Its options are limited. How will it seek to       
      rebalance its military and civilian presence in the country in 2011?    
      What sort of agreement will it seek with the new government in Baghdad  
      regarding the status of American forces beyond 2011, when all U.S.      
      military forces are currently slated to leave the country?              
                                                                              
      Existing Guidance                                                       
                                                                              
      1. Israel, Palestinian territories: The Israeli-Palestinian situation   
      in Gaza appears to be heating up. Hamas has resumed low-level rocket    
      fire against Israeli settlements and the Israelis have intensified      
      airstrikes. A senior Israeli officer has said that the question is not  
      whether there would be a war, but when it would occur. The motivation   
      on the Palestinian side appears to be derailing any peace talks with    
      the Palestinian National Authority. The Israeli motivation appears to   
      be asserting its own freedom for maneuverability following the          
      pressure from the Americans and the breach with Turkey. The Israelis    
      have announced that they would not apologize to Turkey * after weeks    
      of rumors that they would. Taken together, both sides have a reason     
      for wanting a round of fighting. We need to look for whether there      
      will be an incident to ignite conflict.                                 
                                                                              
      2. Russia: Now that the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START)     
      has passed, we need to watch the Russians to determine what it will     
      mean. By itself, it is irrelevant. As a signal of changing relations,   
      it might have some meaning. One place to look is Belarus, where the     
      elections were followed by the arrests of some of the losing            
      candidates. Poland has been involved there, as have the Russians. If    
      there is going to be a new relationship, it should show itself there.   
                                                                              
      3. China: The Chinese have raised interest rates for the second time    
      in 10 weeks. We need to understand what this means, particularly for    
      small- and medium-sized export-oriented firms. Increased interest       
      rates drive up the cost of Chinese imports in the long run * if         
      interest rates actually go up. There is always a distance between       
      Chinese announcements and Chinese reality. We need to see if rising     
      rates are translated into actual bank-to-business lending, and figure   
      out what that means for the economy.                                    
                                                                              
      4. Pakistan, Afghanistan: The U.S.-led International Security           
      Assistance Force has made progress militarily in Afghanistan, but the   
      Taliban have now retaliated in Kabul. The war will not turn on          
      intermittent militant attacks, even in the capital. We need to examine  
      how the Taliban view the American-led counterinsurgency-focused         
      strategy and how they consider reacting to it. Inextricable from all    
      this is Pakistan, where we need to look at how the United States views  
      the Afghan-Pakistani relationship and what it will seek to get out of   
      it in the year ahead.                                                   
                                                                              
      5. United States: U.S. State Department diplomatic cables continue to   
      trickle out of WikiLeaks. How are countries and their populations       
      reacting to the revelations made in the cables? What will be the        
      functional consequences for the practice of American diplomacy? Are     
      there any major rifts emerging? We need to keep track of the public     
      reaction and stay aware of any constraints domestic politics may place  
      on the countries in question. Though few radically new or unexpected    
      revelations have been unearthed, the release offers remarkably broad    
      insight into the world of American foreign policy as it takes place     
      behind closed doors. How do the leaks either confirm or call into       
      question standing STRATFOR assessments?                                 
                                                                              
      Related Special Topic Page                                              
        * Weekly Intelligence That Drives Our Analysis                        
                                                                              
      EURASIA                                                                 
                                                                              
        * Jan. 4-12: Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang will travel to Spain,    
          Germany and the United Kingdom.                                     
        * Jan. 5: Portugal will issue its first treasury bill auction of the  
          year.                                                               
        * Jan. 6: Belgium officially hands over the European Union*s          
          rotating presidency to Hungary.                                     
        * Jan. 7: Eastern Orthodox Christians celebrate Christmas Day.        
        * Jan. 10: More than 30,000 Romanian employees in the mining and      
          energy sectors have threatened to go on a full-blown strike on      
          this day if there are no negotiations to create new jobs and        
          prevent collective layoffs.                                         
        * Jan. 10: The breakaway Georgian republic of South Ossetia will      
          remove the Georgian lari currency from circulation in Leningorsk    
          district.                                                           
                                                                              
      MIDDLE EAST/SOUTH ASIA                                                  
                                                                              
        * Jan. 3-9: Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will attend and    
          speak at the Turkish Foreign Ministry*s annual conference of        
          ambassadors in Ankara and the eastern province of Erzurum.          
          Papandreou will join the foreign ministers of Afghanistan and       
          Pakistan to address Turkey*s ambassadors.                           
        * Jan. 5: The Kuwaiti parliament will hold a confidence vote on the   
          fate of Prime Minister Sheikh Nasser Muhammad al-Ahmad al-Sabah.    
                                                                              
      EAST ASIA                                                               
                                                                              
        * Unspecified Date: United States Deputy Secretary of State James     
          Steinberg is reputed to be heading to South Korea in early January  
          to coordinate policy on North Korea ahead of Chinese President Hu   
          Jintao*s visit to the United States later in the month.             
        * Jan. 3: Singapore*s Tan York Chor will take office as ambassador    
          to France.                                                          
        * Jan. 3: Indonesia will increase taxes in Jakarta on owners of       
          multiple automobiles.                                               
                                                                              
      AMERICAS                                                                
                                                                              
        * Jan. 3: South Korean Prime Minister Kim Hwang Sik will meet with    
          Paraguayan President Fernando Lugo and hold talks with Vice         
          President Luis Franco on boosting bilateral economic and            
          diplomatic cooperation.                                             
        * Jan. 3-7: Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi will meet U.S.       
          Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Washington.                   
        * Jan. 4: South Korean Prime Minister Kim Hwang Sik will begin a      
          three-day visit to Uruguayan President Jose Mujica and hold talks   
          with Senate leader and Vice President Danilo Astori, according to   
          Kim*s office.                                                       
        * Jan. 6-10: Japanese Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara will visit the   
          United States to hold talks with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary    
          Clinton in Washington, possibly on Jan. 7, over tensions on the     
          Korean Peninsula and other issues. He will also visit Florida Gov.  
          Rick Scott to pitch Japan*s Shinkansen high-speed railway, which    
          the state is considering purchasing.                                
                                                                              
      AFRICA                                                                  
                                                                              
        * Jan. 3: Nigeria*s ruling People*s Democratic Party will hold a      
          meeting between President Goodluck Jonathan and presidential        
          candidate Atiku Abubakar to work out issues concerning the          
          presidential screening process and presidential primary.            
        * Jan. 3: The three presidential delegates of the Economic Community  
          of West African States * Cape Verde*s Pedro Pires, Sierra Leone*s   
          Ernest Bai Koroma, and Benin*s Thomas Boni Yayi * are tentatively   
          scheduled to return to Cote d*Ivoire to continue negotiations with  
          incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo.                                 
        * Jan. 3: Nigeria*s ruling People*s Democratic Party will hold        
          primaries for candidates for the House of Representatives.          
        * Jan. 3: The Southern Sudan Referendum Commission will announce its  
          final verdict on all appeals presented to it during the voter       
          registration process.                                               
        * Jan. 4: Nigeria*s ruling People*s Democratic Party will hold        
          primaries for candidates to the Senate.                             
        * Jan. 6-19 - Chinese Vice Premier Hui Liangyu will make an official  
          visit to Mauritius, Zambia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo,   
          Cameroon and Senegal.                                               
        * Jan. 7: Media campaigns for the Jan. 9 Southern Sudanese            
          independence referendum will come to an end.                        
        * Jan. 8: Voter registration is scheduled to begin in Nigeria for     
          national elections in April.                                        
        * Jan. 8: Southern Sudanese President Salva Kiir has called for a     
          meeting of Southern Sudanese political leaders in Juba to discuss   
          priority issues before the Jan. 9 referendum vote.                  
        * Jan. 8: The Southern Sudan Referendum Commission will announce the  
          final voters* list for the Southern Sudanese independence           
          referendum.                                                         
        * Jan. 9: Nigeria*s Senior Staff Association of Electricity and       
          Allied Companies and the National Union of Electricity Employees    
          have given the Federal Government and the Power Holding Company of  
          Nigeria an ultimatum to implement a collective bargaining           
          agreement by this date or face a labor stoppage.                    
        * Jan. 9-15: Voting for the Southern Sudanese independence            
          referendum will occur.                                              
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
      Not For Publication                                                     
      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 3, 2011 7:15:25 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Hungary's Turn as EU President

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Hungary's Turn as EU President                                           
                                                                              
      January 3, 2011 | 1301 GMT                                              
      Hungary's Turn as EU President                                          
      GEORGES GOBET/AFP/Getty Images                                          
      EU Council President Herman Van Rompuy (R) shakes hands with Hungarian  
      Prime Minister Viktor Orban at EU headquarters Nov. 17                  
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      Hungary assumed the European Union*s six-month rotating presidency      
      Jan. 1. During its term, it will focus on reclaiming some visibility    
      for the EU member states* presidencies after Belgium*s turn at the      
      helm, which saw the country move into the background to allow its       
      former Prime Minister Herman Von Rompuy to establish himself as a       
      leader in the role of European Council president. Hungary*s agenda      
      will include many items of national and regional interest. It will      
      also have to handle the EU budgetary process for 2014-2020 * an issue   
      that is sure to be contentious.                                         
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      On Jan. 1, Hungary took over the six-month rotating EU presidency from  
      Belgium. Traditionally, the country that holds the presidency sets the  
      bloc*s agenda, mediates internal European disagreements and serves as   
      the main negotiator with other powers during its term. At least that    
      was the case before the appointment of former Belgian Prime Minister    
      Herman Von Rompuy as the permanent European Council president, a        
      position created with the implementation of the Lisbon Treaty in        
      January 2010. During Belgium*s EU presidency, the country moved into    
      the background, allowing its former prime minister to establish         
      himself as more of an authoritative figure within the EU                
      establishment. Since then, Van Rompuy has taken over intermediation     
      between member states and has played a leading role in implementing     
      German-imposed reforms to the EU economic rules.                        
                                                                              
      Hungary, however, does not intend to continue the trend of diminishing  
      the visibility of the member state holding the rotating presidency.     
      This means the most important aspect of the Hungarian presidency will   
      be its attempt to reclaim the initiative for the EU member states.      
                                                                              
      Following the final EU summit hosted by the Belgian presidency,         
      Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said that EU member states        
      *should not be afraid of being good patriots. * The idea that           
      nationalism is a danger for Europe is an idea I cannot accept.*         
      Orban*s point was that member states should not be sidelined by EU      
      institutions that work for a few powerful states. This is a             
      perspective shared by many of Hungary*s Central European neighbors, as  
      well as by smaller member states, who do not consider themselves part   
      of the European elite. For Germany and France, Van Rompuy*s role is     
      convenient because it grants them unfettered access to the permanent    
      European Council president (and with that access, the ability to apply  
      pressure). But member states like Hungary view Van Rompuy*s role with   
      suspicion, an attempt by Berlin and Paris to streamline the             
      decision-making process, which inevitably means sidelining states like  
      Hungary.                                                                
                                                                              
       The Wish List                                                          
                                                                              
      Every member state that holds the EU presidency brings with it a list   
      of issues it wants to address during its six months at the helm. Many   
      of these are issues of regional interest or specific national           
      interest, and many receive no attention due to various events and       
      crises that the country ends up having to deal with during its          
      presidency.                                                             
                                                                              
      Hungary's Turn as EU President                                          
                                                                              
      Hungary*s wish list includes several items intended to return Budapest  
      to a leadership role in Central and Eastern Europe. Hungary*s           
      governing center-right Fidesz party believes Hungary lost that          
      position during a decade of what it sees as political and economic      
      mismanagement at the hands of its political rivals. Budapest has        
      therefore outlined initiatives for hosting an Eastern Partnership       
      heads of state summit in May, pushing Croatia*s EU accession forward,   
      expanding the EU Schengen zone to include Bulgaria and Romania,         
      enhancing economic and environmental coordination of the Danube         
      region, starting the Serbia-Kosovo negotiations process, and            
      implementing an EU-wide Roma integration strategy.                      
                                                                              
      While the optimistic list will give Hungary and its confident new       
      government (Fidesz is one of the few governments in recent European     
      memory to have two-thirds of the seats in its country*s parliament)     
      the visibility it craves on the European stage, it is not clear         
      whether these goals will be met. The Danube Strategy has no financial   
      support, France and Germany oppose Romania and Bulgaria*s Schengen      
      entry, the Eastern Partnership is a Polish-Swedish initiative of which  
      Hungary recently a part, and Croatian accession ultimately depends on   
      the effort Croatia puts into concluding the remaining (and thorny)      
      negotiating chapters with the European Union, rather than any decision  
      to be made by Budapest.                                                 
                                                                              
       The *Huge Fight*                                                       
                                                                              
      Beyond the expansive wish list, Budapest*s presidency can ultimately    
      be boiled down to a single item: the 2014-2020 EU budgetary period.     
      The European Union sets its budgets in six-year intervals, with         
      minimal modifications to the annual budgets possible once the numbers   
      for the interval are set. The United Kingdom wants to see the budget    
      reduced to reflect its own deep budget cuts at home. France and         
      Germany are largely in agreement with London, particularly because      
      they do not want to see the new member states in Central Europe         
      receive an increase in funding. Europe therefore can expect three very  
      contentious years of negotiations on the new budget.                    
                                                                              
      For Hungary * and Poland, which will take over the rotating EU          
      presidency after Hungary * this is a key issue for 2011 and beyond.     
      With two Central European member states in charge in successive terms   
      for the first time, Budapest and Warsaw hope to set the stage for the   
      budget negotiations. Hungarian Foreign Minister Janos Martonyi has      
      already said that *a huge fight* was brewing within the union over the  
      issue, with wealthier old member states on one end and poorer new       
      member states on the other.                                             
                                                                              
      However, in order for Hungary to create an effective change in policy   
      on the matter in the next six months, it will need to create a broader  
      coalition than just its fellow new member states. The coalition         
      Hungary and Poland will be able to gather comprises only 20 percent of  
      the EU population, and the idea of increasing the budget runs counter   
      to the interests of more than 50 percent * represented by Germany,      
      France, the United Kingdom and other fiscally conservative member       
      states, such as The Netherlands and those of Scandinavian. The chances  
      of success, therefore, are low.                                         
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
      Not For Publication                                                     
      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 3, 2011 8:11:42 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 3 - Lehman Brothers Bankrupt

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 3 - Lehman Brothers Bankrupt                
                                                                              
      January 3, 2011 | 1319 GMT                                              
                                                                              
      Choosing the 10 most important geopolitical events of the past decade   
      is a challenge. But STRATFOR analysts took on the task, and after a     
      robust debate, they produced our Top 10 Most Important Geopolitical     
      Events of the Decade. We have teamed up with our partner,               
      DigitalGlobe, the world*s leading commercial satellite imagery          
      company, to provide compelling images illustrating each of these key    
      events.                                                                 
                                                                              
      Join us as we count down the Top 10, unveiling an event daily starting  
      Dec. 27 and culminating Jan. 5, when we reveal our selection for the    
      single most important event of the decade.                              
                                                                              
      Click the link below to see STRATFOR*s explanation of each event along  
      with a satellite image.                                                 
                                                                              
      [IMG]                                                                   
      (click here to view interactive map)                                    
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
      Not For Publication                                                     
      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 3, 2011 11:05:04 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Stratfor's World Snapshot

      Stratfor logo                      January 3, 2011                      
     Stratfor's World Snapshot                                                
                                                                              
      Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 3 - Lehman Brothers Bankrupt               
      STRATFOR                                                                
                                                                              
     Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 3 - Lehman Brothers Bankrupt                
                                                                              
      January 3, 2011 1319 GMT                                                
      STRATFOR analysts provide an explanation of our Top Ten Most Important  
      Geopolitical Events of the decade. We've also teamed up with our        
      partner, DigitalGlobe, the world's leading commercial satellite         
      imagery company, to provide compelling images illustrating each of      
      these key events. (With STRATFOR interactive photo essay.) [more]       
      Hungary's Turn as EU President                                          
                                                                              
     Hungary's Turn as EU President                                           
                                                                              
      January 3, 2011 1301 GMT                                                
      Hungary became president of the European Union on Jan. 1. Its agenda    
      will include issues of national and regional interests, as well as the  
      EU budgetary process for 2014-2020. [more]                              
      Intelligence Guidance: Week of Jan. 2, 2011                             
                                                                              
     Intelligence Guidance: Week of Jan. 2, 2011                              
                                                                              
      January 3, 2011 1119 GMT                                                
      The following is an internal STRATFOR document produced to provide      
      high-level guidance to our analysts. [more]                             
      Egypt: Jihadists Trying to Take Advantage of Transition?                
                                                                              
     Egypt: Jihadists Trying to Take Advantage of Transition?                 
                                                                              
      January 1, 2011 1740 GMT                                                
      The Jan. 1 attack on the Church of the Two Saints comes at a time when  
      Egypt is in the middle of a succession process and may be the start of  
      a jihadist campaign seeking to undermine the state. [more]              
                                                                              
      More Analysis &gt;&gt;                                                        
                                                                              
     Situation Reports                                                        
                                                                              
     Venezuela: 6 Indicted For Misappropriating Funds                         
                                                                              
      January 3, 2011 1651 GMT                                                
      The Venezuelan Attorney General's Office has indicted two active-duty   
      Venezuelan army captains, three bank employees and a private citizen    
      for allegedly misappropriating funds at state-run bank... [more]        
                                                                              
     Sudan: Darfuri Rebel Group Reaches Deal With Government                  
                                                                              
      January 3, 2011 1625 GMT                                                
                                                                              
     Indonesia: China Interested In Building Papua Seaports, Airports         
                                                                              
      January 3, 2011 1611 GMT                                                
                                                                              
     Cuba: First VP Arrives In Venezuela                                      
                                                                              
      January 3, 2011 1603 GMT                                                
      More Situation Reports &gt;&gt;                                               
                                                                              
     Weekly Intelligence Reports                                              
                                                                              
      Separating Terror from Terrorism                                        
                                                                              
     Separating Terror from Terrorism                                         
                                                                              
      December 30, 2010 0955 GMT                                              
      A terrorist attack does not have to succeed to cause panic and alarm    
      as long as terror magnifiers react accordingly. [more]                  
      Making Sense of the START Debate                                        
                                                                              
     Making Sense of the START Debate                                         
                                                                              
      December 28, 2010 0950 GMT                                              
      Europe: The New Plan                                                    
                                                                              
     Europe: The New Plan                                                     
                                                                              
      December 21, 2010 1000 GMT                                              
      Mexico and the Cartel Wars in 2010                                      
                                                                              
     Mexico and the Cartel Wars in 2010                                       
                                                                              
      December 16, 2010 0946 GMT                                              
      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 3, 2011 3:43:29 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Mexico Security Memo: Jan. 3, 2011

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Mexico Security Memo: Jan. 3, 2011                                       
                                                                              
      January 3, 2011 | 2101 GMT                                              
      Mexico Security Memo: Dec. 27, 2010                                     
                                                                              
       La Familia Breakdown                                                   
                                                                              
      Mexican Federal Police Regional Security Director Luis Cardenas         
      Palomino said La Familia Michoacana (LFM) has fallen into disarray and  
      been dismembered since the death of LFM leader Nazario *El Chayo*       
      Moreno Gonzalez in a Dec. 17 firefight with Federal Police. Palomino    
      made these statements at the Dec. 31 presentation in Morelia,           
      Michoacan state, of recently arrested LFM plaza boss Francisco *El      
      Bigotes* Lopez Villanueva, who reportedly led operations in La Mira     
      and Guacamayas.                                                         
                                                                              
      Palomino did caveat his statement, however, saying a few LFM cells      
      continue to operate in certain areas of the state. He continued that    
      such cells were operating independently and were struggling *           
      resorting to conducting robberies to maintain a cash flow to the        
      remaining individuals * citing intelligence from the Federal Police     
      intelligence unit.                                                      
                                                                              
      A letter reportedly from LFM began circulating in Michoacan on Jan. 2   
      saying the group would cease all criminal activities during January to  
      show the people of Michoacan that LFM was not responsible for the       
      robberies and other crimes they have been accused of by the Federal     
      Police. An unnamed official with the Michoacan attorney general*s       
      office said the authenticity of the letter has not yet been verified.   
                                                                              
      While the group has suffered tremendous setbacks in the latter half of  
      2010, its top-tier leadership and chain of command remain intact.       
      Lopez Villanueva reportedly revealed during his interrogation that he   
      continues to receive direct orders from LFM operational leader Jose de  
      Jesus Mendez Vargas and now-LFM No. 2 Servando *La Tuta* Gomez          
      Martinez.                                                               
                                                                              
      LFM has faced both a joint Mexican government operation against it and  
      a sustained joint offensive by the Cartel Pacifico Sur (CPS) and Los    
      Zetas in both southern and northern Michoacan. Moreover, its former     
      partners in the Sinaloa Federation abandoned LFM after the latter       
      attempted to move into Sinaloa territory. This has significantly        
      disrupted LFM*s operational capability, but it has not caused the       
      complete dismemberment of LFM claimed by Palomino.                      
                                                                              
      As we have frequently observed, whenever a Mexican drug trafficking     
      organization experiences a setback to its ability to traffic drugs,     
      they resort to other criminal activities to supplement their income.    
      For example, the Arellano Felix Organization resorted to kidnappings    
      and extortion in the early part of the last decade, while more          
      recently we have seen Los Zetas and the Vicente Carrillo Fuentes        
      organization resort to the same practices in Monterrey and Juarez,      
      respectively. The allegations that LFM cells have resorted to robbery   
      campaigns to supplement their lost cash flow from drug trafficking is   
      therefore not surprising. Also like other groups before it * such as    
      the Arellano Felix Organization in Tijuana, which kept a low profile    
      while it regrouped after several of its top leaders were either killed  
      or arrested * LFM appears to be lowering its profile (albeit            
      telegraphing its intentions with fliers and e-mails).                   
                                                                              
      STRATFOR sources have reported that the group*s remaining leadership    
      is not located within LFM*s home territory for both security and        
      personal reasons, but mainly to ensure the continuity of the            
      organization. After being designated the most violent organized         
      criminal group in Mexico by former federal Attorney General Eduardo     
      Medina Mora in May 2009, the Mexican government has made LFM a top      
      target. But while the government has experienced significant successes  
      against the group, LFM*s deep networks in Michoacan and even in the     
      United States mean that the group is far from being completely          
      dismembered.                                                            
                                                                              
       2010, a Record for Drug-Related Killings                               
                                                                              
      Mexico witnessed 11,583 drug related murders in 2010, breaking the      
      previous record of 6,598 set in 2009. The development of new conflicts  
      in Tamaulipas, Nuevo Leon, Morelos, Mexico, Colima and Jalisco states,  
      as well as persisting conflicts in Chihuahua, Sinaloa, Durango,         
      Michoacan and Guerrero states worsened this already-tattered security   
      environment. This geography of violence has changed quite a bit since   
      2009, when the violence was concentrated mainly in five states:         
      Chihuahua, Sinaloa, Guerrero, Michoacan and Baja California.            
                                                                              
      One of the main reasons for the tremendous increase in violence in      
      2010 was the conflict between the Gulf cartel and Los Zetas, which      
      finally boiled over into all-out warfare in February 2010. This new     
      conflict between the two former partners spread violence throughout     
      much of the eastern half of the country, territory where the two        
      groups had significant influence (and common territory), and where      
      violence had remained at relatively low levels compared to other        
      regions of Mexico.                                                      
                                                                              
      Another source of violence emerged from the rift in the Beltran Leyva   
      Organization between the faction loyal to Hector Beltran Leyva, now     
      known as the CPS, and the faction loyal to Edgar *La Barbie* Valdez     
      Villarreal. This has seen escalating conflict in the southern states    
      of Morelos, Mexico and Guerrero.                                        
                                                                              
      This plus the ongoing conflict between the Vicente Carrillo Fuentes     
      (VCF) organization and the Sinaloa Federation in Chihuahua state; LFM   
      and the CPS in Michoacan and Guerrero states; and the persistent        
      low-level fighting between the CPS and the Sinaloa Federation in        
      Sinaloa state yielded 2010*s unprecedented death toll.                  
                                                                              
      According to several media reports and STRATFOR sources, the fighting   
      in Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon state has been more severe than reported   
      by the press and federal security forces in the region. This media      
      blackout in large part has been due to self-censorship because of the   
      omnipresent threat from Los Zetas and the Gulf cartel. State and city   
      officials simply do not acknowledge death tolls in the region, and      
      funeral homes have stopped tracking the number of corpses they process  
      for fear of retribution from one of the criminal organizations in the   
      region. Total 2010 drug-related deaths in Mexico thus actually may be   
      several hundred to several thousand higher than reported.               
                                                                              
      Mexico Security Memo: Jan. 3, 2010                                      
      (click here to view interactive graphic)                                
                                                                              
         Dec. 27                                                              
                                                                              
        * Unidentified gunmen opened fire on a police car in China, Nuevo     
          Leon state, kidnapping and later decapitating the officer driving   
          the vehicle. Two bystanders were injured during the attack.         
        * Police announced the liberation of 50 day laborers held by          
          suspected kidnappers in the municipality of Caborca, Sonora state.  
          Police arrested five suspects.                                      
        * Military authorities announced the seizure of 770 kilograms (about  
          1,700 pounds) of marijuana and approximately 130 firearms in        
          Tamazula, Durango state.                                            
        * Authorities discovered a dismembered body inside several plastic    
          bags in the Lomas de Medina neighborhood of Leon, Guanajuato        
          state.                                                              
                                                                              
         Dec. 28                                                              
                                                                              
        * Unidentified gunmen kidnapped a police officer in the Cortijo del   
          Rio neighborhood of southern Monterrey, Nuevo Leon state.           
        * Unidentified attackers detonated grenades outside a police          
          building in the municipality of San Francisco de los Romos,         
          Aguascalientes state, killing a suspect inside a police car and     
          injuring a police officer.                                          
        * Four people were killed and two were injured during a firefight     
          between police and suspected members of the La Linea criminal       
          group in the Cristobal Colon and Liberacion neighborhoods of        
          Durango, Durango state. Thirteen people were arrested.              
                                                                              
         Dec. 29                                                              
                                                                              
        * Military authorities announced the arrests of 11 suspects in        
          Ciudad Obregon, Sonora state. Soldiers seized 12 firearms during    
          the raid.                                                           
        * Four people were injured in a firefight between Federal Police and  
          state investigative agents near the Durango state attorney          
          general*s office in Durango, Durango state. The incident            
          reportedly began when a truck from the state investigative agency   
          failed to stop at a police checkpoint.                              
        * Unidentified gunmen opened fire on a house in the Leyes de Reforma  
          neighborhood in Acapulco, Guerrero state, killing one man. The      
          attackers then used explosive devices to burn the house and three   
          nearby vehicles.                                                    
        * Unidentified gunmen attacked a police station in Monterrey, Nuevo   
          Leon state, killing two police officers and a medic.                
                                                                              
         Dec. 30                                                              
                                                                              
        * Authorities discovered the bodies of five shooting victims near a   
          road in Sainapuchi, Chihuahua state.                                
        * Authorities discovered the severed head of an unidentified man in   
          Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state. The victim*s body was found in a    
          nearby building under construction.                                 
        * Unidentified gunmen shot and killed two senior citizens in their    
          home in the municipality of Pedro Ascencio de Alquisiras, Guerrero  
          state.                                                              
        * An unidentified gunman shot and killed the son of a U.S. Internal   
          Revenue Service agent at a restaurant in Culiacan, Sinaloa state.   
                                                                              
         Dec. 31                                                              
                                                                              
        * Soldiers arrested 10 suspected kidnappers and freed two kidnapping  
          victims at a hotel in the San Bernabe neighborhood of Monterrey,    
          Nuevo Leon state.                                                   
        * Soldiers arrested the suspected chief of La Familia Michoacana for  
          the towns of La Mira and Guacamaya, Michoacan state.                
        * Unidentified gunmen killed six people at a car wash in Mazatlan,    
          Sinaloa state.                                                      
        * The body of a kidnapper seized from a prison transport by a group   
          of gunmen on Dec. 27 was found hanging from a bridge in Monterrey,  
          Nuevo Leon state.                                                   
                                                                              
         Jan. 1                                                               
                                                                              
        * Unidentified gunmen shot and killed an employee of the Mexican      
          consulate in Chicago in El Naranjo, Guerrero state.                 
        * Four people were killed and five people were injured when gunmen    
          opened fire on a family in a house in Coyuca de Catalan, Guerrero   
          state.                                                              
                                                                              
         Jan. 2                                                               
                                                                              
        * Two police officers were arrested in Nezahualcoyotl, Mexico state,  
          for allegedly stealing a car.                                       
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 3, 2011 4:03:02 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Dispatch: China Considers Buying European Debt

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Dispatch: China Considers Buying European Debt                           
                                                                              
      January 3, 2011 | 2154 GMT                                              
      Click on image below to watch video:                                    
      [IMG]                                                                   
                                                                              
      Analyst Marko Papic examines speculation that China is considering      
      buying European outstanding debt as the Chinese vice premier prepares   
      to visit Europe.                                                        
                                                                              
      Editor*s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition       
      technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete         
      accuracy.                                                               
                                                                              
      Chinese Deputy Premier Li visits Spain, Germany and the United Kingdom  
      from Jan. 4 to 12. His visit is fueling speculation that China is       
      considering buying a considerable portion of European outstanding debt  
      in 2011.                                                                
                                                                              
      Li*s visit to Europe is significant because he is somebody who is       
      speculated to be the successor to the current premier, Wen. Li*s visit  
      also comes as China continues to consider diversifying its purchases    
      of U.S. Treasury bills to other sovereign debt as well, and Europe      
      certainly has ample amount of sovereign debt. In terms of what China    
      actually gets out of buying European debt, there really are four        
      different issues. The first is of course the diversification argument,  
      which we already mentioned. The second is the idea that it could make   
      smaller deals with specific countries. Earlier in 2010, it says that    
      it would continue to purchase Greek debt and this led to successful     
      purchases of several assets in Greece that Beijing hopes will be        
      really a beachhead into Central and Eastern Europe. The third issue is  
      protectionism. The Chinese are hoping that their willingness to         
      consider purchasing some distressed debt in Europe will lead to a more  
      relaxed attitude by the Europeans when it comes to trade protectionist  
      attitudes. Only recently the Italian EU commissioner, Antonia Tajani,   
      said that he would like to see the EU set up something akin to the      
      U.S. Committee on Foreign Investments, an agency that would             
      essentially review whether or not a particular European asset should    
      be sold to a foreign bidder, and he specifically claimed that Chinese   
      purchases of various assets in Europe have to do with purchasing        
      essentially Europe*s technology at a low cost.                          
                                                                              
      Finally, China would like to see the EU rescind its embargo on arms     
      trades with Beijing. This is something that a number of European        
      countries have wanted to see ended for while; the French of course      
      stand to gain considerably from potential arms sales to China.          
      However, the likelihood of anything really moving the Europeans in      
      that direction is very low. The U.S. pressure on its allies within the  
      European Union * such as the United Kingdom, but also other NATO        
      member states * would be extreme, and therefore it is quite unlikely    
      that the Europeans will be able to get the unanimity necessary to       
      overturn the embargo.                                                   
                                                                              
      Thus far there is no evidence proving that the Chinese bought a         
      considerable amount of European debt in 2010 or that they*re willing    
      to purchase more in 2011 other than public statements. However, public  
      statements may be in the end all that the Europeans are looking for     
      from Beijing. Mere mention that the Chinese are thinking of putting     
      some portion * even a small portion * of their $2.7 trillion worth of   
      foreign exchange behind European debt is worrying for investors         
      thinking of shorting the euro in 2011, and it may stay the investors    
      at least for the first quarter of 2011 in terms of betting against the  
      euro. It will therefore be interesting to watch in the first quarter    
      of 2011 whether the Chinese public statements of support have any       
      measurable impact on interest rates during bond sales or whether there  
      is greater demand for European bonds, especially of distressed          
      countries like Spain and Italy. Furthermore, it will be interesting to  
      see whether Li*s visit actually brings any return on potential Chinese  
      investments.                                                            
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 4, 2011 4:11:49 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Geopolitical Weekly : Egypt and the Destruction of Churches:
     Strategic Implications

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Egypt and the Destruction of Churches: Strategic Implications            
                                                                              
      January 4, 2011                                                         
                                                                              
      Making Sense of the START Debate                                        
                                                                              
      By George Friedman                                                      
                                                                              
      Over the past few days, Christian churches have been attacked in at     
      least two countries * Nigeria and Egypt * while small packages          
      containing improvised explosive devices were placed on the doorsteps    
      of Christian families in Iraq. Attacks against Christians are not       
      uncommon in the Islamic world, driven by local issues and groups, and   
      it is unclear whether these latest attacks were simply coincidental     
      and do not raise the threat to a new level or whether they indicate     
      the existence of a new, coordinated, international initiative. There    
      is a strong case to be made for the idea that there is nothing new in   
      all of this.                                                            
                                                                              
      Yet I am struck by the close timing of events in three distant and      
      dispersed countries. Certainly, Egyptian intelligence services are      
      looking for any regional connections (e.g., whether Iraqi operatives    
      recruited the Egyptian bomber). While there have been previous          
      bombings in Egypt, they have focused on tourists, not churches. What    
      is important is this: If the recent attacks are not coincidental, then  
      a coordinated campaign is being conducted against Christian churches    
      that spans at least these countries. And it is a network that has       
      evaded detection by intelligence services.                              
                                                                              
      Obviously, this is speculative. What is clear, however, is that the     
      attack on a church in one country * Egypt * is far from common and was  
      particularly destructive. Egypt has been relatively quiet in terms of   
      terrorism, and there have been few recent attacks on the large Coptic   
      Christian population. The Egyptian government has been effective in     
      ruthlessly suppressing Islamist extremists and has been active in       
      sharing intelligence on terrorism with American, Israeli and other      
      Muslim governments. Its intelligence apparatus has been one of the      
      mainstays of global efforts to limit terrorism as well as keep Egypt*s  
      domestic opposition in check.                                           
                                                                              
      Therefore, the attack in Egypt is significant for no other reason than  
      that it happened and represents a failure of Egyptian security. While   
      such failures are inevitable, what made this failure significant was    
      that it occurred in tight sequence with attacks on multiple Christian   
      targets in Iraq and Nigeria and after a threat al Qaeda made last       
      month against Egyptian Copts. This was a warning, which in my mind      
      increases the possibility of coordinated action, but the Egyptians      
      failed to block it.                                                     
                                                                              
       Egypt*s Historical Significance                                        
                                                                              
      Egypt is the largest Arab country, with a population of about 80        
      million. Cairo is the historic center of Arab culture and served as     
      the engine shaping the Arab response to the collapse of the British     
      and French empires. Under Gamal Abdul Nasser, the political founder of  
      the Pan-Arab (as opposed to Pan-Islamic) movement. Egypt was a          
      radical, militarized engine in the region. When Egypt allied with the   
      Soviet Union in 1956, it redefined the geopolitics of the               
      Mediterranean region. When it switched alliances in the 1970s,          
      geopolitics changed as well. More than any other Arab country, Egypt    
      matters. When it is assertive, it frames regional politics. When it     
      withdraws into itself, the region becomes prey to outside forces,       
      Islamic and otherwise.                                                  
                                                                              
      That last major move made by Egypt was signing a peace agreement with   
      Israel in 1979 that demilitarized the Sinai Peninsula and removed the   
      strategic threat to the Israel*s south. This in turn freed Israel to    
      focus its primary interests to the north and to develop its economy,    
      leaving Syria isolated and dependent on Iran. The consequences of the   
      treaty were enormous and have defined the geopolitics of the region     
      for a generation.                                                       
                                                                              
      The death of President Anwar Sadat in 1982 and the subsequent           
      elevation of Hosni Mubarak to the position led to a period in which     
      Egyptian national strategy was frozen into place. Egypt*s core          
      relationship was with the United States. It was secure on all external  
      fronts. However, as Sadat*s death showed, the treaty with Israel        
      generated resistance inside Egypt. Whereas the Egyptian regime derived  
      from a secular Arabist point of view, for which the peace with Israel   
      posed ideological but not theological problems, the opposition, built   
      around the Muslim Brotherhood, was Islamist and therefore opposed to    
      the treaty on theological grounds.                                      
                                                                              
      The assassination of Sadat initiated a period of intense activity by    
      Egyptian security forces to destroy the assassins* organization as      
      well as Islamist forces in the country that opposed the regime and the  
      treaty with Israel. A combination of ruthless intelligence and          
      security services, disorganization among the Islamists and deep         
      divisions in Egyptian society reduced the Islamist threat to the        
      regime to a weak political force and terrorism to a fairly rare         
      occurrence.                                                             
                                                                              
      It was this focus on internal security that froze Egyptian foreign      
      policy into place. First, the internal situation towered in             
      significance over foreign policy. Second, conducting a vigorous         
      foreign policy in the face of internal terrorism was dangerous, if not  
      impossible. Third, the fight against Islamic radicalism was an          
      intelligence war, and Egypt needed the intelligence cooperation of      
      other countries, particularly the United States and Israel. The         
      internal threat not only froze Egypt*s foreign policy but also          
      contributed to social and economic inequality.                          
                                                                              
      As a result, Egypt appeared * from the outside at least * to have       
      disappeared from history. News from Cairo galvanized the world from     
      the 1950s to the 1970s, but by the 1980s, Egypt had ceased to be a      
      player in the region. Even after 2001, when all American allies were    
      mobilized in the war against militant Islam, Egypt*s role was to        
      control its own terrorist movement. It achieved that, which was an      
      enormous benefit to the United States. Had Egypt radicalized, it would  
      have been a profound strategic challenge to the United States. Far      
      from radicalizing, Egypt became the country neither the United States   
      nor the Israelis had to worry about.                                    
                                                                              
       Egypt*s Current Climate                                                
                                                                              
      Mubarak is old and, by some accounts, suffering from cancer. He had     
      hoped to have his son, Gamal, replace him, but this has run into        
      resistance from the political and military apparatus that supports him  
      and that derives from the regime Nasser founded. The regime has the     
      support of some of the population, particularly government workers who  
      make their living from it. At the same time, there are secularists who  
      want to see a more liberal, business-oriented regime. The argument      
      against them has been the threat of the Islamist radicals, who had      
      been seen as a spent force.                                             
                                                                              
      That*s one reason the attack on a church in Egypt is important. The     
      argument that the Islamist threat has been dealt with is challenged by  
      the attack, and with it the argument that the continued focus on a      
      security state is archaic. Should there be follow-on attacks,           
      Mubarak*s policies become re-legitimized, and can be passed on to       
      whoever follows him as Egypt*s leader.                                  
                                                                              
      And this brings us to the heart of the matter. It is unclear what is    
      stirring beneath the surface of Egypt. Whatever it might be is by       
      necessity cautious. But radical Islamism has caught the imagination of  
      people in other Muslim and Arab countries, and it is unreasonable to    
      assume that it has passed Egypt by. Indeed, it was very much there      
      until Mubarak suppressed it, and it is unlikely to have gone away.      
                                                                              
      The most vulnerable time in Egypt is the period before Mubarak leaves   
      the scene. No firm new government will be in place, no dynamic          
      leadership will be provided. If the radical Islamists assert            
      themselves now, they could well draw down the wrath of the security     
      services. In that case, they would be no worse off than they were       
      before. But if the impending succession crisis divides an already       
      sclerotic state, it might open the door to a resurgence of radical      
      Islamism.                                                               
                                                                              
       Egypt*s Political Future                                               
                                                                              
      This, in turn, would introduce two possibilities. In one, Egypt enters  
      a period of internal strife and instability and the regime fails to     
      suppress the Islamists but the Islamists fail to take power. In the     
      other, a massive Islamist movement repudiates the Nasserite heritage    
      and establishes an Islamic republic in Egypt. There are many            
      countervailing forces to the second scenario, but it is not an          
      impossible scenario in the long run, even if instability is probably    
      the most Islamists can hope for. And there is, of course, a third       
      scenario * an orderly succession.                                       
                                                                              
      Let*s consider for a moment what an Islamist Egypt would mean. The      
      Mediterranean, which has been a strategically quiet region, would come  
      to life. The United States would have to reshape its strategy, and      
      Israel would have to refocus its strategic policy. Turkey*s             
      renaissance would have to take seriously a new Islamic power in the     
      Mediterranean. Most important, an Islamist Egypt would give dramatic    
      impetus to radical Islam throughout the Arab world. One of the          
      linchpins of American and European policy in the region would be gone   
      in a crucial part of the world. The transformation of Egypt into an     
      Islamist country would be the single most significant event we could    
      imagine in the Islamic world, beyond on Iranian bomb.                   
                                                                              
      If this were happening in most other countries, it would be a matter    
      of relative unimportance. But Egypt used to be the dominant Arab        
      power, and the last 20 years have been, in my view, an abnormal         
      period. Egyptian inwardness has been driven by an effective effort to   
      repress radical Islamists. It has taken all of the regime*s energy.     
      But the internal dynamic in Egypt is certainly changing as the          
      succession approaches, and the recent church attack was a rare failure  
      of Egyptian security. If such failures were to continue, it would be    
      difficult to predict the outcome.                                       
                                                                              
      For a country as important as Egypt, it is a matter to be taken         
      seriously. It is certainly not clear how significant the attack on the  
      church was, whether it is the beginning of something bigger. At this    
      point, however, anything out of the ordinary in Egypt must be taken     
      seriously, if for no other reason than because this is Egypt, Egypt     
      matters more than most countries, and Egypt is changing.                
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 4, 2011 5:40:20 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Potential Significance of a Local Afghan Deal

      [IMG]                                                                   
                                                                              
      Tuesday, January 4, 2011       [IMG] STRATFOR.COM [IMG] Diary Archives  
                                                                              
                  Potential Significance of a Local Afghan Deal               
                                                                              
      A local peace deal may be emerging in one of the most violent corners   
      of Afghanistan. U.S. Maj. Gen. Robert Mills, commander of Regional      
      Command Southwest and commanding general of First Marine Expeditionary  
      Force (Forward), on Monday confirmed reports from the weekend that the  
      largest tribe in Sangin district in Helmand province has pledged to     
      end fighting and expel *foreign* fighters from the area. The Taliban,   
      for their part, remain silent on the issue. But according to reports,   
      the deal was struck with the Alikozai tribe in the Sarwan-Qalah area    
      of the Upper Sangin Valley (only a portion of Sangin district), which   
      controls some 30 villages. The agreement was made between tribal        
      elders and the provincial governor, though the U.S.-led International   
      Security Assistance Force (ISAF) was involved.                          
                                                                              
      ISAF has neither the troops nor the staying power to actually defeat    
      the Taliban. While they may yet succeed in eroding the strength and     
      cohesion of the Taliban phenomenon, any lasting exit strategy would     
      require some sort of political accommodation. In a sense, this can be   
      compared to Iraq, where the 2007 surge of American combat forces *      
      while not without its impact * did not turn the tide in Mesopotamia so  
      much as play a supporting role in a political arrangement with Sunni    
      insurgents (in the previously restive Anbar province and beyond) to     
      not only cease supporting but to actively cooperate in the form of      
      both local militias and, critically, intelligence sharing, in the war   
      against the foreign jihadists that they had previously fought           
      alongside. While Iraqi and regional politics remain very much in flux,  
      this paved the way for a national-scale counter to the Sunni            
      insurgency and foreign jihadist threat.                                 
                                                                              
      *The history of insurgency provides little to suggest that recent       
      gains presage or herald an entity near defeat.*                         
                                                                              
      Due to terrain and demography, power in Afghanistan * militarily and    
      politically * is far more localized. While a comprehensive deal with    
      the Pashtun, the ethnic group at the heart of the Taliban insurgency,   
      could yield considerable results, the Pashtun do not fear any other     
      ethnic group in the country as the Sunnis in Iraq feared the Shia. And  
      the nature of local and tribal loyalties * not to mention the now       
      cross-border and transnational Taliban phenomenon * makes settling on,  
      much less enforcing, a nationwide solution far more problematic.        
      Indeed, the Alikozai tribe speaks for only a small portion of Sangin    
      (not to mention the potential impact of tribal rivalries) while the     
      provincial government in Helmand has very little ability to impose or   
      enforce much of anything on its own.                                    
                                                                              
      But while this most recent development in Sangin does not mark the      
      beginning of a comprehensive solution, it remains noteworthy. Under     
      the American counterinsurgency-focused strategy, forces have been       
      massed in Helmand and neighboring Kandahar provinces * the heartland    
      and home turf of the Afghan Taliban. In places like Nawa and Marjah,    
      the sustained application of force has pushed the Taliban from          
      territory that they once held uncontested. And the ability to turn the  
      tide politically in former insurgent strongholds (as in Anbar           
      province) has the potential to have wider significance.                 
                                                                              
      Yet, it is classic guerrilla strategy to fall back in the face of       
      concentrated conventional military force. STRATFOR does not trust the   
      recent quietude of the Taliban in Helmand and beyond. The history of    
      insurgency provides little to suggest that recent gains presage or      
      herald an entity near defeat. And while ISAF*s claims of progress in    
      terms of undermining Taliban funds and the capturing and killing of     
      its leadership do not appear to be without grounds (though the true     
      seniority of those killed and the operational impact of those losses    
      remain pivotal questions), that does not necessarily translate into a   
      more lasting political solution.                                        
                                                                              
      After all, while the United States succeeded in Iraq in extracting      
      itself from an internal counterinsurgency battle that it was losing,    
      the fate of the wider region is anything but settled. Transnational     
      and regional issues * as well as the larger American grand strategy *   
      will continue to loom long after American and allied forces begin to    
      leave Afghanistan. But finding a solution whereby ISAF can extract      
      itself from the day-to-day work of a difficult counterinsurgency where  
      foreign forces are at an inherent disadvantage is of central            
      importance to the current campaign in Afghanistan. And all caveats      
      aside, political accommodation in Sangin must be seen as a positive     
      development. Just how positive remains to be seen and will warrant      
      close scrutiny in the weeks and months ahead.                           
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 4, 2011 7:24:13 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 2 - China Enters the WTO

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 2 - China Enters the WTO                    
                                                                              
      January 4, 2011 | 1316 GMT                                              
                                                                              
      Choosing the 10 most important geopolitical events of the past decade   
      is a challenge. But STRATFOR analysts took on the task, and after a     
      robust debate, they produced our Top 10 Most Important Geopolitical     
      Events of the Decade. We have teamed up with our partner,               
      DigitalGlobe, the world*s leading commercial satellite imagery          
      company, to provide compelling images illustrating each of these key    
      events.                                                                 
                                                                              
      Join us as we count down the Top 10, unveiling an event daily starting  
      Dec. 27 and culminating Jan. 5, when we reveal our selection for the    
      single most important event of the decade.                              
                                                                              
      Click the link below to see STRATFOR*s explanation of each event along  
      with a satellite image.                                                 
                                                                              
      [IMG]                                                                   
      (click here to view interactive map)                                    
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
      Not For Publication                                                     
      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 4, 2011 9:00:25 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Governor of Pakistan's Main Province Assassinated

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Governor of Pakistan's Main Province Assassinated                        
                                                                              
      January 4, 2011 | 1421 GMT                                              
      Punjab's Governor Slain in Pakistan                                     
      AAMIR QURESHI/AFP/Getty Images                                          
      Pakistani policemen secure the site of a fatal attack on Punjab Gov.    
      Salman Taseer on Jan. 4                                                 
                                                                              
      The governor of Pakistan*s core province of Punjab, Salman Taseer, was  
      assassinated Jan. 4 by a member of his security detail in an upscale    
      marketplace in the country*s capital of Islamabad. According to         
      officials and witnesses, Taseer was shot nine times by a bodyguard as   
      he was leaving his car to enter the Kohsar shopping center. The         
      bodyguard, Mumtaz Qadri, a member of the Elite Force who had been       
      assigned to the governor*s security detail on half a dozen previous     
      occasions, then dropped his weapon and surrendered to police, boasting  
      he had shot Taseer because the governor had voiced opposition to        
      Pakistan*s controversial blasphemy laws. Given his position, Qadri      
      easily could have acted alone, but it remains to be seen if radical     
      Islamists might have been involved in recruiting him.                   
                                                                              
      Taseer is the most senior figure in the ruling Pakistan People*s Party  
      * and the country overall * to be killed since the December 2007        
      assassination of the party*s central leader and two-term former Prime   
      Minister Benazir Bhutto. In addition to being a prominent politician,   
      Taseer was a businessman and owner of a key liberal-leaning             
      English-language daily, Daily Times. Elected on a number of occasions   
      as a member of both the provincial and national legislatures and        
      serving as a federal minister in the past, Taseer had been appointed    
      governor of Punjab in May 2008 by former President Pervez Musharraf,    
      with whom he had close relations.                                       
                                                                              
      Under the Pakistani Constitution the chief minister, as opposed to the  
      governor, wields more power in a province, therefore Taseer*s death is  
      not a major blow to the government. However, the assassination of such  
      a high-ranking state official at the hands of one of his own security   
      guards over an argument on blasphemy laws underscores the nature of     
      religious-secular conflict in the country, which has already been       
      weakened due to a raging jihadist insurgency and a weak economy         
      sustained only by International Monetary Fund loans. The assassination  
      also comes at a time when the fragile coalition government that took    
      office in elections after the fall of Musharraf*s military regime       
      nearly three years ago has had a prominent party abandon it, raising    
      questions about its ability to hold onto power while the military has   
      its hands full with a major counterinsurgency campaign against          
      jihadists.                                                              
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 4, 2011 11:05:20 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Stratfor's World Snapshot

      Stratfor logo                      January 4, 2011                      
     Stratfor's World Snapshot                                                
                                                                              
      Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 2 - China Enters the WTO                   
      STRATFOR                                                                
                                                                              
     Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 2 - China Enters the WTO                    
                                                                              
      January 4, 2011 1316 GMT                                                
      STRATFOR analysts provide an explanation of our Top Ten Most Important  
      Geopolitical Events of the decade. We've also teamed up with our        
      partner, DigitalGlobe, the world's leading commercial satellite         
      imagery company, to provide compelling images illustrating each of      
      these key events. (With STRATFOR interactive photo essay.) [more]       
      Governor of Pakistan's Main Province Assassinated                       
                                                                              
     Governor of Pakistan's Main Province Assassinated                        
                                                                              
      January 4, 2011 1421 GMT                                                
      The governor of Pakistan's most significant province was reportedly     
      assassinated by a member of his security detail. [more]                 
      Mexico Security Memo: Jan. 3, 2011                                      
                                                                              
     Mexico Security Memo: Jan. 3, 2011                                       
                                                                              
      January 3, 2011 2101 GMT                                                
      Even though La Familia is still reeling from major setbacks during      
      2010, the group is far from defanged. (With STRATFOR interactive map)   
      [more]                                                                  
      Hungary's Turn as EU President                                          
                                                                              
     Hungary's Turn as EU President                                           
                                                                              
      January 3, 2011 1301 GMT                                                
      Hungary became president of the European Union on Jan. 1. Its agenda    
      will include issues of national and regional interests, as well as the  
      EU budgetary process for 2014-2020. [more]                              
                                                                              
      More Analysis &gt;&gt;                                                        
                                                                              
     Situation Reports                                                        
                                                                              
     China: GDP Grew About 10 Percent In 2010                                 
                                                                              
      January 4, 2011 1659 GMT                                                
      China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew about 10 percent in 2010,     
      AFP reported Jan. 4, citing a statement made by People's Bank of China  
      head Zhou Xiaochauan published on the bank's website. Zhou... [more]    
                                                                              
     Iran: New Customs Office Head Appointed                                  
                                                                              
      January 4, 2011 1636 GMT                                                
                                                                              
     Cote d'Ivoire: Gbagbo Agrees To Lift Blockade, Negotiate                 
                                                                              
      January 4, 2011 1619 GMT                                                
                                                                              
     France: President To Visit U.S.                                          
                                                                              
      January 4, 2011 1615 GMT                                                
      More Situation Reports &gt;&gt;                                               
                                                                              
     Weekly Intelligence Reports                                              
                                                                              
      Egypt and the Destruction of Churches: Strategic Implications           
                                                                              
     Egypt and the Destruction of Churches: Strategic Implications            
                                                                              
      January 4, 2011 1003 GMT                                                
      The argument that the Islamist threat has been dealt with is            
      challenged by the attack, and with it the argument that the security    
      state has become archaic. [more]                                        
      Separating Terror from Terrorism                                        
                                                                              
     Separating Terror from Terrorism                                         
                                                                              
      December 30, 2010 0955 GMT                                              
      Making Sense of the START Debate                                        
                                                                              
     Making Sense of the START Debate                                         
                                                                              
      December 28, 2010 0950 GMT                                              
      Europe: The New Plan                                                    
                                                                              
     Europe: The New Plan                                                     
                                                                              
      December 21, 2010 1000 GMT                                              
      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 4, 2011 3:02:27 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Party Politics and the Isolation of a Nigerian Militant Group

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Party Politics and the Isolation of a Nigerian Militant Group            
                                                                              
      January 4, 2011 | 2002 GMT                                              
      Party Politics and the Isolation of a Nigerian Militant Group           
      PIUS UTOMI EKPEI/AFP/Getty Images                                       
      Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan at a Dec. 7, 2010 press            
      conference                                                              
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan will address a People*s            
      Democratic Party (PDP) campaign rally in Delta state on Jan. 4, where   
      he is expected to endorse incumbent Gov. Emmanuel Uduaghan for          
      re-election. The endorsement should help end PDP political infighting   
      and isolate militant activity in the oil-rich state. Jonathan has his   
      own political motivations for the move, however: The PDP candidate      
      that emerges from Nigeria*s presidential primary, scheduled for Jan.    
      13, will be a favorite to win the national election in April, and       
      stability in Delta state will certainly bolster Jonathan*s resume.      
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan will address a campaign rally for  
      the ruling People*s Democratic Party (PDP) in Delta state Jan. 4 and    
      endorse incumbent Gov. Emmanuel Uduaghan for a second term. Not only    
      will Jonathan*s endorsement of Uduaghan end political fighting within   
      the PDP branch of the oil-producing state over its nominee for state    
      elections, but the move will also lead to the isolation of start-up     
      militant group Niger Delta Liberation Front (NDLF), led by John Togo,   
      a former Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND)        
      commander. The move is not without political motivation for Jonathan,   
      however, as he gears up for the presidential election in April.         
                                                                              
      Delta state is one of the three leading oil-producing states in         
      Nigeria*s Niger Delta region (the two other leading states are Bayelsa  
      and Rivers), responsible for approximately 30 percent of the country*s  
      2 million barrel-per-day (bpd) output of crude oil. Oil production in   
      Delta state has not been without disruptions * the state has been home  
      to long-standing fractious political infighting, especially among       
      politicians representing the state*s two dominant tribes, the Ijaw and  
      the Itsekiri. The infighting has enabled the rise of militant gangs     
      operating within the state, who have attacked oil infrastructure sites  
      to demand attention and money for themselves and their patrons.         
                                                                              
      Party Politics and the Isolation of a Nigerian Militant Group           
                                                                              
      Such tensions within the state led to the creation of the Federated     
      Niger Delta Ijaw Communities (FNDIC) militant group, which was a        
      leading wing of the another militant group operating in the region,     
      the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND). However,   
      FNDIC leader Government Tompolo, formerly a top MEND commander, has     
      been cooperating with the Nigerian government since his participation   
      in Abuja*s militant amnesty program that began in late 2009, which      
      significantly curtailed his group*s attacks on the region*s oil         
      infrastructure.                                                         
                                                                              
      Despite the reduction of FNDIC operations, the amnesty program did not  
      end militant activity in Delta state. Instead, the patronage Tompolo    
      received created dissent and jealousy within the militant group. For    
      example, in March 2010 a Tompolo-controlled company named KFT Kpudoh    
      was awarded a 1.8 billion naira ($12 million) contract for shoreline    
      protection and dredging in Delta state without any real expectation     
      that it would provide such services. This favoritism and patronage to   
      Tompolo led to the emergence of the NDLF, led by Togo, who previously   
      worked under Tompolo as a deputy in the FNDIC.                          
                                                                              
      There is no evidence of Uduaghan providing patronage to the NDLF or to  
      Togo. Nevertheless, Togo has been able to operate his militant          
      start-up since the autumn of 2010, carrying out a number of pipeline    
      attacks despite Joint Task Force (JTF) military operations against his  
      camps, with the main camp located in the Ayakoromor village of the      
      Burutu local government area of Delta state.                            
                                                                              
      Jonathan*s support of Uduaghan * who, because of PDP infighting within  
      the state, has never been able to be fully secure in his position as    
      governor, and even had his 2007 election annulled by a state court in   
      November 2010 * means Uduaghan will very likely be re-elected when      
      Delta state goes to the polls on Jan. 6. The support will assert        
      political stability in the state and establish a renewed political      
      hierarchy, extending from the Jonathan-led government in Abuja to       
      Uduaghan in Asaba (the state*s formal capital, though Warri is its      
      main city and economic hub) to local PDP chieftains throughout the      
      state*s local government areas.                                         
                                                                              
      In return for Jonathan*s patronage, Uduaghan will be expected to        
      comply with Abuja*s directives. This will require Delta state to        
      assert strict control over party officials and other authorities at     
      local levels in the state, specifically to ensure that neither the      
      NDLF nor any other militant group in the state receive political        
      support that would enable them to wage attacks capable of               
      significantly disrupting oil production. Jonathan*s support will        
      enable security and intelligence cooperation, suppressing militancy     
      rather than having a scenario in which local authorities turn a blind   
      eye to the NDLF.                                                        
                                                                              
      Jonathan is not without an interest of his own in reining in Niger      
      Delta militancy. He is gearing up for the PDP presidential primary set  
      to take place Jan. 13, the winner of which is virtually certain to win  
      the country*s presidential election scheduled for April. Jonathan, who  
      is an ethnic Ijaw from Bayelsa state in the Niger Delta, has            
      campaigned on bringing peace and stability to the oil-producing         
      region. The ammunition his political enemies would use against him in   
      the event of widespread violence in his home region notwithstanding,    
      Jonathan needs the support of the country*s governors * and the         
      delegates they nominate to the PDP national convention * to secure his  
      candidacy. Supporting Uduaghan for his re-election is thus a quid pro   
      quo tactic in Nigeria*s upcoming national election.                     
                                                                              
      The Togo-led NDLF may not be able to be wiped out completely (there     
      will be lower-ranking foot soldiers wanting patronage in their turn),   
      but with new political scrutiny and surveillance in the state, their    
      ability to maneuver, arm themselves and carry out a militant campaigns  
      will be constrained to infrequent and limited operations, especially    
      during the lead-up to the national elections in April.                  
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
      Not For Publication                                                     
      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 4, 2011 3:24:27 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: A Week in the War: Afghanistan, Dec. 29, 2010-Jan. 4, 2011

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     A Week in the War: Afghanistan, Dec. 29, 2010-Jan. 4, 2011               
                                                                              
      January 4, 2011 | 2014 GMT                                              
      A Week in the War: Afghanistan, Dec. 22-28, 2010                        
      STRATFOR                                                                
      STRATFOR Book                                                           
        * Afghanistan at the Crossroads: Insights on the Conflict             
                                                                              
       A Deal in Sangin                                                       
                                                                              
      The main tribe in a part of Sangin district has reportedly reached a    
      deal with the Helmand provincial government to stop fighting Afghan     
      and coalition forces. U.S. Maj. Gen. Robert Mills, commander of         
      Regional Command Southwest and commanding general of the First Marine   
      Expeditionary Force (Forward), confirmed Jan. 3 news that the Alikozai  
      tribe in the Sarwan Qala area of the Upper Sangin Valley had agreed to  
      a cease-fire. Affecting some 30 villages, the deal encompasses only a   
      portion of the restive district, which has been the center of some of   
      the deadliest fighting in Afghanistan in recent months. The strictly    
      verbal agreement was struck on Jan. 1 after nearly a month of           
      negotiations at a Shura in the district capital.                        
                                                                              
      A Week in the War: Afghanistan, Dec. 29, 2010-Jan. 4, 2011              
      (click here to enlarge image)                                           
                                                                              
      The deal was reportedly made between Alikozai tribal elders and the     
      provincial government, though the U.S.-led International Security       
      Assistance Force (ISAF) was also involved. The agreement calls for a    
      cease-fire, for locals to prevent non-locals (Afghans not native to     
      the district as well as foreign insurgents) from entering the area and  
      for area residents to renounce the Taliban. ISAF and Afghan security    
      forces are to be called in if outsiders enter the area, though whether  
      this will result in any actionable intelligence is unclear. Tribal      
      members also will be expected to help identify and clear improvised     
      explosive devices (IEDs). This stipulation could be quite important,    
      since local support or tolerance of IED campaigns contributes           
      significantly to their effectiveness. (There are also reports of        
      weapons* being surrendered as part of the deal, but individuals are     
      allowed to own small arms in Afghanistan.)                              
                                                                              
      Taliban spokesman Qari Yousef Ahmadi has denied that any such           
      agreement has been reached or that any Taliban were represented in the  
      negotiations (he may have made the latter point to clear up inaccurate  
      reporting on the agreement, which appears to call for tribal elders to  
      renounce the Taliban). STRATFOR has noted that one of the challenges    
      for a *revolutionary* entity in a classic guerrilla scenario is         
      maintaining internal discipline when factions and localized elements    
      are targeted by the counterinsurgent force.                             
                                                                              
      There have long been reports of reprisal attacks by the Taliban         
      against those who change sides, and Mills has indicated that such       
      efforts are under way against the Alikozai leadership. But the extent   
      to which these reprisals have inhibited defection and maintained        
      internal Taliban discipline is unclear. Equally unclear is the impact   
      of an extensive campaign by U.S. special operations forces to capture   
      and kill Taliban leaders to diminish the operational effectiveness and  
      internal cohesion of an already-diffuse grassroots movement.            
                                                                              
      Indeed, the durability of this preliminary arrangement with the         
      Alikozai in Sangin remains to be seen. The broader strokes of the       
      agreement will be tested in practice as the two sides reposition and    
      interact in a cease-fire environment. No one is certain of the tribe*s  
      sincerity, its internal unity on the issue or whether it can deliver    
      on its promises in the near term or over time.                          
                                                                              
      But recent ISAF successes in Nawa and Marjah are now being              
      consolidated, and in these areas * at least temporarily * ISAF and      
      Afghan security forces have more room to maneuver militarily. And with  
      that comes more room for the ISAF and Afghan government to establish    
      new political and economic realities. Still, this is a very tentative   
      phase of the counterinsurgency-focused strategy. Continuing to hamper   
      the effort are issues of corruption, the challenges of integrating      
      local arrangements into the existing power structure emanating from     
      Kabul, and the government*s ability to deliver on promises of security  
      and development. In much of the countryside, particularly in places     
      like Sangin, the campaign is still mainly a military effort.            
                                                                              
      Related Links                                                           
        * The Afghanistan Campaign, Part 2: The Taliban Strategy              
        * Military Doctrine, Guerrilla Warfare and Counterinsurgency          
      Related Special Topic Page                                              
        * The War in Afghanistan                                              
                                                                              
      Recent development cannot be written off, however. If Sangin begins to  
      come around as other places in Helmand already have, it could begin to  
      mark a positive trend across the province. It would hardly signal the   
      defeat of the Taliban, since it is perfectly in keeping with classic    
      guerrilla strategy to fall back in the face of concentrated             
      conventional force, but it would raise a question regarding internal    
      Taliban discipline. As a grassroots movement, the Taliban would view    
      the loss of tribal and local support in key areas from Nawa and Marjah  
      to Sarwan Qala as a very real problem. At the very least, it would      
      represent a reduction in financial resources and fighters over the      
      short term. If the Taliban have to temporarily surrender ground or      
      expend a great deal more resources to remain relevant in these areas,   
      the locals and the Afghan government, with the support of the ISAF,     
      could reach more lasting agreements and make progress in development    
      efforts. Then, by the time the Taliban do return, their severe,         
      hard-line Islamism may not resonate with nearly as many locals as it    
      once did * especially if Afghan security forces are running the show    
      and the *foreign occupier* has significantly reduced its presence.      
                                                                              
      That is precisely what the U.S.-led strategy is hoping to achieve:      
      push the Taliban to outlying areas and reshape the military, political  
      and economic reality before they return. A single tribal agreement in   
      Sangin hardly validates the concept, and there are many long-term       
      questions and potential problems. Indeed, traditional concepts of       
      momentum and initiative can be problematic in assessing the efficacy    
      of a counterinsurgency campaign. But we will be watching the evolution  
      of the Alikozai deal in Sangin, and any others that follow, with great  
      interest in the new year.                                               
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
      Not For Publication                                                     
      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 4, 2011 4:28:02 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Dispatch: Economic Effects of Australian Flooding

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Dispatch: Economic Effects of Australian Flooding                        
                                                                              
      January 4, 2011 | 2214 GMT                                              
      Click on image below to watch video:                                    
      [IMG]                                                                   
                                                                              
      Analyst Matt Gertken examines how continued flooding in Australia will  
      affect coal supplies in the Asia Pacific region and globally.           
                                                                              
      Editor*s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition       
      technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete         
      accuracy.                                                               
                                                                              
      Extensive flooding in Australia over recent weeks has hit the state of  
      Queensland particularly hard. That*s the home of Australia*s coal       
      sector and therefore will have major international impacts,             
      particularly in the Asia-Pacific region.                                
                                                                              
      The flooding in Queensland has affected large swaths of Australia and   
      it*s definitely going to have an impact on domestic life and even on    
      government finance as the government attempts to reconstruct all of     
      the infrastructure that*s been damaged. If you look at Australia*s      
      coal sector you*ll see where the international impact will emanate      
      from. STRATFOR is most interested, of course, in how the flooding       
      impacts other countries. Australia provides about 54 percent of global  
      coking coal exports, but about 10 to 20 percent of its production is    
      expected to get hit from the floods. Stockpiles are already low in      
      Australia, and that*s going to get worse.                               
                                                                              
      Prices have risen by about 10 percent on spot markets, so there*s       
      going to be an impact, and if you look at the countries that are most   
      reliant on Australian coal, you see where that would take place. First  
      of all, you have Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. These are all           
      countries that import about 100 percent of their goal and get a large   
      portion of it from Australia. But also India, for instance, gets about  
      37 percent of its coal from Australia. China also is one to take a      
      look at. China isn*t as dependent on imports *China*s production at     
      home amounts to most of its consumption * but there is a little bit of  
      coal that it*s had to import in the past five years or so. China*s      
      done that basically to alleviate some of the distribution problems it   
      has at home and to meet the really booming demand to as the economy     
      grows rapidly. With the prospect of coal shortages or supply tightness  
      from Australia, there could be real problems from the Australian        
      flooding.                                                               
                                                                              
      Needless to say, to patch the gap left by Australian exports getting    
      curtailed, these states will be looking for other exporters. Some of    
      the major coal producers are Canada, United States, Russia and          
      Indonesia * these are states that can possibly provide more. In the     
      case of Russia, however, domestic consumption is close enough to its    
      production levels but there isn*t lot of leeway. So Canada and the      
      U.S. will be the best examples; Indonesia has indicated that it might   
      limit its exports this year.                                            
                                                                              
      Globally, with all the stimulus policies that have been enacted to      
      keep economies growing, there*s a lot of liquidity out there that has   
      been going into commodities on the basis that currencies like the U.S.  
      dollar weakening, and that investment is driving commodity prices up    
      aside from these supply disruptions. So if you add in a round of        
      supply disruptions, we could have some really sharp price spikes, and   
      that will indeed affect the countries that are major commodity          
      importers.                                                              
                                                                              
      Click for more videos                                                   
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 5, 2011 5:34:20 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Pakistan's Deadly Struggles With Politics and Religion

      [IMG]                                                                   
                                                                              
      Tuesday, January 4, 2011       [IMG] STRATFOR.COM [IMG] Diary Archives  
                                                                              
              Pakistan's Deadly Struggles With Politics and Religion          
                                                                              
      The governor of Pakistan*s largest province of Punjab, Salman Taseer,   
      was assassinated Tuesday by a member of his own security detail. Given  
      that the country is the world*s largest hub of disparate types of       
      Islamist militant actors * a large number of whom are waging war        
      against the Pakistani state * events like these are to be expected.     
      But this particular assassination offers key insight into the           
      deep-rooted problems plaguing Pakistan and the wider Islamic world.     
                                                                              
      The assassin, a security officer with the Elite Force (the              
      counterterrorism arm of the provincial police department also           
      responsible for VIP protection), surrendered after killing Taseer. He   
      also boasted about his deed, saying that he killed Taseer because of    
      the governor*s efforts to revamp the religious laws of the country.     
      The deceased official was known for his outspokenness against Islamist  
      extremism and terrorism and was personally involved in the efforts to   
      secure the pardoning of a Christian woman who had recently been         
      sentenced to death * in accordance with the country*s blasphemy laws *  
      after being accused of insulting the Prophet Mohammad.                  
                                                                              
      *Counterterrorism and counterinsurgency measures are perceived as a     
      Western-led war against the faithful who are resisting a campaign to    
      tamper with their religion.*                                            
                                                                              
      For a member of a security entity designed to fight terrorism and       
      protect state figures to blatantly kill the official he is supposed to  
      protect speaks volumes about how Pakistan is increasingly becoming      
      polarized over the role of religion in public affairs. The historical   
      unresolved ambiguity over the nature of the republic, the Islamization  
      agenda of the military regime of Gen. Zia-ul-Haq (1977-88) and the      
      decades-long policy of cultivating Islamist militant groups as          
      instruments of foreign policy have created a situation where the        
      secular state and mainstream society are on the defensive. Those        
      opposing ultraconservative notions of religion are not just targets of  
      Islamist militancy, they are unable to compete intellectually.          
                                                                              
      Religious discourse is the monopoly of either medievalist theologians   
      or radical Islamists. Put differently, there are very few who possess   
      the knowledge to craft an interpretation of Islam that is both in       
      keeping with the here and now and is authentic and legitimate, as       
      well. The result is an environment in which extremism and terrorism     
      can more or less flourish.                                              
                                                                              
      Furthermore, the standard approaches of the state in seeking to         
      address this problem actually work to the advantage of radical and      
      militant Islamists. Counterterrorism and counterinsurgency measures on  
      the part of the state are perceived as a Western-led war against the    
      faithful who are resisting a campaign to tamper with their religion.    
      On the ideological level, fighting radical Islamism by promoting        
      secularism only further empowers the Islamist narrative.                
                                                                              
      Despite their overwhelming electoral victories in successive            
      elections, non-Islamist political forces (both on the right and left)   
      have been unsuccessful at efforts to reform Pakistan*s legal            
      environment primarily because at the public level, such moves are       
      viewed by many Pakistanis * and Muslims worldwide * as being            
      tantamount to tinkering with sacred religious principles. The word      
      reform in the context of Islam carries a negative connotation.          
      Likewise, secularism is popularly defined as *irreligiousity* as        
      opposed to religious neutrality.                                        
                                                                              
      What this means is that the only way for Pakistanis to effectively      
      combat extremism and terrorism is for Muslim scholars to create an      
      alternative religious thought that is perceived as authentic and        
      legitimate by a critical mass of the public to be rooted in Islamic     
      religious text and the original teachings of Prophet Mohammad. At this  
      stage there is very little work being done along these lines by the     
      relevant Pakistani authorities, and even if a concerted effort was      
      initiated, this is a generational process. Such efforts are important   
      not just in Pakistan, but in most of the Muslim world, though in the    
      case of Pakistan, the situation is even dire given the extent to which  
      the state has weakened.                                                 
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 5, 2011 7:25:02 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 1 - The 9/11 Attacks

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 1 - The 9/11 Attacks                        
                                                                              
      January 5, 2011 | 1318 GMT                                              
                                                                              
      Choosing the 10 most important geopolitical events of the past decade   
      is a challenge. But STRATFOR analysts took on the task, and after a     
      robust debate, they produced our Top 10 Most Important Geopolitical     
      Events of the Decade. We have teamed up with our partner,               
      DigitalGlobe, the world*s leading commercial satellite imagery          
      company, to provide compelling images illustrating each of these key    
      events.                                                                 
                                                                              
      Join us as we count down the Top 10, unveiling an event daily starting  
      Dec. 27 and culminating Jan. 5, when we reveal our selection for the    
      single most important event of the decade.                              
                                                                              
      Click the link below to see STRATFOR*s explanation of each event along  
      with a satellite image.                                                 
                                                                              
      Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 3 - Lehman Brothers Bankrupt               
      (click here to view interactive map)                                    
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
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      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
      Not For Publication                                                     
      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 5, 2011 8:30:26 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: The International Impact of Australian Flooding

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     The International Impact of Australian Flooding                          
                                                                              
      January 5, 2011 | 1312 GMT                                              
      The International Impact of Australian Flooding                         
      TORSTEN BLACKWOOD/AFP/Getty Images                                      
      Police use a boat to patrol the streets of Rockhampton, Queensland, on  
      Jan. 4                                                                  
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      Continued flooding in the Australian state of Queensland is severely    
      affecting the country*s booming coal industry, which exports about 54   
      percent of the world*s metallurgical coal. In response, metallurgical   
      coal spot prices have already risen by around 10 percent, threatening   
      major Australian metallurgical coal importers such as Japan, Taiwan,    
      South Korea and India. The United States and Canada would be the most   
      capable of meeting international coking coal demand, but a tight        
      global supply-and-demand equation does not give a lot of flexibility    
      in the event of a prolonged Australian shortage.                        
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      Rain continued falling across eastern Australia on Jan. 5 amid          
      extensive flooding in the state of Queensland. The flooding, which has  
      affected about half of the state*s territory, has prompted emergency    
      relief efforts from Australian authorities and offers of assistance     
      from New Zealand and the United States. The Australian federal and      
      local governments have promised direct aid for families and             
      businesses, and some estimates say the total cost to the Australian     
      economy could amount to $9 billion. Roads, bridges, railroads and       
      mines have been shut down, and ports are congested.                     
                                                                              
      [IMG]                                                                   
      (click here to enlarge image)                                           
                                                                              
      Aside from the devastating domestic effects, the Queensland floods      
      will have an international impact. In particular, Queensland is a       
      major contributor to Australia*s booming coal sector, which is mostly   
      geared toward exports. In 2009, Australia produced about 28 percent of  
      the world*s total traded coal and about 54 percent of metallurgical     
      coal exports (Australian estimates say 58 percent). Of this,            
      Queensland had about 38 percent of the country*s economically           
      demonstrable coal resources and 56 percent of production and            
      Queensland produces the vast majority of Australia*s metallurgical      
      coal exports.                                                           
                                                                              
       Impact on Australian Coal Industry                                     
                                                                              
      Mines have been flooded from Emerald to Blackwater, and although some   
      coal mines have gradually resumed production in recent days, about      
      three-fourths of Queensland*s mines have been shuttered and are not     
      expected to return to normal activity for weeks or longer. Authorities  
      are predicting the loss of about 10-20 percent of coal production in    
      the affected mines, which belong to all the major Australian mining     
      companies including Rio Tinto, Xstrata and Wesfarmers, many of which    
      have declared force majeure at one or more of their mines, which means  
      they cannot fill their contracts.                                       
                                                                              
      [IMG]                                                                   
      (click here to enlarge image)                                           
                                                                              
      A number of railways are also down, preventing coal supplies from       
      moving regularly to ports. In the major coal-bearing Bowen Basin,       
      Blackwater rail is closed, and operations were expected to resume on    
      the Moura rail system on Jan. 4. Newlands rail system is                
      semi-operational. Rail movement into Gladstone port has been            
      obstructed, and rail heading south from Mackay port is also halted.     
      Goonyella claims to be operational but has seen disruptions of coal     
      supplies. STRATFOR sources expect at least two to three weeks of        
      delay, plus repairs and inspections before the lines can resume normal  
      operations.                                                             
                                                                              
      Australia*s ports remain mostly functional, as they were not hit        
      directly by a tropical storm or cyclone, though they are still          
      experiencing difficulties. At Dalrymple, operations resumed on Jan. 1,  
      and coal shipments were arriving at the port, though approximately 50   
      ships were waiting offshore on Jan. 4 due to logistical problems and    
      congestion. Hay Point also reported about 23 empty bulk coal carriers   
      waiting to load, Mackay port is receiving coal supplies but is          
      constrained to the south by rail problems, and Gladstone port is        
      operating at reduced capacity, with its coal export terminal operating  
      far below capacity because coal being shipped from inland has stopped   
      arriving. Stockpiles are running low, with Gladstone Ports Corporation  
      having only 1 million metric tons of coal stockpiled, compared to 6     
      million metric tons of capacity.                                        
                                                                              
       International Coal Prices Rise                                         
                                                                              
      Under these circumstances, it should be no surprise that exports have   
      been curtailed and spot prices for metallurgical coal have risen by     
      around 10 percent in recent weeks nearing $250 per metric ton, and      
      some fear they could eventually rise to $300 depending on the           
      intensity of flooding and duration of the cutoffs, according to The     
      Australian newspaper. At present, the contract price is set at about    
      $225 per metric ton, but these prices are negotiated quarterly, and     
      the second-quarter price could rocket upward. The Newcastle Index for   
      6,000 kilocalorie thermal coal is standing at $128 free on board in     
      Newcastle, which is based on spot prices over the previous week for     
      the standard thermal product. This is a 10 percent increase from        
      earlier in December 2010, and though prices have risen by 10 percent    
      for each the past two months, their rise is expected to accelerate      
      further.                                                                
                                                                              
      The question is how long the problems will continue. STRATFOR does not  
      predict weather patterns, but it is worth pointing out that more rain   
      is expected until late April when the wet season ends. Additional rain  
      will easily lead to more flooding with soils already saturated.         
      STRATFOR sources in Australia say the mining sector*s operations will   
      not return to normal until the second half of 2011. However, this       
      assumes that none of the mines are seriously damaged and shuttered for  
      longer * after the smaller-scale 2008 flooding in Queensland, which     
      cost mining companies around $3 billion total, one mine was not able    
      to resume full operations for 18 months. One of the biggest delays      
      will come from the short supply of the large pumps needed to de-water   
      flooded mines. In addition to de-watering the mines, coal stockpiles    
      have to be de-watered to meet industry standards; all of this will      
      take time.                                                              
                                                                              
      [IMG]                                                                   
      (click here to enlarge image)                                           
                                                                              
      Several Asian states will suffer from Australian coal export            
      reductions. Japan and Taiwan are the most exposed, with each receiving  
      about 80 percent of its metallurgical coal supply from Australia,       
      followed by South Korea (63 percent) and India (37 percent). While      
      China*s domestic production currently covers most of its consumption,   
      its demand for coal is rapidly growing (at a rate of about 13 percent   
      in the first three quarters of 2010), and various distribution choke    
      points make parts of China increasingly dependent upon Australian coal  
      shipments. Moreover, China is struggling with maintaining stability     
      amid rapid economic growth and huge risks to that growth from           
      inflation in food and energy prices and shortages in a number of        
      categories. Coal shortages were already a risk to China before the      
      Australian flooding, and the result could put more pressure on China*s  
      massive steel manufacturing sector. All of these states will have to    
      look to their stockpiles or to other coal producers to plug the gap     
      left by disruptions to Australian exports (Japan, for instance, has     
      around three weeks* worth of stockpiles.)                               
                                                                              
      Other major metallurgical coal exporters are Indonesia, Russia, the     
      United States and Canada. Among these, Russia*s domestic                
      supply-and-demand equation is much tighter, and Indonesia is expected   
      to limit its exports, so the United States and Canada are the most      
      capable of meeting global demand. Nevertheless, in 2009 global          
      production of metallurgical coal was 794 million metric tons, only      
      about 32.5 million metric tons more than global consumption, which      
      does not give a lot of flexibility in the event of large and prolonged  
      supply disruptions from Australia. Moreover, at a time when the world   
      is awash with liquidity from easy monetary policies of developed        
      economies seeking to fend off recession, commodity prices were already  
      facing the potential for sharp rises, and supply disruptions would      
      compound those upward pressures. This applies not only to Australian    
      coal but also to wheat and sugar production, which have suffered from   
      the flooding: Australia is the world*s third-largest wheat exporter,    
      and the quality of some wheat will be downgraded, affecting foreign     
      food producers that use high-quality wheat. It is too early to tell     
      the full extent of the damage or how badly exports will be affected,    
      but already it is clear the Queensland floods have created serious      
      risks for commodity importers.                                          
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 5, 2011 9:02:27 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Ukraine's Place in Russia's Evolving Foreign Policy

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Ukraine's Place in Russia's Evolving Foreign Policy                      
                                                                              
      January 5, 2011 | 1403 GMT                                              
      Ukraine's Place in Russia's Evolving Foreign Policy                     
      SERGEI CHIRIKOV/AFP/Getty Images                                        
      Russian President Dmitri Medvedev (R) and Ukrainian President Viktor    
      Yanukovich during a Nov. 26, 2010, press conference                     
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      Russia has increased its leverage in its near abroad over the past few  
      years, allowing Moscow*s foreign policy to evolve into something more   
      flexible and nuanced, particularly in how it handles countries in its   
      periphery. Its relationship with Ukraine is a case in point. With a     
      pro-Russian government in power in Kiev, Russia no longer feels the     
      need to strong-arm Ukraine into cooperation. It has secured its         
      position in the strategic country while preventing the West from        
      gaining a foothold.                                                     
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      Over the past few years, Russia has re-established its influence in     
      much of its former Soviet territory. Moscow gained strength in its      
      periphery through its military defeat of Georgia in August 2008, the    
      formation of a customs union with Belarus and Kazakhstan at the start   
      of 2010 and the April 2010 counterrevolution which brought a            
      pro-Russian government into power in Kyrgyzstan.                        
                                                                              
      As a result, Moscow*s strategy has evolved. Rather than strong-arming   
      the states in its near abroad into submission, Russia has become more   
      nuanced and flexible in interacting with its periphery as well as the   
      wider world. One country that is a key component * and target * of      
      this evolved foreign policy is Ukraine.                                 
                                                                              
       Ukraine*s Importance to Russia                                         
                                                                              
      Russia considers Ukraine the most strategic former Soviet state for     
      several reasons. Ukrainian and Russian economic and industrial          
      heartlands are virtually integrated. Roughly 80 percent of Russia*s     
      natural gas exports to Europe transit through Ukraine, and Ukraine*s    
      Crimean Peninsula provides access to Russia*s strategic warm-water      
      port of Sevastopol in the Black Sea. Perhaps most important, Ukraine*s  
      geographical position (abutting Russia*s heartland) means that a        
      Ukraine that is adversarial to Russia or allied with Moscow*s enemies   
      is an existential threat to Russian national security. When Ukraine     
      was swept into the pro-Western camp in the 2004 Orange Revolution and   
      made EU and NATO membership a national strategy, it caused concern in   
      the Kremlin as only few other events could.                             
                                                                              
      Immediately after Ukraine*s swing toward the West, Russia truly began   
      its geopolitical resurgence. In the 2010 presidential elections,        
      Russia managed to reverse the Orange Revolution when pro-Russian        
      candidate Viktor Yanukovich defeated the original Orangists, incumbent  
      President Viktor Yushchenko and then-Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko,   
                                                                              
      In the year since Yanukovich took office as president, Moscow has made  
      considerable gains in all matters most relevant to Russia*s strategic   
      interest. One of Yanukovich*s first acts as president was to outlaw     
      Ukraine*s entrance into any military alliance, including NATO. In       
      April 2010, Ukraine and Russia signed a landmark deal that extended     
      the latter*s lease of its Black Sea naval base by 25 years, in          
      exchange for a lower price for Russia*s natural gas exports to          
      Ukraine. There has been a reconciliation of Russia*s Federal Security   
      Services with the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), and the United     
      States has replaced Russia as the SBU*s primary target for              
      intelligence-gathering. The natural gas cutoffs which were a mainstay   
      of Russia*s policy toward Ukraine under Yushchenko have abated; in      
      fact, Ukraine was used as an alternative route to Europe when Russia    
      cut off natural gas to neighboring Belarus.                             
                                                                              
       Russia*s Comfort Level and Ukrainian Policy                            
                                                                              
      These gains have left Russia more comfortable with its position in      
      both Ukraine and the wider region. Russia no longer feels the need to   
      pressure Ukraine unilaterally and aggressively. The years of pressure   
      tactics and manipulation leading up to Yanukovich*s presidency have     
      allowed Russia to be more flexible toward Ukraine*s foreign and         
      domestic policies.                                                      
                                                                              
      In foreign policy, Ukraine has continued its economic and political     
      cooperation with the European Union. Yanukovich has even said that      
      obtaining EU membership remains one of Ukraine*s leading priorities,    
      exemplified by Yanukovich making his first presidential visit to        
      Brussels rather than Moscow and Ukraine*s accession to the European     
      Energy Community in September 2010. Russian leadership has not spoken   
      nor acted against any of these moves. This is partly because Moscow     
      knows Kiev is not getting into the European Union anytime soon (if      
      ever), but also because a more relaxed role has many advantages for     
      Russia including economic benefits and improved relations with          
      important EU countries like Germany or Poland.                          
                                                                              
      Russia has also been more pragmatic and cooperative with Ukraine in     
      terms of energy. In addition to Russia lowering the price it charged    
      Ukraine for natural gas from $350 per thousand cubic meters (tcm) to    
      $250 per tcm (saving Ukraine an estimated $4 billion per year), Moscow  
      and Kiev have agreed to several joint energy projects ranging from      
      nuclear production to electricity. However, Russia has also called for  
      a merger of Russian state energy behemoth Gazprom with Ukraine*s state  
      energy firm, Naftogaz. Ukraine has rejected such a deal up to this      
      point (knowing full well that it would essentially be Gazprom           
      swallowing up control and ownership of Naftogaz). While Russian Prime   
      Minister Vladimir Putin continues to publicly speak in favor of the     
      merger, many in Russia actually do not want to obtain direct ownership  
      of a company that is as financially and organizationally dysfunctional  
      as Naftogaz. It may actually be more beneficial for Russia to have      
      indirect control over the company.                                      
                                                                              
      Russia*s flexibility has also applied to Ukraine*s domestic politics.   
      Many Western-leaning former political leaders, energy officials and     
      oligarchs have been replaced with officials more loyal to Yanukovich.   
      More recently, high-profile figures have been either put on trial       
      (like Timoshenko and former Interior Minister Yuri Lutsenko) or         
      exposed for questionable activities (like one of Ukraine*s richest      
      oligarchs, Dmitri Firtash). From the West*s perspective, this has       
      moved Ukraine a step back from democratic reforms; indeed, the U.S.     
      government issued a rare direct statement on the *politically           
      motivated* prosecution of Yanukovich*s opponents. But these actions     
      have played into Moscow*s hands. Under Yushchenko*s administration,     
      Ukraine was constantly at odds with itself and difficult for Russia to  
      navigate as the Kremlin tried to exploit the political rivalries to     
      its own benefit. Now, Yanukovich has strengthened his control over the  
      country, which has created a more coherent and consolidated             
      leadership. Democratic questions aside, this unified authority makes    
      it easier for Ukraine to organize and proceed with reforms at home,     
      and makes it easier for Moscow to negotiate with Kiev.                  
                                                                              
      Russia*s new, nuanced approach has also extended to Ukraine*s domestic  
      energy policy * traditionally the most important but most dangerous     
      policy area to navigate. Ukraine*s energy policy is treacherous         
      because the people in charge of Ukraine*s energy sector have made       
      moves for personal and financial gain rather than out of a sense of     
      state interest or strategic security. But beginning Jan. 1, Ukraine     
      cut off a small volume of energy supplies to Poland, following          
      legislation requiring the natural gas produced in Ukraine to only be    
      used for domestic needs. This is a logical business decision. It        
      accounts for domestic consumption before exports and increases the      
      cash flow for Russia (which will supply Poland with more natural gas)   
      and Ukraine (which will transit more supplies while consuming cheaper   
      domestic natural gas). For Ukraine to make this move, regardless of     
      its relatively small impact, is telling and could lead to more energy   
      stability between Russia and Europe.                                    
                                                                              
      Despite all of Russia*s successes, Yanukovich and the Ukrainian         
      government still do not see eye-to-eye with Moscow on all matters, and  
      Kiev has not handed over its sovereignty to the Kremlin. But complete   
      control of Ukraine is not Moscow*s goal; Russia has made all the        
      strategic gains it has needed to and has blocked the West from holding  
      a solid position in Ukraine. Moscow has become more nuanced and         
      multidimensional in how it handles its relationship with Kiev, just as  
      its approach to other countries in its periphery and around the world   
      has become more complex.                                                
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
      Not For Publication                                                     
      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 5, 2011 10:22:03 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Above the Tearline: The Assassination of a Pakistani Governor

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Above the Tearline: The Assassination of a Pakistani Governor            
                                                                              
      January 5, 2011 | 1512 GMT                                              
      Click on image below to watch video:                                    
      [IMG]                                                                   
                                                                              
      Vice President of Intelligence Fred Burton discusses the politics and   
      security failures leading up to the assassination of the governor of    
      Punjab province by a member of his security detail.                     
                                                                              
      Editor*s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition       
      technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete         
      accuracy.                                                               
                                                                              
      Hi, I*m Fred Burton with STRATFOR. In this week*s Above the Tearline,   
      we*re going to look at the January 4 assassination of the governor of   
      the Punjab province of Pakistan with an eye toward how the political    
      climate set the stage for a catastrophic protective security failure.   
                                                                              
      Salman Taseer was gunned down by a bodyguard that was assigned to       
      protect him as he arrived for a lunch meeting at a very upscale area    
      of Islamabad today. The assassination takes place on the heels of very  
      large-scale protests last week in Pakistan concerning the blasphemy     
      laws. The blasphemy laws were implemented by President Zia of Pakistan  
      in an effort to support Islam. The laws persecute Christians, and in    
      essence there is a movement inside of Pakistan to overturn those laws,  
      which has created a high degree of controversy inside the country. The  
      bodyguard claimed that his motivation for killing the governor was the  
      governor*s support of the overturn of the blasphemy laws.               
                                                                              
      Now that we*ve looked at the political climate of what has taken place  
      inside of Pakistan, I*d like to turn our attention to the catastrophic  
      protective security failure. When you*re looking to hire protective     
      security agents, typically there is a comprehensive background          
      investigation process that takes place and that includes many, many     
      steps. For example, you conduct a pre-employment screening, a           
      neighborhood canvass, you interview previous employers, you check       
      education records; in essence, you put that on top of a comprehensive   
      physical examination as well as a psychological profile of that person  
      in order to select the best candidate. Individuals that are hired for   
      protective security jobs typically come out of a career track where     
      they*ve spent time on the streets and they*ve been in a position that   
      could be thoroughly evaluated by coworkers as well as supervisors       
      before they*re selected for these elite positions. Clearly in this      
      case there was a failure of an update process to evaluate the           
      individual that was involved in the shooting.                           
                                                                              
      One of the more interesting aspects as you examine this assassination   
      will be whether or not the individual acted alone, or was he part of a  
      larger group? The fact that the assassin was ideologically motivated    
      by his own admissions will lead the investigators down a path looking   
      toward evidence of a larger conspiracy at play to see who else could    
      be of a similar mindset that pose protective security risks as well.    
                                                                              
      Click for more videos                                                   
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 5, 2011 11:09:48 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Stratfor's World Snapshot

      Stratfor logo                      January 5, 2011                      
     Stratfor's World Snapshot                                                
                                                                              
      Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 1 - The 9/11 Attacks                       
      STRATFOR                                                                
                                                                              
     Top 10 Decade Countdown: No. 1 - The 9/11 Attacks                        
                                                                              
      January 5, 2011 1318 GMT                                                
      STRATFOR analysts provide an explanation of our Top Ten Most Important  
      Geopolitical Events of the decade. We've also teamed up with our        
      partner, DigitalGlobe, the world's leading commercial satellite         
      imagery company, to provide compelling images illustrating each of      
      these key events. (With STRATFOR interactive photo essay.) [more]       
      Ukraine's Place in Russia's Evolving Foreign Policy                     
                                                                              
     Ukraine's Place in Russia's Evolving Foreign Policy                      
                                                                              
      January 5, 2011 1403 GMT                                                
      Having increased its influence in its near abroad, Russia is taking a   
      more nuanced approach to its foreign policy, particularly in Ukraine.   
      [more]                                                                  
      The International Impact of Australian Flooding                         
                                                                              
     The International Impact of Australian Flooding                          
                                                                              
      January 5, 2011 1312 GMT                                                
      The world's biggest metallurgical coal exporter is facing a severe hit  
      to its supply chain. (With STRATFOR graphics) [more]                    
      A Week in the War: Afghanistan, Dec. 29, 2010-Jan. 4, 2011              
                                                                              
     A Week in the War: Afghanistan, Dec. 29, 2010-Jan. 4, 2011               
                                                                              
      January 4, 2011 2014 GMT                                                
      A single tribal agreement in Sangin hardly validates the U.S.-led       
      counterinsurgency strategy, but it shouldn't be written off. (With      
      STRATFOR map) [more]                                                    
                                                                              
      More Analysis &gt;&gt;                                                        
                                                                              
     Situation Reports                                                        
                                                                              
     Greece: Rebel Group Claims Courthouse Attack                             
                                                                              
      January 5, 2011 1649 GMT                                                
      A Greek rebel group, known as The Conspiracy of Fire Cells, has         
      claimed responsibility for the December attack on an Athens             
      courthouse, Reuters reported Jan. 5. The group, which also claimed      
      the... [more]                                                           
                                                                              
     Sudan: Referendum Precursor To Good Relations - U.S. Senate Chairman     
                                                                              
      January 5, 2011 1649 GMT                                                
                                                                              
     Iraq: Allawi Asked For Iranian Support For PM Bid - Source               
                                                                              
      January 5, 2011 1644 GMT                                                
                                                                              
     India: Trade Deals With Japan, Malaysia Expected In February             
                                                                              
      January 5, 2011 1640 GMT                                                
      More Situation Reports &gt;&gt;                                               
                                                                              
     Weekly Intelligence Reports                                              
                                                                              
      Egypt and the Destruction of Churches: Strategic Implications           
                                                                              
     Egypt and the Destruction of Churches: Strategic Implications            
                                                                              
      January 4, 2011 1003 GMT                                                
      The argument that the Islamist threat has been dealt with is            
      challenged by the attack, and with it the argument that the security    
      state has become archaic. [more]                                        
      Separating Terror from Terrorism                                        
                                                                              
     Separating Terror from Terrorism                                         
                                                                              
      December 30, 2010 0955 GMT                                              
      Making Sense of the START Debate                                        
                                                                              
     Making Sense of the START Debate                                         
                                                                              
      December 28, 2010 0950 GMT                                              
      Europe: The New Plan                                                    
                                                                              
     Europe: The New Plan                                                     
                                                                              
      December 21, 2010 1000 GMT                                              
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      (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 5, 2011 1:02:36 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: U.S. Naval Update Map: Jan. 5, 2011

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     U.S. Naval Update Map: Jan. 5, 2011                                      
                                                                              
      January 5, 2011 | 1839 GMT                                              
                                                                              
      The Naval Update Map shows an approximation of the current locations    
      of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups        
      (ARGs), the keys to U.S. dominance of the world*s oceans. A CSG is      
      centered on an aircraft carrier, which projects U.S. naval and air      
      power and supports a carrier air wing (CVW). The CSG includes           
      significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered on three    
      amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU)        
      embarked. An MEU is built around a heavily reinforced and mobile        
      battalion of Marines.                                                   
                                                                              
      U.S. Naval Update Map: Jan. 5, 2011                                     
      (click here to enlarge image)                                           
                                                                              
       Carrier Strike Groups                                                  
                                                                              
        * The USS Carl Vinson with CVW 17 embarked is under way on a          
          deployment to the U.S. 7th and 5th fleet areas of responsibility    
          (AORs).                                                             
        * The USS Abraham Lincoln CSG with CVW 2 embarked is on a scheduled   
          deployment in the 5th Fleet AOR conducting maritime security        
          operations and theater security cooperation efforts.                
        * The USS Ronald Reagan is off the coast of southern California for   
          training and certification ahead of a scheduled deployment in       
          early 2011.                                                         
                                                                              
       Amphibious Ready Groups/Marine Expeditionary Units                     
                                                                              
        * The USS Kearsarge ARG with the 26th MEU embarked is under way       
          supporting maritime security operations and theater security        
          cooperation efforts in the U.S. 5th Fleet AOR.                      
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
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      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
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      (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 5, 2011 3:22:29 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: China Security Memo: Jan. 5, 2011

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     China Security Memo: Jan. 5, 2011                                        
                                                                              
      January 5, 2011 | 2012 GMT                                              
      China Security Memo: April 1, 2010                                      
                                                                              
       Zhaiqiao and Official Distrust                                         
                                                                              
      Authorities in Yueqing, Zhejiang province, issued a notice Jan. 3       
      demanding that residents of the nearby village of Zhaiqiao stop         
      spreading rumors about the recent death of former village head Qian     
      Yunhui. According to authorities, Qian was killed Dec. 25 when he was   
      accidentally run over by a large *construction truck.* Soon after his   
      death, a rumor began spreading online and within the village that he    
      was intentionally killed and the accident was staged as a cover-up.     
      Officials in Yueqing, the city that administratively oversees           
      Zhaiqiao, are threatening to punish anyone who fails to preserve order  
      in the village.                                                         
                                                                              
      It is difficult to ascertain the accuracy of either story, but the      
      questioning of local authority, the growing public outcry and           
      widespread media coverage suggest a widening gap in trust between       
      Chinese citizens and their local officials.                             
                                                                              
      Qian*s story goes back to 2004, when a power company expropriated 150   
      hectares of agricultural land owned communally by the village of        
      Zhaiqiao. In 2005, Qian became village director of Zhaiqiao and raised  
      his profile by challenging the land seizure and petitioning higher      
      authorities. He was jailed three times and spent three and a half of    
      the last five years behind bars for helping villagers petition the      
      government.                                                             
                                                                              
      Land disputes are a hot topic in China, with local protests occurring   
      weekly and often leading to violence. But they usually remain local     
      issues, and rarely does an incident like Qian*s death generate          
      national interest. Media coverage has not been censored over the        
      incident, likely because most of the public anger is being directed at  
      local officials. It is difficult to judge the various claims            
      surrounding Qian*s death without an unencumbered investigation at the   
      scene, and so far all we have are media reports and Internet postings.  
                                                                              
      What we know now is that the truck allegedly hit Qian while he was      
      crossing a street holding an umbrella near his home in Zhaiqiao on the  
      morning of Dec. 25. The umbrella may have blocked his view of the       
      oncoming truck. Pictures from the scene show his body smashed under     
      the driver*s side front wheel of a large truck. It is not clear how     
      soon after the incident the photos were taken, though some were first   
      posted online within 20 minutes of the incident. The most suspicious    
      aspect of the scene as photographed is that the driver apparently left  
      the truck parked on top of his victim.                                  
                                                                              
      Yueqing police held a press conference Dec. 26 and announced that       
      Qian*s death was an accident. On Dec. 29, police from Wenzhou, a        
      larger city that has authority over both Yueqing and Zhaiqiao,          
      announced that further investigation revealed no evidence of murder.    
                                                                              
      There are a number of curious circumstances in the case. The truck hit  
      Qian on the left side of the road while it should have been traveling   
      on the right. Local police said the truck was going around cables left  
      on the right side of the road, but they failed to explain how the       
      driver was able to see the cables but not a pedestrian. The area was    
      also under surveillance by at least one closed-circuit television       
      (CCTV) camera, which are common at intersections in China, especially   
      in the southeast. But police say the camera had no record function and  
      thus they have no footage of the incident. Other reports claim that     
      CCTV cameras in the area were taken away the day before the incident.   
                                                                              
      Internet reports also claim that two witnesses saw three masked men     
      with white gloves force Qian*s head under the wheels of the truck that  
      morning, but these reports have not been verified. One of the           
      witnesses, Qian Chengyu, was arrested Jan. 2 for possessing drugs and   
      attacking police officers (it is unknown if he is related to the        
      victim). Qian Chengyu is reportedly being polygraphed regarding the     
      incident. The truck driver, Fei Liangyu, was arrested by Yueqing        
      police and is currently in custody. Authorities say he was unlicensed   
      and is mentally ill. Other supposed witnesses, protesters and           
      villagers were detained for questioning and many have been released.    
                                                                              
      The profile of the case has been growing each day since the incident    
      occurred, much of it fueled by online posts quick to dismiss the        
      authorities* version of events. Various online articles on major        
      Chinese news sites are getting as many as 100 million hits a day.       
      Prominent academics and activists have announced they will travel to    
      Zhaiqiao to conduct an independent investigation, including Yu          
      Jianrong from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China*s major     
      state-run think tank, and Xu Zhiyong, a legal scholar, activist and     
      the first independent politician (unaffiliated with the Communist       
      Party of China) elected to a local office. A spokesman for the Wenzhou  
      police said all were welcome to investigate the case. Xu*s report on    
      Dec. 31 said there was no evidence of murder, but he evidently has not  
      been able to meet with local authorities.                               
                                                                              
      On Jan. 1, hundreds of local citizens gathered in Zhaiqiao to protest   
      the official response to Qian*s death. Some threw stones at police and  
      were arrested and all were clearly angry about the incident. Some       
      local residents have said he would have won the next village election.  
      But it is not just the locals who are unwilling to accept the official  
      story. Even more interesting is the automatic rejection by Chinese      
      *netizens* throughout China of the authorities* version of events.      
      Similar incidents have occurred in China in which individuals have      
      died suspiciously in police custody, but the assassination of a         
      re-emerging local leader would be a new development. This issue is not  
      going to die quickly, and STRATFOR will continue to monitor the media   
      and the actions of local officials to determine if the case could be a  
      cover-up.                                                               
                                                                              
      China Security Memo: Jan. 5, 2011                                       
      (click here to view interactive map)                                    
                                                                              
         Dec. 29                                                              
                                                                              
        * The State Administration for Industry and Commerce announced it     
          investigated 6,000 trademark-violation and counterfeit cases in     
          2010, worth 798 million yuan (about $121 million). It said 360,000  
          law enforcement officers had been involved in the investigations.   
        * Around 200 migrant workers attacked residents of a building in the  
          Yangpu district of Shanghai in order to force their removal. The    
          building is scheduled to be demolished, but some of the residents   
          have refused to move. The residents eventually repelled the         
          attackers.                                                          
                                                                              
         Dec. 30                                                              
                                                                              
        * A chemical explosion at a Quanxin Pharmaceutical Co. workshop in    
          Kunming, Yunnan province, killed five people and injured eight      
          others. The cause of the blast is unknown.                          
        * Guangdong authorities announced that police in the province solved  
          717 bribery cases in the first 10 months of 2010, involving a       
          total of 300 million yuan.                                          
        * The Fujian Public Security Bureau announced it would begin          
          offering rewards up to 250,000 yuan for tips on drug-trafficking    
          cases, depending on the amount of drugs seized as a result of the   
          tip. The bureau also announced they solved 3,059 drug-related       
          cases in 2010.                                                      
        * A man was arrested in Weihai, Shandong province, for selling trade  
          secrets. The man was an equipment supplier to Blue Star Glass Co.   
          and managed to acquire information on a new energy-saving method    
          for glass production. Blue Star discovered he had been selling the  
          patent on the Internet and profited 26 million yuan.                
        * Three people were sentenced to life in prison for producing fake    
          invoices in Tieling, Liaoning province. They established four       
          companies that produced a total of 7.5 million yuan in fake         
          invoices sold throughout China. Five others involved in their       
          scheme were sentenced to between two and 11 years in prison.        
        * Chinese authorities ordered criminals involved in human             
          trafficking to turn themselves in by March 31 in exchange for a     
          lighter sentence. The announcement threatened to severely punish    
          those who did not turn themselves in.                               
        * A man was executed in Changsha, Hunan province, for setting fire    
          to a shuttle bus servicing Huanghua International Airport on July   
          21. The fire killed two people and injured 14 others.               
        * A former deputy party secretary of Chenzhou, Hunan province, was    
          executed for accepting bribes. Between 1997 and 2006, he accepted   
          31.5 million yuan in bribes and acquired property from an unknown   
          origin worth 9.5 million yuan. The official had been in charge of   
          approving license for coal mines, the owners of which likely        
          provided the bribes.                                                
                                                                              
         Dec. 31                                                              
                                                                              
        * Chinese authorities announced they confiscated more than 44         
          million illegal publications in 2010. These included pornography,   
          pirated publications, and other illegal newspapers and magazines.   
          They also announced they shut down 60,000 pornographic websites in  
          2010.                                                               
        * Liu Zhuiheng was sentenced to death for detonating an explosive     
          device at a tax office in Changsha, Hunan province, on July 30,     
          2010. He confessed to the crime and said he did it because he was   
          angry over his business losses. Two other men who helped him        
          purchase explosives and detonators were sentenced to seven years    
          in prison.                                                          
                                                                              
         Jan. 1                                                               
                                                                              
        * Three truck drivers were sentenced to up to two years in prison     
          for embezzling diesel fuel in Shanghai. They are the first of more  
          than 20 drivers from Yongxin Concrete Co. suspected of embezzling   
          diesel fuel. The drivers tampered with their truck*s odometers to   
          match the amount of fuel they claimed to put in their tanks and     
          sold the surplus. The company lost 500,000 yuan due to the fraud    
          in the first six months of 2010 and has not calculated the rest of  
          their losses.                                                       
        * Police discovered fake receipts sold in an online auction for       
          6,500 Shanghai Metro tickets that had never been issued. It is      
          believed that someone produced the receipts so they could be used   
          to pad expense reports, though investigators have not found those   
          responsible for producing the fake receipts. Some Shanghai          
          residents claim it was a source working for Shanghai Shentong       
          Metro Group, the subway*s operator, but the group has denied the    
          allegations.                                                        
        * Sixty gang members were sentenced to up to life in prison in        
          Tangshan, Hebei province, for crimes including murder, assault and  
          illegal gambling.                                                   
                                                                              
         Jan. 4                                                               
                                                                              
        * Four men who ran a business sending text message advertisements to  
          mobile phones were on trial in Beijing charged with *illegal        
          operation* for failing to acquire the correct license for their     
          company. Large-scale text messaging is very common in China, and    
          these four are the first to be prosecuted for it.                   
        * Eight migrant laborers were arrested in Wuhan, Hubei province, for  
          robbery. They were caught after robbing a recycling center,         
          stealing 20,000 yuan and injuring two people at knifepoint.         
        * A former director of the Economic Commission in Nanjing, Jiangsu    
          province, was sentenced to five years in prison for involvement in  
          insider trading. He made 7 million yuan from buying and selling     
          stocks with insider information. He is the first government         
          official to be convicted of insider trading.                        
        * The executive director and executive president of China Gas         
          Holdings have been detained since Dec. 18 in Shenzhen, Guangdong    
          province, on suspicion of embezzlement, the company announced.      
          Trading in the natural gas distributor*s stock on the Hong Kong     
          Stock Exchange has been suspended since Dec. 20.                    
        * Four policemen and one auxiliary police officer were killed and     
          six others were wounded in a gunfight in Tai*an, Shandong           
          province. The police arrived at the home of a murder suspect*s      
          brother and were fired on by two gunmen who fled the scene. In the  
          ensuing chase and standoff, one of the gunmen shot himself and the  
          other was arrested.                                                 
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 5, 2011 3:57:03 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Dispatch: Polish-Russian Relations and Implications for the
     Baltic Region

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Dispatch: Polish-Russian Relations and Implications for the Baltic       
     Region                                                                   
                                                                              
      January 5, 2011 | 2036 GMT                                              
      Click on image below to watch video:                                    
      [IMG]                                                                   
                                                                              
      Analyst Marko Papic uses recent developments in Poland, Sweden and      
      Russia to examine the evolving geopolitics of the Baltic region in      
      2011.                                                                   
                                                                              
      Editor*s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition       
      technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete         
      accuracy.                                                               
                                                                              
      Only five days into 2011, events in Sweden, Poland and Russia indicate  
      that the geopolitics of the region are evolving. The area will be       
      critical for European security and political issues in 2011.            
                                                                              
      Polish ambassador to Russia Wojciech Zajaczkowski has called out the    
      Nordstream underwater pipeline between Russia and Germany as well as    
      the possibility of Russian tactical nukes being based in Kaliningrad    
      as being serious issues that Poland has problems with. Zajaczkowski     
      specifically said that Poland would look to diversify its energy        
      supplies away from Russian natural gas despite recently having signed   
      a new expansive deal with Russian Gazprom supplies of natural gas.      
      Zajaczkowski also took issue with Nordstream, which should come online  
      sometime this year, stating that it was unnecessary and a potential     
      environmental catastrophe waiting to happen                             
                                                                              
      The statements from the Polish ambassador to Moscow come as news hits   
      the wires that a senior Polish diplomat who was in charge of the        
      Polish Embassy*s political section in Moscow has resigned from the      
      foreign ministry. Tomasz Turowski apparently lied at his lustracja      
      hearing about his role as a spy for the Soviet Union during the Cold    
      War.                                                                    
                                                                              
      The activities surrounding the Polish Embassy in Moscow come a time     
      when the Polish-Russian relationship has essentially seen one of its    
      apexes. Since the death of former Polish President Lech Kaczynski in    
      the Smolensk air disaster in April 2010, the Russian-Polish             
      relationship has improved. Kaczynski was essentially the last vestige   
      of an anti-Russian foreign policy within the Polish government. He was  
      replaced by Bronis?aw Komorowski, and Komorowski launched a new         
      relationship with Russia, calling Russia a potential strategic          
      partner.                                                                
                                                                              
      However, the basis for the Warsaw-Moscow rapprochement is essentially   
      a set of constraints in Poland in terms of security. Poland, at this    
      point, feels relatively isolated on the northern European plain. The    
      U.S. is involved in the Middle East and is not refocusing on the        
      European continent. As such, Poland feels that it is essentially        
      without any concrete security alliances that would allow it to be far   
      more aggressive towards Russia. The statements from the Polish          
      ambassador to Moscow are therefore very telling because they            
      illustrate that the rapprochement could be a very temporary affair and  
      that underneath the good relations between Warsaw and Moscow Poland is  
      looking for alternatives and is not simply rolling over to Russia.      
                                                                              
      This is why news from Stockholm that the Swedish parliamentary defense  
      committee is reviewing the decision by France to sell Russia a          
      Mistral-class warship is also very interesting in the context of the    
      Baltic geopolitical field. The Swedish committee has forwarded Swedish  
      Foreign Minister Carl Bildt a written question as to whether the        
      Swedish government intends to respond to the sale of the Mistral ship   
      and also has suggested that a closer military alliance with Poland      
      maybe a way to go. Thus far, Sweden and Poland have had a close         
      diplomatic relationship in pushing on the Russian periphery but he has  
      never moved past diplomacy. A concrete military or security             
      arrangement between Poland and the most militarized non-NATO European   
      state would be a significant move in the Baltics.                       
                                                                              
      Click for more videos                                                   
                                                                              
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      This report may be forwarded or republished on your website with        
      attribution to www.stratfor.com                                         
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 6, 2011 4:03:44 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Security Weekly : The Mohammed Cartoon Dust Has Not Settled

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     The Mohammed Cartoon Dust Has Not Settled                                
                                                                              
      January 6, 2011                                                         
                                                                              
      Separating Terror from Terrorism                                        
                                                                              
      By Scott Stewart                                                        
                                                                              
      When one considers all of the people and places in the West targeted    
      by transnational jihadists over the past few years, iconic targets      
      such as New York*s Times Square, the London Metro and the Eiffel Tower  
      come to mind. There are also certain target sets such as airlines and   
      subways that jihadists focus on more than others. Upon careful          
      reflection, however, it is hard to find any target set that has been    
      more of a magnet for transnational jihadist ire over the past year      
      than the small group of cartoonists and newspapers involved in the      
      Mohammed cartoon controversy.                                           
                                                                              
      Every year STRATFOR publishes a forecast of the jihadist movement for   
      the coming year. As we were working on that project for this year, we   
      were struck by the number of plots in 2010 that involved the cartoon    
      controversy * and by the number of those plots that had transnational   
      dimensions, rather than plots that involved only local grassroots       
      operatives. (The 2011 jihadist forecast will be available to STRATFOR   
      members in the coming weeks.)                                           
                                                                              
      Groups such as al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) have gone to    
      great lengths to keep the topic of the Mohammed cartoons burning in     
      the consciousness of radical Islamists, whether they are lone wolves    
      or part of an organized jihadist group, and those efforts are           
      obviously bearing fruit. Because of this, we anticipate that plots      
      against cartoon-related targets will continue into the foreseeable      
      future.                                                                 
                                                                              
       A Recent Plot                                                          
                                                                              
      On Dec. 29, 2010, authorities in Denmark and Sweden arrested five men   
      they say were involved in planning an armed assault on the offices of   
      Jyllands-Posten in Copenhagen. Jyllands-Posten is the newspaper that    
      first published the cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed in September       
      2005. According to the Danish Security and Intelligence Service (known  
      by its Danish acronym PET), three of the arrested men, a 29-year-old    
      Swedish citizen born in Lebanon, a 44-year-old Tunisian and a           
      30-year-old Swedish citizen, lived in Sweden and had traveled to        
      Denmark to participate in the plot. The other two individuals arrested  
      were a 37-year-old Swedish citizen born in Tunisia who was detained in  
      a Stockholm suburb and a 26-year-old Iraqi asylum seeker who was        
      arrested in a Copenhagen suburb. The Iraqi has been released from       
      Danish custody.                                                         
                                                                              
      According to the PET, one of the three men who had traveled to          
      Copenhagen, 29-year-old Swedish citizen Munir Awad, had been arrested   
      in Somalia in 2007 and in Pakistan in 2009 on suspicion of              
      participating in terrorist activity. When arrested in Pakistan, Awad    
      was allegedly traveling in the company of Mehdi Ghezali, a Swedish      
      citizen who had been released in 2004 after being held in U.S. custody  
      at Guantanamo Bay since 2002. Given Awad*s background, it is almost     
      certain that he had been placed under intensive surveillance by         
      Swedish authorities and it is likely this surveillance resulted in the  
      unraveling of the plot.                                                 
                                                                              
      In addition to Awad*s background, there are several other indicators    
      that this latest plot against Jyllands-Posten was serious. First, the   
      attack plan was reasonable, practical and achievable. The plotters      
      sought to attack a specific target, the Jyllands-Posten offices, with   
      an armed assault. They were not seeking to execute some sort of         
      grandiose, fanciful attack using skills and weapons they did not        
      possess, or to conduct attacks against targets that were too difficult  
      to strike using their chosen method of attack. They appear to have      
      been aware of their own capabilities and limitations and planned their  
      attack accordingly.                                                     
                                                                              
      This stands in stark contrast to plots like the one also thwarted in    
      December in the Netherlands, where a group of Somalis allegedly         
      plotted to shoot down a Dutch military helicopter but lacked even a     
      rudimentary weapon with which to mount such an attack, much less a      
      surface-to-air missile, the weapon of choice for anyone really wanting  
      to bring down a helicopter. In another recently thwarted plot in the    
      United Kingdom, the planners considered hitting pretty much every       
      conceivable target in London, including the U.S. Embassy, Parliament,   
      the London Stock Exchange and a host of religious and political         
      leaders. The Copenhagen plotters were far more focused.                 
                                                                              
      The PET said the group arrested in Denmark had obtained a pistol and a  
      submachine gun equipped with a sound suppressor for use in its assault  
      on the newspaper offices. Reportedly, the plotters were also found to   
      possess flexible handcuffs, an indication that they may have been       
      seeking to take hostages and create a theatrical terrorist operation    
      to play to the world media.                                             
                                                                              
      In addition to conducting their preoperational surveillance, planning   
      their operation and obtaining weapons, the plotters had also brought    
      in a team of operatives from Sweden to assist them in implementing      
      their plan. This indicates that the operation was likely in the later   
      stages of the terrorist attack cycle and was close to being executed.   
      Even though it appears that Swedish and Danish authorities had the      
      plotters under close scrutiny, had the attack been launched against     
      unsuspecting security at the Jyllands-Posten offices, it would have     
      had a fairly good chance of creating considerable carnage and terror.   
                                                                              
       History of Plots                                                       
                                                                              
      The cartoons received very little notice after their initial release    
      by Jyllands-Posten in September 2005. It was not until early 2006 that  
      a group of Muslim clerics traveling through the Middle East brought     
      attention to the issue in a deliberate effort to stir up emotions.      
      Those efforts were successful in fomenting a violent, if somewhat       
      belated, reaction. In early February 2006, Danish and Norwegian         
      embassies and consulates were attacked in Syria, Lebanon, Afghanistan,  
      Iran, Pakistan, Nigeria and Indonesia. In Damascus, rioters set fire    
      to the Danish and Norwegian missions, and in Beirut the Danish Embassy  
      was burned. At least nine people died when protesters tried to storm    
      an Italian Consulate in Libya while protesting the cartoons.            
                                                                              
      The furor diminished to a low boil but did not go away. In addition to  
      calls by Muslims to boycott Danish goods, a Swedish newspaper           
      published yet another cartoon of Mohammed, once again stoking the       
      fires. In September 2007, Omar al-Baghdadi, then leader of the Islamic  
      State of Iraq, offered a $100,000 reward for killing Lars Vilks, a      
      Swedish artist who drew the August 2007 cartoon in which the Prophet    
      Mohammed was portrayed as a dog. In a March 2008 audiotape, a speaker   
      purporting to be al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden threatened to conduct  
      attacks in Europe because of the drawings. According to bin Laden,      
      drawing cartoons of the Prophet was even more provocative than killing  
      Muslim civilians.                                                       
                                                                              
      On June 2, 2008, the Danish Embassy in Islamabad was attacked in a      
      suicide vehicle bombing. Before the attack, the Danes had drawn down    
      their embassy staff in Islamabad and, recognizing that their embassy    
      was not very secure, had ordered the Danish staff remaining in          
      Islamabad to work out of hotels. This move undoubtedly saved lives, as  
      the bombing killed only a handful of people, mostly Pakistani Muslims.  
                                                                              
      But militants were clearly trying to take their retribution for the     
      cartoons to Denmark itself. Following the October 2009 arrest of U.S.   
      citizen David Headley, American officials learned that Headley, who     
      had conducted preoperational surveillance for the November 2008 Mumbai  
      attacks, had also been dispatched to conduct surveillance in Denmark.   
                                                                              
      According to a complaint filed in federal court, the U.S. government    
      determined that the Kashmiri militant group Harkat-ul-Jihad e-Islami    
      (HUJI) had ordered Headley to travel from Chicago to Copenhagen on two  
      occasions to plan attacks against Jyllands-Posten and cartoonist Kurt   
      Westergaard in what HUJI called *Operation Mickey Mouse.* Westergaard   
      is a Jyllands-Posten cartoonist who drew one of the original batch of   
      12 Mohammed cartoons in 2005. In Westergaard*s cartoon, the Prophet*s   
      turban was depicted as a bomb, which caused the drawing to elicit a     
      stronger reaction than the other cartoons. In January 2009, Headley     
      conducted surveillance of the Jyllands-Posten offices in Copenhagen     
      and Aarhus, Denmark. He then traveled to Pakistan, where he met with    
      his HUJI handlers to brief them on the findings of his surveillance     
      and to formulate an attack plan. Headley traveled back to Copenhagen    
      in August 2009 to conduct additional surveillance (presumably to        
      address issues that arose during the operational planning session in    
      Pakistan). During this second trip, Headley made some 13 additional     
      videos and took many photos of the potential targets and the areas      
      around them. It is suspected that some of the observations,             
      photographs and video recordings may have been used in planning some    
      of the subsequent attacks against Jyllands-Posten and Westergaard.      
                                                                              
      Plots pertaining to the cartoon controversy in 2010 include:            
                                                                              
        * On Jan. 1, a Somali man reportedly associated with the Somali       
          jihadist group al Shabaab broke into Westergaard*s home armed with  
          an axe and knife and allegedly tried to kill him. Westergaard       
          retreated to a safe room and the assailant was shot and wounded by  
          police.                                                             
        * On March 9, seven people were arrested in Ireland in connection     
          with an alleged plot to kill cartoonist Lars Vilks. The group was   
          apparently implicated with American Colleen LaRose (aka Jihad       
          Jane) and included a second American woman, Jamie Paulin-Ramirez.   
        * On May 11, Lars Vilks was assaulted as he tried to give a           
          presentation at Uppsala University in Sweden. On May 14, Vilks*     
          home was the target of a failed arson attack.                       
        * On Sept. 10, a Chechen man was injured when a letter bomb he was    
          assembling detonated prematurely inside a Copenhagen hotel          
          bathroom. The letter bomb, which featured a main charge comprised   
          of triacetone triperoxide and contained small steel pellets, was    
          intended for Jyllands-Posten.                                       
        * On Dec. 11, an Iraqi-born Swedish citizen detonated a poorly        
          constructed explosive device in his car and then detonated a        
          suicide vest, killing himself. The man had sent a warning email     
          expressing anger over the Lars Vilks cartoon as well as the         
          presence of Swedish soldiers in Afghanistan.                        
                                                                              
       Cartoonists Remain in the Crosshairs                                   
                                                                              
      In July 2010, AQAP released the first edition of its English-language   
      magazine Inspire. One of the articles in that issue was written by the  
      American-born Yemeni cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, who wrote, *If you have    
      the right to slander the Messenger of Allah, we have the right to       
      defend him. If it is part of your freedom of speech to defame Muhammad  
      it is part of our religion to fight you.* He added: *Assassinations,    
      bombings, and acts of arson are all legitimate forms of revenge         
      against a system that relishes the sacrilege of Islam in the name of    
      freedom.* Al-Awlaki also referred to a 2008 lecture he gave regarding   
      the cartoon issue titled *The Dust Will Never Settle Down* and noted    
      that, *Today, two years later, the dust still hasn*t settled down. In   
      fact the dust cloud is only getting bigger.*                            
                                                                              
      The first edition of Inspire also featured a *hit list* that includes   
      the names of people like Westergaard and Vilks who were involved in     
      the cartoon controversy as well as other targets such as Dutch          
      politician Geert Wilders, who produced the controversial film Fitna in  
      2008; Ayaan Hirsi Ali, who wrote the screenplay for the movie           
      Submission (filmmaker Theo van Gogh, the director of Submission, was    
      murdered by a jihadist in November 2004); and Salman Rushdie, author    
      of the book The Satanic Verses.                                         
                                                                              
      The van Gogh murder demonstrated that such targets were vulnerable to   
      attack * and not just by highly skilled transnational operatives. They  
      were also potential victims of grassroots jihadists using readily       
      available weapons in relatively simple attacks. The January 2010        
      attack against Kurt Westergaard using an axe and knife underscored      
      this point. In light of the events of 2010, al-Awlaki*s boasts ring     
      true. The dust kicked up over the cartoon issue has not settled * and   
      there is no indication it will any time soon.                           
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 6, 2011 5:43:20 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Russia and its Foreign Policy Dance

      [IMG]                                                                   
                                                                              
      Wednesday, January 5, 2011     [IMG] STRATFOR.COM [IMG] Diary Archives  
                                                                              
                       Russia and its Foreign Policy Dance                    
                                                                              
      The Kremlin announced Wednesday that Russian President Dmitri Medvedev  
      is going to visit the Palestinian territories in a few weeks, just as   
      Medvedev*s trip to Israel has been canceled. Medvedev had planned to    
      go to Israel on Jan. 17-19, but his trip was postponed due to a strike  
      at the Israeli Foreign Ministry. While this may just seem like a        
      logistical and technical issue, there is a shifting Russian foreign     
      policy strategy, giving Moscow freer capability to act against the      
      Israelis and increase support for the Palestinians.                     
                                                                              
      Russia and Israel have had ongoing tense and complex relations. After   
      a post-World War II alliance in the late 1940s, Soviet-era Moscow was   
      a patron of Israel*s enemies * Egypt and Syria. At the time, this was   
      not really about Russia siding against Israel as it was about           
      pressuring the United States* interests in the Middle East.             
                                                                              
      After the Cold War, Israeli and Russian relations were tolerable.       
      Moscow had to pull its support from the Middle East as its empire       
      crumbled and it fought to keep the Russian state together. All this     
      changed in the past decade when Russia began to consolidate, and        
      announced that Russia was on its way back and would soon return as a    
      major player on the international stage.                                
                                                                              
      During this time, Moscow accused Israel of meddling in Russia*s         
      interests by financially and politically backing the anti-Kremlin       
      oligarchs, and militarily supporting Georgia and Russian Muslim         
      republics of Dagestan and Chechnya. Since then, it has been a           
      tit-for-tat between Russia and Israel with Moscow countering those      
      Israeli moves by supporting Iran and Syria in recent years.             
                                                                              
      **Russia is working with all players in the region * keeping everyone   
      dizzy and guessing what it will do next.*                               
                                                                              
      This was part of Russia*s overall foreign policy at the time to         
      unilaterally retaliate for moves made against its interests. One of     
      the larger examples of this was the West*s recognition of an            
      independent Kosovo, followed by Russia*s recognition of independent     
      Abkhazia and South Ossetia * after its war with Georgia. But Russia*s   
      resurgence has now entered a new stage, in which Moscow feels           
      comfortable in its sphere of influence. Naturally, Moscow is still      
      mindful of foreign moves in its surrounding regions, but is confident   
      such moves do not threaten its overall control in the region. Moscow    
      is not only secure enough in its power over Georgia that the issue      
      isn*t a red line in Russian-Israeli relations; Moscow retains options   
      for escalation in Israel*s neighborhood that can deter Israeli actions  
      in Georgia.                                                             
                                                                              
      This new shift has allowed Russia to be able to play more ambiguously   
      than unilaterally in all its foreign policy issues. With Russia in a    
      comfortable status, it feels it can make bolder moves outside of        
      Eurasia. Such alterations have been seen in Russia*s policies in the    
      Middle East, where Moscow has been striking military deals with anyone  
      it can * Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Israel.                          
                                                                              
      This time, increased Russian activity around the world could go beyond  
      theatrics and translate into further support for the Palestinians.      
      There are rumors that Russia is considering actually recognizing an     
      independent Palestinian state. There has already been a change in some  
      weightier countries, like Brazil, supporting Palestine. The Russians    
      could be the next in line. The difference is the Russians have a        
      history of not just diplomatically supporting the Palestinians, but     
      through military, financial and intelligence support.                   
                                                                              
      Moscow*s motivations behind supporting the Palestinians at this time    
      are not clear, since it has been making so many deals with so many      
      countries in the region. Russia could be attempting to make a show      
      against one of Washington*s closest allies * Israel * and the timing    
      of the cancellation of Medvedev*s trip to Israel is suspicious. Russia  
      could be choosing to make this move because of increased discussion of  
      Palestinian support in the European Union * and Russia is looking for   
      agenda issues in which to align. Russia could be in coordination with   
      Brazil, as both countries are strangely side-by-side on myriad foreign  
      policy issues. Additionally, it could be Russia simply wanting to make  
      a global statement that it isn*t worried about repercussions for        
      taking sides on such a controversial issue.                             
                                                                              
      Even if Moscow*s reasoning or endgame is unknown at this time, it*s     
      plain that Russia is working with all players in the region * keeping   
      everyone dizzy and guessing what it will do next.                       
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
      Not For Publication                                                     

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 6, 2011 7:53:27 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: An Alignment of Interests Between Poland and Sweden

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     An Alignment of Interests Between Poland and Sweden                      
                                                                              
      January 6, 2011 | 1319 GMT                                              
      Poland's and Sweden's Aligning Interests                                
      JOHN THYS/AFP/Getty Images                                              
      Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt at EU headquarters in December      
      2009                                                                    
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      Poland and Sweden sent separate warnings to Russia on Jan. 5, Poland    
      in the form of critical comments on Warsaw*s energy dependence on       
      Moscow and Sweden on a possible response to Russia*s planned purchase   
      of French Mistral-class warships. As Russia attempts to consolidate     
      its influence in its Baltic Sea neighbors Latvia and Estonia,           
      conditions are ripe for Poland and Sweden to enhance their diplomatic   
      relationship to include military and security cooperation to counter    
      Moscow*s moves in the region.                                           
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      Two seemingly unrelated events on Jan. 5 suggest that Russia*s Baltic   
      Sea neighbors, Poland and Sweden, are sending a warning to Moscow.      
                                                                              
      First, Polish Ambassador to Russia Wojciech Zajaczkowski said in        
      interviews with Interfax that Warsaw is actively seeking to diversify   
      its gas supply away from Moscow. The comment followed Zajaczkowski*s    
      public statement Jan. 4 regarding Poland*s extremely critical view of   
      Russia*s potential basing of tactical nuclear weapons in its exclave    
      of Kaliningrad and the *futility* of the Russian-German Nordstream      
      pipeline, which the ambassador criticized on economic and               
      environmental grounds.                                                  
                                                                              
      Meanwhile, on Jan. 5 the Swedish Parliamentary Defense Committee        
      forwarded a formal question to Foreign Minister Carl Bildt on how       
      Stockholm intends to respond to Russia*s planned purchase of two        
      French Mistral-class helicopter carriers. Russia signed an official     
      agreement with France to purchase the two carriers, with an option of   
      two more being built in Russia. The first hull is tentatively           
      scheduled for delivery this year and is officially supposed to be       
      based with the Pacific fleet. However, the second will most likely be   
      based in the Baltic Sea, which has irked Baltic states.                 
                                                                              
      An Alignment of Interests Between Poland and Sweden                     
                                                                              
      The timing of both events is notable. Though only recently finalized,   
      the Mistral purchase has been in the works for more than a year, and    
      Poland*s unease with dependency on Russian natural gas is certainly     
      not new. Therefore, both the Swedish parliament*s sudden interest in    
      the Russian-French military deal and the Polish ambassador*s generally  
      aggressive interview * which received considerable negative coverage    
      in Russia * should be considered in the context of the region*s         
      evolving geopolitics.                                                   
                                                                              
      First, both statements closely follow Belarus* presidential elections,  
      the subsequent crackdown on opposition leaders during a rally to        
      protest President Aleksandr Lukashenko*s re-election and Moscow*s       
      support for the regime despite the clashes. Europe, led by the          
      Polish-Swedish Eastern Partnership initiative, has been hoping that it  
      could slowly erode Moscow*s grip on Belarus* geopolitical alignment.    
      However, the result of the presidential elections effectively ended     
      that.                                                                   
                                                                              
      The Polish-Swedish statements also follow recent successful moves by    
      Russia in the Baltic states to increase its influence beyond            
      traditional levers * such as influencing Russian minorities in Latvia   
      and Estonia * to increasing economic and political influence as well.   
      A December visit to Russia by Latvian President Valdis Zatlers          
      illustrated the increased economic links between Moscow and Riga, with  
      Russia becoming Latvia*s second-most-important investor after Sweden.   
      Russia also has effectively increased its influence in both Latvia and  
      Estonia through patronage of relatively pro-Russian political parties   
      (which are now emphasizing their broad appeal), Harmony Center and the  
      Center Party, respectively.                                             
                                                                              
      As such, Poland and Sweden * the other two historical powers in the     
      Baltic Sea region * are looking to counter or at least send a message   
      to Russia that they are watching Moscow*s moves carefully.              
      Zajaczkowski*s statements, in particular, should be carefully studied.  
      He was appointed to his post recently by new Polish President           
      Bronislaw Komorowski, who has said that the age of knee-jerk            
      anti-Russian policy in Poland is over. Zajaczkowski has also been a     
      close foreign policy adviser to Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who  
      has himself personally worked on improving Warsaw-Moscow relations. As  
      such, Zajaczkowski is not a vestige of the former anti-Russian Polish   
      policy and is very much a representative of the Tusk-Komorowski         
      tandem. If he criticizes Russia*s foreign policy, the highest echelons  
      of Polish leadership approve the statements.                            
                                                                              
      Sweden, meanwhile, largely spent 2010 embroiled in a long election      
      season, one of the most contentious in the nation*s recent history.     
      The incumbent center-right government has now returned to power,        
      albeit in a minority. Now Prime Minister Erik Reinfeldt and Foreign     
      Minister Carl Bildt can begin concentrating on regional affairs. Bildt  
      has already made a joint visit with his Polish counterpart to advance   
      the Eastern Partnership program in Ukraine and Moldova * specifically   
      to try to increase the chances of a pro-European government in          
      Chisinau * and has hosted the Ukrainian foreign minister in Stockholm.  
      In other words, Sweden made it a point to announce its return to        
      regional politics in December.                                          
                                                                              
      The question, however, is whether Sweden and Poland are willing to      
      increase their own collaboration in the region beyond active            
      diplomacy. For the past two years, STRATFOR sources in Poland have      
      emphasized Warsaw*s willingness to enhance its relationship with        
      Sweden to include military and security cooperation. STRATFOR is now    
      also hearing similar thoughts emanating from Stockholm. With the        
      United States * Poland*s traditional post-Cold War security ally *      
      likely continuing to be embroiled in the Middle East for the            
      foreseeable future and refusing to offer Warsaw any robust security     
      reassurances, Poland will be looking for alternatives, at least in the  
      short term. Sweden has a traditionally defended its neutrality          
      aggressively and thus has a robust military and arms industry. Its      
      interests are also currently aligned with Warsaw as Moscow continues    
      to expand its influence in Eastern Europe, particularly in Latvia and   
      Estonia.                                                                
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
      Not For Publication                                                     
      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 6, 2011 11:05:20 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Stratfor's World Snapshot

      Stratfor logo                      January 6, 2011                      
     Stratfor's World Snapshot                                                
                                                                              
      An Alignment of Interests Between Poland and Sweden                     
      JOHN THYS/AFP/Getty Images                                              
      Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt at EU headquarters in December      
      2009                                                                    
                                                                              
     An Alignment of Interests Between Poland and Sweden                      
                                                                              
      January 6, 2011 1319 GMT                                                
      Conditions are ripe for Warsaw and Stockholm to enhance their           
      diplomatic relationship to include military and security cooperation    
      in the face of an emerging Russia. [more]                               
      China Security Memo: Jan. 5, 2011                                       
                                                                              
     China Security Memo: Jan. 5, 2011                                        
                                                                              
      January 5, 2011 2012 GMT                                                
      The death of a re-emerging village leader has Chinese *netizens*        
      concerned about an official cover-up. (With STRATFOR interactive map)   
      [more]                                                                  
      U.S. Naval Update Map: Jan. 5, 2011                                     
                                                                              
     U.S. Naval Update Map: Jan. 5, 2011                                      
                                                                              
      January 5, 2011 1839 GMT                                                
      A weekly approximation of the current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike  
      Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups, based on available open-source      
      information. (With STRATFOR map) [more]                                 
      Ukraine's Place in Russia's Evolving Foreign Policy                     
                                                                              
     Ukraine's Place in Russia's Evolving Foreign Policy                      
                                                                              
      January 5, 2011 1403 GMT                                                
      Having increased its influence in its near abroad, Russia is taking a   
      more nuanced approach to its foreign policy, particularly in Ukraine.   
      [more]                                                                  
                                                                              
      More Analysis &gt;&gt;                                                        
                                                                              
     Situation Reports                                                        
                                                                              
     Latvia: State Of Emergency To Be Declared                                
                                                                              
      January 6, 2011 1658 GMT                                                
      Latvian Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis said a nationwide state of    
      emergency will be declared the afternoon of Jan. 6 to facilitate the    
      restoration of electricity amid a blizzard, The Baltic... [more]        
                                                                              
     China: 2 Surveillance Patrol Ships Added                                 
                                                                              
      January 6, 2011 1640 GMT                                                
                                                                              
     Iran: U.S. Woman Not In Country                                          
                                                                              
      January 6, 2011 1632 GMT                                                
                                                                              
     Iran: President Appoints Palestinian Adviser                             
                                                                              
      January 6, 2011 1625 GMT                                                
      More Situation Reports &gt;&gt;                                               
                                                                              
     Weekly Intelligence Reports                                              
                                                                              
      The Mohammed Cartoon Dust Has Not Settled                               
                                                                              
     The Mohammed Cartoon Dust Has Not Settled                                
                                                                              
      January 6, 2011 0955 GMT                                                
      Controversy stirred up over cartoons depicting the Prophet Mohammed in  
      2005 was still swirling in 2010 and is not likely to die down any time  
      soon. [more]                                                            
      Egypt and the Destruction of Churches: Strategic Implications           
                                                                              
     Egypt and the Destruction of Churches: Strategic Implications            
                                                                              
      January 4, 2011 1003 GMT                                                
      Separating Terror from Terrorism                                        
                                                                              
     Separating Terror from Terrorism                                         
                                                                              
      December 30, 2010 0955 GMT                                              
      Making Sense of the START Debate                                        
                                                                              
     Making Sense of the START Debate                                         
                                                                              
      December 28, 2010 0950 GMT                                              
      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 6, 2011 1:23:14 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Afghanistan: More Marines Bound for the Taliban's Home Turf

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Afghanistan: More Marines Bound for the Taliban's Home Turf              
                                                                              
      January 6, 2011 | 1842 GMT                                              
      Afghanistan: More Marines Bound for the Taliban's Home Turf             
      Nathan Hughes/STRATFOR                                                  
      Marines on a patrol in southern Marjah                                  
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      At least 1,400 additional U.S. Marines are being dispatched to          
      Afghanistan while more troops are being considered. The Pentagon is     
      also thinking about ways to rebalance the force in-country and adjust   
      scheduled unit rotations. While none of these changes amount to a       
      game-changer in Afghanistan (in a strategic sense, the troop increases  
      are modest), they will certainly have tactical utility. They may also   
      reflect some concern about the durability of gains achieved thus far.   
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
      STRATFOR BOOK                                                           
        * Afghanistan at the Crossroads: Insights on the Conflict             
      Related Special Topic Page                                              
        * The War in Afghanistan                                              
      Related Links                                                           
        * A Week in the War: Afghanistan, Dec. 29, 2010-Jan. 4, 2011          
        * Afghanistan: Momentum and Initiative in Counterinsurgency           
        * Obama*s Plan and the Key Battleground                               
                                                                              
      The United States will dispatch an additional Marine infantry           
      battalion to Afghanistan, set to arrive by the middle of January.       
      Totaling some 1,400 troops, the battalion is bound for the main effort  
      of the U.S.-led campaign, where forces have been massed in Helmand and  
      Kandahar provinces. The additional Marines are in addition to the       
      rotational deployments to sustain the surge level of U.S. and allied    
      troops (totaling nearly 150,000) meant to be maintained until July.     
      Some 1,600 additional combat troops are also under consideration, as    
      is a rebalancing of forces already committed to increase their combat   
      power and bandwidth. Other possible measures include delaying the       
      scheduled departure of units already in Afghanistan and accelerating    
      the deployment of those originally scheduled for April and May.         
                                                                              
      In accordance with its counterinsurgency-focused strategy, the          
      U.S.-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) has singled     
      out most of Helmand and Kandahar provinces as *key terrain.* This is    
      the Taliban*s home turf, and most of the surge forces are being         
      concentrated here to deny the Taliban this center of gravity, from      
      which they have traditionally enjoyed considerable financial and        
      popular support.                                                        
                                                                              
      However, despite the surging and massing of combat power here, the      
      area*s size and population distribution * as well as the timeline on    
      which the ISAF is trying to reshape military, political and economic    
      realities * mean that the force will remain thinly spread. Based on     
      its own metrics, the Pentagon was pushing at one point for as many as   
      40,000 U.S. troops for the surge announced just over a year ago,        
      rather than the 30,000 the White House eventually agreed to deploy. If  
      all the additional forces now being considered are deployed and the     
      adjustments made accordingly, the net effect could be an increase in    
      the number of U.S. troops in country from 30,000 to almost 40,000.      
                                                                              
      Afghanistan: More Marines Bound for the Taliban's Home Turf             
      (click here to enlarge image)                                           
                                                                              
      Recent months have shown some indications of progress, and the ISAF is  
      looking to push its advantage and use the traditional lull in fighting  
      over the winter months to further consolidate its tentative gains and   
      ensure as strong a position as possible ahead of the spring thaw, when  
      Taliban activity is expected to intensify. In other words, the          
      recently granted request for the additional Marine battalion was a      
      pre-emptive move, rather than a reactionary one, in a fluid             
      operational environment; requests for additional forces can be          
      expected in a war zone as dynamic as Afghanistan.                       
                                                                              
      But even if the full allocation of 3,000 additional combat troops       
      under consideration is approved, this remains a request with tactical   
      and * at most * operational-level significance. These troops will not   
      represent a game-changer, and plans for their deployment appear to be   
      consistent with the current counterinsurgency-focused strategy. The     
      same challenges and questions surrounding the strategy remain, and the  
      year ahead will be a defining one for the campaign. The deployment of   
      an additional Marine battalion, along with the additional measures      
      being considered, reflects a clear awareness of how important this      
      year will be. In all likelihood, it also reflects some concern about    
      the reversibility of ISAF gains and the limitations of the current      
      timetable.                                                              
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 6, 2011 3:05:47 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: China Eyes Spain to Expand its South American Reach

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     China Eyes Spain to Expand its South American Reach                      
                                                                              
      January 6, 2011 | 1940 GMT                                              
      China Eyes Spain to Expand its South American Reach                     
      DOMINIQUE FAGET/AFP/Getty Images                                        
      Spanish Industry Minister Miguel Sebastian Gascon (L) and Chinese Vice  
      Premier Li Keqiang in Madrid on Jan. 5                                  
      Summary                                                                 
                                                                              
      China*s vice premier completed his trip to Spain on Jan. 5, finalizing  
      16 business deals worth $7.5 billion. A large part of the deals is      
      expanded cooperation between Chinese state-run energy company Sinopec   
      and Spanish energy firm Repsol YPF. Madrid previously had been cool to  
      such offers, but its current economic doldrums and China*s offer to     
      buy more Spanish government debt and assist the country*s economy have  
      caused it to reverse its long-standing opposition to foreign ownership  
      in the strategic company.                                               
                                                                              
      Analysis                                                                
                                                                              
      Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang wrapped up his trip to Spain on Jan.    
      5, concluding 16 business deals worth $7.5 billion, of which $7.1       
      billion derives from a deal struck in October for Chinese state energy  
      company Sinopec to take a 40 percent stake in Spanish energy firm       
      Repsol YPF*s Brazilian subsidiary. Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis     
      Rodriguez Zapatero pledged to continue economic cooperation between     
      China and Spain, specifically stressing Beijing*s desire to jointly     
      explore third-party markets.                                            
                                                                              
      Spain previously had been resistant to investment by state-linked       
      foreign companies, but China*s offers of economic assistance appear to  
      have prodded a shift. For its part, China hopes to use its investment   
      in the Repsol subsidiary to gain physical assets in Latin America as    
      well as draw upon the company*s wealth of experience in business        
      dealings in the region.                                                 
                                                                              
      The warming relations between Beijing and Madrid come as Spain is       
      dealing with 19.8 percent unemployment, austerity measures, and a       
      potential return to recession in 2011 due to budgetary cuts and         
      general pessimism from markets * Madrid is attempting to raise 163.3    
      billion euros ($212.5 billion) to fund its deficit and refinance its    
      debts. China has maintained it will support the Spanish economy,        
      recently emphasizing that it would buy more Spanish government debt.    
      In return, Rodriguez Zapatero said Spain would support the European     
      Union*s recognition of China as a full market economy and the lifting   
      of the EU arms embargo against China, both issues that Beijing very     
      much wants addressed.                                                   
                                                                              
      Spain, however, does not carry enough weight in the European Union to   
      move the political heavyweights on either of the two issues of Chinese  
      interest. And while Spain*s economy * the fourth-largest in the         
      eurozone, with 46 million people * is certainly an enticing market for  
      Chinese goods, Spain has never really been an avenue for greater        
      European economic penetration due to its geographic position on         
      Europe*s periphery. China*s larger interest * and the reason for its    
      offer of assistance to Madrid during the current economic duress * in   
      fact has very little to do with Spain or the wider European market,     
      but rather concerns Spanish energy assets in Latin America and          
      particularly Repsol*s presence on that continent. Following the visit,  
      Repsol chairman Antonio Brufau said there were *synergies between       
      Repsol and Sinopec* and that the companies would expand their           
      cooperation worldwide without stating where.                            
                                                                              
      China Eyes Spain to Expand its South American Reach                     
      (click here to enlarge image)                                           
                                                                              
      This is a change in tone from Repsol on Chinese investments. In fact,   
      until the October infusion of capital into Repsol*s Brazilian           
      subsidiary * Sinopec*s 40 percent stake * China had seen its overtures  
      mostly rejected by the company. Chinese state-owned energy companies    
      China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC) and China National Petroleum  
      Corp. unsuccessfully tried to acquire a stake in Repsol*s Argentine     
      subsidiary in 2006 and 2007, followed by several failed attempts by     
      CNOOC and Sinopec to acquire a direct stake in Repsol. Finally, after   
      unsuccessfully bidding for a controlling stake in Repsol*s Argentine    
      subsidiary, CNOOC and Sinopec were directly rebuffed by Spanish         
      Industry Minister Miguel Sebastian Gascon when he said the Spanish      
      government was uninterested in strategic investments by Chinese         
      companies in sensitive sectors. (China has often been rejected on       
      strategic grounds in its increasingly aggressive foreign assets         
      acquisition spree, though it has still acquired a great number of       
      valuable assets over the years.)                                        
                                                                              
      Although now a fully privatized energy company, Repsol has long been    
      considered the jewel of the Spanish economy. It has more than 40,000    
      employees and its total revenue approached $50 billion in 2009. It is   
      not considered one of the global energy majors but is comparable in     
      terms of revenues to large energy companies such as Indonesia*s         
      Petronas, the United States* Marathon Oil or Russia*s LUKoil. Because   
      of its place in the Spanish economy, Madrid has rebuffed attempts by    
      state-owned companies in Russia * specifically Gazprom, but also        
      privately owned, Kremlin-linked LUKoil * and China to acquire the 20    
      percent stake in Repsol that was on the market in late 2008 and early   
      2009 as Spanish construction giant Sacyr Vallehermoso, which held the   
      stake, reeled from the economic crisis. For Madrid, handing over part   
      of such a prized possession to a state-run foreign entity was seen as   
      a national security concern.                                            
                                                                              
      The Russians and Chinese want Repsol because of its assets in Latin     
      America; China specifically wants its offshore producing assets and     
      any assets close to export infrastructure. However, it is not only      
      Repsol*s physical assets in the region that are lucrative * although    
      they would be the main target of Chinese investments * but also its     
      long tradition of operating on the continent, its understanding of the  
      culture and its general business acumen regarding the region. The       
      networks, business contacts and understanding of how to operate in      
      Latin America would all be beneficial for Chinese companies looking     
      for energy suppliers to satisfy China*s thirst for raw materials. Thus  
      far, the Chinese have relied on their political relationships with      
      various political leaders on the continent to penetrate into the        
      region. A relationship with Repsol would bolster this political acumen  
      with some much-needed business and technological expertise.             
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 6, 2011 3:55:02 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Dispatch: Shared Oil Interests in Sudan

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Dispatch: Shared Oil Interests in Sudan                                  
                                                                              
      January 6, 2011 | 2145 GMT                                              
      Click on image below to watch video:                                    
      [IMG]                                                                   
                                                                              
      Analyst Mark Schroeder examines the upcoming Jan. 9 referendum on       
      Southern Sudanese independence and how shared oil interests with Sudan  
      will likely keep both countries from a return to civil war.             
                                                                              
      Editor*s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition       
      technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete         
      accuracy.                                                               
                                                                              
      On Sunday, Jan. 9, Southern Sudan will hold a referendum vote on        
      independence. It is widely expected that that region, currently an      
      autonomous region of Sudan, will vote in favor of declaring itself to   
      be independent.                                                         
                                                                              
      First what will happen is the referendum vote on Jan. 9 but             
      technically even if that vote goes in favor of declaring independence,  
      legally Southern Sudan cannot make that declaration of independence     
      until July. This is a legality enshrined in a peace agreement that was  
      negotiated as far back as 2005, and so what will happen in between the  
      Jan. 9 vote and July is a long-standing period of protracted, intense   
      negotiations over what the actual relations and means of cooperation    
      will be between that new state of Southern Sudan and the rest of        
      Sudan. The big topic, the big concern is whether this referendum vote   
      and possible declaration of independence will lead to a return of       
      civil war between the north and south in Sudan. But at STRATFOR we      
      don*t expect to see a return to civil war. There is one issue that      
      forces the two parts of that country to cooperate and that is crude     
      oil, and the crude oil found largely on that internal border between    
      north and south.                                                        
                                                                              
      Now Sudan is not a major oil-producing state * Sudan*s output is about  
      500,000 barrels per day. The oil found in Sudan is the main resource    
      that both governments there rely on. For Juba in Southern Sudan, the    
      revenues they receive from oil production contribute probably about 95  
      percent of its budget. For Sudan similarly oil is the main part of its  
      domestic economy. It still has a small manufacturing base, and a small  
      but still significant agriculture sector in Sudan but the main          
      international commodity that Sudan brings to bear is that crude oil.    
      Even though the majority of crude oil fields are in southern Sudanese   
      territory, the only way to export that is through northern Sudanese     
      territory. And this brings us back to why these two actors and          
      territories must cooperate, they are mutually dependent on each other   
      for their economic well-being.                                          
                                                                              
      Click for more videos                                                   
                                                                              
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      This report may be forwarded or republished on your website with        
      attribution to www.stratfor.com                                         
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      (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 7, 2011 6:07:21 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Beijing Tells the Provinces To Slow Down

      [IMG]                                                                   
                                                                              
      Thursday, January 6, 2011      [IMG] STRATFOR.COM [IMG] Diary Archives  
                                                                              
                     Beijing Tells the Provinces To Slow Down                 
                                                                              
      Zhang Ping, director of China*s powerful National Development and       
      Reform Commission (NDRC) * the leading economic planner * called on     
      China*s provinces to slow down their economic growth targets for 2011   
      and take into consideration the effects of growth on *energy,           
      environment, water and land.* Zhang said only five or six provinces     
      have lowered their growth targets to 8 or 9 percent * 8 percent being   
      the Communist Party*s estimated rate of growth necessary to maintain    
      sufficient job creation. The others have targeted 10 percent growth     
      rates or higher, and some aim to double their total output in five      
      years.                                                                  
                                                                              
      Zhang*s comments point to the central government*s pragmatic desire     
      for the provincial growth targets to be consistent with the national    
      target. Beijing also does not want provinces to set themselves up for   
      a deadline-driven rush that will increase costs or intentionally use    
      fake numbers to please the central government. Beijing eventually       
      wants to reduce its emphasis on using economic indicators to judge      
      political performance, since it sets rapid growth as the sole good,     
      which has led to a variety of economic policy abuses and social         
      distortions. The government wants a more accurate picture, and is       
      urging the provinces to prepare for lower and * ideally * more          
      sustainable growth. It is also trying to alleviate the massive          
      pressure on China*s domestic resources and ability to acquire           
      sufficient resources from abroad.                                       
                                                                              
      *The provinces show no self-restraint because they are profiting from   
      the easy credit and endless economic boom and, on a deeper level,       
      because they fear a recession would create unemployment-charged         
      uprisings that would see them alone in their tower under siege.*        
                                                                              
      But Zhang*s comments are also emblematic of a deep tension in China*s   
      system. Struggles between the central political power and the           
      provincial powers define Chinese history. The country has three core    
      economic and population regions * the North China Plain and Yellow      
      River Delta (Beijing), the Yangtze Delta (Shanghai), and the Pearl      
      River Delta (Guangdong) * with mountains splitting the south from the   
      north. In addition, there are other populous enclaves like the          
      Northeast or Sichuan Basin, the far western deserts and wastelands,     
      and the breakaway province of Taiwan. The country is equally disposed   
      to division and warring kingdoms as it is to unity through rigidly      
      centralized bureaucracy. The center demands the regions adhere to its   
      edicts and remain unified to protect against foreign exploitation or    
      invasion; the regions amass wealth for themselves, compete with each    
      other, and ignore or resist the center.                                 
                                                                              
      The Communist Revolution marked a 30-year period of national            
      reformation and central consolidation. But eventually, China found it   
      needed economic growth, and the opening up of 1978 gave room for        
      special zones and eventually entire provinces to re-engage in market    
      activity. The result was an explosion of economic growth that           
      continues. Within this growth, the economy has waxed and waned,         
      primarily responding to the central government*s devolving power to     
      the provinces to allow them to race, and then struggling to tighten     
      the reins.                                                              
                                                                              
      Now, China is manifestly nearing the peak of that super-cycle of        
      economic expansion. The failure of the growth model is particularly a   
      problem after the global crisis when exports collapsed. China poured    
      credit into the economy to skip over the recession, but at the expense  
      of rising costs for the natural resources necessary to maintain this    
      growth and deepening disparities in wealth and social frustrations.     
      Small steps to tighten growth in 2010 had limited effects, giving way   
      to a reassertion of the desire for growth. Thus, the top technicians    
      in control of the country*s financial system face the dilemma of        
      making forceful demands to slow the economy at the risk of driving it   
      into the ground * or continuing with small adjustments and thereby      
      revealing their weak will and emboldening the provincial warlords. The  
      provinces show no self-restraint because they are profiting from the    
      easy credit and endless economic boom and, on a deeper level, because   
      they fear a recession would create unemployment-charged uprisings that  
      would see them alone in their tower under siege.                        
                                                                              
      Beijing has faced the dilemma before * notably in the late 1980s and    
      mid-1990s * but it is especially hesitant to force its way now because  
      of a monumental political change approaching. The older generation of   
      leaders is passing the torch in 2012-13, and power transitions cannot   
      yet be said to be a casual or comfortable affair in the People*s        
      Republic. So, a generational division overlays the central-provincial   
      divisions * some of the young leaders, finding support from the         
      central policy specialists, are more inclined to impose controls on     
      the economy and try to engineer a smooth descent, so that they do not   
      inherit an about-to-burst or already bursting bubble and instead have   
      the option of reaccelerating when they take power to benefit their      
      personal networks and consolidate power.                                
                                                                              
      But some powerful voices in the older generation, aided by the          
      provincial warlords and their patrons, seem to lack the appetite for    
      risky policy moves. They are constrained by the niggling fear that      
      however well planned, an attempt to moderate growth now could trigger   
      an irreversible slowdown and the conclusion of the growth super-cycle   
      that has held for the past 30 years. An economic disjunction of that    
      magnitude could in turn precipitate the kind of totalizing              
      socio-political revolution that has occurred every 30 or 40 years in    
      China*s modern history. They are demanding a proud legacy when they     
      retire and the regime is demanding a smooth transition for its own      
      sake. But there is no guarantee they will get this, and, for now, the   
      policy tug-of-war intensifies.                                          
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
      on this report                               other reports              
                                                                              
      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
      Not For Publication                                                     

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 7, 2011 11:11:05 AM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Stratfor's World Snapshot

      Stratfor logo                      January 7, 2011                      
     Stratfor's World Snapshot                                                
                                                                              
      China Eyes Spain to Expand its South American Reach                     
      DOMINIQUE FAGET/AFP/Getty Images                                        
      Spanish Industry Minister Miguel Sebastian Gascon (L) and Chinese Vice  
      Premier Li Keqiang in Madrid on Jan. 5                                  
                                                                              
     China Eyes Spain to Expand its South American Reach                      
                                                                              
      January 6, 2011 1940 GMT                                                
      China is using Spain's dire economic condition to get Madrid to allow   
      joint ventures in Latin America with Spanish energy firm Repsol YPF,    
      expanding Beijing's economic reach and getting valuable experience in   
      the process. (With STRATFOR map) [more]                                 
      Afghanistan: More Marines Bound for the Taliban's Home Turf             
                                                                              
     Afghanistan: More Marines Bound for the Taliban's Home Turf              
                                                                              
      January 6, 2011 1842 GMT                                                
      Another U.S. Marine battalion ordered up for the Helmand-Kandahar area  
      is a tactical-scale increase in keeping with the counterinsurgency      
      strategy. [more]                                                        
      An Alignment of Interests Between Poland and Sweden                     
                                                                              
     An Alignment of Interests Between Poland and Sweden                      
                                                                              
      January 6, 2011 1319 GMT                                                
      Conditions are ripe for Warsaw and Stockholm to enhance their           
      diplomatic relationship to include military and security cooperation    
      in the face of an emerging Russia. [more]                               
      China Security Memo: Jan. 5, 2011                                       
                                                                              
     China Security Memo: Jan. 5, 2011                                        
                                                                              
      January 5, 2011 2012 GMT                                                
      The death of a re-emerging village leader has Chinese *netizens*        
      concerned about an official cover-up. (With STRATFOR interactive map)   
      [more]                                                                  
                                                                              
      More Analysis &gt;&gt;                                                        
                                                                              
     Situation Reports                                                        
                                                                              
     U.S.: Envoy Meets Pakistani Army Chief                                   
                                                                              
      January 7, 2011 1649 GMT                                                
      U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Frank          
      Ruggiero met with Pakistani Chief of Army Staff Gen. Ashfaq Kayani at   
      the army's General Headquarters on Jan. 7, according to a... [more]     
                                                                              
     Cuba: 75,000 Private-sector Work Permits Granted                         
                                                                              
      January 7, 2011 1645 GMT                                                
                                                                              
     China, Germany: $8.7 Billion Worth Of Deals To Be Signed                 
                                                                              
      January 7, 2011 1644 GMT                                                
                                                                              
     Cuba: $3.9 Billion Trade Surplus In 2010                                 
                                                                              
      January 7, 2011 1642 GMT                                                
      More Situation Reports &gt;&gt;                                               
                                                                              
     Weekly Intelligence Reports                                              
                                                                              
      The Mohammed Cartoon Dust Has Not Settled                               
                                                                              
     The Mohammed Cartoon Dust Has Not Settled                                
                                                                              
      January 6, 2011 0955 GMT                                                
      Controversy stirred up over cartoons depicting the Prophet Mohammed in  
      2005 was still swirling in 2010 and is not likely to die down any time  
      soon. [more]                                                            
      Egypt and the Destruction of Churches: Strategic Implications           
                                                                              
     Egypt and the Destruction of Churches: Strategic Implications            
                                                                              
      January 4, 2011 1003 GMT                                                
      Separating Terror from Terrorism                                        
                                                                              
     Separating Terror from Terrorism                                         
                                                                              
      December 30, 2010 0955 GMT                                              
      Making Sense of the START Debate                                        
                                                                              
     Making Sense of the START Debate                                         
                                                                              
      December 28, 2010 0950 GMT                                              
      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 7, 2011 2:13:04 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Agenda: With George Friedman

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Agenda: With George Friedman                                             
                                                                              
      January 7, 2011 | 2003 GMT                                              
      Click on image below to watch video:                                    
      [IMG]                                                                   
                                                                              
      STRATFOR founder George Friedman discusses the theme of his             
      forthcoming book, *The Next Decade,* and explains why the United        
      States has to change the way it deals with today*s world.               
                                                                              
      Editor*s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition       
      technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete         
      accuracy.                                                               
                                                                              
      Colin: The United States has stumbled into empire and, like ancient     
      Rome, it faces the prospect that the empire will annihilate the         
      republic. That*s the thread in a new book I read over the holidays by   
      STRATFOR founder George Friedman. It*s a fascinating sequel to *The     
      Next 100 Years* that was published two years ago.                       
                                                                              
      Welcome to the first Agenda of 2011. George, can you explain to me the  
      thrust of your new book?                                                
                                                                              
      Dr. Friedman: Well, it begins with the question of republic and         
      empire. We are a republic, we were founded as a republic; we*ve         
      become, unintentionally, an empire. The question is how these two       
      things coincide. I locate the solution * if there is a solution * in    
      the presidency, in the ability of a president to lead and reconcile     
      these things. Presidents like Reagan, Roosevelt and Lincoln did it,     
      presidents like Carter and Bush didn*t; how do we bring them all        
      together? And then I turn to the question of foreign policy very        
      concretely: Region by region, how should the American president in the  
      next decade and manage its foreign relations? I make the case that the  
      United States must become less active in the world, use the balance of  
      power more effectively, manipulate the other countries more             
      effectively because United States can*t become committed to any one     
      region or any one issue * it has a world to manage.                     
                                                                              
      Colin: Of course, in the last 10 years * and particularly since 9/11 *  
      the United States has been hyperactive, particularly in the Middle      
      East. Will the Middle East still be the center of attention for the     
      next 10 years?                                                          
                                                                              
      Dr. Friedman: The United States, in facing 9/11, had to make a          
      response. The response was to focus in obsessively on the question of   
      terrorism and therefore on this one region of the world. It is an       
      extraordinarily important region of the world, and terrorism is an      
      important matter, but it cannot be the only matter, and it can*t be     
      the only region the United States focuses on. The United States has to  
      rebalance his policies, not by trivializing this region but by being    
      present in the region in a somewhat different way. In other words, to   
      maintain the balance of power between India and Pakistan, to maintain   
      the balance of power between the Arabs and Israelis, to maintain the    
      balance of power between Turkey and Iraq. The United States can*t       
      simply commit its troops to one mission because that invites disaster   
      elsewhere.                                                              
                                                                              
      The United States will either have to come to terms with Iran or go to  
      war with Iran. The problem is that in going to war in Iran there is     
      never the certainty of victory and is a very difficult mission. But if  
      the United States intends to withdraw from Iraq, we have to remember    
      that Iran is the most powerful conventional force in the region and     
      that that conventional force is there with or without nuclear weapons.  
      Withdrawal from Iraq either gives Iran tremendous power in Iraq and     
      the Persian Gulf or else requires some sort of settlement, some sort    
      of understanding between the United States and Iran. That sounds        
      preposterous and unthinkable but no more unthinkable than the           
      U.S.-Chinese relationship would*ve been in 1965 or a U.S.-Soviet        
      relationship would have been in 1930. History is full of the            
      improbable, and this will be one of them.                               
                                                                              
      Colin: Go back to the millennium, 10 years ago, and few people would    
      have thought that Russia would have made such a recovery or that China  
      would make the progress that has.                                       
                                                                              
      Dr. Friedman: Well, STRATFOR did view Russia as re-emerging as a        
      power, and I would say that STRATFOR did view China as occupying the    
      place in the world that it does today, which is a growing economy in    
      an impoverished country with very little military global capability.    
      So it depends what we think they*ve achieved.                           
                                                                              
      But I think when look forward to this, we see Russia having achieved a  
      kind of balance that secures its interests and shyness facing the       
      ongoing crisis of how to manage country in which 70 million people,     
      perhaps, live middle-class lives and over a billion people live in      
      extraordinary poverty. This is a political problem, it*s an economic    
      problem, and it*s a social problem.                                     
                                                                              
      Colin: What are the limits to Russian power?                            
                                                                              
      Dr. Friedman: The limits to Russian power are more self-imposed. The    
      Russians no longer want to occupy Western Europe; they want to reach    
      accommodation with them. If they*re too aggressive, countries like      
      Germany won*t accommodate them. But Germany depends on Russian natural  
      gas Russia wants German capital and technology invested there. There    
      are synergies of interest between Russia and some of the European       
      countries. Russia now does not want to be a great imperial power; it    
      wants to be integrated into economic wealth, and it*s going to reach    
      out and try to do that.                                                 
                                                                              
      Colin: That may be the situation, but the new relationship between      
      Moscow and Berlin is causing problems for a lot of people,              
      particularly Poles.                                                     
                                                                              
      Dr. Friedman: Right now, the Poles don*t know quite what to do about    
      it; they*re hoping for a larger American commitment to them. But that   
      commitment can*t happen until things settle down a bit in the Middle    
      East; U.S. forces are committed there, and they*re not available        
      elsewhere. And therefore, I would argue that this is one of the         
      interconnectedness of the world * the U.S. rebalancing its position in  
      the Middle East releases forces to block this entente between Germany   
      and Russia getting out of hand.                                         
                                                                              
      Colin: George, we*ve only been able to skate over the surface of your   
      new book. When will we actually be able to read it?                     
                                                                              
      Dr. Friedman: It*s published on Jan. 25. I can*t wait to see what*s in  
      it.                                                                     
                                                                              
      Colin: *The Next Decade,* by George Friedman, published by Doubleday,   
      that can be ordered online from STRATFOR. And watch for more            
      conversations I*ll have with George over the next couple of weeks on    
      some of the controversial conclusions about Israel, Iran, Pakistan,     
      China and Europe. From me, Colin Chapman, that*s Agenda for this week.  
      See you again next week.                                                
                                                                              
      Click for more videos                                                   
                                                                              
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   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 7, 2011 2:44:37 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: China May Scrap Lending Quota

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     China May Scrap Lending Quota                                            
                                                                              
      January 7, 2011 | 2022 GMT                                              
      China May Scrap Lending Quota                                           
      RAUL ARBOLEDA/AFP/Getty Images                                          
      Chinese Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan                            
                                                                              
      A Shanghai Securities News report Jan. 6 citing an unnamed source       
      claimed the Chinese government will not set a formal lending target     
      for banks in 2011. Instead, the report said, it will guide the flow of  
      credit based on the broader economic situation, with inflation and      
      economic growth as the main indicators.                                 
                                                                              
      The quota and pace of Chinese loan issuance is an important indicator   
      for China*s economy, attracting much attention. China*s proactive       
      credit policy, implemented to cope with the global economic slowdown    
      that began in November 2008, has seen lending hit a record 9.59         
      trillion yuan ($1.45 billion) in 2009 and around 8 trillion yuan in     
      2010 (with off-the-books lending estimated to be another 4 trillion     
      yuan in 2010). The loan surge and excessive liquidity contributed to    
      exacerbated inflationary pressure in the second half of 2010, which     
      prompted wide speculation that Beijing would lower this year*s lending  
      target, likely to 6-7 trillion yuan.                                    
                                                                              
      China May Scrap Lending Quota                                           
      (click here to enlarge image)                                           
                                                                              
      However, multiple STRATFOR sources have indicated that 2011*s lending   
      target will remain at 2010*s target of 7.5 trillion yuan (though one    
      source indicated that 1 trillion of that would come from                
      off-balance-sheet lending from last year that would be moved into the   
      books, making for a de facto 6.5 trillion yuan quota). Should Beijing   
      fail to lower the quota, it would signify a continuation of loose       
      credit policy as a complement to the central government*s pledge to     
      maintain a proactive fiscal policy in 2011. In this context, the new    
      indication that Beijing will abandon the annual quota entirely is       
      intriguing. First, it indicates a lack of agreement over whether the    
      primary challenge for the country is excessive inflation or the risk    
      of slowdown. Second, removing a formal lending target suggests that     
      the government is not decisively lowering lending in 2011. Instead, it  
      may suggest the government*s concern about a potential economic         
      slowdown is greater than its concern about inflation driven by excess   
      lending.                                                                
                                                                              
      By not setting a target, the central government may want greater        
      autonomy to adjust loan issuance * by not committing to a specified     
      quota, adjustments can be made later without risk to the central        
      bank*s credibility. Beijing may want to regulate banks on an            
      individual basis without setting concrete limitations, flexibly         
      adjusting lending to react to economic uncertainties. This way Beijing  
      can respond effectively if lending needs to be boosted or tightened     
      (for certain banks or across the entire banking sector).                
                                                                              
      The move may also help curb banks* behavior. High levels of lending     
      are normal for Chinese banks at the beginning of the year (a Jan. 6     
      report said lending may exceed 1 trillion yuan in January) as banks     
      hurry to lend before expected tightening announcements are made later   
      in the year. If Beijing does not set limits, banks could theoretically  
      see less reason to rush loan issuance at the beginning of the year.     
      However, the threat of tightening policy in the future, combined with   
      this lack of a quota, could drive banks to lend even more               
      aggressively.                                                           
                                                                              
      China*s policy on new lending remains unclear, but the fact that        
      contradictory reports have emerged in recent months indicates intense   
      debate is under way in Beijing as the country faces greater economic    
      uncertainty (for instance, Chinese media reports suggest the Central    
      Bank and the National Development and Reform Commission have disagreed  
      on an exact loan quota). The possibility of no quota breaks with        
      tradition, suggesting a higher degree of disagreement than normal.      
      Combined with Beijing*s pledge to maintain a proactive fiscal policy    
      this year, concern over a possible economic downturn will remain a      
      priority for the government.                                            
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
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      For Publication                              Reader Comments            
                                                                              
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      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 7, 2011 4:51:26 PM CST
     To: allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Al-Sadr's Return to Iraq and the U.S.-Iranian Entanglement

      Stratfor logo                                                           
     Al-Sadr's Return to Iraq and the U.S.-Iranian Entanglement               
                                                                              
      January 7, 2011 | 2223 GMT                                              
      Al-Sadr's Return to Iraq                                                
      QASSEM ZEIN/AFP/Getty Images                                            
      Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr arrives in Najaf, Iraq, on Jan. 5         
                                                                              
      Radical Iraqi Shiite Islamist leader Muqtada al-Sadr is expected to     
      make a major speech Jan. 8 in which he will spell out his movement*s    
      agenda. Al-Sadr, the leader of the single largest Shiite political      
      bloc in Iraq, returned Jan. 5 to Iraq from Iran, where he has spent     
      most of time over the past several years shoring up his credentials as  
      a bona fide cleric.                                                     
                                                                              
      Contrary to widespread fears, he probably intends to engage not in      
      violence, but in politics. And this means intense U.S.-Iranian          
      negotiations will likely come before U.S. forces leave Iraq.            
                                                                              
      Al-Sadr*s return comes as his movement has secured eight Cabinet        
      portfolios in the emerging Iraqi government after winning 40 out of     
      the 159 seats controlled by the super-Shiite bloc known as the          
      National Alliance, the largest of all the Shiite factions. His          
      movement has long been evolving into a political force from its         
      initial status as one of the largest militias in Iraq. With his return  
      he aims to continue to consolidate his political power, not to launch   
      a new wave of militancy ahead of the scheduled withdrawal of the        
      remaining 50,000 U.S. troops in Iraq by Dec. 31. His return to Iraq     
      probably is not even permanent, as he most likely has not completed     
      the seminary studies needed to qualify as an ayatollah.                 
                                                                              
      Al-Sadr arrived in Iraq the same day as a high-level Iranian            
      delegation led by new Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi. The Iranian    
      delegation held meetings with much of the Iraqi political elite and     
      with top Iraqi cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. The Iranian       
      visit and al-Sadr*s return represent an Iranian move to consolidate     
      their grip over Iraq * and to remind Washington that the Iranians are   
      positioned to fill the vacuum U.S. forces will leave behind.            
                                                                              
      Contrary to popular belief, the main U.S. dilemma in the region is not  
      Iran*s attempts to develop nuclear weapons, but the fear that Iran      
      will become the most powerful conventional military force in the        
      Persian Gulf region after the U.S. withdrawal. This would allow Iran    
      to shape the behavior of the countries on the Arabian Peninsula,        
      something Washington cannot accept. To prevent this outcome,            
      Washington must either renegotiate the Status of Forces Agreement       
      (SOFA) that mandates its withdrawal from Iraq or reach some sort of     
      understanding with Iran that would allow the Islamic republic to        
      enhance its footprint in Iraq without undermining U.S. interests in     
      the region.                                                             
                                                                              
      Shortly after arriving in Iraq, the Iranian foreign minister called     
      for the removal of all foreign forces from Iraq, meaning Iran opposes   
      any changes to the current withdrawal timetable * also a key demand of  
      al-Sadr. The Sadrite movement*s well-entrenched position in the Iraqi   
      state is a key lever with which the Iranians hope to successfully       
      block a renegotiation of SOFA. This makes the second U.S. option more   
      likely * setting the stage for serious negotiations between Washington  
      and Tehran in the coming year.                                          
                                                                              
      Give us your thoughts                        Read comments on           
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      Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                              
      (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                       
</description>
    <date>2011-01-10 00:13:08</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/38322_previous-stratfor-information-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>sbraam@bztm.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>jbartko@bztm.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>39826</id>
    <title>Two more surveys
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-02-08 14:17:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/39826_two-more-surveys-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>rbaker@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Solomon.Foshko@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>john.gibbons@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>exec@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ryan.sims@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anya.alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>jenna.colley@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>wright@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kevin.garry@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sf@feldhauslaw.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kelly.tryce@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>matthew.solomon@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tim.duke@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>megan.headley@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>rob.bassetti@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>grant.perry@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>karen.hooper@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>frank.ginac@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/6/6616_Greg Hudson Retired Textron STRATFOR Professional Survey Mexico.docx</path><size>18407</size><md5></md5><sha1>b723594e76b264838a53f5bcfb36af80547f21b1</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/6/6617_Efurd Hunt Oil STRATFOR Professional Survey China and Mexico.docx</path><size>17918</size><md5></md5><sha1>4563d597a6e6efd7d7ae7012d3c82425c9bb1d22</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>43896</id>
    <title>Fwd: Trouble Book PDF - v4
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-05-17 17:43:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/43896_fwd-trouble-book-pdf-v4-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>Solomon.Foshko@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>jenna.colley@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/7/7133_Trouble_v4.pdf</path><size>1470919</size><md5></md5><sha1>3649c10eafe3a396776e7bc8f12e9ff6af3628a3</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/7/7134_Trouble_Cover_v3.pdf</path><size>218396</size><md5></md5><sha1>4f309342c580405c72bd261ebfaae380b3d057b1</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>49606</id>
    <title>Turkey, Cyprus: Rising Energy Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean
</title>
    <description>    Stratfor logo                                                             
   Turkey, Cyprus: Rising Energy Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean        
                                                                              
    September 28, 2011 | 2017 GMT                                             
    Turkey, Cyprus: Rising Energy Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean       
    AFP/Getty Images                                                          
    Turkish seismic survey vessel Piri Reis moored at Izmir port Sept. 23     
    Summary                                                                   
                                                                              
    Tensions have been increasing in the eastern Mediterranean over an        
    energy exploration project initiated by the government of Cyprus, which   
    controls the southwestern part of the island. The Turkish Republic of     
    Northern Cyprus, which is not recognized by any country other than        
    Turkey and hosts Turkish military forces in the island's northeast, has   
    protested that the island's sovereignty issues must be resolved before    
    Cyprus proceeds unilaterally with energy development. Both Cyprus and     
    Turkey see an opportunity in pushing the dispute right now, but Turkey's  
    options in the confrontation are limited, and the real challenge will     
    come if Cyprus insists on proceeding from exploration to actual energy    
    production.                                                               
                                                                              
    Analysis                                                                  
                                                                              
    A Turkish seismic survey vessel started natural gas exploration Sept. 27  
    in an area off the southern coast of Cyprus, near where the Cypriot       
    government began drilling Sept. 20. Ankara's move to begin exploration    
    follows a deal reached Sept. 21 between Turkey and the Turkish Republic   
    of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), which controls the northeastern part of the    
    island, on a continental shelf delimitation agreement giving the coastal  
    state the right to exploit seabed resources and licensing the Turkish     
    Petroleum International Co. to begin energy exploration there. Turkey     
    also has stated that it will send naval submarines and frigates to        
    protect the survey vessel, though details on this remain unclear.         
                                                                              
    Tensions over energy issues were simmering for years before the recent    
    escalation. Turkey has opposed drilling by the Cypriot government since   
    plans were initially put forward in 2007, but Ankara did not take any     
    significant action against the project until the drilling began; the      
    deployment of the seismic survey vessel and supporting the TRNC's own     
    energy projects is Turkey's way of catching up. However, the conflict     
    has less to do with energy competition than with Turkey's geopolitical    
    influence.                                                                
                                                                              
    Cyprus believes the present circumstances give it a unique opportunity    
    to initiate its energy development project. For one, the fraying ties     
    between Turkey and Israel increase the risks for Ankara of conducting     
    any sort of naval operations close to the drilling area. Turkey's ties    
    with the European Union are also at a low point. Cyprus hopes to portray  
    Ankara as a provocateur in this dispute and undermine Turkish-EU          
    relations further before assuming the rotating EU presidency in the       
    second half of 2012.                                                      
                                                                              
    Turkey also sees an opportunity in the situation. [IMG] Ankara is viewed  
    as a rising power in the region, but thus far it has had difficulty       
    substantiating its position with anything more than rhetoric. After       
    learning the limits of rhetoric in its confrontation with Israel,         
    failing to secure even an apology for the deaths of nine Turks in the     
    May 2010 flotilla incident, Turkey has looked elsewhere in the eastern    
    Mediterranean - to Cyprus - for a place to demonstrate its influence.     
    With the European Union currently distracted by the Greek debt crisis,    
    Ankara believes now is the time to pressure Cyprus, but it is not clear   
    how hard Turkey is willing to push in making its presence felt.           
                                                                              
     Energy in the Eastern Mediterranean                                      
                                                                              
    Cyprus has been divided since Turkey militarily intervened there in 1974  
    after a Greek-inspired coup attempt. The island is split between a Greek  
    Cypriot southwest, which is internationally recognized, and a Turkish     
    Cypriot northeast represented by the TRNC, which was established in 1983  
    and is only recognized by Ankara. Peace talks between the two sides       
    began in 2008, but little progress has been made. Turkey has asserted     
    that Cyprus does not have the right to exploit the island's seabed        
    resources unilaterally until the island's status is resolved, a right     
    the Greek Cypriot government, as the island's only official               
    representative at the United Nations and a member of the European Union,  
    has claimed.                                                              
                                                                              
    Turkey, Cyprus: Rising Energy Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean       
    (click here to enlarge image)                                             
                                                                              
    Despite Turkey's protests, the Greek Cypriot government went ahead with   
    the development plans, granting U.S.-based Noble Energy an exploration    
    license in 2007 in Block 12 (where drilling began Sept. 20) of Cyprus'    
    Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), a maritime boundary that gives a state     
    the right to conduct economic activities up to 200 nautical miles (370    
    kilometers) from its coast. Block 12 is the only area in the EEZ for      
    which Cyprus has granted a license, and it sits near the Leviathan and    
    Tamar offshore fields, which Israel has been developing in partnership    
    with Noble Energy since 1998.                                             
                                                                              
    Israel signed an agreement with Cyprus recognizing the Cypriot            
    government's EEZ in December 2010, a few months after the May flotilla    
    incident severely damaged relations with Turkey - likely not a            
    coincidence. (Cyprus signed similar deals with Egypt in 2003 and Lebanon  
    in 2007.) Though Israel has largely stayed out of the current dispute     
    between Turkey and Cyprus, it has been happy to see Turkey's rhetorical   
    calls for an end to drilling go unheeded and remind Turkey of the costs   
    of losing Israel as a partner.                                            
                                                                              
    Tensions had already been increasing in the eastern Mediterranean after   
    the Turkish government announced Sept. 8 that its warships would escort   
    any aid ship that sails toward the Gaza Strip to break the                
    Israeli-imposed blockade. This announcement was made shortly after the    
    leaking of a newspaper report that said the U.N. investigation on the     
    flotilla incident found the Israeli action legal. Even though it is yet   
    to be seen whether Turkey would make good on this threat (or even allow   
    another aid ship to sail toward Gaza from its ports), it nevertheless     
    indicated that Turkey was not officially ruling out a military role in    
    addressing its concerns. Now the Turkish energy minister has stated that  
    Ankara will send frigates and submarines deployed in the eastern          
    Mediterranean to escort the survey vessel conducting energy exploration   
    if needed.                                                                
                                                                              
     Europe and the Timing Question                                           
                                                                              
    Ankara expected that the financial turmoil currently engulfing Europe -   
    with Cyprus' main benefactor, Greece, at its epicenter - would make       
    Cyprus feel more vulnerable to Turkish pressure and thus more likely to   
    capitulate. In addition, Turkey's relations with the European Union are   
    at their lowest point, and Ankara is unlikely to adjust its behavior to   
    curry the favor of a bloc that appears unlikely to ever let Turkey join   
    it. Indeed, no chapter in Turkey-EU accession talks has opened since      
    July 2010, and the Turkish government already announced it would suspend  
    all ties with the European Union when Cyprus assumes the European         
    Union's rotating presidency in 2012. The division was demonstrated most   
    recently when German Chancellor Angela Merkel pointedly stated on the     
    eve of Turkish President Abdullah Gul's Sept. 20 visit that Germany did   
    not favor Turkey's joining the bloc.                                      
                                                                              
    Turkey has not formally dropped its EU bid but has mainly continued it    
    for public relations reasons as it increasingly turns its attention to    
    the Middle East, where it has a historical leadership role. The           
    long-stagnant EU application, therefore, will not make Turkey             
    particularly sensitive to Brussels' condemnation if Ankara decides to     
    escalate its actions from rhetoric and sending surveying vessels to a     
    more active role for the naval assets it claims to have deployed to       
    Cyprus.                                                                   
                                                                              
     Turkey Lacking Washington's Support                                      
                                                                              
    In pursuing the Cyprus issue, Turkey had hoped to receive the backing of  
    the United States. Washington needs help from Ankara on a number of       
    issues, from containing Iran's influence in Iraq after the U.S.           
    withdrawal to a ballistic missile defense installation aimed at           
    countering Russia. Turkey hoped that, if not outright endorsing Ankara's  
    position and calling for Cyprus to end its drilling, the United States    
    would at least turn a blind eye to Turkey's efforts. However, this has    
    turned out not to be the case. A U.S.-based company is involved in        
    Cyprus' drilling operations, and Washington is making clear in a number   
    of ways that it is supporting Cyprus in the dispute.                      
                                                                              
    Ultimately, Turkey is facing serious constraints in its effort to halt    
    Cypriot energy exploration. While STRATFOR sources have said the Turkish  
    government will tolerate exploration but draws a redline on energy        
    production from Block 12, there is little Turkey can do short of          
    military action to stop the Cypriot government. Even trying to begin its  
    own energy production as a response is not a likely option, because       
    while the Turkish Petroleum International Co. may be able to conduct      
    exploration on its own, it would need to find a foreign partner with the  
    technical capabilities to begin resource extraction. And few foreign      
    firms would be willing to take the political risk of working with Turkey  
    and the TRNC, which is not internationally recognized, in these waters.   
                                                                              
    Turkey chose to confront Cyprus on the energy issue because it believed   
    the move, if successful, could serve to prevent Ankara from gaining a     
    reputation as being unable to make good on its rhetoric or purported      
    influence. If it fails to get Cyprus to stop drilling, Turkey will look   
    even more ineffectual than it began. Ankara has raised the stakes for     
    itself in this dispute, and the question now becomes whether it backs     
    down on pressuring Cyprus to stop the drilling, or if not, how far it is  
    willing to take matters in order to prevent another embarrassment.        
                                                                              
    Give us your thoughts                          Read comments on           
    on this report                                 other reports              
                                                                              
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    Not For Publication                                                       
    Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                                
    (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
</description>
    <date>2011-09-29 00:37:49</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-01 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/49606_turkey-cyprus-rising-energy-tensions-in-the-eastern.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>allstratfor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>noreply@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:stratforaustin@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>49613</id>
    <title>Labor Day Review of Where We Are
</title>
    <description>   THIS IS FOR INTERNAL STRATFOR USE ONLY. DO NOT SHARE THIS DOCUMENT OR
   DISCUSS IT OUTSIDE OF STRATFOR.

    

    

    

   I hope you've all had a great Labor Day Weekend. This Labor Day marks a
   turning point in Stratfor's history, and I wanted to share my thoughts
   with you and some plans. It used to be, not so long ago, that we were so
   small that information flowed to all hands by itself.  It is hard for me
   to recognize sometimes that this is no longer true, so I will provide an
   extensive review of where we are and what is coming.  Some of this will be
   old hat to some of you; some of this will be new.  This is an attempt to
   start getting everyone on the same page. 

    

   Historically, Stratfor was unique in a number of ways. First, we accepted
   no advertising. Second, we charged for our subscriptions. Finally, we were
   revenue driven. We build the company from our revenues.  This kept us
   independent, it kept us free to experiment-and at times fail, it kept us
   tight. We were reaching a point where we our revenues did not keep up with
   our needs and market opportunities.

    

   Shea Morenz provided us with two opportunities.  First, he made an
   investment in Stratfor designed to give us the capital needed to build our
   staff and our marketing.  Second, he proposed a new venture, StratCap,
   which would allow us to utilize the intelligence we were gathering about
   the world in a new but related venue-an investment fund. Where we had
   previously advised other hedge funds. We would now have our own, itself
   fully funded by Shea.  Shea invested over $2 million in Stratfor and more
   in StratCap. In return he took a seat on Stratfor's board and a minority
   position in Stratfor, whose control remains in Don's and my hands.  It was
   a good deal for Stratfor, a good deal for StratCap, and since the deal
   closed officially on August 1, we now have the task of doing what we all
   want-building Stratfor and StratCap.

    

   Our cash position is not spectacular by any means, but we have the
   resources to build the kind of company we want, when that investment is
   combined with our revenues.  With cash under control we need to address
   the next problem-people. We all are doing more than our share to keep
   things going.  In some ways that good but it can be overdone, and we are
   overdoing it throughout the company.  Our job now is to expand the team. 
   Money is one element of that, but relieving the pressure we are under in a
   way increases the pressure, because we have to recruit and train new
   people. So it gets harder before it gets easier, and that's the point we
   are at.

    

   Let's divide our departments into two groups.  There are those departments
   that must train their own people, particularly in intelligence beyond the
   normal training needed by new employees.  We do that because no one thinks
   of the world like Stratfor, and that means that we can't hire people from
   other organizations, or at least not without a major training programming,
   which in our experience lasts up to two years.  Then there are departments
   that don't have this burden and that can hire people readily from other
   organizations.  Both groups of departments must grow and train, but the
   burden of training is much heavier in the Intelligence departments that
   train their staff from the bottom up than on other departments.  It is
   important for everyone to understand this distinction.  It is not that
   people in Intelligence are more important or more valuable than those in
   other departments.  It just means they face different problems in growing
   and that if they don't grow, other things can't happen.

    

   Now let's consider the tasks ahead.  First and foremost-and always first
   and foremost-we must be the world's leading private intelligence
   organization (and one of the finest intelligence organizations, period)
   and we must sell our intelligence through publishing.  Our current staff
   has done an outstanding job, but they are thin and sometimes we are weak. 
   We must do better in economics, and we must make certain that no AOR
   depends on only one person. There are lots of things that are needed. 

    

   Second, we are committed to supporting StratCap, a private fund that will
   begin operations some time this coming spring. What StratCap will do is
   use our Stratfor's intelligence and analysis to trade in a range of
   geopolitical instruments, particularly government bonds, currency and the
   like in the world's emerging markets.  Shea Morenz initiated this idea and
   leads it.  At the root of StratCap is a simple idea: Stratfor should put
   its money where its mouth is.  It does not conflict with Stratfor, but is
   an extension of it.

    

   Do not think of StratCap as an outside organization.  It will be integral
   to Stratfor, in the sense that much of the intelligence we are developing
   is useful to Stratcap as well as Stratfor.  The organizational and legal
   distinctions are real and important, but StratCap is linked to Stratfor
   intellectually and contractually.  It will be useful to you if, for the
   sake of convenience, you think of it as another aspect of Stratfor and
   Shea as another executive in Stratfor. 

    

   Let me also add that it is our commitment that all our team will benefit
   if StratCap is successful through some mechanism to be defined. This isn't
   an attempt to get you to work harder for the same money.  But that
   discussion must wait until the legal and administrative relationships of
   StratCap and its relation to Stratfor are worked out and reviewed by
   something called "compliance officers," people who make certain that we do
   not violate any regulations. 

    

   From that point of view, StratCap is something under construction.  You
   can see Shea Morenz hammering away building it in the corner office he
   took from Darryl. In the world of StratCap, corner offices are marketing
   tools.  This points to the fact that StratCap will be building its own
   staff and they come from a different world from Stratfor with a different
   culture.  That said, we have a great deal to learn from StratCap to
   strengthen Stratfor's understanding of economics and it has much to learn
   from us.  We are already working on mock portfolios and trades, testing
   our skills.  Kendra, Korena, Melissa, Jen, Peter, Meredith and myself are
   all involved in this along with Shea and Alfredo, a trader that makes us
   easy to understand compared to him. It's going pretty well in fact, but
   supporting StratCap will be a cultural and intellectual challenge.  It's
   important now to recognize that it is already here, growing and we will
   accommodate to it and it to us.

    

   I want to emphasize is that there is neither a legal, intellectual nor
   moral tension between Stratfor and StratCap.  We will continue to publish
   what we think is true.  StratCap is interested in our broad ideas but
   mostly in the obscure nuggets picked up by intelligence that are usually
   of little interest to our general readers.  My pledge to you and our
   readers is that our publication will remain untouched by StratCap-because
   they are merely different sides of the same coin, intelligence.

    

   We have also been asked to help the United States Marine Corps and other
   government intelligence organizations to teach them how Stratfor does what
   it does, and train them in becoming government Stratfors. We are beginning
   this project by preparing a three-year forecast for the Commandant of the
   Corps.  This is a double honor for us.  First, the professional
   intelligence community is acknowledging us as being the gold standard of
   intelligence.  Second, we are being asked to use our honest and unhedged
   views to support what is for Stratfor-an American company-its homeland. 
   Again, as with StratCap, there is no tension. We will tell the U.S.
   government precisely what we tell our readers and we think ourselves.  Our
   first lesson to the government is that intelligence organizations exist to
   make decision makers uncomfortable, not to make them feel better about
   their decisions. I didn't come this far to compromise on that. 

    

   Add to this that the fact that Turkish Chamber of Commerce (not its name
   but close enough; its name is TUSIAD) asked us to preside over their 40th
   anniversary celebration, and that the Turkish Foreign Minister and Energy
   Minister will speak at the event, and you can see both our global
   recognition and our commitment to speak the same words to every country.
   We can serve the world from the same platform.

    

   So think about it.  We have three triumphs.  First, our publication is now
   read by almost 300,000 people (counting our corporate accounts).  We are a
   major force around the world.  Second, Shea-a guy who has played with the
   big boys at Goldman Sachs, asked us to play in the majors with him. 
   Third, the USMC has asked for our help, and with them others in the
   defense community.  These are three validations of us that are precious to
   me.

    

   Obviously, there is no way in the world that we can do all these
   things-plus the endless little projects that we must do all the time-with
   the staff we have.  And given that we take two years to train new
   analysts, and all of this is on us now-we have an urgent problem.  We
   can't punt opportunities at hand and continue at our current size. Nor can
   we easily expand.  So we will therefore expand with difficulty.  There is
   no choice.  Our Analyst Development Program is the means where we train
   people and find new analysts as well as find some staff for publishing
   (watch officers, monitors, operations center and writers all under Jenna
   Colley). We will have the largest group of ADPs ever this fall, starting
   next week.  About 13 people at last count will be joining us.  This is a
   huge percentage of the number of analysts on staff. Ideally all will work
   out well and our crisis will be over.  That's unlikely but our crisis will
   be mitigated by January 1. Doing this will put a huge burden on
   Intelligence, who must do their work and also train these people, but
   there is no choice.  This is the year when we break out.  I promise to
   work side by side with the team in training and growing he organization. 
   I also promise that if we succeed, we will become one of the most
   significant and prestigious foreign policy publications in the world-and
   those that made it happen will be known.  I know there are questions about
   by-lines. You know my hesitation, but we will figure out together someway
   to make sure that the glory is shared.

    

   Intelligence is divided into three parts.  There is Strategic Intelligence
   (under Rodger assisted by Reva) that is organized geographically.  There
   is Tactical Intelligence (under Stick, assisted by Nate Hughes) that is
   organized thematically-organized crime, cyber-warfare, military,
   terrorism, security, financial flows, supply chain and so on.  There is
   then intelligence gathering, under Meredith, assisted by Jen Richmond that
   is building sources from around the world.  All of them must grow
   dramatically.  The first two will grow mostly out of the ADP pool. The
   latter will be done by extensive work in the field.  But it is the Writers
   Group that is making the most impressive evolution.  Under Jenna (and Tim
   French and Maverick) it has moved into the heart of intelligence, writing
   as well as editing.  Everyone should watch this team. They are pioneering
   things the world hasn't seen yet. Along with Watch Officers, monitors and
   the operations center, this unit is translating intelligence into product
   with increasing effectiveness.  It is now organizationally mature and
   ready to both grow and sustain the growth of Intelligence.

    

   This growth will put a tremendous strain on other departments. Leticia has
   done a tremendous job in Human Resources, but the job has grown much
   greater than she can possibly manage.  Just the process of getting visas
   for new ADPs is overwhelming, and at least half of these come from other
   countries.  We have selected an HR consulting firm to support her in the
   coming months and other solutions will be found to sustain this. HR will
   become more effective in the next months. In addition, we are retaining a
   law firm to create a policy for Stratfor on Foreign Corrupt Practices
   Act.  I don't plan to do the perp walk and I don't want anyone here doing
   it either.  We need some clear guidelines on the law and are getting them,
   particularly as we ramp our intelligence capability. Similarly finance has
   kept us all going and similarly it has to expand, although it is a shade
   less pressured than HR is.

    

   IT faces a huge challenge.  Traditional IT organizations focus on the
   development of new capabilities for a company and sustaining complex
   systems. At Stratfor, the focus must also be on sustaining basic systems
   like phones, email, configuring and fixing laptops and cell phones and so
   on-the basic tools that make our work possible and which are a particular
   challenge in a global company operating 24-7.  That gives our IT
   department a different shape and tempo than exists in other companies.
   With this class of ADPs, 24-7 will become very real.  IT is under pressure
   to maintain its focus on improving the web site and corporate systems but
   has a special and intense mission of supporting a growing, global company
   at the ground level, and the pressure is never going to be greater than
   now with all the new people coming on board in all departments. Creating
   an IT department that fits our peculiar needs will be Frank's challenge.

    

   I want to also point to two departments that are performing extremely
   well.  Customer Service at Stratfor is among the best in the business.  We
   daily get emails praising their work. John Gibbons has done an amazing job
   keeping this going.  More subscribers mean more customer service of
   course.

    

   Also to be mentioned is he on-line marketing team who has just done
   something very impressive. There is usually a slump in subscriptions after
   a Red Alert, and there was one, but in a matter of weeks they pitched in
   and turned it around with some strange and wonderful campaigns.  They have
   broken their forecast in spite of a pretty quiet world.  Its amazing the
   kind of ads that work!

    

   Let's turn to marketing and sales and the future.  Our readership is now
   about 5 percent of the Economist when we exclude corporate (not sure why
   we exclude corporate but that's what we do).  That means that we have
   probably saturated a good part of the early adopters market-the early
   adopters who love us and have built us-and put up with our weaknesses.
   It's kind of like people who supported Apple in its dark days, putting up
   with promising but not yet mature computers.  If you haven't read,
   "Crossing the Chasm," a rare business book that is actually helpful,
   please take a look at it.  It will explain much of what we are trying to
   achieve in marketing.

    

   We have no choice but to grow.  If we stay this size someone larger, with
   deep pockets will notice the market we have created and come in after us. 
   We won't be able to compete.  The only protection is market share, to be
   so dominant a force in the market that no one challenges us and our own
   deep pockets.  For this we must grow revenue and that means readership. 
   The place we must grow is in the mainstream.  I don't mean by mainstream
   CNN. I mean readers who are interested in what we have, but aren't
   fanatics, groupies and wannabes.  These people have higher standards in
   production values, and less forgiveness for mistakes. They don't buy the
   mystique.  They buy the publication. That's where most of our customers
   are and where we have to go.

    

   Obviously this is one of the reasons we need more people.  It is also the
   reason we must deliver in new ways.  Grant Perry and his team are looking
   at ways to create a unique, Stratfor video culture. I see this myself as
   consisting of much longer and serious conversations among analysts
   moderated by an anchor, documentaries, briefings. Perhaps our Sitreps
   should all be delivered via video and audio (there is I think huge demand
   for audio products in cars, or so many people tell me).  All of this will
   evolve in unexpected directions under Grant, Colin, Brian, Andrew and
   others who will join them. This is part of our own evolution into the
   mainstream, on our own terms, with our own voice. What you see above, by
   the way, are simply my own ideas, not fully thought out.  Whatever Grant
   and his team produce will be uniquely Stratfor.

    

   Other than that we shall see.  What markets we will enter, and how we
   enter them is not yet known. We do know that the current Stratfor product,
   however enhanced, will be our only offering.  We will not be developing
   new products for markets. 

    

   We have hired a consultant, Mark Stacey, who will guide this process.  We
   will also be bringing in a consulting firm to do survey research and
   interviews to teach us more about our current readers, readers who won't
   buy us, and readers who would buy us if they had heard of us.  Our choice
   was between hiring staff to give us a plan or hiring consultants to give
   us a plan and then hiring permanent staff to execute it.  The latter is
   the safest-we avoid a staff without the skill to do what we need whom
   instead craft a plan to do what they already know.  In addition to this
   initiative, we are participating in the University of Texas Business
   School program where a team of graduate students will essentially parallel
   the work of our outside consultants, giving us a double check on the
   data. 

    

   The goal here is to have a marketing and sales plan in place for execution
   on January 1.  From where I sit, the biggest challenge we have is that too
   many people have never heard of us.  At a meeting I can encounter someone
   who has subscribed for years and next to him is a person in the same
   industry that has never heard of us.  It is difficult selling to people
   who have never heard of us.  So our challenge-before trying to sell to
   them-is to increase awareness of who we are.  This is called branding and
   it's different from selling.  It is the precursor.  We will start with
   branding in January. That means there will be marketing people around
   asking many questions in the coming months, frequently the same ones.
   Please work with all of them.  In the end, we will have a plan with a high
   likelihood of success.

    

   Parallel to all of this, the executives (without Don, Steve Feldhaus or
   myself-the board members) are going through a planning process of their
   own, coordinated by Frank Ginac.  Not being on it (and not wanting to be
   informed of what is going on as there should be yet another set of eyes on
   things other than mine) I can't tell you what they are doing.  However,
   the deal we have on this is that as CEO, I will proceed with implementing
   my own plans that I've outlined here, and will consider their proposals
   when I see them. If the decision point is past when they make their
   recommendation on a subject, the recommendation will not be considered. 
   If they come in with recommendations before decision points, their
   recommendations will be taken very seriously.  This allows the company to
   move forward and an alternative planning model to be brought on line when
   it is ready.

    

   The company has become too large and complex for any one person to know
   what is going on.  I am moving (with difficulty) from the role of an early
   entrepreneur, knowing everything going on and getting involved in it, to
   the CEO of a company at the inflexion point.   The inflexion point is the
   point all companies dream of and few achieve-when they start really taking
   off.  This is a great point and a dangerous one.  Unless the company
   changes the way it does things, inflexion aborts.  I am trying to change
   what I do.

    

   There are some things that have to remain my responsibility.  Building
   Intelligence and publishing and particularly training new staff are things
   that I should oversee.  Building the intelligence capabilities of the
   company along with Meredith is also my responsibility.  Creating new
   models to support Stratcap and helping to train Stratcap in the
   capabilities of Stratfor is mine. Overseeing our training of the Marine
   Corps is something I want to do.  Kendra will be my deputy for this, but
   this leaves a large load on me.

    

   Along with this, for better or worse, I am the public face of Stratfor. 
   My speeches and travels build the brand, create intelligence
   opportunities, and give me a clearer vision of how the world works.  I
   will be doing a lot of traveling to do these things, and I will combine
   them with the Geopolitical Journeys concept that seems to have hit a
   nerve.  During my travels I will be doing articles, videos and writing a
   book based on those journeys, on the world's borderlands.  Between that
   and making contacts for Stratfor and StratCap, I will be busy.

    

   Along with that load is going to be setting the broad direction of the
   company.  Through long and sometimes painful experience I have learned
   that ultimate responsibility can be delegated but not abandoned.  It's an
   old military principle that applies here. I have a vision for Stratfor and
   while I will delegate, I will not turn over responsibility because I
   can't.

    

   That means that we will need an evolving management structure.  I've asked
   Don who is formally President of Stratfor to join Darryl in both the day
   to day management of the company and in what we still call "the business
   side."  One day we will simply be one company, but right now we are still
   two sides of one company.  Don and Darryl will now manage that side,
   implementing our plans there.  I will not disappear, but become
   intermittent on daily management but deeply focused on intelligence.

    

   One of the other things I must do is prepare a succession plan.  In some
   parts that are well developed, I already have that plan.  In other parts,
   we have to build an organization to have a succession plan.  But it is my
   intention that Stratfor survive me (no, I'm not feeling poorly and can
   still kick your ass).  I want to build this into the world's finest
   intelligence service, private and free to speak its mind.  I see this as
   the most lasting contribution I can make, and I am serious about making
   sure Stratfor goes on.

    

   We are all at the inflexion point where the level of effort temporarily
   soars until new resources are brought on line.  They couldn't have been
   staged in earlier because there weren't resources available.  But now they
   can't wait, because the moment will pass and perhaps never return.  For
   everything there is a "now."  This is now.

    

   I ask only one specific thing of all of you. If you don't understanding
   anything here; if you want to learn more; if something worries you and
   your boss can't clear it up, come directly to me. I will be available
   until the last week of September when I go with others to Turkey.  Please,
   please, please, do not engage in a round of paranoia or speculation based
   on lack of data.  Just set a time to see me and let's discuss it. 
   StratFantasy (a new term) is I really believe the greatest danger to
   success that we have face.

    

   This is a long review, but many have said they'd like to know where we are
   and what we are doing.  This is about as comprehensive as I can get. There
   will be more such reports.  There are no short versions about where we are
   and what we are doing.

    

    

   OH YES-THIS IS FOR INTERNAL STRATFOR USE ONLY. DO NOT SHARE THIS DOCUMENT
   OR DISCUSS IT OUTSIDE OF STRATFOR.

    

   --

   George Friedman

   Founder and CEO

   STRATFOR

   221 West 6th Street

   Suite 400

   Austin, Texas 78701

    

   Phone: 512-744-4319

   Fax: 512-744-4334

    
</description>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>51091</id>
    <title>Anonymous vs. Zetas Amid Mexico's Cartel Violence
</title>
    <description>    Stratfor logo                                                             
   Anonymous vs. Zetas Amid Mexico's Cartel Violence                          
                                                                              
    November 2, 2011                                                          
                                                                              
    Readers Comment on STRATFOR Reports                                       
                                                                              
    By Scott Stewart                                                          
                                                                              
    The online activist collective Anonymous posted a message on the          
    Internet on Oct. 31 saying it would continue its campaign against         
    Mexican criminal cartels and their government supporters despite the      
    risks.                                                                    
                                                                              
    The message urged inexperienced activists, who might not be practicing    
    proper online security measures, to abstain from participating. It also   
    urged individuals associated with Anonymous in Mexico not to conduct      
    physical pamphlet drops, participate in protests, wear or purchase Guy    
    Fawkes masks, or use Guy Fawkes imagery in their Internet or              
    physical-world activities. Guy Fawkes was a British Roman Catholic        
    conspirator involved in a plot to bomb the British Parliament on Nov. 5,  
    1605. The British celebrate the plot's failure as Guy Fawkes Day each     
    Nov. 5. In modern times, the day has come to have special meaning for     
    anarchists. Since 2006, the style of the Guy Fawkes mask used in the      
    movie "V for Vendetta" has become something of an anarchist icon in the   
    United Kingdom and elsewhere.                                             
                                                                              
    Related Video                                                             
      * [IMG] Dispatch: Anonymous' Online Tactics Against Mexican Cartels     
                                                                              
    It was no coincidence, then, that in an Oct. 6 video Anonymous activists  
    set Nov. 5 as the deadline for Los Zetas to release an Anonymous          
    associate allegedly kidnapped in Veracruz. The associate reportedly was   
    abducted during an Anonymous leaflet campaign called "Operation           
    Paperstorm."                                                              
                                                                              
    The Oct. 31 message acknowledged that the operation against Los Zetas,    
    dubbed "Operation Cartel," would be dangerous. It noted that some         
    members of the collective would form a group of trusted associates to     
    participate in a special task force to execute the operation. It asked    
    supporters to pass information pertaining to drug trafficking to the      
    Operation Cartel task force for publication on the Internet via a         
    software tool developed by Anonymous that permits the anonymous passing   
    of information.                                                           
                                                                              
    When discussing Anonymous, it is important to remember that Anonymous is  
    not a hierarchical organization, but rather a collective of activists.    
    Individuals who choose to associate themselves with the collective        
    frequently disagree over issues addressed by the collective and are free  
    to choose which actions to support and/or participate in.                 
                                                                              
    With Nov. 5 approaching, and at least some elements of Anonymous not      
    backing down on their threats to Los Zetas, we thought it would be        
    useful to provide some context to the present conflict between Anonymous  
    and Los Zetas and to address some of its potential implications.          
                                                                              
     Context                                                                  
                                                                              
    The Mexican port city of Veracruz has been the epicenter of this event.   
    Veracruz has been a busy place over the past few months in terms of       
    Mexico's cartel wars. The port serves as a critical transportation hub    
    for Los Zetas narcotics smuggling. Because of this, STRATFOR has          
    identified Veracruz as a bellwether for determining Los Zetas'            
    trajectory in the coming months.                                          
                                                                              
    In a major recent development in Veracruz, the Sinaloa cartel began an    
    offensive into the Zetas stronghold using the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva     
    Generacion (CJNG), which, under the name "Matazetas" (Spanish for "Zeta   
    killers"), conducted high-profile body dumps of more than 50 alleged      
    low-level Zetas operatives on Sept. 20 and Sept. 22. On Oct. 25, Mexican  
    marines arrested Carlos Arturo Pitalua-Carillo, also known as "El Bam     
    Bam," who was the Zetas' plaza boss in Veracruz. The Zetas in Veracruz    
    thus are feeling pressure from both the Mexican government and the CJNG.  
                                                                              
    The Anonymous Internet collective entered this dynamic in August with     
    its activities in Veracruz. It is common knowledge that members of        
    local, state and federal governments in Mexico support various cartel     
    groups. In the state of Veracruz, it is generally believed that some      
    members of the state government support Los Zetas, the dominant cartel    
    there. In response to this corruption, some who have associated           
    themselves with Anonymous launched Operation Paperstorm. These activists  
    distributed leaflets throughout Veracruz denouncing the state government  
    for supporting Los Zetas. They conducted leaflet distributions Aug. 13,   
    Aug. 20 and Aug. 29. They also released videos on the Internet on Aug.    
    26 and Aug. 29 condemning the Veracruz state government.                  
                                                                              
    Activities outside Veracruz also played a part in setting the stage. On   
    Sept. 13, the bodies of two people who had been tortured and killed were  
    hung from a pedestrian overpass in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state. Signs  
    left with the bodies said Los Zetas had killed the pair because they had  
    posted information pertaining to the Zetas on blogs that specialize in    
    reporting on the Mexican cartels. On Sept. 26, the decapitated body of    
    Marisol Macias Castaneda was found in a park in Nuevo Laredo. Macias,     
    who worked for a local newspaper, allegedly posted on cartel blogs using  
    the nickname "Laredo Girl." A message found with her body said the Zetas  
    killed her due to her online activities.                                  
                                                                              
    Following the death of Laredo Girl, Anonymous claimed responsibility for  
    a distributed denial of service attack against the official website of    
    the state of Veracruz. Although her murder occurred outside of the        
    state, Anonymous said its attack on the Veracruz website was in response  
    to Laredo Girl's death. This indicates that activists understand that     
    Los Zetas are active in both areas and suggests that Veracruz             
    state-based activists are driving the Anonymous campaign against Los      
    Zetas.                                                                    
                                                                              
    Significantly, some individuals associated with Anonymous already were    
    unhappy with the state of Veracruz over its decision to prosecute two     
    individuals who had posted kidnapping reports on Twitter on Aug. 25 that  
    proved false. According to the reports, a group of children had been      
    abducted from a Veracruz school. The inaccurate reports allegedly caused  
    some two dozen traffic accidents as terrified parents rushed to the       
    school to check on their children. The so-called Twitter terrorists       
    initially were charged with offenses that could have carried a 30-year    
    sentence. Some associated with Anonymous, which has absolute freedom of   
    speech on the Internet as one of its foundational principles, took        
    umbrage at the prospect of such stiff penalties - especially given the    
    stark contrast with the impunity enjoyed by many cartel figures in        
    Mexico.                                                                   
                                                                              
    STRATFOR began to focus on the story following the Oct. 6 release of the  
    video in which Anonymous activists threatened to release information      
    about individuals cooperating with Los Zetas if the Zetas did not         
    release the Anonymous activist kidnapped during Operation Paperstorm. In  
    light of the approaching Nov. 5 deadline, we published an analysis of     
    the topic on Oct. 28; the topic subsequently received a great deal of     
    media coverage.                                                           
                                                                              
    This publicity has generated a very interesting response from Anonymous   
    that emphasizes that it is a collective, not an organization. Some        
    Anonymous activists began to back off the issue, erasing online user      
    accounts formerly associated with the campaign, suggesting the operation  
    against Los Zetas had been a hoax and claiming that no activist had been  
    kidnapped. Other activists suggested that the campaign was dangerous,     
    ill-advised and should be suspended. Still other activists became more    
    strident and determined in their posts, urging that the campaign          
    continue. As noted, Anonymous' collective nature means activists can      
    select the actions they participate in, including Operation Cartel. It    
    would only take one dedicated individual to continue the operation.       
                                                                              
    The will to continue was manifested Oct. 29 with the hacking of the       
    personal website of Gustavo Rosario Torres, the former attorney general   
    of the Mexican state of Tabasco. The site was defaced with a message      
    from Anonymous Mexico stating that Rosario is a Zeta. Rosario has long    
    been accused in the Mexican and international media of protecting Los     
    Zetas, and videos long have circulated on YouTube making the same         
    charge. The hacking of his website thus did not provide any startling     
    revelation; Anonymous will have to uncover and publish original and       
    timely information if it hopes to do much damage to Los Zetas.            
                                                                              
    The determination by some activists to continue the operation against     
    Los Zetas also was reflected in the tone of the Oct. 31 message. Some     
    activists associated with Anonymous clearly feel compelled to continue    
    with the campaign over what they have characterized as an outpouring of   
    public support in the wake of the media coverage. According to their      
    Oct. 31 video statement:                                                  
                                                                              
      "We received many expressions of support and solidarity as well as the  
      voices of people crying for help. We must remember that we are on the   
      side of the people, and we cannot let down the people, especially in    
      critical moments like the one they currently live in."                  
                                                                              
    We therefore anticipate that some Anonymous activists will continue the   
    campaign. We also believe that Los Zetas will respond.                    
                                                                              
     Blowback                                                                 
                                                                              
    Mexico's various cartels long have used the Internet to trumpet their     
    triumphs on the battlefield and to taunt and even degrade their enemies.  
    The cartels have posted videos of the torture, execution and desecration  
    of the corpses of rivals. They also frequently monitor narcoblogs and     
    sometimes even post on them. As demonstrated by the September blogger     
    killings in Nuevo Laredo, Los Zetas appear to possess at least some       
    rudimentary capability to trace online activity to people in the          
    physical world. They are known to employ their own team of dedicated      
    cyber experts and to have sources within the Mexican government.          
                                                                              
    In addition to technical intelligence, the Zetas can use old-fashioned    
    human intelligence to track down their online enemies. People sometimes   
    discuss their online identities with family and friends, and such         
    information can be overheard and passed to Los Zetas in return for        
    money. This danger was recognized in the Oct. 31 video from Anonymous     
    that urges participants in their campaign not to discuss their            
    activities with anyone.                                                   
                                                                              
    In past Anonymous actions, like the December 2010 attack against PayPal   
    after the WikiLeaks scandal broke, the U.S. and British governments       
    arrested numerous individuals associated with Anonymous who allegedly     
    participated in the attacks. In June 2011, Turkey arrested dozens of      
    activists associated with Anonymous actions conducted against the         
    Turkish government in response to its plan to establish a national        
    Internet-filtering system. This indicates that some activists associated  
    with Anonymous are not nearly as anonymous as they would like to be.      
    Every action on the Internet leaves some sort of trail, making it very    
    difficult to be truly anonymous.                                          
                                                                              
    Like other Mexican cartels, Los Zetas do not take affronts lightly. Even  
    if Anonymous cannot provide information that damages Los Zetas smuggling  
    operations, the very fact that the collective has decided publicly to     
    challenge Los Zetas will result in some sort of response. The big         
    question is whether the Zetas possess the capability to trace the         
    organizers of the Anonymous action?                                       
                                                                              
    One challenge with tracking an entity such as Anonymous is that it is     
    intentionally amorphous. It is also as transnational as the Internet,     
    and it would be unsurprising if many of those chosen to participate in    
    the operation against Los Zetas are located in the United Sates, Europe   
    and other areas that are outside the Zetas' immediate reach.              
                                                                              
    The amorphous nature of Anonymous can also cut the other way, however.    
    If Los Zetas abduct and execute random patrons at an Internet cafe,       
    behead them and place Guy Fawkes masks on their heads, it will be very    
    difficult to prove that they were not associated with Anonymous. Los      
    Zetas also could execute random people and claim they had provided        
    Anonymous with information in order to intimidate people from actually    
    cooperating with Anonymous. As Anonymous noted in its Oct. 31 video,      
    this is dangerous business indeed.                                        
                                                                              
     The Big Picture                                                          
                                                                              
    How the Mexican public reacts to the Anonymous operation must be          
    watched. The criminal cartels and their violence have deeply affected     
    many people in Mexico's middle and upper classes. STRATFOR talks to many  
    people in Mexico who fear that they or a family member will be            
    kidnapped. In many communities, especially places like Ciudad Juarez,     
    Torreon, Monterrey and Veracruz, businessmen find themselves in a         
    terrible bind. They face ever-increasing extortion demands from the       
    cartels while their business revenues dwindle because the violence        
    associated with those same cartels has frightened people into not going   
    out. This is forcing many small businesses to close. It also is creating  
    a great deal of frustration and resentment.                               
                                                                              
    At the same time, Mexico has become one of the most dangerous countries   
    in the world for journalists, and many media organizations practice       
    heavy self-censorship to protect themselves. In the wake of the           
    September blogger killings, some of the narcoblogs, like Blog del Narco,  
    have exhibited strong signs of self-censorship inspired by fear. As a     
    result, many Mexicans believe the mainstream media are not of any real    
    assistance in the face of cartel violence.                                
                                                                              
    Mexican citizens also are frustrated with their government, which, as     
    noted, is well-known for corruption. This sentiment is feeding            
    Anonymous' original campaign in Veracruz. This frustration even has led   
    some people to begin discussing the creation of vigilante groups to       
    fight the cartels - though this has been attempted before in Mexico. As   
    we saw in the case of La Familia Michoacana, which began as such a        
    vigilante group, vigilantism frequently does not end well.                
                                                                              
    This is where Anonymous may fit in. With Mexican citizens unable to rely  
    on their government, the media or even armed vigilante groups for         
    assistance, they may embrace Anonymous, coming to view its form of        
    cybervigilantism as an outlet for their frustration. If Anonymous is      
    perceived as a safe way to pass information pertaining to cartel          
    activities, we may see people from all over the country begin to share    
    intelligence. Such human intelligence could very well prove to be far     
    more damaging to the cartels than any information Anonymous activists     
    can dredge up electronically. As this operation is becoming more widely   
    publicized, the pool of people outside Mexico who might wish to           
    participate will likely grow. The number of people inside Mexico who      
    wish to provide information might grow as well.                           
                                                                              
    Anonymous has taken on many powerful entities in the past, such as major  
    transnational corporations and governments. But the repercussions from    
    participating in such operations were never as grave for online           
    activists as they are in this case. Being identified and detained by      
    Scotland Yard or the FBI is a far different situation than being          
    identified and detained by Los Zetas.                                     
                                                                              
    Give us your thoughts                          Read comments on           
    on this report                                 other reports              
                                                                              
    For Publication                                Reader Comments            
                                                                              
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    Reprinting or republication of this report on websites is authorized by   
    prominently displaying the following sentence at the beginning or end of  
    the report, including the hyperlink to STRATFOR:                          
                                                                              
    "This report is republished with permission of STRATFOR"                  
    Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                                
    (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
</description>
    <date>2011-11-03 15:27:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/51091_anonymous-vs-zetas-amid-mexico-s-cartel-violence-.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>52058</id>
    <title>Spain's Economic Outlook After Elections
</title>
    <description>    Stratfor logo                                                             
   Spain's Economic Outlook After Elections                                   
                                                                              
    November 23, 2011 | 1151 GMT                                              
    Spain's Economic Outlook After Elections                                  
    Jasper Juinen/Getty Images                                                
    Spanish Prime Minister-elect Mariano Rajoy in Madrid on Nov. 20           
    Summary                                                                   
                                                                              
    Outgoing Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero*s decision   
    to call for early general elections, held Nov. 20, allowed Spain to have  
    a smooth political transition. While the arrival of a new government in   
    Spain will be quieter than in other members of the eurozone, such as      
    Italy and Greece, the new government of Mariano Rajoy has immediate       
    challenges - among them high private debt, a fragile banking system and   
    growing unemployment - that threaten the new administration.              
                                                                              
    Analysis                                                                  
                                                                              
    On Nov. 20, the Popular Party won a landslide victory in Spain*s general  
    elections. Outgoing Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero   
    called for the elections in April, seeking to put an early end to a       
    government that had failed to find answers to the economic crisis.        
    Zapatero wanted a new administration - preferably run by his Socialist    
    Workers* Party (PSOE) - to assume control. Instead, the Popular Party,    
    led by Mariano Rajoy, obtained 186 seats in the 350-seat Spanish          
    parliament, giving the new administration's party an absolute majority.   
    The "indignants* protest movement's influence seemed limited, although    
    it possibly hurt the PSOE, led by Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba. While the      
    PSOE secured only 110 seats in its worst performance in more than 30      
    years, other minor, anti-austerity left-wing parties performed better     
    than was expected (the United Left, for example, won 11 seats).           
                                                                              
    Although the PSOE failed to stay in power, Spain managed a smooth         
    electoral transition * clearly distinguishing itself from Italy and       
    Greece, the two major European countries at the center of the             
    Continent's economic crisis. In Italy, the transition was a traumatic     
    process during which former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi brought      
    weeks of uncertainty to his country (and to the international markets).   
    The outcome of this crisis was a techocratic government that now must     
    gain the support of a fragmented and contentious opposition. The          
    situation was perhaps more tense in Greece, where former Prime Minister   
    George Papandreou threatened to call for a referendum on EU austerity     
    measures before he resigned and handed power to a caretaker government.   
                                                                              
    Rajoy will not have to face elections in the near term, thanks to the     
    laws of the Spanish political system. The next general elections, as      
    well as most of the autonomous parliaments* elections, do not need to be  
    held for four years. But despite this seamless political transition,      
    Spain has serious economic troubles that will threaten the                
    sustainability of the new administration.                                 
                                                                              
     Spain's Short-Term Economic Problems                                     
                                                                              
    One of the main problems that Spain faces is its budget deficit, which    
    In 2010 stood at 9.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), the         
    third-highest figure among eurozone countries (Greece and Portugal are    
    at 10.6 percent and 9.8 percent, respectively). According to Eurostat,    
    Spain*s total general government debt reached nearly 642 million euros    
    ($867 million) in 2010. But borrowing is increasingly expensive; in       
    November, the yield for the Spanish 10-year bond hit 6.98 percent, the    
    highest level since Spain joined the eurozone. With such a large budget   
    deficit, Spain must regularly convince markets that it is in control of   
    the situation - otherwise Madrid faces immediate and severe financing     
    problems.                                                                 
                                                                              
    In an attempt to win back market confidence, the PSOE and the Popular     
    Party agreed in August to reform the country's constitution to include    
    the concept of "budgetary stability,* which will entail a deficit cap.    
    However, the text does not specify the size of the cap, which must be     
    set by either the European Union or, in its absence, the Spanish          
    parliament. The deficit limit could also be broken during a recession or  
    a national crisis. When it comes into force in 2020, the new law will     
    affect all levels of Spanish administration, including the regional       
    governments that run health care and education.                           
                                                                              
    The debt-to-GDP ratio is also a cause for concern in Spain. According to  
    Eurostat, Spain's debt represented 36.2 percent of its GDP in 2007,       
    moved to 63.45 percent of GDP in 2010 and reached an estimated 70.25      
    percent ratio in 2011. Yet the main problem in Spain is private, not      
    public, debt. Currently, private debt stands at 212 percent of GDP.       
                                                                              
    At the same time, both the real estate crisis and exposure to Spanish     
    debt are harming the Spanish banking sector. In June, Spain's average     
    domestic non-performing loan (NPL) ratio rose to 6.7 percent from 5.5     
    percent last year, while the NPL ratio for real estate increased to 17.8  
    percent from 11.2 percent in 2010. The effects of this are not limited    
    to major players, since medium- and small-sized savings banks, known as   
    cajas, are similarly exposed to high-risk loans.                          
                                                                              
    While Spain*s two international banks, Santander and BBVA, benefit from   
    their geographic diversification - which gives them the capacity to       
    counterbalance muted domestic results - both have a significant presence  
    in Spain. More than half of BBVA's assets are in Spain, while Santander   
    has around 30 percent of its assets there.                                
                                                                              
    Sovereign exposure of the major Spanish banks, while less than that seen  
    in other eurozone countries, is concentrated in Spanish debt. Their       
    total exposure to government securities was 119.8 billion euros at the    
    end of 2010, representing around 7 percent of the banks' total assets.    
    Sovereign exposure to other peripheral countries is limited.              
                                                                              
     Unemployment and Demography                                              
                                                                              
    While Zapatero pushed through austerity measures intended to cut the      
    deficit to 6 percent of GDP in 2011, the Spanish government later         
    admitted that those goals would not be met. During the campaign, Rajoy    
    vowed to make cuts "everywhere" except for pensions in order to meet      
    Spain's target of cutting the public deficit to 4.4 percent of GDP in     
    2012.                                                                     
                                                                              
    The problem is that austerity measures affect a population already        
    suffering from very high unemployment. Currently, Spain's unemployment    
    rate is 20.7 percent, the highest rate in the eurozone. The situation is  
    particularly serious among those aged 15 to 24; youth unemployment in     
    Spain moved from 24.6 percent in 2008 to 45 percent in the second         
    quarter of 2011. As those rates show, Spanish youths are having a harder  
    time finding jobs than are their eurozone counterparts.                   
                                                                              
    Demography is also an increasing source of worry in Spain. According to   
    official statistics, Spain's population of about 46.7 million will        
    decline by up to half a million within a decade. Spain is an aging        
    country. Most of its population is older than 35 and the declining        
    growth rate is expected to stand at 0.9 percent by 2015 and 0.5 percent   
    by 2025. Emigration is also a factor in this decline in growth - the      
    economic crisis is expected to push nearly 600,000 people to leave Spain  
    this year. As the young tend to be consumers and the old tend to be       
    savers, Spain has only a few years to generate consumption-led economic   
    growth.                                                                   
                                                                              
    Despite the bleak outlook, Spain is better prepared than most European    
    countries to reverse this situation. To some extent, Spain has been more  
    efficient in incorporating foreigners, especially from Latin America,     
    into its economy. Between 2000 and 2005, immigration grew 304 percent in  
    Spain, and by 2007 around 1.8 million Latin Americans were living in      
    Spain. Because of cultural and linguistic similarities, most of those     
    new inhabitants have been effortlessly incorporated into the economy.     
                                                                              
    Due to the size of its economy and of its debt, the consequences of an    
    eventual Spanish collapse might not be as serious for the eurozone as     
    would the fallout from an eventual collapse of Italy. However, the        
    smooth transition in Spain and the apparent lack of serious political     
    conflicts in the near future doesn*t mean that the Iberian country is     
    free from immediate economic challenges.                                  
                                                                              
    Give us your thoughts                          Read comments on           
    on this report                                 other reports              
                                                                              
    For Publication                                Reader Comments            
                                                                              
    Not For Publication                                                       
    Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                                
    (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
</description>
    <date>2011-11-23 13:19:48</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-04-01 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/52058_spain-s-economic-outlook-after-elections-.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>52179</id>
    <title>Dispatch: Mainland China's "Occupy Wall Street" Reaction
</title>
    <description>    Stratfor logo                                                             
   Dispatch: Mainland China's "Occupy Wall Street" Reaction                   
                                                                              
    October 19, 2011 | 2044 GMT                                               
    Click on image below to watch video:                                      
    [IMG]                                                                     
                                                                              
    China Director Jennifer Richmond explains why the "Occupy Wall Street"    
    movement failed to gain traction in mainland China.                       
                                                                              
       Editor*s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition      
       technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete        
       accuracy.                                                              
                                                                              
    Related Links                                                             
      * China Political Memo: Wenzhou Backs Away from the `Wenzhou Model'     
      * The Effects of Chinese Economic Development on Illicit Trade          
      * China Political Memo: Governmental Reforms for Economic Problems?     
                                                                              
    The "Occupy Wall Street" movement has gone global and there have even     
    been attempts to capitalize on this movement in various Chinese cities.   
    The "Occupy China" movement, however, has failed to gain traction on the  
    mainland.                                                                 
                                                                              
    We really didn't expect to see this movement transfer to mainland China;  
    however, given the Jasmine protests earlier this year, there were many    
    who were waiting to see whether or not this movement could be             
    rejuvenated by the global call to action. The global Occupy movement      
    lacks a nucleus or leadership. Despite a common theme of corporate        
    greed, there is very little direction on how to proceed and, under these  
    circumstances, we have seen no contagion effect in mainland China.        
                                                                              
    However, the Tiananmen protests in 1989 also started with very little     
    leadership or direction, and many Chinese activists that I've spoken      
    with feel that all that is needed is a spark to ignite a fire. After      
    all, there are plenty of protests localized daily in China, revolving     
    around issues such as land grabs, the environment and even corruption.    
                                                                              
    The Jasmine Movement provided a spark for organized action in China;      
    however, it quickly fizzled under an aggressive government response. The  
    Occupy China movement hasn't even gotten that far. While it is not        
    unforeseeable for a small movement to gain momentum in China, the         
    problem with both the Jasmine and the Occupy movements are that neither   
    were home-grown.                                                          
                                                                              
    Although the Jasmine movement was spearheaded by Chinese, it was done so  
    from overseas. The Occupy movement had supporters and organizers within   
    China, but the concept was foreign-generated.                             
                                                                              
    Moreover, the Chinese government and media has actually acknowledged the  
    Occupy movement in the U.S. and in the EU, taking the opportunity to      
    point out the failures of Wall Street and capitalism, while at the same   
    time, censoring any indication of an Occupy China movement. Also, many    
    Chinese do not have access to the social Internet sites that have helped  
    to ignite these movements in Western countries, namely Facebook. And      
    those that do, find this information quickly scrubbed off of similar      
    Chinese sites.                                                            
                                                                              
    Ultimately, the Chinese, even those that want change, are wary of         
    foreign influences. Anything emanating from outside of the state will be  
    used by the state to highlight foreign interference. That said the        
    domestic wealth gap and its ensuing tensions could generate a homegrown   
    movement that would threaten Beijing much more so than any Occupy Wall    
    Street movement could muster.                                             
                                                                              
    Click for more videos                                                     
                                                                              
    Give us your thoughts                          Read comments on           
    on this report                                 other reports              
                                                                              
    For Publication                                Reader Comments            
                                                                              
    Not For Publication                                                       
                                                                              
    This report may be forwarded or republished on your website with          
    attribution to www.stratfor.com                                           
    Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                                
    (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
</description>
    <date>2011-10-19 22:54:05</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/52179_dispatch-mainland-china-s-occupy-wall-street-reaction-.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>52322</id>
    <title>[Social] REPORT - Many Occupy Wall Street protesters live in luxury
</title>
    <description>   Quick jump on the bandwagon!  It's not cool unless you're protesting...or
   a hipster....or angry for some reason that may have nothing to do with how
   much you make....by the way South Park is mocking Occupy Wall Street
   tonight on Comedy Central
   http://news.yahoo.com/nyc-arrest-records-many-occupy-wall-street-protesters-045625415.html

     NYC arrest records: Many Occupy Wall Street protesters live in luxury

   Many *Occupy Wall Street* protesters arrested in New York City*occupy*
   more luxurious homes than their *99 percent* rhetoric might suggest,
   a Daily Caller investigation has found.

   For each of the 984 Occupy Wall Street protesters arrested in New York
   City between September 18 and October 15, police collected and filed an
   information sheet recording the arrestee*s name, age, sex, criminal
   charge, home address and * in most cases * race. The Daily Caller has
   obtained all of this information from a source in the New York City
   government.

   Among addresses for which information is available, single-family homes
   listed on those police intake forms have a median value of $305,000 * a
   far higher number than the $185,400 median value of owner-occupied housing
   units in the United States.

   Some of the homes where *Occupy* arrestees reside, viewed through Google
   Maps and the Multiple Listing Service real estate database, are the
   definition of opulence.

   Using county assessors and online resources such as Zillow.com, TheDC
   estimated property values and rents for 87 percent of the homes and 59
   percent of the apartments listed in the arrest records.

   Even in the nation*s currently depressed housing market, at least 95 of
   the protesters* residences are worth approximately $500,000 or
   more. (RELATED SLIDESHOW: Opulent homes of the *99 percent*)

   The median monthly rent for those living in apartments whose information
   is readily available is $1,850.

   Of the 984 protesters arrested, at least 797 are white. The median age of
   *Occupy* protesters taken into custody is 27 years.

   Ten demonstrators were arrested more than once. Most of the arrests, it
   should be noted, were for nonviolent offenses.

   The arrest intake documents show that arrestees came to New York from all
   over the country but particularly from the Northeast.

   Criminal charges ranged from *loitering while wearing a mask* and *failure
   to move along* to *violent behavior* and other more serious charges such
   as *assault 2 [second-degree assault] caus[ing] physical injury to police
   [or] firemen.* There was also one charge of *sex abuse 3 [third-degree].*
   Hundreds were arrested on October 1 for obstructing traffic on the
   Brooklyn Bridge.

   While it would not be fair to conclude that the arrested protesters are
   fully representative of a movement that is not completely understood, this
   information forms the most complete snapshot yet of the demonstrations*
   more militant participants.

   It also reinforces the persistent critique of protesters as entitled,
   upper-class agitators with few legitimate grievances.

   London*s Daily Mail newspaper, for example, recently highlighted signs of
   wealth among the throngs in Zuccotti Park.

   *Sleeping beside the hardcore activists are increasing numbers of wealthy
   students turning up to make the most of the party atmosphere, drugs and
   free food,* reporters Paul Bentley and Micela McLucas wrote in October.
   *While they dress down to blend in, the youngsters* privileged backgrounds
   are revealed by glimpses of expensive gadgetry or the absent minded
   mention of their private schools during heated political debates.*

   *I think that it*s accurate to say that our supporters come from all
   backgrounds,* Patrick Bruner, the operator of OccupyWallStreet.org, a
   website dedicated to help organize and spread information about the
   protests, told TheDC when asked about participants from wealthier
   backgrounds. *That said, a (non-random) survey on our site revealed that
   our visitors literally are the 99% in regards to economic realities.*

   The national median home value of $185,400 reflects U.S. Census statistics
   from the years 2005 through 2009, the last year data were available.

   TheDC was able to estimate home values and apartment rents for 659 of the
   972 residences. Thirteen were in university dormitories; six were post
   office boxes; four were addresses in foreign countries. Many addresses
   proved to be nonexistent, and a few were not provided to police.

   TheDC has elected not to publish personally identifying information.

   BENJAMIN SLEDGE
   Senior Graphic Designer
   STRATFOR
   221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
   (ph) +1 512.744.4320 | (fx) +1 512.744 4105
   www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-02 16:09:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/52322_-social-report-many-occupy-wall-street-protesters-live-in.html</permalink>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>52429</id>
    <title>Re: [Social] REPORT - Many Occupy Wall Street protesters live in
	luxury
</title>
    <description>   To clarify the point more
   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCVHpnixj88
   --
   BENJAMIN SLEDGE
   Senior Graphic Designer
   STRATFOR
   221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
   (ph) +1 512.744.4320 | (fx) +1 512.744 4105
   www.STRATFOR.com
   On Nov 2, 2011, at 10:09 AM, Ben Sledge wrote:

     Quick jump on the bandwagon!  It's not cool unless you're
     protesting...or a hipster....or angry for some reason that may have
     nothing to do with how much you make....by the way South Park is mocking
     Occupy Wall Street tonight on Comedy Central
     http://news.yahoo.com/nyc-arrest-records-many-occupy-wall-street-protesters-045625415.html

     NYC arrest records: Many Occupy Wall Street protesters live in luxury

     Many *Occupy Wall Street* protesters arrested in New York City*occupy*
     more luxurious homes than their *99 percent* rhetoric might suggest,
     a Daily Caller investigation has found.

     For each of the 984 Occupy Wall Street protesters arrested in New York
     City between September 18 and October 15, police collected and filed an
     information sheet recording the arrestee*s name, age, sex, criminal
     charge, home address and * in most cases * race. The Daily Caller has
     obtained all of this information from a source in the New York City
     government.

     Among addresses for which information is available, single-family homes
     listed on those police intake forms have a median value of $305,000 * a
     far higher number than the $185,400 median value of owner-occupied
     housing units in the United States.

     Some of the homes where *Occupy* arrestees reside, viewed through Google
     Maps and the Multiple Listing Service real estate database, are the
     definition of opulence.

     Using county assessors and online resources such as Zillow.com, TheDC
     estimated property values and rents for 87 percent of the homes and 59
     percent of the apartments listed in the arrest records.

     Even in the nation*s currently depressed housing market, at least 95 of
     the protesters* residences are worth approximately $500,000 or
     more. (RELATED SLIDESHOW: Opulent homes of the *99 percent*)

     The median monthly rent for those living in apartments whose information
     is readily available is $1,850.

     Of the 984 protesters arrested, at least 797 are white. The median age
     of *Occupy* protesters taken into custody is 27 years.

     Ten demonstrators were arrested more than once. Most of the arrests, it
     should be noted, were for nonviolent offenses.

     The arrest intake documents show that arrestees came to New York from
     all over the country but particularly from the Northeast.

     Criminal charges ranged from *loitering while wearing a mask* and
     *failure to move along* to *violent behavior* and other more serious
     charges such as *assault 2 [second-degree assault] caus[ing] physical
     injury to police [or] firemen.* There was also one charge of *sex abuse
     3 [third-degree].* Hundreds were arrested on October 1 for obstructing
     traffic on the Brooklyn Bridge.

     While it would not be fair to conclude that the arrested protesters are
     fully representative of a movement that is not completely understood,
     this information forms the most complete snapshot yet of the
     demonstrations* more militant participants.

     It also reinforces the persistent critique of protesters as entitled,
     upper-class agitators with few legitimate grievances.

     London*s Daily Mail newspaper, for example, recently highlighted signs
     of wealth among the throngs in Zuccotti Park.

     *Sleeping beside the hardcore activists are increasing numbers of
     wealthy students turning up to make the most of the party atmosphere,
     drugs and free food,* reporters Paul Bentley and Micela McLucas wrote in
     October. *While they dress down to blend in, the youngsters* privileged
     backgrounds are revealed by glimpses of expensive gadgetry or the absent
     minded mention of their private schools during heated political
     debates.*

     *I think that it*s accurate to say that our supporters come from all
     backgrounds,* Patrick Bruner, the operator of OccupyWallStreet.org, a
     website dedicated to help organize and spread information about the
     protests, told TheDC when asked about participants from wealthier
     backgrounds. *That said, a (non-random) survey on our site revealed that
     our visitors literally are the 99% in regards to economic realities.*

     The national median home value of $185,400 reflects U.S. Census
     statistics from the years 2005 through 2009, the last year data were
     available.

     TheDC was able to estimate home values and apartment rents for 659 of
     the 972 residences. Thirteen were in university dormitories; six were
     post office boxes; four were addresses in foreign countries. Many
     addresses proved to be nonexistent, and a few were not provided to
     police.

     TheDC has elected not to publish personally identifying information.

     BENJAMIN SLEDGE
     Senior Graphic Designer
     STRATFOR
     221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
     (ph) +1 512.744.4320 | (fx) +1 512.744 4105
     www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-02 16:10:12</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/52429_re-social-report-many-occupy-wall-street-protesters-live-in.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>social@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ben.sledge@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:social@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>59630</id>
    <title>Re: PETER - please read
</title>
    <description>   But it's not his call!!
   All the passion and creativity that was going into this has been
   effectively snuffed out by the tyrant.
   I understand if you're done with the idea, but this is not peters domain
   and he doesn't know crap about marketing. 
   I'm going to inform Grant and George of Peter's "opinion" and see what
   they have to say. 

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Jun 5, 2010, at 6:52 PM, Marko Papic &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

     Ok it is dead. Youre the boss and you feel strongly about it.

     On Jun 5, 2010, at 5:43 PM, Peter Zeihan &lt;zeihan@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

       look - i apologize if i came across as snippy

       i've actually had a reeeeally good couple of days and i only tell you
       that because i think this is a reeeeally bad idea in its current form
       with a lot of downsides that you've not thought through

       you two are eager and creative. if anyone can make this work its you
       two. but dear god this scares the bejezzus out of me and i will do
       everything i can to kill it until it doesn't

       Reva Bhalla wrote:

         No one was trying to go over your head. We came up with the idea on
         Friday and you were not available. This is a marketing campaign, so
         naturally we pitched it to Grant first. I see no wrong in that.
         Rather than dismissing you in 2-line emails, Marko and I have been
         trying to address your concerns by explaining to you how this is a
         marketing campaign designed to feed into a global frenzy, highlight
         our methodology and drive readers to the site through well thought
         out world cup analogies. As I said, Marko and I are drafting up an
         intro email to explain the geopolitical thrust behind this campaign
         to George, Grant and yourself. We are putting effort into this
         precisely to address your concerns and because this is an idea we
         really believe in. I do not appreciate you cursing at us and
         dismissing us outright when we are trying to explain the marketing
         logic behind this.  

         Sent from my iPhone
         On Jun 5, 2010, at 3:19 PM, Peter Zeihan &lt;zeihan@stratfor.com&gt;
         wrote:

           ok ms snark

           you didn't run this by me before going over my head or testing it
           out on others -- not smart

           you haven't responded a whit to my basic concerns, choosing
           instead to ply me with arguments that can all be summed as up as
           rubbing it in my face that you hadn't run it by me -- also not
           smart

           if you want to seriously pitch this, you need to address my
           concern first -- not last

           until you do that, this is dead

           Reva Bhalla wrote:

             Thank you for responding to us in a professional manner on a
             marketing idea that has the support of the CEO and the marketing
             director. 

             Sent from my iPhone
             On Jun 5, 2010, at 2:45 PM, Peter Zeihan &lt;zeihan@stratfor.com&gt;
             wrote:

               i really don't know how else to say no, aside from maybe 'no
               fucking way'

               no fucking way

               Reva Bhalla wrote:

                 It's an analogy, Peter. Also, this is a marketing campaign,
                 emphasis on marketing -- not an analytical feature. The
                 question of whether this attracts more people to stratfor or
                 drives them away should come from Grant's judgment. Aaric
                 used to put out the most ridiculous campaigns, completely
                 devoid of analytical value. We are introducing an
                 intelligent and witty marketing campaign that highlights the
                 core of our geopolitical method. I would really urge you to
                 not close your mind to this and understand this is about
                 marketing. I've run this by ppl completely disinterested in
                 soccer abd they were completely captivated. My brother, a
                 marketing guru, also agrees this is a great way to bring
                 attention to stratfor.
                 Marko and I will be drafting up an intro to the WC series
                 that will explain the geopol thrust behind this campaign to
                 show to George, Grant and yourself.

                 Sent from my iPhone
                 On Jun 5, 2010, at 2:20 PM, Peter Zeihan
                 &lt;zeihan@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

                   i couldn't possibly disagree more, and lines like what
                   i've copied from your texts below do a lot more than
                   simply set my teeth on edge

                   Similarly, Argentina's team this year is bursting with
                   offensive firepower with Lionel Massi, Diego Militio and
                   Carlos Tevez on the field. Yet, while Argentina holds all
                   the cards going into this World Cup,  the biggest question
                   looking forward is the whether the dubious leadership of
                   soccer legend Diego Maradona can lead the team to victory.

                   This is a lesson that Athens can learn from its national
                   football team. Considering the lack of offensive talent
                   and flair that distinguishes its Balkan
                   neighbors, Greece has adopted an unattractive defensive
                   style that nonetheless brought them a surprising 2004
                   European Football Championship.  The question for Greece,
                   therefore, is whether it will learn from its football
                   squad that living and playing within onea**s means is a
                   recipe for success.

                   Reva Bhalla wrote:

                     the whole point is to use the world cup to highlight our
                     geopolitical methodology. The analogies between the
                     geopolitical positions of each country and the teams in
                     these match-ups works really well.  It's just a clever
                     marketing campaign that differentiates stratfor -- one
                     that has already been endorsed by both George and Grant.
                     Whether you watch soccer or not, the world cup can be
                     very geopolitically relevant. It's simply a fun and
                     creative way to attract readers to our site. I've
                     circulated a couple of our briefs around to a banking
                     source in Latin America and a DoD contact, and they both
                     went nuts over it. I seriously doubt that this would
                     'drive readers away.' It's just one highlight per week,
                     that's all. Nobody else can claim this angle.  Without
                     the actual World Cup angle, this is just a publication
                     of mini monographs and there is no tie-in to the World
                     Cup, which defeats the whole purpose of the idea.
                     On Jun 5, 2010, at 11:57 AM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

                       actually i'm in canada thru next wednesday (cold and
                       rainy out here)

                       and im pretty dead set against anything that touches
                       sports analysis

                       so if you want this to happen it will have to be in
                       the teeth of my utter and total opposition

                       Reva Bhalla wrote:

                         Hi Peter,
                         Hope you're back safely from Canada-land. 
                         Marko and I came up with a really great marketing
                         campaign for STRATFOR:  The Geopolitics of the World
                         Cup.  Grant loves the idea and George has also given
                         his support. I'm copying and pasting our original
                         pitch to George so you can see where we are going
                         with this. We already have drafts and ideas for most
                         countries, so this will take minimal effort from the
                         analysts side. Grant is also ready to mobilize his
                         marketing sources. We think this would be a great
                         way to drive readers to our site, and we hope you
                         agree.
                         The full email thread with George and Grant's input
                         is below. Please let us know what you think so we
                         can get rollin' with this.
                         Thanks!
                         Reva

                           On Jun 5, 2010, at 1:31 AM, George Friedman wrote:

                             Assuming we have the people and resources to
                             make this an outstansding job also take care of
                             other tasks, I think this is a great idea. Have
                             you cleared this with peter?

                             Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

                             From: "Grant Perry" &lt;grant.perry@stratfor.com&gt;
                             Date: Fri, 4 Jun 2010 17:20:53 -0500 (CDT)
                             To: 'Reva Bhalla'&lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;;
                             'George Friedman'&lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
                             Cc: 'Marko Papic'&lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
                             Subject: RE: GEORGE -- A solid idea that
                             requires your approval
                             George,
                              
                             Therea**s not much I can add to the strong case
                             Reva makes for this series, but I do want to
                             emphasize how powerful I think it could be in
                             driving traffic, free list signups, sales and in
                             brand-building.  I like the concept because not
                             only does it leverage the tremendous interest in
                             the World Cup but does it in a way that shows
                             off our methodology more effectively than a pure
                             marketing piece can.  Ita**s opportunistic in
                             the best sense, and the content would be
                             a**on-branda** and consistent with STRATFORa**s
                             quality standards.  Moreover, the series would
                             expose STRATFOR to potentially fertile audience
                             segments that we otherwise might have trouble
                             reaching, whether ita**s young professionals
                             in Brazil, Indian entrepreneurs or European
                             bankers a** theya**re all soccer fans and
                             obsessed with the World Cup.
                              
                             I say go for it.
                              
                             Grant

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

                             From: Reva Bhalla
                             [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com] 
                             Sent: Friday, June 04, 2010 4:24 PM
                             To: George Friedman
                             Cc: Grant Perry; Marko Papic
                             Subject: GEORGE -- A solid idea that requires
                             your approval
                              
                             George,
                              
                             You are currently in Turkey, the crossroads of
                             civilization, the epicenter of geopolitics. The
                             country loves you, your face is plastered all
                             over Istanbul, the world respects STRATFOR. Life
                             is good.
                              
                             But we can make it better.
                              
                             We have a great marketing idea that will:
                              
                             a) highlight STRATFOR's geopolitical methodology
                             b) battle the perception that STRATFOR is too
                             US-centric
                             c) feed into a global frenzy to drive thousands
                             of readers to our site
                              
                             On June 11, the bulk of the world's attention is
                             going to be on the World Cup. Everyone from
                             Foreign Policy magazine to Goldman Sachs is
                             covering the event.  Marko and I have a unique,
                             salient and intelligent way for STRATFOR to give
                             its geopolitical perspective to this global
                             event.
                              
                             The idea is to pick a geopolitically-relevant
                             country every week and use the World Cup to hook
                             our readers into reading our fresh,
                             contemporary, intelligent geopolitical take.
                             This could take place on the free list, on the
                             site, whatever Grant says. 
                              
                             Take Argentina, for example:
                              
                             Argentina 

                             Argentina is endowed with wide swaths of arable
                             land, natural resources and an interconnected
                             river transport network. The country has the
                             most potential on the South American continent
                             to reach worldwide geopolitical stardom. Yet
                             decades of populist policies, military control
                             and severe economic mismanagement have the
                             country constantly flirting with economic
                             collapse (LINK). Similarly, Argentina's team
                             this year is bursting with offensive firepower
                             with Lionel Massi, Diego Militio and Carlos
                             Tevez on the field. Yet, while Argentina holds
                             all the cards going into this World Cup,  the
                             biggest question looking forward is the whether
                             the dubious leadership of soccer legend Diego
                             Maradona can lead the team to victory.
                              
                             Or, Greece
                              

                             Greece managed to parlay its geopolitical
                             importance since independence in the early 18th
                             Century to gain patronage from the U.K. and
                             the U.S, allowing the country to compete with
                             Turkey (LINK) next door. But since the end of
                             the Cold War Greece has been unable to cope with
                             its relegation into the minor league of
                             geopolitics, which in part led to the debt
                             crisis it faces today. The Greek debt crisis
                             will continue to rock the nation, with strikes
                             and political unrest (LINK) becoming the norm as
                             the state is forced to implement harsh austerity
                             measures. The message the EU has sent
                             to Greece is that it has to learn to live within
                             its means. (LINK: Monograph) This is a lesson
                             that Athens can learn from its national football
                             team. Considering the lack of offensive talent
                             and flair that distinguishes its Balkan
                             neighbors, Greece has adopted an unattractive
                             defensive style that nonetheless brought them a
                             surprising 2004 European Football Championship. 
                             The question for Greece, therefore, is whether
                             it will learn from its football squad that
                             living and playing within onea**s means is a
                             recipe for success. 
                              
                             As you can see, STRATFOR's Geopolitics of the
                             World Cup would simply consist of these briefs
                             with an accompanying graphic every week. This
                             would be a definite crowd pleaser and marketing
                             success -- I guarantee it.  We would do the
                             United States, Brazil, South Africa, Germany,
                             Portugal, South and North Korea, Japan, etc. We
                             have already been brainstorming with the
                             analysts on this, and have some great ideas to
                             go on.
                              
                             We already have pitched the idea to Grant, and
                             he is all for it. All we need is your go-ahead,
                             and we can make this happen.
                              
                             Hope your travels are going well,
                              
                             Reva
                              
                              
                              
                              
                              
                              
</description>
    <date>2010-06-06 02:25:12</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-20 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/59630_re-peter-please-read-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>60428</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA/AZ/US/VZ/RUSSIA/TAIWAN - Erdogan's
 cancer, Turkish plan for Syria and more - TR325
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE: TR325 and his business partner
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Former NSC official in Turkey, adviser to Erdogan,
   energy expert negotiator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

   TR325's business partner has an old classmate friend who was the lead
   surgeon on Erdogan's most recent operation. He said that Erdogan has colon
   cancer, but they haven't seen the second biopsy results yet to see if it's
   metastasized. In the last operation, they cut out 20 cm of Erdogan's colon
   (I just looked up that the average colon is about 1.5m long.)  That's a
   really significant operation. Erdogan is not going to be able to travel
   for a while, and he's going to have to carry around with him a colonoscopy
   bag for at least 2-3 months.  The prognosis is not looking good, though.
   The surgeon said they were estimating 2 years for him.

   This is very likely going to cause major splits within the AKP.  Gul
   doesn't have much support.  Davutoglu is paranoid that everyone else is
   trying to undermine him (there's a definite competition between him and
   TR325.)  When I asked who Erdgogan trusts, two names were mentioned - Ali
   Babacan (Deputy PM) and Taner Yildiz (energy minister.)  Both sources were
   asking how the US is likely to react to this situation.  Would they try to
   back the military like the old days?  CHP is still very much divided. Both
   seemed to think the military won't be able to take advantage of the
   situation.

   On Syria - the conversation centered on how far Turkey is actually going
   to go.  TR325 explained that the Turkish plan is centered on civil war in
   Syria.  Officially, it's Turkey providing the main training,a rms and
   support to FSA. Unofficially, US and TUrkey are doing this together in
   deploying SOF for this mission.  Notice all the talk in the press now
   about civil war breaking out in Syria. This is the narrative Turkey and US
   want to build.  I pointed out that creating the conditions for civil war -
   actual neighborhood to neighborhood fighting - is still pretty difficult
   considering that the Alawite forces are still holding together, but he
   seemed to think that this can escalate within 2 months time. He also said
   without saying that they're working on making that happen. He acknowledges
   it'll be messy and it will take a lot of blood and time for a Sunni power
   to emerge in syria, but that this is the Turkish obligation.

   The Turkish plan to preempt the instability that would result from civil
   war conditions is to implement the buffer zone 5-40km into Syrian
   territory and set up refugee camps.  I asked what levers Iran and Syria
   have to get Turkey to back off in relation to PKK.  He said
   (half-jokingly) that Karilan is Turkey's man (ie. turkey can actually
   negotiate with him.)  But he said PKK third-in-command (still need to get
   this guy's name) answers to Syria and Iran. Turkey knows this very well
   and he says Syria and Iran are already making moves to threaten attacks
   via this faction.

   I'm left with a lot of questions --

   Given the instability that is likely to result within AKP over Erdogan's
   health, would Turkey really be making bold foreign policy moves, such as
   helping to create a civil war in Syria?

   Turkey appears very confident that Syria/Iran have the means to play the
   PKK card. Why risk that?

   Turkey knows they'll be dealing with a massive refugee crisis in Syria -
   why propel that situation?

   Some other points -

   TR325 believes AZ wiill be able to export 5-7bcm via ITGI for SDII. 
   Russia has its stake in Edison to keep a foothold in that route.  The rest
   he agrees is likely going to have to be shipped to Russia eventually since
   the Europeans aren't financing anything right now. He did say that SOCAR
   is flush with money right now and could actually put money down on these
   projects if they have the market demand and client base to do it.

   They were both asking me what is happening with Trinidad and Tobago. I
   told them I have no idea. They were asking because they are involved in a
   business deal to sell conventional subs to Trinidad and Tobago. They're
   assuming the US is preparing something for VZ.  They are also involved in
   similar submarine sales to Taiwan and Japan.
</description>
    <date>2011-12-10 20:04:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/60428_-alpha-insight-turkey-syria-az-us-vz-russia-taiwan-erdogan-s.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>60476</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - SYRIA - Bashar's Mother's Concerns
</title>
    <description>   Unclear. Source spoke of some compromise where Bashar leaves office. But
   she is apparently worried that the situation has come to a point where she
   fears that her sons could meet a fate similar to Q and family.

   Related to this is something I heard from another source who has heard
   that the Iranians floated a deal through al-Maliki that calls for Bashar
   to step down and some compromise can be struck with the SNC/FSA because
   the latter is interested in working with the nat'l army towards the
   creation of a new system. The Iranians didn't want to propose this
   themselves so they routed it through the Iraqi pm who has a personal
   relationship with the al-Assads given his years of exile. Al-Assad will
   not trust any such initiative from the Sunni Arabs but is willing to
   listen to al-Maliki. According to this source the Americans opposed the
   plan because it allows Iran to retain influence in Syria post-Assad. I had
   a hard time believing it but I was told al-Assad was open to the
   possibility of stepping down.

   Interestingly the lady SNC member who I met earlier this evening asked me
   if I could put them in touch with the Iranians after I mentioned that Iran
   is also looking beyond al-Assad.
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Sat, 10 Dec 2011 13:34:29 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - SYRIA - Bashar's Mother's Concerns
   okay, so back to the question that matters then. what kind of 'exit
   strategy' is Momma Assad advocating?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Kamran Bokhari" &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, December 10, 2011 1:26:49 PM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - SYRIA - Bashar's Mother's Concerns

   Yes by Lisa Wedeen but that is at least a decade old.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Sat, 10 Dec 2011 13:24:52 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - SYRIA - Bashar's Mother's Concerns
   yes, the grandmother mediated between Rifaat and Hafiz.  His mom is also
   known to play a very prominent role. There's a book written about the
   matriarchs in the Asad family

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Kamran Bokhari" &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, December 10, 2011 1:17:10 PM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - SYRIA - Bashar's Mother's Concerns

   You are talking about Bashar's grandma. Insight is about his mom.
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Sat, 10 Dec 2011 13:07:31 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - SYRIA - Bashar's Mother's Concerns
   The role of Momma Assad is very well known and has actually been written
   about extensively. She is the one who mediated between Hafiz and Rifaat al
   Assad when the latter attempted a coup (that's why Rifaat was then sent
   off to Europe.)

   question is, what kind of exit strategy is she actually advocating? i dont
   see her calling on Bashar to give up

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Nick Grinstead" &lt;nick.grinstead@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, December 10, 2011 12:37:31 PM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - SYRIA - Bashar's Mother's Concerns

   One of my teachers who happens to be Turkish mentioned that there was a
   story going around the Turkish press about how Bashar's mother was the one
   making all the big decisions. I never saw anything about it in English but
   it tracks with your insight Kamran about B's mom wielding influence on her
   sons.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Kamran Bokhari" &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, December 10, 2011 8:33:27 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - SYRIA - Bashar's Mother's Concerns

   Source is a Reuters correspondent of Syrian-Jordanian heritage who
   recently got kicked out of Syria.  

   Bashar's mother - the matriarch of the family (along the lines of her
   mother-in-law) - is disappointed in Bashar and Maher for the mess that
   they have created. She has been saying things like had your father been
   alive things would have never come to such a point. She is very concerned
   that her boys will meet the same fate as al-Qaddhafi and his sons and is
   pressing Bashar and Maher to seriously look into an exit strategy before
   the rapidly closing window of opportunity completely shuts itself.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --
   Nick Grinstead
   Regional Monitor
   STRATFOR
   Beirut, Lebanon
   +96171969463
</description>
    <date>2011-12-10 21:44:14</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/60476_re-alpha-insight-syria-bashar-s-mother-s-concerns-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>61254</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA/AZ/US/VZ/RUSSIA/TAIWAN - Erdogan's cancer,
 Turkish plan for Syria and more - TR325
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE: TR325 and his business partner
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Former NSC official in Turkey, adviser to Erdogan,
   energy expert negotiator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

   TR325's business partner has an old classmate friend who was the lead
   surgeon on Erdogan's most recent operation. He said that Erdogan has colon
   cancer, but they haven't seen the second biopsy results yet to see if it's
   metastasized. In the last operation, they cut out 20 cm of Erdogan's colon
   (I just looked up that the average colon is about 1.5m long.)  That's a
   really significant operation. Erdogan is not going to be able to travel
   for a while, and he's going to have to carry around with him a colonoscopy
   bag for at least 2-3 months.  The prognosis is not looking good, though.
   The surgeon said they were estimating 2 years for him.

   This is very likely going to cause major splits within the AKP.  Gul
   doesn't have much support.  Davutoglu is paranoid that everyone else is
   trying to undermine him (there's a definite competition between him and
   TR325.)  When I asked who Erdgogan trusts, two names were mentioned - Ali
   Babacan (Deputy PM) and Taner Yildiz (energy minister.)  Both sources were
   asking how the US is likely to react to this situation.  Would they try to
   back the military like the old days?  CHP is still very much divided. Both
   seemed to think the military won't be able to take advantage of the
   situation.

   On Syria - the conversation centered on how far Turkey is actually going
   to go.  TR325 explained that the Turkish plan is centered on civil war in
   Syria.  Officially, it's Turkey providing the main training,a rms and
   support to FSA. Unofficially, US and TUrkey are doing this together in
   deploying SOF for this mission.  Notice all the talk in the press now
   about civil war breaking out in Syria. This is the narrative Turkey and US
   want to build.  I pointed out that creating the conditions for civil war -
   actual neighborhood to neighborhood fighting - is still pretty difficult
   considering that the Alawite forces are still holding together, but he
   seemed to think that this can escalate within 2 months time. He also said
   without saying that they're working on making that happen. He acknowledges
   it'll be messy and it will take a lot of blood and time for a Sunni power
   to emerge in syria, but that this is the Turkish obligation.

   The Turkish plan to preempt the instability that would result from civil
   war conditions is to implement the buffer zone 5-40km into Syrian
   territory and set up refugee camps.  I asked what levers Iran and Syria
   have to get Turkey to back off in relation to PKK.  He said
   (half-jokingly) that Karilan is Turkey's man (ie. turkey can actually
   negotiate with him.)  But he said PKK third-in-command (still need to get
   this guy's name) answers to Syria and Iran. Turkey knows this very well
   and he says Syria and Iran are already making moves to threaten attacks
   via this faction.

   I'm left with a lot of questions --

   Given the instability that is likely to result within AKP over Erdogan's
   health, would Turkey really be making bold foreign policy moves, such as
   helping to create a civil war in Syria?

   Turkey appears very confident that Syria/Iran have the means to play the
   PKK card. Why risk that?

   Turkey knows they'll be dealing with a massive refugee crisis in Syria -
   why propel that situation?

   Some other points -

   TR325 believes AZ wiill be able to export 5-7bcm via ITGI for SDII. 
   Russia has its stake in Edison to keep a foothold in that route.  The rest
   he agrees is likely going to have to be shipped to Russia eventually since
   the Europeans aren't financing anything right now. He did say that SOCAR
   is flush with money right now and could actually put money down on these
   projects if they have the market demand and client base to do it.

   They were both asking me what is happening with Trinidad and Tobago. I
   told them I have no idea. They were asking because they are involved in a
   business deal to sell conventional subs to Trinidad and Tobago. They're
   assuming the US is preparing something for VZ.  They are also involved in
   similar submarine sales to Taiwan and Japan.
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/61254_insight-turkey-syria-az-us-vz-russia-taiwan-erdogan-s-cancer.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>63141</id>
    <title>Contact in Greece
</title>
    <description>   This is an open call if anyone would like to use this contact/source. He
   is a paid subscriber and works as a researcher in the Greek Military. He
   is also submits articles to an online defense journal.
   http://www.defencenet.gr/defence/index.php This can also be seen as a
   BizDev lead with the magazine, so I am including Todd &amp; Aaric as well.

    

   George Tsiboukis

   grtsib@yahoo.com

   0030 210 8029709

    

   Either way  he sounds very knowledgeable when we've spoken and  is an avid
   reader. I've included one of his past emails some of you may of already
   seen. He called me up yesterday to talk about Kosovo, the rise of the "New
   Democratic Party" in Greece, military procurement problems, and aerial dog
   fighting that has been happening in the Mediterranean.  I'm sure he would
   love to contribute any information we could use in our analysis.

    

   Let me know if I can provide any more info about him.

    

   Solomon Foshko
   STRATFOR

   T: 512.744.4089
   F: 512.744.4334
   Solomon.Foshko@stratfor.com

   Well here as you know we had the KYSEA. According to the information I
   have the priorities for new programms are.
   -New SAR and CSAR helicopoters for the Air Force (15 and 2 respectivelly)
   14-32 New helicopters TTH-90 for  the Army, the initial plan was for 14
   units, recently they discuss for 20 more. Soon we will see how this number
   will be distributed throughout the 5 next years. 2 CSAR are included in
   these 32 new units. The final plan talks for 48 transport hilos and 6 CSAR
   hilos. Therefore by 2010 there will be a fleet of 48 TTH-90,  6 TTH-90+ 8
   Super Puma in CSAR role.
   -6 New Frigates with AAW capacities probanly the French Italian Horizon
   type, although the Germans are playing hard because although we had
   promised to the Germans to buy 30-40 Typhoon the new KYSEA did not take
   any decision postopoining that for the year 2010 when F-35 will have
   reached at its final stages of development promising a hard competition.
   The Air Force ceiling is 310 airplanes. With the last summers order the
   Airforce by 2010 wil have 35 F-4 PI2000, 22 RF-4E, 25 M-2000MK-5,
   21M-2000, 89 F-16 BLK52+, 32  F-16 BLK30, 40 F-16 BLK 50, 43 A-7E and
   TA-7C Total, 307 Airplanes. Soon there is going to be a need for 100 new
   plans. Probably there are going to be an upgrating programme for the
   remaining M-2000, perhaps 10 new M-2000Mk5 to cover loses. Important to
   mention that the M-2000Mk5 can use the substrategic SCALP-ER missile (90
   units) and the AS-39 Exocet missiles (39 units).
   -Development with the French the Swiss and the Sweedish a new UCAV Neuron.
   Greece seems to turn to the development of a number of UCAV, UAV SEAD/EW,
   UAV for all the three banches of the Armed Forces. The budget is
   significant and the number of the systems they want to buy are huge for
   the Greek standards. It seems that we are heading for the 1 fighter plane
   2-3 UCAV commanded by the plan combination
   - French Sattelite reconnaisance BOC-HELLIOS and sattelite
   telecommunication systems, high priority
   -New 155mm German Howitzers since our friends the Americans do not allow
   to the Germans to sell to us 168 M-109 from the German surplus. Propable
   number 48-168 even construction under licesence is possible
   -Updrating programme for the 4 MEKO 200 frigates. The fleet will have 6 S
   Type upgrated Frigates, 4 Meko 200 Upgrated also and 6 new I guesss
   Horizon Frigates. Four of them will be AAW and the other 2 have not been
   decided, 2 S Type for training. Total 16+2 boats, 7 modern submarines (4
   T-214, 3 T-209AIP 1 T-209 training), 8 modern gunboats for sea border
   patrols, (perhaps 4 more we will see), 2 old US boats, 7 Super Vita FAC
   missile boats (5 ready 2+1 under discussion), 4 Combattand upgrateded FAC
   missile boats, 7 modern minesweepers, 4 Zubr, 5 modern LST, 1 AOR, 1 LPD
   under discussion, 3 Seahawks hilos. As you can see besides the
   minesweepers the rest of the boats are European. Another mistake of the US
   Government.
   -84 Wheeled AIFV carriers, Finnish, Austrian, French or German candidates
   - 5 Maritime ASW airplanes, there is a discussion for 12 S-3 Viking plans
   instead it depence on the US proposal
   -Uprgading 9 CH-47D
   -Upgrading the existing 20 AH-64A+ hilos to the AH-64D level
   -291 AIFV, German PUMA or Sweedish CV-90 systems
   Several medium and small other programmes

   The problem with the Greek Armed Forces is not the quality of its arms nor
   the quality of the personnel but the luck of long term strategic vision
   and the fear for the reaction of the antimilitary public opinion that does
   not like to see involvement of Greek Armed Forces in conflicts. You see we
   are too much pacifists for the neighburhood we live. The businessmen and
   an academic elite does not believe in the idea of the use of military
   force. On the contrary they are characterised by their compromising ideas
   even for issues of high national interest. They believe and in a great
   level they have convinced the public opinion that problems could be solved
   if you show more understanding and retriet to the claims of our, always
   demading something, friends the Turks.It is funny but if you read the
   related bibliography for the Greek-Turkish disputes it has been Turkey
   that always demaded something from Greece not the oposite. I will attach
   you a study done by a US Navy Officer regarding one of the Greek Turkish
   disputes. I believe that it is a good way to start learning about our
   disputes.

   This Government at the moment is trying to follow the EU instructions for
   lower debts and less expencies and they want to pay first the debts of the
   previous Government and reduce the perecentage of the GDP spend for the
   military procurement. I really do not know how they are going to do that.
   As it looks like the only US stronghold is the Airforce. All the US MBT
   will be withdrawn from the Greek Army soon and replaced by the Leo-1A5,
   Leo-2A4, Leo-2A6HEL. The new Marder1A3 AIFV will replace the old BMP-1 and
   some M-113. In few words the persistance of the US Government to link
   politics with Armament procurement has reduced the existence of US systems
   in the Greek Armed Forces especially in the Navy and slowly but stadily in
   the Greek Army. European industries have gained huge contracts over the
   last few years. The same applies for Britain that gained only 1 major
   programme the last 10 years. The presence of the British Defence companies
   in Greece is very small. The Russians have won bigger contracts. Both
   countries UK and US have lost billions of dollars mainly because of their
   positions for the Cypriot issue and the Greek Turkish disputes. I do not
   know what are the benefits from this policy but I know something very well
   that in Berlin, Paris, Stockholm and Moscow they do parties all  these
   years when Greece buys Defence systems.

   Now for the Foreign Office I am skeptical for what they can. I do not want
   to go through more details because I might be wrong.
   I hope that the information I send will cover your interest for the Greek
   developments. Soon I will have more details for the new Greek Armament
   procurement programmes and I will send you updates.

   The conclusion is that in Greece we do not believe on our own abilities we
   have the warphovic syndrom as they call it and spend billions of dollars
   on arms with no solid result, it is like an investment that does not give
   you back anything but only few bits of  God knows what. A country that
   spends a lot of money on arms but is afraid or trying not to use them does
   not have the respect of the others. This is my opinion I am not saying
   that we should become the gangsters of the region but from time to time is
   good to say no and show to the rest of the world,  respecting above all
   the international laws and the UN charter, that you can use your power
   whatever this could be.

   Best Wishes
   George

   PS
   Enjoy your reading
</description>
    <date>2007-06-20 16:55:21</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-07 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/63141_contact-in-greece-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>hanna@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>solomon.foshko@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>aaric.eisenstein@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>64027</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - Russia/Israel/Georgia/Mexico - defense deals and swaps
</title>
    <description>   Please see insight message further below for more context
   PUBLICATION: No, but ask first
   ATTRIBUTION: N/A
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: MX301 - Former Mexican cop, Latam military analyst,
   writes for Jane's
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY:  A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
   SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION: 
   SPECIAL HANDLING: n/a
   Met with my Mexican source/friend again today and dude is getting shadier
   by the day. We followed up on our past discussion on Russia compromising
   the Israeli-made Georgian UAVs prior to the August war. 
   Here is what else I learned
   One of the source's friends/colleagues -- formerly military i think but
   now does private defense deals on the side (it's Mexico) contacted him in
   July (prior to the Georgia war). Apparently the Georgians had contacted
   this guy because they were frantically looking for a replacement for the
   Israeli UAVs that were compromised. Not only that, but they asked for
   10,000 rounds of ammo (source was talking fast, so i dunno if this is
   exactly what he said) but something like 6.22 mm rounds, 'NATO standard'
   because the Chinese ammo that the Georgians had only went 400 yards. Also
   on the list was a request for 2 bell helicopters. The Georgians were
   pretty much looking for anyone who would sell to them and were willing to
   pay top dollar (shows how frantic the Georgians were in July knowing that
   war is coming). My source put the other guy in touch with a private
   defense contractor to make the deal but ended up getting screwed over with
   the commission.
   Here is the most interesting part:
   I inquired more about the compromised Israeli UAVs. What he explained was
   that Israel and Russia made a swap -- Israel gave Russia the 'data link'
   code for those specific UAVs; in return, Russia gave Israel the codes for
   Iran's Tor-M1s.
   I asked about the S-300 (source tracks a lot of defense deals for Jane's).
   He doesn't think the Russians will give it to the Iranians. Besides, he
   said... Israel and Turkey have been collaborating very closely on the
   S-300s. He explain how about 8 years ago when Russia sold S-300s to Greece
   to base in Crete (which were supposed to protect Cyprus), Russia delivered
   those with a carrier so that Turkey wouldn't try to sink them. (things got
   a bit noisy so i may have misheard some of this). The gist of what he said
   is that Turkey has been cracking the S-300 since the Crete sale and has
   been sharing intel on the S-300 with the Israelis to ensure that they
   retain an advantage over Iran should Iran get them from the Russians.
   as far as the Georgian UAVs go, they were interested in the Mexican ones
   because the Mexican UAVs had something (forget the name. it was
   auto-something' that basically backs up teh UAV system in case someone
   hacks into it and immediately returns the UAV to base.
   Previous insight:
   PUBLICATION: ask me first
   ATTRIBUTION: N/A
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: MX301 - Former Mexican cop, Latam military analyst,
   writes for Jane's
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY:  A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
   SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION: 
   SPECIAL HANDLING: n/a
   I was getting a drink with my Mexican cop friend after class and we
   started talking about Mexican UAVs. He has been advising the government
   for the past couple years on the need for more UAV use for the military
   against the cartels. I read one of his policy memos on paper that was
   pretty technobabbly, but if you guys need any info on this, he's the guy.
    The army and the navy have UAV capability, though the army doesn't really
   take them all that seriously. Recently (like a year ago) the federalistas
   (fed police) started using them too.
   Ok, here's the really juicy part:
   There is a private Mexican company called Idra that the government funded
   to make UAVs. They are actually pretty high standard according to him and
   beat out the Israeli UAVs in testing. My friend was consulting Idra at the
   time and so he was privy to a lot of deals that were on the table. This is
   the story --
   The Mexican government is now paying some $25m (? can get the #s later)
   for UAVs from Israel. Idra is basically like WTF, but the reason is
   basically corruption. There is a deal b/w the Mexican interior ministry
   and the Israelis where they're getting a hefty kickback.
   This is the interesting part, though.
   Idra had an offer to sell UAVs to Georgia (this was happening during and
   after the war). The reason Georgia needed the UAVs is because the UAVs
   they had bought from Israel had been compromised by the Russians. The
   Russians got the data link for the UAV (there is some suspicion that the
   Israelis after the war may have given this to them. Remember all the
   intense mtgs b/w the Israelis and the Russians where the Russians got the
   Israelis to back off of defense deals to Georgia in return for Russia
   backing off Iran?). Anyway, the Georgians gave Idra a picture of one of
   their crashed UAVs. The source explained though that if the UAV were
   targeted, it would have been blown to pieces pretty much (it's like the
   size of a car basically). But the picture he saw showed the UAV intact. He
   inquired and basically what happened was that the Russians acquired the
   data link to hack into the system and force the UAV into the ground. I
   think they may have crashed another one too.
   So, since the Georgian UAVs were compromised, they then tried to sell them
   to the Azerbaijanis. I dont know if that deal went through. Idra backed
   off the deal to Georgia because they were advised that it would raise a
   lot of political complications between Mexico and Russia.
   I asked about other deals between Idra and foreign countries. Chavez was
   the first one who wanted to buy their UAVs. The source advised them to not
   have their first foreign sale be to someone like Chavez for political
   reasons.
   Can get follow-up info if anyone is interested. I just thought this was a
   fun little story.
</description>
    <date>2009-02-26 04:37:21</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/64027_insight-russia-israel-georgia-mexico-defense-deals-and-swaps.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>66013</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - Israel - IM assassination - IL1
</title>
    <description>   PUBLICATION: For background/analysis

   ATTRIBUTION: Israeli source (connected)
   SOURCE  Reliability :  B 

   ITEM CREDIBILITY:  2 

   SPECIAL HANDLING: N/A

    

    

   On the Mughniyeh assassination:

    

   Definite M.O. of the Mossad. Was a very elegant attack. As the footage
   showed, the car was still very much intact, controlled explosion fitted in
   the head rest.

    

   Mossad never claims assassinations. Only time they did claim was for the
   Ali Hassan Salameh assassination (which is also one of the rare times
   Israel acted without notifying US, and US was pissed b/c he was CIA
   liaison).

    

   US for sure knew about the assassination, and state dept's comments on the
   assassination reflect that.

    

   I really believe that Mossad had been tracking IM for some time. This
   small editorial showed up the day after the assassination in haaretz
   talking from an operative perspective on how attached you get to someone
   you're tracking and that weird sense of sadness when they're eliminated
   b/c you've been following their every move for so long. Can only be
   understood from an operative's perspective. He was a great asset for
   Mossad to follow, but unclear why he was taken out now. Perhaps connected
   to a desire on part of the US/Iran to apply pressure on Iran at this point
   or a good opportunity presented itself. Mossad knew he had been
   reactivated for some time now...he had been tracked for a while.

    

   How the operation was likely carried out:

   Mossad works in modular teams. This op took a lot more than just 3 people,
   but you never have that many in country at the time of the attack. You
   have one person go in for surveillance, take them out, send in another
   person to acquire the explosives, take them out, a bomb maker sent in and
   out, etc. Unclear if they had anyone in country at the time of the actual
   attack .. would not be surprised if the bomb was detonated by a sat signal
   (my note - maybe my cell phone ping theory is true?). Also, anyone they
   did have working with them in country at time of attack was likely an Arab
   recruit (probably why Syria and Iran are implicating an Arab regime in
   this). No question though that this was Mossad op.

    

   IM was a key asset, and was active. He was able to survive for so long b/c
   he was so closely guarded by the Iranians. When I say he was active, I
   don't mean he was an operative directly involved in all the training, etc.
   He was the strategist, they called him their chief of staff. And you get
   fat when you're sitting in Tehran as the chief of staff. It's the nature
   of the biz.

    

   Retaliation will come. It's not a question of if, but when. Will be more
   like the Buenos Aires attack - overseas, covert op. And it will be a big
   one. Hezbollah has the overseas assets to pull this off, and remember in
   the BA attack the Iranians succeeded in bribing the Argentinian security
   officials and investigation team.

    

   Israel is militarily ready for another war. Ashkenazi has done a
   phenomenal job over the past year in reforming the system..it's really
   quite amazing. He's a Golani - that means he is hardcore. We have jokes in
   Israel that the Golani Brigades are the ones that eat dirt and are the
   toughest...Ashekenazi is way serious about this, and has not given a
   single interview.

    

   Also, Meir Dagan has totally transformed Mossad. He came in and literally
   shut down the Mossad's research dept. He said I don't want any more
   academic papers, all focus is on operations. This Mughniyeh hit was his
   baby. It's no coincidence that Olmert extended Dagan's tenure to 2009 for
   the first time RIGHT AFTER the IM hit.

    

   Israel's ego was very badly bruised from the war with Hezbollah, and this
   assassination plus the air strike in Syria is Israel's way of coming back
   and showing they're still strong. It also earns Olmert the political
   capital he needs. This is the kind of action are we going to see from
   Israel - more operations like this.

    

   Israel DOES NOT want another war with Hezbollah right now. They are not
   trying to goad them into another war either. The focus is on covert ops.
   There is no way Israel will try a repeat of the 1982 war in Lebanon. That
   was Israel's Vietnam. Israel absolutely is sensitive to military
   casualties, moreso than the US. That was what the Winograd report was all
   about - note it didn't talk about the civilian casualties, it was all
   about the military casualties and whether it was worth their lives to
   launch the ground op so late in the game. This is embedded in the Israeli
   psyche. Israel will not be for a high casualty war. Even during the
   Lebanon war this was true.

    

   On Hamas..

    

   Backchannels b/w Israel and Hamas are ongoing. Egypt is the main channel
   for these (Omar Suleiman mainly). Barak doesn't know what to do yet about
   Gaza. There is even talk of reoccupying, but that's a messy situation
   still. The Dimona bombing came from Hebron; ironically, Israeli peace
   activists succeeded in stopping the wall building at the spot where the
   bomber got through.

   There is a lot of political pressure piling on Olmert to do something
   about Gaza though. The Sderot families have influence. The Qassams are
   more of a psychological weapon than anything, they don't cause much
   damage. But the political effect can not be understated.

    

    

    

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2008-02-21 22:00:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-13 17:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/66013_insight-israel-im-assassination-il1-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>intelligence@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>66346</id>
    <title>[Insight] INSIGHT - Syria - what are they thinking - ME1
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE: ME1
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
   PUBLICATION : no - for background 
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor source in Lebanon
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   DISTRO: Analysts 
   A recent convo I had w/source:
    
    
    
   &lt;Pressure is mounting on Syria&gt;
   Yes, but the Syrians are not over-alarmed.

    &lt;... the US is sending warships to the Med&gt;

   The Syrians and their Lebanese allies see it as a token gesture made upon
   the constant pleading of the Seniora government. Don't worry, sending the
   Cole does not mean that the US will hit Syria. The Syrians see it as
   similar to US President J. Kennedy to send five fighter jets to Jedda,
   Saudi Arabia back in 1963 to show support for the Al-Saud when the
   Egyptian air force, operating in Yemen, used to strafe Saudi Arabian
   border villages.

    &lt;the Saudis are leading a campaign to boycott the AL summit,&gt;
   they made their participation contingent upon the election of a Lebanese
   president ahead of the summit. The president will not be elected ahead of
   the summit, which may relocate to Sharm el-Sheikh.

   &lt; the Gulfies are issuing travel warnings curtailing travel to Lebanon&gt;
   because Syria has charged them with involvement in the assassination of
   Imad Mughniyye.

    &lt;and Israel is strongly hinting that it's going to step up its military
   campaign against Hezbollah..&gt;
   this will happen, no doubt, before the end of this year.

   &lt;what are the syrians thinking right now?&gt;
   The Syrians are excellent game players. They know they must be
   accommodated in order for them to authorize the election of a president.
   The regime is comfortable and the Asad regime is secure.

   &lt; is it time to cut a deal on the presidency?&gt;

   No. Lebanese politics is hopelessly polarized. One side has to be
   defeated.

   &lt;do you have some good insight into what the syrian regime is
   calculating?&gt;

   They essentially want the Americans to free the Israelis to sign a peace
   treaty with Syria and they want the Hariri Tribunal to be degraded. They
   will never allow the election of the president unless they get guarantees
   on this.
</description>
    <date>2008-02-29 20:27:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-13 17:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/66346_-insight-insight-syria-what-are-they-thinking-me1-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:reporting@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reporting@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>66371</id>
    <title>ME1 INSIGHT 2 - MORE ON ASSASSINATION
</title>
    <description>   I was informed that the assassination of Mughniyye has an unmistakable
   Ehud Barak's hallmark. He is known for this style of high concept
   assassinations.

   There is no word on a particular Syrian agent, but this goes without
   saying. The Israelis have many Druze "eyes" in Syria. It is unlikely that
   an investigation will discover the Syrian associates. The Israelis have
   perfected their espionage networks in Syria many years ago. My source says
   the Israeli have learned many lessons from the arrest back in 1965 of Elie
   Cohen, the Israeli agent who was eventually hanged in the Marje Square in
   Damascus.

   There was no evidence of power outage at the time of the explosion. It is
   not yet clear if there was mobile phone connectivity problem. It was an
   evening explosion and word will come out within the next few hours. Will
   keep you posted on this.

   My source believe has an interesting version related to Mughniyye's
   assassination. He does not entirely refute the possibility that certain
   elements in Syrian intelligence were involved in the assassination. I need
   to probe this further. As you know, I do not subscribe to conspiracy
   theory, but I will certainly look into this hypothetical allegation.
    
</description>
    <date>2008-02-13 17:55:49</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-13 17:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/66371_me1-insight-2-more-on-assassination-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>intelligence@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>66558</id>
    <title>[Insight] INSIGHT - Lebanon - Syria/Hez/Iran/IM assassination - ME1
</title>
    <description>   PUBLICATION: No

   ATTRIBUTION: Source in Hezbollah

   SOURCE  Reliability :  B 

   ITEM CREDIBILITY:  3 

   SPECIAL HANDLING: N/A

   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

    
    
   the short story: this Hezbollah source is claiming that Syria intel is
   spreading rumors that nasrallah ordered Mughnyah's assassination because
   of a power struggle he had with him (recall our earlier analyses on how
   nasrallah was getting demoted in hte organization, iran was unhappy with
   him, and figures like Mughniyah, Naim Qasim, etc. have been put in
   charge). THe source denies that these rumors are true.
    
   If the rumors are true, that's interesting, because it would indicate that
   Hez is pretty badly fractured right now. If the rumors aren't true, that's
   still interesting, b/c then what are Syria's intentions? Seems like Syria
   would be very desperate to cover up any involvement in the attack.
    
   from ME1's Hez source:
   My source says Syria has demanded from Hizbullah to interrogate three of
   its top officials, two in its military intelligence apparatus and a key
   security official in the southern suburbs. Hizbullah has categorically
   refused the Syrian demand. Syrian intelligence is already interrogating
   four Palestinian security officers, three of whom are from the PFLP-GC. My
   source believes the Syrians are deliberately trying to shift the focus of
   the investigation in order to reach a dead end. He says their pattern of
   investigation resembles the fake evidence they produced in response to the
   assassination of Rafiq Hariri, when they claimed that a Palestinian
   suicide militant named Abu Adas was responsible for detonating the 1000kg
   explosive device.

   According to my source the Syrians are leading the investigation in a way
   that would suggest a link between Hasan Nasrallah and the assassination of
   Mughniyye. The Syrians are spreading rumors that the IRGC is very angry
   with Hasan Nasrallah and his cliche in Hizbullah for their failures during
   the 2006 summer war. In particular, the Iranians are dismayed with the
   failure of Hizbullah gunners to inflict significant casualties as a result
   of firing more than 4000 rockets against Israel. Hizbullah handling of the
   Iranian provided missiles has caused Israel to lose respect for Iran's
   arsenal of missiles. The firing of the missiles was more like fireworks
   than instruments of death.

   As a result of the summer 2006 war, the Iranians believed that Mughniyye
   and his core in Hizbullah should replace Hasan Nasrallah and his failed
   cliche.  My source categorically denies these rumors as fgroundless.
   According to the rumors circulated by Syrian intelligence, Nasrallah
   decided to eliminate Mughniyye to prevent the IRGC coup against him.
</description>
    <date>2008-03-07 15:58:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-13 17:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/66558_-insight-insight-lebanon-syria-hez-iran-im-assassination-me1.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:reporting@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reporting@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>66770</id>
    <title>ME1 INSIGHT - Reply to questions on IM assassination
</title>
    <description>   &lt;1. How is Hezbollah reacting internally to the assassination? Do they
   suspect that Iranian or Syrian intelligence was complicit in the attack in
   any way?  Is a lot of distrust brewing between Iran, Syria and Hez right
   now?  Any guesses as to where the leak came from on IM's location?&gt;

   Hizbullah does not distrust the Iranians. They distrust the Syrians. The
   Syrians know it and are defensive about IM's assassination. I believe the
   will put the blame of the Lebanese government. Mughniyye was scheduled to
   meet in Damascus Iranian minister of foreign affairs. I am not entirely
   sure who in the Syrian regime leaked information about Mughniyye, but I am
   working on it. Will most likely send you something on it tomorrow.

   &lt;2. What kind of security detail did IM have when he was killed? What's
   his usual opsec procedure for when he travels between Beirut, Damascus and
   Tehran?&gt;

   IM had already held meetings with Hamas people in Damasucs and was
   scheduled to meet with Mottaki and Hamas people in a single meeting before
   his assassination. The Iranians and Hizbullah wanted to find a way to help
   beleagured Hamas in Gaza and they were aiming at finding ways to enable
   Hamas to launch raids into Israel from Gaza. Hizbullah and the Iranians
   are concerned that the days of Hamas are numbered in Gaza. Both see the
   demise of Hamas as a prelude to the demise of Hizbullah in Lebanon.

   When IM and other Hizbullah officials travel to Damscus they inform the
   Syrian authorities just before they cross into the border into Syria. They
   are not required to inform the Syrians in advance. Once inside Syria,
   Syrian intelligence vehicles escort them to their destination. When
   Hizbullah officials travel to Iran via Damascus, they board private jets
   with Iranian markings.

   &lt;3. Does Hezbollah fear that there will be more targeted assassinations
   against its leadership? Have they adjusted their security procedures in
   any way?&gt;

   Absolutely! They have curtailed the travel of key officials to Syria at
   the moment pending the investigation concerning IM's assassination. Their
   security arrangements in Lebanon are already very tight.

   &lt;4. WHy would Hez all of a sudden be willing to accept Suleiman's
   candidacy now? What makes them trust him now?&gt;

   They don't expect Suleiman to sack Shawqi al-Masri. For him to do so,
   means to lose the support of walid Junblatt, and Fuad Seniora as well.
   They do not expect Suleiman to accept their offer. Most likely they are
   manuevering. Speaking of trust, nobody trusts anybody in Lebanon.

   &lt;5. Any ideas where Hez might strike in retaliation?&gt;

   Yes! Hizbullah will seek soft targets. They are most likely to find
   Israeli targets in the Far East or South America. They will avoid targets
   in Europe. They may hit American targets in Jordan.
    
</description>
    <date>2008-02-18 16:15:38</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-13 17:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/66770_me1-insight-reply-to-questions-on-im-assassination-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>intelligence@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>67353</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - Some thoughts on US, UK, France, Turkey
</title>
    <description>   no one said the entire reason Libya is happening is because of these
   reasons.  what they were explaining was that on the mil side of the
   equation, they're getting a lot out of the mission and it's not a total
   drain on them

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, May 19, 2011 11:11:53 AM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - Some thoughts on US, UK, France, Turkey

   Zagros... sounds like Lord of the Rings (yes, I know, the mountains).

   I call bullshit on the entire reason Libya is happening is so that
   Americans can teach UK-France how to do command and control. That is
   post-facto reasoning by military guys who see that as the biggest
   positive, so they are rationalizing it after the fact.

   On 5/19/11 10:50 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

     Yeah, same in NATO. NATO sometimes organizes simulations based on
     totally faked countries, flags and geography. I worked in one of those.
     But this one is a bit different. Because everything is based on real
     facts except for Iran.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Thursday, May 19, 2011 6:44:32 PM
     Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - Some thoughts on US, UK, France, Turkey

     But that is actually a pretty common longstanding practice.

      

     When I was in the Army used to always make up goofy country names for
     the scenarios we created for exercises. But of course anybody who read
     the scenario could tell exactly what country the scenario was referring
     to.

      

      

      

     From: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:alpha-bounces@stratfor.com] On
     Behalf Of Emre Dogru
     Sent: Thursday, May 19, 2011 11:38 AM
     To: Alpha List
     Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - Some thoughts on US, UK, France, Turkey

      

     hahaha, gotta love this part. and you know why

      

     They're about to do what sounds like a pretty elaborate war game within
     NATO, and they complain that every time they do this, they're not
     allowed to call Iran 'Iran' in the game. It's referred to as 'Zagros'. 
     Why? Because the Turks insist on not calling Iran by it's name in these
     things.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Thursday, May 19, 2011 6:24:55 PM
     Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - Some thoughts on US, UK, France, Turkey

     My briefing yesterday with the USAF's strategy group was to help prep
     the USAF chief of staff before his trip to Turkey the first week of
     June. In this meeting, there was a US lt col, French lt col guy and
     British group captain, as well as the Europe guy from the State Dept's
     Office of the Secretary (who I completely owned in the discussion. he
     finally quit trying and then literally applauded stratfor's knowledge of
     these issues). Most of the discussion I had with them centered on our
     view on Turkey, the intermarium, Turkey's power struggle, etc. so
     nothing new to add there. The State Dept is still trying to wrap its
     head around how to deal with Turkey more effectively when it's becoming
     clear that Turkey isn't ready to handle everything on its plate. THere's
     also a lack of understanding on why Azerbaijan matters in this mix. 
     They're about to do what sounds like a pretty elaborate war game within
     NATO, and they complain that every time they do this, they're not
     allowed to call Iran 'Iran' in the game. It's referred to as 'Zagros'. 
     Why? Because the Turks insist on not calling Iran by it's name in these
     things.

     When I brought up Libya, and asked what's next in terms of the air
     campaign, the British adn French guys had an interesting response. The
     talk of UK only having 6 more months of funding for this air campaign is
     all about inter-service rivalry, justifying budgets, etc. The Brits and
     the French really don't seem concerned at all about the financial
     aspect. THey said it's an expense, but it's not expensive. It's costing
     each 1.3 million euro per month to do Libya (including the daily patrols
     and everything else).  By comparison, Afghanistan costs them 1.4 million
     per month.

     They are fine with the stalemate. The British guy, who had met with the
     British air force chief a few days ago, said that no one is really
     trying to force the issue at this point. the rebels don't want to ask
     for state recognition until they get the West back. No one seems really
     prepared to force regime change and give that commitment, but they're
     willing to wait this one out until something gives within to make
     Ghadafi fall (non-militarily.)
     The money isn't what matters. What the Brits and the FRench are really
     getting out of this mil campaign is a good, hard lesson from their
     "American cousins" on command and control for these missions. The lesson
     here is vital for them. THey gave all sorts of examples. When the LIbya
     campaign began, France was still coordinating its mission with the UK
     through this lt col French liaison in the Pentagon instead of directly
     with UK. Now, finally, the Brits have set up a command office in Paris
     for them to coordinate. Little things like that make a huge difference,
     and the US is helping them along the way so that they can prove they can
     do missions like this more independently and manage their neighborhood.
     Classic balance of pwoer, as they put it. French-UK cooperation has
     really benefited from this whole thing. They could really care less that
     it's about Libya. They see this mission as a very useful boost for NATO
     and that this raises the bar for new entrants.

     I countered that you can't consider it a boost for NATO when you're
     missing GERMANY (!)  They acknowledged that NATO's original purpose is
     broken. These regional realignments, with France, UK adn US working
     closely together is the new future. They still seem to think that
     despite warming German-Russian ties, they don't need to worry yet about
     Germany. Their military is still largely seen as irrelevant, and so in
     that sense, NATO is still doing the job of keeping Germany down and
     Russia out.

     The French guy joked that now Strauss-Kahn is out of the running,
     Sarkozy doesn't need to continue the war in Libya anymore. He's got the
     election

     --
     --
     Emre Dogru
     STRATFOR  
     Cell: +90.532.465.7514
     Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
     emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
     www.stratfor.com

     --
     --
     Emre Dogru
     STRATFOR  
     Cell: +90.532.465.7514
     Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
     emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Marko Papic
 Senior Analyst
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 + 1-512-905-3091 (C)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
 www.stratfor.com
 @marko_papic
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 07:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/67353_re-alpha-insight-some-thoughts-on-us-uk-france-turkey-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>67571</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - IR902 - Iranian Diplomat on Mugniyah Investigation 
</title>
    <description>   PUBLICATION:  Not at this time

    

   ATTRIBUTION:   N/A 

    

   SOURCE  RELIABILITY:  A

    

   ITEM CREDIBILITY:   Unable to verify the veracity of the information at
   this time.  Have asked for additional clarification. 

    

    SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:  secure

    

   SPECIAL HANDLING: secure list only 

    

   The Syrians are not divulging information to the Iranians and Hizbullah on
   the proceedings of the Mughniyye assassination investigation because they
   are waiting for the outcome of the forthcoming Arab summit in Damascus,
   and also because they want to dissociate themselves from any linkage to
   it. If the summit does not prove a success, the Syrians will come forth
   with an accusation of Saudi Arabian intelligence for playing a role in
   assassinating Mughniyye. So far, all suspects, believed to be four, have
   been Palestinians from Hamas and the Islamic Jihad.
</description>
    <date>2008-03-18 12:48:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-13 17:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/67571_insight-ir902-iranian-diplomat-on-mugniyah-investigation-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>67572</id>
    <title>[Insight] INSIGHT - Iran/Syria/Hez - Hez told to lay low on IM
	retaliation? - PS102
</title>
    <description>   PUBLICATION: No

   ATTRIBUTION: N/A

   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: PS102: Fatah military source

   SOURCE RELIABILITY:  B 

   ITEM CREDIBILITY:  3 

   SPECIAL HANDLING: N/A

   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva (through ME1)

    
    
   Iran and Syrian have unambiguously told Hizbullah not to avenge the
   assassination of Hasan Mughniyye in Damascus last month. Both countries
   are concerned that such a retaliation against the Jewish state might
   ignite a new war that does not spare Syria and Iran. Hizbullah's
   retaliation for Mughniyye's assassination was via the Islamic Jihad who
   launched the attack against the seminary in West Jerusalem that killed
   eight Israeli religious students. Neither of them has acknowledged
   responsibility for the attack. This has given Hizbullah the advantage of
   appearing as the group that executed the operation without having to
   publicize it for reasons obvious to everybody, i.e; to avoid a massive
   Israeli reprisal.
</description>
    <date>2008-03-14 17:31:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-13 17:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/67572_-insight-insight-iran-syria-hez-hez-told-to-lay-low-on-im.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:reporting@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reporting@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>69968</id>
    <title>[Insight] INSIGHT - Lebanon - Syria angry with Nasrallah? - ME1
</title>
    <description>   PUBLICATION: No

   ATTRIBUTION: Source in Lebanon

   SOURCE  Reliability :  B 

   ITEM CREDIBILITY:  3 

   SPECIAL HANDLING: N/A

   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

    
    
   My note -- another indication that Syria is trying to make Nasrallah into
   its scapegoat?
    
   My source says Syria is very upset with Hizbullah's chief Hasan Nasrallah
   because, during his eulogy of Imad Mughniyye, he limited his accusation to
   Israel. Syrian president Bashar Asad has expressed his anger to Nasrallah
   through his own channels of communication. What particularly upset Asad
   was Nasrallah ommission of any reference to the role played by US
   intelligence in hunting down Mughniyye. Asad feels that by limiting the
   accusation to Israel, Nasrallah was jeopardizing Syria's attempts to
   convince Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert to relaunch the peace talks
   with Damascus. Nasrallah's accusation came at a time when the Israeli
   prime minister was meeting with his Turkish counterpart who informed
   Olmert that Syria accepts Israeli preconditions for resuming the talks.
   Asad has accepted that Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights will be
   gradual and over a 25 year period, and that it will not start until 10
   years after a peace treaty is reached.

   Asad felt that by eliminating the role of parties, other than Israel, in
   assassinating Mughniyye, Nasrallah was essentially asserting that the
   Mossad has penetrtated Syrian intelligence.Politically, it would have been
   more correct to include the CIA as well because Asad can always say that
   Arabs do not have the means to stop the USA, whereas it would reflect
   negatively on them to fail with the MOssad.

   ME1 Comment: Asad's position has much to do with the Arab shame culture,
   which places a premium on face saving, and emphasis on looking good, even
   when there is no reason for celebration.
</description>
    <date>2008-03-07 16:02:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-13 17:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/69968_-insight-insight-lebanon-syria-angry-with-nasrallah-me1-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:reporting@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reporting@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>71381</id>
    <title>Re: [MESA] Fwd: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY - AKP's foreign policy
</title>
    <description>   I will try to get in touch with them to answer these questions.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Middle East AOR" &lt;mesa@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, June 2, 2011 5:17:48 PM
   Subject: Re: [MESA] Fwd: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY - AKP's foreign policy

   have you investigated what kind of links they've had with the MB?  do they
   have the same ideological difference with the MB that the Gulenists have?
   what did their cooperation (if any) look like before the uprisings?  can
   you give some more background on Mazlum-Der? im not familiar at all with
   them

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Emre Dogru" &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Middle East AOR" &lt;mesa@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, June 2, 2011 9:14:18 AM
   Subject: Re: [MESA] Fwd: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY - AKP's foreign policy

   Mazlum-Der organized this conference about Syria in late April and Syrian
   MB's public relations dude Mohammed Tayfur attended. Head of Mazlum-Der's
   speech includes pretty harsh words against Assad. They organized some
   protests in front of the Syrian embassy. They also sent a letter to Syrian
   ambassador and asked permission to visit Syria to investigate the
   incidents.
   Following is a report about the conference in Turkish on their
   website:http://www.mazlumder.org/haber_detay.asp?haberID=9612
   Doesn't mean that Mazlum-Der is an influential political current, but they
   are more Islamist than AKP/Gulen and they are likely to have better links
   with MB.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Middle East AOR" &lt;mesa@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, June 2, 2011 4:56:19 PM
   Subject: Re: [MESA] Fwd: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY - AKP's foreign policy

   yes, definitely a lot of pro-AKP bias, but i find that revealing.  ive
   noticed a lot from AKP officials that extreme arrogance and defensiveness
   when it comes how they do things and how they conduct their foreign
   policy. they think the Arabs are ready to put the pashas back on the
   pedestal in a snap.

   really want to learn more about you're finding on the turkish Islamist
   political current's links with MB. pls send out your initial findings

   agreed he's overplaying turkish influence, but the turks do seem extremely
   involved in the syria situation.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Emre Dogru" &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Middle East AOR" &lt;mesa@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, June 2, 2011 8:51:33 AM
   Subject: Re: [MESA] Fwd: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY - AKP's foreign policy

   a lot of what he says here is AKP's official policy&amp;propaganda, which is
   good to remember.
   your comment on how AKP sees Arabs and how it wants to be a model to them
   is spot on. All Turkish televisions were debating whether turkey could be
   a model for egypt right after mubarak fell, as if it was egyptians' top
   priority. my reading is that arabs don't really care about a turkish model
   (certainly not egyptians) and i think they would feel turkish arrogance in
   this policy, which will backfire big time. doesn't mean that they will
   completely refuse anything that turkey has&amp;suggests but i don't think that
   they want to become another turkey. no matter how much davutoglu says
   turkey doesn't intend to push its demands in the mideast, arabs will sense
   that turkey wants to be their model, and given historical animosity, they
   will be more sensitive about that. i'm curious about what Kamran thinks
   about this.
   source seems to be overplaying turkey's influence on syria (turks wrote
   assad's speech??). but it makes sense that all these opposition
   conferences aim to put pressure on assad. i think it's clear that turkish
   - syrian opposition ties are not that strong. i'm working on this
   currently and my initial findings show that more islamist political
   current such as saadet/mazlum-der has better ties with syrian mb than
   akp/gulen bloc.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: mesa@stratfor.com
   Sent: Thursday, June 2, 2011 4:20:20 PM
   Subject: [MESA] Fwd: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY - AKP's foreign policy

   i know this is long, but worth reading through.  we were having this
   debate earlier on Turkey's influence over Syria. I think they are building
   more influence than we were giving them credit for. also found their plan
   on egypt to be pretty interesting

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Michael Wilson" &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, June 1, 2011 4:02:46 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY - AKP's foreign policy

   PUBLICATION: background/analysis
   ATTRIBUTION: n/a
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:
   Head of DC arm of SETA, main AKP think tank;  strong supporter of AKP,
   close to Davutoglu
   Reliability : B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2-3
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

   Just came back from a nearly 3 hour lunch with this Turkish source.  He
   heads up the AKP's premier think tank SETA from DC and is supposed to act
   as the face of Turkey's foreign policy in US.  He and Davutoglu are close
   (the source is always defending Davutoglu and thinks (our) George and D
   are soul mates) and had just come back from Ankara, where had spent a lot
   of hours working with Davutoglu.  SETA is undergoing a major expansion
   right now. Instead of just being a Turkish think tank, they are turning
   into a regional think tank with offices in Cairo, Brussels and Moscow (in
   addition to their current 2 in DC and Ankara.) AKP is throwing money at
   the institute, trying to make it into a stronger foreign policy arm of the
   government.  (side note - i asked why those locations;  he said Turkey
   wouldn't want to be in the Caucasus because it's better not to 'offend'
   Russia in its periphery;  Cairo is good b/c it allow Turkey extension into
   Arab world, North Africa especially; Turkey can reach into Iraq just fine
   from Ankara and SETA doesn't want to be seen as an intel outlet in these
   countries either.)

   Turkey, specifically the AKP, is in overdrive right now.  Davutoglu says
   it's all overwhelming, but that Turkey should recognize the opportunity
   that has opened up. It was very difficult, for example, for Turkey to
   expand influence into North Africa before. AKP did not have good relations
   with Egypt, virtually nothing with Tunisia, etc. Now, it's open access.
   SETA has been organizing all kinds of conferences -- notably focusing on
   "reformed" Islamists - for opposition groups in nearly every Arab country.
   They bring them to Ankara, give them tours of the ministries, have them
   observe parliamentary proceedings, teach them governance, etc. (They don't
   publicize the events, but the source said the NED funded one of these
   conferences with a Jordanian institute and wanted Turkey to take charge of
   it.) Turkey's internal security forces are training security forces in
   countries like Syria in how to deal with civil disobedience (ie. dont
   shoot protestors).  AKP's natural preference is to raise 'reformed' or
   moderate Islamist political opposition in these countries, with Turkey
   serving as the model.

   The source's attitude on this issue was something that I noticed a lot
   back when I was in Turkey. It's this whole 'all Arabs want to be like
   Turks' attitude during the region. The Arabs are seen as backwards, and if
   you talk to the Turkish military folks, they're seen as dirty, not even
   worth dealing with. But the AKP says since we have the Islamist linkage,
   we bring down the barriers between Turkey and the Islamic world, we CAN
   work with them, do business with them, teach them how to govern
   democratically and bring their militaries under civilian control, but they
   will always be inferior to us. As he put it, this whole Arab Spring will
   be a Turkish Spring, meaning that Turkey will transform the Arab Spring
   into the AKP model and they will all be grateful for it. 

   AKP doesn't really have strong ties with the Ikhwan (MB) in these
   countries, nor does Gulen, but they are working on building those ties
   now.  Another source I was talking to the other day (a former Gulenist)
   explained to me the big ideological differences between Gulen movement and
   the MB, where the Gulenists do not agree with the Sayyid Qutb line of
   thinking on political Islam and believe that Islamists should stay out of
   governance. He was explaining to me how this was drilled into them growing
   up by the Gulenist mentors and how that posed a big ideological barrier
   between the movement and the MB (note the MB never set up in Turkey.) You
   can argue that this aversion to 'political' Islam by the Gulenists is not
   as strong anymore given that the Gulenists rely on AKP as their main
   political vehicle and you even have 2 Gulenists running this time in
   Turkey's election in Istanbul. Point is, AKP and its allies are
   encouraging Islamist opposition groups in these countries to emerge from
   the Arab Spring and wants to mold them according to its own model of
   moderate Islam (you can imagine how this would greatly complicate things
   with Israel and US.)

   The source said Turkey is putting an unbelievable amount of pressure on
   Syria to engage in real reforms. It's not that AKP is trying to overthrow
   Assad, but they see a bigger security risk in having the Syrian regime
   suppress the opposition. He was saying how an increasing number of PKK are
   coming from Syria, and that SYria's policies toward its Kurds lead to
   radicalization, which creates security problems for Turkey.  Bashar's
   second speech was written by the Turks. The policy on citizenship for
   Kurds was pushed by AKP, and Bashar listened. AKP wants to see more, real
   reforms that allow for a legalized opposition. That's why AKP is giving
   the opposition groups in Syria a platform in Turkey - to intimidate the al
   Assad regime and build up links with developing alternatives to the Al
   Assads. It doesn't mean that the political transition will happen
   overnight, but Turkey is trying to push the regime to open up politically
   and allow for competition to enable these other political groups, like the
   MB. (SETA has been the main group organizing these conferences with the
   Syrian opposition.)

   He says that the US is pushing Turkey to pressure Syria harder, and that
   the pressure is coming from the top. Turkey is pushing back saying that
   they want to deal with Syria on their terms and that they don't want to
   push the Syrian regime over the edge.

   AKP wants to help Egypt rise in the region. It's not that Turkey views
   Egypt right now as a serious competitor, but it thinks that if Egypt could
   get its shit together under Turkish tutelage, then that will allow Turkey
   to better manage the region, especially when it comes to controlling and
   reforming Hamas, dealing with Libya, Tunisia, etc. (Interesting to note
   that the Turks are thinking along these lines already - just as US is
   looking to Turkey to share the burden, Turkey is already looking to
   develop proxies to share the burden within the region.) Things will go
   very badly if the military in Egypt doesn't follow through with its
   promises in the elections. Turkey wants to make sure the opposition,
   especially the MB, is given the room to rise.  It doesn't matter if Israel
   doesn't like it -- that's Israel's problem.

   He expressed frustration a lot throughout the discussion - that the US
   still views Turkey as junior, and tells it 'do this' or 'do that' in its
   foreign policy. The AKP doesn't like being treated that way, which results
   in a lot of issues when Turkish and US officials meet. Davutoglu feels
   that the security issues in the Persian Gulf region are exaggerated, and
   that the US plays up the Persian-Arab divide in trying to get Turkey to do
   something. From AKP's point of view, the question is, 'what do you want us
   to do?'  The AKP wants to tame the sectarian conflict, not exacerbate it
   by openly taking sides and making Iran out as the big, bad threat.

   This broadened up into a discussion on Davutoglu's 'zero problems with
   neighbors' foreign policy.  The source explained how a lot of people see
   this foreign policy as naive, but he says Davutoglu is not as naive as he
   appears. He may be an academic, but he's cunning. He knows he has problems
   iwth neighbors, but in his view, it doesn't serve Turkey's purposes to
   articulate those problems and brand neighbors as rivals. If Turkey tells
   its neighbors taht its whole strategic purpose is to resolve its problems
   and remove conflict, then it feels that it can work with them more
   effectively. this is the approach it takes with Iran, Russia, etc.,
   avoiding confrontation. He said how on the surface, Turkey won't take
   aggressive action against Iran, but in the meantime of course AKP will
   bolster the Sunnis in Iraq. I countered that that assumes that events in
   Turkey's neighborhood will occur according to Turkey's timeline and when
   Turkey is ready to deal with those problems - the world doesn't work that
   way. When problems push up against Turkey's interests, Turkey will have to
   respond one way or another, even if it doesn't seem 'neighborly.' Overall,
   the impression I get is that the AKP's foreign policy guys are still under
   the impression that this Davutoglu foreign policy doctrine is still the
   best way to go about conducting foreign policy. There is very little
   attention paid to the prioritization of foreign policy interests. Turkey
   still seems to be running around trying to put out fires and seize
   opportunities but is still severely lacking focus and discipline.  What
   Davutoglu does understand, according to the source, is that the best way
   for Turkey to learn is by doing. Davutoglu apparently compares Turkey's
   experience to the US post WWII when US didn't even have an intel agency.
   He believes that all of these regional developments will push Turkey into
   action and force Turkey to learn quickly how to manage its neighborhood.

   (Side note - Davutoglu doesn't want to translate his 500 page book on
   Strategic Depth into English, though it's been translated into Arabic and
   Russian. I asked why, especially since English is the lingua franca,
   wouldn't more people understand Turkey's foreign policy choices if they
   could read the book that the foreign policy chief wrote? He didn't want to
   give into the idea that English is the lingua franca - you can still sense
   this strong aversion to recognizing US power and wanting to assert Turkey
   independently of the US.)

   He thinks AKP will win big in the next election. There is really not much
   the secularist establishment can do to undermine their support. As long as
   the economy is okay, the AKP is secure. The ideological and political
   divisions within TUrkey are so severe still. This was especially clear
   following the assassination attempt against Erdogan recently. He talks
   with disgust about how the military could never do what the AKP has done
   in the past decade. When teh military ran things, they only cared about
   themselves whereas the AKP build trust between the state and the people.
   He said that the secularist groups still refuse to deal with Islamic
   countries. Even when SETA tries to reach out to the secularist think
   tanks, business associations for projects in places like Tunisia, Egypt,
   etc., they reject them with the attitude that Arabs are beneath them, we
   don't need to work with them. He says (and this is what davutoglu argues)
   that the AKP's mentality is what allows Turkish foreign policy to expand.

   The military doesn't have much option of trying to undermine AKP in the
   lead-up to elections. He pointed out the leaks recently on how some
   retired members within the military had meetings with PKK leadership, the
   allegation being that the military 'deep state' is trying to orchestrate
   attacks and undermine AKP's Kurdish policy.

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-06-02 16:21:31</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-07 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/71381_re-mesa-fwd-alpha-insight-turkey-akp-s-foreign-policy-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>mesa@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:mesa@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>72057</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - TURKEY - on Iran/F-35s/PKK
</title>
    <description>   PUBLICATION: background/analysis
   ATTRIBUTION: Turkish military source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Turkish air force pilot in DC for training on F-35
   joint strike fighter
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY:  don't know yet
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: high
   SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:  secure
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
   **we covered a lot during this little coffee date, but highlights are
   below. see especially what i got out of him on Israeli mil/special forces
   training in Turkish mountains for prep against Iran. will be seeing him
   again friday night for any follow-up questions
   (source is in DC for 3 yrs to train on and integrate the F-35 joint strike
   fighters into the Turkish air force, which they'll get in 2015 i think. he
   has been a pilot for the Turkish air force for 9 years, participated in a
   lot of dogfights over the Aegean, bombing raids in northern Iraq against
   PKK)
   Integration of the F-35s is very difficult and complex, but I feel like
   the US made TUrkey pregnant with this jet. You know it's like we're 4
   months pregnant or something, there is no going back. But we do need this.
   Besides Turkey, Greece, Italy, Spain and Singapore are all after the
   F-35s. If we don't get these we will be put behind.
   US-Turkish defense ties are growing a lot stronger, you can see by this
   deal. it's a lot of money, $10.5 billion dollars. Now the Greeks, tell me
   how the EU can justify their defense spending? because of Turkish threat?
   What TUrkish threat? (source then goes into looong explanation on how
   Greece has imposed these restrictions on air space over Aegean - the 6 mi
   v. 12 mi controversy that Turkey says Greece imposed unilaterally...he is
   apparently very pissed off at the Greeks). What happened to those days
   like in 1974 when Turkey and US were doing joint flights over Greek air
   space (laughs). As you know, US supplies both Greece and Turkey... there
   is not much we can do about that.
   Turkish-Israeli defense ties are still very strong. I have participated in
   a lot of Anatolian Eagle exercises and i'm disappointed in how we acted
   this year in kicking Israel out (source was clearly very secular, very
   military, not a fan of AKP). The military is not happy about this, but it
   is a political decision in cabinet for Turkey to invite foreign countries
   to our exercises. IT was an AKP decision, not a military decision.
   I dont think TUrkey will do anything if US/ISrael strike Iran. We know
   about the ISraeli air defense integration that they've achieved recently
   (didn't elaborate on this). Now what is interesting is you know Iran has
   very rough terrain and in winter it is especially difficult weather.
   Israel is on mediterranean, very different weather. So, guess where
   Israeli forces are training now?  Turkish mountains.
   If the US really cooperates closely with Turkey, and I mean REALLY
   cooperates, then there is a chance Turkey could allow use of its air
   space, maybe. When Turkey was bombing PKK targets in northern Iraq, i was
   doing those bombing raids based off intel provided by US.  (I ask, so then
   if US is cooperating and sharing intel, what more does TUrkey want?)  The
   targets were not important ones. US is still holding back on that
   information. Last year, US also prevented Turkey from carrying out an
   operation in northern Iraq. (sounds like tensions are still very much
   there)
   You are right, the TUrkish military's influence has weakened under AKP.
   Miiitary couldn't win hearts and minds of Kurds so AKP is doing this new
   strategy. (source then gives very typical Turkish explanation of how there
   is no such thing as Kurdistan, Kurds are really Turks, dont have a real
   language, etc.)
</description>
    <date>2009-11-08 23:52:17</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-09 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/72057_insight-turkey-on-iran-f-35s-pkk-.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>72358</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION - US/MALAYSIA - evolving strategic cooperation
</title>
    <description>   One point I forgot to mention. While Malaysia is not yet ready to be put
   in a situation where it has to 'choose' between the US and China, and will
   avoid and delay doing this for a long time, ultimately its strategic
   priority lies with the most powerful navy, and that means the United
   States.

   Malaysia has a large ethnic Chinese community that is economically
   powerful and increasingly a critical voting block with the power to weaken
   the ruling BN coalition -- this is conceivably a vulnerability in some
   future time. Malaysia has experienced Chinese-authored destablization in
   the past, in the form of Communist insurgency. We are nowhere near a
   situation where China would revert to Cold War behavior like this in
   supporting proxies to destabilize Malaysia. But my point in bringing this
   up is that ultimately Malaysia will side with the US if the situation
   comes to a standoff, because only the US (and its allies like Australia
   and Japan) can guarantee Malaysia's security and economic stability in its
   current form.

   The current question is how to maintain strong relations with both the US
   and China and avoid not move too fast or too far in a particular course of
   action that causes a negative reverberation on the other relationship.
   Since the US-China are in a 'thaw' period right now, this isn't as much of
   a problem, but as we've discussed the thaw can go away pretty soon, and
   China's maritime advances are gaining more attention.

   On 6/8/11 5:39 AM, Matt Gertken wrote:

     "Okay I've finished looking into the recent US-Malaysia developments.
     The main story is simply that the US has said it is willing to expand
     military engagement, and has left the offer open to Malaysia to expand
     it.

     US-Malaysia defense cooperation began in the 1960s, was boosted in the
     1980s, in response to Vietnam's invasion of Cambodia, and then boosted
     again after 9/11. The low point in the relationship was the Asian
     financial crisis and Mahathir's run-in with the IMF, but ultimately
     Malaysia has always insisted on heavy state control of the economy and
     this hasn't hindered defense relationship.  The relationship was often
     conducted discretely to avoid Malaysian domestic hang-ups, but after
     9/11 it became more open, and Mahathir used the war on terrorism as a
     pretext to crush Islamist-leaning political opponents.

     The US has set Indonesia as the cornerstone of ASEAN re-engagement, and
     reached out to others like Vietnam, but it is also reaching out to
     Malaysia as a natural economic partner and one of its examples of a
     "good" Muslim state. Moreover, Malaysia is embedded in the Southeast
     Asian security dynamic. It is a key state given its position on the
     Strait, and it has has claims in the South China Sea territorial
     disputes, where the US is attempting to insinuate itself to prevent
     China from succeeding in dividing and isolating its ASEAN rivals.

     Obama, who stresses his Pacific heritage, has already held a bilateral
     visit with Najib once before at the US Nuclear Security Summit, and
     Gates and Clinton both visited in 2010, prior to Gates recent bilateral
     with Najib at the recent Shangri-La conference. The US is entering the
     East Asia Summit this year (along with Russia), which Malaysia
     originated as a non-US influenced Asian discussion group; Malaysia is
     joining the US-led Trans Pacific Partnership negotiations for a large
     new regional trade framework. On the security front, Malaysia has hailed
     the US joining the ASEAN Defense Ministers meetings.

     Malaysia in 2011 participated in the US/Thai Cobra Gold exercises,
     rather than being a mere observer. It recently sent a medical team to
     assist in Afghanistan. It remains a major counter-terrorism partner, and
     a counter-piracy player in the Strait, and has expanded authorized
     nonproliferation efforts by means of the 2010 Strategic Trade Act. Najib
     called for a new regional rapid-response team to deal with natural
     disasters, during his keynote address at Shangri-La.

     Both sides are emphasizing that the main focal points of cooperation are
     counter-terrorism, Malaysian cooperation in Afghanistan, Malaysian
     enforcement of non-proliferation rules, counter-piracy, and natural
     disasters. Yet the US is clearly laying the groundwork for something
     bigger than this.

     However, what is important is that the US wants cooperation with
     Malaysia to focus more on precisely the threats posed by China's rising
     maritime power. What the US is really offering is to expand its
     cooperation with Malaysia to cover maritime domain security and
     awareness. PACOM Chief Willard's comments in Kuala Lumpur highlight what
     the US has in mind: "Domain security -- particularly maritime security
     -- is the quintessential common cause among nations. Not only for their
     navies but for the abundance of agencies that contribute to security ...
     coast guards or their equivalent, with law enforcement duties, in
     particular, can challenge illegal encroachment and criminal activities
     that navies may not. Attainment of maritime domain awareness --
     essential to security operations -- requires whole-of-government
     collaboration within and across our nations, across governments,
     judiciary, commerce, transportation, treasury and foreign affairs
     agencies all play key roles in assuring maritime security." 

     Malaysia is not currently in this frame of mind. Najib's recent comments
     emphasized the wishful thinking that cooperation with the US and China
     are not exclusive, and multilateralism is the only way forward --
     clearly Malaysia is trying to walk a the fine line and avoid 'cold war'
     scenarios between US and China.

     As with most of the US' re-engagement efforts in ASEAN, the concrete
     progress may be slow to develop.Gates' meeting with Malaysian PM Najib
     is a meeting of one lame duck and a potential lame duck. If Najib can't
     win big in upcoming general elections -- by far the primary concern in
     Malaysia at the moment -- then his party may dump him. And Malaysian
     foreign policy is essentially top heavy, driven by the PM, as a legacy
     of the Mahathir era, so there may be a limit to anything the two sides
     should decide upon, until Malaysia's political situation is more
     certain.

     It is also important to notice that China has been rapidly expanding its
     ties with Malaysia too. Hu Jintao visited in 2010, for the first time
     for a Chinese president in 20 years, and big business projects are under
     way, including Chinese companies building the new Kuala Lumpur mass
     transit railway.

     But what we can see here is that the US is trying to nudge Malaysia into
     a new era of defense cooperation, one that is focused on maritime
     security in a way that seeks to bind China into existing structures, and
     prepare for contingencies if this fails.

     ***

     NOTES on Malaysia-US military cooperation

      

      

      

     Office of Defense Cooperation - http://malaysia.usembassy.gov/odc.html

     .       ODC manages and supports the Malaysian Armed Forces (MAF)
     procurement of U.S. defense equipment, services and training.

     .       The F/A-18 "Hornet" case is the largest and most active FMS
     program.

     .       ODC coordinates and supports approximately 14 - 16 bi-lateral
     and multi-lateral exercises with the Malaysian Armed Forces and the
     Royal Malaysian Police each year in order to promote interoperability
     and cooperation.  Examples of such exercises are:  Cooperation Afloat
     Readiness and Training (CARAT), Cope Taufan, Keris Strike, Air Warrior,
     and Joint Combined Exchange Training.

     Conferences

     Each year, ODC sends about seventy members of the Ministry of Defense
     and Malaysian Armed Forces to participate in U.S. hosted or co-hosted
     conferences and seminars.  These events increase interoperability and
     cooperation between the U.S., Malaysia, and other countries in the
     region.

     .       ODC also supports specialized regional events and seminars in
     areas such as pandemic influenza preparedness and response;
     noncommissioned officer engagement, and maritime security.

     U.S. MILITARY EDUCATION AND TRAINING

     ODC manages the International Military Education and Training (IMET)
     program which provides U.S. training on a grant basis to students from
     Malaysia.  Each year, ODC sends approximately fifty Malaysian military
     personnel for training under IMET. ODC also manages the Foreign Military
     Sales Training Program, Counter Terrorism Fellowship Program (CTFP), and
     Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (APCSS) courses.

     .        

      

      

     Asia-Pacific Security Cooperation: National Interests and Regional
     Order. Ed. by See Seng Tan and Amitav Acharya. "Malaysia Defense and
     Security Cooperation: Coming out of the closet" J. N. Mak. pp127-153
       http://books.google.com/books?id=BTeRGyeAqbwC&amp;pg=PA138&amp;lpg=PA138&amp;dq=%22United+States%22+AND+%22Malaysia%22+AND+%22military+cooperation%22+OR+%22defense+cooperation%22+OR+%22security+cooperation%22&amp;source=bl&amp;ots=EFpUilh0L_&amp;sig=_fFDv3tCrBgTio2fsv3GqY-mInk&amp;hl=en&amp;ei=wVvuTfwiwdvRAbSJjd4D&amp;sa=X&amp;oi=book_result&amp;ct=result&amp;resnum=3&amp;ved=0CCYQ6AEwAg#v=onepage&amp;q=%22United%20States%22%20AND%20%22Malaysia%22%20AND%20%22military%20cooperation%22%20OR%20%22defense%20cooperation%22%20OR%20%22security%20cooperation%22&amp;f=false

     .       1958 - US-Malay pact for US to supply military equipment

     .       Malaysia didn't want to join SEATO, didn't want to become US
     puppet (substitute for British colonial master), and was fighting ethnic
     Chinese domestic communist insurgency, so needed cooperative elements in
     Chinese community

     .       Malaysia did join AMDA , virtually inherited from British, but
     had to be very careful not to reveal full extent. Be discrete about
     American cooperation.

     .       Opposition to economic neoliberalism from the West meant that
     Malay had to be careful about cooperating with the West on defense

     .       1969 race riots -

     .       Mahathir and other Malay nationalists emerge declaring less
     accommodation toward minorities

     .       1970 - Malaysia begins state-driven development model. `Look
     east' to Japan and ROK for examples. Create Malay capitalist class.

     .       Malaysian acquisition of military assistance from the US/West
     grows

     .       Malay coop with Australia under FPDA; the only problems emerge
     when Oz seems ready to act as regional policeman under the US, such as
     when John Howard said Oz could target terrorists outside its borders,
     drawing Mahathir's ire.

     .       1981 Mahathir takes over. Worries about American values and
     neoliberalism. But

     .       ASEAN defense cooperation lacking - differences, and all low
     tech (therefore nothing to gain)

     .       Malaysia tried to encourage the US not to abandon the region
     after the Vietnam war

     .       Malay coop with Thai and Indonesia on border regions to fight
     communist insurgency

     .       Malay reorient toward conventional land threat when Vietnam
     invaded Cambodia early 1980s.

     .       US assistance increased after the Viet invasion of Cambodia, and
     after Soviet fleet buildup at Cam Ranh Bay. Greater funds, and
     International Military Education Training (IMET). In 1980 Malaysai buys
     88 Skyhawk Jets, and in 1984 the relationship was `upgraded and
     institutionalized' by a bilateral training and consultative group being
     formed.

     .       After 1991 Vietnam withdrawal, Malaysia began to focus more on
     maritime and Spratly claims

     .       Malaysia sought to coop with US and Oz, despite Mahathir's
     opposition to US agenda

     .       In 2002 Najib gave a paper
     http://www.heritage.org/research/lecture/us-malaysia-defense-cooperation
      where he talked about how the US-Malaysia defense coop was an `untold
     story' and well kept secret. Talked about frequent US ship visits; US
     airforce training with Royal Malaysia counterparts, mock battles; US
     Navy SEALS do training in Malay two times per year; US Army does field
     exercises with Malaysian army, whose jungle warfare capabilities are
     renowned and they are nicknamed `whispering death'; and the IMET program
     benefiting lots of defense personnel. US has never turned down a Malay
     request for weapons. 9/11 supposedly galvanized relations like never
     before. US is allowed overlfights, `excellent access' to Malay intel,
     and Malay forces protect US ships in the strait, and teaching other
     ASEAN states how to spot and freeze terrorist assets

     .       Terrorists wanted to topple `secular' regimes and incumbent
     regimes, Malaysia was concerned about Jemaah Islamiyah and Kumpulan
     Mujahidin Malaysia (KMM). after 9/11 Malay made public much of the
     cooperation with the US that had begun much earlier but was kept secret.

     .       Mahathir could crackdown on Muslim political opponents (like
     PAS) by means of the anti-terrorist push post-9/11

      

      

     SOURCES

     http://www.pacom.mil/web/site_pages/media/news.shtml

      

      

      

     SOME RECENT EVENTS

      

     10th Shangri-La Dialogue - IISS Asia Security Summit - Najib gave
     opening address, and Gates and Najib had a direct talk

      

      

     Keynote Address - Dato' Sri Najib Tun Razak

                                        

                                        

                       The 10th IISS Asia Security Summit

                                        

                            The Shangri-La Dialogue

                                        

                                   Singapore 

                              Friday 03 June 2011

                                        

                                Keynote Address

                           Dato' Sri Najib Tun Razak
                            Prime Minister, Malaysia

                                        

                                  As Prepared

                                        

                                        

                                        

     Salam-alaikum and a very good evening.  Mr Teo Chee Hean Acting Prime
     Minister, honourable ministers, defence chiefs, distinguished
     participants, ladies and gentlemen, let me first thank Dr John Chipman
     for his kind words of introduction, and for inviting me to speak with
     you this evening.  I am delighted to be here in Singapore, to be joined
     by so many distinguished government representatives, policy makers,
     business people and opinion leaders - and of course to mark ten years of
     fruitful and productive dialogue here, at the Shangri-La Hotel.  The
     first time I was here, back in 2002, I was Defence Minister.  A lot has
     changed since then.  For one thing, I am now Prime Minister, which I am
     afraid means I get to come between you and your dinner.  

     Ladies and gentlemen, in June 1963 President Kennedy, delivering the
     commencement address at the American University in Washington, spoke at
     length about peace in a thermonuclear age.  He said, `What kind of peace
     do I mean?  What kind of peace do I seek?  Not a Pax Americana enforced
     on the world by American weapons of war, not the peace of the grave or
     the security of the slave.  I am talking about genuine peace, the kind
     of peace that makes life on earth worth living, the kind that enables
     men and nations to grow and to hope and to build a better life for their
     children - not merely peace for Americans, but peace for all men and
     women - not merely peace in our time but peace for all time.'  

     The thing that strikes me most about his words is that, rather than
     succumbing to an expedient vision of world peace, he chose not to
     compromise and to continue to strive for a better world.  Three decades
     later, the end of the Cold War, rather than producing the peace dividend
     we all expected, has instead given rise to a new set of complex,
     multi-dimensional security challenges.  The elimination of Osama bin
     Laden and now the capture of Ratko Mladic serve as a reminder of the
     security threats we face, albeit threats of a different kind to those
     faced by the world back in the 1960s.

     Today, we cannot and we must not return to the old bipolarity of that
     Cold War, an era of stalemate and stand-off that crippled the world for
     far too long.  We have no choice but to rise to these new challenges
     together.  In the 21st century our economies are so integrated and
     interdependent, and production processes are so dispersed across
     borders, that it no longer makes sense for global powers to go to war;
     they simply have too much to lose.  National interests are becoming more
     and more about collective interests, and our task now is to reflect this
     in a multilateralism that is both hard-headedly realistic and
     progressive.  Because the way ahead, I have no doubt, must be built on
     co-operation and not on confrontation; for that, every country, every
     leader here today, must play their part.  

     The cynics thought that Asia and the West could never truly come
     together as a cohesive whole, that we had too little in common, that
     life in Surabaya was simply too far removed from life in San Diego.  The
     last ten years have proved them wrong.  Yes, we come from many cultures
     and we speak many languages but, as US Defence Secretary Robert Gates -
     and I wish him well in his retirement - said in this room last year, the
     Pacific Ocean is not a barrier that divides us but a bridge that unites
     us.

     The United States has long been a modernising and moderating force
     within our region, supporting democratic institutions, improving
     governance and fostering respect for human rights.  Barack Obama has
     described himself as America's first Pacific president, and Secretary of
     State Hillary Clinton has spoken of the need to find strong partners
     here.  Such warm words are welcome, but they are just the latest in a
     long exchange of ideas and views between the United States and Asia.  I
     am pleased that America, and of course Russia, will be taking part in
     the East Asia Summit for the first time later this year.

     Next month will see the 40th anniversary of Henry Kissinger's secret
     mission to China ahead of President Nixon's historic visit in 1972. 
     Coming in the midst of the Cold War, Nixon's visit shocked many in the
     United States.  How could the fervently anti-communist leader of the
     Western world possibly sit down with his ideological adversary?  The
     answer, of course, is that the United States saw in China the potential
     to become a counterweight to the Soviet bloc, but this new alliance went
     much further than that.  Nixon's visit was not just about the United
     States opening itself up to China; it was about China opening itself up
     to the United States.  It is a relationship that has benefited both
     countries ever since, but such productive dialogue can only take place
     if there is an openness to engagement on both sides.

     It would of course be quite wrong to suggest that China's actions in the
     early 1970s were somehow uncharacteristic, that they represented a
     change in stance and attitude towards the wider world.  Since the time
     of the Ming Dynasty, China has been a great and growing power, and
     today, as the focus of the world's economy has shifted from West to
     East, from the nations of the Atlantic Ocean to those of the Pacific,
     China has grown still more assertive, opening up and engaging with its
     neighbours and competitors.  

     We should see this as a cause for optimism rather than concern.  China
     may be expanding - it has enjoyed spectacular economic growth of 9-10% a
     year for the last 20 years - but it is not going to dominate the globe
     in the way the biggest economic forces of the past once did.  In the
     late 1940s, the United States not only had the largest GDP of any
     nation, it also accounted for more than half of the world's wealth. 
     When, as predicted, Chain becomes the world's largest economy in around
     30 years, it is likely to account for less than a quarter of global
     GDP.  Wealth will be much more evenly spread, with the United States,
     Europe and Japan acting as a balance to Beijing's rapid growth.

     Nor should China's growing military capacity cause us undue alarm. 
     Despite rapid increases in Chinese military expenditure, the United
     States will continue to be by far the pre-eminent military power and by
     far the biggest spender.  Minister Liang Guanglie may oversee the
     world's largest standing army, but in Malaysia we know well that China's
     first commitment is to peace.  

     Six hundred years ago the great Chinese admiral Zheng He visited
     Malacca.  He brought with him 300 ships and something like 35,000 troops
     - an armada that could easily have conquered the region, if his heart
     had been set on that course.  Zheng had come not to invade by force of
     arms but to extend the hand of friendship.  One hundred years later the
     Portuguese came with 800 troops and only around a dozen ships and
     conquered Malacca for the next 130 years, but we do not like to talk
     about that.

     Today, China is our partner.  The United States is also our partner.
      And this evening I say clearly to our friends from America, from China,
     Russia, India and beyond: we in ASEAN share your values and your
     aspirations, and we urge you to work with us.  It is not about taking
     sides.  We must replace the old bilateralism of the Cold War not with a
     new bilateralism, but a multilateralism that can rise to the task ahead.

     Because war between nations is no longer the greatest threat scenario in
     the region or the world. Instead, we face a new set of asymmetric and
     non-traditional security challenges: human trafficking, terrorism, drug
     smuggling and nuclear proliferation cannot be resolved in isolation or
     through the old security structures of the past.

     We in ASEAN know this, which is why we have in place a range of security
     structures, not just one.  Intra-Asian trade is now valued at around
     $1 trillion.  Linking our economies together in this way is in itself a
     means of actively reducing the possibility of conflicts.  Trade and
     investment are the important building blocks towards peace.  After all,
     why would you wage war on your biggest market?

     As our economies come together, so do our people.  New communication
     technologies and the advent of low-cost airlines are breaking down
     borders, allowing more people to integrate with their near and
     not-so-near neighbours.  

     In my country, Malaysia, integrating many cultures, tongues and
     religions is simply what we do.  It is what we have done for more than
     half a century since independence.  Out of that unity comes stability,
     security and peace.  My own heritage lies with an ethnic group called
     the Bugis.  Our family tree has many branches, wrapped around the
     islands and peninsulas of Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore - a
     geographical spread that came about in part because of our passion for
     seafaring and exploration, but also because of the way we conducted
     ourselves once we arrived in a new land.  Throughout history races and
     peoples have sought out new territory through conquest and oppression,
     but the Bugis have always taken a different approach -falsafah tiga
     hujung, or the philosophy of the `three tips'.  The first is hujung
     lidah.  The second is hujung anu tu, which I will not translate.  The
     third ishujung keris.  It is one that I believe still resonates today.
     Physical conflict - invasion, violence and war - was always the most
     desperate last resort.  Long before taking up arms, the Bugis would
     first use diplomacy - that's the hujung lidah.  They would talk to their
     neighbours, get to know them, try to come to a mutually acceptable
     conclusion.  The next step involved integration, strengthening bonds
     between the Bugis and the other parties through friendship and family. 
     Sometimes this would literally involve marriage.  That is not quite what
     I am proposing today; for one thing, I already have a lovely wife.  In
     our globalised economy, the financial relationships between countries
     bind us together almost as closely as wedding vows.  

     Today, for example, the same waters that my ancestors crossed a thousand
     years ago, and that Zheng sailed back in the 15th century, are some of
     the most important trade routes in the world.  Every year almost 100,000
     ships travel down the Straits of Malacca and more than a quarter of the
     world's traded goods pass through the South China Sea.  If
     transportation links are the lifeblood of international trade, South
     East Asia has become its beating heart and we have a collective
     responsibility to ensure businesses can operate here in safety and
     security.  That is why Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia are already
     working trilaterally, through the `Eye in the Sky' initiative, to combat
     the menace of piracy in the Straits of Malacca - an effective response
     in comparison to the escalating situation in the Horn of Africa.

     The areas where we need to work together are not confined to trade. 
     Post 11 September we are facing a new and uncharted security landscape
     with multiple threat scenarios.  We must meet those challenges
     comprehensively, with resolve and decisiveness, and with no option off
     the table.  We need to start with every nation playing their part in
     securing their own internal borders.  This must be followed by a
     willingness to work together on a bilateral and multilateral basis.

     Malaysia has and will continue to play its role as a responsible global
     citizen, and we have shown and will continue to show that our commitment
     is not merely rhetorical but is backed by action.  In working to secure
     world peace, Malaysian peacekeepers have served under the umbrella of
     both the United Nations and NATO.  From Somalia to the Balkans,
     Malaysian security personnel have made the ultimate sacrifice in the
     service of global stability.  

     Ours is not simply a peacekeeping role.  Malaysia contributes in many
     ways, sometimes rather unexpected ways - for example in Afghanistan,
     where we are playing our part in the country's rehabilitation by sending
     much-needed female Muslim doctors.  In the fight against global
     terrorism, we have also been an active player, pro-active in ensuring
     that Malaysia becomes neither a hotbed nor a transit point for terrorist
     operations.  And either actively or through the sharing of intelligence
     with regional security apparatus, we have helped with the apprehension
     or elimination of terrorists like Mas Selamat, Dr Azahari and Noordin
     Mat Top.
     In the southern Philippines, Malaysia has put in an international
     monitoring team and acted as an intermediary by hosting peace talks
     between the Philippines government and the Moro Islamic Liberation
     Front.  This has at times been a sensitive issue for us, but we are
     committed to taking the lead in the interests of wider stability and
     peace.  In southern Thailand, we have signalled our willingness to help
     with the socio-economic development of the four provinces with
     substantial Muslim populations.  Bilaterally, we are working with the
     United States to combat crimes like drug trafficking, terrorism and
     fraud; and with Australia, to tackle the issue of asylum seekers and to
     foster stability right across our region.
     Multilaterally, we are working to enforce the UN Security Council
     resolution on the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction
     through our new Strategic Trade Act.  I am determined that we will play
     our part as a responsible member of the international and regional
     community and that, in the spirit of the 1995 declaration, we will
     together make ASEAN a nuclear-free zone.

     We simply cannot allow our important work together to be derailed by
     tensions or destabilised by disagreements and disputes.  With Thailand
     and Cambodia currently at the Hague, our region knows only too well how
     deadly such clashes can be.  In this case, there is of course the good
     and bad news.  The bad news is that 16 people lost their lives.  The
     good news is that both sides are now talking.  We all have high hopes
     for an imminent resolution.

     Of course difficulties between neighbours will flare up from time to
     time but, in our region, significant progress has in fact been made in
     settling some of these disputes over the years.   China and Russia were
     able to resolve their land border, at 4,300 kilometres the longest in
     the world, in 2008.  Vietnam and China completed their land border
     demarcation in that same year.
     In Malaysia we have long tried to negotiate our border disputes in a
     spirit of consultation and negotiations.  With Thailand, for example, we
     created a joint development area, with both countries agreeing to share
     mineral resources.  With Singapore, a peaceful and diplomatic appeal to
     the International Court of Justice resulted in an amicable ruling that
     was accepted by both sides.  With Brunei, a solution was found on the
     basis of a mutually beneficial formula, with a production-sharing
     agreement put into place.
     I hope that all border disputes can be resolved in that same spirit of
     mutual respect and co-operation.  I am also optimistic that ASEAN and
     China will soon be able to agree on a more binding code of conduct to
     replace the 2002 Declaration of Conduct in the South China Sea.  The
     overlapping claims in the South China Sea, involving six parties, are
     particularly complex, but they have generally been managed with
     remarkable restraint.  We must never allow our disagreement on this
     issue to escalate beyond the diplomatic realm.  All parties must remain
     steadfast in their resolve to find a peaceful resolution to this
     dispute.  Yes, while I remain fully committed to the common ASEAN
     position in terms of our engagement with China on the South China Sea, I
     am equally determined to ensure our bilateral relationship remains
     unaffected and, in fact, continues to go from strength to strength.  
     This is the way forward: dialogue, engagement, consensus.  Those are the
     values enshrined in the declaration of the Zone of Peace, Freedom and
     Neutrality signed by the founding ASEAN member states in 1971, when my
     father was Prime Minister of Malaysia, and in the Treaty of Amity and
     Co-operation since then.

     Let me now share with you my thoughts on six practical principles that
     might underpin the notion of effective co-operation in our region. 
     Firstly, it is extremely important for such multi-state engagement to
     fully recognise the role of each member state, rich or poor, small or
     big.  Secondly, we must appreciate that every member country is
     different in terms of history, culture and its economic position. 
     Thirdly, confidence-building measures need to be put in place to foster
     deeper dialogue and understanding between partners.  Fourthly, we need a
     web of different forms of security architecture, not only regional and
     with the co-operation of extra-regional powers but also within the
     context of bilateral arrangements.  Fifthly, there need to be
     institutional relationships - relationships not just at the highest
     levels, but also between our different institutions.  

     A significant degree of regional and global co-operation already exists,
     and building upon this will draw the major players closer towards each
     other.  Indeed, regional processes such as the ASEAN Regional Forum and
     the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus 8 are already actively
     exploring co-operation in disaster relief and humanitarian assistance. 
     I would like to call today for the establishment of a regional
     humanitarian body, a new rapid-response team with the ability to respond
     to disaster when it strikes.  These activities are especially relevant
     because they foster direct interaction between the defence and security
     agencies of different countries, going beyond formal declarations and
     high-level dialogues to coordinated operations on the ground.  

     Establishing the ARF was one of the most far-sighted and bold
     initiatives our regional community has taken to strengthen peace and
     foster stability - inclusive in nature and embracing countries of all
     political hues.  We have been a little slow, though, in making progress
     on our agenda of building confidence, security contacts and of
     preventive diplomacy.  It is clear that the ARF, complemented by the
     ADMM+8, has to make greater haste and show stronger political resolve on
     all sides, but in building new alliances and forging new security
     contacts we should not forget the old ones, like the Fire Power Defence
     Arrangement.

     As I said earlier, we should not be surprised when we encounter
     problems, which brings me to my sixth and final point: that far from
     letting these difficulties knock us off course, we must build on all we
     have achieved together to not only manage such disputes, but to resolve
     them.  Now more than ever, we need to focus on the bigger picture and
     not become blinkered by our own concerns.

     In Islam we have a concept, wasatiyyah, which means moderation or
     `justly balanced'.  It is this spirit of moderation that has made
     Malaysia the country it is today, and that I believe will now be the key
     to overcoming the challenges we face together as a region.  That is why,
     at the United Nations last year, I called for a new global movement of
     the moderates that would see government, business and religious leaders
     around the world face down extremism wherever it is found.  Just as you
     cannot make the world a better place by passing a law proclaiming that
     it will be better, you cannot rid the world of extreme views simply by
     making them illegal.  I have no doubt we can best foster tolerance and
     understanding not by silencing the voice of hatred, but by making the
     voice of reason louder and louder.  

     Since our discussions and deliberations 10 years ago, this forum has
     always been a lot more than a talking shop.  It has been about fostering
     clear-headed, practical security and defence co-operation.  I believe
     that the movement of the moderates can be a similarly constructive
     expression of our common values.  The great challenge before us as
     nations is how to secure the blessings of liberty and prosperity for our
     people in an uncertain world.  How do we chart a better future for our
     children?  How do we advance the welfare of our people and solve the
     great problems of our times?  The answers lie in coming together and in
     collectively bringing our will and resources to bear.  

     As responsible leaders, we cannot and should not squander the
     opportunity before us to help build a new world order, where a just and
     equitable peace predicated on the rule of law is the norm rather than
     the exception.  We know that governments that do not practice good
     governance are existing on borrowed time.  We must ensure peace and
     stability at all levels - national, regional and global.  To achieve
     that goal, let us continue to engage each other in a constant dialogue
     for, in the words of Winston Churchill, `jaw-jaw is better than
     war-war'.  I thank you.
     http://www.iiss.org/conferences/the-shangri-la-dialogue/shangri-la-dialogue-2011/speeches/keynote-address/dato-sri-najib-tun-raza/

      

      

     Military ties between the United States and Malaysia remain strong and
     will continue to strengthen, said US Pacific Command commander Admiral
     Robert F. Willard.

     .       Willard said he discussed matters of mutual interest with
     Malaysian Armed Forces chief Jeneral Tan Sri Azizan Ariffin.

     .       "We explored new ways in which armed forces of the two countries
     can help contribute to security in the Asia Pacific region," he told
     reporters after delivering a talk entitled "Securing the Maritime
     Commons: The Role of Regional Navies" at a hotel here yesterday.

     .       "I think it's important that Malaysia decides how and where the
     military co-operation expands and improves," said Willard who was here
     [Kuala Lumpur] as a speaker at the 25th Asia-Pacific Roundtable
     yesterday.

     .       Willard said there were many areas that the Malaysian armed
     forces could contribute regionally beyond maritime security

     .       He pointed out that Malaysia's participation in the
     multinational "Cobra Gold" exercise in Thailand at an increased level as
     a positive move.

      

     Speech to 25th Asia-Pacific Roundtable; "Securing the Maritime Commons:
     The Role of Regional Navies"

     By Admiral Robert F. Willard, Commander, U.S. Pacific Command 
     Kuala Lumpur Malaysia

     .       
     CONSIDER THE ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM, THAT TODAY REGULARLY LEADS 
     MULTI-NATIONAL SECURITY EXERCISES TO "PROMOTE PEACE AND SECURITY THROUGH
     DIALOGUE AND COOPERATION IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC" EVOLUTIONS THAT INVOLVE A
     HOST OF REGIONAL MILITARIES, AND NAVIES, AND THOUSANDS OF PARTICIPANTS
     INCLUDING U.S. PACIFIC COMMAND.

     .        AND IN RECENT YEARS, HAS FOCUSSED ON THE VERY TOPIC WE'RE GOING
     TO DISCUSS TODAY SECURITY IN THE MARITIME COMMONS.

     .        AS A TESTAMENT TO THE IMPORTANCE THE U.S. HAS ATTACHED TO
     ASEAN, WE NOW HAVE A DEDICATED AMBASSADOR IN DAVID CARDEN ... WHO WE
     HOPE WILL BE EMBRACED BY THE ASEAN COMMUNITY

     .        [Straight of Malacca's importance. ] AND YET, IT'S JUST ONE OF
     A DOZEN STRATEGIC STRAITS IN THE ASIA PACIFIC. ALL IMPORTANT FOR THE SEA
     LANES THAT PASS THROUGH THEM ... ALL OF WHICH HAVE BEEN FOUGHT OVER
     THROUGHOUT HISTORY. ALL OF WHICH MUST BE MAINTAINED SECURE IF THE
     COMMERCE UPON WHICH WE DEPEND IS TO MOVE GOODS, UNIMPEDED.

      

     .        I MIGHT OFFER THAT INCREASINGLY IN THE 21ST CENTURY, SECURITY
     IN ALL DOMAINS - LAND, AIR, SPACE, CYBERSPACE AND MARITIME - WILL BE
     NECESSARY TO ENABLE THE FREEDOMS OF ACTION THAT ARE FUNDAMENTAL TO
     GLOBAL PROSPERITY IN THIS ERA.

      

     .        DOMAIN SECURITY - PARTICULARLY MARITIME SECURITY - IS THE
     QUINTESSENTIAL COMMON CAUSE  AMONG NATIONS.

     .        NOT ONLY FOR THEIR NAVIES BUT, FOR THE ABUNDANCE OF AGENCIES
     THAT CONTRIBUTE TO SECURITY, ACROSS A BROAD RANGE OF CHALLENGES.

     .        COAST GUARDS OR THEIR EQUIVALENT, WITH LAW ENFORCEMENT DUTIES,
     IN PARTICULAR, CAN CHALLENGE ILLEGAL ENCROACHMENT AND CRIMINAL
     ACTIVITIES THAT NAVIES MAY NOT.

     .        ATTAINMENT OF MARITIME DOMAIN AWARENESS - ESSENTIAL TO SECURITY
     OPERATIONS - REQUIRES WHOLE-OF-GOVERNMENT COLLABORATION BOTH WITHIN AND
     ACROSS OUR NATIONS.

     .        ACROSS GOVERNMENTS, JUDICIARY, COMMERCE, TRANSPORTATION,
     TREASURY AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS AGENCIES ALL PLAY KEY ROLES IN ASSURING
     MARITIME SECURITY.

     .       
     AND LAST, BUT CERTAINLY NOT LEAST, TO DISPUTES EITHER ON, OR PROXIMATE
     TO THE MARITIME SEA LANES THAT COULD OTHERWISE FLASH INTO CONFLICT AND
     DISRUPT THE PEACEFUL FLOWS OF COMMERCE THAT MUST BE SECURED.

     .        ASSOCIATIONS SUCH AS ASEAN PLAY A PIVOTAL ROLE IN THIS.

     .        ASEAN AND OTHER MULTI-NATION FORUMS SUCH AS SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE
     PROVIDE OPPORTUNITIES FOR NATIONS TO FRAME THE CHALLENGES, SEEK COMMON
     AND EFFECTIVE APPROACHES TO THEM, AND CONDUCT RESPECTFUL DISCOURSE WHEN
     NATIONS DISAGREE.

     .       
     I MENTIONED THE SUCCESSFUL MULTI-NATIONAL EVENTS THE ASEAN REGIONAL
     FORUM REGULARLY LEADS.

     .        IN MARCH THE FORUM LED A DISASTER RESPONSE EXERCISE IN
     INDONESIA, WHICH WAS THE SECOND IN A SERIES THAT BEGAN IN THE
     PHILIPPINES IN 2009.

     .        THIS YEAR'S EVENT STRENGTHENED CONFIDENCE AND INCREASED
     INTEROPERABILITY AMONG THE CIVIL AND MILITARY AGENCIES AND ADVANCED
     REGIONAL CAPACITIES TO PROVIDE COORDINATED AND EFFECTIVE DISASTER
     RESPONSE.

     .        MULTI-NATIONAL PLANNING AND TRAINING EVENTS LIKE THIS ARE
     REMINDERS THAT THE NATIONS OF THE ASIA-PACIFIC ASSUME  A SECURE AND
     ACCESSIBLE MARITIME DOMAIN TO EFFECTIVELY PREPARE FOR, OR RESPOND TO
     NATURAL DISASTERS.

     .        AS WAS DEMONSTRATED EARLIER IN THE YEAR IN JAPAN, FOLLOWING THE
     CONFLUENCE OF EARTHQUAKES, TSUNAMI, AND NUCLEAR ACCIDENTS.

     .        THE INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE - BY A HUNDRED NATIONS AND ALMOST
     TWO DOZEN MILITARIES - CLEARLY DEMONSTRATED THE IMPORTANCE OF
     COOPERATION AND INTEROPERABILITY.

     .        IN CLOSING, I'D ASK YOU TO IMAGINE AN ASIA-PACIFIC WHERE
     SECURITY PREVAILS ACROSS THE GLOBAL COMMONS AND WHERE ACCESS IS
     UNINHIBITED.

     .        A REGION WHERE THERE ARE NO TERRITORIAL DISPUTES OR, IF ONE
     ARISES, IT IS RESOLVED PEACEFULLY AND EQUITABLY WITHIN AN AGREED UPON
     FRAMEWORK.

     .      
     http://www.pacom.mil/web/Site_Pages/Media/News_2011/05/31-Speech-by-adm_willard-25thAsia-pacific-roundtable.shtml

      

      

     Obama admin warm-up to Malaysia --
     http://www.eastwestcenter.org/fileadmin/stored/pdfs/apb081.pdf

     .       Obama as `pacific president' and reaching out to Muslims

     .       US stepping up engagement with ASEAN (treaty of amity/coop, plus
     sending ambassador), joining ADMM+ , and EAS

     .       Obama-Najib bilateral at Nuclear Security Summit

     .       Clinton and Gates visit - 2010

     o    Met with Dep PM Muhyiddin Yassin

     o    Spoke as Islamic center to talk about Malaysia being a leader of
     Islamic modernity

     o    Expand cooperation on education, medicine, new tech

     o    Complained about Anwar

     .       Malaysia send 40-member medical team to Afghanistan at request
     of Afghan govt.

     .       Malaysia passes Strategic Trade Act 2010 - halt transshipment of
     WMD-related goods

     .       Malaysia joins TPP talks

      

     TIMELINE OF RECENT COOPERATION

     May 2011

     USS Avenger Builds Ties with Malaysian Navy -
     http://www.pacom.mil/web/Site_Pages/Media/News_2011/05/16-USSAvenger-builds-ties-w_malaysian_navy.shtml

     .       Malaysian officers Lt. Lim Kim Tat and Lt. Mohd Hafiz bin Atan
     had the opportunity to observe Avenger Sailors in a sea and anchor
     evolution, observe an integrated training drill, learn about mine
     sweeping operations and see a traditional U.S. Navy "crossing the line"
     ceremony.

     .       Ensign Garth Thomas gave the two Malaysian naval officers a tour
     of the ship's mine sweeping capabilities and discussed with Tat and Atan
     how the Malaysian navy performs mine sweeping operations.

     .       Throughout several damage control and integrated training
     drills, Avenger officers and enlisted personnel helped explain the
     significance of specific methods the U.S. Navy uses in training Sailors.

     .       According to State Department officials, Malaysia has made
     regional cooperation a central piece of it's foreign policy. Cooperation
     between the 7th Fleet and Malaysian navy in anti-piracy efforts has
     contributed to the recent decline in pirate attacks in the Straits of
     Malacca,

     .        

      

      

     May 2011 - joint training for Malaysian and Thai maritime enforcement
     officers - http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v5/newsindex.php?id=585371

      

     April 2011

      

     http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/2011/04/29/navy-assures-sabahans-of-safe-coasts/
     KOTA KINABALU: The waters surrounding Sabah are now safe and free from
     piracy or terrorist attacks, according to the Royal Malaysian Navy
     (TLDM) Regional Two Commander First Admiral Anuwi Hassan.

     .       "Although Sabah is safe from any threats, we will continue to
     deploy our men to strategic locations which we believe may be used by
     pirates or terrorist for their activities.

     .        Anuwi was speaking to the press during the 77th Navy Day
     celebration that was held at the Sepanggar Naval Base here on Wednesday.

     .        Fishermen, especially on the east coast of the state where
     Sabah shares a maritime border with the Philippines, have frequently
     complained of acts of piracy and robberies at sea for several years now.

     .        Early last year, two businessmen operating a business on an
     island were taken hostage by whom the government authorities labelled as
     `bandits' but security experts said could be linked to terrorist
     activities in the Southern Philippines.

     .        They were released at the end of last year.

     .        Anuwi also said the TLDM will receive six Littoral Combatant
     Ships and two training ships under the 10th Malaysian Plan. He said the
     vessels would be built in the country and are expected to be ready by
     2013.

     .        "Some of the ships will be based here at the Sepanggar Naval
     Based," he said, adding that more assets are needed to strengthen and
     protect the country from any threats or conflicts.

      

      

      

     Feb 2011

     .       USS Abraham Lincoln - Aircraft from USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72)
     Carrier Strike Group participated in a joint aerial combat training
     exercise with the Royal Malaysian Air Force, Feb 14.

      

     .       F/A-18 Hornets and Super Hornets from Carrier Air Wing (CVW)2
     joined Malaysian SU-30 and FA-18D Hornets to train in multiple combat
     scenarios. Events ranged from single aircraft engaging single aircraft,
     all the way to complex multi-aircraft combat scenarios.

      

     .       With the Malaysian SU-30s maneuvering at speeds estimated close
     to MACH 1, training was aggressive and realistic.

      

     .       "Air Combat Training gives our aviators a chance to match their
     skills against the skills of some formidable foreign aviators and their
     modern aircraft. An added benefit is promoting regional partnerships and
     improving maritime security," said Lt. Luke Swain of CVW-2.

      

     .       The United States and Malaysia share a diverse and expanding
     partnership and cooperate closely on a number of security matters,
     including counterterrorism, maritime domain awareness, and regional
     stability.

     .       The Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group is currently in the
     U.S. 7th Fleet's area of responsibility as part of a routine deployment

      

     Feb 2011 -- Malaysia will for the first time take part in the annual
     Cobra Gold joint military exercise this year, in which nearly 10,000
     soldiers of six countries will participate, a military source said.

     .        Cobra Gold 2011, the 30th of its kind, will be carried out
     between Feb 7-18 in northern Thailand under the jurisdiction of the 3rd
     Army Region.

     .        13 soldiers from Malaysia

     .       Malaysia, formerly an observer, will join the exercise for the
     first time as a participant in the command post exercise (CPX). 

     .       In the last part of Cobra Gold 2011 there will be a landing
     exercise under live fire at Sattahip in Chon Buri province by  Thai and
     US marines.  The exercise is codenamed PHIBTRAEX.

     .         

      

     Jan 2011 - PORT KLANG, Malaysia - USS Carl Vinson (CVN) and Carrier Air
     Wing (CVW) 17 Sailors visited

      

      

 --
 Matt Gertken
 Senior Asia Pacific analyst
 US: +001.512.744.4085
 Mobile: +33(0)67.793.2417
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com


 --
 Matt Gertken
 Senior Asia Pacific analyst
 US: +001.512.744.4085
 Mobile: +33(0)67.793.2417
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-06-08 13:33:05</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/72358_re-discussion-us-malaysia-evolving-strategic-cooperation-.html</permalink>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>72920</id>
    <title>Re: [MESA] [TACTICAL] WikiLeaks: U.S. saw Israeli firm's rise in
 Latin America as a threat
</title>
    <description>   The proliferation of Israeli front companies is the reason Israel is the #
   1 FCI threat. 

   On 6/1/2011 2:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

     WASHINGTON - A security company led by the former head of operations for
     the Israeli military made such inroads into Latin America a few years
     ago that U.S. diplomats saw it as a security risk and moved to thwart
     the company's expansion, U.S. diplomatic cables show.

     The diplomats' efforts were made easier when an interpreter for the
     Israeli firm, Global CST, was caught peddling classified Colombian
     Defense Ministry documents to Marxist guerrillas seeking to topple the
     state, one cable said.

     Still, the ability of the Israeli security consultancy to obtain
     contracts in Colombia, Peru and Panama in rapid succession speaks to the
     prowess of retired Israeli military officers in peddling security
     know-how amid perceptions that they'd bring better results than official
     U.S. government assistance.

     At one point, Panama's intelligence chief threatened to rely more
     heavily on the Israelis out of anger that U.S. officials wouldn't tap
     the phones of the president's political enemies, according to then
     cables. U.S. officials countered that such an arrangement would threaten
     all security cooperation with Panama, and the Panamanians backed down.

     Colombia was the first Latin nation to sign a contract with Global CST,
     doing so in late 2006, according to one cable, the same year its
     founder, Maj. Gen. Israel Ziv, retired as head of the operations
     directorate of the Israel Defense Forces.

     Ziv "was a personal acquaintance of then-Minister of Defense Juan Manuel
     Santos," the cable said. Santos is now Colombia's president.

     Ziv's consulting firm pledged "a strategic assessment" that would devise
     a plan to defeat "internal terrorist and criminal organizations by
     2010," the cable, sent in late 2009, said. The exercise was named
     "Strategic Leap."

     "Over a three-year period, Ziv worked his way into the confidence of
     former Defense Minister Santos by promising a cheaper version of USG
     (U.S. government) assistance without our strings attached," the cable
     said.

     Colombia began working with a variety of retired and active duty Israeli
     officers "with special operations and military intelligence
     backgrounds," another cable said. By 2007, 38 percent of Colombia's
     foreign defense purchases were going to Israel, it added.

     With a foot firmly in the door in Colombia, Ziv roamed the region, going
     next to Peru, a coca-producing nation that also faced security
     challenges.

     Ziv told Peruvian authorities that Global CST's had played an advisory
     role in a spectacular jungle raid on a rebel camp in Colombia a year
     earlier that freed former presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt,
     three U.S. military contractors and 11 Colombian police and soldiers.
     Colombia denies that Global CST played a role in the raid.

     The Israeli firm signed a one-year contract worth $9 million to help
     Peru defeat the Maoist Sendero Luminoso insurgency "once and for all" in
     that nation's remote Apurimac and Ene river valleys, according to
     another U.S. cable.

     When Global CST approached Panama's government about expanding on an
     initial contract, red flags went up at the U.S. Embassy there.

     In early 2010, an Embassy cable to Washington said Panama had already
     paid Global CST for a small security study but the nation's intelligence
     chief, Olmedo Alfaro, was threatening to rely more heavily on the
     Israelis out of anger that U.S. officials would not tap the phones of
     the president's political enemies.

     "Alfaro is increasingly open about his agenda to replace U.S. law
     enforcement and security support with Israelis and others," the cable
     said, adding that the move "bodes ill" for quelling narcotics activity
     and crime in Panama.

     U.S. officials told the Panamanians that they would limit security
     cooperation and intelligence sharing if private consultants from a third
     nation were involved.

     "In a meeting with then-U.S. Ambassador to Panama Barbara Stephenson,
     Panamanian Vice President Juan Carlos Varela said that the government
     "would not let Israeli influence damage the U.S.-Panama relationship," a
     cable said.

     President Ricardo Martinelli "was similarly taken aback, and emphasized
     that he did not want to endanger relations with the USG, saying 'We
     don't want to change friends,'" the cable said.

     Adding to the pressure on Panama was news that Colombia's relations with
     Global CST had soured. In a meeting in late 2009 with the then-U.S.
     Ambassador to Colombia, William Brownfield, national police chief Oscar
     Naranjo complained that the company had turned out to be a "disaster," a
     cable said.

     The same cable reported that then-Defense Minister Gabriel Silva
     overruled a planned Colombian army purchase of Israeli-made Hermes-450
     unmanned aerial vehicles, in part because of the nation's "mixed"
     experience with Global CST.

     Silva is now Colombia's ambassador to the U.S. His office didn't respond
     to several written and telephone messages for comment.

     Colombia's souring on the Israeli firm was partly because of U.S. rules
     that barred intelligence sharing, but also because Colombian police told
     them in February 2008 "that a Global CST interpreter, Argentine-born
     Israeli national Shai Killman, had made copies of classified Colombian
     Defense Ministry documents in an unsuccessful attempt to sell them to
     the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) through contacts in
     Ecuador and Argentina," the cable said.

     The pilfered documents allegedly contained information about top
     criminals the Colombians were targeting, the cable said.

     "Ziv denied this attempt and sent Killman back to Israel," it added.

     In early April, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz reached Killman and
     reported that he said he "was being 'slandered' and no such incident
     ever took place."

     The cable went on to say that Ziv's proposals for Colombia "seem
     designed more to support Israeli equipment and services sales than to
     meet in-country needs." It added that Colombia realized that "their
     deals are not as good as advertised."

     It wasn't just in Latin America where Ziv and his company pledged quick
     fix-its for acute security problems. The company, based in a city east
     of Tel Aviv, would also work in Togo, Guinea, Gabon and Nigeria, as well
     as in Eastern Europe. Last year, the Israeli government fined Global CST
     for negotiating to sell weapons and military training to Guinea's
     military junta.

     Read more:
     http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/05/09/113919/wikileaks-us-saw-israeli-firms.html#ixzz1O3LbVCyR
</description>
    <date>2011-06-01 21:13:10</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 23:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/72920_re-mesa-tactical-wikileaks-u-s-saw-israeli-firm-s-rise-in.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:mesa@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>75005</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - TURKEY - civil-military relations, US-Turkey and Turkey-Israel defense relations
</title>
    <description>   PUBLICATION: background/analysis - do not share specific insight with
   other Turkish sources (dont want to get source in trouble)
   ATTRIBUTION: N/A
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Turkish air force captain in DC for training on F-35
   joint strike fighter
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY:  B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: high
   SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:  secure
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
   Including a lot of background here to provide context, please read through
   to get the full gist
   BACKGROUND -- I was the captain's guest to an event at the Turkish embassy
   to commemorate the death of Ataturk. There I met with a lot of people (who
   were all familiar with and proud of stratfor), including the ambassador
   and defense attache. The captain's good friend is the Chief Inspector
   (also pretty young, around 30), who basically accompanies the ambassador
   everywhere and is responsible for security of the embassy and residence.
   Coming from a security/intel/military background, he was keeping an eye on
   me and asking me a lot of questions throughout the night. His wife has
   been working in the ministry of defense. Both of them went out to dinner
   with us after the event. The Chief Inspector was telliing the captain
   half-jokingly to not reveal everything and cut him off when he was telling
   me about the F-35 simulation he's doing next week in Ohio. I suspect the
   CI came out to dinner to keep an eye on him.
   CIVIL-MILITARY DIVIDE - My main goal for the night was to get a better
   read on civil-military relations in Turkey, and I definitely got some
   interesting perspective. One thing I found really interesting was how
   practically everyone I spoke with, particularly in the military, would ask
   me very bluntly "what do you think about Turkish foreign policy?  do you
   think we are doing a good job? Is it strong?"   Everyone seemed very
   concerned about what others think about how Turkey is behaving. The
   military is visibly very uncomfortable with the manner in which Turkey is
   conducting its foreign policy. They like the idea of Turkey's influence
   expanding, and they are fiercely proud of that, BUT they are very visibly
   nervous about the Islamic overtones of the strategy.
   There is an extremely noticeable divide between the civilians and military
   personnel. The ambassador would intentionally avoid speaking at length
   with the military guys and was on occasion a bit rude to them, and when
   the ambassador was out of sight, the military guys would criticize him,
   saying he doesn't understand that the military is the core of the nation
   and doesn't even have 'real diplomatic skills'. One even told me, 'look at
   the way he talks, he can barely hold a real conversation'. A rumor was
   going around that night that the ambassador was soon to be replaced, but
   the Counselor at the embassy (who is a huge fan of stratfor) said that's
   all gossip and that the ambassador will be staying for a long time. 
   I brought up the issue of the army colonel who is now being tried in a
   civilian court for attempting a coup against the government. This is a
   huge issue in Turkey right now. The Ergenekon probe is understood to be a
   tool that AKP uses to keep military in check. This is why (As we wrote in
   our analysis) it was extremely suspicious that a letter with the alleged
   signature of the colonel implicating him in a coup plot magically emerged
   right when the military started making noise over the AKP's moves to
   accept the surrender of PKK militants. The military is very uncomfortable
   with the Kurdish initiative. As one military officer put it to me, how
   would you Americans feel if Obama all of a sudden agreed to reintegrate
   the al Qaeda 9/11 bombers into American society?
   US- TURKEY RELATIONS - The Chief Inspector asked me point-blank - "What do
   you know about Ergenekon?" I told him I think it's a tool the AKP uses to
   clip the military's wings. Arrests of generals and colonels like this
   would be unheard of years ago. He then asked, "you don't think they have
   outside support?" I asked, "from whom?" He shrugged and said, who knows?
   the American government?"  In this (rather tense conversation), I
   definitely got the feeling that these military guys are deeply suspicious
   that the US is aiding the AKP in circumscribing the military's powers.
   Later, when the chief inspector wasn't there, the captain opened up after
   a few drinks and said that they believe the US wants to work with the
   Turkish military, BUT that the US wants to "manipulate" the Turkish
   military, ie. keep it weak so it can follow the US agenda in the region.
   He said this in all seriousness, and it reminded me of what he had said in
   our last meeting about how the US was holding back critical intelligence
   on PKK in northern Iraq when he was conducting those bombing raids. In
   short, you can definitely sense a lot of distrust that the Turkish
   military has for the US right now.
   ******* At the end of the night (chief inspector and wife were gone,
   captain had a few drinks and was in confessional mode), I pressed him to
   explain to me why the military isn't doing more then to counter the AKP if
   they're so obviously uncomfortable with the direction things are going.
   Every military person I talked to admitted that under AKP, the military's
   powers have weakened considerably. His response was that his country's
   generals are excellent actors. When i asked what he meant, he said they
   say all the right things and make it appear that they are really doing
   everything they can to block the AKP's moves on these various issue when
   in reality, they do nothing. He said, 'look, I am an officer right now.
   And right now in the Turkish government and military, you have the scum of
   the earth that have risen to the top" In other words, he was saying that
   everyone at the top were corrupt, had lost their vision. He went on about
   how Gul's and Erdogan's families have all this money that no one can
   explain and also criticized the generals who had become "too comfortable."
    He said if several years from now i become a general i hope i will not
   lose sight of what's right for Turkey. He even mentioned the potential for
   a "revolution" (pretty risky words for a captain). I asked if others like
   him are thinking like that and he said 'i think so' Then after a pause he
   said, "didn't Ataturk start a revolution?'  We left it at that.
   He also described how there is little the military can do right now. The
   AKP has support of the people and they will have that support as long as
   the economy remains strong. The military can't go against that. He says,
   'what are we going to do? launch a coup d'etat? the 1980 coup in Turkey is
   what created the rise of the AKP. I dont look at causes of coups, i look
   at the results. The AKP is the result of that coup'
   He kept saying that there is no middle class in Turkey and how big of an
   issue that is. Military officers don't get paid nearly as much as they
   should. He said for him he can make $3k/month, but most of his pilots make
   $1500/k...'that's nothing. in the private airlines you can make triple the
   amount. 
   Earlier, we were talking about the AKP's Islamic policies. What I found
   really interesting was how the military officers referred to both AKP and
   Gulen as "fundamentalists." The AKP was describing to me how it is against
   Turkish law to have fundamentalists in the military, so if the military
   brands someone as an Islamist fundamentalist, then the charge against him
   must be approved by the civilian government. but under the AKP, the
   government has rejected the military's attempts to boot out the
   'fundamentalists'. They spoke of an increasing fundamentalist presence in
   the military. This is probably exaggerated, but very eye-opening in terms
   of the military's anxiety toward the AKP.  They did not hide the fact that
   they detest Gulen movement and asked me everything i know about them.
   TURKEY-ISRAEL DEFENSE TIES -- 
   I asked the captain how close Turkish-Israeli defense ties are now given
   the political tensions we've been seeing. He says the ties between the
   military industrial complex are still very strong. Turkey provides the
   money for the research, the Israelis develop it and then they sell it for
   10x the amount. Not a bad business.
   To get a better sense of Turkish-Israeli cooperation, I asked again about
   the Israeli strike on the SYrian nuclear site in 2007. He insists that
   Turkey was not notified of the strike beforehand and that he had a
   discussion with the air force chief of staff the day it happened. Without
   a doubt, Turkey did not know about it. I guess I appeared doubtful because
   after hesitating a bit he said that that the Israeli jets flew in Turkey's
   blind spot. I asked him to explain, and he said that they had a hole in
   their air defense, which Israel exploited. Now, he says, that's fixed and
   they deploy forces every 15 days to patrol the area. 
   The captain will be in Ohio next week for simulation training on the F-35.
   He is very frustrated not being able to have more fly time and loves to
   get into technical detail in explaining what he does (so nate, if we have
   any technical questions, he's our man). he described how costly it is for
   them to maintain their couresies (i probably am way off on what this term
   is or how it's spelled), but essentially he was talking about how every
   F-16 flight is $15k and the cost of dropping munitions, etc, and how they
   have to fly with a co-pilot if they haven't flown in 6 mo. v. 1 yr, etc.
   INTERESTING OBSERVATIONS
   Turkey is a country full of contradictions. You see it in everything. For
   example, even as the Chief Inspector (who comes from a military
   background) was telling me how much he dislikes his boss (the ambassador),
   he would refer to the ambassador as his father when we were driving past
   the residence and he wanted to show me where 'his father lives'. Another
   example -- the air force captain would tell me privately that he is Alevi,
   his father is a Kurd, his grandmother was raised by Armenians and his
   cousin is a Kurdish Jew, but first and foremost he is always Turkish, no
   question. He would try to explain to me how intermarriage between Kurds
   and Turks is common, but people dont talk about it. He said specifically
   that others in the embassy don't know this about him and asked me not to
   say anything about it. Indeed, when we were with the Chief Inspector or
   anyone else, the captain would noticeably amplify the anti-Kurdish,
   anti-Armenian, pro-Turkish nationalist rhetoric.  "There is no such thing
   as Armenian genocide", "You know a Kurd? Where? Can I kill him?", etc.
    They also dont like the idea of other languages having influence on the
   'pure' Turkish language...any similarities to Arabic or Farsi were viewed
   as polluting the language. And according to them, the Kurds dont even have
   a real language.
   Also, dear God, Ataturk is EVERYWHERE. I had never seen such gigantic
   statues of Ataturk's face everywhere I walked in that embassy. It's
   amazing how much Turks idolize their founding father. The event began with
   a historical tribute to him. When people would refer to Ataturk, others
   would always correct anyone if they didn't say the full title - Mustafa
   Kemal PASHA Ataturk. I saw women wearing huge gold medallions around their
   necks with Ataturk's face engraved. The captain told me how he has a
   speech by Ataturk on his computer that he listens to that still brings
   tears to his eyes and how his mother cries over Ataturk to this day. When
   we were driving away from the embassy in the Chief Inspector's car, the CI
   was saying 'look to your left, look to your right. what statues do you
   see?  Washington, Gandhi, Franklin, etc.). he then said, we keep our
   Ataturk statues inside the embassy, where is safe and where we can protect
   him.
   Fascinating culture. Can't wait to go to Turkey.
</description>
    <date>2009-11-14 20:08:26</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-10 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/75005_insight-turkey-civil-military-relations-us-turkey-and-turkey.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>75703</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - Lebanon - Plans to sabotage elections?
</title>
    <description>     PUBLICATION: background/analysis
     ATTRIBUTION: N/A
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: First part is a Lebanese government source, second
     part is from hezbollah Media source
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY:  C
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
     SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION: 
     SPECIAL HANDLING: n/a

   XXXXX claims that Israel has ordered the execution of the "migration of
   the swallows" operation. This means ordering her agents in Lebanon to exit
   the country immediately. He says most Israeli agents in Lebanon have
   already sought refuge in Cyprus, following the crackdown by Lebanese
   internal security forces on Israeli informers.

   Another source XXXX ridicules these claims. He says the Future Trend of
   Saad Hariri appears to be up to no good. He insists that the HZ-led
   opposition will secure a majority in the forthcoming parliamentary
   elections. Therefore, the Future Trend has a complelling reason to
   obstruct the elections. The best way to do it, in my source's judgement,
   would be to sabotage the elections by planning a significant security
   breach and then blame it on the Israelis. My source says this explains the
   repeated feverish announcements by the government that its security forces
   are dismantling one Israeli espionage network after another. My source
   says HZ is determined to see to it that the elections take place as
   scheduled.
</description>
    <date>2009-05-21 18:18:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-14 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/75703_insight-lebanon-plans-to-sabotage-elections-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>76281</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - GREECE - Situation is evolving
</title>
    <description>   More from my contact, I also agree on the bolded parts

   Latest developments. No co-operation! 
   Papandreou just declared a reshuffling of the government tomorrow -and a
   vote of confidence!
   He  may get the vote of confidence-marginally -and will count that MPs
   that did not topple the government will not abstain from votting the new
   measurew a few days later. Risky business and -this is what is important
   medium term- right now there is widespread doubt about the ability of any
   PASOK governement to implement the measures.
   Difficult to predict what happens next. As you may understand by now, this
   is GREEK politics, like no other! Most likely the outcome of this monkeing
   will not be nice.
   But IMF signaled today (according to FT and our own info) that they are
   going to give their side of the money for the 5th installment by early
   July, even if there is no concrete new package of help for Greece. In
   other words EU-IMF are willing to do almost whatever it takes so that we
   dont go into default right now.
   On the other hand - accidents can happen in such a big goatfuck as this
   one. 
   Best regards- and excuse the french 

   On 6/15/11 10:18 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

     Actually these are much better, organized by most recent at top

     PM and ND leader discuss all-party government, sources claim
         15 Jun 2011 (google says about 26 mins ago)
     http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43171
     Prime Minister George Papandreou held talks with main opposition New
     Democracy leader Antonis Samaras on the telephone on Wednesday, after a
     round of telephone calls with the leaders of the other political parties
     in Parliament. Their conversation lasted roughly 20 minutes.
      
     While an earlier official announcement by ND had refused to disclose the
     content of their talks before Papandreou had expressed his position,
     unnamed sources within the party said that the prime minister had
     described the situation as extremely difficult and that he was prepared
     to consider either an all-party government or a broader alliance
     government.
      
     The same sources said that Samaras did not reject the proposal but made
     it clear that this could not work with Papandreou as prime minister. To
     this, always according to ND sources, Papandreou apparently replied that
     he was not concerned about whether he was prime minister.
      
     Other sources within the party announced that there would be a second
     telephone communication between the two men later on Wednesday
     afternoon.
      
     Samaras has apparently made it a condition that there is a substantial
     renegotiation of the terms of the Memorandum for the loans to Greece, in
     order to agree to an all-party government.
      
     The ND leader, who has been in continuous contact with his closest aides
     since the morning, is expected to head to his party's headquarters in a
     short while. (ANA)

     PM talks with Samaras on the phone
         15 Jun 2011 (google says about 1 hour ago)
     http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43169

     Prime Minister George Papandreou held talks with main opposition New
     Democracy leader Antonis Samaras on the telephone on Wednesday, after a
     round of telephone calls with the leaders of the other political parties
     in Parliament.
      
     Their conversation lasted roughly 20 minutes and ND refused to reveal
     any information concerning their talks before the prime minister
     addresses the public.
      
     Samaras, who has been in continuous contact with his closest aides since
     the morning, was expected to head to his party's headquarters after the
     conversation with Papandreou. (ANA)

     Tsipras calls for immediate elections in phone call with PM
         15 Jun 2011 (google says about 2 hours ago)
     http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43163

     Coalition of the Radical Left (Syriza parliamentary alliance)
     parliamentary group leader Alexis Tsipras on Wednesday called for
     immediate general elections as the only way out for the country, during
     a telephone discussion with Prime Minister George Papandreou, according
     to party sources.
      
     Papandreou called Tsipras after an extraordinary meeting with President
     of the Republic Karolos Papoulias earlier in the day, in the context of
     a round of phone calls to all political party leaders.
      
     Sources said Papandreou reiterated his government's and his own personal
     determination that the Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy Framework programme
     will be passed by parliament, to which Tsipras replied that Syriza
     remained firm in its stance that the Memorandum and the Medium-Term
     programme are catastrophic for the country, and that the only way out,
     and to the benefit of stability in Greece, is immediate recourse to
     general elections.
      
     The same sources said that neither a new meeting of the Council of
     Political Party Leaders nor a one-on-one meeting with Papandreou were
     put forward during the phone discussion.
      
     Tsipras will make statements immediately after the prime minister's
     address to the nation later on Wednesday. (ANA)

     PM meets with President, rumours abound
         by (AthensNewsWeb)             15 Jun 2011 (google says about 3
     hours ago)
     http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43133
     Prime Minister George Papandreou met with the President of the Republic
     Karolos Papoulias, on Wednesday noon, stating that this is a "historic
     moment", while Greek journalists cancelled their 24-hour nationwide
     strike, as rumours abound about the possibility of a coalition
     government or snap elections.
      
     According to government sources, the prime minister will continue on
     Wednesday his round of telephone contacts with the political party
     leaders after his extraordinary meeting with Karolos Papoulias, adding
     that Papandreou had spoken only with Communist Party of Greece (KKE)
     leader Aleka Papariga and Democratic Left leader Fotis Kouvelis before
     the meeting.
      
     This clarification comes as earlier on Wednesday, a statement by
     Papandreou before the meeting with Papoulias that he was in contact with
     the party leaders to seek consensus sparked denials of such telephone
     contacts by ND and Syriza.

      
     Papandreou, the sources continued, would make an address to the people
     later on Wednesday. The government sources left open all prospects, but
     for the time being ruled out snap elections.
      
     Earlier, Pasok MP Ntinos Vrettos asked for the government to resign so
     that a new one would be formed of publicly acclaimed experts and
     politicians.
      
     On Tuesday, Florina MP Giorgos Lianis tendered his resignation as a
     member of Pasok's central committee. Lianis is keeping his parliament
     seat and will continue to serve as an independent, leaving the ruling
     Pasok party with 155 MPs.
      
     In his resignation letter addressed to the Speaker of the Parliament and
     to Prime Minister George Papandreou, Lianis stressed that he does not
     believe anymore in the government's economic policy and that "we [the
     government] have failed and we are forced to hide the truth from the
     people".
      
     Lianis, who started his career as a journalist, was first elected to
     parliament on Pasok's ticket in 1989 and he has served as deputy culture
     minister from 1993 to 1996.
      
     Earlier on Tuesday, Pasok MP for Kozani Alekos Athanasiadis in a radio
     interview said that he would vote against the medium-term programme.
      
     "I will not vote for the medium-term programme and I assume my
     responsibilities," Athanasiadis said.
      
     The government on Thursday tabled in parliament a medium-term fiscal
     strategy framework for the economy envisaging a new round of severe
     austerity measures designed to bring in overall revenues of 28.259
     billion euros by 2015, as well as a 50 billion euros privatisation
     programme. The programme is scheduled to be put to vote in the
     300-member chamber on June 28.

     ND denies reports of Samaras meeting with PM aide
         15 Jun 2011 (google says about 5 hours ago)
     http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43150
     Main opposition New Democracy categorically denied on Wednesday rumours
     appearing on several blogs and websites of a meeting on Tuesday between
     ND leader Antonis Samaras and a representative of Prime Minister George
     Papandreou.
      
     In a statement, ND press officer Yiannis Michelakis called the rumours
     "absurd" and unworthy of denial.
      
     ND further denied any telephone contact whatsoever between Samaras and
     Papandreou. (ANA)

     On 6/15/11 10:05 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

       ND denies reports of Samaras meeting with PM aide
           15 Jun 2011
       http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43150
       Main opposition New Democracy categorically denied on Wednesday
       rumours appearing on several blogs and websites of a meeting on
       Tuesday between ND leader Antonis Samaras and a representative of
       Prime Minister George Papandreou.
        
       In a statement, ND press officer Yiannis Michelakis called the rumours
       "absurd" and unworthy of denial.
        
       ND further denied any telephone contact whatsoever between Samaras and
       Papandreou. (ANA)

       Greek PM Prepared To Step Down To Form Alliance Government Even As
       Opposition's Samaras Demands Substantial MOU Renegotiation
       Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/15/2011 10:50 -0400
       http://www.zerohedge.com/article/greek-pm-prepared-step-down-form-alliance-government-even-oppositions-samaras-demands-substa

       Developments in Athens are to say the least fluid. The latest news out
       of Athens News states that G-Pap is prepared to step down in order to
       form an all-party consensus government with the main opposition party,
       New Democracy. "Prime Minister George Papandreou held talks with main
       opposition New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras on the telephone on
       Wednesday, after a round of telephone calls with the leaders of the
       other political parties in Parliament. Their conversation lasted
       roughly 20 minutes. While an earlier official announcement by ND had
       refused to disclose the content of their talks before Papandreou had
       expressed his position, unnamed sources within the party said that the
       prime minister had described the situation as extremely difficult and
       that he was prepared to consider either an all-party government or a
       broader alliance government. The same sources said that Samaras did
       not reject the proposal but made it clear that this could not work
       with Papandreou as prime minister. To this, always according to ND
       sources, Papandreou apparently replied that he was not concerned about
       whether he was prime minister." And while the political wrangling is
       irrelevant for the rest of the world, what is relevant, especially for
       the ECB which would need a bail out by the Fed should Greece default
       is the following: "Samaras has apparently made it a condition that
       there is a substantial renegotiation of the terms of the Memorandum
       for the loans to Greece, in order to agree to an all-party
       government." Good luck passing that by the Troica. In other words,
       Greece is now in a power vacuum and the worst case outcome for Europe
       appears set to be realized.

       PM and ND leader discuss all-party government, sources claim
       Wednesday, June 15, 2011
       http://greeceforu.blogspot.com/2011/06/pm-and-nd-leader-discuss-all-party.html
       Prime Minister George Papandreou held talks with main opposition New
       Democracy leader Antonis Samaras on the telephone on Wednesday, after
       a round of telephone calls with the leaders of the other political
       parties in Parliament. Their conversation lasted roughly 20 minutes.
        
       While an earlier official announcement by ND had refused to disclose
       the content of their talks before Papandreou had expressed his
       position, unnamed sources within the party said that the prime
       minister had described the situation as extremely difficult and that
       he was prepared to consider either an all-party government or a
       broader alliance government.
        
       The same sources said that Samaras did not reject the proposal but
       made it clear that this could not work with Papandreou as prime
       minister. To this, always according to ND sources, Papandreou
       apparently replied that he was not concerned about whether he was
       prime minister.
        
       Other sources within the party announced that there would be a second
       telephone communication between the two men later on Wednesday
       afternoon.
        
       Samaras has apparently made it a condition that there is a substantial
       renegotiation of the terms of the Memorandum for the loans to Greece,
       in order to agree to an all-party government.
        
       The ND leader, who has been in continuous contact with his closest
       aides since the morning, is expected to head to his party's
       headquarters in a short while.

Greece's Drama: Political Leaders Reject PM's Offer for Consensus

       Posted by keeptalkinggreece in Politics
       http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2011/06/15/greeces-drama-political-leaders-reject-pms-offer-for-consensus/

       Tension is high not only on Syntagma Square but also on the political
       level, as Prime Minister George Papandreou contacted all political
       leaders after his meeting with the President earlier on Wednesday.
       Although it has not been very clear what were the exact proposals
       submitted by the Prime Ministers apart from `consensus' and several
       scenarios circulated, Greek media claim now that all political leaders
       turned down the PM. Newspaper Proto Thema even claims that they told
       him unanimously "George, Go Away!" and demanded early elections. Some
       scenarios speak of a new government withih

       Latest leakages from main opposition centre-right party Nea Dimokratia
       report that ND agrees only to a bipartisan or a ND-PASOK government,
       however with George Papandreou leaving the office of the prime
       minister. Another condition for ND to participate in a government with
       PASOK is the re-negotiation of the Memorandum and the Mid-Term
       Stability Programme.

       Earlier, PASOK-MP Dinos Vrettos asked in a written statement, all
       members of the government to resign and crucial ministerial positions
       to be occupied by non members of PASOK. He also favors a
       re-negotiation of the Mid-Term Package.

       Political leaders and some PASOK deputies seem to bow to the public
       demand, as this has been expressed by the mass protests, that a strict
       austerity without perspective for recovery and an always increasing
       debt does nothing else but impoverish people for the shake of the
       banks and the rescue of the Eurozone.

       George Papandreou is expected to address the public later today.

       keep tuned with "Keep Talking, Greece" and follow our Live Streaming
       and Live Blogging

       On 6/15/11 9:44 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

         More from our confed partner, he is feeding me up to date info. We
         should think about sit-repping this stuff

         Latest info is that Papandreou himself proposed such a change as a
         last ditch effort. It seems we are close to some sort of a deal. A
         prerogative of such a governement will most probably be a
         renegotiation of the measures. But conceivably, since there is no
         time for much bargaining now, first they would pass the measures
         through parliament (so that we can get the money) "in principle" and
         then try to renegotiate some of the measures (taxes mostly)
         proposing a different mix and probably some political "leeway"  from
         the EU
         Its a touchy situation and as I said things are still evolving. I
         dont think we are going to an Argentina scenario at least not at
         this point.
         A national salvation governement backed by 90% of political parties
         is what the EU wanted all along, so I imagine  a lot of give and
         take  is going to happen soon.

         On 6/15/11 9:09 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

           Two more updates on this:

           Another PASOK MP Mr Dinos Vrettos, asked today for a total
           reshuffling of the government , and putting well known
           personalities from a broader spectrum in the new government.

           Papandreou in talks with Samaras about a coalition governement.
           Samaras wants a "national salvation" government without Papandreou
           as  a prime minister ( so that there is a new prime minister of
           wide and common acceptance).

           On 6/15/11 8:21 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

             PUBLICATION: Yes
             SOURCE: EL501
             ATTRIBUTION: Greek media sources
             SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Confed partner
             SOURCE  Reliability : A
             ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
             DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
             SPECIAL HANDLING: Marko

              I havent replyed earlier because the situation  is constantly
             evolving. Yesterday there were two MPs that refused to sign the
             new measures there is a big stike today with some (limited)
             violence going on at the center of Athens and our info is that
             Papandreou is in contact with other political leaders for some
             kind of broader consencus, maybe even some form of coalition
             govewrnement. 
             Will get back to you but the elections scenario is also at the
             forefront if no consencus in reached.
             --
             Marko Papic

             STRATFOR Analyst
             C: + 1-512-905-3091
             marko.papic@stratfor.com

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19

 --
 Marko Papic
 Senior Analyst
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 + 1-512-905-3091 (C)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
 www.stratfor.com
 @marko_papic

 --
 Marko Papic
 Senior Analyst
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 + 1-512-905-3091 (C)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
 www.stratfor.com
 @marko_papic

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com


 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com


 --
 Marko Papic
 Senior Analyst
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 + 1-512-905-3091 (C)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
 www.stratfor.com
 @marko_papic
</description>
    <date>2011-06-15 22:01:28</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2011-03-05 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/76281_re-alpha-insight-greece-situation-is-evolving-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>76300</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - GREECE - Situation is evolving
</title>
    <description>   Another update from our boy

   Right in all your points. On point one (unrest) though, I have to say -
   Yet. Things may get worse - maybe soon. Political instability breeds
   trouble, as they say. Also keep in mind that this time there are people in
   Sintagma square every day for 22 days now! 
   Marco,  I have to call it a night (after about 14-15 intense hours) will
   keep you posted on developments tomorrow.
   Keep an eye on the larger picture too, things are not going well, some
   international  investors (Hedge Funds- Paulson etc. some rumors say)  are
   really betting on a Greek accident and the following contagion.

   On 6/15/11 3:01 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

     More from my contact, I also agree on the bolded parts

     Latest developments. No co-operation! 
     Papandreou just declared a reshuffling of the government tomorrow -and a
     vote of confidence!
     He  may get the vote of confidence-marginally -and will count that MPs
     that did not topple the government will not abstain from votting the new
     measurew a few days later. Risky business and -this is what is important
     medium term- right now there is widespread doubt about the ability of
     any PASOK governement to implement the measures.
     Difficult to predict what happens next. As you may understand by now,
     this is GREEK politics, like no other! Most likely the outcome of this
     monkeing will not be nice.
     But IMF signaled today (according to FT and our own info) that they are
     going to give their side of the money for the 5th installment by early
     July, even if there is no concrete new package of help for Greece. In
     other words EU-IMF are willing to do almost whatever it takes so that we
     dont go into default right now.
     On the other hand - accidents can happen in such a big goatfuck as this
     one. 
     Best regards- and excuse the french 

     On 6/15/11 10:18 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

       Actually these are much better, organized by most recent at top

       PM and ND leader discuss all-party government, sources claim
           15 Jun 2011 (google says about 26 mins ago)
       http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43171
       Prime Minister George Papandreou held talks with main opposition New
       Democracy leader Antonis Samaras on the telephone on Wednesday, after
       a round of telephone calls with the leaders of the other political
       parties in Parliament. Their conversation lasted roughly 20 minutes.
        
       While an earlier official announcement by ND had refused to disclose
       the content of their talks before Papandreou had expressed his
       position, unnamed sources within the party said that the prime
       minister had described the situation as extremely difficult and that
       he was prepared to consider either an all-party government or a
       broader alliance government.
        
       The same sources said that Samaras did not reject the proposal but
       made it clear that this could not work with Papandreou as prime
       minister. To this, always according to ND sources, Papandreou
       apparently replied that he was not concerned about whether he was
       prime minister.
        
       Other sources within the party announced that there would be a second
       telephone communication between the two men later on Wednesday
       afternoon.
        
       Samaras has apparently made it a condition that there is a substantial
       renegotiation of the terms of the Memorandum for the loans to Greece,
       in order to agree to an all-party government.
        
       The ND leader, who has been in continuous contact with his closest
       aides since the morning, is expected to head to his party's
       headquarters in a short while. (ANA)

       PM talks with Samaras on the phone
           15 Jun 2011 (google says about 1 hour ago)
       http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43169

       Prime Minister George Papandreou held talks with main opposition New
       Democracy leader Antonis Samaras on the telephone on Wednesday, after
       a round of telephone calls with the leaders of the other political
       parties in Parliament.
        
       Their conversation lasted roughly 20 minutes and ND refused to reveal
       any information concerning their talks before the prime minister
       addresses the public.
        
       Samaras, who has been in continuous contact with his closest aides
       since the morning, was expected to head to his party's headquarters
       after the conversation with Papandreou. (ANA)

       Tsipras calls for immediate elections in phone call with PM
           15 Jun 2011 (google says about 2 hours ago)
       http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43163

       Coalition of the Radical Left (Syriza parliamentary alliance)
       parliamentary group leader Alexis Tsipras on Wednesday called for
       immediate general elections as the only way out for the country,
       during a telephone discussion with Prime Minister George Papandreou,
       according to party sources.
        
       Papandreou called Tsipras after an extraordinary meeting with
       President of the Republic Karolos Papoulias earlier in the day, in the
       context of a round of phone calls to all political party leaders.
        
       Sources said Papandreou reiterated his government's and his own
       personal determination that the Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy Framework
       programme will be passed by parliament, to which Tsipras replied that
       Syriza remained firm in its stance that the Memorandum and the
       Medium-Term programme are catastrophic for the country, and that the
       only way out, and to the benefit of stability in Greece, is immediate
       recourse to general elections.
        
       The same sources said that neither a new meeting of the Council of
       Political Party Leaders nor a one-on-one meeting with Papandreou were
       put forward during the phone discussion.
        
       Tsipras will make statements immediately after the prime minister's
       address to the nation later on Wednesday. (ANA)

       PM meets with President, rumours abound
           by (AthensNewsWeb)             15 Jun 2011 (google says about 3
       hours ago)
       http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43133
       Prime Minister George Papandreou met with the President of the
       Republic Karolos Papoulias, on Wednesday noon, stating that this is a
       "historic moment", while Greek journalists cancelled their 24-hour
       nationwide strike, as rumours abound about the possibility of a
       coalition government or snap elections.
        
       According to government sources, the prime minister will continue on
       Wednesday his round of telephone contacts with the political party
       leaders after his extraordinary meeting with Karolos Papoulias, adding
       that Papandreou had spoken only with Communist Party of Greece (KKE)
       leader Aleka Papariga and Democratic Left leader Fotis Kouvelis before
       the meeting.
        
       This clarification comes as earlier on Wednesday, a statement by
       Papandreou before the meeting with Papoulias that he was in contact
       with the party leaders to seek consensus sparked denials of such
       telephone contacts by ND and Syriza.

        
       Papandreou, the sources continued, would make an address to the people
       later on Wednesday. The government sources left open all prospects,
       but for the time being ruled out snap elections.
        
       Earlier, Pasok MP Ntinos Vrettos asked for the government to resign so
       that a new one would be formed of publicly acclaimed experts and
       politicians.
        
       On Tuesday, Florina MP Giorgos Lianis tendered his resignation as a
       member of Pasok's central committee. Lianis is keeping his parliament
       seat and will continue to serve as an independent, leaving the ruling
       Pasok party with 155 MPs.
        
       In his resignation letter addressed to the Speaker of the Parliament
       and to Prime Minister George Papandreou, Lianis stressed that he does
       not believe anymore in the government's economic policy and that "we
       [the government] have failed and we are forced to hide the truth from
       the people".
        
       Lianis, who started his career as a journalist, was first elected to
       parliament on Pasok's ticket in 1989 and he has served as deputy
       culture minister from 1993 to 1996.
        
       Earlier on Tuesday, Pasok MP for Kozani Alekos Athanasiadis in a radio
       interview said that he would vote against the medium-term programme.
        
       "I will not vote for the medium-term programme and I assume my
       responsibilities," Athanasiadis said.
        
       The government on Thursday tabled in parliament a medium-term fiscal
       strategy framework for the economy envisaging a new round of severe
       austerity measures designed to bring in overall revenues of 28.259
       billion euros by 2015, as well as a 50 billion euros privatisation
       programme. The programme is scheduled to be put to vote in the
       300-member chamber on June 28.

       ND denies reports of Samaras meeting with PM aide
           15 Jun 2011 (google says about 5 hours ago)
       http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43150
       Main opposition New Democracy categorically denied on Wednesday
       rumours appearing on several blogs and websites of a meeting on
       Tuesday between ND leader Antonis Samaras and a representative of
       Prime Minister George Papandreou.
        
       In a statement, ND press officer Yiannis Michelakis called the rumours
       "absurd" and unworthy of denial.
        
       ND further denied any telephone contact whatsoever between Samaras and
       Papandreou. (ANA)

       On 6/15/11 10:05 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

         ND denies reports of Samaras meeting with PM aide
             15 Jun 2011
         http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43150
         Main opposition New Democracy categorically denied on Wednesday
         rumours appearing on several blogs and websites of a meeting on
         Tuesday between ND leader Antonis Samaras and a representative of
         Prime Minister George Papandreou.
          
         In a statement, ND press officer Yiannis Michelakis called the
         rumours "absurd" and unworthy of denial.
          
         ND further denied any telephone contact whatsoever between Samaras
         and Papandreou. (ANA)

         Greek PM Prepared To Step Down To Form Alliance Government Even As
         Opposition's Samaras Demands Substantial MOU Renegotiation
         Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/15/2011 10:50 -0400
         http://www.zerohedge.com/article/greek-pm-prepared-step-down-form-alliance-government-even-oppositions-samaras-demands-substa

         Developments in Athens are to say the least fluid. The latest news
         out of Athens News states that G-Pap is prepared to step down in
         order to form an all-party consensus government with the main
         opposition party, New Democracy. "Prime Minister George Papandreou
         held talks with main opposition New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras
         on the telephone on Wednesday, after a round of telephone calls with
         the leaders of the other political parties in Parliament. Their
         conversation lasted roughly 20 minutes. While an earlier official
         announcement by ND had refused to disclose the content of their
         talks before Papandreou had expressed his position, unnamed sources
         within the party said that the prime minister had described the
         situation as extremely difficult and that he was prepared to
         consider either an all-party government or a broader alliance
         government. The same sources said that Samaras did not reject the
         proposal but made it clear that this could not work with Papandreou
         as prime minister. To this, always according to ND sources,
         Papandreou apparently replied that he was not concerned about
         whether he was prime minister." And while the political wrangling is
         irrelevant for the rest of the world, what is relevant, especially
         for the ECB which would need a bail out by the Fed should Greece
         default is the following: "Samaras has apparently made it a
         condition that there is a substantial renegotiation of the terms of
         the Memorandum for the loans to Greece, in order to agree to an
         all-party government." Good luck passing that by the Troica. In
         other words, Greece is now in a power vacuum and the worst case
         outcome for Europe appears set to be realized.

         PM and ND leader discuss all-party government, sources claim
         Wednesday, June 15, 2011
         http://greeceforu.blogspot.com/2011/06/pm-and-nd-leader-discuss-all-party.html
         Prime Minister George Papandreou held talks with main opposition New
         Democracy leader Antonis Samaras on the telephone on Wednesday,
         after a round of telephone calls with the leaders of the other
         political parties in Parliament. Their conversation lasted roughly
         20 minutes.
          
         While an earlier official announcement by ND had refused to disclose
         the content of their talks before Papandreou had expressed his
         position, unnamed sources within the party said that the prime
         minister had described the situation as extremely difficult and that
         he was prepared to consider either an all-party government or a
         broader alliance government.
          
         The same sources said that Samaras did not reject the proposal but
         made it clear that this could not work with Papandreou as prime
         minister. To this, always according to ND sources, Papandreou
         apparently replied that he was not concerned about whether he was
         prime minister.
          
         Other sources within the party announced that there would be a
         second telephone communication between the two men later on
         Wednesday afternoon.
          
         Samaras has apparently made it a condition that there is a
         substantial renegotiation of the terms of the Memorandum for the
         loans to Greece, in order to agree to an all-party government.
          
         The ND leader, who has been in continuous contact with his closest
         aides since the morning, is expected to head to his party's
         headquarters in a short while.

Greece's Drama: Political Leaders Reject PM's Offer for Consensus

         Posted by keeptalkinggreece in Politics
         http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2011/06/15/greeces-drama-political-leaders-reject-pms-offer-for-consensus/

         Tension is high not only on Syntagma Square but also on the
         political level, as Prime Minister George Papandreou contacted all
         political leaders after his meeting with the President earlier on
         Wednesday. Although it has not been very clear what were the exact
         proposals submitted by the Prime Ministers apart from `consensus'
         and several scenarios circulated, Greek media claim now that all
         political leaders turned down the PM. Newspaper Proto Thema even
         claims that they told him unanimously "George, Go Away!" and
         demanded early elections. Some scenarios speak of a new government
         withih

         Latest leakages from main opposition centre-right party Nea
         Dimokratia report that ND agrees only to a bipartisan or a ND-PASOK
         government, however with George Papandreou leaving the office of the
         prime minister. Another condition for ND to participate in a
         government with PASOK is the re-negotiation of the Memorandum and
         the Mid-Term Stability Programme.

         Earlier, PASOK-MP Dinos Vrettos asked in a written statement, all
         members of the government to resign and crucial ministerial
         positions to be occupied by non members of PASOK. He also favors a
         re-negotiation of the Mid-Term Package.

         Political leaders and some PASOK deputies seem to bow to the public
         demand, as this has been expressed by the mass protests, that a
         strict austerity without perspective for recovery and an always
         increasing debt does nothing else but impoverish people for the
         shake of the banks and the rescue of the Eurozone.

         George Papandreou is expected to address the public later today.

         keep tuned with "Keep Talking, Greece" and follow our Live Streaming
         and Live Blogging

         On 6/15/11 9:44 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

           More from our confed partner, he is feeding me up to date info. We
           should think about sit-repping this stuff

           Latest info is that Papandreou himself proposed such a change as a
           last ditch effort. It seems we are close to some sort of a deal. A
           prerogative of such a governement will most probably be a
           renegotiation of the measures. But conceivably, since there is no
           time for much bargaining now, first they would pass the measures
           through parliament (so that we can get the money) "in principle"
           and then try to renegotiate some of the measures (taxes mostly)
           proposing a different mix and probably some political "leeway"
            from the EU
           Its a touchy situation and as I said things are still evolving. I
           dont think we are going to an Argentina scenario at least not at
           this point.
           A national salvation governement backed by 90% of political
           parties is what the EU wanted all along, so I imagine  a lot of
           give and take  is going to happen soon.

           On 6/15/11 9:09 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

             Two more updates on this:

             Another PASOK MP Mr Dinos Vrettos, asked today for a total
             reshuffling of the government , and putting well known
             personalities from a broader spectrum in the new government.

             Papandreou in talks with Samaras about a coalition governement.
             Samaras wants a "national salvation" government without
             Papandreou as  a prime minister ( so that there is a new prime
             minister of wide and common acceptance).

             On 6/15/11 8:21 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

               PUBLICATION: Yes
               SOURCE: EL501
               ATTRIBUTION: Greek media sources
               SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Confed partner
               SOURCE  Reliability : A
               ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
               DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
               SPECIAL HANDLING: Marko

                I havent replyed earlier because the situation  is constantly
               evolving. Yesterday there were two MPs that refused to sign
               the new measures there is a big stike today with some
               (limited) violence going on at the center of Athens and our
               info is that Papandreou is in contact with other political
               leaders for some kind of broader consencus, maybe even some
               form of coalition govewrnement. 
               Will get back to you but the elections scenario is also at the
               forefront if no consencus in reached.
               --
               Marko Papic

               STRATFOR Analyst
               C: + 1-512-905-3091
               marko.papic@stratfor.com

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19

 --
 Marko Papic
 Senior Analyst
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 + 1-512-905-3091 (C)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
 www.stratfor.com
 @marko_papic

 --
 Marko Papic
 Senior Analyst
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 + 1-512-905-3091 (C)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
 www.stratfor.com
 @marko_papic

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com


 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com


 --
 Marko Papic
 Senior Analyst
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 + 1-512-905-3091 (C)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
 www.stratfor.com
 @marko_papic

 --
 Marko Papic
 Senior Analyst
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 + 1-512-905-3091 (C)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
 www.stratfor.com
 @marko_papic
</description>
    <date>2011-06-15 22:53:28</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2011-03-05 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/76300_re-alpha-insight-greece-situation-is-evolving-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>76832</id>
    <title>Re: [MESA] [CT] Anonymous
</title>
    <description>   ask noonan, he loves this group

   On 6/9/11 8:43 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

     Do you guys know whether a hacker group called Anonymous really exists?
     They're threatening to attack on some Turkish gov institutions in couple
     of hours due to the internet restrictions imposed by AKP (will enter
     into force August 22). I will write up a rep if it's a credible threat.

     --
     --
     Emre Dogru
     STRATFOR  
     Cell: +90.532.465.7514
     Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
     emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-06-09 16:10:16</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/76832_re-mesa-ct-anonymous-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bayless.parsley@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mesa@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:mesa@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>77491</id>
    <title>[alpha] TrapWire on London Hotel Plots
</title>
    <description>   Re. London: I've been hearing rumblings about hotel plots (London and
   elsewhere) for past six months. In my opinion, setting fire to your hotel
   room(s) is a pretty lame attempt at a terrorist strike...and shows the
   perps probably hadn't done much recce yet, or they would have seen the
   fire suppression systems at the Ritz. I've said this many times before: I
   have strong reservations that any group would attempt a "Mumbai-style"
   attack against a modern, western target. Our cops are not Indian cops. Our
   cops will run towards gun fire, not away. And our cops will not be using
   100 year old bolt action single-shot rifles. The Mumbai attack worked
   because it was in Mumbai. Once again, everyone here is fixated on the last
   battle. But that's just my humble opinion.

    
</description>
    <date>2011-06-17 15:22:38</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/77491_-alpha-trapwire-on-london-hotel-plots-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>77532</id>
    <title>Re: Former Spanish PM Azner
</title>
    <description>   Haha, I'm glad you noticed those gorgeous locks as well
   Aznar could have been exaggerating the ETA in VZ stuff, but who knows

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Nov 16, 2010, at 6:35 PM, Reginald Thompson
   &lt;reginald.thompson@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

     At least 20 camps? Pretty impressive. That's more than I've seen in OS,
     where so far all they've been focusing on is the Guasdalito camp where
     Cubillas was allegedly at, but it's quite possible all those former
     etarras are spread out all over the place. I would he's a lot more open
     about heaping criticisms on Chavez since I heard him speak at Trinity
     back in 2004, where he referred to him as "an interesting man." My
     brother has a picture of himself with Aznar at that event. Every time I
     look at it I really do think, it's always his hair that I notice.....

     -----------------
     Reginald Thompson

     Cell: (011) 504 8990-7741

     OSINT
     Stratfor

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Tuesday, November 16, 2010 5:26:21 PM
     Subject: Former Spanish PM Azner

     Wow, SeA+-or presidente is hardcore.. Way more extreme than even the  
     Israeli officials I've heard speak. He honestly believes that all  
     terrorists are the same and that nothing short of total war can defeat  
     them. He is adamantly against any kind of negotiation with terrorists  
     and criticizes France, Germany and others heavily in this regard. He  
     attributes French and German "weakness" on counterterrorism to their  
     larger Muslim populations. He said OBL's statement on retaking Andaluz  
     is all he heard and the Germans and French just didn't get it. He says  
     poverty has zero connection to terrorism and that developmental aid  
     policies are useless. On ETA, he said the ceasefires are just time  
     buying measures, nothing more. In Catalonia he says the regional govt  
     encourages Muslim immigration from Pakistan, Algeria, etc because they  
     can more easily linguistically integrate them as opposed to Spanish-
     speaking immigrants. This is also where the most radical imams are in  
     the country. He also said ETA has at least 20 camps in Venezuela and  
     ggat farc and eta work with each other in training l, weapons, etc.

     Overall, he's very ideological and hardline. Good reminder of the  
     personal role in poltics (though he also paid for that and is  
     embarassed by his loss)

     Also, great hair.

     Sent from my iPhone
</description>
    <date>2010-11-17 00:44:52</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/77532_re-former-spanish-pm-azner-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>78019</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT - PNG - Woman's body found in PM's home - CN65
</title>
    <description>    SOURCE:  CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources (and doing business with the leadership in PNG)
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

   My view is that the links between PNG and China won't be changed by who is
   in power, as China already has a substantial foot in the resources sector
   - Ramu NiCo and Marengo Mining, for example, as well as sniffing around
   PNG LNG.
   The main factor limiting China's ability to reach into the country is the
   inability of the PNG politicians to be efficient in receiving aid offers.
    For example, most of a US$200m loan facility remains undrawn because they
   can't work out how to utilise it.
   The thing about Melanesia is that politicians are not pro-active, and
   certainly not policy active.  They are instead led by people from outside.
    The factors that determine future direction are: first and foremost, how
   Australia throws aid around; and what other countries put on offer.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com


 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19
</description>
    <date>2011-06-15 16:43:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/78019_-alpha-insight-png-woman-s-body-found-in-pm-s-home-cn65-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ben.preisler@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>78674</id>
    <title>Re: AW: AW: Personal Invitation for Mr. Volker Perthes -
 STRATFOR-TUSIAD Event in Istanbul, Oct. 2011
</title>
    <description>   Marion,

   Thank you so much for the recommendation!  I greatly appreciate it. 

   Have a wonderful evening,

   Reva

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marion Calistri" &lt;Marion.Calistri@swp-berlin.org&gt;
   To: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, June 21, 2011 3:28:43 AM
   Subject: AW: AW: Personal Invitation for Mr. Volker Perthes -
   STRATFOR-TUSIAD Event in Istanbul, Oct. 2011

   Dear Reva Bhalla,

    

   I would recommend to contact our Turkey specialist Dr. GA 1/4nter Seufert
   (guenter.seufert@swp-berlin.org), who would certainly be a wonderful
   contributor to your event and more than a simple step-in for Professor
   Perthes. Please contact him directly and dona**t hesitate to write or call
   if I can be of any further assistance.

    

   All the best,

   Marion

    

   _____________________________________________

    

   Marion Calistri

   Assistant to the Director

   Professor Volker Perthes

   Phone: +49 (30) 88 007 a** 102

   Fax:      +49 (30) 88 007 a** 100

   mailto: marion.calistri@swp-berlin.org

   Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)

   German Institute for International and Security Affairs

   Ludwigkirchplatz 3 - 4, 10719 Berlin, Germany

   www.swp-berlin.org/en/start-en.html

    

   P   Help save paper - do you need to print this email?

    

    

    

   Von: Reva Bhalla [mailto:bhalla@stratfor.com]
   Gesendet: Donnerstag, 16. Juni 2011 18:20
   An: Calistri, Marion
   Betreff: Re: AW: Personal Invitation for Mr. Volker Perthes -
   STRATFOR-TUSIAD Event in Istanbul, Oct. 2011

    

   Ms. Calistri,

   Thank you for your reply. I regreat that Professor Perthes will be unable
   to join us. I will reach out to another one of your experts at SWP. Please
   let me know if you have any suggestions.

   All my best,

   Reva Bhalla
   Director of Analysis
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
   +1 512.699.8385 (mobile)

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marion Calistri" &lt;Marion.Calistri@swp-berlin.org&gt;
   To: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, June 15, 2011 4:39:44 AM
   Subject: AW: Personal Invitation for Mr. Volker Perthes - STRATFOR-TUSIAD
   Event in Istanbul, Oct. 2011

   Dear Mr. Bhalla,

    

   On behalf of Professor Perthes, I would like to thank you for your kind
   invitation to join the STRATFOR-TUSIAD Event in Istanbul on October 6,
   2011. Unfortunately, and very much to his regret he is already committed
   on this day and wona**t be able to travel to Istanbul.

    

   Hoping for your understanding, and

    

   With kind regards,

   Marion Calistri

    

   _____________________________________________

    

   Assistant to the Director

   Professor Volker Perthes

   Phone: +49 (30) 88 007 a** 102

   Fax:      +49 (30) 88 007 a** 100

   mailto: marion.calistri@swp-berlin.org

   Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)

   German Institute for International and Security Affairs

   Ludwigkirchplatz 3 - 4, 10719 Berlin, Germany

   www.swp-berlin.org/en/start-en.html

    

   P   Help save paper - do you need to print this email?

    

    

   Von: Reva Bhalla [mailto:bhalla@stratfor.com]
   Gesendet: Montag, 13. Juni 2011 17:57
   An: ILD_BA
   Betreff: Personal Invitation for Mr. Volker Perthes - STRATFOR-TUSIAD
   Event in Istanbul, Oct. 2011

    

    

   Please find attached a personal invitation for Mr. Volker Perthes to an
   Oct. 2011 event in Istanbul organized by  STRATFOR and TUSIAD.

   All my best,

   Reva Bhalla
   Director of Analysis
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
   +1 512.699.8385 (mobile)
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-20 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/78674_re-aw-aw-personal-invitation-for-mr-volker-perthes-stratfor.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Marion.Calistri@swp-berlin.org</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>79560</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT - GLOBAL - Macro report - OCH007
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE: OCH007
   ATTRIBUTION: Old China Hand
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Well connected financial source
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Meredith/Jen

                                        

   The global economy is facing a difficult period. The US Federal Reserve's
   QE2 program ends at the end of the month. Europe's debt issues continue to
   roll on as no party wants to pull the plug on Greece. The Middle East is
   in turmoil and high oil prices, together with food, are a tax on global
   consumers. Japan's reconstruction has yet to get into full gear; and there
   are new concerns about the durability of China's economy. Any significant
   slowdown there will send ripples of fear around the world.

   The Federal Reserve is likely to sit pat for some months to see how the US
   economy will be able to perform without the steroids provided by them.
   Foreign central banks have largely been absent from Treasury auctions. In
   quarter 1 this year, foreign central banks bought just 16% of the
   issuances while the Federal Reserve acquired almost 200%, according to
   Russell Napier. In other words, the Fed's activities have masked the
   exodus of foreign central banks including China from these auctions.

   If foreign central banks continue to abstain from purchasing US
   Treasuries, the private sector will have to fund the fiscal deficit,
   implying quarterly remittances to the US Treasury of some $370bn. The
   private sector will be able to fund these auctions but at a price. They
   will demand a higher return on treasury paper and the funding will mean
   that the free-flow of funds into equity and commodities will come to an
   end. Many institutions are taking risk off the table.

   On our associate's, WaveTrack International technical work, 10-year US
   Treasuries should be yielding around 4% later this summer and 6% a year or
   so later. The repercussions of such a change in the yield structure will
   have global consequences, not least on stock and commodity markets.

   Debt has woven a dangerous spider's web in Europe. The basic truth is that
   Greece can never repay its debt; the ECB, the IMF and Euro governments are
   merely buying time by granting new loans, hoping that the problem goes
   away. Future stability, however, does not depend on what these
   institutions and governments do, but on how the electorates will react. In
   their view, austerity can be accepted only on a one or two year view, not
   as an ongoing way of life.

   This is especially true of Greece whose national pride will find the sale
   of assets to foreigners wholly unacceptable. The same is true in other
   debt-laden Euro countries. All, apart from Italy, have seen their
   economies contract significantly over the past two years with little hope
   of any imminent improvement. The next major move could emanate from
   Ireland; the Irish government wants to renegotiate its ECB and other
   loans.

   In fact, nearly all the conventional forward looking indicators (PMIs,
   OECD leading indicators etc.) are suggesting that global growth is slowing
   and rolling over. The US ISM data for May was universally awful with every
   component from New Orders to Imports down significantly. This is a view
   shared by industry mills we talk to and visit regularly.

   The USA does not only have a cyclical problem, but a structural one also.
   The fundamental issue is that sooner rather than later government will be
   forced to introduce measures that will allow the country to live within
   its means. It will take a deep crisis before such policies can be put
   together and passed by the country's politicians. For instance, a run on
   the US dollar sometime next year or early in 2013 might do the trick.

   Unemployment amongst teenagers has become a serious structural and social
   problem for the USA in an economy that is becoming dominated by skilled
   workers. The number of unemployed teenagers (16-19) now totals almost one
   in four. However, the number of African-American, not seasonally adjusted
   U-3 unemployment, including both sexes, in the same age group has risen to
   a stunning 41%, almost every other teenager.

   Once Washington puts its act together, (it will have to or else the crisis
   will get so deep that US markets will become dysfunctional), America will
   find a large number of companies which had vacated the shores of the USA
   for China and other parts of Asia returning to their homeland.

   There are two main reasons for this change, what we call reverse
   globalisation. First, manufacturers want their supply chains located close
   to the market, not on the other side of the world. And second just as
   important is the cost differential trend which is narrowing together with
   the increasing logistical costs. It is not only the wage profile looking
   10 years forward, but the other costs, such as land, electricity, taxes
   together with the indirect supply chain cost increases. There is also the
   reluctance of the system in China to allow foreign companies to gain
   access to government contracts.

   Within a decade, the USA could supplant China as the manufacturing hub of
   the world. To repeat, big changes will be needed in Washington for this
   historic development to occur. The changes will not just be on the fiscal
   side, but the need to offer businesses the right incentives to produce in
   the USA rather than abroad, the permitting procedures to allow the
   development of the country's resources, including oil (the USA could
   become self-contained), making government less intrusive in households and
   businesses and so on.

    In short, it is putting back in place the principals that made America
   the great country it once was. Crises produce opportunities and this one
   is as big as they have been since the USA entered WW11. What is noteworthy
   is that should America grab its opportunity, it will become self-contained
   in energy and of course food. What other major power has those valuable
   twin assets?

    

   China and the rest of Asia are no exception to this slowing economic
   trend. In the former, government's focus on CPI inflation and the housing
   market together with its concerns on the degree of speculative or hot
   money circulating within the economy will almost ensure that the tight
   monetary policy will continue for some months yet. In these circumstances,
   further hikes in interest rates and Reserve Requirements are likely to be
   seen before the end of the year.

                       Chart 1: Shanghai Composite Index

   Such a scenario fits the political cycle. Some of the country's excesses
   can be cleaned out by end 2011, much to the delight of the incoming
   leadership, whilst monetary policy remains tight. The chief economist of
   the State Information Centre, who is well regarded in Beijing, said at a
   recent conference in Shanghai that "China has a serious inflation". He
   concluded his speech by saying that China had to endure some short term
   pain for the longer term benefit of the economy.

   Early in 2012, monetary policy will start to be loosened and should
   continue to do so throughout that year. The economy should recover so
   allowing the outgoing leadership to depart on a high note. Post 2012, we
   guess that the incoming leadership will want to put the economy on a
   firmer long-term footing, meaning more tightening. This may well coincide
   with the real estate sector seeing major falls in prices and, externally,
   the global economy starting to suffer from the breakout of its second
   global credit crisis. Oil prices in the $150-200 will be a disaster for
   China as one senior government economist said to us. China may well go
   through two odd years of real recession in 2013-14 years, in our view. The
   impact of an effective recession in China on the rest of the world will be
   serious and widespread.

                  Chart 2: The Demographics of the Middle East

   Some of the underlying causes for MENA countries' youth to rebel against
   their autocratic governments are common with China. The youth in these
   countries don't care about democracy or who governs: they want freedom of
   expression, for governments to uphold their rights and the right to work.

   It is why Beijing has become so sensitive to the Jasmine movement and
   ongoing developments in MENA. Workers' protests appear to be on the rise.
   The ability to communicate via computers and mobile phones (Facebook etc.)
   increasingly makes government powerless to control the flow of
   information.

    As the Financial Times wrote on 20th July, "the perception that local
   protests might be gaining a broader national coherence is deeply
   threatening to China's Communist Party....That is the conclusion of the
   government itself. A report by the State Council Development Research
   Centre blamed protests on the marginalisation of about 150M migrant
   workers...

                          Graph 1: Global Food Prices

   Global food prices have risen by 37% in the past year according to the
   FAO. It was higher food prices plus the high level of unemployment in MENA
   countries that sparked so much rioting in the region. China's government
   is highly sensitive to rising food prices. They may well rise further over
   the coming months due to the hog cycle so ensuring that pork prices
   increase further followed by corn and in due course even wheat. But,
   China's agricultural base is deteriorating. Top soil is collapsing to
   dangerous levels; its fertility is being destroyed by acidification; water
   is being consumed way beyond sustainable levels; and aquifers are being
   exhausted. These are structural issues, not short term cyclical ones.

   The demographics of the rural areas of China imply that the pool of active
   workers in the age group 15-30 is fast diminishing. It means that
   productivity will decline to a rate closer to the Asian Tigers ex. China
   or down to the 2% a year level from its historic 5% rate. The above
   remarks also imply that China will be importing more foodstuffs over the
   coming decade. Unlike the USA, China is becoming increasingly dependent on
   imports of food and energy.

   The above is a more likely scenario to evolve than the benign outlook
   postulated by so many. The world is not back to the 1990s sustainable
   growth, but its fragility is being patched up by unsustainable fiscal and
   monetary excesses. In fact, as Charles Gave wrote recently in GaveKal Five
   Corners these policies have had the opposite effect than those intended
   (the unintended consequences of policy actions!), "Capitalism cannot work
   without a proper cost of capital. Capitalism needs the process of creative
   destruction, and if real rates are negative or abnormally low, the
   destruction part of the process cannot happen, zombie companies are kept
   on perpetual life support and growth flags."

   This is exactly what is happening nearly everywhere. Politicians won't
   bite the bullet (perhaps with the exception of the UK) without a crisis.
   That crisis is coming, certainly by early 2013 if not sooner, to be
   followed by years of recession and deflation, a period when the down years
   will outnumber the up ones. It will be accompanied by a serious deflation
   of assets, both equities and commodities, perhaps excepting food. This
   period of austerity is likely to last until around 2018; a generation of
   debt should by then have been worked off so laying the foundations for a
   long period of sustainable growth.

           Chart 3: Historical Sovereign Default/Restructuring Events

                                        

   The truth is that the lessons of history have been conveniently forgotten
   or ignored, as illustrated by Carmen Reinhardt and Kenneth Rogoff in their
   epic work "Growth in a Time of Debt". Those lessons are simple: credit
   crises are followed by years of sub-par growth and sovereign defaults.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com


 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-06-22 17:15:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/79560_-alpha-insight-global-macro-report-och007-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>michael.wilson@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/10/10229_msg-21778-10889.png</path><size>22242</size><md5></md5><sha1>6aef9ae04ddd9b260e4499a3892acb6222f2263f</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/10/10230_msg-21778-10887.png</path><size>36974</size><md5></md5><sha1>5e5c8dcf1ed9fd2b90810873047cafcd7dae5ad0</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/10/10231_msg-21778-10888.png</path><size>20991</size><md5></md5><sha1>15a1587dc0a613c4e1faabce55f316d9accc6ad6</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/10/10233_msg-21778-10886.png</path><size>21583</size><md5></md5><sha1>ebf1147e11393ac246d4f2a21fef5a17d560ec99</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>79931</id>
    <title>RE: Insight --  IR902 - Iranian Diplomat on HZ Threat
</title>
    <description>   Here are some thoughts from my response to a client question earlier today
   on this matter:

    

   Have heard that assassination of Israeli officials in transit in 3rd
   countries is a potential option that Hezbollah is contemplating. But
   ultimately what Hezbollah does on a tactical level will be guided by the
   larger geopolitical situation, which limits what the group can and can't
   do.

    

   First and foremost, Hezbollah is a Lebanese political party, which is
   embroiled in two separate conflicts at this point: 1) The power struggle
   between the anti and pro-Syrian camps for control of the Lebanese govt,
   particularly its presidency.; 2) Its need to show that it is not a foreign
   (Iranian) lackey that is putting the interests of its patrons above the
   country.

    

   Secondly, Hezbollah knows that Israel is looking for an excuse for a
   re-match so it would not want to retaliate in such a way that provides the
   Israelis a pretext for an attack.

    

   Thirdly, the Mughniyah assassination has shown that the movement cannot
   trust the Syrians. Sources have been telling us that Hezbollah blames Asef
   Shaukat, Syria's intel chief and President Bashar al-Assad's
   brother-in-law.

    

   Fourth, Hezbollah knows Iraq is far more important for Iran than Lebanon,
   which further places constraints on Hezbollah's calculus.

    

   In the light of these considerations, Hezbollah will have to be very
   careful in how hits back. Most likely attacks against Israeli interests in
   3rd countries.

    

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, March 27, 2008 1:47 PM
   To: 'Reva Bhalla'
   Cc: secure@stratfor.com
   Subject: RE: Insight -- IR902 - Iranian Diplomat on HZ Threat

    

   The Jordanians are a very capable service.  Better than the Israelis on
   some target sets, because guess who helps them? 

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:bhalla@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, March 27, 2008 12:46 PM
   To: Fred Burton
   Cc: secure@stratfor.com
   Subject: Re: Insight -- IR902 - Iranian Diplomat on HZ Threat

   we've been hearing the same things from ME1's sources on how Hez and syria
   are not on good terms following the IM assassination.

    

   i asked someone here who the Arab country is that Syria is hinting was
   involved. source says not egypt, very likely Jordan.

    

   which makes me think that we could see the Hez retaliatory attack take
   place in Jordan..
   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: secure@stratfor.com
   Sent: Thursday, March 27, 2008 1:36:27 PM (GMT-0500) America/New_York
   Subject: Insight --  IR902 - Iranian Diplomat on HZ Threat

    

   PUBLICATION:  Not at this time

    

   ATTRIBUTION:   N/A 

    

   SOURCE  RELIABILITY:  A

    

   ITEM CREDIBILITY:   Unable to verify the veracity of the information at
   this time.  Have asked for additional clarification. 

    

    SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:  secure

    

   SPECIAL HANDLING: secure list only  

    

   Regarding Hizbullah's plans to avenge the assassination of Imad Mugniyah.
     

    

   He told me that the assassination has soured relations between Hizbullah
   and Syria who has been less than forthcoming on providing information in
   connection with the assassination. He believes Syria is embarrassed
   because certain Syrians are definitely involved one way or another in the
   assassination plot.    Syria will announce the outcome of its
   investigation after the end of the forthcoming Arab summit. 

    

   Hizbullah has made up its mind on putting all the blame on Israel. He told
   me that they will not avenge his assassination at the moment because they
   have core urgent issues to deal with such as the deep political crisis in
   Lebanon.   

    

   Hizbullah is currently in a state of confusion and shock and does not know
   how to respond, even though they are preparing a list of soft targets in
   Latin America and some Arab countries such as Jordan and Morocco.    He
   added that revenge is not a top priority for Hizbullah at the moment. They
   know that it would invite disproportionate Israeli retaliation for which
   they are not ready.   

    

   Iran has also cautioned them against making a wrong move at the present,
   because they cannot count on Iranian assistance beyond a display of
   solidarity and pep talk.
</description>
    <date>2008-03-27 18:51:42</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-13 17:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/79931_re-insight-ir902-iranian-diplomat-on-hz-threat-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>80291</id>
    <title>AW: AW: Personal Invitation for Mr. Volker Perthes - STRATFOR-TUSIAD Event in Istanbul, Oct. 2011
</title>
    <description>   Dear Reva Bhalla,

    

   I would recommend to contact our Turkey specialist Dr. Gu:nter Seufert
   (guenter.seufert@swp-berlin.org), who would certainly be a wonderful
   contributor to your event and more than a simple step-in for Professor
   Perthes. Please contact him directly and don't hesitate to write or call
   if I can be of any further assistance.

    

   All the best,

   Marion

    

   _____________________________________________

    

   Marion Calistri

   Assistant to the Director

   Professor Volker Perthes

   Phone: +49 (30) 88 007 - 102

   Fax:      +49 (30) 88 007 - 100

   mailto: marion.calistri@swp-berlin.org

   Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)

   German Institute for International and Security Affairs

   Ludwigkirchplatz 3 - 4, 10719 Berlin, Germany

   www.swp-berlin.org/en/start-en.html

    

   P   Help save paper - do you need to print this email?

    

    

    

   Von: Reva Bhalla [mailto:bhalla@stratfor.com]
   Gesendet: Donnerstag, 16. Juni 2011 18:20
   An: Calistri, Marion
   Betreff: Re: AW: Personal Invitation for Mr. Volker Perthes -
   STRATFOR-TUSIAD Event in Istanbul, Oct. 2011

    

   Ms. Calistri,

   Thank you for your reply. I regreat that Professor Perthes will be unable
   to join us. I will reach out to another one of your experts at SWP. Please
   let me know if you have any suggestions.

   All my best,

   Reva Bhalla
   Director of Analysis
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
   +1 512.699.8385 (mobile)

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marion Calistri" &lt;Marion.Calistri@swp-berlin.org&gt;
   To: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, June 15, 2011 4:39:44 AM
   Subject: AW: Personal Invitation for Mr. Volker Perthes - STRATFOR-TUSIAD
   Event in Istanbul, Oct. 2011

   Dear Mr. Bhalla,

    

   On behalf of Professor Perthes, I would like to thank you for your kind
   invitation to join the STRATFOR-TUSIAD Event in Istanbul on October 6,
   2011. Unfortunately, and very much to his regret he is already committed
   on this day and won't be able to travel to Istanbul.

    

   Hoping for your understanding, and

    

   With kind regards,

   Marion Calistri

    

   _____________________________________________

    

   Assistant to the Director

   Professor Volker Perthes

   Phone: +49 (30) 88 007 - 102

   Fax:      +49 (30) 88 007 - 100

   mailto: marion.calistri@swp-berlin.org

   Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)

   German Institute for International and Security Affairs

   Ludwigkirchplatz 3 - 4, 10719 Berlin, Germany

   www.swp-berlin.org/en/start-en.html

    

   P   Help save paper - do you need to print this email?

    

    

   Von: Reva Bhalla [mailto:bhalla@stratfor.com]
   Gesendet: Montag, 13. Juni 2011 17:57
   An: ILD_BA
   Betreff: Personal Invitation for Mr. Volker Perthes - STRATFOR-TUSIAD
   Event in Istanbul, Oct. 2011

    

    

   Please find attached a personal invitation for Mr. Volker Perthes to an
   Oct. 2011 event in Istanbul organized by  STRATFOR and TUSIAD.

   All my best,

   Reva Bhalla
   Director of Analysis
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
   +1 512.699.8385 (mobile)
</description>
    <date>2011-06-21 10:28:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-20 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/80291_aw-aw-personal-invitation-for-mr-volker-perthes-stratfor.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Marion.Calistri@swp-berlin.org</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>80324</id>
    <title>=?utf-8?B?QVc6IFBlcnNvbmFsIEludml0YXRpb24gZm9yIERyLiA=?=
	=?utf-8?B?R8O8bnRlciBTZXVmZXJ0IC0gU1RSQVRGT1ItVFVTSUFE?=
	=?utf-8?B?IEV2ZW50IGluIElzdGFuYnVsLCBPY3QuIDIwMTE=?=
</title>
    <description>   Dear Mrs Bhalla,

    

   thank you and the two organizers for your kind invitation, I feel honored
   to accept in principle. Please provide me with further information about
   your expectation regarding my contribution.

    

   Kind regards, Gu:nter Seufert

    

    

   Dr. Gu:nter Seufert

   SWP Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
   Deutsches Institut fu:r Internationale Politik und Sicherheit

   Ludwigkirchplatz 3 - 4

   10719 Berlin

   Telefon: +49 30 88007-276

   Fax:      +49 30 88007-100

   e-mail: guenter.seufert@swp-berlin.org

   www.swp-berlin.org

    

    

   Von: Reva Bhalla [mailto:bhalla@stratfor.com]
   Gesendet: Mittwoch, 22. Juni 2011 17:25
   An: Seufert, Guenter
   Betreff: Personal Invitation for Dr. Gu:nter Seufert - STRATFOR-TUSIAD
   Event in Istanbul, Oct. 2011

    

   Please find attached a personal invitation for Dr. Gu:nter Seufert to an
   Oct. 2011 event in Istanbul organized by  STRATFOR and TUSIAD.

   All my best,

   Reva Bhalla
   Director of Analysis
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
   +1 512.699.8385 (mobile)
</description>
    <date>2011-06-23 17:19:08</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-20 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/80324_-utf-8-b-qvc6ifblcnnvbmfsieludml0yxrpb24gzm9yierylia-utf-8-b.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Guenter.Seufert@swp-berlin.org</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>80337</id>
    <title>Re: [latam] [EastAsia] ARGENTINA/CHINA/ECON - Hungry China Shops in
	Argentina
</title>
    <description>   It is a good topic, they are all over the map. We've addressed it many
   times in the past, but there is always plenty going on. Jen also got some
   recent insight on this. it is a vast topic. for instance, China has
   invested about $10 bil in Brazil energy, $8 billion in Argentina energy,
   and $2 bil in Ecuador,  if memory serves. $7 billion in peruvian metals
   mining, $3 billion in Chilean metals, ... also a lot in venezuela, esp in
   energy and transport ...

   On 6/20/11 9:37 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

     It seems like China is all over the map in Latin America. Have we ever
     really addressed this? What does the US think/do about it?

     Hungry China Shops in Argentina
     June 20, 2011

     http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303823104576391621352528138.html

     BUENOS AIRES-Chinese investment is flooding into Argentina as the Asian
     giant expands its global commodity hunt from the raw materials used in
     industry to the foodstuffs needed to feed its 1.3 billion citizens.

     China's investment in Latin America hit $15.6 billion during the
     12-month period through the end of May, nearly three times greater than
     the year-ago period, consulting firm Deloitte said in a report. Of that
     amount, Brazil received about 60% and Argentina close to 40%.

     During the last three years, more than 70% of China's investment in the
     region went to energy and minerals, but farming is attracting more
     attention as the country seeks to fill its bowls from foreign fields.

     China already buys the bulk of Argentina's soybean exports, its top crop
     and largest source of export revenue. Soybeans are mainly used as
     livestock feed in China, where meat consumption is rising along with
     personal incomes. At the same time, urbanization is shrinking the amount
     of arable land available in China.

     Last week, China's largest farming company, Heilongjiang Beidahuang
     Nongken Group, signed a joint venture with Argentina's Cresud SA to buy
     land and farm soybeans.

     Cresud is one of Argentina's top agriculture firms with control over
     more than one million hectares (2.47 million acres) of farmland that
     produce grain, cattle and milk.

     Cresud didn't respond to requests for comment.

     Heilongjiang Beidahuang Chairman Sui Fengfu told Dow Jones Newswires in
     March that the company plans to buy 200,000 hectares of overseas
     farmland this year, and that Latin America is a target area. The company
     is already farming two million hectares of land outside China.

     Heilongjiang Beidahuang is also spending $1.5 billion to lease and
     develop farms on 300,000 hectares in Argentina's Rio Negro Province.
     Over a five- to 10-year period, the company plans to grow wheat, corn,
     soybeans, fruit, vegetables and wine grapes for export to China.

     The deals with local partners such as Cresud and the province of Rio
     Negro appear aimed at avoiding a backlash against foreign ownership of
     farmland in Argentina, since Heilongjiang Beidahuang won't be buying the
     land outright.

     President Cristina Fernandez has introduced legislation limiting land
     purchases by foreign individuals and companies to 1,000 hectares in
     rural areas, a move with popular support after a number of foreigners
     bought large holdings in recent years.

     Heilongjiang Beidahuang's incursion in agriculture comes hot on the
     heels of heavy Chinese investment in Argentina's oil sector.

     In February, Occidental Petroleum Corp. sold its local assets to China
     Petroleum &amp; Chemical Corp. for $2.5 billion. Last year, China's Cnooc
     Ltd., in partnership with Argentina's Bridas Corp., agreed to buy a 60%
     stake in Pan American Energy from BP PLC for $7.1 billion.

     Deloitte predicts that Chinese investment will continue pouring into
     Latin America but expects a diversification in the future into other
     industries such as manufacturing, infrastructure and finance.

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19

 --
 Matt Gertken
 Senior Asia Pacific analyst
 US: +001.512.744.4085
 Mobile: +33(0)67.793.2417
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-06-20 16:45:46</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-05 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/80337_re-latam-eastasia-argentina-china-econ-hungry-china-shops-in.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>matt.gertken@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>latam@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:latam@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ben.preisler@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>80947</id>
    <title>=?utf-8?Q?Re:_AW:_Personal_Invitation_for_Dr._G=C3=BCnter_Seufe?=
 =?utf-8?Q?rt_-_STRATFOR-TUSIAD_Event_in_Istanbul,_Oct._2011?=
</title>
    <description>   Mr. Seufert,

   I'm delighted you will be joining us!  I will be in touch soon with
   further details on the event.  A representative will also be contacting
   you to arrange flight and accommodations.

   Have a lovely weekend.

   Reva

   Reva Bhalla
   Director of Analysis
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
   +1 512.699.8385 (mobile)

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Guenter Seufert" &lt;Guenter.Seufert@swp-berlin.org&gt;
   To: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, June 23, 2011 10:19:08 AM
   Subject: AW: Personal Invitation for Dr. GA 1/4nter Seufert -
   STRATFOR-TUSIAD Event in Istanbul, Oct. 2011

   Dear Mrs Bhalla,

    

   thank you and the two organizers for your kind invitation, I feel honored
   to accept in principle. Please provide me with further information about
   your expectation regarding my contribution.

    

   Kind regards, GA 1/4nter Seufert

    

    

   Dr. GA 1/4nter Seufert

   SWP Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
   Deutsches Institut fA 1/4r Internationale Politik und Sicherheit

   Ludwigkirchplatz 3 - 4

   10719 Berlin

   Telefon: +49 30 88007-276

   Fax:      +49 30 88007-100

   e-mail: guenter.seufert@swp-berlin.org

   www.swp-berlin.org

    

    

   Von: Reva Bhalla [mailto:bhalla@stratfor.com]
   Gesendet: Mittwoch, 22. Juni 2011 17:25
   An: Seufert, Guenter
   Betreff: Personal Invitation for Dr. GA 1/4nter Seufert - STRATFOR-TUSIAD
   Event in Istanbul, Oct. 2011

    

   Please find attached a personal invitation for Dr. GA 1/4nter Seufert to
   an Oct. 2011 event in Istanbul organized by  STRATFOR and TUSIAD.

   All my best,

   Reva Bhalla
   Director of Analysis
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
   +1 512.699.8385 (mobile)
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-20 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/80947_-utf-8-q-re-_aw-_personal_invitation_for_dr-_g-c3.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>guenter.seufert@swp-berlin.org</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>80990</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT - Russian &amp; German deal over Moldova
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE: MD101
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Washington &amp; Chisinau
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Head of Moldovan Lobby in Washington, but lives
   partially in Chisinau &amp; connected to most politicians
   PUBLICATION: yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

    

   During the meeting Tuesday between Merkel and Putin in Geneva, it was
   decided that the pair will attempt to strike a deal on Moldova, that would
   put the country more security under Moscow's influence.

    

   It is a "German proposal" being offered to the Moldovan and TD governments
   though Russia helped write it. The proposal is that the TDs will get
   representation (could be 5 or 15 percent, or proportional) inside of the
   Moldovan parliament.

    

   This would literally flip the government as the TDs would ally with the
   Commies, which would far outnumber the so-called pro-European coalition.
   Meaning, Russia would have a stable and pro-Russian government entrenched
   in Moldova, not a chaotic one.

    

   In return, Russia has offered to be "open" to allowing EU or OSCE
   peacekeepers into TD to help it patrol with its military. Not that Russia
   said they will, but that they are open to the possibility. Russia is
   comfortable with this as their troops would stay, and then they would have
   a firm pro-Russian Moldovan government.

    

   This German-Russian proposal is under the guise of the so-called EU-Russia
   Foreign Policy and Security Council-which hasn't even been formed and
   isn't even an EU council, as only Berlin and Moscow are talking.

    

   So now the Germans and Russians are talking to the Moldovans and TDs on
   this with Putin personally handling the TDs and Merkel the Moldovans.

    

   The reason why the Moldovans are even considering this is because it is a
   German proposal. The Moldovans (government and regular people) absolutely
   love German attention, as it makes them feel important. Moreover, the
   Germans are offering some carrots - economic investment and other ties.

    

   The ones in the ruling coalition who are doing the negotiations are Filat
   and the FM Yuri Lyanke, who is in Filat's party. Filat believes that if he
   not only gets an agreement on TD, gets Germany econ investment &amp; is
   personally linked to Germany, then his popularity will soar. The coalition
   in Moldova is already shaky and the members of the coalition are willing
   to go their own ways if necessary. This could keep Filat in the political
   game no matter what happens. Filat is not pro-Western or pro-Russian, he
   is pro-himself, so he is looking out for his political future.

    

   Now, theoretically, any negotiation is not suppose to be German or Russian
   proposals, it is suppose to be a 5+2 proposal and be signed off by
   Brussels. But that is not how the Germans and Russians are doing this,
   because they know no one in Washington or Brussels will sign off on this.
   So if they can simply get Moldova and TD to sign off, then it is done.
   Washington and Brussels will push on the 21st for this new agreement to go
   through them, but Berlin and Moscow don't care and won't agree.

    

   The US is really not happy about any of this, but is not willing to stand
   up to the Russian over Moldova at this time, because of the other issues
   (LG: Afgh) between Moscow and Washington. So the US is going to ask 3rd
   parties to go pressure the Moldovans - mainly the Lithuanians, Poles,
   Romanians and Brits. The Romanians won't be any help as they simply have
   given up really caring about Moldova. They know the US is their security
   guarantee, so why care if the Russians are next door-they have the US.

    

   So, this will all be discussed on the 21st meeting in Moscow. It isn't
   that Russia and Germany will get the deal then, but this is the start. Now
   it comes down to the Poles, Lithuanians, and Brits convincing Filat that
   this is suicide.

    

    

    

    

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-06-16 20:40:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-05 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/80990_-alpha-insight-russian-and-german-deal-over-moldova-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>clint.richards@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>81060</id>
    <title>[alpha] Insight - VZ02 - more on state of affairs at PDVSA and the
	Faja
</title>
    <description>   Don't have the header on me, but this is a follow up to something I sent
   earlier this week.
   ----------
   The deals with ENI and CNOOC involve very long term project work, which is
   likely to take many years to produce oil (say seven).  
    
   By the time this oil comes on stream, it'll only serve to replace
   production which is being lost due to depletion of current developed
   areas. I'm in Guatemala, and I had a discussion about this with other
   consultants I'm working with, and you should have heard the fight, there
   are lots of opinions about this. But I do think I know a lot more about
   the Faja than most people, and I'm betting on production continuing to
   fall.
    
   The  one guy I know who is willing to talk is on vacation, and this has to
   be done carefully, everybody there seems to be convinced the phones are
   tapped, and email is being read.
    
   The way I take PDVSA's pulse is to see how much they pay people, and
   whether they do something serious to get people to want to work for them.
   Thus far, I don't see much movement. This is just a bunch of tropical Pol
   Pots and Kim Jong Ils trying to run a country. Pure garbagemen. Ramirez is
   in way over his head - I never thought he was worth much, and he's proving
   it, sitting on giant oil fields, oil at $100 a barrel, and he cant get the
   oil out - and he's also running out of gas, by the way. Check the gas
   story and you'll see they are in deep doodoo. Ramirez  spends too much
   time sucking up to Chavez and having hissy spits against the middle class.
   Orlando Chacin is the only guy who can do something out of that bunch, and
   he's not likely to get Ramirez' job.
    
   Regards
   Sent from my iPhone
</description>
    <date>2011-06-25 21:48:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-10 21:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/81060_-alpha-insight-vz02-more-on-state-of-affairs-at-pdvsa-and.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>hooper@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>81107</id>
    <title>[alpha] DHS - Sinaloa Drug Cartel Reference Guide
</title>
    <description>     This document is part of a collection leaked by the anonymous hacker
     collective known as LulzSec.

     * 9 pages
     * For Official Use Only
     * Law Enforcement Sensitive
     * October 28, 2010
   --
   Cordially,
    
   David Dafinoiu
   President
    
   NorAm Intelligence
   Mobile: 646-678-2905
   david@dafinoiu.com
   dd@noramintel.com
   http://noramintel.com

   --
   Cordially,
    
   David Dafinoiu
   President
   NorAm Intelligence
   Mobile: 646-678-2905
   david@dafinoiu.com
   dd@noramintel.com
   http://noramintel.com
    
   
   The information contained in this facsimile or electronic message is
   confidential information intended for the use of the individual or entity
   named above. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient,
   or an employee or agent responsible for delivering this message to the
   intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, or
   copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. If this message
   contains non-public personal information about any consumer or customer of
   the sender or intended recipient, you are further prohibited under penalty
   of law from using or disclosing the information to any third party by
   provisions of the federal Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act. If you have received
   this facsimile or electronic message in error, please immediately notify
   us by telephone or email and return or destroy the original message to
   assure that it is not read, copied, or distributed by others.
</description>
    <date>2011-06-25 13:13:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/81107_-alpha-dhs-sinaloa-drug-cartel-reference-guide-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/10/10296_DHS - Mexico_T.pdf</path><size>2109576</size><md5></md5><sha1>665042b4c82950b1232f4621f2188fd10b8c97ba</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>82421</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Fwd: RE: Kabul
</title>
    <description>   Could we rep

       According to STRATFOR sources, preliminary, unconfirmed information on
   an unfolding attack Intercontinental Hotel in Kabul indicates that
   militans stormed in force out of a vehicle after one suicide bomber
   detonated a vest at the gate. Meanwhile rumors on the unfolding even
   indicate at least two VBIEDs may be circling compound waiting to get in

   On 6/28/11 3:21 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

     -------- Original Message --------

     Subject: RE: Kabul                                    
        Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2011 16:20:59 -0400              
        From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt; 
          To: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;            

     Stormed in force out of a vehicle after one perp detonated a vest at the
     gate. (That's preliminary -- not confirmed yet).

     Rumint has it that at least two VBIEDs may be circling compound waiting
     to get in.

      

     From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Tuesday, June 28, 2011 3:19 PM
     To: Michael Maness
     Subject: Re: Kabul

      

     Any idea how they got in?

      

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-06-28 22:25:36</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/82421_re-alpha-fwd-re-kabul-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>michael.wilson@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>82666</id>
    <title>[alpha] Fwd: Kabul hotel attack (more)
</title>
    <description>   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: RE: Kabul                                    
      Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2011 16:34:06 -0400              
      From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt; 
        To: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;            

   Affirmative.

   One of the few decent places around there (owned by a UAE group I think
   that put about $25M into it five or six years ago). Lots of journalists
   too. I think they may have been hosting a group of westerners right now --
   which is allegedly reason for the attack. As far as know, it's not
   actually part of the Intercontinental Inc. chain -- they just kept the
   name.

    

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Tuesday, June 28, 2011 3:30 PM
   To: Michael Maness
   Subject: Re: Kabul

    

   Lotta of Western contractors stay at this site? 
</description>
    <date>2011-06-28 22:36:51</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/82666_-alpha-fwd-kabul-hotel-attack-more-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>82780</id>
    <title>[alpha] Fwd: Kabul VBIEDs?
</title>
    <description>   Update

   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: RE: Kabul                                    
      Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2011 16:27:58 -0400              
      From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt; 
        To: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;            

   Negative. Seems to be circular reporting at the moment -- kicked off by
   Afghan press and/or security forces.

    

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Tuesday, June 28, 2011 3:27 PM
   To: Michael Maness
   Subject: Re: Kabul

    

   anyway to confirm the rumint of additional VBIEDs? 

    
</description>
    <date>2011-06-28 22:29:03</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/82780_-alpha-fwd-kabul-vbieds-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>83030</id>
    <title>[alpha] Fwd: Kabul
</title>
    <description>   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: Kabul                                                             
      Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2011 16:17:14 -0400                                   
      From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;                      
        To: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;,                                
            "fredburton1@att.blackberry.net" &lt;fredburton1@att.blackberry.net&gt; 

   Once again -- proof positive that all the Gates, Guns and Guards in the
   world will not stop an attack on the hospitality industry.

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-06-28 22:18:16</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/83030_-alpha-fwd-kabul-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>83044</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Fwd: RE: Kabul
</title>
    <description>   I would delete the last sentence to distance TrapWire. 

   On 6/28/2011 3:25 PM, Michael Wilson wrote:

     Could we rep

         According to STRATFOR sources, preliminary, unconfirmed information
     on an unfolding attack Intercontinental Hotel in Kabul indicates that
     militans stormed in force out of a vehicle after one suicide bomber
     detonated a vest at the gate. Meanwhile rumors on the unfolding even
     indicate at least two VBIEDs may be circling compound waiting to get in

     On 6/28/11 3:21 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

       -------- Original Message --------

       Subject: RE: Kabul                                    
          Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2011 16:20:59 -0400              
          From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt; 
            To: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;            

       Stormed in force out of a vehicle after one perp detonated a vest at
       the gate. (That's preliminary -- not confirmed yet).

       Rumint has it that at least two VBIEDs may be circling compound
       waiting to get in.

        

       From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
       Sent: Tuesday, June 28, 2011 3:19 PM
       To: Michael Maness
       Subject: Re: Kabul

        

       Any idea how they got in?

        

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-06-28 22:26:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/83044_re-alpha-fwd-re-kabul-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.wilson@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>83124</id>
    <title>[alpha] (more) TrapWire on Kabul Hotel Attack
</title>
    <description>   Nothing to confirm or refute this initial claim. But new reporting
   suggests attackers arrived dressed as Afghan police. This is standard MO
   for Taliban...and many terror groups as you know. Only thing that everyone
   agrees on right now is that this thing was meticulously planned, and
   clearly well surveilled ahead of time. This hotel has multiple layers of
   defense -- including armed guards -- and still the bad guys got in. We
   don't have a single hotel in this country with even 10% of the security
   the Intercontinental had. When they decide to start targeting hotels here,
   it'll shooting fish in a barrel.

    

    

   Stormed in force out of a vehicle after one perp detonated a vest at the
   gate  (Mike, think this remains accurate?)
</description>
    <date>2011-06-29 16:27:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/83124_-alpha-more-trapwire-on-kabul-hotel-attack-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>83256</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] (more) TrapWire on Kabul Hotel Attack
</title>
    <description>   Just FYI, an AFP report citing witnesses said they came in civilian
   clothing--

   Witness Sayed Hussain said he was inside the hotel compound when it
   started.

   "I saw five to six men in civilian clothing armed with rifles who started
   shooting when they entered," he said, speaking close to the scene. "I lay
   down on the ground and soon after the police arrived."

   He added that police and the attackers then exchanged fire for about 10 to
   15 minutes before he heard a loud explosion.

   Another man, who did not want to give his name, said he had been at the
   hotel intending to have dinner with friends when he heard gunshots and lay
   down in a muddy ditch to hide.

   An Afghan guard was then shot nearby and fell on top of him, he said.

   http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5ilEuzK3PcB08rAsvjJYKKfM9PI7Q?docId=CNG.6e145485d1197582aa5fe96d397320c0.791

   On 6/29/11 9:27 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

     Nothing to confirm or refute this initial claim. But new reporting
     suggests attackers arrived dressed as Afghan police. This is standard MO
     for Taliban...and many terror groups as you know. Only thing that
     everyone agrees on right now is that this thing was meticulously
     planned, and clearly well surveilled ahead of time. This hotel has
     multiple layers of defense -- including armed guards -- and still the
     bad guys got in. We don't have a single hotel in this country with even
     10% of the security the Intercontinental had. When they decide to start
     targeting hotels here, it'll shooting fish in a barrel.

      

      

     Stormed in force out of a vehicle after one perp detonated a vest at the
     gate  (Mike, think this remains accurate?)

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-06-29 17:37:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/83256_re-alpha-more-trapwire-on-kabul-hotel-attack-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>83306</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] (more) TrapWire on Kabul Hotel Attack
</title>
    <description>   In house security tape (provided it was in place and being used) should be
   able to nail this down. 

   On 6/29/2011 10:37 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     Just FYI, an AFP report citing witnesses said they came in civilian
     clothing--

     Witness Sayed Hussain said he was inside the hotel compound when it
     started.

     "I saw five to six men in civilian clothing armed with rifles who
     started shooting when they entered," he said, speaking close to the
     scene. "I lay down on the ground and soon after the police arrived."

     He added that police and the attackers then exchanged fire for about 10
     to 15 minutes before he heard a loud explosion.

     Another man, who did not want to give his name, said he had been at the
     hotel intending to have dinner with friends when he heard gunshots and
     lay down in a muddy ditch to hide.

     An Afghan guard was then shot nearby and fell on top of him, he said.

     http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5ilEuzK3PcB08rAsvjJYKKfM9PI7Q?docId=CNG.6e145485d1197582aa5fe96d397320c0.791

     On 6/29/11 9:27 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

       Nothing to confirm or refute this initial claim. But new reporting
       suggests attackers arrived dressed as Afghan police. This is standard
       MO for Taliban...and many terror groups as you know. Only thing that
       everyone agrees on right now is that this thing was meticulously
       planned, and clearly well surveilled ahead of time. This hotel has
       multiple layers of defense -- including armed guards -- and still the
       bad guys got in. We don't have a single hotel in this country with
       even 10% of the security the Intercontinental had. When they decide to
       start targeting hotels here, it'll shooting fish in a barrel.

        

        

       Stormed in force out of a vehicle after one perp detonated a vest at
       the gate  (Mike, think this remains accurate?)

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-06-29 17:50:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/83306_re-alpha-more-trapwire-on-kabul-hotel-attack-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>83348</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] (more) TrapWire on Kabul Hotel Attack
</title>
    <description>   Two points here:

   1. If they were in fact dressed in Afghan police clothing it brings us
   back to the question we addressed in the afghan weekly a few weeks ago
   where there is concern about militant infiltration into the Afghan
   security forces. This definitely makes things difficult as the Afghan
   security forces are handed over the control which brings us to Sean's
   point about the fact the operation primarily ended with the NATO
   helicopters shooting down 3 men on the roof and even then there was one
   guy just going around in the hotel and it took about 2 hours to contain
   him.

   2. Also if the militants were dressed in Afghan police attire it explains
   how they managed to bypass those multiple layers of defense.

   On Wednesday, 6/29/11 9:27 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

     Nothing to confirm or refute this initial claim. But new reporting
     suggests attackers arrived dressed as Afghan police. This is standard MO
     for Taliban...and many terror groups as you know. Only thing that
     everyone agrees on right now is that this thing was meticulously
     planned, and clearly well surveilled ahead of time. This hotel has
     multiple layers of defense -- including armed guards -- and still the
     bad guys got in. We don't have a single hotel in this country with even
     10% of the security the Intercontinental had. When they decide to start
     targeting hotels here, it'll shooting fish in a barrel.

      

      

     Stormed in force out of a vehicle after one perp detonated a vest at the
     gate  (Mike, think this remains accurate?)

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-06-29 16:46:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/83348_re-alpha-more-trapwire-on-kabul-hotel-attack-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>hoor.jangda@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>83409</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Fwd: RE: Kabul
</title>
    <description>   thanks

   On 6/28/11 3:26 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

     I would delete the last sentence to distance TrapWire. 

     On 6/28/2011 3:25 PM, Michael Wilson wrote:

       Could we rep

           According to STRATFOR sources, preliminary, unconfirmed
       information on an unfolding attack Intercontinental Hotel in Kabul
       indicates that militans stormed in force out of a vehicle after one
       suicide bomber detonated a vest at the gate. Meanwhile rumors on the
       unfolding even indicate at least two VBIEDs may be circling compound
       waiting to get in

       On 6/28/11 3:21 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

         -------- Original Message --------

         Subject: RE: Kabul                                    
            Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2011 16:20:59 -0400              
            From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt; 
              To: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;            

         Stormed in force out of a vehicle after one perp detonated a vest at
         the gate. (That's preliminary -- not confirmed yet).

         Rumint has it that at least two VBIEDs may be circling compound
         waiting to get in.

          

         From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
         Sent: Tuesday, June 28, 2011 3:19 PM
         To: Michael Maness
         Subject: Re: Kabul

          

         Any idea how they got in?

          

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com


 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-06-28 22:26:44</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/83409_re-alpha-fwd-re-kabul-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.wilson@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>83412</id>
    <title>[alpha] Fwd: RE: Kabul
</title>
    <description>   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: RE: Kabul                                    
      Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2011 16:20:59 -0400              
      From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt; 
        To: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;            

   Stormed in force out of a vehicle after one perp detonated a vest at the
   gate. (That's preliminary -- not confirmed yet).

   Rumint has it that at least two VBIEDs may be circling compound waiting to
   get in.

    

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Tuesday, June 28, 2011 3:19 PM
   To: Michael Maness
   Subject: Re: Kabul

    

   Any idea how they got in?

    
</description>
    <date>2011-06-28 22:21:49</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/83412_-alpha-fwd-re-kabul-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>83508</id>
    <title>[alpha] Trapwire on  Kabul Hotel Attack
</title>
    <description>   Two schools of thought on this at the moment:

    

   1. Taliban expected the hotel to be full of westerners attending the
   transition talks. The hotel is used by westerners, but not nearly as much
   as the Serena Hotel downtown. The attackers allegedly communicated to
   their Taliban planners during the operation that they were going
   door-to-door and rounding up "many westerners." Whether or not this was
   Taliban hype, they clearly wanted to give the impression they were
   head-hunting foreigners.

    

   2. The Taliban targeted the hotel due to fact that clan/tribal chiefs were
   staying there ahead of the transition talks. (Which is true, there were
   some in the hotel at the time of the attack). This could have been the
   Taliban's attempt to send a mssg that they were still strong, and that no
   decisions on the future of Afghanistan can occur without them. In other
   words, a pure intimidation op.

    

    

   Mike, Who do you think the target was?  Thanks
</description>
    <date>2011-06-29 15:22:51</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/83508_-alpha-trapwire-on-kabul-hotel-attack-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>83568</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire on  Kabul Hotel Attack
</title>
    <description>   This makes sense, they don't know anymore than we do on the targetting. 
   But the other thing is to compare their capabilities with available
   targets.  They may simply have not thought they could exploit a
   vulnerability at the Serena, so chose the next most high profile target. 

   Did not see this before I sent out last Insight questions, but I had seen
   this earlier insight-

   Stormed in force out of a vehicle after one perp detonated a vest at the
   gate. (That's preliminary -- not confirmed yet).

   Can we confirm that?  Once they got to the gate, which I assume is farther
   away from the hotel at the bottom of a hill, how did they get through the
   next checkpoints?

   On 6/29/11 8:22 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

     Two schools of thought on this at the moment:

      

     1. Taliban expected the hotel to be full of westerners attending the
     transition talks. The hotel is used by westerners, but not nearly as
     much as the Serena Hotel downtown. The attackers allegedly communicated
     to their Taliban planners during the operation that they were going
     door-to-door and rounding up "many westerners." Whether or not this was
     Taliban hype, they clearly wanted to give the impression they were
     head-hunting foreigners.

      

     2. The Taliban targeted the hotel due to fact that clan/tribal chiefs
     were staying there ahead of the transition talks. (Which is true, there
     were some in the hotel at the time of the attack). This could have been
     the Taliban's attempt to send a mssg that they were still strong, and
     that no decisions on the future of Afghanistan can occur without them.
     In other words, a pure intimidation op.

      

      

     Mike, Who do you think the target was?  Thanks

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-06-29 16:14:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/83568_re-alpha-trapwire-on-kabul-hotel-attack-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>83830</id>
    <title>[Insight] INSIGHT - SYRIA - Asef Shawkat finally getting the boot?
</title>
    <description>   PUBLICATION: Yes

   SOURCE: Syrian businessman w/cnxn to Makhlouf

   ATTRIBUTION: Source in Syria

   SOURCE  Reliability :  C 

   ITEM CREDIBILITY:  3 

   SPECIAL HANDLING: N/A

   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

    
   my note -- have been writing a lot on this -- see those analyses
   for reference. if htis is true, we are about to see some rumblings in the
   al Assad family regime.
    
    
   My source says Syrian president Bashar Asad has ordered his brother-in-law
   general Asef Shawkat to step down as the chief investigator in the
   assassination of Imad Muhniyye. Bashar's maternal cousin Rami Makhluf (my
   source has business dealings with him)has replaced Shawkat as the
   Mughniyye assassinmation investigator chief despite his modest
   credentials.

   My source says Hizbullah has protested to Asad against the appointment of
   Makhluf as the investigator. Hizbullah accuses Shawkat of having a key
   role in Mughniyye's assassination and demanded interrogating him as a
   primary suspect.

   My source says Syrian investigations have already revealed involvement by
   a Syrian army officer in Mughniyye's assassination. The officer collected
   detailed intelligence about Mughniyye's movements while in Syria and in
   the Biqaa vallye, during former's tenure in the central Biqaa as an
   intelligence officer during the 1990s. The officer discussed security
   matters with Mughniyye during two major Israeli military operations in
   Lebanon (Galilee Accountability Operation in July  1993 and the Grapes of
   Wrath in April 1996).
    
</description>
    <date>2008-03-25 15:52:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-13 17:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/83830_-insight-insight-syria-asef-shawkat-finally-getting-the-boot.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:reporting@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reporting@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>83883</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire on  Kabul Hotel Attack
</title>
    <description>   Checking

   Does GOOGLE earth have a picture of the stand off and/or gates? 

   We may be able to count 'em. 

   On 6/29/2011 9:14 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     This makes sense, they don't know anymore than we do on the targetting. 
     But the other thing is to compare their capabilities with available
     targets.  They may simply have not thought they could exploit a
     vulnerability at the Serena, so chose the next most high profile
     target. 

     Did not see this before I sent out last Insight questions, but I had
     seen this earlier insight-

     Stormed in force out of a vehicle after one perp detonated a vest at the
     gate. (That's preliminary -- not confirmed yet).

     Can we confirm that?  Once they got to the gate, which I assume is
     farther away from the hotel at the bottom of a hill, how did they get
     through the next checkpoints?

     On 6/29/11 8:22 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

       Two schools of thought on this at the moment:

        

       1. Taliban expected the hotel to be full of westerners attending the
       transition talks. The hotel is used by westerners, but not nearly as
       much as the Serena Hotel downtown. The attackers allegedly
       communicated to their Taliban planners during the operation that they
       were going door-to-door and rounding up "many westerners." Whether or
       not this was Taliban hype, they clearly wanted to give the impression
       they were head-hunting foreigners.

        

       2. The Taliban targeted the hotel due to fact that clan/tribal chiefs
       were staying there ahead of the transition talks. (Which is true,
       there were some in the hotel at the time of the attack). This could
       have been the Taliban's attempt to send a mssg that they were still
       strong, and that no decisions on the future of Afghanistan can occur
       without them. In other words, a pure intimidation op.

        

        

       Mike, Who do you think the target was?  Thanks

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-06-29 16:16:29</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/83883_re-alpha-trapwire-on-kabul-hotel-attack-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>84934</id>
    <title>Re: The Business of Stratfor
</title>
    <description>50</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 01:15:30</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/84934_re-the-business-of-stratfor-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>victoria.allen@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/10/10516_The Business of STRATFOR.docx</path><size>162405</size><md5></md5><sha1>cc25a3c66d0d2822fb79c6b2881883ef30f52d54</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>85155</id>
    <title>[latam] BRAZIL - COUNTRY BRIEF AM 07052011
</title>
    <description>   BRAZIL

   POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

   1)Over the weekend President Rousseff ordered Transport Minister Alfredo
   Nascimento to suspend several of his top aides following on the news
   magazine Veja claims the officials were charging a 5% kickback fee on
   projects coming through the ministry. A statement issued by Rousseff's
   office said she a**has confidencea** in Nascimento and that he was
   responsible for investigating the problems at the ministry. The president
   was scheduled to meet the minister this week to talk about the matter. The
   allegations and Rousseff's role in the suspensions could trigger more
   friction within the 10 parties that she relies on to pass legislation.
   Nascimento's Party of the Republic is small and shouldnA't cause her much
   trouble, however,  Rousseff's relations with bigger parties such as the
   PMDB have frayed due to disputes over budget cuts and appointments to
    government jobs.

   2)Rousseff expressed concern over situation of Brasiguayos during sideline
   meeting with Lugo. This is an issue that the Brazilian govt has been
   watching closely. Rousseff said that it is important that Brazil and
   Paraguay are on the same page on the fundamental problems of this issue.

    

   ECONOMY

   3)Brazil will continue to act to restrain the strength of its currency
   with intervention in the futures and derivatives markets among its
   possible options, said the country's finance minister on Tuesday."The
   government will continue to take measures to contain the overvaluation of
   exchange rate...We've taken measures on reserve requirements, we can take
   measures on derivative and futures. But these are not measures we will
   pre-announce," Guido Mantega told reporters in London.

   4)China will invest USD 4.5 billion in Brazil's technology sector this
   year, as Chinese investment in the Latin American country shifts from
   agriculture and mining. Chinese investment is expected to hit USD 9
   billion this year, with half of it going into high-tech industries,
   Alessandro Teixeira, deputy minister of Brazil's Ministry of Development,
   Industry and Foreign Trade, told China Daily.

   5)Brazilian poultry exports reached nearly USD 4 billion in the first
   half, an increase of 28.5% compared with the same period of last year.
   Approximately 2 million tons were shipped, a 6.8% increase using the same
   basis of comparison. The information was disclosed by the Brazilian
   Poultry Union (Ubabef, in the Portuguese acronym).

   6)Hyundai will invest USD 150 million to open factory in Rio, it will be
   HyundaiA's first factory outside of Asia.

   ENERGY

   7)Petrobras, said it has made two oil and natural gas discoveries off the
   coast of Espirito Santo state. The finds were located on the ocean floor,
   about 1,900 meters under water and 115 kilometers from the coast,
   Petrobras said in a press release. They were discovered as a consortium
   led by Petrobras was drilling at two wells known as Pe-de-moleque and
   Quindim. Petrobas expects oil production in the waters off Espirito Santo
   to roughly double by the end of this decade to around
   500,000 barrels per day, company officials have said.

   MILITARY

    

   8)Brazil gave USD 1.7 million to Paraguayan Army to be part of UN
   peacekeeping mission in Haiti, says US cable released by wikileaks. A
   Paraguayan official told the US embassy in Paraguay that this money was
   given when Paraguayan politicians started complaining about Mercosur and
   Itaipu in 2006. The US embassy also said that always when Paraguay starts
   complaining, Brazil gives Paraguay money to make them happy.

    

    

   Tuesday, July 5th 2011 - 06:08 UTC

   President Rousseff relations with 10 party coalition remain strained

   The six-month old administration of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseffa**s
   is again under strain following on her strong character reactions, thus
   casting doubts about the passing of her legislative agenda, which is
   already considerably delayed.

    

   Over the weekend President Rousseff ordered Transport Minister Alfredo
   Nascimento to suspend several of his top aides following on the news
   magazine Vejaclaims the officials were charging a 5% kickback fee on
   projects coming through the ministry.

   A statement issued by Rousseff's office said she a**has confidencea** in
   Nascimento and that he was responsible for investigating the problems at
   the ministry. The president was scheduled to meet the minister this week
   to talk about the matter.

   The allegations and Rousseff's role in the suspensions could trigger more
   friction within the 10 parties that she relies on to pass legislation.
   Nascimento's Party of the Republic is small, but Rousseff's relations with
   bigger parties such as the PMDB have frayed due to disputes over budget
   cuts and appointments to plum government jobs.

   The sour mood in Brasilia, highlighted by the resignation of Rousseff's
   chief of staff last month (Antonio Palloci) amid a separate scandal, has
   paralyzed key reforms such as an overhaul of the tax code, efforts to
   prepare Brazil to host the 2014 World Cup, the controversial forestry bill
   and disputes over the release of documents related to Brazila**s recent
   dictatorial past.

   Making things more complicated Defence Minister Nelson Jobim, a respected
   former magistrate and who held the same post with the administration of
   Lula da Silva lamented before a roomful of legislators last week that he
   has to tolerate an ever-greater number of a**idiots.a**

   Jobim, a PMDB leader, made the comments at an 80th birthday celebration
   for former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, a figurehead of the main
   opposition party. Jobim served as Cardoso's justice minister in the 1990s.

   Jobim also lauded Cardoso for a**never raising his voice toward anyonea**
   and a**never creating tension among his advisersa**, which many observers
   interpreted as a direct criticism of Rousseff, who has a reputation for
   dressing down subordinates in a loud and public fashion.

   After a long meeting with Rousseff on Friday, Jobim said his comments were
   misinterpreted, and that the a**idiotsa** were journalists who disparaged
   Cardoso's legacy.

   Jobim who also opposes declassifying documents from the time of the
   military dictatorship is apparently wishing to retire from government but
   has opted to remain in the job in part because his resignation could
   provoke an even greater crisis between Rousseff and the PMDB, the largest
   party in the ruling coalition.
    Dilma expresA^3 su preocupaciA^3n por las invasiones a los brasiguayos,
   admiten
   5 de Julio de 2011 00:00
   - http://www.abc.com.py/nota/dilma-expreso-su-preocupacion-por-las-invasiones-a-los-brasiguayos-admiten/

   El ministro de Relaciones Exteriores, Jorge Lara Castro, admitiA^3 ayer la
   preocupaciA^3n del Gobierno del Brasil sobre la situaciA^3n de brasiguayos
   del Alto ParanA!, manifestada por la mandataria brasileA+-a Dilma Rousseff
   al presidente Fernando Lugo en la reuniA^3n del Mercosur.

   Lara Castro dijo que la preocupaciA^3n de los denominados brasiguayos es
   la falta de titularidad de la propiedad. SeA+-alA^3 que hay personas que
   habAan adquirido las tierras en el Alto ParanA! de buena fe, pero que los
   tAtulos no estA!n regularizados. a**Se estA! haciendo el esfuerzo
   simultA!neamente para zanjar esa situaciA^3na**, declarA^3 ayer a radio
   Primero de Marzo.

   Se le indicA^3 que se percibe que los invasores de propiedades de
   brasiguayos, denominados campesinos sin tierra, cuentan con la
   protecciA^3n del Gobierno, puesto que se les estarAa proveyendo de
   alimento, ropas, extensiA^3n elA(c)ctrica, entre otras cosas, asA como
   tambiA(c)n protecciA^3n polAtica de algunas autoridades. a**La idea del
   Gobierno no es proteger a los invasores, sino tratar precisamente  de ir
   resolviendo estos problemas que hemos heredadoa**, dijo.

   Preguntado sobre quA(c) harA! la CancillerAa al respecto, puesto que la
   presidenta del Brasil, Dilma Rousseff, manifestA^3 su preocupaciA^3n al
   presidente Fernando Lugo, en ocasiA^3n de una reuniA^3n bilateral que
   mantuvieron la semana pasada en medio de la XLI Cumbre del Mercosur. a**Lo
   que pasa a nivel de ambos gobiernos y ambas cancillerAas, en primer lugar,
   es ponerse de acuerdo si se coincide en puntos fundamentales, y en ese
   sentido hay todo un proceso que se iniciA^3 a los efectos de ir
   resolviendo estos problemasa**, respondiA^3.

   a**Estuve presentea**, dijo Lara Castro

   Preguntado sobre si se enterA^3 de la preocupaciA^3n de la presidenta
   Dilma Rousseff sobre el acoso e invasiones que sufren los brasiguayos en
   el Alto ParanA!, Lara Castro dijo que A(c)l estuvo presente en la
   reuniA^3n de Lugo y Dilma, el pasado miA(c)rcoles en uno de los salones
   del Centro de Convenciones de la Conmebol. a**Yo estuve presentea**,
   manifestA^3 Lara Castro.

   AgregA^3 que asA como las autoridades del Brasil tienen preocupaciones con
   Paraguay, tambiA(c)n nuestro paAs tiene preocupaciones sobre algunos temas
   con el Brasil. MencionA^3 el tema energA(c)tico.

   Seguidamente dijo que la CancillerAa y la Presidencia de la RepA-oblica
   tienen toda la voluntad polAtica para avanzar en la bA-osqueda de
   soluciA^3n a la situaciA^3n planteada. a**Cada quien define sus
   coincidencias a nivel de CancillerAa, a nivel de Presidencia y bueno, lo
   que hacen es sumar esfuerzos para trabajar y de convencer a otros sectores
   que muchas veces tienen otra posiciA^3na**, puntualizA^3.

   ProhAben cosechar la producciA^3n

   En la vAspera se informA^3 que en A*acunday, Alto ParanA!, supuestos
   campesinos sin tierra provenientes del departamento de San Pedro
   impusieron la prohibiciA^3n de iniciar las tareas de cosecha a los
   productores brasiguayos de la zona. Los colonos estA!n desesperados,
   porque temen perder la cosecha, lo que significa la imposibilidad de pagar
   deudas contraAdas con bancos y cooperativas para financiar el cultivo de
   soja. Los productores afectados por esa situaciA^3n solicitaron
   intervenciA^3n del Ministerio PA-oblico y la PolicAa Nacional, exigiendo
   protecciA^3n de sus propiedades y cultivos. Si no hay respuesta de parte
   de los citados organismos, comunicaron que en diez dAas se organizarA!n
   para recuperar sus propiedades invadidas.

   Brazil finmin says will continue to act to curb FX overvaluation

    

   http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/05/brazil-finmin-idUSL6E7I50DK20110705

    

   LONDON, July 5 | Tue Jul 5, 2011 7:31am EDT

   (Reuters) - Brazil will continue to act to restrain the strength of its
   currency with intervention in the futures and derivatives markets among
   its possible options, said the country's finance minister on Tuesday.

   "The government will continue to take measures to contain the
   overvaluation of exchange rate...We've taken measures on reserve
   requirements, we can take measures on derivative and futures. But these
   are not measures we will pre-announce," Guido Mantega told reporters in
   London, via a translator.

   Speaking at the sidelines of an investor conference, Mantega also said no
   credit and capital market bubbles were forming in Latin America's
   largesteconomy despite its robust expansion.

   "As far as inflation is concerned, the rate is decreasing. All indicators
   point to the deceleration of inflation. Next month, inflation will be
   lower because commodity (prices) are lower, fuel and gasoline prices are
   lower," he said.

   Brazil's real closed on Monday at its strongest level against the dollar
   in 12 years with inflows from Asia reportedly boosting the currency.

   "We have always taken measures to adjust growth to our potential...If
   necessary the central bank will keep raising interest rates but that's the
   decision of the central bank," Mantega added.

   The minister said the economy was on track for growth of 4.5 percent --
   higher than the 4.0 percent forecast by the central bank and analysts'
   forecast of 3.94 percent.

   Mantega also said that the country had achieved more than half of its
   primary surplus target this year and that the government's reform agenda
   included reducing investments taxes. (Reporting bySebastian Tong, editing
   by Natsuko Waki)

    

    

                 Chinese capital eyes Brazil's high-tech sector

         

        http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2011-07/05/content_12833004.htm

        By Tuo Yannan (China Daily)
        Updated: 2011-07-05 07:10

         

   RIO DE JANEIRO - China will invest $4.5 billion in Brazil's technology
   sector this year, as Chinese investment in the Latin American country
   shifts from agriculture and mining.

   Chinese investment is expected to hit $9 billion this year, with half of
   it going into high-tech industries, Alessandro Teixeira, deputy minister
   of Brazil's Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade, told
   China Daily.

    

   China has been Brazil's biggest trading partner since 2009, a position
   previously held by the United States.

   Cumulative foreign direct investment (FDI) from China to Brazil reached
   $12.67 billion by the end of 2009, according to Banco Bradesco SA, one of
   Brazil's biggest banks, with agriculture and mining each receiving about
   20 percent.

   Brazil has been urging Chinese companies to invest in non-raw material
   sectors to help balance its economy.

   Teixeira said that Brazil has banned farming businesses established solely
   through foreign investment. The government in Brazil welcomes Chinese
   companies cooperating with Brazilian partners in producing agricultural
   products, such as soybean oil, he said.

   "That is the kind of partnership that China and Brazil are looking forward
   to."

   In 2008, Zhejiang Fudi Agriculture Group and the agricultural bureau of
   Heilongjiang province invested $158.4 million to form a joint venture with
   a Brazilian partner to grow soybean, according to the department of
   commerce in Zhejiang province. The company built two farms, in the north
   and south of Brazil, with a total area of 166.37 hectares.

   China and Brazil regard each other as key partners in their global
   strategy.

   Brazil accounts for 40 percent of Latin America's economy and Teixeira
   predicted that this will rise to 50 percent in the next 10 years.

   Trade between the two countries has increased dramatically during the last
   decade, surging 16-fold between 2001 to 2010.

   "Seventy percent of the trade between Brazil and China is basically
   commodities," Teixeira explained. "But we are keen to improve commercial
   relations in medium and high-end technology."

   China's investment in Brazil was less than $300 million in 2009, but
   skyrocketed to $17 billion in 2010, making China the largest foreign
   investor in Brazil.

   Teixeira said the Brazilian government has reached an agreement with China
   to foster FDI in the high-tech sector.

   "The trend is that China will invest more in the technology sector,"
   Marcos Almeida, a partner at Ernst &amp; Young Terco, told China Daily.

   Chinese companies, such as telecom equipment makers ZTE and Huawei
   Technologies Co, have invested heavily in Brazil in recent years.

   ZTE has set up an industrial park in Hortolandia, close to Sao Paulo. The
   company recorded $600 million in sales revenue last year and is expected
   to reach $1 billion this year.

   "The Brazil market accounts for about 9 percent of ZTE's overseas revenue.
   The country is crucial for our company's development in Latin America,"
   Yuan Lie, president of ZTE South America Region, told China Daily.
   Products from the industrial park will be shipped to other Latin America
   countries, he said.

   Zhuhai Gree Electric Appliances Inc was one of the first Chinese companies
   to enter the Brazilian market in 1998 and now ranks fourth there. It
   invested $2 million to build a manufacturing plant in 1999, with an annual
   output of 300,000 units. Gree sold 400,000 air conditioners in Brazil last
   year and plans to double the number this year while competing with
   international brands such as LG Electronics Inc.

   Teixeira said both Brazil and China need to gain more experience in
   investing abroad.

   "We need to join together as strategic partners to enter new markets."

    04/07/2011 - 14:32

    Agribusiness

  Poultry exports reach US$ 4 billion

   http://www2.anba.com.br/noticia_agronegocios.kmf?cod=12076571

    

   Revenues from foreign sales grew by 28.5% in the first half. The volume
   shipped increased by 6.8%. The Middle East remained the leading market.

   From the Newsroom*

   SA-L-o Paulo a** Brazilian poultry exports reached nearly US$ 4 billion in
   the first half, an increase of 28.5% compared with the same period of last
   year. Approximately 2 million tonnes were shipped, a 6.8% increase using
   the same basis of comparison. The information was disclosed this
   Monday (4th) by the Brazilian Poultry Union (Ubabef, in the Portuguese
   acronym).

   According to a statement issued by the Ubabef, its CEO, Francisco Turra,
   claimed that the growth could have been greater, if it were not for the
   depreciation of the dollar against the real (Brazilian currency), which
   theoretically makes Brazilian products more expensive abroad.

   a**The truth of the matter is that we could have had even stronger growth,
   due to increased international market demand. However, we are losing
   competitiveness by the hour. Thus, we maintain our growth forecast of
   between 3% and 5% in shipments [in 2011],a** said the executive, according
   to the statement.

   The Middle East remained the leading target region for Brazilian exports.
   Revenues from sales to the region totalled US$ 1.36 billion, an increase
   of 31.7% over the first quarter of 2010. A total of 718,000 tonnes were
   shipped, growth of 8.6% using the same basis of comparison.

   Asia ranked second among the target markets for Brazilian products,
   followed by the European Union, Africa, the Americas and non-EU European
   countries.

   Hoje A s 09h46 - Atualizada hoje A s 09h48

      Hyundai instalarA! no Rio de Janeiro primeira fA!brica fora da A*sia

No empreendimento, que deve ficar pronto em 2012, serA-L-o investidos US$ 150
milhAues

    

   http://www.jb.com.br/rio/noticias/2011/07/05/hyundai-instalara-no-rio-de-janeiro-primeira-fabrica-fora-da-asia/

   A Hyundai Heavy Industries vai instalar em Itatiaia, no Sul Fluminense,
   sua primeira fA!brica fora da A*sia. QuestAues como o grande investimento
   em infraestrutura, logAstica favorA!vel e a visibilidade conferida pela
   Copa de 2014 e os Jogos OlAmpicos de 2016 favoreceram a escolha da empresa
   pelo Rio de Janeiro, que saiu A  frente de Minas Gerais e EspArito Santo.

   A unidade, instalada numa A!rea de 550 mil metros quadrados prA^3ximo ao
   quilA'metro 316 da Rodovia Presidente Dutra, produzirA!, por ano, atA(c)
   cinco milmA!quinas para construAS:A-L-o pesada e contarA! ainda com um
   centro de treinamento de mA-L-o-de-obra. A previsA-L-o A(c) que a fA!brica
   seja concluAda no fim de 2012 e gere 1.500 empregos diretos atA(c) 2015,
   quando atingirA! o pico de operaAS:A-L-o. 

   A Hyundai negocia a instalaAS:A-L-o de fornecedores coreanos na regiA-L-o.
   No empreendimento, que conta com o apoio da Companhia de Desenvolvimento
   Industrial do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (Codin) e terA! a Brasil MA!quinas
   como sA^3cia minoritA!ria, serA-L-o investidos US$ 150 milhAues. Com a
   parceria, a parcela brasileira na receita total do grupo saltarA! de 6%
   para 20%. Apesar de o Brasil representar o quarto mercado consumidor da
   Hyundai a** atrA!s de China, RA-ossia e Estados Unidos a** 40% do total da
   produAS:A-L-o serA-L-o exportados, principalmente para paAses das
   AmA(c)ricas Central, do Norte e do Sul.

   Segundo o vice-governador e secretA!rio de obras, Luiz Fernando PezA-L-o,
   que articulou a negociaAS:A-L-o, o alinhamento polAtico entre as trA-as
   esferas de governo possibilita a implementaAS:A-L-o de diversos projetos e
   investimentos, alA(c)m de melhorar a eficiA-ancia dagestA-L-o pA-oblica.

   "Nosso governo trabalha diuturnamente para promover negA^3cios e
   desenvolver a economia do Estado. Vivemos um momento histA^3rico, de
   transformaAS:A-L-o. Essa conjuntura A(c) reflexo da desburocratizaAS:A-L-o
   e do esforAS:o da administraAS:A-L-o estadual em dar mais eficA!cia e
   transparA-ancia A  gestA-L-o. Conseguimos racionalizar e diminuir o tempo
   para a abertura de empresas, alA(c)m de descentralizar o processo para o
   interior, aumentando significativamente o nA-omero de empresas abertas no
   Rio nos A-oltimos anos. A Hyundai A(c) uma delas", afirma PezA-L-o.

   Para Alexandre Germano, do Conselho de AdministraAS:A-L-o da Brasil
   MA!quinas, a localizaAS:A-L-o estratA(c)gica do Rio foi fundamental para a
   instalaAS:A-L-o da unidade no Estado. "Os empresA!rios estrangeiros tA-am
   uma visA-L-o muito positiva sobre o Rio de Janeiro e perceberam que o
   cenA!rio A(c) favorA!vel para grandes investimentos. A Hyundai jA! estA!
   presente no Estado na construAS:A-L-o de estaleiros no Porto do AAS:u, em
   parceria com Eike Batista, e tem grande interesse em expandir seus
   negA^3cios", afirma Germano.

   Today at 9:46 a.m. - Updated today at 9:48 a.m. 
   Hyundai will install in Rio de Janeiro first plant outside of Asia 
   In the enterprise, which should be ready in 2012, will invest U.S. $ 150
   million 

   Hyundai Heavy Industries will install in Itatiaia, Rio de Janeiro State in
   the South, its first plant outside of Asia. Issues such as the large
   investment in infrastructure, favorable logistics and visibility afforded
   by the 2014 World Cup and the Olympics in 2016 favored the selection of
   the company in Rio de Janeiro, which came ahead of Minas Gerais and
   Espirito Santo. 

   The unit, installed in an area of a**a**550 square meters near the 316 km
   from Presidente Dutra highway, will produce per year for up to five
   milmA!quinas heavy construction and will also include a center for
   manpower training. The factory is expected to be completed in late 2012
   and generate 1,500 direct jobs by 2015, when it will peak operation. 

   Hyundai is negotiating the installation of Korean suppliers in the
   region. In the enterprise, which has the support of the Industrial
   Development Company of the State of Rio de Janeiro (Codin) and Brazil have
   the machines as a minority partner, will invest U.S. $ 150 million. With
   the partnership, the Brazilian share in total revenue of the group jumped
   from 6% to 20%. Although Brazil is the fourth Hyundai consumer market -
   behind China, Russia and the United States - 40% of total production is
   exported, mainly to countries of Central, North and South 

   According to the deputy governor and secretary of works, Luiz Fernando
   Bigfoot, who supervised the negotiations, the political alignment between
   the three spheres of government enables the implementation of various
   projects and investments, and improve the efficiency Dagestan public. 

   "Our government daily work to promote business and develop the state's
   economy. We live a historical moment of transformation. This situation
   reflects the bureaucracy and the state government's effort to give more
   effective and transparent management. We were able to streamline and
   shorten the time to start a business, and to decentralize the process to
   the interior, significantly increasing the number of listed companies in
   Rio in recent years. Hyundai is one of them, "said Silva. 

   For Alexandre Germano, the Board of Directors of Brazil machines, the
   strategic location of Rio was instrumental in installing the unit in the
   state. "Foreign businessmen have a very positive view on the Rio de
   Janeiro and realized that the scenario is favorable for large investments.
   Hyundai is already present in the state in building shipyards at the Port
   of Acu, in partnership with Batista, and has great interest in expanding
   their businesses, "said Germano.

   Paulo Gregoire
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
   Paulo Gregoire
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com

Brazil Petrobras Makes Two Oil Finds Off Espirito Santo Coast

   By Paul Kiernan

   Published July 04, 2011

   http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2011/07/04/brazil-petrobras-makes-two-oil-finds-off-espirito-santo-coast/

   AO PAULO -(Dow Jones)- Brazil's state-run oil firm Petroleo Brasileiro SA
   (PBR, PETR4.BR), or Petrobras, said Monday it has made two oil and
   natural gas discoveries off the coast of Espirito Santo state.The finds
   were located on the ocean floor, about 1,900 meters under water and 115
   kilometers from the coast, Petrobras said in a press release. They were
   discovered as a consortium led by Petrobras was drilling at two wells
   known as Pe-de-moleque and Quindim.

   |

   Petrobas expects oil production in the waters off Espirito Santo to
   roughly double by the end of this decade to around
   500,000 barrels per day, company officials have said.

   05/07/2011 - 08h02

   Brasil deu US$ 1,7 mi para militares paraguaios, diz telegrama

   http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/938945-brasil-deu-us-17-mi-para-militares-paraguaios-diz-telegrama.shtml

   Em 2006, o governo brasileiro deu ao ExA(c)rcito do Paraguai uma ajuda de
   US$ 1,7 milhA-L-o para que integrasse a missA-L-o de paz no Haiti, segundo
   telegrama da Embaixada dos EUA em AssunAS:A-L-o.

   O dinheiro foi usado para o conserto de 40 veAculos blindados e a compra
   de equipamentos para 30 militares.

   WikiLeaks processarA! sites de pagamento para receber doaAS:Aues
   Veja especial sobre os telegramas divulgados pelo Wikileaks

   De acordo com documento vazado pelo site WikiLeaks e divulgado pela
   agA-ancia PA-oblica, um militar paraguaio contou aos americanos que o
   apoio surgiu apA^3s crAticas de polAticos do paAs vizinho em relaAS:A-L-o
   ao Mercosul e A  Usina de Itaipu.

   Para a embaixada, sempre que os paraguaios reclamam dessas questAues, o
   Brasil oferece algum dinheiro para "fazA-a-los felizes".

   No mesmo ano, os dois paAses fecharam um memorando de entendimento em Nova
   York para o envio de uma tropa paraguaia com 30 militares para o Haiti.

   Segundo o MinistA(c)rio da Defesa, o acordo existe e desde 2007 o BrasAl
   repassa R$ 120 mil por ano para custear os soldados paraguaios que
   estA-L-o no Haiti.

    

   Brazil gave $ 1.7 million for Paraguayan military said telegram
   In 2006, the Brazilian government gave the Army a Paraguay help of $ 1.7
   million to integrate the peacekeeping mission in Haiti,telegram from U.S.
   Embassy in Asuncion.
   The money was used for the repair of 40 armored vehicles and the purchase
   of military equipment to 30.
   WikiLeaks sites will process payment for donations
   See special about the cables released by Wikileaks
   According to a document leaked by Wikileaks site and published
   by Public Agency, a Paraguayan military told the Americans
   thatsupport came after criticism from politicians from the neighboring
   country in relation to Mercosur and the Itaipu Dam.
   For the embassy, where the Paraguayans claim these issues, Brazil
   offers some money to "make them happy."
   In the same year, the two countries inked a memorandum of understanding in
   New York to send a troop of 30 Paraguayantroops to Haiti.
   According to the Ministry of Defence, the agreement exists since
   2007 and Brazil passes $ 120 thousand per year to pay for theParaguayan
   troops who are in Haiti.

   Paulo Gregoire
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com

   Paulo Gregoire
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 15:54:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-13 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/85155_-latam-brazil-country-brief-am-07052011-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>rbaker@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>paulo.gregoire@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>latam@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:latam@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>85259</id>
    <title>[alpha] Fwd: REP. TREY GOWDY HOLDS A HEARING ON D.C. METRO SAFETY
	AND SECURITY
</title>
    <description>   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: REP. TREY GOWDY HOLDS A HEARING ON D.C. METRO SAFETY AND SECURITY 
      Date: Fri, 1 Jul 2011 10:24:17 -0400                                    
      From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;                      
        To: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;                                 

   Additional press on TrapWire.

    

   http://findarticles.com/p/news-articles/political-transcript-wire/mi_8167/is_20110627/rep-trey-gowdy-holds-hearing/ai_n57743703/pg_5

    

   "......Recognizing that information sharing is critical in both preempting
   and responding to an attack, the MPD maintains daily contact not only with
   Metro Transit and the Amtrak Police in our (fusion) center through the
   intelligence analysts that are co-located with other partners around the
   region. In addition to tracking operational law enforcement activity and
   identifying emerging threats in the (fusion) center, MPD is also engaged
   in the Department of Homeland Security's pilot project of the TrapWire,
   the predictive software system. This system supports the use of our
   suspicious activity reporting to detect patterns of pre-attack
   surveillance and logistical planning......."

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-07-01 16:28:44</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/85259_-alpha-fwd-rep-trey-gowdy-holds-a-hearing-on-d-c-metro.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>85390</id>
    <title>[latam] PUP Brief 110705 - AM
</title>
    <description>   PUP Brief
   110705 - AM

   PARAGUAY
     * Rousseff expressed concern over situation of Brasiguayos during
       sideline meeting with Lugo, according to FM Castro
     * Pres Lugo met with Frente Guasu and some friendly members from PLRA
       after 2 months of paused dialog, re-election bid suspected topic of
       conversation
     * Brazil gave USD 1.7 million to Paraguayan Army to be part of UN
       peacekeeping mission in Haiti, says US cable released by wikileaks
     * Paraguay and Uruguay claim Argentina is obstructing regional power
       agreement
   URUGUAY
     * Paraguay and Uruguay claim Argentina is obstructing regional power
       agreement
     * Idustry at 61% capacity in 1Q of this year
     * Govt to seek stronger presence on the boards of ASSE, BPS and Codicen
       to avoid potential for future conflicts
   PERU
     * Humala arrives in US today to meet with OAS head, meets with Clinton,
       Obama tomorrow
     * Natl Police capture current, pregnant girlfriend of SL leader Camarada
       Artemio
     * US ambassador highlights Humala's determination to fight drug
       trafficking, continue cooperation
     * Peru Posible to support Gana Peru, especially in areas of maintaining
       economic growth, social inclusion and better distribution of resources
       to marginalized sectors
   PARAGUAY
   Dilma expresA^3 su preocupaciA^3n por las invasiones a los brasiguayos,
   admiten
   5 de Julio de 2011 00:00 -
   http://www.abc.com.py/nota/dilma-expreso-su-preocupacion-por-las-invasiones-a-los-brasiguayos-admiten/

   El ministro de Relaciones Exteriores, Jorge Lara Castro, admitiA^3 ayer la
   preocupaciA^3n del Gobierno del Brasil sobre la situaciA^3n de brasiguayos
   del Alto ParanA!, manifestada por la mandataria brasileA+-a Dilma Rousseff
   al presidente Fernando Lugo en la reuniA^3n del Mercosur.

   Lara Castro dijo que la preocupaciA^3n de los denominados brasiguayos es
   la falta de titularidad de la propiedad. SeA+-alA^3 que hay personas que
   habAan adquirido las tierras en el Alto ParanA! de buena fe, pero que los
   tAtulos no estA!n regularizados. a**Se estA! haciendo el esfuerzo
   simultA!neamente para zanjar esa situaciA^3na**, declarA^3 ayer a radio
   Primero de Marzo.

   Se le indicA^3 que se percibe que los invasores de propiedades de
   brasiguayos, denominados campesinos sin tierra, cuentan con la
   protecciA^3n del Gobierno, puesto que se les estarAa proveyendo de
   alimento, ropas, extensiA^3n elA(c)ctrica, entre otras cosas, asA como
   tambiA(c)n protecciA^3n polAtica de algunas autoridades. a**La idea del
   Gobierno no es proteger a los invasores, sino tratar precisamente  de ir
   resolviendo estos problemas que hemos heredadoa**, dijo.

   Preguntado sobre quA(c) harA! la CancillerAa al respecto, puesto que la
   presidenta del Brasil, Dilma Rousseff, manifestA^3 su preocupaciA^3n al
   presidente Fernando Lugo, en ocasiA^3n de una reuniA^3n bilateral que
   mantuvieron la semana pasada en medio de la XLI Cumbre del Mercosur. a**Lo
   que pasa a nivel de ambos gobiernos y ambas cancillerAas, en primer lugar,
   es ponerse de acuerdo si se coincide en puntos fundamentales, y en ese
   sentido hay todo un proceso que se iniciA^3 a los efectos de ir
   resolviendo estos problemasa**, respondiA^3.

   a**Estuve presentea**, dijo Lara Castro

   Preguntado sobre si se enterA^3 de la preocupaciA^3n de la presidenta
   Dilma Rousseff sobre el acoso e invasiones que sufren los brasiguayos en
   el Alto ParanA!, Lara Castro dijo que A(c)l estuvo presente en la
   reuniA^3n de Lugo y Dilma, el pasado miA(c)rcoles en uno de los salones
   del Centro de Convenciones de la Conmebol. a**Yo estuve presentea**,
   manifestA^3 Lara Castro.

   AgregA^3 que asA como las autoridades del Brasil tienen preocupaciones con
   Paraguay, tambiA(c)n nuestro paAs tiene preocupaciones sobre algunos temas
   con el Brasil. MencionA^3 el tema energA(c)tico.

   Seguidamente dijo que la CancillerAa y la Presidencia de la RepA-oblica
   tienen toda la voluntad polAtica para avanzar en la bA-osqueda de
   soluciA^3n a la situaciA^3n planteada. a**Cada quien define sus
   coincidencias a nivel de CancillerAa, a nivel de Presidencia y bueno, lo
   que hacen es sumar esfuerzos para trabajar y de convencer a otros sectores
   que muchas veces tienen otra posiciA^3na**, puntualizA^3.

   ProhAben cosechar la producciA^3n

   En la vAspera se informA^3 que en A*acunday, Alto ParanA!, supuestos
   campesinos sin tierra provenientes del departamento de San Pedro
   impusieron la prohibiciA^3n de iniciar las tareas de cosecha a los
   productores brasiguayos de la zona. Los colonos estA!n desesperados,
   porque temen perder la cosecha, lo que significa la imposibilidad de pagar
   deudas contraAdas con bancos y cooperativas para financiar el cultivo de
   soja. Los productores afectados por esa situaciA^3n solicitaron
   intervenciA^3n del Ministerio PA-oblico y la PolicAa Nacional, exigiendo
   protecciA^3n de sus propiedades y cultivos. Si no hay respuesta de parte
   de los citados organismos, comunicaron que en diez dAas se organizarA!n
   para recuperar sus propiedades invadidas.

   ugo retoma diA!logo con los liberales que aceptan su plan
   5 de Julio de 2011 00:00 -
   http://www.abc.com.py/nota/lugo-retoma-dialogo-con-los-liberales-que-aceptan-su-plan/

   Lugo invitA^3 ayer a almorzar a los liberales mA!s abiertos a su plan de
   reelecciA^3n, Llano y GA^3mez Verlangieri. Participaron ademA!s los
   senadores Carlos Filizzola y Sixto Pereira, impulsores de la enmienda por
   el a**rekutua** presidencial.

   El encuentro fue iniciativa del presidente Fernando Lugo con el fin de
   retomar el diA!logo entre el PLRA y el Frente Guasu (concertaciA^3n
   socialista), luego de dos meses de pausa. No fueron invitados los
   liberales que solAan asistir al almuerzo en la residencia presidencial,
   como es el caso del diputado VActor RAos (efrainista) y los senadores Luis
   A. Wagner y Julio CA(c)sar Franco. Estos, casualmente, mantienen una
   postura contraria a la reelecciA^3n presidencial, lo que serAa el motivo
   de que fueran excluidos del almuerzo.  

   El titular del PLRA, senador Blas Llano; y el vicepresidente del
   Directorio liberal, RamA^3n GA^3mez Verlanguieri, con posiciones mA!s
   ambiguas sobre el tema de la enmienda constitucional pro Lugo, fueron los
   A-onicos del partido convocados por el Presidente.  Por parte del Frente
   Guasu, estuvieron los parlamentarios Filizzola y Pereira, organizadores de
   la campaA+-a de recolecciA^3n de firmas para la enmienda constitucional
   para habilitar a Lugo a competir por un perAodo mA!s. El jefe de gabinete
   de la Presidencia, Miguel LA^3pez Perito tambiA(c)n participA^3 del
   encuentro.  

   Fuentes del Gobierno aseguran que el Presidente se vio obligado a retomar
   el diA!logo semanal con los liberales, atendiendo los A-oltimos
   acontecimientos en el Congreso, donde los opositores lograron apoderarse
   de las mesas directivas de ambas cA!maras del Parlamento.  

   Filizzola comentA^3 que el almuerzo convocado por Lugo fue para retomar el
   diA!logo con las fuerzas que forman parte de la Alianza PatriA^3tica para
   el Cambio (APC). a**Como reinicio del encuentro entre el PLRA y Frente
   Guasu fueron invitados solo dos liberales y dos de la concertaciA^3n
   socialista. La idea es recomenzar el encuentro semanal para volver a
   conversar sobre los proyectos nuevos y viejos que estA!n en el
   Parlamentoa**, dijo el titular de PPS.

   CrAticas

   Lugo suspendiA^3 sugestivamente en mayo el almuerzo semanal que suele
   compartir con referentes del PLRA y la izquierda, en coincidencia con las
   duras crAticas que provienen de dirigentes azules por su proyecto de
   reelecciA^3n. Una de las inquietudes del sector liberal consistAa en que
   el Presidente comenzA^3 a incluir a los dirigentes socialistas en las
   reuniones que mantenAa con el partido. En el A-oltimo encuentro Lugo-PLRA
   se conversA^3 sobre  refundar la Alianza con miras al 2013 y la
   elaboraciA^3n de un plan programA!tico para el prA^3ximo perAodo, ademA!s
   de ver los proyectos a ser financiados con los US$ 240 millones  de
   Brasil.  

   Lugo returns to dialogue with the Liberals who accept their plan

   Lugo lunch yesterday invited the liberals more open to his plan for
   re-election, Llano and GA^3mez Verlangieri. Senators also attended
   Filizzola and Sixto Carlos Pereira, proponents of the amendment by the
   "rekutu" presidential.

   Plain and Lugo had lunch yesterday in Mburuvicha Roga. This time, the
   liberal anti-re not invited.
   The meeting was initiated by President Fernando Lugo in order to resume
   the dialogue between the PLRA and the Front Guasu (social partnership),
   after two month break. Liberals were not invited to attend the lunch that
   used in the presidential residence, such as deputy VActor RAos (Ephraim)
   and Senators Luis A. Wagner and Julio Cesar Franco. These, incidentally,
   remain a stand against presidential reelection, which would be the reason
   they were excluded from lunch.

   The owner of the PLRA, Senator Blas Llano, and the Vice president of
   liberal, RamA^3n GA^3mez Verlanguieri with ambiguous positions on the
   issue of the constitutional amendment pro Lugo, were the only party
   convened by the President. On the Front Guasu parliamentarians were
   Filizzola and Pereira, organizers of the campaign to collect signatures
   for a constitutional amendment to enable Lugo to compete for a longer
   period. The chief of staff of the President, Miguel Lopez Perito also
   attending the meeting.

   Government sources say the President was forced to resume talks with the
   liberal weekly, following the latest developments in Congress, where
   opponents were able to seize the boards of both houses of Parliament.

   Filizzola said that lunch was organized by Lugo to resume dialogue with
   the forces that are part of the Patriotic Alliance for Change (APC). "I
   reset the encounter between the PLRA and Guasu Front were invited only two
   Liberals and two social dialogue. The idea is to restart the weekly
   meeting to return to discuss new and old projects that are in parliament,
   "said the head of PPS.

   Reviews

   Lugo suggestively in May suspended the weekly lunch usually share
   concerning the PLRA and the left, to coincide with the harsh criticisms
   that come from blue for their project leaders for reelection. One of the
   concerns of the liberal was that the President began to include the
   socialist leaders in the meetings he had with the game. At the last
   meeting they discussed Lugo-PLRA on reshaping the Alliance with a view to
   2013 and developing a programmatic plan for the next period, and view the
   projects to be funded with $ 240 million in Brazil.

         Brasil deu US$ 1,7 mi para militares paraguaios, diz telegrama

   http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/938945-brasil-deu-us-17-mi-para-militares-paraguaios-diz-telegrama.shtml

   Em 2006, o governo brasileiro deu ao ExA(c)rcito do Paraguai uma ajuda de
   US$ 1,7 milhA-L-o para que integrasse a missA-L-o de paz no Haiti, segundo
   telegrama da Embaixada dos EUA em AssunAS:A-L-o.

   O dinheiro foi usado para o conserto de 40 veAculos blindados e a compra
   de equipamentos para 30 militares.

   WikiLeaks processarA! sites de pagamento para receber doaAS:Aues
   Veja especial sobre os telegramas divulgados pelo Wikileaks

   De acordo com documento vazado pelo site WikiLeaks e divulgado pela
   agA-ancia PA-oblica, um militar paraguaio contou aos americanos que o
   apoio surgiu apA^3s crAticas de polAticos do paAs vizinho em relaAS:A-L-o
   ao Mercosul e A  Usina de Itaipu.

   Para a embaixada, sempre que os paraguaios reclamam dessas questAues, o
   Brasil oferece algum dinheiro para "fazA-a-los felizes".

   No mesmo ano, os dois paAses fecharam um memorando de entendimento em Nova
   York para o envio de uma tropa paraguaia com 30 militares para o Haiti.

   Segundo o MinistA(c)rio da Defesa, o acordo existe e desde 2007 o BrasAl
   repassa R$ 120 mil por ano para custear os soldados paraguaios que
   estA-L-o no Haiti.

   Brazil gave $ 1.7 million for Paraguayan military said telegram
   In 2006, the Brazilian government gave the Army a Paraguay help of $ 1.7
   million to integrate the peacekeeping mission in Haiti,telegram from U.S.
   Embassy in Asuncion.
   The money was used for the repair of 40 armored vehicles and the purchase
   of military equipment to 30.
   WikiLeaks sites will process payment for donations
   See special about the cables released by Wikileaks
   According to a document leaked by Wikileaks site and published
   by Public Agency, a Paraguayan military told the Americans
   thatsupport came after criticism from politicians from the neighboring
   country in relation to Mercosur and the Itaipu Dam.
   For the embassy, where the Paraguayans claim these issues, Brazil
   offers some money to "make them happy."
   In the same year, the two countries inked a memorandum of understanding in
   New York to send a troop of 30 Paraguayantroops to Haiti.
   According to the Ministry of Defence, the agreement exists since
   2007 and Brazil passes $ 120 thousand per year to pay for theParaguayan
   troops who are in Haiti.

   Paraguay and Uruguay claim Argentina is obstructing regional power
   agreement
   July 5th 2011 - 00:20 UTC -
   http://en.mercopress.com/2011/07/05/paraguay-and-uruguay-claim-argentina-is-obstructing-regional-power-agreement

   Argentina is delaying the sale of Paraguayan power to the Uruguayan market
   (which must cross Argentine territory) for reasons a**as least publiclya**
   unknown for both sides interested in the deal, according to the Uruguayan
   and Paraguayan press.

   Argentinaa**s Julio De Vido, the a**bad guya** of the picture
   Argentinaa**s Julio De Vido, the a**bad guya** of the picture

   a**Both countries are quite disappointed with Argentinaa**s attitudea**
   since last March it was agreed, at a regional energy summit to begin
   implementing the agreement but a**so far things remain unchangeda** said
   the press reports.

   Paraguay has a surplus of power, given the huge hydroelectric complexes it
   shares with Brazil and Argentina, Itaipu and Yacireta, and Uruguay is
   short of power because of increased residential consumption and several
   major industries that have established in the country.

   However transporting the surplus electricity from land-locked Paraguay to
   Uruguay it means making use of the Argentine grid.

   Paraguayan Deputy mining and Energy minister Mercedes Canese said a**there
   are only a few details in the contract that need polishing, and this
   should mean no impediment to begin the sale of power to Uruguaya**.

   Furthermore Paraguay that hosted the last Mercosur presidential summit at
   the end of June was most surprised when the Argentine president Cristina
   Fernandez did not turn up after at last minute cancel alleging medical
   reasons.

   This had led diplomats from Paraguay and Uruguay to believe Mrs Kirchner
   was not interested in having to address the issue with her peers Jose
   Mujica and Fernando Lugo.

   a**The only thing missing for power to begin flowing is that President
   Cristina Fernandez tells the engineers the authorization has been
   approveda**, said Paraguayan diplomatic sources.

   Deputy minister Mercedes Canese said Paraguay was willing to pay Argentina
   10 US dollars per MW/hour for grid toll concepts, a**since this is the
   regional rate for other operators and the rate can not be higher for
   Paraguaya**.

   Apparently the Uruguayan government is also furious with Argentine Federal
   Planning Minister Julio De Vido who first refused to have the agreement
   included in a joint declaration, later said a three sides committee was
   unnecessary and later he appeals a**to the resource of blaming
   alternatively the Uruguayans or the Paraguayans for ignoring rules for the
   inter-connectiona**.

   Apparently another excuse from the Argentines to Uruguay is that Paraguay
   a**cana**t demonstrate that the power does not come from the YaciretA!
   hydroelectric dam, since surplus from that dam can only be sold to
   Argentina under existing contract clausesa**.

   In reality the Paraguayan power is to come from a smaller dam, Acaray,
   which is not part either of the ItaipA-o or YaciretA! complexes.

   But Uruguayan sources believe the obstacles can be tracked not to
   technical or economic issues but simply because the a**administration of
   President Cristina Kirchner wants Paraguay to have an only client for its
   power, the Argentine marketa**.

   a**Step by step technical problems have been solved and now we are in the
   stage of negotiations with Argentina, and solving existent legal problems;
   the energy problem is a regional challenge and we are focused on ita**,
   said Uruguayan Foreign Affaire minister Luis Almagro when asked about the
   delay.

   More bluntly Paraguayan Deputy Minister Canese says ita**s all up to De
   Vido, a**he keeps presenting the Uruguayans with unacceptable terms and
   only wants to ensure Paraguay becomes a prisoner of Argentina for its
   electricity exporta**.

   URUGUAY
   Paraguay and Uruguay claim Argentina is obstructing regional power
   agreement
   July 5th 2011 - 00:20 UTC -
   http://en.mercopress.com/2011/07/05/paraguay-and-uruguay-claim-argentina-is-obstructing-regional-power-agreement

   Argentina is delaying the sale of Paraguayan power to the Uruguayan market
   (which must cross Argentine territory) for reasons a**as least publiclya**
   unknown for both sides interested in the deal, according to the Uruguayan
   and Paraguayan press.

   Argentinaa**s Julio De Vido, the a**bad guya** of the picture
   Argentinaa**s Julio De Vido, the a**bad guya** of the picture

   a**Both countries are quite disappointed with Argentinaa**s attitudea**
   since last March it was agreed, at a regional energy summit to begin
   implementing the agreement but a**so far things remain unchangeda** said
   the press reports.

   Paraguay has a surplus of power, given the huge hydroelectric complexes it
   shares with Brazil and Argentina, Itaipu and Yacireta, and Uruguay is
   short of power because of increased residential consumption and several
   major industries that have established in the country.

   However transporting the surplus electricity from land-locked Paraguay to
   Uruguay it means making use of the Argentine grid.

   Paraguayan Deputy mining and Energy minister Mercedes Canese said a**there
   are only a few details in the contract that need polishing, and this
   should mean no impediment to begin the sale of power to Uruguaya**.

   Furthermore Paraguay that hosted the last Mercosur presidential summit at
   the end of June was most surprised when the Argentine president Cristina
   Fernandez did not turn up after at last minute cancel alleging medical
   reasons.

   This had led diplomats from Paraguay and Uruguay to believe Mrs Kirchner
   was not interested in having to address the issue with her peers Jose
   Mujica and Fernando Lugo.

   a**The only thing missing for power to begin flowing is that President
   Cristina Fernandez tells the engineers the authorization has been
   approveda**, said Paraguayan diplomatic sources.

   Deputy minister Mercedes Canese said Paraguay was willing to pay Argentina
   10 US dollars per MW/hour for grid toll concepts, a**since this is the
   regional rate for other operators and the rate can not be higher for
   Paraguaya**.

   Apparently the Uruguayan government is also furious with Argentine Federal
   Planning Minister Julio De Vido who first refused to have the agreement
   included in a joint declaration, later said a three sides committee was
   unnecessary and later he appeals a**to the resource of blaming
   alternatively the Uruguayans or the Paraguayans for ignoring rules for the
   inter-connectiona**.

   Apparently another excuse from the Argentines to Uruguay is that Paraguay
   a**cana**t demonstrate that the power does not come from the YaciretA!
   hydroelectric dam, since surplus from that dam can only be sold to
   Argentina under existing contract clausesa**.

   In reality the Paraguayan power is to come from a smaller dam, Acaray,
   which is not part either of the ItaipA-o or YaciretA! complexes.

   But Uruguayan sources believe the obstacles can be tracked not to
   technical or economic issues but simply because the a**administration of
   President Cristina Kirchner wants Paraguay to have an only client for its
   power, the Argentine marketa**.

   a**Step by step technical problems have been solved and now we are in the
   stage of negotiations with Argentina, and solving existent legal problems;
   the energy problem is a regional challenge and we are focused on ita**,
   said Uruguayan Foreign Affaire minister Luis Almagro when asked about the
   delay.

   More bluntly Paraguayan Deputy Minister Canese says ita**s all up to De
   Vido, a**he keeps presenting the Uruguayans with unacceptable terms and
   only wants to ensure Paraguay becomes a prisoner of Argentina for its
   electricity exporta**.

   La industria tiene un 39% de capacidad ociosa
   Se debe a factores de competitividad interna y externa
   5.7.2011 -
   http://www.elpais.com.uy/110705/pecono-577712/economia/la-industria-tiene-un-39-de-capacidad-ociosa/

   La industria tuvo una capacidad ociosa de 39% en el primer trimestre del
   aA+-o debido a aspectos vinculados a la competitividad, en el mercado
   interno y externo mayormente, y a razones estacionales.

   Eso se desprende del indicador de UtilizaciA^3n de Capacidad Instalada
   (UCI) que elabora la CA!mara de Industrias en base a encuestas a 96
   empresas del sector (se excluye a la refinerAa de Ancap, UPM y Pepsi) que
   fue divulgado ayer.

   De acuerdo el relevamiento, en el primer trimestre del aA+-o la industria
   utilizA^3 el 61% de su capacidad instalada, un nivel similar al del primer
   trimestre de 2010 cuando fue de 62%.

   La CA!mara de Industrias seA+-alA^3 que "de todas formas estos niveles se
   encuentran por debajo de los verificados en los A-oltimos aA+-os, a
   excepciA^3n de 2009, perAodo de mayor afectaciA^3n de la producciA^3n
   industrial con motivo de la profundizaciA^3n de la crisis internacional".
   En el primer trimestre de 2007 la UCI fue de 68%, en igual perAodo de 2008
   fue de 67% y en enero-marzo de 2009 el uso de la capacidad cayA^3 a 52%.

   De acuerdo al tamaA+-o de la industria, en el caso de las grandes
   empresas, la UCI en el primer trimestre del aA+-o fue de 67% mientras que
   en igual perAodo de 2010 era de 71%. Las pequeA+-as y medianas industrias
   mejoraron la utilizaciA^3n de su capacidad de 48% en el primer trimestre
   de 2010 a 50% en igual lapso de este aA+-o.

   La gremial empresarial tambiA(c)n consultA^3 a los industriales sobre los
   motivos para producir por debajo de la capacidad plena, pudiendo estos
   seleccionar mA!s de una opciA^3n de una lista.

   Con casi un 20% de las respuestas, se ubicaron en primer lugar los
   "aspectos vinculados a la competitividad en el mercado interno". Este "se
   mantiene desde informes anteriores co-mo el principal impedimento para no
   aprovechar plenamente la capacidad potencial, especialmente en aquellas
   empresas de QuAmicos y plA!sticos y Textil, vestimenta y cuero", destaca
   la CA!mara de Industrias.

   En segundo lugar, con casi un 16% aparecen "aspectos vinculados a la
   competitividad en los mercados externos". Los que mA!s mencionan esta
   razA^3n son las firmas de la metalurgia.

   El tercer factor con cerca de 10% de respuestas fue el "estacional".
   Siendo las industrias de Papel e imprentas, Alimentos, bebidas y tabaco
   las que mA!s lo mencionan.

   La "insuficiencia de oferta de materia prima" fue la cuarta razA^3n con
   mA!s menciones.

   The industry has 39% spare capacity
   It is due to factors internal and external competitiveness

   The industry had excess capacity of 39% in the first quarter due to
   aspects related to competitiveness in the domestic market and mostly
   external, and seasonal reasons.

   This indicator shows the capacity utilization (ICU) prepared by the
   Chamber of Industries based on surveys of 96 companies (excluding the
   ANCAP refinery, PSU and Pepsi) that was released yesterday.

   According to the survey, in the first quarter of the industry used 61% of
   its installed capacity, a level similar to the first quarter of 2010 when
   it was 62%.

   The Chamber of Industry said that "in any case, these levels are below
   those observed in recent years, except 2009, a period of greater
   involvement of the industrial production because of the deepening
   international crisis." In the first quarter of 2007, the ICU was 68%
   during the same period in 2008 was 67% and in January-March 2009, capacity
   utilization fell to 52%.

   According to the size of the industry, in the case of large companies, the
   ICU in the first quarter was 67% while in the same period in 2010 was 71%.
   Small and medium industries improved capacity utilization of 48% in the
   first quarter of 2010 to 50% in the same period this year.

   The business association also consulted the industry about the reasons to
   produce below full capacity, these can select more than one option from a
   list.

   With almost 20% of respondents were located in the first place "aspects
   related to competitiveness in the domestic market." This "is maintained
   from previous reports co-mo a major impediment to not fully exploit the
   potential, especially in chemical companies and plastics and textiles,
   clothing and leather," says the Chamber of Industries.

   Secondly, with nearly 16% are "aspects related to competitiveness in
   foreign markets." The most mentioned this reason are the signatures of
   metallurgy.

   The third factor of around 10% response was "seasonal." Being the paper
   and printing industries, food, beverages and snuff the most mention.

   The "insufficient supply of raw materials" was the fourth reason more
   mentions.

   El gobierno quiere recuperar control polAtico en ASSE, BPS y Codicen
   5.7.2011 -
   http://www.larepublica.com.uy/politica/460876-el-gobierno-quiere-recuperar-control-politico-en-asse-bps-y-codicen

   Mujica encomendA^3 al Ministerio de Trabajo hallar una soluciA^3n a
   eventuales problemas de gobernabilidad en algunos organismos del Estado
   debido a la minorAa numA(c)rica de los jerarcas del gobierno. No
   prosperarAa aumentar el nA-omero de directores. Se evalA-oa el voto doble
   de los presidentes de los organismos.

   La integraciA^3n de los directorios y su funcionamiento en algunos
   organismos del Estado ha encendido una luz roja en el gobierno al advertir
   que en ellos hay "serios problemas de gestiA^3n" al punto que se evalA-oa
   que "estA! en riesgo la gobernabilidad". Este tema fue uno de los
   analizados ayer en la reuniA^3n semanal del Consejo de ministros y en ese
   mismo A!mbito se esbozaron algunas vAas que apuntan a una soluciA^3n
   futura. El presidente JosA(c) Mujica fue quien ayer encomendA^3 al
   ministro de Trabajo, Eduardo Brenta, buscar una soluciA^3n al problema que
   se avizora, porque se quieren evitar inconvenientes en la ejecuciA^3n de
   las polAticas generales del gobierno en A!reas sensibles como la salud, la
   educaciA^3n y la seguridad social. Precisamente son en los directorios de
   estas tres A!reas en donde se quieren aventar inconvenientes a la hora de
   implementar las polAticas del gobierno: ASSE, Codicen y Banco de
   PrevisiA^3n Social. En los directorios de estos tres organismos el
   gobierno estA! en minorAa numA(c)rica.

   Voceros del gobierno confiaron anoche que Mujica propuso buscar un
   mecanismo que le conceda al presidente de los directorios, donde el
   gobierno estA! en minorAa, la potestad del doble voto, aunque esta
   fA^3rmula no asegura supremacAa oficial porque podrAa resultar aA-on asA
   en un empate en las decisiones finales. El presidente no es partidario de
   ampliar de 5 a 7 el nA-omero de directores como se propone en un proyecto
   que estarAa siendo redactado por el diputado del MPP A*lvaro Vega.

   Una alta fuente del Poder Ejecutivo considerA^3 que la presencia de la
   oposiciA^3n y de los representantes sociales en los directorios de los
   organismos fue "un mecanismo muy positivo" promovido en su momento por el
   presidente Mujica, "pero la oposiciA^3n y los actores sociales estA!n para
   controlar y no para dirigir". No obstante se estima que "gobierno y
   oposiciA^3n arribaremos seguramente a un acuerdo" con el fin de evitar
   problemas de gestiA^3n. El senador Enrique Rubio (FA) fue representante
   del gobierno cuando al inicio de la actual administraciA^3n se negociA^3
   con la oposiciA^3n la integraciA^3n en los directorios de los organismos.
   Rubio asegurA^3 anoche a LA REPA*BLICA, que "si no aplicamos cambios en la
   integraciA^3n en ASSE, se pone en riesgo el Sistema Nacional de Salud".
   CalificA^3 que los directores sociales en ASSE implementan una polAtica de
   "corporativismo" y que "si bien no tiene por quA(c) compartir los
   criterios del gobierno, tampoco pueden pretender que no haya posibilidades
   de avanzar en los lineamientos polAticos del Poder Ejecutivo que es el que
   votA^3 la gente".

   En cuanto a la ANEP, otro de los organismos donde el gobierno estA! en
   minorAa, la consejera Nora Castro dijo a este diario que allA "no hay
   problemas de funcionamiento" y que existe "plena conjunciA^3n de
   esfuerzos" entre los directores y los consejeros del orden docente. "Nadie
   puede decir que los docentes son corporativistas. Eso es una difamaciA^3n"
   sostuvo. Por su parte, el presidente del BPS Ernesto Murro prefiriA^3 no
   hacer comentarios.

   DATOS

   Doce son los entes autA^3nomos y siete los servicios descentralizados en
   los que participa la oposiciA^3n compartiendo el directorio con
   representantes del gobierno.

   Era una tradiciA^3n que los organismos fueran integrados por cuota
   polAtica. Durante aA+-os, blancos y colorados se repartAan los cargos.

   ReciA(c)n entre 1985 y 1989 el FA pudo ingresar a los organismos. En el
   pasado gobierno del Frente Amplio la oposiciA^3n no acordA^3 la
   representatividad y en esta administraciA^3n la oposiciA^3n aceptA^3
   integrar los directorios.

   The government wants to regain political control in ASSE, BPS and codices

   Mujica instructed the Ministry of Labour to find a solution to any
   problems of governance in some state agencies because of the numerical
   minority in the government hierarchy. Not succeed to increase the number
   of directors. Evaluate the double vote of the presidents of organisms.

   The integration of directories and their operation in some government
   agencies have turned on a red light on the government to see that in them
   "serious management problems" to the extent that it assesses that
   "governance is at risk." This issue was one of those tested yesterday at
   the weekly meeting of the Council of Ministers and in the same field
   outlined some ways that point to a future solution. President JosA(c)
   Mujica was who yesterday instructed the Labour Minister Eduardo Brenta to
   find a solution to the problem that is looming, because they want to avoid
   problems in implementing the government's general policy in sensitive
   areas such as health, education and social security. It is exactly on the
   boards of these three areas in which you want to throw difficulties in
   implementing the government policy: ASSE, codices and BPS. On the boards
   of these three government agencies are in numerical minority.

   Government spokesmen last night Mujica relied find a mechanism proposed to
   grant the president of the directories, where the government is in
   minority, the power of double voting, but this formula does not ensure
   official supremacy because it could result in a tie still in final
   decisions. The president is not keen to expand from 5 to 7 the number of
   directors as proposed in a project that would be written by the deputy of
   MPP Alvaro Vega.

   A high source of the Administration believes that the presence of the
   opposition and representatives on the boards of social agencies was "a
   very positive mechanism" promoted at the time by President Mujica, "but
   the opposition and social actors are to control and not to direct. "
   However it is estimated that "government and opposition will surely arrive
   at an agreement" in order to avoid management problems. Senator Enrique
   Rubio (FA) was representative of the government when the start of the
   current administration negotiated with the opposition to integration on
   the boards of the agencies. Rubio said last night the Republic, "if we do
   not apply changes in the integration ASSE is threatening the NHS". The
   directors called ASSE implement a social policy of "corporatism" and that
   "although it need not share the government's criteria, they can not
   pretend that there is no chance of advancing in the political guidelines
   of the Executive Branch is to vote the people. "

   As for ANEP, other agencies where the government is in the minority, the
   Minister Nora Castro told this newspaper that there "is no problem of
   operation" and that there is "full joint efforts" between principals and
   counselors teaching order. "Nobody can say that teachers are corporatist.
   This is a libel" he said. For his part, President Ernesto Murro BPS
   declined comment.

   DATA

   Twelve are autonomous entities and decentralized services seven
   participating in the opposition share the directory with government
   representatives.

   It was a tradition that the bodies were composed of political quota. For
   years, white and red were distributed charges.

   Just between 1985 and 1989, the FA could enter the bodies. In the past
   government of the Frente Amplio opposition representative did not agree to
   this administration and the opposition agreed to join the boards.

   PERU
   Perua**s president-elect to meet OAS chief in US
   http://www.andina.com.pe/Ingles/Noticia.aspx?Id=t3wk4efLK6g=

   Lima, Jul. 04 (ANDINA). Peruvian President-elect Ollanta Humala will meet
   with the Secretary General of the Organization of American States (OAS),
   Jose Miguel Insulza, during his two-day visit to Washington this week.

   According to Humalaa**s Gana PerA-o party, the president-elect will arrive
   in Washington on Tuesday,        July 5, at around 20.35 hours.

   On Wednesday morning, he will hold talks with OAS Secretary General Jose
   Miguel Insulza and then with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

   In the afternoon of the same day, Humala is scheduled to meet with US
   President Barack Obama at the White House.

   Ollanta Humala will return to Peru late  on Thursday, July 7.

   CayA^3 pareja de camarada "Artemio" con siete meses de embarazo
   La PolicAa asegura que Elisa Culantres CA^3rdova (25) participA^3 en
   varios acciones terroristas entre diciembre del 2005 y junio del 2007
   04 de julio de 2011 - 06:17 pm -
   http://elcomercio.pe/peru/840055/noticia-cayo-pareja-camaradaartemio-siete-meses-embarazo

   (Andina). La DirecciA^3n Contra el Terrorismo (Dircote) presentA^3 esta
   tarde a Elisa MA^3nica Culantres CA^3rdova (25), actual pareja del
   camarada a**Artemioa** y gestante de siete meses, quien fue detenida por
   delito de terrorismo el 2 de julio cuando caminaba por el parque del
   asentamiento humano 30 de Agosto en Villa MarAa del Triunfo.

   El jefe de la referida direcciA^3n policial, TomA!s Guibert SagA!stegui,
   informA^3 que Culantres CA^3rdova integra la organizaciA^3n terrorista
   Sendero Luminoso y fue capturada tras un paciente seguimiento realizado
   con apoyo de la DirecciA^3n Antidrogas y de Inteligencia de la PolicAa
   Nacional.

   En conferencia de prensa, el director de la Dircote detallA^3 que en el
   domicilio de Culantres, en la calle Guardia Civil del referido distrito,
   se incautaron seis fotografAas de su anterior pareja, Juan Laguna, mando
   militar de la referida organizaciA^3n fallecido en el 2008.

   TambiA(c)n se encontraron dos fotografAas de Cristhian Isminio RodrAguez,
   tambiA(c)n miembro de SL; tres celulares, dos tarjetas de memoria para
   cA!maras fotogrA!ficas, asA como dos memorias USB que vienen siendo
   analizados.

   Guibert SagA!stegui recordA^3 que Culantres CA^3rdova, alias a**Evelyna**
   o a**Leidia**, fue integrante del EjA(c)rcito Guerrillero Popular y
   participA^3 en distintos actos terroristas entre diciembre de 2005 y junio
   de 2007. AdemA!s, estA! mencionada en atestados policiales de los aA+-os
   2007, 2008, 2009 y 2011 en calidad de no habida.

   En dichos actos fallecieron 11 policAas, un fiscal y un trabajador del
   Proyecto Especial de Control y ReducciA^3n de Cultivos Ilegales de Coca en
   el Alto Huallaga (Corah), y otros policAas resultaron heridos.

   a**La intervenida registra dos requisitorias pendientes por el delito de
   terrorismo en el Cuarto Juzgado de InstrucciA^3n de HuA!nuco, en mayo de
   2007, y en el Primer Juzgado Supra Provincial de Lima, en diciembre de
   2009a**, seA+-alA^3 Guibert SagA!stegui, al precisar que todas las
   diligencias se realizan con representantes de la FiscalAa.

   Tras la conferencia tambiA(c)n se presentA^3 el material promocional sobre
   las recompensas de hasta un millA^3n de soles que se ofrece a las personas
   que brinden informaciA^3n que permita la ubicaciA^3n de los terroristas.

   Los afiches, trApticos y volantes serA!n distribuidos en el valle del rAo
   Huallaga. Guibert SagA!stegui recordA^3 que la identidad de las personas
   que denuncien a los miembros de SL serA! protegida.

   Fell couple comrade "Artemio" seven months pregnant
   Police said that Coriander Elisa Cordova (25) participated in various
   terrorist actions between December 2005 and June 2007

   (Andina). The Directorate Against Terrorism (Dircote) presented this
   afternoon at Coriander Monica Elisa Cordova (25), current partner of
   Comrade "Artemio" and seven months pregnant, who was arrested on charges
   of terrorism on July 2 as he walked through the park August 30 slums in
   Villa Maria del Triunfo.

   The head of that police leadership, Thomas Sagdstegui Guibert, Coriander
   CA^3rdova reported that integrates the Shining Path terrorist organization
   and was captured after a patient monitoring carried out with support from
   the Drug Enforcement and Intelligence Directorate of the National Police.

   At a press conference, the director of the Dircote explained that the home
   of coriander, Civil Guard on the streets of that district, seized six
   photographs of his former partner, Juan Laguna, military commander of that
   organization died in 2008.

   We also found two photographs of Ismini Cristhian Rodriguez, also a member
   of SL, three phones, two memory cards for cameras, as well as two USB
   drives that are being analyzed.

   Guibert said that Coriander Sagdstegui Cordova, alias "Evelyn" or "Leidi"
   was a member of the People's Guerrilla Army and participated in various
   terrorist acts between December 2005 and June 2007. It is also mentioned
   in police reports for the years 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2011 as not having.

   Such acts were killed 11 police officers, a prosecutor and an employee of
   the Special Project for Control and Reduction of illegal coca crops in the
   Upper Huallaga (Corah), and other policemen were wounded.

   "The outstanding requisitions operated two records for the crime of
   terrorism in the Fourth Court of Instruction of Huanuco, in May 2007 and
   the First Court Supra Provincial de Lima in December 2009," said Guibert
   Sagdstegui, stipulating that all proceedings are conducted with
   representatives of the Office.

   After the conference also featured promotional material about the rewards
   of up to a million suns that offered to people who provide information
   leading to the location of the terrorists.

   Posters, leaflets and flyers will be distributed in the Huallaga River
   valley. Sagdstegui Guibert said that the identity of persons reporting to
   m

   Estados Unidos destaca determinaciA^3n de Humala de luchar contra el
   narcotrA!fico
   4 julio 2011 - 5:02 pm -
   http://www.inforegion.pe/portada/107022/estados-unidos-destaca-determinacion-de-humala-de-luchar-contra-el-narcotrafico/

   La embajadora de los Estados Unidos en PerA-o, Rose M. Likins, precisA^3
   que su gobierno buscarA! colaborar con la administraciA^3n del presidente
   Ollanta Humala para que tenga A(c)xito en su determinaciA^3n de luchar
   contra el narcotrA!fico.

   Likins enfatizA^3 que Humala Tasso ha sido muy claro en su compromiso en
   la lucha antidrogas, en su diA!logo con las diferentes autoridades
   norteamericanas.

   a**Lo que me consta a mA son las declaraciones que ha hecho a nuestro
   gobierno, tanto en su conversaciA^3n con la (secretaria de Estado)
   seA+-ora (Hillary) Clinton y sus conversaciones conmigo, de que tiene toda
   la intenciA^3n de luchar en contra de esa criminalidada**, puntualizA^3 la
   diplomA!tica.

   ConsiderA^3 que esa posiciA^3n del gobernante electo es muy importante.
   a**Es un esfuerzo importante, sus comentarios  en cuanto a su
   determinaciA^3n de enfrentar el problema de la criminalidad y producciA^3n
   ilAcita de la drogas, son bienvenidos, y nosotros vamos a seguir buscando
   la manera de colaborar con su gobierno; A(c)l ha sido muy claro en sus
   declaraciones en contra (del narcotrA!fico)a**, recalcA^3.

   En ese sentido saludA^3 la disposiciA^3n de presidente electo de viajar a
   su paAs y se mostrA^3 convencida que ello fortalecerA! las relaciones
   bilaterales.

   Agenda

   Rose likins precisA^3 que  no estA! en agenda una reuniA^3n del presidente
   electo peruano con el presidente Barack Obama.

   En cambio indicA^3 que en la agenda de Humala en Washington contempla
   reuniones en el Departamento de Estado y con el staff de la Casa Blanca.
    MencionA^3 que en la Casa Blanca se reunirA! con el asesor de Seguridad
   Nacional, Tom Donilon.

   U.S. highlights Humala determination to fight drug trafficking

   The U.S. ambassador in Peru, Rose M. Likins, said that his government will
   seek to collaborate with the administration of President Ollanta Humala to
   be successful in their determination to fight drug trafficking.

   Likins emphasized that Humala Tasso has been very clear in its commitment
   to the fight against drugs in its dialogue with the various U.S.
   authorities.

   "What I know for me are the statements he has made to our government, both
   in his conversation with the (Secretary of State) Mrs. (Hillary) Clinton
   and his conversations with me, you have every intention of fighting
   against this crime, "stated the diplomat.

   He considered that the position of president-elect is very important.
   "It's a major effort, his comments in their determination to face the
   problem of crime and illicit production of drugs, are welcome, and we will
   continue seeking ways to collaborate with his government, he has been very
   clear statements against (drug), "he said.

   In this respect welcomed the willingness of President-elect to travel to
   his country and was convinced that this will strengthen bilateral
   relations.

   Agenda

   Rose Likins said that is not on the agenda of a meeting with Peruvian
   President-elect Barack Obama president.

   On the other hand indicated that Humala's agenda includes meetings in
   Washington in the State Department and the White House staff. He said at
   the White House to meet with National Security Advisor, Tom Donilon.

   Toledo ratifica respaldo a Humala
   5.7.2011 -
   http://www.larepublica.pe/archive/all/larepublica/20110705/3/node/365050/todos/15

   Estrategia. Apoyo de PP a gana perA-o serA! en lo polAtico, de
   colaboraciA^3n tA(c)cnica y en el Congreso. LAder de PerA-o Posible dijo
   que inclusiA^3n de miembros de su partido en el gabinete Humala se
   definirA! cuando el presidente electo retorne de EEUU.

   Bajando la tensiA^3n que se generA^3 en dAas recientes por declaraciones
   singulares de uno y otro, el esperado encuentro entre Ollanta Humala y
   Alejandro Toledo se produjo por fin anoche.

   ParecAa que la cita iba a quedar postergada a la vuelta de Humala de EEUU,
   teniendo en cuenta que el presidente electo  habAa indicado que la
   reuniA^3n no estaba en su agenda, pero finalmente decidieron encontrarse
   antes del viaje.

   Toledo Manrique fue el primero en  llegar al local del PNUD en Magdalena
   (centro de operaciones del electo mandatario), minutos despuA(c)s hizo lo
   propio Humala. Pero tras la reuniA^3n, que se prolongA^3 por mA!s de una
   hora, solo declarA^3 el lAder de PerA-o Posible (PP).

   Aunque se excusA^3 de revelar detalles de la conversaciA^3n, Toledo dijo
   que la eventual inclusiA^3n de miembros de su partido en el gabinete
   Humala se analizarA! cuando el presidente electo retorne de su viaje a los
   Estados Unidos.

   Luego reiterA^3 que el presidente electo tiene la libertad para definir su
   gabinete, y que no habAa que presionarlo para tomar ninguna decisiA^3n en
   ese sentido.

   a**(Humala) es un hombre que tiene la idea clara sobre los grados de
   libertad que tiene un presidente electo para decidir su gobierno y
   gabinetea**, subrayA^3 Toledo.

   Apoyo en tres niveles

   El ex jefe del Estado, quien calificA^3 de productiva y amigable la cita,
   destacA^3 que con el prA^3ximo gobernante coinciden en el objetivo de
   mantener el crecimiento econA^3mico con inclusiA^3n social y una mejor
   redistribuciA^3n en los sectores mA!s desfavorecidos.

   Por ello, explicA^3 que el apoyo de PP al nuevo gobierno se da en tres
   niveles. a**Un nivel de apoyo polAtico porque  nos hemos comprometido. Un
   nivel (de apoyo) posible de algunos miembros de PerA-o Posible o
   independientes, y el tercero es un apoyo en el Congresoa**, precisA^3.

   En esa lAnea, fuentes confiables de este diario revelaron que ambos
   lAderes polAticos concordaron en la idea de sumar tA(c)cnicos
   independientes, con solvencia moral, al primer gabinete de Humala.

   a**AdemA!s de miembros de ambos partidos, se convocarAa a independientes
   honestos para el Consejo de Ministrosa**, indicaron.
   Las fuentes dijeron ademA!s que el lAder de PP explicA^3 a Humala su
   experiencia de los primeros meses en el gobierno, poniendo A(c)nfasis en
   los retos que asumirA!, asA como tambiA(c)n los errores que podrAa cometer
   por desconocimiento.

   Por la gobernabilidad

   a**El mensaje que quedA^3 claro durante la reuniA^3n es que ambos estA!n
   juntos por la gobernabilidad del paAsa**, se revelA^3.
   En ese sentido, PerA-o Posible comprometiA^3 su apoyo en el sostenimiento
   del nuevo gobierno, a fin de enfrentar los ataques que apunten a debilitar
   y desestabilizar al  nuevo gobierno.

   a**Este apoyo es vital para que Ollanta pueda cumplir con su objetivo de
   lograr la inclusiA^3n social con crecimiento econA^3micoa**, explicaron
   nuestros informantes.

   En la cita, Humala y Toledo acordaron tambiA(c)n establecer una lAnea
   directa para ver los cuadros que PP puede aportar.
   SoltA^3 datos en Facebook

   MA!s tarde, el ex presidente Toledo comentA^3 la cita con  Humala en  su
   cuenta de Facebook.

   a**El encuentro fue como lo esperaba: cordial, sincero, directo.
   Coincidimos en el objetivo de continuar con el crecimiento econA^3mico con
   inclusiA^3n social. Le deseo A(c)xito al presidente Humala en su viaje a
   EEUU. A su retorno seguiremos conversandoa**, dijo.

   Humala viaja a Estados Unidos

   El presidente electo viaja hoy a Washington (Estados Unidos), donde tiene
   previsto reunirse el miA(c)rcoles con el secretario general de la
   OrganizaciA^3n de Estados Americanos (OEA), JosA(c) Miguel Insulza. Humala
   realiza esta gira tras haber visitado con anterioridad siete paAses de
   AmA(c)rica Latina.

   En la Casa Blanca, Humala se reunirA! con funcionarios del Departamento de
   Estado, entre ellos con la secretaria de Estado, Hillary Clinton.

   La embajadora de EEUU en PerA-o, Rose M. Likins, aclarA^3 que no estA! en
   agenda que el presidente de dicho paAs, Barack Obama, reciba al presidente
   electo peruano. AdemA!s, Likins indicA^3 que Humala se reunirA! con el
   asesor de Seguridad Nacional de EEUU Tom Donilon.

   Toledo ratifies support for Humala

   Strategy. Support PP Peru will win in the political, technical
   collaboration and in Congress. Possible leader of Peru said that inclusion
   of members of his party in the cabinet Humala will be defined when the
   elected president of the U.S. returns.

   Lowering the tension generated by statements in recent days and a unique
   one, the expected meeting between Ollanta Humala and Alejandro Toledo took
   place last night.

   It seemed that the event was going to be delayed to around U.S. Humala,
   given that President-elect indicated that the meeting was not on his
   agenda, but finally decided to meet before the trip.

   Toledo Manrique was the first to the local UNDP Magdalena (headquarters of
   the elected president), followed suit minutes after Humala. But after the
   meeting, which lasted more than an hour, only declared the leader of Peru
   Posible (PP).

   Although he declined to reveal details of the conversation, Toledo said
   the eventual inclusion of members of his party in the cabinet will be
   considered when Humala elected president returns from his trip to the
   United States.

   Then he reiterated that the elected president has the freedom to define
   his Cabinet, and had not pressed for any decision in this regard.

   "(Humala) is a man who has a clear idea of a**a**the degrees of freedom
   that has an elected president to decide their government and cabinet,"
   said Toledo.

   Support on three levels

   The former head of state, who called the meeting productive and friendly,
   said that the next president agree on the objective of sustaining economic
   growth with social inclusion and a better distribution in the most
   disadvantaged.

   Therefore, explained that the PP support the new government at three
   levels. "A level of political support because we are committed. A level
   (support) as possible members of Peru Posible or independent, and the
   third is support in Congress, "he said.

   Along these lines, trusted sources of this newspaper revealed that both
   political leaders agreed on the idea of a**a**adding independent experts,
   with good character, the first cabinet of Humala.

   "In addition to members of both parties are honest independent convene to
   the Council of Ministers," they said.
   The sources also said that the PP leader Humala told her early experience
   in government, emphasizing the challenges that will take, as well as
   errors that could make out of ignorance.

   On governance

   "The message was clear during the meeting is that both are together for
   the governance of the country," he said.
   In this sense, Peru Posible pledged his support in sustaining the new
   government to deal with attacks aimed at weakening and destabilizing the
   new government.

   "This support is vital for Ollanta to fulfill its goal of social inclusion
   with economic growth," explained our informants.

   At the meeting, Humala and Toledo also agreed to establish a hotline to
   see the pictures that PP can provide.
   Data released on Facebook

   Later, former President Toledo said the meeting with Humala in your
   Facebook account.

   "The meeting went as expected: warm, honest, direct. We agree on the goal
   of continuing economic growth with social inclusion. I wish you success
   Humala president on his trip to America. In return we will continue
   talking, "he said.

   Humala travels to the U.S.

   President-elect today travels to Washington (USA), where he is scheduled
   to meet Wednesday with Secretary General of the Organization of American
   States (OAS) Jose Miguel Insulza. Humala done this tour having previously
   visited seven countries in Latin America.

   At the White House, Humala will meet with State Department officials,
   including the Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

   The U.S. ambassador to Peru, Rose M. Likins, clarified that agenda is the
   president of this country, Barack Obama, get elected president of Peru. In
   addition, Likins said Humala will meet with National Security Adviser Tom
   Donilon U.S..
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 16:02:08</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-13 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/85390_-latam-pup-brief-110705-am-.html</permalink>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>85929</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - TURKEY - Gulen operations and nuclear power plant
</title>
    <description>   PUBLICATION: background/analysis
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Columnist for Hurriyet/former Gulenist
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY:  B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2 
   SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:  analysts
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
   . 
   Discussed a lot of different things with this source and will be following
   up with him next week. He's agreed to give me the whole rundown on Gulen
   and how things work internally for my report (very excited). This is a guy
   who essentially fled the Gulen after being heavily involed in the
   movement. He's happy for his freedom now, but has tons of insight on how
   things work internally. Naturally that makes him very paranoid. One of the
   more interesting things that we talked about is the Islamist infiltration
   of the military. This is something that you hear a lot about, and the
   military folks always seem to exaggerate it. But apparently, the Gulenists
   have made some serious inroads into the TSK.
   The whole thing works as a massive covert operation. This has been
   happening since the late 80s and early 1990s. Essentially, the Gulen
   organizers will instruct certain members on exactly how to live their
   lives and raise their children so that they are not overtly religious. By
   the time the kids are grown to go to college, you would think they're any
   Joe Schmoe. But, they actually have what you consider a case officer
   within the Gulen who they report to. The young Gulenist will be typically
   highly educated and qualified to go to what is the Harvard of Turkey. But,
   the movement will have him go to the military academy instead. The
   military academies dont really have the brightest folks and so are eager
   to attract these bright minds. Eventually the 'covert' Gulenist will rise
   in ranks and then the movement is able to rely on them to promote their
   agenda. By now, the Gulenists have an entire generation within the
   military ranks. Hard to place a percentage on it, but it's significant.
   This goes beyond the police and intelligence.
   The Gulenists drive the whole Ergenekon affair. We've talked about the
   symbiotic relationship b/w AKP and Gulen (remember, the Islamist faction
   in Turkey is not monolithic at all). THere have been many times when
   Erdogan has wanted to back down but the Gulenists have become a lot more
   influential and push him in certain cases, like we saw with this most
   recent accusation against those soldiers allegedly planning an
   assassination against an AKP official. The impression in TUrkey is that
   Basburg has no balls. He described how in a recent press conference how he
   was struggling to even keep the audience's attention. 
   The Gulenist/AKP movement is extremely strong globally, but particularly
   in DC. New think tanks are popping up all the time. SETA is one of them,
   where two of Erdogan's top advisors come from. 
   Source did a lot of work on Turkey's nuclear power project before. He was
   told by an official when these negotiations started around 2007 that AKP
   wasn't serious about it. The terms of the deal were really screwed up,
   very unfair to any investor so nobody really wanted to bid, and AKP was
   fine with that. The whole point was to associate Turkey with nuclear power
   -- a status symbol, so they could should we could have if we want it, but
   we're not in a rush (sounds like the same policy on the IMF loan). Only
   the Russians bid on it, and the deal fell through last summer. Now, after
   Erdogan met with Putin, they're dealing on it again, but as far as he can
   tell, nobody is putting up the money for it yet. This is something we're
   still looking into
   He echoed many of the things I've heard about the AKP media crackdown.
   He's seen a lot of it first-hand, being in the journalism world. Agrees
   that Ciner is becoming another Celuk under AKP (i know only a couple ppl
   will understand what that means, we'll explain later)
   Something I'll be looking into after talking to George is understanding
   well how the banks are run politically in Turkey. AKP is moving very
   aggressively, but it still doesn't have control over the financial system.
   that still lies in the nationalists' hands. more on that later
</description>
    <date>2010-02-03 02:25:11</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-14 17:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/85929_insight-turkey-gulen-operations-and-nuclear-power-plant-.html</permalink>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>86545</id>
    <title>S3* - INDIA/CT - Dozens dead in India train-bus collision
</title>
    <description>   Dozens dead in India train-bus collision
   07 Jul 2011 05:32
   http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia/2011/07/20117745623725921.html

   More than 30 people have been killed and dozens more injured after a train
   rammed into a bus in northern India.

   The accident took place in the Kanshiram Nagar district of the Uttar
   Pradesh state on Thursday, as about 80 bus passengers were heading home
   from a wedding party, a local administrator said.

   "The bus was stranded here due to some technical problem, suddenly a train
   came," Saurabh Srivastava, the local police superintendent, said.

   "The bus was carrying many passengers and until now, we have found 20 to
   25 bodies and searching for other 25 bodies. We are still taking away
   bodies from here."

   The Press Trust of India news agency, quoting unnamed railway sources,
   said 33 people had been killed and 17 injured, while the UNI news agency
   quoted a local magistrate as saying 31 bodies had been recovered and
   almost 40 wounded.

   The bus had stopped at a railroad crossing after its axle broke and was
   hit by the train, an official said.

   The train dragged the mangled bus more than 500 metres before coming to a
   halt, he said. No passengers on the train were hurt.

   The NDTV network broadcast footage from the scene, about 170km southeast
   of New Delhi, showing debris strewn across the tracks and police officers
   carrying bodies covered with sheets on stretchers.

   Train accidents are common in India, where the world's largest railroad
   network carries more than 14 million passengers each day, but this is the
   most deadly accident in 2011.

   The railways is the country's largest employer with 1.4 million people on
   its payroll. Most accidents are blamed on poor maintenance and human
   error.
</description>
    <date>2011-07-07 16:37:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-17 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/86545_s3-india-ct-dozens-dead-in-india-train-bus-collision-.html</permalink>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>86916</id>
    <title>Re: Argentina and Falklands
</title>
    <description>   Thanks, Allison. Can you try to verify whether this has congressional
   backing and see how shipping traffic actually passes through this are?
   Does the falkland dispute actually resonate among the populace?
   Sent from my iPhone
   On Feb 17, 2010, at 12:01 PM, Allison Fedirka
   &lt;allison.fedirka@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

     My take on the issue is along the lines of what you are thinking - a
     distraction from internal issues.  Throughout the year you will hear the
     Argentine government talk up the Falklands - to them the issue never was
     resolved in 82.  You'll hear it come in to the news at the beginning of
     April (dia de las Malvinas) and whenever there is a big official visit
     between the UK/Argie.  For example when CK went to the UK for the g20
     she vowed to bring it up.  I also have to say that it is still a bit of
     a sore spot for Argentines.... many of them still believe that the
     islands should rightfully be theirs (as they appear in all national maps
     along with Antarctica). 

     Right now there's all sorts of slander going around in the press with
     scandals everywhere - the Kirchners making money illegally, the
     Kirchners buying millions of dollars, the govt's use of DNU, govt trying
     to bypass the Congress and use the reserves to pay part of the debt
     anyways, electricity supply/flooding problems in the North, meat/food
     prices and general inflation, farmer and export taxes or aid, people
     wanting more money for social plans or better distribution of social
     plans.  These are the things in the headlines every day or every other
     day.

     It is interesting that they made the rule about requiring permits to go
     there.  If the govt issues permits, there's no telling when they will
     get issued.  Also, it's a decree which means it was CK's decision and
     she doesn't necessarily have Congress's backing.  The opposition is
     trying to revisit the issue of Presidential decrees and this is one of
     many that fall in to that category.  I'm not sure how much that affects
     the Brits - if they frequently use Argentine ports or pass through
     Argentine waters.... and if they do, how easily it can be avoided (say
     with a shift to Montevideo port or just going around Arg waters).

       Hey Allison,
       Can you please explain to me what is driving Argentina to escalate the
       Falklands dispute right now?  is this just to distract from internal
       issues, something more?

              Argentina escalates row with Britain over Falklands

       &lt;mime-attachment.png&gt;
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       &lt;mime-attachment.jpg&gt;AFP a** File photo of tourists walking in
       Stanley, Falkland Islands. Argentina escalated a row with Britain
       over a*|
         * &lt;mime-attachment.jpg&gt;Play VideoEnergy &amp; Oil Video:Jim LaCamp Talks
           Oil Prices &amp; Job Market CBS 11 Dallas
         * &lt;mime-attachment.jpg&gt;Play VideoEnergy &amp; Oil Video:Gas Explosion
           Damages House In West Denver CBS4 Denver
         * &lt;mime-attachment.jpg&gt;Play VideoEnergy &amp; Oil Video:AP Top
           Stories AP
       by Oscar Laski a** Tue Feb 16, 11:06 pm ET
       BUENOS AIRES (AFP) a** Argentina escalated a row with Britain overoil
       drilling in the Falklands by ordering all ships heading to the
       disputed islands through its waters to seek permission from Buenos
       Aires first.
       Argentine President Cristina Kirchner signed the decree, ratcheting up
       tensions between Argentina and Britain over Las Malvinas, the Spanish
       name for the islands they warred over in 1982 at the cost of almost
       1,000 lives.
       "All ships that wish to move between ports in continental Argentina
       and ports in the Malvinas islands, or that wish to cross
       Argentineterritorial waters as they head to the islands" require prior
       permission, it said.
       Kirchner's chief of staff Anibal Fernandez left no doubt the move was
       intended to clamp down on shipping that might be helping Britain as it
       launches operations to explore the region's oil and mineral reserves.
       The decree seeks to achieve "not only a defense of Argentine
       sovereignty but also of all the resources" in the area, Fernandez
       explained, adding that a high-level permanent committee would be set
       up to monitor the shipping.
       Anger in Argentina over the Falklands, which has bubbled below the
       surface for much of the last three decades, has threatened to boil
       over in recent months as Britain prepares to launch drilling
       operations.
       Argentina has lodged a protest with London about drilling in the
       seabed around the windswept islands, which contains up to 60 billion
       barrels of oil, according to geological studies quoted in the British
       media.
       A tug boat hauling a British exploration rig will arrive any day to
       start oil prospecting and the issue already came to a head earlier
       this month when Buenos Aires blocked a shipment of pipes it said was
       bound for the Falklands.
       Argentine authorities boarded the foreign flagged "Thor Leader" in the
       southern port of Campana after learning it was about to take on a
       cargo of pipes used in the oil industry and apparently destined for
       the Falklands.
       Buenos Aires is furious that London continues to skirt UN resolutions
       calling on both governments to renew a dialogue on the sovereignty of
       the Falklands.
       "We wish to reaffirm the obligation to resolve the differences between
       Britain and us in the framework of international law and United
       Nations resolutions," Kirchner said on Tuesday.
       Britain in January rejected Argentina's latest claim to the islands,
       which it has held and occupied since 1833.
       The Foreign Office in London sought to play down Argentina's latest
       move in the row by issuing a bland statement, pointing out the obvious
       about the legal position.
       "Regulations governing Argentine territorial waters are a matter for
       the Argentine authorities. This does not affect Falkland
       Islands territorial waters which are controlled by the island
       authorities," a statement said.
       It said Argentina and Britain were "important partners" and pledged to
       "cooperate" on issues in the South Atlantic, where the Falklands are
       located.
       Buenos Aires has urged a solution along the lines of what Britain
       agreed for the Chinese territory of Hong Kong.
       Britain and Argentina's rival claims of ownership over the Falklands
       exploded into war in 1982 after Argentine military rulers seized the
       islands, only to be defeated and expelled by a British naval force.
       The conflict lasted 74 days and cost the lives of 649 Argentine
       soldiers and 255 from Britain.
</description>
    <date>2010-02-17 18:20:11</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 22:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/86916_re-argentina-and-falklands-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>allison.fedirka@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>87759</id>
    <title>Re: Sadr statement
</title>
    <description>   Sadrite MPs and certainly other MPs from the Sunnis and Shia parties, Badr
   Org who have 19 MPs, I believe.  

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Yerevan Saeed" &lt;yerevan.saeed@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, July 11, 2011 5:32:19 PM
   Subject: Re: Sadr statement

   true,  but PM is in charge when the post is vacant.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, July 11, 2011 5:30:42 PM
   Subject: Re: Sadr statement

   but a defense minister hasn't been appointed yet, right?  could this be a
   bilateral agreement with the PM?  who are they going to avoid the
   parliament vote?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Yerevan Saeed" &lt;yerevan.saeed@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, July 11, 2011 9:29:06 AM
   Subject: Re: Sadr statement

   I am in the processing of getting some insight about the whole pic.   I
   believe we will seen extension of the US troops in Iraq, but a limited
   number though.  
   The deal could be between Iraqi defense minister and the Pentagon and such
   deals dont require to go through parliament voting.   

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Michael Wilson" &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, July 11, 2011 5:19:59 PM
   Subject: Re: Sadr statement

   In April (below) he  threatened to re-activate Mahdi army so this (not
   reactivating Mahdi army, just keeping PDB) would be new. I also pasted the
   article that spoke about splits and low morale in Mahdi army below
   (thought it had been Yerevan isight but was an article)

     Iraqi cleric issues new warning against U.S. troops
   Sat Apr 9, 2011 -
   http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/09/us-iraq-protests-idUSTRE73816Z20110409

   BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq's fiery anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr will
   "escalate military resistance" and unleash his Mehdi Army militia if U.S.
   troops fail to leave Iraq, the cleric was quoted as saying on Saturday.

   On the 8th anniversary of the day U.S. forces toppled Saddam Hussein's
   statue in Baghdad, spokesman Salah al-Ubaidi read a speech from the
   influential Shi'ite cleric to tens of thousands of followers.

   Some carried signs reading "Occupiers Out" and "No to America." Others
   burned U.S., Israeli and British flags.

   "We say to the Black House (White House), 'we are all time bombs and the
   detonators are at the hands of Moqtada al-Sadr.' American troops must
   definitely leave our lands," senior Sadr aide Hazem al-Araji told the Sadr
   followers.

   To a wildly cheering crowd in Baghdad's Mustansiriya Square, Ubaidi,
   reading Sadr's speech, said an extension of the U.S. "occupation" would
   have two consequences.

   "First, the escalation of military resistance work and the withdrawal of
   the order freezing the Mehdi Army, in a new statement issued later.
   Second, escalation of peaceful and public resistance through sit-ins and
   protests, to say that the people want the exit of the occupation," he
   said.

   Sadr is currently in Iran, a source close to the cleric said.

   The warning came after U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, on a visit to
   Iraq, pressed the Iraqi government for a decision on whether it wanted
   U.S. troops to extend their stay to help fend off a still-lethal
   insurgency.

   MEHDI ARMY

   Some 47,000 remaining forces are scheduled to leave by year's end under a
   security agreement between the two countries.

   Sadr's Mehdi Army militia fought U.S. troops during the height of Iraq's
   sectarian bloodshed in 2006-07, when tens of thousands of Iraqis were
   killed. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki sent government troops to crush the
   militia in 2008.

   U.S. officials and Sunni Arab leaders accused the Mehdi Army of being
   behind many of the sectarian killings in Iraq after the 2003 U.S. invasion
   that deposed Sunni dictator Saddam Hussein.

   Sadr disavowed violence against fellow Iraqis and in 2008 ordered his
   militia to become a humanitarian group. The black-clad fighters have
   maintained a relatively low profile since but U.S. officials still regard
   them with suspicion.

   Sadr's political movement won strong support in elections last year and
   overcame animosity toward Maliki to join his coalition government, formed
   in December after nine months of tense negotiations between Shi'ite, Sunni
   and Kurdish factions.

   Sadr, who fled Iraq in 2006 or 2007 after an arrest warrant was issued for
   him, has lived and studied in neighboring Iran in recent years. He
   returned in early January but did not stay long before heading back to
   Iran.

   Iraq's Mehdi Army faces splits, wary of return to war
   http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/16/us-iraq-security-mehdi-idUSTRE75F4C220110616?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=worldNews&amp;utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FworldNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+International%29
   Thu Jun 16, 2011 10:44am EDT
   (Reuters) - Iraq's anti-U.S. cleric Moqtada al-Sadr is reviving fears of
   sectarian violence with a warning he will unleash his Shi'ite Mehdi Army
   militia again if U.S. forces stay in the country beyond a year-end
   deadline.

   But for Mehdi Army veterans like Ahmed, who once battled U.S. troops on
   Baghdad's streets, the fighting days are over as Sadr's militia enters
   mainstream politics, struggles with splinter groups, and ex-combatants
   resist a return to war.

   "All I need to do is stay away from any trouble for another three years,"
   said Ahmed, who wants to put his guerrilla days behind him to focus on
   college exams and becoming a lawyer. He asked that his surname not be used
   because of his militant past.

   At the height of Iraq's 2006-2007 sectarian slaughter, the Mehdi Army was
   seen by Washington as one of the biggest threats to Iraqi security with
   its young fighters toting rocket launchers and battling U.S. and Iraqi
   troops in the streets.

   Sadr disarmed his militia after Shi'ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's
   troops -- backed by American forces -- defeated them in Baghdad and
   southern cities in 2008. His movement has since become a potent force in
   mainstream politics.

   Sadr's anti-U.S. rhetoric still inspires followers, and U.S. and Iraqi
   security officials say Mehdi Army splinter groups still pose a security
   risk, emerging in the form of Shi'ite militia that Washington says are
   backed by Iran.

   But former fighters and security officials say many Mehdi Army veterans
   have too much to lose to pick up the gun again.

   VIOLENCE EBBED

   Iraq's violence has ebbed eight years after the U.S.-led invasion to oust
   Saddam Hussein, but Sunni insurgents and Shi'ite militias still carry out
   daily attacks.

   The United States still has 47,000 troops in Iraq, but their mandate
   expires at the end of this year and Iraq's leaders are debating the
   divisive question of whether to ask some to stay.

   Sadr threatened in April to revive his Mehdi Army if the U.S. troops do
   not all leave Iraq by December 31. He has since brought thousands of
   Shi'ite supporters onto the streets of Baghdad in a show of strength.

   Once a rabble-rousing militant agitator, Sadr is now a powerful member of
   Maliki's cross-sectarian coalition. His group controls 39 seats in the
   325-member parliament, an important bloc in a body divided among Sunni,
   Shi'ite and Kurdish groups.

   The scion of a family of revered Shi'ite clerics, he has taken on a more
   statesman-like approach even if he has not toned down his anti-U.S.
   rhetoric. Last year he acted as the kingmaker whose support allowed Maliki
   to form a fragile, cross-sectarian coalition government.

   That mainstream political clout and the benefits his supporters enjoy mean
   many Mehdi Army veterans may be much less keen to return to arms if Sadr
   makes that call, Mehdi leaders and Iraqi security officials say.

   "Despite his huge number of supporters, if Moqtada decided to fight now,
   only a few would fight," said Abu Sadiq, a senior Mehdi Army leader in
   Sadr City, the vast, poor Shi'ite district of east Baghdad named for
   Moqtada's slain cleric father.

   "The only ones who will fight are those who have not become contractors,
   or parliament members or gained salaries, cars, homes or government
   posts," he said.

   SADRIST SPLINTERS

   U.S. military commanders and Sunni Arab leaders blamed the Shi'ite Mehdi
   Army for much of the bloodshed when thousands of Iraqis were killed during
   sectarian slaughter in 2006-2007.

   Sadr's threats have fueled Sunni Arab worries of a return to religious
   violence.

   U.S. and Iraqi officials say a small Mehdi Army faction, the Promised Day
   Brigade, is still behind attacks on U.S. forces even after Sadr stood down
   the majority of his fighters.

   "He admitted to attacking us and continuing these attacks, and the
   Promised Day Brigade, that is a Sadrist organization and reports to him,
   have been making attack claims all along," said U.S. Army Major Gen.
   Jeffrey Buchanan, a military spokesman.

   Sadr spent much of the most violent period in Iran. His return to Iraq
   this year may have been prompted in part by a need to clean house as
   rivals within the Sadrist movement were challenging his authority.

   Such splits undermine the prospect of a Mehdi Army revival, former
   fighters say.

   "The danger that Moqtada faces is from his leaders who are competing with
   each other for posts, wealth and positions," Abu Moqtada, a former Mehdi
   fighter, said.

   The biggest splinter group, Asaib al-Haq, is already challenging Sadr,
   eroding his militia from within by infiltrating the top echelons of his
   organization, Sadrist sources say.

   Asaib, or the Leagues of Righteousness, is headed by Qais al-Khazili, who
   was a former Sadr spokesman before he broke away. Asaib has its own
   television station and websites, and Washington says it is funded by Iran.

   "We have some leaders inside Sadr's offices and among Mehdi Army troops
   who follow Sadr publicly but they receive orders from Asaib," said one
   Sadrist lawmaker who declined to be named because of the sensitivity of
   the issue.

   One senior Iraqi security official, who declined to be named, said Asaib
   had attracted some skilled Mehdi Army fighters but others were less
   committed.

   "They are not as strong as before, we know most of them are not willing to
   fight," he said.

   But Sadr can still inspire loyal and unquestioning support from young,
   impoverished men within Sadr City, where some believe he is a holy Imam or
   saint.

   "For me, Moqtada is a saint," said Mehdi fighter, Abu Karar. "I am ready
   to die for him."

   On 7/11/11 9:07 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

     i was searching our website before repping this and found out that Sadr
     did this before in 2007. so, it seems like a tactical move. 
     but this doesn't disprove reva's thoughts.

                   Iraq: Al-Sadr Freezes Mehdi Army Activity

     August 29, 2007 | 1402 GMT

     PRINTPRINT Text Resize: 

     [IMG][IMG][IMG]ShareThis

     Radical Iraqi Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr on Aug. 29 ordered his Mehdi
     Army to suspend its activities for six months. Sheikh Hazem al-Araji
     said on Iraqi state television that the purpose of the move is to
     a**rehabilitatea** the organization. Another official from the
     al-Sadrite bloc, Ahmed al-Shaibani, said the suspension means the
     militia will not launch attacks against U.S. and coalition forces.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Michael Wilson" &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;, "Analyst List"
     &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Monday, July 11, 2011 4:56:27 PM
     Subject: Re: Sadr statement

     But note he did say they Promised Day Brigade would keep fighting. In
     fact I think he has said this similar line before, where Promisde dAy
     brigade would stay activiated but Mahdi army would not.

     Remember Yerevan's insight about Sadrites not wanting to be a part of it
     anymore...part of me wonders if he can still activate that many people
     (without a major problem happening first to incite them)

     On 7/11/11 8:53 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

       Sadr's statement on how he will not reactivate the Mahdi militia, said
       during Panetta's visit to Iraq, could be Iran's way of trying to
       reopen a dialogue with the US. Would make sense if they are making
       some progress with the Saudis. Let's keep an eye out for any signs. am
       digging into this

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com


     --
     --
     Emre Dogru
     STRATFOR  
     Cell: +90.532.465.7514
     Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
     emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com


   --
   Yerevan Saeed
   STRATFOR
   Phone: 009647701574587
   IRAQ

   --
   Yerevan Saeed
   STRATFOR
   Phone: 009647701574587
   IRAQ

   --
   Yerevan Saeed
   STRATFOR
   Phone: 009647701574587
   IRAQ
</description>
    <date>2011-07-11 16:38:04</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-05 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/87759_re-sadr-statement-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>yerevan.saeed@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>87799</id>
    <title>[MESA] India - Train Derailments?
</title>
    <description>   This might be a good trigger for reassessing Indian militancy -- would be
   especially interesting to see who did this one since it's much larger than
   we've seen recently.  No one has claimed responsibility yet and several
   groups have condemned the blasts.  Any other thoughts we have on who did
   it would be much appreciated.

   -------- Original Message --------

    Subject: S3 - INDIA/CT/GV- Death toll from derailed train in India now at 
             60                                                               
       Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2011 23:52:43 -0500 (CDT)                            
       From: Chris Farnham &lt;chris.farnham@stratfor.com&gt;                       
   Reply-To: analysts@stratfor.com                                            
         To: alerts@stratfor.com                                              

   The red please [chris]

   [this news also has the Assam blast story that caused train derailment the
   end. Bad sunday for Indian railways AR)

   Death toll from derailed train in India now at 60
   AP
   http://news.yahoo.com/death-toll-derailed-train-india-now-60-034936343.html

   LUCKNOW, India (AP) - Officials say the death toll from a train derailment
   in northern India has risen to 60 as more bodies are being pulled out of
   the mangled coaches.

   The senior army official in charge of rescue operations at the accident
   site says volunteers and soldiers have pulled out 60 bodies from 12
   coaches of the Kalka Mail, which went off the tracks Sunday afternoon.

   Col. Amarjit Dhillon told the Associated Press on Monday that many more
   bodies were trapped under the twisted coaches and soldiers were using gas
   cutters to slice through the metal.

   Rescue workers working through the night rescued many of the more than 100
   injured in the accident near the town of Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh state.

   THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information.
   AP's earlier story is below.

   FATEHPUR, India (AP) - Rescuers searched for survivors in the wreckage of
   a packed express train that derailed in northern India on Sunday
   afternoon, killing at least 31 people, while officials said a second train
   derailment hundreds of miles (kilometers) to the northeast appeared to
   have been caused by a remote-controlled bomb.

   Rescuers were working to reach the second derailment, which occurred late
   Sunday night in a rural area of Assam state, injuring at least 100. The
   two railway incidents did not appear to be related.

   In the first crash, the Kalka Mail train was on its way to Kalka, in the
   foothills of the Himalayas, from Howrah, a station near Kolkata in eastern
   India, when 12 coaches and the engine jumped the tracks at Malwan station,
   near the town of Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh state, senior railway official
   A.K. Jain said.

   The cause of the derailment was not immediately clear but it appeared that
   the driver applied the emergency brakes, Jain said.

   At least 31 people were killed and rescue workers pulled at least 100
   injured passengers out of the wreckage, said Brij Lal, a state police
   official.

   Hours later, the second train derailed in the northeastern state of Assam,
   injuring at least 100 people, said S.K. Roy, a local magistrate.

   Local police suspect that a remote control-triggered bomb caused four
   coaches of the Gauhati-Puri Express to be thrown off the tracks in the
   town of Rangiya, about 30 miles (50 kilometers) west of the state's
   capital, Gauhati, Roy said.

   S. Hajong, a local railways spokesman, said two of the four coaches
   plunged into a pond and casualties are feared.

   Roy did not blame any rebel group and no one has taken responsibility for
   the attack so far. More than 30 groups in northeastern India have been
   fighting for decades for independence or wide autonomy in the region,
   about 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) east of New Delhi.

   It was the third train accident in India in the last four days. A train
   hit a bus at an unmanned railway crossing last Thursday, killing 35
   people.

   In Fatehpur, the accident site was a pile of twisted metal. At least one
   coach flew above the roof of another ahead of it and was dangling
   precariously, television footage showed. Another coach was thrown away
   from the rest of the train.

   The toll was likely to rise as rescuers made their way through the coaches
   and used gas cutters to cut through the mangled metal, Lal said. Rescue
   efforts continued late into the night.

   "We're trying to cut into the coaches and rescue those still trapped
   inside," Lal said.

   A senior railway official, H.C. Joshi, told CNN-IBN news channel that
   rescuers were struggling to free at least five people pinned under the
   wreckage of one of the worst-damaged coaches.

   Medical personnel rushed to the area, about 75 miles (120 kilometers)
   southeast of Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh state.

   Army helicopters were ferrying the most seriously injured victims to
   hospitals and 30 army engineers had joined the rescue efforts, Lal said.

   TV stations showed local residents helping injured passengers away from
   the train, several in makeshift stretchers, and breaking the windows of
   coaches to help those trapped inside.

   Prime Minister Manmohan Singh expressed "deep sorrow and shock" at the
   loss of lives. The Railways Ministry announced compensation of 500,000
   rupees ($11,000) for the families of those killed in the accident.

   The number of passengers on board the Kalka Mail - named for its past use
   in the postal service - was not known. Express trains normally carry about
   1,000 people and travel at speeds of 60-80 miles (100-130 kilometers) per
   hour.

   India's railroad network is one of the largest in the world and carries
   about 14 million passengers a day. Accidents are common, with most blamed
   on poor maintenance and human error.

   --
   Animesh

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   Australia Mobile: 0423372241
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-11 14:29:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-17 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/87799_-mesa-india-train-derailments-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mesa@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:mesa@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>88311</id>
    <title>S3 - INDIA/CT/GV- Death toll from derailed train in India now at 60
</title>
    <description>   The red please [chris]

   [this news also has the Assam blast story that caused train derailment the
   end. Bad sunday for Indian railways AR)

   Death toll from derailed train in India now at 60
   AP
   http://news.yahoo.com/death-toll-derailed-train-india-now-60-034936343.html

   LUCKNOW, India (AP) a** Officials say the death toll from a train
   derailment in northern India has risen to 60 as more bodies are being
   pulled out of the mangled coaches.

   The senior army official in charge of rescue operations at the accident
   site says volunteers and soldiers have pulled out 60 bodies from 12
   coaches of the Kalka Mail, which went off the tracks Sunday afternoon.

   Col. Amarjit Dhillon told the Associated Press on Monday that many more
   bodies were trapped under the twisted coaches and soldiers were using gas
   cutters to slice through the metal.

   Rescue workers working through the night rescued many of the more than 100
   injured in the accident near the town of Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh state.

   THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information.
   AP's earlier story is below.

   FATEHPUR, India (AP) a** Rescuers searched for survivors in the wreckage
   of a packed express train that derailed in northern India on Sunday
   afternoon, killing at least 31 people, while officials said a second train
   derailment hundreds of miles (kilometers) to the northeast appeared to
   have been caused by a remote-controlled bomb.

   Rescuers were working to reach the second derailment, which occurred late
   Sunday night in a rural area of Assam state, injuring at least 100. The
   two railway incidents did not appear to be related.

   In the first crash, the Kalka Mail train was on its way to Kalka, in the
   foothills of the Himalayas, from Howrah, a station near Kolkata in eastern
   India, when 12 coaches and the engine jumped the tracks at Malwan station,
   near the town of Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh state, senior railway official
   A.K. Jain said.

   The cause of the derailment was not immediately clear but it appeared that
   the driver applied the emergency brakes, Jain said.

   At least 31 people were killed and rescue workers pulled at least 100
   injured passengers out of the wreckage, said Brij Lal, a state police
   official.

   Hours later, the second train derailed in the northeastern state of Assam,
   injuring at least 100 people, said S.K. Roy, a local magistrate.

   Local police suspect that a remote control-triggered bomb caused four
   coaches of the Gauhati-Puri Express to be thrown off the tracks in the
   town of Rangiya, about 30 miles (50 kilometers) west of the state's
   capital, Gauhati, Roy said.

   S. Hajong, a local railways spokesman, said two of the four coaches
   plunged into a pond and casualties are feared.

   Roy did not blame any rebel group and no one has taken responsibility for
   the attack so far. More than 30 groups in northeastern India have been
   fighting for decades for independence or wide autonomy in the region,
   about 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) east of New Delhi.

   It was the third train accident in India in the last four days. A train
   hit a bus at an unmanned railway crossing last Thursday, killing 35
   people.

   In Fatehpur, the accident site was a pile of twisted metal. At least one
   coach flew above the roof of another ahead of it and was dangling
   precariously, television footage showed. Another coach was thrown away
   from the rest of the train.

   The toll was likely to rise as rescuers made their way through the coaches
   and used gas cutters to cut through the mangled metal, Lal said. Rescue
   efforts continued late into the night.

   "We're trying to cut into the coaches and rescue those still trapped
   inside," Lal said.

   A senior railway official, H.C. Joshi, told CNN-IBN news channel that
   rescuers were struggling to free at least five people pinned under the
   wreckage of one of the worst-damaged coaches.

   Medical personnel rushed to the area, about 75 miles (120 kilometers)
   southeast of Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh state.

   Army helicopters were ferrying the most seriously injured victims to
   hospitals and 30 army engineers had joined the rescue efforts, Lal said.

   TV stations showed local residents helping injured passengers away from
   the train, several in makeshift stretchers, and breaking the windows of
   coaches to help those trapped inside.

   Prime Minister Manmohan Singh expressed "deep sorrow and shock" at the
   loss of lives. The Railways Ministry announced compensation of 500,000
   rupees ($11,000) for the families of those killed in the accident.

   The number of passengers on board the Kalka Mail a** named for its past
   use in the postal service a** was not known. Express trains normally carry
   about 1,000 people and travel at speeds of 60-80 miles (100-130
   kilometers) per hour.

   India's railroad network is one of the largest in the world and carries
   about 14 million passengers a day. Accidents are common, with most blamed
   on poor maintenance and human error.

   --
   Animesh

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   Australia Mobile: 0423372241
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-11 06:52:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-17 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/88311_s3-india-ct-gv-death-toll-from-derailed-train-in-india-now.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>89233</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT - CHINA/AUS - Farmland &amp; SOEs - CN65
</title>
    <description>   *Questions/responses welcomed.

   SOURCE: CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

   There is an issue flaring up over Chinese SOEs being rural properties in
   Australia.  The issue has principally arisen as a result of some fairly
   outrageous claims by the Greens in Australia.  
   You might not be aware that the Greens have taken the balance of power in
   the Senate here. They are now running around claiming that there is a huge
   takeover of rural land in Australia by foreigners.
   There is now gong to be a Senate Inquiry into foreign investment in
   agriculture.
   Key to this is the fact that Shenhua has spent A$200 million buying 43
   properties over and surrounding its Watermark coal project in the Upper
   Hunter Valley.  The reason for this is that if they buy the properties,
   they don't have to worry about dealing with the landholders over
   environmental issues.  (Landowners in Australia don't own the minerals in
   the ground, whereas in the US they do.  So you can theoretically mine on
   someone else's land, but you have to deal with them in regulated ways in
   regards to environmental impacts.)
   The National Farmers Federation has said today on ABC News Television that
   there is a need to distinguish between foreign ownership of rural
   properties per se, and the mining versus agriculture debate.  The latter,
   he said, was about the long term sustainability of properties.
   The NFF position is that foreign investment has been critical to enabling
   Australia to stay at the head of the world on agricultural productivity.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com


 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19
</description>
    <date>2011-07-13 15:27:26</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/89233_-alpha-insight-china-aus-farmland-and-soes-cn65-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ben.preisler@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>91622</id>
    <title>[alpha] (FBI) True Psychology of the Insider Spy &amp; Comrade J
</title>
    <description>   Feedback from FBI FCI HQS SAIC --

   Totally agree - very interesting.......but, how do we square this profile
   of a life long looser/insider spy with somebody like Comrad J? This guy
   was anything but a loser from early childhood right up until he choked on
   that chicken bone last year.  Every one of the analytical points the
   author makes are exactly the opposit of Comrad J's profile.  Sounds like
   the profile only applies to our insider spies, not the other guys insiders
   who we recruit to spy for us, right?
    
</description>
    <date>2011-07-08 18:16:14</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/91622_-alpha-fbi-true-psychology-of-the-insider-spy-and-comrade-j-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>91754</id>
    <title>[latam] =?utf-8?q?Fwd=3A__=5BOS=5D_PARAGUAY/BRAZIL_-_Coordinadora?=
 =?utf-8?q?_Agr=C3=ADcola_del_Paraguay_sent_folder_to_Brazilian_Senator_as?=
 =?utf-8?q?king_for_body_to_intervene_on_behalf_of_Brasiguayos_in_Brazil?=
</title>
    <description>   hehe they asked the right senator. Alvaro Dias is a "hardliner" when it
   comes to issues with neighboring coutries and also very familiar with the
   subject since he was governor of Parana where many of the first
   Brasiguaios were from when thestarted buying land in Paraguay after the
   construction of Itaipu that displaced many of them on the Brazilian side. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Allison Fedirka" &lt;allison.fedirka@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "LatAm AOR" &lt;latam@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 19, 2011 5:15:53 PM
   Subject: Re: [latam] [OS] PARAGUAY/BRAZIL - Coordinadora AgrAcola del
   Paraguay sent folder to Brazilian Senator asking for body to intervene on
   behalf of Brasiguayos in Brazil

   one interesting side note the the farmers' message to the Brazilian
   Senator was that they were tired of protesting and didn't want quick
   solutions from the Prgyn Govt only to have a new problem arise later.
   The Paraguayan Govt has also come out saying that they don't see the
   Brasiguayo issue as one that will hurt its relationship with Brazil

   Productor afirma que recurrieron al Senado brasileA+-o "cansados de hacer
   tractorazos"
   19 de Julio de 2011 -
   http://www.ultimahora.com/notas/447291-Productor-afirma-que-recurrieron-al-Senado-brasileno-cansados-de-hacer-tractorazos

   Valter Mesch, productor brasiguayo de la zona de Santa Rita, dijo que
   recurrieron al Senado brasileA+-o por el tema de las ocupaciones de tierra
   en Alto ParanA!, "cansados de hacer tractorazos y salir a las calles".

   El productor dijo en contacto con radio Monumental 1080 AM que a travA(c)s
   de la Coordinadora AgrAcola del Paraguay (CAP) enviaron una carpeta al
   senador brasileA+-o, A*lvaro Dias, expresando la inquietud de los colonos
   brasiguayos sobre las ocupaciones de tierras en la zona fronteriza, de las
   que sostiene son constantemente vActimas.

   "Ya estamos cansados de hacer tractorazos, ya no queremos salir a las
   calles, lastimosamente la Justicia paraguaya soluciona el problema, pero
   no pasa mucho tiempo y ya viene otro problema", sostuvo al justificar el
   hecho de haber recurrido a las autoridades brasileA+-as por el conflicto
   de tierras en Alto ParanA!

   ManifestA^3 que aguardarA!n si es que las autoridades de su paAs pueden
   hacer algo por ellos vAa diplomA!tica, indicando que lo que buscan es que
   se dA(c) un corte definitivo al tema de las ocupaciones.

   Ante este pedido al Brasil, el jefe de Gabinete de la Presidencia de la
   RepA-oblica, Miguel LA^3pez Perito, dijo, segA-on informa IP Paraguay, que
   este tema responde a una cuestiA^3n interna, por lo que no se necesita
   abordar en forma bilateral con Brasil la soluciA^3n a la problemA!tica por
   la tenencia de la tierra suscitada entre colonos brasileA+-os y dirigentes
   campesinos en Alto ParanA!.

   "Es un tema de soberanAa", por tanto, la soluciA^3n y las medidas que tome
   el paAs no son "cuestiones bilaterales", respondiA^3 este martes, al ser
   consultado sobre la decisiA^3n del grupo de colonos de solicitar la
   intervenciA^3n del Gobierno brasileA+-o para dar una salida al conflicto
   de la tierra en la zona fronteriza.
</description>
    <date>2011-07-19 22:24:46</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-13 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/91754_-latam-utf-8-q-fwd-3a__-5bos-5d_paraguay-brazil_.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>paulo.gregoire@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>latam@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:latam@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>92057</id>
    <title>Re: Greetings from Washington, DC
</title>
    <description>   Mr. Kenes,
   My schedule changed again, and it looks like I will be available to meet
   you at 3pm today. I will also have my assistant, Emre Dogru, with me.
   Looking forward to meeting you.
   Best,
   Reva

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Mar 7, 2010, at 5:19 PM, BA 1/4lent KeneAA* &lt;b.kenes@todayszaman.com&gt;
   wrote:

     Dear Miss. Bhalla,

      

     I will be at the office at 3 pm on Monday. It will be a great pleasure
     for me to have a cup of coffee with youa*|

      

     If it is suitable for you, please confirm that you will visit our
     officea*|

      

     Best,

     BA 1/4lent KeneAA*              
     Today's Zaman                   
                                     
                                     
     Editor-in-Chief                 
                                     
     Tel     (212)                   
     Faks    (212)                   
     E-posta b.kenes@todayszaman.com 

      

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2010 7:32 PM
     To: BA 1/4lent KeneAA*
     Subject: Greetings from Washington, DC

      

     Dear Mr. Kenes,

      

     I met your colleague, Ali Aslan, last week in DC, where I am based as an
     analyst for STRATFOR. I told him that I'll be in Istanbul this week and
     he strongly recommended that I get in touch with you. If you are
     available some time early in the week (Monday, the 8th, perhaps?) to
     meet, please let me know. I've been working on Turkey issues for a while
     and your publication does very important work. It would be great to sit
     down and chat with you if you have some time.

      

     All the best,

      

     Reva Bhalla

     Director of Analysis

     STRATFOR

     www.stratfor.com

     Director of Analysis

     Senior Analyst for Middle East, South Asia and Latin America

     +1 (512) 699-8385

      
</description>
    <date>2010-03-08 09:50:51</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-03 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/92057_re-greetings-from-washington-dc-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>b.kenes@todayszaman.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>92375</id>
    <title>Re: e-introduction
</title>
    <description>   Yes. Let's meet in my office at the prime ministry. It's the central
   building of the prime ministry in kizilay and you will enter thr the B
   gate.
   Ibrahim

   Bu e-posta, Turkcell BlackBerry ile go:nderilmistir.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 5 Mar 2010 17:51:18 -0600
   To: Ibrahim Kalin&lt;ibrahimkalin@gmail.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: e-introduction
   Dear Mr. Kalin,
   I wanted to thank you again for making some time for me during my visit to
   Turkey. Are you still available Wed, March 10 at 1600?  If so, I will make
   plans to be in Ankara that afternoon. 
   Looking forward to it,
   Reva
   Reva Bhalla
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Analyst for Middle East, South Asia and Latin America
   STRATFOR
   +1 (512) 699-8385
   On Feb 28, 2010, at 10:52 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     Dear Ibrahim,
     Thank you so much for agreeing to make the time for me. I'm really
     looking forward to familiarizing myself with your country. Nuh and I had
     a very lively exchange last week over coffee and he said you would be
     perfect to talk to. 
     I haven't finalized my plans between Istanbul and Ankara yet, but I can
     plan to be in Ankara Wed, March 10 to meet you.  Please let me know if
     your schedule changes ... I know how busy you must be. Again, thank you
     for making the time.
     Looking forward to meeting you.
     All the best,
     Reva
     Reva Bhalla
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Analyst for Middle East, South Asia and Latin America
     STRATFOR
     +1 (512) 699-8385
     On Feb 27, 2010, at 8:51 AM, Ibrahim Kalin wrote:

       dear nuh;
       thanks for your message and for introducing ms. bhalla. i will be
       happy to meet her in ankara or in istanbul depending my schedule. i
       will have a very hectic schedule on the days she will be in turkey but
       i will try my best to make time for her.
       right now, wednesday afternoon march 10 looks open. we can meet in my
       office in the prime ministry in ankara at 16.00 but let's confirm the
       day and the time next week.
       regards,
       ibrahim

       2010/2/27 Nuh YILMAZ &lt;nuhyilmaz@gmail.com&gt;

         Dear Ibrahim,
         I hope this message finds you well. The reason of my e-mail is to
         introduce Reva Bhalla to you. Ms. Bhalla works for Stratfor as the
         Director of Research and has recently been working  on Turkey and
         the Middle East as part of her responsibilities. Her expertise on
         many areas stretching from energy issues to Afghanistan is
         impressive. She will be in Turkey in between 5-15 March and want to
         see people who work on foreign policy, domestic politics and energy
         isues. I advised her to see you since you focus on all of these
         issues. I know your schedule is extremely tight but it would be
         great if you can find some time to meet her.
         Dear Reva,
         Mr. Kalin is Chief Advisor to PM ErdoA:Yan on Foreign Policy. As he
         was the former Director General of SETA and one of the leading great
         intellectuals of Turkey who has international reputation, he has
         expertise on many issues that we have discussed. I think having a
         meeting with Mr. Kalin would be one of the best things that can
         happen to you in Turkey.
         I let you arrange your meeting (hopefully), and would love to hear
         from you soon,
         best regards,
         Nuh YILMAZ
         Director
          
         SETA Foundation at Washington D.C.
         1025 Connecticut Avenue, N.W., Suite 1106
         Washington, D.C., 20036
         ph: 202-223-9885 ext. 301
         fax: 202-223-6099
         nuhyilmaz@gmail.com
         nyilmaz@setav.org
         www.setav.org
         www.setadc.org
</description>
    <date>2010-03-06 08:39:13</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-09 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/92375_re-e-introduction-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ibrahimkalin@gmail.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>92424</id>
    <title>[latam] PUP Brief 110718
</title>
    <description>   PUP Brief
   110718

   PARAGUAY
     * Jailed EPP chief will present book on book that argues in favor of the
       use of arms to produce radical change in the country
     * Concepcion police studying creation of rapid reaction force to respond
       to EPP attacks, especially against police
     * Brasiguayos organizing meeting in Foz de Iguacu at to ask Brazilian
       Govt to mediate solution to land disputes, should be around end of
       August start of Sept
   URUGUAY
     * Eleuterio Fernandez Huidobro Uruguay's new Defense Min
     * Natl. Colonization Institute wants to take more action, start public
       discussion to avoid foreign control of lands
   PERU
     * Humala's popularity falls to 41% (from 70%) since he took office
     * Toledo to restructure Peru Posible, says its already on the road to
       2016 presidential elections
     * Peru needs to come up with its own development model, not copy others,
       says Humala
     * Stocks Surge as Humala Says Hea**ll Keep Velarde Atop Central Bank
     * Energy Min announced find of gas well in central area of jungle,
       estimates Peru's gas reservese to be good for 40-50 years
     * During Humala's visit, Calderon voices hope that Mex Congress will
       approve FTA with Peru
   PARAGUAY
   Paraguay: jefe guerrillero anuncia presentaciA^3n de libro
   07.18.11 -
   http://www.elnuevoherald.com/2011/07/18/985992/paraguay-jefe-guerrillero-anuncia.html

   ASUNCION -- Alcides Oviedo, jefe encarcelado del grupo guerrillero
   EjA(c)rcito del Pueblo Paraguayo (EPP), presentarA! un libro reivindicando
   el uso de las armas para "producir un cambio radical en el paAs".

   La abogada de Oviedo, Daisy Irala, informA^3 que el lanzamiento de la obra
   serA! el martes en el cuartel policial antimotines en las afueras de
   AsunciA^3n, donde Oviedo cumple una condena de 18 aA+-os por el secuestro
   con fines extorsivos en 2001 de Edith Debernardi, nuera del ex ministro de
   EconomAa Enzo Debernardi. Para su liberaciA^3n fue pagado un rescate de
   dos millones de dA^3lares, segA-on fuentes policiales.

   No obstante, el ministro de Justicia y Trabajo, Humberto Blasco, informA^3
   en conferencia de prensa que "el gobierno no permitirA! que un condenado
   presente un libro en donde haya apologAa del delito. Vamos a leer el libro
   y si constatamos apologAa, no habrA! acto".

   Irala sostuvo que la obra, de contenido izquierdista, "dice que el cambio
   radical se tiene que dar a travA(c)s de las armas porque las clases
   dominantes no querrA!n dejar sus privilegios, entonces el pueblo en uso de
   las armas debe tratar de aplastar a esa clase dominante. Eso es lo A-onico
   que dice el libro y que, eventualmente, podrAa ser malinterpretado".

   Ante el encarcelamiento de Oviedo, la jefatura del EPP quedA^3 en manos de
   su cuA+-ado Osvaldo Villalba, hermano de su esposa Carmen, tambiA(c)n
   cumpliendo una pena de 18 aA+-os de prisiA^3n por la misma causa.

   El EPP reapareciA^3 la semana pasada quemando un tractor en el interior de
   una hacienda en el norteA+-o departamento de ConcepciA^3n. En las
   inmediaciones del lugar los agentes policiales encontraron un campo para
   prA!ctica de tiro, segA-on confirmA^3 el lunes el comisario Aldo Pastore,
   jefe del grupo antiguerrillero.

   Paraguay: guerrilla leader announces book launch

   ASUNCION - Alcides Oviedo, imprisoned leader of the People's Army
   guerrilla group, Paraguay (EPP), submit a book claiming the use of weapons
   to "produce a radical change in the country."

   Oviedo's lawyer, Daisy Irala, said the launch of the book will be Tuesday
   at the riot police headquarters on the outskirts of AsunciA^3n, where
   Oviedo is serving 18 years for kidnapping for ransom in 2001 Edith
   Debernardi, daughter former finance minister Enzo Debernardi. For his
   release was paid a ransom of two million dollars, police said.

   However, the Minister of Justice and Labor, Humberto Blasco, said at a
   news conference that "the government will not allow a sentenced person has
   a book in which advocacy of crime. Let's read the book and if we find
   apology, no action ".

   Irala said that the work of leftist content, "says the radical change has
   to be given through the weapons because the ruling classes will not want
   to leave their privileges, then the people using weapons to try to crush
   that kind dominant. That's all the book says that eventually could be
   misunderstood. "

   Faced with imprisonment of Oviedo, the head of EPP was left to his brother
   Osvaldo Villalba, brother of his wife Carmen, also serving a sentence of
   18 years in prison for the same reason.

   The EPP reappeared last week burning a tractor inside a farm in the
   northern province of ConcepciA^3n. In the immediate vicinity of the police
   officers found a field for target practice, as the commissioner said
   Monday Aldo Pastore, head-guerrilla group.

   Planean instalar un puesto policial de reacciA^3n rA!pida ante el EPP
   18 de Julio de 2011 12:24-
   http://www.abc.com.py/nota/planean-instalar-un-puesto-policial-de-reaccion-rapida-ante-el-epp/

   La instalaciA^3n de un puesto policial en donde estarA! un grupo de
   reacciA^3n rA!pida en caso de que aparezca el EjA(c)rcito del Pueblo
   Paraguayo (EPP) serA! tratada este lunes en una reuniA^3n entre el
   comisario Aldo Pastore y el ministro del Interior, Federico AcuA+-a.

   El corresponsal de ABC Color en ConcepciA^3n, Aldo Rojas, informA^3 que
   por la tarde se reunirA!n Pastore y AcuA+-a para tratar sobre la
   posibilidad de instalar un puesto policial en la ciudad de Hugua A*andu.

   Dicho puesto policial tendrA! policAas especializados en temas de
   secuestro y un helicA^3ptero de la PolicAa, en caso de que el EPP ataque
   alguna estancia o cuartel de la zona. De esta forma los uniformados
   tendrA!n una reacciA^3n rA!pida.

   Incursiones

   El jefe de la Fuerza Operativa de la PolicAa Especializada (FOPE)
   informA^3 al corresponsal Aldo Rojas que los operativos en la zona de Paso
   Barreto, en bA-osqueda del EPP, siguen intensamente pero con personal de
   relevo.

   El trabajo se centra en la estancia a**Amandaa**, donde la semana pasada
   los del EPP supuestamente quemaron una topadora.

   TambiA(c)n hallaron un precario stand de tiros, donde supuestamente los
   miembros del EPP dispararon contra un A!rbol entre 30 y 40 balazos.

   They plan to install a police post for rapid reaction on the EPP

   The installation of a police station where it will be a group of fast
   reaction in case you see the Paraguayan People's Army (EPP) will be
   treated Monday at a meeting between the Commissioner Aldo Pastore and
   Interior Minister Federico AcuA+-a.

   The correspondent of ABC Color in Concepcion, Aldo Rojas reported that the
   evening will meet AcuA+-a Pastore and to discuss the possibility of
   installing a police checkpoint in the city of Hugua Nandu.

   This will put police officers who specialize in kidnapping and a police
   helicopter in the event of any attack that PPE barracks room or area. In
   this way the soldiers have a quick reaction.

   raids

   The head of the Task Force of the Special Police (FOPE) Aldo Rojas
   correspondent reported that the operations in the area of a**a**Paso
   Barreto, in search of the EPP, are intensely personal but over.

   The work focuses on the farm "Amanda", where last week the EPP allegedly
   burned a bulldozer.

   They also found a poor shooting booth, where members of EPP allegedly
   fired a tree 30 to 40 bullets.

   Brasiguayos pedirA!n intermediaciA^3n del Brasil en el conflicto por la
   tierra
   18 de Julio de 2011 00:00 -
   http://www.abc.com.py/nota/brasiguayos-pediran-intermediacion-del-brasil-en-el-conflicto-por-la-tierra/

   Productores brasiguayos estA!n organizando un encuentro en Foz de
   YguazA-o, donde solicitarA!n la intermediaciA^3n del Gobierno del Brasil,
   para buscar una soluciA^3n definitiva al conflicto de tierra que soportan
   desde hace aA+-os. Los colonos brasileA+-os y sus descendientes dijeron
   que estA!n cansados de las invasiones y de las extorsiones de las que son
   vActimas de parte de los autodenominados sintierras y funcionarios
   pA-oblicos de todos los estamentos. Sin embargo, RubA(c)n Sanabria,
   dirigente de la CAP, pidiA^3 no inmiscuir en el tema a autoridades de otro
   paAs.

   CIUDAD DEL ESTE (FermAn Jara, de nuestra redacciA^3n regional). El
   encuentro se realizarAa ya a fines de agosto o comienzo de setiembre. Un
   grupo de productores brasiguayos de la zona sur del Alto ParanA! se
   reuniA^3 el pasado viernes a la tarde con el senador Alvaro Dias, quien es
   del opositor Partido de la Social Democracia BrasileA+-a (PSDB). El
   encuentro fue en el    aeropuerto de Foz, donde el vuelo del legislador
   hizo una escala.  

   Valter Mesch, quien reside en la zona de IruA+-a, dijo que ya estA!n
   cansados de las invasiones de las que son vActimas. a**No podemos estar
   trabajando en estas condicionesa**, dijo el brasiguayo, quien dijo que
   reside en el Paraguay  hace 30 aA+-os, segA-on publica el diario a**Gazeta
   Do IguazA-oa** de Foz.  

   Los productores brasiguayos indicaron que actualmente estA!n mA!s
   preocupados por la situaciA^3n atendiendo que en forma abierta el Gobierno
   del presidente Fernando Lugo estuvo apoyando las ocupaciones en la zona de
   A*acunday, donde invadieron al menos 12.000 hectA!reas de tierra
   productiva. Los seudosintierras dejaron el A!rea invadida, pero ya
   comenzaron a amenazar con mA!s invasiones.  

   Con el apoyo de los concejales de Foz de YguazA-o, los productores
   brasiguayos    indicaron que realizarA!n un encuentro en dicha ciudad
   fronteriza con el Paraguay para analizar la situaciA^3n y exigir al
   Gobierno del Brasil  intermediar ante el Gobierno paraguayo para buscar
   una soluciA^3n definitiva a los conflictos por la tierra, ademA!s
   denunciaron que son permanentemente extorsionados por funcionarios
   pA-oblicos.  

   El senador Dias ya se pronunciA^3 a favor de los brasiguayos en el
   plenario de la CA!mara de Senadores la semana pasada, exigiendo que su
   Gobierno  intermedie a favor de los colonos brasileA+-os, alegando que son
   vActimas de despojos.  

   El Congreso brasileA+-o estA! en receso y volverA! a sesionar en la
   segunda quincena de agosto. a**Como ya anunciA(c), voy a exigir que la
   ComisiA^3n de RR.EE. y de DD.HH. analicen la situaciA^3n de los
   brasiguayos en una audiencia  pA-oblica para la cual serA!n invitados las
   productores y representantes del Gobierno paraguayoa**, dijo el senador.  

   El concejal de Foz HermA^3genes de Oliveira dijo que enviA^3 sendas notas
   al  Congreso brasileA+-o, a la CancillerAa brasileA+-a y a la ministra
   jefe de la Casa Civil de la presidencia del Brasil, Glesi Hoffmann, para
   que se tomen medidas a favor de los productores brasiguayos.  

   Los productores brasiguayos y las autoridades municipales de Foz de
   YguazA-o quieren que representantes del Gobierno brasileA+-o estA(c)n en
   el encuentro de los productores, para que se vea una soluciA^3n definitiva
   al conflicto por la tenencia de tierra en Paraguay.  

   El dirigente de la Coordinadora AgrAcola del Paraguay (CAP) en el Alto
   ParanA!, ingeniero RubA(c)n Sanabria, consultado sobre el encuentro de los
   productores brasiguayos con el senador Dias y la idea de realizar una
   reuniA^3n, dijo que desconoce el tema.

   a**No inmiscuir a autoridades de otro paAsa**

   IndicA^3 que ellos, como gremio, seguirA!n insistiendo con las autoridades
   paraguayas para buscar soluciones y que el problema debe ser solucionado
   aquA internamente, y no inmiscuir a autoridades de otro paAs. Aunque dijo
   que es vA!lida la preocupaciA^3n que existe en el Brasil.  

   La actual ministra de la Casa Civil de la Presidencia del Brasil, Glesi
   Hoffmann, en febrero pasado ya se reuniA^3 con un grupo de productores
   brasiguayos. En ese momento la misma era senadora por el oficialista
   Partido de los Trabajadores (PT). La entonces legisladora se comprometiA^3
   a buscar los mecanismos necesarios para que el Gobierno del Brasil busque
   intermediar ante el paraguayo y encontrar una soluciA^3n al problema. El
   senador Dias en el 2007 participA^3 en AsunciA^3n del lanzamiento de la
   candidatura presidencial de Lino Oviedo y pidiA^3 apoyo al general
   retirado.

   Brasiguayos asked brokering of Brazil in the land dispute

   Brasiguayos producers are organizing a meeting in Foz de Iguazu, which
   requested the mediation of the Government of Brazil to seek a solution to
   the conflict of land bearing years. The Brazilian settlers and their
   descendants say they are tired of invasions and extortion of the victims
   from the self landless and public officials of all levels. However,
   RubA(c)n Sanabria, director of the CAP, asked not to intrude on the
   subject to authorities in another country.

   This was the image that was last week A*acunday area. At least 12,000
   hectares were occupied.
   CIUDAD DEL ESTE (Fermin Jara, our regional language). The meeting will
   take place as late August or early September. A group of producers
   brasiguayos the southern part of Alto ParanA! met last Friday afternoon
   with Senator Alvaro Dias, who is the opposition Party of Brazilian Social
   Democracy (PSDB). The meeting was at the airport in Foz, where the flight
   of the legislature made a stopover.

   Valter Mesch, who lives in the area of a**a**Pamplona, a**a**said they are
   tired of the invasions of the victims. "We can not work under these
   conditions," said Brasiguayos, who said he lives in Paraguay 30 years ago,
   as published by the newspaper "Gazeta do IguaAS:u" in Foz.

   Producers indicated brasiguayos currently more concerned about the
   situation openly serving in the government of President Fernando Lugo was
   supporting occupations A*acunday area where at least 12,000 hectares
   invaded productive land. The seudosintierras left the invaded area, but
   began to threaten to further invasions.

   With the support of the aldermen of Foz de Iguazu, brasiguayos producers
   indicated that a meeting held in that city on the border with Paraguay to
   discuss the situation and demand the Government of Brazil to mediate the
   Paraguayan government to seek a solution to the conflict the land, besides
   being constantly denounced extortion by public officials.

   Senator Dias already ruled in favor of brasiguayos in the plenary of the
   Senate last week, demanding that the Government procures on behalf of the
   Brazilian settlers, claiming they are victims of plunder.

   The Brazilian Congress is in recess and will convene in the second half of
   August. "As I announced, I will require that the Commission of Foreign
   Affairs DD.HH. and analyze the situation of brasiguayos at a public
   hearing which will be invited to the producers and representatives of the
   Paraguayan government, "the senator said.

   Hermogenes Councilman Foz de Oliveira said he sent two notes to the
   Brazilian Congress, the Brazilian Foreign Ministry and the chief minister
   of the Civil House of the Presidency of Brazil, Glesien Hoffmann, to take
   measures for producers brasiguayos.

   Brasiguayos producers and municipal authorities in Foz do IguaAS:u want
   the Brazilian government representatives at the meeting are producers, so
   you can see a solution to the conflict over land tenure in Paraguay.

   The leader of the Agricultural Coordinator of Paraguay (CAP) in the Upper
   ParanA!, RubA(c)n Sanabria engineer, when asked about the meeting of
   producers with Senator brasiguayos Days and the idea of a**a**a meeting,
   said that unknown subject.

   "Do not meddle authorities of another country"

   He said that they, as a guild, continue to insist with the Paraguayan
   authorities to find solutions and the problem should be solved internally
   here, and not intrude authorities of another country. While saying that it
   is valid concern in Brazil.

   The current Minister of the Civil House of the Presidency of Brazil,
   Glesien Hoffmann, last February and met with a group of producers
   brasiguayos. At that time it was Senator the ruling Workers' Party (PT).
   The legislator then promised to find the mechanisms necessary for the
   Government of Brazil with Paraguay's broker search and find a solution.
   Senator Days in 2007 participated in the launch of the Assumption
   presidential candidacy of Lino Oviedo and requested support to retired
   general.

   URUGUAY
   Mujica apelA^3 a Huidobro para articular diA!logo con FF.AA.
   18.7.2011 -
   http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.uy/Edicion-UN/articulos/prints-2011jul16/act06.html

   El jefe de Estado nombrA^3 ministro de Defensa a FernA!ndez Huidobro para
   suplir a Rosadilla. Pretende una figura que logre articular la relaciA^3n
   del gobierno con los militares.

   El presidente Mujica eligiA^3 al ex guerrillero y senador Eleuterio
   FernA!ndez Huidobro -uno de sus compaA+-eros mA!s cercanos de lucha- para
   sustituir a Luis Rosadilla al frente del Ministerio de Defensa Nacional.
   Lo hizo porque necesitaba a alguien de la "guardia vieja" en ese lugar
   estratA(c)gico del gobierno, donde pretende "no improvisar" y tener a una
   persona de "confianza polAtica".

   Una fuente de Torre Ejecutiva explicA^3 a Ultimas Noticias que las
   energAas de Huidobro estarA!n destinadas a dirigir la polAtica de Defensa
   en sus grandes lAneas, mantendrA! la relaciA^3n directa con los
   comandantes en jefe de las Fuerzas Armadas y serA! el nexo con el
   presidente. Por eso, relatA^3 la misma fuente oficial, la figura del
   subsecretario Jorge MenA(c)ndez (Partido Socialista) cobra fuerza en la
   cartera para contribuir en las cuestiones que llevan mA!s tiempo y
   dedicaciA^3n.

   Huidobro (conocido en la izquierda por su apodo "A*ato") es la figura mA!s
   visible de la primera direcciA^3n del Movimiento de LiberaciA^3n
   Nacional-Tupamaros (MLN-T), el grupo guerrillero que se alzA^3 en armas
   antes de la dictadura (1973-1985), del que tambiA(c)n formA^3 parte
   JosA(c) Mujica. Siempre reconocido por su interA(c)s por las cuestiones de
   la defensa (en el Parlamento siempre integrA^3 la comisiA^3n del ramo),
   participA^3 antes y despuA(c)s del perAodo de facto en negociaciones de
   pactos con militares. "Sabe lo que piensan, quA(c) sienten y cA^3mo
   entrarles a los militares", explicA^3 a Ultimas Noticias Mauricio
   Rosencof, ex guerrillero tupamaro, con quien compartiA^3 lucha y calabozo.

   "Me tengo que ir a un velorio, pero les quiero comunicar que, dada la
   situaciA^3n de salud del ministro de Defensa, la semana entrante el
   prA^3ximo ministro de Defensa va a ser Eleuterio FernA!ndez, el ex
   senador. Se los acabo de comunicar a los ministros, se los comunico a
   ustedes". Con esas palabras, Mujica anunciA^3 su medida ayer, en una fugaz
   conferencia de prensa -sin preguntas y parado-, tras el Consejo de
   Ministros especial celebrado en la residencia de SuA!rez y Reyes.

   "Entra al gabinete un peso pesado de la polAtica", considerA^3 Rosencof.
   Ayer, consultado por elobservador.com.uy, Huidobro dijo ser un "soldado"
   del presidente.

   Con el nuevo ministro, Mujica respeta el reparto de cargos en el gabinete
   entre los sectores de la coaliciA^3n de izquierda, ya que Huidobro
   representa y lidera a la Corriente de AcciA^3n y Pensamiento-Libertad
   (Cap-L), a la que tambiA(c)n pertenece Rosadilla.

   Varios son los desafAos que deberA! enfrentar el nuevo secretario de
   Estado, como irregularidades en la Armada y el prA^3ximo recambio de
   comandante en el EjA(c)rcito (ver recuadro).

   El A-oltimo episodio pA-oblico protagonizado por Huidobro fue el 6 de mayo
   con la renuncia al Senado, provocada por su rechazo visceral a la
   anulaciA^3n de la ley de Caducidad que pretendAa aprobar el Frente Amplio.
   El ex legislador considerA^3 la intenciA^3n como un "error polAtico".

   En la oposiciA^3n la noticia fue bien recibida. Para el diputado blanco
   Javier GarcAa (Alianza Nacional), la designaciA^3n significa una
   "oportunidad" para "reencauzar" el discurso de "acercamiento" hacia las
   Fuerzas Armadas pronunciado por Mujica al inicio de su administraciA^3n.

   SeA+-as personales del a**A*atoa**

   Huidobro ("A*ato") naciA^3 en Montevideo el 14 de marzo de 1942. IntegrA^3
   "El coordinador" y el MLN-T desde sus orAgenes. Se formA^3 en la
   preparatoria de abogacAa, fue bancario y dedicA^3 buena parte de su vida a
   escribir, sobre todo despuA(c)s de la dictadura, para contar la historia
   guerrillera y su experiencia en la cA!rcel. Fue columnista del semanario
   "Mate Amargo" y luego de a**La RepA-oblicaa** (donde integra hoy el
   consejo editor). Ya dentro del MPP fue electo diputado suplente en 1994, y
   senador titular en 1999 y 2004. RenovA^3 la banca por la Cap-L, el sector
   escindido del MPP que fundA^3.

   Mujica Huidobro appealed to articulate dialogue with armed forces

   The head of State appointed Defence Minister Fernandez Huidobro Rosadilla
   to supply. Intended a figure who managed to coordinate the government's
   relationship with the military.

   Mujica elected president and former guerrilla Senator Eleuterio FernA!ndez
   Huidobro, one of his closest companions fight-to replace Luis Rosadilla as
   Minister of National Defence. He did it because I needed someone from the
   "old guard" in this vantage point the government, which seeks "not to
   improvise" and have a person of "political trust".

   Executive Tower One source told the Ultimas Noticias Huidobro energies
   will be designed to direct the defense policy in its broad lines, maintain
   a direct relationship with the commanders of the Armed Forces and will
   liaise with the president. Therefore, said the same official source, the
   figure of Secretary Jorge Menendez (Partido Socialista) is gaining
   strength in the portfolio to contribute on issues that take more time and
   dedication.

   Huidobro (known on the left by his nickname "Pug") is the most visible
   figure in the first direction of movement Tupamaros National Liberation
   (MLN-T), the guerrilla group that took up arms before the dictatorship
   (1973 - 1985), which was also part of Jose Mujica. Always known for his
   interest in matters of defense (always in Parliament member of the
   commission in the industry), participated in before and after the de facto
   military pacts with negotiations. "You know what they think, what they
   feel and how to dig into the military," explained Maurice Rosencof Ultimas
   Noticias, a former Tupamaro guerrilla, who shared struggle and jail.

   "I have to go to a funeral, but I would like to report that, given the
   state of health of the defense minister, next week the next defense
   minister will be Eleuterio Fernandez, the former senator. They are just
   communicating to ministers, are communicated to you. " With those words,
   as Mujica announced yesterday in a brief press conference, no questions
   asked and stopped, after the Special Council of Ministers held at the
   residence of Suarez and Reyes.

   "Come to the cabinet a political heavyweight," he said Rosencof.
   Yesterday, consulted elobservador.com.uy, Huidobro said was a "soldier" of
   the president.

   With the new minister, Mujica respects the division of cabinet posts among
   the sectors of the left coalition, as Huidobro represents and leads the
   current of thought and action-Freedom (Cap-L), which also belongs
   Rosadilla .

   There are several challenges facing the new secretary of state, as
   irregularities in the Navy and the upcoming replacement of the commander
   in the army (see box).

   The last episode featuring Huidobro went public on 6 May with the
   resignation to the Senate, caused by its rejection gut to the
   nullification of the law Expiration intended to approve the Frente Amplio.
   Former legislator considered intended as a "political mistake."

   In opposition, the news was well received. For the deputy White Javier
   GarcAa (National Alliance), the designation means an "opportunity" to
   "redirect" the speech "close" to the Armed Forces Mujica delivered by the
   beginning of his administration.

   Personal details of "Nato"

   Huidobro ("NATO") was born in Montevideo on March 14, 1942. Integrated
   "coordinator" and the MLN-T since its inception. He trained at the school
   of law, was Banking and devoted much of his life to writing, especially
   after the dictatorship, to tell the story and their experience in
   guerrilla jail. He was a columnist for the weekly "Mate Amargo" and then
   "The Republic" (which now includes the editorial board). Once inside the
   MPP was elected alternate deputy in 1994 and senator in 1999 and 2004
   holder. Banking renewed by Cap-L, the sector split of the MPP he founded.

Nuevo ministro de Defensa uruguayo

   Lunes 18 de Julio de 2011 09:01-
   http://www.defensa.com/index.php?option=com_content&amp;view=article&amp;id=4198:nuevo-ministro-de-defensa-uruguayo&amp;catid=55:latinoamerica&amp;Itemid=163

   Eleuterio FernA!ndez Huidobro, hasta hace poco senador a**puesto al que
   renunciA^3 tras sentirse obligado, contra su voluntad, a votar una virtual
   derogaciA^3n de la Ley de Caducidad o amnistAa a los militares por los
   excesos cometidos durante la dictadura que acabA^3 en 1985, que fue dos
   veces ratificada en plebiscito-, tupamaro histA^3rico y participante en
   diversas acciones armadas (entre ellas el absurdo  intento de tomar la
   ciudad de Pando, en 1968),  asA como la fuga masiva del antiguo penal y
   hoy centro comercial Punta Carretas, fue nombrado ministro de Defensa
   Nacional, sustituyendo su correligionario dimitido Luis Rosadilla.
   TambiA(c)n participA^3 en negociaciones con los militares en pos de una
   posible tregua en los enfrentamientos entre el grupo terrorista y los
   uniformados en 1972.

   Empleado bancario, periodista mordaz y hasta ahora directivo del diario La
   RepA-oblica, estA! entre los mA!s firmes partidarios de dar vuelta la
   pA!gina al recurrente y desgastado tema de continuar enjuiciando a
   militares por su accionar durante el viejo rA(c)gimen cAvico-militar, en
   el que tienen interA(c)s tanto grupos del ala mas radical del oficialismo,
   como el extremista Partido por la Victoria del Pueblo, asA como por el
   ortodoxo Partido Comunista, de fuerte posicionamiento en el Poder
   Judicial, entornos culturales y el sindicalismo. FernA!ndez es el mA!s
   habitual y calificado interlocutor con la logia castrense Tenientes de
   Artigas, ultranacionalista, neofalangista, antiliberal y parcialmente
   antisemita, que, no obstante, ha dado algunas figuras moderadas al
   escenario polAtico-militar, cuyos miembros presumen de honradez y tienen
   apreciable peso actual entre las Fuerzas Armadas.
   A fines de los noventa, con el hoy presidente Mujica, mantuvo
   conversaciones con uniformados de esa procedencia para sellar asuntos del
   pasado, las cuales no llegaron a concretar una soluciA^3n, aunque las
   instancias de diA!logo continA-oan. Recientemente, Fernandez Huidobro
   afirmA^3 la inocencia del general Miguel Dalmao, primer oficial activo y
   con mando actualmente procesado sin pruebas, pues cuando era alfA(c)rez en
   1974 en el cuartel que se encontraba falleciA^3 en condiciones dudosas una
   detenida, dirigente de zona del entonces proscripto Partido Comunista, hoy
   decidido a dar su propia y peculiar batalla judicial por el pasado en
   varios frentes, mA!s allA! de la opiniA^3n del resto del oficialismo. El
   nuevo ministro  es uno de los pocos vocacionales en asuntos
   estratA(c)gicos y de Defensa dentro del entorno del Gobierno.
   Como periodista aseverA^3 su convicciA^3n sobre la importancia de
   resguardar y aumentar la soberanAa marAtima uruguaya y mejorar la
   capacidad defensiva de la Fuerza AA(c)rea, asA como impulsar las energAas
   alternativas. En 2007, junto a otras figuras conocidas, como el anterior
   ministro, Luis Rosadilla, dejA^3 el Movimiento de ParticipaciA^3n Popular
   -brazo polAtico partidario, dentro del Frente Amplio, principalmente de
   los Tupamaros- para crear un grupo algo mA!s moderado, denominado
   Corriente de AcciA^3n y Pensamiento-Libertad, al que, sin embargo, se le
   achaca la presencia de dirigentes corruptos (como el ex legislador
   Leonardo Nicolini, dos veces apartado de las cA!maras por actitudes
   fraudulentas y que tratA^3 con Marruecos para denostar al Frente
   Polisario) o la probable financiaciA^3n parcial de sus campaA+-as por
   parte de polA(c)micos empresarios uruguayo-calabreses.
   Una empresa de servicios en la que su esposa es ejecutiva fue en 2009
   acusada de fraude por programas de limpieza en el hospital mA!s antiguo de
   Uruguay, del cual algunos directivos fueron apartados y procesados,
   atribuyA(c)ndose la filtraciA^3n del problema a la Justicia a dirigentes
   radicales de los Tupamaros, respondiendo a otro histA^3rico, de posturas
   extremas, Julio Marenales. Pese a estas vicisitudes, el nuevo ministro -un
   empedernido fumador que ya tuvo serios problemas de salud al respecto-
   continuA^3 de forma casi imperturbable su carrera polAtica, que hoy se
   encuentra ante su mayor desafAo, de acuerdo a las palabras del primer
   mandatario, quien expresA^3 que Defensa es la cartera mA!s dificil para
   cualquier gobierno de izquierda" (Javier Bonilla, corresponsal de Grupo
   Edefa en Uruguay).

   Uruguay's new defense minister
   Monday July 18, 2011 09:01 -

   Eleuterio Fernandez Huidobro, until recently the senator since he resigned
   after feeling compelled against his will, to vote a virtual repeal of the
   amnesty law or the military amnesty for excesses committed during the
   dictatorship that ended in 1985, which was twice ratified by plebiscite,
   and historical tupamaro participant in various armed actions (including
   the absurd attempt to take the city of Pando, 1968), and the massive
   flight of the old prison and Punta Carretas mall today, was appointed
   Minister National Defense, replacing his colleague Luis Rosadilla
   resigned. He also participated in negotiations with the military toward a
   possible truce in the fighting between the terrorist group and the
   soldiers in 1972.

   Bank clerk, journalist poignant and so far management of the newspaper La
   RepA-oblica, is among the staunchest supporters of turning the page to the
   appellant and worn topic of continuing military prosecuting their actions
   during the old civil-military regime, which have both interest groups more
   radical wing of the ruling, as the extremist Party for People's Victory,
   as well as the orthodox Communist Party, strong position in the judiciary,
   cultural backgrounds and trade unionism. Fernandez is the most common and
   qualified partner with Lieutenants Artigas military lodge,
   ultra-nationalist, neo-Falangist, partly liberal and anti-Semitic,
   however, has some figures on stage moderate political and military, whose
   members boast of honesty and have considerable weight between the Armed
   Forces today.
   In the late nineties, the current president Mujica, held talks with
   uniforms from that source to seal issues of the past, which failed to
   specify a solution, although the means of dialogue continues. Recently,
   Fernandez Huidobro said the innocence of General Miguel Dalmao, Chief
   Officer Command currently active and processed without proof, because when
   I was a lieutenant in 1974 at the headquarters who was killed in dubious
   circumstances a careful, leader of banned area then Communist Party today
   decided to give his own peculiar legal battle with the past on several
   fronts beyond the opinion of the rest of officialdom. The new minister is
   one of the few vocational strategic issues and defense within the
   environment of the Government.
   As a journalist said his conviction about the importance of protecting and
   enhancing Uruguayan maritime sovereignty and improve the defense
   capability of the Air Force, as well as promoting alternative energy. In
   2007, along with other well-known figures such as former minister, Luis
   Rosadilla left the Popular Participation Movement, the political wing
   party within the Frente Amplio, mainly from the Tupamaros-to create a more
   moderate group, called the Power of Action and Thought, Freedom, which,
   however, he blames the presence of corrupt leaders (like former legislator
   Leonardo Nicolini, twice the cameras away from fraudulent attitude with
   Morocco and tried to insult the Polisario Front) or probable partial
   funding of their campaigns by Uruguayan-Calabrian controversial
   businessmen.
   A service company in which his wife is executive in 2009 was accused of
   fraud by cleanup programs in the oldest hospital in Uruguay, which some
   managers were removed and processed, the filtering problem attributed to
   Justice leaders radicals Tupamaros, responding to a historical, extremes,
   July Marenales. Despite these vicissitudes, the new minister, an
   inveterate smoker who already had serious health problems in this regard
   he continued in an almost imperturbable his political career, which now
   faces its greatest challenge, according to the words of the president, who
   Defense said that the portfolio is more difficult for any government left
   "(Javier Bonilla correspondent EDEF Group in Uruguay).

   Presidente de ColonizaciA^3n pide mA!s recursos para evitar
   extranjerizaciA^3n
   AndrA(c)s Berterreche dijo a radio SarandA que a**cuanto mA!s pueda
   adquirir el Instituto Nacional de ColonizaciA^3n, mA!s desconcentrada y
   mA!s nacional va a ser esta tierraa**
   18.07.2011, 14:23 hs -
   http://www.elobservador.com.uy/noticia/205679/presidente-de-colonizacion-pide-mas-recursos-para-evitar-extranjerizacion/

   El presidente del Instituto Nacional de ColonizaciA^3n (INC), AndrA(c)s
   Berterreche, argumentA^3 que la mejor manera de evitar la
   extranjerizaciA^3n y concentraciA^3n de la tierra en Uruguay es una
   acciA^3n mA!s activa del INC. El jerarca dijo a radio SarandA 690 que el
   asunto requiere de una discusiA^3n pA-oblica.

   a**Es bueno que el gobierno marque la cancha y diga hacia dA^3nde vamos en
   este sentido. Creo que la tierra por suerte en este aA+-o va a tener una
   discusiA^3n pA-oblica muy importantea**, agregA^3.
    
   Este lunes el diario El PaAs informA^3 que un documento del Estado Mayor
   de la Defensa (Esmade) asegura que las consecuencias de la creciente
   adquisiciA^3n de tierras por parte de extranjeros es una a**pA(c)rdida de
   soberanAa y del control nacional sobre el territorio y los recursos
   naturalesa**.

   El anA!lisis del Esmade se basa en datos relevados por la fundaciA^3n
   argentina Pensar, que indican que Uruguay es el paAs con mayor porcentaje
   de tierras en manos de extranjeros en comparaciA^3n con sus vecinos
   regionales. El 25,6% es el dato que se maneja por Pensar para Uruguay,
   mientras que en Argentina la cifra es de 3,4% y en Brasil de 1,2%.

   Berterreche dijo desconocer ese documento y, por lo tanto, sus
   conclusiones. AdemA!s, indicA^3 que este fenA^3meno a**no es exclusivo de
   Uruguaya**.

   El jerarca sostuvo que a**la mejor acciA^3n que se puede tener para
   disminuir la concentraciA^3n y extranjerizaciA^3n es la acciA^3n del INC
   en el territorioa**. AgregA^3 que a**cuanto mA!s pueda adquirir el INC,
   mA!s desconcentrada y mA!s nacional va a ser esta tierraa**.

   Acerca de una normativa para frenar el proceso de extranjerizaciA^3n, dijo
   preferir el a**desestAmulo (para los compradores) y la acciA^3n positiva
   del INCa**, ya que a**solamente trancar no es la manera porque le van a
   buscar la forma de hacerle el bypass a la normativaa**.

   La acciA^3n positiva a la que hizo referencia significa a**darle recursos
   al INC (para que A(c)ste pueda) comprar tierras y dA!rselas a los
   aspirantes a colonos, que cada vez son mA!sa**.

   Colonization President calls for more resources to avoid foreign control
   Andrew told Radio Sarandi Berterreche that "the more you can purchase the
   National Colonization Institute, more decentralized and more national
   going to be this earth"

   The president of the National Colonization Institute (INC), AndrA(c)s
   Berterreche argued that the best way to avoid foreign ownership and
   concentration of land in Uruguay is a more active INC. The governor told
   Radio Sarandi 690 that the matter requires a public discussion.

   "It's good that the government check the court and say where we are going
   in this direction. I think the earth luck this year will have a major
   public discussion, "he said.
    
   On Monday the newspaper El Pais reported that a document of the General
   Staff of Defense (ESMAD) ensures that the consequences of the increasing
   acquisition of land by foreigners is a "loss of sovereignty and national
   control over territory and natural resources ".

   ESMAD analysis is based on data collected by the foundation Argentina
   Thinking, indicating that Uruguay is the country with the highest
   percentage of land held by foreigners compared to its regional neighbors.
   25.6% is the data that is handled by Thought for Uruguay, while in
   Argentina the figure is 3.4% and 1.2% in Brazil.

   Berterreche said he was unaware that document and, therefore, its
   conclusions. He also indicated that this phenomenon "is not unique to
   Uruguay."

   The governor said that "the best action you can take to reduce the
   concentration and foreign ownership is the action of the INC in the
   territory." He added that "the more you can purchase the INC, the more
   decentralized and more national will be this land."

   About legislation to stop the process of denationalization, said they
   preferred the "disincentive (for buyers) and positive action by the INC,"
   and that "only lockout is not the way because you will find a way to make
   the bypass the rules. "

   Positive action to which he referred meant "to give resources to the INC
   (so that it can) buy land and give to aspiring settlers, who are
   increasingly"

   PERU
   Humala cae 29 puntos antes de asumir la presidencia
   July 18, 2011

   http://internacional.eluniversal.com/2011/07/18/humala-cae-29-puntos-antes-de-asumir-la-presidencia.shtml

   Lima.- La popularidad del presidente electo Ollanta Humala en menos de un
   mes cayA^3 29 puntos, descenso atribuido a una polA(c)mica visita a Rusia
   de su hermano Alexis, segA-on una encuesta nacional publicada el domingo.

   De acuerdo con el sondeo realizado por la firma Ipsos-Apoyo y publicado
   por el diario El Comercio, la aprobaciA^3n a Humala descendiA^3 a 41%, de
   70% que registrA^3 en una encuesta de la misma firma el 19 de junio sobre
   la popularidad de Humala, que ganA^3 la presidencia el 5 de junio en la
   segunda ronda frente a Keiko Fujimori, informA^3 AP.

   SegA-on la nueva encuesta, el presidente electo recibiA^3 una aprobaciA^3n
   de 41% y una desaprobaciA^3n del 31% de los consultados. No precisa, 28%.

   El director de Ipsos Apoyo, Alfredo Torres, dijo a El Comercio que "el
   escA!ndalo suscitado a raAz del viaje de Alexis Humala, el hermano del
   presidente electo, le ha costado a Humala la caAda de 29 puntos en su
   aprobaciA^3n".

   La encuesta muestra que 82% desaprueba el viaje a MoscA-o de Alexis
   Humala, hermano menor del presidente electo, quien se reuniA^3 con
   funcionarios y empresarios rusos la primera semana de julio donde hablA^3
   de futuros convenios bilaterales.

   El hermano de Humala -un empresario que estudiA^3 en Rusia- se reuniA^3
   con el canciller ruso Sergey Lavrov, con autoridades del sector pesca y
   funcionarios de la gigante gasAfera Gazprom y de la fabricante de armas
   Rosoboronexport.

   Un 77% cree que el hermano de Ollanta Humala "fue a Rusia en beneficio
   personal", mientras solo 10% considera que su viaje fue "en beneficio del
   paAs". Un 13% no precisa.

   Las reuniones del hermano en Rusia "como enviado especial del presidente
   electo" se convirtieron en noticia en PerA-o luego sendos comunicados de
   la cancillerAa rusa y la firma Gazprom en sus respectivos sitios de
   internet.

   Tras los sucesos, el izquierdista presidente electo sostuvo que desconocAa
   del viaje de su hermano y que nunca le dio la autoridad para que lo
   represente en MoscA-o. No obstante, 60% cree que Humala "sabAa del viaje"
   de Alexis.

   Gana PerA-o, el partido polAtico de Humala, suspendiA^3 al hermano Humala
   de sus derechos partidarios mientras dure la investigaciA^3n por el viaje
   a Rusia.

   El viaje a MoscA-o se ha tornando en una piedra en el zapato para Humala e
   incluso opacA^3 su retorno de una importante gira por Estados Unidos donde
   se reuniA^3 con el presidente Barack Obama.

   La derecha y un mayoritario sector de la prensa han pedido un
   pronunciamiento de Humala sobre el viaje del hermano.

   Humala iniciarA! su gobierno el 28 de julio de 2011 como sucesor del
   presidente Alan GarcAa, de quien es opositor.

   Alejandro Toledo: El camino al 2016 comienza ya
   July 18, 2011

   http://www.larepublica.pe/18-07-2011/alejandro-toledo-el-camino-al-2016-comienza-ya

   Ex mandatario viajarA! por todo el PerA-o para reestructurar partido
   PerA-o Posible. El miA(c)rcoles se reA-one con presidente electo Ollanta
   Humala para definir la participaciA^3n de PerA-o Posible en el primer
   gabinete.

   Durante su visita al Cusco para recibir la distinciA^3n de Hijo Ilustre
   del distrito de Machu Picchu, el ex presidente Alejandro Toledo anunciA^3
   el inicio de una gira por todo el PerA-o para reestructurar el partido
   PerA-o Posible, de cara a las prA^3ximas elecciones presidenciales del
   2016. De manera eufA^3rica, indicA^3 que a**el camino al 2016 comienza
   yaa**.

   Toledo aclarA^3 que su candidatura no estaba decidida para las prA^3ximas
   elecciones presidenciales, pero seA+-alA^3 que su principal labor serA!
   evitar que se vuelvan a construir a**murallasa** entre A(c)l y las bases
   del partido PerA-o Posible.

   a**He decidido postergar mis compromisos internacionales para quedarme en
   el PerA-o y recorrerlo a lo largo y ancho para reestructurar mi partido.
   Vamos a fortalecerlo, modernizarlo y dar oportunidades a los jA^3venes. Me
   han puesto una trampa para que no vuelva a gobernar el PerA-o, y serAa
   fA!cil para mA decir buenas noches los pastores, nos vemos en cinco
   aA+-os, pero no lo voy a hacera**, anotA^3.

   Sobre un posible enfrentamiento electoral el aA+-o 2016 con Alan GarcAa, a
   quien culpA^3 de su derrota en las pasadas justas presidenciales, Toledo
   seA+-alA^3: a**No veo la competencia como una revancha, pero si tenemos
   que volverle a ganar como lo hicimos el 2001, lo volveremos a hacera**.

   Respecto a la participaciA^3n de PerA-o Posible con algunos ministros en
   el primer gabinete de Ollanta Humala, el ex presidente advirtiA^3 que
   aA-on falta una conversaciA^3n con el lAder de Gana PerA-o. AclarA^3 que
   la decisiA^3n final serA! tomada por el presidente electo.

   a**Nuestro apoyo no fue interesado, el dAa 20 (miA(c)rcoles), cuando el
   presidente regrese de su gira internacional, vamos a encontrarnos para
   redefinir si PerA-o Posible tomarA! la decisiA^3n de participar en el
   gabinete, pero en todo caso habrA! apoyo en tres A!reas. Si decidimos
   apoyar en el Ejecutivo, habrA! un apoyo polAtico y habrA! un apoyo en el
   Congreso de la RepA-oblicaa**, detallA^3.

   Por otro lado, Alejandro Toledo volviA^3 a culpar al presidente Alan
   GarcAa por una a**confabulaciA^3n maquiavA(c)licaa** para sacarlo de
   carrera y favorecer a Keiko Fujimori.

   Claves

   AcompaA+-ado. Durante su estancia en Cusco, el ex presidente Alejandro
   Toledo en todo momento estuvo acompaA+-ado por su esposa Eliane Karp y se
   mostrA^3 confiado en la recuperaciA^3n del crecimiento econA^3mico de
   nuestro paAs.

   Nombres. a**Apenas se clarifiquen los nombres del nuevo gabinete el
   prA^3ximo 28 de julio, el panorama debe ser mA!s claro; solo espero que
   GarcAa no deje bombas de tiempoa**, dijo.

   Presidente electo: PerA-o tiene que construir su camino y no copiarA!
   otros modelos
   July 18, 2011

   http://www.andina.com.pe/Espanol/Noticia.aspx?id=402N4hrF7lY=

   El presidente electo, Ollanta Humala, seA+-alA^3 que el PerA-o tiene que
   construir su propio modelo de desarrollo y no copiarA! a otros de la
   regiA^3n, no obstante, dijo que se deben respetar las diferencias
   ideolA^3gicas o de polAticas econA^3micas de otros paAses.

   a**El PerA-o tiene que construir un camino propio, no podemos estar
   copiando ni a Venezuela, Estados Unidos ni a Chilea**, subrayA^3.

   Sostuvo que con otros paAses de la regiA^3n puede haber diferencias de
   carA!cter ideolA^3gico o de modelo econA^3mico, pero que a**hay que
   respetara**, y el error estA! en tratar de que todos los paAses vecinos
   piensen y actA-oen como nosotros.

   a**AhA perdemos tiempo, tenemos que ser pragmA!ticosa**, agregA^3.

   En ese sentido, indicA^3 que los nuevos adversarios comunes tanto de
   Veneuela, Bolivia, Chile, y el PerA-o, los a**verdaderos enemigos de
   LatinoamA(c)ricaa**,  son la desigualdad, el narcotrA!fico, la pobreza, la
   desnutriciA^3n, la violencia.

   RefiriA^3 que la gira que emprendiA^3 por todos los paAses de AmA(c)rica
   del Sur  tuvo la intenciA^3n de fortalecer las relaciones internacionales,
   y un logro ha sido la convocatoria a que la prA^3xima reuniA^3n de la
   UniA^3n de Naciones Suramericanas (Unasur) sea el 28 de julio en Lima.

   a**AdemA!s hemos logrado lAneas de crA(c)dito de organismos multilaterales
   como la CAF por 7 mil 500 millones de dA^3lares, el BID y tambiA(c)n estA!
   pendiente una conversaciA^3n con el Banco Mundiala**, dijo en el programa
   Cuarto Poder.

   Asimismo, destacA^3 su visita a los Estados Unidos como un viaje
   importante, por la deferencia del presidente Barack Obama, de recibirlo en
   la Casa Blanca, porque no es parte del protocolo de dicho paAs recibir a
   mandatarios electos.

   RefiriA^3 que la a**excepciA^3na** que realizA^3 Barack Obama con su
   persona, fue porque el PerA-o es un paAs importante por la coyuntura que
   se vive en la regiA^3n.

   a**Estados Unidos no tiene relaciones diplomA!ticas con varios paAses de
   la regiA^3n, con los cuales el nuevo gobierno (de PerA-o) tiene unas
   relaciones muy buenas, como es el caso de Venezuela, Ecuador y Boliviaa**,
   subrayA^3.

   SeA+-alA^3 que Estados Unidos estA! poniendo atenciA^3n nuevamente a la
   regiA^3n latinoamericana, al ser una regiA^3n que ha venido consolidando
   un crecimiento econA^3mico desde hace mA!s de ocho aA+-os.

   El electo mandatario recordA^3 que la conversaciA^3n que sostuvo con
   Barack Obama fue bastante abierta, transparente, y el presidente
   estadounidense le manifestA^3 su deseo en algA-on momento de visitar
   LatinoamA(c)rica, y tambiA(c)n lo invitA^3 a la prA^3xima reuniA^3n del
   Foro de CooperaciA^3n EconA^3mica Asia PacAfico (APEC) en Hawai.

   Peruvian Stocks Surge as Humala Says Hea**ll Keep Velarde Atop Central
   Bank
   Jul 18, 2011 -
   http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-18/peruvian-stocks-surge-after-humala-says-central-bank-president-to-stay.html

   Perua**s benchmark stock index surged after President-elect Ollanta Humala
   said Central Bank President Julio Velarde will remain in his post,
   signaling that policies that spurred the regiona**s fastest economic
   growth in the last decade will continue.

   The Lima General Index rose 4.5 percent to 21,262.30 at 2:21 p.m. New York
   time, the biggest one-day gain since June 7. It was the biggest gainer
   among 91 equity indexes tracked by Bloomberg. The gauge was led by zinc
   exploration company Rio Cristal Resources Corp. and Caterpillar Inc.
   distributor Ferreyros SA. (FERREYC1) Velarde will serve another five-year
   term to help ensure economic stability, Humala said yesterday.

   a**Velardea**s appointment is a very good signal,a** said Sebastian
   Blondet, a trader at Celfin Capital SAB. a**The markets were waiting for a
   sign that Humala will maintain macroeconomic policies and a stable
   currency.a**

   Humala, who takes office July 28, is seeking to reassure investors
   concerned that his plans to raise mining royalties may slow private
   investment. Since being appointed in 2006 to head the central bank,
   Velarde, 59, has helped triple international reserves to a record $47
   billion and raised lending rates to a two-year high in May to curb
   inflation, which has been the lowest in the region since 2006.

   Peruvian bonds and the currency also gained. The sol increased 0.1 percent
   to 2.7380 per U.S. dollar, from 2.74 on July 15.

   The yield on the nationa**s benchmark 7.84 percent sol- denominated bond
   due August 2020 fell two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 6.28
   percent, according to prices compiled by Bloomberg. The bonda**s price
   rose 0.14 centimo to 110.71 centimos per sol.
   Yield Spread

   The extra yield investors demand to hold Peruvian bonds instead of
   Treasuries, or spread, narrowed to 1.73 percentage points today, according
   to JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co.a**s benchmark emerging-market index.

   A surge in gold, the countrya**s second-biggest export earner after
   copper, also helped fuel the advance today. Fifteen of the 34 stocks in
   the index are mining shares, including five gold miners.

   Humala said in a July 17 television interview hea**ll seek to spur
   investment in the Andean nationa**s mining and gas industries and pledged
   to announce ministerial posts on July 20.

   Velarde introduced measures including raising reserve requirements for
   bank deposits to rein in lending. He increased the operating limit on
   pension fund managersa** investments overseas four times last year to help
   cool demand for the local currency.

   Perua**s economy expanded 7.1 percent in May, the slowest pace in more
   than a year, as companies slowed spending on concern Humalaa**s policies
   may deter foreign investment.

   a**This is very positive news from a market perspective,a** Credit Suisse
   AG economist Carola Sandy said today in an e- mailed report. a**It signals
   that monetary policy will remain independent.a**

   El director general de Hidrocarburos del Ministerio de EnergAa y Minas
   anunciA^3 el hallazgo de un nuevo yacimiento en la selva central
   18 de julio de 2011 -
   http://elcomercio.pe/economia/887459/noticia-peru-tiene-reservas-gas-natural-proximos-50-anos

   (Andina). El Ministerio de EnergAa y Minas (MEM) estimA^3 hoy que en la
   actualidad, el PerA-o tiene reservas de gas natural para los prA^3ximos 40
   a 50 aA+-os.

   a**Pero no me sorprenderAa que en cinco a seis aA+-os se pueda disponer de
   40 a 50 trillones de pies cA-obicos (TCF) porque todavAa hay zonas que no
   se han tocadoa**, seA+-alA^3 el director general de Hidrocarburos del MEM,
   JosA(c) Robles.

   Al mismo tiempo, anunciA^3 que se ha descubierto un nuevo yacimiento de
   gas en la selva central, el cual es diferente a los demA!s, aunque dijo
   que la tecnologAa ya permite conocer la manera de producir el gas en estos
   casos.

   MencionA^3 que las reservas probadas de gas natural que tiene el PerA-o en
   la actualidad son del orden de 12,5 TCF, aunque a**en realidad se tiene
   mA!s gas del que se conocea**.

   RefiriA^3 que en la capacidad de procesamiento de gas natural en la planta
   de Malvinas se estA! incrementando y desde el prA^3ximo aA+-o estarA! en
   capacidad de procesar casi 1.600 millones de pies cA-obicos al dAa
   (MMPCD).

   ABASTECIMIENTO DE GAS EN LIMA
   Por otro lado, Robles detallA^3 que en la actualidad se cuenta con 50.000
   conexiones de gas natural a los hogares de Lima, lo que significa que se
   ha sobrepasado las 25.000 que estaban previstas inicialmente.

   a**Se requiere, en promedio, 20.000 pies cA-obicos diarios por consumidor
   y no habrA! ningA-on problema para abastecerlos porque hay gas suficiente
   en el paAsa**, asegurA^3.

   SUR CHICO CON GAS DESDE EL 2013
   En tanto, el funcionario resaltA^3 el permanente esfuerzo que ha venido
   desplegando el gobierno, a travA(c)s del MEM, para llevar los beneficios
   del gas natural a toda la poblaciA^3n peruana

   a**Chincha, Pisco, Ica y San Juan de Marcona van a contar con gas natural
   a partir del 2013a**, anunciA^3 al seA+-alar que los trabajos del
   gasoducto para esta zona, estA!n avanzados.

   Sobre el Gasoducto Andino del Sur de Kuntur, que costarA! 1.334 millones
   de dA^3lares, Robles indicA^3 que A(c)ste va a recorrer toda la regiA^3n
   Cusco, pasando cerca de Puno, Juliaca y Arequipa para terminar en Ilo.

   Asimismo, destacA^3 la contribuciA^3n que ofrecen los ductos virtuales que
   llevan el gas natural en camiones, los cuales podrAan beneficiar a
   localidades fuera de Lima Metropolitana como Chancay y Huacho.

   a**En el norte, Piura y Chiclayo disponen igualmente del gas natural
   producido en Talara, gracias a los ductos virtuales. En tanto en Arequipa,
   la municipalidad ha decidido tambiA(c)n llevar el gas desde Lima para una
   lAnea de A^3mnibusa**, aA+-adiA^3.

   The Director General of Hydrocarbons of the Ministry of Energy and Mines
   announced the discovery of a new field in the central jungle

   (Andina). The Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM) said today that at
   present, Peru has reserves of natural gas for the next 40 to 50 years.

   "But I would not be surprised if in five to six years may have 40 to 50
   trillion cubic feet (TCF) because there are still areas that have not been
   touched," said the director general of Hydrocarbons of the MEM, Jose
   Robles.

   At the same time announced that it has discovered a new gas field in the
   central jungle, which is different to others, but said the technology
   already allows the method to produce the gas in these cases.

   He mentioned that the proven reserves of natural gas that Peru has now are
   of the order of 12.5 TCF, but "actually has more gas than is known."

   He said that the ability of natural gas processing plant in Malvinas is
   increasing, and from next year will be able to process about 1,600 cubic
   feet per day (MMSCFD).

   SUPPLY OF GAS IN LIMA
   On the other hand, Robles explained that at present has 50,000 natural gas
   connections to households in Lima, which means that it has surpassed the
   25,000 who were initially planned.

   "It takes, on average, 20,000 cubic feet per day per customer and there is
   no problem to supply them because there is enough gas in the country," he
   said.

   SOUTH CHICO GAS FROM 2013
   Meanwhile, the official pointed out the ongoing effort that has been
   making the government, through the MEM, to bring the benefits of natural
   gas to all Peruvians

   "Chincha, Pisco, Ica and San Juan de Marcona are going to have natural gas
   in 2013," said noting that the work of the pipeline for this area are
   advanced.

   On the South Andean Pipeline Kuntur, which will cost 1,334 million
   dollars, Robles said he will go all the Cusco region, passing near Puno,
   Arequipa and Juliaca to finish in Ilo.

   He highlighted the contribution offered by the virtual pipeline carrying
   natural gas trucks, which could benefit locations outside of metropolitan
   Lima and Chancay and Huacho.

   "In the north, Piura and Chiclayo also have the natural gas produced in
   Talara, thanks to virtual products. While in Arequipa, the city has also
   decided to take gas from Lima to a bus line, "he added.

   MA(c)xico espera abrir con PerA-o nueva etapa en relaciA^3n bilateral,
   afirma presidente CalderA^3n
   http://www.andina.com.pe/Espanol/Noticia.aspx?id=BHFTtbvnsQw=

   Ciudad de MA(c)xico, jul. 18 (ANDINA). El presidente de MA(c)xico, Felipe
   CalderA^3n, anunciA^3 una nueva etapa en la relaciA^3n con el PerA-o y
   dijo que trabajarA! en forma conjunta y constructiva, junto al mandatario
   electo Ollanta Humala, polAticas que permitan abrir mA!s caminos para el
   progreso.
   a**Es un hecho que el presidente electo Ollanta Humala y este servidor
   vamos a trabajar con espAritu de colaboraciA^3n y de amistad, que vamos a
   unir esfuerzos a fin de abrir paso a una nueva etapa de la relaciA^3n
   bilaterala**, seA+-alA^3 en una declaraciA^3n pA-oblica conjunta con
   Humala Tasso. 
   RemarcA^3 que, en esa nueva etapa a**constructivaa**, la prioridad de
   ambos gobiernos serA! mejorar las condiciones de vida de peruanos y
   mexicanos, y abrir mA!s caminos para la libertad, la democracia, y el
   progreso. 
   SubrayA^3 que para MA(c)xico es muy importante consolidar la alianza
   econA^3mica que mantiene con el PerA-o, a fin de lograr que ambos paAses
   fortalezcan sus economAas, generando crecimiento y empleo para sus
   poblaciones. 
   En ese sentido, dijo esperar que el Congreso de MA(c)xico ratifique el
   acuerdo comercial negociado con PerA-o, en los A-oltimos aA+-os. 
   a**MA(c)xico y PerA-o hemos negociado un acuerdo de integraciA^3n
   comercial que comprende preferencias comerciales para mA!s de 12 mil
   productos, A(c)sta negociaciA^3n que durA^3 5 aA+-os ahora estA! a
   consideraciA^3n del Congreso mexicano y esperamos que muy pronto pueda ser
   ratificado para que podamos aprovechar plenamente las oportunidades mutuas
   de comercio e inversiA^3na**, afirmA^3. 
   a**Al Senado invoco a que valoren en toda su dimensiA^3n la importancia de
   que MA(c)xico ensanche su alianza con PerA-o. Un pueblo que ha salido
   adelante con enorme esfuerzo y que tiene ahora una de las economAas mas
   destacadas de la regiA^3na**, agregA^3.
   Asimismo, invitA^3 al presidente electo a unir esfuerzos para lograr la
   meta de una AmA(c)rica Latina mA!s fuerte y prA^3spera, a travA(c)s de
   alianzas estratA(c)gicas con paAses afines. 
   a**MA(c)xico y PerA-o tienen todo para constituir, con otras naciones de
   AmA(c)rica Latina, una de las alianzas econA^3micas mA!s importantes,
   competitivas y de mayor crecimientoa**, acotA^3. 
   CalderA^3n recibiA^3 hoy al presidente electo Ollanta Humala, con quien
   sostuvo una reuniA^3n en la sede gubernamental azteca.
   Mexico with Peru expected to open new chapter in bilateral relations, says
   CalderA^3n

   Mexico City, July. 18 (ANDINA). Mexico's President Felipe Calderon
   announced a new stage in relations with Peru and said he would work
   jointly and constructively with the president-elect Ollanta Humala
   policies to open up more avenues for progress.
   "The fact that President-elect Ollanta Humala and myself are going to work
   in a spirit of cooperation and friendship, let's join hands to make way
   for a new stage of bilateral relations", said in a joint public statement
   with Humala Tasso.
   He stressed that in this new phase "constructive", the priority of both
   governments to improve the conditions of life of Peruvians and Mexicans,
   and open more avenues for freedom, democracy and progress.
   He stressed that Mexico is very important to strengthen the economic
   partnership it has with Peru, to ensure that both countries strengthen
   their economies, generating growth and employment for their populations.
   In this regard, said he expected Mexico's Congress to ratify the
   negotiated trade agreement with Peru in recent years.
   "Mexico and Peru have negotiated a trade integration agreement that
   includes trade preferences for over 12 thousand products, this negotiation
   that lasted 5 years is now considered by the Mexican Congress and we hope
   soon to be ratified so that we can fully exploit the opportunities mutual
   trade and investment, "he said.
   "The Senate invoke to assess the full extent of the importance of Mexico
   to broaden their alliance with Peru. A people has come out with great
   effort and now has one of most outstanding economies of the region, "he
   said.
   He also invited the president-elect to join efforts to achieve the goal of
   an America stronger and more prosperous America, through strategic
   alliances with like-minded countries.
   "Mexico and Peru have everything to be with other nations in Latin
   America, one of the most important economic alliances, competitive and
   fastest growing," he said.
   Calderon was elected president today Ollanta Humala, who held a government
   meeting at the Aztec.
</description>
    <date>2011-07-18 23:13:25</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-13 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/92424_-latam-pup-brief-110718-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>rbaker@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>allison.fedirka@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>latam@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:latam@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>92666</id>
    <title>Re: Will be visiting Zaman office today
</title>
    <description>   Dear Hamit,
   It was delightful to meet you today. Thank you again for taking the time
   and for being so open. I learned a lot from our meeting, and it is my hope
   that we can continue a cooperative dialogue. Will be in touch soon.
   All the best,
   Reva
   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Abdulhamit Bilici" &lt;A.Bilici@cihan.com.tr&gt;
   To: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, March 8, 2010 4:53:15 AM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re: Will be visiting Zaman office today

   Dear Reva Bhalla,
   If it is ok for you, we can chat together. 
   best regards
   hamit
    
   On 08.Mar.2010, at 12:34, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     Dear Mr. Bilici,
     I will be meeting your colleague from Today's Zaman, Bulent Kenes, today
     at your main office at 3pm. If you are available any time after that, I
     would love to meet you while I am there.
     Best,
     Reva Bhalla
     Director of Analysis
     STRATFOR
     www.stratfor.com
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Analyst for Middle East, South Asia and Latin America
     +1 (512) 699-8385 (mobile)
     On Mar 6, 2010, at 11:30 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

       Dear Mr. Bilici,
       I met your colleague, Ali Aslan, last week in DC, where I am based as
       an analyst for STRATFOR. I told him that I'll be in Istanbul this week
       and he strongly recommended that I get in touch with you. If you are
       available some time early in the week (Monday, the 8th, perhaps?) to
       meet, please let me know. I've been working on Turkey issues for a
       while and your publication does very important work. It would be great
       to sit down and chat with you if you have some time.
       All the best,
       Reva Bhalla
       Director of Analysis
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Analyst for Middle East, South Asia and Latin America
       +1 (512) 699-8385

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   YASAL UYARI: Bu e-posta'nA:+-n iAS:erdiA:*i bilgiler (ekleri de dahil
   olmak A 1/4zere) gizlidir. Cihan Haber AjansA:+-'nA:+-n onayA:+-
   olmaksA:+-zA:+-n iAS:eriA:*i kopyalanamaz, A 1/4AS:A 1/4ncA 1/4 kiAA*ilere
   aAS:A:+-klanamaz veya iletilemez . Bu mesajA:+-n gAP:nderilmek istendiA:*i
   kiAA*i deA:*ilseniz (ya da bu e-postaa**yA:+- yanlA:+-AA*lA:+-kla
   aldA:+-ysanA:+-z), lA 1/4tfen yollayan kiAA*iyi haberdar ediniz ve
   mesajA:+- sisteminizden derhal siliniz. Cihan Haber AjansA:+-, bu
   mesajA:+-n iAS:erdiA:*i bilgilerin doA:*ruluA:*u veya eksiksiz olduA:*u
   konusunda bir garanti vermemektedir. Bu nedenle, bilgilerin ne AA*ekilde
   olursa olsun iAS:eriA:*inden, iletilmesinden, alA:+-nmasA:+-ndan,
   saklanmasA:+-ndan Cihan Haber AjansA:+- sorumlu deA:*ildir. Bu mesajA:+-n
   iAS:eriA:*i yazarA:+-na ait olup, Cihan Haber AjansA:+- 'nA:+-n gAP:rA
   1/4AA*lerini iAS:ermeyebilir. Bu e-posta bizce bilinen tA 1/4m bilgisayar
   virA 1/4slerine karsA:+- taranmA:+-AA*tA:+-r.

   DISCLAIMER: This e-mail (including any attachments) may contain
   confidential and/or privileged information. Copying, disclosure or
   distribution of the material in this e-mail without our Cihan News
   Agencya**s authority is strictly forbidden. If you are not the intended
   recipient (or have received this e-mail in error), please notify the
   sender immediately. Cihan News Agency makes
   no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information
   contained in this message and hereby excludes any liability of any kind
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</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-03 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/92666_re-will-be-visiting-zaman-office-today-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>A.Bilici@cihan.com.tr</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>93089</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - VZ02 - More background/explanation on	PDVSA's
 gradual decline
</title>
    <description>   actually, in a centrally planned economy they'd be fairly unlikely to do
   this because it raises the cost w/o actually enhancing the project in
   anyway

   what they're trying to do is get OTHERS to pay for it -- and as the source
   says, it aint working very well

   On 7/20/11 10:24 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

     It's pretty standard fare for a centrally-planned economy. Also standard
     is that it doesn't work without substantial subsidies. Question in
     Venezuela always is how long can they afford to keep ramping up the
     subsidies?

     On 7/20/11 11:21 AM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

       he's told us this before -- short version is that chavez has some of
       the ideologes in charge of where things go, so they want to put
       certain capital-intensive pieces of the infra in poorer areas despite
       the fact that it makes no sense for the energy complex (nor is there
       any local labor pool who could work the facilities)

       its one of the things the source is particularly disgusted by

       On 7/20/11 9:45 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

         Will ask.

         On 7/20/11 10:40 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

           why do they want to have the upgraders away from the coast? what's
           the benefit?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: "Benjamin Preisler" &lt;ben.preisler@stratfor.com&gt;
           To: alpha@stratfor.com
           Sent: Wednesday, July 20, 2011 9:37:13 AM
           Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - VZ02 - More background/explanation on
           PDVSA's        gradual decline

           PUBLICATION: If desired
           SOURCE: VZ 02
           ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor source
           SOURCE DESCRIPTION: (Cuban) American oil specialist with extensive
           VZ and Russia experience
           SOURCE  Reliability :  B
           ITEM CREDIBILITY:  2
           DISTRO: Alpha
           SOURCE HANDLER: Karen/Peter

           Today, the crude is shipped to the coast by blending with naphta
           or light crude. The upgraders are located near the coast. PDVSA
           has a cockamamie plan, which makes little sense, to put the
           upgraders away from the coast, and send the upgraded (or
           synthetic) crude blend to the coast. This is a lousy option driven
           by their desire to have industrial developments in the middle of
           nowhere. I doubt they can pull it off, the guys making the
           decision don't understand how much money they are throwing away,
           plus it may not be feasible because the pressure vessels used in
           an upgrader are huge, and they usually require marine transport -
           but the sites picked by PDVSA are not reachable by reasonably
           sized transport vessels.

           I'm not aware of any real work being done to build the new
           upgraders. Nor is there anything being done to develop the natural
           gas production needed as upgrader fuel as well as to make the
           hydrogen the upgrader needs to stabilize the syncrude. The
           hydrogen issue is important because the plant is also fairly
           complex, and usually one plant is built to feed two or more
           upgraders.

           So the key focus to see if they are doing anything for real is the
           natural gas development. Without this, they have to use light oil
           to blend with the extra heavy from the Oil Belt. There are schemes
           to bring in light crude since they are running out of light, for
           example Galeota Blend from Trinidad. Also they can buy naphta in
           the international market and bring it in to blend. But this
           requires tanks and pumps and so on.

           It may be that a couple of foreign outfits are preparing to
           produce say 50,000 BOPD each, which they'll blend. But I keep
           being told by my contacts that production is falling in the
           current developments of heavy crude, so the new production coming
           in from the likes of Chevron and the Chinese may be needed just to
           fill in the holes.

           I think it'll be up to you guys to predict a supply shock if there
           is to be one - I'm only saying the current decline will continue,
           and they need to run a lot harder just to keep it from declining. 
           This means that, if the "new projects" announced by Ramirez, such
           as the Chinese, Chevron and ENI ventures do move ahead, they'll
           just keep production from dropping very fast - at best it'll be
           level.  But I keep hearing from friends there's very little real
           activity.

           I have friends inside PDVSA who tell me they spend a lot of time
           on holiday. One of them, who is a very smart young man, tells me
           he may lose his job because he's not adhering to the red party
           line.  I am no longer living in Venezuela, so I'm not inside to
           hear people speak openly - they have to write to me or I hear
           second hand accounts  - but the key is that nobody reports real
           activity to engineer anything serious - for example new pipelines,
           new upgraders. And this means the "new" production is at best
           intended to plug the gap caused by ongoing decline in existing
           areas. I hear the old Total area, Sincor, is now suffering from a
           serious shortfall in production due to water influx. So they got a
           serious problem there. I think I wrote to you guys about this a
           while back.

           In conclusion, what I see is continued erosion of existing
           production capacity, new projects, if they come in, may plug the
           holes for a bit - but I don't see production rebounding, most
           likely it'll continue falling. As long as prices are high, they
           may be able to barely get by. But the moment the Lybian mess gets
           fixed, prices ought to drop, and then they'll have a serious
           problem. Watch what they do about gasoline prices - if they start
           making noise about prices being too low (I mean the internal
           gasoline price), then they'll be really hurting.

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19
 currently in Greece: +30 697 1627467
</description>
    <date>2011-07-20 17:44:37</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-10 21:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/93089_re-alpha-insight-vz02-more-background-explanation-on-pdvsa-s.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>zeihan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>93359</id>
    <title>Re: Statfor
</title>
    <description>   David, thanks so much for the introduction and for a lovely dinner last
   night.
   Mr. Tukel, I would love to meet with you if you have some time this week.
   As David mentioned, I've been talking to politicians, businessmen,
   journalists, etc from across the political spectrum. I'm positive I could
   learn a great deal from you.
   Please let me know if you are available to meet Thurs evening or Friday
   morning/early afternoon.
   Look forward to your reply,
   Reva Bhalla
   Director of Analysis
   STRATFOR
   + 1 (512) 699-8385 (mobile)
   Sent from my iPhone
   On Mar 10, 2010, at 11:01 AM, David Judson &lt;david.judson@tdn.com.tr&gt;
   wrote:

     Haluk:

      

     This will introduce you to Reva Bhalla, the director of analysis for
     Stratfor, the private intelligence company you may have heard of. She is
     based in Washington and is here this week, mostly meeting with Zaman
     folks and others who might offer insight into the GA 1/4len movement. I
     should emphasize, however, she is well aware of the realities. She has
     not yet been converted.

      

     Over dinner last night, we discussed many things, including various
     elements of the Dogan tax. I mentioned your work at TUSIAD, setting up
     the bureaus in DC, Brussels, Berlin and Beijing. She is in Ankara today,
     but will be back tomorrow and is in town through the weekend.

      

     If there is an opportunity for the two of you to share a cup of coffee,
     I think this would be a great idea. As I mentioned, Reva, Haluk now
     heads the communication arm of Dogan Holding.

      

     Best

      

      

     David Judson

     Genel YayA:+-n YAP:netmeni / Editor-In-Chief

     HA 1/4rriyet Daily News &amp; Economic Review

     (+90) 212 677 0195

      

      
</description>
    <date>2010-03-10 11:02:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-10 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/93359_re-statfor-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>htukel@tusiad.org</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>david.judson@tdn.com.tr</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>93903</id>
    <title>AW: Next Steps for TUSIAD-STRATFOR Oct. 6 event in Istanbul
</title>
    <description>   Dear Mrs. Bhalla,

    

   Thank you for the outline of the simulation and please find below a short
   version of the biography you asked for.

    

   I am looking forward to hear from you again,

    

   Kind regards, Gu:nter Seufert

    

    

   Dr. Gu:nter Seufert is a senior researcher with the German Institute for
   International and Security Affairs in Berlin, where he focuses on
   political developments in Turkey and the Cyprus conflict. For several
   years he was based in Istanbul working as a correspondent for German,
   Swiss and Austrian newspapers. Additionally he carried out studies on
   societal, economic and political developments in Turkey. He also taught as
   Visiting Associate Professor in the Department for Turkish and Middle
   Eastern Studies at the University of Cyprus in Nicosia.

    

    

   Dr. Gu:nter Seufert

   SWP Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
   Deutsches Institut fu:r Internationale Politik und Sicherheit

   Ludwigkirchplatz 3 - 4

   10719 Berlin

   Telefon: +49 30 88007-276

   Fax:      +49 30 88007-100

   e-mail: guenter.seufert@swp-berlin.org

   www.swp-berlin.org

    

    

   Von: Reva Bhalla [mailto:bhalla@stratfor.com]
   Gesendet: Donnerstag, 7. Juli 2011 19:07
   An: Seufert, Guenter
   Betreff: Next Steps for TUSIAD-STRATFOR Oct. 6 event in Istanbul

    

   Dear Mr. Seufert,
    
   We are very excited to have you join STRATFOR and TUSIAD in commemorating
   TUSIAD's 40th anniverary this fall in Istanbul! We are still about three
   months away from the Oct. 6 event, but I wanted to provide a bit more
   information on the simulation itself so you know what to expect.
    
   As the past several years can attest, Turkey is a dynamic country with
   rising influence in the Middle East, Europe and Caucasus regions. In each
   of these areas, energy security plays a vital role in the geopolitics of
   the countries in question. The purpose of this simulation is to look
   forward into the next decade and explore the challenges and opportunities
   Turkey and its neighbors could encounter in pursuing their energy
   interests abroad.

   The main event will consist of a simulation (televised in Turkey) that
   will play out over a 2012-2022 timeframe. The simulation will be broken
   into two sessions (one in the morning and one in the afternoon of Oct. 6,)
   with the first focusing on the Middle East and the second focusing on
   Europe and the Caucasus region. The sessions will include participants
   from Turkey, the United States, Russia, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan,
   Georgia, Iraq and Iran (one representative per country.) As a
   representative of Germany, you will be asked to speak on behalf of your
   country in an open and direct dialogue. The moderator will present
   realistic scenarios throughout the session to which each country
   representative will respond with a move. Examples of a move could include
   anything from funding/building pipelines through certain regions, shifting
   energy suppliers, requesting aid, etc. Countries can either work together
   or alone in pursuing their respective interests during the simulation.

   The good news is that there will be very minimal preparation required for
   your part. The simulation will be live and interactive, thereby precluding
   any need for prepared speeches. In early September, STRATFOR will
   distribute a brief for all the participating countries that will allow you
   to familiarize yourself with the energy politics of each country. Prior to
   the event, you will also have the first `trigger' for the simulation
   beginning in the year 2012 that will allow you to plan your first move.
   From there, the simulation takes on a life of its own as the moderator
   guides the discussion based on each participant's move. The simulation
   will be broken up into two-year intervals over the decade, allowing each
   participant to make at least one move per two-year-interval. I will walk
   each of you through a mock scenario closer to the event so everyone if
   clear on how the simulation is to play out.

   Next Steps:

   1.  Your contact information has been submitted to a TUSIAD
   representative, who will be managing your flight and hotel accommodations
   for the event. 

   2.  By July 14, please send me your biography. For marketing purposes, we
   would like to keep each bio limited to a single, yet substantial
   paragraph.

   3.  In early September, you will receive an information packet with the
   political energy briefs for each country, the bios of each participant and
   the finalized agenda for the event.
   If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach me by phone or
   email. I am very much looking forward to working with you in the lead-up
   to this event!
    
   All my best,

   Reva

   Reva Bhalla
   Director of Analysis
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
   +1 512.699.8385 (mobile)
</description>
    <date>2011-07-21 09:17:49</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-20 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/93903_aw-next-steps-for-tusiad-stratfor-oct-6-event-in-istanbul-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Guenter.Seufert@swp-berlin.org</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>94087</id>
    <title>[alpha] Fw: Oslo
</title>
    <description>   Trapwire

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:18:40 -0500 (CDT)
   To: burton@stratfor.com&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Oslo
   99 percent sure. Some reports already confirming.
    
   From: burton@stratfor.com [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, July 22, 2011 12:15 PM
   To: Michael Maness
   Subject: Re: Oslo
    
   Think it was a bomb?

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:00:28 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Oslo

   My money's on a Libyan connection.

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 18:31:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/94087_-alpha-fw-oslo-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>94325</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Maybe, or he could be the Norwegian McVeigh.

   On 7/22/11 9:26 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     Mercenary
     Contract hit

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Hoor Jangda &lt;hoor.jangda@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:25:36 -0500 (CDT)
     To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
     the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
     height.

     On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

       Was the shooter a Libyan?

       On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:30:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/94325_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>94511</id>
    <title>[alpha] Oslo - Libyan Links
</title>
    <description>Been in meeting, had a vm from Trapwire, who reports previous Libyan
threats of retaliation. 

Libyans won't claim responsibility if this was state sponsored. 
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 19:17:15</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/94511_-alpha-oslo-libyan-links-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>94714</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Was the shooter a Libyan?

   On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:11:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/94714_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>95046</id>
    <title>[alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:10:31</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/95046_-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>95313</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   We don't know

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:12:04 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   Was the shooter a Libyan?

   On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:13:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/95313_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>95322</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
   height.

   On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

     Was the shooter a Libyan?

     On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:25:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/95322_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>hoor.jangda@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>96051</id>
    <title>Re: Arrived...
</title>
    <description>   ok, great. i'll see you at Cities -  919 19th street - at 1800. ciao ciao

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: srkip@canvasopedia.org
   To: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, July 27, 2011 3:54:52 PM
   Subject: Re: Arrived...

   I am up to start my last meeting here in NSC at 1700 and will go to meet
   you as soon as it finishes. Just let me know where will you be around
   1800, and can't wait to se you!
   Hugs
   Srdja

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Tue, 26 Jul 2011 15:08:02 -0500 (CDT)
   To: &lt;srkip@canvasopedia.org&gt;
   Subject: Re: Arrived...
   I just finished with my meetings for the day and am camping out a coffee
   shop near 18th and K.  we can go to this restaurant called Cities at 919
   19th street around the corner so that way we're not stuck in traffic. va
   bene?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: srkip@canvasopedia.org
   To: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 26, 2011 9:45:51 PM
   Subject: Re: Arrived...

   I will be around white house at that time as all of tourist and trouble
   makers but I can grab a cab and come wherever you suggest.
   S
   ------Original Message------
   From: Reva Bhalla
   To: Srdja Popovic
   Subject: Re: Arrived...
   Sent: Jul 25, 2011 6:56 PM

   Sounds good. I'll think of a place

   Sent from my iPhone

   On Jul 26, 2011, at 6:45 PM, srkip@canvasopedia.org wrote:

   &gt; Yes, but already overwehelmed for tonite, but glad to meet you tommorow
   after I meet politicians, let's say 1800, downtown?
   &gt; ------Original Message------
   &gt; From: Reva Bhalla
   &gt; To: Srdja Popovic
   &gt; Subject: Re: Arrived...
   &gt; Sent: Jul 25, 2011 6:15 PM
   &gt;
   &gt; I just arrived as well ... Back to dc insanity. Will you be downtown?
   &gt;
   &gt; Sent from my iPhone
   &gt;
   &gt; On Jul 26, 2011, at 5:07 PM, srkip@canvasopedia.org wrote:
   &gt;
   &gt;&gt; ..And jumped intop meetings already. Let's try to catch tommorow let's
   say between 18 and 19 if this works for you. Can't wait to see you!
   &gt;&gt; Srdja
   &gt;&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-06-18 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/96051_re-arrived-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>srkip@canvasopedia.org</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>96906</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Qaddaffi out-sources jobs, going back to Carlos the Jackal.

   Ck the OS about 3-4 weeks ago, about Qaddaffi hiring mercs.

   The suspect could be ex-French Foreign Legion.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:30:48 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   Maybe, or he could be the Norwegian McVeigh.

   On 7/22/11 9:26 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     Mercenary
     Contract hit

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Hoor Jangda &lt;hoor.jangda@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:25:36 -0500 (CDT)
     To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
     the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
     height.

     On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

       Was the shooter a Libyan?

       On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:34:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/96906_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>96957</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Once we do know, then we will know who was behind it.

   Until then, this is all conjecture and opinion.  And you know what
   opinions are like.

   On 7/22/11 9:13 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     We don't know

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:12:04 -0500 (CDT)
     To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
     Was the shooter a Libyan?

     On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:15:11</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/96957_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>97235</id>
    <title>[alpha] Fw: Oslo
</title>
    <description>   Trapwire

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:00:28 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Oslo

   My money's on a Libyan connection.

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 18:04:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/97235_-alpha-fw-oslo-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>97282</id>
    <title>Re: George, look at this: INSIGHT - TURKEY - Davutoglu-IK spat andother issues
</title>
    <description>   This is really good stuff. I'd like to meet the head of seta in dc to talk
   visegrad when I'm up on the 12th and around that. . Could you make sure
   that he gets my piece. Also is there any comments on tusiad? Kalin fight
   is that d believes kalin was maneuvering for his spot which he was.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Tue, 26 Jul 2011 20:40:52 -0500 (CDT)
   To: &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;
   Subject: George, look at this: INSIGHT - TURKEY - Davutoglu-IK spat and
   other issues
   thought you might be interested in the bit about the spat between Ibrahim
   Kalin and Davutoglu

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "watchofficer" &lt;watchofficer@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 26, 2011 4:19:46 PM
   Subject: INSIGHT - TURKEY - Davutoglu-IK spat and other issues

   PUBLICATION: background
   ATTRIBUTION: n/a
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Nuh Yilmaz, transitioning from head of SETA (main AKP
   think tank) in DC
   Reliability : B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

   I stopped by SETA's office this afternoon to visit with the director and
   wish him well before he returns to Turkey next week. Nuh is very close to
   Davutoglu and is his student (practically worships him,) and is looking
   out for his political future. He's leaving the SETA DC office to return to
   Istanbul where he'll be the main liaison for Al Jazeera Turkish, which is
   starting soon. As Emre brought up in an earlier discussion, AKP is nervous
   about having al Jazeera operate in Turkey. Nuh expressed in so many words
   that he'll be keeping a close eye on them. At the same time he's heading
   up a new istanbul-focused branch for SETA to have more global reach - will
   be spending a lot more effort in Europe and Central Asia to start off and
   they want to learn from stratfor on how to do real analysis.

   Interesting story - Ibrahim Kalin, Erdogan's chief advisor, gave an
   interview to Haaretz last week in which he gave a softer stance on AKP's
   demands on israel for the flotilla apology.  This is the link -
   http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/turkey-set-on-fully-mending-ties-with-israel-says-erdogan-s-aide-1.374331. 
   I personally dont see Kalin as detracting that far at all from the
   official policy, but apparently this caused a shit storm in Ankara between
   Kalin and Davutoglu, who claimed that Kalin went off the reservation.
   Kalin claimed he was taken out of context by the Haaretz reporter. Nuh
   claims the issue is settled now and was visibly nervous that he mentioned
   it. The spat is interesting though in terms of keeping track of AKP's
   power players.

   I met the new DC SETA director, who is a quiet man, doesn't let on much,
   but always nods with a very knowing smile.  He's older, seems a lot more
   experienced. Don't have a full read on him yet, but plan to meet with him
   one-on-one. When I met him, i was in their map room with Nuh explaining
   the development of Visegrad analysis and where Turkey potentially would
   fit in that. The new director was extremely interested in our analysis of
   the issue.

   There seems to be strong interest by AKP to get the military up to speed
   and modernized. They feel ridiculous that iran is sailing its navy all
   over the place and their own military has been out of the game for so
   long. When we were talking about US needing to lean on Turkey more in the
   region, and how it's in the US interest to help Turkey modernize its
   military, he seemed hopeful, but still untrusting ... i keep getting the
   impression from any Turks i interact with that they're still skeptical if
   the US will get along with them. Turkey keeps blaming US for pushing them
   on Libya, Syria, etc. (pretty lame excuse, if you ask me.) This will take
   time to develop.

   Nuh expressed how Turkey is increasingly coming to terms with hard power.
   They are still being cautious though. That's what Davutoglu's trip to Iran
   was about. Things were becoming very tense between Turkey and Iran over
   Syria and Davutoglu reached an understanding with the Iranian regime.
   Since then, they've backed off the syrians more.  I mentioned to him how
   the Saudis don't seem too impressed with Turkish influenc ein the region
   so far and in playing a balancing role against Iran. he laughed and said
   'i can't stand the Saudis. At least the Persians are smart.' He said that
   the Saudis policies in Syria and Lebanon were not helpful. they turn
   everything sectarian and exacerbate issues with Iran. He expressed a view
   that a lot of Turks will express, about how Turkey has a more
   sophisticated way of doing things while the Saudis are barbarians in
   dealing with this kind of stuff.
</description>
    <date>2011-07-27 03:55:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-07 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/97282_re-george-look-at-this-insight-turkey-davutoglu-ik-spat.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>97491</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Libyans also pay foreign mercenaries.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:12:04 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   Was the shooter a Libyan?

   On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:13:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/97491_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>97505</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Mercenary
   Contract hit

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Hoor Jangda &lt;hoor.jangda@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:25:36 -0500 (CDT)
   To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
   height.

   On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

     Was the shooter a Libyan?

     On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:26:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/97505_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>97882</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] sourcing insight
</title>
    <description>   I think you should make responsiveness a separate category. Like we do
   with our red, orange, yellow classifications during source list reviews.
   That is responsiveness/accessibility, and it is distinct from
   reliability. 
   From: Jennifer Richmond &lt;richmond@stratfor.com&gt;
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2011 15:05:28 -0500
   To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] sourcing insight
   As Stick said earlier, you can have a reliable source that is highly
   responsive that sometimes sends crap.  Item credibility is the place where
   you assess the information, and this changes from insight to insight. 
   Reliability is more about source responsiveness.  That said, and as Stick
   notes, reliability also speaks to the overall source's access to
   information as well as dependability.  In part some of this should also be
   addressed in the source description.

   We'll be fleshing these out a bit more in the next few weeks, and all
   suggestions are welcomed.

   On 7/29/11 2:51 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     My understanding of source reliability has always been the contact's
     personal reliability as a person who can provide accurate information.
     On 7/29/11 2:54 PM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

       Sending to the list since these are good questions.  My responses in
       red.

       On 7/29/11 1:48 PM, Allison Fedirka wrote:

         I have 2 questions on this item.
         SOURCE RELIABILITY: A-F, A being the best and F being the worst.
          this
         grades the turnaround time of this source in responding to requests

         1) If this is based solely on turn around time, do we have company
         standards for the letters.  Like A = a couple of hours, D = a couple
         of weeks, etc?  We do need to better identify what each letter
         means.  In the meantime, in my book A=within 24 hours, B=48 hours,
         C=a couple of days, D=over a week, F=lucky if we get a response
         2) Also I previously thought this item reflected both reliability in
         turn around time and also reliability to give good information.  So
         like if someone was obviously anti-chavez or exaggerates a lot, I
         would bump them down a bit since the insight should be taken with a
         grain of salt.  How do you want us to inform others of potential
         bias or questionable material?  In the description section? It is
         mainly addresses their reliability to respond.  ITEM CREDIBILITY is
         the place where we code the information.  In most cases this changes
         from insight to insight whereas SOURCE RELIABILITY is a little more
         static.  Some sources know nothing about politics but give excellent
         info on econ.  So, credibilty changes frequently even with the same
         source and one of the reasons why we need to keep up with the entire
         ID tags when sending in insight.  As to the last question, I usually
         make a note of their bias for a particular insight in the
         credibility section.  In the description section you can write out
         their personal biases - e.g. the dude only hangs with the wealthy so
         this insight is likely to be skewed towards elite perceptions, or
         something like that. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: "Jennifer Richmond" &lt;richmond@stratfor.com&gt;
         To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
         Sent: Friday, July 29, 2011 1:41:39 PM
         Subject: [alpha] sourcing insight

         We've gotten lazy on insight source IDs again.  Not only do you need
         to
         put the source code in the subject line, but all of these categories
         need to be filled out for every single insight sent to the list.

         SOURCE: code
         ATTRIBUTION: this is what we should say if we use this info in a
         publication, e.g. STRATFOR source/source in the medical
         industry/source
         on the ground, etc
         SOURCE DESCRIPTION: this is where we put the more concrete details
         of
         the source for our internal consumption so we can better understand
         the
         source's background and ability to make the assessments in the
         insight
         PUBLICATION: Yes or no.  If you put yes it doesn't mean that we will
         publish it, but only that we can publish it.
         SOURCE RELIABILITY: A-F, A being the best and F being the worst.
          this
         grades the turnaround time of this source in responding to requests
         ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1-10, 1 being the best and 10 being the worst (we
         may
         change the range here in the future).  this changes a lot based on
         the
         info provided.  1 is "you can take this to the bank" and 10 would be
         an
         example of maybe - "this is a totally ridiculous rumor but something
         that is spreading on the ground"
         SPECIAL HANDLING: often this is "none" but it may be something like,
         "if
         you use this we need to be sure not to mention the part about XXX in
         the
         publication" or any other special notes
         SOURCE HANDLER: the person who can take follow-up questions and
         communicate with the source

         If you have any questions, concerns or suggestions, let me know.
          I'll
         be back in the office next Tues so if you want to discuss this
         process
         in person we can do so soon.  In the meantime, remember that every
         piece
         of insight needs this ENTIRE ID unless it is just something that you
         picked up off the ground from a source that you will likely not hear
         from again.  Even then, you should fill out the entire ID and in the
         SOURCE field simply say - n/a with a description on why we are not
         coding them.

         Jen
         PS: Also remember that is something is highly sensitive to send
         directly
         - not thru a WO - to the "secure" list.  Secure list insights still
         need
         the above ID tags.

         --
         Jennifer Richmond
         STRATFOR
         China Director
         Director of International Projects
         (512) 422-9335
         richmond@stratfor.com
         www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.comwww.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.comwww.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-29 22:08:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/97882_re-alpha-sourcing-insight-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>97900</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] sourcing insight
</title>
    <description>   Ok, good question.

   The secure list is not supposed to have anyone overseas on it.  (And as a
   side note, if you are traveling overseas you need to get yourself off this
   list while out of the country.)  We have many WOs overseas and so when we
   send something to secure it is just one more way we are trying to protect
   sourcing by not having it sent over international wires (yes, of course,
   there are many ways that foreigners can access any insight sent from
   anywhere at anytime, but it is somewhat more secure when we email only
   within CONUS).  So either a source or insight that is highly sensitive
   needs to go to the secure list only, and that means that we send it in
   ourselves because the overseas WOs won't be able to pick it up.

   Alpha goes to analysts/writers (and the few others selected on this list)
   and not ADPs or Interns, including to analysts/writers overseas.

   On 7/29/11 1:50 PM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

     your last line in the P.S.... said to send things directly to secure...
     I wanted to know if that meant only to secure or to alpha too.
     I think there is still some confusion over which list is which.
     On 7/29/11 1:47 PM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

       I don't understand your question.  This applies to both lists.  All
       sources need IDs (as mentioned in my PS - does that answer your
       question?).

       As to the question of sending from BBs, I definitely understand that
       issue.  When you return to your computer, please reply to the insight
       sent out with the full coding.  We need this info to really track
       insight and any changes over time.

       On 7/29/11 1:45 PM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

         secure or alpha?

         On 7/29/11 1:41 PM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

 We've gotten lazy on insight source IDs again.  Not only do you need to
 put the source code in the subject line, but all of these categories
 need to be filled out for every single insight sent to the list.

 SOURCE: code
 ATTRIBUTION: this is what we should say if we use this info in a
 publication, e.g. STRATFOR source/source in the medical industry/source
 on the ground, etc
 SOURCE DESCRIPTION: this is where we put the more concrete details of
 the source for our internal consumption so we can better understand the
 source's background and ability to make the assessments in the insight
 PUBLICATION: Yes or no.  If you put yes it doesn't mean that we will
 publish it, but only that we can publish it.
 SOURCE RELIABILITY: A-F, A being the best and F being the worst.  this
 grades the turnaround time of this source in responding to requests
 ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1-10, 1 being the best and 10 being the worst (we may
 change the range here in the future).  this changes a lot based on the
 info provided.  1 is "you can take this to the bank" and 10 would be an
 example of maybe - "this is a totally ridiculous rumor but something
 that is spreading on the ground"
 SPECIAL HANDLING: often this is "none" but it may be something like, "if
 you use this we need to be sure not to mention the part about XXX in the
 publication" or any other special notes
 SOURCE HANDLER: the person who can take follow-up questions and
 communicate with the source

 If you have any questions, concerns or suggestions, let me know.  I'll
 be back in the office next Tues so if you want to discuss this process
 in person we can do so soon.  In the meantime, remember that every piece
 of insight needs this ENTIRE ID unless it is just something that you
 picked up off the ground from a source that you will likely not hear
 from again.  Even then, you should fill out the entire ID and in the
 SOURCE field simply say - n/a with a description on why we are not
 coding them.

 Jen
 PS: Also remember that is something is highly sensitive to send directly
 - not thru a WO - to the "secure" list.  Secure list insights still need
 the above ID tags.


         --
         Lauren Goodrich
         Senior Eurasia Analyst
         STRATFOR
         T: 512.744.4311
         F: 512.744.4334
         lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
         www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com


     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     STRATFOR
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-29 20:59:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/97900_re-alpha-sourcing-insight-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>97918</id>
    <title>[alpha] TrapWire on DC Probes
</title>
    <description>   (Between you and me, there appears to be a serious issue with probing
   operations going on in/around DC right now -- particularly placement of
   shopping bags and luggage in Red Zones).
</description>
    <date>2011-07-29 18:16:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/97918_-alpha-trapwire-on-dc-probes-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>97948</id>
    <title>[alpha] (more) TrapWire on DC Probes
</title>
    <description>   The probes on mass transportation and/or tourist areas? 

   -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Iconic targets and Fed institutions are leading list right now, followed
   closely by mass trans.
</description>
    <date>2011-07-29 19:14:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/97948_-alpha-more-trapwire-on-dc-probes-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>98475</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - Turkey - More on Gulen movement
</title>
    <description>   another example of your loyalty is tested in the recruitment process is
   when they decision comes for your university placement. THey will often
   test you to see if you will place the movement before your family. For
   example, you may have your whole family in Istanbul, but they will tell
   you to go to Ankara university. WHen you are away from home, the Gulenists
   will provide housing and take care of you. It allows them to strengthen
   their control over you and earn your loyalty by separating the target from
   the family.
   On Mar 21, 2010, at 8:35 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     PUBLICATION: for Turkey series
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  former Gulenist
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY:  B
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
     SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:  analysts
     SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
     Source was a hardcore Gulenist for 10 years and then defected from the
     movement when he came to the US several years back. He was recruited
     when he was a high school student and was raised in the movement to
     focus on military penetration.Since he knows a great deal about the
     Gulen and sensitive military matters, the movement has been careful not
     to alienate him. They have people who check up on him (similar to how I
     now have people checking up on me) and they have a mutually dependent
     relationship where they use each other for information They want to be
     careful that he doesn't write any big criticism against them. The source
     wants to tell the inside story of Gulen but it's too risky for him. He's
     quite paranoid when I talk to him, but now that he's 'liberated' from
     the movement, he drinks wine and can loosen up after a while.
     (as a side note, in DC there are a couple Turkish restaurants that are
     well known, Levante's and Diwan. Levante's, I learned today, is owned by
     Kurds. My waiter was also from Diyarbakir. What i found that was
     interesting, and something I've noticed for a while, is that Turkish
     govt officials will not come to Levante's usually because it's well
     known that it's owned by Kurds. Just another example of polarization)
     Fethullah Gulen is not as active as he used to be in the movement. He
     gets sick more frequently (he has diabetes). They now have a council of
     elders, 12 'wise men'. Most of them are in the US, close to Fethullah.
     They meet regularly and make decisions on the big issues affecting the
     movement.
     The Gulenist model is obviously very successful. Even US diplomats are
     gradually becoming more influenced. They say the Kemalist model has been
     unsuccessful in bringing Turkey closer to the West, but the Gulen
     through their business and diplomatic efforts have been successful.
     The source has also tried like us to acquire a database of the Gulenist
     schools. They give him the exact same answer they give us -- that the
     education effort isn't centralized and so they don't have a good
     database. Source agrees that that is total BS.The schools are central to
     the movement's efforts. They keep this list close hold.
     The source described for me how the Gulenist recruitment process works.
     In Turkey, preparing for your university exam is a huge deal (Emre has
     explained this to me in a lot of detail). You essentially have to sign
     away a couple years of your life to study for this. The Gulen schools
     are known to provide the best preparation, offer the best resources,
     etc. A lot of students will attend them, regardless of their
     political/religious affiliation. Yout start out going a couple times a
     week, then 3 times a week, then every day of the week by the time you're
     done. They make it a gradual process and earn your trust. The movement
     will then take the brightest students from the class and will focus on
     them. THe mentor for each student will change every year. They'll test
     your loyalty by calling you late in the evening, early on a Saturday
     morning, etc. and ask you to attend something or perform some task. The
     task doesn't really matter at the beginning. What they want to see is if
     you'll obey them and respond to their beck and call. This is all a
     process to test their loyalty. Then, when they get the results for their
     university exams, they'll place the top students in the military
     academy. From there, they position themselves to influence the
     institution. Source estimates that roughly 30% of the military may be
     influence/linked to Gulen currently.  They are trained from a very early
     age how to interact with military personnel, learn the ranks, act
     secular, etc. The source was involved in this process. When they are
     assimilating in the military, they drink, go out with girls, etc., all
     while remaining loyal to the movement.  Once you are placed in a
     strategic institution, whether it be the military, police judiciary,
     media firm, etc., you will be handled by what's the equivalent of a case
     officer. They are trained on how to communicate with their handlers in
     secret and receive order. Again, this is run very much like a
     professional intelligence organization.
     In the police force, the Gulenists have a lot more room to maneuver. All
     of these efforts kicked of in the early 1980s, but in the 1990s is when
     Gulen really gained traction. In the police, they're not as strict as
     the military when it comes to background checks. So, for example, it
     won't matter much if you go to mosque, have a wife who wears the
     headscarf, etc. The Gulenists are extremely strong in the police and
      may by now control a majority of the force by the source's estimate.
     As far as funding, for years, the Gulenists were very non-transparent.
     He described how each city in Turkey is responsible for certain
     countries. So, the Gulen in Ankara for example, are in charge of
     Azerbaijan, Turkemnistan, etc. The businessmen in that Turkish city are
     then responsible for funding initiatives in those countries. There were
     literally suitcases of cash being transferred to these countries, but
     later, through organizations like Tuskon, they've legitimized the
     process a lot more. 
</description>
    <date>2010-03-22 02:38:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-16 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/98475_re-insight-turkey-more-on-gulen-movement-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>98795</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT - PNG - New PM - via CN65
</title>
    <description>   *I think they probably meant to type 07/31 but will double check with
   source.

   SOURCE: via CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

     Png has a new PM Peter O'Neil, opposition will form new gov 77/31
      

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19
</description>
    <date>2011-08-02 13:42:21</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/98795_-alpha-insight-png-new-pm-via-cn65-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ben.preisler@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>98966</id>
    <title>Re: Info - Another MOSSAD Intelligence Operation  ** internal useonly - pls do not forward **
</title>
    <description>   Nocs who are simply given a business cover are easy to spot. The
   develop$emt of a noc that is effective depends on developing a cover that
   can't be penetrated because it is who the person is. This takes many years
   and infinite patience. The current practice merely increases the risk to
   the agent without doing anything for effectiveness. Being a noc is not
   about bureaucratic classification or superficial identity is a way of
   life. Very few people have the appetite or psychological motivation for
   the effective abandonment of their own personalities and few handlers can
   stand the stress of managing deep cover.

   Most american companies are suspecred of housing cia agents as we are. So
   that's no cover at all. Having someone become an executive of a foreign
   comppany and be a foreign national is what is essential. This requires the
   use of first generation immigrants as the chinese do and as the the united
   states does intermittently. The problem is that the security people set
   standards that people can't possinly meet. Some dci waive these standards
   and some tighten them.

   When they are tightened you get mormons working for american accounting
   firms trying to do intelligence in beijing. The trick is for the us to
   employ first or second generation chinese at an early early age, craft the
   needed cover meticulously, and have them live in china, speaking native
   chinese, marrying chinese spouses and growting that way. It requires the
   fbi to hire hundreds of first generation chinerse to meet and double
   chinese operatives.

   This is certainly some the united states has done intermittently in the
   past, but never the fbi. The same applies to all nationalities.

   The greatest advantage the unitied states has in the intelligence was is
   its immigrant population. That's where you develop nocs. During oss days
   these were the ones who were the effectives, not the yale pipe smokers.

   If you want to be a spy it helps not to look like one. The american noc
   working in tashkent for say hewlett packard can be spotted immediately by
   the russian counter intelligence guy planted in hp. The russian is an
   american citizen, immigrant and a graduate of wharton with an american
   wife and kids. He sits at his desk does great work and watches. The
   american noc went to byu, and spends less time on the job than an
   ambitious employee should. He is also the guy who spends his time in the
   bar chatting up junior host government employees instead of the girls. He
   sticks out like a sore thumb and figured out in a few weeks.

   Slipping a noc into a foreign country is hard. You start with a native and
   then work like crazy. Everything else is pseudo intelligence.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 25 Mar 2010 17:35:35 -0500
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: 'Secure List'&lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Info - Another MOSSAD Intelligence Operation ** internal use
   only - pls do not forward **
   Well, new NCS employees are primarily NOCs now.  They gotta have some sort
   of business cover, even if they are all fake businesses (I have no idea
   bout the latteR).

   Fred Burton wrote:

     Chinese are a given, the Americans are way too concerned about getting
     caught. 
      
     The CIA can only infiltrate an American company with witting knowledge
     of the American company. 
      
     Usually the CEO and Corporate Legal counsel are the only ones who
     know.   For the most part, the CIA gets the bums rush when they ask
     Fortune 50's. 
      
     Times are different in America.  We are no longer a patriotic nation. 
     Shareholders rule.  SEC rules.  DOJ concerns.  etc. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Sean Noonan [mailto:sean.noonan@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Thursday, March 25, 2010 5:30 PM
     To: Fred Burton
     Cc: 'Secure List'
     Subject: Re: Info - Another MOSSAD Intelligence Operation ** internal
     use only - pls do not forward **
     And why wouldn't the Chinese (especially) or Americans doing this too?

     Fred Burton wrote:

       Business intelligence. 
        
       There is a MOSSAD operative under business cover stealing other
       companies secrets from this group. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Sean Noonan [mailto:sean.noonan@stratfor.com]
       Sent: Thursday, March 25, 2010 5:27 PM
       To: Fred Burton
       Cc: 'Secure List'
       Subject: Re: Info - Another MOSSAD Intelligence Operation ** internal
       use only - pls do not forward **
       I'll look into this a little more, but I would find it hard to believe
       that a number of other agencies haven't also infiltrated it. 

       Fred Burton wrote:

         http://www.scip.org/
          
         According to the FBI (not for attribution) the MOSSAD has
         infiltrated this organziation.   
          

                                   About SCIP

         The Society of Competitive Intelligence Professionals (SCIP) is a
         global nonprofit membership organization for everyone involved in
         creating and managing business knowledge. Our mission is to enhance
         the success of our members through leadership, education, advocacy,
         and networking.

         Specifically, SCIP provides education and networking opportunities
         for business professionals working in the rapidly growing field of
         competitive intelligence (the legal and ethical collection and
         analysis of information regarding the capabilities, vulnerabilities,
         and intentions of business competitors). Many SCIP members have
         backgrounds in market research, strategic analysis, or science and
         technology.

         Established in 1986, today SCIP has chapters around the world, with
         individual members in nations around the globe. In addition, SCIP
         has alliance partnerships with independent affiliate organizations
         in many countries.

 --
 Sean Noonan
 ADP- Tactical Intelligence
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

  

 --
 Sean Noonan
 ADP- Tactical Intelligence
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

  

 --
 Sean Noonan
 ADP- Tactical Intelligence
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-03-26 01:06:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/98966_re-info-another-mossad-intelligence-operation-internal.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>99602</id>
    <title>Re: George, look at this: INSIGHT - TURKEY - Davutoglu-IK spat
 andother issues
</title>
    <description>   Yes, I'm going to make sure that you both meet. It would also be good if
   we could send them invitations to attend the event.  Do you think Tusiad
   will give us some invitations to distribute to people there?  I'd also
   like people like the Brazilian ambo to Turkey (who you met last time and
   who I met in Turkey,) Faruk and others to get an invite

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "George Friedman" &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;
   To: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 26, 2011 8:55:23 PM
   Subject: Re: George, look at this: INSIGHT - TURKEY - Davutoglu-IK spat
   andother issues

   This is really good stuff. I'd like to meet the head of seta in dc to talk
   visegrad when I'm up on the 12th and around that. . Could you make sure
   that he gets my piece. Also is there any comments on tusiad? Kalin fight
   is that d believes kalin was maneuvering for his spot which he was.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Tue, 26 Jul 2011 20:40:52 -0500 (CDT)
   To: &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;
   Subject: George, look at this: INSIGHT - TURKEY - Davutoglu-IK spat and
   other issues
   thought you might be interested in the bit about the spat between Ibrahim
   Kalin and Davutoglu

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "watchofficer" &lt;watchofficer@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 26, 2011 4:19:46 PM
   Subject: INSIGHT - TURKEY - Davutoglu-IK spat and other issues

   PUBLICATION: background
   ATTRIBUTION: n/a
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Nuh Yilmaz, transitioning from head of SETA (main AKP
   think tank) in DC
   Reliability : B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

   I stopped by SETA's office this afternoon to visit with the director and
   wish him well before he returns to Turkey next week. Nuh is very close to
   Davutoglu and is his student (practically worships him,) and is looking
   out for his political future. He's leaving the SETA DC office to return to
   Istanbul where he'll be the main liaison for Al Jazeera Turkish, which is
   starting soon. As Emre brought up in an earlier discussion, AKP is nervous
   about having al Jazeera operate in Turkey. Nuh expressed in so many words
   that he'll be keeping a close eye on them. At the same time he's heading
   up a new istanbul-focused branch for SETA to have more global reach - will
   be spending a lot more effort in Europe and Central Asia to start off and
   they want to learn from stratfor on how to do real analysis.

   Interesting story - Ibrahim Kalin, Erdogan's chief advisor, gave an
   interview to Haaretz last week in which he gave a softer stance on AKP's
   demands on israel for the flotilla apology.  This is the link -
   http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/turkey-set-on-fully-mending-ties-with-israel-says-erdogan-s-aide-1.374331. 
   I personally dont see Kalin as detracting that far at all from the
   official policy, but apparently this caused a shit storm in Ankara between
   Kalin and Davutoglu, who claimed that Kalin went off the reservation.
   Kalin claimed he was taken out of context by the Haaretz reporter. Nuh
   claims the issue is settled now and was visibly nervous that he mentioned
   it. The spat is interesting though in terms of keeping track of AKP's
   power players.

   I met the new DC SETA director, who is a quiet man, doesn't let on much,
   but always nods with a very knowing smile.  He's older, seems a lot more
   experienced. Don't have a full read on him yet, but plan to meet with him
   one-on-one. When I met him, i was in their map room with Nuh explaining
   the development of Visegrad analysis and where Turkey potentially would
   fit in that. The new director was extremely interested in our analysis of
   the issue.

   There seems to be strong interest by AKP to get the military up to speed
   and modernized. They feel ridiculous that iran is sailing its navy all
   over the place and their own military has been out of the game for so
   long. When we were talking about US needing to lean on Turkey more in the
   region, and how it's in the US interest to help Turkey modernize its
   military, he seemed hopeful, but still untrusting ... i keep getting the
   impression from any Turks i interact with that they're still skeptical if
   the US will get along with them. Turkey keeps blaming US for pushing them
   on Libya, Syria, etc. (pretty lame excuse, if you ask me.) This will take
   time to develop.

   Nuh expressed how Turkey is increasingly coming to terms with hard power.
   They are still being cautious though. That's what Davutoglu's trip to Iran
   was about. Things were becoming very tense between Turkey and Iran over
   Syria and Davutoglu reached an understanding with the Iranian regime.
   Since then, they've backed off the syrians more.  I mentioned to him how
   the Saudis don't seem too impressed with Turkish influenc ein the region
   so far and in playing a balancing role against Iran. he laughed and said
   'i can't stand the Saudis. At least the Persians are smart.' He said that
   the Saudis policies in Syria and Lebanon were not helpful. they turn
   everything sectarian and exacerbate issues with Iran. He expressed a view
   that a lot of Turks will express, about how Turkey has a more
   sophisticated way of doing things while the Saudis are barbarians in
   dealing with this kind of stuff.
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-07 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/99602_re-george-look-at-this-insight-turkey-davutoglu-ik-spat.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>100009</id>
    <title>RE: FOR COMMENT: A BAILOUT FOR SPAIN, BUT NOT TODAY
</title>
    <description>    

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Robin Blackburn
   Sent: Wednesday, August 03, 2011 11:53 AM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: FOR COMMENT: A BAILOUT FOR SPAIN, BUT NOT TODAY

    

   Spain's Economy: Madrid Will Need a Bailout, But Not Today

    

   Teaser:

   The bond markets are punishing Spain unjustifiably, but the country's need
   for a bailout is not imminent.

    

   Summary:

   Borrowing costs for the Spanish government have skyrocketed in recent
   weeks. But while Spain's economy is no longer the paragon of growth it was
   in the 2000s, there is no reason to expect that a bailout is needed -- at
   least not immediately.

    

   Analysis:

    

   Spain's cost of borrowing has risen to levels not seen since the advent of
   the euro in 1999, sparking speculation that another European bailout is
   imminent. STRATFOR disagrees. While Spain will need a bailout from the
   European Union eventually, there is nothing occurring in the Spanish
   economy that justifies the current increase in the cost of borrowing. In
   fact, by most measures the Spaniards have instituted more draconian
   austerity measures than even the Greeks -- who are already on their second
   bailout.

    

   Driven in part by demographics, Spain experienced extraordinarily  robust
   economic growth during the last decade [stronger growth in late 80s and
   mid to late 90s, would say last few decades since that's  both when the
   demographic trend you highlight began to hit, and when the real gdp growth
   rates look strong.]. One of the largest sources of economic activity in a
   modern economy comes from private consumption, and the largest proportion
   of private consumption in any economy comes from people in their 20s and
   30s. These are the first-time homebuyers, car buyers and child rearers.
   Older workers buy things, too, and raise children, but not in the sudden
   volume that young workers do. In the 2000s Spain had a glut of people in
   that age group.

    

   Also in the 2000s, Spain enjoyed the cheap credit made possible by the
   eurozone. Mortgage and interest rates fell by a factor of three. A massive
   consuming demographic had access to historically low credit costs. The
   resulting growth was unprecedented in modern Spanish history [see above.
   Spain was growing at a real 5% clip in the late 80s. it was under 4% for
   all of the 2000s].

    

   However, two problems are beginning to surface. First, any time the costs
   of financing are cut by that much, credit is not always used as wisely as
   it could be [weakly worded. Would rephrase: "cheap credit, especially when
   financing costs decline quickly, tends to breed malinvestment." As a
   counterexample to your phrasing: the US has had some of the cheapest
   credit on record but consumer credit stocks have declined.]. Cheap credit
   encouraged state spending as well as private consumption, and so Spain has
   relatively high debt in both the public and private sectors. Spain's
   public sector national debt is about 60 percent of gross domestic product,
   about half of which has been financed by parties outside of Spain. [this
   whole para is weakly structured. First we allude to malinvestment, then we
   address debt stock without talking about its structure, vaguely asserting
   that 60 pc of gdp is high (it isn't). then to complicate further we bring
   up external debt, but provide no explanation as to why that's a problem.
   Would rewrite entirely. What we need here is a brief mention and a link on
   how the private sector leveraged up to invest in construction/housing.]

    

   Second, Spain's demographic profile is not what it was 10 years ago [yeah
   but all it did was shift from mid-20s to late 40s to late-20s to
   early-50s. that is still a really positive looking profile. Very
   productive and mostly pre-retirement.]. The bulk of the population is no
   longer in its 20s and 30s, and the current and upcoming spending
   generation is about half the size of the population cohort they are
   replacing. Consumption and economic growth in the next decade cannot hope
   to compete with the consumption and growth of the past decade. [so the
   only real problem you point out really IS  the same as it was 10 years
   ago. Anyway a simple rewrite can fix this.]

    

    

   The combination of relatively high debt and falling consumption rates
   means the era of strong Spanish growth is over. A very aggressive budget
   control effort might get the debt under control before the last bursts of
   the 30-somethings' spending fades, but that would be unlikely. Barring
   that, the Spanish will need a bailout to fix the imbalance. But that is an
   issue for a time at least two years in the future -- not today. [time
   frame issue. Main driver of the problem cited here is demographic,
   something that will look virtually the same in  2 years]

    

    

    

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-08-03 19:30:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-04-01 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/100009_re-for-comment-a-bailout-for-spain-but-not-today-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kevin.stech@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>100230</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT - PNG - Update - CN65
</title>
    <description>    **If we care at all about writing on the PNG, this is unique insight that
   will be difficult to get elsewhere.  If we have a legit angle to write I
   would definitely do so and use this soon before it becomes common
   knowledge.

   SOURCE: CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources (also working with the PNG government on development
   projects)
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

   After a day and a half with my PNG chums, who were down for the Oxford
   dinner at the Sydney Opera House, I can now give you a summary of what
   happened in PNG.
   The then acting-PM, Sam Abal, and Foreign Minister, Don Polye, are both
   Engans (i.e. from Enga, a region in the Highlands).  Engans are
   notoriously fractious types.  Abal and Polye had a falling out, and it
   ripped apart the government.
   Everyone in the government got fed up with this, and it led to huge
   dissatisfaction.  On top of that, Abal moved to shift Peter O'Neill from
   the Treasury portfolio.  That was the catalyst for action.
   The other thing is that Somare has been absent from Parliament in
   Singapore getting medical treatment for more than 90 days.  They never got
   leave from Parliament, however, and this theoretically makes the PM's
   position vacant.
   A group of about four or five from the political class, led by one of our
   business associates (won't say who) helped put the numbers together for a
   change of government.  He aid the concern was to not just get a majority,
   but a thumping majority so the government would be able to move forward
   with confidence.
   The cabinet is being put together by the weekend.  The three candidates
   for Treasurer are Sir Puka Temu, Bart Philemon, and Sir Mekere Morauta.
    Word is that it with be either Puka or Mekere.  Mekere would be
   fantastic.  He is a former PM, has gravitas, and is very smart.
   Abal is going to the High Court claiming the motion of no confidence was
   unconstitutional. It won't make much difference.  O'Neill has the numbers
   to run the motion again if there is any problem with the proceedings in
   Parliament.  He will out in the end.
   Next item of business will be sorting out the status of Sir Michael
   Somare.
   I think there will be much more stability until next year's election, even
   if the PM is no cleaner than his predecessor.  That is a step in the right
   direction up there.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com


 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19
</description>
    <date>2011-08-04 14:04:27</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/100230_-alpha-insight-png-update-cn65-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ben.preisler@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>100500</id>
    <title>Additional request on bio
</title>
    <description>   Mr. Seufert,

   I hope this message finds you well!  Thank you for sending me your bio
   earlier.  Compared to the others, your bio ended up being quite brief. I
   was hoping to flesh it out a bit more, perhaps with some of your
   publications or any other relevant information you'd be interested in
   including. Would you mind sending me your CV or bullet points so I can
   expand on the paragraph you sent me? Alternatively, if you have a slightly
   longer bio already in hand, that would be great.

   This is what I have for you currently:

   GA*NTER SEUFERT (Germany)

    

   Dr. GA 1/4nter Seufert is a senior researcher with the German Institute
   for International and Security Affairs in Berlin, where he focuses on
   political developments in Turkey and the Cyprus conflict. For several
   years he was based in Istanbul working as a correspondent for German,
   Swiss and Austrian newspapers. Additionally he carried out studies on
   societal, economic and political developments in Turkey. He also taught as
   Visiting Associate Professor in the Department for Turkish and Middle
   Eastern Studies at the University of Cyprus in Nicosia.

   I understand there may have been a bit of a delay in the response by the
   Tusiad travel representative. I spoke with them this morning and have
   asked that they follow up with each participant as soon as possible to
   finalize the arrangements. Please let me know if you have any trouble.

   Thank you!

   All best,

   Reva

   Reva Bhalla
   Director of Analysis
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
   +1 512.699.8385 (mobile)

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Guenter Seufert" &lt;Guenter.Seufert@swp-berlin.org&gt;
   To: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, July 21, 2011 2:17:49 AM
   Subject: AW: Next Steps for TUSIAD-STRATFOR Oct. 6 event in Istanbul

   Dear Mrs. Bhalla,

    

   Thank you for the outline of the simulation and please find below a short
   version of the biography you asked for.

    

   I am looking forward to hear from you again,

    

   Kind regards, GA 1/4nter Seufert

    

    

   Dr. GA 1/4nter Seufert is a senior researcher with the German Institute
   for International and Security Affairs in Berlin, where he focuses on
   political developments in Turkey and the Cyprus conflict. For several
   years he was based in Istanbul working as a correspondent for German,
   Swiss and Austrian newspapers. Additionally he carried out studies on
   societal, economic and political developments in Turkey. He also taught as
   Visiting Associate Professor in the Department for Turkish and Middle
   Eastern Studies at the University of Cyprus in Nicosia.

    

    

   Dr. GA 1/4nter Seufert

   SWP Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
   Deutsches Institut fA 1/4r Internationale Politik und Sicherheit

   Ludwigkirchplatz 3 - 4

   10719 Berlin

   Telefon: +49 30 88007-276

   Fax:      +49 30 88007-100

   e-mail: guenter.seufert@swp-berlin.org

   www.swp-berlin.org

    

    

   Von: Reva Bhalla [mailto:bhalla@stratfor.com]
   Gesendet: Donnerstag, 7. Juli 2011 19:07
   An: Seufert, Guenter
   Betreff: Next Steps for TUSIAD-STRATFOR Oct. 6 event in Istanbul

    

   Dear Mr. Seufert,
    
   We are very excited to have you join STRATFOR and TUSIAD in commemorating
   TUSIAD's 40th anniverary this fall in Istanbul! We are still about three
   months away from the Oct. 6 event, but I wanted to provide a bit more
   information on the simulation itself so you know what to expect.
    
   As the past several years can attest, Turkey is a dynamic country with
   rising influence in the Middle East, Europe and Caucasus regions. In each
   of these areas, energy security plays a vital role in the geopolitics of
   the countries in question. The purpose of this simulation is to look
   forward into the next decade and explore the challenges and opportunities
   Turkey and its neighbors could encounter in pursuing their energy
   interests abroad.

   The main event will consist of a simulation (televised in Turkey) that
   will play out over a 2012-2022 timeframe. The simulation will be broken
   into two sessions (one in the morning and one in the afternoon of Oct. 6,)
   with the first focusing on the Middle East and the second focusing on
   Europe and the Caucasus region. The sessions will include participants
   from Turkey, the United States, Russia, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan,
   Georgia, Iraq and Iran (one representative per country.) As a
   representative of Germany, you will be asked to speak on behalf of your
   country in an open and direct dialogue. The moderator will present
   realistic scenarios throughout the session to which each country
   representative will respond with a move. Examples of a move could include
   anything from funding/building pipelines through certain regions, shifting
   energy suppliers, requesting aid, etc. Countries can either work together
   or alone in pursuing their respective interests during the simulation.

   The good news is that there will be very minimal preparation required for
   your part. The simulation will be live and interactive, thereby precluding
   any need for prepared speeches. In early September, STRATFOR will
   distribute a brief for all the participating countries that will allow you
   to familiarize yourself with the energy politics of each country. Prior to
   the event, you will also have the first a**triggera** for the simulation
   beginning in the year 2012 that will allow you to plan your first move.
   From there, the simulation takes on a life of its own as the moderator
   guides the discussion based on each participanta**s move. The simulation
   will be broken up into two-year intervals over the decade, allowing each
   participant to make at least one move per two-year-interval. I will walk
   each of you through a mock scenario closer to the event so everyone if
   clear on how the simulation is to play out.

   Next Steps:

   1.  Your contact information has been submitted to a TUSIAD
   representative, who will be managing your flight and hotel accommodations
   for the event. 

   2.  By July 14, please send me your biography. For marketing purposes, we
   would like to keep each bio limited to a single, yet substantial
   paragraph.

   3.  In early September, you will receive an information packet with the
   political energy briefs for each country, the bios of each participant and
   the finalized agenda for the event.
   If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach me by phone or
   email. I am very much looking forward to working with you in the lead-up
   to this event!
    
   All my best,

   Reva

   Reva Bhalla
   Director of Analysis
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
   +1 512.699.8385 (mobile)
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-20 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/100500_additional-request-on-bio-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>guenter.seufert@swp-berlin.org</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>101915</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT - RUSSIA/VENEZUELA - Kremlin's medical team
</title>
    <description>   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: protect until Reva's source clears their side
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Moscow
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Prosecutor General Office

   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISSEMINATION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

    Putin's personal doctor is Viktor Rovnov. But he only deals with Putin's
   day-to-day health and only with Putin. Dr. Rovnov is not really lent out
   to others, if you know what I mean.

    

   But there is a whole team of doctors that serve the senior group in the
   Kremlin, Putin included.  They run the Kremlin Medical Service. It is an
   official part of the Kremlin. A few of them also work for other hospitals,
   but their first duty is to the Kremlin.

    

   The team is big, but the principal doctors include Sergei Mironov, Elmira
   Boichenko, Victor Borisov and Alexander Myasnikov. Each are the best
   doctors in the former Soviet sphere. As far as specialties both Dr.
   Borisov and Dr. Boichenko work with cancer and chemotherapy. Dr. Borisov
   deals with rare and radical treatment of cases that are pretty hopeless.
   But Dr. Boichenko has studied very modern treatments in the west. They are
   both very good.

    

   I have heard of Chavez's case. The Kremlin typically offers to help its
   friends in such situations. But I have not heard of Dr. Borisov or Dr.
   Boichenko leaving the country yet. So I would suspect that Chavez has not
   accepted yet.  

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-08-01 18:39:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/101915_-alpha-insight-russia-venezuela-kremlin-s-medical-team-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>michael.wilson@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>102355</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - IRAN/US/SYRIA - Iran reaching out to US on
	post-Assad set-up? - ME1 and ME1386
</title>
    <description>   What does the source think about the possibility of a palace coup that
   isn't accepted by the SNC, FSA, people in the street or some combination
   thereof? Also does source know what the Iranians think about such a
   scenario (assuming they have considered it)

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2011 6:07:16 PM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - IRAN/US/SYRIA - Iran reaching out to US on
   post-Assad set-up? - ME1 and ME1386

   my bad, that should read HZ politburo

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Michael Wilson" &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2011 10:00:59 AM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - IRAN/US/SYRIA - Iran reaching out to US on
   post-Assad set-up? - ME1 and ME1386

   You say HZ source but notes say member of Hamas politburo

   On 12/13/11 9:29 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Reva's note - this is extremely interesting, especially the bolded part
     below. DOes Iran really think it can convince the US to collaborate with
     them on regime change in SYria in such a way that will end up in Iran's
     favor? the whole point of the US focusing in on Syria is to contain Iran
     in the first place. This sounds like the Iranians are getting to be in
     an increasingly desperate position. Always be wary of source bias, but
     why would a HZ source want to spread info on the weakness of the Syrian
     regime and the lack of options for Iran?  I do believe the part about
     Iran preferring a palace coup over the Turkish strategy of building up
     an opposition via FSA.

     SOURCE: ME1 and ME1386
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: ME1 and member of Hamas politburo
     PUBLICATION: Yes - worth a tactical analysis
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: B-C
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: B-C
     SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
     SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

     Marhaba Reva,
     I strongly believe that Asad's regime will fall in 2012. The
     conventional wisdom that Asad will survive, because both Iran and Israel
     view him with favor, is a thing of the past. The situation in Syria has
     reached the point of no return. It is true than nine months of
     demonstrations have not brought down the regime but, by the same token,
     regime brutality and heavy handedness have not quelled the uprising. If
     anything, the level of hostilities and army defections is on the rise.

     The breaking point will come when the military establishment realizes
     that Asad must go. There are signs that the military establishment is
     beginning to disintegrate. I talked to [ME1386] and he told me that
     Alawite officers and enlisted men are beginning to join the ranks of the
     FSA. This represents a major development. Alawite officers are divided
     since many of them are unhappy about the use of excessive force against
     Sunni protesters.  Alawite officers are aware that Asad is trying to
     find an asylum for himself and his family should his regime become
     unslavageable. This is upsetting many Alawites who are coming to realize
     that Asad will abandon them. If so, they reason that it would be
     suicidal to continue to win the wrath of the Sunnis. Walid al-Muallim
     offered to resign but Asad turned down his request. This is a clear
     indicator that many of Asad's men are realizing that they are putting a
     vain fight against the burgeoning uprising.

     The Iranians are weighing in the situation in Syria very carefully. One
     must read beyond the public statements of the Iranians, especially
     ayatollah Khamenei. Both Khamenei and Ahmadinejad have concluded that
     Asad's regime cannot be rescued. It is perfectly understood that the
     regime in Damascus will fall along lines similar to the Libyan model.
     There will have to be a coup in Damascus, be it a military or political
     one.

     One must not dismiss the pragmatism of Khamenei. Iran appears to be
     willing to use its influence in Syria to stage a coup, provided that it
     is able to ensure that the new leadership will continue to pursue
     excellent relations with Tehran. The Iranians have approached the
     Americans on this. In the past, Iran collaborated with the U.S. on the
     ouster of Saddam Hussein and Iran won big in Iraq. The Iranians would
     not mind working again on ousting Asad if they can secure good results
     in Syria. Syria's contiguity to Iraq allows Iran to play a direct role
     in the affairs of Damascus.

     The Iranians feel they need to act on Syria soon because the Turks have
     their own plans for Syria and are not coordinating with the Iranians. He
     says the Turks are moving slowly but systematically. Iran does not want
     to allow Turkey to take over Syria. Whereas the Turks are coordinating
     with the Brotherhood and the FSA, the Iranians prefer a palace coup in
     damascus in order to maintain their ties with Asad's successors. What is
     delaying action in Syria is the fact that the U.S. has not yet decided
     on the shape of the post-Asad political system. Nevertheless, he insists
     that Asad's regime will fall, although the future of Syria after the
     regime change remains nebulous.

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com

   --
   Nick Grinstead
   Regional Monitor
   STRATFOR
   Beirut, Lebanon
   +96171969463
</description>
    <date>2011-12-13 17:09:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/102355_re-alpha-insight-iran-us-syria-iran-reaching-out-to-us-on.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>nick.grinstead@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>107472</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - PKK stance about Ocalan
</title>
    <description>   the press release is revealing for the desperation in tone.  this is a
   very defensive statement claiming that it's all AKP's fault, Ocalan is
   stiill the only one who can issue orders, etc.

   Yerevan, the official story is helpful in understanding their position,
   but we need to get beyond the delivery of the press statements to more
   in-depth and personal conversations with these guys on what's stressing
   them out, like we talked about. that should be a lot more revealing.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Benjamin Preisler" &lt;ben.preisler@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, August 8, 2011 9:39:44 AM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - PKK stance about Ocalan

   CODE: ? 

   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Iraq
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  PKK spokesman in Qandil Mount
   PUBLICATION: IF USEFUL
   SOURCE RELIABILITY:A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Yerevan
   Ok, PKK answered to an email of mine I had sent on Thursday.  Reading this
   only tells that Ocalan is still in helm and PKK follows his instructions,
   even PKK tells Oclan that it has the power to correct
   any inadequacy experienced in the past by the PKK. I can tell that PKK
   feels apologetic for Oclan, if it has failed to follow his
   orders strictly.   have bolded some parts
   What you think?
   Haval yerewan,  this is what we have about the recent statement of our
   leader and our stance. best
   The Kurdish people's leader Abdullah Ocalan has told his lawyers on 27
   July 2011 that he has withdrawn himself from being an intermediary between
   the Turkish state and the PKK. This situation means that the Kurdish
   question and the solution of this question has acquired a new dimension. 
    

   Our leader is being kept under aggravated prison conditions for the past
   twelve years. He has never made these conditions an obstacle in the
   discussions for a resolution. On the contrary he took special care that he
   fulfilled the requirements of his role despite the aggravated conditions
   and restricted means. He made a huge effort to enable the solution of the
   question, to bring the parties together at a common ground, to create the
   grounds for democratic resolution and to make sure that the process
   developed in accordance with a plan. 

    

   The public is aware that our leader has declared various unilateral
   ceasefires since 1993. Undoubtedly these ceasefires were invaluable
   opportunities for the achievement of peace and solution of the question.
   However due to the conventional strict state policy of denial and
   annihilation all these golden opportunities were unfortunately wasted.
   Despite all these our leader was very careful that the guerilla forces
   were kept out of clashes so that the ceasefires continued to be valid
   during the term of the AKP's governance and peace efforts continued to
   flourish in the society. He tried to attract the complete attention,
   efforts and awareness of our movement, people and democratic public to the
   peaceful solution of the question. He not only found that it was essential
   to raise the awareness of the society to the solution of the question but
   also the state. 

    

   Instead of a positive approach to the meaningful and valuable efforts of
   our leader the  AKP government chose to implement quite the opposite
   policy. It considered our tendency to resolve the question as a weakness
   and a fault. Thus it not only aimed to isolate our leader from our
   movement and people it also aimed the surrender and elimination of our
   movement. The meeting between ErdoA:*an and Bush which is said to be a
   landmark is a result of these developments.

    

   The comprehensive air bombardments and Zap warfare later showed how
   dangerous the historical secret agreement made between ErdoA:*an and the
   President of the USA in Washington on 5 November 2007 was. This agreement
   aimed active intervention of  NATO and total elimination of our movement.
   Advanced technological power incomparable to any other time was used for
   air bombardment of the guerilla areas in order to inflict a severe-blow to
   our movement. On the other hand, policies of lynching, cultural and
   political genocide were imposed on the Kurdish people. Externally, under
   the leadership of the USA and NATO a unity of stance and attitude amongst
   the EU countries were achieved to implement the plan to besiege and crush
   our movement. 

    

   Our leader had prepared a road map in August 2009 which consisted of
   proposals for democratic solutions and aimed to advance the process from a
   no-solution situation to democratic solution situation. This road map was
   given by him to the Turkish state officials. However the Turkish state
   confiscated this road map which would have stimulated the discussions on
   resolving the question. It thus aimed to orientate the discussion on the
   resolution of the question within the framework of a project that targeted
   elimination and which was called a**national unity and solidaritya**. In
   addition military and political elimination was multi-directionally
   imposed. 

    

   Our movement responded the comprehensive attacks and operations of the
   Turkish state with its 1 June 2010 offensive. The 1 June offensive that
   continues for around two months re-strengthened the quest for a
   resolution. An example to this quest was that the Turkish state initiated
   direct dialogues in the form of an official delegation with our leader. 

    

   In response our leader made a call for a ceasefire to the parties in 2010
   and thus prepared the ground for the negotiation process to start with the
   state. Our movement declared a unilateral ceasefire on 13 August 2010 to
   give a chance to the development of a peaceful solution upon the
   commencement of dialogue between our leader an official delegation on
   behalf of the state. In order for the period of dialogue to evolve into
   the negotiation level our leader presented the official delegation of the
   state with three protocols in May of 2011. In accordance with the
   agreement reached with the delegation that represented the state the new
   government that took office after the 12 June elections should have put
   these protocols in action. The AKP government has not taken a single
   positive step in relation to these protocols.

    

   Our leader has clearly stated that in the event that Prime minister
   ErdoA:*an gives assurances and calls on him he can withdraw the guerilla
   forces out of the areas where clashes occur in one week and thus
   facilitate the question to be resolved. This is something that can not be
   decided by anyone else but by our leader. This would also have meant that
   if the state had displayed a decisive and strong-willed stance then the
   issue that had not been solved in the last thirty years would have been
   resolved in one historical step.

    

   The AKP government has shown how insistent it is on the familiar policies
   of denial and annihilation by not heeding to this invaluable opportunity
   and calls. In addition it has thus signalled that military and political
   operations shall increase in the near future.  In fact ever since the
   ceasefire of 13 August 2010 the military nor political operations of the
   state have not stopped. On the contrary operations against the political
   arena have increased immensely, tens of Kurdish women, children and youth
   have been killed and thousands of them detained and arrested. We have had
   more guerilla losses during this period of ceasefire then would normally
   be due to the military operations that have not stopped at all. Since
   March 51 guerillas have been martyred in these military operations by the
   Turkish state against the guerilla forces who had adopted a position of
   defence. The great losses the Turkish army incurred during the clashes
   that occurred in the rural areas of Silvan on 14 July was not an action
   that was pre-planned by our forces but as a result of a confrontation of
   the Turkish army's comprehensive and extensive operational forces in the
   area.

    

   The ErdoA:*an government has used the clashes that occurred during their
   military operation in Silvan as a pretext to declare that they have
   commenced a period of offensive with new strategy and tactics. Undoubtedly
   it is the AKP government who shall be responsible for all the negative
   developments and losses in the near future. ErdoA:*an has thus confessed
   through this declaration that it is the end of an era. This shall either
   mean that a painful and a violent period with high costs and severe
   consequences for our peoples shall commence or the gateway to a true
   democratic solution for the Kurdish question shall be opened whereby a
   brand new future for our peoples shall begin. 

    

   The aim of our leader in continuing the dialogue with the state was to
   initiate the resolution and peace process that our peoples deserve. It has
   thus been exposed that unilateral ceasefires and dialogues taken up under
   these conditions are not sufficient to generate the means necessary for a
   solution. The three protocols presented to the state and our movement by
   the Kurdish people's leader has not been responded by the state. Although
   our leader had previously given a certain meaning to the dialogues with
   the state the point we are at has led him to find both the state's and our
   movement's behaviour inadequate.  As a result he has declared it publicly
   that he has withdrawn himself to be an intermediary between the state and
   our movement. This stance has been taken up by our leader because an
   approach to advance the democratic constitutional process and to make
   headway in the democratic solution project has not been taken up. Serious
   and important conclusions should be deduced from this situation by the
   Turkish state and all concerned circles. This is also an important stance
   that should be seriously evaluated by our freedom movement and Kurdish
   people. As a result it is understandable that Kurdish and Turkish
   intellectuals as well as many circles, politicians and academics are
   discussing and evaluating this stance of our leader.

    

   Despite the fact that we are at the strongest position of our movement's
   history our inability to officially draw the state to the point of
   resolution and to come up with the necessary means of tools to resolve the
   question is a serious inadequacy. This is a matter for criticism and
   self-criticism especially in terms of not being able to fulfil our duties
   by not achieving a sufficient level of richness and performance in our
   struggle. 

    

   We have reached a level where it has become clear that if we do not have
   the opportunity to meet our leader directly and the Kurdish people's
   leader can not move freely in order to fulfil his duties then under these
   conditions it is not possible to develop the democratic solution. It is
   clear that as the movement and people we greatly value and lend meaning to
   the unique efforts of our leader. We have acted in great awareness and
   sensitivity despite the state's elimination policies and the conditions of
   imprisonment in Imrali so that these efforts would be responded to. We
   have yet again seen that the position adopted by us and our sensitivity
   were not enough to advance the process. 

    

   The solution to the Kurdish question which has been turned into a Gordian
   knot can only be resolved by talking to our leader Apo and to create
   conditions of health, security and freedom to move. The twelve years under
   the imprisonment conditions of ImralA:+- and especially the events of the
   last two years  have unarguably shown us that the question can not be
   resolved if our leader is not free. The mentality and policies that set
   the position of the Kurdish people's leader and PKK apart from the
   solution of the Kurdish question are ill-intentioned and dangerous
   approaches that have no desire to resolve the question.

    

   The state must clearly show that it has decided to abandon its policy to
   resolve the Kurdish question through violence, oppression and elimination
   and that from now on it is sincere in developing the democratic
   constitutional solution. The state therefore must generate the conditions
   where our leader shall be in a surrounding where his health, security and
   freedom to move can be secured. Our movement and our people shall not be
   convinced and satisfied by any other statement and development.

    

   The solution to the Kurdish question is more then ever demanding its
   resolution. The only person who has the power and role to attain its
   democratic solution is the Kurdish people's leader Abdullah Ocalan. This
   is a reality everyone knows and accepts. Therefore in order to speedily
   commence the negotiation process and to be able to soundly head the
   process Kurdish people's leader must be given the means. On these grounds
   we find it urgent and necessary that our leader has the means to move
   freely and the issues of health and security are resolved.

    

   All circles and personalities who are for the resolution of the question
   should see this reality and act more sensitively and courageously then
   ever before if they are to  contribute to this process being crowned with
   democratic solution and peace. Permanent peace can only be achieved like
   this. As the movement we have the necessary strength and decisiveness for
   a struggle that is ever more competent and with rich means in order to
   overcome the inadequacies experienced in the past, to attain a solution to
   the Kurdish question and to achieve our leader's freedom. Denial and
   annihilation policies indexed to violence were the fundamental policy of
   the Republic of Turkey when it came to Kurdish question. These policies
   have now failed. However the AKP is putting these policies back on the
   agenda through different tools. It is thus clear that our movement's great
   experiences together with a richer and more competent struggle shall lead
   to a magnificent resistance that will render this new offensive fruitless.
   It is quite clear that our people and movement have the strength to defend
   itself in the face of these violent policies and thus to carry the
   struggle to more advanced levels. This reality must be seen and the path
   to the resolution lies not in re-adopting policies of violence but lies in
   the state taking the calls made by our leader on 27 June into
   consideration. This is the only path to the profound solution of the
   question. As a result the initial and the most important step for a
   solution is to create the necessary conditions for our leader to play his
   role. Our struggle shall have its focus on such an axis and shall
   fundamentally target the creation of the health and security conditions of
   our leader as well as his freedom to move and thus to develop a solution
   to the question.

    

   It is quite important that our people and democratic and patriotic
   institutions focus on this axis and advance the struggle of the new
   period. It is clear that we shall evaluate all conditions with great care
   so that our great offensive attains an ultimate outcome, all our strength
   shall be channelled to our struggle so that our great historical march
   shall be successful and that we shall implement a manner of struggle that
   shall ascertain success. Through such a belief and decisiveness we shall
   take up the duties of the new period and shall attain peace and freedom. 

    

   The Presidency of the Executive Council  of the KCK  

   06 August 2011

   --
   Yerevan Saeed
   STRATFOR
   Phone: 009647701574587
   IRAQ

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19
</description>
    <date>2011-08-08 18:24:57</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/107472_re-alpha-insight-pkk-stance-about-ocalan-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>107541</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Concerns over military dissent,
 PdVSA reshuffling rumors - VZ301
</title>
    <description>   am also following up with the source on who within the upper military
   ranks is asking Chavez to step donw

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Korena Zucha" &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, August 15, 2011 9:46:15 AM
   Subject: Re: Fwd: [alpha] INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Concerns over military
   dissent, PdVSA reshuffling rumors - VZ301

   got it, thanks.

   On 8/15/11 9:45 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     wanted to make sure you saw this

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Benjamin Preisler" &lt;ben.preisler@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Monday, August 15, 2011 9:20:53 AM
     Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Concerns over military dissent,
     PdVSA reshuffling rumors - VZ301

     SOURCE: VZ301
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: well-connected source in Caracas
     PUBLICATION: Yes - these are responses to a client question
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
     SPECIAL HANDLING: send to Alpha and Korena Zucha
     SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

     Q tal?  Any news on the Ramirez/Maduro PdVSA rumors we were chatting
     about earlier? 

     (referring to rumors that PdVSA president Rafael Ramirez will soon be
     replaced by FM Nicolas Maduro)

      

     I was checking up last night.  It is something that has been discussed
     and was a**filtereda** by a credible source.

      

     However, it is not something that is going to happen right now.  The
     issue is that el presidente is very aware of the fact that RR has been
     lying to him.

      

      

     client question-

     Hey there are a bunch of noises coming from the military and chavez this
     week about military loyalty and subversion by the oppositions of the
     military under the Imperial Direction (guess who).

      

     This stuff is important and getting a lot of press in the papers.

      

     First, a**dona**t trust statementsa**.

      

     I should add that in our specific situation things are not pure black or
     pure white.  We have a lot of a**nuancesa**.  Military are not a solid
     block like Chavism is not a solid and homogeneus block either.

     Within the military, you have the ones that have very much benefited by
     the Presidente (former companions of promotion or coup da**A(c)tat
     pals).

     High ranks that have enjoyed the economic benefits of this
     administration tend to be really concerned. 

     A.     They need to enjoy their fortunes here, where else can they go to
     make so much money?  So, they can either:

     A.     Try to scare the opposition, what they are doing through
     statements and threats.

     A.     They can negotiate a*| what some of them are already doing.

      

     Another group within the Army Forces are those that have expressed
     discomfort by the presence and power of Cubans within the military
     establishment.

      

     You have as well the military sector that favors right and not left
     political approaches.

      

      

     Something is up:

      

     1)   the opp has no hooks in the military so that is a lie

      

     Military reactions are not really so tied to opp hooks. This is what HCF
     makes believe through his statements.   There are enough reasons to find
     unrest within the military as to think they need to be a**enchanted by
     the oppa**.  This doesna**t mean that opp is not capitalizing the
     discomfort.

      

     2)   if there is a loyalty issue its internal

      

     Yes, there is an internal loyalty issue.  Tiredness, Fear of future and
     of losing privileges.

      

     3)   The military said they would only recognize ChA!vez, as the C&amp;C so
     guess the Constitution and the 2012 elections are a moot point!

      

     This is the a**scary manipulative speecha*|. But people dona**t buy this
     so easily.  There is more concern for potential militias reactions
     (untrained and fanatics).

      

     4) Chavez just announced 2 B in loans for more guns BECAUSE HE WILL NEED
     A STRONG MILITARY FROM 2013 TO 2020!

      

     What is going on and why now when Chavez is suppose to be on the mend
     and his popularity is up and he has more access to $$$ enhancing
     fluidity of capital?

      

     He needs to keep the idea that the country is going to be invaded.  He
     needs to keep in the popular imaginary that we need to get ready to
     defend the fatherland from the enemy.  That helps him to keep his
     follower a**togethera**. 

      

     Why all the fuss?

      

     HCF is worried.  Unrest in military barracks is a fact.  Rumors that
     some high ranks military might have asked the Presidente. to withdraw
     from office due to his illness, are spreading since last week.  As I
     said before, they dona**t want to lose his a**power sharea**.

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/107541_re-alpha-insight-venezuela-concerns-over-military-dissent.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>107808</id>
    <title>Re: STRAT-DOC Example
</title>
    <description>   even having one of these done by tomorrow would be a miracle for me, let
   alone three

   On 8/15/11 3:58 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     This is an example of what I am looking for in the regional Strat-Docs
     that you're working on.  As a reminder, the AOR doc is intended to
     present in condensed form the STRATFOR point of view on the issues that
     we care about. his is a doc that will continue to be built out, but as a
     starting point, i want us to have this as a foundation for us to update
     day by day and week by week when we meet as a team and when new issues
     comes to the fore. As new info comes in (whether through insight, OSINT,
     research, etc.) we have a very easy reference to throw that info against
     and see if it affirms or undermines our own assessment. This also
     prevents anyone from going off the reservation on any given assessment.

     Below is an example of what I wrote on Iran (will be adding links)

                               MIDEAST STRAT-DOC

                 A compilation of regional themes and forecasts

      

                      ** BROAD TREND - THE RISE OF IRAN **

      

     Iran Net Assessment:  Iran is essentially a mountain fortress, whose
     core is situated in the Zagros and Elburz highlands. After nearly half a
     millennia, Iran is now in a position to work on one of its final
     imperatives of eliminating Mesopotamia as a strategic threat. Iran's
     domestic socioeconomic troubles, the fractious nature of the region's
     Shiite landscape, the threat of conflict with the United States and a
     rising Turkey are all significant constraints to Iranian westward
     expansion.

      

     Decade Forecast on Iran - 2010-2020

     Iran will be contained, as it simply does not have the underlying power
     to be a major player in the region beyond its immediate horizons.
     Whether this will be by military action and isolation of Iran or by a
     political arrangement with the current or a successor regime is unclear
     but irrelevant to the broader geopolitical issue

      

     Iranian influence in Iraq and US-Iran Negotiations

      

     Iran's has a core imperative to consolidate Shiite power in Iraq so as
     to prevent the emergence of another hostile Sunni power on its Western
     flank and to create a strategic foothold in the heart of the Arab world
     with which to project its influence.

      

     Iran's facilitation of the US invasion of Iraq to topple Saddam Hussein
     formed the foundation of a US-Iran negotiation over the future of Iraq.
     What the US did not anticipate was that the fall of the Sunni Baathist
     regime would fundamentally upset the Arab/Persian and broader Sunni/Shia
     balance of power in the Persian Gulf region. As a result, the US
     position has increasingly felt the need to develop a strong
     counterbalance to Iranian power in Iraq.

      

     MAIN QUESTION MOVING FORWARD - (as stated in 2011 annual forecast)

      

     The most important question in the Persian Gulf is the degree to which
     the United States will draw down its forces in the region. The answer to
     this question determines the region's geopolitical reality.

      

     Other than the United States, the greatest military power in the Persian
     Gulf region is Iran. Whether or not Iran acquires nuclear weapons, it is
     the major conventional power. Should the United States remove all
     effective military force in Iraq and limit its forces in Kuwait, two
     things would happen. First, Iraq would fall under Iranian domination.
     Second, the states on the Arabian Peninsula would have to accommodate
     the new balance of power, making concessions to Iranian interests.

      

     The strategic dilemma the US faces is that Iran, through its political,
     religious, business and militant links, clearly holds the upper hand in
     any negotiation taking place in Baghdad over an extended stay for US
     forces in Iraq. Iran could negotiate a small number of US `trainers' to
     remain in Iraq, but only with the intention of having those forces
     vulnerable to Iranian proxies. US, on the other hand, has an interest in
     maintaining at least one division of troops that would be reconfigured
     and equipped to block Iran.

      

     2011 ANNUAL FORECAST - The United States will seek to retain a
     significant presence in Iraq to balance Iran rather than withdraw fully.
     We also forecast a significant, behind-the-scenes progression in
     U.S.-Iranian negotiations toward the year's end as Washington tries to
     cope with the strategic dilemma of leaving a power vacuum in Iraq.

      

     3rd QUARTER FORECAST - We said that Iran so far has been able to block
     U.S. efforts in Iraq but that the struggle is not over. The United
     States will continue trying to persuade more independent-minded Iraqi
     factions to support an extended stay for U.S. forces. Iran will continue
     to use agents of influence in Iraq, particularly the Sadrites to remind
     both U.S. and Iraqi officials of the consequences of defying Iran's
     wishes on this issue. Confident in its position in Iraq, Iran will also
     try to assert its influence in Afghanistan and try to convince
     Washington that a broader negotiation with Tehran is needed in order to
     exit the war. However, given the limits to Iran's influence in this
     arena, such efforts are unlikely to make much headway.

      

     Iranian Nuclear Issue

      

     STRATFOR believes that Iran has primarily spent the past decade using
     its nuclear program as a bargaining chip in broader negotiations with
     the US over Iraq, as the Iraq imperatives comes well before the desire
     to develop a nuclear deterrent strategy. The more confident Iran becomes
     over Iraq, the more energy and resources it can devote to building a
     credible nuclear deterrent to round outs security. However, there is a
     huge distance between testing a nuclear device and weaponizing one. We
     believe Iran is facing significant technical challenges in developing a
     nuclear weapons capability, due in no small part to interdiction efforts
     and Israel's covert campaign to sabotage the program.

      

     STRATFOR considers any sanctions campaign against Iran will not be
     effective in shaping Iran's behavior to Western interests without the
     full and active involvement of Russia and China (which we consider
     unlikely.) There is much money to be made in a sanctions bonanza, and
     though Iran is finding it more difficult to do day to day business, it
     is not going to isolated from the global economy.

      

     Potential for US/Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities

      

     We believe the chance of surgical strikes targeting Iranian nuclear
     facilities is very low, inasmuch as the Iranian response would be to
     attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz. While it is possible for the U.S.
     Navy to keep the strait clear, it cannot control the market reaction to
     military activity there. The consequences of failure for the global
     economy would be enormous and too great a risk without a much broader
     war designed to destroy Iran's conventional forces (naval, air and land)
     from the air. This could be done, but it would take many months and also
     run huge risks.
     http://www.stratfor.com/forecast/20110107-annual-forecast-2011

      

     Iran's main deterrent strategy against an attack on its nuclear
     facilities has 3 prongs - closing the Strait of Hormuz, Hezbollah
     attacks, destabilizing Iraq; Iran still has the Hormuz option, though
     it's a costly one. Hezbollah remains Iran's strongest militant proxy,
     but the group is under increased strain now given the Syria situation.
     The Iraq option loses its punch if US significantly draws down its
     presence in Iraq.

      

     Iranian influence in Levant

      

     Iran's IRGC has been strengthening its grip on Hezbollah in Lebanon over
     the past several years, but is know facing a serious threat of seeing
     its influence in the Levant decline should the Al Assad regime in Syria
     collapse and lead to prolonged instability in the country.

      

     Iran relies on Damascus as its primary for a logistic feed to Hezbollah
     in Lebanon as well as Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas in Gaza (We
     believe Iran has been able to displace a significant amount of Saudi
     influence in Gaza since the 2007 Hamas Gaza takeover.) Without active
     cooperation from Syria, Iran will be much more constrained in
     maintaining support to its proxies in this region.

      

     QUESTION MOVING FORWARD - What is Iran's contingency plan for the
     collapse of the Al Assad regime? Can Iran find an alternative among the
     Alawites to back that would be able to get Christian support in trying
     to keep the Sunnis from coming to power? What is the HZ contingency plan
     for regime collapse in Syria?

      

     Iran's Aim to Reshape the Political Reality in Eastern Arabia

      

     STRATFOR believes that Iran exploited the Arab unrest in North Africa to
     fuel a destabilization campaign in Bahrain that it hoped would spread to
     Shiite-concentrated areas of Saudi Arabia's oil-rich Eastern Province.
     The Iranian intent is to reshape the political reality of Eastern Arabia
     to place Bahrain in Shiite hands, remove US military installations in
     the Persian Gulf and assert Shiite power in the Saudi kingdom. Iranian
     capability in this regard, however, is still highly limited.

      

     Iran has political, religious, commercial and covert links in Bahrain to
     maintain a foothold there, but does not appear to have what it takes to
     force regime change. The STRATFOR assessment (based primarily on insight
     from George) is that Iran still has a lot more force to bear in Bahrain
     should it feel the need and opportunity to do so. This is an assessment
     worthy of being challenged.  STRATFOR also believes Iran's agenda for
     Bahrain is far more long-term, focused right now on building existing
     dissent in the isles and using the threat of a broader Iranian
     destabilization campaign in Eastern Arabia to coerce Saudi Arabia into
     an accommodation on Iranian terms. We saw hints of Iran-Saudi
     negotiations over a truce in Bahrain in the early part of the 3rd
     quarter, but not much movement since.

      

     Iran's Internal Power Struggle

      

     STRATFOR does not believe the youth-led Green Movement that arose in
     Iran in 2009 from the elections has the internal strength to seriously
     challenge the regime. The demonstrations are not representative of the
     majority will of the population and Iran's internal security apparatus
     appears capable of suppressing this level of dissent.

      

     STRATFOR does not see Iran's internal power struggle in the upper ranks
     of the regime as a dire enough to propel the fall of the regime on its
     own, either. There is an important dynamic underway, however, in which a
     faction led by Ahmadinejad is posing a serious challenge to the
     legitimacy of the corrupted clerical elite. We believe this movement
     will outlive Ahmadinejad and create further cleavages within the regime.
     Rather than this split leading to regime collapse and democratic
     revolution (what the media seems to think will happen,) we see the
     military - specifically the IRGC - most benefiting from this power
     struggle. The IRGC is likely to emerge as the most powerful institution
     in Iran in the medium to longer term.

      

     Iran-Russia Relations

      

     Russia is Iran's primary source of foreign support, but the alliance
     between Moscow and Tehran is highly tenuous. Iran and Russia are natural
     geopolitical rivals; Russia does not want to see Iran dominating the
     Persian Gulf region, developing a nuclear capability, exerting influence
     in the Caucasus or becoming a major energy alternative to Russia for the
     West. In the shorter term, however, Iran is a useful irritant to the
     United States for Russia to in its broader negotiations with Washington.
     Ultimately, Iran is an expendable bargaining chip for Russia, which
     makes Iran deeply vulnerable. The main pressure points Russia can use in
     playing the Iran card include: the potential sale of S300s to Iran, the
     completion of Bushehr and additional nuclear expertise given to Iran,
     UNSC backing (or lack thereof), security assistance in containing
     dissent, sanctions busting - gasoline sales.
</description>
    <date>2011-08-15 23:03:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-05 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/107808_re-strat-doc-example-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bayless.parsley@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>107944</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - SYRIA/TURKEY/KSA - KSA and Turkey fed up with
 the Syrian regime - Syria working with PKK? - ME1
</title>
    <description>   A reliable media report that I saw says that US expert on Syria Fred Hof
   was present in Ricciardione's meeting with IK yesterday. Apparently Turkey
   is still opposed to sanctions and military intervention. It's not clear
   what US demands from Turkey concretely.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Emre Dogru" &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, August 9, 2011 10:21:33 AM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - SYRIA/TURKEY/KSA - KSA and Turkey fed up
   with the Syrian regime - Syria working with PKK? - ME1

   I don't think Syria has come to a point where it decided to support PKK
   against Turkey. That's always possible as I said in my comment yesterday,
   but would be a very risky move for Syria. Plus, I'm not sure how much PKK
   would listen to Damascus now. As far as I know, Turkish and Syrian
   factions within PKK do not see eye to eye on many issues. It should also
   be remembered that Ocalan warned PKK against being pulled into Syrian
   orbit and this makes it all the more difficult for Damascus.
   As far as the popular pressure is concerned, I really doubt that what the
   Turkish diplomat says reflects the truth 100 percent. I'm not seeing a
   public pressure on AKP that would force it to intervene in Syria no matter
   what (weeping Emine is a silly example). I mean, if you think about it,
   you would expect much more reaction from an Islamist Sunni government
   government in Turkey, especially during Ramadan. All Islamist ministers
   condemn Syria, but they don't go beyond. You would expect mass protests,
   demonstrations before the Syrian embassy, rallies and hunger strikes in
   Taksim square etc. Nothing is taking place and probably AKP controls the
   public reaction not to get under pressure.
   As such, I don't think Turks are looking for an excuse to intervene.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Kamran Bokhari" &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: alpha@stratfor.com
   Sent: Monday, August 8, 2011 7:58:22 PM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - SYRIA/TURKEY/KSA - KSA and Turkey fed up
   with the Syrian regime - Syria working with PKK? - ME1

   I have noticed how senior Turkish figures have been extremely emotional in
   their anger and sadness about the way in which the Syrians have been
   killing their citizens. I think the Turks are very close to saying fuck it
   with regards to the Syrian regime. I don't think Ankara will use the
   military. Rather its political influence among the Sunnis, which doesn't
   have to do with the common fiqh (most Muslims do not relate on the fiqhi
   basis) and instead general sectarian, ideological, and historical
   linkages. The AKP has developed good ties with its own Alevi population,
   which they will use to influence the Alawites in Syria.  

   On 8/8/11 12:07 PM, Michael Wilson wrote:

     PUBLICATION: background/analysis
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: ME1 reflecting on his meetings with Turkish and
     Saudi ambassadors to Lebanon
     Reliability : B
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: 4 - pretty dramatic viewpoints.
     DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
     SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
     ** The source's mention of Syria 'talking' to PKK caught my eye. Does
     Turkey thing Syria is trying to ramp up PKK to distract Turkey from any
     military adventurism in Syria?  Have we heard anything else on this?

     There is nothing that Bashar Asad can do at this point to salvage his
     regime. This is the impression that I got today from communicating with
     both the TUrkish and Saudi ambassadors. Both diplomats say Asad has
     defied their repeated requests that he listens to his people but he
     chose, instead, to deal with the protests in a very heavy-handed manner.
     The Turkish diplomat says Asad thinks that former Egyptian president
     Husni Mubarak and his Tunisian counterpart Zayn al-Abidin bin Ali fell
     because they did not use enough coercive force to crush the protests and
     gave up too soon. The Saudi Diplomat says Asad has consistently
     discarded king Abdullah's advice. Abdullah sent his son Abdulaziz to
     relay to Asad that the Saudi king really likes him and considers him as
     his son. Abdulaziz told Asad to be more flexible and display grace in
     dealing with his frustrated people. Asad has made it extremely difficult
     for Abdullah to come to the rescue, and noted that he has to listen to
     the Saudi people, especially the religious establishment, who are
     vehemently anti-Asad.

     The Turkish source says his country's minister of foreign affairs Davut
     Oglu will be serving the Syrians an ultimatum tomorrow. He says the
     Syrian regime is talking to the PKK. He adds that the Syrian regime has
     crossed the red line and will have to bear the cost of its short sight
     and recalcitrance. The anti-Asad regional and international storm is
     gathering. He ays this development and changing attitude towards Asad is
     of the utmost necessity  for legitimizing future Turkish military action
     inside Syria. The Saudi source says Abdulaziz told Asad on a number of
     occasions to avoid giving the Turks a reason to interfere in Syria, but
     it seems Asad has not succeeded in grasping the complexity of the
     regional situation.  KSA does not want Turkey to expand its regional
     position because it will only come at the expense of moderate Arabs.

     The Turkish diplomat says Asad's crudeness is threatening Turkey's
     stability. The Syrian government has lost its ability to control its own
     side of the 850 km long border between the two countries. He says there
     is, in addition, a strong popular pressure inside Turkey for
     intervention in Syria. He gave one example - the Turkish prime
     minister's wife is an ethnic Syrian. She keeps crying when she sees
     gruesome images coming from Syria. She has been telling Erdogan to do
     something about it. The Turkish diplomat was quick to add that Turkish
     foreign policy is not determined by the tears of a weeping wife. He says
     there are very many similar cases of pressure coming from Turkey. Many
     Turks still consider Syria an extension of Turkey and there are millions
     of ethnic Arabs living in Turkey. Both Turks and Syrians share a similar
     culture and adherence to the same school of Islamic jurisprudence, i.e.,
     the Hanafi school.

     Both Turkish and Saudi diplomat expect the spread of the protest
     movement in Syria to Aleppo and Damascus and seem to accept that the
     Syrian uprising is unstoppable. They argue that it is too late for Asad
     to do something about it at this point. Both concur that the worst is
     yet to happen in Syria.

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com


   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-08-09 09:28:51</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/107944_re-alpha-insight-syria-turkey-ksa-ksa-and-turkey-fed-up-with.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>108196</id>
    <title>Re: [latam] BRAZIL/PARAGUAY/CT - Brazil's Parana state decided to
 create frontier battalion with military police to combat crime along
 borders with Paraguay and Argentina
</title>
    <description>   this does not mean, however, that there is no coordination with the
   federal police in cases that they have to deal with border security. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Paulo Gregoire" &lt;paulo.gregoire@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "LatAm AOR" &lt;latam@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, August 16, 2011 11:34:59 AM
   Subject: Re: [latam] BRAZIL/PARAGUAY/CT - Brazil's Parana state decided to
   create frontier battalion with military police to combat crime along
   borders with Paraguay and Argentina

   state police only have power within their own state. when it comes to
   dealing borders and international crimes the federal police is the one
   that has power. Every state in Brazil has a military and civil police.
   State military police is under the state jurisdication not federal.In Rio
   Grande do Sul, the military police is a military brigade because at the
   time of the civil war against Brazil, the state police was used to fight
   Brazilian troops. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Allison Fedirka" &lt;allison.fedirka@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "LatAm AOR" &lt;latam@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, August 16, 2011 11:27:41 AM
   Subject: Re: [latam] BRAZIL/PARAGUAY/CT - Brazil's Parana state decided to
   create frontier battalion with military police to combat crime along
   borders with Paraguay and Argentina

   How much power can military police in Parana have?  Paraguay obviously
   picked this story up because they are paranoid of invasion; I didn't see
   mention of it in my Argentina sweep this AM.  Just want to see how much
   this fits in with our thoughts on Brazil - both in terms of border
   security and growing influence in Paraguay

   Brasil crearA! un "batallA^3n fronterizo" para combatir la delincuencia
   18:30 - Lunes, 15 de Agosto de 2011 -
   http://www.ultimahora.com/notas/454754-Brasil-creara-un-batallon-fronterizo-para-combatir-la-delincuencia

   El estado de ParanA!, Brasil, decidiA^3 crear un "batallA^3n fronterizo de
   la policAa militar" para combatir la delincuencia en la zona fronteriza
   con Paraguay y Argentina. El ministro de defensa Amorim manifestA^3 el
   apoyo del Gobierno Federal.

   El gobernador de ParanA!, Beto Richa, manifestA^3 al ministro de Defensa
   brasileA+-o Celso Amorim, la decisiA^3n del Gobierno estadual de crear un
   batallA^3n de frontera de la policAa militar, que debe contar con al menos
   500 hombres, y le propuso la integraciA^3n de las medidas de seguridad
   para combatir el narcotrA!fico y el contrabando de armas y otros
   productos, segA-on informa el sitio web del gobierno paranaense.

   Por su parte, el ministro respondiA^3 de forma positiva, afirmando que
   conoce bien la zona fronteriza de ParanA! y que el gobierno federal estA!
   dispuesto a abordar el problema con las fuerzas de seguridad nacional, en
   corto plazo, y que las nuevas medidas se adoptarA!n a lo largo de la parte
   sur del paAs.

   "Estamos preparando un plan integral de protecciA^3n y control de las
   fronteras. Tenemos todo el interA(c)s en apoyar las iniciativas de
   ParanA!, principalmente con la movilizaciA^3n de la Armada", sostuvo.

   La reuniA^3n en Brasil fue acompaA+-ado por el general De Nardi, parte del
   ministro del gabinete y los secretarios de Reinaldo Almeida Cesar
   (Seguridad PA-oblica) y Deonilson Rolde (Jefe de Gabinete), y el jefe de
   la oficina de representaciA^3n de ParanA! en Brasilia Alceni guerra.

   El secretario de Seguridad PA-oblica, Reinaldo Almeida CA(c)sar, anunciA^3
   que se vienen nuevas reuniones de la Mesa de GestiA^3n Integrada (GGI) en
   Foz de IguazA-o, creado con el propA^3sito especAfico de aumentar la
   seguridad pA-oblica en la zona fronteriza.

   El grupo trabaja en la planificaciA^3n y coordinaciA^3n de acciones de
   cumplimiento para combatir el crimen organizado y el narcotrA!fico en las
   zonas fronterizas de ParanA!, con Paraguay y Argentina.

   La mayor interacciA^3n entre el Gobierno de ParanA! y el EjA(c)rcito
   tambiA(c)n serA! abordado por el gobernador Beto Richa y el comandante
   militar del Sur, el general Carlos BolAvar Goellner.
</description>
    <date>2011-08-16 16:36:30</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-13 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/108196_re-latam-brazil-paraguay-ct-brazil-s-parana-state-decided-to.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>paulo.gregoire@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>latam@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:latam@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>108466</id>
    <title>Re: S-weekly for comment:  Mexican Cartels and Protection from the
	Long Arm of Uncle Sam
</title>
    <description>   in blue

   On 8/16/11 2:52 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     On 8/16/11 2:20 PM, scott stewart wrote:

       Link: themeData

       Mexican Cartels and Protection from the Long Arm of Uncle Sam

        

       Related Link: 

        

       http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20091112_geopolitics_mexico_mountain_fortress_besieged

        

       http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110518-corruption-why-texas-not-mexico

        

        

       Stratfor book:

        

       http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1449905714?ie=UTF8&amp;tag=stratfor03-20&amp;linkCode=a

        

        

        

       It is summer in Juarez, and again this year we find the Vicente
       Carrillo Fuentes organization (VCF) also known as the Juarez Cartel,
       under pressure and making threats. At this timelast year [link
       http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100804_mexicos_juarez_cartel_gets_desperate
       ] the VCF had detonated a small improvised explosive device (IED)
       inside a car and had threatened to employ a far larger IED (100 KG) if
       the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation and Drug Enforcement Agency
       did not investigate the head of Chihuahua StatePolice intelligence,
       who the VCF claimed was working for the Sinaloa Cartel.   

        

       The VCF did attempt to [link
       http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100913_mexico_security_memo_sept_13_2010
       ] employ another IED on Sept 10, 2010, but this device, which failed
       to detonate, contained only 16 kilograms of explosives and was not the
       large 100KG device the group had threatened. 

        

       This year, the unrelenting pressure of the Sinaloa Cartel has
       continued, and the VCF, felling the pressure is again making threats. 
       On July 27, "narcomantas" - banners containing messages from drug
       trafficking cartels - appeared in Juarez and Chihuahua signed by La
       Linea the enforcement wing of the VCF making explicit threats against
       the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, the U.S. Consulate in Juarez
       and border crossings.  Two days after the appearance of these narco
       mantas, a senior La Linea leader - whose name appeared in the
       threats,  [link 

       http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110801-mexico-security-memo-la-linea-leader-captured]
       was arrested by Mexican Authorities who were aided by intelligence
       provided by the U.S. Government. 

        

       As we have discussed elsewhere, the Mexican cartels, including the
       VCF,   [link
       http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110413-perceived-car-bomb-threat-mexico
       ] clearly possess the capability to construct and employ large vehicle
       borne improvised explosive devices -- truck bombs - and yet they have
       chosen not to do so. These groups are not adverse to bloodshed, or
       even outright barbarity when they believe it is useful. The decision
       to abstain from certain activities,such as employing truck bombs,
       indicates that there must be compelling reasons for doing so. After
       all, groups in Lebanon, Pakistan and Iraq have demonstrated that truck
       bombs are a very effective means of killing perceived enemies and for
       sending strong messages.  

        

       Perhaps the most compelling reason for the Mexican cartels to abstain
       from such activities is that it allows them to maintain the buffer
       that is currently insulating them from the full force of the U.S.
       government: the Mexican government.  

   For me the most compelling reason is that their is not tactical advantage
   to be gained by attacking the US or its proxies.  The buffer is part of
   that tactical reasoning, but there is another.  Once the drugs hit the
   border and are dispersed into the US the cartels do not need to follow or
   protect the product.  It has reached its market and the money is on the
   way.         

        

       The Buffer

        

       Despite their very public manifestations of machismo, the cartel
       leaders clearly fear and respect the strength of the world's only
       super power.  This is evidenced by [link
       http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110518-corruption-why-texas-not-mexico

        ] the dramatic change in cartel activities at the U.S./Mexico border.
       In Mexico, the cartels have the freedom to operate far more brazenly
       than they can in the U.S. both in terms of drug trafficking and in
       violence. Shipments ofnarcotics traveling through Mexico tend to be
       far larger than shipments moving into and through the U.S. As these
       large shipments reach the Mexican side of theborder, they are taken to
       stash houses where they are then divided up into smaller quantities
       for transport into and through the U.S.  

        

       As far as violence, while the cartels do kill people on the U.S. side
       of the border, their use of violence tends to be far more discreet and
       it has not yet incorporated the dramatic flair that is seen on the
       Mexican side of the border, where bodies are frequently dismembered
       and bodies are hung from pedestrian bridges over major thoroughfares.
       The cartels are also careful not to assassinate public figures such as
       police chiefs, mayors and reporters like they frequently do in Mexico.

        

       The border does more than just constrain the cartels, however. It also
       constrains the activities of U.S. law enforcement and intelligence
       agencies. These agencies cannot pursue cartels on the Mexican side of
       the border with the same vigor that they exercise on the U.S. side.
        Occasionally, the U.S. government will succeed in luring a wanted
       Mexican cartel leader outside ofMexico, as they did in the Aug. 2006
       [link http://www.stratfor.com/mexico_price_peace_cartel_wars] arrest
       of Javier Arellano Felix, or catching one operating in the U.S. like
       they did Javier's oldest brother, Francisco Arellano Felix, but by and
       large most wanted cartel figures remain in Mexico out of the reach of
       U.S. law.

        

       One facet of this buffer is corruption, which is endemic in Mexico and
       which reaches all the way from the lowest municipal police officer
       [link 
       http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20081229_mexico_arrest_and_cartel_sources_high_places
       ] to the Presidential palace.  Indeed, Raul Salinas de Gortari, the
       brother of former Mexican president Carlos Salinas is widely believed
       to have been involved in cartel activity, even though he was acquitted
       in a murder case in 2005. Over the years several senior Mexican
       anti-drug officials [link
       http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20081124_mexico_security_memo_nov_24_2008
       ] to include the nation's drug czar have been arrested and charged
       with corruption. 

        

       However, the money generated by the Mexican cartels has far greater
       effects than just promoting corruption. The billions of dollars that
       come into the Mexican economy via the drug trade are important to the
       Mexican banking sector and to industries where the funds are laundered
       such as construction.  Because of this, there are many powerful
       Mexican businessmen who profit either directly or indirectly from the
       narcotics trade and it would not be in their best interest for the
       billions of drug dollars to stop flowing into Mexico.Such people can
       place heavy pressure on the political system by either supporting or
       withholding support from particular candidates or parties.  Because of
       this, sources in Mexico have been telling Stratfor that they believe
       that Mexican politicians, like PresidentFilipe Calderon  [link
       http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110415-mexican-drug-war-2011-update
       ] are far more interested in stopping drug violence than they are the
       flow of narcotics. Then isn't the question why did Calderon start this
       war in the first place?  did he miscalculate the consequences?  if so
       i hope he burns in hell for that sort of short-sighted stupidityThis
       is a pragmatic approach. Clearly, as long as demand for drugs in the
       U.S. remains, there will be people who will find ways to meet that
       demand. It is impossible to totally stop or even slow? the flow of
       narcotics to the U.S. market.

        

       In addition to corruption and the economic benefits Mexico realizes
       from the drug trade, there is also another very important element that
       causes the Mexican government to act as a buffer between the Mexican
       cartels and the U.S. Government - [link
       http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20091112_geopolitics_mexico_mountain_fortress_besieged

        ] geopolitics. The Mexico/U.S. relationship is a long one and has
       involved a lot of competition and conflict.  From the Mexican
       perspective, American imperialist aggression, through the Texas war of
       independence and the Mexican American war, resulted in Mexico losing
       nearlyhalf of its territory to its powerful northern neighbor. Less
       than a century ago, U.S. troops invaded northern Mexico in response to
       Pancho Villa's incursions into the U.S. 

        

       The U.S. also has a long history of meddling in Mexico and other parts
       of Latin America. Because of this history, Mexico, like most of the
       rest of Latin America, regards the UnitedStates as a threat to its
       sovereignty.  Th result of this perception is that the Mexican
       government and the Mexican people in in general are very reluctant to
       allow the U.S. to become too involved in Mexican affairs. The idea of
       American troops or law enforcement agents withboots on the ground in
       Mexico is considered as especially threatening.

        

       A Thin Barrier

        

       While Mexican sovereignty and international law, combine with
       corruption and economics to create a barrier that prevents the U.S.
       from pursuing the Mexican cartels with its full might, this barrier is
       not totally inviolable. There are two distinct ways this type of
       barrier can be breeched, by force and by consent.

        

       An example of the first was seen following the 1985 kidnapping,
       torture and murder of U.S. DEA Special Agent Enrique Camarena. When
       the U.S. DEA was not able to get what it viewed as satisfactory
       assistance from the Mexican government in pursuing the case inspite of
       tremendous pressure by the U.S. government. This caused the DEA to
       unilaterally enter Mexico and kidnap two Mexican citizens connected to
       the case. Honduran drug kingpin Juan Matta-Ballesteros was also
       kidnapped from his home in Honduras due to his involvement in the
       Camarena case.  Would the political environment now allow for the same
       US DEA action?

        

       As a result of the U.S. reaction to the Camarena murder, the
       Guadalajara cartel, Mexico's most powerful criminal organization was
       decapitated with the arrests of powerful traffickers Miguel Angel
       Felix Gallardo, Ernesto Fonseca Carrillo and Rafael Caro
       Quintero.[were the previous three guys the ones the DEA went across
       the border to arrest?  or how exactly was their arrest a result of
       Camarena's murder?] They also lost their connection to the Medellin
       cartel  (Matta-Ballesteros) and the organization was also fractured
       [how exactly is this linked to Camarena's murder?  What was the US
       response exactly that you imply the cartels are so afraid of?] into
       smaller units that would become what are today the Sinaloa, Juarez,
       Gulf and Tijuana cartels.  Couldn't you then argue it is only the
       leaders who are afraid of US involvement?  The Camarena case taught
       the Mexican cartel bosses that they needed to be careful to not bring
       the full wrath of the U.S. government down upon themselves, because
       the U.S. government was powerful enough to disregard international law
       and unilaterally take action if sufficiently provoked.  (This lesson
       was recently demonstrated by the assassination of Osama bin laden in
       Abbottabad, Pakistan.) 

        

       But in addition to force, sometimes the U.S. government can be invited
       into a country despite concerns about sovereignty. This happens when
       the population has something that theyfear more than U.S. involvement,
       and is what happened in Colombia in the late 1980's.  In an effort to
       influence the Colombian government not to cooperate with the U.S.
       government and extradite him to the U.S., Colombian drug lord Pablo
       Escobar resulted to terror. In 1989, he launched a string of terrorist
       attacks that included the assassination of one presidential candidate,
       the bombing a civilian airliner in an attempt to kill a second
       presidential candidate, as well as several large VBIED attacks
       including a 1,000 pound truck bomb in Dec. 1989 directed against the
       Colombian Administrative Department of Security (DAS), the major
       domestic security service  [or whatever the correct description may
       be], that caused massive damage in the area around the DAS building in
       downtown Bogata. These attacks had a powerful impact on the government
       and the Colombian people and caused them to reach out to the U.S. for
       assistance in spite of their concern about U.S. power. Thatincreased
       U.S. assistance led to the death of Escobar and the destruction of his
       organization.

        

       The lesson of the Escobar case was do not push your own government or
       population too far or they willturn on you and invite the Americans
       in.

        

        

       Full Circle

        

       So, coming back full circle to the situation in Mexico today, there
       are indeed cartel organizations that have been heavily damaged. Over
       the past few years, we have seen groups like the Beltran Leyva
       Organization the Arellano Felix Organization (AFO) and the VCF heavily
       damaged. Many of these damaged groups, such as VCF, AFO and Los Zetas
       have been forced to resort to other criminal activity such as
       kidnapping, extortion and alien smuggling to fund their operations.
       However, they have not yet undertaken large-scale terrorist attacks.
       The VCF tip-toed along the line last year, with their IED attacks, as
       did the Gulf Cartel, but these groups were careful not to use IEDs
       that were too large and the VCF never deployed the huge IED they
       threatened to. In fact, the overall use of IEDs is down dramatically
       in 2011 compared to 2010. This despite of the fact that explosives are
       readily available in Mexico and the cartels have the demonstrated
       capability to manufacture IEDs.

        

       It is also important to recognize that over the past couple years when
       the U.S. has become very heavily interested in an attack linked to the
       Mexican cartels[what do you mean by this?  that the US is super wary
       of any such attacks and investigating for them?  that the US
       population and authorities are hypersenstive to them? (i think the
       latter sounds most accurate)], that they have been able to apply
       sufficient pressure to get the Mexican government to go after the
       responsible parties without the U.S. having to resort unilateral
       action. if the US did respond to cartel aggression, what would be the
       cartel response?  what is their nuclear option? 

        

       In several recent high-profile incidents with a U.S. nexus such as the
       March 2010 murders of [link
       http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100315_mexico_security_memo_march_15_2010
       ] three people linked to the U.S.consulate in Juarez, the Sept. 30
       2010 [link
       http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20101020_falcon_lake_murder_and_mexicos_drug_wars
       ] murder of David Hartley on Falcon Lake, the Feb. 15. [link
       http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110218-update-ice-attack-mexico ]
       murder of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement special agent Jamie
       Zapata, or even the previously mentioned, July 27 threats against U.S.
       interests in Juarez, the cartel figures believed to be responsible
       have been arrested or killed. This means that the chances of a cartel
       attempting to get the U.S. involved without expecting to be impacted
       directly are probably very slim.

        

        

       As noted in [link
       http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110720-mexican-drug-wars-update-targeting-most-violent-cartels
       ] our last cartel update, we anticipate that in the coming months the
       Mexican government campaign against Los Zetas will continue to impact
       that group, as will the attacks against Los Zetas by the Gulf Cartel
       and its criminal allies. Likewise we also anticipate that the
       aforementioned Sinaloa pressure against the VCF in Juarez will
       notrelent. However, we have seen nothing that would indicate that this
       pressure will cause these groups to lash out in the form of
       large-scale terrorist attacks like those associated with Pablo
       Escobar. Even when wounded, these Mexican organizations want to
       maintain the buffer that protects them from the long arm of the U.S.

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-08-16 23:04:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/108466_re-s-weekly-for-comment-mexican-cartels-and-protection-from.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>colby.martin@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>108714</id>
    <title>Re: WG: Additional request on bio
</title>
    <description>Mrs Bhallah,


your message reached me in Van during a trip through the easter parts of Turkey.

I have expanded the bio below. Please inform me if additonal information is
needed.

all the best

Guenter Seufert




Zitat von "Seufert, Guenter" &lt;Guenter.Seufert@swp-berlin.org&gt;:

&gt;
&gt; -------------------------------------------
&gt; Von: Reva Bhalla[SMTP:BHALLA@STRATFOR.COM]
&gt; Gesendet: Donnerstag, 4. August 2011 17:04:09
&gt; An: Seufert, Guenter
&gt; Betreff: Additional request on bio
&gt; Diese Nachricht wurde automatisch von einer Regel weitergeleitet.
&gt;
&gt; Mr. Seufert,
&gt;
&gt; I hope this message finds you well!  Thank you for sending me your bio
&gt; earlier.  Compared to the others, your bio ended up being quite brief. I was
&gt; hoping to flesh it out a bit more, perhaps with some of your publications or
&gt; any other relevant information you'd be interested in including. Would you
&gt; mind sending me your CV or bullet points so I can expand on the paragraph you
&gt; sent me? Alternatively, if you have a slightly longer bio already in hand,
&gt; that would be great.
&gt;
&gt; This is what I have for you currently:
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; GÃœNTER SEUFERT (Germany)
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; Dr. GÃ¼nter Seufert is a senior researcher with the German Institute for
&gt; International and Security Affairs in Berlin, where he focuses on political
&gt; developments in Turkey and the Cyprus conflict. For several years he was
&gt; based in Istanbul working first as a resaerher and later as a correspondent
for German, Swiss and Austrian
&gt; newspapers. Additionally he carried out studies on societal, economic and
&gt; political developments in Turkey. He also taught as Visiting Associate
&gt; Professor in the Department for Turkish and Middle Eastern Studies at the
&gt; University of Cyprus in Nicosia.

Prior to Turkey's promotion as a candidate to the European Union, Günter Seufert
joined the concerned discussion in Germany at prominent places. His book Tukey,
History, Culture and Politics (in German) received excellent reviews and added
to a balanced evaluation of Turkey in Germany. The research book Civil Society
in the Grip of Nationalism which he eddited togehter with the late Stefanos
Yerasimos was one of the first publications that pointed to nationalist
currents as the most significant opponents to Turkey's EU membership in the
country itself.




&gt; I understand there may have been a bit of a delay in the response by the
&gt; Tusiad travel representative. I spoke with them this morning and have asked
&gt; that they follow up with each participant as soon as possible to finalize the
&gt; arrangements. Please let me know if you have any trouble.
&gt;
&gt; Thank you!
&gt;
&gt; All best,
&gt;
&gt; Reva
&gt;
&gt; Reva Bhalla
&gt; Director of Analysis
&gt; STRATFOR
&gt; www.stratfor.com &lt;http://www.stratfor.com/&gt;
&gt; +1 512.699.8385 (mobile)
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;    _____
&gt;
&gt; From: "Guenter Seufert" &lt;Guenter.Seufert@swp-berlin.org&gt;
&gt; To: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; Sent: Thursday, July 21, 2011 2:17:49 AM
&gt; Subject: AW: Next Steps for TUSIAD-STRATFOR Oct. 6 event in Istanbul
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; Dear Mrs. Bhalla,
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; Thank you for the outline of the simulation and please find below a short
&gt; version of the biography you asked for.
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; I am looking forward to hear from you again,
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; Kind regards, GÃ¼nter Seufert
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; Dr. GÃ¼nter Seufert is a senior researcher with the German Institute for
&gt; International and Security Affairs in Berlin, where he focuses on political
&gt; developments in Turkey and the Cyprus conflict. For several years he was
&gt; based in Istanbul working as a correspondent for German, Swiss and Austrian
&gt; newspapers. Additionally he carried out studies on societal, economic and
&gt; political developments in Turkey. He also taught as Visiting Associate
&gt; Professor in the Department for Turkish and Middle Eastern Studies at the
&gt; University of Cyprus in Nicosia.
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; Dr. GÃ¼nter Seufert
&gt;
&gt; SWP Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
&gt; Deutsches Institut fÃ¼r Internationale Politik und Sicherheit
&gt;
&gt; Ludwigkirchplatz 3 - 4
&gt;
&gt; 10719 Berlin
&gt;
&gt; Telefon: +49 30 88007-276
&gt;
&gt; Fax:      +49 30 88007-100
&gt;
&gt; e-mail: guenter.seufert@swp-berlin.org &lt;mailto:peter.becker@swp-berlin.org&gt;
&gt;
&gt; www.swp-berlin.org
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; Von: Reva Bhalla [mailto:bhalla@stratfor.com]
&gt; Gesendet: Donnerstag, 7. Juli 2011 19:07
&gt; An: Seufert, Guenter
&gt; Betreff: Next Steps for TUSIAD-STRATFOR Oct. 6 event in Istanbul
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; Dear Mr. Seufert,
&gt;
&gt; We are very excited to have you join STRATFOR and TUSIAD in commemorating
&gt; TUSIAD's 40th anniverary this fall in Istanbul! We are still about three
&gt; months away from the Oct. 6 event, but I wanted to provide a bit more
&gt; information on the simulation itself so you know what to expect.
&gt;
&gt; As the past several years can attest, Turkey is a dynamic country with rising
&gt; influence in the Middle East, Europe and Caucasus regions. In each of these
&gt; areas, energy security plays a vital role in the geopolitics of the countries
&gt; in question. The purpose of this simulation is to look forward into the next
&gt; decade and explore the challenges and opportunities Turkey and its neighbors
&gt; could encounter in pursuing their energy interests abroad.
&gt;
&gt; The main event will consist of a simulation (televised in Turkey) that will
&gt; play out over a 2012-2022 timeframe. The simulation will be broken into two
&gt; sessions (one in the morning and one in the afternoon of Oct. 6,) with the
&gt; first focusing on the Middle East and the second focusing on Europe and the
&gt; Caucasus region. The sessions will include participants from Turkey, the
&gt; United States, Russia, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iraq and
&gt; Iran (one representative per country.) As a representative of Germany, you
&gt; will be asked to speak on behalf of your country in an open and direct
&gt; dialogue. The moderator will present realistic scenarios throughout the
&gt; session to which each country representative will respond with a move.
&gt; Examples of a move could include anything from funding/building pipelines
&gt; through certain regions, shifting energy suppliers, requesting aid, etc.
&gt; Countries can either work together or alone in pursuing their respective
&gt; interests during the simulation.
&gt;
&gt; The good news is that there will be very minimal preparation required for
&gt; your part. The simulation will be live and interactive, thereby precluding
&gt; any need for prepared speeches. In early September, STRATFOR will distribute
&gt; a brief for all the participating countries that will allow you to
&gt; familiarize yourself with the energy politics of each country. Prior to the
&gt; event, you will also have the first â€˜triggerâ€™ for the simulation
&gt; beginning in the year 2012 that will allow you to plan your first move. From
&gt; there, the simulation takes on a life of its own as the moderator guides the
&gt; discussion based on each participantâ€™s move. The simulation will be broken
&gt; up into two-year intervals over the decade, allowing each participant to make
&gt; at least one move per two-year-interval. I will walk each of you through a
&gt; mock scenario closer to the event so everyone if clear on how the simulation
&gt; is to play out.
&gt;
&gt; Next Steps:
&gt;
&gt; 1.  Your contact information has been submitted to a TUSIAD representative,
&gt; who will be managing your flight and hotel accommodations for the event.
&gt;
&gt; 2.  By July 14, please send me your biography. For marketing purposes, we
&gt; would like to keep each bio limited to a single, yet substantial paragraph.
&gt;
&gt; 3.  In early September, you will receive an information packet with the
&gt; political energy briefs for each country, the bios of each participant and
&gt; the finalized agenda for the event.
&gt; If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach me by phone or
&gt; email. I am very much looking forward to working with you in the lead-up to
&gt; this event!
&gt;
&gt; All my best,
&gt;
&gt; Reva
&gt;
&gt; Reva Bhalla
&gt; Director of Analysis
&gt; STRATFOR
&gt; www.stratfor.com
&gt; +1 512.699.8385 (mobile)
&gt;
&gt;


Dr. Günter Seufert
Deidesheimer Str. 1
14197 Berlin
0049-176-2320 2926
</description>
    <date>2011-08-09 13:25:42</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-20 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/108714_re-wg-additional-request-on-bio-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>gseufert@joshua-seufert.de</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>108938</id>
    <title>Re: S-weekly for comment:  Mexican Cartels and Protection from the
	Long Arm of Uncle Sam
</title>
    <description>   I considered the start of the "war" as started by Calderon when he
   escalated beyond the conflict started by Fox.  The way I understood it Fox
   sent in the military to restore order (like New Orleans after Katrina) at
   a time when 75 murders in Nuevo Larado (2003) was seen as a lot. Calderon
   made the decision to use the military extensively in the in the war and
   directly against the cartels. You said below he had no choice but to
   follow Fox's footsteps because the violence didn't subside, but I would
   argue it at least some if not most of the blame for the escalation is in
   Calderon's lap.  If his goal had been to truly stop the violence and get
   back to the business of making money, what could he have done
   differently?  Is that the same answer as what he would like to do now?  I
   understand the box had been opened and things weren't going back to the
   way they were, but a lot of things would be better than it is now.  Is
   there an end to the current violence and if so, when?   

   On 8/16/11 7:49 PM, scott stewart wrote:

         Then isn't the question why did Calderon start this war in the first
         place?  did he miscalculate the consequences?  if so i hope he burns
         in hell for that sort of short-sighted stupidity

     He didn't start the war.  The Sinaloa cartel did.  Sinaloa's 2005
     invasion of Nuevo Laredo (led by a young BLO gunman named Edgar Valdez
     Villarreal (La Barbie) and his group of hitmen called Los Negros)
     started an incredibly violent war there that caused then-President
     Vicente Fox to send in the Army. Calderon had no option but continue
     Fox's policy when the violence did not subside. And then Sinaloa
     attacked their former allies the VCF in Juarez and then launched a proxy
     war in Tijuana, so there was no going back for Calderon. 

     The next President won't have much choice either. 

     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110614-new-mexican-president-same-cartel-war

     From: Colby Martin &lt;colby.martin@stratfor.com&gt;
     Reply-To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: Tue, 16 Aug 2011 16:04:33 -0500
     To: &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: S-weekly for comment: Mexican Cartels and Protection from
     the Long Arm of Uncle Sam

         hen isn't the question why did Calderon start this war in the first
         place?  did he miscalculate the consequences?  if so i hope he burns
         in hell for that sort of short-sighted stupidity

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-08-17 04:57:22</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/108938_re-s-weekly-for-comment-mexican-cartels-and-protection-from.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>colby.martin@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>109733</id>
    <title>AW: Additional request on bio
</title>
    <description>   Dear Mrs. Bhalla,

    

   unfortunately I have to withdraw the positive answer I gave you regarding
   the conference on 6 October due to other and unforeseen obligations. I am
   however in the situation to provide you with two alternative personalities
   who might be much better equipped to fulfill the role as `players for
   Germany' in the strategic game on energy.

    

   The first name I would like to mention is Dr. Olive Geden a colleague of
   mine at the German Institute for Foreign and Security Affars.

    

   http://www.swp-berlin.org/en/scientist-detail/profile/oliver_geden.html

    

   The name of the second candidate reads Frank Umbach a high profile expert
   at the Institute for European Security Studies in Munich.

    

   http://www.cess-net.eu/content/view/46/68/lang,english/

    

   I am asking for your foregiveness and wish the conference good success.

    

   Kind regards, Gu:nter Seufert

    

   Dr. Gu:nter Seufert

   SWP Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
   Deutsches Institut fu:r Internationale Politik und Sicherheit

   Ludwigkirchplatz 3 - 4

   10719 Berlin

   Telefon: +49 30 88007-276

   Fax:      +49 30 88007-100

   e-mail: guenter.seufert@swp-berlin.org

   www.swp-berlin.org

    

    

   Von: Reva Bhalla [mailto:bhalla@stratfor.com]
   Gesendet: Donnerstag, 4. August 2011 17:04
   An: Seufert, Guenter
   Betreff: Additional request on bio

    

   Mr. Seufert,

   I hope this message finds you well!  Thank you for sending me your bio
   earlier.  Compared to the others, your bio ended up being quite brief. I
   was hoping to flesh it out a bit more, perhaps with some of your
   publications or any other relevant information you'd be interested in
   including. Would you mind sending me your CV or bullet points so I can
   expand on the paragraph you sent me? Alternatively, if you have a slightly
   longer bio already in hand, that would be great.

   This is what I have for you currently:

   GU:NTER SEUFERT (Germany)

    

   Dr. Gu:nter Seufert is a senior researcher with the German Institute for
   International and Security Affairs in Berlin, where he focuses on
   political developments in Turkey and the Cyprus conflict. For several
   years he was based in Istanbul working as a correspondent for German,
   Swiss and Austrian newspapers. Additionally he carried out studies on
   societal, economic and political developments in Turkey. He also taught as
   Visiting Associate Professor in the Department for Turkish and Middle
   Eastern Studies at the University of Cyprus in Nicosia.

   I understand there may have been a bit of a delay in the response by the
   Tusiad travel representative. I spoke with them this morning and have
   asked that they follow up with each participant as soon as possible to
   finalize the arrangements. Please let me know if you have any trouble.

   Thank you!

   All best,

   Reva

   Reva Bhalla
   Director of Analysis
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
   +1 512.699.8385 (mobile)

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Guenter Seufert" &lt;Guenter.Seufert@swp-berlin.org&gt;
   To: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, July 21, 2011 2:17:49 AM
   Subject: AW: Next Steps for TUSIAD-STRATFOR Oct. 6 event in Istanbul

   Dear Mrs. Bhalla,

    

   Thank you for the outline of the simulation and please find below a short
   version of the biography you asked for.

    

   I am looking forward to hear from you again,

    

   Kind regards, Gu:nter Seufert

    

    

   Dr. Gu:nter Seufert is a senior researcher with the German Institute for
   International and Security Affairs in Berlin, where he focuses on
   political developments in Turkey and the Cyprus conflict. For several
   years he was based in Istanbul working as a correspondent for German,
   Swiss and Austrian newspapers. Additionally he carried out studies on
   societal, economic and political developments in Turkey. He also taught as
   Visiting Associate Professor in the Department for Turkish and Middle
   Eastern Studies at the University of Cyprus in Nicosia.

    

    

   Dr. Gu:nter Seufert

   SWP Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
   Deutsches Institut fu:r Internationale Politik und Sicherheit 

   Ludwigkirchplatz 3 - 4

   10719 Berlin

   Telefon: +49 30 88007-276

   Fax:      +49 30 88007-100

   e-mail: guenter.seufert@swp-berlin.org

   www.swp-berlin.org

    

    

   Von: Reva Bhalla [mailto:bhalla@stratfor.com]
   Gesendet: Donnerstag, 7. Juli 2011 19:07
   An: Seufert, Guenter
   Betreff: Next Steps for TUSIAD-STRATFOR Oct. 6 event in Istanbul

    

   Dear Mr. Seufert,
    
   We are very excited to have you join STRATFOR and TUSIAD in commemorating
   TUSIAD's 40th anniverary this fall in Istanbul! We are still about three
   months away from the Oct. 6 event, but I wanted to provide a bit more
   information on the simulation itself so you know what to expect.
    
   As the past several years can attest, Turkey is a dynamic country with
   rising influence in the Middle East, Europe and Caucasus regions. In each
   of these areas, energy security plays a vital role in the geopolitics of
   the countries in question. The purpose of this simulation is to look
   forward into the next decade and explore the challenges and opportunities
   Turkey and its neighbors could encounter in pursuing their energy
   interests abroad.

   The main event will consist of a simulation (televised in Turkey) that
   will play out over a 2012-2022 timeframe. The simulation will be broken
   into two sessions (one in the morning and one in the afternoon of Oct. 6,)
   with the first focusing on the Middle East and the second focusing on
   Europe and the Caucasus region. The sessions will include participants
   from Turkey, the United States, Russia, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan,
   Georgia, Iraq and Iran (one representative per country.) As a
   representative of Germany, you will be asked to speak on behalf of your
   country in an open and direct dialogue. The moderator will present
   realistic scenarios throughout the session to which each country
   representative will respond with a move. Examples of a move could include
   anything from funding/building pipelines through certain regions, shifting
   energy suppliers, requesting aid, etc. Countries can either work together
   or alone in pursuing their respective interests during the simulation.

   The good news is that there will be very minimal preparation required for
   your part. The simulation will be live and interactive, thereby precluding
   any need for prepared speeches. In early September, STRATFOR will
   distribute a brief for all the participating countries that will allow you
   to familiarize yourself with the energy politics of each country. Prior to
   the event, you will also have the first `trigger' for the simulation
   beginning in the year 2012 that will allow you to plan your first move.
   From there, the simulation takes on a life of its own as the moderator
   guides the discussion based on each participant's move. The simulation
   will be broken up into two-year intervals over the decade, allowing each
   participant to make at least one move per two-year-interval. I will walk
   each of you through a mock scenario closer to the event so everyone if
   clear on how the simulation is to play out.

   Next Steps:

   1.  Your contact information has been submitted to a TUSIAD
   representative, who will be managing your flight and hotel accommodations
   for the event. 

   2.  By July 14, please send me your biography. For marketing purposes, we
   would like to keep each bio limited to a single, yet substantial
   paragraph.

   3.  In early September, you will receive an information packet with the
   political energy briefs for each country, the bios of each participant and
   the finalized agenda for the event.
   If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach me by phone or
   email. I am very much looking forward to working with you in the lead-up
   to this event!
    
   All my best,

   Reva

   Reva Bhalla
   Director of Analysis
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
   +1 512.699.8385 (mobile)
</description>
    <date>2011-08-19 14:32:37</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-20 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/109733_aw-additional-request-on-bio-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Guenter.Seufert@swp-berlin.org</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>110395</id>
    <title>Re: AW: Additional request on bio
</title>
    <description>   I believe I tracked down Mr. Umbach's contact info. Thank you!

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Guenter Seufert" &lt;Guenter.Seufert@swp-berlin.org&gt;
   Sent: Friday, August 19, 2011 11:28:49 AM
   Subject: Re: AW: Additional request on bio

   Dear Mr. Seufert,

   I'm very sorry to hear that you will be unable to join us. Do you have the
   contact info for Mr. Umbach?

   Thank you,

   Reva Bhalla
   Director of Analysis
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
   +1 512.699.8385 (mobile)

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Guenter Seufert" &lt;Guenter.Seufert@swp-berlin.org&gt;
   To: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Friday, August 19, 2011 7:32:37 AM
   Subject: AW: Additional request on bio

   Dear Mrs. Bhalla,

    

   unfortunately I have to withdraw the positive answer I gave you regarding
   the conference on 6 October due to other and unforeseen obligations. I am
   however in the situation to provide you with two alternative personalities
   who might be much better equipped to fulfill the role as a**players for
   Germanya** in the strategic game on energy.

    

   The first name I would like to mention is Dr. Olive Geden a colleague of
   mine at the German Institute for Foreign and Security Affars.

    

   http://www.swp-berlin.org/en/scientist-detail/profile/oliver_geden.html

    

   The name of the second candidate reads Frank Umbach a high profile expert
   at the Institute for European Security Studies in Munich.

    

   http://www.cess-net.eu/content/view/46/68/lang,english/

    

   I am asking for your foregiveness and wish the conference good success.

    

   Kind regards, GA 1/4nter Seufert

    

   Dr. GA 1/4nter Seufert

   SWP Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
   Deutsches Institut fA 1/4r Internationale Politik und Sicherheit

   Ludwigkirchplatz 3 - 4

   10719 Berlin

   Telefon: +49 30 88007-276

   Fax:      +49 30 88007-100

   e-mail: guenter.seufert@swp-berlin.org

   www.swp-berlin.org

    

    

   Von: Reva Bhalla [mailto:bhalla@stratfor.com]
   Gesendet: Donnerstag, 4. August 2011 17:04
   An: Seufert, Guenter
   Betreff: Additional request on bio

    

   Mr. Seufert,

   I hope this message finds you well!  Thank you for sending me your bio
   earlier.  Compared to the others, your bio ended up being quite brief. I
   was hoping to flesh it out a bit more, perhaps with some of your
   publications or any other relevant information you'd be interested in
   including. Would you mind sending me your CV or bullet points so I can
   expand on the paragraph you sent me? Alternatively, if you have a slightly
   longer bio already in hand, that would be great.

   This is what I have for you currently:

   GA*NTER SEUFERT (Germany)

    

   Dr. GA 1/4nter Seufert is a senior researcher with the German Institute
   for International and Security Affairs in Berlin, where he focuses on
   political developments in Turkey and the Cyprus conflict. For several
   years he was based in Istanbul working as a correspondent for German,
   Swiss and Austrian newspapers. Additionally he carried out studies on
   societal, economic and political developments in Turkey. He also taught as
   Visiting Associate Professor in the Department for Turkish and Middle
   Eastern Studies at the University of Cyprus in Nicosia.

   I understand there may have been a bit of a delay in the response by the
   Tusiad travel representative. I spoke with them this morning and have
   asked that they follow up with each participant as soon as possible to
   finalize the arrangements. Please let me know if you have any trouble.

   Thank you!

   All best,

   Reva

   Reva Bhalla
   Director of Analysis
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
   +1 512.699.8385 (mobile)

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Guenter Seufert" &lt;Guenter.Seufert@swp-berlin.org&gt;
   To: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, July 21, 2011 2:17:49 AM
   Subject: AW: Next Steps for TUSIAD-STRATFOR Oct. 6 event in Istanbul

   Dear Mrs. Bhalla,

    

   Thank you for the outline of the simulation and please find below a short
   version of the biography you asked for.

    

   I am looking forward to hear from you again,

    

   Kind regards, GA 1/4nter Seufert

    

    

   Dr. GA 1/4nter Seufert is a senior researcher with the German Institute
   for International and Security Affairs in Berlin, where he focuses on
   political developments in Turkey and the Cyprus conflict. For several
   years he was based in Istanbul working as a correspondent for German,
   Swiss and Austrian newspapers. Additionally he carried out studies on
   societal, economic and political developments in Turkey. He also taught as
   Visiting Associate Professor in the Department for Turkish and Middle
   Eastern Studies at the University of Cyprus in Nicosia.

    

    

   Dr. GA 1/4nter Seufert

   SWP Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
   Deutsches Institut fA 1/4r Internationale Politik und Sicherheit

   Ludwigkirchplatz 3 - 4

   10719 Berlin

   Telefon: +49 30 88007-276

   Fax:      +49 30 88007-100

   e-mail: guenter.seufert@swp-berlin.org

   www.swp-berlin.org

    

    

   Von: Reva Bhalla [mailto:bhalla@stratfor.com]
   Gesendet: Donnerstag, 7. Juli 2011 19:07
   An: Seufert, Guenter
   Betreff: Next Steps for TUSIAD-STRATFOR Oct. 6 event in Istanbul

    

   Dear Mr. Seufert,
    
   We are very excited to have you join STRATFOR and TUSIAD in commemorating
   TUSIAD's 40th anniverary this fall in Istanbul! We are still about three
   months away from the Oct. 6 event, but I wanted to provide a bit more
   information on the simulation itself so you know what to expect.
    
   As the past several years can attest, Turkey is a dynamic country with
   rising influence in the Middle East, Europe and Caucasus regions. In each
   of these areas, energy security plays a vital role in the geopolitics of
   the countries in question. The purpose of this simulation is to look
   forward into the next decade and explore the challenges and opportunities
   Turkey and its neighbors could encounter in pursuing their energy
   interests abroad.

   The main event will consist of a simulation (televised in Turkey) that
   will play out over a 2012-2022 timeframe. The simulation will be broken
   into two sessions (one in the morning and one in the afternoon of Oct. 6,)
   with the first focusing on the Middle East and the second focusing on
   Europe and the Caucasus region. The sessions will include participants
   from Turkey, the United States, Russia, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan,
   Georgia, Iraq and Iran (one representative per country.) As a
   representative of Germany, you will be asked to speak on behalf of your
   country in an open and direct dialogue. The moderator will present
   realistic scenarios throughout the session to which each country
   representative will respond with a move. Examples of a move could include
   anything from funding/building pipelines through certain regions, shifting
   energy suppliers, requesting aid, etc. Countries can either work together
   or alone in pursuing their respective interests during the simulation.

   The good news is that there will be very minimal preparation required for
   your part. The simulation will be live and interactive, thereby precluding
   any need for prepared speeches. In early September, STRATFOR will
   distribute a brief for all the participating countries that will allow you
   to familiarize yourself with the energy politics of each country. Prior to
   the event, you will also have the first a**triggera** for the simulation
   beginning in the year 2012 that will allow you to plan your first move.
   From there, the simulation takes on a life of its own as the moderator
   guides the discussion based on each participanta**s move. The simulation
   will be broken up into two-year intervals over the decade, allowing each
   participant to make at least one move per two-year-interval. I will walk
   each of you through a mock scenario closer to the event so everyone if
   clear on how the simulation is to play out.

   Next Steps:

   1.  Your contact information has been submitted to a TUSIAD
   representative, who will be managing your flight and hotel accommodations
   for the event. 

   2.  By July 14, please send me your biography. For marketing purposes, we
   would like to keep each bio limited to a single, yet substantial
   paragraph.

   3.  In early September, you will receive an information packet with the
   political energy briefs for each country, the bios of each participant and
   the finalized agenda for the event.
   If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach me by phone or
   email. I am very much looking forward to working with you in the lead-up
   to this event!
    
   All my best,

   Reva

   Reva Bhalla
   Director of Analysis
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
   +1 512.699.8385 (mobile)
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-20 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/110395_re-aw-additional-request-on-bio-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>guenter.seufert@swp-berlin.org</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>110493</id>
    <title>Re: AW: Additional request on bio
</title>
    <description>   Dear Mr. Seufert,

   I'm very sorry to hear that you will be unable to join us. Do you have the
   contact info for Mr. Umbach?

   Thank you,

   Reva Bhalla
   Director of Analysis
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
   +1 512.699.8385 (mobile)

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Guenter Seufert" &lt;Guenter.Seufert@swp-berlin.org&gt;
   To: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Friday, August 19, 2011 7:32:37 AM
   Subject: AW: Additional request on bio

   Dear Mrs. Bhalla,

    

   unfortunately I have to withdraw the positive answer I gave you regarding
   the conference on 6 October due to other and unforeseen obligations. I am
   however in the situation to provide you with two alternative personalities
   who might be much better equipped to fulfill the role as a**players for
   Germanya** in the strategic game on energy.

    

   The first name I would like to mention is Dr. Olive Geden a colleague of
   mine at the German Institute for Foreign and Security Affars.

    

   http://www.swp-berlin.org/en/scientist-detail/profile/oliver_geden.html

    

   The name of the second candidate reads Frank Umbach a high profile expert
   at the Institute for European Security Studies in Munich.

    

   http://www.cess-net.eu/content/view/46/68/lang,english/

    

   I am asking for your foregiveness and wish the conference good success.

    

   Kind regards, GA 1/4nter Seufert

    

   Dr. GA 1/4nter Seufert

   SWP Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
   Deutsches Institut fA 1/4r Internationale Politik und Sicherheit

   Ludwigkirchplatz 3 - 4

   10719 Berlin

   Telefon: +49 30 88007-276

   Fax:      +49 30 88007-100

   e-mail: guenter.seufert@swp-berlin.org

   www.swp-berlin.org

    

    

   Von: Reva Bhalla [mailto:bhalla@stratfor.com]
   Gesendet: Donnerstag, 4. August 2011 17:04
   An: Seufert, Guenter
   Betreff: Additional request on bio

    

   Mr. Seufert,

   I hope this message finds you well!  Thank you for sending me your bio
   earlier.  Compared to the others, your bio ended up being quite brief. I
   was hoping to flesh it out a bit more, perhaps with some of your
   publications or any other relevant information you'd be interested in
   including. Would you mind sending me your CV or bullet points so I can
   expand on the paragraph you sent me? Alternatively, if you have a slightly
   longer bio already in hand, that would be great.

   This is what I have for you currently:

   GA*NTER SEUFERT (Germany)

    

   Dr. GA 1/4nter Seufert is a senior researcher with the German Institute
   for International and Security Affairs in Berlin, where he focuses on
   political developments in Turkey and the Cyprus conflict. For several
   years he was based in Istanbul working as a correspondent for German,
   Swiss and Austrian newspapers. Additionally he carried out studies on
   societal, economic and political developments in Turkey. He also taught as
   Visiting Associate Professor in the Department for Turkish and Middle
   Eastern Studies at the University of Cyprus in Nicosia.

   I understand there may have been a bit of a delay in the response by the
   Tusiad travel representative. I spoke with them this morning and have
   asked that they follow up with each participant as soon as possible to
   finalize the arrangements. Please let me know if you have any trouble.

   Thank you!

   All best,

   Reva

   Reva Bhalla
   Director of Analysis
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
   +1 512.699.8385 (mobile)

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Guenter Seufert" &lt;Guenter.Seufert@swp-berlin.org&gt;
   To: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, July 21, 2011 2:17:49 AM
   Subject: AW: Next Steps for TUSIAD-STRATFOR Oct. 6 event in Istanbul

   Dear Mrs. Bhalla,

    

   Thank you for the outline of the simulation and please find below a short
   version of the biography you asked for.

    

   I am looking forward to hear from you again,

    

   Kind regards, GA 1/4nter Seufert

    

    

   Dr. GA 1/4nter Seufert is a senior researcher with the German Institute
   for International and Security Affairs in Berlin, where he focuses on
   political developments in Turkey and the Cyprus conflict. For several
   years he was based in Istanbul working as a correspondent for German,
   Swiss and Austrian newspapers. Additionally he carried out studies on
   societal, economic and political developments in Turkey. He also taught as
   Visiting Associate Professor in the Department for Turkish and Middle
   Eastern Studies at the University of Cyprus in Nicosia.

    

    

   Dr. GA 1/4nter Seufert

   SWP Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
   Deutsches Institut fA 1/4r Internationale Politik und Sicherheit

   Ludwigkirchplatz 3 - 4

   10719 Berlin

   Telefon: +49 30 88007-276

   Fax:      +49 30 88007-100

   e-mail: guenter.seufert@swp-berlin.org

   www.swp-berlin.org

    

    

   Von: Reva Bhalla [mailto:bhalla@stratfor.com]
   Gesendet: Donnerstag, 7. Juli 2011 19:07
   An: Seufert, Guenter
   Betreff: Next Steps for TUSIAD-STRATFOR Oct. 6 event in Istanbul

    

   Dear Mr. Seufert,
    
   We are very excited to have you join STRATFOR and TUSIAD in commemorating
   TUSIAD's 40th anniverary this fall in Istanbul! We are still about three
   months away from the Oct. 6 event, but I wanted to provide a bit more
   information on the simulation itself so you know what to expect.
    
   As the past several years can attest, Turkey is a dynamic country with
   rising influence in the Middle East, Europe and Caucasus regions. In each
   of these areas, energy security plays a vital role in the geopolitics of
   the countries in question. The purpose of this simulation is to look
   forward into the next decade and explore the challenges and opportunities
   Turkey and its neighbors could encounter in pursuing their energy
   interests abroad.

   The main event will consist of a simulation (televised in Turkey) that
   will play out over a 2012-2022 timeframe. The simulation will be broken
   into two sessions (one in the morning and one in the afternoon of Oct. 6,)
   with the first focusing on the Middle East and the second focusing on
   Europe and the Caucasus region. The sessions will include participants
   from Turkey, the United States, Russia, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan,
   Georgia, Iraq and Iran (one representative per country.) As a
   representative of Germany, you will be asked to speak on behalf of your
   country in an open and direct dialogue. The moderator will present
   realistic scenarios throughout the session to which each country
   representative will respond with a move. Examples of a move could include
   anything from funding/building pipelines through certain regions, shifting
   energy suppliers, requesting aid, etc. Countries can either work together
   or alone in pursuing their respective interests during the simulation.

   The good news is that there will be very minimal preparation required for
   your part. The simulation will be live and interactive, thereby precluding
   any need for prepared speeches. In early September, STRATFOR will
   distribute a brief for all the participating countries that will allow you
   to familiarize yourself with the energy politics of each country. Prior to
   the event, you will also have the first a**triggera** for the simulation
   beginning in the year 2012 that will allow you to plan your first move.
   From there, the simulation takes on a life of its own as the moderator
   guides the discussion based on each participanta**s move. The simulation
   will be broken up into two-year intervals over the decade, allowing each
   participant to make at least one move per two-year-interval. I will walk
   each of you through a mock scenario closer to the event so everyone if
   clear on how the simulation is to play out.

   Next Steps:

   1.  Your contact information has been submitted to a TUSIAD
   representative, who will be managing your flight and hotel accommodations
   for the event. 

   2.  By July 14, please send me your biography. For marketing purposes, we
   would like to keep each bio limited to a single, yet substantial
   paragraph.

   3.  In early September, you will receive an information packet with the
   political energy briefs for each country, the bios of each participant and
   the finalized agenda for the event.
   If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach me by phone or
   email. I am very much looking forward to working with you in the lead-up
   to this event!
    
   All my best,

   Reva

   Reva Bhalla
   Director of Analysis
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
   +1 512.699.8385 (mobile)
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-20 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/110493_re-aw-additional-request-on-bio-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>guenter.seufert@swp-berlin.org</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>113138</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT - AUSTRALIA/CHINA - Iron Ore Prices - via CN65
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE: via CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: A
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

     Iron Ore Prices

     Further mine earlier, which quotes paper for Indian or
     Brazilian 63.5/63% delivered China.

     Please note the following report on Physical prices, which
     shows paper is lagging physical by quite a margin.

     This report also underscores 'with facts' my ongoing views
     as to The reality of what is happening in China with steel
     production, contrary to the Rhetoric going around about a
     Chinese Slowdown.

     Bad news for China and all steel producers struggling to
     pass on margins due to increasing steel production costs
     but very good news for all Iron ore producers.

     PHYSICAL MARKET

     The physical market remained firm on Wednesday, with
     activity improved and trades/tenders at around last done
     levels. Platts reported Australian 61.5% Fe Pilbara fines
     trading at $178.50/dmt CFR Qingdao compared to $178/dmt
     CFR North China on Tuesday.

     Meanwhile, TSI reported Brazilian 63.5/63% Fe fines
     and 65/64% Fe fines trading at $183/dmt and $193.50/dmt
     (CFR China) respectively.

     Indian 63.5/63% Fe fines were also reported done at
     $189-$190/dmt. The TSI, Platts and Metal Bulletin indices
     were all marked a touch higher:

     TSI 62% (3.5% Al):   $178.30 (up $0.40)       
     PLATTS 62%:   $180.25 (up $0.50)             
     MBIOI 62%:   $178.31 (up $0.54)
     TSI 62% (2.0% Al):   $180.80 (up $0.40)

     Spot iron ore prices held firm on Wednesday, as strong
     steel output in top producer China kept buying interest
     for the raw material intact, with tight Indian supplies
     lending support, reports Reuters. An iron ore trader in
     Singapore, citing factors supporting prices, said "The
     Chinese continue to produce steel like crazy andIndian
     supplies are extremely tight at the moment, " Reuters added.

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19
</description>
    <date>2011-08-25 12:47:14</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/113138_-alpha-insight-australia-china-iron-ore-prices-via-cn65-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ben.preisler@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>115424</id>
    <title>[alpha] Sleepers on my mind
</title>
    <description>

I've been mulling over something told to me about two years ago by 
either a US Secret Service agent or Deputy US Marshal about intelligence on two 
possible aQ sleepers that may have come into the U.S.
via a fishing vessel in New Orleans.   The two then vanished.  No names were known. 
Suspicions at the time focused on a mission directed former POTUS, since they ARE NOT afforded
USSS/Counter Sniper coverage, however, their residences are covered by TrapWire 
(intuitive video surveillance.)   

It would be a very nice touch for OBL to have sent the suspects in for a long-term mission, 
knowing he was going to eventually be killed.  I would have done the same.  Maybe for the 9-11 Anniversary?  

The two men stick in my crawl.  

Perhaps the suspects were a two-man sniper team focused on a U.S. HVT afforded 
zero or portal-to-portal protection could be very successful. The Federal Reserve Chairman, 
a US Supreme Court Justice, Speaker of the House, or a Jewish CEO of a Fortune 50 are 
very easy to kill and have zero to basic protection. 

There is zero chatter because the operatives are already here.  No need to communicate.  Nobody to 
communicate with, mission tasked out.  

Just a thought.   

Fred
</description>
    <date>2011-08-30 03:07:34</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/115424_-alpha-sleepers-on-my-mind-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>116613</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT - CN65 Re: DISPATCH PROPOSAL/DISCUSSION - The
 problems with Cosco and its	bigger implications
</title>
    <description>   **Source helped me to flesh out some of the comments on the piece and
   says:
   Please see my comments in red.  I know my stuff here.  I specialised in
   shipping law at Oxford, and I have been talking to my shipbroker about the
   matter in the last few days.  My shipbroker is in one of the biggest
   broking firms in the world, and he specialises in capesize dry bulk.  I
   reckon he know's his stuff also.
   SOURCE: via CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: A
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

           Navios Maritime partners is currently in the midst of a contract

           dispute with China's shipping company, Cosco.  The recent dispute

           has resulting in the seizure of at least three Cosco ships in

           various ports worldwide.

           Cosco is accused of withholding charter payments for ships that it

           chartered long-term for upwards of $80,000 per day during the

           dry-bulk shipping boom in 2008.  The current average spot-market

           rates to charter capesize vessels are a little under $17,000.

           Moody's has said that any downward negotiation of contracted
           charter

           rates would negatively affect dry bulk shipowners worldwide.

           According to Moody's any renegotiation of contracts could set a
           bad

           precedent for other Chinese companies.*drop the moody's reference
           -

           irrelevant*  I think Moody's are right.  It adds risk for all the
           companies that build and own ships but bareboat charter them.
            You've seen the stats I've sent you on the number and total dwt
           of the capesize fleet world wide.  A large number of these are on
           bareboat charter.  That is a real risk for the financial viability
           of the shipping sector, especially given that capesize rates are
           close to opex at the moment.

           Why does this matter?

           According to intelligence gathered from the coal industry that

           frequently uses Cosco's services, one of the most fundamental
           points

           about shipping law is that it is "black letter law", meaning that

           the contracts are inviolable.*er...its a nice thought but these

           rates change all the time -- what's important is that they not

           change during a sail*  Charter rates vary daily on the spot market
           for time charters, that is chartering a ship to take a stem from
           one port to another.  They are fixed at the time the ship is
           contracted.  However, the ships Cosco chartered are bareboat
           charters, not time charters, and the charter rates were set years
           ago for the duration of the charter.  If you don't own your own
           ships, but bareboat charter them, you have two types of risk:
           business risk in getting sufficient stems and back loads to make
           the ship profitable on opex; and the risk that the spread between
           your bareboat charter rate and the time charter rate doesn't move
           against you as it did in this case with Cosco.  They're screwed.

           For China in particular this could have important implications

           beyond just their shipping industry, and could affect Chinese

           sovereign risk.  Some foreign commodity traders have already begun

           to refuse sourcing requests from Chinese *shipping? *companies to

           protect their reputations.*am i understanding that? they're
           refusing

           to use chinese ships?*  The broader sovereign risk issue is why
           buyers like Rizhao are being locked out of the iron ore market in
           Australia, as well as a host of smaller companies which have not
           defaulted, but which are assessed as possibly likely to do so.  On
           the shipping front, the concern I mentioned came from the
           representative of a Chinese buyer who has chartered Cosco to take
           a stem from Gladstone to Xiamen is real.  If Cosco's ship turns up
           and is arrested, the buyer is liable to the seller for the failure
           to meet the terms of the contract and present a ship "ready to
           load" Gladstone.  They may not charter Cosco again until they get
           a clean bill of health.  If other Chinese shippers take this
           approach, then there will be real queries in the market about
           Chinese ship operators.  In the iron ore market the sellers are
           also selling C&amp;F, so why would they take the risk on a Chinese
           shipping company when they would be liable to the buyer if the
           shipment doesn't arrive?

           Both iron ore and coal companies already extract a "China
           premium",

           costing China daily for every shipment they receive. *what's the

           premium on? the commodities? the shipping rates?*  Not openly
           discussed, but probably a couple of dollars a tonne on iron ore.
            See my previous estimation of total cost. These issues

           started to really become apparent in 2009 in both the coal and
           iron

           ore industries.  And one source in the industry says that these

           issues probably cost China over a billion dollars in additional
           iron

           ore prices each year.*if its in the commodites themselves i'm not

           sure what this has to do with shipping?*  It is all about broad
           perceptions of sovereign risk.

           This example is just one of many that exhibits a growing wariness
           of

           doing business with China and enforcing legal agreements with

           Chinese companies is notoriously hard according to lawyers engaged

           in the business.

           However, if China can continue to sweeten deals with cheap
           capital,

           there are many international businesses that will continue to
           assume

           the risks, until the stakes outweigh the benefits.

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19
</description>
    <date>2011-09-01 14:25:14</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/116613_-alpha-insight-cn65-re-dispatch-proposal-discussion-the.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ben.preisler@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>117802</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - CZECH REPUBLIC - BMD, US, Russia,
 military &amp; more - CZ103 &amp; CZ104
</title>
    <description>   yea, the CzRs are nervous about someone like McFaul messing it up.
   btw, he was at the dinner I went to last night... the Uzbeks were falling
   all over themselves to speak with him.
   On 9/2/11 2:01 PM, Eugene Chausovsky wrote:

     This is fascinating stuff. You can how much the C. Europeans want the
     Intermarium to materialize, all with the explicit backing of the US.

     The question is how willing with the US be to go along with this F-16
     plan...

     On 9/2/11 12:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

       Link: themeData

        

       CzR = Czech Republic

        

       CODE: CZ103 &amp; 104
       PUBLICATION: yes 
       ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Prague/Washington
       SOURCE DESCRIPTION: 

       103 - Deputy to the Czech Ambassador; moving in Oct to be deputy FM

       104 - Czech security attache

       (Ambassador stopped in for a few min)

       SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
       ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
       DISSEMINATION: Alpha
       HANDLER: Lauren

        

        

       The CEs need NATO. Plain and simple. They need a functional NATO. And
       they need NATO to return to its primary focus-containment of the large
       threat (Russia), and protection of the NATO land (them). Containment
       has to be the primary focus for NATO. No matter who you are, if you're
       in NATO, you need to understand this.

       CzR doesn't see NATO doing this with tanks, like before. It will do
       this with missile defense and military projects (F16s-see below).
       Planting NATO's flag on CE soil. So that Russia cannot do that
       instead.

        

       Yes, NATO has lost its focus with the wars, but BMD and such can unite
       and refocus NATO once again.

        

       BMD

        

       CzR wants a role in missile defense. This cannot be stressed enough.
       The announcement under Obama to give bmd to others obliterated the
       Czech-US relationship-it is non-existent now.

        

       Now this may seem contrary to what has been in the media, but everyone
       has it wrong on what actually happened in the Czech-US bmd
       negotiations under Bush. To start with, no one is/was straightforward
       in the negotiations. Yes, it is understandable that the US keeps their
       plans secret, but not when you are suppose to have a partner in the
       negotiations.

        

       So here is how it played out: Bush's team came to CzR and proposed for
       the country to be part of the "bmd system". That was all they said.
       Some officials alluded that it would be the radar. In the Czech
       government, there was agreement that bmd was imperative. But every
       piece of formal documentation from the US was incredibly vague and
       didn't spell out what would actually be coming into CzR as part of the
       system. It was very strange and confusing. We had never done
       negotiations like this. So, we put off signing any document until we
       could know what exactly we were agreeing to. Why would we agree to be
       part of the bmd system, and not know what exactly that meant? Then
       they came to us and said that CzR would have to pay for its part of
       the system. We didn't have that sort of money at the time. It was a
       mess.

        

       Then the new plan came from Obama in 2009. Obama's plan didn't have
       the radar in Czech Republic anymore. Obama's team said that Czech
       Republic wasn't a "priority" for their administration and that other
       countries were more important to put the radar in-Romania, Turkey,
       Lithuania or others. Problem is that Romania says they have the deal,
       but they haven't had confirmation from the US on this. Turkey also
       thinks it has the deal, but it doesn't have confirmation either. No
       one knows who is getting the radar portion of the system. Everyone
       wants it. The Obama team then came to CzR and offered a "piece" of the
       bmd system. We were excited. But when we got the the formal proposal,
       it was for a "bmd scientific research center". This was simply
       unacceptable. This was not good enough for us. CzR needs US military
       on its soil, not a "research" center with no military and would have
       to be paid for by the Czechs anyway. Completely ridiculous. So we
       pulled out of any agreement to the current system.

        

       If the US came and said that radar would be put in CzR, we would agree
       immediately. But instead the US doesn't value CzR relationship at all.

        

       When CzR publicly pulled out of the current bmd system in June,
       Russian FM immediately called Czech FM and said that it appreciated
       the reconsideration. Czech FM said that it had nothing to do with
       Russia. That Russia hadn't intimidated it to change its stance,
       instead CzR was more fired up to "retaliate" against Russian
       aggression.

        

       As far as the current talks between the US and Russia on bmd, most of
       the CEs want to sabotage them. No one wants Russia in on bmd.
       Moreover, no one wants the US and Russia to be friendly. The US needs
       to quit with this reset-nonsense and move forward with a firm military
       strategy in CE. The CEs want to move against Russia, but can't do it
       alone.

        

       New CE Security Plan

        

       So if CzR can't get in the bmd system, there is another deal we will
       push for, as we are determined to get US military on our soil.

        

       CzR wants a batch of F-16s like Poland. It needs supersonic. It
       doesn't really want the new Grippen. CzR is begging the US right now
       for F-16s. The US said it would sell them, but at an exorbitant price.
       They are far too expensive for CzR who has had to slash some of their
       defense budget because of the financial crisis.

        

       Also, other countries who sell military equipment to CzR and the CEs
       do it within other deals, so it isn't just an expensive military deal.
       For example, the French sell things to CzR, but then purchase
       agricultural equipment from CzR in trade-all part of one deal (LG: I
       pointed out how the Russians do this all the time. Military trade for
       gold deals, etc). This creates a relationship more than just around
       one sector. The US hasn't done this.

        

       So the plan that CzR is now presenting is for 5 or 6 Central European
       countries to go in together and do a mass order of the F-16s in
       exchange for a discount by the US. It would be Romania, Slovakia,
       Hungary, Bulgaria and maybe more for Poland - for 85 or so F-16s. It
       would be interesting because then all of them could train together in
       one country and then set up a repair factory in another country. The
       countries would be tied together - and tied to the US. The US would
       need to have military on the ground to train the CEs. This is the best
       sort of security alliance between US and CEs.

        

       If CzR can't get bmd or the F16 deal, then it is done with any
       non-Eurasian commitments to NATO. Period. If CzR can get bmd or the
       F16s, then it will pretty much agree to any sort of military
       commitment the US wants anywhere in the world. That is the ultimatum.

        

       Germans

        

       CzR is really on a different page on most issues than Germany. But is
       on the same page as pretty much everything with the Poles. So the
       Poles and other Central Europeans are its true partners. The Germans
       are like toddlers in their defense strategy. They have been divided
       for so long, that they do not understand how to act inside of NATO.
       This is why they are nice to the Russians. It is the wrong strategy
       with them. The Germans think they can handle the Russians. They can't.
       Germany can't get the other NATO members to agree with it, so it only
       works bilaterally with the Russians, undermining NATO's focus.

        

       Other Alliances

        

       Nordic Alliance is a fascinating thing, but there is no plan for V4
       yet. Sure it'll have a battlegroup, but it'll be under the EU and not
       really going to flesh out without some "outside" help. V4 is
       overestimated in the US. There is no structure or command plan for it.
       It has been a painful process under the EU.

        

       Ukraine

        

       CzR is worried about Ukraine. It is so pro-Russian that there is a
       concern that it will militarize under the Moscow umbrella. Everyone in
       CE is concerned about this militarization.

        

       McFaul

        

       On McFaul: everyone in CE hates dealing with him. He is deluded. He
       believes that Russia can actually be pulled into being an ally with
       the US. McFaul wants to use Regan's gameplan. He constantly quotes
       Regan. On a sidenote, in McFaul's office there is a large (really
       large, like4x3) photo blown up above his desk of McFaul, Obama,
       Medvedev and Putin all sitting around the lunchtable smiling. However,
       the way I heard it was that McFaul was scared to death of Putin and
       stuttered the entire time.

       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       STRATFOR
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-09-02 22:31:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/117802_re-alpha-insight-czech-republic-bmd-us-russia-military-and.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>118334</id>
    <title>Re: reva &amp; kamran Fwd: Re: Source/confed opp in Beirut
</title>
    <description>   We are looking for a confed partner.  If ME1 can facilitate a relationship
   with a media outlet in Lebanon, that would be great, but I'm not really
   looking to see if we have access to journos per se.

   On 9/6/11 11:19 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     I have heard of it but have not seen much from them.

     On 9/6/11 12:18 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

       i have not heard of this one, but keep in mind that we have journalist
       contacts (editors) for pretty much every Lebanese media agency of any
       significance via ME1

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: "Jennifer Richmond" &lt;richmond@stratfor.com&gt;
       To: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;, "Kamran Bokhari"
       &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
       Sent: Tuesday, September 6, 2011 10:03:09 AM
       Subject: reva &amp; kamran Fwd: Re: Source/confed opp in Beirut

       Have either of you heard of this publication?

       -------- Original Message --------

       Subject: Re: Source/confed opp in Beirut           
          Date: Tue, 06 Sep 2011 09:21:41 -0500           
          From: kyle.rhodes &lt;kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com&gt;    
            To: Jennifer Richmond &lt;richmond@stratfor.com&gt; 
            CC: Confederation &lt;confed@stratfor.com&gt;       

       I've never heard of them and we've never done an interview with them
       to my knowledge. The only mention of us on their site is a repub of a
       Reuters article from last month featuring an interview with Kamran on
       Libya.

       Maybe send to Reva or Kamran to see if they know him?

       On 9/6/11 9:09 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

         Yes.  Do you have any background on this paper, Kyle?  Most
         definitely interested in expanding in the ME.

         On 9/6/2011 9:06 AM, kyle.rhodes wrote:

           Let me know if you're interested - I've not responded yet.

           -------- Original Message --------

           Subject: Request a Complimentary Media Account and Join your Media 
                    List                                                      
              Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2011 10:49:32 -0400                            
              From: Sylviane Zehil &lt;sylviane@zehil.com&gt;                       
                To: PR@STRATFOR.com                                           

           Dear Sir/Madam,

           I am writing you to request a Complimentary Media Account and Join
           your Media List.
           I am currently the New York and UN Bureau Chief for L'Orient Le
           Jour, a leading independent daily newspaper based in Beirut,
           Lebanon. I am interested in covering Middle East Issues.
           If you need further information I would be pleased to provide it
           to you.
           I am looking forward to hearing from you soon.
           Regards,
           Sylviane Zehil
           New York and UN Bureau Chief
           L'Orient Le Jour
           UN Room L-331 H
           (212) 963 52 36 (UN)
           (212) 529 91 36
           (917) 882 82 44 (cell)
           email: sylzehil@aol.com
           www.lorientlejour.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 richmond@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4324
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Kyle Rhodes
 Public Relations Manager
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com

 kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com
 +1.512.744.4309
 www.twitter.com/stratfor
 www.facebook.com/stratfor

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-09-06 20:22:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 02:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/118334_re-reva-and-kamran-fwd-re-source-confed-opp-in-beirut-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
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      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>meredith@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>119302</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT -- Several issues about Brazil - BR 707
</title>
    <description>   Good question from what i could understand from source is that Brazil
   really likes Lugo and wouldnA't try to act while he is in office because
   heA's been to cooperative despite his inability to control the issue, the
   thing is that if with Lugo who is a "friend" of the Brazilian govt the
   situation is hard to deal with, they think that with other presidents the
   situation will be much harder to deal with. I think and this is my feeling
   from the conversation, Brazil has just started to think about other
   measures they would need to take in case things get worse, but still in
   its initial stage. I think theyA've only started thinking about other
   measures. Source said that he is supposed to get some info soon about
   AmorimA's meeting in Paraguay yesterday. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Allison Fedirka" &lt;allison.fedirka@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, September 7, 2011 5:57:06 PM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT -- Several issues about Brazil - BR 707

   regarding the Brasiguayos and Brazil breaking away from the tradition of
   avoiding hard decisions...
   Can you elaborate what type of decisions he was referring to?  What course
   of action Brazil might take and what would be the tipping point?  I know
   that up until now Lugo hasn't been able to control the issue in Paraguay
   and there is still quite a bit of tensions between locals
   (Paraguayan/guarani) and Brazilians, those of Brazilian descent.  Would
   Brazil need to act before Lugo is replaced in 2013?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Paulo Gregoire" &lt;paulo.gregoire@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "watchofficer" &lt;watchofficer@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, September 7, 2011 3:49:27 PM
   Subject: INSIGHT -- Several issues about Brazil - BR 707

   CODE: BR 707
   ATTRIBUTION: Confederation Partner
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Chief analyst of a webiste in Brazil especialized in
   Brazilian military intelligence and defense policy
   PUBLICATION: if useful
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   SPECIAL HANDLING: none
   SOURCE HANDLER: PAULO

   I had lunch with our confed partner. We talked about several issues, I
   will start from some of the issues that Karen had requested about. 
   Source said that the govt will have to import ethanol because due to the
   bad sugar cane harvest and that sugar prices went up many sugar mills
   preferred selling sugar than using it for ethanol. The govt had also to
   decrease the level of ethanol in the gasoline mixture because there is a
   lack of ethanol in the domestic market. The govt, however, has decided to
   give tax exemption  to sugar mills and decrease the cost in order to use
   the sugar cane for the ethanol production. He thinks this is temporary,
   this shortage of ethanol occurred because of the bad harvest and high
   price of sugar in the international market, but he believes the govt will
   continue supporting the ethanol production and next year if everything
   occurs fine with the sugar cane harvest they will not have problems in
   supplying the domestic market and then also be able to export to other
   markets.
   The relationship between Rousseff and the business community is good. He
   said that for the bankers the interest rate of 12% is still very good for
   them to make pretty good money and the big businesses in Brazil tend to
   support more inflationary policies as they want to sell and grow. They
   were the ones who have been pressuring the govt to decrease interest
   rates.
   Source talked to the Argentine Defense Minister Arturo Puricelli about the
   possible cooperation projects between Brazil and Argentina. Source said
   the most advanced one is the production of the KC 390 airplane which parts
   of the airplane are being produced in Cordoba Argentina and the rest in
   Brazil by Embraer. Source said that Argentina is interesting in
   participating in the production of the armored vehicle Guarani, but Brazil
   said that not it is too late as this Brazilian along with the company
   Iveco are already in the latest stages in the development of this tank.
   Another joint production that that is making progress between both
   countries is the Gaucho vehicle, which source said that it is a piece of
   shit but it will be good enough to sell it and make some money. The joint
   space agency is something both countries have an interested in moving
   forward. 
   One interesting thing we discussed was BrazilA's relationship with the
   China. I  asked him why in his opinion there are so many people in the
   press, politicians, academia and even some businesses in Brazil who tend
   to call China a strategic partner if Brazil mostly sells iron ore to them
   and also have conflicting interests like an enlargement of the UN security
   council that could include Brazil and Japan. Source told me I am not
   saying anything, just look at the my hand, his hand was showing money. I
   asked him if the Chinese were bribing people to say nice things about
   China, source did not say anything just nodded his head. 
   I also talked to source about AmorimA's relationship with the armed forces
   and some possible civil-military tension. Source said that the beginning
   of AmorimA's bad relationship with the Armed Forces was when Amorim was
   foreign minister and the govt sent a bill to congress saying that if there
   was any attack to a Brazilian company abroad that could be perceived as an
   attack to the Brazilian territory as well. Amorim accused the military
   people of influencing the govt to send that bill and went public to accuse
   the armed forces. The person who actually told Lula to send that bill to
   Congress at the time was the current President Rousseff and the armed
   forces had asked Amorim to apologize to them. Since then the relationship
   between Amorim has always been bad with the armed forces. Now he is the
   minister of defense and the military people do not like it. I asked then
   if he thought there was going to be some sort of tension. Source said look
   the generals do not want trouble they wanna enjoy their fat salaries and
   have a good life, they do not want to confront the govt, the colonels want
   to be where the generals are and for that they have to play the game, and
   the lower ranks do not know where they stand and just follow the flow.
   Plus, society in general does not support the armed forces so there is
   nothing the military people can do about.
   Source also talked about the Brasiguaios, he said that this is an
   increasingly hot issue and he thinks this is the only issue that he sees
   Brazil breaking away from its tradition of avoiding hard decisions because
   the govt realizes that although they have a good relationship with Lugo,
   Lugo is too weak to impose any sort of control. I even joked saying that a
   possible conflict between Argentina and the UK over the
   Malvinas wouldn A't be an issue Brazil would get involved and he said no.
   He said Brazil would give some sort of rhetorical support and some
   logistical support as well but not really. Source thinks that the issue of
   Brasiguaios would be the main one, which Brazil could break away from its
   tradition of avoiding hard decisions. 
   Source also said that the federal police is increasing the number they
   have been monitoring, now they monitor 40 thousand people. He said that
   the workerA's party has control over the main guys at the federal police
   and use that to monitor their political enemies. 
</description>
    <date>2011-09-07 23:04:14</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-13 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/119302_re-alpha-insight-several-issues-about-brazil-br-707-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>paulo.gregoire@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>119786</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA - Turkey's plans for Syria - ME1*
</title>
    <description>   On 9/8/11 1:50 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     SOURCE: sub-source via ME1
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Turkish diplomat in Lebanon
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: B- C
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: B for the most part - overplays the Turkish Islam card
     though
     SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
     SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

     The Turkish position on Syria is complex. He says part of its complexity
     has to do with Erdogan's government's strategy to avoid controversy.
     Erdogan wants to avoid making rash decisions he could regret later. This
     is why, for example, he is suspending (and not severing) relations with
     Israel. the policy of this government is to keep its options open and
     also to avoid making enemies.   Erdogan wants to create a new  image
     about Turkey. Turks had won over the centuries a reputation of being
     factious, belligerent and blood-letting people. This is the reason why
     Turkey's foreign policy is based on having zero enemies. He says that
     one side effect of the effort to avoid creating enmities is the slowness
     of reaction to changes in the world. When Turkey acts, its decisions
     tend to lack steam. Erdogan wants to transform TUrkey into another
     Germany and Japan, but with more military muscle to flex.

     Contrary to Erdogan's seeming fiery statements on Israel, the
     foundations of Turkish-Israeli relations remain essentially strong.
     Erdogan will never disappoint the U.S. After all, the U.S. is Turkey's
     strategic ally. Turkey does not want its relations with Israel to reach
     the point of no return. Erdogan wants to impress Arabs that he is
     capable of twisting the arms of Israel and get its prime minister to
     accept that Turkey is a distinguished regional leader. Turkey has
     interests in the Arab world, and neither the U.S. nor Israel has a
     problem with that. In fact, both the U.S. and Israel would like to
     encourage the spread of Turkey's type of Hanafi Islam  into the Arab
     world. Good luck! In Turkey, Islam is a private business for the most
     part, whereas in the Arab world it is a public matter. Not true.
     Remember Gulen and its rising influence. In Turkey, the state has been
     thoroughly secularized, whereas in the Arab world, the clash between the
     state and Islam remains intense. At best, Arab secularism is
     dysfunctional.

      Erdogan has not yet made up his mind on overthrowing Asad. He knows the
     process will be lengthy, painful, bloody and is bound to threaten
     Turkey's internal stability.  Erdogan is keeping his options open. He
     does not trust Asad because he knows he is insecure and politically
     crude. In addition, Asad has to answer to his family without whom he
     would lose his sense of political direction.

     Erdogan's decision to suspend military and business relations with
     Israel--in addition to lowering the level of their mutual diplomatic
     representation--will be followed up by a similar action against Syria's
     Asad. He chose to start with Israel in order to deny Asad the excuse of
     claiming that he is acting on behalf of Israel and the U.S. to isolate
     his regime. s Erdogan does not particularly care for Asad but he
     realizes that Syria is a very difficult country to govern. If
     overthrowing Asad could lead to stabilizing Syria, Erdogan would go for
     it, but he knows better. Syria after Asad will become a battleground for
     the region's country and will have a negative effect on Turkey itself.
</description>
    <date>2011-09-08 20:24:37</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-15 20:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/119786_re-alpha-insight-turkey-syria-turkey-s-plans-for-syria-me1-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>119853</id>
    <title>Re: G3/S3 - TURKEY/PNA - Turk warships to escort any Gaza aid
	vessels-Erdogan
</title>
    <description>   we need to confirm this from Noble. Cyprus media is highly pushing this -
   including Greek Cypriot FM's visit to Israel. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Siree Allers" &lt;siree.allers@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, September 8, 2011 1:04:50 PM
   Subject: Re: G3/S3 - TURKEY/PNA - Turk warships to escort any Gaza
   aid        vessels-Erdogan

   Some OS with analysis, things simultaneously going on in Cyprus, etc.

   Noble Energy to ignore Turkish threats on Cyprus
   8 September 11 12:44, Adi Ben-Israel
   http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/docview.asp?did=1000680741

   Noble Energy Inc. (NYSE: NBL) says that it will push ahead with its
   Cypriot offshore exploratory well at Block 12, in spite of warnings from
   Turkey not to do so. Block 12 adjoins Israel's Leviathan field.

   The "Cyprus Mail" says Cyprus is stuck between a rock and a hard place in
   the Turkish-Israeli dispute. If President Demetris Christofias chooses to
   push ahead with drilling, he is essentially calling Turkeya**s bluff.
   Failure to do so effectively acknowledges Turkeya**s dominion over the
   island.

   "Cyprus Mail" says that the heightened tension between Israel and Turkey
   comes on the back of repeated warnings by Turkish officials against Cyprus
   drilling in its exclusive economic zone. While some commentators believe
   the feud with Israel may be used as a pretext to build up naval patrols in
   seas between Israel and Cyprus, at a time when both latter countries are
   discussing collaboration on the extraction and distribution of hydrocarbon
   deposits in their respective marine zones, the paper says that current
   diplomatic thinking in the region is that Turkey has more important issues
   to contend with than create serious problems for the island.

   Energy Service head Solon Kassinis told the "Cyprus Mail" that he expects
   drilling to start before October 1. Noble Energy will use the Homer
   Ferrington rig currently drilling in the Noa field offshore from Ashkelon
   in Israela**s exclusive economic zone.

   Kassinis said, a**I expected Turkey to bark but I dona**t think they will
   do anything because what wea**ve done is based on international law, and
   if they want to be considered a country that respects international law,
   when it has a network of (oil and gas) pipe lines, charging transit fees,
   how can it?"

   Kassinis added that any fears from Noble Energy have been assuaged by the
   US Embassy in Nicosia which has told the company to go ahead and expedite
   the exploration process.

   Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com
   - on September 8, 2011

   A(c) Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2011

   Most of this we already know, but this is what other analysts are saying.
   The Cyprus econ angle at the bottom is interesting. I believe Peter was
   talking about it this morning. [sa]

   Analysis: Turkey's gunboat diplomacy makes waves in region
   ANKARA | Thu Sep 8, 2011 12:51pm EDT
   http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/08/us-turkey-israel-gamble-idUSTRE7871WZ20110908

   (Reuters) - Turkey's plan to flex its naval muscles in the eastern
   Mediterranean risks being perceived as an over-reaction in Ankara's
   dispute with former ally Israel and as an assertion of regional power that
   could alienate even its new Arab admirers.

   Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's ploy may fuel Western unease over Turkey's
   reliability as a NATO partner and its penchant for actions designed to
   court popularity in the Muslim world.

   Turkey's mix of economic growth and secular democracy under an Islamist
   government has fascinated Arab countries eager for a new model, but even
   those in the throes of popular uprisings may feel qualms if Ankara starts
   throwing its military weight about.

   Stung by Israel's refusal to apologize over last year's killing of nine
   Turks during an Israeli commando raid on an aid ship bound for Gaza,
   Erdogan said Turkish warships would be seen in waters where Israel's navy
   operates, raising the risk of a clash between the once close allies.

   Bolstered by a booming economy and unprecedented political stability at
   home, Turkey has seen its "soft power" rise in the region under Erdogan's
   AK Party, rooted in political Islam.

   Conservative on social and religious issues and liberal on economic ones,
   the AK government has cemented business ties in the Middle East, Central
   Asia and Africa and pursued a foreign policy of "zero problems with
   neighbors" -- a policy buffeted by the dispute with Israel and tensions
   with Syria.

   But threats to deploy warships show that Turkey, a prickly NATO member and
   European Union candidate, is now tempted to use its military power to push
   its interests in a changing region.

   "Erdogan is taking a very aggressive stance to assert Turkey's status as a
   regional power instead of using the soft power we have seen until
   recently," said Gareth Jenkins, an Istanbul-based security analyst.

   "There is a sense in the AK Party that Turkey is a major regional power
   and that the Mediterranean is its sphere of influence. But NATO and the
   West increasingly see Turkey as a loose cannon," he said.

   "Turkey played its cards well in the past when it had good relations with
   everyone, but now it is playing them very badly."

   Jenkins said non-Arab Turkey behaving like a neighborhood bully would be
   regarded with grave concern by Arabs, who were subjects of the Ottoman
   empire for centuries.

   "The Arabs distinguish between a Turkey that stands up to Israel and
   engages with them and a Turkey that wants to dominate the entire region,"
   Jenkins said.

   Omer Taspinar, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington,
   said Turkey might be using Israel as a convenient punching bag following a
   series of diplomatic setbacks and domestic failures, including the Kurdish
   problem.

   Turkey's ties with Syria, a former friend, are near breaking point --
   President Bashar al-Assad has defied Turkish calls for him to end a bloody
   crackdown on protesters. Shi'ite Iran, another close ally of Turkey, has
   reacted frostily to Ankara's decision to host a NATO early-warning radar
   system.

   "Turkey is going through a difficult period and Israel has given Erdogan
   the chance to demonstrate he is a strong leader in a strong country,"
   Taspinar said.

   "Turkey has experienced a period of economic growth and political
   stability and it feels very powerful. But they don't realize there is a
   price to pay for this saber-rattling."

   A larger presence of Turkish vessels in the eastern Mediterranean would be
   unsettling Greece and for the divided island of Cyprus as it eyes oil
   drilling exploration.

   Turkey says oil deals granted by the Greek Cypriot government, which
   represents the island in the European Union, are illegal as the borders of
   Cyprus remain undetermined while Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots
   pursue reunification talks.

   Turkey and Greece, also a NATO member, have a history of territorial
   disputes, and their navies were involved in a standoff in 1996 over an
   uninhabited islet in the Aegean Sea.

   BALANCE OF FORCES

   Turkey is NATO's second biggest military and its navy is considered to be
   far superior to that of Israel, although the Jewish state is widely
   assumed to have submarines that carry nuclear-tipped cruise missiles.

   Israel has expanded patrols in the eastern Mediterranean to enforce the
   Gaza blockade it says is needed to prevent arms smuggling to the
   Palestinian group Hamas and to deter any Lebanese Hezbollah militant
   attack on offshore gas platforms.

   Few Turkish analysts believe Turkey is planning to send frigates in open
   defiance of Israel's blockade of Gaza, which the United Nations has
   declared legal, but their mere presence in international waters not far
   from Gaza could risk a clash.

   It seems implausible that Turkey, as a NATO member, could get involved in
   actual hostilities with Israel.

   NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen said on Wednesday that the
   Turkish-Israeli relationship was a "bilateral matter" and urged the two to
   find ways to ease tensions.

   However, Erdogan's words that Turkish naval bases have "the power and
   opportunity to provide escorts," suggesting that Ankara could put a future
   aid flotilla under its protection, set off alarm bells.

   "They have created the conditions for another flotilla to challenge the
   blockade," said Henri Barkey, a Turkey expert at the Carnegie Endowment
   for International Peace in Washington.

   "What is the Turkish navy going to do if another flotilla decides to go
   in? They would have to keep their promise and escort the flotilla. This
   puts the U.S. administration in a terrible position."

   President Barack Obama's administration is keen to smooth ties between its
   two most important allies in the Middle East and U.S. diplomats are
   working in private to heal the rift.

   CYPRUS

   Some Turkish and Israeli analysts say that Turkey's motive is not to seek
   a showdown with Israel over Gaza, but to build up a naval presence between
   Cyprus and Israel to create a sense of menace and scare investors away
   from the gas fields there.

   Turkey has been chafing at Cypriot-Israeli energy deals, and the tensions
   with Israel could enable Ankara to send a message without making explicit
   threats.

   "Turkey's emphasis on freedom of navigation is also connected to the
   assessment that in the eastern Mediterranean there are natural gas
   deposits beyond what have already been discovered," said Gallia
   Lindenstrauss of the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv
   University.

   Sinan Ulgen, from the Istanbul-based Center for Economics and Foreign
   Policy Studies, said Erdogan, known as a temperamental leader, is driven
   by public opinion.

   Erdogan, who won a third consecutive term in office last June, has become
   a hero among Muslims for his stance against Israel and in favor of the
   Palestinians.

   "It is very dangerous for a country when it starts to believe its own
   propaganda," Jenkins said.

   On 9/8/11 12:53 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     Sure but hitting the MM is very different from taking on a convoy
     escorted by battleships. The tactics come into play once we know what
     are the intentions of the Turks and how the Israelis intend to respond -
     both of which are political decisions.

     On 9/8/11 1:50 PM, Nate Hughes wrote:

       they hit the Mari Marmara in international waters. Israeli doctrine
       dictates hitting them at night under cover of darkness. This entails
       hitting them the last night before they hit Gaza waters, since you can
       cross the entire span of Gaza waters in a matter of hours even in a
       slow ship.

       It is the announced intention to run the blockade that Israel has used
       for justification in the past, not the physical act of doing so.

       Dealing with this while Turkish naval escorts are involved will
       profoundly complicate the tactical scenario and make any advantage
       Israel can bring to bear, like its greater proficiency at night
       operations, only more important.

       On 9/8/11 12:46 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

         There are two separate types of waters involved here. Clearly
         international and those off the Gaza coast. I don't think the
         Israelis will do anything in the former. The latter is where it
         becomes tricky. Since Gaza is neither a state entity nor a part of
         any state, there is a huge debate over the status of its territorial
         waters. Israel has a naval presence there. So the question is
         whether the Turks would be willing to venture that far. In any case,
         watch for an Israeli reaction to this in terms of what they would do
         to counter Turkish moves.

         On 9/8/11 1:40 PM, Nate Hughes wrote:

           keep an eye out for a specific number of aid ships and their
           size/capacity as well as specifics of any escorts that might
           compose the convoy.

           need to be pushing sources on what Turkish rules of engagement
           might be. Escorting unarmed ships safely through a proficient navy
           blockade -- especially when they know you're coming -- is no small
           task.

           This looks like diary to me.

           On 9/8/11 12:32 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

             like we discussed in the blue sky, they could be really serious
             this time.  let's see if the turks have (re) grown a pair.  this
             is your time, Pasha!

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: "Marc Lanthemann" &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
             To: alerts@stratfor.com
             Sent: Thursday, September 8, 2011 12:29:55 PM
             Subject: G3/S3 - TURKEY/PNA - Turk warships to escort any Gaza
             aid        vessels-Erdogan

             we've heard about this before, but this is from Erdogan himself.
             Turk warships to escort any Gaza aid vessels-Erdogan
             Thu Sep 8, 2011 4:49pm GMT

              http://af.reuters.com/article/egyptNews/idAFL5E7K838620110908?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=egyptNews&amp;utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FAfricaEgyptNews+%28News+%2F+Africa+%2F+Egypt+News%29&amp;utm_content=Google+Reader&amp;sp=true

             Print | Single Page
             [-] Text [+]

             CAIRO, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Turkish warships will escort any
             Turkish aid vessels to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, Prime
             Minister Tayyip Erdogan said in remarks broadcast on Al Jazeera
             television on Thursday.

             Erdogan also said that Turkey had taken steps to stop Israel
             from unilaterally exploiting natural resources from the eastern
             Mediterranean, according to Al Jazeera's Arabic translation of
             excerpts of the interview, which was conducted in Turkish.
             (Reporting by Omar Fahmy; Writing by Sami Aboudi; Editing by
             Louise Ireland)

 --
 Siree Allers
 ADP

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-09-08 20:10:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-10 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/119853_re-g3-s3-turkey-pna-turk-warships-to-escort-any-gaza-aid.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>120362</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT -- Several issues about Brazil - BR 707
</title>
    <description>   regarding the Brasiguayos and Brazil breaking away from the tradition of
   avoiding hard decisions...
   Can you elaborate what type of decisions he was referring to?  What course
   of action Brazil might take and what would be the tipping point?  I know
   that up until now Lugo hasn't been able to control the issue in Paraguay
   and there is still quite a bit of tensions between locals
   (Paraguayan/guarani) and Brazilians, those of Brazilian descent.  Would
   Brazil need to act before Lugo is replaced in 2013?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Paulo Gregoire" &lt;paulo.gregoire@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "watchofficer" &lt;watchofficer@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, September 7, 2011 3:49:27 PM
   Subject: INSIGHT -- Several issues about Brazil - BR 707

   CODE: BR 707
   ATTRIBUTION: Confederation Partner
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Chief analyst of a webiste in Brazil especialized in
   Brazilian military intelligence and defense policy
   PUBLICATION: if useful
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   SPECIAL HANDLING: none
   SOURCE HANDLER: PAULO

   I had lunch with our confed partner. We talked about several issues, I
   will start from some of the issues that Karen had requested about. 
   Source said that the govt will have to import ethanol because due to the
   bad sugar cane harvest and that sugar prices went up many sugar mills
   preferred selling sugar than using it for ethanol. The govt had also to
   decrease the level of ethanol in the gasoline mixture because there is a
   lack of ethanol in the domestic market. The govt, however, has decided to
   give tax exemption  to sugar mills and decrease the cost in order to use
   the sugar cane for the ethanol production. He thinks this is temporary,
   this shortage of ethanol occurred because of the bad harvest and high
   price of sugar in the international market, but he believes the govt will
   continue supporting the ethanol production and next year if everything
   occurs fine with the sugar cane harvest they will not have problems in
   supplying the domestic market and then also be able to export to other
   markets.
   The relationship between Rousseff and the business community is good. He
   said that for the bankers the interest rate of 12% is still very good for
   them to make pretty good money and the big businesses in Brazil tend to
   support more inflationary policies as they want to sell and grow. They
   were the ones who have been pressuring the govt to decrease interest
   rates.
   Source talked to the Argentine Defense Minister Arturo Puricelli about the
   possible cooperation projects between Brazil and Argentina. Source said
   the most advanced one is the production of the KC 390 airplane which parts
   of the airplane are being produced in Cordoba Argentina and the rest in
   Brazil by Embraer. Source said that Argentina is interesting in
   participating in the production of the armored vehicle Guarani, but Brazil
   said that not it is too late as this Brazilian along with the company
   Iveco are already in the latest stages in the development of this tank.
   Another joint production that that is making progress between both
   countries is the Gaucho vehicle, which source said that it is a piece of
   shit but it will be good enough to sell it and make some money. The joint
   space agency is something both countries have an interested in moving
   forward. 
   One interesting thing we discussed was BrazilA's relationship with the
   China. I  asked him why in his opinion there are so many people in the
   press, politicians, academia and even some businesses in Brazil who tend
   to call China a strategic partner if Brazil mostly sells iron ore to them
   and also have conflicting interests like an enlargement of the UN security
   council that could include Brazil and Japan. Source told me I am not
   saying anything, just look at the my hand, his hand was showing money. I
   asked him if the Chinese were bribing people to say nice things about
   China, source did not say anything just nodded his head. 
   I also talked to source about AmorimA's relationship with the armed forces
   and some possible civil-military tension. Source said that the beginning
   of AmorimA's bad relationship with the Armed Forces was when Amorim was
   foreign minister and the govt sent a bill to congress saying that if there
   was any attack to a Brazilian company abroad that could be perceived as an
   attack to the Brazilian territory as well. Amorim accused the military
   people of influencing the govt to send that bill and went public to accuse
   the armed forces. The person who actually told Lula to send that bill to
   Congress at the time was the current President Rousseff and the armed
   forces had asked Amorim to apologize to them. Since then the relationship
   between Amorim has always been bad with the armed forces. Now he is the
   minister of defense and the military people do not like it. I asked then
   if he thought there was going to be some sort of tension. Source said look
   the generals do not want trouble they wanna enjoy their fat salaries and
   have a good life, they do not want to confront the govt, the colonels want
   to be where the generals are and for that they have to play the game, and
   the lower ranks do not know where they stand and just follow the flow.
   Plus, society in general does not support the armed forces so there is
   nothing the military people can do about.
   Source also talked about the Brasiguaios, he said that this is an
   increasingly hot issue and he thinks this is the only issue that he sees
   Brazil breaking away from its tradition of avoiding hard decisions because
   the govt realizes that although they have a good relationship with Lugo,
   Lugo is too weak to impose any sort of control. I even joked saying that a
   possible conflict between Argentina and the UK over the
   Malvinas wouldn A't be an issue Brazil would get involved and he said no.
   He said Brazil would give some sort of rhetorical support and some
   logistical support as well but not really. Source thinks that the issue of
   Brasiguaios would be the main one, which Brazil could break away from its
   tradition of avoiding hard decisions. 
   Source also said that the federal police is increasing the number they
   have been monitoring, now they monitor 40 thousand people. He said that
   the workerA's party has control over the main guys at the federal police
   and use that to monitor their political enemies. 
</description>
    <date>2011-09-07 22:57:06</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-13 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/120362_re-alpha-insight-several-issues-about-brazil-br-707-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>allison.fedirka@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>120909</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT - LIBYA/ALGERIA - Q seeking refuge in Algeria - ME1
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE: Sub-source via ME1
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Algerian diplomat via ME1
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: C
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3-4 - could be a cover-up as Algeria is under pressure
   for backing Q
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

   The source confirms the news about Muammar Qaddafi's attempt to seek
   refuge in Algeria. Algerian president Abdulaziz Boutafliqa refused to
   answer Qaddafi's repeated phone calls.  Qaddafi's daughter and first wife
   were allowed into Algeria after Libya's provisional council had waived its
   objection to the matter. Algerian intelligence have determined the
   location of Qaddafi in the town of Bani Walid, which lies about 100 miles
   southwest of Tripoli. He says the Algerians passed the information to
   British intelligence. The task of chasing Qaddafi has been entrusted to
   special British units. He is confident the British will eventually get
   him.

   Qaddafi will be gunned down sooner than laer.The matter is pending
   securing the approval of the elders of Warfala tribe who are providing
   Qaddafi with sanctuary. The matter with Warfala will have to be resolved
   peacefully since it is Libya's largest tribe, and also because many of its
   young men have fought alongside the forces of the provisional council.
   Algeria has a vested interest in the elimination of Qaddafi in order to
   prevent him from allying himself with al-Qaeda in al-Maghreb.

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19
</description>
    <date>2011-09-01 17:07:49</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-07-24 17:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/120909_-alpha-insight-libya-algeria-q-seeking-refuge-in-algeria-me1.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ben.preisler@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>121087</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-USG contractor helping Libyan opposition-LY700
</title>
    <description>   Any way he could be more specific about what that hand entails?

   We know USG has had people there for months, but anything more specific
   would be helpful. (Numbers, locations, groups they're working with, groups
   they're wary of due to Islamist connections, etc.)

   On 9/12/11 1:17 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     Source Code: LY700
     PUBLICATION: No, for background only
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Govt security contractor on US Govt assignment in
     Libya
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: Still testing
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: A
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     You guys lending the opposition a hand?

     Certainly are. They need it. At the request of a USG committee and the
     rebels. Been there since no-fly.
</description>
    <date>2011-09-12 20:27:38</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-19 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/121087_re-alpha-insight-usg-contractor-helping-libyan-opposition.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bayless.parsley@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>121265</id>
    <title>Re: discussion - the Greek angle to the unfolding Turkish-Israel drama
</title>
    <description>   i just really don't see the point of terming a country's actions as
   "asinine and inept."  that completely goes against our methodology of
   empathetic analysis.  the Turks are making a lot of mostly empty gestures
   right now, but that's a function of constraints. we have to explain the
   logic behind them, but dismissing these moves as incompetence does not get
   us anywhere and actually detracts from our ability to forecast and
   understand Turkey's actions.

   And as Rodger has already argued, there are plenty of examples of this.
   let's get back to the core issue that started this discussion. are we
   seeing any signs of Greece trying to use the Cyprus issue as a distraction
   from the financial crisis?  If not or not yet, then let's give this
   discussion a rest and continue monitoring for signs that this could be
   developing.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Emre Dogru" &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, September 13, 2011 7:43:03 AM
   Subject: Re: discussion - the Greek angle to the unfolding Turkish-Israel
   drama

   in response to your first question - i think turkish civvies will not be
   allowed to do stupid things anymore.
   but still naval forces commitment in eastern med is a geopol move. even
   though it's not a credible threat for now, it shows turkey's maritime
   expansion route. and it makes sense b/c you've russia as the biggest
   arrestor in the black sea. greece is not an issue anymore but can still
   create head ache in the aegean. so, eastern Med is a natural sea expansion
   route for turkey (historically too).
   we need to watch for any sign of turkey trying to do the same in crimea.
   (this is, btw, is in track with davutoglu's book as well as our turkey
   monograph).

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Peter Zeihan" &lt;zeihan@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: analysts@stratfor.com
   Sent: Tuesday, September 13, 2011 7:20:39 AM
   Subject: Re: discussion - the Greek angle to the unfolding Turkish-Israel
   drama

   just to point out how insane the turkish position is -- can you imagine if
   the US committed naval forces to locations where American civvies doing
   extraordinarily stupid things in violation of a country's laws?

   just how asinine and inept do you think that would appear to people
   anywhere else in the world

   that's the nice little lonely corner that turkey is rabidly sticky-tacking
   itself into

   On 9/12/11 4:28 PM, Emre Dogru wrote:

     i disagree.
     turkey does not claim any right in israel/gaza. it says that israel
     cannot kill turkish civilians in international waters, though this is
     prob just a PR move. even if it's not, it's totally in line with Turkish
     geopolitical strategy.
     in cyprus, however, you've an american company operating with full
     international authority. i know turkey does not recognize cyprus, but no
     country other than turkey recognizes turkish cyprus, which makes it
     impossible for turkey to push its claim.
     i also don't get why greece would do that. it faces so many constraints
     that you know better than i do. the "distraction" argument would not
     work if you can't pay salaries of your workers. 
     the only way that this could create a problem is turkey taking advantage
     of greece's weakness and starts its own nat gas drilling operations off
     cyprus, which it cannot technically. so, turkey just makes sure that
     greek cypriots do not make progress, which i doubt they will soon.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Peter Zeihan" &lt;zeihan@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: analysts@stratfor.com
     Sent: Monday, September 12, 2011 1:57:40 PM
     Subject: Re: discussion - the Greek angle to the unfolding
     Turkish-Israel drama

     er...turkey doesn't have a basis to claim anything whatsoever in
     israel/gaza

     in cyprus it doesn't recognize the existance of greek cyprus at all so
     at least in turkish law there is standing for action

     cyrpiot issues are far nearer and dearer to the turkish heart, identity
     and pocketbook than anything in gaza and traditionally the bar for
     action has been much lower for intervening in cypriot issues than
     israeli/pal issues

     On 9/12/11 1:51 PM, Emre Dogru wrote:

       Turkish and international media has been speculating this since one
       week or so.
       I don't get why you think "so if there is an isreali crisis, there
       will already have been a cypriot crisis"
       these are very different situations. turkey has no basis to claim
       right off cyprus. in the case of gaza, turkey is just saying that
       turkish warships will not allow israel to attack aid ships within the
       international waters.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: "Peter Zeihan" &lt;zeihan@stratfor.com&gt;
       To: analysts@stratfor.com
       Sent: Monday, September 12, 2011 12:38:08 PM
       Subject: Re: discussion - the Greek angle to the unfolding
       Turkish-Israel drama

       i'd not rule that out, but that's not what i was getting at

       my point is that IF the turks decide that there are military options
       to be used in the gaza situation, then they will have already decided
       that there are military options to be used in the Cypriot situation

       so if there is an isreali crisis, there will already have been a
       cypriot crisis

       (and Greece can cash in on a Cypriot crisis)

       On 9/12/11 10:29 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

         Are you suggesting that Greece will start a conflict with Turkey to
         get over its sovereign debt crisis?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: "Peter Zeihan" &lt;zeihan@stratfor.com&gt;
         To: "Analysts" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
         Sent: Monday, September 12, 2011 10:18:42 AM
         Subject: discussion - the Greek angle to the unfolding
         Turkish-Israel drama

         Greek Premier George Papandreou stated today that a**The
         exploitation of natural resources by Cyprus and Israel is their
         sovereign right.a** The PM is speaking up against the Turkish moves
         to limit Cypriot drilling activities in the eastern Mediterranean.

         In all the (increasingly serious) Turkish-Israeli hubub the world
         has lost sight of the fact that while Turkey may see an opportunity
         in a crisis with Turkey, it sees Cyprus as a non-state. The
         threshold for action -- military or otherwise -- against Cyprus is
         much lower than it is against Turkey. Not to mention the fact that
         Israel would loooove to nudge any potential clash into Cyprus to
         save its own butt.

         I think its time for us to lay out how Greece has managed to exist
         in the modern era -- by leveraging its location. Modern Greece only
         came into existence because the Europeans (esp the Brits) backed it
         against the Ottomans. It then only maintained its independnece
         during the COld War because the Americans supported it against the
         Soviets. Since 1990 it has had no one but cheap European credit
         supporting it, and now that has disappeared as well. A conflict with
         Turkey -- with possible Greek backers including Israel, the US and
         the EU -- may prove to be an option for Greece to get out of their
         pickle.

         --
         --
         Emre Dogru
         STRATFOR  
         Cell: +90.532.465.7514
         Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
         emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
         www.stratfor.com

       --
       --
       Emre Dogru
       STRATFOR  
       Cell: +90.532.465.7514
       Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
       emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
       www.stratfor.com

     --
     --
     Emre Dogru
     STRATFOR  
     Cell: +90.532.465.7514
     Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
     emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
     www.stratfor.com

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-09-13 15:43:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/121265_re-discussion-the-greek-angle-to-the-unfolding-turkish.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>121394</id>
    <title>G3/S3* - IRAN/US/ISRAEL/SYRIA - Iran officials accuses USA,	Israel
	of interfering in Syria
</title>
    <description>    Iran officials accuses USA, Israel of interfering in Syria               
                                                                             
    Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman has accused the United States and      
    Israel of destabilizing the situation in Syria and urged regional        
    countries to be vigilant.                                                
                                                                             
    "What causes instability and insecurity in Syria, and the Americans and  
    Zionists are trying to fan the flames of it in our region, is the        
    interference of other countries in Syria's internal affairs and the      
    destabilization of this country in order to create an exit for the       
    Zionist regime," Ramin Mehmanparast said at a news conference broadcast  
    live by Iran's state news channel (IRINN) on 13 September.               
                                                                             
    "Our recommendation to all regional countries is to be vigilant about    
    American and Zionist pricks," he said.                                   
                                                                             
    "That foreign states should not interfere in the internal affairs of     
    regional countries is a principle, and we have always insisted on it,"   
    Mehmanparast added.                                                      
                                                                             
    "We think that power in countries should be based on support from most   
    people, not on dependence on other countries, especially Western         
    countries," he said.                                                     
                                                                             
    Source: Islamic Republic of Iran News Network, Tehran, in Persian 0533   
    gmt 13 Sep 11                                                            
                                                                             
    BBC Mon Alert TCU ME1 MEPol 130911 ea/ek                                 

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-09-13 09:40:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/121394_g3-s3-iran-us-israel-syria-iran-officials-accuses-usa-israel.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>122002</id>
    <title>Labor Day Review of Where We Are
</title>
    <description>   THIS IS FOR INTERNAL STRATFOR USE ONLY. DO NOT SHARE THIS DOCUMENT OR
   DISCUSS IT OUTSIDE OF STRATFOR.

    

    

    

   I hope you've all had a great Labor Day Weekend. This Labor Day marks a
   turning point in Stratfor's history, and I wanted to share my thoughts
   with you and some plans. It used to be, not so long ago, that we were so
   small that information flowed to all hands by itself.  It is hard for me
   to recognize sometimes that this is no longer true, so I will provide an
   extensive review of where we are and what is coming.  Some of this will be
   old hat to some of you; some of this will be new.  This is an attempt to
   start getting everyone on the same page. 

    

   Historically, Stratfor was unique in a number of ways. First, we accepted
   no advertising. Second, we charged for our subscriptions. Finally, we were
   revenue driven. We build the company from our revenues.  This kept us
   independent, it kept us free to experiment-and at times fail, it kept us
   tight. We were reaching a point where we our revenues did not keep up with
   our needs and market opportunities.

    

   Shea Morenz provided us with two opportunities.  First, he made an
   investment in Stratfor designed to give us the capital needed to build our
   staff and our marketing.  Second, he proposed a new venture, StratCap,
   which would allow us to utilize the intelligence we were gathering about
   the world in a new but related venue-an investment fund. Where we had
   previously advised other hedge funds. We would now have our own, itself
   fully funded by Shea.  Shea invested over $2 million in Stratfor and more
   in StratCap. In return he took a seat on Stratfor's board and a minority
   position in Stratfor, whose control remains in Don's and my hands.  It was
   a good deal for Stratfor, a good deal for StratCap, and since the deal
   closed officially on August 1, we now have the task of doing what we all
   want-building Stratfor and StratCap.

    

   Our cash position is not spectacular by any means, but we have the
   resources to build the kind of company we want, when that investment is
   combined with our revenues.  With cash under control we need to address
   the next problem-people. We all are doing more than our share to keep
   things going.  In some ways that good but it can be overdone, and we are
   overdoing it throughout the company.  Our job now is to expand the team. 
   Money is one element of that, but relieving the pressure we are under in a
   way increases the pressure, because we have to recruit and train new
   people. So it gets harder before it gets easier, and that's the point we
   are at.

    

   Let's divide our departments into two groups.  There are those departments
   that must train their own people, particularly in intelligence beyond the
   normal training needed by new employees.  We do that because no one thinks
   of the world like Stratfor, and that means that we can't hire people from
   other organizations, or at least not without a major training programming,
   which in our experience lasts up to two years.  Then there are departments
   that don't have this burden and that can hire people readily from other
   organizations.  Both groups of departments must grow and train, but the
   burden of training is much heavier in the Intelligence departments that
   train their staff from the bottom up than on other departments.  It is
   important for everyone to understand this distinction.  It is not that
   people in Intelligence are more important or more valuable than those in
   other departments.  It just means they face different problems in growing
   and that if they don't grow, other things can't happen.

    

   Now let's consider the tasks ahead.  First and foremost-and always first
   and foremost-we must be the world's leading private intelligence
   organization (and one of the finest intelligence organizations, period)
   and we must sell our intelligence through publishing.  Our current staff
   has done an outstanding job, but they are thin and sometimes we are weak. 
   We must do better in economics, and we must make certain that no AOR
   depends on only one person. There are lots of things that are needed. 

    

   Second, we are committed to supporting StratCap, a private fund that will
   begin operations some time this coming spring. What StratCap will do is
   use our Stratfor's intelligence and analysis to trade in a range of
   geopolitical instruments, particularly government bonds, currency and the
   like in the world's emerging markets.  Shea Morenz initiated this idea and
   leads it.  At the root of StratCap is a simple idea: Stratfor should put
   its money where its mouth is.  It does not conflict with Stratfor, but is
   an extension of it.

    

   Do not think of StratCap as an outside organization.  It will be integral
   to Stratfor, in the sense that much of the intelligence we are developing
   is useful to Stratcap as well as Stratfor.  The organizational and legal
   distinctions are real and important, but StratCap is linked to Stratfor
   intellectually and contractually.  It will be useful to you if, for the
   sake of convenience, you think of it as another aspect of Stratfor and
   Shea as another executive in Stratfor. 

    

   Let me also add that it is our commitment that all our team will benefit
   if StratCap is successful through some mechanism to be defined. This isn't
   an attempt to get you to work harder for the same money.  But that
   discussion must wait until the legal and administrative relationships of
   StratCap and its relation to Stratfor are worked out and reviewed by
   something called "compliance officers," people who make certain that we do
   not violate any regulations. 

    

   From that point of view, StratCap is something under construction.  You
   can see Shea Morenz hammering away building it in the corner office he
   took from Darryl. In the world of StratCap, corner offices are marketing
   tools.  This points to the fact that StratCap will be building its own
   staff and they come from a different world from Stratfor with a different
   culture.  That said, we have a great deal to learn from StratCap to
   strengthen Stratfor's understanding of economics and it has much to learn
   from us.  We are already working on mock portfolios and trades, testing
   our skills.  Kendra, Korena, Melissa, Jen, Peter, Meredith and myself are
   all involved in this along with Shea and Alfredo, a trader that makes us
   easy to understand compared to him. It's going pretty well in fact, but
   supporting StratCap will be a cultural and intellectual challenge.  It's
   important now to recognize that it is already here, growing and we will
   accommodate to it and it to us.

    

   I want to emphasize is that there is neither a legal, intellectual nor
   moral tension between Stratfor and StratCap.  We will continue to publish
   what we think is true.  StratCap is interested in our broad ideas but
   mostly in the obscure nuggets picked up by intelligence that are usually
   of little interest to our general readers.  My pledge to you and our
   readers is that our publication will remain untouched by StratCap-because
   they are merely different sides of the same coin, intelligence.

    

   We have also been asked to help the United States Marine Corps and other
   government intelligence organizations to teach them how Stratfor does what
   it does, and train them in becoming government Stratfors. We are beginning
   this project by preparing a three-year forecast for the Commandant of the
   Corps.  This is a double honor for us.  First, the professional
   intelligence community is acknowledging us as being the gold standard of
   intelligence.  Second, we are being asked to use our honest and unhedged
   views to support what is for Stratfor-an American company-its homeland. 
   Again, as with StratCap, there is no tension. We will tell the U.S.
   government precisely what we tell our readers and we think ourselves.  Our
   first lesson to the government is that intelligence organizations exist to
   make decision makers uncomfortable, not to make them feel better about
   their decisions. I didn't come this far to compromise on that. 

    

   Add to this that the fact that Turkish Chamber of Commerce (not its name
   but close enough; its name is TUSIAD) asked us to preside over their 40th
   anniversary celebration, and that the Turkish Foreign Minister and Energy
   Minister will speak at the event, and you can see both our global
   recognition and our commitment to speak the same words to every country.
   We can serve the world from the same platform.

    

   So think about it.  We have three triumphs.  First, our publication is now
   read by almost 300,000 people (counting our corporate accounts).  We are a
   major force around the world.  Second, Shea-a guy who has played with the
   big boys at Goldman Sachs, asked us to play in the majors with him. 
   Third, the USMC has asked for our help, and with them others in the
   defense community.  These are three validations of us that are precious to
   me.

    

   Obviously, there is no way in the world that we can do all these
   things-plus the endless little projects that we must do all the time-with
   the staff we have.  And given that we take two years to train new
   analysts, and all of this is on us now-we have an urgent problem.  We
   can't punt opportunities at hand and continue at our current size. Nor can
   we easily expand.  So we will therefore expand with difficulty.  There is
   no choice.  Our Analyst Development Program is the means where we train
   people and find new analysts as well as find some staff for publishing
   (watch officers, monitors, operations center and writers all under Jenna
   Colley). We will have the largest group of ADPs ever this fall, starting
   next week.  About 13 people at last count will be joining us.  This is a
   huge percentage of the number of analysts on staff. Ideally all will work
   out well and our crisis will be over.  That's unlikely but our crisis will
   be mitigated by January 1. Doing this will put a huge burden on
   Intelligence, who must do their work and also train these people, but
   there is no choice.  This is the year when we break out.  I promise to
   work side by side with the team in training and growing he organization. 
   I also promise that if we succeed, we will become one of the most
   significant and prestigious foreign policy publications in the world-and
   those that made it happen will be known.  I know there are questions about
   by-lines. You know my hesitation, but we will figure out together someway
   to make sure that the glory is shared.

    

   Intelligence is divided into three parts.  There is Strategic Intelligence
   (under Rodger assisted by Reva) that is organized geographically.  There
   is Tactical Intelligence (under Stick, assisted by Nate Hughes) that is
   organized thematically-organized crime, cyber-warfare, military,
   terrorism, security, financial flows, supply chain and so on.  There is
   then intelligence gathering, under Meredith, assisted by Jen Richmond that
   is building sources from around the world.  All of them must grow
   dramatically.  The first two will grow mostly out of the ADP pool. The
   latter will be done by extensive work in the field.  But it is the Writers
   Group that is making the most impressive evolution.  Under Jenna (and Tim
   French and Maverick) it has moved into the heart of intelligence, writing
   as well as editing.  Everyone should watch this team. They are pioneering
   things the world hasn't seen yet. Along with Watch Officers, monitors and
   the operations center, this unit is translating intelligence into product
   with increasing effectiveness.  It is now organizationally mature and
   ready to both grow and sustain the growth of Intelligence.

    

   This growth will put a tremendous strain on other departments. Leticia has
   done a tremendous job in Human Resources, but the job has grown much
   greater than she can possibly manage.  Just the process of getting visas
   for new ADPs is overwhelming, and at least half of these come from other
   countries.  We have selected an HR consulting firm to support her in the
   coming months and other solutions will be found to sustain this. HR will
   become more effective in the next months. In addition, we are retaining a
   law firm to create a policy for Stratfor on Foreign Corrupt Practices
   Act.  I don't plan to do the perp walk and I don't want anyone here doing
   it either.  We need some clear guidelines on the law and are getting them,
   particularly as we ramp our intelligence capability. Similarly finance has
   kept us all going and similarly it has to expand, although it is a shade
   less pressured than HR is.

    

   IT faces a huge challenge.  Traditional IT organizations focus on the
   development of new capabilities for a company and sustaining complex
   systems. At Stratfor, the focus must also be on sustaining basic systems
   like phones, email, configuring and fixing laptops and cell phones and so
   on-the basic tools that make our work possible and which are a particular
   challenge in a global company operating 24-7.  That gives our IT
   department a different shape and tempo than exists in other companies.
   With this class of ADPs, 24-7 will become very real.  IT is under pressure
   to maintain its focus on improving the web site and corporate systems but
   has a special and intense mission of supporting a growing, global company
   at the ground level, and the pressure is never going to be greater than
   now with all the new people coming on board in all departments. Creating
   an IT department that fits our peculiar needs will be Frank's challenge.

    

   I want to also point to two departments that are performing extremely
   well.  Customer Service at Stratfor is among the best in the business.  We
   daily get emails praising their work. John Gibbons has done an amazing job
   keeping this going.  More subscribers mean more customer service of
   course.

    

   Also to be mentioned is he on-line marketing team who has just done
   something very impressive. There is usually a slump in subscriptions after
   a Red Alert, and there was one, but in a matter of weeks they pitched in
   and turned it around with some strange and wonderful campaigns.  They have
   broken their forecast in spite of a pretty quiet world.  Its amazing the
   kind of ads that work!

    

   Let's turn to marketing and sales and the future.  Our readership is now
   about 5 percent of the Economist when we exclude corporate (not sure why
   we exclude corporate but that's what we do).  That means that we have
   probably saturated a good part of the early adopters market-the early
   adopters who love us and have built us-and put up with our weaknesses.
   It's kind of like people who supported Apple in its dark days, putting up
   with promising but not yet mature computers.  If you haven't read,
   "Crossing the Chasm," a rare business book that is actually helpful,
   please take a look at it.  It will explain much of what we are trying to
   achieve in marketing.

    

   We have no choice but to grow.  If we stay this size someone larger, with
   deep pockets will notice the market we have created and come in after us. 
   We won't be able to compete.  The only protection is market share, to be
   so dominant a force in the market that no one challenges us and our own
   deep pockets.  For this we must grow revenue and that means readership. 
   The place we must grow is in the mainstream.  I don't mean by mainstream
   CNN. I mean readers who are interested in what we have, but aren't
   fanatics, groupies and wannabes.  These people have higher standards in
   production values, and less forgiveness for mistakes. They don't buy the
   mystique.  They buy the publication. That's where most of our customers
   are and where we have to go.

    

   Obviously this is one of the reasons we need more people.  It is also the
   reason we must deliver in new ways.  Grant Perry and his team are looking
   at ways to create a unique, Stratfor video culture. I see this myself as
   consisting of much longer and serious conversations among analysts
   moderated by an anchor, documentaries, briefings. Perhaps our Sitreps
   should all be delivered via video and audio (there is I think huge demand
   for audio products in cars, or so many people tell me).  All of this will
   evolve in unexpected directions under Grant, Colin, Brian, Andrew and
   others who will join them. This is part of our own evolution into the
   mainstream, on our own terms, with our own voice. What you see above, by
   the way, are simply my own ideas, not fully thought out.  Whatever Grant
   and his team produce will be uniquely Stratfor.

    

   Other than that we shall see.  What markets we will enter, and how we
   enter them is not yet known. We do know that the current Stratfor product,
   however enhanced, will be our only offering.  We will not be developing
   new products for markets. 

    

   We have hired a consultant, Mark Stacey, who will guide this process.  We
   will also be bringing in a consulting firm to do survey research and
   interviews to teach us more about our current readers, readers who won't
   buy us, and readers who would buy us if they had heard of us.  Our choice
   was between hiring staff to give us a plan or hiring consultants to give
   us a plan and then hiring permanent staff to execute it.  The latter is
   the safest-we avoid a staff without the skill to do what we need whom
   instead craft a plan to do what they already know.  In addition to this
   initiative, we are participating in the University of Texas Business
   School program where a team of graduate students will essentially parallel
   the work of our outside consultants, giving us a double check on the
   data. 

    

   The goal here is to have a marketing and sales plan in place for execution
   on January 1.  From where I sit, the biggest challenge we have is that too
   many people have never heard of us.  At a meeting I can encounter someone
   who has subscribed for years and next to him is a person in the same
   industry that has never heard of us.  It is difficult selling to people
   who have never heard of us.  So our challenge-before trying to sell to
   them-is to increase awareness of who we are.  This is called branding and
   it's different from selling.  It is the precursor.  We will start with
   branding in January. That means there will be marketing people around
   asking many questions in the coming months, frequently the same ones.
   Please work with all of them.  In the end, we will have a plan with a high
   likelihood of success.

    

   Parallel to all of this, the executives (without Don, Steve Feldhaus or
   myself-the board members) are going through a planning process of their
   own, coordinated by Frank Ginac.  Not being on it (and not wanting to be
   informed of what is going on as there should be yet another set of eyes on
   things other than mine) I can't tell you what they are doing.  However,
   the deal we have on this is that as CEO, I will proceed with implementing
   my own plans that I've outlined here, and will consider their proposals
   when I see them. If the decision point is past when they make their
   recommendation on a subject, the recommendation will not be considered. 
   If they come in with recommendations before decision points, their
   recommendations will be taken very seriously.  This allows the company to
   move forward and an alternative planning model to be brought on line when
   it is ready.

    

   The company has become too large and complex for any one person to know
   what is going on.  I am moving (with difficulty) from the role of an early
   entrepreneur, knowing everything going on and getting involved in it, to
   the CEO of a company at the inflexion point.   The inflexion point is the
   point all companies dream of and few achieve-when they start really taking
   off.  This is a great point and a dangerous one.  Unless the company
   changes the way it does things, inflexion aborts.  I am trying to change
   what I do.

    

   There are some things that have to remain my responsibility.  Building
   Intelligence and publishing and particularly training new staff are things
   that I should oversee.  Building the intelligence capabilities of the
   company along with Meredith is also my responsibility.  Creating new
   models to support Stratcap and helping to train Stratcap in the
   capabilities of Stratfor is mine. Overseeing our training of the Marine
   Corps is something I want to do.  Kendra will be my deputy for this, but
   this leaves a large load on me.

    

   Along with this, for better or worse, I am the public face of Stratfor. 
   My speeches and travels build the brand, create intelligence
   opportunities, and give me a clearer vision of how the world works.  I
   will be doing a lot of traveling to do these things, and I will combine
   them with the Geopolitical Journeys concept that seems to have hit a
   nerve.  During my travels I will be doing articles, videos and writing a
   book based on those journeys, on the world's borderlands.  Between that
   and making contacts for Stratfor and StratCap, I will be busy.

    

   Along with that load is going to be setting the broad direction of the
   company.  Through long and sometimes painful experience I have learned
   that ultimate responsibility can be delegated but not abandoned.  It's an
   old military principle that applies here. I have a vision for Stratfor and
   while I will delegate, I will not turn over responsibility because I
   can't.

    

   That means that we will need an evolving management structure.  I've asked
   Don who is formally President of Stratfor to join Darryl in both the day
   to day management of the company and in what we still call "the business
   side."  One day we will simply be one company, but right now we are still
   two sides of one company.  Don and Darryl will now manage that side,
   implementing our plans there.  I will not disappear, but become
   intermittent on daily management but deeply focused on intelligence.

    

   One of the other things I must do is prepare a succession plan.  In some
   parts that are well developed, I already have that plan.  In other parts,
   we have to build an organization to have a succession plan.  But it is my
   intention that Stratfor survive me (no, I'm not feeling poorly and can
   still kick your ass).  I want to build this into the world's finest
   intelligence service, private and free to speak its mind.  I see this as
   the most lasting contribution I can make, and I am serious about making
   sure Stratfor goes on.

    

   We are all at the inflexion point where the level of effort temporarily
   soars until new resources are brought on line.  They couldn't have been
   staged in earlier because there weren't resources available.  But now they
   can't wait, because the moment will pass and perhaps never return.  For
   everything there is a "now."  This is now.

    

   I ask only one specific thing of all of you. If you don't understanding
   anything here; if you want to learn more; if something worries you and
   your boss can't clear it up, come directly to me. I will be available
   until the last week of September when I go with others to Turkey.  Please,
   please, please, do not engage in a round of paranoia or speculation based
   on lack of data.  Just set a time to see me and let's discuss it. 
   StratFantasy (a new term) is I really believe the greatest danger to
   success that we have face.

    

   This is a long review, but many have said they'd like to know where we are
   and what we are doing.  This is about as comprehensive as I can get. There
   will be more such reports.  There are no short versions about where we are
   and what we are doing.

    

    

   OH YES-THIS IS FOR INTERNAL STRATFOR USE ONLY. DO NOT SHARE THIS DOCUMENT
   OR DISCUSS IT OUTSIDE OF STRATFOR.

    

   --

   George Friedman

   Founder and CEO

   STRATFOR

   221 West 6th Street

   Suite 400

   Austin, Texas 78701

    

   Phone: 512-744-4319

   Fax: 512-744-4334

    
</description>
    <date>2011-09-05 21:55:16</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/122002_labor-day-review-of-where-we-are-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>allstratfor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:stratfordc@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>122005</id>
    <title>Re: FOR EDIT - Cat4 - Ven - cleaning house in the armed forces
</title>
    <description>   none of those dismissed were generals.  going to hold on this until I can
   get more info either way.  there will be other triggers to explain the
   restructuring of the armed forces in any case
   thanks for checking me on this
   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "George Friedman" &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;
   To: "Analysts" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Friday, April 16, 2010 12:04:05 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re: FOR EDIT - Cat4 - Ven - cleaning house in the armed forces

   It is standard practice in the us and other military to dismiss officers
   who aren't promoted. The dismissal of 173 non promotable officers in a
   military the size of venezuelas doesn't strike me as significant. Every
   year thousands of american officers are dismissed, usually in may and june
   as postings are up.

   You are trying to say that this is politically significant rather than the
   routine functioning of a militay. Certainly cubans are involved but they
   have been involved for years. There is no battle underway for control of
   the military. Chavez and the cubans won that years ago.

   In order for this story to work you either have to show that chavez's hold
   was slipping or that these particular people were selected because of
   politics rather than routine operations of any military

   You need to look at the people let go. They may be key political figures
   or half wits eating up the budget

   This could be significant but the fact that these guys failed promotion
   and were dismissed is not by itself important.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 16 Apr 2010 11:54:51 -0500 (CDT)
   To: analysts&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: FOR EDIT - Cat4 - Ven - cleaning house in the armed forces

   In the latest illustration of Venezuelan President Hugo Chaveza**s
   Cuban-inspired plan to subdue dissent within the armed forces, the
   Venezuelan Armed Forces discharged 173 members that failed to achieve
   promotions during the past three years, El Universal reported April 15.
   Notably, no generals were on the list of those whose jobs had been
   terminated. The list included 59 members of the Army, 45 members of the
   Territorial Guard 43 members of the Navy and 26 from the Air Force. Under
   the July 2008 Organic Law of the National Armed Forces, military personnel
   have a maximum period of two years after the end of their mandatory
   minimum service to obtain a promotion, or else they are forced into
   retirement.

    

   The organic law essentially redefined the Venezuelan Armed Forces from a
   politically non-aligned professional institution (as stated in the 1999
   constitution) to a patriotic, popular and anti-imperialist body. Chavez,
   not wanting to be caught off guard again by his generals as he did in an
   April 2002 coup attempt, came up with the Organic Law of the National
   Armed Forces with the help of his Cuban advisors in order to develop a
   Bolivarian military whose primary purpose is to protect and defend the
   regime. The Cuban government, wanting to ensure Venezuelan dependency on
   Cuban security, also had a role in one of the more controversial articles
   in the organic law, which allows for foreign nationals (read: Cubans) who
   have graduated from Venezuelan defense institutions to earn the rank of
   officer in the Venezuelan armed forces.

    

   For Chavez to feel more politically secure, some internal housecleaning in
   the armed forces was to be expected. The clause in the organic law that
   forces officers into retirement if they are not promoted after two years
   is designed to do just that. Chavez and his military elite have been
   running a system in which political allegiance frequently supercedes
   military merit when it comes to awarding promotions. If, however, an
   officer is deemed as ideologically opposed to the regime, he is often
   forced into retirement.

    

   While the regime has made considerably headway in cleaning house in the
   army, navy and air force, the National Guard has long been a point of
   contention for the Venezuelan leader. This is primarily because out of all
   the military services, the National Guard has historically had the
   strongest relationship with the United States. This relationship dates
   back to the 1980s, when Caracas and Washington were cooperating on
   countering narcotrafficking. CIA and DEA trainers were operating in
   Venezuela at the time and worked closely with the National Guard. Chavez
   envisioned breaking up the National Guard completely and replacing it with
   his own version of a Territorial Guard comprised of hundreds of thousands
   of civilian military reservists and active duty military personnel who
   could engage in a**asymmetrical wara** against an external threat like the
   United States. The National Guard fought its abolition by invoking the
   1999 Constitution that lists the National Guard as one of the four
   elements of the Armed Forces. However, the internal security force is
   still subject to periodic purges. Notably, when Chavez decided to
   restructure the Armed Forces into five strategic defense regions, he
   assigned the National Guard commander to the Western region that consists
   of the states of FalcA^3n Lara, Trujillo, MA(c)rida, TA!chira and Zulia.
   This is an area where the political opposition in Venezuela is
   concentrated, which allows Chaveza**s military allies to more easily
   designate officers as political supporters or dissenters when it comes
   time to promote or force members into retirement.

    

   Chavez has attempted to make up for any lingering dissent within the armed
   forces through the creation of the National Bolivarian Militia (NBM) in
   2007 out of some 110,000 reservists, and has since reportedly grown the
   force to roughly 300,000. Efforts are also underway to bolster the NBM
   with peasant recruits and the possible formation of a marine militia
   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100301_venezuela_calls_marine_militia.
   The purpose of the militias is to essentially act as a security orce at
   the behest of the president. However, the incorporation of the NBM into
   the Armed Forces structure has caused substantial consternation amongst
   several within the military elite. STRATFOR sources have reported on how
   the defense ministry in particular has resisted the deployment and
   armament of these militias. For now, the militia training exercises are
   used as photo opportunities to demonstrate a military force ideologically
   bound to the regime. If the president chooses to put them to use, however,
   he could face significant opposition from within the military elite. A
   STRATFOR source claims that the defense ministry has kept tabs on the
   militiaa**s activities by maintaining physical control over their weapons
   arsenal, which consists mainly of AK-103 and AK-104 assault rifles
   acquired from Russia.

    

   With economic conditions worsening, an electricity crisis turning critical
   and the political opposition beginning to rise to the occasion, Chavez is
   walking a careful balance between bolstering his internal security force
   and keeping his generals in check. Any significant use of the militias
   would likely be an option of last resort for the regime, which will depend
   primarily on cash handouts to maintain support. It thus becomes all the
   more critical for the government to ensure that revenues keep flowing from
   the countrya**s oil production, but that strategy may also be running into
   trouble, as illustrated by recent strikes by PDVSA contract workers
   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100415_venezuela_reprieve_guri_dam in
   the northeastern state of Monagas who are demanding that the state oil
   firm pay wages that were due in January. If PDVSA finances are in serious
   trouble, then the countrya**s main source of revenue a** and thus
   political insurance a** would also be in jeopardy. Meanwhile, Cuba is
   well-positioned to further entrench itself in the Venezuelan security and
   intelligence apparatus as the Chavez governmenta**s vulnerabilities
   continue to rise.

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-05 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/122005_re-for-edit-cat4-ven-cleaning-house-in-the-armed-forces-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>122544</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111
</title>
    <description>   this dude really gives the impression that Moscow calls the shots in Kiev

   so basically, Med gets pissed b/c Timo is blowing Putin and not him, so he
   whines to Putin and says drop the B and get behind Yanu like me. Putin
   says fine, Yanu gets excited and oversteps his boundaries, and now Putin
   is like fix this shit Med and Med is like okay, but we dont know what Med
   is actually gonna do to slap Yanu around

   so what's the couterargument to this? Does Russia really have this much
   influence over the situation?  this is something we need to address in
   ukraine reassessment

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marc Lanthemann" &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

   CODE: UA111
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Kiev
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch.
   But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps
   this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to
   begin with.

    

   You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in
   power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew
   Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to
   solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be
   Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most
   easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got
   her in trouble and arrested.

    

   But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no
   respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev
   made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a
   deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if
   Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being
   the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU,
   military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension
   it had been pushing for.

    

   So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009,
   the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing
   to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of
   demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally.

    

   Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev
   to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing
   against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever
   will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/122544_re-alpha-insight-ukraine-moscow-kiev-spat-ua111-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>122698</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111
</title>
    <description>   this dude really gives the impression that Moscow calls the shots in Kiev

   so basically, Med gets pissed b/c Timo is blowing Putin and not him, so he
   whines to Putin and says drop the B and get behind Yanu like me. Putin
   says fine, Yanu gets excited and oversteps his boundaries, and now Putin
   is like fix this shit Med and Med is like okay, but we dont know what Med
   is actually gonna do to slap Yanu around

   so what's the couterargument to this? Does Russia really have this much
   influence over the situation?  this is something we need to address in
   ukraine reassessment

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marc Lanthemann" &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

   CODE: UA111
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Kiev
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch.
   But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps
   this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to
   begin with.

    

   You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in
   power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew
   Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to
   solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be
   Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most
   easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got
   her in trouble and arrested.

    

   But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no
   respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev
   made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a
   deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if
   Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being
   the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU,
   military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension
   it had been pushing for.

    

   So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009,
   the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing
   to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of
   demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally.

    

   Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev
   to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing
   against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever
   will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-09-14 20:55:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/122698_re-alpha-insight-ukraine-moscow-kiev-spat-ua111-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>123320</id>
    <title>Re: noble energy
</title>
    <description>   By all means talk to him. Itd be interesting to get his view. Turks are
   out of control.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2011 21:35:49 -0500 (CDT)
   To: George Friedman&lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: noble energy
   As I'm sure you are aware, Noble energy is trying to drill in Greek Cyprus
   waters, and Turkey is raising hell over it. Basically, because they can
   since Greece is a mess right now anyway.  The move to deploy frigates
   seems to be part of this.

   I was just talking to David (the bf), whose best friend's dad is the head
   of Noble Energy. They were all having dinner in houston and the dad was
   talking about how the Turks are creating a nightmare for them with this
   whole warships thing. David was telling him about what I do, and how we do
   a lot of work with Turkey, and the dad wants to talk to me about this.
   Might turn into a business opportunity, you never know. But this family
   has houses all over the world, the dad speaks 10 languages, living in
   Cyprus right now, used to be in Quito and before that, Vietnam, has all
   kinds of crazy connections and crazy dealings with shady people. I might
   be able to learn some interesting things from him. And maybe we could help
   them understand what the Turks are actually going to do...

   Background on the issue that Emre wrote up earlier-

   This is more of a summary of the current situation and questions that
   arise from it. Please feel free to add your comments/questions before I
   tap sources.

   Below is the area where American Noble Energy is supposed to start
   exploratory oil and natural gas drillings in early October according to
   the right granted by Greek Cyprus in 2008. (Attention: Leviathan and Tamar
   are Israeli wells, not Cyprus)

   As far as energy matters are concerned, there is not much to say. Since no
   exploration took place yet, there is no estimation of reserves that would
   tells us how far Cyprus would be willing to push the deal. However, given
   the gigantic reserves found in Israeli offshore fields, ita**s very
   possible that the same would be the case for Cyprus. At least this is the
   hope of Greek Cyprus.

   As you know, Turkish Cyprus is only recognized by Turkey, whereas Greek
   Cyprus is the official government of the entire island and a member of the
   EU, which is not recognized by Turkey. So, this is an issue of national
   sovereignty more than energy production, though Turkey does not want to
   lose energy reserves as well.

   What has happened so far;

   Greek Cyprus side:

   - Greek Cyprus FM sought political support in Israel. They keep saying
   that Israel supports them, but I really doubt that Israel would get
   involved in this controversy for Greek Cyprus while it is having its a)
   own offshore reserves dispute with Lebanon b) troubles with Turkey.

   - Greece is mostly quiet, for a good reason. Athens gives support to
   Cyprus, though only rhetorical. I also have not seen any important
   statement from the EU.

   - Greek Cyprus says it will block energy chapter of Turkey/EU membership
   negotiations. Greek Cyprus has already blocked eight chapters anyway and
   membership talks are in coma. So, this threat does not mean anything for
   Turkey. Even if it did, EU members have their own individual energy
   dealings with Turkey.

   - No statement from Noble Energy yet, neither from the US government.

   Overall, Greek Cyprus has nothing that can stop Turkey.

   Turkey side:

   - Turkey says TPAO will start drillings there as well. I am not sure if
   TPAO is able to do that on its own. Fourth well in the Black Sea oil
   exploration project is operated by TPAO, but the platform is owned by
   Petrobras. (to be replaced by ExxonMobil). So, this does not look very
   credible to me.

   - Most significant tool is, though, Turkeya**s decision to put military
   options on the table to be used in eastern Med, seemingly against Israel.
   Turkey never said it would use it against Cyprus, but if Turkey considers
   eastern Med as its turf that it is ready to defend militarily, there is
   not so much that Greek Cyprus can do to prevent it. This also increases
   risks for Noble Energy when it comes to investment decisions.

   - Turkish MFA also said today that Turkey and Turkish Cyprus agreed to
   conclude a continental shelf delimitation agreement should the Greek
   Cypriot administration proceed with offshore drilling activities in the
   south of the island. Meaningless political/legal move.

   Questions moving forward:

   Noble Energy: What are the plans of Noble Energy? Are they planning to
   move on with the deal? If so, how and when? Is there Noble Energy's
   platform off Cyprus? 

   Turkey: Is Turkey floating the idea of using the military threat against
   Cyprus? Can TPAO drill in southern Cyprus?

   Cyprus: What are the options of Greek Cyprus? What can they do to move on?

    

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-09-16 04:42:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/123320_re-noble-energy-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>124314</id>
    <title>[latam] BRAZIL BRIEFS 110913
</title>
    <description>   POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

     * The President Dilma and the opposition party leader Geraldo Alckmin
       (PSDB), governor of Sao Paulo, have taken new steps in approximation
       by announcing a partnership in projects nation-wide (although most are
       concentrated in Sao Paulo's transport infrastructure), the total price
       of which surpass R$ 27 billion (roughly 16.8 billion dollars). This
       approximation is worrying to some sectors of both the PT and the PSDB.
   ECONOMY

     * Latin American countries could be trading without using U.S. dollars
       by next year according to Brazil's Development, Industry and Foreign
       Trade Minister.
     * The Goverment could reduce the tax on industrial products in an effort
       to promote jobs and growth in the industrial sector.
     * The Government has approved a law that opens the market for cable
       television to foreign and domestic telecommunications company. It is
       expected that the amount of consumers of cable TVs will double.

   ENERGY/MINING

     * PetroChina plans to add 1.1 million tonnes of biofuels production
       capacity and import 470,000 tonnes of those fuels by 2015. Brazil is
       one of the countries from which it will import from.
     * The Folha has publicize the incoming "invasion" of China into the
       offshore oil sector of the Brazilian economy. Chinese investments in
       offshore oil and gas should sum up to 400 billion dollars until 2020
       (at current rate).
   SECURITY

     *  Brazilian fed police encountered gunfire on Parana River and accuse
       Paraguayan Navy of protecting drug traffickers; Navy denies it
   MILITARY

     * Brazil, Uruguay Def Ministers discussed importance of Uruguay's
       Eastern waterways for both countries, trade through Sao Paulo.
     * The Swedish supreme commander of the armed forces, Sverker Goranson,
       is in an official visit to Brazil from the 11th to the 15th. He will
       tour military bases, meet with the high command of the Armed Forces
       and take part in dialogue.

   'Latin American dollar-less trading may start 2012'
   MONDAY, 12 SEPTEMBER 2011

   http://www.colombiareports.com/colombia-news/economy/18921-colombia-brazil-dollar-less-trading-may-commence-2012.html

   Latin American countries could be trading without using U.S. dollars by
   next year according to Brazil's Development, Industry and Foreign Trade
   Minister.

   Financial publication Portafolio reported that Fernando Pimentel, who
   attended Colombia's National Association of Foreign Trade congress and met
   with his Colombian counterpart Sergio Diaz-Granados, said that trading in
   local currencies is a concrete step towards regional integration.

   The idea for dollar-less trading was suggested by Colombian President Juan
   Manuel Santos at a UNASUR meeting. Pimentel met with Santos to express
   Brazil's interest in the idea and a working group of UNASUR foreign
   ministers has been set up in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

   Colombia and Brazil have been working to improve economic ties between the
   neighboring nations. In August, the first Colombia-Brazil investment forum
   was held to asses the business opportunities the countries can offer each
   other.

   Commenting on Colombia's trade with Brazil, the minister said "the trade
   balance is in favor of Brazil however the balance of capital is in favor
   of Colombia. A mechanism can be built so that the balance in favor of
   Brazil remains in pesos and can then be used by Brazilian companies
   investing in Colombia."

   PetroChina plans to boost biofuels capacity

   http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL3E7K81YZ20110908

   Thu Sep 8, 2011 11:14am GMT Print | Single Page [-] Text [+]
   TIANJIN, China, Sept 8 (Reuters) - PetroChina plans to add 1.1 million
   tonnes of biofuels production capacity and import 470,000 tonnes of those
   fuels by 2015, a company official said on Thursday, as the oil firm aims
   to tap more alternative energy sources.

   Of the planned production capacity, fuel ethanol will be 933,000 tonnes a
   year and biodiesel will be 165,000 tonnes a year, Fu Xingguo, deputy chief
   engineer of PetroChina's Petrochemical Research Institute, said at an
   industry conference.

   The planned biofuel imports, which are likely from countries such as
   Brazil, will be blended with regular fuels and sold to southern Chinese
   provinces, he said.

   Fu said some aviation biofuel the company produced will be used in a test
   flight next month. He did not give more details.

   China has around 1.52 million tonnes of fuel ethanol capacity which mainly
   use grains as feedstocks, according to Fu.

   "We have to look for non-grain feedstocks, and those are in short
   supplies," he said.

   PetroChina currently has only small biofuel production capacity.
   (Reporting by Jim Bai and Chen Aizhu)

   HIDROVIA DEL ESTE
   13.9.2011 - http://www.lr21.com.uy/politica/471451-hidrovia-del-este

   El ministro de Defensa Nacional, Eleuterio Fernandez Huidobro, informo
   ayer al presidente Jose Mujica sobre las reuniones bilaterales que mantuvo
   con su par brasileno, Celso Amorim, encuentro en el cual se analizo la
   carta nautica de la laguna Merin. Fernandez Huidobro se refirio a la
   importancia que tiene tanto para Brasil como para Uruguay la hidrovia del
   Este, "un sistema de lagunas y canales integrados entre si y al sistema
   vial y ferroviario, por el que se puede llegar hasta San Pablo.

   Supuestos marinos paraguayos se tirotean con federales en el Parana
   13 de Septiembre de 2011 00:00-
   http://www.abc.com.py/nota/supuestos-marinos-paraguayos-se-tirotean-con-federales-en-el-parana/

   Presuntos efectivos de la Marina paraguaya y de la Policia Federal del
   Brasil se enfrentaron a tiros en las aguas del rio Parana durante el
   ultimo fin de semana. Los militares supuestamente protegian a
   narcotraficantes y cigarrilleros que operan desde los puertos clandestinos
   de la zona. El comandante de la base naval de Ciudad del Este, capitan de
   navio Elpidio Moran, dijo anoche que escucho los disparos, pero nego que
   efectivos de su unidad hayan estado involucrados en la balacera.

   La Policia Federal exhibe en su base de Foz de Yguazu las dos
   embarcaciones repletas de mercaderias de contrabando decomisadas el fin de
   semana, en aguas del rio Parana.
   CIUDAD DEL ESTE (Fermin Jara, de nuestra redaccion regional). El
   enfrentamiento entre las dos fuerzas se registro cerca de las 21:00 del
   viernes ultimo, durante un operativo anticontrabando que desplegaban
   efectivos de la Policia Federal del Brasil, en la barranca del rio Parana.
    

   Los efectivos policiales del vecino pais informaron que divisaron varias
   embarcaciones que cruzaban desde el lado paraguayo hacia el Brasil.  

   La lancha de la Policia Federal intercepto las embarcaciones que estaban
   con drogas y mercaderias varias, especialmente cigarrillos. Tras la
   intervencion, los agentes policiales fueron blanco de disparos de armas de
   fuego de grueso calibre que provenian de la margen paraguaya del rio
   Parana, donde esta la base de la Armada paraguaya, de acuerdo al informe
   de la Policia Federal.  

   Igualmente abrieron fuego contra los federales desde dos embarcaciones,
   que se presume eran de la Marina paraguaya, que daban proteccion a los
   contrabandistas y traficantes de drogas.  

   Ante la agresion, dice el parte policial, los agentes federales
   respondieron de la misma manera. El tiroteo duro cerca de 40 minutos.  

   La balacera entre ambas fuerzas fue aprovechada por los criminales para
   regresar al lado paraguayo.

   Alli se refugiaron en los puertos clandestinos y de esa forma salvaron sus
   mercaderias.  

   El enfrentamiento ocurrio a menos de 300 metros del Puente de la Amistad y
   fue escuchado y observado por los pobladores de los barrios Juan E.
   O'Leary y San Miguel. Centenares de personas que cruzaban el Puente de la
   Amistad a esa hora tambien presenciaron el bochornoso episodio.  

   Version de la Marina

   El comandante de la base naval de la capital del Alto Parana, capitan de
   navio Elpidio Moran, dijo anoche que escucho los tiros que se produjeron
   el viernes pasado, pero nego que efectivos de la unidad bajo su comando
   hayan estado involucrados.

   Indico en cuanto a los disparos que inclusive hubo rafagas de pistolas
   automaticas, pero que solamente fue en el lado brasileno. Sostuvo que hubo
   neblina en ese horario y no se pudo observar nada.  

   El pasado fin de semana la Policia Federal decomiso cajas de cigarrillos y
   drogas que pasaban en embarcaciones, desde la margen paraguaya del lago de
   Itaipu, hacia el Brasil.  

   Operacion

   Por otro lado, ayer la Policia Federal desbarato una gavilla internacional
   de narcotraficantes y contrabandistas de cigarrillos integrada por
   paraguayos y brasilenos quienes operaban en los puertos clandestinos
   ubicados en la ribera del rio Parana.  

   Atendiendo a los datos de investigadores, la gavilla traficaba una gran
   cantidad de drogas desde territorio paraguayo, distribuida en diversas
   ciudades brasilenas. Fueron detenidas 19 personas.  

   La Policia Federal dijo que recien hoy dara mayores informaciones sobre la
   megaoperacion que se realizo en la frontera con el Paraguay.

   FF.AA. paraguayas desmienten tiroteo con Policia brasilena
   13 de Septiembre de 2011 09:04-
   http://www.abc.com.py/nota/ff-aa-paraguaya-desmiente-tiroteo-policia-brasilena/
    
   El coronel Luis Gonzalez, vocero de las Fuerzas Armadas, senalo que la
   Armada paraguaya no se involucro en un tiroteo registrado en aguas del rio
   Paraguay el viernes ultimo. Fue al salir al paso de la insinuacion de la
   Policia Federal del Brasil de que sus agentes fueron atacados por
   efectivos de la Marina.
    
   Oficialmente, las Fuerzas Armadas desconocen el supuesto enfrentamiento
   entre marinos paraguayos y federales brasilenos, registrado en la noche
   del viernes ultimo.

   En conversacion con ABC Digital, el coronel Gonzalez desmintio
   categoricamente la posibilidad.

   Comento que recibio un informe del comandante de la base naval de Ciudad
   el Este, capitan de navio Elpidio Moran, quien rechazo la version de que
   efectivos a su cargo habrian efectuado disparos.

   "El comandante estaba en las inmediaciones de la guardia con algunos
   personales (sic), se escucharon 14 tiros al otro lado (de la frontera)",
   relato.

   Al ser abordado sobre las insinuaciones de los policias federales,
   Gonzalez senalo que "vamos a hacer nuestra evaluacion, pero logicamente
   confiamos en lo que nos dice el comandante de la base naval".

   Senalo que la Policia Federal podria hacer algun reclamo formal a traves
   de la Cancilleria u otra instancia para iniciar una investigacion.

   Segun trascendio en la vispera, los efectivos policiales de Brasil fueron
   atacados luego de interceptar una embarcacion que cruzo la frontera hacia
   el vecino pais con cargas de contrabando.

   Los agentes -que igualmente abrieron fuego- senalan que los tiros venian
   de la margen paraguaya, donde se encuentra la Armada.

   Dilma e Alckmin se reunem por parceria de R$ 27 bi

   12 de setembro de 2011 | 22h 40

   http://www.estadao.com.br/noticias/nacional,dilma-e-alckmin-se-reunem-por-parceria-de-r-27-bi,771743,0.htm

   Em mais um capitulo da recente aproximac,ao politico-administrativa, a
   presidente Dilma Rousseff (PT) e o governador paulista Geraldo Alckmin
   (PSDB) encontram-se nesta terc,a-feira, 13, para anunciar parcerias em
   projetos e iniciativas que ultrapassam R$ 27 bilhoes.

   A petista e o tucano se reunirao oficialmente para anunciar investimentos
   no eixo norte do Rodoanel, mas a pauta de medio prazo entre os dois
   governos vai alem da area dos transportes.

   Dilma e Alckmin devem tratar de outros assuntos de interesse das duas
   gestoes, como a ampliac,ao do limite de endividamento do Estado, tema caro
   `a administrac,ao paulista, a parceria em projetos habitacionais e o
   investimento em outras obras de infraestrutura, como o Ferroanel e a
   Hidrovia Parana-Tiete.

   E a segunda vez em menos de um mes que Dilma visitara o Palacio dos
   Bandeirantes. O encontro desperta polemica em setores do PSDB e do PT.

   O ex-presidente Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva foi convidado para a cerimonia,
   mas sua assessoria disse que ele nao podera participar. Lula nao tem
   acompanhado Dilma em eventos oficiais. Ex-governadores que tocaram os
   investimentos do Rodoanel, como Jose Serra e Alberto Goldman, tambem
   seriam convidados.

   Dilma e Alckmin anunciam investimento de R$ 6,4 bilhoes no eixo norte do
   Rodoanel - R$ 1,7 bilhao e da Uniao. A parceria no projeto, que vai ate
   2015, foi assinada em 1999, quando o presidente da Republica era o tucano
   Fernando Henrique Cardoso.

   Alem do Rodoanel, Estado e Uniao trabalham juntos para tirar do papel a
   Hidrovia Tiete-Parana, orc,ada em R$ 1,5 bilhao, e o trecho norte do
   Ferroanel, estimado em R$ 1,2 bilhao.

   O governo paulista tambem quer de Dilma a autorizac,ao para ampliar o
   limite de endividamento em R$ 17 bilhoes ate 2013. O assunto e prioritario
   na agenda de Alckmin, que tratou do tema com o ministro Guido Mantega
   (Fazenda) na semana passada.

   Depois de anunciar a unificac,ao do programa social do Estado com o
   Bolsa-Familia, o tucano e a petista farao ainda parceria na area de
   habitac,ao. Sera anunciado ate o fim do mes uma complementac,ao de ate R$
   20 mil por parte do Estado ao teto de financiamento do Minha Casa, Minha
   Vida, que hoje e de R$ 65 mil. A ac,ao pode alcanc,ar, pelo menos, 70 mil
   familias.

   Polemica. "Dilma e autoritaria na relac,ao com o Congresso, mas busca
   compensar isso no trato com os governadores", afirmou Sergio Guerra,
   presidente do PSDB. Para o deputado Devanir Ribeiro (PT-SP), "a relac,ao e
   politica e nao partidaria".

   A aproximac,ao causa polemica em ambos os partidos. Para os tucanos,
   Alckmin opera a aproximac,ao de olho em recursos que podem ajudar sua
   reeleic,ao em 2014. Mas acabaria enfraquecendo o discurso oposicionista
   que o partido propaga no plano nacional. Os petistas avaliam que o dialogo
   da presidente com o governador pode fortalecer ainda mais os tucanos no
   Estado, governado pelo PSDB desde 1995.

   No mes passado, quando Dilma e Alckmin assinaram a unificac,ao dos
   programas sociais, petistas criticaram a extensao da bandeira social do
   governo aos tucanos. Alguns integrantes do PSDB, por sua vez, avaliavam
   ser mais estrategico para o partido fortalecer seus proprios projetos na
   area social.

   --------------------------------------------------
   In a more recent chapter of political-administrative approach, the
   President Rousseff (PT) and Sao Paulo Governor Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) are
   on Tuesday, 13, to announce partnerships in projects and initiatives that
   exceed $ 27 billion.

   The PSDB and the PT will gather to officially announce investment in the
   Ring Road along the north, but the medium-term agenda between the two
   countries goes beyond the transport sector.

   Dilma Alckmin and must deal with other matters of interest to the two
   terms, such as the expansion of the limit of indebtedness of the state, a
   subject dear to the Sao Paulo government, the partnership in housing
   projects and investment in other infrastructure, such as Ferroanel-Parana
   Waterway and Tiete.

   It is the second time in less than a month Dilma visit the Bandeirantes
   Palace. The meeting arouses controversy in sectors of the PSDB and the PT.

   Former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was invited to the ceremony,
   but his office said he could not participate. Dilma Lula has not kept up
   at official events. Former governors who played the investments of the
   Beltway, like Serra and Jose Alberto Goldman, would also be invited.

   Dilma and Alckmin announced investment of $ 6.4 billion in the Ring Road
   along the north - -L- 1.7 billion of the Union's partnership in the
   project, which runs until 2015, was signed in 1999, when the president was
   Toucan Fernando Henrique Cardoso.

   Beyond the Beltway, State and Union work together to take part to the
   Tiete-Parana, budgeted at R $ 1.5 billion, and the words northern
   Ferroanel, estimated at $ 1.2 billion.

   The Sao Paulo government also wants to Dilma authorization to extend the
   debt limit from $ 17 billion by 2013. The issue is high on the agenda of
   Alckmin, who addressed the issue with the Minister Guido Mantega (Finance)
   last week.

   After announcing the unification of the social state with the Bolsa
   Familia, the PSDB and the PT will also partnership in the area of
   &amp;#8203;&amp;#8203;housing. Will be announced by the end of the month a
   supplement of up to $ 20,000 from the state funding to the ceiling of the
   My House, My Life, which today is $ 65,000. The action can achieve at
   least 70 000 families.

   Controversy. "Dilma is authoritative in relation to the Congress, but
   attempt to compensate for it in dealing with the governors," said Sergio
   Guerra, president of the PSDB. For the deputy Devanir Ribeiro (PT), "the
   relationship is political and not partisan."

   The approach sparked controversy in both parties. For the toucans, Alckmin
   operates the nearest eye on resources that can help his re-election in
   2014. But the speech would weaken opposition party that propagates at the
   national level. The PT evaluate the president's dialogue with the governor
   can further strengthen the toucans in the state, governed by the PSDB in
   1995.

   Last month, when Dilma and Alckmin signed the unification of social
   programs, criticized the extension of the PT flag to the government's
   social toucans. Some members of the PSDB, in turn, assessed to be more
   strategic for the party to strengthen their own projects in the social
   area.

   Governo pode reduzir IPI para manter empregos em montadoras

   13/09/2011 - 08h44

   http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/974369-governo-pode-reduzir-ipi-para-manter-empregos-em-montadoras.shtml

   Hoje na Folha O governo e as centrais sindicais devem se reunir nesta
   semana para discutir acordo para manter o nivel de emprego nas montadoras
   em tempos de crise, informa a coluna Monica Bergamo na Folha.

   A integra da coluna esta disponivel para assinantes do jornal e do UOL
   (empresa controlada pelo Grupo Folha, que edita a Folha).

   Em pauta esta a possibilidade de o governo diminuir o IPI para empresas
   que usarem maior numero de pec,as fabricadas no Brasil. As centrais
   defendem cota de 80% de pec,as nacionais.

   TV paga vai dobrar no pais com mais concorrencia, preve governo

   13/09/2011 - 10h16

   http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/974407-tv-paga-vai-dobrar-no-pais-com-mais-concorrencia-preve-governo.shtml

   O governo estima que o numero de assinantes de TV por assinatura vai
   dobrar, passando dos atuais 11 milhoes para 22 milhoes, pelo aumento da
   concorrencia e consequente reduc,ao nos prec,os.

   Banda larga somara incentivo de R$ 4 bilhoes

   A projec,ao se deve `a sanc,ao ontem pela presidente Dilma Rousseff da lei
   que abre o mercado de TV a cabo para empresas de telecomunicac,oes
   nacionais e estrangeiras e define cotas nacionais de programac,ao.

   A nova lei unifica a regulamentac,ao de TV por assinatura -via satelite, a
   cabo ou por micro-ondas. Deixa de valer a lei para TV a cabo que proibia
   estrangeiros de controlar empresas na area.

   O veto tambem valia para as nacionais, mas a agencia reguladora Anatel ja
   estava mudando essa determinac,ao.

   O governo conta tambem com o aumento do servic,o de internet por banda
   larga no pais com a nova legislac,ao. "Acreditamos que pelo menos um
   terc,o dos assinantes de TV paga no pais contrate tambem internet rapida
   por banda larga com a nova lei", afirmou ontem o ministro Paulo Bernardo
   (Comunicac,oes).

   A equipe de Dilma entendeu que as regras que limitavam a oferta de TV a
   cabo desencorajavam investimento em redes de fibra optica. As empresas de
   telefonia fixa poderao vender os chamados "combos" de TV paga, telefone e
   banda larga.

   Na abertura do congresso Futurecom, em Sao Paulo, Bernardo anunciou acordo
   com o ministro Guido Mantega (Fazenda) para a eliminac,ao do PIS/Cofins na
   implantac,ao de novas redes com o objetivo de acelerar a oferta de banda
   larga.

   A renuncia fiscal pode chegar a R$ 4 bilhoes em quatro anos. Para se
   beneficiarem do incentivo nas grandes cidades, as empresas terao de
   construir redes em areas consideradas distantes.

   Pelos calculos do Ministerio das Comunicac,oes, serao necessarios
   investimentos de R$ 70 bilhoes ate 2014.

   Para o presidente da Oi, Francisco Valim, a isenc,ao doe PIS/Cofins "e
   musica para os ouvidos". Antonio Carlos Valente, dirigente da Telefonica,
   elogiou a reduc,ao do tributo, mas criticou a contrapartida por a
   desonerac,ao embutir "um onus".

   VETOS

   Dilma vetou dois pontos do texto da lei sobre a TV paga aprovado pelo
   Congresso.

   Um deles deixaria que o servic,o de classificac,ao indicativa na TV paga
   ficasse sob a responsabilidade das empresas, e nao do Ministerio da
   Justic,a. A outra permitiria a cobranc,a do Servic,o de Atendimento ao
   Consumidor.

   A Anatel tem ate 180 dias para regulamentar a nova lei.
   ------------------------------------------------
   The government estimates that the number of pay TV subscribers will
   double, from the current 11 million to 22 million, by increasing
   competition and the consequent reduction in prices.

   Broadband incentive will add $ 4 billion

   The projection is due to the penalty yesterday by President Rousseff law
   that opens the cable TV market for telecom companies and foreign and
   national programming quotas set.

   The new law unifies the regulation of cable TV, satellite, cable or
   microwave. Fails to enforce the law for cable TV prohibiting foreign
   control of companies in the area.

   The veto was also true for the national, but the regulator Anatel was
   changing that determination.

   The government also has increased service broadband internet in the
   country with the new legislation. "We believe that at least one third of
   the pay-TV subscribers in the country also hire a broadband fast internet
   with the new law," he said yesterday the Minister Paulo Bernardo
   (Communications).

   The staff Dilma understood that the rules that limited the supply of cable
   discouraged investment in fiber optic networks. The fixed telephone
   companies can sell so-called "combos" of pay TV, telephone and broadband.

   Opening the conference Futurecom in Sao Paulo, Bernardo announced an
   agreement with the Minister Guido Mantega (Finance) for the elimination of
   PIS / Cofins in deploying new networks in order to accelerate the
   provision of broadband.

   The tax breaks could reach $ 4 billion in four years. To take advantage of
   the incentive in the big cities, companies will have to build networks in
   areas considered remote.

   Calculations by the Ministry of Communications, will require investments
   of $ 70 billion by 2014.

   The president of Hi, Francisco Valim, the exemption doe PIS / Cofins "is
   music to the ears." Antonio Carlos Valente, head of Telefonica, praised
   the reduction of the tax, but criticized the exchange for the exemption
   embed "a burden".

   VETOS

   Dilma vetoed two points in the text of the law on pay TV approved by
   Congress.

   One that would leave its ratings on the indicative pay TV would remain
   under the responsibility of companies, not the Ministry of Justice. The
   other would allow the collection of the Department of Customer Services.

   The FCC has 180 days to regulate the new law.

   Invasao' chinesa chega para o pre-sal

   13/09/2011 - 07h30

   http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/974256-invasao-chinesa-chega-para-o-pre-sal.shtml

   Hoje na Folha De olho em encomendas que devem somar US$ 400 bilhoes ate
   2020, empresas chinesas do setor de petroleo e gas preparam uma especie de
   "invasao" ao Brasil, informa reportagem de Cirilo Junior para a Folha.

   A integra esta disponivel para assinantes do jornal e do UOL (empresa
   controlada pelo Grupo Folha, que edita a Folha).

   Pelo menos 20 fornecedores da cadeia de bens e servic,os de petroleo
   desembarcam ainda em 2011 no Brasil, em busca da forte demanda oriunda
   especialmente de projetos na camada pre-sal, liderados na maior parte pela
   Petrobras.

   Depois de investir principalmente em telecomunicac,oes e em equipamentos
   de construc,oes rodoviarias, a nova leva de recursos chineses no Brasil
   sera destinada `a cadeia petrolifera, segundo o presidente da Camara de
   Comercio e Industria Brasil-China, Charles Tang.

   "O Brasil e um mercado importantissimo, e as empresas chinesas querem
   investir", afirma. Inicialmente, essas companhias chegam abrindo
   representac,oes por aqui. A perspectiva, segundo Tang, e que muitas delas
   passem a produzir no Brasil.

   Vai se instalar aqui, por exemplo, a Honghua, fabricante de sondas que
   recentemente ganhou contrato para fornecer dois equipamentos de
   perfurac,ao terrestres para a Queiroz Galvao Oleo e Gas. Outra companhia
   que prepara a entrada no pais e a CIMC Raffles, que ja forneceu duas
   plataformas de perfurac,ao para o grupo Schahin.
   -------------------
   Today in Leaf eye on orders that must add up to $ 400 billion by 2020,
   Chinese companies in the oil and gas are preparing a kind of "invasion" to
   Brazil, tells story of Cyril Sheet for Junior.

   The full text is available to subscribers of the newspaper and UOL
   (subsidiary of Grupo Folha, which publishes Folha).

   At least 20 suppliers of goods and services chain oil has landed in Brazil
   in 2011 in search of strong demand especially coming from projects in the
   pre-salt layer, led mostly by Petrobras.

   After investing primarily in telecommunications and road construction
   equipment, the new wave of Chinese resources in Brazil will be for the oil
   chain, the president of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry Brazil-China,
   Charles Tang.

   "Brazil is an important market, and Chinese companies want to invest," he
   says. Initially, these companies even opening representations here. The
   prospect, according to Tang, is that many of them start to produce in
   Brazil.

   'll Settle here, for example, Honghua, a manufacturer of probes that
   recently won contract to supply two drilling equipment for land Queiroz
   Galvao Oil &amp; Gas Other company prepares to enter the country is the
   Raffles CIMC, which has supplied two drilling rigs for the group Schahin.

   Comandante Supremo das Forc,as Armadas da Suecia, Sverker Go:ranson,
   visita o Brasil

   12 de Setembro, 2011 - 19:08 ( Brasilia )

   http://www.defesanet.com.br/fx2/noticia/2742/Comandante-Supremo-das-Forcas-Armadas-da-Suecia--Sverker-Goranson--visita-o-Brasil-

   O General Go:ranson cumprira uma agenda oficial de 11 a 15 de setembro no
   Brasil. O proposito desta viagem e de estreitar as relac,oes bilaterais na
   area de defesa.

   A parte oficial da viagem tera inicio com uma visita de estudo `a Base
   Aerea de Anapolis - BAAN, Goias, onde os avioes E-99, do Esquadrao
   Guardiao (2-o/6-oGAV), utilizam o sistema de radar Erieye, desenvolvido na
   Suecia.

   Em Brasilia, o Comandante Supremo se encontrara com os comandantes das
   tres Forc,as Armadas do Brasil: o Comandante do Exercito,General Enzo
   Martins Peri; o Comandante da Marinha, Almirante Julio Soares de Moura
   Neto; e o Comandante da Aeronautica, Brigadeiro Juniti Saito. Ainda em
   Brasilia, o Comandante Supremo da Suecia tambem recebera informac,oes
   sobre o Centro de Instruc,ao de Guerra na Selva - CIGS.

   A visita continuara no Rio de Janeiro, com a visita do Comandante ao
   "Centro de Adestramento Almirante Marques de Leao" e a "Escola Superior de
   Guerra" - ESG. O Comandante participara de palestras no Centro Conjunto de
   Operac,oes de Paz do Brasil (CCOPAB), Centro Sergio Vieira de Mello.

   O General Go:ranson e o Comandante Supremo das Forc,as Armadas desde 2009
   e, desde 2002, e membro da Real Academia Sueca de Ciencias de Guerra
   (Kungliga krigsvetenskapsakademin). O General serviu anteriormente como
   Inspetor do Exercito, como Adido Militar da Embaixada da Suecia, em
   Washington, e tambem como Subcomandante do Batalhao da Suecia nas Forc,as
   da OTAN na Bosnia.
   ------------------------------------------------------
   General Goranson fulfill an official agenda 11-15 September in Brazil. The
   purpose of this trip is to strengthen bilateral relations in defense.

   The official part of the trip will begin with a study visit to Air Force
   Base Annapolis - BAAN, Texas, where the planes E-99, Squadron Guardian (2
   / 6 -o GAV), using the radar system Erieye, developed in Sweden.

   In Brasilia, the Supreme Commander will meet with commanders of the three
   Armed Forces of Brazil: Army Commander, General Enzo Martins Peri, the
   Navy Commander Admiral Julio Soares de Moura Neto, and the Air Force
   Commander Brigadier Juniti Saito. Also in Brasilia, the Supreme Commander
   of Sweden also receive information about the Center for War Instruction in
   the Jungle - CIGS.

   The visit will continue in Rio de Janeiro, with the visit of the Commander
   "training centers Almirante Marques de Leon" and "War College" - ESG. The
   Commander will attend lectures at the Joint Center for Peacekeeping
   Operations in Brazil (CCOPAB), Sergio Vieira de Mello Center.

   General Goranson is the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces since 2009
   and since 2002, is a member of the Royal Swedish Academy of War Sciences
   (Kungliga krigsvetenskapsakademin). The previously served as Inspector
   General of the Army, as military attache of the Embassy of Sweden in
   Washington, and as Deputy Commander of the Battalion of Sweden in the NATO
   Forces in Bosnia.
</description>
    <date>2011-09-13 18:35:44</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-02 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/124314_-latam-brazil-briefs-110913-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>rbaker@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>renato.whitaker@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>latam@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:latam@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>126171</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/CYPRUS/ENERGY - Not energy,
 it's politics - TR 325
</title>
    <description>   of course it's mostly a political issue. that's also what we wrote about
   in the diary.  lay out clearly what you would like to address in a piece

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Emre Dogru" &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, September 22, 2011 5:40:30 AM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/CYPRUS/ENERGY - Not energy, it's
   politics - TR 325

   The insight gives an interesting aspect that is totally different than
   what major media says. I think we need an update on the Cyprus issue. Even
   though I don't totally buy the "recognition" argument, it makes sense to
   me that this is a mostly political issue. Also, Israel aspect is worth
   addressing. I have maps and other technical details we can include.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, September 21, 2011 7:30:15 PM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/CYPRUS/ENERGY - Not energy, it's
   politics - TR 325

   what does he mean by intervene?  as in, that's when they'll send warships?
   i still doubt it.

   basically,t his just goes to show that Turkey is trying to play catch up
   on this issue and is hitting a ton of walls in doing so

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Emre Dogru" &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, September 21, 2011 11:19:28 AM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/CYPRUS/ENERGY - Not energy, it's
   politics - TR 325

   sorry for sending this to the list directly. meant to go through WO

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Emre Dogru" &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, September 21, 2011 7:18:38 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/CYPRUS/ENERGY - Not energy,        it's
   politics - TR 325

   CODE: TR 325
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source in Turkey, energy expert
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Energy and national security expert
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Emre
   SOURCE HANDLER: Emre

   We need to understand this development within the framework of UN mediated
   talks between the two sides in Cyprus. Ban-ki Moon said long before that
   it would announce if and when the negotiations fail between the two to
   force the two sides to find a solution. Right now, Greek Cypriots are
   trying to distract attention by bringing up the oil and natural gas
   exploration issue. Their strategy is to prevent the recognition of Turkish
   Cyprus at any cost [though source did not explain how recognition would be
   possible]. Turkey does not care the EU anyway. Ankara will suspend the
   talks with the EU when Greek Cyprus assumes presidency.

   At tactical level, Cyprus wants to take advantage of the dispute between
   Israel and Turkey. This is why it started with 12th bloc. It's true that
   the geological zone is closer to Leviathan and there it is promising, but
   the first motivation is Turkish/Israeli dispute. Israel also wants to show
   to Turkey the losses of downgrading ties. But of course it does not show
   explicit support. It's possible, for example, to leak a report in Israeli
   media that its warships are sailing in eastern Med for supervision,
   without explicitly saying supervision for what.
   Apart from Erdogan's rhetoric, there will be no conflict in eastern Med.
   TPAO may send seismic vessels escorted by Turkish frigates, which is not
   significant. Shell may go there or another platform that is currently in
   the Black Sea. They may shows flags to each other and engage in a
   dog-fight but nothing more. Greek Cyprus cannot show military force to
   Turkey. But Turkey cannot remain silent because if it does, it will be
   weak in Aegean against Greece. Therefore this is a dual game. Nobody wants
   a fight in eastern Med, where Russian, Israeli and US fleets are present.
   Nobody can take the risk of getting involved in such an adventure. Turkey
   cannot afford this and may overreact.

   I arranged exactly the same deal for the Turkish government in 2007. Shell
   accepted to work in blocs 3, 7, 11, 12 on behalf of the Turkis Cyprus
   government. However, I could not convince the AKP government. Now, Greek
   Cyprus is doing the same against us.

   The process has three phases:

   1) Exclusive economic zone agreement
   2) Drilling
   3) Production

   Again, apart from Erdogan's stance, Turkish state's position is to
   intervene when Greek Cyprus reaches to production phase. And there is
   still one more year to go until that stage. Till then, Greek Cyprus is
   free to pay the costs of drilling&amp;exploration.

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-09-22 16:11:17</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/126171_re-alpha-insight-turkey-cyprus-energy-not-energy-it-s.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>130364</id>
    <title>Syria piece in our confed partner
</title>
    <description>   Reva - I forwarded our Syria piece to our confed partner Sabah and they
   will reprint it tomorrow. My PoC called me to say this and I told him that
   he can also ask you some questions about the stability of the Syrian
   regime and integrate your thoughts to their article. Can you please call
   him at +90 554 879 8030 this morning (mind the time difference)? His name
   is Alparslan Akkus.
   Cheers

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-09-30 12:56:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-09 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/130364_syria-piece-in-our-confed-partner-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>confed@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>131141</id>
    <title>G3 - ROMANIA/US - Romania Wants To Cooperate With USA In Energy
	Security
</title>
    <description>   this seems to have been on the agenda when Romanian prez visited the US
   so, on that line think it deserves a rep.
   It's also the first time I actually see a Ro official calling for US to be
   involved in the 5+2 talks on Transnistria
   Vineri, 30 septembrie 2011 / 18:47:50

   Romania Wants To Cooperate With USA In Energy Security

   BUCHAREST (MEDIAFAX) - Bogdan Aurescu, state secretary for European
   Affairs, on Friday informed Michael Morrow, director with the Central
   Europe Bureau of the U.S. Department of State, of Romania's interest in
   cooperation for energy security, including through a transfer of know-how
   and technology from the USA.
   According to a Foreign Ministry press release, the two officials evaluated
   a series of important elements of bilateral cooperation, in the wake of
   the recent signing of the Missile Defense Shield agreement and the Joint
   Statement on the Strategic Partnership between Romania and the USA.

   Aurescu underlined the need for joint action to efficiently and
   effectively use the opportunities made available by the Statement.

   The officials agreed that the excellent political-military interaction
   between Romania and the USA must carry on to the other dimensions covered
   by the document, focusing on boosting trade and stimulating American
   investor interest in the Romanian market. Aurescu recalled Romania's firm
   interest in continuing coordination and strong cooperation with the U.S.
   in energy security, including through a transfer of know-how and
   technology from the USA.

   Morrow expressed the American authorities' special appreciation for
   Romania's significant contribution to the theaters of operations in
   Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and its status as a reliable ally in NATO.

   Aurescu and Morrow exchanged views on regional topics of common interest,
   focusing on the Western Balkans and Black Sea regions. Aurescu welcomed
   the recent decision to resume formal talks towards resolving the
   Trans-Dniester conflict in the "5+2" framework and underlined the need for
   the USA's active involvement.

   Radu Bostan, radu.bostan@mediafax.ro

   Keywords:FOREIGN MINISTRY, USA, ENERGY
   Domenii / servicii:Breviarul evenimentelor, English wire
   Subiecte de cod: Economie, Afaceri si Finante
   Energie si Resurse
   Politica
   Diplomatie
   Guvern
   Ministere

   vezi legislatie
   vezi monitorizare
   Micsoreaza dimensiunea textului Mareste dimensiunea textului Printeaza
   Inchide
    
    
    
   (c) 2007copyright MEDIAFAX
    
</description>
    <date>2011-09-30 18:03:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 20:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/131141_g3-romania-us-romania-wants-to-cooperate-with-usa-in-energy.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>131339</id>
    <title>Re: Discussion - Political story of Turkish/Cyprus energy competition
</title>
    <description>     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Emre Dogru" &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Friday, September 23, 2011 8:21:22 AM
   Subject: Re: Discussion - Political story of Turkish/Cyprus energy
   competition

   Bayless Parsley wrote:

     On 9/23/11 7:33 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

       A seismic vessel of Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) left the
       Turkish port in Izmir and is currently sailing toward Cyprus.
       According to Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz, the vessel conduct
       operate oil and natural gas explorations off northern Cyprus, though
       it may operate in offshore blocs in the south that are claimed by
       Greek Cypriot government in the future. There is no information that
       the vessel is escorted by Turkish warships currently, but Turkey
       announced before that its warships and submarines are already on
       active duty in Eastern Mediterranean, without clarifying their exact
       mission.

     we need to verify this.  have they sent frigates are not. that
     determines wehther we could see this escalate into something more
     serious. where and when did turkey announce they're on 'active duty'?  i
     thought they just said they would deploy so far

       The offshore exploration and drilling dispute between Turkey and Greek
       Cyprus flared up when the American Noble Energy company started its
       operations on Sept. XXX. Noble Energy was granted exploration license
       for Block 12 of Cyprus's exclusive economic zone (a maritime boundary
       that gives a coastal state the right to conduct economic activities up
       to 200 miles) in 2007, which is not recognized by Turkey due to the de
       facto division of the Island. Turkey, as the only country that
       recognizes Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, claims that the Greek
       Cypriots do not have the right to exploit island's seabed resources
       unilaterally. Greek Cypriot government, however, is the only official
       representative of the entire island and a member of the European
       Union, even though it does not have authority over the northern part
       of the island. Despite these legal disputes, the Greek Cypriot
       government signed exclusive economic zone delimitation agreements with
       Egypt in 2003 and Lebanon in 2007.

       [INSERT MAP - need to be merged]

       Turkey has long been warning against starting offshore operations but
       its rhetoric failed to persuade the Greek Cypriot government and Noble
       Energy executives. Shortly after Noble Energy started its operations,
       Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan and Turkish Cypriot President
       Dervis Eroglu signed a bilateral continental shell agreement to
       legitimize TPAO's exploration activity during their visit to the
       United States on Sept. 21.

       Though it appears as an energy competition between Turkey and Greek
       Cyprus, there are underlying geopolitical factors that allowed the
       Greek Cypriot government to take such steps.

       The tension has already been increasing in eastern Mediterranean since
       the Turkish government announced on Sep. XXX that Turkish warships
       would escort any aid ship that sails toward the Gaza Strip to break
       the Israeli imposed blockade. Turkish move came shortly after a leaked
       newspaper report that said the UN investigation report on the Mavi
       Marmara incident (which left nine Turks death in May 2010) found the
       Israeli action legal. Even though it remains unclear whether Turkey
       would allow another aid ship to sail toward Gaza from its ports to
       make its threat credible, its move nevertheless has indicated that
       Turkey would not rule out any military option to assume its regional
       role as an emerging power.

       The growing tension between Turkey and Israel played into Greek
       Cypriot's hands. The Block 12 (the only licensed part of the exclusive
       economic zone claimed by Greek Cyprus does this mean that Greek Cyprus
       doesn't lay any claim at all to the other blocks? who does? why do
       those blocks even exist/who drew them up, if no one is claiming them?)
       these are the areas that Greek Cyprus says are inside of its exclusive
       economic zone. It may operate there in the future. It's about claiming
       sovereignty. But it only granted exploration license for the Block 12.
       3 and 13, for instance, were excluded in the 1st licensing round. is
       the closest part to Israel's recently discovered gigantic natural gas
       reserves, don't say gigantic - just say what the estimates are
       Leviathan and Tamar, where Noble Energy has been operating since 1998.
       By starting operations in Block 12, Greek Cyprus does not only hope to
       increase the geological possibility to find similar amount of energy
       reserves, but it also takes advantage of the dispute between Turkish
       and Israeli governments. Even though there is no formal exclusive
       economic zone delimitation agreement between the Greek Cyprus and
       Israel (and Israel could complicate Cyprus's plans if it wanted to),
       Cyprus has faced no resistance from Tel-Aviv to start its operations.
       Moreover, Greek Cyprus assumes that the Turkish navy would not take
       the risk of getting close to the Israeli shore to prevent operations
       in the Block 12. Why? It doesn't seem that close to Israel; there
       seems to be a lot of space for Turkish ships to maneuver it's very
       close, actually. and it's very risky given the military threats of the
       turkish gov For the Israeli government, this is a great opportunity to
       show how things could get more difficult for the Turkish government to
       handle if it does not change its policy toward Israel.  need to
       explain how exactly. i dont think the israelis want to escalate things
       with Turkey, they're largely staying out of this issue but are happy
       to see the Turks come under pressure and seeing the limits of Turkey's
       rhetoric exposed in the eastern med. i think that's all u need to say
       on the israeli angle

       Has the Izzie gov't issued any warnings to the Turks about not sending
       ships to deter Greek Cypriot drilling activity? no. they remained
       largely calm. but will double-check this part.

       The fact that Turkish - EU relationship at its nadir helps the Greek
       Cypriot government to push its ambitions as well. No chapter in
       Turkish - EU accession talks has opened since July 2010, and the
       Turkish government already announced that it will suspend all ties
       with the EU when Greek Cyprus assumes EU's rotating presidency in the
       second half of 2012. The issue has been demonstrated by Turkish
       President Abdullah Gul's visit to Germany on Sept. XXX, during which
       German Chancellor Angela Merkel outspokenly said that Germany does not
       want Turkey to become a member of the European Union. Greek Cyprus
       knows that Turkey has very few levers against the EU to convince
       Europe's powerful countries - which are already busy with the European
       sovereign debt crisis - to stop the Greek Cypriots. I would just throw
       away this entire para, or condense it, because i don't see why it
       matters. everyone has known for years that turkey wio  yeah, dont need
       to get into too much detail, but point out that Turkey does'nt need to
       be sensiitive to EU condemnation. link back to our more in depth
       pieces where we discuss how turkye primairly is using hte EU bid now
       for PR purposes but is moving past this out of geopol necessity

       It is not clear yet how long the exploration stages will take and
       whether any reserve would be found that is worth exploiting. STRAFOR's
       Turkish energy sources indicate that Turkey's official policy is to
       wait until Greek Cyprus enters the production stage to take a decisive
       action. A military confrontation is unlikely until then, though naval
       dogfights could take place in highly a restrained manner.  this sounds
       weird, and though they may attempt restraint, there is room for
       miscalculation and error that could escalate the situation. For the
       moment, however, Greek Cyprus tries to take advantage of changing
       geopolitical conditions as much as it can to gain more ground. Turkey,
       for its part, attempts to show that it is able to take steps to defend
       its interests in eastern Mediterranean and other regions if needed,
       since any Turkish weakness in this issue could encourage Greece to
       push its demands in the Aegean Sea, which would force Turkey to
       intervene without any hesitation.  how would Greece push its demands
       in the Aegean?   stay consistent with our last diary on this. Greece
       is distracted financially and so is US (and that's what informed
       turkey's thinking on this,) but Turkey also can't rule out that greece
       won't benefit and use this issue as an attempted distraction while the
       govt is facing so much political heat

       --
       --
       Emre Dogru
       STRATFOR  
       Cell: +90.532.465.7514
       Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
       emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
       www.stratfor.com

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-09-23 16:39:10</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-10 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/131339_re-discussion-political-story-of-turkish-cyprus-energy.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>133458</id>
    <title>Re: Turkey's Problems with Neighbors (Cyprus we're looking at you)
</title>
    <description>   yeah, I agree with the turkey part. my comment meant to emphasize the part
   about greek cyprus. we need to first lay out Greek Cyprus' motivation and
   then explain why and how Turkey had to show its balls and the constraints
   it faces.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Emre Dogru" &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "Mike Marchio" &lt;mike.marchio@stratfor.com&gt;, "OpCenter"
   &lt;opcenter@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, September 28, 2011 6:32:41 PM
   Subject: Re: Turkey's Problems with Neighbors (Cyprus we're looking at
   you)

   Emre, I agree with you that we need a substantial paragraph in here
   explaining what Greek Cyprus was thinking in trying to push forward with
   the exploration  while Turkey was having problems with Israel and in
   trying to further strain EU-Turkey ties. That all makes sense.

   But, it's not an either/or thing.  Turkey also saw the current situation
   as an opportunity - after flopping with Israel, turkey wanted to show it
   still has something to show for itself in the eastern Med.  Even then,
   Turkey is facing big constraints and is playing catch-up in the Cyprus
   issue. As you rgihtly point out, TPAO would also need a foreign firm with
   the expertise and willingness to absorb the political risk in working with
   Turkey to drill in these waters.  Turkey can say it doesn't have to act in
   the exploration phase, but what can Turkey seroiusly do to prevent
   production?  That's going to be extremely tough for them.

   also, there was a turkish official that talked about naval escorts for the
   energy crews. i think it was the energy minister, but that can be easily
   looked up.

   Marchio did a great job in articulating this. We just need those small
   adjustments and a section on the GReek Cyprus point of view and we are
   good to go on this.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Emre Dogru" &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Mike Marchio" &lt;mike.marchio@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, September 28, 2011 4:22:06 AM
   Subject: Re: Turkey's Problems with Neighbors (Cyprus we're looking at
   you)

   the main argument in the initial piece is reversed here. we are not saying
   that turkey is reasserting itself in the eastern Med by using the cyprus
   issue. it's the opposite:

   greek cyprus thinks its the best time to push its demands because 1)
   turkey and israel have disputes and it is risky for turkey to conduct
   naval operations in areas close to Block-12 2) Turkey and EU ties are at
   nadir and Cyprus wants to severe the ties before it assumes the presidency
   in the hopes of bringing turkish-eu ties to a point of no return.

   turkey was forced to react because otherwise it would risk being seen as
   an impotent actor that can only lash out. however, this is still a
   symbolic move b/c turkish vessel can make explorations but turkey will
   need foreign partnership if it finds feasible resources. however, it still
   shows the political willingness to defend turkish cyprus's sovereignty.
   our sources say turkey can afford greek cyprus's exploration phase, but
   its policy is to prevent production at all costs, for which there is still
   time. but the main challenge for turkey will emerge if greek cyprus
   reaches to production phase, if both sides cannot find a compromise in the
   meantime.

   Mike Marchio wrote:

     Hello my favorite cucumber and SBG,

     Here's the Cyprus piece. I'm sorry it's taken so long to get written --
     I've been pulled away a number of times since starting it to deal with
     other pieces, and the issue is not exactly a simple one so it took a bit
     of work to wrap my head around how to present it. I'm not sure if this
     is what you had in mind, but I think it tracks pretty closely with the
     discussion I had with Reva.

     The tentative plan is to run this Wednesday, so if you guys wouldn't
     mind taking a look somewhat early in the morning to give me the go-ahead
     on sending it out to the full list for comments that would be
     appreciated. Unless of course I got everything completely wrong. Then
     I'll be headed back to the drawing board. I hope that isn't the case,
     new developments in the situation have required me to rewrite the
     trigger a few times already and I really hope they don't resolve this
     problem before we get the piece out the door.

     Also, by this point I hate Cyprus so much that I am willing to enlist
     for your people's next war with them, Emre.

     At the bottom are a bunch of news articles where I found various dates
     and facts, if you're interested in verifying that stuff.

     Turkey, Cyprus: Rising Energy Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean

     Teaser: Ankara intends to make its presence felt in the eastern
     Mediterranean by taking on Cyprus over its plan to drill for oil and
     natural gas, but has found backing up its rhetoric more difficult than
     expected.

     Summary: I'll write this after you guys approve the main thrust of the
     piece.

     Analysis:

     A Turkish seismic survey vessel started natural gas exploration Sept. 27
     in an area off the southern coast of Cyprus near where the Cypriot
     government began drilling Sept. 20. Ankara's move to begin exploration
     follows a deal reached Sept. 21 between Turkey and the Turkish Republic
     of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) -- which controls the northeastern half of the
     island -- on a continental shelf delimitation agreement (I don't think
     people are gonna know what that term means? What would be a good
     euphemism? Something like "claiming part of the continental shelf for
     the TRNC"? , which gives the coastal state the right to exploit seabed
     resources. and licensing Turkish companies Turkish Petroleum Company
     TPAO to begin energy development there. Turkey has also stated it will
     send naval submarines and frigates to protect the survey vessel, though
     details on this remain unclear.

     The tensions over energy issues have been simmering for years before the
     recent escalation. Turkey has opposed drilling by the Cypriot government
     since plans were initially put forward in 2007, but did not take any
     significant action against the project until the drilling began; the
     deployment of the seismic survey vessel and supporting the TRNC's own
     energy projects is its way of catching up. However, the conflict has
     less to do with energy competition than with demonstrating Turkey's
     geopolitical influence.

   before getting here, we need to explain why turkey opposes Greek Cypriot's
   exploration by laying out disputed division of the island. that greek
   cyprus is an internationally recognized claiming to represent the entire
   island, but it does not have authority over the northern part. TRNC is
   only recognized by Turkey and Turkish troops are stationed in that part.

     Ankara is viewed as a rising power in the region, but thus far has had
     difficulty substantiating its position with anything more than rhetoric.
     After learning the limits of rhetoric in its confrontation with Israel,
     failing to secure even an apology for the deaths of nine Turks in the
     May 2010 flotilla incident, Turkey has looked elsewhere in the eastern
     Mediterranean -- to Cyprus -- for a place to demonstrate its influence.
     With the European Union currently distracted by the Greek debt crisis,
     Ankara believes it has timing on its side but it is unclear how hard it
     is willing to push in making its presence felt, and with the additional
     ships, rigs and exploration vessels being deployed, the chances for
     miscalculation are increasing. it is actually the opposite logic. Cyprus
     thinks this is the best time to push the long standing issue, because
     turkey has problems with israel and EU. Turkey was forced to react,
     basically. as written, this para sounds like Turkey staged the entire
     thing to assert itself in the Med.

     Energy in the Eastern Mediterranean

     Cyprus has been divided since Turkey militarily intervened in 1974
     following a Greek-inspired coup attempt. The island is split between a
     Greek Cypriot southwest, which is internationally recognized, and a
     Turkish Cypriot northeast represented by the TRNC, which is only
     recognized by Ankara, and while peace talks began in 2008 but little
     progress has been made. Turkey has asserted that Cyprus does not have
     the right to exploit the island's seabed resources unilaterally before
     the island's status is resolved,  a right  the Greek Cypriot government
     has claimed as the only official representative of the island at the
     United Nations and a member of the European Union.

     Despite Turkey's protests, the Greek Cypriot government went ahead with
     the development plans, granting U.S.-based Noble Energy an exploration
     license in 2007 in Block 12 (where it began drilling Sept. 20) of
     Cyprus' Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), a maritime boundary that gives a
     state the right to conduct economic activities up to 200 miles from its
     coast. Block 12 is the only area in the EEZ for which Cyprus has granted
     a license, and it abuts the Leviathan and Tamar offshore fields being
     developed by Israel since 1998, also in partnership with Noble Energy.
     http://www.stratfor.com/node/193943/.

     Israel signed an agreement with Cyprus in December 2010 recognizing the
     Cypriot government's EEZ a few months after the May flotilla incident
     severely damaged relations with Turkey, likely not a coincidence.
     (Similar deals have been signed with Egypt in 2003 and Lebanon in 2007.)
     Though Israel has largely stayed out of the current dispute between
     Turkey and Cyprus, it has been happy to see the limits of Turkey's
     rhetorical calls for an end to drilling go unheeded.

     Tensions had already been increasing in eastern Mediterranean after the
     Turkish government announced Sept. 8 that its warships would escort any
     aid ship that sails toward the Gaza Strip to break the Israeli-imposed
     blockade. This announcement was made shortly after a leaked newspaper
     report that said the U.N. investigation on the flotilla incident found
     the Israeli action legal. Even though it is yet to be seen whether
     Turkey would make good on this threat (or even allow another aid ship to
     sail toward Gaza from its ports), it nevertheless indicated that Turkey
     was not officially ruling out a military role in addressing its
     concerns.

     Now Turkey has stated it will send frigates and submarines deployed in
     the eastern Mediterranean to escort the survey vessel conducting energy
     exploration i'm not sure if Turkey stated that. there were reports
     earlier which said three frigates and one submarine were sailing in
     easter Med, but it did not say that it would escort the vessel, and
     believes that the timing of the move may make it easier to cow Cyprus
     into halting the drilling. not really. Cyprus will continue to drill

     Europe and the Timing Question

     Ankara expected that the financial turmoil currently engulfing Europe
     http://www.stratfor.com/node/202511/ -- with Cyprus' main benefactor
     Greece at its epicenter -- would make Cyprus feel more vulnerable to
     Turkish pressure and thus more likely to capitulate. In addition,
     Turkey's relations with the European Union are at their nadir, and
     Ankara is unlikely to adjust its behavior to curry the favor of a bloc
     that appears unlikely to ever let Turkey join it. Indeed, no chapter in
     Turkey-EU accession talks has opened since July 2010, and the Turkish
     government already announced it will suspend all ties with the European
     Union when Cyprus assumes the European Union's rotating presidency in
     the second half of 2012. The division was demonstrated most recently
     when German Chancellor Angela Merkel pointedly stated on the eve of
     Turkish President Abdullah Gul's Sept. 20 visit that Germany did not
     favor Turkey joining the bloc.

     Turkey has not formally dropped its EU bid, but has mainly continued it
     for public relations reasons as it increasingly turns its attention to
     the Middle East, where it has a historic leadership role.
     http://www.stratfor.com/node/196856/. The long-stagnant EU application,
     therefore, will not make Turkey particularly sensitive to the European
     Union's condemnation if Ankara decides to escalate its actions from
     rhetoric and sending surveying vessels to a more active role for the
     naval assets it claims to have deployed to Cyprus.  

     Turkey's Missing U.S. Backing

     In pursuing the Cyprus issue, Turkey had hoped to receive the backing of
     the United States. Washington needs help from Ankara on a number of
     issues, from containing Iran's influence in Iraq after the U.S.
     withdrawal to a ballistic missile defense installation aimed at
     countering Russia. Turkey hoped that, if not outright endorsing Ankara's
     position and calling for Cyprus to end its drilling, the United States
     would at least turn a blind eye to Turkey's efforts. However, this has
     turned out not to be the case, with Washington making clear in a number
     of ways that it is supporting Cyprus in the dispute.
     http://www.stratfor.com/node/202168/

     Ultimately, Turkey decided to confront Cyprus on the energy issue
     because it believed the move, if successful, could serve to prevent it
     from gaining a reputation of being unable to make good on its rhetoric
     or purported influence. If it fails to get Cyprus to stop drilling, it
     will look even more ineffectual than how it began. (Link to intel
     guidance about turkey being all hat and no cattle). Ankara has raised
     the stakes for itself in this dispute, and the question now becomes
     whether it attempts to an understanding with Cyprus on the drilling to
     de-escalate the situation, or if not, how far it is willing to take
     matters in order to prevent another embarrassment.

     http://www.indiainfoline.com/Markets/News/Turkey-signs-oil-agreement-with-Turkish-Republic-of-North-Cyprus/5251504797

     http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist-257933-a-successful-visit-to-new-york.html

     http://www.todayszaman.com/news-257919-kktc-to-start-drilling-in-eastern-mediterranean-soon.html
     http://m.cyprus-mail.com/cyprus/turkish-oil-exploration-ship-sets-out-contest-cyprus-drill-rights/20110924

     http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Turkey-Signs-Oil-Agreement-with-Turkish-Republic-of-North-Cyprus.html

     http://www.euronews.net/2011/09/27/gas-tensions-rise-between-turkey-cyprus/

     http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL5E7KL60K20110921?sp=true

     http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haberYazdir&amp;ArticleID=79242&amp;tip=

 --
 Mike Marchio
 STRATFOR
 mike.marchio@stratfor.com
 612-385-6554
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-09-28 17:42:13</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-10 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/133458_re-turkey-s-problems-with-neighbors-cyprus-we-re-looking-at.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mike.marchio@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>opcenter@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>136715</id>
    <title>B3* - Market Update - 20111006 - 12:00:01
</title>
    <description>MARKET UPDATE



STOCK MARKETS

S&amp;P 500 INDEX,RTH
As of: 12:57, 10/06/2011
Value: 1154.85
Change: +10.82
Change%: +0.95%

FTSE 100
As of: 11:35, 10/06/2011
Value: 5291.26
Change: +189.09
Change%: +3.71%

DAX
As of: 11:45, 10/06/2011
Value: 5645.25
Change: +172.22
Change%: +3.15%

NIKKEI 225
As of: 02:28, 10/06/2011
Value: 8522.02
Change: +139.039
Change%: +1.66%

HANG SENG INDEX
As of: 04:01, 10/06/2011
Value: 17172.279
Change: +922.01
Change%: +5.67%

RTSI INDEX
As of: 10:45, 10/06/2011
Value: 1271.71
Change: +54.50
Change%: +4.48%

TREASURY BONDS

CBOE Interest Rat
As of: 12:42, 10/06/2011
Yield: 1.967%
Change: +0.062
Change%: +3.25%

Treasury Yield 30
As of: 12:42, 10/06/2011
Yield: 2.936%
Change: +0.053
Change%: +1.84%

COMMODITIES

Crude Oil Nov 11
As of: 12:47, 10/06/2011
Value: 80.94
Change: +1.26
Change%: +1.58%

Brent Crude Oil L
As of: 11:56, 10/06/2011
Value: 103.20
Change: +0.59
Change%: +0.57%

Copper Oct 11
As of: 12:07, 10/06/2011
Value: 3.2365
Change: +0.1375
Change%: +4.44%

Gold Oct 11
As of: 10:50, 10/06/2011
Value: 1641.60
Change: +1.30
Change%: +0.08%

Corn Dec 11
As of: 12:47, 10/06/2011
Value: 607.50
Change: +2.00
Change%: +0.33%

Wheat Dec 11
As of: 12:48, 10/06/2011
Value: 618.75
Change: -6.50
Change%: -1.04%

Soybeans Nov 11
As of: 12:48, 10/06/2011
Value: 1168.25
Change: +4.50
Change%: +0.39%

Rough Rice Nov 11
As of: 12:41, 10/06/2011
Value: 16.005
Change: -0.01
Change%: -0.06%

CURRENCIES

EUR to USD
As of: 12:57, 10/06/2011
Value: 1.3397
Change: 
Change%: %

USD to JPY
As of: 12:55, 10/06/2011
Value: 76.675
Change: 
Change%: %

--
STRATFOR
Market Update v1.0
Kevin Stech &lt;kevin.stech@stratfor.com&gt;
</description>
    <date>2011-10-06 19:00:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 02:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/136715_b3-market-update-20111006-12-00-01-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>markets@research.stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>138785</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/RUSSIA/ENERGY - Turkey may end Russia
 natural gas deal - TR 325
</title>
    <description>   AKP wants to create its own energy giants - Russian style. Ciner and Calik
   are the examples of this, but they are not ready to assume such projects.
   The word is that Calik screwed in S-C pipeline. I don't know AKP's
   relationship with BOTAS but I don't think they have difficulty to control
   it.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, September 29, 2011 8:09:09 PM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/RUSSIA/ENERGY - Turkey may end
   Russia natural gas deal - TR 325

    i have the same question as peter.  what is AKP's relationship with
   Botas?  what private firms are they trying to give a boost to?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Michael Wilson" &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, September 29, 2011 11:59:57 AM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/RUSSIA/ENERGY - Turkey may end
   Russia natural gas deal - TR 325

   not much but sending anywyas

    Russia's Gazprom says its Turkish partner has not asked it to sever gas  
    contract                                                                 
                                                                             
    Excerpt from report by Gazprom-owned, editorially independent Russian    
    radio station Ekho Moskvy on 29 September                                
                                                                             
    [Presenter] Unexpected news came from Ankara today. Turkey is            
    threatening to refuse to buy Russian gas, if Moscow does not lower       
    prices. The contract with Gazprom for natural gas deliveries expires in  
    December. Aleksey Golubev has the details.                               
                                                                             
    [Correspondent] Ankara is demanding not just a discount, but a           
    considerable reduction of the price. Turkish Minister of Energy and      
    Natural Resources Taner Yildiz has told journalists that if an           
    acceptable answer came from Russia regarding conditions of purchases,    
    then it would be considered in Ankara. Otherwise the matter would be     
    handed over to the private sector, which would then carry out bidding,   
    Yildiz stressed. He also added that if it was not possible to extend the 
    agreements with Russia, which were signed as far back as 25 years ago,   
    then Istanbul would not have difficulties with natural gas supplies.     
                                                                             
    At the same time, these statements were perceived with a surprise in     
    Moscow, since Gazprom's Turkish partners had not yet officially asked    
    the company about a review of the gas contract, Gazprom's press          
    secretary Sergey Kupriyanov has told Ekho Moskvy [radio].                
                                                                             
    [Kupriyanov] In our work with the Botas company, we have not yet         
    received any notices to the effect that they intend not to extend the    
    existing contract or sever it.                                           
                                                                             
    [Correspondent] I shall note that the annual volume of gas bought by     
    Turkey from Russia amounts to 30bn cu.m. and in the past Ankara already  
    asked Moscow to reduce the contractual prices. [Passage omitted: further 
    background]                                                              
                                                                             
    Source: Ekho Moskvy radio, Moscow, in Russian 1400 gmt 29 Sep 11         
                                                                             
    BBC Mon FS1 FsuPol EU1 EuroPol ib                                        

              A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4300 ex 4112

   On 9/29/11 10:13 AM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

     what's the turkish govt got against their own company?

     On 9/29/11 7:47 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

       As far as I understand, Turkey does not want to end importing gas from
       Russia. The Turkish government just wants to private firms to replace
       BOTAS. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: "Lauren Goodrich" &lt;goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;
       To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
       Sent: Thursday, September 29, 2011 3:19:33 PM
       Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/RUSSIA/ENERGY - Turkey may end
       Russia natural gas deal - TR 325

       But it isn't like Turkey as an alternative right now, so it can't
       really play hardball.
       On the flipside, I keep hearing how Russia will decrease the price for
       most major players this next year. It actually realized it was toooooo
       overreaching in high price.

       On 9/29/11 7:12 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

          CODE: TR 325  
         ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Source in Turkey
         SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Turkish Energy and national security expert
         PUBLICATION: Yes
         SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
         ITEM CREDIBILITY: A
         DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
         SPECIAL HANDLING: None
         SOURCE HANDLER: Emre

         The Western Line expires this year. We knew since two years that the
         contract between Gazprom and BOTAS (that was signed in 1986) would
         be replaced by a powerful private firm or two firms when it expires.
         But of course it was quite hard to grant this contract to private
         firms due to legal and technical difficulties. (The government
         understood that this was not possible only last year). The process
         was going to be exactly the same as five years ago, which granted a
         part of gas contracts to private firms. At the time, the strategy
         was to allow companies (permitted by Gazprom beforehand) to bid in
         Turkey's auction. In other words, five companies approved by the two
         countries shared the deal. Probably this time Turkey pursues an
         alternative strategy to act more freely. By saying that "we will
         cancel the contract if the Russians do not decrease the gas price",
         Turkey actually tells the private firms to go ahead and reach a deal
         with Gazprom and then apply for license to the Turkish government to
         operate the pipeline.

         Source does not know which private firms will be given approval yet.

          

         From: Emre Dogru [mailto:emre.dogru@stratfor.com]
         Sent: Thursday, September 29, 2011 1:32 PM
         To: mfd 2030
         Subject: Fwd: G3 - TURKEY/RUSSIA/ENERGY - Turkey may end Russia
         natural gas deal

          

         Faruk abi bu isin asli astari var midir?

         Turkey may end Russia natural gas deal

         http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&amp;ArticleID=79561

          

         The contract between Turkey and Russia on natural gas transfer via
         Western Line will expire in the end of 2011.

          

         Turkish Energy &amp; Natural Resources Minister Taner Yildiz has said
         that Turkey demanded a reduction from Russia in the price of natural
         gas transferred via Western Line.

         We asked for a reduction in the price of natural gas which we import
         from Russia via Western Line, and if Russia does not respond to our
         demand, we will end the contract, added Yildiz who spoke to
         reporters after a workshop in Ankara on Thursday.

         The contract between Turkey and Russia on natural gas transfer via
         Western Line will expire in the end of 2011.

         Noting that Turkey imported an important part of its natural gas and
         oil need, Yildiz said that natural gas raw material prices increased
         39 percent in the last 29 months.

         If Russia does not make the reduction we have demanded, we will end
         the contract, said Yildiz.

         AA

          

 --

  

 Benjamin Preisler

 +216 22 73 23 19

         --
         --
         Emre Dogru
         STRATFOR  
         Cell: +90.532.465.7514
         Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
         emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
         www.stratfor.com

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19

       --

       Lauren Goodrich
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       STRATFOR
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

       --
       --
       Emre Dogru
       STRATFOR  
       Cell: +90.532.465.7514
       Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
       emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
       www.stratfor.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4300 ex 4112

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-09-29 22:17:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-19 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/138785_re-alpha-insight-turkey-russia-energy-turkey-may-end-russia.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>140775</id>
    <title>Re: [latam] For Comment - Brazil Risk Briefing
</title>
    <description>   comments in red.

   BRAZIL

    

   Does Brazil have a stable legal system and rule of law? 

   A.             Brazil has a relatively stable and gradually improving
   legal system

   A.             Courts are largely overburdened with cases and pursuing
   breaches of contract can take years, at a high cost

   A.             Throughout the Brazilian system, creatively circumventing
   the law is a cultural norm

    

   Is there a tradition of government secession and stable transition in the
   country? If so, when will the next significant elections take place? If
   not, are revolutions and coups common?

   A.             Government transitions have been stable since the end of
   the military dictatorship in the 1980s

   A.             The next national level elections will be held in 2014,
   during which the presidency and congressional seats will be up for dispute

   A.             A plebiscite at the end of 2011 will decide whether or not
   to split the northeastern state of ParA! into three separate legal
   entities.

    

   What is the political and economic relationship like between the United
   States and Brazil?

   A.             The United States and Brazil have a primarily cooperative
   relationship, punctuated with periodic disagreements

   A.             As Brazil grows in economic and political strength, it has
   begun to see itself as a power with the potential to rival the United
   States in the Western Hemisphere.

   A.             Brazilian-US relations can at times be standoffish and
   unproductive.

   A.             Brazil seeks to strategically hinder US influence in South
   America, a policy that has largely been facilitated by US focus on other
   regions of the world over the past two decades.

   A.             The United States is the main source of foreign investment,
   and a major trading partner. 

    

   Who are Brazila**s primary trading partners?

   A.             Brazila**s primary trading partner is China, to which
   Brazil exports primarily raw commodities.

   A.             The United States and Argentina are Brazila**s next most
   important trade partners. Both import manufactured goods from Brazil,
   which helps to compensate for the impact of Chinaa**s recent flood of
   interest in raw commodities.

    

   Is there material regional differences found in the country, such as
   tribal and religious influences?

   A.             Most investment and population centers are located along
   the coastal regions.

   A.             The area around Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro are
   particularly well developed and becoming more so as local oil deposits
   become developed. Many areas in the State of Minas Gerais is pretty
   industrialized and are not along the coast, just like Serra Gaucha in the
   state of Rio Grande do Sul, which is the second largest metal mechanic
   industrial area in Brazil.  

   A.             Outside of the main population centers, Brazil is
   characterized by a slowly developing agricultural sector in the south and
   southwest (agriculture in the south has been developing from a long time,
   Brazil is one of the main grain producers in the world, it is not a slowly
   developing agricultural sector) , the Amazon rainforest in the northwest
   and poor, less developed regions in the northeast. Keep in mind that in
   Manaus, in Amazon, there is zona franca de Manaus where there are 600 main
   multinational and national high tech companies producing electronic
   products)

   A.             Overall, there is a high level of regional competition in
   Brazil. States compete heavily with one another for funding from federal
   sources, and individual Brazilians tend to feel a strong affinity for
   their home state a** something that can influence federal policy depending
   on the individuals in power.

    

   What is the general business structure found in each country and are there
   families or other types of entities that control large components of
   business?

    

   A.             Brazil boasts a large number of corporations that dominate
   the business landscape, as well as many medium and small companies in the
   minority.

   A.             Brazila**s biggest companies enjoy a great deal of
   government support both on the domestic scene and in international
   markets. 

   A.             A number of families and individuals feature prominently on
   the Brazilian business system, including: Rede Globo is bigger than
   Bandeirantes and SBT together and is commanded by MarinhoA's family. Rede
   Globo is the 3rd largest tv commercial tv in the world only loosing to CBS
   and NBC. I would also include here the Setubal and Moreira Sakes  and
    families that own the Itau-Unibanco which is the second largest Latin
   American Bank.

   o      Bandeirantes Communications Group, a media conglomerate that
   controls many Television channels and Radio Stations.  a** Controlled
   mostly by the Saad family.

   o      Odebretch S. A a** Conglomerate expanded into many fields,
   primarily construction-related. Controlled by the Odebretch family.

   o      Gerdau a** 17th largest Steel Producer in the world, founded by the
   Gerdau family

   o      SBT a** Sistema Brasileiro de TelevisA-L-o, founded and operated by
   Silvio Santos.

   o      The EBX conglomerate a** Operator of various spin-off companies
   like OGX (oil and gas) and MMX (mining), it Is owned by Brazilian
   billionair, Eike Batista.

   o      RBS a** Media conglomerate prevalent in Brazila**s south that is
   owned by the Sikortsky family

   o      Klabin a** A paper products and paper recycler owned by the Klabin
   family.

   Is corruption common? Is it possible to conduct business in the country
   without violating the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act or other
   regulations? How does a**corruptiona** manifest itself in business?

   A.             Corruption is very prevalent in Brazil

   A.             Bribery, influence peddling and nepotism are common and
   Brazilians often consider it a point of pride to creatively circumvent the
   law

   A.             It should not, however, be considered quite as corrupt or
   as damaging an environment as Mexico.

   A.             Nevertheless, business done in Brazil should be done with
   extreme caution so as to not violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.

   In regards to the regulatory environment, are the same regulations in
   place and enforced for foreign businesses as they are for domestic
   enterprises? 

   A.             Taxes at the federal level are legally identical for both
   foreign and domestic companies. At a state level there have been
   complaints that value-added taxes have been applied unevenly depending on
   the nationality of the company.

   A.             Though the government largely divested itself of
   state-owned companies, it remains heavily involved in Brazila**s economy.
   Powerful Brazilian companies such as electricity firm Eletrobras and
   hydrocarbons firm Petrobras remain government controlled despite being
   largely privatized.

   A.             Businesses should be prepared for heavy government
   championing of domestic firms as a general rule.

   A.             Public procurement is heavily biased towards products of
   Brazilian companies.

   A.             Many sectors are subject to foreign ownership limitations,
   including media, communications, aviation, transportation, and mining

    

   Are environmental regulations in place and are such regulations properly
   enforced?

   A.             Brazil has implemented a number of environmental norms and
   regulations. Enforcement is not always possible.

   A.             Enforcement in urban areas where there is a government
   presence is much more likely and common than in more rural areas.

   A.             Every business considering investing in Brazil should be
   aware that environmental issues can quickly become political. Because of
   national cultural attitudes about the environmental status of the Amazon
   rainforest, issues of environmental degradation can take on a national
   character.

   A.             Should an environmental issue become politicized, protests
   can be expected.

    

   Is there a tradition of capitalism and respect for private property or are
   nationalizations and seizures of natural resources or foreign companies
   operating in any sector common?

   A.             Nationalizations are not generally a problem in Brazil

   How difficult is it for a U.S. company to get money in and out of each
   country after investing in a country's bank or mining operations? For
   example, are there repatriation limits of moving earnings? Are there
   onerous taxes and regulations on earnings?

   A.             Brazil is currently experiencing extreme upward pressure on
   the value of the Brazilian currency, the Real. Caused by inflows of
   foreign direct and portfolio investment, the inflows have harmed Brazilian
   exports and encouraged higher consumer spending. As a result, the
   government has imposed limited capital restrictions including:

   o      Inflows for fixed income investments  -- 6%

   o      Inflows for portfolio investments -- 2%

   o      Capital Gains Remmitances -- 15%

   o      Profits on FDI Remitances -- 0.38%

   o      Remmittances related to technology transfers -- 25%

   Is STRATFOR aware of any possible changes to taxation, removing money from
   the country, or any other types of capital constraints in general? There
   is a new tax for health care tax that the govt wants to created by the end
   of this year or next year. A rough draft is being analyzed by Congress and
   the minister of institutional relations, Ideli Salvati said that she hopes
   this tax can be created soon. The govt thought to create a tax for
   financial transactions, but Congress rejected and is thinking about a
   different one. 

   A.             While we are not aware of anything in specific planned by
   Brazil, it should be noted that Brazil has structural constraints that
   make inflation a perennial problem for the country. Without sufficient
   infrastructure, costs tend to rise quickly, with the impact felt
   immediately by Brazila**s poor.

   A.             The combination of factors means that Brazil will
   consistently seek to limit growth in order to mitigate inflationary
   tendencies.

   What are the major security threats for foreign business travelers and
   country-based nationals working in each country, to include threats posed
   by terrorism, crime, political stability and war and insurgency?

   A.             The major threat in Brazil is by criminal organizations and
   petty crime

   A.             Cargo theft, smuggling and drug trafficking are exceedingly
   prevalent in Brazil and should be taken into account in any investment.

   A.             Any personnel traveling in Brazil should exercise standard
   levels of situational awareness for traveling in Latin America, as armed
   robbery, kidnapping and other crimes are prevalent.

   Is there a presence of revolutionary or secessionist groups? If so, how
   much of a risk do they pose to the government and foreign businesses and
   their employees operating in the country?

   A.             There are no major revolutionary or secessionist groups in
   Brazil.

    

   In regards to the abovementioned questions, are any major shifts in the
   present conditions expected within the next ten years?

   A.             The world Cup in 2014 and the summer Olympics of 2016 will
   be held in Rio de Janeiro as well as other cities around the country. In
   the lead up to these events, the government will seek to crack down on
   local criminal organizations, generating short term destabilization in
   these areas. There will be an increase in economic development efforts
   during that time.

   A.             The factors leading to brazila**s current boom are largely
   dependent on favorable international conditions and the boom generated by
   the stabilization in the early 1990s of the countrya**s economy. The
   current rate of growth and development should be considered with caution
   in the absence of major overhauls to the Brazilian economic and
   infrastructure systems. Without significant improvement of the base level
   education in Brazil, the cost of skilled labor should be expected to rise
   significantly over the long haul. Limited infrastructure will mean high
   competition for inherently restricted resources, causing bottlenecks in
   growth.

    

    

   --
   Karen Hooper
   Latin America Analyst
   o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
   c: 512.750.7234
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-11 13:38:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-02 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/140775_re-latam-for-comment-brazil-risk-briefing-.html</permalink>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>147544</id>
    <title>[OS] CHINA/CT/MIL - Chinese army develops drug to keep soldiers
 awake for up to 72 hours - paper
</title>
    <description>    Chinese army develops drug to keep soldiers awake for up to 72 hours -   
    paper                                                                    
                                                                             
    Text of report headlined "PLA eyes 'night eagle' to make army of night   
    owls" published by Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post website  
    on 16 October                                                            
                                                                             
    The People's Liberation Army (PLA) [Chinese army] has opened up a new    
    front in the war against sleep.                                          
                                                                             
    It has developed a drug that can keep its soldiers awake and active for  
    as long as 72 hours, state television reported yesterday. But its        
    scientists didn't disclose its ingredients.                              
                                                                             
    The anti-sleep drug - called Night Eagle - was unveiled as one of 600    
    scientific achievements in an exhibition marking the 60th anniversary of 
    the Academy of Military Medical Sciences. The China Central Television   
    report did not give further details about the new drug, such as any hint 
    of its composition, how it works or its possible side effects.           
                                                                             
    Instead, quoting academy researcher Wang Lin, it said the drug was       
    developed specifically for the military to help soldiers cope with sleep 
    deprivation during missions.                                             
                                                                             
    "Our troops will have to stay awake for a long time while being able to  
    maintain cognitive abilities when they are deployed in search and rescue 
    operations after earthquakes, floods and other disasters and some        
    special military missions," Wang said.                                   
                                                                             
    Analysts said the Night Eagle drug appeared similar to                   
    sleep-suppressants widely used by armed forces of other countries.       
                                                                             
    "Although I have no information about the newly invented drug, it is not 
    at all surprising to see efforts to control sleep and develop anti-sleep 
    technology because of their apparent practical uses in combat            
    situations," said Professor Ni Lexiong, a Shanghai-based military        
    expert.                                                                  
                                                                             
    "Whether our troops can deprive themselves of sleep hours or even days   
    longer than their opponents could make a major difference in combat," Ni 
    said.                                                                    
                                                                             
    Ni believed the PLA would not reveal the drug's composition or           
    associated experimental data, but said it probably worked the same way   
    as other stimulants developed in the West. Any possible side effects of  
    the drug were also unknown.                                              
                                                                             
    One popular military stimulant in the West is modafinil, which was       
    originally developed to treat narcolepsy but is now used by US, French,  
    British and Indian armed forces as an alternative to amphetamines, as    
    well as by students to fight fatigue.                                    
                                                                             
    Modafinil has been a popular lifestyle drug for people who want to       
    chemically turn off sleep with fewer side effects.                       
                                                                             
    Experts also said anti-sleep drugs were becoming more important hi-tech  
    aids and the US military reportedly developed a formulation that kept    
    soldiers awake for seven straight days and nights in the early 2000s.    
                                                                             
    Source: South China Morning Post website, Hong Kong, in English 16 Oct   
    11                                                                       
                                                                             
    BBC Mon AS1 ASDel ma                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4300 ex 4112
</description>
    <date>2011-10-17 15:15:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/147544_-os-china-ct-mil-chinese-army-develops-drug-to-keep-soldiers.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>os@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:os@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>151286</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT- GEORGIA - Atlantic Council Task Force - GE111
</title>
    <description>   [LG: this is a week old, but I am still catching up on email]

   SOURCE: sub-source via GE111
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source in Tbilisi
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Georgian Lobby head, but points are passed along from
   Embassy
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: C
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

   Today, the Atlantic Council Task Force on Georgia, co-chaired by Senators
   Jeanne Shaheen and Lindsey Graham, released a major new report on Georgia,
   arguing for intensified domestic reform and a new sense of common purpose
   and clarity from the United States and Europe to work toward a democratic
   Georgia embedded in the institutions of the West.

    

   Georgia faces critical tests at home-parliamentary elections in 2012 and a
   presidential contest in 2013-and mounting external pressure as Russia
   occupies Abkhazia and South Ossetia and seeks to destabilize Georgia.
   Against this background, Georgia must demonstrate its commitment to
   further its democracy, and the United States and Europe must redouble
   their efforts to support Georgia, including at the May 2012 Chicago NATO
   summit. The task force report, Georgia in the West: A Policy Road Map to
   Georgia's Euro-Atlantic Future, lays out a series of recommendations to
   support those ends.

    

   "We should embrace the vision of a united, democratic Georgia embedded in
   the institutions of a Europe that is whole, free, and at peace," stated
   Senator Lindsey Graham, co-chair of the task force. "As Georgia deepens
   its reforms to consolidate free-market democracy, the West must provide a
   credible road map to Euro-Atlantic integration."

    

   "Georgia's future will depend, first and foremost, on its determination to
   proceed with domestic reforms that build a strong and vibrant market
   economy and a pluralist democracy. By unequivocally embracing the vision
   of a Georgia that is integrated into the Euro-Atlantic community, the
   United States and Europe can be demanding when it comes to Georgia's
   domestic performance, holding Georgia to the high expectations it sets for
   itself," stated Senator Jeanne Shaheen, co-chair of the task force.

    

   The report makes recommendations for policymakers in Washington and key
   European capitals to strengthen Georgia's ongoing integration into NATO
   and the European Union (EU), by offering a clear vision and concrete
   intermediate benefits to reward Georgia's progress. It offers
   recommendations for the Georgian government and all sectors of Georgian
   society to undertake important internal reforms that advance Georgian
   democracy and in turn secure Georgia's place in the West. It also lays out
   strategies to counter Russia's creeping annexation of the occupied
   territories and to solidify an international commitment to Georgia's
   territorial integrity over the long-term.

    

   The report advocates that the United States, Europe, and Georgia take the
   following measures:

   .         Maintain democracy support at the core of US and European
   assistance: US and European assistance to Georgia should target electoral
   reform, support for civil society and free media, political party
   development, and parliamentary strengthening.

   .         Hold Russia accountable for its occupation and protect Georgia's
   territorial integrity: The United States should institutionalize declared
   policy denying Abkhazia and South Ossetia recognition as independent
   states. US and European officials should hold Russia to account for its
   legal obligations, while pushing for the internationalization of ethnic
   Georgian-populated areas in Abkhazia and South Ossetia and propose a
   neutral international security presence in the occupied territories. The
   EU should push Russia to allow the EU Monitoring Mission (EUMM) to fulfill
   its mandate across the occupation line and invite US participation in the
   EUMM.

   .         Advance Georgia's NATO aspirations: Transatlantic allies should
   agree that the NATO-Georgia Commission is Georgia's path to membership and
   adopt a package of intensified cooperation at a first-ever NATO-Georgia
   summit in Chicago next May. NATO allies should respond to Georgia's
   nonuse-of-force pledge by helping Georgia develop defense plans and
   purchase defensive arms.

   .         Support Georgia at the World Trade Organization (WTO): US and
   European officials should facilitate an agreement, which could include
   international customs monitors on Russia's border with Abkhazia and South
   Ossetia, to allow Georgian support for Russia's WTO membership.

   .         Deliver on the Eastern Partnership (EaP): The EU should
   reinforce its stated EaP policy of "more for more," by proposing to
   Georgia a road map for visa-free travel, and opening negotiations with
   Georgia on a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement this year.

   .         Strengthen democratic measures: The Georgian government and
   civil society should work together to undertake measures to empower the
   parliament, strengthen judicial independence, and ensure that the
   electoral reform process apportions electoral districts on the basis of
   one person, one vote. The government should deter interference in
   opposition financing and introduce direct mayoral elections nationwide.

   .         Facilitate investments and job creation: Georgia's government
   should avail itself of international assistance, including the next
   Millennium Challenge Corporation compact, to strengthen its human
   resources and tackle unemployment and underemployment. It should make
   investments that reinforce its role as an energy-transit country,
   strengthen its investment climate by resolving tax disputes quickly, and
   facilitate commerce and people-to-people ties across the lines of
   occupation.

    

   In the 1990s, most were skeptical that the Baltic countries would one day
   be members of NATO and the EU. Yet their performance, and clear US
   leadership, transformed the idea of their membership from a radical notion
   to a natural outcome. Clarity in Western policy provided the incentives
   for painful reforms, while neutralizing Russian objections. Today we can
   draw from these lessons.

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-10-19 19:34:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/151286_-alpha-insight-georgia-atlantic-council-task-force-ge111-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/13/13495_Georgia in the West.pdf</path><size>867176</size><md5></md5><sha1>f83e4f20c9a4dfec2fc88cc40b5fcc237e94f500</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>152737</id>
    <title>Re: G3* - LEBANON/CYPRUS - FM to go to Cyprus for talks on maritime
	border, says Qabbani
</title>
    <description>   this is quite interesting. leb already has a maritime border with cyprus
   (i think it was signed in 2007) but the leb parliament did not ratify it.
   lebanon also wants to ramp up its exploration activities in eastern med,
   as it has its own EEZ problems with Israel. I very much doubt that Cyprus
   will do anything in favor of Leb at this time around, because Cyprus
   highly depends on Israeli support against Turkey's assertiveness.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Michael Wilson" &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "alerts" &lt;alerts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, October 17, 2011 7:58:06 PM
   Subject: G3* - LEBANON/CYPRUS - FM to go to Cyprus for talks on
   maritime        border, says Qabbani

   FM to go to Cyprus for talks on maritime border, says Qabbani
   October 17, 2011   share
      
   http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=322952

   Parliamentary Energy and Water Committee chief Mohammad Qabbani said on
   Monday that Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour will head to Cyprus to continue
   talks about amending the maritime treaty between the two countries.

   a**Mansour will head to Cyprus to amend the treaty made with Cyprus
   concerning Lebanona**s economic zone and to prepare for the treaty [to
   demarcate the border] with Cyprus,a** the National News agency quoted
   Qabbani as saying.

   a**[Simultaneously] discussions will be held with Syria to demarcate the
   maritime borders between [Lebanon and Syria],a** he added.

   Qabbani also said that preparations will start in the first half of 2012
   to give licenses for companies seeking to drill for petroleum resources
   along Lebanona**s maritime coast.

   In July, Israel's cabinet approved a map of the Jewish State's proposed
   maritime borders with Lebanon, which is to be submitted to the UN.

   Following Israela**s approval of the map, Energy Minister Gebran Bassil
   countered that Lebanon will not give up its maritime rights.

   Lebanon and Israel differ on their interpretation of their maritime
   borders, which has become a contentious issue following the discovery of
   potential offshore petroleum resources.

   To read more:
   http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=322952#ixzz1b3gKKkB2
   Only 25% of a given NOW Lebanon article can be republished. For
   information on republishing rights from NOW Lebanon:
   http://www.nowlebanon.com/Sub.aspx?ID=125478

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4300 ex 4112

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-18 08:28:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-10 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/152737_re-g3-lebanon-cyprus-fm-to-go-to-cyprus-for-talks-on.html</permalink>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>155109</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - TURKEY - Dom &amp; Fp Issues - TR5
</title>
    <description>   pretty decent comments on domestic issues, except for Dogan's position.
   The source tries to play down Dogan's opposition against AKP. AKP doesn't
   forget how Dogan media group allied with the military before Gul's
   election as the president.
   Also, comments in the first paragraph (about who will get the U.S. as the
   patron) is typical Turkish.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Antonia Colibasanu" &lt;colibasanu@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, April 28, 2010 5:32:54 PM
   Subject: INSIGHT - TURKEY - Dom &amp; Fp Issues - TR5

   SOURCE CODE: TR5
   PUBLICATION: Not Applicable
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Left-leaning secularist senior journalist with
   Hurriyet  

   ATTRIBUTION: Not Applicable
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Not Applicable
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SOURCE HANDLER: Kamran

    

   The following are responses to the questions in bold.

    

   1) What is happening between the AKP and TSK in the light of the Ergenekon
   and Sledgehammer probes. While the political position of the general staff
   weakening, I doubt that they will go quietly into the night. At some point
   they need to say a**this far and no furthera**. How do you see this
   playing out moving forward in terms of the militarya**s response and how
   far do you think the AKP will push (surely they want to avoid
   miscalculating and hence over-stepping)?

    

   We have to think this issue in the global context. In a nutshell, the
   decades-old power struggle between TSK and governments has always been
   about which side gets support from Washington. Throughout the cold war and
   even until the end of 1990s, the military had the upper hand. Now, the
   situation is changing as US is convinced it has found a strong ally in
   AKP, after long tedious years of weak coalition governments. Some a**
   unconfirmed a** talk between alleged coup plotters reveals the frustration
   of the military, while columns written by pro-military columnists in the
   past few years also reveal an effort to a**win back the hearts and
   mindsa** of US.  Ilhan Selcuk of Cumhuriyet comes to mind. Unless a
   a**change of hearta** in Washington does not take place, the government
   has the upper hand. Having said that, they are treading carefully, despite
   all noise going on about the military getting weaker through arrests etc.
   Over-stepping is really a danger for the government here, but if the
   military decides to a**cross the linea** and go harsher against AKP, it
   will have to do it a**despite the US.a** As a NATO-member, I doubt they
   have the courage to do this. As I said, the issue has to be taken in the
   global context. For example, if neocons were still in power in US, I doubt
   they would let the government trample upon the military like this; they
   have an understanding that a**governments come and go, but TSK is always
   there.a**

    

   2) What do you make of the clamor over the increasingly influence of the
   Gulenites in civil society and even the stat, e.g. security, educational,
   media sectors. What is the nature of their relationship to the AKP? To
   what extent does the AKP view the FG movement as an asset and a liability?

    

   This is complicated. The a**Islamic rootsa** of AKP are far away from the
   roots of Gulen movement in terms of Islamic schools. You wont see any
   comment from the PM that praises Gulen, for example. But the two seem to
   have found a common ground in that the AKP lets Gulenists roam free and
   increase its influence, while the latter accepts to be a propaganda
   machine for the government through media etc. As in all alliances, this
   alliance inherently involves a rivalry. I believe Gulen knows his place
   well and will not cross the lines here. But after he dies, that is another
   question. The Kemalist view of a a**AKP-FG coalition governmenta** seems
   too much stretching the reality to me. Still, Erdogan may be witnessing
   the creation of a monster here. The picture may become clearer with the
   death of Gulen and the position of an heir, I would say.

    

   3) What is the status of the AKPa**s efforts to control the old secularist
   business elite and thus promote a new conservative one? You guys are well
   aware of how it is playing out in the media sector with the feud with
   Dogan. But how is the struggle playing out in other sectors. Obviously
   this is not a black and white issue as the AKP wants to maintain support
   among the established business groups. How does this all work out?

    

   AKP is an a**expansionista** movement, which runs contrary to the
   traditional Islamic movements in Turkey. Old movements, especially the
   Erbakan movement that Erdogan and co. were born out of, were
   a**introvert,a** meaning they just wanted to protect their lifestyles,
   practices etc. and were in essence a**on the defensive.a** AKP is not.
   They are on the offensive, imposing their way on others, which is far more
   dangerous for those who understand this. AKP knows that it has to have the
   backing of big business to stay in power, while big business knows it
   needs a a**stablea** government, similar to the case with the US here. If
   you look at the governmenta**s attitude on labor regulations, trade union
   policies, workplae relations etc. you will see this as a a**purely
   capitalista** government, even one reminiscent of the 18th century UK.
   Thus, they have full backing from big business. When people like Dogan a**
   willingly or unwillingly, as no media boss could be able to control his
   outlets on a regular basis a** challenge this through media criticism,
   that means they have overstepped the line and have to be a**corrected.a**
   On the other hand, the AKP also wants to have a**its owna** business elite
   rising up, and they have taken important steps in this. But the a**rise of
   the green capitala** or a**rise of the Anatolian tigersa** should not be
   misleading, as Ia**d say the total wealth of all these a**greena**
   holdings would barely reach the wealth of, say, SabancA 1/2 Holding. The
   picture has been changing only in media, as pro-government newspapers and
   TVs have much more clout now. Still, the Dogan group reigns supreme.

    

   4) On the foreign policy front, STRATFORa**s view is that Iraq is the main
   focus for Ankaraa**s efforts to expand geopolitically, especially since it
   needs to counter the rise of Iran in its southeastern neighbor. How do you
   see Turkey approaching this objective, especially with its problems over
   the Kurdish issue and Tehran having far more influence because of
   demographics? What is Ankara trying to achieve in terms of the new
   coalition government. What is its relationship with former interim prime
   minister Iyad Allawia**s al-Iraqiyah list, which came out in first place.
   How much progress has been made in terms of seeking influence among the
   Kurds and more importantly, the Shia. Since a key aspect of Turkish
   foreign policy vis-A -vis Iraq is to secure an alternative source of
   energy, reducing dependency on Azerbaijan and Russia. Where do Ankaraa**s
   stand there?

    

   As I write this, news came that Turkey has officially invited Barzani, the
   KRG chief, to Ankara. This is a huge step for a state that still acts with
   reflexes over a**breakupa** fears. Thus, the relationship with Iraqa**s
   Kurds are bound to get better, followed by really strong trade and
   commerce relations; in no time, Kurdistan has become the most important
   source of income for Turkeya**s south-southeast cities. Iraq is fast
   rising up as one of the top5 trade partners, and this is really because of
   Kurdistan. Ia**d say the a**Kurdish openinga** of the government is linked
   to these developments closely, as a Turkey that has not solved its Kurdish
   problem cannot maintain the desired relation with Iraqi Kurdistan. But the
   problem is that the Turkish public hasna**t got much idea of how strong
   and rooted the PKK is, while the government insists that a**PKK and Kurds
   are separate problems.a** So, my opinion is that the a**Kurdish openinga**
   will collapse noisily, as it fails to address even the most basic demands
   of Kurds and fails to recognize even the BDP as a party to the issue.
   Turkeya**s relations with Iraqi Shia are, Ia**d say, sour, as the
   government explicitly has tried to cultivate relations with the Sunni due
   to its Sunni roots. This is where the a**pragmatic facea** of AKP went off
   stage and the ideology face came up. Unless Turkey can have a balanced and
   equal-to-equal relation with all factions in Iraq, its
   a**micro-imperiala** aspirations are doomed. We have seen such initiatives
   collapse many times, for exmple the a**Turkic openinga** in the aftermath
   of the fall of the USSR.

    

   6) What are Ankaraa**s goals with regards to its relationship with Israel?
   Clearly, Turkey wants to have a relationship with Israel but how far is
   Ankara willing to allow relations to sour? IF you could elaborate on the
   various angles to this issue (Syria, Iran, and the Palestinians).

    

   This is also a global issue, related to 1. Obamaa**s seeing the solving of
   Mideast question as a lever to his overall regional policies and 2. A
   diminishing power of the US in the Mideast due to the destructive Bush
   policies. As the AKP has observed the needs of the US administration in
   the Mideast, it has a**learneda** to change positions. Learning is a very
   important aspect of this government, mind you. It can change positions
   suddenly as it recognizes a global shift, and it does this well. The
   position change allows to further convince the US to rein in Israel, while
   also propping up Turkey as a a**regional power.a** Thus, crudely put, the
   AKP is able to turn to Washington and say: a**Here is my clout, at your
   service. But this clout is only sustainable if we solve this
   problem.a**Again, if the clumsy military had its old power, Turkey could
   never take such a stand, as the a**alliancea** between Israel and Turkey,
   brokered by the US, is essentially a military one. The Palestinian
   relation is different and I, as a supporter of the Palestinian cause, see
   what is coming as very destructive to the rights of Palestinians. The
   US-Israeli policies, with a**helpa** from Hamas, have managed to split
   Palestine in two. The conflict is increasingly being perceived as one of
   religion, not one of nation, a trend in accordance with the global shift
   in perceptions. The AKP, due to its Islamist roots, has no objection to
   this. So, the a**Palestine relationsa** are in essence relations with
   Gaza. The Islamic NGOs out here are also working on a**the plight of
   Gazaa** as opposed to the plight of Palestinians. This I could write a
   book on. But suffice it to say that while pushing for a solution to the
   Palestinian problem, the AKP is helping to shift the perceptions about
   that very same problem for the worse, acting like an a**outsider Hamas.a**
   This is a a**nation problema** and trying to cover it with an Islamic veil
   will not change its nature, only postpone a solution.

    

   7. What kind of role is Turkey playing in the U.S.-Iranian conflict? How
   successful has Ankara been in mediating between DC and Tehran? How does
   Turkey seek to balance its ties with the United States and Iran?

    

   The problem with this government is that they are trying to be mediators
   in everything, or posing as mediators, but are not being accepted as such
   by parties of any conflict. Turkey could have convinced the US that it
   could have some sort of role in solving the issue. But I really doubt it
   has convinced Iran on being a mediator. It has not convinced Syria or
   Israel in other problems, to remind you. a**Playing the mediatora**
   without clout could be a dangerous game around here. Ia**d say that the
   policy on Iran has been the most disastrous policy of this government, as
   it does not contribute to a solution and may even be worsening the
   situation.

    

    

    

    

    

    

   -------

   Kamran Bokhari

   STRATFOR

   Regional Director

   Middle East &amp; South Asia

   T: 512-279-9455

   C: 202-251-6636

   F: 905-785-7985

   bokhari@stratfor.com 

   www.stratfor.com

   Stratfor 

    

    
</description>
    <date>2010-04-28 16:58:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-20 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/155109_re-insight-turkey-dom-and-fp-issues-tr5-.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>156443</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   Brown

   On 10/24/11 11:50 AM, Morgan Kauffman wrote:

     If you're going to cover the vigilante/robin-hood aspect, I found this
     in today's sweeps: 
     http://arstechnica.com/business/news/2011/10/anonymous-takes-down-darknet-child-porn-site-on-tor-network.ars?utm_source=rss&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=rss
     and 
     http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2395175,00.asp#fbid=KvMufY_Mq3a

     They've got a sub-group that tries to hunt down child-abuse sites and
     users - last week they published a list of 1500 names of visitors to one
     site, in addition to performing a couple of DDoS attacks to the server.

     On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

       Link: themeData

       I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to have a
       broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no nothing, or
       almost nothing about what this group is and the threat it poses.
       Reviewing their list of attacks
       (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most of the
       cases, they are the "good" guys, sort of a Robin Hood of the internet
       . The interesting thing when it comes to their interactions with the
       cartels is the dubious role they play: at the same time they can be
       fighting crime by revealing cartel members/supporters, but they can
       also put lives in risk.

       However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by Anonymous.
       The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can conduct a cyber
       attack under "Anonymous" is worrisome.
       (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

       If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government websites,
       or if I am just a internet user, I would like to know more about these
       guys. Who they are? What are they interested in? How they operate? Who
       they have targeted so far? How can I defend myself from them? In what
       countries are they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use
       them to achieve any particular goal?

       On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

         nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else can
         build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they pose to
         innocent people caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing
         on journalists or taxi drivers they show little understanding of the
         situation.  This has long term implications in not just Mexico. 
         They don't consider the consequences of their actions and they act
         without understanding the environment.  It was the same when they
         released information on the Sony Playstation network to protest
         Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

         On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

           Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
           possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
           Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by Anonymous,
           threatens revealing personal information on cartels as well as
           states a member had been kidnapped. I could not find any sources
           outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being kidnapped.
           According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous
           Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting flyers in
           Veracruz as part of the Operation Paperstorm protest, although
           that is speculation.

           Link: themeData
           Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
           denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed
           out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
           Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked
           individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the
           most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
           the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing
           identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists
           who collude with criminal cartels. No mention of banks that accept
           their laundered money? That is when they would be a threat to
           their bottom line. They can always buy cabbies, cops, politicos
           and journos but tracing banks.  The hacker group demanded Los
           Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
           consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
           was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
           their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
           potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and
           hackers, presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels
           lashing out at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting
           on cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

           What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
           threat to Mexican cartels.
                o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
           media
                o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash
           out at cartels

           While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
           threat
                o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
           identifiable information on cartel members
                o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire
           on cartels
                o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
           communications, identifiable information on cartels members have
           to be considered in the realm of possibilities for
                       Anonymous
                       o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
           illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

           Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
           ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result,
           their understanding of cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous
           may act with confidence when sitting in front of a computer, but
           this may blind them to any possible retribution. They may not even
           know the impact of any online assault of cartels.
                o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
           will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
           individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
           drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
           halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not
           have a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
           Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &amp;
           Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
           consequences from this.
                o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
           are willing to go protect their operations.
                   o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                   o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
           community before, coercing computer science majors into working
           for them.
                   o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
           discovering hackers within Mexico.

            

           On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

             Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
             there are several issues to address and fix here.

             These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
             discussion:

                  o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine
             but we can't gloss over that fact
                  o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference
             between stealing bank records from government computers and
             overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                  o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
             information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
             kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
             talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
             politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
             going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
             killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
             operational details, because they acted as informants, because
             they exposed links with officials or because they somehow
             sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
             information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                  o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
             realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a
             measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity
             except for the technical ability by a very small number of its
             members to infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
             information. Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on
             a network that is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)?
             Where else could information be found? Government databases?
             Once we know what kind of information is accessible, we can also
             know more about the consequences of dissemination.
                  o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to
             trace back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of
             killings done by people who may not understand the difference
             between an anon hacker and a blogger.

             On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

               wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

               -------- Original Message --------

                Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                   Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                   From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
               Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                     To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

               you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need
               a lot more work

               You need to lay out:

               a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger
               section is unclear
               b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
               therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
               c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
               anything
               d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill
               anyone who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

               I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
               insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
               levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
               the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
               is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
               business online, in a protected fashion.

               Karen Hooper
               Latin America Analyst
               o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
               c: 512.750.7234
               STRATFOR
               www.stratfor.com
               On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

               On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

               Link: themeData

               Trigger

               Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
               Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?,
               lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
               denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
               released depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a
               screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent video release,
               Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels.
               Threats such as releasing identities of Mexican? American?
               taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who collude
               with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
               release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences.
               The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels
               and hackers, presents an unprecedented war front for the
               cartels. The vastly different operations of Anonymous and Los
               Zetas leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have
               little experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no
               experience with the cartels. I do not believe for a second
               that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                

               In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
               mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
               their demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be
               mentioned right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is
               threatening to hit back. Provide enough details so we
               understand who this guy is and why/how he was abducted. are
               not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing revealing
               information on cartel members and operations are true, cartels
               will likely respond with violence against individuals revealed
               as opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous members?.
               It also is likely that public disclosure of GOM officials who
               collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving
               the Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this
               means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
               effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against
               Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue
               their threats against any individual using online media WC....
               you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers
               here. against the cartels.

                

               The Battle Space

               Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
               realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
               of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
               geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
               exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
               are physical people tho live in the real world. They have
               names and addresses - although most of them are likely outside
               of MX.)  Anonymous' power base consists of their technical
               capabilities in hacking. Any information connected to the
               Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying
               the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's
               population could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of
               what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
               Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in
               revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't run
               operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money via
               e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on the web than
               the jihadists.)

               Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
               base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
               believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
               through the internet. This gives an opening for people
               disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
               dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience =
               troll. Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
               themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of serious IT
               capability. 

               The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has
               been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

               The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US
               and Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking
               to maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
               commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
               and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from
               insight. There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't
               have a similar capacity.  Their power base is built by large
               amounts of revenue and escalating brutal violence. Cartels
               like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing different types of
               threats. Cartels are always suffering at the hands of cartel
               on cartel violence. While battling each other, cartels still
               face arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to
               avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
               have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
               bloggers in order to cover details of their operations. ok...
               but that's kind of a red herrng for this discussion. You need
               to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't
               just assume they have no cyber presence.

                

               Anonymous' Weapons

               Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
               criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability
               to combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
               disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
               anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites
               in Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
               admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
               guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
               campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
               overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels view main
               stream media outlets and social media blogs as such a threat
               to their operations, that they have continued to target
               journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los
               Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on
               the body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
               denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive
               here, and it's not really addressing the subheading

               As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
               risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to
               suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing information they
               threaten to release. By releasing identities of individuals
               cooperating with Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life
               of those individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate
               sensitive information is limited by what is available via the
               Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
               should always be considered a possibility of an attack.
               However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the US
               governments computer networks, information available to
               Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy to acquire. 
               what are you trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

                

               Cartel's Defense

                           A counter response to the video? by the cartels
               has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a
               kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun
               addressing the threat posed by hackers so... how has there not
               been a counter response? also this undermines your statements
               above about how Anonymous is soley internet based, and
               underlines the vulnerabilities of associated members. How did
               they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that could very
               well give you some indication to the technical ability of the
               cartels . As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
               wide web , the cartels will face a number of challenges which
               rarely are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has
               whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You
               can assume (and we have good intel indicating that) they are
               working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening
               cartels, can operate in any region of the world. Personal
               information including locations is only available if a hacker
               chooses to divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy
               enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only work for
               Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
               online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or
               start employing hackers of their own under their payroll?
               Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                           Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
               Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
               help of computer science majors through personal threats has
               been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported
               where?.  Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence
               and drug trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of
               technical experts to help combat any threat by computer
               hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been
               demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable of
               identifying any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
               enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
               experience and resources than cartels, struggle to find
               hackers through investigations. A) How do you know they are
               not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm
               goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult to
               track down

                           In order to compete with an online foe, cartels
               will likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar
               with, brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
               operations within Mexico "still"? why would we assume they
               wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
               communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
               members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
               likely continue to be used to scare online media into
               submission i'm not really seeing the online
               media-international hacking group connection here.  The cruel
               manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer
               hackers have unlikely encountered before in their life.
               Whether the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence of
               Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels are able to
               seek out and capture members of the hacker group.. Or the
               Narcos could call the collective bluff and simply go on and
               shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

 --
 Sincerely,

 Marko Primorac
 Tactical Analyst
 marko.primorac@stratfor.com
 Tel: +1 512.744.4300
 Cell: +1 717.557.8480
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 18:59:47</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/156443_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>156506</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   On 10/24/11 1:50 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     I agree. I haven't seen any defining attributes of Anonymous as a group.
     They may not even know the identities of each other. There are several
     facebook / twitter Anonymous pages, which seem to be run by different
     individuals.

     What about defining Anonymous in terms of the individual? Instead of
     saying Anonymous attacking cartels, Individuals acting under the
     Anonymous name.... Yes

     -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents have access to,
     and doubt they have such information that provides any sort of
     existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 
     This is a problem with the threat assessment. Technically, anything
     cartel related (emails, online transactions, Mexican LEA information,
     etc.) would be available to a hacker, but we don't know if they have had
     access to this information, or if the hackers interested in harming
     cartels are capable. It's not even confirmed hackers have revealing
     information on cartel supporters which the video claims. Yes, it's not
     exactly a 'threat assessment'.  just say we don't know.  And we can say
     we doubt they have it because they haven't shown much capabilities to
     get at insider/confidential/classified information, rather mostly DDOS
     attacks.  However, there are people that have demonstrated such
     capabilities, and its possible they also joined an 'anonymous'
     campaign--like whoever got the recent personal data out of the Sony
     PSN. 

     On 10/24/11 1:11 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       Somehow we have to stop referring to 'anonymous' as a monolith.  They
       are a bunch of different people that essentially get together in an
       online-form of a mob to carry out some action. I'm not sure how to do
       this in writing consistently.  But let's start with shit like 'people
       joining Anonymous chatrooms and claiming to be part of the movement'
       or something like that. 

       Comments in green below.  This is coming together nicely. 

       On 10/24/11 11:19 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

         do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of
         these in the US?
          What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
         I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
         whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are
         significant because they were specifically mentioned as one of the
         targets in revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack
         of understanding of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in
         Acapulco is expendable to cartels, but may also be cooperating with
         cartels out of coercion.

         Anonymous does not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
         cartels.  mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head
         of el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using
         publication as a tool to force government action. If you reveal
         actionable intelligence, the government will use it against the
         cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step removed.   Agreed,
         but I want to specify that Anonymous can not directly effect
         physical security. Any impact to the cartel in revealing information
         will be from actions of rival cartels or the GoM. They may release
         information on a given politician being linked to the cartels, but
         it's not a guarantee that the politician will feel an impact (Just
         because Anonymous says there is a link, doesn't make it true). It
         would be up to others to take action.  I think the way you have it
         worded in the above sentence is good.  Follow with a sentence
         explaining the rest of it, because readers will have the same
         question Karen did.  Something like 'Rather, the threat to cartels
         would come in what information anonymous could expose that is useful
         to their enemies'

         Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online
         activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to
         conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't know how
         much, but we do know they will have some points of operational
         vulnerability I have heard of cartels doing business online, but
         don't have specific examples which could be used in assessing their
         vulnerability online.

         by "no consequences" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired,
         arrested or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I
         should say, there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out
         politicians as colluding.
         On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

           Karen Hooper
           Latin America Analyst
           o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
           c: 512.750.7234
           STRATFOR
           www.stratfor.com
           On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
           Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
           possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
           Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by people using
           the banner of Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information
           on cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could
           not find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the
           individual being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites
           (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be
           an individual posting flyers ['critical of cartels'?] in Veracruz
           as part of the Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is
           speculation. [this is good and will be enough information to go
           with, though you'll need a quick explanation of what 'operation
           paperstorm' is.  Adding something in the explaining the flyers
           will work]

           Link: themeData
           Anonymous, a decentralized hacker collective  famous for
           distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government and
           corporate websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet
           with a statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including
           a video depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug
           cartels on October 10? With the most recent video release,
           Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels in
           Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers,
           police, politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal
           cartels do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico?
           Are some of these in the US?
            What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The
           hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member
           otherwise face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming
           November 5th was mentioned as a day cartels could expect
           Anonymous' reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped
           member are not met. The potential of conflict between Mexico's
           criminal cartels and hackers, presents a unique threat towards
           TCOs [If TCO= transnational criminal organization, it's not really
           unique.  Many such organizations do their crimes online, and have
           been hacked in response--like the nigerian princess scams. I think
           you should just say it's a unique threat to DTOs] . We know of
           cartels lashing out at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any
           reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers
           before. 

           What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
           threat to Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold
           a gun to the head of el chapo, but there is something to be said
           for the using publication as a tool to force government action. If
           you reveal actionable intelligence, the government will use it
           against the cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step
           removed.  
                o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
           media
                o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash
           out at cartels

           While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
           threat, if it had access to certain types of information:

                   -The threat is in the information they can expose that may
       be of use to any cartel enemies.  That could be to the government or
       other cartels or even local citizens (the last one may be a stretch,
       but i could imagine someone discrediting cartel members in the eyes of
       the public).

                o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims tocut possess
           identifiable information on cartel members 
                o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire
           on cartels [cut this part here, and make the point at the end of
           this section/paragraph]
                o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
           communications, identifiable information on cartels members have
           to be considered in the realm of possibilities for
                       Anonymous
                       o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
           illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels
           are known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We
           don't know how much, but we do know they will have some points of
           operational vulnerability

          -They claim to have information on those that collude with cartels 
       (use the stuff you have above].  Releasing such information could hurt
       cartels' support networks, but most of these people are also easily
       replaceable. 
                   -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents
       have access to, and doubt they have such information that provides any
       sort of existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their
       networks. 

           Most Anonymous hackers are likely far removed from the
           ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico, but it's quite
           possible that some of its members in this campaign are in Mexico
           and opposed to the violence [or something like that.  my limited
           understanding is there are still activist crusader-types in
           Mexico, yeah?  it seems very possible those with a bit of time or
           computer skills could have joined up with anonymous] . As a
           result, their understanding of cartel activities may be limited.
           Anonymous members in other countries may act with confidence when
           sitting in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any
           possible retribution. They may not even know the impact of any
           online assault of cartels.  [the part below and above is written
           rather normatively.  We need to take that out.  just state the
           facts]
                o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
           will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
           individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
           drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
           halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not
           have a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
           Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &amp;
           Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
           consequences from this. by "no consequences" what exactly do you
           mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and that happens
           all the time.
                o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
           are willing to go protect their operations.
                   o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                   o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
           community before, coercing computer science majors into working
           for them.
                   o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
           discovering hackers within Mexico.
           need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply
           publishing tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in
           the same camp as the bloggers  [yes, i think it needs to be clear
           that their damage will be similar to what bloggers or wikileaks
           can do--limited.  But maybe more a danger to themselves, since
           they are no longer challenging governments, but criminal
           organizations]

            

           On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

             Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
             there are several issues to address and fix here.

             These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
             discussion:

                  o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine
             but we can't gloss over that fact
                  o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference
             between stealing bank records from government computers and
             overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                  o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
             information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
             kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
             talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
             politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
             going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
             killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
             operational details, because they acted as informants, because
             they exposed links with officials or because they somehow
             sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
             information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                  o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
             realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a
             measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity
             except for the technical ability by a very small number of its
             members to infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
             information. Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on
             a network that is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)?
             Where else could information be found? Government databases?
             Once we know what kind of information is accessible, we can also
             know more about the consequences of dissemination.
                  o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to
             trace back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of
             killings done by people who may not understand the difference
             between an anon hacker and a blogger.

             On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

               wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

               -------- Original Message --------

                Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                   Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                   From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
               Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                     To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

               you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need
               a lot more work

               You need to lay out:

               a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger
               section is unclear
               b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
               therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
               c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
               anything
               d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill
               anyone who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

               I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
               insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
               levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
               the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
               is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
               business online, in a protected fashion.

               Karen Hooper
               Latin America Analyst
               o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
               c: 512.750.7234
               STRATFOR
               www.stratfor.com
               On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

               On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

               Link: themeData

               Trigger

               Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
               Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?,
               lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
               denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
               released depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a
               screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent video release,
               Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels.
               Threats such as releasing identities of Mexican? American?
               taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who collude
               with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
               release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences.
               The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels
               and hackers, presents an unprecedented war front for the
               cartels. The vastly different operations of Anonymous and Los
               Zetas leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have
               little experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no
               experience with the cartels. I do not believe for a second
               that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                

               In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
               mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
               their demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be
               mentioned right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is
               threatening to hit back. Provide enough details so we
               understand who this guy is and why/how he was abducted. are
               not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing revealing
               information on cartel members and operations are true, cartels
               will likely respond with violence against individuals revealed
               as opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous members?.
               It also is likely that public disclosure of GOM officials who
               collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving
               the Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this
               means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
               effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against
               Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue
               their threats against any individual using online media WC....
               you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers
               here. against the cartels.

                

               The Battle Space

               Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
               realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
               of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
               geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
               exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
               are physical people tho live in the real world. They have
               names and addresses - although most of them are likely outside
               of MX.)  Anonymous' power base consists of their technical
               capabilities in hacking. Any information connected to the
               Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying
               the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's
               population could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of
               what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
               Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in
               revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't run
               operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money via
               e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on the web than
               the jihadists.)

               Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
               base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
               believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
               through the internet. This gives an opening for people
               disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
               dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience =
               troll. Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
               themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of serious IT
               capability. 

               The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has
               been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

               The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US
               and Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking
               to maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
               commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
               and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from
               insight. There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't
               have a similar capacity.  Their power base is built by large
               amounts of revenue and escalating brutal violence. Cartels
               like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing different types of
               threats. Cartels are always suffering at the hands of cartel
               on cartel violence. While battling each other, cartels still
               face arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to
               avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
               have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
               bloggers in order to cover details of their operations. ok...
               but that's kind of a red herrng for this discussion. You need
               to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't
               just assume they have no cyber presence.

                

               Anonymous' Weapons

               Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
               criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability
               to combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
               disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
               anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites
               in Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
               admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
               guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
               campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
               overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels view main
               stream media outlets and social media blogs as such a threat
               to their operations, that they have continued to target
               journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los
               Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on
               the body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
               denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive
               here, and it's not really addressing the subheading

               As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
               risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to
               suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing information they
               threaten to release. By releasing identities of individuals
               cooperating with Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life
               of those individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate
               sensitive information is limited by what is available via the
               Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
               should always be considered a possibility of an attack.
               However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the US
               governments computer networks, information available to
               Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy to acquire. 
               what are you trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

                

               Cartel's Defense

                           A counter response to the video? by the cartels
               has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a
               kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun
               addressing the threat posed by hackers so... how has there not
               been a counter response? also this undermines your statements
               above about how Anonymous is soley internet based, and
               underlines the vulnerabilities of associated members. How did
               they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that could very
               well give you some indication to the technical ability of the
               cartels . As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
               wide web , the cartels will face a number of challenges which
               rarely are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has
               whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You
               can assume (and we have good intel indicating that) they are
               working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening
               cartels, can operate in any region of the world. Personal
               information including locations is only available if a hacker
               chooses to divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy
               enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only work for
               Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
               online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or
               start employing hackers of their own under their payroll?
               Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                           Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
               Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
               help of computer science majors through personal threats has
               been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported
               where?.  Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence
               and drug trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of
               technical experts to help combat any threat by computer
               hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been
               demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable of
               identifying any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
               enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
               experience and resources than cartels, struggle to find
               hackers through investigations. A) How do you know they are
               not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm
               goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult to
               track down

                           In order to compete with an online foe, cartels
               will likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar
               with, brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
               operations within Mexico "still"? why would we assume they
               wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
               communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
               members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
               likely continue to be used to scare online media into
               submission i'm not really seeing the online
               media-international hacking group connection here.  The cruel
               manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer
               hackers have unlikely encountered before in their life.
               Whether the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence of
               Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels are able to
               seek out and capture members of the hacker group.. Or the
               Narcos could call the collective bluff and simply go on and
               shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 20:54:22</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-05 20:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/156506_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>156645</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   I agree. I haven't seen any defining attributes of Anonymous as a group.
   They may not even know the identities of each other. There are several
   facebook / twitter Anonymous pages, which seem to be run by different
   individuals.

   What about defining Anonymous in terms of the individual? Instead of
   saying Anonymous attacking cartels, Individuals acting under the Anonymous
   name....

   -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents have access to,
   and doubt they have such information that provides any sort of existential
   threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 
   This is a problem with the threat assessment. Technically, anything cartel
   related (emails, online transactions, Mexican LEA information, etc.) would
   be available to a hacker, but we don't know if they have had access to
   this information, or if the hackers interested in harming cartels are
   capable. It's not even confirmed hackers have revealing information on
   cartel supporters which the video claims.

   On 10/24/11 1:11 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     Somehow we have to stop referring to 'anonymous' as a monolith.  They
     are a bunch of different people that essentially get together in an
     online-form of a mob to carry out some action. I'm not sure how to do
     this in writing consistently.  But let's start with shit like 'people
     joining Anonymous chatrooms and claiming to be part of the movement' or
     something like that. 

     Comments in green below.  This is coming together nicely. 

     On 10/24/11 11:19 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of
       these in the US?
        What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
       I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
       whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
       because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
       revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of
       understanding of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is
       expendable to cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of
       coercion.

       Anonymous does not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
       cartels.  mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of
       el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication
       as a tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable
       intelligence, the government will use it against the cartels. That's a
       physical threat, if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify
       that Anonymous can not directly effect physical security. Any impact
       to the cartel in revealing information will be from actions of rival
       cartels or the GoM. They may release information on a given politician
       being linked to the cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the
       politician will feel an impact (Just because Anonymous says there is a
       link, doesn't make it true). It would be up to others to take action. 
       I think the way you have it worded in the above sentence is good. 
       Follow with a sentence explaining the rest of it, because readers will
       have the same question Karen did.  Something like 'Rather, the threat
       to cartels would come in what information anonymous could expose that
       is useful to their enemies'

       Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online
       activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to
       conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't know how
       much, but we do know they will have some points of operational
       vulnerability I have heard of cartels doing business online, but don't
       have specific examples which could be used in assessing their
       vulnerability online.

       by "no consequences" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired,
       arrested or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I
       should say, there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out
       politicians as colluding.
       On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
         c: 512.750.7234
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
         Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
         possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
         Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by people using
         the banner of Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on
         cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
         find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual
         being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico
         and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual
         posting flyers ['critical of cartels'?] in Veracruz as part of the
         Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation. [this is
         good and will be enough information to go with, though you'll need a
         quick explanation of what 'operation paperstorm' is.  Adding
         something in the explaining the flyers will work]

         Link: themeData
         Anonymous, a decentralized hacker collective  famous for distributed
         denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government and corporate
         websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
         statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
         depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on
         October 10? With the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold
         threats towards the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as
         releasing identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
         journalists who collude with criminal cartels do they specify
         whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of these in the US?
          What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
         group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
         face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
         was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
         their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
         potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
         presents a unique threat towards TCOs [If TCO= transnational
         criminal organization, it's not really unique.  Many such
         organizations do their crimes online, and have been hacked in
         response--like the nigerian princess scams. I think you should just
         say it's a unique threat to DTOs] . We know of cartels lashing out
         at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels
         dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

         What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
              o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
         threat to Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a
         gun to the head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for
         the using publication as a tool to force government action. If you
         reveal actionable intelligence, the government will use it against
         the cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
              o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
         media
              o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out
         at cartels

         While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
         threat, if it had access to certain types of information:

                 -The threat is in the information they can expose that may
     be of use to any cartel enemies.  That could be to the government or
     other cartels or even local citizens (the last one may be a stretch, but
     i could imagine someone discrediting cartel members in the eyes of the
     public).

              o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims tocut possess
         identifiable information on cartel members 
              o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
         cartels [cut this part here, and make the point at the end of this
         section/paragraph]
              o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
         identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in
         the realm of possibilities for
                     Anonymous
                     o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
         illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels
         are known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We
         don't know how much, but we do know they will have some points of
         operational vulnerability

        -They claim to have information on those that collude with cartels 
     (use the stuff you have above].  Releasing such information could hurt
     cartels' support networks, but most of these people are also easily
     replaceable. 
                 -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents
     have access to, and doubt they have such information that provides any
     sort of existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 

         Most Anonymous hackers are likely far removed from the ultra-violent
         world of drug trafficking in Mexico, but it's quite possible that
         some of its members in this campaign are in Mexico and opposed to
         the violence [or something like that.  my limited understanding is
         there are still activist crusader-types in Mexico, yeah?  it seems
         very possible those with a bit of time or computer skills could have
         joined up with anonymous] . As a result, their understanding of
         cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous members in other
         countries may act with confidence when sitting in front of a
         computer, but this may blind them to any possible retribution. They
         may not even know the impact of any online assault of cartels.  [the
         part below and above is written rather normatively.  We need to take
         that out.  just state the facts]
              o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
         will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
         individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
         drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
         halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not have
         a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
         Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &amp;
         Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
         consequences from this. by "no consequences" what exactly do you
         mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and that happens all
         the time.
              o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
         are willing to go protect their operations.
                 o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                 o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
         community before, coercing computer science majors into working for
         them.
                 o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
         discovering hackers within Mexico.
         need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply
         publishing tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the
         same camp as the bloggers  [yes, i think it needs to be clear that
         their damage will be similar to what bloggers or wikileaks can
         do--limited.  But maybe more a danger to themselves, since they are
         no longer challenging governments, but criminal organizations]

          

         On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

           Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
           there are several issues to address and fix here.

           These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
           discussion:

                o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but
           we can't gloss over that fact
                o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference
           between stealing bank records from government computers and
           overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
           information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
           kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
           talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
           politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
           going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
           killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
           operational details, because they acted as informants, because
           they exposed links with officials or because they somehow sullied
           the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of information is
           damaging to the cartels themselves?
                o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
           realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure
           of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for
           the technical ability by a very small number of its members to
           infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal information.
           Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on a network that
           is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
           information be found? Government databases? Once we know what kind
           of information is accessible, we can also know more about the
           consequences of dissemination.
                o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
           back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings
           done by people who may not understand the difference between an
           anon hacker and a blogger.

           On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

             wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

             -------- Original Message --------

              Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                 Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                 From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
             Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                   To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

             you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a
             lot more work

             You need to lay out:

             a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section
             is unclear
             b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
             therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
             c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
             d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone
             who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

             I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
             insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
             levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
             the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
             is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
             business online, in a protected fashion.

             Karen Hooper
             Latin America Analyst
             o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
             c: 512.750.7234
             STRATFOR
             www.stratfor.com
             On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

             On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             Link: themeData

             Trigger

             Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
             Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed
             out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
             denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released
             depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a screen?
             exactly when?.  With the most recent video release, Anonymous
             makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels. Threats such as
             releasing identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
             politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels.
             The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped
             member otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
             between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
             unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly different
             operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
             Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
             believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
             not believe for a second that the cartels have no experience
             with hackers.

              

             In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned
             as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their
             demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned
             right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening
             to hit back. Provide enough details so we understand who this
             guy is and why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous'
             claims of possessing revealing information on cartel members and
             operations are true, cartels will likely respond with violence
             against individuals revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you
             mean Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public
             disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force the
             GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i
             don't understand what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten
             Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
             against Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will
             continue their threats against any individual using online media
             WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about
             bloggers here. against the cartels.

              

             The Battle Space

             Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
             realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
             of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
             geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
             exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
             are physical people tho live in the real world. They have names
             and addresses - although most of them are likely outside of MX.)
              Anonymous' power base consists of their technical capabilities
             in hacking. Any information connected to the Internet is
             vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of
             individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population
             could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
             has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big
             company with a website that brings in revenue, but it does not
             really matter if you don't run operations on the web. Los Z
             don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are also far less
             dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

             Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
             base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
             believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
             through the internet. This gives an opening for people
             disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
             dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll.
             Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
             themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of serious IT
             capability. 

             The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been
             from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

             The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
             Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
             maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
             commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
             and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight.
             There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar
             capacity.  Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue
             and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
             experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels are
             always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence.
             While battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law
             Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in
             the flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted media
             outlets. Murdering journalists and online bloggers in order to
             cover details of their operations. ok... but that's kind of a
             red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus on the
             possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
             have no cyber presence.

              

             Anonymous' Weapons

             Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
             criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
             combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
             disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
             anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites in
             Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
             admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
             guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
             campaign by technically elite individuals can not be overlooked
             should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream media
             outlets and social media blogs as such a threat to their
             operations, that they have continued to target journalists and
             bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was placed
             with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the body of a
             blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce cartels
             on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not
             really addressing the subheading

             As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
             risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest
             Anonymous is capable of possessing information they threaten to
             release. By releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
             Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
             individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
             information is limited by what is available via the Internet.
             Government computers connected to the Internet should always be
             considered a possibility of an attack. However, as with the
             compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer
             networks, information available to Mexico's intelligence
             collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to
             say here? This isn't clear at all

              

             Cartel's Defense

                         A counter response to the video? by the cartels has
             yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped
             member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the
             threat posed by hackers so... how has there not been a counter
             response? also this undermines your statements above about how
             Anonymous is soley internet based, and underlines the
             vulnerabilities of associated members. How did they find teh
             Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well give you
             some indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
             Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the
             cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed
             for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies
             dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and
             we have good intel indicating that) they are working on
             disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can
             operate in any region of the world. Personal information
             including locations is only available if a hacker chooses to
             divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
             figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous. Cartels
             are only capable of dealing with their online enemy, if they can
             physically reach out to them. Or start employing hackers of
             their own under their payroll? Stranger things have happened,
             Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                         Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
             Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
             help of computer science majors through personal threats has
             been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported where?. 
             Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence and drug
             trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of technical
             experts to help combat any threat by computer hackers.  While
             identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it
             is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
             operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies such
             as the FBi, with far more technical experience and resources
             than cartels, struggle to find hackers through investigations.
             A) How do you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they
             kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are
             equally difficult to track down

                         In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
             likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with,
             brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
             operations within Mexico "still"? why would we assume they
             wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
             communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
             members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
             likely continue to be used to scare online media into submission
             i'm not really seeing the online media-international hacking
             group connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
             inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
             encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of cartel
             violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to be
             seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of
             the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff
             and simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can
             inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 20:50:49</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/156645_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tristan.reed@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>156693</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   yes, marc called them a mob - and that seems accurate

   On 10/24/11 1:33 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     Good point. 
     In terrorist terms they are more like grassroots people than AQ core. 
     From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
     Reply-To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2011 13:11:05 -0500
     To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
     Somehow we have to stop referring to 'anonymous' as a monolith.  They
     are a bunch of different people that essentially get together in an
     online-form of a mob to carry out some action. I'm not sure how to do
     this in writing consistently.  But let's start with shit like 'people
     joining Anonymous chatrooms and claiming to be part of the movement' or
     something like that. 

     Comments in green below.  This is coming together nicely. 

     On 10/24/11 11:19 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of
       these in the US?
        What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
       I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
       whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
       because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
       revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of
       understanding of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is
       expendable to cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of
       coercion.

       Anonymous does not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
       cartels.  mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of
       el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication
       as a tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable
       intelligence, the government will use it against the cartels. That's a
       physical threat, if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify
       that Anonymous can not directly effect physical security. Any impact
       to the cartel in revealing information will be from actions of rival
       cartels or the GoM. They may release information on a given politician
       being linked to the cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the
       politician will feel an impact (Just because Anonymous says there is a
       link, doesn't make it true). It would be up to others to take action. 
       I think the way you have it worded in the above sentence is good. 
       Follow with a sentence explaining the rest of it, because readers will
       have the same question Karen did.  Something like 'Rather, the threat
       to cartels would come in what information anonymous could expose that
       is useful to their enemies'

       Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online
       activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to
       conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't know how
       much, but we do know they will have some points of operational
       vulnerability I have heard of cartels doing business online, but don't
       have specific examples which could be used in assessing their
       vulnerability online.

       by "no consequences" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired,
       arrested or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I
       should say, there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out
       politicians as colluding.
       On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
         c: 512.750.7234
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
         Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
         possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
         Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by people using
         the banner of Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on
         cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
         find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual
         being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico
         and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual
         posting flyers ['critical of cartels'?] in Veracruz as part of the
         Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation. [this is
         good and will be enough information to go with, though you'll need a
         quick explanation of what 'operation paperstorm' is.  Adding
         something in the explaining the flyers will work]

         Link: themeData
         Anonymous, a decentralized hacker collective  famous for distributed
         denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government and corporate
         websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
         statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
         depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on
         October 10? With the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold
         threats towards the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as
         releasing identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
         journalists who collude with criminal cartels do they specify
         whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of these in the US?
          What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
         group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
         face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
         was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
         their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
         potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
         presents a unique threat towards TCOs [If TCO= transnational
         criminal organization, it's not really unique.  Many such
         organizations do their crimes online, and have been hacked in
         response--like the nigerian princess scams. I think you should just
         say it's a unique threat to DTOs] . We know of cartels lashing out
         at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels
         dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

         What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
              o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
         threat to Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a
         gun to the head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for
         the using publication as a tool to force government action. If you
         reveal actionable intelligence, the government will use it against
         the cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
              o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
         media
              o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out
         at cartels

         While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
         threat, if it had access to certain types of information:

                 -The threat is in the information they can expose that may
     be of use to any cartel enemies.  That could be to the government or
     other cartels or even local citizens (the last one may be a stretch, but
     i could imagine someone discrediting cartel members in the eyes of the
     public).

              o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims tocut possess
         identifiable information on cartel members 
              o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
         cartels [cut this part here, and make the point at the end of this
         section/paragraph]
              o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
         identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in
         the realm of possibilities for
                     Anonymous
                     o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
         illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels
         are known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We
         don't know how much, but we do know they will have some points of
         operational vulnerability

        -They claim to have information on those that collude with cartels 
     (use the stuff you have above].  Releasing such information could hurt
     cartels' support networks, but most of these people are also easily
     replaceable. 
                 -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents
     have access to, and doubt they have such information that provides any
     sort of existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 

         Most Anonymous hackers are likely far removed from the ultra-violent
         world of drug trafficking in Mexico, but it's quite possible that
         some of its members in this campaign are in Mexico and opposed to
         the violence [or something like that.  my limited understanding is
         there are still activist crusader-types in Mexico, yeah?  it seems
         very possible those with a bit of time or computer skills could have
         joined up with anonymous] . As a result, their understanding of
         cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous members in other
         countries may act with confidence when sitting in front of a
         computer, but this may blind them to any possible retribution. They
         may not even know the impact of any online assault of cartels.  [the
         part below and above is written rather normatively.  We need to take
         that out.  just state the facts]
              o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
         will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
         individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
         drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
         halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not have
         a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
         Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &amp;
         Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
         consequences from this. by "no consequences" what exactly do you
         mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and that happens all
         the time.
              o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
         are willing to go protect their operations.
                 o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                 o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
         community before, coercing computer science majors into working for
         them.
                 o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
         discovering hackers within Mexico.
         need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply
         publishing tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the
         same camp as the bloggers  [yes, i think it needs to be clear that
         their damage will be similar to what bloggers or wikileaks can
         do--limited.  But maybe more a danger to themselves, since they are
         no longer challenging governments, but criminal organizations]

          

         On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

           Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
           there are several issues to address and fix here.

           These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
           discussion:

                o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but
           we can't gloss over that fact
                o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference
           between stealing bank records from government computers and
           overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
           information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
           kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
           talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
           politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
           going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
           killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
           operational details, because they acted as informants, because
           they exposed links with officials or because they somehow sullied
           the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of information is
           damaging to the cartels themselves?
                o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
           realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure
           of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for
           the technical ability by a very small number of its members to
           infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal information.
           Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on a network that
           is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
           information be found? Government databases? Once we know what kind
           of information is accessible, we can also know more about the
           consequences of dissemination.
                o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
           back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings
           done by people who may not understand the difference between an
           anon hacker and a blogger.

           On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

             wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

             -------- Original Message --------

              Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                 Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                 From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
             Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                   To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

             you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a
             lot more work

             You need to lay out:

             a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section
             is unclear
             b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
             therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
             c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
             d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone
             who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

             I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
             insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
             levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
             the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
             is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
             business online, in a protected fashion.

             Karen Hooper
             Latin America Analyst
             o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
             c: 512.750.7234
             STRATFOR
             www.stratfor.com
             On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

             On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             Link: themeData

             Trigger

             Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
             Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed
             out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
             denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released
             depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a screen?
             exactly when?.  With the most recent video release, Anonymous
             makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels. Threats such as
             releasing identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
             politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels.
             The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped
             member otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
             between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
             unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly different
             operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
             Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
             believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
             not believe for a second that the cartels have no experience
             with hackers.

              

             In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned
             as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their
             demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned
             right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening
             to hit back. Provide enough details so we understand who this
             guy is and why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous'
             claims of possessing revealing information on cartel members and
             operations are true, cartels will likely respond with violence
             against individuals revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you
             mean Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public
             disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force the
             GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i
             don't understand what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten
             Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
             against Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will
             continue their threats against any individual using online media
             WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about
             bloggers here. against the cartels.

              

             The Battle Space

             Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
             realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
             of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
             geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
             exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
             are physical people tho live in the real world. They have names
             and addresses - although most of them are likely outside of MX.)
              Anonymous' power base consists of their technical capabilities
             in hacking. Any information connected to the Internet is
             vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of
             individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population
             could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
             has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big
             company with a website that brings in revenue, but it does not
             really matter if you don't run operations on the web. Los Z
             don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are also far less
             dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

             Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
             base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
             believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
             through the internet. This gives an opening for people
             disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
             dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll.
             Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
             themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of serious IT
             capability. 

             The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been
             from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

             The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
             Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
             maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
             commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
             and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight.
             There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar
             capacity.  Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue
             and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
             experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels are
             always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence.
             While battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law
             Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in
             the flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted media
             outlets. Murdering journalists and online bloggers in order to
             cover details of their operations. ok... but that's kind of a
             red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus on the
             possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
             have no cyber presence.

              

             Anonymous' Weapons

             Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
             criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
             combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
             disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
             anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites in
             Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
             admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
             guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
             campaign by technically elite individuals can not be overlooked
             should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream media
             outlets and social media blogs as such a threat to their
             operations, that they have continued to target journalists and
             bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was placed
             with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the body of a
             blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce cartels
             on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not
             really addressing the subheading

             As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
             risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest
             Anonymous is capable of possessing information they threaten to
             release. By releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
             Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
             individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
             information is limited by what is available via the Internet.
             Government computers connected to the Internet should always be
             considered a possibility of an attack. However, as with the
             compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer
             networks, information available to Mexico's intelligence
             collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to
             say here? This isn't clear at all

              

             Cartel's Defense

                         A counter response to the video? by the cartels has
             yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped
             member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the
             threat posed by hackers so... how has there not been a counter
             response? also this undermines your statements above about how
             Anonymous is soley internet based, and underlines the
             vulnerabilities of associated members. How did they find teh
             Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well give you
             some indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
             Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the
             cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed
             for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies
             dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and
             we have good intel indicating that) they are working on
             disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can
             operate in any region of the world. Personal information
             including locations is only available if a hacker chooses to
             divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
             figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous. Cartels
             are only capable of dealing with their online enemy, if they can
             physically reach out to them. Or start employing hackers of
             their own under their payroll? Stranger things have happened,
             Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                         Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
             Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
             help of computer science majors through personal threats has
             been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported where?. 
             Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence and drug
             trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of technical
             experts to help combat any threat by computer hackers.  While
             identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it
             is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
             operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies such
             as the FBi, with far more technical experience and resources
             than cartels, struggle to find hackers through investigations.
             A) How do you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they
             kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are
             equally difficult to track down

                         In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
             likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with,
             brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
             operations within Mexico "still"? why would we assume they
             wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
             communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
             members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
             likely continue to be used to scare online media into submission
             i'm not really seeing the online media-international hacking
             group connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
             inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
             encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of cartel
             violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to be
             seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of
             the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff
             and simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can
             inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 20:39:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/156693_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>colby.martin@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>156792</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   if anonymous outs taxi cab drivers working with Zeta, they are dead.  that
   is both simple and devastating.  If they release email accounts of GOM
   folks, and there are cartel members in that address book that would be
   devastating.  I think our definitions of devastating are different.  I
   agree the ability of these folks to bring down governments is minimal, but
   I am willing to bet the next deep throat scenario will come via a hacker
   and information they are able to steal. 

   On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already

     2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  The question is if the attack is high
     priority enough.  Many people assume there is no attribution because
     there is no response, but I don't think that is accurate. 
     has NSA told you otherwise?  i am unclear, are you saying the entire
     darknet is mapped, or could be mapped, only it isn't because the NSA
     doesn't care or doens't share? 
     3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new laptop and
     start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack involves much more than
     a recently bought laptop.  In the same way there is an attack cycle for
     a terrorist attack or crime, there is one for a cyber attack.  A very
     simple attack may be as hard to trace as a nearly-random mugging in the
     dark in a neighborhood with much more serious crime and no CCTV cameras.
     so simple=low damage, and complicated = more damage?  if you hacked
     Calderon's blackberry and found out who his contacts were, and one of
     them was Chapo's sister, it would be simple and devastating.  A more
     complicated attack, however, involves pre-operational surveillance,
     developing exploits, developing programs and code, gaining access,
     exploiting that, and carrying out an attack.  And that takes time,
     giving more time for your exposure. Look at everything that went into
     Stuxnet as a great example, that couldn't be done with one person with a
     new laptop.  All of this activity provides activity and evidence which
     helps for attribution.  Of course it is always possible to develop an
     attack, just like any other operation, that even the best law
     enforcement and national intelligence agencies have trouble or cannot
     attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that it's very difficult for
     someone to successfully use Anonymous as a cover and have NSA, GHQ, MID,
     Aman, etc, be unable to attribute it.  They may not choose to cover it
     if it is small scale crime, however. 
     On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored cyber
       warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing that, since
       you can conduct a cyber attack without associating with a hacker group
       and still deny / cover actions on behalf of the State. An individual
       attacking US computer assets from China, may be working by himself or
       on behalf of the Chinese government, but unless the US has other intel
       on the Chinese government's cyber warfare activities in order to
       corroborate there is little capability to distinguish.

       It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
       operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets from
       SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual responsible for
       hacking State run servers. In the past, I have turned to SIGINT
       organizations for collections on computer related material, but this
       was due to the US being behind in cyber warfare, and not knowing where
       to assign responsibility. However, this has changed dramatically in
       the last couple of years.

       Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As an
       extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go to a
       Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the online
       activity to something revealing (accessing personal email accounts,
       tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop, etc..), and
       begin hacking government email accounts then never use the laptop
       again. Unless LEA could get an accurate description of my appearance
       from Starbuck's patrons or possible security cameras, I can not think
       of way to identify me.

       Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to these
       enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied to specific
       computer-related activities because of the difficulty in identifying
       individuals.

       I think the most likely way for a "Anonymous cover" to be blown, would
       be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a common
       participant in "Anonymous" activities, was working for a State?
       Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that State agent
       organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter buddies, what signs
       could a LEA look for to distinguish?

       On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a bit)

         1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything actually
         harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't, but i'm very
         doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first real case where
         they could do some minor damage--to individual people, not not to an
         organization or anything that would come as a serious or strategic
         threat. 

         2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is actually
         pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as a cover, but
         that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could probably still be
         attributed if important enough to those agencies.  The recent attack
         on Sony actually brings this issue up- Whoever is calling themselves
         anonymous denies they did it.  And keep in mind how much they have
         claimed an publicized attacks in the past, even before they were
         carried out.  The attack on the Playstation Network was more
         sophisticated than anonymous' usual work (though potentially
         coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that distracted Sony's IT
         security).  But whoever did it, again, no real damage came of it. 
         Congress is holding hearings over data security, but this is no
         different than the OC groups stealing your credit card information. 
         LE will go after them, have some success, but the threat is not that
         large. 
         On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

           Link: themeData

           I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to have a
           broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no nothing, or
           almost nothing about what this group is and the threat it poses.
           Reviewing their list of attacks
           (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most of
           the cases, they are the "good" guys, sort of a Robin Hood of the
           internet . The interesting thing when it comes to their
           interactions with the cartels is the dubious role they play: at
           the same time they can be fighting crime by revealing cartel
           members/supporters, but they can also put lives in risk.

           However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
           Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can
           conduct a cyber attack under "Anonymous" is worrisome.
           (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

           If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
           websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to know
           more about these guys. Who they are? What are they interested in?
           How they operate? Who they have targeted so far? How can I defend
           myself from them? In what countries are they active? Should I
           worry about them at all? Can I use them to achieve any particular
           goal?

           On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

             nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else
             can build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they
             pose to innocent people caught up in the terror that is Mexico. 
             By focusing on journalists or taxi drivers they show little
             understanding of the situation.  This has long term implications
             in not just Mexico.  They don't consider the consequences of
             their actions and they act without understanding the
             environment.  It was the same when they released information on
             the Sony Playstation network to protest Sony.  They hurt
             innocent people to prove a point. 

             On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

               Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
               possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
               Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by
               Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on cartels
               as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
               find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the
               individual being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites
               (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it
               may be an individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the
               Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

               Link: themeData
               Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
               distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government
               websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
               statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a
               video depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug
               cartels on October 10? With the most recent video release,
               Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels in
               Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers,
               police, politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal
               cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow
               kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. In the
               Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
               day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands
               of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The potential of
               conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
               presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels
               lashing out at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any
               reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers
               before. 

               What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                    o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
               threat to Mexican cartels.
                    o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit
               online media
                    o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to
               lash out at cartels

               While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose
               a threat
                    o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
               identifiable information on cartel members
                    o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could
               acquire on cartels
                    o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
               communications, identifiable information on cartels members
               have to be considered in the realm of possibilities for
                           Anonymous
                           o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to
               reveal illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

               Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
               ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
               result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
               limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting in
               front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
               retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online
               assault of cartels.
                    o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
               journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some
               of these individuals are forced to collude with cartels.    
                         Taxi drivers are often victims of extortion or
               coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the identity of these
               individuals will not have a significant impact on cartel    
                             operations. Politicans have been accused of
               working with cartels (Guerrero &amp; Veracruz' governor) before,
               however there has yet to be any consequences from this.
                    o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent
               cartels are willing to go protect their operations.
                       o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                       o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
               community before, coercing computer science majors into
               working for them.
                       o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
               discovering hackers within Mexico.

                

               On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                 Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea
                 but there are several issues to address and fix here.

                 These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
                 discussion:

                      o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's
                 fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                      o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a
                 difference between stealing bank records from government
                 computers and overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                      o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
                 information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of
                 info is kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You
                 seem to be talking about identities, whose? If anything it's
                 dirty cops, politicians and businessmen who need to worry
                 about what anon is going to be saying. Think about why the
                 bloggers and media were killed in previous instances. Was it
                 because they revealed operational details, because they
                 acted as informants, because they exposed links with
                 officials or because they somehow sullied the cartel's
                 reputation? In short, what kind of information is damaging
                 to the cartels themselves?
                      o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon
                 can realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes
                 a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence
                 capacity except for the technical ability by a very small
                 number of its members to infiltrate certain networks and
                 databases and steal information. Now what kind of
                 information would a cartel keep on a network that is
                 connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else
                 could information be found? Government databases? Once we
                 know what kind of information is accessible, we can also
                 know more about the consequences of dissemination.
                      o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to
                 trace back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of
                 killings done by people who may not understand the
                 difference between an anon hacker and a blogger.

                 On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                   wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                   -------- Original Message --------

                    Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                       Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                       From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
                   Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                         To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

                   you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to
                   need a lot more work

                   You need to lay out:

                   a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger
                   section is unclear
                   b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is,
                   and therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
                   c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
                   anything
                   d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill
                   anyone who breaches their systems or exposes their
                   connections

                   I also just want to point out that we have reasonable
                   reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some
                   significant levels of sophistication in their online
                   presence, to include the use of cyber currencies and
                   significant IT capacity. There is no reason to assume that
                   Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
                   protected fashion.

                   Karen Hooper
                   Latin America Analyst
                   o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                   c: 512.750.7234
                   STRATFOR
                   www.stratfor.com
                   On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                   On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                   Link: themeData

                   Trigger

                   Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
                   Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?,
                   lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
                   statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including
                   a video released depicting...? a person talking? a voice?
                   words on a screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent
                   video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                   criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of
                   Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
                   journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker
                   group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member
                   otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
                   between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
                   unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly
                   different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a
                   conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have little
                   experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no
                   experience with the cartels. I do not believe for a second
                   that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                    

                   In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                   mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                   reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped member
                   this should be mentioned right up front. Cartels have a
                   member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back. Provide
                   enough details so we understand who this guy is and
                   why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims
                   of possessing revealing information on cartel members and
                   operations are true, cartels will likely respond with
                   violence against individuals revealed as opposing cartel
                   members huh? you mean Anonymous members?. It also is
                   likely that public disclosure of GOM officials who collude
                   with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving the
                   Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this
                   means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
                   effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against
                   Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will
                   continue their threats against any individual using online
                   media WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking
                   about bloggers here. against the cartels.

                    

                   The Battle Space

                   Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two
                   separate realities from each other. Anonymous operates
                   solely in sphere of the computer networks. Anonymous does
                   not experience geographical boundaries. All personalities
                   within Anonymous, exist solely in cyber space.  (That is
                   not entirely true. They are physical people tho live in
                   the real world. They have names and addresses - although
                   most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power
                   base consists of their technical capabilities in hacking.
                   Any information connected to the Internet is vulnerable to
                   exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of individual
                   cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population could
                   be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
                   has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or
                   a big company with a website that brings in revenue, but
                   it does not really matter if you don't run operations on
                   the web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They
                   are also far less dependent on the web than the
                   jihadists.)

                   Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's
                   power base consists of the perceived anonymity that its
                   members believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by
                   operating through the internet. This gives an opening for
                   people disgruntled by anything and everything to practice
                   general dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity +
                   audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web of
                   people who identify themselves as "anonymous" have any
                   sort of serious IT capability. 

                   The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has
                   been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

                   The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in
                   US and Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always
                   looking to maximize profits and expand. But they are
                   bricks and mortar commerce. Yes..... but they use the
                   internet to launder money and issue commands. We know that
                   Sinaloa does that from insight. There is no reason to
                   assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity. 
                   Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue and
                   escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
                   experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels
                   are always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel
                   violence. While battling each other, cartels still face
                   arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to
                   avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money,
                   cartels have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists
                   and online bloggers in order to cover details of their
                   operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this
                   discussion. You need to focus on the possible
                   vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
                   have no cyber presence.

                    

                   Anonymous' Weapons

                   Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions
                   against criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous'
                   only ability to combat cartels lay in information
                   operations, mainly disseminating sensitive information on
                   cartels and propagating anti-cartel statements via social
                   media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean so far and
                   that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
                   cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance of
                   a targeted information operations campaign by technically
                   elite individuals can not be overlooked should not be
                   underestimated. Cartels view main stream media outlets and
                   social media blogs as such a threat to their operations,
                   that they have continued to target journalists and
                   bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was
                   placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the
                   body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
                   denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive
                   here, and it's not really addressing the subheading

                   As stated earlier, any information connected to the
                   internet risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample
                   reason to suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing
                   information they threaten to release. By releasing
                   identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
                   cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
                   individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
                   information is limited by what is available via the
                   Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
                   should always be considered a possibility of an attack.
                   However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the US
                   governments computer networks, information available to
                   Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy to
                   acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This isn't
                   clear at all

                    

                   Cartel's Defense

                               A counter response to the video? by the
                   cartels has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous'
                   claims of a kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los
                   Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by hackers
                   so... how has there not been a counter response? also this
                   undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is
                   soley internet based, and underlines the vulnerabilities
                   of associated members. How did they find teh Anonymous
                   member? The answer to that could very well give you some
                   indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
                   Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web
                   , the cartels will face a number of challenges which
                   rarely are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG
                   has whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in
                   cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good intel
                   indicating that) they are working on disrupting the
                   cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in any
                   region of the world. Personal information including
                   locations is only available if a hacker chooses to divulge
                   it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
                   figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous.
                   Cartels are only capable of dealing with their online
                   enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
                   employing hackers of their own under their payroll?
                   Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                               Cartels have been known to coerce the services
                   of Mexican citizens with a technical background.
                   Recruiting the help of computer science majors through
                   personal threats has been reported in the past where? What
                   cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels operate in the
                   world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they will
                   likely need the assistance of technical experts to help
                   combat any threat by computer hackers.  While identifying
                   bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is
                   unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
                   operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies
                   such as the FBi, with far more technical experience and
                   resources than cartels, struggle to find hackers through
                   investigations. A) How do you know they are not in Mexico?
                   (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume
                   that not all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                               In order to compete with an online foe,
                   cartels will likely continue counter tactics they are most
                   familiar with, brute force. Cartels are still capable of
                   their HUMINT operations within Mexico "still"? why would
                   we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged
                   connections to hacker communities will likely be targeted
                   and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and
                   public display of violence will likely continue to be used
                   to scare online media into submission i'm not really
                   seeing the online media-international hacking group
                   connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
                   inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
                   encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
                   cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will
                   remain to be seen until cartels are able to seek out and
                   capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could
                   call the collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off
                   any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 22:29:35</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/156792_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>colby.martin@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>156805</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   As far as Aurora, I haven't followed it closely. Did they ever identify
   the attackers or number of attackers? I thought the target set was the
   only thing that led people to believe the Chinese government was
   responsible.

   2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
   responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating cyber
   intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case HUMINT is
   just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT capabilities does not
   indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers. NSA may have there own
   department for tracking hackers but it does not make it SIGINT.

   Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

   Wikipedia provides an indepth explanation on SIGINT . But in short, SIGINT
   is the capability in exploiting signals provided by communication devices,
   and what can be obtained by exploiting the signals. Combining computer
   network operations and SIGINT is innaccurate, because while SIGINT may be
   used with other intelligence disciplines in order to identify a hacker, it
   is not necessary and is no more related than any other intel discipline.
   SIGINT could help you identify a computer devices (not the operator)
   emitting a signal (wifi), and cryptanalysis, which is also separate from
   SIGINT but often used in conjunction, could help in providing methods to
   decrypt messages over a network, but SIGINT wouldn't obtain those
   messages.

   In order to exploit computer network operations, the operators involved
   are specifically trained in computer science disciplines and technologies
   tailored specifically for computer activity.

   NSA also is the primary agency for cryptanalysis. Because of technological
   demands of SIGINT and cryptanalysis, NSA has enormous resources in R&amp;D, so
   I can see why the USG would move some CNO to NSA. But their SIGINT
   capabilities are not indicators of CNO capabilities.

   Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary labor for
   the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are discussing operations on
   the scale of causing physical damage to extremely sensitive equipment .
   Well, this is an example of a cyber attack that matters, whereeas
   Anonymous so far has not mattered.  You chose the most prolific example of
   a cyber attack (which the whole operation consisted mainly outside of the
   cyber attack itself). Anything that falls short of this doesn't matter?
   Define what matters. None of anonymous' attacks have physically damaged
   secret Iranian nuclear facilities, but I think you are downplaying too
   much the significance of exposing corporate secrets, halting businesses'
   revenues, and embarrassing State actors by defacing their websites.

   On 10/24/11 5:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     On 10/24/11 5:07 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already The USG
         arrested 10 Russian spies last year, are you willing to say foreign
         intel is not capable of conducting espionage undetected? No, of
         course not.  But I also would not argue that the SVR is so good to
         be immune to detection, as you are arguing with hackers.  I'm saying
         they are more detectable than you think.  There is no such thing as
         truly anonymous.  Everythign leaves a trail.  Will that trail in
         every instance lead to a single individual? no.  but it can lead to
         a place, an organization, and often, an individual. 

         2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
         responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating
         cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case
         HUMINT is just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT
         capabilities does not indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers.
         NSA may have there own department for tracking hackers but it does
         not make it SIGINT.

         Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

         The question is if the attack is high priority enough.  Many people
         assume there is no attribution because there is no response, but I
         don't think that is accurate.  Many people say this, because no
         attribution is one reason for no response.  Yes, they do, and if
         they think that is the primary reason for lack of response, then I
         think they are wrong. 

         3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new laptop
         and start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack involves much
         more than a recently bought laptop.  In the same way there is an
         attack cycle for a terrorist attack or crime, there is one for a
         cyber attack.  A very simple attack may be as hard to trace as a
         nearly-random mugging in the dark in a neighborhood with much more
         serious crime and no CCTV cameras.  A more complicated attack,
         however, involves pre-operational surveillance, developing exploits,
         developing programs and code, gaining access, exploiting that, and
         carrying out an attack.  Discovering exploits and writing code can
         be done entirely offline, out of sight of law enforcement or intel
         agencies. Pre-operational surveillance and gaining access (the point
         of the exploit you write offline) would fit in my example. The point
         is, if you don't link your computer to identifiable information, you
         remain anonymous. Just like people use certain methods to build
         IEDs, people use certain mehtods to design programs and code for
         cyber attacks.  Over time, those methods become identifiable and
         more and more attributable. This is, for example, how AURORA is
         linked back to the Chinese.  and very specific Chinese, I may add.
         Being connected or unconnected doesn't matter, eventually you have
         to use what you develop, or copy from someone, and all of those
         things can be analyzed.   And that takes time, giving more time for
         your exposure Exposure comes from network activity with the target,
         a lot of the pre-operational phase of an attack can occur without
         network activity. Look at everything that went into Stuxnet as a
         great example, that couldn't be done with one person with a new
         laptop. Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of
         necessary labor for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are
         discussing operations on the scale of causing physical damage to
         extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of a cyber
         attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not mattered.  
         All of this activity provides activity and evidence which helps for
         attribution.  Of course it is always possible to develop an attack,
         just like any other operation, that even the best law enforcement
         and national intelligence agencies have trouble or cannot
         attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that it's very difficult for
         someone to successfully use Anonymous as a cover and have NSA, GHQ,
         MID, Aman, etc, be unable to attribute it.  How do you know if NSA
         or GHQ is effective in identifying hackers?I don't, but I'm
         confident they are far better than you are allowing for.    They may
         not choose to cover it if it is small scale crime, however. 
         On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

           I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored
           cyber warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing
           that, since you can conduct a cyber attack without associating
           with a hacker group and still deny / cover actions on behalf of
           the State. An individual attacking US computer assets from China,
           may be working by himself or on behalf of the Chinese government,
           but unless the US has other intel on the Chinese government's
           cyber warfare activities in order to corroborate there is little
           capability to distinguish.

           It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
           operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets from
           SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual responsible
           for hacking State run servers. In the past, I have turned to
           SIGINT organizations for collections on computer related material,
           but this was due to the US being behind in cyber warfare, and not
           knowing where to assign responsibility. However, this has changed
           dramatically in the last couple of years.

           Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As an
           extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go to a
           Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the online
           activity to something revealing (accessing personal email
           accounts, tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop,
           etc..), and begin hacking government email accounts then never use
           the laptop again. Unless LEA could get an accurate description of
           my appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible security
           cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

           Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to
           these enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied to
           specific computer-related activities because of the difficulty in
           identifying individuals.

           I think the most likely way for a "Anonymous cover" to be blown,
           would be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a common
           participant in "Anonymous" activities, was working for a State?
           Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that State
           agent organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter buddies, what
           signs could a LEA look for to distinguish?

           On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

             In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a
             bit)

             1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything
             actually harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't, but
             i'm very doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first real
             case where they could do some minor damage--to individual
             people, not not to an organization or anything that would come
             as a serious or strategic threat. 

             2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is actually
             pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as a cover,
             but that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could probably
             still be attributed if important enough to those agencies.  The
             recent attack on Sony actually brings this issue up- Whoever is
             calling themselves anonymous denies they did it.  And keep in
             mind how much they have claimed an publicized attacks in the
             past, even before they were carried out.  The attack on the
             Playstation Network was more sophisticated than anonymous' usual
             work (though potentially coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS
             attacks that distracted Sony's IT security).  But whoever did
             it, again, no real damage came of it.  Congress is holding
             hearings over data security, but this is no different than the
             OC groups stealing your credit card information.  LE will go
             after them, have some success, but the threat is not that
             large. 
             On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

               Link: themeData

               I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to
               have a broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no
               nothing, or almost nothing about what this group is and the
               threat it poses. Reviewing their list of attacks
               (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most
               of the cases, they are the "good" guys, sort of a Robin Hood
               of the internet . The interesting thing when it comes to their
               interactions with the cartels is the dubious role they play:
               at the same time they can be fighting crime by revealing
               cartel members/supporters, but they can also put lives in
               risk.

               However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
               Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can
               conduct a cyber attack under "Anonymous" is worrisome.
               (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

               If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
               websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to
               know more about these guys. Who they are? What are they
               interested in? How they operate? Who they have targeted so
               far? How can I defend myself from them? In what countries are
               they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use them
               to achieve any particular goal?

               On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                 nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything
                 else can build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the
                 threat they pose to innocent people caught up in the terror
                 that is Mexico.  By focusing on journalists or taxi drivers
                 they show little understanding of the situation.  This has
                 long term implications in not just Mexico.  They don't
                 consider the consequences of their actions and they act
                 without understanding the environment.  It was the same when
                 they released information on the Sony Playstation network to
                 protest Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

                 On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                   Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of
                   discussing possible cartel responses, the focus is on what
                   type of threat Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video
                   released by Anonymous, threatens revealing personal
                   information on cartels as well as states a member had been
                   kidnapped. I could not find any sources outside of
                   Anonymous' claims of the individual being kidnapped.
                   According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and
                   Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual
                   posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the Operation
                   Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

                   Link: themeData
                   Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
                   distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government
                   websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with
                   a statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels,
                   including a video depicting a masked individual addressing
                   Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the most recent
                   video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                   criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing
                   identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
                   journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker
                   group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member
                   otherwise face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this
                   coming November 5th was mentioned as a day cartels could
                   expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of releasing a
                   kidnapped member are not met. The potential of conflict
                   between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents a
                   unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out
                   at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on
                   cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

                   What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                        o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical
                   security threat to Mexican cartels.
                        o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit
                   online media
                        o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico
                   to lash out at cartels

                   While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to
                   pose a threat
                        o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
                   identifiable information on cartel members
                        o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could
                   acquire on cartels
                        o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
                   communications, identifiable information on cartels
                   members have to be considered in the realm of
                   possibilities for
                               Anonymous
                               o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability
                   to reveal illicit online activity (child pornography
                   rings)

                   Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
                   ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
                   result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
                   limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting in
                   front of a computer, but this may blind them to any
                   possible retribution. They may not even know the impact of
                   any online assault of cartels.
                        o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
                   journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand
                   some of these individuals are forced to collude with
                   cartels.               Taxi drivers are often victims of
                   extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the
                   identity of these individuals will not have a significant
                   impact on cartel                   operations. Politicans
                   have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &amp;
                   Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be
                   any consequences from this.
                        o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent
                   cartels are willing to go protect their operations.
                           o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                           o    Cartels have reached out to the computer
                   science community before, coercing computer science majors
                   into working for them.
                           o    This provides the cartels with the
                   possibility of discovering hackers within Mexico.

                    

                   On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                     Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the
                     idea but there are several issues to address and fix
                     here.

                     These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with
                     the discussion:

                          o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why.
                     that's fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                          o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a
                     difference between stealing bank records from government
                     computers and overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                          o     There's no thought out process of what sort
                     of information could anon have on the cartels. What kind
                     of info is kept online and accessible to potential
                     attacks? You seem to be talking about identities, whose?
                     If anything it's dirty cops, politicians and businessmen
                     who need to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
                     Think about why the bloggers and media were killed in
                     previous instances. Was it because they revealed
                     operational details, because they acted as informants,
                     because they exposed links with officials or because
                     they somehow sullied the cartel's reputation? In short,
                     what kind of information is damaging to the cartels
                     themselves?
                          o     Once you identify this info - think about if
                     anon can realistically access it and disseminate it so
                     it causes a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any
                     intelligence capacity except for the technical ability
                     by a very small number of its members to infiltrate
                     certain networks and databases and steal information.
                     Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on a
                     network that is connected to the internet (aka no
                     intranet)? Where else could information be found?
                     Government databases? Once we know what kind of
                     information is accessible, we can also know more about
                     the consequences of dissemination.
                          o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel?
                     Sufficient to trace back attacks? If it's not, there
                     risks to be a lot of killings done by people who may not
                     understand the difference between an anon hacker and a
                     blogger.

                     On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                       wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                       -------- Original Message --------

                        Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                           Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                           From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
                       Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                             To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

                       you've got some of the issues here, but this is going
                       to need a lot more work

                       You need to lay out:

                       a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your
                       trigger section is unclear
                       b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence
                       is, and therefore their vulnerabilities and
                       capabilities
                       c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
                       anything
                       d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to
                       kill anyone who breaches their systems or exposes
                       their connections

                       I also just want to point out that we have reasonable
                       reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very least has
                       some significant levels of sophistication in their
                       online presence, to include the use of cyber
                       currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no
                       reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
                       business online, in a protected fashion.

                       Karen Hooper
                       Latin America Analyst
                       o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                       c: 512.750.7234
                       STRATFOR
                       www.stratfor.com
                       On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                       On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                       Link: themeData

                       Trigger

                       Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy,
                       hackers. Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group
                       famous for...?, lashed out at drug cartels via the
                       Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
                       criminal cartels, including a video released
                       depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a
                       screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent video
                       release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                       criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities
                       of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
                       politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal
                       cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a
                       fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences.
                       The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal
                       cartels and hackers, presents an unprecedented war
                       front for the cartels. The vastly different operations
                       of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
                       Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in
                       handling. i believe that Anonymous has no experience
                       with the cartels. I do not believe for a second that
                       the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                        

                       In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                       mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                       reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped
                       member this should be mentioned right up front.
                       Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit
                       back. Provide enough details so we understand who this
                       guy is and why/how he was abducted. are not met. If
                       Anonymous' claims of possessing revealing information
                       on cartel members and operations are true, cartels
                       will likely respond with violence against individuals
                       revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you mean
                       Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public
                       disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will
                       force the GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous
                       threat complexity i don't understand what this means.
                       You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
                       effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
                       against Anonymous remains unanswered . However,
                       cartels will continue their threats against any
                       individual using online media WC.... you mean tools?
                       or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here.
                       against the cartels.

                        

                       The Battle Space

                       Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two
                       separate realities from each other. Anonymous operates
                       solely in sphere of the computer networks. Anonymous
                       does not experience geographical boundaries. All
                       personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in cyber
                       space.  (That is not entirely true. They are physical
                       people tho live in the real world. They have names and
                       addresses - although most of them are likely outside
                       of MX.)  Anonymous' power base consists of their
                       technical capabilities in hacking. Any information
                       connected to the Internet is vulnerable to exploits by
                       hackers. (Identifying the pc's of individual cartel
                       members in the midst of Mexico's population could be
                       quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
                       has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
                       Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings
                       in revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't
                       run operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money
                       via e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on
                       the web than the jihadists.)

                       Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's
                       power base consists of the perceived anonymity that
                       its members believe themselves to have, real or
                       otherwise, by operating through the internet. This
                       gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
                       and everything to practice general dickery. As the
                       popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll. Only
                       a fraction of the large web of people who identify
                       themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of serious IT
                       capability. 

                       The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far
                       has been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement
                       Agencies.

                       The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets
                       in US and Mexican cities. They are run as a business,
                       always looking to maximize profits and expand. But
                       they are bricks and mortar commerce. Yes..... but they
                       use the internet to launder money and issue commands.
                       We know that Sinaloa does that from insight. There is
                       no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a
                       similar capacity.  Their power base is built by large
                       amounts of revenue and escalating brutal violence.
                       Cartels like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing
                       different types of threats. Cartels are always
                       suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence.
                       While battling each other, cartels still face arrests
                       by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid
                       any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
                       have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and
                       online bloggers in order to cover details of their
                       operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for
                       this discussion. You need to focus on the possible
                       vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
                       have no cyber presence.

                        

                       Anonymous' Weapons

                       Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions
                       against criminal cartels has yet to be seen.
                       Anonymous' only ability to combat cartels lay in
                       information operations, mainly disseminating sensitive
                       information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel
                       statements via social media and defaced websites in
                       Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As
                       Anonymous admitted in their video to cartels, they
                       cannot fight with guns.  The significance of a
                       targeted information operations campaign by
                       technically elite individuals can not be overlooked
                       should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream
                       media outlets and social media blogs as such a threat
                       to their operations, that they have continued to
                       target journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message
                       signed by Los Zetas was placed with a dead female
                       body  more relevantly, on the body of a blogger. The
                       message threatened any users who denounce cartels on
                       blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's
                       not really addressing the subheading

                       As stated earlier, any information connected to the
                       internet risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample
                       reason to suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing
                       information they threaten to release. By releasing
                       identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
                       cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
                       individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate
                       sensitive information is limited by what is available
                       via the Internet. Government computers connected to
                       the Internet should always be considered a possibility
                       of an attack. However, as with the compartmentalized
                       nature of the US governments computer networks,
                       information available to Mexico's intelligence
                       collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you
                       trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

                        

                       Cartel's Defense

                                   A counter response to the video? by the
                       cartels has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous'
                       claims of a kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los
                       Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by
                       hackers so... how has there not been a counter
                       response? also this undermines your statements above
                       about how Anonymous is soley internet based, and
                       underlines the vulnerabilities of associated members.
                       How did they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to
                       that could very well give you some indication to the
                       technical ability of the cartels . As Anonymous exists
                       in abstract reality of the world wide web , the
                       cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely
                       are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has
                       whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in
                       cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good intel
                       indicating that) they are working on disrupting the
                       cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in
                       any region of the world. Personal information
                       including locations is only available if a hacker
                       chooses to divulge it or if the subject of the attack
                       is savvy enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only
                       work for Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of
                       dealing with their online enemy, if they can
                       physically reach out to them. Or start employing
                       hackers of their own under their payroll? Stranger
                       things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                                   Cartels have been known to coerce the
                       services of Mexican citizens with a technical
                       background. Recruiting the help of computer science
                       majors through personal threats has been reported in
                       the past where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since
                       cartels operate in the world of urban violence and
                       drug trafficking, they will likely need the assistance
                       of technical experts to help combat any threat by
                       computer hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside
                       of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is unlikely
                       cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
                       operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement
                       agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
                       experience and resources than cartels, struggle to
                       find hackers through investigations. A) How do you
                       know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they
                       kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not all
                       hackers are equally difficult to track down

                                   In order to compete with an online foe,
                       cartels will likely continue counter tactics they are
                       most familiar with, brute force. Cartels are still
                       capable of their HUMINT operations within Mexico
                       "still"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?. 
                       Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
                       communities will likely be targeted and interrogated
                       by cartel members.  Narco banners and public display
                       of violence will likely continue to be used to scare
                       online media into submission i'm not really seeing the
                       online media-international hacking group connection
                       here.  The cruel manners in which cartels inflict
                       harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
                       encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
                       cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous
                       will remain to be seen until cartels are able to seek
                       out and capture members of the hacker group.. Or the
                       Narcos could call the collective bluff and simply go
                       on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can
                       inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

             --

             Sean Noonan

             Tactical Analyst

             Office: +1 512-279-9479

             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

             www.stratfor.com

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-25 02:33:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/156805_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tristan.reed@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>157019</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   Sean, just to be clear

   Your point is that Anonymous hasn't mattered?  Is your argument that
   hackers haven't mattered either?  because if Anonymous is a mob of hackers
   as you argue, how haven't they mattered to their targets?  what about all
   the money spent fighting them?  and as Tristan just pointed out - how
   about HBGary Federal?  He said the CEO's SSN and address were posted on
   Twitter.  What about all the sensitive emails that were lost?  We have no
   way of knowing what was in those emails, or how they are being used to
   make money at the expense of HBGary.  I have always agreed that they
   haven't reached a level of threat to the US, but that surely doesn't mean
   they won't.  And there are quite a few countries, organizations, and
   people below that rather high standard who could not withstand an attack,
   including an email purge of personal emails onto the web. 

   On 10/24/11 7:33 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     As far as Aurora, I haven't followed it closely. Did they ever identify
     the attackers or number of attackers? I thought the target set was the
     only thing that led people to believe the Chinese government was
     responsible.

     2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
     responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating cyber
     intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case HUMINT is
     just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT capabilities does not
     indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers. NSA may have there own
     department for tracking hackers but it does not make it SIGINT.

     Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

     Wikipedia provides an indepth explanation on SIGINT . But in short,
     SIGINT is the capability in exploiting signals provided by communication
     devices, and what can be obtained by exploiting the signals. Combining
     computer network operations and SIGINT is innaccurate, because while
     SIGINT may be used with other intelligence disciplines in order to
     identify a hacker, it is not necessary and is no more related than any
     other intel discipline. SIGINT could help you identify a computer
     devices (not the operator) emitting a signal (wifi), and cryptanalysis,
     which is also separate from SIGINT but often used in conjunction, could
     help in providing methods to decrypt messages over a network, but SIGINT
     wouldn't obtain those messages.

     In order to exploit computer network operations, the operators involved
     are specifically trained in computer science disciplines and
     technologies tailored specifically for computer activity.

     NSA also is the primary agency for cryptanalysis. Because of
     technological demands of SIGINT and cryptanalysis, NSA has enormous
     resources in R&amp;D, so I can see why the USG would move some CNO to NSA.
     But their SIGINT capabilities are not indicators of CNO capabilities.

     Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary labor
     for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are discussing
     operations on the scale of causing physical damage to extremely
     sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of a cyber attack that
     matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not mattered.  You chose the most
     prolific example of a cyber attack (which the whole operation consisted
     mainly outside of the cyber attack itself). Anything that falls short of
     this doesn't matter? Define what matters. None of anonymous' attacks
     have physically damaged secret Iranian nuclear facilities, but I think
     you are downplaying too much the significance of exposing corporate
     secrets, halting businesses' revenues, and embarrassing State actors by
     defacing their websites.

     On 10/24/11 5:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       On 10/24/11 5:07 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

         On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already The USG
           arrested 10 Russian spies last year, are you willing to say
           foreign intel is not capable of conducting espionage undetected?
           No, of course not.  But I also would not argue that the SVR is so
           good to be immune to detection, as you are arguing with hackers. 
           I'm saying they are more detectable than you think.  There is no
           such thing as truly anonymous.  Everythign leaves a trail.  Will
           that trail in every instance lead to a single individual? no.  but
           it can lead to a place, an organization, and often, an
           individual. 

           2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
           responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating
           cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this
           case HUMINT is just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT
           capabilities does not indicate its capabilities in tracking
           hackers. NSA may have there own department for tracking hackers
           but it does not make it SIGINT.

           Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

           The question is if the attack is high priority enough.  Many
           people assume there is no attribution because there is no
           response, but I don't think that is accurate.  Many people say
           this, because no attribution is one reason for no response.  Yes,
           they do, and if they think that is the primary reason for lack of
           response, then I think they are wrong. 

           3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new
           laptop and start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack
           involves much more than a recently bought laptop.  In the same way
           there is an attack cycle for a terrorist attack or crime, there is
           one for a cyber attack.  A very simple attack may be as hard to
           trace as a nearly-random mugging in the dark in a neighborhood
           with much more serious crime and no CCTV cameras.  A more
           complicated attack, however, involves pre-operational
           surveillance, developing exploits, developing programs and code,
           gaining access, exploiting that, and carrying out an attack. 
           Discovering exploits and writing code can be done entirely
           offline, out of sight of law enforcement or intel agencies.
           Pre-operational surveillance and gaining access (the point of the
           exploit you write offline) would fit in my example. The point is,
           if you don't link your computer to identifiable information, you
           remain anonymous. Just like people use certain methods to build
           IEDs, people use certain mehtods to design programs and code for
           cyber attacks.  Over time, those methods become identifiable and
           more and more attributable. This is, for example, how AURORA is
           linked back to the Chinese.  and very specific Chinese, I may add.
           Being connected or unconnected doesn't matter, eventually you have
           to use what you develop, or copy from someone, and all of those
           things can be analyzed.   And that takes time, giving more time
           for your exposure Exposure comes from network activity with the
           target, a lot of the pre-operational phase of an attack can occur
           without network activity. Look at everything that went into
           Stuxnet as a great example, that couldn't be done with one person
           with a new laptop. Writing the code and hacking was just a small
           part of necessary labor for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't
           think we are discussing operations on the scale of causing
           physical damage to extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is
           an example of a cyber attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so
           far has not mattered.   All of this activity provides activity and
           evidence which helps for attribution.  Of course it is always
           possible to develop an attack, just like any other operation, that
           even the best law enforcement and national intelligence agencies
           have trouble or cannot attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that
           it's very difficult for someone to successfully use Anonymous as a
           cover and have NSA, GHQ, MID, Aman, etc, be unable to attribute
           it.  How do you know if NSA or GHQ is effective in identifying
           hackers?I don't, but I'm confident they are far better than you
           are allowing for.    They may not choose to cover it if it is
           small scale crime, however. 
           On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored
             cyber warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing
             that, since you can conduct a cyber attack without associating
             with a hacker group and still deny / cover actions on behalf of
             the State. An individual attacking US computer assets from
             China, may be working by himself or on behalf of the Chinese
             government, but unless the US has other intel on the Chinese
             government's cyber warfare activities in order to corroborate
             there is little capability to distinguish.

             It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
             operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets
             from SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual
             responsible for hacking State run servers. In the past, I have
             turned to SIGINT organizations for collections on computer
             related material, but this was due to the US being behind in
             cyber warfare, and not knowing where to assign responsibility.
             However, this has changed dramatically in the last couple of
             years.

             Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As
             an extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go
             to a Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the
             online activity to something revealing (accessing personal email
             accounts, tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop,
             etc..), and begin hacking government email accounts then never
             use the laptop again. Unless LEA could get an accurate
             description of my appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible
             security cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

             Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to
             these enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied
             to specific computer-related activities because of the
             difficulty in identifying individuals.

             I think the most likely way for a "Anonymous cover" to be blown,
             would be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a
             common participant in "Anonymous" activities, was working for a
             State? Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that
             State agent organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter
             buddies, what signs could a LEA look for to distinguish?

             On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

               In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a
               bit)

               1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything
               actually harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't,
               but i'm very doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first
               real case where they could do some minor damage--to individual
               people, not not to an organization or anything that would come
               as a serious or strategic threat. 

               2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is
               actually pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as
               a cover, but that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could
               probably still be attributed if important enough to those
               agencies.  The recent attack on Sony actually brings this
               issue up- Whoever is calling themselves anonymous denies they
               did it.  And keep in mind how much they have claimed an
               publicized attacks in the past, even before they were carried
               out.  The attack on the Playstation Network was more
               sophisticated than anonymous' usual work (though potentially
               coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that distracted
               Sony's IT security).  But whoever did it, again, no real
               damage came of it.  Congress is holding hearings over data
               security, but this is no different than the OC groups stealing
               your credit card information.  LE will go after them, have
               some success, but the threat is not that large. 
               On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

                 Link: themeData

                 I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to
                 have a broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no
                 nothing, or almost nothing about what this group is and the
                 threat it poses. Reviewing their list of attacks
                 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in
                 most of the cases, they are the "good" guys, sort of a Robin
                 Hood of the internet . The interesting thing when it comes
                 to their interactions with the cartels is the dubious role
                 they play: at the same time they can be fighting crime by
                 revealing cartel members/supporters, but they can also put
                 lives in risk.

                 However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
                 Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth,
                 can conduct a cyber attack under "Anonymous" is worrisome.
                 (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

                 If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
                 websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to
                 know more about these guys. Who they are? What are they
                 interested in? How they operate? Who they have targeted so
                 far? How can I defend myself from them? In what countries
                 are they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use
                 them to achieve any particular goal?

                 On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                   nice.  i still think the central focus, and what
                   everything else can build off of, is that Anonymous
                   doesn't know the threat they pose to innocent people
                   caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing on
                   journalists or taxi drivers they show little understanding
                   of the situation.  This has long term implications in not
                   just Mexico.  They don't consider the consequences of
                   their actions and they act without understanding the
                   environment.  It was the same when they released
                   information on the Sony Playstation network to protest
                   Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

                   On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                     Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of
                     discussing possible cartel responses, the focus is on
                     what type of threat Anonymous can pose to cartels. The
                     video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing
                     personal information on cartels as well as states a
                     member had been kidnapped. I could not find any sources
                     outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being
                     kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous
                     Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be
                     an individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the
                     Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is
                     speculation.

                     Link: themeData
                     Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
                     distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on
                     government websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the
                     Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's criminal
                     cartels, including a video depicting a masked individual
                     addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the
                     most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats
                     towards the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as
                     releasing identities of taxi drivers, police,
                     politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal
                     cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a
                     fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. In
                     the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                     mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                     reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped
                     member are not met. The potential of conflict between
                     Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents a unique
                     threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out at
                     online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on
                     cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

                     What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                          o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical
                     security threat to Mexican cartels.
                          o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to
                     exploit online media
                          o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico
                     to lash out at cartels

                     While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to
                     pose a threat
                          o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to
                     possess identifiable information on cartel members
                          o     It is unknown what information Anonymous
                     could acquire on cartels
                          o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
                     communications, identifiable information on cartels
                     members have to be considered in the realm of
                     possibilities for
                                 Anonymous
                                 o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability
                     to reveal illicit online activity (child pornography
                     rings)

                     Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
                     ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
                     result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
                     limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting
                     in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any
                     possible retribution. They may not even know the impact
                     of any online assault of cartels.
                          o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
                     journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not
                     understand some of these individuals are forced to
                     collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are
                     often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
                     halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals
                     will not have a significant impact on cartel            
                           operations. Politicans have been accused of
                     working with cartels (Guerrero &amp; Veracruz' governor)
                     before, however there has yet to be any consequences
                     from this.
                          o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the
                     extent cartels are willing to go protect their
                     operations.
                             o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                             o    Cartels have reached out to the computer
                     science community before, coercing computer science
                     majors into working for them.
                             o    This provides the cartels with the
                     possibility of discovering hackers within Mexico.

                      

                     On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                       Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the
                       idea but there are several issues to address and fix
                       here.

                       These are the bullets of my main analytical concern
                       with the discussion:

                            o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why.
                       that's fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                            o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a
                       difference between stealing bank records from
                       government computers and overloading www.loszetas.com
                       main page.
                            o     There's no thought out process of what sort
                       of information could anon have on the cartels. What
                       kind of info is kept online and accessible to
                       potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
                       identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
                       politicians and businessmen who need to worry about
                       what anon is going to be saying. Think about why the
                       bloggers and media were killed in previous instances.
                       Was it because they revealed operational details,
                       because they acted as informants, because they exposed
                       links with officials or because they somehow sullied
                       the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
                       information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                            o     Once you identify this info - think about
                       if anon can realistically access it and disseminate it
                       so it causes a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have
                       any intelligence capacity except for the technical
                       ability by a very small number of its members to
                       infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
                       information. Now what kind of information would a
                       cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
                       internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
                       information be found? Government databases? Once we
                       know what kind of information is accessible, we can
                       also know more about the consequences of
                       dissemination.
                            o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel?
                       Sufficient to trace back attacks? If it's not, there
                       risks to be a lot of killings done by people who may
                       not understand the difference between an anon hacker
                       and a blogger.

                       On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                         wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                         -------- Original Message --------

                          Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                             Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                             From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
                         Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                               To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

                         you've got some of the issues here, but this is
                         going to need a lot more work

                         You need to lay out:

                         a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your
                         trigger section is unclear
                         b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence
                         is, and therefore their vulnerabilities and
                         capabilities
                         c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high
                         security anything
                         d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to
                         kill anyone who breaches their systems or exposes
                         their connections

                         I also just want to point out that we have
                         reasonable reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very
                         least has some significant levels of sophistication
                         in their online presence, to include the use of
                         cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
                         is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also
                         conduct business online, in a protected fashion.

                         Karen Hooper
                         Latin America Analyst
                         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                         c: 512.750.7234
                         STRATFOR
                         www.stratfor.com
                         On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                         On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                         Link: themeData

                         Trigger

                         Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy,
                         hackers. Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group
                         famous for...?, lashed out at drug cartels via the
                         Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
                         criminal cartels, including a video released
                         depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a
                         screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent video
                         release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                         criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing
                         identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers,
                         police, politicians, and journalists who collude
                         with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los
                         Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
                         face consequences. The potential of conflict between
                         Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
                         unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly
                         different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas
                         leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have
                         little experience in handling. i believe that
                         Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
                         not believe for a second that the cartels have no
                         experience with hackers.

                          

                         In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
                         was mentioned as a day cartels could expect
                         Anonymous' reaction if their demands of releasing a
                         kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up
                         front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is
                         threatening to hit back. Provide enough details so
                         we understand who this guy is and why/how he was
                         abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of
                         possessing revealing information on cartel members
                         and operations are true, cartels will likely respond
                         with violence against individuals revealed as
                         opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous
                         members?. It also is likely that public disclosure
                         of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force
                         the GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat
                         complexity i don't understand what this means. You
                         mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
                         effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
                         against Anonymous remains unanswered . However,
                         cartels will continue their threats against any
                         individual using online media WC.... you mean tools?
                         or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here.
                         against the cartels.

                          

                         The Battle Space

                         Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two
                         separate realities from each other. Anonymous
                         operates solely in sphere of the computer networks.
                         Anonymous does not experience geographical
                         boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
                         exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely
                         true. They are physical people tho live in the real
                         world. They have names and addresses - although most
                         of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power
                         base consists of their technical capabilities in
                         hacking. Any information connected to the Internet
                         is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying
                         the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst
                         of Mexico's population could be quite difficult.
                          Remember that most of what Anonymous has done are
                         DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big
                         company with a website that brings in revenue, but
                         it does not really matter if you don't run
                         operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money
                         via e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on
                         the web than the jihadists.)

                         Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but
                         it's power base consists of the perceived anonymity
                         that its members believe themselves to have, real or
                         otherwise, by operating through the internet. This
                         gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
                         and everything to practice general dickery. As the
                         popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll.
                         Only a fraction of the large web of people who
                         identify themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of
                         serious IT capability. 

                         The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so
                         far has been from targeted arrests by Law
                         Enforcement Agencies.

                         The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the
                         streets in US and Mexican cities. They are run as a
                         business, always looking to maximize profits and
                         expand. But they are bricks and mortar commerce.
                         Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
                         and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that
                         from insight. There is no reason to assume that Los
                         Zetas don't have a similar capacity.  Their power
                         base is built by large amounts of revenue and
                         escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas,
                         are experienced in facing different types of
                         threats. Cartels are always suffering at the hands
                         of cartel on cartel violence. While battling each
                         other, cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement
                         Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in
                         the flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted
                         media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
                         bloggers in order to cover details of their
                         operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng
                         for this discussion. You need to focus on the
                         possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just
                         assume they have no cyber presence.

                          

                         Anonymous' Weapons

                         Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous'
                         actions against criminal cartels has yet to be seen.
                         Anonymous' only ability to combat cartels lay in
                         information operations, mainly disseminating
                         sensitive information on cartels and propagating
                         anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced
                         websites in Mexico you mean so far and that we know
                         of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
                         cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The
                         significance of a targeted information operations
                         campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
                         overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels
                         view main stream media outlets and social media
                         blogs as such a threat to their operations, that
                         they have continued to target journalists and
                         bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas
                         was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly,
                         on the body of a blogger. The message threatened any
                         users who denounce cartels on blogging websites.
                         getting repetitive here, and it's not really
                         addressing the subheading

                         As stated earlier, any information connected to the
                         internet risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is
                         ample reason to suggest Anonymous is capable of
                         possessing information they threaten to release. By
                         releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
                         Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of
                         those individuals. Anonymous's ability to
                         disseminate sensitive information is limited by what
                         is available via the Internet. Government computers
                         connected to the Internet should always be
                         considered a possibility of an attack. However, as
                         with the compartmentalized nature of the US
                         governments computer networks, information available
                         to Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy
                         to acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This
                         isn't clear at all

                          

                         Cartel's Defense

                                     A counter response to the video? by the
                         cartels has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous'
                         claims of a kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest
                         Los Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by
                         hackers so... how has there not been a counter
                         response? also this undermines your statements above
                         about how Anonymous is soley internet based, and
                         underlines the vulnerabilities of associated
                         members. How did they find teh Anonymous member? The
                         answer to that could very well give you some
                         indication to the technical ability of the cartels .
                         As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
                         wide web , the cartels will face a number of
                         challenges which rarely are posed for them Again,
                         how do you know? The USG has whole agencies
                         dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can
                         assume (and we have good intel indicating that) they
                         are working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers
                         threatening cartels, can operate in any region of
                         the world. Personal information including locations
                         is only available if a hacker chooses to divulge it
                         or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
                         figure it out. Hackers don't only work for
                         Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with
                         their online enemy, if they can physically reach out
                         to them. Or start employing hackers of their own
                         under their payroll? Stranger things have happened,
                         Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                                     Cartels have been known to coerce the
                         services of Mexican citizens with a technical
                         background. Recruiting the help of computer science
                         majors through personal threats has been reported in
                         the past where? What cartels? reported where?. 
                         Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence
                         and drug trafficking, they will likely need the
                         assistance of technical experts to help combat any
                         threat by computer hackers.  While identifying
                         bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it
                         is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any
                         hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
                         enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more
                         technical experience and resources than cartels,
                         struggle to find hackers through investigations. A)
                         How do you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the
                         guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that
                         not all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                                     In order to compete with an online foe,
                         cartels will likely continue counter tactics they
                         are most familiar with, brute force. Cartels are
                         still capable of their HUMINT operations within
                         Mexico "still"? why would we assume they wouldn't
                         be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
                         communities will likely be targeted and interrogated
                         by cartel members.  Narco banners and public display
                         of violence will likely continue to be used to scare
                         online media into submission i'm not really seeing
                         the online media-international hacking group
                         connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
                         inflict harm, is something computer hackers have
                         unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether
                         the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence
                         of Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels
                         are able to seek out and capture members of the
                         hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the
                         collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off any
                         inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

               --

               Sean Noonan

               Tactical Analyst

               Office: +1 512-279-9479

               Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

               Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

               www.stratfor.com

           --

           Sean Noonan

           Tactical Analyst

           Office: +1 512-279-9479

           Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

           Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

           www.stratfor.com

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-25 02:47:49</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/157019_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>157077</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   Yes, in response to your first question. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Colby Martin" &lt;colby.martin@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: analysts@stratfor.com
   Sent: Monday, October 24, 2011 7:47:49 PM
   Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels

   Sean, just to be clear

   Your point is that Anonymous hasn't mattered?  Is your argument that
   hackers haven't mattered either?  because if Anonymous is a mob of hackers
   as you argue, how haven't they mattered to their targets?  what about all
   the money spent fighting them?  and as Tristan just pointed out - how
   about HBGary Federal?  He said the CEO's SSN and address were posted on
   Twitter.  What about all the sensitive emails that were lost?  We have no
   way of knowing what was in those emails, or how they are being used to
   make money at the expense of HBGary.  I have always agreed that they
   haven't reached a level of threat to the US, but that surely doesn't mean
   they won't.  And there are quite a few countries, organizations, and
   people below that rather high standard who could not withstand an attack,
   including an email purge of personal emails onto the web. 

   On 10/24/11 7:33 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     As far as Aurora, I haven't followed it closely. Did they ever identify
     the attackers or number of attackers? I thought the target set was the
     only thing that led people to believe the Chinese government was
     responsible.

     2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
     responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating cyber
     intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case HUMINT is
     just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT capabilities does not
     indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers. NSA may have there own
     department for tracking hackers but it does not make it SIGINT.

     Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

     Wikipedia provides an indepth explanation on SIGINT . But in short,
     SIGINT is the capability in exploiting signals provided by communication
     devices, and what can be obtained by exploiting the signals. Combining
     computer network operations and SIGINT is innaccurate, because while
     SIGINT may be used with other intelligence disciplines in order to
     identify a hacker, it is not necessary and is no more related than any
     other intel discipline. SIGINT could help you identify a computer
     devices (not the operator) emitting a signal (wifi), and cryptanalysis,
     which is also separate from SIGINT but often used in conjunction, could
     help in providing methods to decrypt messages over a network, but SIGINT
     wouldn't obtain those messages.

     In order to exploit computer network operations, the operators involved
     are specifically trained in computer science disciplines and
     technologies tailored specifically for computer activity.

     NSA also is the primary agency for cryptanalysis. Because of
     technological demands of SIGINT and cryptanalysis, NSA has enormous
     resources in R&amp;D, so I can see why the USG would move some CNO to NSA.
     But their SIGINT capabilities are not indicators of CNO capabilities.

     Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary labor
     for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are discussing
     operations on the scale of causing physical damage to extremely
     sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of a cyber attack that
     matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not mattered.  You chose the most
     prolific example of a cyber attack (which the whole operation consisted
     mainly outside of the cyber attack itself). Anything that falls short of
     this doesn't matter? Define what matters. None of anonymous' attacks
     have physically damaged secret Iranian nuclear facilities, but I think
     you are downplaying too much the significance of exposing corporate
     secrets, halting businesses' revenues, and embarrassing State actors by
     defacing their websites.

     On 10/24/11 5:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       On 10/24/11 5:07 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

         On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already The USG
           arrested 10 Russian spies last year, are you willing to say
           foreign intel is not capable of conducting espionage undetected?
           No, of course not.  But I also would not argue that the SVR is so
           good to be immune to detection, as you are arguing with hackers. 
           I'm saying they are more detectable than you think.  There is no
           such thing as truly anonymous.  Everythign leaves a trail.  Will
           that trail in every instance lead to a single individual? no.  but
           it can lead to a place, an organization, and often, an
           individual. 

           2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
           responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating
           cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this
           case HUMINT is just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT
           capabilities does not indicate its capabilities in tracking
           hackers. NSA may have there own department for tracking hackers
           but it does not make it SIGINT.

           Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

           The question is if the attack is high priority enough.  Many
           people assume there is no attribution because there is no
           response, but I don't think that is accurate.  Many people say
           this, because no attribution is one reason for no response.  Yes,
           they do, and if they think that is the primary reason for lack of
           response, then I think they are wrong. 

           3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new
           laptop and start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack
           involves much more than a recently bought laptop.  In the same way
           there is an attack cycle for a terrorist attack or crime, there is
           one for a cyber attack.  A very simple attack may be as hard to
           trace as a nearly-random mugging in the dark in a neighborhood
           with much more serious crime and no CCTV cameras.  A more
           complicated attack, however, involves pre-operational
           surveillance, developing exploits, developing programs and code,
           gaining access, exploiting that, and carrying out an attack. 
           Discovering exploits and writing code can be done entirely
           offline, out of sight of law enforcement or intel agencies.
           Pre-operational surveillance and gaining access (the point of the
           exploit you write offline) would fit in my example. The point is,
           if you don't link your computer to identifiable information, you
           remain anonymous. Just like people use certain methods to build
           IEDs, people use certain mehtods to design programs and code for
           cyber attacks.  Over time, those methods become identifiable and
           more and more attributable. This is, for example, how AURORA is
           linked back to the Chinese.  and very specific Chinese, I may add.
           Being connected or unconnected doesn't matter, eventually you have
           to use what you develop, or copy from someone, and all of those
           things can be analyzed.   And that takes time, giving more time
           for your exposure Exposure comes from network activity with the
           target, a lot of the pre-operational phase of an attack can occur
           without network activity. Look at everything that went into
           Stuxnet as a great example, that couldn't be done with one person
           with a new laptop. Writing the code and hacking was just a small
           part of necessary labor for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't
           think we are discussing operations on the scale of causing
           physical damage to extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is
           an example of a cyber attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so
           far has not mattered.   All of this activity provides activity and
           evidence which helps for attribution.  Of course it is always
           possible to develop an attack, just like any other operation, that
           even the best law enforcement and national intelligence agencies
           have trouble or cannot attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that
           it's very difficult for someone to successfully use Anonymous as a
           cover and have NSA, GHQ, MID, Aman, etc, be unable to attribute
           it.  How do you know if NSA or GHQ is effective in identifying
           hackers?I don't, but I'm confident they are far better than you
           are allowing for.    They may not choose to cover it if it is
           small scale crime, however. 
           On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored
             cyber warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing
             that, since you can conduct a cyber attack without associating
             with a hacker group and still deny / cover actions on behalf of
             the State. An individual attacking US computer assets from
             China, may be working by himself or on behalf of the Chinese
             government, but unless the US has other intel on the Chinese
             government's cyber warfare activities in order to corroborate
             there is little capability to distinguish.

             It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
             operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets
             from SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual
             responsible for hacking State run servers. In the past, I have
             turned to SIGINT organizations for collections on computer
             related material, but this was due to the US being behind in
             cyber warfare, and not knowing where to assign responsibility.
             However, this has changed dramatically in the last couple of
             years.

             Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As
             an extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go
             to a Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the
             online activity to something revealing (accessing personal email
             accounts, tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop,
             etc..), and begin hacking government email accounts then never
             use the laptop again. Unless LEA could get an accurate
             description of my appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible
             security cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

             Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to
             these enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied
             to specific computer-related activities because of the
             difficulty in identifying individuals.

             I think the most likely way for a "Anonymous cover" to be blown,
             would be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a
             common participant in "Anonymous" activities, was working for a
             State? Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that
             State agent organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter
             buddies, what signs could a LEA look for to distinguish?

             On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

               In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a
               bit)

               1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything
               actually harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't,
               but i'm very doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first
               real case where they could do some minor damage--to individual
               people, not not to an organization or anything that would come
               as a serious or strategic threat. 

               2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is
               actually pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as
               a cover, but that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could
               probably still be attributed if important enough to those
               agencies.  The recent attack on Sony actually brings this
               issue up- Whoever is calling themselves anonymous denies they
               did it.  And keep in mind how much they have claimed an
               publicized attacks in the past, even before they were carried
               out.  The attack on the Playstation Network was more
               sophisticated than anonymous' usual work (though potentially
               coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that distracted
               Sony's IT security).  But whoever did it, again, no real
               damage came of it.  Congress is holding hearings over data
               security, but this is no different than the OC groups stealing
               your credit card information.  LE will go after them, have
               some success, but the threat is not that large. 
               On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

                 I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to
                 have a broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no
                 nothing, or almost nothing about what this group is and the
                 threat it poses. Reviewing their list of attacks
                 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in
                 most of the cases, they are the a**gooda** guys, sort of a
                 Robin Hood of the internet . The interesting thing when it
                 comes to their interactions with the cartels is the dubious
                 role they play: at the same time they can be fighting crime
                 by revealing cartel members/supporters, but they can also
                 put lives in risk.

                 However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
                 Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth,
                 can conduct a cyber attack under a**Anonymousa** is
                 worrisome.
                 (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

                 If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
                 websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to
                 know more about these guys. Who they are? What are they
                 interested in? How they operate? Who they have targeted so
                 far? How can I defend myself from them? In what countries
                 are they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use
                 them to achieve any particular goal?

                 On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                   nice.  i still think the central focus, and what
                   everything else can build off of, is that Anonymous
                   doesn't know the threat they pose to innocent people
                   caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing on
                   journalists or taxi drivers they show little understanding
                   of the situation.  This has long term implications in not
                   just Mexico.  They don't consider the consequences of
                   their actions and they act without understanding the
                   environment.  It was the same when they released
                   information on the Sony Playstation network to protest
                   Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

                   On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                     Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of
                     discussing possible cartel responses, the focus is on
                     what type of threat Anonymous can pose to cartels. The
                     video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing
                     personal information on cartels as well as states a
                     member had been kidnapped. I could not find any sources
                     outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being
                     kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous
                     Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be
                     an individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the
                     Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is
                     speculation.

                     Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
                     distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on
                     government websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the
                     Internet with a statements denouncing Mexicoa**s
                     criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked
                     individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October
                     10? With the most recent video release, Anonymous makes
                     bold threats towards the criminal cartels in Mexico.
                     Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers,
                     police, politicians, and journalists who collude with
                     criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
                     release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
                     consequences. In the Anonymousa** video, this coming
                     November 5th was mentioned as a day cartels could expect
                     Anonymousa** reaction if their demands of releasing a
                     kidnapped member are not met. The potential of conflict
                     between Mexicoa**s criminal cartels and hackers,
                     presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of
                     cartels lashing out at online bloggers, but I havena**t
                     seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches
                     from hackers before. 

                     What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                         a*-c-    Anonymous would not pose a direct physical
                     security threat to Mexican cartels.
                         a*-c-    Anonymous' power base is the ability to
                     exploit online media
                         a*-c-    Anonymous hackers do not have to be in
                     Mexico to lash out at cartels

                     While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to
                     pose a threat
                         a*-c-    It is unknown if Anonymousa**s claims to
                     possess identifiable information on cartel members
                         a*-c-    It is unknown what information Anonymous
                     could acquire on cartels
                         a*-c-    Bank accounts, any online transactions or
                     communications, identifiable information on cartels
                     members have to be considered in the realm of
                     possibilities for
                                 Anonymous
                                 o    Anonymous has demonstrated ita**s
                     ability to reveal illicit online activity (child
                     pornography rings)

                     Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
                     ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
                     result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
                     limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting
                     in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any
                     possible retribution. They may not even know the impact
                     of any online assault of cartels.
                         a*-c-    Revealing information on taxi drivers and
                     journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not
                     understand some of these individuals are forced to
                     collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are
                     often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
                     halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals
                     will not have a significant impact on cartel            
                           operations. Politicans have been accused of
                     working with cartels (Guerrero &amp; Veracruz' governor)
                     before, however there has yet to be any consequences
                     from this.
                         a*-c-    Anonymous hackers may not understand the
                     extent cartels are willing to go protect their
                     operations.
                             o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                             o    Cartels have reached out to the computer
                     science community before, coercing computer science
                     majors into working for them.
                             o    This provides the cartels with the
                     possibility of discovering hackers within Mexico.

                      

                     On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                       Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the
                       idea but there are several issues to address and fix
                       here.

                       These are the bullets of my main analytical concern
                       with the discussion:

                           a*-c-    we don't know who got kidnapped or why.
                       that's fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                           a*-c-    "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a
                       difference between stealing bank records from
                       government computers and overloading www.loszetas.com
                       main page.
                           a*-c-    There's no thought out process of what
                       sort of information could anon have on the cartels.
                       What kind of info is kept online and accessible to
                       potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
                       identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
                       politicians and businessmen who need to worry about
                       what anon is going to be saying. Think about why the
                       bloggers and media were killed in previous instances.
                       Was it because they revealed operational details,
                       because they acted as informants, because they exposed
                       links with officials or because they somehow sullied
                       the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
                       information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                           a*-c-    Once you identify this info - think about
                       if anon can realistically access it and disseminate it
                       so it causes a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have
                       any intelligence capacity except for the technical
                       ability by a very small number of its members to
                       infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
                       information. Now what kind of information would a
                       cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
                       internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
                       information be found? Government databases? Once we
                       know what kind of information is accessible, we can
                       also know more about the consequences of
                       dissemination.
                           a*-c-    What's the IT capacity of a cartel?
                       Sufficient to trace back attacks? If it's not, there
                       risks to be a lot of killings done by people who may
                       not understand the difference between an anon hacker
                       and a blogger.

                       On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                         wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                         -------- Original Message --------

                          Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                             Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                             From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
                         Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                               To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

                         you've got some of the issues here, but this is
                         going to need a lot more work

                         You need to lay out:

                         a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your
                         trigger section is unclear
                         b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence
                         is, and therefore their vulnerabilities and
                         capabilities
                         c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high
                         security anything
                         d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to
                         kill anyone who breaches their systems or exposes
                         their connections

                         I also just want to point out that we have
                         reasonable reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very
                         least has some significant levels of sophistication
                         in their online presence, to include the use of
                         cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
                         is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also
                         conduct business online, in a protected fashion.

                         Karen Hooper
                         Latin America Analyst
                         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                         c: 512.750.7234
                         STRATFOR
                         www.stratfor.com
                         On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                         On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                         --
                         Sean Noonan
                         Tactical Analyst
                         Office: +1 512-279-9479
                         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
                         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
                         www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-25 03:18:15</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/157077_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>157151</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT - AZ/RUSSIA/TURKEY/IRAN - the energy soap opera -
 AZ is in trouble
</title>
    <description>   Met with the adviser to SOCAR president. The president is currently in
   Ankara trying to finalize negotiations with Turkey for gas transit. The
   adviser I met with is going to Brussels tomorrow to meet with NATO (will
   explain why further below.)

   The adviser is Western-educated, obviously knows how to handle himself in
   a negotiation, but opened up quite a bit in the discussion.

   The first step AZ is focusing on is to get this agreement with Turkey,
   which he gives a a 50/50 chance of being finalized tomorrow (Wednesday) in
   Ankara. The basic premise of the deal is Turkey guarantees purchase of 6
   bcm for its domestic market.  Turkey then has to guarantee 10 bcm for
   TRANSPORT (not necessarily purchase for itself) for Az's buyers in Europe.
   He couldn't disclose the price that they're currently negotiating over 6
   bcm, but said the Turkish press has been claiming some prices favorable of
   course to Turkish interests. He said though that the price was very much
   competitive in comparison to the high price TUrkey pays to Russia for its
   natural gas, and AZ understands that it needs to keep that price
   competitive to get this deal through. He said that Turkey and AZ have
   agreed on a price and that the remaining issues being negotiated right now
   have to do with technical details on quality of gas, regulations, etc.
   These are all 25 year contracts.  AZ's main priority right now is simply
   to guarantee somehow, some way that it will have a market for 16 bcm by
   2017.  The Azerbaijanis don't really care which route it takes (of course
   they're looking out for their financial interests,) but the main thing is
   to just make sure they are able to sell this amount of gas no matter what.
   (keep this in mind when it comes to Russia..)

   After AZ makes this agreement with Turkey, then it will decide which
   transport route is most feasible/favorable to their interests.  Contrary
   to what the press is saying, I don't get the impression at all that AZ is
   close to picking the transport route yet.  He explained all 8 main
   criteria that AZ uses to compare the different routes (ITGI, TAP, Nabucco,
   the most recent SEEP) - price of gas, tariff, transport, regulation,
   political feasibility, project feasibility, etc. He avoided saying if any
   one of these projects is more favorable than the others, but pointed out
   that there are issues with each. Nabucco of course is very ambitious and
   the funding for the project is unclear. (He referred to the fact that only
   Az is committed to supply.) For TAP he said it may be more technically
   feasible, then he said there were 'political problems' there. I asked
   whether he meant between Turkey and Greece and he said no, but if you look
   at the map it would go through Greece, Albania and Turkey, and 2 out of
   those 3 countries have issues with each other. (Didn't realize that the
   Greece-Albania/Macedonia factor was that big a deal in this, but
   apparently it is.) He also didn't seem too thrilled with ITGI, either,
   mainly blaming it on problems with Greek regulations and bureaucracy and
   being consumed with its own financial turmoil.  He seemed most interested
   in the South Eastern European Project, the most recent one that BP is
   involved in. The problem he said is that SEEP is not that mature yet in
   all the feasibility studies and what-not, but what's most attractive about
   it is that it requires far less construction and thus is less costly than
   the other 3 options.  There is no plan yet for sponsorship on SEEP.  SOCAR
   would need a significant stake in any of these projects as a major
   shareholder, but they haven't really advanced negotiations yet on this
   proposal with the energy firms expected to be involved from Hungary,
   Bulgaria, Romania.

   What is most interesting in all this is the Russian factor. The source
   would continue to emphasize how good and personal a relationship Aliyev
   has with Putin on these matters (as well as with top-management of
   Gazprom), but he would visibly become uncomfortable and shift in his seat
   whenever I brought up Russia. AZ understands completely that it has to
   pull off a very clever balancing act with the Russians if it intends to
   see any of these projects go through. The Russians are completely playing
   it cool. He said that the last major meeting Russia had with the
   Azerbaijanis on this was back in August. They're just watching and
   waiting.  I get the impression that the Russians are quite confident in
   the levers they have to further stall any of these alternate transit
   plans. He confirmed what I heard from another Azerbaijani diplomatic
   source earlier in the day about how in 2008 Azerbaijan made an offer to
   Russia to supply around 50 percent or so of its natural gas to the South
   Stream pipeline. This was AZ's way of making a concession to Russia to
   balance against its other energy projects that circumvent Russia.  Russia
   didn't bite, though.  The Russians gave them every excuse in the book,
   saying it wasn't technically or logistically feasible. Instead, the
   Russians said that if you want to deal, then make sure that all of AZ's 16
   bcm go through Russia, and Russia only -- not to Turkey/Europe. I asked if
   the Russians are still sticking to the same core demand today, and he said
   yes.  The Azerbaijanis are also trying to soften Russia by giving them all
   these rights on trans-Caspian route with Turkmenistan, but that's not
   working either. The AZ diplomatic source earlier in the day said that
   Russia has all these levers with Georgia already (they got the hint in
   2008 and knew Russia could have bombed BTC if it wanted to. The Russians
   also have a close relationship with Germany, which the Azerbaijanis have
   taken note of. What I'm getting from all this is that Azerbaijan is quite
   concerned that Russia may have what it takes to block these projects and
   throw off the timeline again for Shah Deniz II. SOCAR source said that
   Russia should know better than to use 'uncivilized' tactics in pursuing
   its energy interests (haha.)

   I asked both of these guys individually (the diplomatic source and the
   SOCAR source) whether that means AZ envisions having to eventually just
   give in and sell the bulk of its gas to Russia. Both reacted very
   similarly. They would look down, sigh and admit yes. Of course, AZ really,
   really does not want to do this. They don't want to become dependent on
   the Russians and know that the Russians would manipulate the hell out of
   those contracts. They're trying to convince Turkey that being so dependent
   on Russian gas is a very bad idea. It all comes down to Turkey. AZ
   absolutely needs Turkey to guarantee transit of this gas no matter what.
   If Turkey doesn't do this, AZ will have to turn back to Russia.

   What the diplomatic source stressed heavily is that the US simply isnt
   there the way it was in the 1990s when BTC was being negotiated. Back
   then, US was ready to drive that project home and force feed it to Russia.
   The Europeans don't even come close to that attitude. AZ doesn't have the
   political backing they need of an external power to see through these
   projects, in my opinion.

   I asked the SOCAR source what the plans are for expanding AZ energy
   transit to Russia. Right now AZ is exporting 1.5 bcm to Russia. He says
   that AZ wants to expand that to 2 bcm next year and then possibly expand
   to 3 bcm, but is worried that Russia will be pissed off and not agree if
   AZ and Turkey come to a deal. The currnet line to Russia is old and would
   need upgrades if they tried to reach capacity of around 7 bcm. Gazprom is
   happy to do these upgrades and more -- as long as AZ transports all 16 bcm
   to Russia first. They aren't budging on that demand.

   I asked SOCAR source if he says any shift out of Turkmenistan on
   trans-Caspian. He had an interesting reply on this -- basically, AZ's
   whole strategy on Turkmenistan is to steer clear and play nice with the
   Russians. AZ's firm policy on Turkmenistan is 'you guys sort out your
   political issues with Europe AND with Russia, get the financing, build the
   pipeline, and we guarantee you'll be able to transit gas through
   Azerbaijan." In other words, AZ does not want to get entangled in any
   Turkmenistan political issue with Russia. They are being extremely careful
   on that front. Don't expect any movement on this end any time soon.

   Then, I brought up the Iran factor, which I find the most fascinating in
   all this.  What I heard from the Israeli ambassador a few days ago was
   that there is another big issue cropping up with Shah Deniz II concerning
   Iran.  As part of AZ's geopolitical balancing act, it made sure Iran had a
   10% stake in the Shah Deniz consortium. Now, the US congress and sanctions
   lobby is ratcheting up the pressure saying that this makes the whole
   project sanctionable. The Israeli amb said that BP is now saying they may
   not be able to go through with the project unless AZ resolves this Iran
   issue. (What is ironic is that the SOCAR guy said they will work very
   closely with the Israeli lobby in DC to convince the congress that Iran is
   not a major problem). The guy also said that Iran is not a problem because
   1) they don't have the right of decision-making 2) SD phase II's revenue
   will go to a bank in Europe, in which Iran's money will be frozen. Source
   claims that Iranians basically agreed to participate in SD2 without
   getting an immediate interest. The SOCAR source said that BP hasn't put it
   in that blunt terms, but he admitted this is becoming a big issue. He
   described how impossible it's going to be for AZ to deal with this because
   the legislation already dictates that AZ can't simply 'kick out' a member
   of the consortium. The consortium shareholder must also agree to leave. 
   Plus, AZ really does not want to piss off the Iranians right now. The
   securitiy tensions are seriously increasing between AZ and Iran (will
   explain in more detail later), and the Israeli cooperation with AZ isn't
   really helping alleviate those tensions, either. Instead, AZ is trying to
   convince NATO (This is why SOCAR source is going to Brussels tomorrow as
   he later admitted,) and the US that the cost of trying to exclude Iran is
   not worth it. THey are trying to assure US, BP, NATO, etc. that Iran
   'can't profit' off the SHah Deniz project anyway because all the money
   they get from it is going to European banks where their assets are frozen
   (not a very convincing argument, if you ask me.)  More importantly,
   they're saying that if the US tries to make Shah Deniz II contingent on
   kicking Iran out, then the whole southeastern corridor project is doomed.
   In fact, AZ could just send 10 bcm to Iran instead at a very favorable
   price. He went on to say, 'better yet, we could give 5 bcm to Russia and 5
   bcm to Iran'." Then let's see what US says.

   This is a really tough negotiation that AZ is getting into right now. In
   December, AZ is sending a high-level delegation to the US to try to
   convince them to not screw this up over Iran. The source joked at the end
   that our conversation (which got pretty intense) was a good rehearsal for
   his meeting at NATO HQ in Brussels, where he basically has to give the
   argument that i just outlined. I think it's going to be very difficult for
   AZ to make this case, though. Should have more perspective on this issue
   from the Israelis after a dinner meeting tonight.

   Trying to make AZ into a Dubai - transit hub for flights, searching for
   niche in non-oil sector - cheaper for refueling for asia flights to stop
   in Baku, expand Elat port
</description>
    <date>2011-10-25 15:03:16</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/157151_-alpha-insight-az-russia-turkey-iran-the-energy-soap-opera.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>157158</id>
    <title>Re: MORE* - Re: G3* - LEBANON/CYPRUS - FM to go to Cyprus for talks
	on	maritime border, says Qabbani
</title>
    <description>   hah - i was expecting this. now, turkey seems to be countering Cyprus'
   move by partnering with Lebanon. There are couple of dynamics here:
   - Cyrpus and Lebanon signed their maritime treaty in 2007 and at the time
   everything was fine.
   - Israel found vast nat gas reserves in Leviathan and Tamal. 
   - Lebanon and Israel have a dispute over EEZ demarcation (Leb claims that
   Israel breaches 860 sq km of its EEZ space).
   - Cyprus knows that it is able to push its exploration ambitions thanks to
   the disagreements btw Turkey and Isr (bear in mind that Cyprus and Isr
   signed a maritime agreement few months after Mavi Marmara incident). So, I
   don't think that it will adjust its treaty with Lebanon at the expense of
   Israel.
   - Turkey sees an opportunity to use Leb/Isr dispute as a means to contain
   Cyprus and Israel, but again, what can it do?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Michael Wilson" &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "alerts" &lt;alerts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, October 19, 2011 6:44:24 PM
   Subject: MORE* - Re: G3* - LEBANON/CYPRUS - FM to go to Cyprus for talks
   on        maritime border, says Qabbani

   Mansour: Turkish delegation to discuss Lebanona**s maritime treaty with
   Cyprus
   October 19, 2011   share
        
   http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=323702

   Minister of Foreign Affairs Adnan Mansour said on Wednesday that Turkey
   a**will send a team to hold discussions with Lebanese officials regarding
   [Lebanona**s] maritime treaty with Cyprus, since Ankara has its own point
   of view regarding the treaty,a** the National News Agency reported.

   Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu had told Prime Minister Najib
   Mikati that his country rejects Lebanona**s maritime treaty with Cyprus.

   Mansour also said that Iranian ambassador to Lebanon Ghadanfar Roken
   Abadia**s visit to Lebanona**s Foreign Ministry on Thursday will tackle
   preparations for Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehia**s upcoming
   visit to Lebanon next week.

   On 10/17/11 11:58 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

     FM to go to Cyprus for talks on maritime border, says Qabbani
     October 17, 2011   share
        
     http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=322952

     Parliamentary Energy and Water Committee chief Mohammad Qabbani said on
     Monday that Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour will head to Cyprus to
     continue talks about amending the maritime treaty between the two
     countries.

     a**Mansour will head to Cyprus to amend the treaty made with Cyprus
     concerning Lebanona**s economic zone and to prepare for the treaty [to
     demarcate the border] with Cyprus,a** the National News agency quoted
     Qabbani as saying.

     a**[Simultaneously] discussions will be held with Syria to demarcate the
     maritime borders between [Lebanon and Syria],a** he added.

     Qabbani also said that preparations will start in the first half of 2012
     to give licenses for companies seeking to drill for petroleum resources
     along Lebanona**s maritime coast.

     In July, Israel's cabinet approved a map of the Jewish State's proposed
     maritime borders with Lebanon, which is to be submitted to the UN.

     Following Israela**s approval of the map, Energy Minister Gebran Bassil
     countered that Lebanon will not give up its maritime rights.

     Lebanon and Israel differ on their interpretation of their maritime
     borders, which has become a contentious issue following the discovery of
     potential offshore petroleum resources.

     To read more:
     http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=322952#ixzz1b3gKKkB2
     Only 25% of a given NOW Lebanon article can be republished. For
     information on republishing rights from NOW Lebanon:
     http://www.nowlebanon.com/Sub.aspx?ID=125478

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4300 ex 4112

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4300 ex 4112

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-20 09:44:15</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-10 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/157158_re-more-re-g3-lebanon-cyprus-fm-to-go-to-cyprus-for-talks-on.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>157578</id>
    <title>[alpha] Occupy Wall Street (DHS analysis)
</title>
    <description>3</description>
    <date>2011-10-25 18:04:51</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/157578_-alpha-occupy-wall-street-dhs-analysis-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/13/13637_DHS IP Special.pdf</path><size>797704</size><md5></md5><sha1>cbe7c9e671329c00f0091f1c9e330de5ed455db9</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>159826</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored cyber
   warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing that, since you
   can conduct a cyber attack without associating with a hacker group and
   still deny / cover actions on behalf of the State. An individual attacking
   US computer assets from China, may be working by himself or on behalf of
   the Chinese government, but unless the US has other intel on the Chinese
   government's cyber warfare activities in order to corroborate there is
   little capability to distinguish.

   It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network operations do
   not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets from SIGINT would not
   directly help you track an individual responsible for hacking State run
   servers. In the past, I have turned to SIGINT organizations for
   collections on computer related material, but this was due to the US being
   behind in cyber warfare, and not knowing where to assign responsibility.
   However, this has changed dramatically in the last couple of years.

   Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As an extreme
   scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go to a Starbucks with
   free public wifi, and never attribute the online activity to something
   revealing (accessing personal email accounts, tweeting, entering personal
   information to the laptop, etc..), and begin hacking government email
   accounts then never use the laptop again. Unless LEA could get an accurate
   description of my appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible security
   cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

   Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to these
   enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied to specific
   computer-related activities because of the difficulty in identifying
   individuals.

   I think the most likely way for a "Anonymous cover" to be blown, would be
   the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a common participant in
   "Anonymous" activities, was working for a State? Anonymous has denounced
   state governments before, if that State agent organizes an attack amongst
   his IRC / Twitter buddies, what signs could a LEA look for to distinguish?

   On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a bit)

     1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything actually
     harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't, but i'm very
     doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first real case where they
     could do some minor damage--to individual people, not not to an
     organization or anything that would come as a serious or strategic
     threat. 

     2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is actually pretty
     good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as a cover, but that would be
     pretty easy to bungle, and could probably still be attributed if
     important enough to those agencies.  The recent attack on Sony actually
     brings this issue up- Whoever is calling themselves anonymous denies
     they did it.  And keep in mind how much they have claimed an publicized
     attacks in the past, even before they were carried out.  The attack on
     the Playstation Network was more sophisticated than anonymous' usual
     work (though potentially coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that
     distracted Sony's IT security).  But whoever did it, again, no real
     damage came of it.  Congress is holding hearings over data security, but
     this is no different than the OC groups stealing your credit card
     information.  LE will go after them, have some success, but the threat
     is not that large. 
     On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

       Link: themeData

       I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to have a
       broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no nothing, or
       almost nothing about what this group is and the threat it poses.
       Reviewing their list of attacks
       (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most of the
       cases, they are the "good" guys, sort of a Robin Hood of the internet
       . The interesting thing when it comes to their interactions with the
       cartels is the dubious role they play: at the same time they can be
       fighting crime by revealing cartel members/supporters, but they can
       also put lives in risk.

       However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by Anonymous.
       The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can conduct a cyber
       attack under "Anonymous" is worrisome.
       (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

       If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government websites,
       or if I am just a internet user, I would like to know more about these
       guys. Who they are? What are they interested in? How they operate? Who
       they have targeted so far? How can I defend myself from them? In what
       countries are they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use
       them to achieve any particular goal?

       On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

         nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else can
         build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they pose to
         innocent people caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing
         on journalists or taxi drivers they show little understanding of the
         situation.  This has long term implications in not just Mexico. 
         They don't consider the consequences of their actions and they act
         without understanding the environment.  It was the same when they
         released information on the Sony Playstation network to protest
         Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

         On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

           Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
           possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
           Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by Anonymous,
           threatens revealing personal information on cartels as well as
           states a member had been kidnapped. I could not find any sources
           outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being kidnapped.
           According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous
           Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting flyers in
           Veracruz as part of the Operation Paperstorm protest, although
           that is speculation.

           Link: themeData
           Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
           denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed
           out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
           Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked
           individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the
           most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
           the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing
           identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists
           who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los
           Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
           consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
           was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
           their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
           potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and
           hackers, presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels
           lashing out at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting
           on cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

           What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
           threat to Mexican cartels.
                o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
           media
                o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash
           out at cartels

           While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
           threat
                o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
           identifiable information on cartel members
                o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire
           on cartels
                o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
           communications, identifiable information on cartels members have
           to be considered in the realm of possibilities for
                       Anonymous
                       o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
           illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

           Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
           ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result,
           their understanding of cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous
           may act with confidence when sitting in front of a computer, but
           this may blind them to any possible retribution. They may not even
           know the impact of any online assault of cartels.
                o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
           will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
           individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
           drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
           halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not
           have a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
           Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &amp;
           Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
           consequences from this.
                o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
           are willing to go protect their operations.
                   o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                   o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
           community before, coercing computer science majors into working
           for them.
                   o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
           discovering hackers within Mexico.

            

           On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

             Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
             there are several issues to address and fix here.

             These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
             discussion:

                  o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine
             but we can't gloss over that fact
                  o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference
             between stealing bank records from government computers and
             overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                  o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
             information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
             kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
             talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
             politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
             going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
             killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
             operational details, because they acted as informants, because
             they exposed links with officials or because they somehow
             sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
             information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                  o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
             realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a
             measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity
             except for the technical ability by a very small number of its
             members to infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
             information. Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on
             a network that is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)?
             Where else could information be found? Government databases?
             Once we know what kind of information is accessible, we can also
             know more about the consequences of dissemination.
                  o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to
             trace back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of
             killings done by people who may not understand the difference
             between an anon hacker and a blogger.

             On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

               wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

               -------- Original Message --------

                Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                   Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                   From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
               Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                     To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

               you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need
               a lot more work

               You need to lay out:

               a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger
               section is unclear
               b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
               therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
               c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
               anything
               d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill
               anyone who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

               I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
               insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
               levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
               the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
               is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
               business online, in a protected fashion.

               Karen Hooper
               Latin America Analyst
               o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
               c: 512.750.7234
               STRATFOR
               www.stratfor.com
               On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

               On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

               Link: themeData

               Trigger

               Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
               Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?,
               lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
               denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
               released depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a
               screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent video release,
               Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels.
               Threats such as releasing identities of Mexican? American?
               taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who collude
               with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
               release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences.
               The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels
               and hackers, presents an unprecedented war front for the
               cartels. The vastly different operations of Anonymous and Los
               Zetas leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have
               little experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no
               experience with the cartels. I do not believe for a second
               that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                

               In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
               mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
               their demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be
               mentioned right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is
               threatening to hit back. Provide enough details so we
               understand who this guy is and why/how he was abducted. are
               not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing revealing
               information on cartel members and operations are true, cartels
               will likely respond with violence against individuals revealed
               as opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous members?.
               It also is likely that public disclosure of GOM officials who
               collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving
               the Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this
               means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
               effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against
               Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue
               their threats against any individual using online media WC....
               you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers
               here. against the cartels.

                

               The Battle Space

               Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
               realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
               of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
               geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
               exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
               are physical people tho live in the real world. They have
               names and addresses - although most of them are likely outside
               of MX.)  Anonymous' power base consists of their technical
               capabilities in hacking. Any information connected to the
               Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying
               the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's
               population could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of
               what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
               Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in
               revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't run
               operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money via
               e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on the web than
               the jihadists.)

               Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
               base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
               believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
               through the internet. This gives an opening for people
               disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
               dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience =
               troll. Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
               themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of serious IT
               capability. 

               The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has
               been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

               The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US
               and Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking
               to maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
               commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
               and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from
               insight. There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't
               have a similar capacity.  Their power base is built by large
               amounts of revenue and escalating brutal violence. Cartels
               like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing different types of
               threats. Cartels are always suffering at the hands of cartel
               on cartel violence. While battling each other, cartels still
               face arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to
               avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
               have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
               bloggers in order to cover details of their operations. ok...
               but that's kind of a red herrng for this discussion. You need
               to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't
               just assume they have no cyber presence.

                

               Anonymous' Weapons

               Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
               criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability
               to combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
               disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
               anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites
               in Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
               admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
               guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
               campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
               overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels view main
               stream media outlets and social media blogs as such a threat
               to their operations, that they have continued to target
               journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los
               Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on
               the body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
               denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive
               here, and it's not really addressing the subheading

               As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
               risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to
               suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing information they
               threaten to release. By releasing identities of individuals
               cooperating with Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life
               of those individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate
               sensitive information is limited by what is available via the
               Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
               should always be considered a possibility of an attack.
               However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the US
               governments computer networks, information available to
               Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy to acquire. 
               what are you trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

                

               Cartel's Defense

                           A counter response to the video? by the cartels
               has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a
               kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun
               addressing the threat posed by hackers so... how has there not
               been a counter response? also this undermines your statements
               above about how Anonymous is soley internet based, and
               underlines the vulnerabilities of associated members. How did
               they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that could very
               well give you some indication to the technical ability of the
               cartels . As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
               wide web , the cartels will face a number of challenges which
               rarely are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has
               whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You
               can assume (and we have good intel indicating that) they are
               working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening
               cartels, can operate in any region of the world. Personal
               information including locations is only available if a hacker
               chooses to divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy
               enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only work for
               Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
               online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or
               start employing hackers of their own under their payroll?
               Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                           Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
               Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
               help of computer science majors through personal threats has
               been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported
               where?.  Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence
               and drug trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of
               technical experts to help combat any threat by computer
               hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been
               demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable of
               identifying any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
               enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
               experience and resources than cartels, struggle to find
               hackers through investigations. A) How do you know they are
               not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm
               goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult to
               track down

                           In order to compete with an online foe, cartels
               will likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar
               with, brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
               operations within Mexico "still"? why would we assume they
               wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
               communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
               members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
               likely continue to be used to scare online media into
               submission i'm not really seeing the online
               media-international hacking group connection here.  The cruel
               manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer
               hackers have unlikely encountered before in their life.
               Whether the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence of
               Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels are able to
               seek out and capture members of the hacker group.. Or the
               Narcos could call the collective bluff and simply go on and
               shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 20:38:17</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/159826_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tristan.reed@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>160395</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of these
   in the US?
    What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
   I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
   whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
   because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
   revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of understanding
   of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is expendable to
   cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of coercion.

   Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
   cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of el
   chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication as a
   tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable intelligence,
   the government will use it against the cartels. That's a physical threat,
   if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify that Anonymous can
   not directly effect physical security. Any impact to the cartel in
   revealing information will be from actions of rival cartels or the GoM.
   They may release information on a given politician being linked to the
   cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the politician will feel an impact
   (Just because Anonymous says there is a link, doesn't make it true). It
   would be up to others to take action.

   Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online activity
   (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to conduct significant
   logistics and business online. We don't know how much, but we do know they
   will have some points of operational vulnerability I have heard of cartels
   doing business online, but don't have specific examples which could be
   used in assessing their vulnerability online.

   by "no consequences" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired, arrested
   or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I should say,
   there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out politicians as
   colluding.
   On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

     Karen Hooper
     Latin America Analyst
     o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
     c: 512.750.7234
     STRATFOR
     www.stratfor.com
     On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
     Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing possible
     cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat Anonymous can pose
     to cartels. The video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing
     personal information on cartels as well as states a member had been
     kidnapped. I could not find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of
     the individual being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites
     (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an
     individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the Operation
     Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

     Link: themeData
     Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
     denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed out at
     drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
     criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked individual
     addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the most recent
     video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels
     in Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers, police,
     politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels do they
     specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of these in the
     US?
      What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
     group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
     face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
     mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their
     demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The potential of
     conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents a
     unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out at online
     bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any
     headaches from hackers before. 

     What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
          o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat to
     Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the
     head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using
     publication as a tool to force government action. If you reveal
     actionable intelligence, the government will use it against the cartels.
     That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
          o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online media
          o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out at
     cartels

     While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a threat
          o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess identifiable
     information on cartel members
          o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
     cartels
          o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
     identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in the
     realm of possibilities for
                 Anonymous
                 o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
     illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are
     known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't
     know how much, but we do know they will have some points of operational
     vulnerability

     Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the ultra-violent
     world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result, their understanding of
     cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when
     sitting in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
     retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online assault of
     cartels.
          o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will
     cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are
     forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are often
     victims of extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the
     identity of these individuals will not have a significant impact on
     cartel                   operations. Politicans have been accused of
     working with cartels (Guerrero &amp; Veracruz' governor) before, however
     there has yet to be any consequences from this. by "no consequences"
     what exactly do you mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and
     that happens all the time.
          o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are
     willing to go protect their operations.
             o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
             o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science community
     before, coercing computer science majors into working for them.
             o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
     discovering hackers within Mexico.
     need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply publishing
     tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the same camp as
     the bloggers

      

     On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

       Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there
       are several issues to address and fix here.

       These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
       discussion:

            o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but we
       can't gloss over that fact
            o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference between
       stealing bank records from government computers and overloading
       www.loszetas.com main page.
            o     There's no thought out process of what sort of information
       could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is kept online and
       accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
       identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops, politicians and
       businessmen who need to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
       Think about why the bloggers and media were killed in previous
       instances. Was it because they revealed operational details, because
       they acted as informants, because they exposed links with officials or
       because they somehow sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what
       kind of information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
            o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
       realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of
       damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the
       technical ability by a very small number of its members to infiltrate
       certain networks and databases and steal information. Now what kind of
       information would a cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
       internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could information be found?
       Government databases? Once we know what kind of information is
       accessible, we can also know more about the consequences of
       dissemination.
            o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
       back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done by
       people who may not understand the difference between an anon hacker
       and a blogger.

       On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

         wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

         -------- Original Message --------

          Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
             Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
             From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
         Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
               To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

         you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a lot
         more work

         You need to lay out:

         a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section is
         unclear
         b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
         therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
         c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
         d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone who
         breaches their systems or exposes their connections

         I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
         insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels
         of sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of
         cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason to
         assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
         protected fashion.

         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
         c: 512.750.7234
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

         On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

         Link: themeData

         Trigger

         Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
         Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed out
         at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
         Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released depicting...?
         a person talking? a voice? words on a screen? exactly when?.  With
         the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
         the criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of
         Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
         journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker group
         demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
         consequences. The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal
         cartels and hackers, presents an unprecedented war front for the
         cartels. The vastly different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas
         leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have little
         experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no experience
         with the cartels. I do not believe for a second that the cartels
         have no experience with hackers.

          

         In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
         day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of
         releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up
         front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back.
         Provide enough details so we understand who this guy is and why/how
         he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing
         revealing information on cartel members and operations are true,
         cartels will likely respond with violence against individuals
         revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous
         members?. It also is likely that public disclosure of GOM officials
         who collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving the
         Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this means. You
         mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel
         will be able to retaliate against Anonymous remains unanswered .
         However, cartels will continue their threats against any individual
         using online media WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not
         talking about bloggers here. against the cartels.

          

         The Battle Space

         Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
         realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of
         the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical
         boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in
         cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They are physical people
         tho live in the real world. They have names and addresses - although
         most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power base
         consists of their technical capabilities in hacking. Any information
         connected to the Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers.
         (Identifying the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst of
         Mexico's population could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of
         what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
         Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in revenue,
         but it does not really matter if you don't run operations on the
         web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are also far
         less dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

         Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base
         consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe
         themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the
         internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
         and everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme
         goes, anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web
         of people who identify themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of
         serious IT capability. 

         The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been from
         targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

         The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
         Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
         maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
         commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money and
         issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight. There
         is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity.
         Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue and escalating
         brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing
         different types of threats. Cartels are always suffering at the
         hands of cartel on cartel violence. While battling each other,
         cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels
         wish to avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
         have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
         bloggers in order to cover details of their operations. ok... but
         that's kind of a red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus
         on the possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume
         they have no cyber presence.

          

         Anonymous' Weapons

         Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
         criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
         combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating
         sensitive information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel
         statements via social media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean
         so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
         cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance of a
         targeted information operations campaign by technically elite
         individuals can not be overlooked should not be underestimated.
         Cartels view main stream media outlets and social media blogs as
         such a threat to their operations, that they have continued to
         target journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los
         Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the
         body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce
         cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not
         really addressing the subheading

         As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks
         disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest Anonymous
         is capable of possessing information they threaten to release. By
         releasing identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
         cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those individuals.
         Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive information is limited
         by what is available via the Internet. Government computers
         connected to the Internet should always be considered a possibility
         of an attack. However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the
         US governments computer networks, information available to Mexico's
         intelligence collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you
         trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

          

         Cartel's Defense

                     A counter response to the video? by the cartels has yet
         to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped member by
         Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed
         by hackers so... how has there not been a counter response? also
         this undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is soley
         internet based, and underlines the vulnerabilities of associated
         members. How did they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that
         could very well give you some indication to the technical ability of
         the cartels . As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
         wide web , the cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely
         are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole
         agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume
         (and we have good intel indicating that) they are working on
         disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in
         any region of the world. Personal information including locations is
         only available if a hacker chooses to divulge it or if the subject
         of the attack is savvy enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only
         work for Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
         online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
         employing hackers of their own under their payroll? Stranger things
         have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                     Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
         Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help of
         computer science majors through personal threats has been reported
         in the past where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels
         operate in the world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they
         will likely need the assistance of technical experts to help combat
         any threat by computer hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside
         of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable
         of identifying any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
         enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
         experience and resources than cartels, struggle to find hackers
         through investigations. A) How do you know they are not in Mexico?
         (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not
         all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                     In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
         likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute
         force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within
         Mexico "still"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals
         with alleged connections to hacker communities will likely be
         targeted and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and
         public display of violence will likely continue to be used to scare
         online media into submission i'm not really seeing the online
         media-international hacking group connection here.  The cruel
         manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer hackers
         have unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
         cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to
         be seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of
         the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff and
         simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 18:19:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/160395_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tristan.reed@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>160928</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already The USG arrested 10
     Russian spies last year, are you willing to say foreign intel is not
     capable of conducting espionage undetected?

     2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
     responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating cyber
     intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case HUMINT is
     just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT capabilities does not
     indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers. NSA may have there own
     department for tracking hackers but it does not make it SIGINT. The
     question is if the attack is high priority enough.  Many people assume
     there is no attribution because there is no response, but I don't think
     that is accurate.  Many people say this, because no attribution is one
     reason for no response.

     3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new laptop and
     start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack involves much more than
     a recently bought laptop.  In the same way there is an attack cycle for
     a terrorist attack or crime, there is one for a cyber attack.  A very
     simple attack may be as hard to trace as a nearly-random mugging in the
     dark in a neighborhood with much more serious crime and no CCTV
     cameras.  A more complicated attack, however, involves pre-operational
     surveillance, developing exploits, developing programs and code, gaining
     access, exploiting that, and carrying out an attack.  Discovering
     exploits and writing code can be done entirely offline, out of sight of
     law enforcement or intel agencies. Pre-operational surveillance and
     gaining access (the point of the exploit you write offline) would fit in
     my example. The point is, if you don't link your computer to
     identifiable information, you remain anonymous.  And that takes time,
     giving more time for your exposure Exposure comes from network activity
     with the target, a lot of the pre-operational phase of an attack can
     occur without network activity. Look at everything that went into
     Stuxnet as a great example, that couldn't be done with one person with a
     new laptop. Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of
     necessary labor for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are
     discussing operations on the scale of causing physical damage to
     extremely sensitive equipment .  All of this activity provides activity
     and evidence which helps for attribution.  Of course it is always
     possible to develop an attack, just like any other operation, that even
     the best law enforcement and national intelligence agencies have trouble
     or cannot attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that it's very difficult
     for someone to successfully use Anonymous as a cover and have NSA, GHQ,
     MID, Aman, etc, be unable to attribute it.  How do you know if NSA or
     GHQ is effective in identifying hackers? They may not choose to cover it
     if it is small scale crime, however. 
     On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored cyber
       warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing that, since
       you can conduct a cyber attack without associating with a hacker group
       and still deny / cover actions on behalf of the State. An individual
       attacking US computer assets from China, may be working by himself or
       on behalf of the Chinese government, but unless the US has other intel
       on the Chinese government's cyber warfare activities in order to
       corroborate there is little capability to distinguish.

       It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
       operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets from
       SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual responsible for
       hacking State run servers. In the past, I have turned to SIGINT
       organizations for collections on computer related material, but this
       was due to the US being behind in cyber warfare, and not knowing where
       to assign responsibility. However, this has changed dramatically in
       the last couple of years.

       Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As an
       extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go to a
       Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the online
       activity to something revealing (accessing personal email accounts,
       tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop, etc..), and
       begin hacking government email accounts then never use the laptop
       again. Unless LEA could get an accurate description of my appearance
       from Starbuck's patrons or possible security cameras, I can not think
       of way to identify me.

       Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to these
       enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied to specific
       computer-related activities because of the difficulty in identifying
       individuals.

       I think the most likely way for a "Anonymous cover" to be blown, would
       be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a common
       participant in "Anonymous" activities, was working for a State?
       Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that State agent
       organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter buddies, what signs
       could a LEA look for to distinguish?

       On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a bit)

         1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything actually
         harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't, but i'm very
         doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first real case where
         they could do some minor damage--to individual people, not not to an
         organization or anything that would come as a serious or strategic
         threat. 

         2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is actually
         pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as a cover, but
         that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could probably still be
         attributed if important enough to those agencies.  The recent attack
         on Sony actually brings this issue up- Whoever is calling themselves
         anonymous denies they did it.  And keep in mind how much they have
         claimed an publicized attacks in the past, even before they were
         carried out.  The attack on the Playstation Network was more
         sophisticated than anonymous' usual work (though potentially
         coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that distracted Sony's IT
         security).  But whoever did it, again, no real damage came of it. 
         Congress is holding hearings over data security, but this is no
         different than the OC groups stealing your credit card information. 
         LE will go after them, have some success, but the threat is not that
         large. 
         On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

           Link: themeData

           I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to have a
           broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no nothing, or
           almost nothing about what this group is and the threat it poses.
           Reviewing their list of attacks
           (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most of
           the cases, they are the "good" guys, sort of a Robin Hood of the
           internet . The interesting thing when it comes to their
           interactions with the cartels is the dubious role they play: at
           the same time they can be fighting crime by revealing cartel
           members/supporters, but they can also put lives in risk.

           However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
           Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can
           conduct a cyber attack under "Anonymous" is worrisome.
           (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

           If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
           websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to know
           more about these guys. Who they are? What are they interested in?
           How they operate? Who they have targeted so far? How can I defend
           myself from them? In what countries are they active? Should I
           worry about them at all? Can I use them to achieve any particular
           goal?

           On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

             nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else
             can build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they
             pose to innocent people caught up in the terror that is Mexico. 
             By focusing on journalists or taxi drivers they show little
             understanding of the situation.  This has long term implications
             in not just Mexico.  They don't consider the consequences of
             their actions and they act without understanding the
             environment.  It was the same when they released information on
             the Sony Playstation network to protest Sony.  They hurt
             innocent people to prove a point. 

             On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

               Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
               possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
               Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by
               Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on cartels
               as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
               find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the
               individual being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites
               (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it
               may be an individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the
               Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

               Link: themeData
               Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
               distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government
               websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
               statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a
               video depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug
               cartels on October 10? With the most recent video release,
               Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels in
               Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers,
               police, politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal
               cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow
               kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. In the
               Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
               day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands
               of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The potential of
               conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
               presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels
               lashing out at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any
               reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers
               before. 

               What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                    o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
               threat to Mexican cartels.
                    o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit
               online media
                    o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to
               lash out at cartels

               While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose
               a threat
                    o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
               identifiable information on cartel members
                    o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could
               acquire on cartels
                    o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
               communications, identifiable information on cartels members
               have to be considered in the realm of possibilities for
                           Anonymous
                           o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to
               reveal illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

               Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
               ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
               result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
               limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting in
               front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
               retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online
               assault of cartels.
                    o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
               journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some
               of these individuals are forced to collude with cartels.    
                         Taxi drivers are often victims of extortion or
               coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the identity of these
               individuals will not have a significant impact on cartel    
                             operations. Politicans have been accused of
               working with cartels (Guerrero &amp; Veracruz' governor) before,
               however there has yet to be any consequences from this.
                    o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent
               cartels are willing to go protect their operations.
                       o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                       o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
               community before, coercing computer science majors into
               working for them.
                       o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
               discovering hackers within Mexico.

                

               On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                 Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea
                 but there are several issues to address and fix here.

                 These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
                 discussion:

                      o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's
                 fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                      o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a
                 difference between stealing bank records from government
                 computers and overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                      o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
                 information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of
                 info is kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You
                 seem to be talking about identities, whose? If anything it's
                 dirty cops, politicians and businessmen who need to worry
                 about what anon is going to be saying. Think about why the
                 bloggers and media were killed in previous instances. Was it
                 because they revealed operational details, because they
                 acted as informants, because they exposed links with
                 officials or because they somehow sullied the cartel's
                 reputation? In short, what kind of information is damaging
                 to the cartels themselves?
                      o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon
                 can realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes
                 a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence
                 capacity except for the technical ability by a very small
                 number of its members to infiltrate certain networks and
                 databases and steal information. Now what kind of
                 information would a cartel keep on a network that is
                 connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else
                 could information be found? Government databases? Once we
                 know what kind of information is accessible, we can also
                 know more about the consequences of dissemination.
                      o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to
                 trace back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of
                 killings done by people who may not understand the
                 difference between an anon hacker and a blogger.

                 On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                   wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                   -------- Original Message --------

                    Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                       Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                       From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
                   Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                         To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

                   you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to
                   need a lot more work

                   You need to lay out:

                   a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger
                   section is unclear
                   b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is,
                   and therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
                   c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
                   anything
                   d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill
                   anyone who breaches their systems or exposes their
                   connections

                   I also just want to point out that we have reasonable
                   reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some
                   significant levels of sophistication in their online
                   presence, to include the use of cyber currencies and
                   significant IT capacity. There is no reason to assume that
                   Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
                   protected fashion.

                   Karen Hooper
                   Latin America Analyst
                   o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                   c: 512.750.7234
                   STRATFOR
                   www.stratfor.com
                   On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                   On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                   Link: themeData

                   Trigger

                   Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
                   Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?,
                   lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
                   statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including
                   a video released depicting...? a person talking? a voice?
                   words on a screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent
                   video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                   criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of
                   Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
                   journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker
                   group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member
                   otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
                   between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
                   unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly
                   different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a
                   conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have little
                   experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no
                   experience with the cartels. I do not believe for a second
                   that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                    

                   In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                   mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                   reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped member
                   this should be mentioned right up front. Cartels have a
                   member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back. Provide
                   enough details so we understand who this guy is and
                   why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims
                   of possessing revealing information on cartel members and
                   operations are true, cartels will likely respond with
                   violence against individuals revealed as opposing cartel
                   members huh? you mean Anonymous members?. It also is
                   likely that public disclosure of GOM officials who collude
                   with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving the
                   Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this
                   means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
                   effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against
                   Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will
                   continue their threats against any individual using online
                   media WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking
                   about bloggers here. against the cartels.

                    

                   The Battle Space

                   Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two
                   separate realities from each other. Anonymous operates
                   solely in sphere of the computer networks. Anonymous does
                   not experience geographical boundaries. All personalities
                   within Anonymous, exist solely in cyber space.  (That is
                   not entirely true. They are physical people tho live in
                   the real world. They have names and addresses - although
                   most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power
                   base consists of their technical capabilities in hacking.
                   Any information connected to the Internet is vulnerable to
                   exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of individual
                   cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population could
                   be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
                   has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or
                   a big company with a website that brings in revenue, but
                   it does not really matter if you don't run operations on
                   the web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They
                   are also far less dependent on the web than the
                   jihadists.)

                   Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's
                   power base consists of the perceived anonymity that its
                   members believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by
                   operating through the internet. This gives an opening for
                   people disgruntled by anything and everything to practice
                   general dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity +
                   audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web of
                   people who identify themselves as "anonymous" have any
                   sort of serious IT capability. 

                   The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has
                   been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

                   The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in
                   US and Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always
                   looking to maximize profits and expand. But they are
                   bricks and mortar commerce. Yes..... but they use the
                   internet to launder money and issue commands. We know that
                   Sinaloa does that from insight. There is no reason to
                   assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity. 
                   Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue and
                   escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
                   experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels
                   are always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel
                   violence. While battling each other, cartels still face
                   arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to
                   avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money,
                   cartels have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists
                   and online bloggers in order to cover details of their
                   operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this
                   discussion. You need to focus on the possible
                   vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
                   have no cyber presence.

                    

                   Anonymous' Weapons

                   Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions
                   against criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous'
                   only ability to combat cartels lay in information
                   operations, mainly disseminating sensitive information on
                   cartels and propagating anti-cartel statements via social
                   media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean so far and
                   that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
                   cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance of
                   a targeted information operations campaign by technically
                   elite individuals can not be overlooked should not be
                   underestimated. Cartels view main stream media outlets and
                   social media blogs as such a threat to their operations,
                   that they have continued to target journalists and
                   bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was
                   placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the
                   body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
                   denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive
                   here, and it's not really addressing the subheading

                   As stated earlier, any information connected to the
                   internet risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample
                   reason to suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing
                   information they threaten to release. By releasing
                   identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
                   cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
                   individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
                   information is limited by what is available via the
                   Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
                   should always be considered a possibility of an attack.
                   However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the US
                   governments computer networks, information available to
                   Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy to
                   acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This isn't
                   clear at all

                    

                   Cartel's Defense

                               A counter response to the video? by the
                   cartels has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous'
                   claims of a kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los
                   Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by hackers
                   so... how has there not been a counter response? also this
                   undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is
                   soley internet based, and underlines the vulnerabilities
                   of associated members. How did they find teh Anonymous
                   member? The answer to that could very well give you some
                   indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
                   Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web
                   , the cartels will face a number of challenges which
                   rarely are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG
                   has whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in
                   cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good intel
                   indicating that) they are working on disrupting the
                   cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in any
                   region of the world. Personal information including
                   locations is only available if a hacker chooses to divulge
                   it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
                   figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous.
                   Cartels are only capable of dealing with their online
                   enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
                   employing hackers of their own under their payroll?
                   Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                               Cartels have been known to coerce the services
                   of Mexican citizens with a technical background.
                   Recruiting the help of computer science majors through
                   personal threats has been reported in the past where? What
                   cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels operate in the
                   world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they will
                   likely need the assistance of technical experts to help
                   combat any threat by computer hackers.  While identifying
                   bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is
                   unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
                   operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies
                   such as the FBi, with far more technical experience and
                   resources than cartels, struggle to find hackers through
                   investigations. A) How do you know they are not in Mexico?
                   (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume
                   that not all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                               In order to compete with an online foe,
                   cartels will likely continue counter tactics they are most
                   familiar with, brute force. Cartels are still capable of
                   their HUMINT operations within Mexico "still"? why would
                   we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged
                   connections to hacker communities will likely be targeted
                   and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and
                   public display of violence will likely continue to be used
                   to scare online media into submission i'm not really
                   seeing the online media-international hacking group
                   connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
                   inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
                   encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
                   cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will
                   remain to be seen until cartels are able to seek out and
                   capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could
                   call the collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off
                   any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-25 00:07:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/160928_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tristan.reed@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>161338</id>
    <title>Re: [latam] G3/S3* - PARAGUAY/BRAZIL - Govt passes measure creating
 50 km security zone along border with Brazil, no foreigners can own land
 there and military will review land titles;
 Govt could grant special permission in some cases and not apply thi</title>
    <description>   One big problem I see with enforcing this is the land-owning angle more so
   than the nationality angle.  If we know that there are second generation
   Brasiguayos born in Paraguay or nationalized Brazilians, then the
   Paraguayan Govt knows it as well.  A direct attack on illegals won't
   necessarily solve any problems because some of these people are legit
   Paraguayans. This also opens the door for Brazil to voice an opinion about
   the treatment of its citizens.  On the other hand, Brazil cannot tell
   Paragauy how to handle its land reform issue.

   Also, the law does provide a process for foreigners to keep their land
   provided they show proof of the necessary documents etc.  If Paraguay
   really didn't want foreigners, I dont see why they would include this as a
   possiblity.  Lastly, the Paraguayan Govt has also run some campaigns in
   the coutry side in the last 3-4 years to help normalize the immigration
   status of Brasiguayos in small towns which would benefit workers.  This
   may not have gotten them all but efforts have been made.

   I see the real problem as land titles.  Indert has done a crappy job with
   records - lack of organization, lack of enforcement, lack of money and
   tons of corruption.  For some it's unclear who even own what.  I think
   Paraguay is trying to better idea of who owns what where legitimately and
   once they know that they can proceed with a plan. Right now there's just a
   lot of people making a lot of noise and the Govt has little control over
   the situation.  I think moves like this help the Govt take back some of
   that control.

   And worth a note is Lugo's approach trying not to make a big deal out of
   this.  He's said it's just enforcing a law that's been around for a while
   and that it's not about taking/giving rights away but regulating and
   normalizing things.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Renato Whitaker" &lt;renato.whitaker@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "LatAm AOR" &lt;latam@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, October 27, 2011 2:17:34 PM
   Subject: Re: [latam] G3/S3* - PARAGUAY/BRAZIL - Govt passes measure
   creating 50 km security zone along border with Brazil, no foreigners can
   own land there and military will review land titles; Govt could grant
   special permission in some cases and not apply this law

   I can see this as being largely benign to land-holding Brasiguayos; many
   are naturalized Paraguayan citizens or at least have naturalized children
   they can pass the deed on to. This could be tricky for the Brasiguayo
   workers, though. The law doesn't specifically mention illegal laborers but
   if the army now has the right to search and ascertain the legality of a
   land plot this could couple with any sort of illegal immigrant law in
   place in Paraguay. Do we know of such laws?

   On 10/27/11 2:00 PM, Allison Fedirka wrote:

     Just to clarify in Paraguay ere is a border security bill since 2005 and
     Lugo just made a decree so that the Govt can regulate the law that
     already exists.
     http://www.abc.com.py/nota/lugo-anuncio-decreto-reglamentario-para-la-ley-de-seguridad-fronteriza/
     http://espanol.upi.com/Politica/2011/10/26/Lugo-anuncia-vigencia-de-decreto-sobre-seguridad-fronteriza/UPI-13181319624254/
     As for Brazil, so far I've not seen any Govt comments.  In OS the story
     seems to have been picked up by a paper in Parana
     http://www.parana-online.com.br/colunistas/320/88799/

     GOOGLE
     Tension along the border

     The president of Paraguay, Fernando Lugo, said on Wednesday the signing
     of the decree regulating the so-called "Law of the Border Range," which
     establishes a security measure, restrictions on ownership by foreigners
     of land located within a radius of 50 km of the boundaries of the
     country.

     It is a normal measure, widely adopted around the world, based on the
     principles of sovereignty and the risk that a large foreign population,
     located on the borders of the country, can lead to the creation of
     enclaves or to alter the boundaries set .

     In the case of Paraguay, two factors add to the powder keg:
     disorganization (historical or corruption) of a State which, until
     today, even implemented a national registry of land and owners, and the
     fact that much of the Brazilian colony is installed, just within the
     border strip.

     In press statements issued yesterday morning (26), in Asuncion, Lugo
     played down any impact. "This law does not take and not give rights.
     Let's check the land status, but who is the rightful owner should not be
     afraid," he said.

     The problem, however, is precisely the concept. What has to be a
     "beneficial owner"? Remember, at this point that where properties were
     sold by the government to more than one owner, who therefore have
     scriptures and authentic documents, are common and affect even entire
     municipalities in Paraguay.

     The judiciary, slow and without the need for clarity, not just slow, as
     it often fails to deliver decisions on time. Concrete way, only the
     uncertainty of farmers' brasiguaios "that over the years, built their
     lives and property in the neighboring country.

     As an immediate exit, those who have not made it, there is the option to
     become naturalized Paraguayan. In the world of hypothetical solutions,
     if the law is for foreigners, this would be sufficient antidote. In the
     case of Paraguay, however, there is no simple solution or magic. Legal
     uncertainty in the field must, once and for all be eradicated from the
     land without evil (the name by which the Guarani were related to their
     paradise).

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Karen Hooper" &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "LatAm AOR" &lt;latam@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Thursday, October 27, 2011 1:41:37 PM
     Subject: Re: [latam] G3/S3* - PARAGUAY/BRAZIL - Govt passes measure
     creating 50 km security zone along border with Brazil, no foreigners can
     own land there and military will review land titles; Govt could grant
     special permission in some cases and not apply this law

     Has Brazil reacted to this?

     Karen Hooper
     Latin America Analyst
     o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
     c: 512.750.7234
     STRATFOR
     www.stratfor.com
     On 10/27/11 10:05 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

       Is this the Braziguayos area?

       On 10/27/11 9:42 AM, Allison Fedirka wrote:

         will be very interesting to see just how many people in the border
         area have legal Paraguayan documents or are foreigners (or both) and
         also to what extent the Govt grants exceptions.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         GOOGLE
         Military inquire land titles in the border areas
         October 27, 2011 00:00 -
         http://www.abc.com.py/nota/militares-indagaran-titulos-de-tierras-en-las-zonas-de-frontera/
          
         The Executive Branch yesterday regulated the law that set a border
         security zone throughout the Republic. The rule prohibits foreigners
         and legal entities composed largely of foreigners, natives of
         neighboring countries of Paraguay, to own land in a strip of 50
         kilometers.

         Part of the decree that was released yesterday by the Executive that
         the law regulates border security.
         The decree gives the military the authority to verify the conditions
         of rural real estate domain, whether domestic or foreign owned.

         The case relates to the 2532 Act in force since 2005, but was never
         regulated by the power manager. Yesterday was released the 7525 Act
         which, among other things, determines what the public institutions
         responsible and the mechanism for implementing it.

         Keep in mind that the law provides for the strip of 50 kilometers
         for foreigners and some specific legal persons mentioned above. It
         also clarifies that the same can not be owners, condominium owners
         or beneficial owners of rural properties.

         By way of exception, the same law states that land may only have the
         border who have special permission by executive decree, founded on
         reasons of public interest, as those activities that generate
         employment of labor in the border security zone.

         The Act also grants authority to the Ministry of Defense to perform
         at the National Registration of the steps necessary to establish the
         zone of security.

         New feature

         The decree states that the purpose of the inventory of rural
         properties in the border region, is granted authority to the
         Ministry of Defence to identify the conditions of ownership,
         condominium or usufruct of rural land, whether they are owned by
         nationals or foreigners who are residing or exploding through
         leasing, dedicated to mining activities, industrial or trust, within
         the said reference zone.

         Foreigners who want to keep land in the time domain and meet the
         requirements established by law, mentioned above, must submit an
         application to the Ministry of National Defense.

         There is an article of the decree that clearly has to fulfill the
         mission entrusted to the Ministry of National Defense, this will
         take place in close cooperation with the Armed Forces, "military
         personnel being fully authorized to perform the function indicated
         in coordination with the National Land Registry and the National
         Institute of Rural Development and Land (INDERT). "

         The regulation also states that the commander of the Armed Forces
         must have the commanders of units located within the band perform
         regular safety checks and report to the Interagency Commission
         Border Security Zone (CIZOSEF), regarding compliance with the
         provisions of the Act.

         A?Blow to the property?

         The decree regulates the law that set a border security zone
         provides that managers can control the inventory or property require
         documents to people who hold land in the area of a**a**50
         kilometers. The owner or occupier of property must file papers
         within a period not exceeding 72 hours, otherwise the Office shall
         initiate appropriate action. They must file title, maps and payslips
         georeferenced property tax. Some benchmarks of the field believe
         that compliance requirements are impossible in the time allotted and
         fear is a step in the government's attack on the farmers.
         Militares indagarA!n tAtulos de tierras en las zonas de frontera
         27 de Octubre de 2011 00:00 -
         http://www.abc.com.py/nota/militares-indagaran-titulos-de-tierras-en-las-zonas-de-frontera/
          
         El Poder Ejecutivo reglamentA^3 ayer la ley que fija una zona de
         seguridad fronteriza en toda la RepA-oblica. La norma prohAbe a los
         extranjeros y a las personas jurAdicas integradas mayoritariamente
         por extranjeros, oriundos de paAses limAtrofes del Paraguay, a ser
         propietarios de tierras en una franja de 50 kilA^3metros.

         Parte del decreto que fue dado a conocer ayer por el Ejecutivo que
         reglamenta la ley de seguridad fronteriza.
         El decreto reglamentario otorga a los militares la potestad de
         verificar las condiciones de dominio de los inmuebles rurales, sean
         estos  propiedad de nacionales o extranjeros.

         El caso tiene relaciA^3n con la Ley 2532 que estA! vigente desde el
          2005, pero que nunca fue reglamentada por el poder administrador.
         Ayer fue dado a conocer el Decreto 7525 que, entre otras cosas,
         determina cuA!les serA!n las instituciones pA-oblicas encargadas y
         el mecanismo de aplicaciA^3n de la misma.

         Se debe tener en cuenta que la ley dispone la franja de 50
         kilA^3metros para extranjeros y algunas personas jurAdicas
         determinadas, citadas mA!s arriba. Asimismo, aclara que los mismos
         no pueden ser propietarios, condA^3minos o usufructuarios de
         inmuebles rurales.

         A manera de excepciA^3n, la misma ley determina que solo podrA!n
         tener tierras en esa franja fronteriza aquellos que cuenten con una
         autorizaciA^3n especial por decreto del Poder Ejecutivo, fundada en
         razones de interA(c)s pA-oblico, como aquellas actividades que
         generen ocupaciA^3n de mano de obra en la zona de seguridad
         fronteriza.

         La citada ley tambiA(c)n otorga potestad al Ministerio de Defensa
         para la realizaciA^3n ante el Servicio Nacional de Catastro de las
         diligencias necesarias para el establecimiento de dicha zona de
         seguridad.

         Nueva funciA^3n

         El decreto reglamentario indica que a los efectos de la
         realizaciA^3n del inventario de inmuebles rurales en la franja
         fronteriza, se otorga potestad al Ministerio de Defensa para
         individualizar las condiciones de dominio, condominio o usufructo de
         las tierras rurales, sean estas propiedad de connacionales o de
         extranjeros que se encuentren residiendo o explotando por medio del
         arrendamiento, dedicadas a actividades extractivas, industriales o
         fiduciarias, dentro de la mencionada zona de referencia.

         Aquellos extranjeros que quieran mantener tierras en la franja de
         dominio y cumplan con las exigencias establecidas en la ley, citadas
         anteriormente, deben presentar la solicitud correspondiente al
         Ministerio de Defensa Nacional.

         Existe un artAculo del decreto que dispone de manera clara que para
         el cumplimiento de esta misiA^3n encomendada al Ministerio de
         Defensa Nacional, esta lo llevarA! a cabo en estrecha cooperaciA^3n
         con las Fuerzas Armadas, a**quedando el personal militar plenamente
         autorizado para ejercer la funciA^3n indicada, en coordinaciA^3n con
         el Servicio Nacional de Catastro y el Instituto Nacional de
         Desarrollo Rural y de la Tierra (Indert)a**.

         La reglamentaciA^3n tambiA(c)n seA+-ala que el comandante de las
         Fuerzas Militares debe disponer que los comandantes de unidades
         ubicadas dentro de la franja de seguridad realicen periA^3dicas
          verificaciones e informen a la ComisiA^3n Interinstitucional Zona
         de Seguridad Fronteriza (CIZOSEF), respecto al cumplimiento de las
         disposiciones de la mencionada ley.

         A?Golpe a la propiedad?

         El decreto que reglamenta la ley que fija una franja de seguridad
         fronteriza dispone que los encargados del inventario o control
         pueden exigir los documentos de propiedad a las personas que
         detentan tierras en la zona de 50 kilA^3metros. El propietario u
         ocupante del inmueble debe presentar los papeles en un plazo no
         superior de 72 horas, caso contrario la ProcuradurAa iniciarA! las
         acciones pertinentes. Los mismos deben presentar tAtulos de
         propiedad, planos georreferenciados y boletas de pago del impuesto
         inmobiliario. Algunos referentes del campo creen que las exigencias
         son de cumplimiento imposible en el plazo fijado y temen que sea un
         paso mA!s del gobierno en el ataque a los productores rurales.

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 ADP
 Stratfor

 --
 Renato Whitaker
 LATAM Analyst
</description>
    <date>2011-10-27 22:06:05</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-13 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/161338_re-latam-g3-s3-paraguay-brazil-govt-passes-measure-creating.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>allison.fedirka@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>latam@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:latam@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>161548</id>
    <title>Re: FORCOMMENT- Cartels and Human Smuggling/Trafficking
</title>
    <description>   On 10/27/11 6:35 PM, Rodger Baker wrote:

     I don't get a sense of the size, scope or change in human smuggling
     operations. Are there more? Less? the quantity of human smuggling has
     dropped because of hte economic situation inside the US.  Demand is
     less.  the point of the piece is not about the changes cartels have
     wrought on smuggling, but that they needed new revenue streams and human
     smuggling/trafficking was an obvious choice because of their similar
     networks neededWhat percent do the cartels control now, versus prior to
     the 1990s?it is impossible to know for sure, but from both evidence in
     OS and sources in the LE community and sources who work directly with
     illegal migrants, it is a large percentage.  we know the cartels control
     the geography and routes Is there a notable change that is triggering us
     to write about this, or are we just talking about one of the many
     diversified income streams of cartels?we are talking about one of the
     many dirersified revenue streams, but an important one that impacts
     thousands of people, both Mexican and American.  It is a topic our
     readers are interested in - yes cartels are taking over human
     trafficking, no not every migrant is carrying a load of pot What sort of
     migrants are we talking about? Mexican laborers? Immigrants from further
     afield? Chinese and Iraqis? Are they all treated the same?I explained
     that in the piece, and no, they aren't treated the same.  if you pay
     50,000 USD you get the VIP treatment.  Howe does an Iraqi even hook up
     with a mexican drug cartel? they hook up with smuggling operators in
     their country.  A chinese will find a snakehead who will then pass them
     to a Mexican cartelWhat is the way humans are smuggled?the next piece is
     focused on the how How big a percent of cartel operations does smuggling
     now make up, and how does that compare to the past? For a long time it
     has been common knowledge that several US gangs shifted from drugs to
     human trafficking because it was more profitable and there were many
     less cops on the trafficking beat than on the narco squads. Is this
     similar for the Mexican gangs?i don't know of any gangs who have
     foresaken drugs to move to human beings, but if they became less greedy
     than sure.  the problem is that drugs are where the real money is at,
     which i commented on in the piece as continuing to be the primary
     product of transport Which gangs are involved, which arent, or is it an
     across the board sort of thing? Sometimes it sounds like it is just
     getting people across the border and letting them wander the desert,
     other times something more significant. Can you clarify, or give more
     granularity into the various types of human trafficking, and if it is
     the same organizations involved in all, or are there different ones
     specializing in different levels of immigration assistance. in general,
     I don't get a sense of depth from this, but a few scattered reports of
     information glued together. It leaves me with way too many questions
     than it even comes close to answering, and doesn't seem to have the
     depth of some of the msm reports on human smuggling I have already
     heard. yes, the second report, and it was split based on OPS needs, will
     answer these questions in more granular detail especially focused on the
     "how to"
     On Oct 27, 2011, at 4:26 PM, Colby Martin wrote:

        the conclusion could be made stronger i think but wanted to get it
       out before everyone checked out
        

       The cartel war currently underway in Mexico has forced Mexican cartels
       to look for alternative sources of capital outside of the trafficking
       of narcotics.  Now more than ever, cartels need money to pay for
       weapons, enforcers, and bribes necessary for fighting the drug war. 
       Because of the increased operational costs incurred by the cartels
       fighting each other and fighting state security forces, alternative
       revenue streams of all types - including human smuggling and
       trafficking, piracy, extortion, kidnapping, oil theft, money
       laundering and arms smuggling have become valuable business operations
       for the cartels.  Narcotics' trafficking remains the cartel's primary
       source of income because the profit margins are much higher for drugs
       than other types of illicit cargo, however, Mexican cartels are no
       longer just drug trafficking organizations, but are now international
       criminal organizations.  

       Two enterprises the Mexican cartels have easily absorbed into their
       corporate structure are human smuggling and trafficking operations. 
       Human smuggling (the transportation of people from one place to
       another for an agreed upon fee) and trafficking (the exploitation of
       people through forced prostitution, slavery, or bonded servitude) has
       become much more lucrative in the past 20 because of the increased
       difficulty and danger involved in moving migrants over the Mexican
       border and into the United States.

       Cartel involvement in human smuggling is not a new phenomenon.  In the
       1990's cartels were content with collecting taxes paid by alien
       smuggling organizations for use of cartel smuggling routes through the
       borderlands into the United States.  However, as profits increased and
       alternative revenue streams were needed, the cartels realized they had
       no reason or desire to share profits with traditional alien smuggling
       organizations.  In fact, cartels now typically kidnap or kill any
       smugglers who do not have approval to operate in their territory. 

       The infrastructure used for narcotics smuggling is also used for human
       smuggling, with very little if any modifications made to routes, safe
       houses (called drop houses), and modes of transportation.  These
       existing networks have allowed cartels to seamlessly incorporate human
       smuggling into their normal smuggling operations. 

       Cartels are also able to use human smuggling operations to protect
       loads of narcotics because migrants will be used as a diversion for
       drug shipments by moving the people through one location at the same
       time the drugs are moved through a different entry point.  This draws
       border patrol resources away from the drug smuggling operations and
       makes it much easier to get drug load into the United States.   

       Illegal migrants are also sometimes forced to become drug mules and
       carry drugs into the United States, although it is not as common as
       sometimes reported in main stream media.  Sometimes the migrant could
       ask to be a mule in order to pay off some of the debt incurred for
       being brought across the border, or are forced to carry it for unknown
       reasons.  However, using scared, inexperienced migrants who do not
       know there way through the desert or mountains is not a good way to
       insure safe transport of the most drug load.  It also isn't necessary
       for the cartels to rely heavily on illegal migrants to mule drugs
       because paying a professional is inexpensive (wasn't it like, 300 US a
       load or less?) and they are better trained to deal with anything that
       goes wrong. 

       Starting in 1993-94 with Operation Hold-the-Line in El Paso and
       Operation Gatekeeper in San Diego anti-smuggling operations and
       increased numbers of border patrol agents, from about 8000 in 1998 to
       around 17,000 in 2010(victoria do you have 2011 numbers?), have forced
       migrants away from urban crossing points into increasingly desolate
       areas. 

       This dynamic has caused profits for alien smuggling operations to
       skyrocket over the past 10 years because the intensified interdiction
       efforts have increased the value of the services coyotes provide.  A
       decade ago, most illegal migrants did not use a coyote, but now find
       it almost impossible to cross over without one. A STRATFOR source that
       works on the Arizona border confirmed that only the migrants who have
       crossed into the United States illegally multiple times or have
       fraudulent documents do not use a coyote.  

       Prices have gone from $500 a head paid to "mom and pop" outfits who
       typically smuggled migrants into the United States for seasonal work. 
       Many times, the coyote was just a local who lived near the border and
       knew how to get across safely.  The illegal migrants would go to the
       United States to work, and then return home after they had earned
       enough money or the growing season was over.  Now, typical prices
       range from $2000 for Mexicans, $10,000 for Central Americans or
       Cubans, to $40,000 or more for a Chinese national or special interest
       aliens from countries like Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, and Pakistan. (it
       is actually more, victoria?)

       Mexican cartels also use their control over human smuggling
       infrastructure to increase profits in other areas of their criminal
       enterprise. As the economic crisis in the US has caused a decrease in
       the numbers of migrants crossing the border, cartels have increasingly
       turned to human trafficking, declared by the Department of Homeland
       Security as a form of modern day slavery.  Sex trafficking and slavery
       operations are a source of income for the cartels long after the
       migrants have been brought into the United States, whereas smuggling a
       person only nets one payment for services rendered.

       Kidnapping, especially of Central Americans, from anywhere along the
       migrant routes into the United States is also extremely lucrative.
       Mexican train yards are prime locations because the migrant must stay
       close to the train tracks in order to catch a ride north. 

       It is common for cartels to kidnap migrants, called "chickens," from
       other smugglers drop-houses inside the United States and then hold
       them for ransom, sometimes thousands of dollars above the fee agreed
       upon between the smugglers and alien.  The family members or sponsors
       will be forced to pay using the same money wires they use for paying
       the coyotes.  If payment is not made the illegal migrants are commonly
       forced to work off the ransom, or they are killed.

       The 2010 National Mexican Human Rights Commission claimed Los Zetas
       are the most active criminal organization involved in human smuggling
       and trafficking in Mexico, although other cartels are also involved. 
       In 2008 the Sinaloa cartel were linked to trafficking minors for
       prostitution with the president of Peruvians against child
       pornography, Dimitri Senmache Artola, stating that narco-trafficking
       organizations were combining drug trafficking and sex trafficking
       operations because they were able to utilize the same routes and modes
       of operation, including corruption of authorities.  A February, 2010
       Foreign Policy Research Institute report on the impact of Arturo
       Beltran Leyva's death listed the ability to smuggle humans, promote
       prostitution, and carry out kidnappings as part of ABL's assets.

       The diversification of capital streams into Mexican Cartels makes them
       much stronger institutions because they are less dependent on one
       product for their survival. If the drug war in Mexico subsided, the
       remaining cartels would be extremely diverse, strong organizations
       with multiple sources of income, territorial control of ports of
       entry, and a massive infrastructure for controlling trade flows into
       the United States. 

       Human smuggling and trafficking operations are perfect for cartels
       because the demand for cheap labor will never completely go away.  As
       long as the United States represents a better life for the thousands
       of migrants each year, cartels will be willing to take them, for a
       price. 

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-28 02:22:27</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 00:00:00</releasedate>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>161628</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else can build
   off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they pose to innocent
   people caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing on journalists
   or taxi drivers they show little understanding of the situation.  This has
   long term implications in not just Mexico.  They don't consider the
   consequences of their actions and they act without understanding the
   environment.  It was the same when they released information on the Sony
   Playstation network to protest Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a
   point. 

   On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing possible
     cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat Anonymous can pose
     to cartels. The video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing
     personal information on cartels as well as states a member had been
     kidnapped. I could not find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of
     the individual being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites
     (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an
     individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the Operation
     Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

     Link: themeData
     Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
     denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed out at
     drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
     criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked individual
     addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the most recent
     video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels
     in Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers, police,
     politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The
     hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member
     otherwise face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming
     November 5th was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
     reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met.
     The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
     presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out at
     online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing
     with any headaches from hackers before. 

     What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
          o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat to
     Mexican cartels.
          o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online media
          o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out at
     cartels

     While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a threat
          o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess identifiable
     information on cartel members
          o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
     cartels
          o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
     identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in the
     realm of possibilities for
                 Anonymous
                 o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
     illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

     Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the ultra-violent
     world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result, their understanding of
     cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when
     sitting in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
     retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online assault of
     cartels.
          o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will
     cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are
     forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are often
     victims of extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the
     identity of these individuals will not have a significant impact on
     cartel                   operations. Politicans have been accused of
     working with cartels (Guerrero &amp; Veracruz' governor) before, however
     there has yet to be any consequences from this.
          o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are
     willing to go protect their operations.
             o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
             o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science community
     before, coercing computer science majors into working for them.
             o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
     discovering hackers within Mexico.

      

     On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

       Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there
       are several issues to address and fix here.

       These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
       discussion:

            o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but we
       can't gloss over that fact
            o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference between
       stealing bank records from government computers and overloading
       www.loszetas.com main page.
            o     There's no thought out process of what sort of information
       could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is kept online and
       accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
       identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops, politicians and
       businessmen who need to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
       Think about why the bloggers and media were killed in previous
       instances. Was it because they revealed operational details, because
       they acted as informants, because they exposed links with officials or
       because they somehow sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what
       kind of information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
            o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
       realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of
       damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the
       technical ability by a very small number of its members to infiltrate
       certain networks and databases and steal information. Now what kind of
       information would a cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
       internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could information be found?
       Government databases? Once we know what kind of information is
       accessible, we can also know more about the consequences of
       dissemination.
            o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
       back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done by
       people who may not understand the difference between an anon hacker
       and a blogger.

       On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

         wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

         -------- Original Message --------

          Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
             Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
             From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
         Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
               To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

         you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a lot
         more work

         You need to lay out:

         a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section is
         unclear
         b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
         therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
         c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
         d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone who
         breaches their systems or exposes their connections

         I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
         insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels
         of sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of
         cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason to
         assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
         protected fashion.

         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
         c: 512.750.7234
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

         On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

         Link: themeData

         Trigger

         Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
         Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed out
         at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
         Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released depicting...?
         a person talking? a voice? words on a screen? exactly when?.  With
         the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
         the criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of
         Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
         journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker group
         demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
         consequences. The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal
         cartels and hackers, presents an unprecedented war front for the
         cartels. The vastly different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas
         leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have little
         experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no experience
         with the cartels. I do not believe for a second that the cartels
         have no experience with hackers.

          

         In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
         day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of
         releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up
         front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back.
         Provide enough details so we understand who this guy is and why/how
         he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing
         revealing information on cartel members and operations are true,
         cartels will likely respond with violence against individuals
         revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous
         members?. It also is likely that public disclosure of GOM officials
         who collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving the
         Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this means. You
         mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel
         will be able to retaliate against Anonymous remains unanswered .
         However, cartels will continue their threats against any individual
         using online media WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not
         talking about bloggers here. against the cartels.

          

         The Battle Space

         Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
         realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of
         the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical
         boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in
         cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They are physical people
         tho live in the real world. They have names and addresses - although
         most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power base
         consists of their technical capabilities in hacking. Any information
         connected to the Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers.
         (Identifying the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst of
         Mexico's population could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of
         what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
         Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in revenue,
         but it does not really matter if you don't run operations on the
         web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are also far
         less dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

         Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base
         consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe
         themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the
         internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
         and everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme
         goes, anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web
         of people who identify themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of
         serious IT capability. 

         The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been from
         targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

         The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
         Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
         maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
         commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money and
         issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight. There
         is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity.
         Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue and escalating
         brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing
         different types of threats. Cartels are always suffering at the
         hands of cartel on cartel violence. While battling each other,
         cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels
         wish to avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
         have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
         bloggers in order to cover details of their operations. ok... but
         that's kind of a red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus
         on the possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume
         they have no cyber presence.

          

         Anonymous' Weapons

         Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
         criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
         combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating
         sensitive information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel
         statements via social media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean
         so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
         cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance of a
         targeted information operations campaign by technically elite
         individuals can not be overlooked should not be underestimated.
         Cartels view main stream media outlets and social media blogs as
         such a threat to their operations, that they have continued to
         target journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los
         Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the
         body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce
         cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not
         really addressing the subheading

         As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks
         disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest Anonymous
         is capable of possessing information they threaten to release. By
         releasing identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
         cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those individuals.
         Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive information is limited
         by what is available via the Internet. Government computers
         connected to the Internet should always be considered a possibility
         of an attack. However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the
         US governments computer networks, information available to Mexico's
         intelligence collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you
         trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

          

         Cartel's Defense

                     A counter response to the video? by the cartels has yet
         to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped member by
         Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed
         by hackers so... how has there not been a counter response? also
         this undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is soley
         internet based, and underlines the vulnerabilities of associated
         members. How did they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that
         could very well give you some indication to the technical ability of
         the cartels . As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
         wide web , the cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely
         are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole
         agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume
         (and we have good intel indicating that) they are working on
         disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in
         any region of the world. Personal information including locations is
         only available if a hacker chooses to divulge it or if the subject
         of the attack is savvy enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only
         work for Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
         online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
         employing hackers of their own under their payroll? Stranger things
         have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                     Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
         Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help of
         computer science majors through personal threats has been reported
         in the past where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels
         operate in the world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they
         will likely need the assistance of technical experts to help combat
         any threat by computer hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside
         of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable
         of identifying any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
         enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
         experience and resources than cartels, struggle to find hackers
         through investigations. A) How do you know they are not in Mexico?
         (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not
         all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                     In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
         likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute
         force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within
         Mexico "still"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals
         with alleged connections to hacker communities will likely be
         targeted and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and
         public display of violence will likely continue to be used to scare
         online media into submission i'm not really seeing the online
         media-international hacking group connection here.  The cruel
         manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer hackers
         have unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
         cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to
         be seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of
         the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff and
         simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 17:22:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>165169</id>
    <title>Re: FORCOMMENT- Cartels and Human Smuggling/Trafficking
</title>
    <description>   I understand.  I did not produce this analysis  to produce a piece.  It
   was in order to come to an internal consensus within the company regarding
   human smuggling, and cartel involvement in the process.  I originally did
   this research last summer, some of which came from the articles you
   posted, and found it in an old email.  I then put it out as a discussion
   on CT because we had talked about this subject internally.  I tried to
   split the information in a way that reflected the desires of Op Center for
   publication, but I totally agree we should work together to make this
   stronger, and decide if we have anything to add to the conversation, and
   if so, what.  I am excited by this process, and believe it not only makes
   me stronger as an analyst, but it improves our team understanding as
   well.   

   On 10/27/11 9:06 PM, Rodger Baker wrote:

     One of my responsibilities is the quality of analysis. I do understand
     how pieces are published. I also understand the interaction between the
     operations Center and the Analysts and the heads of Tactical and
     Strategic Intelligence. My concern with this piece has nothing to do
     with whether Operations Center requested a piece. It has to do with the
     intellectual and analytical content. A 10 minute search through the
     literature has brought several hundred additional articles to the ones I
     append below, but overall, what they show is that the points we are
     making are not new, and in some ways we are presenting even less detail
     than is already in the MSM. In particular, the key points we raise as to
     our uniqueness (the change in US border operations being a trigger, that
     cartels are more engaged in this now than in the past, that it
     supplements their revenues) are and have been the key elements of
     previous media reports (and topics of at least two publicly available
     congressional hearings). We do not need to be unique for the sake of
     being unique, but we do need to be sure that we are bringing something
     insightful to the table, and that we are following the intelligence
     processes, which includes being sure we are exhaustive in our search
     through the open source, as well as our work with insight. This is even
     more important when we are building out framing pieces, ones that are
     not necessary quick reactions to breaking events, but rather are
     thuroughly-researched studies that frame our analysis. Yes, we pull from
     the Open Source, and it forms a heavy portion of our information. So we
     need to be aware what value we are adding. In this case, the key points
     are not even hidden in minor regional papers or in quiet comments by
     some un-listened-to law enforcement official, but are the central topics
     of CNN, LA Times, Investors Business Daily, etc. In other words, it is
     very common knowledge. That does not mean it is not an important issue.
     But to add value, we need to go beyond what is already been written on,
     and with more detail (like how much money it involves, etc). 

     Drug cartels raise the stakes on human smuggling

     Exploitation of illegal immigrants has become worse, officials say, and
     the failure of U.S. agencies to work together has hindered efforts to
     stop the organizations.

     LA Times March 23, 2009|Josh Meyer

     WASHINGTON - Mexican drug cartels and their vast network of associates
     have branched out from their traditional business of narcotics
     trafficking and are now playing a central role in the
     multibillion-dollar-a-year business of illegal immigrant smuggling, U.S.
     law enforcement officials and other experts say.

     The business of smuggling humans across the Mexican border has always
     been brisk, with many thousands coming across every year.

     But smugglers affiliated with the drug cartels have taken the enterprise
     to a new level -- and made it more violent -- by commandeering much of
     the operation from independent coyotes, according to these officials and
     recent congressional testimonies.

     U.S. efforts to stop the cartels have been stymied by a shortage of
     funds and the failure of federal law enforcement agencies to collaborate
     effectively with one another, their local and state counterparts and the
     Mexican government, officials say.

     U.S. authorities have long focused their efforts on the cartels'
     trafficking of cocaine, marijuana, heroin and methamphetamines, which
     has left a trail of violence and corruption.

     Many of those officials now say that the toll from smuggling illegal
     immigrants is often far worse.

     The cartels often further exploit the illegal immigrants by forcing them
     into economic bondage or prostitution, U.S. officials say. In recent
     years, illegal immigrants have been forced to pay even more exorbitant
     fees for being smuggled into the U.S. by the cartel's well-coordinated
     networks of transportation, communications, logistics and financial
     operatives, according to officials.

     Many more illegal immigrants are raped, killed or physically and
     emotionally scarred along the way, authorities say. Organized smuggling
     groups are stealing entire safe houses from rivals and trucks full of
     "chickens" -- their term for their human cargo -- to resell them or
     exploit them further, according to these officials and documents.

     Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Garden Grove) said greed and opportunity had
     prompted the cartels to move into illegal immigrant smuggling.

     "Drugs are only sold once," Sanchez, the chairwoman of the House
     Homeland Security border subcommittee, said in an interview. "But people
     can be sold over and over. And they use these people over and over until
     they are too broken to be used anymore."

     The cartels began moving into human smuggling in the late 1990s,
     initially by taxing the coyotes as they led bands of a few dozen people
     across cartel-controlled turf near the border.

     After U.S. officials stepped up border enforcement after the Sept. 11
     terrorist attacks, the price of passage increased and the cartels got
     more directly involved, using the routes they have long used for
     smuggling drugs north and cash and weapons south, authorities said.

     Sometimes they loaded up their human cargo with backpacks full of
     marijuana. In many cases, they smuggled illegal immigrants between the
     two marijuana-growing seasons, authorities said.

     Kumar Kibble, deputy director of the Department of Homeland Security's
     Immigration and Customs Enforcement's office of operations, said the
     cartels made money by taxing coyotes and engaging in the business
     themselves.

     "Diversification has served them well," Kibble said.

     Unlike the drug-trafficking problem, the cartels' involvement in human
     smuggling has received scant attention in Washington.

     That is the case even as the Obama administration and Congress
     increasingly focus their attention on Mexico, fearing that its
     government is losing ground in a battle against the cartels that has
     resulted in the deaths of more than 7,000 people since the beginning of
     2008.

     At one of many congressional hearings on the subject last week, Sen.
     Richard J. Durbin (D-Ill.) unveiled a chart that he said described the
     cartels' profit centers: drugs, weapons and money laundering.

     "I would add one thing, senator," said Arizona Atty. Gen. Terry Goddard,
     who then described to Durbin his concerns about the cartels' movement
     into illegal immigrant smuggling. "It is really a four-part trade, and
     it has caused crime throughout the United States."

     Arizona has become the gateway not only for drugs, but also illegal
     immigrants. Fights over the valuable commodity have triggered a spate of
     shootings, kidnappings and killings, Goddard and one of his chief
     deputies said in interviews.

     In Arizona, the cartels grossed an estimated $2 billion last year on
     smuggling humans, Goddard said.

     Senior officials from various federal law enforcement agencies confirmed
     that they were extremely concerned about the cartels' human smuggling
     network.

     In recent years, the U.S. government has taken significant steps to go
     after illegal immigrant smugglers on a global scale, setting up task
     forces, launching public awareness campaigns and creating a Human
     Smuggling and Trafficking Center to fuse intelligence from various
     agencies.

      

      

      

     Drug War's Illegal Fuel
     Investor's Business Daily May 20, 2010 Thursday
     NATIONAL EDITION

     SECTION: Issues &amp; Insights; Pg. A10
     Diplomacy: President Felipe Calderon, on his first state visit
     Wednesday, diverted talk from Mexico's narco war to worries about
     Arizona's immigration law. Time for a reality check: Illegal migration
     stokes Mexico's war.

     Mexico's president, an otherwise admirable leader, has a real blind spot
     about the role illegal immigration plays in the awful war his country is
     now fighting on drug cartels.

     Speaking at a White House garden press conference with President Obama,
     Calderon made fine pledges of cooperation with the U.S. to fight illicit
     trafficking: "We agreed upon the urgency to reinforce the actions to
     stop the flow of drugs, weapons and cash."

     But placed with his other statements criticizing Arizona's immigration
     law, he left the matter of halting illegal immigration from his country
     completely out of the picture. That might be good politics in Mexico,
     but it's an awful strategy, given that illegal immigration is a major
     part of drug cartel operations today.

     Up until the mid-1990 s, people-smuggling by "coyotes" was a small
     operation run by freelancers who came and went.

     That changed in the past decade with increased U.S. border control
     measures, which put them out of business.

     U.S. Border Patrol spokesman Special Agent Joe Romero told the San
     Francisco Chronicle in 2008 that the drug traffickers and people
     smugglers have now completely merged.

     "The drug cartels have determined this is big business," he said from El
     Paso. Drug cartels "control these corridors. . . . It used to be, "Get
     across the fence and run.' Now it's a lot more organized."

     The cartels -- which had vast networks of smugglers, document forgers,
     safe house operators, drivers, and officials on the take -- had
     resources to evade border checks and to rake in money.

     Texas' border crackdown in recent years sealed a key entry point, so
     Arizona has become the new gateway.

     Mexico has now shipped between 6 million and 12 million illegal
     immigrants to the U.S., with most paying the cartels to enter.

     So every illegal immigrant, so romanticized by political leaders, is
     also someone who's paid $2,500 or so to cartels.

     With millions making it to the U.S., it amounts to $6 billion in
     earnings for the smugglers -- compared with Mexico's drug trade, which
     brings in $10 billion to $20 billion a year.

     So it's not just Hollywood cocaine snorters who are fueling these
     cartels. It's also cash from Mexican illegals, who are often forced to
     double as drug smugglers or work in slave conditions for the cartels to
     pay off their debts.

     Lawmen say that the cartel takeover of human smuggling operations also
     is responsible for the incredible violence and ruthless abandonment of
     immigrants in the desert, which thus far has been blamed on the U.S.

     The reality is, it's human smugglers -- the same people who shoot up
     Mexican restaurants, kill U.S. consular employees, attack Mexican
     military bases, kidnap, massacre schoolchildren and "disappear"
     political leaders, as happened to a prominent member of Calderon's own
     political party in just the past week.

     Fact is, drug cartels are financed by cash, and much of that cash is
     coming from a nonstop stream of illegal immigrants -- who, incredibly
     enough, are being encouraged to immigrate to the U.S. by the Mexican
     government itself as a convenient means of relieving themselves of the
     pressure of creating jobs and investing in education.

     Unfortunately, this is now being ignored in the wartime strategy to
     defeat Mexico's violent cartels.

     It makes zero sense. Until cartels start losing the billions in cash
     flow they get from illegal immigrant smuggling operations, it won't
     matter how many drug operations are won.

     The Obama administration talks a good game about a comprehensive
     immigration strategy but what he and his Mexican counterpart must really
     talk about is a comprehensive victory strategy.

     Ending illegal immigration is as much a part of it as beating the
     cartels. In fact, the immigration issue isn't separate from the Mexican
     war. It's the same war.

      

      

     Human trafficking second only to drugs in Mexico
     CNN.com August 26, 2010 Thursday 8:14 AM EST

     BYLINE: By Arthur Brice, CNN
     Mario Santos likely never made it to the United States.

     The 18-year-old set out 10 years ago from his native El Salvador in
     search of opportunity and a better way of life. But he had to travel
     north through Mexico first.

     A short while after leaving, he called his parents to tell them he had
     been beaten and robbed in Mexico, left penniless and without shoes or
     clothes. It was the last they heard from him.

     While it's not certain that Santos is dead, he probably suffered the
     same fate as 72 migrants from Central and South America whose bodies
     were found this week in a ranch in northern Mexico, just 90 miles from
     the U.S. border. Officials are investigating whether they were the
     victims of human traffickers or drug cartels that prey on migrants.

     It's a fate that officials say befalls thousands of Central and South
     Americans every year.

     "It's brutal," says Peter Hakim, president emeritus of the
     Inter-American Dialogue, a non-partisan Washington policy institute.
     "This is very big business. It's very brutal."

     It is indeed big business. Human trafficking is one of the most
     lucrative forms of crime worldwide after drug and arms trafficking, the
     United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime said in April.

     In Mexico, it is a $15 billion- to $20 billion-a-year endeavor, second
     only to drug trafficking, said Samuel Logan, founding director of
     Southern Pulse, an online information network focused on Latin America.

     "And that may be a conservative estimate," Logan said.

     That money, which used to go mostly to smugglers, now also flows into
     the hands of drug cartel members.

     The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a bipartisan,
     nonprofit policy institute based in Washington, noted in an August
     report that human smuggling and other illegal activities are playing an
     increasingly important role as narcotraffickers diversify their
     activities.

     "The drug cartels have not confined themselves to selling narcotics,"
     the report said. "They engage in kidnapping for ransom, extortion, human
     smuggling and other crimes to augment their incomes."

     Some cartels have come to rely more in recent years on human smuggling.

     "For the Zetas, it's been one of their main revenue streams for years,"
     Logan said about the vicious cartel, which operates mostly in
     northeastern Mexico.

     Cartel involvement has increased the risk for migrants crossing through
     Mexico to get to the United States, said Mexico's National Commission
     for Human Rights. An investigation by the commission showed that 9,758
     migrants were abducted from September 2008 to February 2009, or about
     1,600 per month.

     No one knows exactly how many people try to make the passage every year.

     The human rights organization Amnesty International estimates it as tens
     of thousands. More than 90 percent of them are Central Americans, mostly
     from El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua, Amnesty
     International said in a report this year. And the vast majority of these
     migrants, the rights group said, are headed for the United States.

     "Their journey is one of the most dangerous in the world," Amnesty
     International said.

     "Every year, thousands of migrants are kidnapped, threatened or
     assaulted by members of criminal gangs," the rights group said.
     "Extortion and sexual violence are widespread and many migrants go
     missing or are killed. Few of these abuses are reported and in most
     cases those responsible are never held to account."

     An indication of how many people attempt the trip can be found in
     statistics compiled by Mexico's National Migration Service, which tracks
     how many migrants are detained and returned to their countries of origin
     each year. Experts note that these are only the migrants who get caught,
     and that many -- even most -- are not apprehended.

     Nonetheless, the Mexican agency said it detained 64,061 migrants last
     year, 60,383 of whom were from El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and
     Nicaragua. About 20 percent of them were females and about 8 percent
     were under the age of 18. Some were under 10.

     Officials in El Salvador, where the teen-aged Santos started his trip,
     estimate that about 10,000 Central American migrants suffered some kind
     of abuse in 2009.

     "The vast majority has been committed by these organized crime gangs,
     such as the Zetas for example, in the route along the Gulf (of Mexico),
     which is where they operate most frequently," said Juan Jose Garcia, the
     Salvadoran vice minister for citizens living abroad.

     "But we also have found events in which (Mexican) authorities have
     participated," Garcia said.

     The Salvadoran Foreign Ministry estimates up to 150 citizens leave each
     day for Mexico. Some analysts put that figure at closer to 300.

     For most Central Americans, that journey begins with a human smuggler,
     commonly called a "pollero." In the United States, the smugglers are
     better known as "coyotes."

     For a set fee, usually ranging from $850 to $5,000 a head, a smuggler
     will deliver a migrant to the border of the United States or even offer
     passage across.

     Problems often arise when smugglers and migrants approach the border and
     organized crime organizations get involved.

     "This is where things get complicated," said Logan, who is writing a
     book on the Zetas and is the author of "This is for the Mara
     Salvatrucha: Inside the MS-13 America's Most Violent Gang."

     The drug-trafficking organizations charge the "polleros" a price per
     person for the right to cross over their territory, a practice called
     "derecho de piso," or right of passage.

     Or they will abduct the migrants and hold them for ransom from their
     relatives and friends in the United States or family back home.

     Often times, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime said, migrants
     who are abducted are subjected to sexual or labor exploitation.

     If the migrants are being held for ransom and the money is not paid in
     time, the situation can get ugly.

     "Sometimes the Mexican organized crime group says, 'The hell with it.
     We're not going to deal with these people,' and they kill them all,"
     Logan said.

     That's what may have happened, Logan said, to the 72 people whose bodies
     were found Tuesday in a ranch building in Tamaulipas state, about 14
     miles (22 kilometers) from the town of San Fernando, near the border
     with Texas.

     Or the migrants may have refused to work for the cartel, which is one
     possibility that has been mentioned in news accounts.

     A bloody turf war between the Zetas and the Gulf cartels also may have
     complicated matters because the smugglers may not have known who to pay
     or may have paid one group and angered the other.

     "In Tamaulipas, it's very hard for a pollero to know who is who," Logan
     said. "The Zetas and Gulf cartels were once allied and now have split."

     At any rate, the involvement of the drug cartels has changed the
     dynamics of human smuggling in Mexico, said Andrew Selee, director of
     the Woodrow Wilson Center's Mexico Institute.

     Selee remembers living in northern Mexico a few years back and knowing
     that a father-son duo who lived on his block were "polleros."

     "That's gone," Selee said, noting that the costs of having to pay
     cartels for the right to cross their territory has driven out small-time
     smugglers.

     "They now have to be big enough to handle those costs," Selee said.

     Selee and the Inter-American Dialogue's Hakim point out that increased
     border security and interdiction by the United States also has led to
     cartel involvement because of the level of sophistication and complexity
     now often involved in getting someone across the border. The cartels
     already have the routes and other facilities in place they use for
     smuggling drugs.

     "We're no longer talking about a simple process that involves one or two
     individuals," Selee said. "This has become much more dangerous."

     As always, profit is the motive.

     "The smuggling became profitable the more the United States began to
     build barriers to immigration," Hakim said.

     On Thursday, Amnesty International called on the Mexican government to
     take swift action about the slayings of the 72 people in Tamaulipas.

     "Amnesty International issued a report in April highlighting the failure
     of Mexican federal and state authorities to implement effective measures
     to prevent and punish thousands of kidnappings, killings and rape of
     irregular migrants at the hands of criminal gangs, who often operate
     with the complicity or acquiescence of public officials," the rights
     group said in a release.

     "This case once again demonstrates the extreme dangers faced by migrants
     and the apparent inability of both federal and state authorities to
     reduce the attacks that migrants face. The response of the authorities
     to this case will be a test."

     It's too late for the families of the victims.

     For the parents of Mario Santos, the Salvadoran who disappeared 10 years
     ago, much of the anguish lies in not knowing what happened.

     "If only he would call me on the telephone and I would know he is alive,
     even if I never saw him again, that would satisfy me," said his father,
     Daniel Santos.

     For thousands of Central American families, the phone does not ring.

      

      

      

      

     Interview with U.S. Marshal David Gonzalez
     SHOW: FOX ON THE RECORD WITH GRETA VAN SUSTEREN 10:30 PM EST

     Fox News Network June 15, 2010 Tuesday

     BYLINE: Greta Van Susteren
     GUESTS: David Gonzalez
     VAN SUSTEREN: We're live in Phoenix, Arizona. And it is the no secret
     some of the most deadliest violence in the world has jumped across the
     Arizona border in Mexico, and it is a constant fight to stop that
     violence from bleeding into the United States.

     United States Marshal David Gonzalez faces the violence everyday with
     his team. Good evening sir.

     DAVID GONZALEZ, U.S. MARSHAL, ARIZONA DISTRICT: Welcome to Phoenix.

     VAN SUSTEREN: It is beautiful, a little toasty, but beautiful. These are
     weapons used by the drug cartels, right?

     GONZALEZ: These are standard weapons used by cartels, ATF and other
     state and local agencies on a daily basis, purchased primarily in the
     United States, which is a huge problem, because, as you know, we have
     drugs and money going south and people and dope coming north.

     And dealing with those two issues creates a lot of violence and issues
     throughout the country.

     VAN SUSTEREN: It is extraordinary the amount of firepower. We've been to
     Mexico. What we've heard is the firepower of the drug cartel exceeds
     what we give our ATF for instance. We don't have necessarily the same
     firepower we use back at them.

     GONZALEZ: There's no question. U.S. law enforcement, state and local
     U.S. law enforcement, and Mexican law enforcement, you cannot compete
     with firepower like this, no way.

     VAN SUSTEREN: What do you need? If President Obama were watching tonight
     and the head of the marshal service in Washington, what can help you?

     GONZALEZ: It is a very complicated process. You have intertwined drug
     smuggling and human smuggling. And when you have that much money
     involved it is very difficult to take head-on.

     But I think if there was something we could do as a country to help stem
     the tide of a lot of these issues, I think we need to really concentrate
     on where the primary issues are, in this case, guns going south and
     money going south, identify who the main players are in these organizes
     and take them out, similar to what happened in Colombia.

     And that is why we are dealing with the situations we are dealing with
     this Arizona, because the Mexican cartels took over for the Colombian
     cartels who were split up and the Mexican cartels have become so strong
     and so wealthy that to deal with them we need to break up those cartels
     so we can manage them.

     So I think that is our primary responsibility and an issue we need to
     deal with.

     VAN SUSTEREN: Since you are on the border this gets pushed in this
     state's face every single day, the risk, the scare.

     The thing I thought was extraordinary, the one that catches my attention
     is the former rangers, the Mexican army that have gone rogue. They are
     special forces. And they are so well trained and so violent, and they
     went rogue. There's almost no way to stop them.

     GONZALEZ: There are seven main cartels. The Zeta's started off as
     enforcers and then became a cartel. But just 180 miles from where we
     stand now, that area is controlled by a federation of cartels. And that
     is called "the federation." It's a group of two or three different
     cartels that have formed to control the distribution routes.

     And this is what all the violence is about in Mexico now bleeding over
     into the U.S. It is control of lucrative drug and human smuggling
     distribution routes. That is the bottom line.

     VAN SUSTEREN: We have the drug smuggling, gun smuggling, and violence.
     But the human trafficking is terrible too.

     GONZALEZ: Phoenix is number two in kidnapping in the United States.
     Number one is Mexico City. Arizona, the Phoenix area here has five
     million people and Mexico city about 25 million, and we're number two in
     the world we it comes to kidnapping, and that's all connected to human
     smuggling which is connected to the money. That seems to be the root.

     VAN SUSTEREN: It seems as though, until recently, that people have not
     listened to Arizona, that people have not listened as to how big a
     problem it is here. Is that your sense, that fallen a little off the
     radar screen for other issues?

     GONZALEZ: It has been frustrating being a law enforcement officer here.
     I think that's why 1070 was passed. I think there was a lot of
     frustration that more needed to be done on our border.

     We have 365 miles of border with Mexico, and it is the busiest sector in
     the country. And 48 percent of all illegal immigrants that come into the
     U.S. come through the Tucson sector. About 48 percent also of all drugs
     that come into the U.S., like marijuana, come in through the Tucson
     sector. And they are all controlled by the Mexican cartels.

     VAN SUSTEREN: I don't mean to be gruesome, but the article that sticks
     with me they are trying to intimidate people in a club, they beheaded
     five people and rolled the heads across the dance floor, or where they
     opened up the chest and take the hearts out. The violence, it's like a
     horror movie.

     GONZALEZ: Exactly. And the 12 policemen killed yesterday --

     VAN SUSTEREN: I forgot the 12 policemen yesterday.

     GONZALEZ: Greta, that's to send a message to the locals, to the
     government that they are here to stay, and they are not intimidated. And
     we're here to the very end. You are not going to scare us off. So we are
     in for a long battle.

     VAN SUSTEREN: How many deputies you have?

     GONZALEZ: In Arizona about 220 deputies. Working fugitives, sex
     offenders work closely with the Mexican government bringing fugitives
     out of Mexico, which is a huge problem because a lot of fugitives wanted
     in the U.S. flee to Mexico we work closely with the Mexican government
     to get our fugitives out of there.

     VAN SUSTEREN: I know your deputies are tough, but I hate to them put at
     risk.

     GONZALEZ: When you to deal with this, what can you do?

     VAN SUSTEREN: Thank you, marshal.

     GONZALEZ: Thank you.

      

      

      

     CQ Congressional Testimony

     May 11, 2011 Wednesday

     U.S. MEXICO BORDER LAW ENFORCEMENT;
     COMMITTEE: HOUSE HOMELAND SECURITY;
     SUBCOMMITTEE: OVERSIGHT, INVESTIGATIONS, AND MANAGEMENT
     TESTIMONY-BY: STEVEN C. MCCRAW, DIRECTOR

     AFFILIATION: TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY

     Statement of Steven C. McCraw Director Texas Department of Public Safety

     Committee on House Homeland Security Subcommittee on Oversight,
     Investigations, and Management

     May 11, 2011

     Chairman McCaul and Committee members, on behalf of the men and women of
     the Texas Department of Public Safety, I would like to thank you for the
     opportunity to appear before you today to discuss a vitally important
     public safety and national security issue, our unsecure border with
     Mexico.

     Mexican Drug Trafficking Organizations have exploited weaknesses in our
     border defenses for many years in an effort to exert their dominance
     over the highly lucrative U.S. drug and human smuggling market and they
     have evolved into powerful and vicious organized crime cartels that now
     threaten the domestic security of Mexico. They battle each other and the
     Government of Mexico to maintain and/or increase their share of the
     multi-billions of dollars derived from the smuggling of drugs and humans
     into the U.S., and bulk cash, high value merchandise, stolen vehicles
     and weapons into Mexico.

     They use military and terrorist tactics and weaponry killing over 36,000
     people since 2006 and there is no limit to their depravity. They employ
     horrific tactics to intimidate their adversaries and the public such as
     decapitations, acid baths, skinning people alive, torture and Improvised
     Explosive Devices and they have expanded their criminal operations to
     profit from kidnappings, robberies, human trafficking, extortions and
     theft. During the past several months we have seen reports of mass
     graves and self-censorship of the Mexican press. The Mexican Cartels
     work closely with Texas based and transnational gangs to support their
     criminal operations on both sides of the border. We continually see
     multi-ton drug loads seized throughout Texas.

     The Mexican Cartels use a mature decision-making process that
     incorporates reconnaissance networks, techniques and capabilities
     normally associated with military organizations such as communication
     intercepts, interrogations, trend analysis, secure communications,
     coordinated military-style tactical operations, GPS, thermal imagery and
     military armaments including fully automatic weapons, rocket propelled
     grenades and hand grenades. They are very adept at corrupting government
     officials and entire institutions to support their criminal operations
     undermining the ability of Mexico to address this threat. Recent reports
     reveal that Mexico has only a 2% criminal conviction rate.

     The 2011 GAO Report confirmed what we already knew in Texas, there are
     insufficient federal resources to secure the Texas/Mexico border with as
     much as 70% to 90% of the 1,250 miles of border in Texas is only being
     monitored as opposed to managed or operationally controlled. It is
     important to note that the men and women of the Customs and Border
     Protection Service are dedicated professionals and do an exceptional job
     with the limited resources they possess. However, there has been a
     substantial underinvestment in border security for several decades to
     the benefit of the Mexican Cartels and the detriment of public safety
     and homeland security.

     Texas is a law and order state and there is a high expectation by our
     citizens that Sheriffs, Chiefs of Police and the Texas Department of
     Public Safety will work closely together with our federal partners to
     proactively protect Texas from all criminal and terrorist threats
     regardless of their origin. When Texas landowners are overwhelmed by
     drug and human smugglers trespassing and vandalizing their property,
     they expect a timely law enforcement response and do not want to hear
     from Sheriffs and the State of Texas that it is not their job. The State
     of Texas has already invested over $250 million to enhance border
     security efforts recognizing long ago its importance to the safety of
     all Texans.

     The State adopted a unified command structure to centralize local, state
     and federal border related intelligence across 53 Texas border Counties
     and over a hundred local, state and federal agencies to support unified
     patrol operations on the ground, in the air and on the water. Combining
     efforts is a force multiplier and provides a more accurate understanding
     of the current and future border-related threats.

     It has also been necessary to increase the state's tactical capability
     on the border. The Cartels have become increasing confrontational using
     blocking and chase cars, caltrops to disable patrol cars during high
     speed pursuits and Cartel boat teams that confront U.S. law enforcement
     on the U.S. side of the Rio Grande River while they retrieve the drugs
     from vehicles that have been driven into the Rio Grande River to avoid
     capture. In ONE instance, Cartel members threw a Molotov cocktail at
     Texas Rangers in an attempt to avoid capture and on at least two
     occasions, Border Patrol Agents were fired upon from Mexico while
     patrolling the Rio Grande River. The State of Texas established Texas
     Ranger Recon Teams augmented with DPS SWAT resources, Texas Military
     Forces personnel, DPS Aviation and Trooper Strike Teams who work closely
     with local law enforcement and the Border Patrol to confront the Cartels
     in high threat areas.

     The Committee requested that I provide an assessment of the impact of
     Cartel-related crime in the Texas border region. To accurately assess
     the overall criminal impact of an unsecure border on Texas requires the
     syntheses of several different variables within and outside the border
     region. For example, if we were to use only Index Crimes as reported
     through the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) system, it would not
     include essential variables such as extortions, kidnappings, smuggling
     incidents, corruption, smuggling-related trespassing and vandalism,
     arrests of aliens from countries with strong terrorist networks,
     seizures of Cartel drugs, weapons and bulk cash on the 10 major
     smuggling corridors throughout Texas, Cartel command and control
     networks operating in Texas, increases in Cartel-related gang activity,
     death squad members living in Texas, Cartel- related killings of U.S.
     citizens in Mexico, Cartel-related violence along the border directed at
     U.S. law enforcement and the recruitment of Texas children in our border
     region to support Cartel operations on both sides of the border. These
     indicators reflect what the Texas Department of Public Safety refers to
     as "spill over crime" and are discussed below:

     Over the last 18 months, six of the seven Mexican Cartels have
     established command and control networks in Texas cities. This is a
     three-fold increase. Within the last year the number of Texas prison
     gangs who work directly with the Mexican Cartels have increased from
     four to twelve. This is significant because 62% of prison gang members
     are incarcerated for violent crimes in Texas and as much as 60% of the
     criminal activity in some Texas communities is carried out by gangs.
     Since January 2010, DPS has identified in Texas 22 murders, 24 assaults,
     15 shootings and five kidnappings directly related to the Mexican
     Cartels. -- The Mexican Cartels are recruiting Texas school age children
     to support Cartel operations. The border region constitutes 9.4% of the
     state's population and now has over 18.9% of the juvenile felony drug
     and gang referrals. -- The Mexican Cartels are actively recruiting U.S.
     law enforcement officers to support their smuggling operations. Two
     South Texas Sheriffs were convicted for Cartel-related corruption and
     over 70 CBP Agents have been arrested for corruption along the southwest
     border. -- The Mexican Cartels and Texas gangs who support them smuggle
     and traffic in humans. There have been 480 human trafficking victims
     over the last four years, 77% were children. Approximately 10% of the
     calls to the National Human Trafficking Hotline come from Texas, more
     than any other state. -- The FBI in San Antonio reported that there have
     been 266 kidnappings since 2004, 14 reported in 2004, and 58 in 2009.
     Kidnappings include Americans kidnapped in Mexico, victims abducted in
     Texas and taken to Mexico and victims kidnapped in Texas by subjects
     from Mexico. -- Virtual kidnappings and extortions are increasing in
     Texas. There were 23 reports of attempted extortion in El Paso between
     August 2009 and September 2010. -- The amount of drug and human
     smuggling and trafficking that occurs in Texas is an essential indicator
     of the crime impact on the state. A senior DHS official has reported
     that only 6.5% of the drugs and humans smuggled into the U.S. from
     Mexico are interdicted. The Department of Public Safety is not in a
     position to confirm the percentage cited but it does track interdictions
     within the border region and seizures beyond the check points.

     -- The 2009 UCR data for the El Paso Police Department shows a reduction
     in murders; however, the 2011 data from the El Paso Police Department
     currently shows a 1,200% increase in murders from 2010 to 2011. The
     Department of Public Safety considers UCR data as only one indicator
     because of the delay in reporting and the limited incidents it captures.

     -- CBP Agents and Officers continue to arrest illegal aliens along the
     U.S./Mexico border from countries with a known terrorism presence and
     74% of those arrests have occurred in Texas.

     * A recent federal investigation in Texas underscores the seriousness of
     this homeland security threat. Between 2006-2008, Dhakane smuggled 300
     Somali illegal aliens, moving them through Brazil-Guatemala-Mexico-Texas
     and California. Dhakane eventually admitted that not only had he worked
     for many years for the designated terrorist groups AL-ITTIHAD-AL-ISLAMI
     (AIAI, or Islamic Union Courts/closely affiliated with al-Shabaab) and
     the AL-BARRAKAT, he moved at least seven committed Jihadists, most of
     them over the U.S. southwestern border.

     -- Total amount of Operation Border Star seizures from 2006 to present
     have an estimated street value of $7,939,824,739.23 (see Exhibit 1).

     -- The Texas Department of Public Safety has seen an increase in Cartel
     related seizures occurring beyond the check points and along the ten
     major corridors in Texas.

     Cocaine 28% increase

     Marijuana 124% increase

     Heroin 2,493% increase

     Methamphetamine 135% increase

     Bulk Cash 168% increase

     Weapons 155% increase

     When the U.S./Mexico border is finally secured the Mexican Cartels will
     no longer have access to the billions of dollars they use to undermine
     the domestic security of Mexico and the safety and security of the
     citizens of Texas and the nation. Border security can be accomplished
     with the sufficient will and resources of the federal government working
     as a team with local and state law enforcement agencies.

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

     On Oct 27, 2011, at 8:02 PM, Colby Martin wrote:

       First, I think you need to remember how pieces are published. 
       Personally, I do not care one way or another if this ever makes it on
       site.  That is not my job.  Part of my job as I understand it is to
       find subjects that interest me and to present them, which I did a week
       ago.  4000 words worth of thoughts.  There were no comments.  Then, I
       was told by OpCenter they were interested in turning into a piece, and
       so I did.  They asked to split it in to two pieces, and so this is the
       first installment.  I personally don't see where exactly you are
       saying what details need to be added, you are making a subjective
       decision on whether or not this piece is relevant to our readers,
       again not your call or mine.  I personally believe it is something
       that is valuable, because I don't believe it is common knowledge as to
       WHY cartels move into human smuggling, and how many factors lead to
       that decision. 

       On 10/27/11 7:43 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         This doesn't answer any of the questions many other analysts have
         been asking.  You can try and answer those questions with the detail
         and explanation of a stratfor analysis, or you can settle with a
         piece that everyone is telling you is not good enough.  your call.

         here's that media for you:
         http://tinyurl.com/3r9p2aj

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: "Colby Martin" &lt;colby.martin@stratfor.com&gt;
         To: analysts@stratfor.com
         Sent: Thursday, October 27, 2011 7:39:24 PM
         Subject: Re: FORCOMMENT- Cartels and Human Smuggling/Trafficking

         On 10/27/11 7:35 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           You don't explain why.  See my comments in the other one I sent. 

           Here's what you have:
           Cartels need more revenue streams  [who, why exactly?] increased
           operational costs, simple
           Human smuggling/trafficking uses similar methods as drug
           trafficking  [ok, but it's intuitively not exactly the same,
           specifying the tactics would add value]intuitive?  exactly, ok i
           can tone that down, but i am telling you it is very similar. 
           cartels do not differentiate between a human being a cocaine, its
           all cargo
           Profits for human smuggling/trafficking have increased due to US
           border enforcement  [hasn't this changed in last couple years,
           what are the precise shifts]this is in the piece about when it
           started changing.  profits went up, needs of cartels for new
           revenue streams increased, and so they entered into human
           smuggling and trafficking
           Thus, cartels are now moving humans.

           I had read all of that before in our own analysis with the
           exception of the changes on the US border (which very well
           could've been in older analysis that I haven't read).  Very little
           in the way of tactics or nuance was added to any of those points. 
           the US border changes are a major point, and it is not typically
           made in mainstream media.  Americans typically dont ask why
           migrants now go through the desert and stay, nor do they want to
           hear that it is because of US policies that cause this. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: "Colby Martin" &lt;colby.martin@stratfor.com&gt;
           To: analysts@stratfor.com
           Sent: Thursday, October 27, 2011 7:24:22 PM
           Subject: Re: FORCOMMENT- Cartels and Human Smuggling/Trafficking

           the sentences made in cartel updates are just assertions.  this is
           an explanation for those assertions.  please explain how saying
           cartels are no longer simply drug trafficking organizations and
           then explaining why is just an assertion?

           On 10/27/11 7:19 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

             Because they are just assertions.  We've said as much as this in
             a few sentences in different cartel updates.  Why do we need a
             whole piece for that?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: "Colby Martin" &lt;colby.martin@stratfor.com&gt;
             To: analysts@stratfor.com
             Sent: Thursday, October 27, 2011 7:09:54 PM
             Subject: Re: FORCOMMENT- Cartels and Human Smuggling/Trafficking

             why is it important to do the how first? why can't i make
             assertions of cartels impact on human smuggling before
             explaining how humans are smuggled or trafficked.  there is a
             second piece that will be focused just on that point.

              the point of this piece is to explain drug cartels are involved
             in human smuggling.  we are currently working on smuggling
             operations all over the world, and this is one of those pieces. 
             We spend a lot of time talking about drug cartels and what they
             are and this piece explains there move into other types of
             smuggling and trafficking.  This is important for understanding
             cartels as more than drug trafficking organizations, but as
             international businesses that operate as such.

             Could someone please send me the reports that explain this
             dynamic that I seem to have missed?
             On 10/27/11 6:05 PM, Karen Hooper wrote:

               I am not sure this is ready to go. I think we need to
               establish our baseline analysis of HOW people are smuggled and
               trafficked before going into assertions about the impact of
               this logistically on the drug cartels. This is a heavily
               studied issue, i think we can get a lot of relevant info.

               Karen Hooper
               Latin America Analyst
               o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
               c: 512.750.7234
               STRATFOR
               www.stratfor.com
               On 10/27/11 4:26 PM, Colby Martin wrote:

                the conclusion could be made stronger i think but wanted to
               get it out before everyone checked out
                

               The cartel war currently underway in Mexico has forced Mexican
               cartels to look for alternative sources of capital outside of
               the trafficking of narcotics. I would suggest more
               straightforward language like "One of the ways that cartels
               make money outside of drug smuggling is....  Now more than
               ever, cartels need money to pay for weapons, enforcers, and
               bribes necessary for fighting the drug war.  Because of the
               increased operational costs incurred by the cartels fighting
               each other and fighting state security forces, alternative
               [nix 'alternative'... it's just a revenue stream] it is an
               alternative to there main source of income, drugs, its
               metioned belowrevenue streams of all types - including human
               smuggling and trafficking, piracy, extortion, kidnapping, oil
               theft, money laundering and arms smuggling are valuable
               business operations for the cartels.  Narcotics' trafficking
               remains the cartel's primary source of income because the
               profit margins are much higher for drugs than other types of
               illicit cargo, however, Mexican cartels are no longer just
               drug trafficking organizations, but are now international
               criminal organizations.  

               Two enterprises the Mexican cartels have easily absorbed into
               their corporate structure are human smuggling and trafficking
               operations. you said this many times in the preceding
               paragraph  Human smuggling (the transportation of people from
               one place to another for an agreed upon fee) and trafficking
               (the exploitation sale? of people through forced prostitution,
               slavery, or bonded servitude) has become much more lucrative
               in the past 20 because of the increased difficulty and danger
               involved in moving migrants over the Mexican border and into
               the United States.

               Cartel involvement in human smuggling is not a new
               phenomenon.  In the 1990's cartels were content with
               collecting taxes paid by alien omg there are extra
               terrestrials in mexico?! I knew it! smuggling organizations
               for use of cartel smuggling routes through the borderlands
               into the United States.  However, as profits increased and
               alternative revenue streams were needed, the cartels realized
               they had no reason or desire to share profits with traditional
               alien smuggling organizations.  In fact, cartels now typically
               kidnap or kill any smugglers who do not have approval to
               operate in their territory. 

               The infrastructure used for narcotics smuggling is also used
               for human smuggling, with very little if any modifications
               made to routes, safe houses (called drop houses), and modes of
               transportation er, on this last part I have to imagine there's
               a difference. A boxcar or semi outfitted with food, water, air
               vents and some sort of waste disposal mechanism (read:
               Buckets) is different from stuffing bags of coke into car
               compartments. Not to mention the VAST difference in getting
               higher end people smuggled across the border which requires
               getting faked passports, and securing immediate
               buyers/safehouses in the united states. In fact, I really
               think you should start with the logistics of what it takes to
               smuggle humans. no, there isn't much of a difference. 
               migrants aren't given food, water, or air vents very often
               they just have what they can carry.  These existing networks
               have allowed cartels to seamlessly incorporate human smuggling
               into their normal smuggling operations. 

               Cartels are also able to use human smuggling operations to
               protect loads of narcotics because migrants will be used as a
               diversion for drug shipments by moving the people through one
               location at the same time the drugs are moved through a
               different entry point.  This draws border patrol resources
               away from the drug smuggling operations and makes it much
               easier to get drug load into the United States.   

               Illegal migrants are also sometimes forced to become drug
               mules and carry drugs into the United States, although it is
               not as common as sometimes reported in main stream media.
               speaking of incidence rates, how many people are smuggled
               every year? where are they smuggled from? how many are
               economic refugees? How many are from Mexico? Central America?
               South Asia? Europe? Eastern Europe?this isnt the point of the
               piece.   Sometimes the migrant could ask to be a mule in order
               to pay off some of the debt incurred for being brought across
               the border, or are forced to carry it for unknown reasons. 
               However, using scared, inexperienced migrants who do not know
               there way through the desert or mountains is not a good way to
               insure safe transport of the most drug load.  It also isn't
               necessary for the cartels to rely heavily on illegal migrants
               to mule drugs because paying a professional is inexpensive
               (wasn't it like, 300 US a load or less?) and they are better
               trained to deal with anything that goes wrong. 

               Starting in 1993-94 with Operation Hold-the-Line in El Paso
               and Operation Gatekeeper in San Diego anti-smuggling
               operations and increased numbers of border patrol agents, from
               about 8000 in 1998 to around 17,000 in 2010(victoria do you
               have 2011 numbers?), have forced migrants away from urban
               crossing points into increasingly desolate areas. 

               This dynamic has caused profits for alien smuggling operations
               to skyrocket over the past 10 years because the intensified
               interdiction efforts have increased the value of the services
               coyotes provide.  A decade ago, most illegal migrants did not
               use a coyote, but now find it almost impossible to cross over
               without one. A STRATFOR source that works on the Arizona
               border confirmed that only the migrants who have crossed into
               the United States illegally multiple times or have fraudulent
               documents do not use a coyote.  

               Prices have gone from $500 a head paid to "mom and pop"
               outfits who typically smuggled migrants into the United States
               for seasonal work.  Many times, the coyote was just a local
               who lived near the border and knew how to get across safely.
                The illegal migrants would go to the United States to work,
               and then return home after they had earned enough money or the
               growing season was over.  Now, typical prices range from $2000
               for Mexicans, $10,000 for Central Americans or Cubans, to
               $40,000 or more for a Chinese national or special interest
               aliens from countries like Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, and
               Pakistan. (it is actually more, victoria?) No way.... there
               are plenty of people who get over who can't afford 10,000
               bucks. This brings up a separate issue.... of the people who
               cross, how many use the services of the cartels? And is that
               $10,000 to be escorted from Guat to the US? Or is that a
               straight up mark up thanks to racism?i don't quite understand
               what you are saying no way to?  yes, i have read as high as
               75,000 for special interest aliens, there is quite a bit of
               literature on this.  they do afford it because that is the
               going rate.  they typically borrow the money from families or
               villagers, or they work it off.  again, plenty of evidence,
               some of it personal, that this is the going rate.  yes, it is
               racism i suppose.

               Mexican cartels also use their control over human smuggling
               infrastructure you still haven't told us what this
               infrastructure isthere is a second piece that will break down
               the infrastructure to increase profits in other areas of their
               criminal enterprise. As the economic crisis in the US has
               caused a decrease in the numbers of migrants crossing the
               border, cartels have increasingly turned to human trafficking,
               declared by the Department of Homeland Security as a form of
               modern day slavery.  Sex trafficking and slavery operations
               are a source of income for the cartels long after the migrants
               have been brought into the United States, whereas smuggling a
               person only nets one payment for services rendered.

               Kidnapping, especially of Central Americans, from anywhere
               along the migrant routes into the United States is also
               extremely lucrative. Mexican train yards are prime locations
               because the migrant must stay close to the train tracks in
               order to catch a ride north. 

               It is common for cartels to kidnap migrants, called
               "chickens," from other smugglers drop-houses inside the United
               States and then hold them for ransom, sometimes thousands of
               dollars above the fee agreed upon between the smugglers and
               alien.  The family members or sponsors will be forced to pay
               using the same money wires they use for paying the coyotes. 
               If payment is not made the illegal migrants are commonly
               forced to work off the ransom, or they are killed.

               The 2010 National Mexican Human Rights Commission claimed Los
               Zetas are the most active criminal organization involved in
               human smuggling and trafficking in Mexico, although other
               cartels are also involved.  In 2008 the Sinaloa cartel were
               linked to trafficking minors for prostitution with the
               president of Peruvians against child pornography, Dimitri
               Senmache Artola, stating that narco-trafficking organizations
               were combining drug trafficking and sex trafficking operations
               because they were able to utilize the same routes and modes of
               operation, including corruption of authorities.  A February,
               2010 Foreign Policy Research Institute report on the impact of
               Arturo Beltran Leyva's death listed the ability to smuggle
               humans, promote prostitution, and carry out kidnappings as
               part of ABL's assets.

               The diversification of capital streams into Mexican Cartels
               makes them much stronger institutions because they are less
               dependent on one product for their survival. If the drug war
               in Mexico subsided, the remaining cartels would be extremely
               diverse, strong organizations with multiple sources of income,
               territorial control of ports of entry, and a massive
               infrastructure for controlling trade flows into the United
               States. 

               Human smuggling and trafficking operations are perfect for
               cartels because the demand for cheap labor will never
               completely go away.  As long as the United States represents a
               better life for the thousands of migrants each year, cartels
               will be willing to take them, for a price. 

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

             --
             Sean Noonan
             Tactical Analyst
             Office: +1 512-279-9479
             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
             www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

           --
           Sean Noonan
           Tactical Analyst
           Office: +1 512-279-9479
           Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
           Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
           www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

         --
         Sean Noonan
         Tactical Analyst
         Office: +1 512-279-9479
         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
         www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-28 05:07:27</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/165169_re-forcomment-cartels-and-human-smuggling-trafficking-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>colby.martin@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>166004</id>
    <title>Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta conflict
	in context
</title>
    <description>   Cool piece, comments and questions within

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Nate Hughes" &lt;nate.hughes@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 3:38:44 PM
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict        in context

   On 11/1/11 1:11 PM, scott stewart wrote:

      Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta Conflict in Context

     On Oct. 31, the online activist collective Anonymous posted a message to
     the internet  in which it stated that it was continuing with its
     campaign against the Mexican criminal cartels and their
     governmentsupporters despite the inherent danger.

      

     The messageurged inexperienced activists who might not be practicing
     proper online security measures to abstain from participating. It also
     urged individuals associated with Anonymous to not conduct physical
     pamphlet drops, participate in protests, wear or purchase Guy Fawkes
     masks, or use Guy Fawkes imagery in their internet or physical world
     activities.  Guy Fawkes was British Catholic conspirator who was
     involved in a plot to bomb the British Parliament in 1605, and who has
     become somewhat of an Anarchist icon in the United Kingdom. The British
     celebrate Guy Fawkes Day each year on Nov. 5, and the day has special
     meaning for the anarchists.  

      

     It is not coincidental then, that in their Oct. 6 video, Anonymous set
     Nov. 5 as the deadline for Los Zetas to release the Anonymous associate
     who was allegedly kidnapped in Veracruz by Los Zetas. The Anonymous
     associate was reportedly abducted during an Anonymous leaflet campaign
     called Operation Paperstorm Also you might want to add the date he was
     picked up.

      

     The Oct. 31message acknowledged that the operation against Los Zetas,
     dubbed a**# OpCartela** no space. also, make it clear that this is a
     hashmark associated with twitter tagging (not looking to harp on it, but
     we need to show that we're aware of what that is with at least a
     parenthetical) is dangerous and noted that the collective would be
     assembling a hand-picked group of known and trusted associates to
     participate in a special task force to execute the operation. It asked
     supporters to use a software widget they had developed in order to
     anonymously pass information pertaining to drug trafficking to the task
     force, which will then distribute it. 

      

     With Nov. 5, approaching, and at least some elements of Anonymous not
     backing down on their threats to Los Zetas, we thought it would be
     useful to provide some context to the present conflict between Anonymous
     and Los Zetas and to also address some of its potential implications.

      

     Context

      

     First it issignificant to understand that the epicenter of this event is
     Veracruz, which  has been a very busy place over the past few months in
     terms of Mexicoa**s cartel wars. The port city also serves as a critical
     transportation hub for the narcotics smuggling activities of the Los
     Zetas cartel. Because of this, Stratfor has identified Veracruz as [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111024-mexican-drug-war-update-polarization-continues
     ] a bellweather city thatwill help determine the trajectory of the Los
     Zetas cartel in the coming months. 

      

     One of the big recent developments in Veracruz was the Sinaloa
     cartela**s push into the Zeta stronghold using the [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110928-mexico-security-memo-zetas-defensive-veracruz
     ] Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), which using the name
     Matazetas (Zeta killers) conducted some high-profile body dumps of over
     50 alleged low-level Zeta operatives on Sept. 20 and 22.  On Oct. 25,
     Mexican Marines arrested Carlos Arturo Pitalua-Carillo, a**El Bam
     Bam,a** who was Los Zetas plaza boss in Veracruz.  This means that in
     Veracruz at the present time, Los Zetas are feeling pressure from both
     the Government of Mexico and the CJNG.

      

     Into this dynamic flow, we had the Anonymous internet collective begin
     to take action in Veracruz in August. In response to what Anonymous saw
     as the state of Veracruz supporting the Los Zetas cartel could really
     use a bit more about what led an online collective of activists into the
     mexican cartel war and why now? How does this fit with their modus
     operandi and why veracruz now and not any other place at any other time
     in the last year or two? we get at some of this below, but would get to
     the what brought anonymous into this right up front...

     , they launched Operation Paperstorm, in which activists associated with
     this is the leaderless resistance model, and we want to be clear early
     on that many of these 'associates' may be self-styled and self-appointed
     'members' of the group, not unlike ELF or ALF... the Anonymous
     collective distributed leaflets throughout Veracruz claiming the state
     government supports Los Zetas.  They conducted major leaflet
     distributions on Aug. 13, 20, and 29. They also released videos to the
     internet on the anonymous website? or on the website of the veracruz
     government? or on youtube? on Aug. 26 and 29, condemning the State of
     Veracruz. (According to the Oct. 6 Anonymous video, Los Zetas allegedly
     kidnapped one of the activists involved in Operation Paperstorm.)

      

     Activities outside of Veracruz have also played a part in setting the
     stage. On Sept. 13, two people were tortured and killed and their bodies
     hung from a pedestrianoverpass in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state.  Signs
     left with the bodies signified that Los Zetas had killed the pair
     because they had posted information pertaining to Los Zetas on blogs
     that specialize in reporting on the Mexican cartels. On Sept 26, the
     body of Marisol Macias Casteneda was found beheaded in a park in Nuevo
     Laredo.   Macias who worked for a local newspaper allegedly posted on
     cartel blogs using the nickname a**Laredo Girl.a** A message found with
     her body noted that she was killed by Los Zetas due to her online
     activities.

      

     Following the death of Laredo Girl, Anonymous claimed responsibility for
     a distributed denial of service (DDOS) attack conducted against the
     official website of the state of Veracruz. Although she was killed by
     Los Zetas in Nuevo Laredo Tamaulipas, Anonymous said their attack on the
     Veracruz state website was because of the death of Laredo Girl. are we
     implying that this is an indication of the level of sophistication of
     anonymous activists' understanding of mexico and the cartels? I agree
     that a sentence should be added here about what it means that Anonymous
     chose to avenge Laredo Girl's death.

      

     It is also important to recognize that Anonymous was also unhappy with
     the State of Veracruz over the decision of the state to prosecute two
     individuals who had posted false kidnapping reports on Twitter on Aug.
     25. The false reports alleged that a group of children had been abducted
     from a Veracruz school and the panic caused by the report allegedly
     resulted in some two dozen traffic accidents as terrified parents rushed
     to the school to check o n their children. The so-called a**twitter
     terroristsa** were initially charged with offenses that could have
     carried a 30-year sentence. Anonymous, which has absolute freedom of
     speech on the internet as one of its foundational principles, took
     umbrage with this stiff penalty for the Twitter case a** especially
     because it stood in stark contrast with the impunity many cartel figures
     enjoy in Mexico. 

      

      

     Following the Oct. 6 release of the video in which Anonymous threatened
     Los Zetas if they did not release the kidnapped anonymous activist,
     Stratfor began to focus on the story, and in light of the approaching
     Nov. 5 deadline, decided to publish an, [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111028-mexicos-cartels-draw-online-activists-ire
     ] analysis of the topic, which was released on Oct. 28.  

      

     Following the release of our analysis, the topic has received a great
     deal of media coverage. This publicity has generated a very interesting
     response from Anonymous -- one that emphasizes the fast that it is a
     collective of people and not an organization.  As some
     Anonymousactivists were backing off the issue, erasing online user
     accounts, suggesting that the operation against Los Zetas had been a
     hoax and claiming that no activist had been kidnapped, other activists
     suggested that the campaign should be suspended. Still other activists
     became more strident and determined in their posts, urging that the
     campaign continue. Since Anonymous is a collective, activists can pick
     and choose which actions they will participate in. that means in his
     case that those activists who want to refrain from the campaign will and
     those who want to participate will continue it.

      

     This will to continue was manifested on Oct. 29, the personal website of
     Gustavo RosarioTorres, the former attorney general of the Mexican state
     of Tobasco was hacked and defaced with a message from Anonymous Mexico
     stating that Rosario was aZeta Do we know if that claim is true? If so,
     lets note it because it shows that Anonymous does have the ability to
     dig up factual "dirt" about the Veracruz govt. officials .  It was also
     reflected in the tone of the Oct. 31 message. Some activists associated
     with Anonymous clearly feel compelled to continue with the campaign due
     to the outpouring of public support they received in the wake of the
     media coverage. According to the Oct 31. Video statement:

      

     a**we received many expressions of support and solidarity as well as the
     voices of people crying for help. We must remember that we are on the
     side of the people, and we cannot let down the people, especially in
     critical moments like the one they currently live in.a**

      

     We therefore anticipate that some Anonymous activists will continue the
     campaign. We also believe that Los Zetas will respond.

      

     Revenge of the Sith (Yes Kamran, I agree with Isa that Star Wars is
     better than Star Trek disagree...star wars all the way) 

      

     The variouscartel groups in Mexico have long used the internet as a
     place to trumpet their triumphs on the battlefield and to taunt and even
     degrade their enemies. The cartels have posted videos of them torturing,
     executing and beheading members of opposing cartels. They also
     frequently monitor narco blogs and sometimeseven post on them.  As
     demonstrated by the blogger killings in Nuevo Laredo in September, Los
     Zetas appear to possess at least some rudimentary capability to trace
     online activity to people in thephysical world. It is not known if they
     employ their own team of dedicated cyber experts or if they rely on
     sources within the Mexican government a** although the most likely
     answer is probably a little of both. 

      

      

     In past Anonymous actions, like the Dec. 2010 attack against Pay Pal
     following the Wikileaks case, governments in the U.S. and the UK have
     arrested numerous individuals associated with Anonymous who allegedly
     participated in the attack. In June 2011, Turkey arrested dozens of
     activists associated with Anonymousactions conducted against the Turkish
     government for its efforts to establish a national internet filtering
     system.

      

     Los Zetas, like the other Mexican cartels, do not take affronts lightly.
     Even if Anonymous is not able to provide information that will damage
     Los Zetas smuggling operations, the very fact that this group has
     decided to challenge Los Zetas publicly will result in some sort of
     response. The big question is: do theypossess the capability to
     effectively trace the organizers of the Anonymousaction against them?

      

     One problem with an entity such as Anonymous is that it is intentionally
     amorphous a** it is also as transnational as the internet, and it would
     not be surprising if many of those chosen to participate in the
     operation against Los Zetas are located outside of Mexico in locations
     such as the U.S. and Europe which are outside the immediate reach of Los
     Zetas.

      

     But the amorphous nature of Anonymous can also cut the other way.  If
     Los Zetas pick up and execute some random patrons from an internet cafe,
     behead them and place Guy Fawkesmasks on their heads, it will be very
     difficult to prove that they were not  associated with  Anonymous.  As
     Anonymous noted in their Oct. 31 video, this is dangerous business.

      

      

     The Big Picture

      

     One thing to watch as the Anonymous operation continues is the way in
     which the Mexican public reacts. Many people in the Mexican middle and
     upper classes have been deeply affected by the criminal cartels and
     theviolence the practice. We talk to many people in Mexico who are
     fearful of being kidnapped. In many communities, especially places like
     Juarez, Torreon, Monterrey and Veracruz, businessmen are being caught in
     a terrible bind. On one hand, they are receiving ever-increasing
     extortion demands from the cartels, while at the same time their
     business revenues are dwindling because people are afraid to go out due
     to the violence associated with those same cartels. This is forcing many
     businessmen out of business. It is also creating a great deal of
     frustration and resentment.

      

     At the same time, Mexico has become one of the most dangerous countries
     in the world for journalists, and many media companies practice heavy
     self-censorship to protect themselves. In the wake of the September
     blogger killings some of the narco blogs, like Blog del Narco, have also
     exhibited strong signs of fear inspired self-censorship.   This means
     that the legitimate press is not able to be of any real aid to the
     Mexican people. watch normative...

      

     Mexican citizens are also frustrated with their government, which is
     well-known for corruption.  This is the sentiment feeding Anonymousa**
     original campaign in Veracruz.  This frustration has lead some people to
     begin to talk about

     vigilante groups to fight the cartels a** though that has been attempted
     before in Mexico and as we saw in the case of [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090714_mexico_la_familia_michoacana_expands_its_attacks
     ] La Familia MichoacA!n, which originally began as such a vigilante
     group, vigilantism frequently does not end well.

      

     This is where Anonymous may fit in. With Mexican citizens unable to rely
     on their government, the media or even armed vigilante groups for
     assistance, they may embrace Anonymous and come to view its form of
     cyber vigilantism as an outlet for their frustration -- and a safe way
     to pass oninformation pertaining to cartel activities.  If this occurs,
     we may see people not just in Veracruz and other Zeta controlled areas
     providing information to Anonymous, but citizens from all over the
     country.The only thing is that I don't see what Anonymous can really do
     to los Zetas.  I mean they would have the dirt on officials in the
     government who may be Zetas, but what will the Mexican government do
     about it? I don't see the US govt. being able to do anything about that
     either.  For example, what happened to the guy Gustavo Torres in
     response to the claim by Anonymous.

      

     Also, in the same way that cartels leak information togovernments in an
     effort to use them as weapons against their rivals, we could also very
     well see groups such as the Sinaloa cartel provide information on Los
     Zetas to Anonymous. This of course would provide even more reason for
     Los Zetas to strike out against the activist collective.

      
     one interesting angle is that anonymous depends on anonymity -- and
     particularly novice self-styled, self-appointed members are not
     necessarily in a position to adequately guard their own autonomy

     Also, has autonomous struck out at entities as violent and capable as
     the cartels before? or is this a new move (meaning that even the
     experienced people have no practical experience in making judgments
     about dangers to individuals and the life-and-death consequences of
     dealing with the cartels...)

     If the Anonymous information campaign does indeed take off, and if
     Anonymous is attacked by Los Zetas, the activists could resort to
     releasing sensitive information what kind of sensitive information? to
     the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration in an attempt to damage Los
     Zetas. This would be an incredible irony in light of the way Anonymous
     has viewed itself as an opponent of the U.S. government in cases like
     Wikileaks.  do we have any indication that they would do this rather
     than just making it public? What to be careful if this is how we are
     going to conclude...
</description>
    <date>2011-11-01 22:32:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/166004_re-s-weekly-for-comment-placing-the-anonymous-vs-zeta.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>ashley.harrison@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>166209</id>
    <title>Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta conflict in
	context
</title>
    <description>   Yes, that I why I mentioned the bit about Los Z picking up random people
   from an internet cafA(c) and behead them.  
   From: Ben West &lt;ben.west@stratfor.com&gt;
   Reply-To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Tue, 1 Nov 2011 17:46:55 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict in context
   Just to build on my last comment - and I think this should be included in
   the piece - the cartels could just as easily try to intimidate would be
   sources ratting to anonymous as intimidate bloggers. Imagine if, after
   anonymous publishes a few juicy tidbits, Zetas hang a few headless bodies
   from a bridge accusing them of contributing to anonymous? True or not,
   cartels can intimidate both sides of the information flow and the sources
   may be more vulnerable than anonymous themselves.

   Still think a discussion of Anonymous and source handling would be pretty
   cool.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Ben West" &lt;ben.west@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 5:42:42 PM
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict        in context

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 4:45:43 PM
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict        in context

   On 11/1/11 1:11 PM, scott stewart wrote:

      Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta Conflict in Context

     On Oct. 31, the online activist collective Anonymous posted a message to
     the internet  in which it stated that it was continuing with its
     campaign against the Mexican criminal cartels and their
     governmentsupporters despite the inherent danger.

      

     The messageurged inexperienced activists who might not be practicing
     proper online security measures to abstain from participating. It also
     urged individuals associated with Anonymous to not conduct physical
     pamphlet drops, participate in protests, wear or purchase Guy Fawkes
     masks, or use Guy Fawkes imagery in their internet or physical world
     activities.[Is this universally or just in Mexico?  The former points to
     problems with LE cracking down on them, the latter specifically to
     cartel retribution]  Guy Fawkes was British Catholic conspirator who was
     involved in a plot to bomb the British Parliament in 1605, and who has
     become somewhat of an Anarchist icon in the United Kingdom. The British
     celebrate Guy Fawkes Day each year on Nov. 5, and the day has special
     meaning for the anarchists.  

      

     It is not coincidental then, that in their Oct. 6 video, Anonymous set
     Nov. 5 as the deadline for Los Zetas to release the Anonymous associate
     who was allegedly kidnapped in Veracruz by Los Zetas. The Anonymous
     associate was reportedly abducted during an Anonymous leaflet campaign
     called Operation Paperstorm.

      

     The Oct. 31message acknowledged that the operation against Los Zetas,
     dubbed "# OpCartel" is dangerous and noted that the collective would be
     assembling a hand-picked group of known and trusted associates to
     participate in a special task force to execute the operation.[hahahaha,
     this says something about leadership] It asked supporters to use a
     software widget[WC. is this the correct term?] they had developed in
     order to anonymously pass information pertaining to drug trafficking to
     the task force, which will then distribute it. 

      

     With Nov. 5, approaching, and at least some elements of Anonymous not
     backing down on their threats to Los Zetas, we thought it would be
     useful to provide some context to the present conflict between Anonymous
     and Los Zetas and to also address some of its potential implications.

      

     Context

      

     First it issignificant to understand that the physical? geographic?
     epicenter of this event is Veracruz, which  has been a very busy place
     over the past few months in terms of Mexico's cartel wars. The port city
     also serves as a critical transportation hub for the narcotics smuggling
     activities of the Los Zetas cartel. Because of this, Stratfor has
     identified Veracruz as [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111024-mexican-drug-war-update-polarization-continues
     ] a bellweather city thatwill help determine the trajectory of the Los
     Zetas cartel in the coming months. 

      

     One of the big recent developments in Veracruz was the Sinaloa cartel's
     push into the Zeta stronghold using the [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110928-mexico-security-memo-zetas-defensive-veracruz
     ] Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), which using the name
     Matazetas (Zeta killers) conducted some high-profile body dumps of over
     50 alleged low-level Zeta operatives on Sept. 20 and 22.  On Oct. 25,
     Mexican Marines arrested Carlos Arturo Pitalua-Carillo, "El Bam Bam,"
     who was Los Zetas plaza boss in Veracruz.  This means that in Veracruz
     at the present time, Los Zetas are feeling pressure from both the
     Government of Mexico and the CJNG.

      

     Into this dynamic flow, we had the Anonymous internet collective begin
     to take action in Veracruz in August. In response to what Anonymous saw
     as the state of Veracruz supporting the Los Zetas cartel, they launched
     Operation Paperstorm, in which activists who associated themselves with
     the Anonymous collective distributed leaflets throughout Veracruz
     claiming the state government supports Los Zetas.  They conducted major
     leaflet distributions on Aug. 13, 20, and 29. They also released videos
     to the internet on Aug. 26 and 29, condemning the State of Veracruz.
     (According to the Oct. 6 Anonymous video, Los Zetas allegedly kidnapped
     one of the activists involved in Operation Paperstorm.)

      

     Activities outside of Veracruz have also played a part in setting the
     stage. On Sept. 13, two people were tortured and killed and their bodies
     hung from a pedestrianoverpass in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state.  Signs
     left with the bodies signified that Los Zetas had killed the pair
     because they had posted information pertaining to Los Zetas on blogs
     that specialize in reporting on the Mexican cartels. On Sept 26, the
     body of Marisol Macias Casteneda was found beheaded in a park in Nuevo
     Laredo.   Macias who worked for a local newspaper allegedly posted on
     cartel blogs using the nickname "Laredo Girl." A message found with her
     body noted that she was killed by Los Zetas due to her online
     activities.

      

     Following the death of Laredo Girl, Anonymous claimed responsibility for
     a distributed denial of service (DDOS) attack conducted against the
     official website of the state of Veracruz. Although she was killed by
     Los Zetas in Nuevo Laredo Tamaulipas, Anonymous said their attack on the
     Veracruz state website was because of the death of Laredo Girl. [can you
     attempt to explain why they linked it with veracruz?]

      

     It is also important to recognize that some members of Anonymous [again
     I hate referring to Anonymous as one entity] was also unhappy with the
     State of Veracruz over the decision of the state to prosecute two
     individuals who had posted false kidnapping reports on Twitter on Aug.
     25. The false reports alleged that a group of children had been abducted
     from a Veracruz school and the panic caused by the report allegedly
     resulted in some two dozen traffic accidents as terrified parents rushed
     to the school to check o n their children. The so-called "twitter
     terrorists" were initially charged with offenses that could have carried
     a 30-year sentence. Those involved in this campaign from Anonymous,
     which claims absolute freedom of speech on the internet as one of its
     foundational principles, took umbrage with this stiff penalty for the
     Twitter case - especially because it stood in stark contrast with the
     impunity many cartel figures enjoy in Mexico. 

      

      

     Following the Oct. 6 release of the video in which Anonymous threatened
     Los Zetas if they did not release the kidnapped anonymous activist,
     Stratfor began to focus on the story, and in light of the approaching
     Nov. 5 deadline, decided to publish an, [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111028-mexicos-cartels-draw-online-activists-ire
     ] analysis of the topic, which was released on Oct. 28.  

      

     Following the release of our analysis, the topic has received a great
     deal of media coverage. This publicity has generated a very interesting
     response from Anonymous -- one that emphasizes the fast that it is a
     collective of people and not an organization.  As some
     Anonymousactivists were backing off the issue, erasing online user
     accounts[does this mean accounts of people in support of the attack?],
     suggesting that the operation against Los Zetas had been a hoax and
     claiming that no activist had been kidnapped, other activists suggested
     that the campaign should be suspended. Still other activists became more
     strident and determined in their posts, urging that the campaign
     continue. Since Anonymous is a collective, activists can pick and choose
     which actions they will participate in. that means in his case that
     those activists who want to refrain from the campaign will and those who
     want to participate will continue it.  [i see how this paragraph fits
     into your analysis the way you have it written, but I think it might go
     better at the front.  You could use the 'anonymous discussion' as a
     trigger, explain it's "collective" qualities and then go into the rest
     of the analysis.  This way I feel much less bad about how we refer to
     'anonymous']

      

     This will to continue was manifested[something is off in the previous
     part of the sentence] on Oct. 29, the personal website of Gustavo
     RosarioTorres, the former attorney general of the Mexican state of
     Tobasco was hacked and defaced with a message from Anonymous Mexico
     stating that Rosario was aZeta.  It was also reflected in the tone of
     the Oct. 31 message. Some activists associated with Anonymous clearly
     feel compelled to continue with the campaign due to the outpouring[WC. 
     Did they really get an outpouring? seemed like they got a lot of
     criticism and also support for going against the cartels] of public
     support they received in the wake of the media coverage. According to
     the Oct 31. Video statement: (did we see specific examples of "public
     support" or are we just going off of the youtube statement CLAIMING that
     they got lots of support?)

      

     "we received many expressions of support and solidarity as well as the
     voices of people crying for help. We must remember that we are on the
     side of the people, and we cannot let down the people, especially in
     critical moments like the one they currently live in."

      

     We therefore anticipate that some Anonymous activists will continue the
     campaign. We also believe that Los Zetas will respond.

      

     Revenge of the Sith (Yes Kamran, I agree with Isa that Star Wars is
     better than Star Trek. What's Star Trek?) 

      

     The variouscartel groups in Mexico have long used the internet as a
     place to trumpet their triumphs on the battlefield and to taunt and even
     degrade their enemies. The cartels have posted videos of them torturing,
     executing and beheading members of opposing cartels. They also
     frequently monitor narco blogs and sometimeseven post on them.  As
     demonstrated by the blogger killings in Nuevo Laredo in September, Los
     Zetas appear to possess at least some rudimentary capability to trace
     online activity to people in thephysical world. It is not known if they
     employ their own team of dedicated cyber experts or if they rely on
     sources within the Mexican government - although the most likely answer
     is probably a little of both.  [what about just old-fashioned human
     intelligence?  Many people discuss blogger identities both online and
     offline, something they could've picked up without network-based
     forensics.  'My brother blogs about...' and on from there.  Or by
     tracing the information the blogger had in the real world, and
     eventually getting back to the blogger]

   Tristan was talking about how the cartels were even kidnapping computer
   science students and forcing them to track anonymous down. Need to check
   with him on specifics though

      

      

     In past Anonymous actions, like the Dec. 2010 attack against Pay Pal
     following the Wikileaks case, governments in the U.S. and the UK have
     arrested numerous individuals associated with Anonymous who allegedly
     participated in the attack. In June 2011, Turkey arrested dozens of
     activists associated with Anonymousactions conducted against the Turkish
     government for its efforts to establish a national internet filtering
     system. [Need something to make a point here, maybe something like:] 
     The reality is that there is no such thing as anonymity, on the internet
     or otherwise.  Any action leaves some trail, whether digitial or
     physical.  In the same way that hackers from Anonymous develop exploits
     to access confidential information, law enforcement agencies and even
     cartels could get around encryption, examine patterns of activity and
     investigate leads that in the end identify a real person behind a
     computer. 

      

     Los Zetas, like the other Mexican cartels, do not take affronts lightly.
     Even if Anonymous is not able to provide information that will damage
     Los Zetas smuggling operations, the very fact that this group has
     decided to challenge Los Zetas publicly will result in some sort of
     response. The big question is: do theypossess the capability to
     effectively trace the organizers of the Anonymousaction against them?

      

     One problem with an entity such as Anonymous is that it is intentionally
     amorphous - it is also as transnational as the internet, and it would
     not be surprising if many of those chosen to participate in the
     operation against Los Zetas are located outside of Mexico in locations
     such as the U.S. and Europe which are outside the immediate reach of Los
     Zetas.(the US is not out of reach, at least not on the border:
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111005-mexico-security-memo-defining-cross-border-violence)

      

     But the amorphous nature of Anonymous can also cut the other way.  If
     Los Zetas pick up and execute some random patrons from an internet cafe,
     behead them and place Guy Fawkesmasks on their heads, it will be very
     difficult to prove that they were not  associated with  Anonymous.  As
     Anonymous noted in their Oct. 31 video, this is dangerous business.(it
     would certainly be within the cartel's capacity to kill innocents and
     blame anonymous in the attempt to intimidate them into stopping their
     activity)

      

      

     The Big Picture

      

     One thing to watch as the Anonymous operation continues is the way in
     which the Mexican public reacts. Many people in the Mexican middle and
     upper classes have been deeply affected by the criminal cartels and
     theviolence the practice. We talk to many people in Mexico who are
     fearful of being kidnapped. In many communities, especially places like
     Juarez, Torreon, Monterrey and Veracruz, businessmen are being caught in
     a terrible bind. On one hand, they are receiving ever-increasing
     extortion demands from the cartels, while at the same time their
     business revenues are dwindling because people are afraid to go out due
     to the violence associated with those same cartels. This is forcing many
     businessmen[enterprises?] out of business. It is also creating a great
     deal of frustration and resentment.

      

     At the same time, Mexico has become one of the most dangerous countries
     in the world for journalists, and many media organizations practice
     heavy self-censorship to protect themselves. In the wake of the
     September blogger killings some of the narco blogs, like Blog del Narco,
     have also exhibited strong signs of fear inspired self-censorship.  
     This means that the legitimate press is not able to be of any real aid
     to the Mexican people.

      

     Mexican citizens are also frustrated with their government, which is
     well-known for corruption.  This is the sentiment feeding Anonymous'
     original campaign in Veracruz.  This frustration has lead some people to
     begin to talk about

     vigilante groups to fight the cartels - though that has been attempted
     before in Mexico and as we saw in the case of [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090714_mexico_la_familia_michoacana_expands_its_attacks
     ] La Familia MichoacA!n, which originally began as such a vigilante
     group, vigilantism frequently does not end well.

      

     This is where Anonymous may fit in. With Mexican citizens unable to rely
     on their government, the media or even armed vigilante groups for
     assistance, they may embrace Anonymous and come to view its form of
     cyber vigilantism as an outlet for their frustration -- and a perceived
     safe way to pass oninformation pertaining to cartel activities.  If this
     occurs, we may see people not just in Veracruz and other Zeta controlled
     areas providing information to Anonymous, but citizens from all over the
     country.

      

     Also, in the same way that cartels leak information togovernments in an
     effort to use them as weapons against their rivals, we could also very
     well see groups such as the Sinaloa cartel provide information on Los
     Zetas to Anonymous. This of course would provide even more reason for
     Los Zetas to strike out against the activist collective.

      

     If the Anonymous information campaign does indeed take off, and if
     Anonymous is attacked by Los Zetas, the activists could resort to
     releasing sensitive information to the U.S. Drug Enforcement
     Administration in an attempt to damage Los Zetas. This would be an
     incredible irony in light of the way Anonymous has viewed itself as an
     opponent of the U.S. government in cases like Wikileaks. (Anonymous has
     made it clear that the value they provide is a safe and private medium
     through which to pass this damning information. Their stated priority is
     to publicize information that people send to them. But, do they have a
     way to protect their sources? They likely don't have much collective
     experience in source handling. I imagine a lot of the details they get
     could put their sources in serious trouble. If I were a semi-smart
     Mexican who knew some super detailed information on the cartels, I would
     think long and hard before handing it over to these guys. This may be a
     separate piece entirely, but I think we need a discussion on source
     handling and how good hackers don't necessarily make good intelligence
     agents.)

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   STRATFOR

   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967

   www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-02 01:50:05</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/166209_re-s-weekly-for-comment-placing-the-anonymous-vs-zeta.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>166280</id>
    <title>[CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing possible
   cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat Anonymous can pose
   to cartels. The video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing personal
   information on cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I
   could not find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual
   being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and
   Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting flyers
   in Veracruz as part of the Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is
   speculation.

   Link: themeData
   Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
   denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed out at
   drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
   criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked individual
   addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the most recent video
   release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels in
   Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers, police,
   politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker
   group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
   consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
   mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their
   demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The potential of
   conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents a unique
   threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out at online bloggers,
   but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches
   from hackers before. 

   What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
        o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat to
   Mexican cartels.
        o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online media
        o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out at
   cartels

   While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a threat
        o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess identifiable
   information on cartel members
        o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
   cartels
        o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
   identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in the
   realm of possibilities for
               Anonymous
               o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit
   online activity (child pornography rings)

   Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the ultra-violent world
   of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result, their understanding of cartel
   activities may be limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting
   in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
   retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online assault of
   cartels.
        o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will cost
   lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are forced
   to collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are often victims of
   extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the identity of these
   individuals will not have a significant impact on cartel                  
   operations. Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero
   &amp; Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any consequences
   from this.
        o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are
   willing to go protect their operations.
           o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
           o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science community
   before, coercing computer science majors into working for them.
           o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of discovering
   hackers within Mexico.

    

   On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there are
     several issues to address and fix here.

     These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the discussion:

          o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but we
     can't gloss over that fact
          o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference between
     stealing bank records from government computers and overloading
     www.loszetas.com main page.
          o     There's no thought out process of what sort of information
     could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is kept online and
     accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
     identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops, politicians and
     businessmen who need to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
     Think about why the bloggers and media were killed in previous
     instances. Was it because they revealed operational details, because
     they acted as informants, because they exposed links with officials or
     because they somehow sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what
     kind of information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
          o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
     realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of
     damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the
     technical ability by a very small number of its members to infiltrate
     certain networks and databases and steal information. Now what kind of
     information would a cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
     internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could information be found?
     Government databases? Once we know what kind of information is
     accessible, we can also know more about the consequences of
     dissemination.
          o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace back
     attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done by people
     who may not understand the difference between an anon hacker and a
     blogger.

     On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

       wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

       -------- Original Message --------

        Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
           Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
           From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
       Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
             To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

       you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a lot
       more work

       You need to lay out:

       a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section is
       unclear
       b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and therefore
       their vulnerabilities and capabilities
       c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
       d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone who
       breaches their systems or exposes their connections

       I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable insight
       that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels of
       sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of cyber
       currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason to assume
       that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a protected
       fashion.

       Karen Hooper
       Latin America Analyst
       o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
       c: 512.750.7234
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com
       On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

       On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       Link: themeData

       Trigger

       Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers. Anonymous,
       a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed out at drug
       cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
       criminal cartels, including a video released depicting...? a person
       talking? a voice? words on a screen? exactly when?.  With the most
       recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
       criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of Mexican?
       American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who
       collude with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
       release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. The
       potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
       presents an unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly
       different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
       Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
       believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do not
       believe for a second that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

        

       In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
       day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of
       releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up front.
       Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back. Provide
       enough details so we understand who this guy is and why/how he was
       abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing revealing
       information on cartel members and operations are true, cartels will
       likely respond with violence against individuals revealed as opposing
       cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous members?. It also is likely
       that public disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will
       force the GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i
       don't understand what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten
       Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
       against Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue
       their threats against any individual using online media WC.... you
       mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here. against
       the cartels.

        

       The Battle Space

       Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate realities
       from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of the computer
       networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical boundaries. All
       personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in cyber space.  (That is
       not entirely true. They are physical people tho live in the real
       world. They have names and addresses - although most of them are
       likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power base consists of their
       technical capabilities in hacking. Any information connected to the
       Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's
       of individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population could
       be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous has done are
       DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big company with a
       website that brings in revenue, but it does not really matter if you
       don't run operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money via
       e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on the web than the
       jihadists.)

       Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base
       consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe
       themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the
       internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything and
       everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme goes,
       anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web of
       people who identify themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of serious
       IT capability. 

       The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been from
       targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

       The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
       Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to maximize
       profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar commerce. Yes.....
       but they use the internet to launder money and issue commands. We know
       that Sinaloa does that from insight. There is no reason to assume that
       Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity.  Their power base is built by
       large amounts of revenue and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like
       Los Zetas, are experienced in facing different types of threats.
       Cartels are always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel
       violence. While battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law
       Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in the
       flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted media outlets.
       Murdering journalists and online bloggers in order to cover details of
       their operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this
       discussion. You need to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of the
       cartels. Don't just assume they have no cyber presence.

        

       Anonymous' Weapons

       Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
       criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to combat
       cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating sensitive
       information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel statements via
       social media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean so far and that
       we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to cartels, they
       cannot fight with guns.  The significance of a targeted information
       operations campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
       overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream
       media outlets and social media blogs as such a threat to their
       operations, that they have continued to target journalists and
       bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was placed with a
       dead female body  more relevantly, on the body of a blogger. The
       message threatened any users who denounce cartels on blogging
       websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not really addressing the
       subheading

       As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks
       disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest Anonymous is
       capable of possessing information they threaten to release. By
       releasing identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican cartels,
       Anonymous threatens the life of those individuals. Anonymous's ability
       to disseminate sensitive information is limited by what is available
       via the Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
       should always be considered a possibility of an attack. However, as
       with the compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer
       networks, information available to Mexico's intelligence collection
       may not be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This
       isn't clear at all

        

       Cartel's Defense

                   A counter response to the video? by the cartels has yet to
       see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped member by Los
       Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by
       hackers so... how has there not been a counter response? also this
       undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is soley internet
       based, and underlines the vulnerabilities of associated members. How
       did they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well
       give you some indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
       Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the
       cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed for
       them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies dedicated to
       fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good intel
       indicating that) they are working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers
       threatening cartels, can operate in any region of the world. Personal
       information including locations is only available if a hacker chooses
       to divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
       figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous. Cartels are only
       capable of dealing with their online enemy, if they can physically
       reach out to them. Or start employing hackers of their own under their
       payroll? Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                   Cartels have been known to coerce the services of Mexican
       citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help of computer
       science majors through personal threats has been reported in the past
       where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels operate in the
       world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they will likely need
       the assistance of technical experts to help combat any threat by
       computer hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has
       been demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying
       any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies
       such as the FBi, with far more technical experience and resources than
       cartels, struggle to find hackers through investigations. A) How do
       you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???)
       B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult to
       track down

                   In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
       likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute
       force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within
       Mexico "still"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals
       with alleged connections to hacker communities will likely be targeted
       and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and public display
       of violence will likely continue to be used to scare online media into
       submission i'm not really seeing the online media-international
       hacking group connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
       inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely encountered
       before in their life. Whether the fear of cartel violence softens the
       confidence of Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels are able
       to seek out and capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos
       could call the collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off any
       inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 16:32:57</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/166280_-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tristan.reed@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>166779</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   Good point. 
   In terrorist terms they are more like grassroots people than AQ core. 
   From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Reply-To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2011 13:11:05 -0500
   To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
   Somehow we have to stop referring to 'anonymous' as a monolith.  They are
   a bunch of different people that essentially get together in an
   online-form of a mob to carry out some action. I'm not sure how to do this
   in writing consistently.  But let's start with shit like 'people joining
   Anonymous chatrooms and claiming to be part of the movement' or something
   like that. 

   Comments in green below.  This is coming together nicely. 

   On 10/24/11 11:19 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of
     these in the US?
      What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
     I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
     whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
     because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
     revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of
     understanding of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is
     expendable to cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of
     coercion.

     Anonymous does not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
     cartels.  mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of el
     chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication as a
     tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable intelligence,
     the government will use it against the cartels. That's a physical
     threat, if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify that
     Anonymous can not directly effect physical security. Any impact to the
     cartel in revealing information will be from actions of rival cartels or
     the GoM. They may release information on a given politician being linked
     to the cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the politician will feel
     an impact (Just because Anonymous says there is a link, doesn't make it
     true). It would be up to others to take action.  I think the way you
     have it worded in the above sentence is good.  Follow with a sentence
     explaining the rest of it, because readers will have the same question
     Karen did.  Something like 'Rather, the threat to cartels would come in
     what information anonymous could expose that is useful to their enemies'

     Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online
     activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to conduct
     significant logistics and business online. We don't know how much, but
     we do know they will have some points of operational vulnerability I
     have heard of cartels doing business online, but don't have specific
     examples which could be used in assessing their vulnerability online.

     by "no consequences" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired,
     arrested or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I
     should say, there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out
     politicians as colluding.
     On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

       Karen Hooper
       Latin America Analyst
       o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
       c: 512.750.7234
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com
       On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
       Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
       possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
       Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by people using the
       banner of Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on
       cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
       find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being
       kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and
       Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting
       flyers ['critical of cartels'?] in Veracruz as part of the Operation
       Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation. [this is good and
       will be enough information to go with, though you'll need a quick
       explanation of what 'operation paperstorm' is.  Adding something in
       the explaining the flyers will work]

       Link: themeData
       Anonymous, a decentralized hacker collective  famous for distributed
       denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government and corporate websites,
       lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
       denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video depicting a
       masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With
       the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
       the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities
       of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who collude with
       criminal cartels do they specify whether or not these are all in
       Mexico? Are some of these in the US?
        What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
       group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
       face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
       was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
       their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
       potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
       presents a unique threat towards TCOs [If TCO= transnational criminal
       organization, it's not really unique.  Many such organizations do
       their crimes online, and have been hacked in response--like the
       nigerian princess scams. I think you should just say it's a unique
       threat to DTOs] . We know of cartels lashing out at online bloggers,
       but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches
       from hackers before. 

       What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
            o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat
       to Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to
       the head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using
       publication as a tool to force government action. If you reveal
       actionable intelligence, the government will use it against the
       cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
            o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
       media
            o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out
       at cartels

       While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
       threat, if it had access to certain types of information:

               -The threat is in the information they can expose that may be
   of use to any cartel enemies.  That could be to the government or other
   cartels or even local citizens (the last one may be a stretch, but i could
   imagine someone discrediting cartel members in the eyes of the public).

            o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims tocut possess
       identifiable information on cartel members 
            o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
       cartels [cut this part here, and make the point at the end of this
       section/paragraph]
            o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
       identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in
       the realm of possibilities for
                   Anonymous
                   o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
       illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are
       known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't
       know how much, but we do know they will have some points of
       operational vulnerability

      -They claim to have information on those that collude with cartels 
   (use the stuff you have above].  Releasing such information could hurt
   cartels' support networks, but most of these people are also easily
   replaceable. 
               -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents have
   access to, and doubt they have such information that provides any sort of
   existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 

       Most Anonymous hackers are likely far removed from the ultra-violent
       world of drug trafficking in Mexico, but it's quite possible that some
       of its members in this campaign are in Mexico and opposed to the
       violence [or something like that.  my limited understanding is there
       are still activist crusader-types in Mexico, yeah?  it seems very
       possible those with a bit of time or computer skills could have joined
       up with anonymous] . As a result, their understanding of cartel
       activities may be limited. Anonymous members in other countries may
       act with confidence when sitting in front of a computer, but this may
       blind them to any possible retribution. They may not even know the
       impact of any online assault of cartels.  [the part below and above is
       written rather normatively.  We need to take that out.  just state the
       facts]
            o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will
       cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are
       forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are often
       victims of extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the
       identity of these individuals will not have a significant impact on
       cartel                   operations. Politicans have been accused of
       working with cartels (Guerrero &amp; Veracruz' governor) before, however
       there has yet to be any consequences from this. by "no consequences"
       what exactly do you mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and
       that happens all the time.
            o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are
       willing to go protect their operations.
               o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
               o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
       community before, coercing computer science majors into working for
       them.
               o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
       discovering hackers within Mexico.
       need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply publishing
       tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the same camp as
       the bloggers  [yes, i think it needs to be clear that their damage
       will be similar to what bloggers or wikileaks can do--limited.  But
       maybe more a danger to themselves, since they are no longer
       challenging governments, but criminal organizations]

        

       On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

         Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there
         are several issues to address and fix here.

         These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
         discussion:

              o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but
         we can't gloss over that fact
              o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference
         between stealing bank records from government computers and
         overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
              o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
         information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
         kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
         talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
         politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
         going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
         killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
         operational details, because they acted as informants, because they
         exposed links with officials or because they somehow sullied the
         cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of information is damaging
         to the cartels themselves?
              o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
         realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of
         damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the
         technical ability by a very small number of its members to
         infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal information. Now
         what kind of information would a cartel keep on a network that is
         connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
         information be found? Government databases? Once we know what kind
         of information is accessible, we can also know more about the
         consequences of dissemination.
              o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
         back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done
         by people who may not understand the difference between an anon
         hacker and a blogger.

         On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

           wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

           -------- Original Message --------

            Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
               Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
               From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
           Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                 To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

           you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a
           lot more work

           You need to lay out:

           a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section
           is unclear
           b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
           therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
           c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
           d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone
           who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

           I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
           insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels
           of sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of
           cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason
           to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
           protected fashion.

           Karen Hooper
           Latin America Analyst
           o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
           c: 512.750.7234
           STRATFOR
           www.stratfor.com
           On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

           On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

           Link: themeData

           Trigger

           Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
           Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed
           out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
           Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released
           depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a screen?
           exactly when?.  With the most recent video release, Anonymous
           makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels. Threats such as
           releasing identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
           politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels.
           The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped
           member otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
           between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
           unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly different
           operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
           Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
           believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
           not believe for a second that the cartels have no experience with
           hackers.

            

           In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as
           a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of
           releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up
           front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit
           back. Provide enough details so we understand who this guy is and
           why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of
           possessing revealing information on cartel members and operations
           are true, cartels will likely respond with violence against
           individuals revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you mean
           Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public disclosure of
           GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take
           action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand
           what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
           effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against Anonymous
           remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue their threats
           against any individual using online media WC.... you mean tools?
           or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here. against the
           cartels.

            

           The Battle Space

           Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
           realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of
           the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical
           boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in
           cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They are physical people
           tho live in the real world. They have names and addresses -
           although most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power
           base consists of their technical capabilities in hacking. Any
           information connected to the Internet is vulnerable to exploits by
           hackers. (Identifying the pc's of individual cartel members in the
           midst of Mexico's population could be quite difficult.  Remember
           that most of what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if
           you are Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in
           revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't run operations
           on the web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are
           also far less dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

           Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base
           consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe
           themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the
           internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
           and everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme
           goes, anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large
           web of people who identify themselves as "anonymous" have any sort
           of serious IT capability. 

           The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been
           from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

           The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
           Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
           maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
           commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money and
           issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight. There
           is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar
           capacity.  Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue
           and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
           experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels are
           always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence. While
           battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement
           Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in the flow of
           drugs and money, cartels have targeted media outlets. Murdering
           journalists and online bloggers in order to cover details of their
           operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this
           discussion. You need to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of
           the cartels. Don't just assume they have no cyber presence.

            

           Anonymous' Weapons

           Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
           criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
           combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating
           sensitive information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel
           statements via social media and defaced websites in Mexico you
           mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their
           video to cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance
           of a targeted information operations campaign by technically elite
           individuals can not be overlooked should not be underestimated.
           Cartels view main stream media outlets and social media blogs as
           such a threat to their operations, that they have continued to
           target journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by
           Los Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on
           the body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
           denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive here,
           and it's not really addressing the subheading

           As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks
           disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest
           Anonymous is capable of possessing information they threaten to
           release. By releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
           Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
           individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
           information is limited by what is available via the Internet.
           Government computers connected to the Internet should always be
           considered a possibility of an attack. However, as with the
           compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer networks,
           information available to Mexico's intelligence collection may not
           be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This isn't
           clear at all

            

           Cartel's Defense

                       A counter response to the video? by the cartels has
           yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped
           member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the
           threat posed by hackers so... how has there not been a counter
           response? also this undermines your statements above about how
           Anonymous is soley internet based, and underlines the
           vulnerabilities of associated members. How did they find teh
           Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well give you some
           indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As Anonymous
           exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the cartels
           will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed for them
           Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies dedicated to
           fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good
           intel indicating that) they are working on disrupting the
           cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in any region
           of the world. Personal information including locations is only
           available if a hacker chooses to divulge it or if the subject of
           the attack is savvy enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only
           work for Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
           online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
           employing hackers of their own under their payroll? Stranger
           things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                       Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
           Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help
           of computer science majors through personal threats has been
           reported in the past where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since
           cartels operate in the world of urban violence and drug
           trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of technical
           experts to help combat any threat by computer hackers.  While
           identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is
           unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers operating
           outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies such as the FBi,
           with far more technical experience and resources than cartels,
           struggle to find hackers through investigations. A) How do you
           know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???)
           B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult
           to track down

                       In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
           likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute
           force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within
           Mexico "still"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?. 
           Individuals with alleged connections to hacker communities will
           likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco
           banners and public display of violence will likely continue to be
           used to scare online media into submission i'm not really seeing
           the online media-international hacking group connection here.  The
           cruel manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer
           hackers have unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether
           the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous
           will remain to be seen until cartels are able to seek out and
           capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the
           collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience
           that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 20:33:26</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/166779_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>167090</id>
    <title>Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta conflict
	in context
</title>
    <description>     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 4:45:43 PM
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict        in context

   On 11/1/11 1:11 PM, scott stewart wrote:

      Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta Conflict in Context

     On Oct. 31, the online activist collective Anonymous posted a message to
     the internet  in which it stated that it was continuing with its
     campaign against the Mexican criminal cartels and their
     governmentsupporters despite the inherent danger.

      

     The messageurged inexperienced activists who might not be practicing
     proper online security measures to abstain from participating. It also
     urged individuals associated with Anonymous to not conduct physical
     pamphlet drops, participate in protests, wear or purchase Guy Fawkes
     masks, or use Guy Fawkes imagery in their internet or physical world
     activities.[Is this universally or just in Mexico?  The former points to
     problems with LE cracking down on them, the latter specifically to
     cartel retribution]  Guy Fawkes was British Catholic conspirator who was
     involved in a plot to bomb the British Parliament in 1605, and who has
     become somewhat of an Anarchist icon in the United Kingdom. The British
     celebrate Guy Fawkes Day each year on Nov. 5, and the day has special
     meaning for the anarchists.  

      

     It is not coincidental then, that in their Oct. 6 video, Anonymous set
     Nov. 5 as the deadline for Los Zetas to release the Anonymous associate
     who was allegedly kidnapped in Veracruz by Los Zetas. The Anonymous
     associate was reportedly abducted during an Anonymous leaflet campaign
     called Operation Paperstorm.

      

     The Oct. 31message acknowledged that the operation against Los Zetas,
     dubbed a**# OpCartela** is dangerous and noted that the collective would
     be assembling a hand-picked group of known and trusted associates to
     participate in a special task force to execute the operation.[hahahaha,
     this says something about leadership] It asked supporters to use a
     software widget[WC. is this the correct term?] they had developed in
     order to anonymously pass information pertaining to drug trafficking to
     the task force, which will then distribute it. 

      

     With Nov. 5, approaching, and at least some elements of Anonymous not
     backing down on their threats to Los Zetas, we thought it would be
     useful to provide some context to the present conflict between Anonymous
     and Los Zetas and to also address some of its potential implications.

      

     Context

      

     First it issignificant to understand that the physical? geographic?
     epicenter of this event is Veracruz, which  has been a very busy place
     over the past few months in terms of Mexicoa**s cartel wars. The port
     city also serves as a critical transportation hub for the narcotics
     smuggling activities of the Los Zetas cartel. Because of this, Stratfor
     has identified Veracruz as [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111024-mexican-drug-war-update-polarization-continues
     ] a bellweather city thatwill help determine the trajectory of the Los
     Zetas cartel in the coming months. 

      

     One of the big recent developments in Veracruz was the Sinaloa
     cartela**s push into the Zeta stronghold using the [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110928-mexico-security-memo-zetas-defensive-veracruz
     ] Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), which using the name
     Matazetas (Zeta killers) conducted some high-profile body dumps of over
     50 alleged low-level Zeta operatives on Sept. 20 and 22.  On Oct. 25,
     Mexican Marines arrested Carlos Arturo Pitalua-Carillo, a**El Bam
     Bam,a** who was Los Zetas plaza boss in Veracruz.  This means that in
     Veracruz at the present time, Los Zetas are feeling pressure from both
     the Government of Mexico and the CJNG.

      

     Into this dynamic flow, we had the Anonymous internet collective begin
     to take action in Veracruz in August. In response to what Anonymous saw
     as the state of Veracruz supporting the Los Zetas cartel, they launched
     Operation Paperstorm, in which activists who associated themselves with
     the Anonymous collective distributed leaflets throughout Veracruz
     claiming the state government supports Los Zetas.  They conducted major
     leaflet distributions on Aug. 13, 20, and 29. They also released videos
     to the internet on Aug. 26 and 29, condemning the State of Veracruz.
     (According to the Oct. 6 Anonymous video, Los Zetas allegedly kidnapped
     one of the activists involved in Operation Paperstorm.)

      

     Activities outside of Veracruz have also played a part in setting the
     stage. On Sept. 13, two people were tortured and killed and their bodies
     hung from a pedestrianoverpass in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state.  Signs
     left with the bodies signified that Los Zetas had killed the pair
     because they had posted information pertaining to Los Zetas on blogs
     that specialize in reporting on the Mexican cartels. On Sept 26, the
     body of Marisol Macias Casteneda was found beheaded in a park in Nuevo
     Laredo.   Macias who worked for a local newspaper allegedly posted on
     cartel blogs using the nickname a**Laredo Girl.a** A message found with
     her body noted that she was killed by Los Zetas due to her online
     activities.

      

     Following the death of Laredo Girl, Anonymous claimed responsibility for
     a distributed denial of service (DDOS) attack conducted against the
     official website of the state of Veracruz. Although she was killed by
     Los Zetas in Nuevo Laredo Tamaulipas, Anonymous said their attack on the
     Veracruz state website was because of the death of Laredo Girl. [can you
     attempt to explain why they linked it with veracruz?]

      

     It is also important to recognize that some members of Anonymous [again
     I hate referring to Anonymous as one entity] was also unhappy with the
     State of Veracruz over the decision of the state to prosecute two
     individuals who had posted false kidnapping reports on Twitter on Aug.
     25. The false reports alleged that a group of children had been abducted
     from a Veracruz school and the panic caused by the report allegedly
     resulted in some two dozen traffic accidents as terrified parents rushed
     to the school to check o n their children. The so-called a**twitter
     terroristsa** were initially charged with offenses that could have
     carried a 30-year sentence. Those involved in this campaign from
     Anonymous, which claims absolute freedom of speech on the internet as
     one of its foundational principles, took umbrage with this stiff penalty
     for the Twitter case a** especially because it stood in stark contrast
     with the impunity many cartel figures enjoy in Mexico. 

      

      

     Following the Oct. 6 release of the video in which Anonymous threatened
     Los Zetas if they did not release the kidnapped anonymous activist,
     Stratfor began to focus on the story, and in light of the approaching
     Nov. 5 deadline, decided to publish an, [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111028-mexicos-cartels-draw-online-activists-ire
     ] analysis of the topic, which was released on Oct. 28.  

      

     Following the release of our analysis, the topic has received a great
     deal of media coverage. This publicity has generated a very interesting
     response from Anonymous -- one that emphasizes the fast that it is a
     collective of people and not an organization.  As some
     Anonymousactivists were backing off the issue, erasing online user
     accounts[does this mean accounts of people in support of the attack?],
     suggesting that the operation against Los Zetas had been a hoax and
     claiming that no activist had been kidnapped, other activists suggested
     that the campaign should be suspended. Still other activists became more
     strident and determined in their posts, urging that the campaign
     continue. Since Anonymous is a collective, activists can pick and choose
     which actions they will participate in. that means in his case that
     those activists who want to refrain from the campaign will and those who
     want to participate will continue it.  [i see how this paragraph fits
     into your analysis the way you have it written, but I think it might go
     better at the front.  You could use the 'anonymous discussion' as a
     trigger, explain it's "collective" qualities and then go into the rest
     of the analysis.  This way I feel much less bad about how we refer to
     'anonymous']

      

     This will to continue was manifested[something is off in the previous
     part of the sentence] on Oct. 29, the personal website of Gustavo
     RosarioTorres, the former attorney general of the Mexican state of
     Tobasco was hacked and defaced with a message from Anonymous Mexico
     stating that Rosario was aZeta.  It was also reflected in the tone of
     the Oct. 31 message. Some activists associated with Anonymous clearly
     feel compelled to continue with the campaign due to the outpouring[WC. 
     Did they really get an outpouring? seemed like they got a lot of
     criticism and also support for going against the cartels] of public
     support they received in the wake of the media coverage. According to
     the Oct 31. Video statement: (did we see specific examples of "public
     support" or are we just going off of the youtube statement CLAIMING that
     they got lots of support?)

      

     a**we received many expressions of support and solidarity as well as the
     voices of people crying for help. We must remember that we are on the
     side of the people, and we cannot let down the people, especially in
     critical moments like the one they currently live in.a**

      

     We therefore anticipate that some Anonymous activists will continue the
     campaign. We also believe that Los Zetas will respond.

      

     Revenge of the Sith (Yes Kamran, I agree with Isa that Star Wars is
     better than Star Trek. What's Star Trek?) 

      

     The variouscartel groups in Mexico have long used the internet as a
     place to trumpet their triumphs on the battlefield and to taunt and even
     degrade their enemies. The cartels have posted videos of them torturing,
     executing and beheading members of opposing cartels. They also
     frequently monitor narco blogs and sometimeseven post on them.  As
     demonstrated by the blogger killings in Nuevo Laredo in September, Los
     Zetas appear to possess at least some rudimentary capability to trace
     online activity to people in thephysical world. It is not known if they
     employ their own team of dedicated cyber experts or if they rely on
     sources within the Mexican government a** although the most likely
     answer is probably a little of both.  [what about just old-fashioned
     human intelligence?  Many people discuss blogger identities both online
     and offline, something they could've picked up without network-based
     forensics.  'My brother blogs about...' and on from there.  Or by
     tracing the information the blogger had in the real world, and
     eventually getting back to the blogger]

   Tristan was talking about how the cartels were even kidnapping computer
   science students and forcing them to track anonymous down. Need to check
   with him on specifics though

      

      

     In past Anonymous actions, like the Dec. 2010 attack against Pay Pal
     following the Wikileaks case, governments in the U.S. and the UK have
     arrested numerous individuals associated with Anonymous who allegedly
     participated in the attack. In June 2011, Turkey arrested dozens of
     activists associated with Anonymousactions conducted against the Turkish
     government for its efforts to establish a national internet filtering
     system. [Need something to make a point here, maybe something like:] 
     The reality is that there is no such thing as anonymity, on the internet
     or otherwise.  Any action leaves some trail, whether digitial or
     physical.  In the same way that hackers from Anonymous develop exploits
     to access confidential information, law enforcement agencies and even
     cartels could get around encryption, examine patterns of activity and
     investigate leads that in the end identify a real person behind a
     computer. 

      

     Los Zetas, like the other Mexican cartels, do not take affronts lightly.
     Even if Anonymous is not able to provide information that will damage
     Los Zetas smuggling operations, the very fact that this group has
     decided to challenge Los Zetas publicly will result in some sort of
     response. The big question is: do theypossess the capability to
     effectively trace the organizers of the Anonymousaction against them?

      

     One problem with an entity such as Anonymous is that it is intentionally
     amorphous a** it is also as transnational as the internet, and it would
     not be surprising if many of those chosen to participate in the
     operation against Los Zetas are located outside of Mexico in locations
     such as the U.S. and Europe which are outside the immediate reach of Los
     Zetas.(the US is not out of reach, at least not on the border:
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111005-mexico-security-memo-defining-cross-border-violence)

      

     But the amorphous nature of Anonymous can also cut the other way.  If
     Los Zetas pick up and execute some random patrons from an internet cafe,
     behead them and place Guy Fawkesmasks on their heads, it will be very
     difficult to prove that they were not  associated with  Anonymous.  As
     Anonymous noted in their Oct. 31 video, this is dangerous business.(it
     would certainly be within the cartel's capacity to kill innocents and
     blame anonymous in the attempt to intimidate them into stopping their
     activity)

      

      

     The Big Picture

      

     One thing to watch as the Anonymous operation continues is the way in
     which the Mexican public reacts. Many people in the Mexican middle and
     upper classes have been deeply affected by the criminal cartels and
     theviolence the practice. We talk to many people in Mexico who are
     fearful of being kidnapped. In many communities, especially places like
     Juarez, Torreon, Monterrey and Veracruz, businessmen are being caught in
     a terrible bind. On one hand, they are receiving ever-increasing
     extortion demands from the cartels, while at the same time their
     business revenues are dwindling because people are afraid to go out due
     to the violence associated with those same cartels. This is forcing many
     businessmen[enterprises?] out of business. It is also creating a great
     deal of frustration and resentment.

      

     At the same time, Mexico has become one of the most dangerous countries
     in the world for journalists, and many media organizations practice
     heavy self-censorship to protect themselves. In the wake of the
     September blogger killings some of the narco blogs, like Blog del Narco,
     have also exhibited strong signs of fear inspired self-censorship.  
     This means that the legitimate press is not able to be of any real aid
     to the Mexican people.

      

     Mexican citizens are also frustrated with their government, which is
     well-known for corruption.  This is the sentiment feeding Anonymousa**
     original campaign in Veracruz.  This frustration has lead some people to
     begin to talk about

     vigilante groups to fight the cartels a** though that has been attempted
     before in Mexico and as we saw in the case of [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090714_mexico_la_familia_michoacana_expands_its_attacks
     ] La Familia MichoacA!n, which originally began as such a vigilante
     group, vigilantism frequently does not end well.

      

     This is where Anonymous may fit in. With Mexican citizens unable to rely
     on their government, the media or even armed vigilante groups for
     assistance, they may embrace Anonymous and come to view its form of
     cyber vigilantism as an outlet for their frustration -- and a perceived
     safe way to pass oninformation pertaining to cartel activities.  If this
     occurs, we may see people not just in Veracruz and other Zeta controlled
     areas providing information to Anonymous, but citizens from all over the
     country.

      

     Also, in the same way that cartels leak information togovernments in an
     effort to use them as weapons against their rivals, we could also very
     well see groups such as the Sinaloa cartel provide information on Los
     Zetas to Anonymous. This of course would provide even more reason for
     Los Zetas to strike out against the activist collective.

      

     If the Anonymous information campaign does indeed take off, and if
     Anonymous is attacked by Los Zetas, the activists could resort to
     releasing sensitive information to the U.S. Drug Enforcement
     Administration in an attempt to damage Los Zetas. This would be an
     incredible irony in light of the way Anonymous has viewed itself as an
     opponent of the U.S. government in cases like Wikileaks. (Anonymous has
     made it clear that the value they provide is a safe and private medium
     through which to pass this damning information. Their stated priority is
     to publicize information that people send to them. But, do they have a
     way to protect their sources? They likely don't have much collective
     experience in source handling. I imagine a lot of the details they get
     could put their sources in serious trouble. If I were a semi-smart
     Mexican who knew some super detailed information on the cartels, I would
     think long and hard before handing it over to these guys. This may be a
     separate piece entirely, but I think we need a discussion on source
     handling and how good hackers don't necessarily make good intelligence
     agents.)

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   STRATFOR

   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967

   www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-01 23:42:42</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/167090_re-s-weekly-for-comment-placing-the-anonymous-vs-zeta.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ben.west@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>167291</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT - CT/CYBER - cyber and internet governance issues -
	EU105
</title>
    <description>   LG: CT/Nate, let me know if you have questions I can pass along to my
   source. Also, I can set up a call between a few of us. He mainly deals in
   governance over cyber issues, but has been deep on the security stuff in
   past

   CODE: EU105
   PUBLICATION: yes&amp;#8232;
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Washington
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  UCAAN Chief (also advises EU and Bulgaria on IT)
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B&amp;#8232;
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2&amp;#8232;
   DISSEMINATION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

 Lauren, hi.
 Hope you are doing great!
 How's life?
 See attached our October issue, and below an interesting interview. If
 there's some momentum at Stratfor for those issues, would be happy to
 talk to you and/or interested parties.

 best,


 "The United States still dominate the Internet situation", says former
 Russian Intelligence Service general (and yes, he speaks in English,
 as one can hear from the audio of the interview, published on the url
 below). No need to click on the link, as the "Voice of Russia" are
 probably monitoring traffic, and where it comes from, so here's the
 whole interview:

 http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/10/30/59533092.html

 Interview with Gennady Yevstafyev, retired Lieutenant-General of
 Russian Intelligence Service.

 This week Cyber Czar of the United States Mr. Cross, he is coming to
 discuss the problems, he is coming not at the very official style,
 because in Russia there are words that Cybersecurity is threatened and
 Digital Diplomacy of the United States is a new method of
 neocolonialism and instrument of destabilization of hostile regimes
 and so on. These are exactly the words which are used in Russia.

 /But Mr. Yevsafyev do you think we could actually explain in full
 details to our listeners the essence of Cyber Diplomacy or Digital
 Diplomacy, however you call it./

 We have, first of all, to note that the cyber problem is very closely
 connected with Internet and the Internet was established in 1998,
 because at that time there was a decision to start The Internet
 Corporation for very innocent things, for assigned names and numbers,
 abbreviation is ICANN. It is based on the multi-stakeholder model, but
 whatever you say the whole thing belongs to the United States. They
 were very much ahead of technological development in cyberspace and
 they still dominate the Internet situation. Usually the problems are
 discussed in the so called Internet Government's Forums, abbreviation
 is IGF, but with the course of time it came out that it is a very
 multi-dimensional problem and Cyberspace Security is multi-sided
 because Cyberspace Security is, first of all, the security of
 day-to-day life of the international community, because invention of
 Internet and its establishment is a tremendous breakthrough in the
 usual man's life, you everything through the Internet, now. And it is
 very helpful in many ways in economic and social and all this kind of
 things. But with the course of time it came out that Internet is not
 that innocent, it could be used against the so called hostile regimes.
 We have seen this number of times.

 /But could you give us an example?/

 For example, only this year, which was very rich with all kinds of
 global cyber space manifestations, you all remember that there was a
 story of a so called Stuxnet Cyber Worm, which was introduced and
 penetrated the Iranian Nuclear Organization and to a logic stand has
 really destroyed, not physically, but, you know, it is a virtual
 thing, it destroyed the operation of many elements of Iranian Nuclear
 Industry.

 /But I've heard some analysts say that digital information
 technologies have also been used in the Balkans crisis, but is that
 truly so?/

 It has been also established, you remember when there was Balkan
 crisis, and Balkan crisis was closely connected with the activity of
 all kind of extreme Islamist movements and everybody was happy that in
 the long run the population in Kosovo and some other areas, dominated
 by Islamic religion, was introduced into the modern age through
 Internet, but then Special Services found out that numerous Internet
 cafes, which were established by hundreds of mosques around the
 Balkan-Muslim areas were, in fact, the centers through which the
 mobilization of extremist terrorist activity was arranged and after
 thorough inner investigations in the beginning of this century it was
 variably established that many of the would be conspirators and
 terrorist exchange the ideas through Internet and arrange their
 meetings and operations using the Internet facilities. So, it is not
 that simple, but nowadays we are very much in discussion of, for
 example, cyberspace attacks on hostile regimes.

 /Hostile regimes, so are we talking about direct Government
 involvement and new Foreign Policy too?/

 I'm quite sure that with certain extent, though the Americans deny
 this, but their General the Head of African Command said he was not
 rejected for any kind of weapons he asked for. African Command was
 responsible for handling of Libya's situation. Though Americans are
 trying to say that they were not using the cyberspace for attacking,
 for example, Libyan enter Aircrafts System, but funny enough the
 system, which was not a sophisticated system, but nevertheless, it
 stopped to operate.

 /You know, it is interesting, because I've been listening to Mr.
 Cross's lecture on the new opportunities, presented by the use of
 digital technologies and answering a question he reminded us of Robert
 Gates words that Cyberspace has become a new theatre of warfare, but
 then he also said that he didn't believe in Twitter Revolution and of
 course he never spoke of cyber warfare, you know./

 The problem is becoming more and more serious. Sometime ago, before
 the whole Arab Spring started the United States have distributed one
 100 000 computers free for local population in Arab countries. Of
 course, not all 100 000 computers that were distributed free found
 their way into the hands of opposition elements, but as it stands now
 major part of it was used to arrange the events of Arab Spring in
 different Arab countries: Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and so on. That made
 some people extremely worried, it was distributed free and the whole
 development, as it stands now, comes to a simple fact that Americans
 have admitted that Cyberspace is a very important instrument for their
 Foreign Policy and they are using it to impose the views on population
 and even some regimes in the outside world. Hillary Clinton is
 supposed to be godmother of creation of the new instrument of American
 Foreign Policy and we have a fact of creation special new department
 in the State Department of the United States, in the most important
 embassies they have special units, which are handling the cyber space.

 /But using for what? Can we specify the ultimate purpose of the operation?/

 There are different purposes: to prevent it's being used by terrorists
 but, on the other hand, they are using it to achieve their goals, so,
 in fact, we have a huge growing problem as it stands now. For example,
 the Pentagon, as stated, is attacked very often by hackers. This is
 another phenomena of the whole problem, and not only the private
 people are attacking but some foreign countries allegedly attack
 American net services of the Armed Forces and Navy and so on. And they
 stated that attack on their vital facilities is tent amount to
 declaring a war and in certain cases they allow themselves in reply,
 if they established and identified the source of attack and if it is
 state motivated attack, to claim that they can use nuclear weapons to
 punish the perpetrators.

 /But in that case there could always be a good justification for
 starting a war just considering the number of hacker attacks?/

 Of course, our people for example in Russia claim that there are about
 ten thousand cases of hacker attacks on government facilities in our
 country. The biggest problem of all is to identify the source of
 attack. For example, in the Stuxnet nobody was firmly sure that it was
 American or Israeli attack. Everybody is saying aloud about this but
 to prove is extremely difficult especially when we deal with countries
 of sophisticated nature and sophisticated achievements in this area.

 /But something needs to be done then. Is anything being done?/

 There is already growing effort in the world to try to find the way to
 cope with these problems and, for example, China, Russia and some
 other countries propose an international code of conduct for
 information security, their idea is to increase the role of
 governments in directing and operating the cyber space. Since
 Americans claim that they are going to defend their right to use cyber
 space without any hindrance, there is a growing difference but not
 only between Russia, China and the United States on the matter, but
 many other Western countries are also very much worried about the
 uncontrolled expansion of Internet and it being used by violent
 demonstrators, for example, in Britain the government of Britain is
 victim of many arranged demonstrations and this arrangement went
 through Internet and the Foreign Minister Hague has admitted that
 Internet requires some sort of control because it could not go
 uncontrolled like it is going now.

 /So, the problem is obviously there. But however Mr. Cross was
 insisting on what he termed as the openness of the Internet. Now the
 U.S. position as far as I understand it is that Internet should not be
 state controlled. But is there an alternative vision?/

 We have international efforts to start doing something. I already
 mentioned that there is Russian-Chine international code of conduct
 but there are meetings. For example, in Yekaterinburg recently this
 autumn there was a meeting of 52 countries arranged by our Security
 Council Office on the matters of Internet, and we have presented our
 views, Russian views, on that. Then in London on the 1st or on the 2nd
 of November there is going to be an international meeting for
 discussion of the problems of the global cyber space security.

 /But do the Americans support these efforts?/

 We must note that Americans got worried because there is definite
 effort to try to find common denominator on Internet among many
 countries. And as it is going now, it is definitely not on the
 American conditions but on the more balanced and serious attitude
 towards the possibility of controlling the cyber space. By the way,
 the treaty of collective security of former Soviet States recently had
 a meeting and there were critical elements in this meeting on this use
 of facebook, and tweeter, and youtube. This official dissemination of
 information is good but on the part of the Americans financial effort
 to support opposition and even insurgency activity in some countries,
 we have to admit that we don't have the same kind of developed
 instruments for diplomacy in Internet but people say that Washington
 has established its position in the Internet and they do not want to
 see them, they don't want to listen other countries and that's why we
 have to deal with all kinds of possibilities. For example, Americans
 would sooner or later leave Afghanistan and we will see huge problems
 for the Central Asian nations. And we already see the elements of
 American policy in the field of using cyber space to influence the
 mood and the future behavior of the population of the Central Asia
 when we are going to see that secular regimes in number of these
 countries fall. And Americans would try to introduce their elements
 into the real life in the area, which is so vital for Russia.

 /So, just let me specify, we are talking about Central Asia, an area,
 which is so far away from the U.S. itself./

 The experience shows that in Middle East, for example, Americans did
 not care. They brought out secular regimes and they now are very happy
 for a very short period of time with very dubious regimes with some
 dubious histories behind them.

 Well, Mr. Yevstafiev, thank you very much and I am quite positive that
 we are going to discuss this subject in our future programs and just
 to remind you, our guest speaker was Gennady Yevstafiev, retired
 Lieutenant General of the Russian Intelligence Service.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-02 18:37:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/167291_-alpha-insight-ct-cyber-cyber-and-internet-governance-issues.html</permalink>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>168008</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   I disagree that Anonymous doesn't matter, but I agree the point of
   Tristan's piece is what makes this interesting.  innocent people could
   die, and that sucks.

   On 10/25/11 9:57 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     No, I didn't say that. 

     Sometimes we write about things--the most obvious and comparable example
     being Wikileaks-- that don't matter and explaining why they don't
     matter.  Another example being some of the grassroots terrorists who
     have been picked up in the US,  say Mohamad Osman Mohamad (sp?) for
     example.  He didn't matter, but we can provide a very good and cogent
     explanation of the threats he did and did not offer that few others do
     (or maybe no one else).

     But I don't think we have the expertise to truly deal with Anonymous and
     I don't care to give them more press for not doing much.  Tristan's
     piece on the other hand gets at a new and developing issue in what they
     are trying to do.  It's an anomaly i think that is worth covering.  It
     is probably the first time we will see violence as a result of their
     activities. 

     On 10/25/11 9:35 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

       So, until Anonymous doesn't become a national threat we shouldn't
       write about it?

       On 10/24/11 8:17 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         There's enough information on what's behind the Aurora attacks to
         respond and shut them down. 

         Change everything I said about SIGINT to CNO combined with
         all-source analysis and maybe human investigations.  Same point
         applies. With the low-level shit, it's usually not investigated.

         As far as I'm concerned an attack that matters is something
         seriously affects a country's capabilities relative to others.  (in
         this, intelligence can seriously affect those abilities, as it
         allows for them to be countered or become less advtantageous,
         relatively)
          

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: "Tristan Reed" &lt;tristan.reed@stratfor.com&gt;
         To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
         Sent: Monday, October 24, 2011 7:33:59 PM
         Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels

         As far as Aurora, I haven't followed it closely. Did they ever
         identify the attackers or number of attackers? I thought the target
         set was the only thing that led people to believe the Chinese
         government was responsible.

         2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
         responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating
         cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case
         HUMINT is just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT
         capabilities does not indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers.
         NSA may have there own department for tracking hackers but it does
         not make it SIGINT.

         Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

         Wikipedia provides an indepth explanation on SIGINT . But in short,
         SIGINT is the capability in exploiting signals provided by
         communication devices, and what can be obtained by exploiting the
         signals. Combining computer network operations and SIGINT is
         innaccurate, because while SIGINT may be used with other
         intelligence disciplines in order to identify a hacker, it is not
         necessary and is no more related than any other intel discipline.
         SIGINT could help you identify a computer devices (not the operator)
         emitting a signal (wifi), and cryptanalysis, which is also separate
         from SIGINT but often used in conjunction, could help in providing
         methods to decrypt messages over a network, but SIGINT wouldn't
         obtain those messages.

         In order to exploit computer network operations, the operators
         involved are specifically trained in computer science disciplines
         and technologies tailored specifically for computer activity.

         NSA also is the primary agency for cryptanalysis. Because of
         technological demands of SIGINT and cryptanalysis, NSA has enormous
         resources in R&amp;D, so I can see why the USG would move some CNO to
         NSA. But their SIGINT capabilities are not indicators of CNO
         capabilities.

         Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary
         labor for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are
         discussing operations on the scale of causing physical damage to
         extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of a cyber
         attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not mattered. 
         You chose the most prolific example of a cyber attack (which the
         whole operation consisted mainly outside of the cyber attack
         itself). Anything that falls short of this doesn't matter? Define
         what matters. None of anonymous' attacks have physically damaged
         secret Iranian nuclear facilities, but I think you are downplaying
         too much the significance of exposing corporate secrets, halting
         businesses' revenues, and embarrassing State actors by defacing
         their websites.

         On 10/24/11 5:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           On 10/24/11 5:07 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

               1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already The USG
               arrested 10 Russian spies last year, are you willing to say
               foreign intel is not capable of conducting espionage
               undetected? No, of course not.  But I also would not argue
               that the SVR is so good to be immune to detection, as you are
               arguing with hackers.  I'm saying they are more detectable
               than you think.  There is no such thing as truly anonymous. 
               Everythign leaves a trail.  Will that trail in every instance
               lead to a single individual? no.  but it can lead to a place,
               an organization, and often, an individual. 

               2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
               responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to
               investigating cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to
               corroborate, in this case HUMINT is just as significant as
               SIGINT. A country's SIGINT capabilities does not indicate its
               capabilities in tracking hackers. NSA may have there own
               department for tracking hackers but it does not make it
               SIGINT.

               Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

               The question is if the attack is high priority enough.  Many
               people assume there is no attribution because there is no
               response, but I don't think that is accurate.  Many people say
               this, because no attribution is one reason for no response. 
               Yes, they do, and if they think that is the primary reason for
               lack of response, then I think they are wrong. 

               3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new
               laptop and start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack
               involves much more than a recently bought laptop.  In the same
               way there is an attack cycle for a terrorist attack or crime,
               there is one for a cyber attack.  A very simple attack may be
               as hard to trace as a nearly-random mugging in the dark in a
               neighborhood with much more serious crime and no CCTV
               cameras.  A more complicated attack, however, involves
               pre-operational surveillance, developing exploits, developing
               programs and code, gaining access, exploiting that, and
               carrying out an attack.  Discovering exploits and writing code
               can be done entirely offline, out of sight of law enforcement
               or intel agencies. Pre-operational surveillance and gaining
               access (the point of the exploit you write offline) would fit
               in my example. The point is, if you don't link your computer
               to identifiable information, you remain anonymous. Just like
               people use certain methods to build IEDs, people use certain
               mehtods to design programs and code for cyber attacks.  Over
               time, those methods become identifiable and more and more
               attributable. This is, for example, how AURORA is linked back
               to the Chinese.  and very specific Chinese, I may add. Being
               connected or unconnected doesn't matter, eventually you have
               to use what you develop, or copy from someone, and all of
               those things can be analyzed.   And that takes time, giving
               more time for your exposure Exposure comes from network
               activity with the target, a lot of the pre-operational phase
               of an attack can occur without network activity. Look at
               everything that went into Stuxnet as a great example, that
               couldn't be done with one person with a new laptop. Writing
               the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary labor
               for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are
               discussing operations on the scale of causing physical damage
               to extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of
               a cyber attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not
               mattered.   All of this activity provides activity and
               evidence which helps for attribution.  Of course it is always
               possible to develop an attack, just like any other operation,
               that even the best law enforcement and national intelligence
               agencies have trouble or cannot attribute.  That's fine.  My
               point is that it's very difficult for someone to successfully
               use Anonymous as a cover and have NSA, GHQ, MID, Aman, etc, be
               unable to attribute it.  How do you know if NSA or GHQ is
               effective in identifying hackers?I don't, but I'm confident
               they are far better than you are allowing for.    They may not
               choose to cover it if it is small scale crime, however. 
               On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                 I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state
                 sponsored cyber warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in
                 actually doing that, since you can conduct a cyber attack
                 without associating with a hacker group and still deny /
                 cover actions on behalf of the State. An individual
                 attacking US computer assets from China, may be working by
                 himself or on behalf of the Chinese government, but unless
                 the US has other intel on the Chinese government's cyber
                 warfare activities in order to corroborate there is little
                 capability to distinguish.

                 It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
                 operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT.
                 Assets from SIGINT would not directly help you track an
                 individual responsible for hacking State run servers. In the
                 past, I have turned to SIGINT organizations for collections
                 on computer related material, but this was due to the US
                 being behind in cyber warfare, and not knowing where to
                 assign responsibility. However, this has changed
                 dramatically in the last couple of years.

                 Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous.
                 As an extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in
                 cash, go to a Starbucks with free public wifi, and never
                 attribute the online activity to something revealing
                 (accessing personal email accounts, tweeting, entering
                 personal information to the laptop, etc..), and begin
                 hacking government email accounts then never use the laptop
                 again. Unless LEA could get an accurate description of my
                 appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible security
                 cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

                 Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer
                 to these enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities
                 tied to specific computer-related activities because of the
                 difficulty in identifying individuals.

                 I think the most likely way for a "Anonymous cover" to be
                 blown, would be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But
                 what if a common participant in "Anonymous" activities, was
                 working for a State? Anonymous has denounced state
                 governments before, if that State agent organizes an attack
                 amongst his IRC / Twitter buddies, what signs could a LEA
                 look for to distinguish?

                 On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                   In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming
                   in a bit)

                   1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything
                   actually harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they
                   can't, but i'm very doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows
                   the first real case where they could do some minor
                   damage--to individual people, not not to an organization
                   or anything that would come as a serious or strategic
                   threat. 

                   2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is
                   actually pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous'
                   as a cover, but that would be pretty easy to bungle, and
                   could probably still be attributed if important enough to
                   those agencies.  The recent attack on Sony actually brings
                   this issue up- Whoever is calling themselves anonymous
                   denies they did it.  And keep in mind how much they have
                   claimed an publicized attacks in the past, even before
                   they were carried out.  The attack on the Playstation
                   Network was more sophisticated than anonymous' usual work
                   (though potentially coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS
                   attacks that distracted Sony's IT security).  But whoever
                   did it, again, no real damage came of it.  Congress is
                   holding hearings over data security, but this is no
                   different than the OC groups stealing your credit card
                   information.  LE will go after them, have some success,
                   but the threat is not that large. 
                   On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

                     I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity
                     to have a broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our
                     readers no nothing, or almost nothing about what this
                     group is and the threat it poses. Reviewing their list
                     of attacks
                     (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in
                     most of the cases, they are the "good" guys, sort of a
                     Robin Hood of the internet . The interesting thing when
                     it comes to their interactions with the cartels is the
                     dubious role they play: at the same time they can be
                     fighting crime by revealing cartel members/supporters,
                     but they can also put lives in risk.

                     However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed
                     by Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on
                     Earth, can conduct a cyber attack under "Anonymous" is
                     worrisome.
                     (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

                     If I run an organization, if I am responsible for
                     government websites, or if I am just a internet user, I
                     would like to know more about these guys. Who they are?
                     What are they interested in? How they operate? Who they
                     have targeted so far? How can I defend myself from them?
                     In what countries are they active? Should I worry about
                     them at all? Can I use them to achieve any particular
                     goal?

                     On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                       nice.  i still think the central focus, and what
                       everything else can build off of, is that Anonymous
                       doesn't know the threat they pose to innocent people
                       caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing
                       on journalists or taxi drivers they show little
                       understanding of the situation.  This has long term
                       implications in not just Mexico.  They don't consider
                       the consequences of their actions and they act without
                       understanding the environment.  It was the same when
                       they released information on the Sony Playstation
                       network to protest Sony.  They hurt innocent people to
                       prove a point. 

                       On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                         Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of
                         discussing possible cartel responses, the focus is
                         on what type of threat Anonymous can pose to
                         cartels. The video released by Anonymous, threatens
                         revealing personal information on cartels as well as
                         states a member had been kidnapped. I could not find
                         any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the
                         individual being kidnapped. According to their
                         facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous
                         Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual
                         posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the Operation
                         Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

                         Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
                         distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on
                         government websites, lashed out at drug cartels via
                         the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
                         criminal cartels, including a video depicting a
                         masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on
                         October 10? With the most recent video release,
                         Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal
                         cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing
                         identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
                         journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The
                         hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow
                         kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. In the
                         Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                         mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                         reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped
                         member are not met. The potential of conflict
                         between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
                         presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of
                         cartels lashing out at online bloggers, but I
                         haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing with
                         any headaches from hackers before. 

                         What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                              o     Anonymous would not pose a direct
                         physical security threat to Mexican cartels.
                              o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to
                         exploit online media
                              o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in
                         Mexico to lash out at cartels

                         While not certain, there is a potential for
                         Anonymous to pose a threat
                              o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to
                         possess identifiable information on cartel members
                              o     It is unknown what information Anonymous
                         could acquire on cartels
                              o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
                         communications, identifiable information on cartels
                         members have to be considered in the realm of
                         possibilities for
                                     Anonymous
                                     o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's
                         ability to reveal illicit online activity (child
                         pornography rings)

                         Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in
                         the ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in
                         Mexico. As a result, their understanding of cartel
                         activities may be limited. Anonymous may act with
                         confidence when sitting in front of a computer, but
                         this may blind them to any possible retribution.
                         They may not even know the impact of any online
                         assault of cartels.
                              o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
                         journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not
                         understand some of these individuals are forced to
                         collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are
                         often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
                         halcones. Revealing the identity of these
                         individuals will not have a significant impact on
                         cartel                   operations. Politicans have
                         been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &amp;
                         Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to
                         be any consequences from this.
                              o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the
                         extent cartels are willing to go protect their
                         operations.
                                 o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                                 o    Cartels have reached out to the
                         computer science community before, coercing computer
                         science majors into working for them.
                                 o    This provides the cartels with the
                         possibility of discovering hackers within Mexico.

                          

                         On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                           Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like
                           the idea but there are several issues to address
                           and fix here.

                           These are the bullets of my main analytical
                           concern with the discussion:

                                o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why.
                           that's fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                                o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a
                           difference between stealing bank records from
                           government computers and overloading
                           www.loszetas.com main page.
                                o     There's no thought out process of what
                           sort of information could anon have on the
                           cartels. What kind of info is kept online and
                           accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
                           talking about identities, whose? If anything it's
                           dirty cops, politicians and businessmen who need
                           to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
                           Think about why the bloggers and media were killed
                           in previous instances. Was it because they
                           revealed operational details, because they acted
                           as informants, because they exposed links with
                           officials or because they somehow sullied the
                           cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
                           information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                                o     Once you identify this info - think
                           about if anon can realistically access it and
                           disseminate it so it causes a measure of damage.
                           Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except
                           for the technical ability by a very small number
                           of its members to infiltrate certain networks and
                           databases and steal information. Now what kind of
                           information would a cartel keep on a network that
                           is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)?
                           Where else could information be found? Government
                           databases? Once we know what kind of information
                           is accessible, we can also know more about the
                           consequences of dissemination.
                                o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel?
                           Sufficient to trace back attacks? If it's not,
                           there risks to be a lot of killings done by people
                           who may not understand the difference between an
                           anon hacker and a blogger.

                           On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                             wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                             -------- Original Message --------

                              Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs     
                                       Cartels                                
                                 Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500        
                                 From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;     
                             Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;               
                                   To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;               

                             you've got some of the issues here, but this is
                             going to need a lot more work

                             You need to lay out:

                             a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your
                             trigger section is unclear
                             b) what our assessment of the online cartel
                             presence is, and therefore their vulnerabilities
                             and capabilities
                             c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high
                             security anything
                             d) how far the cartels would be willing to
                             travel to kill anyone who breaches their systems
                             or exposes their connections

                             I also just want to point out that we have
                             reasonable reliable insight that Sinaloa at the
                             very least has some significant levels of
                             sophistication in their online presence, to
                             include the use of cyber currencies and
                             significant IT capacity. There is no reason to
                             assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
                             business online, in a protected fashion.

                             Karen Hooper
                             Latin America Analyst
                             o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                             c: 512.750.7234
                             STRATFOR
                             www.stratfor.com
                             On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                             On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>168783</id>
    <title>Re: intel guidance - europe
</title>
    <description>   According to the person from the IMF whom I have talked with, "Greek
   authorities are monitoring the cash flow position closely and they believe
   that they can manage until mid-December."

   This graphic shows what they mean by mid-December (I can't way for
   December 29 to arrive!):

   Greek payments
   On 11/2/11 10:11 PM, Christoph Helbling wrote:

     We still haven't heard the opinion of the IMF! I think we have to find
     out what role the troika plays in handing out the money. What if the
     money is handed out despite the protests (at least in the media) from
     Merkel and Sarkozy's side? That is a possibility right?

     On 11/2/11 9:57 PM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

 On it! The FODs are in France right now &amp; said nothing is decided (and i mean nothing) until either Friday or the 8th in Berlin. I am trying to set up a session to game out all possibilities for Fri with FODs. They're being cautious in France. They also reminded me that the date for Med in Greece is up in the air--meaning Russia could cancel or speed it up.

 Sent from my iPhone

 On Nov 2, 2011, at 9:23 PM, Peter Zeihan &lt;zeihan@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:


 The Germans and French have cut off bailout money to Greece. This means Greece will run out of money very quickly and default. Perhaps even before the referendum. The timeline for the European crisis just accelerated disastrously.

 Questions we need to break down:

 1) Kristen: Need to dive into Greek politics tomorrow to see if we can form a forecast as to whether Papa-G can survive the confidence vote. That's probably going to need to be tomorrow's diary? If the answer is no, then this unwinds somewhat.

 2) Adriano: Assuming the answer to #1 is yes, we need to find out how long Greece can last with the money in Athens' pockets right now, with no additional outlays from the EFSF. The IMF is likely the best source of unbiased (well, less biased) information in that regard.

 3) Christoph: We need to be sure that German control of the EFSF is as strong as we think it is. Time to make some friends at the Facility to get their point of view of this latest twist to the crisis.

 4) Lauren: I'm floored that the Russians aren't being tapped. This is getting disturbingly serious. Please buzz your FODs (friends of Dvorkovich) again to see if anything is changing as regards the G20/EFSF/$$$ commitments.

 5) Everyone else: Its possible the Germans/French are going to try and reach out in light of the Greek situation to build up the EFSF. China, Korea and Brazil are the three states that'll be at the G20 (besides Russia) who could theoretically make a meaningful contribution. Considering that they are all en route at present the chances of hearing something in their capitals is slim, but its worth seeing if we can pick up anything.








 --
 Christoph Helbling
 ADP
 STRATFOR

 --
 Adriano Bosoni - ADP
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      <file><path>attach/13/13981_Greek payments.jpg</path><size>89638</size><md5></md5><sha1>a8d950b154f436ee7f4452ed70ac27f3659c560f</sha1></file>
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  <doc>
    <id>170037</id>
    <title>Re: MORE*: G3/B3 - GREECE - Greece to call referendum on new EU
	aid	deal
</title>
    <description>   Well this'll get exciting

   On Oct 31, 2011, at 9:01 PM, Michael Wilson &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
   wrote:

     Some clarity from these articles. The referendum won't be until next
     year, probably January. But there will be a vote on whether to have the
     referendum, this week, on Friday, and it will be tied to a confidence
     vote which he is expected to pass with 3 votes

     Greek PM gambles on referendum for new debt deal; vote expected early
     2012

      
     http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/markets/greek-prime-minister-calls-referendum-on-new-debt-deal-no-date-given/2011/10/31/gIQA5NdjZM_story.html

     By Associated Press, Updated: Monday, October 31, 4:39 PM

     ATHENS, Greece a** Taking a huge political gamble, Greecea**s prime
     minister announced Monday that his debt-strapped country will hold a
     referendum on the new European debt deal reached last week a** the first
     such vote in 37 years.

     Prime Minister George Papandreou appeared to take many lawmakers by
     surprise by saying that a hard-bargained agreement that took months for
     Europea**s leaders to hammer out will be put to a public ballot.
     He gave no date or other details on the proposed referendum, which would
     be the first in Greece since 1974, when the monarchy was abolished by a
     landslide vote months after the collapse of a military dictatorship.

     a**This will be the referendum: The citizen will be called upon to say a
     big a**yesa** or a big a**noa** to the new loan arrangement,a**
     Papandreou told Socialist members of parliament. a**This is a supreme
     act of democracy and of patriotism for the people to make their own
     decision ... We have a duty to promote the role and the responsibility
     of the citizen.a**
     The move allows Socialist lawmakers a** who have been vilified by an
     increasingly hostile public during months of strikes, sit-ins and
     violent protests over rounds of austerity measures a** to pass the
     responsibility for the countrya**s fate to the Greek people themselves.

     Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos, a constitutional law professor,
     said the referendum was called after opposition parties repeatedly
     failed to side with the government in negotiations between Greece and
     other eurozone members.
     a**Greece is living through a drama, from which it must be released by
     asking the people to express its will,a** Venizelos told parliament.

     a**Each citizen will make his own decision, with responsibility, in a
     process that will provide a national sense of relief and recovery.a**

     Later he told private Antenna television: a**It is very clear: The new
     agreement will be submitted to parliament for approval and then
     submitted to the judgment of the Greek people ... the Greek people can
     of course say a**noa** but must bear in mind the consequences of that
     decision.a**
     Venizelos indicated the referendum would be held early next year, after
     weeks of complex negotiations to finalize details of the new agreement.

     The new debt deal aims to seek 50 percent losses for private holders of
     Greek bonds and provide the troubled eurozone member with a*NOT100
     billion ($140 billion) in additional rescue loans.

     Papandreoua**s government has seen its majority reduced to just three
     seats in parliament and its approval ratings plummet amid harsh
     austerity measures that are sending the country into a fourth year of
     recession in 2012.

     The EU statistics agency Eurostat estimated in a report issued Monday
     that unemployment in Greece reached 17.6 percent in July a** even higher
     than the Greek estimate for that month of 16.5 percent.

     a**This is just the latest twist in the unfolding Greek tragedy,a** said
     Sony Kapoor, managing director of Re-Define, a London-based think tank.

     a**With an irresponsible opposition that is promising Greek voters the
     moon, it is very difficult to see how this referendum could be won under
     the ongoing gut-wrenching austerity.a**

     Greece calls referendum on EU bail-out
     http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/68748490-03f5-11e1-98bc-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1cPlCODKu
     Last updated: October 31, 2011 10:46 pm
     By Kerin Hope in Athens, Peter Spiegel in Brussels and Telis Demos in
     New York
     Greek Prime Minister George PapandreouGetty

     Greecea**s prime minister unexpectedly announced a referendum to approve
     a second EU bail-out deal for his austerity-hit country, less than a
     week after it was agreed with international creditors at a European
     Union summit.

     George Papandreou made the pledge on Monday night in a speech to
     lawmakers in his fractious PanHellenic Socialist Movement (Pasok) party
     but did not set a specific date for the vote.

     a**We have faith in our citizens, we believe in their judgment and
     therefore in their decision,a** Mr Papandreou said after rejecting a
     call for early elections by some socialist politicians. a**All the
     countrya**s political forces should support the [bail-out] agreement.
     The citizens will do the same once they are fully informed.a**

     The premiera**s move reinforced concerns that Greecea**s fraught
     domestic politics are spiralling out of control amid growing popular
     anger over public sector job cuts and tax increases. Strikes and violent
     demonstrations have become frequent in Athens and other cities.

     The referendum also looked likely to cause alarm in Brussels, Paris and
     Berlin after Mr Papandreoua**s assurances at Wednesdaya**s summit that
     Greece was determined to maintain a steady pace of reform.

     Thanks to some help from the European Commission, we have a bit more
     clarity on where European leaders will be spending the new a*NOT130bn in
     Greek bail-out aid

     One senior EU official told the Financial Times that Mr Papandreou had
     appeared reticent about the components of the bail-out package during
     talks at last weeka**s summit of EU presidents and prime ministers but
     no one was prepared for the referendum announcement that came a**like a
     bolt out of the bluea**.
     a**I dona**t think anyone expected this,a** the official said. a**The
     calculation has to be this is the only way [Papandreou] believes he can
     get this through.a**

     a**With an irresponsible opposition that is promising Greek voters the
     moon, it is very difficult to see how this referendum could be won,a**
     added Sony Kapoor, head of Re-Define, an economic consultancy. a**The
     decision is good for democracy but is likely to make the euro crisis
     worse by heightening uncertainty in this very fragile environment.a**

     The announcement exacerbated declines in the euro and equities, as
     investors feared that angry Greek voters could derail the painstakingly
     negotiated plan.

     The euro fell to a session low of $1.3827, down more than 2 per cent on
     the day and erasing its gains from last week, when the deal was first
     announced. US stocks accelerated their decline as well, with the S&amp;P 500
     index ending the day down 2.5 per cent. It was the indexa**s worst
     one-day fall in nearly a month, ending what had been stocksa** best
     month since 1991, with a gain of 10.7 per cent, on a sour note.

     An opinion poll published on Sunday showed that more than 60 per cent of
     Greeks were opposed to the terms of the new bail-out, which would
     include another 100,000 job losses over the next three years and big
     cuts in pensions.

     The vote would probably be held in January, when Greek bondholders were
     expected to sign up for a voluntary 50 per cent haircut being negotiated
     with the International Institute of Finance, wrapping up the new
     bail-out package. One Athens banker said: a**This is a worrying decision
     by the prime minister. It could derail the whole process even before
     ita**s properly started.a**

     The premier also announced that a vote of confidence in his government
     would be held this week to endorse the referendum proposal. That vote
     would follow a three-day debate on Greecea**s worsening economic and
     social problems

     Antonis Samaras, the conservative opposition leader, immediately
     rejected the proposal, arguing that a referendum was a**not the way
     outa**.

     a**The only option is elections and, like Ireland and Portugal, to
     request the obviously necessary changes in the bail-out agreement,a** he
     added, referring to proposals by leaders of the two other eurozone
     member states that are implementing EU-IMF programmes.

     Mr Papandreou said this year he might call a referendum on reforms of
     Greecea**s political system but ruled out a vote on its relationship
     with the eurozone. His sudden reversal came as a shock, according to
     party officials. a**This is another upset in a situation that is already
     volatile,a** one said.

     Greece to Hold Referendum on New Debt Deal
     By NIKI KITSANTONIS and RACHEL DONADIO
     Published: October 31, 2011

       
     http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/01/world/europe/greece-to-hold-referendum-on-new-debt-deal.html
     ATHENS a** In a surprise move that jolted Europe and put his political
     future in play, Prime Minister George A. Papandreou announced Monday
     that his government would hold a referendum on a new aid package for
     Greece, putting austerity measures a** and potentially membership in the
     euro zone a** to a popular vote for the first time.

     Analysts said the vote on the austerity package did not immediately
     threaten the comprehensive agreement reached by European leaders last
     week to shore up the euro zone. More likely, they said, a rejection by
     the voters would be treated as a vote of no confidence in the government
     and lead to early elections.

     But the decision to go ahead with the vote introduces a note of
     uncertainty in what had seemed to be a done deal. The anxiety stirred up
     by those fears hammered United States financial markets on Monday,
     showing once again how the domestic politics of even the smallest
     members of the European Union can create troubles that not only threaten
     the currency but reverberate around the globe.

     Addressing lawmakers on Monday evening, Mr. Papandreou said the decision
     on whether to adopt the deal, which includes fresh financial assistance,
     debt relief and deeply unpopular austerity measures, properly belonged
     to the Greek people.

     a**Let us allow the people to have the last word, let them decide on the
     countrya**s fate,a** he said.

     The move was widely seen as an effort by Mr. Papandreou to shore up his
     flagging political fortunes and to avoid the instability of early
     elections. The center-right opposition has opposed the bulk of the
     austerity program, and the prime ministera**s popular support has
     dwindled as Greeks have been hit by a seemingly endless series of tax
     increases and wage and pension cuts.

     A referendum would in effect shift responsibility for the nationa**s
     painful economic choices from Mr. Papandreoua**s Socialist Party onto
     the public.

     By framing the debate as one of continuing to use the euro or returning
     to the drachma, the move also appeared to give the Greek government a
     bit more breathing room a** and leverage a** in negotiations with Europe
     over the debt deal, proving that a matter that some in Germany had hoped
     had been settled last week still had the potential to be reopened.

     a**Ita**s not motivated by the intention of some sort of brinkmanship
     with Europe, but it may have this sort of positive or negative
     effect,a** said George Pagoulatos, a professor of European politics and
     economy at the Athens University of Economics and Business. a**It raises
     the stakes. Ita**s about, a**Will we remain in the euro with a lower
     public debt or will we lose everything that we will achieve?a** a**

     At a time when Mr. Papandreou is under intense political and social
     pressure, including from members of his own Socialist Party, the move
     was seen as the last card he could play.

     It was still unclear how the referendum question would be posed, but Mr.
     Papandreou said the vote would be on whether Greeks supported the debt
     deal and the program of austerity measures in exchange for foreign aid.

     The stakes are extremely high. A no vote would not only be likely to
     bring down the Greek government, it could break the deal between Greece
     and its so-called troika of foreign lenders a** the European Union,
     European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund a** which have
     demanded structural changes and austerity measures in exchange for aid.

     Without the aid, Greece would not be able to meet its expenses and would
     default on its debt, and send shockwaves through the euro zone and the
     world economy.

     Mr. Papandreou also said that he would seek a parliamentary vote of
     confidence in his administration, just four months after winning a
     similar vote before pushing an earlier batch of austerity measures into
     law. The vote of confidence is expected to be held on Friday evening,
     and Mr. Papandreou is expected to squeak by with his narrow three-vote
     majority in Parliament.
     Government officials said the referendum would probably be held in
     January, essentially buying the government time while the details of the
     debt deal are hammered out.

     Addressing lawmakers on Monday evening, Finance Minister Evangelos
     Venizelos raised the stakes further by framing the debate as one of
     Greece staying in the euro zone a** the group of 17 European Union
     countries that use the euro. a**Ita**s for the people to decide to stay
     in Europe or go back to the drachma,a** he said.

     Takis Michas, a political analyst and the project director of Forum for
     Greece, an Athens research institute, said posing the question this way
     was a**a master stroke on behalf of Papandreou in the sense it is
     forcing the various parties to take a very responsible position.a**

     a**If he succeeds in framing the issue as being one of remaining in the
     euro zone, obviously he is going to get a huge yes,a** Mr. Michas added.
     a**But it depends on whether he can frame the question in those
     terms.a**

     Under the Greek Constitution, the government must propose the language
     of the referendum, which would need to be approved by Parliament and
     then by the president.

     Some analysts said the referendum was an invitation for instability.
     a**People are very discontented with him personally and toward his
     economic policy, and in these kinds of circumstances when the debate is
     very passionate and things are tense, holding a referendum could be
     risky,a** said Alexis Papahelas, the editor of the center-right daily
     Kathimerini.

     a**If the referendum fails, obviously everything will be in disarray,a**
     he added. a**Probably we will go to elections, but we have a very big
     chance that the country would go into a disorderly default.a**

     Last Thursday, after European leaders and the International Monetary
     Fund had finally reached an accord, Mr. Papandreou had hailed a**a new
     day for Europe and for Greece.a** But the deal has proved broadly
     unpopular among Greeks, who do not understand how it will translate into
     immediate relief.

     Papandreou Calls on Greeks to Back EU Debt Accord in Referendum
     October 31, 2011, 9:05 PM EDT

     http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-31/papandreou-calls-on-greeks-to-back-eu-debt-accord-in-referendum.html

     Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said voters
     will give him support to forge ahead with economic reforms as he pledged
     a referendum on the European Uniona**s latest accord on the nationa**s
     financing.

     a**For the new agreement, we must go to a referendum for Greeks to
     decide,a** Papandreou told lawmakers of his ruling socialist Pasok party
     in statements carried live yesterday from Athens on state-run Vouli TV.
     a**Democracy is alive and well and Greeks are being called to rise to a
     national duty beyond the regular electoral processes.a**

     Papandreoua**s gambit risks pushing the country into default if rejected
     by voters, and raises the ante with dissidents inside his own party.
     Papandreoua**s popularity has plunged after a raft of austerity measures
     cut pensions and wages, increased taxes and sparked a wave of social
     unrest. An opinion poll published Oct. 29 showed most Greeks believe the
     accord on a new bailout package and a debt writedown is negative.

     a**Papandreou could lose the referendum, which means that new elections
     would have to be called,a** Thomas Costerg, European economist at
     Standard Chartered Bank in London, said in an e-mail. a**Heightened
     Greek uncertainty could propagate to other fragile euro-area countries,
     in particular Italy.a**

     Most of the 1,009 people surveyed on Oct. 27, the day the agreement was
     announced, said the accord should be put to a referendum, according to
     the results of the Kapa Research SA poll, published in To Vima
     newspaper. Forty-six percent said theya**d oppose the plan at such a
     referendum. In the same poll, more than seven in 10 favored Greece
     remaining in the euro.

     Confidence Vote

     Papandreou also told lawmakers hea**ll seek a vote of confidence in
     parliament. The referendum will likely be held after details of the EU
     accord are wound up, Papandreou said. The vote of confidence will begin
     tomorrow and conclude late on Nov. 4, according to statements yesterday
     by House Speaker Filipos Petsalnikos.

     EU leaders carved out a second aid package for Greece at a summit in
     Brussels lasting into the early hours of Oct. 27, after Papandreou
     scraped together parliamentary approval for the second round of
     austerity measures in four months. Greece will receive 130 billion euros
     ($180 billion) in public funds plus a 50 percent writedown on Greek
     debt, following a fully taxpayer- funded package of 110 billion euros
     extended in May 2010.

     Venizelosa**s View

     a**I can no longer look at polls where the majority is against the
     agreement, the majority is against the program, but a majority is also
     in favor of staying in the euro,a** Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos
     said on Antenna TV after Papandreou announced his decision. A a**noa**
     vote at the referendum would lead to a**developmentsa** that the
     government would assess, Venizelos said.

     Papandreou, whose term ends in 2013, is seeking renewed support to push
     through measures including job cuts to turn around an economy that is
     set to shrink 5.5 percent this year. The program involves new taxes and
     cuts in spending to plug the EUa**s second-biggest budget gap.

     The state budget deficit widened to 19.2 billion euros in the January to
     end-September period from 16.7 billion euros a year earlier, according
     to an e-mailed statement from the Athens-based Finance Ministry
     yesterday.

     Opposition parties repeated their call for elections. Papandreoua**s
     plans are a**recklessa** and put Greecea**s EU membership at risk, lead
     opposition New Democracy party spokesman Yiannis Michelakis said.

     a**Dangerousa**

     Papandreou a**has tossed Greecea**s future in Europe in the air like a
     coin,a** Michelakis said in an e-mailed statement from NDa**s Athens
     offices yesterday. a**He is dangerous and must go. There is a solution:
     elections now. Ita**s the safest a**referendum.a**a**

     Papandreou now has just a three-seat majority in parliament and won
     approval for his latest austerity package amid protests that left one
     person dead. The budget measures prompted a near- rebellion in
     Papandreoua**s party and violence in the streets.

     The New Democracy party, led by Antonis Samaras, would win 22 percent of
     the vote in elections, with Papandreoua**s Pasok party receiving 14.7
     percent, and neither getting enough to form a majority in Parliament,
     according to the Kapa poll. More than 26 percent of voters said they
     were undecided on who to back. The margin of error is 3.09 percentage
     points.

     Separately, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association said
     that the euro-area proposals for Greek bonds appear to involve a**a
     voluntary exchange that would not be binding on all holders,a**
     according to an e-mailed statement.

     a**As such, it does not appear to be likely that the euro zone proposal
     will trigger payments under existing CDS contracts,a** the statement
     said. a**However, whether or not it does so will be decided by the
     Determinations Committee on the basis of specific facts, if a request is
     made to them.a**

     The ISDA statement late yesterday follows a review of whether the
     proposal would constitute a a**credit eventa** for holders of
     credit-default swaps linked to the securities.

     --With assistance from Jennifer Ryan in London and Antonis Galanopoulos
     in Athens. Editors: Digby Lidstone, Craig Stirling, Kevin Costelloe

     To contact the reporters responsible for this story: Maria Petrakis in
     Athens at mpetrakis@bloomberg.net; Natalie Weeks in Athens at
     nweeks2@bloomberg.net; Marcus Bensasson in Athens at
     mbensasson@bloomberg.net

     To contact the editor responsible for this story: Tim Quinson at
     tquinson@bloomberg.net

     Greek PM calls referendum on new EU aid deal
     http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/31/us-greece-referendum-idUSTRE79U5PQ20111031
     By Dina Kyriakidou and Harry Papachristou

     ATHENS | Mon Oct 31, 2011 6:50pm EDT

     (Reuters) - Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou called an unexpected
     referendum on Monday on the EU bailout deal for his debt-ridden country,
     a move that could necessitate a snap election if a public angry with
     swinging austerity measures rejects the deal.

     Pressured by his own lawmakers to share the heavy political burden of
     belt-tightening with other parties, Papandreou said he needed wider
     political support for the fiscal measures and structural reforms
     required by international lenders.

     "We trust citizens, we believe in their judgment, we believe in their
     decision," he told ruling Socialist party deputies. "In a few weeks the
     (EU) agreement will be a new loan contract... we must spell out if we
     are accepting it or if we are rejecting it."

     Analysts said holding a referendum was a baffling decision, given that
     the latest survey showed a majority of Greeks taking a negative view of
     the bailout deal.

     Opposition parties reacted angrily, accusing Papandreou of looking for a
     way out for his embattled party by dragging Greece, which has seen
     violent clashes between protesters and riot police, through a lengthy
     period of political instability.

     The euro extended losses against the dollar after the announcement,
     tumbling more than 2 percent to a session low.

     Papandreou, grappling with Greece's worst financial crisis in 40 years,
     had discussed holding a referendum but many people were shocked at the
     prospect of weary, disgruntled citizens being asked to decide whether to
     accept or reject the bailout.

     "Mr. Papandreou is dangerous, he tosses Greece's EU membership like a
     coin in the air," said conservative opposition New Democracy party
     spokesman Yannis Michelakis. "He cannot govern and instead of
     withdrawing honorably, he dynamites everything."

     New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras will visit President Karolos
     Papoulias on Tuesday to discuss developments and push for snap
     elections, party officials said.

     Weekend polls showed most Greeks took a negative view of the decision by
     euro zone leaders last week to hand cashed-strapped Athens a second,
     130-billion-euro bailout and a 50-percent write-down on its enormous
     debt to make it sustainable.

     "I never expected Papandreou to take such a dangerous and frivolous
     decision," said Dora Bakoyanni, former foreign minister and leader of
     the small center-right Democratic Alliance party. "Tomorrow all the
     international media will say that Greece itself is putting the EU deal
     at risk."

     Germany issued a statement saying the EU was working hard to put the
     second Greek aid package in place by the end of the year and had no
     comment on the referendum. EU leaders hammered out the deal last week,
     fearing the Greek debt crisis would speed to other euro zone countries
     and shake global markets.

     "If there was to be a referendum, we may reasonably conclude that they
     may not accept the austerity measures. We may conclude that it will
     bring the pack of cards tumbling down," said Howard Wheeldon, senior
     strategist at BGC Partners in London.

     Papandreou also said he would ask for a vote of confidence to secure
     support for his policy for the rest of his four-year term, which expires
     in 2013.

     Analysts said he was likely to win that, despite dissent among his
     parliamentary team. He was forced to expel a senior party member for
     voting against part of his latest austerity package and others warned
     him it was the last time they would vote for measures they did not
     believe in.

     Parliament officials said the confidence debate would begin on
     Wednesday, with a vote on Thursday or Friday.

     LEGALITY QUESTIONED

     Papandreou said the referendum would ask Greeks whether or not they
     agreed to the deal and would take place in a few weeks. Finance Minister
     Evangelos Venizelos told Greek TV it would probably be held early next
     year.

     But parliamentarians questioned its legality under the constitution,
     which does not allow referendums on economic issues, only on matters of
     great national importance.

     The last time Greeks held a referendum was in December 1974, when they
     voted to abolish the monarchy shortly after the collapse of a military
     dictatorship.

     "It's debatable whether the constitution allows such a referendum," said
     Fotis Kouvelis, leader of the small Democratic Left party. "The country
     must go to early elections. Given the situation, it's the most honorable
     solution."

     For a referendum result to be binding, there must be a minimum 40
     percent turnout on issues of "crucial national importance" and 50
     percent on a law that has already been voted on in parliament and
     "regulates a serious social issue," according to legislation enacted
     earlier this year. It was not clear which option the government would
     favor.

     "If the referendum answer is no, Papandreou has to resign," said Costas
     Panagopoulos, an analyst at polling firm Alco.

     "In the meantime what will happen with the decisions the EU took last
     week? I cannot understand what the prime minister wants to do. It could
     be the only way he has to leave the government, to share
     responsibility."

     Nearly 60 percent of Greeks view Thursday's EU summit agreement on the
     new bailout package as negative or probably negative, a survey showed on
     Saturday.

     Several lawmakers have defected from Papandreou's Socialist party over
     the packages of austerity measures enacted to qualify for bailout
     payments under last year's aid agreement, and the party trails in
     opinion polls.

     New Democracy is rising fast in opinion polls, but no party would win
     outright if polls were held now, leading to coalition governments or
     repeated elections.

     "The prime minister is obviously stuck in a dead end and he is leading
     the country down a very dangerous slope," said far right LAOS party MP
     Makis Voridis.

     Greek Vote Threatens Bailout
     Premier Calls for Surprise Referendum Days After European Leaders OK Aid
     Deal

         EUROPE NEWS
         NOVEMBER 1, 2011
      http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204394804577010091283798750.html
     By ALKMAN GRANITSAS, MARCUS WALKER and COSTAS PARIS

     ATHENSa**Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou stunned Europe by
     announcing a referendum on his country's latest bailouta**a high-stakes
     gamble that could undermine the international effort to preserve the
     euro.

     A "yes" vote in the referendum could deflate the massive street protests
     and strikes that threaten to paralyze Greece as it tries to enact a
     brutal austerity program to earn rescue loans from the euro zone and the
     International Monetary Fund.

     A "no" vote, however, could bring down the government and cut off
     international funding for Greece, leaving the country facing a financial
     meltdown. The government expects to hold the referendum in January.

     Some Greek government officials believe a defeat in the referendum could
     propel their country out of the euro zone. Many European policy makers
     fear that a messy Greek default could spark a financial-market panic
     that would particularly affect Italy, a major European economy that's
     already struggling to retain investors' trust.

     Mr. Papandreou's dramatic announcement, which he delivered late Monday
     in a speech to lawmakers, renders the outcome of Europe's debt crisis
     more uncertain than ever. It comes less than a week after euro-zone
     leaders agreed on a "comprehensive package" of measures to keep Greece
     afloat, reassure financial markets and stabilize the region. That
     agreement was supposed to ensure that Athens avoids a unilateral debt
     default, restructures its debts in cooperation with bondholders, and
     cuts its budget deficit further in return for a a*NOT130 billion ($180
     billion) bailout.

     With the fate of the deal in the lap of Greek voters, the euro crisis is
     likely to dominate this week's summit of the Group of 20 leading global
     economies in Cannes, France. For months, the U.S. government has been
     pressing Europe to resolve the two-year-old Greek debt crisis, which is
     undermining investor confidence in ever-growing swaths of the euro
     currency zone. The lingering uncertainty, in turn, has hurt confidence
     in global financial markets, and the looming referendum will only
     accentuate that.

     The announcement in Athens roiled financial markets late Monday, pushing
     the euro down 2.1% against the dollar to $1.3859, the European
     currency's biggest one-day slide in six months. Already-weak U.S. stocks
     sank further into the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its
     worst daily decline in a month, falling 276.10 points, or 2.26%, to
     11955.01. "Maybe the [Greek bailout] deal is in jeopardy," said Stephen
     Leuer, a floor trader at X-FA trading. "Any sort of doubt is definitely
     going to set us back," he said, adding that U.S. markets are "very
     sensitive" to news from Europe at present.

     Greece's embattled leader decided to go for a referendum as a way of
     shoring up support for the drastic government spending cuts and tax
     hikes that his country's parlous finances have forced him to enact,
     Greek officials say.

     Mr. Papandreou, who inherited a fiscal mess after winning election in
     2009 as head of a Socialist administration, has had to slash Greeks'
     cherished welfare entitlements to please the country's international
     creditors, in the face of opposition from labor unions and parts of his
     own party.

     Prime Minister George Papandreou announces a referendum on a debt deal.

     The mild-mannered, U.S.-born premier floated the idea of a referendum
     earlier this year as public hostility to austerity mounted, but he
     backed off amid fears that such a move would be destabilizing for Greece
     and for Europe.

     In recent weeks, however, public and parliamentary patience with
     austerity and an ever-deepening recession has stretched thin, weakening
     Mr. Papandreou's authority.

     The government needs a stronger democratic mandate to implement last
     week's bailout agreement with Europe and the IMF, Mr. Papandreou told a
     stunned audience of Socialist lawmakers on Monday. For that, he said,
     "we need to go to a referendum."

     The question put to voters will be simple, he said: "Do we want to adopt
     the new agreement? Or do we want to reject it?" The popular verdict
     would be binding, he added. "If the Greek people do not want it to be
     implemented, very simply it won't be implemented."

     What would happen next is anything but clear. A binding voter rejection
     of Europe's terms for a bailout would leave euro-zone leaders such as
     German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy
     with a bitter choice. Either they let Greece default on its a*NOT355
     billion of public debt, risking panic throughout Europe's
     government-bond markets and banking sectors; or they cave in and offer
     Greece more generous bailout terms.

     Relaxing Greece's bailout terms would anger voters in Germany and other
     countries who are already resentful of having to subsidize Greece, a
     country that is widely viewed in Europe as having lived beyond its means
     for years. It could also prompt other recipients of rescue
     loansa**Ireland and Portugala**to demand similarly generous treatment.
     That, in turn, would test both the political tolerance and the financial
     wherewithal of Europe's core economies to support weaker euro nations.

     A Greek referendum on its bailout, for the first time in the two-year
     crisis, would put what many Greeks view as draconian spending cuts
     demanded by Athens' international creditors to a democratic test. The
     result of the vote could reverberate around the euro zone, putting
     pressure on governments in other European countries that are enacting
     austerity measures to stem the debt crisis to ask for their voters'
     consent.

     Opinion polls suggest Mr. Papandreou faces a struggle to convince an
     increasingly angry electorate. A survey published at the weekend showed
     that 58.9% of Greeks oppose last week's European deal; there are fears
     that the planned debt restructuring will bring further pain while
     yielding few benefits for the country.

     The poll, the first since last week's bailout deal was struck, showed
     that some 54.2% of Greeks thought a national referendum should be called
     to approve the new aid deal, while only 40% thought Parliament should
     decide.

     However, Mr. Papandreou is betting that voters may approve the bailout
     package if they are forced to confront the alternative of national
     bankruptcy and a possible exit from the euro.

     Some Greek officials say the referendum question could be worded in such
     a way that voters see it as a matter of Greece's continued euro
     membership. The recent opinion poll showed 72.5% of Greeks want to stay
     in the euro zone. "The actual meaning of the referendum is a choice
     between the euro and the drachma," the traditional Greek currency, a
     senior Socialist official said.

     In a bid to shore up flagging support within his own party, Mr.
     Papandreou also called for a fresh vote of confidence in his
     governmenta**just months after narrowly winning such a vote in June.

     On 10/31/11 2:22 PM, Michael Wilson wrote:

       vote of confidence and the referendum are two separate things, not
       attached. He has already employed the vote of confidence before and
       presumably could get it again. This is why it was so important last
       week or so when the MP resigned both party and seat so PASOK could put
       someone in who was indebted to the party

       The referendum is what im not sure he could win. Also will be
       interesting to see which comes first

       On 10/31/11 2:15 PM, Kristen Cooper wrote:

         Well, if it has a confidence vote attached to it and fails,
         Papandreou wouldn't necessarily be the one the EU is negotiating
         with. There are a couple different aspects here, but I don't think
         this was a move to negotiate a better deal with the EU. This is as
         about as good as deal as they could possibly hope for.

         I think with a referendum, he's essentially calling the public out -
         "Look, this is the deal I got. Take it or leave it." If its
         approved, then you undermine the legitimacy of the people striking
         and protesting over the deal. If if it fails - along with an
         attached confidence vote - fails, then that means somebody else has
         to come up with a concrete alternative to the plan - which no one
         has credibly come forth with yet.

         On 10/31/11 2:45 PM, Michael Wilson wrote:

           Remember that in September there were reports (subsequently
           denied) that they would hold a referendum on the Euro. This is
           just a referendum on the new EU aid deal, but I imagine will serve
           a similar political role

           If it gets approved he has legitimacy. If it doesnt he can better
           negotiate with EU I guess. Scary to think what happens if its not
           approved...

           Greece says not considering referendum on euro

            http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/20/greece-referendum-idUSA8E7JO01720110920

           ATHENS, Sept 20 | Tue Sep 20, 2011 3:41am EDT

           (Reuters) - Greece denied a report on Tuesday that it was
           considering holding a referendum on the country's membership in
           the euro zone.

           Kathimerini daily wrote on Tuesday, citing unnamed sources, that
           Prime Minister George Papandreou was considering calling for a
           referendum on whether Greece should continue to tackle its debt
           crisis within the euro zone or by exiting the single currency.

           The government has long said it was planning a referendum on
           political reforms but has repeatedly denied that it would concern
           the country's euro membership.

           Asked if the referendum would be about staying in the euro zone,
           deputy government spokesman Angelos Tolkas said: "No. We haven't
           discussed such an issue, definitely not."

           He said the government had put to parliament on Monday a bill
           aimed at allowing the country to hold referenda but without
           specifying any issue.

           "Yesterday we tabled a bill about referenda ... but we have not
           discussed anything more than holding a referendum." (Reporting by
           Angeliki Koutantou; writing by Ingrid Melander; editing by Michael
           Winfrey)

           Greece may hold referendum on euro zone membership: report

              
           http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/20/us-greece-referendum-idUSTRE78J07W20110920
           Mon Sep 19, 2011 8:57pm EDT

           (Reuters) - Greece may hold a voter referendum on euro zone
           membership as a way to strengthen the government's hand in dealing
           with the debt crisis within the euro zone or by exiting the single
           currency, the Kathimerini English language newspaper reported on
           its website on Tuesday.

           Prime Minister George Papandreou is considering calling for the
           referendum as pressure has mounted from all sides with Greece's
           foreign creditors pushing for quicker budget cuts, while
           large-scale citizen street protests against austerity are held
           almost daily, the newspaper said, citing unnamed sources.

           A bill to be submitted in parliament, paving the way for a
           referendum, is to be discussed in the coming days, the newspaper
           added.

           For the newspaper website, see: www.ekathimerini.com

           Papandreou had earlier resisted any referendum, but now thinks
           such a vote could bring a fresh mandate for his Socialist
           government to continue with an austerity drive backed by Greece's
           international lenders, the newspaper said.

           The cabinet is reportedly split, with several ministers calling
           for drastic action including early elections at an emergency
           meeting on Sunday, the newspaper said, while others want to avoid
           a referendum or new polls.

           (Writing by Ed Layne in Singapore; Editing by Yoko Nishikawa)

           On 10/31/11 1:34 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

             Greece to hold referendum on new debt deal

             (AP) a** 10 minutes ago
             http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jKv9sosbqxb_nvPl5iOA50fQfTkQ?docId=630021ce8f5d4b55b858d29d616e23c4
             ATHENS, Greece (AP) a** Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou
             says his country will hold a referendum on a new European debt
             deal reached last week.

             Papandreou gave no date on other details of proposed referendum
             on the deal that aims to seek 50 percent losses for private
             holders of Greek bonds and provide the troubled eurozone member
             with euro100 billion ($140 billion) in additional rescue loans.

             Papandreou, addressing Socialist members of parliament Monday,
             also said he would seek a vote of confidence in parliament.

             His Socialist government has seen its majority reduced to just
             three seats in parliament and its approval ratings plummet amid
             harsh austerity measures that are likely to send the country
             into a fourth year of recession in 2012.

             Papandreou calls for referendum in Greece
             Mon, Oct 31 2011, 18:18 GMT | FXstreet.com
             http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=5ede6cce-fa68-4d8a-a580-14808203a3ad

             FXstreet.com (CA^3rdoba) a** The Prime Minister of Greece,
             George Papandreou called for a referendum to ask whether to
             accept the new bailout or not. He said he will call for a vote
             of confidence and rejected elections.

             It was reported also that the PM mentioned that the government
             may need to nationalize some banks in order to recapitalized
             them. After a period of time the banks would be privatized.

             Papandreou Says EU Decisions Will Relieve Greece of Debt Burden
             October 31, 2011, 1:43 PM EDT
             http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-31/papandreou-says-eu-decisions-will-relieve-greece-of-debt-burden.html

             Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou
             said the country had secured a a**historic decisiona** at last
             weeka**s summit of European Union leaders that will allow Greece
             to a**look to our futurea** with less uncertainty.

             a**The EU summit decisions open up a new era for Europe and a
             new era for Greece,a** Papandreou said in comments to ruling
             party lawmakers in Athens televised on state-run Vouli TV today.
             The decisions taken by EU leaders early on Oct. 27 will reduce
             Greecea**s debt by about 100 billion euros, Papandreou said.

             To contact the reporter on this story: Marcus Bensasson in
             Athens at mbensasson@bloomberg.net

             Papandreou Says Greek Elections to be Held in 2013 as Scheduled
             October 31, 2011, 1:55 PM EDT
             http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-31/papandreou-says-greek-elections-to-be-held-in-2013-as-scheduled.html

             Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou
             said his government faced a challenge to exploit the window of
             opportunity provided by the decisions taken last week by
             European Union leaders on a second financing package for the
             country.

             Papandreou said the priority was to a**lock ina** the decisions
             of the summit. He said elections would be held as scheduled in
             2013. He spoke in Athens in comments televised live on state-run
             Vouli TV.

             On 10/31/11 1:22 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

               Greece to call referendum on new EU aid deal

               http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/31/us-greece-referendum-idUSTRE79U5PQ20111031

               ATHENS | Mon Oct 31, 2011 2:09pm EDT
               (Reuters) - The Greek government will hold a referendum on a
               new EU aid package, calling on voters to say whether they want
               to adopt it or not, Prime Minister George Papandreou said on
               Monday.

               "We trust citizens, we believe in their judgment, we believe
               in their decision," he told ruling socialist party lawmakers.

               Nearly 60 percent of Greeks view Thursday's EU summit
               agreement on a new 130 billion euro bailout package as
               negative or probably negative, a survey showed on Saturday.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-01 03:06:32</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/170037_re-more-g3-b3-greece-greece-to-call-referendum-on-new-eu-aid.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zeihan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>170052</id>
    <title>EIU Reports Turkey and India
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-10-31 20:10:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/170052_eiu-reports-turkey-and-india-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>colleen.farish@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/14/14010_EIU Turkey Report Nov 2011.pdf</path><size>865111</size><md5></md5><sha1>45836dac5e3d197cdb485ee247d251d13d9b27d4</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/14/14011_EIU India Report Nov 2011.pdf</path><size>682584</size><md5></md5><sha1>d2f205e961eec90509a19c9ec43fa318e9cd7f7d</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/14/14012_EIU Turkey Country Profile.pdf</path><size>911445</size><md5></md5><sha1>e3f339e37493334d1608b462bd33e7235dbc3cfc</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/14/14013_EIU India Country Profile.pdf</path><size>714653</size><md5></md5><sha1>209d25a7ef8280085e2e569453ea5e5dfba1de27</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>170561</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT - GREECE - nat gas/oil producer;
	dollar bloc? - OCH007
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE: OCH007
   ATTRIBUTION: Old China Hand
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Well connected financial source
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: I really can't judge this one.  I know he is well
   connected in general but also speaks to some crackpots as well.
   SPECIAL HANDLING: none
   SOURCE HANDLER: Meredith/Jen

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-04 19:50:37</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/170561_-alpha-insight-greece-nat-gas-oil-producer-dollar-bloc.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/14/14029_msg-21776-22574.png</path><size>96953</size><md5></md5><sha1>eb3e1fdb439748d0fcd3d1f1b08168dec546f4d3</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/14/14030_msg-21776-22575.png</path><size>27470</size><md5></md5><sha1>61f3f442fb007965179200bfc3a6586e3be91c29</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>170773</id>
    <title>Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta conflict in
	context
</title>
    <description>   He has long been pegged as a Zeta supporter in the Mexican Media and even
   the LA Times. There are videos all over Youtube that say he's a crook.
    
   From: Marko Primorac &lt;marko.primorac@stratfor.com&gt;
   Reply-To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Tue, 1 Nov 2011 17:25:49 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict in context
   Great stuff -- I guess one thing you may want to maybe that no legal
   action has been taken against Rosario Torres to date over the Anonymous
   posting.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Matt Mawhinney" &lt;matt.mawhinney@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 5:16:18 PM
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict        in context

   One comment in blue. 

   On 11/1/11 4:51 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     also i don't think widget is the appropriate term - script maybe?
     protocol? kevin might actually know the technical term.

     On 11/1/11 4:48 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

       I think it might be good to mention what was said in the dispatch
       discussion: that this is a brand new type of cyber attack against
       cartels, exposing rather than intel collection and disruption, which
       is what government agencies do.

       On 11/1/11 1:11 PM, scott stewart wrote:

          Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta Conflict in Context

         On Oct. 31, the online activist collective Anonymous posted a
         message to the internet  in which it stated that it was continuing
         with its campaign against the Mexican criminal cartels and their
         governmentsupporters despite the inherent danger.

          

         The messageurged inexperienced activists who might not be practicing
         proper online security measures to abstain from participating. It
         also urged individuals associated with Anonymous to not conduct
         physical pamphlet drops, participate in protests, wear or purchase
         Guy Fawkes masks, or use Guy Fawkes imagery in their internet or
         physical world activities.  Guy Fawkes was British Catholic
         conspirator who was involved in a plot to bomb the British
         Parliament in 1605, and who has become somewhat of an Anarchist icon
         in the United Kingdom. The British celebrate Guy Fawkes Day each
         year on Nov. 5, and the day has special meaning for the anarchists. 
         Not incorrect but the use of the Guy Fawkes mask as the face of Anon
         stems from the graphic novel and subsequent Hollywood movie V for
         Vendetta.

          

         It is not coincidental then, that in their Oct. 6 video, Anonymous
         set Nov. 5 as the deadline for Los Zetas to release the Anonymous
         associate who was allegedly kidnapped in Veracruz by Los Zetas. The
         Anonymous associate was reportedly abducted during an Anonymous
         leaflet campaign called Operation Paperstorm.

          

         The Oct. 31message acknowledged that the operation against Los
         Zetas, dubbed "# OpCartel" I am not sure if the hashtag is not just
         the twitter handle, should be checked is dangerous and noted that
         the collective would be assembling a hand-picked group of known and
         trusted associates to participate in a special task force to execute
         the operation. It asked supporters to use a software widget they had
         developed in order to anonymously pass information pertaining to
         drug trafficking to the task force, which will then distribute it. 

          

         With Nov. 5, approaching, and at least some elements of Anonymous
         not backing down on their threats to Los Zetas, we thought it would
         be useful to provide some context to the present conflict between
         Anonymous and Los Zetas and to also address some of its potential
         implications.

          

         Context

          

         First it issignificant to understand that the epicenter of this
         event is Veracruz, which  has been a very busy place over the past
         few months in terms of Mexico's cartel wars. The port city also
         serves as a critical transportation hub for the narcotics smuggling
         activities of the Los Zetas cartel. Because of this, Stratfor has
         identified Veracruz as [link
         http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111024-mexican-drug-war-update-polarization-continues
         ] a bellweather city thatwill help determine the trajectory of the
         Los Zetas cartel in the coming months. 

          

         One of the big recent developments in Veracruz was the Sinaloa
         cartel's push into the Zeta stronghold using the [link
         http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110928-mexico-security-memo-zetas-defensive-veracruz
         ] Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), which using the name
         Matazetas (Zeta killers) conducted some high-profile body dumps of
         over 50 alleged low-level Zeta operatives on Sept. 20 and 22.  On
         Oct. 25, Mexican Marines arrested Carlos Arturo Pitalua-Carillo, "El
         Bam Bam," who was Los Zetas plaza boss in Veracruz.  This means that
         in Veracruz at the present time, Los Zetas are feeling pressure from
         both the Government of Mexico and the CJNG.

          

         Into this dynamic flow, we had the Anonymous internet collective
         begin to take action in Veracruz in August. In response to what
         Anonymous saw as the state of Veracruz supporting the Los Zetas
         cartel, they launched Operation Paperstorm, in which activists
         associated with the Anonymous collective distributed leaflets
         throughout Veracruz claiming the state government supports Los
         Zetas.  They conducted major leaflet distributions on Aug. 13, 20,
         and 29. They also released videos to the internet on Aug. 26 and 29,
         condemning the State of Veracruz. (According to the Oct. 6 Anonymous
         video, Los Zetas allegedly kidnapped one of the activists involved
         in Operation Paperstorm.)

          

         Activities outside of Veracruz have also played a part in setting
         the stage. On Sept. 13, two people were tortured and killed and
         their bodies hung from a pedestrianoverpass in Nuevo Laredo,
         Tamaulipas state.  Signs left with the bodies signified that Los
         Zetas had killed the pair because they had posted information
         pertaining to Los Zetas on blogs that specialize in reporting on the
         Mexican cartels. On Sept 26, the body of Marisol Macias Casteneda
         was found beheaded in a park in Nuevo Laredo.   Macias who worked
         for a local newspaper allegedly posted on cartel blogs using the
         nickname "Laredo Girl." A message found with her body noted that she
         was killed by Los Zetas due to her online activities.

          

         Following the death of Laredo Girl, Anonymous claimed responsibility
         for a distributed denial of service (DDOS) attack conducted against
         the official website of the state of Veracruz. Although she was
         killed by Los Zetas in Nuevo Laredo Tamaulipas, Anonymous said their
         attack on the Veracruz state website was because of the death of
         Laredo Girl.

          

         It is also important to recognize that Anonymous was also unhappy
         with the State of Veracruz over the decision of the state to
         prosecute two individuals who had posted false kidnapping reports on
         Twitter on Aug. 25. The false reports alleged that a group of
         children had been abducted from a Veracruz school and the panic
         caused by the report allegedly resulted in some two dozen traffic
         accidents as terrified parents rushed to the school to check o n
         their children. The so-called "twitter terrorists" were initially
         charged with offenses that could have carried a 30-year sentence.
         Anonymous, which has absolute freedom of speech on the internet as
         one of its foundational principles, took umbrage with this stiff
         penalty for the Twitter case - especially because it stood in stark
         contrast with the impunity many cartel figures enjoy in Mexico. 

          

          

         Following the Oct. 6 release of the video in which Anonymous
         threatened Los Zetas if they did not release the kidnapped anonymous
         activist, Stratfor began to focus on the story, and in light of the
         approaching Nov. 5 deadline, decided to publish an, [link
         http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111028-mexicos-cartels-draw-online-activists-ire
         ] analysis of the topic, which was released on Oct. 28.  

          

         Following the release of our analysis, the topic has received a
         great deal of media coverage. This publicity has generated a very
         interesting response from Anonymous -- one that emphasizes the fast
         that it is a collective of people and not an organization.  As some
         Anonymousactivists were backing off the issue, erasing online user
         accounts, suggesting that the operation against Los Zetas had been a
         hoax and claiming that no activist had been kidnapped, other
         activists suggested that the campaign should be suspended. Still
         other activists became more strident and determined in their posts,
         urging that the campaign continue. Since Anonymous is a collective,
         activists can pick and choose which actions they will participate
         in. that means in his case that those activists who want to refrain
         from the campaign will and those who want to participate will
         continue it.

          

         This will to continue was manifested on Oct. 29, the personal
         website of Gustavo RosarioTorres, the former attorney general of the
         Mexican state of Tobasco was hacked and defaced with a message from
         Anonymous Mexico stating that Rosario was aZeta -  It was also
         reflected in the tone of the Oct. 31 message. Some activists
         associated with Anonymous clearly feel compelled to continue with
         the campaign due to the outpouring of public support they received
         in the wake of the media coverage. According to the Oct 31. Video
         statement:

          

         "we received many expressions of support and solidarity as well as
         the voices of people crying for help. We must remember that we are
         on the side of the people, and we cannot let down the people,
         especially in critical moments like the one they currently live in."

          

         We therefore anticipate that some Anonymous activists will continue
         the campaign. We also believe that Los Zetas will respond.

          

         Revenge of the Sith (Yes Kamran, I agree with Isa that Star Wars is
         better than Star Trek)  Star Wars III-IV are, the rest don't exist
         in my book.

          

         The variouscartel groups in Mexico have long used the internet as a
         place to trumpet their triumphs on the battlefield and to taunt and
         even degrade their enemies. The cartels have posted videos of them
         torturing, executing and beheading members of opposing cartels. They
         also frequently monitor narco blogs and sometimeseven post on them. 
         As demonstrated by the blogger killings in Nuevo Laredo in
         September, Los Zetas appear to possess at least some rudimentary
         capability to trace online activity to people in thephysical world.
         It is not known if they employ their own team of dedicated cyber
         experts or if they rely on sources within the Mexican government -
         although the most likely answer is probably a little of both. 

          

          

         In past Anonymous actions, like the Dec. 2010 attack against Pay Pal
         following the Wikileaks case, governments in the U.S. and the UK
         have arrested numerous individuals associated with Anonymous who
         allegedly participated in the attack. In June 2011, Turkey arrested
         dozens of activists associated with Anonymousactions conducted
         against the Turkish government for its efforts to establish a
         national internet filtering system.

          

         Los Zetas, like the other Mexican cartels, do not take affronts
         lightly. Even if Anonymous is not able to provide information that
         will damage Los Zetas smuggling operations, the very fact that this
         group has decided to challenge Los Zetas publicly will result in
         some sort of response. The big question is: do theypossess the
         capability to effectively trace the organizers of the
         Anonymousaction against them?

          

         One problem with an entity such as Anonymous is that it is
         intentionally amorphous - it is also as transnational as the
         internet, and it would not be surprising if many of those chosen to
         participate in the operation against Los Zetas are located outside
         of Mexico in locations such as the U.S. and Europe which are outside
         the immediate reach of Los Zetas.

          

         But the amorphous nature of Anonymous can also cut the other way. 
         If Los Zetas pick up and execute some random patrons from an
         internet cafe, behead them and place Guy Fawkesmasks on their heads,
         it will be very difficult to prove that they were not  associated
         with  Anonymous.  As Anonymous noted in their Oct. 31 video, this is
         dangerous business.

          

          

         The Big Picture

          

         One thing to watch as the Anonymous operation continues is the way
         in which the Mexican public reacts. Many people in the Mexican
         middle and upper classes have been deeply affected by the criminal
         cartels and theviolence the practice. We talk to many people in
         Mexico who are fearful of being kidnapped. In many communities,
         especially places like Juarez, Torreon, Monterrey and Veracruz,
         businessmen are being caught in a terrible bind. On one hand, they
         are receiving ever-increasing extortion demands from the cartels,
         while at the same time their business revenues are dwindling because
         people are afraid to go out due to the violence associated with
         those same cartels. This is forcing many businessmen out of
         business. It is also creating a great deal of frustration and
         resentment.

          

         At the same time, Mexico has become one of the most dangerous
         countries in the world for journalists, and many media companies
         practice heavy self-censorship to protect themselves. In the wake of
         the September blogger killings some of the narco blogs, like Blog
         del Narco, have also exhibited strong signs of fear inspired
         self-censorship.   This means that the legitimate press is not able
         to be of any real aid to the Mexican people.

          

         Mexican citizens are also frustrated with their government, which is
         well-known for corruption.  This is the sentiment feeding Anonymous'
         original campaign in Veracruz.  This frustration has lead some
         people to begin to talk about

         vigilante groups to fight the cartels - though that has been
         attempted before in Mexico and as we saw in the case of [link
         http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090714_mexico_la_familia_michoacana_expands_its_attacks
         ] La Familia MichoacA!n, which originally began as such a vigilante
         group, vigilantism frequently does not end well.

          

         This is where Anonymous may fit in. With Mexican citizens unable to
         rely on their government, the media or even armed vigilante groups
         for assistance, they may embrace Anonymous and come to view its form
         of cyber vigilantism as an outlet for their frustration -- and a
         safe way to pass oninformation pertaining to cartel activities.  If
         this occurs, we may see people not just in Veracruz and other Zeta
         controlled areas providing information to Anonymous, but citizens
         from all over the country.

          

         Also, in the same way that cartels leak information togovernments in
         an effort to use them as weapons against their rivals, we could also
         very well see groups such as the Sinaloa cartel provide information
         on Los Zetas to Anonymous. This of course would provide even more
         reason for Los Zetas to strike out against the activist collective.
         Eventually Anonymous could turn their sites on the other cartels. I
         wonder if the other cartels are thinking of Anonymous more as a
         potential threat/annoyance or a way to weaken the Zetas. Probably  a
         little bit of both at this point.

          

         If the Anonymous information campaign does indeed take off, and if
         Anonymous is attacked by Los Zetas, the activists could resort to
         releasing sensitive information to the U.S. Drug Enforcement
         Administration in an attempt to damage Los Zetas. This would be an
         incredible irony in light of the way Anonymous has viewed itself as
         an opponent of the U.S. government in cases like Wikileaks. 

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Matt Mawhinney
 ADP
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: 512.744.4300 A| M: 267.972.2609 A| F: 512.744.4334
 www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-02 01:51:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/170773_re-s-weekly-for-comment-placing-the-anonymous-vs-zeta.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>170777</id>
    <title>Re: G3/B3* - GREECE - Papa speech: rejects snap elections,
	doesn't resign	and still defends referendum
</title>
    <description>   Its not whether or not its a good idea. Its whether any government can
   govern if it capitulates to the eu without a referendum. When the cost
   hits home and there was neither an election nor a referendum the public
   could destroy the political elite and make greece ungovernable.

   This is an agonizing deal for the public. Papa is desperately searching
   for a way to get the public buy in without suspension of aid by the eu.

   He is in a terrible spot and I see no exit for him. He will be crushed by
   default now or by an enraged public in a few weeks.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 4 Nov 2011 19:03:46 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: G3/B3* - GREECE - Papa speech: rejects snap elections,
   doesn't resign and still defends referendum
   But the original point is that he maintains the referendum was a good
   idea... for him. No contest on it being irrelevant at this point.

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Nov 4, 2011, at 19:01, Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   wrote:

     I don't think the referendum idea came from extraneous forces but was a
     misguided attempt to discharge responsibility. As you said, the
     pressures on P are EU and domestic, the referendum came from neither.
     Therefore, id there is one thing he knows he will do it's NOT having a
     referendum.

     Sent from my iPhone
     On Nov 4, 2011, at 18:56, "George Friedman"
     &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt; wrote:

       He doesn't know what he will do. He is riding the tiger caught between
       the eu leadership and the public. Pay no attention to what he wants
       and pay attention to the forces on him. We've seen him whirling like a
       dervish for days.

       Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
       Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
       Date: Fri, 4 Nov 2011 18:43:56 -0500 (CDT)
       To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
       ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
       Subject: Re: G3/B3* - GREECE - Papa speech: rejects snap elections,
       doesn't resign and still defends referendum
       If Peter meant that Papa still thinks the referendum was the best idea
       I agree with him. If he means papa is still thinking of doing it in
       the future I'm with Kristen.
       Sent from my iPhone
       On Nov 4, 2011, at 17:58, Kristen Cooper &lt;kristen.cooper@stratfor.com&gt;
       wrote:

         I don't think that is what he said. He spent most the time
         explaining why he called it in the first place but not still having
         it.

         Kristen Cooper
         512.619.9414
         On Nov 4, 2011, at 18:53, Peter Zeihan &lt;zeihan@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

           I mean papa is still saying that's his plan

           On Nov 4, 2011, at 5:41 PM, Kristen Cooper
           &lt;kristen.cooper@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

             I really don't think the referendum is still on. He gave that up
             awhile ago. There is NO way he would win a confidence vote if
             people thought he was still going to call a referendum
             On Nov 4, 2011, at 6:23 PM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

               Still on the referendum
               Awesome
               On Nov 4, 2011, at 5:10 PM, Marc Lanthemann
               &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

                 nothing exciting or historic

                 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8846201/Debt-crisis-live.html

                 21.58 Papandreou closes his speech, rejecting talk of snap
                 elections:

                 We need to be level-headed. We are managing a crisis. We
                 need to strengthen democratic institutions or we will wound
                 democracy. We must be organised and Greece must be governed
                 without interuption. We require level-headedness, not
                 frenzy. Political parties which are going to be
                 collaborating cannot be a government on a status quo that is
                 dying.

                 What i want is to operate for today and tomorrow but not for
                 yesterday. Let's go for the citizens of Greece, for a
                 country that can be proud and dignified. I want to remind
                 foreign leaders that they should have belief in the Greek
                 people. This country is made of hard stuff and the country
                 does what it is meant to do.

                 I ask for a vote of confidence so our country has a
                 government to take necessary steps of security over the next
                 few months. The country supercedes all of us. United, we can
                 go forward.

                 21.43 More humble talk from Mr Papandreou:
                 I did not see politics as profession. I can contribute to
                 general good. When I am under criticism i want to send a
                 clear message, I hope my actions can bring about a different
                 culture in political life of the country and media and
                 citizens.

                 21.41 He opens the door for a coalition government to be
                 formed.

                 21.40 Mr Papandreou insists he is not "clinging to power".
                 He says he is not interested in that. The floor claps.

                 21.37 More from Mr Papandreou:

                 I broke a taboo with the referendum [...] Going against the
                 norm was for the benefit of Greece. We do have differences,
                 but we also see priorities of countries and these can best
                 be served with collaborations.
                 A transitional government would mean catastrophe. This
                 should not happen. Snap elections would mean the bail-out
                 would be up in the air.

                 21.35 He says early elections would be a "catastrophe".

                 21.29 Mr Papandreou continues:
                 It is in the interest of the Greek nation, this bailout. I
                 am curious how all oppositions oppose this. What did they
                 fear? Rejection by greek people of bailout?
                 [The referendum] was a democratic decision which shook the
                 markets.
                 But we the Greek nation exists which finally must decide.
                 Many on the right and on the left said we were bothering our
                 partners, and therefore there was hypocracy abound.
                 [So] yes financial markets exist, but first of all people
                 exist.

                 21.17 Mr Papandreou asks Parliament for greater
                 collaboration and cooperation. He says:
                 The bailout allows us to write-off a large part of our debt
                 in the next few months [it] permits us to give the energy to
                 build a Greece of growth.

                 Greek people, There is no problem with your deposits in the
                 banks because of the bailout. They are even more guaranteed
                 with us in the eurozone.

                 [...] This bailout is tremendous opportunity to rebuild
                 country on new foundations.

                 Papandreou steps up to address the Greek parliament on
                 Fridsy (Photo: AP)

                 21.12 There are shades of the British Commons as George
                 Papandreou finally takes the mic. He blames the previous
                 government for multiplying the debt and the a**tragic
                 mistakesa** that have been made. He adds:
                 We are living through a new trial, and some of us wish to
                 forget what has happened in the past.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-05 01:09:25</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/170777_re-g3-b3-greece-papa-speech-rejects-snap-elections-doesn-t.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>170819</id>
    <title>Re: G3/B3* - GREECE - Papa speech: rejects snap elections,
	doesn't resign	and still defends referendum
</title>
    <description>   But then why didn't we see a more widespread public support for the
   referendum? If anything the Greeks were relieved to not have to vote on
   the issue. 
   To expand on a popular metaphor from the FT, the Greeks know they're sick,
   don't want the medicine but also no one  wants to be the one to refuse it.
   Agree that P is screwed anyway.
   Sent from my iPhone
   On Nov 4, 2011, at 19:09, "George Friedman" &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;
   wrote:

     Its not whether or not its a good idea. Its whether any government can
     govern if it capitulates to the eu without a referendum. When the cost
     hits home and there was neither an election nor a referendum the public
     could destroy the political elite and make greece ungovernable.

     This is an agonizing deal for the public. Papa is desperately searching
     for a way to get the public buy in without suspension of aid by the eu.

     He is in a terrible spot and I see no exit for him. He will be crushed
     by default now or by an enraged public in a few weeks.

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 4 Nov 2011 19:03:46 -0500 (CDT)
     To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: G3/B3* - GREECE - Papa speech: rejects snap elections,
     doesn't resign and still defends referendum
     But the original point is that he maintains the referendum was a good
     idea... for him. No contest on it being irrelevant at this point.

     Sent from my iPhone
     On Nov 4, 2011, at 19:01, Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
     wrote:

       I don't think the referendum idea came from extraneous forces but was
       a misguided attempt to discharge responsibility. As you said, the
       pressures on P are EU and domestic, the referendum came from neither.
       Therefore, id there is one thing he knows he will do it's NOT having a
       referendum.

       Sent from my iPhone
       On Nov 4, 2011, at 18:56, "George Friedman"
       &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt; wrote:

         He doesn't know what he will do. He is riding the tiger caught
         between the eu leadership and the public. Pay no attention to what
         he wants and pay attention to the forces on him. We've seen him
         whirling like a dervish for days.

         Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
         Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
         Date: Fri, 4 Nov 2011 18:43:56 -0500 (CDT)
         To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
         ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
         Subject: Re: G3/B3* - GREECE - Papa speech: rejects snap elections,
         doesn't resign and still defends referendum
         If Peter meant that Papa still thinks the referendum was the best
         idea I agree with him. If he means papa is still thinking of doing
         it in the future I'm with Kristen.
         Sent from my iPhone
         On Nov 4, 2011, at 17:58, Kristen Cooper
         &lt;kristen.cooper@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

           I don't think that is what he said. He spent most the time
           explaining why he called it in the first place but not still
           having it.

           Kristen Cooper
           512.619.9414
           On Nov 4, 2011, at 18:53, Peter Zeihan &lt;zeihan@stratfor.com&gt;
           wrote:

             I mean papa is still saying that's his plan

             On Nov 4, 2011, at 5:41 PM, Kristen Cooper
             &lt;kristen.cooper@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

               I really don't think the referendum is still on. He gave that
               up awhile ago. There is NO way he would win a confidence vote
               if people thought he was still going to call a referendum
               On Nov 4, 2011, at 6:23 PM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

                 Still on the referendum
                 Awesome
                 On Nov 4, 2011, at 5:10 PM, Marc Lanthemann
                 &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

                   nothing exciting or historic

                   http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8846201/Debt-crisis-live.html

                   21.58 Papandreou closes his speech, rejecting talk of snap
                   elections:

                   We need to be level-headed. We are managing a crisis. We
                   need to strengthen democratic institutions or we will
                   wound democracy. We must be organised and Greece must be
                   governed without interuption. We require level-headedness,
                   not frenzy. Political parties which are going to be
                   collaborating cannot be a government on a status quo that
                   is dying.

                   What i want is to operate for today and tomorrow but not
                   for yesterday. Let's go for the citizens of Greece, for a
                   country that can be proud and dignified. I want to remind
                   foreign leaders that they should have belief in the Greek
                   people. This country is made of hard stuff and the country
                   does what it is meant to do.

                   I ask for a vote of confidence so our country has a
                   government to take necessary steps of security over the
                   next few months. The country supercedes all of us. United,
                   we can go forward.

                   21.43 More humble talk from Mr Papandreou:
                   I did not see politics as profession. I can contribute to
                   general good. When I am under criticism i want to send a
                   clear message, I hope my actions can bring about a
                   different culture in political life of the country and
                   media and citizens.

                   21.41 He opens the door for a coalition government to be
                   formed.

                   21.40 Mr Papandreou insists he is not "clinging to power".
                   He says he is not interested in that. The floor claps.

                   21.37 More from Mr Papandreou:

                   I broke a taboo with the referendum [...] Going against
                   the norm was for the benefit of Greece. We do have
                   differences, but we also see priorities of countries and
                   these can best be served with collaborations.
                   A transitional government would mean catastrophe. This
                   should not happen. Snap elections would mean the bail-out
                   would be up in the air.

                   21.35 He says early elections would be a "catastrophe".

                   21.29 Mr Papandreou continues:
                   It is in the interest of the Greek nation, this bailout. I
                   am curious how all oppositions oppose this. What did they
                   fear? Rejection by greek people of bailout?
                   [The referendum] was a democratic decision which shook the
                   markets.
                   But we the Greek nation exists which finally must decide.
                   Many on the right and on the left said we were bothering
                   our partners, and therefore there was hypocracy abound.
                   [So] yes financial markets exist, but first of all people
                   exist.

                   21.17 Mr Papandreou asks Parliament for greater
                   collaboration and cooperation. He says:
                   The bailout allows us to write-off a large part of our
                   debt in the next few months [it] permits us to give the
                   energy to build a Greece of growth.

                   Greek people, There is no problem with your deposits in
                   the banks because of the bailout. They are even more
                   guaranteed with us in the eurozone.

                   [...] This bailout is tremendous opportunity to rebuild
                   country on new foundations.

                   Papandreou steps up to address the Greek parliament on
                   Fridsy (Photo: AP)

                   21.12 There are shades of the British Commons as George
                   Papandreou finally takes the mic. He blames the previous
                   government for multiplying the debt and the a**tragic
                   mistakesa** that have been made. He adds:
                   We are living through a new trial, and some of us wish to
                   forget what has happened in the past.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-05 01:20:12</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/170819_re-g3-b3-greece-papa-speech-rejects-snap-elections-doesn-t.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>171808</id>
    <title>Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta conflict
	in context
</title>
    <description>   Just to build on my last comment - and I think this should be included in
   the piece - the cartels could just as easily try to intimidate would be
   sources ratting to anonymous as intimidate bloggers. Imagine if, after
   anonymous publishes a few juicy tidbits, Zetas hang a few headless bodies
   from a bridge accusing them of contributing to anonymous? True or not,
   cartels can intimidate both sides of the information flow and the sources
   may be more vulnerable than anonymous themselves.

   Still think a discussion of Anonymous and source handling would be pretty
   cool.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Ben West" &lt;ben.west@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 5:42:42 PM
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict        in context

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 4:45:43 PM
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict        in context

   On 11/1/11 1:11 PM, scott stewart wrote:

      Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta Conflict in Context

     On Oct. 31, the online activist collective Anonymous posted a message to
     the internet  in which it stated that it was continuing with its
     campaign against the Mexican criminal cartels and their
     governmentsupporters despite the inherent danger.

      

     The messageurged inexperienced activists who might not be practicing
     proper online security measures to abstain from participating. It also
     urged individuals associated with Anonymous to not conduct physical
     pamphlet drops, participate in protests, wear or purchase Guy Fawkes
     masks, or use Guy Fawkes imagery in their internet or physical world
     activities.[Is this universally or just in Mexico?  The former points to
     problems with LE cracking down on them, the latter specifically to
     cartel retribution]  Guy Fawkes was British Catholic conspirator who was
     involved in a plot to bomb the British Parliament in 1605, and who has
     become somewhat of an Anarchist icon in the United Kingdom. The British
     celebrate Guy Fawkes Day each year on Nov. 5, and the day has special
     meaning for the anarchists.  

      

     It is not coincidental then, that in their Oct. 6 video, Anonymous set
     Nov. 5 as the deadline for Los Zetas to release the Anonymous associate
     who was allegedly kidnapped in Veracruz by Los Zetas. The Anonymous
     associate was reportedly abducted during an Anonymous leaflet campaign
     called Operation Paperstorm.

      

     The Oct. 31message acknowledged that the operation against Los Zetas,
     dubbed a**# OpCartela** is dangerous and noted that the collective would
     be assembling a hand-picked group of known and trusted associates to
     participate in a special task force to execute the operation.[hahahaha,
     this says something about leadership] It asked supporters to use a
     software widget[WC. is this the correct term?] they had developed in
     order to anonymously pass information pertaining to drug trafficking to
     the task force, which will then distribute it. 

      

     With Nov. 5, approaching, and at least some elements of Anonymous not
     backing down on their threats to Los Zetas, we thought it would be
     useful to provide some context to the present conflict between Anonymous
     and Los Zetas and to also address some of its potential implications.

      

     Context

      

     First it issignificant to understand that the physical? geographic?
     epicenter of this event is Veracruz, which  has been a very busy place
     over the past few months in terms of Mexicoa**s cartel wars. The port
     city also serves as a critical transportation hub for the narcotics
     smuggling activities of the Los Zetas cartel. Because of this, Stratfor
     has identified Veracruz as [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111024-mexican-drug-war-update-polarization-continues
     ] a bellweather city thatwill help determine the trajectory of the Los
     Zetas cartel in the coming months. 

      

     One of the big recent developments in Veracruz was the Sinaloa
     cartela**s push into the Zeta stronghold using the [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110928-mexico-security-memo-zetas-defensive-veracruz
     ] Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), which using the name
     Matazetas (Zeta killers) conducted some high-profile body dumps of over
     50 alleged low-level Zeta operatives on Sept. 20 and 22.  On Oct. 25,
     Mexican Marines arrested Carlos Arturo Pitalua-Carillo, a**El Bam
     Bam,a** who was Los Zetas plaza boss in Veracruz.  This means that in
     Veracruz at the present time, Los Zetas are feeling pressure from both
     the Government of Mexico and the CJNG.

      

     Into this dynamic flow, we had the Anonymous internet collective begin
     to take action in Veracruz in August. In response to what Anonymous saw
     as the state of Veracruz supporting the Los Zetas cartel, they launched
     Operation Paperstorm, in which activists who associated themselves with
     the Anonymous collective distributed leaflets throughout Veracruz
     claiming the state government supports Los Zetas.  They conducted major
     leaflet distributions on Aug. 13, 20, and 29. They also released videos
     to the internet on Aug. 26 and 29, condemning the State of Veracruz.
     (According to the Oct. 6 Anonymous video, Los Zetas allegedly kidnapped
     one of the activists involved in Operation Paperstorm.)

      

     Activities outside of Veracruz have also played a part in setting the
     stage. On Sept. 13, two people were tortured and killed and their bodies
     hung from a pedestrianoverpass in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state.  Signs
     left with the bodies signified that Los Zetas had killed the pair
     because they had posted information pertaining to Los Zetas on blogs
     that specialize in reporting on the Mexican cartels. On Sept 26, the
     body of Marisol Macias Casteneda was found beheaded in a park in Nuevo
     Laredo.   Macias who worked for a local newspaper allegedly posted on
     cartel blogs using the nickname a**Laredo Girl.a** A message found with
     her body noted that she was killed by Los Zetas due to her online
     activities.

      

     Following the death of Laredo Girl, Anonymous claimed responsibility for
     a distributed denial of service (DDOS) attack conducted against the
     official website of the state of Veracruz. Although she was killed by
     Los Zetas in Nuevo Laredo Tamaulipas, Anonymous said their attack on the
     Veracruz state website was because of the death of Laredo Girl. [can you
     attempt to explain why they linked it with veracruz?]

      

     It is also important to recognize that some members of Anonymous [again
     I hate referring to Anonymous as one entity] was also unhappy with the
     State of Veracruz over the decision of the state to prosecute two
     individuals who had posted false kidnapping reports on Twitter on Aug.
     25. The false reports alleged that a group of children had been abducted
     from a Veracruz school and the panic caused by the report allegedly
     resulted in some two dozen traffic accidents as terrified parents rushed
     to the school to check o n their children. The so-called a**twitter
     terroristsa** were initially charged with offenses that could have
     carried a 30-year sentence. Those involved in this campaign from
     Anonymous, which claims absolute freedom of speech on the internet as
     one of its foundational principles, took umbrage with this stiff penalty
     for the Twitter case a** especially because it stood in stark contrast
     with the impunity many cartel figures enjoy in Mexico. 

      

      

     Following the Oct. 6 release of the video in which Anonymous threatened
     Los Zetas if they did not release the kidnapped anonymous activist,
     Stratfor began to focus on the story, and in light of the approaching
     Nov. 5 deadline, decided to publish an, [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111028-mexicos-cartels-draw-online-activists-ire
     ] analysis of the topic, which was released on Oct. 28.  

      

     Following the release of our analysis, the topic has received a great
     deal of media coverage. This publicity has generated a very interesting
     response from Anonymous -- one that emphasizes the fast that it is a
     collective of people and not an organization.  As some
     Anonymousactivists were backing off the issue, erasing online user
     accounts[does this mean accounts of people in support of the attack?],
     suggesting that the operation against Los Zetas had been a hoax and
     claiming that no activist had been kidnapped, other activists suggested
     that the campaign should be suspended. Still other activists became more
     strident and determined in their posts, urging that the campaign
     continue. Since Anonymous is a collective, activists can pick and choose
     which actions they will participate in. that means in his case that
     those activists who want to refrain from the campaign will and those who
     want to participate will continue it.  [i see how this paragraph fits
     into your analysis the way you have it written, but I think it might go
     better at the front.  You could use the 'anonymous discussion' as a
     trigger, explain it's "collective" qualities and then go into the rest
     of the analysis.  This way I feel much less bad about how we refer to
     'anonymous']

      

     This will to continue was manifested[something is off in the previous
     part of the sentence] on Oct. 29, the personal website of Gustavo
     RosarioTorres, the former attorney general of the Mexican state of
     Tobasco was hacked and defaced with a message from Anonymous Mexico
     stating that Rosario was aZeta.  It was also reflected in the tone of
     the Oct. 31 message. Some activists associated with Anonymous clearly
     feel compelled to continue with the campaign due to the outpouring[WC. 
     Did they really get an outpouring? seemed like they got a lot of
     criticism and also support for going against the cartels] of public
     support they received in the wake of the media coverage. According to
     the Oct 31. Video statement: (did we see specific examples of "public
     support" or are we just going off of the youtube statement CLAIMING that
     they got lots of support?)

      

     a**we received many expressions of support and solidarity as well as the
     voices of people crying for help. We must remember that we are on the
     side of the people, and we cannot let down the people, especially in
     critical moments like the one they currently live in.a**

      

     We therefore anticipate that some Anonymous activists will continue the
     campaign. We also believe that Los Zetas will respond.

      

     Revenge of the Sith (Yes Kamran, I agree with Isa that Star Wars is
     better than Star Trek. What's Star Trek?) 

      

     The variouscartel groups in Mexico have long used the internet as a
     place to trumpet their triumphs on the battlefield and to taunt and even
     degrade their enemies. The cartels have posted videos of them torturing,
     executing and beheading members of opposing cartels. They also
     frequently monitor narco blogs and sometimeseven post on them.  As
     demonstrated by the blogger killings in Nuevo Laredo in September, Los
     Zetas appear to possess at least some rudimentary capability to trace
     online activity to people in thephysical world. It is not known if they
     employ their own team of dedicated cyber experts or if they rely on
     sources within the Mexican government a** although the most likely
     answer is probably a little of both.  [what about just old-fashioned
     human intelligence?  Many people discuss blogger identities both online
     and offline, something they could've picked up without network-based
     forensics.  'My brother blogs about...' and on from there.  Or by
     tracing the information the blogger had in the real world, and
     eventually getting back to the blogger]

   Tristan was talking about how the cartels were even kidnapping computer
   science students and forcing them to track anonymous down. Need to check
   with him on specifics though

      

      

     In past Anonymous actions, like the Dec. 2010 attack against Pay Pal
     following the Wikileaks case, governments in the U.S. and the UK have
     arrested numerous individuals associated with Anonymous who allegedly
     participated in the attack. In June 2011, Turkey arrested dozens of
     activists associated with Anonymousactions conducted against the Turkish
     government for its efforts to establish a national internet filtering
     system. [Need something to make a point here, maybe something like:] 
     The reality is that there is no such thing as anonymity, on the internet
     or otherwise.  Any action leaves some trail, whether digitial or
     physical.  In the same way that hackers from Anonymous develop exploits
     to access confidential information, law enforcement agencies and even
     cartels could get around encryption, examine patterns of activity and
     investigate leads that in the end identify a real person behind a
     computer. 

      

     Los Zetas, like the other Mexican cartels, do not take affronts lightly.
     Even if Anonymous is not able to provide information that will damage
     Los Zetas smuggling operations, the very fact that this group has
     decided to challenge Los Zetas publicly will result in some sort of
     response. The big question is: do theypossess the capability to
     effectively trace the organizers of the Anonymousaction against them?

      

     One problem with an entity such as Anonymous is that it is intentionally
     amorphous a** it is also as transnational as the internet, and it would
     not be surprising if many of those chosen to participate in the
     operation against Los Zetas are located outside of Mexico in locations
     such as the U.S. and Europe which are outside the immediate reach of Los
     Zetas.(the US is not out of reach, at least not on the border:
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111005-mexico-security-memo-defining-cross-border-violence)

      

     But the amorphous nature of Anonymous can also cut the other way.  If
     Los Zetas pick up and execute some random patrons from an internet cafe,
     behead them and place Guy Fawkesmasks on their heads, it will be very
     difficult to prove that they were not  associated with  Anonymous.  As
     Anonymous noted in their Oct. 31 video, this is dangerous business.(it
     would certainly be within the cartel's capacity to kill innocents and
     blame anonymous in the attempt to intimidate them into stopping their
     activity)

      

      

     The Big Picture

      

     One thing to watch as the Anonymous operation continues is the way in
     which the Mexican public reacts. Many people in the Mexican middle and
     upper classes have been deeply affected by the criminal cartels and
     theviolence the practice. We talk to many people in Mexico who are
     fearful of being kidnapped. In many communities, especially places like
     Juarez, Torreon, Monterrey and Veracruz, businessmen are being caught in
     a terrible bind. On one hand, they are receiving ever-increasing
     extortion demands from the cartels, while at the same time their
     business revenues are dwindling because people are afraid to go out due
     to the violence associated with those same cartels. This is forcing many
     businessmen[enterprises?] out of business. It is also creating a great
     deal of frustration and resentment.

      

     At the same time, Mexico has become one of the most dangerous countries
     in the world for journalists, and many media organizations practice
     heavy self-censorship to protect themselves. In the wake of the
     September blogger killings some of the narco blogs, like Blog del Narco,
     have also exhibited strong signs of fear inspired self-censorship.  
     This means that the legitimate press is not able to be of any real aid
     to the Mexican people.

      

     Mexican citizens are also frustrated with their government, which is
     well-known for corruption.  This is the sentiment feeding Anonymousa**
     original campaign in Veracruz.  This frustration has lead some people to
     begin to talk about

     vigilante groups to fight the cartels a** though that has been attempted
     before in Mexico and as we saw in the case of [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090714_mexico_la_familia_michoacana_expands_its_attacks
     ] La Familia MichoacA!n, which originally began as such a vigilante
     group, vigilantism frequently does not end well.

      

     This is where Anonymous may fit in. With Mexican citizens unable to rely
     on their government, the media or even armed vigilante groups for
     assistance, they may embrace Anonymous and come to view its form of
     cyber vigilantism as an outlet for their frustration -- and a perceived
     safe way to pass oninformation pertaining to cartel activities.  If this
     occurs, we may see people not just in Veracruz and other Zeta controlled
     areas providing information to Anonymous, but citizens from all over the
     country.

      

     Also, in the same way that cartels leak information togovernments in an
     effort to use them as weapons against their rivals, we could also very
     well see groups such as the Sinaloa cartel provide information on Los
     Zetas to Anonymous. This of course would provide even more reason for
     Los Zetas to strike out against the activist collective.

      

     If the Anonymous information campaign does indeed take off, and if
     Anonymous is attacked by Los Zetas, the activists could resort to
     releasing sensitive information to the U.S. Drug Enforcement
     Administration in an attempt to damage Los Zetas. This would be an
     incredible irony in light of the way Anonymous has viewed itself as an
     opponent of the U.S. government in cases like Wikileaks. (Anonymous has
     made it clear that the value they provide is a safe and private medium
     through which to pass this damning information. Their stated priority is
     to publicize information that people send to them. But, do they have a
     way to protect their sources? They likely don't have much collective
     experience in source handling. I imagine a lot of the details they get
     could put their sources in serious trouble. If I were a semi-smart
     Mexican who knew some super detailed information on the cartels, I would
     think long and hard before handing it over to these guys. This may be a
     separate piece entirely, but I think we need a discussion on source
     handling and how good hackers don't necessarily make good intelligence
     agents.)

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   STRATFOR

   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967

   www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-01 23:46:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/171808_re-s-weekly-for-comment-placing-the-anonymous-vs-zeta.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ben.west@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>172442</id>
    <title>G3* - IRAN/UN/MIL - Iran IAEA report leaked
</title>
    <description>           I'm thinking we'll see a bucket load of items out of Iran, the US
           and Europe today regarding the coming IAEA report and all the
           politicing around it. Might as well have them all in one place for
           ease of reading [chris]

   Obviously waaaaay too much info here to rep. The key element of this item
   is the leaking of the info before the release of the report in order to
   prime/set the agenda by focusing on particular aspects and findings of the
   report. this leak is obviously a part of the concerted PR operation on
   behalf of the Israelis, US and possibly some Europeans and KSA. The items
   of the report are secondary in importance to the agenda that is being
   played out here to increase pressure on Iran, probably in the attempt to
   increase sanctions and push it to the top of the global consciousness thus
   giving the US increased leverage to bargain the best possible pull out of
   Iraq/Afghanistan [chris]

   there was a strange report of an anonymous speaker at a forum last friday,
   this may be related to that [johnblasing]

   IAEA says foreign expertise has brought Iran to threshold of nuclear
   capability

   http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iaea-says-foreign-expertise-has-brought-iran-to-threshold-of-nuclear-capability/2011/11/05/gIQAc6hjtM_print.html

   By Joby Warrick, Monday, November 7, 4:41 AM

   Intelligence provided to U.N. nuclear officials shows that Iran's
   government has mastered the critical steps needed to build a nuclear
   weapon, receiving assistance from foreign scientists to overcome key
   technical hurdles, according to Western diplomats and nuclear experts
   briefed on the findings.

   Documents and other records provide new details on the role played by a
   former Soviet weapons scientist who allegedly tutored Iranians over
   several years on building high-precision detonators of the kind used to
   trigger a nuclear chain reaction, the officials and experts said. Crucial
   technology linked to experts in Pakistan and North Korea also helped
   propel Iran to the threshold of nuclear capability, they added.

   The officials, citing secret intelligence provided over several years to
   the International Atomic Energy Agency, said the records reinforce
   concerns that Iran continued to conduct weapons-related research after
   2003 - when, U.S. intelligence agencies believe, Iranian leaders halted
   such experiments in response to international and domestic pressures.

   The U.N. nuclear watchdog is due to release a report this week laying out
   its findings on Iran's efforts to obtain sensitive nuclear technology.
   Fears that Iran could quickly build an atomic bomb if it chooses to has
   fueled anti-Iran rhetoric and new threats of military strikes. Some U.S.
   arms-control groups have cautioned against what they fear could be an
   overreaction to the report, saying there is still time to persuade Iran to
   change its behavior.

   Iranian officials expressed indifference about the report.

   "Let them publish and see what happens," said Iran's foreign minister and
   former nuclear top official, Ali Akbar Salehi, the semiofficial Mehr News
   Agency reported Saturday.

   Salehi said that the controversy over Iran's nuclear program is "100
   percent political" and that the IAEA is "under pressure from foreign
   powers."

   `Never really stopped'

   Although the IAEA has chided Iran for years to come clean about a number
   of apparently weapons-related scientific projects, the new disclosures
   fill out the contours of an apparent secret research program that was more
   ambitious, more organized and more successful than commonly suspected.
   Beginning early in the last decade and apparently resuming - though at a
   more measured pace - after a pause in 2003, Iranian scientists worked
   concurrently across multiple disciplines to obtain key skills needed to
   make and test a nuclear weapon that could fit inside the country's
   long-range missiles, said David Albright, a former IAEA official who has
   reviewed the intelligence files.
   "The program never really stopped," said Albright, president of the
   Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security. The
   institute performs widely respected independent analyses of nuclear
   programs in countries around the world, often drawing from IAEA data.

   "After 2003, money was made available for research in areas that sure look
   like nuclear weapons work but were hidden within civilian institutions,"
   Albright said.

   U.S. intelligence officials maintain that Iran's leaders have not decided
   whether to build nuclear weapons but are intent on gathering all the
   components and skills so they can quickly assemble a bomb if they choose
   to. Iran has consistently maintained that its nuclear activities are
   peaceful and intended only to generate electricity.

   The IAEA has declined to comment on the intelligence it has received from
   member states, including the United States, pending the release of its
   report.

   But some of the highlights were described in a presentation by Albright at
   a private conference of intelligence professionals last week. PowerPoint
   slides from the presentation were obtained by The Washington Post, and
   details of Albright's summary were confirmed by two European diplomats
   privy to the IAEA's internal reports. The two officials spoke on the
   condition of anonymity, in keeping with diplomatic protocol.

   Albright said IAEA officials, based on the totality of the evidence given
   to them, have concluded that Iran "has sufficient information to design
   and produce a workable implosion nuclear device" using highly enriched
   uranium as its fissile core. In the presentation, he described
   intelligence that points to a formalized and rigorous process for gaining
   all the necessary skills for weapons-building, using native talent as well
   as a generous helping of foreign expertise.

   "The [intelligence] points to a comprehensive project structure and
   hierarchy with clear responsibilities, timelines and deliverables,"
   Albright said, according to the notes from the presentation.

   Key outside assistance

   According to Albright, one key breakthrough that has not been publicly
   described was Iran's success in obtaining design information for a device
   known as an R265 generator. The device is a hemispherical aluminum shell
   with an intricate array of high explosives that detonate with split-second
   precision. These charges compress a small sphere of enriched uranium or
   plutonium to trigger a nuclear chain reaction.

   Creating such a device is a formidable technical challenge, and Iran
   needed outside assistance in designing the generator and testing its
   performance, Albright said.

   According to the intelligence provided to the IAEA, key assistance in both
   areas was provided by Vyacheslav Danilenko, a former Soviet nuclear
   scientist who was contracted in the mid-1990s by Iran's Physics Research
   Center, a facility linked to the country's nuclear program. Documents
   provided to the U.N. officials showed that Danilenko offered assistance to
   the Iranians over at least five years, giving lectures and sharing
   research papers on developing and testing an explosives package that the
   Iranians apparently incorporated into their warhead design, according to
   two officials with access to the IAEA's confidential files.

   Danilenko's role was judged to be so critical that IAEA investigators
   devoted considerable effort to obtaining his cooperation, the two
   officials said. The scientist acknowledged his role but said he thought
   his work was limited to assisting civilian engineering projects, the
   sources said.

   There is no evidence that Russian government officials knew of Danilenko's
   activities in Iran. E-mails requesting comment from Russian officials in
   Washington and Moscow were not returned. Efforts to reach Danilenko
   through his former company were not successful.

   Iran relied on foreign experts to supply mathematical formulas and codes
   for theoretical design work - some of which appear to have originated in
   North Korea, diplomats and weapons experts say. Additional help appears to
   have come from the father of Pakistan's nuclear program, Abdul Qadeer
   Khan, whose design for a device known as a neutron initiator was found in
   Iran, the sources said. Khan is known to have provided nuclear blueprints
   to Libya that included a neutron initiator, a device that shoots a stream
   of atomic particles into a nuclear weapon's fissile core at the start of
   the nuclear chain reaction.

   One Iranian document provided to the IAEA portrayed Iranian scientists as
   discussing plans to conduct a four-year study of neutron initiators
   beginning in 2007, four years after Iran was said to have halted such
   research.

   "It is unknown if it commenced or progressed as planned," Albright said.
   The disclosures come against a backdrop of new threats of military strikes
   on Iran. Israeli newspapers reported last week that there is high-level
   government support in Israel for a military attack on Iran's nuclear
   installations.

   "One of the problems with such open threats of military action is that it
   furthers the drift towards a military conflict and makes it more difficult
   to dial down tensions," said Peter Crail, a nonproliferation analyst with
   the Arms Control Association, a Washington advocacy group. "It also risks
   creating an assumption that we can always end Iran's nuclear program with
   a few airstrikes if nothing else works. That's simply not the case."

   Special correspondent Thomas Erdbrink in Tehran contributed to this
   report.

     (Corr) Cleric asks IAEA head to avoid "lies"against Iran, save dignity
     of Agency

     At 0522 gmt, IRTV1 started airing the Id al-Adha prayer sermons in
     Tehran by Ayatollah Seyyed Ahmad Khatami live. Ayatollah Khatami listed
     10 types of plots that America and Israel have resorted to against Iran
     during the past 32 year.

     He said: "During the past 32 years, we have witnessed different types of
     plots of the global arrogance against us, especially of the US and its
     illegitimate child, the Zionist regime. I have written down 10 types of
     these [plots] - seven of which refer to the domestic field and three
     others the foreign field."

     He described "ethnic wars" as the first type of plots. Then he spoke
     about "assassinations" and said: "Over 12,000 people have been
     assassinated by the US and its agents in this country" He added that
     Iran possesses 100 "undeniable documents" that prove America's
     involvement in the assassinations inside the country and outside of it,
     in other countries.

     He referred to the "eight-year imposed war" (Iraq-Iran war) as the third
     type of plot and termed "influences up to the level of the president" as
     the fourth type of plots (reference to the 2009 presidential candidate
     Mirhoseyn Musavi).

     Describing "coups" as the fifth type of plot, he said that six coups
     were initiated by the US in Iran, all of which, he said were "foiled"
     with the help of God.

     He called the "soft warfare and"1388 sedition" (2009 post-poll protests)
     are the sixth and seventh types of America's and Israel's plots against
     Iran.

     Regarding the foreign types of plots, Khatami said: "Eight: Intrusion
     into Afghanistan aimed at creating a base against the Islamic Iran.
     Nine: Intrusion into Iraq to establish control over Iran. 10: New Middle
     East, which was aimed at curbing the wave of the huge Islamic
     Revolution."

     He added that all these plots were "foiled" with the help of God.

     Source: Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1, Tehran, in
     Persian 0525gmt 07 Nov 11

     BBC Mon Alert ME1 MEPol sh

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

     Top cleric lists 10 types of US, Israel "plots" against Iran

     At 0522 gmt, IRTV1 started airing the Id al-Adha prayer sermons in
     Tehran by Ayatollah Seyyed Ahmad Khatami live. Ayatollah Khatami listed
     10 types of plots that America and Israel have resorted to against Iran
     during the past 32 year.

     He said: "During the past 32 years, we have witnessed different types of
     plots of the global arrogance against us, especially of the US and its
     illegitimate child, the Zionist regime. I have written down 10 types of
     these [plots] - seven of which refer to the domestic field and three
     others the foreign field."

     He described "ethnic wars" as the first type of plots. Then he spoke
     about "assassinations" and said: "Over 12,000 people have been
     assassinated by the US and its agents in this country" He added that
     Iran possesses 100 "undeniable documents" that prove America's
     involvement in the assassinations inside the country and outside of it,
     in other countries.

     He referred to the "eight-year imposed war" (Iraq-Iran war) as the third
     type of plot and termed "influences up to the level of the president" as
     the fourth type of plots (reference to the 2009 presidential candidate
     Mirhoseyn Musavi).

     Describing "coups" as the fifth type of plot, he said that six coups
     were initiated by the US in Iran, all of which, he said were "foiled"
     with the help of God.

     He called the "soft warfare and"1388 sedition" (2009 post-poll protests)
     are the sixth and seventh types of America's and Israel's plots against
     Iran.

     Regarding the foreign types of plots, Khatami said: "Eight: Intrusion
     into Afghanistan aimed at creating a base against the Islamic Iran.
     Nine: Intrusion into Iraq to establish control over Iran. 10: New Middle
     East, which was aimed at curbing the wave of the huge Islamic
     Revolution."

     He added that all these plots were "foiled" with the help of God.

     Source: Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1, Tehran, in
     Persian 0522gmt 07 Nov 11

     BBC Mon Alert ME1 MEPol sh

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

       More anti-Western remarks attributed to Khatami [chris]

       Top clear asks IAEA chief to avoid "lies" against Iran, save dignity
       of Agency

       During the Id al-Adha sermons at Tehran University being aired live by
       IRTV1, Ayatollah Seyyed Ahmad Khatami referred to the upcoming IAEA
       report on Iran nuclear programme and addressed the Secretary-General
       of the Agency [Yukiya Amano], saying: "Do not insult the dignity of
       the International Atomic Energy Agency with your conduct."

       He added that if he [Amano] is used as a "week tool of the US" and
       acts against the "independent nation" of Iran and "publishes lies" in
       the form of a document then "whatever dignity is left of the Agency,
       will be wiped off."

       Thanking God for his blessings, he further said that all "plots"
       against Iran have always been "nullified".

       He added: "I explicitly tell America that the period of superpower has
       ended [for you]. America is being considered like an empty drum in the
       world, today. Neither are you the America of the past, nor the Islamic
       Iran is Iran of the past of during the Shah's time."

       He added that Iran today is a strong country that can confront any
       plot in a manner that will be a "lesson" for others.

       Source: Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1, Tehran, in
       Persian 0525gmt 07 Nov 11

       BBC Mon Alert ME1 MEPol sh

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

    Iran foreign minister terms Bushehr plant "symbol" of Iran-Russia ties   
                                                                             
    Text of report by Iranian official government news agency IRNA website   
                                                                             
    Tehran, 6 November, IRNA: Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said here on 
    Sunday [6 November] that Bushehr nuclear power plant is a symbol of      
    Iran-Russia cooperation.                                                 
                                                                             
    He made the remark in a meeting with new Russian Ambassador to Iran Leon 
    Jagarian, who submitted a copy of his credentials to Salehi.             
                                                                             
    "Bushehr power plant as a symbol of Iran-Russia cooperation proves that  
    the two countries can exchange views and cooperate at regional and       
    international levels.                                                    
                                                                             
    Pointing to the Iran-Russia excellent relations, Salehi said             
    unfortunately the volume of trade exchange between the two countries is  
    not enough while they have high potentials in this regard.               
                                                                             
    Expressing Iran's readiness to increase the current volume of economic   
    exchange by 10bn dollars, he said the two countries can expand their     
    cooperation in such fields as politics, economy, trade, culture, oil and 
    gas and power plant construction.                                        
                                                                             
    Jagarian described the recent meeting between the Iranian and Russian    
    presidents in Astana, Kazakhstan as a new phase in the two countries'    
    relations.                                                               
                                                                             
    He also expressed his country's readiness to cooperate with Iran at      
    regional and international levels.                                       
                                                                             
    Source: Islamic Republic News Agency website, Tehran, in English 1613gmt 
    06 Nov 11                                                                
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEPol sh                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

         Not on IRNA english yet - CR

    Attacking Iran would make US, Israel "pay heavy price" - official        
                                                                             
    Excerpt from report by Iranian news channel Press TV website             
                                                                             
    A member of Iran's Assembly of Expert says that the United States and    
    Israel will have to pay a heavy price for any military attack on Iran's  
    nuclear facilities.                                                      
                                                                             
    Seyyed Mahmud Alavi told IRNA on Sunday [6 November] that Washington and 
    Tel Aviv are aware of the fact that putting their anti-Iran threats into 
    practice would cost them dearly, and thus they would not become involved 
    in such folly.                                                           
                                                                             
    He stated that the US and Israel know that such empty threats cannot     
    intimidate Iran and also know that they would receive a crushing         
    response if they ever attack the Islamic Republic.                       
                                                                             
    [Passage omitted: background information]                                
                                                                             
    Source: Press TV website, Tehran, in English 1419gmt 06 Nov 11           
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEPol sh                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

           Transcript Ehud Barak interview
           Page last updated at 11:09 GMT, Sunday, 6 November 2011
           PLEASE NOTE "THE ANDREW MARR SHOW" MUST BE CREDITED IF ANY PART OF
           THIS TRANSCRIPT IS USED
           http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/andrew_marr_show/9632770.stm
           JEREMY VINE:

           Now by any standards Ehud Barak has had an astonishing career
           serving his country. Israel's Prime Minister during the Camp David
           negotiations with Yasser Arafat now serves as both Deputy Prime
           Minister and Defence Minister in the current government. Before
           entering politics, he was one of the country's most decorated
           soldiers carrying out the kind of military ops that are now the
           stuff of legend among many Israelis. So a man of peace or a man of
           war? When I met him in London recently, I began by asking why his
           government has authorised the building of more settlements despite
           international criticism.

           EHUD BARAK:

           We are building in Jerusalem. It's our capital. We are building in
           the Jewish neighbourhoods of Jerusalem. It's a city of 700,000
           people. You have to build and we will not accept anyone has the
           right to intervene in this. And we ...

           JEREMY VINE:

           (over) Well that is seen as speeding up, isn't it? That's seen as
           acceleration.

           EHUD BARAK:

           (over) No, it's not. No speeding up ... It's about numbers and
           pace, numbers per unit time. When Olmert was Prime Minister five
           years ago, we were building our defence minister twice the rate we
           are building now. When I was Prime Minister ten years ago, we were
           building four times the rate we are building right now. So it's
           not about the pace.

           JEREMY VINE:

           But why not ... Again it's about the symbolism. Why not just stop
           for a while because the other side see this as getting in the way,
           don't they?

           EHUD BARAK:

           No, no, the other side plays with it as a kind of manipulation to
           put certain preconditions into the dialogue. The reason that
           Olmert's government and my government could do it is because
           somehow we managed to convince the rest of the world that we are
           genuine in our talks and now we are facing more sophisticated
           Palestinian group which feels the zeitgeist behind them. They feel
           that they have good will from many international bodies, so they
           try to play with this issue of settlement. It really shouldn't
           matter because ...

           JEREMY VINE:

           Well you said something very, very interesting there - the phrases
           you've used - where you say you're dealing with a sophisticated
           Palestinian leadership now and they're very zeitgeisty and I
           couldn't have put it better myself in these questions. They're
           getting world opinion behind them, aren't they?

           EHUD BARAK:

           Yuh, yuh. We have to work properly to allow our people, our kind
           of spokesmen to talk more often to others, but it won't solve the
           issue. It cannot ...

           JEREMY VINE:

           (over) Are you frustrated at that?

           EHUD BARAK:

           I am a little bit frustrated by the fact that we cannot convince
           even some of our friends.

           JEREMY VINE:

           Okay, just to be clear. You accept that it strengthens Hamas if
           you go on building these settlements or not?

           EHUD BARAK:

           I don't think it relates to Hamas. Hamas basically is challenging
           Abu Mazen and the Palestinian authority. They are turning to
           terror. We cannot negotiate with them. Hamas are shooting at us
           rockets. You know just last week we got dozens of rockets in our
           southern part of the country. One man, father of four, was killed.
           That's something that cannot go together with peacemaking.

           JEREMY VINE:

           Let me change the subject.

           EHUD BARAK:

           (over) So it will be a challenge for Abu Mazen to take control
           over his own political system.

           JEREMY VINE:
           Alright, alright, I want to just move on because we haven't got
           much time. I want to talk to you about Iran as well. And I gather
           if we had the Israeli newspapers here and we opened them up, we
           would see that everyone in Israel is now thinking that you're
           getting ready to attack Iran. Is that right? Is that what people
           are saying?

           EHUD BARAK:

           Believe me, don't ... I do not try to underestimate the nature of
           the Iranian threat. That's a major threat for the stability of the
           whole region, probably of the whole world. A nuclear Iran - and
           they are determined to reach nuclear military capability - can
           open a major arms race, nuclear arms race in the whole Middle
           East. It can change the effectiveness of their supporting and
           their co-sponsoring of terror all around the region. They can ...

           JEREMY VINE:

           (over) Which is why the Israeli papers are saying aha, you're
           about to strike on them.

           EHUD BARAK:

           No, but I am telling it for years now. And they will intimidate
           neighbours in a much more effective way, especially when America
           and others are moving out of the region. I hope that the IAEA
           Report next week will tell the whole world a little bit more
           explicitly what they are really doing in regard to their nuclear
           plan.

           JEREMY VINE:

           (over) This is the narrative that's coming together. It's the
           missile test. It's the long range bombing plan. It's the IAEA
           Report which you mentioned. So they may say that Iran is getting
           closer to a bomb.

           EHUD BARAK:

           We strongly believe that sanctions are effective or could be
           effective if they are little and paralysing enough, that diplomacy
           could work if enough unity could be synchronised between the major
           players, but that no option should be removed from the table.

           JEREMY VINE:

           You have an amazing military record, and for those who don't know
           it, 19... - correct me if I'm wrong here - 1972 led the mission to
           free hostages on a Sabena flight; 1973, I read somewhere you
           dressed as a woman to assassinate - you're nodding - members of
           the PLO.

           EHUD BARAK:

           (over) Not as a hobby, yuh.

           JEREMY VINE:

           Okay. A scene in the film Munich reflected that. You were involved
           in Operation Entebbe in 1976; helped dismantle the Palestinian
           terror cell known as Black September. I'm thinking you're not
           really into diplomacy here. You would like to attack Iran.

           EHUD BARAK:

           No, I was also Foreign Affairs Minister of Israel and Prime
           Minister. In the last 15 years I didn't shot a single shot at
           anyone and I played a lot round the diplomatic saloons and the TV
           interviews as well. You know it's too serious. Israel is there. A
           person cannot choose his parents and a nation cannot choose its
           neighbours. We are living in a tough neighbourhood. No mercy for
           the weak, no second opportunity for those who cannot defend
           themselves. We would love to have the Canadians as our neighbours,
           but unfortunately the Americans got them. It's a tough
           neighbourhood and we have to be strong.

           JEREMY VINE:

           (over) One more because if you suddenly attack Iran next week, I
           want to make sure we've asked every question here. Have you got
           British support for that - for flying over them and dropping a
           bomb on their nuclear reactors?

           EHUD BARAK:

           I'm not going even to respond to this. May I say we are not ...
           don't worry about your next week programme, but the Iranian
           challenge is serious. This is something that should be prevented
           from happening. We have to stay there. We are strong. Israel is
           the strongest country a thousand miles around Jerusalem. We plan
           to remain the strongest country around. But we are at the same
           time peaceful. We are ready to make peace at any moment with any
           one of our neighbours.

           JEREMY VINE:

           So pretty cautious. Ehud Barak there, Israel's Defence Minister.
           No options ruled out on Iran.

           INTERVIEW ENDS

 --
 Clint Richards
 Global Monitor
 clint.richards@stratfor.com
 cell: 81 080 4477 5316
 office: 512 744 4300 ex:40841

           Iran Calligrapher's Association of North America, according to
           Google. Possibly not the entity being referred to below, though
           [chris]

           No idea what ICANA is... - CR

    Nuclear talks possible only if IAEA submits "honest" report - Iran       
    official                                                                 
                                                                             
    Text of report by Iranian news channel Press TV website                  
                                                                             
    An Iranian lawmaker says Iran has nothing to hide regarding its nuclear  
    programme and Tehran will only participate in negotiations if the UN     
    atomic agency is "honest" in its reports.                                
                                                                             
    Deputy Chairman of Iran's Majlis (parliament) National Security and      
    Foreign Policy Committee Esma'il Kowsari said that if the International  
    Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) resorts to deception then Iran "will set     
    conditions for talks."                                                   
                                                                             
    He went on to say that so long as the IAEA submits to the will of        
    arrogant powers particularly Washington, the agency's reports will       
    always be compiled to portray Iran in a negative light.                  
                                                                             
    "While the US has between 7,000 to 10,000 nuclear warheads and no other  
    country has atrocities such as Nagasaki and Hiroshima on its record, the 
    agency makes no effort to act against it (the US) and does not even dare 
    write a report against it," ICANA quoted him as saying on Sunday.        
                                                                             
    The IAEA director-general Yukiya Amano is scheduled to submit his new    
    report on Iran's nuclear case to IAEA member states on 8 November 2011.  
                                                                             
    However, Amano's visit to Washington for talks with US officials ahead   
    of the publication of the report has cast grave suspicion over its       
    objectivity and sincerity.                                               
                                                                             
    Iran has always rejected US allegations that it is pursuing a military   
    nuclear program and asserted the right to develop and acquire nuclear    
    technology for peaceful purposes as a signatory to the Non-Proliferation 
    Treaty [NPT].                                                            
                                                                             
    Source: Press TV website, Tehran, in English 1925gmt 06 Nov 11           
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEPol sh                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

           On 11/6/11 9:43 PM, Chris Farnham wrote:

             al-Ahkbar isn't in english - CR

               Iran's Ahmadinejad defiant as U.S. raises heat-paper
               http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/irans-ahmadinejad-defiant-as-us-raises-heat-paper/
               06 Nov 2011 23:19

               CAIRO, Nov 7 (Reuters) - The United States fears Iran's
               growing military power because it is now able to compete with
               Israel and the West, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
               said in comments carried by an Egyptian newspaper on Monday.

               Responding to a toughening stance from the United States and
               Israel against Tehran, Ahmadinejad accused Washington of
               inventing conspiracies to discredit Iran and sowing discord
               with its near neighbour Saudi Arabia.

               "Yes, we have military capabilities that are different from
               any other country in the region," Egyptian daily al-Akhbar
               cited Ahmadinejad as saying. "Iran is increasing in capability
               and advancement and therefore we are able to compete with
               Israel and the West and especially the United States."

               "The U.S. fears Iran's capability," he told the paper. "Iran
               will not permit (anyone from making) a move against it."
               Iran's Islamic rulers, who say Israel has no right to exist,
               deny accusations that they are seeking nuclear weapons and
               have warned they will respond to any attacks by striking at
               Israel and U.S. interests in the Gulf.

               A senior U.S. military official said on Friday Iran had become
               the biggest threat to the United States and Israel's president
               said the military option to stop the Islamic republic from
               obtaining nuclear weapons was nearer.

               Ahmadinejad repeated that Iran does not own a nuclear bomb,
               but said Israel's end was inevitable.
               The U.N. nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, is expected this week to
               issue its most detailed report yet on research in Iran seen as
               geared to developing atomic bombs.

               "It is Israel that has about 300 nuclear warheads. Iran is
               only keen to have nuclear capability for peaceful means," he
               said, accusing Washington of lumping Iran with Syria, the
               Islamist Hamas movement that rules Gaza and Hezbollah in
               Lebanon.

               The U.S. portrays those four as "the Axis of Evil to save the
               Zionist entity (Israel). But the Zionists are bound to go out
               of existence," he said.

               Responding to a U.S. claim that Iran was involved in a plot to
               kill the Saudi ambassador to Washington, Ahmadinejad said:
               "Iran is farthest from thinking of carrying out such crimes
               but the U.S. is always inventing conspiracies against Iran".

               "The U.S. fears any friendship between us and Saudi Arabia and
               therefore incites disagreements," he said. "To stop the U.S.
               in its tracks we must deepen the elements of friendship... We
               are ready for this and the relation between Saudi and Iran
               already exists and has not been cut off." (Reporting by Marwa
               Awad; Writing by Tom Pfeiffer; Editing by Matthew Jones)

 --
 Clint Richards
 Global Monitor
 clint.richards@stratfor.com
 cell: 81 080 4477 5316
 office: 512 744 4300 ex:40841

 --
 Clint Richards
 Global Monitor
 clint.richards@stratfor.com
 cell: 81 080 4477 5316
 office: 512 744 4300 ex:40841

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-07 09:02:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/172442_g3-iran-un-mil-iran-iaea-report-leaked-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>173467</id>
    <title>MORE*: MORE*: G3* - IRAN/UN/MIL - Iran IAEA report leaked
</title>
    <description>   Next few hours?  I thought it was tomorrow.  It is an Iranian source after
   all.  [yp]
   IAEA Chief to Release US-Worded Report on Iran in Hours

   11/8/11

   http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=9007272576

   TEHRAN (FNA)- The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
   Director-General, Yukiya Amano, is due to release the UN nuclear
   watchdog's latest report on Iran's nuclear activities in the next few
   hours, while many even in the West believe that the report carries the US
   tone and wording on an IAEA paper.
      

   The western diplomats and sources had informed around a month ago that
   this report would contain some documents which have been presented to the
   IAEA by certain western countries and would show that Iran is pursuing a
   military drive in its nuclear program.

   Amano has reportedly attached a 15-page annexation to his report which
   will focus on the issue of Iran's alleged studies in the field of military
   nuclear activities.

   Diplomats in Tehran say Amano received the last orders from Washington on
   this report during his last week trip to the US and that's why he shrugged
   off the last week demands by Russia, China and some European countries as
   well as the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) member states that he respect UN
   impartiality and adopt a fair approach towards Iran's nuclear issue in his
   coming report.

   Nuclear experts both in Tehran and the IAEA Secretariat believe that the
   annexation won't be defendable from technical and legal perspectives and
   will "rapidly turn into a crisis for the IAEA" and will discredit the UN
   body.

   A look at the following points would show the shallow depth and
   unreliability of Amano's upcoming report on Iran:

   1- None of the documents presented in the November 2011 report is new and
   all of them are related to the contents of a laptop computer which the
   US-led West alleges to have been stolen from Iran and was brought up first
   in 2004. In fact the release of these documents show that Amano - despite
   his claims - has no up-to-date information or data about the alleged
   studies and his information is what was presented in 2004. This proves
   that all IAEA allegations and claims in its recent reports that it has
   information to prove Iran has been pursuing a military nuclear drive after
   2004 have all been nothing but a lie.
   2- Neither Iran nor the IAEA has ever witnessed these documents. Since
   2007, both Iran and the IAEA have been demanding that the original version
   of these so-called documents be presented to an independent team to go
   under veracity checks, but Americans have always refrained from doing so.
   This lack of cooperation annoyed the former IAEA Chief, Mohamed ElBaradei,
   so deeply that he repeatedly accused Americans of non-compliance with the
   IAEA safeguard tasks and undertakings. More importantly, Americans
   apparently have only one electronic file and do not have any original
   document. In fact, there is no original document in the case of the
   alleged studies. Iran proved to the IAEA in a 117-page assessment in 2008
   that these so-called documents are fake, but Amano makes no reference to
   Iran's assessment in his report.
   3- Basically speaking, neither the IAEA nor any other side is able to
   prove that these documents are related to Iran, even if we assume they are
   authentic. In other words, sowing and compiling a series of texts and
   documents in the Persian language and forging a number of seals and
   signatures and headings can never prove that these documents really belong
   to the state bodies in Iran.
   4- There is no document to prove that what the IAEA calls alleged studies
   pertain to the use of nuclear materials and the abovementioned documents
   are silent in this regard as well. Thus, in case we assume these documents
   as authentic, they can pertain to conventional military activities and the
   claim that they are related to military nuclear activities is wrong
   because it is not supported by any information or evidence.
   5- Once again even if we consider these documents to be authentic, all
   what they show is a series of computer simulations, and not practice or
   activity. It is essentially due to the very same reason that the IAEA has
   called this project as "alleged studies". There is no proof in these
   documents to show that these studies have been put into practice.

   The abovementioned points reveal that the attachment to Amano's upcoming
   report is, in fact, not a document in the real sense of the matter, but a
   collection of forged information which has been attached to the report
   under the US political pressure.

   Diplomats say that US Ambassador to the IAEA Glyn Davies has prepared a
   16-page report since yesterday and has been personally in contact with the
   western media and reporters to brief them on the IAEA report in a bid to
   release it with maximum media propaganda and ballyhoo against Iran.

   Excerpts of this report which has been released by certain western media
   show the same words and statements which have been frequently stated in
   IAEA reports since 2004 which were refuted by Iran in its 117-page
   assessment in May 2008.

   Now Mr. Amano, who according to the documents released by the WikiLeaks
   has promised the Americans to check all its measures and appointments with
   them, has apparently been given the mission to release the forged
   information and materials of the CIA in the form of an IAEA report, while
   many experts believe that these documents have been forged very naively
   and their release would totally discredit the IAEA.

   Experts say that parts of this report, including paragraphs 23 and 24 have
   been copy-pasted from the Untied States' 2008 National Intelligence
   Estimate (NIE).

   In 2007, Washington released the annual National Intelligence Estimate by
   16 US intelligence bodies that endorsed the civilian nature of Iran's
   programs. The 2007 NIE mentioned that Iran has not been pursuing a
   military nuclear activity since 2003. Hence, the report discredited the US
   because it undermined Washington's efforts to push further sanctions on
   Iran. To make up for this goof, the US alleged in its 2008 NIE that
   aspects of these military activities might have been continued after 2003
   and now we can see that the same allegations have been copy-pasted from
   the 2008 NIE to the 2011 IAEA report on Iran (paragraphs 23 &amp; 24) and Mr.
   Director-General has not even bothered to make some minute changes in the
   wording of these materials.

   Another ridiculous point pertains to paragraphs 47-53 of the coming IAEA
   report. In this part of the IAEA report which has actually been written by
   the US Ambassador to the IAEA Glyn Davies, Mr. Amano claims that Iran has
   carried out a number of hydrodynamic computer simulations for
   manufacturing nuclear weapons. It has also been mentioned in this part
   that the IAEA has a number of satellite images of a metal bunker used for
   nuclear weapons tests in Parchin facility.

   These parts of Amano's report are the result of a job carried out by
   Ferederic Claude, an agent of the French Intelligence Service, who had
   earlier been in charge of satellite imaging at the IAEA and is now Amano's
   advisor. It is noteworthy that Claude, accompanied by IAEA Deputy Director
   General for Safeguards Olli Heinonen, brought these pictures to Tehran a
   few years ago and asked for a visit to Parchin facility. In response, Iran
   allowed the IAEA inspectors to visit any part of Parchin that they wanted
   and carry out sampling tests. The result of that visit revealed that
   first, what Mr. Claude called a metal bunker or container for building
   bombs was actually a metal toilet in Parchin, and second the samplings
   showed no nuclear activity in Parchin and that's why the IAEA closed the
   case with Parchin facility.

   On 11/8/11 8:20 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

     Alot of information in this leak, similar to the one released yesterday,
     although this one really pushes the "iran is making weapons as we speak"
     line [johnblasing]

     IAEA may show recent bomb-related atom work by Iran

     http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/08/us-iran-nuclear-iaea-idUSTRE7A738S20111108

     VIENNA | Tue Nov 8, 2011 7:56am EST
     (Reuters) - A U.N. nuclear watchdog report due this week is expected to
     show recent activity in Iran that could help in developing nuclear
     bombs, including intelligence about computer modeling of such weapons,
     Western diplomats said on Tuesday.

     "There are bits and pieces of information that go up through 2010," one
     Vienna-based diplomat said.
     If confirmed in this week's keenly awaited document by the International
     Atomic Energy Agency, it could stimulate new debate about a
     controversial U.S. intelligence assessment in 2007 that Iran had halted
     outright "weaponization" work in 2003.
     It would heighten Western suspicions that Iran is resolved to pursue at
     least some of the research and development (R&amp;D) applicable to atom
     bombs, even if Tehran has made no apparent decision to actually build
     them, as diplomats believe.

     "There is still evidence there where I think the agency will be in a
     position to say that they have serious concerns coming up to the present
     day," said another envoy in the Austrian capital, where the IAEA is
     based.

     But Western officials and experts suggested that research and
     experiments pointing to military nuclear aims may not have continued on
     the same scale as before 2003, when Iran started coming under increased
     Western pressure over its nuclear work.

     "Iran is understood to have continued or restarted some R&amp;D activities
     since then," said nuclear proliferation analyst Peter Crail of the
     U.S.-based Arms Control Association, a research and advocacy group.

     Iran denies accusations it is seeking nuclear arms, saying they are
     based on forged documents. It says its uranium enrichment program is
     aimed at generating electricity so that it can export more of its
     abundant oil.

     Many conservative experts criticized the 2007 findings as inaccurate and
     naive, and U.S. intelligence agencies now believe Iranian leaders have
     resumed closed-door debates over the last four years about whether to
     build a nuclear bomb.

     "I suspect that the new IAEA report will play into the hands of U.S.
     conservative and Israeli critics of the 2007 NIE (National Intelligence
     Estimate), who had accused the U.S. intelligence community of playing
     down evidence of clandestine nuclear weapons activities in Iran," said
     Shannon Kile of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
     think tank.

     "SERIOUS SCIENTIFIC INTENT"

     The IAEA report, due to be submitted to member states in the next few
     days, is expected to provide new evidence of explosives and physics
     research suggesting Iran is seeking the capability to design nuclear
     weapons.

     Some of the activities have little application other than atomic
     bomb-making, including computer modeling of a nuclear weapon, sources
     familiar with the document said.

     They said it would support intelligence reports that Iran built a large
     steel container at the Parchin military complex southeast of Tehran for
     the purpose of carrying out tests with high explosives usable for a
     nuclear chain reaction.

     "It is a forensic body of evidence that shows some serious scientific
     intent," one of the Western diplomats said.

     In February, U.S. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said
     Iran was "keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons in part by
     developing various nuclear capabilities that better position it to
     produce such weapons."

     Crail said Clapper's statements were not "inconsistent with the notion
     that some weapons-related R&amp;D has resumed which is not part of a
     determined, integrated weapons-development program of the type that Iran
     maintained prior to 2003."

     Mark Fitzpatrick, a director of the International Institute for
     Strategic Studies, said it was too early to say whether the IAEA report
     will cast doubt on the 2007 NIE assessment.

     "The U.S. intelligence community already has the information in the IAEA
     report," Fitzpatrick said, adding that Clapper as recently as March
     confirmed the belief that Iran had not made a decision to restart its
     nuclear weapons program.

     "The apparent disconnect between that statement and the leaks that have
     come out about the IAEA report probably pertain to the time frame of the
     weapons research and development and the level and scale of the activity
     that the IAEA apparently believes continued after 2003," he said.

     (Editing by Mark Heinrich)

     On 11/07/2011 09:02 AM, Chris Farnham wrote:

               I'm thinking we'll see a bucket load of items out of Iran, the
               US and Europe today regarding the coming IAEA report and all
               the politicing around it. Might as well have them all in one
               place for ease of reading [chris]

       Obviously waaaaay too much info here to rep. The key element of this
       item is the leaking of the info before the release of the report in
       order to prime/set the agenda by focusing on particular aspects and
       findings of the report. this leak is obviously a part of the concerted
       PR operation on behalf of the Israelis, US and possibly some Europeans
       and KSA. The items of the report are secondary in importance to the
       agenda that is being played out here to increase pressure on Iran,
       probably in the attempt to increase sanctions and push it to the top
       of the global consciousness thus giving the US increased leverage to
       bargain the best possible pull out of Iraq/Afghanistan [chris]

       there was a strange report of an anonymous speaker at a forum last
       friday, this may be related to that [johnblasing]

       IAEA says foreign expertise has brought Iran to threshold of nuclear
       capability

       http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iaea-says-foreign-expertise-has-brought-iran-to-threshold-of-nuclear-capability/2011/11/05/gIQAc6hjtM_print.html

       By Joby Warrick, Monday, November 7, 4:41 AM

       Intelligence provided to U.N. nuclear officials shows that Iran's
       government has mastered the critical steps needed to build a nuclear
       weapon, receiving assistance from foreign scientists to overcome key
       technical hurdles, according to Western diplomats and nuclear experts
       briefed on the findings.

       Documents and other records provide new details on the role played by
       a former Soviet weapons scientist who allegedly tutored Iranians over
       several years on building high-precision detonators of the kind used
       to trigger a nuclear chain reaction, the officials and experts said.
       Crucial technology linked to experts in Pakistan and North Korea also
       helped propel Iran to the threshold of nuclear capability, they added.

       The officials, citing secret intelligence provided over several years
       to the International Atomic Energy Agency, said the records reinforce
       concerns that Iran continued to conduct weapons-related research after
       2003 - when, U.S. intelligence agencies believe, Iranian leaders
       halted such experiments in response to international and domestic
       pressures.

       The U.N. nuclear watchdog is due to release a report this week laying
       out its findings on Iran's efforts to obtain sensitive nuclear
       technology. Fears that Iran could quickly build an atomic bomb if it
       chooses to has fueled anti-Iran rhetoric and new threats of military
       strikes. Some U.S. arms-control groups have cautioned against what
       they fear could be an overreaction to the report, saying there is
       still time to persuade Iran to change its behavior.

       Iranian officials expressed indifference about the report.

       "Let them publish and see what happens," said Iran's foreign minister
       and former nuclear top official, Ali Akbar Salehi, the semiofficial
       Mehr News Agency reported Saturday.

       Salehi said that the controversy over Iran's nuclear program is "100
       percent political" and that the IAEA is "under pressure from foreign
       powers."

       `Never really stopped'

       Although the IAEA has chided Iran for years to come clean about a
       number of apparently weapons-related scientific projects, the new
       disclosures fill out the contours of an apparent secret research
       program that was more ambitious, more organized and more successful
       than commonly suspected. Beginning early in the last decade and
       apparently resuming - though at a more measured pace - after a pause
       in 2003, Iranian scientists worked concurrently across multiple
       disciplines to obtain key skills needed to make and test a nuclear
       weapon that could fit inside the country's long-range missiles, said
       David Albright, a former IAEA official who has reviewed the
       intelligence files.
       "The program never really stopped," said Albright, president of the
       Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security. The
       institute performs widely respected independent analyses of nuclear
       programs in countries around the world, often drawing from IAEA data.

       "After 2003, money was made available for research in areas that sure
       look like nuclear weapons work but were hidden within civilian
       institutions," Albright said.

       U.S. intelligence officials maintain that Iran's leaders have not
       decided whether to build nuclear weapons but are intent on gathering
       all the components and skills so they can quickly assemble a bomb if
       they choose to. Iran has consistently maintained that its nuclear
       activities are peaceful and intended only to generate electricity.

       The IAEA has declined to comment on the intelligence it has received
       from member states, including the United States, pending the release
       of its report.

       But some of the highlights were described in a presentation by
       Albright at a private conference of intelligence professionals last
       week. PowerPoint slides from the presentation were obtained by The
       Washington Post, and details of Albright's summary were confirmed by
       two European diplomats privy to the IAEA's internal reports. The two
       officials spoke on the condition of anonymity, in keeping with
       diplomatic protocol.

       Albright said IAEA officials, based on the totality of the evidence
       given to them, have concluded that Iran "has sufficient information to
       design and produce a workable implosion nuclear device" using highly
       enriched uranium as its fissile core. In the presentation, he
       described intelligence that points to a formalized and rigorous
       process for gaining all the necessary skills for weapons-building,
       using native talent as well as a generous helping of foreign
       expertise.

       "The [intelligence] points to a comprehensive project structure and
       hierarchy with clear responsibilities, timelines and deliverables,"
       Albright said, according to the notes from the presentation.

       Key outside assistance

       According to Albright, one key breakthrough that has not been publicly
       described was Iran's success in obtaining design information for a
       device known as an R265 generator. The device is a hemispherical
       aluminum shell with an intricate array of high explosives that
       detonate with split-second precision. These charges compress a small
       sphere of enriched uranium or plutonium to trigger a nuclear chain
       reaction.

       Creating such a device is a formidable technical challenge, and Iran
       needed outside assistance in designing the generator and testing its
       performance, Albright said.

       According to the intelligence provided to the IAEA, key assistance in
       both areas was provided by Vyacheslav Danilenko, a former Soviet
       nuclear scientist who was contracted in the mid-1990s by Iran's
       Physics Research Center, a facility linked to the country's nuclear
       program. Documents provided to the U.N. officials showed that
       Danilenko offered assistance to the Iranians over at least five years,
       giving lectures and sharing research papers on developing and testing
       an explosives package that the Iranians apparently incorporated into
       their warhead design, according to two officials with access to the
       IAEA's confidential files.

       Danilenko's role was judged to be so critical that IAEA investigators
       devoted considerable effort to obtaining his cooperation, the two
       officials said. The scientist acknowledged his role but said he
       thought his work was limited to assisting civilian engineering
       projects, the sources said.

       There is no evidence that Russian government officials knew of
       Danilenko's activities in Iran. E-mails requesting comment from
       Russian officials in Washington and Moscow were not returned. Efforts
       to reach Danilenko through his former company were not successful.

       Iran relied on foreign experts to supply mathematical formulas and
       codes for theoretical design work - some of which appear to have
       originated in North Korea, diplomats and weapons experts say.
       Additional help appears to have come from the father of Pakistan's
       nuclear program, Abdul Qadeer Khan, whose design for a device known as
       a neutron initiator was found in Iran, the sources said. Khan is known
       to have provided nuclear blueprints to Libya that included a neutron
       initiator, a device that shoots a stream of atomic particles into a
       nuclear weapon's fissile core at the start of the nuclear chain
       reaction.

       One Iranian document provided to the IAEA portrayed Iranian scientists
       as discussing plans to conduct a four-year study of neutron initiators
       beginning in 2007, four years after Iran was said to have halted such
       research.

       "It is unknown if it commenced or progressed as planned," Albright
       said.
       The disclosures come against a backdrop of new threats of military
       strikes on Iran. Israeli newspapers reported last week that there is
       high-level government support in Israel for a military attack on
       Iran's nuclear installations.

       "One of the problems with such open threats of military action is that
       it furthers the drift towards a military conflict and makes it more
       difficult to dial down tensions," said Peter Crail, a nonproliferation
       analyst with the Arms Control Association, a Washington advocacy
       group. "It also risks creating an assumption that we can always end
       Iran's nuclear program with a few airstrikes if nothing else works.
       That's simply not the case."

       Special correspondent Thomas Erdbrink in Tehran contributed to this
       report.

         (Corr) Cleric asks IAEA head to avoid "lies"against Iran, save
         dignity of Agency

         At 0522 gmt, IRTV1 started airing the Id al-Adha prayer sermons in
         Tehran by Ayatollah Seyyed Ahmad Khatami live. Ayatollah Khatami
         listed 10 types of plots that America and Israel have resorted to
         against Iran during the past 32 year.

         He said: "During the past 32 years, we have witnessed different
         types of plots of the global arrogance against us, especially of the
         US and its illegitimate child, the Zionist regime. I have written
         down 10 types of these [plots] - seven of which refer to the
         domestic field and three others the foreign field."

         He described "ethnic wars" as the first type of plots. Then he spoke
         about "assassinations" and said: "Over 12,000 people have been
         assassinated by the US and its agents in this country" He added that
         Iran possesses 100 "undeniable documents" that prove America's
         involvement in the assassinations inside the country and outside of
         it, in other countries.

         He referred to the "eight-year imposed war" (Iraq-Iran war) as the
         third type of plot and termed "influences up to the level of the
         president" as the fourth type of plots (reference to the 2009
         presidential candidate Mirhoseyn Musavi).

         Describing "coups" as the fifth type of plot, he said that six coups
         were initiated by the US in Iran, all of which, he said were
         "foiled" with the help of God.

         He called the "soft warfare and"1388 sedition" (2009 post-poll
         protests) are the sixth and seventh types of America's and Israel's
         plots against Iran.

         Regarding the foreign types of plots, Khatami said: "Eight:
         Intrusion into Afghanistan aimed at creating a base against the
         Islamic Iran. Nine: Intrusion into Iraq to establish control over
         Iran. 10: New Middle East, which was aimed at curbing the wave of
         the huge Islamic Revolution."

         He added that all these plots were "foiled" with the help of God.

         Source: Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1, Tehran, in
         Persian 0525gmt 07 Nov 11

         BBC Mon Alert ME1 MEPol sh

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

         Top cleric lists 10 types of US, Israel "plots" against Iran

         At 0522 gmt, IRTV1 started airing the Id al-Adha prayer sermons in
         Tehran by Ayatollah Seyyed Ahmad Khatami live. Ayatollah Khatami
         listed 10 types of plots that America and Israel have resorted to
         against Iran during the past 32 year.

         He said: "During the past 32 years, we have witnessed different
         types of plots of the global arrogance against us, especially of the
         US and its illegitimate child, the Zionist regime. I have written
         down 10 types of these [plots] - seven of which refer to the
         domestic field and three others the foreign field."

         He described "ethnic wars" as the first type of plots. Then he spoke
         about "assassinations" and said: "Over 12,000 people have been
         assassinated by the US and its agents in this country" He added that
         Iran possesses 100 "undeniable documents" that prove America's
         involvement in the assassinations inside the country and outside of
         it, in other countries.

         He referred to the "eight-year imposed war" (Iraq-Iran war) as the
         third type of plot and termed "influences up to the level of the
         president" as the fourth type of plots (reference to the 2009
         presidential candidate Mirhoseyn Musavi).

         Describing "coups" as the fifth type of plot, he said that six coups
         were initiated by the US in Iran, all of which, he said were
         "foiled" with the help of God.

         He called the "soft warfare and"1388 sedition" (2009 post-poll
         protests) are the sixth and seventh types of America's and Israel's
         plots against Iran.

         Regarding the foreign types of plots, Khatami said: "Eight:
         Intrusion into Afghanistan aimed at creating a base against the
         Islamic Iran. Nine: Intrusion into Iraq to establish control over
         Iran. 10: New Middle East, which was aimed at curbing the wave of
         the huge Islamic Revolution."

         He added that all these plots were "foiled" with the help of God.

         Source: Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1, Tehran, in
         Persian 0522gmt 07 Nov 11

         BBC Mon Alert ME1 MEPol sh

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

           More anti-Western remarks attributed to Khatami [chris]

           Top clear asks IAEA chief to avoid "lies" against Iran, save
           dignity of Agency

           During the Id al-Adha sermons at Tehran University being aired
           live by IRTV1, Ayatollah Seyyed Ahmad Khatami referred to the
           upcoming IAEA report on Iran nuclear programme and addressed the
           Secretary-General of the Agency [Yukiya Amano], saying: "Do not
           insult the dignity of the International Atomic Energy Agency with
           your conduct."

           He added that if he [Amano] is used as a "week tool of the US" and
           acts against the "independent nation" of Iran and "publishes lies"
           in the form of a document then "whatever dignity is left of the
           Agency, will be wiped off."

           Thanking God for his blessings, he further said that all "plots"
           against Iran have always been "nullified".

           He added: "I explicitly tell America that the period of superpower
           has ended [for you]. America is being considered like an empty
           drum in the world, today. Neither are you the America of the past,
           nor the Islamic Iran is Iran of the past of during the Shah's
           time."

           He added that Iran today is a strong country that can confront any
           plot in a manner that will be a "lesson" for others.

           Source: Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1, Tehran,
           in Persian 0525gmt 07 Nov 11

           BBC Mon Alert ME1 MEPol sh

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

    Iran foreign minister terms Bushehr plant "symbol" of Iran-Russia ties   
                                                                             
    Text of report by Iranian official government news agency IRNA website   
                                                                             
    Tehran, 6 November, IRNA: Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said here on 
    Sunday [6 November] that Bushehr nuclear power plant is a symbol of      
    Iran-Russia cooperation.                                                 
                                                                             
    He made the remark in a meeting with new Russian Ambassador to Iran Leon 
    Jagarian, who submitted a copy of his credentials to Salehi.             
                                                                             
    "Bushehr power plant as a symbol of Iran-Russia cooperation proves that  
    the two countries can exchange views and cooperate at regional and       
    international levels.                                                    
                                                                             
    Pointing to the Iran-Russia excellent relations, Salehi said             
    unfortunately the volume of trade exchange between the two countries is  
    not enough while they have high potentials in this regard.               
                                                                             
    Expressing Iran's readiness to increase the current volume of economic   
    exchange by 10bn dollars, he said the two countries can expand their     
    cooperation in such fields as politics, economy, trade, culture, oil and 
    gas and power plant construction.                                        
                                                                             
    Jagarian described the recent meeting between the Iranian and Russian    
    presidents in Astana, Kazakhstan as a new phase in the two countries'    
    relations.                                                               
                                                                             
    He also expressed his country's readiness to cooperate with Iran at      
    regional and international levels.                                       
                                                                             
    Source: Islamic Republic News Agency website, Tehran, in English 1613gmt 
    06 Nov 11                                                                
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEPol sh                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

             Not on IRNA english yet - CR

    Attacking Iran would make US, Israel "pay heavy price" - official        
                                                                             
    Excerpt from report by Iranian news channel Press TV website             
                                                                             
    A member of Iran's Assembly of Expert says that the United States and    
    Israel will have to pay a heavy price for any military attack on Iran's  
    nuclear facilities.                                                      
                                                                             
    Seyyed Mahmud Alavi told IRNA on Sunday [6 November] that Washington and 
    Tel Aviv are aware of the fact that putting their anti-Iran threats into 
    practice would cost them dearly, and thus they would not become involved 
    in such folly.                                                           
                                                                             
    He stated that the US and Israel know that such empty threats cannot     
    intimidate Iran and also know that they would receive a crushing         
    response if they ever attack the Islamic Republic.                       
                                                                             
    [Passage omitted: background information]                                
                                                                             
    Source: Press TV website, Tehran, in English 1419gmt 06 Nov 11           
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEPol sh                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

               Transcript Ehud Barak interview
               Page last updated at 11:09 GMT, Sunday, 6 November 2011
               PLEASE NOTE "THE ANDREW MARR SHOW" MUST BE CREDITED IF ANY
               PART OF THIS TRANSCRIPT IS USED
               http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/andrew_marr_show/9632770.stm
               JEREMY VINE:

               Now by any standards Ehud Barak has had an astonishing career
               serving his country. Israel's Prime Minister during the Camp
               David negotiations with Yasser Arafat now serves as both
               Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister in the current
               government. Before entering politics, he was one of the
               country's most decorated soldiers carrying out the kind of
               military ops that are now the stuff of legend among many
               Israelis. So a man of peace or a man of war? When I met him in
               London recently, I began by asking why his government has
               authorised the building of more settlements despite
               international criticism.

               EHUD BARAK:

               We are building in Jerusalem. It's our capital. We are
               building in the Jewish neighbourhoods of Jerusalem. It's a
               city of 700,000 people. You have to build and we will not
               accept anyone has the right to intervene in this. And we ...

               JEREMY VINE:

               (over) Well that is seen as speeding up, isn't it? That's seen
               as acceleration.

               EHUD BARAK:

               (over) No, it's not. No speeding up ... It's about numbers and
               pace, numbers per unit time. When Olmert was Prime Minister
               five years ago, we were building our defence minister twice
               the rate we are building now. When I was Prime Minister ten
               years ago, we were building four times the rate we are
               building right now. So it's not about the pace.

               JEREMY VINE:

               But why not ... Again it's about the symbolism. Why not just
               stop for a while because the other side see this as getting in
               the way, don't they?

               EHUD BARAK:

               No, no, the other side plays with it as a kind of manipulation
               to put certain preconditions into the dialogue. The reason
               that Olmert's government and my government could do it is
               because somehow we managed to convince the rest of the world
               that we are genuine in our talks and now we are facing more
               sophisticated Palestinian group which feels the zeitgeist
               behind them. They feel that they have good will from many
               international bodies, so they try to play with this issue of
               settlement. It really shouldn't matter because ...

               JEREMY VINE:

               Well you said something very, very interesting there - the
               phrases you've used - where you say you're dealing with a
               sophisticated Palestinian leadership now and they're very
               zeitgeisty and I couldn't have put it better myself in these
               questions. They're getting world opinion behind them, aren't
               they?

               EHUD BARAK:

               Yuh, yuh. We have to work properly to allow our people, our
               kind of spokesmen to talk more often to others, but it won't
               solve the issue. It cannot ...

               JEREMY VINE:

               (over) Are you frustrated at that?

               EHUD BARAK:

               I am a little bit frustrated by the fact that we cannot
               convince even some of our friends.

               JEREMY VINE:

               Okay, just to be clear. You accept that it strengthens Hamas
               if you go on building these settlements or not?

               EHUD BARAK:

               I don't think it relates to Hamas. Hamas basically is
               challenging Abu Mazen and the Palestinian authority. They are
               turning to terror. We cannot negotiate with them. Hamas are
               shooting at us rockets. You know just last week we got dozens
               of rockets in our southern part of the country. One man,
               father of four, was killed. That's something that cannot go
               together with peacemaking.

               JEREMY VINE:

               Let me change the subject.

               EHUD BARAK:

               (over) So it will be a challenge for Abu Mazen to take control
               over his own political system.

               JEREMY VINE:
               Alright, alright, I want to just move on because we haven't
               got much time. I want to talk to you about Iran as well. And I
               gather if we had the Israeli newspapers here and we opened
               them up, we would see that everyone in Israel is now thinking
               that you're getting ready to attack Iran. Is that right? Is
               that what people are saying?

               EHUD BARAK:

               Believe me, don't ... I do not try to underestimate the nature
               of the Iranian threat. That's a major threat for the stability
               of the whole region, probably of the whole world. A nuclear
               Iran - and they are determined to reach nuclear military
               capability - can open a major arms race, nuclear arms race in
               the whole Middle East. It can change the effectiveness of
               their supporting and their co-sponsoring of terror all around
               the region. They can ...

               JEREMY VINE:

               (over) Which is why the Israeli papers are saying aha, you're
               about to strike on them.

               EHUD BARAK:

               No, but I am telling it for years now. And they will
               intimidate neighbours in a much more effective way, especially
               when America and others are moving out of the region. I hope
               that the IAEA Report next week will tell the whole world a
               little bit more explicitly what they are really doing in
               regard to their nuclear plan.

               JEREMY VINE:

               (over) This is the narrative that's coming together. It's the
               missile test. It's the long range bombing plan. It's the IAEA
               Report which you mentioned. So they may say that Iran is
               getting closer to a bomb.

               EHUD BARAK:

               We strongly believe that sanctions are effective or could be
               effective if they are little and paralysing enough, that
               diplomacy could work if enough unity could be synchronised
               between the major players, but that no option should be
               removed from the table.

               JEREMY VINE:

               You have an amazing military record, and for those who don't
               know it, 19... - correct me if I'm wrong here - 1972 led the
               mission to free hostages on a Sabena flight; 1973, I read
               somewhere you dressed as a woman to assassinate - you're
               nodding - members of the PLO.

               EHUD BARAK:

               (over) Not as a hobby, yuh.

               JEREMY VINE:

               Okay. A scene in the film Munich reflected that. You were
               involved in Operation Entebbe in 1976; helped dismantle the
               Palestinian terror cell known as Black September. I'm thinking
               you're not really into diplomacy here. You would like to
               attack Iran.

               EHUD BARAK:

               No, I was also Foreign Affairs Minister of Israel and Prime
               Minister. In the last 15 years I didn't shot a single shot at
               anyone and I played a lot round the diplomatic saloons and the
               TV interviews as well. You know it's too serious. Israel is
               there. A person cannot choose his parents and a nation cannot
               choose its neighbours. We are living in a tough neighbourhood.
               No mercy for the weak, no second opportunity for those who
               cannot defend themselves. We would love to have the Canadians
               as our neighbours, but unfortunately the Americans got them.
               It's a tough neighbourhood and we have to be strong.

               JEREMY VINE:

               (over) One more because if you suddenly attack Iran next week,
               I want to make sure we've asked every question here. Have you
               got British support for that - for flying over them and
               dropping a bomb on their nuclear reactors?

               EHUD BARAK:

               I'm not going even to respond to this. May I say we are not
               ... don't worry about your next week programme, but the
               Iranian challenge is serious. This is something that should be
               prevented from happening. We have to stay there. We are
               strong. Israel is the strongest country a thousand miles
               around Jerusalem. We plan to remain the strongest country
               around. But we are at the same time peaceful. We are ready to
               make peace at any moment with any one of our neighbours.

               JEREMY VINE:

               So pretty cautious. Ehud Barak there, Israel's Defence
               Minister. No options ruled out on Iran.

               INTERVIEW ENDS

 --
 Clint Richards
 Global Monitor
 clint.richards@stratfor.com
 cell: 81 080 4477 5316
 office: 512 744 4300 ex:40841

               Iran Calligrapher's Association of North America, according to
               Google. Possibly not the entity being referred to below,
               though [chris]

               No idea what ICANA is... - CR

    Nuclear talks possible only if IAEA submits "honest" report - Iran       
    official                                                                 
                                                                             
    Text of report by Iranian news channel Press TV website                  
                                                                             
    An Iranian lawmaker says Iran has nothing to hide regarding its nuclear  
    programme and Tehran will only participate in negotiations if the UN     
    atomic agency is "honest" in its reports.                                
                                                                             
    Deputy Chairman of Iran's Majlis (parliament) National Security and      
    Foreign Policy Committee Esma'il Kowsari said that if the International  
    Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) resorts to deception then Iran "will set     
    conditions for talks."                                                   
                                                                             
    He went on to say that so long as the IAEA submits to the will of        
    arrogant powers particularly Washington, the agency's reports will       
    always be compiled to portray Iran in a negative light.                  
                                                                             
    "While the US has between 7,000 to 10,000 nuclear warheads and no other  
    country has atrocities such as Nagasaki and Hiroshima on its record, the 
    agency makes no effort to act against it (the US) and does not even dare 
    write a report against it," ICANA quoted him as saying on Sunday.        
                                                                             
    The IAEA director-general Yukiya Amano is scheduled to submit his new    
    report on Iran's nuclear case to IAEA member states on 8 November 2011.  
                                                                             
    However, Amano's visit to Washington for talks with US officials ahead   
    of the publication of the report has cast grave suspicion over its       
    objectivity and sincerity.                                               
                                                                             
    Iran has always rejected US allegations that it is pursuing a military   
    nuclear program and asserted the right to develop and acquire nuclear    
    technology for peaceful purposes as a signatory to the Non-Proliferation 
    Treaty [NPT].                                                            
                                                                             
    Source: Press TV website, Tehran, in English 1925gmt 06 Nov 11           
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEPol sh                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

               On 11/6/11 9:43 PM, Chris Farnham wrote:

                 al-Ahkbar isn't in english - CR

                   Iran's Ahmadinejad defiant as U.S. raises heat-paper
                   http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/irans-ahmadinejad-defiant-as-us-raises-heat-paper/
                   06 Nov 2011 23:19

                   CAIRO, Nov 7 (Reuters) - The United States fears Iran's
                   growing military power because it is now able to compete
                   with Israel and the West, Iranian President Mahmoud
                   Ahmadinejad said in comments carried by an Egyptian
                   newspaper on Monday.

                   Responding to a toughening stance from the United States
                   and Israel against Tehran, Ahmadinejad accused Washington
                   of inventing conspiracies to discredit Iran and sowing
                   discord with its near neighbour Saudi Arabia.

                   "Yes, we have military capabilities that are different
                   from any other country in the region," Egyptian daily
                   al-Akhbar cited Ahmadinejad as saying. "Iran is increasing
                   in capability and advancement and therefore we are able to
                   compete with Israel and the West and especially the United
                   States."

                   "The U.S. fears Iran's capability," he told the paper.
                   "Iran will not permit (anyone from making) a move against
                   it."
                   Iran's Islamic rulers, who say Israel has no right to
                   exist, deny accusations that they are seeking nuclear
                   weapons and have warned they will respond to any attacks
                   by striking at Israel and U.S. interests in the Gulf.

                   A senior U.S. military official said on Friday Iran had
                   become the biggest threat to the United States and
                   Israel's president said the military option to stop the
                   Islamic republic from obtaining nuclear weapons was
                   nearer.

                   Ahmadinejad repeated that Iran does not own a nuclear
                   bomb, but said Israel's end was inevitable.
                   The U.N. nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, is expected this week
                   to issue its most detailed report yet on research in Iran
                   seen as geared to developing atomic bombs.

                   "It is Israel that has about 300 nuclear warheads. Iran is
                   only keen to have nuclear capability for peaceful means,"
                   he said, accusing Washington of lumping Iran with Syria,
                   the Islamist Hamas movement that rules Gaza and Hezbollah
                   in Lebanon.

                   The U.S. portrays those four as "the Axis of Evil to save
                   the Zionist entity (Israel). But the Zionists are bound to
                   go out of existence," he said.

                   Responding to a U.S. claim that Iran was involved in a
                   plot to kill the Saudi ambassador to Washington,
                   Ahmadinejad said: "Iran is farthest from thinking of
                   carrying out such crimes but the U.S. is always inventing
                   conspiracies against Iran".

                   "The U.S. fears any friendship between us and Saudi Arabia
                   and therefore incites disagreements," he said. "To stop
                   the U.S. in its tracks we must deepen the elements of
                   friendship... We are ready for this and the relation
                   between Saudi and Iran already exists and has not been cut
                   off." (Reporting by Marwa Awad; Writing by Tom Pfeiffer;
                   Editing by Matthew Jones)

 --
 Clint Richards
 Global Monitor
 clint.richards@stratfor.com
 cell: 81 080 4477 5316
 office: 512 744 4300 ex:40841

 --
 Clint Richards
 Global Monitor
 clint.richards@stratfor.com
 cell: 81 080 4477 5316
 office: 512 744 4300 ex:40841

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +216 22 73 23 19
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 --
 Marc Lanthemann
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 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-08 17:05:21</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/173467_more-more-g3-iran-un-mil-iran-iaea-report-leaked-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>173931</id>
    <title>[MESA] SYRIA/KSA/LEBANON - Quotes on the Syria-Arab League Peace
	Plan
</title>
    <description>    This includes highlights of the statements from Syrian media and two     
    different Saudi papers.  Just so we can keep track of the overt Saudi    
    sentiment regarding the Arab League plan and Syria.                      
    BBC Monitoring quotes from Middle East Arabic press for 8 Nov 11         
                                                                             
    The following is a selection of quotes from editorials and comment       
    published in the 8 November 2011 editions of Arabic language newspapers  
    in the Middle East and North Africa, as available to the BBC at 0800     
    gmt. Any material from the previous day is indicated as such. Quotes     
    from Palestinian newspapers and those published in the UK are being      
    filed separately.                                                        
                                                                             
                          Syria-Arab League peace plan                       
                                                                             
    Syria's Al-Thawrah: [govt-owned]: "Straightforward and without any       
    embarrassment and in the midst of steps taken by Syria to stop violence, 
    Washington publicly and arrogantly calls on Syrian armed men to not      
    'surrender their arms' in an attempt to foil efforts made to end the     
    fabricated crisis in Syria. What does this mean? It simply means it is   
    new evidence to direct US involvement in violence and sedition in Syria  
    and its encouragement of armed groups to go ahead with their criminal    
    acts against the Syrian people." (Commentary by Yunis Khalaf-            
    "Exceptional US sponsorship")                                            
                                                                             
    Saudi Al-Watan: [privately-owned, pro-govt]: "Time is gradually running  
    out for the Syrian regime and the gap is widening between the political  
    reforms that the Arab League has demanded to stop violence in Syria and  
    measures expected to be adopted by the emergency ministerial meeting of  
    Arab foreign ministers on 12 November... We warn the Syrian regime not   
    against protesters' call for international intervention but for regime's 
    pursuit to get Syria involved in a fierce Iran, particularly in light of 
    the standoff between Iran and the West over the former's nuclear         
    programme... The Arab League peace plan in Syria and Damascus' approval  
    of it are the last lifeboat for the Syrian regime. The Syrian regime     
    should resort to real national dialogue and recognize the opposition as  
    an influential part of the society." (Editorial- "Syria, racing against  
    time")                                                                   
                                                                             
    Saudi Al-Riyadh: [privately-owned, pro-govt]: "The Arab League will hold 
    a meeting on Syria on 12 November. However, does it have the mechanism   
    to put pressure to bear on Damascus? Let's suppose that an Arab League   
    resolution would be made suspending Syria's membership in the Arab       
    organization. I think the maximum the Arab League can do in this regard  
    is to move the issue of protecting the Syrian people to the UN Security  
    Council to take resolutions under an Arab umbrella... Evidence to        
    failure of the Arab League project is that it is objected to by the      
    Syrian opposition inside and outside the country. The Syrian opposition  
    claims that the Arab League gave the Syrian regime a chance to bluff     
    international public opinion... Let's see the Arab stance represented by 
    the Arab League. However, let's also think about the league's role in    
    Tunisian, Egyptian, Libyan, Yemeni and Syrian uprisings." (Editorial-    
    "Damascus, hiding true political motives")                               
                                                                             
    Lebanon's Al-Safir: [independent, leftist]: "The Syrian opposition       
    rushed yesterday into announcing that the Arab League peace plan on      
    Syria has failed. Moreover, it called yesterday for moving beyond Arab   
    solutions to the crisis; internationalization... Arabs and the           
    international community are monitoring the situation in Syria from a     
    distance and they don't have the desire or ability to intervene there.   
    The Syrian regime understands this fact very well... For many reasons,   
    the Syrian regime looks more self-confident because it believes that the 
    battle is in its final conclusive stages." (Commentary by Sati           
    Nur-al-Din- "Light at beginning of tunnel")                              
                                                                             
                                  Iran-Nuclear                               
                                                                             
    Qata r's Al-Watan: [privately-owned, pro-govt]: "It seems that the       
    Iranian nuclear crisis is on its way for escalation anew thanks to an    
    extensive Israeli propaganda campaign ahead of an IAEA report that is    
    expected to criticize Iran with harshest possible terms. As per leaked   
    information circulated in Israeli media, Western experts, who have       
    looked into the intelligence bits of the IAEA report, believe that Iran  
    has got the know-how and technology required to build a nuclear bomb     
    within months... It also seems that the IAEA under its new director      
    general Yukiya Amano would be stricter in dealing with Iran compared to  
    its former director general Muhammad al-Barad'i." (Commentary by Mazin   
    Hammad- "IAEA, Iranian bomb")                                            
                                                                             
    UAE's Al-Khalij: [indep,leftist]: "It seems that the most prominent      
    feature in the 'war of nerves' that is currently shaping in the media    
    about the possibility of dealing a unilateral Israeli military blow to   
    Iran in cooperation with the USA or Britain or other allies is that      
    Washington is officially avoiding any talk about this strike. US         
    President Obama just talked about need to put pressure on Tehran... The  
    least Obama needs ahead of next year's presidential polls is to take a   
    decision regarding war on Iran given the chronic economic crisis that    
    his country is facing, which makes it impossible for the USA to cover    
    the expenses of a fourth war." (Commentary by Ma'mun al-Husayni- "Israel 
    wars, exporting crises")                                                 
                                                                             
    Source: Quotes package from BBC Monitoring, in English 08 Nov 11         
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MECai wm                                                     

              A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011
</description>
    <date>2011-11-08 22:21:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/173931_-mesa-syria-ksa-lebanon-quotes-on-the-syria-arab-league.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mesa@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ashley.harrison@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:mesa@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>175366</id>
    <title>Fwd: Emre's new sources - Source update
</title>
    <description>   Sources

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Meredith Friedman" &lt;mfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Emre Dogru" &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;, "scott stewart"
   &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, December 22, 2010 4:45:51 PM
   Subject: RE: Emre's new sources - Source update

   Good job Emre - we'll send you to more conferences I think:)

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Emre Dogru [mailto:emre.dogru@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, December 22, 2010 2:57 AM
   To: scott stewart; Meredith Friedman
   Subject: Emre's new sources - Source update
   Hey Meredith and Scott, I would like to give you a brief update about my
   new sources after the security conference that I attended this past
   weekend. (Meredith, I asked Scott to give me permission to attend this
   conference in November to expand my source network). List below does not
   include all new sources, but those who can and willing to cooperate. I
   believe these new sources will enhance our ability to gather information
   on technical issues such as energy, military and foreign trade.

   Cheers,
   Emre

   Source: One guy and one lady from Turkish State petroleum company (TPAO).
   Guy is an expert on energy security in the Middle East and the lady works
   on the Caucasus, Central Europe and Black Sea. They both are responsible
   for natural gas and oil.
   Status: They are really willing to cooperate and at the end of the
   conference we have a personal relationship. Will be exchanging views and
   information with them in the future. I am pretty confident that they will
   provide us valuable information. They also told me that they will talk to
   their superior this week to buy a Stratfor institutional subscription. I
   will let you know when I hear from them.

   Source: Expert in the Turkish army's strategic research center.
   Status: Willing to cooperate. Exchanged contact information. But I'm not
   sure about his qualifications.

   Source: Turkish air force official, head of strategic planning. He says he
   writes speech notes for air force commander when he attends national
   security council.
   Status: He was very willing to talk during lunch and dinner. He said he
   would be happy to provide information to me if I've questions.

   Source: Turkish diplomat at Turkish FM's NATO department.
   Status: Promised each other to exchange information. I know many people
   from NATO department but could get in touch with him if needed.

   Source: Expert in Undersecretary for Foreign Trade.
   Status: I didn't meet this guy at the security conference. I knew him from
   my undergraduate studies. We met in a reception at least five years ago. I
   had to get some information from foreign trade institution for a special
   report that I will be working this week. He  helped me to get in touch
   with people could answer my questions, who gave me tons of information for
   my research. They said I could ask them anything that I would like to know
   in the future.

   Source update: My main Kurdish source (TR 705), who informed us about PKK
   ceasefires three times in the past, has become a member of the Turkish
   main opposition party's (CHP) leadership as a result of the congress that
   was held this past weekend.

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-22 16:03:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 02:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/175366_fwd-emre-s-new-sources-source-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>177382</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
</title>
    <description>   The thing about protests in Europe is that Europeans can protest like it's
   their job. Protests happen very frequently and security forces as well as
   politicians give protesters a very long leash. And typically, protesters
   remain peaceful in return. I don't know much about Spanish politics, but
   from watching tons of protests in Europe, I know that it would take a lot
   for any protests to rise to the level or effecting real political change.

   Tactically, these are the thing we want to pay attention to for protests:

   Where are the protests being held? Are the protesters wandering loosely
   around in the streets or are they tightly congealed in one central spot to
   show how massive they are for the cameramen? It sounds like the 15-M
   started figuring out in May that amassing your forces in one spot is a
   good tactic for force multiplication. Where is the largest public square
   in Madrid? Is it Puerta del Sol or is there another bigger one? Do we have
   pictures from those last protests to assess approximately how many people
   showed up?

   Is the pre-election rally ban a hard law on the books or is it just more
   of a tradition? Do police have the legal authority to break up protests
   leading up to the election or is it murky? How many days previous to the
   election is this ban in place? Have security forces given any indication
   of whether they will allow these protests or shut them down? Is there any
   precedent for breaking this ban?

   What do we know about 15-M? Do they have any mainstream political support?
   If they don't, who's in the best position to exploit the attention they
   could potentially grab with their protests?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Christoph Helbling" &lt;christoph.helbling@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Friday, November 11, 2011 8:02:28 AM
   Subject: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters

   There are just so many countries in Europe and each one could spark a new
   'little' European crisis.
   The scheduled Spanish protests next week caught my attention while a I was
   writing up the calendar. The protesters already have their square, what if
   a protester dies next week?
   (Might be taking it too far but still worth thinking about)

   Potential discussion:

   Six days before the Spanish general elections on Nov. 20 protesters plan
   to hold rallies at over 100 locations in Madrid, disrespecting the
   pre-election rally ban. On Twitter and Facebook, some activists called for
   a rally in the Puerta del Sol square on November 19, normally a day of
   "reflection" ahead of the vote, during which political action is usually
   banned.
   The a**indignantsa** or 15-M as the protesters call the movements, started
   their protests May 15 at Puerta del Sol square in Madrid protesting
   against state spending cuts, unemployment and corruption. The movement
   brought tens of thousands to the streets days before the local election
   May 22, and made headlines by maintaining protest camps at city squares
   around the country. It is a relatively well organized movement with the
   Asamblea Sol that acts as organizer (therefore different from the occupy
   movement). The 15-M movement was formed in reaction to Spain's high youth
   unemployment (46%!) and dire future prospects for the young.
   At first the movement was seen as too idealistic and heterogeneous, but it
   has recently been influencing the political discourse. The politicians
   are  trying to appeal to its supporters ahead of the parliamentary
   elections on November 20. The movements response to this is: "If citizens
   should hear the parties' messages, it is also time for the parties to
   listen to the citizens from whom, we fear, they are so separated"
   Over the last couple of weeks Spain hasna**t received a lot of attention
   because everybody concentrated on Greece and Italy. No outside officials
   have been applying pressure on Spain and therefore the protesters dona**t
   really blame outside forces for the miserable state the country finds
   itself in. The protesters are mostly young and feel misrepresented by the
   political elite. It is unlikely that the Spanish conservatives, who will
   probably win the elections, are able to incorporate the wishes of the
   youth that is protesting. Further, since the movements plan to disrespect
   rally bans it will be interesting to see how the authorities will react.
   Will they try to stop the protesters?
   So far the European crisis has been on a political and financial level,
   these protests could lead to an open societal crisis in Spain and spark to
   other countries. Are these protests going to breed the future leaders of
   Europe?

 --
 Christoph Helbling
 ADP
 STRATFOR
</description>
    <date>2011-11-11 15:42:12</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-23 07:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/177382_re-discussion-spanish-protesters-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ben.west@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>177586</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
</title>
    <description>   and so back to Christoph's original point, I think we really do need to be
   watching for emerging leaders in these protests who can play the populist
   card and present themselves as the savior from the elites.  this is the
   ideal environment for fresh ideologies and leaders to be born

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: friedman@att.blackberry.net, "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Friday, November 11, 2011 10:25:11 AM
   Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters

    Europeans aren't protesting the approval of a new EU constitutional
   amendment. They're protesting out of fear that they're going to lose the
   roof on their heads.  the more basic your demands, the more likely the
   protests will turn violent, and we can already see that the elites
   handling the crisis won't be able to manage this crisis in the end. the
   musical chairs we're seeing right now in the Greek and Italian governments
   is likely only the beginning. we have to see that as the manifestation of
   a much broader crisis in confidence, not on a national level, but on the
   european level.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "George Friedman" &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;
   To: "Analysts Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Friday, November 11, 2011 10:14:24 AM
   Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters

   Europe has not had mass violent protests since the 1960s although it has
   had violence and terrorism. Its been quiet since the 1990s if you ignore
   yugoslavia.

   The europeans regard this new period as normal and the past as irrelevant.
   It seems to me that the radical shifts in structure returns europe to its
   prior state and with it mass violence becomes likely not just possible.
   Europe has a violent history and that history is not so long ago.
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Colby Martin &lt;colby.martin@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 11 Nov 2011 10:10:30 -0600 (CST)
   To: &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
   I am not sure how you can argue European protesters are not going to turn
   to violence and the authorities won't resort to draconian measures to
   suppress them.  Right now the unemployed still have those nice little
   social programs (especially in Spain) to support them so I agree right now
   they should remain low key.  But if the gov't has to reduce those programs
   or cut them altogether, the protests could turn into bad in a hurry.  I
   just want to make sure this isn't the European argument that "they" are
   more civilized, therefore violence is a thing of the past. (I throw up in
   my mouth a little every time a European tells me this)

   On 11/11/11 9:51 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

     I see your point, but what i dont agree with is when we imply that
     protests that happened in Tunisia can be compared to possible future
     ones in Europe. the word protests is very different when you compare
     north africa and european nations. A protest during the Arab spring,
     implied death injured and so on. A protest in europe (i.e Italy and
     Spain) is just a march that isnt a big deal. Rome marches were the same,
     nothing happened despite the fact that the Media made a big deal out of
     literally burnt cars by punks.

     On 11/11/11 9:48 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

       You're changing the argument. Your assertion that things can't spread
       from country to country because they are based on national issues is
       flawed. You have similar economic conditions in almost every European
       country at the moment. The issues aren't the same as what existed in
       the Arab world last winter, and nor are the nature of the regimes in
       power. No one is saying that. What we're saying is that Tunisia
       provides an example of how protest movements have the ability to
       spread to other countries that feature similar socioeconomic
       conditions.

       On 11/11/11 9:38 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

         Protests in Egypt that spread all over the place were based on the
         ability of people to say what they want and be able to get a decent
         rule of law and government. In Europe we have that, unfortunately we
         have a shitty economy, the protests are there but are unrelated
         because each country has its own way to approach the economic
         issues. We wont kill each other like people in north Africa, were
         past that, and again no offense to people from the region. Europeans
         live for the most part in democracies, expressing a discontent
         (which is what is happening now) is different from fighting for your
         freedom (i.e Egypt, Tunisia, Libya)

         On 11/11/11 9:34 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

           Without wading into the particulars of this discussion, I will
           just say that your logic re: national protests not being able to
           spread to other countries is flawed. How were the gripes of
           Egyptians last January related to the national uprising in
           Tunisia? And so on.

           On 11/11/11 9:19 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

             I personally don't agree with this statement "these protests
             could lead to an open societal crisis in Spain and spark to
             other countries". What we have in Europe is NATIONAL protests.
             These protests focus on the NATIONAL parliament and cannot
             therefore spread in Europe. You might have them in several
             countries but i dont think they spread because they are
             unrelated (despite the same economic shitty background) Plus,
             protests of this kind are usually peaceful, there is a decent
             level of understanding within the crowds that protests that
             killing each other isn't going to make a difference. Now we
             might have like always the 20 idiots that ruin it for everyone
             (think of the Rome revolts) but i dont foresee any dead or
             injured people. Protests dont automatically imply "bad" events
             to come

             On 11/11/11 8:02 AM, Christoph Helbling wrote:

               these protests could lead to an open societal crisis in Spain
               and spark to other countries. Are these protests going to
               breed the future leaders of Europe?

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-23 07:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/177586_re-discussion-spanish-protesters-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>177614</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
</title>
    <description>   violence is human nature. you dont "learn" how to stop it. you learn how
   to use a compass, you learn how to build a nuclear reactor, how to
   manufacture birth control. societies don't "learn" their way out of hate
   and fear of the unknown. humans have and will continue to react violently
   against it. urbanized intellectuals can be some of the most savage
   individuals when their systems break down. there is a very thin veil
   between civilization and savagery.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Carlos Lopez Portillo" &lt;carlos.lopezportillo@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: analysts@stratfor.com
   Sent: Friday, November 11, 2011 10:23:28 AM
   Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters

   I agree in this one. Maybe they have learned from history, maybe they
   haven't, and will experience new things in a new developing world context,
   with more technology, communications, sort of global logic. Recent and
   historical events, as Bayless said, can have connections (1960s-1970s
   social movements), that's for granted (French Revolution ideas is a very
   good example). But I think that in this particular protest in Spain, it
   will be more a national type of unrest belonging to Spanish issues more
   than a viral-European one.

   On 11/11/11 10:14 AM, George Friedman wrote:

     Europe has not had mass violent protests since the 1960s although it has
     had violence and terrorism. Its been quiet since the 1990s if you ignore
     yugoslavia.

     The europeans regard this new period as normal and the past as
     irrelevant. It seems to me that the radical shifts in structure returns
     europe to its prior state and with it mass violence becomes likely not
     just possible. Europe has a violent history and that history is not so
     long ago.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Colby Martin &lt;colby.martin@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 11 Nov 2011 10:10:30 -0600 (CST)
     To: &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
     I am not sure how you can argue European protesters are not going to
     turn to violence and the authorities won't resort to draconian measures
     to suppress them.  Right now the unemployed still have those nice little
     social programs (especially in Spain) to support them so I agree right
     now they should remain low key.  But if the gov't has to reduce those
     programs or cut them altogether, the protests could turn into bad in a
     hurry.  I just want to make sure this isn't the European argument that
     "they" are more civilized, therefore violence is a thing of the past. (I
     throw up in my mouth a little every time a European tells me this)

     On 11/11/11 9:51 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

       I see your point, but what i dont agree with is when we imply that
       protests that happened in Tunisia can be compared to possible future
       ones in Europe. the word protests is very different when you compare
       north africa and european nations. A protest during the Arab spring,
       implied death injured and so on. A protest in europe (i.e Italy and
       Spain) is just a march that isnt a big deal. Rome marches were the
       same, nothing happened despite the fact that the Media made a big deal
       out of literally burnt cars by punks.

       On 11/11/11 9:48 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

         You're changing the argument. Your assertion that things can't
         spread from country to country because they are based on national
         issues is flawed. You have similar economic conditions in almost
         every European country at the moment. The issues aren't the same as
         what existed in the Arab world last winter, and nor are the nature
         of the regimes in power. No one is saying that. What we're saying is
         that Tunisia provides an example of how protest movements have the
         ability to spread to other countries that feature similar
         socioeconomic conditions.

         On 11/11/11 9:38 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

           Protests in Egypt that spread all over the place were based on the
           ability of people to say what they want and be able to get a
           decent rule of law and government. In Europe we have that,
           unfortunately we have a shitty economy, the protests are there but
           are unrelated because each country has its own way to approach the
           economic issues. We wont kill each other like people in north
           Africa, were past that, and again no offense to people from the
           region. Europeans live for the most part in democracies,
           expressing a discontent (which is what is happening now) is
           different from fighting for your freedom (i.e Egypt, Tunisia,
           Libya)

           On 11/11/11 9:34 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

             Without wading into the particulars of this discussion, I will
             just say that your logic re: national protests not being able to
             spread to other countries is flawed. How were the gripes of
             Egyptians last January related to the national uprising in
             Tunisia? And so on.

             On 11/11/11 9:19 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

               I personally don't agree with this statement "these protests
               could lead to an open societal crisis in Spain and spark to
               other countries". What we have in Europe is NATIONAL protests.
               These protests focus on the NATIONAL parliament and cannot
               therefore spread in Europe. You might have them in several
               countries but i dont think they spread because they are
               unrelated (despite the same economic shitty background) Plus,
               protests of this kind are usually peaceful, there is a decent
               level of understanding within the crowds that protests that
               killing each other isn't going to make a difference. Now we
               might have like always the 20 idiots that ruin it for everyone
               (think of the Rome revolts) but i dont foresee any dead or
               injured people. Protests dont automatically imply "bad" events
               to come

               On 11/11/11 8:02 AM, Christoph Helbling wrote:

                 these protests could lead to an open societal crisis in
                 Spain and spark to other countries. Are these protests going
                 to breed the future leaders of Europe?

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

 --
 Carlos Lopez Portillo M.
 ADP
 STRATFOR
 M: +1 512 814 9821
 www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-11 17:32:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-23 07:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/177614_re-discussion-spanish-protesters-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kevin.stech@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>177632</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
</title>
    <description>   In the case of Spain I would like to reiterate the extremely artificial
   notion that is "Spain". The country has a particular brand of popular
   revolt, one that tends to degenerate into regionalism and/or anarchism.

   As the economic glue that binds the country dissolves with the euro
   crisis, it seems like we could be headed to a repeat of history - a
   succession of increasingly weak democratically elected yet inefficient
   governments in conjunction with the rise of fringe violent groups
   (especially separatists) that will prompt a strong backlash and the
   re-emergence of a heavier handed central government.

   Essentially Spain has always been bound as a nation by either money or
   fear - they don't have money anymore...

   On 11/11/11 10:31 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     and so back to Christoph's original point, I think we really do need to
     be watching for emerging leaders in these protests who can play the
     populist card and present themselves as the savior from the elites. 
     this is the ideal environment for fresh ideologies and leaders to be
     born

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: friedman@att.blackberry.net, "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Friday, November 11, 2011 10:25:11 AM
     Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters

      Europeans aren't protesting the approval of a new EU constitutional
     amendment. They're protesting out of fear that they're going to lose the
     roof on their heads.  the more basic your demands, the more likely the
     protests will turn violent, and we can already see that the elites
     handling the crisis won't be able to manage this crisis in the end. the
     musical chairs we're seeing right now in the Greek and Italian
     governments is likely only the beginning. we have to see that as the
     manifestation of a much broader crisis in confidence, not on a national
     level, but on the european level.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "George Friedman" &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;
     To: "Analysts Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Friday, November 11, 2011 10:14:24 AM
     Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters

     Europe has not had mass violent protests since the 1960s although it has
     had violence and terrorism. Its been quiet since the 1990s if you ignore
     yugoslavia.

     The europeans regard this new period as normal and the past as
     irrelevant. It seems to me that the radical shifts in structure returns
     europe to its prior state and with it mass violence becomes likely not
     just possible. Europe has a violent history and that history is not so
     long ago.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Colby Martin &lt;colby.martin@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 11 Nov 2011 10:10:30 -0600 (CST)
     To: &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
     I am not sure how you can argue European protesters are not going to
     turn to violence and the authorities won't resort to draconian measures
     to suppress them.  Right now the unemployed still have those nice little
     social programs (especially in Spain) to support them so I agree right
     now they should remain low key.  But if the gov't has to reduce those
     programs or cut them altogether, the protests could turn into bad in a
     hurry.  I just want to make sure this isn't the European argument that
     "they" are more civilized, therefore violence is a thing of the past. (I
     throw up in my mouth a little every time a European tells me this)

     On 11/11/11 9:51 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

       I see your point, but what i dont agree with is when we imply that
       protests that happened in Tunisia can be compared to possible future
       ones in Europe. the word protests is very different when you compare
       north africa and european nations. A protest during the Arab spring,
       implied death injured and so on. A protest in europe (i.e Italy and
       Spain) is just a march that isnt a big deal. Rome marches were the
       same, nothing happened despite the fact that the Media made a big deal
       out of literally burnt cars by punks.

       On 11/11/11 9:48 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

         You're changing the argument. Your assertion that things can't
         spread from country to country because they are based on national
         issues is flawed. You have similar economic conditions in almost
         every European country at the moment. The issues aren't the same as
         what existed in the Arab world last winter, and nor are the nature
         of the regimes in power. No one is saying that. What we're saying is
         that Tunisia provides an example of how protest movements have the
         ability to spread to other countries that feature similar
         socioeconomic conditions.

         On 11/11/11 9:38 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

           Protests in Egypt that spread all over the place were based on the
           ability of people to say what they want and be able to get a
           decent rule of law and government. In Europe we have that,
           unfortunately we have a shitty economy, the protests are there but
           are unrelated because each country has its own way to approach the
           economic issues. We wont kill each other like people in north
           Africa, were past that, and again no offense to people from the
           region. Europeans live for the most part in democracies,
           expressing a discontent (which is what is happening now) is
           different from fighting for your freedom (i.e Egypt, Tunisia,
           Libya)

           On 11/11/11 9:34 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

             Without wading into the particulars of this discussion, I will
             just say that your logic re: national protests not being able to
             spread to other countries is flawed. How were the gripes of
             Egyptians last January related to the national uprising in
             Tunisia? And so on.

             On 11/11/11 9:19 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

               I personally don't agree with this statement "these protests
               could lead to an open societal crisis in Spain and spark to
               other countries". What we have in Europe is NATIONAL protests.
               These protests focus on the NATIONAL parliament and cannot
               therefore spread in Europe. You might have them in several
               countries but i dont think they spread because they are
               unrelated (despite the same economic shitty background) Plus,
               protests of this kind are usually peaceful, there is a decent
               level of understanding within the crowds that protests that
               killing each other isn't going to make a difference. Now we
               might have like always the 20 idiots that ruin it for everyone
               (think of the Rome revolts) but i dont foresee any dead or
               injured people. Protests dont automatically imply "bad" events
               to come

               On 11/11/11 8:02 AM, Christoph Helbling wrote:

                 these protests could lead to an open societal crisis in
                 Spain and spark to other countries. Are these protests going
                 to breed the future leaders of Europe?

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-11 17:44:26</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-23 07:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/177632_re-discussion-spanish-protesters-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>177695</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
</title>
    <description>   We are strictly talking about the idea of contagion, not the nature of the
   disease. It's like how in the First World, a really bad cough spreads
   around an office full of cubicle, and in Africa, people are spreading
   around HIV or Ebola or some other bad shit. There is still a contagion
   effect occuring, whether you're talking #firstworldproblems or
   #arabspring.

   Just trying to shoot down the incorrect notion that a "national" protest
   in Spain does not have the ability to inspire French, Italian, Greek,
   Belgian (ha!), Austrian, Portuguese, Irish, British, whoever else to do
   the same. Even if they are more civilized and inherently democratic by
   nature of their upbringing in a decadent society in which people speak
   multiple languages and only wave their respective flags during the World
   Cup, they still look around at what is happening in neighboring countries
   and get inspired.

   On 11/11/11 9:51 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

     I see your point, but what i dont agree with is when we imply that
     protests that happened in Tunisia can be compared to possible future
     ones in Europe. the word protests is very different when you compare
     north africa and european nations. A protest during the Arab spring,
     implied death injured and so on. A protest in europe (i.e Italy and
     Spain) is just a march that isnt a big deal. Rome marches were the same,
     nothing happened despite the fact that the Media made a big deal out of
     literally burnt cars by punks.

     On 11/11/11 9:48 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

       You're changing the argument. Your assertion that things can't spread
       from country to country because they are based on national issues is
       flawed. You have similar economic conditions in almost every European
       country at the moment. The issues aren't the same as what existed in
       the Arab world last winter, and nor are the nature of the regimes in
       power. No one is saying that. What we're saying is that Tunisia
       provides an example of how protest movements have the ability to
       spread to other countries that feature similar socioeconomic
       conditions.

       On 11/11/11 9:38 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

         Protests in Egypt that spread all over the place were based on the
         ability of people to say what they want and be able to get a decent
         rule of law and government. In Europe we have that, unfortunately we
         have a shitty economy, the protests are there but are unrelated
         because each country has its own way to approach the economic
         issues. We wont kill each other like people in north Africa, were
         past that, and again no offense to people from the region. Europeans
         live for the most part in democracies, expressing a discontent
         (which is what is happening now) is different from fighting for your
         freedom (i.e Egypt, Tunisia, Libya)

         On 11/11/11 9:34 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

           Without wading into the particulars of this discussion, I will
           just say that your logic re: national protests not being able to
           spread to other countries is flawed. How were the gripes of
           Egyptians last January related to the national uprising in
           Tunisia? And so on.

           On 11/11/11 9:19 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

             I personally don't agree with this statement "these protests
             could lead to an open societal crisis in Spain and spark to
             other countries". What we have in Europe is NATIONAL protests.
             These protests focus on the NATIONAL parliament and cannot
             therefore spread in Europe. You might have them in several
             countries but i dont think they spread because they are
             unrelated (despite the same economic shitty background) Plus,
             protests of this kind are usually peaceful, there is a decent
             level of understanding within the crowds that protests that
             killing each other isn't going to make a difference. Now we
             might have like always the 20 idiots that ruin it for everyone
             (think of the Rome revolts) but i dont foresee any dead or
             injured people. Protests dont automatically imply "bad" events
             to come

             On 11/11/11 8:02 AM, Christoph Helbling wrote:

               these protests could lead to an open societal crisis in Spain
               and spark to other countries. Are these protests going to
               breed the future leaders of Europe?

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701
</description>
    <date>2011-11-11 17:01:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-23 07:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/177695_re-discussion-spanish-protesters-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bayless.parsley@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>177761</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
</title>
    <description>   In some European countries most of the conditions are already there:

   - High rate of youth unemployment
   - Marginalized sectors of the population
   - Inability of the current political system to channel the discontent

   So far, Europeans have chosen the "civilized path": Punishing the
   government by voting for the opposition. The big question is what happens
   when the opposition is also incapable of solving problems.

   On 11/11/11 10:14 AM, George Friedman wrote:

     Europe has not had mass violent protests since the 1960s although it has
     had violence and terrorism. Its been quiet since the 1990s if you ignore
     yugoslavia.

     The europeans regard this new period as normal and the past as
     irrelevant. It seems to me that the radical shifts in structure returns
     europe to its prior state and with it mass violence becomes likely not
     just possible. Europe has a violent history and that history is not so
     long ago.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Colby Martin &lt;colby.martin@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 11 Nov 2011 10:10:30 -0600 (CST)
     To: &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
     I am not sure how you can argue European protesters are not going to
     turn to violence and the authorities won't resort to draconian measures
     to suppress them.  Right now the unemployed still have those nice little
     social programs (especially in Spain) to support them so I agree right
     now they should remain low key.  But if the gov't has to reduce those
     programs or cut them altogether, the protests could turn into bad in a
     hurry.  I just want to make sure this isn't the European argument that
     "they" are more civilized, therefore violence is a thing of the past. (I
     throw up in my mouth a little every time a European tells me this)

     On 11/11/11 9:51 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

       I see your point, but what i dont agree with is when we imply that
       protests that happened in Tunisia can be compared to possible future
       ones in Europe. the word protests is very different when you compare
       north africa and european nations. A protest during the Arab spring,
       implied death injured and so on. A protest in europe (i.e Italy and
       Spain) is just a march that isnt a big deal. Rome marches were the
       same, nothing happened despite the fact that the Media made a big deal
       out of literally burnt cars by punks.

       On 11/11/11 9:48 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

         You're changing the argument. Your assertion that things can't
         spread from country to country because they are based on national
         issues is flawed. You have similar economic conditions in almost
         every European country at the moment. The issues aren't the same as
         what existed in the Arab world last winter, and nor are the nature
         of the regimes in power. No one is saying that. What we're saying is
         that Tunisia provides an example of how protest movements have the
         ability to spread to other countries that feature similar
         socioeconomic conditions.

         On 11/11/11 9:38 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

           Protests in Egypt that spread all over the place were based on the
           ability of people to say what they want and be able to get a
           decent rule of law and government. In Europe we have that,
           unfortunately we have a shitty economy, the protests are there but
           are unrelated because each country has its own way to approach the
           economic issues. We wont kill each other like people in north
           Africa, were past that, and again no offense to people from the
           region. Europeans live for the most part in democracies,
           expressing a discontent (which is what is happening now) is
           different from fighting for your freedom (i.e Egypt, Tunisia,
           Libya)

           On 11/11/11 9:34 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

             Without wading into the particulars of this discussion, I will
             just say that your logic re: national protests not being able to
             spread to other countries is flawed. How were the gripes of
             Egyptians last January related to the national uprising in
             Tunisia? And so on.

             On 11/11/11 9:19 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

               I personally don't agree with this statement "these protests
               could lead to an open societal crisis in Spain and spark to
               other countries". What we have in Europe is NATIONAL protests.
               These protests focus on the NATIONAL parliament and cannot
               therefore spread in Europe. You might have them in several
               countries but i dont think they spread because they are
               unrelated (despite the same economic shitty background) Plus,
               protests of this kind are usually peaceful, there is a decent
               level of understanding within the crowds that protests that
               killing each other isn't going to make a difference. Now we
               might have like always the 20 idiots that ruin it for everyone
               (think of the Rome revolts) but i dont foresee any dead or
               injured people. Protests dont automatically imply "bad" events
               to come

               On 11/11/11 8:02 AM, Christoph Helbling wrote:

                 these protests could lead to an open societal crisis in
                 Spain and spark to other countries. Are these protests going
                 to breed the future leaders of Europe?

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

 --
 Adriano Bosoni - ADP
</description>
    <date>2011-11-11 17:25:08</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-23 07:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/177761_re-discussion-spanish-protesters-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>adriano.bosoni@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>178831</id>
    <title>MORE*: G3* - IRAN/UN/MIL - Iran IAEA report leaked
</title>
    <description>   Alot of information in this leak, similar to the one released yesterday,
   although this one really pushes the "iran is making weapons as we speak"
   line [johnblasing]

   IAEA may show recent bomb-related atom work by Iran

   http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/08/us-iran-nuclear-iaea-idUSTRE7A738S20111108

   VIENNA | Tue Nov 8, 2011 7:56am EST
   (Reuters) - A U.N. nuclear watchdog report due this week is expected to
   show recent activity in Iran that could help in developing nuclear bombs,
   including intelligence about computer modeling of such weapons, Western
   diplomats said on Tuesday.

   "There are bits and pieces of information that go up through 2010," one
   Vienna-based diplomat said.
   If confirmed in this week's keenly awaited document by the International
   Atomic Energy Agency, it could stimulate new debate about a controversial
   U.S. intelligence assessment in 2007 that Iran had halted outright
   "weaponization" work in 2003.
   It would heighten Western suspicions that Iran is resolved to pursue at
   least some of the research and development (R&amp;D) applicable to atom bombs,
   even if Tehran has made no apparent decision to actually build them, as
   diplomats believe.

   "There is still evidence there where I think the agency will be in a
   position to say that they have serious concerns coming up to the present
   day," said another envoy in the Austrian capital, where the IAEA is based.

   But Western officials and experts suggested that research and experiments
   pointing to military nuclear aims may not have continued on the same scale
   as before 2003, when Iran started coming under increased Western pressure
   over its nuclear work.

   "Iran is understood to have continued or restarted some R&amp;D activities
   since then," said nuclear proliferation analyst Peter Crail of the
   U.S.-based Arms Control Association, a research and advocacy group.

   Iran denies accusations it is seeking nuclear arms, saying they are based
   on forged documents. It says its uranium enrichment program is aimed at
   generating electricity so that it can export more of its abundant oil.

   Many conservative experts criticized the 2007 findings as inaccurate and
   naive, and U.S. intelligence agencies now believe Iranian leaders have
   resumed closed-door debates over the last four years about whether to
   build a nuclear bomb.

   "I suspect that the new IAEA report will play into the hands of U.S.
   conservative and Israeli critics of the 2007 NIE (National Intelligence
   Estimate), who had accused the U.S. intelligence community of playing down
   evidence of clandestine nuclear weapons activities in Iran," said Shannon
   Kile of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute think tank.

   "SERIOUS SCIENTIFIC INTENT"

   The IAEA report, due to be submitted to member states in the next few
   days, is expected to provide new evidence of explosives and physics
   research suggesting Iran is seeking the capability to design nuclear
   weapons.

   Some of the activities have little application other than atomic
   bomb-making, including computer modeling of a nuclear weapon, sources
   familiar with the document said.

   They said it would support intelligence reports that Iran built a large
   steel container at the Parchin military complex southeast of Tehran for
   the purpose of carrying out tests with high explosives usable for a
   nuclear chain reaction.

   "It is a forensic body of evidence that shows some serious scientific
   intent," one of the Western diplomats said.

   In February, U.S. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said
   Iran was "keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons in part by
   developing various nuclear capabilities that better position it to produce
   such weapons."

   Crail said Clapper's statements were not "inconsistent with the notion
   that some weapons-related R&amp;D has resumed which is not part of a
   determined, integrated weapons-development program of the type that Iran
   maintained prior to 2003."

   Mark Fitzpatrick, a director of the International Institute for Strategic
   Studies, said it was too early to say whether the IAEA report will cast
   doubt on the 2007 NIE assessment.

   "The U.S. intelligence community already has the information in the IAEA
   report," Fitzpatrick said, adding that Clapper as recently as March
   confirmed the belief that Iran had not made a decision to restart its
   nuclear weapons program.

   "The apparent disconnect between that statement and the leaks that have
   come out about the IAEA report probably pertain to the time frame of the
   weapons research and development and the level and scale of the activity
   that the IAEA apparently believes continued after 2003," he said.

   (Editing by Mark Heinrich)

   On 11/07/2011 09:02 AM, Chris Farnham wrote:

             I'm thinking we'll see a bucket load of items out of Iran, the
             US and Europe today regarding the coming IAEA report and all the
             politicing around it. Might as well have them all in one place
             for ease of reading [chris]

     Obviously waaaaay too much info here to rep. The key element of this
     item is the leaking of the info before the release of the report in
     order to prime/set the agenda by focusing on particular aspects and
     findings of the report. this leak is obviously a part of the concerted
     PR operation on behalf of the Israelis, US and possibly some Europeans
     and KSA. The items of the report are secondary in importance to the
     agenda that is being played out here to increase pressure on Iran,
     probably in the attempt to increase sanctions and push it to the top of
     the global consciousness thus giving the US increased leverage to
     bargain the best possible pull out of Iraq/Afghanistan [chris]

     there was a strange report of an anonymous speaker at a forum last
     friday, this may be related to that [johnblasing]

     IAEA says foreign expertise has brought Iran to threshold of nuclear
     capability

     http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iaea-says-foreign-expertise-has-brought-iran-to-threshold-of-nuclear-capability/2011/11/05/gIQAc6hjtM_print.html

     By Joby Warrick, Monday, November 7, 4:41 AM

     Intelligence provided to U.N. nuclear officials shows that Iran's
     government has mastered the critical steps needed to build a nuclear
     weapon, receiving assistance from foreign scientists to overcome key
     technical hurdles, according to Western diplomats and nuclear experts
     briefed on the findings.

     Documents and other records provide new details on the role played by a
     former Soviet weapons scientist who allegedly tutored Iranians over
     several years on building high-precision detonators of the kind used to
     trigger a nuclear chain reaction, the officials and experts said.
     Crucial technology linked to experts in Pakistan and North Korea also
     helped propel Iran to the threshold of nuclear capability, they added.

     The officials, citing secret intelligence provided over several years to
     the International Atomic Energy Agency, said the records reinforce
     concerns that Iran continued to conduct weapons-related research after
     2003 - when, U.S. intelligence agencies believe, Iranian leaders halted
     such experiments in response to international and domestic pressures.

     The U.N. nuclear watchdog is due to release a report this week laying
     out its findings on Iran's efforts to obtain sensitive nuclear
     technology. Fears that Iran could quickly build an atomic bomb if it
     chooses to has fueled anti-Iran rhetoric and new threats of military
     strikes. Some U.S. arms-control groups have cautioned against what they
     fear could be an overreaction to the report, saying there is still time
     to persuade Iran to change its behavior.

     Iranian officials expressed indifference about the report.

     "Let them publish and see what happens," said Iran's foreign minister
     and former nuclear top official, Ali Akbar Salehi, the semiofficial Mehr
     News Agency reported Saturday.

     Salehi said that the controversy over Iran's nuclear program is "100
     percent political" and that the IAEA is "under pressure from foreign
     powers."

     `Never really stopped'

     Although the IAEA has chided Iran for years to come clean about a number
     of apparently weapons-related scientific projects, the new disclosures
     fill out the contours of an apparent secret research program that was
     more ambitious, more organized and more successful than commonly
     suspected. Beginning early in the last decade and apparently resuming -
     though at a more measured pace - after a pause in 2003, Iranian
     scientists worked concurrently across multiple disciplines to obtain key
     skills needed to make and test a nuclear weapon that could fit inside
     the country's long-range missiles, said David Albright, a former IAEA
     official who has reviewed the intelligence files.
     "The program never really stopped," said Albright, president of the
     Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security. The
     institute performs widely respected independent analyses of nuclear
     programs in countries around the world, often drawing from IAEA data.

     "After 2003, money was made available for research in areas that sure
     look like nuclear weapons work but were hidden within civilian
     institutions," Albright said.

     U.S. intelligence officials maintain that Iran's leaders have not
     decided whether to build nuclear weapons but are intent on gathering all
     the components and skills so they can quickly assemble a bomb if they
     choose to. Iran has consistently maintained that its nuclear activities
     are peaceful and intended only to generate electricity.

     The IAEA has declined to comment on the intelligence it has received
     from member states, including the United States, pending the release of
     its report.

     But some of the highlights were described in a presentation by Albright
     at a private conference of intelligence professionals last week.
     PowerPoint slides from the presentation were obtained by The Washington
     Post, and details of Albright's summary were confirmed by two European
     diplomats privy to the IAEA's internal reports. The two officials spoke
     on the condition of anonymity, in keeping with diplomatic protocol.

     Albright said IAEA officials, based on the totality of the evidence
     given to them, have concluded that Iran "has sufficient information to
     design and produce a workable implosion nuclear device" using highly
     enriched uranium as its fissile core. In the presentation, he described
     intelligence that points to a formalized and rigorous process for
     gaining all the necessary skills for weapons-building, using native
     talent as well as a generous helping of foreign expertise.

     "The [intelligence] points to a comprehensive project structure and
     hierarchy with clear responsibilities, timelines and deliverables,"
     Albright said, according to the notes from the presentation.

     Key outside assistance

     According to Albright, one key breakthrough that has not been publicly
     described was Iran's success in obtaining design information for a
     device known as an R265 generator. The device is a hemispherical
     aluminum shell with an intricate array of high explosives that detonate
     with split-second precision. These charges compress a small sphere of
     enriched uranium or plutonium to trigger a nuclear chain reaction.

     Creating such a device is a formidable technical challenge, and Iran
     needed outside assistance in designing the generator and testing its
     performance, Albright said.

     According to the intelligence provided to the IAEA, key assistance in
     both areas was provided by Vyacheslav Danilenko, a former Soviet nuclear
     scientist who was contracted in the mid-1990s by Iran's Physics Research
     Center, a facility linked to the country's nuclear program. Documents
     provided to the U.N. officials showed that Danilenko offered assistance
     to the Iranians over at least five years, giving lectures and sharing
     research papers on developing and testing an explosives package that the
     Iranians apparently incorporated into their warhead design, according to
     two officials with access to the IAEA's confidential files.

     Danilenko's role was judged to be so critical that IAEA investigators
     devoted considerable effort to obtaining his cooperation, the two
     officials said. The scientist acknowledged his role but said he thought
     his work was limited to assisting civilian engineering projects, the
     sources said.

     There is no evidence that Russian government officials knew of
     Danilenko's activities in Iran. E-mails requesting comment from Russian
     officials in Washington and Moscow were not returned. Efforts to reach
     Danilenko through his former company were not successful.

     Iran relied on foreign experts to supply mathematical formulas and codes
     for theoretical design work - some of which appear to have originated in
     North Korea, diplomats and weapons experts say. Additional help appears
     to have come from the father of Pakistan's nuclear program, Abdul Qadeer
     Khan, whose design for a device known as a neutron initiator was found
     in Iran, the sources said. Khan is known to have provided nuclear
     blueprints to Libya that included a neutron initiator, a device that
     shoots a stream of atomic particles into a nuclear weapon's fissile core
     at the start of the nuclear chain reaction.

     One Iranian document provided to the IAEA portrayed Iranian scientists
     as discussing plans to conduct a four-year study of neutron initiators
     beginning in 2007, four years after Iran was said to have halted such
     research.

     "It is unknown if it commenced or progressed as planned," Albright said.
     The disclosures come against a backdrop of new threats of military
     strikes on Iran. Israeli newspapers reported last week that there is
     high-level government support in Israel for a military attack on Iran's
     nuclear installations.

     "One of the problems with such open threats of military action is that
     it furthers the drift towards a military conflict and makes it more
     difficult to dial down tensions," said Peter Crail, a nonproliferation
     analyst with the Arms Control Association, a Washington advocacy group.
     "It also risks creating an assumption that we can always end Iran's
     nuclear program with a few airstrikes if nothing else works. That's
     simply not the case."

     Special correspondent Thomas Erdbrink in Tehran contributed to this
     report.

       (Corr) Cleric asks IAEA head to avoid "lies"against Iran, save dignity
       of Agency

       At 0522 gmt, IRTV1 started airing the Id al-Adha prayer sermons in
       Tehran by Ayatollah Seyyed Ahmad Khatami live. Ayatollah Khatami
       listed 10 types of plots that America and Israel have resorted to
       against Iran during the past 32 year.

       He said: "During the past 32 years, we have witnessed different types
       of plots of the global arrogance against us, especially of the US and
       its illegitimate child, the Zionist regime. I have written down 10
       types of these [plots] - seven of which refer to the domestic field
       and three others the foreign field."

       He described "ethnic wars" as the first type of plots. Then he spoke
       about "assassinations" and said: "Over 12,000 people have been
       assassinated by the US and its agents in this country" He added that
       Iran possesses 100 "undeniable documents" that prove America's
       involvement in the assassinations inside the country and outside of
       it, in other countries.

       He referred to the "eight-year imposed war" (Iraq-Iran war) as the
       third type of plot and termed "influences up to the level of the
       president" as the fourth type of plots (reference to the 2009
       presidential candidate Mirhoseyn Musavi).

       Describing "coups" as the fifth type of plot, he said that six coups
       were initiated by the US in Iran, all of which, he said were "foiled"
       with the help of God.

       He called the "soft warfare and"1388 sedition" (2009 post-poll
       protests) are the sixth and seventh types of America's and Israel's
       plots against Iran.

       Regarding the foreign types of plots, Khatami said: "Eight: Intrusion
       into Afghanistan aimed at creating a base against the Islamic Iran.
       Nine: Intrusion into Iraq to establish control over Iran. 10: New
       Middle East, which was aimed at curbing the wave of the huge Islamic
       Revolution."

       He added that all these plots were "foiled" with the help of God.

       Source: Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1, Tehran, in
       Persian 0525gmt 07 Nov 11

       BBC Mon Alert ME1 MEPol sh

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

       Top cleric lists 10 types of US, Israel "plots" against Iran

       At 0522 gmt, IRTV1 started airing the Id al-Adha prayer sermons in
       Tehran by Ayatollah Seyyed Ahmad Khatami live. Ayatollah Khatami
       listed 10 types of plots that America and Israel have resorted to
       against Iran during the past 32 year.

       He said: "During the past 32 years, we have witnessed different types
       of plots of the global arrogance against us, especially of the US and
       its illegitimate child, the Zionist regime. I have written down 10
       types of these [plots] - seven of which refer to the domestic field
       and three others the foreign field."

       He described "ethnic wars" as the first type of plots. Then he spoke
       about "assassinations" and said: "Over 12,000 people have been
       assassinated by the US and its agents in this country" He added that
       Iran possesses 100 "undeniable documents" that prove America's
       involvement in the assassinations inside the country and outside of
       it, in other countries.

       He referred to the "eight-year imposed war" (Iraq-Iran war) as the
       third type of plot and termed "influences up to the level of the
       president" as the fourth type of plots (reference to the 2009
       presidential candidate Mirhoseyn Musavi).

       Describing "coups" as the fifth type of plot, he said that six coups
       were initiated by the US in Iran, all of which, he said were "foiled"
       with the help of God.

       He called the "soft warfare and"1388 sedition" (2009 post-poll
       protests) are the sixth and seventh types of America's and Israel's
       plots against Iran.

       Regarding the foreign types of plots, Khatami said: "Eight: Intrusion
       into Afghanistan aimed at creating a base against the Islamic Iran.
       Nine: Intrusion into Iraq to establish control over Iran. 10: New
       Middle East, which was aimed at curbing the wave of the huge Islamic
       Revolution."

       He added that all these plots were "foiled" with the help of God.

       Source: Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1, Tehran, in
       Persian 0522gmt 07 Nov 11

       BBC Mon Alert ME1 MEPol sh

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

         More anti-Western remarks attributed to Khatami [chris]

         Top clear asks IAEA chief to avoid "lies" against Iran, save dignity
         of Agency

         During the Id al-Adha sermons at Tehran University being aired live
         by IRTV1, Ayatollah Seyyed Ahmad Khatami referred to the upcoming
         IAEA report on Iran nuclear programme and addressed the
         Secretary-General of the Agency [Yukiya Amano], saying: "Do not
         insult the dignity of the International Atomic Energy Agency with
         your conduct."

         He added that if he [Amano] is used as a "week tool of the US" and
         acts against the "independent nation" of Iran and "publishes lies"
         in the form of a document then "whatever dignity is left of the
         Agency, will be wiped off."

         Thanking God for his blessings, he further said that all "plots"
         against Iran have always been "nullified".

         He added: "I explicitly tell America that the period of superpower
         has ended [for you]. America is being considered like an empty drum
         in the world, today. Neither are you the America of the past, nor
         the Islamic Iran is Iran of the past of during the Shah's time."

         He added that Iran today is a strong country that can confront any
         plot in a manner that will be a "lesson" for others.

         Source: Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1, Tehran, in
         Persian 0525gmt 07 Nov 11

         BBC Mon Alert ME1 MEPol sh

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

    Iran foreign minister terms Bushehr plant "symbol" of Iran-Russia ties   
                                                                             
    Text of report by Iranian official government news agency IRNA website   
                                                                             
    Tehran, 6 November, IRNA: Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said here on 
    Sunday [6 November] that Bushehr nuclear power plant is a symbol of      
    Iran-Russia cooperation.                                                 
                                                                             
    He made the remark in a meeting with new Russian Ambassador to Iran Leon 
    Jagarian, who submitted a copy of his credentials to Salehi.             
                                                                             
    "Bushehr power plant as a symbol of Iran-Russia cooperation proves that  
    the two countries can exchange views and cooperate at regional and       
    international levels.                                                    
                                                                             
    Pointing to the Iran-Russia excellent relations, Salehi said             
    unfortunately the volume of trade exchange between the two countries is  
    not enough while they have high potentials in this regard.               
                                                                             
    Expressing Iran's readiness to increase the current volume of economic   
    exchange by 10bn dollars, he said the two countries can expand their     
    cooperation in such fields as politics, economy, trade, culture, oil and 
    gas and power plant construction.                                        
                                                                             
    Jagarian described the recent meeting between the Iranian and Russian    
    presidents in Astana, Kazakhstan as a new phase in the two countries'    
    relations.                                                               
                                                                             
    He also expressed his country's readiness to cooperate with Iran at      
    regional and international levels.                                       
                                                                             
    Source: Islamic Republic News Agency website, Tehran, in English 1613gmt 
    06 Nov 11                                                                
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEPol sh                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

           Not on IRNA english yet - CR

    Attacking Iran would make US, Israel "pay heavy price" - official        
                                                                             
    Excerpt from report by Iranian news channel Press TV website             
                                                                             
    A member of Iran's Assembly of Expert says that the United States and    
    Israel will have to pay a heavy price for any military attack on Iran's  
    nuclear facilities.                                                      
                                                                             
    Seyyed Mahmud Alavi told IRNA on Sunday [6 November] that Washington and 
    Tel Aviv are aware of the fact that putting their anti-Iran threats into 
    practice would cost them dearly, and thus they would not become involved 
    in such folly.                                                           
                                                                             
    He stated that the US and Israel know that such empty threats cannot     
    intimidate Iran and also know that they would receive a crushing         
    response if they ever attack the Islamic Republic.                       
                                                                             
    [Passage omitted: background information]                                
                                                                             
    Source: Press TV website, Tehran, in English 1419gmt 06 Nov 11           
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEPol sh                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

             Transcript Ehud Barak interview
             Page last updated at 11:09 GMT, Sunday, 6 November 2011
             PLEASE NOTE "THE ANDREW MARR SHOW" MUST BE CREDITED IF ANY PART
             OF THIS TRANSCRIPT IS USED
             http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/andrew_marr_show/9632770.stm
             JEREMY VINE:

             Now by any standards Ehud Barak has had an astonishing career
             serving his country. Israel's Prime Minister during the Camp
             David negotiations with Yasser Arafat now serves as both Deputy
             Prime Minister and Defence Minister in the current government.
             Before entering politics, he was one of the country's most
             decorated soldiers carrying out the kind of military ops that
             are now the stuff of legend among many Israelis. So a man of
             peace or a man of war? When I met him in London recently, I
             began by asking why his government has authorised the building
             of more settlements despite international criticism.

             EHUD BARAK:

             We are building in Jerusalem. It's our capital. We are building
             in the Jewish neighbourhoods of Jerusalem. It's a city of
             700,000 people. You have to build and we will not accept anyone
             has the right to intervene in this. And we ...

             JEREMY VINE:

             (over) Well that is seen as speeding up, isn't it? That's seen
             as acceleration.

             EHUD BARAK:

             (over) No, it's not. No speeding up ... It's about numbers and
             pace, numbers per unit time. When Olmert was Prime Minister five
             years ago, we were building our defence minister twice the rate
             we are building now. When I was Prime Minister ten years ago, we
             were building four times the rate we are building right now. So
             it's not about the pace.

             JEREMY VINE:

             But why not ... Again it's about the symbolism. Why not just
             stop for a while because the other side see this as getting in
             the way, don't they?

             EHUD BARAK:

             No, no, the other side plays with it as a kind of manipulation
             to put certain preconditions into the dialogue. The reason that
             Olmert's government and my government could do it is because
             somehow we managed to convince the rest of the world that we are
             genuine in our talks and now we are facing more sophisticated
             Palestinian group which feels the zeitgeist behind them. They
             feel that they have good will from many international bodies, so
             they try to play with this issue of settlement. It really
             shouldn't matter because ...

             JEREMY VINE:

             Well you said something very, very interesting there - the
             phrases you've used - where you say you're dealing with a
             sophisticated Palestinian leadership now and they're very
             zeitgeisty and I couldn't have put it better myself in these
             questions. They're getting world opinion behind them, aren't
             they?

             EHUD BARAK:

             Yuh, yuh. We have to work properly to allow our people, our kind
             of spokesmen to talk more often to others, but it won't solve
             the issue. It cannot ...

             JEREMY VINE:

             (over) Are you frustrated at that?

             EHUD BARAK:

             I am a little bit frustrated by the fact that we cannot convince
             even some of our friends.

             JEREMY VINE:

             Okay, just to be clear. You accept that it strengthens Hamas if
             you go on building these settlements or not?

             EHUD BARAK:

             I don't think it relates to Hamas. Hamas basically is
             challenging Abu Mazen and the Palestinian authority. They are
             turning to terror. We cannot negotiate with them. Hamas are
             shooting at us rockets. You know just last week we got dozens of
             rockets in our southern part of the country. One man, father of
             four, was killed. That's something that cannot go together with
             peacemaking.

             JEREMY VINE:

             Let me change the subject.

             EHUD BARAK:

             (over) So it will be a challenge for Abu Mazen to take control
             over his own political system.

             JEREMY VINE:
             Alright, alright, I want to just move on because we haven't got
             much time. I want to talk to you about Iran as well. And I
             gather if we had the Israeli newspapers here and we opened them
             up, we would see that everyone in Israel is now thinking that
             you're getting ready to attack Iran. Is that right? Is that what
             people are saying?

             EHUD BARAK:

             Believe me, don't ... I do not try to underestimate the nature
             of the Iranian threat. That's a major threat for the stability
             of the whole region, probably of the whole world. A nuclear Iran
             - and they are determined to reach nuclear military capability -
             can open a major arms race, nuclear arms race in the whole
             Middle East. It can change the effectiveness of their supporting
             and their co-sponsoring of terror all around the region. They
             can ...

             JEREMY VINE:

             (over) Which is why the Israeli papers are saying aha, you're
             about to strike on them.

             EHUD BARAK:

             No, but I am telling it for years now. And they will intimidate
             neighbours in a much more effective way, especially when America
             and others are moving out of the region. I hope that the IAEA
             Report next week will tell the whole world a little bit more
             explicitly what they are really doing in regard to their nuclear
             plan.

             JEREMY VINE:

             (over) This is the narrative that's coming together. It's the
             missile test. It's the long range bombing plan. It's the IAEA
             Report which you mentioned. So they may say that Iran is getting
             closer to a bomb.

             EHUD BARAK:

             We strongly believe that sanctions are effective or could be
             effective if they are little and paralysing enough, that
             diplomacy could work if enough unity could be synchronised
             between the major players, but that no option should be removed
             from the table.

             JEREMY VINE:

             You have an amazing military record, and for those who don't
             know it, 19... - correct me if I'm wrong here - 1972 led the
             mission to free hostages on a Sabena flight; 1973, I read
             somewhere you dressed as a woman to assassinate - you're nodding
             - members of the PLO.

             EHUD BARAK:

             (over) Not as a hobby, yuh.

             JEREMY VINE:

             Okay. A scene in the film Munich reflected that. You were
             involved in Operation Entebbe in 1976; helped dismantle the
             Palestinian terror cell known as Black September. I'm thinking
             you're not really into diplomacy here. You would like to attack
             Iran.

             EHUD BARAK:

             No, I was also Foreign Affairs Minister of Israel and Prime
             Minister. In the last 15 years I didn't shot a single shot at
             anyone and I played a lot round the diplomatic saloons and the
             TV interviews as well. You know it's too serious. Israel is
             there. A person cannot choose his parents and a nation cannot
             choose its neighbours. We are living in a tough neighbourhood.
             No mercy for the weak, no second opportunity for those who
             cannot defend themselves. We would love to have the Canadians as
             our neighbours, but unfortunately the Americans got them. It's a
             tough neighbourhood and we have to be strong.

             JEREMY VINE:

             (over) One more because if you suddenly attack Iran next week, I
             want to make sure we've asked every question here. Have you got
             British support for that - for flying over them and dropping a
             bomb on their nuclear reactors?

             EHUD BARAK:

             I'm not going even to respond to this. May I say we are not ...
             don't worry about your next week programme, but the Iranian
             challenge is serious. This is something that should be prevented
             from happening. We have to stay there. We are strong. Israel is
             the strongest country a thousand miles around Jerusalem. We plan
             to remain the strongest country around. But we are at the same
             time peaceful. We are ready to make peace at any moment with any
             one of our neighbours.

             JEREMY VINE:

             So pretty cautious. Ehud Barak there, Israel's Defence Minister.
             No options ruled out on Iran.

             INTERVIEW ENDS

 --
 Clint Richards
 Global Monitor
 clint.richards@stratfor.com
 cell: 81 080 4477 5316
 office: 512 744 4300 ex:40841

             Iran Calligrapher's Association of North America, according to
             Google. Possibly not the entity being referred to below, though
             [chris]

             No idea what ICANA is... - CR

    Nuclear talks possible only if IAEA submits "honest" report - Iran       
    official                                                                 
                                                                             
    Text of report by Iranian news channel Press TV website                  
                                                                             
    An Iranian lawmaker says Iran has nothing to hide regarding its nuclear  
    programme and Tehran will only participate in negotiations if the UN     
    atomic agency is "honest" in its reports.                                
                                                                             
    Deputy Chairman of Iran's Majlis (parliament) National Security and      
    Foreign Policy Committee Esma'il Kowsari said that if the International  
    Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) resorts to deception then Iran "will set     
    conditions for talks."                                                   
                                                                             
    He went on to say that so long as the IAEA submits to the will of        
    arrogant powers particularly Washington, the agency's reports will       
    always be compiled to portray Iran in a negative light.                  
                                                                             
    "While the US has between 7,000 to 10,000 nuclear warheads and no other  
    country has atrocities such as Nagasaki and Hiroshima on its record, the 
    agency makes no effort to act against it (the US) and does not even dare 
    write a report against it," ICANA quoted him as saying on Sunday.        
                                                                             
    The IAEA director-general Yukiya Amano is scheduled to submit his new    
    report on Iran's nuclear case to IAEA member states on 8 November 2011.  
                                                                             
    However, Amano's visit to Washington for talks with US officials ahead   
    of the publication of the report has cast grave suspicion over its       
    objectivity and sincerity.                                               
                                                                             
    Iran has always rejected US allegations that it is pursuing a military   
    nuclear program and asserted the right to develop and acquire nuclear    
    technology for peaceful purposes as a signatory to the Non-Proliferation 
    Treaty [NPT].                                                            
                                                                             
    Source: Press TV website, Tehran, in English 1925gmt 06 Nov 11           
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEPol sh                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

             On 11/6/11 9:43 PM, Chris Farnham wrote:

               al-Ahkbar isn't in english - CR

                 Iran's Ahmadinejad defiant as U.S. raises heat-paper
                 http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/irans-ahmadinejad-defiant-as-us-raises-heat-paper/
                 06 Nov 2011 23:19

                 CAIRO, Nov 7 (Reuters) - The United States fears Iran's
                 growing military power because it is now able to compete
                 with Israel and the West, Iranian President Mahmoud
                 Ahmadinejad said in comments carried by an Egyptian
                 newspaper on Monday.

                 Responding to a toughening stance from the United States and
                 Israel against Tehran, Ahmadinejad accused Washington of
                 inventing conspiracies to discredit Iran and sowing discord
                 with its near neighbour Saudi Arabia.

                 "Yes, we have military capabilities that are different from
                 any other country in the region," Egyptian daily al-Akhbar
                 cited Ahmadinejad as saying. "Iran is increasing in
                 capability and advancement and therefore we are able to
                 compete with Israel and the West and especially the United
                 States."

                 "The U.S. fears Iran's capability," he told the paper. "Iran
                 will not permit (anyone from making) a move against it."
                 Iran's Islamic rulers, who say Israel has no right to exist,
                 deny accusations that they are seeking nuclear weapons and
                 have warned they will respond to any attacks by striking at
                 Israel and U.S. interests in the Gulf.

                 A senior U.S. military official said on Friday Iran had
                 become the biggest threat to the United States and Israel's
                 president said the military option to stop the Islamic
                 republic from obtaining nuclear weapons was nearer.

                 Ahmadinejad repeated that Iran does not own a nuclear bomb,
                 but said Israel's end was inevitable.
                 The U.N. nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, is expected this week
                 to issue its most detailed report yet on research in Iran
                 seen as geared to developing atomic bombs.

                 "It is Israel that has about 300 nuclear warheads. Iran is
                 only keen to have nuclear capability for peaceful means," he
                 said, accusing Washington of lumping Iran with Syria, the
                 Islamist Hamas movement that rules Gaza and Hezbollah in
                 Lebanon.

                 The U.S. portrays those four as "the Axis of Evil to save
                 the Zionist entity (Israel). But the Zionists are bound to
                 go out of existence," he said.

                 Responding to a U.S. claim that Iran was involved in a plot
                 to kill the Saudi ambassador to Washington, Ahmadinejad
                 said: "Iran is farthest from thinking of carrying out such
                 crimes but the U.S. is always inventing conspiracies against
                 Iran".

                 "The U.S. fears any friendship between us and Saudi Arabia
                 and therefore incites disagreements," he said. "To stop the
                 U.S. in its tracks we must deepen the elements of
                 friendship... We are ready for this and the relation between
                 Saudi and Iran already exists and has not been cut off."
                 (Reporting by Marwa Awad; Writing by Tom Pfeiffer; Editing
                 by Matthew Jones)

 --
 Clint Richards
 Global Monitor
 clint.richards@stratfor.com
 cell: 81 080 4477 5316
 office: 512 744 4300 ex:40841

 --
 Clint Richards
 Global Monitor
 clint.richards@stratfor.com
 cell: 81 080 4477 5316
 office: 512 744 4300 ex:40841

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +216 22 73 23 19
 www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-08 15:20:03</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/178831_more-g3-iran-un-mil-iran-iaea-report-leaked-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ben.preisler@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>178875</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION - What does a No-Fly Zone/Buffer Zone over Syria Mean?
</title>
    <description>   On the issue of the deadline --

   The way the Qataris are acting now, it's as if the two week grace period
   was never even offered. They've already called for AL meetings Friday and
   Saturday in Cairo to discuss the Syrians' lack of compliance. You don't do
   that if you feel like they still have some time remaining to kill
   protesters guilt-free.

   Fillon made a comment about the Syrians' lack of compliance today, but he
   does not speak for the AL, so that may not be so relevant.

   On 11/8/11 2:04 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     I wouldn't treat the Nov 18th as a hard deadline. Instead it is part of
     a process.

     On 11/8/11 1:58 PM, Rodger Baker wrote:

       Is the no-fly zone concept about the entire country, or just a buffer
       area near turkey? Very different types of enforcement needed for
       those. Think the localized nfz's in Iraq years back. 
       As for what Assad is doing in regards to the Arab league, if he has
       been given until the 18th to implement, why not have a surge in the
       crackdown, highlight the significant force differential between the
       military and the opposition, and then offer the opposition a way out,
       or at least some of them. Ten you can get most of the street protests
       done, you can appease the AL (for whatever that is worth), and you can
       make it clear that you win. And if the surge doesn't bring the
       opposition elements fractured and begging to the table, ignore the AL
       and keep the battle going. 

       On Nov 8, 2011, at 12:47 PM, Michael Wilson
       &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

         The larger political shift is something I had wanted to discuss in
         the meeting. Now I'm not saying Turkey is going to escalate matters,
         but we should play devil's advocate with ourselves and ask some
         questions

         Arab league (meaning the states that comprise the AL) have given
         Syria til around the 18th to implement the peace plan. He is not
         going to do that. So the question is what do those states even get
         from this plan in the first place?

         Are they going to use Syria's failure to comply to move to closer to
         actually doing something?

         In the diplomatic/propoganda war they are "supporting" the FSA army
         which has minimum 70 people or exaggerated maximum 15K. The saudis
         are leaking plans (again) the Turkey will do a buffer region, while
         when DAvutoglu was asked recently whether he would or not he left
         the door open it

         Way to answer that I guess is to see what Turkey and KSA are
         actually thinking on Syria. Do they think he will survive or fall?
         If survive do they try to make nice? Do they try to make him fall?
         If they think he will fall, do they help it along or just wait? Do
         they have any capabilities in the first place? Are they just playing
         to domestic politics or preparing for the worst

         I feel like we've said they are waiting to see what happens and
         preparing for the worst. But that just seems so passive, wouldnt
         they be looking more ahead than that? At what do they make the
         decision that he is or isnt staying. After all according to Reva's
         piece coming out its looking more and more like he wont fall, so do
         they adjust to that?

         OS articles below

         Qatar calls for Arab League to meet again on Syria

         http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/06/us-syria-arabs-idUSTRE7A514Y20111106
         CAIRO | Sun Nov 6, 2011 9:28am EST
         (Reuters) - Qatar's prime minister called for Arab states to meet
         next Saturday to discuss the Syrian government's failure to take
         steps to solve its crisis, Egypt's official news agency MENA
         reported.

         "Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim, the Qatari Prime Minister, called for an
         emergency Arab League council meeting at foreign minister level next
         Saturday to look at the latest developments in Syria," MENA said.

         The meeting would discuss "the continuing violence and the
         government's failure to stick to its obligations under the Arab
         Action Plan to solve the crisis in Syria," it said.

         League circulates Syria''s reply to Arab plan

         http://www.kuna.net.kw/NewsAgenciesPublicSite/ArticleDetails.aspx?id=2201290&amp;Language=en

         Politics  11/7/2011 3:43:00 PM
          
         CAIRO, Nov 7 (KUNA) -- The Arab League received on Monday a letter
         from Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Al-Muallem that includes measures
         taken by the government to implement the Arab action plan to resolve
         the crisis in Syria.
         The League's Deputy Secretary General Ambassador Ahmad Ben Hilli
         said in a statement today that the League has circulated the letter
         on all Member States right after it received it.
         He said the letter tackled procedures carried out by the Syrian
         government to implement the Arab initiative.
         Qatar, as current President of the Arab Ministerial Council and
         Committee on the resolution of the Syrian crisis, has called for an
         emergency session next Saturday to discuss the situation
         developments in Syria in light of continuing violence.
         The Committee is expected to convene an emergency meeting late on
         Friday in Cairo to discuss the situation prior to the Council
         meeting the next day. (end) mfm.rg.tg KUNA 071543 Nov 11NNNN

         US: Syrian broken promises will increase pressure on regime
         Nov 3, 2011, 19:51 GMT

         http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/middleeast/news/article_1672923.php/US-Syrian-broken-promises-will-increase-pressure-on-regime
          
         Washington - The Syrian regime will become increasingly isolated if
         it continues to make and break promises to end the violence against
         its citizens, the United States said Thursday as security forces
         reportedly killed more than 20 people.
         'It's now incumbent on the Assad regime to prove it - first to the
         Arab League, and secondly to the larger international community -
         that it meant what it said when it committed to this deal,' State
         Department Spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said a day after Syria agreed
         on a deal with the Arab League to end the violence.
         'The Arab League will obviously draw its own conclusions if today,
         tomorrow, the next day, all of these promises that were made are
         again broken.'
         The number of countries that have pressured Syria to no avail will
         continue to lose the regime friends and increase the pressure on
         Damascus, she said.
         'We will predict that if (Assad) doesn't meet his promises to the
         Arab League, the Arab League is going to feel that they had promises
         made, promises broken, and they're going to have to react,' she
         said.

         Syria urges insurgents to turn selves in for amnesty

         http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/syria-urges-insurgents-to-turn-selves-in-for-amnesty/

         04 Nov 2011 13:08

         Source: reuters // Reuters

         BEIRUT, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Syria has called on insurgents to turn
         themselves into authorities within one week starting on Saturday to
         qualify for an amnesty, state television said on Friday.

         "The interior ministry calls on citizens who carried weapons, sold
         them, delivered them, transported them or funded buying them, and
         did not commit crimes, to hand themselves into the nearest police
         station," it said.

         "The interior ministry assures that those who turn themselves in ...
         will then be freed immediately and it will be considered as a
         general amnesty," it said.

         President Bashar al-Assad is confronting a popular revolt against 41
         years of rule by his family. The protest movement has been largely
         peaceful, but a nascent armed insurgency has emerged in some restive
         regions. (Reporting by Mariam Karouny; Editing by Mark Heinrich)

         Syria breaking commitments to Arab peace plan: France
         French government condemn Syrian security forces crackdown on
         peaceful protesters saying that Syria is breaking its commitments to
         an Arab League peace plan by continuing using violence against
         opposition
         AFP , Friday 4 Nov 2011
         http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/25944/World/Region/Syria-breaking-commitments-to-Arab-peace-plan-Fran.aspx

         France said Friday that Syria was breaking its commitments to an
         Arab League peace plan by continuing a deadly crackdown on
         protesters and cast doubt on President Bashar al-Assad's dedication
         to the deal.

         "The continuing repression can only strengthen the international
         community's doubts about the Syrian regime's sincerity to implement
         the Arab League peace plan," the French foreign ministry's deputy
         spokesman, Romain Nadal, told journalists.

         "We understand that at least 20 peaceful protesters were killed by
         security forces yesterday in Syria," he said.

         "The continuing repression is completely contrary to the commitments
         given by the Syrian regime to the Arab League."

         Syrian troops killed five civilians in protest centres on Friday as
         demonstrators took to the streets nationwide to test the regime's
         commitment to the Arab peace deal.

         Twenty civilians had been killed on Thursday -- the first day the
         hard-won agreement aimed at ending nearly eight months of bloodshed
         came into effect.

         The peace plan calls on Assad to withdraw security forces from
         protest hubs and engage in a national dialogue with his opponents.

         But Assad's opponents are sceptical about his readiness to rein in a
         brutal crackdown that the United Nations says has cost more than
         3,000 lives since mid-March.

         Turkish, Qatari ministers meet in Istanbul
         During the meeting, Ahmet Davutoglu and Khalid bin Muhammad
         al-Atiyah debated the agreement between Syrian administration and
         Arab League.
         http://www.worldbulletin.net/index.php?aType=haber&amp;ArticleID=81189

         Turkish foreign minister met Qatari minister of state for foreign
         affairs in Istanbul on Thursday.

         During the meeting, Ahmet Davutoglu and Khalid bin Muhammad
         al-Atiyah debated the agreement between Syrian administration and
         Arab League.

         Davutoglu briefed al-Atiyah on his meetings with Sudan's Foreign
         Minister Ali Ahmed Karti and Arab League's Secretary General Nabil
         al-Arabi.

         Al-Atiyah is visiting Turkey to hold talks regarding developments in
         Syria. He briefed Davutoglu on recent regional developments,
         particularly talks between Arab League and Syria.

         Arab League and Syrian administration have reached an agreement on
         ending violence in Syria as soon as possible and releasing people
         who were arrested during revolt against the government.

         Syria: Unofficial parties in Arab countries `funding terrorists'

         http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=328613

         November 2, 2011

         Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Moqdad accused on Tuesday
         unofficial Turkish, Lebanese, Jordanian and Saudi parties of funding
         "terrorists in Syria."

         "We do not want to say that the Saudi, Turkish, Lebanese and
         Jordanian governments are funding armed groups [in Syria], but we
         think that unofficial parties from these countries are funding
         [terrorists in Syria]. We request these countries to not allow this
         happen," he told the Russia Today channel.

         Moqdad also said that there are parties that want to incite a civil
         war in Syria and that "these parties are Muslim extremists, Salafis
         and drug dealers," adding that such parties aim to destabilize
         Syria.

         The Syrian official also slammed Turkey following its recent
         statements on the Syrian situation and said that "no one has the
         right" to interfere in Syrian affairs.

         Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday that
         Ankara "will not stay silent" on Syria.

         Asked about UN reports that 3,000 have been killed since anti-regime
         protests began in mid-March, Moqdad said: "Some international
         organizations have lost their credibility because they see events
         with one eye. These organizations failed to mention that Syria has
         lost 1,150 security and army members."

         This is a day old, but was included in Grinstead's intsum this
         morning. Just want people to see it so that everyone knows that
         technically, Syria has not yet violated the terms of the AL
         agreement. They have two more weeks of killing spree allowed before
         they will technically be in violation.
         They're planning to hold the negotiations in Cairo, too, according
         to the AL deputy sec gen. Over the next week or so we should see
         preparations made for who exactly is going to attend. [BP]
         Arab League gives Syria 15 days to implement proposal
         Nov 3, 2011, 22:05 GMT
         http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/middleeast/news/article_1672949.php/Arab-League-gives-Syria-15-days-to-implement-proposal
         Cairo - Arab League Deputy Secretary-General Ahmad Ben Hali said
         Thursday that Syrian authorities have 15 days to implement
         provisions of an Arab League peace proposal before dialogue can kick
         off between the regime and the opposition.
         'The Arab League proposal is still in its initial stage,' Ben Hali
         told the Dubai-based Al Arabiya television.
         He added that dialogue between Syrian authorities and the opposition
         'will take place at the Arab League's headquarters and under its
         auspices.'
         Syria on Wednesday fully accepted an Arab League plan to end nearly
         eight months of bloodshed in the country, but on Thursday Syrian
         security forces killed 20 people and wounded 50 others in a new wave
         of crackdown against pro-democracy protesters.
         The Arab League plan forsees a complete halt to the violence, the
         release of protesters who have been detained since February, the
         withdrawal of forces from areas where there have been armed clashes,
         and granting access to delegates from the 22-member body and the
         international media.
         More than 3,000 people have been killed, among them 187 children, in
         the clampdown the Syrian government has been carrying out against
         protesters since the uprising started in mid-March, according to UN
         estimates.

         Arab League says Syria approves Arab plan
         Wed Nov 2, 2011 4:29pm GMT
          http://af.reuters.com/article/egyptNews/idAFWEA102020111102?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=egyptNews&amp;utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FAfricaEgyptNews+%28News+%2F+Africa+%2F+Egypt+News%29&amp;utm_content=Google+Reader&amp;sp=true

         CAIRO Nov 2 (Reuters) - The Arab League said on Wednesday the Syrian
         government had approved an Arab plan for dialogue with the
         opposition and steps to end seven months of bloodshed, according to
         a League statement released during a ministerial meeting in Cairo.

         "The Arab League welcomes the Syrian government's agreement to the
         Arab plan," the statement said, adding that it "emphasised the need
         for the immediate, full and exact implementation of the articles in
         the plan."

         "The Arab committee (overseeing the plan) is responsible for
         submitting periodic reports to the ministerial council of the Arab
         League on the progress of carrying out the plan," it said.
         (Reporting by Ayman Samir; Writing by Edmund Blair)

         All of the Asharq al awsat articles that are talking about Turkey
         perhaps preparing a buffer article reference comments Davutoglu made

         I am pretty sure they are talking about this FT interview from Nov
         1. See bolded part

         Turkey hardens stance against Syria

         November 1, 2011 5:11 pm
         http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f1438150-049e-11e1-ac2a-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1d82Vwk3y
         By Daniel Dombey in Istanbul

         Turkey has signalled possible support for a buffer zone to protect
         Syrian civilians if Damascus continues its crackdown on democracy
         protests, as tensions rise between the two former strategic
         partners.

         Ahmet Davutoglu, Turkey's foreign minister, told the Financial Times
         that Ankara was preparing targeted sanctions against Damascus and
         left the door open for more drastic steps at a later date, such as a
         buffer zone or a no fly-zone on Syrian territory.

         "The Syrian regime is attacking the Syrian people, which is
         unacceptable," Mr Davutoglu said in an interview. "When we see such
         an event next door to us of course we will never be silent."

         When asked about Turkey's stance on a buffer zone or a no-fly zone,
         he said: "We hope that there will be no need for these type of
         measures but of course humanitarian issues are important...There are
         certain universal values all of us need to respect and protecting
         citizens is the responsibility of every state."
         His comments are an indication of the growing pressure Turkey is
         putting on Syria, on the rhetorical level at least, to halt the
         crackdown.

         By contrast, in August Turkish officials rejected reports they were
         planning to impose a buffer zone, while Anders Fogh Rasmussen,
         Nato's secretary general, dismissed the idea of a no-fly zone this
         week.

         Turkey's position is important because the country cultivated closer
         ties with Damascus until this year and is now taking an active role
         in reaching out to the Syrian opposition.

         Speaking at the Turkish parliament on Tuesday, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
         Turkey's prime minister, praised the Syrian protests as "glorious"
         and expressed his belief that they would succeed.

         Ankara's tougher approach has been greatly welcomed by the US, which
         has been leading calls for Bashar al-Assad, Syrian president, to
         leave power.

         On Tuesday Syrian state television announced that a final agreement
         had been reached between the Syrian government and an Arab League
         committee working to find a solution that could end the unrest,
         although it did not provide any details. The US said it welcomed any
         international efforts to end the violence in Syria, but reiterated
         its call for Mr Assad to step down.

         Although in the interview Mr Davutoglu denied claims that Turkey
         allowed armed Syrian rebels to operate from its territory, last week
         he became one of the first international officials to meet leaders
         of the Istanbul-based opposition Syrian national council.

         Mr Erdogan is also likely to visit Syrian refugee camps in Turkey in
         the near future, and could announce further sanctions against
         Damascus when he does. The trip had previously been scheduled for
         last month, but was postponed because of the death of Mr Erdogan's
         mother.

         Although Mr Davutoglu said Turkish sanctions against Syria would be
         targeted rather than broad, any unilateral steps would mark a change
         of tack for Turkey, which has long depicted sanctions against its
         neighbours as both ineffective and damaging to its own economy.

         "We have always been against sanctions, economic sanctions which
         will harm people," Mr Davutoglu said. "But certain measures [that]
         have an impact on a regime fighting against its own people are
         different."

         Mr Davutoglu also rejected a claim by Mr Assad that western
         intervention in Syria could turn the country into another
         Afghanistan.

         "[To compare] Syria to Afghanistan would mean implicitly to accept
         that it is a failed state, which is not true," he said. "There is a
         state continuing in Syria; the important thing is how the leaders of
         this state are acting." He added that the correct analogy was with
         eastern Europe in the 1980s and early 1990s and warned Mr Assad:
         "Those leaders who do not understand this correctly will lose
         power."

         Turkey: We've intercepted 3 Syria-bound weapons shipments from Iran
         Turkey reportedly planning buffer zone along border with Syria
         07/11/2011

         By Tha'ir Abbas
         http://www.asharq-e.com/news.asp?section=1&amp;id=27239

         London, Asharq Al-Awsat- The situations in Syria entered a new stage
         yesterday with signs of Arab-international-regional manoeuvrings
         emerging, which could lead to fundamental changes in the handling of
         the Syrian crisis.

         Next to the extraordinary session that the Arab initiative committee
         will hold next Saturday to discuss the Syrian Government's failure
         to implement its obligations which it accepted in the Arab action
         plan for resolving the Syrian crisis, sources in the Syrian
         opposition have disclosed they have received promises that the UN
         Security Council [UNSC] will hold a session after the Arab meeting
         to discuss a UN resolution to send international observers to Syria
         while Turkey has expressed its "readiness and ability" to establish
         a buffer zone on condition of getting an "Arab and international
         cover."

         Turkish sources have told Asharq Al-Awsat that Ankara is
         coordinating on a "high-level" with both Qatar that chairs the Arab
         initiative and with the Arab League [AL] and Washington. They said
         Turkey was going to announce several sanctions in a message that
         Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyib Erdogan was scheduled to address
         to the Syrians during his inspection of their camps inside Turkey
         but that was postponed "so as to make room for the Arab initiative
         and see what results it will have." But the sources pointed out that
         "with the escalation in the situation and the stalling of the
         initiative, Turkey might raise the (sanctions) issue again." They
         added that Turkey was holding contacts with the UNSC member
         countries that are still hesitant, especially Brazil and South
         Africa which have very close ties with Turkey, in order to persuade
         them to take a different stand.

         The Turkish sources disclosed that Ankara has imposed what could be
         described as sanctions on Damascus, like its total ban on the entry
         of weapons to Syria, this includes stopping three previous shipments
         from Iran, in addition to "the careful examination" of particular
         banking transfers to businessmen loyal to the regime so as to
         pressure and prevent them from supporting it. They cited Turkish
         Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu about his country's readiness to
         impose a buffer zone all along the borders to protect the civilians
         and stressing that his country "has the readiness and ability to
         impose the buffer zone but we need an Arab and international cover."

         Meanwhile, sources in the Syrian opposition have told Asharq
         Al-Awsat they have received promises of holding a new UNSC session
         this week whose agenda will include a draft resolution to send a
         team of observers to Syria. They pointed out that the mission of the
         "blue berets" would be to watch the Syrian violations and hence
         protect the demonstrators from the daily killings.

         On his part, Radwan Ziyadah, member of the Syrian National Council,
         told Asharq Al-Awsat that the AL's next meeting on Saturday could be
         decisive "because the regime has been given three chances so far and
         squandered them all. I believe this is enough to force the hesitant
         countries to take a stand." He pointed out that "it is obvious that
         the Syrian regime will not stop the killings but on the contrary, it
         is using all the army's firing power in shelling the cities" and
         added: "Things will be better if it (the AL) takes the right
         decision, demands international protection, and authorizes the UNSC
         to take the appropriate resolution. It will then be impossible for
         Russia and China to use the (veto) or even abstain from voting." He
         said "it would be a mockery and ridiculous for the AL to give the
         regime more chances after all it has done" and noted in return that
         the Syrian opposition's contacts with AL Secretary General Nabil
         Elaraby "showed an unusual seriousness" in addition to the
         opposition's contacts with countries Ziyadah described as "hesitant"
         such as Sudan and Algeria which "showed a change in stands."

         Leader of Free Syrian Army says not receiving arms from Turkey

         Text of report by Turkish newspaper Milliyet website on 7 November

         [Interview with Colonel Riyad al-Asad of Free Syria Army in Antakya
         by Asli Aydintasbas: "Riyad al-Asad versus Beshar al-Asad"]

         Colonel Riyad al-Asad runs the Free Syria Army, which is undertaking
         the armed struggle against the Syria regime, from within a camp in
         Antakya. The colonel boasts: "We have 22 units and 15,000 soldiers
         in Syria."

         Opponent who have left the army are pleased with Turkey's support,
         but unhappy that they are unable to get weapons. Riyad al-Asad says:
         "There are officers inside who do not want to open fire on
         civilians. There should at least be a buffer zone for them."

         Up until now the popular uprising that has been going on in Syria
         since March has not had one known face or voice or leader.

         However, the Free Syria Army, which is made up of officers who left
         the Syrian army in recent weeks has suddenly gained the entire
         world's attention through its armed actions against Beshar al-Asad's
         regime and because of the statements is making abroad.

         The rebellion began in Dera on 8 March and has continued across the
         country with 4,000 people being killed and tens of thousands being
         arrested. So, has it moved one step beyond being a street protest
         and become an armed resistance?

         In order to get an answer to this question we went to Antakya to
         speak with the officers of the Free Syria Army, which has begun an
         armed resistance against Beshar al-Asad and which has been making
         its voice heard just recently.

         Colonel Riyad al-Asad fled the Syrian army and sought asylum in
         Turkey when the uprisings began, and is the leader of the Free Syria
         Army. Claiming to be engaging in guerrilla action against the regime
         all over Syria, the movement is coordinated by two separate units
         deployed one in Antakya and one on the Lebanon-Syria border.

         A Very Special Camp

         The Free Syria Army (OSO) in Antakya is deployed in a 70-person camp
         holding a few colonels, captains and army families, and which is
         protected by the Turkish army. (There are other civilian camps in
         the same area housing thousands of refugees from Syria.)

         Ankara had given up hope in Damascus when Beshar al-Asad bloodily
         quelled the Syrian people's demands, and insists that its protection
         of the officers or civilians who fled from Syria is for
         "humanitarian reasons." The officials and regime opponents I spoke
         to stressed there were no weapons at the camp and that no weapon
         training was being given. To date, there have been no hit-and-run
         attacks into Syria from Turkey. However, the camps are being tightly
         protected by Turkey because of the consternation the OSO is causing
         in Damascus.

         A Slim, Smiling Colonel

         Colonel Al-Asad, whom we met at a secret location on a rainy day in
         Antakya, came to the meeting accompanied by the close protection
         team the Turkish authorities had given him. The colonel is in
         constant danger.

         I made many interviews with Saddam's opponents who had fled the
         Iraqi army and with Peshmerga commanders fighting Saddam in northern
         Iraq back in the 1990s. I know the "opposition" fabric in this
         region very well indeed. That is why I have to say I was surprised
         to see not a mustached commander with a pot belly but a slim,
         unassuming and smiling face before me.

         During the long interview we made through an interpreter we
         discussed the conditions in the Syrian army, the colonel's
         breath-taking escape to Turkey and the armed actions he had
         undertaken in Syria.

         Let me state now that opponents all over the world always embellish
         when they speak. It is hard to believe that Colonel Al-Asad is
         running the 15,000-stong militia groups conducting a guerrilla war
         in Syria using a simple Nokia cell phone and Skype on a sluggish
         internet connection.

         Ankara, while protecting the Free Syria Army, is not giving it
         permission to form a base of armed operations within Turkey. In
         fact, these is why some officers grew fed up with sitting in Antakya
         and watching events from afar, and have returned to Syria in order
         to continue "fighting."

         There Is Embellishment And Truth Alike

         However, this tale does have an element of truth to it. It is
         entirely true that there are serious numbers leaving the Syrian
         army, that officers and soldiers unwilling to bear arms against the
         people are seeking a place of refuge, and that despite all the
         difficulties the OSO has become a legend within the country. It is
         also true that some soldiers refused to fire and that they have
         begun to conduct amateurish attacks in small groups.

         In the end, the demise of the regime in Syria might not come at the
         hands of the colonel in a business suit sitting across from me, but
         at the hands of someone else entirely, or as a result of completely
         different dynamics. However, when it does come the Free Syria Army
         will have a role and a function, large or small, in the tale.

         What Colonel Al-Asad knows very well indeed is that the world
         public, still not used to the speed of the Arab Spring, is
         exceedingly cautious about an adventure in Syria. The West has not
         yet "pressed the button" for the toppling of Beshar al-Asad's
         regime. The clearest indicator of this is the lack of American,
         French or British officials coming and going to the camp in Antakya.
         Even though Washington might occasionally interject saying, "Al-Asad
         should go" there are no sanctions against Syria and no steps towards
         creating a "buffer zone." But this does not necessarily mean that
         the issue, which will be placed on the world's agenda again when the
         prime minister goes to Hatay in the coming weeks, will not take on a
         completely different colour in 2012.

         Why Are The Kurds Not Joining In The Protests?

         The Syrian Kurds living in the Qamishlo region had remained distant
         from the protests that were shaking up the rest of the country,
         right up until Syrian Kurd leader Mi'shal Temo was assassinated last
         month. The first things the regime did when the protests began was
         to give the some of the Syria Kurds "ID card" and citizenship
         rights, which had been denied them for 50 years. After this, both
         the PKK and the KDP [Kurdistan Democracy Party] lead by Mas'ud
         Barzani, who has some weight in Qamishlo, told the Kurds to "stay
         silent." We asked Col Al-Asad why the Kurds were not taking part in
         the attacks:

         "The Kurds have been very shy when it comes to taking part in the
         demonstrations. When the protests began the regime made some pledges
         to the Kurdish groups and gave 50,000 Kurds ID cards. The PKK told
         its supporters there not to hold any demonstrations against the
         regime. In fact, a known cleric of Kurdish origins (Ramazan Buti)
         was sent to Aleppo. But the atmosphere is changing."

         Bashar al-Asad Will Only Be Removed By War, Not Persuasion

         Colonel Al-Asad surprised me when he said they supported the offer
         made to the Syrian administration by the Arab League and that this
         was why they put their attacks on hold for a time. I assumed this
         caution might have come from Ankara. However, Riyad al-Asad does not
         think that an accord can be reached with Syria: "Bashar al-Asad will
         leave only through combat, not through persuasion. The Arab League
         gave Al-Asad an opportunity. But since then they killed 20 people in
         Humus. There are thousands of detentions in Damascus, again. If he
         had really been honest he would have complied with the Arab League
         and withdrawn his tanks from the towns. But he knows his government
         will fall the moment he does this. He has been running the country
         for 11 years. If he were going to enact reforms he would have done
         so by now. Seeing that the people adore him he should let it go and
         let the foreign press into the country."

         Only Intelligence And Special Teams Being Targeted

         [Aydintasbas] How many people are there in your group?

         [Al-Asad] We have 22 separate units deployed in every region in
         Syria. Approximately 15,000 soldiers. We have telephone
         communications with every unit. S ome of the demonstrations recently
         have shouted slogans for us. We have carried out many actions
         against the army. Some of our ranking colleagues here have gone back
         to take charge of the units there.

         [Aydintasbas] What kind of actions are you carrying out against the
         army?

         [Al-Asad] We call on the officers not to point their guns at people
         and to leave the army immediately. We are only targeting the
         Muhaberat (intelligence) and the special units known as Shabiba. We
         are not targeting private soldiers or the regular army. We generally
         employ guerrilla tactics because we do not have the heavy weapons
         for a straight up fight. We set ambushed. We have a great resistance
         in Rastan, and in other places too. We killed 10 officers in the
         past week.

         No Weapons From Turkey. We Wish There Were!

         [Aydintasbas] What is the situation in the Syrian army?

         [Al-Asad] The Muhaberat completely controls the army. It is said we
         are defending the country from outside or Israeli-backed gangs. Some
         officers who refused to fire on the people were killed. (He lists
         names.) There are units that fled like we did or that fire into the
         air rather than kill people when sent to put down the protests.

         [Aydintasbas] Where do you get your weapons from?

         [Al-Asad] The forces within the country are already armed. We are
         able to get weapons inside.

         [Aydintasbas] What about Turkey?

         [Al-Asad] No. If only. Turkey is the only country that has opened
         its borders to us but Turkey is wary about giving us weapons. The
         New York Times wrote we were getting weapon training here, but that
         is not true.

         The Free Syria Army was formed by officers who fled the army rather
         than fire on demonstrators in Syria. They claim to be using
         guerrilla tactics inside Syria.

         The group's leaders live in Antakya and in Lebanon. Their strength
         might be over-exaggerated but their existence is enough to create
         panic in Damascus.

         Al-Asad Says All Opponents Are Islamists -We Are Not

         [Aydintasbas] How did you get out of Syria?

         [Al-Asad] I have been in the army for 31 years. I was most recently
         serving in Idlib Province on the border. When the demonstrations
         began we received instructions saying, "Be alert. There are
         Israeli-backed armed groups in the country." We were told to protect
         the country from armed gangs. Yet, these were protests calling for
         reforms and freedoms. When the protests spread nationwide the Sunni
         officers such as myself came under a lot of pressure.

         We were always being summoned to the Muhaberat centre in Aleppo.
         When demonstrations began in the town where I was born they grew
         really suspicious. I was questioned. I was instantly transferred
         from Idlib to Hama, and I knew I would be killed if I did not run.

         A few other officers under suspicion had been murdered in transit. I
         took my family and came to the border.

         [Aydintasbas] Bashar al-Asad told the Daily Telepgraph that the
         fighting in Syria was between Islamists and Arab nationalists. Are
         you an Islamist?

         [Al-Asad] No, I am not. The regime calls all opponents Islamist. But
         Al-Asad is not killing Islamists. He is killing the people.

         [Aydintasbas] But are you from the Muslim Brotherhood?

         [Al-Asad] I have nothing at all to do with them. At none of the
         demonstrations in the country has even one Ihvan (Muslim
         Brotherhood) placard been unfurled. The Syrian people are one. And
         we all want democracy under the Syrian flag. We would prefer to be
         like Turkey, both Muslim and a secular democracy. Regardless whether
         those in charge are secular or Islamist, the Arab people will no
         longer accept a tyrannical regime.

         [Aydintasbas] There is a fear that if the regime in Syria falls then
         the Nusayrians will be slaughtered.

         [Al-Asad] Never. That idea is being propagated by the regime. There
         are Nusayrians and Kurds too.

         [Aydintasbas] So, are there any Nusayrians in the Free Syria Army?

         [Al-As ad] No, we are all Sunni.

         We Want A No Fly Zone

         [Aydintasbas] Just recently the Syrians have been calling for No Fly
         Zones during the demonstrations. What good would that do?

         [Al-Asad] We also want a buffer zone and no fly zone along the
         border with Turkey because Al-Asad's regime can only be brought down
         through power and brute force, not through persuasion. There are
         many officers and soldiers ready to leave the army and who we have
         spoken with. But they have nowhere to go. They know they will be
         destroyed without a special safe area. Look, our resistance in
         Rastan held out for four days. For four days the tanks could not
         enter the city. They only managed to enter because of the air
         strikes. There were 150 dead. Our resistance lost two of its 12
         officers. Yet, had there been a no fly zone the regime could never
         have taken the town.

         Source: Milliyet website, Istanbul, in Turkish 7 Nov 11

         BBC Mon EU1 EuroPol ME1 MEPol 071111 em/osc

    Syrian army defectors to resume operations against regime's forces       
                                                                             
    Text of report by Saudi-owned leading pan-Arab daily Al-Sharq al-Awsat   
    website on 5 November                                                    
                                                                             
    [Report by Caroline Akum in Beirut: "Colonel Al-As'ad to 'Al-Sharq       
    al-Awsat': We Will Resume Our Operations Against Regime's Forces After   
    its Intentions Were Exposed. Split Among National Council's Members Over 
    Coorperation with Free Syrian Army"]                                     
                                                                             
    Defecting Colonel Riyad al-As'ad, commander of the "Free Syrian Army",   
    has declared to Al-Sharq al-Awsat that his army will resume the          
    "qualitative" military operations against [Syrian President Bashar]      
    Al-Asad's forces after the "regime's intentions" were exposed during     
    "the God is Great Friday."                                               
                                                                             
    The Free Syrian Army suspended its operations on Wednesday night to give 
    the Arab [League] initiative the chance to succeed. Al-As'ad said in a   
    telephone contact "we gave the Syrian regime a chance of two days after  
    it announced its acceptance of the Arab initiative so as to expose its   
    lies and manoeuvres. From today and following the exposure of its        
    intentions on (God is Great Friday), we will resume carrying out         
    qualitative military operations and our movements are going to be bigger 
    and wider."                                                              
                                                                             
    Al-As'ad denied the report by the Daily Telegraph about his plan for the 
    Free Syrian Army to be the military wing of the Syrian opposition to     
    President Bashar al-Asad's regime and said "we refuse to be followers of 
    any party. I will form a military council as soon as possible."          
                                                                             
    Asked if there was any coordination about these operations with the      
    Syrian National Council whose members refuse to militarize the           
    revolution, he pointed out that there were no contacts at the leadership 
    level but at the level of specific persons. He added: "We have defected  
    from the Syrian army and have the right to defend ourselves and our      
    people militarily. Anyone who thinks that this Syrian regime will        
    collapse peacefully is deluded. This is why we refuse to keep the        
    revolution peaceful. I will establish a military national council at the 
    earliest possible time and we will have our own programme which we will  
    announce at the time." He stressed that "the defections are increasing   
    daily and I can confirm that we have passed the 15,000 number."          
                                                                             
    Asked if there was military coordination with the Turkish authorities,   
    he said "there is no security coordination with Turkey and the support   
    the authorities is giving us is limited to humanitarian aid in addition  
    of course to protecting our security and the Syrian people's security."  
                                                                             
    The British Daily Telegraph had reported [LINK HERE; NOV. 3 ARTICLE]     
    that Al-As'ad was living under permanent protection from the security    
    officials in Ankara and noted that the high level of human losses in the 
    Syrian security forces' ranks as a result of internal attacks confirms   
    the presence of armed forces operating with the secret approval of the   
    authorities. The paper cited Al-As'ad as saying that the Free Syrian     
    Army's members are armed with weapons and ammunition stolen from the     
    regime, are protecting the boundaries of the opposition towns and        
    villages, and are attacking the soldiers firing on peaceful              
    demonstrators. The paper added, also quoting Al-As'ad, "we are waiting   
    for the Syrian National Council to appoint a high-level delegation and   
    send a representative to talk to us about supporting their objectives    
    militarily."                                                             
                                                                             
    On the other hand, National Council member Umar al-Idlibi has told       
    Al-Sharq al-Awsat that the question of the council's relationship with   
    the Free Syrian Army is widely discussed by the members and the results  
    would be announced within few days, particularly as some of them refuse  
    to deal with it on the basis of "maintaining the purity of the           
    revolution", which he considered "an ideal but inapplicable viewpoint."  
                                                                             
    But Council member Jabr al-Shufi denied the existence of any             
    coordination between it and the Free Syrian Army's command and told      
    Al-Sharq al-Awsat: "There is no coordination between the Free Syrian     
    Army and us and we do not have any connections with any operations it is 
    carrying out on the ground because we reject the militarization of the   
    revolution though we support these defections on condition that they are 
    made on the basis of the peaceful revolution." Regarding the Daily       
    Telegraph's report that Al-As'ad was planning to make his army the       
    military wing of the Syrian opposition, Al-Shufi asserted that "the      
    Council has not adopted this army or a ny wing in it." As to the         
    possibility of coordination with Al-As'ad in the next stage, he said:    
    "Channels of communications could be opened with him if he agrees and    
    complies with our basic conditions, namely, the non-militarization of    
    the revolution and keeping it as peaceful as it started because we are   
    fully convi! nced that turning the revolution into a military one will   
    make it lose its broad base and provide the regime with an additional    
    pretext to use us against us and the demonstrators." He added: "We       
    support their use of arms if they are defending themselves, houses, and  
    citizens but we reject categorically any military attack or operation    
    because this is inconsistent with our objectives and approaches on which 
    the peaceful revolution is based."                                       
                                                                             
    Source: Al-Sharq al-Awsat website, London, in Arabic 5 Nov 11            
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEEauosc 051111 pk                                           

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011
         This Saudi media report is saying that Erdogan was going to visit
         the Antakya region (right on the Syrian border), but had to postpone
         it because of the PKK troubles and the subsequent Turkish military
         operation in N. Iraq. He will apparently reschedule his visit for
         after the Eid holidays.
         Does anyone here know Ersat Hurmuzlu? He is described as Gul's chief
         advisor, and he said some vague things Nov. 2 about Turkey preparing
         to take "measures" against Syria.
         The bolded part in the second to last para is potentially the most
         important, but like always, is a Saudi claim that doesn't cite
         anyone specifically from within the Syrian opposition. Read what
         they're claiming the Turks have promised Erdogan will deliver when
         he does make his visit to Antakya. That is some bigtime shit.

    Syrian opposition say Turkey "promised"' to arm dissidents, boycott      
    regime                                                                   
                                                                             
    Text of report by Saudi-owned leading pan-Arab daily Al-Sharq al-Awsat   
    website on 3 November                                                    
                                                                             
    [Report by Tha'ir Abbas in London: "Turkish official tells Al-Sharq      
    al-Awsat: We will take measures to protect the Syrian civilians and stop 
    the use of violence; Syrian opposition sources talk about Turkish        
    promises to establish a buffer zone, arm the dissidents, and boycott the 
    regime"]                                                                 
                                                                             
    Turkey has regained its hard-line tone against the Syrian regime         
    following a period of "anticipation" imposed by the successive           
    developments in the region. As Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip       
    Erdogan returns the Syrian file to the forefront of Turkey's priorities, 
    his close associates tell Al-Sharq al-Awsat that the expectations in     
    Turkey indicate that Ankara is on the verge of preparing for a higher    
    ceiling of statements and actions against Syria. Sources in the Turkish  
    prime minister's office have said that Erdogan did not make his expected 
    visit to the Antakya region due to the events that imposed "other        
    concerns". This was a reference to the attacks that the Kurdistan        
    Workers' Party perpetrated and the large-scale military operation that   
    the Turkish forces launched in northern Iraq. The sources pointed out    
    that Erdogan's visit to Antakya region to review the living conditions   
    of the Syrian "guests" in the Turkish camps has been deferred, not       
    cancelled. ! The sources went on to say that a new date for this visit   
    will be set after Erdogan returns from his two visits to Germany and     
    France and after the Id al-Adha holiday.                                 
                                                                             
    Ersat Hurmuzlu, the Turkish president's chief adviser, stated yesterday  
    [ 2 November] that his country will take "measures" regarding Syria,     
    adding that compliance with international sanctions imposed on the       
    Syrian regime are not subject to discussion. Hurmuzlu told Al-Sharq      
    al-Awsat that his country "will take measures to protect the Syrian      
    civilians and to stop the use of violence". However, he declined to go   
    into details but promised that the Turkish prime minister will announce  
    these measures in the name of the Turkish government. Hurmuzlu said that 
    his country "did all it can to expedite reforms in Syria; however, it    
    has lost hope because the Syrian leadership has chosen the principle of  
    violence and bloodshed". Hurmuzlu pointed out that his country was the   
    first to call for dialogue between the regime and the opposition. He     
    went on to say: "Why not if the new Arab initiative responds to the      
    demands of the Syrian people and guarantees the sparing of more !        
    bloodshed". He emphasized that the "legitimate demands of the Syrian     
    people should be met. The decision is in the hands of the Syrian         
    people". Syrian opposition sources disclosed to Al-Sharq al-Awsat        
    yesterday that Ankara promised the Syrian opposition to take four steps  
    that Erdogan will announce during his visits: Turkey will sever all      
    relations with the Syrian regime, will join the total and comprehensive  
    boycott of Al-Asad's regime, arm the Free Syrian Army, support the       
    establishment of a buffer zone in northern Syria, and help the Syrian    
    opposition on the international level regarding the demand of            
    international protection.                                                
                                                                             
    Hurmuzlu answered a question related to remarks made by Buthaynah        
    Sha'ban, the Syrian president's adviser, who talked about "Turkish       
    promises to issue passports to the Syrian refugees on Turkey's soil".    
    Hurmuzlu replied: "This is categorically incorrect. We consider these    
    civilians as guests, not refugees that. The circumstances in their       
    country drove them to seek asylum; they are free to return to their      
    country". Answering another remark by Sha'ban on why the refugees fled   
    from Idlib to Turkey instead of to Aleppo that is closer, Hurmuzlu said  
    that the security conditions forced them to take this step. He added:    
    "Seeking asylum in Turkey by the refugees was by choice. We did not ask  
    them to come to Turkey and we did not force them to return or to stay".  
    He emphasized that his country is treating its guests "will all          
    respect". He added that the Turkish authorities launched a vaccination   
    campaign among the refugees against Hepatitis and conducted a full       
    survey ! of the medical conditions of the more than 7,000 refugees.      
    Hurmuzlu concluded that the Syrian regime's remarks that the refugees    
    are being exploited are totally unjustified.                             
                                                                             
    Source: Al-Sharq al-Awsat website, London, in Arabic 3 Nov 11            
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEEauosc 051111/da                                           

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

         Russia urges support for Arab League peace plan on Syria
         Topic: Protests in Syria

         MOSCOW, November 7 (RIA Novosti)

         http://en.rian.ru/russia/20111107/168493117.html
          
         Russia's Foreign Ministry called on Monday for international backing
         for an Arab League peace plan for Syria.
         Under the plan, Syria would release political prisoners detained
         during the ongoing conflict, and all military equipment would be
         removed from urban areas.
         Syria would also be obliged to allow Arab League and world media
         representatives into the country, as well as guarantee them free
         passage.
         "The implementation of these measures and other provisions
         stipulated in the Arab League's initiative paves the way for a
         constructive and detailed dialogue between the Syrian authorities
         and the opposition with the aim of putting the situation on the road
         to reconciliation and reformations without any foreign involvement,"
         the Russian ministry said in a statement.
         Syria formally adopted the plan on November 2, but the Syrian
         opposition rejected it, saying it would not enter a dialogue with
         the current authorities.
         According to UN estimates, more than 3,000 people have been killed
         in Syria since mid-March, when first anti-regime protests began.

         I'm only sending this because it is a Saudi attempt to hype some
         sort of budding cooperation between the Libyan revolutionaries and
         the Syrian opposition. Note that they did not out any names of the
         Syrians that supposedly met with the Libyans. It is also not
         surprising at all for me to see that the Libyan they quote is
         Abdullah Naker. He is seriously butt buddies with the Asharq people;
         we mentioned him in our Libya piece - he's one of those who hates
         Belhaj with a passion.
         Syrian opposition seeks to emulate Libya's NTC in bid to oust
         Al-Asad
         Text of report by Saudi-owned leading pan-Arab daily Al-Sharq
         al-Awsat website on 3 November
         [Report by Khalid Mahmud in Cairo: "The Syrian council seeks to
         emulate the Libyan Model against Al-Asad's regime; Tripoli
         Revolutionary Council chairman to Al-Sharq al-Awsat: We will offer
         our expertise to Syrians to overthrow the Syrian regime"]
         The Syrian Transitional Council [STC], which is opposed to President
         Bashar al-Asad's regime, yesterday [2 November] seemed to be seeking
         to emulate the scenario of its Libyan counterpart against the late
         Col Mu'ammar al-Qadhafi. An STC delegation held semi-secret talks
         with representatives of various Libyan national forces and of the
         Transitional National Council [TNC] aimed at securing military and
         logistical support to enable demonstrators in Syria to stand up to
         Al-Asad's regime's brutal suppression.
         The STC delegation met with a number of Libyan revolutionary
         leaders, commanders of security brigades, as well as TNC officials
         in the Libyan capital Tripoli and in other Libyan cities. They
         sought to secure Libyan revolutionaries' support to STC's attempts
         to overthrow Al-Asad's regime.
         After meeting with the STC delegation, Abdallah Nakir al-Zintani,
         chairman of the Tripoli Revolutionary Council [NOTE: This guy was
         mentioned in our big Libya piece; hates Belhaj], told Al-Sharq
         al-Awsat that the Syrian delegation requested military and material
         aid as well as advice on how to confront the suppressive actions
         that the Syrian authorities commit against unarmed demonstrators in
         various Syrian cities. He added: "Naturally, they requested all
         sorts of aid they can get - -weapons, funds, combatants. We believe
         that the international community and the Arab countries should help
         the Syrian demonstrators' efforts to rid themselves of Al-Asad's
         regime." Al-Zintani noted that the Libyan revolutionaries sympathize
         with their Syrian brethren as they face systematic killing aimed at
         foiling the popular revolution against the ruling regime in Syria.
         He stressed that all the Syrian regime's methods to subjugate the
         demonstrators are doomed to failure.
         Al-Zintani added: "Our advice to him (Syrian President Bashar
         al-Asad) is that he should quit and voluntarily give up power
         instead of eventually finding himself tormented, humiliated, before
         getting killed like Al-Qadhafi." He said that the huge military
         machine that Al-Qadhafi had did not succeed in saving his regime
         from the Libyan people's overwhelming revolution against him. He
         added: "I think the same applies to Syria. Eventually, weapons will
         not succeed in subjecting the people who have taken to the streets
         in Syria. Suppression, torture, and killing will not terrorize the
         Syrian people. The Syrian president should learn a lesson from what
         happened around him in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya."
         Al-Zintani said that he believed the Syrian president should show
         some wisdom and spare himself and his people torment, and avoid
         making them pay a heavy human and material price to get rid of him
         and his political regime. He added: "He must stop killing and
         promptly decide to quit, as Tunisian President Zine Elabidine Ben
         Ali did. Weapons and killing will not enable him to stay in power
         for ever against the Syrian people's will; this is absurd and he
         must stop."
         Al-Zintani said that the sympathy displayed by the Libyan
         revolutionaries for their Syrian brethren is quite justified because
         the conditions in both countries are similar to some extent. He
         said: "We started with peaceful demonstrations, which soon turned
         into confrontations, forcing us to stand up to Al-Qadhafi's regime,
         his security brigades, and military forces. The same thing is now
         happening in various parts of Syria. People take to the streets with
         bare chests while the regime opens fire at them to kill without
         seeking understanding." He urged the international community and the
         Arab countries to help the Syrian people in every way possible to
         prevent further carnage.
         Al-Zintani added: "We explained our experience to the Syrian
         delegation members on how to secure the support of the Arab
         countries, the international community, NATO, and the US
         Administration, and briefed them on our recent, modest experience."
         Al-Zintani stressed that through the TNC, the Libyan people should
         help their Syrian brethren to rid themselves of Al-Asad's regime. He
         said: "He (the Syrian president) has to understand that the Syrian
         people have awakened, and that they will not accept a continuation
         of any further humiliation. Nothing will protect him from the Syrian
         people's revolt except quitting and putting an end to his regime."
         Al-Zintani said: "We do not introduce ourselves as custodians of the
         Arab spring revolts. We only offer our experience to anyone who
         requests it, particularly because it is the newest experience in
         contemporary Arab history, and shows how we disposed of a tyrant
         like Al-Qadhafi." He said: "There is a strong similarity between
         what is happening in Syria and what happened in Libya. The thugs in
         Syrian streets are like the former members of the revolutionary
         committees and security brigades in Libya. Also, there are tribes
         and tribal mingling in Syria as are there in Libya."
         The Libyan TNC's recognition of the legitimacy of its Syrian
         counterpart against Syrian President Bashar al-Asad's regime is the
         first in the Arab region and the Middle East. In February, the
         Libyan people made their decisive choice early on the need for the
         imposition of a no-fly zone against Al-Qadhafi's regime, seeking
         NATO assistance to prevent Al-Qadhafi's forces from killing
         civilians and destroying the infrastructure of most Libyan cities.
         The Syrian opposition leaders, however, are still at odds among
         themselves over seeking assistance from NATO or other foreign
         parties.
         The Syrian oppositionists fear the prospect that the ruling regime
         in Damascus may exploit their resort to NATO help to defame them and
         shuffle the cards among the local people. However, as the killing
         escalates daily in various Syrian cities, the Syrian opposition
         leaders abroad seem to be reconsidering their calculations and
         repeat the Libyan scenario.
         In a statement to Al-Sharq al-Awsat, A Libyan TNC official said:
         "Certainly we are ready to assist our brethren in Syria, but the
         question is how and when." This official, who asked not to be
         identified, was referring to several technical difficulties that
         hamper shipping the aid required by the Syrian revolutionaries,
         notably the distance between the two countries and the
         unavailability of Libyan ships to transport weapons, let alone the
         fact that the Syrian regime is capable of preventing ships from
         docking at Syrian ports. Some Syrians consider Turkey as a
         destination for foreign aid to be transported later across the
         Turkish-Syrian border to Syrian territory.
         In his remarks to Al-Sharq al-Awsat, this Libyan official said:
         "These logistical hindrances can be overcome if an international and
         regional network is established for the purpose of transporting aid
         to Syria, a task that will be difficult, very costly, and fraught
         with danger."
         The Libyans do not forget that President Al-Asad's regime adopted a
         hostile stand on their popular revolution, which erupted against
         Al-Qadhafi on 17 February. Libyan military commanders accuse the
         Syrian regime of supporting Al-Qadhafi's regime militarily,
         supplying it with weapons and mercenaries, and providing it with
         intelligence information about Libyan oppositionists abroad. In
         remarks to Al-Sharq al-Awsat, a Libyan military commander said: "We
         feel we have a personal vendetta against Al-Asad's regime. We have
         previously arrested Syrian officers and pilots who were operating
         within Al-Qadhafi's army against the Libyan people."
         And after Al-Qadhafi lost his media outlets under the military
         strikes of the revolutionaries, backed by NATO aircraft bombardment,
         the Damascus-based Al-Ra'y satellite channel television assumed the
         mission of serving as Al-Qadhafi's voice to the world. And before
         Al-Qadhafi's death and the fall of his political regime, the Syrian
         authorities rejected more than one request by the Libyan
         revolutionaries to close down the Al-Ra'y channel. This channel,
         which is owned by Iraqi oppositionist Mish'an al-Juburi, is regarded
         as hostile as it incited the Libyans to kill the revolutionaries and
         propagated Al-Qadhafi's black propaganda.
         Although NATO Secretary General Ander Fogh Rasmussen, who visited
         Libya the day before yesterday, said that NATO had no intention of
         intervening in Syria or imposing a no-fly zone by force against the
         Syrian regime, many Syrian oppositionists believe that this official
         stand may change in the future.
         In his statement to Al-Sharq al-Awsat, Abdallah al-Zintani, chairman
         of the Tripoli Revolutionary Council, said: "The Syrian
         oppositionists should benefit from our experience. The international
         community will not intervene unless the Syrians pay the price, like
         us. We fought against Al-Qadhafi and lost thousands of martyrs, thus
         placing the international community in an embarrassing and
         regrettable situation. So eventually, NATO intervened militarily."
         He added: "If you want others to help you, you first have to prove
         to others that evasion of offering help to you is an inhuman and
         unethical act. The Syrians should assimilate the Libyan revolution's
         outcome and apply it as they deem fit to their situation."
         The preparatory national committee on support of the Syrian
         revolution called for a meeting in Paris. More than 50 Syrian
         opposition figures will participate in this constituent conference
         to work out programmes and elect action group to support the Syrian
         revolution in its struggle to overthrow the Syrian regime and build
         a civil, democratic state. In a statement it released, the committee
         said that the meeting will be held next Saturday and Sunday, noting
         that the opening session will be open to media outlets and that
         former Syrian Vice President Abd al-Halim Khaddam will address the
         meeting. The meeting will be followed by closed sessions and
         workshops.
         Source: Al-Sharq al-Awsat website, London, in Arabic 3 Nov 11
         BBC Mon ME1 MEEauosc 051111 nan
         (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

         Syria lashes out at U.S. State Department

         English.news.cn   2011-11-05 16:51:33

         http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-11/05/c_131231074.htm

         DAMASCUS, Nov. 5 (Xinhua) -- A Syrian foreign ministry source on
         Saturday slashed as "irresponsible" a statement made by the U.S.
         State Department advising Syrians not to surrender themselves after
         Damascus announced an amnesty for those who gave up their weapons.

         With its statement the U.S. administration has proved once again its
         flagrant intervention in the Syrian affairs and revealed its policy
         that supports killing, as well as its funding of " terrorist
         groups," the source was quoted by the state news agency as saying.

         The Syrian interior ministry on Friday called on those who carried,
         sold or distributed weapons but didn't commit homicides to turn
         themselves in within a week to receive amnesty.

         In a statement carried by the state TV, the ministry pledged to
         release those who turned themselves in between Nov. 5 and 12, saying
         that "this will be considered as an amnesty to those who surrender
         themselves and hand over their weapons."

         After the issue of the Syrian statement, the U.S. State Department
         spokesman Victoria Nuland told reporters that "I wouldn't advise
         anybody to turn themselves in to the (Syrian) authorities at the
         moment."

         "This would be about the fourth amnesty that they've offered since I
         took this job about five months ago," she said, "So we'll see if it
         has any more traction than it's had."

         The Syrian government "condemns this irresponsible statement that
         couldn't be interpreted but as aiming to foment sedition and support
         killing and terrorism practiced by armed groups against Syrian
         citizens," the foreign ministry source said.

         The Syrian government urged the international community to confront
         those policies "that run against the rules of the international law
         and the UN Security Council resolutions pertaining to combating and
         funding terrorism," the source said.

         Marking Eid al-Adha ...553 Detainees Involved in Events with No
         Blood on their Hands Released

         Nov 05, 2011

         http://www.sana.sy/eng/21/2011/11/05/380103.htm

         DAMASCUS, (SANA)_Marking Eid al-Adha, 553 detainees who were
         involved in the current events with no blood on their hands were
         released.

         Also, 119 detainees were released lately.

         Interior Ministry on Friday called upon citizens who were involved
         in carrying, selling, distributing, transferring or financing the
         purchase of weapons and hadn't committed killing crimes to turn
         themselves in and hand their weapons over to the nearest police
         station in their region from Saturday, November 5, 2001 until
         Saturday, November 12, 2011.

         The Ministry, in a statement, said those who will turn themselves in
         will be released soon and this will be considered as a general
         amnesty for them.

         M. Ismael
         On 11/8/11 12:32 PM, Nate Hughes wrote:

           We've got a good foundation for this in George's dangers of a
           libyan NFZ piece and his emaculate/humanitarian intervention
           weekly.

           Syrian AD is certainly a more complex challenge that Libyan AD
           both in terms of disposition and sheer scale. But it also should
           not be overstated. It is a large but obtainable

           When was the last time any of this hardware was upgraded? How well
           are they maintained and how often do their crews drill? Has that
           changed since the unrest started?

           Israel demonstrated quite clearly that it can poke a pretty
           decisive hole in it back in 2007, and while Syria certainly
           learned from that, what has it been able to change in any
           meaningful sense? It is well mapped and routinely probed and
           monitored by the israelis.

           How many of their planes are flight worthy?

           Your points about this being a big undertaking -- bigger than
           Libya and more dangerous -- is well grounded in our pieces from
           the lead-up to the Libya intervention. But scale of strike
           capacity required is different than risk and achieveability.
           Mapping out disposition and detailing weapons specs does not
           convey the underlying military balance between a key strength of
           the american (and israeli) way of war -- the air campaign against
           even IAD networks -- and how Syria might hold up to it.

           With the right tools (in both quality and quantity) properly
           applied, Syria's AD network is entirely a manageable tactical
           problem -- though it would be messier than Libya to some degree.

           But you have not justified your concluding assertion that it would
           be a seismic shift, and can't do that without arguing the larger
           political shifts.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: Omar Lamrani &lt;omar.lamrani@stratfor.com&gt;
           Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
           Date: Tue, 8 Nov 2011 10:45:04 -0600 (CST)
           To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
           ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
           Subject: DISCUSSION - What does a No-Fly Zone/Buffer Zone over
           Syria Mean?
           Excellent Map from the Graphics Department:

           https://clearspace.stratfor.com/docs/DOC-7456

           Aside from very isolated and limited strikes, any significant
           incursions or attempts to impose a buffer zone/no-fly zone over
           Syria will lead to major conflict.

           In order for aircraft to freely and safely operate over Syria, the
           Syrian air defense network must be degraded if not crippled. This
           means that radar systems have to be neutralized, surface to air
           missile (SAM) batteries targeted, runaways bombed, and Syrian
           fighter aircraft intercepted and destroyed. By any measure, this
           implies a bombing campaign over Syria, with serious potential for
           escalation.

           The NATO no-fly zone over Libya was preceded by massive cruise
           missile and air strikes against the Libyan air defense network.
           French aircraft did fly over Libya to strike at Kaddafi's
           mechanized columns heading towards Benghazi before the main
           strikes against the Libyan AD network commenced, but they flew
           over parts of Libya without any air defenses due to the area
           previously having been overrun by rebels. As will be illustrated
           below, the Syrian air defense network is far more effective than
           the previous Libyan one ever was.

           Despite comprising largely of aging if not obsolescent Soviet
           equipment, the Syrian Air Defense network is fairly robust. The
           Syrian fixed SAM systems are mostly of the same type as those used
           by Kaddafi's Libya, consisting primarily of SA-2, SA-3, SA-5, and
           SA-6 systems. Unlike Kaddafi's Libya however, the Syrian SAM
           network is far larger, denser, and focused. Multiple SAM batteries
           are deployed in such a way as to ensure overlapping and redundant
           coverage, which not only increases the survivability of the SAMs
           but also goes some way towards alleviating the aging equipment's
           inability to target more than one target at a time.

           While Kaddafi's air defenses were situated to protect the
           populated coast, the Syrian SAM network is heavily concentrated in
           Western Syria, with the entire network being primarily oriented
           towards defense against Israeli Air Force incursions.

           Syrian SA-5 batteries are long ranged systems that are more
           effective against strategic than tactical assets. Due to the low
           maneuverability of the launched missiles and their inability to
           target low flying aircraft, the primary role of the SA-5 is to
           deter or destroy AWACS, tankers, and other large and slow targets.
           The five Syrian SA-5 batteries are deployed in a manner as to
           provide overlapping coverage of Western Syria, with all batteries
           able to engage targets over the Golan Heights and Damascus.

           The SAM belt around Damascus and the Golan Heights is perhaps the
           densest in the Middle East, with dozens of SA-2, SA-3, and SA-6
           batteries in the area. This component of the Syrian SAM network
           serves two main functions. First, it provides a major impediment
           to any aircraft coming in directly from Israel into Syria or
           entering Syria after flying through Southern Lebanon. Second, it
           provides an umbrella over the large numbers of Syrian army
           formations in the Golan as well as protects the capital.

           A number of Syrian SA-2 and SA-3 batteries are also deployed along
           the Syrian coast to prevent any aircraft penetrating into Syria
           from the sea. Further SA-2, SA-3, and SA-6 batteries are
           positioned to protect the major Syrian cities of Aleppo, Hama, and
           Homs, including major military facilities in the area such as the
           Homs missile factory, Hama missile base, and Al-Safir missile
           base.

           24 airports with paved runways as well as some 80 airports with
           unpaved runways are integral to the Syrian Air Defense network.
           The majority of these airbases are situated under the SAM system
           umbrella. From these airbases, a large and dispersed fighter and
           interceptor force reinforces the Syrian SAM network. Most notably,
           the 697, 698, and 699 Mig-29 squadrons operate from the Tsaykal
           airbase near the Damascus SAM belt and the 1st and 5th Mig-25
           squadrons operate from the heavily defended Tiyas airbase east of
           Homs. Fighter and Interceptor aircraft are also charged with
           protecting the eastern half of Syria from attack, where Syrian SAM
           defenses are minimal.

           The Syrian AD network is comprehensive but that does not mean that
           it is able to stand up against a concerted air campaign by
           entities such as NATO or Israel. The Syrians are well aware of
           this, and have made substantial efforts to upgrade their defenses
           by seeking to purchase more modern SAM systems and aircraft such
           as the Mig-31. However, as can clearly be seen from the Israeli
           strike on a Syrian nuclear reactor (Operation Orchard), the Syrian
           AD network can be a serious threat that has to be averted. In the
           Operation Orchard case, IAF F-15Is from the 69th squadron
           deliberately flew over Turkey near the Syrian border to avoid the
           vast bulk of the Syrian defenses. In addition, the nuclear reactor
           was situated in the Deir ez-Zor region, deep in Eastern Syria
           where the only real defenses are obsolete Mig-21 aircraft from the
           8th squadron.

           The Syrian AD network is not very technologically sophisticated,
           but it is large and dangerous enough to pose a serious threat to
           any aircraft operating over Syria. Thus, if a decision to impose a
           no-fly zone or buffer zone is taken, then a concerted bombing
           campaign in Syria will ultimately be the result. Such a campaign
           could easily lead to escalation and unpredictable results. The
           decision to impose a no-fly zone over Syria is no easy matter, and
           would constitute a seismic shift in the region.

 --
 Omar Lamrani
 ADP
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 www.STARTFOR.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-09 00:51:28</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/178875_re-discussion-what-does-a-no-fly-zone-buffer-zone-over-syria.html</permalink>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>178936</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
</title>
    <description>   ahah well yea European revolutions took place. But what im saying is that
   we are past that. Thats why i dont see these protests as actual "protest"
   but rather as just expression of discontent in a very democratic way.

   On 11/11/11 9:43 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     1848

     Europeans are no different than those Third World Arabs.

     (With all due respect, of course.)

     On 11/11/11 9:36 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

       With all due respect to people in Tunisia and/or third world
       countries, Europeans behave A LOT differently when it comes to
       protests. That of course doesnt mean that stuff might go down. And i
       totally see your concern with the Puerta del Sol square. What i think
       is that in Tunisia stuff spread around for different reasons. The arab
       spring type protests are of completely different nature than the one
       in Europe.

       On 11/11/11 9:31 AM, Christoph Helbling wrote:

         The protests in Tunisia were national still they jumped to other
         countries. I agree with you that we aren't likely to see a pan
         European movement.
         I was taking it a bit far when I was speaking about dead protesters
         and in the case of Spain I'm not speaking about protesters attacking
         each other like in Greece, I'm speaking about clashes with the
         authorities. The regional government apparently added the Puerta del
         Sol square to the ban list although it wasn't on that list during
         the May elections. I might be reading it wrongly but to me that
         seems like a provocation.

         On 11/11/11 9:19 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

           I personally don't agree with this statement "these protests could
           lead to an open societal crisis in Spain and spark to other
           countries". What we have in Europe is NATIONAL protests. These
           protests focus on the NATIONAL parliament and cannot therefore
           spread in Europe. You might have them in several countries but i
           dont think they spread because they are unrelated (despite the
           same economic shitty background) Plus, protests of this kind are
           usually peaceful, there is a decent level of understanding within
           the crowds that protests that killing each other isn't going to
           make a difference. Now we might have like always the 20 idiots
           that ruin it for everyone (think of the Rome revolts) but i dont
           foresee any dead or injured people. Protests dont automatically
           imply "bad" events to come

           On 11/11/11 8:02 AM, Christoph Helbling wrote:

             these protests could lead to an open societal crisis in Spain
             and spark to other countries. Are these protests going to breed
             the future leaders of Europe?

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Christoph Helbling
 ADP
 STRATFOR

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701
</description>
    <date>2011-11-11 16:43:30</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-23 07:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/178936_re-discussion-spanish-protesters-.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>antonio.caracciolo@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>179068</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
</title>
    <description>   More statements like preislers coming from germany
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 11 Nov 2011 10:40:20 -0600 (CST)
   To: Benjamin Preisler&lt;ben.preisler@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;; Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
   what will it take to bring those types into the street?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Benjamin Preisler" &lt;ben.preisler@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;, friedman@att.blackberry.net
   Sent: Friday, November 11, 2011 10:38:40 AM
   Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters

   I'd really watch out to not overestimate these people's suffering (with
   all due respect to their personal plight). In Greece demonstrators are
   pretty much working insiders protecting their rents against a government
   actually being forced to reform. We're not talking about dirt-poor
   desperate people with no future such as in Tunisia. In Spain I believe
   demonstrations are more dominated by younger university educated types,
   protests are also much smaller. The same holds true for Italy I think. My
   point being, we're not looking at your typical 'revolutionary' potential
   of people with nothing to lose willing to risk anything. Those guys aren't
   out on the street yet. Once they are out there, these protests actually
   matter in a system-threatening manner until then I wouldn't worry about it
   too much.

   On 11/11/2011 05:25 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

      Europeans aren't protesting the approval of a new EU constitutional
     amendment. They're protesting out of fear that they're going to lose the
     roof on their heads.  the more basic your demands, the more likely the
     protests will turn violent, and we can already see that the elites
     handling the crisis won't be able to manage this crisis in the end. the
     musical chairs we're seeing right now in the Greek and Italian
     governments is likely only the beginning. we have to see that as the
     manifestation of a much broader crisis in confidence, not on a national
     level, but on the european level.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "George Friedman" &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;
     To: "Analysts Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Friday, November 11, 2011 10:14:24 AM
     Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters

     Europe has not had mass violent protests since the 1960s although it has
     had violence and terrorism. Its been quiet since the 1990s if you ignore
     yugoslavia.

     The europeans regard this new period as normal and the past as
     irrelevant. It seems to me that the radical shifts in structure returns
     europe to its prior state and with it mass violence becomes likely not
     just possible. Europe has a violent history and that history is not so
     long ago.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Colby Martin &lt;colby.martin@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 11 Nov 2011 10:10:30 -0600 (CST)
     To: &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
     I am not sure how you can argue European protesters are not going to
     turn to violence and the authorities won't resort to draconian measures
     to suppress them.  Right now the unemployed still have those nice little
     social programs (especially in Spain) to support them so I agree right
     now they should remain low key.  But if the gov't has to reduce those
     programs or cut them altogether, the protests could turn into bad in a
     hurry.  I just want to make sure this isn't the European argument that
     "they" are more civilized, therefore violence is a thing of the past. (I
     throw up in my mouth a little every time a European tells me this)

     On 11/11/11 9:51 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

       I see your point, but what i dont agree with is when we imply that
       protests that happened in Tunisia can be compared to possible future
       ones in Europe. the word protests is very different when you compare
       north africa and european nations. A protest during the Arab spring,
       implied death injured and so on. A protest in europe (i.e Italy and
       Spain) is just a march that isnt a big deal. Rome marches were the
       same, nothing happened despite the fact that the Media made a big deal
       out of literally burnt cars by punks.

       On 11/11/11 9:48 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

         You're changing the argument. Your assertion that things can't
         spread from country to country because they are based on national
         issues is flawed. You have similar economic conditions in almost
         every European country at the moment. The issues aren't the same as
         what existed in the Arab world last winter, and nor are the nature
         of the regimes in power. No one is saying that. What we're saying is
         that Tunisia provides an example of how protest movements have the
         ability to spread to other countries that feature similar
         socioeconomic conditions.

         On 11/11/11 9:38 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

           Protests in Egypt that spread all over the place were based on the
           ability of people to say what they want and be able to get a
           decent rule of law and government. In Europe we have that,
           unfortunately we have a shitty economy, the protests are there but
           are unrelated because each country has its own way to approach the
           economic issues. We wont kill each other like people in north
           Africa, were past that, and again no offense to people from the
           region. Europeans live for the most part in democracies,
           expressing a discontent (which is what is happening now) is
           different from fighting for your freedom (i.e Egypt, Tunisia,
           Libya)

           On 11/11/11 9:34 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

             Without wading into the particulars of this discussion, I will
             just say that your logic re: national protests not being able to
             spread to other countries is flawed. How were the gripes of
             Egyptians last January related to the national uprising in
             Tunisia? And so on.

             On 11/11/11 9:19 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

               I personally don't agree with this statement "these protests
               could lead to an open societal crisis in Spain and spark to
               other countries". What we have in Europe is NATIONAL protests.
               These protests focus on the NATIONAL parliament and cannot
               therefore spread in Europe. You might have them in several
               countries but i dont think they spread because they are
               unrelated (despite the same economic shitty background) Plus,
               protests of this kind are usually peaceful, there is a decent
               level of understanding within the crowds that protests that
               killing each other isn't going to make a difference. Now we
               might have like always the 20 idiots that ruin it for everyone
               (think of the Rome revolts) but i dont foresee any dead or
               injured people. Protests dont automatically imply "bad" events
               to come

               On 11/11/11 8:02 AM, Christoph Helbling wrote:

                 these protests could lead to an open societal crisis in
                 Spain and spark to other countries. Are these protests going
                 to breed the future leaders of Europe?

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +216 22 73 23 19
 www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-11 17:42:15</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-23 07:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/179068_re-discussion-spanish-protesters-.html</permalink>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>180174</id>
    <title>Re: analysis for comment - europe, where we are right now
</title>
    <description>   nice wrap-up

   2 comments

   1. When talking about Berlusconi's parliamentary majority, i think it's
   also worth mentioning his media empire that gives him and his allies a lot
   of clout in a crisis like this.  There have already been rallies organized
   by the editors of newspapers owned by his supporters that condemn the
   global markets of attempting a coup d'etat in Italy. Didn't Berlusconi
   even say speciically that he would back Monti, but make his presence felt
   in parliament?  sounds like a threat to really screw things up in order to
   keep his legacy alive.

   2.  What's the limit for Italian borrowing rates?  we're watching it creep
   up and up, but what's the ballpark at which Italy can no longer take it
   and have to default?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Michael Wilson" &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, November 14, 2011 1:25:20 PM
   Subject: Re: analysis for comment - europe, where we are right now

   On 11/14/11 12:17 PM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

     Over the weekend the German press was abuzz with potential solutions to
     the ongoing European financial crisis. Treaty changes and new
     enforcement mechanisms are being discussed within German political
     parties with some proposals likely to hit debate within a few weeks.
     Chancellor Angela Merkel even started putting out some tentative
     deadlines, with the penciled-in goal to have fully treaty revision texts
     ready to submit to national parliaments for ratification by the spring
     of 2012.

   note this is from a source to reuters

     In the German mind, the European financial crisis wouldna**t have
     happened had not Europea**s integrative processes been much more deeply
     developed, and they are seizing the crisis in an attempt to impose that
     solution on a somewhat fractious Europe.

      

     The Germans have a point. Fixing a crisis of this magnitude does indeed
     require a full fiscal union. Until there is a singular government that
     can regulate the entire eurozone and redistribute resources as
     necessary, Europe will at best be lurching from crisis to crisis. But
     just as the tools for managing modern Europe are insufficient for the
     job, so too are the tools for pushing Europe towards a full union.
     Parliaments across Northern Europe have already made their displeasure
     known, and new funding for the bailout programs for the eurozonea**s
     weaker states appears to be off the table. Without a transnational
     political system or a larger transnational bailout program, it is
     difficult to envision a process that could lead Europe to stronger
     central governance. But that is the challenge before the Germans at
     present, and here is how theya**re trying to make it all work.

      

     First, if the Southern European governments cannot implement the
     necessary austerity, then those governments must be changed. Using
     control over the bailout fund and the EUa**s largest market, heavy
     influence over the Commission, and old fashioned political arm-twisting,
     the Germans have already brought about the fall of (now former) Prime
     Minister George Papandreou and Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.
     In their place are to be national unity governments that hopefully can
     achieve what elected governments could not.

      

     Second, all EU states must agree to new treaty changes that streamline a
     host of decisionmaking processes in favor of Northern Europe,
     specifically Germany. There is quite a laundry list of issues to be
     fixed. The ECB voting structure may will be changed to heavily favor
     larger states (currently Malta has the same say as Germany) I dont think
     this is true, We had a discussion on this a few weeks ago. There is
     already GDP weighting, they just want to make it more so. States who run
     excessive deficits can be brought before the European Court of Justice.
     The European Commission, the bailout fund and other European structures
     will be able to intervene directly in the fiscal processes of struggling
     European states.

   I would also mention recent 6 pack legislation which will already be able
   to withold structural and CAP funds

      

     Third, beyond treaty changes, constitutional amendments must be adopted
     by all eurozone members to hardwire budgetary controls in at the
     national level -- along with pre-approval for European institutions to
     intervene should those controls be violated. Collectively these measures
     are intended to push all eurozone states into budgetary surplus (after
     interest payments are included) so that Southern Europea**s debt
     mountains can be whittled down over time.

      

     And perhaps most critically, to keep all of this -- the shift in
     governments and certainly the treaty change approvals -- out of the
     hands of the European publics. Votes on European issues often transform
     into referendums on governments, and there are very few European
     governments these day who enjoy strong public support. Of particular
     fear is that any actual referendums would wholeheartedly reject not only
     the integrative steps that might lead Europe out of the crisis, but even
     reject the slapdash solutions -- such as the Greek bailout program --
     that are keeping the European system from blowing apart.

     But getting from here to there is no small challenge.

   Somehwere you could also mention Spain looks set to try to get ahead of
   this. Even though PP in Spain looks set to win its own minority it will
   bring in a "professional/independent" econ manager

      

     As events of the past week have already amply demonstrated, arranging
     the resignation of the previous government leaders was the easy part --
     forming reliable replacement governments is another matter entirely.
     European institutions have attempted to get the entire Greek political
     leadership to commit themselves in writing to the austerity programs no
     matter should they find themselves in charge of the government in the
     future. Yet the (former) opposition -- led by New Democracy leader
     Antonis Samaras -- not only refused to make such commitments, but is
     already lobbying against the very austerity measures that the national
     unity government was expressly formed to implement.

      

     Italya**s current political situation is even more curious. Berlusconi
     has indeed resigned, and Mario Monti has been selected to succeed him --
     but Monti lacks a government. Say what you will about Berlusconi (and
     therea**s a lot to be said) but he is the only person in post-WWII
     reconstruction Italy who has ever been able to hold a government
     together to term. He was also not the person -- or leading the party --
     who was so fervently against austerity measures. So now Monti somehow
     has to cobble together a government that somehow weasels its way around
     the fact that Berlusconia**s People of Freedoma**s Party of the
     anti-austerity Northern League are the largest and third-largest parties
     in the parliament. Therea**s also the largely overlooked detail that
     Berlusconi has only resigned from the prime ministera**s chair -- not
     from politics. It doesna**t take a particular creative mind to imagine
     what the most powerful Italian politician/businessman leading the
     largest parliamentary block thinks about the coalition of forces that
     edged him out of power.

      

     Even if technocrats such as Monti or new Greek Prime Minister Lucas
     Papademos can somehow form stable governments and piece together serious
     austerity packages and even sign off on German-mandated
     constitutional/treaty revisions, those actions will still need to be
     approved by their respective parliaments. Having technocrats in charge
     might be nice -- even wise -- but completely short-circuiting the
     democratic process is simply not possible.

      

     The democratic deficit becomes of particular importance once the issue
     of unrest and strikes are taken into account. Governments -- even
     national unity governments -- seen as caving to the Germans are going to
     be challenged by citizens who do not wish to suffer economically,
     particularly under rules established by outsiders. Technocratic
     governments are viable options for very short-term needs if the policies
     in question have popular acquiescence. But these technocratic
     governments are being implemented expressly to avoid a popular vote,
     with the leaders of those governments asserting that they will need to
     remain in power until at least 2013. A far more likely outcome of this
     process is that these governments will radicalize the population,
     driving wedges between increasingly angry publics and elites already
     widely viewed as disconnected from reality.

   Though also I think there has been some popular (though maybe only
   editorial elite) acclamation for technocrats as people who can actually
   get shit done as opposed to feuding elites

      

     But perhaps the biggest flaw in the developing plan is that it assumes
     that no one will notice its flaws. Markets trade on events of the day,
     and simply in the past 24 hours many of the plana**s shortcomings in
     Greece and Italy have boiled to the surface. Bond markets have become
     ever-more-distrustful of whatever the latest and greatest announcement
     out of Europe for solving the crisis is. Italian borrowing costs are now
     at a 14-year high. Germany has found that sort of financial pressure
     useful in bringing Italy to bear -- would Berlusconi have stepped aside
     otherwise? But ita**s a very dangerous tool: should rates go too high
     too fast Italy will have no choice but to default, and its 1.9 trillion
     euro in debt would crash not only the Italian economy but the
     Continental banking sector in a matter of days.

      

     Its not as if Greece and Italy are the end of Europea**s problems,
     either. Ireland may have proved itself as the bailout state most loyally
     implementing austerity by both spirit and letter, but the Irish
     tenaciously defend their overall sovereignty. Their government is not
     likely to give way to a national unity government, nor is it likely that
     the Irish will settle for anything less than a full national referendum
     on any EU treaty changes. And lest anyone forget, the Irish have vetoed
     major European treaties before.

      

     Spain also presents a major stumbling block. National parliamentary
     elections will be held just one week from now, and a government with a
     fresh political mandate is not the sort of government that the Germans
     will be able to force to adopt this or that policy. Spain may have shown
     a greater tolerance for cutting spending and its overall debt load may
     be only half of Italya**s, but its budget deficit is nearly double.

   yeah but PP looks set to win a majority, meaning it wont have to rely on
   bribing regional parties. Also they are looking to implement the same
   technocratic economic governance by bringin

   Spain's likely new gov't seeks crisis manager for economy
   http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/10/spain-election-ministers-idUSLDE7A905V20111110

   Nov 10 (Reuters) - Centre-right opposition leader Mariano Rajoy, poised to
   win Spain's Nov. 20 parliamentary election, is seeking an internationally
   respected figure for economy minister to win over nervous investors in the
   deepening euro zone crisis.

   Analysts and insiders from Rajoy's People's Party (PP) say he wants a
   manager with clout and experience, but not necessarily someone from within
   the party.

   The PP could separate the Economy Ministry into two, with one for economy
   and one for finance, as it was under the last centre-right government.

   Rajoy, expected to oust the Socialists who have been in power for more
   than seven years, will implement drastic spending cuts and economic
   reforms that could revive production in the medium term but will push the
   economy into recession next year.

   Following are some of the names most frequently mentioned for Economy
   Minister by political and financial sources:

   Luis de Guindos (51)

   De Guindos is director of the respected Spanish business school Instituto
   de Empresa and an independent board member of the energy group Endesa. He
   is said to speak with Rajoy frequently.

   He served as economy secretary -- a high-ranking position reporting to the
   Economy Minister -- under the previous conservative Prime Minister Jose
   Maria Aznar from 2002 to 2004. He also held other key positions within the
   ministry from 1996.

   De Guindos was chief executive of Lehman Brothers Spain and Portugal
   2006-2008, and later responsible for the financial division of
   PriceWaterhouseCoopers.

   Cristobal Montoro (61)

   Montoro heads the People's Party economic team and acts as a kind of
   shadow economy minister. He sits in the European Parliament for the PP, as
   well as in the lower house of parliament in Spain.

   Montoro was economy secretary, also under Aznar, from 1996 to 2000 and
   then finance minister from 2000 to 2004.

   Some political pundits are doubtful Montoro has the international clout to
   make the position of economy minister in the current climate, though his
   place close to Rajoy is likely to guarantee some important post within the
   economic team.

   Josep Pique (56)

   A Catalan businessman and politician, Josep Pique is chairman of the
   Spanish airline Vueling and president of the influential Barcelona-based
   think tank Circulo de Economia.

   He served in the PP government from 1996 to 2003 first as industry
   minister, then government spokesman and later foreign minister and
   minister of science.

   From 2003 to 2007, Pique headed the PP in Catalonia, a region where the
   party has traditionally been weak.

   Fernando Becker (56)

   Head of corporate resources at the Spanish energy group Iberdrola, Becker
   holds a doctorate in economics.

   He was previously the president of the state lender, the Official Credit
   Institute, under the Aznar government and up until 1999.

   He also served as an economics advisor to the regional government of
   Castilla y Leon.

   Becker is said to be close to the conservative think tank FAES, which is
   presided over by Aznar. And he attended college with Rajoy.

   Francisco Gonzalez (67)

   Gonzalez has been chairman and chief executive of Spain's second largest
   bank BBVA since 2000. He is the vice-chairman of the Institute of
   International Finance (IIF) and sits on the International advisory
   committee of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

   Although Gonzalez speaks frequently with Rajoy and has well-established
   ties to the PP, he is not seen as likely to jump at a political position.

     Therea**s plenty of room for things to go (disastrously) wrong. Even
     quiet Belgium -- with a national debt right at 100 percent of GDP -- has
     lurking landmines. While the pro-European Belgians might be more willing
     to give a national unity government a try than other states, it has now
     been 517 days since Belgium had a government. Any a**unitya** government
     that is forced upon Belgium would be, well, forced upon it.

      

     Save Italy, all of these states could trigger a financial cascade that
     could bring down the entire European edifice. The only reason that Italy
     is an exception is that its big enough that it would bring Europe down
     all by itself.

      

      

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-14 22:35:17</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-04-01 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/180174_re-analysis-for-comment-europe-where-we-are-right-now-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>181299</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged "Anonymous" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise "anonymous"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-10 19:47:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/181299_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>183498</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
</title>
    <description>   Ok lets put the idea of killing aside.
   Still youth unemployment is at 46%! A lot of university graduates with
   spare time to discuss and think. I'm sure they're discussing their future
   and that looks shit, so something has to change in their opinion.

   On 11/11/11 9:43 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

     ahah well yea European revolutions took place. But what im saying is
     that we are past that. Thats why i dont see these protests as actual
     "protest" but rather as just expression of discontent in a very
     democratic way.

     On 11/11/11 9:43 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

       1848

       Europeans are no different than those Third World Arabs.

       (With all due respect, of course.)

       On 11/11/11 9:36 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

         With all due respect to people in Tunisia and/or third world
         countries, Europeans behave A LOT differently when it comes to
         protests. That of course doesnt mean that stuff might go down. And i
         totally see your concern with the Puerta del Sol square. What i
         think is that in Tunisia stuff spread around for different reasons.
         The arab spring type protests are of completely different nature
         than the one in Europe.

         On 11/11/11 9:31 AM, Christoph Helbling wrote:

           The protests in Tunisia were national still they jumped to other
           countries. I agree with you that we aren't likely to see a pan
           European movement.
           I was taking it a bit far when I was speaking about dead
           protesters and in the case of Spain I'm not speaking about
           protesters attacking each other like in Greece, I'm speaking about
           clashes with the authorities. The regional government apparently
           added the Puerta del Sol square to the ban list although it wasn't
           on that list during the May elections. I might be reading it
           wrongly but to me that seems like a provocation.

           On 11/11/11 9:19 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

             I personally don't agree with this statement "these protests
             could lead to an open societal crisis in Spain and spark to
             other countries". What we have in Europe is NATIONAL protests.
             These protests focus on the NATIONAL parliament and cannot
             therefore spread in Europe. You might have them in several
             countries but i dont think they spread because they are
             unrelated (despite the same economic shitty background) Plus,
             protests of this kind are usually peaceful, there is a decent
             level of understanding within the crowds that protests that
             killing each other isn't going to make a difference. Now we
             might have like always the 20 idiots that ruin it for everyone
             (think of the Rome revolts) but i dont foresee any dead or
             injured people. Protests dont automatically imply "bad" events
             to come

             On 11/11/11 8:02 AM, Christoph Helbling wrote:

               these protests could lead to an open societal crisis in Spain
               and spark to other countries. Are these protests going to
               breed the future leaders of Europe?

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Christoph Helbling
 ADP
 STRATFOR

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Christoph Helbling
 ADP
 STRATFOR
</description>
    <date>2011-11-11 16:49:31</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-23 07:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/183498_re-discussion-spanish-protesters-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>christoph.helbling@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>183507</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-11 13:59:34</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/183507_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>183896</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
</title>
    <description>The "indignant citizens movement" is intended to be transnational - It star=
ted in Spain with the local elections in May. But the youth protesters in G=
reece seized on the idea this summer. They've popped up in other places too=
 - Italy, the UK, France and even Germany. The protesters are all locals pr=
otesting national issues but the concept of there being some sense of solid=
arity amongst the unemployed youth of Europe is already there.


On Nov 11, 2011, at 10:01 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

&gt; We are strictly talking about the idea of contagion, not the nature of th=
e disease. It's like how in the First World, a really bad cough spreads aro=
und an office full of cubicle, and in Africa, people are spreading around H=
IV or Ebola or some other bad shit. There is still a contagion effect occur=
ing, whether you're talking #firstworldproblems or #arabspring.
&gt;=20
&gt; Just trying to shoot down the incorrect notion that a "national" protest =
in Spain does not have the ability to inspire French, Italian, Greek, Belgi=
an (ha!), Austrian, Portuguese, Irish, British, whoever else to do the same=
. Even if they are more civilized and inherently democratic by nature of th=
eir upbringing in a decadent society in which people speak multiple languag=
es and only wave their respective flags during the World Cup, they still lo=
ok around at what is happening in neighboring countries and get inspired.
&gt;=20
&gt;=20
&gt;=20
&gt; On 11/11/11 9:51 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:
&gt;&gt;=20
&gt;&gt; I see your point, but what i dont agree with is when we imply that prote=
sts that happened in Tunisia can be compared to possible future ones in Eur=
ope. the word protests is very different when you compare north africa and =
european nations. A protest during the Arab spring, implied death injured a=
nd so on. A protest in europe (i.e Italy and Spain) is just a march that is=
nt a big deal. Rome marches were the same, nothing happened despite the fac=
t that the Media made a big deal out of literally burnt cars by punks.
&gt;&gt;=20
&gt;&gt; On 11/11/11 9:48 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;=20
&gt;&gt;&gt; You're changing the argument. Your assertion that things can't spread f=
rom country to country because they are based on national issues is flawed.=
 You have similar economic conditions in almost every European country at t=
he moment. The issues aren't the same as what existed in the Arab world las=
t winter, and nor are the nature of the regimes in power. No one is saying =
that. What we're saying is that Tunisia provides an example of how protest =
movements have the ability to spread to other countries that feature simila=
r socioeconomic conditions.
&gt;&gt;&gt;=20
&gt;&gt;&gt;=20
&gt;&gt;&gt;=20
&gt;&gt;&gt;=20
&gt;&gt;&gt;=20
&gt;&gt;&gt;=20
&gt;&gt;&gt;=20
&gt;&gt;&gt;=20
&gt;&gt;&gt;=20
&gt;&gt;&gt; On 11/11/11 9:38 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;=20
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Protests in Egypt that spread all over the place were based on the abi=
lity of people to say what they want and be able to get a decent rule of la=
w and government. In Europe we have that, unfortunately we have a shitty ec=
onomy, the protests are there but are unrelated because each country has it=
s own way to approach the economic issues. We wont kill each other like peo=
ple in north Africa, were past that, and again no offense to people from th=
e region. Europeans live for the most part in democracies, expressing a dis=
content (which is what is happening now) is different from fighting for you=
r freedom (i.e Egypt, Tunisia, Libya)
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;=20
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On 11/11/11 9:34 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;=20
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Without wading into the particulars of this discussion, I will just s=
ay that your logic re: national protests not being able to spread to other =
countries is flawed. How were the gripes of Egyptians last January related =
to the national uprising in Tunisia? And so on.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;=20
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;=20
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;=20
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;=20
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On 11/11/11 9:19 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;=20
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; I personally don't agree with this statement "these protests could l=
ead to an open societal crisis in Spain and spark to other countries". What=
 we have in Europe is NATIONAL protests. These protests focus on the NATION=
AL parliament and cannot therefore spread in Europe. You might have them in=
 several countries but i dont think they spread because they are unrelated =
(despite the same economic shitty background) Plus, protests of this kind a=
re usually peaceful, there is a decent level of understanding within the cr=
owds that protests that killing each other isn't going to make a difference=
. Now we might have like always the 20 idiots that ruin it for everyone (th=
ink of the Rome revolts) but i dont foresee any dead or injured people. Pro=
tests dont automatically imply "bad" events to come
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;=20
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On 11/11/11 8:02 AM, Christoph Helbling wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;=20
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; these protests could lead to an open societal crisis in Spain and s=
park to other countries. Are these protests going to breed the future leade=
rs of Europe?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;=20
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; --=20
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Antonio Caracciolo
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Analyst Development Program
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; STRATFOR
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Austin,TX 78701
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;=20
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;=20
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; --=20
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Antonio Caracciolo
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Analyst Development Program
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; STRATFOR
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Austin,TX 78701
&gt;&gt;&gt;=20
&gt;&gt;=20
&gt;&gt; --=20
&gt;&gt; Antonio Caracciolo
&gt;&gt; Analyst Development Program
&gt;&gt; STRATFOR
&gt;&gt; 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
&gt;&gt; Austin,TX 78701
&gt;=20
</description>
    <date>2011-11-11 17:08:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-23 07:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/183896_re-discussion-spanish-protesters-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kristen.cooper@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>184236</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
 CODE
</title>
    <description>   It might sound strange, but some of the most radical deep ecology people
   actually believe that there are too many people on the earth and that
   radical steps must be taken to reduce the population and save the earth.
    This strain of deep ecology is a clear reflection of the way the movement
   was heavily influenced by people like Martin Heidegger who were also
   committed to Nazism. Yes, Nazis were radical environmentalists.....
   From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 23:08:31 -0600
   To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Jesus I spent a couple of hours researching these guys - weird is an
   understatement. Apparently they met yesterday a couple of blocks away from
   my house to consolidate their leadership, go through basic indoctrination
   and plan more events. As far as I can tell, the Austin chapter is not
   nearly as radical as the central Lierre Keith DGR whose website is a
   treasure trove of incitment to passive resistance, blowing up energy
   infra, basic counter intel and legal guidance.

   Their ideology seems to be a mix of hardcore environmentalism, anarchism,
   radical feminism and the general notion that we need to go back living
   sustainably like the american indians by blowing up every pipeline and
   cell tower on the planet. Unlike the central DGR, Austin DGR doesn't seem
   to have defined targets and goals (their meeting yesterday was a
   brainstorming session on what radical environmentalism means in Austin).

   just a few nice quotes from their central website:

   The task of an activist is not to navigate systems of oppressive power
   with as much personal integrity as possible; it is to dismantle those
   systems.

   What would we do if Nazis had invaded, and they were vacuuming the oceans,
   scalping native forests, damming every river, changing the climate, and
   putting carcinogens into every mother's breast milk, and into the flesh of
   your children, your lover, your mother, into your own flesh? How much
   worse would the damage have to get? Would you resist? If there existed a
   resistance movement, would you join it?

   On 11/16/11 7:42 PM, Victoria Allen wrote:

     WHOA.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 18:38:01 -0600
     To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Cc: Anya Alfano&lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
     CODE
     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not "radical" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the "Phoenix Commune" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as "stupid, crazy motherfuckers", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, "Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-17 14:01:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/184236_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>185945</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in Iran
</title>
    <description>   I am not saying that we should believe something only when it hits the OS.
   My point is about proceeding forward from a single source report. We
   shouldn't completely dismiss it but the issue is confirmation before
   something related pops up in the OS.

   On 11/14/11 9:30 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

     Yes but an intelligence agency that secures a single piece of insight
     that is then corroborated by the infamous OS leads one to believe that
     either the same source is responsible for both or perhaps there is smoke
     that indicates a fire?    We tend to not believe things unless there is
     OS.  The best intel never see's the light of day.  I'm more circumspect
     when it is in the OS...unless of course, we planted it.  

     p.s. I'm offended that we may believe an Iranian before a Jew. 

     cc:  APAC, JINSA. 

     On 11/14/2011 8:21 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

       As an intelligence entity we can't simply accept a single piece of
       insight as truth.

       On 11/14/11 9:10 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

         Guerrilla actions behind enemy lines.  

         If we think the Izzies have set back waiting on Iran to create a
         bomb we are like the CIA with their inability to predict just about
         anything. 

         Check INSIGHT I posted last week that everyone discounted.  How come
         if its not in OS we nash our teeth?  Intelligence agencies exist to
         have sources.  That is what we are.  

         On 11/14/2011 8:06 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

           Penetrating a major military installation and causing a blast is a
           totally different ballgame. Not saying it can't happen. But we
           can't assume that because they did stuxnet that they are capable
           of doing this blast as well. It is a huge leap in capabilities.

           Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
           Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
           Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 08:03:34 -0600 (CST)
           To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
           ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
           Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
           blast in Iran
           It clearly does not. Look at the thousand centrifuges. Please
           reread the 2 stuxnet analyses.

           There are enough iranians who have aliyah'd to israel that they
           could easily train a persian looking, farsi speaking jew to go
           into Iran for sabotage and not get caught. I don't know that this
           is happening nor do I assume that there would not be mistakes, but
           its very possible to do this undetected. The key is recruiting
           human agents on the bases. This was clearly done with stuxnet,
           though it may have been unknowingly

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: "Kamran Bokhari" &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
           Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
           Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 07:59:47 -0600 (CST)
           To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
           ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
           Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
           blast in Iran
           Yeah this seems really unlikely. '79 was a whole different
           reality. The security establishment has the placed locked down.
           Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: Abe Selig &lt;abe.selig@stratfor.com&gt;
           Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
           Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 07:45:14 -0600 (CST)
           To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
           ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
           Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
           blast in Iran
           There are still about 20,000 Jews in Iran (Tehran and Esfahan
           mostly), but IMO, they are far too scared of being accused as
           Israeli spies too actually help Israel out.

           On 11/14/11 7:32 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

             Ah.  As stick said, they would more likely use proxies.  But if
             not,  special operations forces do often move undetected.  Don't
             think of them as going in on a helicopter, think of them as
             going in with a group of migrant workers crossing the border. 
             There used to be a lot of jews in Iran, not so much anymore,
             that's who I would recruit form. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: "Kamran Bokhari" &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
             To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
             Sent: Monday, November 14, 2011 7:11:15 AM
             Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
             blast in Iran

             See insight below.
             Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
             Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
             Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 07:10:06 -0600 (CST)
             To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
             ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
             Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
             blast in Iran
             what commandos?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: "Kamran Bokhari" &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
             To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
             Sent: Monday, November 14, 2011 6:39:07 AM
             Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
             blast in Iran

             How did Israeli commandos get to operate deep inside Iran
             without being detected?
             Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
             Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
             Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 05:54:41 -0600 (CST)
             To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
             ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
             Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
             blast in Iran
             I agree.  The argument here is that the proponents of
             conventional war are ones that want the oil prices--but is it
             really that simple?  What about other economic effects?  For
             Israel, by this argument, it doesn't matter what method as long
             as it sets Iran back----I agree with this.  However, the
             confidence that this guy has does not show publicly.  By that, I
             mean look at what Dagan was saying a year ago, and how quiet
             Israeli leaders have been.  Suddenly they are really pushing the
             issue, and while Dagan isn't it, his line is that conventional
             war would be a mistake, not that Iran doesn't need to be dealt
             with.  I don't really like trying to interpret public
             statements, but I think there is something here, and that's why
             I keep pushing this. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: "Chris Farnham" &lt;chris.farnham@stratfor.com&gt;
             To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
             Sent: Sunday, November 13, 2011 7:22:52 PM
             Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
             blast in Iran

             I think the info that Fred sent in previously needs to be looked
             quite seriously here.

             The insight seems like quite a stretch however it has been put
             out there for some reason or another and is now playing in to
             what we are seeing.

             Insight below:

             Source below was asked to clarify his remarks that the nuclear
             infrastructure had been destroyed.  Source response:

             Israeli commandos in collaboration with Kurd forces destroyed
             few underground facilities mainly used for the Iranian defense
             and nuclear research projects.

             Despite the reports in the media and against any public
             knowledge, the promoter of a massive Israeli attack on Syria is
             the axis India-Russia-Turkey-Saudi Arabia. The axis
             US-Germany-France-China is against such an attack from obvious
             reasons. Not many people know that Russia is one of Israel's
             largest military partners and India is Israel's largest client.

             If a direct conflict between Iran and Israel erupts, Russia and
             Saudi Arabia will gain the advantages on oil increasing prices.
             On the other hand, China and Europe are expected to loose from
             an oil crisis as a result of a conflict. Based on Israeli plans,
             the attack on Iran will last only 48 hours but will be so
             destructive that Iran will be unable to retaliate or recover and
             the government will fall. It is hard to believe that Hamas or
             Hezbollah will try to get involved in this conflict.

             In the open media many are pushing and expecting Israel to
             launch a massive attack on Iran. Even if the Israelis have the
             capabilities and are ready to attack by air, sea and land, there
             is no need to attack the nuclear program at this point after the
             commandos destroyed a significant part of it.

             If a massive attack on Iran happens soon, then the attack will
             have political and oil reasons and not nuclear. It is also very
             hard to believe that the Israelis will initiate an attack unless
             they act as a contractor for other nations or if Iran or its
             proxies attack first. With the revealed of the new UN report the
             Israelis have green light to take care of the Iranian proxies in
             Gaza and Lebanon now with the entire world watching Iran. I
             think that we should expect escalations on these fronts rather
             than an Israeli attack on Iran.

             On 11/7/11 8:09 AM, Chris Farnham wrote: Ah, what? Israel has
             already destroyed the Iranian prog/infra and this is all being
             engineered by Europeans so people forget about the economy
             crisis?!

             How and when did the Israelis destroy the infra on the ground?

             Why is that we see the vast majority of the increase in pressure
             coming from Israel (I mean straight from people's mouths) and
             from the US (Such as Albright in the WaPo)?

             Would anyone actually accept that this could let the Europeans
             forget about the Euro crisis, something they have been
             experiencing every day for over a year?!

             Do we attribute any credibility to this item at all? I don't
             even see what possible disinfo purposes this could serve.

             On 11/7/11 7:54 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

               Code: IL701
               Publication: for background
               Attribution: none
               Source Description - Confirmed Israeli Intelligence Agent
               Source reliability: Still testing
               Item credibility: untested
               Source handler: Fred

               Source was asked what he thought of reports that the Israelis
               were preparing a military offensive against Iran.  Response:

               I think this is a diversion. The Israelis already destroyed
               all the Iranian nuclear infrastructure on the ground weeks
               ago. The current "let's bomb Iran" campaign was ordered by the
               EU leaders to divert the public attention from their at home
               financial problems. It plays also well for the US  since
               Pakistan, Russia and N. Korea are mentioned in the report. 

               The result of this campaign will be massive attacks on Gaza
               and strikes on Hezbollah in both Lebanon and Syria.

               --

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
             To: analysts@stratfor.com
             Sent: Monday, 14 November, 2011 11:52:04 AM
             Subject: Re: S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in
             Iran

             wow, that's an extremely revealing statement.  The Israelis (i
             believe it was even Barak then too) made very similar comments
             following the Stuxnet news as well.  THe whole 'I'm not going to
             admit publicly that we did it, but boy that was nice.' 

             i think we need a piece laying out the details as far as we know
             of what happened and where and point out the holes in the
             accident theory. i think our assessment on the constraints of an
             Israeli attack on Iranian sites holds. It's the sabotage efforts
             where the most resources are being concentrated, which makes a
             lot of strategic and tactical sense for Israel and US in dealing
             with Iran at this stage

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: "Ben West" &lt;ben.west@stratfor.com&gt;
             To: "alerts" &lt;alerts@stratfor.com&gt;
             Sent: Sunday, November 13, 2011 2:40:06 PM
             Subject: S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in
             Iran

             Interesting comments by the defense minister.

             http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i28MvYyqR9sGxc2cZ4U1QlPPQFLA?docId=CNG.93c1b5af9b6cb71a17bf389563809eb2.a1
             Israel hails deadly blast in Iran

             (AFP) - 1 hour ago 

             JERUSALEM - Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak on Sunday hailed
             the deadly munitions blast at a base of Iran's elite
             Revolutionary Guards and hoped for more such incidents.

             "I don't know the extent of the explosion," he told military
             radio, asked about the incident. "But it would be desirable if
             they multiply."

             Iran said earlier that a senior general who pioneered an
             artillery and missile unit was among the 17 Guards reported
             killed in Saturday's blast at Bid Ganeh, near the town of Malard
             on the western outskirts of Tehran.

             Guards spokesman commander Ramezan Sharif said the blast, which
             Iran said was an accident, occurred as "ammunition was taken out
             of the depot and was being moved outside toward the appropriate
             site."

             Set up after the 1979 Islamic revolution to defend Iran, the
             Guards are in charge of the Islamic republic's missile
             programme, including Shahab-3 missiles with a range of 2,000
             kilometres (1,200 miles) capable of hitting Israel.

             Saturday's blast came amid international condemnation of Iran
             since the release of a new UN nuclear watchdog report accusing
             Tehran of working towards the development of nuclear warheads to
             fit inside its medium-range missiles.

             Israeli officials have in past weeks warned Iran of the
             possibility of military strikes against its nuclear sites.

             Ben West
             Tactical Analyst
             STRATFOR
             512-744-4300
             ext. 4340

             --

             Chris Farnham
             Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
             Australia Mobile: 0423372241
             Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
             www.stratfor.com

             --
             Sean Noonan
             Tactical Analyst
             STRATFOR
             T: +1 512-279-9479 | M: +1 512-758-5967
             www.STRATFOR.com

             --
             Sean Noonan
             Tactical Analyst
             STRATFOR
             T: +1 512-279-9479 | M: +1 512-758-5967
             www.STRATFOR.com

             --
             Sean Noonan
             Tactical Analyst
             STRATFOR
             T: +1 512-279-9479 | M: +1 512-758-5967
             www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 -
 Abe Selig
 Officer, Operations Center
 STRATFOR
 T: 512.279.9489 | M: 512.574.3846
 www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-14 15:40:05</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/185945_re-alpha-s3-g3-israel-iran-barak-hails-munitions-blast-in.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>187311</id>
    <title>Re: [Eurasia] SPAIN/ECON - Spain's likely new gov't seeks
	crisis	manager for economy
</title>
    <description>   patsy and technocrats are two different things (and yes there can be
   overlap)

   a patsy is someone to take the fall

   a technocrat is to get shit done that needs to be done

   but yes

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Michael Wilson" &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, November 10, 2011 10:17:21 AM
   Subject: Re: [Eurasia] SPAIN/ECON - Spain's likely new gov't seeks
   crisis        manager for economy

   to be less flippant

   EU officials know how unpopular what they have to do is. The public does
   not want to do what is needed to be done. The elites can't do what the
   public wants them to do though, because that threatens their interests

   So they look for technocrats (or as Peter calls them patsy's) to implement
   what needs to be done so that hopefully they can avoid some of the blame

   On 11/10/11 9:39 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

     Seems like we are seeing the rise of the technocrats

     On 11/10/11 9:02 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

           Spain's likely new gov't seeks crisis manager for economy

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/10/spain-election-ministers-idUSLDE7A905V20111110

       MADRID Nov 10 (Reuters) - Centre-right opposition leader Mariano
       Rajoy, poised to win Spain's Nov. 20 parliamentary election, is
       seeking an internationally respected figure for economy minister to
       win over nervous investors in the deepening euro zone crisis.

       Analysts and insiders from Rajoy's People's Party (PP) say he wants a
       manager with clout and experience, but not necessarily someone from
       within the party.

       The PP could separate the Economy Ministry into two, with one for
       economy and one for finance, as it was under the last centre-right
       government.

       Rajoy, expected to oust the Socialists who have been in power for more
       than seven years, will implement drastic spending cuts and economic
       reforms that could revive production in the medium term but will push
       the economy into recession next year.

       Following are some of the names most frequently mentioned for Economy
       Minister by political and financial sources:

       Luis de Guindos (51)

       De Guindos is director of the respected Spanish business school
       Instituto de Empresa and an independent board member of the energy
       group Endesa. He is said to speak with Rajoy frequently.

       He served as economy secretary -- a high-ranking position reporting to
       the Economy Minister -- under the previous conservative Prime Minister
       Jose Maria Aznar from 2002 to 2004. He also held other key positions
       within the ministry from 1996.

       De Guindos was chief executive of Lehman Brothers Spain and Portugal
       2006-2008, and later responsible for the financial division of
       PriceWaterhouseCoopers.

       Cristobal Montoro (61)

       Montoro heads the People's Party economic team and acts as a kind of
       shadow economy minister. He sits in the European Parliament for the
       PP, as well as in the lower house of parliament in Spain.

       Montoro was economy secretary, also under Aznar, from 1996 to 2000 and
       then finance minister from 2000 to 2004.

       Some political pundits are doubtful Montoro has the international
       clout to make the position of economy minister in the current climate,
       though his place close to Rajoy is likely to guarantee some important
       post within the economic team.

       Josep Pique (56)

       A Catalan businessman and politician, Josep Pique is chairman of the
       Spanish airline Vueling and president of the influential
       Barcelona-based think tank Circulo de Economia.

       He served in the PP government from 1996 to 2003 first as industry
       minister, then government spokesman and later foreign minister and
       minister of science.

       From 2003 to 2007, Pique headed the PP in Catalonia, a region where
       the party has traditionally been weak.

       Fernando Becker (56)

       Head of corporate resources at the Spanish energy group Iberdrola,
       Becker holds a doctorate in economics.

       He was previously the president of the state lender, the Official
       Credit Institute, under the Aznar government and up until 1999.

       He also served as an economics advisor to the regional government of
       Castilla y Leon.

       Becker is said to be close to the conservative think tank FAES, which
       is presided over by Aznar. And he attended college with Rajoy.

       Francisco Gonzalez (67)

       Gonzalez has been chairman and chief executive of Spain's second
       largest bank BBVA since 2000. He is the vice-chairman of the Institute
       of International Finance (IIF) and sits on the International advisory
       committee of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

       Although Gonzalez speaks frequently with Rajoy and has
       well-established ties to the PP, he is not seen as likely to jump at a
       political position.

        

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +216 22 73 23 19
 www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-10 17:54:32</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-04-01 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/187311_re-eurasia-spain-econ-spain-s-likely-new-gov-t-seeks-crisis.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>peter.zeihan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>188257</id>
    <title>[alpha] TrapWire on Shots fired at White House
</title>
    <description>   DC Metro ran traces through TrapWire soon as the incident happened.
   National Park Police have approached us for a proposal to cover all of the
   Mall area -- in addition to the Fed and Military sites already covered.
   Our network there is growing almost daily.

    

   ----------------------------------------------------------

   A bullet hit an exterior window of the White House but was stopped by
   ballistic glass, and the Secret Service was investigating Wednesday
   whether the incident is connected to shots fired nearby last week.
   An additional round of ammunition was found on the White House exterior.
   The bullets were found Tuesday morning.

   http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/worldview/how-did-someone-fire-a-shot-at-the-white-house/article2237847/
</description>
    <date>2011-11-16 21:23:38</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/188257_-alpha-trapwire-on-shots-fired-at-white-house-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>191102</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA
	-	Turkey	mobilizing	forces	for	Syria? - ME1461
</title>
    <description>   He's right about there being relevant nearby bases. Omar has the details
   on those. Question is if we can get any perspective into the extent and
   nature of preparations at those bases, if the key units at these bases
   have been reinforced and if additional units have been dispatched to
   forward positions along the border.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Tue, 22 Nov 2011 16:42:20 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA - Turkey mobilizing forces for
   Syria? - ME1461
   can he specify in more detail what military presence is actually at the
   border (even if meant more for posturing?)

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Emre Dogru" &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, November 22, 2011 4:35:07 PM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA -
   Turkey        mobilizing        forces        for        Syria? - ME1461

   Here is what I talked with Faruk:
   He says he just got back from an official meeting in Ankara. He didn't
   hear of such a deployment. He says Turkey has no plan to intervene in
   Syria in a specific time-frame or before a deadline. But Turkey has a
   very-well developed contingency plan that may be implemented should the
   need arise according to the events that take place in Syria. The plan was
   elaborated back in March 2011, and revised in June 2011. Turkey's allies,
   including the US, are aware of this plan. The plan includes creating a
   buffer-zone in northern Syria (I sent specifics of this plan in another
   insight before - pasted below) only if the unrest or civil war in Syria 1)
   Creates a massive refugee crisis 2) Threatens the border security 3)
   Provides PKK with an opportunity to attack on Turkey more easily. But
   Turkey does not have any intention to take an action on Syria unless these
   conditions occur. Turkey will not act without US/NATO involvement anyway.
   That said, it's very normal to constantly revise the military preparations
   near the border. Land forces commander's visit can be considered in this
   context. Also, keep in mind that Turkish pilgrims were attacked in Syria
   the other day. Turkey may conduct a small-scale exercise near the border
   to remind Syria of possible consequences. But Turkey does not need to send
   500 tanks to the border or another type of military mobilization to do
   this. There are military bases in Gaziantep, Mardin and Antakya that have
   enough capacity to take necessary measures, unless an all-out war breaks
   out. Turkey has no intention to go war with Syria, unless Syria wages war
   on Turkey. But it has all plans and resources ready.
   --- earlier insight on bufferzone---
   Buffer-zone plan is not new. This was being elaborated by Ankara since
   March 2011. Current increase in media reports on this issue is
   psychological warfare against Assad. The Turkish army does not have a
   psychical preparation (deployment of troops, tanks etc.) near the border
   at the moment. Turkey needs to have a "light" UNSC resolution and be able
   to interpret it for its own purposes. But the important thing here is to
   have unwavering US/European/Arab League support, even if the Russians and
   Chinese do not actively support.

   Turkey needs to contain and control the PKK activity. That's Turkey's main
   concern. The second one is to stop an immigration wave if/when the civil
   war breaks out. However, unlike the initial discussions between the US and
   Turkey that a buffer-zone should cover as much as 100 kilometers deep
   inside Syrian borders, Turkey is able to do this five kilometers at most,
   but mainly one kilometer. Depending on the part of the border, five, one
   and zero kilometers deep buffer-zone will serve its purpose. This will
   also increase Turkey's intelligence capabilities 10-20 kilometers deep in
   Syria.

   Syria owns a faction within PKK, but Assad is not actively encouraging
   them to attack on Turkey for the moment.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "George Friedman" &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, November 23, 2011 12:15:15 AM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA - Turkey
   mobilizing        forces        for        Syria? - ME1461

   And also remember that he may be passing on rumors or whatever. But if the
   turkish army is mobilizing it will be known and we can find out.

   I just want people remembering that we have a lot of sources in a lot of
   places. Going to os is good but not enough.
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Tue, 22 Nov 2011 16:13:01 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA - Turkey mobilizing forces for
   Syria? - ME1461
   Emre's on it. 

   keep in mind the source on this - Iranian mil source that may be trying to
   spread rumors and get Turkey to react.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "George Friedman" &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, November 22, 2011 4:02:07 PM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA - Turkey mobilizing forces
   for        Syria? - ME1461

   500 tanks is about two divisions. They would normally be supported by
   about 20,000 troops. Assume that the 2000 is 20000 and what he is saying
   is a multidivisional invasion of syria. Mobilizing a deploying a force
   that big can't be hidden. It is certainly enough to take northern syria.
   But as I said, it would be a new chapter in turkish history and if they do
   it, it won't be because they want democracy in turkey.

   See if there is any confirmation on this. Go to emre on this.
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Colby Martin &lt;colby.martin@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Tue, 22 Nov 2011 15:55:58 -0600 (CST)
   To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA - Turkey mobilizing forces for
   Syria? - ME1461
   two points.  500 tanks (even if they aren't all actually tanks) is A LOT. 
   2000 SF is not a lot, and to argue that small a force could hold the
   Syrian coast is laughable.  At most it is our assessment they could
   possibly pester the coast while the real invasion comes from Turkey, but
   keep in mind there are already 36,000 Turkish troops already in Cyprus. 

   On 11/22/11 3:51 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     Is there anything related to this in OS so far besides the Turkish army
     chief's visit to the border?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: watchofficer@stratfor.com
     Sent: Tuesday, November 22, 2011 2:54:05 PM
     Subject: INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA - Turkey mobilizing forces for Syria? -
     ME1461

     SOURCE: ME1461
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Iranian military attache in lebanon
     PUBLICATION: yes
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: C
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: ??
     SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
     SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

     ** Are there any signs of this happening??

     In the course of talking about the Iranian missile base explosion, the
     source said that the Turks have readied 500 tanks for a limited invasion
     of northern Syria. He also said  that the Turks flew to northern Cyprus
     a special force contingent of 2,000 for occupying a 20kms stretch of the
     Syrian coast.

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-22 23:47:26</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/191102_re-alpha-insight-turkey-syria-turkey-mobilizing-forces-for.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>196446</id>
    <title>[OS] INDIA -Earthquake recorded off India's Nicobar Islands
</title>
    <description>   Earthquake recorded off India's Nicobar Islands 11/30/11

   http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/earthquake-recorded-off-indias-nicobar-islands/

   LONDON, Nov 30 (Reuters) - A 5.8 magnitude earthquake, at a depth of one
   kilometre, was recorded off India's Nicobar Islands at 19.42 GMT on
   Wednesday, the U.S. Geological Survey reported. (Reporting by Andrew
   Heavens)

 --
 Anthony Sung
 ADP
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4076 | F: +1 512 744 4105
 www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-30 21:21:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-13 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/196446_-os-india-earthquake-recorded-off-india-s-nicobar-islands-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>os@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anthony.sung@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:os@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>199603</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - PAKISTAN - Sequence of events in NATO attack
 -	PK001
</title>
    <description>   What does 'embrace shahadat' mean?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Kamran Bokhari" &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Friday, 2 December, 2011 12:41:57 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - PAKISTAN - Sequence of events in NATO attack
   -        PK001

   From colonel source at army headquarters

                     CHRONOLOGY OF EVENTS-26 November 2011

   A*          15-30 minutes after midnight 2-3 helicopters appeared and
   started engaging Volcano Post ; communication broke down

   A*          Boulder Post engaged helicopters with 12.7 mm Anti Aircraft
   guns and all available weapons

   A*          Helicopters engaged Boulder post and communication with both
   the posts broke down

   A*          Because the communication had broken down, Company Commander
   Major Mujahid moved from Company headquarters to assess the situation and
   embraced shahadat as he reached  the Boulder Post

   A*          All channels (Coordination Mechanism) activated

   A*          Confirmation received that helicopters had pulled back by
   about 0105 hours

   A*          Since both the posts (Volcano and Boulder) were out of
   communication, commanding officer ordered neighbouring companyA*s company
   commander (Major Mustafa) to reinforce Boulder Post

   A*          This reinforcement got pinned down due to re-engagement by
   helicopters

   A*          26 air burst rounds of artillery were fired by own troops
   against the helicopters

   A*          Engagement from both sides lasted, intermittently till
   approximately 0215 hours

   A*          The magnitude of the incident only transpired at day break

   A*          Corps Commander landed at the posts early morning

    

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   Australia Mobile: 0423372241
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-12-02 04:52:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 23:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/199603_re-alpha-insight-pakistan-sequence-of-events-in-nato-attack.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>201031</id>
    <title></title>
    <description>   Ok, that makes sense

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Dec 5, 2011, at 9:43 PM, "George Friedman"
   &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt; wrote:

     It does check out with what I heard in caracas but that increases the
     chance its gossip.

     If this is a source you suspect may have value, you have to take control
     od him. Control means financial, sexual or psychological control to the
     point where he would reveal his sourcing and be tasked. This is
     difficult to do when you are known to be affiliated with an intelligence
     organization. The decision on approach would not come from you but from
     your handler. This is because you're position is too close to the source
     and your judgment by definition suspect. Each meeting would be planned
     between you and your handler and each meeting would have a specific goal
     not built around discussing the topic of interest which would ideally be
     hidden but in analyzing him personally and moving toward control.
     The justification for the op would be specific classes of information
     and on gaining control the first step would be determining his access.
     If he failed the test contact would be terminated.

     the problem of analysts in the field is that they tend to want to
     discuss the topic, which raises the targets awareness, rather than focus
     on establishing the control relationship.

     So from a professional point of view this target knows your affiliation,
     understands your interests and you have not established any control
     which is defined as a high confidence in his obedience.

     So washington is filled with gossip with people whose access is not
     established.

     Just laying this out so you understand the core challenge. To be
     effective your goal is the person and not the subject. Otherwise its
     gossip which is information that you cannot definitively confirm.

     This is intended to start our conversation on your next phase.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Reva Bhalla &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: Mon, 5 Dec 2011 20:30:10 -0600 (CST)
     To: &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;
     Subject: Re: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power
     struggle, etc. - VZ302
     Yes, I have much to learn and I may be just an analyst, but i'm not 100%
     incapable of evaluating a source i've known for a while.  I've listened
     to waht you've told me about reading a source (the Turk with the
     twitch.) I figured out what this source's twitch is in reading his
     eyes.  I've gotten much better in evaluating what info to take more
     seriously and what info to disregard. The info i included below is what
     I would consider more seriously and seems to check out with what we've
     seen elsewhere.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "George Friedman" &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;
     To: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Monday, December 5, 2011 9:26:02 PM
     Subject: Fw: Fwd: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power
     struggle, etc. - VZ302

     The problem with analyst sources is they are unqualified. This means
     that we don't have clarity on their sources and therefore can't evaluate
     accuracy. This could be valuable humint or pure rumint.

     One of the reasons I want you to execute missions is to learn how to
     evaluate sources. This is a very difficult art but one you must learn.

     The gut is to be trusted only after its well trained.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Reva Bhalla &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: Mon, 5 Dec 2011 20:14:51 -0600 (CST)
     To: George Friedman&lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Fwd: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power
     struggle, etc. - VZ302

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: watchofficer@statfor.com
     Sent: Monday, December 5, 2011 9:13:24 PM
     Subject: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power
     struggle, etc. - VZ302

     SOURCE: VZ302
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: well-connected VZ source working with Israel
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: B - source is anti-Chavez, but I've gotten better at
     reading him over the years to tell when he's feeding me shit and when
     he's giving useful info - his info on the VZ regime has checked out, but
     i tend to be more skeptical on iran-related info
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
     SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha, scrub source info and also make sure rest of
     latam team sees this
     SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

     Chavez's health - the tumor started as a growth close to the prostate,
     it spread to the colon, which is what led to a lot of confusion in the
     OS about the treatment of prostate v. colon cancer  in hormonal v.
     chemotherapy. A reliable source on the medical has explained that the
     cancer has spread to the lymph nodes and into the bone marrow up to the
     spine, ie. very serious.

     Chavez temporarily stopped the chemo in order to make an appearance at
     the recent CELAC meeting.  The medical team is made up of both Russian
     and Cuban doctors. Both sides are clashing.  THe Russian team blamed the
     Cubans for an improper surgery the first time in trying to remove the
     tumor. The second surgery over the summer was basically the Russian team
     trying to clean up the Cuban team's mistakes. The Russians complain that
     the Cubans dont have the right imagery treatment to properly treat
     Chavez.  The Cuban medical diagnosis is 2 years. The Russian medical
     diagnosis, due to improper medical equipment, is less than one year. The
     source on the medical team complains that Chavez is a very 'bad
     patient.' He doesn't listen to his doctors, he ceases treatment when he
     has to make a public appearance. Now the Russian and the Chinese doctors
     are going at it because Chavez sought hte advice of a Chinese doctor
     that advocates more natural treatments and the Russians are saying this
     is horse shit treatment. only chavez can get the most politicized
     medical team in the world.
     (note - if you see medical reports on Chavez's health in WSJ or Brazil's
     Veja magazine, it's probably coming from this source.)

     Who replaces Chavez?
     I would keep my eye on FM Nicolas Maduro. Maduro is loyal as a dog to
     Chavez. (the source knows Maduro personally, from the days that Maduro
     was a driver of the metro bus.)  At the same time, maduro is seen as the
     most pragmatic in the regime.  If Chavez's health deteriorates
     significantly before the scheduled Oct 2012 elections, expect him to
     proclaim Maduro as his successor in one way or another. You can already
     see him propping up Maduro in a lot of ways. This is less risky than
     Chavez going through with elections, winning, suddenly dying and then a
     power struggle among the Chavistas breaking out. It will be much harder
     in this latter scenario for Maduro to assert himself against rival
     Chavistas like Diosdado Cabello, Rafiel Ramirez, etc.

     Remember that there are four key players propping up the regime - China,
     Cuba, Russia, Iran. All four are split on how to manage a post-Chavez
     regime. China and Russia are more insulated, as they've tried to get
     away from Chavez the personality, to preserving Chavismo, the regime.
     Russia has set up a specific task force (note the Patrushev visits) to
     help manage the post-chavez transition. Both China and Russia are
     backing Maduro as their preferred successor. Cuba, however, is in
     trouble.  They can't count on a Maduro to continue subsidizing them with
     thousands of barrels of oil every day. No one is really paying attention
     to Cuba - they can;t count on the Europeans for investment. Without VZ,
     they're screwed. The Cubans so far have been backing Adan Chavez
     (Chavez's brother) as the preferred candidate, but he doesnt have the
     same following. Cuba may shift to backing Maduro. (At this point in the
     convo, i brought up the possibility of Cuba, having the best intel on
     VZ, using that intel to leverage with the US and open up its options -
     he agreed that's what the Castros will do to survive but he hasnt seen
     serious signs of this.. yet.)

     Maduro is seen as more of a Lula candidate. He has a following, he has
     charisma, but he's also a balancer. He's the kind of guy that would open
     up to the US and keep tight with everyone else, but that still makes
     Iran nervous.  The source seems to think that Obama in his second term
     would open up to Maduro (and this is something that he is actively
     working on.)

     The opposition -
     Venezuela is divided into 5 different strata - A, B, C, D, E - A ++ is
     the elite of the elite, the boli-bourgeoisie that that Chavez has very
     successfully vilified. Chavez doesn't give a shit about these guys. His
     base is the D and E.
     Capriles Radonski, Leopoldo Lopez, Maria Corina Machado are all the A++
     - way too elitist. They can't win over the chavista vote.
     The only one that has a real chance is Pablo Perez - Zulia governor -
     he's actually seen as one of the people.  The conversation between him
     adn the Castros is jsut starting up. (i asked if Perez is talking to
     Maduro yet - he says not yet.)

     guess who has been most cooperative with us lately?   The military
     elite.  These guys have been living the good life. They love women...
     lots of women. THey love booze. They love bora bora. They are easy to
     bribe. They dont care about chavez. they care about maintaining their
     current lifestyles. We've seen a lot of these military elite reach out
     to us lately, trying to insulate themselves in a post-Chavez scenario.

     This is why you'll see Chavez investing a lot of time and money in
     developing the militia. They're his best insurance policy. The more of a
     problem the militia can create on the streets, the more the military
     elite will hestiate before acting against him or his potential
     successor.

     The intent of the ley de precios is very simple. The money laundering
     schemes in food, pharmaceuticals, energy parts, etc. etc. have gotten
     worse./ Completely unchecked.  This price controls law is the
     government's way of controlling opposition campaign spending. Very
     straightforward - they have the legal justification to intimidate
     corporations into cutting back their support for the opposition, or
     else, their company is taken over. This will allow the state more
     control of the private sector.

     (side note) - we were talking a bit about a recent PdVSA-Iran joint
     venture. They shifted their main base of operations from Caracas to
     Ankara, though. This has become a trend lately, where a lot of Iran's
     sanctions circumventing oeprations in VZ are quietly being relocated to
     Turkey. Part of Turkey's balancing act with Iran.

     these were the main points. will update with more..little fuzzy from
     wine right now.
</description>
    <date>2011-12-06 03:50:15</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/201031_.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>201547</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power
 struggle, etc. - VZ302
</title>
    <description>   Yes, I have much to learn and I may be just an analyst, but i'm not 100%
   incapable of evaluating a source i've known for a while.  I've listened to
   waht you've told me about reading a source (the Turk with the twitch.) I
   figured out what this source's twitch is in reading his eyes.  I've gotten
   much better in evaluating what info to take more seriously and what info
   to disregard. The info i included below is what I would consider more
   seriously and seems to check out with what we've seen elsewhere.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "George Friedman" &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;
   To: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, December 5, 2011 9:26:02 PM
   Subject: Fw: Fwd: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power
   struggle, etc. - VZ302

   The problem with analyst sources is they are unqualified. This means that
   we don't have clarity on their sources and therefore can't evaluate
   accuracy. This could be valuable humint or pure rumint.

   One of the reasons I want you to execute missions is to learn how to
   evaluate sources. This is a very difficult art but one you must learn.

   The gut is to be trusted only after its well trained.
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Mon, 5 Dec 2011 20:14:51 -0600 (CST)
   To: George Friedman&lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Fwd: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power
   struggle, etc. - VZ302

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: watchofficer@statfor.com
   Sent: Monday, December 5, 2011 9:13:24 PM
   Subject: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power struggle,
   etc. - VZ302

   SOURCE: VZ302
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: well-connected VZ source working with Israel
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B - source is anti-Chavez, but I've gotten better at
   reading him over the years to tell when he's feeding me shit and when he's
   giving useful info - his info on the VZ regime has checked out, but i tend
   to be more skeptical on iran-related info
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha, scrub source info and also make sure rest of
   latam team sees this
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

   Chavez's health - the tumor started as a growth close to the prostate, it
   spread to the colon, which is what led to a lot of confusion in the OS
   about the treatment of prostate v. colon cancer  in hormonal v.
   chemotherapy. A reliable source on the medical has explained that the
   cancer has spread to the lymph nodes and into the bone marrow up to the
   spine, ie. very serious.

   Chavez temporarily stopped the chemo in order to make an appearance at the
   recent CELAC meeting.  The medical team is made up of both Russian and
   Cuban doctors. Both sides are clashing.  THe Russian team blamed the
   Cubans for an improper surgery the first time in trying to remove the
   tumor. The second surgery over the summer was basically the Russian team
   trying to clean up the Cuban team's mistakes. The Russians complain that
   the Cubans dont have the right imagery treatment to properly treat
   Chavez.  The Cuban medical diagnosis is 2 years. The Russian medical
   diagnosis, due to improper medical equipment, is less than one year. The
   source on the medical team complains that Chavez is a very 'bad patient.'
   He doesn't listen to his doctors, he ceases treatment when he has to make
   a public appearance. Now the Russian and the Chinese doctors are going at
   it because Chavez sought hte advice of a Chinese doctor that advocates
   more natural treatments and the Russians are saying this is horse shit
   treatment. only chavez can get the most politicized medical team in the
   world.
   (note - if you see medical reports on Chavez's health in WSJ or Brazil's
   Veja magazine, it's probably coming from this source.)

   Who replaces Chavez?
   I would keep my eye on FM Nicolas Maduro. Maduro is loyal as a dog to
   Chavez. (the source knows Maduro personally, from the days that Maduro was
   a driver of the metro bus.)  At the same time, maduro is seen as the most
   pragmatic in the regime.  If Chavez's health deteriorates significantly
   before the scheduled Oct 2012 elections, expect him to proclaim Maduro as
   his successor in one way or another. You can already see him propping up
   Maduro in a lot of ways. This is less risky than Chavez going through with
   elections, winning, suddenly dying and then a power struggle among the
   Chavistas breaking out. It will be much harder in this latter scenario for
   Maduro to assert himself against rival Chavistas like Diosdado Cabello,
   Rafiel Ramirez, etc.

   Remember that there are four key players propping up the regime - China,
   Cuba, Russia, Iran. All four are split on how to manage a post-Chavez
   regime. China and Russia are more insulated, as they've tried to get away
   from Chavez the personality, to preserving Chavismo, the regime. Russia
   has set up a specific task force (note the Patrushev visits) to help
   manage the post-chavez transition. Both China and Russia are backing
   Maduro as their preferred successor. Cuba, however, is in trouble.  They
   can't count on a Maduro to continue subsidizing them with thousands of
   barrels of oil every day. No one is really paying attention to Cuba - they
   can;t count on the Europeans for investment. Without VZ, they're screwed.
   The Cubans so far have been backing Adan Chavez (Chavez's brother) as the
   preferred candidate, but he doesnt have the same following. Cuba may shift
   to backing Maduro. (At this point in the convo, i brought up the
   possibility of Cuba, having the best intel on VZ, using that intel to
   leverage with the US and open up its options - he agreed that's what the
   Castros will do to survive but he hasnt seen serious signs of this.. yet.)

   Maduro is seen as more of a Lula candidate. He has a following, he has
   charisma, but he's also a balancer. He's the kind of guy that would open
   up to the US and keep tight with everyone else, but that still makes Iran
   nervous.  The source seems to think that Obama in his second term would
   open up to Maduro (and this is something that he is actively working on.)

   The opposition -
   Venezuela is divided into 5 different strata - A, B, C, D, E - A ++ is the
   elite of the elite, the boli-bourgeoisie that that Chavez has very
   successfully vilified. Chavez doesn't give a shit about these guys. His
   base is the D and E.
   Capriles Radonski, Leopoldo Lopez, Maria Corina Machado are all the A++ -
   way too elitist. They can't win over the chavista vote.
   The only one that has a real chance is Pablo Perez - Zulia governor - he's
   actually seen as one of the people.  The conversation between him adn the
   Castros is jsut starting up. (i asked if Perez is talking to Maduro yet -
   he says not yet.)

   guess who has been most cooperative with us lately?   The military elite. 
   These guys have been living the good life. They love women... lots of
   women. THey love booze. They love bora bora. They are easy to bribe. They
   dont care about chavez. they care about maintaining their current
   lifestyles. We've seen a lot of these military elite reach out to us
   lately, trying to insulate themselves in a post-Chavez scenario.

   This is why you'll see Chavez investing a lot of time and money in
   developing the militia. They're his best insurance policy. The more of a
   problem the militia can create on the streets, the more the military elite
   will hestiate before acting against him or his potential successor.

   The intent of the ley de precios is very simple. The money laundering
   schemes in food, pharmaceuticals, energy parts, etc. etc. have gotten
   worse./ Completely unchecked.  This price controls law is the government's
   way of controlling opposition campaign spending. Very straightforward -
   they have the legal justification to intimidate corporations into cutting
   back their support for the opposition, or else, their company is taken
   over. This will allow the state more control of the private sector.

   (side note) - we were talking a bit about a recent PdVSA-Iran joint
   venture. They shifted their main base of operations from Caracas to
   Ankara, though. This has become a trend lately, where a lot of Iran's
   sanctions circumventing oeprations in VZ are quietly being relocated to
   Turkey. Part of Turkey's balancing act with Iran.

   these were the main points. will update with more..little fuzzy from wine
   right now.
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/201547_re-insight-venezuela-update-on-chavez-s-health-power.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>202526</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power struggle, etc. - VZ302
</title>
    <description>   It does check out with what I heard in caracas but that increases the
   chance its gossip.

   If this is a source you suspect may have value, you have to take control
   od him. Control means financial, sexual or psychological control to the
   point where he would reveal his sourcing and be tasked. This is difficult
   to do when you are known to be affiliated with an intelligence
   organization. The decision on approach would not come from you but from
   your handler. This is because you're position is too close to the source
   and your judgment by definition suspect. Each meeting would be planned
   between you and your handler and each meeting would have a specific goal
   not built around discussing the topic of interest which would ideally be
   hidden but in analyzing him personally and moving toward control.
   The justification for the op would be specific classes of information and
   on gaining control the first step would be determining his access. If he
   failed the test contact would be terminated.

   the problem of analysts in the field is that they tend to want to discuss
   the topic, which raises the targets awareness, rather than focus on
   establishing the control relationship.

   So from a professional point of view this target knows your affiliation,
   understands your interests and you have not established any control which
   is defined as a high confidence in his obedience.

   So washington is filled with gossip with people whose access is not
   established.

   Just laying this out so you understand the core challenge. To be effective
   your goal is the person and not the subject. Otherwise its gossip which is
   information that you cannot definitively confirm.

   This is intended to start our conversation on your next phase.
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Mon, 5 Dec 2011 20:30:10 -0600 (CST)
   To: &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power
   struggle, etc. - VZ302
   Yes, I have much to learn and I may be just an analyst, but i'm not 100%
   incapable of evaluating a source i've known for a while.  I've listened to
   waht you've told me about reading a source (the Turk with the twitch.) I
   figured out what this source's twitch is in reading his eyes.  I've gotten
   much better in evaluating what info to take more seriously and what info
   to disregard. The info i included below is what I would consider more
   seriously and seems to check out with what we've seen elsewhere.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "George Friedman" &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;
   To: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, December 5, 2011 9:26:02 PM
   Subject: Fw: Fwd: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power
   struggle, etc. - VZ302

   The problem with analyst sources is they are unqualified. This means that
   we don't have clarity on their sources and therefore can't evaluate
   accuracy. This could be valuable humint or pure rumint.

   One of the reasons I want you to execute missions is to learn how to
   evaluate sources. This is a very difficult art but one you must learn.

   The gut is to be trusted only after its well trained.
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Mon, 5 Dec 2011 20:14:51 -0600 (CST)
   To: George Friedman&lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Fwd: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power
   struggle, etc. - VZ302

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: watchofficer@statfor.com
   Sent: Monday, December 5, 2011 9:13:24 PM
   Subject: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power struggle,
   etc. - VZ302

   SOURCE: VZ302
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: well-connected VZ source working with Israel
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B - source is anti-Chavez, but I've gotten better at
   reading him over the years to tell when he's feeding me shit and when he's
   giving useful info - his info on the VZ regime has checked out, but i tend
   to be more skeptical on iran-related info
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha, scrub source info and also make sure rest of
   latam team sees this
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

   Chavez's health - the tumor started as a growth close to the prostate, it
   spread to the colon, which is what led to a lot of confusion in the OS
   about the treatment of prostate v. colon cancer  in hormonal v.
   chemotherapy. A reliable source on the medical has explained that the
   cancer has spread to the lymph nodes and into the bone marrow up to the
   spine, ie. very serious.

   Chavez temporarily stopped the chemo in order to make an appearance at the
   recent CELAC meeting.  The medical team is made up of both Russian and
   Cuban doctors. Both sides are clashing.  THe Russian team blamed the
   Cubans for an improper surgery the first time in trying to remove the
   tumor. The second surgery over the summer was basically the Russian team
   trying to clean up the Cuban team's mistakes. The Russians complain that
   the Cubans dont have the right imagery treatment to properly treat
   Chavez.  The Cuban medical diagnosis is 2 years. The Russian medical
   diagnosis, due to improper medical equipment, is less than one year. The
   source on the medical team complains that Chavez is a very 'bad patient.'
   He doesn't listen to his doctors, he ceases treatment when he has to make
   a public appearance. Now the Russian and the Chinese doctors are going at
   it because Chavez sought hte advice of a Chinese doctor that advocates
   more natural treatments and the Russians are saying this is horse shit
   treatment. only chavez can get the most politicized medical team in the
   world.
   (note - if you see medical reports on Chavez's health in WSJ or Brazil's
   Veja magazine, it's probably coming from this source.)

   Who replaces Chavez?
   I would keep my eye on FM Nicolas Maduro. Maduro is loyal as a dog to
   Chavez. (the source knows Maduro personally, from the days that Maduro was
   a driver of the metro bus.)  At the same time, maduro is seen as the most
   pragmatic in the regime.  If Chavez's health deteriorates significantly
   before the scheduled Oct 2012 elections, expect him to proclaim Maduro as
   his successor in one way or another. You can already see him propping up
   Maduro in a lot of ways. This is less risky than Chavez going through with
   elections, winning, suddenly dying and then a power struggle among the
   Chavistas breaking out. It will be much harder in this latter scenario for
   Maduro to assert himself against rival Chavistas like Diosdado Cabello,
   Rafiel Ramirez, etc.

   Remember that there are four key players propping up the regime - China,
   Cuba, Russia, Iran. All four are split on how to manage a post-Chavez
   regime. China and Russia are more insulated, as they've tried to get away
   from Chavez the personality, to preserving Chavismo, the regime. Russia
   has set up a specific task force (note the Patrushev visits) to help
   manage the post-chavez transition. Both China and Russia are backing
   Maduro as their preferred successor. Cuba, however, is in trouble.  They
   can't count on a Maduro to continue subsidizing them with thousands of
   barrels of oil every day. No one is really paying attention to Cuba - they
   can;t count on the Europeans for investment. Without VZ, they're screwed.
   The Cubans so far have been backing Adan Chavez (Chavez's brother) as the
   preferred candidate, but he doesnt have the same following. Cuba may shift
   to backing Maduro. (At this point in the convo, i brought up the
   possibility of Cuba, having the best intel on VZ, using that intel to
   leverage with the US and open up its options - he agreed that's what the
   Castros will do to survive but he hasnt seen serious signs of this.. yet.)

   Maduro is seen as more of a Lula candidate. He has a following, he has
   charisma, but he's also a balancer. He's the kind of guy that would open
   up to the US and keep tight with everyone else, but that still makes Iran
   nervous.  The source seems to think that Obama in his second term would
   open up to Maduro (and this is something that he is actively working on.)

   The opposition -
   Venezuela is divided into 5 different strata - A, B, C, D, E - A ++ is the
   elite of the elite, the boli-bourgeoisie that that Chavez has very
   successfully vilified. Chavez doesn't give a shit about these guys. His
   base is the D and E.
   Capriles Radonski, Leopoldo Lopez, Maria Corina Machado are all the A++ -
   way too elitist. They can't win over the chavista vote.
   The only one that has a real chance is Pablo Perez - Zulia governor - he's
   actually seen as one of the people.  The conversation between him adn the
   Castros is jsut starting up. (i asked if Perez is talking to Maduro yet -
   he says not yet.)

   guess who has been most cooperative with us lately?   The military elite. 
   These guys have been living the good life. They love women... lots of
   women. THey love booze. They love bora bora. They are easy to bribe. They
   dont care about chavez. they care about maintaining their current
   lifestyles. We've seen a lot of these military elite reach out to us
   lately, trying to insulate themselves in a post-Chavez scenario.

   This is why you'll see Chavez investing a lot of time and money in
   developing the militia. They're his best insurance policy. The more of a
   problem the militia can create on the streets, the more the military elite
   will hestiate before acting against him or his potential successor.

   The intent of the ley de precios is very simple. The money laundering
   schemes in food, pharmaceuticals, energy parts, etc. etc. have gotten
   worse./ Completely unchecked.  This price controls law is the government's
   way of controlling opposition campaign spending. Very straightforward -
   they have the legal justification to intimidate corporations into cutting
   back their support for the opposition, or else, their company is taken
   over. This will allow the state more control of the private sector.

   (side note) - we were talking a bit about a recent PdVSA-Iran joint
   venture. They shifted their main base of operations from Caracas to
   Ankara, though. This has become a trend lately, where a lot of Iran's
   sanctions circumventing oeprations in VZ are quietly being relocated to
   Turkey. Part of Turkey's balancing act with Iran.

   these were the main points. will update with more..little fuzzy from wine
   right now.
</description>
    <date>2011-12-06 03:43:19</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/202526_re-insight-venezuela-update-on-chavez-s-health-power.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>204278</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT - MYANMAR - political struggles - via CN65
</title>
    <description>   CN65 has a Burmese source that was educated at LSE and was until recently
   working in Beijing as trade and investment adviser for a well connected
   firm there.  He is now back in Myanmar.  CN65 sent him our latest Myanmar
   piece and his response is below.

   SOURCE: via CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes, but without attribution (please speak with me first)
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: A
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Speak with me before any publication
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

         It covers all the main bits and it is exactly more or less what
         everyone feels.
         What is quite interesting for me (and this is just me) is there is a
         power game being played between the president and the
         vice-president.
         The VP is very close to the Chinese and is generally very unpopular.
         I think all these visits etc is going to marginalise the VP even
         more.
         We shall see.
</description>
    <date>2011-12-07 18:09:22</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/204278_-alpha-insight-myanmar-political-struggles-via-cn65-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>204292</id>
    <title>[OS] ROMANIA/ENERGY - Romania needs shale gas industry
	regulation-NAMR
</title>
    <description>                Romania needs shale gas industry regulation-NAMR

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/02/energy-shale-romania-idUSL5E7N21Z320111202

   LONDON, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Romania needs laws to regulate the creation of a
   shale gas sector which the government aims to develop to offset dwindling
   conventional gas resources, the president of Romania's Mineral Resources
   Agency (NAMR) said.

   Romania could run out of conventional gas reserves as soon as 2022 and
   needs to come up with new resources, according to Romania's national
   statistics office.

   Its shale gas industry is still at an early stage, and legal obstacles
   around environmental and property rights could stall the industry's
   development, NAMR President Alexandru Patruti said.

   Shale gas has a much bigger environmental impact than conventional gas
   exploration because it requires the use of large amounts of chemicals and
   water to extract the gas from layers deep beneath the surface.

   Romania currently has no specific legislation for shale gas exploration
   and uses the same laws that apply to its conventional gas sector.

   "Shale gas exploration implies the use of enormous quantities of chemicals
   and water. These will have to be transported and stored, and I can see
   some legal issues that could occur because of this," said Dorin Cojocaru,
   head of NAMR's oil and gas resource estimation team.

   Regulation is also needed to grant access to pipelines.

   The vast majority of oil and gas pipelines in Europe are owned and
   operated by large integrated energy companies that control production,
   transport and sales.

   A lack regulation that allows third parties access to pipelines owned by
   such integrated companies means that shale gas companies wanting to enter
   the market cannot ship their gas to customers.

   Another problem lies in property rights.

   The boom in U.S. shale gas exploration was aided by its land ownership
   laws which give private land owners the commercial rights to mineral
   resources found on their territory.

   In Europe, these commercial rights are generally held by the state.

   Patruti said that new laws regulating the sector should first be drafted
   at a European level and then adopted by national governments because the
   shale industry was becoming a pan-European industry.

   UNKNOWN RESERVES

   Specific reserve estimations for Romania do not exist yet, and Cojocaru
   said "the figures circulating in the press are based more on the
   implication that if a basin has conventional sources, it must have some
   unconventional ones as well."

   The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said the joint reserves
   for Romanian, Bulgarian and Hungarian shale gas was around 538 billion
   cubic metres (bcm).

   This would be around half of Ukraine's estimated resources and a tenth of
   Poland's, which has Europe's biggest resources.

   A Romanian government delegation recently visited Washington to discuss
   potential U.S. investment into Romania's gas reserves.

   Romania has granted an exploration licence to U.S. energy company Chevron,
   who expects drilling to begin in the second half of 2012, said Thomas
   Holst, country manager for Chevron.

   Other companies that have signed drilling agreements with NAMR and are
   awaiting government approval are Hungary's MOL and Canada's East West
   Petroleum.

   MOL, however, has said that due to the high costs of shale gas exploration
   it would initially prioritise conventional resources.

   "The Romanian blocks have a very good oil and gas potential. According to
   our previous calculations some of these blocks contain an unconventional
   potential," MOL said, but noted it was too early to estimate the size of
   the unconventional reserves.

   Another Canadian company, Sterling Resources, has licences to explore
   conventional gas reserves and will use the same land to look for shale
   gas, the company said.

    
</description>
    <date>2011-12-02 15:54:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 20:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/204292_-os-romania-energy-romania-needs-shale-gas-industry.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>os@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
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      <tag><name>kiss.kornel@upcmail.hu</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>204627</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - military intervention in Syria, post withdrawal status of forces
</title>
    <description>   That makes sense. No one is planning a war.
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Tue, 6 Dec 2011 19:04:13 -0600 (CST)
   To: &lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - military intervention in Syria, post withdrawal
   status of forces
   the NATO forces that conducted the Libya campaign are still in
   replenishment mode. i asked how long it would take to replenish their
   supplies and be ready for another operations, and they said depending on
   the orders they get it could be done in a matter of weeks if needed, but
   they haven't been put on that kind of an urgent schedule yet

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: secure@stratfor.com
   Sent: Tuesday, December 6, 2011 6:57:59 PM
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - military intervention in Syria, post withdrawal
   status of forces

   sorry, just remembering more bits.

   when we were talking about wehther the US would be able to convey the
   message to Iran starting in 2012 that the US isn't going anywhere, they
   stressed that Iran has its eyes all over Ali al Salim air base in Kuwait. 
   Expect to see a pretty signfiicant build=up of aircraft there

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: secure@stratfor.com
   Sent: Tuesday, December 6, 2011 6:55:29 PM
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - military intervention in Syria, post withdrawal
   status of forces

   one more thing, i was talking on the way out to one of the USAF women in
   the office who introduced me to her husband working out of the J8 Force
   Structure office. When we were talking about Iran, she was talking about
   how incredible some of the imagery was coming out of Isfahan post-blast.
   It was pretty clear that she was talking sabotage ops. Those blasts
   weren't all accidental

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: secure@stratfor.com
   Sent: Tuesday, December 6, 2011 6:49:18 PM
   Subject: INSIGHT - military intervention in Syria, post withdrawal status
   of forces

   A few points I wanted to highlight from meetings today --

   I spent most of the afternoon at the Pentagon with the USAF strategic
   studies group - guys who spend their time trying to understand and explain
   to the USAF chief the big picture in areas where they're operating in. It
   was just myself and four other guys at the Lieutenant Colonel level,
   including one French and one British representative who are liaising with
   the US currently out of DC.

   They wanted to grill me on the strategic picture on Syria, so after that I
   got to grill them on the military picture. There is still a very low level
   of understanding of what is actually at stake in Syria, what's the
   strategic interest there, the Turkish role, the Iranian role, etc. After a
   couple hours of talking, they said without saying that SOF teams
   (presumably from US, UK, France, Jordan, Turkey) are already on the ground
   focused on recce missions and training opposition forces. One Air Force
   intel guy (US) said very carefully that there isn't much of a Free Syrian
   Army to train right now anyway, but all the operations being done now are
   being done out of 'prudence.'  The way it was put to me was, 'look at this
   way - the level of information known on Syrian OrBat this month is the
   best it's been since 2001.'  They have been told to prepare contingencies
   and be ready to act within 2-3 months, but they still stress that this is
   all being done as contingency planning, not as a move toward escalation.

   I kept pressing on the question of what these SOF teams would be working
   toward, and whether this would lead to an eventual air camapign to give a
   Syrian rebel group cover. They pretty quickly distanced themselves from
   that idea, saying that the idea 'hypothetically' is to commit guerrilla
   attacks, assassination campaigns, try to break the back of the Alawite
   forces, elicit collapse from within. There wouldn't be a need for air
   cover, and they wouldn't expect these Syrian rebels to be marching in
   columns anyway.

   They emphasized how the air campaign in Syria makes Libya look like a
   piece of cake.  Syrian air defenses are a lot more robust and are much
   denser, esp around Damascus and on the borders with Israel, Turkey. THey
   are most worried about mobile air defenses, particularly the SA-17s that
   they've been getting recently.  It's still a doable mission, it's just not
   an easy one.

   The main base they would use is Cyprus, hands down. Brits and FRench would
   fly out of there. They kept stressing how much is stored at Cyprus and how
   much recce comes out of there. The group was split on whether Turkey would
   be involved, but said Turkey would be pretty critical to the mission to
   base stuff out of there. EVen if Turkey had a poltiical problem with
   Cyprus, they said there is no way the Brits and the FRench wouldn't use
   Cyprus as their main air force base. Air Force Intel guy seems pretty
   convinced that the Turks won't participate (he seemed pretty pissed at
   them.)

   There still seems to be a lot of confusion over what a military
   intervention involving an air campaign would be designed to achieve.   It
   isn't clear cut for them geographically like in Libya, and you can't just
   create an NFZ over Homs, Hama region. This would entail a countrywide SEAD
   campaign lasting the duration of the war.  They dont believe air
   intervention would happen unless there was enough media attention on a
   massacre, like the Ghadafi move against Benghazi. They think the US would
   have a high tolerance for killings as long as it doesn't reach that very
   public stage.  Theyre also questiioning the skills of the Syrian forces
   that are operating the country's air defenses currently and how
   signfiicant the Iranian presence is there. Air Force Intel guy is most
   obsessed with the challenge of taking out Syria's ballistic missile
   capabilities and chem weapons.  With Israel rgiht there and the regime
   facing an existential crisis, he sees that as a major complication to any
   military intervention.

   The post 2011 SOFA with Iraq is still being negotiated. These guys were
   hoping that during Biden's visit that he would announce a deal with
   Maliki, but no such luck.  They are gambling ont he idea that the Iraqis
   remember the iran-iraq war and that maliki is not going to want to face
   the threat of Iranian jets entering Iraqi air space.  THey say that most
   US fighter jets are already out of Iraq and transferred to Kuwait. They
   explained that's the beauty of the air force, the base in Kuwait is just a
   hop, skip and jump away from their bases in Europe, ie. very easy to
   rapidly build up when they need to.  They don't seem concerned about the
   US ability to restructure its forces to send a message to Iran. They gave
   the example of the USS Enterprise that was supposed to be out of
   commission already and got extended another couple years to send to the
   gulf. WHen the US withdraws, we'll have at least 2 carriers in the gulf
   out of centcom and one carrier in the Med out of EuCom. I asked if the
   build-up in Kuwait and the carrier deployments are going to be enough to
   send a message to Iran that the US isn't going anywhere. They responded
   that Iran will get the message if they read the Centcom Web Site. STarting
   Jan. 1 expect them to be publishing all over the place where the US is
   building up.

   Another concern they have about an operation in Syria is whether Iran
   could impede operations out of Balad air force base in Iraq.

   The French representative was of hte opinion that Syria won't be a
   libya-type situation in that France would be gung-ho about going in. Not
   in an election year. The UK rep also emphasized UK reluctance but said
   that the renegotiation of the EU treaty undermines the UK role and that UK
   would be looking for ways to reassert itself on the continent ( i dont
   really think a syria campaign is the way to do that.) UK guy mentioned as
   an aside that the air force base commander at Cyprus got switched out from
   a maintenance guy to a guy that flew Raptors, ie someone that understands
   what it means to start dropping bombs. He joked that it was probably a
   coincidence.

   Prior to that, I had a meeting with an incoming Kuwaiti diplomat (will be
   coded as KU301.) His father was high up in the regime, always by the
   CP's/PM's side. The diplo himself still seems to be getting his feet wet
   in DC (the new team just arrived less than 2 weeks ago,) but he made
   pretty clear that Kuwait was opening the door to allowing US to build up
   forces as needed.  THey already have a significant presence there, and a
   lot of them will be on 90-day rotations. He also said that the SOFA that
   the US signs with Baghdad at the last minute will be worded in such a way
   that even allowing one trainer in the country can be construed to mean
   what the US wants in terms of keeping forces in Iraq. Overall, I didnt get
   the impression from him that Kuwait is freaked out about the US leaving. 
   Everyhting is just getting rearranged.  The Kuwaitis used to be much
   better at managing their relations with Iran, but ever since that spy ring
   story came out  a year ago, it's been bad.  He doesn't think Iran has
   significant covert capabililiteis in the GCC states, though they are
   trying. Iranian activity is mostly propaganda focused. He said that while
   KSA and Bahrain they can deal with it as needed and black out the media,
   Kuwait is a lot more open and thus provides Iran with more oppotunity to
   shape perceptions (he used to work in inforamtion unit in Kuwait.) He says
   there is a sig number of kuwaitis that listen to Iranian media like Al
   Alam especially.

   On the Kuwaiti political scene - the government is having a harder time
   dealing with a more emboldened opposition, but the opposition is still
   extremely divided, esp among the Islamists. The MPs now all have to go
   back to their tribes to rally support for the elections to take place in
   Feb. Oftentimes an MP in Kuwait city will find out that he has lost
   support back home with the tribe, and so a lot of moeny is handed out.The
   govt is hoping that witha  clean slate they can quiet the opposition down.
   A good way of managing the opposition he said is to refer cases to the
   courts, where they can linger forever. good way for the govt to buy time. 
   He doesnt believe the Arab League will take significant action against
   Syria - no one is interested in military intervention. they just say it to
   threaten it.
</description>
    <date>2011-12-07 02:05:46</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 07:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/204627_re-insight-military-intervention-in-syria-post-withdrawal.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>206896</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT - SYRIA - Alawite officer defections? - ME1473 and
	ME1507
</title>
    <description>   ** The coup scenario seems most likely in my opinion. And if these reports
   of Alawite officer defections are true, then that is a potential sign that
   the unity of the army (that matters) is breaking.  There are also rumors
   of the Syrian FM resigning, but a source claims that Bashar refused his
   resignation for fear of exposing the problems he's having within the
   regime.

   SOURCE: ME1473 and ME1507
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: ME1473 is a well-connected Syrian political analyst; 
   ME1507 is a prominent Syrian opposition activist based out of Beirut
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: ME1473 - B-C; ME1507 - C (opposition bias)
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B-C
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

   ME1473 and ME1507 say military defections are a real challenge both to the
   defectors and the regime. Army defectors are instantly killed should they
   be arrested.  One Alawite officer (lieutenant colonel Mohammad Musa)
   defected during the summer and was immediately killed. The two sources
   gave e an identical assessment about regime reaction to defections.
   Defectors that are captured by the forces of the regime are killed with no
   regard to their sectarian affiliation. Since the Alawites operate as a
   cohesive network, defections among them have been more difficult than for
   Sunnis. ME1507 told me that 1200 troops defected yesterday in the north
   and they included five Alawite officers. In Der'a, 20 Alawite officers
   have defected since Asad gave his ominous interview to the ABC. The
   interview, in which Asad said he was not responsible for killing
   demonstrators, has convinced many Alawite officers that Asad is trying to
   exonerate himself and implicate his Alawite supporters. He says Asad gave
   a stupid interview that will accelerate a Alawite led coup to oust him.

   ME1473 says a military coup in Syria is likely to happen within few weeks.
   He says there are many hurdles to overcome before a coup occurs. Alawite
   officers have demands and they want to make sure they will not be targeted
   after Asad's overthrow. He says what is currently being debated includes
   surrendering political authority to Sunnis, while Alawites maintain
   control of the army and Sunnis assume control of the air force. He says
   the post-Asad political system in Syria will observe the presence of a
   delicate balance of power that would make it virtually impossible for
   members of one sect to persecute another sect. The ouster of Asad is a
   matter of successfully dealing with the nuances of Syrian society and its
   heterogenous components.
</description>
    <date>2011-12-15 01:26:17</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-15 20:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/206896_-alpha-insight-syria-alawite-officer-defections-me1473-and.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>209631</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - SYRIA - military/intel reshuffle
</title>
    <description>9</description>
    <date>2008-07-11 21:52:11</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-13 17:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/209631_insight-syria-military-intel-reshuffle-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
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      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>209776</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - CHINA - China and Latam in 2012 - CN13
</title>
    <description>   This is awesome.

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Dec 16, 2011, at 5:37, Allison Fedirka &lt;allison.fedirka@stratfor.com&gt;
   wrote:

     SOURCE: CN13
     ATTRIBUTION: Sino-Latam expert
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Founder of SinoLatin Capital
     PUBLICATION: Yes, with no attribution.  Per Karen's request.
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: A/B
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

     So here is what I see happening in 2012: Chinese companies will realize
     that many of their investments in Latam have been failures:
     - Example: Beidahuang in Argentina (Rio Negro)
     - Example: Zijin Mining in Peru - Examples: Shunde Ruixin in Chile

     Failures have happened for a number of reasons:
     1. Lack of understanding of how to do deals overseas, and especially in
     Latam
     2. Perception that the having a relationship with Latam government (ie.
     The President or whomever) is good enough
     3. The President of the country in many cases can't control what is
     going on in a particular province, and Chinese firms need to understand
     that the local political situation is what really matters (national
     politics is almost irrelevant)
     4. Not hiring competent advisors. Not hiring advisors at all. Why?
     Mainly because it's difficult for Chinese firms to pay money for
     "advice" and also in some cases there isn't a relationship with the
     advisor. So the trust isn't there
     5. Overpaying for some assets.
     6. Underpaying for some assets. In instances where Chinese underpaid,
     they bought the wrong asset. It may have been cheap, but that's because
     it was located next to the narcotrafficker drug logistics corridor :)

     The lessons learned? Those that have lost face won't look inwardly. They
     will blame it "on the Peruvians."
     a:,*aa(R)*aa*"c,S:*e^2*aa-oS:ae**eu*a:,*aaYEN 1/2. Others will be
     more circumspect. There is a Biblical proverb that says that if you
     rebuke a wise man, he will appreciate it and grow wiser. And there are a
     number of wise people running Chinese companies. Smart people will learn
     from their mistakes and do things better the next time around.

     Another trend that I see is that Chinese companies will start doing
     manufacturing deals. Particularly in Brazil. Excavator companies like
     Sany or Zoomlion will buy manufacturing plants in Brazil because they
     need to get into the Brazil market. There's going to be an explosion of
     activity in this sector.

     What isn't clear is what China will do in the Castro-Chavez sphere of
     influence (e.g. Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua). In Cuba
     there are Chinese firms that built offshore oil rigs. In Venezuela they
     are building rail lines. And in Bolivia they are trying to get a hold of
     lithium. But I don't see much real investment capital being put at risk.
     For all the talk about China's "investments" in Venezuela, a careful
     review will show that China isn't really investing. They are just buying
     cheap oil from the Venezuelans, selling it at a markup to the Americans,
     and with the profits they build railroads (with Chinese equipment,
     contractors, etc). China wins in every which way without putting down a
     dime of their own capital. On a related note, a month or so ago, thieves
     broke into the house of the Head of China Railroad Group in Caracas. It
     seems the fellow was held up at gunpoint while the looters stole
     everything that wasn't nailed down. Don't get me going on what is going
     on in Venezuela. What a mess. It will end very badly for the Chavistas.

     In the Taiwan sphere of influence (Caribbean, Central America,
     Paraguay), I see China making economic inroads. But I don't think anyone
     cares anymore if the particular country recognizes Taiwan. China is
     doing things in Guatemala, the Dominican Republic, etc. From a political
     standpoint, nobody seems to care.

     Latin America's 'Honeymoon Period' with China is transitioning into a
     more mature marriage. On the plus side, both sides are understanding
     each other better. On the negative side, both sides are understanding
     each other better :). The more you get to know someone, the more the
     warts come out. Chinese firms are increasingly seen as not transparent,
     culturally insensitive, capricious and greedy. Latins are viewed by the
     Chinese as un-serious, lazy, and burdened with overly complex labor
     laws, environmental groups and excessive bureaucracy. Will any of this
     impede business? In my book no. This is a marriage in which both sides
     really, really need each other. China needs to acquire resources in
     order to grow while Latin America needs to sell resources in order to
     grow. I think that 2012 will be another year of "settling in" and both
     sides will get more and more used to each other. I liken it to being in
     the bathroom brushing your teeth while your wife is on the john. When
     you get to that point, you know the honeymoon period is over :).

     Our firm is still deeply committed to China and Latin America. We act as
     a bridge that allows both sides to understand each other and we're
     betting our personal and professional careers on the growing linkages
     between the two regions. So for all the perceived negativity above,
     please interpret it for what it is: an un-jaundiced view of the
     situation that isn't prejudicial or political. We've been at this now
     for some time and despite the hiccups, we're still very optimistic. We
     want China and Latin America to succeed, and we see things getting a

     --
     Allison Fedirka
     South America Correspondent
     STRATFOR
     US Cell: +1.512.496.3466 A| Brazil Cell: +55.11.9343.7752
     www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-12-16 23:34:10</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-05 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/209776_re-alpha-insight-china-china-and-latam-in-2012-cn13-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>209919</id>
    <title>[alpha] RE-SENDING WITH SOURCE CODE - INSIGHT - PNA - Ideology
 behind leadership at Ma'an News Agency - PS200
</title>
    <description>   Per Jenn's request.

   On 12/17/11 11:03 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     Sending straight to alpha because no WO on. Replying to this thread
     because it's in reference to the bias we should be aware of from Ma'an
     News Agency, whose story Mikey just pasted in response to the insight on
     what's happening at Pal camps in Lebanon. Source is new, just met him on
     my trip. He's a journalist who works for Ma'an. Insight below is his
     response to my questions about wtf his boss was saying in the article I
     pasted below the insight ('Palestinian editor says Jerusalem will be
     liberated with "military honor"'):

     Nasser [Ma'an editor in chief Nasr al-Lahham] is the man but he's a nut.
     I know him well. Israelis know him too, he used to report from the
     Knesset and interviewed I think their president once at his home. 
     His point here, seems to me, is Abbas' strategy of building institutions
     and restoring security, rather than violently resisting, is key to
     liberating Palestine. He's telling the recruits they're just as
     important and valuable as Hezbollah and don't let anyone tell you
     otherwise 
     Here's the inside scoop on Nasser and the key to understanding how Maan
     remains the only truly independent news source in Palestine: He's a
     decades long supporter of the Popular Front, was president of the PFLP
     at Bethlehem Univ. and went to jail six years for it. 
     As a PFLP supporter, he detests organized religion and its mixing in
     politics (Hamas) just as much as he hates
     materialism/capitalism/corruption (Fatah). (On that second point, he's
     probably the most beloved media personality in the country and has huge
     influence, yet he never thought to move out of the refugee camp where he
     was born. Badass.) 
     The other important thing to know about Nasser, more important than
     anything else I just mentioned, is that he is batshit insane. Really do
     love the guy but something is off up there, trust me. He will spout out
     the craziest theories every once in a while ** 
     ----------------------------------------

     Palestinian editor says Jerusalem will be liberated with "military
     honor"

     Ma'an News Agency reports at 0429 gmt that its editor in chief Nasr
     al-Lahham, delivered a speech to a group of 600 Palestinian security
     personnel at Jericho's Palestinian Academy for Security Sciences, also
     known as Al-Istiqlal University. The event was attended by several
     high-ranking security figures such as Tawfiq al-Tirawi, head of the
     university board of management, and Nayif Jaradat, the academy's acting
     president.

     The report says that Al-Lahham "spoke about the occupation and how most
     of the young Jewish people do not know the meaning of the word
     occupation, because they have been brainwashed by the Israeli military
     and media establishments."

     He praises Palestinian [National] Authority (PNA) President Mahmud
     Abbas, and likens him to Palestinian figures such as Yasir Arafat and
     Khalid Mish'al, explaining that "all of them refused to give up on any
     right."

     Al-Lahham calls for an end to the criticism of Palestinians via
     satellite television and urges the media to respect the "conscience of
     the Palestinian youth," adding that such criticism is tantamount to
     "criticizing a whole generation's will of resistance and defiance." He
     continues: "You are the future. I stand before you, and I see no
     difference between you and Hezbollah fighters in south Lebanon. They
     liberated their homeland and you will liberate Jerusalem, God willing."
     He concludes his speech by saying "I swear in the pure blood of your
     father that we will pray in Jerusalem and you will liberate it with your
     military honour."

     Source: Ma'an News Agency website, Bethlehem, in Arabic 0429 gmt 30 Nov
     11

     BBC Mon ME1 MEEauosc 011211 sg

     On 12/16/11 2:59 PM, Michael Wilson wrote:

    Fatah figure denies plan to eliminate Salafists in Lebanese refugee camp 
                                                                             
    Text of report by independent, non-governmental Palestinian Ma'an News   
    Agency website                                                           
                                                                             
    ["Exclusive" report: "Al-Maqdah: Fatah not preparing plan to eliminate   
    Jund al-Sham and Jaysh al-Islam"]                                        
                                                                             
    Bethlehem, 15 December (Ma'an) - Munir al-Maqdah, commander of the Fatah 
    movement's general headquarters in Lebanon, denied that Palestinian      
    forces in the Ayn al-Hulwah refugee camp in south Lebanon are planning   
    to eliminate operatives from the Jund al-Sham and Jaysh al-Islam         
    organizations. These organizations have been accused of being behind the 
    assassination of 2nd lieutenant Ashraf al-Qadiri, escort of Mahmud Isa,  
    also known as Al-Linu, commander of the Palestinian Armed Struggle.      
                                                                             
    Al-Maqdah told Ma'an's radio network that the political leadership in    
    Ayn al-Hulwah has set up a committee to investigate the assassination,   
    but not to eliminate any particular operative or individual. He said     
    that no one is untouchable, no matter what happens, and that anyone      
    whose name is called should immediately head to the special committee in 
    the camp, and if that person is found guilty, he will be turned over to  
    the Lebanese army.                                                       
                                                                             
    Al-Maqdah said "there are no operatives from Fatah al-Islam or Jund      
    al-Sham in the camp, and this was an isolated incident." He added that   
    there are ongoing meetings in the camp "because there are people who     
    want to spark clashes in the camps, both internally and with their       
    neighbours, and undermine the stability and security in the camps."      
                                                                             
    Asked about the reconciliation and the latest meeting between            
    Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas and HAMAS Political Bureau chief      
    Khalid Mish'al in Cairo, Al-Maqdah said this was a positive step towards 
    the future Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital. He said the  
    reconciliation is a Palestinian demand and a force to confront Israel    
    with, and expressed hope that this demand will be fully and clearly      
    realized.                                                                
                                                                             
    Source: Ma'an News Agency website, Bethlehem, in Arabic 1851 gmt 15 Dec  
    11                                                                       
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEEauosc 161211 nan                                          

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

 --

       On 12/15/11 7:44 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

         Fatah Official Says Jund al-Sham Killed al-Lino's Bodyguard

         http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/23367-fatah-official-says-jund-al-sham-killed-al-linos-bodyguard

         by Naharnet Newsdesk 36 minutes ago

         A Fatah official has accused members of the militant group Jund
         al-Sham of assassinating the bodyguard of Palestinian Armed Struggle
         chief Mahmoud Issa, who goes by the nom de guerre of al-Lino.

         The official, who refused to be identified, told al-Liwaa daily
         published Thursday that a Jund al-Sham militant opened fire on
         28-year-old Ashraf al-Qaderi at the Palestinian refugee camp of Ain
         el-Hilweh on Wednesday, killing him instantly.

         Cautious calm prevailed on Thursday in the camp that lies near the
         southern port city of Sidon.

         But the official said that the remaining members of Jund al-Sham are
         seeking to create tension after several security incidents, bombings
         and shootings at the camp.

         He added that several members of the militant group had been
         arrested by the Palestinian Armed Struggle and handed over to
         Lebanese authorities.

         The official hinted that al-Qaderi's killing was aimed at taking
         vengeance at the arrests.

         Keeping an eye on those cookey Palestinians with their guns and
         their shooting. Oy vey! [nick]

         Palestinian commander's bodyguard killed in Lebanon

         http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=342778

         December 15, 2011

         The bodyguard of a top Palestinian commander was shot dead on
         Wednesday in a refugee camp in southern Lebanon, a local official
         said.

         "At around 10:00 p.m., a masked gunman shot and killed Ashraf Qadiri
         at his shop here in the Ain al-Hilweh camp," said Munir Maqdah, in
         charge of security at the camp near the southern coastal city of
         Saida.

         Qadiri was a bodyguard for Mohammed Abdel Hamid Issa, alias
         "Al-Lino," the head of Palestinian party Fatah's police force in Ain
         al-Hilweh.

         Maqdah said Fatah forces had gone on alert and deployed throughout
         the camp, adding that the shooter had not yet been identified.

         Wednesday's shooting was the second such incident this week
         targeting one of Issa's bodyguards.

         Ain al-Helweh, the largest Palestinian camp in the country, is home
         to about 50,000 refugees and is known to harbor extremists and
         fugitives.

         By long-standing convention, the Lebanese army does not enter the
         country's 12 refugee camps, leaving security inside to the
         Palestinians themselves.

         The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian refugees
         (UNRWA) estimates that some 425,000 Palestinian refugees are living
         in Lebanon, a country with a population of four million.

         Others, however, estimate the number to be closer to 250,000.

         -AFP/NOW Lebanon

         --

         On 11/29/11 12:03 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           I don't think al-Saiqa has been very active since at least the
           1990s.  Their militant history has as far as I'm aware always been
           fighting within Lebanon and Syria, not towards Israel (though they
           did claim some int'l terror attacks in the 1980s).  That is all
           very different from the rocket attacks the last 24 hours, not to
           mention that Saiqa didn't claim those.   

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: "Marc Lanthemann" &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
           To: "alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
           Sent: Tuesday, November 29, 2011 11:30:13 AM
           Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - SYRIA/LEBANON - Syrian activity in Pal
           camps -        ME1403

           SOURCE: ME1403
           ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
           SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Fatah military source in Lebanon
           PUBLICATION: yes
           SOURCE RELIABILITY: B - good track record in reporting
           ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
           SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
           SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

           the PA has damning evidence about the intention of the Syrian
           regime to cause trouble in Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon.
           Dozens of Syrian men have in recent weeks moved into major camps
           such as Ain al-Hilwa, Sabra &amp; Shatila, al-Biddawi and al-Burj
           al-Shimali. The Syrians appear bent of exploding the security
           situation in the camps should the security situation in Syria go
           out of control. This will be part of the Syrian regime's efforts
           to hold Lebanon hostage and to use it in order to negotiate a deal
           with the West.

           The Syrians believe that the French are leading the Western
           efforts to isolate the Syrian regime. They are also aware that the
           French feel they have a moral and historical responsibility
           towards Lebanon. Therefore, the Syrians seem to want to use
           Lebanon to stop the French diplomatic drive against the regime in
           Damascus. The Syrians arriving into camps in Lebanon belong to
           al-Saeqa Palestinian guerrilla movement, which is largely seen as
           an extention of the Syrian army intelligence.

           --
           Sean Noonan
           Tactical Analyst
           STRATFOR
           T: +1 512-279-9479 | M: +1 512-758-5967
           www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-12-17 19:44:13</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 02:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/209919_-alpha-re-sending-with-source-code-insight-pna-ideology.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bayless.parsley@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>209958</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT - CHINA - China and Latam in 2012 - CN13
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE: CN13
   ATTRIBUTION: Sino-Latam expert
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Founder of SinoLatin Capital
   PUBLICATION: Yes, with no attribution.  Per Karen's request.
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: A/B
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

   So here is what I see happening in 2012: Chinese companies will realize
   that many of their investments in Latam have been failures:
   - Example: Beidahuang in Argentina (Rio Negro)
   - Example: Zijin Mining in Peru - Examples: Shunde Ruixin in Chile

   Failures have happened for a number of reasons:
   1. Lack of understanding of how to do deals overseas, and especially in
   Latam
   2. Perception that the having a relationship with Latam government (ie.
   The President or whomever) is good enough
   3. The President of the country in many cases can't control what is
   going on in a particular province, and Chinese firms need to understand
   that the local political situation is what really matters (national
   politics is almost irrelevant)
   4. Not hiring competent advisors. Not hiring advisors at all. Why?
   Mainly because it's difficult for Chinese firms to pay money for
   "advice" and also in some cases there isn't a relationship with the
   advisor. So the trust isn't there
   5. Overpaying for some assets.
   6. Underpaying for some assets. In instances where Chinese underpaid,
   they bought the wrong asset. It may have been cheap, but that's because
   it was located next to the narcotrafficker drug logistics corridor :)

   The lessons learned? Those that have lost face won't look inwardly. They
   will blame it "on the Peruvians."
   a:,*aa(R)*aa*"c,S:*e^2*aa-oS:ae**eu*a:,*aaYEN 1/2. Others will be
   more circumspect. There is a Biblical proverb that says that if you
   rebuke a wise man, he will appreciate it and grow wiser. And there are a
   number of wise people running Chinese companies. Smart people will learn
   from their mistakes and do things better the next time around.

   Another trend that I see is that Chinese companies will start doing
   manufacturing deals. Particularly in Brazil. Excavator companies like
   Sany or Zoomlion will buy manufacturing plants in Brazil because they
   need to get into the Brazil market. There's going to be an explosion of
   activity in this sector.

   What isn't clear is what China will do in the Castro-Chavez sphere of
   influence (e.g. Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua). In Cuba
   there are Chinese firms that built offshore oil rigs. In Venezuela they
   are building rail lines. And in Bolivia they are trying to get a hold of
   lithium. But I don't see much real investment capital being put at risk.
   For all the talk about China's "investments" in Venezuela, a careful
   review will show that China isn't really investing. They are just buying
   cheap oil from the Venezuelans, selling it at a markup to the Americans,
   and with the profits they build railroads (with Chinese equipment,
   contractors, etc). China wins in every which way without putting down a
   dime of their own capital. On a related note, a month or so ago, thieves
   broke into the house of the Head of China Railroad Group in Caracas. It
   seems the fellow was held up at gunpoint while the looters stole
   everything that wasn't nailed down. Don't get me going on what is going
   on in Venezuela. What a mess. It will end very badly for the Chavistas.

   In the Taiwan sphere of influence (Caribbean, Central America,
   Paraguay), I see China making economic inroads. But I don't think anyone
   cares anymore if the particular country recognizes Taiwan. China is
   doing things in Guatemala, the Dominican Republic, etc. From a political
   standpoint, nobody seems to care.

   Latin America's 'Honeymoon Period' with China is transitioning into a
   more mature marriage. On the plus side, both sides are understanding
   each other better. On the negative side, both sides are understanding
   each other better :). The more you get to know someone, the more the
   warts come out. Chinese firms are increasingly seen as not transparent,
   culturally insensitive, capricious and greedy. Latins are viewed by the
   Chinese as un-serious, lazy, and burdened with overly complex labor
   laws, environmental groups and excessive bureaucracy. Will any of this
   impede business? In my book no. This is a marriage in which both sides
   really, really need each other. China needs to acquire resources in
   order to grow while Latin America needs to sell resources in order to
   grow. I think that 2012 will be another year of "settling in" and both
   sides will get more and more used to each other. I liken it to being in
   the bathroom brushing your teeth while your wife is on the john. When
   you get to that point, you know the honeymoon period is over :).

   Our firm is still deeply committed to China and Latin America. We act as
   a bridge that allows both sides to understand each other and we're
   betting our personal and professional careers on the growing linkages
   between the two regions. So for all the perceived negativity above,
   please interpret it for what it is: an un-jaundiced view of the
   situation that isn't prejudicial or political. We've been at this now
   for some time and despite the hiccups, we're still very optimistic. We
   want China and Latin America to succeed, and we see things getting a

   --
   Allison Fedirka
   South America Correspondent
   STRATFOR
   US Cell: +1.512.496.3466 A| Brazil Cell: +55.11.9343.7752
   www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-12-16 12:36:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-10 21:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/209958_-alpha-insight-china-china-and-latam-in-2012-cn13-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>allison.fedirka@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>211021</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] RE-SENDING WITH SOURCE CODE - INSIGHT - ISRAEL - Convo
 with an IDF intel officer - IL200
</title>
    <description>   sorry IL200 not IS

   On 12/17/11 12:43 PM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     This is per Jenn's request.

     On 12/15/11 10:30 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

       Source is an old friend from college who is now a major in IDF
       intelligence. Had not seen one another in years. Very secretive of
       what they do; seemed pretty suspicious about what exactly I was doing
       in Israel. Nothing too groundbreaking, just some interesting
       observations.

       - When I used the term "Arab Spring" early on in our conversation, I
       was reprimanded. "Don't call it the Arab Spring. We call it 'The
       Upheaval' where I work." When I tried to explain that we typically
       scoff at calling it the Arab Spring as well, I was cut off, so that I
       could hear another lecture about how horrible Arabs were. Israelis
       aren't the nicest people most of the time.

       - Opsec at IDI (Israel Defense Intelligence) seems pretty extreme. If
       you try to email this person, you don't hear back for a month, minimum
       - usually even longer. Reason is because no websites that have
       passwords are allowed at work. Emails for internal comms only.

       - Source is in D.C. frequently for meetings with DIA. When I asked if
       they are often trained by the Americans, the response was a smirk and,
       "We like to think we don't need the Americans to train us." IDI,
       source said, is "more creative" than American counterparts. The way
       they work sounded similar in philosophy to STRATFOR, actually. For
       example, there is a specific officer who is referred to as the
       "Devil's advocate" at the IDI offices. This person is allowed to
       challenge any random paper on any topic, produced by someone of any
       rank. If a paper is written that says, hypothetically, that Bashar
       will fall in three weeks, the Devil's advocate can then say, "Okay,
       I'm challenging this assertion. Now, I want you to write the exact
       opposite argument and play out the logic." Source did not deny that
       they, too, can fall prey to groupthink like any other intelligence
       body, but was a firm believe that this was a good way to avoid it.

       - "Where are the moderates in the Muslim world?" That was the theme of
       the conversation on source's end. If you listen to this person, you
       come away with the notion that the Israelis seem extremely unnerved
       about the future of the region, with the primary focus being on the
       Iranian threat. (Again, this is not groundbreaking insight.)

       - Source openly said that none of this shit would be happening right
       now had Obama not abandoned Mubarak like he did. When I later
       criticized Bush for shattering the balance of power in the PG, source
       shot back, "Well what about Obama?" I said that Obama had maintained
       the same FP as Bush, a claim with which the source agreed. And yet the
       source loves Bush's policies and hates Obama's. Israelis are not a fan
       of Barack.

       - Because Obama abandoned Mubarak, source lamented the fact that Egypt
       was no longer the leader of the Arab world. This does not mean source
       believes the MB is on the verge of completely taking power in Egypt -
       (I specifically asked if that was the belief the IDI holds) - but it
       does mean that there is a steep drop in faith that the SCAF has
       ability to maintain the status quo. Overall I found the message on
       Egypt a bit confusing.

       - Part of the reason that the message was confused message imo is
       because the source openly admits that in the IDI, people have a
       singular focus on the outside world. Like STRATFOR, they are largely
       disconnected with domestic politics. So the Syria people identify with
       Syria, the Hezbollah people will jokingly say stuff like, "I am in
       Hezbollah" when you ask them their AOR, etc.

       - The IDI is very much focused on the Shiite crest ranging from Iran
       to Lebanon. Iran is the primary threat in the world today. Source was
       heavily concerned with how Yemen plays into this as well; much moreso
       than what we talk about. "AQAP is in control of south fucking Yemen,
       for God's sake." Source says they jokingly refer to AQAP as "AQHP"
       after the HP printer bombs that got seized on those DHL flights a few
       years back.

       - The IDI is operating on the assumption that Yemen will be completely
       out of water in eight years. I asked if this was their own assessment
       and source said, "No, it's public information. You can find it on
       Wikipedia." I think it took about one second for the source to realize
       retarded that sounded, citing Wikipedia when you're a major at the
       IDI, and so immediately it was amended with, "there have been studies
       published." Fear about Yemen running out of water is mass migrations
       into KSA, which Iran could exploit.

       - When I said that there were people in the Israeli
       government/military/intel community who reads STRATFOR, source said,
       "I can check on that for you." Thanks.
</description>
    <date>2011-12-17 20:01:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 02:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/211021_re-alpha-re-sending-with-source-code-insight-israel-convo.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bayless.parsley@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>211492</id>
    <title>RE: RES: Muito obrigado
</title>
    <description>    Dear Reva

    Curious destiny - this map was originally drafted, a long time ago, to
   study the radio waves from Navy communication stations in Brasilia and
   Recife.My merit was to see that it was also a geopolitical map.finally it
   will arrive in your office in Washington D.C.

   I will be spending a few days with my wife  (vacation) in New York. I'll
   mail the map from the Big Apple so that it will come to you as quickly as
   possible.

   My postal address remains (hopefully)

   J. A. de Macedo Soares
   SAEI/GSI/PR
   Palacio do Planalto
   Prac,a dos 3 Poderes
   Brasilia/DF - BRAZIL
   CEP: 70150-900

   Glad to know that you will be spending some time in Brazil...we hope it
   will be quieter than the Middle East nowadays

   All the best and do send me a word by e-mail when this map gets to
   Washington

   Jose Antonio

   -----Mensagem original-----
   De: Reva Bhalla
   Para: macesoares@planalto.gov.br
   Enviada em: 19/02/2011 15:01
   Assunto: Re: RES: Muito obrigado

   Jose Antonio,

   You have no idea how happy your email has made me!  I was so heartbroken
   to have lost that map.  I was at a bar catching up with some friends
   yesterday and a guy next to me saw the huge smile that came across my
   face when I saw your message, he turned to me and said 'wow, I would
   like to know what to do to make a girl smile like that!'  I don't think
   he would have ever guessed it had to do with a world map with Brazil in
   the center, haha..

   Muito muito obrigado, Jose Antonio!  You are so wonderful to find and
   send me the map. It will hang proudly in Washington, DC.  I'm also
   making plans for next year to spend at least 6 months to a year in
   Brazil, so can't wait to be back in your part of the world soon enough!

   I hope you've been doing well. The Mideast has kept us sleep-deprived
   for weeks, but the work has been good.

   My home address in DC is:

   Reva Bhalla
   1400 S. Joyce Street # 311
   Arlington, VA 22202

   Likewise, please send me your address, as there is something that I
   would like to send you as a thank you for all the kindness and
   hospitality you displayed during my visit to your beautiful country.

   Thank you again!! 

   Abrac,os,
   Reva

   On Feb 18, 2011, at 3:09 PM, macesoares@planalto.gov.br
   &lt;mailto:macesoares@planalto.gov.br&gt;  wrote:

   February 18, 2011
    
   Dear Ms. Reva,
    
   We managed to find another copy of the map that was stolen.
   We were really saddened at the prospect of your office not having,
   finally,
   a world map with the right point of view.
    
   To what address should  I send this very suspicious looking tube with
   the map?
    
   best regards
    
   Jose Antonio

   -----Mensagem original-----
   De: Reva Bhalla [ mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com
   &lt;mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt; ]
   Enviada em: quarta-feira, 12 de janeiro de 2011 21:47
   Para: Jose Antonio Macedo Soares
   Assunto: Muito obrigado

   Senhor Macedo Soares,

   I wanted to express my gratitude again to you and your colleagues for
   taking the time to meet with me in Brasilia. It was an honor and
   privilege for me to engage in such a stimulating discussion in the
   situation room and to be given a tour of the presidential palace.  This
   is a side of Brazil that not many people get to see, and I have you to
   thank for giving me that opportunity.

   I have terrible news, though!  That beautiful map that you so kindly
   gave to me was stolen from me in the airport. I had it in a case
   attached to my bag, and the next thing I knew, it was gone.  I've been
   calling the airports and airlines for the past several days hoping to
   track it down, but haven't had any luck so far.  I am heartbroken, to
   say the least. I really loved that map and was so honored to have it. In
   any case, thank you so much for giving it to me in the first place. It
   was a really special gift.

   After spending time with the cariocas in Rio, the Itamaraty crowd in
   Brasilia, the gauchos in Rio Grande do Sul and all kinds of Paulistas in
   SP, I am leaving your beautiful country with a much better understanding
   of the Brazilian soul.  I plan to be back soon and hope to see you
   again. Please let me know if you have plans to visit Washington, DC or
   Texas. We would love to host you.

   In the meantime, I hope we can stay in touch and collaborate on various
   projects in the future.

   With warmest wishes,

   Reva

   Reva Bhalla
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Analyst - Middle East, South Asia, Latin America
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com &lt;http://www.stratfor.com&gt;
   +1 (512) 699-8385 (mobile)
</description>
    <date>2011-02-20 02:41:25</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-26 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/211492_re-res-muito-obrigado-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>macesoares@planalto.gov.br</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>211497</id>
    <title>FW: [Analytical &amp; Intelligence Comments] RE: WikiLeaks and the Afghan War
</title>
    <description>We need to make this guy our friend.=20



-----Original Message-----
From: responses-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:responses-bounces@stratfor.com=
] On Behalf Of vinay448@yahoo.co.in
Sent: Thursday, July 29, 2010 5:38 AM
To: responses@stratfor.com
Subject: [Analytical &amp; Intelligence Comments] RE: WikiLeaks and the Afghan =
War

MAJ GEN VINAY BHATNAGAR sent a message using the contact form at=20=20
https://www.stratfor.com/contact.

One of the interesting aspects brought out by these leaks is the support th=
e=20=20
ISI has given the Taliban to attack Indian Missions and Activities in=20=20
Afganistan. These are authetic reports, acknowledged by US officals. US Aid=
=20=20
to Pakistan is also diverted to support other terrorist organisations, whic=
h=20=20
not only act in India, but also against US interests in Afganistan and=20=
=20
Pakistan.
Pakistan, as a nation has always craftly followed the principle of " Runnin=
g=20=20
with the Hare, while Hunting with the Hound"
.We in India have no reason to ever believe the soundness of their desire t=
o=20=20
have peace with India-- Peace would destroy the traditional muscle the=20=
=20
Pakistani Army wields in running that country.
As for the US and it's Allies in Afganistan, they have no option but to "Gr=
in=20=20
On" at the intricacies that  unfold !




Source:=20=20
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100726_wikileaks_and_afghan_war?utm_source=
=3DGWeekly&amp;utm_medium=3Demail&amp;utm_campaign=3D1007027&amp;utm_content=3Dreadmore=
&amp;elq=3D7d68179903a242c1a84164085bfc85fc
</description>
    <date>2010-07-29 13:32:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/211497_fw-analytical-and-intelligence-comments-re-wikileaks-and-the.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>213877</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - Brazil - energy policy
</title>
    <description> From a lunch meeting with Dilma Rousseff's former energy advisor for  
Rio Grande do Sul

The source downloaded a ton of the most recent energy data on Brazil  
onto my computer. Will pass along to the research team and Peter for  
reference. He has also offered to put us in touch with whoever we need  
from Petrobras. This source is going to be mostly used to expand into  
other relationships in the energy sector.

One interesting thing to note -- out of all the issues I've discussed  
in various meetings in Brazil -- foreign policy, police corruption,  
organized crime, drug trafficking, terrorism, security, defense, etc.,  
the one issue that has been by far the most sensitive is energy.  It's  
not just my imagination, either. Paulo has noticed the same thing.  
Everyone feels extremely reluctant to discuss anything related to  
energy strategy. This source in particular was really uncomfortable  
talking about Petrobras strategy himself and preferred for us to just  
speak with them directly. Those working on the strategic side of  
Petrobras won't discuss anything on the phone. Even in later meetings  
in Sao Paulo, a source's body language totally switched from extremely  
engaged to guarded the second we went into a discussion on Petrobras's  
moves. It's really strange. When I inquired about it, the answer I got  
was that it was a highly strategic issue for Brazil so people aren't  
as open to talking about it.

This source talked a lot about how Brazil's big focus is on self- 
sufficiency and provided all the data and maps to back that up.  Every  
source acknowledges that since the nationalizations and military  
occupation of the energy facilities in Bolivia, Brazil is extremely  
cautious with La Paz and is working toward dramatically reducing any  
dependency it has on Bolivia for nat gas.

When we were talking about Argentina, he brought up an interesting  
example of an agreement Brazil and Argentina came up with a few years  
ago in which Brazil would provide Argentina with hydropower while  
Argentina would provide natural gas to Brazil in return. The purpose  
of the deal was to show the 'strategic partnership' that the two  
countries have (we've seen a lot of examples of this, the latest one  
being Argentina's offer to help build infrastructure in Brazil for the  
World Cup.)  Now, Argentina isn't shipping nat gas to Brazil anymore  
because it's having trouble supplying its own market. Brazil is still  
exporting hydropower though. SHows the growing imbalance between the  
two.

The govt intends to throw whatever money it needs to for the pre-sal  
investment. So much is hinged on this thing, and they are throwing  
everythign they've got at the whole endeavor. The source claims that  
there's no preference Brazil is giving to certain companies over  
others -- they plan to build a big international consortium with  
Petrobras of course having the largest stake and veto power in all pre- 
sal exploration deals.

The source knows Dilma well and worked a lot of years with her. He  
knows her style and said that he doesn't expect much change at all int  
he way of energy reform. As he put it, all the energy reforms  
implemented over the past 8 years all came from Dilma's head. Lula  
didn't get into that. As he sees it, most of that work has been done.
</description>
    <date>2011-01-19 03:51:47</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-26 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/213877_insight-brazil-energy-policy-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>213929</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - BRAZIL - Defense issues
</title>
    <description> From a meeting with the editor-in-chief of Defesa-Net (the Brazilian  
version of Jane's Intelligence.)  We have signed a confederation  
partnership with Defesa Net, so any Latam/Brazil defense-related  
issues can be forwarded to myself and Paulo as we keep in contact with  
this source.  On a separate note, I have another diplomatic source who  
has offered to put us in contact with both the Brazilian defense  
minister (Jobim) and the new foreign minister.


** One thing to keep in mind -- Defesa-Net's mindset is very much like  
STRATFOR's.  They're located in southern Brazil, near Porto Alegre  
(which honestly feels a lot like Austin in a lot of respects.)  They  
realize the benefit of keeping some safe distance from Brasilia and  
they're focused on sifting through the headlines, the noise, etc. to  
tell what's really going on. There are rumors also that Defesa Net is  
used as an outlet for leaks by Brazilian military officials.

While in my meetings with Brazilian generals and security officials in  
Rio and Brasilia made it sound like Brazil more or less had a plan,  
this source kept stressing that the Brazilian defense establishment is  
sorely lacking in one main area:  strategy.  He openly admits that the  
nuclear subs really make very little sense.  He recalls how in 2006 he  
was tracking the submarine tenders when Brazil was considering buying  
subs from the Germans.. then, all of a sudden, in 2008 (on what  
appears to Lula's and Jobim's initiatives)  Brazil comes up with this  
nuclear sub idea. As he put it, it made for good headlines, but made  
very little strategic sense.  Nuclear subs are NOT quiet, not  
efficient, require lots of maintenance that Brazil in inexperienced  
with, etc. It's a decision that hasn't been thought through.  If you  
refer back to the notes from my meeting with the generals in Rio,  
though, they basically say that it's more about HAVING the subs as a  
deterrent more than anything.  The source agrees that there is  
consensus in pursuing the nuclear subs regardless.

Similarly, he says Embraer has created a new defense unit (last  
year.)  Then he said, 'for what? who knows. we're still figuring it  
out."  It's been made very clear that Dilma is giong to be protecting  
her state champions, including Embraer, Petrobras, Vale, etc. He also  
said how there are similar questions when it comes to Brazilian  
helicopter purchases... they need these helos to operate in the  
Amazon, but the ones they're buying from the Europeans, Russians, etc.  
don't necessarily stand up to the humidity in these conditions. It's  
very expensive to operate in the Amazon.

The source went into some detail in describing Dilma's style.  Dilma  
is a technocrat, first and foremost, a protective mother for Brazil,  
not ideological. She studies up on all the issues, asks a lot of  
questions, expects her ministers to be extremely well-prepared and to  
have a Plan B ready.  This isn't something that Brazilian officials  
are apparently used to. I could see that tension in both the  
diplomatic and miltiary circles as they're expecting to hit a lot of  
walls with Dilma. Everybody seems to believe that Dilma is highly  
competent, though.

This is why she is now ordering a sort of overhaul on the fighter jet  
situation. She is reviewing everything from scratch. Boeing has upped  
the offer more recently, trying to give assurances on technology  
transfer. This source doesn't seem to think that the tech transfer is  
as significant as others are making it out to be (but Im not so sure  
about this.)  We expect this source to keep us updated on what happens  
with the fighter jet deal -- my money is still on the French, but this  
decision doesn't seem to be coming any time soon.

Another reason why the French are so interested in these military  
deals with Brazil -- the French have a satellite launching point in  
Guyana and need Brazilian cooperation to protect that site.

The source admits that Brazil wants regional leadership, it just  
doesn't want the negative parts associated with such a role. In other  
words, Brazil doesn't want to make hard decisions.

He spent some time talking about the Islamic communities in the tri- 
border area as well.  He described this area mainly as a 'refuge' for  
Islamist militant groups milling around the area. They know that if  
they target Brazil, the risk losing that refuge (again, another reason  
why Brazil is so careful with its terrorism application and why Lula  
has been trying to be nice to Iran and hamas as well) he said how a  
lot of the Arab families living in the tri-border area are blackmailed  
by militant groups back in the Mideast -- where they are forced to  
provide a place to stay, prtoection, etc or else their family back  
home in the MIdeast gets hurt.  Seems like Brazil monitors a lot of  
these comms.  He also said Brazilian intel authorities are on alert  
and track every Islamic holiday. This is a region that they watch,  
even if they don't like to talk about it.

He said how a lot of the arms coming into the drug trafficking groups  
in Brazil come from Angola (those go to Rio mainly) and Nigeria (those  
go to SP mainly)
</description>
    <date>2011-01-19 03:51:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-26 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/213929_insight-brazil-defense-issues-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>215368</id>
    <title>Re: PDVSA guys are FLIRTY...
</title>
    <description>   whatever, dog ballz

   Marko Papic wrote:

     No seriously... why are Peter and I cc-ed to this dirty dirty dirty girl
     talk? I'm not complaining... just a little confused...

     ----- Original Message -----
     From: "Karen Hooper" &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Lauren Goodrich" &lt;goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;
     Cc: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;, "Peter Zeihan"
     &lt;zeihan@stratfor.com&gt;, "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Monday, December 8, 2008 1:24:55 PM GMT -05:00 Colombia
     Subject: Re: PDVSA guys are FLIRTY...

     send them to DC, they can take me shopping any time.

     i'll just be sure to bring my chastity belt... and mace.

     Lauren Goodrich wrote:

       Have to admit... Russians are sooooo severe and paranoid... meeting
       with dummy, flirty Venezuelans is nice after my looooong day.
       They keep offering to take me "shopping tonight' to buy me "whatever I
       want"... I have declined for the record.
       Though if godfather wasn't picking me up in 20 min, I might play...
       they're fun (and veeeery high up in pdvsa).

       Karen Hooper wrote:

         Taladre, bebe, taladre!!!

         (drill, baby, drill, for the language-challenged.... lauren, i think
         you should practice saying that to your new "friends")

         Reva Bhalla wrote:

           those PDVSA guys have multiple drilling talents, if you catch my
           drift...

           and NO im not speaking from experience. it's the meds talking...

           Karen Hooper wrote:

             An STD-free team player, thank you very much.

             Reva Bhalla wrote:

               psh, what kind of team player are you?

               Karen Hooper wrote:

                 Hah!

                 I'm soooooooo not sleeping with PDVSA reps for this job.
                 Sorry guys.

                 Lauren Goodrich wrote:

                   Drinking with them right now.
                   Will return with goodies.
                   Geez, Karen. All you need do is sleep with these guys and
                   you got them. (PS... Not willing to sleep with them for
                   you--sorry)

                   Sent from my iPhone

                 --
                 Karen Hooper
                 Latin America Analyst
                 Stratfor
                 206.755.6541
                 www.stratfor.com

             --
             Karen Hooper
             Latin America Analyst
             Stratfor
             206.755.6541
             www.stratfor.com

         --
         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         Stratfor
         206.755.6541
         www.stratfor.com

       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       Stratfor
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

     --
     Karen Hooper
     Latin America Analyst
     Stratfor
     206.755.6541
     www.stratfor.com

     --
     Marko Papic

     Stratfor Junior Analyst
     C: + 1-512-905-3091
     marko.papic@stratfor.com
     AIM: mpapicstratfor
</description>
    <date>2008-12-08 19:30:17</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/215368_re-pdvsa-guys-are-flirty-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>hooper@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>215654</id>
    <title>Fw: extraordinary achievement
</title>
    <description>   Storm clouds lifting.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Ibrahim Kalin &lt;ibrahimkalin@gmail.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 3 Sep 2010 20:08:42 -0500 (CDT)
   To: George Friedman&lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: extraordinary achievement
   dear george.
   i understand your dilemma! it is more a reflection of the realities of
   turkish society and politics than an error or failure in your analysis.
   such a complicated society as turkey does not lend itself to neat
   categories.
   but there are, as you know very well, different levels of analysis and
   they can be applied to the religious and political trends in turkey. this
   holds true for the gulen movement as well as the secularists (and ak party
   and others). part of the reason why there is always a very strong reaction
   to an analysis that seems to leave out one piece of the puzzle is that
   there is a deep sense of existential threat in almost all social and
   political movements/groups in turkey. the modern turkish republic was
   founded upon a zero-sum game for various historical reasons and security
   in the widest sense of the term has been the top priority of the
   republican elites for many decades. paradoxically and rather sadly, it has
   created similar emotions and reactions among the non-state elites, leading
   to a mirror image. ak party, probably the most successful political
   movement in recent turkish history in terms of its ability to project a
   new social imagination across the turkish society (i just came back from a
   major rally in diyarbakir where pm erdogan embraced the entire country
   with its turks, kurds, arabs, etc, without stepping on anyone's toe- a
   nearly impossible job!).
   regarding the gulen movement, there are many points that need to be
   considered. but i know this is not what you ask in your message.
   the best thing to do is to reach fethullah gulen himself. but that might
   too cumbersome. my suggestion is to contact ekrem dumanli, editor-in-chief
   of zaman newspaper. i will be happy to introduce you to him.
   regards,
   ibrahim

   2010/9/1 George Friedman &lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;

     Dear Ibrahim:

     Stratfor appears to have achieved the impossible.* We are disliked by
     the secularists for spreading the idea of neo-Ottomanism and now by the
     Gulen movement as agents of foreign powers (I guess that means the U.S.
     and Israel).* It is hard to offend both groups but we have done it.* My
     view of our analysis of the Gulen movement is that it described it as
     what it was--a powerful strand of the Turkish polity.* We have been
     accused of saying that they were violent (we didn't) and of being
     foreign agents (we aren't).*

     The responses are in a way understandable, but at the same time it is a
     bit troubling.* I doubt that there is any group as favorably inclined to
     Turkey as Stratfor is at this moment and we take a lot of grief from the
     Armenians and Jews for this. I am particularly pressured but I take
     perverse pride in resisting.*

     So I write asking some advice.* I have nothing against the Gulen
     movement.* I find it interesting and important and worth the time and
     effort we spent studying them.* We understood what they wanted but what
     we gave them was, in an American context, not at all negative.* They are
     a powerful group to be taken seriously.* I am inclined to call someone
     if not to smooth things over but to make it clear that I have no
     animosity toward them--simply to set that part of the record straight,
     and to listen to particularly criticisms.* Detailed objections have been
     scarce.*

     Do you have any suggestion on whether and how to proceed.* I know this
     might be delicate for you so if you want to decline involvement I
     entirely understand.

     George

     --

     George Friedman

     Founder and CEO

     Stratfor

     700 Lavaca Street

     Suite 900

     Austin, Texas 78701

     Phone* 512-744-4319

     Fax* 512-744-4334
</description>
    <date>2010-09-04 02:51:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-07 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/215654_fw-extraordinary-achievement-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>215681</id>
    <title>=?utf-8?Q?Re:_Stratfor_A_nalizi_hakk=C4=B1nda_habe_rler?=
</title>
    <description>   Fascinating..

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Sep 7, 2010, at 9:32 AM, "George Friedman"
   &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt; wrote:

     Fyi.

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: ibrahimkalin@gmail.com
     Date: Tue, 7 Sep 2010 03:46:07 -0500 (CDT)
     To: George Friedman&lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;; Kamran
     Bokhari&lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: ibrahimkalin@gmail.com
     Subject: Fw: Stratfor A nalizi hakkA:+-nda habe rler
     Dear george and kamran.
     I asked some media outlets to write about the stratfor report on turkey
     and the balkans and below are the links to the news reports they
     produces.
     Ibrahim

     Bu e-posta, Turkcell BlackBerry ile gAP:nderilmiAA*tir.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: volkan durmaz &lt;volkan.durmaz@hotmail.com&gt;
     Date: Tue, 7 Sep 2010 11:36:07 +0300
     To: Esra Kirecci KDK&lt;esrakirecci@gmail.com&gt;
     Cc: A:DEGbrahim KalA:+-n&lt;ibrahimkalin@gmail.com&gt;; cemalettin haAA*imi
     kdk&lt;chasimi@gmail.com&gt;
     Subject: Stratfor A nalizi hak kA:+-nda habe rler

     Esra HanA:+-m;
      
      
     STRATFOR Analizi hakkA:+-nda internet basA:+-nA:+-nda AS:A:+-kan
     haberlerin baAA*lA:+-calarA:+- (bugA 1/4n itibariyle) aAA*aA:*A:+-daki
     gibidir;
      
     http://www.cnnturk.com/2010/dunya/09/06/stratfordan.turkiye.balkanlar.analizi/588951.0/index.html
      
     http://www.starkibris.net/index.asp?haberID=69680
      
     http://www.turkishny.com/headline-news/2-headline-news/38163-stratfordan-turkiye-balkanlar-analizi
      
     http://www.haberx.com/Default.aspx?p=17&amp;n=10441819&amp;fn=1
      
     http://www.guncelhaber.com/dunya/stratfordan-turkiye-balkanlar-analizi-527402.html
      
     http://www.aktifhaber.com/news_detail.php?id=324889
      
       
      
     Volkan 
     KDK 
</description>
    <date>2010-09-07 15:44:05</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-07 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/215681_-utf-8-q-re-_stratfor_a_nalizi_hakk-c4-b1nda_habe_rler-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>218047</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT - PNG - Two PMs - CN65
</title>
    <description>   **intel on the OS report below.

   SOURCE: CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: A
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

   If Somare tries to pass anything through the House, he will fail, and
   under the Westminster tradition that triggers cause for the G-G to appoint
   another PM even if there's been no vote of no confidence.

   Uncle Ben is advising O'Neill. Peter is sitting in Parliament challenging
   Somare to bring on a vote on anything, such as a new Speaker. Of course a
   defeat provides a trigger. 

   We believe Peter will eventually prevail because the Chamber supports him.
   This is what Westminster democracy is about. 
   The business community wants Peter, as does Australia. Somare returns PNG
   to a cess pit of corruption, incompetence and mediocrity. Need I regale
   you with the details of my meeting last year with Somare's housing
   minister who was stoned on betel nut?
   It is wrong though that business put O'Neill in place: it was Uncle Ben
   and his Highlands circle, along with others like Babani. These are the
   sensible people. 

           Papua New Guinea in crisis with two PMs, two police chiefs

     PAPUA New Guinea plunged into a constitutional crisis yesterday as Peter
     O'Neill, rejecting a Supreme Court ruling that removed him as prime
     minister, occupied the government benches in parliament and broke though
     a police barricade at the Governor-General's residence.

     Australian Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd said PNG had entered uncharted
     waters since Monday's Supreme Court split ruling that reinstated Michael
     Somare and prompted armed police to stand guard at the vice-regal
     residence in Port Moresby .

     About 60 MPs loyal to Mr O'Neill stormed past the police at the gates of
     Government House yesterday and insisted on a meeting with
     Governor-General Michael Oglio.

     "We are unarmed and we're the legitimate government," they chanted
     according to the ABC.

     Standing at the gates of Government House, Mr O'Neill declared: "As
     parliament speaks today, I am the prime minister of the country, and
     Somare is trying to hijack it with some hooligan policemen."

     Some of the police guarding Government House are loyal to Sir Michael.
     One of his first acts when the court ordered he return to government was
     to reinstate former police commissioner Fred Yakasa and oust Mr
     O'Neill's appointee Tom Kulunga.

     Mr O'Neill said Mr Oglio had met with him briefly yesterday and said he
     had agreed to meet Sir Michael, the founding father of PNG and known as
     the grand chief, today.

     "I cannot discuss the details of that meeting because he has to afford
     the same level of courtesy to the grand chief," Mr O'Neill said.

     "He will meet with the grand chief tomorrow. He will then write to both
     of us and express his decision on the best way to move forward."

     Shots were fired outside Government House on Monday night, and yesterday
     Mr O'Neill's treasurer Don Polye urged the MPs to be peaceful amid a
     heavily armed police presence.

     "We must sit. There is no need for shooting. I urge you all to sit down
     and be peaceful," Mr Polye said.

     Sir Michael is understood to be at the popular Ela Beach Hotel in Port
     Moresby, where he has set up cabinet made up mostly of ministers from
     his previous government. Sir Michael's daughter Betha told the news
     agency Agence-France Presse that her father had made it to Government
     House and been sworn in, although this could not be confirmed elsewhere.

     "The PM has already gone into Government House and he's already signed
     off on the instruments recognising Sir Michael as prime minister," she
     said.

     But she added that his ministers had been prevented from joining him
     after Mr O'Neill and dozens of his MPs blockaded the building. "What's
     happening at the gates of Government House is that the government, or
     the rogues that were ousted, have blocked off the Government House
     gates," she said. "So the people that are supposed to be sworn in cannot
     be sworn in."

     Mr Ogio was seeking legal advice yesterday, including from private
     lawyers, before deciding which claimant to swear in.

     Sir Michael Ogio - appointed Governor-General this year when Sir Michael
     was unquestionably the prime minister - swore in Mr O'Neill at the
     August 2 parliamentary sitting that elected him after Speaker Jeffery
     Nape ruled that the top office was vacant.

     At that stage, Sir Michael - who has run the country for almost half of
     its 36 years of independence - had been away in Singapore for four
     months undergoing medical treatment.

     The Supreme Court led by Chief Justice Salamo Injia ruled by 3-2 on
     Monday that the prime ministership was not vacant, since Sir Michael had
     neither resigned nor been ruled medically unfit to govern.

     Sir Michael, 75, yesterday denied his health would prevent him from
     returning to office. "My doctor in Singapore believes that my health is
     as good as any. I'm well enough to be a 40 year old again," he told the
     ABC.

     Sir Michael's claim to the prime ministership rests with the 3-2 ruling.
     Mr O'Neill's claim rests with his re-election yesterday by parliament,
     69-0, following the judgment.

     Mr Nape said during the emergency parliament sitting that he would only
     recognise the government of Mr O'Neill, whose MPs refused to vacate the
     government's side of the chamber. Adding to the chaos yesterday, the
     rivals pushed ahead with appointments, leaving the country with two
     cabinets and two police chiefs.

     The police, divided between Mr O'Neill's commissioner, Mr Kulunga, and
     Sir Michael's new appointment, Mr Yakasa, were playing a key role in
     choosing which group could gain access to key institutions of state and,
     most importantly, to the Governor-General. The armed police outside the
     Governor-General's residence were loyal to Sir Michael, the ABC
     reported.

     Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd told ABC radio from New York he was "deeply
     concerned" about the situation in the former Australian mandate.

     "Obviously there are heightened political intentions within Port Moresby
     with two, as it were, alternative prime ministers. This is unknown
     terrain in Papua New Guinea," Mr Rudd said.

     "But we of course have been urging calm on the part of all parties. The
     PNG Defence Force has been directed to remain within barracks.

     "We have a very, very protracted political dispute between a number of
     politicians in Port Moresby.

     "We therefore have a responsibility to support a peaceful resolution to
     this dispute - violence would help nobody - and that's what we intend to
     do while at the same time fully respecting Papua New Guinea's
     sovereignty.

     "We therefore will be watching these developments very closely and using
     quiet diplomacy with all parties. Our immediate concern is simply to
     await the deliberations of the Governor-General."

     Australians in Papua New Guinea have been warned to stay away from
     crowded areas, particularly near the court and government buildings.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +216 22 73 23 19
 www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-12-14 15:14:35</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/218047_-alpha-insight-png-two-pms-cn65-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ben.preisler@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>219735</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - BRAZIL - the future of Mercosur, pre-sal, etc
</title>
    <description>   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Reva Bhalla &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: January 18, 2011 6:40:36 PM CST
     From a meeting in Sao Paulo with Sergio Fausto, one of the main
     architects of Plano Real -- the plan that rescued Brazil from economic
     calamity. Fausto heads up the Cardoso Institute in SP, highly connected
     in official policy circles. We have established a good working
     relationship with him and his institute.
     On the future of Mercosur --
     He agrees that Brazil has more or less grown out of Mercosur.  He
     explained how Brazil imposed the 4 + 1 voting rule when the group was
     created because Brazil mainly wanted to prevent Argentina from signing
     bilateral deals with the US.  Now, the situation has flipped. Brazil is
     in a stronger position and wants to sign bilateral deals of its own. At
     the same time, Brazil is afraid of Arg signing a bilateral deal with the
     Chinese and undercutting Brazilian sales in the Argentine market.
     He doesn't think Mercosur will revert from a customs union to an FTA,
     but he think it's more possible that a resolution could be introduced to
     abolish the 4+1 rule and lower the external tariff to allow members more
     flexibility in signing bilateral deals. Still, he made clear that none
     of this would be moving any time soon. Again, Brazil is worried about an
     Argentina- China deal. Business and labor unions in SP are uniting on
     this issue, trying to push for change, but he thinks this will still
     drag out for some time. 
     He described Brazil's integration dilemma (similar to what I heard from
     others.)  Brazil's borders have remained more or less unchanged, while
     Spanish America has been divided up over and over again. The Brazilian
     fear is that Spanish America will again view Brazil as a threat and that
     that fear will produce another Simon Bolivar-type attempt to unify
     Spanish America against Brazil ( the Colombians that I talked to, btw,
     find this idea hilarious. they know they're not uniting iwth anyone any
     time soon and they can see plainly that Brazil is trying to be the
     regional hegemon.)  Overall, the source is very skeptical of
     integration, but definitely sees the logic in Brazil wanting Chile and
     Argentina to balance against Brazil so that Brazil isn't seen as another
     US. 
     On Pre-Sal investment -- again, we noticed that he got more distant and
     cautious when talking about energy issues.  He said that the recent
     changes in regulation that give the state more authority over Pre-Sal
     (Fed govet has veto power in each exploration deal.) would likely lead
     to more preference toward state-owned firms in choosing members of hte
     pre-sal consortium.  As he said "a Chinese state firm will feel more
     comfortable working on this project." -- when i asked him to clarify, he
     seemed to be saying brazil prefers to deal with pre-sal on a state to
     state basis.
     ** This source is helping get us the data on Brazilian investment in the
     region and Brazilian population migration in the region for graphics we
     want to produce
</description>
    <date>2011-01-19 14:24:04</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-26 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/219735_insight-brazil-the-future-of-mercosur-pre-sal-etc-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>220936</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - RUSSIA/EU/CA/Caucasus - Energy politics
</title>
    <description>   PUBLICATION: background/analysis
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Ambassador-at-large for energy security, Czech
   Republic and chief of CR's nuclear tender for Temelin
   SOURCE  Reliability :  B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2 
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
   The level of distrust between Ukraine and Russia is unbelievable. You know
   it's bad when they are using guys like me to communicate with each other.
   There is a very, very small number of people who actually know what's
   going on in the nat gas negotiations -- Putin, Medvedev, head of Naftogaz,
   Miller of Gazprom, Yanukovich and maybe the FM. By trust, I mean,  for
   example, you, Reva  and I have a deal. I sell X amount to you, we settle
   on an amount to trim from the top and keep for ourselves, clean the books,
   etc. Now, all of a sudden, I am replaced. You don't the person you're
   dealing with anymore and if he will uphold his end of the deal. Thoughout
   the 1990s things worked fine. Over the past few years, though, ppl kept
   getting replaced and nobody could trust each other. This is how we got to
   the last cutoff.
   Putin's strategy during the last cutoff was the following:
   Russia know Ukraine is stealing X amount of gas. Russia will send Z amount
   of gas promised to Europe plus the X amount of gas Ukraine was stealing.
   The objective was to portray Ukraine as the villain, while Russia could be
   seen as the dependable partner. Bulgaria, Slovakia and Serbia were the
   only ones who be feeling the shortages.
   When I met with Putin and Sechin during this cutoff, I was very blunt with
   them. I told them the strategy doesn't work. We in Czech Republic,
   Slovakia, etc. will survive without Russian gas. We will process other
   fuel, it may be dirty, but who cares. We are also getting offers at a
   third of the price from Qatar and others. So, Russia doesn't have that
   leverage that it had in 2006. These moves only encourage the Europeans to
   find other suppliers.  This is a problem for Putin... there are people who
   saw the flaws of the strategy but were not able to speak up. It backfired.
     You know me, I am an atheist. I don't believe when the Bible says to
   turn the other cheek... I say if someone hits you, hit them twice back.
    This is about getting even with the Russians. We want Russia to take us
   seriously.
   Russia is very much in control of Ukrainian decision-making. Only a very
   small number of people are in the know there. The Russians don't need
   direct ownership of the energy sector to have the influence they're
   looking for right now. They were very well prepared for making their
   comeback in Ukraine. It is a well-oiled machine there.
   Kyrgyzstan was a message for the Chinese primarily.  China's presence in
   the 'Stans is the big issue right now, and the Russians need to keep China
   within limits. China brings in money and infrastructure, but when you talk
   to the regimes of these countries, they don't feel comfortable dealing
   with the Chinese like they do with the Russians. THey know the Russians -
   Russia is the default language, they know they work, etc. The Chinese come
   in on a completely different scale. These regimes are very paranoid.. if
   you look at the succession lines of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, they are all
   daughters. These govts are looking for security, and that is where Russia
   holds the upper hand over China.
   Russia is bankrupt save for the extractive industries. They having the
   oil, gas, mining, etc., but that is not a developed economy. They are not
   in good shape and there is serious thought behind the modernization plan.
   The big threat for Russia right now is not coming from the West... it
   comes from the East (China) and from the South (Islam.)   The Russians are
   showing some cooperation with US on Iran, but they haven't done anything,
   and they dont need to. It's a low-risk strategy. They aren't losing
   anything there.
   I don't have faith in Turkey's energy deal with Azerbaijan for Shah Deniz.
   It is remarkable to what degree Azerbaijan is under Russian influence.
   THey are thinking about their survival. The Azerbaijanis cannot agree to a
   final deal on Shah Deniz II.  When I was in Baku recently, they showed me
   a 3-D topographic map of Armenia, AZ, Nagorno. You can see very clearly
   that once (and if) the Armenians cross over with Russian backing, it is a
   flat path to Baku.  The Russians told them during the Georgia war that
   Georgia could just be the first stop... pretty direct threat. The
   Azerbaijanis are terrified of this. The difference between now and when
   BTC came online is that the US was actually there back then with a
   strategy. US is nonexistent in this game right now. Even the Europeans are
   disconnected. AZ, Georgia, Ukraine don't have others to turn to. All
   Russia has to do is pay off enough people or make a move in a certain
   enclave of Georgia to shut down BTC. AZ cannot only turn West... again,
   it's a matter of survival.
   Belarus will cave into Russian demands. Lukashenko knows he has no choice.
   That's 50 percent of his revenue gone otherwise, and he knows that. He is
   a nuisance for the Russians, but he isn't getting help form elsewhere.
   Even the Europeans have reproached him. 
   The Russians are very paranoid about Europe's energy plans. Sechin keeps
   asking me what is the secret plan, what are the Europeans plotting, etc. I
   tell them there is no secret plan. I wish there were one, but there really
   is not.
   The decision on building South Stream won't come until 2013-2014, after
   Nord Stream is completed. So far, Nord Stream is on track for completion,
   but it goes against Russia's energy strategy of avoiding transit states.
   The Russians are not happy with my appointment for the nuclear tender.
   They think I am anti-Russian.  The bid is between Rosatom, Areva and
   Westinghouse (Source met with Westinghouse day before our mtg). No two
   companies can enter jointly.. that would be breaking the rules of the
   tender at this stage. If Rosatom and Westinghouse try to do that for sake
   of US-Russia cooperation, then Areva would win by default. 
</description>
    <date>2010-08-09 03:36:14</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-04 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/220936_insight-russia-eu-ca-caucasus-energy-politics-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>221408</id>
    <title>Turkey update
</title>
    <description>   Response from Ali Aslan from Zaman included below. He wants to meet with
   George and have us publish a "clarification" op-ed on our web site before
   they publish it in their newspapers..
   George, how would you like to proceed? This guy is based in DC.

   Sent from my iPhone
   Begin forwarded message:

     From: "Ali Aslan" &lt;aslan@alihalit.com&gt;
     Date: September 2, 2010 7:33:30 AM EDT
     To: "'Reva Bhalla'" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: RE: Request

     Dear Reva,
     I'm writing this letter after my consultations with top editors of Zaman
     and
     Today's Zaman on how to pursue with Dr. Friedman's request. I
     understand your representative in Turkey has also approached Zaman.
     We appreciate Dr. Friedman's interest in writing an Op-Ed for us. In
     principle, there should be no problem with that. But we think Zaman
     should
     not be the first avenue for such a clarification. The priority should be
     given to Stratfor subscribers and other audience in the West who have
     been
     immensely misled with your report. They deserve a clarification and
     hopefully a correction more than our audience in Turkey. We might always
     republish Mr. Friedman's piece after it appears in your website and
     circulated to your subscribers, provided that it meets our editorial
     policy
     standards.
     My editors are taking this issue very seriously; hence they have
     encouraged
     me to meet with Dr. Friedman personally to convey some of our concerns
     with
     the report. We believe such a dialogue could help Mr. Friedman better
     understand our position and kindly address them in his clarification,
     setting the tone for future Stratfor reports which would strike the
     right
     balance.  Please let me know if you can facilitate such a meeting or
     advise
     me how to proceed with this request.
     Your report depicts Turkey divided into secularist and Islamist camps
     and
     you clearly put our newspaper in the latter category -which we strongly
     reject- since you have labeled Zaman 'Gulenist' and in your eyes Gulen
     movement is 'Islamist'. It's a gross injustice. Our newspaper and
     readership
     body may even suffer from legal implications both in Turkey and
     elsewhere,
     given the fact that 'Islamist' is a popular label often used for radical
     movements and terrorists such as Osama bin Laden as well. That makes
     Zaman a
     direct party rather than a mere intellectual interlocutor in this
     debate.
     Therefore, we keep all our rights reserved.
     I look forward to hearing from you on our meeting request with Dr.
     Friedman.
     Thank you for your help and cooperation in advance.
     Best regards,
     Ali Aslan
     Washington Correspondent
     Zaman
     -----Original Message-----
     From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Wednesday, September 01, 2010 10:58 AM
     To: Ali Aslan
     Subject: Request
     Dear Ali,
     I hope you are doing well. I am writing to you with a request. Dr.  
     George Friedman would like to write an op-ed for Zaman to explain our  
     position. Is this something you would publish?
     My very best,
     Reva
</description>
    <date>2010-09-02 14:24:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-03 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/221408_turkey-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>224103</id>
    <title>RE: Private Meeting/Luncheon with Governor of the Saudi general Investment Authority
</title>
    <description>   yes, I ain't going.  I hate towel heads

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Monday, March 09, 2009 9:02 AM
   To: Fred Burton
   Subject: Re: Private Meeting/Luncheon with Governor of the Saudi general
   Investment Authority
   thanks, Fred! can i go to this in your place?
   On Mar 9, 2009, at 9:00 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

      

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Motamedi, Yasmin [mailto:YMotamedi@USChamber.com] 
     Sent: Monday, March 09, 2009 8:59 AM
     To: Motamedi, Yasmin
     Subject: Private Meeting/Luncheon with Governor of the Saudi general
     Investment Authority

To view this email as a web page, go here.                                       

     I hope this email finds you well.  By way of introduction, I am the
     Executive Director for the U.S. Chamber Commerce, Middle East and Africa
     Affairs program. 
     I wanted to take a moment to introduce myself, but also wanted to bring
     to your attention that on the 23rd of March, 2009, the U.S. Chamber of
     Commerce is hosting Governor Amr Al-Dabbagh, Chairman, Saudi
     Arabia General Investment Authority (SAGIA).  David Chavern, the
     Chamber's Chief Operating Office will be hosting this event, along with
     General Daniel Christman, Senior Counselor to President, U.S. Chamber of
     commerce.  Corporate sponsors will have a chance to meet privately with
     the Governor, prior to the luncheon where the Governor will give a
     speech. 
     I am attaching the invitation to the event, as well as the sponsorship
     brochure, for your review and consideration. 
     If you would like to discuss this further, or if you need additional
     details, please do not hesitate to contact me. 
     Thank you for your consideration.
     Have a nice day. 
     Regards,
     Yasmin Motamedi
     Yasmin Motamedi 
     Executive Director 
     Middle East and Africa Affairs 
     United States Chamber of Commerce 
     1615 H Street, N.W. 
     Washington, D.C. 20062-2000 
     Tel: +1 202.463.5671
     Fax: +1 202.463.3114
     Email: ymotamedi@uschamber.com
     http://www.uschamber.com/international/mideast
     : 
     This e-mail and any attachments contain information from the US Chamber
     of Commerce and intended solely for the use of the named recipient(s).
     This e-mail may contain privileged and/or confidential communications.
     Any dissemination by anyone other than an intended recipient is
     prohibited. If you are not a named recipient, you are prohibited from
     any further viewing of the e-mail or any attachments or from making any
     use of the e-mail or attachments. If you have received this e-mail in
     error, notify the sender immediately and delete the e-mail, any
     attachments, and all copies from any drives or storage media and destroy
     any printouts.  E-mail transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure or
     error-free as information could be intercepted, corrupted, lost,
     destroyed, arrive late or incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender
     therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the
     contents of this message, which arise as a result of e-mail
     transmission. If verification is required please request a hard-copy
     version.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

mideast-afr_banner081223                                                         
                     uscc_logo_100x100                  SAGIA                    
                                                                                 
                         The U.S. Chamber of Commerce                            
                                                                                 
                        Is pleased to Invite you to a                            
                                                                                 
                                    Luncheon                                     
                                                                                 
                                     with                                        
                                                                                 
                   His Excellency Amr bin Abdullah Al-Dabbagh                    
                                                                                 
                      Governor and Chairman of the Board,                        
                                                                                 
               Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority (SAGIA)                
                                                                                 
                             Monday, March 23, 2009                              
                             1:00 p.m. - 2:15 p.m.                               
                                                                                 
                            U.S. Chamber of Commerce                             
                          International Hall of Flags                            
                      1615 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC                        
                                                                                 
                     CLICK HERE FOR R E G I S T R A T I O N                      

         --------------------------------------------------------------

U.S. Chamber of U.S. Chamber of Commerce | 1615 H Street,                        
Commerce        NW | Washington, DC 20062-2000                                   
                www.uschamber.com | www.chamberpost.com                          

This email was sent to: ymotamedi@uschamber.com                                  
                                                                                 
This email was sent by: U.S. Chamber of Commerce                                 
1615 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20062-2000                                      
                                                                                 
We respect your right to privacy - view our policy                               
Manage Subscriptions | Update Profile | One-Click Unsubscribe                    

     &lt;SAGIA Sponsorship Form.pdf&gt;&lt;SAGIA Invitation.pdf&gt;
</description>
    <date>2009-03-09 15:03:51</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-20 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/224103_re-private-meeting-luncheon-with-governor-of-the-saudi.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>233212</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - US/UK/French view on Libya operation
</title>
    <description>   from a closed door mtg with a few US, one UK and one French air force
   colonels
   USAF could not be more thrilled with the resolution. They are practically
   jumping out of their seats to do this operation --- it's a dream op, as
   they call it - flat terrain, close to the coast, easy targets. no prob. 
   What's funny is they're only looking at the 'op' as preventing Ghadafi
   from retaking Benghazi. These guys aren't the decision-makers, obviously,
   but the US guys are simply not looking at the 'what's next' question. They
   brush it off as, we'll get the rebel forces into a mean fighting force,
   they'll handle the rest.  We took a group of rag tag Afghans who were
   repressed into nothing and turned them into fighters, why can't we do it
   with Libyans. (uhh...)  They were amazed at my skepticism.
   The Egyptians are on the ground, arming and training the rebels. 
   From their perspective this whole operation is a UK-French-driven
   campaign. The US was in many ways pushed into it. The resolution was
   almost completely drafted by the Brits.
   The UK guy says UK is driven by energy interests in this campaign. BP
   post-oil spill is suffering in US&lt; other options are to expand in Siberia
   (problems with Russia), Vietnam and .. libya.  They see a Ghadafi ouster
   as the best way to meet their energy interests.
   The French are more complicated.  They dont' need the energy. The French
   had a multi-billion dollar contract signed with Ghadafi for 40 Rafale
   jets, that was going to be the saving grace for the French defense
   industry. Then the French (so he claims) hear about AQIM threats backed by
   Ghadafi on French targets, and they got pissed. Sarkozy painted himself in
   a corner. More than that, though, (and this is what the british and the
   french guy agreed on,) was that this was France really, really wanting to
   show that it can DO this. To prove its relevance.
   The Germans are opposed, but they all commented on how Germany abstained.
   Germany has the stigma of being too close to Russia these days and they
   think Merkel is trying to balance a bit more with the US and plus wanted
   to look good in a leadership position in the UNSC (acting responsibly,
   etc. instead of flat out voting against.)
   The French guy was pissed b/c, as they claim, the French and the Brits and
   the US air force all ready to go. They can start bombing within hours.
   But, they started bitching about the petty bureaucracy.  The US Navy now
   wants to make sure it gets involved and are saying Tuesday to get into
   position, maybe Wed start the operation
   ** Note - George believes this is the US deliberately buying time and
   tryign to bluff ghadafi into a negotiation. They don't want this war.
   Certainly Gates doesn't.
   This has to be a US=-led operation. No question.  All their excrcises and
   the way NATO is configured only allows for a US-led operation. They have
   yet to sort out all the ohter command and control issues. It sounds like
   it'll be a giant mess.
   There's also some fighting going on over what anti-air defense systems to
   employ since the US has some new fancy stuff and they want to 'give it
   away' or reveal their capabilities in something like this.  This is all
   central European air defenses anyway. They seem extremely confident in the
   intel they have on EADs.  Not so much about who's who in the opposiiton
   (but let the agency, SF guys, allies like Egypt worry about that.)
   So, all in all, a lot of stereotypes confirmed. The Air Force is trying to
   jump the gun, saying piece of cake, we got this, who cares about what
   happens next.  I'm sure the army is thinking you're out of your mind.
   we're not getting ourselves into this.  US appears to be buying time and
   NATO unity on this operation is not assured. NATO may deploy a few jets -
   keeping close to the mandate of 'protecting civilians' - if Ghadafi
   doesn't shoot, NATO won't shoot (french guy seemed to be pretty clear that
   the French wouldn't act if Q held to the ceasefire.)
   So... maybe we'll have a weekend? I probably just jinxed us.
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 07:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/233212_insight-us-uk-french-view-on-libya-operation-.html</permalink>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>242426</id>
    <title>Romanian individual paid subs.xls
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2010-11-12 23:46:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 17:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/242426_romanian-individual-paid-subs-xls-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gibbons@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>gibbons@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/16/16473_romanian individual paid subs.xls</path><size>39424</size><md5></md5><sha1>036eca39de75f78d2cb390bd58b1d2d5719e1822</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>257534</id>
    <title>Fwd: Thank you (please do not publish this email on your website)
</title>
    <description>   A letter from a reader.  I thought you'd all appreciate it.

   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: Thank you (please do not publish this email on your website) 
      Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2011 20:38:15 -0500                              
      From: James F Smith                                                
        To: letters@stratfor.com &lt;letters@stratfor.com&gt;                  

   Dear Mr. Friedman and Stratfor Team,

    

   My background is CIA and our company is comprised of former DOD, CIA and
   former law enforcement personnel. We provide services for those same
   groups in the form of training, security and information collection.

    

   As such, I am routinely asked to make guest appearance on various national
   / international television and radio programs to discuss issues of
   national security, intelligence, counter-terrorism and related matters.

    

   My intent is to thank you for your organization's excellent service of
   intelligence reporting and analysis. Outstanding just doesn't cut it -
   professionally competent, salient, germane, concise are all descriptors
   that describe your organization's work product. I routinely refer to your
   site prior to on-camera appearances to do a sanity-check on my talking
   points.

    

   Keep up the great work ladies and gentlemen. You're doing a great service
   to your subscribers.

    

   Respectfully,

    

   Jamie

    

   (as I requested above, please do not reprint or publish this email - thank
   you.)

    

    

   Jamie Smith

   SCG, LLC

   www.scginternational.com

   jamie@scginternational.com

   +1 757 469 9512 m

   +1 757 390 3356 o

   +1 703 995 4550 f

   1369 Laskin Road, Suite 5

   Virginia Beach, Virginia 23451, USA

    

   U.S. Veteran Owned &amp; Operated

   The information in this communication and any attachments herein are
   confidential and may be legally privileged. It is intended solely for the
   use of the individual or entity to whom it is addressed and others
   authorized to receive it. This email may also contain information in
   reference to certain commodities that are not able to be exported without
   a valid license issued by the U.S. Department of State - Directorate of
   Defense Trade Controls, as prescribed in the International Traffic in Arms
   Regulations (ITAR), Title 22, Code of Federal Regulation, Parts 120-130.
   If you are not the intended recipient you are hereby notified that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution or taking action in reliance of the
   contents of this information is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful.

    
</description>
    <date>2011-02-16 04:49:42</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-19 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/257534_fwd-thank-you-please-do-not-publish-this-email-on-your.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>262159</id>
    <title>Please Invoice TUSIAD $150,000 ($75K initial fee today)
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-03-24 15:46:13</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-11 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/262159_please-invoice-tusiad-150-000-75k-initial-fee-today-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>oconnor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>george.friedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Don.kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>cs@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>wright@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kelly.tryce@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>susan.copeland@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>rob.bassetti@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>meredith.friedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>holly.sparkman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>fernando.jaimes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/9/9718_Proposal - TUS.pdf</path><size>770636</size><md5></md5><sha1>c9cb692b5eff7c79770e31c66615780984fea2f2</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>274107</id>
    <title>RE: Confederation - Turkey
</title>
    <description>   I sent you an email summary that I had Reva give me so I could follow it
   better. Take a look at that and then let me know when you're available. I
   can do it in the next half hour if you can.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Kamran Bokhari [mailto:bokhari@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, March 18, 2010 4:47 PM
   To: 'Meredith Friedman'
   Subject: RE: Confederation - Turkey

   That would be good. When did you want to meet on this?

    

   From: Meredith Friedman [mailto:mfriedman@stratfor.com]
   Sent: March-18-10 5:27 PM
   To: 'Kamran Bokhari'
   Subject: RE: Confederation - Turkey

    

   I hadn't planned for Reva to have contact with potential confederation
   issues until pretty much the last minute when we hadn't gotten anywhere
   with your guy so actually asked her to call David when she was in Turkey.
   But I'd like to talk to you and fill you in on what she found out and who
   she met with there re confederation.

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Kamran Bokhari [mailto:bokhari@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, March 18, 2010 3:21 PM
   To: 'Meredith Friedman'
   Subject: RE: Confederation - Turkey

   Oh, ok. I wasn't aware of your dealings through Reva. I knew she was going
   to have source meetings but didn't know you had tasked her on
   confederation related issues.

    

   As to the issue of needing Sabah and Zaman, I think we need to have
   perspectives from both sides of the political faultline in Turkey. So we
   should go with both Hurriyet and one of the other two. Who would be
   handling Hurriyet?

    

   The other thing is that I have been pressing my contact on this quite a
   bit. And now if we pull back it will look bad. Kinda like what happened
   when I went to Turkey back in '07 and we were looking to hire a country
   director for the SRM project. I got a bunch of resumes and then that plan
   never materialized. It created an awkward situation.

    

   Whether we go with Sabah or Zaman I think we should approach this through
   my contact since he is a senior official and close to the leadership of
   both groups. Besides I have had him working on it well before Reva's trip.
    

    

   I can definitely delegate responsibility to someone else if need be and
   maintain oversight on the flow of information. Right now we are still
   struggling to get these deals operational. Once they are then it is just a
   matter of making sure every week that they are sending info and tasking
   them. Kinda like how I handle sources.

    

   From: Meredith Friedman [mailto:mfriedman@stratfor.com]
   Sent: March-18-10 3:56 PM
   To: 'Kamran Bokhari'
   Subject: RE: Confederation - Turkey

    

   I need to update you on Reva's meetings and our plans as well. I just got
   an email from David as I'd written to him last night. We are planning a
   trip there as well...early June.

    

   Basically I had Reva call David while she was there and they had dinner -
   I needed to know why the silence from him. He explained a lot about their
   problems and actually is now more comfortable in moving ahead with the
   collaboration. They have others as well so we're not the only one they're
   partnering with. So Reva met wtih him as well as with folks from Today's
   Zaman and Cihan the owners. Would we want Saban and Today's Zaman? I was
   pulling out all the plugs since we weren't getting any traction...now
   we're getting traction in all places it seems. I wonder if since Reva met
   with the Zaman guys so they know more about us already we should go with
   them? If you feel a need to follow through on Sabah as well we can do that
   too. As long as you can handle all these contacts/sources. Who works for
   you who could help on some of them? I have Lauren handing off the Kyiv
   Post to Eugene just because she has several other r'ships already. Is
   there someone in MESA we could train to handle a Sabah or Zaman under your
   oversight?

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Kamran Bokhari [mailto:bokhari@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, March 18, 2010 2:29 PM
   To: 'Meredith Friedman'
   Subject: RE: Confederation - Turkey

   Both Sabah and Zaman groups are pro-govt. My main Turkish contact (the
   adviser to the pm) suggested either of the two. He said he would first
   contact Sabah and if that didn't work he would go for Zaman. For now it
   seems like Sabah is working. I am all for having more than one. Hurriyet
   is actually much better qualitatively given that they have been around
   more longer. We will need to get with David Judson on that. I myself plan
   to be in Turkey for a week in May.

    

   From: Meredith Friedman [mailto:mfriedman@stratfor.com]
   Sent: March-18-10 3:01 PM
   To: 'Kamran Bokhari'
   Subject: RE: Confederation - Turkey

    

   Where does Sabah Group fit politically? Reva also met with folks at both
   Hurriyet and Today's Zaman so I'm looking at several partners in Turkey to
   balance out the information flow and keep any one side from thinking we're
   working against them by only partnering with the other side. Your
   thoughts? Who owns Sabah group do you know? We have Dogan who owns
   Hurriyet and others and Cihan News Agency who owns Today's Zaman and
   others.  

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Kamran Bokhari [mailto:bokhari@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, March 18, 2010 1:35 PM
   To: 'Meredith Friedman'
   Subject: Confederation - Turkey

   Meredith, my contact emailed me saying that the Sabah Group is interested
   in our proposal and is discussing it internally and will soon get back to
   the contact. Meanwhile, I have not heard back from my guy at Dawn but I
   have pinged him again.

    
</description>
    <date>2010-03-18 22:50:19</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-12 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/274107_re-confederation-turkey-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>274307</id>
    <title>RE: Confederation Projects for Turkey
</title>
    <description>   As I said yesterday you can introduce me by email and I'll handle the
   explanation of what we are interested in doing etc...just think it would
   be appropriate for you to connect us rather than me emailing them cold.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, March 17, 2010 3:05 PM
   To: Meredith Friedman
   Subject: Re: Confederation Projects for Turkey
   cool, this helps
   On Mar 17, 2010, at 3:03 PM, Meredith Friedman wrote:

     This is not about published material, it's about a relationship where we
     can ask questions when there's a critical event in a certain country.
     Here is an outline of a draft initial letter I would send to someone who
     doesn't know STRATFOR very well. I amend it and fit it to each case and
     often leave out parts altogether. AS you can see there is nothing here
     that would bring up the shadow cia reputation. We are clearly producers
     of international affairs news. 
      

     We are looking to develop a relationship with a news organization in
     Ukraine and thought Kyiv Post would be a good potential partner for
     STRATFOR. We are looking for a news organization with which we can
     exchange ideas, information and reports about items of interest to our
     analysts at STRATFOR. In return we would offer you access to our
     analysis, share information and reports and give some exclusive
     interviews to your journalists at Kyiv Post. Ukraine is an important
     country in the region and we would like to be able to access a better
     level of information and understanding by working directly with some of
     Kyiv Post's journalists.

     STRATFOR focuses only on international affairs issues and we do not
     cover areas that many traditional news organizations cover such as
     sports, the arts or advertising. Our focus is on understanding global
     events through the view of geopolitics. We also have a security team
     that analyzes and collects information on issues of security that would
     affect people traveling on business or leisure throughout the world.
     That team focuses on terrorism, drug trafficking, kidnappings and things
     of that nature relating to personal and corporate security.

     What I propose is that we give you a complimentary account to
     STRATFOR.com so you can read for yourself and get better acquainted with
     our products. We would then offer access to a small group of your
     journalists (who you would designate) and would exchange information,
     research and analysis with them. We would provide one point of contact
     here at STRATFOR to work with a main point of contact at your end who
     you would designate.

     The result we are looking for is a deeper understanding of Ukraine and
     the region for STRATFOR's readers. We would hopefully provide your
     readers with a better understanding of areas you are interested in as
     well. This relationship can only increase the excellence of both our
     products and will hopefully lead to further collaboration in the future
     as we get to know and work with each other successfully. I see the first
     stage as the "getting to know" each other phase and strengthening our
     products to improve our news gathering and production.

     If you are interested in moving forward on this idea I will send you a
     draft agreement that you can look over and add your own comments or
     revisions. Meanwhile, would you like to have a STRATFOR account set up
     in your name so you can access our analyses and reports? If there is
     someone else who should have access in addition to you please send me
     their email addresses as well.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Wednesday, March 17, 2010 2:54 PM
     To: Meredith Friedman
     Subject: Re: Confederation Projects for Turkey
     sure, i was just asking how you explain the collaboration because the
     zaman guys are an interesting case... we'll have to be careful with this
     shadow CIA reputation
     will also help me reach out to other potential confederation partners if
     I can understand better how you explain the collaboration. otherwise a
     lot of ppl come back with 'we publish everything on our web site'
     On Mar 17, 2010, at 2:50 PM, Meredith Friedman wrote:

       Introduce me as the VP of Communications for STRATFOR and say that I
       would like to discuss with them the idea of a collaboration between
       STRATFOR and X to exchange information, research and ideas that are
       useful to our analysts and to their journalists. I'll get into the
       rest. Does that work?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
       Sent: Wednesday, March 17, 2010 2:42 PM
       To: Meredith Friedman
       Subject: Re: Confederation Projects for Turkey
       yeah, it seems like you and George met with the nationalist/secularist
       types, but the Gulen/AKP faction is extremely important as well.  I'll
       follow up with the Cihan/Zaman guys and the EnergyReport contact. can
       you send me a quick brief on how you typically explain the information
       exchange to these agencies?  that will help me set this up for you.
       On Mar 17, 2010, at 2:38 PM, Meredith Friedman wrote:

         I'm going to follow up with David Judson then...and what about the
         Today's Zaman guys? I just checked and of all the several dozen
         journalists we met there and who interviewed George there were none
         from Zaman. Do you want to email the main person thee who you think
         I should follow up with and cc me and introduce us?  You can do the
         same with the best person at Energy Report as well.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
         Sent: Tuesday, March 16, 2010 10:43 PM
         To: Meredith Friedman
         Subject: Confederation Projects for Turkey
         CONFEDERATION PROJECTS FOR TURKEY
         Cihan News Agency -- owns Zaman, Today's Zaman and other major
         Turkish media agencies
         Cihan provides news to: CNN International, BBC, NBC, MTV, CBS, ABC,
         Al-Jazeera, Abu Dhabi Tv, ARD, ZDF, SAT 1, TF1, Canal +, RAI, Tve,
         Antena 3, TV2 Denmark, Nos Tv, MJTV, NTV Japan, KBS, NTV Russia,
         TV6, IRIB, MEGA Channel, Bloomberg, MSMBC, ANS, Lider Tv and others.
         They have staff in Central Asia, Mideast, Balkans, Europe, South
         America, Africa, Far East. Permanent offices in places like Gaza,
         Kabul, Arbil.
         Political ideology:  Gulenist/loyal to ruling AKP
         My contact:  Abdulhamit Bilici (a.bilici@zaman.com.tr) - General
         Director of Cihan News Agency and columnist for Zaman
         Today's Zaman -- English-language version of Zaman; direct
         competitor to Hurriyet
         Has partnership with British daily The Times
         Political ideology: Gulenist/loyal to ruling AKP
         My contact: Bulent Kenes (b.kenes@todayszaman.com) - Editor in Chief
         of Today's Zaman  (both he and Bilici are extremely influential
         within the Gulen movement.)
         Additional contact:  Ali Aslan aslan@alihalit.com - columnist for
         Today's Zaman, based in Washington, DC
         Note -- I had a preliminary discussion with Mr. Bilici and Mr. Kenes
         about a partnership when I met with them at Zaman HQ in Istanbul. I
         also know their primary contact in DC. They would need a bit more
         explanation and coaxing. Their immediate response was that they
         publish all the information that they get on their Web site. What we
         would have to better explain is that we're looking for a direct
         partnership. If we have a deal with Hurriyet, then we should also
         have a deal with Cihan/Zaman to balance out politically.
         Dogan News Agency -  owns Hurriyet, Turkish Daily News and others
         Direct competitor to Cihan News Agency
         Political ideology:  A lot more neutral, but more in line with the
         nationalist/secularist camp
         Contacts:  Haluk Tukel - CEO of Dogan media group and
         Secretary-General of TUSIAD - main business association dominated by
         nationalist/secularists;  David Judson, editor in chief of Hurriyet
         - david.judson@tdn.com.tr;  Taylan Bilgic - managing editor of
         Hurriyet - taylan.bilgic@tdn.com.tr
          
         Note -- had dinner with David Judson, who explained why he was
         hesitant before to sign a deal with STRATFOR since Dogan media has
         been under attack by the Gulenists and AKP and are facing major tax
         evasion fines. They didnt want to also get branded as working with a
         'shadow CIA'. Now he feels they have enough partnerships under his
         belt to move forward with STRATFOR.  My meeting with Haluk Tukel got
         cancelled last minute, but we're in touch via email and I think I'll
         be able to meet him when he's in DC in a couple weeks.
         EnergyReport  - An energy-focused magazine written in Turkish and
         English. Launched January 2010, monthly circulation. 
         Contacts:  Gulcin Fatma Kabasakalli (fkabasakalli@yahoo.com, +90 530
         363 14 84);   Faruk Demir - mfd2030@gmail.com ( 0.530.592 46 09)
         This is a very polished energy publication run by the topmost energy
         expert in Turkey, Faruk Demir and his assistant, Fatma Kabasakalli,
         who is the editor in chief. Faruk Demir was formerly on the Turkish
         national security council. Now he conducts a lot of energy
         negotiations on behalf of Turkey, but keeps a bit of distance from
         the government to give him some flexibility. He and his assistant
         are extremely well-connected. The magazine also has a lot of good
         analysis and insider information. They are already planning on
         publishing one of George's weeklies in their next publication. I'll
         bring a copy of the magazine when I come to Austin next week. If we
         set up a formal partnership with them, we can have regular access to
         the best resources on Turkey's energy relations with Russia,
         Azerbaijan, Europe, Central Asia, US, etc. This would be extremely
         useful for our source efforts.  I met with Faruk and Fatma for lunch
         while in Istanbul and discussed a partnership with Fatma. I will be
         seeing Faruk in DC in a couple weeks.
</description>
    <date>2010-03-18 18:50:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-03 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/274307_re-confederation-projects-for-turkey-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>275566</id>
    <title>RE: Follow up from STRATFOR and visit
</title>
    <description>David -

A trust continuum is a fine description - mostly we want to have access to
someone there who can answer questions we may have when following an issue
or if something critical breaks someone we can call to get details
locally. Often these may be things that do not seem important to you but
are to us- and vice versa - although I mostly see us both focusing on
things we mutually see as important. And having you confirm something,
amplify it or put it in context or tell us we're looking at it the wrong
way is all valuable to us.

I have not yet had a chance to hear of your regionscape project but will
be sure to ask Reva about it. We certainly share your interest in not
getting damaged. I will keep you informed of any other collaborations we
move forward with in Turkey. And anything confidential you share with us
will stay with us. I'm glad you had a chance to visit with Reva. I was
speaking with Kamran yesterday and he is also looking at a trip there in
May he told me. So you may see a few of us from Stratfor in the near
future.

So, next steps. Shall I resend the draft collaboration agreement or do you
still have it? If so, feel free to make any suggested revisions you wish
and send back to me. We can get this signed so we can move forward.

I will also keep you informed of George and my plans regarding our June
visit.

Take care David and I really do look forward to seeing you again and
visiting Istanbul soon.

Best,
Meredith

-----Original Message-----
From: David Judson [mailto:david.judson@tdn.com.tr] 
Sent: Thursday, March 18, 2010 2:38 PMA t
To: Meredith Friedman
Subject: RE: Follow up from STRATFOR and visit

Hi Meredith:

I think this sounds fine. My understanding of the essential model we are
trying to put together is that it is really what I might call a trust
continuum. As I explained to Reva, at the moment we have nothing
particularly concrete to offer beyond what we put on our web site. We have
an idea for an Economist style intelligence unit, shelved since late 2008
when the world became a bit darker, but that remains far from concrete.
So, the value we can offer is to confirm something for you, or amplify or
try and draw a bit of context. Farmers chatting about seed varieties over
the fence, so to speak. Kind of what reasonable should be doing anyway,
not something that necessarily requires reciprocity. In short, I like you
and George. And I like Reva. Your note describes the terms well. I briefed
the editors here on the essence of this after speaking to Reva. So we are
at your service.

Again informally, we are trying to come to a better understanding of our
"near abroad" in particular. Reva may have spoken to you of our
"Regionscape" project which unlike our intelligence unit is very much
alive. Looking over our shoulder, any advice you might give us on this
would be much appreciated.

The concern we share is not getting damaged, having something slip out of
this continuum. This is not something I fear. I am, of course, aware of
who your other potential collaborator is. I am quite sure you can keep
confidences on anything we might share and I know matters will not travel
to these folks. And that is really my only concern, which I say has
effectively been ameliorated. So we're in business.

I should emphasize that the competition between ourselves and the Zaman
group is rather assymetrical. They like to perceive us as a competitor. As
Reva's notes will reflect, they certainly have plenty of nasty things to
say about us, and about me in fact. All which I hope I answered. They do
this publicly from time to time as well. Which we do not. And we wish them
all the best, privately and publicly. We operate in two very different
conceptual planes. I am not sure how best to describe this, but it is
certainly not competition.

The dates you suggest should be fine from here. I have been trying to
organize my own trip to the East Coast but distractions keep popping up.
And while I would like to visit a good friend recently here from Dallas,
that's at last as far as fall. So late May or June will probably be our
best bet. But if we can be of assistance in the interim, please let me
know. By the way, your fellow Emre here is a classmate of one of our
reporters. This might prove useful in some way.

And give my regards to Reva. I enjoyed our dinner very much. And also say
hi to George.

Best


David



________________________________
From: Meredith Friedman [mfriedman@stratfor.com]
Sent: Thursday, March 18, 2010 4:50 PM
To: David Judson
Subject: Follow up from STRATFOR and visit


Hello David -

Reva is back from her trip to Turkey and has filled me in on her various
meetings. She really enjoyed her time in Turkey and said she loves it the
most of any country she's visited yet...and she gets around quite a bit.

We discussed the issues you've been facing regarding a collaboration with
us and I fully understand. It seems out best approach is to have several
collaborations in Turkey so that we get all points of view and do not
alienate one political perspective over the other. Since we aim for
objectivity that is fine with us and I will pursue that goal. I understand
from Reva that you would be fine with us having several partners in Turkey
as well. Please let me know if that is not the case.

We can move forward any way you would suggest. I have yet to approach the
other news organization Reva suggested but will email them today to begin
a discussion with them about a collaboration as well. We do not plan to
publicize these collaborations anyway, so if you are comfortable moving
forward on our partnership with Hurriyet we can do so or we can wait until
and do them both around the same time. Again, at this stage we are not
looking for you to redistribute our content at all but for more of an
exchange of information, research and some analysis between our analysts
and your journalists.

George and I are planning a visit to Istanbul in early June and I wanted
to give you a heads up to see if you will be there at that time? I'm
thinking somewhere between May 31- June 5. Please let me know if you will
be in Istanbul then so we can meet up again.

I look forward to your reply.

Best regards,

Meredith


Meredith Friedman
VP, Communications
STRATFOR
www.stratfor.com&lt;http://www.stratfor.com/&gt;
512 744 4301 - office
512 426 5107 - cell
&lt;mailto:PR@Stratfor.com&gt;
</description>
    <date>2010-03-19 22:15:27</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/275566_re-follow-up-from-stratfor-and-visit-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>david.judson@tdn.com.tr</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>275955</id>
    <title>RE: From Ibrahim 
</title>
    <description>   OK Great - I'll wait till Tuesday to make flight reservations inside
   of Turkey then. Thanks much Kamran.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Kamran Bokhari [mailto:bokhari@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, May 07, 2010 1:52 PM
   To: 'Meredith Friedman'
   Subject: RE: From Ibrahim

   He just got back to me saying he will coordinate the dates and get back to
   me on Monday.

    

   From: Meredith Friedman [mailto:mfriedman@stratfor.com]
   Sent: May-07-10 2:36 PM
   To: 'Kamran Bokhari'
   Subject: RE: From Ibrahim

    

   Yes it really would:)

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Kamran Bokhari [mailto:bokhari@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, May 07, 2010 1:35 PM
   To: 'Meredith Friedman'
   Subject: RE: From Ibrahim

   Understood. Would be really cool if we can get meetings with both the fm
   and the president. But let's see how the dates shape on their end.

    

   From: Meredith Friedman [mailto:mfriedman@stratfor.com]
   Sent: May-07-10 2:29 PM
   To: 'Kamran Bokhari'
   Subject: RE: From Ibrahim

    

   Plan would be to return to Istanbul late on June 3 if possible.  Thanks
   much.

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Kamran Bokhari [mailto:bokhari@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, May 07, 2010 1:27 PM
   To: 'Meredith Friedman'
   Subject: RE: From Ibrahim

   Cool. Emailing him now. Let's see what he says about the dates.

    

   From: Meredith Friedman [mailto:mfriedman@stratfor.com]
   Sent: May-07-10 2:25 PM
   To: 'Kamran Bokhari'
   Subject: RE: From Ibrahim

    

   Oops... I just saw this after sending the previous email. Can we lock down
   which dates we can do these meetings? We can be in Ankara June 2 or June
   3. if we can schedule them on those two days that would work fine for our
   itinerary.

    

   Let's plan on doing these since he's got agreement on them and if at all
   possible do them on June 2-3.

    

   That would be wonderful.

    

   Meredith

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Kamran Bokhari [mailto:bokhari@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, May 07, 2010 11:45 AM
   To: 'Meredith Friedman'
   Subject: From Ibrahim
   Importance: High

    

   From: ibrahimkalin@gmail.com
   Sent: May-07-10 12:44 PM
   To: Kamran Bokhari
   Subject: Re: Update on Friedmans

    

   Dear kamran.
   I spoke to foreign minister davutoglu and he agreed to meet the friedmans.
   In fact, we were checking his schedule for an appointment. I was also
   going to check with president gul for a meeting.

   We could also set up meetings with other officials, mps and thin tanks. We
   could have them give a public lecture as well.

   But if they prefer to postpone their visit to november, that's fine too.
   We will try but can't promise the meetings with the president and the fm
   in november.
   Regards,
   Ibrahim

   Bu e-posta, Turkcell BlackBerry ile go:nderilmistir.
</description>
    <date>2010-05-07 21:15:31</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-13 17:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/275955_re-from-ibrahim-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>276754</id>
    <title>RE: Notes on the meeting with confederation source - Sabah PoC
</title>
    <description>   Emre - this is perfect and exactly why we need you working with our
   confederation partners. I think I understand why your relationship with
   Alparslan at Sabah is more personal and cordial than with Guler at HDN
   because Alparslan is, at root, a journalist who follows the issues and
   knows the details even though he also runs the shop. Remember, Guler is a
   business development manager so she's not the person who knows the details
   of international issues as say Taylan or one of the other journalists
   does. Gulan's role is sort of like mine or Jen's where she is there to
   oversee and manage the relationship and make sure questions get answered
   but I think you need to still develop a stronger personal relationship
   with Taylan and the other guy who I met and whose name I keep forgetting.
    
   I would suggest having a lunch with Gulan and Taylan and going through the
   same type of discussion with them on how we can help them more. Also
   please thank them for the great article they put out from the interview
   with George on our last day there. Did you see it? I think Alparslan is at
   the same point David Judson was at when we arrived there - they want the
   collaboration but realize there's more to it than one managing editor can
   handle himself and you worked through that problem with him at your lunch
   and I expect now he will find that very smart person to do the actual work
   under his supervision. David mentioned they have a very smart woman there
   - Bilcek or some such name - and I think she's been reading STRATFOR on
   her own for a while. But let's see who he chooses.
    
   We may have you visit with our other partners in Georgia and Azerbaijan at
   some future point if needed. Pity you don't speak Russian...our APA editor
   in chief doesn't speak English - just Azeri and Russian. But you'd manage
   fine with a translator. Anyway I am very pleased with the outcome of your
   lunch meeting. It's what is needed to make these partnerships effective
   and valuable for them as we discussed on our call yesterday.
    
   Now let's see if they follow through and get that new POC at Sabah.
    
   Meredith
    
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Emre Dogru [mailto:emre.dogru@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Tuesday, June 22, 2010 8:15 AM
   To: Meredith Friedman
   Cc: Jennifer Richmond; scott stewart
   Subject: Notes on the meeting with confederation source - Sabah PoC
   I had a lunch today with our Sabah PoC Alparslan and a to-be diplomacy
   correspondent Mehmet Ali (who currently hangs out with Alparslan as a part
   of his training).

   We talked about recent political developments and than ways to improve the
   cooperation between Sabah and Stratfor. I explained him in detail what we
   do, what kind of information we collect and how we analyze them. We talked
   about the differences between Stratfor's work and journalism, but also the
   valuable information that we can share. I gave examples (such as Gaza
   flotilla crisis, Kyrgyzstan etc.) to show him how we do a great job in
   both collecting and analyzing information especially from the regions
   where Sabah may face difficulties in getting insight. I also advised him
   to ask Stratfor analysts' opinions on a variety of issues. I also talked
   him about our plans to build a new website to publish articles from other
   sources and how this could help Sabah to increase its international
   profile. I told him that we've partners in other countries, such as
   Azerbaijan and Georgia, from which we can get information that Sabah asks
   for. I think he has a much better idea now on what issues/countries Sabah
   can benefit from Stratfor and he seemed very interested in getting these
   information from us.

   I asked him his opinion on how things go on Sabah's side. He says he
   thinks Sabah's mechanism (in cooperation with Stratfor) does not work as
   efficient as it should be. This is because he is usually out of the office
   and cannot communicate with the people who work in the office. For
   instance last time I called him to ask whether Turkey used UAVs he was on
   a trip to Cyprus and it took more time than usual to get me the
   information. He will probably find a smart-cookie who will manage our
   relation with different desks of Sabah because the main problem that they
   face now is the lack of cooperation among their departments. He says all
   departments of Sabah will be notified about our role with Sabah, and they
   will provide all information anytime to this person (who Alparslan will
   choose) who will ask on behalf of us. This will be especially useful when
   we ask something that can be found in Ankara. Of course, Alparslan will
   supervise the mechanism and make sure that it works well.

   One thing I've noticed in meetings with HDN and Sabah people is that two
   things help to get our sources' attention. First, is to show during
   discussions that I'm personally on top of international events. Second is
   to explain in detail what Stratfor does and what we can provide them. I
   can also say that I've a more personal and cordial relationship with
   Alparslan now (more than HDN PoC Guler).

   Let me know if you've questions.

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-06-22 15:43:11</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/276754_re-notes-on-the-meeting-with-confederation-source-sabah-poc-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>276784</id>
    <title>FW: YOUR ARRIVAL TO ISTANBUL
</title>
    <description>    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Meredith Friedman
   Sent: Saturday, May 29, 2010 4:56 PM
   To: Ozan Batarc,ikar
   Cc: 'Mu:jdat Uluc,am'; ibrahimkalin@gmail.com; 'meredith friedman'
   Subject: RE: YOUR ARRIVAL TO ISTANBUL
   Dear Ozan:
    
   Mr Ibrahim Kalin mentioned that he would arrange a car and driver for any
   of our needs while in Istanbul. I know you are planning to pick us up upon
   our arrival at Istanbul STt airport on Monday afternoon. I need to warn
   you that we have a lot of luggage so I dont' know the type of car you will
   be driving but we have 3 large suitcases and 2 carry on bags (we are
   traveling for about a month non stop!!)  Are you also arranging for the
   other transportation needs we have? If so I am going to tell you what is
   confirmed at the moment.
    
   On Tuesday, June 1 we should not have any needs at this moment as we will
   have several meetings at our hotel.
    
   On Wednesday, June 2 we have 3 meetings confirmed and then need to get to
   the airport for a flight to Ankara at 11:55p.m. so we probably need to go
   straight from the Public Lecture meeting to the airport. I will get the
   address for Is Towers and the location of the Public Lecture and send to
   you as well. Or if you are not handling these transportation needs please
   put me in touch with whoever is handling them.
    
   Thank you for all your generous help.
    
   Best,
   Meredith Friedman
   001 512 426 5107
    
    

   Wednesday, June 2

    

    

   12:00 - 1:30p.m.

    

   Lunch meeting at ISBANK - Is Towers

    

   with Mr Ozince. Mr Koc and Mr Turkakin

    

    

    

   2:30p.m. or 3:00p.m. (exact time will be confirmed in the next day or
   so) Meeting at Sabah

    

   SABAH GAZETESI

   BARBAROS BULVARI, NO: 153

   BALMUMCU, BESIKTAS, ISTANBUL

    

   ALPARSLAN AKKUS (alparslan.akkus@sabah.com.tr) - Foreign News Editor

   +90 212 354 3424

   Mr. Albayrak, Editor

    

    

    

   7:00-9:00p.m. Public Lecture: Topic "Turkey and the Imbalance of US
   Foreign Policy."

    

    

   From Istanbul IST Airport to Ankara depart at 11:55p.m.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Ozan Batarc,ikar [mailto:ozan@selenagroup.com]
   Sent: Friday, May 28, 2010 1:45 AM
   To: mfriedman@stratfor.com
   Cc: 'Mu:jdat Uluc,am'; ibrahimkalin@gmail.com
   Subject: YOUR ARRIVAL TO ISTANBUL

   Dear Mr. &amp; Mrs. Friedman,

    

   Warm greetings and best wishes from Istanbul.

   Please kindly note that; me or one of my friends will be there at the
   airport to meet you with a signboard with your name on it. If you miss our
   representative at the airport please feel free to contact me. My GSM
   number is 0090 532 796 62 26.

    

   Best regards,

   OZAN BATARC,IKAR

   SELENA GROUP

   Istanbul Du:nya Ticaret Merkezi

   A1 Blok Kat 8 No 291, 34149

   Yesilko:y - Istanbul / Turkey

   Tel : + 90 212 465 00 90

   Fax : + 90 212 465 65 40

    
</description>
    <date>2010-05-31 00:17:15</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-09 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/276784_fw-your-arrival-to-istanbul-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>meredith.friedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>276899</id>
    <title>Thanking you
</title>
    <description>   Dear Ibrahim -
    
   Just to let you know we had a very good meeting with Sabah just now and
   signed the MoU. We introduced our Turkish STRATFOR representative, Emre
   Dogru, to them and he will coordinate the collaboration as he lives here
   in Istanbul.
    
   Hope all is going well with you.
    
   Best,
   Meredith Friedman
   STRATFOR
   001 512 426 5107
</description>
    <date>2010-06-02 15:38:36</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-12 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/276899_thanking-you-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ibrahimkalin@gmail.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>277400</id>
    <title>Please invoice and charge credit card Booz Allen Hamilton $20,790 - renewal (paid $19,800 last year)
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-03-29 16:02:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/277400_please-invoice-and-charge-credit-card-booz-allen-hamilton-20.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>oconnor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>george.friedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Don.kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>cs@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>wright@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kelly.tryce@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>rob.bassetti@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>holly.sparkman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>fernando.jaimes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/17/17225_Stratfor Servi.pdf</path><size>442546</size><md5></md5><sha1>e1c14ec2bf997854a96462112e12702ab1cc2c8d</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>279991</id>
    <title>RE: Fw: Web query
</title>
    <description>   Don't know the name - will check with Antonia in Bucharest. He says he is
   starting an NGO so isn't working currently for any news organization that
   I can see....so definitely not confederation. Will see if Antonia knows
   anything of him.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: burton@stratfor.com [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, October 21, 2010 7:05 PM
   To: Anya Alfano; Meredith Friedman
   Cc: Korena Zucha; Anya Alfano; Don Kuykendall {6}
   Subject: Re: Fw: Web query
   Meredith ? Thx

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Anya Alfano &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2010 19:42:37 -0400
   To: &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Korena Zucha&lt;korena.zucha@stratfor.com&gt;; Anya
   Alfano&lt;alfano@stratfor.com&gt;; Don Kuykendall {6}&lt;kuykendall@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Fw: Web query
   Is he one of the confederation partners?

   On 10/21/10 7:33 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     Any idea?

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@abraxasapps.com&gt;
     Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2010 19:26:26 -0400
     To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Web query

     Fred -- Have received couple queries from this guy for marketing
     collateral on TrapWire etc. I usually ignore this loose cannon requests,
     but this guy keeps citing STRATFOR as a contact. Do you know him?

     From: Radu Chirculescu [mailto:chircu2k@yahoo.co.uk]
     Sent: Thursday, October 21, 2010 6:16 PM
     To: Michael Maness
     Subject: Re: Your request for information on TrapWire
     Importance: High

         Dear Mr. Maness,

            I find very important to build and keep an constant bridge
     between Romania and it's ally, especially regarding security matters by
     keeping in mind the current geopolitics. We will inform you about our
     NGO's future evolution (CRES &amp; CCPB) and if possible we will desire to
     attend to any open and public presentations about your products in the
     UK and/or United States. As soon as all the aspects will be clear I will
     inform you and Stratfor about our current status.

         For thousands years history did not gave us(Romania) too much rest
     and peace and the current global situation proves it once more.        
         Best regards,

         Radu Chirculescu
         Bucharest, ROMANIA

     -----Original Message-----

     From: info@abraxasapps.com [mailto:info@abraxasapps.com]

     Sent: Thursday, October 21, 2010 5:52 PM

     To: abraxasapps.com Info Request

     Cc: marketing@abraxasapps.com

     Subject: Web site inquiry

     First Name - Radu

     Last Name - Chirculescu

     Title - Mr

     Company - ngo to be developed

     Street Address - Luterana 1 Ap.47

     City - Bucharest

     State - Ilfov

     Zip/Postal Code - 010161

     Country - Romania

     Work Email - chircu2k@yahoo.co.uk

     Phone - 0040721717447

     Referred by -

     Stratfor. I will develop the Romanian Center for Ethics and Strategies
     and The Center for Research and Protection against Bioterrorism. The
     current status is legal registering approval. In 2 weeks to be
     accomplished. Therefor we would need info for products to be used and
     presented in the close future. Best regards, Radu Chirculescu.

     I am interested in: Corporate Brochure, TrapWire Brochure, TrapWire
     Demo, CFATS Brochure, SAW Brochure, DDER Brochure, Please Contact Me

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     NOTICE: This email message and all attachments transmitted with it are
     intended solely for the use of the addressees and may contain legally
     privileged, protected or confidential information. If you have received
     this message in error, please notify the sender immediately by email
     reply and please delete this message from your computer and destroy any
     copies.
</description>
    <date>2010-10-22 03:39:16</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/279991_re-fw-web-query-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anya.alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>280201</id>
    <title>RE: New Sabah POCs
</title>
    <description>   Great thanks Emre. Hopefully we'll have time to meet these editors too
   when we're in Istanbul in November...

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Emre Dogru [mailto:emre.dogru@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Tuesday, September 21, 2010 6:55 AM
   To: Jennifer Richmond; Meredith Friedman
   Subject: New Sabah POCs
   Our POC from Sabah Alparslan Akkus asked me to pass along the new POC
   list. All three are foreign news editors of Sabah and as Alparslan says,
   they will have more time to read and summarize our material to be used by
   Sabah as well as to provide information that we demand as soon as
   possible. The first one on the list, Sule Guner, will be my main POC. I
   will have a meeting with them at their earliest convenience.

   Please let me know when they are added to our subscription list so that I
   can check it with them. Let me know if you've questions.

   Thanks

   SULE GU:NER
   Sule.guner@sabah.com.tr

   BERCAN TUTAR
   Bercan.tutar@sabah.com.tr

   OKAN UMRUK
   Okan.umruk@sabah.com.tr

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-09-21 17:33:03</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/280201_re-new-sabah-pocs-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>280329</id>
    <title>RE: Turkish News Agencies
</title>
    <description>   We have a Turkish partner already if you look at the sheet I sent out -
   it's Hurriyet Daily News - we have a verbal agreement and are waiting to
   get it signed. Kamran already is working with one of their journalists and
   we met David Judson the editor in Chief when we were in Turkey so it's a
   good relationship. Are you suggesting we should not go with this group? We
   can re-evaluate since they haven't signed the agreement yet...but will
   things change there again? Talk to Kamran about this too please.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, November 25, 2009 9:58 AM
   To: Meredith Friedman; George Friedman
   Subject: Turkish News Agencies
   Hi Meredith,
   I've been working on figuring out the Turkish media landscape because
   there are a ton of major changes underway. In a nutshell, the
   Islamist-rooted AKP party has been buying up a bunch of media agencies to
   clamp down on dissent and clip the military's wings. So, it's making the
   major media group - Dogan group - bankrupt (very Russian of them). Media
   in Turkey has lately become extremely political with Hurriyet putting out
   columns on how the AKP is using these investigations to silence the
   military and then other agencies owned by the Islamist group Gulen (hated
   by the military) putting out pro-AKP, anti-military stories.
   We definitely do not want to get caught in the crossfire of this media
   battle. As I was discussing with George earlier, there's a ton of paranoia
   in Turkey over all this and we can't afford to get branded as either
   pro-AKP or pro-military. It'll hurt our source efforts either way.
   So, I've asked Emre to list out all the major agencies and their political
   biases (see below), and we've narrowed down the list to a few that are
   mostly neutral and are quality news services in terms of breadth, depth
   and access.  We decided on Anatolian News Agency, NTVMSNBC. if we go with
   Hurriyet or Taraf we would get good insight from the military perspective,
   but we would need to keep the relationship covert.
   Emre is returning to Turkey next week and can put us in touch with
   whomever we need. He also has a few contacts within these agencies. I'm
   going to sit down and discuss this more with him today to figure out who
   exactly we need to talk to. Will keep you updated on this.
   Thanks,
   Reva
   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Emre Dogru &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: November 25, 2009 9:43:31 AM CST
     To: Middle East AOR &lt;mesa@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: [MESA] Turkish News Agencies
     Reply-To: Middle East AOR &lt;mesa@stratfor.com&gt;
     Newspapers in English
     Zaman / Zaman Daily News: Owned by Gulen, pro-AKP
     Hurriyet Daily News: Owned by Dogan Media Group. anti-AKP and having
     troubles due to tax fine.
     World Bulletin: Islamist-Conservative, pro-AKP

     Newspapers in Turkish
     Dogan Media Group
     Radikal: Social-democrat, mostly neutral
     Hurriyet: Popular, anti-AKP
     Milliyet: Popular, neutral, slightly anti-AKP
     Others
     Taraf: Liberal-Democrat, anti-TSK (Army). Almost all documents we see in
     media about TSK (coup strategies, weaknesses of TSK during PKK
     operations etc.) are published by Taraf.
     NTVMSNBC: Online newspaper owned by Dogus Media Group. Neutral.
     Yeni Cag: Ultra-nationalist
     Yeni Safak: pro-AKP. News director Fehmi Koru is media advisor of PM
     Erdogan.
     Vakit: Islamist, but not pro-AKP because it is closer to banned Welfare
     Party tradition. (Founders of AKP used to be members of Welfare Party.)
     Its successor is  Felicity Party but has no significant vote.
     Firat News Agency: pro-Kurdish/PKK
     Anatolian News Agency: Neutral.
     Sabah: Liberal, owned by Calik Group (The Group that also owns "Genel
     Enerji" that operates in N. Iraq)
     Cumhuriyet: Strictly secular, anti-AKP. Its chief editor Mustafa Balbay
     was investigated in Ergenekon Probe.

 --
 C. Emre Dogru
 STRATFOR Intern
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 +1 512 226 3111
</description>
    <date>2009-11-25 17:31:15</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-12 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/280329_re-turkish-news-agencies-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>281257</id>
    <title>FW: Fw: Web query
</title>
    <description>   This inquiry came in to us and we're trying to figure out if he's anyone
   we've had contact with. The name does not sound familiar to me - he's in
   Bucharest so is this anyone you may have met or had contact with? scroll
   to the bottom email with all his info. Let me know if you know him please.
    
   Meredith

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: burton@stratfor.com [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, October 21, 2010 7:05 PM
   To: Anya Alfano; Meredith Friedman
   Cc: Korena Zucha; Anya Alfano; Don Kuykendall {6}
   Subject: Re: Fw: Web query
   Meredith ? Thx

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Anya Alfano &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2010 19:42:37 -0400
   To: &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Korena Zucha&lt;korena.zucha@stratfor.com&gt;; Anya
   Alfano&lt;alfano@stratfor.com&gt;; Don Kuykendall {6}&lt;kuykendall@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Fw: Web query
   Is he one of the confederation partners?

   On 10/21/10 7:33 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     Any idea?

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@abraxasapps.com&gt;
     Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2010 19:26:26 -0400
     To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Web query

     Fred -- Have received couple queries from this guy for marketing
     collateral on TrapWire etc. I usually ignore this loose cannon requests,
     but this guy keeps citing STRATFOR as a contact. Do you know him?

     From: Radu Chirculescu [mailto:chircu2k@yahoo.co.uk]
     Sent: Thursday, October 21, 2010 6:16 PM
     To: Michael Maness
     Subject: Re: Your request for information on TrapWire
     Importance: High

         Dear Mr. Maness,

            I find very important to build and keep an constant bridge
     between Romania and it's ally, especially regarding security matters by
     keeping in mind the current geopolitics. We will inform you about our
     NGO's future evolution (CRES &amp; CCPB) and if possible we will desire to
     attend to any open and public presentations about your products in the
     UK and/or United States. As soon as all the aspects will be clear I will
     inform you and Stratfor about our current status.

         For thousands years history did not gave us(Romania) too much rest
     and peace and the current global situation proves it once more.        
         Best regards,

         Radu Chirculescu
         Bucharest, ROMANIA

     -----Original Message-----

     From: info@abraxasapps.com [mailto:info@abraxasapps.com]

     Sent: Thursday, October 21, 2010 5:52 PM

     To: abraxasapps.com Info Request

     Cc: marketing@abraxasapps.com

     Subject: Web site inquiry

     First Name - Radu

     Last Name - Chirculescu

     Title - Mr

     Company - ngo to be developed

     Street Address - Luterana 1 Ap.47

     City - Bucharest

     State - Ilfov

     Zip/Postal Code - 010161

     Country - Romania

     Work Email - chircu2k@yahoo.co.uk

     Phone - 0040721717447

     Referred by -

     Stratfor. I will develop the Romanian Center for Ethics and Strategies
     and The Center for Research and Protection against Bioterrorism. The
     current status is legal registering approval. In 2 weeks to be
     accomplished. Therefor we would need info for products to be used and
     presented in the close future. Best regards, Radu Chirculescu.

     I am interested in: Corporate Brochure, TrapWire Brochure, TrapWire
     Demo, CFATS Brochure, SAW Brochure, DDER Brochure, Please Contact Me

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     NOTICE: This email message and all attachments transmitted with it are
     intended solely for the use of the addressees and may contain legally
     privileged, protected or confidential information. If you have received
     this message in error, please notify the sender immediately by email
     reply and please delete this message from your computer and destroy any
     copies.
</description>
    <date>2010-10-22 03:40:34</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/281257_fw-fw-web-query-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>colibasanu@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>281563</id>
    <title>FW: Her Games
</title>
    <description>   There were some earlier encrypted emails from Fred to George and you
   before I got involved that I should see but for some reason G's and my pgp
   is not working - can you forward me a couple from around end of January
   subject line Her Games and The Next Chapter and Re...also one where G laid
   out his strategy to you both but I dont' know what the subject line of
   that was. I want to make sure I'm up to speed on all details and G is busy
   writing the weekly...plus we still haven't gotten our PGP keys synching.
   Much appreciated.
    
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, January 29, 2010 7:20 AM
   To: 'George Friedman'
   Cc: scott stewart
   Subject: Her Games
</description>
    <date>2010-02-22 02:58:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/281563_fw-her-games-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>281798</id>
    <title>STRATFOR MONITOR- ARGENTINA - Falkland Islands oil exploration
</title>
    <description>   Reports from Malvina government authorities say that the companies Border
   and Southern Ltd and BHP Billiton are prepared to start exploring the
   Southern waters of the Falkland islands as soon as possible.  They are
   even evaluating the possibility of bringing a new oil platform or drilling
   boat to the area in the event they are unable to use the Ocean Guardian
   (the drilling boat that caused the recent rift among the govts).  Through
   these measures, Border and Southern Ltd and BHP Billiton will be the
   latest companies to join oil exploration activities in the islands (after
   Desire Petroleum and Rockopper Exploration), which are currently in waters
   North of the islands.  Desire and Rockopper are the companies
   that contracted the Ocean Guardian from Diamond Offshore Drilling Intl;
   Billiton could also use the Ocean Guardian. 

   Island authorities have said that drilling in southern waters is a more
   delicate issue environmentally speaking.  However, according to their
   studies, oil companies are saying that their activities will not interfere
   with commercial fishing in the area (the principal form of income for the
   islands).  Some experts are saying that the two drilling areas are an
   underwater continuation of the Andes. They are also located very close to
   the well that YPF wants to explore in Argentine waters.  The expert also
   said that the exploratory phase in southern waters would take about 70
   days, though he said that he could not estimate a start date given the
   variables over equipment availability.

    
</description>
    <date>2010-03-05 16:38:28</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 22:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/281798_stratfor-monitor-argentina-falkland-islands-oil-exploration-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>meredith.friedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Howard.Davis@nov.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Pete.Miller@nov.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Andrew.bruce@nov.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>David.rigel@nov.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>loren.singletary@nov.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>281936</id>
    <title>RE: Sabah
</title>
    <description>Great - let me know when you hear something. 

-----Original Message-----
From: Kamran Bokhari [mailto:bokhari@stratfor.com] 
Sent: Sunday, April 11, 2010 7:18 AM
To: Meredith Friedman
Subject: Re: Sabah

Response from contact: 

hi kamran. the sabah people will respond on monday.ibrahim
---

Sent from my BlackBerry device on the Rogers Wireless Network  
</description>
    <date>2010-04-11 20:32:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-12 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/281936_re-sabah-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>282635</id>
    <title>[alpha] Insight processing reminder
</title>
    <description>   Anyone sending insight through to the list needs to remember the new
   coding we have scoring everything on an A-F scale.  I am pasting the
   directions again below.  Pay particular attention to the directions under
   item credibility.

   Also, Mikey made a good point the other day.  Often we will task a source
   asking for feedback on a particular OS piece.  When we do that please also
   include the piece being referenced so that it completes the insight. 
   Sometimes we don't know what the source is referencing, making it
   confusing.

   Finally, where possible its also a good idea to include the original
   (scrub them where needed) questions for the same reason mentioned above on
   the OS pieces.  Where that is not possible and where necessary, please
   give a general idea on the tasking to better understand the sources
   references.  Also, when you include the (scrubbed) questions - and again,
   I know that's not always appropriate - it helps others trying to learn the
   sourcing and insight process to learn how we task sources.

   SOURCE: code
   ATTRIBUTION: this is what we should say if we use this info in a
   publication, e.g. STRATFOR source/source in the medical industry/source on
   the ground, etc
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: this is where we put the more concrete details of the
   source for our internal consumption so we can better understand the
   source's background and ability to make the assessments in the insight.
   PUBLICATION: Yes or no.  If you put yes it doesn't mean that we will
   publish it, but only that we can publish it.
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A-F. A being the best and F being the worst.  This
   grades the source overall - access to information, timeliness,
   availability, etc.  In short, how good is this source?
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: A-F.  A = we can take this info to the bank; B = Good
   insight but maybe not entirely precise; C = Insight is only partially
   true; D = There may be some interest in the insight, but it is mostly
   false or just pure speculation; F = Likely to be disinformation.
   SPECIAL HANDLING: often this is "none" but it may be something like, "if
   you use this we need to be sure not to mention the part about XXX in
   thepublication" or any other special notes
   SOURCE HANDLER: the person who can take follow-up questions and
   communicate with the source

   Remember that you are not limited to only putting down the letter score
   and are encouraged to give insight into WHY you are picking that score.  I
   know we are often in a hurry, but this is very helpful for everyone
   understanding biases, uniqueness and other factors that make the insight
   pertinent (or not).

   If there are any questions, please ask.

   Jen

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-08-11 23:48:03</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 02:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/282635_-alpha-insight-processing-reminder-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>283431</id>
    <title>RE: YOUR ARRIVAL TO ISTANBUL
</title>
    <description>   Thank you very much Ibrahim. We will be ready by 10:30a.m. to go to SETA. 
    
   We look forward to meeting Taha Ozhan and also Cemalettin Hasimi tomorrow.
    
   Best,
   Meredith
   mobile 001 512 426 5107

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: ibrahimkalin@gmail.com [mailto:ibrahimkalin@gmail.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, June 02, 2010 8:26 AM
   To: Meredith Friedman; Taha Ozhan; Cemalettin Hasimi
   Subject: Re: YOUR ARRIVAL TO ISTANBUL
   Dear meredith and george. Your program tomorrow will start at 11.00 am at
   the seta foundation where you will have a closed roundtable with a group
   of journalists and think-tank experts. It is being coordinate by taha
   ozhan, seta's director. I am copying this message to him.
   Tomorrow my colleague cemalettin hasimi will accompany you to seta and
   pick you up from the hotel. He is also cc'ed.

   Ibrahim

   Bu e-posta, Turkcell BlackBerry ile go:nderilmistir.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Meredith Friedman" &lt;mfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Wed, 2 Jun 2010 01:57:43 -0500
   To: &lt;ibrahimkalin@gmail.com&gt;
   Cc: 'meredith friedman'&lt;meredith.friedman@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: RE: YOUR ARRIVAL TO ISTANBUL
   Dear Ibrahim-
    
   Thank you so much. We also look forward to seeing you and meetings in
   Ankara. We will be at the Hilton International hotel. There is a driver
   picking us up when we arrive at 1a.m. on June 3. Let us know the time for
   our first meeting when you have that locked in.
    
   Also re tonight I hope it goes well too. Do you know if there is any
   security for this event since it's a public event? Do they normally check
   people coming in to the hall or no?
    
   Best regards,
   Meredith

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: ibrahimkalin@gmail.com [mailto:ibrahimkalin@gmail.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, June 02, 2010 1:48 AM
   To: Meredith Friedman
   Subject: Re: YOUR ARRIVAL TO ISTANBUL
   Dear meredith. We look forward to seeing you in ankara tomorrow. I hope
   the event tonight goes well.
   What hotel will you be staying at in ankara? I will send a car for you.
   Ibrahim

   Bu e-posta, Turkcell BlackBerry ile go:nderilmistir.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Meredith Friedman" &lt;mfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Wed, 2 Jun 2010 01:40:13 -0500
   To: 'Ozan Batarc,ikar'&lt;ozan@selenagroup.com&gt;
   Cc: 'Mu:jdat Uluc,am'&lt;mulucam@kultursanat.org&gt;; &lt;ibrahimkalin@gmail.com&gt;
   Subject: RE: YOUR ARRIVAL TO ISTANBUL
   Thank you Ozan - that sounds good. Also tomorrow night June 3 we will
   return to Istanbul on a 7p.m. Turkish Airlines flight from Ankara that
   arrives IST at 8:05p.m. If that changes at all to a later flight we'll
   notify you but please have a driver to meet us tomorrow night when we
   return as well.
    
   Best,
    
   Meredith Friedman

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Ozan Batarc,ikar [mailto:ozan@selenagroup.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, June 02, 2010 1:30 AM
   To: 'Meredith Friedman'
   Cc: 'Mu:jdat Uluc,am'; ibrahimkalin@gmail.com
   Subject: RE: YOUR ARRIVAL TO ISTANBUL

   Dear Mrs. Friedman,

   Good morning. Here are the answers of your questions.

    

    1. Public Lecture will be at CRR Concert Hall. So it is close to your
       hotel.
    2. If your meeting at Sabah finishes at 4:30 PM, than you will have time
       to go back to your hotel and you should leave the hotel around 6:20 PM
       (but not later than that)
    3. You wrote me that you flight to Ankara is at 23:55 so you suppose to
       be at the airport not later than 23:10. That means you suppose to move
       to airport at 22:40. Well under this circumstances you may have some
       time to go back to the hotel. You will have about an hour to spend.
    4. The driver will be there at the hotel at 11:15 as I mentioned before.
       If you can not find him at the lobby please call me.

    

   Best regards,

    

   OZAN BATARC,IKAR

   SELENA GROUP

   Istanbul Du:nya Ticaret Merkezi

   A1 Blok Kat 8 No 291, 34149

   Yesilko:y - Istanbul / Turkey

   Tel : + 90 212 465 00 90

   Fax : + 90 212 465 65 40

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Meredith Friedman [mailto:mfriedman@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Tuesday, June 01, 2010 6:52 PM
   To: 'Ozan Batarc,ikar'
   Cc: 'Mu:jdat Uluc,am'; ibrahimkalin@gmail.com
   Subject: RE: YOUR ARRIVAL TO ISTANBUL

    

   Dear Ozan -

    

   Thank you for meeting us when we arrived in Istanbul yesterday. We have
   the 3 meetings tomorrow that I sent you but I don't know the address of
   the Public Lecture meeting at 7p.m. - do you know where it is or shall I
   write to our contact to ask?

    

   Also will we have time to come back to our hotel after the afternoon
   meeting at Sabah which should go probably from 3p.m.- 4:30p.m.?

    

   Second will we have time to come back to the hotel after the public
   lecture before going to the airport as we'll need to pick up some luggage
   to take with us. Please advise on timing for needing to leave for the
   airport and whether we should bring our luggage when we leave to go to the
   public lecture?

    

   best regards,

    

   Meredith Friedman

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Ozan Batarc,ikar [mailto:ozan@selenagroup.com]
   Sent: Friday, May 28, 2010 1:45 AM
   To: mfriedman@stratfor.com
   Cc: 'Mu:jdat Uluc,am'; ibrahimkalin@gmail.com
   Subject: YOUR ARRIVAL TO ISTANBUL

   Dear Mr. &amp; Mrs. Friedman,

    

   Warm greetings and best wishes from Istanbul.

   Please kindly note that; me or one of my friends will be there at the
   airport to meet you with a signboard with your name on it. If you miss our
   representative at the airport please feel free to contact me. My GSM
   number is 0090 532 796 62 26.

    

   Best regards,

   OZAN BATARC,IKAR

   SELENA GROUP

   Istanbul Du:nya Ticaret Merkezi

   A1 Blok Kat 8 No 291, 34149

   Yesilko:y - Istanbul / Turkey

   Tel : + 90 212 465 00 90

   Fax : + 90 212 465 65 40

    
</description>
    <date>2010-06-02 15:35:22</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-12 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/283431_re-your-arrival-to-istanbul-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>tozhan@setav.org</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ibrahimkalin@gmail.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>chasimi@gmail.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>286265</id>
    <title>FW: monitor guidance
</title>
    <description>11</description>
    <date>2009-07-21 02:01:51</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/286265_fw-monitor-guidance-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/20/20529_Eurasia.doc</path><size>120320</size><md5></md5><sha1>0e3b40aa2ffa5807d2e0f09ebe217fd93280af05</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/20/20531_mesa.doc</path><size>126464</size><md5></md5><sha1>af3c548f5c9efe0f16a6307aeaeefb45420e60da</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/20/20532_Africa.doc</path><size>147456</size><md5></md5><sha1>777aceb4b94bca19d73b257445eb9680265bda5a</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/20/20534_East Asia.doc</path><size>124416</size><md5></md5><sha1>0e169ff1d806314c97cd1682de035d3a0a2a3060</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/20/20537_briefers.doc</path><size>44032</size><md5></md5><sha1>368e0abbf8ce88cb0ab7a9668c3d32fa50d6173f</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/20/20539_Latam.doc</path><size>109568</size><md5></md5><sha1>170df48223776b69cbbfc67b7ad3f63d23a3c193</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>287636</id>
    <title>FW: monitor guidance
</title>
    <description>28</description>
    <date>2009-07-17 22:17:57</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/287636_fw-monitor-guidance-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>hooper@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/20/20529_Eurasia.doc</path><size>120320</size><md5></md5><sha1>0e3b40aa2ffa5807d2e0f09ebe217fd93280af05</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/20/20531_mesa.doc</path><size>126464</size><md5></md5><sha1>af3c548f5c9efe0f16a6307aeaeefb45420e60da</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/20/20532_Africa.doc</path><size>147456</size><md5></md5><sha1>777aceb4b94bca19d73b257445eb9680265bda5a</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/20/20534_East Asia.doc</path><size>124416</size><md5></md5><sha1>0e169ff1d806314c97cd1682de035d3a0a2a3060</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/20/20537_briefers.doc</path><size>44032</size><md5></md5><sha1>368e0abbf8ce88cb0ab7a9668c3d32fa50d6173f</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/20/20539_Latam.doc</path><size>109568</size><md5></md5><sha1>170df48223776b69cbbfc67b7ad3f63d23a3c193</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>287965</id>
    <title>RE: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2 - one more thought
</title>
    <description>   One other thing -- from a branding perspective if we're serious about
   Quality, Status and Mystique I think showing too much of our inner
   workings devalues our Mystique. People don't know how we collect our
   intelligence and that's one of the cool, mysterious things about STRATFOR.
   Seeing raw intelligence come in would be cool for a few weeks but then it
   would become another expected product and we lose our mystique a little on
   source collection.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Meredith Friedman
   Sent: Thursday, October 01, 2009 9:55 AM
   To: scott stewart; friedman@att.blackberry.net; 'Darryl O'Connor'; 'Aaric
   Eisenstein'; 'Peter Zeihan'; 'George Friedman';
   maverick.fisher@stratfor.com
   Cc: 'Grant Perry'; 'Richard Parker'; 'darryl'
   Subject: RE: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
   Thanks, Stick, for laying this out. I have to say I support your position
   on this. As you mentioned yesterday, our sources would be talking to
   Reuters or other news organizations if they wanted their ideas published
   directly (even as anonymous sources) but they are not - they are talking
   to us because they know we protect not only their identity but use what
   they say in a careful way in our analysis or as sitreps.
    
   On the reverse side, if we blacked out every category of our source
   descriptions and coding it would be silly and make people wonder if we
   weren't making them up ourselves. We already show a lot of leg by sharing
   our internal intelligence guidance with our customers - that is sexy and
   something that makes us unique. I agree we would lose some of our best
   sources for intelligence if we began publishing what they send us in raw
   format no matter how carefully we try to disguise their identity.
    
   Meredith

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: scott stewart [mailto:scott.stewart@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, October 01, 2009 9:43 AM
   To: friedman@att.blackberry.net; 'Darryl O'Connor'; 'Aaric Eisenstein';
   'Peter Zeihan'; 'George Friedman'; maverick.fisher@stratfor.com
   Cc: 'Grant Perry'; 'Richard Parker'; 'darryl'; 'Meredith Friedman'
   Subject: RE: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
   OK, I have taken 24 hours to relax, calm down and think about this
   concept.
    
   Here are my thoughts.
    
    
   1) This may be a decent marketing idea, but in my opinion it is a terrible
   intelligence idea. In addition to the point I made yesterday about many of
   our sources not wanting to be paraded into the spotlight, it is also
   important to remember that we have sources in places like Iran, Syria,
   China and Russia who could be traced if we allowed that much of their
   writings and information to be published in raw form.  Allowing an
   intelligence service to isolate all the source reporting coming from that
   country would be very attractive to them and they would certainly attempt
   to determine who we are talking to, and who is talking to us, on a regular
   basis.
    
   We have an ethical responsible to do our best to protect our people - and
   from a purely selfish perspective if one of our people is identified and
   then whacked, arrested, or cowed by the authorities into no longer
   reporting, we can quickly lose an asset that have taken us years to
   develop.  This will hurt our publishing operations, and will not be
   sustainable in the long run.  We need to protect our most valuable -- and
   in most cases, our most sensitive -- sources for the future of the
   company. 
    
   2) We could do something like this with less-sensitive sources who agree
   to be published directly, but those less-sensitive sources will lack the
   sex appeal that Aaric is looking for and that will make this a rather
   bland product offering.
    
   3) Based on 1 and 2, it is my recommendation that we continue to handle
   insight as it is. That is, using it to inform our analysis and to make
   sure our published work remains very strong, and our CIS customers stay
   informed.  We can also continue to use critical pieces of insight directly
   as the basis for sitreps.  
    
   I have calmed down from yesterday, but I still feel very strongly that
   continuing to handle insight as we do is the best course of action for us
   as an intelligence company.
    
    
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: George Friedman [mailto:friedman@att.blackberry.net]
   Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2009 12:31 PM
   To: scott stewart; Darryl O'Connor; 'Aaric Eisenstein'; 'Peter Zeihan';
   George Friedman; maverick.fisher@stratfor.com
   Cc: 'Grant Perry'; 'Richard Parker'; 'darryl'
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
   We need to sit down and consider this. Sources we can't use are useless.
   Promiscuous use of sensitive sources is dangerous. This is an ongoing
   dilemma of intelligence. Since we aren't journalists there may be ways to
   deal with this. We need a policy. Stick, please put out your thoughts on
   this and then we will follow up. In the meantime we fold sensitive
   intelligence into analyses or sitreps on a case by case basis.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "scott stewart"
   Date: Wed, 30 Sep 2009 12:18:26 -0400
   To: 'Darryl O'Connor'&lt;oconnor@stratfor.com&gt;; 'Aaric
   Eisenstein'&lt;eisenstein@stratfor.com&gt;; 'Peter
   Zeihan'&lt;peter.zeihan@stratfor.com&gt;; 'George
   Friedman'&lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;; &lt;maverick.fisher@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: RE: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2

   This is what I said to Aaric Monday. We really need to protect our people
   and our sources.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Darryl O'Connor [mailto:oconnor@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2009 12:05 PM
   To: 'Aaric Eisenstein'; 'scott stewart'; 'Peter Zeihan'; 'George
   Friedman'; maverick.fisher@stratfor.com
   Cc: 'Grant Perry'; 'Richard Parker'; 'darryl'
   Subject: RE: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
   my concern:
    
   does the source have website access?  let's assume so.  would they
   have the piss scared out of them to see their own words on our website?
   enough piss scared out of them to not want to be a source anymore?  
    
   this is not really my area and not trying to horn in on someone else's
   territory, but i thought it wouldn't hurt to ask the question.  
    
   over and out.
     

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Aaric Eisenstein [mailto:eisenstein@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2009 10:55 AM
   To: 'scott stewart'; 'Peter Zeihan'; 'George Friedman';
   maverick.fisher@stratfor.com
   Cc: 'Grant Perry'; 'Richard Parker'; 'darryl'
   Subject: FW: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
   Can we publish the Insight below - redacted on source of course - as a
   test of the "raw" format as opposed to putting it into an article?  It'll
   be interesting to see what kind of feedback we get on the new format. 
   This Insight as good flavor in its raw form.
    
   Aaric S. Eisenstein
   Chief Innovation Officer
   STRATFOR
   512-744-4308
   512-744-4334 fax
   aaric.eisenstein@stratfor.com
   Follow us on http://Twitter.com/stratfor
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Peter Zeihan [mailto:zeihan@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2009 10:51 AM
   To: Aaron Colvin
   Cc: Secure List
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
   interesting -- they've put in a clod because they don't think he's smart
   enough to do anything

   would hate to be the clod

   clods are disposable

   Aaron Colvin wrote:

     SOURCE CODE: IR2

     PUBLICATION: Not Applicable

     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Tehran-based freelance journalist/analyst who is
     well plugged into the system

     ATTRIBUTION: Not Applicable

     SOURCE RELIABILITY: B

     ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2

     SPECIAL HANDLING: Not Applicable

     DISTRIBUTION: Secure

     SOURCE HANDLER: Kamran

     I think the composition is very interesting. Jalili is no seasoned
     diplomat but he is someone both SL and Sepah could trust since his lower
     intellectual and political stature makes it less likely that he shows
     any independent streaks on tactical matters-- as someone like Larijani
     could have. The other two are career diplomats-technocrats with
     extensive knowledge of their respective fields. Jalili needs them for
     advice on legal niceties and for general political considerations. The
     third negotiator's presence is in indeed interesting. As you have
     noted, the  presence of someone from the Minstry of Economic Affairs
     serves to show Iran's seriouness in the talks. But it is just for the
     show as Iran knows that the talks will fail.
</description>
    <date>2009-10-01 17:06:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/287965_re-insight-iran-delegation-to-geneva-ir2-one-more-thought-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>oconnor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>darryl.oconnor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eisenstein@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>peter.zeihan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>maverick.fisher@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Richard.parker@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>grant.perry@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>290339</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111
</title>
    <description>   this dude really gives the impression that Moscow calls the shots in Kiev

   so basically, Med gets pissed b/c Timo is blowing Putin and not him, so he
   whines to Putin and says drop the B and get behind Yanu like me. Putin
   says fine, Yanu gets excited and oversteps his boundaries, and now Putin
   is like fix this shit Med and Med is like okay, but we dont know what Med
   is actually gonna do to slap Yanu around

   so what's the couterargument to this? Does Russia really have this much
   influence over the situation?  this is something we need to address in
   ukraine reassessment

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marc Lanthemann" &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

   CODE: UA111
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Kiev
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch.
   But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps
   this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to
   begin with.

    

   You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in
   power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew
   Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to
   solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be
   Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most
   easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got
   her in trouble and arrested.

    

   But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no
   respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev
   made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a
   deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if
   Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being
   the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU,
   military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension
   it had been pushing for.

    

   So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009,
   the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing
   to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of
   demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally.

    

   Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev
   to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing
   against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever
   will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-09-14 20:55:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/290339_re-alpha-insight-ukraine-moscow-kiev-spat-ua111-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>290835</id>
    <title>MUST READ: New GV Process
</title>
    <description>   Beginning today, we will put in place a new GV monitoring procedure.
    
   1. Watch officers will continue to post items to the alerts list to flag
   them as potential GV monitors. 
    
   2. Briefers will be responsible for sorting through those alerts (among
   other material), and will post those items that actually require monitors
   to a GV Folder on Clearspace
   (http://clearspace.stratfor.com/community/analysts/gv). That folder will
   be a central list of GV requests.
    
   3. Analysts will then produce GV Monitors for the requests in the folder
   and post them to the analyst list as usual.
    
   4. After any necessary discussion of the monitor is resolved on the
   list, the analyst will post the final GV Monitor as a reply to the request
   in the GV folder.
    
   5. A briefer will move completed GV requests from main GV folder into an
   archive folder, which will be a central repository for past GVs. The
   object is to keep that GV folder as near to empty as possible.
    
    
   This process incorporates briefers better into the GV process, and places
   on them the burden of sifting through the many items flagged for GV by the
   Watch Officers (who should keep up the good work). As GV monitors will
   only be written when requested by at least one briefer, we will avoid
   producing monitors that are not ultimately sent to any client (which
   currently happens).
    
   If analysts see items they think the briefers missed or underestimated the
   significance of, they should, of course, bring them to the briefers'
   attention. And briefers will continue to ask whether analysts think some
   developments are important enough to warrant a GV. This process is not
   meant to replace individual communication.
    
   This GV folder will give everyone a clear picture of which GV requests are
   outstanding, allowing better prioritization; and it will alert us when
   there is a backlog.
    
   Analysts will not need to check the GV folder constantly; they can receive
   email notifications whenever a new item is posted (go to
   http://clearspace.stratfor.com/community/analysts/gv and select "Receive
   email notifications" in the "Actions &amp; Notifications" box on the right) or
   opt to use the space's RSS feed (also in the A&amp;R box). GV requests that
   remain unanswered for 3 hours will automatically generate an email alert
   to the secure list.
    
   We are continuing to work on ways to improve the GV system. Please contact
   me with any questions.
    
    
   Joseph de Feo
   Briefer
   STRATFOR
   T: 703-469-2182 x2185
   F: 703-469-2189
   defeo@stratfor.com 
   _______________________
   www.stratfor.com
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
</description>
    <date>2007-10-22 13:45:12</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/290835_must-read-new-gv-process-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>defeo@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>291885</id>
    <title>MUST READ -- Welcome to the secure list
</title>
    <description>   Hi everyone,
    
   As we are shifting the way we operate and adding new overseas monitors to
   the Stratfor team, we need to also change our own procedures to ensure our
   own efficiency, as well as the protection of our clients.
    
   Currently, the bulk of information in the company flows through the
   analysts@stratfor.com list, which the analysts, interns, writers,
   briefers, etc. belong to. The monitors need to be able to view the
   information flowing through the list to pick up on what issues we're
   looking at, see what information has already been posted and gradually get
   a feel of what's geopolitically significant. At the same time, it is
   unnecessary for monitors to be exposed to any client-related material that
   makes it to the list, including GV monitors and client reports/projects.
    
   To resolve this issue, we have created a new list called
   secure@stratfor.com. This list is to only be used for CLIENT-RELATED
   MATERIAL and anything else that should be shielded from the intern and
   monitor pools. From now on, DO NOT post anything client-related to the
   analysts@stratfor.com list. Only analysts (from geopol, public policy and
   security), briefers, writers and relevant managers belong to the secure
   list.
    
   Please discipline yourself to send client-related material to the secure
   list. This new system will help us manage the content of the analysts list
   and protect our clients' interests.
    
   A full list of the people on the secure list is added below. Let myself
   and IT know if someone is missing.
    
   Thanks,
    
   Reva Bhalla
   Strategic Forecasting Inc.
   Director of Geopolitical Analysis
   T: (512) 744-4316
   F: (512) 744-4334
   www.stratfor.com
    

      
     Rodger Baker
     Reva Bhalla
     Peter Zeihan
     Kamran Bokhari
     Mark Schroeder
     Jen Richmond
     Nate Hughes
     Lina Reznikov
      
     Amy Dalton
     Anya Alfano
     Joseph de Feo
      
     Bart Mongoven
     Kathy Morson
     Sarah Campbell
     Dan Kornfield
      
     Andrew Teekell
     Dan Burgess
      
      
     Marla Dial
     Walt Howerton
     Michael McCullar
     Lori Slaugenhoupt
     Les McLain
     Robin Blackburn
     Maverick Fisher
     Rachel Swindle
     Jeremy Edwards
      
     Fred Burton
     Mike Parks
     Scott Stewart
     Ron Moore
     George Friedman
</description>
    <date>2006-11-15 22:11:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/291885_must-read-welcome-to-the-secure-list-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>293020</id>
    <title>(More)  INSIGHT - Terrorist Threat - CONUS ** Internal Use Only - Do Not Forward ** 
</title>
    <description>   ** Internal Use Only - Do Not Forward **
    
   From an FBI HQS internal assessment --
    
   NYC, Washington, Seattle, Boston, Philadelphia and cities where there are
   major oil refineries.
    
   Detroit possibly because of  the border and large Arab population.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Monday, August 27, 2007 7:05 PM
   To: 'CT'; 'Analysts'
   Subject: INSIGHT - Terrorist Threat - CONUS ** Internal Use Only - Do Not
   Forward **
   ** Internal Use Only - Do Not Forward **
    
   FBI advises in confidence and not for publication that the probability is
   very high that a major act of terror will occur any day in a large U.S.
   port city. 
    
   Small scale cells are not the fear, but a large event that will cause a
   significant amount of U.S. lives and economic chaos.  There have been a
   large number of suspected jihadis who have infiltrated into the United
   States that the FBI cannot find, in concert with a significant uptick in
   chatter (SIGINT) and the movement of terrorists and supplies (food and
   water) into caves in Afghanistan, in anticipation of large scale U.S.
   reprisals. 
    
   The FBI does not believe DC will be hit, but were unable to identify any
   specific cities other than "a large U.S. port city."   
    
   After further assessment, the FBI believes the Seattle ferry surveillance
   were al-Qaeda suspects sent to "ping the system as a false positive" to
   tie up investigative resources.
    
   Situation was described as grave. 
    
   I have no further information. 
</description>
    <date>2007-08-28 14:53:57</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-07-31 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/293020_-more-insight-terrorist-threat-conus-internal-use-only-do.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>294692</id>
    <title>FW: monitor guidance
</title>
    <description>13</description>
    <date>2009-07-21 02:00:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-06-20 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/294692_fw-monitor-guidance-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>hooper@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/20/20529_Eurasia.doc</path><size>120320</size><md5></md5><sha1>0e3b40aa2ffa5807d2e0f09ebe217fd93280af05</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/20/20531_mesa.doc</path><size>126464</size><md5></md5><sha1>af3c548f5c9efe0f16a6307aeaeefb45420e60da</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/20/20532_Africa.doc</path><size>147456</size><md5></md5><sha1>777aceb4b94bca19d73b257445eb9680265bda5a</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/20/20534_East Asia.doc</path><size>124416</size><md5></md5><sha1>0e169ff1d806314c97cd1682de035d3a0a2a3060</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/20/20537_briefers.doc</path><size>44032</size><md5></md5><sha1>368e0abbf8ce88cb0ab7a9668c3d32fa50d6173f</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/20/20539_Latam.doc</path><size>109568</size><md5></md5><sha1>170df48223776b69cbbfc67b7ad3f63d23a3c193</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>299114</id>
    <title>Geopolitical Intelligence Report - Russia: Kosovo and the Asymmetry of Perceptions
</title>
    <description>Here I am, an inveterate communist hater and yet I am pulling for Russia on 
this.  Why?  Because the U.S. has no business siding with or aiding the 
Kosovans in what they do.  The Kosovans are Muslims, which means they are 
our enemies.  They even allied -- as did the Bosnian Muslims - in WWII with 
the Germans in slaughtering hundreds of thousands of Christian Serbs and 
opposing the Allies, whereas the Serbs were our allies, and saved hundreds 
(if not thousands) of American and British airmen who were shot down in that 
area.

In the 90s, the U.S. went against the Serbs because it suited Clinton's 
political purposes by demonizing them to draw attention away from his 
pittypat with Monica, and drawing DNC money from Red China, in exchange for 
arranging the supply of our missile technology to them, as well as making 
other financial committments to them, such as the import of 600,000 AK47s 
immediately prior to the changes to the Gun Control Act in 1994.  Clinton 
has been and continues to be slime in every respect and his political 
ambitions have placed America in jeopardy and worked against America's 
allies.  So in the end, it is not really the Russians I am pulling for, but 
the Serbs.  They deserve much, much better from us -- and even separate from 
them, we had no right to strike a deal with the Russians on the issue and 
then backstab them.

In the 21st century, threats to America are coming from Red China and Islam, 
and any American leadership should recognize the need to gather with all 
others with out common interests (Russia, Europe, India, and some of the far 
Eastern nations) into a mutually protective coalition.  We have no business 
making enemies of them.
*************************

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Stratfor" &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
To: &lt;fhwandell@accessbee.com&gt;
Sent: Tuesday, December 18, 2007 4:30 PM
Subject: Geopolitical Intelligence Report - Russia: Kosovo and the Asymmetry 
of Perceptions


&gt;
&gt;
&gt; Stratfor: Geopolitical Intelligence Report - December 18, 2007
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; Join the conversation! Read and respond to George Friedman's new blog, 
&gt; Friedman Writes Back
&gt;
&gt; http://blogs.stratfor.com/friedman/
&gt;
&gt; just a first taste of the new features coming soon in Stratfor 2.0.
&gt;
&gt; http://www.stratfor.com/offers/071124-stratfor2/
&gt;
&gt;  Russia: Kosovo and the Asymmetry of Perceptions
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; By George Friedman
&gt;
&gt; Kosovo appears to be an archaic topic. The Yugoslavian question was a 
&gt; 1990s issue, while the Kosovo issue has appeared to be one of those 
&gt; conflicts that never quite goes away but isn't regarded very seriously by 
&gt; the international community. You hear about it but you don't care about 
&gt; it. However, Kosovo is getting very serious again.
&gt;
&gt; The United States and Europe appear committed to making Kosovo, now a 
&gt; province of Serbia, an independent state. Of course, Serbia opposes this, 
&gt; but more important, so does Russia. Russia opposed the original conflict, 
&gt; but at that point it was weak and its wishes were irrelevant. Russia 
&gt; opposes independence for Kosovo now, and it is far from the weak state it 
&gt; was in 1999 -- and is not likely to take this quietly. Kosovo's potential 
&gt; as a flash point between Russia and the West makes it important again. 
&gt; Let's therefore review the action to this point.
&gt;
&gt; In 1999, NATO, led by the United States, conducted a 60-day bombing 
&gt; campaign against Yugoslavia and its main component, Serbia. The issue was 
&gt; the charge that Yugoslavia was sponsoring the mass murder of ethnic 
&gt; Albanians in Kosovo, just as it had against Bosnian Muslims. The campaign 
&gt; aimed to force the Yugoslav army out of Kosovo while allowing a NATO force 
&gt; to occupy and administer the province.
&gt;
&gt; Two strands led to this action. The first was the fear that the 
&gt; demonstrable atrocities committed by Serbs in Bosnia were being repeated 
&gt; in Kosovo. The second was the general feeling dominant in the 1990s that 
&gt; the international community's primary task was dealing with rogue states 
&gt; behaving in ways that violated international norms. In other words, it was 
&gt; assumed that there was a general international consensus on how the world 
&gt; should look, that the United States was the leader of this international 
&gt; consensus and that there was no power that could threaten the United 
&gt; States or the unity of the vision. There were only weak, isolated rogue 
&gt; states that had to be dealt with. There was no real risk attached to these 
&gt; operations. Yugoslavia was identified as one of those rogue states. The 
&gt; United States, without the United Nations but with the backing of most 
&gt; European countries, dealt with it.
&gt;
&gt; There was no question that Serbs committed massive atrocities in Bosnia, 
&gt; and that Bosnians and Croats carried out massive atrocities against Serbs. 
&gt; These atrocities occurred in the context of Yugoslavia's explosion after 
&gt; the end of the Cold War. Yugoslavia had been part of an arc running from 
&gt; the Danube to the Hindu Kush, frozen into place by the Cold War. Muslims 
&gt; had been divided by the line, with some living in the former Soviet Union 
&gt; but most on the other side. The Yugoslav state consisted of Catholics, 
&gt; Orthodox Christians and Muslims; it was communist but anti-Soviet and 
&gt; cooperated with the United States. It was an artificial state imposed on 
&gt; multiple nationalities by the victors of World War I and held in place 
&gt; after World War II by the force field created by U.S.-Soviet power. When 
&gt; the Soviets fell, the force field collapsed and Yugoslavia detonated, 
&gt; followed later by the rest of the arc.
&gt;
&gt; The NATO mission, then, was to stabilize the western end of this arc, 
&gt; Yugoslavia. The strategy was to abolish the multinational state created 
&gt; after World War I and replace it with a series of nation-states -- such as 
&gt; Slovenia and Macedonia -- built around a coherent national unit. This 
&gt; would stabilize Yugoslavia. The problem with this plan was that each 
&gt; nation-state would contain substantial ethnic minorities, regardless of 
&gt; attempts to redraw the borders. Thus, Bosnia contains Serbs. But the 
&gt; theory was that small states overwhelmingly consisting of one nationality 
&gt; could remain stable in the face of ethnic diversity so long as there was a 
&gt; dominant nation -- unlike Yugoslavia, where there was no central national 
&gt; grouping.
&gt;
&gt; So NATO decided to re-engineer the Balkans much as they were re-engineered 
&gt; after World War I. NATO and the United States got caught in a weird 
&gt; intellectual trap. On the one hand, there was an absolute consensus that 
&gt; the post-World War II borders of Europe were sacrosanct. If that wasn't 
&gt; the case, then Hungarians living in Romanian Transylvania might want to 
&gt; rejoin Hungary, Turkish regions of Cyprus might want to join Turkey, 
&gt; Germany might want to reclaim Silesia and Northern Ireland might want to 
&gt; secede from the United Kingdom. All hell could break loose, and one of the 
&gt; ways Europe avoided hell after 1945 was a cardinal rule: No borders would 
&gt; shift.
&gt;
&gt; The re-engineering of Yugoslavia was not seen as changing borders. Rather, 
&gt; it was seen as eliminating a completely artificial state and freeing 
&gt; genuine nations to have their own states. But it was assumed that the 
&gt; historic borders of those states could not be changed merely because of 
&gt; the presence of other ethnic groups concentrated in a region. So the 
&gt; desire of Bosnian Serbs to join Serbia was rejected, both because of the 
&gt; atrocious behavior of the Bosnian Serbs and because it would have shifted 
&gt; the historic borders of Bosnia. If all of this seems a bit tortured, 
&gt; please recall the hubris of the West in the 1990s. Anything was possible, 
&gt; including re-engineering the land of the south Slavs, as Yugoslavia's name 
&gt; translates in English.
&gt;
&gt; In all of this, Serbia was seen as the problem. Rather than viewing 
&gt; Yugoslavia as a general failed project, Serbia was seen not so much as 
&gt; part of the failure but as an intrinsically egregious actor that had to be 
&gt; treated differently than the rest, given its behavior, particularly 
&gt; against the Bosnians. When it appeared that the Serbs were repeating their 
&gt; actions in Bosnia against Albanian Muslims in 1999, the United States and 
&gt; other NATO allies felt they had to intervene.
&gt;
&gt; In fact, the level of atrocities in Kosovo never approached what happened 
&gt; in Bosnia, nor what the Clinton administration said was going on before 
&gt; and during the war. At one point, it was said that hundreds of thousands 
&gt; of men were missing, and later that 10,000 had been killed and bodies were 
&gt; being dissolved in acid. The post-war analysis never revealed any 
&gt; atrocities on this order of magnitude. But that was not the point. The 
&gt; point was that the United States had shifted to a post-Cold War attitude, 
&gt; and that since there were no real threats against the United States, the 
&gt; primary mission of foreign policy was dealing with minor rogue states, 
&gt; preventing genocide and re-engineering unstable regions. People have 
&gt; sought explanations for the Kosovo war in vast and complex conspiracies. 
&gt; The fact is that the motivation was a complex web of domestic political 
&gt; concerns and a genuine belief that the primary mission was to improve the 
&gt; world.
&gt;
&gt; The United States dealt with its concerns over Kosovo by conducting a 
&gt; 60-day bombing campaign designed to force Yugoslavia to withdraw from 
&gt; Kosovo and allow NATO forces in. The Yugoslav government, effectively the 
&gt; same as the Serbian government by then, showed remarkable resilience, and 
&gt; the air campaign was not nearly as effective as the air forces had hoped. 
&gt; The United States needed a war-ending strategy. This is where the Russians 
&gt; came in.
&gt;
&gt; Russia was weak and ineffective, but it was Serbia's only major ally. The 
&gt; United States prevailed on the Russians to initiate diplomatic contacts 
&gt; and persuade the Serbs that their position was isolated and hopeless. The 
&gt; carrot was that the United State agreed that Russian peacekeeping troops 
&gt; would participate in Kosovo. This was crucial for the Serbians, as it 
&gt; seemed to guarantee the interests of Serbia in Kosovo, as well as the 
&gt; rights of Serbs living in Kosovo. The deal brokered by the Russians called 
&gt; for a withdrawal of the Serbian army from Kosovo and entry into Kosovo of 
&gt; a joint NATO-Russian force, with the Russians guaranteeing that Kosovo 
&gt; would remain part of Serbia.
&gt;
&gt; This ended the war, but the Russians were never permitted -- let alone 
&gt; encouraged -- to take their role in Serbia. The Russians were excluded 
&gt; from the Kosovo Force (KFOR) decision-making process and were isolated 
&gt; from NATO's main force. When Russian troops took control of the airport in 
&gt; Pristina in Kosovo at the end of the war, they were surrounded by NATO 
&gt; troops.
&gt;
&gt; In effect, NATO and the United States reneged on their agreement with 
&gt; Russia. Russian President Boris Yeltsin and the Russian Foreign Ministry 
&gt; caved in the face of this reneging, leaving the Russian military -- which 
&gt; had ordered the Kosovo intervention -- hanging. In 1999, this was a fairly 
&gt; risk-free move by the West. The Russians were in no position to act.
&gt;
&gt; The degree to which Yeltsin's humiliation in Kosovo led to the rise of 
&gt; Vladimir Putin is not fully understood. Putin represented a faction in the 
&gt; intelligence-military community that regarded Kosovo as the last straw. 
&gt; There were, of course, other important factors leading to the rise of 
&gt; Putin, but the Russian perception that the United States had 
&gt; double-crossed them in an act of supreme contempt was a significant 
&gt; factor. Putin came to office committed to regaining Russian intellectual 
&gt; influence after Yeltsin's inertia.
&gt;
&gt; The current decision by the United States and some European countries to 
&gt; grant independence to Kosovo must be viewed in this context. First, it is 
&gt; the only case in Yugoslavia in which borders are to shift because of the 
&gt; presence of a minority. Second, it continues the policy of re-engineering 
&gt; Yugoslavia. Third, it proceeds without either a U.N. or NATO mandate, as 
&gt; an action supported by independent nations -- including the United States 
&gt; and Germany. Finally, it flies in the face of Russian wishes.
&gt;
&gt; This last one is the critical point. The Russians clearly are concerned 
&gt; that this would open the door for the further redrawing of borders, paving 
&gt; the way for Chechen independence movements, for example. But that isn't 
&gt; the real issue. The real issue is that Serbia is an ally of Russia, and 
&gt; the Russians do not want Kosovar independence to happen. From Putin's 
&gt; point of view, he came to power because the West simply wouldn't take 
&gt; Russian wishes seriously. If there were a repeat of that display of 
&gt; indifference, his own authority would be seriously weakened.
&gt;
&gt; Putin is rebuilding the Russian sphere of influence in the former Soviet 
&gt; Union. He is meeting with the Belarusians over reintegration. He is 
&gt; warning Ukraine not to flirt with NATO membership. He is reasserting 
&gt; Russian power in the Caucasus and Central Asia. His theme is simple: 
&gt; Russia is near and strong; NATO is far away and weak. He is trying to 
&gt; define Russian power in the region. Though Kosovo is admittedly peripheral 
&gt; to this region, if no European power is willing to openly challenge 
&gt; Russian troops in Kosovo, then Russia will have succeeded in portraying 
&gt; NATO as a weak and unreliable force.
&gt;
&gt; If the United States and some European powers can create an independent 
&gt; Kosovo without regard to Russian wishes, Putin's prestige in Russia and 
&gt; the psychological foundations of his grand strategy will suffer a huge 
&gt; blow. If Kosovo is granted independence outside the context of the United 
&gt; Nations, where Russia has veto power, he will be facing the same crisis 
&gt; Yeltsin did. If he repeats Yeltsin's capitulation, he will face 
&gt; substantial consequences. Putin and the Russians repeatedly have warned 
&gt; that they wouldn't accept independence for Kosovo, and that such an act 
&gt; would lead to an uncontrollable crisis. Thus far, the Western powers 
&gt; involved appear to have dismissed this. In our view, they shouldn't. It is 
&gt; not so much what Putin wants as the consequences for Putin if he does not 
&gt; act. He cannot afford to acquiesce. He will create a crisis.
&gt;
&gt; Putin has two levers. One is economic. The natural gas flowing to Europe, 
&gt; particularly to Germany, is critical for the Europeans. Putin has a large 
&gt; war chest saved from high energy prices. He can live without exports 
&gt; longer than the Germans can live without imports. It is assumed that he 
&gt; wouldn't carry out this cutoff. This assumption does not take into account 
&gt; how important the Kosovo issue is to the Russians.
&gt;
&gt; The second option is what we might call the "light military" option. 
&gt; Assume that Putin would send a battalion or two of troops by air to 
&gt; Belgrade, load them onto trucks and send them toward Pristina, claiming 
&gt; this as Russia's right under agreements made in 1999. Assume a squadron of 
&gt; Russian aircraft would be sent to Belgrade as well. A Russian naval 
&gt; squadron, including the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, already is 
&gt; headed to the Mediterranean . Obviously, this is not a force that could 
&gt; impose anything on NATO. But would the Germans, for example, be prepared 
&gt; to open fire on these troops?
&gt;
&gt; If that happened, there are other areas of interest to Russia and the West 
&gt; where Russia could exert decisive military power, such as the Baltic 
&gt; states. If Russian troops were to enter the Baltics, would NATO rush 
&gt; reinforcements there to fight them? The Russian light military threat in 
&gt; Kosovo is that any action there could lead to a Russian reaction 
&gt; elsewhere.
&gt;
&gt; The re-engineering of the Balkans always has assumed that there is no 
&gt; broader geopolitical price involved. Granting Kosovo independence would 
&gt; put Russia in a position in which interests that it regards as fundamental 
&gt; are challenged. Even if the West doesn't see why this should be the case, 
&gt; the Russians have made clear that it is so -- and have made statements 
&gt; essentially locking themselves into a response or forcing themselves to 
&gt; accept humiliation. Re-engineering a region where there is no risk is one 
&gt; thing; re-engineering a region where there is substantial risk is another.
&gt;
&gt; In our view, the Russians would actually welcome a crisis. Putin wants to 
&gt; demonstrate that Russia is a great power. That would influence thinking 
&gt; throughout the former Soviet Union, sobering eastern Central Europe as 
&gt; well -- and Poland in particular. Confronting the West as an equal and 
&gt; backing it into a corner is exactly what he would like. In our view, Putin 
&gt; will seize the Kosovo issue not because it is of value in and of itself 
&gt; but because it gives him a platform to move his strategic policy forward.
&gt;
&gt; The Germans have neither the resources nor the appetite for such a crisis. 
&gt; The Americans, bogged down in the Islamic world, are hardly in a position 
&gt; to deal with a crisis over Kosovo. The Russian view is that the West has 
&gt; not reviewed its policies in the Balkans since 1999 and has not grasped 
&gt; that the geopolitics of the situation have changed. Nor, in our view, has 
&gt; Washington or Berlin grasped that a confrontation is exactly what the 
&gt; Russians are looking for.
&gt;
&gt; We expect the West to postpone independence again, and to keep postponing 
&gt; it. But the Albanians might force the issue by declaring unilateral 
&gt; independence. The Russians would actually be delighted to see this. But 
&gt; here is the basic fact: For the United States and its allies, Kosovo is a 
&gt; side issue of no great importance. For the Russians, it is both a 
&gt; hot-button issue and a strategic opportunity. The Russians won't roll over 
&gt; this time. And the asymmetry of perceptions is what crises are made of.
&gt;
&gt; Tell George what you think
&gt;
&gt; Get your own copy
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; Stratfor Premium members can access regular updates, in-depth analysis and 
&gt; expanded coverage on this issue by logging in at http://www.stratfor.com/ 
&gt; . If you are not a Premium member and are interested in gaining full 
&gt; access to Stratfor, please click here [ 
&gt; http://www.stratfor.com/current.php?ref=alert ] to take advantage of our 
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&gt;
&gt; Contact Us
&gt; Analysis Comments - mailto:analysis@stratfor.com
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&gt; ----------------------------------------------------------------------
</description>
    <date>2007-12-19 02:01:29</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-07-01 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/299114_geopolitical-intelligence-report-russia-kosovo-and-the.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>responses@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>fhwandell@accessbee.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>299775</id>
    <title>RE: CLIENT PROJECT - MUST READ
</title>
    <description>   Here's some guidance on the industry trends/market conditions point:
    1. issues concerning petroleum supply/price (as stated) -- this is the
       biggest item to note, especially as it affects MNCs
    2. nationaliziation of oil (anything that might make it harder for the
       chem company to get petroleum, which is their major input)
    3. increasing regulation of chemicals/products or talk of increasing
       regulation (health and environmental concerns, or ways to block MNCs
       from selling things in your AOR)
    4. increasing regulation of industrial facilities or talk of increasing
       regulation (anything to make it harder for a facility to operate or
       for a new facility to be built)
    5. product recalls and import/export issues of products (like the mattel
       fiasco in china last year)
    6. overall treatment of MNCs in your AOR
    
    
    
    
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:bhalla@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, February 27, 2008 7:46 PM
   To: secure@stratfor.com
   Subject: CLIENT PROJECT - MUST READ
   Importance: High
   Another MATCH fishing task that's going to require input from the whole
   team.  This one is due MARCH 4, at 1pm CST to Joe deFeo (cc me). No edit
   required.
    
   Stay tuned for more guidance on this as the project develops. Read the
   tasking order carefully.
    
   TASK:
    
   The client asked for BRIEF bullet points on current and potential risks
   facing the chemicals industry in general, any current or potential risks
   facing the following companies specifically:

   Formosa Plastics Corporation
   CMX
   Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.
   Lyondell
   Rockwood Specialties Group, Inc.
   Chemtura Corporation
   ICC Industries
   Symrise
   Gen-Tek
    
    

   This is a large number of companies, and we will limit aspects of the
   research to keep this manageable for us and the client.

    

   Final product should include the following:

    

    1. Overview of current or potential threats facing the chemicals industry
       in general. (TO BE DONE BY PUBLIC POLICY TEAM -- Kathy in lead)

         a. market conditions, industry trends

   b.      NGOs, labor

    2. Threats facing the above companies or their main products specifically
       (please include brief lists of major products in the final research
       paper). (LIST WILL BE COMPILED AND POLISHED BY RESEARCH TEAM; Items a,
       b, c below will be compiled by the Analysts. Public policy will be
       taking the lead on a lot of this, but the regional analysts will also
       need to provide any relevant bullets on the points below)
   PUBLIC POLICY TEAM -- Will need to provide guidance on what kinds of
   industry trends and market conditions would be most relevant for the
   chemical industry.
     a. Current or potential threats from market conditions, industry trends
        directly affecting the companies (e.g., petroleum supply and price)
     b. Current or potential threats from NGOs, labor campaigns facing the
        companies or their products specifically (e.g., campaigns against PVC
        affect Formosa) 
     c. Current security threats; client only needs to be aware of any known
        security issues facing the companies. Quick notes only, no
        predictions/assessments needed. Do not spend a large amount of time
        on security.

   FOR RESEARCH TEAM --  First find out each company's most important
   products; be on the lookout especially for the following substances/terms:

   .   plastics, polyvinyl chloride (PVC) or vinyl, plastic additives (such
   as Bisphenol A or phthalates), polycarbonate plastics

   .   flame retardants (brominated flame retardants, polybrominated diphenyl
   ethers or PBDEs; e.g., Octa-BDE and Deca-BDE)

   .   perfluorinated chemicals (also called non-stick chemicals, PFOS and
   PFOA)

   .   Substances involving chlorine, fluorine, bromine

    

   Do not spend a large amount of time on a company if there seem to be no
   specific threats to it.

    

   To help determine NGO and labor threats against these specific companies,
   we have researched the facility locations for each. The full list can be
   found below.

    

   The research team will be sending out a well-organized list of the
   products each of these companies produce so you can have that background
   information handy.

    

   .         Formosa Plastics Corporation (biggest PVC resins manufacturer
   worldwide; many subsidiaries, focus on the Taiwanese parent and Formosa
   Plastics USA)

    

   LOCATIONS:

    

   EAST ASIA - Taiwan

   NORTH AMERICA - US

    

   .         CMX (previously Schoor De Palma; not sure what chemicals work it
   does)

    

   LOCATIONS:

    

   NORTH AMERICA - New Jersey, Arizona, Pennsylvania, New York, Maryland,
   Florida, Nevada and Mexico

    

   .         Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (major supplier of atmospheric
   and specialty gases [e.g., hydrogen] for industrial, healthcare, and
   commercial use; semiconductor materials; natural gas liquefaction;
   manufacturing locations worldwide)

   .          

   LOCATIONS:

    

   AFRICA - South Africa

   LATAM - Brazil, Mexico, Trinidad and Tobago

   NORTH AMERICA - Canada

   EAST ASIA - China, HK, Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Taiwan,
   Japan, Thailand

   SOUTH ASIA - India

   EUROPE - Belgium, Czech Repub, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy,
   Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, UK

   MIDEAST - Algeria, Turkey, Israel, Qatar, UAE

    

    

   .         Lyondell (Houston-based; big producer of ethylenes,
   polyproylenes -- also diacetyl [popcorn lung chemical], I think; refinery
   operations)

    

   LOCATIONS:

    

   NORTH AMERICA - US

   LATAM - Brazil

   EUROPE - Netherlands, France

   EAST ASIA - China, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan

   SOUTH ASIA - India

   .         Rockwood Specialties Group, Inc. (U.S.-based manufacturer of
   specialty chemicals, among other things; focus on the chem., additives,
   coatings divisions)

    

   LOCATIONS:

    

   EUROPE - France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden,
   Switzerland, UK, Austria, Czech Republic

    

   EAST ASIA- Australia, China, Singapore, Taiwan

    

   LATAM- Brazil, Mexico, Chile

    

   NORTH AMERICA- US, Canada

    

   MESA - India, Turkey,

    

   AFRICA - South Africa

    

   .         Chemtura Corporation (U.S. company; makes plastic additives,
   flame retardants, fluorinated compounds -- big trouble, all)

    

   LOCATIONS:

    

   EAST ASIA - China, Australia, South Korea, Thailand, Singapore

   LATAM - Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Ecuador

   EURASIA - Czech Rep, France, Greece, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Kazakhstan,
   Moldova, Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia,
   Switzerland, UK, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Belarus

   MESA - Turkey, India, Saudi Arabia

    

   (to check what kind of activities in each country -
   http://www.chemtura.com/corporate/v/index.jsp?vgnextoid=7f0597b9cc85c010VgnVCM10000052d7010aRCRD&amp;vgnextchannel=7f0597b9cc85c010VgnVCM10000052d7010aRCRD&amp;vgnextfmt=default)

    

    

   .         ICC Industries (pharma chemicals and others; might still be
   involved in generic drug manufacturing)

   LOCATIONS:

    

   EURASIA - United Kingdom, Hungary, Romania, Czech Rep, Slovakia, Russia
   (production facilities); Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Belgium,
   Netherlands, Poland Serbia (trading offices)

    

   EAST ASIA - China (production facilities); Indonesia, Japan (trading
   offices)

    

   MESA - Israel (production facilities); Turkey (Trading offices)

    

    

   .         Symrise (German -- food additives and fragrance; what
   specifically?)

    

   LOCATIONS:

    

   LATAM - Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Taiwan, Thailand,
   Venezuela

   EURASIA - Poland, Russia, Netherlands, Ukraine, UK, Italy, Spain

   MESA - India, Turkey

   EAST ASIA - Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand

   AFRICA - South Africa

    

    

   .         Gen-Tek (pharma/personal care chemicals, fuel additives)

    

   LOCATIONS:

    

   NORTH AMERICA - US, Canada

   LATAM - Brazil

    

    
</description>
    <date>2008-02-28 02:15:27</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/299775_re-client-project-must-read-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>morson@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>309308</id>
    <title>Re: FOR COMMENT - Conclusion to Egypt monograph - Contemporary
	Challenges: Life After Mubarak
</title>
    <description>   Hola Reva,
   Can we go ahead and edit the for comment version of the monograph? Thanks!

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, December 12, 2011 4:22:40 PM
   Subject: FOR COMMENT - Conclusion to Egypt monograph -
   Contemporary        Challenges: Life After Mubarak

    

   Contemporary Challenges: Life After Mubarak

    

   Early 2011 was a dramatic period in modern Egyptian history. The
   mainstream mediaa**s narrative on the Arab Spring portrayed popular
   uprisings as the driving force that swept away the regime of Hosni Mubarak
   and opened the door to democracy. But a closer examination indicates that
   the rules of the past still apply. Concentration of power, physical
   isolation from the outside world, and dependence upon outside forces for
   economic security remain the trifecta that drives Egyptian society and
   governmental development.

   To understand the Arab Spring one must first understand the factors that
   led to it. This is a discussion that must begin, not with the aspirations
   of those that protested in Tahrir square, but with the strategic
   imperatives of the military, the true vanguard of the Egyptian state.

   Nassera**s plan to elevate the military as the vanguard of society worked,
   but in years after Nassera**s death the military itself shifted position.
   Rather than partnering with the Soviets to create a regional sphere of
   influence, the military evolved its vanguard position in Egyptian society
   into a system of ossified control. The state still owned nearly everything
   of worth, but it was managed by and for the benefit of the military brass.
   Everything from banks to import/export to agriculture -- already heavily
   influenced by the military under the vanguard system -- was consolidated
   into a series of military oligarchies. Rather than working to elevate
   Egypt economically, the military oligarchs mostly divvied up the local
   spoils and lived large.

   This was a stable system from the late-1970s until the mid-2000s.
   Egypta**s shielded geography limited the ability of any international
   economic interest to challenge the military staffsa** personal fiefdoms.
   Egypta**s partnership with the Americans mitigated international pressure
   of all sorts, and in many ways even Egypta**s ostracism from the Arab
   world due to its treaty with Israel allowed Egypta**s generals to rule
   Egypt however they saw fit.

   As (now deposed) President Mubarak aged, however, an internal challenge
   arose to the military oligarchy in the form of the former presidenta**s
   son, Gamal Mubarak, who wanted to transform Egypt from a military
   oligarchy into a more traditional Egyptian dynasty. Doing this required
   the breaking of the militarya**s hold on the economy. Gamal and his allies
   -- often with the express assistance of international institutions like
   the World Bank -- worked to a**privatizea** Egyptian state assets to
   themselves. This process was a direct threat to the militarya**s political
   and economic position at the top of Egyptian society. The military also
   viewed Gamal, who never completed his military service, as a political
   neophyte, incapable of understanding and managing the countrya**s security
   imperatives.

   The result was the a**Arab Springa**. In the months leading up to the
   January demonstrations, Egypta**s top generals were delivering very stern
   ultimatums to the president to abandon any hope of passing the reins to
   Gamal while looking at their options to unseat Mubarak via more
   unconventional means. The military strategically positioned itself early
   on in the demonstration as the honest broker and guardian of the
   protesters, taking care to avoid a violent crackdown on the demonstrators
   while Mubaraka**s internal security forces were vilified on the streets.
   Such a light hand was not due to lack of capacity, but due to lack of
   need. The demonstrations provided the generals with the means to dismantle
   the Mubarak legacy, the biggest liability to their own livelihood, while
   maintaining the paramount role of the military. 

   But perhaps the most central indication that the a**revolutiona** was
   misconstrued comes from the participation levels. On the day that Mubarak
   ultimately stepped down the protests reached their peak. By the most
   aggressive estimate only 750,000 people -- less than 1 percent of the
   population of densely populated Egypt a** took to the streets. In true
   revolutions such as that which overthrew Communism in Central Europe or
   the shah in Iran, the proportion regularly breached 10 percent and on
   occasions even touched 50 percent. In short, Egypta**s Arab Spring was a
   palace coup, not a revolution.

   But the militarya**s Mubarak removal strategy did not come without risks.
   The military would much prefer to return to the days of ruling behind the
   scenes while leaving day to day governing to a civilian government that
   ultimately answers to the generals. But the political opening that the
   military helped to create has also greatly complicated matters: the
   military must now employ a much more complex balancing act at home to
   altogether keep the civilian government impotent, the opposition divided
   and foreign funding flowing toward a half-hearted democratic transition.

   With trade and tourism severely curtailed as a result of Egypta**s
   political unrest, the military must place extra effort in keeping up
   democratic appearances with the west now that the country is once against
   dependent upon the economic largess of outside powers. In dealing with the
   opposition at home, the military is no stranger to divide-and-conquer
   tactics and has maintained a robust intelligence service to keep tabs on
   already severely divided opposition. But the signs of strain are already
   showing, as the military now needs to learn how to manage an
   Islamist-concentrated opposition in parliament as opposed to its usual
   practice of making mass arrests and breaking up sporadic demonstrations.
   The rewriting of Egypta**s constitution a** a process that the military
   intends to fully control a** is likely to be one of several major
   disappointments that the opposition is likely to contend with in the
   months ahead, adding more friction to the already delicate arrangements
   the military has been seeking out with key opposition factions in trying
   to remove this fight from the streets.

   The more attention the Egyptian military must devote to internal matters,
   the more its problems will grow in the immediate neighborhood. A
   US-Arab-Turkish consensus on the need to contain Iran has Syria to the
   north in the regional spotlight, where a domestic political crisis is fast
   evolving into a regional proxy battle. Meanwhile, Islamist Palestinian
   movement Hamas is preparing itself for change to come out of Damascus
   (where its politbureau is currently headquartered,) while trying to
   leverage the political evolution that is already well under way in Egypt.
   The political legitimacy being granted to the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt
   via this political transition has provided Hamas, an outgrowth of the MB,
   with an opportunity to rebrand itself as a mainstream political operator,
   one that is just as capable as the Egyptian MB to break out of political
   isolation in Gaza. 

   But Hamas will have to do more than a public relations campaign to break
   out of isolation.  The Egyptian military, which shares Israela**s interest
   in keeping Hamas contained and the Sinai buffer clear of foreign threats,
   remains the biggest obstacle to Hamasa** strategic objective of dominating
   the Palestinian political scene without Egyptian and Israeli shackles.
   Hamas would like to see a political evolution in Egypt that results in an
   Egyptian Islamist government friendly to Hamas and hostile to Israeli
   interests. This is an ambitious agenda, but is one likely worth working
   toward from the point of view of the Hamas leadership. The best chance
   that Hamas has in accelerating this evolution is by creating a crisis of
   legitimacy for the Egyptian military by drawing the military into a
   conflict with Israel. This can be accomplished in a variety of ways, and
   there is no shortage of militant proxies that have benefited from the
   Egyptian militarya**s political distractions to expand their area of
   operations in the Sinai. Israel is already frustrated by the Egyptian
   militarya**s slackened control over the Sinai and tends to revert to a
   more preemptive regional posture when neighborhood threats cross a certain
   line. Add to this the potential for Iran and Syria to exercise their
   militant proxy options to take the attention off regime change campaigns
   in Damascus, and Egypt could find itself in the midst of a Sinai crisis
   with Israel that both sides have spent the past 33 years desperately
   trying to avoid.

   This is not an evolution that will take place overnight. After all, Israel
   and Egypt went to war in 1973 to create the very peace that they are
   trying to preserve. This peace treaty is the foundation of external
   security for both sides of the Sinai peninsula and it will take a lot of
   organization and effort to break it apart, but the coming years will also
   put place the Arab-Israeli balance of power, as defined by peace between
   Egypt and Israel, under an unprecedented level of strain.

   --
   Maverick Fisher
   Director, Writers and Graphics
   STRATFOR
   221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
   Austin, TX 78701
   T: +1 512 744 4322 | F: +1 512 744 4334
   www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-12-13 17:02:27</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/309308_re-for-comment-conclusion-to-egypt-monograph-contemporary.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>McCullar@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>fisher@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>311299</id>
    <title>[Fwd: Trouble Book PDF v3 - FOR REVIEW]
</title>
    <description>   Stick, please review this at your leisure (though don't dilly-dally too
   much). I still need to add two lines of text to the back cover and have
   Robert Inks give it a "back-read." We're hoping to push the button on it
   next week.

   I think it's looking pretty good.
   --
   Michael McCullar
   Senior Editor, Special Projects
   STRATFOR
   E-mail: mccullar@stratfor.com
   Tel: 512.744.4307
   Cell: 512.970.5425
   Fax: 512.744.4334
</description>
    <date>2010-02-19 22:02:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/311299_-fwd-trouble-book-pdf-v3-for-review-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mccullar@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/24/24856_Trouble_v3.pdf</path><size>2176756</size><md5></md5><sha1>4cf9b1e9ef67f160cb993ca7e8773f7c2a1adb7b</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/24/24857_Trouble_Cover_v1.jpg</path><size>104920</size><md5></md5><sha1>28a9f539a0698b1412d10c73a7d27afb0679daf2</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>319497</id>
    <title>[Fwd: Trouble Book PDF v3 - FOR REVIEW]
</title>
    <description>   Fred, here's the formatted version of the PI book. Please take a look and
   let me know what you think. We're hoping to push the button on it next
   week (I still have to tweak text on the back cover and have someone like
   Robert Inks to a read-through).

   I think it's looking pretty good.
   --
   Michael McCullar
   Senior Editor, Special Projects
   STRATFOR
   E-mail: mccullar@stratfor.com
   Tel: 512.744.4307
   Cell: 512.970.5425
   Fax: 512.744.4334
</description>
    <date>2010-02-19 22:05:17</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/319497_-fwd-trouble-book-pdf-v3-for-review-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mccullar@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/24/24856_Trouble_v3.pdf</path><size>2176756</size><md5></md5><sha1>4cf9b1e9ef67f160cb993ca7e8773f7c2a1adb7b</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/24/24857_Trouble_Cover_v1.jpg</path><size>104920</size><md5></md5><sha1>28a9f539a0698b1412d10c73a7d27afb0679daf2</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>320773</id>
    <title>[OS] CHINA - China drills more wells, seeds clouds amid drought
</title>
    <description>   China drills more wells, seeds clouds amid drought
   Thursday, March 25, 2010; 4:40 AM

   http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/25/AR2010032500046.html

   BEIJING -- Emergency wells were being drilled and cloud-seeding operations
   carried out in southern China, where the worst drought in decades has left
   millions of people without water and caused more than 1,000 schools to
   close, officials said Thursday.

   Provincial and national land resources bureau officials met in Kunming,
   capital of the hardest-hit province of Yunnan, to discuss details of
   deploying workers to dig wells and increase cloud seeding and other aid to
   people in need of drinking water, according to a director at the Yunnan
   Land Resources Bureau, surnamed Ma.

   "The situation here will get worse in the coming months before it gets any
   better, but hopefully with more wells and water being diverted to those in
   need, we can help ease the situation," said Ma, who like many Chinese
   officials would give only his surname.

   The drought, which has left southwestern China suffering since last year,
   has affected about 61 million people and left more than 12 million acres
   (about 5 million hectares) barren in Guizhou, Yunnan, Sichuan, Chongqing
   and Guangxi, the official Xinhua News Agency cited the Ministry of Civil
   Affairs as saying.

   For parts of Yunnan, it is the worst drought in a century, with about 5.4
   million people facing water shortages, Ma said.

   Workers there are drilling daily in hopes of digging 1,035 wells by
   mid-May, with 52 already functioning and 288 under way, providing 20
   percent of the needed drinking water, he said.

   "Cloud seeding hasn't been very successful, so even though we are drilling
   for wells and diverting water from dams to people in need, new areas will
   begin to suffer as long as there is no rain," said Ma.

   No details were given on the cloud-seeding efforts. China has been
   experimenting with weather modification for decades, using a technique
   known as cloud-seeding to induce rainfall, though international scientists
   say there has never been proof that such methods produce results.

   China's huge land mass means drought can occur in one region while others
   have record-breaking temperatures and severe storms that can cause floods.
   A massive sandstorm earlier this week covered Beijing and other cities in
   northern China in a layer of sand and grit.

   Since late 2009, mountainous Yunnan and its neighboring provinces have
   received little rainfall, causing crop and livestock losses worth 23.7
   billion yuan ($3.47 billion), Xinhua said.

   Neighboring Guizhou province has been hit with its worst drought in 80
   years, while in Guangxi it is the worst in 50 years, according to a report
   posted on the National Flood Control and Drought relief Web site.

   In Guangxi, 1,100 schools were closed in the towns of Hechi and Baise this
   week, affecting nearly 190,000 students and teachers, according to Xinhua.

   "We're sent out teams to dig and drill for wells this week in regions that
   have been hardest hit in the province," said an official who answered the
   phone at the Guangxi Land Resources Bureau, who refused to give his name.

   In Guangxi, where sugar cane crops have perished and white sugar
   production is expected to decline this year, 67 producers have been forced
   to shut down, nearly double the number during the same period last year,
   Xinhua reported.

   Military personnel have also been deployed to the disaster areas to
   transport water from Zhejiang in the east to Guizhou and Yunnan, according
   to state broadcaster China Central Television.

   CCTV showed footage on its Thursday noon newscast of soldiers unloading
   bottled drinking water from military trucks at a village in Yunnan.

   Further south, the severe drought has dropped the Mekong River to its
   lowest level in nearly 20 years after an early end to the 2009 wet season
   and low rainfall during the monsoons, according to documents drafted by
   the Mekong River Commission.

   The Mekong, which originates in the Tibetan Plateau and flows to southeast
   Asia through Yunnan, is the lifeblood for 65 million people in six
   countries - Cambodia, China, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar and Vietnam.

 --
 Daniel Grafton
 Intern, STRATFOR
 daniel.grafton@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-03-25 15:04:48</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/320773_-os-china-china-drills-more-wells-seeds-clouds-amid-drought-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>os@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:os@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>daniel.grafton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>320934</id>
    <title>[OS] CHINA/GV - China drills more wells, seeds clouds amid drought
</title>
    <description>   China drills more wells, seeds clouds amid drought

   http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-03/25/content_9643732.htm

   3-25-10
   BEIJING: Emergency wells were being drilled and cloud-seeding operations
   carried out in southern China, where the worst drought in decades has left
   millions of people without water and caused more than 1,000 schools to
   close, officials said Thursday.

   Provincial and national land resources bureau officials met in Kunming,
   capital of the hardest-hit province of Yunnan, to discuss details of
   deploying workers to dig wells and increase cloud seeding and other aid to
   people in need of drinking water, according to a director at the Yunnan
   Land Resources Bureau, surnamed Ma.

   "The situation here will get worse in the coming months before it gets any
   better, but hopefully with more wells and water being diverted to those in
   need, we can help ease the situation," said Ma.

   The drought, which has left southwestern China suffering since last year,
   has affected about 61 million people and left more than 12 million acres
   (about 5 million hectares) barren in Guizhou, Yunnan, Sichuan, Chongqing
   and Guangxi, Xinhua News Agency cited the Ministry of Civil Affairs as
   saying.

   For parts of Yunnan, it is the worst drought in a century, with about 5.4
   million people facing water shortages, Ma said.

   Workers there are drilling daily in hopes of digging 1,035 wells by
   mid-May, with 52 already functioning and 288 under way, providing 20
   percent of the needed drinking water, he said.

   "Cloud seeding hasn't been very successful, so even though we are drilling
   for wells and diverting water from dams to people in need, new areas will
   begin to suffer as long as there is no rain," said Ma.

   No details were given on the cloud-seeding efforts. China has been
   experimenting with weather modification for decades, using a technique
   known as cloud-seeding to induce rainfall.

   China's huge land mass means drought can occur in one region while others
   have record-breaking temperatures and severe storms that can cause floods.
   A massive sandstorm earlier this week covered Beijing and other cities in
   northern China in a layer of sand and grit.

   Since late 2009, mountainous Yunnan and its neighboring provinces have
   received little rainfall, causing crop and livestock losses worth 23.7
   billion yuan ($3.47 billion), Xinhua said.

   Neighboring Guizhou province has been hit with its worst drought in 80
   years, while in Guangxi it is the worst in 50 years, according to a report
   posted on the National Flood Control and Drought relief Web site.

   In Guangxi, 1,100 schools were closed in the towns of Hechi and Baise this
   week, affecting nearly 190,000 students and teachers, according to Xinhua.

   "We've sent out teams to dig and drill for wells this week in regions that
   have been hardest hit in the province," said an official who answered the
   phone at the Guangxi Land Resources Bureau, who refused to give his name.

   In Guangxi, where sugar cane crops have perished and white sugar
   production is expected to decline this year, 67 producers have been forced
   to shut down, nearly double the number during the same period last year,
   Xinhua reported.

   Military personnel have also been deployed to the disaster areas to
   transport water from Zhejiang in the east to Guizhou and Yunnan, according
   to China Central Television (CCTV).

   CCTV showed footage on its Thursday noon newscast of soldiers unloading
   bottled drinking water from military trucks at a village in Yunnan.

   Further south, the severe drought has dropped the Mekong River to its
   lowest level in nearly 20 years after an early end to the 2009 wet season
   and low rainfall during the monsoons, according to documents drafted by
   the Mekong River Commission.

   The Mekong, which originates in the Tibetan Plateau and flows to southeast
   Asia through Yunnan, is the lifeblood for 65 million people in six
   countries - Cambodia, China, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar and Vietnam.
</description>
    <date>2010-03-25 18:41:08</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/320934_-os-china-gv-china-drills-more-wells-seeds-clouds-amid.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>os@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>clint.richards@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:os@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>321063</id>
    <title>Re: Ranch
</title>
    <description>   Very funny. Hawley must have told you I got it stuck last weekend.

   Steve McCoy wrote:

 Looks like it is getting another good rain now.

 Be careful if you go to the Mexican Flat - you might get your suburban stuck.....

  

   --
   Michael McCullar
   Senior Editor, Special Projects
   STRATFOR
   E-mail: mccullar@stratfor.com
   Tel: 512.744.4307
   Cell: 512.970.5425
   Fax: 512.744.4334
</description>
    <date>2010-03-16 11:13:21</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/321063_re-ranch-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mccullar@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bill.daves@e2mpartners.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Steve.McCoy@transwestern.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Alan.Harrington@transwestern.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bhawley@lockelord.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>jimtarpley@att.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>339396</id>
    <title>RE: Insight - The Dems &amp; Dirty Tricks ** Internal Use Only - Pls Do Not Forward ** 
</title>
    <description>   Well, look at it this way. The Dems quit pretending and admitted to
   themselves that to win it you have to get off your high horse and play
   dirty when you have to. And they won.
    
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, November 07, 2008 7:41 AM
   To: secure@stratfor.com
   Subject: Insight - The Dems &amp; Dirty Tricks ** Internal Use Only - Pls Do
   Not Forward **
   ** Internal Use Only - Pls Do Not Forward **
    
   1) The black Dems were caught stuffing the ballot boxes in Philly and Ohio
   as reported the night of the election and Sen. McCain chose not to
   fight.   The matter is not dead inside the party.  It now becomes a matter
   of sequence now as to how and when to "out".  
    
   2) It appears the Dems "made a donation" to Rev. Jesse (no, they would
   never do that!) to keep his yap shut after his diatribe about the Jews and
   Israel.  A little bird told me it was a "nice six-figure donation".  This
   also becomes a matter of how and when to out.  
    
   3) The hunt is on for the sleezy Russian money into O-mans coffers.  A
   smoking gun has already been found.  Will get more on this when the time
   is right.  My source was too giddy to continue.  Can you say Clinton and
   ChiCom funny money?   This also becomes a matter of how and when to out.  
</description>
    <date>2008-11-07 14:45:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/339396_re-insight-the-dems-and-dirty-tricks-internal-use-only-pls.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>howerton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>347043</id>
    <title>Insight - McCain #5 ** internal use only - Pls do not forward ** 
</title>
    <description>   Further --
    
   After discussions with his inner circle, which explains the delay in his
   speech, McCain decided not to pursue the voter fraud in PA and Ohio,
   despite his staff's desire to make it an issue.  He said no.  Staff felt
   they could get a federal injunction to stop the process.  McCain felt the
   crowds assembled in support of Obama and such would be detrimental to our
   country and it would do our nation no good for this to drag out like last
   go around, coupled with the possibility of domestic violence. 
    
   My guy said many were shocked, but after reflecting upon his decision,
   thought he put the country first.  
    
   -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    
   Curiously, there are whispers of McCain being set up by the Cheney/Bush
   crowd, because McCain was never liked by either.   Some are shocked he did
   so well.  Coupled with serious errors in tactics.  Some made no sense. 
   For example, the Hispanics in Florida loved Palin but his camp would never
   send her there when easy money was to be had.  My guy said Rove and
   company want to bring in someone they can control next go around.  McCain
   was not controllable.  Jeb Bush's name is being discussed.   Source
   advised Rick Davis was an arsehole and McCain's econ team had no clue,
   trusting in academics vice business-people.  The Jewish crowd was split
   and money never flowed.  For example, McCain staff only gave $3000.00 for
   nationwide ads, when Obama put in $500,000 targeting the Jewish community
   in Florida alone. 
    
   I'll see what more I can collect on this. 
</description>
    <date>2008-11-05 14:40:28</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/347043_insight-mccain-5-internal-use-only-pls-do-not-forward-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>354758</id>
    <title>[OS] INDIA - Seven die in Assam flash floods, more than a million displaced by heavy rains over past three days
</title>
    <description>   ast Updated: Monday, 10 September 2007, 12:17 GMT 13:17 UK

   [IMG] E-mail this to a friend  [IMG] Printable version      

   Seven die in Assam flash floods                                          
   By Subir Bhaumik                                                         
   BBC News, Calcutta                                                       
                                                                            
                                              Assam floods (Pic: Subhamoy   
                                              Bhattacharya)                 
                                              Parts of the state have been  
                                              cut off (Pics: Subhamoy       
                                              Bhattacharya)                 
                                                                            
   At least seven people have died in flash floods in India's north-eastern 
   state of Assam, officials said.                                          
                                                                            
   The floods followed heavy rains over the past three days and officials   
   say more than a million people have been displaced.                      
                                                                            
   The Brahmaputra, the region's biggest river, and its tributaries are     
   flowing above danger level, they said.                                   
                                                                            
   Flood waters have submerged parts of the highway which connects the      
   state with the rest of India.                                            
                                                                            
   Stuck                                                                    
                                                                            
   Eyewitnesses say thousands of trucks and buses carrying supplies and     
   passengers are stranded on the highway.                                  
                                                                            
                                              Assam floods (Pic: Subhamoy   
                                              Bhattacharya)                 
                                              A million people have been    
                                              displaced by the floods       
                                                                            
   "I think we are stuck here for a few days until the rivers recede,"      
   truck driver Kikar Singh, who is transporting wheat to Assam, said.      
                                                                            
   His vehicle is stuck in waist-deep water on the national highway near    
   Tihu.                                                                    
                                                                            
   Motorists say an alternate route meant for smaller vehicles, through the 
   hills of the neighbouring state of Meghalaya, is not safe either.        
                                                                            
   "This route is very dangerous. The road has been washed away in several  
   places and is submerged in many areas. My car was nearly swept away,     
   this was a nightmare drive, I was very tense," schoolteacher Smita       
   Mishra, who travelled on the road said.                                  
                                                                            
   The only rail link between Assam and the rest of the country is still    
   intact but only just.                                                    
                                                                            
   Railway officials say the condition of some of the bridges needed        
   extensive repairs after last month's floods - but before the repairs     
   could be completed, the floods were back again.                          
                                                                            
   The world's largest river island, Majuli, is facing a split down the     
   middle due to extensive erosion and floods.                              
                                                                            
   Extensive damage                                                         
                                                                            
   One of the embankments that protects this world heritage site from the   
   Brahmaputra river is on the verge of collapse.                           
                                                                            
   This is the third time floods have ravaged Assam this year.              
                                                                            
   The damage to roads, bridges and rail tracks has been extensive -        
   estimated by the Assam government at around $366 million (1.5 billion    
   rupees).                                                                 
                                                                            
   And the loss to standing crops and village houses has been substantial - 
   around $245 million (one billion rupees), according to Assam's           
   government. "But before we could recover from the two earlier floods, we 
   have been hit by a third wave," Assam government spokesman, Dinesh Deka, 
   said.                                                                    
                                                                            
   Assam has been spared the usual heavy floods in the last two years but   
   this year's losses would be one of the heaviest in recent memory, Mr     
   Deka said.                                                               
                                                                            
   Millions have been affected by recent floods across parts of South Asia. 
   Hundreds of people have died.                                            

   http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/6986942.stm
</description>
    <date>2007-09-10 18:56:32</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/354758_-os-india-seven-die-in-assam-flash-floods-more-than-a.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>intelligence@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>os@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/1/1938_o.gif</path><size>43</size><md5></md5><sha1>56d45f8a17f5078a20af9962c992ca4678450765</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/1/1943_email.gif</path><size>70</size><md5></md5><sha1>ef43912cdb6f8a5f0342dfe5855c1091afff4414</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/1/1949_dot_629.gif</path><size>75</size><md5></md5><sha1>e5efbd050e26eecafd12d2b09a6258b3e77b3742</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/2/2059_999999.gif</path><size>43</size><md5></md5><sha1>70b9ee314d9c0af8bc99f1c98656b5aca31d11ed</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/2/2086_print.gif</path><size>73</size><md5></md5><sha1>5eb70ec984dbe6f86824465d99eab6430ce32a44</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/30/30150__44106907_floods_203index.jpg</path><size>13016</size><md5></md5><sha1>d9fe929f2ed8943361cb6d258da21ccc5a0d28aa</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/30/30154__44106909_assam_flood_203.jpg</path><size>13023</size><md5></md5><sha1>a8a81e2b031247b248e8cc4c476c6760b8895c1e</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>355524</id>
    <title>[OS] INDIA: Better Late than Never - India talks about tackling climate change
</title>
    <description>   Better Late than Never - India talks about tackling climate change
   30 July 2007
   http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_id=9567258&amp;fsrc=RSS

   PERHAPS it was the prospect of monsoon flooding of the kind that has left
   800 dead on the Indian subcontinent this month. Or maybe the push came
   from another of the recent dire predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel
   on Climate Change (IPCC)-for example, that the Ganges, Brahmaputra and
   Indus could become seasonal rivers by 2035. Whatever the reason, India has
   decided to formulate a policy on climate change.

   On July 13th Manmohan Singh, the prime minister, chaired the first meeting
   of a committee picked for the task. Besides the scholarly Mr Singh, the
   National Council on Climate Change includes top ministers and bureaucrats,
   academics, journalists and, representing industry, Ratan Tata, chairman of
   India's biggest company.

   The committee's first act was to commission three of its members-including
   Rajendra Pachauri, an Indian academic who also heads the IPCC-to draft the
   wished-for policy. This should be approved in time for a United Nations
   climate conference in Bali in December, at which negotiations towards a
   successor to the Kyoto agreement on cutting carbon emissions, which
   expires in 2012, are expected to begin.

   None of this is likely to change India's attitude towards
   emissions-cutting. It ratified Kyoto but, as a developing country, is not
   obliged by the agreement to curb its emissions. It would probably not
   consider being bound to any pact that said that it must.

   India's argument in support of this position is twofold. As its annual
   emissions are relatively modest per capita-at about 1.1 tonnes of carbon
   per Indian in 2004, one-quarter of the global average-it argues that its
   greenhouse-gas contributions are modest. Like China, India also argues
   that it has a right to develop its economy, and so alleviate the woes of
   its impoverished people, free of carbon-cutting constraints.

   The first argument is nonsense. With its vast population, India was
   already the fifth-biggest carbon emitter in 2004, with Russia and Japan in
   its sights. The second is harder to refute. During a decade of rapid
   economic growth-which is now running at around 8%-some 15% of Indians have
   been withdrawn from poverty. But 22% remain poor, according to last year's
   official figures.

   Sobering as this is, it is not the grand let-off that India (and China)
   would have it be. As the IPCC's studies have shown-and perhaps also the
   current floods in China and South Asia-poor people in hot countries will
   suffer from climate change most. Of course, India has less moral
   responsibility to cut carbon emissions than the rich, temperate countries
   of the West. But, arguably, it has more reason to do so.

   Most Indians sniff at this. They suspect that the whole global discussion
   on climate change is an effort by rich countries-above all, America-to
   palm off the cost of their environmental crimes on the developing world.
   Dr Pachauri explains: "The impression is very well entrenched that
   developed countries aren't going to do anything, they're just going to
   point fingers at India, China, Brazil and say: `You deal with the
   problem.'"

   Indeed, as a member of the Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development
   and Climate, India has had a particularly close look at rich countries
   doing nothing. Comprising two Kyoto spoilers, America and Australia, as
   well as South Korea, China and Japan, the partnership was established last
   year to promote transfers of green technology among its members. A patent
   fig-leaf for the refusal of America and Australia to ratify Kyoto, it has
   achieved little.

   Still, even if India is not about to volunteer to curb its carbon
   emissions, its new policy will at least be a nudge in the right direction.
   It is likely to advocate, if not impose, improved energy efficiencies-for
   example, in the country's burgeoning carmaking industry. It might also
   lead to a more rigorous collection of environmental data. Both things
   would be useful, if not reason for India's poor farmers, increasingly
   threatened by flash floods and long droughts, to cheer.

   And yet the mere fact of the promised policy suggests that India's
   decision-makers are slightly more willing to accept some responsibility
   for managing the changing climate. That is something. As Dr Pachauri says:
   "Even in the highest levels of government in India, there's a realisation
   that we can't develop in the same way that Western countries have."
</description>
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    <releasedate>2012-08-19 09:00:00</releasedate>
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  <doc>
    <id>363668</id>
    <title>Re: FOR EDIT - GUATEMALA MASSACRE TACTICAL ANALYSIS - 110519
</title>
    <description>   blue

   On 5/19/11 9:11 AM, Reginald Thompson wrote:

     -----------------
     Reginald Thompson

     Cell: (011) 504 8990-7741

     OSINT
     Stratfor

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Colby Martin" &lt;colby.martin@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: analysts@stratfor.com
     Sent: Thursday, May 19, 2011 9:59:41 AM
     Subject: Re: FOR EDIT - GUATEMALA MASSACRE TACTICAL ANALYSIS - 110519

     By saying the elites represent the state we mean so in terms of
     practicality.  If you look back over the history of Guatemala, the
     landed elites ARE the government/economy.  During the conflict it was
     these elites and the CIA who overthrew the Guzman government after they
     became fearful the United Fruit Company wasn't the last landowners who
     were going to lose their unused land.   Sandra (and any other candidate)
     will always have problems with the elites when they seek the indigenous
     vote because the elites believe (and correctly) that they are the
     country, and without them you may when a popular vote, but you won't
     have any actual power to speak of.  For all intent, they believe
     themselves to be Guatemala, and in their minds without them the country
     is nothing more than a collection of tribes (and they mean that as
     racist as it sounds).

     This attack is significant and "different" for a few reasons.  It is the
     worst massacre in Guatemala since 96.  Guatemalans themselves (who live
     with constant violence) are particularly spooked by this event, the
     savagery of it, and the fact that civilians were killed for no other
     reason than they were there.  It is obvious they did not have the
     intelligence the Zetas were after, and more than likely the Zetas
     already knew where Salguero was and what he was doing.  So the question
     is, why kill a bunch of poor farmers who don't know something you
     already do know? 
     It is seen as an attack on both aspects of society, the indigenous
     trabajadores and the landed elite, with the message  being "we are here
     and if you get in the way you are dead."   The use of Mexican Zetas
     instead of Guatemalans (according to a survivor) is also significant
     because of the politics in the region.  When I was there in 2006-2007
     the Colombians were pushing into Guatemala to take over the drug
     corridors. Sure it wasn't just the Colombian links to the Zetas, BLO,
     Chapo, etc? These guys tend to come up from the south to hand over
     drugs, conduct business with Mexicans and Central Americans, etc but
     they don't "control" the routes  The story on the Columbians was
     anecdotal.  Have a good friend who is ex D2/G2 who told me that one of
     our buddies had just been killed by Colombians outside of Moralas (where
     some of these workers killed in the massacre were from) and that the
     Colombians were pushing into Guatemala to take over the trade.  He said
     that he thought it was "funny" the Colombians thought they could just
     "take over" as this was Guatemala and it would always be controled by
     Guatemalans.  His point was that they wouldn't scare easily, and if that
     is what the Colombians thought, they were in for a suprise.  The
     Guatemalans fought back with particular ferocity, because Guatemala was
     going to be run by Guatemalans, and no one else.  The Mexican cartels
     seem to understand this, and although there are Mexican DTOs in the
     country, it is so because they work WITH the Guatemalans who control the
     routes .    Even if this was a one off attack on Otto Salguero and his
     family, the use of Mexicans would still be significant.  In a country
     where having someone killed cost about 7 USD, it was unnecessary unless
     their was a larger point being made. 

     I think the cartels are gearing up for something we long knew was
     coming.  They are possibly no longer willing to share the spoils with
     the Guatemalans, and so they are now willing to push the war into
     Guatemala on a larger scale in order to take the routes Sure that's not
     reading too much into this though? It could just be a case of "remember
     who we are, don't fuck with us", not so much a message of rejection to
     the Guatemalans.  It absolutly could be reading too much into it, and
     that is why we should hedge that is a possibility, not a certainty.  But
     considering the issues we speak of in the piece, I do not believe this
     was just a heads up.  This of course will bring in the military but not
     to stop the violence, but to secure the routes for Sandra and her ilk I
     think we may be getting a little ahead of ourselves in saying this. I
     mean yes, in practical terms, when you consider the amount of former and
     current military men involved in drug trafficking (plus the rumors of
     Torres's involvement in this), the military does have the effect of
     securing the routes for these people. However, I don't think this is the
     primary reason, nor should we even consider it that. Remember that, when
     the Zetas kill 27 people in Peten, the Guatemalan gov't faces some real
     pressures from abroad (read: the US) and domestically (from the general
     public and businesses that are freaked out over these killings). In
     practice, yes, the army acts as the biggest cartel, just as in Mexico.
     But they're also a tool to be used by the gov't in an actual CT role
     (albeit somewhat ineffectively). It's more multi-faceted than just
     saying that they'll roll in simply seize the routes. .Yes, I wrote this
     in context to my theories above.  I defintely believe the military will
     have a CT role to play, but the biggest fear is the military becoming
     involved, because no matter their intentions, they would not be able to
     resist the DTO's and the money.  Just as Stick has argued that the
     longer the Mexican Army is involved in the fight against DTO's, the more
     chance their is of their corruption.  The expansion of the military's
     role in Guatemala is something the people are stuggling with.  Yes they
     need protection, but do they trust the military to provide it?    What I
     am hearing from sources is that by drawing the military into any
     conflict is a worst case scenario, and one the Guatemalans themselves
     are terrified of.  It is also precisely what just happened.

     On 5/19/11 7:59 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

       also 'grisly', 'horrific', etc.

       the elite landowners don't 'represent' the state.... in fact, Sandra
       has a real problem on her hands with the landed elite the more she
       tries to go down the populist/indigenous vote grabbing route.  The
       landed elite are a powerful part of the state, but represent is not
       the right word

       i also don't see the basis for this claim "We expect this to be the
       beginning of a trend which will have dramatic effect upon the
       geopolitics of the country and the greater Central American region. "

       what is this supposed dramatic effect on the geopolitics of Guatemala
       and CA?  The Zetas have been there for a long time, likely with the
       cooperation of Sandra Torres and her allies. The Zetas also use
       messages like this to intimidate all the time. This analysis treats
       the event as if something radically new is happening.  The mass
       killing is notable for sure, but I really do not see this at all
       having a fundamental impact on Central American geopolitics

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
       To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
       Cc: "Writers@Stratfor. Com" &lt;writers@stratfor.com&gt;, "scott stewart"
       &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
       Sent: Thursday, May 19, 2011 7:55:48 AM
       Subject: Re: FOR EDIT - GUATEMALA MASSACRE TACTICAL ANALYSIS - 110519

       Please take these loaded words out of the analysis as I suggested
       yesterday:
       massacre (it's a mass murder)
       sadistic (this is now a 'personality disorder' and we are not
       shrinks.  Please describe in dry, tactical terms)
       slaughter (we simply don't use words like this)
       On 5/18/11 6:42 PM, Victoria Allen wrote:

         On the night of 14/15 May, 27-29 Guatemalan laborers were
         slaughtered on the farm of a regional landowner near the village of
         San Benito, Peten Department, Guatemala's northernmost province. The
         mass killing appears to be the work of Mexico's Los Zetas cartel,
         due to the combination of the cartel's known presence in the region,
         its control of Chiapas and Campeche states [LINK:
         http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20101218-mexican-drug-wars-bloodiest-year-date]
         bordering Peten on the north and west, and the grisly display of
         beheaded and dismembered victims. Somewhat out of character, though,
         was that they wrote the narco-message on a wall of a building with
         blood - using a victim's leg as the writing implement - which is not
         common for Los Zetas. However it has become clear over the last two
         years that Los Zetas tend to kill victims in particularly sadistic
         ways when time allows and a message needs to be sent - the result
         being a fearsome reputation. That this event occurred and involved
         Los Zetas, is not what makes the massacre significant. When taken
         together, several unusual aspects of this event present the
         probability that a significant shift is in progress in the dynamics
         of Zeta activities in northern Guatemala.

          

         Peten Department is remote, underdeveloped, and the people are
         strongly independent and distrustful of the Guatemalan government
         (this will be rewritten/reworked by Colby to convey more accurately
         in a single sentence the significance of the culture of the region
         vis-`a-vis outsiders, govt, kaibiles, etc...). It is known that Los
         Zetas over the years have recruited many Guatemalan kaibiles [LINK:
         http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110209-mexican-cartels-and-guatemalan-politics],
         current or former Guatemalan special forces soldiers, to the point
         that there is a high likelihood that Zetas operating in Guatemala,
         the Yucatan, and southern Mexico are from Guatemala. Based upon
         reported testimony of two of the survivors of the massacre the
         attackers wore military-style fatigues (not uncommon), and that they
         had Mexican accents. The presence of a large group of Mexican Zeta
         enforcers leads to the possibility that this group was sent into
         Peten Department for a specific purpose. In the context of a long
         presence of Guatemalan Zetas in the region, we ask why this change
         in operations came about.

          

         Further, the surviving witnesses indicated that the gunmen were
         demanding to know the whereabouts of the landowner, Otto Salguero,
         and as the peasants had just arrived to work for Salguero the
         previous week they would not have possessed any useful knowledge to
         extract - as opposed to that which long-time employees likely would
         possess. While interrogating the peasants regarding the whereabouts
         of Salguero - who was not on the property at the time - the peasants
         were killed, then methodically decapitated. But there are large
         anomalies evident in the event.

          

         According to reports from Latin American media, the Zeta force was
         camped in a what was described as a redoubt nearby for several days
         - most likely in surveillance of Salguero's residence and
         activities, judging by the proximity of their camp to the target's
         house - and as such probably knew that their apparent target was not
         on the property when they attacked. Additionally it was reported
         that, at the time the attack began, Salguero was attending the
         funeral of his niece and her father-in-law - who had been killed the
         previous day by Zetas when the pair were delivering ransom money for
         another family member. The Zetas killed and beheaded the people they
         were interrogating, presumably because the peasants could offer no
         information, but the Zetas likely knew where their target was - and
         why. The conflicting information then points to the potential that
         Los Zetas slaughtered the peasants knowing they were not relevant to
         whatever activities Salguero was engaged in that made him a Zeta
         target in the first place. There are indications in the media that
         Salguero's activities have been counter to Zeta interests for
         several years, however as there is little clarity yet in this aspect
         of the chain of events, STRATFOR is in the process of corroborating
         rumored connections before giving them credence in analysis on this
         situation.

          

         Regarding the contradiction of reported information and historical
         evidence, another element in play is the leaving of witnesses: Los
         Zetas typically does not do so unless the group wishes to deliver a
         pointed message, though there have been occasions when a victim has
         "played dead" until the Zetas depart, as occurred at the massacre of
         the Central American migrants in San Fernando last year [LINK:
         http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100826_revelations_72_migrants_deaths].
         As reported in Guatemalan news on the event, while one survivor did
         so by "playing dead" after he was wounded, a woman was specifically
         and pointedly spared. She apparently was told by the Zeta leader
         that she would be spared because of her daughters, who were with her
         and reportedly whom she had attempted to protect by covering them
         with her body. As it happens the woman is pregnant as well, but that
         may not have played into the decision to allow her to live. What is
         not known at this point about the Zetas sparing her and her
         children, is what message she may have been specifically instructed
         to convey after the event came to light.

          

         There remains a great deal of uncertain or uncorroborated
         information surrounding the massacre in Peten. STRATFOR is
         monitoring the developments closely, for there are many questions to
         be answered. It is clear though, from the known facts and the
         identified anomalies, that a profound message was being sent. Based
         upon the available information STRATFOR's initial take is that the
         message was the violence, that because Mexicans were used rather
         than Guatemalans, Los Zetas are there, no one is safe - from the
         average peasant to the elite landowners (who represent the state).
         The more gruesome the scene created by Los Zetas, the more it will
         remind the Guatemalan people of the horrific acts of the death
         squads during that country's 36 year civil war - and the death
         squads were kaibiles, who now are aligned with Los Zetas. The
         connection will have been made. The primal fear this event instilled
         in Guatemalans has been evidenced by STRATFOR's sources in that
         country flatly refusing to discuss or even acknowledge it as having
         happened. We expect this to be the beginning of a trend which will
         have dramatic effect upon the geopolitics of the country and the
         greater Central American region. The second part of this discussion,
         next week, will examine those wider implications which we perceive
         to have been triggered by the massacre at San Benito.

          

          

          

          

         Victoria Allen
         Tactical Analyst (Mexico)
         Strategic Forecasting
         512-279-9475
         victoria.allen@stratfor.com
         "There is nothing more necessary than good intelligence to frustrate
         a designing enemy, &amp; nothing requires greater pains to
         obtain." -- George Washington

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-05-19 16:40:03</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/363668_re-for-edit-guatemala-massacre-tactical-analysis-110519-.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>363803</id>
    <title>Security Weekly : The Bin Laden Operation: Tapping Human Intelligence
</title>
    <description>    Stratfor logo                                                             
   The Bin Laden Operation: Tapping Human Intelligence                        
                                                                              
    May 26, 2011                                                              
                                                                              
    Readers Comment on STRATFOR Reports                                       
                                                                              
    By Fred Burton                                                            
                                                                              
    Since May 2, when U.S. special operations forces crossed the              
    Afghan-Pakistani border and killed Osama bin Laden, international media   
    have covered the raid from virtually every angle. The United States and   
    Pakistan have also squared off over the U.S. violation of Pakistan's      
    sovereign territory and [IMG] Pakistan's possible complicity in hiding    
    the al Qaeda leader. All this surface-level discussion, however, largely  
    ignores almost 10 years of intelligence development in the hunt for bin   
    Laden.                                                                    
                                                                              
    While the cross-border nighttime raid deep into Pakistan was a daring     
    and daunting operation, the work to find the target - one person out of   
    180 million in a country full of insurgent groups and a population        
    hostile to American activities on its soil - was a far greater            
    challenge. For the other side, the challenge of hiding the world's most   
    wanted man from the world's most funded intelligence apparatus created a  
    clandestine shell game that probably involved current or former           
    Pakistani intelligence officers as well as competing intelligence         
    services. The details of this struggle will likely remain classified for  
    decades.                                                                  
                                                                              
    Examining the hunt for bin Laden is also difficult, mainly because of     
    the sensitivity of the mission and the possibility that some of the       
    public information now available could be disinformation intended to      
    disguise intelligence sources and methods. Successful operations can      
    often compromise human sources and new intelligence technologies that     
    have taken years to develop. Because of this, it is not uncommon for      
    intelligence services to try to create a wilderness of mirrors to         
    protect sources and methods. But using open-source reporting and human    
    intelligence from STRATFOR's own sources, we can assemble enough          
    information to draw some conclusions about this complex intelligence      
    effort and raise some key questions.                                      
                                                                              
     The Challenge                                                            
                                                                              
    Following the 9/11 attacks, finding and killing bin Laden became the      
    primary mission of the U.S. intelligence community, particularly the      
    CIA. This mission was clearly laid out in a presidential "finding," or    
    directive, signed on Sept. 17, 2001, by then-U.S. President George W.     
    Bush. By 2005 it became clear to STRATFOR that bin Laden was deep inside  
    Pakistan. Although the Pakistani government was ostensibly a U.S. ally,   
    it was known that there were elements within it sympathetic to al Qaeda   
    and bin Laden. In order to find bin Laden, U.S. intelligence would have   
    to work with - and against - Pakistani intelligence services.             
                                                                              
    Finding bin Laden in a hostile intelligence environment while friends     
    and sympathizers were protecting him represented a monumental             
    intelligence challenge for the United States. With bin Laden and his      
    confederates extremely conscious of U.S technical intelligence            
    abilities, the search quickly became a human-intelligence challenge.      
    While STRATFOR believes bin Laden had become tactically irrelevant since  
    9/11, he remained symbolically important and a focal point for the U.S.   
    intelligence effort. And while it appears that the United States has      
    improved its intelligence capabilities and passed an important test,      
    much remains undone. Today, the public information surrounding the case   
    illuminates the capabilities that will be used to find other high-value   
    targets as the U.S. effort continues.                                     
                                                                              
    The official story on the intelligence that led to bin Laden's            
    Abbottabad compound has been widely reported, leaked from current and     
    former U.S. officials. It focuses on a man with the cover name Abu Ahmed  
    al-Kuwaiti, a Pakistani Pashtun born in Kuwait who became bin Laden's     
    most trusted courier. With fluency in Pashto and Arabic, according to     
    media reports, al-Kuwaiti would be invaluable to al Qaeda, and in order   
    to purchase bin Laden's property and run errands he would also need to    
    be fluent in Urdu. His position as bin Laden's most trusted courier made  
    him a key link in disrupting the organization. While this man supposedly  
    led the United States to bin Laden, it took a decade of revamping U.S.    
    intelligence capabilities and a great deal of hard work (and maybe even   
    a lucky break) to actually find him.                                      
                                                                              
    The first step for U.S. intelligence services after Bush's directive was  
    focusing their efforts on bin Laden and the al Qaeda leadership.          
    Intelligence collection against al Qaeda was under way before 9/11, but   
    after the attacks it became the No. 1 priority. Due to a lack of human    
    intelligence in the region and allies for an invasion of Afghanistan,     
    the CIA revived connections with anti-Taliban forces in Afghanistan and   
    with Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) directorate in order    
    to oust the Taliban government and accrue intelligence for use in         
    disrupting al Qaeda. The connections were built in the 1980s as the CIA   
    famously operated through the ISI to fund militant groups in Afghanistan  
    fighting the Soviet military. Most of these links were lost when the      
    Soviets withdrew from the Southwest Asian state and the CIA nominally     
    declared victory. Pakistan, left with Afghanistan and these militant      
    groups, developed a working relationship with the Taliban and others for  
    its own interests. A coterie of ISI officers was embedded with different  
    militant groups, and some of them became jihadist sympathizers.           
                                                                              
    U.S. intelligence budgets were severely cut in the 1990s in light of the  
    "peace dividend" following the fall of the Soviet Union, as some U.S.     
    leaders argued there was no one left to fight. Intelligence collection    
    was a dirty, ambiguous and dangerous game that U.S. politicians were not  
    prepared to stomach. John Deutch, the director of the CIA from 1995 to    
    1996, gutted the CIA's sources on what was known as the "Torricelli       
    Principle" (named after then-Rep. Robert Torricelli), which called for    
    the removal of any unsavory characters from the payroll. This meant       
    losing sources in the exact kind of organizations U.S. intelligence       
    would want to infiltrate, including militants in Southwest Asia.          
                                                                              
    The CIA began to revive its contacts in the region after the 1998 U.S.    
    Embassy bombings in Nairobi, Kenya, and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. While    
    the U.S. intelligence community was looking for bin Laden at this time,   
    he was not a high priority, and U.S. human-intelligence capabilities in   
    the region were limited. The United States has always had trouble with    
    human intelligence - having people sitting at computers is less of a      
    security risk than having daring undercover operatives running around in  
    the field - and by the end of the 1990s it was relying on technological   
    platforms for intelligence more than ever.                                
                                                                              
    The United States was in this state on Sept. 12, 2001, when it began to   
    ramp up its intelligence operations, and al Qaeda was aware of this. Bin  
    Laden knew that if he could stay away from electronic communications,     
    and generally out of sight, he would be much harder to track. After       
    invading Afghanistan and working with the ISI in Pakistan, the United     
    States had a large number of detainees who it hoped would have            
    information to breach bin Laden's operational security. From some mix of  
    detainees caught in operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan (particularly  
    with the help of the ISI), including Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and Abu Farj  
    al-Libi, came information leading to an important bin Laden courier       
    known by various names, including Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti. (His actual       
    identity is still unconfirmed, though his real name may be Sheikh Abu     
    Ahmed.)                                                                   
                                                                              
    The efficacy of enhanced interrogation and torture techniques is          
    constantly debated - they may have helped clarify or obfuscate the        
    courier's identity (some reports say Mohammed tried to lead               
    investigators away from him). What is clear is that U.S. intelligence     
    lacked both a sophisticated and nuanced understanding of al Qaeda and,    
    most important, human sources with access to that information. With the   
    United States not knowing what al Qaeda was capable of, the fear of a     
    follow-on attack to 9/11 loomed large.                                    
                                                                              
    Anonymous U.S. intelligence officials told Reuters the breakthrough came  
    when a man named Hassan Ghul was captured in Iraq in 2004 by Kurdish      
    forces and turned over to the United States. Little is known about        
    Ghul's identity except that he is believed to have worked with Abu Musab  
    al-Zarqawi and to have given interrogators information about a man named  
    "al-Kuwaiti" who was a courier between al-Zarqawi and al Qaeda            
    operational commanders in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Ghul was then given   
    over to the Pakistani security services; he is believed to have been      
    released in 2007 and to now be fighting somewhere in the region.          
                                                                              
    While U.S. intelligence services got confirmation of al-Kuwaiti's role    
    from al-Libi, they could not find the courier. It is unknown if they      
    gave any of this information to the Pakistanis or asked for their help.   
    According to leaks from U.S. officials to AP, the Pakistanis provided     
    the National Security Agency (NSA), the main U.S. communications          
    interception agency, with information that allowed it to monitor a SIM    
    card from a cellphone that had frequently called Saudi Arabia. In 2010,   
    the NSA intercepted a call made by al-Kuwaiti and began tracking him in   
    Pakistan. Another U.S. official told CNN that the operational security    
    exercised by al-Kuwaiti and his brother made them difficult to trail,     
    but "an elaborate surveillance effort" was organized to track them to     
    the Abbottabad compound.                                                  
                                                                              
    From then on, the NSA monitored all of the cellphones used by the         
    couriers and their family members, though they were often turned off and  
    had batteries removed when the phones' users went to the Abbottabad       
    compound or to other important meetings. The compound was monitored by    
    satellites and RQ-170 Sentinels, stealth versions of unmanned aerial      
    vehicles (UAVs), which were reportedly flown over the compound.           
    According to The Wall Street Journal, the National                        
    Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) even built a replica of the          
    compound for CIA Director Leon Panetta and other officials. The NGA is    
    the premier U.S. satellite observation agency, which could have watched   
    the goings-on at the compound and even spotted bin Laden, though it       
    would have been difficult to confirm his identity.                        
                                                                              
    Some of these leaks could be disingenuous in order to lead the public     
    and adversary intelligence agencies away from highly classified sources   
    and methods. But they do reflect long-believed assessments of the U.S.    
    intelligence community regarding its advanced capability in               
    technology-based intelligence gathering as well as the challenges it      
    faces in human-intelligence collection.                                   
                                                                              
     The Utility of Liaison Relationships                                     
                                                                              
    Historically, U.S. intelligence officers have been white males, though    
    the CIA has more recently begun hiring more minorities, including those   
    from various ethnic and linguistic groups important to its mission (or    
    at least those who can pass the polygraph and full-field background       
    investigation, a substantial barrier). Even when intelligence officers    
    look the part in the countries in which they operate and have a native    
    understanding of the cultures and languages, they need sources within     
    the organizations they are trying to penetrate. It is these sources,      
    recruited by intelligence officers and without official or secret         
    status, who are the "agents" providing the information needed back at     
    headquarters. The less an intelligence officer appears like a local the   
    more difficult it is to meet with and develop these agents, which has     
    led the United States to frequently depend on liaison services - local    
    intelligence entities - to collect information.                           
                                                                              
    Many intelligence services around the world were established with         
    American support or funding for just this purpose. The most dependent     
    liaison services essentially function as sources, acquiring information   
    at the local CIA station's request. They are often made up of             
    long-serving officers in the local country's military, police or          
    intelligence services, with a nuanced understanding of local issues and   
    the ability to maintain a network of sources. With independent            
    intelligence services, such as Israel's Mossad, there has been roughly    
    an equal exchange of intelligence, where Israeli sources may recruit a    
    human source valuable to the United States and the CIA may have           
    satellite imagery or communications intercepts valuable to the Israelis.  
                                                                              
    Of course, this is not a simple game. It involves sophisticated players   
    trying to collect intelligence while deceiving one another about their    
    intentions and plans - and many times trying to muddy the water a little  
    to hide the identity of their sources from the liaison service. Even the  
    closest intelligence relationships, such as that between the CIA and the  
    British Secret Intelligence Service, have been disrupted by moles like    
    Kim Philby, a longtime Soviet plant who handled the liaison work between  
    the two agencies.                                                         
                                                                              
    Since most U.S. intelligence officers serve on rotations of only one to   
    three years - out of concern they will "go native" or to allow them to    
    return to the comfort of home - it becomes even more challenging to       
    develop long-term human-intelligence sources. While intelligence          
    officers will pass their sources off to their replacements, the liaison   
    service becomes even more valuable in being able to sustain source        
    relationships, which can take years to build. Liaison relationships,      
    then, become a way to efficiently use and extend U.S. intelligence        
    resources, which, unlike such services in most countries, have global     
    requirements. The United States may be the world's superpower, but it is  
    impossible for it to maintain sources everywhere.                         
                                                                              
     Liaison and Unilateral Operations in the Hunt for Bin Laden              
                                                                              
    In recent years, U.S. intelligence has worked with Pakistan's ISI most    
    notably in raids throughout Pakistan against senior al Qaeda operatives   
    like Abu Zubaydah, Ramzi bin al-Shibh, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and Abu     
    Farj al-Libi. We can also presume that much of the information used by    
    the United States for UAV strikes comes through sources in Pakistani      
    intelligence as well as those on the Afghan side of the border. Another   
    example of such cooperation, also to find bin Laden, is the CIA's work    
    with the Jordanian General Intelligence Department, an effort that went   
    awry in the Khost suicide attack. Such is the risk with liaison           
    relationships - to what extent can one intelligence officer trust         
    another's sources and motives? Nevertheless, these liaison networks were  
    the best the United States had available, and huge amounts of resources   
    were put into developing intelligence through them in looking for major   
    jihadists, including bin Laden.                                           
                                                                              
    The United States is particularly concerned about Pakistan's              
    intelligence services and the possibility that some of their officers     
    could be compromised by, or at least sympathetic to, jihadists. Given     
    the relationships with jihadists maintained by former ISI officers such   
    as Khalid Khawaja and Sultan Amir Tarar (known as Colonel Imam), who      
    were both held hostage and killed by Pakistani militants, and most        
    famously former ISI Director Hamid Gul, there is cause for concern.       
    These three are the most famous former ISI officers with links to         
    jihadists, but because they were (or are) long retired from the ISI and   
    their notoriety makes them easy to track to jihadists, they have little   
    influence on either group. But the reality is that there are current ISI  
    and military officers sympathizing or working with important jihadist     
    groups. Indeed, it was liaison work by the CIA and Saudi Arabia that      
    helped develop strong connections with Arab and Afghan militants, some    
    of whom would go on to become members of al Qaeda and the Taliban. The    
    ISI was responsible for distributing U.S.- and Saudi-supplied weapons to  
    various Afghan militant groups to fight the Russians in the 1980s, and    
    it controlled contact with these groups. If some of those contacts        
    remain, jihadists could be using members of the ISI rather than the       
    other way around.                                                         
                                                                              
    Due to concerns like these, according to official statements and leaked   
    information, U.S. intelligence officers never told their Pakistani        
    liaison counterparts about the forthcoming bin Laden raid. It appears     
    the CIA developed a unilateral capability to operate within Pakistan,     
    demonstrated by the Raymond Davis shooting in January as well as the bin  
    Laden raid. Davis was a contractor providing security for U.S.            
    intelligence officers in Pakistan when he killed two reportedly armed     
    men in Lahore, and his case brought the CIA-ISI conflict out in the       
    open. Requests by Pakistani officials to remove more than 300 similar     
    individuals from the country show that there are a large number of U.S.   
    intelligence operatives in Pakistan. Other aspects of this unilateral     
    U.S. effort were the tracking of bin Laden, further confirmation of his   
    identity and the safe house the CIA maintained in Abbottabad for months   
    to monitor the compound.                                                  
                                                                              
     The CIA and the ISI                                                      
                                                                              
    Even with the liaison relationships in Pakistan, which involved meetings  
    between the CIA station chief in Islamabad and senior members of the      
    ISI, the CIA ran unilateral operations on the ground. Liaison services    
    cannot be used to recruit sources within the host government; this must   
    be done unilaterally. This is where direct competition between            
    intelligence services comes into play. In Pakistan, this competition may  
    involve different organizations such as Pakistan's Intelligence Bureau    
    or Federal Investigation Agency, both of which have counterintelligence   
    functions, or separate departments within the ISI, where one department   
    is assigned to liaison while others handle counterintelligence or work    
    with militant groups. Counterintelligence officers may want to disrupt    
    intelligence operations that involve collecting information on the        
    host-country military, or they may simply want to monitor the foreign     
    intelligence service's efforts to recruit jihadists. They can also feed   
    disinformation to the operatives. This competition is known to all        
    players and is not out of the ordinary.                                   
                                                                              
    But the U.S. intelligence community is wondering if this ordinary         
    competition was taken to another level - if the ISI, or elements of it,   
    were actually protecting bin Laden. The people helping bin Laden and      
    other al Qaeda operatives and contacts in Abbottabad were the same        
    people the CIA was competing against. Were they simply jihadists or a     
    more resourceful and capable state intelligence agency? If the ISI as an  
    institution knew about bin Laden's location, it would mean it outwitted   
    the CIA for nearly a decade in hiding his whereabouts. It would also      
    mean that no ISI officers who knew his location were turned by U.S.       
    intelligence, that no communications were intercepted and that no leaks   
    reached the media.                                                        
                                                                              
    On the other hand, if someone within the ISI was protecting bin Laden     
    and keeping it from the rest of the organization, it would mean the ISI   
    was beaten internally and the CIA eventually caught up by developing its  
    own sources and was able to find bin Laden on its own. As we point out    
    above, the official story on the bin Laden intelligence effort may be     
    disinformation to protect sources and methods. Still, this seems to be a  
    more plausible scenario. American and Pakistani sources have told         
    STRATFOR that there are likely jihadist sympathizers within the ISI who   
    helped bin Laden or his supporters. Given that Pakistan is fighting its   
    own war with al Qaeda-allied groups like Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, the   
    country's leadership in Islamabad has no interest in protecting them.     
    Furthermore, finding an individual anywhere, especially in a foreign      
    country with multiple insurgencies under way, is an extremely difficult   
    intelligence challenge.                                                   
                                                                              
    Assuming the official story is mostly true, the bin Laden raid            
    demonstrates that U.S. intelligence has come full circle since the end    
    of the Cold War. It was able to successfully collect and analyze          
    intelligence of all types and develop and deploy on-the-ground            
    capabilities it had been lacking to find an individual who was hiding     
    and probably protected. It was able to quickly work with special          
    operations forces under CIA command to carry out an elaborate operation   
    to capture or kill him, a capability honed by the U.S. Joint Special      
    Operations Command (JSOC) in the development of its own capture-and-kill  
    capabilities in Iraq and Afghanistan. The CIA is responsible for          
    missions in Pakistan, where, like the JSOC, it has demonstrated an        
    efficient and devastating capability to task UAV strikes and conduct      
    cross-border raids. The bin Laden raid was the public proof of concept    
    that the United States could collect intelligence and reach far into      
    hostile territory to capture or kill its targets.                         
                                                                              
    It is unclear exactly how the U.S. intelligence community has been able   
    to develop these capabilities, beyond the huge post-9/11 influx of money  
    and personnel (simply throwing resources at a problem is never a          
    complete solution). The United States faced Sept. 11, 2001, without       
    strategic warning of the attacks inspired by bin Laden, and then it       
    faced a tactical threat it was unprepared to fight. Whatever the new and  
    improved human-intelligence capabilities may be, they are no doubt some   
    function of the experience gained by operatives in a concerted, global    
    campaign against jihadists. Human intelligence is probably still the      
    biggest U.S. weakness, but given the evidence of unilateral operations    
    in Pakistan, it is not the weakness it used to be.                        
                                                                              
     The Intelligence Battle Between the U.S. and Pakistan                    
                                                                              
    The [IMG] competition and cooperation among various intelligence          
    agencies did not end with the death of Osama bin Laden. Publicity         
    surrounding the operation has led to calls in Pakistan to eject any and   
    all American interests in the country. In the past few years, Pakistan    
    has made it difficult for many Americans to get visas, especially those   
    with official status that may be cover for intelligence operations.       
    Raymond Davis was one of these people. Involved in protecting             
    intelligence officers who were conducting human-intelligence missions,    
    he would have been tasked not only with protecting them from physical     
    threats from jihadists but also with helping ensure they were not under   
    the surveillance of a hostile intelligence agency.                        
                                                                              
    Pakistan has only ratcheted up these barriers since the bin Laden raid.   
    The Interior Ministry announced May 19 that it would ban travel by        
    foreign diplomats to cities other than those where they are stationed     
    without permission from Pakistani authorities. The News, a Pakistani      
    daily, reported May 20 that Interior Minister Rehman Malik chaired a      
    meeting with provincial authorities on regulating travel by foreigners,   
    approving their entry into the country and monitoring unregistered        
    mobile phones. While some of these efforts are intended to deal with      
    jihadists disguised within large groups of Afghan nationals, they also    
    place barriers on foreign intelligence officers in the country. While     
    non-official cover is becoming more common for CIA officers overseas,     
    many are still traveling on various diplomatic documents and thus would   
    require these approvals. The presence of intelligence officers on the     
    ground for the bin Laden raid shows there are workarounds for such        
    barriers that will be used when the mission is important enough. In       
    fact, according to STRATFOR sources, the CIA has for years been           
    operating in Pakistan under what are known as *Moscow rules* - the        
    strictest tradecraft for operating behind enemy lines - with clandestine  
    units developing human sources and searching for al Qaeda and other       
    militant leaders.                                                         
                                                                              
    And this dynamic will only continue. Pakistani Foreign Secretary Salman   
    Bashir told The Wall Street Journal on May 6 that another operation like  
    the bin Laden raid would have "terrible consequences," while U.S.         
    President Barack Obama told BBC on May 22 that he would authorize         
    similar strikes in the future if they were called for. Pakistan, as any   
    sovereign country would, is trying to protect its territory, while the    
    United States will continue to search for high-value targets who are      
    hiding there. The bin Laden operation only brought this clandestine       
    competition to the public eye.                                            
                                                                              
    Bin Laden is dead, but many other individuals on the U.S. high-value      
    target list remain at large. With the bold execution and ultimate         
    success of the Abbottabad raid now public, the overarching American       
    operational concept for hunting high-value targets has been demonstrated  
    and the immense resources that were focused on bin Laden are now freed    
    up. While the United States still faces intelligence challenges, those    
    most wanted by the Americans can no longer take comfort in the fact that  
    bin Laden is eluding his hunters or that the Americans are expending any  
    more of their effort looking for him.                                     
                                                                              
    Give us your thoughts                          Read comments on           
    on this report                                 other reports              
                                                                              
    For Publication                                Reader Comments            
                                                                              
    Not For Publication                                                       
                                                                              
    Reprinting or republication of this report on websites is authorized by   
    prominently displaying the following sentence at the beginning or end of  
    the report, including the hyperlink to STRATFOR:                          
                                                                              
    "This report is republished with permission of STRATFOR"                  
    Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                                
    (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
</description>
    <date>2011-05-26 11:01:12</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/363803_security-weekly-the-bin-laden-operation-tapping-human.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>allstratfor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>noreply@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:stratforaustin@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>364614</id>
    <title>Re: Notes on hacker infiltration on March 24th
</title>
    <description>   Romania

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Michael D. Mooney" &lt;mooney@stratfor.com&gt;, "Greg Sikes"
   &lt;greg.sikes@stratfor.com&gt;, "Fred Burton" &lt;fred.burton@stratfor.com&gt;,
   "George Friedman" &lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "IT Team" &lt;itteam@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, April 2, 2008 3:49:04 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: Notes on hacker infiltration on March 24th

   Mike, Good work.  Country of origin, if known?  Thanks

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael D. Mooney [mailto:mooney@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, April 02, 2008 3:25 PM
   To: Greg Sikes; Fred Burton; George Friedman
   Cc: IT Team
   Subject: Notes on hacker infiltration on March 24th
   Hacker originated from  89-40-122-70.netlog.ro (  89.40.122.70 )

   He used what appears to be an exploit of the OpenSSH server to gain
   access, this is difficult to prove.

   He then proceeded to install a log cleaner that he used to clean up
   evidence of his presence from standard log files, this was all canned
   software, non-standard logfiles that showed his presence he did not notice
   nor attempt to clean.

   He then replaced the openssh application binaries with compromised
   versions and finally installed and ran a bulk spam mailer that targeted a
   variety of Italian email addresses.

   I've included a source copy of the mail message he sent via the mailer:
   --- Below this line is a copy of the message.

 Return-Path: &lt;root@queue.stratfor.com&gt;

 Received: (qmail 21382 invoked by uid 1010); 25 Mar 2008 01:21:44 +0100

 Received: from 66.219.34.36 by mta.frezza.net (envelope-from &lt;root@queue.stratfor.com&gt;, uid 1003) with qmail-scanner-2.01st

  (perlscan: 2.01st.  

  Clear:RC:0(66.219.34.36):.

  Processed in 0.094448 secs); 25 Mar 2008 00:21:44 -0000

 Received: from queue.stratfor.com (66.219.34.36)

   by webmail.frezza.net with SMTP; 25 Mar 2008 01:21:43 +0100

 Received: by queue.stratfor.com (Postfix, from userid 0)

         id 46E5A4C281B7; Mon, 24 Mar 2008 19:10:19 -0500 (CDT)

 To: cerca@titoli.it

 Subject: Avviso di Sicurezza

 From: mail@QuiUBI.it

 Content-Type: text/html

 Message-Id: &lt;20080325001019.46E5A4C281B7@queue.stratfor.com&gt;

 Date: Mon, 24 Mar 2008 19:10:19 -0500 (CDT)

 X-Qmail-Scanner-2.01st: added fake MIME-Version header

 MIME-Version: 1.0

 &lt;html&gt;

 &lt;div align="center"&gt;

 &lt;table width="459" border="0" align="left" cellpadding="5"&gt;

 &lt;tr&gt;

 &lt;td  width=445 align="left"&gt;&lt;img src="https://hb.quiubi.it/interactions/layouts/lock.jpg" alt="log"&gt;&lt;/td&gt;

 &lt;/tr&gt;

 &lt;tr&gt;

   &lt;td align="left"&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;font face=Times New Roman,
 Times, serif size=3&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Gentile
 Cliente,&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/font&gt;&lt;font face="Times New Roman,
 Times, serif"&gt;&lt;br&gt;

     &lt;/font&gt;

     &lt;p&gt;&lt;font face="Times New Roman, Times,
 serif"&gt;Nell'ambito delle misure di sicurezza da noi adottate,
 controlliamo

       costantemente le attivit&amp;agrave; del sistema. Durante una recente verifica,

       abbiamo rilevato un problema riguardante il tuo conto.&lt;br&gt;

       Abbiamo deciso di limitare l'accesso al tuo conto fino a quando non verr&amp;agrave;

       completata l'implementazione di misure di sicurezza aggiuntive.&lt;br&gt;

     &lt;/font&gt;

     &lt;p&gt;&lt;font face="Times New Roman, Times, serif"&gt;Per
 controllare il tuo conto e le informazioni che UBI Banca ha utilizzato
 per

       decretare di limitare l'accesso al conto, visita il seguente sito:&lt;br&gt;

       &lt;br&gt;

       &lt;a href="http://www.quiubi.it.sharpcms.com/login.html"&gt;https://www.quiubi.it/hb/login.php&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br&gt;

     &lt;/font&gt;

     &lt;p&gt;&lt;font face="Times New Roman, Times, serif"&gt;Se,
 dopo aver controllato le informazioni sul conto, desideri ulteriori
 chiarimenti riguardo all'accesso al conto, contatta

       il modulo Contattaci nell'Aiuto.&lt;br&gt;

     &lt;br&gt;

     &lt;/font&gt;

     &lt;font face="Times New Roman, Times, serif"&gt;Ci scusiamo per gli eventuali disagi.&lt;br&gt;

     &lt;/font&gt;

     &lt;p&gt;&lt;font face="Times New Roman, Times, serif"&gt;Cordiali saluti,&lt;br&gt;

     &amp;copy; Gruppo UBI Banca 2008&lt;/font&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/td&gt;

 &lt;/tr&gt;

 &lt;/table&gt;

 &lt;p&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

 &lt;br&gt;

 &lt;/html&gt;

 &lt;/div&gt;

   ---------------------

   Further info the IP address he originated from:
   % Information related to '89.40.112.0 - 89.40.127.255'

   inetnum:        89.40.112.0 - 89.40.127.255
   netname:        SC-NETLOG-COMPUTER-SRL
   descr:          SC NETLOG COMPUTER SRL
   descr:          CONSTRUCTORUL Bl.10, Sc.2, Ap.12
   descr:          PETROSANI HUNEDOARA
   country:        ro
   admin-c:        IC1385-RIPE
   tech-c:         IC1385-RIPE
   status:         ASSIGNED PA
   remarks:        Registered trough http://www.jump.ro/ip.html
   mnt-by:         RO-MNT
   mnt-lower:      RO-MNT
   mnt-routes:     NETLOG-MNT
   source:         RIPE # Filtered

   person:         Istvan Csont
   address:        SC NETLOG COMPUTER SRL
   address:        STR. CONSTRUCTORUL BL.10, AP. 12
   address:        Hunedoara Petrosani RO
   address:        Postal Code: 1234
   address:        Registration/ID Number: J40/240/20.02.2004
   address:        Fiscal Code: 16162700
   phone:          +40-720-721700
   fax-no:         +40-354-401240
   e-mail:         istvan@netlog.ro
   nic-hdl:        IC1385-RIPE
   mnt-by:         NETLOG-MNT
   source:         RIPE # Filtered

   % Information related to '89.40.112.0/20AS41950'

   route:          89.40.112.0/20
   descr:          SC NETLOG COMPUTER SRL
   origin:         AS41950
   mnt-by:         NETLOG-MNT
   source:         RIPE # Filtered

   --
   ----
   Michael Mooney
   mooney@stratfor.com
   AIM: mikemooney6023
   mb: 512.560.6577

   --
   ----
   Michael Mooney
   mooney@stratfor.com
   AIM: mikemooney6023
   mb: 512.560.6577
</description>
    <date>2008-04-02 22:57:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-06 02:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/364614_re-notes-on-hacker-infiltration-on-march-24th-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mooney@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>greg.sikes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>fred.burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>itteam@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>364732</id>
    <title>Re: Wikileaks
</title>
    <description>Stand down, got the lads on culling the materials.

------Original Message------
From: Mike Parks
To: 'Fred Burton'
Subject: RE: Wikileaks
Sent: Jul 26, 2010 1:50 PM

Maybe - but it would take me a long time(I emphasize "me" - more technically
savvy people might do better. There are over 90K pieces in the cache.

-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
Sent: Monday, July 26, 2010 11:24 AM
To: Mike Parks
Subject: Re: Wikileaks

can you cull 'em out?

Mike Parks wrote:
&gt; Bunch of DSS surveillance reports (Ambo's detail) in the wikileaks cache.
</description>
    <date>2010-07-26 20:52:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/364732_re-wikileaks-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>longbow99@earthlink.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>364817</id>
    <title>Fw: [CT] FW: Guidance on the leaks
</title>
    <description>     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2010 18:52:03 +0000
   To: Colby Martin&lt;colby.martin@stratfor.com&gt;; CT AOR&lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;;
   George Friedman&lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: burton@stratfor.com
   Subject: Re: [CT] FW: Guidance on the leaks
   We probably asked the ASIS to monitor Wiki coms and email, after the
   soldier from Potomac was nabbed. So, its reasonable to assume we probably
   already know who has done it.

   The delay could be figuring out how to declassify and use the Aussie intel
   on Wiki.

   Wiki holding on to other docs is to protect their sources.

   The owner is a peacenik. He needs his head dunked in a full toilet bowl at
   Gitmo.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Colby Martin &lt;colby.martin@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2010 13:47:38 -0500 (CDT)
   To: &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;; CT AOR&lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [CT] FW: Guidance on the leaks

 Sorry if this has been seen but it is a good article and goes with what we are
                                    saying.

                       WikiLeaks' Afghan Documents and Me

  http://motherjones.com/mojo/2010/07/wikileaks-afghan-documents-and-me-source

   a** By Adam Weinstein

   | Sun Jul. 25, 2010 10:28 PM PDT

   a** Flickr/ Jabber1990 (Creative Commons)

   [For more on the WikiLeaks Afghan document dump, read posts by Kevin Drum
   here and senior editor Dave Gilson here.]

   Here's a cliche for you: A little knowledge is a dangerous thing. And
   here's a fact: A little knowledge is precisely what Julian Assange and his
   WikiLeaks cohorts have given us in the "Afghan War Diary." The intimation
   by Assange (and the media outlets he cherry-picked to preview the data) is
   that these are the Pentagon Papers of the Afghan war. Certainly there are
   a few eyebrow-raising details in the bunch, as Mark Mazzetti, Chris
   Chivers &amp; Co. at the New York Times point out. But in truth, there's not
   much there. I know, because I've seen many of these reports beforea**at
   least, thousands of similar ones from Iraq, when I was a contractor there
   last year.

   I haven't been through everything yet, but most of what you see on
   WikiLeaks are military SIGACTS (significant activity reports). These are
   theoretically accessible by anyone in Iraq, Afghanistan, or the Tampa,
   Florida-based US Central Commanda**soldiers and contractorsa**who have
   access to the military's most basic intranet for sensitive data, the
   Secret Internet Protocol Router Network (SIPRNet). Literally thousands of
   people in hundreds of locations could read them, and any one of them could
   be the source for WikiLeaks' data. I regularly went through the daily
   SIGACT reports in Iraq, not because my job required it, but because my
   colleagues and I were curious. We heard mortars or car bombs explode in
   the distance at night, and we couldn't help but wonder: What the hell was
   that? Every time a US unit engaged the enemy, encountered munitions, saw
   or heard something go boom, caught a criminal, or located a weapons cache,
   a report was filed. So, each morning when I entered my office on Camp
   Victory, I fired up my SIPR terminal and checked the SIGACTS for
   interesting stuff. 

   The first time I did it, my pupils dilated. A vein in my throat warmed.
   The reporter in me did backflips. I was about to breathe pure oxygen.

   By day three or four, I was bored to tears. Here's what I learned:

   Some SIGACTS are more detailed than others; most are mundane. Only a few
   in WikiLeaks' bunch fall in the former category. For example, an October
   2009 missive provides harrowing details of a battle in which Combat
   Outpost Keating was overrun by Taliban fighters; Chivers at the NYT did an
   amazing job of reconstructing that terrible massacre, in which eight US
   soldiers died and 23 were wounded. But most SIGACTS are much more
   routine-sounding; for instance, the Battle of Wanat on July 13, 2008, was
   actually the deadliest battle of the war for US forces so far, and a
   source of major controversy. Yet its secret report sounds dull by
   comparison.

   Probably the most significant thing about the SIGACTS is that they're
   counted and graphed by the military as a metric of how we're doing, and
   the obvious thing about the Afghan War Diary is that there are tons more
   entries for recent months in 2008 and 2009 than there were in previous
   months through the war. That's also a function of numbers of US and
   coalition forces; just as crime goes up when you put more cops on the
   street, SIGACTS probably should go up when you put more boots on the
   ground. And bear in mind, it's not an apples-to-apples comparison; more
   SIGACTS may mean more good things, like arrests and caches found, rather
   than civilian and coalition casualties. Even so, the most recent numbers
   are pretty sobering.

   There are two categories of data in the WikiLeaks files that could be
   really interestinga**and could cause some serious repercussions. One is
   the military's FRAGOs, fragmentary orders. These are strategic directives
   from headquarter to junior military commands in the field, and they cover
   pretty much everythinga**from orders on how to deal with detainees to an
   on-base visit by the wrestling stars of WWE. WikiLeaks provides a log of
   these FRAGOs, but doesn't have the orders themselves. It's a great
   bibliographic resource for reporters with time on their hands to file a
   FOIA request for the actual orders. But in the meantime, it's not much by
   itself.

   The other interesting data are notes from what the military calls
   KLEsa**key leader engagements. Military officers, as well as officials
   from State, USAID, and other agencies regularly meet with important
   players in a war zone to get their take on the situation. Often they're
   dull and tell the interviewers little they didn't already know; sometimes,
   though, they give insight to "atmospherics"a**how Afghan locals feel about
   US forces or the Taliban. Many of these key leaders take their lives into
   their hands; from my experience in Iraq, I know that numerous Shiites,
   Sunnis and Kurds with high standing among their tribesa**and among our
   enemiesa**took time to brief US officials, often to dish dirt on crooked
   or violent elements in their vicinity. If they were ever outed as
   collaborators with American forces, they'd be as good as dead. And
   Wikileaks has 16 pages of secret military KLEs with individuals and groups
   in Afghanistan, spanning six years. No names are redacted. In this case,
   what retired general James Jones, the White House national security
   adviser, said yesterday is correct: WL is putting some lives at serious
   risk with that particular data dump.

   I'll keep running through to see if there's anything else of importance.
   But most of this information is tactical nuts and bolts, devoid of
   context, and largely useless for a war narrative; what would be far more
   valuable than this stuff is the strategic/political data: military info
   that's TOP SECRET or above, which I haven't seen yet; or stuff from the
   State Department or provincial reconstruction teams (PRTs). (One
   interesting item: A November 2006 report on the WL site suggests that at
   least one PRTa**a team of anthropologists, political and developmental
   specialists, and soldiers sent out to assist local Afghans in rebuilding
   their nationa**engaged in propaganda, feeding broadcast information to
   local radio stations. It's not exactly damning, but it doesn't quite jibe
   with the PRTs' benevolent mission statement, either.)

   By and large, like most of the stunts pulled by Assange, this one's long
   on heat and short on light, nothing you didn't already know if you were
   paying attention to our wars. (And to the extent that you weren't, well, I
   guess the leak is on the whole a good thing.) For the best color
   commentary on this document dump, check out the very succinct analysis of
   Abu Muqawama at the Center for a New American Security. He pretty much
   says it all.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "CT AOR" &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, July 26, 2010 1:23:16 PM
   Subject: Re: [CT] FW: Guidance on the leaks

   Stick and I could find the suspect in 3 days.

   -----Original Message-----
   From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: ct-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2010 12:47:07
   To: CT AOR&lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [CT] FW: Guidance on the leaks

   The first is an excerpt from an intelligence summary probably sent to
   thousands; the second appears to be a DIA report, but could also be a
   retransmitted CIA document possibly through DIA reports, based on the
   the way the names are bracketed w/the ((.  The brackets around the names
   goes back to the old days, when this denoted that the names should be
   cataloged on index cards by the ladies back home.

   Matthew Powers wrote
   &gt; Attached are the only two reports that I have been able to find so far
   &gt; that deal with Gul.  These are both classified secret.  I am still
   &gt; trying to figure out who would have produced them, but wanted to post
   &gt; them in case someone here would know.
   &gt;
   &gt; MAGNETIC IED THREAT IN KABUL
   &gt; Organization(s) Involved: OPPOSING MILITANT FORCES
   &gt; 31 DEC 2006, CJTF-76 INTSUM, NIS
   &gt; 20061231-RC-C G2 -N/I S
   &gt; IED THREAT WARN - RC-C, KABUL, SIED &amp; RCIED (MAGNETIC MINES), 30 DEC - 1
   &gt; JAN  07
   &gt; Importance: High
   &gt; Classification: NATO/ISAF SECRET
   &gt; FYI.  Extract from:
   &gt; CJTF-76 Air Component Coordination Element (ACCE)
   &gt; CJTF-76 Air Support Operations Center (ASOC)
   &gt; Bagram Airfield, Afghanistan
   &gt; INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY
   &gt; 30 Dec 06
   &gt; (290300Z Dec 06 - 300259Z Dec 06)
   &gt; Country-Wide Threats:
   &gt; (N/I R) On approximately 17 December 2006, following a meeting between
   &gt; senior members of the TALIBAN leadership in NOWSHAHRA, Pakistan
   &gt; (GEOCOORD NOT AVAILABLE), which included General Hamid GUL, the former
   &gt; Chief of Inter-Services Intelligence  (ISI) Directorate of Pakistan.
   &gt; During this meeting GUL claimed he dispatched three unidentified
   &gt; individuals to KABUL City (GEOCOORD: 42S WD 15172 19937) to carry out
   &gt; IED attacks during the Eid celebration.  GUL instructed two of the
   &gt; individuals to plant IEDs along the roads frequently utilized by
   &gt; Government of Afghanistan (GOA) and ISAF vehicles.  The third individual
   &gt; is to carry out a suicide attack utilizing a suicide vest against GOA or
   &gt; ISAF entities.  Reportedly GULs final comment to the three
   &gt; individuals was make the snow warm in KABUL, basically telling them to
   &gt; set KABUL aflame.
   &gt; (N/I R) The three individuals traveled from SOROBI (GEOCOORD: 42S WD
   &gt; 6817430407), SOROBI District KABUL Province to their current location in
   &gt; the MUSAYI District, KABUL Province, (GEOCOORD NOT AVAILABLE) NFI.  The
   &gt; two individuals tasked with planting the IEDs will employ two types of
   &gt; IEDs, these being remotely detonated IEDs and a supposedly new Chinese
   &gt; made magnetic mine.  The three individuals tasked with conducting these
   &gt; attacks will be assisted in entering KABUL City by a group of five
   &gt; unidentified individuals, described as a KABUL Province criminal gang
   &gt; that is associated with General AMANULLAH GOUZAR, the current KABUL City
   &gt; Chief of Police.
   &gt; (N/I R) The Chinese made magnetic mines were described as a metal plate
   &gt; with a magnet attached to one side and the explosives to the other.  The
   &gt; mines are to be planted on roads frequently used by ISAF and GOA forces
   &gt; throughout KABUL, utilizing the snow as camouflage.  Reportedly, once a
   &gt; vehicle drives over the camouflaged plated mine the magnetic side will
   &gt; attach itself to the passing vehicle.  As the vehicle departs the area
   &gt; one of the unidentified individuals acting as a spotter will contact the
   &gt; second individual, who will be located on higher ground overlooking the
   &gt; road, via a cellular phone notifying him the package was picked up.  In
   &gt; addition, the spotter will also relay the vehicle description to include
   &gt; its license plate number or vehicle description.  Once the second
   &gt; individual receives this information and observes the vehicle he will
   &gt; then remotely detonate the mine.  GUL reportedly has received
   &gt; approximately 50 of these mines in order for them to carry out their
   &gt; operation.
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt; INS MEET TO PLAN AN SVBIED ATTACK
   &gt; Organization(s) Involved: FOREIGN FIGHTERS,INTER-SERVICES INTELLIGENCE
   &gt; DIRECTORATE,OPPOSING MILITANT FORCES
   &gt; 14 JAN 2009, TF CASTLE INTSUM 4311, NSI
   &gt;
   &gt; (SECRET//REL TO USA, ISAF, NATO) AAF MOVE BLUE JINGLE TRUCK VBIED TO
   &gt; SAROBI DISTRICT
   &gt;
   &gt; ON 5 JANUARY 2009, FROM 2100 TO 2300 HOURS LOCAL TIME, AAF COMMANDERS
   &gt; ((NAZIR)), ((HALLIMULLAH)), ((MALANG)) BASED IN WANA, SOUTH WAZIRISTAN
   &gt; AGENCY (SWA), FEDERALLY ADMINISTERED TRIBAL AREAS (FATA), PAKISTAN, HELD
   &gt; A MEETING TO DISCUSS THEIR PLANS TO AVENGE THE DEATH OF ZAMARAI.  THE
   &gt; MEETING WAS CONDUCTED AT THE RESIDENCE OF HAJI ((YACOUB)) IN WANA.  ALSO
   &gt; IN ATTENDANCE WERE THREE UNIDENTIFIED OLDER ARAB MALES, WHO WERE
   &gt; CONSIDERED IMPORTANT.  (SOURCE COMMENT:  THE ARABS WERE BELIEVED TO BE
   &gt; IMPORTANT BECAUSE THEY HAD A LARGE SECURITY CONTINGENT WITH THEM.) AT
   &gt; LEAST ONE OF THE THREE UNIDENTIFIED ARABS IN ATTENDANCE WAS PROFICIENT
   &gt; IN THE PASHTUN LANGUAGE AND THE ARABS WERE ACCOMPANIED BY APPROXIMATELY
   &gt; 20 ARAB BODYGUARDS.  ((HAMID GUL)), A FORMER MEMBER OF PAKISTAN'S
   &gt; INTER-SERVICES INTELLIGENCE (ISI), WAS IN ATTENDANCE AT THE MEETING
   &gt; ALSO.  HAMID GUL WAS DESCRIBED AS BEING AN OLDER MAN AND A VERY
   &gt; IMPORTANT PERSON FROM ISI.  (COMMENT:  HAMID GUL WAS DIRECTOR GENERAL OF
   &gt; ISI FROM 1987-1989 AND, ACCORDING TO ISI, HAS NOT BEEN AN OFFICIAL WITH
   &gt; ISI SINCE THAT TIME.  IT WAS NOT KNOWN WHETHER HAMID GUL WAS ACTING WITH
   &gt; THE KNOWLEDGE OR CONSENT OF ISI, OR WHETHER ANY PORTIONS OF ISI WERE
   &gt; AWARE OF HIS ACTIVITIES.)
   &gt; THE MEETING ATTENDEES WERE SADDENED BY THE NEWS OF ZAMARAI'S DEATH AND
   &gt; DISCUSSED PLANS TO COMPLETE ZAMARAI'S LAST MISSION BY FACILITATING THE
   &gt; MOVEMENT OF A SUICIDE VEHICLE-BORNE IMPROVISED EXPLOSIVE DEVICE (SVBIED)
   &gt; FROM PAKISTAN TO AFGHANISTAN THROUGH THE KHAN PASS, VARIANT:  KHAND
   &gt; PASS.  (COMMENT:  THE KHAN PASS IS LOCATED IN SWA AND HAS BEEN
   &gt; FREQUENTLY USED BY AAF AND ARAB FORCES IN THE PAST.)  THE SVBIED WAS
   &gt; DESCRIBED AS A DARK BLUE MAZDA JINGA TRUCK WITH A GRAYISH WHITE HOOD.
   &gt; AS OF 3 JANUARY, THE SVBIED WAS LOCATED IN AZAM WARSAK, SWA.  DURING THE
   &gt; MEETING, THE ATTENDEES FORMULATED THE PLAN TO MOVE THE SVBIED, DRIVEN BY
   &gt; AN UNIDENTIFIED ARAB, ON 10 JANUARY 2009 THROUGH THE KHAN PASS.  THE
   &gt; MILITANTS PLANNED TO TARGET SAROBI, AFGHANISTAN, WITH THE SVBIED.
   &gt; (COMMENT: SAROBI IS LIKELY A REFERENCE TO SAROBI DISTRICT, PAKTIKA
   &gt; PROVINCE.) HAMID GUL ENCOURAGED THE AAF LEADERS TO FOCUS THEIR OPERATION
   &gt; INSIDE OF AFGHANISTAN IN EXCHANGE FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN'S
   &gt; SECURITY FORCES TURNING A BLIND EYE TO THE PRESENCE OF AAF COMMANDERS
   &gt; AND FIGHTERS IN PAKISTAN (NFI).  ADDITIONALLY, THE AAF LEADERS APPROVED
   &gt; A PLAN TO SEND 50 ARAB AND 50 WAZIRI FIGHTERS TO GHAZNI PROVINCE,
   &gt; AFGHANISTAN IN EARLY FEBRUARY 2009.  ACCORDING TO HAMID GUL, THE AERIAL
   &gt; THREATS IN THE AREA WERE CONTROLLED FROM THE AIRPORT IN WANA.
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt; scott stewart wrote:
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; Thanks. Matt Powers from Research is working it too.
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;  
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; *From:* ct-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:ct-bounces@stratfor.com] *On
   &gt;&gt; Behalf Of *Ryan Abbey
   &gt;&gt; *Sent:* Monday, July 26, 2010 1:26 PM
   &gt;&gt; *To:* CT AOR
   &gt;&gt; *Subject:* Re: [CT] FW: Guidance on the leaks
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;  
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; On it.
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;
   ------------------------------------------------------------------------
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; *From: *"scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   &gt;&gt; *To: *"CT AOR" &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   &gt;&gt; *Sent: *Monday, July 26, 2010 1:16:40 PM
   &gt;&gt; *Subject: *[CT] FW: Guidance on the leaks
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; Ryan and Colby,
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; Can you guys please look into this?
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;  
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;  
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;  
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;  
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; *From:* scott stewart [mailto:scott.stewart@stratfor.com]
   &gt;&gt; *Sent:* Monday, July 26, 2010 1:15 PM
   &gt;&gt; *To:* 'Analyst List'
   &gt;&gt; *Cc:* 'CT AOR'
   &gt;&gt; *Subject:* RE: Guidance on the leaks
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;  
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; Yes, it would be good to know where the information on Gul came from.
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;  
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; Ia**ll get some people on it.
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;  
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;  
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;  
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;  
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; *From:* analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
   &gt;&gt; [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] *On Behalf Of *George Friedman
   &gt;&gt; *Sent:* Monday, July 26, 2010 1:09 PM
   &gt;&gt; *To:* analysts@stratfor.com
   &gt;&gt; *Subject:* Guidance on the leaks
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;  
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; There was a huge amount of low level information in the leaks.  It was
   &gt;&gt; overwhelmingly low level tactical reports and trivia.
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; There was one thing in them that wasn't.  That was the stuff that
   &gt;&gt; concerned ISI operations in Afghanistan as well as memos on
   &gt;&gt; conversations between senior U.S. officials and Pakistani officials.
   &gt;&gt; That stuff had much higher clearance and ought not have been in
   &gt;&gt; databases containing after-action reports by small units.  The ISI is
   &gt;&gt; technically friendly intelligence agency and the discussion of their
   &gt;&gt; covert operations in Afghanistan potentially reveals sources and
   &gt;&gt; methods that are tightly compartmentalized, if for no other reason
   &gt;&gt; than to keep the political fallout for a minimum.
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; As in any intelligence dump, I'm not interested in 99 percent of the
   &gt;&gt; stuff.  It is this 1 percent that interests me for two reasons.
   &gt;&gt; First, it should not have resided in the same database as the other
   &gt;&gt; stuff.  Second, very few people should have clearance to both
   &gt;&gt; databases on a need to know basis. In other words, the person with
   &gt;&gt; access to the ISI file might have clearance to tactical combat
   &gt;&gt; reports, but normally he would be noticed accessing them.
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; Regardless of classification, all systems have document tracking and
   &gt;&gt; basic usage warnings. If someone were to access all of these
   &gt;&gt; documents, he would be noticed.  So the issue is first, what was the
   &gt;&gt; ISI file doing mingled with tactical intelligence and who who would
   &gt;&gt; have the ability and need to access both, because at this level of
   &gt;&gt; usage, he would be noticed.
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; In a case like this, you ignore the 99 percent.  You focus on the 1
   &gt;&gt; percent that shouldn't have been buried.
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; I need someone to search what is available for information on ISI and
   &gt;&gt; Gul.  See what you can find.  I am going to hold the Weekly until this
   &gt;&gt; is done.
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; --
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; George Friedman
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; Founder and CEO
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; Stratfor
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; 700 Lavaca Street
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; Suite 900
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; Austin, Texas 78701
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;  
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; Phone  512-744-4319
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; Fax  512-744-4334
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; --
   &gt;&gt; Ryan Abbey
   &gt;&gt; Tactical Intern
   &gt;&gt; Stratfor
   &gt;&gt; ryan.abbey@stratfor.com
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;
   &gt; --
   &gt; Matthew Powers
   &gt; STRATFOR Research ADP
   &gt; Matthew.Powers@stratfor.com
   &gt;
</description>
    <date>2010-07-26 20:54:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/364817_fw-ct-fw-guidance-on-the-leaks-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>longbow99@earthlink.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>365135</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] Afghan Sources in Wikileaks
</title>
    <description>   He's a dumb ass

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Mon, 2 Aug 2010 14:18:03 -0400
   To: 'Fred Burton'&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: FW: [CT] Afghan Sources in Wikileaks

   He might enjoy prison...

    

    

   From: ct-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:ct-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf
   Of Fred Burton
   Sent: Monday, August 02, 2010 2:12 PM
   To: CT AOR
   Subject: Re: [CT] Afghan Sources in Wikileaks

    

   I think they are setting Manning up for a Treason prosecution (death
   penalty) and a life plea if he rolls over on others.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Matthew Powers &lt;matthew.powers@stratfor.com&gt;

   Sender: ct-bounces@stratfor.com

   Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2010 13:03:47 -0500

   To: CT &gt;&gt; 'CT AOR'&lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;

   ReplyTo: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;

   Subject: [CT] Afghan Sources in Wikileaks

    

   Below are a few of the leaked documents that appear to out Afghan
   informants, with relevant sections bolded.  Certainly not an exhaustive
   list, am only up through March 2007, likely many more, but did not want
   e-mail to become unwieldy. 

   3/27/2007 4:30

   Size and Composition of Patrol:  29 x US, 1 x CAT 1 TERP, 30 x ANA (6 x
   HMMWVs, 3 x Ford Rangers)

   A.Type of patrol:Mounted AND Dismounted

   B.Task and Purpose of Patrol: 3/C conducts leader engagement, QA/QC of
   various projects, and ANP assessment in Sar Hawze district vicinity WB 015
   645 NLT 270430MAR07, in order to assess governance and security conditions
   of the district and provide support to the district level government.   

   C.Time of Return: 1100Z

   D.Routes used and Approximate times from point A to B:
              
   &gt;From Grid/FOB To Grid/FOB Route Travel
   FOB OE Sar Hawze District center RTE Jeep / Navigator (100 mins), 10-25
   km/h
   Sar Hawze District center FOB OE RTE Navigator / Jeep (100 mins), 10-25
   km/h

   E.Disposition of routes used: RTE Jeep remains green, however, river
   crossings are becoming slightly more difficult due to the highly
   trafficked bypasses.  Water levels appear to be average, but the roads
   leading to the crossings are degraded significantly.  The grid WB 10602
   47169 remains treacherous, as LNs have dug away at the mountain to allow
   traffic to pass, however, the erosion next to the road will
   catastrophically fail during the next influx of precipitation.  RTE
   Navigator remains amber at best, and is still heavily pitted and deformed
   from the hundreds of potholes caused by heavy traffic and rainfall. 
   Recommend to propose RTE Navigator as a road project. 
       

   F.Intelligence: (HUMINT/PROPHET/OBSERVATION): Conducted a private meeting
   with one of the police chiefs sources.  His name is Abdul Rahman.  In this
   meeting he told us that earlier this morning he spotted Engineer Mujeed
   along with 25 other personnel.  He said that Mujeed was heavily armed and
   was in the middle of a movement near the town of Kandele.  We were told
   that the group was split into 2 groups.  One of 12 and the other 14.  This
   source told that he has only seen Mujeed twice before in his life but was
   certain it was him.  The groups were wearing predominantly black and white
   garb, and there was a donkey spotted with them.  The source, Rahman,
   informed us that he was moving about an historic area in the vicinity of
   Kandele, a small village consisting of two compounds.  Additionally, Wali
   Mohammed said that he enjoys freedom of maneuver in the area and he has
   occupied a fighting position/cave in that area.  When asked how far away
   the group was spotted, the source estimated about 30km to the north
   northeast.  The group was armed with AK-47s, RPGs, and rockets (probably
   RPGs).  The source has reported to Wali Muhammad  that the last time
   Mujeed was in the area approximately 6 months ago, he came to Rahmans
   compound and burned supplies given to him by coalition forces and
   threatened to kill people the next time the LNs cooperate or receive
   anything from the CFs.  At the time of reporting, Wali Mohammad said he
   had his ANP out in Sar Hawze investigating to see if they could gather
   more information.  The source also told us that the only way to get to his
   location was to dismount vehicles in the vicinity of WB 075 603, the
   village of Towdabay, and move into the mountains.  Rahman seemed genuinely
   concerned for the safety of Sar Hawze, and even more so, he appeared to be
   very loyal to Wali Mohammed.  Rahman was open with his information,
   appeared to rattle off the information quickly, and was formerly a UNAMA
   employee.  It is interesting to note, Wali Mohammed  has a lot of support
   from the local people and will be a key player for future missions.  He
   has started an informant program (unknown how it is funded) that employs
   multiple sources to gain intelligence for him.  The sources include a
   female source that works all around the district, and a special source in
   the village of Martsak  currently, the Martsak source is in Miram Shah
   conducting intelligence gathering for Wali Mohammed.  The sources report
   to Wali Mohammed at random times, but roughly once a month.  Wali Mohammed
   was very careful in protecting the sources identify  he removed all
   unnecessary personnel from the room, only allowing his bodyguard and us to
   remain.  NFTR.

   G.Local Nationals encountered:  
   Name: Wali Mohammed
   Position: Police Chief of Sar Hawze
   Location: Sar Hawze district center
   General Information:  Today, Wali Mohammed was very anxious to inform us
   that one of his sources had information regarding Engineer Mujeed  this is
   the second time he has reported information on Mujeed in the past 4 days. 
   He appears to remain concerned for the safety of his people, and was very
   willing to accompany our patrol to assess the projects in his village. 
   Today was a major IO victory, as the villagers of Sar Hawze were able to
   see US forces, ANP from Sar Hawze, elders of Sar Hawze, and ANA all
   working together as one, cooperating to improve the village of Sar Hawze
   as we walked from project to project.  As mentioned above, Wali Mohammed
   impressed us with his use of LN sources to gain situational awareness on
   enemy activity in his district.  This is something never before seen in AO
   Destroyer, and we were quite pleased with his proactivty and concern. 

   Name: Pir Mohommed
   Position: Sar Hawze Elder
   Location: Sar Hawze district center
   General Information:   Despite the abrupt ending to our engagement with
   him at FOB OE, he was not upset at all with US forces and greeted very
   warmly with hugs.  He was escorted by Ghulam, and immediately asked us how
   we were doing and was very receptive our visit.  He was happy to see us
   because of our developing relationship and also because of our frequent
   visits.  We spoke to him about the projects and our last visit  he showed
   us all of the projects sites as promised in our last engagement and was
   extremely friendly.  We believe atmospherics in the village were
   significantly more positive due to our growing relationship with Pir
   Mohammed. 

   Name: Abdul Rahman
   Position: Source for Wali Mohammed
   Location: Sar Hawze district center
   General Information:   Kharooti tribe, Sipadre sub-tribe, and his fathers
   name is Mohammed Hussein.  He was very straight forward and got to the
   point.  He provided all information he knew, and also answered all
   questions that we had for him.  He was relaxed being around coalition
   forces, even the ANA commander, and seemed genuinely concerned.  Although
   we cannot verify, the manner in which he provided information to us seemed
   to be honest.  We look forward to hearing follow-up reports from him, and
   he mentioned that he would return to Wali Mohammed with further
   information on Mujeed as soon as it became available.  He seemed very
   loyal to Wali Mohammed and the objective of gathering intelligence.

   3/23/2007 0:00

   SUBJECT:  

   Size and Composition of Patrol:  18x US, 1x Cat 1 TERP

   A.Type of patrol:Mounted

   B.Task and Purpose of Patrol: 1/D/2-87 IN conducts Leader Engagement/HCA
   Distro in Sharmakhel and Moni Khel NLT 0900z 22 MAR 2007 and 0700z 23 MAR
   2007 IOT conduct win support of the people of Afghanistan and assess
   effectiveness of IROA leadership.

   C.Time of Return:

   D.Routes used and Approximate times from point A to B:
              
   &gt;From Grid/FOB To Grid/FOB Route Travel
   Margha COB Sharmakhel RTE EXCEL 10-15 km/h
   Sharmakhel Margha COB RTE EXCEL 10-15 km/h
   Margha COB Moni Khel RTE EXCEL 10-15 km/h
   Moni Khel Margha COB RTE EXCEL 10-15 km/h

   E.Local Nationals encountered: 
   A.
   Name: Shabib
   Fathers Name: Habib Gul
   Tribe: Babubli
   Sub-tribe: Haji Khel
   Village:  Marghah
   Location: Marghah COB
   Position: Informant
   General Information:
   Reported that Zardran (commander) is holding a meeting in about 2-3 days
   with about 300-400 Taliban. He is planning on holding the meeting at
   Mameed Millah, which is a large compound located on a mountain near the
   village of Harseen. He stated that the 300-400 Taliban are staging at
   Miramshah. Shabib received this information from his brother who is a Taxi
   driver, who goes from Marghah to Miramshah Pakistan. The informant stated
   that his motive for giving us the information was that his nephew is in
   the ANA at Bermel and he wanted to protect him.

   B.
   Name: Adam Khan
   Fathers Name: Hajab Khan 
   Tribe: Safiuli
   Sub-tribe: Misman Khel
   Village: Moni Khel
   Location: Moni Khel
   General Information:
   We engaged him and a few of his neighbors about the local area. He stated
   that they are pleased to see that the Americans have built a COB at
   Marghah but he was concerned that it was not safe for the herders in the
   area because they go into the mountains to retrieve there sheep and goats.
   He is worried that we would think that the herders were Taliban. He also
   wanted us to try to build a dam because it would benefit all of the local
   farmers.

   C.
   Name: Akbar
   Fathers Name: Shawa Khan   
   Tribe:  Shaifali
   Sub-tribe: Sharmakhel
   Village: Sharmakhel
   Position: Grocery store owner
   Location: Sharmakhel
   General Information:
   Spoke with him for about 15 minutes. We spoke about his local business. He
   stated that 50-80 people visit his shop everyday and the shop is opened
   from 7AM to about 6 PM. He was not overly happy about the COB and wasnt
   really receptive to our presence. He really wasnt interested in hearing
   what we had to say.

   F.Disposition of local security:
   G.HCA Products Distributed: 8 water Jugs, 10 boxes of chai, 4 cans of baby
   formula, 10 bags of flour, 20 notebooks

   H.Atmospherics: (reception of HCA, reactions to ANSF and Coalition forces,
   etc): In both of the villages that we visited the children were the first
   to greet us. After about 5 minutes the adult males from the villages came
   out to speak with us. They were real receptive to the HCA and wanted us to
   help the villages more. 

   I.Afghan Conservation Corps nominations/Status:

   J.Conclusion and Recommendation (Patrol Leader): (Include to what extent
   the mission was accomplished and recommendations as to patrol equipment
   and tactics.)

   The mission was accomplished. The tailgate med caps have been effective in
   the past and we should see positive results from them in the local area
   around the COP. We need to continue to engage the Local villages around
   the COP in order to build a good relationship between the locals and team
   headhunter which will increase the amount of walk in sources. Nothing
   further.

   12/5/2006 0:00

   Meeting with COL Shahwali, ANP Provincial Officer. Discussion Items:
   During lunch, discussed the recent NY Times article which discussed the
   poor ANP. Shahwali says MoI has said the article is incorrect.  I told him
   I believe the comments regarding poor accountability and corruption were
   correct.  We discussed it in some
   more detail.

   Discussed several bits of information:

   1) Moulawi Sharrif, occassionally operating in his property in Janikhel
   district, near Shakhilabad, but
   usually in Pakistan or Dubai (where he owns a business) is still
   supporting TB activities financially and was involved in the murder of
   Adam Khan, former Shakhilabad SG.  His nephew, Sayed Sanad, was captured
   and killed by the tribe of Adam Khan after the murder.  Five others were
   detained and confessed to complicity in the murder but the tribe asked for
   their release, saying the killing of Sayed was retribution enough. Most of
   this has been reported before, to include the info re: Moulawi Shariff. 
   Niam, a farmer in JK, maintains Shariff&amp;amp;amp;apos;s property and
   interests in his absence.

   2) an ANP informant went to Auband, Ghazni and spoke to Moulawi
   Shamsullah, reportedly a very influential TB leader... he said that the
   one legged mullah in Mest, at the Kalagee Mosque is still greatly
   influencing the mullahs and TB in the areas around Mest and KK.  Other
   information pertaining to the one legged (missing right leg) nameless
   Mullah suggests he was associated with the S-BAD DC burning and the
   assassination of Adam Khan.  Adam Khan&amp;amp;amp;apos;s wife reported seeing
   a one legged man leading activity the night of Khan&amp;amp;amp;apos;s murder.

   3) Gul Mohammad, owns a pharmacy in Shakhilabad, from KK, gave fuel to TB
   for the burning of the SBAD DC.  Prior to the attack, Gul reportedly
   inflated the numbers and tried to scare the locals and the ANP (told them
   to give their weapons to the TB if they attacked), said 60 - 70 men were
   going to attack IOT scare ANP away.

   We discussed the fact that ANP should detain individuals they believe are
   complicit in crimes.  Numerous excuses were made by the SBAD SG. 
   Discussed the MK event a week ago re: Taj Mohammad, further ingerpointing
   between ANP and ANA, discussed the need for ANSF cooperation.

   Discussed ongoing district center project, Ajmal Khan asked for us to ask
   the contractor to stop work as the concrete cannot settle any more this
   season and to resume work in the spring.

   Re: solar lights in district, asked for the lights to be emplaced soon
   before the holes ice up and work is no longer possible.  Holes are dug and
   ready.

   Requested Ajmal Khan bring us a list of needy families in SBAD for
   possible HA distro.

   Shahwali said that EN Mujeed has come down from his mountain area and is
   living somewhere else in Sar Hawza.  Shawali will try to get more
   information.  Says many locals in Paktika believe Mujeed is being paid by
   the GoA or CF and that is why no one is taking any action against him. 
   Reported by the Shura in a meeting with SH SG Qadir Gul,
   Mujeed&amp;amp;amp;apos;s men fired an RPG at a CF helo that flew overhead 3
   days ago, no contact.

   end of report.

   Additional Meeting Attendees: Ajmal Khan, Shakhilabad Sub-Governor; Ajmal,
   linguist
    
   PRT Assessment: It was a good chance to meet Ajmal Khan.  He is full of
   excuses on why he and his ANP cannot do things.  Blamed numerous things
   other than their own ineffectiveness.  Shahwali, as always, was full of
   information and cooperative.

   11/19/2006 0:00

   Meeting with Afghan National Security Force. Meeting led by Govenor Gulab
   Mangol to Discuss the upcoming Operation West Hammer. Discussion Items:
   Role of the CF; Role of the ANP; Role fo the ANA; Use of Auxillary ANP/
   Local Tribemen; CSS Plan for resupply and payment of Auxillary ANP;
   Location of enemy and denial enemy movement.
    
   Problem Mitigation Before Next Meeting: The kandak XO and the ANP CoP will
   talk with Alishang CoP and Elder Ashraf from Gonopol seperately about
   supporting the GioA and the CF for Alishang with people and weapons
    
   Additional Meeting Attendees: ANA Kandak XO, Jon; ANP Provincial CoP
   Omaryar; PRT Commander Lt Col Bredenkamp; PRT S2 CPT Lendo; PRT PTAT Team
   Chief TSgt Pacheco; Dyn-Corp Team Chief Mark.
    
   The PRT informed the GoA officially of the existence of Operation West
   Hammer and what the CF were planning on doing during the operation. The
   PRT informed the Governor, as well as the ANA and the ANP about the plan
   and asked for thier input on how the PRT can positively affect the
   province with the help of the GoA. The Governor was very supportive but
   could not understand that this operation is a shaping operation for future
   kinetic Operation to be conducted by 4/82nd ABN BN. He was very happy that
   it would happy. He was concerned that the enemy would escape through the
   mountains and return to terrorize the people after we leave. He was
   concerned about the ANSF and the CF would not be able to close with and
   kill the enemy becuase the enemy would leave when they heard the CF
   coming. He was concerned that we would not know where the enemy was
   concentrated and spend ost of our time looking for them. He was concerned
   that the collateral damage be limited and that the women, children, and
   non-combatants be able to leave a village before the CF and ANSF engaged
   the insurgents in the villages. He also stressed the need for OPSEC with
   his people and stressed that the operation not leave the room.

   He also mentioned that Zier Jon, who is a THT informant, is a double agent
   and that he provides most of his data to the enemy.
   The Kandak XO breifed the plan to incorporate the Alishang CoP and why he
   has the most to loose or to gain. He was the right person for the job
   becuase he was able to explain it with description and first hand
   knowledge. It was also good that it came from him as to make it look like
   an Afghan Plan and not a US plan that we were pushing on the Afghans.

   The provincial CoP had a few issues with the plan about Command and
   Control etc. His first issue was where the people that we are planning on
   using are coming from. When we explained it he was very interested in
   bringing them under the umbrella of the ANP as to have C2 on them and not
   to create a warlord out of the Alishang CoP. We all agreed on this. We
   should be able to bring them under the employment of ANP augmentees. He
   was also concerned about feeding them and paying them. This was taken care
   of when we said that they
   would be paid as augmentees. Our commander brought up a good point though.
   Why do these people ned money to fight when they fought the Russians
   without pay. The answer was that they needed money to feed thier
   familites. MTF. The CDR also brought up the fact there is a man in the
   Gonopol, an elder named Ashraf, that has offered to assist the CF and the
   GoA if and when they enter the Gonopol. The ANA XO and the CoP said that
   they would ask Ashraf to come in and they would look into using him, if
   not for forces to help, than for PID purposes. The meeting was concluded
   with the Governor asking for the next ANSF meeting to be held at the PRT
   with nly the ANA, ANP, PRT, and Gov in attendence. The S2 asked why the
   NDS was not involved and the Gov stated that they could not trust the NDS
   director. This is telling of the current relatiohsip with the NDS. Alot to
   do with DR. Abdullah no doubt. The ANA XO and the ANP CoP stated that they
   would have a COA drawn up for submission to the Govenor on Tues at the
   ANSF meeting at the PRT. This will be first ANSF meeting in over 2 months.
   Definitley a step in the right direction.

   1/28/2004 0:00

   TRANSLATION OF A NIGHT LETTER IVO ORGUN-E: THE POLICE CHIEF OF ZORMAT PD
   GAVE THE LETTER TO USSF.  IT WAS HAND WRITTEN ON A PRINTED TALIBAN
   LETTERHEAD.  THE LETTERHEAD IS PRINTED IN PASHTO AND ENGLISH.  THE POLICE
   CHIEF STATES THAT THE LETTER WAS PASSED TO AN INFORMANT (WOULD NOT
   DISCLOSE ID) FROM MAULAWE ABDUL RAZAAQ. RAZAAQ CLAIMS TO BE A DISAFFECTED
   MEMBER OF THE ZORMAT AREA TALIBAN.  RAZAAQ STATED THAT A MEETING OF THE
   ADDRESSORS WAS HELD AT THE VILLAGE OF SULTANI, NEAR ORGUN-E.  POLICE CHIEF
   STATES THAT THE TERM &amp;amp;amp;quot;PISTOL&amp;amp;amp;quot; REFERS TO A
   PEN-TYPE ZIP GUN THAT FIRES A SMALL CALIBER PISTOL ROUND.  THE CONTACT
   PROVIDED HIM WITH SUCH A DEVICE AND HE TURNED IT OVER TO US.  THE LETTER
   WAS WRITTEN ON 22 JAN 04 AND READS:

   HELLO MY FRIENDS, BROTHER ABDULLAH, DR. SARWAR, MAULAWE KHILOLAH, DEAR
   MULLAH AKHTAR, HAJI JUMA GUL, MULLAH HAJI SHER.

   FROM SAFE RAHMAN MONSUR, GUL RAHMAN, MAULAWE ABDUL RAZAAQ, AMIR MOHAMMED
   SUMADI,

   DR. SARWAR SHOULD KNOW THAT GUL RAHMAN&amp;amp;amp;apos;&amp;amp;amp;apos;S FAMILY
   NEEDS MONEY. TELL HIS FAMILY THAT GUL RAHMAN WAS INJURED BUT IS FINE NOW.
   AND DEAR DR. SARWAR, THE FOUR MOTORCYCLES THAT WE SENT ARE FOR MULLAH
   AKHTAR, ALUM GUL, KHUDI NAZER, AND HAJI SHER.  EACH INDIVIDUAL IS ALSO TO
   RECEIVE 10,000 RUPEES. AND ANYONE WHO NEEDS A PISTOL, PLEASE GIVE HIM ONE.
   OUR JIHAD WILL NEVER BE OVER AGAINST THE CHRISTIANS AND JEWS.  DO NOT
   ALLOW PEOPLE TO TAKE A VOTER CARD.  DROP FLIERS AT EVERYONES HOME TELLING
   THEM NOT TO VOTE. THOSE THAT DO WILL HAVE NO REASON TO COMPLAIN BECAUSE OF
   THE CONSEQUENCES.

   FROM GUL RAHMAN, HELLO TO MY FRIEND DR. SARWAR. AND FROM GAMAR DEN, ZURMAT
   SAYS THAT DR. SARWAR KNOWS AHMED ZI, THE SECURITY GUARD OF THE ZORMAT
   BAZAAR, IS TO RECEIVE 5,000 RUPEES BECAUSE HE IS HELPING OUR FRIENDS VERY
   MUCH. 

   PLEASE SEND RESPONSE BACK BY ABDULLAH OF AHMED KHIEL VILLAGE AND PLEASE
   DR. SARWAR PAY OUR MEN AND YOU WILL BE PAID BACK BY ABDUL RAZAAQ.  DEAR
   DR. SARWAR, YOU TOLD ME THAT YOU HAD PREPARED 15 PEOPLE WHO WERE READY FOR
   JIHAD BUT ONLY TWO HAVE SHOWN UP.
</description>
    <date>2010-08-02 20:19:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 03:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/365135_re-ct-afghan-sources-in-wikileaks-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>365806</id>
    <title>Re: TrapWire (TW)
</title>
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</description>
    <date>2010-09-23 01:44:38</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/365806_re-trapwire-tw-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>rbaker@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>oconnor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anya.alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bbronder@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>365910</id>
    <title>Fw: question
</title>
    <description>TrapWire update, passed to Bob

------Original Message------
From: Blake Sawyer
To: burton@stratfor.com
Subject: Re: question
Sent: Aug 16, 2010 4:48 PM

Sort of... The first RFO was completed but a required signature that was overlooked by abraxas caused the RFO to be re-posted through the 24th.  Barring any other road blocks, I expect the award to be offered on or about the 25th.  I'll keep you posted.

----- Original Message -----
From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
To: Sawyer, Blake
Sent: Mon Aug 16 16:28:53 2010
Subject: question

Blake, Is TrapWire up and running?  Thanks


Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2010-08-17 00:32:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/365910_fw-question-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>oconnor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>366448</id>
    <title>Re: TrapWire (TW)
</title>
    <description>VGhhbmsgZ29vZG5lc3MNCg0KT01HDQoNCkkgbmVlZCB0byBzZWUgd2hhdCB3
ZSBhcmUgcHVzaGluZyBpbi4NCg0KLS0tLS0tT3JpZ2luYWwgTWVzc2FnZS0t
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ZXdhcnQNClRvOiBSb2RnZXIgQmFrZXINCkNjOiBHZW9yZ2UgRnJpZWRtYW4N
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c29tZXRoaW5nIHRoYXQgY2FtZSB1cCBpbiBhIG1lZXRpbmcgSSBoYWQgd2l0
aCBEYW4gQnVydG9uIGZyb20gVFcgbGFzdCB3ZWVrLiBXZSdyZSBvbiBpdC4N
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b2RnZXIgQmFrZXINCkNjOiBHZW9yZ2UgRnJpZWRtYW4NCkNjOiBEYXJyeWwg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</description>
    <date>2010-09-23 01:52:46</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/366448_re-trapwire-tw-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>rbaker@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>oconnor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anya.alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bbronder@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>366609</id>
    <title>Fw: Comrade J - More details about the autopsy (and colon cancer)
</title>
    <description>   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Anya Alfano &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Sun, 26 Sep 2010 10:01:56 -0400
   To: 'TACTICAL'&lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Comrade J - More details about the autopsy (and colon cancer)
   Looks like the autopsy was actually completed before his death was made
   public, and sounds like he also had colon cancer.

   http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20100926/ARTICLE/9261027/2055/NEWS?Title=An-espionage-mystery-solved-on-an-autopsy-slab

   To print this article, open the file menu and choose Print.
   Printed on page A1

                 An espionage mystery solved on an autopsy slab

   By BARBARA PETERS SMITH

   Published: Sunday, September 26, 2010 at 1:00 a.m.

   In Moscow and Washington, if not in his adopted home of Osprey,
   speculation has sizzled about what -- or who -- killed Sergei Tretyakov,
   former KGB agent and perhaps the most prominent Russian defector of the
   post-Cold War era.

   But now it seems that Tretyakov, 53, was done in by an extra helping of
   chicken pot pie.

   Dr. Russell S. Vega, chief medical examiner for Florida's District 12,
   certified this month that the ex-spy choked to death in June. Vega also
   revealed that Tretyakov's days might have been numbered anyway -- by an
   advanced, and apparently undetected, cancer of the colon.

   It was a forensic investigation that nearly did not happen.

   When Helen Tretyakov found her husband unconscious on the living room
   floor June 13 and called 911, she and the paramedics responded as though
   he had suffered a heart attack.

   After an 18-minute attempt at resuscitation failed, the paramedics
   pronounced him dead at 7:28 p.m.

   Because Tretyakov had a doctor willing to sign his death certificate after
   the apparent heart attack, Vega said, his office initially had no interest
   in the case. That changed the next day, after a call from the Sheriff's
   Office.

   "Additional information was presented to us about his background and
   history," Vega said, "which automatically raised a degree of suspicion
   that wouldn't have existed in an average citizen's death of this type.
   Based on that additional layer of suspicion, that's when we got involved,
   and asserted jurisdiction over the case and brought him in for an
   autopsy."

   Tretyakov has been described as the most important defector ever from
   Russia to the United States. His acceptance of FBI protection in October
   2000 was linked to the high-profile arrest, four months later, of FBI
   agent Robert Phillip Hanssen on charges of selling secrets to Russia. At
   the time of his arrest, Hanssen's mother, Vivian, was living in Venice.

   In March 2001, a month after the Hanssen case broke, Tretyakov settled
   with his wife, Helen, in the peaceful Park Trace neighborhood near Pine
   View School, where they lived for more than nine years. Two weeks after he
   died there, Russian espionage was once again in the news, with the U.S.
   arrest and deportation of 10 suspected spies.

   Greeting some of those deportees on their return to Russia in July, Prime
   Minister Vladimir Putin said darkly that "traitors always end badly. They
   finish up as drunks, addicts, on the street. Recently one, for instance,
   ended his existence abroad and it was not clear what the point of it all
   was."

   But as spy watchers avidly wondered whether Putin was hinting at foul play
   against Tretyakov, Vega had already found the 5-inch-long piece of chicken
   that ended the life of the former spy.

   Vega's final report was not made public until after all toxicological and
   other lab reports had been completed.

   "In this particular case, I played on the side of caution and waited for
   all the tests to come back before finalizing the cause of death," he said.
   "In most cases I would not have done that; I would have certified it right
   then."

   Vega conducted the autopsy on June 15, after his investigator had
   interviewed Helen Tretyakov and the first responders. At this point, death
   from heart disease was still considered the most likely possibility.

   "We knew he had a history of being a pretty heavy drinker, and being
   overweight, and having high blood pressure and high cholesterol," Vega
   said. "When I get that history from anybody, and it's somebody who has an
   apparent sudden collapse, then 95 times out of a hundred or more, when we
   get those cases it's going to be a sudden death from heart disease."

   Helen Tretyakov did not make her husband's death public until July 9 --
   the same day the Russian spy exchange occurred -- calling a Washington,
   D.C., radio station to say he had died of coronary arrest. So at the time
   Vega was examining the body, only law enforcement agencies and Tretyakov's
   family and friends knew he had died. Vega said he received no pressure
   from the FBI or anyone else.

   "You know what? I took the extra degrees of scrutiny because I knew it was
   important to do so," he said. "But intellectually I knew what was going on
   from the beginning. I said this is not going to be a suspicious case; I
   don't think this guy would have been knocked off by ex-KGB agents or
   something like that. It turns out that was true, but my initial assertion
   that it was a natural death was wrong. It was a non-suspicious kind of
   accidental death."

   Proceeding with a thorough but routine autopsy, Vega looked for scars that
   might provide evidence of poisoning, and found none. He did see some
   evidence of underlying heart disease. But he also found colon cancer: a
   large tumor that, in his opinion, could have proven fatal if not diagnosed
   within a few months. Because it was not fully obstructing the colon, Vega
   said, the tumor was probably asymptomatic, and there is no evidence
   Tretyakov was aware of it. There were also indications that the cancer
   might have been in the process of spreading to Tretyakov's liver.

   Coming to the end of his examination, Vega said, "I was leaning toward the
   heart being the cause of death. And that's when I was examining the neck
   structures and found the very large obstruction in the airway."

   Even then, he said, it did not feel like a dramatic discovery.

   "We find stuff in the airways pretty frequently. So when you first get a
   hint that there's something in there, I'm not necessarily thinking this is
   a choking death," he said. "It was not until I realized that this was
   nothing that had been sitting around in the stomach for a while. It was
   really lodged, and a very long piece. I was absolutely convinced that it
   was a real choking death."

   Sending his investigator back to interview Helen Tretyakov, Vega learned
   she had made one of her husband's favorite dishes that night, chicken pot
   pie.

   "He had apparently finished dinner, and was going to make a cocktail,"
   Vega said. "It appears that he decided to have an additional helping, and
   that additional helping was the one that got stuck."

   Choking deaths are rare in adults, Vega said, unless they have some
   neurological disorder that makes it hard to swallow. But choking sometimes
   occurs when a person is intoxicated.

   "There's no way to tell for certain" if that was the case with Tretyakov,
   Vega said. "I can tell you, in a general way, intoxication can impede
   somebody's ability to clear their airway. And he had a pretty good alcohol
   level, so I think probably in this case it did contribute."

   The official cause of death for Sergei Tretyakov of Osprey is now a matter
   of public record: asphyxia due to airway obstruction. That may not
   discourage gossip by international espionage enthusiasts, but Vega
   considers the case closed. He also considers it memorable.

   "If you take away the whole spy thing," he said, "it was an interesting
   case because of such an obvious large food bolus that was causing the
   choking. We just don't see them that often."

   This story appeared in print on page A1

   Copyright (c) 2010 HeraldTribune.com - All rights reserved. Restricted use
   only.
</description>
    <date>2010-09-26 17:55:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/366609_fw-comrade-j-more-details-about-the-autopsy-and-colon-cancer.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>spytalk@comcast.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>366812</id>
    <title>Hey
</title>
    <description>Blake:  Did you guys get TrapWire up and running?  Thanks

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2010-09-14 18:15:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/366812_hey-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Blake.Sawyer@txdps.state.tx.us</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>367070</id>
    <title>Re: TrapWire (TW)
</title>
    <description>U3VnZ2VzdCB0aGF0IHdlIGZpZ3VyZSBvdXQgd2hhdCBpcyBnb2luZyBpbiBh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</description>
    <date>2010-09-23 01:41:06</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/367070_re-trapwire-tw-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>rbaker@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>oconnor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anya.alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bbronder@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>367240</id>
    <title>Re: London Terror Surveillance (not for pub)
</title>
    <description>   They said aQ

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2010 21:31:25 -0500
   To: 'Fred Burton'&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: RE: London Terror Surveillance (not for pub)

   How sure are they that it is actually AQ and not grassroots guys or
   franchise guys?

    

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, September 23, 2010 5:01 PM
   To: secure@stratfor.com
   Subject: London Terror Surveillance (not for pub)

    

   aQ terrorist surveillance has been positively identified outside of MI6
   Hqs in London.  MI5 is monitoring the terrorist suspect observed
   conducting the pre-operational surveillance.   

    

    
</description>
    <date>2010-09-24 05:15:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-16 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/367240_re-london-terror-surveillance-not-for-pub-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>367330</id>
    <title>Re: Blog Numbers
</title>
    <description>   Those good numbers?

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Aaron C. Pigeon" &lt;aaron.pigeon@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Mon, 27 Sep 2010 14:08:31 -0500
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Blog Numbers
   More or less officially launched your blog today, here's a status update:

   Since Thursday, you've gotten 150 visits, including 70 on Friday and 50 so
   far today.

   The most popular post is the first trapwire post, which has 117 views
   (different from visits).

   I have you signed up on Twitter as well:  twitter.com/fred_burton, where
   you have north of 70 followers so far, about 40 of which are from today.

   Also, tell your friends to add you on your Facebook Fan Page.

   I'd be happy to sit down and show you all this stuff and how it works
   together, if you're interested.

   --
   Aaron C. Pigeon

   STRATFOR
   Public Relations

   www.stratfor.com
   facebook.com/stratfor
   twitter.com/stratfor
</description>
    <date>2010-09-27 22:13:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/367330_re-blog-numbers-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>aaron.pigeon@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>367536</id>
    <title>Re: changed language
</title>
    <description>   Yes, will go to thousands

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@abraxasapps.com&gt;
   Date: Sat, 25 Sep 2010 20:15:15 -0400
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: RE: changed language

   Hi Fred.

   Just got back home and re-read your blog (this time from a full computer
   screen not the BBerry). Great piece of writing. Very much appreciated by
   us -- and our efforts to get the word out on how to really catch the bad
   guys.

    

   You intimated that this might turn into a larger piece for Stratfor. That
   still going to happen?

    

   Cheers, Mike

    

   -----Original Message-----
   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Saturday, September 25, 2010 10:10 AM
   To: Michael Maness
   Cc: R. Daniel Botsch
   Subject: Re: changed language

    

   http://fredburton.posterous.com/new-surveillance-tool-for-interrupting-terror

    

   ** corrected link/copy.

    

    

   Michael Maness wrote:

   &gt; Tnx Fred. Looks great. Appreciate the change.

   &gt; 

   &gt; ----- Original Message -----

   &gt; From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;

   &gt; To: R. Daniel Botsch; Michael Maness

   &gt; Sent: Sat Sep 25 10:57:10 2010

   &gt; Subject: changed language

   &gt; 

   &gt; This week, 500 surveillance cameras were activated on the NYC subway

   &gt; system to focus on pre-operational terrorist surveillance.  Camera

   &gt; surveillance technology is also operational on high-value targets (HVTs)

   &gt; in DC, Las Vegas, Los Angeles and London.    Camera surveillance

   &gt; technology is in my opinion one of the most innovative tools developed

   &gt; since 9-11 to help mitigate terrorist threats.    One of the systems

   &gt; known as TrapWire is leading the way in this field.

   &gt; 

   &gt; From a protective intelligence perspective, surveillance technology has

   &gt; the ability to share information on suspicious events or suspects

   &gt; between cities. Operationally, the ability to identify hostile

   &gt; surveillance at one target set - in multiple cities - can be used to

   &gt; neutralize terror threats by interrupting the attack cycle.  Meaning, a

   &gt; suspect conducting surveillance of  an HVT in one city can also be

   &gt; spotted by TrapWire conducting similar activity in another location,

   &gt; connecting the infamous dots.

   &gt; 

   &gt; An additional benefit of TrapWire is that the system can also be used to

   &gt; help "walk back the cat" after an attack to identify terrorist suspects

   &gt; and modus operandi. I can also see the tool being very effective in

   &gt; identifying general street crime as well.

   &gt; 

   &gt; 

   &gt; NOTICE: This email message and all attachments transmitted with it are
   intended solely for the use of the addressees and may contain legally
   privileged, protected or confidential information. If you have received
   this message in error, please notify the sender immediately by email reply
   and please delete this message from your computer and destroy any copies.

   &gt;  

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   NOTICE: This email message and all attachments transmitted with it are
   intended solely for the use of the addressees and may contain legally
   privileged, protected or confidential information. If you have received
   this message in error, please notify the sender immediately by email reply
   and please delete this message from your computer and destroy any copies.
</description>
    <date>2010-09-26 02:29:35</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/367536_re-changed-language-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.maness@abraxasapps.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>368059</id>
    <title>FW: Terrorism Intelligence Report - Security Contractors in Iraq: Tactical -- and Practical -- Considerations
</title>
    <description>   From a senior FBI Hqs agent and former DSS agent. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: jimcasey58@aol.com [mailto:jimcasey58@aol.com]
   Sent: Thursday, October 11, 2007 4:43 PM
   To: burton@stratfor.com
   Subject: Re: Terrorism Intelligence Report - Security Contractors in Iraq:
   Tactical -- and Practical -- Considerations
   Good Stuff Fred! I can just picture you and I strapping on a big 'ol one
   and leading a Blackwater team into a dangerous motorcade!  OK, so maybe
   the most dangerous thing we do is cut in line at Starbucks.  We're
   too old (and smart) for this other shit.  Jim 
    
</description>
    <date>2007-10-12 14:22:35</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 23:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/368059_fw-terrorism-intelligence-report-security-contractors-in.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>responses@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>368368</id>
    <title>Re: What a day
</title>
    <description>   I think he is screwed.

   The FBI Asst Director letter to State has not been acted on. State setting
   on it for a reason. Could be him or us collectively.
   Surmise the CIA has done him in due to his contacts with the ISI. FBI told
   me the Agency doesn't like us.

   With the DHS download of his cell and laptop, we need Steve F to generate
   the paper on what to do if the FBI shows up.

   His phone and cell numbers would also be downloaded into NSA.

   At this point, his status would be revoked I would say, entry barred as an
   undesireable alien. State would view his end run on the Canadian PPT as an
   effort to screw them.

   He could try to walk in to the US Emb Ottawa and volunteer to work for the
   CIA, who may be willing to help. Maybe not.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: George Friedman &lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Sun, 10 Oct 2010 11:26:47 -0500
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: What a day
   Too complicated for me.  I will talk with Kamran and then you can after. 

   On 10/10/10 09:33 , Fred Burton wrote:

 Yes, pls use my cell -- 512-632-9839

 Kamran Bokhari wrote:

 Today
 Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

 -----Original Message-----
 From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
 Date: Sun, 10 Oct 2010 09:25:09
 To: &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
 Cc: George Friedman&lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
 Subject: Re: What a day

 Today or Monday?

 Kamran Bokhari wrote:
  

 Will be talking to George at 1 central. If you can make it, can do a 3-way.

 ------Original Message------
 From: Fred Burton
 To: Kamran Bokhari
 Cc: friedman@att.blackberry.net
 Cc: George Friedman
 Subject: Re: What a day
 Sent: Oct 9, 2010 11:05 AM

 As a suggestion, it may be good to regroup Monday and think through next
 steps.

 Kamran Bokhari wrote:

    

  When's a good time for you guys?

 On 10/8/2010 11:44 PM, George Friedman wrote:


      

 I'm sorry this happened kamran.  I don't know how to solve this problem and neither does fred. Let's talk when you feel up to it.


 ------Original Message------
 From: Kamran Bokhari
 To: George Friedman
 To: Fred Burton
 ReplyTo: Kamran Bokhari
 Subject: What a day
 Sent: Oct 8, 2010 10:11 PM

 After five hours of waiting in a detention area at the border with the family we were denied entry because I have been refused visa in the past. Essentially after almost six years there is zero difference in my status in the eyes of U.S. authorities. Went through several rounds of questioning. In fact, they brought 3 DHS agents from their field office in Buffalo to interrogate me. Pretty much every single question was about my job and the people that I meet when I travel to my aor. They took my wallet, my phones, my laptops and went thru everything. Even asked me for my passwords to the laptops and blackberries. Completely humiliated, disgusted, and frustrated. In the end my wife and my children were crying and Chandni blaming me for ruining their lives. I need to think about what I am going to do moving forward.
 Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T


 Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T


        

 Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
    

   --

   George Friedman

   Founder and CEO

   Stratfor

   700 Lavaca Street

   Suite 900

   Austin, Texas 78701

   Phone  512-744-4319

   Fax  512-744-4334
</description>
    <date>2010-10-10 19:01:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-20 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/368368_re-what-a-day-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>369305</id>
    <title>WikiLeaks
</title>
    <description>Jim:  How bad will the next round be?  Got any idea?  Thx

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2010-11-27 19:45:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 23:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/369305_wikileaks-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>jimcasey58@aol.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>369899</id>
    <title>Re: TrapWire POC
</title>
    <description>   michael.maness@abraxasapps.com

   Have them use my name as an intro and Stratfor.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 9 Dec 2010 18:15:57 -0500
   To: 'Fred Burton'&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: FW: TrapWire POC

   ??  Trying to take care of your boys.

    

    

    

   From: Dillard, Denny L. [mailto:DENNY.L.DILLARD@saic.com]
   Sent: Thursday, December 09, 2010 4:45 PM
   To: stewart@stratfor.com
   Subject: TrapWire POC

    

   Hi Scott,

    

   Do you have a name and number for a point of contact at Abraxas so I can
   open a dialogue with them about TrapWire and a possible collaboration?

    

   Thanks,

    

   Denny

    

    

   Denny L. Dillard | SAIC

   Senior Program Manager |Infrastructure, Logistics, and Product
   Solutions Group

   office phone: 303.963.5624

   mobile phone: 443.876.9047

   email: dillarddl@saic.com

    

   Science Applications International Corporation

   8301 Greensboro Drive, Suite 120

   McLean, VA 22102

   www.saic.com

    

   Energy  |  Environment  |  National Security  |  Health  |  Critical
   Infrastructure

    

   Please consider the environment before printing this email.

    

   This e-mail and any attachments to it are intended only for the identified
   recipients. It may contain proprietary or otherwise legally protected
   information of SAIC. Any unauthorized use or disclosure of this
   communication is strictly prohibited. If you have received this
   communication in error, please notify the sender and delete or otherwise
   destroy the e-mail and all attachments immediately.

    
</description>
    <date>2010-12-10 00:30:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/369899_re-trapwire-poc-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>369979</id>
    <title>Re: WikiLeaks question
</title>
    <description>Did that one enlisted Army dude leak all that stuff?  

------Original Message------
From: Michael Posillico
To: Fred Burton {6}
Subject: Re: WikiLeaks question
Sent: Nov 27, 2010 12:50 PM

No but the G is very concerned particularly on Iraq traffic which will expose the underbelly of our role

----- Original Message -----
From: burton@stratfor.com &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
To: Posillico, Michael
Sent: Sat Nov 27 13:42:33 2010
Subject: WikiLeaks question

Mike:  How bad will the next round be?  Got any idea?  Thx

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T


Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2010-11-27 20:01:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/369979_re-wikileaks-question-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>PosillicoM2@state.gov</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>370144</id>
    <title>Re: More for the blog
</title>
    <description>   How many more do you need before launch?

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Aaron C. Pigeon" &lt;aaron.pigeon@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2010 14:35:31 -0500
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: More for the blog
   posted

   http://fredburton.posterous.com/new-surveillance-tool-for-interrupting-terror
   On 9/22/10 1:47 PM, Fred Burton wrote:


 This week, 500 surveillance cameras were activated on the NYC subway
 system to focus on pre-operational terrorist surveillance.  The
 surveillance technology is also operational on high-value targets (HVTs)
 in DC, Las Vegas, Los Angeles and London and is called TrapWire
 (www.abraxasapps.com).  TrapWire is one of the most innovative tools
 developed since 9-11 to help mitigate terrorist threats.   From a
 protective intelligence perspective, TrapWire does have the ability to
 share information on suspicious events or suspects between cities.
 Operationally, the ability to identify hostile surveillance at one
 target set -- in multiple cities -- can be used to neutralize terror
 threats by interrupting the attack cycle.   Meaning, a suspect
 conducting surveillance of the NYC subway can also be spotted by
 TrapWire conducting similar activity at the DC subway, connecting the
 infamous dots.  An additional benefit of TrapWire is that the system can
 also be used to help "walk back the cat" after an attack to identify
 terrorist suspects and modus operandi.    I can also see the tool being
 very effective in identifying general street crime. 



   --
   Aaron C. Pigeon

   STRATFOR
   Public Relations

   www.stratfor.com
   facebook.com/stratfor
   twitter.com/stratfor
</description>
    <date>2010-09-22 23:24:27</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/370144_re-more-for-the-blog-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>aaron.pigeon@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>370159</id>
    <title>Re: TrapWire (TW)
</title>
    <description>SSB3aWxsIE9NRyANCg0KU2VudCB2aWEgQmxhY2tCZXJyeSBieSBBVCZUDQoN
[encoded data, 4500 characters]
YSBCbGFja0JlcnJ5IGJ5IEFUJlQ=
</description>
    <date>2010-09-23 01:46:11</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/370159_re-trapwire-tw-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>370352</id>
    <title>Re: Julian Assange arrest
</title>
    <description>   Revenge is a dish best served cold.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "William \"Bill\" O'Chee" &lt;william@himalayaconsulting.biz&gt;
   Date: Tue, 7 Dec 2010 21:57:49 +1000
   To: &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Julian Assange arrest
   Sadly he didn't have a car accident on the way there.
   William Oa**Chee
   aa**aa"*aa&gt;&gt;* 
   Partner
   Himalaya Consulting
   Australia:      +61 422 688886
   China mob:  +86 1365 1001069
   On 07/12/2010, at 9:52 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     Thx

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "William \"Bill\" O'Chee" &lt;william@himalayaconsulting.biz&gt;
     Date: Tue, 7 Dec 2010 21:23:40 +1000
     To: &lt;fred.burton@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Julian Assange arrest
     Dear Fred,
     In Jen's absence, I thought I should send you this:
     http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/technology/technology-news/wikileaks-founder-arrested-in-london-20101207-18ogq.html
     Hooray!
     Best regards,
     William Oa**Chee
     aa**aa"*aa&gt;&gt;* 
     Partner
     Himalaya Consulting
     Australia:      +61 422 688886
     China mob:  +86 1365 1001069
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 13:27:46</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/370352_re-julian-assange-arrest-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>william@himalayaconsulting.biz</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>370369</id>
    <title>Re: Meeting with the CISEN Bureau Chief
</title>
    <description>   Hey Fred, Dave,

    

   No worries about the mix-up. Fernando freaked out at first, but then he
   met with Dave and all was good. Like I said, I think he is much more
   comfortable where he is at now.

    

   Tell me what I need to do to make the meeting possible.

   Cheers,

    

   Marko

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "David Danelo" &lt;david.danelo@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, April 2, 2008 2:01:59 PM (GMT-0600) America/Chicago
   Subject: RE: Meeting with the CISEN Bureau Chief

   Hello Marko,
    
   Thanks for the note.  We appreciate your help and are very sorry about the
   commo foul up last week.  Balls were dropped on our end, I'm afraid.  
    
   Dave will be my point man on arranging the meeting w/the CISEN
   Chief.  Unfortunately, although this is the kind of work I actually like
   to do, other requirements prohibit me from getting down in the weeds.   We
   certainly have no problem if you would like to be involved.  Heck, we owe
   you, and view Fernando as your friend.   
    
   Regards, Fred

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, April 02, 2008 12:21 PM
   To: Fred Burton
   Subject: Meeting with the CISEN Bureau Chief
   Hi Fred,

   I've been trying to get Fernando to get us some contacts, something that
   David told me should be a priority now that things are heating up in
   Chihuahua + environs, but also something I've been working on for a while.

   He thought it would be useful if he got us in touch with the Mexican Intel
   Bureau Chief in El Paso (they have one, a new development - I think I
   reported this a few months ago when it happened in one of my reports).
   Fernando says that if you want to go to El Paso and meet with them he can
   arrange a meeting. That would be the CISEN Bureau Chief in El Paso.

   Here is Fernando's contact info: 915-929-9977 (also: fdlm@diplomats.com -
   his personal email) if you want to arrange the details yourself. I would
   love to come along, but only if you actually think that would help and be
   useful. In no way is the meeting contingent on my presence or involvement.

   I am not sure why Fernando has had a change of heart about direct contact,
   he says it is because he is more comfortable in his job. Issue of "going
   above his pay grade" has been resolved, I think probably because he has
   realized that people above him are somewhat clueless. Personally, I think
   the fact that so much stuff is going on is another reason, he probably
   wants to have some influence over what we publish in the Security Memo,
   but that is just my personal assessment. He is a tricky bastard who thinks
   like that, even though the rest of his Foreign Service does not.

   You can call me (512-905-3091) if you need anything. I am still on my
   "leave of absence" from Stratfor as I am finishing up some work for
   various profs at UT.

   Cheers,

   Marko
</description>
    <date>2008-04-02 23:51:04</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-09 05:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/370369_re-meeting-with-the-cisen-bureau-chief-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>david.danelo@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>370901</id>
    <title>Fw: Megrahi
</title>
    <description>   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: fduggan@comcast.net
   Date: Sat, 4 Dec 2010 23:19:05 +0000 (UTC)
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: scott stewart&lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;; Mike
   Parks&lt;longbow99@earthlink.net&gt;
   Subject: Re: Megrahi
   I have seen some press/internet stuff that he is living in a "luxury
   villa" with two luxury cars in the driveway. I dont know what classifies
   as luxury in Libya but he did have several million dollars in his bank
   account and the family had always been well taken care of according to
   reports.
   As to BP, I  can send you some stuff. BP admitted they lobbied the British
   Govt, "without naming Megrahe", urging the Brits to get the Prisoner
   Transfer negotiaitons moving since it was holding up the old contract they
   had signed with Libya. There  was only one Libyan in a Scottish jail so 
   they did have to name him. Also, the Scottish govt was lobbied by a Libyan
   business group  and BP was part of that group. Foreign Secretary Jack
   Straw  admitted the pressure from BP. It all goes back to what is  now
   called "the deal in  the desert" in 2007 between Tony Blair and the
   Libyans to sign a Prisoner Transfer  Agreement, and the same day the 
   Libyans finally  agreed to an oil contract with BP. They the Libyans
   diddled the oil company for a couple of years, telling them nothing was
   going  to happen until Megrahi was back home in  Libya. The Scots were not
   a part of the Prisoner Transfer  Agreement  and  resented it, but they got
   cute and  released the murderer on "compassionate  release" instead of the
   Prisoner Transfer Agreement. The Minister for Justice, Kenny MacAskill, is
   the one that did this (obviously not by himself) and thought he could make
   this case without actually producing any real evidence that Megrahi was
   dying. It all blew up in his  face since the little bastard Megrahi is
   still alive after being released in August 2009.
   Frank
   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: fduggan@comcast.net
   Cc: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;, "Mike Parks"
   &lt;longbow99@earthlink.net&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, December 4, 2010 9:03:33 AM
   Subject: Re: Fwd: Megrahi Family to Sue Over False Imprisonment

   Frank -

   Do we know what the suspect is doing in Libya or where he is living?

   Do you guys have any contacts or sources that could locate him?

   My mind is turning on how we can possibly get to him or write about it.

   Also, did you guys find any smoking guns w/his release linked to British
   oil deals w/Libya?

   Thanks,  Fred

   fduggan@comcast.net wrote:
   &gt;
   &gt; ----- Forwarded Message -----
   &gt; From: fduggan@comcast.net
   &gt; To: "eileen walsh" &lt;EileenWals@aol.com&gt;, "brian flynn"
   &gt; &lt;BrianF@schlossbergflynn.com&gt;, "Melanie Daniels"
   &gt; &lt;jerzybird@gmail.com&gt;, "Kristie Smith" &lt;kristiesmith56@hotmail.com&gt;,
   &gt; "wendy morton" &lt;wsmphx@hotmail.com&gt;, "glenn and carole johnson"
   &gt; &lt;Johnsonvpaf103@comcast.net&gt;, "Jack Schultz" &lt;jackschultz@webtv.net&gt;,
   &gt; "george williams" &lt;Geedubblu@aol.com&gt;, "judy o'rourke"
   &gt; &lt;jlorourk@syr.edu&gt;, joandater@yahoo.com, SLS92718@aol.com,
   &gt; theonehiding@gmail.com, marylouciulla@optonline.net,
   &gt; kathyted715@gmail.com, mstratis@optonline.net
   &gt; Sent: Friday, December 3, 2010 7:24:46 PM
   &gt; Subject: Re: Megrahi Family to Sue Over False Imprisonment
   &gt;
   &gt; This the same thing that his son arranged at Georgetown University - a
   &gt; video interview which is part of an expensive public relations
   &gt; initiative to show Gadhafi as a responsible leader. This one was at
   &gt; the London School of Economics, and as usual, it is a PR disaster when
   &gt; he shows himself to be a nutcase. The Scottish government is handling
   &gt; it well by saying that they stand by the conviction of guilt and that
   &gt; he had an unprecedented "prison" arrangement with a kitchen, cable TV,
   &gt; prayer room and whatever else he wanted. The Libyan government paid
   &gt; for it all, as well as a residence nearby for his family.
   &gt; Frank
   &gt;
   &gt;  
   &gt;
   &gt;
   http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/politics/Megrahi39s-family-to-sue-over.6648587.jp?articlepage=2
   &gt;
   &gt;  
   &gt;
   &gt; */
   &gt; /**//**//*
   &gt;
   &gt;  
   &gt;
   &gt;  
   &gt;
</description>
    <date>2010-12-05 01:16:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-23 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/370901_fw-megrahi-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>371830</id>
    <title>Re: Tirana Sitrep
</title>
    <description>   Can we use without attribution?

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2011 14:49:43 -0500
   To: burton@stratfor.com&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: RE: Tirana Sitrep

   Albanian

    

   From: burton@stratfor.com [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2011 1:49 PM
   To: Michael Maness
   Subject: Re: Tirana Sitrep

    

   Is this a U.S. or an Albanian LE source?

   And if U.S., what is he doing with the opposition groups?

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;

   Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2011 14:29:08 -0500

   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;

   Subject: Tirana Sitrep

    

   Just in from a contact (Former senior law enforcement officer with direct
   access to Opposition party members).

    

   Tirana : 22 Jan 2011 (Situation at 1930 local)

    

   .         Situation today calm, as Govt declared day of mourning for the
   "martyrs" (Berisha's words).

   .         The Opposition has been hold-up all day today in Mayor Edi
   Rama's office discussing next steps. There is some reluctance on their
   part as to whether tomorrow's protest should proceed as planned. They have
   apparently received word that many protesters intend to come armed to
   protect themselves against the police.  Rama has commented privately he
   may lead the protest to try and keep them peaceful.

   .         Despite this, the Opposition continues to insist they will not
   stop actions against the current regime until Berisha resigns. In
   response, Berisha has declared that "anyone touching an official
   government building will meet the same fate as the protestors yesterday."

   .         Rumblings have started in other major cities throughout Albania
   re. sympathetic protests. Most notably Shkoder, Durres and Gjirokaster.

   .         There are reports of a handful of arrests of senior police
   officials following yesterday's incident. Investigation is now underway as
   to who gave the order to fire upon the crowds.

   .         Rumors continue to spread within the population that agents of
   the State Intelligence Service (SHISH) had infiltrated the crowds and
   provoked yesterday's violence. (Comment: No proof of this, but would not
   be the first time SHISH was used in this capacity).

   .         Note: Great deal of fear and apprehension amongst the populace,
   particularly in Tirana. Most still have vivid memories of '90 and '97.
   Average Albanian is still well armed following the ransacking of weapons
   depots in '97 and an escalation in violence is not unthinkable.

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 20:55:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/371830_re-tirana-sitrep-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.maness@trapwire.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>372034</id>
    <title>Re: Balkans
</title>
    <description>   Well, a mix of ways. Paid sources in places like MX and Lebanon with
   analysts scattered in various cities. If Albania continues swirling, we
   can look at some sort of money but have zero budgeted at this time. We
   also have a huge network of investigative journalists in places like Iran.
   Surprisingly, folks talk to us due to our academic model.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 27 Jan 2011 13:03:42 -0500
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Balkans

   Just out of curiosity: how do you (STRATFOR) work with and maintain
   reporting sources? My contact's well-connected to LE, intel and govt in
   both Albania and Kosovo. I'm always looking to throw a little work his way
   -- particularly this kind of stuff that's not having him hang his ass too
   far out in the wind.

    
</description>
    <date>2011-01-27 20:47:30</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/372034_re-balkans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.maness@trapwire.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>372796</id>
    <title>Re: Tirana Sitrep
</title>
    <description>   Good stuff, keep it coming

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2011 14:29:08 -0500
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Tirana Sitrep

   Just in from a contact (Former senior law enforcement officer with direct
   access to Opposition party members).

    

   Tirana : 22 Jan 2011 (Situation at 1930 local)

    

   .         Situation today calm, as Govt declared day of mourning for the
   "martyrs" (Berisha's words).

   .         The Opposition has been hold-up all day today in Mayor Edi
   Rama's office discussing next steps. There is some reluctance on their
   part as to whether tomorrow's protest should proceed as planned. They have
   apparently received word that many protesters intend to come armed to
   protect themselves against the police.  Rama has commented privately he
   may lead the protest to try and keep them peaceful.

   .         Despite this, the Opposition continues to insist they will not
   stop actions against the current regime until Berisha resigns. In
   response, Berisha has declared that "anyone touching an official
   government building will meet the same fate as the protestors yesterday."

   .         Rumblings have started in other major cities throughout Albania
   re. sympathetic protests. Most notably Shkoder, Durres and Gjirokaster.

   .         There are reports of a handful of arrests of senior police
   officials following yesterday's incident. Investigation is now underway as
   to who gave the order to fire upon the crowds.

   .         Rumors continue to spread within the population that agents of
   the State Intelligence Service (SHISH) had infiltrated the crowds and
   provoked yesterday's violence. (Comment: No proof of this, but would not
   be the first time SHISH was used in this capacity).

   .         Note: Great deal of fear and apprehension amongst the populace,
   particularly in Tirana. Most still have vivid memories of '90 and '97.
   Average Albanian is still well armed following the ransacking of weapons
   depots in '97 and an escalation in violence is not unthinkable.

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 20:36:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/372796_re-tirana-sitrep-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.maness@trapwire.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>373613</id>
    <title>Re: Athens:  COS Welch Killing
</title>
    <description>   Fred,
    
   I remember very little about the Welch case.  I believe 17 November was
   responsible and it wouldn't be surprised if an FSN didn't collaborate,
   which led to his assassination.  I just can't remember!   After returning
   from my tour in Israel, I was assigned to OSO as a senior Inspector. 
   Greece was a critical threat for terrorism Post and one of the posts we
   inspected because of 17 November (Marxist-Leninist) terrorists attacks and
   the Greek Government's inability to stop them.  As I remember, many
   believed the government was infiltrated by 17 November members and as you
   are well aware, the Greeks kept a close eye on U.S. Diplomats to identify
   intelligence officers; FSN's would have no problem knowing who was or who
   was not an intelligence officer.  Unfortunately, Welch would have been
   easily identified and targeted not only by the Greek Government, but 17
   November.
    
   Steve
    
   In a message dated 4/17/2011 1:34:11 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
   burton@stratfor.com writes:

     Steve:

     I've heard from a pretty good Agency source that Welch was set up by an
     Embassy FSN. 

     Have you ever heard that?

     Thanks much, Fred

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2011-04-18 02:33:29</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-03 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/373613_re-athens-cos-welch-killing-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>SRG47@aol.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>373660</id>
    <title>Re: Bruno
</title>
    <description>   maybe your israeli source can tell you that? but it's a nice start for an
   investigative novel.
   too bad Genoud isn't arround anymore, he would have known for sure
   On 16.06.2011, at 16:12, Fred Burton wrote:

     Who last saw Bruno and when?  Where was he located? 

     On 6/16/2011 9:03 AM, Nadav Schirman wrote:

       i'd love to find him and talk to him, wouldn't you?
       On 16.06.2011, at 16:00, Fred Burton wrote:

         More from the same source:

         With Carlos protected in jail, the Israelis were asked by their
         allies to go after Carlos* right hand, Bruno Breguet. The Israelis
         knew Bruno very well since  1970 when he was arrested in Israel by
         Mossad as a member of the *People*s Front* for carrying illegal
         explosives. He was then convicted to 15 years in prison but was
         released before the term agreeing to collaborate with the Israelis.
         He disappeared in November 95 when he sailed from Switzerland to
         Italy.

          

         On 6/16/2011 8:56 AM, Nadav Schirman wrote:

 very interesting. but why would the israelis be interested in him, they were not interested in carlos at all.


 On 16.06.2011, at 15:52, Fred Burton wrote:


 From a Israeli intelligence contact:

 Bruno was picked up by an Israeli navy commando and brought to a
 friendly port in the Medditeranean. There he was picked up by a team
 with two white vans to an unknown destination. The agents were
 americans. There were rummors that he was taken to a CIA secret site and
 he died during the interogation. I personally  believe that he is living
 under a new identity somewhere in South America.
</description>
    <date>2011-06-16 16:15:04</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-12 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/373660_re-bruno-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>nadav.schirman@me.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>373667</id>
    <title>Re: Research Question
</title>
    <description>   Carlos was captured in August 1994.  Bruget disappears in November 1995.   
   I do not  believe the intell on Carlos came from Bruget.  It came from the 
   Sudanese who wanted to regain our favor after we put them on our           
   state-sponsored list.  I do not see our hands in the Bruget disappearance  
   - not really our style.  Not French, Swiss ( he was a                      
   Swiss citizen), or German syles either.  Israelis would have no reason to  
   go after him - Carlos yes, but not Bruget.  No, I think either one of the  
   Palestinian terrorist groups or an Arab intell service did this.  Of       
   course, Bruget could have planned this disappearance.  Maybe he is in a    
   small dacha in Argentina (sic)?  No Fred, I think this is an Arab hit but  
   we will never be sure.                                                     
                                                                              
   May I ask why you are interested in this case?  Book subject?  Heard you   
   wrote one on the 1970s murder of the Israeli air attache in Maryland - a   
   BSO hit.                                                                   
                                                                              
   Regards                                                                    
                                                                              
                                                                              
   --- On Mon, 4/25/11, Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:              
                                                                              
     From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;                                  
     Subject: Re: Research Question                                           
     To: "Dennis Pluchinsky" &lt;dpluchinsky@rocketmail.com&gt;                     
     Date: Monday, April 25, 2011, 9:34 AM                                    
                                                                              
     Hummm....I seem to recall us tipping off the Frogs to Carlos'            
     whereabouts in The Sudan.  Is it feasible we flipped Bruget and he was   
     used to locate Carlos?                                                   
                                                                              
     On 4/25/2011 11:32 AM, Dennis Pluchinsky wrote:                          
                                                                              
       Bruget and Koop were arrested in early 1980s, not 1990s.               
                                                                              
       All open source info states he disappeared on November 12, 1995.       
       Either kidnapped and killed by an intelligence agency or               
       Palestinians.  Simply put, a mystery.  How important is this to you?   
       I could use a chit and contact a former RAF analyst at the BfV who is  
       now retired and ask him.  Personally, I think Bruget was killed by     
       either Syrian, or Iraqi intelligence services because of his knowledge 
       of Carlos' work for these states.  You must know that Carlos published 
       his bio in 2004 and in 2009 sent President Obama a letter asking for   
       help in finding Bruget - all open source.  Proof on who kidnapped /    
       killed Bruget will be hard to come by - but a lot speculations.  As    
       you know, there are many mysteries in this field that will never be    
       solved.                                                                
                                                                              
       --- On Mon, 4/25/11, Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:          
                                                                              
         From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;                              
         Subject: Re: Research Question                                       
         To: "Dennis Pluchinsky" &lt;dpluchinsky@rocketmail.com&gt;                 
         Date: Monday, April 25, 2011, 9:10 AM                                
                                                                              
         What happened to him?  Was he rendered?                              
                                                                              
         On 4/25/2011 11:09 AM, Dennis Pluchinsky wrote:                      
                                                                              
           Yes, he was arrested in Paris in the 1990s along with Carlos's     
           girlfriend Magadelan Koop.  Carlos carried out several attacks on  
           French targets and even sent a threat letter to the French         
           Minister of interior.  French held fast.  Both were eventually     
           released.  Koop in Venezuela and Bruguet disappeared ....          
                                                                              
           --- On Mon, 4/25/11, Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:      
                                                                              
             From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;                          
             Subject: Research Question                                       
             To: dpluchinsky@rocketmail.com                                   
             Date: Monday, April 25, 2011, 9:00 AM                            
                                                                              
             Hello Dennis,                                                    
                                                                              
             Do you recall a terrorist by the name of Bruno Breguet, who      
             disappeared                                                      
             in 1995 on a ferry from Italy to Greece?                         
                                                                              
             He was linked to Carlos.                                         
                                                                              
             Thanks much, Fred                                                
</description>
    <date>2011-04-25 18:44:22</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-05 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/373667_re-research-question-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>dpluchinsky@rocketmail.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>373680</id>
    <title>Re: Bruno Breguet
</title>
    <description>   In a message dated 4/25/2011 11:21:54 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
   burton@stratfor.com writes:

     http://www.heraldscotland.com/carlos-the-jackal-asks-obama-for-help-in-tracking-down-disappeared-terrorist-1.829024

   Fred,
    
   I remember him and I never heard the CIA had taken him.  Back in 1995 they
   didn't do that.  The Agency didn't even snatch Carlos back then.  He was
   running around so publicly that anyone could have taken him if they
   wanted.  With all the information he had in his head, I'd be surprised if
   his former associates would let him leave the life that easily.  Nov 17
   was such a secret organization that if he knew any of them and thought
   about going straight (and possibly talking), they would have killed him. 
   Nobody really ever talked about Nov 17, so killing him would have been a
   good example to anyone who was contemplating it.
    
   The French incident where they tried to blow up the power plant was the
   one the Amcit was involved in.  I thought he did some time in France
   before moving on to Greece, as did Kopp and Bruguet. 
    
   Scott
</description>
    <date>2011-04-26 14:37:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-03 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/373680_re-bruno-breguet-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Trippsb@aol.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>373798</id>
    <title>Re: Athens and Welch killing
</title>
    <description>   In a message dated 4/23/2011 12:28:27 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
   burton@stratfor.com writes:

     Scott - Was Carlos linked to Nov 17?   Thanks

     On 4/23/2011 11:10 AM, Trippsb@aol.com wrote:

       He may have been stationed there, but there was a Nov 17 task force
       that operated for years running down every lead (and I mean every, I
       located one of the nephews of an American associate of Carlos, who had
       close ties to Nov 17 so they could pitch him, another thing that never
       made it into my EERs).  It included natives, native speakers, former
       case officers stationed there...some very good people, among the best
       I worked with.  I'm sure they would have run that lead to ground.  My
       first case out there was trashing one of their sources who they cut
       off right away.  I knew a lot of what they were doing, especially when
       it came to embassy employees because I could access their files
       without anyone getting upset at the Agency looking at FSNs or
       employees.  Some of the DO officers can never admit they were wrong. 
       It goes to the narcissism that makes them good at what they do.
        
       Sorry we missed you in DC.  I got a really crappy cold and breathing
       all over everyone and hacking on them would have made me wildly
       popular.
        
       Scott
        
       In a message dated 4/23/2011 9:47:40 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
       burton@stratfor.com writes:

         The source claims he was stationed in Athens w/the DO and the COS
         dismissed the allegation w/out further investigation. 

         On 4/22/2011 8:22 PM, Trippsb@aol.com wrote:

           In a message dated 4/17/2011 1:32:56 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
           burton@stratfor.com writes:

             Scott,

             I've heard from a pretty good Agency source that Welch was set
             up by an Embassy FSN. 

             Have you ever heard that?

             Thanks much, Fred

             Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

           Fred,
            
           No, and I worked with the task force chasing them.  It was a sub
           group under Mike Freeman...
            
           Scott

   Fred,
    
   I don't remember any direct links.  There were people who were Carlos
   associates who lived or to Greece, that kind of thing.  The fellow
   travelers of terrorism.  The theory was that they all knew each other so
   maybe you could follow the daisy chain, like drug cases, one would give
   you another higher up.  One was an American who was a Carlos associate in
   France (?) who blew up a communication tower if I remember correctly. 
   Either he or his wife (she wasn't a US cit) were the ones of interest.  I
   found a relative here, who I passed off to the N17 people, who they were
   going to use to contact him.  I did several of those (N17, Sikhs) and once
   they were comfortable with me, I'd pass them off to the "pros".  The guy
   was also traveling to the US for the first big World Bank radical pissing
   match, but I was never able to find him in the huge gaggle and they didn't
   want him picked off at port of entry by INS, not to mention they weren't
   sure INS would really find him when he entered, nor were they very
   enamored that INS would be able to do it gently, vice hammering the guy.
    
   I don't remember the guy's name, but i would recognize it again if someone
   ran it by me. 
    
   Scott
</description>
    <date>2011-04-23 22:02:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-03 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/373798_re-athens-and-welch-killing-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Trippsb@aol.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>373807</id>
    <title>Re: Research Question
</title>
    <description>   Bruget and Koop were arrested in early 1980s, not 1990s.                   
                                                                              
   All open source info states he disappeared on November 12, 1995.  Either   
   kidnapped and killed by an intelligence agency or Palestinians.  Simply    
   put, a mystery.  How important is this to you?  I could use a chit and     
   contact a former RAF analyst at the BfV who is now retired and ask         
   him.  Personally, I think Bruget was killed by either Syrian, or Iraqi     
   intelligence services because of his knowledge of Carlos' work for these   
   states.  You must know that Carlos published his bio in 2004 and in 2009   
   sent President Obama a letter asking for help in finding Bruget - all open 
   source.  Proof on who kidnapped / killed Bruget will be hard to come by -  
   but a lot speculations.  As you know, there are many mysteries in this     
   field that will never be solved.                                           
                                                                              
   --- On Mon, 4/25/11, Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:              
                                                                              
     From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;                                  
     Subject: Re: Research Question                                           
     To: "Dennis Pluchinsky" &lt;dpluchinsky@rocketmail.com&gt;                     
     Date: Monday, April 25, 2011, 9:10 AM                                    
                                                                              
     What happened to him?  Was he rendered?                                  
                                                                              
     On 4/25/2011 11:09 AM, Dennis Pluchinsky wrote:                          
                                                                              
       Yes, he was arrested in Paris in the 1990s along with Carlos's         
       girlfriend Magadelan Koop.  Carlos carried out several attacks on      
       French targets and even sent a threat letter to the French Minister of 
       interior.  French held fast.  Both were eventually released.  Koop in  
       Venezuela and Bruguet disappeared ....                                 
                                                                              
       --- On Mon, 4/25/11, Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:          
                                                                              
         From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;                              
         Subject: Research Question                                           
         To: dpluchinsky@rocketmail.com                                       
         Date: Monday, April 25, 2011, 9:00 AM                                
                                                                              
         Hello Dennis,                                                        
                                                                              
         Do you recall a terrorist by the name of Bruno Breguet, who          
         disappeared                                                          
         in 1995 on a ferry from Italy to Greece?                             
                                                                              
         He was linked to Carlos.                                             
                                                                              
         Thanks much, Fred                                                    
</description>
    <date>2011-04-25 18:32:14</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-05 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/373807_re-research-question-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>dpluchinsky@rocketmail.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>373860</id>
    <title>Re: Bruno
</title>
    <description>   i think so
   On 16.06.2011, at 17:20, Fred Burton wrote:

     Is the General still alive? 

     On 6/16/2011 10:02 AM, Nadav Schirman wrote:

       why did they want to protect him?
       don't forget the french had a vendetta. the DST used their best
       hunter,  General Rondot, to hunt him. Catching him was a political
       joker for interior minister of the time as Carlos has seeded terror
       across france when M was in prison. 
       if you can talk to Rondot that will be a big thing as well.
       On 16.06.2011, at 16:18, Fred Burton wrote:

         More --

         On Carlos: There are few reasons why the Israeli*s never targeted
         Carlos the Jackal. One of the reasons is that he was never a threat
         to the Israeli national security or the *head* of any anti-Israelis
         mission that he was accounted for. Many operations were blamed on
         him because people didn't now who had committed them. Carlos was
         addicted to alcohol and was drunk most of the day, hanging out and
         not hiding from anyone. Mossad considered him a non-threat and
         dismissed him as not worthy of their attention even though they knew
         where he was living.

         His locations were under surveillance and known at all times by the
         French, Germans, Americans, Israelis and other Easter European
         countries. Most of his *career* he was an *insider* for vary intel
         agencies. As you well know he became an official spy for the Eastern
         Germany regime in 1979. Since he was just a gangster, had no
         religion, and fighting for the Palestinian cause was a good cover
         for him, he sold the information he collected on Arab countries also
         to Western intel agencies for good money.

         The reason the French and the Americans decided to arrest him in 94
         is to protect him. A coalition of Arab intel agencies led by the
         Iraqis were on their way to assassin him on his way from Syria to
         Czechoslovakia where he planned to go to retrieve funds. The plan
         was to attack him in Budapest were he owned few safe homes.

          

         On 6/16/2011 9:03 AM, Nadav Schirman wrote:

           i'd love to find him and talk to him, wouldn't you?
           On 16.06.2011, at 16:00, Fred Burton wrote:

             More from the same source:

             With Carlos protected in jail, the Israelis were asked by their
             allies to go after Carlos* right hand, Bruno Breguet. The
             Israelis knew Bruno very well since  1970 when he was arrested
             in Israel by Mossad as a member of the *People*s Front* for
             carrying illegal explosives. He was then convicted to 15 years
             in prison but was released before the term agreeing to
             collaborate with the Israelis. He disappeared in November 95
             when he sailed from Switzerland to Italy.

              

             On 6/16/2011 8:56 AM, Nadav Schirman wrote:

 very interesting. but why would the israelis be interested in him, they were not interested in carlos at all.


 On 16.06.2011, at 15:52, Fred Burton wrote:


 From a Israeli intelligence contact:

 Bruno was picked up by an Israeli navy commando and brought to a
 friendly port in the Medditeranean. There he was picked up by a team
 with two white vans to an unknown destination. The agents were
 americans. There were rummors that he was taken to a CIA secret site and
 he died during the interogation. I personally  believe that he is living
 under a new identity somewhere in South America.
</description>
    <date>2011-06-16 17:37:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-05 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/373860_re-bruno-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>nadav.schirman@me.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>373862</id>
    <title>Assange
</title>
    <description>just told SkyNews concerns for US extradition

More and more likely

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2010-12-17 15:32:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/373862_assange-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>373982</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] Untangling the Bizarre CIA Links to the Ground Zero Mosque
</title>
    <description>   The Imam is an operational asset of the FBI.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: ct-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2010 07:22:26 -0500
   To: CT AOR&lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: [CT] Untangling the Bizarre CIA Links to the Ground Zero Mosque
   [very conspiratorial, but interesting]
   Untangling the Bizarre CIA Links to the Ground Zero Mosque
   New York Observer
   By Mark Ames
   September 10, 2010 | 2:36 p.m
   http://www.observer.com/2010/politics/untangling-new-intrigue-behind-ground-zero-mosque

   So far, the debate over the proposed Islamic center near Ground Zero has
   unfolded along predictable lines, with the man at the center of the
   project, Imam Feisal Abdul Rauf, drawing attacks from the right painting
   him as a terrorist sympathizer with ties to Hamas and the Muslim
   Brotherhood.

   But meanwhile, links between the group behind the controversial mosque,
   the CIA and U.S. military establishment have gone unacknowledged.

   For instance, one of the earliest backers of the nonprofit group, the
   Cordoba Initiative, that is spearheading the Ground Zero mosque, is a
   52-year-old Scarsdale, New York, native named R. Leslie Deak. In addition
   to serving on the group's board of advisors since its founding in 2004 by
   Imam Feisal Abdul Rauf, Deak was its principal funder, donating $98,000 to
   the nonprofit between 2006 and 2008. This figure appears to represent
   organization's total operating budget-though, oddly, the group reported
   receipts of just a third of that total during the same time period.

   Deak describes himself as a "Practicing Muslim with background in
   Christianity and Judaism, [with] in-depth personal and business
   experiences in the Middle East, living and working six months per year in
   Egypt." Born into a Christian home, Deak became an Orthodox Jew and
   married a Jewish woman before converting to Islam when he married his
   current wife, Moshira Soliman, with whom he now lives in Rye.

   Leslie Deak's resume also notes his role as "business consultant" for
   Patriot Defense Group, LLC, a private defense contractor with offices in
   Winter Park, Florida, and in Tucson. The only names listed on the firm's
   website are those of its three "strategic advisers." These include retired
   four-star General Bryan "Doug" Brown, commander of the U.S. Special
   Operations Command until 2007, where he headed "all special operations
   forces, both active duty and reserve, leading the Global War On
   Terrorism," and James Pavitt, former deputy director for operations at the
   Central Intelligence Agency, where he "managed the CIA's globally deployed
   personnel and nearly half of its multi-billion dollar budget" and "served
   as head of America's Clandestine Service, the CIA's operational response
   to the attacks of September 11, 2001."

   Besides Pavitt, Brown and a third advisor, banker Alexander Cappello, the
   Patriot Defense Group is so secretive it doesn't even name its management
   team, instead describing its anonymous CEO as a former Special Forces and
   State Department veteran, the group's managing director as a former CIA
   officer experienced in counter-terrorism in hostile environments and the
   group's corporate intelligence head as a "23-year veteran of the U.S.
   Secret Service who worked on the personal security details of former
   Presidents Bush and Clinton."

    

   Leslie Deak and Moshira Soliman/ PanachePrive

    

   Patriot Defense Group's primary business involves leveraging its
   government connections and know-how. The firm is divided into two
   divisions: one that "focuses exclusively on the needs of the U.S. military
   and law enforcement communities as well as the requirements of friendly
   foreign governments," and a corporate division, which "provides business
   intelligence and specialized security services to corporate clients and
   high net-worth family enterprises."

   So, to recap: From 2006 to 2008, R. Leslie Deak worked as a "business
   consultant" to this super-secretive security contractor with ties to the
   CIA and counterterrorism forces, and in those same three years he also
   donated nearly $100,000 in seed money to the foundation now advocating the
   construction of the so-called Ground Zero Mosque.

   Interestingly, during the same three-year period during which the Deak
   Family Foundation was financing the Cordoba Initiative, Deak also donated
   a total of $101,247 to something called the National Defense University
   Foundation. The National Defense University is a network of war and
   strategy colleges and research centers (including the National War
   College) funded by the Pentagon, designed to train specialists in military
   strategy. The organization recently announced a November 5 dinner gala in
   honor of Defense Secretary and former CIA chief Robert Gates. Sponsors
   include Northrup Grumman, Boeing, Lockheed Martin and...the Patriot
   Defense Group.

   Deak also sits on the NDUF's board of directors, the chairman of which is
   Mark Treanor, the former general counsel for Wachovia bank from 1998
   through its collapse in 2008 and a major bundler of campaign donations for
   the McCain-Palin ticket in 2008. Wachovia, now owned by Wells Fargo, was
   recently fined $160 million for laundering "at least $110 million" in
   Mexican drug money between 2003 and 2008, while Treanor was Wachovia's
   general counsel, though the figure is likely higher since Wachovia
   admitted it didn't put any controls on at least $420 billion-that's
   billion-in cash moved through its network of Mexico currency exchanges.

   Which leads to another odd coincidence: Laundering money for drug lords is
   what brought down Deak &amp; Co., the company run by Leslie Deak's father,
   Nicholas Deak, years ago. The elder Deak, a former top intelligence
   commander during World War II for the OSS (the forerunner of the CIA), was
   the founder of Deak-Perera, which became for a time one of the world's
   biggest foreign currency and gold dealers. But in 1984, a Presidential
   Commission on Organized Crime accused the firm of acting as a money
   laundering operation for Columbia drug cartels, who reportedly brought
   sacks of cash containing tens of millions of dollars into Deak's Manhattan
   offices. By the end of 1984, Deak &amp; Co. had declared bankruptcy, and a
   year later, Nicholas Deak was murdered in the company's headquarters at 29
   Broadway by a deranged homeless woman.

   After the firm went bankrupt and Leslie Deak was left on his own, the
   corporation was broken up and sold off in pieces. One company that traces
   its beginnings to the defunct Deak empire is Goldline International, a
   business concern well known to fans of Glenn Beck as well as California
   investigators. Goldline is to Glenn Beck what General Electric was to
   Ronald Reagan: The company sponsors Beck's TV and radio shows as well as
   his touring act, and Beck is its public face. The Los Angeles County
   District Attorney's office, along with the Santa Monica City Attorney's
   office, are currently investigating Goldline for defrauding customers by
   railroading gullible customers into buying their most debased products.

   Speaking of Glenn Beck, it has been reported that Saudi Prince Al-Waleed
   bin Talal, the second-largest shareholder in News Corp., the parent
   company Fox News, which airs Beck's program, is also a major funder of
   Imam Rauf's projects, as Jon Stewart viewers heard all about last week.

   Coincidences happen, of course. (For instance, Pamela Geller, the blogger
   who's become the leading voice denouncing the mosque project was once,
   bizarrely enough, associate publisher of The New York Observer.)

   But add to this array of unexpected connections the work of Imam Rauf on
   behalf of the U.S. government-which includes serving as an FBI
   "consultant" and being recruited as a spokesperson by longtime George W.
   Bush confidante Karen Hughes, who headed up the administration's
   propaganda efforts in the Muslim world-and a compelling picture begins to
   emerge. Bush's favorite Imam, with backing from a funder with connections
   to the CIA, the Pentagon and the currency trading company that now
   sponsors rightwing firebrand Glenn Beck, proposes to build a mosque around
   the corner from the site of the most devastating terrorist attack ever
   visited on America. In the name of "[cultivating] understanding among all
   religions and cultures," he puts forth a project that offends a majority
   of Americans and deals a significant setback to the broader acceptance of
   Muslim-Americans. It's a little like Billy "White Shoes" Johnson claiming
   the only reason he moonwalks after scoring a touchdown is to lower
   tensions on the football field and raise the other team's spirits.

   Whether the Cordoba Initiative ever gets its way with the Ground Zero
   Mosque, it may well have a lasting legacy at odds with its stated
   intention: By damaging the very moderates and progressives who actually
   view New York, and the nation as a whole, as a tolerant melting pot, and
   strengthening the position demagogues on both sides, it will almost
   certainly deal a setback to interfaith relations. It will also help to
   hobble the Democratic party. Which just might have been the point all
   along.

   Either that, or it's merely a coincidence that this controversy has
   erupted now, during crucial mid-term elections. In which case we can all
   go back to what we were doing before-either denouncing the Park51 Mosque
   as an affront to Americans, or championing it as a symbol of our
   fundamental rights-playing our accustomed roles in a drama that seems too
   perfect, somehow, to believe.
   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-09-13 14:38:35</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/373982_re-ct-untangling-the-bizarre-cia-links-to-the-ground-zero.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>374287</id>
    <title>Re: TrapWire (TW)
</title>
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</description>
    <date>2010-09-23 01:44:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/374287_re-trapwire-tw-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>rbaker@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>oconnor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anya.alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bbronder@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>374374</id>
    <title>Fw: Surveillance Case Study
</title>
    <description>Nailed by TrapWire.

------Original Message------
From: Michael Maness
To: Fred Burton {6}
Subject: RE: Surveillance Case Study
Sent: Jan 5, 2011 4:51 PM

Thanks Fred. We cite this event quite often during our UK visits. 
It's actually been one of the major selling points for us.

Happy 2011.   Mike

-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
Sent: Wednesday, January 05, 2011 3:56 PM
To: Michael Maness
Subject: Surveillance Case Study 





Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2011-01-05 23:55:16</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/374374_fw-surveillance-case-study-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>374601</id>
    <title>Barry Hussein
</title>
    <description>Did Barry Hussein provide proof that he is an American Citizen?

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2010-08-23 15:53:42</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-23 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/374601_barry-hussein-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>374861</id>
    <title>Fw: Web query
</title>
    <description>   Any idea?

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@abraxasapps.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2010 19:26:26 -0400
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Web query

   Fred -- Have received couple queries from this guy for marketing
   collateral on TrapWire etc. I usually ignore this loose cannon requests,
   but this guy keeps citing STRATFOR as a contact. Do you know him?

    

   From: Radu Chirculescu [mailto:chircu2k@yahoo.co.uk]
   Sent: Thursday, October 21, 2010 6:16 PM
   To: Michael Maness
   Subject: Re: Your request for information on TrapWire
   Importance: High

    

       Dear Mr. Maness,

          I find very important to build and keep an constant bridge between
   Romania and it's ally, especially regarding security matters by keeping in
   mind the current geopolitics. We will inform you about our NGO's future
   evolution (CRES &amp; CCPB) and if possible we will desire to attend to any
   open and public presentations about your products in the UK and/or United
   States. As soon as all the aspects will be clear I will inform you and
   Stratfor about our current status.

       For thousands years history did not gave us(Romania) too much rest and
   peace and the current global situation proves it once more.        
       Best regards,

       Radu Chirculescu
       Bucharest, ROMANIA

    

   -----Original Message-----

   From: info@abraxasapps.com [mailto:info@abraxasapps.com]

   Sent: Thursday, October 21, 2010 5:52 PM

   To: abraxasapps.com Info Request

   Cc: marketing@abraxasapps.com

   Subject: Web site inquiry

    

   First Name - Radu

   Last Name - Chirculescu

   Title - Mr

   Company - ngo to be developed

   Street Address - Luterana 1 Ap.47

   City - Bucharest

   State - Ilfov

   Zip/Postal Code - 010161

   Country - Romania

   Work Email - chircu2k@yahoo.co.uk

   Phone - 0040721717447

    

   Referred by -

   Stratfor. I will develop the Romanian Center for Ethics and Strategies and
   The Center for Research and Protection against Bioterrorism. The current
   status is legal registering approval. In 2 weeks to be accomplished.
   Therefor we would need info for products to be used and presented in the
   close future. Best regards, Radu Chirculescu.

    

   I am interested in: Corporate Brochure, TrapWire Brochure, TrapWire Demo,
   CFATS Brochure, SAW Brochure, DDER Brochure, Please Contact Me

    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   NOTICE: This email message and all attachments transmitted with it are
   intended solely for the use of the addressees and may contain legally
   privileged, protected or confidential information. If you have received
   this message in error, please notify the sender immediately by email reply
   and please delete this message from your computer and destroy any copies.
</description>
    <date>2010-10-22 01:33:48</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/374861_fw-web-query-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>374960</id>
    <title>Re: Tirana Sitrep
</title>
    <description>   Is this a U.S. or an Albanian LE source?

   And if U.S., what is he doing with the opposition groups?

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2011 14:29:08 -0500
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Tirana Sitrep

   Just in from a contact (Former senior law enforcement officer with direct
   access to Opposition party members).

    

   Tirana : 22 Jan 2011 (Situation at 1930 local)

    

   .         Situation today calm, as Govt declared day of mourning for the
   "martyrs" (Berisha's words).

   .         The Opposition has been hold-up all day today in Mayor Edi
   Rama's office discussing next steps. There is some reluctance on their
   part as to whether tomorrow's protest should proceed as planned. They have
   apparently received word that many protesters intend to come armed to
   protect themselves against the police.  Rama has commented privately he
   may lead the protest to try and keep them peaceful.

   .         Despite this, the Opposition continues to insist they will not
   stop actions against the current regime until Berisha resigns. In
   response, Berisha has declared that "anyone touching an official
   government building will meet the same fate as the protestors yesterday."

   .         Rumblings have started in other major cities throughout Albania
   re. sympathetic protests. Most notably Shkoder, Durres and Gjirokaster.

   .         There are reports of a handful of arrests of senior police
   officials following yesterday's incident. Investigation is now underway as
   to who gave the order to fire upon the crowds.

   .         Rumors continue to spread within the population that agents of
   the State Intelligence Service (SHISH) had infiltrated the crowds and
   provoked yesterday's violence. (Comment: No proof of this, but would not
   be the first time SHISH was used in this capacity).

   .         Note: Great deal of fear and apprehension amongst the populace,
   particularly in Tirana. Most still have vivid memories of '90 and '97.
   Average Albanian is still well armed following the ransacking of weapons
   depots in '97 and an escalation in violence is not unthinkable.

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 20:49:16</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/374960_re-tirana-sitrep-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.maness@trapwire.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>374975</id>
    <title>Re: More Protests Expected in Albania
</title>
    <description>VGhhbmsgeW91DQoNClNlbnQgdmlhIEJsYWNrQmVycnkgYnkgQVQmVA0KDQot
[encoded data, 4620 characters]
dCAyMDExIFNUUkFURk9SLg0KDQoNCg==
</description>
    <date>2011-01-23 00:51:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/374975_re-more-protests-expected-in-albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.maness@trapwire.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>374981</id>
    <title>Re: Tirana update
</title>
    <description>   Have asked

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2011 13:44:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Burton Fred&lt;fred.burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Tirana update
   Is this a U.S. or an Albanian LE source?

   And if U.S., what is he doing with the opposition groups?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: burton@stratfor.com, "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "Tactical" &lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2011 1:40:14 PM
   Subject: Re: Tirana update

   I think this is worth being written up as a piece ahead of tomorrow's
   protests.

   Is it possible to publish this?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: burton@stratfor.com
   To: "Analysts" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;, "Tactical" &lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2011 1:36:04 PM
   Subject: Tirana update

   From TrapWire --

   Just in from a contact (Former senior law enforcement officer with direct
   access to Opposition party members).

    

   Tirana : 22 Jan 2011 (Situation at 1930 local)

    

   a**         Situation today calm, as Govt declared day of mourning for the
   "martyrs" (Berisha's words).

   a**         The Opposition has been hold-up all day today in Mayor Edi
   Rama's office discussing next steps. There is some reluctance on their
   part as to whether tomorrow's protest should proceed as planned. They have
   apparently received word that many protesters intend to come armed to
   protect themselves against the police.  Rama has commented privately he
   may lead the protest to try and keep them peaceful.

   a**         Despite this, the Opposition continues to insist they will not
   stop actions against the current regime until Berisha resigns. In
   response, Berisha has declared that "anyone touching an official
   government building will meet the same fate as the protestors yesterday."

   a**         Rumblings have started in other major cities throughout
   Albania re. sympathetic protests. Most notably Shkoder, Durres and
   Gjirokaster.

   a**         There are reports of a handful of arrests of senior police
   officials following yesterday's incident. Investigation is now underway as
   to who gave the order to fire upon the crowds.

   a**         Rumors continue to spread within the population that agents of
   the State Intelligence Service (SHISH) had infiltrated the crowds and
   provoked yesterday's violence. (Comment: No proof of this, but would not
   be the first time SHISH was used in this capacity).

   a**         Note: Great deal of fear and apprehension amongst the
   populace, particularly in Tirana. Most still have vivid memories of '90
   and '97. Average Albanian is still well armed following the ransacking of
   weapons depots in '97 and an escalation in violence is not unthinkable.

    

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 20:49:30</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/374981_re-tirana-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>375123</id>
    <title>Fw: [CT] Assange-Manning Link Not Key to WikiLeaks Case
</title>
    <description>   Not for Pub --

   We have a sealed indictment on Assange.

   Pls protect

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: ct-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Wed, 26 Jan 2011 08:16:53 -0600
   To: CT AOR&lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: [CT] Assange-Manning Link Not Key to WikiLeaks Case
   January 25, 2011 3:37 PM
   Assange-Manning Link Not Key to WikiLeaks Case

   http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503543_162-20029521-503543.html

   A report that investigators have so far failed to establish a direct link
   between the founder of the document-dumping website WikiLeaks and the Army
   private accused of providing the site with hundreds of thousands of secret
   State Department cables won't derail the military's case as much as it
   might seem.

   The case against Army Pfc. Bradley Manning didn't hinge on investigators
   uncovering a direct link to WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange anyway, CBS
   News National Security Correspondent David Martin reports.

   Special Section: WikiLeaks

   On Monday, NBC News reported that military officials said Manning couldn't
   be directly linked to Assange in allegedly handing off the cables and
   other secret documents that led to last summer's publication of the
   Afghanistan and Iraq war logs.

   But no one ever thought there was direct contact between Assange and
   Manning, Martin reports. Assange meeting or e-mailing Manning would be
   like the director of the Central Intelligence Agency meeting or e-mailing
   a CIA agent. The theory of the case is that Assange orchestrated the leak
   through cut outs deliberately designed to immunize himself from charges of
   espionage.

   In his own e-mails, Manning refers to himself as a source for Assange even
   though he did not give the documents to Assange but allegedly to a third
   person while home on Christmas leave, Martin reports.

   Attorney General Eric Holder has said the Justice Department was
   considering filing espionage charges in the case.

   Meanwhile, Manning continues to be held in a military brig while the Army
   considers prosecuting him. He has been charged with illegally obtaining
   more than 150,000 secret cables and giving more than 50 of them and a
   classified video to an unauthorized person.

   Manning's lawyer told The Associated Press Friday that a mental-health
   investigation to determine if Manning can stand trial will likely begin in
   February.
   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-01-26 15:23:28</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/375123_fw-ct-assange-manning-link-not-key-to-wikileaks-case-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>375139</id>
    <title>Re: Albania Follow Up Questions
</title>
    <description>Thx much!

------Original Message------
From: Michael Maness
To: Fred Burton {6}
Subject: RE: Albania Follow Up Questions
Sent: Jan 26, 2011 5:27 PM

Have sent mssg...he's not answering his phone (past midnight there).
Let you know if I hear anything. M

-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
Sent: Wednesday, January 26, 2011 3:44 PM
To: Michael Maness
Subject: Albania Follow Up Questions 

Mike -

Berisha met with Lajcak today and decided to call off the Sat protest. 
We don't yet have info into how Rama's meeting with Lajcak went. 
Did the EU manage to twist Rama's balls on this one as well? Will he 
also call off the Friday protest?

Thank you.






Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2011-01-27 00:36:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/375139_re-albania-follow-up-questions-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.maness@trapwire.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>375734</id>
    <title>Re: More for the blog
</title>
    <description>   You think we hit the mark for the blog world? I think so.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Aaron C. Pigeon" &lt;aaron.pigeon@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2010 14:35:31 -0500
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: More for the blog
   posted

   http://fredburton.posterous.com/new-surveillance-tool-for-interrupting-terror
   On 9/22/10 1:47 PM, Fred Burton wrote:


 This week, 500 surveillance cameras were activated on the NYC subway
 system to focus on pre-operational terrorist surveillance.  The
 surveillance technology is also operational on high-value targets (HVTs)
 in DC, Las Vegas, Los Angeles and London and is called TrapWire
 (www.abraxasapps.com).  TrapWire is one of the most innovative tools
 developed since 9-11 to help mitigate terrorist threats.   From a
 protective intelligence perspective, TrapWire does have the ability to
 share information on suspicious events or suspects between cities.
 Operationally, the ability to identify hostile surveillance at one
 target set -- in multiple cities -- can be used to neutralize terror
 threats by interrupting the attack cycle.   Meaning, a suspect
 conducting surveillance of the NYC subway can also be spotted by
 TrapWire conducting similar activity at the DC subway, connecting the
 infamous dots.  An additional benefit of TrapWire is that the system can
 also be used to help "walk back the cat" after an attack to identify
 terrorist suspects and modus operandi.    I can also see the tool being
 very effective in identifying general street crime. 



   --
   Aaron C. Pigeon

   STRATFOR
   Public Relations

   www.stratfor.com
   facebook.com/stratfor
   twitter.com/stratfor
</description>
    <date>2010-09-22 23:11:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/375734_re-more-for-the-blog-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>aaron.pigeon@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>375919</id>
    <title>On Carlos the Jackal &amp; Wadi Haddad
</title>
    <description>   Hello Fred,

    

   The information I have is based on a mix of public and classified
   information that I was exposed to during my service in Israel and Europe
   and, since I*m not sure what information is still classified, please do
   not mention my name as a source if you decide to use the information
   bellow.

   As you know, the Eastern European communist block of countries, in
   addition to Arab countries, were safe havens for both Carlos and Wadi.
   Ceausescu and his regime in Romania together with ex-Yugoslavia, East
   Germany and Hungary were all protecting the Palestinian organizations and
   Carlos.

   Part of the information I have was also obtained from General Pacepa, who
   was Ceausescu*s chief of foreign intelligence service and also from German
   archives.

    

   On Wadi Haddad: contrary to Aharon Klein and other publications on *behalf
   of* Mossad officers, the killing of Haddad by Mossad with poisoned
   chocolate is just a nice fiction story. Haddad was indeed on the Mossad
   assassination list and a *Red Page* order was given on his name along with
   other names such as Kamal Adwan, Hussein Abad Al-Chir, Mohammed Boudia,
   Abu Daud and others.

    

   However, he died from Leukemia that he suffered for a long time. The
   version of Mossad*s assassination played good for all the parties,
   presenting Wadi as a hero and Mossad as an assassins organization that the
   terrorists should be afraid of. Wadi*s death also cleared the way for
   Carlos to approach the Middle Eastern leaders and offer his services to
   them.

   Please keep in mind that Wadi was an Orthodox Christian and not a Muslim
   Palestinian. It is really hard to claim that he fought for the Palestinian
   cause. He was recruited by the Russians while still being in Amman, Jordan
   where he ran a clinic together with George Habash. Wadi used the
   Palestinian cause to form a Marxist-Leninist terrorist arm that never
   served the Palestinian cause. He was *removed* from the Mossad*s
   assassination list per the Russians request. The Russians paid the
   Israelis a high price for this request.

   On Carlos: There are few reasons why the Israeli*s never targeted Carlos
   the Jackal. One of the reasons is that he was never a threat to the
   Israeli national security or the *head* of any anti-Israelis mission that
   he was accounted for. Many operations were blamed on him because people
   didn't now who had committed them. Carlos was addicted to alcohol and was
   drunk most of the day, hanging out and not hiding from anyone. Mossad
   considered him a non-threat and dismissed him as not worthy of their
   attention even though they knew where he was living.

   His locations were under surveillance and known at all times by the
   French, Germans, Americans, Israelis and other Easter European countries.
   Most of his *career* he was an *insider* for vary intel agencies. As you
   well know he became an official spy for the Eastern Germany regime in
   1979. Since he was just a gangster, had no religion, and fighting for the
   Palestinian cause was a good cover for him, he sold the information he
   collected on Arab countries also to Western intel agencies for good money.

   The reason the French and the Americans decided to arrest him in 94 is to
   protect him. A coalition of Arab intel agencies led by the Iraqis were on
   their way to assassin him on his way from Syria to Czechoslovakia where he
   planned to go to retrieve funds. The plan was to attack him in Budapest
   were he owned few safe homes.

    

   With Carlos protected in jail, the Israelis were asked by their allies to
   go after Carlos* right hand, Bruno Breguet. The Israelis knew Bruno very
   well since  1970 when he was arrested in Israel by Mossad as a member of
   the *People*s Front* for carrying illegal explosives. He was then
   convicted to 15 years in prison but was released before the term agreeing
   to collaborate with the Israelis. He disappeared in November 95 when he
   sailed from Switzerland to Italy.

    

   Please feel free to contact me for any other additional information you
   consider valuable.

    

   I*ll send you shortly information on encryption software.

    

   Best regards,

   David

   On Mon, Jun 13, 2011 at 11:31 AM, Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

     Hello David,

     Sorry for the delay in response, I'm to the point where I can no longer
     keep up w/the volume of email and phone calls I receive. 

     My research question centers on Wadi Haddad, formerly of the PFLP.  I've
     seen reports in various books that he was poisoned by means of
     chocolates by the MOSSAD.    Is that true?   Secondly, why didn't the
     MOSSAD target Carlos the Jackal for elimination? 

     Thank you,
     Fred
      

     On 6/10/2011 10:46 AM, David Dafinoiu wrote:

       Fred, I trust all is well.

        

       I finally took a brake to follow up with you on few topics that we
       discussed during our meeting.

        

       We agreed that you will send me information on the research that you
       would like me to help you with for your new book.

        

       Also, I attached here the contact information for the decision maker
       on partnerships with vendors at the Joint Task Force North: LTC
       Centurion at Ingrid.Centurion@jtfn.northcom.mil, (915) 313-7727.

        

       I spoke with Greg Yavner, the CEO and President of Texas-Israel
       Chamber of Commerce, about you and we would like to offer you to join
       our Homeland Security and Defense committee where my partner Dan
       Cofall is the chairman. The chamber is a great business hub and could
       be a great source of business for Stratfor too.

        

       I*ll also send you more info on our company in the next days. Jay and
       Laurie said hello.

        

       Have a great weekend.

       David

       --
       Cordially,
        
       David Dafinoiu
       President

       NorAm Intelligence
       Mobile: 646-678-2905
       david@dafinoiu.com
       dd@noramintel.com
       http://noramintel.com
        
       
       The information contained in this facsimile or electronic message is
       confidential information intended for the use of the individual or
       entity named above. If the reader of this message is not the intended
       recipient, or an employee or agent responsible for delivering this
       message to the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any
       dissemination, or copying of this communication is strictly
       prohibited. If this message contains non-public personal information
       about any consumer or customer of the sender or intended recipient,
       you are further prohibited under penalty of law from using or
       disclosing the information to any third party by provisions of the
       federal Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act. If you have received this facsimile or
       electronic message in error, please immediately notify us by telephone
       or email and return or destroy the original message to assure that it
       is not read, copied, or distributed by others.

   --
   Cordially,
    
   David Dafinoiu
   President
   NorAm Intelligence
   Mobile: 646-678-2905
   david@dafinoiu.com
   dd@noramintel.com
   http://noramintel.com
    
   
   The information contained in this facsimile or electronic message is
   confidential information intended for the use of the individual or entity
   named above. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient,
   or an employee or agent responsible for delivering this message to the
   intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, or
   copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. If this message
   contains non-public personal information about any consumer or customer of
   the sender or intended recipient, you are further prohibited under penalty
   of law from using or disclosing the information to any third party by
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   this facsimile or electronic message in error, please immediately notify
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</description>
    <date>2011-06-15 20:42:22</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-05 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/375919_on-carlos-the-jackal-and-wadi-haddad-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>david@dafinoiu.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>375925</id>
    <title>Re: On Bruno
</title>
    <description>   Hello Fred,

    

   I called few former colleagues that I worked with in Germany and Eastern
   Europe and also pulled out some private information I have on Bruno. I
   also confirmed few details with public source information.

    

   Bruno*s (code name *Luca*) last known trip started on November 11, 1995,
   with his girlfriend and their daughter Shona, 2 years old, when they
   boarded a ferry in the Greek port of Igoumenitsa on their way to Ancona,
   Italy, which was an approx 15 hours trip.  Arrived at Ancona, where the
   Italian customs were informed about Bruno*s presence on the ferry, and
   being on the Italian intelligence red list as *persona non grata*, he was
   separated from his girlfriend and his daughter, and sent back with the
   ferry to Igoumenitsa.

    

   The Italians were warned of Bruno*s presence on the ferry by the Greek
   police. The Greek secret service waited for him back in Igoumenitsa to
   pick him up. Apparently the Greeks were acting on behalf of French
   authorities now. He was living part of the year in Perdika, a small Greek
   village not far from Igoumenitsa, with the knowledge and the protection of
   the country*s secret service since 1994. After Carlos was arrested, Bruno
   was spending the time between Greece, Italy and Austria. Bruno*s problems
   started when the Greeks and the French found out that he was a double
   agent.

    

   While the Greeks were waiting to pick him up at the port, an Israeli Navy
   commando team accompanied by a war ship and a helicopter, that had a
   mission close to Cyprus, were sent after Bruno to extract him before the
   he gets in the port. He was picked up 17 minutes before the ferry arrived
   in the port of Igoumenitsa.

  After the mysterious disappearing there were rumors that it was a special
  operation supported by NATO naval forces, which is not true. There were few
  individuals in European ports at that time presenting themselves as NATO
  officers, but they were Mossad and US Navy Intel. Mossad officers with
  European citizenship posed as 'NATO officials' in many other previous missions
  around the world, including the Middle East.

   Another version was that Bruno was abducted by the Greek secret service in
   an operation of thugs linked to the case of Carlos and sponsored by Paris.

    

   Another version was that Bruno was hiding in the ferry out of fear* a
   non-sense version since the Greek secret service searched the ferry in the
   port. The rumors about his dead body being in Greece were based on the
   fact that he never contacted his family after the disappearing.

   Back in 1994, four Swiss terrorists were arrested and detained for several
   weeks by the Department General of Switzerland because they were suspected
   of belonging to what Stasi used to call "Separat", the code name for the
   Carlos Group. Their names were passed to the Hungarian secret services by
   Bruno during one of his trips to Austria. The Hungarians passed the names
   to the Swiss.

   The US intelligence community had good relationship with the Hungarians in
   1995, where the Americans had few secret bases. After the delivery of
   Bruno by the Israelis to the Americans (I*m not sure about the agency, but
   it could be the Navy intelligence) in a friendly port, Bruno was taken to
   Hungary. I just learned that Bruno left Budapest, Hungary under a new
   identity at the end of 1997 to South America. The most likely destination
   was Cuba.

   An evidence that he was still alive in 1996 was the fact that his initial
   patron, the Swiss Nazi Francois Genoud, was looking for him too. Francois
   had the information on Bruno*s possible locations from one or more
   ex-Stasi officers with connections in the Hungarian secret service. Genoud
   also had ties to UBL that was looking after Bruno in Arab countries. Much
   of bin Laden group's international activities took place in the Geneva
   offices of Saudi Investment Company, managed by board members that
   included Baudoin Dunant, who represented Francois Genoud when he was on
   trial for participation in international terrorism.

   The CIA and the Israelis tried to take Genoud out in October 1993 when he
   escaped a Mossad assassination attempt at his home in Switzerland. Since
   then he became aware that the Israelis were closing in on him.

   I arrived in Budapest in May 1996, but never heard about Bruno after the
   mission in the Mediterranean. In the next few days I left Budapest to
   Switzerland via Austria and Germany. I*m not sure if Genoud knew about
   Bruno*s location, even if he was well connected in the CIA. I*m not even
   sure that the CIA knew Bruno*s location. I just learned that in June 1997
   he was still in the Hungarian secret service custody.  

    

   However, Genoud died few days later on May 30, 1996 when he just returned
   from a restaurant to his home town on Lake Lausanne. This time he was
   poisoned for real and died immediately. The media reported that his
   friends and relatives accompanied him back to his house, where one of his
   lunch companions prepared him a lethal cocktail per Genoud requests. At
   least this time the Mossad was not accused for the assassination :)

   If it is true that Bruno left to Cuba in 1997 and is still alive, then he
   should be 62 years old today. His daughter, Shona, should be 18 years old.

   I*ll continue investigating the case and keep you informed.

   Best regards,

   David

   On Wed, Jun 15, 2011 at 5:03 PM, Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

     Yes in deed.  Most interested.  I don't think we grabbed him because
     that was on my watch. 
     On 6/15/2011 2:39 PM, David Dafinoiu wrote:

       On the contrary to what many people believe, Mossad is not
       assasinating people that easy. Even the most recent incident in Dubai
       was an accident, they tried to bring the victim to Israel and exchange
       him with the Israeli soldier in Iranian's custody.

       Bruno was picked up by an Israeli navy commando and brought to a
       friendly port in the Medditeranean. There he was picked up by a team
       with two white vans to an unknown destination. The agents were
       americans. There were rummors that he was taken to a CIA secret site
       and he died during the interogation. I personally  believe that he is
       living under a new identity somewhere in South America. I left the
       Navy in 96 and have not heard about him since then. I can try to find
       out more on him if you are interested.

       Best regards, David

       Sent from my NorAm portable Galaxy(c)

       David Dafinoiu
       President

       NorAm Intelligence

       Mobile: 646-678-2905
       david@dafinoiu.com
       dd@noramintel.com
       http://noramintel.com

       On Jun 15, 2011 1:48 PM, "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

   --
   Cordially,
    
   David Dafinoiu
   President
   NorAm Intelligence
   Mobile: 646-678-2905
   david@dafinoiu.com
   dd@noramintel.com
   http://noramintel.com
    
   
   The information contained in this facsimile or electronic message is
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</description>
    <date>2011-06-17 20:06:49</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-05 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/375925_re-on-bruno-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>david@dafinoiu.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>375951</id>
    <title>Re: Question
</title>
    <description>Hi Fred,
I don't believe we're interested! We might be interested in advertising 
in the program.

David Cohen
ThunderCloud Subs
www.thundercloud.com
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/pages/ThunderCloud-Subs/38315210779
512-479-8805


On 7/18/11 9:04 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt; Hello David,
&gt;
&gt; We are putting together our final list of sponsors and wanted to
&gt; double-check w/TCloud to see if there would be interest?   The team and
&gt; booster club would also reciprocate w/team meals.
&gt;
&gt; Thanks!  Fred
&gt;
&gt; On 5/31/2011 8:38 AM, T Cloud wrote:
&gt;&gt; What size is the sign? How much is it?
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; David Cohen
&gt;&gt; ThunderCloud Subs
&gt;&gt; www.thundercloud.com
&gt;&gt; Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/pages/ThunderCloud-Subs/38315210779
&gt;&gt; 512-479-8805
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; On 5/28/11 4:45 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt; Would Thundercloud have any interest in sponsoring a scoreboard sign
&gt;&gt;&gt; for the Westwood High School (NW Austin) Girls Softball field?  Tough
&gt;&gt;&gt; to raise sponsors for the girls when football rules in Texas and the
&gt;&gt;&gt; high school students and families frequent the Thunderclouds near the
&gt;&gt;&gt; school.  The sign would also be visible from the neighborhood streets
&gt;&gt;&gt; and the field is used my many club teams.  Thank you, Fred Burton
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
</description>
    <date>2011-07-20 16:31:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-05 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/375951_re-question-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>T_Cloud@austin.rr.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>376053</id>
    <title>Fw: Pan Am 103
</title>
    <description>   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Ronald Duchin" &lt;Duchin@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Sun, 7 Nov 2010 17:14:39 -0500
   To: &lt;fduggan@comcast.net&gt;
   Cc: 'Fred Burton'&lt;fred.burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: RE: Pan Am 103

   Frank:

    

   Pardon my late response to your email. I have been up to my ears in
   Stratfor briefings this week and this is the first free day that I have
   had. I am glad that you wrote to Fred Burton and Scott Stewart. They are
   both valuable, professional  guys and are part of the STRATFOR hierarchy.

   As I am sure that Chet told you, I am still with STRATFOR creating
   business in the Washington area. Would love to hook up with you and Chet
   for lunch and to share stories.

   -Ron

    

   Ronald A. Duchin

   (Office) 703-407-4297

   (Cell) 703-407-4297

    

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: fduggan@comcast.net [mailto:fduggan@comcast.net]
   Sent: Tuesday, November 02, 2010 10:40 PM
   To: Ronald Duchin
   Subject: Fwd: Pan Am 103

    

   Hey Ron. I just found this article your guys wrote last year. It is great,
   and will be put to good use as I fight with the contrarians.  I saw Chet
   Nagle at a party last night for just a few minutes and we didnt get much
   time to chat. Hope you are well.
   Frank
   ----- Forwarded Message -----
   From: fduggan@comcast.net
   To: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "Mike Parks" &lt;longbow99@earthlink.net&gt;, "scott stewart"
   &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, November 2, 2010 10:26:57 PM
   Subject: Re: Pan Am 103

   Thanks Fred. John Bennan called me last Aug 19th, the day before Megrahi
   was released, to say that he had just spoken to Scottish Justice Minister
   Kenny MacAskill, at the request of President Obama.  We were still not
   sure what MacAskill was going to do, but John Brennan said they were
   assured there would not be any "celebratory activities." That assurance
   was clearly not honored.
   I will add you and Mike Parks to my email list. Thanks for all your
   support.
   All the best,
   Frank Duggan

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;, fduggan@comcast.net
   Cc: "Mike Parks" &lt;longbow99@earthlink.net&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, November 2, 2010 8:42:44 PM
   Subject: RE: Pan Am 103

   Hello Frank,

    

   Horrible event. 

    

   I would be honored to send you a signed copy of my book Ghost, which
   discusses my read (from the DSS end) on the Libyan attack.   Pls also add
   me to the mailing list, if you can. 

    

   Our CT office started and operated the Rewards for Justice Program (am
   copying former agent Mike Parks) and we set the initial $2 million dollar
   reward on the heads of the Libyans responsible.  

    

   Simply shocking to me that we allowed the hand-over to the Libyans.  Have
   you been given any sort of briefing by State or the Agency on what really
   took place?  

    

   How can we help you?  

    

   Best Regards,

    

   Fred

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: scott stewart [mailto:scott.stewart@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Tuesday, November 02, 2010 7:16 PM
   To: fduggan@comcast.net
   Cc: 'Fred Burton'
   Subject: RE: Pan Am 103

   Yes, Gannon is a great guy, as is my colleague Ron Duchin.

    

   I'm cc:ing another of my Stratfor colleagues on this message. His name is
   Fred Burton and he worked the Pan-Am 103 investigation for DS.   It is
   indeed personal for us.

    

   Is there anything we can do to help you and your organization?

   ~s

    

    

   From: fduggan@comcast.net [mailto:fduggan@comcast.net]
   Sent: Tuesday, November 02, 2010 5:48 PM
   To: scott stewart
   Subject: Re: Pan Am 103

    

   Good to hear from you, Scott. That paper on the Lockerbie bombing was
   spectacular and I am embarrassed I never saw it before. I knew a bunch of
   Stratfor guys in years past (Ron Duchin, Buckley Carlson, Blumel (forget
   his first name) and some other guys I helped in your efforts on Bankruptcy
   reform about ten years ago.
   That Pan Am flight was amazing- it is very rare that I dont meet someone
   who knew someone connected to the bombing, and like you, it becomes
   personal. A lot of guys knew Matt Gannon, including John Brennen, now the
   terrorism czar, and it is personal with him too. The Gannon family was
   large, as you know, so I assume your friend is Richard Gannon. He is a
   good guy, very quiet, and shows up every year at the memorial service we
   have at Arlington Cemetery. I will add you to my mailing list and you will
   get more shit than you want, but you can just delete it. Thanks again, and
   let's stay in touch.
   All the best,
   Frank Duggan

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: fduggan@comcast.net
   Sent: Tuesday, November 2, 2010 3:57:25 PM
   Subject: Stratfor Reader Response

   Hello Frank,

    

   Thank you for the very kind words. I lost two colleagues on Pan-Am 103
   (Dan O'Connor and Ron Lariviere) and the brother of a third colleague
   (Matt Gannon) was also killed on that flight.

    

   I'd like to thank you for all the efforts your organization makes to help
   bring those who murdered my colleagues and the rest of the Pan-Am 103
   victims to justice.

    

   Warmest regards,

   Scott Stewart

    

    

   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: [Letters to STRATFOR] RE: Libya: A Hero's Welcome 
      Date: Tue, 2 Nov 2010 14:28:52 -0500 (CDT)              
      From: fduggan@comcast.net                               
        To: letters@stratfor.com                              

    

  sent a message using the contact form at https://www.stratfor.com/contact.

  

 This is the best and clearest explanation of the bombing and the evidence 

 against Libya that I have seen. I have always had great admiration for 

 Stratfor but I must admit, I just found this year old article. It will be 

 very helpful in light of the persistent charges from the Libya shills and 

 Megrahi supporters who try to point the finger away from Libya. Thank you 

 very much.

 Frank Duggan, President

 Victims of Pan Am Flight 103, Inc.

  

  

  

 RE: Libya: A Hero's Welcome

  

 Frank Duggan

 fduggan@comcast.net

 President, Victims of Pan Am Flight 103, Inc

 416 N. St. Asaph Street

  

 Alexandria

 Virginia

 22314

 United States

 703 548 8311

  

   No virus found in this incoming message.
   Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
   Version: 9.0.864 / Virus Database: 271.1.1/3233 - Release Date: 11/02/10
   02:34:00

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   No virus found in this message.
   Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
   Version: 10.0.1153 / Virus Database: 424/3234 - Release Date: 11/02/10
</description>
    <date>2010-11-07 23:17:06</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-20 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/376053_fw-pan-am-103-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>376162</id>
    <title>Abraxas (Trapwire) Contract
</title>
    <description>8</description>
    <date>2011-10-27 19:42:30</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/376162_abraxas-trapwire-contract-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>oconnor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bassetti@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/32/32513_20111027132322238.pdf</path><size>603488</size><md5></md5><sha1>003e63706d3ed501bc6a24dadf7797f92767ab15</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>376652</id>
    <title>Re: Fw: Web query
</title>
    <description>   Meredith ? Thx

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Anya Alfano &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2010 19:42:37 -0400
   To: &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Korena Zucha&lt;korena.zucha@stratfor.com&gt;; Anya
   Alfano&lt;alfano@stratfor.com&gt;; Don Kuykendall {6}&lt;kuykendall@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Fw: Web query
   Is he one of the confederation partners?

   On 10/21/10 7:33 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     Any idea?

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@abraxasapps.com&gt;
     Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2010 19:26:26 -0400
     To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Web query

     Fred -- Have received couple queries from this guy for marketing
     collateral on TrapWire etc. I usually ignore this loose cannon requests,
     but this guy keeps citing STRATFOR as a contact. Do you know him?

      

     From: Radu Chirculescu [mailto:chircu2k@yahoo.co.uk]
     Sent: Thursday, October 21, 2010 6:16 PM
     To: Michael Maness
     Subject: Re: Your request for information on TrapWire
     Importance: High

      

         Dear Mr. Maness,

            I find very important to build and keep an constant bridge
     between Romania and it's ally, especially regarding security matters by
     keeping in mind the current geopolitics. We will inform you about our
     NGO's future evolution (CRES &amp; CCPB) and if possible we will desire to
     attend to any open and public presentations about your products in the
     UK and/or United States. As soon as all the aspects will be clear I will
     inform you and Stratfor about our current status.

         For thousands years history did not gave us(Romania) too much rest
     and peace and the current global situation proves it once more.        
         Best regards,

         Radu Chirculescu
         Bucharest, ROMANIA

      

     -----Original Message-----

     From: info@abraxasapps.com [mailto:info@abraxasapps.com]

     Sent: Thursday, October 21, 2010 5:52 PM

     To: abraxasapps.com Info Request

     Cc: marketing@abraxasapps.com

     Subject: Web site inquiry

      

     First Name - Radu

     Last Name - Chirculescu

     Title - Mr

     Company - ngo to be developed

     Street Address - Luterana 1 Ap.47

     City - Bucharest

     State - Ilfov

     Zip/Postal Code - 010161

     Country - Romania

     Work Email - chircu2k@yahoo.co.uk

     Phone - 0040721717447

      

     Referred by -

     Stratfor. I will develop the Romanian Center for Ethics and Strategies
     and The Center for Research and Protection against Bioterrorism. The
     current status is legal registering approval. In 2 weeks to be
     accomplished. Therefor we would need info for products to be used and
     presented in the close future. Best regards, Radu Chirculescu.

      

     I am interested in: Corporate Brochure, TrapWire Brochure, TrapWire
     Demo, CFATS Brochure, SAW Brochure, DDER Brochure, Please Contact Me

      

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     NOTICE: This email message and all attachments transmitted with it are
     intended solely for the use of the addressees and may contain legally
     privileged, protected or confidential information. If you have received
     this message in error, please notify the sender immediately by email
     reply and please delete this message from your computer and destroy any
     copies.
</description>
    <date>2010-10-22 02:04:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/376652_re-fw-web-query-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anya.alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>376889</id>
    <title>RE: Counterterrorism: Shifting from 'Who' to 'How'
</title>
    <description>   Appreciate the update Fred. Thanks and all the best. Hope the new book is
   working out
   for you. Steve

                                   Very respectfully,

                                     Steve Musgrove

    
   &gt; From: burton@stratfor.com
   &gt; To: burton@stratfor.com
   &gt; Subject: Counterterrorism: Shifting from 'Who' to 'How'
   &gt; Date: Wed, 4 Nov 2009 16:57:03 -0600
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt; COUNTERTERRORISM: SHIFTING FROM 'WHO' TO 'HOW'
   &gt;
   &gt; By Scott Stewart and Fred Burton
   &gt;
   &gt; In the 11th edition of the online magazine Sada al-Malahim (The Echo of
   &gt; Battle), which was released to jihadist Web sites last week, al Qaeda in
   the
   &gt; Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) leader Nasir al-Wahayshi wrote an article that
   &gt; called for jihadists to conduct simple attacks against a variety of
   targets.
   &gt; The targets included "any tyrant, intelligence den, prince" or
   "minister"
   &gt; (referring to the governments in the Muslim world like Egypt, Saudi
   Arabia
   &gt; and Yemen), and "any crusaders whenever you find one of them, like at
   the
   &gt; airports of the crusader Western countries that participate in the wars
   &gt; against Islam, or their living compounds, trains etc.," (an obvious
   &gt; reference to the United States and Europe and Westerners living in
   Muslim
   &gt; countries).
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt; Al-Wahayshi, an ethnic Yemeni who spent time in Afghanistan serving as a
   &gt; lieutenant under Osama bin Laden, noted these simple attacks could be
   &gt; conducted with readily available weapons such as knives, clubs or small
   &gt; improvised explosive devices (IEDs). According to al-Wahayshi, jihadists
   &gt; "don't need to conduct a big effort or spend a lot of money to
   manufacture
   &gt; 10 grams of explosive material" and that they should not "waste a long
   time
   &gt; finding the materials, because you can find all these in your mother's
   &gt; kitchen, or readily at hand or in any city you are in."
   &gt;
   &gt; That al-Wahayshi gave these instructions in an Internet magazine
   distributed
   &gt; via jihadist chat rooms, not in some secret meeting with his operational
   &gt; staff, demonstrates that they are clearly intended to reach grassroots
   &gt; jihadists -- and are not intended as some sort of internal guidance for
   AQAP
   &gt; members. In fact, al-Wahayshi was encouraging grassroots jihadists to
   "do
   &gt; what Abu al-Khair did" referring to AQAP member Abdullah Hassan Taleh
   &gt; al-Asiri, the Saudi suicide bomber who attempted to kill Saudi Deputy
   &gt; Interior Minister Prince Mohammed bin Nayef with a small IED on Aug. 28.
   &gt;
   &gt; The most concerning aspect of al-Wahayshi's statement is that it is
   largely
   &gt; true. Improvised explosive mixtures are in fact relatively easy to make
   from
   &gt; readily available chemicals -- if a person has the proper training --
   and
   &gt; attacks using small IEDs or other readily attainable weapons such as
   knives
   &gt; or clubs (or firearms in the United States) are indeed quite simple to
   &gt; conduct.
   &gt;
   &gt; As STRATFOR has noted for several years now, with al Qaeda's structure
   under
   &gt; continual attack and no regional al Qaeda franchise groups in the
   Western
   &gt; Hemisphere, the most pressing jihadist threat to the U.S. homeland at
   &gt; present stems from grassroots jihadists, not the al Qaeda core. This
   trend
   &gt; has been borne out by the large number of plots and arrests over the
   past
   &gt; several years, to include several so far in 2009. The grassroots have
   &gt; likewise proven to pose a critical threat to Europe (although it is
   &gt; important to note that the threat posed by grassroots operatives is more
   &gt; widespread, but normally involves smaller, less strategic attacks than
   those
   &gt; conducted by the al Qaeda core).
   &gt;
   &gt; From a counterterrorism perspective, the problem posed by grassroots
   &gt; operatives is that unless they somehow self-identify by contacting a
   &gt; government informant or another person who reports them to authorities,
   &gt; attend a militant training camp, or conduct electronic correspondence
   with a
   &gt; person or organization under government scrutiny, they are very
   difficult to
   &gt; detect.
   &gt;
   &gt; The threat posed by grassroots operatives, and the difficulty
   identifying
   &gt; them, highlight the need for counterterrorism programs to adopt a
   proactive,
   &gt; protective intelligence approach to the problem -- an approach that
   focuses
   &gt; on "the how" of militant attacks instead of just "the who."
   &gt;
   &gt; The How
   &gt;
   &gt; In the traditional, reactive approach to counterterrorism, where
   authorities
   &gt; respond to a crime scene after a terrorist attack to find and arrest the
   &gt; militants responsible for the attack, it is customary to focus on the
   who,
   &gt; or on the individual or group behind the attack. Indeed, in this
   approach,
   &gt; the only time much emphasis is placed on the how is either in an effort
   to
   &gt; identify a suspect when an unknown actor carried out the attack, or to
   prove
   &gt; that a particular suspect was responsible for the attack during a trial.
   &gt; Beyond these limited purposes, not much attention is paid to the how.
   &gt;
   &gt; In large part, this focus on the who is a legacy of the fact that for
   many
   &gt; years, the primary philosophy of the U.S. government was to treat
   &gt; counterterrorism as a law-enforcement program, with a focus on
   prosecution
   &gt; rather than on disrupting plots.
   &gt;
   &gt; Certainly, catching and prosecuting those who commit terrorist attacks
   is
   &gt; necessary, but from our perspective, preventing attacks is more
   important,
   &gt; and prevention requires a proactive approach. To pursue such a proactive
   &gt; approach to counterterrorism, the how becomes a critical question. By
   &gt; studying and understanding how attacks are conducted -- i.e., the exact
   &gt; steps and actions required for a successful attack -- authorities can
   &gt; establish systems to proactively identify early indicators that planning
   for
   &gt; an attack is under way. People involved in planning the attack can then
   be
   &gt; focused on, identified, and action can be taken prevent them from
   conducting
   &gt; the attack or attacks they are plotting. This means that focusing on the
   how
   &gt; can lead to previously unidentified suspects, e.g., those who do not
   &gt; self-identify.
   &gt;
   &gt; "How was the attack conducted?" is the primary question addressed by
   &gt; protective intelligence, which is, at its core, a process for
   proactively
   &gt; identifying and assessing potential threats. Focusing on the how, then,
   &gt; requires protective intelligence practitioners to carefully study the
   &gt; tactics, tradecraft and behavior associated with militant actors
   involved in
   &gt; terrorist attacks. This allows them to search for and identify those
   &gt; behaviors before an attack takes place. Many of these behaviors are not
   by
   &gt; themselves criminal in nature; visiting a public building and observing
   &gt; security measures or standing on the street to watch the arrival of a
   VIP at
   &gt; their office are not illegal, but they can be indicators that an attack
   is
   &gt; being plotted. Such legal activities ultimately could be overt actions
   in
   &gt; furtherance of an illegal conspiracy to conduct the attack, but even
   where
   &gt; conspiracy cannot be proved, steps can still be taken to identify
   possible
   &gt; assailants and prevent a potential attack -- or at the very least, to
   &gt; mitigate the risk posed by the people involved.
   &gt;
   &gt; Protective intelligence is based on the fact that successful attacks
   don't
   &gt; just happen out of the blue. Rather, terrorist attacks follow a
   discernable
   &gt; attack cycle. There are critical points during that cycle where a plot
   is
   &gt; most likely to be detected by an outside observer. Some of the points
   during
   &gt; the attack cycle when potential attackers are most vulnerable to
   detection
   &gt; are while surveillance is being conducted and weapons are being
   acquired.
   &gt; However, there are other, less obvious points where people on the
   lookout
   &gt; can spot preparations for an attack.
   &gt;
   &gt; It is true that sometimes individuals do conduct ill-conceived, poorly
   &gt; executed attacks that involve shortcuts in the planning process. But
   this
   &gt; type of spur-of-the-moment attack is usually associated with mentally
   &gt; disturbed individuals and it is extremely rare for a militant actor to
   &gt; conduct a spontaneous terrorist attack without first following the steps
   of
   &gt; the attack cycle.
   &gt;
   &gt; To really understand the how, protective intelligence practitioners
   cannot
   &gt; simply acknowledge that something like surveillance occurs. Rather, they
   &gt; must turn a powerful lens on steps like preoperational surveillance to
   gain
   &gt; an in-depth understanding of them. Dissecting an activity like
   &gt; preoperational surveillance requires not only examining subjects such as
   the
   &gt; demeanor demonstrated by those conducting surveillance prior to an
   attack
   &gt; and the specific methods and cover for action and status used. It also
   &gt; requires identifying particular times where surveillance is most likely
   and
   &gt; certain optimal vantage points (called perches in surveillance jargon)
   from
   &gt; where a surveillant is most likely to operate when seeking to surveil a
   &gt; specific facility or event. This type of complex understanding of
   &gt; surveillance can then be used to help focus human or technological
   &gt; countersurveillance efforts where they can be most effective.
   &gt;
   &gt; Unfortunately, many counterterrorism investigators are so focused on the
   who
   &gt; that they do not focus on collecting this type of granular how
   information.
   &gt; When we have spoken with law enforcement officers responsible for
   &gt; investigating recent grassroots plots, they gave us blank stares in
   response
   &gt; to questions about how the suspects had conducted surveillance on the
   &gt; intended targets. They simply had not paid attention to this type of
   detail
   &gt; -- but this oversight is not really the investigators' fault. No one had
   &gt; ever explained to them why paying attention to, and recording, this type
   of
   &gt; detail was important. Moreover, it takes specific training and a
   practiced
   &gt; eye to observe and record these details without glossing over them. For
   &gt; example, it is quite useful if a protective intelligence officer has
   first
   &gt; conducted a lot of surveillance, because conducting surveillance allows
   one
   &gt; to understand what a surveillant must do and where he must be in order
   to
   &gt; effectively observe surveillance of a specific person or place.
   &gt;
   &gt; Similarly, to truly understand the tradecraft required to build an IED
   and
   &gt; the specific steps a militant needs to complete to do so, it helps to go
   to
   &gt; an IED school where the investigator learns the tradecraft firsthand.
   &gt; Militant actors can and do change over time. New groups, causes and
   &gt; ideologies emerge, and specific militants can be killed, captured or
   retire.
   &gt; But the tactical steps a militant must complete to conduct a successful
   &gt; attack are constant. It doesn't matter if the person planning an attack
   is a
   &gt; radical environmentalist, a grassroots jihadist or a member of the al
   Qaeda
   &gt; core, for while these diverse actors will exhibit different levels of
   &gt; professionalism in regard to terrorist tradecraft, they still must
   follow
   &gt; essentially the same steps, accomplish the same tasks and operate in the
   &gt; same areas. Knowing this allows protective intelligence to guard against
   &gt; different levels of threats.
   &gt;
   &gt; Of course, tactics can be changed and perfected and new tactics can be
   &gt; developed (often in response to changes in security and law enforcement
   &gt; operations). Additionally, new technologies can emerge (like cell phones
   and
   &gt; Google Earth) -- which can alter the way some of these activities are
   &gt; conducted, or reduce the time it takes to complete them. Studying the
   &gt; tradecraft and behaviors needed to execute evolving tactics, however,
   allows
   &gt; protective intelligence practitioners to respond to such changes and
   even
   &gt; alter how they operate in order to more effectively search for potential
   &gt; hostile activity.
   &gt;
   &gt; Technology does not only aid those seeking to conduct attacks. There are
   a
   &gt; variety of new tools, such as Trapwire, a software system designed to
   work
   &gt; with camera systems to help detect patterns of preoperational
   surveillance,
   &gt; that can be focused on critical areas to help cut through the fog of
   noise
   &gt; and activity and draw attention to potential threats. These
   technological
   &gt; tools can help turn the tables on unknown plotters because they are
   designed
   &gt; to focus on the how. They will likely never replace human observation
   and
   &gt; experience, but they can serve as valuable aids to human perception.
   &gt;
   &gt; Of course, protective intelligence does not have to be the sole
   &gt; responsibility of federal authorities specifically charged with
   &gt; counterterrorism. Corporate security managers and private security
   &gt; contractors should also apply these principles to protecting the people
   and
   &gt; facilities in their charge, as should local and state police agencies.
   In a
   &gt; world full of soft targets -- and limited resources to protect those
   targets
   &gt; from attack -- the more eyes looking for such activity the better. Even
   the
   &gt; general public has an important role to play in practicing situational
   &gt; awareness and spotting potential terrorist activity.
   &gt;
   &gt; Keeping it Simple?
   &gt; Al-Wahayshi is right that it is not difficult to construct improvised
   &gt; explosives from a wide range of household chemicals like peroxide and
   &gt; acetone or chlorine and brake fluid. He is also correct that some of
   those
   &gt; explosive mixtures can be concealed in objects ranging from electronic
   items
   &gt; to picture frames, or can be employed in forms ranging from hand
   grenades to
   &gt; suicide vests. Likewise, low-level attacks can also be conducted using
   &gt; knives, clubs and guns.
   &gt;
   &gt; Furthermore, when grassroots jihadists plan and carry out attacks acting
   as
   &gt; lone wolves or in small compartmentalized cells without inadvertently
   &gt; betraying their mission by conspiring with people known to the
   authorities,
   &gt; they are not able to be detected by the who-focused systems, and it
   becomes
   &gt; far more difficult to discover and thwart these plots. This focus on the
   how
   &gt; absolutely does not mean that who-centered programs must be abandoned.
   &gt; Surveillance on known militants, their associates and communications
   should
   &gt; continue, efforts to identify people attending militant training camps
   or
   &gt; fighting in places like Afghanistan or Somalia must be increased, and
   people
   &gt; who conduct terrorist attacks should be identified and prosecuted.
   &gt;
   &gt; However -- and this is an important however -- if an unknown militant is
   &gt; going to conduct even a simple attack against some of the targets
   &gt; al-Wahayshi suggests, such as an airport, train, or specific leader or
   media
   &gt; personality, complexity creeps into the picture, and the planning cycle
   must
   &gt; be followed if an attack is going to be successful. The prospective
   attacker
   &gt; must observe and quantify the target, construct a plan for the attack
   and
   &gt; then execute that plan. The demands of this process will force even an
   &gt; attacker previously unknown to the authorities into a position where he
   is
   &gt; vulnerable to discovery. If the attacker does this while there are
   people
   &gt; watching for such activity, he will likely be seen. But if he does this
   &gt; while there are no watchers, there is little chance that he will become
   a
   &gt; who until after the attack has been completed.
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt; This report may be forwarded or republished on your website with
   attribution
   &gt; to www.stratfor.com.
   &gt;
   &gt; Copyright 2009 Stratfor.
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt;

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   Hotmail: Trusted email with powerful SPAM protection. Sign up now.
</description>
    <date>2009-11-05 01:46:25</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/376889_re-counterterrorism-shifting-from-who-to-how-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>musgrovesteve@hotmail.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>377522</id>
    <title>Trapwire and Perry
</title>
    <description>   I talked with a good friend of mine, Patrick Rose, Texas rep for Dripping
   Springs and he said that come March its full on again.

    

   Patrick Boykin

   Vice President

   Sales, Business Development

    

   STRATFOR

   Office: 512-744-4317

   Mobile: 512-965-6100

   www.stratfor.com

    
</description>
    <date>2009-12-18 04:28:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/377522_trapwire-and-perry-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>patrick.boykin@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>377783</id>
    <title>Re: Tirana update
</title>
    <description>   Yes

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2011 13:51:52 -0600 (CST)
   To: &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Tirana update
   Can we publish? As an update?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: burton@stratfor.com
   To: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2011 1:49:30 PM
   Subject: Re: Tirana update

   Have asked

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2011 13:44:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Burton Fred&lt;fred.burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Tirana update
   Is this a U.S. or an Albanian LE source?

   And if U.S., what is he doing with the opposition groups?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: burton@stratfor.com, "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "Tactical" &lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2011 1:40:14 PM
   Subject: Re: Tirana update

   I think this is worth being written up as a piece ahead of tomorrow's
   protests.

   Is it possible to publish this?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: burton@stratfor.com
   To: "Analysts" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;, "Tactical" &lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2011 1:36:04 PM
   Subject: Tirana update

   From TrapWire --

   Just in from a contact (Former senior law enforcement officer with direct
   access to Opposition party members).

    

   Tirana : 22 Jan 2011 (Situation at 1930 local)

    

   a**         Situation today calm, as Govt declared day of mourning for the
   "martyrs" (Berisha's words).

   a**         The Opposition has been hold-up all day today in Mayor Edi
   Rama's office discussing next steps. There is some reluctance on their
   part as to whether tomorrow's protest should proceed as planned. They have
   apparently received word that many protesters intend to come armed to
   protect themselves against the police.  Rama has commented privately he
   may lead the protest to try and keep them peaceful.

   a**         Despite this, the Opposition continues to insist they will not
   stop actions against the current regime until Berisha resigns. In
   response, Berisha has declared that "anyone touching an official
   government building will meet the same fate as the protestors yesterday."

   a**         Rumblings have started in other major cities throughout
   Albania re. sympathetic protests. Most notably Shkoder, Durres and
   Gjirokaster.

   a**         There are reports of a handful of arrests of senior police
   officials following yesterday's incident. Investigation is now underway as
   to who gave the order to fire upon the crowds.

   a**         Rumors continue to spread within the population that agents of
   the State Intelligence Service (SHISH) had infiltrated the crowds and
   provoked yesterday's violence. (Comment: No proof of this, but would not
   be the first time SHISH was used in this capacity).

   a**         Note: Great deal of fear and apprehension amongst the
   populace, particularly in Tirana. Most still have vivid memories of '90
   and '97. Average Albanian is still well armed following the ransacking of
   weapons depots in '97 and an escalation in violence is not unthinkable.

    

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 20:57:08</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/377783_re-tirana-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>377839</id>
    <title>Re: XXX
</title>
    <description>Med issue is still not 100 percent in Gs mind.

------Original Message------
From: Anya Alfano
To: burton@stratfor.com
Cc: Korena Zucha
Subject: Re: XXX
Sent: Jan 15, 2010 1:25 PM

Nothing new that I've found.  Are there any priorities about what else
we need to know at this point? 

On 1/15/2010 2:21 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
&gt; Any update on The Lord of Dripping Springs?
&gt;
&gt; Daddy G told me yesterday he's figuring out a way to make her disappear.  
&gt;
&gt; How?  He has no idea.
&gt;
&gt; She was holding court yesterday per Stick.
&gt;
&gt; G also briefed Peter and told him to stay mum.
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;   


Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2010-01-15 20:28:12</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/377839_re-xxx-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anya.alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>378104</id>
    <title>Re: FW: Request from STRATFOR
</title>
    <description>   Patrick Boykin was the POC.

   Circa 2009?

   You may recall I blogged about TrapWire? Abraxxas is TrapWire.

   No worries. Mike is an ex spook and knows shit happens.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Kyle Rhodes &lt;kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Wed, 12 Jan 2011 15:29:36 -0600
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: FW: Request from STRATFOR
   Ok, no problem. Since when has this agreement existed? I need to know this
   stuff so that I can put them on our list of content share partners and
   make sure that no one contacts them again like this. This is something
   that Brian didn't even know about (Meredith's jurisdiction to make sure
   this info is passed down to whoever's the current PR manager, so it's not
   your bad or anything).

   On 1/12/2011 3:21 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

     Kyle, These dudes have a partnership w/us to us content.  Fred

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Michael Maness [mailto:michael.maness@abraxasapps.com]
     Sent: Wednesday, January 12, 2011 3:07 PM
     To: Fred Burton
     Subject: FW: Request from STRATFOR

     Hi Fred,

      

     Hope all's well so far in 2011.

      

     Question: Do you know Kyle? We got this mssg from him. Has something
     changed? Or just a misunderstanding over there?  Mike

      

     From: Kyle Rhodes [mailto:kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Friday, January 07, 2011 8:26 PM
     To: abraxasapps.com Info Request
     Subject: Request from STRATFOR

      

     Dear sir or madam,

     I see that you have republished members-only content at the url below:

     http://www.abraxasapps.com/STRATFORMiltantHotels.pdf
     Please remove this content from your site immediately. This is a
     violation of our terms of use and copyright law by republishing
     members-only content without our express permission.

     As a publisher of online content, we must control where our work appears
     to protect the hard work of our analysts and so that our members have an
     incentive to pay the subscription fees that allow for STRATFOR to exist.

     In the future, if you would like to repost members-only material, please
     send an email request to pr@stratfor.com.

     Our Geopolitical and Security weeklies are the only pieces that may be
     reprinted without express permission - though still with full
     attribution.

     Please contact me when the content is removed from your site.

     Many Thanks,

 --

 Kyle Rhodes

 STRATFOR

 www.stratfor.com

  

 kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com

 +1.512.744.4309

 www.twitter.com/stratfor

 www.facebook.com/stratfor

     No virus found in this incoming message.
     Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
     Version: 9.0.872 / Virus Database: 271.1.1/3373 - Release Date: 01/12/11
     01:38:00

 --
 Kyle Rhodes
 Public Relations Manager
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com

 kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com
 +1.512.744.4309
 www.twitter.com/stratfor
 www.facebook.com/stratfor
</description>
    <date>2011-01-12 22:31:56</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/378104_re-fw-request-from-stratfor-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>378182</id>
    <title>Re: MX1 concerned about Wikileaks
</title>
    <description>   State has pulled the plug on OGA access to their cables.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Sun, 5 Dec 2010 13:02:33 -0500
   To: 'Marko Papic'&lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;; 'Fred
   Burton'&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: 'Alex Posey'&lt;alex.posey@stratfor.com&gt;; 'Ben
   West'&lt;ben.west@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: RE: MX1 concerned about Wikileaks

   This makes a lot of sense. The Wikileaks case will do the same thing (at
   least for a while) for a lot of countries as far as their contact with the
   Americans go.

    

   From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Saturday, December 04, 2010 9:33 PM
   To: Fred Burton
   Cc: Alex Posey; scott stewart; Ben West
   Subject: Re: MX1 concerned about Wikileaks

    

   I doubt they would scrub his name. The only repercussion for MX1 would be
   that he said something embarrassing and Wiki is all about publishing
   embarrassing statements. He is concerned that if the Juarez briefs are
   published, they might have him saying something negative about GOM, that
   is really his only concern.

   The interesting thing he highlighted is that it is going to be more
   difficult to be frank with Americans now. There is concern that more such
   leaks could happen. From Mexicans' standpoint they are not really afraid
   of giving secrets to Americans. They are scared that they are frank, blast
   corruption/incompetence in MXC, and then get fired when those cables are
   leaked.

   MX1 says that this is a bad thing because it is already difficult to get
   Mexicans to be frank about how much GOM sucks. First you have the
   nationalism issue, then the fact that many just don't like Americans, and
   now the ones that want to be frank are afraid they'll lose their job when
   GOM finds out they said Calderon has his head up his ass and that the
   Consul General is taking money from the Zetas.

   He has not seen any that U.S. diplomats from Juarez consulate wrote and he
   wouldn't have written any himself of course.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "Alex Posey" &lt;alex.posey@stratfor.com&gt;, "scott stewart"
   &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;, "Ben West" &lt;ben.west@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, December 4, 2010 8:00:37 AM
   Subject: Re: MX1 concerned about Wikileaks

   He should be concerned.

   On a positive note, I've seen a few names scrubbed out by the Wiki edit
   process, but have no idea who is doing this or their guidance.

   Has he seen any that he has written?

   Marko Papic wrote:
   &gt; I only now managed to talk to MX1 about Wikileaks. He had a lot of
   &gt; interesting insight about the language used by U.S. diplomats and the
   &gt; effect that the leaks are having on his own work and that of his
   &gt; colleagues. One thing he stressed is how unreliable the memos are.
   &gt; From his own experience -- having written hundreds -- the memos
   &gt; exaggerate the importance of information and sources for a reason, the
   &gt; diplomats are trying to justify their own existence and position. He
   &gt; did think some of the U.S. titles were quite ludicrous -- such as the
   &gt; one on cat in Turkmenistan.
   &gt;
   &gt; On a more serious note, MX1 indicated that he is very concerned about
   &gt; the Mexican batch of leaked memos. He said that thus far only 6 have
   &gt; been released, however, in total there are over a thousand.
   &gt; Apparently, there are 19 from Juarez. He knows the American
   &gt; counterparts in the Juarez Consulate very well. In his words, they
   &gt; ended up under a table of quite a few establishments drunk out of
   &gt; their mind together. He worries that the memos these diplomats wrote
   &gt; might cite him. In fact, he thinks that no other Mexican diplomat from
   &gt; El Paso consulate made the effort as much as he did to reach out to
   &gt; the Americans across the Rio in Juarez.
   &gt;
   &gt; He is not worried about any actual intel being leaked. He says he
   &gt; didn't leak any Mexican national secrets. The problem is that one of
   &gt; the American diplomats may have cited a conversation they had and said
   &gt; something like "subject looked nervous" or "subject is highly doubtful
   &gt; of GOM ability to do X" and get him into trouble. He has a policy of
   &gt; being as frank as possible with American law enforcement and diplomats
   &gt; and it could very well come out that he was blasting GOM in one of the
   &gt; memos. Knowing how Mexicans are when it comes to national criticism
   &gt; (not very good) he may get fucked.
   &gt;
   &gt; I told him not to sweat it. We always need interns. ;)
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt; --
   &gt;
   &gt; - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
   &gt;
   &gt; Marko Papic
   &gt;
   &gt; Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
   &gt;
   &gt; STRATFOR
   &gt;
   &gt; 700 Lavaca Street - 900
   &gt;
   &gt; Austin, Texas
   &gt;
   &gt; 78701 USA
   &gt;
   &gt; P: + 1-512-744-4094
   &gt;
   &gt; marko.papic@stratfor.com
   &gt;

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-05 19:44:48</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-03 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/378182_re-mx1-concerned-about-wikileaks-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ben.west@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alex.posey@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>378302</id>
    <title>Re: More for the blog
</title>
    <description>   How many do we have? 3-4?

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Aaron C. Pigeon" &lt;aaron.pigeon@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2010 16:31:42 -0500
   To: &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: More for the blog
   We can launch as is. Feel free to send over anything you want, but I'll
   probably hold everything until next week.

   On 9/22/10 4:24 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     How many more do you need before launch?

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Aaron C. Pigeon" &lt;aaron.pigeon@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2010 14:35:31 -0500
     To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: More for the blog
     posted

     http://fredburton.posterous.com/new-surveillance-tool-for-interrupting-terror
     On 9/22/10 1:47 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 This week, 500 surveillance cameras were activated on the NYC subway
 system to focus on pre-operational terrorist surveillance.  The
 surveillance technology is also operational on high-value targets (HVTs)
 in DC, Las Vegas, Los Angeles and London and is called TrapWire
 (www.abraxasapps.com).  TrapWire is one of the most innovative tools
 developed since 9-11 to help mitigate terrorist threats.   From a
 protective intelligence perspective, TrapWire does have the ability to
 share information on suspicious events or suspects between cities.
 Operationally, the ability to identify hostile surveillance at one
 target set -- in multiple cities -- can be used to neutralize terror
 threats by interrupting the attack cycle.   Meaning, a suspect
 conducting surveillance of the NYC subway can also be spotted by
 TrapWire conducting similar activity at the DC subway, connecting the
 infamous dots.  An additional benefit of TrapWire is that the system can
 also be used to help "walk back the cat" after an attack to identify
 terrorist suspects and modus operandi.    I can also see the tool being
 very effective in identifying general street crime. 



     --
     Aaron C. Pigeon

     STRATFOR
     Public Relations

     www.stratfor.com
     facebook.com/stratfor
     twitter.com/stratfor

   --
   Aaron C. Pigeon

   STRATFOR
   Public Relations

   www.stratfor.com
   facebook.com/stratfor
   twitter.com/stratfor
</description>
    <date>2010-09-22 23:33:17</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/378302_re-more-for-the-blog-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>aaron.pigeon@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>378308</id>
    <title>Re: TrapWire (TW)
</title>
    <description>V2hhdGV2ZXIgaXMgYmVpbmcgc2l0cmVwcGVkIG9yIHB1c2hlZCBpbnRvIHRo
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IEFUJlQNCg0KDQpTZW50IHZpYSBCbGFja0JlcnJ5IGJ5IEFUJlQ=
</description>
    <date>2010-09-23 01:37:37</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/378308_re-trapwire-tw-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>rbaker@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>oconnor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anya.alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bbronder@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>378320</id>
    <title>Re: TrapWire (TW)
</title>
    <description>VGhpcyBhdWRpZW5jZSBpcyB0aGUgd2hvJ3Mgd2hvIG9mIHRoZSBDVCB3b3Js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</description>
    <date>2010-09-23 02:17:03</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/378320_re-trapwire-tw-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>rbaker@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>oconnor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anya.alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bbronder@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>378415</id>
    <title>Re: FYI
</title>
    <description>   Fred, thanks much. I appreciate it much. Steve

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:37:38 -0600
   To: &lt;steven192518@yahoo.com&gt;
   Subject: FYI
   Hello Steve,
    
   I know how info in the protective intelligence arena falls through the
   cracks, so I pass this along just in case.
    
   The Bureau is looking at Hasan's next of kin in Northern  Va.    A
   female was interviewed re: Jihadist connects.   Hasan also had links to
   Copperas Cove.   I saw the name of the suspect but can't recall.  He was a
   white AmCitz convert/sympathizer.   May be good to ensure we have that
   person (the Texas AmCitz) BOLO'ed for the Gov Mansion and State Capital. 
   TrapWire could draw an immediate nexus, as an FYI, once its up and
   running.   
    
   Am hopeful I/CT is aware of this.  
    
   Best Regards, Fred  

    

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2009-11-21 01:58:29</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/378415_re-fyi-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>steven192518@yahoo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>378420</id>
    <title>Re: London Terror Surveillance (not for pub)
</title>
    <description>   Good question. I don't know. Will ask.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2010 19:21:20 -0500
   To: Secure List&lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: London Terror Surveillance (not for pub)
   granted we have a strong theory about the GCHQ/MI6 officer who was killed,
   but could this person or persons conducting surveillance have been
   involved?

   (though it really does look like the GCHQ guy locked himself in a bag and
   couldn't get out....)
   Fred Burton wrote:

     aQ terrorist surveillance has been positively identified outside of MI6
     Hqs in London.  MI5 is monitoring the terrorist suspect observed
     conducting the pre-operational surveillance.   
      
      

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-09-24 02:22:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-16 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/378420_re-london-terror-surveillance-not-for-pub-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>378597</id>
    <title>Albania 
</title>
    <description>   From TrapWire in response to Marko's questions --
    

   Fred -- Just in. Haven't had time to give a good scrub/spell check etc. so
   might be a bit raw. (His English is excellent, but not perfect).  M

   ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
      

    

    

    

               1. Any thoughts on what repercussions unrest in Albania could
   have for the region as a whole?

    

               Instability in Albania generally means instability within the
   Albanian diaspora in the region.

    

   .         Kosova: Just came out of general elections and is now facing an
   internal crises . The winning party does not have enough votes to elect a
   PM or create a new government. At the same time, the leadership of the
   winning party has been accused for war crimes and trafficking in human
   organs by a Swiss reporter. These issues have endangered the current
   political process towards Kosovo independence. Negotiations with Serbia
   are now on hold. An unstable political situation in Albania will be a big
   loss for Kosovo. Kosovo has no representation in international
   institutions and Albania is her biggest supporter and ally regarding
   Kosovo foreign policy.  A crisis in Albania will make the dialogue between
   Kosovo and Serbia, which is seeking a division of northern Kosovo.

    

   .         Macedonia: Our neighboring country has a population of 30%
   Albanians, who have been in constant conflict with the Macedonian
   government regarding their rights as a minority. Macedonian-Albanians are
   divided in to two groups:  one that is more liberal and has assimilated
   into Macedonian society; and the other a much more radical group that is
   in conflict Macedonian policies. Add to this Macedonia's on-going conflict
   with Greece, and one could speculate that any major crisis in Albania will
   only compound the problems inside Macedonia -- particularly for those
   Albanians seeking greater rights inside Macedonia. There is a precedence
   for this problem during the 1997 conflict in Albania.

    

   .         Greece: Our only neighboring country with EU membership is still
   going through a very bad political and economic crises itself. There are
   almost 1.5 million Albanians living in Greece -- many are illegal
   immigrants working illegally. Another crises in Albania could likely fuel
   another mass exodus to Greece (and Italy) -- particularly now that
   Albanians can finally travel without visas in Europe.   

    

   2.  After 1997 anarchy, weapons flowed across the borders to Kosovo and
   Macedonia. Any chance that another crisis has an effect on neighboring
   countries?

    

               In my opinion, it is unlikely the current situation will
   deteriorate to the point of 1997, which was fueled by economic collapse
   rather than only political differences. Albanians still have strong
   memories and feelings about this period, and would likely try to avoid a
   repeat...particularly as the only groups who will profit from another
   crises would be the weapons, drugs, and fuel traffickers .

          

    

               3.  What is Berisha's role in neighboring Kosovo and
   Macedonia. Does he have influence with Kosovo leadership? Or Macedonian
   Albanian leadership?

    

               Generally speaking, Berisha does not have much of a role in
   the region. He continues to be viewed as a model of the old leadership.
   Clearly, Kosovo will always          need the support of the Albanian PM
   and his government; however, many Kosovars remember that Berisha gave only
   lukewarm support to the KLA, and was   believed to have profited
   personally by allowing fuel shipments into Serbia and Montenegro, despite
   the NATO embargo at the time. Berisha is still viewed as            
   having too close of ties to Serbia -- one of his closest contacts is Damir
   Fasllic, a character who is believed to have contacts at the highest
   levels of the Serbian           government. Berisha does not appear to
   have particularly strong ties to Macedonia and, with the loss of
   Jukanovic, probably has limited influence in Montenegro as          well

            

    

                4.  If there is a change in government to Edvin Rama, would
   it in any way change the situation in Albania or region?

    

               Edvin Rama is the leader of the Albanian opposition Socialist
   Party -- which represents about 50 % of the Albanian voters. Rama is known
   as a head-strong and       somewhat radical figure amongst the
   international community in Albania. He is not very good at dialoguing --
   often creating situations that neither side can win.           Despite
   these weaknesses, Rama represents the "modern" leader that many Albanians
   have been hoping for since 1990. His work in modernizing and cleaning-up
               the capital has made him very popular, and given him the image
   of someone who can get things done for the people (He has twice been
   re-elected as mayor).          Rama's popularity and modern thinking has
   been commented on favorably by many EU leaders and representatives.

    
</description>
    <date>2011-01-26 01:09:57</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/378597_albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>379052</id>
    <title>Fw: [CT] Former Turk intel guy says Gulen is CIA front--in Central Asia
</title>
    <description>   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: ct-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2011 17:19:32 -0600
   To: CT AOR&lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;; mesa&lt;mesa@stratfor.com&gt;; EurAsia
   Team&lt;eurasia@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: [CT] Former Turk intel guy says Gulen is CIA front--in Central
   Asia
   *No idea who this guy is, but this is at least pretty entertaining. It's
   interesting that Baer admits the CIA hadn't recruited any 'agents' in Kyrg
   and Uzb in the '90s, unless he is mocking the use of the word 'agent'
   instead of 'officer.'

   Posted at 5:08 PM ET, 01/ 5/2011
   Islamic group is CIA front, ex-Turkish intel chief says
   http://voices.washingtonpost.com/spy-talk/2011/01/islamic_group_is_cia_front_ex-.html
   By Jeff Stein

   A memoir by a top former Turkish intelligence official claims that a
   worldwide moderate Islamic movement based in Pennsylvania has been
   providing cover for the CIA since the mid-1990s.

   The memoir, roughly rendered in English as "Witness to Revolution and Near
   Anarchy," by retired Turkish intelligence official Osman Nuri Gundes, says
   the religious-tolerance movement, led by an influential former Turkish
   imam by the name of Fethullah Gulen, has 600 schools and 4 million
   followers around the world.

   In the 1990s, Gundes alleges, the movement "sheltered 130 CIA agents" at
   its schools in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan alone, according to a report on
   his memoir Wednesday by the Paris-based Intelligence Online newsletter.

   The book has caused a sensation in Turkey since it was published last
   month.

   Gulen could not be reached for comment.

   But two ex-CIA officials with long ties to Central Asia cast doubt on
   Gundes's charges.
   Former CIA operative Robert Baer, chief of the agency's Central Asia and
   Caucasus operations from 1995 through 1997, called the allegations bogus.
   "The CIA didn't have any `agents' in Central Asia during my tenure," he
   said.

   It's possible, Baer granted, that the CIA "turned around this ship after I
   left," but only the spy agency could say for sure, and the CIA does not
   comment on operational sources and methods.

   A U.S. intelligence official, speaking on condition of anonymity, also
   said Gundes's "accounts are ringing no bells whatsoever."

   Likewise, Graham Fuller, a former CIA station chief in Kabul and author of
   "The Future of Political Islam," threw cold water on Gundes's allegations
   about Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.

   "I think the story of 130 CIA agents in Gulen schools in Central Asia is
   pretty wild," Fuller said by e-mail.

   "I should hasten to add that I left CIA in 1987 -- nearly 25 years ago --
   and I have absolutely no concrete personal knowledge whatsoever about
   this. But my instincts tell me the claim is highly improbable."

   Fuller added, "I cannot even imagine trying to credibly sell such a scheme
   with a straight face within the agency. As for Nuri Gundes, I am not aware
   of who he is or what he has written. But there is a lot of wild stuff
   floating around in Turkey on these issues and Gulen is a real hot button
   issue."

   Imam Gulen, "whose views are usually close to U.S. policy," according to
   Intelligence Online,[for real?] favors toleration of all religions,
   putting his movement in direct competition with al-Qaeda and other radical
   groups for the affection of Muslims across Central Asia, the Middle East
   and even Europe and Africa, where it has also expanded its reach.

   Gundes, who was Istanbul station chief for Turkey's MIT intelligence
   agency, "personally supervised several investigations into Gulen's
   movement in the 1990s," according to the newsletter's report on his
   memoir, which has not been translated into English. The purpose of
   Gundes's investigation was not immediately clear. His own religious views
   could not be determined, but the influence of radical Islamist forces in
   Turkey swelled in the 1990s.

   The imam left Turkey in 1998 and settled in Saylorsburg, Pa., where the
   movement is headquartered. According to Intelligence Online, he obtained a
   residence permit only in 2008 with the help of Fuller and George Fidas,
   whom it described as head of the agency's outreach to universities.

   Fuller says that's wrong.

   "I did not recommend him for a residence permit or anything else. As for
   George Fidas, I have never even heard of him and don't know who he is."

   "What I did do," Fuller explained, "was write a letter to the FBI in early
   2006 ...at a time when Gulen's enemies were pressing for his extradition
   to Turkey from the U.S. In the post 9/11 environment, they began spreading
   the word that he was a dangerous radical. In my statement to the FBI I
   offered my views...that I did not believe he posed a security threat of
   any kind to the U.S. I still believe that today, as do a large body of
   scholars on contemporary Islam.

   "I do not at all consider Gulen a radical or dangerous." Fuller continued.
   "Indeed in my view--and I have studied a lot of Islamist movements
   worldwide--his movement is perhaps one of the most encouraging in terms of
   the evolution of contemporary Islamic political and social thinking..."

   Fidas could not be reached for comment, nor would the CIA answer questions
   about him. George Washington University's Elliot School of International
   Affairs lists him as a visiting professor and "Director for Outreach in
   the Office of the Assistant Director of Central Intelligence for Analysis
   and Production."

   But the title was abolished when the Directorate of National Intelligence
   was created several years ago, an informed source said.
   2011
   01
   05
   17
   08

   By Jeff Stein  | January 5, 2011; 5:08 PM ET

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-01-07 00:28:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-07 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/379052_fw-ct-former-turk-intel-guy-says-gulen-is-cia-front-in.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>jh@hornfischerlit.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>379356</id>
    <title>Re: WikiLeaks plans 'major' announcement within hours as Pentagon bracesfor massive Iraq war leak
</title>
    <description>   DOD and DHS are the problem.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: James Casey &lt;jimcasey58@aol.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2010 14:39:34 -0400
   To: &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: WikiLeaks plans 'major' announcement within hours as Pentagon
   braces for massive Iraq war leak
   This is why...........even though the FBI is always the first to be
   criticized for not playing nice-nice in the sandbox.............the
   concept of "widely sharing of information" is not always a great idea. 
   For a number of years I have used the very example of "a slick sleeved
   private, siting in a tent in Baghdad, looking at thousands of classified
   reports on SIPRNET", as a bad way to business.  Even I didn't think that
   was going to be the exact scenario that has played out with this WikiLeaks
   fiasco.  Maybe everybody at the DNI and DHS who have been pimping the
   "share by rule, withhold by exception," concept for the last nine years
   will change their tune a little, and acknowledge that "need to know" is
   still a valuable idea. 

   -----Original Message-----
   From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: 'James Casey' &lt;jimcasey58@aol.com&gt;
   Sent: Fri, Oct 22, 2010 1:16 pm
   Subject: FW: WikiLeaks plans 'major' announcement within hours as Pentagon
   braces for massive Iraq war leak

    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, October 22, 2010 12:15 PM
   To: 'Tactical'
   Subject: WikiLeaks plans 'major' announcement within hours as Pentagon
   braces for massive Iraq war leak
   By PAULINE JELINEK and RAPHAEL G. SATTER Associated Press Writers
   LONDON - The WikiLeaks website is poised to release what the Pentagon
   fears is the largest cache of secret U.S. documents in history - hundreds
   of thousands of intelligence reports that could amount to a classified
   history of the war in Iraq.
   U.S. officials said Friday they were racing to contain the damage from the
   imminent release, while NATO's top official told reporters he feared that
   lives could be put at risk by the mammoth disclosure.
   NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen said any release would create "a very
   unfortunate situation."
   "I can't comment on the details of the exact impact on security, but in
   general I can tell you that such leaks ... may have a very negative
   security impact for people involved," he told reporters Friday in Berlin
   following a meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
   In a posting to Twitter, the secret-spilling website said there would be a
   "major WikiLeaks announcement in Europe" at 0900 GMT (5 a.m.
   EDT) Saturday. The group has revealed almost nothing publicly about the
   nature of the announcement.
   Meanwhile, a team of more than a hundred analysts from across the U.S.
   military, led by the Defense Intelligence Agency, has been combing through
   the Iraq documents they think will be released in anticipation of the
   leak.
   Called the Information Review Task Force, its analysts have pored over the
   documents and used word searches to try to pull out names and other issues
   that would be particularly sensitive, officials have said.
   The task force has informed U.S. Central Command of some of the names of
   Iraqis and allies and other information they believe might be released
   that could present a danger, officials have said, noting that - unlike the
   WikiLeaks previous disclosure of some 77,000 documents from Afghanistan -
   in this case they had advance notice that names may be exposed.
   Once officials see what is publicly released, the command "can quickly
   push the information down" to forces in Iraq, Marine Corps Col.
   Dave Lapan, a Defense Department spokesman, said Friday in Washington.
   "Centcom can jump into action and take whatever mitigating steps"
   might be needed, Lapan said.
   While the latest WikiLeaks revelations may not change public perceptions
   of the Iraq war - it has been extremely unpopular in Europe and divides
   opinion in the United States - they could provide new insight about a
   conflict that seemed headed for success after the invasion in 2003 before
   descending into a yearslong, blood-soaked struggle.
   The documents could shed light on the root causes of the insurgency, for
   instance, or the growth of sectarian violence that blighted Baghdad and
   other Iraqi cities. It may also give a behind-the-scenes glimpse at some
   of the major episodes of the war - like the manhunt for insurgent chief
   Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, or the killing of U.S. security contractors on March
   31, 2004, by a mob in Fallujah, an incident which ultimately led to the
   U.S. assault on the Iraqi city.
   Wikileaks' previous release in July of secret war documents from Iraq and
   Afghanistan outraged the Pentagon, which accused the group of being
   irresponsible. Fogh Rasmussen said Friday that leaks of this nature "may
   put soldiers as well as civilians at risk."
   It appears that those fears - which the military has invoked in its appeal
   to WikiLeaks and the media not to publish the documents - have yet to
   materialize. A Pentagon letter obtained by The Associated Press reported
   that no U.S. intelligence sources or practices were compromised by the
   Afghan war logs' disclosure.
   Still, the military feels any classified documents release can harm
   national security and raise fears for people who might consider
   cooperating with the U.S. in the future, Lapan said.
   Ryan Crocker, U.S. ambassador to Iraq from 2007-08, said the disclosures
   would be more worrisome if the U.S. were still fully engaged in combat in
   Iraq - but he still sees it as a major problem.
   "I'd really be worried if - as looks to be the case - you have Iraqi
   political figures named in a context or a connection that can make them
   politically and physically vulnerable to their adversaries," he told a
   conference Friday at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in
   Washington.
   "That has an utterly chilling effect on the willingness of political
   figures to talk to us - not just in Iraq but anywhere in the world," he
   said.
   ___
   Jelinek reported from Washington. National Security Writer Robert Burns in
   Washington and Associated Press Writer Melissa Eddy in Berlin contributed
   to this report.


   No virus found in this incoming message.
   Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
   Version: 9.0.862 / Virus Database: 271.1.1/3212 - Release Date: 10/22/10
   01:34:00
</description>
    <date>2010-10-22 21:15:37</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/379356_re-wikileaks-plans-major-announcement-within-hours-as.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>jimcasey58@aol.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>379458</id>
    <title>Capital security
</title>
    <description>Duke, 

Is the TrapWire project dead?

Thanks,

Fred
</description>
    <date>2010-04-02 15:31:15</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/379458_capital-security-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Robert.Bodisch@txdps.state.tx.us</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>379545</id>
    <title>Re: Tirana Sitrep
</title>
    <description>   Thx!

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2011 14:56:30 -0500
   To: burton@stratfor.com&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: RE: Tirana Sitrep

   No problem.

    

   From: burton@stratfor.com [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2011 1:56 PM
   To: Michael Maness
   Subject: Re: Tirana Sitrep

    

   Can we use without attribution?

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;

   Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2011 14:49:43 -0500

   To: burton@stratfor.com&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;

   Subject: RE: Tirana Sitrep

    

   Albanian

    

   From: burton@stratfor.com [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2011 1:49 PM
   To: Michael Maness
   Subject: Re: Tirana Sitrep

    

   Is this a U.S. or an Albanian LE source?

   And if U.S., what is he doing with the opposition groups?

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;

   Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2011 14:29:08 -0500

   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;

   Subject: Tirana Sitrep

    

   Just in from a contact (Former senior law enforcement officer with direct
   access to Opposition party members).

    

   Tirana : 22 Jan 2011 (Situation at 1930 local)

    

   .         Situation today calm, as Govt declared day of mourning for the
   "martyrs" (Berisha's words).

   .         The Opposition has been hold-up all day today in Mayor Edi
   Rama's office discussing next steps. There is some reluctance on their
   part as to whether tomorrow's protest should proceed as planned. They have
   apparently received word that many protesters intend to come armed to
   protect themselves against the police.  Rama has commented privately he
   may lead the protest to try and keep them peaceful.

   .         Despite this, the Opposition continues to insist they will not
   stop actions against the current regime until Berisha resigns. In
   response, Berisha has declared that "anyone touching an official
   government building will meet the same fate as the protestors yesterday."

   .         Rumblings have started in other major cities throughout Albania
   re. sympathetic protests. Most notably Shkoder, Durres and Gjirokaster.

   .         There are reports of a handful of arrests of senior police
   officials following yesterday's incident. Investigation is now underway as
   to who gave the order to fire upon the crowds.

   .         Rumors continue to spread within the population that agents of
   the State Intelligence Service (SHISH) had infiltrated the crowds and
   provoked yesterday's violence. (Comment: No proof of this, but would not
   be the first time SHISH was used in this capacity).

   .         Note: Great deal of fear and apprehension amongst the populace,
   particularly in Tirana. Most still have vivid memories of '90 and '97.
   Average Albanian is still well armed following the ransacking of weapons
   depots in '97 and an escalation in violence is not unthinkable.

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 20:57:48</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/379545_re-tirana-sitrep-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.maness@trapwire.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>379763</id>
    <title>Re: Balkans
</title>
    <description>   Indeed and thank you

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 27 Jan 2011 16:54:33 -0500
   To: burton@stratfor.com&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: RE: Balkans

   Thanks for the background. I'll keep sending you stuff gratis for now -
   unless this blows up and we have another Balkan-wide situation and you
   need on-the-ground reporters. We can revisit then.

    

   From: burton@stratfor.com [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, January 27, 2011 1:48 PM
   To: Michael Maness
   Subject: Re: Balkans

    

   Well, a mix of ways. Paid sources in places like MX and Lebanon with
   analysts scattered in various cities. If Albania continues swirling, we
   can look at some sort of money but have zero budgeted at this time. We
   also have a huge network of investigative journalists in places like Iran.
   Surprisingly, folks talk to us due to our academic model.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;

   Date: Thu, 27 Jan 2011 13:03:42 -0500

   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;

   Subject: Balkans

    

   Just out of curiosity: how do you (STRATFOR) work with and maintain
   reporting sources? My contact's well-connected to LE, intel and govt in
   both Albania and Kosovo. I'm always looking to throw a little work his way
   -- particularly this kind of stuff that's not having him hang his ass too
   far out in the wind.

    
</description>
    <date>2011-01-27 23:03:30</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/379763_re-balkans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.maness@trapwire.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>380329</id>
    <title>RE: [TACTICAL] Ali Mohammadi
</title>
    <description>   Actually, it all tracks very well with what we already published.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Monday, January 25, 2010 3:31 PM
   To: Alex Posey
   Cc: Fred Burton; TACTICAL; secure@stratfor.com
   Subject: Re: [TACTICAL] Ali Mohammadi
   are we publishing this info?
   On Jan 25, 2010, at 2:23 PM, Alex Posey wrote:

     He thinks A-dogg's camp had him whacked and thinks HZ operatives did
     it.  Hence the comment about the pic of Abu Nasser at the bomb scene.

     Fred Burton wrote:

 The Prof believes he was killed by Iranian security/intel?

 Meaning, an Iranian govt sanctioned assassination inside Iran?

 Alex Posey wrote:
  

 Prof thinks Iranians killed him to send a message to Academia to chill
 out and because it was easy to blame it on the West

 Fred Burton wrote:
    

 Who killed him?

 Alex Posey wrote:
  
      

 Spoke with a former colleague of Masoud Ali Mohammadi and who is
 currently a Physics professor at Chapman University outside of L.A.  He
 definitely had an agenda and was very long winded in his responses.

 Attached is the document he prepared for me over the weekend that has
 photos of Ali Mohammadi, photo of memorial outside his office at Tehran
 University as well as his funeral procession.  The document also had
 copies of the letter Ali Mohammadi wrote to the President of Tehran
 University asking him to condemn the raids on the student's dorms after
 the election by the Basijis and Police, copy of a statement of
 clarification of Ali Mohammadi's field of interest by his colleagues at
 Tehran University, as well as a letter from the American Physical
 Society expressing its condolences to the Physics Society of Iran.

 Last saw Ali Mohammadi in 1995 in Iran but kept up email contact up
 until about year ago, but has been in contact with several of his
 students and other Iranian friends after Ali Mohammadi's death.
 -----------------------------------------------
 Forgive the jumpiness, but the Prof was all over the place.

 &gt;From our convo:

 Ali Mohammadi's area of expertise was in Dark Energy and string theory.
 NOT in anything that was remotely related to nuclear physics.  Pointed
 out that Iran Atomic Energy Organization came out and stated that Ali
 Mohammadi had never worked them.

 Ali Mohammadi gave an approximate 70 min (has a recording but hasn't
 sent it to me) talk about the current political unrest in Iran at a
 weekly kind of open forum at Tehran University, where people give talks
 about a variety of subjects, on Jan. 5 - a week before his death.  Ali
 Mohammadi was invited to talk about the political unrest, but was warned
 not to go (wouldn't say by whom).  Ali Mohammadi talked about how
 regardless if the elections was fair or not there was significant
 section of the Iranian nation that was upset with the current
 administration and that the regime need not ignore the sector of Iranian
 society but address their concerns.   Ali Mohammadi was asked combative
 and challenging questions by A-dogg supporters in the audience.  Ali
 Mohammadi wanted to answer these questions in next weeks talk with
 larger audience.  End of recording.

 During his early years (1980s) Ali Mohammadi was not active in politics
 (not party of 1979 revolution like previously thought, according to
 prof).  Ali Mohammadi was in the first class of physics PhD students in
 Iran at Shiraz University in 1981, and he chose to state to show that
 Iran was capable of producing world class physicists without having to
 go abroad for an education - indicative of his nationalism.  There were
 four in his class and he was the first to graduate.  One of the other
 three in his class ended up being a parliament member who ended up
 writing on his blog about Ali Mohammadi's death (sympathetic and worried).

 Ali Mohammadi was a true believer of the system, but when A-dogg came to
 power he began to lose faith in the system and started to become more
 politically active.  Ali Mohammadi started to become really active about
 three years ago and would gather students for rallies.

 Activity outside of Iran:

 Ali Mohammadi was very active outside of Iran, particularly with the
 SESAME project (Synchrotron-light for Experimental Science and
 Applications in the Middle East).  He was the Iranian representative in
 the project and routinely interacted with many western scientists
 (http://www.sesame.org.jo/Council/CouncilMembers.aspx).

 Side Convo:

 On a side note.  Several of the people the Prof speaks to in Iran are
 saying that Hezbollah operatives have been transferred to Iran after the
 elections and are being used to crack down on the opposition.  Prof said
 that he has a picture of Abu Nasser at the bomb scene of Ali Mohammadi
 that was posted on FARS but was quickly taken down.  I have asked for it
 but has yet to send it to me.




 --
 Alex Posey
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 alex.posey@stratfor.com


 ------------------------------------------------------------------------

    
        

 --
 Alex Posey
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 alex.posey@stratfor.com

    

 --
 Alex Posey
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 alex.posey@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-01-25 21:34:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/380329_re-tactical-ali-mohammadi-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alex.posey@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>380431</id>
    <title>RE: More on Ali Mohammadi
</title>
    <description>It is noisy spectacular, draws tons of attention and gives the MOIS and
Sepah a major excuse to root out all the Zionist spies causing such wanton
destruction in the very heart of the revolutionary city of Iran. (Also
scares the crap out of all the other dissidents.) 

 

-----Original Message-----
From: burton@stratfor.com [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
Sent: Tuesday, January 26, 2010 5:43 PM
To: scott stewart; Alex Posey; secure@stratfor.com; Tactical
Subject: Re: More on Ali Mohammadi

And a bomb doesn't?

------Original Message------
From: scott stewart
To: Fred
To: Alex Posey
To: secure@stratfor.com
To: Tactical
Subject: RE: More on Ali Mohammadi
Sent: Jan 26, 2010 4:34 PM

Shooter could be seen and would leave ballistic evidence, also would not
draw much attention. Too quiet. 

This was a spectacular, evil Jewish terrorist attack against the Iranian
heartland. 

Better stamp out the menace hard. 
 

-----Original Message-----
From: burton@stratfor.com [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
Sent: Tuesday, January 26, 2010 5:23 PM
To: Alex Posey; secure@stratfor.com; Tactical
Subject: Re: More on Ali Mohammadi

Awful lot of trouble to whack a guy when you can shoot him in the back of
the head and still blame our lovely Israeli allies.  

By bomb makes little sense.  

Only Stick or George would think of that.  I would prefer to torture then
shoot.  Better chance of success.

His old lady could have pulled out that morning to buy goats milk or pita.

------Original Message------
From: Alex Posey
To: secure@stratfor.com
To: Tactical
Subject: More on Ali Mohammadi
Sent: Jan 26, 2010 4:05 PM

Not sure we had seen this before/
--------------------------------------------------------------

Alex,

You might be interested in the following report from the The Green Path
Movement:

Dr. Ali-Mohammadi?s House Raided Prior to His Assassination  One day before
his assassination, Professor Ali-Mohammadi?s house was raided by Ministry of
Information agents. Also, his documents were reportedly confiscated.
Moreover, two weeks prior to his assassination the professor resigned from
all responsibilities of cooperating with nuclear organizations.
Following his assassination, the professor?s family was threatened by
intelligence agents in order to prevent the possibility of news circulating
about the raid on the house.
There were numerous intelligence agents present at the scene, even during
the memorial service.
Dr. Ali-Mohammadi, a prominent university professor who supported the Green
Movement, was assassinated on January 12, 2010 by a remote-controlled bomb
that went off at the front of his house in northern Tehran.

Regards,

XXXXXXX

--
Alex Posey
Tactical Analyst
STRATFOR
alex.posey@stratfor.com



Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T



Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2010-01-27 00:14:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/380431_re-more-on-ali-mohammadi-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alex.posey@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>380450</id>
    <title>Re: Close-Hold
</title>
    <description>   Only thing  so far is a meeting with sen williams on thurs.  Will be
   interesting to see what is discussed at the commission mtg on friday. 
   Grant was turned in yesterday, so it looks like that money will get used.
   I'll keep you posted.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: burton@stratfor.com &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: Sawyer, Blake
   Sent: Tue Jan 26 17:06:03 2010
   Subject: Re: Close-Hold

   Any movement?

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   -----Original Message-----
   From: "Sawyer, Blake" &lt;Blake.Sawyer@txdps.state.tx.us&gt;
   Date: Mon, 25 Jan 2010 09:44:09
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: RE: Close-Hold

   Nope... I've submitted my recommendations with a heavy emphasis on
   TRAPWIRE and 100% digital CCTV upgrades for the entire Capitol, but have
   been told that all recommendations will be passed up to the
   legislature/committees for a decision. As long as DPS is charged with
   securing a public building without "owning" any of the physical
   systems/hardware OR the ability to implement critical security measures
   without the approval of an arguing, indecisive body of untrained,
   self-proclaimed, security experts, I fear the public and the stakeholders
   in the complex will remain soft targets for domestic violence and acts of
   terrorism.

    

   -----Original Message-----
   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Monday, January 25, 2010 9:27 AM
   To: Sawyer, Blake
   Subject: Re: Close-Hold

   Any traction?

   Sawyer, Blake wrote:
   &gt; Sir,
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; Sent this email out this morning....
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; *From:* Sawyer, Blake
   &gt; *Sent:* Friday, January 22, 2010 9:19 AM
   &gt; *To:* Bodisch, Robert; Jones, John
   &gt; *Cc:* McCraw, Steven; Beckworth, Lamar
   &gt; *Subject:* REC/SECURITY EST - CAPITOL
   &gt; *Importance:* High
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; Sir,
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; *I.                    **_TRAPWIRE (Initial deployment/install
   &gt; $252,000.00 - Annual Recurring Fee $151,000)_*
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 1)      These prices are tied to the GSA Schedule, which means they will
   &gt; not change with CONUS deployments of TRAPWIRE.  Only thing that would
   &gt; increase the price at this point would increasing the number of
   &gt; trainees.  Given what happened yesterday, I would think the Capitol
   &gt; would want to train as many people as possible. They have two courses:
   &gt; TPOP for security professionals (this is the course I attended with 50
   &gt; Troopers / SO's) and a two hour TPOC course for non-security
   &gt; professionals (i.e. vendors, groundskeepers, others who work in/around
   &gt; the complex). This second course is a two-hour class designed to
   &gt; sensitize attendees to terrorist/criminal surveillance techniques, but
   &gt; doesn't delve as deeply into case studies and other sensitive areas.
   &gt;  It's also offered in full Spanish.
   &gt;
   &gt; 2)      In the event we are querried re. who else is using the system,
   &gt; we can start with something general like "Several major city police
   &gt; departments and one overseas government".  If we are pressed for
   &gt; specifics, we can advise them that Nevada Counterterrorism Center in Las
   &gt; Vegas under Tom Monahan is a client, although we can't disclose any of
   &gt; the specific casinos that are linked in (more than 60 right now).
   &gt;
   &gt; 3)      It would also help, I think, to advise them that LAPD (Commander
   &gt; Joan McNamara) is a client and advocate of the system.  This is
   &gt; important b/c she is the driving force behind the SAR initiative being
   &gt; run with all the major city police chiefs and TRAPWIRE's role therein.
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; .         We can't openly disclose other major clients that I'll brief
   &gt; you on personally.
   &gt;
   &gt; .         They have initiated a new training program for LE and Security
   &gt; professionals to use when confronting suspicious individuals.
   &gt; Specifically, how do you elicit intelligence and detect deception in a
   &gt; non-threatening and legal manner.  This course will be customized
   &gt; specifically for Texas state law and will be available in March. All
   &gt; training courses run about $300 per head.
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; *II.                  **_CAMERAS/SERVERS/RECORDERS ($427,000.00)_*
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 1)      Recommend upgrade of all existing cameras and associated
   &gt; equipment to 100% digital.  This will involve replacing many of the
   &gt; existing "legacy" cameras, while linking in all that we can into the new
   &gt; system.
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 2)      Recommend upgrading all existing cameras (about 130) to Sony
   &gt; high speed dome cameras w/ 540 lines resolution or better or equivalent.
   &gt; (Sony model # CD55NV-36S is ideal for indoor/outdoor applications and
   &gt; run $1K each).  Existing cameras are divided b/w 1992, 1996, and 2001
   &gt; models with a few newer replacements  (but poor quality) units.  In
   &gt; order to cover the dead space inside and outside the building, we need
   &gt; 125 additional cameras.  Why?  Because currently we only have good
   &gt; coverage on the great walk on the southside and the bollards to the
   &gt; north.  Everything else is dead space and covering the grates/windows
   &gt; with cameras is much more economical than wiring them shut.  All of the
   &gt; new cameras will need CAT-5 run to them which runs approx $1 per foot to
   &gt; install.
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; Total Cost of Recommended Cameras: $255K
   &gt;
   &gt; Total Est Cost of New Camera Labor (est. 300'+ ft per camera): $78K
   &gt;
   &gt; Total Est Cost of New Servers (3 Total): $24K (Recommend DELL Quad Core
   &gt; Xeon Server E5450 or equivalent from another company. These run $8K each
   &gt; and we need two on ops and a backup).
   &gt;
   &gt; Total Est Cost of New NVR's (2 Total) w/ 25T of Storage: $20K
   &gt;
   &gt; Total Est Cost of New Monitors: $15K
   &gt;
   &gt; Total Est Cost Monitoring Software: $35K
   &gt;
   &gt; Grand Est Total: $427,000.00
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; *III.                **METAL DETECTORS/CARD SCAN ACCESS POINTS/BASEMENT
   &gt; - TUNNEL TURNSTYLES (in original proposal) *
   &gt;
   &gt; *IV.                **MASS NOTIFICATION SYSTEM (Reney has
   &gt; numbers/details on this)*
   &gt;
   &gt; *V.                  **WirelessWerx 911 Nodes (Proposal due into me by
   &gt; noon today) *
   &gt;
   &gt; * *
   &gt;
   &gt; * *
   &gt;
   &gt; *I'll have additional data available NLT noon today.*
   &gt;
   &gt; * *
   &gt;
   &gt; *S/F,*
   &gt;
   &gt; * *
   &gt;
   &gt; *Blake*
   &gt;
   &gt; * *
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; ------------------------------------------------------------------------
   &gt;
   &gt; NOTICE: This email message and all attachments transmitted with it are
   &gt; intended solely for the use of the addressees and may contain legally
   &gt; privileged, protected or confidential information. If you have received
   &gt; this message in error, please notify the sender immediately by email
   &gt; reply and please delete this message from your computer and destroy any
   &gt; copies.
   &gt;
</description>
    <date>2010-01-27 00:47:38</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/380450_re-close-hold-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Blake.Sawyer@txdps.state.tx.us</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>380540</id>
    <title>Re: On Bruno
</title>
    <description>   Fred,

   You are very welcome, this research took me back to the good days, and I
   really enjoyed doing it.

   I started conducting a social media research on the subject and identified
   an individual connected to Bruno. His name is Ute Mu:lle. Ute is a German
   living in Switzerland with connections to Hammas* leadership in Syria and
   Gaza.

   I would like to gather more information on the subject from public sources
   before I approach any official intel sources. This is mostly because I*m
   afraid that someone will start wondering about my interest on the subject
   and I want to make sure that we don*t step on any toes.

   I will keep you informed on the research. Good luck in NY this week, I
   wish I could join your presentation there but I have to be in Dallas this
   week.

   Best regards.

   David

   On Fri, Jun 17, 2011 at 1:50 PM, Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

     Fact is much stranger then fiction my friend.  Where is Bruno or his
     daughter now?  Thanks very much for the efforts. 
     On 6/17/2011 1:06 PM, David Dafinoiu wrote:

       Hello Fred,

        

       I called few former colleagues that I worked with in Germany and
       Eastern Europe and also pulled out some private information I have on
       Bruno. I also confirmed few details with public source information.

        

       Bruno*s (code name *Luca*) last known trip started on November 11,
       1995, with his girlfriend and their daughter Shona, 2 years old, when
       they boarded a ferry in the Greek port of Igoumenitsa on their way to
       Ancona, Italy, which was an approx 15 hours trip.  Arrived at Ancona,
       where the Italian customs were informed about Bruno*s presence on the
       ferry, and being on the Italian intelligence red list as *persona non
       grata*, he was separated from his girlfriend and his daughter, and
       sent back with the ferry to Igoumenitsa.

        

       The Italians were warned of Bruno*s presence on the ferry by the Greek
       police. The Greek secret service waited for him back in Igoumenitsa to
       pick him up. Apparently the Greeks were acting on behalf of French
       authorities now. He was living part of the year in Perdika, a small
       Greek village not far from Igoumenitsa, with the knowledge and the
       protection of the country*s secret service since 1994. After Carlos
       was arrested, Bruno was spending the time between Greece, Italy and
       Austria. Bruno*s problems started when the Greeks and the French found
       out that he was a double agent.

        

       While the Greeks were waiting to pick him up at the port, an Israeli
       Navy commando team accompanied by a war ship and a helicopter, that
       had a mission close to Cyprus, were sent after Bruno to extract him
       before the he gets in the port. He was picked up 17 minutes before the
       ferry arrived in the port of Igoumenitsa.

  After the mysterious disappearing there were rumors that it was a special
  operation supported by NATO naval forces, which is not true. There were few
  individuals in European ports at that time presenting themselves as NATO
  officers, but they were Mossad and US Navy Intel. Mossad officers with
  European citizenship posed as 'NATO officials' in many other previous missions
  around the world, including the Middle East.

       Another version was that Bruno was abducted by the Greek secret
       service in an operation of thugs linked to the case of Carlos and
       sponsored by Paris.

        

       Another version was that Bruno was hiding in the ferry out of fear* a
       non-sense version since the Greek secret service searched the ferry in
       the port. The rumors about his dead body being in Greece were based on
       the fact that he never contacted his family after the disappearing.

       Back in 1994, four Swiss terrorists were arrested and detained for
       several weeks by the Department General of Switzerland because they
       were suspected of belonging to what Stasi used to call "Separat", the
       code name for the Carlos Group. Their names were passed to the
       Hungarian secret services by Bruno during one of his trips to Austria.
       The Hungarians passed the names to the Swiss.

       The US intelligence community had good relationship with the
       Hungarians in 1995, where the Americans had few secret bases. After
       the delivery of Bruno by the Israelis to the Americans (I*m not sure
       about the agency, but it could be the Navy intelligence) in a friendly
       port, Bruno was taken to Hungary. I just learned that Bruno left
       Budapest, Hungary under a new identity at the end of 1997 to South
       America. The most likely destination was Cuba.

       An evidence that he was still alive in 1996 was the fact that his
       initial patron, the Swiss Nazi Francois Genoud, was looking for him
       too. Francois had the information on Bruno*s possible locations from
       one or more ex-Stasi officers with connections in the Hungarian secret
       service. Genoud also had ties to UBL that was looking after Bruno in
       Arab countries. Much of bin Laden group's international activities
       took place in the Geneva offices of Saudi Investment Company, managed
       by board members that included Baudoin Dunant, who represented
       Francois Genoud when he was on trial for participation in
       international terrorism.

       The CIA and the Israelis tried to take Genoud out in October 1993 when
       he escaped a Mossad assassination attempt at his home in Switzerland.
       Since then he became aware that the Israelis were closing in on him.

       I arrived in Budapest in May 1996, but never heard about Bruno after
       the mission in the Mediterranean. In the next few days I left Budapest
       to Switzerland via Austria and Germany. I*m not sure if Genoud knew
       about Bruno*s location, even if he was well connected in the CIA. I*m
       not even sure that the CIA knew Bruno*s location. I just learned that
       in June 1997 he was still in the Hungarian secret service custody.  

        

       However, Genoud died few days later on May 30, 1996 when he just
       returned from a restaurant to his home town on Lake Lausanne. This
       time he was poisoned for real and died immediately. The media reported
       that his friends and relatives accompanied him back to his house,
       where one of his lunch companions prepared him a lethal cocktail per
       Genoud requests. At least this time the Mossad was not accused for the
       assassination :)

       If it is true that Bruno left to Cuba in 1997 and is still alive, then
       he should be 62 years old today. His daughter, Shona, should be 18
       years old.

       I*ll continue investigating the case and keep you informed.

       Best regards,

       David

       On Wed, Jun 15, 2011 at 5:03 PM, Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
       wrote:

         Yes in deed.  Most interested.  I don't think we grabbed him because
         that was on my watch. 
         On 6/15/2011 2:39 PM, David Dafinoiu wrote:

           On the contrary to what many people believe, Mossad is not
           assasinating people that easy. Even the most recent incident in
           Dubai was an accident, they tried to bring the victim to Israel
           and exchange him with the Israeli soldier in Iranian's custody.

           Bruno was picked up by an Israeli navy commando and brought to a
           friendly port in the Medditeranean. There he was picked up by a
           team with two white vans to an unknown destination. The agents
           were americans. There were rummors that he was taken to a CIA
           secret site and he died during the interogation. I personally 
           believe that he is living under a new identity somewhere in South
           America. I left the Navy in 96 and have not heard about him since
           then. I can try to find out more on him if you are interested.

           Best regards, David

           Sent from my NorAm portable Galaxy(c)

           David Dafinoiu
           President

           NorAm Intelligence

           Mobile: 646-678-2905
           david@dafinoiu.com
           dd@noramintel.com
           http://noramintel.com

           On Jun 15, 2011 1:48 PM, "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
           wrote:

       --
       Cordially,
        
       David Dafinoiu
       President
       NorAm Intelligence
       Mobile: 646-678-2905
       david@dafinoiu.com
       dd@noramintel.com
       http://noramintel.com
        
       
       The information contained in this facsimile or electronic message is
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   --
   Cordially,
    
   David Dafinoiu
   President
   NorAm Intelligence
   Mobile: 646-678-2905
   david@dafinoiu.com
   dd@noramintel.com
   http://noramintel.com
    
   
   The information contained in this facsimile or electronic message is
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</description>
    <date>2011-06-19 22:38:29</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-12 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/380540_re-on-bruno-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>david@dafinoiu.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>380738</id>
    <title>RE: more lies
</title>
    <description>We need to list strictly work-related things, not fantasies about her
personal life. 

-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
Sent: Tuesday, February 09, 2010 10:17 PM
To: scott stewart
Cc: 'korena zucha'; 'Anya Alfano'
Subject: Re: more lies

It's all work related, to include lying to the entire staff.

scott stewart wrote:
&gt; We need to focus on the work-related stuff.  
&gt; 
&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt; From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
&gt; Sent: Tuesday, February 09, 2010 10:07 PM
&gt; To: scott stewart; 'korena zucha'; Anya Alfano
&gt; Subject: more lies
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; 
</description>
    <date>2010-02-10 04:33:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/380738_re-more-lies-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anya.alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>380848</id>
    <title>Re: Reuters media query --wikileaks
</title>
    <description>   The release of the material in the first place, but this is what nations
   do. Rule number one in this business: There are no friendly intelligence
   services.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: &lt;Peter.Apps@thomsonreuters.com&gt;
   Date: Sun, 28 Nov 2010 20:02:31 +0000
   To: &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;; &lt;kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: RE: Reuters media query --wikileaks

   Any thoughts on what the most serious part of the information released so
   far is? The encouraging diplomats to spy, the Saudi/Iran material or
   simply the release of the data in the first place?

    

   From: burton@stratfor.com [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: 28 November 2010 19:38
   To: Apps, Peter M. (M Edit Ops); Kyle Rhodes
   Subject: Re: Reuters media query --wikileaks

    

   Serious

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: &lt;Peter.Apps@thomsonreuters.com&gt;

   Date: Sun, 28 Nov 2010 19:31:52 +0000

   To: &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;; &lt;kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com&gt;

   Subject: RE: Reuters media query --wikileaks

    

   Serious damage control or manageable damage control?

    

   From: burton@stratfor.com [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: 28 November 2010 19:23
   To: Apps, Peter M. (M Edit Ops); Kyle Rhodes
   Subject: Re: Reuters media query --wikileaks

    

   Peter,

   It becomes damage control for Foggy Bottom to manage and presents foreign
   intelligence liaison issues.

   Fred

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: &lt;Peter.Apps@thomsonreuters.com&gt;

   Date: Sun, 28 Nov 2010 18:41:33 +0000

   To: &lt;kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com&gt;; &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;

   Subject: Reuters media query --wikileaks

    

   Hi Fred,

    

   Wondering if you have any quick thoughts on wiki leaks -- at least, what
   we've seen so far. Anything earthshattering? Or is the real impact going
   to be the way in which diplomats are more circumspect in the indications
   from now on? Strikes me that one of the lessons of this is how much easier
   the information age has made it to steal gigantic quantities of
   information in one go...

    

   Any thoughts greatly received,

    

   Peter

    

   Peter Apps

   Political Risk Correspondent

   Reuters News

    

   Thomson Reuters

    

   Direct line: +44 20 7542 0262

   Mobile: +44 7990 560586

   E-mail: peter.apps@thomsonreuters.com

    

   This email was sent to you by Thomson Reuters, the global news and
   information company.
   Any views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender,
   except where the sender specifically states them to be the views of
   Thomson Reuters.

   This email was sent to you by Thomson Reuters, the global news and
   information company.
   Any views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender,
   except where the sender specifically states them to be the views of
   Thomson Reuters.

   This email was sent to you by Thomson Reuters, the global news and
   information company.
   Any views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender,
   except where the sender specifically states them to be the views of
   Thomson Reuters.
</description>
    <date>2010-11-28 21:12:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/380848_re-reuters-media-query-wikileaks-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Peter.Apps@thomsonreuters.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>381032</id>
    <title>Fw:
</title>
    <description>
------Original Message------
From: George Friedman
To: Scott Stewart
To: 'George Friedman'
To: Fred Burton
ReplyTo: friedman@att.blackberry.net
Subject: Re:
Sent: Jan 28, 2010 4:47 PM

We could try but it wouldn't work. 

Not worried about the blowback as much as you guys are. This will mature the team when it blows. A lot more care will emerge. 
------Original Message------
From: scott stewart
To: 'George Friedman'
To: Fred Burton
Subject: RE:
Sent: Jan 28, 2010 4:23 PM

Copy. Is there any way we can begin to separate here from the rest of the
company? Cause her to  do her projects on her own from home?



Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2010-01-29 00:17:37</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/381032_fw-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anya.alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>381244</id>
    <title>Re: SA Gregg Geerdes - UltraMarathon effort
</title>
    <description>   How much did TrapWire cost?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Sawyer, Blake" &lt;Blake.Sawyer@txdps.state.tx.us&gt;
   Date: Sat, 22 May 2010 16:01:03 -0500
   To: &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: SA Gregg Geerdes - UltraMarathon effort
   Yep... Got the initial paperwork pushed through. Site survey is complete
   and expect the p.o. And day now. We'll see how everything goes. Exxon
   wants me to come down to Houston in two weeks to discuss Africa. I'll keep
   you updated.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: Sawyer, Blake
   Sent: Sat May 22 09:06:28 2010
   Subject: Re: SA Gregg Geerdes - UltraMarathon effort
   Good work on the metal detectors! TrapWire moving?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Sawyer, Blake" &lt;Blake.Sawyer@txdps.state.tx.us&gt;
   Date: Sat, 22 May 2010 08:59:47 -0500
   To: &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: SA Gregg Geerdes - UltraMarathon effort
   Awesome.. He'll get support from my family.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: Sawyer, Blake
   Sent: Fri May 21 19:11:15 2010
   Subject: SA Gregg Geerdes - UltraMarathon effort
    

   The Diplomatic Security Foundation (DSF) is pleased to announce an
   exciting partnership between DSF and Diplomatic Security SA Gregg Geerdes:

   Gregg is participating in this year's Badwater Ultramarathon. Recognized
   globally as "the world's toughest foot race," this legendary event pits up
   to 90 of the world's toughest athletes, runners, tri-athletes, adventure
   racers, and mountaineers against one another and the elements. Covering
   135 miles (217km) non-stop from Death Valley to Mt. Whitney, CA in
   temperatures up to 130F (55c), it is the most demanding and extreme
   running race offered anywhere on the planet.  To make the most of his
   challenge, Gregg has designated the Diplomatic Security Foundation (DSF)
   as his charity. To date, more than $3,000 in donations have come into DSF
   on behalf of Gregg from those who are inspired by his efforts. If you too
   would like to support this monumental feat, or learn more about Gregg,
   please visit the DSF website today to make a donation:
   http://www.dsfoundation.org/howtodonate/gregggeerdeschallenge.html

    

   (For more info about the race, see the Badwater website:
   www.badwater.com.)

    
   Have a Great Week !
</description>
    <date>2010-05-22 23:33:19</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/381244_re-sa-gregg-geerdes-ultramarathon-effort-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Blake.Sawyer@txdps.state.tx.us</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>381527</id>
    <title>XXX
</title>
    <description>Any update on The Lord of Dripping Springs?

Daddy G told me yesterday he's figuring out a way to make her disappear.  

How?  He has no idea.

She was holding court yesterday per Stick.

G also briefed Peter and told him to stay mum.


Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2010-01-15 20:21:22</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/381527_xxx-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anya.alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>381530</id>
    <title>[TACTICAL] Wussification of America
</title>
    <description>Does Oboma think sanctions on Iran are going to work?  

Dumb asses

Covert action is needed
</description>
    <date>2010-02-11 00:44:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-23 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/381530_-tactical-wussification-of-america-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>381723</id>
    <title>Re: Close-Hold
</title>
    <description>   Good advice and I will... I'll help Joe Ortiz behind the scenes on the
   purpose of principle and genuine concern for people's safety. As of COB
   today, however, I have not been asked to do anything in the way of
   security except get cost estimates for Dke - I have a few things that I
   will send you tomorrow from a different account.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: Sawyer, Blake
   Sent: Tue Jan 26 20:01:47 2010
   Subject: RE: Close-Hold

   Now that the ball is in your court, you need to CYA, in case a random
   jihadi or lunatic walks in w/an AK-47. 
    
   Turn the heat up. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sawyer, Blake [mailto:Blake.Sawyer@txdps.state.tx.us]
   Sent: Tuesday, January 26, 2010 5:48 PM
   To: burton@stratfor.com
   Subject: Re: Close-Hold

   Only thing  so far is a meeting with sen williams on thurs.  Will be
   interesting to see what is discussed at the commission mtg on friday. 
   Grant was turned in yesterday, so it looks like that money will get used.
   I'll keep you posted.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: burton@stratfor.com &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: Sawyer, Blake
   Sent: Tue Jan 26 17:06:03 2010
   Subject: Re: Close-Hold

   Any movement?

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   -----Original Message-----
   From: "Sawyer, Blake" &lt;Blake.Sawyer@txdps.state.tx.us&gt;
   Date: Mon, 25 Jan 2010 09:44:09
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: RE: Close-Hold

   Nope... I've submitted my recommendations with a heavy emphasis on
   TRAPWIRE and 100% digital CCTV upgrades for the entire Capitol, but have
   been told that all recommendations will be passed up to the
   legislature/committees for a decision. As long as DPS is charged with
   securing a public building without "owning" any of the physical
   systems/hardware OR the ability to implement critical security measures
   without the approval of an arguing, indecisive body of untrained,
   self-proclaimed, security experts, I fear the public and the stakeholders
   in the complex will remain soft targets for domestic violence and acts of
   terrorism.

    

   -----Original Message-----
   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Monday, January 25, 2010 9:27 AM
   To: Sawyer, Blake
   Subject: Re: Close-Hold

   Any traction?

   Sawyer, Blake wrote:
   &gt; Sir,
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; Sent this email out this morning....
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; *From:* Sawyer, Blake
   &gt; *Sent:* Friday, January 22, 2010 9:19 AM
   &gt; *To:* Bodisch, Robert; Jones, John
   &gt; *Cc:* McCraw, Steven; Beckworth, Lamar
   &gt; *Subject:* REC/SECURITY EST - CAPITOL
   &gt; *Importance:* High
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; Sir,
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; *I.                    **_TRAPWIRE (Initial deployment/install
   &gt; $252,000.00 - Annual Recurring Fee $151,000)_*
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 1)      These prices are tied to the GSA Schedule, which means they will
   &gt; not change with CONUS deployments of TRAPWIRE.  Only thing that would
   &gt; increase the price at this point would increasing the number of
   &gt; trainees.  Given what happened yesterday, I would think the Capitol
   &gt; would want to train as many people as possible. They have two courses:
   &gt; TPOP for security professionals (this is the course I attended with 50
   &gt; Troopers / SO's) and a two hour TPOC course for non-security
   &gt; professionals (i.e. vendors, groundskeepers, others who work in/around
   &gt; the complex). This second course is a two-hour class designed to
   &gt; sensitize attendees to terrorist/criminal surveillance techniques, but
   &gt; doesn't delve as deeply into case studies and other sensitive areas.
   &gt;  It's also offered in full Spanish.
   &gt;
   &gt; 2)      In the event we are querried re. who else is using the system,
   &gt; we can start with something general like "Several major city police
   &gt; departments and one overseas government".  If we are pressed for
   &gt; specifics, we can advise them that Nevada Counterterrorism Center in Las
   &gt; Vegas under Tom Monahan is a client, although we can't disclose any of
   &gt; the specific casinos that are linked in (more than 60 right now).
   &gt;
   &gt; 3)      It would also help, I think, to advise them that LAPD (Commander
   &gt; Joan McNamara) is a client and advocate of the system.  This is
   &gt; important b/c she is the driving force behind the SAR initiative being
   &gt; run with all the major city police chiefs and TRAPWIRE's role therein.
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; .         We can't openly disclose other major clients that I'll brief
   &gt; you on personally.
   &gt;
   &gt; .         They have initiated a new training program for LE and Security
   &gt; professionals to use when confronting suspicious individuals.
   &gt; Specifically, how do you elicit intelligence and detect deception in a
   &gt; non-threatening and legal manner.  This course will be customized
   &gt; specifically for Texas state law and will be available in March. All
   &gt; training courses run about $300 per head.
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; *II.                  **_CAMERAS/SERVERS/RECORDERS ($427,000.00)_*
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 1)      Recommend upgrade of all existing cameras and associated
   &gt; equipment to 100% digital.  This will involve replacing many of the
   &gt; existing "legacy" cameras, while linking in all that we can into the new
   &gt; system.
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 2)      Recommend upgrading all existing cameras (about 130) to Sony
   &gt; high speed dome cameras w/ 540 lines resolution or better or equivalent.
   &gt; (Sony model # CD55NV-36S is ideal for indoor/outdoor applications and
   &gt; run $1K each).  Existing cameras are divided b/w 1992, 1996, and 2001
   &gt; models with a few newer replacements  (but poor quality) units.  In
   &gt; order to cover the dead space inside and outside the building, we need
   &gt; 125 additional cameras.  Why?  Because currently we only have good
   &gt; coverage on the great walk on the southside and the bollards to the
   &gt; north.  Everything else is dead space and covering the grates/windows
   &gt; with cameras is much more economical than wiring them shut.  All of the
   &gt; new cameras will need CAT-5 run to them which runs approx $1 per foot to
   &gt; install.
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; Total Cost of Recommended Cameras: $255K
   &gt;
   &gt; Total Est Cost of New Camera Labor (est. 300'+ ft per camera): $78K
   &gt;
   &gt; Total Est Cost of New Servers (3 Total): $24K (Recommend DELL Quad Core
   &gt; Xeon Server E5450 or equivalent from another company. These run $8K each
   &gt; and we need two on ops and a backup).
   &gt;
   &gt; Total Est Cost of New NVR's (2 Total) w/ 25T of Storage: $20K
   &gt;
   &gt; Total Est Cost of New Monitors: $15K
   &gt;
   &gt; Total Est Cost Monitoring Software: $35K
   &gt;
   &gt; Grand Est Total: $427,000.00
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; *III.                **METAL DETECTORS/CARD SCAN ACCESS POINTS/BASEMENT
   &gt; - TUNNEL TURNSTYLES (in original proposal) *
   &gt;
   &gt; *IV.                **MASS NOTIFICATION SYSTEM (Reney has
   &gt; numbers/details on this)*
   &gt;
   &gt; *V.                  **WirelessWerx 911 Nodes (Proposal due into me by
   &gt; noon today) *
   &gt;
   &gt; * *
   &gt;
   &gt; * *
   &gt;
   &gt; *I'll have additional data available NLT noon today.*
   &gt;
   &gt; * *
   &gt;
   &gt; *S/F,*
   &gt;
   &gt; * *
   &gt;
   &gt; *Blake*
   &gt;
   &gt; * *
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; ------------------------------------------------------------------------
   &gt;
   &gt; NOTICE: This email message and all attachments transmitted with it are
   &gt; intended solely for the use of the addressees and may contain legally
   &gt; privileged, protected or confidential information. If you have received
   &gt; this message in error, please notify the sender immediately by email
   &gt; reply and please delete this message from your computer and destroy any
   &gt; copies.
   &gt;
</description>
    <date>2010-01-27 03:18:17</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/381723_re-close-hold-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Blake.Sawyer@txdps.state.tx.us</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>381828</id>
    <title>Fw: Attack cycle
</title>
    <description>     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@abraxasapps.com&gt;
   Date: Wed, 7 Apr 2010 08:38:09 -0400
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Attack cycle

   Fred,

    

   Enjoyed the video. Spot-on with what we teach in our Surveillance
   Awareness Workshop. We actually use an Attack Cycle diagram similar to
   yours -- but broken down even further with emphasis on the three stages of
   surveillance that occur prior to a typical attack. Our clients are getting
   the message, and their security personnel understand that they can detect
   these indicators and have a hand in thwarting the attack before it ever
   happens. (A very empowering feeling for many of them). And, based on the
   number of suspicious activities detected by TrapWire users over the past
   two years (many significant enough to be turned over to law enforcement
   and JTTF for further investigation), the approach we and you are
   advocating really works. Hope you get a chance to see the system in action
   some time out in Vegas. They are the poster child for how to use the
   system correctly.

    

   Fight the good fight,

   Mike

    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   NOTICE: This email message and all attachments transmitted with it are
   intended solely for the use of the addressees and may contain legally
   privileged, protected or confidential information. If you have received
   this message in error, please notify the sender immediately by email reply
   and please delete this message from your computer and destroy any copies.
</description>
    <date>2010-04-07 14:42:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/381828_fw-attack-cycle-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>brian.genchur@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>grant.perry@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>382150</id>
    <title>Re: Info - Another MOSSAD Intelligence Operation  ** internal useonly - pls do not forward **
</title>
    <description>   Back in the day, the Agency were in just about every major MNC with
   international operations. Today, I know one.

   How many Chinese or Israeli companies have plants?
   Oh about 90 percent.

   Who is swirling around the intel bowl?

   Er...the one who holds birthday parties for double agents because we have
   none.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 25 Mar 2010 17:30:02 -0500
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: 'Secure List'&lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Info - Another MOSSAD Intelligence Operation ** internal use
   only - pls do not forward **
   And why wouldn't the Chinese (especially) or Americans doing this too?

   Fred Burton wrote:

     Business intelligence. 
      
     There is a MOSSAD operative under business cover stealing other
     companies secrets from this group. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Sean Noonan [mailto:sean.noonan@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Thursday, March 25, 2010 5:27 PM
     To: Fred Burton
     Cc: 'Secure List'
     Subject: Re: Info - Another MOSSAD Intelligence Operation ** internal
     use only - pls do not forward **
     I'll look into this a little more, but I would find it hard to believe
     that a number of other agencies haven't also infiltrated it. 

     Fred Burton wrote:

       http://www.scip.org/
        
       According to the FBI (not for attribution) the MOSSAD has infiltrated
       this organziation.   
        

                                   About SCIP

       The Society of Competitive Intelligence Professionals (SCIP) is a
       global nonprofit membership organization for everyone involved in
       creating and managing business knowledge. Our mission is to enhance
       the success of our members through leadership, education, advocacy,
       and networking.

       Specifically, SCIP provides education and networking opportunities for
       business professionals working in the rapidly growing field of
       competitive intelligence (the legal and ethical collection and
       analysis of information regarding the capabilities, vulnerabilities,
       and intentions of business competitors). Many SCIP members have
       backgrounds in market research, strategic analysis, or science and
       technology.

       Established in 1986, today SCIP has chapters around the world, with
       individual members in nations around the globe. In addition, SCIP has
       alliance partnerships with independent affiliate organizations in many
       countries.

 --
 Sean Noonan
 ADP- Tactical Intelligence
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

  

 --
 Sean Noonan
 ADP- Tactical Intelligence
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-03-25 23:45:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-15 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/382150_re-info-another-mossad-intelligence-operation-internal.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>382246</id>
    <title>Fw: [CT] [OS] GREECE/US/CT - Greek police match launcher used inUSembassy hit
</title>
    <description>     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2010 13:23:21 +0000
   To: CT AOR&lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [CT] [OS] GREECE/US/CT - Greek police match launcher used in
   USembassy hit
   The chances the Greeks did this on their own are slim. We probably matched
   the forensics and letting them claim credit.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Wilson &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2010 08:20:12 -0500
   To: &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [CT] [OS] GREECE/US/CT - Greek police match launcher used in
   US embassy hit

   Zack Dunnam wrote:

     Greek police match launcher used in US embassy hit
     Friday, June 18, 2010; 8:31 AM

     http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/18/AR2010061802223.html

     ATHENS, Greece -- Greek police say a rocket-propelled grenade launcher
     found in a suspected radical hideout was used against the U.S. embassy
     in Athens three years ago.

     A far-left group called Revolutionary Struggle claimed the audacious
     Jan. 2007 attack on Greece's most heavily guarded foreign embassy, which
     caused no injuries and minor damage.

     Police arrested six suspected group members in April, and seized what is
     believed to have been Revolutionary Struggle's main arsenal in an Athens
     flat. The haul included the launcher, RPGs, firearms and explosives.

     A police statement Friday said laboratory tests have confirmed the
     launcher was used against the embassy.

     The six suspects, all self-declared anarchists, have been charged with
     terrorism and attempted murder.
</description>
    <date>2010-06-18 15:25:15</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-03 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/382246_fw-ct-os-greece-us-ct-greek-police-match-launcher-used.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>PosillicoM2@state.gov</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>382437</id>
    <title>Re: Comrade J on Polish Plane Crash
</title>
    <description>   I don't know how he knows, but WITSEC had him in DC to meet with foreign
   intelligence officers during the nuclear summit.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 22 Apr 2010 20:50:03 -0400
   To: burton@stratfor.com&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Marko Papic&lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;; Secure
   List&lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Comrade J on Polish Plane Crash
   Comrade J still has the ability to communicate with ppl who would know
   something like that..?

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Apr 22, 2010, at 8:16 PM, "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

     Interesting

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Marko Papic &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: Thu, 22 Apr 2010 16:55:53 -0600
     To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
     Cc: 'Secure List'&lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: Comrade J on Polish Plane Crash
     This was actually one of the theories that one of my contacts also gave
     me. But the intention was not to kill Kacynzki, just make his life
     difficult by forcing him to land in Minsk and therefore miss the Katyn
     Massacre ceremonies set to begin in an hour from landing. But instead,
     the pilots tried to land anyways and crashed the flight.

     Fred Burton wrote:

       The Russians purposefully denied the aircraft the ability to land
       knowing that the Polish President would either force the pilot to land
       based upon their own leadership analysis collection of the President's
       m.o.; or the plane would return and not land at the location. 
        
       He claims purposeful act.  His words not mine. 
        
       Reportedly, the Russians have similar plans (scenarios) for other
       foreign leaders that can be pulled off the shelf if desired by
       Putin/FSB.
        
       Follow up questions welcomed. 
        
        
        
        

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-04-23 03:11:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/382437_re-comrade-j-on-polish-plane-crash-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>382440</id>
    <title>Re: Tirana update
</title>
    <description>   Cannot source to TrapWire

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2011 13:44:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Burton Fred&lt;fred.burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Tirana update
   Is this a U.S. or an Albanian LE source?

   And if U.S., what is he doing with the opposition groups?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: burton@stratfor.com, "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "Tactical" &lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2011 1:40:14 PM
   Subject: Re: Tirana update

   I think this is worth being written up as a piece ahead of tomorrow's
   protests.

   Is it possible to publish this?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: burton@stratfor.com
   To: "Analysts" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;, "Tactical" &lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2011 1:36:04 PM
   Subject: Tirana update

   From TrapWire --

   Just in from a contact (Former senior law enforcement officer with direct
   access to Opposition party members).

    

   Tirana : 22 Jan 2011 (Situation at 1930 local)

    

   a**         Situation today calm, as Govt declared day of mourning for the
   "martyrs" (Berisha's words).

   a**         The Opposition has been hold-up all day today in Mayor Edi
   Rama's office discussing next steps. There is some reluctance on their
   part as to whether tomorrow's protest should proceed as planned. They have
   apparently received word that many protesters intend to come armed to
   protect themselves against the police.  Rama has commented privately he
   may lead the protest to try and keep them peaceful.

   a**         Despite this, the Opposition continues to insist they will not
   stop actions against the current regime until Berisha resigns. In
   response, Berisha has declared that "anyone touching an official
   government building will meet the same fate as the protestors yesterday."

   a**         Rumblings have started in other major cities throughout
   Albania re. sympathetic protests. Most notably Shkoder, Durres and
   Gjirokaster.

   a**         There are reports of a handful of arrests of senior police
   officials following yesterday's incident. Investigation is now underway as
   to who gave the order to fire upon the crowds.

   a**         Rumors continue to spread within the population that agents of
   the State Intelligence Service (SHISH) had infiltrated the crowds and
   provoked yesterday's violence. (Comment: No proof of this, but would not
   be the first time SHISH was used in this capacity).

   a**         Note: Great deal of fear and apprehension amongst the
   populace, particularly in Tirana. Most still have vivid memories of '90
   and '97. Average Albanian is still well armed following the ransacking of
   weapons depots in '97 and an escalation in violence is not unthinkable.

    

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 20:59:27</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/382440_re-tirana-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>382535</id>
    <title>Comrade J
</title>
    <description>Confirmed the KGB hit on Zia.
</description>
    <date>2010-04-03 01:45:19</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/382535_comrade-j-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>382954</id>
    <title>Re: Jews Turn Against Obama
</title>
    <description>   Good piece

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Ronald Kessler &lt;KesslerRonald@gmail.com&gt;
   Date: Wed, 28 Apr 2010 15:07:59 -0400
   To: &lt;kesslerronald@gmail.com&gt;
   Subject: Jews Turn Against Obama

   Jews Turn Against Obama

Newsmax

                            Jews Turn Against Obama

   Wednesday, April 28, 2010 11:52 AM

   By: Ronald Kessler

   In a stunning turnaround, President Obama has lost roughly half of his
   support among Jewish voters.

   A poll by McLaughlin and Associates found that, while 78 percent of Jewish
   voters cast their ballots for Obama, only 42 percent of Jewish voters
   would vote to re-elect him. A plurality * 46 percent * would consider
   voting for anyone else. That compares with 21 percent who voted for John
   McCain.

   Ever since he learned of Obama*s ties to the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Morton
   Klein, president of the Zionist Organization of America, has been warning
   fellow Jews that Obama would be antithetical to Jewish interests, not only
   as they relate to Israel but also to issues that affect all Americans.

   Before Obama was elected, Klein, whose organization of 30,000 members is
   the oldest pro-Israel group in the country, felt like a pariah. Now, as he
   speaks to Jewish audiences on a weekly basis, he has found that the
   climate has changed dramatically.

   *As I speak at synagogues now around the country, I haven*t had a single
   person during Q and A or after my talk ask how I could be so critical of
   Obama,* Klein tells Newsmax.

   Klein tells his audiences they should not be surprised that Obama*s
   left-leaning policies appear to tilt more toward the Palestinians than to
   Israelis. He cites the fact that Obama and his wife, Michelle, spent 20
   years listening to Wright, who routinely denounced Israel as a racist
   state and America for allegedly having created the AIDS virus to kill off
   blacks.

   Wright, whom Obama described as a mentor and sounding board, even gave an
   award for lifetime achievement to Louis Farrakhan.

   *God damn America,* Wright shouted in one of his sermons.

   Obama*s speeches have been *inimical to Israel and supportive of the
   stream of false Palestinian Arab claims concerning Israel,* Klein says.
   *He is relentlessly pressuring Israel while applying virtually almost no
   pressure on the Palestinian Authority to fulfill its written obligations.
   He is worse than Jimmy Carter was when he was president. It was so obvious
   if you just looked at Obama*s associations before he was elected. Jews
   simply ignored that.*

   David Remnick*s book *The Ridge: The Life and Rise of Barack Obama* quotes
   an unidentified campaign aide to Hillary Clinton as saying that, if the
   stories about Wright*s ties to Obama had appeared in January 2008, *it
   would have been over,* meaning Hillary would have won the Democratic
   nomination for president.

   In fact, as outlined in the Newsmax story "The Media*s Blackout on Rev.
   Wright,"* those stories on Wright were appearing as early as January 2008
   * at Newsmax.com * but the mainstream media ignored them and would not
   pick them up until mid-March.

   Before the election, Klein remembers, *If I talked about Reverend Wright
   in talks at synagogues, they would say I was using guilt by association. I
   would always explain you can*t say that. He chose this church. He chose to
   have a friendship with Wright because this is a person he is comfortable
   with and because Wright espouses views he believes in.*

   Klein notes, *If a Jew was a member of a synagogue where the rabbi
   preached hatred of blacks, it would be clear that that Jew would be
   comfortable with anti-black racism. I couldn*t remain for a week at a
   synagogue where a rabbi made a hateful speech toward blacks. I*d quit
   immediately.*

   But now the tide is turning, Klein says. As recently as last weekend, *At
   the synagogue where I spoke, two of my most left-wing lunatic friends were
   saying, *My God, Mort, you were right. I never should have voted for
   Obama.**

   Several Jewish leaders have turned against Obama as well, Klein says, some
   openly and some behind the scenes because they do not want to cut off ties
   with a president. Klein quotes one of the most prominent Jewish leaders as
   having told him recently, *It*s better if I*m on the inside than the
   outside. So there*s no point in my publicly criticizing him because then I
   won*t have influence.*

   *What influence?* Klein asks rhetorically. *It felt so good to so many of
   liberals to be voting for the first black man to run for president that
   nothing else mattered,* Klein says. *They felt good proving that they are
   not racist.*

   Only 17 percent of Orthodox Jews now would vote to re-elect Obama,
   according to the McLaughlin poll. Among conservative Jews, 38 percent
   would vote for him again. Fifty-two percent of reform Jews would re-elect
   him. Among Jews who have been to Israel, 36 percent now would cast their
   ballots for him. When polled, 12 percent responded they did not know or
   refused to answer.

   *The majority of Jews now realize that this guy is bad for Israel, let
   alone bad for America,* Klein says.

   Ronald Kessler is chief Washington correspondent of Newsmax.com. View his
   previous reports and get his dispatches sent to you free via e-mail. Go
   here now.

   --
   www.RonaldKessler.com
</description>
    <date>2010-04-28 23:29:44</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-23 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/382954_re-jews-turn-against-obama-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>KesslerRonald@gmail.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>383068</id>
    <title>Re: names20
</title>
    <description>   I'm gonna turn down future WM work, aint worth the angst

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 16 Apr 2010 17:51:41 -0500 (CDT)
   To: &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: names20
   FYI. Beth told me that GF isn't a fan of doing business with Scott but
   that we wouldn't turn work down just because of that. If we are going to
   do it, and anything really, then we are only going to do it for a good
   price.

   I don't think Scott would have liked that response so I went with the one
   below :)

   Ill flash the work. Anya will start on this next week.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Korena Zucha" &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Friday, April 16, 2010 5:49:20 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re: names20

   Woho, u did pull that answer out of your rear!

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 16 Apr 2010 17:34:18 -0500 (CDT)
   To: &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: korena zucha&lt;korena.zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: names20
   Tell him we pulled both numbers out of our rears! Can say something along
   the lines of this-

   The old pricing was based on an hourly rate, which we no longer use. Our
   pricing model for such reports has increased in particular as these
   projects require dedicated time by our briefers and analysts, which is
   time spent away from our usual daily projects.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "korena zucha" &lt;korena.zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Friday, April 16, 2010 3:56:48 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Fw: names20

   ?
   -----Original Message-----
   From: "Scott McHugh" &lt;Scott.Mchugh@wal-mart.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 16 Apr 2010 15:47:31
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: RE: names20

   Fred,
   Use this email as authorization to proceed with the project for both
   candidates with the delivery deadlines noted in the tasking email.

   Just out of curiosity:  why has the price for this service increased so
   much?  The assessment Stratfor conducted for Stephan Fanderal in 2008
   was only $5K and I was curious as to what drove the spike in price?

   Regards
   Scott

   ***All of the terms and conditions enumerated in the Non Disclosure
   Agreement previously signed between Stratfor and WMT remain in effect
   for this project.***    

    

   -----Original Message-----
   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, April 16, 2010 2:08 PM
   To: Scott McHugh
   Subject: Re: names20

   Scott - From our business folks, let me know, Thanks Fred

   We are capable of completing the reports. Since we no longer use hourly
   rates, the cost of the reports would be $8,000 each. 50 percent of the
   payment for each report would be due upon your written agreement of
   these terms (and the start of our work) while the remaining half would
   be due upon delivery within the deadlines you have given. While we will
   provide you with a formal proposal next Monday for your signature,
   written confirmation of these terms will suffice in the meantime in
   order to get the reports to you by when needed. Please let me know if
   these terms are agreeable as soon as possible.

   Scott McHugh wrote:
   &gt; Fred,
   &gt;
   &gt; Candidate #1 (Need report in @ 2 weeks):  
   &gt;
   &gt; Purpose of the research: We are seeking a check on the candidate from
   a
   &gt; character, integrity, ethics and honesty perspective and also want to
   &gt; gain any available insight into the candidates personality and
   &gt; leadership style to assess whether or not the candidate will be able
   to
   &gt; fit into the Walmart culture.  
   &gt;  
   &gt; Name: PER BANK:
   &gt;
   &gt; Unknown DPOB but based upon the resume it may be Denmark @ 1968
   &gt;
   &gt; Residence: Markskellet 20
   &gt;                      Hilleroed 3400
   &gt;                      Denmark
   &gt; Telephone:  +45 4386 4386
   &gt;
   &gt; Education: University of Odense, Denmark and University of Bournemouth
   &gt; in Bournemouth, UK:  Degree in Manufacturing Engineering (1992)      
   &gt;
   &gt; Currently (since 3/09) Employed by TESCO PLC, Hertfordshiire, UK
   &gt; Previous Employer (2001-2009): COOP DANMARK, Albertslund, Denmark
   &gt; Previous (2001-2001) MASTERFOODS, Copenhagen, Denmark
   &gt; 1998-2000: INWEAR GROUP
   &gt; 1992-1998: DANFOSS
   &gt; 1986-1988: Danish Army- First Lieutenant
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt; CANDIDATE # 3 (Need report in @ 3 weeks)
   &gt; Purpose of the research: We are seeking a check on the candidate from
   a
   &gt; character, integrity, ethics and honesty perspective and also want to
   &gt; gain any available insight into the candidates personality and
   &gt; leadership style to assess whether or not the candidate will be able
   to
   &gt; fit into the Walmart culture.
   &gt;
   &gt; Name:        CONROY, Avril M. MCIM        
   &gt; DPOB:        March 30th, 1968, Ireland
   &gt; Status:         Married with 2 children
   &gt; Telephone:        +7916 1754556
   &gt;
   &gt; EDUCATION
   &gt; 1980 - 1986        Our Lady's Bower, Athlone Co. Westmeath, IRELAND
   &gt; *        Intermediate Certificate - 1984
   &gt; *        Leaving Certificate - 1986 (HONORS)
   &gt; *        Kellogg Sales and Marketing 2005
   &gt; *        Insead World Class Leadership 2006
   &gt; *        Full Member of Chartered Institute of Marketing 2009
   &gt;
   &gt; Sept 2008- present Performance Unit Leader Central Russia
   &gt; TNK-Management.
   &gt;
   &gt; Feb 2008- Sept 2008 Director of Brand and Marketing TNK-BP Management.
   &gt;
   &gt; April 2005-Feb 2008 General Director BP Retail Moscow
   &gt;
   &gt; April 2001- 2005 BP Retail Moscow, Operations Manager
   &gt;         
   &gt; June 1998 - Jan 2001  BP Retail Moscow, Shops Network Manager
   &gt;         
   &gt; February 1997 - May 1998  Nesco LTD.  Moscow
   &gt; Nesco was a leading food distributor in Russia and part of the MKS
   group
   &gt; in Cyprus.          
   &gt;         
   &gt; July 1994 - August 1997    Irlasto  plc        Moscow
   &gt;         Irlasto plc is an Irish retailing specialist involved in a
   &gt; number of diversified operations in Moscow.
   &gt;
   &gt; August 1992 - July 1994        Heatons Ltd.        Ireland
   &gt;         Heatons Ltd. is a major Irish retailing chain with twenty shops
   &gt; nationwide, whose principal areas of business are fashion and
   homecare.
   &gt; *        Store Manager with particular responsibility for establishing
   &gt; new outlets.
   &gt;
   &gt; March 1984 - August 1992        Dunnes Stores Ltd.        Ireland
   &gt;
   &gt; -----Original Message-----
   &gt; From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   &gt; Sent: Friday, April 16, 2010 8:09 AM
   &gt; To: Scott McHugh
   &gt; Subject: names
   &gt;
   &gt; Hello Scott,
   &gt;
   &gt; Can I get the names of the two folks we discussed yesterday?
   &gt;
   &gt; Thanks, Fred
   &gt; -----------------------------------------
   &gt; **********************************************************************
   &gt; This email and any files transmitted with it are confidential and
   &gt; intended solely for the individual or entity to whom they are
   &gt; addressed. If you have received this email in error destroy it
   &gt; immediately.
   &gt; **********************************************************************
   &gt; Walmart Confidential
   &gt; **********************************************************************
   &gt;  
</description>
    <date>2010-04-17 00:53:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/383068_re-names20-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>383267</id>
    <title>Re: Athens and Welch killing
</title>
    <description>   In a message dated 4/17/2011 1:32:56 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
   burton@stratfor.com writes:

     Scott,

     I've heard from a pretty good Agency source that Welch was set up by an
     Embassy FSN. 

     Have you ever heard that?

     Thanks much, Fred

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   Fred,
    
   No, and I worked with the task force chasing them.  It was a sub group
   under Mike Freeman...
    
   Scott
</description>
    <date>2011-04-23 03:22:51</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-03 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/383267_re-athens-and-welch-killing-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Trippsb@aol.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>383383</id>
    <title>R: Bruno Breguet
</title>
    <description>Good question. I did some research on it but its still a mystery. let me to=
 reopen my file. best

________________________________________
Da: Fred Burton [burton@stratfor.com]
Inviato: luned=EC 30 maggio 2011 17.40
A: Olimpio Guido
Oggetto: Bruno Breguet

Guido --

Bruno Breguet, a Swiss pro-Palestinian revolutionary, disappeared in
1995 on a ferry from Italy bound for Greece.   He was close to Carlos
the Jackal and Magdalena Kopp.

Who grabbed or killed him?

Thanks, Fred=
</description>
    <date>2011-05-30 18:06:51</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-05 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/383383_r-bruno-breguet-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>GOlimpio@rcs.it</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>383433</id>
    <title>Re: On Carlos the Jackal &amp; Wadi Haddad
</title>
    <description>   On the contrary to what many people believe, Mossad is not assasinating
   people that easy. Even the most recent incident in Dubai was an accident,
   they tried to bring the victim to Israel and exchange him with the Israeli
   soldier in Iranian's custody.

   Bruno was picked up by an Israeli navy commando and brought to a friendly
   port in the Medditeranean. There he was picked up by a team with two white
   vans to an unknown destination. The agents were americans. There were
   rummors that he was taken to a CIA secret site and he died during the
   interogation. I personally  believe that he is living under a new identity
   somewhere in South America. I left the Navy in 96 and have not heard about
   him since then. I can try to find out more on him if you are interested.

   Best regards, David

   Sent from my NorAm portable Galaxy(c)

   David Dafinoiu
   President

   NorAm Intelligence

   Mobile: 646-678-2905
   david@dafinoiu.com
   dd@noramintel.com
   http://noramintel.com

   On Jun 15, 2011 1:48 PM, "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-06-15 21:39:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-16 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/383433_re-on-carlos-the-jackal-and-wadi-haddad-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>david@dafinoiu.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>383506</id>
    <title>TrapWire (TW)
</title>
    <description>Chatted with Mike M, the TW operator and former CIA crony.

He said our feed was taking up 25% of the TW screens inside the client command posts and that the feedback they are getting is that the info being pushed in is more geo-pol centered vice tactical-security.  

How can we fix?  Who is auditing what is going in the pipe?

Thanks

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2010-09-23 01:31:17</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/383506_trapwire-tw-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>rbaker@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>oconnor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anya.alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bbronder@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>383561</id>
    <title>Re: [Fwd: [CT] NYC new surveillance cameras]
</title>
    <description>   Dan,

   Connected with LAPD. Good call. Horace suggested the security director for
   MGM Grand.

   Regards, Fred

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "R. Daniel Botsch" &lt;dan.botsch@abraxasapps.com&gt;
   Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2010 16:34:50 -0400
   To: Michael Maness&lt;michael.maness@abraxasapps.com&gt;; Fred
   Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: RE: [Fwd: [CT] NYC new surveillance cameras]

   Mike and Fred,

      If I understand the question correctly, the answer is that the systems
   are connected.   We have regional networks in which information sharing is
   limited to that network.  If a network has 25 sites, those 25 sites match
   against each other's reports.  They can also send reports to any other
   site on the network and they can post reports to a network-wide bulletin
   board.  Sites cannot share information across networks. 

    

      However, we do cross-network matching here at the office.  If we see
   cross-network matches, we will contact each affected site, explain that
   the individual(s) or vehicle they reported has been seen on another
   network, and then offer to put the affected sites into direct contact.  We
   have not yet had a cross-network match.  I think over time the different
   networks will begin to unite.  I'm not exactly being prescient here, as
   there is already talk in Vegas and LA of combining their two networks. 
   Same here in DC.   Let me know if this helps or if you need further
   clarification.

    

   Thanks, Dan

    

   From: Michael Maness
   Sent: Wednesday, September 22, 2010 2:11 PM
   To: Fred Burton
   Cc: R. Daniel Botsch
   Subject: RE: [Fwd: [CT] NYC new surveillance cameras]

    

   Both: Some clients are already linked, and others can be if they choose.

   With TrapWire all our clients feed a centralized database, so they are in
   affect linked.

   Several of our clients have also agreed to share the entirety of their SAR
   reporting with certain other clients where it makes sense (i.e. all the
   casinos in Vegas share with each other; private and public sector clients
   in LA share with one another; etc.)

    

   Dan: Can you give some more examples of data sharing between clients?

    

   -----Original Message-----
   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, September 22, 2010 12:59 PM
   To: Michael Maness
   Subject: Re: [Fwd: [CT] NYC new surveillance cameras]

    

   Reasonable to say the systems are linked or can be linked?  Which is more
   accurate?  Thanks

    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   NOTICE: This email message and all attachments transmitted with it are
   intended solely for the use of the addressees and may contain legally
   privileged, protected or confidential information. If you have received
   this message in error, please notify the sender immediately by email reply
   and please delete this message from your computer and destroy any copies.
</description>
    <date>2010-09-23 17:36:35</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/383561_re-fwd-ct-nyc-new-surveillance-cameras-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.maness@abraxasapps.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>dan.botsch@abraxasapps.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>383617</id>
    <title>FW: DPS &amp; TrapWire
</title>
    <description>From what I've heard, Trapwire is just one little line item and only worth
$250K (cap buildings) from what you list below.  The bulk of the money
will be spent for horses for mounted patrol, new cameras, ops center,
magnetometers, etc.  Too bad they can't allocate actually 1.5 to Trapwire.
The only two proposals Mike has on the books is the 250K and another 300K
for the DPS HQ which is stalled. 

-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
Sent: Friday, February 12, 2010 2:00 PM
To: Patrick Boykin
Subject: DPS &amp; TrapWire

We've got 1.5 from the grant, but need another 1.8 to do it right.

** DPS has obtained another 1.8 million for more TrapWire.  Funding has
been approved.
</description>
    <date>2010-02-12 21:29:32</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/383617_fw-dps-and-trapwire-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>patrick.boykin@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>383752</id>
    <title>Re: Touching Base
</title>
    <description>How about next Friday?

------Original Message------
From: Blake Sawyer
To: Fred Burton
Subject: RE: Touching Base
Sent: May 7, 2010 9:20 AM

Fed,

Great to hear from you... Just finished up the "exemption" letter for
Trapwire.  As you know, they have just completed the site survey and the
ball is rolling.  I'm staying busy and have a "site visit" with Exxon in
two weeks.  I'll keep you posted.  In the meantime, let's get Stephen
and Todd downtown for lunch, possibly late next week.  

Take care,

Blake

-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
Sent: Thursday, May 06, 2010 9:34 PM
To: Sawyer, Blake
Subject: Touching Base

Blake, Just touching base to see how you are doing?  Hope all is well.
Fred
</description>
    <date>2010-05-07 20:13:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/383752_re-touching-base-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Blake.Sawyer@txdps.state.tx.us</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>383885</id>
    <title>Re: Obama Should Credit Bush for Terror Successes
</title>
    <description>   Very well put, but he won't!

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "KesslerRonald@gmail.com" &lt;KesslerRonald@gmail.com&gt;
   Date: Wed, 26 May 2010 08:42:16 -0400
   To: Ronald Kessler&lt;kesslerronald@gmail.com&gt;
   Subject: Obama Should Credit Bush for Terror Successes

   Obama Should Credit Bush for Terror Successes

Newsmax

                 Obama Should Credit Bush for Terror Successes

   Wednesday, May 26, 2010 08:18 AM

   By: Ronald Kessler

   In his speech at West Point, President Obama claimed credit for having had
   *more success in eliminating al-Qaida leaders in recent months than in
   recent years.*

   It was Obama*s usual effort to knock the Bush administration, either
   explicitly or implicitly. But as is so often the case, his comparison was
   misleading.

   While more al-Qaida leaders have indeed been killed by Predator drones
   this year than in previous years, the primary reason is that President
   Bush was farsighted enough to order a threefold increase in the number of
   drones.

   Since it takes several years to increase production and install
   remote-control facilities, the benefits of Bush*s decision are only now
   showing up.

   While Obama deserves credit for continuing the Predator strikes, Bush kept
   us safe for eight years and made the current success possible by
   transforming the way the war on terror is fought.

   Aside from the increase in drones, Bush made the FBI more
   prevention-oriented. He established the National Counterterrorism Center
   in McLean, Va., where 200 analysts from the CIA and FBI sit side by side
   analyzing threats 24 hours a day.

   Secure video conferences three times a day include representatives from
   all parts of the intelligence community and the White House, analyzing
   threats and parceling out leads.

   Bush*s Patriot Act tore down the so-called wall that Attorney General
   Janet Reno imposed, a wall that prevented FBI agents from sharing
   information with each other and with the CIA.

   The act allowed the FBI to wiretap terrorists, regardless of what phones
   they happen to use, as the FBI already did in organized crime cases.

   For all the talk about Bush excesses, the fact is that no abuse * meaning
   an illegal act for political or improper purposes * has been found.

   Obama knows Bush is responsible for the current success.

   For Obama, it is standard operating procedure to deny credit or,
   conversely, to blame others.

   In a press conference with Mexican president Felipe Calderon, Obama
   recently cited a Mexican proverb: *Tell me who you walk with, and I will
   tell you who you are.*

   For 20 years, Obama listened to the Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr. and his
   paranoid blame-America accusations, never acknowledging how far the
   country has come when it comes to promoting equality.

   As with the man Obama walked with for 20 years and considered his mentor,
   playing the blame game and denying credit is part of Obama*s character.

   Ronald Kessler is chief Washington correspondent of Newsmax.com. View his
   previous reports and get his dispatches sent to you free via e-mail. Go
   here now.*
   --
   www.RonaldKessler.com
</description>
    <date>2010-05-26 14:55:46</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-23 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/383885_re-obama-should-credit-bush-for-terror-successes-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>KesslerRonald@gmail.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>384025</id>
    <title>Re: SA Gregg Geerdes - UltraMarathon effort
</title>
    <description>   Good work on the metal detectors! TrapWire moving?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Sawyer, Blake" &lt;Blake.Sawyer@txdps.state.tx.us&gt;
   Date: Sat, 22 May 2010 08:59:47 -0500
   To: &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: SA Gregg Geerdes - UltraMarathon effort
   Awesome.. He'll get support from my family.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: Sawyer, Blake
   Sent: Fri May 21 19:11:15 2010
   Subject: SA Gregg Geerdes - UltraMarathon effort
    

   The Diplomatic Security Foundation (DSF) is pleased to announce an
   exciting partnership between DSF and Diplomatic Security SA Gregg Geerdes:

   Gregg is participating in this year's Badwater Ultramarathon. Recognized
   globally as "the world's toughest foot race," this legendary event pits up
   to 90 of the world's toughest athletes, runners, tri-athletes, adventure
   racers, and mountaineers against one another and the elements. Covering
   135 miles (217km) non-stop from Death Valley to Mt. Whitney, CA in
   temperatures up to 130F (55c), it is the most demanding and extreme
   running race offered anywhere on the planet.  To make the most of his
   challenge, Gregg has designated the Diplomatic Security Foundation (DSF)
   as his charity. To date, more than $3,000 in donations have come into DSF
   on behalf of Gregg from those who are inspired by his efforts. If you too
   would like to support this monumental feat, or learn more about Gregg,
   please visit the DSF website today to make a donation:
   http://www.dsfoundation.org/howtodonate/gregggeerdeschallenge.html

    

   (For more info about the race, see the Badwater website:
   www.badwater.com.)

    
   Have a Great Week !
</description>
    <date>2010-05-22 16:06:28</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/384025_re-sa-gregg-geerdes-ultramarathon-effort-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Blake.Sawyer@txdps.state.tx.us</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>384066</id>
    <title>Re: IMMEDIATE UPDATE: Bomb Squad Investigating Suspicious Package Downtown - Austin, TX
</title>
    <description>   Thx

   Should review TrapWire video to see if he has walked around the Mansion or
   Capital complex...

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Sawyer, Blake" &lt;Blake.Sawyer@txdps.state.tx.us&gt;
   Date: Fri, 14 May 2010 12:44:16 -0500
   To: &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: RE: IMMEDIATE UPDATE: Bomb Squad Investigating Suspicious Package
   Downtown - Austin, TX

   nut

    

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, May 14, 2010 12:44 PM
   To: Sawyer, Blake
   Subject: Re: IMMEDIATE UPDATE: Bomb Squad Investigating Suspicious Package
   Downtown - Austin, TX

    

   Suspect a jihadi or nut?

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Sawyer, Blake" &lt;Blake.Sawyer@txdps.state.tx.us&gt;

   Date: Fri, 14 May 2010 12:36:38 -0500

   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;

   Subject: FW: IMMEDIATE UPDATE: Bomb Squad Investigating Suspicious Package
   Downtown - Austin, TX

    

    

    

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: TXDPSIntelCenter
   To: TXDPSIntelCenter; Duncan, Clifford; Fischer, Heidi; Ivy, Brenda;
   LeCrone, Jeremy; McInnis, Charles; Nunez, Patricia; Pagel, Lori; Quinney,
   Lexi; Sanders, Wanda; Schwab, Stacey; Stolle, Phyllis; Subia, Patty;
   Wilks, Donald; Armistead, David; Avant, Dale; Baker, David; Beckworth,
   Lamar; Bensman, Todd; Bodisch, Robert; Colley, Jack; Daniel Hodge
   &lt;Daniel.hodge@oag.state.tx.us&gt;; Fulton, Billy; Gonzalez, Luis; Grigsby,
   Aaron; Groves, Lee; Hearn, Skylor; Jones, Jaeson; Jones, John; Leal, Tony
   (Chief Ranger's); McCraw, Steven; Meiners, Stephen; Nabors, Billy; Ortiz,
   Jose; Rable, Brad; Rodriguez, Jose III (Reg.Commander); Ruocco, Thomas;
   Theresa Whelan &lt;Theresa.Whelan@osd.mil&gt;; Webster, Jack; Wilson, L C; C.C.
   Magruder &lt;c.magruder@ic.fbi.gov&gt;; Chris Dishman
   &lt;Christopher.dishman@dhs.gov&gt;; David Trachtenberg
   &lt;david.trachtenberg@tdcj.state.tx.us&gt;; Dolieslager, Montgomery; Fowler,
   Melvin; John Hall &lt;John.L.Hall@dhs.gov&gt;; Kimberly Shirley
   &lt;Kimberly.shirley@hq.dhs.gov&gt;; Larry McLendon &lt;larry.mclendon@dhs.gov&gt;;
   Melissa Hodgson &lt;melissa.hodgson@tdcj.state.tx.us&gt;; Monty Dolieslager
   &lt;monty.dolieslager@fincen.gov&gt;; Ray, Lisa; Inabinet, Mark; Sungino,
   Victoria; Herchek, Amy; Randel, Sheila; Becker, Teresa; Buchanan, Alice;
   Burroughs, Susan; Cistone, Cassandra; Eason, Tara; Fabry, Kristin; Ging,
   Teresa; Schramm, Melanie; Barrera, Cassi; Carranza, Edna; Elizondo,
   Juanita; Giesalhart, Sheila; Howard, Joanne; Lewis, Karen; Lewis, Stella;
   Lindsay, Pam; Martinez, Rosanne; McNiel, Becky; Montedonico, Carol; Moore,
   Dianne; Palin, Lucinda; Peterson, Lauren; Zuniga, Victor; Bredl, JoAnn;
   Fisher, Erika; Fowler, Courtney; Hyatt, Julie; Masch, Carol; Muna, Ashley;
   Nesby, Vicky; O'Connor, Ryan; Pruitt, Norma; Ralston, Kerry; Rodriguez,
   Cathy; Thomas, Bridgette; Wiggins, Lisa; Crick, Paula; Hall, Tony;
   Hendley, Karin; Howell, Beth; Kendrick, Sandra; Schlaffer, Amanda;
   Brewster, Sandra; Daza, Jason; Holdren, Jodie; Marshall, Jeff; Unnasch,
   Adam; Berns, Aaron; Brantley, Brenda; Darity, Tina; Fafrak, Susan;
   Frerich, Kayla; Miller, Kendra; Oetting, Javier; O'Hern, Emily; Randecker,
   Tracy; Salinas, Leara; Taylor, Katy; Truong, Hanh; Vancil, Amanda; Borden,
   Carrie; Burse, Melinda; Cable, Rebecca; Coomes, Ann; Ferrales, Cherye;
   Gaxiola, Maggie; Girdner, Aaron; Schamber, Bradley; Sosa, Armando; Walsh,
   Charlene; Ward, Marion; Welborn, Diann; Britsch, Anastasia; Flores, Eva
   (Narcotics); Fowler, Cindy; Kinnibrugh, Darla; Miears, Jennifer; Mitchel,
   Keith; Thomas, Jullia; Torri, Thomas; Williams, Kathryn
   Cc: Ray, Lisa; Grigsby, Aaron; Alexis, Alvin; Dendy, Kirby; Morales, Jose
   (Major); Thompson, Tim; Pratt, Christopher
   Sent: Fri May 14 11:44:46 2010
   Subject: IMMEDIATE UPDATE: Bomb Squad Investigating Suspicious Package
   Downtown - Austin, TX

   Immediate update from JTTF. There is an EXPLOSIVE COMPONENT found in the
   package. Subject has made explosive devices in the past and he is IN
   CUSTODY. JTTF is continuing the investigation.

    

   Texas Department of Public Safety - KAM  

   Intelligence and Counterterrorism Division

   TEXAS FUSION CENTER

   Phone: (512) 424-7981

   Fax: (512) 424-7418

   txfusion@txdps.state.tx.us

    

   CONFIDENTIAL NOTICE: This is a CONFIDENTIAL LAW ENFORCEMENT COMMUNICATION.
   DO NOT disseminate, distribute, use or copy this communications if you
   have received this message in error and/or are not the intended recipient.
   DESTROY all copies of the original and contact the sender by reply e-mail
   or by calling the Texas Fusion Center toll free at 1-866-786-5972.

   From: TXDPSIntelCenter
   Sent: Friday, May 14, 2010 11:38 AM
   Cc: Ray, Lisa; Grigsby, Aaron; Alexis, Alvin; Dendy, Kirby; Morales, Jose
   (Major); Thompson, Tim
   Subject: FINAL REPORT: Bomb Squad Investigating Suspicious Package
   Downtown - Austin, TX

    

   CID - Austin conducted follow up on report of a suspicious package at the
   Gault Building in Austin. The package was left in the pre-trial court by a
   known subject. Person was observed leaving the package and was taken into
   custody outside of the building. An officer of the court opened the
   package which revealed a letter. Further investigation is being completed
   on the package by JTTF. ICT is providing subject work up.

    

    

   Texas Department of Public Safety - KAM  

   Intelligence and Counterterrorism Division

   TEXAS FUSION CENTER

   Phone: (512) 424-7981

   Fax: (512) 424-7418

   txfusion@txdps.state.tx.us

    

   CONFIDENTIAL NOTICE: This is a CONFIDENTIAL LAW ENFORCEMENT COMMUNICATION.
   DO NOT disseminate, distribute, use or copy this communications if you
   have received this message in error and/or are not the intended recipient.
   DESTROY all copies of the original and contact the sender by reply e-mail
   or by calling the Texas Fusion Center toll free at 1-866-786-5972.

    

   Title:               Suspicious package incites downtown evac

   Location:        Austin, Texas            

    

   MMC CIR #3: Identifying events with operational value...corroborating
   critical information.

    

   Excerpt from News Article:

   The Gault building at the Travis County Justice Center in downtown Austin
   is being evacuated due to a suspicious package, according to Travis County
   Dispatch.

    

   The mandatory evacuation came around 10 a.m. and Austin police said the
   bomb squad is on the scene. Meanwhile, the Travis County Justice Center is
   on lockdown.

    

   The Austin Police Department and Travis County Sheriff's Office are
   investigating.

    

   Source:

   KXAN

   http://www.kxan.com/dpp/news/local/gault-building-evacuation-in-progress

    
</description>
    <date>2010-05-14 19:46:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/384066_re-immediate-update-bomb-squad-investigating-suspicious.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Blake.Sawyer@txdps.state.tx.us</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>384492</id>
    <title>Re: [DSonlineforum] Alledged Leak of 260,000 Classified and Sensitive State Department Cables
</title>
    <description>   Geez...
   What was his motive?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Posillico, Michael" &lt;PosillicoM2@state.gov&gt;
   Date: Tue, 8 Jun 2010 20:38:23 -0400
   To: &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [DSonlineforum] Alledged Leak of 260,000 Classified and
   Sensitive State Department Cables
   If they were only State documenrs it would not be so bad.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: Posillico, Michael
   Sent: Tue Jun 08 19:35:10 2010
   Subject: Fw: [DSonlineforum] Alledged Leak of 260,000 Classified and
   Sensitive State Department Cables

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Brent Barker &lt;barkerbso@yahoo.com&gt;
   Date: Tue, 8 Jun 2010 16:13:16 -0700 (PDT)
   To: DSonlineforum@yahoogroups.com&lt;DSonlineforum@yahoogroups.com&gt;
   Subject: [DSonlineforum] Alledged Leak of 260,000 Classified and Sensitive
   State Department Cables
    

    
   Mike,
    

   The Pentagon has launched an intensive investigation of a 22-year-old Army
   intelligence analyst named Bradley Manning, who claims to have been the
   source of the video leak earlier this year of the 2007 U.S. helicopter
   attack that killed two Reuters employees in Iraq.

    Manning claims to have downloaded 260,000 diplomatic cables from U.S.
   government computer networks containing classified and embarrassing
   material such as American diplomats' very candid assessments of foreign
   leaders, mainly in the Middle East.

   The LA Times
    
   http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2010/06/oil-spill-cable-spill-secrets.html 
    
   Also in The Daily Beast, entitled "The State Department's Worst
   Nightmare."
    
   http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-06-08/state-department-anxious-about-diplomatic-secrets-bradley-manning-allegedly-downloaded/

   __._,_.___
   Reply to sender | Reply to group | Reply via web post | Start a New Topic
   Messages in this topic (1)
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</description>
    <date>2010-06-09 02:40:38</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 03:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/384492_re-dsonlineforum-alledged-leak-of-260-000-classified-and.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>PosillicoM2@state.gov</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>384733</id>
    <title>Re: Web query
</title>
    <description>   I've never heard of him but checking other records.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@abraxasapps.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2010 19:26:26 -0400
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Web query

   Fred -- Have received couple queries from this guy for marketing
   collateral on TrapWire etc. I usually ignore this loose cannon requests,
   but this guy keeps citing STRATFOR as a contact. Do you know him?

    

   From: Radu Chirculescu [mailto:chircu2k@yahoo.co.uk]
   Sent: Thursday, October 21, 2010 6:16 PM
   To: Michael Maness
   Subject: Re: Your request for information on TrapWire
   Importance: High

    

       Dear Mr. Maness,

          I find very important to build and keep an constant bridge between
   Romania and it's ally, especially regarding security matters by keeping in
   mind the current geopolitics. We will inform you about our NGO's future
   evolution (CRES &amp; CCPB) and if possible we will desire to attend to any
   open and public presentations about your products in the UK and/or United
   States. As soon as all the aspects will be clear I will inform you and
   Stratfor about our current status.

       For thousands years history did not gave us(Romania) too much rest and
   peace and the current global situation proves it once more.        
       Best regards,

       Radu Chirculescu
       Bucharest, ROMANIA

    

   -----Original Message-----

   From: info@abraxasapps.com [mailto:info@abraxasapps.com]

   Sent: Thursday, October 21, 2010 5:52 PM

   To: abraxasapps.com Info Request

   Cc: marketing@abraxasapps.com

   Subject: Web site inquiry

    

   First Name - Radu

   Last Name - Chirculescu

   Title - Mr

   Company - ngo to be developed

   Street Address - Luterana 1 Ap.47

   City - Bucharest

   State - Ilfov

   Zip/Postal Code - 010161

   Country - Romania

   Work Email - chircu2k@yahoo.co.uk

   Phone - 0040721717447

    

   Referred by -

   Stratfor. I will develop the Romanian Center for Ethics and Strategies and
   The Center for Research and Protection against Bioterrorism. The current
   status is legal registering approval. In 2 weeks to be accomplished.
   Therefor we would need info for products to be used and presented in the
   close future. Best regards, Radu Chirculescu.

    

   I am interested in: Corporate Brochure, TrapWire Brochure, TrapWire Demo,
   CFATS Brochure, SAW Brochure, DDER Brochure, Please Contact Me

    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   NOTICE: This email message and all attachments transmitted with it are
   intended solely for the use of the addressees and may contain legally
   privileged, protected or confidential information. If you have received
   this message in error, please notify the sender immediately by email reply
   and please delete this message from your computer and destroy any copies.
</description>
    <date>2010-10-22 01:42:12</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/384733_re-web-query-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.maness@abraxasapps.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>385135</id>
    <title>STAFF - ICJB coordinators/board
</title>
    <description>   Shana Ortman and Claire Rosenfeld are the US coordinators for ICJB.

   http://www.studentsforbhopal.org/node/57
   Advisory Board
   The Students for Bhopal Advisory Board is the national leadership body for
   SfB, representing the North American grassroots supporters of the
   International Campaign for Justice in Bhopal. Composed of approximately 7
   volunteer members as well as the US staff member of ICJB, the Advisory
   Board coordinates the actions, projects, and initiatives undertaken by
   ICJB/SfB in North America.

   Who is on the Advisory Board?
   Shana Blustein Ortman
   U.S. Coordinator, International Campaign for Justice in Bhopal; SfB
   Advisory Board Member
   Shana has worked on social and environmental justice for the past 10
   years, and she is extremely moved and inspired by the struggle for Justice
   in Bhopal.  Before becoming the U.S. Coordinator for ICJB in April 2008,
   she spent nearly four years at ForestEthics, where she was the Lead
   Organizer on the Paper Campaign.  Her work focused on leadership
   development and creating grassroots organizing for a campaign that is
   transforming the catalog industry and protecting Endangered Forests. Most
   notably, in 2006, they won the Victoria's Dirty Secret campaign, a three
   year campaign that included over 750 grassroots actions across North
   America.  Shana got her B.A. in Humanities, with a focus on Children's
   Literature and Social Change from New College of California in 2005.  She
   also spent two years studying Anthropology at Grinnell College, where she
   was very involved with student activism for environmental justice and
   human rights.   

   Claire Rosenfeld
   U.S. Coordinator, International Campaign for Justice in Bhopal; SfB
   Advisory Board Member

   Claire got involved with ICJB when she spent a week in July/2008 at the
   Sambhavna Trust Clinic in Bhopal.  She interned over summer with Shana at
   ICJB in San Francisco and organized the hugely successful curry cook-off
   fundraiser. Claire earned her B.A. in Cultural Studies and Foreign
   Languages (Spanish, Hindi) at the Evergreen State College in Olympia, WA.
   As part of the advisory board, she hopes to collaborate with groups
   committed to resolving the ongoing tragedy and provide her own insight
   about the direction of the campaign in North America. She brings her
   strong belief that corporate profit should never come at the price of
   human lives.

   Tony Millard
   SfB Advisory Board Member
   Tony graduated from the Northwestern University Medill School of
   Journalism in 2006, and he is currently working as a producer, writer and
   editor for an XM satellite medical radio station called ReachMD. In his
   first year on the AB, he helped to coordinate our extensive media campaign
   throughout the entire 2008 Padyatra, which included frequent press
   releases and outreach to news and information outlets across a variety of
   mediums throughout the United States.

   Having volunteered at the Sambhavna Clinic in Bhopal for most of a year
   spanning parts of 2006 and 2007, he hasa firm, first-hand perspective of
   the situation on the ground in Bhopal. From Sambhavna to the dilapidated
   factory, to Oriya Basti and Hamidia Hospital, to the oft-protested home of
   the chief minister of Madhya Pradesh in Shamla Hills, his knowledge of
   Bhopal is a benefit to our strategizing and planning actions here in the
   United States. This applies particularly from the standpoint of
   communicating to others the extent of the devastation across Bhopal, but
   more importantly, the spirit of the Bhopalis who continue to fight for
   Justice.

   Diana Katgara
   SfB Advisory Board Member
   Diana had the chance to spend some time in Bhopal and get to know a number
   of people there. These people who are strong, brillliant, loving,
   creative, inspirational, funny, musical, articulate, insightful, caring,
   full of hope and who will never ever give up fighting for justice for
   themselves and fighting to ensure that what has happened to Bhopalis
   doesn't happen to others have become an important part of her life.
   &amp;#8232;&amp;#8232;The grave injustices that have happened and continue to
   happen in Bhopal are unacceptable. From December 3rd, 1984 onwards
   Bhopalies have witnessed the horrors of losing their loved ones and
   continue to be lied to and cheated out of effective health care, clean
   water, safety against deadly poisons, the ability to earn, the right not
   to have to feed babies contaminated breast milk, just to name a few
   things. And yet, they continue to have hope and love and show care to
   eachother and those of us who ask if we can stand alongside them. They
   continue to have hope and trust that the world will not let this injustice
   continue.&amp;#8232;&amp;#8232;Over the last year and a half she hasseen the
   creative and meaningful ways that the SfB has supported the Bhopal
   Campaign in the US and she thinks it would be great to bring some of that
   over to Canada.

   Yogesh Simmhan
   SfB Advisory Board Member
   Yogesh brings his passion for justice to the Advisory Board--he hopes to
   improve the lives of Bhopalis, and fight corporate greed and government
   apathy. Co-founder of AID at the Indiana University, Bloomington, Yogesh
   organized all Bhopal-related events at his university from 2003-2007
   including vigils, protests, panel discussions with Ryan Bodyani and Rajan
   Sharma, and a Bhopal photo exhibit. Additionally, he has worked with
   Amnesty International in picketing a talk by Dow CEO Andrew Liveris in
   Indianapolis.   In 2006 he helped host the Students for Bhopal conference
   in Bloomington. Yogesh has experience in letter writing, media management,
   and event organizing. He sees the approaching 25th anniversary of the gas
   tragedy as an important opportunity: "The looming 25th  anniversary is a
   crucial juncture for our campaign and SfB needs all the support possible
   to mobilize across the US. This is the time for everyone associated with
   the campaign to stand up and be counted, and I'm answering this call."

   Ellen Shifrin
   SFB Advisory Board Member
   A former professor and administer, Ellen has strong communication and
   organizational skills.   Her involvement with the campaign for justice in
   Bhopal began in 2008, but she was involved with Amnesty International for
   many years.   She has been invited to table at the UN Association of
   Canada, Toronto event on Water and the AI Business&amp;Human Rights
   conference, The Case for Water as a Human Right.   Having traveled to the
   subcontinent eight times, Ellen is looking forward to combining her
   deep-rooted passions for human rights and India.
   Why do you believe in justice for Bhopal?
   "Bhopal serves not only as a situation in itself, but also as a model for
   people in other places fighting the same type of violations. There are so
   many levels on which to work for justice in Bhopal - human and
   environmental rights, politics, economics, and the human spirit. So
   because Bhopal will always be with us in one way or another, because the
   fight of the gas and water-affected people is wholly non-violent, because
   the spirit of the survivors is so strong--all these are reasons why I want
   to be part of the Advisory Board, why I want to be more involved, and why
   I feel it's such an important cause to be whole-heartedly committed to."

    

    

    

   Leonid Chindelevitch
   SFB Advisory Board Member

   After being involved with the Bhopal campaign for 3 years at the local
   level and gained experience in activities ranging from making banners and
   folding my body in the shape of various letters to preparing budget
   requests and coordinating the chapter's activities, Leonid has taken the
   next step of joining the campaign's Advisory Board. He expects to make
   significant contribution to SfB by organizing fundraising events,
   recruiting new members to the campaign and contacting the media. In
   addition, he hopes to bring new insights into campaign strategies on the
   25th anniversary of the Bhopal disaster.

    

   Interested in joining the Advisory Board?
   In the fall there are Advisory Board nominations for positions that last
   for one year.  Occasionally there are openings during other parts of the
   year.  Email shana@panna.org to learn more.

    

    

   Past Members of the Advisory Board
   Pragya Bhagat (2007-09)

   Association for India's Development, Austin

   Aqueue Freechild (2004-2009)

   US Strategy Coordinator, ICJB

   Daniel Yeow (2007-08)

   Amnesty International, Columbia University

   Raghav Kaushik (2006-2007)

   Ryan Bodyani (2004-2007)

   Student Coordinator, ICJB
</description>
    <date>2010-12-23 19:49:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/385135_staff-icjb-coordinators-board-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>morson@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mongoven@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>morson@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>defeo@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>pubpolblog.post@blogger.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>385196</id>
    <title>Fw: Army intel analyst arrested in Wikileaks video Probe
</title>
    <description>272</description>
    <date>2010-06-07 18:35:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 23:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/385196_fw-army-intel-analyst-arrested-in-wikileaks-video-probe-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>PosillicoM2@state.gov</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/13/13219_envelope.gif</path><size>83</size><md5></md5><sha1>fe39528024a1fd8274a3f75f67c61f36e9264143</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/33/33382_Brad-Manning-Out-of-Uniform.jpg</path><size>45835</size><md5></md5><sha1>f53fb46f8b085aa9808f688436687de6cb83d896</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/33/33383_Brad-Manning-in-uniform.jpg</path><size>39889</size><md5></md5><sha1>f6ef43d05aef023ecfedf8fcba15dfce5c644c8c</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/33/33385_adrian_1-300x200.jpg</path><size>13531</size><md5></md5><sha1>653bf21cdf7b966605c712775725739149b07569</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>385387</id>
    <title>Fw: Wikileaks founder currently in the U.S.
</title>
    <description>     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Shane Harris &lt;shanewharris@gmail.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2010 12:10:45 -0400
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Wikileaks founder currently in the U.S.

   He's speaking on a panel today in Vegas.*
   http://data.nicar.org/conference/lasvegas10/showcase*

   --
   Shane Harris
   www.shaneharris.com
   202-489-4827 (mobile)
   202-862-3513 (office)
   Twitter: shanewharris
   Read THE WATCHERS: www.shaneharris.com/thewatchers
</description>
    <date>2010-06-11 18:11:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 23:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/385387_fw-wikileaks-founder-currently-in-the-u-s-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>385427</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] CYPRUS/US/RUSSIA - Cypriot authorities searching spysuspect's laptop
</title>
    <description>   We had the Cypriot service on our payroll for years. I don't know who
   currently owns them. Highest bidder no doubt. We would not need the
   original, just first generation.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: ct-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Mon, 5 Jul 2010 11:09:11 -0500 (CDT)
   To: CT AOR&lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [CT] CYPRUS/US/RUSSIA - Cypriot authorities searching spy
   suspect's laptop
   Yes, the issue is whether or not the Cypriots hand over the gear to the
   US. 

   Fred Burton wrote:

 I doubt they have the forensic capabilities to handle looking for
 inbeded messages.  The real question is will the Russians or US conduct
 the exams?


 Kristen Cooper wrote:
  

 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/05/AR2010070501301.html


   Cypriot authorities searching spy suspect's laptop

 By MENELAOS HADJICOSTIS
 The Associated Press
 Monday, July 5, 2010; 10:55 AM

 NICOSIA, Cyprus -- Cyprus police are searching the contents of a
 confiscated laptop belonging to an alleged Russian spy who has vanished,
 the east Mediterranean island's justice minister said on Monday.

 Loucas Louca says U.S. authorities have requested the laptop and "more
 than one" USB memory stick belonging to 54-year-old Christopher Metsos.

 Louca said the laptop and USB memory sticks were confiscated on June 29
 when Metsos was arrested trying to board a flight to Budapest, Hungary.
 The items were not returned to Metsos after a Cyprus court released him
 on $33,000 bail on June 30, after which he promptly disappeared.

 Metsos is wanted in the U.S. on charges that he supplied money to a spy
 ring that operated under deep cover in the suburbs. He arrived in Cyprus
 June on 17, traveling on a Canadian passport.

 The minister said the search is part of routine procedure to determine
 whether the laptop contains information relevant to the case, legally
 enabling Cypriot authorities to turn the laptop and memory sticks over
 to U.S. authorities.

 Cyprus Attorney General Petros Clerides will decide whether the
 retrieved information warrants the laptop's transfer to U.S.
 authorities, Louca said.

 "We have no reason to keep the laptop if the Attorney General decides
 so," Louca told the Associated Press.

 The minister said that Canada's ambassador to Greece and Cyprus, Renata
 E. Wielgosz, confirmed that the passport Metsos was using is genuine,
 but said it was obtained using the identity of a boy who died at the age
 of 5.

 Cyprus President Dimitris Christofias said Metsos has likely fled the
 island.

 Metsos' disappearance deeply embarrassed Cyprus authorities. But
 Christofias deflected U.S. Justice department criticism, saying U.S.
 authorities were slow in providing certain documents to Cypriot police.

 Louca said he has asked for a report detailing events surrounding
 Metsos' disappearance.

    

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com


   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   Office: +1 512-279-9479
   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-07-05 18:11:34</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-14 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/385427_re-ct-cyprus-us-russia-cypriot-authorities-searching.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>385469</id>
    <title>=?Windows-1252?B?UmU6IFtDVF1bT1NdIElDRUxBTkQvVVMvTUlMIC0gVmljdG9yeSBmb3IgV2lraUxlYWtzIGluIEljZWxhbmSScyBQYXJsaWFtZW50?=
</title>
    <description>   Until an Icelander is beheaded by a jihadi...

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2010 13:07:57 -0500
   To: CT AOR&lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [CT] [OS] ICELAND/US/MIL - Victory for WikiL eaks in
   Iceland's Parliament
   Note the analysis at the very bottom, this won't keep people like
   Wikileaks protected, but it will help. 

   Daniel Ben-Nun wrote:

                 Victory for WikiLeaks in Iceland's Parliament

     By ROBERT MACKEY

     An Al Jazeera English video report explained the Icelandic Modern Media
     Initiative in March.

     At 4 a.m. on Thursday, at the end of an all-night session, Iceland's
     Parliament, the Althing, voted unanimously in favor of a package of
     legislation aimed at making the country a haven for freedom of
     expression by offering legal protection to whistle-blower Web sites like
     WikiLeaks, which helped to craft the proposal.

     As the Web site Ice News reports, "One of the inspirations for the
     proposal was the dramatic August 2009 gagging of of Iceland's national
     broadcaster, RUV by Iceland's then largest bank, Kaupthing."

     One of the sponsors of the proposal in the Althing, Birgitta Jonsdottir,
     told my colleague Noam Cohen in February that Iceland hoped to become
     "the inverse of a tax haven," by offering journalists and publishers
     some of the most aggressive protections for free speech and
     investigative journalism in the world. "They are trying to make
     everything opaque," she said. "We are trying to make it transparent."

     As Mr. Cohen explained in an article on the package of laws that passed
     on Thursday:

         The proposal, the Icelandic Modern Media Initiative, combines in a
     single piece of legislation provisions from around the world:
     whistle-blower laws and rules about Internet providers from the United
     States; source protection laws from Belgium; freedom of information laws
     from Estonia and Scotland, among others; and New York State's law to
     counteract "libel tourism," the practice of suing in courts, like
     Britain's, where journalists have the hardest time prevailing. [...]

         The plan to make Iceland a world leader in journalism protection
     took shape in December with the assistance of two leaders of the
     whistle-blower Web site WikiLeaks.org, Julian Assange and Daniel
     Schmitt, whose publish-nearly-anything ideology has given them personal
     experience with news media laws around the globe.

     On Tuesday, Philip Shenon of The Daily Beast reported that Mr. Assange
     had told supporters that the site would soon release another video of an
     American military strike that killed civilians:

         After several days underground, the founder of the secretive Web
     site WikiLeaks has gone public to disclose that he is preparing to
     release a classified Pentagon video of a U.S. airstrike in Afghanistan
     last year that left as many as 140 civilians dead, most of them children
     and teenagers.

         In an e-mail message obtained by The Daily Beast that was sent to
     WikiLeaks supporters in the United States Tuesday, Julian Assange, the
     Web site's Australian-born founder, also defends a 22-year-old Army
     intelligence specialist who is now under arrest in Kuwait on charges
     that he leaked classified Pentagon combat videos, as well as 260,000
     State Department cables, to WikiLeaks.

     It is not yet clear how much help the new legislation will provide to
     foreign journalists trying to shield themselves behind Icelandic law. As
     the Nieman Journalism Lab notes:
         In his analysis of the proposal - "Fortress Iceland? Probably Not."
     - Arthur Bright of the Citizen Media Law Project has noted that in one
     major test case of cross-border online libel law, "publication" was
     deemed to occur at the point of download - meaning that serving a
     controversial page from Iceland won't keep you from getting sued in
     other countries. But if nothing else, it would probably prevent your
     servers from being forcibly shut down.
     Monroe Price, who runs a program in comparative media law at the
     University of Oxford, told The Independent in London, "As an exercise in
     aspirations, it's a bold and important endeavor." But, he added, "if
     it's a significant issue like a national security question, then the
     charging jurisdiction will figure out ways of asserting its power."

     --
     Daniel Ben-Nun
     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-06-17 20:10:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/385469_-windows-1252-b.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>385505</id>
    <title>Info - Causes of DHS/TSA Dysfunction 
</title>
    <description>** From a senior agent at DHS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------


For your consumption only:  it is a combination of inadequate leadership, lack of expertise, extreme politics and lousy procedures/equipment coupled with a forced rush to do something/anything yesterday, no matter how ineffective.

Another issue is that DHS in general has too many contractors whose first interest is furthering their company's interests, and many of these folks couldn't find their bottoms with both hands and a mirror.  Unfortunately, the few direct hire staff end up overwhelmed by their contractor majority staffs.

Contractor footnote:  have observed that the contractors are extremely adept at showing up at meetings in large numbers, eating the donuts and drinking the beverages without contributing anything more than body count.

Director told me that he has difficulties with all of the academic types who have jumped onto the counterterrorism bandwagon.  They do some things very well, no question, but many times they are untimely (ever look at UofM's START terrorism database?) and don't answer the "so what" question; sortta like ending up with everything you ever want to know about something that is irrelevant.  Or, as we used to say: some of the national labs are marketing solutions for problems that we didn't have = "so what."


Sounds jaundiced and there are surely some well meaning TSA folks out there somewhere, but my assessment is that they are in the minority.  Just wait until DHS moves 14,000 employees to the old St. Elizabeth Hospital site in SE Washington, and then maybe they will learn some real transportation security methodology.
</description>
    <date>2010-12-28 15:43:12</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-21 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/385505_info-causes-of-dhs-tsa-dysfunction-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>385949</id>
    <title>Re:
</title>
    <description>Agree, we just met with Dr. Litton and have some good advice.  More to follow.

------Original Message------
From: George Friedman
To: Scott Stewart
To: 'George Friedman'
To: Fred Burton
ReplyTo: friedman@att.blackberry.net
Subject: Re:
Sent: Jan 28, 2010 4:47 PM

We could try but it wouldn't work. 

Not worried about the blowback as much as you guys are. This will mature the team when it blows. A lot more care will emerge. 
------Original Message------
From: scott stewart
To: 'George Friedman'
To: Fred Burton
Subject: RE:
Sent: Jan 28, 2010 4:23 PM

Copy. Is there any way we can begin to separate here from the rest of the
company? Cause her to  do her projects on her own from home?



Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2010-01-29 00:14:47</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/385949_re-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>386178</id>
    <title>Re: Close-Hold
</title>
    <description>   Not sure when it will be announced, but he's the guy. I'm pretty sure
   capitol will move out of ICT and become its own division.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: burton@stratfor.com &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: Sawyer, Blake
   Sent: Tue Jan 26 20:46:48 2010
   Subject: Re: Close-Hold

   Is Joe now in charge of Capital security?

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Sawyer, Blake" &lt;Blake.Sawyer@txdps.state.tx.us&gt;
   Date: Tue, 26 Jan 2010 20:18:17 -0600
   To: &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Close-Hold

   Good advice and I will... I'll help Joe Ortiz behind the scenes on the
   purpose of principle and genuine concern for people's safety. As of COB
   today, however, I have not been asked to do anything in the way of
   security except get cost estimates for Dke - I have a few things that I
   will send you tomorrow from a different account.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: Sawyer, Blake
   Sent: Tue Jan 26 20:01:47 2010
   Subject: RE: Close-Hold

   Now that the ball is in your court, you need to CYA, in case a random
   jihadi or lunatic walks in w/an AK-47. 
    
   Turn the heat up. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sawyer, Blake [mailto:Blake.Sawyer@txdps.state.tx.us]
   Sent: Tuesday, January 26, 2010 5:48 PM
   To: burton@stratfor.com
   Subject: Re: Close-Hold

   Only thing  so far is a meeting with sen williams on thurs.  Will be
   interesting to see what is discussed at the commission mtg on friday. 
   Grant was turned in yesterday, so it looks like that money will get used.
   I'll keep you posted.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: burton@stratfor.com &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: Sawyer, Blake
   Sent: Tue Jan 26 17:06:03 2010
   Subject: Re: Close-Hold

   Any movement?

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   -----Original Message-----
   From: "Sawyer, Blake" &lt;Blake.Sawyer@txdps.state.tx.us&gt;
   Date: Mon, 25 Jan 2010 09:44:09
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: RE: Close-Hold

   Nope... I've submitted my recommendations with a heavy emphasis on
   TRAPWIRE and 100% digital CCTV upgrades for the entire Capitol, but have
   been told that all recommendations will be passed up to the
   legislature/committees for a decision. As long as DPS is charged with
   securing a public building without "owning" any of the physical
   systems/hardware OR the ability to implement critical security measures
   without the approval of an arguing, indecisive body of untrained,
   self-proclaimed, security experts, I fear the public and the stakeholders
   in the complex will remain soft targets for domestic violence and acts of
   terrorism.

    

   -----Original Message-----
   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Monday, January 25, 2010 9:27 AM
   To: Sawyer, Blake
   Subject: Re: Close-Hold

   Any traction?

   Sawyer, Blake wrote:
   &gt; Sir,
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; Sent this email out this morning....
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; *From:* Sawyer, Blake
   &gt; *Sent:* Friday, January 22, 2010 9:19 AM
   &gt; *To:* Bodisch, Robert; Jones, John
   &gt; *Cc:* McCraw, Steven; Beckworth, Lamar
   &gt; *Subject:* REC/SECURITY EST - CAPITOL
   &gt; *Importance:* High
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; Sir,
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; *I.                    **_TRAPWIRE (Initial deployment/install
   &gt; $252,000.00 - Annual Recurring Fee $151,000)_*
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 1)      These prices are tied to the GSA Schedule, which means they will
   &gt; not change with CONUS deployments of TRAPWIRE.  Only thing that would
   &gt; increase the price at this point would increasing the number of
   &gt; trainees.  Given what happened yesterday, I would think the Capitol
   &gt; would want to train as many people as possible. They have two courses:
   &gt; TPOP for security professionals (this is the course I attended with 50
   &gt; Troopers / SO's) and a two hour TPOC course for non-security
   &gt; professionals (i.e. vendors, groundskeepers, others who work in/around
   &gt; the complex). This second course is a two-hour class designed to
   &gt; sensitize attendees to terrorist/criminal surveillance techniques, but
   &gt; doesn't delve as deeply into case studies and other sensitive areas.
   &gt;  It's also offered in full Spanish.
   &gt;
   &gt; 2)      In the event we are querried re. who else is using the system,
   &gt; we can start with something general like "Several major city police
   &gt; departments and one overseas government".  If we are pressed for
   &gt; specifics, we can advise them that Nevada Counterterrorism Center in Las
   &gt; Vegas under Tom Monahan is a client, although we can't disclose any of
   &gt; the specific casinos that are linked in (more than 60 right now).
   &gt;
   &gt; 3)      It would also help, I think, to advise them that LAPD (Commander
   &gt; Joan McNamara) is a client and advocate of the system.  This is
   &gt; important b/c she is the driving force behind the SAR initiative being
   &gt; run with all the major city police chiefs and TRAPWIRE's role therein.
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; .         We can't openly disclose other major clients that I'll brief
   &gt; you on personally.
   &gt;
   &gt; .         They have initiated a new training program for LE and Security
   &gt; professionals to use when confronting suspicious individuals.
   &gt; Specifically, how do you elicit intelligence and detect deception in a
   &gt; non-threatening and legal manner.  This course will be customized
   &gt; specifically for Texas state law and will be available in March. All
   &gt; training courses run about $300 per head.
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; *II.                  **_CAMERAS/SERVERS/RECORDERS ($427,000.00)_*
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 1)      Recommend upgrade of all existing cameras and associated
   &gt; equipment to 100% digital.  This will involve replacing many of the
   &gt; existing "legacy" cameras, while linking in all that we can into the new
   &gt; system.
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 2)      Recommend upgrading all existing cameras (about 130) to Sony
   &gt; high speed dome cameras w/ 540 lines resolution or better or equivalent.
   &gt; (Sony model # CD55NV-36S is ideal for indoor/outdoor applications and
   &gt; run $1K each).  Existing cameras are divided b/w 1992, 1996, and 2001
   &gt; models with a few newer replacements  (but poor quality) units.  In
   &gt; order to cover the dead space inside and outside the building, we need
   &gt; 125 additional cameras.  Why?  Because currently we only have good
   &gt; coverage on the great walk on the southside and the bollards to the
   &gt; north.  Everything else is dead space and covering the grates/windows
   &gt; with cameras is much more economical than wiring them shut.  All of the
   &gt; new cameras will need CAT-5 run to them which runs approx $1 per foot to
   &gt; install.
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; Total Cost of Recommended Cameras: $255K
   &gt;
   &gt; Total Est Cost of New Camera Labor (est. 300'+ ft per camera): $78K
   &gt;
   &gt; Total Est Cost of New Servers (3 Total): $24K (Recommend DELL Quad Core
   &gt; Xeon Server E5450 or equivalent from another company. These run $8K each
   &gt; and we need two on ops and a backup).
   &gt;
   &gt; Total Est Cost of New NVR's (2 Total) w/ 25T of Storage: $20K
   &gt;
   &gt; Total Est Cost of New Monitors: $15K
   &gt;
   &gt; Total Est Cost Monitoring Software: $35K
   &gt;
   &gt; Grand Est Total: $427,000.00
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; *III.                **METAL DETECTORS/CARD SCAN ACCESS POINTS/BASEMENT
   &gt; - TUNNEL TURNSTYLES (in original proposal) *
   &gt;
   &gt; *IV.                **MASS NOTIFICATION SYSTEM (Reney has
   &gt; numbers/details on this)*
   &gt;
   &gt; *V.                  **WirelessWerx 911 Nodes (Proposal due into me by
   &gt; noon today) *
   &gt;
   &gt; * *
   &gt;
   &gt; * *
   &gt;
   &gt; *I'll have additional data available NLT noon today.*
   &gt;
   &gt; * *
   &gt;
   &gt; *S/F,*
   &gt;
   &gt; * *
   &gt;
   &gt; *Blake*
   &gt;
   &gt; * *
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; 
   &gt;
   &gt; ------------------------------------------------------------------------
   &gt;
   &gt; NOTICE: This email message and all attachments transmitted with it are
   &gt; intended solely for the use of the addressees and may contain legally
   &gt; privileged, protected or confidential information. If you have received
   &gt; this message in error, please notify the sender immediately by email
   &gt; reply and please delete this message from your computer and destroy any
   &gt; copies.
   &gt;
</description>
    <date>2010-01-27 03:58:37</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/386178_re-close-hold-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Blake.Sawyer@txdps.state.tx.us</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>386254</id>
    <title>Re:
</title>
    <description>There is a tremendous learning opportunity about trust, source vetting, fabricators and deception operations.

------Original Message------
From: George Friedman
To: Scott Stewart
To: 'George Friedman'
To: Fred Burton
ReplyTo: friedman@att.blackberry.net
Subject: Re:
Sent: Jan 28, 2010 4:47 PM

We could try but it wouldn't work. 

Not worried about the blowback as much as you guys are. This will mature the team when it blows. A lot more care will emerge. 
------Original Message------
From: scott stewart
To: 'George Friedman'
To: Fred Burton
Subject: RE:
Sent: Jan 28, 2010 4:23 PM

Copy. Is there any way we can begin to separate here from the rest of the
company? Cause her to  do her projects on her own from home?



Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2010-01-29 00:23:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/386254_re-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>386477</id>
    <title>Re: Fwd: Manning &amp; Wiki Founder Arrest/Prosecution?
</title>
    <description>   Emre:

   We cannot source the comment specifically to the FBI, but can say a
   reliable Stratfor source reports.....

   Fry means pay severely for his actions in the intel lingo.

   I think Manning could get the death penalty. Depends if the DOD goes after
   him for espionage vice unauthorized disclosure.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Emre Dogru &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 3 Dec 2010 02:37:05 -0600 (CST)
   To: burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Confederation&lt;confed@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Fwd: Manning &amp; Wiki Founder Arrest/Prosecution?
   Hey Fred, one of our confed partners (Sabah daily) would like to use this
   information without any attribution. But he just wonders if your source
   used "fry" in the sense that Manning should be executed by electrocution,
   or does it mean something else in intel business lingo?
   Thanks

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;, "TACTICAL"
   &lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, December 2, 2010 8:16:14 PM
   Subject: Manning &amp; Wiki Founder Arrest/Prosecution?

   &gt;From a very senior man @ the FBI -- (not for attribution to the FBI pls)

   ------------------------------------------------------------------

   There is no way the administration wants to put him on trial.  That
   would be a huge circus.  Manning should fry and hopefully will

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-03 14:50:05</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/386477_re-fwd-manning-and-wiki-founder-arrest-prosecution-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>confed@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>386855</id>
    <title>RE: TrapWire
</title>
    <description>Not yet.  We are within 30 days.  I will have a login by tomorrow so I can
show you guys what it will look like.

-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
Sent: Thursday, November 05, 2009 9:28 AM
To: 'Patrick Boykin'
Subject: RE: TrapWire

Hopefully, it would generate some business.  Are we up and running on
their
systems now? 

-----Original Message-----
From: Patrick Boykin [mailto:patrick.boykin@stratfor.com] 
Sent: Thursday, November 05, 2009 9:27 AM
To: burton@stratfor.com
Subject: RE: TrapWire

No need.  They already saw it are very appreciative. I received thank
you's
from Dan Botsch and Mike.



-----Original Message-----
From: burton@stratfor.com [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
Sent: Wednesday, November 04, 2009 5:27 PM
To: Patrick Boykin
Subject: TrapWire

Patrick, You may want to let Mike know I plugged TrapWire in our weekly
that
has gone out to thousands.  Thanks Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2009-11-05 16:39:12</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/386855_re-trapwire-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>patrick.boykin@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>386876</id>
    <title>Re: FRACK - W.Va. eyes fluid disclosure; quote from Lachelt
</title>
    <description>   I don't know.  Threaten the fluids' profitability, and they'll make more
   money By leaving the US market.   At least that is what I thought.

   On Mar 8, 2010, at 6:22 PM, Kathleen Morson &lt;morson@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

     did we ever figure out who looses when nat gas companies agree to
     disclose frack fluid ingredients?  halliburton of course -- what are the
     others?   why does rex not care?

     ----- Original Message -----
     From: "Joseph de Feo" &lt;defeo@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: mongoven@stratfor.com, morson@stratfor.com, defeo@stratfor.com,
     "pubpolblog post" &lt;pubpolblog.post@blogger.com&gt;
     Sent: Monday, March 8, 2010 3:14:40 PM GMT -08:00 US/Canada Pacific
     Subject: FRACK - W.Va. eyes fluid disclosure; quote from Lachelt

     Lachelt raises the example of an Alabama requirement that coalbed
     methane extraction use a toxic-free freshwater process as evidence that
     industry could do better.

     ---
     http://www.wvobserver.com/2010/03/house-bill-eyes-shale-gas-drilling/
     The Observer | House Bill Eyes Shale Gas Drilling
     3 March 2010

     by Glenn Scherer

     The rush to tap vast natural gas reserves trapped in the Marcellus Shale
     bedrock underlying rural West Virginia, Pennsylvania, New York, and Ohio
     has led to a heated regional debate concerning the safety of a
     controversial drilling process known as a**fracking,a** or natural gas
     hydraulic fracturing. Legislation introduced in the West Virginia House
     by Delegate Tim Manchin, D-Marion, would begin to regulate the large
     volume of water withdrawn for drilling and fracturing. It would also
     require drilling companies to identify the contents of potentially
     polluting frac fluids, and set up a system for tracking the disposal of
     those fluids.

     Fracking, combined with horizontal drilling, is a process by which
     millions of gallons of water, mixed with a brew of chemicals and sand,
     are pumped thousands of feet underground, then forced sideways for as
     much as a mile, shattering bedrock strata, and thereby releasing natural
     gas impounded there. High-end estimates say that there may be more than
     500 trillion cubic feet of natural gas locked up in the Marcellus Shale,
     enough to supply the entire United States for two years. The value of
     the gas could be as high as $1 trillion.

     Fracking in shale, say public health advocates, differs from traditional
     petroleum fracking. The oil industry has been using freshwater for
     decades offshore without concerns of chemical contamination of
     groundwater.

     At issue are safety claims made by the drilling industry, as compared to
     a growing number of citizen complaints about polluted air, poisoned
     drinking water, dead livestock, and an industrial infrastructure
     inappropriate to rural and suburban landscapes. Fracking damage has been
     reported in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, Texas, Alabama, Arkansas,
     Louisiana, New Mexico, Kansas, Colorado, Montana, Virginia, Washington,
     and Wyoming.

     In September 2009, for example, in Dimmick, Pennsylvania an 8,000-gallon
     gas drilling wastewater spill involving toxic frack chemicals caused a
     major fish kill in Stephens Creek. Also in Dimmick last year, a home
     drinking water well exploded after it was contaminated by methane from a
     fracking operation. In 2007, a home blew up near Cleveland, Ohio, when
     it was infiltrated by methane from a fracked natural gas well.

     A catastrophic fish kill that wiped out all life on a 30-mile stretch of
     pristine Dunkard Creek on the West Virginia-Pennsylvania border has also
     raised questions about fracking safety. Though officials are still
     uncertain as to the disastera**s cause, one source under investigation
     is the improper disposal of contaminated frack wastewater.

     Other U.S. communities have reported fracking problems. Last year, the
     air above the little town of DISH Texas (pop. 181) turned so foul that
     officials used one sixth of the annual municipal budget to fund an air
     quality study. Findings showed that local air seriously violated state
     carcinogenic and neurotoxin safety standards. Fumes are reportedly
     rising from natural gas wells, compressors, condensate tanks and
     pipelines a** part of massive fracking operations there, says the Denton
     Record-Chronicle.

     In Louisiana, also last year, 16 cattle died after a**apparently
     drinking from mysterious fluid adjacent to a natural gas drilling
     rig,a** according to  the Shreveport Times. In 2008, in Hill County,
     Texas, three landowners found their pristine drinking water wells
     polluted with sulfates and toluenea**a gasoline additive and solvent
     toxic to humans and animals. All three properties are adjacent to
     fracking wells, reports the Fort Worth Weekly.

     The potential for harm from fracking is not yet known. The concern is
     that frack water, polluted with toxins, is left underground and could
     over the years rise through strata to contaminate groundwater. The
     problem, environmental advocates say, is that neither industry nor
     government has done any long-term studies. What is known is that
     aquifers once polluted are nearly impossible to clean up.

     Other worries center around the millions of gallons of flowback water
     that do return to the surface at each well, which must be treated as
     hazardous waste because it contains toxic fracking chemicals, plus
     toxins leached from bedrock such as benzene and radioactive materials.
     Open pits, used to store wastewater, can leak into groundwater and also
     cause air pollution. Toxic wastewater either must be trucked to already
     overtaxed waste treatment plants for cleanup, or injected back
     underground.

     Finally, there are concerns about the pressures that the fracking
     infrastructure places on communities. The tens of thousands of new
     fracking wells planned for the Marcellus Shale will need acres each for
     well pads, plus land for noisy air-polluting compressors, wastewater
     tanks and pits, and miles of pipeline (which may leak) and new roads.
     Rural homeowners who abut drilling sites compare the foul air and
     constant roar of compressors to living in an industrial zone.

     Oil and Gas Accountability Project Director Gwen Lachelt thinks the
     industry isna**t looking hard enough for solutions, and notes for
     example that offshore fracking wells, and coalbed methane wells in
     Alabama are required to use a**freshwater fracka** when drilling, a
     process that is free of toxic chemicals. a**So why doesna**t industry
     use freshwater frack in shale drilling?a** she asks. a**The industry has
     armies of engineers and scientists. I have all the faith in the world in
     them that they can develop fracturing fluids that are not harmful to
     public health and wildlife.a**

     Fracking worries have resulted in a push in West Virginia, Pennsylvania,
     New York and Ohio to strengthen state safeguards regarding fracking
     operations. In Pennsylvania, a statewide debate is ongoing whether to
     allow further expansion of natural gas drilling on state forestlands.

     The West Virginia bill, should it become law, would give public-health
     advocates what theya**ve been asking for, and what industry has been so
     far unwilling to provide: a table of contents about what is in the
     fracking fluids. The Bush administration had exempted fracking from the
     Safe Drinking Water Act, allowing industry to guard fracking fluids as
     trade secrets. Without a list of those chemicals, states and citizens
     cannot know what toxins to test for in potentially contaminated drinking
     water. This so-called Halliburton Loophole especially benefited Dick
     Cheneya**s former employer Halliburton, inventor of the fracking
     process.

     Some in Congress want to pass the FRAC Act (the Fracturing
     Responsibility and Awareness of Chemicals Bill; S.1215, and H.R. 2766),
     requiring drilling companies to make fracking chemicals public, and
     allowing EPA to set fracking minimum standards for states to enforce.
     The economic downturn has dimmed likelihood of FRAC Act passage this
     year.

     Still, many in the natural gas industry resist revealing secret frack
     chemicals. a**It is much like asking Coca-Cola to disclose the formula
     of Coke,a** said Ron Heyden, a Halliburton executive, in testimony
     before the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission in 2008.

     Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson speaking at a January 2010 congressional hearing
     concerning the $41 billion merger of Exxon with XTO Energy (one of the
     worlda**s biggest natural gas drilling companies), said he could support
     revealing toxic frack mixes. He added that, by combining the hydraulic
     fracturing and horizontal drilling processes a**we can now find and
     produce unconventional natural gas supplies miles below the surface in a
     safe, efficient and environmentally responsible manner.a** Exxon has
     threatened to nix its XTO acquisition if Congress makes fracking
     a**illegal or commercially impractical.a**

     At press time, Del. Manchina**s bill was moving toward a vote in the
     House. Senate passage remains uncertain.

     A(c) 2010 www.blueridgepress.com
</description>
    <date>2010-03-09 00:33:32</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/386876_re-frack-w-va-eyes-fluid-disclosure-quote-from-lachelt-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>morson@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>defeo@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mongoven@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>pubpolblog.post@blogger.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>386972</id>
    <title>Re: Fw: J Dead.  Game on.
</title>
    <description>   Spy round up was linked to J's death. Was an effort to shake the trees
   looking for leads to the killer. It also explains why the swap happened so
   quickly.

   May make a better tearline for next week?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Kyle Rhodes &lt;kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2010 11:06:58 -0500
   To: &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Fw: J Dead. Game on.
   10-4

   You mentioned that we have some intel on this that we can't release yet -
   any word on if/when we can release the intel? Would it be something pretty
   juicy in the media's eyes? I assume it's something to do with his death
   being not-so-natural...

   Fred Burton wrote:

     Kyle, I can handle any Comrade J interviews but would need flexibility.
     I'm balancing off site meetings and deadlines on forms for my publisher.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: Fri, 9 Jul 2010 16:03:21 +0000
     To: Sean Noonan&lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;;
     Tactical&lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: burton@stratfor.com
     Subject: Re: J Dead. Game on.
     FBI told the widow (PROTECT) that foul play has been ruled out.

     She doesn't believe it.

     Nor does JJ or Pete Earley.

     But it also explains why the group was swapped so quickly AFTER the
     group was rolled up so quickly.

     The last point I will be able to nail down.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2010 09:57:51 -0500
     To: Tactical&lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: J Dead. Game on.
     yep.  we won't know for awhile, if ever. 

     scott stewart wrote:

       Could be. It is hard to tell. Everything in this area is purposefully
       muddied up by both sides.

        

        

        

       From: Sean Noonan [mailto:sean.noonan@stratfor.com]
       Sent: Friday, July 09, 2010 10:30 AM
       To: anya.alfano@stratfor.com
       Cc: Korena Zucha; Tactical Group; Fred Burton
       Subject: Re: J Dead. Game on.

        

       I'm beginning to wonder if this is all a series of mistakes.  Maybe
       FBI flipped out when Tret died  and went after these guys, but didn't
       really know what they were doing.  That would explain the quick trade,
       just as well as a failed 'shaking of trees'

       devil's advocate thinking

       Anya Alfano wrote:

       True. And maybe he was murdered in a way that made it look natural?
       All the good spy stuff. It is strange that jj mentions that the
       toxicology still isn't back. Long time for a high priority case. We
       knew what Michael Jackson died of in a week

       Anya Alfano
       STRATFOR

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;

       Date: Fri, 9 Jul 2010 09:17:17 -0500 (CDT)

       To: &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;

       Cc: Sean Noonan&lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;; Tactical
       Group&lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;

       Subject: Re: J Dead. Game on.

        

       He did have a history of high blood pressure. Would be awfully big
       coincidence though.

       Anya Alfano wrote:

       Might be her choice. Maybe she just wants the whole mess to disappear,
       especially now that it's killed her husband. Maybe she thinks she's
       next if she says too much more?

       Anya Alfano
       STRATFOR

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;

       Date: Fri, 9 Jul 2010 09:06:22 -0500 (CDT)

       To: Sean Noonan&lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;

       Cc: Tactical&lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;

       Subject: Re: J Dead. Game on.

        

       Would the US govt have an interest in making everyone believe (and
       pressuring Helen go along with it) that J died of natural causes if
       that wasn't the case?

       Sean Noonan wrote:

       http://www.wtop.com/?nid=25&amp;sid=1999036

 --

 Sean Noonan

 Tactical Analyst

 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

 www.stratfor.com

  

  

 --

 Sean Noonan

 Tactical Analyst

 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

 www.stratfor.com

  

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

  

 --
 Kyle Rhodes
 Public Relations Manager
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com

 kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com
 +1.512.744.4309
 www.twitter.com/stratfor
 www.facebook.com/stratfor
</description>
    <date>2010-07-09 18:10:56</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/386972_re-fw-j-dead-game-on-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>brian.genchur@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>386973</id>
    <title>Re: CORP - Amazon Watch: Chevron Lawyers Going After Doc Film CRUDE for Daring to Reveal Truth in Ecuador
</title>
    <description>   They've got to know something.  They're unlikely to win and if they do, it
   will be controvercial, so it better be good.  I would, if I were them,
   hope for the film to be burned after the subpoena filed.
   On the other hand, they could lose and have some damning footage in hand
   that they will show after the judge rules against them.  The plaintiffs
   would be dumb to raise the stakes, and it's unlikely that they won't.    

   On Apr 26, 2010, at 5:21 PM, Joseph de Feo &lt;defeo@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

     I hope Chevron has a cunning plan up its sleeve.
     ---
     http://www.chevroninecuador.com/2010/04/chevron-lawyers-going-after-doc-film.html?utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ChevronInEcuador+%28Chevron+in+Ecuador%29
     Chevron in Ecuador: Chevron Lawyers Going After Doc Film CRUDE for
     Daring to Reveal Truth in Ecuador | Monday, April 26, 2010

     In a move that somehow simultaneously combines unbelievable hubris with
     pathetic desperation, Chevron has filed a motion to subpoena some 600
     hours of footage shot by acclaimed filmmaker Joe Berlinger during the
     making of his award-winning documentary film Crude.

     On April 9th, Chevron filed a motion for discovery, asking the federal
     court in NY to allow the company to serve Berlinger a subpoena for "all
     of the 'Crude' footage that was shot, acquired, or licensed in
     connection with the the movie 'Crude'."

     Crude, which premiered at the 2009 Sundance Film Festival and opened in
     theaters across the U.S. last fall, tells the story of the 17-year long
     legal battle between Chevron and 30,000 indigenous and campesino
     residents of Ecuador's Amazon ravaged by oil drilling by Texaco (now
     Chevron).

     Attorneys for Crude director Joe Berlinger filed a motion on Friday to
     oppose Chevron's request for the footage. Maura Wogan, attorney for
     Berlinger and his production company said that they will "vigorously
     oppose Chevrona**s attempt to get to these materials." Lawyers for both
     sides will appear in court for a hearing on the matter this Friday,
     April 30th in federal court in New York.

     In a press release, Berlinger said:

       "Documentary filmmakers play an essential role in exposing social
       injustice. As with traditional journalists, their sources must be
       protected or we risk the demise of this kind of comprehensive
       investigative reporting."

     Today, Berlinger, who has frequently explored themes of crime,
     punishment, and justice in his influential documentaries, told The New
     York Times, "I would equally be resisting a subpoena from the
     plaintiffs."

     Quite simply, this is a case of Chevron harassing an acclaimed filmmaker
     for merely training his lens upon the company's legacy in the Amazon. It
     surely has the intended affect of intimidating other journalists who may
     turn their attention to Chevron's massive oil contamination in Ecuador.

     Chevron and its high-powered lawyers at international corporate law
     behemoth Gibson Dunn are surely also hoping to mine the footage for any
     material that they might find useful for their relentless public
     relations schemes to try to discredit the plaintiffs, their attorney's
     and the courts in Ecuador.

     But regardless of Chevron's motivation, Maura Wogan of Frankfurt Kurnit,
     the lawyers for Mr. Berlinger and his production company, says Berlinger
     is protected under what is known as journalist's or reporter's
     privilege.

     Ms. Wogan:

       "Unused film footage and other editorial materials from Crude are
       protected by the journalista**s privilege under federal law and the
       First Amendment."

     Chevron's latest legal maneuver is another example of the desperate and
     abusive lengths the company will goa** and the resources it's willing to
     commita** to evade responsibility for its oil pollution in Ecuador. This
     move adds insult to injury for the thousands of people in Ecuador's
     rainforest region who continue to suffer the impacts of the oil giant's
     pollution in their communities.

     a** Han

     Han Shan is the Coordinator of Amazon Watch's Clean Up Ecuador Campaign.
</description>
    <date>2010-04-27 00:43:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-21 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/386973_re-corp-amazon-watch-chevron-lawyers-going-after-doc-film.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>morson@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>defeo@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mongoven@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>pubpolblog.post@blogger.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>387213</id>
    <title>Re: FW: the letter
</title>
    <description>Wonder if they tried to pull up "HMRShippingUK.net".  Game over....

On 2/12/2010 3:24 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt; Have the Indians also been invited to the party?
&gt;
&gt; scott stewart wrote:
&gt;   
&gt;&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt;&gt; From: Peter Zeihan [mailto:zeihan@stratfor.com] 
&gt;&gt; Sent: Friday, February 12, 2010 3:17 PM
&gt;&gt; To: scott stewart
&gt;&gt; Subject: the letter
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; ------------------------------------------------------------------------
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Subject:
&gt;&gt; Re: Hello my friends
&gt;&gt; From:
&gt;&gt; "Marko Papic" &lt;mpapic@gmail.com&gt;
&gt;&gt; Date:
&gt;&gt; Thu, 11 Feb 2010 20:39:17 -0500
&gt;&gt; To:
&gt;&gt; &lt;L.A.Anderson@hmrshippinguk.net&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; To:
&gt;&gt; &lt;L.A.Anderson@hmrshippinguk.net&gt;
&gt;&gt; CC:
&gt;&gt; &lt;cooper.a.kristen@gmail.com&gt;, &lt;peter.zeihan@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Hey Andrew,
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Thank you for your email.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; What are you thinking about? And for how many people? The latter makes a
&gt;&gt; difference since if we invite a large number of people from Stratfor, we
&gt;&gt; would want to make it accessible and relatively work-hour related (so
&gt;&gt; happy hour -- unfortunately as lame as that sounds -- would have to do).
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Alternatively, if you are thinking of something more private and
&gt;&gt; low-key, we could plan for a nice dinner somewhere, or perhaps even
&gt;&gt; better a lunch.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; That said, if we want to really give Lauren something that she (and all
&gt;&gt; of us) would enjoy... how about going and doing something fun... like
&gt;&gt; paintball. Lauren is always talking about how she would kick everyone's
&gt;&gt; ass in paintball. Well... what better way to celebrate her birthday then
&gt;&gt; to let her kill all of us (with paint of course... of course, just
&gt;&gt; paint...).
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; We could also think of some sort of an event on Town Lake.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; I can help you out with these ideas. Just note that I am on vacation in
&gt;&gt; Taos between the 11th and 22nd of March. I will be here for March 23rd
&gt;&gt; -- which I believe is her birthday -- but I will miss the weekend that
&gt;&gt; preceeds it.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Cheers,
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Marko
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; On Thu, Feb 11, 2010 at 9:51 AM, L. Andrew Anderson
&gt;&gt; &lt;L.A.Anderson@hmrshippinguk.net &lt;mailto:L.A.Anderson@hmrshippinguk.net&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; wrote:
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;     Hello Kristen, Marko and Peter,
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;     I apologize for this contact without a proper introduction of such
&gt;&gt;     correspondence. But I understand from Lauren that you would not take
&gt;&gt;     affront to such a gesture.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;     My contact has purpose in that I hope to work with your
&gt;&gt;     “Strat-clique” on plans for Ella’s 30th birthday. I have attempted
&gt;&gt;     to contact Miss Reva, but she must have overlooked my communications.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;     Lauren and I had originally planned on celebrating her Pearl
&gt;&gt;     Anniversary in Italy with your participation, though with the
&gt;&gt;     barrage of engagement and wedding events, she has regrettably
&gt;&gt;     insisted on postponing for one year this trip. This was her idea and
&gt;&gt;     not mine, as I beg your pardon for such anticipation. Also, her
&gt;&gt;     close friend Jennifer shall be giving birth around Ella’s birthday,
&gt;&gt;     so our stubborn Birthday Girl has insisted on spending her day in
&gt;&gt;     the States.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;     I have quite a few ideas stored away though she is adamant about
&gt;&gt;     neglecting this celebration. Thus far, I have rented a private yacht
&gt;&gt;     for us to get away far from land for a few days. Her family has the
&gt;&gt;     obligatory dinner planned the week of her birthday at the River Oaks
&gt;&gt;     Country Club.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;     So I am open to your suggestions and inevitable plotting on what
&gt;&gt;     else we can do, especially among her Stratfor mates. I firmly
&gt;&gt;     believe that we need something outside of my private kidnapping of
&gt;&gt;     her and her family’s stodgy dinner.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;     Let me know if we can work together in this endeavor. I am open to
&gt;&gt;     your suggestions and plotting. I hope you can aide my poor attempts
&gt;&gt;     to please all her requests on such an occasion.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;     Your servant and friend,
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;     L. Andrew
&gt;&gt;     ------------------------------------------------------------------------
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;     Rt. Hon Andrew Anderson
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;           Lord of Kenton Park
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;                Her Majesty The Queen’s Royal Shipping
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;                Anderson Shipping, UK
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;                     Aldwych House, 71-91 Aldwych London, UK WC2B 4HN
&gt;&gt;                     Service: 20.3287.8860
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;     
</description>
    <date>2010-02-12 21:49:47</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/387213_re-fw-the-letter-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>387524</id>
    <title>Re: Yes men prank today?
</title>
    <description>   Ok, just thought I heard something.  Never mind.  

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Feb 19, 2010, at 2:40 PM, Kathleen Morson &lt;morson@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

     they appear to be in sante fe for a benefit on their  movie this monday.

     there's a sante fe reporter article about them that lists little actions
     that people can take in the sante fe area -- one of them is for the
     independent petroleum association of mountain states and to register for
     a "washington call in" event IPAMS is doing.

     Target: The Independent Petroleum Association of Mountain States, a
     trade association that represents 400 a**independent oil and natural gas
     producersa** including Shell, BP and Halliburton

     The problem: IPAMS claims to be dedicated to a**building a sustainable
     energy future,a** but it lobbies against alternative energy and devotes
     the bulk of its advocacy to ensuring the continued primacy of fossil
     fuels.

     The prank: Register for the IPAMS a**Washington call up." Bring 10
     friends and perform a musical theater piece in the middle of the keynote
     speech. RSVP for the briefing by emailing Becca Ness or calling
     303-623-0987. Be sure to use a good pseudonym!

                                  YES, PLEASE

   THE YES MEN FIX THE WORLDNEW MEXICO

     By: Zane Fischer 02/17/2010

     http://sfreporter.com/stories/yes_please/5365/

     As a 14-year-old fan of both Jimmy Carter and George Orwell, 1984 was a
     tough year for me. 

     I was convinced Ronald Reagan would find a way to ensure an Orwellian
     dystopia and that a dark future was at hand.

     It turns out I was right.

     But the plot proved to be a lot bigger than Ronald Reagan, and Big
     Brother manifested more as a corporate medusa than a monolithic
     government. 

     If Ia**d known what to look for, the signs were sitting right in front
     of the sleepy rural town in which I grew up.

     On Dec. 3, 1984, 32 tons of toxic methyl isocyanate gas leaked out of
     a Union Carbide Corporation plant in Bhopal, India. Death toll numbers
     vary depending on the source, but between 4,000 and 18,000 people were
     dead within two weeks.

     Meanwhile, just a few miles west of my home in Bishop, Calif., and
     upriver from the sweet little stream that trickled past my house, Union
     Carbide was running the largest tungsten mine in the United States. In
     my town, Union Carbide was a source of good jobs and local benevolence.
     Union Carbide guys were heroes.

     I can remember my mother explaining to me that big companies werena**t
     always as responsible as they should be and would sometimes cut corners
     and take advantage of the poverty in other countries, but that the
     neighbor who worked at the mine wasna**t necessarily a bad person. 

     As the years wore on, people continued to die by the thousands in
     Bhopal. Union Carbide claimed it was not responsible and it abandoned
     the Bhopal plant, leaving behind another 390 tons of toxic chemicals
     that continue to leak into the groundwater to this day. The disaster
     there is now frequently cited as the worst industrial disaster in
     history.

     Twenty years after the Bhopal leak, on Dec. 3, 2004, a spokesman for Dow
     Chemical Company, which had purchased Union Carbide in 1999, announced
     on BBC World News that the company would pay reparations to the people
     of Bhopal and foot the bill for a comprehensive cleanup.

     In a little more than 20 minutes, the value of Dow stock dropped by $2
     billion. The spokesman was a hero.

     But he didna**t work for Dow. He was Andy Bichlbaum. He was a Yes Man.

     &lt;SFIinfo.jpg&gt;The Yes Men, an activist organization that uses parody and
     satire to bring attention to government and corporate misdeeds, came to
     prominence when they participated in the faux World Trade Organization
     website, gatt.org, which was launched in tandem with the protest-riddled
     1999 WTO meeting in Seattle, Wash. 

     Bichlbaum and fellow Yes Man Mike Bonanno have spent the 10 years since
     engaged in increasingly elaborate and far-reaching activist stunts.

     In 2000, the group spoofed President George W Busha**s election website,
     prompting Bush to say, famously, a**there ought to be limits to
     freedom.a**

     Among its many pranks striking at the core of social and economic
     issues, the Yes Men, in corporate or spokesman guise, have proposed that
     McDonalda**s include 20 percent post consumer waste in its hamburgers,
     announced that the US Department of Housing and Urban Development would
     do right by impoverished citizens left homeless by Hurricane Katrina and
     suggested that Africa could be better managed through the use of
     slavery.

     More recently, the Yes Men held a press conference in which they
     announced the US Chamber of Commercea**s newfound support for
     alternative energy and pretended to be representatives of the Canadian
     government at the climate change conference in Copenhagen, Denmark.

     As a result of Yes Men actions and film projects, thousands of articles
     have been written about otherwise-ignored issues. They have become the
     de facto publicity and propaganda arm of social-justice activism and,
     this week, theya**re on the loose in Santa Fe. SFR spoke to Bichlbaum
     about life as a Yes Man, and asked the group to provide some
     hypothetical a**actionsa** for some usual New Mexico suspects.

      

     WHO ARE THOSE UNMASKED MEN?

     SFR: An article in Mother Jones recently argued that Yes Men high jinks
     have degenerated to the level of mere entertainment, that it has become
     difficult to parse your attacks on corporations like Dow Chemical and
     Halliburton from the social or celebrity antics of Borat or Ashton
     Kutcher.
     AB: Really? I havena**t seen that. But, you know, wea**re just trying to
     get an important message out through the means that are available to us,
     the avenues that we are good at. We are doing what we can to publicize
     and drum up enthusiasm and engagement surrounding issues that we and a
     great many other people consider to be important. Certainly we use
     humor. And certainly entertainment can be about making people laugh, but
     also about something greater. Borat, for example, makes some points
     beyond simple jokes; therea**s a kind of a thesis in there. But the Yes
     Men are activists who are using comedy and Ia**m not sure therea**s a
     direct comparison to comedians who may have some activist element or
     some amount of social agenda that appears in their routines. 

     Is humor an effective way of cutting to the heart of our most pressing
     social, economic and political issues?
     Laughter is a simple tool that gets publicity and that results in
     articles being written and in the development of a broad audience. If
     what youa**re doing isna**t funnya**and I suppose you could correlate
     that to entertainment valuea**then your audience is likely to be a lot
     smaller. But ita**s possible that ridiculing those who are in fact
     ridiculous or whose ideas and actions are somewhat ridiculous can
     translate to some popular and progressive power. Some believe that humor
     is a potent political weapon; humor may have kneecapped Sarah Palina**s
     run for vice president or it may have toppled the Soviet Union. I
     dona**t know if I believe that exactly, but humor certainly is a
     powerful component of human belief and experience.

     If the Yes Men differ so significantly from comedians, what about
     self-declared activists with a different agenda, like James Oa**Keefe
     and Robert Flanagan and others involved in the controversial ACORN
     videos and the attempt to infiltrate US Sen. Mary Landrieua**s office?
     Oh, those guys are rank amateurs. I mean, going in and messing with a
     senatora**s phone lines and not even bothering to make fake ID? Ita**s
     just unbelievably stupid. Ita**s also not at all like what we do. They
     seem to be about hurting people who are in a position of weakness or
     hurting people who are trying to help people who are in a position of
     weakness. Wea**re more interested in stopping and exposing people who
     are hurting others. I mean, I dona**t actually understand the motivation
     for those guys: How can you put so much energy into hurting people? I
     know theya**re using the, uh, a**fair and balanceda** argument, but that
     doesna**t play with what amounts to a fraudulent sting-style operation
     perpetrated under false pretenses. Again, what we do is something a
     little different.

     But waita*|when you posed as a US Chamber of Commerce representative,
     you didna**t have any business cards when questioned. Why not?
     Good point. I guess my only defense is that we were engaging in
     political theater. We werena**t up to something definitively illegal. We
     were not trying to do something that we knew could land us in jail.
     Therea**s performance and therea**s amoral, illegal behavior, and I
     think the difference is perceptible.

     Do you think that Yes Men actions have been effective?
     Well, it gets media attention for sure. And, as I said, I think if that
     attention relates to a larger, cohesive campaign then, yes, it can be
     very effective.

     &lt;fast_-l.jpg&gt;Whata**s an example of relating to a broader strategy?
     Our sort of multifaceted attacks on Dow Chemical related to the Bhopal
     disaster were highly coordinated with groups that are dedicated to
     helping the victims in Bhopal or raising awareness about the incident.
     At the Copenhagen climate conference we worked with the Climate Debt
     Agents. We sort of drum up attention for causes that many other people
     and groups are already working on. Everything we do comes down to
     pointing out when economic policies place the rights of capital before
     the needs of people and the environment. Thata**s the key problem that
     wea**re always driving at and we can usually frame our actions within
     the context of other organizations that are dedicated to some aspect of
     that fight.

     Is corporatocracy the primary problem facing the US today?
     I think I can agree with that. Yes, yes it is.

     Is there an official Yes Men response to the US Supreme Courta**s recent
     assertion that the rights of corporations extend to unlimited campaign
     contributions?
     Just the obvious: Ita**s horrifying. Ita**s exactly the wrong direction
     to go in and, as a nation, wea**d better not let it stick. Ita**s so
     totally bad. The only way to ever see progressive legislation would be
     to end corporate lobbyinga**perioda**and this ruling, of course, goes in
     exactly the opposite direction.

     In some opposition to the usual position of the more conservative
     justices, that ruling appears to attack statesa** rights, as a great
     many states have laws governing corporate contributions. Do you think
     states will become the front line on this battle?
     I guess Ia**m not up enough on that as I should be. I dona**t really
     know what role the states will play.

     Your presentation in Santa Fe serves as a benefit for the Santa Fe Art
     Institute. Are the Yes Men artists?
     I dona**t know. I guess it depends on who is asking. Or who is being
     asked. Ora*|I dona**t really think of it that way, I dona**t wonder
     about how to define what we do; I just think of it as doing something.

     Why are so few of us doing something?
     I dona**t know that either. Ita**s a good question. Maybe most of us
     dona**t realize how fun it is to start doing something. Trying to make
     things better may not sound like a good time but, I promise, there can a
     lot of fun in it.

     Are you able to hint at any new targets on the horizon or do you have to
     feign innocence?
     Well, the list of potential targets is, regrettably, almost endless. But
     right now, I feel like wea**ve just finish
</description>
    <date>2010-02-19 21:47:10</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/387524_re-yes-men-prank-today-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>morson@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>defeo@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mongoven@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>387545</id>
    <title>STAFF - Ryan Bodanyi works for NWF now
</title>
    <description>   http://www.nwf.org/News-and-Magazines/Media-Center/Faces-of-NWF/Ryan-Bodanyi.aspx
   Ryan Bodanyi
   National Grassroots Organizer
   Great Lakes Regional Center - Ann Arbor, MI
   Contact
   Ryan Bodanyi is the National Grassroots Organizer for the National
   Wildlife Federation.

   Ryan mobilizes NWF supporters to take action in support of comprehensive
   climate and clean energy legislation.

   A lifelong Michigan resident, Ryan graduated with a degree in
   Environmental Public Policy from the University of Michigan before
   founding Students for Bhopal, which organized support for the survivors of
   the 1984 chemical disaster in Bhopal, India.  Ryan has also worked for
   Greenpeace, Clean Water Action, and the Clean Air Task Force, and
   currently works with NWF to organize support for comprehensive climate
   change legislation.
</description>
    <date>2010-12-23 19:45:19</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/387545_staff-ryan-bodanyi-works-for-nwf-now-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>morson@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mongoven@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>morson@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>defeo@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>pubpolblog.post@blogger.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>387684</id>
    <title>=?Windows-1252?B?UmU6IFtDVF1bT1NdIElDRUxBTkQvVVMvTUlMIC0gVmljdG9yeSBmb3IgV2lraUxlYWtzIGluIEljZWxhbmSScyBQYXJsaWFtZW50?=
</title>
    <description>   Who funds WikiLeaks? Could this be a Russian front company? The dude needs
   to be locked up.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2010 13:07:57 -0500
   To: CT AOR&lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [CT] [OS] ICELAND/US/MIL - Victory for WikiL eaks in
   Iceland's Parliament
   Note the analysis at the very bottom, this won't keep people like
   Wikileaks protected, but it will help. 

   Daniel Ben-Nun wrote:

                 Victory for WikiLeaks in Iceland's Parliament

     By ROBERT MACKEY

     An Al Jazeera English video report explained the Icelandic Modern Media
     Initiative in March.

     At 4 a.m. on Thursday, at the end of an all-night session, Iceland's
     Parliament, the Althing, voted unanimously in favor of a package of
     legislation aimed at making the country a haven for freedom of
     expression by offering legal protection to whistle-blower Web sites like
     WikiLeaks, which helped to craft the proposal.

     As the Web site Ice News reports, "One of the inspirations for the
     proposal was the dramatic August 2009 gagging of of Iceland's national
     broadcaster, RUV by Iceland's then largest bank, Kaupthing."

     One of the sponsors of the proposal in the Althing, Birgitta Jonsdottir,
     told my colleague Noam Cohen in February that Iceland hoped to become
     "the inverse of a tax haven," by offering journalists and publishers
     some of the most aggressive protections for free speech and
     investigative journalism in the world. "They are trying to make
     everything opaque," she said. "We are trying to make it transparent."

     As Mr. Cohen explained in an article on the package of laws that passed
     on Thursday:

         The proposal, the Icelandic Modern Media Initiative, combines in a
     single piece of legislation provisions from around the world:
     whistle-blower laws and rules about Internet providers from the United
     States; source protection laws from Belgium; freedom of information laws
     from Estonia and Scotland, among others; and New York State's law to
     counteract "libel tourism," the practice of suing in courts, like
     Britain's, where journalists have the hardest time prevailing. [...]

         The plan to make Iceland a world leader in journalism protection
     took shape in December with the assistance of two leaders of the
     whistle-blower Web site WikiLeaks.org, Julian Assange and Daniel
     Schmitt, whose publish-nearly-anything ideology has given them personal
     experience with news media laws around the globe.

     On Tuesday, Philip Shenon of The Daily Beast reported that Mr. Assange
     had told supporters that the site would soon release another video of an
     American military strike that killed civilians:

         After several days underground, the founder of the secretive Web
     site WikiLeaks has gone public to disclose that he is preparing to
     release a classified Pentagon video of a U.S. airstrike in Afghanistan
     last year that left as many as 140 civilians dead, most of them children
     and teenagers.

         In an e-mail message obtained by The Daily Beast that was sent to
     WikiLeaks supporters in the United States Tuesday, Julian Assange, the
     Web site's Australian-born founder, also defends a 22-year-old Army
     intelligence specialist who is now under arrest in Kuwait on charges
     that he leaked classified Pentagon combat videos, as well as 260,000
     State Department cables, to WikiLeaks.

     It is not yet clear how much help the new legislation will provide to
     foreign journalists trying to shield themselves behind Icelandic law. As
     the Nieman Journalism Lab notes:
         In his analysis of the proposal - "Fortress Iceland? Probably Not."
     - Arthur Bright of the Citizen Media Law Project has noted that in one
     major test case of cross-border online libel law, "publication" was
     deemed to occur at the point of download - meaning that serving a
     controversial page from Iceland won't keep you from getting sued in
     other countries. But if nothing else, it would probably prevent your
     servers from being forcibly shut down.
     Monroe Price, who runs a program in comparative media law at the
     University of Oxford, told The Independent in London, "As an exercise in
     aspirations, it's a bold and important endeavor." But, he added, "if
     it's a significant issue like a national security question, then the
     charging jurisdiction will figure out ways of asserting its power."

     --
     Daniel Ben-Nun
     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-06-17 20:15:31</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 03:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/387684_-windows-1252-b.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>387892</id>
    <title>Re: Tirana update
</title>
    <description>   Albanian

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2011 13:44:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Burton Fred&lt;fred.burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Tirana update
   Is this a U.S. or an Albanian LE source?

   And if U.S., what is he doing with the opposition groups?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: burton@stratfor.com, "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "Tactical" &lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2011 1:40:14 PM
   Subject: Re: Tirana update

   I think this is worth being written up as a piece ahead of tomorrow's
   protests.

   Is it possible to publish this?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: burton@stratfor.com
   To: "Analysts" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;, "Tactical" &lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2011 1:36:04 PM
   Subject: Tirana update

   From TrapWire --

   Just in from a contact (Former senior law enforcement officer with direct
   access to Opposition party members).

    

   Tirana : 22 Jan 2011 (Situation at 1930 local)

    

   a**         Situation today calm, as Govt declared day of mourning for the
   "martyrs" (Berisha's words).

   a**         The Opposition has been hold-up all day today in Mayor Edi
   Rama's office discussing next steps. There is some reluctance on their
   part as to whether tomorrow's protest should proceed as planned. They have
   apparently received word that many protesters intend to come armed to
   protect themselves against the police.  Rama has commented privately he
   may lead the protest to try and keep them peaceful.

   a**         Despite this, the Opposition continues to insist they will not
   stop actions against the current regime until Berisha resigns. In
   response, Berisha has declared that "anyone touching an official
   government building will meet the same fate as the protestors yesterday."

   a**         Rumblings have started in other major cities throughout
   Albania re. sympathetic protests. Most notably Shkoder, Durres and
   Gjirokaster.

   a**         There are reports of a handful of arrests of senior police
   officials following yesterday's incident. Investigation is now underway as
   to who gave the order to fire upon the crowds.

   a**         Rumors continue to spread within the population that agents of
   the State Intelligence Service (SHISH) had infiltrated the crowds and
   provoked yesterday's violence. (Comment: No proof of this, but would not
   be the first time SHISH was used in this capacity).

   a**         Note: Great deal of fear and apprehension amongst the
   populace, particularly in Tirana. Most still have vivid memories of '90
   and '97. Average Albanian is still well armed following the ransacking of
   weapons depots in '97 and an escalation in violence is not unthinkable.

    

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 20:57:31</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/387892_re-tirana-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>388134</id>
    <title>Yes Men monitoring 03-25-11
</title>
    <description>   Yes Man Mike Bonanno (Igor Vamos) was to give a lecture on 3/24 at Temple
   University in Philadelphia. The event was sponsored by "Produce
   Exhibitions, The Temple Film Department, and The Tyler Art History
   Department." No details of the presentation were offered.

   -       A screening of The Yes Men Fix The World is scheduled as a
   follow-up event on 3/28.

   -       The Yes Men's booking agency Evil Twin Booking is based in
   Philadelphia.

   Regards,

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-03-25 18:10:11</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/388134_yes-men-monitoring-03-25-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mkolleth@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>388336</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 12-21-10
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   PTI issued a short review of the year's top media stories and titled it
   "Bhopal gas verdict, compensation issues made headlines in MP." The first
   half of the article summarizes the Bhopal court verdicts for the former
   UCIL officials including Keshub Mahindra, the issue of Warren Anderson's
   departure from India, and that the "compensation issue is yet to be
   settled."  The latter cites Abdul Jabbar on the shortcomings of the
   enhanced compensation package. Multiple pickups through India media
   websites.

   http://news.in.msn.com/national/article.aspx?cp-documentid=4724505

   The Hindu's front page of the Delhi and Mumbai editions includes an
   article on the BJP criticizing the Congress party on numerous fronts. The
   story reported comments from BJP leader Nirmala Sitharaman at a press
   conference. Among other topics, he referred to Congress'
   "[allowing]...William [sic] Anderson...chief of Union Carbide to get
   away." Full text available on request.

   The only activist communication at this time is one new tweet from Colin
   Toogood: "In US? This might be worth looking at" includes a link to an
   online petition through the Consumer Wellness Center with an appeal to
   "Stop HR 2751 Food Safety Act." There is no indication of any connection
   between the BMA and activism on the FSA. The issue named is that the bill
   could interfere somehow with "access to locally grown fresh produce."

   Please note: AIM will be closing for the Christmas and New Year holidays
   on Wed., Dec. 22 at 3PM Eastern and reopen on Mon., Jan. 3 at 8AM.

   A weekly monitoring report will be issued on Wednesday. Monitoring will
   continue on a limited scale through the holidays with occasional reports
   issued as necessary.

   Please let me know if you require any other arrangements.

   Merry Christmas,

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2010-12-21 17:22:17</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/388336_bhopal-update-12-21-10-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>389024</id>
    <title>Yes Men monitoring 05-06-11
</title>
    <description>   Several media items had Yes Men content:

   -       Toronto's York University announced Andy Bichlbaum will be the
   keynote speaker for the Digital Activism and the Environment portion of
   the 2011 Summer Institute in Film to be held May 11 to 17 at the school.
   Bichlbaum will tailor the Yes Men's lecture into "The Yes Men Fix Canada"
   on May 11 at Ontario College of Art &amp; Design University Auditorium. A Yes
   Lab will also be held for students attending the institute. Dow is noted
   in the enthusiastically complimentary press release as one of the Yes
   Men's "legendary" identity correction targets.

   http://news.yorku.ca/2011/05/03/digital-activism-the-environment-york-university%E2%80%99s-summer-institute-in-film-features-the-yes-men/

   -       A press advisory from the Stedelijk Museum in Amsterdam, the
   Netherlands announced Yes Man Mike Bonanno will appear there on May 27 for
   the Artists in Public lecture series. Bonanno will appear with Nomeda &amp;
   Gediminas Urbonas, a husband-and-wife team of artists from Lithuania. They
   were part of a group that they established the JUTEMPUS exhibition space
   in Vilnius in 1993.

   http://museumpublicity.com/2011/04/30/stedelijk-museum-amsterdam-hosts-april-30-2011-skor-foundation-for-art-and-public-domain-stedelijk-museum-amsterdam-artists-in-public-3-lecture/

   -       The Nation magazine's website has a current blog post on the US
   Uncut activist group that notes the Yes Men were involved with the "GE tax
   rebate" prank on April 15.

   http://www.thenation.com/blog/160301/no-future-no-peace

   -       The Chicago Journal, a Chicago Loop media site, reported last
   week's Midwest Generation announcement of a power plant in a South Loop
   neighborhood was a hoax. A Chicago Public Radio reporter was credited with
   "grilling" activist Sam Sommers it was revealed Sommers' real name is
   Lindsey Dietzler. Dietzler said "he was inspired to stage the whole thing
   by workshops taught by political performance artists The Yes Men."
   Alderman Bob Fioretti said the action "seriously undercut" the work of
   those who are trying to "clean up Chicago's power plants."

   http://www.chicagojournal.com/News/In-The-Paper/05-04-2011/South_Loop_power_plant_debunked_as_a_hoax

   -       The Knoxville (TN) News-Sentinel published a commentary by PR
   professional Mary Beth West, who criticized Andy Bichlbaum's appearance at
   the University of Tennessee in March as damaging to journalistic ethics
   and teaching wrong thinking to students. West also criticized the
   university for allowing the presentation without an appropriate
   counterpoint "about the consequences of flagrant dishonesty as a modus
   operandi."

   http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2011/may/01/deceptive-practices-troubling/

   The Yes Men themselves have been quiet this week.

   Regards,

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-05-06 21:08:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/389024_yes-men-monitoring-05-06-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mkolleth@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>389124</id>
    <title>Question
</title>
    <description>Blake,

TrapWire still on the schedule or dead in the water?

Hope all is well?  Still waiting for my Gov appt??

Fred
</description>
    <date>2010-03-30 01:08:56</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/389124_question-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Blake.Sawyer@txdps.state.tx.us</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>389297</id>
    <title>Bhopal update- 03-03-11
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   Things are much quieter today on the Bhopal issue.

   Bhopal Central Chronicle and the Daily Pioneer both posted articles
   sourced from PTI on the ICJB protest against Dow participating in the
   Aquatech trade show. BCC's piece was quite short; the Pioneer posted an
   abbreviated version of the longer PTI wire piece from Wednesday afternoon.

   http://dailypioneer.com/321593/Gas-survivors-lash-out-at-Centre-Maharashtra-Govts.html

   Daily Pioneer also posted for the Bhopal edition of its website media
   today a short version of Tuesday's ICJB press release criticizing the
   BMHRC's practices in drug trials that included gas victims.

   http://dailypioneer.com/321607/Gas-victims-allege-they-were-being-used-as-guinea-pigs.html

   French media site Journal del Environment posted an article on the
   upcoming ICMR report on cancer incidence in Bhopal and possible links to
   MIC gas exposure. This article has a response from Sarangi criticizing the
   findings. He said data was only collected at "5 of the 64 hospitals and
   clinics that should have been followed.  There is also a problem of data
   presentation, they talk about contaminated areas instead of talking to
   people affected by the gas.  Finally, in this report, no mention is made
   of pollution lanappe table."

   http://www.journaldelenvironnement.net/article/bhopal-la-ville-des-cancers,21879

   Also, NYT reporter Eric Lipton wrote an article on Louisiana charity the
   Jindal Foundation, to which Dow contributed $100,000. The paragraph on Dow
   noted neither it nor UCC have been fined for a December 2009 chemical
   spill in St. Charles parish, despite the state proposing a fine for the
   companies. The article as a whole questions whether companies are
   influencing Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal through the charitable
   foundation, which is run under his wife's name.

   http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/03/us/politics/03jindal.html?partner=rss&amp;emc=rss

   Things are also quiet on the activist end.

   -       Dharmesh Shah emailed the ICJB distribution list with the IBNS
   articles on the Aquatech trade show.

   -       Colin Toogood, who had yesterday tweeted with excitement about
   Aquatech dissociating from Dow, followed it up with one expressing
   disappointment on the show officials refuting the ICJB's press
   announcement.

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-03-03 17:14:57</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/389297_bhopal-update-03-03-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>389346</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 01-27-11
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   Colin Toogood posted on Twitter and Facebook calls for readers to "rate"
   the Bhopali documentary on the Slamdance Film Festival website. So far,
   there are 41 reviews posted - most are just a single statement and the
   vast majority are complimentary. There is a post from BMA praising
   Carlson's work and promoting the BMA website. The full list of reviews
   will be provided later in the day.

   -       Toogood also posted links to the BMA profile of gardener Ratna;
   the BMA Wordpress blog, which has two new links; and a pickup of the
   Project Censored article that has been reported here previously.

   -       The BMA Wordpress updates are a link to the Times of India article
   on "imposters" of gas-affected patients receiving care at the BMHRC, and
   one of archived Bhopal photos on India Today.

   Amnesty USA groups, AID and other non-resident Indian organizations in the
   US continue to post notices of protests and rallies in support of Binayak
   Sen this week through Sunday, Jan. 30.

   In the media,

   -       Indian Express reported the Reserve Bank of India       listed
   Environment &amp; Forests Minister Jairam Ramesh's "environment-sensitive
   policies" as a factor in "an almost 36 percent dip" in Foreign Direct
   Investment (FDI). The article itself did not mention Bhopal, but it drew
   more than a dozen comments, one of which was apparently from ICJB
   member/environmental reporter Nityanand Jayaraman, who did bring up
   Bhopal. The comments as a whole praised Ramesh's policies and credited the
   FDI reduction to "rampant government corruption."

   http://www.indianexpress.com/news/rbi-blames-jairams-policies-for-fdi-dip/742560/0

   -       Charleston Gazette published an op-ed on Bayer ending MIC
   production, by hazmat consultant Fred Millar. He called for stricter
   government regulations on "ultrahazardous" materials and facilities.
   Bhopal was mentioned in reference to the having the "same ultrahazarodous
   bulk storage process" as the Institute plant.

   http://wvgazettemail.com/Opinion/OpEdCommentaries/201101260960

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-01-27 18:05:28</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/389346_bhopal-update-01-27-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>389625</id>
    <title>Re: Insight- Sharif Mobley
</title>
    <description>   And Stratfor

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 9 Apr 2010 08:00:38 -0400
   To: 'Aaron Colvin'&lt;aaron.colvin@stratfor.com&gt;; 'Fred
   Burton'&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: RE: Insight- Sharif Mobley

   It is not unusual for nuts to gravitate to places like Yemen and groups
   like AQAP.

    

    

    

   From: Aaron Colvin [mailto:aaron.colvin@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, April 09, 2010 6:44 AM
   To: scott stewart; Fred Burton
   Subject: Insight- Sharif Mobley

    

   Heard from a very reliable source close to the folks who debriefed Mobely
   that the dude's a] bat shit crazy; and b] he's going to die here. USG is
   convinced that they're going to kill him. Also, he was not part of AQAP.
   Security simply picked him up on suspicions and his shady affiliations.
   Apparently, when they debriefed him he was singing Lionel Richie and
   cracking odd jokes the whole time, either aware or simply unaware that
   they're either going to throw him off a roof [common practice here] or
   they'll put him face down with an AK round to the back of the head.

   Running to another meeting. Call me if you need anything.
</description>
    <date>2010-04-09 14:01:38</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/389625_re-insight-sharif-mobley-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>aaron.colvin@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>389743</id>
    <title>Re: Cavuto
</title>
    <description>   Border violence

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Wed, 5 May 2010 16:31:11 -0400
   To: &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: RE: Cavuto

   What did you talk about.

    

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, May 05, 2010 4:27 PM
   To: Kyle Rhodes; Grant Perry
   Cc: Korena Zucha; Anya Alfano; Scott Stewart
   Subject: Fw: Cavuto

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: &lt;Tony.Vermillion@emerson.com&gt;

   Date: Wed, 5 May 2010 20:25:39 +0000

   To: &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;

   Subject: Cavuto

    

   Fred,

    

   Just saw you on Cavuto - good job.  Very few people get this - the only
   way to turn the tide is education and lots of military presence.

    

   Thanks,

    

   Tony Vermillion

   Emerson Global Security

   (314) 553-2461

   tony.vermillion@emerson.com

    

    
</description>
    <date>2010-05-05 22:31:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/389743_re-cavuto-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>389793</id>
    <title></title>
    <description>   A hero?
    Avaaz is right.  It's not illegal but it does make you accessory to being
   an asshole. Real people are being tortured by governments that Avaaz and
   Assange probably like more than the US, all the while the two of them
   denounce US 'torture' at Guantanamo.  
   They are like the crazy IPS/CISPES/SDS people who were so full of hate
   that they could not see that they are doing so much more bad than they at
   doing good.
   I'm in favor of using whatever trumped up charge is available to get this
   guy and his servers off the streets.  And I'd feed that shit head soldier
   to the first pack of wild dogs I could find.
   Or perhaps just do to him whatever the Iranians are doing to our sources
   there.

   On Dec 9, 2010, at 7:22 PM, Kathleen Morson &lt;morson@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

     Got this today from Avaaz.  This reminds me of a item I saw on the local
     news last night - Berkeley is gearing up for a resolution calling
     Manning a hero.

     --------

     Dear friends,

     The chilling intimidation campaign against WikiLeaks (when they have
     broken no laws) is an attack on freedom of the press and democracy. We
     urgently need a massive public outcry to stop the crackdown -- let's get
     to 1 million voices and take out full page ads in US newspapers this
     week! 

     The massive campaign of intimidation against WikiLeaks is sending a
     chill through free press advocates everywhere.

     Legal experts say WikiLeaks has likely broken no laws. Yet top US
     politicians have called it a terrorist group and commentators have urged
     assassination of its staff. The organization has come under massive
     government and corporate attack, but WikiLeaks is only publishing
     information provided by a whistleblower. And it has partnered with the
     world's leading newspapers (NYT, Guardian, Spiegel etc) to carefully vet
     the information it publishes.

     The massive extra-judicial intimidation of WikiLeaks is an attack on
     democracy. We urgently need a public outcry for freedom of the press and
     expression. Sign the petition to stop the crackdown and forward this
     email to everyone -- let's get to 1 million voices and take out full
     page ads in US newspapers this week!

     http://www.avaaz.org/en/wikileaks_petition/?vl

     WikiLeaks isn't acting alone -- it's partnered with the top newspapers
     in the world (New York Times, The Guardian, Der Spiegel, etc) to
     carefully review 250,000 US diplomatic cables and remove any information
     that it is irresponsible to publish. Only 800 cables have been published
     so far. Past WikiLeaks publications have exposed government-backed
     torture, the murder of innocent civilians in Iraq and Afghanistan, and
     corporate corruption.

     The US government is currently pursuing all legal avenues to stop
     WikiLeaks from publishing more cables, but the laws of democracies
     protect freedom of the press. The US and other governments may not like
     the laws that protect our freedom of expression, but that's exactly why
     it's so important that we have them, and why only a democratic process
     can change them.

     Reasonable people can disagree on whether WikiLeaks and the leading
     newspapers it's partnered with are releasing more information than the
     public should see. Whether the releases undermine diplomatic
     confidentiality and whether that's a good thing. Whether WikiLeaks
     founder Julian Assange has the personal character of a hero or a
     villain. But none of this justifies a vicious campaign of intimidation
     to silence a legal media outlet by governments and corporations. Click
     below to join the call to stop the crackdown:

     http://www.avaaz.org/en/wikileaks_petition/?vl

     Ever wonder why the media so rarely gives the full story of what happens
     behind the scenes? This is why - because when they do, governments can
     be vicious in their response. And when that happens, it's up to the
     public to stand up for our democratic rights to a free press and freedom
     of expression. Never has there been a more vital time for us to do so.

     With hope,
     Ricken, Emma, Alex, Alice, Maria Paz and the rest of the Avaaz team.

     SOURCES:

     Law experts say WikiLeaks in the clear (ABC)
     http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2010/s3086781.htm

     WikiLeaks are a bunch of terrorists, says leading U.S. congressman (Mail
     Online)
     http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1333879/WikiLeaks-terrorists-says-leading-US-congressman-Peter-King.html

     Cyber guerrillas can help US (Financial Times)
     http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d3dd7c40-ff15-11df-956b-00144feab49a.html#axzz17QvQ4Ht5

     Amazon drops WikiLeaks under political pressure (Yahoo)
     http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20101201/tc_afp/usdiplomacyinternetwikileakscongressamazon

     "WikiLeaks avenged by hacktivists" (PC World):
     http://www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/article/212701/operation_payback_wikileaks_avenged_by_hacktivists.html

     US Gov shows true control over Internet with WikiLeaks containment
     (Tippett.org)
     http://www.tippett.org/2010/12/us-gov-shows-true-control-over-internet-with-wikileaks-containment/

     US embassy cables culprit should be executed, says Mike Huckabee (The
     Guardian)
     http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/01/us-embassy-cables-executed-mike-huckabee

     WikiLeaks ditched by MasterCard, Visa. Who's next? (The Christian
     Science Monitor)
     http://www.csmonitor.com/Innovation/Horizons/2010/1207/WikiLeaks-ditched-by-MasterCard-Visa.-Who-s-next

     Assange's Interpol Warrant Is for Having Sex Without a Condom (The
     Slatest)
     http://slatest.slate.com/id/2276690/

     Support the Avaaz community! We're entirely funded by donations and
     receive no money from governments or corporations. Our dedicated team
     ensures even the smallest contributions go a long way -- donate here.
</description>
    <date>2010-12-10 03:34:36</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/389793_.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>morson@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>defeo@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mongoven@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>pubpolblog.post@blogger.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>389807</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 03-30-11
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   There is very little to report at this time. New media is negligible -
   only a few mentions of the Bhopal gas accident as a point of reference.

   Colin Toogood posted a few items on the BMA Facebook and Twitter accounts,
   including basic event details for the April 7 screening of the Bhopali
   film at UC Berkeley - 6 p.m. in Boalt Hall, Room 105, Berkeley School of
   Law.

   -       Toogood also posted the CBI extradition approval came from the
   "Indian Supreme Court," when he linked to a 3/23 media item reporting the
   decision came from the CMM.

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-03-30 17:01:29</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/389807_bhopal-update-03-30-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>389850</id>
    <title>Update: Yes Men monitoring - 03-15-11
</title>
    <description>   The CM-Life website now has a report posted from Bichlbaum's appearance
   Monday evening.

   CMU Art Gallery Director Anne Gochenour said "protest art" is the current
   season's theme for the Dept. of Art's Barstow Lecture series. She said the
   Yes Men "bring light to the dishonesty they find in marketing and
   business."

   The article reported Bichlbaum described the Yes Men's Bhopal/BBC action
   as an example of the hoaxes they conduct, and that he said, "We want to
   put pressure on companies to do the right thing."

   Many of the attendees were art students on class assignments and free
   entertainment, and that some professors used the lecture as a substitute
   for regularly scheduled classes.

   http://www.cm-life.com/2011/03/15/73415/

    

   Regards,

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-03-15 21:05:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/389850_update-yes-men-monitoring-03-15-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>389862</id>
    <title>Fw: From MX1 -- 2
</title>
    <description>     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 15 Apr 2010 12:36:40 +0000
   To: Marko Papic&lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;; Fred
   Burton&lt;fred.burton@stratfor.com&gt;; Scott
   Stewart&lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;; Alex Posey&lt;alex.posey@stratfor.com&gt;;
   Ben West&lt;ben.west@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: From MX1 -- 2
   Can you ask if the MX strategy is a desire for direct negotiation with the
   cartels?

   If so, doesn't that give the cartels recognized diplomacy?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 15 Apr 2010 06:33:56 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Fred Burton&lt;fred.burton@stratfor.com&gt;; scott
   stewart&lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;; Alex Posey&lt;alex.posey@stratfor.com&gt;;
   ben&lt;ben.west@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: From MX1 -- 2
   NOT FOR PUBLICATION

   I read an analysis on the attacks towards US consulates.

   Basically, it says that the NF &amp; Zetas both believe that they have
   the upper hand with the Americans, and that if they cause problems
   for US interests, there will be greater government emphasis that
   will harm the other cartel.

   A similar situation exists in CDJ.  However, our sources maintain
   that the attack on the consulate workers was aimed at the EP County
   Jail officer, as I originally speculated.  On the other hand, if
   VCF were to believe that attracting US attention CDJ would result
   in pressure on Sinaloa, this would be a grave mistake.  We believe
   that when the US made an announcement that was corroborated by
   several federal spokespersons simultaneously (that Sinaloa
   controlled CDJ), it was a message that the DEA wanted to send to
   Sinaloa.  The message was that the US recognized Sinaloa's
   dominance in the area, although it was not absolute.  It was meant
   to be read by the cartels as a sort of ultimatum: negotiate and put
   your house in order once and for all.  One dissenting analyst
   thinks that the message is the opposite, telling Sinaloa to take
   what it had and to leave what remains of VCF.  Regardless, the
   reports are saying that the US message to the cartels was to
   negotiate and stop the violence.  It says that the US has never
   before pronounced that a cartel controls a particular plaza, so it
   is an unusual event.

   Although it was not explicitly said in the report I read, there is
   a possibility that Mexican agencies knew the announcement would
   come out.  Any idea what strategizing went on behind the release of
   that statement?
</description>
    <date>2010-04-15 14:37:19</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 05:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/389862_fw-from-mx1-2-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>thecactusjack@gmail.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>389910</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 03-21-11
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   The Associated Press reported late this morning Judge Goodwin has granted
   the plaintiffs in Nye v. Bayer CropScience 20 days to modify their
   complaint against the company. According to plaintiffs' attorney William
   DePaulo, this is about possible claims of property damages and medical
   monitoring that were mentioned in last week's media.

   http://www.wvgazette.com/ap/ApTopStories/201103210467

   Other monitoring has been fairly quiet.

   -       Colin Toogood posted a few tweets - runner Jenny Hards raised 120
   pounds for the BMA by running the Lisbon Half Marathon on Sunday; he
   "liked" two Yes Men videos on YouTube; and he posted links to Friday's AP
   story about Bayer's decision not to produce MIC, the Hindu piece on the
   Bhopal photo exhibit at Chennai, and Max Carlson's petition to Pres.
   Obama.

   -       A US community of arts media known as EDGE has posted the
   Philadelphia CineFest press release that mentions the Bhopali film will be
   screened there. The press release was on several EDGE city websites
   including New York and Boston.

   -       Hawaii News Now Blog posted an article on "Exxon, Bhopal, Tepco
   and executive responsibility" that includes a paragraph on Warren Anderson
   that is fairly sympathetic in tone. The writer mentioned an NYT article in
   which "Anderson said he had become a recluse because he felt it would
   dishonor those killed to be seen enjoying, say, a meal in a restaurant."

   http://blogs.hawaiinewsnow.com/howard/2011/03/exxon-bhopal-tepso-and-executive-responsibility.html?cid=6a01287768a2b5970c0147e35a81d7970b

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-03-21 17:51:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/389910_bhopal-update-03-21-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>389922</id>
    <title>Yes Men monitoring 03-04-11
</title>
    <description>   The Yes Men have been communicating this week about supporting environment
   activist Tim DeChristopher during his trial in Utah this week on charges
   of false representation during a 2008 Bureau of Land Management land
   auction. The Yes Men posted on their blog and tweeted about
   DeChristopher's trial, and ended the blog post with "With any luck, we'll
   be back in touch soon with news of some great new opportunities."

   -       There has been no follow-up reporting from the Yes Lab event in
   New York City last Saturday. The topic was to have been a company in the
   food industry. Whether or not it is connected, Global Exchange emailed an
   invitation to participate in an action targeting Hershey Chocolate Co.
   about unfair labor practices in cocoa production.

   Yes Men appearances

   -       March 8, Albany, NY - Mike Bonanno to present on Guerilla Media
   101 at the Sanctuary for Independent Media,.

   -       March 10, Knoxville, TN - Bonanno and Bichlbaum are to conduct a
   "pranking workshop" at the Univ. of Tenn and do a "presentation" The YM
   film will be shown on March 7 as a preview event.

   http://www.knoxville.com/news/2011/feb/27/art-theater-briefs/?partner=RSS

   Media

   3/1 The UK Guardian's Ecologist publication included an interview with the
   YM in NYC. Most of the content is the usual description of the pair and
   their efforts, with the obligatory mention of the BBC/Bhopal hoax as one
   that generated ripples in the media and financial markets. The Yes Men are
   noted as being involved with USunCut, an activist movement targeting the
   financial and tax institutions. (This group was behind recent protests
   targeting the World Bank and Bank of America.)

   http://www.theecologist.org/how_to_make_a_difference/climate_change_and_energy/792772/they_took_on_dow_and_halliburton_but_who_are_the_yes_men.html

   3/4 The Albany (NY) Times-Union included Bonanno's 3/8 engagement in its
   arts event listings.

   http://www.timesunion.com/entertainment/article/Scene-Heard-1040717.php

   The Kansan, Univ. of Kansas daily media, published both a preview and
   event report on the 2/27 screening of the YM film.

   http://www.kansan.com/news/2011/feb/27/truth-seekers-put-political-activism-film/

   Film screenings

   4/27 Lynchburg, VA -Lynchburg College will show the YM film as part of its
   Year of Sustainability Film Series; a "short" discussion may follow.

   4/29, Geneva, IL - the United Church of Christ will show the YM film as
   part of its Justice Movie Series

   Regards,

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-03-04 21:41:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/389922_yes-men-monitoring-03-04-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mkolleth@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>389943</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 03-07-11
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   Colin Toogood tweeted a link to a CNN-IBN Special Report video on the
   BMHRC drug trials the Bhopal NGOs say used gas victims as "human guinea
   pigs." The tone of the 3-minute piece is accusatory and demanding but does
   not mention Dow or focus on the gas accident itself. The figures
   previously released by the ICJB from RTI documents on the drug trials are
   presented again, with one case story of "Laxmi" and her husband, who has
   died. He was found to have been part of a drug trial following a visit to
   the hospital for heart problems.

   http://ibnlive.in.com/videos/144814/bhopal-gas-victims-guinea-pigs-for-drug-trials.html

   -       Toogood also tweeted a link to last week's press release about Dow
   as a sponsor of the Special Olympics World Summer Games.

   Hindustan Times published an opinion piece by Delhi-based political
   commentator Ashok Malik about the "curious choice" of Parliament in
   turning down PJ Thomas for India's Central Vigiliance Commissioner (CVC).
   While Justice JS Verma was apparently selected for the post, Justice AH
   Ahmadi was also proposed. Malik pointed out Ahmadi's controversial
   position as chair of BMHRC during the time the above-mentioned drug trials
   took place.

   http://www.hindustantimes.com/A-curious-choice/Article1-670250.aspx

   In activist information:

   -       AID Boston has been deemed the host chapter for the organization's
   North American annual conference on Memorial Day weekend.

   -       Diane Wilson will be the keynote speaker on Saturday, March 12 at
   the Environmental Action 2011 conference at Bentley University in Waltham,
   MA.

   -       The BMA website has only been updated with three more sections
   from Sarangi's book introduction: "Double standards of safety," "Profit
   before people," and "A disaster waiting to happen."

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-03-07 17:18:28</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/389943_bhopal-update-03-07-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>390036</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 04-13-11 afternoon
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   In today's print media, there were six appearances, all somewhat short.
   Three appeared above the fold: The Pioneer published "Govt seeks harsher
   penalty for accused, files curative plea in SC" at the top of page 5; The
   Hindu published "Hearing today on curative petitions in Bhopal gas case"
   at the top of page 15; and The Times of India Mumbai edition published
   "Who negotiated paltry Bhopal deal?" at the top of page 16. Three appeared
   below the fold: The Asian Age published "Centre, MP failed to consult
   people panels" at the bottom of page 8; and The Hindustan Times New Delhi
   and Mumbai editions published a two sentence mention of the upcoming
   hearing on the bottom of pages 8 and 9, respectively.

   In activist news:

   The Bhopal Medical Appeal shared a link to its site on the social media
   news site Reddit.com. As of this report, it had a positive rating of 732
   points, showing 64% approval. 
   http://www.reddit.com/r/todayilearned/comments/gndnt/til_that_in_1984_a_union_carbide_plant_in_bhopal/

   Regards,

   Marissa Martin

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-04-13 17:50:13</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/390036_bhopal-update-04-13-11-afternoon-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>390037</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 01-20-11
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   LiveMint referred to the Bhopal gas accident in an article about
   preferential treatment of an Indian diplomat accused of assaulting his
   wife. This also appeared on an interior page of the epaper.

   http://www.indiainfoline.com/Markets/News/Immunity-from-justice/5058751852

   UMass - Amherst news announced a new science curriculum designed to
   address "real world problems," one of which is noted to be the "Bhopal
   disaster." I will look into this further.

   http://www.umass.edu/loop/talkingpoints/articles/119266.php

   Colin Toogood posted tweets and on Facebook about the Daily Pioneer report
   of gas NGO BGPSSS protesting a week ago at the Bhopal Memorial Hospital,
   and also offered links to YouTube for an Annie Leonard video. The links do
   not provide her content, so am unable to determine what was Toogood's
   point.

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-01-20 15:22:27</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/390037_bhopal-update-01-20-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>390072</id>
    <title>Yes Men monitoring 04-01-11
</title>
    <description>   The Kalamazoo Gazette reported Mike Bonanno (Igor Vamos) spoke on 3/29 at
   Western Michigan University's Miller Auditorium as the keynote for the
   Kalamazoo Peace Center's 30th Annual Peace Week.

   KPC spokesman Ben Ayer said Bonanno would "talk about journalism in a free
   society, recognizing media spin versus good reporting, truth versus
   perception in political theater, good data collection research and
   analysis techniques."

   The Gazette included three paragraphs describing the 1984 Bhopal action
   and referred to "DOW" (all caps) Chemical multiple times.

   http://www.mlive.com/news/kalamazoo/index.ssf/2011/03/yes_men_to_speak_at_western_mi.html

   -       The event was listed on the WMU website as part of Monday's news.
   It is not clear whether this is part of the school's print news. This
   announcement includes Ayer's description of Bonanno's 90-minute
   presentation, but does not mention Dow at all.

   Bonanno is to be joined by Tim DeChristopher, the activist who was
   recently convicted on charges of fraud for disrupting a federal oil and
   gas lease auction.

   The Yes Men Fix the World trailer is also offered on the web page.

   http://www.wmich.edu/wmu/news/2011/03/078.shtml

   -       There does not appear to have been any follow up media on the
   event.

   The NY Protest message board posted that "The Yes Men" and Tim
   DeChristopher will appear this afternoon from 4 - 6:30 p.m. at the
   Gallatin Theatre in NYC. The event is to be "an interactive workshop and
   brainstorm." The contact for the event is Ashwini Srinivasamohan, NYU
   Sustainability program assistant, Outreach and Engagement.

   The Yes Men tweeted about being part of a new book titled "The Next
   Eco-Warriors: 22 Young Men and Women Who Are Saving the Planet." The book
   by Emily Hunter and Farley Mowat does include a chapter on the Yes Men. It
   is to be released on April 22, in observance of Earth Day. Hunter is the
   daughter of "Greenpeace co-founders Robert and Bobbi Hunter." The book's
   listing on Amazon.com can be seen here:

   http://www.amazon.com/dp/1573244864/ref=tsm_1_fb_lk#_

   Regards,

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-04-01 21:26:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/390072_yes-men-monitoring-04-01-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mkolleth@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>390080</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 03-16-11
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   The Central Michigan Life report on Jacques Servin's presentation to CMU
   students on Monday now has a 1-minute video accompanying the print story.

   He talked briefly about the goal of "bringing under-reported news into the
   spotlight" and mentioned the Bhopal/BBC action, saying "they got onto BBC
   posing as a spokesman for the Dow Chemical Corporation." Some of the video
   appears to be a direct interview with the reporter, some is of the
   lecture.

   -       Colin Toogood posted the link to the CM-Life story on the BMA's
   Twitter account.

   http://vimeo.com/21077015

   A Nashville "Scene" entertainment media event posting announced Bonanno
   and Bichlbaum's engagement at Vanderbilt Univ. tonight.

   http://www.nashvillescene.com/pitw/archives/2011/03/16/pick-of-the-day-the-yes-men-at-vanderbilt

   Media

   IBN-Live reported on the ICMR's cancer assessment in Bhopal, that cancer
   rates increased more than 70% from 1989-2008 "in areas affected by" MIC.
   Two doctors quoted said MIC can't be ruled out when considering causes of
   cancer.

   http://ibnlive.in.com/news/bhopal-gas-tragedy-cancer-rates-treble/146063-3.html

   Times of India published an article titled "Like Bhopal, Fukushima may
   haunt future." As with the majority of recent articles on the nuclear
   crisis in Japan, the Bhopal gas tragedy is cited, but that is all.

   -       This article was posted on the BMA website today as new "news."

   http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Like-Bhopal-Fukushima-may-haunt-future/articleshow/7714818.cms

   MoneyLife magazine published the next installment of "how to" articles on
   use of the RTI act. The author is again Vinita Deshmuhk, who offered
   instructions on "writing a letter to the authorities for inspection of
   files under Section 4 of the RTI Act." She related the communication steps
   she took "in the case of Dow" when requesting to see government files, and
   noted a letter template has since been devised.

   http://www.moneylife.in/article/on-writing-a-letter-to-the-authorities-for-inspection-of-files-under-section-4-of-the-rti-act/14783.html

   The Weekend Leader, an Indian publication, posted a profile of Alok Pratap
   Singh titled "Bhopal gas victims see some hope as Alok Pratap Singh's
   fight yields fruit." The article appears to be from January, as the legal
   system information is on the MP HC's orders to Dow to present the UCC
   merger documentation and to the GoI's Task Force on the steps taken for
   "removing toxic waste from the infamous plant."

   http://www.theweekendleader.com/page.php?cy=Crusade&amp;title=Smelling-success&amp;id=371

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-03-16 16:32:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/390080_bhopal-update-03-16-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>391125</id>
    <title>ENB Vol. 25 No. 66 - UNGA Working Group on Marine Biodiversity - Issue #1
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-05-31 03:56:10</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/391125_enb-vol-25-no-66-unga-working-group-on-marine-biodiversity.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>enb@lists.iisd.ca</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>iisd-rs@iisd.org</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/33/33586_image006.gif</path><size>66</size><md5></md5><sha1>4ceed8c93e7566f0bdf8f920461efbefce4c4165</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/33/33588_image008.png</path><size>4456</size><md5></md5><sha1>6664335156af9edde6a03e6974afc5377fa04dc7</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/33/33589_image009.gif</path><size>65</size><md5></md5><sha1>c8834c0b9c3927c864394425521fed2638735bbb</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/33/33590_image014.jpg</path><size>15395</size><md5></md5><sha1>8d1921aaba363369c3f70cb0de50983b779fdb3e</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/33/33591_image013.jpg</path><size>17951</size><md5></md5><sha1>41797fe4523a875e5516ab16e64bbb7ba79be8bc</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/33/33592_image003.gif</path><size>167</size><md5></md5><sha1>b2a4454df2a03d962d3fd37b63ec6d5dee5b6c90</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/33/33594_image007.jpg</path><size>15102</size><md5></md5><sha1>3c1b7c9bb8439dac93d20d72d6da3cc60b7f916e</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/33/33595_image011.gif</path><size>60</size><md5></md5><sha1>b2b5466bf530a770659fcbc6fab5fd71ffee3381</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/33/33596_image002.jpg</path><size>45124</size><md5></md5><sha1>c421aa88a4ba11706dd0be3435103d53174b4a29</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/33/33597_image010.gif</path><size>114</size><md5></md5><sha1>a1a9565b859da40a1ac2989c827c739fda1a291c</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/33/33598_image001.jpg</path><size>15718</size><md5></md5><sha1>151bde6009f9bcefd6e58f1ae204f58f600ca9ba</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/33/33599_image005.gif</path><size>113</size><md5></md5><sha1>44a0546d2c4082742f0fdf77b2f59122dc0c1738</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/33/33600_image012.gif</path><size>110</size><md5></md5><sha1>fe285d70d24892671aceddb271bb7e61e76ae463</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/33/33601_image004.gif</path><size>62</size><md5></md5><sha1>719bd0eca98373ac8dceca863513d1193ac5779b</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/33/33793_image013.jpg</path><size>14933</size><md5></md5><sha1>080f66f99895342e73eed90eb82107978407763b</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/33/33796_image014.png</path><size>3788</size><md5></md5><sha1>71821735cd7555a579e2fe91334e06acfc962ba3</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>391208</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 05-11-11 Media #1
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   Global and Indian wire services have reported on the Indian Supreme Court
   decision to dismiss the CBI petition for enhancing the criminal charges
   for the Bhopal gas tragedy against the UCIL officials. It is reported that
   the MP Sessions Court still has the option to reframe the charges.

   The activists and gas NGOs are predictably upset, charging the Indian
   government and CBI with denying justice for the victims and pledging to
   renew their efforts.

   Associated Press, Agence France Presse and Reuters all included mentions
   of Dow's position on the Bhopal issue; initial reports from Indian wire
   services did not mention Dow.

   -       Associated Press briefly reported the situation that resulted in
   the curative petition, then the SC's decision to deny the CBI's request on
   the grounds it "never gave a sufficient explanation for why it had waited
   14 years to reinstate the stronger charges to gain longer sentences."
   Rachna Dhingra was the only activist quoted, lamenting, "Once again the
   Bhopal gas tragedy victims are being denied justice." The curative
   petition for increased compensation from UCC is noted as being on the SC's
   docket.

   This report is trending through US and Canadian morning media with pickups
   seen on US major media websites including WSJ, NYT, Washington Post and
   Forbes.com, although not prominently featured.

   http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/indian-supreme-court-rejects-plea-for-harsher-penalties-for-bhopal-gas-leak/2011/05/11/AFlLDhmG_story.html

   -       AFP quoted the SC opinion that "the curative petition is based on
   a plea that is wrong and fallacious." Gas NGO leader Balkrishna Namdeo is
   cited along with Dhingra, relating the gas victims' "shock" over the
   verdict and resolution to "express our anger across India." Dhingra said
   the victims are now focused on the MP state court, where the "state
   government and police have also filed petitions...asking for harsher
   sentences."

   Canadian and some international pickups of this report appear to be
   trending.

   http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5h14ipR_XxVHavzLw3KnU0ULef16g?docId=CNG.a29f570c0237fa3493609b25e0f549ae.751

   -       Reuters issued a report, but there does not appear to be much
   pickup, which has been the case with this source in the past several
   months on Bhopal news.

     The piece includes a quote from the SC opinion that "The materials
     produced do not meet the requirement (for homicide)" and one from
     Satinath Sarangi about "the message the Supreme Court is sending...that
     [companies] can come, you can maim, you can kill and you can get away
     with two years."

   http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/11/india-bhopal-court-idUSL3E7GB17420110511

   -       PTI reported Additional Solicitor General Indira Jai Singh's
   explanation on the Sessions Court's option to frame the more harsher
   charges against the UCIL officials. The activists are calling for
   day-to-day hearings in that court. This article included an expanded
   response from Sarangi, who "alleged that the state organs, including
   judiciary, were not keen on justice to Bhopal gas victims."

   Several Indian major media sites posted the PTI article as the first
   report on the SC opinion.

   http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article2009088.ece

   -       IANS quoted activist leaders Abdul Jabbar and ND Jayaprakash, who
   echoed the charges of justice denied and the gas victims being "ignored"
   and "denied justice." Jayaprakash explained the victims hopes for the MP
   government to "set up a special court and pursue the case on a priority
   basis, possibly within the next six months the entire retrial must end."

   Hindustan Times and other major media sites also posted this article in
   various forms.

   http://www.inewsone.com/2011/05/11/26-years-still-no-justice-say-bhopal-survivors-activists/49656

   -       India Blooms News Service quoted Rashida Bee, who announced a
   "rally in evening to protest the verdict," claimed India "is a country
   without human rights" and proclaimed a (somewhat dubious) comparison
   between the recent killing of Osama bin Laden by US forces and that India
   "could let go a US company that killed so many people in Bhopal."

     This piece noted the renewed extradition effort for Warren Anderson.

   http://www.indiablooms.com/EnvironmentDetailsPage/environmentDetails110511d.php

   -       IANS reported the BJP responded to the SC decision as "a `telling
   comment on the government's attitude'" toward the Bhopal gas victims and
   that it "is not at all interested to punish the guilty." BJP spokesperson
   Prakash Javadekar referred to Anderson being allowed to leave India in the
   days after the gas accident.

   http://news.webindia123.com/news/Articles/India/20110511/1747999.html

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-05-11 16:10:17</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/391208_bhopal-update-05-11-11-media-1-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>391344</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 03-31-11 Media
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   The morning television appearance of Max Carlson did not take place as he
   had indicated - the broadcast will be monitored again on Friday.

   In other media,

   -       Carlson was to appear on a Southern California Public Radio
   program called The Madeleine Brand Show.  A working link to hear the
   broadcast has not been located.

   http://www.scpr.org/programs/madeleine-brand/2011/03/31/bhopali/

   -       PR Web announced the launch of the online photojournalism magazine
   Auto de Fe. This is the publication for which Jack Laurenson visited
   Bhopal last year and his report is in the first edition, which is freely
   available online. Laurenson is the journalist who became ill after
   visiting the former UCIL factory site and claimed it was from toxic waste
   exposure. His report is solidly from the activist perspective, saying UCC
   "openly dumped its highly lethal waste in the surrounding areas for
   countless years," using extreme adjectives to describe conditions in
   Bhopal and the parties involved in the issue. He consistently refers to
   Satinath Sarangi as "Dr. Saringi" and describes his interview with MP
   Minister for Bhopal Gas Relief and Rehabilitation Babulal Guar
   skeptically. The text is interspersed with Laurenson's photographs.

   http://www.prweb.com/releases/2011/3/prweb8248388.htm

   http://www.autodefe.com/articles/106861-bhopal-now-the-enduring-tragedy?sms_ss=facebook&amp;at_xt=4d8c89bbc66bfd9b%2C0

   -       In India, IANS reported the MP state ordered Guar's department to
   pay Bhopal gas widows a pension of Rs 1,000 per month for the next five
   years.

   http://www.asianage.com/india/bhopal-gas-tragedy-widows-get-rs1000-pension-946

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-03-31 22:19:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/391344_bhopal-update-03-31-11-media-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>391504</id>
    <title>Re: Wikileaks founder currently in the U.S.
</title>
    <description>   Is he an Aussie?

   As a foreign national, we could revoke his travel status and deport.

   Could also be taken into custody as a material witness.

   We COULD have a sealed indictment and lock him up. Depends upon how far
   along the military case is.

   Did not read the profile.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Shane Harris &lt;shanewharris@gmail.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2010 12:31:35 -0400
   To: burton@stratfor.com&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Wikileaks founder currently in the U.S.
   Agreed. I'm surprised he came! Did you read the New Yorker profile of him?
   He's extraordinarily paranoid. 
   Can our people detain him on anything just based on suspicion re the
   cables? Would probably be a PR nightmare for the administration. 

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Jun 11, 2010, at 12:18 PM, "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

     I would not be surprised the FBI talks to him while there or seizes his
     laptop...

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Shane Harris &lt;shanewharris@gmail.com&gt;
     Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2010 12:10:45 -0400
     To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Wikileaks founder currently in the U.S.

     He's speaking on a panel today in Vegas. 
     http://data.nicar.org/conference/lasvegas10/showcase 

     --
     Shane Harris
     www.shaneharris.com
     202-489-4827 (mobile)
     202-862-3513 (office)
     Twitter: shanewharris
     Read THE WATCHERS: www.shaneharris.com/thewatchers
</description>
    <date>2010-06-11 18:36:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/391504_re-wikileaks-founder-currently-in-the-u-s-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>shanewharris@gmail.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>391555</id>
    <title>Re: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
</title>
    <description>   Maybe, but he's choked on the national stage a few times now.  I can't get
   past his smile...makes him look sleazy.

   burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     Bobby Jindel? He's some sort of Indian.

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Anya Alfano &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: Fri, 06 Nov 2009 16:58:58 -0500
     To: &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
     Cc: Bartholomew Mongoven&lt;mongoven@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
     Tim Pawlenty is about as close as the GOP gets to a sharp, young and
     eligible governor. 

     burton@stratfor.com wrote:

       Romney can't make it. Mormons are viewed as Voo Doo.

       We need a sharp young Governor.

       I also like Michelle Bachman.

       Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: "Bartholomew Mongoven" &lt;mongoven@stratfor.com&gt;
       Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 16:52:13 -0500
       To: 'Anya Alfano'&lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;; &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
       Subject: RE: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
       Pawlenty is good. 
        
       I think Romney could do it if he is himself.  He was as badly handled
       in 2008 as Al Gore was in 2000.  It should have been his nomination
       and he screwed it all up.
        
       Newt might actually pull the trigger.
        
       I think Huckabee could do it just to piss off people like me.
        
       I would tell Jeb that his time came and went when Katrina went under
       water.
        
       Frist would love to do it, but it'll take time for him to get up and
       running. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
       Sent: Friday, November 06, 2009 4:46 PM
       To: burton@stratfor.com
       Cc: Bartholomew Mongoven
       Subject: Re: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
       The neocons on top of my hill all want Tim Pawlenty. 

       burton@stratfor.com wrote:

         The GOP folks I talk to are pushing Jeb Bush. I think that is a
         mistake. Who else is out there?

         Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: "Bartholomew Mongoven" &lt;mongoven@stratfor.com&gt;
         Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 16:39:03 -0500
         To: 'Anya Alfano'&lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
         Cc: 'Fred Burton'&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
         Subject: RE: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
         Depends on where you are.  In your neck of the woods, people tend to
         think no one can do the right thing in Washington.  They think the
         world here is so corrupt that progress will always be stifled by the
         moneyed interests.  (Of course, the fact is that on domestic policy,
         it's like foreign policy -- the president can have his ideals but
         there are very few things he can do that won't screw up the
         country.  So he doesn't do them.  Watch climate, for instance.  It's
         not corporate lobbying holding him from a deal, it's China.  He
         won't commit economic suicide just to make environmentalists happy. 
         The environmentalists don't think it's suicide, so they think Obama
         has sold out.  It's sad really.)
          
         I think Mrs. P is far closer to a D.C. view of things.  The liberal
         factions in DC think Obama is being a pussy.  They don't want a
         climate deal that kills the US economy and gives everything to the
         Chinese, but they want someone to stand up to the Chinese and say
         "this is the way it's going to be."  From a West Coast
         liberal perspective, that's inflaming rivalry and inviting
         conflict.  From an East Coast perspective, that's the only way to
         get a climate bill.  Right now, he's not going to commit suicide
         (Bay Area approach) but he's not going to back the Chinese down
         (Mrs. P) either. 
          
         Obama needs to get in a fight and do something really mean and
         unfair to the right. (Gays in the military/revoke Don't Ask Don't
         tell). He's afraid of the backlash.  He could also tell the banks to
         go screw themselves. Either way, he needs to do something that says
         he doesn't care about losing political capital.  By front loading
         health care and climate, he made being politically safe his primary
         objective.  He doesn't think he can afford to piss people off until
         those two are done.  (Back to Emanuel, whose job is to tell him that
         he shouldn't front load all of his controversial proposals.)
          
          
          
          

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
         Sent: Friday, November 06, 2009 4:17 PM
         To: Bartholomew Mongoven
         Cc: 'Fred Burton'
         Subject: Re: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
         Bart, do you believe Mrs. P's thoughts are fairly mainstream among
         Obama supporters, or are most still fairly content?  I feel like I
         hear comments similar to Mrs. P all the time on other various
         issues, but my viewpoint is probably fairly skewed.  (Marx himself
         couldn't satisfy half the people here.)

         Bartholomew Mongoven wrote:

           I don't disagree that Biden is a weasel.  I think Emanuel is
           emasculating Obama by selling him on clever Clintonesque
           tactics. I would love to see Obama with someone more principled
           and less clever as Chief of Staff.  He needs a James Baker and he
           has a Donald Regan.  At least Clinton had Panetta at first to tell
           him when to not be a pussy.  Without Panetta Clinton was just a
           great tactician but he didn't get anything done (except get
           re-elected).
            
            

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
           Sent: Friday, November 06, 2009 3:58 PM
           To: 'Bartholomew Mongoven'; 'Anya Alfano'
           Subject: RE: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
           She blames Obama and Biden.  I dropped Emanuel into the soup and
           she said that he would be added to her list.  She believes Biden
           is weasel and Obama is a pussy.  I want her to fund my bid for
           Congress.  Yes, I can be bought.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: Bartholomew Mongoven [mailto:mongoven@stratfor.com]
           Sent: Friday, November 06, 2009 10:55 AM
           To: 'Fred Burton'; 'Anya Alfano'
           Subject: RE: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
           I remember that she had misgivings about supporting him during the
           primaries.  I assume that rather than support a challenger, she'll
           just sit out 2012 (unless Obama finds a spine).  I'd love to know
           if there was any talk about whether she and her set think it's him
           or his staff (esp. Emanuel) who is making his presidency so
           muddled so far.
            
            

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
           Sent: Friday, November 06, 2009 9:02 AM
           To: 'Bartholomew Mongoven'; 'Anya Alfano'
           Subject: FW: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
           Mrs. P

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
           Sent: Friday, November 06, 2009 8:01 AM
           To: 'Secure List'
           Subject: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
           From a billionaire Democratic fundraiser --
            
           The billionaire (who also funds ACORN) is greatly disappointed
           over Obama's "weakness and wimpyness" towards China ("Fred, they
           only understand strength") and Obama's failure to meet with the
           Dhali Lama.    The fundraiser stated he/she was personally
           disappointed ("betrayed") for helping Obama get into The White
           House and does not intend to support Obama next election, absent a
           drastic turn-around. 
            
            
</description>
    <date>2009-11-06 23:08:21</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/391555_re-insight-china-tibet-obama-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mongoven@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>391771</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 06-14-11
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   Hindustan Times reported on a group of disaster victims in India who
   "still await justice" - the families of those killed in the 1997 Uphaar
   cinema fire. The [Association of Victims of the Uphaar Tragegy] president
   Neelam Krishnamoorthy invoked the Bhopal gas tragedy regarding a 2009
   legislative proposal by the AVUT for "legislation to prevent man-made
   tragedies in public places. For over two years, the matter has been
   pending with the Law Commission."

   http://www.hindustantimes.com/Uphaar-victims-still-await-justice/Article1-709079.aspx

   Rachna Dhingra emailed the ICJB distribution list with an item that has
   nothing to do with the Bhopal issue.

   She passed along a post from a left-wing US blog discussing a US Chamber
   of Commerce letter to Cass Sunstein, administrator of the Office of
   Information and Regulatory Affairs, "telling him to block the regulation
   of extremely dangerous chemicals in consumer plastics," i.e. phthalates
   and BPA.

   Dow is mentioned at the end of the post, along with P&amp;G, as having
   "contributed millions to the Chamber's war chest in recent years."

   http://www.americablog.com/2011/06/us-chamber-of-commerce-fighting.html

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-06-14 17:18:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/391771_bhopal-update-06-14-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>391809</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 08-09-11 Media #2
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   UK media coverage of the Olympics stadium issue:

   -       The Daily Telegraph quoted "Laurie Flynn, chairman of the trustees
   of the Bhopal Medical Appeal" as being "appalled" at the Dow sponsorship,
   and called for the "Olympic Movement" to reconsider the stadium wrap deal.
   Flynn said there are "court cases involving Dow outstanding in India and
   the United States, and that `many hundreds of people' had been
   contaminated in the years since the disaster."

   Dow's position on Bhopal is not given, but the London Olympic Committee
   statement about Dow, Bhopal and the sponsorship is.

   There was one brief comment about the Olympics being all about "hard
   cash"; the article has been shared about 35 times.

   http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/olympics/8689856/London-2012-Olympics-sponsor-criticised-over-links-to-firm-responsible-for-Bhopal-disaster-Union-Carbide.html

   -       A second Telegraph article reported on the current rioting in
   London taking place at the same time 200 Olympic delegates were arriving
   in the city. One version of this article tied Flynnn's comments about Dow
   and Bhopal at the end. Full text available on request.

   -       The Times reported "Olympic curtain deal is 'dancing on graves of
   Bhopal' with much the same content as the BBC's article, although
   Sarangi's quotes are paraphrased. Sports Minister Hugh Robertson said
   since the IOC had signed the ten-year sponsorship with Dow, "there was no
   reason we should not follow them." Dow's position on the Bhopal issue ends
   the piece. Full text available on request; online access appears to
   require paid subscription.

   India media:

   -       PTI reported the Indian Olympic Association (IOA) expressed
   "concern" over the Dow sponsorship and Bhopal issue. The group's acting
   president, VK Malhotra said the GoI "should look into it." This piece was
   picked up multiple times in India media, with print appearances in The
   Mint (p9, in "need to know" briefs) and Daily Pioneer's New Delhi edition
   (p16, sports section, bottom).

   http://www.rediff.com/sports/report/ioa-shows-concern-at-london-games-link-with-dow-chemical/20110809.htm

   -       A post of the 8/8 PTI story on the wrap sponsorship received
   several reader comments, including "Killed those DOW Chemical b'tards
   there itself."

     (Daily Pioneer's print edition paired the two PTI stories on p16 at the
     bottom)

   http://www.rediff.com/sports/slide-show/slide-show-1-bhopal-gas-disaster-wrap-over-london-olympics/20110808.htm

   -       Hindustan Times' sports sections include a commentary by writer B
   Shrikant, who pointed out Malhotra "forgets that his organization receives
   money from [Dow] via IOC." Shirkant added "IOC's deal with Dow Chemicals
   is already a year old and can't be terminated now because of Malhotra's
   "grave concerns."

     This appeared in the Mumbai (p 18) and New Delhi (p 21) editions.

   http://www.hindustantimes.com/Malhotra-bites-the-hand-that-feeds-IOA/Article1-731022.aspx

   -       Asian Age's New Delhi print edition included a short item titled
   "British Olympics organisers play down Dow issue." The three paragraph
   article consists of one saying the LOC "tried to play down the
   controversy" over Dow's sponsorship, the second relates briefly Dow's
   purchase of UCC, and the third lists the several corporate Olympic
   partners. Full text available on request. The positioning is p8 on the
   left side, just above the fold.

   -       IANS reported on the activist intent to hold "a parallel Olympics
   in London," quoting BMA trustee Tim Edwards, who is currently in Bhopal.
   He added, "Bhopal is not the only place where Dow or Union Carbide has
   killed thousands of people from their poisonous units. They did it in
   Costa Rica, Indonesia and Vietnam too. So all the people and the children
   who became disabled will participate in this special Olympics." This
   article also included comments from Sarangi, Abdul Jabbar and Farha
   Edwards (Tim's wife).

   http://www.deccanherald.com/content/182298/parallel-games-disabled-dow-sponsors.html

   -       IANS, Daily Pioneer and Daily News &amp; Analysis also reported on the
   ICJB's support of Anna Hazare's anti-corruption campaign and their press
   release about the drugs supplied for gas victims. DNA's Indore print
   edition placed the report at the top center of p5.

   http://www.nagalandpost.com/ChannelNews/National/NationalNews.aspx?news=TkVXUzEwMDAwMzgwNA%3d%3d-ZT7iVDRvptM%3d

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-08-09 17:49:35</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/391809_bhopal-update-08-09-11-media-2-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>392233</id>
    <title>Fw: Wikileaks founder currently in the U.S.
</title>
    <description>     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Shane Harris &lt;shanewharris@gmail.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2010 12:10:45 -0400
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Wikileaks founder currently in the U.S.

   He's speaking on a panel today in Vegas.*
   http://data.nicar.org/conference/lasvegas10/showcase*

   --
   Shane Harris
   www.shaneharris.com
   202-489-4827 (mobile)
   202-862-3513 (office)
   Twitter: shanewharris
   Read THE WATCHERS: www.shaneharris.com/thewatchers
</description>
    <date>2010-06-11 18:11:44</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 23:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/392233_fw-wikileaks-founder-currently-in-the-u-s-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>PosillicoM2@state.gov</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>392305</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] [Analytical &amp; Intelligence Comments] RE: The Dismantlingof a Suspected Russian Intelligence Operation
</title>
    <description>   I'll send him a response back.

   Clearly, either an old UK or Aussie cold warrior who understands the risk
   and knows the Great Game.

   Strobe and Gore (as VP) were agents of influence of the KGB.

   I shutter to think how many Obama appointees are reporting to the enemy.
   Fortunately, Biden is too dumb to be reporting to anyone.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: ct-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 02 Jul 2010 07:28:08 -0500
   To: CT AOR&lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;; EurAsia Team&lt;eurasia@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [CT] [Analytical &amp; Intelligence Comments] RE: The Dismantling
   of a Suspected Russian Intelligence Operation
   any thoughts?

   cj.ward@tastel.net.au wrote:

     Christopher John Ward (Dr) sent a message using the contact form at
     https://www.stratfor.com/contact.

     For the authors.

     Please accept my sincerest congratulations on a most comprehensive and
     comprehensible paper.  As a retired counterintelligence expert (sorry
     not to be able to tell you more by law), there are a few comments I
     would like to address perhaps in the form of a description or my
     world-view concerning Russian intelligence operations abroad.

     Firstly , it concerns me greatly that the mainstream press appears to
     have problems with the situation in Russia.  I served through the
     greater part of the Cold War and  became aware of the number of times it
     nearly became " hot," in fact many more times than revealed in history
     books. In the early 1980s, there was no hint that the USSR would implode
     but I held the view then that even if communism was renounced as the
     doctrinal basis for Soviet actions, the West would still have to content
     with a fairly formidable power and certainly one that would continue
     with imperial pretensions first directed under the Czars especially a
     desire for warm water ports.

     The disastrous wipeout of the Soviet/Russian economy after the fall of
     the Berlin Wall and the events of 1991 in Moscow led to so-called
     assistance from the West, principally the US, to transform the command
     economy of Russia and introduce free-market principles. Under the
     auspices of the Clinton administration, a seemingly experienced team
     went to Moscow to assist the Russians. The true story of that adventure
     put me in mind of  post- Civil War US history, when the South was
     invaded by carpetbaggers. That scandal had two interesting players on
     the US side namely, Vice-President Al Gore and Strobe Talbott, about
     whom some of my FBI acquaintances had deep misgivings, more latterly
     solidified by Comrade J,  the SVR defector.  There was also a
     Congressional Enquiry which was not widely publicized: it can be found
     at http://www.fas.org/news/russia/2000/russia/

     The chaos of those years was bound to lead to authoritarian leadership.
     In a mirror image of what happened to the Weimar Republic in Germany
     (which produced Hitler), Russia could not continue under Boris Yeltsin
     and when it was announced that a somewhat obscure former KGB lieutenant
     colonel Vladimir Putin would replace him as president, I became as
     curious as any Russia watcher. Because I write under several different
     names, I don't expect to get any credit for the term - the
     "Putinization" of Russia which I described as a process of consolidation
     of power and a shakeout of vested interests. It was known for years that
     the Russia maffiya was under the control of the KGB and the corruption
     that went with the old Soviet nomenklatura was replaced by perks and new
     corruption for the siloviki, which became the basis of Putin's power. By
     my estimation, the consolidation of Russia under Putin, which I
     described as Putinism, was complete half way through his second term of
     president. In many respects, with freedom of religion and toleration of
     free enterprise up to a point, Russia differed from the Soviet Union.

     However, while many institutions of the communist regime were removed
     or  overhauled, the intelligence services were not affected to any great
     deal, despite a great deal of wishful thinking in the West and
     sleight-of-hand in Moscow: it was always business as usual. The GRU,
     which was always underestimated by Western services continued unchecked
     and unreformed and Putin increased their budget, built a new
     headquarters and announced the identity of George Koval to the press as
     one of the key GRU agents who had penetrated the US nuclear program. I
     read about the case of the so-called baseball spy with incredulity
     because his name is barely mentioned in any book concerning the spy
     rings focused on the US government and the Manhattan project. It was
     distinctly out of character for a former KGB officer to laud the GRU.

     The division of the KGB into the SVR and FSB doesn't require any comment
     from me because it was all pretty public and many of the same old names
     cropped up in  new positions. I was retired by then but old spy catchers
     rarely fade away: they become disenchanted and sometimes feel betrayed.

     I find it quite astonishing as well as alarming that for years, there
     have been reports both official and unofficial that the level of Russian
     espionage against the West exceeded Cold War levels. Indeed, Joseph
     Farah's G2 has a regular who is closely connected with UK intelligence
     and the message has been the same. From what I have been able to
     ascertain, the principal focus of legal rezidencies has been to collect
     scientific and technical information but influence operations and work
     among emigres apparently continues.

     I am not in a position to judge why the illegal ring was wound up at
     this time. Surely, when Pres. Obama was having a cheeseburger with
     Dmitry Medvedev recently, he knew that the FBI had closed the trap and I
     wondered idly why he didn't bother to ask the Russian President about
     the levels of espionage and perhaps give him a gentle warning. As
     anybody involved in counterintelligence is aware, illegal espionage
     rings are expensive, time-consuming and resource hungry and require a
     high degree of professionalism and patriotism. It is fairly obvious that
     the legal residency of the SVR was used to service special needs of the
     illegal network, using brush contacts and dead drops. Judging by the
     number of people rounded up, this was more than one illegal network and
     fairly obviously, the FBI, probably in conjunction with NSA managed to
     intercept messages and conduct high quality surveillance on suspects,
     including those from the Russian mission at the UN. It will be
     interesting to see whether the US Department of State  asks for the
     quiet removal of the official who  serviced in the ring in New York. In
     my view, officers from the Illegals Directorate are usually fairly
     difficult to identify and leaving them in place is a calculated risk.

     In summing up, I have to agree with everything you have written about
     the case but the fact remains that the US public, along with most of the
     Western world, has failed to see that the Russians still have grand
     objectives and that espionage is a key tool in gathering critical
     information and influencing opinion. The Russians intend to become a
     great power but they will not be able to match the US. On the other
     hand, they are making overtures to all their old allies from the days of
     the Soviet Union and adding a few new ones.

     I will not pretend to be a wiseacre about George W. Bush and the global
     war on terror. I watched it happen live on TV on that dreadful day, 9/11
     and my heart went out to former acquaintances in the US as well as
     friends. The much vaunted `peace dividend,' which saw drastic reductions
     in the size of security and intelligence organizations after the Cold
     War was deemed to be over and won,  produced a massive loss of
     experience and coverage, which can never be completely replaced. It is
     to the credit of the FBI that their counterintelligence staff rounded up
     10 out of the 11 suspects. There has been much talk about US
     intelligence organizations failing to "join the dots" about 9/11 and
     subsequent terrorist activity and I hope that it is possible to persuade
     some of those arrested to confess their crimes and for
     counterintelligence to carefully delineate everything they got right in
     this instance. The fringe dwellers of the press and media are doing
     their best to laugh at this particular case which reveals their total
     ignorance of firstly the Cold War and why the US and its allies
     confronted the UtSSR and secondly, the almost total triumph of the left
     in airbrushing history.   I am quite sure that it will be publicly
     demonstrated that this case had it all in the vernacular, brush
     contacts, dead drops, surveillance, plenty of film and  the material to
     illustrate that the SVR still uses the same training methods and
     tradecraft as the KGB. I continue to be astounded by the number of
     so-called experts who believe that this illegal network was somehow
     superfluous to requirements and their product could be gained through
     Google or by other means. Yet anyone with a background in intelligence
     knows full well why illegal networks are established and maintained.

     Lastly, US illegal networks in Russia have usually been compromised
     either by traitors at home or the thoroughness of the KGB.  I doubt that
     it is any easier today.

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-07-02 14:48:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/392305_re-ct-analytical-and-intelligence-comments-re-the.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>392546</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 07-25-11
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   There were several more pickups of the Bhopal NGOs' press statement from
   Saturday, including India Today, which laid out in fairly clear reporting
   the sequence of events between UCC and the GoI that the NGOs were trying
   to vilify.

   India Today bought into some of the activist point of view, describing the
   negotiated settlement as seeking "exemption from any liability"; the four
   types of injury classes as "camouflaging" potential long-term health
   effects from the gas leak; and as "shocking" that the settlement specified
   UCC was not subject to "future claims...arising out of, or connected with,
   the Bhopal gas leak disaster against either or both of them, their
   affiliates, directors, officers and employees."

   The article also noted the settlement "freed Carbide of any liability in
   India."

   Rachna Dhingra emailed the text of the India Today article to the
   "remember Bhopal" email distribution list.

   http://indiatoday.intoday.in/site/story/bhopal-gas-tragedy-union-carbide-india-deal/1/146044.html

   -       The Indian Muslims (TwoCircles.net, Ummid.com) post of the NGOs
   press statement was titled "Documents reveal Union Carbide wanted to pay
   compensation to victims."

   -       The Daily News &amp; Analysis appears to be the only print paper that
   published items on the NGOs' press conference, with articles on the front
   page (below the fold) on p5 at the top, of the Indore edition. The
   Saturday edition had a p5 version of the PTI article in which Rachna
   Dhingra claimed there was 27,000 more tonnes of chemical waste at the
   former UCIL factory site's solar ponds. Full texts available on request.

   Law et al News reported on the Maharashtra government's application for
   intervention in the MP High Court case on transportation and disposal of
   the Bhopal factory waste. This version also refers to the material as
   "radioactive." The article does provide the filing's two main points:

   -       A No Objection Certificate for the waste transport was not
   obtained, and

   -       Madhya Pradesh has an incinerator

   The rest of the article appears to be identical to that reported yesterday
   from the Daily Pioneer.

   This article was posted on the BMA website.

   http://www.lawetalnews.com/NewsDetail.asp?newsid=4395

   Times of India reported the DRDO and its parent the Defence Research
   Development Establishment (DRDE) told the ToI the waste material is not
   hazardous, is "nowhere as dangerous as the gas that caused the Bhopal
   tragedy, and is not likely to cause any damage due to any accident." The
   article related the DRDO process at the incinerator,which "should not be
   confused with the Bhopal gas leak." The DRDO applied for approval for the
   incineration from the Ministry of Environment and Forests, which it said
   "may be enough" and is "expected at any time." The DRDO reiterated the
   state of Madhya Pradesh is responsible for transporting the material.

   The article did note: "At the same time, some experts, including
   government officials, were of the opinion that the waste should be cleaned
   up by Dow Chemicals of the USA. This would be an example of 'polluter
   pays' principle, they said."

   http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/nagpur/Bhopal-waste-not-hazardous-says-DRDO/articleshow/9349720.cms

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-07-25 18:11:52</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/392546_bhopal-update-07-25-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>392580</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 07-11-11
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   Business Standard reported over the weekend the chemical waste from the
   former UCIL factory is to be disposed of at a Defense Research and
   Development (DRDO) facility at Nagpur. According to the article, approval
   has already been granted by the MP Pollution Control Board and DRDO is
   said to be ready to do the work "any time."

   The article ended with a quote from Rachna Dhingra, who said Environment
   Minister Jairam Ramesh assured the NGOs they would "be informed whenever
   there is movement of waste."

   The piece was also in the 7/9 print edition on p4 in the top right-hand
   corner.

   http://business-standard.com/india/news/union-carbide-toxic-waste-to-be-disposedat-drdo-nagpur/442112/

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-07-11 16:24:04</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/392580_bhopal-update-07-11-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>392726</id>
    <title>Bhopal update 09-19-11
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   IANS reported the Bhopal NGOs are putting together a "traveling Bhopal gas
   tragedy museum" in the form of a bus that is intended to tour the country
   for eleven months through most of 2012, then return to Bhopal to be a
   permanent exhibit. The project is planned to be ready to open by April
   2012, be on display in Bhopal for one month, then set out on tour.

   A new fund, the Remember Bhopal Trust, has been set up for the museum, and
   museologist Rama Lakshmi has been engaged by the gas survivors to curate
   the exhibit. Lakshmi told IANS museums "telling the stories of social
   movements" are found across the globe as "safe sites for unsafe ideas"
   such as the Holocaust or Apartheid.

   Satinath Sarangi said the bus museum is being developed because the
   gas-affected have not been consulted over any government-led gas accident
   memorial plans, and "the government has no moral right to memorialise
   because it is complicit in the injustice meted out to the community."

   The piece has been picked up about a dozen times across Indian media.

   http://zeenews.india.com/news/nation/bhopal-gas-tragedy-feeds-a-people-s-museum_732338.html

   Sarangi appeared on NewsX live panel program "Waking the Green Giant" with
   CSE Deputy Director General Chandra Bhushan and Greenpeace India
   campaigner Divya Raghunathan (also spelled Raghunandan). The 26-minute
   program covered a lot of ground, moving from water and air pollution to
   food contamination, and also the Bhopal gas tragedy (at 19:51 in the
   program). Sarangi highlighted "The Other Disaster" of pre-gas leak UCIL's
   waste disposal, which he said was designed by UCC and resulted in the
   broader environmental contamination and "horrific birth defects" in the
   current population.

   The moderator asked about the DRDO incineration proposal, with Sarangi
   responding the DRDO has been incinerating chemical weapons without the
   knowledge of the Maharashtra Pollution Control Board. Raghunanthan
   recalled the 2002 campaign of "1,000 Bhopals" to raise awareness of other
   industrial pollution sites in the country.

   In an interesting point near the end of the program was Bhushan defending
   Jairam Ramesh's decisions during his tenure as Environment and Forests
   Minister.

   The program is available to view on YouTube, although there have only been
   about 30 viewings. The program was uploaded on Sept. 17; it was unclear
   when it was broadcast.

   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adU8uP8rUW0

   Daily News &amp; Analysis reported the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI)
   reported the Bhopal gas victims were subjected to unethical drug trials at
   the Bhopal Memorial Hospital and Research Center. An inspection team also
   found other regulatory violations at the hospital during a visit in August
   2010. There is no indication of any ramifications of the DCGI's report.
   The MP government's report on the drug trials is still pending.

   The article appeared on the front page of DNA's Indore edition today.

   http://daily.bhaskar.com/article/MP-BHO-unethical-drug-trials-on-gas-victims-dgci-fumes-2441457.html

   Youth Kiwaaz, an Indian youth politics and law forum, published an
   analysis titled "The Role Economic Forces Played In Influencing Legal
   Developments After Bhopal Gas Leak." The conclusion is "The failure of the
   Indian government to hold the UCC liable and pierce the corporate veil
   goes to show that UOI was ready to industrialize the nation even at the
   cost of the Bhopal victims."

   http://www.youthkiawaaz.com/2011/09/the-role-economic-forces-played-in-influencing-legal-developments-after-bhopal-gas-leak/

   Economic Times published a lengthy report on the "Life and Death of Shehla
   Masood," the Right To Information activist from who was shot and killed
   outside her Bhopal home several weeks ago. The writer observed the Bhopal
   gas activist community "has never really warmed up to Shehla's cause,"
   which Rachna Dingra commented may have been because "she wasn't so known
   in activist circles." She noted RTI activists tend to be more "involved
   with government."

   http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/The-life-and-death-of-Shehla-Masood/848087/

   Also of interest, the Sundance Film Festival is going to spend one day of
   its 2012 festival screening films in nine cities around the country,
   including Ann Arbor.

   http://realscreen.com/2011/09/16/sundance-film-festival-traveling-to-nine-american-cities/

   The only activist information to report at this time, is the ICJB Boston
   (Boston 4 Bhopal) group has a meeting this evening in Cambridge, possibly
   to prepare for protesting Friday's Dow recruiting session at Tufts.

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-09-19 18:33:57</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/392726_bhopal-update-09-19-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>393353</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 10-10-11 bandh protest Oct 11
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   Five organizations representing Bhopal gas victims have called for a
   Bhopal Bandh (a large strike) to be held on Tuesday, October 11. The
   protest is to demand the Centre and state government "present actual
   figures of health damages...in the curative petition that would be heard
   in the Supreme Court soon." According to Satinath Sarangi and Rachna
   Dhingra, "Union Carbide, Dow Chemical and both the governments have
   presented thoroughly unscientific data on the deaths and health damage
   caused by the disaster," and they alleged that internal Union Carbide
   documents "showed that 93 percent of the survivors have been wrongfully
   categorized as temporarily injured" and given the wrong compensation. The
   groups stated they have "received support from all workers, traders and
   mass organizations for the proposed bandh." The Pioneer and IBNS reported
   the groups will also "be taking out an awareness rally from Peer Gate on
   Monday at 3pm."

   -IANS

   http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?cu_no=2&amp;item_no=462718&amp;version=1&amp;template_id=40&amp;parent_id=22

   -UNI

   http://news.webindia123.com/news/articles/India/20111008/1847348.html

   -The Pioneer

   http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/bhopal/12106-bhopal-bandh-on-tuesday-to-support-gas-victims.html

   -IBNS

   http://www.newkerala.com/news/2011/worldnews-83369.html

   http://www.newkerala.com/news/2011/worldnews-83885.html

    

    

   Marissa Martin

   Business Intelligence Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

    

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.

    
</description>
    <date>2011-10-10 16:55:28</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/393353_bhopal-update-10-10-11-bandh-protest-oct-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mmartin@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>393478</id>
    <title>Yes Men monitoring 10-14-11
</title>
    <description>   Yes Man Andy Bichlbaum has traveled to Los Angeles for the "Occupy" action
   there. A short YouTube video shows him explaining he had "spent lots of
   time" at the Occupy New York protest and the LA version is "lovely, keep
   it up."

   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ukyZlhnppH4

   The Yes Men tweeted once this week, encouraging readers to join the Occupy
   New York gathering.

   Regards,

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-10-14 22:11:26</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/393478_yes-men-monitoring-10-14-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mkolleth@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>393640</id>
    <title>DOW CONFIDENTIAL -- Bhopal monitoring 09-09-11
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-09-10 00:05:12</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 20:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/393640_dow-confidential-bhopal-monitoring-09-09-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>JDavis5@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>rchitkara@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/34/34506_Activist info 09-08-11 BMA - factsheet.pdf</path><size>102338</size><md5></md5><sha1>41d2370f29a2b02f242d6fea3202cfbb0034fc5c</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/34/34511_Activist info 09-08-11 Wikileaks - Dow.pdf</path><size>54614</size><md5></md5><sha1>a8adaa64f94a4fad86cfc91e84af208dd4472d5f</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/34/34720_Blog 09-05-11 Games Monitor.pdf</path><size>413633</size><md5></md5><sha1>beb9839a5765f6740996c2d22caf0c71dd898bd6</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/34/34721_Activist info 09-05-11 BMA%20Briefing.pdf</path><size>920960</size><md5></md5><sha1>726d8c1c36b03019da276d240db3d81a1efe0701</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/34/34722_Activist info 09-05-11 Bhopali - ICJB conference.pdf</path><size>82234</size><md5></md5><sha1>7de8394a308e76d204bf3f584925e2cc98838e6e</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/34/34736_Activist email 09-07-11 YM fundraising.pdf</path><size>26976</size><md5></md5><sha1>ea8b06d4a0c6a9871639a71ab82a671cb7f38929</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/34/34737_Social media 09-07-11 ICJB US conference - Facebook.pdf</path><size>71992</size><md5></md5><sha1>11e517020b6f6deb60b7e8e01c709f51b30c5d55</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/34/34738_Social media 09-03 to 09-09-11 anti-Dow Olympic FB page.pdf</path><size>33938</size><md5></md5><sha1>28490d607e57b732222da182c47c0cfad947b5b7</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/34/34739_Social media 09-07-11 ICJB US conference attendees - Facebook.pdf</path><size>110083</size><md5></md5><sha1>7e0db374a35d25c0bb3a92f1e788bb2ea783d626</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/34/34740_Activist info 09-09-11 YM kickstarter page.pdf</path><size>83761</size><md5></md5><sha1>be8660361f79d4c182069a9cc1386927092709f6</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/34/34741_Activist info 09-08-11 GP Intl blog.pdf</path><size>61414</size><md5></md5><sha1>800a05cb262f29f938c34130afd0b79b5f766ada</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>393642</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 09-06-11
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   The media so far today is all tangential to the core Bhopal issues.

   -       Three are pieces on the need for a National Health Bill in India,
   mostly based on a speech by N.R. Madhava Menon, who "referred to the 
   Bhopal Gas Tragedy" as illustrating "inadequate" government resources and
   programs to address health and justice needs. The appearances were via
   IANS, PTI, and India Pharma News.

   IANS: 
   http://in.news.yahoo.com/early-enactment-national-health-bill-needed-175817027.html

   -       Four are on literary references to the Bhopal Gas Tragedy: the
   Siddhartha Deb book "The Beautiful and the Damned" that includes a section
   on gas activist Abdul Jabbar, (Business Standard, India Today and The
   Brooklyn Rail); a fiction piece by Shashi Warrior, "So Betrayed" relates a
   gas survivor's account of the how the tragedy affected his family's lives;
   (Business Standard); and a Frontline review of two books on corruption in
   India included a photo of the Bhopal gas activists submitting RTI
   applications in New Delhi.

   http://www.flonnet.com/stories/20110923281907500.htm

   -       Mail Today cited the Bhopal gas tragedy in workplace rulings  by
   the Indian Supreme Court in an article on judicial activism in Pakistan.

   From activist resources:

   -       The Chingari Trust blog posted a photo and note from Slumdog
   Millionaire actor Dev Patel resulting from a recent visit he made to the
   Chingari facility. He complimented Champa Devi Shukla and Rashida Bee as
   "extraordinary individuals."

   -       UK activist Ian Jarvis posted a new item to his blog reporting on
   his stay at the Sambhavna Clinic. This post was solely about the workings
   of the clinic's environmentally friendly clothes washer.

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-09-06 17:25:05</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/393642_bhopal-update-09-06-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>393926</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 09-16-11
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   The BMA website has a new issue of the "777" BMA newsletter, credited as
   the Summer 2011 issue. The issue features the Chingari Trust, the water
   supply situation in Bhopal, the Bhopali film, and the Glastonbury
   Festival. There are only a few items that are truly interesting.

   -       Peter Finnigan wrote an introductory column to the issue and said
   the "long legal and political struggle" has brought "further
   frustrations," noting the Supreme Court dismissed the criminal case
   curative petition. He explained briefly the remaining curative petition
   issues on compensation amounts and eligibility, and said the remediation
   issue is at a "legal stalemate."

     Finnigan also noted the BMA hopes the Bhopali documentary "will be
     widely available in the near future."

   -       The Chingari Trust article is unremarkable, but is accompanied by
   photos from "Alex Masi/Focus For Humanity."

   -       Colin Toogood wrote a brief article on the issue of supplying
   water to Bhopal's gas-affected neighborhoods as "the ongoing crisis." He
   reported the pipeline system project "was rudimentary and laid along the
   ground, making it easily ruptured." Most residents still rely on the water
   tankers arriving, although the frequency of delivery varies from 2-3 days
   to more than a week, which leaves the residents to rely on the water pumps
   that are alleged to be contaminated.

   -       A report on the Bhopali film has description from film maker Max
   Carlson about his and Kirk Palayan's visits to Bhopal and the events and
   information used to create the film. The piece ends with "Release details
   for `Bhopali' are still being finalized."

   -       The Glastonbury Festival report by Roz Shearn claims the event was
   highly successful, as "literally thousands of people came to visit" the
   BMA's installation of tent and "sculpture garden." Shearn explained the
   BMA litterpicker fundraising was intended to "make a link between cleaning
   up Glastonbury and cleaning up Bhopal." A list of the individuals involved
   in the effort is included.

     Due to the size of the file (nearly 4MB), the issue is available on
     request, either in its entirety, or as the individual articles.

   The BMA Twitter and Facebook accounts have just one new item - a CSRWire
   press release about a Merck water, sanitation and hygiene initiative in
   India. The BMA comment is: "This is a decent initiative. But, wouldn't it
   be great to see another well-known US Corporation clean all of the heavy
   metals, volatile organic compounds and solvents out of the ground water in
   Bhopal?"

   The only media to report today is a Down To Earth article asking why the
   Bhopal dharnas in New Delhi did not receive the same resources and
   considerations as the Anna Hazare RTI protest.

   http://www.downtoearth.org.in/content/idea-corruption

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-09-16 20:45:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/393926_bhopal-update-09-16-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>393929</id>
    <title>Climate Change Daily Feed - 15 September 2011 - Climate Change Policy &amp; Practice
</title>
    <description>                Having trouble viewing this email? Please try our Browser Version.                 
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ 
|  IISD                                                                                          | 
|Reporting                                                                                       | 
|Services              Climate Change Daily Feed - Climate Change Policy &amp; Practice              | 
|- Climate A daily compilation of items recently posted to the Climate Change Policy &amp; Practice  | 
| Change               knowledgebase of international activities on climate change               | 
|Policy &amp;                                                                                        | 
|Practice                                                                                        | 
|                                Latest News - 15 September 2011                                 | 
| GEF Promotes Climate Change Dialogue with       63rd CDM Executive Board Meeting Agenda Open   | 
| African Youth                                   for Comments                                   | 
|     Read More: GEF Promotes Climate Change       Read More: 63rd CDM Executive Board Meeting   | 
|          Dialogue with African Youth                       Agenda Open for Comments            | 
|                                                                                                | 
| 14_September 2011: The Global Environment       12_September 2011: The Executive Board of the  | 
| Facility (GEF), through the                     Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has invited  | 
| initiative Connect4Climate has initiated an     input from the public on the annotated agenda  | 
| interactive dialogue on climate change issues   for its 63rd meeting, which is scheduled to    | 
| amongst African youth and social media users    take place from 25-29 September 2011, in       | 
| around the world. continued...                  Quito, Ecuador. continued...                   | 
|                                                                                                | 
| UNDP Launches Guidebook on Designing National   FAO Launches Global Soil Partnership for Food  | 
| Climate Financing Mechanisms                    Security and Climate Change Adaptation and     | 
|     Read More: UNDP Launches Guidebook on       Mitigation                                     | 
|      Designing National Climate Financing            Read More: FAO Launches Global Soil       | 
|                   Mechanisms                      Partnership for Food Security and Climate    | 
|                                                        Change Adaptation and Mitigation        | 
| 14_September 2011: The UN Development                                                          | 
| Programme (UNDP) has launched report that       9_September 2011: The Food and Agriculture     | 
| provides a step-by-step guide to developing     Organization of the UN (FAO) is calling for a  | 
| countries in setting up national climate funds  renewed international effort to promote and    | 
| and in making informed decisions on climate     assure healthy and fertile soils as a          | 
| financing options. The guidebook, "Blending     component of the new Global Soil Partnership   | 
| Climate Finance through National Climate        for Food Security and Climate Change           | 
| Funds: A Guidebook for the Design and           Adaptation and Mitigation. continued...        | 
| Establishment of National Funds to Achieve                                                     | 
| Climate Change Priorities," is based on UNDP's                                                 | 
| experience with 750 funds comprising over US$5                                                 | 
| billion in resources from various donors.                                                      | 
| continued...                                                                                   | 
|                                                                                                | 
|             Climate Change Policy &amp; Practice Calendar: Current &amp; Upcoming Events               | 
|  Centralized Annual Reviews 2011                    Bonn, Germany            29 Aug - 24 Sep   | 
|  28th Session on the European Forestry                                                         | 
|  Commission Working Party on the                        Turkey               12 Sep - 16 Sep   | 
|  Management of Mountain Watersheds                                                             | 
|  Fourth Special Session of the African                                                         | 
|  Ministerial Conference on the                       Bamako, Mali            12 Sep - 16 Sep   | 
|  Environment (AMCEN)                                                                           | 
|  Asia Regional Meeting Preparatory to              Bali, Indonesia           14 Sep - 16 Sep   | 
|  UNCCD COP 10                                                                                  | 
|  Researchers' Workshop and Conference on                                                       | 
|  Climate Change and Migration in Asia and        Manila, Philippines         14 Sep - 16 Sep   | 
|  the Pacific                                                                                   | 
|  The Ocean Carbon Cycle at a Time of                Paris, France            14 Sep - 16 Sep   | 
|  Change: Synthesis and Vulnerabilities                                                         | 
|  CLEAN-Linking Open Data Webinar                       virtual                   15 Sep        | 
|  15th Meeting of the Adaptation Fund                Bonn, Germany            15 Sep - 16 Sep   | 
|  Board                                                                                         | 
|  26th Meeting of the Joint Implementation           Bonn, Germany            15 Sep - 16 Sep   | 
|  Supervisory Committee                                                                         | 
|  Pre-UNFCCC COP 17 African Energy             Johannesburg, South Africa     15 Sep - 16 Sep   | 
|  Ministers Conference                                                                          | 
|  International Symposium on Costs and                                                          | 
|  Benefits of REDD Plus: What, Who, How          Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia       19 Sep - 20 Sep   | 
|  and When?                                                                                     | 
|  Quantifying and managing land use                 Campinas, Brazil          19 Sep - 21 Sep   | 
|  impacts of bioenergy                                                                          | 
|  63rd Meeting of the CDM Executive Board            Bonn, Germany            19 Sep - 23 Sep   | 
|  AU Regional Geothermal Working Group              Kampala, Uganda           19 Sep - 23 Sep   | 
|  Meeting                                                                                       | 
|  FANRPAN Annual High Level Regional Food              Swaziland              19 Sep - 23 Sep   | 
|  Security Policy Dialogue                                                                      | 
|  UN Private Sector Forum: Access to       New York, United States of America     20 Sep        | 
|  Energy For All                                                                                | 
|  UNGA High-Level Event on Desertification New York, United States of America     20 Sep        | 
|  CBD Africa Regional Consultation and                                                          | 
|  Capacity Building Workshop on REDD+,          Cape Town, South Africa       20 Sep - 23 Sep   | 
|  Including on Relevant Biodiversity                                                            | 
|  Safeguards                                                                                    | 
|  UNFCCC Workshop on Promoting Risk                                                             | 
|  Management Approaches on the Specific                                                         | 
|  Needs and Concerns of Developing Country           Bonn, Germany                21 Sep        | 
|  Parties Arising from the Impact of the                                                        | 
|  Implementation of Response Measures                                                           | 
|  Experts Meeting on Climate Change                                                             | 
|  Education for Sustainable Development             Nassau, Bahamas           21 Sep - 23 Sep   | 
|  and Adaptation in SIDS                                                                        | 
|  Seventh "Environment for Europe"                 Astana, Kazakhstan         21 Sep - 23 Sep   | 
|  Ministerial Conference                                                                        | 
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|    Subscribe to our iCalendar and your computer will gain access to all the events listed in   | 
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|            Please send suggestions for articles to Alice Bisiaux at alice@iisd.org             | 
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</description>
    <date>2011-09-15 20:01:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/393929_climate-change-daily-feed-15-september-2011-climate-change.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mongoven@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>iisd-rs@iisd.org</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>394197</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 06/01/11
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   The BMA website has been updated with the three most recent Dow-related
   media items:

   -       The Express Buzz commentary from 5/30 on the Anderson extradition
   issue

   -       The PTI article reporting on the CIC's recommendation the Ministry
   of External Affairs release RTI-requested documents about Anderson

   -       The Economic Times article reporting the Ag Ministry sent notices
   to DAS India asking why it should not delist DAS product registrations.

   Colin Toogood posted on Twitter and Facebook links to the Express Buzz
   commentary with the note "A tale of two legal battles."

   Print media today Asian Age, Indian Express (New Delhi editions) and Daily
   News &amp; Analysis (Mumbai edition) included reports on the CIC
   recommendation to release the GoI communications regarding Anderson. All
   were below the fold on interior pages.

   TwoCircles.net published an enhanced version of the CIC story, saying the
   recommendation was to "make public all letters that [the MEA] has issued
   or received concerning Bhopal gas leak of December 1984."

   This story reported the RTI application by Afroz Alam "Sahil" "includes
   all correspondence between the ministry and Central Bureau of
   Investigation (CBI) from April 1984 to July 1995; photocopies of all
   letters written by the ministry to any department; letters received by the
   ministry from the Central Government and the Madhya Pradesh Government
   concerning Bhopal gas leak; and details of all expenditure incurred by the
   ministry."

   The CI Commissioner cited the documents should be released as they are "of
   significance to the general public, especially the families of the victims
   who have been awaiting justice since over last two decades."

   http://twocircles.net/2011jun01/cic_orders_foreign_ministry_reveal_bhopal_letters.html

   Economic Times published an error-riddled report that "a special court"
   for India's Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) "framed" charges against
   two government officials who allegedly received payments to register
   pesticide products for De-Nocil. This article by Rajender Nagaroki said
   the payments were made by DAS India Ltd. Mumbai, "a subsidiary of Dow
   Chemicals," rather than by DE-Nocil.

   It also refered to "the Dow scam" as being "unearthed by the U.S.
   Securities and Exchange Commission" in 2007, which "fined Dow Chemicals
   $325,000 for bribing the officials in India."

   The piece ended with a reference to Dow's 2001 merger with UCC, "which was
   lying closed after the 1984 Bhopal gas tragedy."

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/environment/pollution/cbi-files-chargesheet-in-dow-pesticide-case/articleshow/8671900.cms

   Indian media reported the Delhi Police removed a ban it had imposed on
   protests at "key" areas in the city such as Jantar Mantar and India Gate.
   The action was the result of a lawsuit filed by Bhopal gas victim Bano Bi
   from the 2010 ICJB protest at Jantar Mantar when the activists were not
   allowed to camp at the protest site, but had to repair to another location
   each evening. Future applications for protest permits to use the sites
   will be evaluated on a case-by-case basis.

   The Hindu, Hindustan Times and Indian Express each published in-house
   reports.

   Hindu  http://www.hindu.com/2011/06/01/stories/2011060161570400.htm

   HT 
   http://www.hindustantimes.com/After-HC-order-prepare-for-rallies-at-India-Gate/Article1-704240.aspx

   HT 
   http://www.hindustantimes.com/Be-ready-for-major-traffic-jams-at-India-Gate/Article1-704235.aspx

   IE 
   http://www.indianexpress.com/news/ban-on-protests-at-jantar-mantar-india-gate-lifted/797877/0

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-06-01 19:43:06</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/394197_bhopal-update-06-01-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>394241</id>
    <title>Yes Men monitoring - 07-22-11 - updated
</title>
    <description>   The Sacramento Bee on 7/17 reported on activists that employ hoaxes,
   including Yes Men's Bhopal/BBC hoax and the Yes Men partnering with
   Rainforest Action Network to hijack Chevron's "Yes, We Can" ad campaign. A
   communications firm representative stated corporations like Dow "make
   things worse for themselves when they step in" to respond to the Yes Men's
   actions, such as when Dow "loudly distanced itself from a humane gesture
   like compensating the victims of the tragic accident at Bhopal, still
   suffering 20 years later. Bichlbaum was quoted at length and answered
   questions on some other Yes Men actions, including the SurvivaBall. Sierra
   Club chairman Carl Pope spoke highly of the Yes Men, because companies
   "must rebut" when they are the victim of Yes Men actions.

   http://www.sacbee.com/2011/07/17/3773241/these-giant-organizations-were.html

   The Yes Men have been quiet again this week, there are no updates to
   report from their websites or social media.

   -       A few other Twitter users are seeing physical similarities between
   Andy Bichlbaum and James Murdoch, and are calling for Bichlbaum to be cast
   as Murdoch in a movie version of the News of the World/News Corp scandal.

   -       AlterNet posted the Yes! magazine article from last week in which
   Bichlbaum and Bonanno chose four other "protests that shook the world
   (with laughter)" and the publication editors added the BBC/Bhopal hoax for
   a total of five pranks.

   Regards,

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 23:39:22</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/394241_yes-men-monitoring-07-22-11-updated-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mkolleth@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>394301</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 11-14-11 Media #1
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm

   Here are the initial wire reports on the ICJB's press conference:

   -       AP reported "at least 21" Indian Olympians called for LOCOG to
   drop Dow's sponsorship, calling it "offensive to the spirit of the Olympic
   Games." The only person quoted by AP is Safreen Khan of Children Against
   Dow-Carbide, who said "hundreds of children are being born disabled" and
   blamed Dow for the lack of remediation in Bhopal. LOCOG is noted as
   standing firm on the Dow sponsorship, and Dow's position on the Bhopal
   issue is given. The article noted Dow's India office referred inquiries to
   the US headquarters.

   http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/45284750

   -       IBNS issued what is likely the closest iteration of the ICJB press
   release, as usual. Three Olympians appeared at the press conference in
   Bhopal: "Inam - Ur - Rehman, B P Govinda, Syed Ali and Jalaluddin Rizvi,"
   and said, "national and international Olympians should oppose the unholy
   alliance with the poisoner of Bhopal. "

     Representatives of the five Bhopal activist groups &amp; NGOs are quoted -
     Safreen Khan, Dhingra, Rashida Bee, Balkrishna Namdeo and Nawab Khan.
     Bee said neither PM Singh's office nor the Indian Olympic Association
     have responded or acted on the ICJB's request that they contact LOCOG
     and demand Dow's sponsorship be dropped.

   http://www.newkerala.com/news/2011/worldnews-106332.html

   -       PTI published a brief report from Chennai that Hockey Olympians
   Vasudevan Baskaran and Charles Cornelius held a press conference in
   conjunction with the ICJB's press event in Bhopal.

   http://www.newkerala.com/news/2011/worldnews-106332.html

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-11-14 15:28:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/394301_bhopal-update-11-14-11-media-1-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>394732</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 08-11-11 media #1
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   Maharashtra media the Hitavada published on its front two pages an article
   previewing the Jabalpur High Court hearing scheduled for today on the
   question of whether the Bhopal factory chemical waste can and will be sent
   to the DRDO incinerator near Nagpur. The article related the legal filings
   and rulings leading up to today's hearing. It also reported the MP state
   documents about the site have been supplied to the Maharashtra Pollution
   Control Board, and the MPCB `is likely seek more time" for the report it
   was due to provide the court today. The "state" (presumably Maha) "has set
   up an expert committee of high level officials to study the [MP] reports."
   However, the MPCB's analysis of samples it was directed to collect from
   the factory site "could not be done" to meet today's deadline "due to
   Monsoon session [sic] and oil spill near Mumbai."

   The hearing today is scheduled to include "NGOs and others who are seeking
   intervention in the matter and recall of order." Full text available on
   request.

   IBNS reported the ICJB sent its letter to PM Singh about Dow's Olympic
   sponsorship, as previously mentioned, and to the president of the Indian
   Olympic Associaiton. The NGO group also said petitions would be circulated
   among athletes and the British public for signatures and "to register
   their protest on Dow's sponsorship." The report quoted Rachna Dhingra on
   behalf of the BGIA, who alleged Dow's action in addressing UCC issues in
   the US but not in India is "racist."

   The Bhopal activists said "The Organising Committees of Olympics hugely
   underestimate the negative fallout" that can occur from Dow's sponsorship.

   http://www.indiablooms.com/NewsDetailsPage/newsDetails110811c.php

   The AroundtheRings Olympics blog reported "Dow rejects criticisms" of its
   Olympic sponsorship. In addition to Dow's position statement, the article
   included the BMA's blog comments by Lorraine Close and those from Indian
   Olympic Association president V.K. Malhotra calling for Dow's sponsorship
   to be cancelled.

   http://www.aroundtherings.com/articles/view.aspx?id=37640

   Daily News &amp; Analysis reported the MP govt "on Tuesday set up an inquiry
   commission to examine the various aspects of the [Bhopal gas] accident."
   The panel is to consider the "role of the state administration and others
   in the arrest, release and providing safe passage to Warren Anderson (UCC
   chief), leading to his ascension (sic)" and "basic issues such whether the
   UCC plant was set up in compliance of strict regulations, and whether it
   was equipped with adequate safety measures and whether it took safety
   measures in disposal of the hazardous waste." Some observers are skeptical
   of the move, calling it politically expedient, while others considered it
   "better late than never."

   http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_27-years-later-mp-sets-up-panel-to-probe-bhopal-gas-leak_1574710

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-08-11 16:42:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/394732_bhopal-update-08-11-11-media-1-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>395232</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 11-08-11
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   The Independent published a clarification statement on Dow regarding the
   11/3 "Bhopal poisoner" headline and the 2001 acquisition of UCC. The note,
   not currently available online, included: "There should be therefore no
   suggestion that Dow were in any way responsible for the 1984 Bhopal
   disaster" and the detail that UCIL "had responsibility for the day to day
   operation of the plant," not UCC. Full text available on request.

   Huffington Post UK reported on McDonald's providing training for "key
   staff" of the London Olympics. Near the end, the article included a list
   of the Games' main sponsors, with three sentences explaining the criticism
   aimed at Dow over the Bhopal issue. Amnesty's call for LOCOG to "reassess
   their association" with Dow is also mentioned.

   http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2011/11/08/london-2012-mcdonalds-train-staff_n_1081340.html?ref=uk

   A Current TV post on Len Aldis' Agent Orange Activist Group on the topic
   of "Bring down Monsanto" has a lengthy comment by "JanforGore" about "DOW,
   Dupont and those companies which provided the chemical weapons of war and
   other toxic products that still affect subsequent generations of humans
   from Vietnam, to Bhopal, to the U.S." The comment included a paragraph
   about former Mich. Gov. Jennifer Granholm and her brief tenure on the Dow
   board.

   AOAG page:  http://current.com/1jb6ikc

   Comment page: 
   http://current.com/community/93530679_bring-down-monsanto.htm

   PTI reported on anti-nuclear activist demands for information on the
   proposed Koodankulam Nuclear Power plant. The protesters said they "should
   not be left in the lurch like the Bhopal gas victims."

   http://www.rediff.com/news/report/anti-nuke-leaders-demand-status-paper-on-koodankulam-plant/20111108.htm

   Signatures:

   -       The UK Early Day Motion has one new signer: Greg Mulholland from
   Leeds North West, of the Liberal Democrats party.

   -       The Change.org petition to Lord Coe currently has 868 signatures.

   The BMA Twitter and Facebook pages posted links to email directly to UK
   govt officials and ask them to sign the EDM. Other new links include:

   -       A post on IOC website TeamUSA.org of the 11/3 AP article on the UK
   MPs questioning Dow's Olympic sponsorship credentials

   -       The 11/4 Siaset article on the CIC directing BMHRC to comply with
   Rachna Dhingra's RTI requests.

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-11-08 18:38:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/395232_bhopal-update-11-08-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>395271</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 11-10-11
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   The BMA Facebook and Twitter feeds posted links to Agent Orange activist
   Len Aldis' website "Britain-Vietnam Friendship Society," and the Midland
   Daily News article on Dow funding remediation of the Tittabawassee River
   near its Midland plant.

   -       The BVFS link was introduced by BMA as "More Dow (and Monsanto)
   fun and games with Agent Orange." The BVFS site links to an online
   petition addressed to Pres. Obama calling for reversal of the 2009 U.S.
   Supreme Court decision against Vietnamese people seeking compensation from
   Dow and Monsanto. The BMA's Colin Toogood appears to be the most recent
   person to sign the petition.

   -       BMA's comment on the MDN story is "Dow to clean up! er, in the 
   US..."

   The BMA's Change.org petition to Lord Coe has about 925 signatures this
   morning. Petition originator Lorraine Close had urged supporters to reach
   1,000 signatures yesterday.

   Media

   -       Discovery Channel's green website Treehugger.com reported on
   Coca-Cola's initiative to recycle all of the clear PET bottles at the
   London Olympics, then questioned the validity of the Games "green" claims,
   based on Dow's sponsorship of the Olympic stadium wrap. At that point,
   Treehugger's Business/Corporate Responsibility reporter Rachel Cernansky
   inserted quotes from the 11/3 Independent and AP articles on the MP's
   questioning Lord Coe on the Dow sponsorship decision.

     The article has not received any comments, but has been tweeted 55
     times.

   http://www.treehugger.com/corporate-responsibility/coca-cola-launch-major-recycling-iniative-london-olympics.html?utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+treehuggersite+%28Treehugger%29

   -       Pacific Free Press, a Left media source based in British Columbia,
   posted a lengthy and particularly vitriolic article by a retired British
   "counsellor" named Terrence Stone. He includes the Bhopal gas accident
   among several topics covered in the piece. On the Bhopal topic, he claims
   "all those deaths were murders"; "The management of Union Carbide back in
   the USA gloated over the money they'd saved by cutbacks in safety,
   ignoring repeated warnings of imminent catastrophe"; and "Dow Chemical
   eventually ended up buying the still unsafe plant and is one of the major
   producers of pesticides in India today, along with Monsanto."

     Stone and his wife had traveled to South Asia last year and crossed
     paths with "an American couple who belong to The Friends of Bhopal," who
     gave him Dominque LaPierre's book It Was Five Past Midnight in Bhopal.
     The other topics in the article are Agent Orange and Napalm use during
     the Vietnam war (specifically in Cambodia), and former Secretary of
     State Henry Kissinger's "Operation Breakfast" campaign of bombing in
     Cambodia.

   http://www.pacificfreepress.com/news/1-/10140-same-as-it-ever-was-murder-inc-sequels.html

   -       A US EPA press release about a Missouri pharmaceutical company
   paying a fine for environmental violations ends with a description of the
   US Emergency Planning and Community Right-to-Know Act (EPCRA) being
   enacted in the wake of the Bhopal gas accident and "a later toxic release
   from a West Virginia chemical plant."

   http://yosemite.epa.gov/opa/admpress.nsf/0/f4d30b69ceaf486d8525794300620ead?OpenDocument

   -       Film review website Pajiba included the Bhopal gas accident in an
   article about man-made or natural disasters the writer would like to see
   used as "backdrops for a Hollywood disaster movie."

   http://www.pajiba.com/pajiba_storytellers/10-manmade-and-natural-disasters-that-would-make-awesome-badass-backdrops-for-a-hollywood-disaster-movie.php

   Also of interest, a Dow Corning press release announced it will " feature
   silicone-based solutions for use in transdermal drug delivery, topical
   treatment and pharmaceutical processing at CPhI India 2011, 30 Nov - 2 Dec
   2011 at Bombay Exhibition Centre, Mumbai, India."

   This may be a protest opportunity for the Bhopal activists, especially
   given the recent controversy over questionable ethics involved in the
   BMHRC's inclusion of gas-affected patients in drug trials.

   http://www.webwire.com/ViewPressRel.asp?aId=149026

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-11-10 17:22:42</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/395271_bhopal-update-11-10-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>395677</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 11-23-11 media
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   India Blooms News Service (IBNS) picked up the Tessa Jowell press release
   from the UK Labour Party website and noted ", in India on the other hand
   there is a situation where neither the Sports Minister or any MP in the
   Congress or the opposition has raised any objections to the issue of Dow
   sponsoring the Olympics."

   The article cited Rachna Dhingra describing the ICJB petition opposing the
   sponsorship that was signed by the 22 former Olympians from India, and the
   several officials to whom it was addressed. The remainder of the article
   quoted from Jowell's press release.

   http://www.newkerala.com/news/2011/worldnews-112293.html

   Hindustan Times reported on opposition to the planned Jaitapur nuclear
   power plant, discussing political opposition by the Shiv Sena party and
   local activist protests planned for Dec. 3, "a day of protests against
   industrial disasters."

   Shiv Sena: 
   http://www.hindustantimes.com/News-Feed/mumbai/Sena-targets-state-over-Jaitapur-again/Article1-772799.aspx

   Local protest: 
   http://www.hindustantimes.com/India-news/Mumbai/After-seven-months-protests-begin-again/Article1-772803.aspx

   Daily News &amp; Analysis published an oddly written article about "noted
   ecologist Madhav Gadgil" calling for citizens to "ensure" laws written for
   environmental protection during "progress." Gadgil claimed to have
   discovered "rampant falsification of statistics by government officials"
   while conducting research on "the Bhopal gas tragedy and the Goa mining
   scam." No specifics were offered. Full text available on request.

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-11-23 17:02:21</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/395677_bhopal-update-11-23-11-media-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>395771</id>
    <title>RE: more lies
</title>
    <description>Yeah, but he saved hers earlier, so they're even. 



-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
Sent: Wednesday, February 10, 2010 7:58 AM
To: Scott Stewart
Cc: Anya Alfano; 'korena zucha'
Subject: Re: more lies

I didn't know she saved his life?    

------Original Message------
From: Scott Stewart
To: Fred Burton
Cc: Anya Alfano
Cc: 'korena zucha'
Subject: RE: more lies
Sent: Feb 10, 2010 6:35 AM

I think we should definitely include the stuff where she mischaracterizes
Stratfor and her work for us to others. Afghanistan travel, burkah,
bulletproof vest, saving Nate's life etc.  We could do a separate category
for that.  




-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
Sent: Tuesday, February 09, 2010 11:45 PM
To: Scott Stewart
Cc: Anya Alfano; 'korena zucha'
Subject: Re: more lies

Are lies about her work locations work related or considered part of her
fantasy? 

Just not sure which is what.
</description>
    <date>2010-02-10 14:07:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/395771_re-more-lies-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anya.alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>395929</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 08-03-11
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   Daily Pioneer reported the Bhopal District and Sessions court issued
   notices to the CBI and the eight former UCIL officials who were convicted
   in 2010 on criminal charges in the Bhopal gas accident. The notices were
   about the MP State's request to revise the sentences imposed on the men
   for stricter punishment. The State had also filed an appeal in the case.
   The next hearing on the sentence revision is set for August 20, while the
   appeal has been placed on hold.

   http://www.dailypioneer.com/358003/Gas-tragedy-Bhopal-district-court-issues-notice-to-CBI.html

   Coincidentally, the Indian journal Economic &amp; Political Weekly published
   in its July 30 issue a 2+ page defense of the Supreme Court's rejecting
   the criminal case curative petition (aka Bhopal Criminal Curative). The
   writer is SC advocate Raghav Shankar. He argued the curative petition was
   the wrong legal vehicle for the CBI's effort and criticism of the SC
   decision "is based on an inadequate understanding" of India's judicial
   process. Shankar pointed out the MP Sessions court can indeed reframe the
   charge if there is "new evidence...that speaks directly to the knowledge
   of [Keshub] Mahindra and others" about the potential for harm due to
   management decisions. However, he concluded "justice would probably be
   best served" if the CBI withdrew its revision petition and pursued the
   appeal for enhanced punishment. The CBI has said the sentence should have
   been "two years [imprisonment] per wrongful death caused, with sentences
   running consecutively." This would have resulted in sentences of up to
   10,000 years.

   Full text should be available here in pdf format: 
   http://epw.in/epw/uploads/articles/16357.pdf

   Alternate access:  http://epw.in

   Indian environmental magazine Down To Earth published a report on the
   chemical waste disposal issue, but only through about July 15. The article
   quoted both Satinath Sarangi and Rachna Dhingra, although neither referred
   to the activist-preferred remedy of Dow shipping the material out of the
   country for disposal. Sarangi criticized government agencies for not
   obtaining proper clearances for the process and Dhingra repeated her
   question about "the other 27,000 tonnes of waste lying outside the factory
   that is contaminating the groundwater and the air."

   http://www.downtoearth.org.in/content/bhopal-s-toxic-waste-raises-stink

   Business Standard published a staff-generated report on the GoI
   expenditures requests that PTI reported on Tuesday. The Bhopal
   compensation reference is brief.

   Not available online, the article appeared on p4 of the epaper edition.

   From activist resources:

   Colin Toogood posted on Twitter and Facebook a link to a Natural News
   article on a Minnesota Court of Appeals ruling that proprietors of organic
   farms may sue neighboring non-organic operations for "trespass" of
   drifting agricultural chemicals.

   http://www.naturalnews.com/033216_GMO_contamination_lawsuits.html

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-08-03 17:34:37</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/395929_bhopal-update-08-03-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>396300</id>
    <title>DOW CONFIDENTIAL: Bhopal Monitoring Report Friday, December 02, 2011
</title>
    <description>Contact AIM for more Information                                                                                                                                         
Significant Activist Activity                                                                                                                                            
 India anniversary events: ICJB protests, rail roko; PAN People's Tribunal; Panel on nuclear laws                                                                        
 UK anniversary events: Scottish Parliament Motion, BMA events                                                                                                           
 US anniversary events: Boston Occupy rally, film screening; Austin "die-in"                                                                                             
 12/2 Amnesty UK: LOCOG should admit it "made a mistake" in awarding Dow the stadium wrap sponsorship                                                                    
 12/2 Greenpeace blog: Tell LOCOG to drop Dow, sign change.org petition                                                                                                  
 12/2 B. Gardiner post called for "one final push" for LOCOG "to do the right thing"                                                                                     
 Change.org petitions: more than 6,500 signatures for LOCOG; Indian athlete adresses IOA president                                                                       
Media                                                                                                                                                                    
 11/30 PTI: Jabbar, BPGMUS to protest at CM Chouhan's house                                                                                                              
 12/1 IBNS: Chingari Trust commemoration                                                                                                                                 
 12/1 ToI: Olympians, UK MP Navin Shah to lead Bhopal rally                                                                                                              
  Bhopal anniversary media summary: Dec. 1-2                                                                                                                             
 12/2 Global media: Bhopal anniversary protests - Coe, Malhotra, Olympic stadium effigies burned                                                                         
 12/2 AP: Lengthy review of Dow Olympics sponsorship controversy; Gardiner compared wrap to 'skin' of Bhopal victims                                                     
 12/2 India media: Gas NGO plans for 'rail roko' on Saturday                                                                                                             
 12/1-2 UK, India media: Gardiner on Activist/MP/Celebrity letter to LOCOG; "legal challenge" possible                                                                   
 12/1 Telegraph UK: Newham request to drop Dow denied by LOCOG                                                                                                           
 12/1 Down to Earth: GoI, CPCB report to MP HC approves of Bhopal factory waste disposal at DRDO site near Nagpur                                                        
 12/1 Telegraph India: Former Indian Olympians wrote to Sports minister Maken                                                                                            
 12/2 CNN-IBN: Dow affidavit filed with Indian SC on compensation issue                                                                                                  
 Local media: MDN; MLive pickups of AP articles                                                                                                                          
 11/30 Sportz Power: IOA meeting challenges - members traveling; boycott not called for by IOA members                                                                   
 12/2 Grist, Guardian blog: PAN PPT "trial of pesticide companies" seeks to find wider audience for information                                                          
 11/29 BBC radio: In-depth discussion of boycott possibility - Verma, Sarangi among guests                                                                               
Activist Activity                                                                                                                                                        
 Bhopali film screenings: London, MIT, NYC, Pittsburgh, Toronto, Madison; film also available for download                                                               
 PAN PPT session 12/3-6 will "share the testimonies of...the trial's witnesses with a wider audience"                                                                    
 12/1 London Assembly press release: questions previously submitted to LOCOG, London mayor                                                                               
 Blogs: UK sports writers criticize India boycott idea                                                                                                                   
 Social media: BMA, Twitter campaign for petition; US activist comments on Granholm's program                                                                            
 12/1 PR Green: No Pesticide Day observance in Puerto Rico                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                         
India anniversary events: ICJB protests, rail roko; PAN People's Tribunal; Panel on nuclear laws                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                         
ICJB events planned in Bhopal as indicated on the schedule it had issued at the beginning of the week:                                                                   
 - 12/1 at 1 p.m. - Burn effigy of Dow at Lily Talkies Crossing                                                                                                          
 - 12/2 - noon to 3 p.m. - Rally with "replica of Olympic stadium" and an effigy of Lord Coe "as a mouthpiece of Dow Chemicals" that are to be burned at the "public     
meeting" at the end of the rally. "National Olympians M/s Ashok Dhyanchand, Jalaluddin Rizvi, Sameer Daad and a member of the London Assembly, Navin Shah will be part   
of this rally."                                                                                                                                                          
 - 12/3 Rail Roko - time/place to be determined                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                         
12/2-3 Separately, gas NGO BGPMUS led by Abdul Jabbar plans to hold a "dharna" protest outside MP Chief Minister Chouhan's residence.                                    
                                                                                                                                                                         
12/3-6 in Bangalore, Pesticide Action Network will hold its Permanent People's Tribunal "trial" of pesticide/agrichemical companies. See entry under Activist Activity   
for details.                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                         
12/3 in New Delhi at 2 p.m., the Coalition for Nuclear Disarmament (CNDP) will hold a panel discussion on India's nuclear safety and civil liability legislation.        
Panelists will be ND Jayaprakash, Gopal Krishna, Achin Vanaik, Suvrat Raju, Prabir Purkayastha, and PK Sundaram. Admiral (ret.) L. Ramdas will chair the event. The      
location is Urdu Ghar, 212, Den Dayal Upadhyaya Marg, New Delhi.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                       Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                         
UK anniversary events: Scottish Parliament Motion, BMA events                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                                                         
A motion has been tabled in the Scottish Parliament on the occasion of the 27th Bhopal gas disaster anniversary. The motion, *S4M-01472, is credited to Joan McAlpine    
who is also a reporter for the Scotsman. The motion "condemns" Dow Chemical for a perceived "poor human rights record" and calls on Scottish MPs to support the Scottish 
Friends of Bhopal letter calling for LOCOG to review the Dow sponsorship deal. The letter is to be submitted to The Times. Full text of the motion is attached.          
                                                                                                                                                                         
BMA emailed its list of events for the anniversary, including:                                                                                                           
-     "2 minutes of silence at the G20" in a meeting chaired by UK MP Barry Gardiner at the Durban, South Africa conference. Gardiner also intended to make use of his   
time there to expand the network of supporters for the campaign against Dow's Olympic sponsorship.                                                                       
-     Scottish Friends of Bhopal "memorial service" (plaque dedication at Greyfriars Kirk in Edinburgh)                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                       Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                         
US anniversary events: Boston Occupy rally, film screening; Austin "die-in"                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                         
Only two Bhopal anniversary "actions" were announced in the U.S:                                                                                                         
Boston, MA                                                                                                                                                               
12/2 - noon to 1 p.m. An ICJB-Boston Bhopal anniversary presentation at the OccupyBoston campaign location in Dewey Square. Topic: "the tragedy and how Bhopal's fight   
has also been emblematic of the struggles of the 99% against corporations."                                                                                              
       - 7 p.m Bhopali film screening at MIT with discussion by Max Carlson, Sanjay Verma and ICJB members.                                                              
Austin, TX                                                                                                                                                               
12/2 - 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. Die-in at UT-Austin West Mall behind the fountain.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                         
Several creenings of the Bhopali film are scheduled for various locations around the US. through the upcoming week. Further details are provided in the Activist         
Activity section below.                                                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                       Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                         
12/2 Amnesty UK: LOCOG should admit it "made a mistake" in awarding Dow the stadium wrap sponsorship                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                         
Amnesty UK has issued a statement on the Bhopal anniversary and criticizing LOCOG for being "irresponsible" in saying it does not see Dow having any responsibility on   
the Bhopal issue.                                                                                                                                                        
Amnesty Int'l Business and Human Rights leader Seem Joshi said: "LOCOG should publicly state that ongoing human rights concerns were not considered prior to the         
contract being given to the Dow Chemical Company and that they made a mistake."                                                                                          
Full text attached.                                                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                       Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                         
12/2 Greenpeace blog: Tell LOCOG to drop Dow, sign change.org petition                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                         
Greenpeace has posted a blog statement about the Bhopal anniversary, headlined "Tell London Olympics Committee to Drop the Dow Chemical Company." The statement explains 
the accident process, followed by the allegation that Union Carbide "has never taken full responsibility for the destruction it caused at Bhopal." The post also charges 
Dow with similar actions of "downplaying.complicity for the disaster." It ends with an appeal for readers to sign the change.org petition addressed to LOCOG. Full text  
attached.                                                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                       Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                         
12/2 B. Gardiner post called for "one final push" for LOCOG "to do the right thing"                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                         
UK MP Barry Gardiner posted an item on the Labour party website titled "We cannot allow London Olympics to add insult to injury for victims of Bhopal." He claimed       
leadership of the campaign against Dow's Olympic sponsorship and that "we now need one final push to ensure LOCOG do the right thing, and to protect the international   
reputation of the London 2012 games."                                                                                                                                    
He asked readers to sign the Change.org petition and said "We have teamed up with change.org" on the petition, which is apparently why it was moved to the front of the  
change.org website as a "featured" petition and has jumped so quickly in signatures. Full text attached.                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                         
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Change.org petitions: more than 6,500 signatures for LOCOG; Indian athlete adresses IOA president                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                         
The Change.org petition (sometimes being called "Lorraine's campaign") addressed to Lord Coe asking for review of the Dow sponsorship has gained momentum, reaching a    
total of more than 6,500 signatures, compared to Wednesday afternoon when it had only 1,200 signatures. The goal is 10,000 signatures. Barry Gardiner claims to have     
"teamed up" with change.org, resulting in this petition being moved to the front of the activist/petition website, thus attracting more attention.                       
                                                                                                                                                                         
Another change.org petition was posted addressed to V K Malhotra, acting president of the Indian Olympic Association, and calling for "Boycott Dow-lympics." The         
petition rationale combines Bhopal and Agent Orange issues in Vietnam as reasons for wanting India to boycott the Olympics.                                              
There are currently 26 signatures with a goal of 100. The petition is credited to Jalaluddin Rizvi, a 1984 Indian Olympic hockey player.                                 
                                                                                                                                                                         
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11/30 PTI: Jabbar, BPGMUS to protest at CM Chouhan's house                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                         
PTI reported Abdul Jabbar "threatened of holding a dharna" on 12/2-3 at CM Chouhan's residence as an anniversary observance. Jabbar addressed the media, complaining the 
"district court" has "a total lack of seriousness" in hearing the case on enhancing the sentences in the Bhopal criminal case. He also said the GoI and MP state have    
not implemented the several projects or programs for the gas victims that have been announced "in the last 18 months."                                                   
http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_bhopal-gas-tragedy-organisation-accuses-centre-state-of-inaction_1619422                                                            
                                                                                                                                                                         
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12/1 IBNS: Chingari Trust commemoration                                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                         
-        IBNS reported Chingari Trust children, their parents, and clinic staff "paid condolences" to the Bhopal gas tragedy victims with a "small peaceful candle march 
from Chingari rehabilitation centre to D.I.G. Bungalow Square, in the evening." The services offered by the trust were also described.                                   
http://www.washingtonbanglaradio.com/content/123774911-children-pay-homage-bhopal-victims                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                         
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12/1 ToI: Olympians, UK MP Navin Shah to lead Bhopal rally                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                         
Times of India reported the former Olympians Ashok Dhyanchand, Jalaluddin Rizvi, Sameer Daad and others planned to lead the Bhopal anniversary rally from the Bharat     
Talkies to the former UCIL factory. UK MP Navin Shah "said he was joined by the Labour Party's Friends of India and a cross-party coalition of MPs at the Olympic site"  
to protest the Dow stadium wrap sponsorship.                                                                                                                             
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bhopal/Ex-Olympians-to-lead-rally-for-gas-survivors/articleshow/10947069.cms                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                         
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Bhopal anniversary media summary: Dec. 1-2                                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                         
Global media provided coverage of the Bhopal anniversary events beginning 12/1 with NGO press releases announcing the several anniversary rallies and activities in      
Bhopal, followed by reporting as each event occurred. Associated Press, UK Press Association, SkyNews, IANS and PTI issued wire stories that received considerable       
pickup.                                                                                                                                                                  
-        AP posted two items - an initial report of the 12/2 rally and effigy burnings, and a later in-depth report on the Olympic stadium sponsorship controversy. Each 
received 100+ pickups, especially across the US markets.                                                                                                                 
-       UKPA and SkyNews reports on the 12/2 events were seen across the UK and Canada, with approx. 50 pickups total.                                                   
-       IANS and PTI items were used mainly by Indian media outlets. These also reported on Barry Gardiner, Ken Livingston, sports figures and "celebrities" signing a   
letter to LOCOG calling for the stadium wrap deal to be cancelled.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                         
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12/2 Global media: Bhopal anniversary protests - Coe, Malhotra, Olympic stadium effigies burned                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                         
A succession of wire articles reported on the Bhopal gas tragedy anniversary protests in Bhopal: First the UK's SkyNews, then the UK Press Association, then the AP.     
-   SkyNews gave a fairly high-level overview of the Olympics protest situation, simply stating "protests are being held" over the next few days during the anniversary  
period and the activists are "angry" about Dow's Olympic sponsorship deal. The IOA meeting and prior reports of voting to boycott are mentioned. The stadium wrap plan   
is described and the pressure being put on LOCOG, but no details or names of groups/individuals. Dow's position on Bhopal is briefly noted.                              
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/protests-over-olympic-deal-chemical-firm-095056665.html                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                         
-   UK Press Association reported more detail from the Bhopal rallies, noting "more than 200" took part in the march to the former UCIL factory site and burned effigies 
of Coe and Malhotra. MP CM Chouhan's letter to Sports minister Maken is mentioned, as is the letter to LOCOG from the 21 Indian athletes asking for Dow's sponsorship to 
be dropped. Dow's Bhopal position is briefly mentioned, as is the GoI "seeking an additional 1.7 billion dollars for the victims from Union Carbide, and activists       
accuse Dow of not cleaning up contamination in Bhopal." Malhotra and LOCOG's most recent statement about not boycotting and not dropping the wrap sponsorship are        
included. The five Bhopal gas NGOs plan for the railway blockade on Saturday ends the piece. About 50 pickups mainly in UK local and regional media, as well as the      
Independent.                                                                                                                                                             
http://www.independent.ie/breaking-news/world-news/bhopal-survivors-burn-coe-effigy-2952674.html                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                         
-  AP issued a report very similar to the UKPA's, credited to reporter Rafiq Maqbool. This was seen in 100+ media outlets in the UK, Canada and US. Pickups of note      
include MLive.com, Washington Post, Washington Examiner, Toronto Star, San Francisco Chronicle, CBS News, ABC News, Salon.com, Huffington Post, Seattle                  
Post-Intelligencer, Seattle Times, Minneapolis Star-Tribune, Miami Herald, Boston.com and SI.com.                                                                        
http://www.boston.com/news/world/asia/articles/2011/12/02/bhopal_survivors_protest_dows_olympic_sponsorship/                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                         
-   BBC issued a report on the protests with a slightly more local perspective, quoting Coe's statement on being "satisfied" that Dow is not responsible for the Bhopal  
issue. Ken Livingstone is mentioned as having made a statement "earlier this week" that "urged a rethink on Dow Chemical's role." Malhotra's statement was included on   
the IOA not holding a boycott vote but "the issue would be raised with the organizers."                                                                                  
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-16001266                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                         
-  IANS issued a report from the protests, quoting UK MP Navin Shah and ICJB activist Rachna Dhingra. Shah called Dow's Olympic sponsorship deal "disgusting," said the  
issue has been introduced in the London Assembly, and "the Indian government should raise the issue with the Olympics Organizing Committee" or face pressure from Indian 
leaders to do so. Dhingra said if the deal is not cancelled, the activists "will hold a Bhopal Olympics to coincide with the event. Children with congenital             
disabilities caused due to the gas leak and Vietnamese children hurt by Dow's Agent Orange will perform at the Bhopal Olympics." Several pickups, mainly in Indian media 
outlets.                                                                                                                                                                 
Wall Street Journal's India RealTime blog linked to a post of IANS' previous report on the anniversary protest plans.                                                    
http://www.inewsone.com/2011/12/02/sebastian-coes-effigy-burnt-on-bhopal-gas-tragedys-27th-anniversary/94275                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                         
 - UK's Daily Mail posted a series of photos from the day's protests, showing the Coe, Malhotra and stadium effigies prior to and while being burned; an official photo  
of Coe; and images of the protesters.                                                                                                                                    
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2069167/Sebastian-Coe-effigy-burned-Bhopal-protesters-furious-chemical-firms-links-2012-London-Olympics.html                     
                                                                                                                                                                         
 - Daily Pioneer reported BJP state president and MP Prabhat Jha sympathized with the gas victims and said the government should do more for them.                       
http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/bhopal/24937-bjp-fight-for-gas-tragedy-victims-will-continue-jha.html                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                         
 - Daily Pioneer reported separately Navin Shah said now he has begun a petition asking "people from India and UK to create pressure on LOCOG to reconsider its          
position."                                                                                                                                                               
http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/bhopal/25022-protestors-burn-olympic-games-partners-effigies.html                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                         
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12/2 AP: Lengthy review of Dow Olympics sponsorship controversy; Gardiner compared wrap to 'skin' of Bhopal victims                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                         
A lengthy AP story by Danika Kirka and Ravi Nessman explored the controversy over Dow sponsoring the Olympic stadium wrap, describing the company's "Top" sponsor        
designation by the International Olympic Committee and the difficulties that status presents to Lord Coe's ability to back down from stadium sponsorship.                
The Bhopal, environmental, and human rights activist groups objections are described, as are Dow and UCC's positions regarding the Bhopal tragedy.                       
Comments of note include Scott Rosner, Wharton Sports Business Initiative, who discussed "the risk of the association and the sponsorship backfiring" and impacting the  
Games.                                                                                                                                                                   
Conversely, UK MP Barry Gardiner, Labour Party and head of Labour Friends of India, said the Bhopal people are offended to the point a stadium wrap produced by Dow      
"might as well be the skin of the families that died [in the gas accident]."                                                                                             
The article appeared under at least two titles: "London Olympics under fire for Dow Chemical ties" and "London Olympics under fire for Dow Chemical ties."               
Current pickups are primarily U.S., including: Washington Post, San Francisco Chronicle, CBS News, ABC News, Seattle Times, Minneapolis Star-Tribune, SI.com, Denver     
Post, Newsday, ESPN, Huffington Post and NPR.                                                                                                                            
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/industries/big-sponsor-big-problem-dows-links-to-bhopal-disaster-reflect-on-2012-london-olympics/2011/12/02/gIQAtEJPLO_story.html 
                                                                                                                                                                         
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12/2 India media: Gas NGO plans for 'rail roko' on Saturday                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                         
Indian media have reported further on the rail roko event planned for Saturday.                                                                                          
-   The Hindu reported Rachna Dhingra said the NGOs have been talking with the government for six months about changing the data used in the curative petition on        
compensation. The groups intend to keep the trains stopped until the GoI capitulates to their demand.                                                                    
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article2681980.ece                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                         
-  Daily Pioneer reported details of locations where the blockades are likely to occur. Law enforcement is to be deployed. Activist Balkrishna Namdeo said the protests  
are to be non-violent, but they are willing to be arrested.                                                                                                              
http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/bhopal/25028-voluntary-organisations-call-for-rail-roko-today.html                                                            
                                                                                                                                                                         
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12/1-2 UK, India media: Gardiner on Activist/MP/Celebrity letter to LOCOG; "legal challenge" possible                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                         
Hindustan Times reported UK MP Barry Gardiner said the Labour Friends of India planned "press events and meetings with legislators 'across the world'" on the occasion   
of the Bhopal anniversary. Gardiner also said he will personally meet G20 political leaders in Durban, S. Africa on Saturday "to raise concerns about 'Dow's failure to  
remediate the site at Bhopal and to take proper environmental and social corporate responsibility.'"                                                                     
In London, Ken Livingstone is to " launch a public petition of 'thousands of signatures' at the Olympic site at Stratford."                                              
http://www.hindustantimes.com/News-Feed/Athletics/British-MPs-want-Dow-ousted/Article1-776747.aspx                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                         
The Independent reported "more than a hundred" individuals and rights groups have called for LOCOG to cancel Dow's sponsorship deal. According to this brief article,    
Ken Livingstone has been joined by Noam Chomsky, Martin Sheen "and a host of Indian Olympians and politicians" in signing a letter requesting the sponsorship be         
reconsidered. While no link to the letter is offered, it appears to suggest this is a different letter than the ones previously reported.                                
http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/olympics/leading-figures-demand-ban-on-olympic-sponsor-6271128.html                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                         
The Hindu reported on the letter to LOCOG signed by MPs, "celebrities" and others including Livingstone, Simon Hughes, MP Pritti Patel, Noam Chomsky, Martin Sheen,      
Indra Sinha and several Indian film and sports figures. Chomsky is quoted, describing the Bhopal gas victims as having "every right to expect us to join them in their   
courageous efforts" at enforcing accountability for "one of the worst corporate crimes in history, and to gain some compensation for their suffering." Gardiner and      
Livingstone are also quoted on the rationale for asking LOCOG to reconsider Dow's sponsorship.                                                                           
http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/article2681773.ece                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                                                         
The Hindu's Business Line expanded on the reporting on the above-mentioned letter, quoting Ken Livingstone, apparently from today's press conference in London:          
"We will certainly be looking at the possibility of a legal challenge. If we can't afford a wrap for the stadium I'd rather not have one than have one contaminated by   
the death of 25,000 people."                                                                                                                                             
Coe's statement of confidence in Dow not having liabilities for the Bhopal gas leak, and a brief rendition of the history of the stadium wrap conclude the article.      
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/article2681580.ece?ref=wl_agri-biz                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                         
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12/1 Telegraph UK: Newham request to drop Dow denied by LOCOG                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                                                         
Telegraph UK reported LOCOG rejected the anticpated request from Newham Borough's council to review Dow's sponsorship. Newham mayor Robin Wales said he is disappointed  
in the decision.                                                                                                                                                         
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/sport/jmagnay1/100022044/london-2012-olympics-diary-locog-rejects-newhams-call-for-dow-chemical-sponsorship-review/                         
                                                                                                                                                                         
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12/1 Down to Earth: GoI, CPCB report to MP HC approves of Bhopal factory waste disposal at DRDO site near Nagpur                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                         
Down to Earth, India's environment magazine, reported the GoI and Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) submitted a report to the Jabalpur bench of the MP High Court   
on Nov. 22 and are still in favor of disposing of the chemical waste from the former UCIL plant site in Bhopal at the DRDO facility near Nagpur. This article claims the 
report "ignores some vital facts," which are the Maharashtra PCB said the DRDO facility is not suitable for disposing of heavy metals, the DRDO facility has not been    
functional for the past two years, and the MPCB must conduct a hearing into the matter. Reportedly, no formal application has been made to the MPCB for such a hearing.  
The stay on transport of the chemical waste has been extended to Dec. 9, when the Maharashtra government is to reply in the Jabalpur court to the GoI report.            
http://www.downtoearth.org.in/content/environment-ministry-cpcb-endorse-burning-bhopals-toxic-waste-nagpur                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                         
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12/1 Telegraph India: Former Indian Olympians wrote to Sports minister Maken                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                         
India's Telegraph reported the 21 ex-Olympians have each written to Sports minister Maken "reminding him of the US giant's link with the tragedy." Maken has not         
responded to the Olympians or CM Chouhan's letters yet. The article reported Maken asked the cabinet secretariat for input and was referred to the Ministry for External 
Affairs. An unidentified sports ministry official said that agency can't ask Indian athletes not to participate in an international event, and "It is for the government 
as a whole to decide whether it wants to oppose Dow's sponsorship."                                                                                                      
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1111201/jsp/nation/story_14822936.jsp                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                         
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12/2 CNN-IBN: Dow affidavit filed with Indian SC on compensation issue                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                         
CNN-IBN reported Dow representatives filed an affidavit with the Indian Supreme Court saying the company will not pay more compensation for the Bhopal gas tragedy, the  
settlement was "more than adequate and fair," it was 3 times more than required by Indian law, and UCC was not responsible for the daily operation of the UCIL plant as  
it was under Indian control. Few pickups so far.                                                                                                                         
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/dow-refuses-to-pay-more-to-bhopal-victims/208059-3.html                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                         
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Local media: MDN; MLive pickups of AP articles                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                         
11/30 Midland Daily News print edition ran the AP article from Monday, located on page A3 at the top.                                                                    
12/2 MLive.com picked up both of the day's AP articles on the Bhopal anniversary protests and the Olympic stadium sponsorship.                                           
                                                                                                                                                                         
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11/30 Sportz Power: IOA meeting challenges - members traveling; boycott not called for by IOA members                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                         
Indian sports media SportzPower published an article reporting the IOA meeting on 12/5 "is not going to happen," partly because IOA secretary general Raja Randhir Singh 
will be traveling to Lausanne, Switzerland that day. Unidentified "top sources" also indicated none of the former Olympians who signed are IOA members, and that none of 
the active athletes "have written anything" about the Dow sponsorship.                                                                                                   
This article reported the IOC "has been circulating" a document with background on the Bhopal gas accident and subsequent activities of the Indian governments and UCC   
"to place on the table the facts of the case against the detractors, who are linking Dow Chemical Company with Union Carbide Company."                                   
http://www.sportzpower.com/?q=content/dow-chemicals-issue-no-concern-ioa-has-no-issue-london-2012-0                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                         
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12/2 Grist, Guardian blog: PAN PPT "trial of pesticide companies" seeks to find wider audience for information                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                         
The UK's Guardian environment blog reported on the PAN People's Tribunal "trial of pesticide companies" that begins in Bangalore on Saturday. The blog post focuses on   
bee colony collapse syndrome that is blamed on neonicotiniod pesticides.                                                                                                 
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2011/dec/02/pesticides-bees?newsfeed=true                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                         
Grist.com posted an article on the PPT, saying "Whether or not the trial will have any real impact on the these companies' bottom lines is hard to predict, but PAN is   
using the occasion to share the testimonies of several of the trial's witnesses with a wider audience."                                                                  
http://www.grist.org/industrial-agriculture/2011-11-30-pesticide-on-trial                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                         
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11/29 BBC radio: In-depth discussion of boycott possibility - Verma, Sarangi among guests                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                         
BBC Asian Network radio program host Nihal entertained discussion of whether and why India should boycott the London Olympics over Dow's sponsorship of the stadium      
wrap. Telephone guests on the one-hour program were (in order of appearance) Bhopal activist Sanjay Verma, reporter Sangeeta (last name unclear), UK MP Rashnara Ali,    
Indian freelance sports writer Norris Pritham, BMA trustee/Sambhavna Clinic administrator Sathuy Sarangi, and call-in participant Priya.                                 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b017j3lg/Nihal_Boycotting_the_Olympics_for_political_reasons./                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                         
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Bhopali film screenings: London, MIT, NYC, Pittsburgh, Toronto, Madison; film also available for download                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                         
Bhopali documentary film screenings are to take place around the Bhopal anniversary. ICJB activist Sanjay Verma is scheduled for at least two appearances screenings at  
MIT and in New York City.                                                                                                                                                
 Bhopali documentary director Max Carlson tweeted that the film is now available on demand from distributor IndiePix. The distributor's website indicates half of the    
proceeds go to the Bhopal Medical Appeal website Bhopal.org.                                                                                                             
Screenings:                                                                                                                                                              
-        11/30  Frontline Club in London, UK with "special guest speaker Indra Sinha, award winning writer of Animal's People"                                           
-        12/1  University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, by AID Pittsburgh                                                                                               
-        12/2  Bloor Street United Church of Canada, Toronto, as part of Amnesty International Film Festival, followed by a talk by Amnesty and ICJB US advisory board   
member Ellen Shifrin                                                                                                                                                     
-        12/3  MIT  followed by discussion with Sanjay Verma from Bhopal, filmmaker Max Carlson, and ICJB members                                                        
-        12/8  IndieScreen, Williamsburgh, New York City, "followed by a Q&amp;A with Sanjay Verma, activist &amp; survivor of the 1984 Union Carbide Gas Disaster in Bhopal.    
50% of proceeds will go to Bhopal.org" (AIM note: This had been previously scheduled for 12/1)                                                                           
-        12/10 screening and panel at Alwan for the Arts, NYC (an "Arab community" venue), "followed by a serious panel discussion with survivor &amp; activist Sanjay       
Verma, Director Max Carlson, AID NYC and many more TBA"                                                                                                                  
-        University of Wisconsin - Madison's Indian Graduate Student Association (IGSA) is hosting a screening of the Bhopali film, but the date is unclear. The post    
reads "December 6, Saturday," 7 p.m. at the Marquee Theatre, Union South, 1308 W. Dayton St.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                         
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PAN PPT session 12/3-6 will "share the testimonies of...the trial's witnesses with a wider audience"                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                         
The Pesticide Action Network's Permanent People's Tribunal (PPT) scheduled for Dec. 3-6 will be held in Bangalore, India.                                                
 - "Jurors" are to include "include renowned legal experts such as Gurdial Singh Nijjar, Director of the Centre of Excellence for Biodiversity Law at the University     
Malaya; Pananchand Jain, retired Rajasthan High Court Justice; and Upendra Baxi, former President of the Indian Society of International Law.[and] scientists and        
experts such as Dr. Ricarda A. Steinbrecher, a biologist and geneticist with the German Federation of Scientists."                                                       
 - The PPT website posted a schedule for livestreaming of the proceedings and when the main speakers will be on. Full text attached.                                     
                                                                                                                                                                         
PAN UK, PAN Asia Pacific (PAN AP) and PAN North America (PANNA) each posted several documents on the event with focus tailored to the respective regions, but do not     
specify allegations against Dow beyond the De-Nocil payments issue.                                                                                                      
-     The PAN UK press release includes several bulleted notes for editors on pesticide issues, so is being attached as a representative sample. All the documents are   
available on request.                                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                         
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12/1 London Assembly press release: questions previously submitted to LOCOG, London mayor                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                         
London Assembly member John Biggs issued a press release about his questioning of Coe, LOCOG CEO Deighton and London mayor Johnson about the appropriateness of the Dow  
sponsorship. Biggs stated his opposition to the sponsorship and included excerpts from transcripts of meetings on Oct. 19 and Nov. 16 when he posed his questions. Biggs 
is the Assembly member representing the constituency including Tower Hamlet, Newham, Barking &amp; Dagenham and the City of London.                                          
http://www.london.gov.uk/media/press_releases_assembly_member/news-john-biggs-olympic-legacy-should-not-include-bhopal                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                         
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Blogs: UK sports writers criticize India boycott idea                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                         
Two sports writer blogs have posts about the potential Indian boycott:                                                                                                   
-        Alan Hubbard of the Independent called the boycott rumor "nothing but a storm in a teacup." He observed, "In any case, boycotts don't work" and cited the       
Moscow and Los Angeles boycotts, where "some athletes may miss out on the bandwagon driven by politicians, but the Games show rolls on regardless." Hubbard tacitly      
discounted Tessa Jowell's protestations, pointing out "all London 2012 board members must have known of, and surely, approved, the financial arrangements with Dow when  
it was made." (Hubbard's post has a few typographical errors that alter the meaning of some phrases, such as IOA president Malhotra "has given assurances that there     
will be a boycott.")                                                                                                                                                     
http://www.insidethegames.biz/blogs/15025-alan-hubbard-indian-olympic-boycott-rumours-were-nothing-but-a-storm-in-a-teacup                                               
                                                                                                                                                                         
-        John Goodbody of the Sunday Times described the boycott call as "a flurry of mild concern.from the unlikely source of India." Goodbody quoted several of the    
parties involved in the conversation but drew no further conclusions.                                                                                                    
http://www.sportsfeatures.com/olympicsnews/story/49210/john-goodbody-the-spectre-of-boycotts-can-always-return-to-the-olympic-games                                      
                                                                                                                                                                         
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Social media: BMA, Twitter campaign for petition; US activist comments on Granholm's program                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                         
BMA's Facebook and Twitter posts include                                                                                                                                 
 - Multiple links to prior media and activist items about the boycott discussion, DAS India's blacklisting, etc.                                                         
 - Link to a 9-minute YouTube video on the Bhopal gas tragedy. The video is not from a recognizable source, has few views.                                               
                                                                                                                                                                         
Anti-Dow Olympics Facebook page:                                                                                                                                         
 - Farah Edwards posted on the a link to BBC radio phone-in program "Nihal" (see media item above) about whether India should boycott the games. Edwards and Lorraine    
Close were upset about the "patronizing" treatment of the topic. Close asked if the Edwards (Tim and Farah) would support her if she wrote to the BBC about the program. 
-   Posts between Lorraine Close and photojournalist Jack Laurenson discussed promotion of her Change.org petition via Twitter as it surpassed 6,000 signatures.         
                                                                                                                                                                         
12/2 Twitter searches for Bhopal as a topic revealed a few hundred tweets, mainly with tie-in to the Olympic sponsorship controversy. Several individuals, including     
Laurenson and "Debbie Aitken" have sent messages to multiple recipients with the same request to support the campaign to drop Dow's sponsorship.                         
A few tweets of interest:                                                                                                                                                
-  Mischa Husain of BBC: "Amnesty received a letter last week in which Lord Sebastian Coe dismissed #humanrights concerns about Dow."                                    
-  Greenpeace: "27th anniversary of #Bhopal tragedy today yet #London2012 sponsors Dow Chemical still not held to account"                                               
-   Jaqueline Magnay: "Indians protesters respectful of seb coe. In burning him they dressed him in a suit. #bhopal"                                                     
-    Weldon Kennedy: "Lorraine telling the story of her experience in #Bhopal and her petition"; "Ken talking about crime of Dow sponsoring Olympics" (these each had    
photos, see attached)                                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                         
12/2 Climate change and water activist JanforGore (Janet Moore) has commented recently on Jennifer Granholm's new show on CurrentTV, with references to Granholm's brief 
stint on Dow's board and the Bhopal and dioxin issues. The latest comment is found here:                                                                                 
http://current.com/groups/current-video/93563579_granholm-i-dont-want-this-show-to-be-about-talking-points.htm                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                       Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                         
12/1 PR Green: No Pesticide Day observance in Puerto Rico                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                         
Puerto Rico Green media reported on World Day of No Pesticide Use as a Bhopal gas tragedy commemoration. On Dec. 3, the Organization Boricua Eco-Organic Agriculture in  
a "brigade in the community of Hato Rey Nuns" will plant a garden without pesticides and invited public participation. A subsequent "brigdade" is planned for Dec. 10    
December at the Jibaro Project in Bo.  Minillas in San German.                                                                                                           
Spanish language article: http://www.miprv.com/dia-mundial-del-no-uso-de-plaguicidas-recordando-el-desastre-en-bhopal/                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                       Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                         
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                                                                  Allis Information Management, Inc..                                                                    

   Please remove me from this mailing list.

    
</description>
    <date>2011-12-03 03:42:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/396300_dow-confidential-bhopal-monitoring-report-friday-december-02.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mongoven@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
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    <files>
      <file><path>attach/35/35360_Activist_info_12-01-11_PPT_livestreaming_schedule.pdf</path><size>21182</size><md5></md5><sha1>a2d93c23a19a95d18b238b0cc42a1768a3a537a9</sha1></file>
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      <file><path>attach/35/35365_Activist_info_11-17-11_PAN_UK_-_PPT_full_press_release.pdf</path><size>79760</size><md5></md5><sha1>4ff1e27c5d8077fea8e5ba23aa1fb1cefa4836f2</sha1></file>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>396396</id>
    <title>Yes Men monitoring 10-20-11
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-10-20 22:30:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/396396_yes-men-monitoring-10-20-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mkolleth@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mmartin@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/35/35382_Activist email 10-17-11 YL - BFFs.doc</path><size>56832</size><md5></md5><sha1>40c43770e5b4cf8fe18005db0a85a45ed58b777b</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>396510</id>
    <title>DOW CONFIDENTIAL: Bhopal Monitoring Report Friday, December 09, 2011
</title>
    <description>Contact AIM for more Information                                                                                                                                                     
Significant Activist Activity                                                                                                                                                        
 Amnesty USA online action addressed to USOC; Amnesty Int'l; Amnesty Canada; AI USA blog post                                                                                        
 Barry Gardiner: website posts of Hindu, "Dow Olympic campaign" update                                                                                                               
 12/3 Rail Roko turns violent, protesters injured and arrested; CM Chouhan agreed to compensation data demand; roko cancelled                                                        
 Petition: Goal attained, extended to 15,000 signatures                                                                                                                              
 Parliament motions: 19 supporters of Scottish motion; UK Early Day stalled at 21                                                                                                    
Media                                                                                                                                                                                
 Local media: Midland Daily News, Saginaw News                                                                                                                                       
 US anniversary actions: ICJB Boston; AID Austin (TX)                                                                                                                                
 12/3 PTI, India Today, ToI: UCC affidavit filing; Dow not recognizing India's juridiction over it                                                                                   
 12/7 Telegraph UK: LOCOG sustainability report favorable to Dow                                                                                                                     
 12/8 BBC: Dow committed to Olympic sponsorship                                                                                                                                      
 Olympic Media Summary                                                                                                                                                               
 12/3 Hindu: Activist coalition, Chomsky statement                                                                                                                                   
 12/3 BBC: Video report from BMA/Livingstone press conference at Olympic stadium                                                                                                     
 12/3 Guardian Ecologist: Blog promotes L. Close petition                                                                                                                            
 12/4-5 Express, Hindu: Tamil Nadu politicians urge boycott of Games                                                                                                                 
 12/5-6 Financial Times, Channel 4: Jowell interviews on opposing Dow Olympics sponsorship                                                                                           
 12/5 Global media: IOA statement on "concern" over "tainted" company sponsoring Olympics                                                                                            
 12/6 India media: IOA concern includes India's future bid for Olympics while Dow stil an IOC partner                                                                                
 12/6 Global media: IOC to IOA - "talk to the athletes" about Dow sponsorship                                                                                                        
 12/8 Telegraph UK: Two reports from Deighton's presentation at IOC meeting                                                                                                          
 12/6 Guardian: Dhingra, Gardiner welcomed IOA 'concern'; Commentary article cites BMA's Close                                                                                       
 12/6 Tribune India: Sarangi - IOA, GoI communications "token efforts"                                                                                                               
 12/6 Siaset: Aslam Sher Khan press event: wrote letter to S Gandhi, offered support to UK MPs                                                                                       
 12/7 PTI, SportzPower: IOA to meet, discuss Dow sponsorship issues 12/9, 12/15                                                                                                      
 12/9 Guardian blog: Recap of Olympics news included London borough politcs involving anti-Dow campaign                                                                              
 12/8 Reuters, PTI: Indian athletes let Dow find "redemption" via Olympic sponsorship; will follow GoI lead on Dow issue                                                             
 12/8 Indian Express: ICJB to hold "Bhopal Olympics"                                                                                                                                 
 Commentaries/editorials: Mid-Day Mumbai, Times of India, Bhopal Chronicle; Sri Lanka, UK media                                                                                      
 Bhopal Anniversary Media Summary                                                                                                                                                    
 12/3 Global media: Bhopal anniversary effigy burnings and protests                                                                                                                  
 12/3 Global media: Rail roko violence                                                                                                                                               
 12/4 AP: Rail roko violence aftermath                                                                                                                                               
 12/4 TwoCircles: Rail roko protest overview; 1/3/12 deadline for MP to submit "correct" data to SC                                                                                  
 12/5 PTI, DNA: 15 Rail roko arrests include gas NGO leader Balkrishna Namdeo                                                                                                        
 12/6 Pioneer: State responsible for rail violence                                                                                                                                   
 12/6-8 India media: MP, ICJB, MP HRC to hold enquiries into violence                                                                                                                
 12/6 Pioneer: Jabbar - ICJB partly responsible for rail violence                                                                                                                    
 12/9 ANI: Bhopal protest of police for rail roko violence calls for Chouhan to resign, threatens to 'ransack' his residence                                                         
 12/8 ToI: Bhopal residents complain of police harassment on questioning over rail roko                                                                                              
 12/7 PTI: Abdul Jabbar wants special courts for gas victims, MP to submit 'correct' data to SC                                                                                      
 12/9 DNA: Chouhan calls for Rs 10 lakh in compensation for 10,000 more gas victims                                                                                                  
 12/4 Express on Sunday: Chingari Trust                                                                                                                                              
 12/5 Pioneer: Chingari Trust awards                                                                                                                                                 
 12/8 Common Dreams: PANNA announced results of People's Tribunal - "Big 6" agrichem firms "guilty" of human rights violations                                                       
Activist Activity                                                                                                                                                                    
 12/4 BhopalNow website: first posting promotes Sambhavna, Chingari facilities                                                                                                       
 12/6 Force Change petition addressed to Liveris to "assume corporate responsibility" and clean up Bhopal                                                                            
 Bhopali film: Invitations to screenings; review; interview with Verma and Carlson                                                                                                   
 Ted Jeory blog: Bhopal visit during anniversary events; Newham mayor supports anti-Dow campaign                                                                                     
 BMA website updates: Bhopali interview; Environmentalist article; Anniversary event reports                                                                                         
 Blogs: Current.com; Toxics Watch; Hadida; sports blogs; UK Progressive; New Internationalist                                                                                        
 Message boards: Nayaran - ICJB action calls during rail violence; Games Monitor posts                                                                                               
 Social media: Farah Edwards driving BMA social media                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Amnesty USA online action addressed to USOC; Amnesty Int'l; Amnesty Canada; AI USA blog post                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Amnesty USA posted an online action addressed to the US Olympic Committee on the Bhopal anniversary and asking it to "raise the issue of Dow's failure to address the long-standing  
environmental and human rights concerns about the Bhopal gas disaster in the Association of National Olympic Committees Executive Council Meeting on 6 December in Switzerland."     
(emphasis added)                                                                                                                                                                     
The online letter also calls for the IOC to amend is Sustainable Sourcing Code to include "an explicit attention to human rights concerns."                                          
Amnesty is seeking for itself "and other groups the opportunity to convey to the Olympic Committee their concerns about Dow's response to the Bhopal tragedy, and that the LOCOG     
prioritize the outstanding needs of survivors of the tragedy."                                                                                                                       
Full text of the letter is attached.                                                                                                                                                 
 - The BMA Twitter feed posted links to the AI USA website, and tweeted once to Amnesty Sweden/Holland.                                                                              
 - As is typical, Amnesty USA has not invested in ongoing promotion of the Bhopal issue, touching on it only in context of the Bhopal anniversary and then returning to more normal  
Amnesty topics.                                                                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Amnesty Int'l posted the Bhopal annivesary press statement by Business and Human Rights director Seema Joshi that was initially posted by Amnesty UK on 12/2.                        
http://www.amnestyusa.org/news/news-item/london-2012-organizers-must-not-forget-bhopal-disaster                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/5 Amnesty Canada website and Amnesty USA's Human Rights blog posted Bhopal items.                                                                                                 
- The Canada site began with a large photo on the front page of an elderly Bhopal activist and linked to the text of the UK Amnesty statement from 12/2, but no apparent link for a  
direct online action. It is also not listed in the Write for Rights campaign as a current issue.                                                                                     
 - The AI USA blog by Govind Acharya linked to the online action to contact the USOC and to Lorraine Close's change.org petition.                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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Barry Gardiner: website posts of Hindu, "Dow Olympic campaign" update                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Barry Gardiner's website had the following updates:                                                                                                                                  
The 12/2 Hindu article with quotes from himself and Noam Chomsky opposing the Dow Olympic sponsorship                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
An update on the Dow Olympic Campaign said it "is gathering momentum" and Gardner has "been busy campaigning with Labour Friends of India." He listed six action updates:            
- "Events in 3 continents" on the 27the Bhopal gas tragedy anniversary - UK, India and Africa                                                                                        
- GoI's instruction to the IOA to communicate with LOCOG and the IOC                                                                                                                 
- Gardiner "raised the issue of the ongoing contamination at Bhopal to leading politicians from 18 of the G20 countries" while at the Climate Change Conference in Durban, S. Africa 
- Navin Shah represented the Labour Friends group at the Bhopal events                                                                                                               
- "Ken Livingstone attended a press conference organized by Labour Friends of India at the Olympic Stadium in Stratford. Ken officially endorsed our campaign at the change.org      
website."                                                                                                                                                                            
- "On Friday released a letter to LOCOG signed by over a hundred celebrities, politicians and Olympians." The update indicated the list of supporters was provided, but no content   
was available.                                                                                                                                                                       
Gardiner ended by saying Coe "must realize if he does not listen" to the protesters, the protests "will continue during the games themselves, and the sporting spectacle will be     
overshadowed by the toxic cloud of Dow."                                                                                                                                             
Full text attached.                                                                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                   Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/3 Rail Roko turns violent, protesters injured and arrested; CM Chouhan agreed to compensation data demand; roko cancelled                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                     
The 12/3 Bhopal rail roko protest turned violent with injuries reported among the protesters, police and media persons. Reports vary on how the clash with police began.             
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Bhopal activists posted a flurry of emails and message board posts calling for telephone calls to PM Singh's office, the MP Chief Minister's office and the Environment and Forests  
ministry office.                                                                                                                                                                     
Subsequent posts reported MP CM Chouhan "agreed on all demands of the survivor groups" and a written statement was said to have been issued from Chouhan's office. As a result of    
Chouhan capitulating, the rail roko was called off. Details of the CM's statement were promised to follow.                                                                           
- An initial ICJB statement posted on its website reported the rail roko turned violent, but it did not mention the Chief Minister capitulating to the demands. That statement       
claimed:                                                                                                                                                                             
"Police in riot gear with shields and "lathis", long heavy clubs, turned out in force and began to attack the survivors, sparing neither the old, women and children.                
"Phone reports speak of people hit by stones and lathis covered in blood. One person is said to be critical in hospital. Many have been arrested. Bodies are lying on the ground in  
scenes reminiscent of the gas disaster of which today is the 27th anniversary. " (emphasis added)                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                     
- A brief update to the post simply stated CM Chouhan agreed to the NGOs demands and to lobby the PM on their behalf.                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/4 ICJB's website was updated with a report on people injured at the rail protest, claiming a teen may lose his hand after being hit by a rubber bullet fired by police. The       
report claimed there were 50,000 at the protest, while media reports had said 15,000. A section said there is "huge public anger at Dow and Coe" over the Olympics sponsorship. Full 
text attached.                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                                     
The site also posted a new image titled "Dow's poison is killing London's Olympics as Dow attempts to censor criticism." That linked to a post of the 12/2 AP story by Kirka and     
Nessman.                                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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Petition: Goal attained, extended to 15,000 signatures                                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Lorraine Close's change.org petition has reached its initial goal of 10,000 signatures and the goal has been raised to 15,000.                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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Parliament motions: 19 supporters of Scottish motion; UK Early Day stalled at 21                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                     
The Scottish Parliament Motion by Joan McAlpine marking the Bhopal gas tragedy anniversary has been signed by 19 supporters: Rob Gibson, Mark McDonald, Dennis Robertson, Humza      
Yousaf, Mike MacKenzie, David Torrance, John Mason, Sandra White, Annabelle Ewing, Adam Ingram, Patrick Harvie, Gil Paterson, Dave Thompson, Kenneth Gibson, Roderick Campbell, Bill 
Kidd, Christina McKelvie, Margaret Burgess, and Linda Fabiani.                                                                                                                       
 - This is the fourth such SPM, with others filed for the 19th, 20th and 22 anniversaries, and one in support of US activist Diane Wilson when she was arrested for trespassing at   
UCC's Seadrift, TX plant. The several motions are attached.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                                     
The UK Early Day Motion by Keith Vaz calling for LOCOG to reconsider the Dow sponsorship deal has not gained any new signers and remains at 21.                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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Local media: Midland Daily News, Saginaw News                                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/3 Midland Daily News ran Friday's AP article by Kirka and Nessman, pp1-2. Bottom left of front page, across fold of second page                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/6 Saginaw News reporter Kathryn Lynch-Morin posted an article on the Bhopal activist opposition to Dow's Olympic sponsorship. She tied together media reports on the              
effigy-burning and protest in Bhopal for the anniversary observances, and today's Reuters report on the IOC advising the IOA to talk with the Indian athletes about the sponsorship. 
The article ended with four paragraphs quoting Scot on Dow's Olympic partnership, and Lynch-Morin inviting public input on whether the activists are right to blame Dow, and whether 
a boycott would "send a message to Dow or hurt Indian sports."                                                                                                                       
Seven comments were posted by eaders. The majority of the comments were in Dow's defense, the others, posted by "greenspleen" are more sympathetic to the activist viewpoint.        
http://www.mlive.com/business/mid-michigan/index.ssf/2011/12/bhopal_victims_continue_to_pro.html#comments                                                                            
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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US anniversary actions: ICJB Boston; AID Austin (TX)                                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/5 The UT-Austin Daily Texan reported on AID Austin's Bhopal anniversary die-in and campaign opposing Dow's Olympic sponsorship. The group was collecting signatures on a petition 
they hope to use to spur "current and former UT Olympians" to make statements opposing the sponsorship.                                                                              
http://www.dailytexanonline.com/news/2011/12/04/aid-austin-seeks-support-removing-dow-chemicals-olympic-sponsorship                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/7 India New England published a report from the ICJB Boston anniversary events of 12/3 titled "Bhopal Occupies Boston."                                                           
About 40 people attended the ICJB presentation by activist Saif Pathan at noon in Dewey Square. The messages reported were - Dow is avoiding responsibility for remediation of       
former UCIL factory site and compensation to gas accident victims, and greenwashing its image with the London 2012 Olympics sponsorship.                                             
Following that event, the group "marched" to Copley Square and joined a larger Occupy demonstration, where they displayed Bhopal banners, distributed flyers among the crowd, and    
"talked to people about the struggle for survivors' rights."                                                                                                                         
The Bhopali film screening at MIT had a "packed audience of about 70 people." Following the film, Bhopal resident and activist Sanjay Verma told the audience "the international     
support for the cause was increasing every year," and encouraged people to sign Lorraine Close's petition opposing the Olympic sponsorship.                                          
http://www.indianewengland.com/ME2/dirmod.asp?sid=&amp;nm=&amp;type=Publishing&amp;mod=Publications%3A%3AArticle&amp;mid=8F3A7027421841978F18BE895F87F791&amp;tier=4&amp;id=556EEDBF136748DD915A1C88429E58B7 
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/3 PTI, India Today, ToI: UCC affidavit filing; Dow not recognizing India's juridiction over it                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                     
PTI reported on the UCC affidavit filed with the Indian Supreme Court rebutting the curative petition calling for more compensation to be paid for the Bhopal gas victims. Pickups   
have been seen by Economic Times, Indian Express and DNA.                                                                                                                            
http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_dow-chemicals-opposes-higher-compensation-for-bhopal-gas-victims_1620981                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                     
India Today also reported on the filing, with a few details of interest. The document is said to include assertions that a large surplus of funds remained with the GoI after the    
gas victims were paid, and that the GoI should return the initial settlement amount to UCC if it reopened the settlement case. Also, the article reported UCC said the GoI needed to 
provided proof of the earning capacity of the gas victims for the purposes of calculating compensation.                                                                              
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/bhopal-gas-tragedy-compensation-union-carbide-vs-government/1/162583.html                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Times of India posted a report on the UCC affidavit filing on the curative petition. It included a few quotes from the document, including that Dow "has not submittted to the       
jurisdiction of the Supreme Court or any other court in India."                                                                                                                      
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Bhopal-gas-tragedy-Wont-submit-to-Supreme-Court-jurisdiction-says-Dow-Chemicals/articleshow/10974484.cms                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/7 Telegraph UK: LOCOG sustainability report favorable to Dow                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                     
UK Telegraph's Jacquelin Magnay included new sustainability review information in a report on Rogge's direction to the IOA to talk about Dow's sponsorship with the Indian athletes. 
IOA acting president Malhotra said discussion about Dow will be on the agenda for the IOA executive board meeting on Dec. 15 as the issue "has become a global concern."             
Dow's position on Bhopal was given, followed by two paragraphs reporting "LOCOG sustainability watchdog Shaun McCarthy supported [Dow's] position."                                  
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/columnists/jacquelin-magnay/8939596/London-2012-Olympics-Jacques-Rogge-backs-chemical-giant-Dow-over-Bhopal-disaster.html                           
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/8 BBC: Dow committed to Olympic sponsorship                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                                     
BBC reported on Dow's stated commitment to remain as a sponsor for the London 2012 Olympic Games. The article included a timeline of events involving Dow  in India and development  
of the London Games.                                                                                                                                                                 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-16089139                                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                   Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Olympic Media Summary                                                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Media coverage of the anti-Dow Olympics campaign began slowly, with single reports on activist statements in the Hindu (Chomsky, Gardiner); Guardian's Ecologist blog (L. Close      
petition); Express News (Tamil Nadu politicians Vaiko and Thirumavalavan); and Financial Times (Jowell).                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                     
GOI/Indian Olympic Association's (IOA) statement  it would communicate with IOC over concerns about Dow's sponsorship received global media attention with reports from AP, AFP,     
Reuters, and Indian wire services IANS, UNI, ANI, IBNS, and PTI.                                                                                                                     
- AP usage was highest in US and Canada (about 50 pickups)                                                                                                                           
- AFP, Reuters were mainly used internationally (about 25 to 35 each)                                                                                                                
- PTI appeared most used in India, while the rest of Indian wires appeared about evenly split                                                                                        
- Int'l Business Times, First Post issued original reports                                                                                                                           
- WSJ India RealTime blog posted Indian wire links twice                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                     
IOC statement confirming Dow's suitability and counseling IOA to talk with India's athletes received coverage by Reuters, Int'l Business Times, Guardian, PTI, and India's media     
majors. Reuters was used by New York Times, Yahoo! News, some US broadcast outlets, and filtered through international and sports media over two days. Indian media coverage was     
widespread, including numerous PTI pickups, Times of India (TOI), Hindu, Economic Times, SportzPower and the Statesman.                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                                     
PTI reported IOA to meet 12/9, 12/17 to discuss "Dow issues." Multiple pickups throughout Indian media.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Print editions of India's major media published articles Sunday through Thursday on these stories, mainly in the Sports sections.                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Commentary appeared from many quarters                                                                                                                                               
- Hindustan Times - editorial said Dow should use sponsorship money to "clean up poisons"                                                                                            
- Mid-Day Mumbai - hypocrisy of India protesting Dow Olympic sponsorship while letting the company operate in India                                                                  
- SportzPower - suggested is GOI using stalling tactic on Olympic protests in hopes momentum will slow                                                                               
- TOI - point/counterpoint editorials on Dow sponsorship and Indian boycott; questioning why India did not protest sponsorship in 2010                                               
- Central Chronicle - Rizvi's change.org petition surpassing 750 signatures puts "significant pressure" on IOA for 12/15 meeting                                                     
- Sri Lanka Guardian - Dow risking reputation and good will over Olympic sponsorship                                                                                                 
- North West Times (London)- criticized Coe for Dow sponsorship, encouraged readers to email UK Culture commission in protest                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Individual articles reported responses from multiple stakeholders:                                                                                                                   
- Tribune India: ICJB leaders Sarangi, Dhingra, Sarangi called the IOA message to IOC a "token effort"; Dhingra promised a "Bhopal Olympics"                                         
- Siaset: Aslam Sher Khan called for an Olympic boycott, promised to bring up Dow sponsorship "in a big way" at 12/15 IOA meeting                                                    
- Reuters, PTI -  Current top Indian athletes are either against a boycott or noncommittal when asked                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                   Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/3 Hindu: Activist coalition, Chomsky statement                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                     
 - The Hindu published an article about the cross-party activist coalition targeting Dow with quotes from Noam Chomsky 'backing' the campaign against Dow's Olympic sponsorship      
because "the people of Bhopal have struggled to enforce accountability for one of the worst coporate crimes in history."                                                             
http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-international/article2682675.ece                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/3 BBC: Video report from BMA/Livingstone press conference at Olympic stadium                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                     
 BBC posted a video report was from the BMA's press conference held 12/2 outside the Olympic stadium. Activist representatives addressing the press were Lorraine Close, Tim Edwards 
and Farah Edwards. Ken Livingstone was not on camera. The reporter said of the stadium sponsorship, "it looks like the campaigners aren't going to get their way" although it does   
present problems for LOCOG. Lorraine Close described in a fairly passionless manner the issues facing the Bhopal gas victims and the rationale for involving Dow in the issues.      
Farah Edwards asserted the gas victims may go on a hunger strike nearer or during the Olympics "if the wrap stays." Close's change.org petition was briefly shown on screen.         
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-16011649                                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/3 Guardian Ecologist: Blog promotes L. Close petition                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                     
The UK Guardian's Ecologist blog promoted Lorraine Close's change.org petition to Lord Coe opposing the Dow stadium wrap sponsorship.                                                
http://www.theecologist.org/how_to_make_a_difference/campaigning_the_basics/1154320/petition_to_stop_dow_chemical_partnering_with_2012_london_olympics.html                          
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/4-5 Express, Hindu: Tamil Nadu politicians urge boycott of Games                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Express News Service reported two Tamil Nadu politicians, MDMK leader Vaiko and VCK leader Thol Thirumavalavan, told the media India should boycott the Olympics unless Dow's        
sponsorship is cancelled.                                                                                                                                                            
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/boycott-dowsponsored-london-olympics-vaiko/208474-60-118.html                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                     
The HIndu also reported Vaiko and Tirumavalavan appealing to the IOA and GoI to pressure LOCOG to drop the Dow sponsorship deal.                                                     
http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/article2687974.ece                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/5-6 Financial Times, Channel 4: Jowell interviews on opposing Dow Olympics sponsorship                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Financial Times reported on Tessa Jowell's involvement in the campaign opposing Dow's Olympic sponsorship. She said she considers the sponsorship deal "provocative" and that she    
would never do anything to "inflict damage on the Games." The article described the opposition campaign as attracting "little interest in India outside of Bhopal" and said Jowell   
was not successful in meeting with Indian officials last week to discuss the sponsorship. She denied a conflict of interest exists between her LOCOG board membership and the        
opposition campaign. She said she is "seeking a 'negotiated solution'" with two possible solutions - Dow withdraws or "offers what she called a 'substantial programme of            
mitigation.'"                                                                                                                                                                        
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b1149dd8-1eb3-11e1-bae4-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1fd1TIYz8                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Channel 4 News posted a brief article and video report on India protesting Dow's Olympic sponsorship. The text article contained the basic items about the IOA, LOCOG and Dow        
statements, while the video included an approximately 4-minute interview of Tessa Jowell by Channel 4 news reader Jon Snow. Snow asked if Jowell had "seen this problem coming," to  
which she replied by describing events of her trip to India last week. Jowell was to have spoken at a sports conference which was cancelled, and she thought this was because the    
GoI was afraid she would use that platform to talk about Bhopal and Dow. She said she would not have done so.                                                                        
Jowell said she met with "a number of people who are concerned, including the senior counsel for the Indian government on the Indian Olympic Association issue and the five NGOs."   
Snow prompted her about the original question, and Jowell began to list "options," including that Dow could withdraw since the wrap was only to "enhance the appearance of the       
stadium for television." On further prompting, she admitted she did not know about the sponsorship until September and had "been pursuing it ever since."                            
http://www.channel4.com/news/indian-government-protests-dow-olympic-sponsorship                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/5 Global media: IOA statement on "concern" over "tainted" company sponsoring Olympics                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                     
AP, AFP, Reuters, IANS, UNI and IBNS issued wire reports related to the Indian Olympic Association statement about Dow's Olympic sponsorship.                                        
 - AP and UNI reported the IOA would communicate to LOCOG the Bhopal gas victims are "strongly protesting" Dow's sponsorship of the stadium wrap. Dow's position on the Bhopal issue 
and the purchase of UCC were given in the second paragraph of the report. IOA said it was not happy that "tainted" sponsors were being associated with the Games. IOA acting         
president V K Malhotra said the topic would be addressed at a 12/15 meeting.                                                                                                         
AP http://www.timesunion.com/news/article/Indian-Olympic-group-unhappy-over-Dow-sponsorship-2344972.php                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                                     
 - AP had approximately 50 pickups, mostly in US and Canadian local, regional and broadcast outlets, as well as Washington Post, Washington Examiner, SF Examiner and New Orleans    
Times-Picayune websites.                                                                                                                                                             
 - AFP, Reuters and IANs pickups were between two and three dozen each.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Several media outlets posted in-house reports on the IOA's instructions and intent to convey to LOCOG and/or the IOC that the GoI, NGOs and others are "unhappy" with Dow's Olympic  
sponsorship. WSJ's IndiaRealTime blog included the Indian Express version of the story at the top of its daily headlines collection. The content was much the same as reported       
above.                                                                                                                                                                               
 - PTI http://www.hindustantimes.com/India-news/NewDelhi/India-to-raise-issue-of-Dow-Olympics-sponsorship/Article1-778111.aspx                                                       
 - International Business Times http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/261171/20111205/2012-london-olympics-india-raise-issue-dow.htm                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                                     
 - IANS reported more detail from Malhotra's statement, saying IOA "[understands] the feelings of the players, government and the NGOs [and] will try to make the games organisers   
aware of the feeling of the people who have suffered in that tragedy. It is not only the Indians who are protesting this sponsorship, there has been an outcry against this world    
over from various NGO's and other bodies. It is no longer a local issue.'"                                                                                                           
This article said the GoI asked the IOA to address the issue with LOCOG and "ask them to reconsider their move."                                                                     
http://in.news.yahoo.com/ioa-convey-concern-bhopal-victims-london-organisers-124750787.html                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                                     
 - AFP Reuters, and IANS went a step further into the GoI/IOA communications, reporting the Sports Ministry asked the IOA to "raise this matter immediately with the IOC (emphasis   
added) while keeping the [GoI] informed."                                                                                                                                            
Sports minister A J Maken wrote to the IOA, "expressing his concern over the Dow issue that has been vehemently criticized by the Bhopal Gas leak victims and even by several former 
Olympians."                                                                                                                                                                          
Reuters http://in.news.yahoo.com/india-raise-issue-dow-olympics-sponsorship-073535293.html (picked up by The Guardian)                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                     
 - PTI and ANI also provided more coverage of the GoI's instructing the IOA to communicate with Olympics officials about the Dow sponsorship. In a first article, PTI quoted         
extensively from an emailed statement from Dow that, "misrepresentation of facts is wrong," while a second article quoted extensively from Sports minister Maken's statement. He     
called it "insensitive to the Bhopal gas victims" for the IOC to move ahead with the sponsorship.                                                                                    
PTI1: http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_misrepresentation-of-facts-is-wrong-dow-chemical_1621872                                                                                  
PTI2: http://www.rediff.com/sports/report/insensitive-bhopal-gas-victims-maken-ioc-dow-chemicals-union-carbide/20111205.htm                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                                     
 - ANI reported Sarangi commented favorably about the GoI's move, but said "much more" still needed to be done in terms of political consensus to maintain the campaign's momentum.  
http://www.dailyindia.com/show/474535.php                                                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/6 India media: IOA concern includes India's future bid for Olympics while Dow stil an IOC partner                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Several Indian media outlets published further reporting on the IOA's statement on Monday to the IOC and LOCOG:                                                                      
 - Telegraph India reported part of the concern over Dow's sponsorship is its position as an IOC partner through the 2020 Games, for which India had planned to bid. It also         
reported the letter to IOA from the Sports ministry was written by Rahul Bhatnagar, a joint secretary at the ministry.                                                               
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1111206/jsp/nation/story_14844874.jsp                                                                                                                  
 - The Hindu and NDTV also reported India would like to bid to host a future Games, and has asked the "Indian mission in London to get more details from the organizers" about Dow's 
sponsorship. Hindu noted Liveris is an India-US CEO Forum member, "but has stayed away from the meetings...due to the sensitivities involved."                                       
Hindu http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article2689249.ece                                                                                                                       
 - Times of India and PTI reported Sports Minister A J Maken urged the IOC to "consider the sentiments" involving Bhopal and Dow, said he "won't let Bhopal down," and that it       
"would be embarrassing that on one hand we are asking for extradition of [Warren Anderons] and on the other hand we are partnering with those people."                               
ToI http://www.timesnow.tv/Wont-let-Bhopal-down-says-Maken/articleshow/4390681.cms                                                                                                   
- Express News Service, SportzPower, Economic Times and the Statesman also posted reports on the IOA statement.                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/6 Global media: IOC to IOA - "talk to the athletes" about Dow sponsorship                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Reuters and a few other media outlets reported IOC president Jacques Rogge "urged the IOA to talk to its athletes" about the protests over Dow's Olympic sponsorship. He reiterated  
the IOC's position that Bhopal was a "horrific catastrophe" with which India has "a lot of emotion," but Dow "was not involved in the Bhopal issue." He added that every call for    
India to boycott the games "is a measure that is hurting Indian sport and I am glad to say that there is no intention at the level of the IOA to consider such actions."             
This Bhopal content is in the second half of the article, which is titled and initially about soccer (football) global leader Havelange resigning from the IOC.                      
There were approximately two dozen pickups of the story, including the New York Times, Yahoo! Eurosport, South Africa's Sunday Tribune and Independent Online, and a handful of US   
broadcast outlets.                                                                                                                                                                   
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2011/12/06/sports/olympics/sports-us-olympics-rogge.html?_r=1&amp;hp                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                     
International Business Times also reported on the meeting, with an article specifically on instructing the IOA to talk with the Indian athletes and that boycotting would "hurt      
Indian sport."                                                                                                                                                                       
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/262133/20111206/boycotting-london-olympics-2012-hurt-indian-sport.htm                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/8 Telegraph UK: Two reports from Deighton's presentation at IOC meeting                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                                     
The UK Telegraph published two items by Jacqueline Magnay mentioning Dow's sponsorship and Bhopal:                                                                                   
 - The first was a report on the IOC's decision add Ireland to the Olympic torch relay route. This contained a brief mention of Dow as part of LOCOG's presentation to the IOC this  
week.                                                                                                                                                                                
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/olympics/8944065/London-2012-Olympics-torch-relay-to-visit-Ireland.html                                                                             
 - The second reported the IOC heard from LOCOG CEO Paul Deighton to expect opposition to Dow's sponsorship to be ongoing. Ken Livingstone's interest in the issue, the Coe effigy   
burning, IOA being pressured on the topic and today's statement by Indian athlete Gagan Narang are also noted.                                                                       
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/olympics/8944225/London-2012-Olympics-International-Olympic-Committee-braced-for-Dow-protests.html                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/9 UK Telegraph's Olympics diary blog included a summary of Thursday's blog post reporting LOCOG CEO Deighton told the IOC continued protest over Dow's sponsorship is expected.   
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/sport/shart/100022330/london-2012-olympics-diary-mcdonalds-fails-to-get-staff-into-games-spirit/                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/6 Guardian: Dhingra, Gardiner welcomed IOA 'concern'; Commentary article cites BMA's Close                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                     
The UK's Guardian reported both Rachna Dhingra and Barry Gardiner made statements about the IOA's message to the IOC. Dhingra said the NGOs asked for that action six months ago,    
and "welcome it, but it needs to go further." Gardiner said the GoI and IOA "have done the right thing by standing up to Dow's involvement.... LOCOG must realize that this issue    
will not go away, and the longer they leave the decision to kick out Dow the larger the protests will grow."                                                                         
No online article, full text available on request.                                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                                     
The Guardian also published a commentary by Richard Williams criticizing the stadium wrap, Dow's sponsorship and quoting BMA activist Lorraine Close in describing contaminated      
water and surroundings in Bhopal. Readers are encouraged to sign Close's change.org petition asking Lord Coe to drop Dow's sponsorship.                                              
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2011/dec/05/london-olympics-dow-bhopal-legacy?newsfeed=true                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/6 Tribune India: Sarangi - IOA, GoI communications "token efforts"                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Tribune India posted a lengthy article on the IOA's communication to IOC. Sarangi is cited, saying government effort is a "token exchange of words and gestures" and the GoI "should 
categorically state that it will make no compromise on the matter of a corporation which is responsible for the poisoning and death of thousands of people."                         
The article ends with a section labeled "The Dow Story," relating that UCC was an early investor in India, UCIL ownership of the Bhopal facility, and "After the accident, UCC       
downplayed damages and diverted attention and liability on the local company to escape criminal and civil liability. Later, it absolved itself completely of all responsibility by   
merging with the $9.3-billion Dow Chemical, one of the world's largest chemical companies."                                                                                          
http://www.tribuneindia.com/2011/20111206/main7.htm                                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/6 Siaset: Aslam Sher Khan press event: wrote letter to S Gandhi, offered support to UK MPs                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                     
India's Siaset Daily posted a lengthy article by Pervez Bari about Aslam Sher Khan making statements to the press about writing to Sonia Gandhi, Barry Gardiner, Keith Vaz and Tessa 
Jowell about the Dow sponsorship. The letter to Gandhi, which was copied to "all the members of the Congress Working Committee," called for IOA to make a formal protest to LOCOG.   
To the British MPs, Sher Khan offered his support and had a reply from Vaz. He called for Indian MPs to "take up the issue," as have the UK MPs, and claimed he would "not hesitate  
to don the (anti-corruption) role of Anna Hazare in getting proper justice to the victims and survivors.." He also said he will bring up the Bhopal issue "in a big way at the       
former Olympians meeting" as part of the 12/15 IOA meeting.                                                                                                                          
 - PTI, ToI and UNI also reported more briefly from Sher Khan's press event.                                                                                                         
http://www.siasat.com/english/news/ex-olympian-aslam-sher-writes-sonia-dow-chemical-sponsorship-london-olympics                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/7 PTI, SportzPower: IOA to meet, discuss Dow sponsorship issues 12/9, 12/15                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                                     
PTI reported the IOA will meet on 12/9  to discuss the issues regarding Dow's Olympic sponsorship, according to IOA vice-president Tarlochan Singh. The article also noted the       
executive board and general body meeting will take place December 15, as widely reported. Tarlochan said, "The matter has to be thoroughly discussed, we can't take a decision on    
our own. The sentiments of the people of Bhopal are also important." The article was picked up by multiple India outlets, including Economic Times, Times of India, IBNLive, India   
Today and Zee News.                                                                                                                                                                  
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/et-cetera/ioa-calls-meeting-to-discuss-dow-olympic-sponsorship-row/articleshow/11019537.cms                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
SportzPower confirmed the 12/9 meeting reported by PTI . SportzPower said the IOA "has gone on a back foot" as its secretary general Raja Randhir Singh is in Switzerland meeting    
with the IOC, and acting president V K Malhotra "remaining silent," so vice president Tarlochan Singh has apparently taken the lead on the "crisis." The article described the       
week's developments from Indian agencies and the IOC, and ended with "Last learnt, the IOA will stick to its position on Indian participating in London Games, but the athletes in   
the committee, many of whom are from Bhopal, will not accept that."                                                                                                                  
http://www.sportzpower.com/?q=content/ioa-pushing-participating-london-games-athletes-commoners-oppose                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/9 Guardian blog: Recap of Olympics news included London borough politcs involving anti-Dow campaign                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                     
A Guardian blog post by Dave Hill recapped the GoI/IOA communication to IOC, and its response. He referred back to the 12/2 activist coalition press conference at the Olympic       
stadium and noted BMA said Dow is "shifting" responsibility for Bhopal to the Indian governments. Hill also quoted Ken Livingstone from the press conference saying if he is elected 
Mayor of London next May, "he would be 'looking for a legal challenge to try and drop Dow Chemical' and in the meantime would be 'writing personally to Seb Coe to say I think this  
is a catastrophic error and it isn't going to go away.'"                                                                                                                             
Hill mentioned the Newham council's support of the anti-Dow campaign, and that Tower Hamlets mayor Lutfur Rahman is also in favor of the campaign.  He referred readers to Ted       
Jeory's latest blog post about Rahman's support.                                                                                                                                     
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/davehillblog/2011/dec/08/dow-olympic-stadium-wrap-cross-party-opposition                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/8 Reuters, PTI: Indian athletes let Dow find "redemption" via Olympic sponsorship; will follow GoI lead on Dow issue                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Reuters reported India's first athlete to qualify for the London Olympics, marksman Gagan Narang, said Dow's Olympics sponsorship is an opportunity for the company to gain          
"redemption" and should be allowed. He agreed with IOC president Rogge that a boycott would only hurt the Indian athletes, and stated the athletes are to go to the Games as         
ambassadors for their country.                                                                                                                                                       
Pickups were not extensive, mainly Reuters and Yahoo! outlets.                                                                                                                       
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/08/olympics-india-boycott-idUSL3E7N83LW20111208                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                     
PTI reported Indian tennis player Sania Mirza said she would follow the government's instructions on the issue of a boycott: "As athletes we will go with what the country decides." 
Multiple pickups                                                                                                                                                                     
http://sports.in.msn.com/tennis/article.aspx?cp-documentid=5648177                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                                     
The UK Press Association posted a report on UK female cyclist Emma Pooley on her involvement in an Afghan human rights campaign. She was asked about "the controversy surrounding    
Dow Chemical Company's involvement with London's showpiece Olympic stadium," and answered "generally" about "almost all" large multinational companies having "a breach of ethics    
somewhere." The article then gave a description of the controversy issues. The piece was reposted on the Financial Mail's Women's Forum.                                             
http://www.fmwf.com/features/2011/12/olympic-athlete-calls-for-womens-rights-in-afghanistan/                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/8 Indian Express: ICJB to hold "Bhopal Olympics"                                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Indian Express reported Rachna Dhingra stated the ICJB would do everything it could to hold a "Bhopal Olympics" with children from Bhopal, Vietnam, Nicaragua "and other countries." 
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/Bhopal-may-defy-IOC-with-own--Olympics-/885241/                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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Commentaries/editorials: Mid-Day Mumbai, Times of India, Bhopal Chronicle; Sri Lanka, UK media                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/4 Deccan Herald has posted an editorial titled "Dow's stink," calling LOCOG's sponsorship award "insenstive and in poor taste." A boycott by India is considered an option, but   
unfair to Indian athletes.                                                                                                                                                           
http://www.deccanherald.com/content/209367/dows-stink.html                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/7 Mid-Day Mumbai published a strong commentary by Ranjona Banerji on the GoI and Indian public's "hypocrisy" over the Bhopal gas tragedy. Banerji asked why Dow's Olympic         
sponsorship is "so unbearable" when Dow's presence in India is not, and cites the Jaipur foot camps and Habitat for Humanity. Banerji blamed the government and "unconvincing"       
politicians for not doing enough for the gas victims, and asked successive questions about why the victims have not received enough compensation, who is responsible for it, and     
suggested using "bribes saved after Lokpal Bill is passed to fund the needed compensation." The column concluded the campaign to cancel Dow's Olympic sponsorship "looks like one    
more way to create a lot of hot air amounting to precisely nothing substantial for the people of Bhopal."                                                                            
http://www.mid-day.com/news/2011/dec/071211-opinion-The-hypocrisy-of-the-Bhopal-tragedy.htm                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/7 Indian sports media SportzPower reported it has accessed the note from India's Ministry of External Affairs to the PM's Office regarding Dow's Olympic sponsorship and posted   
some excerpts.                                                                                                                                                                       
The report began with Rogge's statement to the IOA about talking with its athletes and acknowledging the emotional sensitivity of the Bhopal issue. SportzPower pragmatically noted  
"Rogge's line of argument is only to be expected."                                                                                                                                   
The note excerpts were that Coe told the Indian mission in London he and LOCOG are satisfied with the Dow sponsorship decision "and offered to make a presentation for the Mission   
on the issue. The Mayor of London has indicated he would like to know our thinking in this matter, give the importance of the relations between India and the United Kingdom."       
The note indicated the Mission was directed to "seek presentation from [LOCOG] and share the presentation with the Ministry of Youth Affairs and Sports."                            
SportzPower concluded the GoI was "going through the proper channels" but LOCOG's response was predictable, and asked if the GoI's actions were "showing serious intent when the     
real intention is to buy time under the expectation that the protests will lose momentum over the coming months? More than likely."                                                  
http://www.sportzpower.com/?q=content/rogge-asks-ioa-settle-dow-row-indian-athletes-govt                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/7 Times of India published two editorial pieces with opposing viewpoints on the Olympic sponsorship issue.                                                                        
 - One called the sponsorship and the IOC's support of it morally offensive and in violation of the Olympic spirit.                                                                  
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/opinion/edit-page/Cannot-evade-moral-issues/articleshow/11022713.cms                                                                         
 - The other said talk of an Indian boycott "is going a step too far" and questioned whether it was "truly advisable to hold sport ransom to a political and legal issue in this     
manner?" Examples of winning Olympic performances in unlikely circumstances given included Jesse Owens' four gold medals in Nazi Berlin.                                             
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/opinion/edit-page/Sport-should-transcend-politics/articleshow/11022747.cms                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                                     
A Times of India sports column writer found it "curious" the IOA had not objected to Dow's IOC partnership when it was announced in 2010. The inevitability of Dow working with all  
the National Olympic Committees before and during the London Games was "of critical importance to India," and "under such a scenario, India may even ask the IOC to reconsider its   
deal with Dow." The piece covered the Sports ministry's letter to the IOA about communicating with the IOC on the matter, and the IOC's response. The article ended by mentioning    
Lord Coe's assurance Dow "was not involved in the gas disaster in Bhopal," and that he "pooh-poohed" the possibility of an Indian boycott.                                           
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/sports/events-tournaments/london-olympics/Govt-asks-IOA-to-take-up-Dow-issue-with-IOC/articleshow/10998872.cms                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Bhopal Central Chronicle reported on the "other" change.org petition that was addressed to the IOA and intended for athletes to sign. The item has gathered 900 signatures of 1,000  
targeted. The Chronicle reporter claimed the petition surpassing 750 signatures made it a significant pressure on the IOA going into the Dec. 15 meeting.                            
http://www.centralchronicle.com/ioa-faces-new-pressure-to-boycott-dow-olympic-2012.html                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Sri Lanka Guardian posted a commentary about Dow risking its reputation and good will over the Olympics sponsorship. This included a description of DAS India being blacklisted.     
http://www.srilankaguardian.org/2011/12/dow-chemical-now-facing-image-issues-in.html                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                                     
UK local media North West Times published a lengthy letter to the editor criticizing Lord Coe for the Dow sponsorship and claiming it would result in "big protests and disrupt the  
Games," with the possibility of "bringing Wembley and other venues to a standstill." The letter encouraged readers to email the Culture, Media and Sport commission "asking for the  
decision to be reversed," and to sign Lorraine Close's change.org petition. No name was provided, full text is available on request.                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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Bhopal Anniversary Media Summary                                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/2 BBC and Reuters reported on the Bhopal anniversary protests and effigy burnings held Friday. Limited pickup of the Reuters story.                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/3 The ICJB's rail roko protest and resulting violence drew global coverage led by AP and AFP. AP issued an update to its original wire story, with more than 100 combined         
pickups; the AFP piece received about two dozen pickups.                                                                                                                             
Indian media reported heavily on the events, sending successive posts from the scene as the news developed. PTI, IBNS, UNI, Pioneer, DNA and broadcast news covered the event. PTI   
and Pioneer were most prolific in filing reports, and PTI was widely picked up by Indian and Asian media outlets.                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/4 AP issued a follow-up report from Bhopal with reactions from activists and public figures. Fewer than 50 pickups were seen, spread across international outlets and a handful   
in the US, mainly broadcast outlets.                                                                                                                                                 
Indian media majors published in-house reporting on the violence aftermath, including the Hindu, Hindustan Times, Times of India, Daily News &amp; Analysis (DNA) and Asian Age.         
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/5-7 A variety of Indian media reported NGOs, public figures and agencies either called for or announced enquiry panels to investigate the rail roko violence.                     
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/3 Global media: Bhopal anniversary effigy burnings and protests                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Reuters issued an article on the campaign against Dow's Olympics sponsorship, the proposed boycott by Indian athletes, Malhotra's statement the IOA would not entertain a boycott    
vote, MP CM Chouhan's letter to India's Sports Minister, and the gas NGOs demands for more compensation.                                                                             
Few pickups.                                                                                                                                                                         
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/260538/20111202/dow-chemical-s-sponsorship-london-olympics-angers.htm                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
BBC posted a report on the protest and burning of effigies of Lord Coe and IOA president Malhotra, the gas NGOs demands for more compensation, and Dow's response to criticism of    
its sponsoring the Olympic stadium wrap.                                                                                                                                             
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-16001266                                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/3 Global media: Rail roko violence                                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Associated Press initially reported on the rail roko and the resulting violence. About 15,000 people were reported to have participated. Reporter Rafiq Maqbool cited ICJB's Rachna  
Dhingra saying the police "charged the protesters with sticks" (called 'lathi') and at least three people were hospitalized with injuries. Maqbool reported the protesters threw     
stones at the police and that several police vehicles were burned or damaged. He also cited Dhingra saying "the government has undermined the [Bhopal gas] victims" over             
compensation for the 1984 accident. The NGOs demand for $8.1 billion from Dow is mentioned, as well as the GoI's bid for $1.7 billion from Dow. Dow's position on the Bhopal issue   
is included briefly.                                                                                                                                                                 
An updated version of this article reported CM Chouhan agreed to "back thier campaign and lobby the Prime Minister for his support" and the rail roko was subsequently cancelled.    
Numerous US and international pickups, including the Wall Street Journal website, Washington Post, San Francisco Chronicle, Business Week and NPR websites.                          
http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_27th-anniversary-of-the-bhopal-gas-disaster-turns-violent_1620727                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Agence France Press reported Dhingra said the protest was "peaceful agitation but the police used force against us in a bid to silence us." An MP official said the police "were     
acting under a law prohibiting unlawful assembly."  Chouhan's call for India to boycottt the Olympics was included, as was a brief version of Dow's position statement on the Bhopal 
liabilities. Multiple pickups.                                                                                                                                                       
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hkyhWDqQ1mBqA8dlL7UHvQbxtgMw?docId=CNG.794d1157fe2364fc0e0dcd6a77edbd08.131                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                                     
India Blooms News Service posted two items on the police response to the protest, quoting an activist saying shots may have been fired.                                              
http://www.indiablooms.com/NewsDetailsPage/2011/newsDetails031211g.php                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                     
PTI reported Abdul Jabbar condemned the violence and called for the release of those who had been arrested.                                                                          
http://expressbuzz.com/nation/bhopal-gas-tragedy-violence-marks-anniversary/339807.html                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                                     
UNI reported CM Chouhan said there will be in an inquiry into the day's violence.                                                                                                    
http://news.webindia123.com/news/Articles/India/20111203/1884050.html                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Pioneer posted several reports describing the events of the day, including:                                                                                                          
- Stone-throwers were "youth" taking cover in the "maze of bylanes" opening on to the area where the rail roko was held. It includes a listing of the ten people who were reported   
as hospitalized after the protest - seven were police or media.                                                                                                                      
http://dailypioneer.com/state-editions/bhopal/25174-maze-of-bylanes-gave-stone-pelters-the-edge.html                                                                                 
 - Congress party leaders "slammed" the MP govt and police for the violence at the rail roko.                                                                                        
http://dailypioneer.com/state-editions/bhopal/25176-bhuria-singh-slams-mp-govt-for-police-action-on-survivors.html                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/4 AP: Rail roko violence aftermath                                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
The AP issued a follow-up story by Rafiq Mabool reporting on the rail roko and the protesters' clash with police. Rachna Dhingra was cited as describing the confrontation, and      
decrying the government's "betrayal [and] undermininng the victims." CM Chouhan's promise to support the gas NGO demands to PM Singh and the subsequent cancellation of the rail     
roko were mentioned. The previously-used content about the NGOs demanding $8.1 billion more in compensation from Dow was included, as was Dow's position on the Bhopal settlement.   
 The article endsed with the NGOs, "a few officials" and the 21 former Olympians opposing Dow's Olympic sponsorship.                                                                 
Several pickups in US regional media outlets and international media, primarily in Pakistan.                                                                                         
http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2011/dec/04/gas-leak-survivors-protest-settlement/                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/4 TwoCircles: Rail roko protest overview; 1/3/12 deadline for MP to submit "correct" data to SC                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                                     
TwoCircles.net Muslim Indian media posted a long and detailed review of Saturday's protest, mashing together multiple media reports. While the writing gets unclear in a few places, 
it is a good overview of the entire event and has a few items not seen elsewhere                                                                                                     
 - NGO leader Balkrishna Namdeo said the groups have set a deadline of Jan. 3 for CM Chouhan to submit "correct figures before the Supreme Court or else the survivors would again   
stop trains."                                                                                                                                                                        
 - Chouhan told the activists they can have representatives there when he meets with PM Singh, and that a special court for the gas victims cases "will be considered." He also      
promised a "team of experts" would assess damage to "population and environment due to gas leak" and compensation demands would be based on the findings.                            
http://twocircles.net/2011dec04/bopal_gas_tragedy_police_beats_survivors_train_blockade.html                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/5 PTI, DNA: 15 Rail roko arrests include gas NGO leader Balkrishna Namdeo                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                     
The aftermath of Saturday's rail roko reported about 15 arrests were made.                                                                                                           
 -PTI reported "around 70" people were identified from videos as being involved in the stone throwing and will apparently be pursued and charged. Gas NGO leader Balkrishna Namdeo   
is being targeted by police as "identified on video."                                                                                                                                
http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_violence-on-bhopal-gas-tragedy-anniversary-15-arrested_1621669                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                     
 - DNA reported "500" unidentified persons have had charges registered by police for arson and stone throwing at the protest.                                                        
http://daily.bhaskar.com/article/MP-BHO-bhopal-gas-tragedy-cases-against-500-people-for-arson-2616125.html                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/6 Pioneer: State responsible for rail violence                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Pioneer reported Congress Party Member of Parliament (Ujjain) Premchand Guddu filed a memorandum with the MP government saying the state is "responsible for all that happened on    
Saturday." He said the police and state officials had plenty of prior notice the rail roko was planned.                                                                              
http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/bhopal/25749-cong-mp-demands-high-level-probe-into-rail-roko-incident.html                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/6-8 India media: MP, ICJB, MP HRC to hold enquiries into violence                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                                     
IBNS reported the ICJB issued a press statement condemning the violence at the rail roko and stating they will perform their own enquiry into the matter, "presided over by a        
retired judge of the High Court or Supreme Court." They have called again for the release of all 14 men still in police custody and said they will help survivors "gather evidence   
and initiate formal proceedings against those responsible for the violence, including the police." The NGOs apologized to the media people who were injured. The article was not     
available for online access, full text available on request.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Several media items reported on press statements issued Tuesday about the rail roko violence in Bhopal.                                                                              
 - UNI, DNA, The Pioneer, Indian Express and Ummid reported on the ICJB press conference, citing Sarangi and Rashida Bee on claims the police initiated the confrontation, their     
intent to hold an independent inquiry, and calls for individuals to bring evidence from the incident. Sarangi said of gas NGO leader Balkrishna Namdeo, if they had evidence to      
substantiate the charges against him, the group "will ourselves walk him to the jail."                                                                                               
Ummid's report, by Pervez Bari, included content on the ICJB apologizing to the media persons who were injured or lost equipment and vehicles during the melee, and a listing of     
women attending the press conference who had been injured. These include Hazra Bee, Bano Bee, and "Ms Rafat" [of Children Against Dow-Carbide].                                      
UNI: http://www.ummid.com/news/2011/December/07.12.2011/bhopal_gas_victims_on_police.htm                                                                                             
Pioneer: http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/bhopal/25987-gas-victim-organisations-blame-police-admin-for-violence-on-anniversary-day.html                                    
Ummid: http://www.ummid.com/news/2011/December/07.12.2011/bhopal_gas_victims_on_police.htm                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                                     
- PTI reported separately on state Congress party members president Kantilal Burhia and MP Preme Chand Guddu making statements about the police response to the rail roko. Burhia    
"strongly condemned" the police force, while Guddu sent a memo to the MP governor demanding a "high level inquiry into the police action."  The memo explained the local law         
enforcement were forewarned of the protest and did not take precautionary measures.                                                                                                  
http://zeenews.india.com/news/madhya-pradesh/bhuria-condemns-police-action-on-gas-victims_745594.html                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
CNN-IBN reported the Madhya Pradesh Human Rights Commission criticized the MP government for the "police brutality on protesting Bhopal gas victims" and asked to be given a         
detailed report on the violence.                                                                                                                                                     
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/hrc-pulls-up-mp-govt-for-lathicharge-on-gas-victims/209115-3.html                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/6 Pioneer: Jabbar - ICJB partly responsible for rail violence                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                     
The Pioneer reported Abdul Jabbar and the BGPMUS said the ICJB NGOs are partly responsible for Saturday's violence. He criticized the state government for not fulfilling projects   
and programs it promised to the gas victims.                                                                                                                                         
http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/bhopal/25751-organisations-divided-over-rail-roko-incident.html                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/9 ANI: Bhopal protest of police for rail roko violence calls for Chouhan to resign, threatens to 'ransack' his residence                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                                     
ANI reported a protest was held in Bhopal by gas victims "against police personnel" for the rail roko violence. However, the group demonstrating is not reported to be associated    
with any of the gas NGOs. The protest was "supported by" the Congress party, and the group called for CM Chouhan's resignation. A spokesman also "warned the state government of a   
similar backlash and threatened Chief Minister Chauhan with ransacking his house."                                                                                                   
http://www.newstrackindia.com/newsdetails/253966                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/8 ToI: Bhopal residents complain of police harassment on questioning over rail roko                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Times of India reported Bhopal residents of the Jehangirabad and Aishbagh locales are complaining of being harassed by police and questioned about the rail roko violence on Dec. 3. 
The Communist Party of India (Marxist) may hold a demonstration to protest the "alleged police excesses" on Dec. 3.                                                                  
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bhopal/Cops-harassing-us-for-Dec-3-protests/articleshow/11031304.cms                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/7 PTI: Abdul Jabbar wants special courts for gas victims, MP to submit 'correct' data to SC                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                                     
PTI reported BGPMUS convenor Abdul Jabbar again called for CM Chouhan to "take a clear stand on the death toll and injuries" data from the 1984 gas accident. Jabbar said Chouhan's  
letter to PM Singh is "not enough" and the state does not need any special dispensation to establish a special court to hear gas victims' cases.                                     
http://ibnlive.in.com/generalnewsfeed/news/come-clear-on-death-injury-figures-in-gas-tragedy-jabbar/922548.html                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/9 DNA: Chouhan calls for Rs 10 lakh in compensation for 10,000 more gas victims                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                                     
DNA reported CM Chouhan has asked the GoI to pay Rs 10 lakhs to the families of another 10,047 persons whose deaths were attributable to the 1984 gas accident.                      
http://daily.bhaskar.com/article/MP-BHO-bhopal-gas-tragedy-cm-asks-for-rs-10-lakh-each-for-the-victims-2626677.html                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/4 Express on Sunday: Chingari Trust                                                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Express on Sunday Whitehall editor Ted Jeory reported from Bhopal on the Chingari Trust and juxtaposing its services and needs to the money being spent by Dow on the Olympic        
stadium wrap. Jeory included quotes from both Rashida Bee and Champi Devi Shukla, who deemed Dow "'our enemy' because 'they should show some morality, clean the waste and take it   
back to America.'"                                                                                                                                                                   
He said the BMA and other campaigners are "glad of the renewed global attention brought by Lord Coe's decision to give Dow a clean bill of health," because the campaign against Dow 
had been "losing momentum."                                                                                                                                                          
This piece has content that is may have been sourced from an InterPress Service piece dated Friday, which is available on request.                                                   
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/287679/-Bhopal-tragedy-was-like-a-dance-of-death-                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/5 Pioneer: Chingari Trust awards                                                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Chingari Trust announced its annual Women Against Corporate Crime award, which went to "two courageous women of the Lok Samiti in Mehndiganj near Varanasii.e. Urmila Vishwakarma    
and Urmila Patel. They are recognized for their fight against a multinational goliath i.e. Coca Cola along with the local Pollution Control Board, Ground Water Authority and Uttar  
Pradesh State Government swinging between the local vote-bank and a huge MNCs persuasive power."                                                                                     
http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/bhopal/25731-chingari-award-for-women-against-corporate-crime-distributed.html                                                            
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/8 Common Dreams: PANNA announced results of People's Tribunal - "Big 6" agrichem firms "guilty" of human rights violations                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                     
PANNA issued a press release announcing Permanent People's Tribunal found the "Big 6" agrichemical companies "guilty" of human rights violations. PANNA co-director Kathryn Gilje    
described the event, and the press piece listed several of the individuals who testified and each ones' topic.                                                                       
http://www.commondreams.org/newswire/2011/12/07-17                                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                                     
The Hindu had published two items on the PAN Permanent People's Tribunal while it was in session on Bangalore. Dow's primary connection to the PPT is the Bhopal issue.              
http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/tp-karnataka/article2685948.ece                                                                                                     
- Endosulfan victims were the first to testify at the PPT.                                                                                                                           
http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/article2687912.ece                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/4 BhopalNow website: first posting promotes Sambhavna, Chingari facilities                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Photojournalist Jack Laurenson announced a new website he calls BhopalNow to  aid the campaigns for the gas victims. The exact purpose of the site was not clear, other than he said 
he could not let Bhopal be simply another article he produced.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/6  Laurenson posted the first item on BhopalNow.org. The post is a "comment piece" by him and Lorraine Close, describing the Sambhavna Clnic and the Chingari Therapy Centre, the 
activist perception of Bhopal and Dow, and encouraging readers to sign Close's change.org petition addressed to Lord Coe. Full text attached.                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/6 Force Change petition addressed to Liveris to "assume corporate responsibility" and clean up Bhopal                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                     
A new petition about Bhopal is addressed to Andrew Liveris and calls for him/Dow to "assume corporate responsibility for [and] clean up Bhopal, India's environment." The item is    
posted a site called Force Change and does not appear likely to attract attention. The poster is a UC-Berkeley graduate named Emmeline Sun. There is no clear connection to ICJB or  
AID activists, she has posted five petitions on topics ranging from affirmative action to "police brutality against 'occupy' protesters."                                            
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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Bhopali film: Invitations to screenings; review; interview with Verma and Carlson                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/5 An email update was sent about the Bhopali film, announcing its availability online, with half of proceeds supporting "Bhopal.org" (the BMA), and listing the three screenings  
from 12/3 to 12/10 in Boston and NYC.                                                                                                                                                
 - A fellow filmmaker, Chris Portal, posted a review of the film on his blog. He attended the MIT screening on 12/2 and recommended the film. He noted IndiePix said it would have a 
theatrical release that has not happened yet.                                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/9 Film blog MoviePass posted interviews with ICJB activist Sanjay Verma and Bhopali film maker Max Carlson prior to the documentary screening at the IndieScreen Theatre in       
Brooklyn on Thursday evening.                                                                                                                                                        
 - Verma described his gradual involvement with the activist campaign, stepping in where his brother Sunil had left off in the campaign, and encouraged viewers to "tell other       
people about Bhopal."                                                                                                                                                                
 - Carlson referred to Verma as a "big inspiration" in producing the documentary.                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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Ted Jeory blog: Bhopal visit during anniversary events; Newham mayor supports anti-Dow campaign                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Express on Sunday Whitehall editor Ted Jeory updated his blog with two posts from his weekend in Bhopal.                                                                             
 - The first chronicles his personal experiences there, including time with UK MP Navin Shah,  Sarangi and Dhingra, and Abdul Jabbar. He also visited the Chingari Rehabilitation    
Center and attended the protests on Friday and Saturday. Multiple photos adorn the post.                                                                                             
He wrote that Coe should visit Bhopal "and try to understand the anger first hand," and labeled Dow, Coe, Rogge and Hughes all "morally deficient" for their stance on the Bhopal    
issue.                                                                                                                                                                               
One item of interest - he said Sarangi had spent a large part of the weekend disguised "to avoid the police."                                                                        
 - The second post is mainly his article from Sunday's Express about the work of the Chingari Trust.                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/8 Ted Jeory's blog reposted Rahman's own blog post stating his position against Dow's sponsorship and the text of his letter to Lord Coe. Jeory and Rahman called for several     
other politicians to sign on to the letter, one of whom has done so. Those invited to sign were Josh Peck (Labour), Peter Golds (Conservative), Stephanie Eaton (Lib Dem - signed),  
and Fozol Miah (Respect).                                                                                                                                                            
Rahman wrote that he had the Dow issue on his council meeting agenda but ran out of time to address it.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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BMA website updates: Bhopali interview; Environmentalist article; Anniversary event reports                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                                     
The BMA website has several updates:                                                                                                                                                 
 - The Carlson section of the MoviePass blog post reported above                                                                                                                     
 - The full text of Environmentalist journal article "Bhopal's Never Ending Disaster" by Richard Ansell and Andrew Tinsley. The piece was published in October but not available in  
full at that time. The lengthy article reviews Bhopal's "first' and "second" disasters, and the legal proceedings. The journal report ends with suggesting an "alternative approach" 
for site remediation "independent of the court actions": A full site investigation backed by the EU consisting of double-blind sampling by labs in India and Europe, desk studies by 
EU consultancies and "eventual site clean-up work." An addendum has a personal report by Tinsley from an April 2011 visit to Bhopal and the former UCIL factory site. Full text      
available on request.                                                                                                                                                                
 - A report from "Nagendra in Sambhavna" on the 12/2-3 anniversary events in Bhopal. The post includes two local press clippings with photos from the Friday rally.                  
 - An updated post on the Scottish Friends of Bhopal memorial event and plaque dedication at Greyfriars Kirk.                                                                        
 - An anniversary poem by BMA member Jade De Vries.                                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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Blogs: Current.com; Toxics Watch; Hadida; sports blogs; UK Progressive; New Internationalist                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Current.com, the same venue that hosts Granholm's new TV program, has a post from "JanforGore," titled "Drop Dow as a partner for London 2012 olympic games." It has a link to       
Lorraine Close's change.org petition, a brief explanation of the activist rationale and three comments, also posted by JanforGore, with further media items on the Bhopal issue.     
JanforGore is Janet Moore, a water issues activist who has posted several times on Current.com posts Granholm's program, usually mentioning dioxin.                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                     
India's Toxics Watch Alliance blogger Gopal Krishna has added nine posts of Bhopal-related items since Friday, including:                                                            
 - The 12/6 Hindu article he retitled "Dowlympics"                                                                                                                                   
 - A letter he wrote to the Governor of Madhya Pradesh calling for a Truth Commission about the rail roko violence and use of the "correct" death and injury figures for the         
curative petition                                                                                                                                                                    
- India's Sports Ministry instructions to IOA on communicating the "concern" over Dow's sponsorship                                                                                  
- Protest on "Bhopal Day" against the Jaitapur Nuclear Project                                                                                                                       
- A theory that the release of Warren Anderson in 1984 and Adil Shahryar from US custody in 1985 were linked                                                                         
- Times of India article reporting on UCC Supreme Court filing regarding compensation already paid and Dow not being subject to SC jurisdiction                                      
- The rail roko violence                                                                                                                                                             
- A panel discussion in Pune on the Bhopal accident anniversary, about India's nuclear safety regulation and civil liability legislation                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/7 Sports blog Insidethegames posted a column by Independent on Sunday reporter Alan Hubbard, who criticized the increase in cost for the London Games opening ceremony. In        
exploring alternative uses for -L-40 million, he suggested using "some of it to do the decent thing and pay for the  controversial 'wrap' shroud for the stadium and hand Dow        
Chemical back their -L-7 million ($11 million/?8 million), thus appeasing those both here and in India angered by what is considered an insult to the victims of the Bhopal          
disaster."                                                                                                                                                                           
http://www.insidethegames.biz/blogs/15107                                                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/7 Insidethegames posted a report by Duncan Mackay about Rogge's reply to the IOA and statement in support of Dow's partnership.                                                   
http://www.insidethegames.biz/olympics/summer-olympics/2012/sponsors/15103-rogge-backs-dow-chemical-over-olympic-sponsorship                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/8 A blog titled "UK Progressive" posted an article criticizing Dow and the Olympic sponsorship as incongruent in terms of Dow's history. Author Theodora Filis also listed        
several questions pertaining to the Indian curative petitions regarding the criminal charges, environmental contamination and remediation, and Dow's "lack of sustainable efforts in 
India, and the rest of the world."                                                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/9 UK alternative media New Internationalist has a blog post by an Alan Hughes promoting the campaign against Dow's Olympic sponsorship. The piece begins with a description of    
the 1984 accident, the compensation discrepancies, MP CM Chouhan's recent support of the gas NGOs demands, and the IOA/IOC/LOCOG statements regarding the Games, Dow's sponsorship   
and discussion of an Indian boycott.                                                                                                                                                 
Hughes wrote of Dow: "this is not the first time Dow Chemicals has been accused of playing dirty games," referring to napalm production and "leaking poisonous plutonium in the US,  
for which they were sued," and "multiple sites in the US" he said are "harmful and.dangerous owing to [Dow's] irresponsible activities."                                             
The recent Bhopal anniversary events in India were described as "successful."                                                                                                        
Readers are asked to sign Lorraine Close's change.org petition. Full text available on request.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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Message boards: Nayaran - ICJB action calls during rail violence; Games Monitor posts                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/5 ICJB activist Shweta Nayaran emailed to several related activist distribution lists a call for action to contact the MP Chief Minister's office with two demands:               
 - Set up of a "Truth Commission with participation of survivor's organizations" to investigate the violence at Saturday's rail roko.                                                
 - Immediate release of "all detainees and suspension of all legal action" pending a report from the above-mentioned commission.                                                     
Nayaran's email alleges the violence was "triggered by the police," photos show police "pelting stones," and the police are targeting Muslim youth from gas-affecte families as a    
means of "settling religious scores." Some of the youth are reported to have been stripped and "tortured in at least two police stations in Bhopal."                                 
The email also reported NGO leader Balkrishna Namdeo "has been charged with murderous assault punishable by ten years of rigorous imprisonment."                                     
Full text available on request.                                                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                     
The London Games Monitor message board posted multiple media items on the Dow sponsorship topic through the week. A listing of the posts is available on request.                    
                                                                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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Social media: Farah Edwards driving BMA social media                                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Farah Edwards Khan appears to be a main driver of the BMA social media campaign, as she posted about 160 tweets in the first four days of December. The topics vary from requesting  
others to sign Lorraine Close's petition, to posting  links to media items to updates on the rail roko and information/conversation tweets with others. Recipients of interest       
include Lorraine Close and Indra Sinha.                                                                                                                                              
One tweet indicated Express on Sunday journalist Ted Jeory was in Bhopal for the anniversary.                                                                                        
Full text of the twitter list is available on request.                                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Social media activity on the Bhopal topics peaked on the weekend, with over 150 tweets on Sunday alone. That is not viral, but definitely indicative of an extended conversation.    
Full text available on request.                                                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                     
BMA's Twitter and Facebook feeds have consisted mainly on media links, recommendations for tweet recipients to sign Close's petition, and links to the Amnesty International UK and  
USA statements/action on the Dow sponsorship.                                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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    <date>2011-12-10 00:55:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/396510_dow-confidential-bhopal-monitoring-report-friday-december-09.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mongoven@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/35/35407_Activist_info_12-03-11_AI_USA_to_USOC.pdf</path><size>101955</size><md5></md5><sha1>1414c4980c9f8a6e0465c5829349324b1699ae9b</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/35/35408_Blog_12-05-11_AI_USA_action_call.pdf</path><size>99847</size><md5></md5><sha1>7002b8f1d48c7c49b58584880472afeb766d64d4</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/35/35411_Activist_info_12-05-11_B_Gardiner_site.pdf</path><size>202610</size><md5></md5><sha1>0b07b840d67e2176dbb4803d215a3998ec40757b</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>396520</id>
    <title>Re: STAFF - ICJB coordinators/board
</title>
    <description>   Yeah the whole thing is weird.  Ortman was first working out of PANNA's
   office (and on PANNA's staff list) but apparently ICJB is still under
   PANNA's wing but PANNA no longer lists Ortman on staff.  If you want to
   send a donation to ICJB you still send it to PANNA c/o Ortman, though.

   On 12/23/2010 1:56 PM, Joseph de Feo wrote:

     Ortman has been the coordinator for years.  Rosenfeld is newer to the
     post -- probably this year.  Anyway, seems odd that ICJB needs two.

     On 12/23/2010 1:49 PM, Kathleen Morson wrote:

       Shana Ortman and Claire Rosenfeld are the US coordinators for ICJB.

       http://www.studentsforbhopal.org/node/57
       Advisory Board
       The Students for Bhopal Advisory Board is the national leadership body
       for SfB, representing the North American grassroots supporters of the
       International Campaign for Justice in Bhopal. Composed of
       approximately 7 volunteer members as well as the US staff member of
       ICJB, the Advisory Board coordinates the actions, projects, and
       initiatives undertaken by ICJB/SfB in North America.

       Who is on the Advisory Board?
       Shana Blustein Ortman
       U.S. Coordinator, International Campaign for Justice in Bhopal; SfB
       Advisory Board Member
       Shana has worked on social and environmental justice for the past 10
       years, and she is extremely moved and inspired by the struggle for
       Justice in Bhopal.  Before becoming the U.S. Coordinator for ICJB in
       April 2008, she spent nearly four years at ForestEthics, where she was
       the Lead Organizer on the Paper Campaign.  Her work focused on
       leadership development and creating grassroots organizing for a
       campaign that is transforming the catalog industry and protecting
       Endangered Forests. Most notably, in 2006, they won the Victoria's
       Dirty Secret campaign, a three year campaign that included over 750
       grassroots actions across North America.  Shana got her B.A. in
       Humanities, with a focus on Children's Literature and Social Change
       from New College of California in 2005.  She also spent two years
       studying Anthropology at Grinnell College, where she was very involved
       with student activism for environmental justice and human rights.   

       Claire Rosenfeld
       U.S. Coordinator, International Campaign for Justice in Bhopal; SfB
       Advisory Board Member

       Claire got involved with ICJB when she spent a week in July/2008 at
       the Sambhavna Trust Clinic in Bhopal.  She interned over summer with
       Shana at ICJB in San Francisco and organized the hugely successful
       curry cook-off fundraiser. Claire earned her B.A. in Cultural Studies
       and Foreign Languages (Spanish, Hindi) at the Evergreen State College
       in Olympia, WA. As part of the advisory board, she hopes to
       collaborate with groups committed to resolving the ongoing tragedy and
       provide her own insight about the direction of the campaign in North
       America. She brings her strong belief that corporate profit should
       never come at the price of human lives.

       Tony Millard
       SfB Advisory Board Member
       Tony graduated from the Northwestern University Medill School of
       Journalism in 2006, and he is currently working as a producer, writer
       and editor for an XM satellite medical radio station called ReachMD.
       In his first year on the AB, he helped to coordinate our extensive
       media campaign throughout the entire 2008 Padyatra, which included
       frequent press releases and outreach to news and information outlets
       across a variety of mediums throughout the United States.

       Having volunteered at the Sambhavna Clinic in Bhopal for most of a
       year spanning parts of 2006 and 2007, he hasa firm, first-hand
       perspective of the situation on the ground in Bhopal. From Sambhavna
       to the dilapidated factory, to Oriya Basti and Hamidia Hospital, to
       the oft-protested home of the chief minister of Madhya Pradesh in
       Shamla Hills, his knowledge of Bhopal is a benefit to our strategizing
       and planning actions here in the United States. This applies
       particularly from the standpoint of communicating to others the extent
       of the devastation across Bhopal, but more importantly, the spirit of
       the Bhopalis who continue to fight for Justice.

       Diana Katgara
       SfB Advisory Board Member
       Diana had the chance to spend some time in Bhopal and get to know a
       number of people there. These people who are strong, brillliant,
       loving, creative, inspirational, funny, musical, articulate,
       insightful, caring, full of hope and who will never ever give up
       fighting for justice for themselves and fighting to ensure that what
       has happened to Bhopalis doesn't happen to others have become an
       important part of her life. **The grave injustices that have happened
       and continue to happen in Bhopal are unacceptable. From December 3rd,
       1984 onwards Bhopalies have witnessed the horrors of losing their
       loved ones and continue to be lied to and cheated out of effective
       health care, clean water, safety against deadly poisons, the ability
       to earn, the right not to have to feed babies contaminated breast
       milk, just to name a few things. And yet, they continue to have hope
       and love and show care to eachother and those of us who ask if we can
       stand alongside them. They continue to have hope and trust that the
       world will not let this injustice continue.**Over the last year and a
       half she hasseen the creative and meaningful ways that the SfB has
       supported the Bhopal Campaign in the US and she thinks it would be
       great to bring some of that over to Canada.

       Yogesh Simmhan
       SfB Advisory Board Member
       Yogesh brings his passion for justice to the Advisory Board--he hopes
       to improve the lives of Bhopalis, and fight corporate greed and
       government apathy. Co-founder of AID at the Indiana University,
       Bloomington, Yogesh organized all Bhopal-related events at his
       university from 2003-2007 including vigils, protests, panel
       discussions with Ryan Bodyani and Rajan Sharma, and a Bhopal photo
       exhibit. Additionally, he has worked with Amnesty International in
       picketing a talk by Dow CEO Andrew Liveris in Indianapolis.   In 2006
       he helped host the Students for Bhopal conference in Bloomington.
       Yogesh has experience in letter writing, media management, and event
       organizing. He sees the approaching 25th anniversary of the gas
       tragedy as an important opportunity: "The looming 25th  anniversary is
       a crucial juncture for our campaign and SfB needs all the support
       possible to mobilize across the US. This is the time for everyone
       associated with the campaign to stand up and be counted, and I'm
       answering this call."

       Ellen Shifrin
       SFB Advisory Board Member
       A former professor and administer, Ellen has strong communication and
       organizational skills.   Her involvement with the campaign for justice
       in Bhopal began in 2008, but she was involved with Amnesty
       International for many years.   She has been invited to table at the
       UN Association of Canada, Toronto event on Water and the AI
       Business&amp;Human Rights conference, The Case for Water as a Human
       Right.   Having traveled to the subcontinent eight times, Ellen is
       looking forward to combining her deep-rooted passions for human rights
       and India.
       Why do you believe in justice for Bhopal?
       "Bhopal serves not only as a situation in itself, but also as a model
       for people in other places fighting the same type of violations. There
       are so many levels on which to work for justice in Bhopal - human and
       environmental rights, politics, economics, and the human spirit. So
       because Bhopal will always be with us in one way or another, because
       the fight of the gas and water-affected people is wholly non-violent,
       because the spirit of the survivors is so strong--all these are
       reasons why I want to be part of the Advisory Board, why I want to be
       more involved, and why I feel it's such an important cause to be
       whole-heartedly committed to."

        

        

        

       Leonid Chindelevitch
       SFB Advisory Board Member

       After being involved with the Bhopal campaign for 3 years at the local
       level and gained experience in activities ranging from making banners
       and folding my body in the shape of various letters to preparing
       budget requests and coordinating the chapter's activities, Leonid has
       taken the next step of joining the campaign's Advisory Board. He
       expects to make significant contribution to SfB by organizing
       fundraising events, recruiting new members to the campaign and
       contacting the media. In addition, he hopes to bring new insights into
       campaign strategies on the 25th anniversary of the Bhopal disaster.

        

       Interested in joining the Advisory Board?
       In the fall there are Advisory Board nominations for positions that
       last for one year.  Occasionally there are openings during other parts
       of the year.  Email shana@panna.org to learn more.

        

        

       Past Members of the Advisory Board
       Pragya Bhagat (2007-09)

       Association for India's Development, Austin

       Aqueue Freechild (2004-2009)

       US Strategy Coordinator, ICJB

       Daniel Yeow (2007-08)

       Amnesty International, Columbia University

       Raghav Kaushik (2006-2007)

       Ryan Bodyani (2004-2007)

       Student Coordinator, ICJB
</description>
    <date>2010-12-23 20:01:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/396520_re-staff-icjb-coordinators-board-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>morson@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mongoven@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>defeo@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>pubpolblog.post@blogger.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>396636</id>
    <title>Bhopal update 12-08-11 media
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   Reuters reported India's first athlete to qualify for the London Olympics,
   marksman Gagan Narang, said Dow's Olympics sponsorship is an opportunity
   for the company to gain "redemption" and should be allowed. He agreed with
   IOC president Rogge that a boycott would only hurt the Indian athletes,
   and stated the athletes are to go to the Games as ambassadors for their
   country.

   Pickups are not extensive, mainly Reuters and Yahoo! outlets - UK &amp;
   Ireland, Africa, Singapore, SBS, World News Australia, Eurosport, Yahoo!
   Sports, and Yahoo! Xtra blogs.

   http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/08/olympics-india-boycott-idUSL3E7N83LW20111208

   SportzPower reported the IOA plans to meet on Friday to discuss "all the
   issues" of Dow's Olympic sponsorship, and Rogge's recommendation to that
   body.

   This is the only media to confirm the Dec. 9 meeting reported by PTI
   earlier this week. SportzPower said the IOA "has gone on a back foot" as
   its secretary general Raja Randhir Singh is in Switzerland meeting with
   the IOC, and acting president V K Malhotra "remaining silent," so vice
   president Tarlochan Singh has apparently taken the lead on the "crisis."
   The article described the week's developments from Indian agencies and the
   IOC, and ended with "Last learnt, the IOA will stick to its position on
   Indian participating in London Games, but the athletes in the committee,
   many of whom are from Bhopal, will not accept that."

   http://www.sportzpower.com/?q=content/ioa-pushing-participating-london-games-athletes-commoners-oppose

   PTI reported Indian tennis player Sania Mirza said she would follow the
   government's instructions on the issue of a boycott: "As athletes we will
   go with what the country decides." Picked up by MSN India, Pioneer,
   Siaset, Rediff, Express India, Sify, and I4U, a Delaware-based media
   outlet.

   http://sports.in.msn.com/tennis/article.aspx?cp-documentid=5648177

   Bhopal Central Chronicle reported on the "other" change.org petition that
   was addressed to the IOA and intended for athletes to sign. The item has
   gathered 900 signatures of 1,000 targeted. The Chronicle reporter claimed
   the petition surpassing 750 signatures made it a significant pressure on
   the IOA going into the Dec. 15 meeting.

   http://www.centralchronicle.com/ioa-faces-new-pressure-to-boycott-dow-olympic-2012.html

   UK local media North West Times published a lengthy letter to the editor
   criticizing Lord Coe for the Dow sponsorship and claiming it would result
   in "big protests and disrupt the Games," with the possibility of "bringing
   Wembley and other venues to a standstill." The letter encouraged readers
   to email the Culture, Media and Sport commission "asking for the decision
   to be reversed," and to sign Lorraine Close's change.org petition. No name
   was provided, full text is available on request.

   Indian Express reported on Rachna Dhingra stating the ICJB will do
   everything it can to hold a "Bhopal Olympics" with children from Bhopal,
   Vietnam, Nicaragua "and other countries."

   http://www.indianexpress.com/news/Bhopal-may-defy-IOC-with-own--Olympics-/885241/

    

   Sri Lanka  Guardian posted a commentary about Dow risking its reputation
   and good will over the Olympics sponsorship. This included a description
   of DAS India being blacklisted.

   http://www.srilankaguardian.org/2011/12/dow-chemical-now-facing-image-issues-in.html

   Times of India reported Bhopal residents of the Jehangirabad and Aishbagh
   locales are complaining of being harassed by police and questioned about
   the rail roko violence on Dec. 3. The Communist Party of India (Marxist)
   may hold a demonstration to protest the "alleged police excesses" on Dec.
   3.

   http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bhopal/Cops-harassing-us-for-Dec-3-protests/articleshow/11031304.cms

   Times of India also reported on the MP Human Rights Commission calling for
   an explanation from the Bhopal district collector and the senior police
   superintendant about Saturday's violence.  A dozen questions posed by the
   HRC regarding details of the incident were included in the article.

   http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2011-12-07/indore/30486428_1_rail-roko-gas-shells-police-force

   PANNA issued a press release announcing Permanent People's Tribunal found
   the "Big 6" agrichemical companies "guilty" of human rights violations.
   PANNA co-director Kathryn Gilje described the event, and the press piece
   listed several of the individuals who testified and each ones' topic.

   http://www.commondreams.org/newswire/2011/12/07-17

    The print editions had six instances of the PTI story announcing the
   IOA's intent to discuss Dow's Olympic sponsorship at the next IOA
   meeting.  All were in the Sports sections:

   Hindustan Times - New Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Chandigarh, all on p 15
   or 16, all located below the fold on the right hand side

   Times of India's Mumbai edition had "snapshot" version of the article on p
   25 in the top right corner

   Asian Age's New Delhi edition had the "brief" version in the top left
   corner.

   Times of India's Mumbai edition also included the two point-counterpoint
   editorials on the sponsorship that were reported on Wednesday.

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-12-08 18:39:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/396636_bhopal-update-12-08-11-media-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>397199</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 02-15-11
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   The petition by Max Carlson now has 276 signatures.

   Becky Moss posted on the BMA website the Focus For Humanity press release
   from 2/11 announcing Alex Massi's NGO Assignment Fellowship to fund his
   partnership with BMA.

   On Twitter:

   -       Becky Moss has posted four tweets this month. The first two were
   on the protests in Egypt, the last two are links to media on Bhopal item:
   HT on the Samar Jodha photo exhibit and India Today on the ICJB press
   release about the BHMRC drug trials

   -       The Yes Men tweeted about the US Chamber of Commerce "plotting
   forged emails, documents to trick (AND smear) opponents. [see media item
   below]

   -       MIC activist Nancy Swan tweeted three media links on the suit
   against Bayer CropScience on the MIC restart

   In the media:

   -       Indian Express reported former CBI official BR Lall wrote in his
   book "Free the CBI - Power Games in Bhopal and Other Cases" that Law
   Minister V Moily "blindly" accused and "punished" people who "said
   something against him or...against his master." The article ended with the
   Bhopal content previously reported on the book, that the GoI's settlement
   with Union Carbide was a "sellout."

   http://www.indianexpress.com/news/cbi-officer-who-probed-bhopal-gas-leak-hits-back-at-moily/750131/

   -       Associated Press reported an Ecuadorean court found Chevron guilty
   of environmental damage and imposed an $8.6 billion fine. The Bhopal gas
   leak and the BP oil spill are cited as other "major environmental damage
   payments." As usual with AP items, there have been more than 300 pickups.

   http://news.findlaw.com/ap_stories/f/1310/02-14-2011/20110214172000_08.html

   -       Detroit News published an article on Andrew Liveris' access to the
   Obama White House and "reaping benefits" from the relationship: i.e. the
   Dow Kokkam battery business. The activists will likely take exception to
   the report; expect at the least derisive posts on social media feeds.

   http://www.detnews.com/article/20110215/BIZ/102150332/1001

   Institute, WV

   -       Charleston Examiner reported a clarification of Judge Goodwin's
   injunction against Bayer producing MIC at the Institute facility. The
   company can work on "reconfiguring" the MIC plant, but not actually
   produce the chemical.

   http://www.examiner.com/environmental-news-in-charleston/federal-judge-explains-scope-of-restraining-order-on-bayer-s-production-of-mic

   -       Charleston Gazette reported on Bayer's work on the MIC plant and
   related training procedures. Both of these pieces referred to Bhopal in
   the context of the lawsuit against Bayer.

   http://wvgazettemail.com/News/201102141454

   -       Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) deemed the 1984 Bhopal
   gas tragedy as the "Worst industrial accident" in a list of the "worst
   eco-catastrophes of all time." Greenpeace Australia Pacific campaigner
   Steve Campbell said Bhopal "is a stark reminder that close scrutiny of
   corporations is critical..." The Bhopal entry said UCC "got away with
   paying just $470 million" in compensation.

   http://www.abc.net.au/environment/articles/2011/02/15/3135546.htm

   -       Left online media Global Post reported on India whistleblowers
   being killed who have used documents obtained via the Right To Information
   (RTI) act to reveal corruption in the country. A 2010 photo with the
   article shows Bhopal campaigners with RTI requests about the Nuclear
   Liability Bill.

   http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/india/110214/right-to-information-law-corruption

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-02-15 17:57:22</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/397199_bhopal-update-02-15-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>397224</id>
    <title>Re: MX1
</title>
    <description>   Would like to meet, let me look at my schedule. We should keep him away
   from S4 for source protection.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Wed, 30 Jun 2010 15:57:53 -0500
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;; Alex Posey&lt;alex.posey@stratfor.com&gt;;
   Ben West&lt;ben.west@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: MX1
   MX1 is coming to town on Friday. Will be available at noon for lunch and
   has indicated that he would want to meet with anyone that wants to talk to
   him.

   Just tell me if you are down. Something near the office -- Gumbos -- would
   probably work.

   I would not be attending.

   --

   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

   Marko Papic

   Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

   STRATFOR

   700 Lavaca Street - 900

   Austin, Texas

   78701 USA

   P: + 1-512-744-4094

   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-06-30 23:54:32</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-03 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/397224_re-mx1-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ben.west@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alex.posey@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>397349</id>
    <title>Re: Attack cycle
</title>
    <description>   Tearline material perhaps

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: brian.genchur@stratfor.com
   Date: Wed, 7 Apr 2010 07:49:20 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Grant Perry&lt;grant.perry@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Attack cycle
   We could do a 2 minute video just looking at the attack cycle.
   Could be good as a standard video to embed or link to when breaking news
   involving the cycle occurs.
      
   Brian Genchur
   Multimedia
   Stratfor
   On Apr 7, 2010, at 7:43, "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@abraxasapps.com&gt;
     Date: Wed, 7 Apr 2010 08:38:09 -0400
     To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Attack cycle

     Fred,

      

     Enjoyed the video. Spot-on with what we teach in our Surveillance
     Awareness Workshop. We actually use an Attack Cycle diagram similar to
     yours -- but broken down even further with emphasis on the three stages
     of surveillance that occur prior to a typical attack. Our clients are
     getting the message, and their security personnel understand that they
     can detect these indicators and have a hand in thwarting the attack
     before it ever happens. (A very empowering feeling for many of them).
     And, based on the number of suspicious activities detected by TrapWire
     users over the past two years (many significant enough to be turned over
     to law enforcement and JTTF for further investigation), the approach we
     and you are advocating really works. Hope you get a chance to see the
     system in action some time out in Vegas. They are the poster child for
     how to use the system correctly.

      

     Fight the good fight,

     Mike

      

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     NOTICE: This email message and all attachments transmitted with it are
     intended solely for the use of the addressees and may contain legally
     privileged, protected or confidential information. If you have received
     this message in error, please notify the sender immediately by email
     reply and please delete this message from your computer and destroy any
     copies.
</description>
    <date>2010-04-07 14:55:10</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/397349_re-attack-cycle-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>brian.genchur@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>grant.perry@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>397386</id>
    <title>Question
</title>
    <description>Hello Blake,

Is TrapWire still on track?

Thanks,

Fred
</description>
    <date>2010-07-06 02:02:27</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/397386_question-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Blake.Sawyer@txdps.state.tx.us</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>397418</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - BRAZIL - Rio favela crackdowns
</title>
    <description>   Will elaborate on a lot of this later, but here are just some initial
   thoughts on what I've observed here so far.  Have some *awesome* pics,
   video and audio recordings from this favela trip that we'll be able to use
   for a report.
   Yesterday, I visited the favela, Santa Marta, with 3 of my local contacts.
   Santa Marta was the first Rio favela to have been pacified under the UPP
   strategy (where the army and police go in first, drive out the drug
   traffickers and the police occupy the favela for the long-term while
   promoting social, economic development, providing services, etc.)
   You seriously cannot help but be impressed by this model.  I not only had
   my own reaction to what we saw, but also saw the reactions of the three
   Cariocas (from Rio) I was with. They had never thought it would be
   possible to enter a favela like this. The Rio government is actively
   trying to get more locals to come and see the favela for themselves and
   take a tour. Literally, they have a tourist - style kiosk at the bottom of
   the favela hill with a glossy guide in Portuguese and English of the
   favela with a map pointing out all the main areas.  They have a cable car
   that takes you to the top of the hill as well.  It is completely bizarre.
   We went up to the top of the hill where the UPP police command is located
   (strategically, you can see why the first step of the favela pacification
   campaigns is to establish the command at the top of the hill. From the top
   of the command, a bright yellow church in the favela is in clear line of
   sight. The church was the primary watch point for the drug traffickers. In
   going through the maze of the favela, you can see how this is tactical
   nightmare for anyone on the other side of the guerrilla campaign. So many
   chokepoints, easy jumping access, blind spots, etc. 
   UPP pacification started 4 years ago in this favela, but there were still
   big shootouts up to a year ago. The owner of the apartment i am staying at
   was just telling me how her nieces go to a school nearby (many of the
   nicest places in Rio have a perfect view of this favela next door) and how
   the school had to be evacuated, a perimeter set up, etc. when the
   shootouts were still happening a year ago. What I saw yesterday was
   complete tranquility in this favela. We went up to the top of the UPP
   command and started chatting with the chief of police there and his
   assistant. They, like pretty much all Brazilians I've met, had no issues
   in chatting, having a beer with us, showing us the entire police command
   and answering whatever questions we had. It was extremely laid back (have
   recordings of those conversations that I'll transcribe later.)
   He basically described how previous attempts at pacification didn't work,
   no one had trust in the police that they would stay, police weren't
   trained in dealing with the population, social development, etc. The
   police would leave an escape route through the back for the traffickers to
   escape and got paid in the end. Police militias rapidly developed,
   corruption grew, it was a mess. There was no comprehensive strategy. The
   police that came in used a lot of violence, they were hated by the favela
   dwellers and then once the army left, the drug traffickers just came back
   in. Under the UPP campaign (the one being followed now for all favelas,)
   they come in by force with the army, marines, special forces, helicopters,
   etc., drive out the drug traffickers and then establish a police command.
   The police conduct regular patrols, provide services, set up electricity,
   sewage, dish networks, employments, free tuition at local schools for the
   kids, etc.  You can see the effect. In walking through the police command,
   I saw all these pictures and chair rankings for violin and cello classes
   that were being held there. Kids all over the favela looked totally
   relaxed, completely unfazed by our presence and by me taking pictures of
   them, generally quite happy, playing soccer, painting walls, flying kites,
   etc. You still see a lot of crazy wiring around the favela, but also brand
   new light installations, electricity meters, HDTV satellite dishes, etc.
   All the dwellings in Santa Marta have their own number and address so
   they're integrated with the state. Kids in the favela get to go to school
   for free in some of the really nice schools in Rio, all part of the
   integration effort. 
   The policeman we talked to said the locals in Santa Marta play a 'symbolic
   tax' for the services, but he laughed and said they still complain.  Just
   as an example of the trust i could see between the police and the locals
   there, when we climbed to the top of the favela around this insanely
   bullet-ridden wall, I saw the chief of the police command at the top
   helping a kid fly a kite. There's pretty much complete integration, very
   laid back feeling throughout.
   Ironically, I felt safer in this favela than I have anywhere else in Rio,
   including the richest parts, where petty theft is rampant
   the police commander explained how their biggest problem moving forward is
   training and resources. To give an idea of scale, Rocinha (where most of
   the most wanted drug traffickers are and/or have fled) is seven times the
   size of Santa Marta. They acknowledge they don't have nearly enough police
   recruits to go in an occupy like they've done here (in Santa Marta, the
   police command is staying for a minimum of 25 years - it's an occupation.)
   The police we talked to all think the head of CV (Red Command is in
   Rocinha.) I've been asking around a lot to see what the next favela target
   will be for the police... the two military generals I met with this
   morning (more insight on that meeting later) are saying Rocinha and the
   main favelas in the west part of Rio, where most of the construction for
   the WC and Olympics is taking place (there's more land there for
   development.)  They don't want to announce the next target of course,
   since that would deny them whatever strategic surprise they can retain.
   Salaries are the biggest issue, according to the UPP commander.   The
   state needs to raise the pay to motivate more police recruits to do this
   work. I asked him what the pay of the kite watcher boy was (the boys who
   would fly a certain color kite to alert the drug traffickers when the
   police were coming) versus the patrol soldiers. The kite watcher made -
   50-1000 Rs per month. Pay of patrol officer, about 1,500-2000 Rs per
   month 
   CV (Red Command) lost their command hq with the pacification of Santa
   Marta. You can still see remnants of violence everywhere - giant bullet
   holes, faded CV graffiti, stories from the locals there. We had a beer at
   a small bar midway down the favela overlooking all of Rio. He was telling
   us how much better things are now.. before the before the drug dealers
   would come force him to make food for them without paying, and there was
   nothing he could do to resist or force payment. All the kids hang out
   there to watch the new flat screen tv he has set up when the electricity
   goes out.
   As far as the supply chain goes, most of the marijuana comes from the
   northeast, cocaine and marijuana from colombia, bolivia, paraguay. Brazil
   primarily is dealing iwth sales, production is on an extremely limited
   scale. Everyone acknowledges the market isn't going away.
   I am following up this visit with visits to unpacified favelas as well,
   both in Rio and Sao Paulo. I won't be able to get the pictures and videos
   i want from those trips for security reasons, but I do want to get that
   perspective to compare the two. This UPP project is extremely important
   for the government's social development needs. They need to show that they
   control large swathes of urban territory that were previously conceded to
   the drug traffickers (in the 1980s you had situations where the governor
   in Rio prevented the police from even entering the favela.)   The Brig-Gen
   i was speaking to this morning was saying how they need to keep the
   momentum going. Brazilians are seeing that the model is working and they
   have to follow through. The biggest problem is still time and resource
   constraints. Resources, because they simply don't have enough police, much
   less well-trained police, to go into the more massive favelas and occupy
   them. Time, because with the Olympics and WC coming up, the last thing
   Brazil wants is the world watching shootouts with drug traffickers on TV
   in Rio.  I'm not sure how they're going to do it, and i'm not sure they
   know either. My impression is that they are going to keep going ahead with
   this for this year at least -- with Rocinha favela being a major target.
   My question then is what are teh drug trafficking groups going to do?
   They're already aligning with each other in the face of a common enemy
   (the state and the UPP campaign.)  The most effective way to hit back at
   the state and get them to back off is to threaten civilian targets that
   would tarnish brazil's image when it's in the global spotlight. The
   general i spoke to said a lot of officials in the govt don't like to
   acknowledge this threat, but it is definitely there. At that point, I
   suspect they'd have to reach some sort of accommodation, even if it's a
   temporary one.  What we need to watching for is the Rocinha crackdown and
   expansion to the favelas in the western sector of Rio and the reaction of
   the drug groups.  
</description>
    <date>2011-01-03 22:52:52</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-26 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/397418_insight-brazil-rio-favela-crackdowns-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>397495</id>
    <title>Fwd: INSIGHT - GREECE - Monetary troubles rumor mill
</title>
    <description>   Per our discussion.  Going back to a previous ...
   Sent from my iPhone
   Begin forwarded message:

     From: "George Friedman" &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;
     Date: January 16, 2010 5:00:14 PM EST
     To: marko.papic@stratfor.com, "Analysts" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: INSIGHT - GREECE - Monetary troubles rumor mill
     Reply-To: friedman@att.blackberry.net, Analyst List
     &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;

     Understood. But I would like you and the others dealing with greece to
     explain the significance of greece's problems to the world or region. Is
     important that in selecting a subject to for attention we begin by
     defining the significance of ths subject. We spend a lot of time
     addressing issues whose importance needs definition.

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: marko.papic@stratfor.com
     Date: Sat, 16 Jan 2010 15:31:10 -0600 (CST)
     To: friedman@att.blackberry.net&lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;; Analyst
     List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Cc: Analysts&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: INSIGHT - GREECE - Monetary troubles rumor mill
     Its not really important for the region how or why Greece is in trouble.
     I wasjust replying to the insight I saw. 

     On Jan 16, 2010, at 3:09 PM, "George Friedman"
     &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt; wrote:

       Why is this of interest to us?

       Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: marko.papic@stratfor.com
       Date: Sat, 16 Jan 2010 14:58:43 -0600 (CST)
       To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
       Cc: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
       Subject: Re: INSIGHT - GREECE - Monetary troubles rumor mill
       The second point is 100% correct. 

       On Jan 16, 2010, at 1:53 PM, Robert Reinfrank
       &lt;robert.reinfrank@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

         I had read rumors about this as well. I know it's just a rumor, and
         that we're talking about Greece statistics, but it seems consistent
         with the massive upward revisions of their budget deficit,  from 6
         to close to 13 percent. 

         **************************
         Robert Reinfrank
         STRATFOR
         Austin, Texas
         W: +1 512 744-4110
         C: +1 310 614-1156
         On Jan 16, 2010, at 12:37 PM, Laura Jack &lt;laura.jack@stratfor.com&gt;
         wrote:

           CODE: GR101
           PUBLICATION: background
           ATTRIBUTION: Greek sources in the EU
           SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Greek attorney in Brussels who ran for
           Parliament in Athens with PASOK
           SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
           ITEM CREDIBILITY: 4 (rumor and hearsay)
           SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:  Analysts
           HANDLER: Laura

           This is all rumor mill in Brussels, but comes from a Greek source
           who has good government contacts:

           1 - Allegedly, the current Greek government purposefully
           exacerbated the deficit problem in 2009 (with the goals of pinning
           all economic problems on the previous administration and also
           possibly to get more help from international bodies) by paying
           some accounts due early. For instance, payments that would have
           been okay to make in January 2010 were paid early in Nov or
           December 2009 to purposefully increase govt spending.

           2 - There are suspicions that Karamanlis used the fires as an
           excuse to call elections because he saw that the shit was about to
           hit the fan on the government's financial situation.

           3 - When I asked about the IMF team looking at the Greek books my
           source laughed and said, "that's assuming they even show them the
           right books."

           &lt;laura_jack.vcf&gt;
</description>
    <date>2010-01-17 00:57:08</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-17 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/397495_fwd-insight-greece-monetary-troubles-rumor-mill-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>morson@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mongoven@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>397499</id>
    <title>Re: Bishek
</title>
    <description>Done while your boy Oboma was meeting with Russians.
Putin knows he has no balls

------Original Message------
From: Scott Stewart
To: Fred Burton
Subject: RE: Bishek
Sent: Apr 9, 2010 7:27 AM

Yep. We've been saying that since the beginning. 

-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
Sent: Friday, April 09, 2010 8:15 AM
To: Scott Stewart
Subject: Bishek

Russian covert action toppled govt 
</description>
    <date>2010-04-09 14:46:17</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-23 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/397499_re-bishek-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>397988</id>
    <title>Re: Assange
</title>
    <description>   Funny...and probably good advice. It's not Doubleday, specifically - it's
   the Knopf side, but hopefully they do well.

   Happy holidays!
   Jason
    
   From: George Friedman [mailto:gfriedman@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Monday, December 27, 2010 05:44 PM
   To: Kaufman, Jason
   Subject: Assange
    
   You guys are publishing him?  Get it out fast.  This guys shelf life may
   not be all you hope. He is always one step away from a crazed moment, like
   comparing himself to Martin Luther King and saying that 50 percent of the
   people in the world believe that.  The deck is not completely full. 

   I'd say get to market in two months. Enjoy.
   --

   George Friedman

   Founder and CEO

   Stratfor

   700 Lavaca Street

   Suite 900

   Austin, Texas 78701

   Phone  512-744-4319

   Fax  512-744-4334
</description>
    <date>2010-12-28 18:00:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/397988_re-assange-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>JKaufman@randomhouse.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>398032</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 10-25-11 media
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   The Amnesty press release objecting to Dow's Olympic sponsorship has had
   at least a dozen pickups in US, Canada, India and global media, but
   apparently not by the major wire services. The piece that was reported on
   Monday evening was seen via the following websites: States News Service,
   Common Dreams, PTI, Daily Bhaskar, allvoices, Canada Views, Yuba Net,
   Management (Netherlands), Tolerance.ca, Times of India, MSN India,
   Economic Times, Indian Express, and Business Standard.

   http://www.commondreams.org/newswire/2011/10/24-5

   IANS reported the Bhopal NGOs issued a press release of their own on the
   Olympics sponsorship topic. Rachna Dhingra complained about India's Prime
   Minister and the Indian Olympic Association (IOA) not writing to the LOCOG
   to protest Dow's sponsorship. IOA acting president Vijay Kumar Malhotra
   had said he would write a letter, but has not. The gas NGOs have written
   to PM Singh asking him to write to the LOCOG, which he has not done. The
   NGOs said they will themselves write directly to Lord Coe on the matter.
   Dhingra mentioned the Amnesty letter to Coe.

   This piece has had about 10 pickups, all in Indian media except for Yahoo!
   News. Pickups include India Gazette, Yahoo, allvoices, Daji World, Kerala
   Next, WebIndia123, Indians in Thailand, Mangalorean, NewsOne, and
   TwoCircles.net.

   Full text of the press release does not appear to be available at this
   time.

   http://story.indiagazette.com/index.php/ct/9/cid/701ee96610c884a6/id/200419580/cs/1/ht/Bhopal%20gas%20victims%20slam%20Dow%20sponsoring%20London%20Olympics/

   Daily News &amp; Analysis published a print article on the ICJB press release,
   which is very similar to the IANS account. The article appeared in the DNA
   Indore edition on p5 in the top left corner.

   India's Telegraph reported a 33-year-old woman is now the "head of the
   Bhopal royals' religious endowments." Saba Ali Khan said she "wanted to
   visit some Bhopal gas survivors" on a recent visit to the city, but
   "circumstances forced her to cancel the trip." The circumstances had to do
   with the government razing "a few homes in an unauthorized colony at Arif
   Nagar, which has dwellings of gas survivors." Full text available on
   request.

   In Spain, Eldiariomontanes published an article about the Yes Men's pranks
   that does not appear to be favorable to the activists. The BBC/Bhopal hoax
   is mentioned.

   Spanish language: 
   http://www.eldiariomontanes.es/v/20111025/sociedad/destacados/acidas-travesuras-20111025.html

   The activist report will follow shortly.

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-10-25 17:00:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/398032_bhopal-update-10-25-11-media-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>398088</id>
    <title>Yes Men monitoring - 02-04-11
</title>
    <description>   Yes Man Andy Bichlbaum will appear on Thursday, Feb. 10 as a "discussant"
   at a session of the College Arts Association Conference in New York City.
   The session on "The Art of Pranks" will be held at 9:30 a.m. in the Nassau
   Suite of the Hilton New York.

   http://conference.collegeart.org/2011/sessions/sessions.php?period=2011-02-10

   Bichlbaum was also recently interviewed for PBS program MediaShift by
   fellow Parsons The New School for Design faculty member Mark Hannah. The
   topic of was "the ethics of WikiLeaks." Bichlbaum is a supporter of Mark
   Assange's work, saying WikiLeaks is "the manifestation of the promise of
   the Internet: To bring about more democracy." Hannah differed with
   Bichlbaum, concluding that Assange's intent is to be in the spotlight
   himself, where the Yes Men "Men are happy to make a spectacle of
   themselves in order to bring public attention to corporate exploitation
   and malfeasance."

   http://www.pbs.org/mediashift/2011/02/the-yes-mens-bichlbaum-discusses-ethics-of-wikileaks033.html

   Yes Men Fix The World Screenings have been added to the calendar:

   -       Sat, Feb. 5 in Fayetteville, NC at the Cameo Art House Theatre.
   Sponsored by Sustainable Sandhills Promotions, a post-film discussion be
   held.

   -       Tues, Feb. 8 in Lethbridge, AB at Galilleo's Lounge, Student Union
   Building, Univ. of Lethbridge. Sponsored by Cinema Politica.

   -       Thurs, Mar. 10 in Toronto, ONT at the National Film Board, 150
   John St. Sponsored by the Elementary Teachers of Toronto Political Acion
   Committee. The event speaker is Steve Shallhorn, Exec. Dir. Of Labour
   Education Centre, who "has worked across the world with Greenpeace and has
   a long history of community involvement in Toronto."

   -       Mon., Mar. 14 in Albuquerque, NM at the Univ. of NM's SUB Theater
   Room 1003. Sponsored by the People Before Profit film series. Post-film
   discussions during the series are led by professors and graduate students.

   Regards,

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-02-04 20:25:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/398088_yes-men-monitoring-02-04-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mkolleth@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>398199</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 11-02-11
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   PTI reported this morning the Bhopal NGO BGPMUS led by Abdul Jabbar wrote
   to PM Singh and "demanded that the government must demand that the British
   Government and the London Olympic Committee to reject DOW Chemicals
   sponsorship." The NGO expanded on their demand, saying if the sponsorship
   is not dropped, India should boycott the Games altogether.

   http://zeenews.india.com/sports/others/india-must-boycott-london-games-if-dow-sponsors-gas-victims_731669.html

   Indian Express and Asian Age reported the Central Information Commission
   has gotten involved in RTI requests from Rachna Dhingra. The hospital had
   denied her document requests, saying it "was run by an autonomous trust
   created by the Supreme Court of India." The CIC has now ordered the
   BMHRC's director to appoint "a public information officer and an appellate
   authority" by the end of this week, and fulfill Dhingra's requests by Dec.
   5.

   The articles have only appeared in the print editions at this time. Full
   text available on request.

   Oklahoma State University student media The Daily O'Collegian has a
   commentary by a Freshman in Liberal Studies who cited the Bhopal gas
   accident and Warren Anderson. The commentary is a criticism of capitalism
   and globalization in general.

   http://www.ocolly.com/global-economy-spreads-endemic-global-suffering-1.2678666

   From the activist resources:

   -       A new BMA Facebook page reported a BMA representative attended the
   Scottish Green Party Conference 2011. The BMA rep was not identified.

   -       A new BMA Twitter post reported a new video was posted on the
   group's YouTube channel. The item is 13 minutes long, had only been viewed
   6 times and did not successfully load for viewing.

   -       An Olympics blog titled Playthegame.org posted The Hindu's article
   on the Amnesty Int'l letter to LOCOG objecting to the stadium wrap
   sponsorship. According to its website, "Play the Game aims to strengthen
   the basic ethical values of sport and encourage democracy, transparency
   and freedom of  expression in world sport. Play the Game is an independent
   institution funded by the Danish Ministry of Culture, the Danish
   Gymnastics and Sports Associations (DGI) and the Danish Federation of
   Company Sports (DFIF)."

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-11-02 16:34:06</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/398199_bhopal-update-11-02-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>398228</id>
    <title>Yes Men monitoring 02-11-11
</title>
    <description>   2/6 The UK's Guardian published an article titled "Ethical pioneers change
   the way we live" that included Yes Men Andy Bichlbaum and MIke
   Bonanno among the "pioneers." The article cited the Bhopal/BBC hoax in
   introducing the pair. The following several paragraphs discussed the Yes
   Lab concept of teaching direct media action and described the Chevron "We
   Agree" hoax campaign. Bonanno said the Yes Lab network numbers about
   100,000 who are "chomping at the bit to do something themselves."

   Several left and online media outlets have reposted the article.

   http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/feb/06/ethical-living-martha-lane-fox%20http://fb.me/DpfAGa0v

   -       Colin Toogood tweeted a link to the article and posted the link on
   the BMA's Facebook page.

   Western Canada arts/activist magazine Art+Threat republished a review of
   The Yes Men Fix the World that had appeared originally in Nov. 2010 in
   Montreal's Concordia College newspaper The Concordian.

   http://artthreat.net/2011/02/yes-men-fix-the-world-review/

   Best regards,

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-02-11 19:57:38</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/398228_yes-men-monitoring-02-11-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mkolleth@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>398561</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 11-16-11 Activist
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   BMA is actively sending tweets urging recipients to "Vote to dump Dow" on
   the Guardian website poll asking "Should Olympic chiefs dump Dow?" More
   than 50 messages have been sent in the past few hours.

   The voting results are not visible until after the poll closes, but the
   page has been recommended 367 times so far.

   Three comments have also been posted, all critical of Dow. One of the
   comments is from Pesticide Action Network UK (PAN-UK), which named EDF as
   another Olympic sponsor considered "dodgy."

   http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/poll/2011/nov/15/olympics-2012-dow?fb=native

   Rachna Dhingra and Tim Edwards each emailed the poll URL to the
   "Remember-Bhopal" distribution list and encouraged recipients to vote
   "Yes."

   Edwards also emailed 8 URLs for a "selection of UK coverage" on Tuesday.

   The ICJB website, Bhopal.net, front page has undergone a partial
   transition, with a new image of a Bhopal torch light rally and a
   reorganization of the information on the page. The site's interior pages
   do not appear to have changed. A snapshot of the new layout is attached.

   The Games Monitor watchdog blog and message board posted Tuesday's BMA
   press announcement and Times of India's report on Coe's hearing testimony
   on the Dow sponsorship.

   Four new screenings of the Bhopali film have been announced from Nov. 30
   to Dec. 2. The events are posted on the film's Facebook page.

   -       11/30 Writer and BMA co-founder Indra Sinha will (host/present?)
   the film screening at the Frontline Club in London at 6:30 p.m.

   -       12/1 The Indie Screen in Brooklyn, NY

   -       12/1 Pittsburgh University, presented by AID Pittsburgh at 7 pm.

   -       12/2 Amnesty International Film Festival, Bloor Street United
   Church in Toronto, Ontario at 11 a.m.

   Also, there is a new AID chapter at George Washington University in
   Washington, D.C. No details have been released about the group, other than
   it was founded "with the help of a few AID JHU (Johns Hopkins Univ)
   students."

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-11-16 21:12:36</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/398561_bhopal-update-11-16-11-activist-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>398679</id>
    <title>Re: GOOGLE's Jared Cohen update
</title>
    <description>Marty Lev, the security director and Eric Schmidt the CEO (GOOGLE)

George Friedman wrote:
&gt; We need your sources classified in our system. I have no idea who this
&gt; source is, where he is located or how reliable he is.  You have
&gt; fantastic and invaluable sources but you have to get with Stick to
&gt; build them into our system. Otherwise we can't make good use of them. 
&gt; Please get together on this guys.
&gt;
&gt; On 02/14/11 09:17 , Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt; ** Note comment about Cohen.  The inference is relative to Cohen working
&gt;&gt; for the State Dept and WH to support Arab regime changes.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Did C go into Gaza?  Thanks
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; -------- Original Message --------
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; No we told him not too.  He's not happy but accepting of it.  Also,
&gt;&gt; thinking I may be on the right track about him despite his denials. 
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; I will call you Wednesday to discuss more
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;     
&gt;
&gt; -- 
&gt;
&gt; George Friedman
&gt;
&gt; Founder and CEO
&gt;
&gt; STRATFOR
&gt;
&gt; 221 West 6^th Street
&gt;
&gt; Suite 400
&gt;
&gt; Austin, Texas 78701
&gt;
&gt;  
&gt;
&gt; Phone: 512-744-4319
&gt;
&gt; Fax: 512-744-4334
&gt;
&gt;  
&gt;
</description>
    <date>2011-02-14 16:25:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-14 22:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/398679_re-google-s-jared-cohen-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>398705</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 036-14-11
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   Colin Toogood posted on the BMA's Facebook and Twitter pages that BMA will
   do a talk on Wed. at 3p.m. for the Student International Development
   Society at the Univ. of Sussex. He asked the Brighton-area networks to
   re-post the event announcement.

   The only media to report at this time is an India participant media piece
   from The Ground Report complaining about corruption at the ministerial
   levels of government. This piece by a Proloy Bagchi invoked Ram
   Jethalmani's allegation last summer that the Congress party "received
   payments from Union Carbide...after the Bhopal gas tragedy" and added the
   public outrage against the UCIL criminal case convictions as evidence of
   "the collusive arrangement between the then Union Government and UCC."

   http://www.groundreport.com/Politics/Of-venal-ministers-and-their-corrupt-parties/2936521

   As through the weekend, there are pieces on India's nuclear power debate
   in light of the Japan disaster that also cite the Bhopal gas tragedy.

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-03-14 16:13:14</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/398705_bhopal-update-036-14-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>399265</id>
    <title>New video on climate change and hydropower
</title>
    <description>   Dear CLIMATE-L,

   International Rivers has created a state-of-the-art Google Earth 3-D tour
   and video narrated by Nigerian activist Nnimmo Bassey, Chair of Friends of
   the Earth International and winner of the prestigious Right Livelihood
   Award. The production was launched yesterday at COP17 in Durban.

   The tour illustrates how melting glaciers in the Himalayas may lead to
   higher flood and safety risks for communities living downstream of dams.
   The tour plunges the viewer deep inside one of Brazil's dirtiest
   reservoirs, at the Tucurui Dam, to visualize how rotting organic material
   creates methane gas, which bubbles up from dam reservoirs to emit
   greenhouse gases in the tropics. The tour visualizes what smaller,
   decentralized projects would look like that could more efficiently
   eradicate energy poverty in Africa than large dams, while also reducing
   the economic risks of drought-crippled dams.

   To access the video on the International Rivers website, you may click
   here: http://www.internationalrivers.org/en/google-earth-climate

   Thank you,
   Zachary

   --
   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
   Zachary Hurwitz
   Policy Program Coordinator
   + 1 510 848 1155 x313 / skype: zacharyhurwitz
   Fax: +1 510 848 1008
   zachary@internationalrivers.org
   www.internationalrivers.org
   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
   Follow us: Blog / Facebook / Twitter

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</description>
    <date>2011-11-29 19:39:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/399265_new-video-on-climate-change-and-hydropower-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>climate-l@lists.iisd.ca</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zachary@internationalrivers.org</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>399448</id>
    <title>The Weekly
</title>
    <description>   Congratulations on your Weekly. I very much agree with it, and it deserves
   wider circulation by one means or another.
   The problem is that while Stratfor and some other outlets - as well as
   insiders - have known and do appreciate what is going on in the world, the
   vast majority of people have not. I'm not talking about the great unwashed
   here - the people who  fall over for Oprah Winfrey or who don't read the
   news - but even the so called sophisticates and other couch potatoes who
   pretend to be well informed. This includes a good many media folk, and
   most of those who pose as television pundits. When I have said - in this
   case on CNBC - that negotiations have been going on with the Taliban
   (before they actually were announced), that Germany was moving closer to
   Russia, that the US could not defend Georgia, to take some examples, I
   have been greeted with incredulity by my well educated, mostly American,
   interlocutors. I studied the debates on Afghanistan in the UK and
   Australian parliaments line for line, and there was very little to suggest
   that any significant politician was as well informed as the ordinary
   Stratfor subscriber. They repeated the well rehearsed slogans about
   'fighting terrorism' and 'supporting the troops'.  I've also read columns
   of stuff in so called serious newspapers like the FT, The Observer etc
   etc. With some exceptions, most need a reality check. As you've said many
   times, they are too concerned on reporting what people say (largely spin)
   rather than what they actually do. 
   So it is not surprising that these people were given a wake up cal by the
   WikiLeaks stuff, because they were not paying attention, which is a real
   problem. In that sense, in my view, WL has served a purpose. 
   If anything it proves the need for more of the chattering classes and
   media to subscribe to Stratfor. You could take half a dozen of the more
   sensatonal WL leaks and say: 'If you'd subscribed to Stratfor you would
   have known this a year ago". They would then have known that the Saudis
   were in a fret about Iran long before Assange got round to telling them.
   He's obviously has delusions of his own importance, but I don;t seem him
   as a criminal. He does need to keep his dick under control. 
   C
   --
   Colin Chapman
</description>
    <date>2010-12-16 01:18:36</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/399448_the-weekly-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>colin@colinchapman.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>399501</id>
    <title>BHOPAL - ICJB Annual conference article
</title>
    <description>   For some reason the article cuts off, but good to know Gary Cohen went to
   this year's ICJB meeting. Wasn't he away from this for a few years?

   http://www.lokvani.com/lokvani/article.php?article_id=6832
    

   International Campaign For Justice In Bhopal Hosts Annual Conference  
   Press release
   10/13/2010

   Students and Professionals Concerned for Bhopal Meet in Cambridge, MA
   Cambridge-The International Campaign for Justice in Bhopal (ICJB) hosted
   its 6th Annual North American Conference this past weekend to discuss
   ongoing health and environmental issues in Bhopal, India.
   On December 3, 1984 a gas leak from Union Carbide India Limited, a
   U.S.-owned chemical manufacturing site, devastated the central Indian city
   of Bhopal. To this day acute and chronic toxic contamination from the
   disaster has left 25,000 dead, and over 500,000 affected. Dow Chemical
   Corporation (Midland, MI), who acquired Union Carbide in 2001, refuses to
   clean up the abandoned pesticide plant, which has caused a growing
   environmental and public health crisis.
   30 concerned activists from throughout the U.S., and a couple from Europe,
   met on MIT's campus to learn about the Bhopal disaster from field experts.
   They now aim to mobilize their own community members on the human rights
   issue.
   Conference organizers Shana Ortman (San Francisco), Claire Rosenfeld
   (Olympia, WA), and Leonid Chindelevitch (Cambridge, MA) warn that "we all
   live in Bhopal." Keynote speaker Gary Cohen, director of the Environmental
   Health Fund, echoed this reality when he said, "the same chemicals are in
   our veins." In other words, toxic contamination occurs on a smaller scale
   all over the world and even in our own communities.
   Only 10% of Bhopalis have access to uncontaminated water; toxins from the
   pesticide plant are spreading into the city's water table, causing
   cancers, chronic diseases, and birth defects. ICJB would like the Obama
   administration
</description>
    <date>2010-12-23 20:19:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/399501_bhopal-icjb-annual-conference-article-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>morson@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mongoven@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>morson@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>defeo@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>pubpolblog.post@blogger.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>400961</id>
    <title>FW: Failure of Stratfor-Stratcap deal
</title>
    <description>   Don,

    

   Let's talk before I respond to Shea.  Give me a call at your convenience. 

    

   Best,

    

   Steve

    

    

    

                              CIRCULAR 230 NOTICE

   In accordance with Treasury Regulations, please note that any tax advice
   given herein (and in any attachments) is not intended or written to be
   used, and cannot be used by any taxpayer, for the purpose of (i) avoiding
   tax penalties or (ii) promoting, marketing or recommending to another
   party any transaction or matter addressed herein.

    

                             

   This e-mail and any attachments may contain confidential information
   belonging to the sender which is legally privileged. The information is
   intended only for the use of the individual or entity named above. If you
   are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or the taking of any action regarding
   the contents of this e-mailed information is strictly prohibited. If you
   have received this transmission in error, please immediately notify us by
   return e-mail, then delete the original message.

    

   From: Shea Morenz [mailto:shea.morenz@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Monday, July 25, 2011 9:09 AM
   To: Don Kuykendall
   Cc: Feldhaus, Stephen; George Friedman; bherzog@willkie.com
   Subject: Re: Failure of Stratfor-Stratcap deal

    

   Don: 10:30am it is

    

   Steve/Bruce: pls send a clear list of any outstanding items at this point
   ASAP. This is not the only issue outstanding.

    

   Thx

   ---------------------

   Shea B. Morenz

   713-410-9719

   shea@morenzfamily.com

    

    

   Sent from my iPhone

   On Jul 25, 2011, at 7:19 AM, Don Kuykendall &lt;kuykendall@stratfor.com&gt;
   wrote:

     How about 10:30 or 1:30, which ever is best for you.  I have a lunch and
     a 3:30.

     Sent from my iPad

     On Jul 25, 2011, at 6:50 AM, Shea Morenz &lt;shea.morenz@stratfor.com&gt;
     wrote:

       Don: what time is best for you today. Also, where are we re: the
       Stratcap Man Co doc?

       ---------------------

       Shea B. Morenz

       713-410-9719

       shea@morenzfamily.com

        

        

       Sent from my iPhone

       On Jul 23, 2011, at 11:41 PM, Don Kuykendall &lt;kuykendall@stratfor.com&gt;
       wrote:

         All is fine.  Shea and I are getting together Monday to work things
         out.  We blamed everything on the lawyers.  The result will be a
         frustrating StratCap and Service agreement that you and Bruce will
         vomit over.  So be it.  George, Shea and I are on the same wave
         length and are willing to have loose ends in the contract to get the
         business deal done.  The three of us have an understanding that goes
         beyond whatnots in the future that might happen.  If we can't trust
         each other, then things are going to fail regardless what the
         contract reads.  StratCap and STRATFOR are the same investment to
         Shea, George and me.  That's the way we move forward.  Do not spend
         time, you neither Bruce, on the service agreement until you hear
         from Shea or me.  

         Don

          

         Sent from my iPhone

         On Jul 23, 2011, at 1:13 PM, "Feldhaus, Stephen"
         &lt;sf@feldhauslaw.com&gt; wrote:

           Thanks, George.  I am glad you have gotten into the mix.  Life is
           too short for us to do this deal if it is going to involve the
           type of dealings that we have had with Bruce over the past four
           months (and Shea has to take some responsibility for the way Bruce
           has handled himself-Bruce may be the operator, but Shea read the
           documents and had them explained to him by Bruce, and he didn't
           put a stop to it).

            

           I am inclined to believe that this is going to work out.  Shea not
           only has a lot involved in making sure that this does work out,
           but from what Don has learned about Shea, what Bruce has done is
           not typical of who Shea is or how he operates.

            

           One point of reference.  Shea was with Goldman Sachs, but he was
           head of their regional private wealth group.  He was a
           relationship guy, not a deal guy.  He might have been around
           deals, but he has never done anything like this before.  So I
           think it is important for all of us to realize that he is most
           likely learning as he goes.  Our goal is to make sure he doesn't
           learn some really bad habits that will make living with him hell
           for us.  But if in the course of your talks you happen to find out
           that the bad habits are his, and not just Bruce's, let's all run
           for the hills.

            

           Best,

            

           Steve

            

            

            

                              CIRCULAR 230 NOTICE

           In accordance with Treasury Regulations, please note that any tax
           advice given herein (and in any attachments) is not intended or
           written to be used, and cannot be used by any taxpayer, for the
           purpose of (i) avoiding tax penalties or (ii) promoting, marketing
           or recommending to another party any transaction or matter
           addressed herein.

            

                             

           This e-mail and any attachments may contain confidential
           information belonging to the sender which is legally privileged.
           The information is intended only for the use of the individual or
           entity named above. If you are not the intended recipient, you are
           hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution, or the
           taking of any action regarding the contents of this e-mailed
           information is strictly prohibited. If you have received this
           transmission in error, please immediately notify us by return
           e-mail, then delete the original message.

            

           From: George Friedman [mailto:friedman@att.blackberry.net]
           Sent: Saturday, July 23, 2011 1:59 PM
           To: Feldhaus, Stephen; George Friedman; Don Kuykendall
           Subject: Re: Failure of Stratfor-Stratcap deal

            

           Shea has asked for a meeting this evening with me and don. I made
           it clear that I expect a complete change of approach precisely
           along your lines. I asked him whether, as a director of stratfor
           he would vote for stratfor to accept the services agreement. This
           is my litmus test.

           My goal here is a sea change in his attitude and tht he accept
           full responsibility for the documents produced. I will propose the
           removal of bruce and if he refuses ask him to pay for him. I do
           not pay for being fucked.

           I suspect this will work out from his attitude.

           Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: "Feldhaus, Stephen" &lt;sf@feldhauslaw.com&gt;

           Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2011 12:34:50 -0500 (CDT)

           To: Mr. George Friedman&lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;; Mr. Don R.
           Kuykendall&lt;kuykendall@stratfor.com&gt;

           ReplyTo: "Feldhaus, Stephen" &lt;sf@feldhauslaw.com&gt;

           Subject: Re: Failure of Stratfor-Stratcap deal

            

           Guys,

           You have my total support. Here's an observation that you may wish
           to use.

           We have been approaching this entire process from the perspective
           of what is necessary for success, that is, how should this work to
           give us the highest chance of succeeding with an expanded Stratfor
           and a successful Stratcap. Just look at all the work you've been
           doing George to gear up to support Stratcap. You'll see the same
           approach in my draft of the services agreement. Bruce has not had
           that focus at all. He has been concerned with legalities, and has
           hasn't always been a straight shooter even there. His Stratcap LLC
           Agreement is so one sided as to defy the concept that this is a
           joint effort toward a common goal. In Bruce's approach, Stratcap
           is totally Shea's baby, and we get whatever piece of it we are
           clever enough to negotiate, in the face of his one sided draft,
           while at the same time having a unlimited obligation to support
           it.

           I'm concerned that if we keep going like we've been going, we'll
           have to be referring to the rule book frequently to determine how
           we go forward. We'll also be putting our successful business at
           the risk of demands from Shea that have no boundaries. That's not
           the kind of partnership that I think any of us are looking for.

           I'm hoping you'll find Shea willing to be a good partner, and that
           we can get this back on track. It's in your--and his--hands.

           Best,

           Steve

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: George Friedman &lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;

           Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2011 11:34:01 -0400

           To: Shea Morenz&lt;shea@morenzfamily.com&gt;; don
           kuykendall&lt;don.kuykendall@stratfor.com&gt;; Feldhaus,
           Stephen&lt;sf@feldhauslaw.com&gt;;
           bherzog@willkie.com&lt;bherzog@willkie.com&gt;

           Subject: Failure of Stratfor-Stratcap deal

            

           Gentleman:

           As you know I have stayed out of the negotiations to this point. I
           am not entering the negotiations now.  I am simply looking back on
           the course of the negotiations, the current status, comparing it
           to the absolute requirements I expressed to Shea at the beginning,
           and pointing out that the agreement, and above all the tone of the
           negotiations, have failed to meet my requirements as stated
           clearly to Shea, and that therefore, I can't agree to this deal.

           I pointed out to Shea that any agreements had to contain the
           following elements:

           1: The interests of the two companies had to be completely
           aligned.
           2: I had to have a completely non-adversarial relationship with
           Shea.
           3: Nothing could threaten Don and my control of Stratfor except
           that we explicitly agree to that.
           4: I must not, under any circumstances be "Dr. Kooped," that is
           turned into a powerless figurehead, without power, ridiculed for
           the failures of others.

           These were not economic issues . They were existential issues of
           how I planned to live my life.  In reviewing the negotiations and
           current documents, my clearly stated requirements have not only
           not been met, but to the contrary, have been ignored.

           Let me begin with the negotiations which have been nasty, brutish
           and long.  I don't know if what I have observed from afar is
           simply a clumsy attempt at a good/cop bad cop routine or that Shea
           literally couldn't control Bruce, and I frankly don't care. What
           is of concern to me is that the singularly unpleasant approach to
           the negotiations of Bruce represents Shea's values and that I can
           expect more of it in the future. I won't live in that environment
           so the atmosphere of the negotiations for me is a deal killer. 
           Whether Bruce was acting at Shea's behest or Shea simply permitted
           that to go forward, Bruce's behavior is a serious red flag to me
           about what life would be like working with Shea.

           Let me review the way this deal has emerged.  We began at the
           Headliners Club where Shea proposed an investment of $2.5 million
           dollars. That was reduced to $2.25 million.  I am not comfortable
           with that sort of behavior, but I suppose it is something that
           businessmen need to do and let it pass.  I then discovered that
           agreeing to the investment accelerated the payment of taxes by
           $300 thousand dollars. Certainly this is merely an acceleration
           but it does draw down our immediate cash availability and made me
           quite unhappy.  Finally, the absurd legal fees of the
           negotiations--where I actually have to pay for Bruce's clumsy
           attempts to undermine the process--draws it down another $200
           thousand.  We have gone from $2.5 million for 10 percent of the
           company to an effective investment of perhaps $1.75 million for
           the same ten percent.  Frankly, the deal has become a lot less
           attractive to me.  I understand that Shea is investing the $2.25
           million, but I have to look at it in terms of what we get, not
           what he has put in. 

           Still, the deal remained feasible.  What pushed it out of the
           realm of possibility was the services agreement.  In that
           agreement, Stratfor agrees to provide StraCap with an unspecified
           and unlimited intelligence service in support of StratCap. 
           Neither Shea nor I have any real idea what the amount will be.  We
           are at the very beginning of understanding what will be required. 
           In effect, under this agreement, Stratfor is writing a blank check
           to StratCap that is not even limited by the amount investment. 
           Stratfor's liability is limited only by StratCap's needs, which
           are unknown and inherently unknowable at this point. 

           I can imagine easily a scenario in which StratCap's demands
           outstrips Stratfor's means to the point that StratCap would hold
           Stratfor in default and even push it into bankruptcy with StratCap
           the major creditor.  Nothing in the course of the negotiations
           gives me the slightest hope that Bruce would not do this in a
           heart beat and that Shea wouldn't let him.  I regard the proposed
           service agreement as a threat to the survival of Stratfor as a
           company under Don and my control. 

           Let me remind everyone that my interest in the deal was to build
           Stratfor publishing and to participate in StratCap.  Under this
           agreement, all money will have to be tasked to StratCap, since
           Stratfor has incurred an unlimited liability.  Capping the
           liability is not in my interest either.  I would not have accepted
           Shea's investment simply for Stratfor. We have avoided outside
           investment at all costs. It was the possibility of StratCap that
           interested me.  A capped amount invested in supporting StratCap
           increases the likelihood of failure and I have no intention of
           being the Chairman of a failed investment fund.  StratCap has to
           be fully funded for intelligence operations and Shea's investment
           in Stratfor cannot be the sole and unlimited source of that
           funding.

           I don't know what it will cost to support StratCap.  But it is our
           mutual ignorance of that, and my insistence that StratCap have
           every chance to be successful and that Stratfor use the money to
           grow its publishing business that makes the current proposal
           inconceivable.  It leaves Stratfor without investment capital for
           its publishing business until and if we learn whether the amount
           required is within its needs--and disastrous consequences if the
           needs are being Stratfor's resources. An artificial cap endangers
           StratCap and eliminates my interest in investment. I will not be
           the public image of StratCap, ridiculed for the failure of an
           enterprise that was built to fail.

           My understanding with Shea was that we would--as is the only
           option--collegially attack these problems with a commitment of
           both of us to making both companies work. I feel that Shea has
           broken his agreement in two ways.  First, he has attempted to
           create business obligations for Stratfor that are open ended and
           potentially disastrous.  Second, he has done so without
           guaranteeing the success of StratCap given the fact that we don't
           know what it will take.  The premature and thoughtless
           negotiations that have taken place violate common sense, but do
           create a situation in which StratCap can overwhelm Stratfor.
           Obviously, I won't permit this.

           In addition, all that has happened has violated the fundamental
           principles I laid out at the beginning.  These were both
           non-negotiable and and consistently violated both in the
           negotiating process and in the final business arrangements.  We
           are in the absurd position where I am to be Chairman of a company
           with an adversarial relationship with a company I am CEO of, while
           Shea is President of a company that is an adversary of a company
           on whose board he serves.  Sheer madness.

           From where I sit, this deal is dead. Given the time, effort and
           hopes that were devoted to this, I am prepared for a final
           discussion confined to Shea, Don and myself. the issue is two
           fold.  First, how do we resurrect a relationship in which my
           existential requirements are respected.  Second how do we align
           the interests of the two companies.  I have to confess that I am
           not optimistic but I will have this discussion if Shea wishes.

           I am leaving for Indonesia tomorrow evening and at that time
           moving on with my life.  I will have things to explain in the
           company where we have proceeded to implement our obligations to
           StratCap in good faith.  The only thing more painful that aborted
           an enterprise that was already underway, would be implementing it
           in the current terms and atmosphere.  That will not happen.

           George

           --

           George Friedman

           Founder and CEO

           STRATFOR

           221 West 6th Street

           Suite 400

           Austin, Texas 78701

            

           Phone: 512-744-4319

           Fax: 512-744-4334

            
</description>
    <date>2011-07-25 15:11:11</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/400961_fw-failure-of-stratfor-stratcap-deal-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sf@feldhauslaw.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>401468</id>
    <title>noble energy
</title>
    <description>   As I'm sure you are aware, Noble energy is trying to drill in Greek Cyprus
   waters, and Turkey is raising hell over it. Basically, because they can
   since Greece is a mess right now anyway.  The move to deploy frigates
   seems to be part of this.

   I was just talking to David (the bf), whose best friend's dad is the head
   of Noble Energy. They were all having dinner in houston and the dad was
   talking about how the Turks are creating a nightmare for them with this
   whole warships thing. David was telling him about what I do, and how we do
   a lot of work with Turkey, and the dad wants to talk to me about this.
   Might turn into a business opportunity, you never know. But this family
   has houses all over the world, the dad speaks 10 languages, living in
   Cyprus right now, used to be in Quito and before that, Vietnam, has all
   kinds of crazy connections and crazy dealings with shady people. I might
   be able to learn some interesting things from him. And maybe we could help
   them understand what the Turks are actually going to do...

   Background on the issue that Emre wrote up earlier-

   This is more of a summary of the current situation and questions that
   arise from it. Please feel free to add your comments/questions before I
   tap sources.

   Below is the area where American Noble Energy is supposed to start
   exploratory oil and natural gas drillings in early October according to
   the right granted by Greek Cyprus in 2008. (Attention: Leviathan and Tamar
   are Israeli wells, not Cyprus)

   As far as energy matters are concerned, there is not much to say. Since no
   exploration took place yet, there is no estimation of reserves that would
   tells us how far Cyprus would be willing to push the deal. However, given
   the gigantic reserves found in Israeli offshore fields, ita**s very
   possible that the same would be the case for Cyprus. At least this is the
   hope of Greek Cyprus.

   As you know, Turkish Cyprus is only recognized by Turkey, whereas Greek
   Cyprus is the official government of the entire island and a member of the
   EU, which is not recognized by Turkey. So, this is an issue of national
   sovereignty more than energy production, though Turkey does not want to
   lose energy reserves as well.

   What has happened so far;

   Greek Cyprus side:

   - Greek Cyprus FM sought political support in Israel. They keep saying
   that Israel supports them, but I really doubt that Israel would get
   involved in this controversy for Greek Cyprus while it is having its a)
   own offshore reserves dispute with Lebanon b) troubles with Turkey.

   - Greece is mostly quiet, for a good reason. Athens gives support to
   Cyprus, though only rhetorical. I also have not seen any important
   statement from the EU.

   - Greek Cyprus says it will block energy chapter of Turkey/EU membership
   negotiations. Greek Cyprus has already blocked eight chapters anyway and
   membership talks are in coma. So, this threat does not mean anything for
   Turkey. Even if it did, EU members have their own individual energy
   dealings with Turkey.

   - No statement from Noble Energy yet, neither from the US government.

   Overall, Greek Cyprus has nothing that can stop Turkey.

   Turkey side:

   - Turkey says TPAO will start drillings there as well. I am not sure if
   TPAO is able to do that on its own. Fourth well in the Black Sea oil
   exploration project is operated by TPAO, but the platform is owned by
   Petrobras. (to be replaced by ExxonMobil). So, this does not look very
   credible to me.

   - Most significant tool is, though, Turkeya**s decision to put military
   options on the table to be used in eastern Med, seemingly against Israel.
   Turkey never said it would use it against Cyprus, but if Turkey considers
   eastern Med as its turf that it is ready to defend militarily, there is
   not so much that Greek Cyprus can do to prevent it. This also increases
   risks for Noble Energy when it comes to investment decisions.

   - Turkish MFA also said today that Turkey and Turkish Cyprus agreed to
   conclude a continental shelf delimitation agreement should the Greek
   Cypriot administration proceed with offshore drilling activities in the
   south of the island. Meaningless political/legal move.

   Questions moving forward:

   Noble Energy: What are the plans of Noble Energy? Are they planning to
   move on with the deal? If so, how and when? Is there Noble Energy's
   platform off Cyprus? 

   Turkey: Is Turkey floating the idea of using the military threat against
   Cyprus? Can TPAO drill in southern Cyprus?

   Cyprus: What are the options of Greek Cyprus? What can they do to move on?

    

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-09-16 04:35:49</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/401468_noble-energy-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>401899</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 08-09-11 Media #1
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   As you've no doubt seen, BBC News published an updated article on the
   Bhopal activist response to the Olympic stadium sponsorship, this time
   quoting Satinath Sarangi. He called Dow's sponsorship a "dance on the
   graves of Bhopal gas victims" and promised protests in "Bhopal, Delhi and
   London, if necessary."

   The article noted former Olympic gold medal hockey player Aslam Sher Khan
   is calling for India to boycott the London games over the sponsorship.

   Dow's position on Bhopal and the London games, as well as the London
   Olympic Committee statement regarding the sponsorship were also included.

   The article has been shared on social media directly from the BBC News
   website 187 times, so far. There are no comments posted on the news page.

   The reporter is Shahzeb Jillani.

   http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-14443516

   India's Environment News Service reported Chemicals and Fertilizers
   Minister Srikant Kumar Jena told Parliament the DRDO will dispose of the
   Bhopal factory waste by incineration at the Borkhedi facility near Nagpur.
   The article cited the NEERI report assessing the environmental situation
   at the defunct factory, which credited contamination of soil and
   groundwater to chemical disposal from 1969 to 1984, and not to the 1984
   gas accident. There was no mention of the court or regulatory issues
   regarding the disposal.

   http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/aug2011/2011-08-08-01.html

   IBNS reported the Bhopal NGOs burnt an effigy representing "Corruption in
   medical care, rehabilitation and compensation disbursement" in solidarity
   with Anna Hazare's opposition to the GoI's Jan Lokpal anti-corruption
   bill. The Bhopal protest took place in front of the former UCIL factory.
   In Mumbai, Hazare burnt copies of the proposed legislation. This issue
   does not appear to involve action against Dow.

   http://www.indiablooms.com/NewsDetailsPage/newsDetails090811k.php

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-08-09 15:06:36</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/401899_bhopal-update-08-09-11-media-1-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>401958</id>
    <title>Re: Thoughts on Kaplan and Succession Plans
</title>
    <description>   I have to say I agree with everything George has laid out here. With all
   the training of our analysts and as brilliant as many are, they still need
   an overarching mentor. Robert Kaplan's knowledge of the world from a
   geopolitical point of view can mentor them when George is traveling and
   busy with Stratcap and Stratcon etc.  I expect George to actually outlast
   Kaplan and Judson (his medical tests show he'll likely live to 110!!) but
   they will give confidence to our investors and subscribers because we
   won't be seen as a one man shop any more. And they'll both make us
   wealthier in the long run.

   David Judson will be here the week of November 28 (right after
   Thanksgiving) by the way so please make sure you have some time that week
   to spend with him. We'll be putting together an agenda for his visit.

   On 11/12/11 8:15 PM, George Friedman wrote:

     Since we four are the principles of this lash-up (when all the bullshit
     is put aside), I'd like to explain to you what I am doing, in the wake
     of Shea raising reasonable questions on Kaplan.  It's important that we
     be on the same page. These are not shots from the hip, but an unfolding
     attempt at a realistic succession plan that I was asked to create. 
     Kaplan, and other things I am doing, is my plan for the Strats surving
     my death and helping me run the organization while I am bausy outside
     the company serving as its public face.

      

     Stratfor has always lived on a shoe string, particularly an intellectual
     shoe string.  It's been me, Meredith, and a small group of brilliant
     young people, recruited, indoctrinated and motivated by me, that
     produced the content that was the value of Stratfor.  We took many
     detours on the way here, from MBD to SRM to Merry.  All of these
     strained our resources tremendously, and Meredith and/or I bridged the
     gap with personal efforts.

      

     There are two problems we are facing.  With StratCap and the StratCon
     deals, our efforts alone can no longer bridge the gap.  Second, even
     without StratCap or StratCon, we have been on a perilous tightrope in
     terms of personnel.  Third, with StratCap, but even with Stratfor
     itself, there was a reasonable sense that Stratfor was a one-man show. 
     That endangers potential partners in StratCap, but it also undermined
     the value of Stratfor. Any exit strategy there always bought up my
     indispensability to what we are doing.  During the negotiations with
     Shea, the question of my health, my commitment and so on constantly
     arose.

      

     One thing I pledged was to create a succession plan.  When I pledge to
     do something, I set about doing it.  Don knows, and Shea is learning,
     that the fact that I am not discussing it doesn't mean it isn't
     happening.  From my point of view, from all my experience, I have
     learned that once intent is established, it's all about execution.  We
     had established a clear intent: to make the Strats viable even in the
     face of my death or kidnapping.  Ever since August I have been in the
     process of doing this alongside the other tasks I have.  I have tried to
     align all the things I am doing with this end.

      

     The construction of a succession plan requires the material foundations
     for succession, particularly staff.  Far more than the two of you, I
     have been long aware of the thinness of our staff.  Compared to other
     publications of our standing, and certainly compared to what we want to
     become, our staffing has been laughable, and our organization
     simplistic.  Therefore I have been involved in three things:

      

     1:  The reorganization of how we produce the product.  The appointment
     of Jenna and the alignment of various departments under her was the
     critical first step.

      

     2:  The second step was increasing our staff in all production
     departments.  Without that everything in step 1 would be meaningless. 
     The goal was to be two deep in every specialty-including two deep in the
     event of resignations, illness, travel and so on.  As it was previously,
     it was impossible for anyone to fall ill. We'd lose that area.  By
     personally taking control of the ADP program and managing a good deal of
     training, we have pulled off a pretty amazing feat.  We have achieved
     the near doubling of analytic staff, as well as increased sources and
     filled out the cadre for Jenna.  Yep, this cost a lot of money but we
     had agreed that this is where we are spending our money at the
     beginning.

      

     3:  As Shea once pointed out to me, the company was still not able to
     function without me, nor would it be perceived as functional without
     me.  The reality and the perception had to be dealt with.  The reality
     was that with all the demands on my time-demands that were now going to
     expand dramatically as StratCap came on line, and was already
     substantial with StratCon projects, my ability to train and lead was
     limited. I needed help that included an extremely experienced person who
     shared Stratfor's core values.  There was only one person who could do
     this: Bob Kaplan.  In addition to being able to fill in for me, he had a
     powerful following in his own right, which properly marketed, would more
     than pay his salary. He was well known in the financial and the
     intelligence/defense communities.  He would provide the perception of an
     alternative leader.

      

     I do not see Bob as actually being able to replace me. Intellectually he
     could. As a public persona he could. But Bob is not someone who can
     handle the nuts and bolts of the game.  Jenna has tremendous promise
     much of it fulfilled but she needs mentoring I can't give, and backup
     when the sun goes down.  I intend to bring in David Judson. David was
     the editor of Hurriet Today, with strong networks available to him in
     Eurasia (supplementing Meredith), knowledge of building networks, and a
     deep knowledge of publishing outside the United States. 

      

     Meredith and I know both Bob and David and both of us are comfortable
     with their backgrounds in both geopolitics and intelligence.  Both are
     significant public figures but while Bob towers in this, David is weaker
     there but far stronger in the nuts and bolts.  Where Bob will mentor the
     analysts, David can help Jenna.

      

     Most important, when the question comes up what happens if I die, we can
     point to Bob Kaplan and David Judson.  Together with Meredith, they can
     run the shop, and they will be seen as being able to run the shop.  The
     new members Bob brings in when we market his new book out in September
     and what David can do in foreign sales will make up their salaries and
     more-I guarantee it.

      

     So the task for creating a succession was put to me.  I am solving it by
     organizing us for the long haul, bringing in a larger and bright staff,
     and supplementing my leadership with two men in their fifties each of
     whom has a track record as an intellectual or managerial success of the
     first order. And both are friends I would trust with my legacy.  I don't
     make judgments like that lightly.

      

     This leaves open questions like expanding in to U.S. publishing or
     hiring economists.  I have views on both but the two issues do not
     intersect.  This is not an either or question. On the contrary, if we go
     into U.S. or strengthen economics we still need to solve the succession
     problem.

      

     So far as I'm concerned the steps that I am taking here solve them. 
     Kaplan is really my call. He is the intellectual engine to replace and
     supplement me, and to be honest, only I can judge what he can do in that
     sense.  Judson is also essential operationally as he enables a 24 hour
     production process that is essential for international sales, as well as
     a non-U.S. perspective while being fully an American.  I'll want you
     both to meet him when he comes here.

      

     Having faced the question of what happens if I croak, I promised to
     solve the problem.  I have.  With the steps I've taken, Stratfor will,
     in six months, be able to operate without me. As well as with me here? 
     I hope not.  But it can operate so well that our readers and clients
     won't notice.  That's good enough for government work.

      

     That leaves the towering issues of sales and marketing of Stratfor and
     of raising funds and organizing StratCap as well as guiding the
     inevitable complexities of StratCom.  But I fell I have tackled the
     issue of succession to the ground.  I know these guys can both bring the
     gravitas and expertise to bear. One couldn't do it. The two together
     can.

      

      

     --

     George Friedman

     Founder and CEO

     STRATFOR

     221 West 6th Street

     Suite 400

     Austin, Texas 78701

      

     Phone: 512-744-4319

     Fax: 512-744-4334

      

 --
 Meredith Friedman
 VP,Communications
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com

 221 W. Sixth Street,
 Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 512 744 4301 - office
 512 426 5107 - cell
</description>
    <date>2011-11-13 04:20:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-23 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/401958_re-thoughts-on-kaplan-and-succession-plans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Don.kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>shea.morenz@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>402117</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 04-05-11 PM
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   Documentary distributor MercuryMedia posted a press release announcing the
   films it will be offering at MIPTV in Cannes, France this week, including
   the Bhopali film.

   http://www.mercurymedia.org/news/mercury-announce-fresh-slate-and-new-sales-ahead-of-miptv/

   -       Documentary media RealScreen picked up the press statement.

   http://realscreen.com/2011/04/01/mercurymedia-heads-to-cannes-with-sales-kissinger/

   In India, PTI reported on MS Ahluwalia holding a press conference about a
   project to preserve tiger habitat. When asked about the WikiLeaks cables,
   he said the content indicating "he took sides with Dow Chemicals on the
   issue of removing hazardous waste from the Union Carbide Plant" was
   "totally wrong." He added that the "matter is in the court and with the
   group of ministers for a decision."

   http://governancenow.com/news/regular-story/plan-panel-pledges-more-project-tiger

   In activist communication, Leonid Chindelevitch posted at mid-day Monday
   on the Act-MA message board an invitation to the screening of the Bhopali
   film at Tufts University that evening. There has been no indication yet
   how that event was attended.

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-04-05 22:54:06</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/402117_bhopal-update-04-05-11-pm-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>402168</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] FW: Guidance on the leaks
</title>
    <description>   We probably asked the ASIS to monitor Wiki coms and email, after the
   soldier from Potomac was nabbed. So, its reasonable to assume we probably
   already know who has done it.

   The delay could be figuring out how to declassify and use the Aussie intel
   on Wiki.

   Wiki holding on to other docs is to protect their sources.

   The owner is a peacenik. He needs his head dunked in a full toilet bowl at
   Gitmo.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Colby Martin &lt;colby.martin@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2010 13:47:38 -0500 (CDT)
   To: &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;; CT AOR&lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [CT] FW: Guidance on the leaks

 Sorry if this has been seen but it is a good article and goes with what we are
                                    saying.

                       WikiLeaks' Afghan Documents and Me

  http://motherjones.com/mojo/2010/07/wikileaks-afghan-documents-and-me-source

   a** By Adam Weinstein

   | Sun Jul. 25, 2010 10:28 PM PDT

   a** Flickr/ Jabber1990 (Creative Commons)

   [For more on the WikiLeaks Afghan document dump, read posts by Kevin Drum
   here and senior editor Dave Gilson here.]

   Here's a cliche for you: A little knowledge is a dangerous thing. And
   here's a fact: A little knowledge is precisely what Julian Assange and his
   WikiLeaks cohorts have given us in the "Afghan War Diary." The intimation
   by Assange (and the media outlets he cherry-picked to preview the data) is
   that these are the Pentagon Papers of the Afghan war. Certainly there are
   a few eyebrow-raising details in the bunch, as Mark Mazzetti, Chris
   Chivers &amp; Co. at the New York Times point out. But in truth, there's not
   much there. I know, because I've seen many of these reports beforea**at
   least, thousands of similar ones from Iraq, when I was a contractor there
   last year.

   I haven't been through everything yet, but most of what you see on
   WikiLeaks are military SIGACTS (significant activity reports). These are
   theoretically accessible by anyone in Iraq, Afghanistan, or the Tampa,
   Florida-based US Central Commanda**soldiers and contractorsa**who have
   access to the military's most basic intranet for sensitive data, the
   Secret Internet Protocol Router Network (SIPRNet). Literally thousands of
   people in hundreds of locations could read them, and any one of them could
   be the source for WikiLeaks' data. I regularly went through the daily
   SIGACT reports in Iraq, not because my job required it, but because my
   colleagues and I were curious. We heard mortars or car bombs explode in
   the distance at night, and we couldn't help but wonder: What the hell was
   that? Every time a US unit engaged the enemy, encountered munitions, saw
   or heard something go boom, caught a criminal, or located a weapons cache,
   a report was filed. So, each morning when I entered my office on Camp
   Victory, I fired up my SIPR terminal and checked the SIGACTS for
   interesting stuff. 

   The first time I did it, my pupils dilated. A vein in my throat warmed.
   The reporter in me did backflips. I was about to breathe pure oxygen.

   By day three or four, I was bored to tears. Here's what I learned:

   Some SIGACTS are more detailed than others; most are mundane. Only a few
   in WikiLeaks' bunch fall in the former category. For example, an October
   2009 missive provides harrowing details of a battle in which Combat
   Outpost Keating was overrun by Taliban fighters; Chivers at the NYT did an
   amazing job of reconstructing that terrible massacre, in which eight US
   soldiers died and 23 were wounded. But most SIGACTS are much more
   routine-sounding; for instance, the Battle of Wanat on July 13, 2008, was
   actually the deadliest battle of the war for US forces so far, and a
   source of major controversy. Yet its secret report sounds dull by
   comparison.

   Probably the most significant thing about the SIGACTS is that they're
   counted and graphed by the military as a metric of how we're doing, and
   the obvious thing about the Afghan War Diary is that there are tons more
   entries for recent months in 2008 and 2009 than there were in previous
   months through the war. That's also a function of numbers of US and
   coalition forces; just as crime goes up when you put more cops on the
   street, SIGACTS probably should go up when you put more boots on the
   ground. And bear in mind, it's not an apples-to-apples comparison; more
   SIGACTS may mean more good things, like arrests and caches found, rather
   than civilian and coalition casualties. Even so, the most recent numbers
   are pretty sobering.

   There are two categories of data in the WikiLeaks files that could be
   really interestinga**and could cause some serious repercussions. One is
   the military's FRAGOs, fragmentary orders. These are strategic directives
   from headquarter to junior military commands in the field, and they cover
   pretty much everythinga**from orders on how to deal with detainees to an
   on-base visit by the wrestling stars of WWE. WikiLeaks provides a log of
   these FRAGOs, but doesn't have the orders themselves. It's a great
   bibliographic resource for reporters with time on their hands to file a
   FOIA request for the actual orders. But in the meantime, it's not much by
   itself.

   The other interesting data are notes from what the military calls
   KLEsa**key leader engagements. Military officers, as well as officials
   from State, USAID, and other agencies regularly meet with important
   players in a war zone to get their take on the situation. Often they're
   dull and tell the interviewers little they didn't already know; sometimes,
   though, they give insight to "atmospherics"a**how Afghan locals feel about
   US forces or the Taliban. Many of these key leaders take their lives into
   their hands; from my experience in Iraq, I know that numerous Shiites,
   Sunnis and Kurds with high standing among their tribesa**and among our
   enemiesa**took time to brief US officials, often to dish dirt on crooked
   or violent elements in their vicinity. If they were ever outed as
   collaborators with American forces, they'd be as good as dead. And
   Wikileaks has 16 pages of secret military KLEs with individuals and groups
   in Afghanistan, spanning six years. No names are redacted. In this case,
   what retired general James Jones, the White House national security
   adviser, said yesterday is correct: WL is putting some lives at serious
   risk with that particular data dump.

   I'll keep running through to see if there's anything else of importance.
   But most of this information is tactical nuts and bolts, devoid of
   context, and largely useless for a war narrative; what would be far more
   valuable than this stuff is the strategic/political data: military info
   that's TOP SECRET or above, which I haven't seen yet; or stuff from the
   State Department or provincial reconstruction teams (PRTs). (One
   interesting item: A November 2006 report on the WL site suggests that at
   least one PRTa**a team of anthropologists, political and developmental
   specialists, and soldiers sent out to assist local Afghans in rebuilding
   their nationa**engaged in propaganda, feeding broadcast information to
   local radio stations. It's not exactly damning, but it doesn't quite jibe
   with the PRTs' benevolent mission statement, either.)

   By and large, like most of the stunts pulled by Assange, this one's long
   on heat and short on light, nothing you didn't already know if you were
   paying attention to our wars. (And to the extent that you weren't, well, I
   guess the leak is on the whole a good thing.) For the best color
   commentary on this document dump, check out the very succinct analysis of
   Abu Muqawama at the Center for a New American Security. He pretty much
   says it all.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "CT AOR" &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, July 26, 2010 1:23:16 PM
   Subject: Re: [CT] FW: Guidance on the leaks

   Stick and I could find the suspect in 3 days.

   -----Original Message-----
   From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: ct-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2010 12:47:07
   To: CT AOR&lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [CT] FW: Guidance on the leaks

   The first is an excerpt from an intelligence summary probably sent to
   thousands; the second appears to be a DIA report, but could also be a
   retransmitted CIA document possibly through DIA reports, based on the
   the way the names are bracketed w/the ((.  The brackets around the names
   goes back to the old days, when this denoted that the names should be
   cataloged on index cards by the ladies back home.

   Matthew Powers wrote
   &gt; Attached are the only two reports that I have been able to find so far
   &gt; that deal with Gul.  These are both classified secret.  I am still
   &gt; trying to figure out who would have produced them, but wanted to post
   &gt; them in case someone here would know.
   &gt;
   &gt; MAGNETIC IED THREAT IN KABUL
   &gt; Organization(s) Involved: OPPOSING MILITANT FORCES
   &gt; 31 DEC 2006, CJTF-76 INTSUM, NIS
   &gt; 20061231-RC-C G2 -N/I S
   &gt; IED THREAT WARN - RC-C, KABUL, SIED &amp; RCIED (MAGNETIC MINES), 30 DEC - 1
   &gt; JAN  07
   &gt; Importance: High
   &gt; Classification: NATO/ISAF SECRET
   &gt; FYI.  Extract from:
   &gt; CJTF-76 Air Component Coordination Element (ACCE)
   &gt; CJTF-76 Air Support Operations Center (ASOC)
   &gt; Bagram Airfield, Afghanistan
   &gt; INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY
   &gt; 30 Dec 06
   &gt; (290300Z Dec 06 - 300259Z Dec 06)
   &gt; Country-Wide Threats:
   &gt; (N/I R) On approximately 17 December 2006, following a meeting between
   &gt; senior members of the TALIBAN leadership in NOWSHAHRA, Pakistan
   &gt; (GEOCOORD NOT AVAILABLE), which included General Hamid GUL, the former
   &gt; Chief of Inter-Services Intelligence  (ISI) Directorate of Pakistan.
   &gt; During this meeting GUL claimed he dispatched three unidentified
   &gt; individuals to KABUL City (GEOCOORD: 42S WD 15172 19937) to carry out
   &gt; IED attacks during the Eid celebration.  GUL instructed two of the
   &gt; individuals to plant IEDs along the roads frequently utilized by
   &gt; Government of Afghanistan (GOA) and ISAF vehicles.  The third individual
   &gt; is to carry out a suicide attack utilizing a suicide vest against GOA or
   &gt; ISAF entities.  Reportedly GULs final comment to the three
   &gt; individuals was make the snow warm in KABUL, basically telling them to
   &gt; set KABUL aflame.
   &gt; (N/I R) The three individuals traveled from SOROBI (GEOCOORD: 42S WD
   &gt; 6817430407), SOROBI District KABUL Province to their current location in
   &gt; the MUSAYI District, KABUL Province, (GEOCOORD NOT AVAILABLE) NFI.  The
   &gt; two individuals tasked with planting the IEDs will employ two types of
   &gt; IEDs, these being remotely detonated IEDs and a supposedly new Chinese
   &gt; made magnetic mine.  The three individuals tasked with conducting these
   &gt; attacks will be assisted in entering KABUL City by a group of five
   &gt; unidentified individuals, described as a KABUL Province criminal gang
   &gt; that is associated with General AMANULLAH GOUZAR, the current KABUL City
   &gt; Chief of Police.
   &gt; (N/I R) The Chinese made magnetic mines were described as a metal plate
   &gt; with a magnet attached to one side and the explosives to the other.  The
   &gt; mines are to be planted on roads frequently used by ISAF and GOA forces
   &gt; throughout KABUL, utilizing the snow as camouflage.  Reportedly, once a
   &gt; vehicle drives over the camouflaged plated mine the magnetic side will
   &gt; attach itself to the passing vehicle.  As the vehicle departs the area
   &gt; one of the unidentified individuals acting as a spotter will contact the
   &gt; second individual, who will be located on higher ground overlooking the
   &gt; road, via a cellular phone notifying him the package was picked up.  In
   &gt; addition, the spotter will also relay the vehicle description to include
   &gt; its license plate number or vehicle description.  Once the second
   &gt; individual receives this information and observes the vehicle he will
   &gt; then remotely detonate the mine.  GUL reportedly has received
   &gt; approximately 50 of these mines in order for them to carry out their
   &gt; operation.
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt; INS MEET TO PLAN AN SVBIED ATTACK
   &gt; Organization(s) Involved: FOREIGN FIGHTERS,INTER-SERVICES INTELLIGENCE
   &gt; DIRECTORATE,OPPOSING MILITANT FORCES
   &gt; 14 JAN 2009, TF CASTLE INTSUM 4311, NSI
   &gt;
   &gt; (SECRET//REL TO USA, ISAF, NATO) AAF MOVE BLUE JINGLE TRUCK VBIED TO
   &gt; SAROBI DISTRICT
   &gt;
   &gt; ON 5 JANUARY 2009, FROM 2100 TO 2300 HOURS LOCAL TIME, AAF COMMANDERS
   &gt; ((NAZIR)), ((HALLIMULLAH)), ((MALANG)) BASED IN WANA, SOUTH WAZIRISTAN
   &gt; AGENCY (SWA), FEDERALLY ADMINISTERED TRIBAL AREAS (FATA), PAKISTAN, HELD
   &gt; A MEETING TO DISCUSS THEIR PLANS TO AVENGE THE DEATH OF ZAMARAI.  THE
   &gt; MEETING WAS CONDUCTED AT THE RESIDENCE OF HAJI ((YACOUB)) IN WANA.  ALSO
   &gt; IN ATTENDANCE WERE THREE UNIDENTIFIED OLDER ARAB MALES, WHO WERE
   &gt; CONSIDERED IMPORTANT.  (SOURCE COMMENT:  THE ARABS WERE BELIEVED TO BE
   &gt; IMPORTANT BECAUSE THEY HAD A LARGE SECURITY CONTINGENT WITH THEM.) AT
   &gt; LEAST ONE OF THE THREE UNIDENTIFIED ARABS IN ATTENDANCE WAS PROFICIENT
   &gt; IN THE PASHTUN LANGUAGE AND THE ARABS WERE ACCOMPANIED BY APPROXIMATELY
   &gt; 20 ARAB BODYGUARDS.  ((HAMID GUL)), A FORMER MEMBER OF PAKISTAN'S
   &gt; INTER-SERVICES INTELLIGENCE (ISI), WAS IN ATTENDANCE AT THE MEETING
   &gt; ALSO.  HAMID GUL WAS DESCRIBED AS BEING AN OLDER MAN AND A VERY
   &gt; IMPORTANT PERSON FROM ISI.  (COMMENT:  HAMID GUL WAS DIRECTOR GENERAL OF
   &gt; ISI FROM 1987-1989 AND, ACCORDING TO ISI, HAS NOT BEEN AN OFFICIAL WITH
   &gt; ISI SINCE THAT TIME.  IT WAS NOT KNOWN WHETHER HAMID GUL WAS ACTING WITH
   &gt; THE KNOWLEDGE OR CONSENT OF ISI, OR WHETHER ANY PORTIONS OF ISI WERE
   &gt; AWARE OF HIS ACTIVITIES.)
   &gt; THE MEETING ATTENDEES WERE SADDENED BY THE NEWS OF ZAMARAI'S DEATH AND
   &gt; DISCUSSED PLANS TO COMPLETE ZAMARAI'S LAST MISSION BY FACILITATING THE
   &gt; MOVEMENT OF A SUICIDE VEHICLE-BORNE IMPROVISED EXPLOSIVE DEVICE (SVBIED)
   &gt; FROM PAKISTAN TO AFGHANISTAN THROUGH THE KHAN PASS, VARIANT:  KHAND
   &gt; PASS.  (COMMENT:  THE KHAN PASS IS LOCATED IN SWA AND HAS BEEN
   &gt; FREQUENTLY USED BY AAF AND ARAB FORCES IN THE PAST.)  THE SVBIED WAS
   &gt; DESCRIBED AS A DARK BLUE MAZDA JINGA TRUCK WITH A GRAYISH WHITE HOOD.
   &gt; AS OF 3 JANUARY, THE SVBIED WAS LOCATED IN AZAM WARSAK, SWA.  DURING THE
   &gt; MEETING, THE ATTENDEES FORMULATED THE PLAN TO MOVE THE SVBIED, DRIVEN BY
   &gt; AN UNIDENTIFIED ARAB, ON 10 JANUARY 2009 THROUGH THE KHAN PASS.  THE
   &gt; MILITANTS PLANNED TO TARGET SAROBI, AFGHANISTAN, WITH THE SVBIED.
   &gt; (COMMENT: SAROBI IS LIKELY A REFERENCE TO SAROBI DISTRICT, PAKTIKA
   &gt; PROVINCE.) HAMID GUL ENCOURAGED THE AAF LEADERS TO FOCUS THEIR OPERATION
   &gt; INSIDE OF AFGHANISTAN IN EXCHANGE FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN'S
   &gt; SECURITY FORCES TURNING A BLIND EYE TO THE PRESENCE OF AAF COMMANDERS
   &gt; AND FIGHTERS IN PAKISTAN (NFI).  ADDITIONALLY, THE AAF LEADERS APPROVED
   &gt; A PLAN TO SEND 50 ARAB AND 50 WAZIRI FIGHTERS TO GHAZNI PROVINCE,
   &gt; AFGHANISTAN IN EARLY FEBRUARY 2009.  ACCORDING TO HAMID GUL, THE AERIAL
   &gt; THREATS IN THE AREA WERE CONTROLLED FROM THE AIRPORT IN WANA.
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt; scott stewart wrote:
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; Thanks. Matt Powers from Research is working it too.
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;  
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; *From:* ct-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:ct-bounces@stratfor.com] *On
   &gt;&gt; Behalf Of *Ryan Abbey
   &gt;&gt; *Sent:* Monday, July 26, 2010 1:26 PM
   &gt;&gt; *To:* CT AOR
   &gt;&gt; *Subject:* Re: [CT] FW: Guidance on the leaks
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;  
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; On it.
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;
   ------------------------------------------------------------------------
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; *From: *"scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   &gt;&gt; *To: *"CT AOR" &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   &gt;&gt; *Sent: *Monday, July 26, 2010 1:16:40 PM
   &gt;&gt; *Subject: *[CT] FW: Guidance on the leaks
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; Ryan and Colby,
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; Can you guys please look into this?
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;  
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;  
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;  
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;  
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; *From:* scott stewart [mailto:scott.stewart@stratfor.com]
   &gt;&gt; *Sent:* Monday, July 26, 2010 1:15 PM
   &gt;&gt; *To:* 'Analyst List'
   &gt;&gt; *Cc:* 'CT AOR'
   &gt;&gt; *Subject:* RE: Guidance on the leaks
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;  
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; Yes, it would be good to know where the information on Gul came from.
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;  
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; Ia**ll get some people on it.
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;  
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;  
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;  
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;  
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; *From:* analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
   &gt;&gt; [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] *On Behalf Of *George Friedman
   &gt;&gt; *Sent:* Monday, July 26, 2010 1:09 PM
   &gt;&gt; *To:* analysts@stratfor.com
   &gt;&gt; *Subject:* Guidance on the leaks
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;  
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; There was a huge amount of low level information in the leaks.  It was
   &gt;&gt; overwhelmingly low level tactical reports and trivia.
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; There was one thing in them that wasn't.  That was the stuff that
   &gt;&gt; concerned ISI operations in Afghanistan as well as memos on
   &gt;&gt; conversations between senior U.S. officials and Pakistani officials.
   &gt;&gt; That stuff had much higher clearance and ought not have been in
   &gt;&gt; databases containing after-action reports by small units.  The ISI is
   &gt;&gt; technically friendly intelligence agency and the discussion of their
   &gt;&gt; covert operations in Afghanistan potentially reveals sources and
   &gt;&gt; methods that are tightly compartmentalized, if for no other reason
   &gt;&gt; than to keep the political fallout for a minimum.
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; As in any intelligence dump, I'm not interested in 99 percent of the
   &gt;&gt; stuff.  It is this 1 percent that interests me for two reasons.
   &gt;&gt; First, it should not have resided in the same database as the other
   &gt;&gt; stuff.  Second, very few people should have clearance to both
   &gt;&gt; databases on a need to know basis. In other words, the person with
   &gt;&gt; access to the ISI file might have clearance to tactical combat
   &gt;&gt; reports, but normally he would be noticed accessing them.
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; Regardless of classification, all systems have document tracking and
   &gt;&gt; basic usage warnings. If someone were to access all of these
   &gt;&gt; documents, he would be noticed.  So the issue is first, what was the
   &gt;&gt; ISI file doing mingled with tactical intelligence and who who would
   &gt;&gt; have the ability and need to access both, because at this level of
   &gt;&gt; usage, he would be noticed.
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; In a case like this, you ignore the 99 percent.  You focus on the 1
   &gt;&gt; percent that shouldn't have been buried.
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; I need someone to search what is available for information on ISI and
   &gt;&gt; Gul.  See what you can find.  I am going to hold the Weekly until this
   &gt;&gt; is done.
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; --
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; George Friedman
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; Founder and CEO
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; Stratfor
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; 700 Lavaca Street
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; Suite 900
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; Austin, Texas 78701
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;  
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; Phone  512-744-4319
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; Fax  512-744-4334
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;&gt; --
   &gt;&gt; Ryan Abbey
   &gt;&gt; Tactical Intern
   &gt;&gt; Stratfor
   &gt;&gt; ryan.abbey@stratfor.com
   &gt;&gt;
   &gt;
   &gt; --
   &gt; Matthew Powers
   &gt; STRATFOR Research ADP
   &gt; Matthew.Powers@stratfor.com
   &gt;
</description>
    <date>2010-07-26 20:52:03</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/402168_re-ct-fw-guidance-on-the-leaks-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>colby.martin@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>403121</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 09-27-11 media
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   Media items today are on the Yes Men and Diane Wilson.

   -       A stock trader calling himself Alessio Rastani told BBC news
   anchors "Goldman Sachs rules the world" and he dreams of the next
   recession as an opportunity to make money. Someone decided he looks like
   Andy Bichlbaum (there is some resemblance) and asked if Rastani is the
   same person who played Jude Finisterra in the 1984 BBC/Bhopal hoax. While
   Rastani is clearly not Bichlbaum, the story is gaining traction and the
   1984 video clip of "Finisterra" is being reposted on numerous websites,
   including the Washington Post.

     According to the Post, the Yes Men issued a statement confirming Rastani
     is not a Yes Man, but ""He's a real trader who is, for one reason or
     another, being more honest than usual." Neither the Yes Men or Yes Lab
     websites are currently available to confirm the statement.

   http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/blogpost/post/alessio-rastani-trader--or-prankster--tells-bbc-market-is-toast-video/2011/09/27/gIQAAber1K_blog.html

   -       Iowa's Heartland Connection announced Diane Wilson will appear in
   Fairfield, IA on Oct. 5 at the Jefferson County Farmers &amp; Neighbors, Inc.
   annual meeting "Corporate Accountability: One Woman's Struggle and
   Triumph." The preview article is actually a quite good summary of Wilson's
   activism. Her Bhopal activism and pursuit of Warren Anderson are included
   in the article but are not the main focus. Event sponsors are The Leopold
   Group Sierra Club, Sustainable Living Coalition, KRUU-FM, and Radish
   Magazine.

   http://www.heartlandconnection.com/news/story.aspx?id=667695

   There is nothing new to report from the activist sources at this time.

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-09-27 17:18:25</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/403121_bhopal-update-09-27-11-media-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>403126</id>
    <title>Yes Men monitoring 11-18-11
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-11-18 20:40:34</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/403126_yes-men-monitoring-11-18-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mkolleth@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/36/36542_Social media 11-12 to 11-18-11 YM FB.pdf</path><size>125350</size><md5></md5><sha1>0e75fb11487c6e00cb21bc4829261f2d94739d88</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/36/36543_Activist info 11-10-11 YM Bonanno - Stockholm.pdf</path><size>55889</size><md5></md5><sha1>87c16553dd82765dbfa58bbeec01d9cc4c69a63c</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/36/36544_Social media 11-12 to 11-18-11 YM Twitter.pdf</path><size>55647</size><md5></md5><sha1>c97510531905df1d0e788a84a93dea2619571832</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/36/36545_Activist info 11-14-11 Yes Lab - APEC.pdf</path><size>282135</size><md5></md5><sha1>c06d163dda8e230e23d25642194b1e9fcbf3b489</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/36/36546_Activist info 11-16-11 YL - OWS day of action.pdf</path><size>75403</size><md5></md5><sha1>cadd56652154ba93befd0d5b673532d4e41688b1</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>403291</id>
    <title>DOW CONFIDENTIAL: Bhopal Monitoring Report (no Friday report) Wednesday,
 November 23, 2011
</title>
    <description>Contact AIM for more Information                                                                                                                                       
Significant Activist Activity                                                                                                                                          
 11/22 Early Day Motion: 2 new signers, 19 total                                                                                                                       
 Commission on Sustainable London 2012: Interim statement regarding Dow's sponsorship                                                                                  
 Blog: T Jeory on political opposition to Dow sponsorship                                                                                                              
 11/21 PANNA press release on PPT: videos and updates wil be available from sessions                                                                                   
Media                                                                                                                                                                  
 11/21 C&amp;EN: Dow Olympic sponsorship; GoI sees Liveris as "too controversial" for India-US CEO Forum                                                                   
 11/22 Labour Party: T. Jowell asks Sustainability Commission to release documents, decisions on Dow and Bhopal                                                        
 11/20 Economic Times: ICJB sees opportunity to "get Dow on record as an interested party"; UK MPs playing politics with sponsorship                                   
 11/19 Asian Age: Open letter to London mayoral candidate claims Boris Johnson will loose Asian votes over Dow sponsorship                                             
 11/22 Guardian blog: Discussion on Asian Age letter and Livingstone's response                                                                                        
 11/23 Guardian: Report on T. Jowell press release asking for Dow documents from Sustainability Commission                                                             
 11/23 Guardian: Coe again defended LOCOG decision on Dow as a sponsor                                                                                                 
 11/23 PTI, IANS: MP CM Chouhan to GoI Sports Min: protest Dow sponsorship or boycott Olympics                                                                         
 11/23 IBNS: T. Jowell Labour party press release                                                                                                                      
 11/21 Hackney Gazette: MP Diane Abbott slammed Olympic corporate sponsorships; credited Bhopal deaths to Dow                                                          
 11/22 Around The Rings: Reported on MP Abbott's criticisms of coporate sponsorships for Olympics                                                                      
 11/20 Express on Sunday: Fabric stadium wrap panels tested; Coe and Gardiner quoted                                                                                   
 11/21 Daily Star: Columnist Sally Bercow - LOCOG should not have accepted Dow sponsorship                                                                             
Activist Activity                                                                                                                                                      
 Petition: 1080 signatures                                                                                                                                             
 Bhopali film screenings: Univ. of Pittsburgh; Frontline Club in London; IDFA                                                                                          
 Website updates: ICJB: Rail Roko instructions; SfB - change.org petition                                                                                              
 11/28 UW-Madison "Slow Food for Bhopal" fundraiser                                                                                                                    
 Blogs: Sporting News - Olympics activism; Jarvis - final post from Bhopal; Antinuclear blog from Australia                                                            
 Activist email: R. Dhingra - C&amp;EN article; anti-Bayer activists - PPT case on bee deaths from Bayer pesticides                                                        
 Message boards: PAN press releases; Asian Age open letter                                                                                                             
 Social media: BMA; anti-Dow Facebook page; Jeory; Jowell; Gardiner; Labour Party                                                                                      
 Yes Men: OSW drum circle for Bloomberg                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                       
11/22 Early Day Motion: 2 new signers, 19 total                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                       
11/22 Two new signers, for a total of 19, have been added to Keith Vaz' Early Day Motion calling for Dow's sponsorship to be "reconsidered":                           
-  Fabian Hamilton,  Labour Party Leeds North East                                                                                                                     
-  Anas Sarwar,  Labour Party Glasgow Central                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
Commission on Sustainable London 2012: Interim statement regarding Dow's sponsorship                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                       
On 11/17 the Commission for a Sustainable London 2012 posted an "interim statement" regarding "concerns" about the stadium wrap sponsorship. The statement             
acknowledged "a number of stakeholders, including Amnesty International and Labour Friends of India," expressed concern, and said the commission is "speaking to key   
parties to fully understand the origins of these concerns." A further statement may be issued "in due course" if it is deemed appropriate and necessary.               
 - Several activist resources posted links to the statement. The Games Monitor watchdog blog posted the entire statement with the subject: "2012 Sustainability        
notices problem with Dow!"                                                                                                                                             
http://www.cslondon.org/2011/01/commissions-official-statement-on-olympic-stadium-bid-process/                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
Blog: T Jeory on political opposition to Dow sponsorship                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                       
11/23 Ted Jeory, Express on Sunday's Whitehall editor, posted on his blog (attached) the stadium wrap sponsorship issue "is starting to enter pretty serious political 
territory" and listed three new developments:                                                                                                                          
"1. Lib Dem deputy leader Simon Hughes has today signed up to the cross-[arty [sic] campaign to force Locog to reconsider its decision. he has added his name to a     
letter that has been sent to Lord Coe, which I'll detail below. Tory MP Priti Patel is also on board.                                                                  
"2. Shadow Olympics Minister (&amp; Olympics Board member) Tessa Jowell has stepped up her own rhetoric, a) by writing to the Chair of the Commission for a Sustainable    
London 2012 to demand disclosure of important tender documents around the deal; and b) asking for a meeting with Dow themselves.                                       
"3. Locally, Olympic host borough Tower Hamlets Council is expected to lodge a formal objection with Locog about the deal after a vote next week."                     
 - Hughes and Patel signed on to the BMA/Amnesty/Friends of Labour letter, not Keith Vaz' Early Day Motion. Jeory included the text of the letter and the lists of MPs 
and Indian Olympians who have signed it.                                                                                                                               
 - Jeory provided the text of the Tower Hamlets Council's resolution to "lodge a formal objection with Locog" about the Dow sponsorship, and to join and assist the    
campaign calling for LOCOG to "reverse its decision" about the sponsorship. The council plans to write to Lord Coe, Secretary of State for Culture, Jeremy Hunt MP and 
LOCOG CEO Paul Deighton.                                                                                                                                               
 - Jeory promised "There will be further political developments by the end of this week, watch this space."                                                            
 - Jeory also included the text of Tessa Jowell's press release reported below.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
11/21 PANNA press release on PPT: videos and updates wil be available from sessions                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                       
A press release from PANNA about the Permanent People's Tribunal quoted PANNA co-director Kathryn Gilje, cited the allegations of "widespread and egregious human      
rights violations" to be heard against the six agrichemical companies, and promised updates on and YouTube videos from the proceedings would be made available through 
the PAN website.                                                                                                                                                       
http://www.enewspf.com/latest-news/science-a-environmental/28937-prosecutors-issue-summons-to-the-six-largest-pesticide-manufacturers-for-human-rights-violations.html 
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
11/21 C&amp;EN: Dow Olympic sponsorship; GoI sees Liveris as "too controversial" for India-US CEO Forum                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                       
Chemical &amp; Engineering News reporter Jean-Francios Tremblay posted a short article on the Olympic stadium controversy, saying "Union Carbide acquisitions [sic]        
shadows Dow at Olympics."                                                                                                                                              
In addition to briefly relating the past week's events, the piece ends with a paragraph on the Indo-US CEO Forum, reporting from an unidentified Indian source the GoI 
"is exerting pressure" for Liveris to be "removed" from the forum because the GoI "considers Liveris' membership in the forum "too controversial." Dow was said to     
have denied that is the situation.                                                                                                                                     
http://cen.acs.org/articles/89/i47/Bhopals-Legacy.html                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                       
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11/22 Labour Party: T. Jowell asks Sustainability Commission to release documents, decisions on Dow and Bhopal                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                       
The UK Labour party's website posted a report that MP Tessa Jowell wrote to Shaun McCarthy, the Chair of the Commission for a Sustainable London 2012, inquiring       
whether the commission will release for public consumption:                                                                                                            
-        Information it received "to determine Dow's commitment to sustainability" for the London Games                                                                
-        Whether it received any information countering "the information provided by Dow about their commitment to sustainability"                                     
-        And whether the commission discussed the Bhopal issue, its relationship to Dow, "and whether any decision was taken in relation to that."                     
The article reported Jowell asked requested a meeting with Dow, reiterated the three questions Jowell says must be answered:                                           
-        Is Dow's conduct since the 2001 UCC acquisition "consistent with the Olympics sustainability goals?                                                           
-        Did LOCOG seek other input on Dow and the Bhopal issue?                                                                                                       
-        Is there a reputational risk to the 2012 Games in relation to the wrap sponsorship, even if Dow should win Bhopal-issue legal battles.                        
Jowell said: "It's better that we have an unwrapped stadium, rather than a stadium wrapped in the continuing controversy of Dow Chemical's sponsorship."               
http://www.labour.org.uk/process-of-arriving-at-decisions-transparent,2011-11-22                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
11/20 Economic Times: ICJB sees opportunity to "get Dow on record as an interested party"; UK MPs playing politics with sponsorship                                    
                                                                                                                                                                       
Economic Times published a report on the past week's events regarding Dow's Olympics sponsorship.                                                                      
 - Rachna Dhingra was cited to support the activist case. The article said: "For Bhopal activists, it's not just an opportunity to embarass Dow, but also a chance to  
get Dow on record as an interested party." IIT Madras not allowing Dow to recruit is mentioned. Amnesty Int'l spokesperson Aloys Ligault indicated the activists want  
to meet with both Dow and LOCOG, but have not received a response to requests.                                                                                         
 - Scot Wheeler was quoted on Dow's position on Bhopal, its Olympic sponsorship and responsibilities, and UCC "managing its own liabilities."                          
- According to unidentified UK politicians, Dow officials are expected in London next week to meet with MPs, LOCOG and activists. A LOCOG official said "it is too     
late" for the wrap deal to be cancelled.                                                                                                                               
- The article suggested some of the UK MPs support of the call for LOCOG to drop Dow is political, with Tessa Jowell possibly aiming to embarass London mayor Boris    
Johnson during an election year, and Louise Mensch seeking to advance her career. Anti-US sentiment stemming from "harsh treatment" of BP for the Gulf of Mexico oil   
spill is also thought to play a factor in the opposition to Dow.                                                                                                       
Economic Times' Sunday print edition included on the article on p10.                                                                                                   
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-company/corporate-trends/bhopal-stretches-dow-chemicals-london-curtain/articleshow/10795100.cms                       
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
11/19 Asian Age: Open letter to London mayoral candidate claims Boris Johnson will loose Asian votes over Dow sponsorship                                              
                                                                                                                                                                       
Asian Age published an open letter from Farrukh Dhondy to Ken Livingstone, a candidate for Mayor of London. Dhondy ridiculed the Olympic stadium wrap, criticized as   
"hypocritical" Dow's  "sustainable" characterization of the wrap, and mentioned the Indian athletes' petition to LOCOG objecting to Dow's sponsorship. He suggested    
Livingstone has some leverage in the election, as current mayor Boris Johnson has lost popularity due to decisions regarding the Games. Dhondi suggested since         
the Games will open 60 days after the election, "A new mayor could tear down the 'wrap' or allow us Londoners to non-violently demonstrate against it."                
Dhondy is a British novelist and playwright of Parsi descent.                                                                                                          
http://www.asianage.com/columnists/something-s-rotten-city-london-041                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
11/22 Guardian blog: Discussion on Asian Age letter and Livingstone's response                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                       
A Guardian blog by Dave Hill discussed Farrukh Dhondy's open letter in Asian Age to London mayoral candidate Ken Livingstone. Hill described the Olympic stadium       
sponsorship "controversy" and statements by Sebastian Coe, Barry Gardiner, and Amnesty Int'l on the topic. He noted Tessa "Jowell's concern has particular             
significance in that she sits on the Olympic Board alongside Coe, culture secretary Jeremy Hunt and one Boris Johnson."                                                
Hill asked Livingstone's office for a reaction to the open letter, and wrote:                                                                                          
"Ken's concern is that we do not have a them-and-us Games where corporate interests override other considerations. There are concerns about Dow and the Olympic        
stadium and people will want to be reassured that Locog's clear ethical, sustainable and environmental criteria are being met so that we have a Games for everyone.    
"I'm not sure how much of a "yes" that is, but it does seem to send a broader message about principles and inclusiveness - one I sense Ken might be delivering more    
frequently as next year's mayoral election draws nearer."                                                                                                              
Two readers commented on the blog post - one asked "What was Tessa Jowell doing on the Olympic board when the deal was approved, then?"                                
The other comment, from Rosalind Hardie, mentioned Dow's production of Napalm and Latin American banana workers seeking compensation for pesticide exposure as         
additional issues.                                                                                                                                                     
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/davehillblog/2011/nov/22/olympic-stadium-wrap-controversy-ken-livingstone?newsfeed=true                                             
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
11/23 Guardian: Report on T. Jowell press release asking for Dow documents from Sustainability Commission                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                       
The Guardian reported on Tessa Jowell's open letter to the Sustainability commission wanting documents on the Dow sponsorship decision process. The article included   
comments from MP Barry Gardiner that Hughes and Khan supporting the campaign "shows that momentum is building against Locog's decision," and "Locog must reverse its   
decision now, before the London 2012 reputation is irrevcoverably [sic] damaged."                                                                                      
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/nov/22/tessa-jowell-olympic-sponsorship-dow?CMP=twt_gu                                                                            
                                                                                                                                                                       
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11/23 Guardian: Coe again defended LOCOG decision on Dow as a sponsor                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                       
The Guardian reported Lord Coe has again defended LOCOG's choice of Dow as the sponsor for the stadium wrap. This was in an article on football (soccer) as an         
appropriate sport for the Olympics, after a runner had alleged "most athletes" did not believe football should be included.                                            
On LOCOG's sponsorship decision, Coe said the committee is not "out of step with public opinion on the issue: "We always have a good feel for public opinion. We're a  
good listening organisation. Nobody would remotely suggest that the Bhopal disaster in 1984 was anything other than a human tragedy on an extraordinary scale."        
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/nov/23/football-london-2012-lord-coe?newsfeed=true                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                       
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11/23 PTI, IANS: MP CM Chouhan to GoI Sports Min: protest Dow sponsorship or boycott Olympics                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                       
PTI and IANS reported MP CM Chouhan has written to India's Sports Minister Ajay Maken calling for the GoI to "lodge a strong protest" against Dow's sponsorship of the 
Olympic stadium wrap or to consider boycotting the Games. Chouhan called the sponsorship "inappropriate" and suggested the money for the wrap "would be far better     
spent in alleviating to some extent the misery suffered by the people of Bhopal."                                                                                      
PTI http://ibnlive.in.com/generalnewsfeed/news/consider-olympics-boycott-due-to-dow-link-mp-cm-to-govt/912845.html                                                     
IANS http://zeenews.india.com/sports/others/protest-dow-s-sponsorship-of-london-olympics-chouhan-urges-maken_732797.html                                               
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
11/23 IBNS: T. Jowell Labour party press release                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                       
India Blooms News Service (IBNS) picked up the Tessa Jowell press release from the UK Labour Party website and noted, "in India on the other hand there is a situation 
where neither the Sports Minister or any MP in the Congress or the opposition has raised any objections to the issue of Dow sponsoring the Olympics."                  
The article cited Rachna Dhingra describing the ICJB petition opposing the sponsorship that was signed by the 22 former Olympians from India, and the several          
officials to whom it was addressed. The remainder of the article quoted from Jowell's press release.                                                                   
http://www.newkerala.com/news/2011/worldnews-112293.html                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
11/21 Hackney Gazette: MP Diane Abbott slammed Olympic corporate sponsorships; credited Bhopal deaths to Dow                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                       
Hackney Gazette reporter Emma Bartholomew quoted MP Diane Abbott complaining about the "[Olympic] sponsors associated with ill health and death," i.e. Coca-Cola,      
McDonald's and Dow. Of Dow, Abbot is reported to have said it "was once responsible for killing 15,000 people" from the Bhopal gas accident.                           
http://www.hackneygazette.co.uk/news/hackney_mp_diane_abbott_slams_dow_s_sponsorship_of_olympic_stadium_1_1131872                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
11/22 Around The Rings: Reported on MP Abbott's criticisms of coporate sponsorships for Olympics                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                       
Around The Rings posted a brief article about MP Diane Abbott's railing against corporate sponsorships, as reported by the Hackney Gazette.                            
http://www.aroundtherings.com/articles/view.aspx?id=38580                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
11/20 Express on Sunday: Fabric stadium wrap panels tested; Coe and Gardiner quoted                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                       
Express on Sunday published another short item by Whitehall editor Ted Jeory, who said some test panels of the fabric stadium wrap were put on the venue last week. He 
quoted both MP Barry Gardiner and Lord Coe on their respective stances about the wrap and Dow's sponsorship.                                                           
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/284808/Fury-grows-over-2012-deal                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
11/21 Daily Star: Columnist Sally Bercow - LOCOG should not have accepted Dow sponsorship                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                       
UK tabloid media Daily Star published a commentary by columnist Sally Bercow discussing the broad issue of corporate sponsorship of the London Games. While admitting  
sponsorships are necessary to produce the Games, Bercow exclaimed "the Olympic organisers should never have agreed to jump into bed with [Dow]. Some sponsorship deals 
just shouldn't be done."                                                                                                                                               
Bercow is the wife of House of Commons Speaker John Bercow.                                                                                                            
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/starsays/view/221641/A-word-from-our-sponsor/                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
Petition: 1080 signatures                                                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                       
The Change.org petition currently has about 1080 signatures.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
Bhopali film screenings: Univ. of Pittsburgh; Frontline Club in London; IDFA                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                       
 Bhopali film screenings                                                                                                                                               
-        The Bhopali documentary was shown Saturday, 11/19 at the University of Pennsylvania, sponsored by AID and the South Asia Center                               
-        A Jan. 30, 2012 screening is scheduled at the Frontline Club in London, a supporter of independent media, with Indra Sinha and Tim Edwards to hold a Q&amp;A. The 
Bhopali film Facebook page had previously listed a Nov. 30 screening at the Frontline Club. There is no mention of that date on the club website.                      
http://www.frontlineclub.com/events/                                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                       
The Bhopali film was scheduled for four screenings at the IDFA (Independent Documentary Film Festival Amsterdam) from 11/19 through 11/23. The film's page on the      
festival website shows it has received no votes and no updates during its run. IDFA is one of the major global markets for documentary sales and distribution.         
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
Website updates: ICJB: Rail Roko instructions; SfB - change.org petition                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                       
11/20 Bhopal.net added 2 new pages: one with instructions for participants of the Rail Roko protest on 12/3, and the other titled "We are all being poisoned," with    
lists of pesticide residues said to have been found on fruits and vegetables in India.                                                                                 
 - The Rail Roko instructions were given in a drawing, which is attached. Participants are to gather groups of 15-20 adults and children, march on cue to railroad     
tracks and lie down in groups on the tracks.                                                                                                                           
The protest will be cancelled if the response from the GoI that was promised from the activists' meeting with the Chemical and Fertilizers ministry secretary is       
received before 12/3. A response to the NGOs' demands regarding the death and injury figures used in the compensation curative petition was promised in 10 days from   
the Nov. 3 meeting. No reports have been seen about the response.                                                                                                      
 - The Bhopal.net front page also shows a new image of Olympic rings with the label "Bhopal olympics." The intent of the image is not clear.  Excerpted images and     
texts are attached.                                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                       
11/19 The Students for Bhopal/ICJB North America website was updated with an image and short description of Lorraine Close's change.org petition and "why it is        
important" to sign.                                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
11/28 UW-Madison "Slow Food for Bhopal" fundraiser                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                       
UWisconsin - Madison's Physcians for Social Responsibility chapter is holding a "Slow Food for Bhopal" dinner and Bhangra dance performance on Monday, Nov. 28. The    
event was spearheaded by Jasmine Wiley, a med student who spent a month "working in medical clinics in Bhopal." Drs. Ann Behrmann, a pediatrician, and Lalita du       
Perron, PhD organized the trip. The dinner event description discusses the Chingari Trust as the beneficiary of funds raised.                                          
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
Blogs: Sporting News - Olympics activism; Jarvis - final post from Bhopal; Antinuclear blog from Australia                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                       
UK Sporting News blogger/reporter Linus Fernandes posted an update on the Dow Olympic sponsorship and the Bhopal issue. Fernandes had written on the topic in August   
soon after the wrap sponsorship was announced. The current assessment called the Amnesty International letter to Lord Coe "the only progress on the matter.            
Prefacing excerpts from the Amnesty communication, Fernandes introduced the wrap sponsorship topic, saying "Dow fail [sic] to recognize their liability towards the    
victims of the 1984 Bhopal gas tragedy." He also noted "a letter" to PM Singh "has yet to be responded to. Inertia reigns."                                            
Fernandes mentioned Amnesty had previously protested Dow's Live Earth Run for Water sponsorship, and brought up groundwater contamination in the Bhopal factory        
vicinity.                                                                                                                                                              
He ended by bringing up BMA volunteer Lorraine Close's change.org petition and asking "Can any good come from the above petition? More importantly, can any bad?"      
                                                                                                                                                                       
Sambhavna volunteer therapist Ian Jarvis wrote a final diary installment on his blog as he prepared to leave. Among other topics, Jarvis mentioned preparations for    
the Rail Roko protest on 12/3. He seemed somewhat incredulous at the lengths to which the activists are willing to go, but complimented their enthusiasm for the       
event.                                                                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                       
An Australian blog titled "Antinuclear" posted an open letter from Fr. Xavier Pinto in Goa to Australian PM Julia Gillard asking, "Please don't sell uranium to        
India." The post's introduction cited the Bhopal gas tragedy, saying "India has enough trouble on this front."                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
Activist email: R. Dhingra - C&amp;EN article; anti-Bayer activists - PPT case on bee deaths from Bayer pesticides                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                       
Rachna Dhingra emailed the Chemical &amp; Engineering News article titled "Bhopal's legacy" from the magazine's current issue to the Remember-bhopal distribution list.    
                                                                                                                                                                       
German-based anti-Bayer activists CBGnetwork emailed a document on Bayer pesticides causing bee deaths. This is part of the "case" against Bayer to be presented at    
the Permanent People's Tribunal in Bangalore.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
Message boards: PAN press releases; Asian Age open letter                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                       
The Chennai environmental groups' message boards have posts by Rahul Muraldiharan of the PAN UK press release about the people's tribunal, and Nity Jayaraman posted   
the Asian Age open letter to Ken Livingstone.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
Social media: BMA; anti-Dow Facebook page; Jeory; Jowell; Gardiner; Labour Party                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                       
In addition to the usual BMA Twitter and Facebook accounts having multiple new posts of links to media and activist posts,                                             
 - Ted Jeory, Tessa Jowell, Barry Gardiner and the UK Labour Party have all posted tweets about Jowell's press release and/or the Guardian report on it.               
 - One BMA link of note is to the Parliament video archive of the Culture, Media and Sport committee hearing on 11/15. The activist comment is "watch Coe squirm."     
http://www.parliamentlive.tv/Main/Player.aspx?meetingId=9440&amp;player=silverlight                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
Yes Men: OSW drum circle for Bloomberg                                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                       
The Yes Men have been busy at Occupy Wall Street activities this week, including a 24-hour drum circle session that began Sunday afternoon near Mayor Bloomberg's      
home, and designating the area near the mayor's house as a "no First Amendment zone" when protesters were kept at a distance from the residence.                       
The Yes Men and several other social media accounts posted on Twitter and Facebook about the drum circle announcement.                                                 
The Yes Men's social media accounts and Yes Lab website had three blog posts reporting on the drum circle and one result of a woman being fired from her day job for   
taking part and describing Bloomberg as a "warlord." Full text available on request.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                       
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                                                                 Allis Information Management, Inc..                                                                   

   Please remove me from this mailing list.

    
</description>
    <date>2011-11-23 23:49:03</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/403291_dow-confidential-bhopal-monitoring-report-no-friday-report.html</permalink>
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      <file><path>attach/35/35162_Activist info 11-20-11 ICJB - new pages.pdf</path><size>689632</size><md5></md5><sha1>be834a6f9fa3f0f9e5ea60cc7338c6e81df1dc6a</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/35/35166_Blog 11-20-11 Jarvis - Sambhavna volunteer.pdf</path><size>117343</size><md5></md5><sha1>c68704848c5f1e9f3d62c4a20ab15a4510aebd74</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/35/35577_Blog 11-23-11 L Fernandes - Sporting News.pdf</path><size>165961</size><md5></md5><sha1>7d9474f4e7111c829d531bd0d2c62aae6857de7a</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/36/36557_Blog 11-23-11 Ted Jeory.pdf</path><size>151093</size><md5></md5><sha1>cc164b5ddb59a0efa39cd13427fa05f5e6a39f44</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/36/36566_Social_media_11-23-11_UK_politics_-_Twitter.pdf</path><size>233017</size><md5></md5><sha1>bc182f37a9e6856deb32efb3efa9ffc2810428b8</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/36/36567_Social_media_11-19_to_11-23-11_anti-Dow_Olympics_-_FB.pdf</path><size>139214</size><md5></md5><sha1>243fdfdfcb055f4d02c80198bcd5f07fb3dbbc42</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/36/36568_Activist_info_11-20-11_RailRoko-English8001.pdf</path><size>284070</size><md5></md5><sha1>2fb12f4f6dd6c7b24be4d0e08e309764d524d556</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/36/36569_Social_media_11-19_to_11-23-11_BMA_-_FB.pdf</path><size>206423</size><md5></md5><sha1>0e596406e85ee8c14415a377dbb30b4c523f8950</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>403310</id>
    <title>Yes Men monitoring 05-27-11
</title>
    <description>   Yes Men Mike Bonanno and Andy Bichlbaum are making appearances on the
   opposite ends of the Earth - Bonanno is still lecturing in Europe, while
   Bichlbaum is at the MountainFilm festival in Telluride, Colorado.

   -       Hein Wils of the Stedelijk Museum in Amsterdam tweeted about
   Bonanno lecturing there today.

   -       A German politics website has posted a full 1.5 hour video of
   Bonanno's lecture in Vienna.

   http://ichmachpolitik.at/questions/1163

   -       Huffington Post and a USA Today travel blog both briefly mentioned
   Bichlbaum's presence at the festival in Telluride.

   HuffPo 
   http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jerry-cope/environmental-activism-33_b_867446.html

   USA Today 
   http://travel.usatoday.com/alliance/destinations/venturethere/post/2011/05/Mountainfilm-Inspires/171538/1

   In other media

   -       The UK's Guardian published a commentary by Jonathon Paige on the
   UK Uncut movement, in which he said they need "more spectacle" to "avoid
   becoming the anti-cuts Hare Krishnas, routinely chanting in the high
   street." The Yes Men's BBC/Bhopal hoax, and their more recent
   collaboration with US Uncut in targeting GE, are included in a list of
   "four spectacles that got the message across." The other three are the
   Boston Tea Party of 1773, the poll tax riot in London, 1990, and "the
   Yippies invade Wall Street, 1967."

   http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/may/27/uk-uncut-yes-men-anti-cuts

   -       The Hartford (CT) Advocate newsgroup ran a report this week about
   the Yes Men/US Uncut prank on GE.

   http://www.hartfordadvocate.com/news/national/nh-activists-punk-ge-by-saying-the-company-would-repay-federal-taxes-it-legally-dodged-20110524,0,7485145.story

   -       The current issue of The Progressive magazine has an interview
   with The Yes Men. Text of the article is not currently available.

   Regards,

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-05-27 20:21:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/403310_yes-men-monitoring-05-27-11-.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>403637</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 11-15-11 media
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   The UK Independent published a second article about drug trials in India,
   this one specific to the BMHRC. Writer Nina Lakhani said the information
   sources were "secret reports" showing "drug trials funded by western
   pharmaceutical firms at the Indian hospital set up for survivors of the
   Bhopal disaster violated international ethical standards and could have
   put patients at risk."

   The reports cited are likely documents accessed by ICJB leader Rachna
   Dhingra via RTI requests that have been reported here previously.

   Dow is not mentioned, the article focuses on pharmaceutical companies
   including Theravance, Pfizer, GSK and Sanofi, and the drug trial practices
   at the hospital. Dhingra termed the conduct of the trials "disgusting and
   appalling," and the Bhopal gas survivors who were subjected to the trials
   "doubly victimized." A case study of Ramadhar Shrivastave is included; he
   is the same patient highlighted in recent media items about the drug trial
   controversy.

   http://feeds.bignewsnetwork.com/?rid=201028415&amp;cat=hfu8sjsy4hjfjdha

   -       Daily News &amp; Analysis published a commentary on Monday's broader
   Independent report on drug trials in India. Full text available on
   request.

   Olympics media

   Ummid.com and Siaset published an article by Indian Muslim reporter Pervez
   Bari, who folded together several topics regarding Bhopal.

   He started with the information from the Bhopal and Chennai press
   conferences, listed the 21 former Olympians who signed the ICJB petition,
   and the text of the ICJB . He included expanded comments from Dhingra,
   regarding the UK MPs actions based on "initiative of the BGIA" (Bhopal
   Group for Information and Action).

   After the several comments from Monday's ICJB press statement and one from
   Sarangi, Bari revisited the activist allegations regarding Dow, its
   relationship to and responsibilities for UCC, the polluter pays principle,
   UCC's lease obligation to return the factory site to the MP govt "in its
   original condition," the GoI court petition for Dow to fund the site
   remediation, and the activist claim of double standards and racist
   policies regarding UCC business in the US and India.

   http://ummid.com/news/2011/November/15.11.2011/olymipans_against_dow_chemicals.htm

   Four print editions of Indian papers had short articles, mainly sourced
   from PTI,  on Monday's press conferences, all located in the Sports
   sections and positioned below the fold:

   Hindustan Times' New Delhi and Chandigarh editions, Asian Age New Delhi
   edition, and the Pioneer New Delhi edition. The Pioneer version can be
   read online:

   http://www.dailypioneer.com/sports/20514-singles.html

   ANI issued wire and video reports on Monday's press conferences, which
   appeared on a handful of India media websites. The two reports are much
   the same. Two former Olympic hockey players interviewed, their comments in
   Hindi on the video are subtitled in English. Comments include that if Dow
   has enough money for Olympic sponsorships, they should compensate the
   Bhopal gas victims. A photo of Warren Anderson and others from the 1984
   gas accident are shown at the end over audio stating Dow purchased UCC in
   2001.

   The statements from the two men were included in the ANI print report.

   Text: 
   http://in.news.yahoo.com/ex-indian-olympians-voice-anger-over-dow-chemicals-061826174.html

   Video: 
   http://www.indianexpress.com/video/sports/22/indian-olympians-slam-dow/6602

   UK communist media Morning Star included the Indian Olympians petition
   information in a report on Olympics security concerns.

   http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/news/content/view/full/111936

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-11-15 16:14:31</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/403637_bhopal-update-11-15-11-media-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>404322</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 12-12-11
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   Since email capability has been limited the past few days, here is a recap
   of the weekend media and monitoring results, plus today's new media.

   12/11 AP reported Lord Coe's said in Beijing LOCOG is "comfortable" with
   Dow as the Olympic stadium wrap sponsor and the Bhopal gas tragedy is a
   separate issue. The report had approx. 250 pickups, largely in US media,
   although the Canadian Press Association did pick it up. These include New
   York Times, Washington Post, Washington Examiner, Washington Times, Boston
   Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, San Francisco Examiner, Denver Post, Miami
   Herald, Seattle Times, Bloomberg Business Week, Yahoo! News, FOX News &amp;
   Business, Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Detroit Free Press and at least two
   Michigan television outlets - WNEM TV 5 Saginaw and WILX TV Lansing.

    - Asian Age published the AP article on p10 of Monday's New Delhi
   edition, in the middle of the International page.

   http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia-pacific/head-of-london-2012-olympic-organizing-committee-says-hes-comfortable-with-dows-sponsorship/2011/12/11/gIQAxeGmmO_story.html?wprss=rss_world

   12/12 BBC posted a nearly identical report on Coe's statement. The UK
   Press Association and some Australian media also reported the story.

   http://www.ukbbcnews.com/london-2012-primary-says-he-can-handle-dow-sponsorship.html

    12/11 PTI and UK Morning Star posted articles on Coe's comment, each with
   much the same content as the AP article. Few pickups of the PTI piece so
   far.

   PTI: 
   http://expressbuzz.com/sport/london-olympics-coe-defends-dow-connection/342373.html 

   12/11 The UK Guardian reported on Coe's visit to Beijing and ended with
   four paragraphs on the controversy over Dow's sponsorship. Sports writer
   Owen Gibson framed that part of the article on budgetary issues for LOCOG.
   On the Dow sponsorship, Gibson noted it would be an agenda item on the
   IOA's upcoming meeting.

   http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/dec/11/lord-coe-london-2012-youth

   12/12 PTI  reported IOA secretary general Randhir Singh said the question
   of how to "put forth the sentiments of the people of India against Dow
   Chemical" will be decided by the IOA General Body at its meeting on
   Thursday. He affirmed India will not boycott the games but the IOA may
   write to the IOC.

   When asked about Coe's statement from Beijing of commitment to Dow's
   sponsorship, Singh said he would not comment.

   "Asked about IOC chief Jacques Rogge's comments that India should talk to
   the athletes first before thinking of boycotting the Olympics, Randhir
   said, `Gagan Narang has expressed his view and we are talking to the
   athletes.'" 

   http://www.deccanherald.com/content/211197/gbm-decide-ioas-future-steps.html

   12/12 NDTV reported Satinath Sarangi made a statement today in response to
   Coe's comment in Beijing, and reiterated the gas victims' call for India
   to boycott the games. He called Coe "a mouthpiece for Dow."

   http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/dow-row-bhopal-activist-hits-out-at-london-olympics-organising-committee-chairman-157168 

   12/12 IBNLive posted a 1:49 min video report on the LOCOG and ICJB
   statements, with comment via telephone from Sarangi, who said the gas NGOs
   will meet with the IOA and say, "get a spine" and stand up to LOCOG and
   IOC. He said Coe has never asked the gas victims why Dow is still dealing
   with Bhopal-related issues in India.

   http://ibnlive.in.com/news/london-olympics-panel-backs-dow-as-sponsor/210965-2.html 

   12/10 Times of India reported GoI Sports minister Ajay Maken was asked
   about the Dow sponsorship and replied the IOA has been asked to "stake a
   strong decision on it." He also said it was not up to him to protest.

    - This appeared in the sport sections of Hindustan Times and DNA print
   editions on Saturday. The articles were short and positioned below the
   fold.

   http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/sports/events-tournaments/london-olympics/Maken-asks-IOA-to-take-a-strong-decision-on-Dow-issue/articleshow/11049349.cms

   12/12 PTI reported BJP MP Maya Singh brought up in India's Rajya Sabha the
   question of Dow's Olympic sponsorship and asked her fellow legislators to
   join her in calling for India to boycott the Games over the sponsorship.

   http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/sports/events-tournaments/london-olympics/Will-India-take-part-in-Dow-sponsored-Olympics-BJP-asks-Govt/articleshow/11082198.cms

   12/12 London business media City AM reported the Dow sponsorship issue is
   currently "leading Olympic buzz." The analysis came from BT, "the official
   communications services provider" for the Games.

   http://www.cityam.com/news-and-analysis/olympic-media-buzz-london-2012-partners-6

   12/10 Ted Jeory reported in Express on Sunday that MP Barry Gardiner is
   claiming LOCOG "misled" MPs "over the savings to be made from the [stadium
   wrap] sponsorship contract" and "the entire procurement process is a
   sham." Gardiner is reported to be writing to Culture, Media and Sports
   committee chair John Whittingdale about his concerns. The article claimed
   the Olympic Delivery Authority (ODA) said in October 2010 eliminating the
   wrap would save 7 million pounds, when a vendor had bid the work at about
   1.5 million GBP. "The suspicion is that Dow...was always the favorite.'

   http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/289238/Dow-s-2012-bid-faces-MPs-probe

   12/11 ANI picked up Ted Jeory's Express on Sunday article about Barry
   Gardiner casting doubt on LOCOG's procurement process and whether Dow was
   "always the favourite" for the wrap sponsorship. Half a dozen pickups, DNA
   the only major media.

   http://www.newkerala.com/news/2011/worldnews-124408.html

   12/10 Times of India also reported from Nagpur the stay on transporting
   waste material from the former UCILI factory site has been extended to
   Dec. 19. The stay was extended on a GoI request for more time to file a
   reply to the Maharashtra Pollution Control Board's objections to filing a
   no-objection certificate on the waste material transportation.

   http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/nagpur/Toxic-waste-PIL-deferred-till-Dec-19/articleshow/11053512.cms 

   12/10 IBNS posted a new ICJB press statement announcing the gas NGOs
   marked International Human Rights Day with a march to the MP governor's
   house and presented a memo with six demands relative to the human rights
   of the gas victims. Full text of the press statement, the letter to the
   governor, and the list of demands are attached.

   http://www.indiablooms.com/NewsDetailsPage/2011/newsDetails101211n.php

    

   12/11 IANS reported a Madhya Pradesh government website for the Bhopal gas
   tragedy relief and rehabilitation department "shows old figures" regarding
   the compensation paid to gas victims. The article noted the gas NGOs
   demands for "correct" figures to be used for compensation calculation.
   Sadhna Karnik of the Bhopal Gas Peedith Sangharsh Sahyog Samiti said the
   website content is indicative of "the duel standards of the government"
   and criticized both the Congress and BJP parties for "playing with the
   emotions of the Bhopal tragedy survivors."

   About 15 pickups seen, including Hindustan Times, Economic Times,
   TwoCircles.net and Indian Gazette.

   http://www.hindustantimes.com/India-news/Bhopal/Government-website-on-Bhopal-gas-tragedy-shows-old-figures/Article1-780540.aspx 

   12/11 Guardian/Observer websites in the UK reported architectural (or
   maybe just art) critic Rowan Moore included the decorative wrap of the
   Olympic stadium on a list of the worst architectural ideas of 2011. He
   called the wrap "pointless [and] supplied courtesy of the
   Bhopal-implicated Dow Chemical Company."

   http://www.guardian.co.uk/culture/2011/dec/11/best-architecture-2011-rowan-moore 

   On the activist side,

   12/11  Rachna Dhingra emailed the ICJB press statement about their Human
   Rights Day observances and included a link to a song written to describe
   the "human rights violations" visited upon the protesters at the rail roko
   demonstration. The post on YouTube is nearly 10 minutes long and is
   accompanied by a repetitive slide show of images from the rail roko and
   other commonly used photos from Bhopal.

   12/11 Farah Edwards Khan has made quite the push on Twitter to promote
   Lorraine Close's petition to Lord Coe, which currently has about 10,500
   signatures. "Fareeta" tweeted about the petition to at least 30 Twitter
   users including Jane Fonda, Gloria Steinam and Naomi Klein.

   She also tweeted on Friday "all very quiet on the Dow stadium wrap. is
   this the calm before the storm."

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-12-12 17:41:32</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/404322_bhopal-update-12-12-11-.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>404472</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 12-14-11 IOA media PM
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   Wall Street Journal, BBC, Telegraph, Around The Rings, Morning Star and
   Associated Press all issued reports on Malhotra's statement this morning
   that IOA will call for Dow's Olympic sponsorship to be dropped.

   WSJ reported on the impending IOA meeting, Malhotra's comment about a
   "tainted company" being an "unacceptable" Olympic sponsor, and Dow's
   position on the Bhopal issue.

   http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203893404577098430687092216.html

   BBC reported on the IOA's call for Dow's sponsorship to be dropped, but it
   "stopped short of boycotting the Games, that LOCOG and Coe are
   "comfortable" with the sponsorship and his statement to that end, the
   effigy burning in Bhopal, and quoted Keith Wiggins as part of Dow's
   position on the Bhopal issue.

   http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-16190673

   Telegraph (UK) reporter Jacquelin Magnay wrote in the context of British
   MPs and celebrities calling for LOCOG to withdraw Dow's sponsorship, and
   supporting the campaign by signing the most active petition (although not
   identified as Lorrain Close's change.org effort). Malhotra's statement
   from this morning is included, prefacing comments by Gardiner questioning
   LOCOG's procurement process. The Sustainability Commission's findings
   validating the process are also noted. The article ends with two lists of
   names, about 20 celebrities and 28 politicians, who have signed on to
   support the campaign against Dow.

   http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/olympics/8956176/London-2012-Olympics-British-politicians-demand-London-drops-Dow-as-Olympic-Stadium-sponsor.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&amp;utm_medium=twitter

   Associated Press issued a short wire report that is very similar to the
   initial PTI article this morning in quotes from Malhotra on the Olympic
   ideals of "love, brotherhood and transparency." It briefly described the
   Bhopal gas accident, Dow's position regarding it and Coe's support of Dow
   as an Olympic sponsor. The piece ends by noting Gardiner indicated "the
   Indian committee's opposition should lead organizers to rethink the
   sponsorship plans."

   True to form for an AP release, there have been about 100 pickups since
   early afternoon, mainly in the US and including ABC News, CBS News,
   Washington Post, Washington Examiner, Boston Globe, San Francisco
   Chronicle, Seattle Times, Seattle Post-Intelligencer, Minneapolis
   Star-Tribune, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, CBS Marketwatch, SI.com, CNN,
   Yahoo! News, Breitbart, Salon.com, Huffington Post, and numerous broadcast
   and regional media outlets.

   http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/india-olympic-body-london-games-cut-dow-15154756

   Around the Rings reported from the AFP article, quoting Malhotra as
   planning to "express our displeasure" to LOCOG and ask for Dow's
   sponsorship to be dropped. Both Dow and the activist positions are stated
   briefly. IOC secretary general Randhir Singh said the "sentiments of the
   people...cannot be ignored." Sher Khan's call for boycotting the Games is
   included, as is Malhotra's assurance of no boycott.

   http://www.aroundtherings.com/articles/view.aspx?id=38784

   Morning Star, UK communist media, quoted from the initial PTI report and
   titled it: "India asks London to throw out Dow." Malhotra's intent for the
   IOA to coordinate with the GoI on the issue is included, as is Dow's
   position on the Bhopal issue, and Coe's support of Dow as an Olympic
   sponsor. The piece ends by noting Tessa Jowell's position that "Dow should
   withdraw from sponsorship of the wrap."

   http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/index.php/news/content/view/full/113146

   The Guardian reported Barry Gardiner has written to Culture, Media and
   Sport minister John Whittingdale calling for an "urgent inquiry" into the
   stadium wrap procurement process. Gardiner contended "a simple Google
   search would have revealed numerous other cases that showed that Dow could
   only be a significant reputational risk to the London 2012 Games." The
   article simply noted "demonstrations" against Dow's sponsorship have
   occurred, and the IOA said it will ask LOCOG to drop Dow's sponsorship.

   http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/dec/14/london-2012-dow-chemical-mp-inquiry

   IANS issued a brief quote from Aslam Sher Khan from a telephone contact,
   in which he sympathized with the Olympic athletes for wanting to make use
   of their training investments, but "being a Bhopali," believed India
   should not participate in an Olympics with Dow sponsorship. Very limited
   pickup seen.

   http://sports.ndtv.com/othersports/othersports/item/182405-dont-participate-in-london-olympics-aslam-sher-khan

   Other media today include:

    - IBNS hosted an online chat with Satinath Sarangi and Rachna Dhingra on
   the Dow sponsorship and "India's stance." The Dec. 12 discussion covered
   about two dozen questions from participants. Sarangi and Dhingra's answers
   are not surprising and do not reveal any new information.

   http://ibnlive.in.com/chat/view/764.html

    - PTI and UNI reported on Nagpur MP Muttemwar's concern over the GoI plan
   to dispose of the Bhopal factory waste at the DRDO facility, and that he
   has written to PM Singh to "draw his attention towards the issue."

   PTI 
   http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/wire-news/planned-incinerationbhopal-toxic-wastenagpur-opposed_633525.html

   UNI 
   http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/nagpur/Muttemwar-opposes-Bhopal-toxins-entry/articleshow/11101735.cms

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-12-14 22:58:14</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/404472_bhopal-update-12-14-11-ioa-media-pm-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>404643</id>
    <title>Re: CORP: Bhopal 25 coming up
</title>
    <description>   Maybe the Yes Men were the pinnacle.  They made an argument in their way
   on their terms -- that this is a corporate problem and a part of the a
   larger whole that the Yes Men work.  They're the only anti-corporate group
   that has joined with the Bhopal groups.

   Where is SCI or RAN or even Greenpeace on this?  On one hand, the EHF
   folks haven't found a way to branch out beyond occasional AI mentions, but
   at the same time, the larger anti-corporate movement has avoided Bhopal
   very nicely.  Will Chevron get the same pass? 

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Joseph de Feo" &lt;defeo@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Bart Mongoven" &lt;mongoven@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "Kathleen Morson" &lt;morson@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, November 9, 2009 11:06:36 AM GMT -05:00 US/Canada Eastern
   Subject: Re: CORP: Bhopal 25 coming up

   The professional anti-Dow types have made a slight nod toward expanded
   activity, but never followed through on it -- the idea of "other Bhopals"
   that were the fault of Dow or others. For the past few years it has mostly
   just been a spot on a website occasionally updated with a blog post about
   different multinationals elsewhere in India (e.g., the SIPCOT work by the
   Global Community Monitor affiliates). Now I don't even think blog posts go
   up there anymore.

   One area in which you might argue the Dow campaign has been successful was
   in the R&amp;D site battle outside Pune. Dow had to change its plans. But that
   wasn't really a result of the Bhopal-based activists' strategic skills; it
   seems they mostly provided one more weapon (the Bhopal issue) and likely
   some small amount of funding that helped propel/prolong a campaign that
   was going to be difficult for Dow just because of the religious
   associations of the area near the site  and political gain to be had by
   pandering to some locals in an election year. The Dow people could try to
   repeat that elsewhere, but I'm not sure they'd find the perfect storm
   again.

   The Yes Men had their London "B'eau Pal" stunt in London, but again, that
   wasn't any indication of an expansion. Same issue and complaints,
   statement urging people to check out the Bhopal Medical Appeal.

   Bart Mongoven wrote:

     We're only a month away from the 25th anniversary of Bhopal.  The
     objective of the Dow Campaign, as far as I can tell, has been the same
     as the upcoming RAN Chevron campaign -- to make an impossible demand
     upon a major multinational in order to bring attention to the
     fundamental problems with laws relating to corporate accountability. 

     With less than a month to go, you'd think that the major players --
     especially Amnesty -- would have branched out from Bhopal to make a
     broader set of issues.  I don't see any evidence of it.  AI Canada
     included Bhopal in a Demand Dignity release in September.  The
     intenrational secretariat has a small link on its website.  That's all
     I've seen outside of the dedicated anti-Dow establishment -- those
     groups paid to hate Dow (PANNA, SfB). 

     The anger is legitimate and the campaign framing has been done pretty
     well.  If they can't manage to use the 25th anniversary to broaden the
     issue, they probably won't be able to.  They may as well just let Dow or
     some proxy clean the site because keeping the site unremediated hasn't
     helped the anti-corproate cause; hasn't much helped the anti-Dow cause;
     and probably isn't doing a heck of a lot of good for the Bhopalis on
     whose behalf the activists claim to be working.

     The Chevron campaign is remarkably similar in its unrealistic demand. 
     Is it a follow up or an admission that the first thrust failed?

     Am I missing a node of activity or a major campaign that is to come? 
     Has the Dow campaign been more successful than I think?
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/404643_re-corp-bhopal-25-coming-up-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>morson@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>defeo@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mongoven@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>404678</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 12-06-11
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   The Reuters article reported earlier does not appear to have gotten much
   more pickup at this time.

   In other media

    - Channel 4 News posted a brief article and video report on India
   protesting Dow's Olympic sponsorship. The text article contained the basic
   items about the IOA, LOCOG and Dow statements. The video, however included
   an approximately 4-minute interview of Tessa Jowell by Channel 4 news
   reader Jon Snow. Snow asked if Jowell had "seen this problem coming," to
   which she replied by describing events of her trip to India last week.
   Jowell was to have spoken at a sports conference but was cancelled, she
   thinks because the GoI was afraid she would use that platform to talk
   about Bhopal and Dow. She said she would not have done so.

   Jowell said she met with "a number of people who are concerned, including
   the senior counsel for the Indian government on the Indian Olympic
   Association issue and the five NGOs."

   Snow prompted her about the original question, and Jowell began to list
   "options," including that Dow could withdraw since the wrap was only to
   "enhance the appearance of the stadium for television." On further
   prompting, she admitted she did not know about the sponsorship until
   September and has "been pursuing it ever since."

   http://www.channel4.com/news/indian-government-protests-dow-olympic-sponsorship

   India's Siaset Daily posted a lengthy article by Pervez Bari about Aslam
   Sher Khan making statements to the press about writing to Sonia Gandhi,
   Barry Gardiner, Keith Vaz and Tessa Jowell about the Dow sponsorship. The
   letter to Gandhi, which was copied to "all the members of the Congress
   Working Committee," called for IOA to make a formal protest to LOCOG. To
   the British MPs, Sher Khan offered his support and had a reply from Vaz.
   He called for Indian MPs to "take up the issue," as have the UK MPs, and
   claimed he would "not hesitate to don the (anti-corruption) role of Anna
   Hazare in getting proper justice to the victims and survivors...." He also
   said he will bring up the Bhopal issue "in a big way at the former
   Olympians meeting" as part of the Dec. 15 IOA meeting.

    - PTI and UNI also reported more briefly from Sher Khan's press event.

   http://www.siasat.com/english/news/ex-olympian-aslam-sher-writes-sonia-dow-chemical-sponsorship-london-olympics

   Business Standard reported IOA executive board members C P Singh Deo and
   Parsh Nath Mukherjee said the Dow sponsorship issue is not on the agenda
   for the IOA's 12/15 meeting, that the issue is being handled by the
   government and is not up to the IOA to address.

   http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/dow-as-games-sponsor-no-reason-to-boycott-olympics/457726/

   The UK's Guardian reported both Rachna Dhingra and Barry Gardiner made
   statements about the IOA's message to the IOC. Dhingra said the NGOs had
   asked for that action six months ago, and "welcome it, but it needs to go
   further." Gardiner said the GoI and IOA "have done the right thing by
   standing up to Dow's involvement.... LOCOG must realize that this issue
   will not go away, and the longer they leave the decision to kick out Dow
   the larger the protests will grow."

   No online article, full text available on request.

   The Guardian also published a commentary by Richard Williams criticizing
   the stadium wrap, Dow's sponsorship and quoting BMA activist Lorraine
   Close in describing contaminated water and surroundings in Bhopal. Readers
   are encouraged to sign Close's change.org petition asking Lord Coe to drop
   Dow's sponsorship.

   http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2011/dec/05/london-olympics-dow-bhopal-legacy?newsfeed=true

   Several Indian media outlets published further reporting on the IOA's
   statement on Monday to the IOC and LOCOG:

    - Telegraph India reported the part of the concern over Dow's sponsorship
   is its position as an IOC partner through the 2020 Games, for which India
   had planned to bid. It also reported the letter to IOA from the Sports
   ministry was written by Rahul Bhatnagar, a joint secretary at the
   ministry.

   http://www.telegraphindia.com/1111206/jsp/nation/story_14844874.jsp

    - The Hindu and NDTV also reported India would like to bid to host a
   future Games, and has asked the "Indian mission in London to get more
   details from the organizers" about Dow's sponsorship. Hindu noted Liveris
   is an India-US CEO Forum member, "but has stayed away from the
   meetings...due to the sensitivities involved."

   Hindu  http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article2689249.ece

   NDTV 
   http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/dows-olympics-sponsorship-row-govt-can-take-up-the-issue-if-needed-says-maken-155693

    - Times of India and PTI reported Sports Minister A J Maken urged the IOC
   to "consider the sentiments" involving Bhopal and Dow, said he "won't let
   Bhopal down," and that it "would be embarrassing that on one hand we are
   asking for extradition of [Warren Anderons] and on the other hand we are
   partnering with those people."

   ToI 
   http://www.timesnow.tv/Wont-let-Bhopal-down-says-Maken/articleshow/4390681.cms

   PTI 
   http://news.oneindia.in/2011/12/06/consider-sentiments-of-bhopal-gas-victims-maken-to-ioc.html

   Express News Service, SportzPower, Economic Times and the Statesman also
   posted reports on the IOA statement.

   CNN-IBN reported the Madhya Pradesh Human Rights Commission criticized the
   MP government for the "police brutality on protesting Bhopal gas victims"
   and asked to be given a detailed report on the violence.

   http://ibnlive.in.com/news/hrc-pulls-up-mp-govt-for-lathicharge-on-gas-victims/209115-3.html

   IBNS reported the ICJB issued a press statement condemning the violence at
   the rail roko and stating they will perform their own enquiry into the
   matter, "presided over by a retired judge of the High Court or Supreme
   Court." They have called again for the release of all 14 men still in
   police custody and said they will help survivors "gather evidence and
   initiate formal proceedings against those responsible for the violence,
   including the police." The NGOs apologized to the media people who were
   injured. The article was not available for online access, full text
   available on request.

   The Pioneer, however, reported Abdul Jabbar and the BGPMUS said the ICJB
   NGOs are partly responsible for Saturday's violence. He criticized the
   state government for not fulfilling projects and programs it promised to
   the gas victims.

   http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/bhopal/25751-organisations-divided-over-rail-roko-incident.html

   A second Pioneer article reported Congress Party Member of Parliament
   (Ujjain) Premchand Guddu filed a memorandum with the MP government saying
   the state is "responsible for all that happened on Saturday." He said the
   police and state officials had plenty of prior notice the rail roko was
   planned.

   http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/bhopal/25749-cong-mp-demands-high-level-probe-into-rail-roko-incident.html

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-12-06 19:28:35</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/404678_bhopal-update-12-06-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>406677</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 04-21-11
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   There does not appear to be new media on the SC hearings on the curative
   petitions.

   -       The Times News Network papers reported people in India seeking
   compensation from companies will have to pay 1% of the amount being
   sought, to the GoI's Environment Ministry as a fee for the National Green
   Tribunal. The article used the Bhopal gas accident victims as an example.
   People who fall below the Poverty Line will not be subject to the fees.

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/environment/pollution/victims-to-pay-for-demanding-compensation-from-polluters/articleshow/8042532.cms

   -       Daily News &amp; Analysis reported "[Shiv] Sena has a history of
   hijacking issues" to suit the party's own ends. This article actually
   reports on the Jaitapur Nuclear Power Plant issue, not the WikiLeaks
   exposure of alleged Shiv Sena involvement with Dow's Pune R&amp;D center
   project. However, the R&amp;D center issue is used as an example of the party
   "hijacking" issues.

   http://www.dnaindia.com/mumbai/report_shiv-sena-has-history-of-hijacking-issues_1534249

   -       The Hindu reported several well-known activists, including Bhopal
   NGO leader Satinath Sarangi, are going to be on a "yatra" from Tarapur to
   Jaitapur on April 23-25 as an anti-nuclear protest.

   http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article1707645.ece

   -       Huntington News, a WV media outlet, published a review of Diane
   Wilson's new book,  Diary of an Eco-Outlaw. The book is said to include a
   description of her "Bhopal protest" of climbing a cooling tower at Dow's
   Seadrift plant in 2002.

   http://www.huntingtonnews.net/3439

   In activist resources:

   -       ICJB activist Dharmesh Shah emailed to the group's distribution
   lists the 4/19 Hindustan Times article on the Nationalist Congress Party
   calling for an investigation of Shiv Sena MP Shivajirao Adhalrao Patil
   over WikiLeaks reporting he was "involved" with Dow on establishing the
   Pune R&amp;D center project.

   -       ICJB's India co-ordinator Rachna Dhingra is scheduled to return to
   the US as a keynote speaker for the AID US annual conference on May 28-30
   in Boston. There is only one session specifically noted so far where she
   will speak, on Saturday, May 28. The topic is "Justice for Bhopal."

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-04-21 19:54:56</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/406677_bhopal-update-04-21-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>407397</id>
    <title>FW: Client working list
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-04-23 16:48:48</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/407397_fw-client-working-list-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/5/5728_image001.png</path><size>10140</size><md5></md5><sha1>b9e56aa337655bf9d36595302d82ffa17d3cf9c6</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/37/37035_client list.xls</path><size>29184</size><md5></md5><sha1>a28bd03dc5895e16ef1ef634c8a207ba862b74c7</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>407784</id>
    <title>DOW CONFIDENTIAL: Bhopal Monitoring Report Friday, November 18, 2011
</title>
    <description>Contact AIM for more Information                                                                                                                                                                                             
Significant Activist Activity                                                                                                                                                                                                
 11/14 Bhopal, Chennai press events announce ICJB petition to LOCOG signed by 22 Indian ex-Olympians                                                                                                                         
 11/15 BMA/Amnesty/Labour Friends of India press event in London opposed Dow sponsorship                                                                                                                                     
 11/16-17 BMA: Heavily tweeted link to Guardian poll "Should Olympic chiefs dump Dow?"                                                                                                                                       
 PAN Int'l "people's tribunal" 12/3-6 to "indict" agrichemical companies for "gross violations of human rights"                                                                                                              
Media                                                                                                                                                                                                                        
 Olympics sponsorship media summary                                                                                                                                                                                          
 11/14 AP, India media: Bhopal, Chennai press conferences by ex-Olympians opposing Dow sponsorship                                                                                                                           
 11/15-18 Global media: London Olympics - Coe defends LOCOG, Dow; BMA et al press event opposes sponsorship                                                                                                                  
 11/15-18 Local media: MDN, MLive, WNEM; UK local letters and columns                                                                                                                                                        
 11/14 Saginaw News: Reporter questions whether Bhopal "shadow" affects Dow                                                                                                                                                  
 11/12 Hindustan Times: GoI cancelled registrations for four Dow Agrosciences products                                                                                                                                       
 11/15 Ummid: Pervez Bari article on Olympics and standing activist allegations against Dow                                                                                                                                  
 11/18 IANS, Telegraph: Greenpeace, "Bhopal survivors" object to new nuclear civil liabilities rules                                                                                                                         
 11/14 Asian Voice: Keith Vaz interview of Colin Toogood on Bhopal and BMA                                                                                                                                                   
 11/14-11/17 Independent, Socialist Party UK: BMHRC drug trials commentary                                                                                                                                                   
 11/17 Hard News: activist RTI requests GoI documents on Anderson extradition                                                                                                                                                
 11/18 Derby Evening Telegraph: Animal's People review                                                                                                                                                                       
Activist Activity                                                                                                                                                                                                            
 Bhopali film: Screenings scheduled in Amsterdam, Toronto, London, NYC, Pittsburgh, Boston                                                                                                                                   
 ICJB website: new front page layout; Rail Roko information/justification                                                                                                                                                    
 BMA website: media items on Dow's Olympic sponsorship; play day for Chingari Trust children                                                                                                                                 
 Amnesty: Bhopal presentation slides for Group 133; Annual Write-A-Thon on Dec. 11                                                                                                                                           
 Change.org petition now over 1,000 signatures                                                                                                                                                                               
 Activist email: Dhingra, Edwards send media items to Remember-Bhopal list                                                                                                                                                   
 AID: new chapter at George Washington Univ.                                                                                                                                                                                 
 Message boards: Games Monitor; Chennai and Delhi enviro groups                                                                                                                                                              
 Blogs: BMA volunteer Ian Jarvis updates on life at clinic                                                                                                                                                                   
 Social media: BMA Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube; anti-Dow Olympics Facebook                                                                                                                                                
 Yes Men: Yes Lab actions at APEC in Hawai'i; Bonanno to conduct Yes Lab in Sweden 12/14-16; Mark Rudd at Yes Lab 11/17                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/14 Bhopal, Chennai press events announce ICJB petition to LOCOG signed by 22 Indian ex-Olympians                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
The International Campaign for Justice in Bhopal and former Indian Olympic hockey players coordinated press conferences in Bhopal and Chennai to announce at least 22 athletes had signed the ICJB's petition to Olympics    
officials and PM Singh calling for Dow's Olympic sponsorship to be dropped, or for India to boycott the London Games.                                                                                                        
The ICJB press statement quoted representatives of the five Bhopal activist groups &amp; NGOs - Safreen Khan, Rachna Dhingra, Rashida Bee, Balkrishna Namdeo and Nawab Khan.                                                     
The Olympians statement recommended: "national and international Olympians should oppose the unholy alliance with the poisoner of Bhopal." The Olympians who participated in the press conferences were:                     
 - In Bhopal: Inam - Ur - Rehman, B P Govinda, Syed Ali and Jalaluddin Rizvi.                                                                                                                                                
 - In Chennai: Vasudevan Baskaran and Charles Cornelius                                                                                                                                                                      
The AP and Indian media reported on the press conferences, as indicated in the media section below.                                                                                                                          
The ICJB's press statement, the petition addressed to Olympic officials, and the list of athletes who have signed it are attached.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/15 BMA/Amnesty/Labour Friends of India press event in London opposed Dow sponsorship                                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Bhopal Medical Appeal, Amnesty Int'l and the Labour Friends of India held a press event in London to publicize their opposition to Dow's Olympic stadium wrap sponsorship.                                                   
A preview of the press release was posted on Google Docs and distributed a few days prior via Twitter to several media and activist contacts.                                                                                
BMA tweeted the link to 11 other Twitter users: NDTV; Olympics watchdog blog Games Monitor and its administrator Julian Cheyne; anti-corporate activists Adbusters; environmental and legal activists EarthRights            
International; environmental/anti-pesticide contacts: This Is Ecocide; Shift Soil; No Mo Pesticides; Pesty Pesticides; and AntiDrifters; and the London Olympics Information account (The announcement tweet not displayed   
on that page).                                                                                                                                                                                                               
The press release was phrased in quite inflammatory terms, including the title of "Growing scandal over Olympic stadium sponsor" and that Dow "having been recently found guilty of SERIOUS MALPRACTICE [emphasis            
theirs]...cannot be considered an appropriate sponsor of the London Olympics stadium."                                                                                                                                       
Representatives of the "cross-party" coalition appearing at the event were MP and Labour Friends of India leader Barry Gardiner, and Tim and Farah Edwards of BMA. The press release promised "the great-great-granddaughter 
of the last "Begum of Bhopal (the Bhopal Royal Family) and herself a survivor of the Bhopal disaster." This is presumably Mrs. Edwards.                                                                                      
Considerable global media coverage of the press conference ensued, much of it folded into reports on Lord Coe's testimony before Parliament's Culture, Media and Sports Committee, as indicated in the media reporting       
below.                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
The activist coalition press statement is attached.                                                                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/16-17 BMA: Heavily tweeted link to Guardian poll "Should Olympic chiefs dump Dow?"                                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
UK media the Guardian posted an online poll in its sports section asking "Should Olympic chiefs dump Dow?"                                                                                                                   
BMA sent numerous tweets urging recipients to "Vote to dump Dow" on the poll, sending more than 50 messages in a few hours, and several more before the poll closed.                                                         
Final poll results: 91.6% thought Dow should be removed as a sponsor.                                                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Three comments were also posted on the poll page, all critical of Dow. One of the comments was from Pesticide Action Network UK (PAN-UK), which named EDF as another Olympic sponsor considered "dodgy."                     
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/poll/2011/nov/15/olympics-2012-dow?fb=native                                                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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PAN Int'l "people's tribunal" 12/3-6 to "indict" agrichemical companies for "gross violations of human rights"                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/16 The Ecologist, a member of the UK's Guardian media network, reported Pesticide Action Network Int'l announced a "Permanent People's Tribunal" (PPT) session will be held from Dec. 3-6 "to indict Agrochemical         
Transnationals for gross violations of human rights."                                                                                                                                                                        
The targeted companies and organizations are:                                                                                                                                                                                
Dow, Monsanto, DuPont, Bayer CropSciences, Syngenta, BASF, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Trade Organization.                                                                                
PAN has a website dedicated to the PPT session, with a case summary and a petition to sign with a goal of 10,000 signatures by Dec. 3. The petition currently has about 430 signatures.                                      
This refers visitors to PAN Asia Pacific contact and social media resources. The case summary is attached.                                                                                                                   
http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/1122020/monsanto_bayer_and_dow_face_trial_for_systematic_human_rights_abuses.html                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/17  PAN UK posted similar documents with a few more details, including giving Bangalore, India as the location for the PPT session, and identifying some "legal experts" and scientists who are named to the "jury."      
These are Gurdial Singh Nijjar, Director of the Centre of Excellence for Biodiversity Law at the University Malaya; Pananchand Jain, retired Rajasthan High Court Justice; and Upendra Baxi, former President of the Indian  
Society of International Law.[and] scientists and experts such as Dr. Ricarda A. Steinbrecher, a biologist and geneticist with the German Federation of Scientists."                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/18 PAN North America (PANNA) also posted an announcement and executive summary of the planned PPT. The executive summary is closest in format and content to the PAN UK version, with the main exception of offering      
U.S.-based individuals as available for interviews:                                                                                                                                                                          
 - Kathyrn Gilje, PANNA co-director                                                                                                                                                                                          
 - Jeannie Economos, Farmworker Association of Florida                                                                                                                                                                       
 - Paige Tomaselli, Center for Food Safety                                                                                                                                                                                   
 - Viola Waghiyi, Alaska Community Action on Toxics                                                                                                                                                                          
 - Ana Duncan Pardo, Toxic Free NC                                                                                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Any or all of the remaining documents are available on request.                                                                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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Olympics sponsorship media summary                                                                                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Global media reporting on Dow's sponsorship of the London Olympic stadium wrap ran heavily from Monday, 11/14, through Wednesday, 11/16. Reports began with the Indian activist and athletes press events in Bhopal and      
Chennai, then moved to London with reports first on Lord Coe's testimony before Parliament's Culture, Media and Sport committee, and followed by the "cross-party" activist coalition press event.                           
 - Associated Press reports led the rmedia all three days, with global pickups each time. Washington Post, Boston Globe, NBC Sports and FOX Sports were the main U.S. major media outlets to use the piece. Regional leading 
media pickups include Detroit News, San Francisco Chronicle, along with numerous U.S. and Canadian broadcast and media websites.  The initial report from London contained an error, stating Dow had purchased the Union     
Carbide plant in Bhopal in 2001. An updated version of the story corrected the statement.                                                                                                                                    
 - UK major media the Independent, Guardian, BBC and Channel 4 reported on the London events, as did wire services UK Press Association, PTI, IANS and ANI, and UK communist media Morning Star.                             
 - Agence France Presse issued a wire story, but received limited pickup.                                                                                                                                                    
 - The Hindu was the only Indian major media to publish a print report on the London events.                                                                                                                                 
 - Several video reports on the London events were broadcast, including Channel 4, Al Jazeera, and NewsXLive. These invariably began with the activist coalition event at the Olympic stadium, and included on-camera        
comments from Barry Gardiner, Farah or Tim Edwards.                                                                                                                                                                          
 - IOC news website Around The Rings has published updates on the events, as well.                                                                                                                                           
 - Local pickups included Midland Daily News, MLive.com and WNEM television.                                                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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11/14 AP, India media: Bhopal, Chennai press conferences by ex-Olympians opposing Dow sponsorship                                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Associated Press reported "at least 21" Indian Olympians called for LOCOG to drop Dow's sponsorship, calling it "offensive to the spirit of the Olympic Games." The only person quoted by AP was Safreen Khan of Children    
Against Dow-Carbide, who said "hundreds of children are being born disabled" and blamed Dow for the lack of remediation in Bhopal. LOCOG was noted as standing firm on the Dow sponsorship, and Dow's position on the Bhopal 
issue was given. The article noted Dow's India office referred inquiries to the US headquarters.                                                                                                                             
http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/45284750                                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
IBNS issued the closest iteration of the ICJB press release, as usual. Three Olympians appeared at the press conference in Bhopal: "Inam - Ur - Rehman, B P Govinda, Syed Ali and Jalaluddin Rizvi," and said, "national and 
international Olympians should oppose the unholy alliance with the poisoner of Bhopal. "                                                                                                                                     
Representatives of the five Bhopal activist groups &amp; NGOs were quoted - Safreen Khan, Rachna Dhingra, Rashida Bee, Balkrishna Namdeo and Nawab Khan. Bee said neither PM Singh's office nor the Indian Olympic Association   
have responded or acted on the ICJB's request that they contact LOCOG and demand Dow's sponsorship be dropped.                                                                                                               
http://www.newkerala.com/news/2011/worldnews-106332.html                                                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
PTI reported from Chennai that Hockey Olympians Vasudevan Baskaran and Charles Cornelius held a press conference in conjunction with the ICJB's press event in Bhopal.                                                       
http://www.newkerala.com/news/2011/worldnews-106332.html                                                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
UNI quoted Bhopal activist leader Sarangi, saying it is "unfortunate" neither the GoI or "IOC" [mistake for IOA?] were taking any action, while UK MPs are protesting the sponsorship. He also said efforts are being made   
to "rope in more Olympians - including from other countries - in the campaign to protest Dow's sponsorship."                                                                                                                 
http://news.webindia123.com/news/Articles/India/20111114/1871539.html                                                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Yahoo! India News posted a video report by NBS News of the Bhopal press conference. The 1:45 minute clip showed several men sitting at a table in front of microphones while the reporter voice over explained the           
situation. Sarangi and "sports person" Syed Ali were interviewed on camera but both spoke in Hindi. The clip is titled "Bhopal tragedy shadow over London Olympics."                                                         
http://in.news.yahoo.com/video/national-22564751/bhopal-tragedy-shadow-over-london-olympics-27248836.html#crsl=%252Fvideo%252Fnational-22564751%252Fbhopal-tragedy-shadow-over-london-olympics-27248836.html                 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Around the Rings posted a report on the press conferences.                                                                                                                                                                   
http://www.aroundtherings.com/articles/view.aspx?id=38505                                                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
UK communist media Morning Star included the Indian Olympians petition information in a report on Olympics security concerns.                                                                                                
http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/news/content/view/full/111936                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/15 Four print editions of Indian papers had short articles, mainly sourced from PTI, on the press conferences, all located in the Sports sections and positioned below the fold: Hindustan Times' New Delhi and           
Chandigarh editions, Asian Age New Delhi edition, and the Pioneer New Delhi edition.                                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/15 ANI issued similar wire and video reports on the press conferences. Two former Olympic hockey players were interviewed, with English subtitles on their comments in Hindi, including if Dow has enough money for       
Olympic sponsorships, they should compensate the Bhopal gas victims. A photo of Warren Anderson and others from the 1984 gas accident were at the end over audio stating Dow purchased UCC in 2001.                          
The statements from the two men were included in the ANI print report.                                                                                                                                                       
Text: http://in.news.yahoo.com/ex-indian-olympians-voice-anger-over-dow-chemicals-061826174.html                                                                                                                             
Video: http://www.indianexpress.com/video/sports/22/indian-olympians-slam-dow/6602                                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/16 The Hindu and Times of India published reports on Monday's press conferences. The ToI article inferred the 1984 gas tragedy played a part in Bhopal producing fewer star hockey players than prior to the accident,    
and quoted Salim Abassi about not recovering from the gas effects that "may have cut short" his athletic career.                                                                                                             
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bhopal/Hockey-stars-decry-DOW-move-to-sponsor-Olympics/articleshow/10749075.cms                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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11/15-18 Global media: London Olympics - Coe defends LOCOG, Dow; BMA et al press event opposes sponsorship                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
AP reported Lord Coe testified at a Parliament hearing of the Culture, Media and Sport committee and stated LOCOG's commitment to and confidence in Dow as an Olympic sponsor and its ethics. This report did not mention    
the planned activist protest in London. Global pickups trended through mid-day U.S. time to more than 100 pickups.                                                                                                           
http://news.yahoo.com/london-olympic-organizers-wont-scrap-dow-deal-145242640.html                                                                                                                                           
 - An update was issued mid-afternoon to correct the third sentence stating Dow purchased the UCIL factory in Bhopal in 2001.                                                                                                
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2011/11/15/sports/s065232S11.DTL&amp;type=business                                                                                                                              
 - A shorter version was also seen: http://www.mlive.com/newsflash/index.ssf/story/london-olympic-organizers-wont-scrap-dow-deal/e9f9eec28189496ba544ed04469c081f                                                            
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Several other sources issued reports, including BBC, AFP, the UK Press Association (UKAP), Channel 4, Guardian, the Labour Party and Morning Star UK.                                                                        
BBC issued two articles, one primarily on Coe's Parliamentary testimony to the Culture, Media and Sport Committee, the other on the activist protest and press release.                                                      
-   The Coe article included a brief background on Dow, the stadium wrap and Dow's purchase of UCC. Coe stated his satisfaction that Dow did not have any functional connection to the UCIL facility, and the Indian Supreme 
Court "upheld on two previous occasions" the validity of UCC's settlement for the Bhopal gas accident. Keith Vaz and Tessa Jowell voicing their concerns to Coe was also noted. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15745449  
-   The protest article is longer and quoted Sarangi for the Bhopal Group for Information and Action (BGIA), former Olympic hockey player Aslam Sher Khan, and unidentified Dow and Games 2012 spokespersons. Sarangi called 
Dow's sponsorship "an dance on the graves of Bhopal gas victims" and promised "protest rallies in Bhopal, Delhi and London if necessary." Khan said India should "lodge a strong protest," and he had written to the Indian  
Olympic Association, PM Singh and the Sports ministry.                                                                                                                                                                       
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-14443516                                                                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Agence France Presse reported Coe "defended" the Dow sponsorship, stated 15,000 as the death toll from the Bhopal gas tragedy, and that "Dow bought Union Carbide in 2001 and has ever since denied responsibility" for the  
gas accident. The opposition by "several Indian athletes" and Jowell's "concern" preface a quote from Coe that he is "the grandson of an Indian so I am not completely unaware" of the Bhopal issue, but stands by the       
sponsorship. Times of India is the only known pickup of this article at this time.                                                                                                                                           
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/sports/events-tournaments/london-olympics/Olympics-Coe-defends-Dow-deal-in-face-of-Bhopal-protests/articleshow/10744820.cms                                                               
 - UK Press Association's version was very similar to the AFP wire report.                                                                                                                                                   
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5jbFhQthLXTmph8I12FZbBxBxBa-Q?docId=B35046781321366580A00                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Channel 4 UK news provided background on the wrap deal, the Bhopal accident and Dow's position on Bhopal. It introduced the campaign by a "cross-party coalition of MPs, survivors and Indian Olympians" opposing Dow's      
sponsorship, and mentioned the IOC's support of the sponsorship. MP Barry Gardiner, Chair of Labour Friends of India, and the leader of the activist coalition admitted LOCOG "had set high environmental, social and        
ethical standards," but called the Dow contract decision "a mistake and it must be set right."  This article tried to name the Dow spokesperson "Scott Walker" as the source of Dow's position statement.                    
http://www.channel4.com/news/row-over-olympic-sponsors-bhopal-links                                                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
The Guardian posted a report on the wrap sponsorship issue and an online sports poll asking "Should Olympic chiefs ditch Dow?"  .                                                                                            
The article drew mainly from Coe's hearing testimony and questions from other MPs. Coe told the panel he had met with Vaz and Jowell, but "insisted he had not heard anything" from the Indian Olympic Committee about a     
potential boycott by India's athletes. Conservative MP Louise Mensch called LOCOG's decision on the Dow sponsorship "very worrying," to which Coe responded LOCOG had "looked at the issue very carefully" and cited Dow's   
IOC global partner status.                                                                                                                                                                                                   
MP Steve Rotheram asked "whether Dow could be replaced if the company did the 'honourable thing' and withdrew from sponsoring the wrap, the Locog chief executive, Paul Deighton, said it was 'getting very late' to do so   
and had no indication that the company would pull out."                                                                                                                                                                      
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/nov/15/olympic-dow-sponsorship-protests-mps http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/poll/2011/nov/15/olympics-2012-dow?newsfeed=true                                                            
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
The Labour Party reported just Tessa Jowell's three points of concern she says "Dow Chemical needs to urgently answer":                                                                                                      
-  Is Dow's conduct since the UCC acquisition "consistent with the Olympics' sustainability aims?"                                                                                                                           
-  Did LOCOG seek input from other groups than Dow on the Bhopal issue?                                                                                                                                                      
-  "...even if Dow win their legal battles against Bhopal survivors and the Indian Government, is there a reputational risk to London 2012 in their sponsorship of the Olympic Stadium wrap?""                               
http://www.labour.org.uk/dow-chemical-needs-to-answer-questions-regarding-bhopal,2011-11-15                                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
UK communist media Morning Star posted a brief report on LOCOG's commitment to Dow's sponsorship, the "Indian athletes and rights organizations" letters to LOCOG, and Dow's position on the Bhopal issue.                   
http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/news/content/view/full/111989                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/16 The Guardian published a report on the activist coalition press statement, with a little more detail on the activist groups and the campaign itself. The groups described Coe as "stonewalling" questions about the    
sponsorship. Coe's responses to the questions on the selection process and Dow's compliance with LOCOG requirements are also included. This article does not appear to be currently available online; full text available on 
request.                                                                                                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/16 Indian media reported on Tuesday's events in London events.                                                                                                                                                            
- IBNS posted a report calling Dow's sponsorship "tainted" and said "British MPs are up in arms" over the issue, despite Coe's commitment to the stadium wrap deal. The wire story covered the activist coalition press      
statement and quoted from UK media on Coe describing Dow's selection. Dow's position statement is given at the end, and is unique in including the sentence regarding the MP state's control of the site and responsibility  
for remediation.                                                                                                                                                                                                             
http://www.indiablooms.com/SportsDetailsPage/2011/sportsDetails161111c.php                                                                                                                                                   
- ANI issued a short wire report on Coe's statements to the committee.                                                                                                                                                       
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/lord-coe-defends-blood-bhopal-dows-sponsorship-london-064028359.html                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/17 The Hindu summarized this week's media on the Dow Olympic sponsorship, drawing mainly from the activist coalition statements. Dow's position on Bhopal and Lord Coe's statements on the matter were included. The      
article appeared in the Delhi print edition.                                                                                                                                                                                 
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article2633719.ece                                                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/17 The Independent published a column by Diane Abbott, MP for Hackney North and Stoke Newington and Shadow Public Health Minister, who complained the Games have "lost touch with reality," and that corporate            
sponsorships have not helped the matter. She called Dow's sponsorship "distinctly unhealthy."                                                                                                                                
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/diane-abbott-the-games-that-lost-touch-with-reality-6263191.html                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/18 Around the Rings published a Sponsor Spotlight report with a brief report on Lord Coe's statements defending the Dow sponsorship.                                                                                      
http://www.aroundtherings.com/articles/view.aspx?id=38533                                                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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11/15-18 Local media: MDN, MLive, WNEM; UK local letters and columns                                                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/15 Local MIchigan media picked up the AP report on events in London regarding Dow's Olympic sponsorship, including MLive.com (Saginaw News), WNEM TV-5 websites, and the print edition of the Midland Daily News - p2     
across the fold on the left side.                                                                                                                                                                                            
http://www.mlive.com/newsflash/index.ssf/story/london-olympic-organizers-wont-scrap-dow-deal/e9f9eec28189496ba544ed04469c081f                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/17-18 Local UK media columns and letters addressed the Dow sponsorship and the Olympics in general.                                                                                                                       
 - Wharf.uk reported on the activist coalition press event. http://www.wharf.co.uk/2011/11/mps-urge-locog-to-ditch-deal-w.html                                                                                               
 - Scottish Daily Record columnist Joan Burnie used the Dow sponsorship controversy to complain about the Games overall as "becoming more farcical, as well as expensive, by the day."                                       
http://blogs.dailyrecord.co.uk/joanburnie/2011/11/watching-our-money-go-up-in-olympic-flam.html?utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheDailyRecord%2FJoanBurnie+%28The+Daily+Record+-+Joan+Burnie%29  
-  East End Advertiser published a letter by Agent Orange activist Len Aldis criticizing Dow's sponsorship and invoking the AO and napalm issues. Bhopal was not mentioned. Full text available on request.                  
 - East End Advertiser also published a comment that Bethnal Green and Bow MP Rushanara Ali "has called upon" LOCOG to "rethink their use of the Dow Chemical Company as a stadium sponsor." Full text available on request. 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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11/14 Saginaw News: Reporter questions whether Bhopal "shadow" affects Dow                                                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Saginaw News posted an MLive.com article titled "Is the Bhopal disaster still casting a shadow on Dow Chemical?" by business and economic issues reporter Kathryn Lynch-Morin.                                               
The context of the article is Liveris' possibly being "dropped from" the Indo-US CEO Forum and the company's connection, or lack thereof, to the Bhopal gas tragedy.                                                         
Morin cited Dow statements regarding the CEO Forum, the Bhopal gas tragedy, and Responsible Care.                                                                                                                            
After mentioning the press statements in India regarding the ICJB's Olympic athlete petition, Lynch-Morin closed with:                                                                                                       
"Is the Bhopal disaster still unfairly casting a shadow on Dow Chemical?"                                                                                                                                                    
No comments were posted on this item.                                                                                                                                                                                        
http://www.mlive.com/business/mid-michigan/index.ssf/2011/11/is_the_bhopal_disaster_still_c.html                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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11/12 Hindustan Times: GoI cancelled registrations for four Dow Agrosciences products                                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Hindustan Times reported the registrations for the four DAS India pesticides that have been at issue in the De-Nocil cases have been cancelled by the GoI.                                                                   
http://www.hindustantimes.com/India-news/NewDelhi/Govt-bars-Dow-unit-from-selling-4-pesticides/Article1-768367.aspx                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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11/15 Ummid: Pervez Bari article on Olympics and standing activist allegations against Dow                                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Ummid published a long article by Indian Muslim reporter Pervez Bari, who folded together several topics regarding Bhopal.                                                                                                   
He started with the information from the Bhopal and Chennai press conferences, listed the 21 former Olympians who signed the ICJB petition, and text from the ICJB press statement. He included expanded comments from       
Dhingra saying the UK MPs actions are based on "initiative of the BGIA" (Bhopal Group for Information and Action).                                                                                                           
Bari revisited the activist allegations regarding Dow, its relationship to and responsibilities for UCC, the polluter pays principle, UCC's lease obligation to return the factory site to the MP govt "in its original      
condition," the GoI court petition for Dow to fund the site remediation, and the activist claim of double standards and racist policies regarding UCC business in the US and India.                                          
http://ummid.com/news/2011/November/15.11.2011/olymipans_against_dow_chemicals.htm                                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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11/18 IANS, Telegraph: Greenpeace, "Bhopal survivors" object to new nuclear civil liabilities rules                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
India's Telegraph and IANS reported Greenpeace and "Bhopal survivors" reacted angrily at the terms of the GoI's Rules of the Civil Liability for Nuclear Damages Act that were issued on Thursday. "Campaigners...warned of  
'another Bhopal'" in terms of compensation and environmental contamination, should a nuclear facility accident occur. Greenpeace member Karuna Raina alleged the GoI places "foreign interest...above the wellbeing of its   
people."                                                                                                                                                                                                                     
Telegraph: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/india/8896591/India-angers-Bhopal-survivors-over-nuclear-decision.html                                                                                             
IANS: http://www.inewsone.com/2011/11/17/india-caved-in-to-foreign-pressure-on-nuclear-liability/90944                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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11/14 Asian Voice: Keith Vaz interview of Colin Toogood on Bhopal and BMA                                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Asian Voice, a UK tabloid newspaper, published an interview with BMA's Toogood done by Keith Vaz. Toogood talked a little about his life before BMA, what he does for BMA, and long term goals. Dow is not                   
mentioned. Toogood focuses on providing services for the gas victims "and hopefully the justice they deserve." He cited the "ongoing environmental contamination" and the "second disaster" of water contamination. He       
acknowledged BMA is a "tiny charity," "there is so little awareness" of continuing issues in Bhopal, and people assume "the Bhopal disaster was all resolved many years ago." Full text available on request.                
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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11/14-11/17 Independent, Socialist Party UK: BMHRC drug trials commentary                                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
UK Independent posted two articles on the Bhopal Memorial Hospital and Research Center drug trials:                                                                                                                          
- The first focused on pharmaceutical companies using impoverished Indian people as "guinea pigs," with one short paragraph on the drug trials. Full text available on request.                                              
- The second article was specific to the BMHRC. Writer Nina Lakhani said the information sources were "secret reports" showing "drug trials funded by western pharmaceutical firms at the Indian hospital set up for         
survivors of the Bhopal disaster violated international ethical standards and could have put patients at risk."The reports cited are likely documents accessed by ICJB leader Rachna Dhingra via RTI requests that have been 
reported here previously. Dow is not mentioned, the article focuses on pharmaceutical companies including Theravance, Pfizer, GSK and Sanofi, and the drug trial practices at the hospital. Dhingra termed the conduct of    
the trials "disgusting and appalling," and the Bhopal gas survivors who were subjected to the trials "doubly victimized." A case study of Ramadhar Shrivastave is included; he is the same patient highlighted in recent     
media items about the drug trial controversy.                                                                                                                                                                                
http://feeds.bignewsnetwork.com/?rid=201028415&amp;cat=hfu8sjsy4hjfjdha                                                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
- Daily News &amp; Analysis published a commentary on Monday's broader Independent report on drug trials in India. Full text available on request.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
- The Socialist Party UK media also included a brief report on the BMHRC drug trials controversy.                                                                                                                            
http://www.socialistparty.org.uk/issue/694/13161/16-11-2011/fast-news                                                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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11/17 Hard News: activist RTI requests GoI documents on Anderson extradition                                                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Indian media Hard News published a report on an activist's RTI requests to access GoI documents on the Warren Anderson extradition efforts. Afroz Alam Sahil was provided with CBI and Ministry of External Affairs          
documents from 1992-94, which he said indicated the agencies did not try to expedite the process.                                                                                                                            
The lengthy article mentioned the curative petition on Bhopal victims compensation was originally scheduled to begin hearings on Oct. 17, "but it has been postponed."                                                       
http://www.hardnewsmedia.com/2011/11/4214                                                                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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11/18 Derby Evening Telegraph: Animal's People review                                                                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
The UK's Derby Evening Telegraph published a local book group review of Indra Sinha's novel Animal's People. Full text available on request.                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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Bhopali film: Screenings scheduled in Amsterdam, Toronto, London, NYC, Pittsburgh, Boston                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Upcoming screenings scheduled for the Bhopali documentary include:                                                                                                                                                           
-        11/18-11/23, International Documentary Film Festival Amsterdam (IDFA) - four screenings: 11/18, 19, 20, 23. No indication whether either Carlson or Payalan will attend.                                            
-        11/25. Amnesty Int'l Film Festival - Toronto screening with Ellen Shifrin, ICJB North America advisory board member, also AI Toronto Business &amp; Human Rights Team, and Aube Giroux, a Canadian activist filmmaker.  
-        11/30 Frontier Club, London. Writer and BMA co-founder Indra Sinha will attend (host/present?)                                                                                                                      
-        12/1 The Indie Screen in Brooklyn, NY                                                                                                                                                                               
-        12/1 Pittsburgh University, presented by AID Pittsburgh                                                                                                                                                             
-        12/2 Amnesty International Film Festival, Bloor Street United Church of Canada in Toronto                                                                                                                           
-        12/3 MIT campus at 6:30 p.m. "followed by a Q&amp;A with members of ICJB.                                                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
ICJB website: new front page layout; Rail Roko information/justification                                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
The front page of the ICJB website, Bhopal.net, front page has undergone a partial transition, with a new image of a Bhopal torch light rally and a reorganization of the information on the page. The site's interior pages 
do not appear to have changed.                                                                                                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
The site was also updated with five pages of information regarding the Rail Roko protest that is planned for Bhopal on Dec. 3.                                                                                               
The posts include:                                                                                                                                                                                                           
- An appeal for readers to "change your reservations now" to avoid traveling by train on 12/3. The text includes an apology for the inconvenience, "but stopping the trains is the only effective way we can think of to get 
our urgent and important message through to the prime minister &amp; government."                                                                                                                                                
- The posts are all about compensation for the gas victims - the UCC settlement amount, how it was calculated, the GoI's "promise to make amends for its betrayal in 1989" with the curative petition on compensation, and   
the claimed inaccuracy of data submitted with the curative petition, as compared to ICMR data. Comparisons using charts and tables are made between settlements for the U.S. Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, the "Mangalore rail     
crash," and "Uphaar cinema fire."                                                                                                                                                                                            
- A page on "the first betrayal" claims Warren Anderson met with the Indian ambassador in Washington early in 1985 and was told the GoI "had an open mind" but wanted UCC "to take the first step" in proposing a            
settlement. A proposal was reportedly delivered at a subsequent "top secret meeting" between UCC, UCIL and GoI officials, followed by the formal proposal on March 4, 1985.                                                  
Full text attached.                                                                                                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
BMA website: media items on Dow's Olympic sponsorship; play day for Chingari Trust children                                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
BMA posted four new items on its website, including three of the recent media items on Dow's Olympic sponsorship:                                                                                                            
-        An excerpt from the Independent's initial article on Tuesday, 11/15, with the title "Coe shrugs off Bhopal protest."                                                                                                
-        The Guardian's poll on whether LOCOG should drop Dow's sponsorship.                                                                                                                                                 
-        The Channel 4 article on the sponsorship issue.                                                                                                                                                                     
-        Photos and description of a picnic and play day for Chingari Trust children at a park in Bhopal.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Amnesty: Bhopal presentation slides for Group 133; Annual Write-A-Thon on Dec. 11                                                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
The Amnesty Group 133 (Somerville, MA) message board posted the slides from Leonid Chindelevitch's ICJB presentation Nov. 8. The 28 slides do not contain much new information. The Olympics campaign plan is the same that  
was posted on the AID Boston chapter minutes from 10/23. The new items are:                                                                                                                                                  
  * Dates for local events - 12/3  Bhopali documentary screening at MIT; a workshop on 11/13 "on activism-life balance" - by Hillary Rettig.                                                                                 
  * The 'Plan of Action" reiterated:                                                                                                                                                                                         
       * "reach out - US Olympians, Dow victims from all 5 continents, Allies (Amnesty International, AID, Agent Orange, Greenpeace, BMA, etc)                                                                               
       * "Mobilize awareness on Dec 3rd and 10th                                                                                                                                                                             
       * "Hold parallel Olympics for Dow victims                                                                                                                                                                             
       * "Strategy via the Olympic organizing committee" (no further explanation of this)                                                                                                                                    
  * A victory over "Dow's hypocrisy" was claimed because 6 ICJB members "disrupted" the Live Earth Run in 2010 and "It was not held again in 2011!"                                                                          
  * Past events mentioned included the walks from Bhopal to Delhi and the "B'eau Pal Water" Yes Men/BMA prank                                                                                                                
Due to the file size, the slides are available on request.                                                                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Amnesty Group 133 plans to hold its Annual Global Write-A-Thon on Sunday, Dec. 11 in the Center Court of Boston's Prudential Building. The ICJB Boston action plan regarding Dow's Olympics sponsorship includes Dec. 10,    
World Human Rights Day, as an action date this year. Given Chindelevitch's recent presentation, the public event is a candidate for some type of ICJB activity.                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Change.org petition now over 1,000 signatures                                                                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
As of Nov. 18, the Change.org petition addressed to Lord Coe currently has about 1,030 signatures.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Activist email: Dhingra, Edwards send media items to Remember-Bhopal list                                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Rachna Dhingra emailed to the Remember-Bhopal distribution list the full text of Tuesday's Independent article claiming "secret reports" as the source material for reporting on the BMHRC drug trials.                      
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Dhingra and Tim Edwards each emailed Wednesday's poll URL to the "Remember-Bhopal" distribution list and encouraged recipients to vote "Yes."                                                                                
Edwards also emailed 8 URLs for a "selection of UK coverage" on Tuesday.                                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
AID: new chapter at George Washington Univ.                                                                                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
There is a new AID chapter at George Washington University in Washington, D.C. No details have been released about the group, other than it was founded "with the help of a few AID JHU (Johns Hopkins Univ) students."      
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Message boards: Games Monitor; Chennai and Delhi enviro groups                                                                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
The Games Monitor watchdog blog and message board posted Tuesday's BMA press announcement and Times of India's report on Coe's hearing testimony on the Dow sponsorship.                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
ICJB activist Shweta Nayaran shared the Guardian poll link on the message boards for the Chennai-based environmental group Lets Save Our Oceans and Reclaim Our Beaches, and the IITD4Bhopal IIT Delhi group.                
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Blogs: BMA volunteer Ian Jarvis updates on life at clinic                                                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Sambhavna Clinic volunteer therapist Ian Jarvis posted a Week 11 diary update about life at the clinic. His main topics are the Muslim Eid festival, and challenges of electrical power access at the clinic.                
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Social media: BMA Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube; anti-Dow Olympics Facebook                                                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
BMA's Facebook page was updated with the same three posts as the website:                                                                                                                                                    
-       An excerpt from the Independent's initial article on Tuesday, 11/15, with the title "Coe shrugs off Bhopal protest.                                                                                                  
-       The Guardian's poll on whether LOCOG should drop Dow's sponsorship.                                                                                                                                                  
-       The Channel 4 article on the sponsorship issue.                                                                                                                                                                      
The page also included a link to the Hindustan Times article from 11/12 about GoI cancelling registrations for the four DAS India products. Photojournalist Jack Laurenson posted several comments criticizing Dow's Olympic 
sponsorship and remarks made by Lord Coe regarding the issue.                                                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
BMA's Twitter account tweeted the link to the Guardian's poll, announcing that 91.6% thought Dow should be removed as a sponsor. The account also posted several links to recent media, and a link to the Bhopali Facebook   
announcement of the film screening at MIT on Dec. 1.                                                                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Al Jazeera's video report on the anti-Dow UK activists was "liked" by BMA on YouTube.                                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
The anti-Dow Olympic sponsorship Facebook page has many of the same posts as the BMA page, and a few others.                                                                                                                 
-        Rosalind Hardie posted a link to the KIM Foundation, with the comment "Dow were also manufacturers of Agent Orange and Napalm used against civilians in the Vietnam War."                                           
-        Lorraine Close posted the Ecologist article on the PAN people's tribunal session about the agrichemical companies                                                                                                   
-        Close also remarked her Change.org petition exceeded 1,000 signatures, and asked for continued sharing of the link to it.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Yes Men: Yes Lab actions at APEC in Hawai'i; Bonanno to conduct Yes Lab in Sweden 12/14-16; Mark Rudd at Yes Lab 11/17                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
The Yes Men reported a Yes Lab action took place at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) conference in Honolulu, Hawai'i on 11/12, where Occupy Hawai'i activist and "renowned guitarist Makana" was to perform      
instrumental music, but instead sang a protest song he called "We Are the Many" and displayed a shirt reading "Occupy With Aloha." The audience included heads of states from the U.S., China, Canada, Indonesia and         
elsewhere.                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
The prank received local media coverage in the Honolulu Star Advertiser, as well as blog posts by the Yes Men.                                                                                                               
http://www.staradvertiser.com/s?action=login&amp;f=y  (requires subscription or available on request)                                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Univ. of Hawai'i  Manoa media Ka Leo had reported successively on Yes Man Mike Bonanno's appearances in the state at the "alterna* APEC's Forum(to)Festival" event Nov. 9-13. Bonanno encouraged forum participants to       
respond creatively to "give APEC the attention it deserves." There was no mention of Makana as a forum participant.                                                                                                          
http://www.kaleo.org/news/forum-encourages-creative-response-to-apec-1.2667628                                                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Bonanno is scheduled to appear on Dec. 14 at Stockholm arts blog Sugarcube Gallery to lecture and "conduct a yeslab [sic] in various sites, including KKH, Sugarcube and Stockholm at large." Bonanno's visit is to be Dec.  
14-16. The event is "part of the Budget Recalcitrance Program conceived by Amanda Newall at the Royal Institute of Art."                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
The Nov. 17 Occupy Wall Street day of action was promoted by the Yes Lab blog, which concurrently announced the week's "Revolutionaries Live!" speaker was Mark Rudd, who was a "national symbol of student revolt" as part  
of the SDS faction the Weathermen in the 1960s..                                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                            Allis Information Management, Inc..                                                                                              

   Please remove me from this mailing list.

    
</description>
    <date>2011-11-19 00:39:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/407784_dow-confidential-bhopal-monitoring-report-friday-november-18.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mongoven@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/35/35124_Activist email 11-14-11 ICJB press release.pdf</path><size>46833</size><md5></md5><sha1>8dfcce37a4b42af1ce5408d225c3164f077012a8</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/35/35125_Activist info 11-14-11 ICJB Olympian Endorsements.pdf</path><size>9296</size><md5></md5><sha1>9c6697720cd7d8103b9bda3c9d914b531b23d068</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/35/35128_Activist info 11-14-11 ICJB athlete petition.pdf</path><size>49574</size><md5></md5><sha1>6d52e852d7d86c414efa0efbffbf6e804ae03ed4</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/35/35551_Activist info 11-17-11 ICJB - Rail Roko.pdf</path><size>660337</size><md5></md5><sha1>19b3f58f144e29afec3e7fc04254f2ac9ee38978</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/37/37070_PAN_-_PPT_press_release_11-14-11.pdf</path><size>179239</size><md5></md5><sha1>0a2aaaa6abaaed9fe179958ffb7392a31583cd98</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/37/37073_Activist_info_11-12-11_BMA_press_statement.pdf</path><size>63999</size><md5></md5><sha1>1da21a7193dc18e06eb45cd822f2495d9ac106a4</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/37/37074_PPT_AgChem_case_summary_11-16-11.pdf</path><size>747510</size><md5></md5><sha1>6ad4b9bab1ab1621c0e807d9c94a733957ef89d2</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>408316</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 11-30-11
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   UK media continued reporting on the IOA not voting on an Olympic boycott,
   with the latest items including a comment from Lord Coe: "I have very,
   very close links with the Indian national Olympic committee and I have
   never had any sense at all, privately or publicly, that there was any
   appetite for a boycott."

   Articles have been seen the Guardian, the Mirror, some local/regional
   outlets and a few international outlets. The texts are all very similar.

   Guardian: 
   http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/nov/29/lord-coe-india-boycott-london-2012?newsfeed=true

   Midland Daily News today has the AP article from Monday, located on page
   A3 at the top.

   Indian sports media SportzPower published an article reporting the IOA
   meeting on 12/5 "is not going to happen," partly because IOA secretary
   general Raja Randhir Singh will be traveling to Lausanne, Switzerland that
   day. Unidentified "top sources" also indicated none of the former
   Olympians who signed are IOA members, and that none of the active athletes
   "have written anything" about the Dow sponsorship.

   This article reported the IOC "has been circulating" a document with
   background on the Bhopal gas accident and subsequent activities of the
   Indian governments and UCC "to place on the table the facts of the case
   against the detractors, who are linking Dow Chemical Company with Union
   Carbide Company."

   http://www.sportzpower.com/?q=content/dow-chemicals-issue-no-concern-ioa-has-no-issue-london-2012-0

   Marketing Week published a commentary about Olympic sponsorships in
   general, that sponsoring companies comprise "a veritable rogues gallery of
   the corporate reputation that hardly adheres to the Olympic motto of
   `faster, higher, stronger." BP, Lloyds TSB and Thomas Cook are named in
   this regard. Further comment includes: "Today, most of the companies big
   enough to afford an Olympic sponsorship and desperate enough to seek out
   global recognition are often those most in need of reputational rescue."

   -       Tim Edwards emailed a link to the article to the Remember-Bhopal
   distribution list and included the last item quoted.

   http://www.marketingweek.co.uk/opinion/the-olympic-rings-hide-a-multitude-of-sins/3032347.article

   IBNS published the ICJB press statement about Sambhavna staff
   participation in the Bhopal anniversary events. DNA published a brief item
   from that.

   PTI reported Abdul Jabbar "threatened of holding a dharna" on 12/2-3 at CM
   Chouhan's residence as an anniversary observance. Jabbar addressed the
   media, complaining the "district court" has "a total lack of seriousness"
   in hearing the case on enhancing the sentences in the Bhopal criminal
   case. He also said the GoI and MP state have not implemented the several
   projects or programs for the gas victims that have been announced "in the
   last 18 months."

   http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_bhopal-gas-tragedy-organisation-accuses-centre-state-of-inaction_1619422

   In Nagpur, the Hitavada reported DRDO joint director, Dr. G P Meshram,
   presented at an Indo Finland workshop at NEERI on "The Genomic Tools in
   Bio-remediation." The Hitavada asked Meshram about possible applications
   of bio-remediation for the Bhopal factory waste, to which he apparently
   responded positively. (The writing and grammar are not entirely clear.)
   Full text available on request.

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-11-30 18:51:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/408316_bhopal-update-11-30-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>408906</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 07-26-11
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   The Bhopal gas NGOs held a "huge rally" (photo in DNA paper looks like
   300-400 people), marched from the Bhopal Talkies theatre and presented to
   the Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister and Governor a memo for Prime Minister
   Singh calling for the curative petition on compensation and the UCC
   settlement to be revised with "facts and figures consistent with the
   actual damage caused by the disaster." Rachna Dhingra was quoted on behalf
   of the Bhopal Group for Information and Action, offering to "point out
   lacunae [gaps/holes] in the curative petition."

   She said the current form of the curative petition "would only serve to
   misinform the Supreme Court regarding the extent of damage caused by the
   corporation and it would thus be an obstruction to the delivery of justice
   to the Bhopal victims."

   The DNA article was not found online, but the Daily Pioneer also reported
   on the protest. DNA's coverage was on p5 of the Indore edition at the top
   of the page with one short column of text and a 3-column wide photo.

   http://www.dailypioneer.com/355968/Gas-tragedy-survivors-submit-memorandum-to-Guv-seek-PMs-intervention.html

   Mail Today published an editorial comment on the curative petition and
   called for it to be "withdrawn from the Supreme Court, amended suitably
   and filed again."

   The article was not found online.

   Al Jazeera published a lengthy article by high-profile activist Vandana
   Shiva in which she cited the Bhopal gas disaster as an example of
   corporations as sources of "toxic pollution." The article was a general
   condemnation of capitalism and the current Indian administration.

   http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/07/2011722134648714404.html

   CSR Wire published a review by Elaine Cohen of a book titled "Corporate
   Social Responsibility: An Ethical Approach," by Mark Schwarz. Cohen wrote:
   "The heart of the book, however, is a grand debate between Milton Friedman
   and The Body Shop positions on a range of CSR-related case studies" and
   the Bhopal gas tragedy is grouped with the Johnson &amp; Johnson Tylenol
   contamination incident and "the river blindness story and Merck, the
   pharmaceutical company."

   http://www.csrwire.com/blog/posts/65-a-review-of-corporate-social-responsibility-an-ethical-approach

   Express News Service reported a film festival at Thiruvananthapuram will
   include "After the Genocide," based on the Bhopal tragedy. (This film is
   not familiar to me) 
   http://expressbuzz.com/cities/thiruvananthapuram/old-partner-to-be-opening-film/297801.html

   The BMA website posted the India Today article on the NGOs' press
   statement about the compensation and mortality/morbidity figures, and
   posted Twitter and Facebook links to the post.

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-07-26 17:11:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/408906_bhopal-update-07-26-11-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>408954</id>
    <title>Re: Ambassador Djalal
</title>
    <description>   You guys need a life. Or dinner on my deck when temp goes down 10 or 20
   degrees. And you both hang out with women who are way beyond your low
   stations in life. As do I. K
    
   From: Karl Rove [mailto:kr@rove.com]
   Sent: Sunday, September 04, 2011 07:43 PM
   To: George Friedman &lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Kerry Cammack
   Subject: Re: Ambassador Djalal
    
   I've been doing it for years and little has helped
   On Sep 4, 2011, at 7:38 PM, George Friedman wrote:

     Thanks. I'm already doing damage control on teh Cammack matter.

     On 09/04/11 19:30 , Karl Rove wrote:

       will do -- he has a call into me as well
       I will tell him you inquired and then make it happen
       both of us need to worry about what the public knowledge that we know
       Cammack could do to our respective reputations
       On Sep 4, 2011, at 6:45 PM, George Friedman wrote:

         Karl:

         Dino Djalal is the Indonesian Ambassador to the United States and
         someone I have known for a bit.  On a trip to Jakarta where I met
         with the President, he approached me asking whether I could help in
         arranging a visit for him with President Bush in order to offer his
         formal gratitude for improving relations with Indonesia during his
         administration. I gathered that this visit was of importance to his
         President who is deeply grateful to President Bush and wants it
         formally transmitted.

         I said that I would do what I could, which in m case consists of
         bringing the matter to Kerry's attention.  I certainly am not aware
         of all of the dynamics here, but I do know that President Bush was
         regarded very fondly in Indonesia during my visit. I do not think
         there is any hidden agenda in this.  Should such a visit be
         possible, it would certainly please the Ambassador and President of
         Indonesia.

         If there is any way I can help facilitate this, please let me know. 
         Thank you for your help in advance.

         Best,

         George Friedman
         On 09/04/11 13:01 , Kerry Cammack wrote:

           George, please contact Karl to coordinate the request you are
           honoring from the Indonesian ambassador to the US for a courtesy
           call and visit with President Bush.  Karl believes the President
           would favorably respond to the request but of course that is
           contingent on timing and other scheduling commitments.  Karl, the
           ambassador is a friend of Georgei? 1/2s who has reached out to 
           him for assistance in arranging this meeting.  Thanks for helping
           my friend George respond to this request.   Best,  Kerry

            

           Kerry N. Cammack

           Cammack &amp; Strong, P.C.

           919 Congress Avenue, Suite 1400

           Austin, TX 78701

           Tele:(512) 472-9919

           Fax:(512) 476-6441

            

           THIS E-MAIL AND ITS ATTACHMENTS ARE INTENDED ONLY FOR THE USE OF
           THE INDIVIDUAL OR ENTITY WHO IS THE INTENDED RECIPIENT AND MAY
           CONTAIN INFORMATION THAT IS PRIVILEGED, CONFIDENTIAL AND EXEMPT
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           PLEASE REPLY IMMEDIATELY TO THE SENDER.

            

         --

         George Friedman

         Founder and CEO

         STRATFOR

         221 West 6th Street

         Suite 400

         Austin, Texas 78701

          

         Phone: 512-744-4319

         Fax: 512-744-4334

          

     --

     George Friedman

     Founder and CEO

     STRATFOR

     221 West 6th Street

     Suite 400

     Austin, Texas 78701

      

     Phone: 512-744-4319

     Fax: 512-744-4334

      
</description>
    <date>2011-09-05 04:16:21</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/408954_re-ambassador-djalal-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kncammack@cammacklaw.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kr@rove.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>409205</id>
    <title>Bhopal update - 08-08-11 media
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   Coverage of the activist displeasure over the Olympic stadium wrap is
   mainly in India at this point in time.

   Chemical Week, however, published an article by Alex Scott that is more
   critical of the wrap's sustainability than the Bhopal issue. Scott
   referred to the Express Sunday article "Olympic Stadium `is Stained by the
   Blood of Bhopal" and wrote, "Dow purchased Union Carbide several years ago
   and with it the burden of any outstanding  blame for the accident." He
   also said, "Some environmental experts I have talked to are not
   particularly impressed by the Wrap material, however"; but he did not cite
   anyone in particular. Scott is CW's Executive Editor, Web and Environment.

   http://www.chemweek.com/chem_ideas/Alex-Scott/Dow-Olympic-Wrap-Shrouded-in-Criticism-too-Much-Looking-Back-or-Not-Enough-Looking-Forward_36770.html

   PTI reported they received a statement from the London Olympic Committee
   defending the Dow sponsorship, saying ""It is a matter of record that the
   plant at the time of this human tragedy was not owned by Dow Chemical. Dow
   was appointed as the supplier of the wrap following a rigorous procurement
   process.  All of our suppliers must work within our own sustainable
   sourcing code and reflect our values and sustainability requirements."

   The report combined the LOC statement; Dow's press information on the
   wrap; Rachna Dhingra's comment on the "message to Seb Coe" and Dow's "PR
   machine working for them day and night; Greenpeace's characterization of
   the sponsorship as "offensive"; and BMA activist Lorrain Close's comment
   regarding "abuse and neglect" of "some of the poorest people, while being
   positively reinforced by Olympic organizers and the UK government."
   Multiple pickups by online media.

   http://www.asianage.com/india/dow-chemicals-icing-cake-london-olympics-activists-furious-392

   Print edition coverage

   -       Hindustan Times' front pages of all four English language editions
   today had the in-house report by Depankar De Sarkar. The Kolkata edition
   had the article at as the lead story with the child's funeral image, while
   New Delhi, Mumbai and Chandigarh editions placed the piece at the bottom
   of the page with a photo of the Olympic stadium.

   -       HT's sports also had the hockey players' reactions condemning the
   Olympics deal.  New Delhi - p18 top, Kolkata - p16 top, Chandigarh - p13
   bottom, Mumbai - p18 middle below the fold

   -       Times of India's Mumbai edition had an introduction to the
   Olympics story on the bottom of the front page, the story on p22

   -       Economic Times had the ANI report on p4 in a "pitch report" column
   and a "thumbs down" rating.

   NewsXLive posted a 49-second video report on YouTube: a London anchor read
   bullet points from activist statement over images from the 1984 gas leak:

   "campaigners outraged"; "Children in the city [Bhopal] are still being
   born maimed" and activists called for "widespread protest" and "Bhopal
   Olympics." Only Greenpeace was specifically cited, with text shown from GP
   spokesperson Arundhati Muthu. Fewer than a dozen views at 8 a.m.

   IBNS reported the ICJB will be joining anti-corruption activist Anna
   Hazare in agitations over the GoI's anti-corruption bill that they
   "condemn." Protests over this are planned in Bhopal on Tuesday "at the
   Union Carbide factory," and unspecified "solidarity action in Bhopal from
   August 16." The ICJB is again raising the issue of "irregularities in the
   purchase of medicine for gas victims." They had held a 19-day fast in
   March 2007 over this, which resulted in several being charged with
   attempted suicide, which have not been resolved. The survivors groups
   claim the Ministry of Bhopal Gas Tragedy has "sabotaged" the Supreme
   Court's Monitoring Committee that was supposed to have oversight.

   http://www.indiablooms.com/NewsDetailsPage/newsDetails080811k.php

   AlterNet picked up the Al Jazeera report on pharmaceutical testing on poor
   populations in India, including at the Bhopal Memorial Hospital and
   Research Center.

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-08-08 17:53:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/409205_bhopal-update-08-08-11-media-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>410181</id>
    <title>FW: Manning &amp; Wiki Founder Arrest/Prosecution?
</title>
    <description>   Holy crap, we're passing Fred's rantings to confederation partners?

    

    

    

   From: Emre Dogru [mailto:emre.dogru@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, December 03, 2010 3:37 AM
   To: burton
   Cc: Confederation
   Subject: Fwd: Manning &amp; Wiki Founder Arrest/Prosecution?

    

   Hey Fred, one of our confed partners (Sabah daily) would like to use this
   information without any attribution. But he just wonders if your source
   used "fry" in the sense that Manning should be executed by electrocution,
   or does it mean something else in intel business lingo?

    

   Thanks

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;, "TACTICAL"
   &lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, December 2, 2010 8:16:14 PM
   Subject: Manning &amp; Wiki Founder Arrest/Prosecution?

   &gt;From a very senior man @ the FBI -- (not for attribution to the FBI pls)

   ------------------------------------------------------------------

   There is no way the administration wants to put him on trial.  That
   would be a huge circus.  Manning should fry and hopefully will

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-03 11:54:04</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/410181_fw-manning-and-wiki-founder-arrest-prosecution-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>410270</id>
    <title>Wikileaks Weekly Comments Compiled
</title>
    <description> --
 Matthew Powers
 STRATFOR Researcher
 Matthew.Powers@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-13 17:56:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 03:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/410270_wikileaks-weekly-comments-compiled-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>matthew.powers@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/37/37263_Wikileaks Weekl - Comments Compiled.doc</path><size>50176</size><md5></md5><sha1>22824f3f7e7dd6048bf8844b391ec318b30694d9</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>410485</id>
    <title>Article on Wikileaks
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-01-11 08:09:05</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/410485_article-on-wikileaks-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>generalhamidgul@gmail.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/37/37276_Aljazeera Wikileaks.pdf</path><size>737515</size><md5></md5><sha1>9b97b85e4d9eb74fdbd7c6b9f61e51e263ac4cb0</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>412101</id>
    <title>Fwd: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power
 struggle, etc. - VZ302
</title>
    <description>     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: watchofficer@statfor.com
   Sent: Monday, December 5, 2011 9:13:24 PM
   Subject: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power struggle,
   etc. - VZ302

   SOURCE: VZ302
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: well-connected VZ source working with Israel
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B - source is anti-Chavez, but I've gotten better at
   reading him over the years to tell when he's feeding me shit and when he's
   giving useful info - his info on the VZ regime has checked out, but i tend
   to be more skeptical on iran-related info
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha, scrub source info and also make sure rest of
   latam team sees this
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

   Chavez's health - the tumor started as a growth close to the prostate, it
   spread to the colon, which is what led to a lot of confusion in the OS
   about the treatment of prostate v. colon cancer  in hormonal v.
   chemotherapy. A reliable source on the medical has explained that the
   cancer has spread to the lymph nodes and into the bone marrow up to the
   spine, ie. very serious.

   Chavez temporarily stopped the chemo in order to make an appearance at the
   recent CELAC meeting.  The medical team is made up of both Russian and
   Cuban doctors. Both sides are clashing.  THe Russian team blamed the
   Cubans for an improper surgery the first time in trying to remove the
   tumor. The second surgery over the summer was basically the Russian team
   trying to clean up the Cuban team's mistakes. The Russians complain that
   the Cubans dont have the right imagery treatment to properly treat
   Chavez.  The Cuban medical diagnosis is 2 years. The Russian medical
   diagnosis, due to improper medical equipment, is less than one year. The
   source on the medical team complains that Chavez is a very 'bad patient.'
   He doesn't listen to his doctors, he ceases treatment when he has to make
   a public appearance. Now the Russian and the Chinese doctors are going at
   it because Chavez sought hte advice of a Chinese doctor that advocates
   more natural treatments and the Russians are saying this is horse shit
   treatment. only chavez can get the most politicized medical team in the
   world.
   (note - if you see medical reports on Chavez's health in WSJ or Brazil's
   Veja magazine, it's probably coming from this source.)

   Who replaces Chavez?
   I would keep my eye on FM Nicolas Maduro. Maduro is loyal as a dog to
   Chavez. (the source knows Maduro personally, from the days that Maduro was
   a driver of the metro bus.)  At the same time, maduro is seen as the most
   pragmatic in the regime.  If Chavez's health deteriorates significantly
   before the scheduled Oct 2012 elections, expect him to proclaim Maduro as
   his successor in one way or another. You can already see him propping up
   Maduro in a lot of ways. This is less risky than Chavez going through with
   elections, winning, suddenly dying and then a power struggle among the
   Chavistas breaking out. It will be much harder in this latter scenario for
   Maduro to assert himself against rival Chavistas like Diosdado Cabello,
   Rafiel Ramirez, etc.

   Remember that there are four key players propping up the regime - China,
   Cuba, Russia, Iran. All four are split on how to manage a post-Chavez
   regime. China and Russia are more insulated, as they've tried to get away
   from Chavez the personality, to preserving Chavismo, the regime. Russia
   has set up a specific task force (note the Patrushev visits) to help
   manage the post-chavez transition. Both China and Russia are backing
   Maduro as their preferred successor. Cuba, however, is in trouble.  They
   can't count on a Maduro to continue subsidizing them with thousands of
   barrels of oil every day. No one is really paying attention to Cuba - they
   can;t count on the Europeans for investment. Without VZ, they're screwed.
   The Cubans so far have been backing Adan Chavez (Chavez's brother) as the
   preferred candidate, but he doesnt have the same following. Cuba may shift
   to backing Maduro. (At this point in the convo, i brought up the
   possibility of Cuba, having the best intel on VZ, using that intel to
   leverage with the US and open up its options - he agreed that's what the
   Castros will do to survive but he hasnt seen serious signs of this.. yet.)

   Maduro is seen as more of a Lula candidate. He has a following, he has
   charisma, but he's also a balancer. He's the kind of guy that would open
   up to the US and keep tight with everyone else, but that still makes Iran
   nervous.  The source seems to think that Obama in his second term would
   open up to Maduro (and this is something that he is actively working on.)

   The opposition -
   Venezuela is divided into 5 different strata - A, B, C, D, E - A ++ is the
   elite of the elite, the boli-bourgeoisie that that Chavez has very
   successfully vilified. Chavez doesn't give a shit about these guys. His
   base is the D and E.
   Capriles Radonski, Leopoldo Lopez, Maria Corina Machado are all the A++ -
   way too elitist. They can't win over the chavista vote.
   The only one that has a real chance is Pablo Perez - Zulia governor - he's
   actually seen as one of the people.  The conversation between him adn the
   Castros is jsut starting up. (i asked if Perez is talking to Maduro yet -
   he says not yet.)

   guess who has been most cooperative with us lately?   The military elite. 
   These guys have been living the good life. They love women... lots of
   women. THey love booze. They love bora bora. They are easy to bribe. They
   dont care about chavez. they care about maintaining their current
   lifestyles. We've seen a lot of these military elite reach out to us
   lately, trying to insulate themselves in a post-Chavez scenario.

   This is why you'll see Chavez investing a lot of time and money in
   developing the militia. They're his best insurance policy. The more of a
   problem the militia can create on the streets, the more the military elite
   will hestiate before acting against him or his potential successor.

   The intent of the ley de precios is very simple. The money laundering
   schemes in food, pharmaceuticals, energy parts, etc. etc. have gotten
   worse./ Completely unchecked.  This price controls law is the government's
   way of controlling opposition campaign spending. Very straightforward -
   they have the legal justification to intimidate corporations into cutting
   back their support for the opposition, or else, their company is taken
   over. This will allow the state more control of the private sector.

   (side note) - we were talking a bit about a recent PdVSA-Iran joint
   venture. They shifted their main base of operations from Caracas to
   Ankara, though. This has become a trend lately, where a lot of Iran's
   sanctions circumventing oeprations in VZ are quietly being relocated to
   Turkey. Part of Turkey's balancing act with Iran.

   these were the main points. will update with more..little fuzzy from wine
   right now.
</description>
    <date>2011-12-06 03:14:51</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/412101_fwd-insight-venezuela-update-on-chavez-s-health-power.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>412522</id>
    <title>Bhopal update 12-02-11 Media 2
</title>
    <description>   Scot, Tomm,

   The Hindu reported on the letter to LOCOG signed by MPs, "celebrities" and
   others. Prof. Noam Chomsky is quoted in this item, describing the Bhopal
   gas victims as having "every right to expect us to join them in their
   courageous efforts" at enforcing accountability for "one of the worst
   corporate crimes in history, and to gain some compensation for their
   suffering." Gardiner and Livingstone are also quoted on the rationale for
   asking LOCOG to reconsider Dow's sponsorship.

   http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/article2681773.ece

   The Hindu's Business Line expanded on the reporting on the above-mentioned
   letter, quoting Ken Livingstone, apparently from today's press conference
   in London:

   "We will certainly be looking at the possibility of a legal challenge. If
   we can't afford a wrap for the stadium I'd rather not have one than have
   one contaminated by the death of 25,000 people."

   Coe's statement of confidence in Dow not having liabilities for the Bhopal
   gas leak, and a brief rendition of the history of the stadium wrap
   conclude the article.

   http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/article2681580.ece?ref=wl_agri-biz

   Daily Mail posted a series of photos from the day's protests in Bhopal,
   showing the Coe, Malhotra and stadium effigies prior to and while being
   burned; an official photo of Coe; and images of the protesters.

   http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2069167/Sebastian-Coe-effigy-burned-Bhopal-protesters-furious-chemical-firms-links-2012-London-Olympics.html

   Indian media have reported further on the rail roko event planned for
   Saturday.

   -       The Hindu reported Rachna Dhingra said the NGOs have been talking
   with the government for six months about changing the data used in the
   curative petition on compensation. The groups intend to keep the trains
   stopped until the GoI capitulates to their demand.

   http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article2681980.ece

   -       Daily Pioneer reported details of locations where the blockades
   are likely to occur. Law enforcement is to be deployed. Activist
   Balkrishna Namdeo said the protests are to be non-violent, but they are
   willing to be arrested.

   http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/bhopal/25028-voluntary-organisations-call-for-rail-roko-today.html

   Daily Pioneer reported BJP state president and MP Prabhat Jha claimed
   solidarity with the gas NGOs and said the government should do more for
   them.

   http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/bhopal/24937-bjp-fight-for-gas-tragedy-victims-will-continue-jha.html

   Indian media also reported on other stories related to the anniversary
   protests: the ICJB press statements and the effigy burnings. Daily Pioneer
   reported Navin Shah said now he has begun a petition asking "people from
   India and UK to create pressure on LOCOG to reconsider its position."

   http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/bhopal/25022-protestors-burn-olympic-games-partners-effigies.html

   The UK's Guardian environment blog reported on the PAN People's Tribunal
   "trial of pesticide companies" that begins in Bangalore on Saturday. The
   blog post focuses on bee colony collapse syndrome that is blamed on
   neonicotiniod pesticides.

   http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2011/dec/02/pesticides-bees?newsfeed=true

   The Friday Indian print editions included two items on Daily News &amp;
   Analysis' Bhopal page in the Indore edition. One reported on the Chingari
   Trust children's rally held on Dec. 1 to commemorate the Bhopal accident
   anniversary, the other reported the ICMR's call for research proposals to
   study the long term effects of MIC exposure in the gas tragedy victims has
   only received two responses, so the submission deadline has been extended
   to Dec. 31.

   -       Two Hindustan Times editions - New Delhi and Chandigarh - included
   the article "British MPs want Dow ousted." Both were in the sports
   sections off to the right side of the page - one at the top and the other
   across the fold.

   Also, Sports Illustrated columnist Brian Cazeneuve updated and corrected
   Thursday's post about the London Olympics and Dow's sponsorship.

   http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/brian_cazeneuve/11/30/Olympic-Notebook/index.html?eref=si_more

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
</description>
    <date>2011-12-03 00:38:10</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/412522_bhopal-update-12-02-11-media-2-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>asigsby@allisinfo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sbwheeler@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tomm_sprick@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mediarelations@unioncarbide.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>CMKnochel@dow.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>438203</id>
    <title>FW: The Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks' Survival
</title>
    <description>    

                                                                              
   Stratfor logo                                                              
   The Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks' Survival                                 
                                                                              
   December 7, 2010 | 1646 GMT                                                
                                                                              
   The Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks' Survival                                 
                                                                              
                                            FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP/Getty Images 
                                                                              
   WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange at the United Nations office in Geneva on 
   Nov. 5                                                                     
                                                                              
   Summary                                                                    
                                                                              
   WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange surrendered to authorities in Britain on  
   Dec. 7, following an Interpol Red Notice based on a Swedish arrest         
   warrant. WikiLeaks is a relatively young organization with one leader and  
   has not institutionalized a set of practices and protocols that guarantee  
   its survival even if the personnel changes. Assange's arrest will test the 
   organization's ability to maintain itself, but the use of the Internet to  
   leak documents will continue.                                              
                                                                              
   Analysis                                                                   
                                                                              
   Related Special Topic Page                                                 
                                                                              
   .                       The WikiLeaks Releases                             
                                                                              
   London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and public 
   spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 9:30 a.m. local time on Dec. 7 after Assange   
   turned himself in. He is due to appear in a court in Westminster soon over 
   sexual assault charges filed against him in Sweden, and faces possible     
   extradition.                                                               
                                                                              
   There is considerable interest in what his arrest will mean for his        
   organization. WikiLeaks organized a new method for an old practice -       
   leaking confidential government information in an attempt to influence     
   politics. And while Assange's arrest could disrupt the long-term viability 
   of WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release of the current batch of         
   diplomatic cables in the short term, nor will it stop similar future leaks 
   via the Internet.                                                          
                                                                              
   Leadership is extremely important in nongovernmental organizations that    
   have not institutionalized to the point where their dominant figures are   
   replaceable and members can adapt to changing circumstance. From terrorist 
   groups to charities, new organizations often rise and fall with their      
   founders. Assange created WikiLeaks with himself as the only public face - 
   he leads supporters, drives donations, gives interviews and faces the      
   resulting criticism. There have been reports of internal dissent and       
   tensions, and in one interview with CNN, a discussion of the               
   organization's internal politics seemed to touch a nerve with Assange. If  
   Assange were to face charges in Sweden for sexual assault or new charges   
   in the United Kingdom or the United States and was found guilty, WikiLeaks 
   would still need someone to oversee it. Assange may have someone ready to  
   fill the leadership void, but there has been no evidence of this.          
                                                                              
   In addition to having its leadership threatened, WikiLeaks has suffered    
   logistically. As national governments put pressure on its infrastructure,  
   its web server has been shut down, and most important, a major source of   
   funding, PayPal, has closed WikiLeaks' account (Visa and Mastercard have   
   also banned payments from their cards to WikiLeaks). It is also possible   
   the events of the past few months will deter other potential leakers from  
   approaching WikiLeaks as opposed to other organizations (especially if     
   they dislike or disagree with Assange). Moreover, this new set of          
   documents has not been greeted with the reaction Assange expected - the    
   U.S. public is not angry at the State Department, but many are angry at    
   Assange and his organization.                                              
                                                                              
   Immediately following Assange's arrest, a WikiLeaks spokesman said the     
   arrest would not stop the group's operations. Indeed, whether Assange      
   remains behind bars or not, it most likely will not stop the continued     
   release of the 250,000 U.S. State Department cables, only a fraction of    
   which have been released thus far. It also will not shut down WikiLeaks,   
   which still maintains its website - albeit currently on a Swiss server,    
   after its initial U.S.-hosted servers were deactivated - and the ability   
   to collect information from leakers. So in the short term, WikiLeaks will  
   persist. The question remains if Assange created a truly sustainable       
   institution.                                                               
                                                                              
   If Assange is extradited to Sweden and tried on one count of unlawful      
   coercion, two counts of sexual molestation and one count of rape, it is    
   not clear to what degree the image of WikiLeaks will be damaged; thus far  
   Assange has cultivated the site as an extension of his persona, and even   
   without the assault charges he is not held in high repute. The extradition 
   process could take months or even years, and he may try to use prison time 
   to develop his image as a martyr for free speech, but this can backfire.   
   If WikiLeaks, however, is not tied to his image, it will be much more      
   sustainable as an organization.                                            
                                                                              
   Western governments also fear whatever is contained in his "insurance"     
   file, a 1.4-gigabyte computer file that has already been distributed to    
   many thousands of people over the Internet. Assange has threatened to      
   release the encryption password if something happens to him. As STRATFOR   
   has stated before, WikiLeaks likely led with its most insightful           
   documents, and thus those saved in the insurance file are probably less    
   enlightening than they are damaging. The file may contain no new           
   information at all, but simply the names and information on sources,       
   diplomats, military and intelligence officers not already disclosed. Such  
   a release could put these individuals' jobs or even lives at risk.         
   However, such a release exposing these individuals in a vindictive manner  
   could further tarnish Assange and WikiLeaks in the eyes of the             
   international public, to include potential financial and information       
   contributors. Beyond that, governments will almost certainly take stronger 
   measures against WikiLeaks if it does release identities of classified     
   sources or officers.                                                       
                                                                              
   WikiLeaks is now facing a conundrum that all new organizations face at     
   some point - the ability to maintain and transition leadership through     
   adverse circumstances. Assange may be released quickly, but if he is not,  
   WikiLeaks' survival will be in question. However, even if WikiLeaks        
   disappears, the organizational concept will continue, and leaks along with 
   it. WikiLeaks has only demonstrated the ability new technology has created 
   to transfer large quantities of documents, and there is no reason other    
   organizations will not make use of the same technology.                    
                                                                              
   Give us your thoughts                           Read comments on           
   on this report                                  other reports              
                                                                              
   For Publication                                 Reader Comments            
                                                                              
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</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 19:33:21</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/438203_fw-the-assange-arrest-and-wikileaks-survival-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>Jean.Desgagne@tdsecurities.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Undisclosed</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>recipients:</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>448795</id>
    <title>WEB ALERT! Stratfor Corp Site
</title>
    <description>   Submit_Date: 08-16-06 17:24

   FormID: Contact_Us_StratforCom

   Salutation: Mr

   FirstName: Fabio

   LastName: Cajueiro

   Phone: 55-21-2299-2111

   Email: fabcaj@policiamilitar.rj.gov.br

   HowDidYouHear: Magazine

   Message:

   I received an e-mail from a military officer here in Brazil, with this
   message:
   "Exclusivo * Os estrategistas do Palacio do Planalto entraram em panico
   com o teor explosivo de um documento tambem enviado ao Senado, na
   quarta-feira passada, pela entidade denominada *Para o Bem da America
   Latina*, abastecida de informac,oes pelo servic,o internacional da CIA, a
   agencia central de inteligencia dos Estados Unidos. A entidade enviou ao
   presidente Lula da Silva e aos senadores um dossie denunciando que a
   corrupc,ao no Brasil esta financiando o crime organizado e o terrorismo.

   O documento cita nominalmente os responsaveis por uma grande movimentac,ao
   de *dinheiro sujo* que sai do Brasil para o exterior. Foram denunciados:
   tres governadores, 25 deputados, 178 prefeitos, 133 desembargadores e 245
   juizes. A entidade calcula que a rede de corrupc,ao conte com 2.500
   funcionarios dos poderes Judiciario, Legislativo e Executivo. O maior
   problema e que o esquema estaria financiando a ac,ao de grupos
   terroristas, que promovem as recentes ac,oes de guerrilha urbana no Pais.

   O documento ao Senado deixa bem claro: *O relatorio e para alertar todos
   os senadores sobre a real situac,ao que a Presidencia da Republica esta
   omitindo, por conta da campanha eleitoral. A maior cidade da America do
   Sul esta sitiada por uma celula terrorista. Esperam-se ataques de grandes
   proporc,oes ate as eleic,oes*. O quadro preocupa a *Aguia*. A Secretaria
   de Estado dos EUA, Condoleezza Rice, manifestou semana passada, por
   telefone, ao presidente George W. C. Bush, sua preocupac,ao com situac,ao
   politica e do avanc,o do terror no Brasil.

   Jornais norte-americanos ja colocam o Brasil em sexto lugar na
   preocupac,ao com redes de terrorismo. Os EUA temem que celulas terroristas
   que atuam junto com a organizac,ao criminosa Primeiro Comando da Capital
   tenham ligac,oes com grupos muc,ulmanos e da Europa, como o IRA (Exercito
   Republicano Irlandes) e o ETA (grupo separatista basco). Os guerrilheiros
   daqui do Brasil estariam recebendo ordens vindas da Colombia e da
   Venezuela. As armas viriam do Paraguai, onde foi recentemente desbaratada
   uma *celula de fornecedores*. O armamento entraria pelos estados do Parana
   e Mato Grosso.

   Uma prova da ac,ao organizada dos terroristas, nos moldes europeus ou do
   Oriente Medio, foi o sequ:estro do reporter da Rede Globo em Sao Paulo,
   Gulherme Portanova. Ele foi libertado aos 30 minutos desta segunda-feira,
   no bairro do Morumbi, na Zona Sul de Sao Paulo. Ficou em poder dos
   bandidos deste `as 8 horas da manha de sabado, quando foi dominado junto
   com o auxiliar tecnico Alexandre Calado, que foi solto antes para cumprir
   uma missao dos bandidos.

   A libertac,ao do jornalista dependeria da divulgac,ao de um video, de 3
   minutos e 5 segundos de durac,ao, por suposta ordem do PCC. A Globo
   obedeceu seguindo os conselhos de sua consultoria de seguranc,a, que e
   ligada ao servic,o secreto ingles. No DVD, exibido pela TV Globo de Sao
   Paulo, `a 0h 28min de domingo, um criminoso faz criticas ao sistema
   penitenciario brasileiro. O marginal, supostamente ligado ao PCC, defende
   um mutirao para revisao de penas, melhores condic,oes carcerarias, e
   contra o RDD (Regime Diferencial Disciplinado).

   O PCC paulista ja e considerado uma celula terrorista mais forte que o
   Hezbollah que e combatido por Israel, no Libano. O relatorio da ONG ligada
   `a CIA e `a Direc,ao Nacional de Inteligencia dos EUA ressalta que o
   presidente Bush esta preocupado com Cuba, com a Venezuela e agora com o
   Brasil. Nao sera surpresa se, ao longo desta semana, o presidente Lula da
   Silva receber uma ligac,ao da Casa Branca, advertindo sobre o problema, e
   cobrando uma soluc,ao energica contra a organizac,ao dos terroristas,
   sobretudo na triplice fronteira entre o Brasil, a Argentina e o Paraguai.

   Ataque ao governo petista

   O relatorio da *aguia* deixa claro aos senadores e ao proprio governo
   brasileiro que as recentes mega-operac,oes da Policia Federal, com prisoes
   de desembargadores, politicos e ate de militares, causou estarrecimento ao
   servic,o de inteligencia norte-americano.

   A entidade considera evidentes os indicios de explorac,ao politica nas
   operac,oes da PF, *em func,ao da situac,ao de um governo que esta
   enlameado na corrupc,ao e que nos ultimos momentos comec,a uma cac,a `as
   bruxas, jogando com relatorios sobre denuncias de corrupc,ao que ha anos
   ja se sabia*.

   O relatorio aponta que a situac,ao e muito mais grave do que a indicada
   pelo Secretario de Seguranc,a de Sao Paulo, Saulo Abreu de Castro, que foi
   ameac,ado de processo por sugerir que haveria ligac,oes entre o Partido
   dos Trabalhadores e o Primeiro Comando da Capital * fato que foi repudiado
   pelo presidente Lula da Silva e por seu partido."

   Do you know or may write something about this?
   I don't translate this in order to show you as I received.
   If you can send me an answer without breaking your national security or
   protocols, we appreciate.

   Sicerely,

   Major Cajueiro

   OtherComment: Military and Law Enforcement Inquiry

   ----------------------------------------------------------------------
   IP Address: 200.222.27.249

   TimeStamp: Wed, 16 Aug 2006 17:37:02 -0500

   UserAgent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows; U; Windows NT 5.1; pt-BR; rv:1.8.0.6)
   Gecko/20060728 Firefox/1.5.0.6
</description>
    <date>2006-08-17 00:37:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-02 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/448795_web-alert-stratfor-corp-site-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>service@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>noreply@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>491081</id>
    <title>RE: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
</title>
    <description>   Kudos...a great explanation for those who don't understand or appreciate
   the efforts that go into a real intel op...as opposed to the Hollywood BS
   everyone seems to expect.

    

   I remind people all the time that we got the courier's name back in '03 --
   and thank goodness didn't take the typical "cuff 'em and drag him in"
   approach many had advocated. We stayed patient and threw real analytical
   support into this one. Took some time -- but the patient oriental approach
   usually pays bigger dividends.  M

    

   From: STRATFOR [mailto:mail@response.stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, June 16, 2011 11:45 AM
   To: Michael Maness
   Subject: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier

    

                View on Mobile Phone | Read the online version.                  

    

   STRATFOR Weekly Intelligence Update                                        
   Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier: Special Edition of Above the Tearline 
                                                                              
   The weekly Above the Tearline video series is part of our members-only     
   content. We hope you enjoy this exclusive chance to access it free.        
                                                                              
                                                                              
                                                                              
                                     [IMG]                                    
               Watch this exclusive edition of Above the Tearline             
                                                                              
            Above the Tearline: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier           
                                                                              
                                                                              
                                                                              
   Vice President of Intelligence Fred Burton examines the sophisticated      
   surveillance operation that led to the raid on Osama bin Laden's safe      
   house in Pakistan. Click here to view.                                     
                           Save on annual memberships                         
   Connect with usTwitterFacebookYoutubeSTRATFOR Mobile                       
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   &amp; security related updates, join our free email list.                      
                                                                              
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                                www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-06-16 20:04:08</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/491081_re-surveillance-of-bin-laden-s-courier-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>service@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.maness@trapwire.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>492003</id>
    <title>The Geopolitics of Brazil: An Emergent Power's Struggle with Geography
</title>
    <description>    Stratfor logo                                                             
   The Geopolitics of Brazil: An Emergent Power's Struggle with Geography     
                                                                              
    July 14, 2011 | 1216 GMT                                                  
    The Geopolitics of Brazil: An Emergent Power's Struggle with Geography    
    STRATFOR                                                                  
                                                                              
    Editor*s Note: This is the 15th in a series of STRATFOR monographs on     
    the geopolitics of countries influential in world affairs.                
                                                                              
    RELATED SPECIAL TOPIC PAGE                                                
      * Geopolitical Monographs: In-depth Country Analysis                    
                                                                              
    South America is a geographically challenging land mass. The bulk of its  
    territory is located in the equatorial zone, making nearly all of the     
    northern two-thirds of its territory tropical. Jungle territory is the    
    most difficult sort of biome to adapt for human economic activity.        
    Clearing the land alone carries onerous costs. Soils are poor. Diseases   
    run rampant. The climate is often too humid to allow grains to ripen.     
    Even where rivers are navigable, often their banks are too muddy for      
    construction, as with the Amazon.                                         
                                                                              
    As the tropics dominate South America, the continent*s economic and       
    political history has been problematic. Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname and   
    French Guiana are fully within the tropical zone, and as such always      
    have faced difficulties in achieving economic and political stability,    
    though the discovery of [IMG] oil in Venezuela improved that country*s    
    economic trajectory. Throughout the tropical zones nearly all of the      
    population lives within a few dozen kilometers of the coast. For the      
    most part, however, those coasts are not naturally sculpted to encourage  
    interaction with the outside world. Natural ports * deepwater or          
    otherwise * are few and far between.                                      
                                                                              
    There are, however, two geographic features on the continent that break   
    this tropical monotony.                                                   
                                                                              
    The first is the Andean mountain chain. The Andes run along the           
    continent*s western edge, giving rise to a handful of littoral and        
    transmountain cultures physically separated from the continent*s eastern  
    bulk and thus largely left to develop according to their own devices.     
    Colombia and Ecuador straddle the tropics and the Andes, with their       
    economic cores not being coastal, but instead elevated in the somewhat    
    cooler and dryer Andean valleys, which mitigates the difficulties of the  
    tropics somewhat. Farther south are the arid transmountain states of      
    Peru and Bolivia. Peru has achieved some degree of wealth by largely      
    ignoring its own interior except when seeking resource extraction         
    opportunities, instead concentrating its scant capital on the de facto    
    city-state of Lima. In contrast, landlocked Bolivia is trapped in a       
    perennial struggle between the poor highlanders of the Altiplano and the  
    agriculturally rich region of the lowland Medialuna.                      
                                                                              
    The Geopolitics of Brazil: An Emergent Power's Struggle with Geography    
    (click here to enlarge image)                                             
                                                                              
    The combination of mountains and jungle greatly limits the degree to      
    which states in this arc * from French Guiana in the northeast to         
    Bolivia in the southwest * can integrate with each other or the outside   
    world. In all cases, basic transport is extremely difficult; tropical     
    diseases are often a serious issue; there are few good ports;             
    agricultural development is both more labor and capital intensive         
    compared to more traditional food-producing regions; humidity and heat    
    hinder conventional grain production; and the ruggedness of the           
    mountains raises the costs of everything.                                 
                                                                              
    Historically, the only way these states have achieved progress toward     
    economic development is by accepting dependence on an external (and       
    usually extraregional) power willing to provide investment capital.       
    Without this, these states simply lack the capital generation capacity    
    to meet their unique and staggering infrastructure challenges.            
    Consequently, the broader region is severely underdeveloped, and the      
    residents of most of these states are generally quite poor. While some    
    may be able to achieve relative wealth under the right mix of             
    circumstances, none has the ability to be a significant regional * much   
    less global * power.                                                      
                                                                              
    The second exception to the tropical dominance of South America is the    
    temperate lands of the Southern Cone. Here, the summers are dry enough    
    to allow traditional grains to ripen, while cooler weather * especially   
    winter insect kills * limits the impact of disease outbreaks. Unlike the  
    scattered populations of the Andean region, the Southern Cone is one      
    large stretch of mostly flat, moderately watered territory. The bulk of   
    that land lies in Argentina, with significantly smaller pieces in         
    Uruguay, Paraguay and Brazil. The only remaining country on the           
    continent is where the temperate Southern Cone overlaps with the Andean   
    mountain zone: Chile, one of the world*s most physically isolated         
    states. It takes longer to fly from Santiago to Lima than it does to fly  
    from London to Moscow, and longer to sail from Santiago to Buenos Aires   
    than it does from New York City to London. Chile consequently does not    
    participate significantly in the politics of the Southern Cone.           
                                                                              
    In stark contrast to the mountains and jungle that dominate the majority  
    of South America, the Southern Cone flatlands are the best land on the    
    continent. Their flatness, combined with their natural prairies, lowers   
    the cost of construction, and the temperate climate makes them rich       
    agricultural zones. But the real advantage lies in the region*s river     
    structure. The Parana, Uruguay and Paraguay rivers combined with the Rio  
    de la Plata * a massive estuary that empties into the Atlantic between    
    contemporary Buenos Aires and Montevideo * are all navigable for a great  
    portion of their length.                                                  
                                                                              
    Moving goods via water costs about 10 to 30 times less than moving the    
    same goods by truck. Such riverine transport systems therefore generate   
    massive amounts of capital with little difficulty compared to             
    land-transport systems. Collectively, this river network overlaying the   
    agricultural flatlands is known as the Rio de la Plata region.            
                                                                              
    These rivers are particularly valuable for agricultural regions such as   
    the Rio de la Plata. Wheat, corn, soybeans and the like suffer from a     
    weak value-to-bulk ratio * oftentimes transporting them great distances   
    can only be done at an economic loss. Water transport allows for          
    foodstuffs to cheaply and easily be brought not just downstream but to    
    the ocean and then the wider world. Russia presents a strong contrast to  
    the Rio de la Plata region. Its famines often directly result from the    
    inability to bring foodstuffs to the cities efficiently because its       
    navigable rivers are not well situated * meaning foodstuffs must be       
    transported by truck or train.                                            
                                                                              
    The most important geographic fact on the continent is that the Rio de    
    la Plata region*s rivers are navigable both independently and             
    collectively via a system of canals and locks. Only the Greater           
    Mississippi River network of North America has more kilometers of         
    interconnected maritime transport options. This interconnectivity allows  
    greater economies of scale, greater volumes of capital generation and     
    larger populations, and it greatly enhances the establishment of a        
    single political authority. In contrast, the separate rivers of the       
    North European Plain have given rise to multiple, often mutually          
    hostile, nationalities. Argentina controls the mouth of the Rio de la     
    Plata and the bulk of the navigable stretches of river. This leaves the   
    Uruguayans, Paraguayans and Brazilians at a disadvantage within the       
    region. (Brazilian power is greater overall than Argentine power, but     
    not in the critical capital-generating geography of the Rio de la Plata   
    region.)                                                                  
                                                                              
     The Brazilian Geography                                                  
                                                                              
    Most of Brazil*s territory does not lie within these Southern Cone        
    lands. Instead, roughly one-third of Brazil*s 8.5 million square          
    kilometers is composed of vast tracts of challenging jungle, with the     
    Amazon Basin being the most intractable of all. While there are many      
    potential opportunities to exploit minerals, they come with daunting      
    infrastructure costs.                                                     
                                                                              
    The Geopolitics of Brazil: An Emergent Power's Struggle with Geography    
    (click here to enlarge image)                                             
                                                                              
    South of the Amazon Basin lies a unique region known as the cerrado, a    
    vast tropical savannah with extremely acidic soils. However, because the  
    heat and humidity is far less intense than in the jungle, the cerrado     
    can be made economically viable by brute force. The cost, however, is     
    extreme. In addition to the massive infrastructure challenges * the       
    cerrado lacks any navigable rivers * the land must in essence be          
    terraformed for use: cleared, leveled and fertilized on an industrial     
    scale to make it amenable to traditional crops. There is also the issue   
    of distance. The cerrado is an inland region, so shipping any supplies    
    to or produce from the region comes at a hefty transport cost. Brazil     
    has spent the greater part of the past three generations engaged in       
    precisely this sort of grand effort.                                      
                                                                              
    Luckily for the Brazilians, not all of Brazil*s lands are so difficult.   
    About 600,000 square kilometers of Brazil is considered traditionally     
    arable. While this represents only 7 percent of the country*s total land  
    area, that still constitutes a piece of arable territory roughly the      
    size of Texas or France. All of that land lies in the country*s southern  
    reaches. But much of that territory lies in the interior, where it is     
    not easily accessible. Brazil*s true core territories are less than one   
    quarter of this 7 percent, about the size of Tunisia or Montana,          
    straddling the area where the tropical zone gives way to the temperate    
    lands of the Southern Cone. These areas formed the core of Brazil*s       
    original settlements in the early colonial period, and these lands        
    formed the population core of Brazil for the first three centuries of     
    its existence. As such, the topography of these lands has had an almost   
    deterministic impact on Brazil*s development. Understanding that          
    topography and its legacy is central to understanding what is empowering  
    Brazil to evolve * and hampering Brazil from evolving * into a major      
    power in the years to come.                                               
                                                                              
    Two obvious characteristics stand out regarding this core Brazilian       
    region. First, it is semi-tropical, so development in the region faces a  
    somewhat less intense version of the challenges described above for       
    fully tropical zones. Second, and more critical, the Brazilian interior   
    is a raised plateau * called the Brazilian Shield * which directly abuts  
    Brazil*s Atlantic coast along nearly the entirety of the country*s        
    southeastern perimeter. The drop from the shield to the Atlantic is       
    quite steep, with most of the coast appearing as a wall when viewed from  
    the ocean * the source of the dramatic backdrops of most Brazilian        
    coastal cities. This wall is called the [IMG] Grand Escarpment, and most  
    Brazilian cities in this core region * Rio de Janeiro, Vitoria, Santos    
    and Porto Alegre * are located on small, isolated pockets of relatively   
    flat land where the escarpment falls to the sea.                          
                                                                              
    The primary problem this enclave topography presents is achieving         
    economies of scale. In normal development patterns, cities form around    
    some sort of core economic asset, typically a river*s head of navigation  
    (the maximum inland point that a sizable cargo vessel can reach) or a     
    port or nexus of other transport options. The city then spreads out,      
    typically growing along the transport corridors, reflecting that access   
    to those transport corridors provides greater economic opportunities and  
    lower economic costs. So long as somewhat flat land remains available,    
    the city can continue growing at low cost. In time, nearby cities often   
    start merging into each other, allowing them to share labor, capital,     
    infrastructure and services. Economies of scale proliferate and such      
    megacities begin generating massive amounts of capital and skilled labor  
    from the synergies.                                                       
                                                                              
    Megacities * such as New York City, Los Angeles, London, Paris, Tokyo,    
    Buenos Aires, Istanbul and Shanghai * form the core of the global         
    economic system. This *standard* development pattern has been repeated    
    the world over. The premier American example is the *megalopolis* region  
    of cities on the American Eastern Seaboard stretching from Washington to  
    Boston, encompassing such major locations as Baltimore, Philadelphia,     
    New York, Hartford and Providence. In Europe, a similar conglomeration    
    contains the many cities of the German Rhine Valley. In both cases,       
    major and minor cities alike merge into an urban/suburban conglomeration  
    where the resources of each location are shared with and bolstered by     
    the others. In all such cases, the common characteristic is the           
    existence of land upon which to expand.                                   
                                                                              
    The Geopolitics of Brazil: An Emergent Power's Struggle with Geography    
    (click here to enlarge image)                                             
                                                                              
    That land is precisely what Brazil*s core territory lacks. The Grand      
    Escarpment comes right down to the ocean throughout the Brazilian         
    southern coast. Brazil*s cities, therefore, are forced to develop on      
    small enclaves of relatively flat land in the few areas where the         
    escarpment has not pushed all the way to the sea. The lack of a coastal   
    plain means no small cities can form between the major cities. Any        
    infrastructure built by one city never serves another city, and linking   
    the cities requires climbing up the escarpment onto the shield itself,    
    traversing the shield and then going back down the escarpment to the      
    other cities, a difficult and costly endeavor in terms of both time and   
    engineering. Because Brazil does not have direct access to the navigable  
    rivers of the Rio de la Plata region, it has to scrounge for capital to   
    apply to this capital-intensive project. Absolute limitations on land     
    area also drive up the cost of that land, injecting strong inflation      
    into the mix right at the beginning and raising development costs.        
    Enclavic geography is not something that can be *grown out of* or         
    *developed around.* The topography is constant, and these cities simply   
    cannot synergize each other * a modern, low capital-cost city cannot be   
    built on the side of a cliff. Moreover, since these enclaves are          
    Brazil*s primary points of interaction with the outside world, they       
    represent a constant, permanent restriction on Brazil*s ability to grow.  
                                                                              
    The Geopolitics of Brazil: An Emergent Power's Struggle with Geography    
    (click here to enlarge image)                                             
                                                                              
    To this day, Brazil has very few major highways and railways because      
    even where the topography does allow for the possibility, the costs       
    still are much higher than in flatter lands farther south. The country    
    lacks a major coastal road system, as the escarpment is simply too steep  
    and too close to the coast. Following the Brazilian coastline makes       
    clear how Brazil*s coastal roads are almost exclusively two-lane, and     
    the coastal cities * while dramatic * are tiny and crammed into whatever  
    pockets of land they can find. And most of the country is still without   
    a rail network; much of that soy, corn and rice that the country has      
    become famous for exporting reaches the country*s ports by truck, the     
    most expensive way to transport bulk goods.                               
                                                                              
    The Geopolitics of Brazil: An Emergent Power's Struggle with Geography    
    STRATFOR photo                                                            
    The Grand Escarpment drops almost directly down to the coast in most      
    portions of southern Brazil. This photograph vividly illustrates how the  
    Grand Escarpment starkly limits Rio de Janeiro*s development. Brazil*s    
    southern coastal cities have developed along similar patterns, lacking    
    the traditional hinterlands of major cities elsewhere in the world.       
                                                                              
    The one exception to the rule is Sao Paulo state, centered on the city    
    of the same name. Only Sao Paulo has sufficient flat lands to follow a    
    more standard development pattern and thus achieve any economies of       
    scale. It is also the only portion of Brazil that possesses anything      
    resembling the modern, integrated infrastructure that follows more        
    traditional development patterns. Unsurprisingly, this single state       
    accounts for more than one-third of Brazil*s gross domestic product       
    (GDP) despite only serving as home to one-fifth of the country*s          
    population. As recently as 1950, Sao Paulo state produced more than       
    one-half Brazil*s economic output.                                        
                                                                              
    The Geopolitics of Brazil: An Emergent Power's Struggle with Geography    
    (click here to enlarge image)                                             
                                                                              
    Unfortunately, Sao Paulo is not a coastal city. The escarpment at Sao     
    Paulo is too steep and the coastal enclave * the port of Santos * is too  
    small to take full advantage of Sao Paulo*s potential. Sao Paulo sits at  
    an elevation of about 800 meters atop the Brazilian Shield, some 70       
    kilometers inland. (In comparison, the U.S. city at the Mississippi       
    River*s head of navigation, Minneapolis, Minn., sits at less than 200     
    meters elevation despite being 3,000 kilometers inland.) This sharp       
    elevation change helps mitigate the climatic impact of the region*s       
    near-tropical conditions that predominate on the coast, but comes at the  
    dauntingly high capital and engineering costs required to link the city   
    and state to the coast. So while Sao Paulo is indeed a major economic     
    center, it is not one deeply hardwired into Brazil*s coastal cities or    
    to the world at large.                                                    
                                                                              
    The lack of economies of scale and the difficulty of integrating local    
    infrastructure forces bottlenecks. The worst of those bottlenecks occur   
    where the coastal enclaves interact with the outside world * in Brazil*s  
    ports * and it is here that Brazil faces the biggest limiting factor in   
    achieving economic breakout. Brazil is correctly thought of as a major    
    exporter of any number of raw commodities, but the hostility of its       
    geography to shipping and the inability of its cities to integrate have   
    curtailed port development drastically. The top seven Brazilian ports     
    combined have less loading capacity than the top U.S. port, New Orleans,  
    and all Brazilian ports combined have considerably less loading capacity  
    than the top two U.S. ports, New Orleans and Houston.                     
                                                                              
    Building a more sustainable Brazil cannot be done on the coast; there     
    simply is not enough land there to feed a growing nation. But climbing    
    up the Grand Escarpment to develop the interior introduces a new          
    problem.                                                                  
                                                                              
    The coastal ridge at the top of the Grand Escarpment also divides         
    drainage basins. Within a few dozen kilometers of the southeastern        
    coast, South American rivers flow west, not east, ultimately emptying     
    into the Rio de la Plata network. As the early Brazilian cities           
    attempted to develop interior hinterlands, those hinterlands found        
    themselves more economically intertwined with Argentine and Paraguayan    
    lands to the south than with their parent communities to the east. For    
    many in the interior it was cheaper, easier and faster to float products  
    down the rivers to the megaport of Buenos Aires than to lug them by land  
    up and over the Brazilian coastal mountain ranges and down the Grand      
    Escarpment to the middling disconnected ports of coastal Brazil.          
    Similarly, it was far easier to sail down the Atlantic coast and up the   
    Rio de la Plata Basin onto the Parana than expend the cost of building    
    on-land infrastructure. Brazil*s early efforts to develop integration     
    within its own territories paradoxically led to an economic dependence    
    upon its southern neighbors that weakened intra-Brazilian relationships.  
                                                                              
    Those southern neighbors took advantage of this situation, leaving        
    Brazil struggling to control its own land. Unlike the U.S. independence   
    experience, in which all of the colonies were part of the same            
    administration and battled as one against their colonial overlord, South  
    America was a patchwork of different entities, all of which fought for    
    their independence in the same 15-year period. Paraguay achieved          
    independence in 1811, Argentina in 1818 and Brazil in 1823. Immediately   
    upon independence, the region*s new states struggled for control of the   
    waterways that held the key to being the dominant, integrated economic    
    power of the Southern Cone. Since Brazil was the last of the region*s     
    states to break away from its former colonial master, it had the least    
    time to consolidate in preparation for post-independence wars, and its    
    enclave nature made such consolidation far more challenging than that of  
    other Southern Cone states. Brazil accordingly did very badly in the      
    ensuing conflicts.                                                        
                                                                              
    Those early wars resulted in Uruguay*s separation from Brazil and the     
    removal of Brazilian authority to above the heads-of-navigation on all    
    of the Rio de la Plata region*s rivers. All of the rivers* navigable      
    lengths were now shared between Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay, leaving  
    capital-poor Brazil sequestered in its highland semi-tropical             
    territories. Argentina and Paraguay rose rapidly in economic and          
    military might, while Brazil languished with little more than plantation  
    agriculture for more than a century.                                      
                                                                              
    The next two generations of regional competition focused on Argentina     
    and Paraguay, which struggled for control of the Rio de la Plata          
    maritime system. That competition came to a head in the 1864-1870 War of  
    the Triple Alliance in which Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay eventually     
    won after a brutal struggle with Paraguay. Fully 90 percent of the male   
    Paraguayan population died in the conflict, nearly destroying Paraguay    
    as a country; its demography did not finally rebalance until the 1990s.   
    With Brazil*s wings clipped and its more serious regional rival all but   
    destroyed, Argentina fashioned Paraguay and Uruguay into economic         
    satellites, leveraging the region*s river systems to become a global      
    economic power. By 1929 it had the world*s fourth-highest per capita      
    GDP. Brazil, in contrast, remained impoverished and relatively isolated   
    for decades.                                                              
                                                                              
    Nor was Brazil united. Between the economic pull of Argentina and its     
    rivers and the disconnected nature of the enclavic coast, regionalism     
    became a major feature of Brazilian politics. Contact between the         
    various pieces of Brazil was difficult, while contact with the outside    
    world was relatively easy, making integration of all kinds * political,   
    economic, and cultural * often elusive.                                   
                                                                              
    Regionalism remains a major issue in Brazilian politics, with strong      
    rivalries triggering divisions among states and between states and the    
    federal government. The preponderance of power at the beginning of the    
    20th century lay in the hands of the wealthier states, Minas Gerais and   
    Sao Paulo. For many years, control of the central government alternated   
    between the two states. This left Brazil*s remaining states isolated      
    politically, prodding them to seek economic opportunities globally while  
    defining their identities locally. For the better part of a century,      
    *Brazil* was less a national concept as much as it was a geographic       
    concept. Rio de Janeiro and Rio Grande do Sul states, for example, in     
    many ways started acting like independent countries. This state of        
    affairs lasted until very recently.                                       
                                                                              
     Brazil*s Inflation Trap                                                  
                                                                              
    Brazil*s biggest problem * which began with the colonial settlement       
    process and continues to the current day * is that it is simply not       
    capable of growth that is both sustained and stable. Economic growth      
    anywhere in the world is inflationary: Demand for arable land, labor,     
    transport, capital and resources pushes the prices of all of these        
    inputs up. Growth in most places can continue until those inflationary    
    pressures build and eventually overtake any potential benefit of that     
    growth. At that point, growth collapses due to higher costs and a         
    recession sets in. Brazil*s burden to bear is that land, labor,           
    transport infrastructure and capital exist in such extreme scarcity in    
    Brazil that any economic growth almost instantly turns inflationary.      
    Arable land, transport infrastructure and capital have already been       
    discussed, but labor requires a more thorough examination, particularly   
    given contemporary Brazil*s population of 194 million.                    
                                                                              
    The labor issue is rooted in Brazil*s oligarchic economic system,         
    something that also has a geographic origin. Brazil suffers from low      
    capital generation and high capital costs * the opposite of most of the   
    world*s economic power centers. In those power centers, the relative      
    omnipresence of capital allows a democratization of economic power.       
                                                                              
    In the American experience, anyone could easily venture out of the        
    cities into the lands of the Greater Mississippi Basin and, within a      
    year or two, be exporting agricultural produce to both American and       
    European cities. In Brazil, by contrast, massive amounts of capital were  
    needed simply to build roads up the Grand Escarpment. The prospect of a   
    common citizen establishing an independent economic existence in that     
    sort of environment was unrealistic, as the only people who had the       
    capacity to *build* Brazil were those who entered the country with their  
    own pre-existing fortunes. So while the early American experience * and   
    the industrialization that followed * was defined by immigrants from      
    Europe*s rural poor seeking land, Brazil was started on its path by rich  
    Portuguese settlers who brought a portion of their fortunes with them.    
                                                                              
    The American culture of small businesses long predates independence,      
    whereas its Brazilian equivalent did not take root until the immigration  
    waves of the late 19th century. As could be expected in a location where  
    capital was rare but the needs for capital were high, these oligarchs     
    saw no reason to share what infrastructure they built with anyone * not   
    even with each other.                                                     
                                                                              
    Complicating matters was that early Brazil did not have full access to    
    that France-sized piece of arable land * most of it lay in the interior   
    on the wrong side of the Grand Escarpment. The tropical climate           
    drastically limited agricultural options. Until the mid-20th century,     
    the only crops that could be grown en masse were plantation crops, first  
    and most famously sugar, but in time coffee, citrus, bananas and          
    tobacco. But unlike more traditional cereal crops that only require a     
    few weeks of attention per year, such tropical crops are far more labor   
    intensive in their planting, tending, harvesting and transport. Tobacco   
    had to be cut and dried; sugar had to be cut, cooked and refined.         
    Whereas a grain field can be quickly harvested and dumped into a truck,   
    harvesting and transporting bananas, for example, takes much longer.      
                                                                              
    These characteristics impacted Brazil in two critical ways.               
                                                                              
    First, the capital required for these plantations was so great that       
    smallholders of the American model were largely shut out. No              
    smallholders meant no small towns that could form kernels of education    
    and industrialization. Instead, plantations meant company towns where     
    economic oligarchies gave birth to political oligarchies. In time, the    
    political and economic power imbalance would provide the foundation for   
    the Brazilian military governments of the 20th century. Even in modern    
    times, Brazil*s geography continues to favor oligarchic plantation        
    farming to family farming. At present, 85 percent of farms in the United  
    States * a country with a reputation for factory farming * are 500 acres  
    or fewer, whereas 70 percent of Brazilian farms are 500 acres or more.    
                                                                              
    The Geopolitics of Brazil: An Emergent Power's Struggle with Geography    
                                                                              
    Time has not moderated this trend, but rather deepened it. In the latter  
    half of the 20th century, Brazil launched a massive agricultural          
    diversification effort that included the clearing of vast swaths of land  
    in the interior, some of it in the cerrado and some as far inland as the  
    Bolivian border. Among other agricultural products, some of these new     
    lands were appropriate for corn and soybeans, crops normally quite        
    amenable to farmers of a more modest capital base. But the cerrado        
    requires massive inputs before agriculture can be attempted, and the      
    interior lands are often in excess of 1,000 kilometers from Brazil*s      
    perennially overworked ports. The twin development and infrastructure     
    costs wound up reinforcing the oligarchic nature of the Brazilian         
    agricultural system to the point that the average *new* Brazilian farm    
    is six times the size of the farms of *old* Brazil.                       
                                                                              
    Second, plantation agriculture calls for unskilled labor, a pattern that  
    continues into the modern day. Unlike the more advanced New World         
    colonies * which enjoyed access to easier transport and thus more         
    capital, yielding the kernels of urbanization, an educational system and  
    labor differentiation * Brazil relied on slave labor. It was the last     
    country in the Western Hemisphere to outlaw slavery, a step it took in    
    1888.                                                                     
                                                                              
    A lack of skilled labor means, among other things, a smaller middle       
    class and lower internal consumption than other states at a similar       
    level of development. Consequently, Brazil has a small number of landed   
    elite and a large majority of poor. As of 2011, fully one in four         
    Brazilians eke out a living in Brazil*s infamous slums, the favelas.      
    According to the Gini coefficient, a sociological measure of income       
    inequality, Brazil has been the most unequal of the world*s major states  
    for decades.                                                              
                                                                              
    Taken together, Brazil faces inflationary barriers at every stage of the  
    growth cycle. Starting a business requires capital, which is in short     
    supply and held by a privileged class. Shipping goods requires scarce     
    infrastructure, which is insufficient to needs, expensive and often       
    owned by a privileged class. Any increase in demand for either of these   
    inputs puts upward pressure on the associated costs. Expanding a          
    business requires skilled labor, but there is not a deep skilled labor    
    pool, so any hiring quickly results in wage spirals. And holding          
    everything back is the still-disconnected nature of the Brazilian         
    cities, so there are few economies of scale. More than anywhere else in   
    the world, growth triggers inflation * which kills growth.                
                                                                              
    Consequently, Brazil has been characterized by below-average growth and   
    above-average inflation for centuries and thus has traditionally been     
    underindustrialized compared to most other developing states. Even        
    before the oligarchs* interests are factored in, any infrastructure       
    projects that make sense will be linked to projects with good foreign     
    cash-generating potential, which quickly narrows the list of likely       
    projects to agriculture and mining (all commodities are U.S.-dollar       
    denominated).                                                             
                                                                              
    As such, Brazil has had little choice but to focus on the production or   
    extraction of primary commodities such as sugar and iron ore. Such        
    capital-intensive industries not only reinforce the oligarchic system     
    but also skew the economy*s output. As of 2010, fully 70 percent of       
    Brazil*s exports are dollar-denominated, with 45 percent of exports by    
    value consisting of raw commodities. This may help Brazil*s               
    (dollar-denominated) bottom line, but it does nothing to address its      
    chronic infrastructure, labor, inequality or inflationary restraints.     
                                                                              
    It is thus unsurprising that Brazil has not yet emerged as a major        
    global power. It cannot economically expand without killing itself with   
    inflation. Its skilled labor pool and capital markets are woefully        
    insufficient for its needs, and the oligarchs have a vested interest in   
    keeping things that way. Even efforts to expand out of the country*s      
    various traps have in many ways only entrenched the system. Moreover,     
    what growth Brazil has enjoyed in recent years has been because of the    
    combination of a broad rise in commodity prices and heavy foreign         
    investment into Brazilian infrastructure to get at those commodities,     
    not because of anything Brazil has done.                                  
                                                                              
    This hardly means that Brazil is either a failed state or that its past   
    is condemned to be its future. What this does mean is that if Brazil is   
    to rise as a major power something has to change. And two things have     
    changed, in fact: Argentina, and the way Brazilians view their country.   
                                                                              
     Modern Argentina*s Decline                                               
                                                                              
    Argentina has everything necessary to become a major global power. Its    
    lands are flat and temperate, its rivers are navigable and                
    interconnected, and it enjoys the buffer of distance from major           
    competitors and ample resources to fuel a rise to greatness. Indeed,      
    throughout its first century of independence, Argentina moved from        
    victory to victory * first over Brazil, then Paraguay, and then into the  
    ranks of the world*s richest states. Standing in Argentina*s shadow, it   
    is no surprise that Brazilians developed the tendency to be humble and    
    passive, unwilling to challenge their rich and dynamic southern           
    neighbor.                                                                 
                                                                              
    In the aftermath of the War of the Triple Alliance, Argentina enjoyed a   
    historic boom. European immigrants arrived en masse, and the              
    opportunities of the Rio de la Plata allowed for the creation and         
    metabolization of massive amounts of capital. Alone among the Latin       
    American states, Argentina generated a substantial middle class. But      
    Argentina had two weaknesses, and from roughly 1930 on, Argentina*s       
    trajectory has been downward.                                             
                                                                              
    First, unlike in Anglo America, land in Argentina was not widely          
    distributed to individual landholders. Like elsewhere in Latin America,   
    Argentina began with an oligarchic landholder system that left most of    
    the population economically dependent on a small, wealthy elite. A        
    successful backlash to this autocratic structure came in the form of      
    labor unrest that propelled the populist Peron regime to power.           
                                                                              
    The legacy of Peronism is the enhancement of autocratic power by          
    political mobilization of the lower and middle classes. This power has    
    remained consolidated under the control of a strongman * or in the case   
    of the contemporary government, a strongwoman * whose influence over the  
    institutions of the state is near total. Other institutions are much      
    weaker than the presidency, and as a result, policymaking in Argentina    
    is highly dependent on the individual in power at any given time.         
    Populist demands have overpowered more conventional policies for decades  
    on end, resulting in Argentina*s slow and irregular decline for nearly a  
    century.                                                                  
                                                                              
    Second, the vast distance of Argentina from the rest of the world         
    greatly shaped Argentine perceptions. Tucked away at the bottom of the    
    Atlantic, Argentina is one of the world*s most sequestered states. Once   
    Brazil and Paraguay had been contained as local threats, the next         
    closest threat to Argentina was the United Kingdom, some 12,000           
    kilometers away. As in the United States, such large distances allowed a  
    large degree of cultural insulation and national savings. (There was no   
    need to maintain a large standing military.)                              
                                                                              
    But there is a critical difference between the two experiences. The       
    Americans were some 7,000 kilometers closer to potential rivals and thus  
    on occasion were reminded that they are not, in fact, alone. Events such  
    as the 1814 burning of Washington, the European willingness to ignore     
    the Union blockade during the Civil War, the 1941 bombing of Pearl        
    Harbor and, most recently, 9/11 unsurprisingly have had a major impact    
    on the American psyche. Each shocked the Americans out of complacency     
    and spurred them to overreact to the sudden *surprise* that the rest of   
    the world exists. In those subsequent spasms of activity, the Americans   
    remake themselves. This process entails a great deal of disruption in     
    the United States and abroad, but it keeps the Americans adaptable.       
                                                                              
    Argentina*s greater distance from world affairs means that they have      
    suffered no such revivals following intrusions into their geographic      
    utopia. The War of the Triple Alliance is now 140 years past. The war     
    over the Falklands Islands, known to Argentines as the Malvinas, was the  
    one notable instance in which Argentina sought interaction with the       
    outside world. Buenos Aires initiated conflict with a far superior        
    military power * the United Kingdom * and the resulting political and     
    military defeat crushed the standing of the Argentine military, heavily   
    contributing to the decline and fall of the military government.          
    Although the Falklands War had a huge political impact, it did not pose   
    the kind of challenge to Argentine core elements of prosperity that       
    would require a concerted effort at reform and self-renewal. As a         
    result, Argentina has neglected to address national problems that have    
    crept up on it over the decades.                                          
                                                                              
    Recent developments underline this tendency. An economic crisis in        
    2001-2002 placed a new populist government in power that defaulted on     
    the country*s debt, which freed Buenos Aires of the need to make          
    interest payments. Rather than seize the opportunity to rebalance the     
    Argentine economic and political system onto a sounder footing that       
    leveraged the country*s geographic blessings, the state instead spent     
    the savings on mass subsidies to bolster its populist credentials. High   
    growth resulted, but the policies were only paid for by hollowing out     
    the country*s capital stock and distorting the economy to the point       
    where fundamental industries * from cattle farming to wheat               
    growing to energy production * have now begun to fail. High taxes         
    combined with high consumption encouraged by large subsidies and price    
    controls have crippled business owners and agriculturalists alike. The    
    subsidies have proven particularly problematic, as they have locked the   
    government into ever-increasing expenditures expressly linked to the      
    populist patronage the people demand as their right. Consequently,        
    Buenos Aires only wields limited influence in South America and little    
    to none beyond the continent.                                             
                                                                              
    With all that said, Argentina is still the power in South America with    
    the clearest, most likely growth path. It still holds the Rio de la       
    Plata*s river network and it still holds the Pampas, the best farmland    
    in the Southern Hemisphere. What it cannot seem to figure out is how to   
    make use of its favorable position. So long as that remains the case *    
    so long as the natural dominant power of the Southern Cone remains in     
    decline * other powers have at least a chance to emerge. Which brings us  
    back to Brazil.                                                           
                                                                              
     Modern Brazil*s Success                                                  
                                                                              
    Brazil*s challenges are legion, but at core they are as simple as these   
    two issues: Brazil*s geography works against it, and its economy is       
    trapped by inflation. The Brazilians have spent decades struggling        
    against these two facts, and in the past generation they have finally     
    achieved significant progress.                                            
                                                                              
       Brazil*s Struggle With Geography                                       
                                                                              
    As discussed, Brazil*s core coastal territories present the country with  
    a variety of difficulties that no amount of local development can         
    overcome. Yet Brazil does sport a broad swath of arable land in its       
    interior which is flatter, more temperate and largely unified             
    topographically * the trick is uniting the coastal territories on the     
    east side of the Grand Escarpment with the interior in a way that does    
    not undermine the authority of the state. From the 1870s until the 1980s  
    Brazilian development strategy therefore was relatively straightforward:  
    expand the country*s infrastructure, kilometer by painstaking kilometer,  
    into those interior arable zones. The sheer size of the territories that  
    could be put under plow partially overcame the inflationary and           
    transport bottlenecks that limited Brazil*s core coastal regions.         
                                                                              
    While early expansion certainly weakened central authority by             
    encouraging economic links to Argentina, as that expansion built upon     
    itself and developed economies of scale, interior Brazil became a         
    formidable economic engine in and of itself. And while Brazil*s gaze      
    still lingered on the attractiveness of the Rio de la Plata*s transport   
    network, Brazil was sizable enough to have independent economic heft.     
    Under those circumstances, association with coastal Brazil was an         
    economic complication rather than an economic catastrophe.                
                                                                              
    By the 1970s several interlocking factors started solidifying the many    
    interior success stories:                                                 
                                                                              
      * Argentina*s deepening malaise lessened the attractiveness of the Rio  
        de la Plata*s rivers.                                                 
      * Brazil finally cleared enough interior lands so that more easily      
        shippable conventional cereals were starting to be produced in large  
        quantities, producing a more positive value-bulk ratio in the         
        transport of Brazilian agricultural produce that somewhat eased its   
        transport problem.                                                    
      * Brazil*s interior expansion took it right up to the borders of        
        Bolivia, Paraguay and Uruguay, and after some tentative moments,      
        Brazilian infrastructure and capital started moving across the        
        borders and integrating the agricultural lands of the border states   
        into the broader Brazilian economy. Argentina did little to resist.   
        Bit by bit Argentina lost influence in the three states and by 2011   
        all three have become de facto Brazilian economic satellites.         
      * Foreign investors saw sufficient potential in the Brazilian interior  
        that they were willing to invest increasing sums of their own         
        capital in underwriting both the country*s interior development       
        projects and its efforts to assimilate the three border states.       
                                                                              
    Surprisingly, the clear-cutting of the interior provided the basis of     
    Brazilian political liberalization. One of the many downsides of an       
    oligarchic economic system is that politics tend to become as             
    concentrated as wealth. Yet in clearing the land Brazil created           
    artificial trade ways * roads * that allowed some Brazilians to strike    
    out on their own (though they were not as efficient as rivers).           
    Currently there are some 2.6 million landholders with farms of between 5  
    and 100 acres (anything less is a subsistence farm, while anything more   
    verges into the category of high-capital factory farms). That is 2.6      
    million families who have a somewhat independent economic * and           
    political * existence. Elsewhere in the world, that is known as a middle  
    class. The environmental price was steep, but without this very new       
    class of landholder, Brazilian democracy would be on fairly shaky         
    ground.                                                                   
                                                                              
    The interior expansion effort solved none of the coastal bottleneck       
    issues, but the constellation of forces certainly conspired to ease       
    Brazil*s path. But perhaps the most important aspect of this interior     
    push was that Brazil ceased to be simply a geographic concept. The        
    rising importance of the interior * best symbolized by the relocation of  
    the political capital to the interior city of Brasilia in 1960 * diluted  
    the regional leanings of the coastal cities. The lands of the interior    
    saw themselves first and foremost as Brazilian, and as that identity      
    slowly gained credence, the government finally achieved sufficient        
    gravitas and respect to begin addressing the country*s other major        
    challenge.                                                                
                                                                              
       Inflation                                                              
                                                                              
    No economic strategy can allow Brazil to achieve the magic mix of         
    locally determined, strong growth with low inflation. At most, Brazil     
    can have two of the three. For most of the 20th century, Brazilian        
    governments tended to favor growth as a means of containing social        
    unrest and mustering resources for the government, even at the cost of    
    inflation. But since inflation tends disproportionately to harm the       
    poor, the already-wide income gap between the oligarchs and the rest of   
    the population only widened. Since 2006, strong global commodity prices   
    have allowed the Brazilian economy to grow fairly rapidly, but those      
    commodity prices are based on factors wholly beyond Brazil*s control. As  
    with every other commodity cycle, this one, too, will come to an end,     
    triggering all the economic dislocation with which Brazilians are all     
    too familiar.                                                             
                                                                              
    Unless of course, the government changes the game * which it has done.    
                                                                              
    The macroeconomic strategy of the current regime, along with that of a    
    string of governments going back to the early 1990s, is known             
    colloquially as the *real plan* (after Brazil*s currency, the real). In   
    essence, the strategy turned Brazil*s traditional strategy of growth at   
    any cost on its head, seeking instead low inflation at any cost.          
    Subsidies were eliminated wholesale across the economy, working from the  
    understanding that consumption triggered inflation. Credit * whether      
    government or private, domestic or foreign * was greatly restricted,      
    working from the assumption that the Brazilian system could not handle    
    the subsequent growth without stoking inflation. Government spending was  
    greatly reduced and deficit spending largely phased out on the            
    understanding that all forms of stimulus should be minimized to avoid     
    inflation.                                                                
                                                                              
    The Geopolitics of Brazil: An Emergent Power's Struggle with Geography    
    (click here to enlarge image)                                             
                                                                              
    In practice, this led to a series of policies that most economists        
    interpreted as rather orthodox, consisting of extremely low government    
    debt; extremely restrained government activity; and extremely well        
    capitalized, heavily regulated and conservative banks. These strict       
    inflation control policies have achieved a high degree of economic        
    stability. Inflation plunged from more than 2,000 percent a year to the   
    single digits. But those gains came at a cost: Between 1980 and 2005,     
    Brazil has shifted from one of the world*s fastest growing economies      
    with one of the highest inflation rates to one of the lowest inflation    
    economies with one of the lowest (if somewhat irregular) growth rates.    
                                                                              
    The Geopolitics of Brazil: An Emergent Power's Struggle with Geography    
    (click here to enlarge image)                                             
                                                                              
    But the real plan is not an orthodox economic policy. Economic orthodoxy  
    stems from the belief that constrained credit, limited government and     
    low inflation are policy tools designed to maximize growth. Orthodox      
    policies are means to an end. The real plan approaches the question from  
    the other side, in which strong growth is the enemy because it causes     
    runaway inflation that destroys economic, political and social            
    stability. As such, constrained credit, limited government and low        
    inflation are the goals of the real plan, not the means. The distinction  
    is sufficiently critical to bear repeating: Growth is the enemy of the    
    real plan, not its goal.                                                  
                                                                              
    What results is not so much a difference between perception and reality   
    but between what the Brazilian government intended and what the           
    international markets perceive those intentions to be. Investors across   
    the world believe the real plan*s ends are in actuality its means * and   
    they interpret those ends as being in perfect sync with their interests.  
    Thus, foreign investors have been voting for Brazil and the real plan     
    with their money. Inward investment to Brazil is at historical highs,     
    with the Brazilian Central Bank projecting the country*s 2011 foreign     
    direct investment take at a stunning $60 billion.                         
                                                                              
    All this money is working against the real plan*s goals: introducing      
    credit where the government seeks to constrain credit, overfunding banks  
    that the government wants to keep tightly regulated, encouraging          
    spending that the government deems dangerous. Brazilians may be feeling   
    richer because of the cheap, imported credit, but for government          
    planners the environment is becoming ever more dangerous, threatening     
    the hard-won stability that the real plan seeks to sustain. At the time   
    of this writing, annualized inflation has edged up to 6 percent, right    
    at the government*s redline.                                              
                                                                              
    The true success of the real plan lies in achieving economic stability    
    and, most of all, control. Brazil*s geographic and social challenges are  
    daunting, and no government could hope to address them competently if it  
    could not first master local macroeconomic forces. In this, the real      
    plan has performed to design. While hardly dead, inflation is restrained  
    * and that has given the government space to start addressing the myriad  
    other issues the country faces.                                           
                                                                              
    As with the interior expansion plan, the success of the real plan has     
    changed how Brazilians feel about their country. When inflation burned    
    through poor citizens* savings, when it destroyed livelihoods and         
    condemned tens of millions to lives of poverty, faith in central          
    institutions was lacking. The real plan may not promise great growth or   
    even great wealth, but it has delivered price stability * and with price  
    stability people can lay at least a limited groundwork for their own      
    futures. Savings holds value from year to year. Purchasing power is       
    constant. These are basic economic factors that most of the developed     
    world takes for granted but which are relatively new to the current       
    generation of Brazilians * and Brazilians rightly credit their central    
    government with achieving them.                                           
                                                                              
    Just as the interior expansion effort provided all of the Brazilian       
    states with a vested political interest in the Brazil project, the real   
    plan has provided all of the Brazilian states with a vested economic      
    interest in the central government. It is not so much that the real plan  
    removed the structural and geographic causes of Brazil*s inflation        
    problem * which is impossible to do * but it proved to Brazilians that    
    their country could be economically stable and that their government      
    could act in the interests of Brazil in its totality rather than simply   
    for whichever state happened to hold the presidency at the time.          
                                                                              
     Brazil*s Geopolitical Imperatives                                        
                                                                              
    Geopolitical imperatives are broad, strategic goals a country must        
    pursue if it is to achieve security and success. These are                
    non-ideological paths determined by the geography of a given country and  
    by the geography of its neighbors. Geopolitical imperatives typically     
    nest: The second imperative is dependent upon the first imperative, the   
    third upon the second, and so on. This is not the case for Brazil,        
    however.                                                                  
                                                                              
    Since Brazil occupies such a difficult geography, it has traditionally    
    been a weak state that has lacked the resources and institutional         
    capacity to greatly impact the world around it. Its first three           
    imperatives reflect this. As such, the order in which those imperatives   
    might be attained is largely determined by the constellation of forces    
    in Brazil*s near abroad * factors for the most part beyond the            
    Brazilians* ability to manipulate * rather than any decision-making       
    process in Brasilia. Brazil can only push to achieve these imperatives    
    as circumstances beyond its control allow.                                
                                                                              
       Imperative One: Protect the Coast                                      
                                                                              
    The Brazilian southern coast contains the country*s core territories.     
    However, the ruggedness of that coast and the disconnected enclave        
    nature of the core territories mean that infrastructure linking the       
    coastal territories will not ensure mutual defense. The only way Brazil   
    can protect its core itself is to cultivate a naval force of sufficient   
    strength to deter would-be predatory powers. Without such a navy, Brazil  
    would shatter into a series of (most likely mutually hostile)             
    city-states. And without a navy any Brazilian exports are utterly at the  
    mercy of more maritime-oriented entities.                                 
                                                                              
    But Brazil is capital poor and cannot afford such a navy. Historically,   
    this has led Brasilia to seek alliances with whatever the dominant        
    Atlantic power has happened to be in order to hold the traditionally      
    more powerful Argentina in check. In the first half of the 19th century,  
    the Brazilians sought out a favorable relationship with the British. But  
    the deeper expression of this imperative came from Brazil*s enthusiastic  
    embracing of the United States* Monroe Doctrine. Nearly alone among       
    Western Hemispheric powers, Brazil expressed enthusiasm for the American  
    neo-colonial policy of barring European states from the Western           
    Hemisphere, largely because it could not stand up to those powers         
    without assistance.                                                       
                                                                              
    Even today, Brazil*s navy is unable to patrol the Brazilian               
    coastline reliably beyond the Brazilian core territories. Thus, Brazil    
    maintains close * if not exactly friendly * relations with the United     
    States both to ensure that America never views Brazil as a state of       
    concern and as a hedge against other potential threats.                   
                                                                              
       Imperative Two: Selectively Expand into the Interior                   
                                                                              
    Developing (or outsourcing) a navy is one means of protecting Brazil*s    
    core. Another is to expand that core into new areas not so exposed to a   
    hostile navy. In this, Brazil faces several challenges. The coastal       
    enclaves are not large enough to generate their own economies of scale,   
    so reaching inland requires the expenditure of massive resources Brazil   
    simply does not have. As such, Brazil*s inland expansion has been         
    halting, slow and piecemeal and driven by an often badly coordinated mix  
    of government, oligarchic and foreign interests. The obvious target for   
    this expansion is into the subtropical and temperate regions of the       
    country*s south, not the tropical zone of the north.                      
                                                                              
    However, the farther these new territories are from the coast, the more   
    integrated they will naturally become into the capital-rich lands of the  
    Rio de la Plata region to the south. Ironically, in achieving strategic   
    depth and a better economic position, Brazil risks its territory          
    becoming more fully integrated into its neighbors, as opposed to the      
    Brazilian core.                                                           
                                                                              
    In this challenge, however, also lies an opportunity. When the economies  
    and populations of Brazil*s interior regions are small, they naturally    
    gravitate towards Argentina*s sphere of influence. But as they grow they  
    eventually reach a critical mass in terms of influence, which brings us   
    to the third imperative.                                                  
                                                                              
       Imperative Three: Expand into the Rio de la Plata Region               
                                                                              
    The solution lies in increasing Brazilian influence to the south so that  
    those territories ultimately answer to Brazilian economic and political   
    decision-making. Like the first two imperatives, this requires decades    
    of slow efforts to make any progress. It has only been in the past        
    generation that Brazil has created enough capital to encroach into the    
    Argentina-Brazilian buffer states of Bolivia, Paraguay and Uruguay.       
    Brazil has invested heavily into Bolivian energy and agriculture. Most    
    Bolivian foodstuffs are now sold to or through Brazil to the outside      
    world. Natural gas * responsible for by far the largest component of      
    Bolivian state income * is under the direct management of Brazilian       
    state-owned energy company Petroleos Brasileiros (Petrobras). In          
    Paraguay, Brazilians have migrated in significant numbers and are the     
    dominant investors in the economy * particularly in electricity, as the   
    two are partners in the Itaipu Dam. Brazilian (and Argentine) cash fuels  
    Uruguay*s vibrant financial sector, and Brazilian-born Uruguayan          
    citizens now own a majority of Uruguay*s farmland.                        
                                                                              
    The next logical question * something the normally nonconfrontational     
    Brazilians are currently struggling with * is what to do once economic    
    control has been seized but political control is not yet in place. Here   
    the Brazilians come up against an odd cultural barrier: Nonconfrontation  
    is hardwired into the Brazilian psyche. Even today, with the Brazilian    
    economy growing and Argentina continuing to struggle, there exists a      
    belief in government circles that Brazil needs to concentrate on          
    striking an equilibrium with Argentina, with perhaps the inclusion of     
    even Chile in a trilateral balance of power in the region (the Chileans   
    for their part want little to do with the Southern Cone and even less to  
    do with the Argentine-Brazilian balance of power).                        
                                                                              
    For all practical purposes, Brazil has already secured dominance in the   
    three buffer states * Uruguay, Bolivia and Paraguay are all but economic  
    satellites of Brazil * but in light of Brazil*s historically passive      
    foreign policy these states rarely shirk from demanding better terms out  
    of Brasilia. Uruguay charges steep fees on Brazilian cargo. Paraguay      
    recently was able to triple the cost of electricity produced by the       
    Itaipu Dam, Brazil*s single-largest source of electricity, and routinely  
    receives financial aid from Brazil and Mercosur. The Bolivian government  
    regularly confronts Medialuna landowners who are for all intents and      
    purposes are fully integrated into the Brazilian economy, and it has not  
    been shy about its attempts to nationalize energy assets owned by         
    Brazilian interests. If Brazil is going to make its gains stick, at some  
    point it will need to devise a strategy for formalizing its control of    
    the buffer states. That means, among other things, learning to be less    
    accommodating.                                                            
                                                                              
    There also looms a much more significant * potentially bruising *         
    competition. Brazil cannot be truly secure until at the very least it     
    controls the northern shore of the Rio de la Plata. That requires         
    significant penetration into Paraguay and de facto control of Uruguay     
    and of select pieces of northern Argentina. Were that to happen,          
    Brazil*s interior would have direct access to one of the world*s most     
    capital-rich regions. The marriage of such capital generation capacity    
    to Brazil*s pre-existing bulk will instantly transform Brazil into a      
    power with global potential.                                              
                                                                              
    But not before. Without these territories, the Southern Cone balance of   
    power remains in place no matter how weak Argentina becomes. So long as   
    Argentina can exercise functional independence, it persists as a          
    possible direct threat to Brazil, constrains Brazil*s ability to          
    generate its own capital and exists as a potential ally of extraregional  
    powers that might seek to limit Brazil*s rise.                            
                                                                              
    The Geopolitics of Brazil: An Emergent Power's Struggle with Geography    
    (click here to enlarge image)                                             
                                                                              
       Imperative Four: Challenge the Dominant Atlantic Power                 
                                                                              
    Should Brazil manage to consolidate control over the Rio de la Plata      
    basin the game changes greatly. At this point Brazil is no longer a       
    vulnerable, enclave-based state facing extreme challenges to its          
    development. Instead, Brazil would control the majority of the continent  
    and command broad swaths of easily developed arable land. Instead of      
    cowering in fear of regional naval powers, it would be the dominant       
    regional naval power. With that transformation, Brazil would not see      
    extraregional navies as friends protecting it from Argentina but as       
    enemies seeking to constrain its rise.                                    
                                                                              
    Obviously, this imperative will be well beyond Brazil*s reach for many    
    decades. Not only is Brazil*s navy far smaller than that of states with   
    one-third its population, it is nowhere close to commanding the Rio de    
    la Plata region. Until that happens, Brazil has no choice but to align    
    with whatever the Atlantic*s dominant power happens to be. To do          
    otherwise would risk the country*s exports and its overall economic and   
    political coherence.                                                      
                                                                              
     Contemporary Challenges: Escaping the Trap                               
                                                                              
    Contemporary Brazil faces three interlocking problems that pose severe    
    structural challenges to all of the economic stability it improbably has  
    attained: an overvalued currency, Mercosur and China.                     
                                                                              
    As to currency, investor enthusiasm for Brazil*s recent stability and     
    theoretical growth prospects has flooded the country with external        
    funding. In addition to complicating always-critical inflation concerns,  
    all that capital is having a demonstrable impact on the Brazilian         
    currency, pushing the real up by more than 50 percent in just the past    
    two years, and doubling it since 2003.                                    
                                                                              
    For Brazil*s commodity exports * all of which are dollar-denominated *    
    this has no demonstrable impact, but for the country*s industrial         
    exports this currency appreciation is disastrous. Because Brazil*s        
    infrastructure is inadequate and the country is capital poor, Brazil      
    produces very little that is high value-added; Such industries are the    
    providence of capital-rich, low-transport-cost economies such as Germany  
    and Japan. Instead, Brazil*s predominantly low- and medium-value-added    
    industries compete heavily on price. A 50 percent increase in the         
    currency largely guts any price competitiveness enjoyed by Brazil*s       
    sheltered industries. The only Brazilian firms benefiting from the mix    
    of impacts are those few high-skill firms that happen to price their      
    products in U.S. dollars, most notably oil firm Petrobras and aerospace   
    firm Embraer * which, while world class by any definition, are not        
    representative of the broader Brazilian economic structure.               
                                                                              
    Second, Brazil has limited itself with the highly distorting and          
    damaging trade network known as Mercosur. Recall that an oligarchy has    
    long dominated the Brazilian economy, controlling most of the country*s   
    scarce capital and enjoying a privileged economic and political           
    position. Unlike most trade agreements * which are negotiated by          
    governments on behalf of the corporate world * Brazil*s oligarchic        
    background meant these oligarchs negotiated Mercosur on behalf of the     
    Brazilian government.                                                     
                                                                              
    This abnormal process radically changed the end result. A normal trade    
    deal removes barriers to trade and exposes companies in all the affected  
    countries to competition from each other. In Mercosur*s case, the         
    various Brazilian industrialists were able to block off entire swaths of  
    the economy for themselves, largely eliminating foreign competition. As   
    such, Brazil*s industrial sector is shielded from competition with        
    outside forces * and even from most other forces within Mercosur. Add in  
    a 50 percent currency appreciation and Brazil*s industrial base is now    
    one of the world*s least competitive.                                     
                                                                              
    Third, Brazil has allowed competition from the one power most capable of  
    destroying that sheltered industrial base: China. Throughout the past     
    decade, Brazilian governments have sought Chinese investment largely to   
    help alleviate some of the country*s transport bottlenecks. The Chinese,  
    hungry for Brazilian resources, have happily complied. But that           
    infrastructure development has come at the cost of granting Chinese       
    firms Brazilian market access, and that access * and even the investment  
    * is damaging the Brazilian system.                                       
                                                                              
    At its core it is a difference in development models. The Chinese system  
    is based on ultraloose capital access aimed at maximizing employment and  
    throughput, regardless of the impact on profitability and inflation *     
    about as far as possible from the real plan. This has had a number of     
    negative side effects on the Chinese system, but as regards Brazil, it    
    has resulted in a flood of subsidized Chinese imports.                    
                                                                              
    The China trap is catching Brazil in three ways. The first is direct      
    competition for market share in Brazil. The Chinese yuan is de facto      
    pegged to the dollar, so Brazilian goods are now even less competitive    
    versus Chinese goods on the domestic market (even before one takes into   
    account that Chinese goods are for all intents and purposes subsidized).  
    Second, China is engaging in indirect competition for market share by     
    shipping goods into Brazil via other Mercosur member states * a fact      
    that has prompted Brazil to raise non-tariff barriers that penalize       
    Mercosur partners in an effort to stem Chinese competition. Third, the    
    Chinese are among those international investors whose cash is pushing     
    the value of the real ever upward. With every dollar the Chinese invest   
    into Brazilian commodity production, the real goes just a bit higher and  
    Chinese goods edge out their Brazilian counterparts just a bit more.      
                                                                              
    Resisting these trends will require some clever and quick policymaking    
    along with a remarkable amount of political bravery. For example,         
    scrapping Mercosur and adopting free market policies would throw the      
    Brazilian market open to global competition. That would decimate          
    Brazil*s inefficient industrial base in the short run with the expected   
    knock-on impact on employment, making it a policy the oligarchic and      
    powerful labor unions alike would oppose. But it is difficult to imagine  
    Brazilian industry progressing past its current stunted level if it is    
    not forced to play on a larger field, and weakening the hold of the       
    oligarchs is now at least a century overdue. Two more years of a rising   
    currency and an enervating Chinese relationship will surely destroy much  
    of the progress the Brazilians have painstakingly made in recent          
    decades.                                                                  
                                                                              
    The current president, Dilma Rousseff, is a non-charismatic, no-nonsense  
    technocrat well known for demanding respect and results, a good person    
    to have in office given the nature of Brazil*s [IMG] contemporary         
    challenges. Success in any free market-oriented reforms would require     
    brutal and rapid changes in Brazil*s standard operating procedures *      
    changes that would undoubtedly come with serious political risks. The     
    alternative is to continue to pursue protectionist, defensive policies    
    while allowing international forces to shape Brazil rather than Brazil    
    developing the means to shape international forces. This could well be    
    the path Brazil follows. After all, the damage being inflicted by         
    Mercosur and the China relationship are direct outcomes of policies       
    Brazil chose to follow, rather than anything produced by Brazil*s         
    geography.                                                                
                                                                              
    We do not mean to belittle Brazilians* achievements to date. Taming       
    their lands, taming inflation and crafting a series of economic sectors   
    fully deserving of international acclaim are no small feats. But          
    insufficient infrastructure, an ossified oligarchy, a shallow skilled     
    labor pool and the looming question of Argentina continue to define the   
    Brazilian position. The maintenance of that position remains largely      
    beyond the control of the Brazilian government. The economy remains       
    hooked on commodities whose prices are set far beyond the continent.      
    Their ability to supply those commodities is largely dependent upon       
    infrastructure in turn dependent upon foreign financing. Even Brazilian   
    dominance of their southern tier is as much a result of what Argentina    
    has done wrong as opposed to what Brazil has done right.                  
                                                                              
    For Brazil to emerge as a significant extraregional power, Brazilians     
    must first address a lengthy list of internal and regional issues. These  
    include * but are hardly limited to * moving beyond their oligarchic      
    economic system, ensuring that Argentina will never again threaten it     
    and formalizing their dominant position in the border states of Bolivia,  
    Paraguay, and Uruguay. These cannot be accomplished easily, but doing so  
    is the price Brazilians must pay if they are to be the masters of their   
    own destiny rather than simply accepting an environment crafted by        
    others.                                                                   
                                                                              
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</description>
    <date>2011-07-19 15:04:26</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-02 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/492003_the-geopolitics-of-brazil-an-emergent-power-s-struggle-with.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>krijgsman@sympatico.ca</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>495983</id>
    <title>Fwd: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
</title>
    <description>   Ryan Sims
   Global Intelligence
   STRATFOR
   T: 512-744-4087
   F: 512-744-0570
   ryan.sims@stratfor.com
   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
     Date: June 16, 2011 1:04:08 PM CDT
     To: STRATFOR &lt;service@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: RE: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
     Kudos*a great explanation for those who don't understand or appreciate
     the efforts that go into a real intel op*as opposed to the Hollywood BS
     everyone seems to expect.
      
     I remind people all the time that we got the courier's name back in '03
     -- and thank goodness didn't take the typical "cuff 'em and drag him in"
     approach many had advocated. We stayed patient and threw real analytical
     support into this one. Took some time -- but the patient oriental
     approach usually pays bigger dividends.  M
      
     From: STRATFOR [mailto:mail@response.stratfor.com] 
     Sent: Thursday, June 16, 2011 11:45 AM
     To: Michael Maness
     Subject: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
      

View on Mobile Phone | Read the online version.                                  

      

     STRATFOR Weekly Intelligence Update                                      
     Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier: Special Edition of Above the        
     Tearline                                                                 
     The weekly Above the Tearline video series is part of our members-only   
     content. We hope you enjoy this exclusive chance to access it free.      
                                                                              
     [IMG]                                                                    
     Watch this exclusive edition of Above the Tearline                       
                                                                              
             Above the Tearline: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier          
                                                                              
                                                                              
                                                                              
     Vice President of Intelligence Fred Burton examines the sophisticated    
     surveillance operation that led to the raid on Osama bin Laden*s safe    
     house in Pakistan. Click here to view.                                   
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</description>
    <date>2011-06-16 20:08:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/495983_fwd-surveillance-of-bin-laden-s-courier-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>responses@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>520140</id>
    <title>[Custom Intelligence Services] Greece and Military risks
</title>
    <description>Luke Sullivan sent a message using the contact form at  
https://www.stratfor.com/contact.

Dear Sir,

I work with Macquarie Group ( Australian listed investment bank ) and we have  
clients that would be interested to hear from a well versed commentator on  
Greece that can talk through the history of the military's involvement in  
government. We would sometimes go back to the brookings institute to engage  
professionals on these sorts of topics but on this occasion I thought that i  
would reach out to you. We would engage in a fee for service arrangement if  
we thik there is interest. Thanks
</description>
    <date>2011-11-02 15:38:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-07 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/520140_-custom-intelligence-services-greece-and-military-risks-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>service@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Luke.Sullivan@Macquarie.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>558496</id>
    <title>email of Fred Burton
</title>
    <description>Hi.

I am looking for the e-mail of Mr. Burton. Would be glad, if you can send it.

Thank you.



Sincerely,

Veni Markovski

Senior Advisor for International Projects
&lt;http://www.daits.government.bg/&gt;State Agency for IT and Communications
&lt;http://www.government.bg/&gt;Council of Ministers | REPUBLIC OF BULGARIA
----------------
email: &lt;mailto:veni@veni.com&gt;veni@veni.com | email2: 
&lt;mailto:veni@daits.government.bg&gt;veni@daits.government.bg
office: +1-646-873-7708 | office2: +359-2-401-8008 | fax: +1-212-319-5955
Bulgarian Consulate General, 121 E 62nd Str., New York, NY 10021, USA
</description>
    <date>2008-08-10 23:45:37</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/558496_email-of-fred-burton-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>service@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>veni@daits.government.bg</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>573022</id>
    <title>Cancellation of our subscription
</title>
    <description>   Dear Sir or Madam,

    

   I would like to cancel my Stratfor membership. The membership details are:

   First name: Barbara

   Last name: Heckl

   Street address 1: Stiftung Wissenschaft Politik

   Street address 2: Ludwigkirchplatz 3-4

   City: Berlin

   Postal Code: 10719

   Country: Germany

   Email: barbara.heckl@swp-berlin.org

   Membership term: monthly, starting 03/25/09

    

   With kind regards

   Barbara Heckl

   Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik

   Bibliothek

   Ludwigkirchplatz 3-4

   10719 Berlin

   Germany
</description>
    <date>2009-04-23 12:57:21</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-20 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/573022_cancellation-of-our-subscription-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>service@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Barbara.Heckl@swp-berlin.org</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>589605</id>
    <title>Re: WEB ALERT! Stratfor Corp Site
</title>
    <description>Mr. Faron,

We read about you in a newspaper("O Globo" - 16/07/2006) here, in Rio de 
Janeiro, Brazil, and they called you as "Private CIA". They wrote that 
you prevised the invasion of Lebanon by Israel.
After that we would like to know your services, specially for Public 
Safety, Law Enforcement,Organized Crime, Military Power, IT, 
Telecomunications, C4ISR, SIGINT, COMINT, Terrorism and 
Counterterrorism, with details and prices.
I am a Major from Rio de Janeiro Military Police Department, in Brazil, 
working as Intelligence Advisor, and Manager of R&amp;D from 
DETEL(www.detel.rj.gov.br)of CMGC(www.gabmilitar.rj.gov.br).
I received e-mails from your directors Mike Parks and Fred Burton in 
order to use a premium subscribe for a short period.
We would like to understand how you analyze Brazilian questions if you 
don´t work with our language.

Major Cajueiro
Intelligence Advisor
Manager of R&amp;D
DETEL

Stratfor Service escreveu:
&gt;
&gt; Maj. Cajueiro,
&gt;
&gt; Stratfor only prints in English, so I can confidently say that piece 
&gt; is not our work. I have sent this on to my analysts to see of they can 
&gt; provide any feedback.
&gt;
&gt; If you find that you need further assistance, the Customer Service 
&gt; Department is available by phone at 1-877-9STRAT4 between the hours of 
&gt; 8am and 5pm CST, Monday through Friday or by email at 
&gt; service@stratfor.com &lt;mailto:service@stratfor.com&gt;.
&gt;
&gt; Faron Sagebiel
&gt;
&gt; Stratfor Customer Service
&gt;
&gt; Ph: 512-744-4087
&gt;
&gt; Email: service@stratfor.com &lt;mailto:service@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;
&gt; * *
&gt;
&gt; *Get Free Time on Your Subscription with Stratfor’s New Referral 
&gt; Rewards Program! *
&gt;
&gt; */Ask me how you can have extra days, months or years added to your 
&gt; subscription with Stratfor’s new Referral Rewards Program! Or find out 
&gt; at www.stratfor.com/referral &lt;http://www.stratfor.com/referral&gt;. /*
&gt;
&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt; *From:* Strategic Forecasting Web Site [mailto:noreply@stratfor.com]
&gt; *Sent:* Wednesday, August 16, 2006 5:37 PM
&gt; *To:* Information - Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt; *Subject:* WEB ALERT! Stratfor Corp Site
&gt;
&gt; **Submit_Date:** 08-16-06 17:24
&gt;
&gt; **FormID:** Contact_Us_StratforCom
&gt;
&gt; **Salutation:** Mr
&gt;
&gt; **FirstName:** Fábio
&gt;
&gt; **LastName:** Cajueiro
&gt;
&gt; **Phone:** 55-21-2299-2111
&gt;
&gt; **Email:** fabcaj@policiamilitar.rj.gov.br
&gt;
&gt; **HowDidYouHear:** Magazine
&gt;
&gt; **Message:**
&gt;
&gt; I received an e-mail from a military officer here in Brazil, with this 
&gt; message:
&gt; "Exclusivo – Os estrategistas do Palácio do Planalto entraram em 
&gt; pânico com o teor explosivo de um documento também enviado ao Senado, 
&gt; na quarta-feira passada, pela entidade denominada “Para o Bem da 
&gt; América Latina”, abastecida de informações pelo serviço internacional 
&gt; da CIA, a agência central de inteligência dos Estados Unidos. A 
&gt; entidade enviou ao presidente Lula da Silva e aos senadores um dossiê 
&gt; denunciando que a corrupção no Brasil está financiando o crime 
&gt; organizado e o terrorismo.
&gt;
&gt; O documento cita nominalmente os responsáveis por uma grande 
&gt; movimentação de “dinheiro sujo” que sai do Brasil para o exterior. 
&gt; Foram denunciados: três governadores, 25 deputados, 178 prefeitos, 133 
&gt; desembargadores e 245 juízes. A entidade calcula que a rede de 
&gt; corrupção conte com 2.500 funcionários dos poderes Judiciário, 
&gt; Legislativo e Executivo. O maior problema é que o esquema estaria 
&gt; financiando a ação de grupos terroristas, que promovem as recentes 
&gt; ações de guerrilha urbana no País.
&gt;
&gt; O documento ao Senado deixa bem claro: “O relatório é para alertar 
&gt; todos os senadores sobre a real situação que a Presidência da 
&gt; República está omitindo, por conta da campanha eleitoral. A maior 
&gt; cidade da América do Sul está sitiada por uma célula terrorista. 
&gt; Esperam-se ataques de grandes proporções até as eleições”. O quadro 
&gt; preocupa a “Águia”. A Secretária de Estado dos EUA, Condoleezza Rice, 
&gt; manifestou semana passada, por telefone, ao presidente George W. C. 
&gt; Bush, sua preocupação com situação política e do avanço do terror no 
&gt; Brasil.
&gt;
&gt; Jornais norte-americanos já colocam o Brasil em sexto lugar na 
&gt; preocupação com redes de terrorismo. Os EUA temem que células 
&gt; terroristas que atuam junto com a organização criminosa Primeiro 
&gt; Comando da Capital tenham ligações com grupos muçulmanos e da Europa, 
&gt; como o IRA (Exército Republicano Irlandês) e o ETA (grupo separatista 
&gt; basco). Os guerrilheiros daqui do Brasil estariam recebendo ordens 
&gt; vindas da Colômbia e da Venezuela. As armas viriam do Paraguai, onde 
&gt; foi recentemente desbaratada uma “célula de fornecedores”. O armamento 
&gt; entraria pelos estados do Paraná e Mato Grosso.
&gt;
&gt; Uma prova da ação organizada dos terroristas, nos moldes europeus ou 
&gt; do Oriente Médio, foi o seqüestro do repórter da Rede Globo em São 
&gt; Paulo, Gulherme Portanova. Ele foi libertado aos 30 minutos desta 
&gt; segunda-feira, no bairro do Morumbi, na Zona Sul de São Paulo. Ficou 
&gt; em poder dos bandidos deste às 8 horas da manhã de sábado, quando foi 
&gt; dominado junto com o auxiliar técnico Alexandre Calado, que foi solto 
&gt; antes para cumprir uma missão dos bandidos.
&gt;
&gt; A libertação do jornalista dependeria da divulgação de um vídeo, de 3 
&gt; minutos e 5 segundos de duração, por suposta ordem do PCC. A Globo 
&gt; obedeceu seguindo os conselhos de sua consultoria de segurança, que é 
&gt; ligada ao serviço secreto inglês. No DVD, exibido pela TV Globo de São 
&gt; Paulo, à 0h 28min de domingo, um criminoso faz críticas ao sistema 
&gt; penitenciário brasileiro. O marginal, supostamente ligado ao PCC, 
&gt; defende um mutirão para revisão de penas, melhores condições 
&gt; carcerárias, e contra o RDD (Regime Diferencial Disciplinado).
&gt;
&gt; O PCC paulista já é considerado uma célula terrorista mais forte que o 
&gt; Hezbollah que é combatido por Israel, no Líbano. O relatório da ONG 
&gt; ligada à CIA e à Direção Nacional de Inteligência dos EUA ressalta que 
&gt; o presidente Bush está preocupado com Cuba, com a Venezuela e agora 
&gt; com o Brasil. Não será surpresa se, ao longo desta semana, o 
&gt; presidente Lula da Silva receber uma ligação da Casa Branca, 
&gt; advertindo sobre o problema, e cobrando uma solução enérgica contra a 
&gt; organização dos terroristas, sobretudo na tríplice fronteira entre o 
&gt; Brasil, a Argentina e o Paraguai.
&gt;
&gt; Ataque ao governo petista
&gt;
&gt; O relatório da “águia” deixa claro aos senadores e ao próprio governo 
&gt; brasileiro que as recentes mega-operações da Polícia Federal, com 
&gt; prisões de desembargadores, políticos e até de militares, causou 
&gt; estarrecimento ao serviço de inteligência norte-americano.
&gt;
&gt; A entidade considera evidentes os indícios de exploração política nas 
&gt; operações da PF, “em função da situação de um governo que está 
&gt; enlameado na corrupção e que nos últimos momentos começa uma caça às 
&gt; bruxas, jogando com relatórios sobre denúncias de corrupção que há 
&gt; anos já se sabia”.
&gt;
&gt; O relatório aponta que a situação é muito mais grave do que a indicada 
&gt; pelo Secretário de Segurança de São Paulo, Saulo Abreu de Castro, que 
&gt; foi ameaçado de processo por sugerir que haveria ligações entre o 
&gt; Partido dos Trabalhadores e o Primeiro Comando da Capital – fato que 
&gt; foi repudiado pelo presidente Lula da Silva e por seu partido."
&gt;
&gt; Do you know or may write something about this?
&gt; I don´t translate this in order to show you as I received.
&gt; If you can send me an answer without breaking your national security 
&gt; or protocols, we appreciate.
&gt;
&gt; Sicerely,
&gt;
&gt; Major Cajueiro
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; **OtherComment:** Military and Law Enforcement Inquiry
&gt;
&gt; ----------------------------------------------------------------------
&gt; IP Address: 200.222.27.249
&gt;
&gt; TimeStamp: Wed, 16 Aug 2006 17:37:02 -0500
&gt;
&gt; UserAgent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows; U; Windows NT 5.1; pt-BR; rv:1.8.0.6) 
&gt; Gecko/20060728 Firefox/1.5.0.6
&gt;
</description>
    <date>2006-08-17 22:55:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-02 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/589605_re-web-alert-stratfor-corp-site-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>service@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>fabcaj@policiamilitar.rj.gov.br</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>658178</id>
    <title>WATCH ITEM - INDIA TRAIN CRASH
</title>
    <description>   We are looking at whether or not the Maoists claim responsibility or if
   there is evidence they were involved.  They had stated they would not
   attack trains at all after the wreck two months ago that killed 145
   people.  Thanks

   61 people killed in train crash in east India
   http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100719/ap_on_re_as/as_india_train_crash;_ylt=AqTVxwwQulFSbl9befRD7shvaA8F;_ylu=X3oDMTJsNzBtOGt2BGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMTAwNzE5L2FzX2luZGlhX3RyYWluX2NyYXNoBGNwb3MDMQRwb3MDMgRzZWMDeW5fdG9wX3N0b3J5BHNsawM2MXBlb3BsZWtpbGw-

   AP

      India train crash leaves dozens dead Play Video AFP  - India train
   crash leaves dozens dead

       * Trains collide in east India Slideshow:Trains collide in east India
       * Two trains collide in eastern India Play Video Video:Two trains
   collide in eastern India Reuters

   Indians and rescue workers gather at the site of an accident at Sainthia
   station, about 125 miles (200 kilometers) north of Calcutta, India,
   Monday, J AP - Indians and rescue workers gather at the site of an
   accident at Sainthia station, about 125 miles (200 ...
   By MANIK BANERJEE, Associated Press Writer Manik Banerjee, Associated
   Press Writer - 37 mins ago

   CALCUTTA, India - A speeding express train plowed into a stationary
   passenger train in eastern India on Monday, killing 61 people in a crash
   so powerful it thrust the roof of one car onto an overpass. Officials said
   they could not rule out sabotage.

   Residents crawled over the twisted wreckage trying desperately to free
   survivors before rescue workers arrived with heavy equipment to cut
   through the metal.

   Railway Minister Mamata Banerjee, who rushed to the site, raised the
   possibility the crash could have been another case of sabotage, two months
   after Maoist rebels were blamed for a derailment that killed 145 people.

   "We have some doubts in our mind" about whether it was an accident, she
   said.

   The crash happened about 2 a.m. when the Uttarbanga Express slammed into
   the Vananchal Express as it left the platform at Sainthia station, about
   125 miles (200 kilometers) north of Calcutta.

   The accident destroyed two passenger cars and a luggage car, turning them
   into a tangle of twisted metal. The passenger cars were reserved for those
   on the cheapest tickets and such carriages are usually packed to capacity.

   The force of the crash was so intense the roof of one car landed on an
   overpass above the tracks. Local residents climbing through the debris
   searching for survivors were later joined by rescue workers using heavy
   equipment to cut through the metal.

   "I was sleeping when I felt a huge jolt and heard a loud noise and then
   the train stopped," passenger Lakshman Bhaumik told local television.
   Bhaumik survived with minor injuries.

   Rescuers recovered 61 bodies from the crash site and 125 other people were
   injured, said Surajit Kar Purkayastha, a top police official. The two
   drivers of the Uttarbanga Express were among the dead, Banerjee said.

   Rescue teams arrived about three hours after the accident, a local
   resident said. Before that locals scrambled to help survivors out of the
   trains and to pull out bodies.

   "For many hours it was just the local residents helping and it was very
   difficult to help without any equipment," the unidentified man told NDTV
   television channel.

   Police official Humayun Kabir told NDTV, however, rescue workers reached
   the site within an hour of the crash.

   By late Monday afternoon, rescue operations were nearly complete, said
   Samir Goswami, a railway spokesman. Cranes and laborers were working to
   remove the mangled coaches so the tracks could be cleared and train
   services resumed.

   The disaster was the second major train crash in the state of West Bengal
   in the past two months. On May 28, a passenger train derailed and was hit
   by an oncoming cargo train in a crash that killed 145 people. Authorities
   blamed sabotage by Maoist rebels for that crash.

   Accidents are common on India's sprawling rail network, one of the world's
   largest, with most blamed on poor maintenance.
</description>
    <date>2010-07-19 17:21:10</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-17 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/658178_watch-item-india-train-crash-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>michael.wilson@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>monitors@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>660547</id>
    <title>USA/UNITED STATES/AMERICAS
</title>
    <description>   Table of Contents for United States

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   1) Brazilian Committee Denounces US, ROK 'War Moves'
   KCNA headline: "U.S. And S. Korean Puppet Forces' War Moves Under Fire"
   2) Thai Officials Seek US Help in Finding Information Linked to Local
   Bribery Case
   Report by The Nation: "Officials seek US help in Bt64m bribery case"
   3) Northern Central America Press 10 Aug 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   4) Argentina Political and Economic Issues 10 Aug 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   5) Brazil Political &amp;amp; Economic Issues 6 Aug 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   6) Xinhua 'Analysis': Hopes High for Ending Row Between Venezuela,
   Colombia
   Xinhua "Analysis": "Hopes High for Ending Row Between Venezuela, Colombia"
   7) Indian Commentary Urges Iran To Focus on Talks To Ease Nuclear Tensions
   With West
   Commentary by Atul Aneja: Iran: the Politics of Sanctions
   8) Xinhua 'China Focus': Growth in Chinese Exports, Imports Slows in July
   Xinhua "China Focus": "Growth in Chinese Exports, Imports Slows in July"
   9) 2nd Ld: Growth in China's Exports, Imports Slows Down in July
   Xinhua: "2nd Ld: Growth in China's Exports, Imports Slows Down in July"
   10) Delhi Article Discusses India's Options on Afghanistan After Kabul
   Conference
   Article by D Suba Chandran, deputy director, Institute of Peace and
   Conflict Studies, IPCS, New Delhi: "Af-Pak Diary-IV: Indias Options after
   the Kabul Conference"
   11) US will be d riven out of Mideast - Iran president
   12) Cordoba House Controversy Shows Islamophobia Still Rages
   "Cordoba House Controversy Shows Islamophobia Still Rages" -- Jordan Times
   Headline
   13) 10 August 2010
   For a copy of the video, contact GSG_GVP_VideoOps@rccb.osis.gov or the OSC
   Customer Center at (800) 205-8615. Selected video also available at
   OpenSource.gov
   14) Afghanistan to review foreign policy after studying leaked war reports
   15) Germany Details Payments Made to Victims of Afghan Air Strike in Sep
   Corrected version: reformatting subject line: "Germany Pays Out to Afghan
   Strike Families: Ministry" -- AFP headline
   16) Pakistan Press Nawa-e Waqt 10 Aug 10
   To request additional processing, contact the OSC Customer Center at (800)
   205-8615 or OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   17) Weekly Roundup of Pan-Arab TV Talk Shows 1-7 August
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at (800) 205-8615 or
   OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   18) UK security firm was target of suicide attacks in Afghan capital
   19) Taleban claim responsibility for Kabul suicide attack - agency
   20) Germany Details Payments Made To Victims Of Afghan Strike In September
   "Germany Pays Out To Afghan Strike Families: Ministry" -- AFP headline
   21) Afghan leader sends letter to Obama urging strategy review - Afghan
   report
   22) Civil, Military Leaders Must Reciprocate UK Premier Utterance
   Article by Mir Adnan Aziz: Playing Fields of Eton
   23) Article Says Only Pakistan Can Help US, NATO Forces To Easily Leave
   Afghanistan
   Article by Umar Waqar: WikiLeaks and the last chopper
   24) Afghan news agency head criticizes NATO over civilian deaths
   25) WTO Condemns Aussie Restrictions on NZ Apples
   Unattributed article from the "Business" page: "WTO Condemns Aussie
   Restrictions on NZ Apples"
   26) Xinhua 'Roundup': Countries, UN Offer Condolences To China Over Deadly
   Mudslides
   Xinhua "Roundup": "Countries, UN Offer Condolences To China Over Deadly
   Mudslides"
   27) Press Roundup on Defense, Science, Technology 2-8 Aug 10
   The following a selection of relevant reports, editorials, and articles on
   defense, science, and technology published in two English newspapers--The
   News and Pakistan Observer--from 2 to 8 Aug:
   28) Egyptian Press 10 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from the Egyptian press on 10 August.
   To request additional processing, contact the OSC Customer Center at (800)
   205-8615 or OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   29) Syrian Press 9 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from t he Syrian press on 9 August. To
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
   30) Sanctions Force Government To Enforce Policy of Self-Sufficiency
   Unattributed news report: "Self-Sufficiency Order for Strategic Products"
   31) Business Community Not Satisfied With Pakistan-Afghanistan Transit
   Trade Pact
   Report by Mushtaq Ghumman: Controversial APTTA: Ministry not interested
   in taking Cabinet into confidence
   32) JFJB Views US Military Option Against Iran Unlikely
   Article by Tian Yuan: "Use Force or Mouth?"
   33) Gen Kayani 'Demands' ISAF, Afghanistan To Halt Militants Infiltration
   Report by Maqbool Malik: "Kayani for Halt to Militants Infiltration"
   34) ROK Defense Chief Visits Afghanistan To Encourage Troops
   Updated version: upgrading precedence, rewording headline, and adjusting
   tags; By Kim Deok-hyun: "S. Korean Defense Chief Visits Afghanistan to
   Encourage Troops"
   35) Afghan people want strong army, police before withdrawal of foreign
   forces
   36) Afghan paper calls on USA to help clean up Kabul
   37) ROK Editorial Urges Japan To Put Apology Into Action
   Editorial: "Centenary of Annexation"
   38) Afghan daily urges unity within international community on war
   strategy
   39) Palestinian Reports on Socioeconomic Projects 30 Jul - 6 Aug 10
   The following lists highlights of reports on socioeconomic projects
   carried in the Palestinian press between 31 July and 6 Aug. To request
   additional processing, or for assistance with multimedia elements, call
   OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
   40) Iraqi Kurdish Arabic Press 10 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from two Baghdad-based Kurdish
   newspapers on 10 Aug. To request additional processing, please call OSC at
   (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735, or fax (703) 613-5735.
   41) Iraqi Press 10 August 10
   The following lists selected items from the Iraqi press on 10 August. To
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
   42) Highlights of Khabat, Kurdistani Nuwe 9 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from the two leading Iraqi Kurdish
   newspapers, Khabat and Kurdistani Nuwe, on 9 August. To request additional
   processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735, or fax
   (703) 613-5735.
   43) UK Arabic Press 10 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from the UK Arabic Press on 10 Aug 10.
   To request additional processing, contact the OSC Customer Center at (800)
   205-8615 or OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   44) Highlights -- Iraqi Southern Governorates Newspapers 01 - 07 Aug
   The following lists selected items from newspapers published in the Iraqi
   southern governorates 01 - 07 Aug. To request additional processing,
   please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735, or fax (703) 613-5735.
   This product is provided by the commercial establishment MediaWatch Middle
   East, Dubai, UAE. OSC is not responsible for the editorial standards of
   this translation
   45) Tehran Commentary Argues West Imposed New Sanctions Despite Iran
   Agreeing Talks
   Unattributed commentary: "Iran's Response to Vienna Group"
   46) Vietnam Discusses Civil Nuclear Co-Op Agreement With U.S.
   Xinhua: "Vietnam Discusses Civil Nuclear Co-Op Agreement With U.S."
   47) US Agency To Provide $4 Million for Public Health Essential Services
   to Angola
   Unattributed report: "USAID's Angolan Health Services Estimated at US$4
   Million"
   48) A ustria's Schlaff Portrayed as 'Networker' With Own 'Best Interests'
   in Mind
   Report by Hedi Schneid and Thomas Seifert: "Billionaire on Delicate
   Mission" -- first paragraph is Die Presse.com introduction.
   49) Colombia, Andean Crime and Narcotics Issues 9 Aug 10
   50) Mugabe's Anti-West Remark Affects Effort To Re-Engage With EU
   Article by Njabulo Ncube: "EU Re-Engagement in Trouble: 'Go To Hell West'
   at the Centre of it"
   51) Toyota Suspends Auto Exports to Iran Over Nuclear Row
   52) Google Raided By Police on Privacy Violations
   53) Japans Health Requires a New Relationship With Washington
   "Japans Health Requires a New Relationship With Washington" -- The Daily
   Star Headline
   54) Bulgaria, World Bank Sign Memorandum on Infrastructure Development
   Cooperation
   "Prime Minister Borisov, World Bank Group Presid ent Sign Memorandum of
   Understanding for Stepping Up Cooperation in Infrastructure Development"
   -- BTA headline
   55) Somalia Daily Media Highlights 11 Aug 10
   56) Okinawa Local TV Evening News 10 Aug 10
   For a copy of the video, contact GSG_GVP_VideoOps@rccb.osis.gov or the OSC
   Customer Center at (800) 205-8615. Selected video also available at
   OpenSource.gov.
   57) New US Sanctions 'Weaponless Surgical Strike' Against Kim Jong Il
   "Korean Peninsula Watch" column by Ruriko Kubota: "Target of US 'Pinpoint'
   Attacks Money Used To Prop Up Kim Jong Il Regime"
   58) China Economic News in Brief: Jiangsu Textile Exports; Xiamen Port
   Turnover; Baotou Rare Earth Trading Center
   Xinhua: "China Economic News in Brief: Jiangsu Textile Exports; Xiamen
   Port Turnover; Baotou Rare Earth Trading Center"
   59) Foreign Donors Send Relief Items Not Cash for Flood Victims
   Report by Mehtab Haider: "Pakistan fails to get foreign aid in cash for
   flood victims"
   60) India Wonders Whether Obama To Skip Pakistan Altogether During Nov
   Asia Trip
   Report by Ramesh Ramachandran: "Will Obama do a Carter on Pak? India
   Wonders"
   61) RF MoD Budget of R2.025 Trillion for 2013 Analyzed, Spending Methods
   Criticized
   Article by Vladimir Kalinin under rubric "Realities": "Military Financial
   Dead End: Defense Ministry Will Get a Substantial Addition to the Budget,
   but Seemingly Does Not Know Where To Spend It"
   62) Hun Sen Orders Cambodian Provincial Governors To Adhere to 'One-China
   Policy'
   Report by Meng Chhai: "Cambodia Reiterates the Implementation of One-China
   Policy"
   63) US Says DPRK Artillery Fire Killed 'a Lot of' Fish
   Unattributed article: "U.S. Says N.Korean Artillery Fire 'Killed a L ot of
   Fish'"
   64) Smart Yet Resolute Reaction
   65) Is China a Guardian of North Korea?
   "Viewpoint" column by Park Sung-soo, a visiting professor of media studies
   at Myongji University: "Is China a Guardian of North Korea?"
   66) Lessons From The Korean Diaspora
   "Viewpoint" column by Song Ho-keun, a professor of sociology at Seoul
   National University and Translation by the JoongAng Daily staff: "Lessons
   From The Korean Diaspora"
   67) DPRK Radio Reports on 10 Aug DPRK-US Senior Colonel-Level Contact in
   P'anmunjo'm
   Unattributed report carried as the 10th of 16 items in newscast
   68) DPRK Notes Need To Create 'Peaceful Atmosphere' on US, ROK Military
   Exercises
   Special article by reporter Song Yo'ng-so'k: "Exercises for a War of
   Northward Aggression Can Never Be Justified"; The author's title in the
   byline provi ded by KPM may be different from that which appears in hard
   copy; For assistance with multimedia elements, contact the OSC Customer
   Center at (800) 205-8615 or oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   69) US-DPRK Hold Fourth Round of Senior Colonel-Level Talks
   Pyongyang Korean Central Broadcasting Station (KCBS) in Korean carried the
   following as the 10th of 16 items in its 1200 GMT newscast on 10 August,
   which OSC plans to translate as first referent item; KCNA Headline:
   "Fourth Round of DPRK-U.S. Senior Colonel-level Military Working Contact
   Made"
   70) Further on Police Searching Google Korea for Alleged Breach of Privacy
   71) Further on ROK Vowing To 'Act Resolutely' Against DPRK Provocation
   72) North Korea Opens Account With Global Video-Sharing Wesite YouTube
   73) UNC, DPRK Finish Colonel-Level Talks With No Progress
   Xinhua: "UNC, DPRK Finish Colonel-Level Talks With No Progress"
   74) DPRK Party Organ Criticizes US Scheme for 'New Cold War'
   Pyongyang Korean Central Broadcasting Station via Satellite in Korean
   carried the following at 0900 GMT; OSC processed the below Rodong Sinmun
   "signed article" as first referent item; KCNA headline: "Scheme For New
   Cold War Blasted"
   75) DPRK Reportedly Registers, Posts Videos on YouTube
   Updated version: upgrading precedence, rewording headline; Report by Sam
   Kim: "N. Korea goes YouTube-savvy in its propaganda offensive"
   76) Police Search Google Korea for Alleged Breach of Privacy
   77) ROK Military Vows To 'Act Resolutely' Against DPRK Provocation
   78) DPRK Website Derides Situation of ROK 'Pressed' by US To Join Iran
   Sanctions
   Commentary by Kim So'ng-ho: "Colonial Running Dog's Inescapable Fate";
   This appears to be DPRK media's first men tion of US request for ROK
   cooperation with sanctions on Iran, as cited in first referent item;
   KPNK1STM
   79) US Aid Delivered in 'Correct' Manner To Mend US-Pakistani Ties
   Editorial: "An opportunity in the midst of natural calamity"
   80) Thai Article Says Country Becoming Hub of Narcotics Trafficking
   Article by Thanok Bangphon: "Foreigners Turn To Use Thailand as Hub of
   Making Steroid Drug"
   81) UK Ambassador Urges ROK To Join Iran Sanctions
   Updated version: rewording headline, adjusting tags, and adding source
   graphic; Report on interview with Martin Uden, British Ambassador to South
   Korea, by Christine Kim; date and place not given: "U.K. Ambassador Urges
   ROK to Join Iran Sanctions"; For assistance with multimedia elements,
   contact the OSC Customer Center at (800) 205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   82) Iranian Military Developments, 24-30 July 2010&lt;/ a&gt;
   83) London Pan-Arab Daily Warns Netanyahu Government Prevents Obama
   Delivering Peace
   Editorial by Jihad al-Khazin: "Applying the Litmus Test"
   84) Iranian Shipping Company Files UK, EU, US Complaints Over Sanctions
   Imposition
   Unattributed report: "Iran's Three Complaints Against Shipping Sanctions"
   85) Pakistan Daily Warns Govt Against Western Propaganda Aims At
   Disfiguring ISI
   Editorial: Propaganda of Rogue Spies
   86) Former President Bush Expected in Haiti 10 Aug
   Unattributed report: "George Bush Expected in Haiti This Tuesday"
   87) US, India To Chart Bilateral Defense Cooperation Ahead of Minister
   Antonys Visit
   Report by Sandeep Dikshit: India, U.S. Review Defence Cooperation
   88) Indian commerce minister terms proposed US visa fee hike
   'discriminatory'
   89) Xinhua 'Comment ary': Is Global Power Really Shifting Eastward?
   Xinhua "Commentary": "Is Global Power Really Shifting Eastward?"
   90) India says US senator's remarks on IT firm 'unfortunate and avoidable'
   91) Indonesia's Cleric Bashir Declared Suspect on Terrorism
   Xinhua: "Indonesia's Cleric Bashir Declared Suspect on Terrorism"
   92) Syrian Press 10 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from the Syrian press on 10 August. To
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
   93) Us Lawmaker Cuts $100 Million Aid To Lebanons Military
   "Us Lawmaker Cuts $100 Million Aid To Lebanons Military" -- The Daily Star
   Headline
   94) Lebanese Press 10 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from the Lebanese press on 10 August.
   To request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
   95) US State of Georgia, Liberia Sign Agreement on Management, Security of
   Ports
   Report by Julius Kanubah: "Liberia/Georgia Sign Agreement"
   96) Turkish Islamist Press 10 Aug
   This product lists selected items carried in the Turkish Islamist press on
   10 August. To request additional processing, contact the OSC Customer
   Center at (800) 205-8615 or OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   97) Visits to Russia, US 'Yet To Be Planned'
   "Lithuanian President: Visits to Russia, US Yet To Be Planned" -- BNS
   headline
   98) Lebanese Press 9 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from the Lebanese press on 9 August. To
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
   99) Boeing Likely to Win Contract For S. Korea's Presidential Jet: Sources
   100) Iranian Vice President Warns of Tariffs Against ROK Over Sanctions
   Unattributed report: "Iran Warns Korea Over Sanctions"
   101) Iranian general downplays US war option
   102) US worst suppressor of media, people - Iranian president
   103) Malaysian, Singapore Chinese Press 10 Aug 10
   The following is a selection of editorials, commentaries, and reports from
   Malaysian and Singapore Chinese press on 10 August
   104) Hardline Islamic Charities Said Providing Relief to Pakistan Flood
   Victims
   AFP Report: "Islamic charities versus the US in battle for Pakistan aid"
   105) Critical Commentary on US Iran Policy
   Commentary by Dmitriy Voskoboynikov: "Iran. Why Bomb?" (Komsomolskaya
   Pravda Online)
   106) Pakistan Taliban Urge Government To Reject US Aid
   AFP Report: "Pakistan Taliban urge government to reje ct US aid"
   107) Iran TV Criticizes 'Dual Approach' of US to Rebel Group MKO
   108) Taiwan Political Issues 9 August 2010
   109) Iran Cannot Protect Self From Israeli, U.S. Air Strike
   110) Iran 'in no condition' to counter Israeli, US air attack - Russian
   analyst
   111) Iranian Commentary Argues Domestic Opposition Leaders Supplement
   Foreign Threats
   Commentary by Abbas Haji Najjari from the "Note" column: "All Parts of a
   Puzzle"
   112) Iran Cannot Protect Self From Israeli, U.S. Air Strike - Russian
   Analyst
   113) Ma Ying-jeou Says Despite Improved Cross-Strait Ties, Taiwan Still
   Worried
   Unattributed report: "Ma Ying-jeou Says Procuring US Arms Is Necessary 'In
   Order To Eliminate the Obsolete Arms and Bring Its Weaponry Up-To-Date'"
   114) Saudi Website Highlights 10 Aug 10
   This roundup includes significant Saudi websites other than those of
   Jihadist groups, which OSC covers separately. To request additional
   processing, contact the OSC Customer Center at (800) 205-8615 or
   OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   115) Asustek Sales At Computer Show Up 30 Percent
   By Chang Liang-chih, Han Ting-ting and Frances Huang
   116) Foreign Office Seeks US Support To Tackle Devastating Floods
   Report by Kaswar Klasra: Pak can't handle flood calamity alone
   117) Xinhua 'Feature': Gulf Coast Dogs Seek New Homes in New Jersey
   Xinhua "Feature": "Gulf Coast Dogs Seek New Homes in New Jersey"
   118) Senators Submits Motion Against Issuance of Visas to 600 US Nationals
   Report by staff correspondent: JI moves Senate against Jang Group, Geo
   intimidation
   119) S. Koreans Going to The U.S. to Start Paying Fees For Electronic
   Travel Authorization Next Month
   120) Mexico Economic Issues 10 Aug 10
   121) Mexico Regional Press 10 Aug 10
   122) Mexico Political Issues 10 Aug 10
   123) Asia-pacific Posts Highest Air Passenger Traffic in H1
   124) `Smart TV Shock` to Revolutionize Industry
   125) Intelligence Minister Warns Conversion to Christianity Part of Soft
   Warfare
   126) Iran -- Foreign Ministry Briefing; Rules Out New War (2)
   127) Embassy Unaware of Suspected Spy's Plans to Go Back to Peru
   128) Immigration Bureau Reportedly Apprehends 302 Human Trafficking
   Victims
   Report by Gemma Garcia and Ludy Bermudo: "302 Filipinos Victims of Human
   Trafficking"
   129) Police Raid Google Korea, Say Personal Information Illegally
   Collected
   Updated version: replacing 0906 GMT version with s ource-supplied 1106 GMT
   update, which "UPDATES with Google executive's remarks at bottom,"
   upgrading precedence, rewording headline; Yonhap headline: "Police raid
   Google Korea on suspicion of communication law violation"
   130) Panama Media 10 Aug 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   131) President Martinelli Talks Security, Trade With US Congressmen
   Unattributed article: "Martinelli Talks Security and Trade With US
   Congressmen"
   132) Slovakia To 'Evaluate' US Decision To Impose Fee on Travellers From
   EU
   "Slovakia to Evaluate Charges for People Travelling to U.S.A." -- TASR
   headline
   133) The First Phase Of The Vigilant Eagle Exercise Completed
   134) HK Column: Difficult To Be Optimistic About Prospect of Sino-US Ties
   To request additional processing, ca ll OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735; or email: oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov
   135) About 100 U
   136) Police Release US Journalist 'Arrested' for Trespassing Gold Mine
   Report by Mugini Jacob: "American Journalist Set Free"
   137) US Offers Condolences Over Deadly Flooding, Mudslides in China
   Xinhua: "U.S. Offers Condolences Over Deadly Flooding, Mudslides in China"
   138) USA gives 4.8m dollars for famine relief in northeastern Uganda
   139) Uzbekistan, Oman to Set Up JV For $250 Mln Cement Plant By Year-end
   140) Qinghua University Scholar Says US Security Concept Not Sustainable
   Article by Zhang Liang and Han Chengzhen: "Expert: US Security Model
   Unscientific; Sustainable Security Belief Should Be Promoted"
   141) Deputy PM Proposes Levying Duties on Russia's Imports o f GPS
   Navigators
   142) Govt Drafting Concept Of New Glonass Program - Putin - 2
   143) All Vehicles Sold In Russia From 2012 Should Be Linked To Glonass -
   Putin
   144) Russian Equities Slip on Tues Following Weak U.S. Stats
   145) Dollar Moves Up on MICEX, Euro Slides
   146) NASA Plans Second Spacewalk For Mending ISS Cooling System
   147) Foreign Consular Services Keep Working Despite Heat Wave

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   1) Back to Top
   Brazilian Committee Denounces US, ROK 'War Moves'
   KCNA headline: "U.S. And S. Korean Puppet Forces' War Moves Under Fire" -
   KCNA
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 02:56:13 GMT
   (Description of Source: Pyongyang KCNA in English -- Official DPRK news
   agenc y. URL: http://www.kcna.co.jp)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   2) Back to Top
   Thai Officials Seek US Help in Finding Information Linked to Local Bribery
   Case
   Report by The Nation: "Officials seek US help in Bt64m bribery case" - The
   Nation Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 02:15:38 GMT
   (Description of Source: Bangkok The Nation Online in English -- Website of
   a daily newspaper with "a firm focus on in-depth business and political
   coverage." Widely read by the Thai elite. Audited hardcopy circulation of
   60,000 as of 2009. URL: http://www.nationmultimedia.com.)

   Mater ial in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   3) Back to Top
   Northern Central America Press 10 Aug 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Central America -- OSC Summary
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 18:36:09 GMT
   -- San Salvador La Prensa Grafica.com in its editorial asserts that what
   El Salvador needs at the moment are "cool heads" to steer the nation
   through the tensions created by the change in government. These tensions
   are present throughout the state apparatus and could increase due in part
   to the traditional lack of interaction between the thre e branches of
   government. Currently the administration is focused on obtaining financing
   for its programs, while the disputes within the legislature have created a
   volatile correlation of forces that encourages short-sighted decisions,
   while the Supreme Court is marked by unprecedented divisions that have
   resulted in dangerous decisions such as authorizing independent political
   candidates. Democracy requires rational thought and all political and
   private forces must commit themselves not only to ironing out differences,
   but also to a sustainable governability to overcome the antidemocratic
   attitudes that still prevail in many sectors. (San Salvador La Prensa
   Grafica.com in Spanish -- Website of independent, moderately conservative,
   largest-circulation daily founded by Jose Dutriz; critical of the FMLN;
   URL:

   http://www.laprensagrafica.com/portada/default.asp
   http://www.laprensagrafica.com/portada/default.asp ) FMLN Accuses
   Right-Wing Lawmakers Of Blocking Agreement Wit h Cuba

   -- San Salvador La Prensa Grafica.com reports that Farabundo Marti
   National Liberation Front (FMLN) lawmakers accused legislators from
   right-wing parties of blocking the ratification of a cooperation agreement
   on technology and science with Cuba signed on 13 March in Havana by
   Foreign Minister Hugo Martinez. The opposition lawmakers maintain that the
   agreement is ambiguous and could allow for the arrival of thousands of
   Cubans in the country threatening the jobs of Salvadorans. Daily Says
   Former, Current Colombian Presidents Violated Human Rights

   -- San Salvador Diario Co Latino.com in its editorial asserts that it is
   hard to understand why the Colombian people elected Juan Manuel Santos as
   their president since Santos and former President Alvaro Uribe are
   responsible for the genocides that took place in Colombia. The editorial
   reminds that last month Colombia asked for an urgent meeting of the OAS to
   denounce that Venezuela was allowing a guerrilla grou p to use its
   territory. However, the editorial highlights that on the same date a
   clandestine burial site was located in Colombia in the Meta region where
   an estimated 2,000 bodies are buried, many victims of Colombian
   paramilitary groups. It asserts that the calls for an OAS meeting to
   denounce Venezuela were "an evil ploy" to distract attention from the
   burial site and the "massacres" committed by the Uribe administration. The
   editorial concludes that Uribe and his successor will definitely have to
   pay for their crimes. (San Salvador Diario Co Latino.com in Spanish -
   Website of left-of-center daily published exclusively in San Salvador;
   Editor-in-chief Miguel Pinto, Critical of the National Republican
   Alliance; Circulation 10,000; URL:

   http://www.diariocolatino.com http://www.diariocolatino.com ) Salvadoran,
   Brazilian Presidents Promote Commercial Ties

   -- San Salvador Ministry of Foreign Relations of the Republic of El
   Salvador official we bsite publishes a press communique reporting that
   President Mauricio Funes and his Brazilian counterpart Luis Inacio Lula da
   Silva inaugurated an event designed to strengthen ties between the two
   nations' private sectors. Some 300 business owners from El Salvador and
   the Sao Paulo State Federation of Industries (FIESP) explored investment
   and trade opportunities. During the event President Funes praised Brazil's
   success in promoting democracy and cooperation between the public and
   private sectors adding that the "prejudices" against a leftist government
   are being eliminated in El Salvador. The two presidents also met privately
   for an hour, while officials from the two administrations signed eight
   cooperation agreements covering social programs and other issues. (San
   Salvador Ministry of Foreign Relations of the Republic of El Salvador in
   Spanish -- Official website of the Salvadoran Ministry of Foreign
   Relations; URL:

   http://www.rree.gob.sv/ http://www.rree. gob.sv/ ) GUATEMALA President
   Colom Warns Administration Facing Grave Financial Shortfall

   -- Guatemala City Prensa Libre.com reports that President Alvaro Colom
   warned that "we are reaching a limit that could put the public
   administration in trouble" if lawmakers fail to approve increasing the
   budget in coming months. "The 13 ministries are in trouble," Colom stated
   explaining the funding priorities are reconstruction, dealing with
   emergencies, and security issues. Colom also said that during his recent
   visit to Colombia he met with his Mexican, Honduran, Salvadoran, and
   Colombian counterparts to discuss security issues. (Guatemala City Prensa
   Libre.com in Spanish -- Website of independent highest circulation daily;
   Editor-in-Chief Gonzalo Marroquin Godoy URL:

   http://www.prensalibre.com http://www.prensalibre.com ) Honduras Denies
   Political Asylum Request By Former Official

   -- Guatemala City Prensa Libre.com reports that President Alv aro Colom
   said that the Honduran Government would not grant political asylum to
   former Penitentiaries System Director Alejandro Giammattei. The former
   official sought refuge in the Honduran Embassy on 5 August alleging
   political persecution. A court issued an arrest warrant against Giammattei
   for his involvement in the death of seven prisoners during an operation to
   retake control of the Pavon penal farm. US Lawmakers Said To Support
   Granting TPS To Guatemalan Immigrants

   -- Guatemala City Prensa Libre.com reports that President Alvaro Colom
   revealed that he met with seven US lawmakers from the Republican and
   Democrat parties while in Colombia to attend that nation's presidential
   inauguration. Colom said that the US lawmakers agreed that Guatemalan
   immigrants should receive the same treatment as other Central Americans
   that already enjoy the benefits of the Temporary Protected Status (TPS)
   program. HONDURAS Schoolteachers Associations Continue Strike

   -- Teguciga lpa La Tribuna Online reports that schoolteachers associations
   continue on strike and demanded a meeting with President Porfirio Lobo
   Sosa to discuss their demands. The teachers want the administration to pay
   its debt to the Teachers' Social Security Institute and also demand the
   dismissal of Education Minister Alejandro Ventura. (Tegucigalpa La Tribuna
   Online in Spanish -- Website of centrist daily owned by the family of
   Carlos Flores, a former Honduran president from the Liberal Party who
   continues to wield significant political influence; URL:

   http://www.latribuna.hn www.latribuna.hn ) US Deported Over 14,000
   Hondurans

   -- Tegucigalpa La Tribuna Online reports that according to groups working
   with deportees US authorities have deported 14,442 Hondurans so far this
   year, 88% are men and 12% are women.

   The following media were scanned and no file worthy items were noted:

   San Salvador fmln.org.sv

   Guatemala City Sigloxxi.com

   Guatemala City Alvaro Colom Government

   San Pedro Sula Tiempo.hn

   Tegucigalpa Presidency of the Republic of Honduras

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   4) Back to Top
   Argentina Political and Economic Issues 10 Aug 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Argentina - OSC Summary
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 16:27:35 GMT
   - Buenos Aires Clarin's Augusto Rojas reports from Bogota that although
   new Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos and his Venezuelan counterpart
   Hugo Chavez wagered on direct dialog to overcome their diplomatic crisis,
   a nalysts and Colombian government officials stressed the role played by
   former President Nestor Kirchner, as Union of South American Nations
   (Unasur) secretary general, and Brazilian President Lula in the
   rapprochement. And they stated that the regional entity emerged reinforced
   by its performance. Yesterday, Kirchner visited Santos to ask him about
   the convenience of his attending today's summit with Chavez and the
   Colombian leader authorized him to participate and told him that "his
   presence was important." (Buenos Aires Clarin.com in Spanish -- Online
   version of highest-circulation, tabloid-format daily owned by the Clarin
   media group; generally critical of government; URL:

   http://www.clarin.com/ http://www.clarin.com ) (OSC translating)
   Commentary Mercosur Makes Argentina's Falkland Sovereignty Claim Strategic

   - Buenos Aires Clarin's first of two editorials writes that the recent
   Mercosur Summit in San Juan reiterated backing for Argentina's Malvin as
   (Falkland) sovereignty claim and extended it to our country's continental
   shelf. This is an advance in the regional claim given the economic and
   strategic interest in the existing natural resources in the disputed area.
   (OSC translating) National President Accompanies Trucker Rival

   - Buenos Aires Clarin's Guido Braslavsky reports that in an effort to
   situate herself "above" internal General Workers Union (CGT) disputes,
   Cristina Kirchner was the "star guest" yesterday at the presentation of
   the new clinic for the Federation of Retail Business and Services
   Employees (FAECYS), which is headed by Armando Cavalieri, one of the
   so-called "fat cats," who oppose trucker Hugo Moyano's CGT leadership. In
   her address, the president said that the FAECYS project only "can be done
   in a country in growth" and she stated that a "comrade of the workers I
   will always be." The ceremony was "sober and without drums," in Parq ue
   Norte, where Cavalieri "rules," and participants included several "fat
   cats" and Health Minister Juan Manzur and Presidential General Secretary
   Oscar Parrilli. Moyano was glaringly absent. "Internal CGT issues are not
   our concern," said an important official after the ceremony.

   Left-to-right: Cavalieri, Cristina Kirchner, and Manzur (Presidency)

   Kirchner Begins 'Seduction' Plan

   - Buenos Aires Clarin's Leonardo Mindez reports that the "seduction" is
   underway. Nestor Kirchner is spending much of his time talking to the
   Buenos Aires Justicialist Party (PJ) leaders that left him or flirted with
   leaving. He wants them back into the sheepfold, to play their electoral
   cards in the official PJ next year or, at least, not to do so in Federal
   Peronism (PF). As Clarin reported two weeks ago, if the PF threatens to
   boycott the PJ primary and leave it without candidates, Kirchner plans "to
   run the dry cleaner" ov er it. His system is similar in all cases. He
   calls the PJ leaders to meetings in Olivos, gives them a monologue about
   the national and international scenario, reviews the "K" administration's
   achievements, and tries to convince them that the only alternative next
   year is Kirchnerism. "In 2003 I had 5% of voter intention and I won the
   presidency. Do you know how easy it is now with 30 and what (opposition)
   there is in front," he tells each one of them. "The doors are open and
   everyone disputes the primary," repeats Kirchner, who seeks to appear to
   be much more tolerant than in the past. His discourse may not suffice to
   reconvert the lost to the Kirchnerite faith, but it does suffice to avoid
   open hostilities and desertions to the "anti-K PJ." Meanwhile, "in the
   strictest reserve," PF leaders plan to dine tonight to try to overcome the
   disputes that started when former President Eduardo Duhalde announced a
   rally in Parana on 4 September. In the afternoon, there will also be PF
   meetings in the Senate and the Lower House. Buenos Aires Governor
   Unconcerned About Candidate Proliferation - Buenos Aires La Nacion's
   Ramiro Sagasti reports from La Plata that according to his aides, Daniel
   Scioli does "not" interpret Kirchner's decision to encourage several
   ministers to become gubernatorial candidates as an offensive to weaken
   him. Scioli knows that Kirchner needs to win big in the Buenos Aires PJ
   primary to reinforce his, or his wife's presidential candidacy and Scioli
   has confirmed his alignment with the former president. (Buenos Aires
   lanacion.com in Spanish -- Website of conservative, second
   highest-circulation daily; generally critical of government; URL:

   http://www.lanacion.com.ar/ http://www.lanacion.com.ar )

   Daniel Scioli and gubernatorial hopeful Social Development Alicia Kirchner

   at a ceremony in Buenos Aires yesterday (La Nacion)

   Most Governors Seek Re election

   - Buenos Aires El Cronista's Analia Argento reports on 9 August that of
   the country's 24 governors, two do not have elections next year and six
   cannot legally seek reelection: eight in total. Of the other 16, twelve
   are already working on reelection, even San Luis Governor Alberto
   Rodriguez Saa, who had announced, with his senator brother Adolfo, that no
   Rodriguez Saa would be a gubernatorial candidate in 2011 for the first
   time since 1983. But he has contradicted himself and said that he would be
   a gubernatorial and presidential candidate. (Buenos Aires El Cronista.com
   in Spanish -- Website of independent newspaper owned by Spain's Recoletos
   Group, focusing on financial information; URL:

   http://www.cronista.com/ http://www.cronista.com ) Spanish Judge Ridicules
   Duhalde, Agrees To Help Government

   - Buenos Aires Clarin's Juan Cruz Sanz reports that in press statements
   after participating in a human rights seminar in the Lower House
   yesterday, Bal tazar Garzon severely criticized former Duhalde's bill to
   plebiscite the continuity of the dictatorship trials -"a barbarity" and
   "an electoral 'gag'"- and appeared to meddle indirectly in Argentine
   politics. Later, he announced after a meeting with Foreign Minister Hector
   Timerman that he would cooperate with Casa Rosada in the development of
   programs related to the defense of human rights. Later, he met the
   Argentine Workers Union (CTA) leadership, in the framework of an
   acknowledgement of "your commitment to truth and justice." Today, he will
   be in the public gallery at former dictator Jorge Rafael Videla's trial in
   Cordoba. Commentary Kirchner To Place All Bets on Buenos Aires

   - Buenos Aires La Nacion's political analyst Carlos Pagni writes on 9
   August that Nestor Kirchner goes "for all or nothing" in Buenos Aires,
   were the "presidential succession" will be decided. It is a "gigantic
   challenge" for someon e who comes from losing there. To make matters
   worse, the dissident PJ can attract the ruling-party "clientele" with a
   candidate with "presidential dimension" such as PF Deputy Francisco de
   Narvaez. (OSC translating)

   "Recognition" - Nik depicts cabinet chief telling newsman: "Within the

   government there are optimists and pessimists..." "How do you recognize
   the

   optimists?" "They scream: to the votes, to the votes!!" "And the others?"
   "To

   the boats, to the boats!!" (La Nacion)

   Other issues National Schools To Study Dictatorship, Identity

   - Buenos Aires La Nacion's Silvina Premat reports that in a ceremony in
   the Education Ministry yesterday, Estela de Carlotto, Grandmothers of
   Plaza de Mayo head; Minister Alberto Sileoni, and Cabinet Chief Jaime
   Perczyk presented the texts and DVD that will be sent to primary and
   secondary schools nationwide for students to analyze and study -for the
   first time since the return of democracy- the issue of the dictatorship
   appropriation of minors and the recovery of identity, according to the
   work done by the Association of the Grandmothers of Plaza de Mayo. Federal
   Police Chief Urges Justice To Increase Controls

   - Buenos Aires La Nacion reports, on its front pagea and in an article,
   that amid the "commotion" over recent cases of insecurity, Nestor Vallecca
   stated yesterday in his address at the funeral of Christian Aoun, one of
   the thre e Federal Police (PFA) agents murdered recently, that "justice is
   up to the circumstances, but I think that it should look a little more at
   the issue of the releases" from prison of persons indicted or sentenced.
   Meanwhile, Buenos Aires Justice and Security Minister Carlos Casal
   revealed yesterday that 38,000 persons had been released from prison while
   awaiting trial and that 27,000 persons were being held in prisons and
   3,000 preci ncts: 30,000: More outside than inside. Meanwhile, retired
   Inspector Major Edgardo Aoun, former PFA Robbery Division head, was with
   his family at his son's funeral yesterday. Economic President Announces
   New Gas Pipeline

   - Buenos Aires La Nacion's Oliver Galak reports that Cristina Kirchner
   headed a ceremony in Casa Rosada yesterday to sign the contract to
   construct the Juana Azurduy Integration Pipeline (GIJA) and announced that
   it would be operative next May: 32 km in Argentina and 18 in Bolivia.
   Meanwhile, Carlos Villegas, Bolivian Government Oil Deposits (YPFB) head,
   said yesterday that the new gas field discovered southeast of Santa Cruz
   de la Sierra "permits us to continue meeting the commitments with the
   internal market and the contracts with Argentina and Brazil."

   Cristina Kirchner, accompanied by Governors Jorge Capitanich (Chaco),

   Planning Minister Julio De Vido, Ricardo Colombi (Corrientes), Gildo
   Insfran

   (Santiago del Este ro), and Maurice Closs (Misiones) in Casa Rosada (La

   Nacion)

   Santa Cruz Creates Airline With 'Official Planes'

   - Buenos Aires La Nacion's Santa Cruz correspondent Mariela Arias reports
   from Rio Gallegos on 9 August that the Santa Cruz government has created
   its own airline with two "official planes." It is authorized to fly
   non-regular internal and international services to transport passengers,
   cargo, and post. Momentarily, the service will consist in sanitary
   flights, which can be contracted by trade-union and private health
   companies and even by other Patagonian provinces. The planes are a Cessna
   Citation and a Beechcraft King, which were acquired when Kirchner was
   governor. India To Purchase More Soybean Oil

   - Buenos Aires El Cronista reports that after Ambassador Rengaraj
   Viswanathan said yesterday that Indian purchases of soybean oil would
   increase 48% year-on-year in 2010 to $1.5 billion and help close the
   vacuum left by China, H ector Timerman celebrated the news on Twitter.
   "Indian ambassador confirmed soybean oil purchases of $1.5 billion. They
   will also increase their investments, which already exceed $1 billion," he
   wrote. China Seeks New Options

   - Buenos Aires La Nacion's Alfredo Sainz reports that Chinese companies
   want to invest here and the most attractive sectors are mining,
   electronics, and telecommunications. Yesterday, Zhao Xuemel, head of the
   Latin American Study Center at the University of International Business
   and Economics (UIBE) in Beijing, said that "to locate with a plant in
   Argentina, in many cases, represents the best alternative to the measures
   that stop the entry of imported products today, as occurs with electronic
   and telecommunication-equipment plants." She is here to participate in
   "The Construction of China-Argentina Economic Links" seminar, organized by
   Tres de Febrero University and the UIBE. Border dispute over pulp mill
   Environmen talists Believe Problem Continues

   - Buenos Aires La Nacion's Jorge Riani reports from Parana that the
   Gualeguaychu environmentalists are upset by Timerman's statement there was
   nothing further to resolve here and "some" of them have started talking,
   in a "moderate tone" momentarily, about the possibility of restarting the
   highway blockade if a system to monitor the plant, which would satisfy
   their expectations, is not established within nine days. Nevertheless, the
   principal Environmental Assembly leaders have sought to clarify that there
   is no interest momentarily in restarting the protest.

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   5) Back to Top
   Brazil Political &amp;amp; Economic Issues 6 Aug 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Brazil -- OSC Summary
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 13:11:08 GMT
   - Sao Paulo Folha de S. Paulo reports that President Luiz Inacio Lula da
   Silva attended today the opening meeting of the South American-African
   Summit Secretariat in Caracas and ensured that after the end of his
   administration, Brazil will continue seeking unity among countries. In a
   farewell tone, Lula recalled his experience in eight years of
   administration and underscored the importance of the alliance between the
   two regions, which according to him have great potential and are alike for
   thinking of "building" a common future. President Lula also promised that
   after his term in office is over, he will be available to contribute to
   Latin America and Africa. (Sao Paulo Folha de Sao P aulo Online in
   Portuguese - Website of generally critical of the government,
   top-circulation newspaper; URL: http:www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp) Clean
   Record Legislation Expected To Bar At Least 100 Candidates from Elections

   - Sao Paulo Folha de S. Paulo reports that according to a projection of
   the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), at least 100 candidates will be barred
   from running based on the Clean Record Law. According to the report, of a
   total of 1,030 candidacies barred so far, little over 70 were based on the
   new legislation. The law also prevents the candidacy of politicians who
   resigned to escape punishment decisions for misconduct. (Sao Paulo O
   Estado de S. Paulo digital in Portuguese -- Website of conservative,
   influential daily, critical of the government; URL:

   http://www.estadao.com.br/ http://www.estadao.com.br ) PSDB Chairman Deems
   Serra's Performance in Debate 'Blaster'

   - Sao Paulo O Estado de S. Paulo's Carolina Freitas reports that Senator S
   ergio Guerra, national chairman of the Brazilian Social Democratic Party
   (PSDB), considered the performance of the PSDB's presidential candidate,
   Jose Serra, in the debate on TV Bandeirantes "a blaster." According to
   Guerra, "he conveys more fluency and confidence to voters. Dilma
   (Rousseff) talks in circles, always the same thing." According to Guerra,
   the distance between Lula and Rousseff weakens her: "Rousseff is not
   Lula." "Lula articulates his speech, has intellectual muscles. Rousseff's
   problem is not just vocal. It is intellectual," he noted. Presidential
   Candidates Avoid Thorny Topics in First Debate

   - Sao Paulo Folha de S. Paulo reports that thorny topics, which were cause
   of controversy during the campaign and the pre-campaign and which would
   lead to heated discussions among the candidates, were not mentioned
   throughout the two hours of debates. According to the report, Serra did
   not refer to the alleged relationship between the Workers Party (PT) and
   the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the attempt of
   creating a file of documents against the PSDB's executive vice-president,
   Eduardo Jorge Caldas Pereira, and the relationship between Brazil and
   Iran. In related news, another report in Folha de S. Paulo adds that
   Rousseff stated that she was "pleased" with her performance in her first
   debate as candidate and also mentioned that she did not feel any
   aggressiveness from her main opponent, Jose Serra.

   Serra, Rousseff Polarize Debate, Focus on Health, Unemployment

   - Sao Paulo O Estado de S. Paulo's Gabriel Manzano reports that the first
   debate between the presidential candidates on TV with Jose Serra (PSDB),
   Dilma Rousseff (PT), Marina Silva (Green Party - PV), and Plinio Arruda
   Sampaio (Socialist Party - PSOL) turned into a duel between Serra and
   Rousseff, which Serra tried to focus on health and Rousseff on the figures
   and achievements of the Lula ad ministration. According to the report, it
   was a mild confrontation, with litt le emotion, except fo the short and
   hard criticism from Sampaio against the other candidates. Story notes that
   "Rousseff survived with some nervousness and long and generic sentences,
   in her first major public test." Serra Recalls Humble Origin, Rousseff
   Focuses on Lula Administration

   - Sao Paulo O Estado de S. Paulo's Gustavo Uribe reports that in the last
   bloc of the debate, dedicated to final statements, the presidential
   candidates explored their key campaign strategies in the dispute this
   year. According to the report, Serra focused on the image of a candidate
   with a humble background and tried to deconstruct the image of a serious
   man. Rousseff focused on connecting her political career to President
   Lula, and the honor of having coordinated the administration team during
   her term as Civilian Household Chief. Marina Silva tried to be the
   alternative option to the PT and the PSD B administrations, while Sampaio
   complained about questions on his defense regarding the country's default
   of the foreign debt. Roussef To Launch Web-based Fundraising

   - Sao Paulo Folha de S. Paulo's Fernando Rodrigues reports that Rousseff
   will launch on Monday, 9 August, a website for online fundraising.
   According to the report, supporters can use credit or debit cards to
   contribute and the system will be the first of its kind in the country.
   Serra's campaign leaders have signaled that he will not be able to offer
   this option to supporters. Supreme Court Ministers Want Salary Worth
   30,000 Reais

   - Sao Paulo Folha de S. Paulo's Felipe Seligman reports that the Supreme
   Federal Court (STF) will send next week a draft bill to Congress asking
   for a 14.79% increase in salaries of ministers, which would come into
   effect in January 2011, which would raise the current ceiling from the
   current 26,723 reais (R) to a monthly salary of R30,675. EH Vale To Invest
   $300 Milli on More in Peru

   - Sao Paulo Folha de S. Paulo's Janaina Lage reports that Vale company has
   announced plans to expand the production of the Bayovar phosphate mine in
   Peru by 50%. According to Vale chairman, Roger Agnelli, in 18 months the
   installed capacity will grow from 3.9 million tons to 5.9 million.
   According to the report, the mine has already received investments worth
   $566 million and was inaugurated yesterday with the presence of Peruvian
   President Alan Garcia. Story notes that the expansion will require an
   additional investment of $300 million. Bovespa Drops by 0,89% Influenced
   by Pessimism in International Market

   - Sao Paulo Folha de S. Paulo reports that after fluctuating near
   stability in the start of operations, the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange
   (Bovespa) stabilized in a downward trend, and recorded an 0.89% drop,
   falling to 67,804 points. On 5 August, the Bovespa closed at a 0.20%
   increase. Story notes that the commercial exchange rate to the dollar re
   corded an increase of 0.39%, closing at R1.761 to the dollar and the
   country risk rate recorded 204 basis points, namely 1.49% higher than the
   previous figure. The Department of Labor announced that 131,000 jobs were
   cut last month, though mostly temporary posts, and the private sector only
   hired 71,000 employees in the month, under the 90,000 expected by
   economists. In related news, another report by Jacqueline Farid in O
   Estado de S. Paulo adds that the Expanded Consumer Price Index (IPCA)
   recorded a positive variation of 0.01% in July, as announced today by the
   Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), while the National
   Consumer Price Index (INPC) dropped by 0.07% in July. Yet another report
   by Alessandra Saraiva in Agencia Estado adds that the industrial
   production fell in 9 of the 14 regions surveyed by the IBGE in June, in
   comparison with May. According to the IBGE, the greatest drop in
   industrial activity was recorded in Goias and Bahia. Mantega Please d with
   IPCA in July

   - Sao Paulo O Estado de S. Paulo's Sabrina Valle reports that Finance
   Minister Gui do Mantega stated today that he was very pleased with the
   IPCA announced today by the IBGE, which stood at 0.01% in July,
   accumulating an inflation of 4.6% in 12 months. Agriculture Minister Says
   US Embargo on Brazilian Beef Almost Over

   - Sao Paulo Sao Paulo O Estado de S. Paulo's Gustavo Porto reports that
   according to Agriculture Minister Wagner Rossi, the US embargo on
   Brazilian processed beef, which has been in effect for over two months,
   "is very close to reaching a solution." According to him, the
   implementation of the Brazilian administration's action plan to solve the
   problems pointed out in samples exported next week. Camex Lowers Imports
   Duty on Aircraft to Zero

   - Sao Paulo Sao Paulo O Estado de S. Paulo's Rosana de Cassia reports that
   the Foreign Trade Board (Camex) lowered the imports tax on aircraft to
   zero, as well as the tax on foreign purchases of parts and pieces and
   light training equipment and related goods.

   The following media were scanned and no file worthy items were noted:

   (Sao Paulo Valor Online in Portuguese - Website of financial daily
   published jointly by the Folha and Globo media conglomerates; URL:

   http://www.valoronline.com.br http://www.valoronline.com.br )(Description
   of source: Sao Paulo Brasil Economico - Online version of economic daily;
   URL:

   http://www.brasileconomico.com.br www.brasileconomico.com.br )

   (Rio de Janeiro JB Online in Portuguese - Website of center-right
   commercial daily affiliated to the Catholic Church; URL:

   http://jbonline.terra.com.br http://jbonline.terra.com.br )(Rio de Janeiro
   O Globo Online in Portuguese -- Website of Rio de Janeiro's top
   circulation daily, part of the Globo media conglomerate; URL:

   http://oglobo.globo.com http://oglobo.globo.com )(Brasilia Correio
   Braziliense Online in Portuguese -- Websit e of pro-government daily
   generally differs from printed version, which is available on site to
   subscribers; URL:

   http://www.correiobraziliense.com.br/ http://www.correiobraziliense.com.br
   )(Porto Alegre Zero Hora (Internet version-WWW) --- Porto Alegre's leading
   daily

   http://zerohora.com.br/ URL:http://zerohora.com.br )

   (Brasilia Jornal de Brasilia (Internet Version-WWW) in Portuguese ---
   Brasilia daily URLhttp://www.jornaldebrasilia.com.br/)

   (Sao Paulo Agencia Estado in Portuguese - Center-right, largely
   pro-administration news agency)

   (Brasilia Agencia Brasil WWW-Text in Portuguese -- Government-owned news
   agency. URL: as of filing date: http://www.agenciabrasil.gov.br/)

   (Sao Paulo Brazil-Arab News Agency (ANBA) (Internet Version-WWW) - website
   affiliated with the Brazil-Arab Chamber of Commerce)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   6) Back to Top
   Xinhua 'Analysis': Hopes High for Ending Row Between Venezuela, Colombia
   Xinhua "Analysis": "Hopes High for Ending Row Between Venezuela, Colombia"
   - Xinhua
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 12:02:05 GMT
   MEXICO CITY, Aug. 9 (Xinhua) -- Hopes are high that Venezuela and Colombia
   will put aside their diplomatic row when the two countries' leaders meet
   on Tuesday to seek a repairing of ties, analysts say.

   However, the dust of their dispute over Colombia's accusations that
   Venezuela was harboring Colombian guerrillas, is unlikely to settle for at
   least some time.CONCILIATORY MOVESColombia's charges prompted Venezuelan
   President Hugo Chavez to sever diplomatic ties with Colombia on July
   22.But with Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos taking office on Aug.
   7, tensions between the two countries are beginning to ease.Santos, unlike
   his hard-line predecessor Alvaro Uribe, is more practical and has voiced
   willingness to mend ties between the two countries.Santos' conciliatory
   tone was welcomed by Chavez, who sent his foreign minister Nicolas Maduro
   to Santos' inauguration ceremony and directed him to arrange a bilateral
   summit.Santos and Chavez will meet in Santa Marta, Colombia, at the site
   close to where South American independence hero Simon Bolivar died in
   1830.Chavez seems keen to take advantage of the talks to resume contact
   with Colombia. He said on Sunday that the talks would mark the beginning
   of a new relationship between the two neighboring countries.Restoring
   bilateral trade, which plummeted from 7 billion U.S. dollars to 700
   million dollars last year, will be top on the agenda of their talks.Trade
   activities have been on the decline amid fears of a potential war along
   the border, though some observers told Xinhua that there was no evidence
   such a war would break out.Besides, leaders of the region have played an
   important role in efforts to mediate between the two sides.After Nestor
   Kirchner, secretary-general of the Union of South American Nations,
   visited Venezuela on Aug. 5-6, Chavez changed his position by sending his
   foreign minister Maduro to Santos' inauguration ceremony.Leaders of
   Brazil, Mexico, El Salvador and Uruguay also appealed for an easing of
   tensions.DEEP-ROOTED DIFFERENCES TO REMAINHowever, despite the latest sign
   of a rapprochement between the two neighbors, analysts expect their
   dispute to linger for a long time due to their ideological
   differences.Miguel Angel Latouche, an expert at the Central University of
   Venezuela, said Venezuela and Colombia represent two kinds of political
   models in Latin America.The root causes of conflict lie in their different
   understanding of democ racy and the gap cannot easily be bridged by way of
   diplomatic reconciliation, Latouche said.Venezuela and Colombia also
   differ sharply over the status of the rebel Revolutionary Armed Forces of
   Colombia (FARC).The Colombian government labels FARC, the leftist guerilla
   group which has been fighting the government since the 1960s, as a
   terrorist group.But Chavez has asked the international community to stop
   classifying FARC as terrorists.Their differences also lies in their
   attitudes toward the United States.Bogota, a stanch ally of Washington,
   infuriated Caracas in July 2009 by signing a pact with the U.S. that gives
   the U.S. military access to seven Colombian bases. Chavez denounced the
   move as a threat to regional peace.In their latest spat, Chavez threatened
   to cut off oil supplies to the U.S. if his country is attacked by
   U.S.-backed Colombia.Although Chavez has not made any new remarks about
   Uribe, there are clear indications that their relationship ended on a sour
   note .One of Uribe's actions before leaving office was filing a complaint
   with the Hague-based International Criminal Court against
   Chavez.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's
   official news service for English-language audiences (New China News
   Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   7) Back to Top
   Indian Commentary Urges Iran To Focus on Talks To Ease Nuclear Tensions
   With West
   Commentary by Atul Aneja: Iran: the Politics of Sanctions - The Hindu
   Online
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 11:48:51 GMT
   Since the imposition of a new round of stringent sanctions, attention has
   been focussed on Iran's capacity to cope with the fresh attempts by the
   West to enforce its economic isolation. Led by the United States, Iran was
   confronted with three sets of sanctions in quick succession. The fourth
   round imposed by the United Nations Security Council on June 9 has been
   followed by a stringent set of economic measures, slapped unilaterally by
   the U.S. and the European Union.The purpose of the sanctions is apparently
   to promote the international non-proliferation agenda. By causing Iran
   economic pain, the West hopes to discourage it from pursuing a path of
   acquiring atomic weapons. In other words, the economic route is being
   pursued to achieve a political objective -- of persuading Tehran to
   relinquish such measures that may take it closer to acquiring nuclear
   weapon capability. Unlike the Bush administration, which flashed "regime
   change" as its call sign, the new mantra in Washington is about changing
   "regime behaviour." Applied to Iran, i t means enforcing a change in its
   nuclear policy by confronting it with the prospect of severe economic
   deprivations.In seeking to deny Iran atomic weapons, the Security
   Council's focus so far has been on curbing uranium enrichment. Uranium,
   when enriched above a 90 per cent level, can be used for making atomic
   weapons. Iran has enriched most of its uranium to a level of five per
   cent. However, since February, it has begun enrichment to a 20-per cent
   level. The Iranians argue that they need a 20-per cent level to eventually
   fabricate the nuclear fuel necessary to produce medical isotopes required
   for treatment of cancer.Unsurprisingly, a string of resolutions passed by
   the five permanent members of the Security Council and Germany has called
   upon Iran to halt uranium enrichment -- a demand it has refused to meet.
   The global powers have been especially alarmed at Iran's 20 per cent
   enrichment for, they fear that unless checked, this could be a stepping
   stone for Tehran purify ing uranium to a weapon-grade level. As for the
   five per cent uranium stockpile, there has been a concerted attempt, led
   by the West, to remove the bulk of this material to locations outside
   Iran.Will the heavy sanctions be weighty enough to persuade Tehran to
   sufficiently rein in its atomic programme? Given the level of suffering
   they are likely to cause, it is unlikely that sanctions alone would be
   severe enough to exhort Iran to significantly re-orient its atomic
   programme. However, there is a subtle but powerful political message in
   the new set of sanctions that Iran may find difficult to ignore, and which
   could encourage a dialogue in the future.Among the latest sanctions, those
   imposed unilaterally by the Americans and the Europeans strike at the very
   foundations of Iran's economy -- its oil and gas sector.For instance, EU
   sanctions ban the sale, supply or transfer of equipment and technology
   that Iran can use for refining, exploration and production of oil. The ban
   co vers liquefied natural gas as well. The U.S. sanctions hope to target
   Iranian petrol imports. While Iran is one of the world's largest producers
   of crude, it lacks sufficient refining capacity. Consequently, nearly 40
   per cent of its petrol requirements are met through imports, although the
   figure may have declined to 30 per cent if Iranian official estimates are
   to be believed. A Reuters report quoting the Oil Ministry said Iran's
   daily consumption of gasoline since March stands at 63.1 million litres.
   Of this, 45 million litres is produced domestically, which means Iran
   requires to import 18 million litres a day. Taking advantage of Iran's
   dependence on imports, the U.S. on June 24 passed its sanctions
   legislation, which not only imposed restrictions on its own companies but
   also targeted th e international firms that supply petrol and petroleum
   products to Iran. Under the new law, firms violating the sanctions will
   face denial of access to the U.S. financial system or con tracts.The
   significantly tightened sanctions have begun to take effect. In July, Iran
   reportedly received four shipments of petrol, far short of the 11 monthly
   cargoes of around 45 million litres each it normally requires at this time
   of the year. Of these, three were provided by the Turkish refining firm
   Tupras and China's Unipec, trading arm of Chinese refiner Sinopec.
   Venezuela was expected to provide the fourth gasoline cargo to Iran.
   Selling petrol to Iran has become all the more difficult as Lloyds of
   London, a trendsetting firm, has since July 9 decided that it would not
   insure or reinsure petroleum shipments bound for that country.Though the
   petroleum and financial sanctions have hit Iran hard, it may not find it
   unbearable to shoulder the burden. Iran has adopted a three-pronged
   strategy to meet its gasoline shortfall. First, it has decided to slash
   consumption. In the coming days, Tehran is expected to cut subsidies on
   gasoline. Second, it expects that friends such as China, Turkey and
   Venezuela will continue to support it with their petroleum supplies. While
   supporting the U.N. sanctions, China publicly rejected the imposition of
   unilateral sanctions by the U.S. and the EU which severely target Iran's
   oil and gas sector. Third, Iran plans to rapidly expand its domestic
   refining sector to acquire self-sufficiency within the next few
   years.While Iran may be prepared to face the economic hardship, it is the
   political challenge posed by the sanctions that may make it uneasy.
   Notwithstanding the dismissive rhetoric, it is unlikely that Tehran would
   have missed the political signal sent by the sanctions -- that the West
   may be running out of non-military options to curb its nuclear programme.
   The latest round of sanctions, in other words, may have brought war closer
   to Iran's doorstep than ever before.A combination of factors -- the
   retirement of the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency,
   Mohamed ElBaradei, a vocal critic o f military action in the region; and
   the re-emergence of the hawkish Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin
   Netanyahu, and his powerful partners in New York and Washington -- has
   hardened the anti-Iran mood in large sections of the U.S. establishment.
   Combined with the intense exertions of the non-proliferation crowd within
   the American bureaucracy, Washington's intolerance of an independent
   Iranian nuclear programme has been further re-energised. Some of the rich
   Gulf Arab petro-monarchies are also doing their bit to exhort the West to
   curb Iran's atomic programme.Those opposing the Iranian nuclear programme
   argue, unfairly, that once armed with atomic weapons, Iran would be well
   positioned to destabilise West Asia. In the West, there are also fears
   that after acquiring atomic weapons, it would emerge as a regional
   heavyweight, impossible to contain. A nuclear Iran, it is feared, would
   become a mighty counterweight to Israel, a key anchor well positioned to
   defend core western in terests in large parts of West Asia. Iran's
   emergence as Israel's potent rival would, therefore, change the pro-West
   balance of power in the region. Once in command of a nuclear deterrent and
   insulated from a military attack, Iran, it is believed, would also have
   the capacity to impede vital western interests on two other fronts.First,
   Iran would be unrestrained to tamper at will with the flow of
   international energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a move that
   would have a disastrous impact on the global oil industry. Second, a
   nuclear Iran would be well positioned to cause instability in some of the
   neighbouring oil rich Gulf countries, with significant Shia populations.
   For Saudi Arabia, a nuclear Iran is the ultimate nightmare for, most of
   the Shia population is concentrated in the country's eastern provinces,
   where much of the Saudi oil and related infrastructure is locate d. Iran
   would therefore emerge as a significant threat not only to the Kingdom but
   also to the global economy because the world's largest oil reserves are
   located in Saudi Arabia.From an Iranian standpoint, the latest round of
   sanctions signals a time for serious circumspection, followed by a sharp
   focus on dialogue to ease nuclear tensions with the West. The promise of
   the revival of Iran's talks in September with the Vienna group, comprising
   the U.S, Russia, France and the IAEA, presents an opportunity for nuclear
   confidence-building measures which neither Iran nor the global powers can
   afford to miss. Iran's position supporting the involvement of Turkey and
   Brazil in talks with the global powers is also logical, and maybe
   necessary, in order to prevent the standoff between Tehran and the West
   from heading towards the brink of war.

   (Description of Source: Chennai The Hindu Online in English -- Website of
   the most influential English daily of southern India. Strong focus on
   South Indian issues. It has abandoned its neutral editorial and reportage
   policy in the recent few years after its editor, N Ram, a Left party
   member, fell out with the Bharatiya Janata Party-led government and has
   become anti-BJP, pro-Left, and anti-US with perceptible bias in favor of
   China in its write-ups. Gives good coverage to Left parties and has
   reputation of publishing well-researched editorials and commentaries; URL:
   www.hindu.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   8) Back to Top
   Xinhua 'China Focus': Growth in Chinese Exports, Imports Slows in July
   Xinhua "China Focus": "Growth in Chinese Exports, Imports Slows in July" -
   Xinhua
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 11:06:06 GMT
   BEIJING, Aug. 10 (Xinhua) -- China's exports rose 38.1 percent year on
   year to 145.52 billion U.S. dollars in July, but the growth rate was down
   from the 43.9-percent surge in June, the General Administration of Customs
   (GAC) said Tuesday.

   Imports increased 22.7 percent from a year earlier to 116.79 billion U.S.
   dollars. The pace of growth, slower than June's 34.1-percent increase, was
   the smallest since imports resumed growing in November 2009 after having
   fallen for a year.Slower growth in imports of commodities such as steel,
   copper and plastic products was in line with the softening in fixed assets
   investment growth, said ANZ Bank analyst Zhang Hao.It also indicated
   China's policies to optimize industrial structure and ease excessive
   capacity has paid off, Zhang added.On a monthly basis, exports in July
   were up 5.9 percent from June, but July's imports edged down 0.4 percent
   from the previous month, the administration said.China's growth in exports
   will continue to slow in line with the expected slowdown in economic
   growth in the United States and the European Union from the third quarter,
   said Wang Tao, economist with the UBS Securities.Wang said growth in
   exports will continue to outpace that of imports for the rest of the year
   and she expects the annual trade surplus to hit 185 billion U.S. dollars
   this year.The country's foreign trade totaled 262.31 billion U.S. dollars
   last month, up 30.8 percent from a year earlier.The trade surplus for the
   first seven months totaled 83.93 billion U.S. dollars, down 21.2 percent
   over the same period last year.July's trade surplus widened to 28.7
   billion U.S. dollars, the highest level since February last year, sparking
   speculation that pressure on a stronger yuan will rise."The increase in
   the trade surplus is likely to add pressure to the exchange rate while the
   continued stronger-than-expected expansion in exports might help reduce
   some of the domestic concerns abo ut a possible sharp weakening in
   external demand," Barclays Capital said in a report to clients."A possible
   pickup in capital inflows in the coming months in view of the global
   easing monetary conditions and excess liquidity searching for yield may
   also add to the appreciation pressure," it said.The central parity rate of
   the yuan weakened to 6.7745 per U.S. dollar Tuesday from Monday's 6.7685,
   the strongest level since China abandoned a decade-old peg to the U.S.
   dollar in July 2005. The currency is allowed to float on the inter-bank
   market within a daily limit of 0.5 percent each way of the central parity
   rate.The People's Bank of China, the central bank, announced on June 19
   this year it would further reform the formation mechanism of the yuan
   exchange rate to improve its flexibility.Liu Dongliang, financial analyst
   with China Merchants Bank, expects the exchange rate of the yuan to
   strengthen to 6.75 against the greenback by the end of the month.According
   to the GAC, China's trade with the European Union, the country's largest
   trade partner, climbed 36.6 percent year on year in the January-July
   period to 263.16 billion U.S. dollars.Trade with the United States jumped
   30.6 percent during the period while that with Japan expanded 34.9 percent
   in the first seven months compared with a year earlier.Brazil overtook
   Russia to become China's 10th largest trade partner, with bilateral trade
   surging 54.6 percent to 32.51 billion U.S. dollars from January to
   July.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official
   news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   9) Back to Top
   2nd Ld: Growth in China's Exports, Imports Slows Down in July
   Xinhua: "2nd Ld: Growth in China's Exports, Imports Slows Down in July" -
   Xinhua
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 05:02:52 GMT
   BEIJING, Aug. 10 (Xinhua) -- China's exports rose 38.1 percent year on
   year to 145.52 billion U.S. dollars in July, but the growth rate was down
   from a 43.9-percent surge in June, the General Administration of Customs
   (GAC) said Tuesday.

   Imports increased 22.7 percent from a year earlier to 116.79 billion U.S.
   dollars. The pace of growth was slower than June's 34.1-percent
   increase.China's exports growth would continue to slow in line with an
   expected slowdown in economic growth in the United States and European
   Union from the third quarter, said Wang Tao, economist with the UBS
   Securities.Wang said growth in exports would continue to outpace that of
   imports for the rest of the year and she expected the annual trade surplus
   to hit 185 billion U.S. dollars this year.On a monthly basis, exports in
   July were up 5.9 percent from June, but July's imports edged down 0.4
   percent from the previous month, the administration said.The country's
   foreign trade totaled 262.31 billion U.S. dollars last month, up 30.8
   percent from a year earlier.The trade surplus for the first seven months
   totaled 83.93 billion U.S. dollars, down 21.2 percent over the same period
   last year.Trade with the European Union, the country's largest trade
   partner, climbed 36.6 percent year on year in the January-July period to
   263.16 billion U.S. dollars, the GAC said.Trade with the United States
   jumped 30.6 percent during the period while that with Japan expanded 34.9
   percent in the first seven months compared with a year earlier.Brazil
   overtook Russia to become China's 10th largest trade partner, with
   bilateral trade surging 54.6 percent to 32.51 billion U.S. dollars from
   January to July.(Descr iption of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English --
   China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China
   News Agency))

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   10) Back to Top
   Delhi Article Discusses India's Options on Afghanistan After Kabul
   Conference
   Article by D Suba Chandran, deputy director, Institute of Peace and
   Conflict Studies, IPCS, New Delhi: "Af-Pak Diary-IV: Indias Options after
   the Kabul Conference" - Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 05:30:50 GMT
   Nearly two weeks after the Kabul conference, which witnessed 70 plus count
   ries taking part along with Hillary Clinton and Ban-ki Moon, the UN
   Secretary General, the end game is getting clearer. There seems to be a
   consensus at the international level, in terms of agreeing to President
   Karzai's request that the security of Afghanistan be totally handed over
   to the Afghan National Army (ANA) and his government taking 'total
   ownership' of the administration. Meaning, that the international forces,
   by 2014 would have left completely, and that Karzai will be in absolute
   charge. What are the implications of this process, leading to a 2014 exit?
   What should be India's strategies to meet the likely fallouts?

   The above development of Karzai taking ownership of Afghan security and
   government should be read with three other recent developments - all of
   which have grave implications for India's investments in Afghanistan and
   its likely strategies in the future. First was the peace jirga, held by
   Karzai a month before in Kabul, which suggested that the government of
   Afghanistan should start a process of negotiation with the Taliban. Second
   development was a meeting (now denied), sometime during May-June, between
   Karzai and Sirajuddin Huqqani (of the notorious Huqqani network,
   responsible for the attack on Indian investments, including the embassy in
   Kabul), brokered by none other than Gen Kayani, Pakistan's Army Chief.
   Third development was the conclusion of Pakistan-Afghanistan Trade
   agreement (which excluded any transit rights to India).

   All the above three developments, if seen together would show a pattern
   emerging, which includes the following. First, the decision by Karzai and
   his government to negotiate with the Taliban. What are they likely to
   negotiate? A general amnesty for the Taliban in return for Mullah Omar and
   Sirajudin Huqqani laying down their arms and promising a good conduct? Or
   a sort of understanding between the Taliban and Karzai in power sharing?
   The latter seems to be the most plausible outco me of this negotiation,
   which will fructify once the American led international troops start
   leaving Afghanistan. This is why Karzai seems to be in a hurry to ask the
   international force to leave, despite understanding the limitations of his
   ANA. The international community (especially the US) understands this; it
   appears, there seems to be a tacit approval for such a negotiation.

   Second is the growing reliance of Karzai on Islamabad, especially on
   Pakistan's Army and its ISI. This reliance is perhaps a tactical
   understanding; Karzai, perhaps believes there is no other option than to
   deal with the devil, which will otherwise lead to his downfall and the
   collapse of his regime. Pakistan, especially its ISI, by constantly
   pursuing a twin strategy of supporting the Taliban, yet undertaking select
   military operations against it, seems to have convinced Karzai and the US,
   there is no other way to deal with the situation, other than talking to
   the Taliban. The recent trade agreement between Pakistan and Afghanistan
   should be seen from this perspective.

   Now, what happens to the Indian investments, which are more than a billion
   dollars now? What happens to New Delhi's political investment in Karzai as
   a bulwark aimed at scuttling Pakistan's influence? What are India's
   options now?

   First option is to cut losses and get out of Afghanistan. This is what the
   entire gamut of countries and donor agencies have concluded; Kabul
   conference deadline is an expression of this exit strategy. From US to
   Australia, countries have made huge investments - precious lives have been
   lost, and billions of dollars went in the drain (or in select Afghan
   pockets!). These counties have decided to cut their losses and get out;
   enough is enough seems to their mantra. India could also pursue the same
   strategy; it certainly is an option.

   Second option is to start a negotiation with the Taliban. Since its return
   is imminent after 2014 , if not before thi s deadline, why not talk to the
   Taliban and tell them that New Delhi would be only interested in building
   Afghanistan's infrastructure, from roads to bridges and hospitals. Or, New
   Delhi could pressurize the US and Karzai, that it is willing to agree to
   their decision to negotiate with the Taliban, with a condition that its
   economic investments will be protected after 2014.

   Third option is to explore working with the Northern Alliance (or what is
   left out of it) and considering the option of being present militarily, at
   least in the Northern Afghanistan. Boots on the ground is an option that
   needs to be debated, instead of simply overthrowing it. The hypothesis
   that it would have negative implications on the Indian Muslim community
   needs to be tested. Such a substantiation (or accusation) that the Indian
   Muslim community will keep its religious interests in the forefront at the
   cost of national interest is unfounded. Did they ever object to the
   Indo-Pak wars or the h uge Army presence in Kashmir valley?

   Let there be a debate on all three options - both in the Parliament and
   outside. We have not run out the options; but the time is running out.

   (Description of Source: New Delhi Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies
   Online in English -- Website of independent think tank devoted to studying
   security issues relating to South Asia. Maintains close liaison with
   Indian ministries of Defense and External Affairs; URL: www.ipcs.org)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   11) Back to Top
   US will be driven out of Mideast - Iran president - Press TV Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 04:33:22 GMT
   Text of report in English by Iranian news channel Press TV website on 10
   AugustIran says the US will be forced to leave the Middle East in the face
   of increasing opposition to its overseas military bases and defeats in
   Iraq and Afghanistan.In an interview with The New Yorker on Tuesday (10
   August), Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinezhad stressed that the situation
   in Afghanistan and Iraq demonstrated how Washington's "domineering
   policies" had been fruitless."Today, nations are extremely distressed by
   the presence of US military bases in their countries, and demand their
   closure. This is while just 40 years ago they welcomed the bases on their
   soil," the president's official website quoted his remarks."This means
   that America's military dominance is over," he added.The president went on
   to criticize Washington for sacrificing the welfare of Americans and good
   relations with the Middle East through its unwaver ing support for
   Israel."While the US can maintain friendly, cultural and economic ties
   with the Middle East, nearly 97 per cent of the region's population are
   opposed to the US support of the Zionist Regime."Ahmadinezhad said
   Washington could "spend the hefty sum (it spent) supporting the Zionists
   and (on) invading Iraq and Afghanistan to enhance the quality of life for
   its nation or for cultivating and investing in the Middle East."President
   Ahmadinezhad slammed the White House for what he described as decades of
   hostility and interference in Iran's internal affairs."The US politician's
   hostility towards the Iranian nations is not limited to recent years...the
   US government carried out a coup in Iran 57 years ago, for which (former
   Secretary of State Madeleine) Albright claimed full credit," he said. "The
   US supported (Iraqi dictator) Saddam (Husayn) during the eight-year
   (Iraqi-) imposed war."The Iranian president also criticized the US for its
   nuclear weapons stockpile, which is "in breach of the NPT (Nuclear
   Non-Proliferation Treaty)."(Description of Source: Tehran Press TV Online
   in English -- website of Tehran Press TV, 24-hour English-language news
   channel of Iranian state-run television officially controlled by the
   office of the supreme leader; www.presstv.ir)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   12) Back to Top
   Cordoba House Controversy Shows Islamophobia Still Rages
   "Cordoba House Controversy Shows Islamophobia Still Rages" -- Jordan Times
   Headline - Jordan Times Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 01:23:07 GMT
   11 August 2010

   By Hasan Abu Nimah Afierce controversy is raging in the United States
   overplans to build an Islamic community and outreach centre, including a
   mosque, inLower Manhattan, several blocks from "Ground Zero" - the site
   where the WorldTrade Centre stood when it was attacked on September 11,
   2001. The controversystarted when the Cordoba Initiative, led by Imam
   Feisal Abdul Rauf, wanted toget a permit to build the centre, to be called
   Cordoba House. Writing in theNew York Daily News, Ilhan Tanir commented
   that "one of the biggest motives ofthis controversy is the image of Islam
   in America... For many, Islam is areligion which chiefly spreads hatred. A
   lot of Americans believe that Islam isan exceptionally brutal religion in
   which basic human rights are unimportantfor especially those who belong to
   other faiths. Since 9/11, this chain ofbeliefs has gained more evidence to
   prove its arguments are worthy, in light ofmany radical Islam ic
   terrorists?blowing up innocent women or infants almostevery single day."
   If that is the impression Americans have, it is not justbecause of what
   Muslims did and did not do, but because demagogues andanti-Muslim
   activists fanned the flames, seeking to sow fear and hatred ratherthan
   seek any common ground. Many claimed that locating Cordoba House so
   closeto Ground Zero would be insensitive to the feelings of family members
   ofvictims of the 9/11 attacks. Former Republican vice presidential
   candidate andAlaska governor Sarah Palin jumped into the fray to oppose
   the mosque, ad?ingfuel to a fire that raged in the American media over
   what came to be known,misleadingly and disparagingly, as the "Ground Zero
   Mosque." In its missionstatement, the Cordoba Initiative clearly states
   that one of its aims is"bringing back the atmosphere of interfaith
   tolerance and respect that we havelonged for since Muslims, Christians and
   Jews lived together in harmony andprosperit y eight hundred years ago." We
   can only hope that Cordoba House willfulfil this noble mission, but some
   lessons emerged from the controversy.President Barack Obama, despite his
   famous Cairo speech to the Muslim worldlast year, remained entirely
   silent, which might indicate his administrationfeels too intimidated to
   stand up to the wave of Islamophobia sweeping thecountry. It is hard to
   imagine such silence if any other religious group facedsimilar
   high-profile hostility. Many will wonder, if Obama can't even reach outto
   American Muslims what can the rest of the world expect. But after
   theproject cleared its last technical hurdle - a vote of the New York
   CityLandmarks Commission - New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg gave a
   stirringand commendable speech defending the tolerance and openness of his
   city and theUnited States. Although he has taken extreme pro-Israel
   positions, Bloombergshowed enough courage to stand up to the raging
   bigotry. One of the loudestopponents to Cordoba House was Abe Foxman,
   national director of the pro-Israellobby group the Anti-Defamation League
   (ADL), which advertises itself as anorganisation committed to fighting
   bigotry. Firmly aligning himself with thebigots, Foxman argued:
   "Ultimately this is not a question of rights, but aquestion of what is
   right. In our judgement, building an Islamic centre in theshadow of the
   World Trade centre will cause some victims more pain -unnecessarily - and
   that is not right?. "If you want to heal us, don't do it inour cemetery,"
   he added. This was ironic, not least because Foxman has beentotally silent
   about the agony caused to Muslims by the plans of the LosAngeles-based
   pro-Israel group, the Simon Wiesenthal Centre, to build aso-called "Museum
   of Tolerance" on top of Muslim graves in Mamillah Cemetery inJerusalem.
   The head of the Wiesenthal Centre also opposed the Cordoba House.Foxman's
   endorsement of the anti-Muslim racists seems to have caused a back
   lashagainst a powerful organisation that is used to getting its way.
   FareedZakaria, CNN host, editor of Newsweek International and Washington
   Postcolumnist, responded by returning a prize the ADL had honoured him
   with fiveyears earlier. "I was thrilled to get the award from an
   organisation that I hadlong admired, but I cannot in good conscience keep
   it anymore," he wrote.Zakaria also returned the $10,000 that came with the
   award. While Zakariashould be commended for this action, the question
   remains as to why he hadaccepted the award in the first place. Any honest
   observer should have seen therole the ADL has played in promoting the most
   extreme anti-Arab policies ofIsrael as well as many of the extremist "war
   on terror" policies of the USadministration. And beyond his action,
   Zakaria's defence of Islam implied majormisconceptions. He wrote that "the
   lasting solution to the problem of Islamicterror is to prevail in the
   battle of ideas and to discredi t radical Islam."This is utterly wrong. In
   the same way that there are terrorists, warcriminals, murderers, thieves
   and torturers who adhere to all kinds of faiths,there are also Muslims who
   fit in such deplorable categories. How could therenot be when Muslims are
   a third of the world's population? We do not speak of"Christian terror" or
   of "Jewish terror" just because there are terrorists whohappen to be
   Christians or Jews. After all, don't Israeli soldiers and settlerscommit
   abominable crimes every day with the endorsement of rabbis, claimingthat
   they do it for the sake of "Judaism" or the "Jewish people"? Hundreds
   ofthousands of Muslims have been killed in the wars waged in Iraq and
   Afghanistanby the United States and its allies. What about the millions of
   people who werekilled in Southeast Asia during America's war in Vietnam?
   Should we call themvictims of "Christian violence" - especially after it
   was revealed that some USsoldiers' rifles in Iraq were engraved with
   verses from the Bible? Just likeother people, sometimes Muslims engage in
   violence because they are underoccupation, just as French, Belgian and
   Dutch Christians did in Europe. It justso happens the only countries in
   the world under foreign military occupationtoday are Muslim countries.
   Religion is entirely incidental to the fact thatpeople took up arms,
   though they might find inspiration, comfort or courage init, but it has
   become convenient to blame their religion in order to obscurethe original
   causes of the violence. Zakaria urges support for Imam Rauf, andrightly
   so, describing him as a "moderate" Muslim clergyman, who
   "routinelydenounces terrorism" and "speaks of the need for Muslims to live
   peacefullywith all other religions&amp;amp;#1577; He advocates equal rights
   for women, and arguesagainst laws that in any way punish non-Muslims." But
   there is nothing novel orgroundbreaking in any of that. With all due
   respect the imam is notreinterpreting Islam, he is simply describing part
   of its peaceful mission asMuslims all over the world live it every day.
   The reference to laws that punishnon-Muslims, however, is quite
   implausible. I am not aware that such laws existin Islam. Laws in general
   punish violators or breakers of the law regardless oftheir religion.
   Allowing the Cordoba House to be built in downtown Manhattanand offering
   it support is not a great gesture to Islam. It is meant to be asymbol of
   healing and reconciliation for all faiths. As such it is not anIslamic
   shrine despite the fact that it would include a mosque, and it will beopen
   for worship for all. What the campaign against it reveals is that
   theIslamophobia gripping many "Western" countries is growing, not
   diminishing, andfew are speaking out against it.11 August 2010(Description
   of Source: Amman Jordan Times Online in English -- Website of Jordan
   Times, only Jordanian English daily kno wn for its investigative and
   analytical coverage of controversial domestic issues; sister publication
   of Al-Ra'y; URL: http://www.jordantimes.com/)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   13) Back to Top
   10 August 2010
   For a copy of the video, contact GSG_GVP_VideoOps@rccb.osis.gov or the OSC
   Customer Center at (800) 205-8615. Selected video also available at
   OpenSource.gov - International -- OSC Multimedia
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 17:12:23 GMT
   M

   14) Back to Top
   Afghanistan to review foreign p olicy after studying leaked war reports -
   Pajhwok Afghan News
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 16:04:18 GMT
   reports

   Text of report in English by Afghan independent Pajhwok news agency
   websiteKabul, 10 August: The Foreign Affairs Ministry said on Tuesday
   Afghanistan's foreign policy would be reviewed after a thorough study of
   thousands of war reports released by the WikiLeaks.Speaking at press
   conference in Kabul, Foreign Minister Dr Zalmay Rasul said the president
   had asked his ministry and the National Security Council to study the
   leaked documents."The study will determine how these reports will affect
   our national and foreign policy so that we could adjust ourselves
   accordingly," he said, adding they would send the results to Karzai and
   then review the foreign policy.The secret US military reports blamed
   Pakistan and Iran for supporting the Taleban insurgency in Afghanistan.
   The papers also contained some accounts of civilian killings by American
   soldiers.(Description of Source: Kabul Pajhwok Afghan News in English --
   independent news agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   15) Back to Top
   Germany Details Payments Made to Victims of Afghan Air Strike in Sep
   Corrected version: reformatting subject line: "Germany Pays Out to Afghan
   Strike Families: Ministry" -- AFP headline - AFP (North European Service)
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 15:05:40 GMT
   (Description of Source: Paris AFP in English -- North European Service of
   independent French press agency Agence France-Presse)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   16) Back to Top
   Pakistan Press Nawa-e Waqt 10 Aug 10
   To request additional processing, contact the OSC Customer Center at (800)
   205-8615 or OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Nawa-e Waqt
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 14:59:37 GMT
   pictures on page one show people migrating from flood-hit areas, Army
   personnel engaged in relief work, President Asif Ali Zardari meeting
   Syrian counterpart Basharul al-Assad, and Saudi ambassador meeting Nawaz
   Sharif. Lead Story: Report by special correspondent: Flood situation; such
   devastation had not been witnessed if Kalabagh D am had been built: Prime
   Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani

   The prime minister said that the government would start building the
   Kalabagh Dam if consensus was evolved. (pp 1, 8; 800 words) Report by
   special correspondent: Emergency meeting of Organization of Islamic
   Conference (OIC) should be summoned; prime minister should launch appeal
   to world community to provide assistance for people affected by flood:
   National security committee (pp 1, 9; 400 words) NNI news report:
   Government should make relief, rehabilitation work its priority: Nawaz
   Sharif (pp 1, 10; 300 words) Nawa-e Waqt report: Does parliament want
   people to take to streets for withdrawal of its decisions? Chief justice
   (pp 1, 9; 600 words) APP report: President Bashar al-Assad meets President
   Zardari; views exchanged on flood devastations in Pakistan, situation in
   region (pp 1, 9; 200 words) Report by special correspondent: Senate
   Standing committee on interior expresses indignation over awarding of
   contract to Israeli company by Pakistan State Oil (PSO); says those
   brining enemy to country are enemies of nation; threats posed to national
   security (pp 1, 9; 200 words) NNI news report: Visit was imperative for
   apprising world about Pakistan's sacrifices: President Zardari (pp 1, 9;
   300 words) Report by Javed Siddique: There were two opinions by President
   House, Foreign Ministry over visit of President Zardari to United Kingdom:
   Spokesman (pp 1, 9; 300 words) Report by special correspondent: President
   excels cricket team in brining bad name to nation; Pakistan Muslim
   League-Nawaz (PML-N) becomes nightmare for Pakistan People's Party (PPP):
   Chaudhry Nisar (leader of opposition) (pp 1, 9; 500 words) Online report:
   Zardari ridicules media, masses; have no regret over throwing shoe: Shamim
   (person who tossed shoe at president Zardari) (pp 1, 9; 100 words) Report
   by special correspondent: Public Accounts Committee meets; recommends
   death sentence for corrupts like China (pp 1, 9; 300 word s) NNI news
   report: Swat man arrested after threatening to blow up airplane (pp 1, 9;
   100 words) Bureau report: Sister of Asfandyar Wali critically injured
   during shooting by unknown persons (pp 1, 10; 200 words) NNI news report:
   Group of terrorists arrested in Islamabad: Interior Minister; MPs, several
   other important personalities were on their hit list (pp 1, 9; 200 words)
   Report by Itrat Jaffery: Achievement of economic targets becomes
   impossible because of flood devastations (pp 1, 9; 300 words) Report by
   Suhail Abdul Nasir: Armed forces start implementation on joint strategy to
   save people stuck because of flood (pp 1, 9; 300 words) Report by
   Shoibuddin: Around 1.8 million people affected by floods in Punjab;
   damages estimate is 100 billion rupees (PRe) (pp 1, 9; 800 words) Report
   by special correspondent: People start migrating after orders to vacate
   Muzaffargarh city; UN says greatest crisis of world emerges (pp 1, 10; 800
   words) Report by special correspondent: Affe cted people in Muzaffargarh
   chant slogans against president, governor; Salman Taseer (Punjab Governor)
   cancels visit (pp 1, 9; 200 words) NNI news report: We have not given any
   directives about closure of channels: Babar Awan, Qamar Zaman Kaira
   (federal ministers) (pp 1, 9; 300 words) Report by special correspondent:
   Afghan leader Ustad Mohammad Mohaqiq meets Fo reign Minister Shah Mahmood
   Qureshi (pp 1, 9; 100 words) Report by special correspondent: General
   Ashfaq Pervez Kayani meets Afghan President Hamid Karzai in Kabul (pp 1,
   9; 100 words) SANA news report: We fear Pakistan will seize Afghanistan
   after US withdrawal: Indian foreign secretary (pp 1, 9; 300 words) Page 2:
   News From Islamabad, Rawalpindi

   Page two has a column besides local news and advertisements. Column by
   Marwi Memon: Open letter to Pakistani Americans

   The column appeals to the Pakistanis living in the United States to assist
   their brethren, who are suffering because of flood in the country. (800
   words) Page 3: National, International Reports

   The page three has national and international news. Column by Rafique
   Dogar: Peace, prosperity, purity of heart

   The column criticizes the policies of the rulers. (800 words) SANA news
   report: Bomb attack in southern Afghanistan; US solider killed (pp 3, 10;
   200 words) Report by special correspondent: Those making propaganda
   against religious schools following West's agenda (pp 3, 10; 300 words)
   Report by special correspondent: Licenses of 22 private security companies
   functioning in federal capital cancelled (pp 3, 10; 200 words) Page 4:
   News From Islamabad's Suburbs Column by Saeed Aasi: Fresh indifference

   The column lashes out at the joyride enjoyed by President Zardari to his
   palace in France as the nation is reeling under worst floods. (1,000
   words) Page 5: Business, Commerce Column by Ahmed Ali Baloch: people
   affected by flood, prime minister

   The column discusses flood devastations and visi t of the prime minister
   to several affected areas. (800 words) Page 6: Continuation of Reports
   From Other Pages Page 7: Classified Ads Page 8: Continuation of Reports
   From Other Pages Column by Khalid Nawaz: Some remarks on 'Birmingham
   tragedy'

   The column discusses the incident of throwing shoe at President Zardari
   during a public meeting in the United Kingdom. (1,000 words) Page 9:
   Continuation of Reports From Other Pages Page 10: Continuation of Reports
   From Other Pages Page 11: Sports World Page 12: National, International
   Reports

   Three-fourth of the page 12 is covered by advertisements. Report by
   special correspondent: Burning newspaper bundles attempt to gag media:
   APNS; miscreants subjected hawkers, workers to violence, threatened them
   with dire consequences

   At its emergency meeting, All Pakistan Newspapers Society condemned the
   incident in which political workers were involved. (pp 8, 12; 300 words)
   Report by special correspondent: Demonstration h eld for release of Dr
   Aafia Sidiqui, finding of missing persons; Amina Masood (HR activist) says
   protesters prevented from going to US Embassy to register protest (pp 8,
   12; 200 words) Report by Salman Ghani: UAE becomes active after Saudi
   Arabia announces assistance for people affected by flood: (pp 8, 12; 300
   words) ANN news report: Federal government not providing assistance for
   flood victims in Balochistan: Balochistan chief minister (pp 8, 12; 200
   words) Report by special correspondent: Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif
   should stop playing 'flood politics': Fauzia Wahab (PPP leader) (pp 8, 12;
   300 words) Report by special correspondent: We'll fully assist brethren
   affected by flood: Saudi ambassador (pp 8, 12; 200 words) Nawa-e Waqt
   report: Hearing on bail application of Zakiur Rehman accused of
   involvement in Mumbai attack case adjourned (pp 8, 12; 50 words) Nawa-e
   Waqt report: Twenty Pakistanis imprisoned in Maldives appeal to chief
   justice for help (pp 8, 12; 200 words) Report by special correspondent:
   Prime minister had not ordered inquiry for investigation into sugar import
   scam: Commerce Ministry (pp 8, 12; 50 words) Page 13: Supplement by a
   private university Page 14: Editorial, Lead Articles

   Page 14 has editorials and articles besides the regular gossip column "By
   the way" and regular series of Islamic teachings from the Koran. It also
   has couplets from Allama Iqbal and Muzaffar Warsi and a saying of
   Qaid-e-Azam. Editorial: Refusal by Kashmiri freedom fighting leaders to
   attend All Parties Conference of Indian prime minister; plebiscite only
   solution of Kashmir issue

   The editorial discusses an All Parties Conference summoned by the Indian
   prime minister in New Delhi today on the situation in Occupied
   (India-administered) Kashmir. The Kashmiri leaders have refused to attend
   the conference and demanded withdrawal of Indian troops from Kashmir. They
   say talks with India can only be held after withdrawal of troops. (1,200
   words) Editorial: No confidence in government; who will assist?

   The editorial discusses appeal by the prime minister that world community
   should assist and help people who have been affected by flood. There is no
   much hope that the appeal would prove effective. The government will have
   to rely on its own resources. (300 words) Editorial: Burnt shops of
   Pashtuns

   The editorial discusses torching of vehicles and dozens of markets owned
   by Pashtuns in Karachi in the wake of the killing of a Muttahida Qaumi
   Movement (MQM) MP. (100 words) Article by Mohammad Izharul Haq: Ministries
   only or dignity as well? (800 words) Article by Mohammad Tariq Chaudhry:
   Flood tide (1,000 words) Article by Amirah Ahsan: Why master has tied?
   (part-I)

   The article discusses proposed law on terror. (600 words) Article by Rana
   Ijaz Ahmed Khan: Propagation of Kashmir issue in London (800 words) Page
   15: Articles

   Page 15 has articles on national and international issues. Article by
   Abida Tahir Abbasi: Presidential palace, Pakistan Government seized by
   cowboys (800 words) Article by Fazal Hussein Awan: Clouds of mist

   The article believes that billionaire rulers do not know how a poor person
   brings up his children. (600 words) Article by Zaiba Hassan: And we'll
   continue to get charity (800 words) Article by Mohammad Sharafat Ali Zia:
   France; why law about wearing veil? (600 words) Page 16: Special Edition
   Nawa-e Waqt report: Young generation should beware of Indian nefarious
   designs; Majid Nizami says Hindus wants to turn Pakistan into Somalia,
   starve us to death (1,000 words)

   (Description of Source: Rawalpindi Nawa-e Waqt in Urdu -- Privately owned,
   widely read, conservative Islamic daily, with circulation around 125,000.
   Harshly critical of the US and India)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regardi ng use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   17) Back to Top
   Weekly Roundup of Pan-Arab TV Talk Shows 1-7 August
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at (800) 205-8615 or
   OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Middle East-- OSC Summary
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 13:49:02 GMT
   Polakow-Suransky

   3. "In Depth"

   Time and date: 1905 GMT, 26 JulyPresenter: Ali al-ZufayriGuest: Sasha
   Polakow-Suransky, editor for the US Foreign Affairs and author of The
   Unspoken Alliance book; and Nura Irikat, lawyer, human rights activist,
   and professor at Georgetown University.Topic of discussion: The program is
   devoted to discussing the relationship between Israel and the "racist"
   South Africa, economic relations, and the nuclear cooperation between
   Israel an d South Africa.OSC/JN does not plan to process this episode.

   Irikat

   4. "From Washington"

   Presenter: Abd-al-Rahim FuqaraTime and date: 1706 GMT, 3 AugustGuests:
   Fawaz Gerges, professor of international relations at London University;
   Shibly Talhami, political science professor at Maryland University; and
   Wendy Chamberlin, former US ambassador to Pakistan.The program also runs a
   recorded interview with Pentagon Spokesman Geoff Morrell.Topic of
   discussion: The program discusses the Afghanistan related documents that
   were posted to the WikiLeaks website. More specifically, the program views
   the effect of the issue on the upcoming Congress elections, the the Obama
   administration, and the US military endeavor in Afghanistan.OSC/JN plans
   to process this episode.

   Jirjis

   5. "The Opposite Direction"

   Presenter: Faysal al-QasimTime and date: 1906 GMT, 3 AugustGuests: Shafiq
   al-Ghabra, professor of political science at Kuwait University; Wajdi
   Sawahil, an expert in higher education affairs.Topic of discussion: The
   episode discusses the effects of having Western universities in the Arab
   world.OSC/JN does not plan to process the program

   Talhami

   6. "Without Borders"

   Time and date: 1905 GMT, 4 AugustPresenter: Ahmad MansurGuest: French
   Urban Affairs Minister Fadela Amara.Topic of discussion: The program
   discusses the new French regulations, which Muslims in France consider as
   targeting them. The program also discusses the threats issued by French
   President Sarkozy against French citizens of foreign origin. The program
   also discusses aspects of the president's threats, the niqab law and the
   racist behavior against foreigners in France.OSC/JN does not plan to
   process this episode. 7. " The File"

   Presenter: Sami KulaybTime and date: 1905 GMT, 6 AugustGuests: Jamil
   al-Sayyid, former Lebanese Army general, who was accused of killing
   Lebanese Pr ime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri; Dr Tahir Bu-Jalal, expert in
   international courts and law; Judge Nabil al-Arabi, expert in
   international courts.Topics of discussion: The program discusses role of
   international tribunals, their credibility and honesty in dealing with
   Arab causes.OSC/JN does not plan to process the program. 8."Open Dialogue"
   Time and date: 1903 GMT, 31 JulyPresenter: Ghassan Bin-JidduGuests: The
   program hosts Staff Brigadier General Mustafa Hamdan, former commander of
   Lebanese Republican Guard; and Dr Amin Jammal, professor of political
   science at the University of Tel Aviv, from Nazareth.Topics of discussion:
   The program is devoted to discussing the recent clashes between Lebanon
   and Israel in Al-Idaysih in southern Lebanon, the doctrine of the Lebanese
   Army, and how Israel viewed the Lebanese Army's reaction to the Israeli
   forces.OSC/JN plans to process the episode. Al-Arabiyah 1. " Beirut
   Studio" Time and date: 1905 GMT, 5 AugustPresenter : Gizelle KhuryGuests:
   Former Minister Dr Muhammad Shattah; Lebanese journalist Raghdah Dirgham;
   Syrian Journalist Thabit Salim; and Nadah Rab'ah, sister of agent for
   Israel Tariq Rab'ah.Topic of discussion: The program discusses real
   outcome of Syrian and Saudi leaders' visits to Lebanon, the military
   clashes between the Israeli and Lebanese Armies, the possibility of the
   return of the Syrian role in Lebanon, the repercussions of discovering
   Israeli agents, and reasons behind setting fire to the house of Israeli
   agent Tariq al-Rab'ah. OSC/JN does not plan to process this episode.

   Jamal

   2."From Iraq"

   Time and date: 1630 GMT, 6 AugustModerator: Hasinah WishanGuests: Staff
   Lieutenant General Dhafir Jamal, commander of the Border Guard.Topics of
   discussion: The program discusses and carries reports on the planting of
   opiates and drugs, which are threatening agriculture in Iraq. It also
   discusses the lack of car license plates, which Al-Qa'i da utilizes by
   launching attacks using stolen cars with fake number plates. The program
   also carries reports on attempts to reclaim Iraqi looted and stolen
   artifacts from all countries except Spain and Iran.OSC/JN plans to process
   this episode.

   Badi

   3. "Cairo Studio"

   Time and date: 1705 GMT, 6 AugustPresenter: Hafiz al-Mirazi.Guests:
   Muhammad Badi', the general guide of the Muslim Brotherhood, MB, in Egypt;
   Dr Ahmad Kurayma, Professor of religious legislation at Al-Azhar
   University; Dr Salim Abd-al-Jalil, assistant minister of endowment.Topics
   of discussion: The program discusses through an interview with Muslim
   Brotherhood's general guide in Egypt, its expected role in the upcoming
   elections in Egypt and attempts to unify the calls for prayers in all
   mosques in Egypt.OSC/JN processed the interview as GMP20100806693001. 4.
   "Death Industry" Time and date: 1907 GMT, 6 AugustPresenter: Rima
   SalihahGuests: Lawyer Muntasir al-Zayyat, l awyer for Islamic
   groups.Topics of discussion: The program carries the second part of an
   interview with Lawyer Muntasir al-Zayyat, a specialist in Islamic groups'
   cases, to talk about his relations with Ayman al-Zawahiri, the reason for
   withdrawing his book "Ayman al-Zawahiri as I Knew Him," his relationship
   with Al-Zawahiri, the talk about him becoming Al-Zawahiri's spokesman in
   London, and the secret of receiving one thousand Egyptian pounds from
   Al-Qa'ida.OSC/JN processed this episode as GMP20100806693004.

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   18) Back to Top
   UK security firm was target of suicide attacks in Afghan capital - Pajhwok
   Afghan News
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 13:38:26 GMT
   capital

   Text of report in English by Afghan independent Pajhwok news agency
   websiteKabul, 10 August: A suicide bomber blew himself up near a British
   security company in the Afghan capital on Tuesday, killing himself, a
   second bomber and two security guards, a security official said.A third
   guard was also injured in the gunfight and blast which happened at about
   3:30pm on street 9 of the Taimani neighbourhood in central Kabul, Brig-Gen
   Sayed Abdul Ghafar Sayedzada, head of the Kabul crime department told
   Pajhwok Afghan News.The two armed bombers, carrying her explosives in
   bags, had tried to enter the compound of the British security company,
   ARD, but were confronted by security guards, he said.A guard shot one of
   the attackers who detonated his explosives, killing both bombers and two
   ARD employees, he said.The bombers were dropped off by a Lexus sport
   utility vehicle, sa id a witness, Muhammad Akbar. The vehicle left before
   the bombers attempted to penetrate the building, he added.Two neighbouring
   houses were also damaged in the explosion.A purported Taleban spokesman,
   Zabihollah Mojahed, claimed responsibility for the incident, saying four
   bombers were involved in the attack.Mojahed said one had detonated his
   explosives and the rest were fighting national security forces.A Pajhwok
   reporter at the scene said there was no more gun fire and the area
   appeared to be under a full control of security forces.Taimani is a quiet
   residential area home to many foreign guesthouses and restaurants.The
   attack comes just a day before the holy month of Ramadan.(Description of
   Source: Kabul Pajhwok Afghan News in English -- independent news agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. o f
   Commerce.

   19) Back to Top
   Taleban claim responsibility for Kabul suicide attack - agency - Afghan
   Islamic Press
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 13:17:10 GMT
   Text of report by private Pakistan-based Afghan Islamic Press news
   agencyKabul, 10 August: A heavy explosion was heard in Taimani area (east
   of Kabul) this afternoon.A source told Afghan Islamic Press (AIP) that a
   suicide attack happened at 9th street of Taimani near a guesthouse. The
   source also said that at least 10 civilians were killed or injured.
   However, AIP does cannot confirm this report by any reliable source yet.A
   Taleban spokesman has claimed responsibility for the attack.Talking to AIP
   (over the phone), from an undisclosed location, he said that two Taleban
   who were equipped with explosive vests, hand grenades and other s mall
   weapons, attacked a foreign guesthouse located at 9th street of Taimani
   areas.He said that one of the two Taleban blew himself up inside the
   building and the second was still resisting outside. He added that some 30
   foreigners and 20 Afghans were trapped inside the building.Sources close
   to the Ministry of Interior said that the building belonged to the ART
   organization, a USAID subcontractor.Police have condoned off the area and
   there are no accurate reports on the casualties.(Description of Source:
   Peshawar Afghan Islamic Press in Pashto -- Peshawar Afghan Islamic Press
   in Pashto -- Peshawar-based agency, staffed by Afghans, that describes
   itself as an independent "news agency" but whose history and reporting
   pattern reveal a perceptible pro-Taliban bias; the AIP's founder-director,
   Mohammad Yaqub Sharafat, has long been associated with a mujahidin faction
   that merged with the Taliban's "Islamic Emirate" led by Mullah Omar;
   subscription required to access content;
   http://www.afghanislamicpress.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   20) Back to Top
   Germany Details Payments Made To Victims Of Afghan Strike In September
   "Germany Pays Out To Afghan Strike Families: Ministry" -- AFP headline -
   AFP (North European Service)
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 13:05:00 GMT
   (Description of Source: Paris AFP in English -- North European Service of
   independent French press agency Agence France-Presse)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright ho
   lder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   21) Back to Top
   Afghan leader sends letter to Obama urging strategy review - Afghan report
   - Pajhwok Afghan News
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 11:26:28 GMT
   Afghan report

   Text of report in English by Afghan independent Pajhwok news agency
   websiteKabul: President Hamed Karzai has sent a letter to his US
   counterpart, Barack Obama, asking him to review his strategy for fighting
   terrorism, an official said on Tuesday (10 August).The letter was
   dispatched a few days ago, the source familiar with the memo said on
   condition of anonymity.Karzai has stressed avoiding civilian casualties
   caused by NATO-led air strikes, the source told Pajhwok Afghan
   News.Karzai's chief spokesman, Wahid Omar, confirmed a letter was s ent to
   the White House, however, avoided providing further details.The Afghan
   president has repeatedly warned the international community that civilian
   casualties caused by foreign troops would fuel the insurgency.Meanwhile,
   the UN has released its mid-year report on civilian casualties, saying the
   deaths of non-combatants caused by pro-government forces fell 30 per cent
   in the first half of 2010 compared with the same period last year. The
   report blamed NATO and Afghan forces for the death of 386 civilians in
   this period.The report said the number of civilian deaths increased 31 per
   cent as 1,271 civilians had been killed and another 1,997 wounded in the
   first half of 2010.The concerns about Afghan civilian casualties have
   mounted after the revelation of 92,000 war logs, suggesting that some
   incidents caused civilians deaths were not reported.(Description of
   Source: Kabul Pajhwok Afghan News in English -- independent news agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   22) Back to Top
   Civil, Military Leaders Must Reciprocate UK Premier Utterance
   Article by Mir Adnan Aziz: Playing Fields of Eton - The Nation Online
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 10:51:52 GMT
   In the last week of November 1862, the British Commissioner to Rangoon,
   Captain H.N. Davis, wrote to London: "Have since visited the remaining
   State Prisoners - the very scum of the reduced Asiatic harem; found all
   corre-ct....The death of the ex-King may be said to have had no effect on
   the Mahomedan part of the populace of Rangoon, except perhaps for a few
   fanatics who watch and pray for the final triumph of Islam. A bamboo fence
   surrounds the grave, and by the time the fence is worn out, the grass will
   again have properly covered the spot, and no vestige will remain to
   distinguish where the last of the Great Moghuls rests" (in The last Mughal
   and the clash of civilisation by William Dalr-ymple).

   Orwell said: "Probably, the battle of Waterloo was won on the playing
   fields of Eton but the opening battles of all subsequent wars have been
   lost there." David Cameron of royal blood, an Etonian and Prime Minister
   at the age of 43, has openly declared Britain is no more a "junior
   partner" of the United States. Cameron's "loudmouth" logic is to make
   himself unpredictable hence more important. It is human nature to focus
   more on somebody unpredictable. Cameron wants to be poles apart from the
   political waffling of former Prime Minister Gordon Brown and Tony Blair's
   image of being a Bush poodle.

   The WikiLeaks, reports prepared in connivance with the Northern Alliance
   (pro-India) Afghan government, lacked substance. In any case, it gave
   further ammo to the likes of Hamid Karzai, our President's "brother", who
   for the umpteenth time called for NATO strikes on Pakistani soil, while
   Admiral Mullen along with Defence Secretary Robert Gates said at a
   Pentagon news conference: "There have been elements of the ISI that have
   got relationships with extremist organisations, and we consider that
   unacceptable." He also demanded of the ISI to "strategically shift its
   focus."

   David Cameron, obviously on a political high, as most world leaders feel
   when in India, spoke of his horror at the 2008 terrorist attacks in
   Mumbai. New Delhi and the Indian media directly blamed the ISI and
   Pakistani authorities for the same within seconds of the attack. Cameron
   endorsed that view when he said: "We cannot tolerate in any sense the idea
   that this country is allowed to look both ways and is able to promote the
   export of terror whether to India or Afghanistan or anywhere else in the
   world." What he conveniently tolerated was the export of terror to
   Balochistan and the rest of Pakistan and the bloody purge carried out by
   his hosts of the helpless people of occupied Kashmir.

   Totally false that his utterance was, the timing was extremely insensitive
   and callous. Pakistan dragged into an alien war had an extremely tragic
   air crash in Islamabad, whereas the country was ravaged with rains and
   floods. It was also akin to belittling the blood of about 3,000 members of
   the security forces (100 ISI officials included) that laid down their
   lives and more than 4,000 severely wounded. These figures are apart from
   the 4,000 civilian casualties along with 9,663 wounded. Other estimates
   put the figure at 30,000 civilians killed or wounded. There is a bizarrely
   confounding disconnect somewhere. The military and the politicians own
   this thankless war, yet many have said an d maintained that a change in
   policy is imperative for the survival of Pakistan.

   The government and the military owe the people an answer. If not the
   servile political leadership, General Kayani with an extended tenure owes
   an answer to the families of those martyred; why their loved ones lost
   their lives? Merely putting off an ISI delegation' visit is not enough.
   President Asif Zardari made it a point to go to London, more so in the
   wake of the called off Lt Gen Shuja Pasha-led ISI delegation visit.

   President Zardari has avai led this chance of reiterating his stance of
   having been always "focused" and needing no strategic shift in the same.
   He has also shown his unflinching resolve, despite the "odds" at home.
   After all, the colonial mindset sees more glory in seeking alien blessings
   than tending to a Peshawar to Karachi battered Pakistan.

   It is imperative the military and civilian establishment respond to
   Mahatma Cameron's (the gle eful Indians are remembering him thus)
   statements in the same vain. Diplomacy is an art practiced in reciprocity.
   Let the UK, US and Afghanistan fight their own wars for a change. That
   Afghanistan is no Waterloo and that global politics does not have playing
   fields, like Eton never had in Duke Wellington's time, will be for them a
   lesson difficult but worth learning.

   The writer is a freelance writer.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The Nation Online in English -- Website
   of a conservative daily, part of the Nawa-i-Waqt publishing group.
   Circulation around 20,000; URL: http://www.nation.com.pk)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   23) Back to Top
   Article Says Only Pakist an Can Help US, NATO Forces To Easily Leave
   Afghanistan
   Article by Umar Waqar: WikiLeaks and the last chopper - The Nation
   Online
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 08:33:42 GMT
   WikiLeaks are a hot topic for discussion these days, with Pakistan playing
   the role of the ultimate whipping boy and ISI as the target of all and
   sundry from 10 Downing Street to the Rashtrapati Bhavan. There is anger on
   losing the war on terror, as the US administration sees the last American
   solider leave the Bagram Air Base by the summer of 2011, a la April 75
   Saigon replay, when the last GI left Saigon for good.

   The chorus started with WikiLeaks conniving at the ultimate propaganda
   machine headed by publishing houses of the Guardian, New York Times and
   Der Spiegel. Even the Indian Foreign Office joined the chorus by stating:
   "We have seen media reports about classified information, supposedly from
   the US government sources, put out in public domain, on support to
   terrorism by ISI - Pakistan's military intelligence agency. Sponsorship of
   terrorism, as an instrument of policy, is wholly condemnable and must
   cease forthwith. The utilisation of territory under Pakistan's control to
   provide sanctuaries for recruiting and sustaining terrorist groups, and to
   direct terrorist activity against neighbours, must stop if our region is
   to attain its full potential for peaceful development." The new mouthpiece
   of the free world, David Cameron, after getting the necessary instructions
   from the White House, vented his anger during his recent visit to India,
   where he alleged that the Pakistani intelligence and military were
   sponsoring terror networks in Afghanistan and India.

   The WikiLeaks episode reminds us of the day when the 'last chopper' left
   Saigon in 1973, followed by the publishing of The Pentagon Papers.
   According to Wikipedia: "The papers revealed that the US ha d deliberately
   expanded its war with bombing of Cambodia and Laos and coastal raids on
   North Vietnam, none of which had been reported by the media in the US. The
   revelations widened the credibility gap between the US government and the
   people, allegedly hurting Nixon's war effort. But the most damaging
   revelations in the papers revealed that four administrations, from Truman
   to Johnson, had misled the public regarding their intentions."

   Something eerily similar is taking place today. The US administration is
   trying different methods to propagate their way out of Afghanistan, hoping
   to confuse the entire world about their withdrawal. Today, Pakistan is
   being used as the scapegoat, although the US-led NATO forces cannot easily
   exit Afghanistan without its help. It is probably too early to open up the
   Pandora's box regarding the WikiLeaks, but this does show how much
   frustrated the US and NATO forces are. They want to leave Afghanistan
   quickly but to hide their emba rrassing defeat they will make Pakistan as
   the new Cambodia and Laos.

   Putting pressure on their most precious ally will not help; in fact, it
   will worsen the situation. Pakistan is the only country that can help US
   and NATO forces to easily leave Afghanistan. As they have already worsened
   relations with Iran by imposing purposeless sanctions and are doing even
   more mundane things by pressurising their biggest ally. I think they want
   Pakistan to clean their dirty work by engaging Taliban inside Afghanistan.
   Sorry Mr Obama, but that's not part of the deal. Pakistan is not Cambodia;
   it is a nuclear power and it would be awfully hard to annihilate it.

   Thus, the so-called saviours of the world have committed shameless war
   crimes. In Iraq, every year about 30 percent of Falugean offspring's are
   born deformed and everyone knows what kind of munitions and bombs were
   used to destroy Fallujah. WikiLeaks published in The Guardian on July 25th
   describes these war crimes as : "The coalition put out a press release
   which referred to the fire fight and the air support and then failed
   entirely to record that they had just killed or wounded 11 police officers
   in Jalabad. Yet, later that week, on Sunday, June 17, as General Sherzai
   hosted a shura council at which he attempte d to reassure tribal leaders
   about the safety of coalition operations, Task Force 373 launched another
   mission, hundreds of miles south in Paktika province. The target was a
   Libyan fighter, Abu Laith al-Libi. The unit was armed with a new weapon,
   known as Himars. The plan was to launch five rockets at targets in the
   village of Nangar Khel where TF 373 believed Libi was hiding. The result
   was that they failed to find Libi but killed six Taliban fighters and
   then, when they approached the rubble of a madrassah, they found an
   'initial assessment of 7 x NC KIA' which translates as seven
   non-combatants killed in action. All of them were children. One of them
   was still alive in t he rubble: 'The Med TM immediately cleared debris
   from the mouth and performed CPR'. After 20 minutes, the child died."

   Can these ruthless operations develop goodwill in the heart of a common
   Afghan whose brother, father or son got killed by the high-tech and highly
   accurate weapons of the coalition forces? Certainly not, Mr Obama and Mr
   Cameron. As Mullah Umar remarked: "You have all the watches but we have
   all the time." And especially when your time is up; go back Mr Obama with
   bag and baggage and save the lives of the common GIs fighting in this
   purposeless long war. And why blame Pakistan with 30,000 lives lost and
   many more crippled for life on the altar of Capitol Hill? Pakistan can
   ill-afford any further destruction of its socio-economic fabric.

   If I were the US President, I would welcome my troops back home in this
   very year, rather than propagating to the whole world about reasons of
   failure in the AfPak and making Pakistan the whipping boy. I don't think
   this is the right time to get frustrated and blame others for your dirty
   work. This can also harm NATO in another way, as they could lose their
   foremost ally Turkey for good. Since frustration will lead to new
   conflicts and the possible formation of Iran-Turkey-AfPak nexus, it is
   better to leave just as the Soviets did and say: "I have learnt it the
   hard way that Afghanistan is the graveyard of empires, as I have myself
   experienced it."

   The writer is a freelance columnist.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The Nation Online in English -- Website
   of a conservative daily, part of the Nawa-i-Waqt publishing group.
   Circulation around 20,000; URL: http://www.nation.com.pk)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   24) Back to Top
   Afghan news agency head criticizes NATO over civilian deaths - Afghan
   Islamic Press
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 08:49:59 GMT
   Text of report by private Pakistan-based Afghan Islamic Press news
   agencyMohammad Yaqub Sharafat (head of Afghan Islamic Press news agency):
   How can NATO mistake civilians for the Taleban 5 km away from the
   battlefield?Since NATO and America attacked Afghanistan, civilian
   casualties caused by foreign forces have been an issue that the
   international community and the Afghan government have been unable to
   solve so far.When NATO and ISAF kill civilians in an area, they say they
   were killed because they were present in the battlefield.However, on 5
   August, a NATO plane targeted a car carrying a coffin and the relatives of
   the dead and dropped bombs on it in Hashimkhel area of Khogiani District
   in eastern Nangarhar Province approximately 5 km away from where NATO
   forces were embattled with the Taleban. Eleven people died in this
   incident, including women and children.Earlier the same day, the Taleban
   had clashed with NATO forces in Koz Korona area of Nakarkhelo village, 5
   km away. NATO forces bombarded the area and 13 people were killed. NATO
   said all of the killed were Taleban, but there were civilians among them
   at least two of whom were 12- and 13-year-old children. Local residents
   have complete information regarding the civilians killed.NATO and NATO
   commanders always talk about avoiding civilian casualties in Afghanistan
   in their remarks and speeches, but how can bombarding civilians car 5 km
   away from the battlefield be justified?There were no indications of a
   clash or armed activities in Hashemkhelo Khwar village at all and the
   vehicle was stuck in mud after heavy floods in the area.The real question
   is why did a NATO plane target a civilian vehicle carryin g a coffin 5 km
   away from the battle zone and packed with civilians, including women and
   children?There is no doubt that dropping bombs this far from the battle
   zone on women and children in a civilian car cannot be justified in any
   way. It raises questions whether NATO is really committed to sparing
   civilian lives?Does NATO follow its combat rules and regulations and
   really make sure there are no civilians in an area it is targeting?This
   and similar questions have created some doubts as to whether NATO has
   really come to save civilian lives and make attempts to spare civilian
   lives during combat.Some sources say the bombardment was called by some
   local Afghan government commanders. If that is true then NATO should not
   take responsibility for an action that has taken the lives of 11
   civilians, saddened many families and should reveal all facts and reasons
   that led to the killing of innocent people.And if Afghan officials are not
   involved then there is no other way for NATO b ut to directly take
   responsibility for killing civilians.NATO gives different reasons every
   time civilians are killed, but what angers and saddens Afghans is that on
   none of the occasions has NATO identified the spy whose wrong information
   has caused civilian casualties. In most cases some Afghans give wrong
   information to NATO forces about their personal enemies to take revenge on
   them.Anyway, bombardment by NATO in Khogiani District and in an area 5 km
   from the battle zone cannot be justified and there is no doubt that the
   many counts of civilian casualties in Afghanistan are the reasons behind
   the destabilization of Afghanistan and have created many challenges for
   NATO and the international community. This is why speculation that NATO
   will be defeated in Afghanistan is getting stronger and
   stronger.(Description of Source: Peshawar Afghan Islamic Press in Pashto
   -- Peshawar Afghan Islamic Press in Pashto -- Peshawar-based agency,
   staffed by Afghans, that describes itself a s an independent "news agency"
   but whose history and reporting pattern reveal a perceptible pro-Taliban
   bias; the AIP's founder-director, Mohammad Yaqub Sharafat, has long been
   associated with a mujahidin faction that merged with the Taliban's
   "Islamic Emirate" led by Mullah Omar; subscription required to access
   content; http://www.afghanislamicpress.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   25) Back to Top
   WTO Condemns Aussie Restrictions on NZ Apples
   Unattributed article from the "Business" page: "WTO Condemns Aussie
   Restrictions on NZ Apples" - The China Post Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 05:10:38 GMT
   GENEVA -- Australia's decades-old restrictions on imports of New Zealand
   apples break international trade laws and should be amended, the World
   Trade Organization said on Monday. The WTO panel ruling should open the
   way for New Zealand to resume sales of apples to its biggest trading
   partner after nearly 90 years, and holds out the possibility of access to
   other Asian markets where its apples are banned for similar reasons.

   Like many trade disputes this one turned on health and safety rules, which
   are vulnerable to being exploited by domestic producers to ward off
   foreign competition.

   The WTO experts did not back Wellington on all its claims, disagreeing
   that Australia's sanitary controls were arbitrary.

   But in a 597-page report they found that Australian safety checks on New
   Zealand apples were unscientific and disrupted trade more than necessary,
   and that New Zealand's rights under global trade law had been damaged as a
   result.

   The dispute marks a rare tiff across the Tasman Sea, involving two
   neighbors with about US$13 billion a year in two-way trade. Both countries
   have strict quarantine rules to protect their agriculture from foreign
   infections.

   Australia banned New Zealand apples in 1921 because of fears that fire
   blight, a disease that attacks apple and pear trees and rose bushes, could
   spread. Wellington has tried to have the ban lifted since 1986, and began
   a challenge at the WTO in 2007.

   New Zealand exports 75-80 percent of its annual crop of about 400,000
   tons, mainly to Europe and especially Germany and Britain, as well as to
   the United States and Asia, notably Taiwan.(Description of Source: Taipei
   The China Post Online in English -- Website of daily newspaper which
   generally supports the pan-blue parties and issues; URL:
   http://www.chinapost.com.tw)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited . Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   26) Back to Top
   Xinhua 'Roundup': Countries, UN Offer Condolences To China Over Deadly
   Mudslides
   Xinhua "Roundup": "Countries, UN Offer Condolences To China Over Deadly
   Mudslides" - Xinhua
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 03:32:38 GMT
   BEIJING, Aug. 11 (Xinhua) -- The United Nations and countries including
   Japan, the United States, Canada, Germany and Mexico have offered
   condolences to those affected by deadly floods and mudslides in China.

   "The secretary-general is saddened by the loss of life and devastation
   caused by the severe flooding that has affected considerable portions of
   China. He extends his deepest condolence s to the families of those who
   have died or been injured or lost their homes and possessions," said a
   statement issued by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon's spokesman on
   Tuesday."The secretary-general is aware of the tremendous efforts being
   undertaken by the government of China to evacuate people out of harm's
   way, to carry out search and rescue operations, and to respond to needs
   arising from this situation," the statement said. "He reaffirms the
   commitment of the United Nations to assist in any way in this effort
   should it be required."Landslides hit the Zhouqu County in China's
   northwestern province of Gansu early Sunday morning following torrential
   rain overnight, burying houses and crushing buildings in their way.The
   death toll from the mudslides has risen to 702, with 1,042 others still
   missing, the Ministry of Civil Affairs said Tuesday.Heavy floods have also
   caused deaths and devastation in northeastern province of Jilin and the
   southern par ts of the country over the past two months. China has been
   swiftly mobilizing relief efforts. The People's Liberation Army has
   dispatched 5,300 soldiers to Zhouqu.U.S. State Secretary Hillary Clinton
   on Tuesday also offered condolences over the flooding and mudslides in
   China."I join the American people in expressing our deep regret over the
   loss of life and devastation wrought by recent flooding in south and
   central China and by the mudslides in Gansu Province this past weekend,"
   Clinton said in a statement."The United States is providing support for
   the ongoing relief efforts through assistance to the Red Cross Society of
   China," she said."To those affected by this tragedy and to all the people
   of China, we send our heartfelt condolences," Clinton said.Canadian
   Foreign Minister Lawrence Cannon has also offered condolences over the
   deadly mudslides in Zhouqu."On behalf of the Government of Canada and all
   Canadians, I wish to express my hea rtfelt sympathy to those who have been
   affected by this terrible disaster. We send our condolences to the
   grieving families -- our thoughts are with you," he said.Canada stands
   ready to provide support to the people of China, he said, adding that
   Canadian officials in Beijing are contacting Chinese authorities to
   determine whether Canadian assistance may be requested.Mexico's Foreign
   Ministry also issued a statement to express its condolences to the people
   and government of China."The foreign ministry expresses its most sincere
   regrets to the victims' families, offers its solidarity to the government
   of the People's Republic of China and wishes for a swift recovery in the
   region," it said.German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Japanese Prime
   Minister Naoto Kan have also offered their condolences on separate
   occasions to the victims of the mudslides in Zhouqu and those
   affected.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's
   official news service for English-language audiences (New China News
   Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   27) Back to Top
   Press Roundup on Defense, Science, Technology 2-8 Aug 10
   The following a selection of relevant reports, editorials, and articles on
   defense, science, and technology published in two English newspapers--The
   News and Pakistan Observer--from 2 to 8 Aug: - Pakistan -- OSC Summary
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 07:50:11 GMT
   The 2 August issue of The News on page 1 carries a report headlined:
   "Pakistan committed in fight against Taliban: Gates." The report says: "US
   Defence Secretary Robe rt Gates defended Pakistan, saying the country was
   actively targeting militants, after leaked documents alleged Islamabad's
   spy service was guiding Afghan insurgents." The report quoted Gates as
   saying on ABC News channel: "What I see is a change in the strategic
   calculus in Pakistan. They are more and more partnering with us and
   working with us and fighting these insurgents and 140,000 soldiers are in
   north-western Pakistan fighting some of the same insurgents as we are.
   There's a concern about the allegations. But I would say that, again, we
   walked out on Pakistan and Afghanistan in 1989 and left them basically
   holding the bag. And there is always the fear that we will do that again.
   And I believe that's the reason there's a certain hedge. Pakistan has
   shown it is now committed to tackling Taliban fighters by raiding militant
   safe havens in South Waziristan and Swat. And so the Pakistanis going
   after any of these groups, I believe, overall, helps us in wha t we're
   trying to accomplish, both with respect to Afghanistan and with respect to
   al-Qaeda." The report adds: "His defence of Pakistan comes after new
   questions about links between the country's powerful Inter-Services
   Intelligence agency and Taliban leaders." Robert Gates Hints at Military
   Operation on Both Sides of Pakistan-Afghan Border

   The 3 August issue of The News on page 1 carries a report headlined:
   "Gates hints at operation inside Pakistan." The report says: "The US has
   said that it is undertaking a major build-up of forces in eastern
   Afghanistan, a stronghold of Haqqani faction, for a decisive push against
   terrorists' safe havens close to the borders of Pakistan. Disclosing this,
   the US Secretary of Defence, Robert Gates, hinted that the operation could
   be one 'on both sides of the border.' His comments came as he voiced
   concern over leaks by whistleblower website Wikileaks that Pakistan's
   military Intelligence was maintain ing links with Taliban and al-Qaeda."
   The report quoted Gates saying on ABC program: "We are increasing
   cooperation with Pakistanis in terms of working on both sides of the
   border, in terms of trying to prevent people from crossing that border. We
   are increasing our forces in eastern Afghanistan that will help us do
   this." The report adds: "US and Nato forces which would swell to almost
   150,000 by September this year have so far only concentrated on flushing
   out Taliban from their southern Afghanistan strongholds of Helmand and
   Kandahar. The American forces are yet to launch a major foray into eastern
   Afghan provinces of Paktia, Khost, Paktika, Gardez, Logar and Ghazni which
   are a bastion of Jalaluddin Haqqani." US General Offers Logistic Support
   for Pakistan's Flood-Relief Efforts

   The 4 August issue of Pakistan Observer on page 1 carries a report
   headlined: 'US Gen discusses logistics with COAS." The report say:
   "Commander Tran sportation Command, United States Armed Forces General
   Duncan J. McNabb called on Chief of Army Staff, General Ashfaq Parvez
   Kayani at General Headquarters. Military sources said that Gen Duncan
   expressed his grief over the loss of lives and destruction caused by the
   floods in various areas of the country especially in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
   Gen Kayani thanked the US Gen for his support and told him that the army
   is taking active part in relief activities for the flood affectees a nd is
   transporting them to safety via helicopters and boats. Meanwhile US
   embassy in a press statement said General Duncan McNabb is in Pakistan for
   a two day scheduled visit to consult with General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani,
   Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff, regarding U.S. military logistics
   operations in the region... During the meeting with General Kayani, McNabb
   emphasized the U.S. commitment for continued support to Pakistan during
   the current flood relief efforts and beyond. The U.S. Transportation
   Command is responsible for the overall coordination of transportation,
   sustainment and distribution efforts across the U.S. military and in
   coordination with partner nations." US Spokesman Disagrees With President
   Zardari's Assessment of War in Afghanistan

   The 4 August issue of The News on page 1 carries a report headlined:
   "White House, Pentagon disagree." The report says: "The White House
   dismissed comments by President Zardari that US-backed coalition forces
   are losing the war in Afghanistan. White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said
   US President Barack Obama, who days earlier said progress was being made
   in Afghanistan, disputed the assessment from President Asif Ali Zardari.
   'I don't think that the US President would agree with President Zardari's
   conclusions that the war is lost' Gibbs told journalists. The reaction
   came after Zardari said in an interview published in France that the
   coalition is losing the war against the Taliban." Pa kistani Military
   Operation in Bajuar Agency Leads to Surrender of 45 Insurgents

   The 5 August issue of The News on page 12 carries a report headlined: "45
   militants surrender in Bajaur Agency." The report says: "Forty-five
   militants, including three known commanders, surrendered to security
   forces in Sarkari area of Nawagai subdivision in Mohmand Agency, official
   sources said. The sources said that 45 insurgents belonging to Afghan
   militant group operating in Bajaur Agency and led by Qari Zia-ur-Rehman
   laid down weapons and surrendered to security forces. They included three
   commanders Abdur Rehman, Aiwab Khan and Hashim Khan. Meanwhile, security
   forces seized weapons including bombs, rockets and mortar shells,
   Kalashnikov rifles, anti-tank mines and hand grenades during search
   operation in the mountainous Charmang valley of Nawagai subdivision." US
   Likely To Offer T wo Intelligence Gathering Systems to Pakistani Military

   The 7 August issu e of The News on page 1 carries a report headlined: "US
   ready to provide intelligence gathering systems." The report says: "The
   United States Under Secretary of Defence for Policy, Michele A Fluornoy,
   said the US had offered two intelligence gathering systems, unmanned
   aerial vehicle (UAV) and Scan Eagles, to Pakistani military and it was up
   to them to make a choice. Responding to a question about provision of
   drone technology during a press talk here at the US Embassy, the visiting
   official said the US had given details of two intelligence gathering
   systems and the cost to the Pakistan military and it is up to them to make
   a choice and it is hoped that they would choose them and forward the same
   to us, she said. Michele A Flournoy is in Pakistan to co-chair the Defence
   Consultative Group (DCG) meeting, which concluded in Rawalpindi on Friday.
   The Scan Eagle system is designed for autonomous field operation. Scan
   Eagle carries a payload of 6 kg, operating at a ceiling of 5,000m and can
   be launched and retrieved over any terrain, including naval operations.
   American forces and security agencies use the unarmed UAV Shadow as an
   intelligence asset and for training operatives of Reaper and Predator
   drones. These UAVs are unarmed and essentially low flying machines used
   for reconnaissance and intelligence gathering... To a question about her
   meeting with the Army chief, she said they discussed issues related to the
   war against terrorism; that we did not discuss launching of operation in
   North Waziristan... About defence cooperation, she said since 2001, the US
   had provided to Pakistan more than $12 billion in security assistance and
   $8.1 billion in Coalition Support Funds; that this year alone, Pakistan
   will be provided more than $1 billion in security assistance."

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiri es regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   28) Back to Top
   Egyptian Press 10 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from the Egyptian press on 10 August.
   To request additional processing, contact the OSC Customer Center at (800)
   205-8615 or OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Egypt -- OSC Summary
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 07:44:57 GMT
   http://www.ahram.org.eg/ http://www.ahram.org.eg/

   1. Article by Dr Nabil Umar comments on Sa'd-al-Din Ibrahim's remark "the
   Muslim Brotherhood is a powerful alternative to the regime". "The Muslim
   Brotherhood may be stronger than other political parties. But it is part
   of the greater scheme of political weakness," the writer says. (p 4; 500
   words)

   2. Article by Dr Mustafa al-Fiqi examines the situation i n South Sudan
   and the future that awaits it. "We Arabs have not offered South Sudan the
   incentive to stay as part of a greater Arab entity," the writer says. (p
   11; 2,000 words)

   3. Article by Dr Wahid Abd-al-Majid examines whether renewed tension in
   South Lebanon is a prologue for war. The writer discusses three possible
   scenarios: (p 10; 1,500 words)

   Cairo Al-Akhbar --state-owned daily; root URL:

   http://www.elakhbar.org.eg http://www.elakhbar.org.eg

   1. Editorial says signs indicate that the NDP is capable of maintaining
   the majority in the next parliamentary elections. (p 6; 250 words)

   2. Article by Ilham Abu-al-Fatah deduces from official statements that "we
   still suffer from lack of strategy to manage crises" such as that of
   wheat. (p 17; 400 words)

   3. Report by Halah al-Isawi points to the amendments which Obama
   introduced on his predecessor's missile shield plan designed to deter
   Iran, which he criticized dur ing his presidential campaign. The writer
   views the amendment as proof that Obama "backed down and yielded to the
   Israeli view that opts for the military option." She examines the "main
   features of the amendments". (p 18; 1,200 words)

   4. Report by Amal al-Maghrabi examines tension between Israel and Turkey
   and the Israeli "provocation" that always stands in the way of efforts to
   mend the fences. (p 18; 800 words)

   5. Report by Radwa Abd-al-Latif examines the war between the United States
   and Taliban. The writer argues that the United States is missing the fact
   that the Taliban's power lies in its ideology that still attracts
   supporters opposed to the US policies and unjust wars. (p 18; 1,000 words)

   Cairo Al-Jumhuriyah -- state-owned daily; root URL:

   http://www.gom.net.eg http://www.gom.net.eg

   1. Article by Chief Editor Muhammad Ali Ibrahim argues "the electronic
   signatures that make the headlines in the pri vate and party press are not
   proof of success for the opposition as much as they are proof of political
   emptiness and vacuum." The writer says "bloggers" work without any
   political program and do not express the masses or the poor, because they
   have the luxury to sit before computer screens for hours. He observes that
   most blogs are based in Cairo and wonders why there is no single blog that
   speaks for the dreams of farmers or labor. "The NDP is a big party, the
   biggest in the Arab region.....Important as it is to have an electronic
   instrument to fight rivals, this will never be the main goal of the
   party," the writer says. (p 3; 1,000 words)

   2. Editorial points to Netanyahu's attempt "to wash his hands clean of the
   blood of unarmed human right fighters and activists" by pinning the blame
   on the minister of defense, although the decision to attack the freedom
   fleet was collectively taken by the Israeli government. The paper stresses
   that the government of the "three partners" will not escape punishment. (p
   8; 200 words)

   Cairo Al-Wafd -- opposition New Wafd Party daily; root URL:

   http://www.alwafd.org http://www.alwafd.org

   1. Front-page headline highlights Wafd Chairman al-Sayyid al-Badawi's
   remark at a massive rally "Egypt is too big to be handed down to heirs".
   Full coverage of the rally is provided in inner pages. (pp 1; 7-9; 10,000
   words)

   Cairo Al-Misri Al-Yawm --Yawm--Independent daily focusing on domestic
   issues

   1. Report by team of correspondents notes the launch of a new Facebook
   campaign called "the popular union for change" that rejects all suggested
   presidential candidates. The founder of the campaign, Ahmad Ammar, says
   the campaign seeks to sensitize voters of the negative sides in all
   candidates. The report cites Muhammad Sa'd al-Katatni as saying the
   National Society for Change has not reached a final decision on boycotting
   e lections. (p 1; 300 words)

   Cairo Al-Dustur -- Independent anti-regime daily newspaper

   1. Report cites politicians as saying Ali-al-Din Hilal's affirmation that
   Mubarak is the NDP presidential candidate "torpedoes the hereditary rule
   project". (pp 1, 3; 700 words)

   Cairo Rose Al-Yusuf --State-run daily newspaper

   1. Article by Abd-al-Qadir Shuhayb says Abu-Mazin seems to be waiting for
   guarantees that will not be offered in the foreseen future. The writer
   says it will be hard for Abu-Mazin to make a decision on direct talks
   despite the green light he obtained from Arab foreign ministers,
   especially since Fatah is opposed to direct talks. (p 2; 650 words)

   Cairo Al-Shuruq Al-Jadid -- Independent pro-reform liberal daily,
   moderately critical of the government

   1. Article by Wa'il Qandil wonders where ElBaradei "gets all that
   confidence" when he affirms that the hereditary rule project will not
   pass, although it is procee ding earnestly." The writer fears that the
   people may rest so reassured that the project will not pass and hence turn
   their attention to other issues as the "other party extends horizontally
   and vertically everyday." (p 2; 650 words; processing)

   Cairo Al-Yawm Al-Sabi --Independent weekly focusing on domestic issues

   1. Article by Chief Editor Khalid Salah offers advice to voters when the
   time comes to elect parliamentary representatives. Of the advices he
   offers, "Don't ever believe that appointing the sons of the constituency
   in government jobs or extending sanitary drainage pipes in your
   neighborhood is more important than political reform"; "don't be deceived
   by the slogan 'the devil you know'"; and "don't be tempted by bribes". (p
   3; 700 words)

   2. Report examines "the war of collecting signatures and hanging posters"
   among supporters of Jamal Mubarak, ElBaradei and Ayman Nur. (p 3; 1,200
   words; pr ocessing)

   3. Report by Ahmad Mustafa cites observers as they tie the return of Dr
   Sa'd-al-Din Ibrahim to the visit which the US prosecutor general paid to
   Egypt. (p 5; 500 words)

   4. Report by Amal Raslan examines the crisis between Egypt and HAMAS in
   the wake of the rockets that were fired from Sinai in the direction of
   Elat and Aqaba. (p 6; 600 words)

   5. Report by Merit Ibrahim and Wahbah al-Sayyid argues that "panic of
   al-Qa'ida and Mosad" was behind the Black Berry crisis in the UAE and
   Saudi Arabia. (p 6; 500 words)

   6. Report by Nur Ali examines signs that several MB parliamentarians will
   be crossed out of the Muslim Brotherhood's election ticket in light of the
   evaluation of their performance in parliament. (p7; 1,200 words)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   29) Back to Top
   Syrian Press 9 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from the Syrian press on 9 August. To
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735. - Syria -- OSC Summary
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 07:27:40 GMT
   http://tishreen.info/ http://tishreen.info)

   In a 345-word editorial in Tishrin entitled "Betting on the Collective
   Memory," Chief Editor Samirah al-Masalimah, commenting on the developments
   concerning the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, says: "It is true that
   individual memory is forgetful by nature, but the collective memory is
   certainly not like that, and the nation's memory must be present at any
   time." She adds: "Our need for it is linked to the importance of a
   ffirming that the behavior of the Israeli intelligence, with its different
   apparatuses and various names, from the Mosad to the Shabak and others,
   that is entrenched in its arrogance, and political crimes everywhere, is
   constant behavior rooted in the nature of these gangs, and has reached a
   point where it should not be overlooked."Pointing out that "Israel
   assassinated dozens of Palestinian leaders inside the occupied land, and
   in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as in Dubai, Rome, Paris, London, and other,
   Arab and Western, capitals, using all means and tools of assassination,"
   the writer asks: "What are Israel's links, officially and on the security
   level, between its black rooms and the investigators of the international
   investigation commission, and consequently with the Special Tribunal, that
   make Israel able to say openly and in full view of everyone that the
   (expected) indictment carries within it the seeds of sedition in Lebanon."
   Al-Masalimah says that "the biggest question is: What is the nature of the
   Zionist plan and its scope?" She concludes: "In any case, we believe that
   all of us, and the Lebanese in particular, should prevent Israel (from
   implementing) its old new project, and affirm that Arab Lebanon, the
   country of coexistence and national unity, is concerned by opposing Israel
   on the political, media, and resistance levels."In a 450-word editorial in
   Al-Thawrah entitled "The American Failure," Chief Editor As'ad Abbud
   writes about the war on terror and its implications. He says: "The United
   States raised the banner of the war on terror, but turned out to be the
   greatest failure in that regard, because it was preoccupied with the
   banner itself, under which it sought shade, while it was dwarfed in the
   face of the basic task that it imposed on itself, that is, the fight
   against terror." "There is no doubt," he adds, "that the American people
   suffered sever e terrorist strikes, more than once. On that basis, the
   United States declared war on terror; but to begin with, the fight against
   terror does not need justifications. However, the American approach was to
   exploit the fight against terror then the war against it... (ellipsis as
   received) and not to confront it effectively, in spite of the legions that
   arrived in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere."Abbud considers that "the
   United States was led to the war on terror on the basis of very erroneous
   criteria, from the description of terrorist incidents, to the
   politicization of terrorism, and the war against it! Even on the military
   level, and despite the armed involvement, the international alliances, the
   bombing of safe houses, and the killing of civilians, it (the United
   States) failed to subdue an organization like the Taliban, or a poor
   country like Afghanistan. Is it true that America fought terrorism in
   Afghanistan, and in Iraq? And what about the terrorism in occ upied
   Palestine? If the United States does not know what its failure would mean
   opposite the Taliban and Al-Qa'ida, as well as its failure in Iraq,
   despite the devastation it caused in that country, then this is certainly
   stupidity not worthy of a major power that possesses the largest research
   and study centers in the world."The writer indicates that "the impact of a
   Taliban victory would not be limited to Afghanistan, and therefore the res
   ults of the American effort would be the broadening of the base of
   terrorism, activating its environment according to its (America's) vision
   and description of it." "In addition to that," he says, "there are
   political factors that control the American position in determining who is
   a terrorist. America rejects (finding) a definition for terrorism, 'which
   is an old Syrian request,' and, consequently, it let itself choose a
   purely political description of what it calls terrorism." "Imagine the
   Ameri can position," Abbud adds, "vis-a-vis a country hostile to Israel
   that supports the resistance to occupation -- an Arab and a Muslim
   (country) that rejects hegemony. How can it be designated by the United
   States? A supporter of terrorism, a silent (observer), or more than that?
   The American policy has distorted the natural human position regarding
   terrorism, thus opening the doors wide to its activities, and (later)
   covering its actions politically."He concludes: "Can a sane person believe
   that those who fight terrorism do not see it also in the destruction of
   Lebanon, and in the phosphorous bullets on Gaza, and in the heinous crime
   on the Freedom Flotilla? The United States continues to pull out every
   year from its drawers reports and documents that it reads to the world,
   just as they are, because those who were required to (declare) submission
   did not." (Description of source: Damascus Al-Thawrah Online in Arabic --
   Website of the government-owned newspaper; URL:

   http://thawra.alwehda.gov.sy/ http://thawra.alwehda.gov.sy)

   In a 470-word article in Al-Ba'th entitled "Between the Al-Udaysah Tree,
   the Ma'man Allah Cemetery, and Tal al-Qadi," Abd-al-Latif Umran, chairman
   of the board of directors, writes about the continuing "Zionist project."
   He says: "There are no changes today in Israel's Zionist and racist
   policies, as the aggression continues to be associated with the rigging of
   geography and history; there are no geographical or political boundaries
   for Israel and its ambitions in the region; and the point the ruling
   fascists' force can reach constitutes the vital range of Israel."The
   writer adds: "The blatant aggression yesterday on the Lebanese village of
   Al-Udaysah shows the scandalous arrogance of Israel, and (highlights) the
   great pain resulting from this regrettable change in the region, because
   the international community considered that the Al-Udaysah tree prev ented
   the enemy from observing the areas behind the Blue Line inside the Arab
   land, and saw that the tree 'is on the Israeli side.' In addition, America
   does not allow the Lebanese Army to use the American arms (it has) to
   counter the Israeli aggression, and does not permit any Arab army such
   use."Umran points out that "the attitude of the West regarding the tree is
   recognition of the fallout of occupation, such as arrogance and
   domination, which makes the issue of supporting the resistance an honor,
   and an essential duty."

   He continues: "In this context, the village of al-Araqib in the Negev was
   wiped out, as well as the historic Ma'man Allah cemetery in the holy city,
   one of the oldest Muslim grave sites," indicating that "this comes in
   light of regional and international pressure to resume the
   Palestinian-Israeli negotiations." The writer goes on to say that "with
   the continuing occupation and Zionist aggression, Israel perse veres in
   defying the international community, and inventing new kinds of blatant
   assault on history and rights," noting that Israel worked with UNESCO to
   give the site of Tal al-Qadi in the Golan Heights the new name, 'Tel Dan,'
   using forged maps and documents that are not recognized." He concludes by
   saying: "It is the Zionist project, opposite which is the Arab nationalist
   thought, and its project should be reconsidered in a changing world in
   which the resistance, with its various military, intellectual, and
   political forms, has demonstrated that it is one of the most important
   ways to strengthen the Arab national project in the face of the Zionist
   project; it is the most significant and only opponent." (Description of
   source: Damascus Al-Ba'th Online in Arabic -- Website of the newspaper of
   the ruling Ba'th Party; URL:

   http://www.albaath.news.sy/ http://www.albaath.news.sy)

   In a 310-word commentary in Al-Watan entitled "Shuffling the Cards in
   Preparation for a New War," Malik al-Natur, writing about the possibility
   of war, says: "As soon as Israel completes a game, it starts a new one
   with the sole purpose of shuffling the cards in the region in order to
   fuel the conflict, (taking it) to its limits, which will realize Israel's
   desire to ignite a new war through which it will try to restore its
   respectability and damaged prestige, after failing to achieve anything in
   the wars of July (2006), and Gaza." "Israel," he adds, "recognizes that
   this war will not be a tactical or a limited one, and that it will be
   crucial (for it) to impede the significant progress of the resistance and
   its approach in the region. It will be open as well, because the
   resistance alliance will no longer accept being singled out."Indicating
   that "the Americans have failed in Iraqp, while it (Israel) has failed in
   Lebanon and Gaza, at a time when it realizes that (victory over) Iran is
   elusive , while the lies of peace have fallen through," the writer says:
   "Israel as we know it, will not calm down and will not stay quiet seeing
   itself rolling from one failure to the other, and from one scandal to
   another. That is why it will be looking for a pretext, through which it
   will regain its role; and this window, in its opinion, will only be war,
   because it does not know any other way to achieve its objectives."Calling
   on Arabs to "wake up" and "support the resistance approach and its tools
   in the face of the fiercest enemy in history, instead of waiting for the
   results as observers, al-Natur indicates that "the recent Saudi move in
   coordination with Syria to prevent sedition in Lebanon through the
   politicized Special Tribunal, is an important step toward strengthening
   Arab solidarity in the face of Israel's tricks to affect Lebanon." He
   concludes by saying: "The timing is very important, because the features
   of a new war have become clear. So, it is necessary to change the
   atmosphere that prevailed during the July war with a new climate of
   solidarity and unity in order to thwart the Zionist goal of controlling
   the region." (Description of source: Damascus Al-Watan Online in Arabic --
   Website of the independent daily; URL:

   http://www.alwatan.sy/ http://www.alwatan.sy)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   30) Back to Top
   Sanctions Force Government To Enforce Policy of Self-Sufficiency
   Unattributed news report: "Self-Sufficiency Order for Strategic Products"
   - Donya-ye Eqtesad online
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 21:11:07 GMT
   Industry and mine desk: The implementation of a new round of sanctions by
   the West against Iran has led Tehran's senior officials to make Iran
   self-sufficient in the manufacture of strategic products at any cost. The
   minister of industries and mines told all the Ministry of Industries'
   subsidiary units: "What I am announcing from this platform today should be
   considered as a circular to all units: support all products that make the
   country self-sufficient in any industrial sector without any limitations."

   According to a report by Donya-ye Eqtesad, Ali Akbar Mehrabian added: "In
   future, the most important duty of the Industrial Development and
   Renovation Organization of Iran (IDRO) must be unconditional support for
   industrialists. IDRO must soon prepare a set of regulations that would
   support any researcher who has a plan for the manufacture of an industrial
   product." The member of the 10th cabinet referred to the implementa tion
   of the new round of sanctions by Western countries and said: "If Western
   countries prevent the import of machineries and parts needed in our
   industries, they should be certain that we will close our country's doors
   to their secondhand junk." The import of 100 types of catalysts

   The industries minister, who was speaking on the sidelines of the
   inauguration ceremony of the country's first catalyst factory, announced
   the import of 100 types of catalysts into the country and said: "Out of
   these 100 types of imported catalysts, 25 have more applications, and we
   have now become self-sufficient in the manufacture of these catalysts.
   With the facilities provided by the Ministry of Industries, we must become
   self-sufficient in the manufacture of all kinds of catalysts within the
   next year."

   According to Donya-ye Eqtesad, as one of the most important strategic
   products, catalysts are used at least once in more than 90 percent of all
   the fuel mole cules normally used in transport systems. In addition,
   around 80 percent of chemical products are made with the aid of catalysts
   and catalyst products. For example, the methane gas that is used by
   families for heating purposes is turned into methanol, which is a clean
   gas known all over the world, through the use of a particular type of
   catalyst. However, if the catalysts that are used in the country's
   refineries, in petrochemical products, and even in the steel industry are
   sanctioned, most of these will suffer serious problems within the next
   three to five years, and some may even stop production. These five
   countries

   It is worth mentioning that 7,000 tons of catalysts are used in the
   country annually and that the amount of currency spent on the import of
   all types of catalysts into the country is around $400 million, and this
   figure will double in the near future. Furthermore, the value of six types
   of catalysts, the knowledge for the production of which has become
   indigenized, equals approximately 25 percent of all imported catalysts;
   this amounts to $98 million annually.

   At present, only the US, Britain, France, Germany, and Denmark can
   manufacture industrial catalysts globally, but, from now on, Iran will be
   added to the list of countries that manufacture catalysts.
   Self-sufficiency in one year

   The industries minister referred to the possibility of manufacturing three
   kinds of strategic catalysts domestically and said: "At present, there is
   a possibility of manufacturing 20 kinds of industrial catalysts on an
   experimental basis inside the country." The mines and industries minister
   said that it is being forecast that, by the end of the current year, the
   industrial and mass manufacture of three other catalysts will be possible
   domestically. He explained: "At the moment, 100 kinds of industrial
   catalysts are manufactured in different countries, and, under present
   conditions, Iran has obtained the technica l know-how for all these
   catalysts." He added that currently approximately 7,000 tons of different
   industrial catalysts are being used in the country's various industries
   and said: "These catalysts are used mainly in the oil, petrochemical, and
   steel industries and refineries." He emphasized that, when the needed
   catalysts are manufactured domestically, there will be a savings of $400
   million in currency leaving the country and said: "The manufacture of
   catalysts domestically is economically viable because this strategic
   product has various uses in the country's different industries." Planning
   for export

   Mehrabian also reported that planning is under way to export catalysts to
   countries that request it. He referred to the possibility of manufacturing
   two types of refined and petrochemical gasoline domestically and said:
   "One kind of gasoline is extracted from crude oil using the refinery
   method, and the other kind of gasoline is procured from petrochemical
   complexes." Mehrabian pointed out that existing petrochemical units can
   produce 15 million liters of gasoline daily and emphasized: "With the
   indigenization of gasoline catalysts, both methods for the production of
   gasoline can be carried out simultaneously."

   On the other hand, during this ceremony, Majid Hedayat, managing director
   of IRDO, said: "Catalysts made in Iran will soon be mocking their Western
   counterparts through their significant and pronounced presence in global
   markets."

   The industries and mines minister added: "Today, our country has turned
   into a design power, and, in the coming decades, Iran's products and
   capabilities will have plenty to say on the international scene."

   The managing director of the National Petrochemical Company, Abdolhoseyn
   Bayat, stressed the need to support domestic manufacturers and
   industrialists and to cover the investment risk for the manufacture of
   industria l catalysts. He said: "At the moment, at the order of the oil
   minister, a comprehensive electronic system has been launched for the
   purchase of products and equipment inside the country so that, if there is
   a possibility of a product being manufactured domestically, there will no
   longer be any imports in that sector." He pointed out that all the
   domestically manufactured products and equipment will be included in this
   electronic system with an identification code and said: "The Oil Ministry
   is also required to use the domestically manufactured equipment and to
   support domestic manufacturers."

   (Description of Source: Tehran Donya-ye Eqtesad online in Persianwebsite
   of privately owned paper that focuses on economic issues; appears to take
   positions based on financial rather than political considerations;
   www.donya-e-eqtesad.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obta ined from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   31) Back to Top
   Business Community Not Satisfied With Pakistan-Afghanistan Transit Trade
   Pact
   Report by Mushtaq Ghumman: Controversial APTTA: Ministry not interested
   in taking Cabinet into confidence - Business Recorder Online
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 07:12:24 GMT
   ISLAMABAD (August 10 2010): The Commerce Ministry is not interested in
   taking the Federal Cabinet into confidence over the controversial
   Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA), recently agreed
   between the two countries. The country's business community believes that
   the pact, which is yet to be formally signed between the two countries,
   does not serve Pakistan's interests.

   Sources said that the C ommerce Ministry would brief the top leaders of
   national political parties about the 'secret benefits' of the pact,
   tailored under reported pressure of Washington. "The Ministry will clear
   the doubts of national leadership about the record notes, now being
   converted into a pact and signed in the presence of US Secretary of State
   Hillary Clinton and Ambassador Richard Holbrook," sources said.

   Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani, sources said, had directed the Ministry
   of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Commerce to jointly give a presentation
   to national leaders to remove their apprehensions. The top brass of
   Commerce Ministry, however, is worried that national leaders would
   criticise it, especially for offering a 'side letter', which would allow
   Indian goods to be transported through Wahgah border to Afghanistan at
   some future date. "Thanks to America, Afghanistan gets what India was
   dying for the last several years," commented one of the stakeholders .

   Provincial governments have also raised their voice against the federal
   government for not taking them into confidence over the undesired
   agreement. Commerce Ministry also claims that the General Headquarters
   (GHQ) and Inte- Services Intelligence (ISI) were taken on board before the
   'record notes' were signed with the Afghan delegation. This claim has not
   been substantiated from other sources, including ISPR.

   The 'record notes', which would now be incorporated in the agreement, were
   finalised by the officials of the two countries at a local hotel. The
   'record notes' show that the meeting was held between the Afghan Finance
   Minister Dr Omar Zakhilwal, who reached Islamabad on Saturday evening, a
   day prior to the signing, Dr Anwar-ul-Haq Ahady, Afghan Commerce Minister,
   Amin Fahim, Commerce Minister, and Dr Abdul Hafeez Sheikh, Finance
   Minister, on July 17, 2010.

   The meeting was held in a spirit of co-operation and understanding. The
   two sides stated the ir positions and agreed to resolve the issues, which
   could not be settled during the meeting of Joint Working Group (JWG) held
   on 16-17 July, 2010. Pakistan's business community has dispatched comments
   on the 'record notes' which probably would not be taken on board by the
   government, stated one disheartened private transporter.

   (Description of Source: Karachi Business Recorder Online in English --
   Website of a leading business daily. The group also owns Aaj News TV; URL:
   http://www.brecorder.com/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   32) Back to Top
   JFJB Views US Military Option Against Iran Unlikely
   Article by Tian Yuan: "Use Force or Mouth?" - Jiefangjun Bao Onli ne
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 06:40:03 GMT
   Was it the intention of Mullen's remark to expose the secret about the
   true military card in the hands of US policy on Iran or to help the US
   administration send "harsh words" to Iran in order to up the bargaining
   counters for negotiations?

   For many years, the United States had always either not uttered a single
   word or had been ambiguous or had spoken evasively on the issue of whether
   or not it would use force against Iran. Therefore, the actual state of
   affairs was unclear, and this provided room for people to chase the wind
   and clutch at shadows (speak or act on hearsay evidence) or even make
   insinuations. If we leave aside for a moment the issue of whether or not
   the United States really has the intention and plan to use force and
   merely look at the timing that Mullen chose to make the remark, we will
   feel that there is a di fferent kind of arcane truth (to what he said).
   Since the United Nations promulgated new measures to impose further
   sanctions this June, including banning member states from exporting heavy
   weapons to Iran, the United States itself has again been intensifying its
   efforts to unilaterally engage in a set of "malicious moves" to impose
   sanctions on Iran. After that, the European Union, its old ally, also
   followed in its footsteps and introduced unilateral sanctions that are
   aimed at Iran's energy sector. The energy industry, including petroleum
   and natural gas, is an important route for Iran to gain foreign exchange
   and transfuse blood into economic and social development in the country.
   Obviously, this is intended as a jab at Iran's soft ribs and to cut off
   Iran's road to wealth!

   Faced with higher and higher waves of sanction voices and more and more
   relentless sanction methods, Iran, which is used to sanctions and
   punishments from western countries, appea red not to have shown much fear,
   much less admitted defeat. Yadollah (Javani), deputy commander for
   political affairs of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, struck a
   "fighter" posture and claimed that the Iranian armed forces are not
   "vegetarians" and have long ago formulated a forceful plan to deal with
   the possible use of force against Iran by the United States or Israel. He
   also said: Iran has long ago gotten used to this kind of "child's" play
   that the United States employed to pressure Iran.

   A western saying says that there are two sides to the coin. Behind the
   economic means used by the United States to impose sanctions on Iran in
   every possible way, dialogues conducted recently between the two sides at
   the negotiating table also evolved overtly and covertly as well as vividly
   and dramatically. First, the US secretary of state and secretary of the
   treasury performed a two-person act and said that the US administration
   wil l still devote itself to solving the Iran nuclear issue through
   diplomatic channels. After that, a spokesman of the US State Department
   said that over "the next few weeks" consultations would be held together
   with Russia, China, Britain, France, and Germany and claimed that this
   "mechanism is a suitable communication channel." At the same time, Iran
   also continued to call for reopening talks with the International Atomic
   Energy Agency and submitted a letter to the latter in a serious manner to
   express its eager wish for "unconditional" talks on the nuclear fuel
   exchange issue.

   There is an old saying in China, "There can never be too much deception in
   war," which perhaps can be very appropriately applied at this time and in
   this scenario to interpret Mullen's authoritative viewpoint. The old
   scores am ong the rivers and lakes between the United States and Iran and
   their readiness to go to war have gone on year after year and g eneration
   after generation. The two sides had engaged in battles of words sometimes
   and resorted to use of force to force each other at other times but they
   eventually did not walk to the fringe of war. At the moment, one foot of
   the United States is bogged down in the quagmire of the war in Iraq and
   the other is stranded in the Afghan battlefield, and the United States'
   two hands are also busy utilizing the military drills with the ROK to
   upset plans for the East Asian security issue while making indiscreet
   remarks on the issue of China's South China Sea. The United States, which
   has always considered itself the "world police," really finds it a bit
   hard to cope with too many problems, and the possibility of it raising its
   hands to strike Iran at this critical moment is probably almost zero.
   Therefore, the "military option" revealed by Mullen undoubtedly is a "big
   stick" to intimidate the adversary and is only talks about military
   strategie s on paper. If we mechanically apply a currently popular
   terminology in the international financial sector to this, this would be a
   "stress test" that the US military conducted on Iran on the Iran nuclear
   issue! It (the United States) was only exercising its lips.

   (Description of Source: Beijing Jiefangjun Bao Online in Chinese --
   Website of daily newspaper of the Central Military Commission of the
   People's Liberation Army (PLA), reporting on a wide range of military
   affairs. URL: http://www.chinamil.com.cn/)Attachments:jf0809b.pdf

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   33) Back to Top
   Gen Kayani 'Demands' ISAF, Afghanistan To Halt Militants Infiltration
   Report by M aqbool Malik: "Kayani for Halt to Militants Infiltration" -
   The Nation Online
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 06:17:39 GMT
   ISLAMABAD - Chief of Army Staff, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, has
   demanded of the commanders of ISAF and Afghan National Army (ANA) to take
   appropriate steps in order to purge Afghanistan from terrorist sanctuaries
   rather than blaming Pakistan.

   He made these remarks during the 31st meeting of the military forum, the
   Tripartite Commission comprising USA-led ISAF, Afghanistan and Pakistan
   held in Kabul on Monday.

   Well-placed military sources informed TheNation that General Kayani asked
   the allied commanders of ISAF as well as ANA for appropriate steps to curb
   infiltration of militants from Afghanistan into Pakistan. He questioned
   the ability of ISAF and ANA, saying if Pakistan with its meagre resources
   had established hundreds of check posts on its b order, what stopped the
   ISAF and ANA from taking such steps, as they still lagged behind thus
   giving greater freedom of movement to the Afghan militants. "ISAF and ANA
   should have checked and curbed illegal border crossings a long time ago,
   but failed so far," the sources quoted the COAS as telling the allied
   delegates.

   Meanwhile, the ISPR in its statement, issued here said that General Ashfaq
   Parvez Kayani, Chief of Army Staff, General David H Petreaus, Commander
   International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), and General Sher Muhammad
   Kirmi, Chief of General Staff of Afghan National Army headed the
   respective delegations.

   It said that the forum reviewed the security situation of the areas
   situated along Pak-Afghan Border. The participants showed satisfaction
   over the existing level of cooperation. Chief of Army Staff, General
   Ashfaq Parvez Kayani also met President of Islamic Republic of
   Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai and discussed matters of mutual inte rest.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The Nation Online in English -- Website
   of a conservative daily, part of the Nawa-i-Waqt publishing group.
   Circulation around 20,000; URL: http://www.nation.com.pk)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   34) Back to Top
   ROK Defense Chief Visits Afghanistan To Encourage Troops
   Updated version: upgrading precedence, rewording headline, and adjusting
   tags; By Kim Deok-hyun: "S. Korean Defense Chief Visits Afghanistan to
   Encourage Troops" - Yonhap
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 05:52:19 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semioffici al news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   35) Back to Top
   Afghan people want strong army, police before withdrawal of foreign forces
   - Hasht-e-Sobh
   Sunday July 11, 2010 15:28:26 GMT
   foreign forces

   Text of report by Qodratollah Jawed entitled "Premature withdrawal of
   foreign troops according to people's viewpoints" published by Afghan
   independent secular daily newspaper Hasht-e Sobh on 10 JulyNote: Based on
   the US government strategy announced by Barack Obama, US president, last
   year, the process of the withdrawal of US tr oops from Afghanistan will
   begin from 1 July next year.This issue has created some disagreement both
   in the USA and Afghanistan. In its latest incident, some US senators and
   some officials from the Afghan government have called the withdrawal of US
   troops from Afghanistan a mistake and said that this move will strengthen
   the Taleban and Al-Qa'idah.Fraidun Azhand - HeratHoma Azimi, a lecturer at
   Herat Education University: "Undoubtedly, no Afghan likes the foreign
   troops staying in their country but, for the time being, the presence of
   foreign forces is an important necessity. We still do not have enough
   capability to combat terrorism, ensure security and even defend our
   territorial integrity and besides that, terrorism has always targeted our
   country as a threat. The premature withdrawal of foreign forces from
   Afghanistan will create a dangerous challenge for all the efforts made by
   the international community to bring stability in Afghanistan. Terrorists
   will think tha t they will soon gain victory, even the warlords, who have
   kept silent because of the fear they have of the foreign forces, will
   think again to destabilize the country. Therefore, the withdrawal of
   foreign forces is necessary, but not for the time being."Jamshid Farahi, a
   worker in Herat new city: "Now that foreign troops think that they should
   withdraw from Afghanistan, it would be better if they strengthen the
   Afghan security forces. If foreign forces leave Afghanistan and the Afghan
   armed forces are also weak, the neighbouring countries, which have always
   wanted to destroy this country, will once again send their slaves to
   Afghanistan and we will go back the situation of 10 years ago. The
   international community should first see that we have the power to
   maintain power, and then they should think about withdrawal from
   Afghanistan."Hamidollah Sarwari, a Herat citizen: "With its all-sided
   presence and support from a democratic government and all the valu es
   which had been forgotten in this country, the international community has
   revived that. But despite all that these values such as freedom, human
   rights, democracy etc have not been institutionalized completely. With
   more power now, the opponents of these values are looking for an
   opportunity to make themselves dominate the Afghan people contrary to the
   people's wishes. The withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan at a
   time when Afghanistan does not have enough power is regarded as a big
   mistake, a mistake which will once again lead Afghanistan towards
   destruction."Zia Hosaini - GhazniMohammad Amin, a resident of Ghazni
   Province: "The beginning of the withdrawal of US forces in 2011 from
   Afghanistan shows that the Taleban have gained victory in their fight
   against all the countries, which have a military presence in Afghanistan.
   With this decision, the Taleban's morale will surely be boosted because
   they have apparently gained victory in the fight against th e
   international community. During the past nine years, the Afghan security
   forces have not reached the required capacity to defend the people and the
   country alone. This withdrawal is a kind of escape from the scene of
   combating terrorism."Abdol Satar, a shopkeeper in Ghazni city: "The
   premature withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan means capitulating to
   the Taleban's power. This is a kind of confession that the Taleban are
   stronger than the international community in Afghanistan. On the other
   hand, it will encourage the Taleban to prolong the war in Afghanistan.
   Most importantly, the consequences of the withdrawal of US troops from
   Afghanistan will be the beginning of destructive civil wars in Afghanistan
   from which, our people have suffered for more than three decades and they
   are concerned about this decision by American officials. The people are
   concerned that the situation will become like it was nine years
   ago."Habibollah , a teacher in one of the sch ools in Ghazni: "The
   decision by the US officials based on their withdrawal from Afghanistan
   indicates that the international community's struggle to eliminate
   terrorism, was a mistake and now the US forces do not want to repeat that
   mistake. On the other hand, this premature withdrawal indicates that the
   Taleban were not included in the list of terrorist groups. Therefore, US
   officials have decided to leave Afghanistan. But our people do not want US
   officials to leave Afghanistan until our people and our country find the
   ability to defend themselves as well as their country."Qodratollah Jawed -
   KabulObaidollah Zormati, a cashier in Kabul city: "I believe that foreign
   forces should leave Afghanistan as soon as possible. But before that, our
   National Army and National Police should be increased and heavy weapons
   such as tanks and war planes should be put at their disposal. Currently,
   the number of National Army forces is too little. Our neighbouring
   countries h elp the Taleban and the terrorists. The war is continuing. The
   Taleban have made most of the provinces in our country insecure. In my
   judgment, we will not be happy with the presence of foreign troops in our
   country when our country is secure. But in the current situation, foreign
   forces should stay in Afghanistan until our country becomes secure."Elyas
   Amiri, a student at Kabul University: "Foreign forces should leave our
   country. This is because during the past nine years that foreign forces
   are in Afghanistan, not only has the security situation in our country not
   improved, it has also deteriorated during recent years. I am doubtful
   about the activities of foreign troops. Why could they not eliminate the
   Taleban during the past nine years? I think if they stay in our country
   for more time and they do not gain any achievements, it would be better if
   they left our country very soon. The foreign troops say that they will
   leave Afghanistan after one year. I think th at if the foreign forces have
   come here to combat the Taleban and terrorism, this one year is also
   enough to eliminate them. If they want to remove our doubts, foreign
   troops should struggle against terrorists very seriously."Gholam Faruq, a
   salesman in Kabul, "Our security forces are not in a position to ensure
   security for the entire country. Several years of war and destruction have
   destroyed all our infrastructures and properties. We need foreign
   assistance. If foreign soldiers leave our country, factional fighting will
   start again. On the other hand, the Taleban will be strengthened. We
   should not let the Taleban dominate us again. Therefore, I think that
   until our National Army forces and our National Police forces get
   strengthened, the foreign forces should help people both in terms of
   military and in terms of economic affairs."Sayed Karim Jawed -
   BamianNajibollah, a shopkeeper in Bamian city: "The withdrawal of foreign
   forces from Afghanistan is n ot in favour of the Afghan people because, so
   far, neither has security been ensured nor have the Afghan security forces
   (army and police) been strengthened completely. Despite the presence of
   foreign forces, most of the provinces are insecure. If international
   forces leave Afghanistan, insecurity will further increase".Sayed Mohammad
   Mosawi, a teacher in Bamian: "If we had good security; the withdrawal of
   foreign forces would have been in favour of the Afghan people. But I think
   that until security is completely ensured, the presence of foreign forces
   is very necessary."Mohammad Ali, a resident of Bamian Province: "During
   the past several years, thousands of Afghans were killed by the Taleban so
   we should not waste this opportunity. If foreign forces leave Afghanistan
   in an untimely fashion, the security situation will deteriorate
   further."Sayed Samiollah Sayedi - NangarharBabrak Miakhel, a teacher at
   Nangarhar University: "In my own judgment, perhaps most Afghans will agree
   with me and they will go along with me that foreign forces should leave
   Afghanistan. This is because nobody wants foreign forces to stay in our
   country and if some people want them to stay, they are compelled to say
   so. But the main point is that if foreign forces, particularly US forces,
   want to leave Afghanistan before their withdrawal, they should strengthen
   our army, police and other security bodies so that they can ensure
   security in their country. If the Afghan security forces are not able to
   ensure security in the country and the foreign forces also leave this
   country, then Afghanistan will once again face a bad destiny and it will
   plunge into a very big catastrophe. So I hope that before the foreign
   forces leave Afghanistan, they will rebuild all our institutions. They
   should make our army, police and other security bodies in our country
   stand on their own feet and then they should withdraw from
   Afghanistan."Khalid Mandezi: " I think that the withdrawal of foreign
   forces from Afghanistan right now will take Afghanistan back to the 1990s.
   The current situation in Afghanistan is similar to the situation where the
   Taleban regime was on the verge of collapse. If foreign forces leave
   Afghanistan in the current situation where we do not have even one strong
   security body, then this country will plunge into a civil war again and
   questions will also be raised why the foreign forces stayed in our country
   for 10 years".Jamshid Radfar - BalkhAdib, a resident of Mazar-e- Sharif:
   "If the situation continues like this and there is the same government
   with the same performance, then the withdrawal of foreign forces from
   Afghanistan will be premature even after 10 years. This is because we are
   still not able to meet a very small requirement of our society and despite
   the pouring in of billions of dollars, the Afghan government has not been
   able to show signs of a sound governance, which could attract p eople's
   attention and confidence based on the government's independent strategies
   if foreign forces withdrawal from Afghanistan".Sohrab Aria, a resident of
   Mazar-e-Sharif: "If attention had been paid to the army and police forces
   over the past 10 years, they would be well-equipped. Today, we would have
   been able to ensure security in our country on our own and the best option
   would have been the withdrawal of foreign forces. Our army and police
   forces should be equipped and they should be professional. We hope that
   the Afghan government will pay keen attention to the army and police
   forces so that they can become self-sufficient and protect the identity of
   their country on their own."(Description of Source: Kabul Hasht-e-Sobh in
   Dari -- Eight-page secular daily launched in May 2007; editor-in-chief,
   Qasim Akhgar, is a political analyst and Head of the Association for the
   Freedom of Speech. )

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   36) Back to Top
   Afghan paper calls on USA to help clean up Kabul - Arman-e Melli
   Sunday July 11, 2010 10:51:47 GMT
   Text of editorial entitled "Symbolic works cannot solve Kabul's problems"
   published by independent Afghan newspaper Arman-e Melli website on 10
   JulyThe US ambassador to Afghanistan participated in a collective
   campaign, launched by many Kabul residents, to collect rubbish and clean
   the city. By collecting pieces of paper from a road, the US ambassador
   showed that he is interested in seeing a clean Kabul, devoid of
   rubbish.The symbolic gesture by the US ambassador is laudable. He appeared
   on TV cameras, say ing he is interested in seeing a clean Kabul and seeing
   the city get rid of the contaminated weather.However, the action by Mr
   Ambassador, who appeared on camera and collected some pieces of paper
   along with a number of others, will not tackle the problem of garbage and
   Kabul's contaminated weather.Kabul, where millions of dollars are spent by
   the international community in the name of a reconstruction programme, is
   the filthiest city. However, necessary attention has not yet been paid to
   Kabul as piles of rubbish are seen in and around the city.The Kabul
   municipality cannot resolve the problems with its own means. The
   municipality's officials have always been vocal regarding shortages of
   possibilities and means.Taking the matter into consideration, it would be
   better if the US ambassador made specific suggestions to the US
   departments concerned with regard to the contaminated weather and
   collection of rubbish from Kabul and convinced them to help the Kabul
   municipality on t his important issue and solve the municipality's
   problem. In fact, symbolic actions will not solve the problems of Kabul
   city. There is a need to take serious and practical steps in this
   regard.(Description of Source: Kabul Arman-e Melli in Dari )

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   37) Back to Top
   ROK Editorial Urges Japan To Put Apology Into Action
   Editorial: "Centenary of Annexation" - The Korea Times Online
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 10:35:35 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul The Korea Times Online in English -- Website
   of The Korea Times, an independent and moderate English-languag e daily
   published by its sister daily Hanguk Ilbo from which it often draws
   articles and translates into English for publication; URL:
   http://www.koreatimes.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   38) Back to Top
   Afghan daily urges unity within international community on war strategy -
   Weesa
   Sunday July 11, 2010 10:51:46 GMT
   strategy

   Text of editorial entitled "Afghanistan is quagmire for international
   community" published by pro-government Afghan newspaper Weesa on 8
   JulySenior American officials can no longer hide their differences over
   Afghan strategy. These differences res ulted in the removal of a general
   (McChrystal) from his position. It is clear that the removal of that
   general has disappointed one group. However, the differences over strategy
   and Afghanistan's problems have not been resolved yet. There is a strong
   possibility that fighting will intensify for some time in Afghanistan. The
   new chief commander of NATO and American forces has openly announced that
   he will avoid civilian casualties, but not at the cost of jeopardizing the
   life of their soldiers. According to Gen Petraeus, they will use all types
   of arms and resources in war to avoid casualties on the part of their
   soldiers. This is an open change in strategy that will increase civilian
   casualties.The opposition side has its own justifications (Pashto:
   Estedlal) for this strategy. Senior Afghan officials have been promised at
   official meetings that (the international community) will continue
   supporting Afghanistan. However, it is ignoring the demands and needs of
   the Afghan peo ple. This strategy will produce extremely devastating and
   dangerous consequences. The Afghan nation will never bow to anyone, no
   matter how many Afghans are killed. On the contrary, the continuation of
   civilian casualties incites people to stand against the international
   forces. The new chief commander of American and NATO forces was appointed
   and assumed his mission a few days ago. A number of civilians and national
   army soldiers were killed in bombing raids over these days.The series of
   mistakes that Gen McChrystal tried to prevent has resumed with the arrival
   of the new commander. Gen McChrystal prevented such mistakes to a great
   extent. Anyhow, America will definitely witness a reaction to the strategy
   it is pursuing in Afghanistan. The differences between America and other
   sides of the international community over the Afghan war is a sign of lack
   of unity, coordination and agreement between them on a common strategy. In
   general, this has created doubts, threats and prob lems to the present
   mission of the international community in Afghanistan. America and the
   international community should also realize that there are many small and
   major groups and forces in the region which are exploiting such
   shortcomings. These differences help them achieve their goals. Time will
   tell how they exploit the differences between different sides of the
   international community.(Description of Source: Kabul Weesa in Pashto --
   pro-government daily launched in early 2006; supports reconciliation with
   the Taliban and Hekmatyar's groups.)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   39) Back to Top
   Palestinian Reports on Socioeconomic Projects 30 Jul - 6 Aug 10
   The following lists highlights of reports on socioeconomic projects
   carried in the Palestinian press between 31 July and 6 Aug. To request
   additional processing, or for assistance with multimedia elements, call
   OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735. - West Bank
   &amp;amp; Gaza Strip -- OSC Summary
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 05:29:07 GMT
   http://www.wafa.ps/ http://www.wafa.ps ) Ramallah: Jerusalem Open
   University, 'GTZ,' Sign Cooperation Agreement in Training Field

   - On 4 Aug, a report says that Jerusalem Open University and the German
   Technical Cooperation Foundation 'GTZ' have signed a cooperation agreement
   in the field of training on ORACLE database management for a group of the
   Ministry of Interior's personnel. The report adds that this training
   course is expected to start after the holy month of Ramadan Arish: Libyan
   Aid Arrives at Al-Arish On Way to Gaza

   - On 3 Aug; a report says that the Libyan aid convoy 'Al-Quds1' has
   arrived in Al-Arish town in Egypt on its way to the Gaza Strip in an
   attempt to break the blockade imposed against the strip since 2007. The
   report adds that the convoy is comprised of 20 trucks loaded with
   `approximately 1000 tons of medicine and medical supplies, milk, juices,
   mineral water, foodstuff, clothes and other items. The report further adds
   that 64 persons, 3 of whom are doctors in various specialties, are coming
   with the convoy to carry out surgeries at Gaza hospitals. Ramallah: EU
   Issues New Payment for Civil Servant Salaries, Pension Fund

   - On 5 Aug, a report says that the EU is going to issue today its 8th
   contribution to the salaries and pensions of more than 81000 civil
   servants and retired personnel in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The report
   goes on to cite the EU as noting in a press statement that this month's
   contribution which is issued through PIGAS Mechanism amounts to 14 million
   Euros. The report adds that the funding is part of an aid bundle totaling
   158 million Euros from the European Commission for 2010 in addition to
   assistance from the Swedish Government totaling 50 million Kroner.
   Nabulus: Governor Delivers President Abbas Donation to Students

   - On 3 Aug, a report says that the Governor of Nabulus Governorate Jibrin
   al-Bakri has delivered President Abbas' donation to the students who
   scored the highest marks in the high school examinations in the
   governorate. The report adds that this came in a ceremony organized by the
   governorate under President Abbas' auspices. Ramallah: Economy Minister
   Announces Consumer Protection Measures in Ramadan

   - on 3 Aug, a report cites the Minister of National Economy Dr Hasan
   Abu-Libdah as announcing that the ministry has created a list comprised of
   the names of 42 items to monitor their prices during the holy month of
   Ramadan in order to ensure maximum consumer protection and fairness of
   prices. He adde d that the Ministry will increase the number of personnel
   in the consumer protection department to 200 employees and they will be
   divided into two shifts to work around the clock to prevent monopoly,
   exploitation of consumers, and marketing of settlement products. Umm
   al-Fahm: For First Time: Exhibition Opened for Palestinian Products in
   1948 Lands

   - On 3 Aug, a report says that the first exhibition of Arab products in
   1948 lands has been opened under the emblem 'Made at Home'. The report
   goes on to say that the is organized by Immar Association for Development
   and Economic Promotion with participation of the biggest companies and
   Arab enterprises that produce and manufacture goods inside the Palestinian
   territories. The exhibition was held at Al-Waha Park in Umm al-Fahm town.
   Al-Hayat Al-Jadidah Al-Birah: Education Ministry, USAID Opens 2 nd
   Educational Forum

   - on 5 Aug, a report says that that the Ministry of Higher Education has
   opened the 2nd educational f orum under the title: "Educational
   Communities. Models for School Development in Palestine" with funding by
   the USAID and support by the AMIDST. The report cites the Director of
   Education Division in the USAID Karen Axel as saying that this forum is
   organized for the development of schools in Palestine, supporting the
   school facilities, and to develop the education sector so that it can cope
   with modern education requirements (Internet Version-WWW in Arabic -- PA
   owned daily, supportive of the Presidency, URL:

   http://www.alhayat-j.com/ http://www.alhayat-j.com ).

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   40) Back to Top
   Iraqi Kurdish Arabic Press 10 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from two Baghdad-based Kurdish
   newspapers on 10 Aug. To request additional processing, please call OSC at
   (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735, or fax (703) 613-5735. - Iraq -- OSC
   Summary
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 18:36:40 GMT
   http://www.alittihad.com/ http://www.alittihad.com )

   --Al-Ittihad 2,000-word report citing Al-Iraqiyah List member Shakir Kitab
   as saying that during his recent meeting with Kurdistan Region President
   Mas'ud Barzani, Premir Al-Maliki failed to achieve a rapprochement with
   the Kurds. He added that the visit can be described as unsuccessful.
   Meanwhile, Al-Tawafuq Front member Salim Abddallah said that the Kurds are
   closely associated with the National Alliance, and that the next
   government would bring together the Kurdistan Blocs Coalition and the
   National Alliance. As for the Al-Iraqiyah List, it has to resign itself to
   this reality, he maintai ned. INA member Baha al-A'raji said that the INA
   will forge an alliance with the Al-Iraqiyah List and the Kurdistan Blocs
   Coalition if the SLC's position regarding the post of prime minister
   remains unchanged. He added: The INA is about to forge an alliance with
   the Al-Iraqiyah List and the Kurdistan Blocs Coalition. SLC member Kamal
   al-Sa'idi said that Al-Maliki's visit to Arbil laid bare the claims made
   by some political forces to the effect that the Kurds are opposed to a
   second term in office for incumbent Premier Al-Maliki. He added that the
   Kurdistan Blocs Coalition is not opposed to a second term in office for
   Al-Maliki. For his part, Sami Shorish, member of the Kurdish negotiating
   team, said that forging an alliance with the other Iraqi political blocs
   is contingent upon their approval of the 16-point program submitted by the
   Kurdistan Blocs Coalition's delegation.

   --Al-Ta'akhi 250-word report citing SLC Spokesman Hachim al-Hasani as
   saying that there is a gre at convergence of views between the SLC and
   Kurdish parties, which prompts a further enhancement of ties between the
   two sides. Al-Hasani was commenting on Premier Al-Maliki's recent visit to
   Arbil, where he met with Kurdistan Region President Mas'ud Barzani.
   (Description of source: Baghdad Al-Ta'akhi Online in Arabic - Website of
   Al-Ta'akhi, daily newspaper published b y the Iraqi Kurdistan Democratic
   Party, KDP; URL:

   http://taakhinews.org/ http://taakhinews.org )

   --Al-Ta'akhi 130-word report citing INA member Muhammad al-Bayyati as
   saying that the INA will not be part of a government that does not meet
   the requirements of success.

   --Al-Ta'akhi 400-word report citing Salih al-Mutlaq, key leader of the
   Al-Iraqiyah List, as saying that the talks are continuing with the SLC on
   several issues pertaining to the Political Council for National Security,
   such as the armed forces General Command, and whether it will be
   associated with the Political Council or th e Prime Ministry. He added
   that the Al-Iraqiyah List seeks to expand the powers of the Political
   Council for National Security.

   --Al-Ta'akhi 130-word report citing Dara Muhammad, member of the Kurdistan
   Blocs Coalition, as saying that the Kurdish negotiating team will begin
   its official talks with the Iraqi political blocs in Baghdad today. He
   added: The talks will be held with SLC leader Al-Maliki, Al-Iraqiyah List
   leader Iyad Allawi, and INA leader Ammar al-Hakim. The Kurdistan Blocs
   Coalition will submit a 20-point working paper to the aforesaid three
   blocs, and the talks will address these points.

   --Al-Ta'akhi 120-word report citing Kurdistan Alliance member Muhsin
   Sa'dun as predicting that the political blocs will achieve an agreement on
   a distribution of the top posts next week. He added: International and
   domestic pressure as well as the security deterioration in the country
   will push the political blocs to achieve this agreement next week. The
   recent vi sits to the Kurdistan Region by Premier Al-Maliki and
   Al-Iraqiyah List leader Iyad Allawi helped achieve a convergence of views
   between the SLC and the Al-Iraqiyah List on the distribution of top posts.
   If the political blocs fail to achieve an agreement on the top posts next
   week, the parliament should pass a resolution on conducting a repeat
   election.

   --Al-Ta'akhi 150-word report citing an informed source as saying that a
   heated debate took place at the latest meeting held by the Islamic Da'wah
   Party (IDP) between those insisting that Al-Maliki should retain his
   candidacy for the post of prime minister and Ali al-Adib, key IDP leader,
   who asked for replacing Al-Maliki with another candidate for the post.
   Political sources disclosed to media outlets a few days ago that Husayn
   al-Shahristani, oil minister and key SLC leader, and some members of his
   Independents List are planning to break away from the SLC and hold a
   dialogue with the INA. Miscellaneous Reports

   --Al-Ittihad 200-word report citing Planning Minister Ali Baban as saying
   that his ministry is proceeding with its plans to conduct a population
   census on schedule regardless of whether or not the new government is
   formed.

   --Al-Ittihad 150-word report saying that several civil society
   organizations filed a lawsuit with the Federal Court over the parliament's
   failure to perform its functions and duties.

   --Al-Ta'akhi 300-word report citing Yunadim Kanna, leader of the Iraqi
   al-Rafidayn Bloc, a Christian political entity, as saying that the
   countries that encourage Iraqi Christians to immigrate are committing a
   crime against them. Kurdistan Region Developments

   --Al-Ittihad 450-word report citing Kurdistan Region President Mas'ud
   Barzani, in a telephone conversation he had with US Vice President Joe
   Biden, as stressing the need for forming a real partnership government in
   Iraq. Barzani met with UK Ambassador to Iraq John Jenkins and Jeremy
   Macadie, UK consul general to the Kurdistan Region, yesterday.

   --Al-Ittihad 140-word report citing Ahmad Qadir, top commissioner of the
   Sidakan Subdistrict, an affiliate of the Choman District in the Arbil
   Governorate, as saying that the residents of 114 villages fled their homes
   as a result of the ongoing artillery shelling by Iranian and Turkish
   troops.

   --Al-Ta'akhi 100-word report on a telephone conversation held between
   Kurdistan Region President Mas'ud Barzani and US Vice President Joe Biden.
   Barzani affirmed that the Kurds are playing an effective role to expedite
   the formation of the new government.

   --Al-Ta'akhi 350-word report citing an interview Kurdistan Region Premier
   Barham Salih granted to the London-based Al-Sharq al-Awsat newspaper in
   which he described Premier Al-Maliki's recent talks with Kurdistan Region
   President Mas'ud Barzani in Arbil as important. Press Commentaries

   --In a 450-word editorial in Al-Ittihad, Deputy Chief Editor Abd-al-Hadi
   Mahdi says: Following the UN Security Council (UNSC) deliberations on the
   report submitted by the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq
   (UNAMI), which listed the positive and negative aspects in Iraq, and the
   recommendations that these deliberations elicited, it is noteworthy that
   no official Iraqi statement was issued either supporting or denying the
   contents of the report as if the report had nothing to do with Iraq.
   However, the report blames Iraq for certain things, especially on issues
   related to Kuwait, which makes the effort to remove Iraq from the mandate
   of Chapter VII of the UN Charter a difficult undertaking. This is
   indicative of the failure of Iraqi diplomacy. The paragraph on Kuwait
   should have elicited an official Iraqi statement to explain the situation
   and disclose the facts to the public. Parts of the UNAMI report addressed
   the security situation. It is unfortunate that some politicians only saw
   the parts of the report that address the ongoing political cri sis. The
   government's failure to respond to the UNAMI report might have been caused
   by preoccupation with the ongoing political crisis, or the incumbent
   government might have been convinced that its mandate has expired, and so,
   it does not have to respond and take responsibility for what is enshrined
   in the report. Iraqi political forces highlight the UNAMI reports when
   they are favorable, and they question them when they find them
   unfavorable. And the proof of this is that the political entities
   continued to highlight the UNAMI statements which commended the conduct of
   the elections. The UNAMI report was comprehensive. A serious effort should
   be made to examine the report and draw the necessary conclusions to remedy
   the ailments highlighted by the report. The question is: If the UNAMI's
   work is called into question, why then did Iraq ask for extending its
   mandate on Iraqi territory for one more year?

   --In a 750-word article in Al-Ittihad, Sati Raji says: The message that US
   President Obama allegedly sent to Grand Ayatollah Al-Sistani shows that
   the US Administration has exhausted all possible means to reconcile the
   various Iraqi political forces and push them toward a solution to the
   ongoing standoff over the formation of the new government. That is why he
   resorted to Al-Sistani in the hope that the latter might be able to push
   Iraqi political forces, particularly Islamist parties, toward a solution
   to the crisis. Since 2003, the religious authority has repeatedly
   contributed to reconciling the various Iraqi political forces. But, things
   are now different. For the political forces do not nowadays seek the
   guidance of the religious authority, and they do not easily accept the
   religious authority's pressure. The Obama administration is apparently
   rummaging through the Iraq files of the Bush administration to find clues
   to Iraqi domestic politics. That is why it named Ambassador James Jeffrey,
   who managed the Iraqi file during the Bush adm inistration years, as its
   new ambassador to Iraq. That is also why it once again recalled the clout
   of the religious authority. But, what the Obama administration has
   forgotten is that the Iraq of 2010 is different from the Iraq of 2003,
   when the political process was in its beginnings, and when Islamist Shiite
   parties were operating under the mantle of the religious authority. As for
   the Iraq of today, it is completely different, for Iraq is now gearing up
   for the withdrawal of US troops, and Iraqi politicians have relished power
   and political office. As a result, they are demonstrating political
   intransigence. Those knowledgeable about the affairs of the religious
   authority have said that Obama's message will only compound the situation
   because the religious authority does not need any prodding to work to
   reconcile the various Iraqi political forces. But any greater pressure by
   the religious authority from now on will be seen as a response to the US
   request, which is rejec ted by clerics in Iraq, let alone the religious
   authority. For nobody wants to be accused of being a US stooge.

   --In a 1,200-word article in Al-Ittihad, Husayn Ali al-Hamdani says: The
   UNAMI report discussed by the UNSC on 4 August shows that Iraq is moving
   in the right direction on many fronts, including the security front. For
   it highlighted the repatriation of many internally displaced persons and
   refugees and commended the development plans implemented in Iraq. The
   report was not completely negative, as it contained many positive aspects.
   Besides, it commended the elections and urged Iraqi political leaders to
   make greater efforts to expedite the formation of the new government.
   Average Iraqis awaited the UNSC session held on 4 August, especially since
   31 August is the deadline for completing the withdrawal of US combat
   troops from Iraq. Many people, including officials, have fears that
   terrorist elements and sleeper cells might seize the opportunity offered
   by th is US troop pullout to carry out terrorist attacks here and there to
   achieve purely media purposes. Iraq is in a race against time to solve
   constitutional and other problems. Hence, the formation of the new Iraqi
   government has become a pressing need.

   --In a 600-word article in Al-Ta'akhi, Mahdi al-Ghazzi says: The ongoing
   standoff over the formation of the new government has shown the true
   colors of some political forces. Hence, politicians must reconsider their
   calculations to see how close to the people they are. The ongoing crisis
   has laid bare the impotence of Iraqi politicians. The crisis has shown
   their selfishness. This impotence has only compounded the situation, and
   it will open the door for foreign intervention. The question is: What are
   the national forces, the religious authorities, and the masses required to
   do to end this crisis? The aforesaid parties are definitely capable of
   ending this political stalemate. The religious authority is now required
   to p ut pressure on politicians, because the masses are fed up with what
   is happening in the political arena. They are awaiting a move or a call
   from the religious authority or the national forces--a move that expresses
   dissatisfaction with what is going on. We hope that the religious
   authority or the national forces will act on this issue, because their
   actions will be restrained, fruitful, and useful to the political process.

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   41) Back to Top
   Iraqi Press 10 August 10
   The following lists selected items from the Iraqi press on 10 August. To
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735. - Iraq - - OSC Summary
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 16:11:21 GMT
   following issues: I. CONTACTS TO FORM NEW COALITIONS

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on the front page and on page 2 a 1,000-word
   report on outgoing Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's recent meeting with
   Kurdish President Mas'ud Barzani and other Kurdish leaders in Arbil, which
   was devoted to discussing the formation of the new government. The report
   cites Kurdish Presidential Office Chairman Dr Fu'ad Husayn as outlining
   the Kurdish leadership's four conditions for the alliance that will form
   the new government. The report cites senior Al-Iraqiyah List Leader Salih
   al-Mutlaq as saying that the list insists on its constitutional right to
   form the new government despite the US support for Al-Maliki.

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on the front page a 760-word report citing Ali
   al-Allaq, senior State of Law Coalition leader, as saying that the
   coalition insists on the nomination of outgoing Prime Minister Nuri
   al-Maliki for a second term. The report cites Baha al-A'raji, senior State
   of Law Coalition leader, as saying that if the State of Law Coalition does
   not nominate another candidate for the next prime minister's post by
   today, 10 August, the alliance will enter into alliance with the
   Al-Iraqiyah List to form the new government. The report cites Al-Iraqiyah
   List Spokesman Haydar al-Mulla, as doubting the seriousness of the
   coalition and alliance to cooperate with the list.

   Al-Mu'tamar publishes on the front page a 400-word report citing US Forces
   Commander General Odierno as predicting the formation of the new
   government before 1 September.

   Al-Mashriq publishes on the front page a 600-word report citing senior
   Kurdistan Coalition Leader Mahmud Uthman yesterday, 9 August, as saying
   that outgoing Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki did not give written assurance
   pertaining to the implementation of A rticle 140 of the Constitution to
   the Kurdish leadership. Uthman says that the coalition will support
   Al-Maliki's nomination for a second term if the negotiations with the
   State of Law Coalition reach a satisfactory agreement.

   Al-Alam publishes on the front page and on page 2 a 1,300-word report
   citing Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi, during an interview that will be
   published tomorrow, 11 August, as affirming that the Al-Iraqiyah List
   rejects the nomination of outgoing Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki for a
   second term because he broke his promises to the political forces one week
   after assuming his office in 2006.

   Al-Muwatin on 9 August publishes on the front page a 410-word report
   citing Muhammad al-Bayyati, member of the Iraqi National Alliance, as
   strongly criticizing the talks that are being held by the political blocs
   for concentrating on the issue of the distribution of the senior posts
   only without discussing the government's program. Al-Bayyati added tha t
   the delay in the formation of the next government is negatively affecting
   the services sector and the security situation in the country. The report
   also cites Jum'ah al-Atwani, member of the alliance, as saying that the
   United States is seeking to deprive the alliance of its right to
   participate in the next Iraqi Government.

   Al-Muwatin on 9 August publishes on the front page a 150-word report
   citing Sami Shurash, member of the Kurdistan Coalition, as saying that the
   coalition will hold negotiations with the other political blocs on the
   issue of the formation of the next government with the aim of reaching a
   consensus to contain the current political crisis.

   Al-Da'wah on 9 August publishes on the front page a 240- word report
   citing a well-informed source in the Al-Najaf Governorate as saying that
   Husayn al-Shahristani and Khalid al-Atiyah, members of the State of Law
   Coalition, met with Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali al-Sistani in the
   governorate and discussed wi th him a number of issues, including the
   crisis over the formation of the next government.

   Al-Da'wah on 9 August publishes on the front page a 180-word report citing
   Kamal al-Sa'idi, member of the State of Law Coalition, as saying that the
   State of Law Coalition will not leave the National Coalition, and
   affirming that the next prime minister will be chosen from the National
   Coalition.

   Al-Da'wah on 9 August publishes on the front page a 340-word report citing
   Ali al-Shalah, member of the State of Law Coalition, as strongly
   criticizing the statements a number of members of the Al-Iraqiyah List
   made in which they attacked the coalition.

   Al-Adalah publishes on the front page a 420-word report saying that Vice
   President Adil Abd-al-Mahdi and a delegation representing the Al-Sadr
   Trend led by Karrar al-Khafaji, chairman of the Al-Sadr Trend's Political
   Commission, held a meeting during which they discussed the latest
   political developments in the Iraqi politi cal arena, including the
   efforts that are being exerted to form the next government and the
   deterioration of the security situation in the country. The report also
   cites Baha al-A'raji, parliament member for the Iraqi National Alliance,
   as saying that the alliance will ally with the Al-Iraqiyah List to form
   the next government if the State of Law Coalition insists on nominating
   Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki for a second term. Al-A'raji added that the
   list gave concessions during the talks with the alliance. He said that the
   alliance insists on choosing the next prime minister from the alliance.
   The report also cites Muhsin al-Sa'dun, member of the Kurdistan Coalition,
   as calling for forming the Presidential Commission of the Iraqi Parliament
   if the political blocs fail to settle the issue of the formation of the
   next government this week.

   Al-Adalah publishes on the front page a 125-word report on the statement
   the Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council issued saying that Ammar al-Hakim,
   chairman of the council, and Bahraini King Hamad Bin Isa Al Khalifah,
   during a telephone conversation, discussed the latest political
   developments in Iraq, including the formation of the next government and
   ways of promoting bilateral relations between the two countries in all
   fields. The report adds that Al Khalifah invited Al-Hakim to visit
   Bahrain.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 3 a 100-word report citing Furat al-Shar,
   member of the Iraqi National Alliance from the Iraqi Islamic Supreme
   Council from the Basra Governorate, as calling on the political blocs that
   insist on assuming the senior posts to give concessions for the sake of
   the interests of Iraq. (OSC plans no further processing)

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 3 a 100-word report saying that Vice President
   Adil Abd-al-Mahdi and the deputy chief of mission the US Embassy in
   Baghdad held a meeting at Abd-al-Mahdi's office in Baghdad during which
   they discussed the latest political developments in the Iraqi political
   arena, including the ongoing efforts by the political blocs to form the
   next government and ways of promoting bilateral relations in all fields.
   (OSC plans no further processing)

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 3 a 100-word follow-up report citing Hanin
   al-Qaddaw, secretary general of the Al-Shabak Democratic Grouping, as
   saying that the legislative elections might be re-held if the political
   blocs fail to settle their disputes over the issue of the formation of the
   next government. (OSC plans no further processing)

   Al-Sabah publishes on the front page a 400-word report citing sources from
   the Al-Iraqiyah List as saying that Nuri al-Maliki, prime minister and
   chairman of the State of Law Coalition, and Iyad Allawi, chairman of the
   list, held a meeting last Friday during which they discussed the crisis
   over the formation of the next government. The sources added that the two
   blocs exchanged letters on this issue.

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 3 a 950-word report on the ongoing talks
   between the political parties on the issue of the formation of the next
   government. The report adds that Kurdish President M as'ud Barzani met
   with the British ambassador to Iraq and discussed with him the latest
   political developments in Iraq and ways of quickly forming the next
   government. The report also cites Ali al-Allaq, member of the State of Law
   Coalition, as saying that the coalition has no intention to replace Prime
   Minister Nuri al-Maliki for the next prime minister's post. The report
   also cites Ali al-Dabbagh, member of the State of Law Coalition, as
   denying that the next government would be formed before the holy month of
   Ramadan.

   Al-Zaman publishes on the front page a 300-word report citing Hamid
   Mu'allah, leader in the Iraqi National Alliance, as saying that the
   alliance gave the State of Law Coalition a deadline to change their
   candidate for the post of the prime minister and that the alliance will
   start talks today with the Al-Iraqiyah List and Kurdistan Coalition on
   forming the next government. The report cites Baha al-A'raji, leader in
   the Al-Sadr Trend, as saying that the concessions and flexibility the
   Al-Iraqiyah List has given have led to a major progress in the
   negotiations on the formation of the next government.

   Al-Zaman publishes on the front page a 100-word report saying that a
   number of female activists from civil society organizations staged a
   demonstration outside the parliament building during which they called for
   holding parliamentary sessions to speed up the formation of the next
   government.

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 2 a 400-word report citing Salih al-Mutlaq,
   leader in the Al-Iraqiyah List, as saying that a candidate for the State
   of Law Coalition will get the post of the chairman of the Political
   Council for National Security because the list insists on getting the post
   of the prime minister in spite of the US support for Nuri al-Maliki.

   Al-Mada publishes on the front page a 300-word report citing Shwan
   Muhammad Taha, leader in the Kurdistan Coalition, as saying that Kurdish
   President Mas'ud Barzani informed Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki that only
   the delegation of the Kurdish factions in Baghdad has the right to
   negotiate on the formation of the next government and that the Kurds will
   coalesce with the factions that respond to their demands.

   Al-Mada publishes on page 2 a 500-word report entitled "Deputies Tell
   Al-Mada: Delay in Formation of Next Government Will Aggravate Services,
   Security Problems."

   Al-Mada publishes on page 2 a 200-word report saying that a number of
   civil society organizations have filed a lawsuit against the parliament
   because of its failure to solve the crisis of forming the government.

   Baghdad on 9 August publishes on the front page citing Usamah al-Nujayfi,
   leader in the Al-Iraqiyah List, as saying that the list might either form
   the next government or withdraw from the entire political process.

   Al-Bayyinah on 9 August publishes on the front page a 400-word report
   saying that the United States has suggested giving the post of the prime
   minister to Nuri al-Maliki while Al-Iraqiyah List would hold the posts of
   the parliament speaker and the chairman of the Political Council for
   National Security.

   Al-Bayyinah on 9 August publishes on page 2 a 300-word report citing
   Muhammad al-Bayyati, leader in the Iraqi National Alliance, as saying that
   the United States wants only the State of Law Coalition and Al-Iraqiyah
   List to form the next government.

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 9 August publishes on page 2 a 100-word report
   citing Mahmud Uthman, leader in the Kurdistan Coalition, as saying that
   the political factions need to hold a parliamentary session to settle the
   issue of the three presidencies as soon as possible. II. REACTIONS TO
   MERGER BETWEEN STATE OF LAW COALITION AND IRAQI NATIONAL ALLIANCE

   Al-Mu't amar publishes on the front page a 120-word report citing Ali
   Shakir Shubbar, parliament member for the Iraqi National Alliance, as
   saying that the alliance is still committed to the Ir aqi National
   Coalition, and urging the State of Law Coalition to nominate another
   candidate for the next prime minister's post.

   Al-Mu'tamar publishes on the front page a 230-word report citing
   Abd-al-Hadi al-Hasani, senior State of Law Coalition leader, as saying
   that that the Iraqi National Coalition is a strategic coalition and will
   not split.

   Al-Alam publishes on page 2 a 1,000-word report citing Khayrallah
   al-Basri, senior State of Law Coalition leader, yesterday, 9 August, as
   expressing regret over the recent exchange of accusations between the
   coalition and Iraqi National Alliance. The report cites an Iraqi National
   Alliance source, who requested anonymity, as holding outgoing Prime
   Minister Nuri al-Maliki responsible for the recent escalation and saying
   that Vice Presiden t Adil Abd-al-Mahdi was forced to respond to
   Al-Maliki's recent statements. IV.PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

   Al-Bayan on 9 August publishes on the front page a 130-word report citing
   a source at the Independent High Electoral Commission as saying that the
   commission will start paying the salaries of the employees who worked for
   the commission during the legislative elections that were held on 7 March.
   V. POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS AND COMMENTS

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on the front page and on page 2 a 1,400-word
   report by Muhammad Hayyawi citing western observers as saying that the
   Kurdish leaders are more concerned about the concessions that the next
   prime minister would offer pertaining to the issues of Kirkuk and the
   export of oil from Kurdistan than who the next prime minister would be.
   The report says that despite the US pressure, Al-Iraqiyah Leader Iyad
   Allawi cannot ignore his Sunni allies who insist on the list's right to
   form the new government. The report sa ys that both the Al-Sadr Trend and
   Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council, IISC, reject the nomination of outgoing
   Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki for a second term. The report says that US
   President Obama's recent letter to Grand Religious Authority Ali
   al-Sistani urging him to intervene to resolve the current political crisis
   over the formation of the new government as the only solution to the
   current crisis in the country.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 2 a 760-word report by Ali al-Tayyar
   discussing the implications of US President Obama's recent decision to
   withdraw the US forces from Iraq. The report cites retired US Colonel
   Garry Anderson as predicting that a civil war would break out between the
   Shiite groups in southern Iraq and that the Kurdish leaders would announce
   an independent state in Kurdistan.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 5 a 360-word report citing Kurdish
   Premier Barham Salih as praising the results of outgoing Prime Minister
   Nuri al-Maliki' s recent meeting with Kurdish President Mas'ud Barzani in
   Arbil.

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on the front page a 700-word report entitled
   "United Nations: Slow Progress in Development in Iraq; Economists Doubt
   Success of Five-Year development Plan, Affirm: Iraq Lacks Plan for
   Development of Industrial Sector."

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 3 a 900-word report on the sit-in protest
   the Iraqi Democratic Trend Forces Coordination Committee in Britain staged
   outside the Iraqi Embassy in London on 6 August, to protest the delay in
   the formation of the new government.

   Al-Mu'tamar publishes on the front page a 200-word report on the statement
   Vice President Adil Abd-al-Mahdi issued condemning the recent terrorist
   bombings in the Basra Governorate.

   Al-Mu'tamar publishes on the front page a 300-word report citing an
   official source at the Trade Ministry as urging the rationed food agents
   to receive the holy month of Ramadan's rationed food quotas .

   Al-Mashriq publishes on the front page a 500-word editorial by Dr Hamid
   Abdallah saying that US President Obama is going to withdraw the US forces
   from Iraq while neglectin g the dangerous consequences of the political
   and security vacuum in the country.

   Al-Mashriq publishes on page 2 a 700-word report by Wadi Awwadah citing
   Israeli observers as expressing concern over the implications of the
   withdrawal of the US troops from Iraq on the Middle East region.

   Al-Alam publishes on the front page a 300-word report citing Awad Haydar
   Bur, member of the Iranian Shura Council's National Security Committee, as
   affirming that the council is preparing a bill obliging the Iranian
   Government to follow-up the issue of war reparations from Iraq.

   Al-Alam publishes on the front page and on page 3 a 1,100-word report
   citing The Washington Post Newspaper as quoting a high-ranking US Army
   officer affirming that the Al-Qa'ida Organization is financing its
   operations in Iraq by kidnapping and extortion.

   Al-Istiqamah on 9 August publishes on the front page a 300-word editorial
   commenting on the deterioration of the security situation in Iraq as a
   result of the delay in the formation of the next government.

   Al-Da'wah on 9 August publishes on the front page a 300-word report citing
   Husayn al-Asadi, parliament member for the State of Law Coalition, as
   calling for releasing Iraq from the mandate of UN Security Council's
   Chapter Seven.

   Al-Zaman publishes on the front page a 100-word report saying that Prime
   Minister Nuri al-Maliki held a meeting with Egyptian Oil Ministry
   Undersecretary Abd-al-Alim Taha and the delegation accompanying him. The
   report adds that they discussed the bilateral relations between the two
   countries and the role the Egyptian companies can play in the
   reconstruction of Iraq.

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 2 a 120-word report citing Ziyad Tariq Aziz as
   saying that the health of his father, who wa s a leader in the former
   Iraqi regime, is rapidly deteriorating and that he is unable to walk any
   more.

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 17 a 100-word report saying that new Iraqi
   Ambassador to Sweden Husayn Mahdi al-Amiri presented a copy of his
   credentials to the director of the Protocols Directorate in Sweden. The
   report adds that the two sides discussed bilateral relations between the
   two countries and the available investment opportunities to the Swedish
   companies.

   Al-Mada publishes on the front page a 200-word report citing Muhsin
   al-Sa'dun, leader in the Kurdistan Coalition, as calling for choosing a
   parliament speaker even if the political factions fail in settling the
   issue of the government this week.

   Al-Mada publishes on page 3 a 400-word report entitled "Civil Society
   Organizations Representatives Complain of Marginalization of their Role in
   Political Decision Making Process."

   Al-Bayyinah on 9 August devotes all of pages 4 and 5 to an interview with
   Vice President Adil Abd-al-Mahdi. VI. SECURITY AND MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 5 a 500-word report citing a Kurdish
   source as affirming the arrest of three people, who are suspected of
   responsibility for the fire that broke out in the forest near the Zawitah
   Tourism Resort.

   Al-Alam publishes on the front page and on page 3 a 1,000-word report
   citing a traffic police officer, who requested anonymity, as saying that
   the traffic police patrols have been provided with guns in the wake of the
   recent attacks that targeted a number of traffic police officers and
   wardens in Baghdad.

   Al-Istiqamah on 9 August publishes on page 2 a 450-word report citing an
   official source at the Basra Health Department as saying that 43 citizens
   were killed and 185 others were injured as a final toll for the recent
   terrorist attacks that targeted the Al-Ashar Market in the governorate.
   The report also cites a security source in the Al-Anbar Governorate as
   saying that 13 persons were killed and 27 others were injured in the
   explosion of a boobytrapped car in the Al-Ramadi City.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 2 a 300-word report on the statement the Trade
   Ministry issued denying that a fire had broken out at the ministry's depot
   in the Al-Tubji Neighborhood in the capital.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 3 a 640-word report by the editor saying that
   Maysan Criminal Court Judge Haydar Hannun escaped an assassination attempt
   in the explosion of a sticky explosive device that was planted in his car.
   The report also cites a media source as saying that the districts and
   sub-districts police forces in the Kirkuk Governorate, in cooperation with
   the Al-Hawijah District and Yayji Sub-District police forces, arrested 11
   terrorist and wanted persons during raids in five villages near the Himrin
   Mountains. The report also cites Ahmad al-Sulayti, deputy chairman of the
   Basra Governorate Council, as saying tha t the council is considering
   compensating the families of the victims of the recent terrorist attack
   that targeted the governorate.

   Al-Sabah carries on page 4 a 260-word report citing Vice President Adil
   Abd-al-Mahdi as condemning the recent terrorist attacks that targeted the
   innocent citizens in the Basra Governorate. He added that these attacks
   were aimed at obstructing the ongoing talks between the political blocs to
   form the next government.

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 4 a 500-word report citing a police source as
   saying that six persons were injured in an explosion that targeted a
   medical complex west of the capital. The report also cites a security
   source as saying that a force from the Anti-Terrorism Agency arrested the
   director of the Abu-Ghurayb Police Station for involvement in terrorist
   acts. The report adds that the security agencies arrested 29 wanted
   persons, including a prominent Al-Qa'ida leader, during raids in separate
   areas of Iraq.

   Al -Sabah publishes on page 4 a 160-word report citing an official
   security source as saying that the civil defense teams have managed to put
   out the fire that broke out at the Al-Sadir Hotel in Baghdad.

   Al-Zaman publishes on the front page a 200-word report saying that the
   Interior Ministry has decided to issue weapons to the traffic policemen to
   protect themselves against the terrorist attacks following the attacks
   that targeted them in a number of districts in Baghdad. The report adds
   that an explosive device targeting a traffic police directorate in the
   Al-Ghazaliyah District in Baghdad was detonated killing two people,
   including a traffic policeman, and injuring eight others, including five
   traffic policemen.

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 2 a 200-word report saying that the Basra
   Governorate Council has announced three days of mourning in the
   governorate over the terrorist attacks in the Al-Ashar District that led
   to the death of 43 people and the injury of 185 others. The report adds
   that the council has decided to question Basra Police Commander Adil
   Dahham about the bombings.

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 2 a 200-word report saying that a conference
   organized by Deputy Prime Minister Rafi al-Isawi was held to discuss the
   security situation in the Al-A'zamiyah District in Baghdad and the public
   services that are provided to the citizens.

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 2 a 120-word report saying that the US handed
   over three military bases to the Iraqi Army in the Maysan Governorate.

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 2 a 100-word report saying that the person who
   assassinated the mayor of Al-Multaqa Sub-district in the Kirkuk
   Governorate handed himself over to the security forces.

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 3 a 200-word report saying that the security
   forces arrested two persons in possession of drugs in the Al-Aziziyah
   District in Baghdad. The report adds that two others were arrested for the
   same reason in the Al-R afa'i and Al-Shatra Districts in the Dhi Qar
   Governorate. The report adds that clashes erupted between the security
   forces and armed groups in the Abu-Ghurayb District in Baghdad.

   Al-Mada publishes on the front page a 200-word report citing Traffic
   Police Commander Ja'far al-Khafaji as saying that the Interior Ministry
   has drawn up new plans to protect the traffic policemen.

   Al-Mada publishes on page 2 a 400-word report saying that a member of the
   Awakening Councils was assassinated when gunmen opened fire on him in the
   Ba'qubah District in the Diyala Governorate. The report adds that the
   security forces arrested the gunmen after cordoning off the area.

   Baghdad on 9 August publishes on page 4 a 120-word report citing
   Environment Minister Narmin Uthman as saying that there are a large number
   of land mines in Iraq and that the government has a plan to remove them in
   collaboration with foreign companies until 2018.

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 9 August publishes on page 2 a 100-word report
   citing a source as saying that the security forces arrested four officers
   in the Diyala Passports Directorate after the disappearance of 1,200
   passports from the directorate. VII. HEALTH AND HUMAN RIGHTS ISSUES

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 5 a 240-word report citing Salam
   al-Khafaji, deputy minister of immigrants and displaced persons, as
   affirming that more than 32,000 Iraqi people from central Iraq, especially
   from the Ninawah Governorate, have left their homes to live in Kurdistan.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 5 a 300-word report on Kurdish Health
   Minister Dr Tahir Hurami's visit to the Al-Shikhan District. The report
   says that Hurami affirmed plans to expand the Al-Shikhan Public Hospital.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 5 a 200-word report saying that Asus
   Najib Karmayani, Kurdish minister of labor and social affairs, met with
   the coordinator of the European Union in Kurdistan to discuss bilate ral
   cooperation.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 9 a 400-word report entitled "Culture
   Ministry Holds Meeting for Chairmen of Cultural Committees in
   Governorates."

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 13 a 760-word report citing scholars
   as urging the government to establish centers for the rehabilitation of
   patients who suffer from psychological disorders in order to prevent the
   terrorist groups from exploiting them in their terrorist operations.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 13 a 600-word article by Dr Mu'taz
   Muhyi Abd-al-Hamid on the suffering of the families of mentally retarded
   children.

   Al-Mu'tamar publishes on page 3 a 300-word report entitled "Inauguration
   of Project for Development of Financial Resources of Young People in
   Baghdad."

   Al-Mu'tamar publishes on page 5 a 900-word report by Zuhayr al-Fatlawi on
   the primitive tools that are being used in the production of ice blocs and
   the lack of quality cont rol and health monitoring of ice production
   plants in the country.

   Al-Mashriq publishes on page 4 a 240-word report citing an official source
   at the Health Ministry as affirming that an Iraqi medical team has
   successfully performed a test tube fertilization operation on a barren
   woman, for the first time in Iraq, at the Kamal al-Samarra'i Hospital in
   Baghdad.

   Al-Mashriq publishes on page 4 a 400-word report citing Adil Mustafa,
   director of the Justice Ministry's Property Ownership Registration Office,
   as affirming that the office has succeeded in reorganizing 90 percent of
   the files that were looted or destroyed after the downfall of the former
   regime in 2003.

   Al-Mashriq publishes on page 4 a 200-word report citing Baghdad Deputy
   Governor Muhammad al-Shammari as affirming the payment of the salaries of
   the first and second groups of the Social Protection Network's
   beneficiaries in Baghdad.

   Al-Muwatin on 9 August publishes on page 3 a 130-word repo rt saying that
   the Al-Rasafah Health Department organized a medical conference that was
   attended by Health Minister Dr Salih al-Hasnawi.

   Al-Muwatin on 9 August publishes o n page 3 a 240-word report citing Jasim
   Muhammad Ja'far, youth and sport minister and acting chairman of the
   Political Prisoners Establishment, as saying that the establishment will
   pay 30 million Iraqi dinars to every political prisoner.

   Al-Istiqamah on 9 August carries on page 2 a 120-word report citing the
   media spokesman for the Karbala Health Department as saying that the
   department has closed a number of water treatment factories for violating
   the health regulations.

   Al-Sabah carries on page 5 a 90-word report citing a medical source in the
   Kurdistan Region as saying that the number of diabetes patients in the
   region is increasing. (OSC plans no further processing)

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 3 a 300-word report saying that a US medical
   staff specialized in children heart s urgery visited the Dhi Qar
   Governorate and that it will perform surgeries and train medical staff in
   the governorate.

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 4 a 400-word report entitled "Christians in
   Dahuk Governorate Commemorate 70 th Anniversary of Massacre of Five
   Thousand People."

   Al-Bayyinah on 9 August devotes half of page 6 to a report on the
   radioactive pollution in Iraq.

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 9 August publishes on page 4 a 100-word report
   saying that the Babil Health Directorate has inaugurated a center for
   medical rehabilitation and physiotherapy at the Murjan Hospital in the
   governorate. VIII. ECONOMIC NEWS AND PUBLIC SERVICES

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on the front page a 150-word report citing an
   official source at the Communications Ministry's Post and Communications
   State Company as affirming that the company has begun the tentative
   operation of the prepaid card system to improve the land-based telephone
   services in the country.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 7 a 1,800-word report on the
   electricity crisis in the Baghdad, Ninawah, Wasit, Maysan, Al-Diwaniyah,
   Diyala, and Babil Governorates.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 8 a 500-word article by Sadiq
   al-Azraqi on the chaotic import policy and trade activities in the
   Al-Shurjah and other wholesale markets in Baghdad.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 8 a 1,500-word part one of a
   three-part report by Dr Salam Sumaysim entitled "Stock Market, Economic
   Development."

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 4 a 1,400-word report by Hamdi al-Ani on
   the suffering of the poor families due to the high cost of living in the
   country.

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 4 a 750-word report by Nahi al-Amiri
   criticizing the Baghdad Mayoralty for its failure to remove the ongoing
   violations by the large number of livestock vendors on Baghdad's parks and
   streets.

   Tariq al-Sha'b devotes most of page 5 to public c omplaints.

   Al-Mu'tamar publishes on page 5 a 1,400-word report by Ali Hashim citing
   citizens as saying that the high rent rates have forced them to build
   their houses on public properties.

   Al-Mashriq publishes on page 4 a 200-word report citing an official source
   at the Higher Education and Scientific Research Ministry as saying that
   the ministry has decided to allow students, whose average mark is 64.5, to
   apply for the postgraduate studies in the next academic year.

   Al-Mashriq publishes on page 4 a 700-word report citing Monorail Project
   Director Muhammad Ali Hashim as saying that the Baghdad local government
   is holding negotiations with a Russian company on the implementation of
   the project.

   Al-Istiqamah on 9 August publishes on page 2 a 170-word report saying that
   a delegation representing a Turkish company visited the Al-Diwaniyah
   Governorate and discussed with Al-Diwaniyah Governor Salim Husayn Alwan
   the investment opportunities in the gover norate.

   Al-Da'wah on 9 August publishes on the front page a 160-word report on the
   statement the Electricity Ministry issued saying that 10 high-voltage
   power lines that feed Baghdad have been sabotaged, leading to an increase
   in the power outages in the capital.

   Al-Da'wah on 9 August publishes on page 4 a 130-word report citing Hadi
   Jaddu, director general of the State Company for Shopping Centers, as
   saying that the Trade Ministry has signed a number of contracts to import
   food items for the company's shopping centers.

   Al-Da'wah on 9 August publishes on page 4 a 220-word report citing Oil
   Ministry Spokesman Asim Jihad as saying that the ministry rejects the
   export the Kurdistan Region's oil to Iran, and affirming that this oil
   must only be exported through the oil pipeline to the Turkish Ceyhan Port.

   Al-Da'wah on 9 August publishes on page 4 a 90-word report saying that
   Mahmud Abd-al-Rida Talal, chairman of the Wasit Governorate Council, and a
   d elegation representing a South Korean company held a meeting at the
   council's building during which they discussed the possibility of
   implementing a number of projects in the agriculture sector. (OSC plans no
   further processing)Al-Adalah publishes on page 2 a 65-word report citing
   Najah Naji, Al-Qadisiyah deputy governor for technical affairs, as saying
   that the governorate will implement 60 projects in the educational,
   services and health sectors at a cost of 83 billion Iraqi dinars as part
   of the 2010 Regions Development Plan. (OSC plans no further processing)

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 2 a 120-word report citing Basra Water
   Resources Director Ala-al-Din al-Tahir as saying that the Water Resources
   Ministry will implement a drinking water project in the governorate.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 2 a 250-word report citing Agriculture
   Minister Dr Akram al-Hakim, during a symposium, as saying that
   desertification is the main problem facing the agricultural sector in the
   country. The report also cites Science and Technology Ministry
   Undersecretary Fu'ad Kazim al-Musawi as affirming that desertification is
   negatively affecting the national development plans in the country.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 2 a 135-word report on the statement the
   Baghdad Investment Commission issued saying that the commission has
   granted three investment licenses to implement a number of projects in the
   housing, commercial and cultural sectors in the capital.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 2 a 120-word report citing a source in the Dhi
   Qar Governorate as saying that Dhi Qar Deputy Governor Haydar Abd-al-Wahid
   al-Bunyan and a number of directors of the services departments in the
   governorate held a meeting during which they discussed the governorate's
   five-year plan.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 2 a 125-word report on the statement the
   Baghdad Municipality issued saying that the municipality has allocated
   seven billion Iraqi dinars to solve the problem of garbage in the capital.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 2 a 100-word report citing Jasim al-Fatlawi,
   member of the Human Rights Committee at the Karbala Governorate Council,
   as saying that the council has resumed providing the Bab Baghdad Prison
   with electricity from the emergency electricity lines. (OSC plans no
   further processing)

   Al-Bayan on 9 August publishes on page 2 a 270-word report citing Baghdad
   Mayor Dr Sabir al-Isawi as announcing a new proposal on creating a real
   economic partnership between Iraq and the Arab countries through
   attracting the Arab companies to implement investment projects in Iraq.

   Al-Bayan on 9 August publishes on page 2 a 130-word report citing the
   construction and housing minister as saying that her ministry has
   completed the rehabilitation of the Al-Jibayish Street in the Dhi Qar
   Governorate at a cost of two billion Iraqi dinars.

   Al-Bayan on 9 August publishes on page 3 a 140-word report citing Baghdad
   G overnor Dr Salah Abd-al-Razzaq as saying that the Baghdad Investment
   Commission has granted an investment license to construct a media city in
   the capital.

   Al-Sabah publishes on the front page a 130-word report citing a media
   source at the National Retirement Commission as saying that the Finance
   Ministry, in coordination with the parliament, has prepared a study to
   increase and amend the pensions of civilian and military pensioners.

   Al-Sabah carries on page 2 a 170-word report citing Prime Minister Nuri
   al-Maliki, during his meeting with Egyptian Oil Ministry Undersecretary
   Abd-al-Alim Taha in Baghdad, as inviting the Egyptian companies to
   participate in the reconstruction campaign in Iraq.

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 2 a 130-word report citing Hashim Muhammad
   Hatim, director general of the State Company for Iraqi Fairs, as saying
   that the company has completed the preparations for organizing the Baghdad
   International Fair in the capital.

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 2 a 130-word report citing Shakir al-Zamili,
   chairman of the Baghdad Investment Commission, as saying that the State
   Company for Iraqi Railways has submitted an investment bid to construct
   the Baghdad Monorail in the capital.

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 5 a 270-word report citing Muthanna Jabbar
   Abd-al-Zahrah, director general of the State Company for Grain Processing,
   as urging the citizens and flour agents not to receive poor quality flour.

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 5 a 130-word report citing Zahid al-Bayyati,
   the prime minister's adviser for agricultural affairs, as saying that the
   Water Resources Ministry will implement the Basra Irrigation Channel
   Project will supply drinking water from north of the governorate to the
   southern part of the Al-Faw City at a cost of 142 billion Iraqi dinars.

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 5 a 120-word report citing Abbas Nasir Hasani,
   chairman of the Construction and Strategic Planning Committee at the K
   arbala Governorate Council, as saying that the Al-Faw State Company for
   Implementing Irrigation Projects and Agricultural Land Reclamation has
   completed the construction of an irrigation channel in the governorate at
   a cost of six billion Iraqi dinars.

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 5 a 190-word report citing the construction and
   housing minister as saying that her ministry implemented 1,613 services
   projects in Iraq during the past four years at a cost of 1.2 trillion
   Iraqi dinars.

   Al-Sabah carries on page 5 a 120-word report citing the media spokesman
   for the Kurdish Electricity Ministry as saying that 100 megawatts will be
   added to the electricity grid in the Kurdistan Region soon.

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 5 a 120-word report citing a source in the
   Kurdistan Region as saying that the higher education and scientific
   research minister in the region discussed with a delegation from the
   Higher Education and Scientific Research Ministry ways of enhancing the
   mutual cooperation and improving the higher education sector in Iraq.

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 4 a 200-word report entitled "Bag hdad
   Municipality Calls for Arab Partnership to Implement Reconstruction
   Projects."

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 4 a 200-word report citing Baghdad Governor
   Salah Abd-al-Razzaq as saying that the Media City Project will be
   implemented by a Malaysian company in the coming five years at an
   approximate cost of $128 million.

   Al-Mada publishes on page 4 a 300-word report citing Baghdad Mayor Sabir
   al-Isawi as saying that the Baghdad Municipality has decided to allocate
   an extra seven billion Iraqi dinars to improve the services in the
   capital. IX. PRESS COMMENTS

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 2 a 900-word article by Amir al-Hilu
   urging the writers who post their articles online to adhere to the ethics
   of journalism.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 3 a 600-word article by Jihad Zayyir
   on the sufferin g of the Iraqi travelers due to the ongoing violations by
   the transportation companies.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 9 a 600-word article by Dr Hadi Hasan
   Ulaywi entitled "Political Elite's Historical, Ethical Responsibilities."

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 11 a 1,200-word the last part of a
   two-part article by Dr Azhar al-Gharbawi entitled "In Light of US
   President Obama's Strategy, Will US Forces Withdraw From Iraq by End of
   2011?"

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 11 a 900-word article by Ra'd Abbud
   Rashid commenting on US President Obama's recent statements affirming the
   withdrawal of the US troops from Iraq, and saying that the US
   Administration has failed to resolve the disputes between the rival Iraqi
   political leaders over the formation of the new government. The article
   says that apart from the next prime minister's post, the Iraqi political
   forces do not actually know what they want.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 11 a 500-word article by Mahmud
   Khayyun criticizing former President Saddam Husayn and other megalomaniac
   leaders who destroyed their countries.

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 5 a 400-word article by Abid Ali Jawad
   criticizing the widespread corruption and bribery at the state
   institutions.

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 5 a 500-word article by Kifah Muhammad
   Mustafa strongly criticizing the Iraqi Government and political forces for
   their failure to resolve the unemployment problem in the country.

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 7 a 600-word article by Yusuf Qasim Rida
   entitled "Iraqi Communist Party's Youths, Progressive Literature."

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 7 a 600-word article by Abd-al-Aziz Lazim
   urging the civil society organizations to consolidate their cultural and
   social activities in society.

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 8 a 600-word article by Adil
   Abd-al-Zahrah Shabib entitled "We Still Need Marx," commenting on the
   current global economic crisis.

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 8 a 1,200-word article by Muhsin Hasan
   Uwaynah discussing the 2010 budget.

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 8 a 900-word article by Rawhi Aziz
   al-Sa'd discussing ways to combat the ongoing money laundering.

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 9 a 1,800-word article by Dr Sabih
   al-Jabir strongly criticizing some Iraqi satellite television channels and
   other media outlets for exploiting the freedom of the press in the country
   to mislead the public opinion and defame the ongoing democratic process in
   the country. The article also criticizes some Iraqi political leaders and
   officials in the government for their anti-government discourse.

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 9 an 800-word article by Ibrahim
   al-Mashhadani commenting on the ongoing disputes between the rival Iraqi
   political leaders over the next prime minister's post and other senior
   posit ions. The article predicts that the new government would be based on
   the sectarian proportional power sharin g system and would be even weaker
   than the outgoing government.

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 9 a 1,000-word article by Baqir al-Fadli
   commenting on the ongoing disputes between the rival Iraqi political
   leaders over the next prime minister's post and other senior positions in
   the new government. The article says that during his recent interview with
   the Al-Iraqiyah Satellite television Channel, outgoing Prime Minister Nuri
   al-Maliki revealed the sectarian nature of the ongoing political crisis in
   the country.

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 9 a 1,200-word article by Rida al-Zahir
   strongly criticizing the prominent Iraqi political leaders and forces for
   their struggle over power while neglecting the challenges facing the
   country and the Iraqi people.

   Tariq al-Sha'b devotes all of page 10 to part three of a report listing
   the names of the 2,612 Iraqi Communist Party's martyrs who have been
   granted pension recently.

   Al-Mu'tamar publishes on page 8 an 800-word article by Sa'dun Thamir
   strongly criticizing the Iraqi officials and parliament members for their
   undeserved handsome salaries and privileges while a large number of Iraqi
   are living below the poverty line.

   Al-Mu'tamar publishes on page 8 an 800-word article by Raghib al-Rikabi
   entitled "Liberalism, Democracy."

   Al-Mu'tamar publishes on page 8 a 600-word article by Hawwas Mahmud
   entitled "Arab Societies Suffer From Terrorism or Tyranny."

   Al-Mu'tamar publishes on page 8 a 1,300-word article by Khalil Hasan
   entitled "Religion Between Modernization, Westernization."

   Al-Mashriq publishes on the back page an 800-word article by Sabah al-Lami
   strongly criticizing the rival Iraqi political leaders for their ongoing
   disputes over the next prime minister's post while neglecting the problems
   of the Iraqi p eople.

   Al-Alam publishes on page 8 a 600-word article by Maytham Lu'aybi
   discussing the concept of the state budget.

   Al-Alam publishes on page 11 a 700-word article by Abd-al-Khaliq Gitan
   urging the government to develop the Al-Jumhuriyah Street and other
   districts in central Baghdad.

   Al-Alam publishes on page 11 a 1,000-word article by Nabil Ali Salih
   entitled "Islam, Violence: Role of Intellectuals in Changing Traditional
   Image.

   Al-Alam publishes on page 11 a 1,400-word article by Ahmad al-Wazzan on
   the danger of administrative economic corruption.

   Al-Muwatin on 9 August publishes on the last page a 300-word article by
   Majid Zaydan strongly criticizing Tariq Aziz for urging the Americans to
   stay longer in Iraq.

   Al-Istiqamah on 9 August publishes on page 5 a 470-word article by Ahmad
   Abd Radi commenting on the real reasons for the delay in the formation of
   the next government.

   Al-Istiqamah on 9 August publishes on page 5 a 400-word article by Ammar
   al-Amiri commenting on the attacks by the Iraqi politicians on each other
   and the dilemma of the formation of the next government.

   Al-Istiqamah on 9 August publishes on page 5 a 480-word article by Ahmad
   Shalash commenting on the challenges facing the political process in Iraq
   as a result of the delay in the formation of the next Iraqi Government.

   Al-Da'wah on 9 August publishes on page 7 a 580-word article by
   Abd-al-Razzaq al-Safi commenting on the delay in the formation of the next
   Iraqi Government.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 2 a 540-word article by Sa'd Sahib al-Wa'ili
   commenting on the report the Oxfam International Agency issued on the
   widows in Iraq, and calling on the Iraqi Government and parliament to
   improve the living conditions of widows.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 3 a 320-word article by Dr Ali Khulayyif
   commenting on the fires that broke out at the Trade Ministry's building
   and at a number of other minis tries and government institutions.

   Al-Adalah publishes on the last page a 440-word article by Hafiz
   al-Bisharah commenting on the withdrawal of the US forces from Iraq.

   Al-Sabah carries on page 3 a 280-word article by an observer commenting on
   the recent terrorist attacks in Iraq, saying that they are aimed at
   destabilizing the security situation in Iraq at this time to send a
   message to the Iraqi people telling them that the current political crisis
   has negatively reflected on the security situation in the country and that
   the withdrawal of the US forces from Iraq will lead to chaos.

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 13 an 800-word article by Zuhayr Kazim Abbud in
   which he says that the terrorist attack that targeted a number of Iraqi
   soldiers and burned their bodies were aimed at fuelling sectarian sedition
   in Iraq again.

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 13 a 500-word article by Umran al-Ubaydi
   commenting on the violations on the Iraqi Constitution that took place
   following the recent legislative elections.

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 15 a 400-word article by Jasim Ali al-Musawi
   entitled "Iraqi Uprisings between Spontaneity, Organization."

   Baghdad on 9 August publishes on page 2 an 800-word article by Ibrahim
   Ahmad entitled "Democracy before Federal Court."

   Baghdad on 9 August publishes on page 2 a 300-word article by Sabah
   al-Shammari entitled "Loopholes in Constitution, Impact on Political
   Situation."

   Baghdad on 9 August publishes on page 2 a 400-word article by Burhan
   Muhammad al-Ubaydi entitled "New Government, Hope for Better Future."

   Baghdad on 9 August publishes on page 2 a 500-word article by Dr Adil Izzi
   al-Bayyati entitled "Withdrawal of US Forces, Readiness of Iraqi Forces."

   Al-Bayyinah on 9 August devotes half of page 6 to an article by Khalid
   Shabashki entitled "Why Does Saudi Arabia not Accept New Iraq?"

   Al- Bayyinah on 9 August publishes on page 11 a 300-word article by Ala
   al-Turayj who criticizes Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki for the recent
   statements he made during an interview that was broadcast on the
   Al-Iraqiyah Satellite Television Channel.

   Al-Bayyinah on 9 August publishes on page 11 a 400-word article by Ibrahim
   Ahmad al-Ghanimi who praises the religious authorities for their concern
   for the political process and the interests of the people.

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 9 August publishes on page 6 a 300-word article
   by Nasir Sa'id al-Bahadili who calls on Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and
   Finance Minister Baqir al-Zubaydi to keep their promises and hold a live
   debate in front of the people to discuss the allocations of the past four
   years.

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 9 August devotes half of page 10 to part two of
   an article by Qasim al-Ubudi entitled "Impact of Electoral System in
   Partisan Coalitions."

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 9 Augu st publishes on page 19 a 400-word
   article by Muhammad al-Yasiri entitled "Sa'dun al-Dulaymi: Compromise
   Candidate." X. CORRUPTION

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 7 a 1,600-word interview with Joseph
   Stanford, coordinator of anti-corruption at the US Embassy in Baghdad, on
   the widespread corruption at the state institutions in Iraq.

   Al-Istiqamah on 9 August publishes on page 2 a 280-word report saying that
   the National Center for Consultations and Administrative Development in
   the Maysan Governorate organized a workshop during which it discussed the
   National Strategy for Combating Administrative Corruption in Iraq.

   Al-Istiqamah carries on page 4 a 600-word interview with Qays Ali Husayn,
   assistant inspector general of the Finance Ministry.

   Al-Da'wah on 9 August publishes on page 7 a 550-word article by Muhammad
   Sadiq Jarad calling for combating the spread of administrative corruption
   at the government's departments.

   Al-Sabah p ublishes on the front page a 140-word report citing Ala Muhyi
   al-Din, secretary general of the Electricity Ministry, as saying that the
   ministry has started an investigation into the stoppage of a number of
   recently constructed electricity power units of electricity stations.

   Al-Zaman publishes on the front page a 400-word report citing Education
   Ministry Inspector General Muzaffar Yasin al-Sa'dun as saying that a
   network of persons who have been counterfeiting certificates has been
   uncovered and that they include a number of employees in the ministry.

   Baghdad on 9 August publishes on page 4 a 100-word report citing Ziyad
   Ahmad Diwanah, chairman of the Integrity Committee in the Diyala
   Governorate Council, as saying that the Oil Products Directorate in the
   governorate suffers from widespread financial and administrative
   corruption.

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   42) Back to Top
   Highlights of Khabat, Kurdistani Nuwe 9 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from the two leading Iraqi Kurdish
   newspapers, Khabat and Kurdistani Nuwe, on 9 August. To request additional
   processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735, or fax
   (703) 613-5735. - Iraq -- OSC Summary
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 10:51:52 GMT
   http://www.xebat.net/ http://www.xebat.net)

   -- Khabat carries a 2,000-word page 2 report on a press conference by
   Mas'ud Barzani and the visiting Iraqi prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki,
   following a meeting between the two in Arbil. Barzani denied allegations
   that he was against Al-Maliki's re-election as the next Iraqi premier,
   adding that no one is allowed to speak on his behalf in this way.
   Al-Maliki says Article 140 is not out of date, but is an active
   constitutional article that needs to be implemented. He adds that, if the
   Iraqi people to do not adhere to the constitution, there will be no future
   for any of these constituents in the country. Barzani says the US
   delegation to Iraq never asked the Kurds to relinquish their demand for
   the Presidency, adding that the Kurds will never agree to such a request.

   -- Kurdistani Nuwe carries a 500-word report on pages 2 and 3 saying that
   the PUK Political Bureau convened a meeting to discuss the Iraqi political
   crisis and the delay in forming a new government. The meeting expressed
   concern over the disagreements among the Iraqi political forces. The
   meeting also stressed the need for the PUK to collaborate with the
   Kurdistan Region Government, KRG, on the unification of the Peshmerga
   forces. Jalal Talabani, the Iraqi president and PUK secretary general,
   chaired the meeting. (Description of source: Al-Sulaymaniyah Kurdistani
   Nuwe Online in Kurdish - website of Kurdistani Nuwe, daily newspaper
   published by the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, PUK, URL:

   http://knwe.org/ http://knwe.org) Kurdistan Region Affairs

   -- Khabat carries on pages 1 and 13 a 200-word "clarification" by the
   Arbil security department saying that the editor of the magazine, Hawdam,
   recently appeared on the satellite TV, KNN, in which he claimed that the
   Arbil security forces had inspected the magazine's office in Arbil without
   cause, and that those who run the magazine decided to suspend publication
   until the legal proceedings are over. The security statement says that the
   magazine recently misled many youngsters from the city of Arbil and sent
   them to known destinations.

   -- Khabat carries on pages 1 and 13 a 400-word statement by the Kurdistan
   Journalists' Syndicate condemning the Al-Sulaymaniyah-based magazine,
   Levin, for cond ucting and publishing an interview with a Kurdish PhD
   student at Harvard University, who made allegations against the late
   Mustafa Barzani, the founder of the KDP. The statement says that the
   magazine has crossed the limits of freedoms. It says that the entire Levin
   item, which was published on 1 August, is aimed at slandering the Kurdish
   leader. It adds that the item serves the enemies of the Kurdistan Region
   and undermines the Kurds' unity of rank.

   -- Khabat carries a 1,200-word page 3 interview with Khalaf Ghafur,
   political editor of the PUK-funded daily newspaper, Aso, to comment on the
   nature of the Iraqi State. The report says that Iraq is only a name that
   does not carry the sense of a country, and while the Kurds never aspired
   to be part of Iraq, they have always found a way to adapt to the
   environment and the regional setup. Ghafur says that the more Kurds become
   aware, the more the idea of a united Iraq fades away. He says that while
   the current geopolitical setup is not conducive to the deceleration of an
   independent Kurdish state, it does not mean that the Kurds have to let go
   of their dream -- one day it will come true.

   -- Khabat carries a 300-word page 3 report saying that the KRG is planning
   to build five modern detention centers across the Region.

   -- Kurdistani Nuwe carries a 2,500-word page 9 interview with Bayiz
   Talabani, KRG finance minister, to comment on the ministry's plans and
   relations with Baghdad. He also explains the reasons behind the cuts in
   KRG allowances for NGOs, which he says are mainly due to the fact that
   some NGOs that were working for similar causes were run separately under
   the two Kurdish administrations prior to their merger in 2005. In line
   with a KRG decision, they had to be amalgamated, or their funds had to be
   cut. The funds of others were cut because they were inactive. He also says
   that several important issues remain unresolved between the KRG and
   Baghdad, such as the budget of the Peshmerga forces, which is supposed to
   be paid out to the KRG, but the Iraqi Government has failed to so. He says
   that due to such problems with Baghdad the Kurdistan Region has suffered
   some 4 trillion dinars (3.3 billion dollars) in losses over the past four
   years.

   -- Kurdistani Nuwe carries on page 17 a 2,500-word interview with Imad
   Ahmad, PUK Political Bureau member, to comment on the PUK action plan as
   recommended during the latest party conference. The recommendations
   include shrinking the number of PUK centers in the cities and setting up a
   central council for the party. As to reports about PUK involvement in the
   export of oil, Ahmad says that the PUK has nothing to do with such
   activity, but it is a matter for the government to deal with, adding that
   the oil exported abroad is only surplus oil product that cannot be refined
   in the Kurdistan Region. Iraq Issues

   -- Kurdistani Nuwe carries a 300-word page 2 report saying that, in line
   with an Iraqi Oi l Ministry decision, 1,186 new staff members have been
   recruited in the Northern Oil Company in Kirkuk and other departments
   under the ministry, but the percentage of Kurds among the new recruits is
   reportedly considerably low compared with that of Iraqi Arabs. Jamal
   Mawlud, of the Kirkuk Governorate Council's Oil and Gas Committee, says
   all the decisions by the Oil Ministry are politically motivated. MP Sirwan
   Ahmad, of the Kurdistan Alliance, says the move is an extension of the
   Ba'th regime's Arabization policies. Kirkuk Governor Abd-al-Rahman Mustafa
   strongly criticizes the move.

   -- Kurdistani Nuwe carries a 500-word report on pages 2 and 3 citing Harem
   Kamal-Agha, head of the PUK Center in Mosul, saying that Nur-al-Din
   al-Hayali, member of the Coalition for Iraqi Unity, has called on Mosul
   MPs to stand against the general census in the city, saying that it would
   create a rift among the constituents of the city. Kamal-Agha says such
   statements will not affect the process, which is fully backed by the
   Kurdish leadership. Commentary

   -- In a 700-word page 13 Article in Khabat, Tariq al-Hamid says: While the
   United States is reaffirming the country's commitment to the withdrawal of
   its forces from Iraq, Nuri al-Maliki continues to hang on to his seat,
   despite the fact that he lost in the last election round. It is also
   surprising to see Iran backing him and calling on the Iraqi factions to
   accept him. It is only left for an observer to believe that there is no
   difference between Saddam Husayn and Nuri al-Maliki. The question is: Why
   did the Americans remove Saddam Husayn in the first place -- only to
   replace him with another? And it is also wise to ask: What is the
   difference between today's Iraq and the one that was managed by Saddam,
   and what will be the scale of the threats Iraq will face after the
   withdrawal of the US forces? The article was first published in Al-Sharq
   al-Awsat.

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   43) Back to Top
   UK Arabic Press 10 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from the UK Arabic Press on 10 Aug 10.
   To request additional processing, contact the OSC Customer Center at (800)
   205-8615 or OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - United Kingdom -- OSC Summary
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 08:18:34 GMT
   1. Article by Husam Itani saying opposition to building mosque near Ground
   Zero in New York reflects endeavor to perpetuate a typical hostile vision
   of Islam and Muslims. (600 words, processing)

   2. Article by Jihad al-Khazin calling demand by American Republican
   representatives on Obama's administration to back Israel fully against
   Iran is a blank check for war on Iran that will spread to engulf the
   entire region. (700 words, processing)

   London Al-Sharq al-Awsat Online in Arabic 10 Aug 10 (Website of
   influential London-based pan-Arab Saudi daily; editorial line reflects
   Saudi official stance. URL:

   http://www.asharqalawsat.com/ http://www.asharqalawsat.com/)

   1. Report on statement by Saudi official that Saudi demand to have its own
   Blackberry server is a sovereign principle. (400 words, processing)

   2. Report saying Iraqi Prime Minister Al-Maliki's meeting with Kurdish
   leader Mas'ud Barzani was not as successful as claimed by Al-Maliki's
   supporters. (800 words, processing)

   3. Report citing Iraqi sources on conditions by Al-Sadr Trend and Kurdish
   Alliance that are impeding the formation of new government. (800 words,
   processing)

   London Al-Quds al-Arabi Online in Arabic 10 Aug 10 (Website of
   London-based independent Arab nationalis t daily with strong anti-US bias.
   URL:

   http://www.alquds.co.uk/ http://www.alquds.co.uk/)

   1. Editorial saying Nasrallah's presentation of evidence of Israel's
   involvement in Al-Hariri's assassination was convincing adding that the
   anticipated indictment of Hizballah wants "to demonize Hizballah so as to
   create the excuses for an Israeli strike against it in preparation for an
   aggression against Iran to destroy its nuclear program. (600 words, no
   processing planned) Negative selection: London Ilaf.com in Arabic 10 Aug
   10 (Saudi-owned, independent Internet daily with pan-Arab, liberal line.
   UR L:

   http://www.elaph.com/ http://www.elaph.com/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   44) Back to Top
   Highlights -- Iraqi Southern Governorates Newspapers 01 - 07 Aug
   The following lists selected items from newspapers published in the Iraqi
   southern governorates 01 - 07 Aug. To request additional processing,
   please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735, or fax (703) 613-5735.
   This product is provided by the commercial establishment MediaWatch Middle
   East, Dubai, UAE. OSC is not responsible for the editorial standards of
   this translation - Iraq - OSC Summary
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 06:40:01 GMT
   Chairman of Basra Provincial Council, Jabbar Amin Al Lateef, announced
   that more than 4000 Iranians enter from Al Shalamja crossing point, east
   of Basra, every day. Jordan hosts seminar on electricity in Iraq Al Khuld
   Studies and Researches Center in Jordan's capital, Amman, organized a
   seminar on the 'developing electricity in Iraq'. Iraqi Minister: Delay in
   forming government affects work of the ministries Minister of Sciences and
   Technology, Raed Fahmi, said the delay in forming the new Iraqi government
   affected the work of the Iraqi ministries. Electricity ministry signs MoU
   with French group. The Iraqi Ministry of Electricity signed a memorandum
   of understanding with the French Industrial Group to install electricity
   stations of 1200MW capacities. Basra Civil Forum holds conference The
   establishing conference of the Basra Civil Forum was held last week in the
   presence of 25 civil society organizations in Basra. Roz Nouri Shawis
   receives US ambassador Deputy Prime Minister Roz Nouri Shawis received
   Kari Karabo, the ambassador at the US Embassy in Baghdad, and discussed
   with him the bilateral ties and ways of enhancing them for the interest of
   both nations. Basra Sawt al-Mar'ah in Arabic -- Weekly issued by Asma
   al-Hassan, 01 August 2010 In the country of oil and two rivers

   The article here is written by Kathem Aska r. He sheds light on the hard
   living conditions in Iraq and the increase of poverty despite the fact
   that Iraq is considered the state of oil and the two rivers. Basra
   environment dept. organizes workshop on Al Balti fish Basra environment
   department has organized a workshop on the Balti fish in the regional
   waters of Iraq, its environment and spread as well as its impact on the
   environmental system. IQD2.5bn allocated to fight Nile flower and harmful
   herbs in Dijla and Furat rivers The ministry of water resources announced
   allocating IQD2.5bn to fight the Nile flower and harmful herbs in Dijla
   and Furat rivers. Basra youth department opens first conference of Basra
   Civil Forum The establishing conference of the Basra Civil Forum was held
   by the Youth and Sport Department in Basra. Trade Ministry opens doors for
   local and foreign companies to invest in Iraq The Iraqi Trade Ministry
   announced opening the doors for the local and foreign companies to invest
   in the local central markets in Baghdad and other provinces according to
   the law. Seminar held in Arbil The development organization of the
   Kurdistan students, in cooperation with the International forum for
   Islamic youth, held a seminar presented y Islamic thinker, Sabah Kafri in
   Arbil Iraqi institute adopted training project The Iraqi institute
   concluded a workshop held in Beirut at the aim of supporting the Iraqi
   women in the parliament council. Project of establishing boats marine
   continues The center of reviving Al Ahwar area in Iraq continues works in
   its project to establish a marine for boats in Basra province, Hartha,
   east of Hor Al Salal area. Al Mustansiya University receives Arab League's
   ambassador President of Al Mustansiya University, Ahmed Al Quraishi,
   affirmed the importance of setting up a cooperation strategy between Al
   Mustanseriya and the universities in the Arab League. MoH holds first
   seminar on Mental Retardation The Iraqi Ministry of Health held its first
   seminar on the Mental Retardation under the theme 'let us protect our
   children from Mental Retardation'. Zebari affrms readiness of embassies to
   help planning ministry conduct census Foreign Minister Hoshiar Zebari
   received Minister of Planning Ali Baban and discussed with him the
   preparations for conducting the general population census in Iraq.
   Election commission dimisses Hamdiya Al Husseini The commissioners council
   of the independent higher commission for elections re-elected Faraj Al
   Haidari as chairman of the council. Kareem Al Tamimi was elected as
   chairman of election department to replace Hamdiya Al Husseini. Mosawi:
   gaps in constitution open door for political blocs to explain it as they
   want Member of the national coalition, Kamila Al Mosawi, said the
   political crisis is increasing because of the gaps in the constitution
   which allow the political blocs to explain the items of the constitution
   as they want. Biden praises Iraqi leaders US Vice President Joe Biden said
   the US for ces will end its mission in Iraq within a month as President
   Obama promised right after he resumed the presidency on January. Finance
   Minister instructs including companies of mixed sectors in operational
   loans Minister of Finance Baqer Al Zubaidi instructed the government's
   banks to include the companies of the mixed sector in the operation al
   loans. This was upon meeting of the minister with Ali Juma, the chairman
   of national union of labors syndicates and a many members from the union.
   Sadi company to invest $300 million in electricity sector in Basra Basra
   International Airport witnessed first meeting between a Saudi investment
   group and the local government of Basra in a step towards activating the
   investment in Basra. Governor of Basra Sheltagh Aboud, said during meeting
   a delegation from Al Jumaih Group of energy companies, said the Saudi
   investment is welcomed in Basra and all facilities will be presented for
   them. Damlouji: Current government ended its mission by en d of previous
   parliament council Spokesperson of Iraqiya list and former parliament
   member, Maysoun Al Damlouji said the previous parliament council gave the
   authority for the current government and since the parliament council
   ended its period, the government ended its period as well. Zeinab Al Kenan
   accuses heads of blocs for delaying forming the government intentionally
   Parliament member of the National Coalition, Zeinab Al Kenani said some
   leaders of political blocs worked intentionally to delay forming the new
   government to open doors for the US occupation administration, represented
   by the Security Council, to interfere for forming the government. Basra
   governor discusses investment with Saudi companies Governor of Basra
   Sheltagh Aboud held a meeting with a delegation from Saudi companies and
   discussed with them implementing projects in Basra in the various fields.
   Oil Ministry to open gas sector for foreign investment The Ministry of Oil
   announced that it will open th e sector of the natural gas, which
   accompanies oil operations, for the foreign companies to invest it. Al -
   Adhwaa Newspaper, 01 August 2010 E-library to open soon in Basra
   University Dr Hamed Al Thalemi, the secretary General of the central
   library at Basra University, said the e-library will be open soon,
   pointing out that it will contain more than 320,000 e-books. Hassan
   Ibrahim Mahmoud interviewed Here is an interview with Hassan Ibrahim
   Mahmoud, the director general of Basra Center for Special Education for
   Autism Children. Mother leaves her daughter as shame The article here is
   written by Maysam Zeid. She tells a story of a 12-year old girl who went
   to buy something from the supermarket for her mother at noon but she was
   kidnapped and raped by some men. They returned her back and then ran away.
   The girl died after that as her brother killed her in the name of honor.
   Private lessons phenomenon The article here is written by Wesam Nayed Al
   Zaydi. He sheds light on the ph enomenon of private lessons given to
   students at the various levels which have become worrying for parents and
   the official of the education ministry. Women and children trafficking
   spread The article here is written by Maysam Zeind. She sheds light on the
   phenomenon of women and children trafficking which have spread across Iraq
   especially after the fall of the former regime. Driver and passenger pay
   the price The article here is written by Laith Al Lami. He said the
   transportation and paving the roads as well as allocating garages are main
   significations for civilization and prosperity. The writer sheds light on
   the suffering of passengers and the drivers alike in light of
   deterioration in the situation of transportation. Barber profession The
   article here is written by Aziz Al Bazouni. He sheds light on the Barber
   profession which is one of the most spread professions. The article
   includes view points of some barbers and of customers about the hai r
   fashions. Al Dh eik: S and dam on Furat river is fruitful Taleb Ali Al
   Dheik, the Director General of Water Resources Dept. in Al Ahwar said the
   sand dam which was build on Al Furat river improves the quality of water,
   increases the level of water and decreases the level of saltiness.
   Training course on media concluded Some of 20 trainees of journalists and
   members of civil societies ended the training course on media which was
   organized by the Society of Developing media in Maissan in cooperation
   with the National Fund for Democracy. Dr Saeed Jassem Al Asadi interviewed
   Here is an interview with Dr Saeed Jassem Al Asadi, the professor of
   educational and psychological guidance department at the Faculty of
   Education. Basra receives grant of 200 green houses The US Department of
   Agriculture granted 200 green houses for Basra province to support the
   small farmers in the province. Seminar held on international treaty for
   combating corruption The executive office of the general inspection
   department of the Electricity Distribution Directorate in Southern areas
   held a seminar to shed light on the international treaty and the national
   strategy 2010-2014 for combating corruption. Southern Electricity
   Distribution Dept. continues campaign against violations in Basra Upon
   directives of the Cabenit, the Southern Electricity Distribution Dept.
   continues its campaign against the violations on the electricity network n
   Basra. Women Leadership institute holds play and artistic exhibition At
   the aim of combating gender-based violence in Baghdad, Basra and Thi-Qar,
   the Women Leadership Institute organized a play entitled 'Press
   Conference' at Jordan Girls' School in Al Ma'qel area funded and supported
   by the UNICEF. Al Qaeda attacks Al Arabiya office in Baghdad Some of six
   people were killed and 20 others were injured in the attack of Al Qaeda on
   Al Arabiya channel's office in Baghdad. The military operations command in
   Baghdad uncovered a terror plan that will target the mass media, channels
   and journalists. Number of Iranian visitors at Al Shalamja point increases
   Chairman of Basra Provincial Council, Jabbar Amin Al Lateef, announced an
   increase in the number of Iranian visitors who enter from Al Shalamja
   crossing point in Basra. Local government in Basra rejects violating the
   city's electricity share Chairman of Basra Provincial Council, Jabbar Amin
   Jaber said the local government refuses any violation on the province's
   electricity share which is about 900-1000 MW per day. Basra council
   discusses projects value IQD286bn The Basra Provincial council discussed a
   number of projects for the year 2011 within the budget of developing the
   areas at a value of IQD286 billion. Contract signed for establishing plant
   for producing Chlorine and Caustic Soda The general company for
   petrochemical industries, which is part of the ministry of industry and
   minerals, signed a contract with Knowledge Dar Company for Petroleum and
   Engineering Equipment to establish a pla nt for producing Chlorine and
   Caustic Soda. Husseini Education Department holds many activities A
   delegation from the Husseini Center for Studies in London visited Kuwait
   and Iraq during July 4-23, 2010, within the frame of introducing the
   Husseini Education Department. Al Ashar River Here is a photo caption of
   Al Ashar River which is almost dry. Driver and passenger pay the price The
   article here is written by Laith Al Lami. He said the transportation and
   paving the roads as well as allocating gara ges are main significations
   for civiliza tion and prosperity. The writer sheds light on the suffering
   of passengers and the drivers alike in light of deterioration in the
   situation of transportation. Dr Saeed Jassem Al Asadi interviewed Here is
   an interview with Dr Saeed Jassem Al Asadi, the professor of educational
   and psychological guidance department at the Faculty of Education. Where
   to ? The article here is written by Wafi Al Ameri . He sheds light on
   situation in Iraq and the suffering of poor people who are seeking to have
   jobs and depend on the ration cards in their daily life. Editorial News
   said there is an initial agreement between Al Maliki and Allawi to share
   the power and to give the Kurds the position of Speaker of parliament but
   the main problem remains who will be the prime minister during the last
   two years while the presidency will for the other party. Baghdad
   Al-Manarah in Arabic -- Independent political daily; Internet version
   available at: http//:www.almannarah.com, 04 August 2010 Pentagon can't
   account for how it spent $2.6 billion in Iraqi funds The Washington Post
   newspaper uncovered a new episode in the chain of corruption in Iraq when
   it posted news about the disappear of $2.6 billion in Iraq. Because of
   poor record-keeping and lax oversight, the Department of Defense cannot
   account for how it spent $2.6 billion that belonged to the Iraqi
   government, according to the inspector general for Iraq reconstruction.
   Lawsuit of $1bn filed against newspaper Metro center for defending
   journalists, which represent the media freedom observatory in Kurdistan,
   expressed deep concern about the lawsuit filed against Roznama newspaper
   by the secretary of the political office of the Kurdish Democratic Party
   demanding the newspaper to pay $1 billion as compensation. Faculty of
   Management and Economics at Maissan University establishes new classrooms
   The faculty of management and economics at Maissan University signed a
   contract with a Turkish company to build two new classrooms. Comprehensive
   survey in Wasit launched The information department at Wasit provincial
   council announced the launch of the comprehensive survey for the regions
   and districts in Wasit province. Government of regional accord The article
   here is written by Jassem Al Halfi. He sheds light on the role of the
   regional intervention in process and discussions of forming the new Iraqi
   government. Water resources ministry still working on establishing dam in
   Basra The Ministry of Water resources continues working in establishing Al
   Suwaib Dam in Basra province, Al Qarna area. The project is extended on
   200,000 sqm and values IQD27.628bn Nainawa health dept: 1443 medical
   machines installed in 2009 The Health Department in Nainawa province said
   the 1443 medical machines were installed at the hospitals in the province
   during 2009. July organization concludes computer training course in Babel
   July Organization for social development concluded the third computer
   training course in Babel province which was held during June 20- August
   1st with the participation of 14 trainees. Center of training widows
   concludes 11th course in Baghdad The department of training widows in
   Baghdad graduated the widows and orphan women who concluded the 11th
   training course which included 4 workshops on computer and Internet,
   sewing and textile, health rehabilitation, and English Language, in
   addition to a workshop on human rights w hich focused on the combating
   violence against women. Rosaries making in Iraq The article here is
   written by Muntaser Al Ta'ei. He sheds light on the rosary-making
   profession in Iraq. He said the rosary is one of the folkloric needs that
   Iraqi people has been familiar with since ages and it is still inherited
   from father to son till these days. Women Rights between tradition and
   religion The Iraqi women have been suffering from the traditions of tribes
   which violate their rights such as the tradition that gives the man the
   right to marry his cousin even if she does not want to which is against
   Islam and its Sharia. The article here sheds light on some viewpoints in
   this regard. Trade Ministry catches fire The Iraqi Ministry of Trade's
   headquarters in Baghdad caught fire. Police said the fire started at the
   fifth floor, the department of trade contracts of the ministry, but the
   reasons were not discovered till now. Maliki: We agreed to set up a true
   reform paper Iraqi Prime M inister Nouri Al Maliki said his desire to stay
   in his position is not the real problem facing forming the new government.
   He pointed out that the regional interference is reason behind the current
   crisis. The only solution to elect the new prime minister The article here
   is written by Haydar Al Asadi. He sheds light on the contradictory
   statements and the officials who stick to their positions, while the Iraqi
   people are suffering from lack of services and hard conditions. Al Muallem
   uncovers Syrian-Iranian conflict regarding forming Iraqi government Syrian
   Foreign Minister Waleed Al Muallem said there is a disagreement between
   Syria and Iran regarding the political process in Iraq because Iran
   insists to nominate another candidate to be the Prime Minister of the new
   Iraqi government. Iraq intelligence fiasco could happen again So now we
   know. Iraq posed no real threat prior to the Anglo-American invasion of
   March 2003. There was no credible intelligence to suggest any link between
   Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden. But what the assault on Iraq did do
   was proliferate jihadism across the Middle East and incubate Islamist
   extremism in the UK, leading to the London Tube and bus bombings five
   years ago and 15 other "substantial plots". "Arguably we gave Osama bin
   Laden his Iraqi jihad," Eliza Manningham-Buller, former director-general
   of MI5, the British domestic security service, told the UK war inquiry
   this week." Spreading cancer in Iraq The article here is written by Sameer
   Saeed. He said that after the massacre committed by the US occupation
   forces in Al Fallouja city in Iraq and using the banned bio-chemical
   weapons, the eyes are concentrating on the city as it is still suffering.
   A new study conducted by the Lester university in the UK showed that the
   percentage of death of the new porn babies increased in Fallouja in
   addition to doubling the number of cancer infections by 10 folds. US
   security wars The article her e is written by Ayman Khalid. He said there
   will be more of the mysterious bombings in many countries such as
   Pakistan, India, Iran, Iraq and maybe Turkey and some Arab countries. All
   these bombings are similar in the way of performing them and it shows
   there is a US hand in this. National government or government of
   partnership? The article here is written by Abbas Al Sayed Jassim. He
   said: In spite of the improvement in the security situation in Iraq since
   2007, the gap between the Iraqi people's aspirations and the reality is
   still wide. He sheds light on the clashes between the political blocs to
   form the new government regardless of the interests of the citizens. Trade
   Ministry catches fire. The Iraqi Ministry of Trade's headquarters in
   Baghdad caught fire. Police said the fire started at the fifth floor, the
   department of trade contracts of the ministry, but the reasons were not
   discovered till now. Al Athamiya... between two scenes The article here is
   written by Mwauf faq Al Rifai. He sheds light on the terror attack in Al
   Athmaiya which led to killing many citizens and injuring many others.
   Constituent conference for injured political prisoners in Wast held A
   gathering for the injured politicians from the policies of the former
   regime held a constituent conference in Wasit province in the presence of
   local officials. Deyaa Al Khateeb, the chairman of the preparatory
   committee of the conference, said the gathering is independent and is not
   linked to the government. 200 Iraqi prisoners held by US forces The US
   forces has handed the Cropper prisoner, news Baghdad International
   Airport, over to the Iraqi government mid of July and transferred 1500
   prisoners, but the US side is still holding 200 prisoners in one of the
   Cropper prison's sections. Dr Riyad al Asadi The article here is written
   by Dr Riyad al Asadi . He said the modern Islamic renaissance started
   strongly in the second half of the 20th century after the failure of the
   regional an d international blocs and the fiasco of the liberalization to
   provide solutions out of the known economic frames. The writer talks about
   the Islamic moves and politicians in Iraq and their role in the political
   process. Baghdad Al-Manarah in Arabic -- Independent political daily;
   Internet version available at: http//:www.almannarah. com, 07 August 2010
   Despite pledges, Iraqi Kurd oil still flows to Iran Despite a pledge by
   Iraqi Kurdistan to crack down on the flow of fuel being smuggled to Iran,
   the only real impediment truck drivers say they face are long lines that
   force them to wait for days to cross. Perhaps around 100 tanker trucks
   corralled into groups of 10 or a dozen by Kurdish police idled on the road
   to the border point of Haj Umran on Tuesday, waiting for their chance to
   pass over to unload fuel at Iranian ports or fuel depots. Revolution of
   July after a century and two years The article here is written by Faleh
   Abdul Jabbar. He sheds light on the Revolution of J uly, 1958. He said
   those who celebrate this anniversary remember the revolution and its
   objectives that included: liberty from occupation, agricultural reform,
   establishing the national oil company, sheltering the migrant farmers in
   modern cities and issuing a family law that protects the women's rights.
   Sabah Ali Al Shaher The article here is written by Sabah Ali Al Shaher. He
   raises questions about the US forces and why did USA destroyed the
   infrastructure in Iraq. He said the occupation forces wanted to privatize
   the facilities and resources in Iraq. Villages in Wasit calls on
   authorities to interfere to make Iran release water in Al Kalal river
   Citizens in the villages near the Iranian borders in Wasit province called
   on the local government to interfere to make the Iranian authorities
   release the water in Al Kalal river as the situation is deteriorating at
   the humanitarian and economic levels. UN relief agencies report slow
   improvement in Iraq, but situation still 'prec arious' United Nations
   relief agencies reported a slow improvement today in the humanitarian
   situation in Iraq but there were still many areas for concern, with
   spokesmen describing the state of affairs as "precarious" and "tense." A
   new corridor for food supplies was opened, more doctors were returning to
   hospitals, water supply had improved and the electricity was back on in
   scattered areas of Baghdad. Al Hakeem calls on Maliki to explain where did
   the $280bn disappear Leader of the Higher Islamic Council, Ammar Al
   Hakeem, renewed call on the government to show where did it spend $280
   billion during the past five years, describing the statement of Prime
   Minister Nouri Al Maliki as 'big corruption'.

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   45) Back to Top
   Tehran Commentary Argues West Imposed New Sanctions Despite Iran Agreeing
   Talks
   Unattributed commentary: "Iran's Response to Vienna Group" - Jam-e Jam
   Online
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 17:20:29 GMT
   On 3 Khordad (24 May), Iran sent a letter to the IAEA, informing the
   organization and also the US, France, and Russia (Vienna Group) officially
   about the details of the Tehran Declaration. According to the Tehran
   Declaration, Iran has agreed to entrust its 3.5-percent enriched uranium
   to Turkey. In return for this, the Vienna Group should hand over 120 kg of
   20-percent enriched fuel needed for the Tehran reactor to Iran within one
   year.

   This letter from Iran remained unanswered. Simultaneously, with the
   ratification of the Security Council's fourth sanction resolution against
   Iran on 1 9 Khordad (9 June), IAEA head Yukiya Amano informed the Board of
   Governors that he had received letters from the French, Russian, and US
   Governments as responses to the Tehran Declaration. This happened when
   many political experts regarded the Tehran Declaration as an appropriate
   opportunity for the resolution of the Iran nuclear issue. They defined the
   insistence by America and its allies on issuing new resolutions as a sign
   of their dishonesty.

   Anyhow, about a month and a half later and after separate letters by the
   member countries of the Vienna Group to Tehran, IAEA head Yukiya Amano and
   Ali Akbar Soltaniyeh, Iran's permanent representative to this
   organization, held a meeting. At this the latter officially announced
   Iran's readiness for talks with the Vienna Group on the fuel swap for the
   Tehran reactor in the framework of a new letter. Iran's Readiness for
   Participation in Talks Without Conditions

   After handing this letter to the agency, Soltaniyeh said : "This letter's
   important, definite, and evident message is Iran's complete readiness for
   participation in talks on the provision of fuel for the Tehran reactor
   without conditions."

   In his interview to ISNA (Iranian Students News Agency), he pointed to
   Amano's remarks in this meeting by saying: "The director general of the
   agency welcomed and praised Iran's decision on its readiness for talks on
   the provision of fuel, announcing that he will make any attempts toward
   this goal and will not withhold any effort for implementing this project
   in the framework of the agency." Iran's representative in the agency
   added: "The agency head also said that he will hand the text of Iran's
   letter, which has been written in three pages, to the three countries of
   America, France, and Russia." Soltaniyeh said: "We have announced in this
   letter that, as soon as the other sides announce their readiness, Iran is
   completely ready to participate in talk s and meetings on the ways of
   providing fuel for the Tehran reactor."

   In addition, in his interview with the Al-Alam Television News Channel,
   Soltaniyeh pointed to handing Iran's letter to the agency, stressing that
   a new opportunity for an immediate start of talks without conditions and
   the resolution of all problems has been provided. He said this letter
   expressed Iran's official position and can be a positive step for entering
   talks without conditions. He emphasized: "Now the ball is in the
   westerners' court and the West should take steps in the frameworks of the
   agency with this regard, and put its political goals and desires aside."
   Soltaniyeh expressed the hope that the agency will consider the Tehran
   Declaration in the forthcoming talks on the Iran nuclear issue and the
   westerners will not lose this opportunity.

   Al i Akbar Salehi, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, has
   pointed to this letter a few days ago, announcing: "Iran's letter is a
   general answer and the technical details will be announced in the possible
   talks that will take place in future." Sanctions in Return for Talks

   These steps are taken by Iran for the continuation of talks, while the
   western countries still insist on their claims about imposing new
   sanctions against Iran. Based on this, the US tried to add to the volume
   of sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council by deciding unilateral
   sanctions about a month ago. Following the US, the EU and Canada also
   decided new sanctions against Iran last Monday (26 July).

   According to Mehr, the new sanctions by the EU, which gained an executive
   nature with the signature of the union's foreign ministers last Monday,
   include a ban on investment in the gas and oil sector, and further
   limitations on the shipping and banking sectors. In addition, because of
   these sanctions, 41 Iranian officials, 57 companies and their
   subsidiaries, 15 companies managed by the (Islamic Revolution) Guards
   Corps (IRGC), and the companies active in some shipping lines are on the
   list of the sanctions of the EU.

   Immediately after the announcement of the unilateral sanctions of the EU
   and Canada against Iran, the US secretaries of state and treasury welcomed
   these sanctions in a joint statement. European Union Has Created Doubts
   About Its Independence

   The spokesman of our country's Foreign Ministry has condemned these
   sanctions, stressing that the EU is taking steps on a wrong path with
   closed eyes under American pressure and that it has created doubts about
   its nature and independence. According to the Central News Unit, Ramin
   Mehmanparast considered the new sanctions imposed by the EU as ineffective
   and non-constructive. He added: "These sanctions are neither useful for
   the progress of negotiation and the policy of negotiations, nor will they
   create a gap in the Iranian nation's will for attaining their legal rights
   and followin g their peaceful nuclear plan."

   Mehmanparast stated: "Iran has made moves for cooperation with the goal of
   creating a positive atmosphere several times, while the EU's action will
   make the situation more complicated." The Foreign Ministry spokesman
   added: "The recent move by the EU is the continuation of the West's failed
   policy against Iran over the past 30 years, and will gain no result but
   the strengthening of the great Iranian nation's self-reliance and
   stability. In addition, this will deprive Europe and the West of
   opportunities for cooperation and collaboration with a regional power that
   has huge capacities in various political, economic, and cultural spheres."
   Mehmanparast added: "The sanctions route is an old, tested, and
   inefficient one and has the opposite effect."

   The Foreign Ministry spokesman pointed to Iran's moves for creating trust,
   addressing the question of why, in a situation when a step forward is
   taken , some sides have entered the operation and are trying to turn
   cooperation into the opposition of the members of the EU. He emphasized:
   "Iran evaluates the recent move by the EU as another step in the path of
   enmity with the Iranian nation, which will intensify the distrusting
   atmosphere between the Iranian nation and the initiators of this action
   and will have negative consequences for them." Russia: Europe's Sanctions
   Against Iran Were Insult to UN

   Russia has shown in the past few years that it only takes steps in favor
   of its own interests. However, after the decision on the new EU sanctions
   against Iran, which endangers some of that country's interests in Iran, it
   has criticized these sanctions by issuing a statement.

   According to Fars, Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has criticized the
   EU's unilateral move through a statement, stressing that these sanctions
   are considered an insult to the UN. According to this statement, the EU's
   sanction s against Iran are an obstacle on the path of international
   efforts for the resolution of the Iran nuclear issue and deviates the
   hopes for close cooperation between Russia and the West on this issue.
   Ankara Does Not Implement EU's Sanctions Against Iran

   Turkey's Finance Minister also stressed that his country will not follow
   the US and EU unilateral sanctions against Iran. According to Fars, in an
   interview with the British Financial Times newspaper, Mehmet Simsek
   pointed to the implementation of the UN resolutions by his country,
   saying: "When requests are made by single countries for extraordinary
   sanctions, we should not implement them." He added: "The easing of
   commercial activities with Iran, which have not been banned according to
   the UN resolution, should continue and will continue. If a trade deal
   needs financial support, we should find a way of providing for it."

   The Turkish finance minister has made these remarks while, at a me eting
   in Istanbul last Sunday (25 July), the foreign ministers of the three
   countries of Iran, Brazil, and Turkey announced their faithfulness to the
   Tehran Declaration and mentioned it as the best opportunity for the
   resolution of the Iran nuclear issue.

   (Description of Source: Tehran Jam-e Jam Online in Persian -- website of
   conservative daily published by Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting
   (IRIB), whose head is appointed by the supreme leader; URL:
   http://www.jamejamdaily.net)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   46) Back to Top
   Vietnam Discusses Civil Nuclear Co-Op Agreement With U.S.
   Xinhua: "Vietnam Discusses Civil Nuclear Co-Op Agreement With U.S." -
   Xinhu a
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 03:54:49 GMT
   HANOI, Aug. 11 (Xinhua) -- Vietnam is having discussions on negotiations
   with the United States about a civil nuclear cooperation agreement,
   Vietnam News reported on Wednesday, citing spokesperson of Vietnamese
   Foreign Ministry.

   The agreement on civil nuclear cooperation covers the transfer of
   information relating to nuclear materials, equipment and technology by the
   United States to ensure that nuclear weapons are not proliferated, said
   spokeswoman Nguyen Phuong Nga on Tuesday in a written reply to reporters'
   queries.According to Nga, Vietnam strongly supports and actively
   contributes to the world nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation of
   nuclear weapons.As a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty,
   Vietnam has been speeding up the use of nuclear energy for peaceful
   purpose, Nga said.Vietnam has always been committed to fully implementing
   its obligations under the treaty and many countries and nations appreciate
   this effort, she said.Vietnam is willing to expand international
   cooperation on the use of nuclear energy to provide electricity, said
   Nga.Earlier this year, Vietnam signed a memorandum of understanding on
   nuclear energy cooperation for peaceful purpose with the United States in
   March.Vietnam has signed bilateral nuclear cooperation agreements with
   Russia, China, France, India, the Republic of Korea and Argentina,
   according to the report.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English
   -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China
   News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   47) Back to Top
   US Agency To Provide $4 Million for Public Health Essential Services to
   Angola
   Unattributed report: "USAID's Angolan Health Services Estimated at US$4
   Million" - PANA Online
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 10:41:42 GMT
   (Description of Source: Dakar PANA Online in English -- Website of the
   independent news agency with material from correspondents and news
   agencies throughout Africa; URL:
   http://www.panapress.com/english/index.htm)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   48) Back to Top
   Austria's Schlaff Portrayed as 'Networker' With Own 'Best Interests' in
   Mind
   Rep ort by Hedi Schneid and Thomas Seifert: "Billionaire on Delicate
   Mission" -- first paragraph is Die Presse.com introduction. - Die
   Presse.com
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 12:10:43 GMT
   Five months ago, Israeli photographer Rafael Haddad travelled to Libya
   with his Tunisian passport (he has dual citizenship) to take photographs
   of Jewish sites on behalf of an organization called Or Shalom. Although
   there are no more Jews living in Libya these days, Jewish life used to
   flourish in the past. According to Or Shalom, Haddad's job was to document
   the Jewish heritage there. Haddad obviously attracted the attention of the
   Libyan authorities and was arrested in March for suspicion of espionage.

   The Israeli authorities did all they could to bring him back home to
   Israel. According to the Israeli daily Haaretz, Israel, officially at war
   with Libya, asked the United States, France, a nd Italy to help get Haddad
   free. Haaretz also reported that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu
   personally asked his Italian counterpart Silvio Berlusconi to intervene
   for the benefit of Haddad. Two months ago, Israel's controversial Foreign
   Minister Avigdor Lieberman decided to contact his friend Martin Schlaff
   with the request to intercede.

   Schlaff has excellent contacts with the Al-Qadhafi family; he is regarded
   as a friend of Saif al-Qadhafi, the son of Libyan revolutionary leader
   Mu'ammar al-Qadhafi. Schlaff succeeded where Berlusconi obviously failed:
   Haddad was set free. Schlaff sent his private jet to Libya straight away
   to pick Haddad up and fly him to Vienna. Lieberman, who had come there
   from his vacation in Moldova where he was born, welcomed Haddad and
   accompanied him back to Israel.

   Aviv Aharon Shir-On, Israel's Ambassador to Austria, thanked the Austrian
   authorities and Schlaff for their "support." Yossi Levy of the Israeli
   Foreign Ministry in Jerusalem was effusive in his interview with Die
   Presse : "Minister Lieberman would like to express his gratitude to the
   Austrian authorities and his friend Martin Schlaff. This was a fantastic
   achievement. We in Israel do not always see happy endings, but today, we
   did. The atmosphere in the airport on Mr. Haddad's return was wonderful."
   Super Networker

   Yet there is doubt both in Israel and in this country that all Schlaff
   wanted to do when bringing about the deal with Libya was a selfless good
   deed. The businessman, who is known for risky, but all the more profitable
   transactions, has probably had his own specific best interests in mind,
   also in this case: Schlaff will have tried to put the government in
   Jerusalem in a "mild" mood.

   Schlaff has attracted the attention of the Israeli legal authorities,
   suspecting him of having paid bribes in the amount of some 3 million euros
   to the family of former Prime Minister Ariel Sharo n, who is in a coma.
   According to Haaretz, the Israeli fraud squad recommended in June to
   charge Schlaff and Sharon's sons Gilad and Omri with corruption. Chief
   Public Prosecutor Yehud Weinstein is to make a decision soon. The money is
   said to have gone through the hands of British-South African businessman
   Cyril Kern in 2002, who paid it into a BAWAG account from where it was
   transferred to Sharon's sons. It was paid back that same year -- whether
   to Schlaff himself or business partners is unclear.

   A second affair over corruption charges concerns Lieberman himself.
   Schlaff is believed to have transferred huge amounts of money to him. All
   those involved in the matter must be presumed to be innocent. "Someone
   like Mr. Schlaff has not and will not bribe anyone," Schlaff had his
   spokesman Fink tell Die Presse back in 2006 already when the stories
   surfaced. Nothing needed to be added in this respect, the statement on
   Monday was.

   Yet Schlaff steers clear of Israel: he even stayed away from the funeral
   of his father in April, because Israeli police had threatened to arrest
   him for questioning on the two cases of suspected bribery. Schlaff's
   lawyer had submitted an application requesting to allow him to enter the
   country for a few hours to attend the funeral, which the authorities
   rejected. Discreet Networker

   The 57-year-old, who is considered to be extremely shy when it comes to
   publicity, will not like the fact that he is making the front pages at the
   moment. The billionaire, who is also regarded as a friend of late
   Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat, prefers to pull the strings in his global
   network from the background -- in politics just as in business and art.
   The son of a Jewish merchant family trading in timber and paper has made
   discretion his principle -- his multi-million deals rarely hit the
   headlines. He bought mobile phone companies in Bulgaria and Belarus which
   he then sold on to Telekom Austria, p ocketing more than 600 million
   euros. The casino in Jericho, originally developed together with Casinos
   Austria and expected to become a goldmine, has been closed since the
   Intifada broke out in the fall of 2000. Its reopening is presumed to have
   repeatedly played a part in the conversations between Sharon and Schlaff.

   (Description of Source: Vienna Die Presse.com in German -- Website of Die
   Presse, an independent, high quality center-right daily; URL:
   http://diepresse.com/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   49) Back to Top
   Colombia, Andean Crime and Narcotics Issues 9 Aug 10 - Andean -- OSC
   Summary
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 19:27:32 G MT
   Bogota El Tiempo reports that legislator Ivan Cepeda has sent a letter to
   President Juan Manuel Santos asking him to postpone the extradition to the
   United States of Eder Pedraza Pea, alias Ramon Mojana. El Tiempo also
   reports that Cepeda wrote this letter following the authorization by the
   Supreme Court of Mojana's extradition. Cepeda also said that "experience
   shows that extradition to the United States of former paramilitary leaders
   does not promote the judicial proceedings of crimes against humanity and
   freezes knowing the truth." (Bogota eltiempo.com in Spanish -- Website of
   pro-Liberal Party, most influential newspaper published by Casa Editorial
   El Tiempo with the largest circulation in Colombia; URL:

   http://www.eltiempo.com/ http://www.eltiempo.com ) Supreme Court
   Authorizes Extradition of Person Allegedly Involved in Training Drug
   Couriers --

   Bogota El Espectador reports that the Criminal C ourt of the Supreme Court
   has authorized the extradition to the United States of Maria Odilia
   Machado, alias La Negra. El Espectador also reports that Machado allegedly
   prepared human couriers to be used by drug traffickers to send narcotics
   through Ciudad Juarez in Mexico to Texas. El Espectador further reports
   that Machado was captured last January in Bogota during operations in
   Villavicencio (Meta), Popayan (Cauca), and in Mexico City. (Bogota
   elespectador.com in Spanish -- Website of right-leaning daily owned by
   Bavaria Group and Santodomingo family; URL:

   http://www.elespectador.com/ http://www.elespectador.com ) Weekly Reports
   Intimidations Against Judges, Detectives in Illegal Surveillance Case --

   Bogota Semana reports that threats against important witnesses, judges,
   and detectives have started now that the trial in the DAS (Administrative
   Department of Security) illegal surveillance case is about to begin.
   Semana published a picture of the house of Det ective Alexander Menjura
   following the explosion of a grenade launched last January. Semana also
   reports that Judge Jenny Rosalia Jimenez reported receiving death threats
   following ordering the arrest of Mario Aranguren, UIAF (Information and
   Financial Analysis Unit) director. Semana further reports on an
   unidentified witness who allegedly received death threats against her kids
   and said "they are capable of doing that or more" in relation to a strange
   incident on 31 October 2009 in which a DAS agent killed two DAS colleagues
   at a party. Semana spoke with at least eight detectives who have been
   intimidated and reports that the media have also received threats. (Bogota
   Semana.com in Spanish -- Website of private, most influential weekly news
   magazine; URL:

   http://www.semana.com/ http://www.semana.com ) Authorities Capture Alleged
   FARC Leader Involved in Drug Trafficking --

   Cali El Pais reports that a source in the Narino Palace has confirmed the
   killin g of Felix Antonio Munoz Lascarro, alias Pastor Alape, during
   operations in the Perija Mountain range. Munoz, who was a member of the
   FARC's command staff, was charged with drug trafficking by the United
   States Government. El Pais also reports that US authorities accused Munoz
   of being a drug trafficking leader in the Magdalena Medio region and
   offered a reward for his capture. (Cali El Pais in Spanish -- Website of
   Pro-Conservative Party daily; URL:

   http://www.elpais.com.co/ http://www.elpais.com.co ) Authorities Capture
   Alleged Associate of Alias Comba in Bogota --

   Bogota Caracol Radio website reports that Dijin (Judicial and
   Investigative Police Directorate) and Interpol agents have captured Oscar
   Eduardo Galvis Pena in Bogota. Galvis is a fugitive from US justice who
   was an alleged member of the Calle brothers, Javier Antonio and Luis
   Enrique Calle Serna, alias Los Comba's gang. The website also reports that
   Interpol had issued a red notice for his capture. Galvis is wanted for
   allegedly belonging to a drug trafficking gang. (Bogota Caracol Radio
   Online in Spanish -- Website of private radio station owned by Spain's
   Promotora de Informaciones, S.A. (Prisa); URL:

   http://www.caracol.com.co/ http://www.caracol.com.co ) BOLIVIA Daily
   Reports Defense Lawyers Trying To Stop Money Laundering Trial --

   Cochabamba Los Tiempos reports that the defense lawyers for Enrique
   Saavedra, Silvia Saavedra, and Candida Dorado de Saavedra are trying to
   stop the trial by saying that the prosecutors in the case are trying to
   define for the first time a crime called "legalization of illegal
   earnings." These three persons are involved in a money laundering case
   called Saga for its relation to convicted drug trafficker Gaston Saavedra.
   (Cochabamba Los Tiempos.com in Spanish -- Website of conservative
   newspaper with widest circulation in Cochabamba, owned by the Canelas
   family. Published in partnership with the Rivero family, m ember of the
   Grupo Lider media conglomerate which also inlcudes PAT (Periodistas
   Asociados de Television) television network, owned by the Daher family of
   Santa Cruz; URL:

   http://www.lostiempos.com/ http://www.lostiempos.com ) Bolivian, Peruvian
   Authorities Cooperate in War Against Smuggling --

   Cochabamba Los Tiempos reports special police groups from Bolivia and Peru
   are sharing information to dismantle gangs involved in smuggling and other
   crimes. Los Tiempos also reports that gangs involved in smuggling use the
   same routes to bring counterfeit currency into the country. Los Tiempos
   also reports that the Desaguadera point is one of the most important
   border crossings on the border with Peru. ECUADOR National Police
   Intelligence Director Reports Black Eagles, Drug Traffickers, FARC
   Operating in Ecuador --

   Guayaquil El Universo Online publishes an interview with National Police
   Intelligence Director Fabian Solano in which he says that drug trafficking
   ga ngs under investigation are involved with the FARC. Solano also said
   that the Black Eagles gang is trying to control areas in Ecuador as
   "happened in Colombia" and that drug traffickers are renting farms and
   paying high prices for the land. Solano further reports that the
   authorities have seized more than 10 tons of narcotics and two
   submersibles. Solano also said that finding the two submersibles was a red
   flag. (Guayaquil El Universo Online in Spanish -- Website of influential
   daily owned by Grupo El Universo C.A.; consistently critical of the
   government; URL:

   http://eluniverso.com/ http://eluniverso.com ) Daily Reports Abandoned
   Villages Due to Eradication, Spraying Programs in Putumayo Near Border --

   Guayaquil El Universo Online reports that persons living in villages in
   Putumayo Department near the border with Ecuador have moved to Narino
   Department or to Ecuador following spraying and eradication programs
   "which left us without a source of income." The website also reports that
   in El Palmar in Ecuador commercial activity has disappeared and people
   selling $5,000 on a monthly basis now hardly sell $1,000. PERU Ecuadoran
   Drug Traffickers Allegedly Kill Intelligence Agent in Lima --

   Lima RPP Noticias Online reports that two drug traffickers from Ecuador
   are allegedly involved in the killing of Gustavo Adolfo Castillo Ortiz,
   42, non-commissioned officer for the Intelligence Unit of the police. The
   website also reports that the two Ecuadorans left the club with a Peruvian
   who was captured and charged with being an accomplice in the murder. (Lima
   RPP Noticias Online in Spanish -- Website of top-rated commercial news
   radio station, owned by Grupo RPP, S.A. (Radio Programas del Peru); URL:

   http://www.rpp.com.pe/ http://www.rpp.com.pe/ ) Coca Growers End Strike in
   Ucayali --

   Lima RPP Noticias Online reports coca growers in Ucayali Department have
   ended a strike following "momentary s uspension" of eradication of coca
   crops by the Corah (Special Project for the Controland Eradication of Coca
   in the Upper Huallaga). The website also reports that eradication will be
   suspended until requirements by coca growers are met. The coca growers
   require eradication projects to be consensual and the creation of a law
   forbidding commercializing the coca leaf. The following media were scanned
   and no file-worthy items were noted:

   (Bogota Cambio.com.co in Spanish)(Medellin El Colombiano.com in
   Spanish)(Barranquilla EL HERALDO.COM.CO in Spanish)(Cartagena El Universal
   Online in Spanish)(Bucaramanga Vanguardia.com in Spanish)(Bogota Office of
   the President in Spanish)(Bogota RCN Television Online in Spanish)(Bogota
   National Navy of the Republic of Colombia in Spanish)(La Paz La Razon
   Online in Spanish)(Santa Cruz de la Sierra eldeberdigital.com.bo in
   Spanish)(Quito El Comercio.com in Spanish)(Lima La Republica Online in
   Spanish)

   Material in the World New s Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   50) Back to Top
   Mugabe's Anti-West Remark Affects Effort To Re-Engage With EU
   Article by Njabulo Ncube: "EU Re-Engagement in Trouble: 'Go To Hell West'
   at the Centre of it" - The Financial Gazette Online
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 11:32:34 GMT
   With talks of fresh elections next year to bring closure to the
   inconclusive 2008 po-lls, which gave birth to the current coalition
   government, President Mugabe could already have entered into election
   mode.Whenever an election approached in Zimbabwe, it has always been
   anti-Western rhetoric that made the greatest dimension of ZANU-PF's strate
   gy, noted Maisiri. "So the scolding is supposed to alert all ZANU-PF
   supporters that it is once again election time and that there is need to
   start to raise the perennial anti-western propaganda in order to brainwash
   the rural masses who unfortunately are robbed of pure, truthful and
   development-based news," he said.

   (Description of Source: Harare The Financial Gazette Online in English --
   Website of privately owned weekly whose audience is primarily the
   middle-to-upper income segment. Often critical of government policies and
   largely believed to be owned by Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono; URL:
   http://www.financialgazette.co.zw/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   51) Back to Top
   Toyota Suspends Auto Exports to Iran Over Nuclear Row - AFP
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 03:59:52 GMT
   to Iran indefinitely in line with global sanctions against Tehran's
   nuclear programme, the company said Wednesday.

   The world's largest carmaker has halted auto shipments to Iran since early
   June, "considering the international environment," Toyota said in a
   statement."Our company will continue to closely monitor the international
   situation," it said without elaborating.Toyota's auto shipments to Iran
   sharply declined to some 250 Land Cruiser four-wheel-drive and other
   vehicles in 2009 from 4,000 units in 2008. Toyota has exported 220 cars so
   far this year.The Nikkei business daily reported that Toyota's exports to
   Iran may not violate US sanctions, but the company had decided to stop
   shipments because "firms continuing to deal with Iran have come under
   scrutiny from the US government."North America is a key market for Toyota,
   with sales in the United States exceeding those in Japan. Toyota's North
   American sales jumped nearly 40 percent on year in the April-June
   quarter.The UN Security council adopted fresh sanctions in June against
   Iran's nuclear programme, while the US and the European Union have
   strengthened their own sanctions.In the United States, any business
   breaching the sanctions faces restricted access to the American market.
   Washington fears Iran is developing a nuclear arsenal under cover of its
   energy program, something Tehran denies.si/dwa/hg(Description of Source:
   Hong Kong AFP in English -- Hong Kong service of the independent French
   press agency Agence France-Presse)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   52) Back to Top
   Google Raided By Police on Privacy Violations - JoongAng Daily Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 01:07:57 GMT
   (JOONGANG ILBO) - Police raided the offices of Google Korea yesterday on
   suspicions that the Korean unit of the Internet search giant Google Inc.
   violated the country's communication privacy protection law.

   "We obtained a search warrant after we found evidence that, while Google
   Korea was creating Google Street View, it collected individuals'
   information from wireless networks without seeking their permission," said
   an investigator at the anti-cyberterrorism team of the National Police
   Agency.Sixteen investigators dispatched to Google Korea headquarters in
   Yeoksam, southern Seoul, yesterday morning confiscated computer hard disks
   and documents . The search ended at 5 p.m.Police plan to summon Google
   Korea officials who are responsible for the project after they finish
   examining the confiscated materials.Australian and German police have
   launched similar investigations into Google for violating privacy laws
   when the company has gathered information for Google Street View in those
   countries.Google Street View is a popular feature that offers panoramic
   views of street scenes in many cities around the world.Google initially
   launched the service in May 2007 for several cities in the United States
   and later expanded coverage to include other global cities.In Asia, Street
   View is currently available in some areas of Japan, Singapore, Taiwan,
   Hong Kong and Macau.Google's mapping service has been controversial as
   critics have argued that the search engine company does not pay enough
   attention to privacy issues when it collects data, which can include
   information gathered from public Wi-Fi networks.(Description of Source: S
   eoul JoongAng Daily Online in English -- Website of English-language daily
   which provides English-language summaries and full-texts of items
   published by the major center-right daily JoongAng Ilbo, as well as unique
   reportage; distributed as an insert to the Seoul edition of the
   International Herald Tribune; URL: http://joongangdaily.joins.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   53) Back to Top
   Japans Health Requires a New Relationship With Washington
   "Japans Health Requires a New Relationship With Washington" -- The Daily
   Star Headline - The Daily Star Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 01:28:13 GMT
   Wednesday, August 11, 2010

   Revolutions, it is often claimed, do not happen when people are
   desperate.They occur in times of rising expectations. Perhaps this is why
   they so oftenend in disappointment. Expectations, usually set too high to
   begin with, failto be met, resulting in anger, disillusion, and often in
   acts of terrifyingviolence.Japan-s change of government in 2009 - when the
   Democratic Party ofJapan (DPJ) broke the almost uninterrupted monopoly on
   power held by theLiberal Democratic Party (LDP) since 1955 - was not a
   revolution. But,rather like the election of the first black president of
   the United States, itwas fizzing with popular expectations, promising a
   fundamental shift from thepast.This was even truer of Japan than the
   United States. The DPJ not only put manynew faces into power, it was going
   to change the nature of Japanese politics.At last, Japan would become a
   fully functioning democracy, and not a de factoone-party state run by bu
   reaucrats.To judge from the Japanese press, as well as the DPJ-s plunging
   pollratings, disillusion has already set in. The permanent bureaucracy
   provedresistant, and DPJ politicians, unused to power, made mistakes. One
   of theworst was Prime Minister Naoto Kan-s announcement in June of
   aconsumption-tax hike just before the Upper House elections, which the DPJ
   wenton to lose badly.The other disappointment has been the government-s
   failure to get the USto move its Marine airbase out of Okinawa. This
   promise by the DPJ was meant tobe part of Japan-s new assertiveness, a
   first step away from being a mere'aircraft carrier' for the US, as a
   former LDP prime minister oncedescribed his country.If Japan-s status quo
   is to change, the country-s oddly skewedrelationship with the US is one
   key factor. Too much dependence on Americanpower has warped the
   development of Japanese democracy in ways that are notalways sufficiently
   recognized by the US.Japan-s one-party state, under the conserv ative LDP,
   was a product ofWorld War II and the Cold War. Like Italy, the old Axis
   partner during the war,Japan became a front-line state in the battle
   against Communist powers. And, asin Italy, a right-wing party, backed by
   the US, dominated politics for decadesin order to crush any chance for the
   left to take power. Even former Japanesewar criminals, one of whom became
   prime minister in the late 1950s, becamesubservient allies of the US in
   the wars (hot and cold) against Communism.In fact, Japanese dependence on
   the US was even greater than that of Italy andother European powers. West
   European armies were embedded in NATO. Japan, whosearmed forces were
   entirely blamed for driving the country into the catastrophicPacific war,
   was not even supposed to have an army or navy. During theiroccupation of
   Japan in the 1940s, Americans wrote a new pacifist Constitution,which made
   the use of Japanese military force abroad unconstitutional. Inmatters of
   war and peace, Japan abdicated its sovereignty.Most Japanese were happy to
   be pacifists and concentrate on making money.Japanese governments could
   devote their energy to building up thecountry-s industrial wealth, while
   the US took care of security, and byextension much of Japan-s foreign
   policy. It was an arrangement thatsuited everyone: the Japanese became
   rich, the Americans had a compliantanti-Communist vassal state, and other
   Asians, even Communist China, preferredPax Americana to a revival of
   Japanese military clout.But there was a steep political price to pay. A
   democracy that isover-dependent on an outside power, and monopolized by
   one party whose mainrole is to broker deals between big business and the
   bureaucracy, will becomestunted and corrupt.Italy, under the Christian
   Democrats, had the same problem. But the end of theCold War in Europe
   changed the political status quo - with mixed results,to be sure. Old
   parties lost power, which was a good thing. The vacuum wasfilled in Italy
   by the rise of Silvio Berlusconi, which may have been less of agood thing.
   In East Asia, by contrast, the Cold War is not yet entirely over.North
   Korea still causes trouble, and China is nominally a Communist state.But
   it is a very different world from the one left in ruins in 1945. For
   onething, China has become a great power, and Japan, like other Asian
   countries,must adapt to new circumstances. But, while it is the only Asian
   democracy ableto balance the power of China, the system established after
   World War II is notbest suited to this task.This was recognized by the
   DPJ, which would like Japan to play a moreindependent role, as a more
   equal ally, rather than a mere protectorate, of theUS, and thus be a more
   assertive political player in Asia. Hence, the firstsymbolic step was to
   get the US to move its Marines from Okinawa, an islandthat has carried the
   burden of a US military presence for much too long.The US did not see
   things that way. The DPJ threatened to change comfortableold ar
   rangements, whereby the US could tell the Japanese what to do. As aresult,
   the US showed little patience on the Okinawa question, and has
   barelyconcealed its contempt for the DPJ government, feeding popular
   disappointmentwith its performance.The US seems to prefer an obedient
   one-party state to a difficult, faltering,but more democratic partner in
   Asia. The Obama administration, struggling tofulfill its own promises of
   change, should be more understanding of itsJapanese counterpart. If the US
   is as serious about promoting freedom as itclaims, it should not be
   hindering one of its closest ally-s efforts tostrengthen its democracy.Ian
   Buruma is a professor of democracy and human rights at Bard College.
   Hislatest book is 'Taming the Gods: Religion and Democracy on
   ThreeContinents.' THE DAILY STAR publishes this commentary in
   collaborationwith Project Syndicate (c)
   (www.project-syndicate.org).(Description of Source: Beirut The Daily Star
   Online in English -- Website of the indep endent daily, The Daily Star;
   URL: http://dailystar.com.lb)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   54) Back to Top
   Bulgaria, World Bank Sign Memorandum on Infrastructure Development
   Cooperation
   "Prime Minister Borisov, World Bank Group President Sign Memorandum of
   Understanding for Stepping Up Cooperation in Infrastructure Development"
   -- BTA headline - BTA
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 16:06:17 GMT
   (Description of Source: Sofia BTA in English -- state-owned but
   politically neutral press agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permiss ion for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   55) Back to Top
   Somalia Daily Media Highlights 11 Aug 10 - Somalia -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 05:32:21 GMT
   AFP20100810517002 Kingstone Shacabka.net in Somali 07 Aug 10

   AU forces opened fire on a commuter bus in Mogadishu this morning. Two
   people were wounded after the Burundian troops deliberately opened fire on
   a commuter bus near the former Jale Siyad Military Academy in Mogadishu.

   Those injured included a woman and a young man and were rushed to Daynile
   Hospital, where one of them died, according to medical sources.

   It is important to remember that Burundi forces saved the lives of about
   30 civilians after the brakes o f a commuter bus failed and hit the bank
   in a previous incident. The Burundi soldiers treated the injured
   passengers on the bus.

   However, it is unclear why the peacekeepers opened fire on the vehicle
   carrying civilians. Ugandan peac ekeepers had, on several occasions,
   previously opened fire on public service vehicles in Mogadishu.

   (Description of Source: Kingstone Shacabka.net in Somali -- An independent
   website which seems to favor the Puntland regional administration.
   According to the website it aims to create "public awareness and
   disseminate factual reports that will eventually help the Somali public
   achieve maturity;" URL:

   http://shacabka.net/ http://shacabka.net )

   Somalia: Tension High in Gedo Region as Government, Allied Forces Plan To
   Attack

   AFP20100810517003 London Warsheekh.com in Somali 07 Aug 10

   Reports reaching us from Baardheere in Gedo Region (southwestern Somalia)
   say that there are military movements ongo ing in some parts of Buulo
   Xaawo and Dollow districts.

   The military movements are being conducted by forces loyal to the
   Transitional Federal Government of Somalia and Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jama'a
   group. The two forces are mobilizing themselves to attack the region.

   On the other hand, Al-Shabaab, which is in control of Gedo Region, has
   also been conducting military movements and preparing to fight the allied
   forces of the government and Ahlu Sunnah wal Jama'a, which are heading
   towards the region.

   A resident said that some of the residents of Buulo Xaawo town fled last
   night and crossed into Kenya, where they are expected to go to the refugee
   camps in the country.

   Tensions were high in Buulo Xaawo, Baardheere and Dollow towns last night.
   Area residents fear that the fighting between the two sides will affect
   them.

   Al-Shabaab has put its forces on high alert and is planning to deploy
   additional fighters to these areas.

   (Description of Sou rce: London Warsheekh.com in Somali -- Website run by
   pro-government moderate Islamist group Ahl-al-Sunnah wal-Jama'a; URL:

   http://www.warsheekh.com/ www.warsheekh.com )

   Clan elders accuse UN of fuelling violence in Somalia

   AFP20100810950068 Mogadishu Simba News.com in Somali 10 Aug 10

   Text of report by privately-owned Somali Radio Simba website on 10 August

   The Islamic council of Hawiye elders has strongly condemned the UN and
   accused it of being responsible for the problems in Somalia.

   The council's spokesman, Muhammad Ahmad Guled, who spoke to the press in
   Mogadishu, condemned the UN statement in which it announced that it will
   reopen its offices in Somalia, which remained closed for a period of more
   than a decade. He said that reopening of UN offices will worsen the
   current situation in the country.

   "The UN is behind the fighting in the country, if it (UN) relocates to
   Somalia, it will then bring the fighting even mor e closer (and worsen the
   violence)," said Muhammad Ahmad Guled.

   The UN is planning to reopen its offices in Somalia within two months.
   These offices will be opened at Mogadishu international airport controlled
   by the government.

   (Description of Source: Mogadishu Simba News.com in Somali -- Website of
   Mogadishu-based independent FM radio station; presents balanced reports;
   URL:

   http://www.simbanews.com/ http://www.simbanews.com )

   Al-Shabaab Orders Clan in Central Somalia to Recruit Fighters

   AFP20100810517005 London Warsheekh.com in Somali 07 Aug 10

   Clan in elders in the town of Jalalqsi (in central Somalia) are concerned
   about a request made Al-Shabaab which ordered them to recruit youths from
   their clans to take part in fighting alongside Al-Shabaab in the country.

   The order follows a three day meeting between Al-Shabaab officials and
   elders of Jalalqsi District. Al-Shabaab ordered the elders to bring youths
   from their c lans within a week. However, the group did not give the
   number of fighters they require.

   One of the elders in the district, who sought anonymity, said that many
   youths have fled the town after hearing the Al-Shabaab order requiring
   them to take pa rt in fighting.

   The youth fleeing Jalalqsi have been pouring into Mogadishu in the last 24
   hours. Some of them were planning to travel to Saudi Arabia, Kenya and
   Ethiopia. Most of these who fled Jalalqsi are farmers, herders, and
   students.

   This is not the first time that the few Somali youths that remain in the
   country have started fleeing. Al-Shabaab's call for the youth to take part
   in the fighting in Somalia has caused an increase in the number of youths
   fleeing the country.

   (Description of Source: London Warsheekh.com in Somali -- Website run by
   pro-government moderate Islamist group Ahl-al-Sunnah wal-Jama'a; URL:

   http://www.warsheekh.com/ www.warsheekh.com )

   Somalia: UN Reportedly 'Considering' To Maintain 'Light Presence' in
   Mogadishu

   AFP20100810599008 New York UN News Centre in English 09 Aug 10

   (Unattributed report: "UN Deliberating Possible 'Light Presence' in Somali
   Capital")

   With the African Union's peacekeeping mission in Somalia nearing its full
   capacity, the United Nation is now "seriously considering" the second of
   its three-part strategy in which the world body would have a light
   presence in the capital, Mogadishu, and other parts of the war-ravaged
   country, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said today.

   AMISOM, the mission, is close to reaching the target of 8,000 authorized
   personnel, as mandated by the Security Council, which is part of the first
   phase envisioned by Mr. Ban. That stage also includes helping build the
   capacity of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and training Somali
   troops and police.

   Before Augustine Mahiga, who recently took up the post of the
   Secretary-General's Special Representative, departed for Nairobi, Mr. Ban
   said the two men held discussions on the second phase, in which some UN
   personnel would be relocated to Mogadishu and other areas in Somalia.

   The UN Political Office for Somalia (UNPOS), headed by Mr. Mahiga, has
   been based in Nairobi due to security concerns.

   "At this time, (Mr. Mahiga) will take all necessary measures (for)
   staffing and to ensure safety," the Secretary-General told reporters in
   New York, adding that his envoy will have to coordinate closely with the
   UN Department of Safety and Security (DSS).

   Mr. Mahiga's predecessor, Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, told the Security Council
   last year that "our temporary presence in Nairobi has lasted far too long.
   We can only work effectively for peace with the Somalis and address
   pressing humanitarian needs if we are close to the victims of famine,
   violence and different abuses."

   He noted that the establishment in Mogadishu of a so-called Green Zone,
   similar to those elsewhere, could help facilitate this process.

   In a related development, the latest meeting of the Joint Security
   Committee (JSC), comprising Somali officials and interested partners,
   wrapped up yesterday in Nairobi, with participants welcoming AMISOM's
   renewed commitment to mentoring TFG forces.

   The meeting, chaired by Mr. Mahiga and Somali Prime Minister, Omar
   Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke, also ended with a recommendation that the
   international community gradually move its offices back to Mogadishu.

   (Description of Source: New York UN News Centre in English -- UN online
   news service; URL:

   http://www.un.org/news/ http://www.un.org/news/ )

   Somalia's Al-Shabab bans three NGO's

   AFP20100809950070 Mogadishu Shabeelle Media Network.net in Somali 09 Aug
   10

   Al-Shabab Islamic Movement has banned three international NGO's from
   operation in Somalia for preaching Christianity, Somalia's Shabeelle websi
   te reported on 9 August.

   "Three organizations have been banned from operating in the country and
   they are ADRA, World Vision and Diakonia", a letter issued by Al-Shabab
   office for foreign NGO's said, adding that the organizations have been
   involved in spreading Christianity a mong the Somali people.

   Al-Shabab said in the letter that ADRA organization was established by a
   church called Seventh-Day Adventist.

   "Diakonia NGO was established by five churches from Sweden and its aim is
   to preach Christianity" said Al-Shabab in its letter dated on 8 August.

   Al-Shabab has also accused World Vision of conveying Christianity messages
   to Somali children and families.

   (Description of Source: Mogadishu Shabeelle Media Network.net in Somali --
   Internet site of independent FM radio and television network based in
   Mogadishu; network claims an audience of more than 1.8 million; target
   audience includes Somalis in-country; diaspora; and S omalis in Kenya,
   Ethiopia, and Djibouti; policymakers working with international
   organizations; and the UN; site has partnership with Radio France
   International; URL:

   http://www.shabelle.net/ http://www.shabelle.net )

   Somali Islamists Ban Activities of International Christian Organizations

   AFP20100810527006 Baydhabo Radio Andalus in Somali 1000 GMT 08 Aug 10

   The Al-Shabaab Mujahidin Movement Office for monitoring humanitarian
   agencies has issued an order banning three infidel (international
   Christian) agencies which operate within Somalia. Our reporter Mohamed
   Hassan Tartiibsade has the details. Mohamed can you please tell us what it
   entails this order?

   (Begin Tartiibsase recording) Thank you, Abdikarim (Announcer). This order
   came from the Al-Shabaab monitoring office for the movement of foreign
   agencies known as OSOFA today issued the order banning the activities of
   three infidel agencies in Somalia that were working in various areas. The
   agencies include World Vision, ADRA (Adventist Development and Relief
   Agency) and DIKANIA (as heard). The office accused the agencies of
   engaging in activities against Islam and pure Somali traditions. The
   banning of these agencies followed investigations into the work of each of
   the agencies in the country. The office explained for instance that the
   World Vision agency is a Christian NGO that spreads the Christian faith
   and undertakes teaching and inculcation of the Christian faith to children
   and other social groups while it conceals its real intentions under the
   guise of a humanitarian organization. The office added that the agency
   works to propagate immorality within the Muslim society and therefore in
   order to save the people from this corruption, the office had decided to
   stop their work. World Vision has been one of the biggest organizations on
   the ground in Somalia, which prides itself in undertaking many activities
   in Somalia.

   (Announcer) OK tell us about the other two agencies?

   (Tartiibsade) The DIKANIA agency it consists of five Christian churches
   that aim to assist people affiliated to these churches. This organization
   came here to propagate Christianity and take advantage of the Somali
   people, who are in the war and in need of assistance. (End Recording)

   (Description of Source: Baydhabo Radio Andalus in Somali -- Al-Shabaab
   owned radio station)

   Somalia: Ethiopian Army Reported To Reach Bakool Region, Evacuate Dead,
   Wounded

   AFP20100806353001 Somali Memo in Somali 06 Aug 10

   (Unattributed report: "Hundreds of Troops in Ethiopian Army Come to the
   Rescue of Yeed District, Bakool")

   A critical situation and preparations for renewed fighting was reported
   this morning from the district of Yeed in Bakool region, where there was
   fighting recently between Al-Shabaab mujahidin and militias supported by
   Ethiopia.

   Reports coming from the district of Yeed say that the Et hiopian army
   consisting of hundreds of troops has reached the city to reinforce the
   Transitional Federal Government (TFG) militias.

   This Ethiopian army, which is pouring into the city of Yeed, is said to be
   participating in the evacuation of the injured and the dead after the
   recent fighting in the Baliga BM-Ka outside Yeed.

   Thousan ds of Al-Shabaab mujahidin forces are also in military movement at
   Rabdhuure district all the way to Ceelbarde district where the two armies
   are facing each other. People are afraid that a long battle may begin at
   the border between Somalia and the land of the western Somalis (Ethiopian
   Somalis).

   The Ethiopian army and the TFG militias have suffered great losses in the
   fighting that took place recently in the Baliga BM-Ka. It is clear that
   the Tigray government of Ethiopia does not have any hopes of taking
   control of new districts in the area.

   (Description of Source: Somali Memo in Somali; news website that updates
   da ily and reports news with a clear bias towards Somali terrorist group
   Al-Shabaab; URL:

   http://www.somalimemo.net/ www.somalimemo.net.)

   Somali Islamists recruited in USA, Europe travelled via Kenya - paper

   AFP20100810950050 Nairobi Nairobi Star in English 09 Aug 10

   Text of report headlined "US Islamists lived in Nairobi undetected"
   published by privately-owned Kenyan daily newspaper The Star on 9 August

   Thirteen newly-recruited American and European Al-Shabab Islamist militias
   lived in Nairobi undetected by authorities for three weeks in July.

   The young men from USA, Canada, Norway and Sweden answered a call from
   Al-Shabab's top hierarchy for fighters in the countdown to the Kampala
   bombing that killed close to 80 people on 11 July.

   The young men aged 18-25 barely speak Somali and are citizens and
   residents of USA, Canada, Norway and Sweden. They started arriving in
   Kenya on 2 July and lived in various lodgings in Nai robi's Eastleigh
   estate (mainly inhabited by Kenyan and immigrant Somalis).

   The group that the Star made contact with said Eastleigh was their
   convergence point where they kept low profiles to avoid being smoked out
   by security agencies.

   Our team tracked down the young men in Eastleigh and travelled with them
   from 27 July to Somali's Hargeysa region and on to Mogadishu where they
   were received by the Al-Shabab leaders. The recruits said the little they
   knew about Somalia was what they read from books and watched on
   television.

   The eldest among them was Jamal Abdi, a 25-year old Swedish national who
   was also their leader. Jamal, who has relatives in Nairobi South C Estate,
   revealed that the relatives were not aware that he was headed for Somalia
   to join the Al-Shabab brigade fighting the transitional government of
   President Shaykh Sharif Ahmad.

   "We are all here by our own will. No-one forced us. It is our religion
   that has called us to protect what's right and condemn what is wrong,"
   said Jamal.

   Abikar Mohammed, a 23-year-old US national, believes by joining Al-Shabab
   he was helping Somalia.

   "I have a chance to make a difference, I'm here to fight for my home
   country and protect Islam, protect the women and children who are every
   day killed by the Amisom (African Union Mission in Somalia) troops, the
   Western-backed army meant to finish Islam from the face of the earth,"
   said Abikar, who is from Minneapolis.

   Amisom is the acronym for the African Union Mission in Somalia.

   According to Abikar, the new recruits paid for their own air fare to Kenya
   and Somalia. Those who did not have money were funded by Somali elders in
   their mosques back home.

   "We travelled individually; some of us came in groups of five or three and
   we had one person we were meant to contact when we got to Nairobi. He has
   been very helpful to us. The elders told us that young people are needed
   back home to defend Islam and our birthplace where we left some of our
   family members," said Abikar.

   Abikar said that when they landed in Nairobi, they were taken to different
   hotels by their contact person. In the night, they would meet at the
   contact's house to go over their plans to travel to Mogadishu.

   Another member, 19-year-old Abdirahman Gullet, said that although he was
   an American citizen, he never felt quite at home in the US because of
   discrimination against him and other Somali Americans.

   Nuno Ahmed, 18, lives in California. While travelling from Nairobi to
   Hargeisa, he said he was willing to die for the Al-Shabab.

   "I do not care if I will die as long as I know am dying for the right
   cause and that's fighting tooth and nail for my religion," said Nuno.

   His family back in California has no idea where he is, he told us.

   "They don't understand. My mother says that Al-Shabab does not fight for
   Islam but sh e is wrong. We have lived in the Western world so much that
   most of us are getting lost. We're fighting for the same religion. We know
   we are hated by the international community, but Al-Shabab has its own
   structure and strict rules and it is Islam," said Nuno.

   Omar Hassan, 22, went to Canada through family members who had emigrated
   there earlier.Omar said that Al-Shabab is not a terror group but one that
   is meant to make sure that shari'ah law is observed.

   "This is a holy war and all the young people who have died before us have
   done that for the sake of religion," he said.

   Adan Hussein, 24, also from Minneapolis, said he did not care to return to
   his family in Minneapolis.

   "I was idle back home; this is a chance for me to make the difference,"
   said Adan.

   (Description of Source: Nairobi Nairobi Star in English)

   Muslim Body Says RSA Troops in Somalia To Back US 'Chosen' Government 'Bad
   Move'

   AFP2010081 0532001 Cape Town Voice of the Cape in English 1443 GMT 29 Jul
   10

   (Telephone interview with the Dr. Faizel Suliman of the South African
   Muslim Network (SAMNET) by VOC announcer Shafiq Morton on the "Drive Time"
   program -- live)

   (Voice of the Cape presenter Shafiq Morton) South Africa will possibly be
   sending peacekeeping troops to Somalia, that strife-torn part of Africa.
   The record, and what happens to peacekeeping troops in certain parts of
   the world is not always a happy story and it doesn't always have very good
   implications for the countries involved -- Uganda will certainly testify
   to that one (passage as heard). On the line to tell us what he feels about
   this is Dr Faizel Suliman, from an organization called SAMNET. Dr Faizel
   Suliman, as salaam alaikum.

   (Suliman) Wa alaikum assalam Wa Rahmatullahi Wa Barakatahu, and thank you
   for having me, Shafiq.

   (Morton) The pleasure is ours. Just very quickly, who is SAMNET? I said on
   anothe r interview, you get KykNet, Spoornet, MNET, you get lots of nets,
   but SAMNET, that's a new one. Tell us, who exactly is SAMNET?

   (Suliman) Well, the South African Muslim Network has been around for about
   two years, formed by a whole host of (words indistinct) in Durban.

   (Morton) Sorry, Dr. Suliman, could you just talk directly into your
   mouthpiece, you are fading here and there.

   (Suliman) I think it is the cold. Okay. It was formed as a representative
   network of Muslim organizations and bodies, we haven't rolled it out
   extensively, mainly due to a lack of resources, but if you look perhaps on
   the website, you will get an idea of its mission statement and vision and
   what participants it has. Primarily, it has been involved in media and
   political analysis and the public relations development community, in the
   mainstream media. Some of it has been a bit of a watchdog function, but
   others have been, you know, watching part of a story, looking at
   alternativ es, art and cultural stuff that doesn't get presented about the
   Muslim world in the mainstream press, and we have been trying to do some
   of that.

   (Morton) What organizations have actually come onboard to SAMNET? It
   seems, if I'm looking at it from a distance, it seems to be very much a
   youth kind of orientated set-up.

   (Suliman) It certainly has a good mixture of traditionally older people,
   and certainly, lots of young people. We have had cooperation from the
   charity organizations like Gift of the Givers, Al-Imdaad Foundation, the
   Minara Chamber of Commerce, Vision 20-20, Muslim Vision. We have had some
   dealings with, or cooperation with the MJC (Muslim Judicial Council), the
   Al-Quds Foundation, the Media Review Network. So we have been trying to
   interact. And then of course many of the Halaal bodies, and then in
   particular then we have in Durban, we have the Al-Ansaar Foundation, the
   Al-Ansaar radio stations, the Al-Qalam newspapers. A lot of the work, you
   know , media and public relations are not the in your face stuff that you
   see us presenting in the open, for example, the work that we would do if
   we had a feature on 702. A lot of it is behind the scenes work. It is not
   out there in the open.

   (Morton) And your organization, I think, is the one that has said that
   Muslim journalists working within the Muslim milieu need to be paid fair
   wages.

   (Suliman) Oh, absolutely. Yes. We cannot hope to improve both the scope
   and the professional challenge that is within the community. One can make
   the same argument for Imams and people who speak in the Madrassas, and
   hope for a better crop of people to enter the profession. If it is seen as
   a grudging, well I have talent, then we all complain (indistinct words)
   rapidly. But absolutely. I think if you want to develop this category, it
   has to be commensurate with what is in the market. (passage as heard)

   (Morton) I've seen a lot of talented people, for example, pass throug h
   Voice of the Cape, and we have to be very honest about these things
   because I think the community also needs to know these things; and if you
   work within Muslim media, whether it's print, radio or wherever it is, as
   a Muslim journalist, you are going to be paid peanuts and that's the
   bottom line. And one sees so many talents not being able to stay within
   this framework. They have to go elsewhere to get their work. I'm sure
   you'll agree, that is a real waste, isn't it?

   (Suliman) Oh absolutely, Shafiq. You asked me why we aren't able to roll
   out, and I argued a lack of resources. I mean, strangely enough, if I went
   to the community and said I work in KwaMashu, a township in Johannesburg
   and I want 100,000 for blankets or giving our grants or for pillows or to
   build a little Madrassa, really I would literally collect it in a day. But
   when I go out and say listen, give money so that I can hire a journalist
   and secure public relations. I mean, I am a doctor, I am a pro fessional,
   what do I know about the media? But the point is, you go out there and
   tell the community you need money for lobbying public relations or the
   development of journalists in these fields, really there are still a lot
   of people with their heads in the sand, and I couldn't agree with you
   more.

   (Morton) And of course, it is the best way to fight the scenario of
   Islamophobia, although we don't have it badly in South Africa at all I
   must say. As a Muslim community in South Africa in my travels, I reckon we
   have the best but it's still absolutely critical. I'm sure you'll agree
   that we have to have professional communicators at the coalface. And how
   many times have we shot ourselves in the foot just in the last year when
   people representing us simply cannot talk to the media?

   (Suliman) Oh absolutely, I couldn't agree more and it's going to happen,
   and one of the concerns we will get to now when we speak about Somalia, it
   is just going to take a nutcracker or a fall flat operation to turn the
   lives of Muslims upside down, or whatever we take for granted, as we say,
   anyone who has been to Europe and look at the paranoia with which Muslims
   are treated. It doesn't take much for civil liberties to fly out of the
   window. And it's not just to interact with the Western media and
   non-Muslims. The fact is, if we are going to hope to raise the level of
   discourse in our communities and move away from the sort of traditional
   role that we keep discussing that don't take us forward, we have to
   improve the quality of the print and the journalists. So it is both for
   our interaction, as you say, interacting in the Islam ophobia scenario,
   but also within our own communities. Journalists, who are so good that
   they command some sort of respect, and you know, whatever newspaper, can't
   just get rid of them or pay them peanuts because they are influential, and
   influential because their work is good and not just because they have a
   large Muslim suppo rt.

   (Morton) Indeed. I mean, at the end of the day, journalism is a trade, and
   if you don't deliver the goods, well, you go down the tubes basically.
   Let's have a look at the scenario - okay, we've dealt with the media
   landscape, but of course, Somalia I would say is quite a victim of it. You
   have a take that sending South African peacekeeping troops to Somalia, is
   it a good idea or is it a bad idea?

   (Suliman) No, we think it is not a good idea. Basically, some sort of
   background--as people know, look, there is lots of oil, there is Uranium.
   I mean one looks at Somalia and you think it is barren land, but it isn't.
   It is ironically blessed with minerals, the resources, with livestock,
   with land that is very arable. It is also strategically located in the
   Gulf of Aden. I mean we know now of the pirates who have been able to take
   these huge oil tankers, so are the implications of a strategic location. I
   think people will know, Shafiq, that you had a proxy with t he United
   States and with Ethiopia for quite some time now. There was a whole move
   to eradicate the court movement (Union of Islamic Courts) and whatever
   else, they have been called different sorts of names. Now if anyone
   disagrees with the obscure manner in which they a ccepted some of the
   Shariah rules, I mean a lot them are more inclined towards how the Taliban
   adapted some of the rules. The point is they don't deserve to be occupied
   and they don't deserve what has been happening to them. The nature of this
   cloak and dagger stuff is this horrendous bomb that you referred to in
   Uganda with the World Cup final that killed over 70 people and
   subsequently Uganda saying that they may have to withdraw their troops
   from there, and they urge to get the African Union, and South Africa
   included, to send our troops there. Our concerns are two-fold. One, South
   Africa, morally, has a high ground. We have a good role diplomatically
   that can be played in Sudan or the ICC. Possibly, it c ould have the moral
   high ground and neutral stance to look at negotiating a settlement in
   Somalia. Once you send troops there, I think, you lose a lot of that
   neutral role. Secondly, one really doesn't know in this day and age
   whether it was Al-Shabaab or whether it was a third force that planted
   that horrific bomb in Uganda. And we know when these things happen - in
   Madrid, London, New York, the anger, the hysteria and, of course, the
   political opportunism it presents, is for the liberty (words indistinct).
   Now you have South African troops there, where they are directly in
   Somalia, some nutcracker or some third force operation takes place in
   South Africa that targets, God forbid, a high-ranking political or
   something like that. What you have mentioned, the comfort with which we
   practice religion in this country, immediately there would be a public
   outcry and a hysterical outcry in the media and you would have a lot of
   these social liberties that we take for granted, possi bly fly out of the
   window with essentially an whole anti-terror bill and we will see Muslims'
   lives change drastically, the freedom with which you can give a lecture at
   a Masjid will change. So, I think from all of these points, we all
   certainly think it is appropriate that South Africa can choose how to
   maintain the status quo, which is essentially what I refer to, and that is
   America fighting a proxy war in Somalia. I think we should be sending
   messages to government that we really think government should be serious.
   And, of course, we have budgetary constraints here as well that we need to
   be looking at. We would feel that the potential for bombs by Al-Shabaab,
   you know, today, Shafiq, it is so easy to label someone al-Qa'ida-linked
   and then you don't have to prove anything, you just claim that they are
   terrorists and then you can go and bomb them. The label of
   al-Qa'ida-linked is something that is so widely used, but with very little
   proof and we know that a lot of the i ntelligence is flawed. So we really
   would be urging caution here.

   (Morton) So you're saying in essence that in Somalia peace has to be
   defined there first, because what we have at the moment is that South
   African troops are going into a scenario where peace hasn't quite been
   defined, where in fact law and order and peace are defined as a status quo
   that doesn't really meet the approval of many of the citizens of the
   country that's concerned.

   (Suliman) Oh absolutely. What I refer to now, Al-Shabaab or the insurgents
   or the fundamentalists are people who haven't been at war, they are people
   who just didn't want the occupation of their country and a de facto
   US-backed government, and took up the resistance. Like I said, whatever
   one thinks of the religious affiliation or religious interpretation, that
   country does not deserve to be occupied, nor does it deserve to be run by
   what essentially would be Western chosen, an American chosen government.
   So if you go ther e preserving, it's like sending peacekeeping troops into
   Gaza, you are exactly preserving the status quo and making it easy on the
   occupier. We think it would be morally, diplomatically and strategically a
   bad move.

   (Morton) What do you think should actually be the short term solution in
   Somalia to try and get, I don't just like using the words, l a w and
   order, that can be interpreted any way that one wants, even peace, but to
   get a situation on the ground where the Somalians themselves can start to
   work towards a normal lifestyle and a normal political dispensation.
   What's the first step?(Suliman) The first step is to stop having American
   drones directly bombing Somalia and supplying Ethiopians with arms to
   defend, and to have a withdrawal of the Ethiopian troops. I think once you
   have that, then one can talk about a peacekeeping neutral force in there
   to maintain some sort of stability and law and order and then work to a
   constitutional process. That cannot happe n as long as you have foreign
   troops there, armed, supplied and funded by the United States.

   (Morton) My final question. Do you think that the world also needs to sit
   up and ask why do we have Somalian pirates? I've been told by numerous
   commentators the reason why a lot of the Somalis have resorted to piracy
   is because European countries have been using their seas as a dumping
   ground for toxic waste and that fishing fleets from Europe have come and
   depleted their waters.

   (Suliman) Yes, they have. No, absolutely, especially at the height of
   piracy - certainly that is true. It still doesn't justify piracy and
   taking hostages, but yes, there is a rationalization to it. Some of it is
   pure criminality. I don't think we can dispute that. There is a definite
   element of criminality. But you are absolutely right, particularly if you
   talk about the fishing, they have been fished out completely. A lot of
   them live off fishing, they can't do that anymore and so they res ort to
   piracy.

   (Morton) Let's hope that the Somalian situation does have a happy ending.
   I think the people of Somalia long deserve that. It's been hell for too
   many decades. Dr Faizel Suliman from SAMNET advising that his organization
   doesn't think it's a good idea for the South African Government to send
   so-called peacekeepers to Somalia at the moment. Dr Faizel Suliman, it's
   been a pleasure.

   (Description of Source: Cape Town Voice of the Cape in English -- Muslim
   community radio station controlled by the Muslim Judicial Council of South
   Africa)

   Ethiopia: Somali Team Discusses Peace, Development Issue With Diaspora in
   US

   AFP20100810597008 Addis Ababa Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in
   English 10 Aug 10

   (Unattributed report: "Gov't Delegation Holds Discussion With Somali State
   Diaspora")

   Somali State Diaspora in Minnesota, and Somali State government delegation
   led by Abdifitah Sheik Abdullahi, Chairman of the Somali People Democratic
   Party (SPDP), held a historic meeting on August 8, 2010 in Minneapolis to
   renew their commitment to the peace and development of the Somali State.

   Among the hundreds of participants of the conference were scholars,
   students, numerous business individuals, and laypersons from almost every
   county in the State of Minnesota.

   The Minneapolis Conference fully supported the peace accord signed on
   07/29/2010 by the Ethiopian Government and the United Western Somali
   Liberation Front (UWSLF), and the ongoing peace talks between the
   Government and the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), in which
   Abdifitah has contributed a lot to its success.

   The participants discussed ways and means by which their people in the
   region could achieve peace, good governance and development.

   Participants vehemently welcomed the government's peace program, which is
   open to all armed opposition groups in Somali State that shun violence and
   respect the cons titution of the country and are willing to join in
   building a peaceful Somali State.

   They also expressed their support for the government's willingness to talk
   to every opposition group about peace.

   Good governance is the base of the strategy to achieve stability and
   prosperity in Somali State and improvement in this area should not only
   increase the confidence of the people in Somali State in their own future,
   but also strengthen security improvements and economic and social
   development, the participants said.

   Somali State Diaspora praised the various activities made by Somali State
   government in order to ensure good governance.

   Participants greatly welcomed both the Federal and State governments
   integrated development agenda in Somali State, which is focused on broad
   based economic growth driven by the region's priority programs on
   agriculture and rural development, human resources development and
   infrastructure development.

   They further emphasized that success of these areas depend on the creation
   of a strong enabling environment for private sector investment, including
   public and private partnerships in social and economic development.

   Participants recognized that the development challenges facing the region
   require considerable investments and the mobilization of financial
   resources from Somali State Diaspora.

   Finally, the participants congratulated the newly elected President of
   Somali State, Abdi Mohamud Omar. Somali State Diaspora in Minnesota
   applauded the huge contributions made in the region's peace and security
   by President Abdi Mohamud Omar, and SPDP Chairman, Abdifitah Sheik
   Abdullahi. Participants acknowledged their role in building peaceful and
   prosperous Somali State.

   (Description of Source: Addis Ababa Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
   in English -- Website of the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs; URL:

   http://www.mfa.gov.et/ http:/ /www.mfa.gov.et/ )
   Hijacked Panama-flagged ship said carrying weapons for Somali Islamists

   AFP20100810950020 Asmara OSC Translation on Sub-Saharan Africa in Tigrigna
   08 Aug 10

   Text of report by Eritrean opposition Assenna.com website on 8 August

   A Panama-flagged ship carrying a variety of weapons was hijacked on 2
   August 2010 on its was from Pakistan to Eritrea, according to internal
   sources.

   It has been learnt that the ship, MV-Suez, owned by an Egyptian company
   called "Shark-Gat", was hijacked at 5:30 a.m. (local time) on 2 August in
   the Gulf of Aden.

   Although the Eritrean government is claiming that the ship was ferrying
   construction materials, sources privy to the issue say the ship was
   carrying modern anti-aircraft missiles, explosives and time bombs sent
   from Iran to Al-Shabab (radical Somali Islamist group fighting to
   overthrow the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia).

   It has been confirmed that the ship, whose hijackers are y et to be known,
   was in contact with a member of the Central Command of the Eritrean Navy,
   Brig-Gen Ftsum Gebrehiwet. It was supposed to offload its cargo in Massawa
   (in eastern Eritrea), after which the weapons would have been channelled
   to Al-Shabab which carried out terror attacks in Kampala, Uganda, and
   areas bordering Kenya (and Somalia) in recent months.

   Al-Shabab, referred to as (Alliance for the) Re-liberation of Somalia by
   the Eritrean government, is said to have close links with Al-Qa'idah.

   (The Eritrean state media reported this week that the cargo ship was
   carrying construction materials from Pakistan to Eritrea, and "more
   details will be provided in due course").

   Thai Navy Joins Effort To Suppress Piracy in Somalia, To Send Ships to UN,
   US

   SEP20100810145011 Bangkok Bangkok Post Online in English 10 Aug 10

   (By Online reporters: "Thai Navy to join piracy suppression")

   (Text disseminated as received witho ut OSC editorial intervention)

   The Thai navy is prepared to sent two ships to join the United Nations and
   the United States in the suppression of piracy in Somalia, said navy chief
   Admiral Kamthorn Poomhiran.

   He said the navy is ready in terms of personnel and equipment for the
   mission, but is still waiting for cabinet approval.

   A source said the navy is interested in taking part in the suppression to
   gain experience in an international peace-keeping role. Moreover, Thai
   ships had earlier been hijacked by the Somali pirates.

   Meanwhile, Col Sithichai Makkunchorn, the spokesman of the Royal Thai
   Armed Forces Command, said it was reported to a meeting of the armed
   forces commanders on Monday about the army's preparations to dispatch Task
   Force 980, a battalion or about 800 of troops, to Darfur, Sudan, to serve
   on the United Nations' peace-keeping mission.

   Weapons and equipment will be transported by boat to Sudan on Sept 1. They
   are expected to arrive in Mukja on Sept 25.

   The first group of 397 soldiers will leave for Sudan on a chartered flight
   on Oct 25 and the second group of 400 on Nov 23.

   (Description of Source: Bangkok Bangkok Post Online in English -- Website
   of a daily newspaper widely read by the foreign community in Thailand;
   provides good coverage on Indochina. Audited hardcopy circulation of
   83,000 as of 2009. URL:

   http://www.bangkokpost.com/ http://www.bangkokpost.com.)

   PUNTLAND Somali Islamist Radio Reports Heavy Fighting in Puntland's
   Galgala Mountains

   AFP20100810527007 Baydhabo Radio Andalus in Somali 1000 GMT 08 Aug 10

   Heavy fresh fighting today broke out between the mujahidin militia led by
   Shaykh Muhammad Said Atom and the apostate militia of Puntland state
   (REFERENCE to troops loyal to the government the regional state of
   Puntland) in the Galgala Mountains. The fresh fighting followed an attack
   carried by the apostate militia group that works for th e Christian
   government of Ethiopia, which suffered heavy casualties. Our reporter
   Muhammad Hasan Tartiibsade has the details.

   (Begin Recording)(Tartiibsade) Reports coming from Galgala mountains say
   the fighting erupted this morning in eastern Boosaaso between the apostate
   militia group, led by Abdurrahman Faroole (Puntland president), and the
   forces of Galgala area (Islamist forces). This morning at around 4:00 am
   the fighting erupted between the two sides, which used all kind of weapons
   in the fighting. A senior official of the mujahidin side (Islamists),
   whose name remains undisclosed, confirmed that they bunt two vehicles and
   captured one. He added that they killed 10 militiamen while the rest ran
   to Boosaaso town. The Puntland militia retreated and many of their
   militiamen were captured by the mujahidin. Ten names of the captured
   militia were given to reporters. They are Ahmad Ali Musse, the head of
   corruption, Mustafa Gurey, an army inspector, Mohamed Dhe ere and Jamaal
   Ciise Kaar, whose titles were not mentioned, as well as Ali Musse, an
   inspector, Muhammad Jaamac Ahmad Yusuf, a driver of a wagon known as Abdi
   Bile, Muhammad Elmi, Farah Xooje and other officials of Puntland. Report
   say the fighting inched closer to Boosaaso town where the apostate militia
   suffered serious casualties, which were not reported on the mujahidin
   side. The president of Puntland and his militia rejected an effort by
   elders to reconcile the two sides and opted to attack the mujahidin in
   Galgala area. There have, however, not been independent reports from the
   apostate militia and this is the second fighting between the apostate
   militia and mujahidin fighters, who have not hidden their intention to
   apply the Islamic sharia. (End recording)

   (Description of Source: Baydhabo Radio Andalus in Somali -- Al-Shabaab
   owned radio station)

   Somalia: Puntland Forces Capture Galgala Area From Rival Islamist Group

   AFP20100810517001 Shanghai Miisaanka.com in Somali 09 Aug 10

   Puntland forces have officially taken over all the areas where they fought
   with Shaykh Atam's fighters yesterday (8 August). Independent sources say
   that the entire Galgala locality is currently in the hands of Punltand
   forces.

   The report regarding the capture of the locality was also quoted by the
   Puntland forces.

   Shaykh Atam's forces, which suffered a big blow yesterday, made no
   resistance this morning.

   Puntland forces were ordered not to make any halt in their offensive
   against Shaykh Atom's fighters until they drive them out of their
   hideouts. Puntland forces are still chasing the scattered Atam's fighters
   who are said to be hiding in the mountains and valleys in the area.

   Shaykh Atam's group are anti-peace and said to be connected to Al-Shabaab,
   which is linked to international terrorism and caused trouble in southern
   Somalia.

   (Description of Source: Shanghai Miisaanka.com in Somali -- Pro Ah l
   al-Sunnah group website which usually criticizes Diaspora Somali clerics
   for allegedly supporting radical Islamists in Somalia; URL:

   http://www.miisaanka.com/ http://www.miisaanka.com )

   Somali Islamist vow to fight Puntland forces despite losing ground

   AFP20100810950064 Dayniile online in Somali 10 Aug 10

   Text of report by Swedish-based Somali Dayniile website on 10 August

   The cleric fighting Puntland forces, Shaykh Muhammad Sa'id Atam, has for
   the first time spoken about the fighting at his former base, and said that
   his fighters have surrounded the mountains in Galgala locality, in
   northeastern Somalia.

   He said that Puntland forces accompanied by three Americans destroyed a
   (Islamic) library in Galgala and even took picture of the library. He said
   that the three Americans were part of what he described as part of
   counter-terrorism.

   Shaykh Atam said that Puntland forces are causing suffering to the
   residents of Galgala loca lity and even tortured some of the locals and
   burnt farms in the area.

   He said that his fighters will recapture Galgala and will continue the
   fighting until leaders, who are opposed to the interest of Puntland
   people, are driven out of the regional administration. He said these
   leaders include President Abdirahamn Muhammad Farole and his deputy
   Abdisamad Ali Shire, whom he said work for the enemy of Islam.

   Shaykh Atam said that he lost one fighter and three others were wounded,
   adding that his group inflicted loses comprising of soldiers and armoured
   vehicles to Puntland forces. (Passage indistinct)

   It is unclear what impact will the statement made by Shaykh Atam would
   have on the fighting in the area at a time when Puntland forces have taken
   over Galgala locality from his fighters.

   (Description of Source: Dayniile online in Somali -- Swedish based, news
   oriented website that appears sympathetic to Somali Islamist insurgents;
   URL:

   http://ww w.daynille.com/ http://www.daynille.com )

   Somalia's Puntland forces conduct operations in Islamists' captured
   hideout

   AFP20100810950083 Dayniile online in Somali 10 Aug 10

   Text of report by Swedish-based Somali Dayniile website on 10 August

   Latest reports from Galgala locality, where Puntland forces and the
   fighters of Shaykh Muhammad Sa'id Atam clashed, say that Puntland forces
   have been conducting security operations after capturing the area from
   Atam's fighters yesterday.

   Puntland forces were seen in the mountains surrounding Galgala locality
   which is located on the outskirts of Puntland's commercial town of
   Boosaaso. Puntland soldiers have been conducting security operations since
   this morning after Shakyh Atam's fighters left the area.

   Puntland forces are said to be accompanied by top officials of the
   regional administration and the commanders of Puntland paramilitary force
   and PIS (Puntland Intelligence Service). PIS is respons ible for fighting
   what is described as terrorists and is supported by the US government. It
   is also the most powerful force in Puntland.

   Puntland officials currently in Galgala locality told the media that no
   arrest has been made so far following the capture of the area from Shaykh
   Atam's fighters. The officials said that they will beef up security in the
   area to ensure that anti-Puntland forces do no return to the area.

   (Description of Source: Dayniile online in Somali -- Swedish based, news
   oriented website that appears sympathetic to Somali Islamist insurgents;
   URL:

   http://www.daynille.com/ http://www.daynille.com )

   Somalia: Minister Urges Moderate Islamic Group, Galmudug To Help Fight
   Islamists

   AFP20100810301001 Markacadey.net in Somali 09 Aug 10

   The interim Somali government has called on Ahlu Sunnah wal Jama'a and the
   Galmudug (regional) administration to assist the Puntland government in
   the fighting taking place in Galgala lo cality.

   Minerals and Water Resources Minister Abdi Hasan Awale Qeybdid, speaking
   at a news conference, said the Galmudug administration and Ahlu Sunnah wal
   Jama'a ought to take part in the Islamist-Puntland fighting. The minister
   expressed full confidence in the ability of the Puntland government and
   its people to defeat what he called anti-peace elements, in reference to
   Islamists fighting the Puntland government.

   Minireals and Water Resources Minister Abdi Hasan Awale Qeybdid's
   statement came amid an eruption of fighting between Islamist forces headed
   by a cleric named Muhammad Sa'id Atam and the Puntland government.

   (Description of Source: Markacadey.net in Somali -- Independent news
   website; URL:

   http://www.markacadey.net/ http://www.markacadey.net )

   Somalia: Puntland Forces Pursue Shaykh Atam, Forces in Galgala Area

   AFP20100810517004 Kingstone Shacabka.net in Somali 07 Aug 10

   Puntland forces are conducting the biggest mil itary movement at Galgala
   Mountains, where there is fear of war breaking out. A strong force was
   deployed in the mountainous localities of Galgala, where Shaykh Atam, who
   has a large number of militants, is hiding.

   A senior commander of Puntland forces inspected the areas where the
   soldiers have been deployed in the past few hours. The Puntland soldiers
   are armed with armoured vehicles and heavy artillery.

   The soldiers are said to be moving towards to the large mountainous area.
   Confrontation between the two sides can erupt at any time.

   The specific area where Shaykh Atam and his fighters are stationed within
   the mountains is unknown; however, it is believed that they are based in
   the mountains between Sanaag and Bari regions.

   The president of Puntland announced that his government will carry out a
   major offensive against the group loyal to Shaykh Atam and said that
   Puntland forces will kill them in the mountainous areas, where the group
   organiz ed the war against Puntland.

   (Description of So urce: Kingstone Shacabka.net in Somali -- An
   independent website which seems to favor the Puntland regional
   administration. According to the website it aims to create "public
   awareness and disseminate factual reports that will eventually help the
   Somali public achieve maturity;" URL:

   http://shacabka.net/ http://shacabka.net )

   Somalia: Puntland Vice-President Vows To Crush Islamist Leader Atam

   AFP20100810532008 Kingstone Shacabka.net in Somali 09 Aug 10

   The vice-president of Puntland, the current general commander of Puntland
   forces taking part in the Galgala offensive, Gen Abdisamad Ali Shire, has
   vowed to crush the group leader Shaykh Atam.

   Speaking in Boosaaso, the vice-president vowed to conclude the offensive
   against Shaykh Atam's group hiding in Galgala Mountains soon. He said that
   Puntland forces killed many fighters loyal to Shaykh Atam and boasted that
   they are still pursuing the remnants of Atam's fighters.

   He said that that Puntland forces are aware of where Shaykh Atam was
   hiding and stressed they would capture him soon.

   Gen Abdisamad further said that their fighting had began with victory
   adding that they will conclude the operation of getting rid of the
   supporters of the Shaykh Atam.

   Tension is still high in the area and it is feared that it might take
   another dimension following statements made by the clan of Shaykh Atam.

   (Description of Source: Kingstone Shacabka.net in Somali -- An independent
   website which seems to favor the Puntland regional administration.
   According to the website it aims to create "public awareness and
   disseminate factual reports that will eventually help the Somali public
   achieve maturity;" URL:

   http://shacabka.net/ http://shacabka.net )

   Somalia: Puntland Leader Urges Residents to Report Secret Meetings

   AFP20100810517006 Kingstone Shacabka.net in Som ali 07 Aug 10

   Puntland Regional Administration President Abdirahman Muhammad Farole has
   called on the residents of Puntland to inform the authorities' about
   people who hold secret meeting with children. He also urged them to report
   if they see two people holding a suspicious discussion.

   The president who was speaking in a Mosque in Garowe, urged the local
   residents to call the telephones numbers on public service vehicles, in
   case they see youth holding meetings or two people holding discussions.

   The president lashed out at clerics and teachers of Koran Schools and
   warned them that action will be taken against them if they do not stop
   holding meetings with children.

   "Report to the authorities when you see gatherings being held for children
   in temporary shelters known as Koran School where they are being taught
   terrorism ideology. Likewise, inform the police and security officers if
   you see two people holding suspicious meetings. We will so on establish
   hotline numbers which every person can call," said the president.

   He said that Puntland forces will soon attack Galgala area and urged the
   public to evacuate their children from the area.

   The president denied that they were fighting a clan based in Galgala and
   said that the clan does not have a black flag. He stressed that they were
   fighting terrorists.

   The statement by the president is the strongest he has made of late. He
   made the statement at a time when his government is unable to fight the
   prominent cleric called Shaykh Atam.

   (Description of Source: Kingstone Shacabka.net in Somali -- An independent
   website which seems to favor the Puntland regional administration.
   According to the website it aims to create "public awareness and
   disseminate factual reports that will eventually help the Somali public
   achieve maturity;" URL:

   http://shacabka.net/ http://shacabka.net )

   Somalia: Puntland Security Authori ties Impose Ban on Carrying of Weapons

   AFP20100809631012 Boosaa so Radio Horseed in Somali 1130 GMT 07 Aug 10

   The Nugaal Regional administration in Garowe town, the capital of
   Puntland, have imposed a new order that bans carrying of weapons within
   the town. Our reporter Ajman Ahmed Ciise Turabi has the details.

   (Begin Reporting) (Turabi) The government security committee of Puntland
   has introduced the law banning the carrying of weapons within the town.
   The Nugaal administrator Abdi Xirsi Cali Qarjab said that the aim of this
   action was to ensure the security of the Garowe district of Nugaal region.

   (Qarjab) The aim of this action is to tighten security in this region and
   to counter all insecurity incidents. Can you tell if everybody takes his
   own gun and we don't know who is on duty and who is not? That is what we
   are avoiding completely.

   (Turabi) He added that legal action will be taken against whoever breaks
   this order.

   (Qarjab) Whoever is caught breaking the order will be disarmed and taken
   into custody if he doesn't obey the order.

   (Turabi) This order follows the meeting over this issue in Garowe, the
   capital of Puntland. (End recording).

   (Description of Source: Boosaaso Radio Horseed in Somali - independent)

   SOMALILAND Somaliland Elders Call on Government To Pull Its Forces Out of
   Buuhoodle

   AFP20100810517007 London BBC Somali.com in Somali 09 Aug 10

   Somaliland Defense Minister Ahmad Haji Ali Adami said that the government
   has not reached any decision to change the current Somaliland military
   strategy regarding its forces present in Buuhoodle District of Sool
   Region, eastern Somaliland.

   Adami's statement follows an interview made by traditional leaders
   including sultans from Togdheer and Buuhoodle who concluded a meeting in
   Xadh-xadhan locality between Coodninle and Buuhoodle. The elders issued
   resolution calling for the pull-out of Somaliland forces ou t of Buuhoolde
   area.

   The minister said that although the government supports the efforts made
   on the crucial peace talks, it is important for them to submit their views
   and advise to the government since it is the final decision maker that
   could execute any decision.

   Among the sultans that took part in the meeting held in Xadh-xadhka were
   Sultan Sa'id Usman Ali, who is among the traditional elders from
   Buuhoodle, and who explained to (BBC's) Abdinur Shaykh Muhammad the
   objective of the meeting and its resolutions.

   On the other hand, the Sultans from Burco (Togdheer Region), including
   Sultan Mahmud Haji Husayn, who when they returned to Burco town, spoke to
   the BBC reporter, Husayn Aw Jibril Hagar, who asked him why such a big
   meeting that brought together many sultans remained a secret.

   (Description of Source: London BBC Somali.com in Somali -- Text version of
   reports carried on the external radio service of the United Kingdom's
   public service bro adcaster; URL:

   http://www.bbcsomali.com/ http://www.bbcsomali.com )

   Attachments:Somalia Highlight Wednesday 11 August 2010.pdf

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   56) Back to Top
   Okinawa Local TV Evening News 10 Aug 10
   For a copy of the video, contact GSG_GVP_VideoOps@rccb.osis.gov or the OSC
   Customer Center at (800) 205-8615. Selected video also available at
   OpenSource.gov. - Japan -- OSC Summary
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 11:54:03 GMT
   No relevant reports.Naha NHK Television in Japanese is the Naha-based
   station of Japan's public broadcast network Nippon Hoso Kyokai (NHK). Naha
   OTV Television in Japanese, "OTV Super News" 0917-0955 GMT (1817-1855
   local)

   Click here to view the streamed video in .wmv formatThe main local news
   segment of "OTV Super News" carries as its 2nd story a 1-minute report on
   Naha City Mayor Onaga lodging a protest at the Foreign Ministry's Okinawa
   Office and the US Consulate General for an alleged sexual assault on a
   local woman by a US military service member on 4 August.Naha OTV
   Television in Japanese is an affiliate of Fuji Television, part of the
   Fuji-Sankei group. Naha RBC Television in Japanese, "RBC THE NEWS"
   0915-0955 GMT (1815-1855 local)

   No relevant reports.Naha RBC Television in Japanese is affiliated with TBS
   Television, which has ties with major daily Mainichi Shimbun. Naha QAB
   Television in Japanese, "Station Q" 0928-0953 GMT (1828-1853 local)

   No relevant reports.Naha QAB Television in Japanese is an affiliate of TV
   Asahi, owned by major daily Asahi Shimbu n.

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   57) Back to Top
   New US Sanctions 'Weaponless Surgical Strike' Against Kim Jong Il
   "Korean Peninsula Watch" column by Ruriko Kubota: "Target of US 'Pinpoint'
   Attacks Money Used To Prop Up Kim Jong Il Regime" - Sankei Shimbun Online
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 07:56:08 GMT
   over the sinking of the ROK warship by the DPRK will soon be reaching
   their peak. Following the largest-ever joint US-ROK military exercises in
   the Sea of Japan, South Korea started its own anti-submarine exercises in
   the Yellow Sea on 5 August. The United States will anno unce soon its list
   of targets for economic and financial sanctions, the ultimate focus of the
   sanctions being the money used by General Secretary Kim Jong Il to
   maintain his rule. The question is what actions North Korea will take to
   demonstrate its angry reaction to the sanctions. Pinpoint Attacks

   According to a US State Department source, the targets for the new
   economic and financial sanctions against North Korea will be "North Korean
   trading companies and individuals involved in illicit activities around
   the world." The list will be announced soon, and the sanctions "will start
   as soon as the list is announced."

   In this regard, Robert Einhorn, the State Department's special advisor in
   charge of sanctions against Iran and North Korea, has already visited
   South Korea and Japan to explain the US sanctions to the governments of
   both countries, and he will visit China sometime this month to officially
   request the cooperation of the Chinese go vernment.

   At a news conference after a meeting between the foreign and defense
   ministers of the United States and South Korea (two-plus-two meeting) in
   Seoul last month, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared that the
   target of the additional sanctions will be the "North Korean leadership,
   which is advancing illicit and provocative policies." The sanctions will
   aim to cut off the supply of funds that prop up the Kim Jong Il regime.
   Although they avoided naming names, it is rare for a US cabinet member and
   a high-level government official to make such public statements,
   indicating that the US government is confident of the force of the new
   sanctions.

   The sanctions are expected to see the US government issue advisories to
   third-country financial institutions holding accounts of targets on the
   sanctions list to shut down those accounts. If they do not cooperate, the
   US government will warn those institutions that any dealings they have
   with US fi nancial institutions will be suspended.

   The legal basis for the sanctions is UN Security Council Resolution 1874,
   which imposed economic sanctions on North Korea following its nuclear test
   in May 2009. Those sanctions block procurement routes of secret or illicit
   funds used for North Korea's nuclear development and other uses. The new
   US sanctions will be imposed to stop illegal actions such as money
   laundering and the circulating of counterfeit currency under orders of the
   North Korean government. The scope of the sanctions will aim to extend to
   all of the funds used to prop up the regime.

   The amount of pressure put on third-country financial institutions may
   vary, but if the measures are put into full force, the actions taken
   against the Macau-based bank Banco Delta Asia in 2005 will be replicated
   around the world. It is possible that the sanctions will go after the
   secret accounts held by the Kim Jong Il family in Swiss banks. The
   freezing of North Korean ba nk accounts could have a big impact on the
   North Korean economy because, depending on the actions against
   third-country banks, the sanctions could have a widening impact on North
   Korea's legitimate commercial dealings.

   Among those involved, these sanctions are called "weaponless surgical
   strikes against the Kim Jong Il regime." Since many of the regime's
   dubious accounts are in banks in China and Southeast Asia, it appears that
   in the end the effectiveness of the sanctions will boil down to haggling
   between the United States and China. Wearing Down the North Korean
   Military

   The United States and South Korea have been ramping up their
   demonstrations of the kind of military prowess that could be launched
   against North Korea.

   On 5 August, the South Korean military began staging large-scale
   anti-submarine exercises in the Yellow Sea near the area where the South
   Korean naval vessel was sunk. In addition to army, navy, and air force
   units, ROK marin e and special forces units are participating in the
   exercises. The joint US-ROK Ulchi Freedom Guardian exercise, an annual
   computerized command and control exercise (computer simulation exercise)
   that hypothesizes contingencies on the Korean Peninsula, will take place
   in the middle of August, and joint US-ROK military exercises are also
   scheduled to be held in the Yellow Sea in September.

   How much pressure are these military exercises putting on North Korea?

   Commented a military affairs expert: "Military exercises can turn into
   real warfare once they start. The military is on a footing that is
   virtually the same as it is for an actual contingency. Thus the side that
   the exercises are being conducted against feels fairly strongly pressured
   that 'this could turn into war.' Moreover, once the exercises begin, they
   cannot be stopped mid-way." Each time there is an exercise, North Korea
   responds by putting its military on a wartime alert, which, the expert
   said, "causes considerable economic attrition."

   North Korea reacted angrily to the South Korean military exercises begun
   on the 5 th, the KPA's western zone command warning, "We will suppress
   them with a strong physical counterstrike." However, at this point in
   time, the KPA is making no major moves.

   Regarding the joint US-ROK military exercises conducted at the end of
   July, North Korea's National Defense Commission prognosticated that the
   DPRK would start a "retaliatory sacred war based on nuclear deterrence."
   The Choso'n Shinbo, the official organ of the General Association of
   Korean Residents in Japan, suggested the likelihood of a third DPRK
   nuclear test, stating, "North Korea believes that nuclear testing is an
   essential step for securing nuclear deterrence."

   Will the escalation of tensions and angry reactions force the development
   of contacts behind the scenes between North Korea and the United States
   and So uth Korea? Or will they induce military action by North Korea? The
   answers to those questions are not known now, but there is apprehension
   that these rising tensions could cause some kind of accidental collision.

   The United States' position has consistently been that it will "absolutely
   protect our allies." The US State Department source says there is "another
   message" included in this.

   Said the source: "The implication is the importance of Okinawa for the
   United States, the importance of US interests in Asia. That is the message
   to Japan, but the response of the Japanese government appears to be dull."

   (Description of Source: Tokyo Sankei Shimbun Online in Japanese -- Website
   of daily published by Fuji Sankei Communications Group; URL:
   http://sankei.jp.msn.com)Attachments:Sankei7Aug--ChosenHanto.pdf

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   58) Back to Top
   China Economic News in Brief: Jiangsu Textile Exports; Xiamen Port
   Turnover; Baotou Rare Earth Trading Center
   Xinhua: "China Economic News in Brief: Jiangsu Textile Exports; Xiamen
   Port Turnover; Baotou Rare Earth Trading Center" - Xinhua
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 07:52:02 GMT
   BEIJING, Aug. 10 (Xinhua) -- The following are China economic news items
   in brief.

   JIANGSU TEXTILE EXPORTS UPEast China's Jiangsu Province exported 1.12
   billion U.S. dollars worth of textiles, clothing and accessories in the
   first half, a rise of 28.9 percent year on year, according to the customs
   house in the provincial capital of Nanjing.The total included 710 million
   U.S. dol lars worth of textiles, up 40.6 percent, and 410 million dollars
   worth of clothing and accessories, up 12.8 percent.In the first half,
   Jiangsu sold 220 million U.S. dollars worth of textiles and clothing to
   the United States, up 46.2 percent, 170 million dollars worth to the
   European Union, up 1.3 percent, and 150 million dollars to Japan, down 0.9
   percent.The value of the province's exports to ASEAN members soared 93.8
   percent to 83.84 million U.S. dollars.XIAMEN POSTS DOUBLE-DIGIT GROWTH IN
   PORT CARGO TURNOVERXiamen, a major port in east China's Fujian Province,
   handled 60.68 million tonnes of cargoes in the first half, a rise of 20.88
   percent year on year, according to the local port administration
   authority.The port handled 2.74 million TEUs (20-foot equivalent units) of
   containers, up 28.22 percent.The port saw its international trans-shipping
   business increase sharply. It had 188,000 TEUs of containers
   trans-shipped, representing a year-on-year growth of 740 percent an d
   surpassing the 175,000 TEUs for the whole of last year.Xiamen recorded
   160,000 TEUs of containers directly transported to Taiwan in the first
   half, up 15.91 percent year-on-year.N. CHINA BAOTOU TO LAUNCH RARE EARTH
   TRADING CENTERBaotou, a city known for its rich rare earth resources in
   China, is preparing to build a national rare earth trading center.The
   proposed trading center, which is planned to start operation at the
   beginning of 2011, will provide a market-driven pricing mechanism for rare
   earth products, said Ren Fu, director of Baotou Rare-Earth Development
   Area's administrative committee.Baotou, located in north China's Inner
   Mongolia Autonomous Region, accounts for 87 percent of China's rare earth
   reserves and 50 percent of the nation's exports.The world's largest rare
   earth producer, exporter and consumer, China provides 95 percent of the
   global rare earth demand, though its reserves only account for the 25 to
   30 percent of the world's rare earth resources, said Lin Donglu, secretary
   general of the Chinese Society of Rare Earths.(Description of Source:
   Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for
   English-language audiences (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   59) Back to Top
   Foreign Donors Send Relief Items Not Cash for Flood Victims
   Report by Mehtab Haider: "Pakistan fails to get foreign aid in cash for
   flood victims" - The News Online
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 06:38:56 GMT
   ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has not received even a single penny from multilateral
   and bilateral donors in shape of hard cash for providi ng emergency
   assistance to the worst-ever flood affected areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,
   Sindh and the Punjab, it is learnt.

   Although, Pakistan has so far remained unable to generate foreign
   assistance in the shape of hard cash but Islamabad is going to request the
   United Nations for flash appeal of $400 million to $500 million for
   helping authorities to undertake relief phase for the flood-affected areas
   in the next couple of days.

   Out of total commitment of $94.8 million from all donors for providing
   emergency rescue and relief efforts in the flood-hit areas, Islamabad has
   got assistance in the shape of goods and services only and no hard cash is
   so far available to the PPP-led regime due to a variety of reasons,
   including trust deficit being cited as major impediment in the way of
   receiving money.

   According to assessment done by UN, the number of people suffering from
   the massive floods in Pakistan could exceed the combined total in three
   recent mega dis asters -- the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the 2005 Kashmir
   earthquake and the 2010 Haiti earthquake. It further stated that Pakistan
   would require billions of dollars to undertake relief and reconstruction
   of flood-affected areas.

   However, the authorities of the Economic Affairs Division (EAD) are not
   yet clear whether the committed amount of $94.8 million from the donors is
   part of the ongoing lending programmes or it is additional money keeping
   in view the devastated flood hit the country in its history. Except
   Islamic Development Bank (IDB), no other donor has even bothered to commit
   any hard cash.

   "The IDB has committed $10 million in shape of loan, which Islamabad is
   going to receive after completing all required procedures," a senior
   official disclosed to The News after attending a high-level meeting
   chaired by Minister for Finance Dr Abdul Hafeez Sheikh here on Monday.

   When contacted, spokesman of the Economic Affairs Division here on Mon day
   confirmed that out of total $94.8 million committed assistance, Pakistan
   is going to receive $22 million through UN system, $60 million in shape of
   goods and services and $10 million in the shape of loan from the IDB.

   According to official data prepared by EAD, USA has committed $10 million,
   Saudi Arabia $10 million, EU $10 million, Japan $3.23 million, UN $22
   million, IDB $10 million (loan), $1 million from IDB for relief operation
   and the UK $10 million.

   When contacted, Minister of State for Economic Affairs, Hina Rabbani Khar,
   told The News that the emergency assistance usually received in shape of
   goods and services and hard cash started pouring in at the stage of relief
   operation.

   "We are going to request the UN for flash appeal to undertake relief
   operation for which Pakistan will have to seek around $400 to $500 million
   assistance on immediate basis," she added. She said the earthquake of 2005
   had hit only nine districts of the count ry but severity of the recent
   flood was huge.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The News Online in English -- Website of
   a widely read, influential English daily, member of the Jang publishing
   group. Neutral editorial policy, good coverage of domestic and
   international issues. Usually offers leading news and analysis on issues
   related to war against terrorism. Circulation estimated at 55,000; URL:
   http://www.thenews.com.pk/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   60) Back to Top
   India Wonders Whether Obama To Skip Pakistan Altogether During Nov Asia
   Trip
   Report by Ramesh Ramachandran: "Will Obama do a Carter on Pak? India
   Wonders" - The Asian Age Online
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 06:21:41 GMT
   New Delhi -- Will Barack Obama do a Jimmy Carter? The question is
   uppermost in the minds of many in India and Japan, but for entirely
   different reasons.

   As the 44th President of the US gets ready for an Asian tour in November
   which will take him to India, South Korea and Japan, Indians are asking
   whether Mr Obama will, like Mr Carter before him, skip Pakistan
   altogether, or will he go the way of Mr Bill Clinton, who spent five days
   here and five hours in Islamabad?The Japanese, on the other hand, would
   want to know whether Mr Obama will indeed visit Hiroshima when he travels
   to Yokohama for the annual Apec summit. The unprecedented presence of the
   US ambassador to Japan at the 65th anniversary of the bombing of Hiroshima
   has raised hopes that Mr Obama might become the first sitting US President
   to visit the city after Mr Carter visited Hiroshima's peace mus eum in
   1984, after his term had ended.

   Neither New Delhi nor Washington has officially announced the dates for Mr
   Obama's visit, but it is expected to take place in the second week of
   November. All the Republican Presidents to have visited India -- George W.
   Bush in 2006, Richard Nixon in 1969 and Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1959 --
   travelled to Pakistan, too. In contrast, Democrat Presidents have been
   discerning. While Mr Clinton spent five days in India and five hours in
   Islamabad in 2000, Mr Carter skipped Pakistan altogether in 1978.

   The details of American presidential visits are kept secret because of
   security considerations, more so when the destinations are places such as
   Pakistan or Afghanistan. Either the announcement is made closer to the
   date of travel or after the visit is concluded. So Mr Obama might still
   transit Pakistan, but his calendar is tight.

   (Description of Source: New Delhi The Asian Age Online in English --
   Website of the independent daily with good coverage of security issues.
   Harshly critical of US policies, run by T. Venkattram Reddy. Circulation
   estimated at 244,317, with an elite audience; URL:
   http://www.asianage.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   61) Back to Top
   RF MoD Budget of R2.025 Trillion for 2013 Analyzed, Spending Methods
   Criticized
   Article by Vladimir Kalinin under rubric "Realities": "Military Financial
   Dead End: Defense Ministry Will Get a Substantial Addition to the Budget,
   but Seemingly Does Not Know Where To Spend It" - Nezavisimoye Voyennoye
   Obozreniye Online
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 18:17:59 GMT
   On 29 July last week the RF Government approved basic characteristics of
   the federal budget for 2011, which were stated publicly at a Budget
   Planning Commission session a day earlier. The figure of R2.025 trillion
   was like music to the ears for Anatoliy Serdyukov. That was how much the
   military department will get in 2013.

   As a reference, budget expenditures under the "National Defense" section
   are R1.264 trillion in 2010. It has not yet been announced how they will
   grow in 2011 and 2012, but in an interview at the Farnborough Aerospace
   Show, First Deputy RF Defense Minister Vladimir Popovkin told journalists
   that the amount of State Armaments Program funding will be R20 trillion
   over the next 10 years. Journalists immediately calculated that the
   government plans to spend an average of R2 trillion annually on defense,
   but probably with a gradual increase.

   We will hope this money will not go to pay for the latest repairs to th e
   building on Znamenka in Moscow, for imported furniture made of valuable
   species of wood for Mr. Serdyukov, and for generals' uniforms from leading
   Russian fashion designers. Calculations and Reflections

   To begin with let us look into how big this figure appears in the eyes of
   military officials themselves. It did not seem as big to Acting Chief of
   RF Armed Forces Armaments Lieutenant-General Oleg Frolov back at the
   beginning of June as it did to simple taxpayers. The general would like to
   receive R3.6 trillion annually to procure arms and military equipment.

   We know generals' appetites grow in disproportion to capacities of the
   country's economy, so the government has to constantly readjust them. But
   it simply is sinful to spend so much on Armed Forces that are shrinking
   like shagreen before our eyes. It was not by chance that Deputy Chairman
   of the Military Industrial Commission under the RF Government Vladislav
   Putilin was against increasing defense exp enditures, motivating his
   position by the fact that the Defense Ministry does not know what to spend
   budgetary money on. We will recall that he was talking about the previous
   amount of R1.264 trillion.

   In the course of a month the military department evidently quickly drew up
   a cost estimate and submitted it to the Budgetary Planning Commission for
   consideration. The military obviously also included in the substantiation
   for the growth in their own expenditures the results of recent Exercise
   Vostok-2010, presented to the Supreme Commander as an outstanding
   achievement in bringing the "new look" to the RF Armed Forces.

   At one time Mikhail Kozhukhov, press secretary for Prime Minister Vladimir
   Putin, put it this way in the interview "I See No Options": "He (Putin --
   V.K.) is forced to rely on what the military report to him.

   "As we all know, they are inclined to lie to public opinion, conceal
   losses, and embellish their vict ories. That is how it always has been, at
   any rate for the extent of my conscious life."

   Such generals' gimmicks are even more difficult to figure out for current
   Supreme Commander Dmitriy Anatolyevich Medvedev, who has not served a day
   in the Armed Forces. So seemingly everything shown to him in Exercise
   Vostok-2010 made a very strong impression on the Supreme Commander, and he
   could promise an increase in the Defense Ministry budget with ease.

   There are many petrodollars in our country, and it is not especially
   difficult to increase the budget of any department. What to spend this
   money on so there is both a benefit to the Armed Forces and consequently
   also protection for the state is another matter.

   We start from an addition to the Def ense Ministry budget in 2011
   amounting most likely to R125 billion. As a matter of fact, at first
   glance this does not seem to be a very big addition compared with other
   state expenses such as for public health and agriculture, where figures
   are another order of magnitude. But the base budget in the social sphere
   pales in comparison with the defense budget; it is enormously less.
   Therefore the very addition of hundreds of billions of rubles will improve
   the state of affairs in these spheres only by a little.

   It is another matter to compare with commensurable sectors: Air Force with
   civil aviation, Navy with civilian shipbuilding, military with civilian
   space.

   It is planned to spend most, R75.8 billion, on peaceful space, in second
   place civilian aviation at R32 billion (a 45% increase), in third place
   science (R21.6 billion, an increase of 2.9 times), in fourth place
   development of the electronic component base and electronics (13 billion),
   and in fifth place civilian shipbuilding (10.3 billion, a 50% growth).
   Financial and Organizational Issues

   It is unknown how much money has been allocated to the Air Force to
   procure new aircraft, but based on overall exp enditures, it too will be
   clearly insufficient to implement the enormous number of plans of military
   pilots. They already have nothing to fly. Military experts declared
   earlier that under a contract allegedly signed back in 2009, funding will
   begin in 2010 for procurement of 60 Su-35, Su-30, and Su-27 fighters for
   R80 billion overall and 32 Su-34 bombers (the contract is valued at
   approximately R35.2 billion). The bottom line is an amount enormously
   greater than R125 billion. But the aircraft enumerated represent only a
   small -- albeit the most expensive -- part of the bulk of arms and
   military equipment the Air Force needs today.

   Speaking to Black Sea Fleet command personnel in Sevastopol, CINC Navy
   Admiral Vladimir Vysotskiy stated that R31 billion had been allocated for
   laying down submarines and surface ships for the Navy. Is this a lot or a
   little? Everything is comparative. For example, the cost of building three
   Project 11356 missile frigates for the Ind ian Navy is approximately $1.1
   billion, i.e., R33.2 billion. If we build three new frigates for
   ourselves, money for the shipbuilding program will come to an end.

   And the fact is that plans also are being hatched to build two brigades of
   Project 677 Lada diesel submarines. True, the talk for now is only about
   two divisions of four submarines each. The lead "unit" is Sankt-Peterburg.
   The report of her acceptance into the Navy finally was signed on 22 April
   of this year after long years of ordeals connected with remedying
   construction deficiencies. Another two submarines, Kronshtadt and
   Sevastopol, are on the ways in different degrees of readiness. But money
   still is needed for building five new nuclear submarines at Severodvinsk,
   for modernizing the three Project 1144 Orlan nuclear-powered missile
   cruisers Admiral Nakhimov, Admiral Lazarev, and Admiral Ushakov (she
   definitely never will be repaired, having been turned into a pile of
   radioactive scrap me tal long ago), not counting expenditures for
   repairing and maintaining the technical readiness of ships and submarines
   included in the Navy.

   Four years ago the CINC Navy (at that time this position was held by
   Admiral Vladimir Masorin) stated that in the next 15-20 years it was
   planned to build a series of 20 modern Project 22350 frigates, five for
   each fleet. That is, we already should have a minimum of four frigates,
   each costing from $320 to $400 million. But where are they now? They do
   not exist. In the future the CINC Navy did not exclude construction of
   "one or two aircraft carriers." Specifically "one or two." That is how
   they put it in a store: "Wrap up a couple of pirozhki for me." There is no
   harm in dreaming, of course, but it is better to do this in early
   childhood.

   We now have over 60 ships and vessels of various types and displacements
   in construction or repair. We also will be able to purchase the dock
   landin g ship Mistral in exchange for some kind of preferences provided to
   us by France, and order another two similar ships, although they will not
   cost us a half-billion, as some of the mass media have written, but
   enormously more. Only why feed foreign shipbuilding companies and the
   state budget of another country or purchase our own morally obsolete arms
   and military equipment? The fact is, there is nothing new. For example, we
   will buy the dock landing ship in France, unmanned aerial vehicles from
   Israel, avionics for aircraft from Great Britain, and the electronic base
   for military space equipment from the United States. And in the final
   account what kind of weapons will the Russian Armed Forces get? Problems
   and Pitfalls

   So it turns out that Deputy Chairman of the Military Industrial Commission
   under the RF Government Vladislav Putilin, who spoke against an increase
   of defense expenditures, is right.

   Indeed, before spending money one has to understand what we wish to arm
   the Armed Forces with. The present state of industry, particularly machine
   building, does not allow providing the Armed Forces with modern armament.
   They were building the diesel-electric submarine Sankt-Peterburg for 12
   years and were unable to build her as originally conceived.

   We have been building the Project 885 multipurpose nuclear submarine Yasen
   for over 16 years, inasmuch as first we cannot create a new complex, then
   we cannot "fit" the systems in, then there simply is nowhere to purchase
   new-generation electronics. Be that as it may, the situation on remote
   posts is more important for the Armed Forces than what is happening in
   high-level offices; photo PhotoXpress.RU

   The long-suffering Bulava refuses to fly. This year it was nominated for
   the "Serebryanaya kalosha" (Silver Muddle) prize, presented for the most
   dubious achievements in show business. Twelve test launches turned into a
   real show and now the "au dience" is waiting for the next one, the 13th
   (spare me!), planned for the period from 9 through 12 August. We do not
   have long to wait to find out yet another time whether a tragedy or farce
   is being played out on the way to Kura Range on Kamchatka. If the 13th
   launch is successful, tests will continue, but if Bulava again displays
   its weakness, then doubt may be cast on the entire missile building
   program and even on its revision in favor of liquid-propellant ballistic
   missiles.

   But is Bulava itself at fault for its failures if first its fuel lines
   crack -- they were made of the wrong metal, then rotational springs of the
   nozzles crumble like glass -- again, they used the wrong make of metal for
   the springs, but the necessary make is not being produced. And so it is
   from "trifles" that an overall picture is assembled of the inability of
   our industry, above all that of defense enterprises that have passed into
   private hands, to produce those product s that indeed are required to
   create new arms and military equipment.

   It was sufficient to visit the first international forum "Technologies in
   Machine Building-2010," which more resembled a show than an exhibition of
   innovations and achievements in technologies. "Waltzing" tanks and
   boogeyman-jeeps, whose engines operate without oil, like Zepter dishware
   in which it is possible to fry without oil and cook without salt -- the
   value of these "innovations" is not great. And is it possible to call what
   was shown to Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh innovations? The guest
   was shown the BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicle (in the inventory since
   1990), T-90A (a T-90 modification) and T-90S (T-90 export ve rsion) tanks,
   and the T-80U tank being manufactured back in the Soviet Union (in the
   inventory since 1976). The integrated amphibious BTR-80 armored personnel
   carrier presented at the exhibition was created in the 1980's. The Buk
   M-12 self -propelled SAM complex is only a modified Buk which they began
   to create almost 38 years ago!

   A static exposition showed 23 pieces of combat equipment presented by the
   RF Defense Ministry and 25 models from equipment-manufacturing enterprises
   that just did not make it to the Armed Forces for various reasons,
   including very unpleasant ones for the manufacturers of this equipment.

   The Defense Ministry budget should not be increased now until the system
   for funding and crediting the State Defense Order has been adjusted. A
   Sorry Outcome

   If enterprises do produce military equipment and arms now, they do so
   almost in single copies. In contrast to series products, such "piece
   goods" demand enormous additional outlays for training and technical
   retooling not only of the general contractor, but also of subcontractors,
   for which they clearly are not prepared. Joint-stock -- read "private" --
   enterprises raise prices on materials and completi ng parts annually,
   since they are not regulated by the state and are not even registered by
   the state client and RF Federal Tariff Service (FST). Monopolists take
   advantage of the situation to make a bigger killing. As a result, the cost
   of any model of military equipment turns out to be higher than the initial
   cost by the end of construction or repair. This is brought on by
   indexation, undocumented work, expenditures to purchase additional
   equipment, warranty servicing, extension of warranties, and payments under
   licensing agreements.

   The Defense Ministry, however, does not want to take note of economic
   conditions and reasons for end product appreciation. Moreover, the
   military department refuses to comply with that procedure for forming,
   coordinating, and registering prices specified by the instruction and
   order of Minekonomiki (Ministry of the Economy) and Minpromenergo
   (Ministry of Industry and Energy). The Defense Ministry has one argument:
   outlays must not exceed amounts envisaged by the State Armaments Program.

   While acknowledging the very fact of annual inflation, the military
   department refuses to index the unpaid portion of the State Defense Order
   in terms of deflators, which is recommended by Minfin (Finance Ministry)
   and Minekonomrazvitiya (Ministry of Economic Development and Trade). The
   Defense Ministry substituted itself both for Minfin and Minekonomrazvitiya
   by establishing its own understated deflators. The matter also is
   complicated by the fact that the military department pays for the defense
   order based on delivery of the "commodity." Military people pretend never
   to have heard about it when they are reminded that the production cost of
   a finished product includes expenses for bank interest on credit that must
   be taken for anticipatory targeted funding. Enterprises which were
   fortunate to wangle a state defense order must make do with their own
   resourcefulness, as they say.

   Perhaps thi s is why it takes decades to build our ships and aircraft, and
   those ending up in repair in the final account are sent "to be scrapped"
   in order to settle with the workers from earnings from the sale of scrap
   metal? It is well that we have such odious figures as Chubays and
   Serdyukov. They have become the object of national indignation. But are
   they the only ones at fault for the collapse of the Army and Navy? No,
   they are not warm and fuzzy, but somehow one cannot believe that two
   people can run the Armed Forces into the ground.

   So it turns out that industrial enterprises are not interested in getting
   a state defense order that is complicated to fulfill. And it is also more
   advantageous for workers to manufacture plastic dishware, for example,
   than the electronic innards of modern tanks.

   We prefer not to delve into these trivia, though, but to argue about
   future innovative breakthroughs. With such tendencies, the nanotanks and
   nanoaircraft abou t which ditties already are being sung possibly soon
   will appear in our Armed Forces. And in the near future our Armed Forces
   will receive the full right to be called a nanoarmy.

   P.S. Continuing the radical reform of the Armed Forces, which must learn
   to spend money only on effective business projects, Serdyukov recently
   announced that Russia will reduce the strength level of Black Sea Fleet.

   (Description of Source: Moscow Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye Online in
   Russian -- Website of weekly military newspaper published by Remchukov's
   Nezavisimaya Gazeta; URL: http://nvo.ng.ru/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   62) Back to Top
   Hun Sen Orders Cambodian Provincial Governors To Adhere to 'One-China
   Policy'
   Report by Meng Chhai: "Cambodia Reiterates the Implementation of One-China
   Policy" - Reaksmei Kampuchea
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 10:02:35 GMT
   At a ceremony to disseminate the democratic development program at the
   sub-national level for 2010-2019 on Monday morning 9 August 2010, and in
   front of charge d'affaires of the Chinese embassy in Cambodia, Samdech
   Decho Hun Sen pointed out that we implement a one-China policy; Taiwan is
   only a province of the People's Republic of China.

   The clarification by the head of the Royal Government of Cambodia was made
   as a verbal order for governors of provinces and cities nationwide
   concerning the one-China policy which Cambodia has been adopting.

   Samdech Prime Minister Hun Sen added that Taiwan has repeatedly requested
   the opening of a representative office in Cambodia. So, on this is sue I
   would like to specify that even at the coming national day of Taiwan,
   hosting Taiwanese flag in various provinces on Cambodian territory is
   absolutely not allowed. All provincial governors have to be careful on
   this matter; otherwise, they will be removed immediately.

   With that announcement by the samdech head of the Royal Government, he
   also talked about the transfer of some power from minister level to
   sub-national level. This power, however, is not for provincial or city
   governors to set up a republic or federation, or to have the right to set
   up an armed force, or to accommodate foreign ambassadors.

   Samdech Hun Sen pointed out that the transfer of power from minister to
   provincial governor concerns only some autonomous power dealing with some
   points only. You do not have the right to set up a separate armed force,
   send ambassadors or consul officials, or to call on Taiwan to set up a
   representative office in your province.

   The island of Taiw an has been trying to separate itself from the Chinese
   administration with the backing of the United States.

   It should be pointed out that the one-China policy has been frequently
   reiterated by the head of the Royal Government of Cambodia. With
   Cambodia's policy, the Beijing government has decided to give a lot of
   financial aid to Cambodia, and especially to sustain the heroic father of
   the Cambodian nation Samdech Preah Norodom Sihanouk.

   The diplomatic relations between Cambodia and China was set up in the era
   of Sangkum Niyum of Samdech Preah Norodom Sihanouk with Chinese Prime
   Minister Zhou Enlai (Romanized name as published) in July 1958.

   In December 2009, China decided to provide around $1,200 million loans to
   the Cambodian government to develop infrastructure, roads, and bridges
   when Cambodia deported 20 ethnic Uighurs back to China. The ethnic Uighurs
   were accused of causing violence against ethnic Han Chinese in Xinjiang
   autonomous region in mi d-2009.

   (Description of Source: Phnom Penh Reaksmei Kampuchea in Cambodian  One
   of the oldest and most widely read pro-government daily newspapers. Title
   translates as "Light of Cambodia." Circulation between 15,000 and 20,000.)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   63) Back to Top
   US Says DPRK Artillery Fire Killed 'a Lot of' Fish
   Unattributed article: "U.S. Says N.Korean Artillery Fire 'Killed a Lot of
   Fish'" - Chosun Ilbo Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 03:43:43 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Chosun Ilbo Online in English -- English
   website carrying English sum maries and full translations of vernacular
   hard copy items of the largest and oldest daily Chosun Ilbo, which is
   conservative in editorial orientation -- strongly nationalistic,
   anti-North Korea, and generally pro-US; URL: http://english.chosun.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   64) Back to Top
   Smart Yet Resolute Reaction - JoongAng Daily Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 01:08:00 GMT
   (JOONGANG ILBO) - North Korea's provocation against South Korea has gone
   far beyond the level of what's permissible. Without warning, North Korea
   fired more than 100 rounds of artillery near the Northern Limit Line, the
   maritime border in the Yellow Sea. More than 10 of those shells landed in
   the waters south of the NLL - the first time since the Korean War that
   shells have landed on our side of the border. The attack appears to have
   been a carefully calculated one, as it occurred immediately following the
   conclusion of our military exercises in the Yellow Sea.

   North Korea's seizure of a fishing boat on Sunday also appears to be an
   attempt to use the nine fishermen aboard the ship as hostages, because the
   North Korean patrol boat sailed a long distance to tow it away.All of
   these actions seem aimed at shaking up the hard-line stance of our
   government and inciting internal chaos in this country.North Korea has
   already labeled our defensive drill as a "military exercise for invasion,"
   raising the possibility of war on the Korean Peninsula. Under the
   circumstances, it is possible that the North intends to create a crisis in
   the South through a series of provocations. For example, by firing shells
   in the waters below the NLL, it may be seeking an excuse for a more
   serious provocation, because it knows that an action such as that could
   trigger a reaction from the South. Then, if a regional clash were to break
   out, the North could hold the South responsible. It is possible that the
   North believes that such an action will allow it to avoid responsibility
   for the sinking of our naval warship Ch'o'nan (Cheonan).When the Korean
   War broke out, the North's military was superior to ours. But now our
   military retains an overwhelming advantage over the North, thanks to our
   strong alliance with the United States. Therefore, the possibility that a
   war will break out, which the North has repeatedly threatened, is slim,
   because the North knows that they will be defeated in the end. Still, we
   should take precautions for the possibility that the North will resort to
   its signature strategy by provoking a direct military clash in areas,
   including the waters around the NLL.To do that, we should be fully
   prepared to counter any provocations by the North, while not allowing
   ourselves to be exploited by its deliberate scheme. For instance, it would
   be unnecessary for us to launch a counterattack in response to the recent
   shelling because we did not incur substantial damage. But in cases like
   the Ch'o'nan (Cheonan) sinking, which inflicted direct damage on us, we
   need to respond aggressively.This is the time for the government to show
   North Korea a nimble, discreet and resolute reaction to future
   provocations.(Description of Source: Seoul JoongAng Daily Online in
   English -- Website of English-language daily which provides
   English-language summaries and full-texts of items published by the major
   center-right daily JoongAng Ilbo, as well as unique reportage; distributed
   as an insert to the Seoul edition of the International Herald Tribune;
   URL: http://joongangdaily.joins.com)

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   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   65) Back to Top
   Is China a Guardian of North Korea?
   "Viewpoint" column by Park Sung-soo, a visiting professor of media studies
   at Myongji University: "Is China a Guardian of North Korea?" - JoongAng
   Daily Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 01:12:01 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul JoongAng Daily Online in English -- Website
   of English-language daily which provides English-language summaries and
   full-texts of items published by the major center-right daily JoongAng
   Ilbo, as well as unique reportage; distributed as an insert to the Seoul
   edition of the International Herald Tribune; URL: http://joon
   gangdaily.joins.com)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   66) Back to Top
   Lessons From The Korean Diaspora
   "Viewpoint" column by Song Ho-keun, a professor of sociology at Seoul
   National University and Translation by the JoongAng Daily staff: "Lessons
   From The Korean Diaspora" - JoongAng Daily Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 01:00:54 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul JoongAng Daily Online in English -- Website
   of English-language daily which provides English-language summaries and
   full-texts of items published by the major center-right daily JoongAng
   Ilbo, as well as unique reportage; distributed as an insert to the Seoul
   edition of the International Herald Tribune; URL:
   http://joongangdaily.joins.com)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   67) Back to Top
   DPRK Radio Reports on 10 Aug DPRK-US Senior Colonel-Level Contact in
   P'anmunjo'm
   Unattributed report carried as the 10th of 16 items in newscast - Korean
   Central Broadcasting Station
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 14:17:03 GMT
   (Description of Source: Pyongyang Korean Central Broadcasting Station in
   Korean -- DPRK state-run domestic radio network)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   68) Back to Top
   DPRK Notes Need To Create 'Peaceful Atmosphere' on US, ROK Military
   Exercises
   Special article by reporter Song Yo'ng-so'k: "Exercises for a War of
   Northward Aggression Can Never Be Justified"; The author's title in the
   byline provided by KPM may be different from that which appears in hard
   copy; For assistance with multimedia elements, contact the OSC Customer
   Center at (800) 205-8615 or oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Rodong Sinmun
   (Electronic Edition)
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 13:44:29 GMT
   aimed at aggravating the situation on the Korean peninsula to an extreme
   and then lighting the fuse of a war of northward agg ression -- are
   becoming more reckless with the passage of time. After the South Korean
   belligerent forces staged the largest-ever combined naval drills in
   history against our Republic in the East Sea of Korea (Sea of Japan) with
   the United States under the pretext of the incident of the warship
   "Ch'o'nan," the puppet forces have frantically staged anti-submarine
   drills on their own in the West Sea (Yellow Sea) of Korea, and in this
   course the danger of the outbreak of a war of northward aggression has
   increased to an extreme point on the Korean peninsula. Approximately 4,500
   troops of the puppet Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps, 29 warships
   of all types, including destroyers, submarines, and patrol ships, and
   approximately 50 fighters such as "F-15K" and "KF-16" were committed to
   the war exercise staged in the West Sea of Korea from 5 through 9 August.
   The puppet warmongers were heated up in staging a naval bombardment drill,
   torpedo-f iring, depth bomb- and mine-dropping drills, a surface gun
   firing drill, and an air strike drill with the emphasis of the exercise on
   enhancing the joint operational capability of the Army, Navy, and Air
   Force. What is even graver is the fact that the warmongers, during the war
   exercise staged this time, frantically staged even ground, sea, and
   underwater firing drills to carry out strikes on us in the waters near the
   five islands in the West Sea of Korea, where the two sides -- the North
   and the South -- are standing in acute military confrontation. The fire
   game racket that the South Korean puppets have kicked up this time is an
   intolerable challenge to our dignity and sovereignty, and this, as a
   deliberate and premeditated act of military provocation aimed at further
   aggravating the situation on the Korean peninsula and provoking a second
   Korean war, is evoking surging rage and vigilance from our army and
   people.

   The South Korean belligerent forces, in order to h ide the graveness of
   their acts of military provocations and to mislead public opinion,
   gibbered that the drills staged this time were the "defensive drills"
   aimed at enhancing "responsive capability" against someone else's
   "asymmetric provocations." However, with anything, the puppets can never
   conceal the aggressive and provocative nature of the war exercise racket
   they kicked up this time and can never escape the responsibility for
   bringing the situation on the Korean peninsula to the threshold of a war.

   Under no circumstances can exercises for a war of northward aggression be
   justified.

   The fact that, as part of the "military countermeasures" against the
   incident of the warship "Ch'o'nan," the South Korean authorities have
   staged the largest-ever joint naval war exercise in history against our
   Republic is, in itself, a blatant military threat and provocation to us.

   It is becoming clearer every day th at the so-called "result of the
   investigation" into the incident of the sinking of the warship is an
   anti-Republic smear forgery that the South Korean puppets have fabricated
   in conspiracy with the United States. Neither in South Korea nor in the
   United Nations the "result of the investigation" into the incident of the
   sinking of the warship has received credence, and discussions are underway
   between the DPRK and the United States to probe into the truth of the
   incident. Nonetheless, after staging the largest-ever combined naval
   drills in history with the US imperialist forces of aggression by linking
   the incident of the sinking of the warship with us in a far-fetched manner
   and by challenging public opinions at home and abroad, the South Korean
   authorities have staged a puppet forces' independent joint naval war
   exercise; this cannot but be a reckless, absurd act by those who are going
   haywire in confrontation and war.

   Moreover, the fact that th e puppet military selected the area where the
   warship "Ch'o'nan" sank as a theater for the war exercise, and the
   dangerous fire game commotion was kicked up in the waters near the five
   islands in the West Sea of Korea where the two sides -- the North and the
   South -- are standing in acute military confrontation is a deliberate
   provocation. By this, the South Korean warmongers have laid bare without
   qualms their dangerous, wicked plot to militarily confront us and not to
   hesitate to provoke a war of northward aggression by linking the
   slanderous incident of the sinking of the warship with us to the end and
   by using this as a pretext. The situation shows that the large-scale war
   exercise racket that the puppets kicked up in the West Sea of Korea was
   not a "defensive exercise" but a deliberate act of military invasion aimed
   at lighting the fuse of a war of northward aggression.

   Exercises for a war of northward aggression are a main factor that heigh
   tens tension and disturbs peace on the Korean peninsula.

   Today, the situation on the Korean peninsula is more acute than ever
   before, because of the atrocious anti-Republic, confrontational maneuvers
   perpetrated by the belligerent forces within and without. On the Korean
   peninsula where a touch-and-go danger of a war is looming over, a more
   crucially and urgently growing issue than any other is the creation of a
   peaceful atmosphere. No issue can be correctly resolved between the two
   sides in the tense situation where a war may break out at any time.

   The provocative fire game rackets -- which the South Korean ruling forces
   have successively kicked up against the other side -- show that they do
   not desire reducing tension on the Korean peninsula and peace there but
   are scheming to realize their wild ambition for northward aggression in
   conspiracy with the United States.

   (After) More than half a century, the situation on the Korean peninsula
   has remained in the state of neither war nor peace. After the emergence of
   the pro-US, conservative Lee Myung-bak (Yi Myo'ng-pak, Ri Myo'ng-pak)
   "regime" in South Korea, North-South relations -- which had been favorably
   developing since 15 June (the 15 June North-South Joint Declaration) --
   have deteriorated all of a sudden and have entered the worst phase
   following the incident of the sinking of the warship. The war exercise
   rackets for northward aggression, which are kicked up under such
   circumstances, are further aggravating the situation on the Korean
   peninsula, which is already in a crisis, and bringing about a grave
   consequence of increasing the danger of a nuclear war.

   Exercises for a war of northward aggression are an anti-reunification act
   of crime that throws cold water on the nation's ardent desire for
   reunification and intensifies confrontation among fellow countrymen.

   Historically, all the exercises for a war of northward aggression, which
   have been staged in South Korea, have served as a factor that intensifies
   North-South confrontation and tension and hampers the fatherland's
   reunification. It is a well-known fact that, whenever our nation's ardent
   desire for reunification had grown, the warmongers within and without
   frantically staged large-scale war exercises in order to intentionally
   make the situation tenser and to hamper the resolution of the
   reunification issue. The large-scale rackets of a war of northward
   aggression -- which the South Korean puppets have successively kicked up
   despite the unanimous opposition and condemnations at home and abroad --
   are the deliberate and premeditated provocations aimed at blocking the
   road to dialogue and peace and further aggravating North-South relations.
   History clearly shows that all the military exercises staged in South
   Korea, regardless of their forms, have aggravated North-South relations
   and created grave obstacles to Korea's independent and peaceful
   reunification .

   The South Korean puppet warmongers are raving that they will kick off the
   "Ulchi Freedom Guardian" joint military exercise with the United States on
   16 August, and that they are planning to stage the same war exercises as
   those staged in the East Sea and the West Sea every month. Regarding these
   war exercises, too, they are advertising that the exercises are done to
   demonstrate the so-called "alliance" with the United States and to deter
   "provocations." But this is a shameless sophistry.

   Our army and people are currently keeping a sharp eye on every move of the
   United States and the puppet warmongers, and they will crush the provokers
   and their strongholds in their entirety with the merciless strikes that
   defy imagination, should there be even the slightest attempt to provoke a
   war of northward aggression. Preemptive strike is not the warmongers'
   monopoly. In the situation in which the puppet warmongers are regarding
   the prov ocation of a war of northward aggression as an irreversible fact
   and are successively kicking up fire game rackets, we, at any time when it
   is due and with our own style of a sacred retaliatory war, which is based
   on the nuclear deterrent, will clearly show what the real taste of a war
   really is to those who are restive with the fever of war.

   By looking squarely at our will, the United States and the South Korean
   puppets should not run recklessly but should do away with reckless fire
   game rackets.

   (Description of Source: Pyongyang Rodong Sinmun (Electronic Edition) in
   Korean -- Daily of the Central Committee of the Workers Party of Korea;
   posted on the Korean Press Media (KPM) website run by the pro-Pyongyang
   General Association of Korean Residents in Japan; URL:
   http://dprkmedia.com)Attachments:retaliatoryWarRS10Aug10.pdf

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   69) Back to Top
   US-DPRK Hold Fourth Round of Senior Colonel-Level Talks
   Pyongyang Korean Central Broadcasting Station (KCBS) in Korean carried the
   following as the 10th of 16 items in its 1200 GMT newscast on 10 August,
   which OSC plans to translate as first referent item; KCNA Headline:
   "Fourth Round of DPRK-U.S. Senior Colonel-level Military Working Contact
   Made" - KCNA
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 13:28:17 GMT
   (Description of Source: Pyongyang KCNA in English -- Official DPRK news
   agency. URL: http://www.kcna.co.jp)

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   holder. Inquiries regarding u se may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   70) Back to Top
   Further on Police Searching Google Korea for Alleged Breach of Privacy -
   AFP
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 13:16:09 GMT
   searched the offices of Google Korea to investigate whether it breached
   privacy law in collecting information for its Street View service, an
   officer said.

   "We searched Google Korea as it is suspected of breaching the law on the
   protection of privacy in the course of collecting information needed for
   its Street View service," the officer involved in the case told AFP on
   condition of anonymity.Armed with a search warrant, a total of 16
   investigators were mobilised for the search which lasted for several
   hours, Yonhap news agency said.Police seized computer hard discs and other
   material. Af ter analysing the material they plan to summon the company's
   staff for questioning, it said.Google Korea later admitted it had
   collected some personal information but said it had not been used."Google
   has inadvertently collected some individuals' personal information in the
   process of Street View production in Korea and other countries. But Google
   suspended the production after learning of the information collection," a
   senior executive at Google Korea was quoted as saying by Yonhap."The
   collected personal information has never been illicitly used."Google
   Street View provides panoramic views from various positions along many
   streets in the world. Launched in 2007 and originally covering only
   several US cities, it has since expanded to more cities worldwide.In 2005
   the South's presidential office expressed concern about the US giant's
   Google Earth service, which shows satellite photos of sensitive facilities
   in the country.It said the service sparked secur ity concerns in a country
   still technically at war with North Korea.(Description of Source: Hong
   Kong AFP in English -- Hong Kong service of the independent French press
   agency Agence France-Presse)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   71) Back to Top
   Further on ROK Vowing To 'Act Resolutely' Against DPRK Provocation - AFP
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 13:11:07 GMT
   Tuesday to "act resolutely" against future provocations after North Korea
   fired an artillery barrage into waters near the two countries' disputed
   Yellow Sea border.

   Some 10 of the 130 shells which were fired Monday evening la nded on the
   South's side of the line, Seoul military officials said, heightening
   months of tensions.The South's military in a faxed message to the North
   described the firing as a "grave provocation" that violates the armistice
   and a non-aggression agreement, a spokesman for the Joint Chiefs of Staff
   told AFP."If North Korea continues its provocative actions, without
   apologising for the Cheonan incident, South Korea will act resolutely,"
   the spokesman quoted the message as saying.Tensions have risen sharply
   since late May when South Korea and the United States, citing a
   multinational investigation, accused the North of torpedoing one of
   Seoul's warships, the Cheonan, near the contested border.The South staged
   its largest-ever anti-submarine exercise as a show of force in response to
   the March sinking. The five-day exercise ended just before the North's
   artillery salvos began.The North, which denies involvement in the Cheonan
   case, describes the South's war games -- and an earlier joint exercise
   with US forces -- as a military provocation designed to trigger a war.It
   has threatened retaliation, including with nuclear weapons, to any attack.
   Rodong Sinmun, newspaper of the ruling communist party, repeated the
   threat Tuesday.The North "will clearly show to those buoyed by war fever
   what a real war is like, any time it deems necessary, through a war of
   retaliation of its own style based on its nuclear deterrent", it said.The
   US State Department criticised the artillery barrage."It is not a helpful
   sign by North Korea and this is exactly the kind of behaviour that we
   would like to see North Korea avoid," said spokesman Philip
   Crowley.Relations worsened further after North Korea last weekend seized a
   South Korean squid fishing boat operating off the east coast. Seoul has
   urged Pyongyang to free the 41-ton boat and its seven crewmen -- four
   South Koreans and three Chinese -- as soon as possible.The South's coastg
   uard has said the boat was presumed to have been operating in an exclusive
   economic zone proclaimed by the North when seized. There has been no word
   from Pyongyang.Army colonels from North Korea and the US-led United
   Nations Command met Tuesday at the border truce village of Panmunjom for a
   fourth round of talks about the sinking of the Cheonan, but made little
   progress.The UN Command has been based in the South since the end of the
   1950-1953 Korean War to enforce the armistice which ended the conflict.A
   UNC spokesman told AFP the two sides met for more than two hours.
   "Basically, they agreed to meet again at the colonel level but they did
   not set a date," he said.The North took issue with the "unsavoury" and
   "double-dealing" attitude of the US side in previous rounds of talks,
   Pyongyang's official news agency said.Its delegation repeated demands to
   send a team of investigators to the South to inspect evidence dredged from
   the seabed, including what Seoul says is part of a North Korean
   torpedo.South Korea has rejected the demand, saying the UN Command should
   handle the case as a serious breach of the armistice.(Description of
   Source: Hong Kong AFP in English -- Hong Kong service of the independent
   French press agency Agence France-Presse)

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   72) Back to Top
   North Korea Opens Account With Global Video-Sharing Wesite YouTube - AFP
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 12:00:04 GMT
   (Description of Source: Hong Kong AFP in English -- Hong Kong service of
   the independent French press agency Agence France-Presse)

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   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   73) Back to Top
   UNC, DPRK Finish Colonel-Level Talks With No Progress
   Xinhua: "UNC, DPRK Finish Colonel-Level Talks With No Progress" - Xinhua
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 11:40:42 GMT
   (UNC) and DPRK military authorities on Tuesday finished the fourth round
   of colonel-level meeting without much progress, local media reported
   citing a UNC official.

   The two-hour meeting, convened the fourth time since July 15 to discuss
   the sinking of a South Korean warship blamed on the Democratic People's
   Republic of Korea (DPRK), only confirmed their differing stance on t he
   issue and ended without a new round of talks proposed, the Yonhap News
   Agency said.Pyongyang has repeatedly denied its role in the sinking in
   March, which killed 46 South Korean sailors. The current series of
   meetings precede general-level talks over the sinking, the UNC has
   said.The two have held 16 general-level talks since 1998 as part of a
   trust-building measure, and the latest round was held in March
   2009.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official
   news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))

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   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   74) Back to Top
   DPRK Party Organ Criticizes US Scheme for 'New Cold War'
   Pyongyang Korean Central Broadcasting Station via Satellite in Korean
   carried the following at 0900 GMT; OSC processed the below Rodong Sinmun
   "signed article" as first referent item; KCNA headline: "Scheme For New
   Cold War Blasted" - KCNA
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 11:26:27 GMT
   (Description of Source: Pyongyang KCNA in English -- Official DPRK news
   agency. URL: http://www.kcna.co.jp)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   75) Back to Top
   DPRK Reportedly Registers, Posts Videos on YouTube
   Updated version: upgrading precedence, rewording headline; Report by Sam
   Kim: "N. Korea goes YouTube-savvy in it s propaganda offensive" - Yonhap
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 10:46:47 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   76) Back to Top
   Police Search Google Korea for Alleged Breach of Privacy - AFP
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 10:13:15 GMT
   searched the offices of Google Korea to investigate whether it breached
   privacy law in collecting information for its Street View service, an
   officer said.
   &lt; br&gt;"We searched Google Korea as it is suspected of breaching the law on
   the protection of privacy in the course of collecting information needed
   for its Street View service," the officer involved in the case told AFP on
   condition of anonymity.There was no immediate comment from Google
   Korea.Armed with a search warrant, a total of 16 investigators were
   mobilised for the search which lasted for several hours, Yonhap news
   agency said.Police seized computer hard discs and other material. After
   analysing the material they plan to summon the company's staff for
   questioning, it said.Google Street View provides panoramic views from
   various positions along many streets in the world. Launched in 2007 and
   originally covering only several US cities, it has since expanded to more
   cities worldwide.In 2005 the South's presidential office expressed concern
   about the US giant's Google Earth service, which shows satellite photos of
   sensitive facilities in the country.It said the ser vice sparked security
   concerns in a country still technically at war with North
   Korea.(Description of Source: Hong Kong AFP in English -- Hong Kong
   service of the independent French press agency Agence France-Presse)

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   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   77) Back to Top
   ROK Military Vows To 'Act Resolutely' Against DPRK Provocation - AFP
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 08:46:53 GMT
   to "act resolutely" against future provocations after North Korea fired an
   artillery barrage into waters near the two countries' disputed Yellow Sea
   border.

   Some 10 of the 130 shells which were fired Monday even ing landed on the
   South's side of the line, Seoul military officials said, heightening
   months of tensions.The South's military in a faxed message to the North
   described the firing as a "grave provocation" that violates the armistice
   and a non-aggression agreement, a spokesman for the Joint Chiefs of Staff
   told AFP."If North Korea continues its provocative actions, without
   apologising for the Cheonan incident, South Korea will act resolutely,"
   the spokesman quoted the message as saying.Tensions have risen sharply
   since late May when South Korea and the United States, citing a
   multinational investigation, accused the North of torpedoing one of
   Seoul's warships, the Cheonan, near the contested border.The South staged
   its largest-ever anti-submarine exercise as a show of force in response to
   the March sinking. The five-day exercise ended just before the North's
   artillery salvos began.The North, which denies involvement in the Cheonan
   case, describes the South 's war games -- and an earlier joint exercise
   with US forces -- as a military provocation designed to trigger a war.It
   has threatened retaliation, including with nuclear weapons, to any attack.
   Rodong Sinmun, newspaper of the ruling communist party, repeated the
   threat Tuesday.The North "will clearly show to those buoyed by war fever
   what a real war is like, any time it deems necessary, through a war of
   retaliation of its own style based on its nuclear deterrent", it said.The
   US State Department criticised the artillery barrage."It is not a helpful
   sign by North Korea and this is exactly the kind of behaviour that we
   would like to see North Korea avoid," said spokesman Philip
   Crowley.Crowley said it was unclear what Pyongyang hoped to achieve by
   such "chest thumping" and said: "The firing of a very large number of
   rounds in the region is the last thing we want to see and is not the best
   way to reduce tension."Relations worsened further after North Korea last
   weekend seized a South Korean squid fishing boat operating off the east
   coast.Seoul has urged Pyongyang to free the 41-ton boat and its seven
   crewmen -- four South Koreans and three Chinese -- as soon as possible.The
   South's coastguard has said the boat was presumed to have been operating
   in an exclusive economic zone proclaimed by the North when seized. There
   has been no word from Pyongyang on the incident.Army colonels from North
   Korea and the US-led United Nations Command met Tuesday at the border
   truce village of Panmunjom for a fourth round of talks about the sinking
   of the Cheonan, but appeared to make little progress.The UN Command has
   been based in the South since the end of the 1950-1953 Korean War to
   enforce the armistice which ended the conflict.A UNC spokesman told AFP
   the two sides met for more than two hours. "Basically, they agreed to meet
   again at the colonel level but they did not set a date," he said.At a
   previous round of talks the North demanded the right to send investigators
   to the South to inspect evidence dredged from the seabed, including what
   Seoul says is part of a North Korean torpedo.South Korea has rejected the
   demand, saying the UN Command should handle the case as a serious breach
   of the armistice.(Description of Source: Hong Kong AFP in English -- Hong
   Kong service of the independent French press agency Agence France-Presse)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   78) Back to Top
   DPRK Website Derides Situation of ROK 'Pressed' by US To Join Iran
   Sanctions
   Commentary by Kim So'ng-ho: "Colonial Running Dog's Inescapable Fate";
   This appears to be DPRK media's first mention of US req uest for ROK
   cooperation with sanctions on Iran, as cited in first referent item;
   KPNK1STM - Uriminjokkkiri
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 05:26:34 GMT
   coordinator" (chejae chojo'nggwan) -- who crawled into South Korea not
   long ago -- reportedly pressed the gang of traitors to actively join the
   move of imposing sanctions against Iran, at the place where he held
   confabs with puppets to strengthen sanctions against the Republic.

   The puppets -- who regard the United States as their master and who give
   it everything they can possibly give while despicably begging it for the
   maneuver of sanctions against the Republic -- have come to (a situation
   where they) have no option but to accept their master's demand against
   their will.

   By nature, it is not something desirable for the puppets to join the
   United States' sanction game against Iran. This is because the puppets
   import major strategic materials such as crude oil from the Middle East,
   including Iran, and because enormous losses will be brought to the South
   Korean economy should Iran take retaliatory actions. In addition, they
   will suffer enormous political losses, because they will be isolated and
   rejected by Iran and other Middle Eastern nations.

   For this reason, the puppets, while trying not to displease the United
   States which is getting heated up in the maneuver of imposing sanctions
   against Iran, have believed that their master would at least "understand"
   their difficult position. However, the United States -- which regards the
   Lee Myung-bak (Yi Myo'ng-pak, Ri Myo'ng-pak) gang only as unimportant
   puppets that sit down, if told to sit down, and stand up, if told to stand
   up -- has had absolutely no reason to leave them alone.

   This time, the United States loudly raved that (the "sanction
   coordinator") would visit South Korea to hold confabs for the racket of
   anti-Republic sanctions. But inwardly, while seeking "sanctions" against
   us, he crawled into South Korea more importantly for the purpose of
   pressing the puppets, who are inactive in imposing sanctions against Iran.
   This can be seen from the fact that the members of the so-called US
   "sanction team" while visiting frequently the "Ch'o'ngwadae" (ROK Office
   of the President), the "Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade," the
   "Ministry of Finance and Economy" (chaejo'ng kyo'ngjebu, as published),
   and other relevant agencies, as if they were darting in and out of their
   houses, spent many hours during their two-night and three-day stay in
   Seoul in pressing them to join the sanctions against Iran.

   Succumbing to US pressure, the puppets are currently intensely scurrying
   about in, among other things, investigating the Iranian bank in South
   Korea.

   The fact that the Lee Myung-bak gang has come to have no option but to ful
   ly accept the United States' totally unjust demand for joining the
   sanctions against Iran completely lays bare what the "strategic alliance,"
   "blood ties," and so on -- which the United States and the South Korean
   puppets babble about whenever they open their mouths -- really are.

   After taking power, the Lee Myung-bak gang has run amok with blood-shot
   eyes in implementing the pro-US policy of following the United States
   while raving about (giving) "priority to ROK-US relations" and while
   talking about "traditional friendly relations" and so on more loudly than
   ever before. There would be no end if all the despicable, pro-US
   submissive acts committed by the gang of traitors -- which has completely
   offered everything to its master regardless of what can be given and what
   cannot be given -- were to be listed; it has obediently offered its beef
   market to the United States and played the game of postponing the
   "transfer of wart ime operational control."

   Even if it has committed such ugly, nation-selling acts of betraying the
   nation, the gang of traitors has blown its own trumpet while saying,
   "Never has there been a time when 'ROK'-US relations were as good as they
   are today," and has impertinently bustled about, while believing that
   everything will go well if they gain the favor of the United States.

   However, the United States -- which is seeking to gain global hegemony --
   has had absolutely no reason to consider the circumstances of the puppets
   who are nothing more than running dogs. The United States is the one that
   does not hesitate to do anything if it is for its own strategic interests.
   The United States' hidden intention is to completely use South Korea's
   human and material resources through the puppets for its aggressive,
   anti-Republic maneuvers and for its strategy for global hegemony.

   Through the incident this time, it has been even more clearly revea led
   that the "strategic alliance," "blood ties," and so on are nothing more
   than an outwardly handsome signboard for the United States to use the
   South Korean puppets as servants, and that they are only a facade for the
   puppets to justify their ugly, flunkeyist nation-selling acts.

   What is clear is the fact that the puppets -- who stake their fate on the
   United States and who remain alive by adulating and flattering to it --
   have become placed in a more difficult dilemma by joining the sanctions
   against Iran.

   The gang of traitors -- which has been condemned and rejected because it
   has offered South Korean youths and men as the victims of the master's
   "anti-terror campaign" -- has, to add insult to injury, now come to have
   no option but to join the game of sanctions against Iran, which will
   squeeze the neck of its economy; this is truly an inescapable fate of the
   poor colonial running dogs that serve the United States as a master.
   The problem is the fact that, as long as the pro-US, nation-selling forces
   such as traitor Lee Myung-bak stay in power, the United States will
   continue to put forth such brigandish demands, and in this course the
   South Korean people's disgrace and humiliation will become even more
   unbearable.

   If the South Korean people are to be freed from today's misfortunes and
   agony caused by the US imperialists' military occupation and domination,
   they should kindle the flame of anti-US struggle even more fiercely and
   should immediately wipe out the Lee Myung-bak herd of traitors, which is
   engrossed only in committing the nation-selling acts of betraying the
   nation while giving no heed to the dignity and interests of the nation.

   (Description of Source: Pyongyang Uriminjokkkiri in Korean -- External
   website targeting overseas Koreans; technically administered out of
   Shenyang, China but reportedly run by the Workers Party of Korea United
   Front Department; URL: http://ww
   w.uriminzokkiri.com)Attachments:IranSanctionsUMK06Aug10.pdfIranSanctionsUMK06Aug10b.pdf

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   79) Back to Top
   US Aid Delivered in 'Correct' Manner To Mend US-Pakistani Ties
   Editorial: "An opportunity in the midst of natural calamity" - The Nation
   Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 03:28:40 GMT
   (Description of Source: Bangkok The Nation Online in English -- Website of
   a daily newspaper with "a firm focus on in-depth business and political
   coverage." Widely read by the Thai elite. Audited hardcopy circulation of
   60,000 as of 2009. URL: http://www.n ationmultimedia.com.)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   80) Back to Top
   Thai Article Says Country Becoming Hub of Narcotics Trafficking
   Article by Thanok Bangphon: "Foreigners Turn To Use Thailand as Hub of
   Making Steroid Drug" - Post Today Online
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 16:25:59 GMT
   But, when the case is considered in detail, it does not look like an
   ordinary one as the Narcotics Suppression Bureau had received the help
   from the US Drug Enforcement Administration officials in Thailand and
   Swedish officials before arresting the suspect. This indicates that a lot
   of preparations wer e made by the personnel for the arrest.

   Police Major General Saengsun Kannasut, commander of the Narcotics
   Suppression Region 1, told journalists about the arrest of Kim Roger
   Erikson, 29, a Swede. He said that Erikson was allegedly a notorious
   international narcotics trafficker. He said that Erikson started his
   illegal trade by selling steroid drugs over the Internet by using Thailand
   as his manufacturing hub. The police spent more than a year to trace him.
   Eventually, the police noticed that a Swede had suspiciously ordered some
   equipment and chemical solutions.

   The police took aerial photos of Erikson's house, around 2-rai plot (1 Rai
   = 1,600 sq.m.), in Tambon Sakphong, Klaeng District, Rayong. The house is
   only 100 m. away from Sanam Ratanawat Temple. The police noticed that
   Erikson had modified his garage. The garage initially housed two luxurious
   cars. He added two more rooms to use the garage as a laboratory for
   manufacturing methamphetamine and ice drug or crystal methamphetamine
   hydrochloride.

   The police have learned that Erikson had been in Thailand for three years.
   He left and reentered Thailand several times as he needed to return to
   Sweden for the trial of a firearm case.

   Apart from using the house to manufacture drugs, he also has been in
   contact with the Bandidos gang of chopper motorcyclists. The Bandidos has
   a worldwide network, and the Bandidos gangsters helped smuggle chemical
   solutions, which were used to prepare ice drug, for Erikson. Several
   government agencies did not know that the solutions are used to make ice
   drug.

   Saengsun said that he had lab officials from the Office of Narcotics
   Control Board to check the solutions and that the officials confirmed that
   the solutions could be use to prepare narcotics. He said the officials
   were surprised to see the drug-manufacturing equipment because the
   equipment was much more advanced than the equipment of Thai officials.

   The chemical sol ution, found in the refrigerator of Erikson, was
   methamphetamine hydrochloride or pure amphetamine. Erikson's friends, who
   were chemists, helped him in the preparation of drugs. The police also
   found books about the chemicals and instructions for preparing the ice
   drug and methamphetamine.

   Although the police have strong evidence against him, Erikson has denied
   the allegation. During interrogation carried out, with his wife acting as
   an interpreter, Erikson claimed that he was just preparing a new
   dish-cleaning solution.

   "The suspect was really making a dish cleaner and liquid soap for hand
   wash. At first, he denied the charge, but when we showed the evidence, he
   denied some of the evidence," Saengsun said.

   A few days after the Erikson's arrest, Saengsun has led the police to raid
   a house at 3 Soi Sutprasoet 7, Bangkhlo Subdistrict, Bangkholaem District,
   Bangkok. The raid followed the tip-off that the house was used as a base
   to prepare steroid drugs and Viagra-equivalent drugs without license.

   The raid was conducted with the cooperation between the Thai police and US
   officials. The Thai police were alerted that an American was preparing
   steroid drugs in Thailand. A subsequent investigation found that the
   drugs-making base was in Charoen Krung.

   Rung Sunthonkanit, 41, was arrested while packing the bottles of drugs as
   mail parcels. She said that the person who owned the drug manufacturing
   facility was Roman Adam, 29. Adam is an American who lives in Hong Kong.

   Rung said that Adam rented her house for 10,000 baht (B) a month and hired
   her to make and deliver the drugs for him for B 50,000 a month. The
   American supplied chemicals for her for the preparation of the drugs and
   taught her how to prepare it.

   Adam received orders from Internet via the astealth website and had the
   drug delivered only by post. Most of the buyers are in the United States,
   South American, and Asian countries.

   The drug was packaged in tubes or plastic bags, and well hidden in bottles
   of various types of chili paste. The police took nearly two years to
   investigate before they found out that the drug was prepared at a house of
   Soi Charoenkrung, 79, and the money was transferred to Adam via Western
   Union service.

   "Adam earned around B 4-7 million a month. The cost of the drug per bottle
   is B 100 but he sold it for $100 per bottle abroad. He also has a
   manufacturing base in Hong Kong, and he drives Lamborghini car, and the
   authorities will launch further investigations to seize his assets,"
   Saengsun said.

   The police could only charge Rung with making medicine without
   registration, which caries a maximum fine of B 5,000 and a maximum
   three-year imprisonment and manufacturing medicine without permission,
   which carries a maximum fine of B 10,000 and a maximum five-year
   imprisonment. Rung also faces the charge of making fake medicine, which
   carries a jail term bet ween three to 20 years.

   "This is because steroid in our country is controlled under the food and
   drug law but in the United States, it is considered as a narcotic. We use
   different laws. That is why, more and more foreign criminals are using
   Thailand as a hub of preparing drugs and steroids. The cost and penalties
   here are low," Saengsun said.

   It is sad that Bangkok has become a hub for the preparation and exporting
   of narcotics. The situation has worsened a lot as so many foreign
   criminals are reaching Thailand to commit the crimes and the local police
   have failed to handle the situation. So, who will tackle this problem?

   (Description of Source: Bangkok Post Today Online in Thai -- Website of a
   sister daily publication of the English-language Bangkok Post providing
   good coverage of political and economic issues and in-depth reports on
   defense and military affairs. Owned by the Post Publishing Co., Ltd.
   Audited hardcopy circulation of 50,000 as of 2009. URL:
   http://www.posttoday.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   81) Back to Top
   UK Ambassador Urges ROK To Join Iran Sanctions
   Updated version: rewording headline, adjusting tags, and adding source
   graphic; Report on interview with Martin Uden, British Ambassador to South
   Korea, by Christine Kim; date and place not given: "U.K. Ambassador Urges
   ROK to Join Iran Sanctions"; For assistance with multimedia elements,
   contact the OSC Customer Center at (800) 205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - JoongAng Daily Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 01:30:44 GMT
   Great Britain wants K orea to lend a hand in imposing sanctions on Iran,
   and it is willing to help the Korean government with the procedures, the
   British ambassador to Korea said yesterday.The British Embassy recently
   shared information with the Korean government regarding an Iranian bank
   suspected of aiding nuclear proliferation in Iran, according to another
   British diplomatic source who sat in on an exclusive interview with
   Ambassador Martin Uden by the JoongAng Daily and JoongAng Ilbo."We have
   been talking about the UN Security Council sanctions, about the U.K.'s own
   actions domestically for Bank Mellat, and about the implications to
   Seoul," said the source.Uden urged the Korean government to proceed with
   sanctions, because "(Korea's) interest in the Middle East will be
   threatened if we see an escalation of tension there."Bank Mellat, which
   has been accused of illegal financial transactions to aid Iranian nuclear
   proliferation, currently operates a major branch in Seoul.The U.S. has
   been pressuring the Korean government to close the branch, and local
   officials are still debating the matter. The UN announced new sanctions
   against Iran on July 9 for failing to comply with international
   nonproliferation obligations.Emphasizing that there should be more
   pressure on Iran, the ambassador pointed out that previous sanctions have
   so far not had the desired effect."We don't have any objection on Iran
   following a peaceful nuclear program, but there are suspicions," said
   Uden. "I believe there's more we should be doing. And it's quite clear at
   the moment that the sanctions aren't working."The ambassador showed
   distrust of Iran's uranium enrichment program and said that "it should be
   under proper international safeguards under the (International Atomic
   Energy Agency)."International news reports have indicated that Iran since
   February has been in possession of uranium enriched up to 20 percent,
   which can easily be turned into weapons-grade material.Korea is in a tight
   spot with Iran, its main supplier of oil. Korea has no oil reserves of its
   own. Still, Uden said, if Korea were to lose its bilateral trade with the
   Middle Eastern country, which measures up to $10 billion a year, it would
   be incomparable to "what could happen further down the road.""I think if
   we were to allow Iran to go forward and develop a nuclear program, you're
   really going to suffer," said the ambassador. Uden said that Great Britain
   does not import oil from Iran. He said Britain's bilateral trade with Iran
   has been about $632 million a year - with about $537 million of that going
   from Britain to Iran.The British ambassador wanted to respond to a
   previous interview with the Iranian ambassador to Korea, Mohammad Reza
   Bakhtiari, because Uden believed "readers should have both sides of the
   story." It has been rare for ambassadors in Korea to speak out against
   each other on a specific issue.The Irani an ambassador warned in the
   interview that there would be economic consequences if Korea were to apply
   stricter sanctions."As an increasingly (significant) diplomatic member of
   the international community, and as host of the G-20," Uden said, Korea
   should take a stronger stance in facing Iran."With strength comes
   responsibility," Uden added. Because of the large trade relationship Korea
   has with Iran, the British ambassador feels if South Korea imposes
   sanctions, it would send a "potent message.""If the international
   community sends a really clear signal to Tehran, they will return to the
   negotiating table and we'll take off the sanctions. That's what we're
   trying to do here," he said.

   (Description of Source: Seoul JoongAng Daily Online in English -- Website
   of English-language daily which provides English-language summaries and
   full-texts of items published by the major center-right daily JoongAng
   Ilbo, as well as unique report age; distributed as an insert to the Seoul
   edition of the International Herald Tribune; URL:
   http://joongangdaily.joins.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   82) Back to Top
   Iranian Military Developments, 24-30 July 2010 - Iran -- OSC Summary
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 21:53:29 GMT
   The following are highlights of Iranian military developments as reported
   in various Iranian domestic and opposition websites monitored by OSC.
   Technological Advancements IRGC Deputy Commander Says Iran Capable of
   Mass-Producing Ballistic Missiles

   - the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps deputy commander of Brig. G eneral
   Hoseyn Salami on 25 July announced that Iran is now capable of
   mass-producing ballistic missiles, the Fars News Agency reported the same
   day. He said Iran has made great progress in developing the technology and
   production capabilities to produce not only ballistic missiles but also
   air defense systems in large quantities. The report observed that the
   Defense Ministry's Aerospace Organization has made great achievements in
   designing and producing missiles, including the surface-to-surface
   solid-fuel Sejjil missiles; the long-range Shahab-3 ballistic missile,
   which has a range of up to 1,200 miles; and the Zelzal and Fateh missiles.
   The solid-fuel, two-stage Sejjil missile, which is considered to be the
   third generation of ballistic missiles built in Iran, has a longer range
   than that of the Shahab-3 model and entered large-scale production last
   year (Tehran Fars News Agency in Persian and English - hardline
   pro-Ahmadinezhad news agency; headed as of December 2007 by H amid Reza
   Moqaddamfar, who was formerly an IRGC cultural officer. URL:
   www.farsnews.com).

   Military-Related Activities Supreme Leader Appoints New Deputy Chief of
   Armed Forces Joint Staff

   - Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamene`i issued a decree on 30 July
   appointing Rear Admiral (first name not provided) Saleh as Armed Forces
   Deputy Chief of the Joint Staff for Plan and Budget Affairs, IRNA reported
   the same day. Speaking at an introduction ceremony attended by Khamene`i
   and Saleh, Armed Forces Chief of the Joint Staff Major General Hassan
   Firuzabadi said the Iranian armed forces should be more vigilant, more
   careful, and more informed than ever as enemies have widened the scope of
   their activities against the Islamic republic and the Iranian nation
   (Tehran IRNA in Persian and English - pro-Ahmadinezhad official news
   agency, controlled by the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance. URL:
   www.irna.ir). Iran Exporting Military Equipment to 40 Countries

   - The Fars News Agency on 24 July quoted Yadollah Javani, a senior Iranian
   military expert, as saying the sanctions imposed by the United Nations
   Security Council, the United States, and the European Union would not have
   any impact on Iran's military capabilities, and he stated that the country
   is currently exporting arms and military equipment to 40 countries. He
   explained that Iran launched an arms development program during the
   1980-88 Iran-Iraq war to compensate for a weapons embargo imposed by the
   United States, adding that the country has been producing advanced weapon
   systems since 1992 and today manufactures a range of advanced weapon
   systems, including tanks, armored personnel carriers, missiles, and
   fighter planes. Air Force To Stage Maneuvers

   - Deputy Commander for Operations Major General Mohammad Alavi on 26 July
   announced that the Air Force will stage "massive and countrywide"
   maneuvers and air drills between 31 July and 7 August, Tabnak reported the
   same day. "The war games will be called Fada`ian-e Hareem-e Velayat and
   will involve more than 40 fighters and bombers from bases throughout the
   country," he announced. A variety of aircraft - including F-4 Phantoms
   (photo below), the No rthrop F-5, the F-7 Chinese-built version of the
   Russian MiG-21, and Russian Sukhoi SU-24 fighter-bombers - from air bases
   in Tehran, Tabriz, Dezful, Bushehr, Bandar Abbas, Shiraz, and Esfahan will
   take part in the maneuvers in Hamedan. Alavi said the aircraft would take
   part in gunnery competitions involving a variety of air-to-surface
   ammunitions and conduct night bombing operations for the first time. He
   added that the Air Force would practice refueling operations in a bid to
   exercise long-distance flights by its F-4 and SU-24 jets. He also stated
   that four unmanned aerial aircraft and electronic warfare jets will also
   be involved in the maneuvers (Tabnak in Persian - a conservative website
   associated with Expediency Counci l Secretary and former IRGC commander
   Major General Mohsen Reza'i. URL: www.tabnak.ir).

   The Fars News Agency on 26 July quoted Deputy Air Force Commander Mohsen
   Darrehbaghi as saying that a new set of advanced air-to-surface missiles
   and guns would be used in the military exercises.

   Basij Commander Says New Bases Being Established

   - Basij Commander Brig. General Mohammad-Reza Naqdi announced on 28 July
   that 7,000 new Basij bases will be established by the end of the current
   Iranian year 1389 (ending 20 March 2011), Basij News reported the
   following day. Speaking at a gathering of leaders of the Basij force in
   Zanjan, Naqdi urged militia members to intensify efforts in the context of
   their "spiritual movement to manage the country." He also stated that the
   Basij is creating a "hejab and morality network" throughout the country
   designed to educate provincial officials and administrators regarding
   their responsibilities in enforcing Isl amic dress and morality codes
   (Basij News Agency in Persian - website of the Basij, or paramilitary
   forces; as of June 2008, Basij forces merged with those of Pasdaran or the
   Islamic Revolution Guards Corps and came under the latter's control. URL:
   http://www.basijnews.ir). Official Statements US Warships Easy Targets for
   Iranian Navy - Admiral Morteza Saffari, former commander of the IRGC Navy,
   said Iranian naval forces are capable of repelling possible attacks on the
   country and claimed that, in the event of war, each United States warship
   would be swarmed by more than 100 Iranian military vessels and would be
   "easy targets," the Fars News Agency reported on 25 July. The report cited
   an interview published by the weekly magazine Panjareh in which Saffari
   pointed to the presence of more than 100 foreign military vessels in the
   Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman and described them as targets of
   opportunity. He explained that each United States warship carries a large
   crew and that Iran is able to target a number of them, thereby inflicting
   heavy losses of men and material on the enemy forces. "As soon as the
   Supreme Leader (Ayatollah Khamene`i ) wishes, or in case the enemy dares
   to pose the smallest threat against the Islamic regime, all the IRGC
   troops, together with Basij forces who have had the necessary training,
   are ready to rapidly react," Saffari added. The report noted that, in the
   wake of intensified threats by the United States and Israel, the exclusive
   responsibility to safeguard the Persian Gulf has been turned over to the
   IRGC, which has pre-positioned missile batteries capable of destroying any
   target throughout the Persian Gulf. It also warned that senior Iranian
   military officials have repeatedly warned that Iran would close the Strait
   of Hormuz if Israel or the United States were to launch an attack against
   the country (Tehran Panjareh in Persian - conservative weekly owned by
   anti-Ahmadinezhad Majles Deputy Alireza Zakani). Senior Military
   Commanders Say US and Israel Are Unable To Attack Iran, Warn of
   Repercussions

   - Armed Forces Deputy Chief of the Joint Staff for Cultural Affairs and
   Defense Publicity Brig. General Mas`ud Jazayeri claimed that the United
   States and Israel are unable to launch military attacks on Iran but warned
   that, in the event of such an attack, Iran is prepared to counter
   effectively, the Fars News Agency reported on 26 July. "The enemy has
   devised many scenarios, but it is unable to successfully implement them.
   Iran, too, has drawn precise plans for confronting possible threats," he
   said in an exclusive interview with Fars. Jazayeri reiterated Iran's
   defensive and offensive capabilities and noted: "The Islamic Republic of
   Iran's strategic depth stretches deep into the United States of America.
   The enemy is well aware of Iran's military and political power and
   strength and is informed of our strategic depth to some extent. Therefore
   , it is not able to launch hasty actions against the Islamic republic."
   Jazayeri (photo below ) described "the recently intensified war rhetoric"
   against Iran as nothing more than "political bluff," and he claimed that
   the many problems confronting the United States and Israel, coupled with
   their limited military resources, would preclude any attack on Iran, which
   he said would result in a new crisis in the region. The report said he was
   alluding to recent reports that Republicans in the United States Congress
   have introduced a measure that supports an Israeli bombing campaign
   against Iranian nuclear sites.

   Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi said there was a low probability of an
   attack against Iran by the United States and Israel, the Ministry of
   Defense web site reported on 24 July. Commenting on support by Republicans
   in the US Congress for an Israeli military strike against Iran and the
   increased use of threats by American and Israeli officials , Vahidi told
   reporters that Washington is creating tension in the region in order to
   advance a "propaganda campaign" that is primarily for domestic
   consumption. Referring to remarks by some American and Israeli military
   experts about Iran's powerful defensive and offensive capabilities, he
   added, "We, too, advise them (decision makers) not to seek trouble and
   tension in the region." Vahidi stressed that the Iranian armed forces
   enjoy high morale and are eager to repel enemy attacks and defend the
   country's vital interests and territorial integrity (Ministry of Defense
   of the Islamic Republic of Iran web site in Farsi. URL:
   http://mod.ir/).Commander of the Iranian Army Ground Forces Brig. General
   Ahmad-Reza Purdastan warned the United States, Britain, and Israel about
   the serious repercussions of engaging in any new military confrontation in
   the Middle East and the "heavy price" they would pay in case of an attack
   against Iran, the Mehr News Age ncy reported on 28 July. Commenting on a
   23 July statement by Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinezhad that the United
   States and Israel plan to attack two countries in the Middle East within
   the next few months, Purdastan (photo below ) warned: "Americans can be
   certain that, in the event of a ground, naval, or aerial attack against
   our country, they will be faced with a crushing and decisive response that
   will be much more fatal and destructive than their initial" attack. He
   went on to say that the United States, Britain, and Israel should know an
   attack against Iran would "cost their countries dearly. ... I advise
   American, British, and Israeli military commanders and analysts not to res
   ort to another unwise action in order to escape their desperate situation
   caused by failures in the Middle East region." He warned that Iran would
   "severely respond to any attack from land, air, or sea," but he also noted
   that an attack was unlikely due to the c urrent problems facing the United
   States in Iraq and Afghanistan, the low morale of American troops, and
   continuing disagreements between US officials (Tehran Mehr News Agency in
   Persian and English - conservative news agency; run by the Islamic
   Propagation Office, which is affiliated with the conservative Qom
   seminary. URL: www.mehrnews.com).

   Major General Yahya Rahim-Safavi, former commander of the IRGC, told a
   gathering of school teachers in Tehran on 24 July that United States and
   Israel are unlikely to attack Iran due to the country's defensive
   capabilities, Sepah News reported the same day. "They may decide to launch
   an attack against Iran, but they will not be able to determine the
   duration of such a war and when it will end," he noted. Rahim-Safavi, who
   is the military adviser to Ayatollah Khamene`i, predicted that any
   possible attack against Iran would be conducted by air and naval forces
   and that Iran's defensive capabilities are advanced to such a n extent
   that the attackers would regret their action. The Iranian military is a
   great power in the Middle East, and any attack against the country would
   not be without consequences, he stated (Sepah News in Persian - IRGC
   website created in 2006; provides news and information on Iran's armed,
   naval, and ground forces as well as on the Basij and security forces. URL:
   www.sepahnews.ir). Armed Forces Chief Claims US on Imperialist Plot To
   Dominate the World

   - Armed Forces Chief of the Joint Staff Major General Firuzabadi warned
   that the United States has embarked on a new imperialist plot to dominate
   the world's capital resources, the Fars News Agency reported on 25 July.
   "They are organizing a global network of greater imperialism," Firuzabadi
   said during an address to the science board members and professors of the
   National Defense University in Tehran on 25 July. Claiming that the
   objective of US imperialism was to defeat other capitalist powers, he said
   t he recent financial crisis in the United States and Europe was
   engineered within the context of Washington's plan to dominate the world.
   "This new movement is trying to bring down Europe and force Russia and
   China to surrender," Firuzabadi theorized. IRGC Commander Urges
   Preparedness for Soft War

   - IRGC Commander Major General Mohammad-Ali Ja`fari warned that Iran's
   enemies are engaged in a soft war that targets the country's younger
   generation, and he called for further preparedness to confront soft
   threats against the Iranian nation and the Islamic republic, Sepah News
   reported on 24 July. "We are engaged in a soft war with the enemies. Their
   plans and hidden and clear moves in this regard are distinctive," he said,
   adding that the nation does not have an adequate understanding of the true
   threat of such a conflict and that therefore the country, and especially
   its youth, must be more vigilant. Saying the IRGC has "a grave
   responsibility for defending the Islamic revolution and its values and
   achievements," he claimed that this duty is not restricted to times of war
   and that the IRGC is tasked with defending the revolution against any
   manner of threat, including soft ones. Iran Intensifies Security Measures
   Along Borders

   - Minister of Interior Mostafa Moh ammad-Najjar announced that the country
   has further tightened security measures along its borders following the 15
   July terrorist attacks in Zahedan, the capital of the southeastern Sistan
   and Baluchestan Province, the Fars News Agency reported on 29 July. Saying
   a number of security and intelligence measures have been taken to
   strengthen border control and impose restrictions on illegal entry from
   neighboring countries, including roadblocks along roads frequented by
   terrorist groups, the interior minister announced that security and police
   forces killed nine terrorists in recent clashes in this region. Commenting
   on the 15 July explosions in Zahed an, he said: "As we have said before,
   we know the people behind the incident, and we are currently pursuing the
   case," adding that nine individuals had been arrested in connection with
   the terrorist attacks. "Two have been indicted, and seven individuals are
   suspected of aiding and abetting the perpetrators of the attacks," he
   said. Ahmad-Reza Radan

   , deputy commander of the National Police Force, announced on 25 July that
   the country has decided to further tighten security measures along its
   eastern borders after the recent terrorist attacks in Zahedan, the Fars
   News Agency reported the same day. "Control of the country's eastern
   borders will be intensified," Radan said in a ceremony held to introduce
   the new police chief of Iran's western Ilam Province. He added: "The
   recent events in Zahedan and an examination of the existing clues all
   indicate the necessity for paying further attention" to the need to
   enhance security measur es. Radan also revealed that Iran's call for
   further security measures along its shared borders had been presented to
   Pakistani authorities during a recent meeting between security officials
   from the two countries.

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   83) Back to Top
   London Pan-Arab Daily Warns Netanyahu Government Prevents Obama Delivering
   Peace
   Editorial by Jihad al-Khazin: "Applying the Litmus Test" - Al-Hayah Online
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 19:46:38 GMT
   My own view is the same as those of the president and the secretary
   general. I further add that Binyamin Netanyahu is at the head of a fascist
   government that represents the most despicable form of political extremism
   and racism. President Barack Obama has tried to pressure Netanyahu but
   failed. He then fell back on President Mahmud Abbas, because he is an
   easier target.

   Abu-Mazin (Mahmud Abbas) is subjected to enormous pressure that I have
   never seen before on any Palestinian or Arab leader. The United States is
   putting pressure, and so are the European Union, the UN secretary general,
   and certain Arab states. This is in addition to all the Palestinian
   organizations, including the Fatah organization. Abu-Mazin threatened to
   resign if he does not find a way out. I know him very well, and I know
   that he is capable of resigning, as he did when he was prime minister in
   2003.

   In his message, President Barack Obama reminded Abu-Mazin that he is the
   US President that has backed the emergence of a Palestinian state the
   most. He added that, if the Palestinians do not accept direct negotia
   tions, he will then end his help for them. I here content myself with
   citing a comment made by Dan Margalit in Yisra'el HaYom. He said that
   Obama's message looks like it was written by the Likud Central Committee.

   I am still convinced of the good faith of the US President, and his
   commitment to a just solution, but I am convinced also that he just cannot
   deliver. I have found that our brother Amr Musa also appreciates the good
   faith of the President and his commitment to a solution. However, he added
   that the Arabs, represented by the (Arab) Follow Up Committee, are not
   against direct or indirect negotiations, but they need clarifications and
   guarantees so as not to engage in negotiations for the sake of
   negotiations.

   The secretary general spoke about a sound reference and an agenda for
   negotiations, as well as measures against settlement construction, and the
   protection of Arab rights in Jerusalem. Thus, there are neither conditions
   nor a green light in t he Follow Up Committee's message to the US
   President, but requests for guarantees and clarifications, and letting the
   Palestinian president appreciate whether he wants to engage in direct
   negotiations. I personally hope that he will not do that. I absolutely
   cannot see any possible result of such negotiations. If there is a benefit
   in sitting with the Israelis, it is not to give a chance to any party
   accusing the Palestinians of not giving talks a chance. This means that
   Abu-Mazin should put the call for negotiations to the litmus test.

   Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Silvan Shalom said that the three demands of
   the Palestinians for starting direct negotiations are impossible. They
   want negotiations to start where they stopped with Ehud Olmert in 2008 and
   to end with an agreement on complete withdrawal from the occupied
   territories, in addition to the continuation of the settlement
   construction freeze.

   In fact, these demands are not impossible. What is impos sible is that
   Abu-Mazin or anyone else accepts less than that. There is no sense in any
   negotiations without a Palestinian state that forms a geographical entity
   that is viable and with Jerusalem as capital.

   Abu-Mazin has been subjected to contemptible campaigns on the part of his
   political adversaries. However, I know him better than them, and I assert
   that he will not abandon any of the constants. I hope that I will be taken
   at my word if he does the contrary.

   His po sition is in complete contrast to that of the Israeli Government.
   Avigdor Lieberman, the brothel-keeper from Moldova who has become Israel's
   foreign minister, said that he is waiting for the end of the settlement
   construction freeze next month "so that we may lead a normal life," as he
   put it. This means in order for him to resume stealing the homes of
   Palestinians, displacing them, and then asking them to swear the oath of
   allegiance to the state of Nazi war criminals.

   Ther e is no peace with this Israeli Government. It is either surrender or
   resistance.

   (Description of Source: London Al-Hayah Online in Arabic -- Website of
   influential Saudi-owned London pan-Arab daily. URL:
   http://www.daralhayat.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   84) Back to Top
   Iranian Shipping Company Files UK, EU, US Complaints Over Sanctions
   Imposition
   Unattributed report: "Iran's Three Complaints Against Shipping Sanctions"
   - Jam-e Jam Online
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 14:48:27 GMT
   In an interview with Jam-e Jam, Mohammad Hoseyn Dojmar added: "After the
   unilateral sanctions against Iran and the latest sanctions by the EU, the
   shipping company, based on international shipping laws, filed a complaint
   in Britain, the EU, and the US with the help of its lawyers. This
   complaint will be reviewed in the UK by next week." He said: "According to
   international shipping law, shipping companies do not have any
   responsibility for the type of shipments that they carry. The
   responsibility lies with the owner, who has to mention the nature of the
   shipment in the legal documents. Therefore, one cannot impose sanctions
   on, or freeze the bank account of, the Islamic Republic shipping line just
   for the sake of carrying a shipment."

   Dojmar emphasized: "The issue is quite clear and I hope that the
   independent courts of these countries cancel the sanctions imposed against
   the Iranian shipping line." He added: "If any sanctions against the
   shipping line or its sister companies are imposed, it must be according to
   pro of or evidence. If the evidence is just based on the media and they
   want to impose sanctions against a commercial shipping line, their motive
   is clearly political and they are looking for excuses."

   The general manager of the Iranian shipping line added: "There is not even
   one instance about the shipments carried by Islamic Republic shipping line
   that can provide an excuse to the western countries."

   A while back, they had claimed that there were weapons in a chemical
   shipment headed for Syria, even though the owner of the shipment was a
   private company. Despite the controversy that the Zionist media created,
   they could not prove anything.

   He said: "My question is, if the action of the shipping line or the
   shipments that it is carrying is the issue, then why they do not take
   their claims to the legal authorities, so that the parties can bring
   forward their arguments to the court? What we mean is that they should
   submit explicit evide nce. However, when the controversy becomes a media
   style, then it is obvious that the claims against the shipping company are
   baseless and absurd."

   Dojmar emphasized: "To date, there has not been one instance about any
   shipment that has given them an excuse, and this makes us proud." Negative
   Response to Inspection

   In a response to a question regarding any inspection of the Islamic
   Republic shipping line fleet to date, he said: "Based on international
   shipping laws, an inspection is authorized if the country whose flag the
   ship is carrying gives a go ahead. During this time, only one instance
   took place, which faced Iran's negative response."

   With regard to measures intended against the shipping line's sanction, he
   said: "The ultimate aim for sanctions is that they want to stop the
   activities of the shipping line. However, since this fleet is continuing
   its activities with full force, it shows that the sanctions are ineff
   ective with the measures that we have taken. We also had the experience of
   such sanctions earlier, but it had no effect on our activities. Of course,
   it did slow the pace of our activities and made them difficult, but it did
   not affect our overall performance."

   He also mentioned the boost in shipping line activities in the Caspian
   Sea, stating: "Iran has a 20-percent share in the Caspian Sea shipping
   line. Compared to the other countries bordering the sea, our fleet is
   newer and of higher quality."

   The detailed Jam-e Jam interview with the general manager of the Islamic
   Republic shipping company will be published soon.

   (Description of Source: Tehran Jam-e Jam Online in Persian -- website of
   conservative daily published by Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting
   (IRIB), whose head is appointed by the supreme leader; URL:
   http://www.jamejamdaily.net)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   85) Back to Top
   Pakistan Daily Warns Govt Against Western Propaganda Aims At
   Disfiguring ISI
   Editorial: Propaganda of Rogue Spies - Pakistan Observer Online
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 09:57:06 GMT
   PRESIDENT Asif Ali Zardari, in an interview to The Sunday Telegraph, is
   reported to have said that the security forces of the country had been
   cleansed of, what the Western world alleges, rogue elements. He told the
   paper, "I think that everybody is completely accountable now".

   The President has done well in countering the Western propaganda aimed at
   disfiguring the image of Pakistan's security agencies because they are
   seen to be the main hurdle in realization of the nefarious designs of some
   foreign forces against the country. His remarks carry more weight as they
   came in the backdrop of allegations by British Prime Minister David
   Cameron accusing Pakistan of exporting terrorism. However, in our view,
   the President seems to have given not much thought to his remarks as these
   amount to lending credence to the venomous propaganda against our security
   agencies especially the elite organization, the ISI. When you talk about
   cleansing them and that now everyone is accountable, then it invariably
   means you are admitting occurrence of some foul play in the past. This is
   unfortunate as the United States and some of its allies have all along
   directed their guns against ISI and way back when late Benazir Bhutto was
   Prime Minister of the country the Western pressure led to either dismissal
   or transfer of over one hundred experienced hands from the ISI. The
   process continues till now under foreign pressure and inf luence and the
   objective is to weaken this premier intelligence agency that has always
   vigorously guarded the interests of the country and countered moves of the
   enemy. Under these circumstances, it would have been better if the
   President would have made remarks after proper thinking and countered the
   propaganda against our national institutions.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad Pakistan Observer Online in English --
   Website of the pro-military daily with readership of 5,000. Anti-India,
   supportive of Saudi policies, strong supporter of Pakistan's nuclear and
   missile program. Chief Editor Zahid Malik is the author of books on
   nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan; URL: http://www.pakobserver.net)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   86) Ba ck to Top
   Former President Bush Expected in Haiti 10 Aug
   Unattributed report: "George Bush Expected in Haiti This Tuesday" -
   MetropoleHaiti.com
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 14:49:30 GMT
   "President Bush's trip should draw attention to the needs that Haiti
   continues to have and he intends to prompt Americans to give what they can
   to help their neighbors in need," one can read in a communique made public
   by the former American president's entourage.

   Mr. Bush should meet some of those people who are involved in the
   reconstruction of the country.

   We should recall that, on the request of President Obama, the former US
   chief of state visited Haiti first last March. He was accompanied by his
   colleague, (former US President) Bill Clinton, who at the time was making
   his third visit to Haiti.

   The objective was to create the Clinton-Bush Fund for Haiti, an
   institution which is supposed to collect money to help victims of the 12
   January earthquake.

   (Description of Source: Port-au-Prince MetropoleHaiti.com in French --
   Website of Radio Metropole, centrist commercial radio station; URL:
   http://www.metropolehaiti.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   87) Back to Top
   US, India To Chart Bilateral Defense Cooperation Ahead of Minister
   Antonys Visit
   Report by Sandeep Dikshit: India, U.S. Review Defence Cooperation - The
   Hindu Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 05:40:57 GMT
   NEW DELHI: Ahead of Defence Minister A.K. Antony's visit to the United
   States next month, New Delhi and Washington exchanged notes on fostering
   defence cooperation through more equipment sales, greater joint exercises,
   frequent high-level exchanges and the possibility of inking three military
   agreements.Led by Under Secretary of Defence on Policy Michele Flournoy, a
   team from the Pentagon interacted with its Indian counterparts to prepare
   for a meeting of the Defence Policy Group, the joint committee headed by
   top civilian bureaucrats in the two Defence Ministries, that charts
   bilateral defence cooperation."We also want to get some progress ahead of
   (U.S. President) Barack Obama's visit (in November)," Ms. Flournoy told
   journalists here after meeting Mr. Antony, National Security Adviser
   Shivshankar Menon and Defence Secretary Pradeep Kumar. "Natural partner"
   Maintaining that the U.S. viewed India as a "natural partner," the
   Pentagon official indicated Washington' s wish list. It includes
   purchasing more American-origin defence equipment, "realistic" joint
   exercises and stepped up visits by Indian armed forces officers.Ms.
   Flournoy described the three military agreements, which the U.S. has been
   pursuing with India, as "foundational" in nature. This is the same
   terminology she used while interacting with journalists in the U.S. last
   month. But during this interaction, she provided more details of why the
   U.S. wants India to ink the agreements despite its having been
   cold-shouldered on this count for nearly two years.The three "foundational
   agreements" being offered have been inked with many close partners, and
   this has enabled the Pentagon to offer cutting-edge defence technology.
   They also allow the U.S. to "share" the next higher level of technology.
   "It is not a requirement (for closer cooperation). It is a choice of the
   government of India," she clarified."Of course, economics is involved,"
   Ms. Flournoy said, while pointing out that the agreements and weapon
   purchases from the U.S. would fulfil its strategic aim of ensuring
   inter-operability in future and investing in a long term relationship.The
   U.S. feels there has been "tremendous progress" in the number of joint
   exercises, but the need is to make them "meaningful" so that they are
   "reflective of the real world situation." Asked to explain what that
   meant, Ms. Flournoy said the exercises must prepare both sides to jointly
   undertake counter-piracy operations, humanitarian assistance and disaster
   relief."We also have to respond to maritime security and freedom of
   navigation and against those contesting the accepted rules of the world.
   We will have to work to prevent that. We have to be prepared in terms of
   capability."In the area of visits, the Pentagon says although "several
   hundred" Indian military officers have visited the U.S. for course s or
   interaction, it would like to "broaden the range."Asked whether the U.S.
   was monitoring weapon sales to Pakistan in order not to upset the military
   balance with India, Ms. Flournoy pointed out that since terrorism came
   home to Pakistan, there had been a shift in political will, which was
   reflected in the military operations in South Waziristan. U.S. weapon
   sales to Pakistan, she said, were focussed on equipment efficiency to
   support the current counter-insurgency operations.

   (Description of Source: Chennai The Hindu Online in English -- Website of
   the most influential English daily of southern India. Strong focus on
   South Indian issues. It has abandoned its neutral editorial and reportage
   policy in the recent few years after its editor, N Ram, a Left party
   member, fell out with the Bharatiya Janata Party-led government and has
   become anti-BJP, pro-Left, and anti-US with perceptible bias in favor of
   China in its write-ups. Gives good coverage to Left par ties and has
   reputation of publishing well-researched editorials and commentaries; URL:
   www.hindu.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   88) Back to Top
   Indian commerce minister terms proposed US visa fee hike 'discriminatory'
   - PTI News Agency
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 04:38:24 GMT
   Text of report by Indian news agency PTINew Delhi, 10 August: Terming a US
   proposal to increase visa fees as discriminatory, Indian Commerce and
   Industry Minister Anand Sharma Tuesday (10 August) said the increase would
   cost Indian firms 200m dollars extra a year and make them less
   competitive."The bill will ha ve an (estimated) additional cost
   implication of over 200m dollars annually, and an adverse impact on the
   competitiveness and commercial interests of Indian companies," Sharma said
   in a letter to US Trade Representative Ron Kirk.The US Senate on 5 August
   had approved a substantial increase in application fees for H1 B and L
   visas, the most sought after Indian IT (information technology)
   professionals. The hike is proposed to fund a 600m-dollar emergency
   package to improve security along the porous Mexican border.The Senate
   measure increases the visa fee to 2,000 dollars per application on those
   companies that have less than 50 per cent of their employees as American
   citizens.In his letter, Sharma conveyed the concerns of the Indian
   software industry that the increase in US visa fee would adversely impact
   companies of Indian origin, which account for about 12 per cent of the
   total number of visas issued by the US.Sharma said though the need of the
   US government to streng then their border security is understandable, "it
   is inexplicable to our companies to bear the cost of such a highly
   discriminatory law".While the US companies use H-1B and L visas in larger
   numbers, they will not be liable for the increased fees, but Indian
   companies will be affected as they are likely to have more than 50 per
   cent of the their employees on these visas.Sharma further said that the
   Indian software industry is already deeply burdened in the absence of a
   totalization (as received) agreement, requiring them to pay more than 1bn
   dollars every year to the US government in the form of social security,
   with no benefit or prospect of refund.The proposed massive increase in
   visa application fee would primarily affect the top Indian IT companies,
   who rely majorly on these categories of visas to continue with their work
   in the US.Software giant Infosys had said yesterday that the hiked US visa
   fees is discriminatory and did not help create an open, competitiv e
   market.(Description of Source: New Delhi PTI News Agency in English )

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   89) Back to Top
   Xinhua 'Commentary': Is Global Power Really Shifting Eastward?
   Xinhua "Commentary": "Is Global Power Really Shifting Eastward?" - Xinhua
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 02:21:44 GMT
   BEIJING, Aug. 11 (Xinhua) -- The suggestion that global power is now
   shifting from the West to the East is at best a half-truth and therefore
   misleading.

   The power-shift theory is basically drawn from a judgement that the next
   few years will see a dramatic acceleration in the shift of global economic
   powers eastward. But it ignores the very fact that the majority of
   countries in the East are largely developing and poor countries.The theory
   has gained more popularity recently as major developing countries such as
   China and India have been doing well in warding off the impact of the
   global financial crisis while most rich nations were plagued into severe
   economic downturn.With a combined population of some 3 billion, China and
   India, the two vast countries in the East, will reclaim their positions as
   economic giants in this century, some Western media proclaimed.This kind
   of power-shift theory, however, may have neglected an obvious fact that
   the two Asian countries are only developing nations with their per capita
   GDP lagging far behind developed countries, despite economic strides over
   the past decades thanks to their opening-up economic policies.The World
   Bank put China and India's per capita GDP in 2009 at 3,687 and 1,122 U.S.
   dollars respe ctively, ranking 103 and 140 worldwide, whereas the per
   capita GDP of the United States amounted to 46,436 dollars in the
   year.Therefore, the significance of China's and India's soaring GDP should
   not be exaggerated, considering the real scenario where a large proportion
   of people in the two countries are leading a relatively poor life, not to
   mention the huge gaps between the East and the West in technological
   know-how, military capability and political influence on international
   affairs.Undoubtedly, it is true to say that global power is experiencing
   some changes in recent years thanks to the development of economic
   globalization and multipolarization process.More and more countries and
   regions, or international bodies, such as the European Union, BRIC
   countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), the Group of 20, have played
   greater political or economic roles on the world stage after the end of
   the Cold War, during which the world was dominated by two superpowers --
   the U nited States and the Soviet Union.Chinese Foreign Minister Yang
   Jiechi said recently that the world is witnessing a trend that various
   international forces are moving toward a relatively balanced direction, an
   inevitable outcome of multipolarization, economic globalization, and rapid
   scientific and technological revolution.The process toward a multipolar
   world not only involves the rapid development of newly-emerging major
   developing countries, but also the strengthening of many developing
   countries as regional powers, Yang said.This occurred not only in Asia,
   but also in Africa and Latin America, Yang added.In fact,
   multipolarization has become the most significant trend of the modern
   world. Developing countries as a whole, not just those in the East, have
   been gradually rising on the world stage and should have more say on
   international affairs.It's better to say that Western domination of the
   world is being diluted by a multipolar world, in which developing
   countries shou ld have equal rights of development.Meanwhile, an
   outstanding problem at present is that the reasonable rights and
   legitimate demands of developing countries do not receive due respect and
   attention.It's much better for some Western theorists to recognize the
   trend of multipolarization and to help developing countries win equal say
   and rights of development, instead of ringing false alarm on the rise of
   certain major developing countries.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua
   in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences
   (New China News Agency))

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   90) Back to Top
   India says US senator's remarks on IT firm 'unfortunate and avoidable' -
   PTI News Agency
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 14:10:53 GMT
   Text of report by Indian news agency PTINew Delhi, 10 August: Indian
   government Tuesday (10 August) termed as "unfortunate and avoidable"
   remarks by a US senator describing India's IT major Infosys as "chop
   shop"."Infosys is one of the leading companies. It has a global name and
   brand. Any disparaging remark, I would term it unfortunate and avoidable,"
   Commerce and Industry Minister Anand Sharma said in the Rajya Sabha (Upper
   House of Indian Parliament).He was responding to a concern raised
   Shantaram Laxman Naik (Cong) on the remarks by Democrat Senator of New
   York Charles E Schumer.Sharma said while MPs and senators in different
   countries have right to make observations, "Indian IT industry has made
   notable contribution and has acknowledged global presence."Participating
   in a debat e on the Trademark bill, Naik said, "The US senator referred to
   our company as a 'chop shop'. We never called US a 'banana republic' when
   it was facing the worst global economic crisis...we could have called
   Union Carbide as 'slaughter house', but we didn't say so."Criticising
   companies outsourcing American jobs, Schumer had last week described
   Infosys as a "chop shop", a place where stolen cars are dismantled and
   parts sold separately.(Description of Source: New Delhi PTI News Agency in
   English )

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   91) Back to Top
   Indonesia's Cleric Bashir Declared Suspect on Terrorism
   Xinhua: "Indonesia's Cleric Bashir Declared Suspect on Terrorism" - Xinhua
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 04:16:12 GMT
   JAKARTA, Aug. 11 (Xinhua) -- Indonesian police has declared Muslim cleric
   Abu Bakar Bashir suspect on terrorism, national police chief of detective
   Ito Sumardi said here on Wednesday.

   Bashir, 71, was arrested on Monday in West Java by the police's
   anti-terror squad amid a tight security."He (Bashir) has been declared a
   suspect on terrorism. He has involved in a terror plot and persuaded
   others to implicate on terror acts," Sumardi told Xinhua over phone.Police
   spokesman Edward Aritonang has said that the cleric implicates on
   planning, funding and managing militant training at a camp in remote Aceh
   jungle in westernmost of Indonesia, the camp was raid by police in
   February.The chief of detective said Bashir has used the video of the
   training to raise fund among business people.The cleric refused to answer
   q uestions in interrogation and said the arrest was made up by the United
   States.The arrest on Bashir is the third since 2000. He has served over
   three years of imprisonment for conspiracy in Bali bombings in
   2002.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official
   news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   92) Back to Top
   Syrian Press 10 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from the Syrian press on 10 August. To
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735. - Syria -- OSC Summary
   Tuesday August 10, 20 10 20:40:01 GMT
   http://thawra.alwehda.gov.sy/ http://thawra.alwehda.gov.sy)

   In a 375-word article in Al-Ba'th entitled "Antecedents of Murder and its
   Proof," Id Abu-Sikkah, comments on the Israeli prime minister's testimony
   before a commission looking into the deaths of nine Turkish activists
   during the raid on the Freedom Flotilla. He starts by saying: "We once
   said that killing and 'assassination' have been the rule rather than the
   exception in the imagination of Israeli leaders since the establishment of
   their Zionist entity, and even before that! And nothing suggests that they
   might one day re-do their calculations and give up this character, after
   all this long list of victims and martyrs in whose deaths the Israeli
   Mosad was proven to be involved through atrocious crimes to liquidate
   them."The writer adds: "Yesterday, in the latest development in the
   repercussions of the Israeli attack on the Freedom Flotilla, in which nine
   martyrs from neighboring Turkey fell, Binyamin Netanyahu presented a comic
   theatrical scene in front of a commission created by the Israeli
   Government. He did not hesitate to announce Israel's responsibility in the
   crime of 'the attack on the Freedom Flotilla,' but this attack, from his
   point of view, was conducted in accordance with the provisions of
   international law." Abu-Sikkah continues: "That is Israel, that does not
   fear to recognize the material element in each crime it commits, but
   ignores what the jurists call the moral element of the crime, which is,
   every time and every day, (reflected in) its right to kill, assassinate,
   impose siege and displacement, carry out Judaization and the demolition of
   houses and the rape of Arab and Palestinian territories, (in addition to)
   its right to slaughter the elderly, children and women, and pursue and
   arrest whoever it wants."He concludes by saying: "(All this continued)
   until yesterday and the speech of Hizballah's secretary general came to
   restore things to normal, and let procedures follow the right track they
   should be on, so that the Israeli antecedents of murder and assassination
   would not be excluded from the circle of accusation in the assassination
   of martyr Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri. This is what we call
   overwhelming evidence that corresponds to the huge number of Israeli
   agents and spies in Lebanon, and also to Israel's interest in sabotaging
   any national unity and stability in Lebanon." (Description of source:
   Damascus Al-Ba'th Online in Arabic -- Website of the newspaper of the
   ruling Ba'th Party; URL:

   http://www.albaath.news.sy/ http://www.albaath.news.sy)

   In a 285-word commentary in Tishrin entitled "The Negotiations,"
   Izz-al-Din al-Darwish says that "(George) Mitchell's visit to the region
   today does not constitute a story in and of itself, but rather the results
   that this visit will pro duce will be the news, although they will be
   devoted, as it seems, to arranging for the commencement of direct
   negotiations between the Palestinian Authority and Israel, according to
   American sources." Indicating that "there is ample evidence that these
   negotiations, if they are conducted according to what is planned for them
   by the Israelis and the Americans, will represent a new setback for the
   Palestinian cause," al-Darwish notes that "when the Palestinians call for
   a reference, titles, and schedules for these negotiations that is because
   they feel in advance the dangers that might result if they are held
   according to the Israeli-American way.""And that is what some observers
   draw attention to, and stop at at length," the writer adds, "given the
   racist nature of the Netanyahu-Lieberman government, and its basic
   rejection of the principle of peace." He continues: "Netanyahu's
   government wants them (the negotiations) as a co ver for its plans, and to
   pass the time, while the Americans are counting on them, as they look to
   the potential success of the pressure they put on the Palestinian side
   under the cover of the prior Arab approval of these negotiations." He
   concludes: "And certainly, Mitchell, who will begin his meetings today,
   will not deviate from this defined framework for negotiations, at least
   during the current round." (Description of source: Damascus Tishrin Online
   in Arabic -- Website of the government-owned newspaper; URL:

   http://tishreen.info/ http://tishreen.info)

   Al-Watan runs an unattributed 150-word report entitled "Some 70 Million
   Barrels of Oil Our Production in Six Months," in which it indicates that
   "the total oil produced in Syria during the first half of this year
   amounted to 69.903 million barrels of light and heavy oil and condensate,
   with an implementation rate of 106 percent, or 386,000 barrels per day,
   that is, an increase o f 10,986 barrels per day on the same period last
   year." "With regard to gas production," the paper adds, "Syria has
   produced 4.945 billion cubic meters of non-associated and associated gas,
   with a daily average of 27 million cubic meters." (Description of source:
   Damascus Al-Watan Online in Arabic -- Website of the independent daily;
   URL:

   http://www.alwatan.sy/ http://www.alwatan.sy)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   93) Back to Top
   Us Lawmaker Cuts $100 Million Aid To Lebanons Military
   "Us Lawmaker Cuts $100 Million Aid To Lebanons Military" -- The Daily Star
   Headline - The Daily Star Online
   Wedne sday August 11, 2010 01:28:16 GMT
   Wednesday, August 11, 2010

   A top US congressman has blocked $100 million in aid to Lebanon-smilitary,
   saying he cannot be sure the country-s armed forces are notworking with
   Hizbullah.The news sparked criticism from an aide to the Lebanese
   president, who said themoney was needed to underpin the country-s
   sovereignty.Howard Berman, the Democratic chairman of the House Foreign
   Affairs Committee,said in a statement Monday that the hold had been in
   place since August 2,pointing to last week-s deadly clash between Israeli
   and Lebanese troopsalong the countries- shared border.'Until we know more
   about this incident and the nature of Hizbullahinfluence on the Lebanese
   Armed Forces (LAF) - and can assure that theLAF is a responsible actor - I
   cannot in good conscience allow the US tocontinue sending weapons to
   Lebanon,' Berman said.'The incident on the Israel-Lebanon border only one
   day after m y hold wasplaced simply reinforces the critical need for the
   United States to conduct anin-depth policy review of its relationship with
   the Lebanese military,'he added.Relations between Israel and Lebanon have
   been strained in the wake of thedeadly exchange of fire last week that
   killed two Lebanese soldiers and ajournalist, as well as an Israeli
   officer.The standoff was sparked when Israeli troops tried to cut down a
   tree on theborder, prompting the Lebanese to fire.On Monday, Iran offered
   support to Lebanon-s Army.The offer from Iran, which supports Hizbullah,
   could fuel Western concern thatTehran is increasing its influence near
   Israel-s northern border.Iran-s ambassador to Lebanon met Lebanese Army
   chief Jean Kahwaji onMonday and said Tehran was ready to 'cooperate with
   the Lebanese Army inany area that would help (it) in performing its
   national role in defendingLebanon.'Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
   is expected to visit Beirut next month.Meanwhile, State Departm ent
   spokesman Philip Crowley said the United States wasnot planning 'to
   re-evaluate our current military cooperation withLebanon in light of this
   incident,' adding that military cooperation withLebanon remains in US
   interests.'We are not aware that there was any US equipment used during
   theincident,' he told reporters.'We do have training programs with
   Lebanon. It-s hard to saywhether those who were directly involved in this
   incident were part of anyprogram.''The last thing that the US or any other
   friend of Lebanon should do isto weaken the effort to build up our
   national army,' Mohammad Chatah, anadviser to Prime Minister Saad Hariri,
   told the Associated Press on Monday.He added that government officials
   were contacting Washington 'to makesure that there is a better and fuller
   understanding of the situation inLebanon and along the
   border.'Representative Eric Cantor earlier warned that the lines between
   Hizbullah andLebanon-s armed forces had become 'blurred.''The days of i
   gnoring the LAF-s provocations against Israel andprotection of Hizbullah
   in southern Lebanon are over,' added Cantor, thenumber two Republican in
   the House of Representatives.'Lebanon cannot have it both ways. If it
   wants to align itself withHizbullah against the forces of democracy,
   stability and moderation, there willbe consequences,' said Cantor, a
   fierce defender of Israel.Cantor said the United States had provided
   roughly $720 million since 2006 inmilitary aid 'to build up a Lebanese
   fighting force that would serve as acheck on the growing power of the
   radical Islamist Hizbullah movement.'But, he said, 'for the past few
   years, the US and the internationalcommunity looked the other way as the
   lines between Hizbullah and the Lebanesemilitary and government became
   blurred.'In Beirut, Nazem Khoury, an adviser to President Michel Sleiman,
   said 'itis in the interest of those who claim to defend Lebanon-s
   sovereigntythat Lebanon have a strong army.'The United States says it su
   pports that sovereignty, but thesestatements should also be translated
   into acts,' he added.'It is time the Lebanese Army be adequately armed,
   and we are counting onthe friends of Lebanon to help the army.'Sleiman
   announced Saturday a plan to build up the armed forces'regardless of the
   position of some countries,' in apparentreference to Israel-s complaints.
   A statement from his office said he hadreceived numerous phone calls 'from
   Lebanon and Lebanon-s friends... ... who expressed the desire to
   contribute to arming the military.'On Tuesday, the municipality of the
   Beqaa town of Zahle sent a letter toPresident Sleiman, informing him that
   it will donate 100 million LL to supportthe Lebanese Army, the state-run
   National News Agency reported. -Agencies , with The Daily Star(Description
   of Source: Beirut The Daily Star Online in English -- Website of the
   independent daily, The Daily Star; URL: http://dailystar.com.lb)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally cop yrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   94) Back to Top
   Lebanese Press 10 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from the Lebanese press on 10 August.
   To request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735. - Lebanon -- OSC Summary
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 20:40:12 GMT
   "Pictures of aerial surveillance after the revelation of the secret of
   Al-Ansariyyah and confession tapes of collaborators regarding
   assassinations and monitoring activities"

   "Nasrallah gives a comprehensive report on accusations against Israel:
   Evidence and data that open up new horizons but are not convincing proof&amp;
   quot; Al-Akhbar

   "Nasrallah's press conference: An accusation that is looking for a
   tribunal"

   "Nasrallah's evidence: Aerial pictures and collaborators" Al-Safir

   "The AWACS flew and the commandos scanned the coastline and the enemy's
   collaborator was at the crime scene"

   "Nasrallah accuses Israel based on its aerial pictures and the confessions
   of its spies: An MK plane monitored Al-Hariri's train in Beirut, Faqra,
   and Sidon" Al-Diyar

   "Nasrallah points all fingers at Israel based on evidence and dates"

   "The investigation before his press conference is not the same as after
   it" Al-Anwar

   "Nasrallah presents information and evidence on Israel's involvement in
   Al-Hariri's assassination" Al-Liwa

   "Nasrallah accuses Israel of Al-Hariri's assassination and does not trust
   the Special Tribunal" Coverage in details 1. Beirut Al-Nahar (Internet
   Version-WWW ) in Arabic (Independent, moderate, centrist, and Christian;
   URL:

   http://www.annahar.com.lb/ http://www.annahar.com.lb

   a. Hizballah Secretary General Sayyid Hasan Nasrallah crowned his
   successive television appearances during the past few months by launching
   his comprehensive report accusing Israel of the assassination of former
   Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri. the report says that Nasrallah rushed
   remarkably to comment on what he presented in his conference, saying, I do
   not pretend that I am offering convincing proof, I am giving evidence and
   data that open up new horizons to investigate Israel for the first time.
   Hizballah made sure to show video tapes of aerial surveillance from
   Israeli reconnaissance planes that monitored the primary places where
   Al-Hariri was located. The report notes that Nasrallah divided his
   accusation into four sections. In the first section, he revealed the
   profile of agent Ahmad Nasrallah, who, according to him, worked in 1993 on
   con vincing Al-Hariri that Hizballah was plotting to assassinate him. In
   the second section, Nasrallah reiterated the reasons why he is accusing
   Israel, based on the issue of its agents and those who collaborated with
   it, most of whom were captured between 2009 and 2010.The third section was
   about the Israeli aerial surveillance, which Nasrallah described as the
   cornerstone of everything Israel is doing on the Lebanese scene. And in
   the fourth section, Nasrallah talked about the investigation carried out
   by Hizballah into the assassination of Al-Hariri, after his visit to the
   Al-Hariri family residence and upon the family's request. (1,300 words)

   b. Article by Rosanna Bu-Munsif saying that European and Arab capitals
   acknowledge that the demands raised by President Mahmud Abbas to move on
   to direct negotiations are legitimate. However, American and European
   pressure is put on President Abu-Mazin to resume direct negotiations,
   while the Arabs want to show some optimism and respond to this endeavor
   for many considerations. This is despite the fact that the Arabs realize
   that the ability of the United States to put pressure on Israel is
   decreasing. According to sources, the American President informed
   President Mahmud Abbas that the message of guarantees he sent to him to
   encourage him to move to direct negotiations is the maximum the United
   States could offer. However, sources believe that the Palestinian
   president should move to direct negotiations in order to avoid giving
   Binyamin Netanyahu a chance to fiddle with the negotiating tracks and
   choose one over another. (1,200 words)

   c. Article by Ghassan Hajjar titled: "The Government's Responsibility in
   the Issue of the Collaborators," saying that the series of arrests of the
   collaborators is illogical and insulting for the state's apparatuses and
   the government. The ministers say that the issue was not seriously
   discussed in the Council of Ministers and the general direction fo r
   dealing with this issue has not been determined. He notes that the Free
   Patriotic Movement did well when it called for referring Fayiz Karam to
   the judiciary and not leaving him under arrest. The writer says that,
   while the security bodies did not disclose the names of the collaborators
   before, to maintain the secrecy of the investigations, they are competing
   today to disclose the names and this is not right according to the writer.
   (600 words)

   d. Unattributed report saying that UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon
   refuses to comment on leaks from the Special Tribunal for Lebanon because
   he is not authorized to do so. Ban said that UNIFIL forces in Lebanon help
   with defusing the tension and restoring calm on the Israeli-Lebanese
   border and that these forces' report on the recent clashes will be
   presented to the UN Security Council once it is complete. (400 words) 2.
   Beirut Al-Akhbar Online in Arabic -- Website of Al-Akhbar, a political
   daily espousing Arab nationalist v iews, pro-resistance, pro-Syria; URL:

   http://www.al-akhbar.com/ www.al-akhbar.com

   a. Report saying that the capability, the motive, the confessions, the
   agents, the secret of the Al-Ansariyyah operation, aerial footage captured
   by Israeli reconnaissance planes, the Israeli air traffic on 14 February
   2005, and agent Ghassan al-Jid formed the main evidence given by Hizballah
   Secretary General Sayyid Hasan Nasrallah as signs of Israel's involvement
   in the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri. The report
   adds that Nasrallah said that the international investigation committee is
   capable of obtaining the map of the Israeli aerial monitoring, or it can
   ask for it from Israel or from friendly countries that have radar. When
   asked about giving the data to the international investigation committee,
   Nasrallah replied that he does not trust the investigation, but is ready
   to give the data to the Lebanese Government. (1,000 words)

   b. Article by Ibra him al-Amin saying that, before he went for a vacation
   in Sardinia, Prime Minister Sa'd al-Hariri told his aides that they should
   remain silent and avoid participating in the discussions over the Special
   Tribunal and the anticipated indictment. According to the writer, this
   means that nothing has changed in his reading or calculations and that he
   is giving his aides the green light to continue to accuse Hizballah of the
   assassination. The writer says that the revelations of Hizballah Secretary
   General Sayyid Hasan Nasrallah in his press conference yesterday could be
   the ladder Al-Hariri needs in order to end the politicization of the
   investigations. (800 words)

   c. Unattributed report on the reactions to Nasrallah's press conference,
   saying that General Michel Awn said that the information revealed by
   Nasrallah represents a foundation for opening new investigations. Speaking
   to Al-Manar TV, Deputy Walid Junblatt said that the facts relayed by
   Nasrallah opened up new ho rizons as to how the murder took place, adding
   that we have to remember that what led to this catastrophe was Resolution
   1559. Former Future Movement Deputy Mustafa Allush said that Nasrallah
   should have given names, the means of the assassination and how it took
   place, and other details. He added that he is not convinced by the
   information Nasrallah revealed. (500 words) 3. Beirut Al-Safir Online in
   Arabic -- Website of Al-Safir, independent and leftist, espousing Arab
   nationalist views; URL:

   http://www.assafir.com/ www.assafir.com

   a. Front-page report saying that Hizballah Secretary General Sayyid Hasan
   Nasrallah confirmed in his press conference that what he has presented is
   accusatory evidence and not convincing proof, it is only some evidence and
   data that open up new horizons for the investigation. Asked about the
   reason why Nasrallah would not meet Prime Sa'd al-Hariri, he said, there
   is no rupture in relations with Al-Hariri and there could be a meeting
   between us. I will not ask him for anything; we do not want him to abandon
   the Special Tribunal for Lebanon; we want to reveal the truth. Nasrallah
   confirmed his distrust of the tribunal, refusing to give it his data.
   (1,200 words)b. Article by Sati Nur-al-Din on the Israeli attack on the
   Lebanese Army, saying that the Lebanese were close to thanking Israel for
   dragging the Lebanese State to the southern border, and for participating,
   intentionally or unintentionally, in downplaying the internal tension
   resulting from the imminent issuance of the indictment. The writer says
   that Israel, which is stirring up conflicts on the border with Lebanon,
   does not seem to be looking for a pretext to go to a new war. However, it
   is showing the Lebanese that it is their common enemy. (500 words)

   c. Article by Imad Marmal on the armament of the Lebanese Army, saying
   that the clashes in Al-Udaysah opened the file of the armament of the
   Lebanese Army and eliminated many illusions re garding the positions of
   some Western countries toward the army and their seriousness in
   reinforcing it. The Al-Udaysah incident reemphasized that the United
   States wants the Lebanese Army to carry out a specific role, i.e. facing
   Hizballah and the fundamentalist terrorism. No American weapon will be
   given to the army unless it will be exclusively used in this direction.
   The writer ironically says that the Israeli and American campaign against
   the armament of the Lebanese Army implied that the weapons used by the
   army in the Al-Udaysah clashes were very advanced and threatening. In this
   sense, the army will lose nothing if the United States stops arming it.
   The writer says that after the Al-Udaysah clashes President Michel
   Sulayman called for arming the Lebanese from any source without
   conditions. But will the parties participating in the cabinet agree to the
   armament of the army from any source that does not set any preconditions,
   including Iran for example? (1,000 words)
   d. Article by Malak Aqil titled: "The 14 March Christians Understand
   Junblatt: He is Afraid of a New May," saying that Deputy Walid Junblatt no
   longer provokes the 14 March Christians. The writer says that all the 14
   March Christians are annoyed with Deputy Walid Junblatt's positions.
   Lebanese Forces' Deputy Antoine Zahra strongly attacked him recently and
   said that he is no longer in the center, but he has, rather, joined the 8
   March group. Faris al-Sa'id, coordinator of the 14 March General
   Secretariat, says that Junblatt's position vis-a-vis the Special Tribunal
   for Lebanon will determine his stand now. If he sides with the group
   calling for topping the tribunal under the threats of Hizballah, then he
   will lose his leadership. Sources from the Phalange Party say that
   Junblatt was the first to accuse Hizballah of Al-Hariri's murder, when he
   literally said on 28 January 2006 that the vehicle used in the attempt to
   assassinate Marwan Hamadah was boobytrapped in Beirut's Southern Suburb.
   (1,200 words) 4. Beirut Al-Diyar Online in Arabic -- Website of Al-Diyar,
   pro-Syria political daily; URL

   http://www.addiyaronline.com/ http://www.addiyaronline.com

   Article by Jihad Nafi on the visit of Syrian Ambassador Ali Abd-al-Karim
   Ali to Al-Duniyah, saying that the visit is a prominent political event
   and turnaround in the political activity of the Syrian ambassador. The
   writer says that the political mood in Al-Duniyah has changed after the
   opposition achieved victory in the municipal elections. Today, Al-Duniyah
   welcomes the Syrian ambassador, while this area was shut down before any
   pro-Syrian figure. The ambassador was received at the residence of former
   Deputy Jihad al-Samad, who succeeded in confronting the forces controlling
   Al-Duniyah, manipulating the failure of Deputy Ahmad Fatfat to make the
   people rally behind him. (700 words) 5. Beirut Al-Anwar Online in Arabic
   -- Website of Al-Anwar, moderate, centrist, and inde pendent daily; URL:

   http://www.alanwar.com/ www.alanwar.com

   Article by Rafiq Khuri saying that Lebanon is facing a fierce Israeli
   enemy and it is time to give priority to the armament of the Lebanese
   Army. The writer praises President Sulayman's calls to launch a campaign
   for the armament of the army, and says that he chose the right time and
   place in southern Lebanon to launch his campaign. The writer says that the
   Lebanese Army protects the national unity that protects it, and adds that
   the Lebanese Army and its armament should be the pillars of the defense
   strategy. (500 words) 6. Beirut Al-Liwa Online in Arabic --Website of
   Al-Liwa, a mainstream Sunni political daily;URL:http://www.aliwaa.com.lb

   Report citing sources saying that the file of investigations with Fayiz
   Karam, the retired brigadier general who was arrested on suspicion of
   collaborating with Israel, includes descriptions of all the suspicious
   materials in his possession as well as evidenc e of his phone
   conversations with external parties. The source says that the case file
   also includes statements made by Karam during preliminary investigation of
   his espionage activities. According to the source, Judge Saqr Saqr will
   study the case before transferring it to Military Investigative Judge
   Riyad Abu-Ghida. (350 words)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   95) Back to Top
   US State of Georgia, Liberia Sign Agreement on Management, Security of
   Ports
   Report by Julius Kanubah: "Liberia/Georgia Sign Agreement" - Star Radio
   Online
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 11:04:02 GMT
   (Description of Source: Monrovia Star Radio Online in English -- Website
   of the independent Star Radio; URL: http://www.starradio.org.lr/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   96) Back to Top
   Turkish Islamist Press 10 Aug
   This product lists selected items carried in the Turkish Islamist press on
   10 August. To request additional processing, contact the OSC Customer
   Center at (800) 205-8615 or OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Turkey -- OSC Summary
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 09:36:42 GMT
   Ergenekon," Yeni Safak

   publishes a front-page report which asserts that the Supreme Council of
   Judges and Prosecutors, HSY K, has taken steps to "bypass" the Justice
   Ministry's summer decree on the appointment of judges and prosecutors
   through a "promotion formula" that entails the appointment of Erzincan's
   Chief Public Prosecutor Ilhan Cihaner, a "suspect" in an anti-government
   conspiracy being investigated as part of the Ergenekon probe, as Ankara's
   chief public prosecutor.

   In a 602-word article entitled "Waiting for That Statement," Yeni Safak
   columnist Ibrahim Karagul comments on what he refers to as an impending
   statement by Hizballah leader Hasan Nasrallah expected to disclose
   "concrete information" about the architects of the murder of ex-Lebanese
   Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005. After highlighting earlier remarks by
   Nasrallah citing Israel and Mosad as culprits in the killing of Hariri,
   Karagul argues that the Hariri murder belongs along with the later killing
   of Former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto to the category o f
   "BMEI (Broader Middle East Initiative) assassinations," which "constitute
   the region's real history in the past 20 years" as events that "cleared
   obstacles to the United States and its allies' regional plans."

   In a 451-word article entitled "Who Won, Who Lost?" Yeni Safak columnist
   Fehmi Koru links public interest in the promotions and appointments
   implemented at Supreme Military Council, YAS, meetings to the Turkish
   Armed Forces' influence in political life, asserting that how the
   military's command structure is shaped at such meetings is a matter of
   curiosity simply because people tend to wonder how the army's four-star
   generals view important political issues. He claims that the
   "extraordinary" developments at the latest YAS meeting, where he asserts
   the representatives of the political authority claimed and exercised some
   of the powers conferred on them by the law, might potentially serve to end
   "military t utelage" over politics in Turkey. He also explains in what
   sense the meeting resulted in a "win-win" situation for the Government and
   the TSK. (Istanbul Yeni Safak (Ankara edition) in Turkish - Daily
   targeting Islamic reformists; close to the ruling Justice and Development
   Party - URL:

   http://www.yenisafak.com http://www.yenisafak.com ) Vakit

   Under the headline, "New Era in the TSK," Vakit carries a front-page
   report which asserts that "the eight-day YAS crisis" has ended with the
   Government "once more managing to get its own way" against the TSK by
   deciding appointments to posts like Land Forces Commander. According to
   the report, the YAS decisions have made it possible for General Necdet
   Ozel to be appointed as Chief of Staff after General Isik Kosaner's term
   as the army's commander-in-chief has ended.

   In a 727-word article entitled "Turkey is Emerging From the Fear Tunnel,"
   Vakit columnist Abdur rahman Dilipak expresses the hope that now that "the
   YAS crisis is over," domestic political debates will become less strident.
   He proceeds to comment on allegations that two TSK officers discussed
   shooting down Heron UAVs during a military operation against the PKK
   because they were causing the terrorists to sustain extensive losses. He
   refers to this "incident" as one that revealed possible secret cooperation
   between the "Turkish Ergenekon" and the PKK and calls on the General Staff
   to make a statement about the claims. He also urges Prime Minister Erdogan
   to repeat his "YAS performance" in opposing the HSYK's "efforts" to
   appoint certain prosecutors implicated in the Ergenekon conspiracy to
   "critical" posts.

   In a 962-word article entitled "New Era in the TSK: Junta Loses, Democracy
   Wins," Vakit Editor-in-Chief Hasan Karakaya hails the results of the
   latest YAS meeting as a "civilian revol ution" marking the start of
   government control of the TSK's top command for the first time in Turkey.
   He argues that the "traditions" to which General Basbug and his aides
   referred in trying to persuade Prime Minister Erdogan to endorse General
   Hasan Igsiz's appointment as Land Forces Commander were nothing but a ploy
   to prevent General Necdet Ozel from becoming Chief of Staff three years
   from now and place themselves in a position where they could shape the
   TSK's command structure in the next 11 years. He also claims that the TSK
   will be using "different methods" in the fight against terrorism in the
   next three years under the leadership of General Isik Kosaner, General
   Erdal Ceylanoglu, and General Necdet Ozel and that the three generals will
   make sure the TSK stops being a "controversial" establishment. (Istanbul
   Anadolu'da Vakit (Internet Version-WWW) in Turkish - Islamic
   fundamentalist daily - URL:

   http://www.vakit.com.tr htt p://www.vakit.com.tr ) Zaman

   In a 443-word article entitled "Who Lost at the YAS Meeting?" Zaman
   columnist Bulent Korucu analyses the results of the recent YAS meeting
   from the standpoint of the "gains" they entail for the "democratic
   system." He claims that the results signify that "the principle of the
   rule of law has prevailed," that the authority of the unwritten rules
   called military tradition has been undermined, and that the civilian
   authority has come closer to achieving the status it deserves within the
   political system. He also argues that what took place at the latest YAS
   meeting might turn out to be to the TSK's benefit by putting Turkey's
   generals in a position where they could devote more attention to
   professional matters.

   In a 502-word article entitled "The Rabbit Out of the Hat," Zaman
   columnist Ahmet Turan Alkan criticizes the way in which the "Kurdish
   issue" is being represented as a problem where the Turks have to make some
   sort of payment to the Kurds. He claims that while this perception is not
   wholly wrong, the use of terrorism as a means of obtaining Kurdish rights
   prevents Turkey from taking steps to redress perceived wrongs done to
   Kurds. He proceeds to assert that a significant number of Kurds insist on
   using armed force to coerce Turkey into coming to the negotiating table,
   adding that this "arm-twisting" strategy is only serving to "poison
   dialog." He also argues that while "we do have a 'Kurdish issue,'" this is
   a trouble "magnified by Kurdish fixations" rather than being a true social
   problem. (Istanbul Zaman (Ankara Edition) in Turkish - moderate
   pro-Islamic daily supportive of Nurcu Sect leader Fethullah Gulen - URL

   http://www.zaman.com.tr http://www.zaman.com.tr ) Today's Zaman

   In a 670-word article entitled "Military Fights Back While Withdrawing
   From Politics," Today's Zaman columnist Lale Kemal asserts that the
   "crisis" over this year's YAS meeting "marked a turning point in forcing
   the military gradually, if not immediately, back to its barracks, its
   natural place in a democracy." She also claims that "the political
   authority's intervention" in military promotions is distinguished from
   similar past moves by presidents and prime ministers by the fact that it
   "comes against the backdrop" of Turkey's efforts to qualify for EU
   membership. (processing)

   In an 854-word article entitled "Social Psychology of Military-Civilian
   Relations," Today's Zaman columnist Ali Bulac comments on the "underlying
   causes of the recent YAS crisis" using "tools afforded by social
   psychology in order to make sense of today's group, administrative and
   political conflicts." (processing)

   In a 732-word article entitled "An American Victory: A Mosque Near Ground
   Zero," Today 's Zaman Washington correspondent Ali H. Aslan lauds New York
   city authorities for "unanimously voting to clear the way for a mosque
   near the Ground Zero site." He also discusses how "the heated national
   debate about the mosque project revealed both strengths and weaknesses on
   the part of the US." (processing) (Istanbul Today's Zaman (Ankara Edition)
   in Eng lish - moderate pro-Islamic daily supportive of Nurcu Sect leader
   Fethullah Gulen - Root URL:

   http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web )
   Milli Gazete

   Under the headline, "Warrants Canceled, Crisis Ends," Milli Gazete carries
   a front-page report which asserts that "the crisis" over the military
   appointments at the recent YAS meeting was solved when the arrest warrants
   issued for a number of generals as part of the investigation into the
   so-called Sledgehammer coup conspiracy were canceled. (Istanbul Milli
   Gazete (Internet Version-WWW) in Turk ish - Mouthpiece of the Felicity
   Party (SP), affiliated with Necmettin Erbakan's National View Organization
   - URL:

   http://www.milligazete.com http://www.milligazete.com )

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   97) Back to Top
   Visits to Russia, US 'Yet To Be Planned'
   "Lithuanian President: Visits to Russia, US Yet To Be Planned" -- BNS
   headline - BNS
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 14:33:12 GMT
   "Moscow is not yet being planned because, as I have already said, visits
   to foreign countries must have a purpose and be well-prepared. As soon as
   certain agreements are drafted, preparations of the visit will start. The
   date for the visit has not been set yet. There is no date (for Washington
   D.C.), as well, however, there will be about two or three trips per month
   starting September," she told journalists on Tuesday (10 August).

   Among the nearest visits, the president referred to the European Council
   session in Brussels next month.

   Grybauskaite made her last foreign trip in July -- she attended events to
   mark 600 years of the Zalgiris (Grunwald) Battle in Poland.

   (Description of Source: Vilnius BNS in English -- Baltic News Service, the
   largest private news agency in the Baltic States, providing news on
   political developments in all three Baltic countries; URL:
   http://www.bns.lt)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   98) Back to Top
   Lebanese Press 9 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from the Lebanese press on 9 August. To
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735. - Lebanon -- OSC Summary
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 06:45:02 GMT
   "Fayiz Karam's file is transferred to the judiciary and the (Change and
   Reform) bloc criticizes the violation of legal principles"

   "Nasrallah releases the presumption of accusation today"

   "Birri: Collaborators do not belong to any religious community" Al-Akhbar

   "Nasrallah reveals his documents tonight: I accuse" Al-Safir

   "Junblatt: Let us arm the Lebanese Army from any source; beware of not
   respecting its fighting credo"

   "Tehran says war is unlikel y and praises the 'wisdom' of Damascus and
   Saudi Arabia"

   "Nasrallah issues his 'indictment' today: A methodical accusation of
   Israel" Al-Diyar

   "A surprise is expected today with Nasrallah's information on confessions
   and documents"

   "Sulayman continues his meetings and will launch an initiative on 19
   August" Al-Anwar

   "Sulayman's request for anti-aircraft missiles will be discussed in the
   Council of Ministers"

   "The army's leadership warns against launching rumors against militants
   and decides to investigate with them" Al-Liwa

   "Nasrallah calls for overcoming strife today and reveals information on
   Israel's involvement in Al-Hariri's assassination" Coverage in details 1.
   Beirut Al-Nahar (Internet Version-WWW) in Arabic (Independent, moderate,
   centrist, and Christian; URL:

   http://www.annahar.com.lb/ http://www.annahar.com.lb

   a. Front-page report citing sources from the opposition saying that Sayyid
   Hasan Nasrallah did not inform his close aides of the substance of his
   press conference tonight, and that key sources within the opposition and
   the state do not have any realistic and serious indications regarding what
   he will be saying. Other opposition sources said that Nasrallah will
   reveal data that is likely to change the course of the international
   investigation, thus forcing all those involved to deal with a new reality.
   The report adds that Justice Minister Ibrahim Najjar said that his
   ministry listed the names and cases of collaborators, "which, as it turns
   out, amount to around 150 cases." Najjar said that the file prepared by
   the ministry has been transferred to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs,
   which will then transfer it to the UN Security Council. Al-Nahar has
   learned that Speaker Nabih Birri instructed Development and Liberation
   Bloc ministers yesterday to call during the first session of the Council
   of Minister s for executing all legal sentences concerning collaborators
   and spies. Interior Minister Ziyad Barud told Al-Nahar that investigations
   with Brigadier General Fayiz Karam came to an end and that the case has
   been transferred to the prosecutor general's office." Barud said: "I know
   nothing; it is necessary to preserve the presumption of innocence, which
   presupposes the need to protect the secrecy of the investigation." (1,200
   words)

   b. Article by Nabil Bu-Munsif saying that all the rumors and information
   about an expected cabinet reshuffle are forms of pressure put on the
   government to adopt new policies and decisions. The writer says that there
   are indications that some forces are trying to transfer the increasing
   tension from outside the government to inside it with regard to the issue
   of the Special Tribunal. The writer says that the government will soon
   find itself obliged to face escalating crises starting with the conflict
   with Israel, the Special Tribunal's accusations against Hizballah, and the
   social and economic issues and files that affect the lives of the Lebanese
   citizens. (700 words)

   c. Article by Rosanna Bu-Munsif citing Western political sources saying
   that the escalating positions of Sayyid Nasrallah will cancel the positive
   effects of the tripartite summit that was held in Beirut, and warns that
   these positions might pave the way for certain actions and movements. The
   sources add that Iran is exploiting Lebanon and trying to change its
   political situation as part of its battle and confrontation with the
   international community. The sources add that the internal Lebanese
   situation will face crisis as a result of internal and external factors.
   The sources continue to say that Nasrallah's positions lead to the
   possibility of Hizballah gaining control over the Lebanese State through a
   new version of the 7 May events or through toppling the national unity
   government and replacing it with a new one and c ontrolling the Ministries
   of Defense and Interior. The sources say that if Hizballah is able to
   prevent the issuance of the tribunal's decision through threatening to
   destabilize Lebanon, then this will be a huge victory for it and will
   enable it to control Lebanon and to be the sole and only decisionmaker in
   the country. (1,200 words)

   d. Article by Naylah Tuwayni saying that the media outlets should protect
   the authority and status of the Lebanese Army and the security
   institutions by avoiding the publication of names of officers and army
   personnel who are under suspicion of collaborating with Israel, before the
   accusations against them are verified. The writer says that the
   publication of these names affects the secrecy of the investigations and
   the structure, status, and authority of the Lebanese Army institution.
   (700 words) 2. Beirut Al-Akhbar Online in Arabic -- Website of Al-Akhbar,
   a political daily espousing Arab nationalist views, pro-resistance,
   pro-Syria; URL:

   http://www.al-akhbar.com/ www.al-akhbar.com

   a. Report saying that Hizballah Secretary General Sayyid Hasan Nasrallah
   is scheduled to hold a press conference that will last for more than two
   hours, during which he will reveal a series of paper and electronic
   documents. According to a source within Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin
   Netanyahu's office, Hizballah's accusations against Israel bear witness to
   the party's concern on the eve of its indictment by the Special Tribunal
   for Lebanon. According to the source, "the accusation against Israel is
   ridiculous." On another note, the report says that Brigadier General Fayiz
   Karam is to be transferred to the competent judiciary authorities today
   following the end of the preliminary investigations on Saturday (7
   August). The sources involved with the case within the Internal Security
   Forces (ISF) Intelligence Department hope that an arrest warrant will be
   issued against him. The report notes that over the past couple of days
   Free Patriotic Movement officials went from being mere bystanders to
   cautiously calling for abstaining from anticipating investigation results
   and refusing to grant the ISF Intelligence their total confidence.
   According to an informed source, the Lebanese Army does not only need
   advanced weapons and equipment, the delivery of which is banned by Western
   states; rather, it also urgently needs primary and basic equipment. (1,000
   words)

   b. Unattributed report saying that the ongoing technical investigations
   into the telecommunications sector, which started with the detention of
   individuals who work in this sector on suspicion of collaborating with
   Israel, showed that a major and mysterious infiltration occurred on the
   level of the network of the mobile company, "Alfa," during the July war
   2006. The report says that the sources and nature of the infiltration are
   not known yet. (100 words)

   c. Article by Ibrahim al-Ami saying that the ar rest of Fayiz Karam, the
   Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) official, was politically exploited by
   political sides against General Awn and the opposition in general. The
   writer says that these sides want to say that discovering an Israeli spy
   within the FPM ranks should push the FPM and the opposition in general to
   maintain silence and stop their campaigns with regard to this issue. The
   writer says that Karam's arrest revealed several facts and issues: First,
   the anger that existed within the different FPM ranks proves that General
   Awn was able to reinforce the concept that collaborating with Israel is
   not allowed and that Israel is the enemy. Second, the Israeli attempt to
   infiltrate the FPM highlights the significant role that it is playing on
   the level of the conflict with Israel. Third, it is normal for Israel to
   try to recruit a spy who is close to General Awn personally, and
   ironically asks: Will Israel try to recruit someone close to the Lebanese
   Forces? Fourth, the near future will reveal to the security, public, and
   private sectors in Lebanon more shocking facts on the level of Israeli
   infiltration. (1,000 words)

   d. Unattributed report on the political situation in Tripoli in north
   Lebanon. The report says that the influence of the Future Movement has
   decreased in Tripoli due to several reasons and factors, and that the city
   is currently suffering from a political vacuum that needs to be filled by
   the political forces. (700 words) 3. Beirut Al-Safir Online in Arabic --
   Website of Al-Safir, independent and leftist, espousing Arab nationalist
   views; URL:

   http://www.assafir.com/ www.assafir.com

   a. Front-page report citing informed sources saying that Hizballah
   Secretary General Sayyid Hasan Nasrallah's statements will open new
   prospects for the investigation, which the Special Tribunal for Lebanon
   can build on if it wants to be sincere. The report cites Deputy Walid
   Junblatt saying that the president was right about stres sing "the need to
   provide the army with weapons without submitting to any political
   conditions." Junblatt said that he held a meeting with the Progressive
   Youth Organization and PSP leaders during which they discussed his new
   choices. The report says that, following his meeting with his Lebanese
   counterpart, Ali al-Shami, in Tehran, the Iranian foreign minister
   noticeably emphasized "UNIFIL's deficiencies in southern Lebanon." Asked
   by Al-Safir about the Saudi-Syrian rapprochement, the foreign minister
   hailed any rapprochement between Damascus and Riyadh, saying that "it
   emanates from the wisdom and foresight of their respective leaderships as
   well as the Lebanese leadership." (1,200 words)

   b. Article by Talal Salman on the accusations leveled against Hizballah
   with regard to the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri.
   The writer says that the accusations are political ones and aim at
   stirring up strife in Lebanon and jeop ardizing the image of the national
   resistance. The writer says that the accusations are part of an
   international war, led by the United States and Israel. (800 words)

   c. Report by Nabil Haytham on the visit of Ali Akbar Velayati,
   international affairs adviser for Iranian Supreme Jurisconsult Ali
   Khamene'i, to Lebanon. The report says that the visit has several
   indications. First, Iran is a major player in the Lebanese arena and all
   the Arab and international countries should consider this reality. Second,
   Iran will not allow or accept the accusations leveled at Hizballah and the
   resistance, and will protect it in the face of the campaigns launched
   against it. Third, Iran is comfortable and satisfied with the Saudi-Syrian
   efforts to find a solution for the Lebanese crisis. Fourth, the Iranian
   and Syrian roles are complementary to each other. Fifth, Iran will support
   Hizballah and the Lebanese people against any Israeli act of aggression.
   (800 words)

   d. Report by Ja'far al-Attar on the fabricated witnesses in the
   investigations into the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq
   al-Hariri. The report says that Al-Safir was able to obtain a video of
   Murad's testimony in which he says that he was lured into testifying
   against Ali al-Hajj, former director of the ISF. Murad says that he was
   visited by several individuals close to the 14 March forces, who promised
   to get him out of prison if he testified against Al-Hajj. Murad says: "I
   went to the international investigation committee and I said what they
   asked me to say." The report presents the full details of Murad's
   testimony. (1,000 words)

   e. Report by M.K. citing an interview with Mohammad Reza Sheybani, former
   Iranian ambassador to Lebanon. Sheybani says that Iran supports the
   resistance, and that "a war is always a possibility with Israel," adding
   that it is not easy for Israel to launch a war after the July war in 2006.
   He adds that Israel wants a wa r the results of which it can guarantee;
   however, this is not possible considering the current conditions and
   circumstances. Sheybani talks about the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and
   says that "it targets Hizballah as a means to target the security,
   stability, and national unity of Lebanon." (300 words) 4. Beirut Al-Diyar
   Online in Arabic -- Website of Al-Diyar, pro-Syria political daily; URL

   http://www.addiyaronline.com/ http://www.addiyaronline.com

   a. Report by Yasir al-Hariri citing information stating that one of the
   Lebanese security apparatuses is close to detaining a major official after
   the investigations with the Israeli spies in the telecommunications sector
   revealed that this official provided the Israeli spies with several
   services and eased their access to information. The information also
   states that an official provided a political side with some files, files
   believed to be genuine but that turned out to be fabricated. These files
   accus e Hizballah of Al-Hariri's assassination. The writer cites sources
   saying that Sayyid Nasrallah will call on the security apparatuses to
   prevent the escape of these officials and individuals outside Lebanon.
   (700 words)

   b. Report by Radwan al-Dib saying that the opposition's campaign on the
   Special Tribunal is due to the information stating that the efforts of
   Saudi King Abdallah with regard to this issue are facing American and
   French obstacles and insistence on issuing the tribunal's decision. The
   writer talks about those who are advocating the theory of existing tension
   on the level of the relations between Syria and Hizballah, and says that
   they are working under illusions, as the tribunal's decision includes a
   clause stating that "the terrorist group that carried out the
   assassination of Al-Hariri was trained by an organized army," which links
   Syria or Iran to Hizballah in this regard. 5. Beirut Al-Anwar Online in
   Arabic -- Website of Al-Anwar, moderat e, centrist, and independent daily;
   URL:

   http://www.alanwar.com/ www.alanwar.com

   Article by Ra'uf Shahuri on President Sulayman's statements in which he
   called for the armament of the Lebanese Army. The writer describes
   Sulayman's position as an honorable national one, and adds that the
   Lebanese Army suffered from a conspiracy that prevented its armament it
   for decades. The writer says that the Lebanese State and people cannot
   oblige the international community to provide the Lebanese Amy with
   weapons; however, the significance of Sulayman's position stems from the
   fact that an official Lebanese decision has been made in this regard. (450
   words) 6. Beirut Al-Liwa Online in Arabic -- Website of Al-Liwa, a
   mainstream Sunni political daily;URL:http://www.aliwaa.com.lb

   Report by Hasan Shalhah on an interview with Deputy Tammam Salam, who says
   that the Arab summit in Beirut focused on preserving stability and
   preventing strife. He adds that a cabinet reshuffl e is not an option, and
   that it would be extremely difficult to form an alternative national unity
   government. Salam talks about the military clashes that took place in
   southern Lebanon, the Israeli violations and the role of UNIFIL, the
   implementation of UN Resolution 1701, the tripartite summit that took
   place in Lebanon, the Lebanese internal situation, the Special Tribunal
   for Lebanon, Prime Minister Al-Hariri's visits to Arab and foreign
   countries, the Lebanese Government and the rumors regarding a cabinet
   reshuffle and the issue of the Israeli espionage networks in Lebanon. (800
   words)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   99) Back to Top
   Boeing Likely to Win Contract For S. Korea 's Presidential Jet: Sources -
   Yonhap
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 21:36:51 GMT
   Boeing-presidential jet

   Boeing likely to win contract for S. Korea's presidential jet:
   sourcesSEOUL, Aug. 11 (Yonhap) -- Boeing Co. of the United States will
   likely win a contract to build South Korea's new presidential jet as its
   archrival EADS, the European parent of Airbus, decided not to submit a
   bid, informed sources said Wednesday.South Korea plans to buy a
   presidential jet by 2014 to replace its presidential plane put into
   service in 1985. President Lee Myung-bak (Yi Myo'ng-pak) is using a Boeing
   747-400 jet for overseas trips under a five-year lease contract with
   Korean Air ahead of the planned purchase.The Defense Acquisition Program
   Administration (DAPA), South Korea's weapons procurement agency in charge
   of the presidential jet project, is reopening a tender that failed on Aug.
   3 because it attr acted only one bidder, Boeing.But EADS would not submit
   a bid by the Monday deadline for the second-round tender, a well-informed
   military source said, clearing the way for a potential Boeing win."EADS
   decided not to submit a bid for the presidential plane contract because it
   sees little chance of winning," the source said on condition of
   anonymity.An official at the Seoul office of EADS declined to comment on
   the matter.With the exit of EADS, the DAPA will review the sole bid by
   Boeing and complete price negotiations by October."If all things go
   smoothly, Boeing will be able to sign a formal contract for the new
   presidential plane in December," said another source at the DAPA.Boeing is
   offering its B-737 commercial airliner, and the price would be up to 400
   billion won (US$342.5 million), the DAPA source said.(Description of
   Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news agency of the ROK;
   URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in th e World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   100) Back to Top
   Iranian Vice President Warns of Tariffs Against ROK Over Sanctions
   Unattributed report: "Iran Warns Korea Over Sanctions" - Chosun Ilbo
   Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 05:32:52 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Chosun Ilbo Online in English -- English
   website carrying English summaries and full translations of vernacular
   hard copy items of the largest and oldest daily Chosun Ilbo, which is
   conservative in editorial orientation -- strongly nationalistic,
   anti-North Korea, and generally pro-US; URL: http://english.chosun.com)

   Material in the Wor ld News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   101) Back to Top
   Iranian general downplays US war option - Press TV Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 04:06:07 GMT
   Text of report in English by Iranian news channel Press TV website on 10
   AugustChairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of Iran's Armed Forces Maj-Gen
   Hasan Firuzabadi says the United States is keeping the "war option" open
   to justify its huge military budget.Maj-Gen Firuzabadi on Tuesday (10
   August) downplayed remarks made by his American counterpart Admiral Mike
   Mullen last month, claiming he was prepared to give the green light for an
   attack on Iran if he was conv inced it would keep Tehran from building
   "bombs.""If American politicians do not keep the war option on the table,
   how will they be able to garner the 1,000-billion-dollar budget that Mr
   Mullen is seeking to spend for military operations?" the Iranian general
   asked.He went on to say that Mullen needed to use such an excuse in order
   to "justify Congress and the American nation" to fund a massive military
   budget at a time when the "financial crisis has broken the backs of
   Americans."Maj-Gen Firuzabadi said Iran's Armed Forces are capable of
   countering any attack, warning that another war, particularly one with
   Iran, would "completely finish off" Washington."However, the US is not in
   a position (to launch a fresh war). It can neither spare heavy expenses
   nor can it tolerate a war with heroic Iranian Basijis."The remarks came
   hours after Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) equipped its
   naval fleet with 12 Zolf aqar class torpedo-launcher speedboats.Over the
   weekend, the Iranian Navy also increased the number of its stealth mini
   submarines to 11.(Description of Source: Tehran Press TV Online in English
   -- website of Tehran Press TV, 24-hour English-language news channel of
   Iranian state-run television officially controlled by the office of the
   supreme leader; www.presstv.ir)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   102) Back to Top
   US worst suppressor of media, people - Iranian president - Press TV Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 04:43:25 GMT
   Text of report in English by Iranian news channel Press TV websi te on 10
   AugustThe Iranian president says while US accuses Iran of restricting its
   media the American people and media are the targets of the "worst kind of
   suppression.""The worst kind of suppression exists in the United States.
   During the tenure of (former US president George W.) Bush, they controlled
   postal packages and tapped phone calls," Mahmud Ahmadinezhad said in an
   interview with The New Yorker, according to the president's official
   website.Ahmadinezhad was referring to heightened security measures taken
   during the Bush era following the September 11, 2001 attacks, which the US
   blames on Al-Qa'idah militants.The Bush administration acknowledged that
   intelligence agencies conducted warrant-less eavesdropping on Americans
   with the help of telecommunication companies.However, a bill passed under
   pressure from Bush granted telecom companies immunity from multiple civil
   lawsuits related to their handling of phone records.Ahmadinezhad further
   said the US was to blame for the lack of relations between Tehran and
   Washington and stressed that Iran is ready for talks with the US that are
   based on "justice and respect."The president stressed Iran "does not
   welcome the current atmosphere" in Tehran-Washington relations and said,
   "Unfortunately Mr Obama is on the path of failure which has no future as
   it is the same path taken by Mr Bush in the past."Ahmadinezhad said Iran
   was ready to "help bring the US out of the crises" it has created in Iraq
   and Afghanistan, where thousands of US soldiers and hundreds of thousands
   of civilians have been killed."Iran is ready to help them, based on
   justice and respect... I hope there is someone with an ear among US
   politicians to understand this and brings no more deaths to the people in
   Iraq and Afghanistan as well as US soldiers," he said.(Description of
   Source: Tehran Press TV Online in English -- website of Tehran Press TV,
   24-hour English -language news channel of Iranian state-run television
   officially controlled by the office of the supreme leader; www.presstv.ir)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   103) Back to Top
   Malaysian, Singapore Chinese Press 10 Aug 10
   The following is a selection of editorials, commentaries, and reports from
   Malaysian and Singapore Chinese press on 10 August - Malaysia-Singapore --
   OSC Summary
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 20:42:26 GMT
   An editorial in Sin Chew Daily says: "The visit of US nuclear aircraft
   carrier George Washington to Vietnam signifies that the bilateral military
   cooperation between V ietnam and the United States has matured as days
   went by. However, the timing of the arrival of George Washington to
   Vietnam is sensitive for the region because of the recent accident of the
   South Korean naval vessel Cheonan. The US nuclear aircraft carrier's visit
   to Vietnam has also highlighted the Obama government's intention to
   maintain a high degree of influence in the Asia-Pacific region. The
   normalization of US military policy in Vietnam is not only the symbol of a
   new US-Vietnamese era, but also the beginning of a new US order in
   Southeast Asia as a whole. Such development may have a far-reaching impact
   to countries in this region. The United States understands that East Asia,
   which includes China, Japan, Korea, and ASEAN countries, is a fast growing
   region in term of political and economic forces. Therefore, when President
   Obama came to power, he gradually began focusing on a political-economic
   strategic framework covering the entire Asia-Pacific region. It is the i
   ntention of the United States to include East Asia as part and parcel of
   the US-led Asia-Pacific powerbase. The United States wants to ensure that
   it can have an influential role in the affairs of East Asia. The US-ROK
   (the Republic of Korea) joint military exercise is a concrete display of
   the US strategy on the Asia Pacific. Countries in this region should note
   that when the United States begins to actively develop military ties with
   Vietnam, such development will have an impact on the security concern in
   Asia, especially for country such as China. In recent days, the US-China
   ties have strained. The closer US-Vietnam military cooperation will
   inevitably make China suspicious that the United States is out to win
   Vietnam and other ASEAN countries to its side with the hidden agenda to
   contain China. Such development will deepen China's psychological
   intention to actively expand its friendly and cooperative relationships
   with ASEAN countries to compete the political and econo mic dominance of
   the United States in Asia in the coming days. On the positive side, this
   development will balance the growth of major powers in Asia. However,
   increasing competition between China and the United States in this part of
   the world can also lead to division and turn this region into a conflict
   zone."

   (Petaling Jaya Sin Chew Daily in Chinese -- Daily with the highest
   circulation in Malaysia. Per Audit Bureau of Circulations data, Sin Chew
   has a circulation of 357,163. Provides broad coverage of domestic
   political issues. Sin Chew came under the control of timber tycoon Tiong
   Hiew King in 1988.) Commentary: Impact of United States-Vietnam Nuclear
   Technology Cooperation on ASEAN Nations

   A commentary by Yu Chi in China Press says: "Last week, the US Department
   of State announced that the United States-Vietnam nuclear technology
   cooperation has gained much progress. Normally, it is not an issue for two
   countries to engage in technical exchange . However, Vietnam has now
   become the first country in Southeast Asia to use nuclear energy for
   development. Vietnam's industrial development has progressed speedily. Of
   late, massive foreign investors, especially those which have suffered
   setbacks in China have gradually making plan to move to Vietnam. Such
   development has given Vietnam greater confidence to go for
   industrialization, using nuclear power. Vietnam has decided to build
   additional 13 nuclear power plants. Among the ASEAN countries, Vietnam is
   the only nation, which dares to confront China over the South China Sea
   island sovereignty dispute. When the United States said that it would not
   prevent extensive use of nuclear power in Vietnam and that it would allow
   Vietnam to handle its nuclear waste enrichment industry, it became clear
   that Vietnam was moving closer to the United States than China now. This
   means that eventually Vietnam can produce the raw material for making
   nuclear bombs. Of course, ASEAN nations a nd the United States have the
   common trust that Vietnam will apply its nuclear power for peaceful use
   only. However, since Vietnam and China have strong dispute over the
   territorial rights over some islands in South China Sea and since Vietnam
   and some ASEAN countries have accepted the participation of the United
   States in ASEAN affairs and dialogue, such a political trend may lead
   China to help Burma develop nuclear energy industry. Once Burma has the
   nuclear power technology, China will also be able to confront Vietnam,
   which has, of late, taken a clear stand to move ahead with the United
   States. Such development may have an impact on the future course of ASEAN
   too."

   (Kuala Lumpur China Press in Chinese -- Carries general domestic and
   political news. Along with sister publication Nanyang Siang Pau, it came
   under timber tycoon Tiong Hiew King's media empire in 2007. Per Audit
   Bureau of Circulations data, China Press has a circulation of 231,539.)
   Commentary Urge s Malaysians To Find Solution to Racial Differences

   A commentary by Lin Zhao Ying in Kwong Wah Jit Poh says: "The proposal by
   DAP (Democratic Action Party) MP Tony Pua calling the ruling government to
   set high-end property purchase discount for Bumiputera (indigenous group
   and the Malays) buyers, has riveted strong protest from the UMNO (United
   Malays National Organization) youth wing chief and PAS (Pan Malaysian
   Islamic Party) president. They strongly opposed the repeal of any
   preferential treatment enjoyed by the Malays in property purchase. From
   the recent media reports, we can sense that the sensitive racial issue
   still prevails in the society. Hence, it is important for opposition party
   leaders like the one from the DAP to take note that although UMNO and PAS
   will not merge simply because of MP Tony Pua's remarks, they have,
   nevertheless, expressed the view of the Malay society. We feel that
   although the opposition party politicians can always criticize the ruling
   party politicians, but when it comes to sensitive policies, it is
   important for them to take a consultative approach with other parties to
   handle the issue carefully. We should take positive steps to ease the
   tension between different ethnic communities to create a harmonious
   environment in the society. Traditionally, Malaysians have been used to
   the Barisan Nasional's approach to deal with sensitive issues through a
   consultation platform to avoid touching the baseline of different ethnic
   groups. This can be one of the ways to reduce ethnic tension. Prime
   Minister Najib is a good representative of moderate Malays. He does want
   to let people know the importance to maintain racial harmony by his
   One-Malaysia concept. This concept is specifically designed with the
   non-Malays in mind. Together, all citizens, regardless of ethnic
   background, should find a way out to eliminate racial differences."

   (Penang Kwong Wah Jit Poh in Chinese -- Oldest Chinese daily in M alaysia.
   Focuses mainly on news from northern peninsular Malaysia. Along with
   Oriental Daily News it is one of the few Chinese dailies not under timber
   tycoon Tiong Hiew King's control. Per Audit Bureau of Circulations data,
   Kwong Wah Jit Poh has a circulation of 71,350.) Editorial: Government
   Needs To Work With Private Sector on Formation of Minimum Wage System

   An editorial in Nanyang Siang Pau says: "At a recent seminar organized by
   the human resource ministry to discuss the government's intention to
   implement a minimum wage system, the executive chairman of the Malaysian
   Employers Association pointed out that if the government insisted on the
   implementation of a minimum wage system and forced the local industry to
   upgrade the current salary level of workers from 30 to 60 percent, many
   factories would have no ch oice but to lay off many workers to survive. In
   this regard, it is crucial for the government and the private sector to
   discuss and find a suitable sol ution before the implementation of a
   minimum wage policy that is essential for Malaysia to move toward economic
   transformation. A recent World Bank report noted that in the past 15
   years, the wage increase in Malayia's private sector is only 2.6 percent
   while the cost of living during the same period has increased by more than
   15 percent. This statistics has shown that the wages of workers in the
   private sector are, indeed, lopsided and would need the help of the
   government to come out with a fairer wage structure as the country aims to
   become a high income nation by 2020."

   (Petaling Jaya Nanyang Siang Pau in Chinese -- One of Malaysia's oldest
   Chinese dailies. Provides wide coverage of both domestic and international
   news. Per Audit Bureau of Circulations data, Nanyang Siang Pau has a
   circulation of 114,049. It was acquired by timber tycoon Tiong Hiew King
   in 2007. Prior to 2007 it was owned by the ruling coalition component
   party Malaysian Chinese Association ( MCA).) Singapore Editorial:
   Singaporeans Dream Anew As Nation Celebrates 45th National Day

   An editorial in Lianhe Zaobao says: "Singapore celebrated its 45th
   National Day on 9 August. Singapore, at 45, is still a young country, and
   a young country needs young dreams. All Singaporeans should have a common
   Singapore dream. Speaking at a National Day dinner, Senior Minister Goh
   Chok Tong said that Singaporeans should not lose sight of the things that
   were going well in the country. He said that his dream of having five Cs
   is to help Singaporeans have better "career," live in "comfort,"
   surrounded by "children," and be "considerate" and "charitable." This
   should spur Singaporeans to think what their dreams are, how to dream, and
   how to turn their dreams into reality."

   (Singapore Lianhe Zaobao Online in Chinese -- Website of the leading
   Chinese newspaper in Singapore; URL:

   http://www.zaobao.com.sg/ h ttp://www.zaobao.com.sg )

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   104) Back to Top
   Hardline Islamic Charities Said Providing Relief to Pakistan Flood Victims
   AFP Report: "Islamic charities versus the US in battle for Pakistan aid" -
   AFP
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 05:53:08 GMT
   (Description of Source: Hong Kong AFP in English -- Hong Kong service of
   the independent French press agency Agence France-Presse)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be d irected to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   105) Back to Top
   Critical Commentary on US Iran Policy
   Commentary by Dmitriy Voskoboynikov: "Iran. Why Bomb?" (Komsomolskaya
   Pravda Online) - Komsomolskaya Pravda Online
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 15:59:12 GMT
   That same Khamenei declared nuclear weapons to be "contrary to Islam," and
   these bearded fellows do not joke around with religion. The Iranian fatwa
   (religious ruling) (consider it to be an immutable sentence) against
   nuclear arms is an officially registered document, kept in the UN. Tehran
   was practically the only one to try - and is still trying - to have the
   Near East declared a nuclear-free zone. (Unlike Israel, which has a large
   nuclear arsenal, refuses to sign the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, and
   is not allowing in IAEA inspectors). Nevertheless, for the last decade,
   all we hear is that "in about 5 years," the militant Iran, whose military
   budget is less than that of Singapore, will acquire nuclear weapons, and
   then look out!

   The thesis of the need to "wipe Israel off the map" is being stubbornly
   ascribed to President of Iran Mahmud Ahmadinezhad. He never said that.
   Five years ago, he cited the words of the "father of the Islamic
   revolution" of 1979, Ayatollah Khomeini, to the effect that "the regime
   occupying Jerusalem must disappear from the chronicles of time." This was
   not a declaration of aggressive intentions, but an ideological postulate.
   Tehran believes that the artificially created state of Israel -- like the
   Soviet Union in its time -- will soon expire, and this would lead to the
   fact that Muslims, Jews and Christians in the Near East would become
   brothers. It is only Iran's opponents that are frightening the wo rld with
   "preventive" military actions. But the myth about "wiping off the map"
   continues to be circulated by unscrupulous mass media.

   As a result of this and other propaganda rumors, the world is living in a
   heavy atmosphere of supposedly inevitable and necessary attack on Iran.
   The non-stop propaganda has led to the fact that over two-thirds of
   Americans (poor people!) believe that Tehran has already acquired nuclear
   weapons, and Congress - which is controlled by a pro-Israeli lobby - is
   pushing through such resolutions that we can only make us wonder.
   Specifically, Resolution 1553 in fact provokes the US to a war with Iran,
   if the latter somehow responds to an attack by Israel. This draft was
   proposed on 22 July by a Republican member of Congress (from Texas, as
   strange as it may seem, and not Tel-Aviv), Louie Gohmert, who is demanding
   support of Israel's right "to use any necessary means to oppose the
   nuclear threats emanating from the Islamic Republic of Iran, and their
   destruction, including by means of application of military force." Are you
   familiar with the expression, "pulling someone else's chestnuts out of the
   fire?" Sorry excuse for intelligence

   Back in 2007, the US National Intelligence Council reported that Iran does
   not possess nuclear weapons, and that there was no credible information
   about the presence of such plans. Today, an updated version of this study
   has been prepared, where, judging by information from competent sources,
   it is concluded that Iran is not conducting any nuclear military programs.
   And Washington "hawks" are furious. They are demanding that the document
   be filled with rhetoric that instills terror. There is insane pressure
   being placed on the professional intelligence men. Here is one example.
   The Wall Street Journal published an article by a certain Edward Jay
   Epstein. The provocateur writes: "The mistake (referring to the rep ort of
   2007) may be explained by the prejudicial nature of the analytical policy
   and the misinformation emanating from Iranian double agents." And so,
   these agents are hanging around Washington. Their numbers exceeded only by
   the Palestinian ones...

   And here is clever fellow, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Mike
   Mullen, who knows that an attack on Iran may lead to "unexpected, hardly
   predictable consequences in an incredibly unstable part of the world," who
   manages to utter: "Military options (of action) have always been and still
   are on the table."

   It is sad. The Iranian -- and generally the Near Eastern -- policy of
   Barack Obama is becoming ever more reminiscent of a line from the once
   popular Odessa song, "Solomon Plyar School of Dance: "One step forward and
   two steps back." One of its contemporary couplets begins with the
   declaration made by Obama at the beginning of his presidency to the
   television compa ny, Al-Arabiya ("If such counrties as Iran are ready and
   willing to open their fist, they will find our outstretched hand"), and
   ends with a rejection of a meeting with Ahmadinezhad within the scope of
   the September session of the UN General Assembly. As the White House press
   secretary explained, first Tehran must admit its own evil-doing. The
   refrain has not changed much since the times of Bush-junior's presidency:
   A permanent "war against terrorism," which leaves pools of blood along the
   way.

   And then, there is the freedom-loving Internet resource, "Wikileaks,"
   which has disclosed who knows whose "secrets." It does not say anything
   new about the atrocities in Afghanistan, but an attack on Iran is
   justified. "They are secretly arming, financing and training the Taliban,
   Afghan rebels associated with Al-Qaida, and suicide bombers," it turns
   out. Unnatural ties with the ephemeral Al-Qaida were once attributed to Ir
   aq. But in the case with Iran, the "alliance of evil-doers" appears even
   more insane: It is hard to find anyone who hates each other than more than
   the Shiite Muslims who rule in Tehran, and the Wahhabite Sunis, who
   presumably make up Al-Qaida. It should rather seek like-minded followers
   in Saudi Arabia which, according to certain announcements (which it
   refutes) has given consent to Israel's use of its air space to inflict an
   attack on Iran. ***

   In recent days, a group of former high-level associates of the CIA, the US
   Defense Department and the US State Department, led by Raymond McGovern
   (he prepared the daily briefing on intelligence data for Presidents Reagan
   and Bush-senior) sent an open letter to Barack Obama. Fearing that Israel
   may attack Iran already in August, the veterans stress: "This can be
   prevented, but only if you quickly and publicly condemn this step." The
   answer was silence.

   (Description of Source: Moscow Komsomolskay a Pravda Online in Russian --
   Website of mass-circulation daily owned by the YeSN company of Grigoriy
   Berezkin, who has links to energy projects and the Russian Railways; it
   sometimes serves as a vehicle for Kremlin officials, security; URL:
   http://www.kp.ru/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   106) Back to Top
   Pakistan Taliban Urge Government To Reject US Aid
   AFP Report: "Pakistan Taliban urge government to reject US aid" - AFP
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 02:25:44 GMT
   (Description of Source: Hong Kong AFP in English -- Hong Kong service of
   the independent French press agency Agence France-Presse)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   107) Back to Top
   Iran TV Criticizes 'Dual Approach' of US to Rebel Group MKO - Vision of
   the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 16:57:48 GMT
   gangs sponsored by themselves (US), in other words, Monafeqin (Hypocrites,
   reference to the Mojahedin-e Khalq Organization, MKO). Ali Ramazani will
   tell us more about this dual-approach.

   (Ramazani) The Americans have come to the fore affecting a totally
   discredited policy of feigning a phoney dispute. A conduct that is so
   palpably artificial has been adopted.(Presenter) Well, on the one hand the
   American Government comes to the fore and places this group on the
   blacklist of terrorist groups and, on the other hand, a kangaroo court is
   convened in which...(Ramazani, interrupting) Quite so! In effect this is
   the same discredited dual-approach policy.(Presenter) Removes them from
   this list!(Ramazani) Quite so; as I said the court which acquits these
   people whose hands are drenched in the blood of thousands of innocent
   people and on the other hand they put this lot on the blacklist of
   terrorism. This is, in effect, a policy of dual-approach and indicates
   various contradictions of the American Government. In the report prepared
   for us by my colleague Vahid Hajhoseyni you will see the
   details.(Hajhoseyni) It was approximately a month ago that the federal
   court made a ruling that the terrorist organization of Monafeqin are no
   longer terrorist and the Government of America has to remove them from the
   blacklist of terrorists. Without referring to the dark history of this
   gang, this court even scorns the action of America in its blacklisting
   games. It calls this action illogical adding that since 2001, this gang
   has not resorted to arms and has not committed any crimes.This is against
   a setting of the last few days where the Information Dissemination Office
   called LEGAL (as heard) has printed documents.On the basis of what has
   been submitted, the Monafeqin have not only not suspended their heinous
   acts but in that same year, referred to by the kangaroo court of America,
   they have provided training for some young women to perpetrate suicide
   bombings in Iraq using jackets.One case in point is the incident of the
   bombing in the holy city of Karbala in 2001 and the martyrdom of the
   Shiite.Now after so much failure and disgrace, the Monafeqin have
   transformed themselves into the infantry of the grounded Ba'athists of
   Iraq who have no place in the nation of Iraq.The published documents on
   this very site have also unveiled the role o f the Monafeqin in creating
   mayhem, the destruction of public property, and insulting the sacred
   places coordinating with the Government of America.Nevertheless, it would
   have been impossible that the good services of this terrorist gang for its
   American bosses does not get rewarded in their being cleansed and enjoying
   a phoney change in their dossier by the American court.Despite the fact
   that the name of this group remains on the blacklist of the American
   Government, the attempts made by the Americans make it quite clear that
   this terrorist gang and its actions are of great significance for the
   Government of America.(US footage in English) To remove the MeK (MKO) off
   this list and I will continue to do so.(Further US footage) I have joined
   223 members of this house to pass a resolution to call on the US
   Government to ensure the protection of Camp Ashraf (MKO base in Iraq) will
   in fact continue.(Hajhoseyni) But, even if one believes the claims of the
   American court that the heartless Monafeqin have never perpetrated any
   crimes the evidence shows that the Monafeqin have perpetrated crimes in
   Iraq and have been foiled by the security organs of our country where they
   have tried to do the same here. All of this indicated that this terrorist
   gang is a savage lot.It will not be wiped away by any water or any
   color.But in the end this question remains: why has the federal Government
   of America never made any allusions to its confirmed assistance to the
   terrorist organizations such as the PKK, (Abdolmalik) Rigi's group
   (Jondollah), Monafeqin, and other world terrorists? Of course, the answer
   to this question can be found in the history of America in using terrorist
   organizations against various nations of the world.(Description of Source:
   Tehran Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1 in Persian --
   state-run national television, officially controlled by the office of the
   supreme leader)

   Material in the World News Connection is generall y copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   108) Back to Top
   Taiwan Political Issues 9 August 2010 - Taiwan -- OSC Summary
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 08:29:34 GMT
   -- According to this Tzu-yu Shih-pao report by Hsu Shao-hsuan and Ch'iu
   Yen-ling, Taiwan's intelligence departments have concluded that Taipei's
   plan to purchase eight submarines and 66 F-16C/D fighters from the United
   States is almost impossible to achieve because of China's strong
   opposition. The report claims that legislator Lin Yu-fang, a member of the
   Foreign and National Defense Committee, said on 8 August that he has heard
   from the US side that it might be difficult for the time being to sell t
   he F-16C/D to Taiwan because of China. According to Lin, Washington may
   offer to upgrade Taiwan's F-16A/B fighters instead. The report claims that
   a Taiwan policy-making level navy commander said the US government has
   made a policy announcement in public its intent to sell submarines to
   Taiwan, and as a world power the United States would not break its
   promise.

   http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2010/new/aug/9/today-t1.htm
   http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2010/new/aug/9/today-t1.htm "Is Taipei's
   Plan To Purchase Submarines, Fighters Futile? Legislator Urges Government
   To Continue To Make All-Out Effort"

   -- According to this Chung-kuang Hsin-wen report by Li Jen-yueh, although
   the Ministry of National Defense (MND) has denied the Tzu-yu Shih-pao
   report that Taiwan's plan to purchase F-16C/D fighters and submarines from
   the United States is likely to be futile, legislator Shuai Hua-min, who is
   familiar with military affairs, said he was not surprised at the T zu-yu
   Shih-pao report. Shuai said the national army should engage in
   reorganization and upgrading of the IDF and Mirage fighters as soon as
   possible. According to Shuai, submarines are important strategic weaponry,
   and therefore Taiwan should never give up in making an all-out effort to
   get the submarines.

   http://news.chinatimes.com/politics/0,5244,50204234x132010080900603,00.html
   http://news.chinatimes.com/politics/0,5244,50204234x132010080900603,00.html
   "Taiwan's Intelligence Official Says China To Increase Number of Missiles
   Aimed at Taiwan to 2,000"

   -- According to this Tzu-yu Shih-pao report by Hsu Shao-hsuan, an
   authoritative intelligence official said China planned to increase
   missiles aimed at Taiwan from the current 1,500 plus to at least 1,800.
   However, according to the source, the number will not exceed 2,000.
   According to the official, China deployed the missiles mainly to
   counterbalance the United States. The official also said that even if
   China announces to withdraw its missiles aimed at Taiwan it would not
   scrap the plan to produce missiles. According to the official, China will
   soon establish a number of new missile brigades.

   http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2010/new/aug/9/today-fo6.htm
   http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2010/new/aug/9/today-fo6.htm "Lin Chong-pin
   Says China To Address Issue of Existence of Republic of China"

   -- This Chung-kuo Shih-pao special report by Ch'i Le-yi states that Lin
   Chong-pin, former deputy defense minister and a professor of the Institute
   of Strategic Studies at Tamkang University, said Beijing is likely to
   announce a new argument on the existence of the Republic of China before
   Taiwan holds the presidential election in 2012. Lin also said he would not
   rule out the possibility that China would make an adjustment to its way of
   handling issues related to the deployment of missiles targeted at Taiwan
   before the municipality mayoral elections are held at the end of this
   year. According to the report, Lin cited a number of articles and reports
   in China to support his prediction. It is reported that Lin argued that
   China's Taiwan affairs officials realized that economic exchanges alone
   were not enough to impress the pe ople of Taiwan. Therefore, he said, to
   strengthen or to make a major breakthrough in cross-Strait relations,
   Beijing had little choice but to address political and military issues.

   http://news.chinatimes.com/mainland/0,5245,50504458x112010080900165,00.html
   http://news.chinatimes.com/mainland/0,5245,50504458x112010080900165,00.html
   "Su Tseng-chang, King Pu-tsung To Campaign in United States"

   -- According to this Tzu-yu Shih-pao report by Wang Yu-chung, Democratic
   Progressive Party (DPP) Taipei mayor candidate Su Tseng-chang is to
   campaign in Los Angeles on 14 August, and Kuomintang (KMT) Secretary
   General King Pu-tsung will also be in the area on 12 August to campaign
   for KMT's mayoral candida tes of the five municipalities. The report
   claims that President Ma, who doubles as chairman of the KMT, asked King
   to lead a group to campaign for the party in the United States. According
   to the report, King and his group will be in California for five days and
   will meet overseas Taiwanese in San Francisco on 15 and 16 August.

   http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2010/new/aug/9/today-p2-2.htm
   http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2010/new/aug/9/today-p2-2.htm

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   109) Back to Top
   Iran Cannot Protect Self From Israeli, U.S. Air Strike - Interfax-AVN
   Online
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 14:09:57 GMT
   intervention)

   Iran cannot protect self from Israeli, U.S. air strike - Russian analyst
   (10.08.10 17:58:31) MOSCOW. Aug 10 (Interfax-AVN) - Iran would be unable
   to protect itself from an Israeli or U.S. air attack, the likelihood of
   which is gradually increasing, Center for Analysis of Strategies and
   Technologies (CAST) Director Ruslan Pukhov said. "On the whole, the
   Iranian Air Force's and Air Defense Forces' potential should be evaluated
   as quite low. Iran cannot disrupt an Israeli, not to mention American, air
   attack on its nuclear facilities with the use of high-precision weapons
   and prevent their significant damage or destruction," Pukhov told Interfax
   on Tuesday. If the Israeli and/or U.S. forces decide to strike Iran, "they
   are likely to attain their ends on the whole," he said. "For the Iranian
   Air Force and Air Defense Forces in their current condition, even the
   simple destruction of several Israeli or U.S. pla nes would be a huge
   success," he said. "Despite their nominally large size, the Iranian Air
   Force and Air Defense Forces are outdated and polytypic," Pukhov said. The
   Iranian Air Force numbers about 300 planes now, Pukhov said. These include
   some 140 U.S.-made warplanes (thirty-five F-14A, fifty F-4E and D, six
   RF-4E, and fifty F-5E and F) 21 French planes (Mirage F.1EQ/BQ), fifty
   Chinese ones (F-7M/N), 65 Russian ones (twenty-four MiG-29, thirteen
   Su-25, and twenty-eight Su-24MK), and about 30 Iranian-made ones (twelve
   Simorgh, six Azarakhsh, and about 12 Saeghe), he said. "It is absolutely
   obvious that most of these aircraft have become obsolete both physically
   and morally (technologically). The fleet of U.S.-made planes has been
   significantly worn out. An acute shortage of modern air weapons, primarily
   air-to-air missiles, is also a serious problem for Iran," he said. In
   addition to shortages in modern air defense weapons, Iran also lacks early
   wa rning and control systems, Pukhov said: "Of all anti-aircraft missile
   system possessed by Iran, only modern Russian short-range systems Tor-M1
   and Kvadrat systems recently modernized and armed with new 9M317 missiles
   with Russia's assistance can be of real combat value." As for all the
   other Iranian air defense missile systems, they are likely to be
   effectively suppressed by modern electronic warfare systems and will not
   be efficient in intercepting targets, Pukhov said. "This will particularly
   concern medium- and long-range systems, which will enable attacking
   aircraft to act on medium and high altitudes virtually without being
   interrupted. The fact that Iran has not obtained modern S-300PMU2
   anti-aircraft systems from Russia has dealt a colossal blow to the Iranian
   Air Defense Force's potential and virtually deprived it of a core around
   which the country's modernized air defense system could be built," Pukhov
   said.(Description of Source: Moscow Interfax -AVN Online in English --
   Website of news service devoted to military news and owned by the
   independent Interfax news agency; URL: http://www.militarynews.ru)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   110) Back to Top
   Iran 'in no condition' to counter Israeli, US air attack - Russian analyst
   - Interfax-AVN Online
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 14:21:04 GMT
   - Russian analyst

   Text of report by corporate-owned Russian military news agency
   Interfax-AVNMoscow, 10 August: Iran is in no condition to defend itself
   against an Israeli or American air attack, the likelihood of which is
   continuing to grow, believ es Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Centre for
   the Analysis of Strategies and Technologies."Overall, the combat potential
   of Iran's air force and antiaircraft defences should be rated as very low.
   Iran will not be able to defeat an Israeli air attack and even less so an
   American air attack on its nuclear facilities, attacks that would involve
   the use of high-precision weaponry, and prevent those facilities being
   seriously damaged or destroyed," Pukhov told Interfax-AVN on Tuesday (10
   August).Most probably, the expert believes, should a strike be launched
   against Iran, Israeli and (or) US forces "will, overall, achieve the
   objectives they have been set"."Given the current state of Iran's air
   force and antiaircraft defences, they ought to regard it as a huge success
   if they manage simply to destroy several Israeli or US aircraft," the
   agency's interlocutor noted.In his assessment, "despite their notionally
   significantly proportions, the Iranian air force and antiaircraft defences
   are outdated and mixed".The Iranian air force's fleet of frontline
   aircraft, Pukhov explained, currently numbers an estimated 300. This
   comprises around 140 US-made aircraft (35 F-14A, 50 F-4E and D, six RF-4E,
   50 F-5E and F, 21 French-made aircraft (Mirage F1EQ/F1BQ), 50 Chinese-made
   aircraft (F-7M/N), 65 Russian-made aircraft (24 MiG-29, 13 Su-25, 28
   Su-24MK) and around 30 improvised Iranian-made aircraft (12 Simorgh, six
   Azarakhsh and around 12 Sa'eqeh)."It is absolutely clear that the
   structure and character of the majority of this equipment are now out of
   date. The fleet of American-made aircraft is severely worn-out. Another
   serious problem for Iran is its severe shortage of airborne weapons, first
   and foremost air-to-air missiles," the expert stressed.According to
   Pukhov, Iran is also experiencing shortages not only of modern
   antiaircraft weaponry, but also notification and control systems. "Of
   Iran's surface-to -air missile systems, the only ones that have any combat
   value are the modern Russian short-range Top-M1 systems and the Kvadrat
   systems, which were recently upgraded with Russian help and were given new
   9M317 missiles," Pukhov said.He believes that all the other surface-to-air
   missile systems in Iran's antiaircraft defences would probably be very
   effectively overpowered by modern electronic warfare devices and would not
   be able to launch fire successfully. "This applies in particular to mid-
   and long-range systems, which would enable the attackers' aircraft to
   operate at intermediate and high altitude virtually unhindered. Iran's
   failure to obtain modern S-300PMU2 surface-to-air missile systems from
   Russia deal the potential of the Iranian antiaircraft defences a massive
   blow, effectively depriving it of the 'core' around which the country
   could build modernized antiaircraft defences," Pukhov noted.In his
   estimation, an attack by Israel and the US on Iran &amp;qu ot;is looking
   increasingly likely"."It is more or less clear that the current US
   administration, which is bogged down in Afghanistan and has been forced in
   its policy to comply with the 'dovish' spirit of Barack Obama's
   declarations, is unlikely to decide to launch an independent, 'purely
   American' strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. So it is therefore almost
   certain that the Americans will entrust the formal mission to strike
   against Iran to Israel, which will appear to be acting independently,"
   Pukhov said.However, he isn't ruling out the possibility that these
   actions by Israel "will be tacitly supported and reinforced by limited
   American strikes, which will be launched under the cover of Israeli
   strikes and will be camouflaged as 'Israeli' strikes".(Description of
   Source: Moscow Interfax-AVN Online in Russian -- Website of news service
   devoted to military news, owned by the independent Interfax news agency;
   URL: http://www.militarynews.ru)
   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   111) Back to Top
   Iranian Commentary Argues Domestic Opposition Leaders Supplement Foreign
   Threats
   Commentary by Abbas Haji Najjari from the "Note" column: "All Parts of a
   Puzzle" - Javan Online
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 16:06:20 GMT
   A recent example of such harmony is the written interview given by Karrubi
   to the BBC, in which the draftsmen of the written text for Karrubi
   attacked the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) and the Basij.
   Claiming that the IRGC is not capable of handling major economic projects,
   they declared that the new sanct ions are according to the seventh and
   eighth chapters of the UN Charter. On this matter, in his note published
   on the Kalameh website on 4/16/1389 (7 July 2010), Mirhoseyn Musavi
   accentuates the sanctions resolutions of the hegemonic system and attacks
   the IRGC, stating: "Today, the IRGC is entangled with questionable issues.
   On the one hand, the IRGC's weapons have replaced the enemy against the
   people and it ranks first in the suppression, arrest, and interrogation of
   political forces and protesters. Meanwhile, on the other; it is entangled
   with economic issues to an incredible extent."

   Coinciding with the declaration of the clear stance of the leaders of
   sedition toward the effective forces against possible threats from the
   enemy, the very same stance was clearly declared by the directors of the
   White House and the EU. In addition, in their sanction resolutions, they
   targeted part of the domestic potentials that have a great role in
   neutralizing sanct ions.

   Speaking to the BBC on why the IRGC was targeted in the resolutions of the
   UNSC and the EU, Stuart Levey, US undersecretary for terrorism and
   financial intelligence, said: "The IRGC was the institution that
   suppressed the post-election public riots, and this suppression is ongoing
   today. Taking into account all this, the IRGC is an important element in
   Iran's politics and the US policy toward Iran and is the focus of our
   attention." Speaking to the BBC, Levey added: "We have one objective;
   changing Iran's behavior, especially that of the IRGC. If we can focus
   sanctions on institutions like the IRGC, which are active in the economy,
   the missile program, supporting terrorism, and suppressing the public
   protesters in Iran, we will be able to impose sanctions in such a way that
   the people of Iran cannot stand up to support the government."

   Last week, admitting the ineffectiveness of the sanctions against Iran,
   the Christian Science Moni tor newspaper claimed that what changes Iran
   are domestic changes. If we analyze the reason behind the escalating
   pressure and threats against Iran in various fields of economy and
   military, and the whipping up of the soft war, we will see that
   undoubtedly more important than the Iran nuclear issue is that of changing
   Iran's attitude. And, according to the nice interpretation of the supreme
   leader, they have targeted changing the Islamic Revolution's direction so
   that in their opinion they get rid of the problems and consequences of the
   Islamic Revolution's influence in the region and the contemporary world.

   As a result, they have focused all their capabilities in different aspects
   on realizing the strategy of "changing the attitude" of Iran. Besides the
   strategic goals of the enemy in this field, there is no doubt that the
   attitude of the Iranian people toward pressure and threats is effective in
   supplementing the process of the enemy's pressure. That i s, if the
   pressure gives rise to concerns and anxiety in public opinion, and in the
   opinion of the Americans causes a lack of people's support for the
   government, the pressure and threats will definitely increase as the enemy
   has found the weak point and it will continue from that point. In this
   case, the military threat is also likely, as such a threat wi ll be
   realized when it is followed by social signs and the weakening of the
   national morale. However, if the morale of national resistance and
   struggle of the Iranian people is as strong as it was during the Holy
   Defense (Iran-Iraq war), naturally, any military move and threat will turn
   into the strength of the national morality and solidarity. This is against
   the will of the Islamic Revolution's enemies.

   Here, it may be worth reviewing the events of the early Islamic period.
   When the Prophet and Muslims were facing sanctions in Mecca, the main goal
   of the infidels was to weaken Muslims and make them surrender. In fact, if
   the Prophet and the Muslims had surrendered to the Qoreysh infidels at
   that time, would there be any name of Islam in the contemporary world? The
   historic resistance of Muslims during that time, and especially their
   resistance against the infidels' sanctions in the early years of the
   formation of the Islamic government in Madinah al-Munawwarah that led to
   disputes among factions and the Muslims' victory, took place in conditions
   when the Muslims stood up with all their power against sanctions and
   pressure. That resistance now is an example for us to resist against the
   widespread attacks of enemies.

   There is no doubt that now the leaders of sedition, the hegemonic system,
   and antirevolutionary groups are all parts of a single puzzle that have
   targeted the integrity, reputation, and value of the Islamic Revolution.
   Hence, this is our historic duty to once again prove the capabilities and
   strength of the Islamic Revolution to the enemies and impose the st
   ability of the Islamic Revolution on them, just as we did during the Holy
   Defense and the period of neutralizing the enemies' soft war last year.

   (Description of Source: Tehran Javan Online in Persian -- website of
   hardline conservative daily affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards
   Corps (IRGC); www.javannewspaper.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   112) Back to Top
   Iran Cannot Protect Self From Israeli, U.S. Air Strike - Russian Analyst -
   Interfax
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 14:04:48 GMT
   MOSCOW. Aug 10 (Interfax-AVN) - Iran would be unable to protect itself
   from an Israeli or U.S. air attack, the likelihood of which is gradually
   increasing, Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST)
   Director Ruslan Pukhov said."On the whole, the Iranian Air Force's and Air
   Defense Forces' potential should be evaluated as quite low. Iran cannot
   disrupt an Israeli, not to mention American, air attack on its nuclear
   facilities with the use of high-precision weapons and prevent their
   significant damage or destruction," Pukhov told Interfax on Tuesday.If the
   Israeli and/or U.S. forces decide to strike Iran, "they are likely to
   attain their ends on the whole," he said."For the Iranian Air Force and
   Air Defense Forces in their current condition, even the simple destruction
   of several Israeli or U.S. planes would be a huge success," he
   said."Despite their nominally large size, the Iranian Air Force and Air
   Defense Forces are outdated and polytypic," Pukhov said.The Iranian Air
   Force numbers about 300 planes now, Pukhov s aid. These include some 140
   U.S.-made warplanes (thirty-five F-14A, fifty F-4E and D, six RF-4E, and
   fifty F-5E and F) 21 French planes (Mirage F.1EQ/BQ), fifty Chinese ones
   (F-7M/N), 65 Russian ones (twenty-four MiG-29, thirteen Su-25, and
   twenty-eight Su-24MK), and about 30 Iranian-made ones (twelve Simorgh, six
   Azarakhsh, and about 12 Saeghe), he said."It is absolutely obvious that
   most of these aircraft have become obsolete both physically and morally
   (technologically). The fleet of U.S.-made planes has been significantly
   worn out. An acute shortage of modern air weapons, primarily air-to-air
   missiles, is also a serious problem for Iran," he said.In addition to
   shortages in modern air defense weapons, Iran also lacks early warning and
   control systems, Pukhov said: "Of all anti-aircraft missile system
   possessed by Iran, only modern Russian short-range systems Tor-M1 and
   Kvadrat systems recently modernized and armed with new 9317 missiles with
   Russia's assi stance can be of real combat value."As for all the other
   Iranian air defense missile systems, they are likely to be effectively
   suppressed by modern electronic warfare systems and will not be efficient
   in intercepting targets, Pukhov said. "This will particularly concern
   medium- and long-range systems, which will enable attacking aircraft to
   act on medium and high altitudes virtually without being interrupted. The
   fact that Iran has not obtained modern S-300PMU2 anti-aircraft systems
   from Russia has dealt a colossal blow to the Iranian Air Defense Force's
   potential and virtually deprived it of a core around which the country's
   modernized air defense system could be built," Pukhov said.va ap(Our
   editorial staff can be reached at
   eng.editors@interfax.ru)Interfax-950040-JCQZCBAA

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be di rected to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   113) Back to Top
   Ma Ying-jeou Says Despite Improved Cross-Strait Ties, Taiwan Still Worried
   Unattributed report: "Ma Ying-jeou Says Procuring US Arms Is Necessary 'In
   Order To Eliminate the Obsolete Arms and Bring Its Weaponry Up-To-Date'" -
   Zhongguo Tongxun She
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 06:24:14 GMT
   Besides this, Ma Ying-jeou said: The Economic Cooperation Framework
   Agreement (ECFA) signed recently across the Strait not only reduced
   tension, but also helped bring about institutional development. In an
   effort to sign ECFA, the two sides have conducted separate and joint
   studies. The negotiations and consultation, including four major
   negotiations and a dozen or so small-sized talks, took more than half
   years. The contact between the two sides is more extensive and deeper than
   in the past.At the same time, on his own accord he explained "US-Taiwan
   disputes over the import of beef," saying that the ground beef and
   intestine banned for the import account for a very small proportion of the
   import. They have long been covered by the huge volume of boned and
   boneless beef. He hoped that people would focus more on useful things.

   (Description of Source: Hong Kong Zhongguo Tongxun She in Chinese --
   PRC-owned press agency (China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   114) Back to Top
   Saudi Website Highlights 10 Aug 10
   This roundup includes significant Saudi websites other than those of
   Jihadist groups, which OSC covers separately. To request additional
   processing, contact the OSC Customer Center at (800) 205-8615 or
   OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Saudi Arabia -- OSC Summary
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 13:16:09 GMT
   The website carries a factual agency report headlined "Iran Closes Last
   Sunni Mosque in Al-Ahwaz." The report says the Iranian authorities stormed
   the Imam al-Shafi'i Mosque near the "occupied city of Abedan in al-Ahwaz
   and closed the mosque, which is the last Sunni mosque in Al-Ahwaz, as the
   authorities destroyed all the mosques there." The report adds that the
   "Iranian occupation destroyed all the Sunni mosques in Al-Ahwaz, and all
   reports indicate that the situation is horrific in every sense of the
   word." The report claims that the Iranian authorities have recently "sent
   thousands of scholars and preachers to convert Sunnis t o the Shiite sect
   in Al-Ahwaz after the people of Al-Ahwaz had started to convert to the
   Sunni sect."

   http://www.almoslim.net/node/132498

   Islam Today 10 August 2010 (Islamtoday.net in Arabic -- Saudi cleric
   Shaykh Salman al-Awdah's official website, covering the clerics'
   activities in addition to Muslim, regional, and international issues. URL:
   http://www.islamtoday.net)

   The website carries a commentary entitled "Pakistan and America... The
   Worst has not come yet." The commentary says that there has been tension
   from time to time in Pakistani-US relations since President Obama took
   office. The commentary adds that there have been numerous question marks
   about the status of the "strategic alliance" between Washington and
   Islamabad in light of "the repeated criticisms by key figures in the Obama
   administration of the Pakistani role inside Afghanistan." The commentary
   highlights the "accusations" made by Se cretary of State Clinton and
   Defense Secretary Gates against Pakistan and its failure to play a role in
   "restoring stability in Afghanistan and fighting terrorism." The
   commentary expects further tensions in bilateral relations in the wake of
   the recent leak of 90,000 secret documents by Wikileaks, adding that this
   is attributable to "the atmosphere of distrust" between the two
   countries."

   http://www.islamtoday.net/albasheer/artshow-13-137642.htm

   Rasid 10 August 2010 (rasid.com in Arabic -- Website focusing mainly on
   Saudi Shiite issues. URL: http://www.rasid.com/)

   The website carries a report headlined "United States To Sell Saudi Arabia
   F-15s Without Weapons." The report cites The Wall Street Journal, saying
   that "the United States plans to sell Saudi Arabia 84 F-15 fighter
   aircraft but without equipping them with long-range missile systems due to
   Israel's protest." The report says the deal "is wort h $30 billion over 10
   years." The report says that some Israeli officials expressed to the Obama
   administration their fears that supplying Saudi Arabia with these advanced
   fighter aircraft might affect Israel's military superiority in the
   region."

   http://www.rasid.com/artc.php?id=39362

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   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   115) Back to Top
   Asustek Sales At Computer Show Up 30 Percent
   By Chang Liang-chih, Han Ting-ting and Frances Huang - Central News Agency
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 05:36:10 GMT
   Taipei, Aug. 10 (CNA) -- Personal computer firm AsusTek Computer Inc. had
   sales at t he 2010 Taipei Computer Applications Show that were 30 percent
   higher than a year earlier on stronger sales of notebook computers.

   "We saw sales at the five-day computer exhibition hit NT$150 million
   (US$4.74 million) , up about 30 percent from last year's event, " Jose
   Liao, AsusTek senior product manager, told the Central News Agency."The
   increase in sales was the result of the launch of new ultra-thin notebook
   computer models to stimulate buying," Liao said.The computer applications
   show attracted a record 640,000 visitors during its run from Aug. 5-9, a
   10 percent higher turnout than a year earlier, according to the Taiwan
   External Trade Development Council (TAITRA), the organizer of the trade
   show.During the show, AsusTek sold about 7,000 notebook computers, or one
   almost "every 30 minutes, " with its new U-series laptops proving
   particularly popular, according to TAITRA.AsusTek said its desktop
   computers, LCD displays, LED displays and navigation cell phones also
   attracted interest.On Monday, AsusTek reported that its sales in July rose
   11.8 percent from June to NT$23.07 billion, in contrast to rival computer
   makers that reported double-digit month-on-month declines in July
   revenues.Quanta Computer posted NT$86.19 billion in July sales, down 14
   percent from June, and Wistron Corp. had NT$48.97 billion in sales last
   month, down 12.8 percent from a month earlier.Mars Hsu, an analyst with
   Grand Cathay Securities, said sales of AsusTek's motherboards remained
   strong, helping offset declines in notebook computer demand.Quanta and
   Wistron serve as OEM manufacturers for top global notebook computer
   vendors, while AsusTek spun off its manufacturing arm in the first half of
   this year to focus on building its own brand.Goldman Sachs has lowered its
   forecast for shipment growth of the global notebook computer sector for
   the third quarter of this year to 5 percent from 9 percent.The investment
   bank said top global notebook computer vendors have cut their orders to
   their OEM suppliers, leading to declines in sales by those OEM companies
   in July."The expected weaker demand in the third quarter reflects a slower
   pace of global economic growth, " said Joanne Chien, head of research at
   Digitimes.Chien said "back to school" sales in Europe and the United
   States are worse than expected, and she believed the market also expects
   Christmas season sales to be less than satisfactory because of declining
   economic fundamentals.(Description of Source: Taipei Central News Agency
   in English -- "Central News Agency (CNA)," Taiwan's major state-run press
   agency; generally favors ruling administration in its coverage of domestic
   and international affairs; URL: http://www.cna.com.tw)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   116) Back to Top
   Foreign Office Seeks US Support To Tackle Devastating Floods
   Report by Kaswar Klasra: Pak can't handle flood calamity alone - The
   Nation Online
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 11:15:18 GMT
   ISLAMABAD - As the flood continues playing havoc across the country,
   moving into the southern Sindh province, Foreign Office made it very clear
   to US envoy on Monday that Pakistan was unable to tackle this catastrophe
   all alone.

   "We need the US to come forward and help us tackle this natural disaster
   as it is beyond our capacity to deal it by our own,"Secretary Foreign
   Office Salman Bashir told US Ambassador to Pakistan Ann W Peterson, said
   sources.

   However, spokesperson of US Embassy, when contacted, said he was unaware
   of th is meeting.

   "Yes, our Ambassador is back to Islamabad, however, I am not in knowledge
   of her meeting with Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir," Richard Snelsire,
   spokesperson of US Embassy in Islamabad told TheNation when contacted to
   confirm such meeting.

   However, spokesperson of Foreign Office did not take up calls made to his
   cell phone to confirm such meeting.

   Insiders told TheNation that Secretary Ministry of Foreign Affairs
   stressed upon the US Ambassador to Pakistan to grant more aid to Pakistan
   as it was an uphill task to tackle this natural disaster with limited
   sources.

   Ann W Peterson is said to have assured Salman Bashir to help Pakistan in
   every possible way. Also on Monday United Nations officials called for
   relief operations to be ramped up. Pakistan on Sunday said around 12
   million people have been afflicted by the worst floods in almost a
   century. US and Pakistani officials say rebuilding flood-hit areas will
   require more ass istance than pledged to Pakistan after 2005 earthquake.

   Meanwhile a team of US officials has arrived in Islamabad to help Pakistan
   tackle the flood crisis.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The Nation Online in English -- Website
   of a conservative daily, part of the Nawa-i-Waqt publishing group.
   Circulation around 20,000; URL: http://www.nation.com.pk)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   117) Back to Top
   Xinhua 'Feature': Gulf Coast Dogs Seek New Homes in New Jersey
   Xinhua "Feature": "Gulf Coast Dogs Seek New Homes in New Jersey" - Xinhua
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 00:38:46 GMT
   NEW YORK, Aug. 10 (Xinhua) -- Heather Cammisa, president of St. Hubert's
   Animal Welfare Center in the U.S. state of New Jersey, had a different
   take on the phrase "dog days" this summer.

   Her Center accommodated a total of 94 dogs transported from the Gulf of
   Mexico Coast last Friday, and they are now available for viewing and
   possible adoption since Tuesday."It was like Christmas here. We are so
   happy to welcome them in New Jersey, though it is very sad for the reason
   that they need to come here. It was like a dog afternoon," said Cammisa,
   recalling the dogs' arrival.The Humane Society of the United States
   partnered with St. Hubert's to help those 4-legged victims of the
   catastrophic Gulf oil spill to healthy homes in central New Jersey. Most
   of the dogs came from nine shelters along the Louisiana coast that saw an
   increase in families giving up their pets after the oil spill."A lot of
   families at Gulf Coast were downsizing and the livelihood had been ruined.
   The uncertainty had caused people to give up their animals. So the
   situation of the increase in surrender and decrease in adoption made us
   want to help out," Heather told Xinhua on Tuesday.It was quite an
   adventure for these 94 dogs of different sizes and types. They were
   trucked up north from overwhelmed Louisiana shelters and spent 24 hours in
   a crate. After they landed at St. Hubert's, staff handled them in a
   coordinated and smooth manner.They allowed them a stretch, a walk, a cold
   drink of water and a much needed break to relieve themselves. Then the
   shelter staff checked their paperwork, microchipped them and checked their
   overall condition to prepare them for the viewing and adoption.Marie
   Baeyens, who drove to the Center on Tuesday afternoon with her four
   children, said she would love to adopt a dog from here this summer."We all
   know what happened at the Gulf Coast. We thought it was a great
   opportunity to help out this wa y," said Marie.Almost every dog here has
   its own story. A black-and-white dog named "Oreo" came here with the Oreo
   cookies. A small puppy "Yoda" was given up when people moved into
   apartments.Bill Haskel took careful notes of each dog introduced by the
   staff, because he wants to find a proper partner for his dog Paco, which
   was also adopted from a pet shelter."I found Joan quite compatible in
   terms of size and temperament. I am really a dog person and I am happy to
   be able to help out," said Haskel, adding that he might adopt a dog on
   Wednesday.The 16-acre St. Hubert's has a very friendly adoption procedure.
   Visitors only need to fill out a form to tell something they are looking
   for, a couch potato dog, or a running partner, so the Center can help them
   find the right dogs for their homes.The Center also does follow-up calls
   after the adoption contract is signed. It also has a dog training school
   and dog trainers' calls to see if they can h elp with any transitional
   issues someone may have in the home.To foster the human-animal bond, St.
   Hubert's provides education programs to children coming to learn kindness
   and compassion for all living creatures. In summer, it organizes ice-
   cream social, where dog owners can come here to have ice cream while dogs
   can eat Frosty Paws ice cream."We want to be here for these animals, for
   the rest of their lives," said Cammisa.(Description of Source: Beijing
   Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language
   audiences (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   118) Back to Top
   Senators Submits Motion Against Issuance of Visas to 600 US N ationals
   Report by staff correspondent: JI moves Senate against Jang Group, Geo
   intimidation - The News Online
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 10:02:04 GMT
   ISLAMABAD: The Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) has submitted an adjournment motion in
   the Senate Secretariat against the closure of transmission of Geo TV and
   ARY TV channel, and burning of copies of The News and the Daily Jang.

   The adjournment motion, which bears signatures of JI Senators Professor
   Khurshid Ahmad, Professor Muhammad Ibrahim and Dr Aafia Zia, said the
   transmission of Geo TV was blocked, and copies of the publications of the
   Jang Group were burnt at the behest and patronage of the government.

   "The condemnable action amounts to curbing freedom of the press and create
   harassment against the media and journalists," said the senators in the
   motion. In another adjournment motion, the senators raise issue of the i
   ssuance of multiple visas to 600 US nationals.

   The third adjournment motion pertained to the death of three children
   including two sisters in Faisalabad after getting some injections. They
   regretted neither any investigation was conducted into the incidents, nor
   was any action taken against those responsible for tragic deaths.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The News Online in English -- Website of
   a widely read, influential English daily, member of the Jang publishing
   group. Neutral editorial policy, good coverage of domestic and
   international issues. Usually offers leading news and analysis on issues
   related to war against terrorism. Circulation estimated at 55,000; URL:
   http://www.thenews.com.pk/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   &lt;/ a&gt;119) Back to Top
   S. Koreans Going to The U.S. to Start Paying Fees For Electronic Travel
   Authorization Next Month - Yonhap
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 02:27:47 GMT
   S Koreans-US travel-fees

   S. Koreans going to the U.S. to start paying fees for electronic travel
   authorization next monthSEOUL, Aug. 11 (Yonhap) -- South Koreans traveling
   to the United States under the visa waiver program (VWP) will have to pay
   for the necessary travel authorization starting next month, the foreign
   ministry here said Wednesday.According to the ministry, the U.S. Customs
   and Border Protection has announced that travelers from 36 VWP countries,
   including South Korea, must pay US$14 to apply for the Electronic System
   for Travel Authorization (ESTA) beginning Sept. 8."The payments for ESTA
   must be made by credit card or debit card,&amp;q uot; a ministry official
   said. "When South Korea joined the VWP in 2008, the U.S. had already
   explained the possibility that it could start charging for ESTA."Nationals
   of the VWP countries can stay in the U.S. for up to 90 days without a
   visa. Under the VWP rules, obtaining ESTA prior to travel to the U.S. has
   been mandatory since January 2009.Once approved, ESTA is valid for
   multiple entries into the U.S. for up to two years, or until the
   applicant's passport expires or other situations that warrant a
   reapplication, whichever comes first.The Customs and Border Protection
   said travelers with an approved ESTA will not need to pay again when
   updating their applications. Those with new passports, however, will have
   to pay the fee when reapplying for the ESTA.The agency said US$4 of the
   total fee will cover its costs of providing and administering the ESTA
   system, while the remainder is the mandatory fee under the U.S. Travel
   Promotion Act of 2009.(Description of Sour ce: Seoul Yonhap in English --
   Semiofficial news agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   120) Back to Top
   Mexico Economic Issues 10 Aug 10 - Mexico -- OSC Summary
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 18:20:59 GMT
   -- Mexico City El Financiero reports that according to figures released by
   the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), Mexico's international reserves continued to
   grow and saw their 22 nd historic maximum so far this year. Banxico
   reported that from 2 to 6 August, Mexico's international reserves had
   increased by $757 million to an unprecedented $105.62 billion . (Mexico
   City El Financiero en linea in Spanish -- Website of major national
   business and financial daily; URL

   http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx ) SCT
   Promotes Greater Security in Ports, Ships

   -- Mexico's Secretariat of Communications and Transportation (SCT) reports
   in press statement 128 that the secretariat has taken measures and
   acquired new equipment to improve the security of the country's ports and
   ships. (OSC is translating the full text of this press release as
   LAP20100810050001 Mexico Promotes Security on Ships, Port Facilities With
   New Measures, Equipment) Trade Unions Take Measures To Allow Survival of
   Mexicana

   -- Mexico City El Universal reports that given Mexicana de Aviacion's
   (CMA) difficult financial situation, trade unions representing the
   airline's workers have adopted measures to ensure its survival. Thus, the
   National Trade Union of Transport, Transformation, Aviation, and Services
   Workers (SNTTTASS) repo rted that it was negotiating with Mexicana on the
   voluntary discharge of 150 ground workers. Meanwhile, the Trade Union of
   Aviation Pilots (ASPA) announced that all pilots at Mexicana and at the
   airline's Click subsidiary would accept the deferred payment of their
   salaries and would continue to fly "for a reasonable period," in order to
   allow the airline to resume ticket sales and ensure cash flow as soon as
   possible. Furthermore, the pilots' union revealed that it was in talks
   with possible investors who could help to ensure Mexicana's long-term
   viability. (Mexico City EL UNIVERSAL.com.mx in Spanish -- Website of
   influential centrist daily; URL

   http://www.eluniversal.com.mx http://www.eluniversal.com.mx ) Mexicana Not
   To Pay Salaries

   -- In a related item, Monterrey El Norte reports that none of the three
   airlines in Grupo Mexicana de Aviacion (GMA) -- Mexicana, Click, and Link
   -- will be able to pay the salaries of their employees today. According to
   a letter addressed to the employees by GMA Human Resources director Manuel
   Escobar, the company lacks the necessary funds to pay their salaries,
   which were due on 10 August. Escobar explained that this decision had been
   made to optimize the airline's resources and to maintain operations, thus
   allowing the maximum possible number of passengers to complete their
   flights. (Monterrey El Norte.com in Spanish --Website of northern Mexico
   centrist daily, owned by Grupo Reforma; URL:

   http://www.elnorte.com http://www.elnorte.com ) Judge Grants Bankruptcy
   Protection to Comercial Mexicana

   -- Mexico City Reforma reports that a federal judge granted bankruptcy
   protection to Controladora Comercial Mexicana (Comerci), which will grant
   the retail giant one year for the financial restructuring of the company.
   Comerci had requested the measure and had presented a debt restructuring
   plan already agreed with most of its creditors. (Mexico City REFORMA.com
   in Spanish -- Website o f major center-right daily owned by Grupo Reforma;
   URL:

   http://www.reforma.com http://www.reforma.com )

   Attachments:ATTH4YZ5.doc

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   121) Back to Top
   Mexico Regional Press 10 Aug 10 - Mexico -- OSC Summary
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 18:25:03 GMT
   Acapulco, Guerrero, El Sur reports that in a document that was delivered
   at the National Action Party's (PAN) National Executive Committee (CEN)
   and national elections committee, a group of state leaders of the party in
   Guerrero led by Carlos Millan Sanchez presented the results of a poll that
   showed that 65% of the members of the PAN oppose to joining a coalition
   with the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), the Labor Party (PT),
   and the Convergence Party. Millan stated that the members of the PAN in
   Guerrero "do not want a 'blind' alliance, they do not want to be a filler
   in an electoral alliance and they do not accept an alliance created under
   the exclusive conditions of the PRD. We must find a coalition with other
   parties, we cannot be in a coalition where they tell us that we are useful
   and where we will later not be taken into consideration." The poll also
   showed that Millan was the most popular pre-candidate with 52% of the
   votes, the Mexican Ambassador in Colombia Florencio Salazar Adame received
   37% and the Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock, Rural Development,
   Fisheries, and Food (Sagarpa) delegate Jorge Camacho Penaloza was favored
   by 3%. (Acapulco El Sur Online in Spanish - Website of daily from Guerrero
   State; URL:

   http://www.suracapulco.c om.mx/ http://www.suracapulco.com.mx )
   POST-ELECTORAL NEWS AGUASCALIENTES Incoming Governor To Face Serious
   Public Debt --

   Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mural reports that the PAN-run administration of
   Aguascalientes Governor Luis Armando Reynoso Femat will leave PRI
   Governor-elect Carlos Lozano de la Torre with a public debt of more than
   2.29 billion pesos ($180 million), which will prevent him from being able
   to request any additional funds for the state. In addition, the
   elimination of the car owner's tax (tenencia) would decrease the
   government's current's tax collection by 230 million pesos ($18 million).
   When Reynoso's term began, the State of Aguascalientes had a public debt
   of 377.7 million pesos ($29.71 million). (Guadalajara Mural.com in Spanish
   -- Website of daily from Jalisco State, owned by Grupo Reforma; URL:

   http://www.mural.com/ http://www.mural.com ) OAXACA Opposition Party Block
   To 'Veto' PRI in Congress --

   Mexico City Reforma reports that 15 o f the 17 existing deputies of the
   current opposition parties in Oaxaca (the PAN, the PRD, the PT, the
   Convergence Party, and the Social Democratic Party (PSD)) have committed
   not to support any bills that are proposed by the PRI in order to avoid
   the party from having the majority vote in congress. The PAN coordinator
   Dagoberto Carreno Gopar explained that with this alliance, the PRI will be
   unable to approve any constitutional reforms that could hinder the
   performance of the the next state government, which will be headed by
   Gabino Cue Monteagudo. (Mexico City Reforma.com in Spanish -- Website of
   major center-right daily owned by Grupo Reforma; URL:

   http://www.reforma.com/ http://www.reforma.com/ ) POLITICS CHIHUAHUA
   Governor: Prisons Hone Criminal Skills --

   Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua, El Diario reports that Chihuahua Governor Jose
   Reyes Baeza has declared that the scheme and programs behind the so-called
   Social Rehabilitation Centers (Cereso) have failed beca use many of the
   inmates that are released leave prison with new and improved criminal
   skills. In spite of all the efforts, the authorities have been unable to
   avoid internal confrontations that have produced the death on many
   prisoners. "We have failed in the process of rehabilitation on a national
   level, in the process of reintroducing the processed individuals into
   society. I believe that the main objective has fail ed, we have caused
   that that when those who are serving their time leave, they show a higher
   level of violence," said Reyes. (Ciudad Juarez El Diario Online in Spanish
   -- Website of most widely read daily in border area, founded in 1976 and
   published in Chihuahua State; URL:

   http://www.diario.com.mx/ http://www.diario.com.mx ) Crime Prevention
   Campaign Distributes Informative Pamphlets --

   Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua, El Diario reports that the Secretariat of Public
   Security (SSP) in Chihuahua has launched a crime prevention campaign that
   is distributing thousands of informative pamphlets featuring basic
   recommendations that will allow the people of Chihuahua to avoid becoming
   victims of the criminals by following a series of simply guidelines. The
   project is expected to directly reach and benefit 750,000 people in all of
   the state. The information will also be broadcasted in the different
   media, including brochures, posters, booklets, etc. ECONOMY OAXACA
   Remittances From US Decrease 4.11% in Oaxaca --

   Oaxaca, Oaxaca, Diario Despertar reports that according to information
   from the Bank of Mexico, the people of Oaxaca have received $598.6 million
   in remittances from their families that are working in the United States
   from January to June 2010. Even though the figure has dropped 4.11%
   compared to 2009, Oaxaca is still among the top ten states that receive
   foreign currency in the form of remittances. (Oaxaca Diario Despertar
   Online in Spanish -- Website of daily from Oaxaca State, founded in 2008
   and p ublished by Editorial Tercer Milenio, S.A.; URL:

   http://www.diariodespertar.com.mx/ http://www.diariodespertar.com.mx )

   The following media were scanned and no file worthy items were found:

   Hermosillo El Imparcial.com, Merida El Diario de Yucatan, Merida PorEsto!
   Online, Mexico City El Universal.com.mx, Mexico City Excelsior Online,
   Mexico City La Jornada Online, Mexico City Milenio.com, Monterrey El
   Norte.com, Oaxaca El Imparcial Online, Tijuana Frontera.info, and Tuxtla
   Gutierrez Cuarto Poder.com.mx

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   122) Back to Top
   Mexico Political Issues 10 Aug 10 - Mexico -- OSC Summary
   Tuesday Augu st 10, 2010 17:37:37 GMT
   -- Mexico City El Universal reports that President Felipe Calderon
   revealed the content of a letter sent to the leaders of Mexico's political
   parties, with whom he is scheduled to meet to discuss a State strategy
   against organized crime. In his letter, Calderon urged the political
   parties to close ranks against organized crime. (Mexico City EL
   UNIVERSAL.com.mx in Spanish -- Website of influential centrist daily; URL

   http://www.eluniversal.com.mx http://www.eluniversal.com.mx ) (OSC is
   translating the full text of this article as LAP20100810016003 Mexico:
   Calderon Urges Parties To Close Ranks Against Crime) Debate on
   Legalization of Drugs: Fox Reaffirms Support for Legalization of Drugs

   -- Mexico City El Universal reports that after defending the legalization
   of drugs in an article published on his blog, former President Vicente Fox
   reaffirmed his position in a radio interview, and he call ed for the
   withdrawal of the Armed Forces from the fight against organized crime.
   (OSC is translating the full text of this article as LAP20100810016004
   Mexico's Fox Defends Legalization of Drugs) PAN Legislators Reject Fox's
   Proposal To Legalize Drugs

   -- In a related item, Mexico City Excelsior reports that a number of
   deputies and senators belonging to the PAN (National Action Party)
   rejected former President Vicente Fox's proposal to legalize the
   production, sale, and distribution of drugs, arguing that this would have
   a negative impact on Mexican society. Deputy Mario Alberto Becerra
   Pocoroba declared that "we cannot legalize (drugs) here if they are not
   legalized in the United States, and if we did so we would have to see the
   consequences to our country." Meanwhile, Deputy Javier Corral declared
   that before debating on the possible legalization of drugs, it was
   necessary to root out police corruption. Senator Guillermo Tamborrel added
   that Fox's proposa l was "unacceptable, especially now that we have
   started to win spaces back from drug trafficking." (Mexico City EXonline
   in Spanish -- Website of major right-of-center daily Excelsior owned by
   Grupo Imagen; URL

   http://www.exonline.com.mx http://www.exonline.com.mx ) Other Political
   News: Calderon Calls for Reduction of Red Tape

   -- Mexico City El Universal reports that after the federal government
   announced the elimination of 12,234 administrative proceedings that were
   considered superfluous, President Felipe Calderon urged the Legislative
   branch, as well as Mexico's state and municipal administrations, to follow
   suit. Furthermore, Calderon urged society at large to demand this
   elimination and simplification of red tape. Calderon was accompanied by
   Finance Secretary Ernesto Cordero, Economy Secretary Bruno Ferrari, Health
   Secretary Jose Angel Cordova, and Secretary of Communications and
   Transportation Juan Molinar Horcasitas. Interior Secretary Reaffi rms
   Commitment to Safety of Media

   -- Mexico City Reforma reports that Interior Secretary Francisco Blake met
   with UN Special Rapporteur on Freedom of Expression Frank La Rue and with
   his OAS (Organization of American States) counterpart Catalina Botero.
   During the meeting, Blake expressed the Mexican Government's commitment to
   the protection of journalists. (Mexico City REFORMA.com in Spanish --
   Website of major center-right daily owned by Grupo Reforma; URL:

   http://www.reforma.com/ http://www.reforma.com/ ) Editorials &amp;amp;
   Commentary: PAN Chairman Argues Against Legalization of Drugs

   -- A commentary by PAN Chairman Cesar Nava in Mexico City El Universal
   argues that the legalization of drugs would not resolve the problems of
   crime and violence, and would increase the number of drug addicts in Mexi
   co. (OSC is translating this commentary as LAP20100810016005 Mexico:
   Ruling Party Chairman Argues Against Legalization of Drugs) Commentator
   Declares Alig nment With US Policies Prevents Move Toward Drug
   Legalization

   -- A commentary by Jorge Fernandez Menendez in Mexico City Excelsior
   questions Vicente Fox's call for the legalization and taxation of drugs,
   after the former president failed to take any action in this direction
   during his administration. Fernandez Menendez responds that during his
   term, Fox -- like other former Mexican and Latin American leaders who have
   defended the need to legalize drugs after leaving office -- had no choice
   but to align his policies with those of the United States, which ruled out
   the possibility of legalizing drugs. The commentator laments that none of
   those former leaders have explained the obstacles that prevented them from
   promoting the legalization of drugs while they were in office. On a
   separate topic, Fernandez Menendez declares that the recent cases of
   corruption in the Federal Police (PF) do not invalidate the need to
   centralize police commands. In response to those who claim that corruption
   affects all law enforcement bodies and that unifying those bodies would
   therefore be pointless, Fernandez Menendez declares that at least in the
   latest case of corruption in the PF there was a higher authority able to
   dismiss the corrupt officers, while no such action is possible in cases of
   corrupt municipal police forces. Commentator Supports Legalization of
   Drugs, Warns of Complications

   -- A commentary by Leo Zuckermann in Mexico City Excelsior welcomes the
   debate on the legalization of drugs, and argues that this issue is better
   treated as a matter of public health than of public security. Furthermore,
   Zuckermann argues that the State will never be able to win the war on drug
   trafficking, as there will always be someone willing to sell drugs for as
   long as there is someone willing to use and buy them. Nevertheless,
   Zuckermann argues against the total legalization of all drugs overnight,
   and he suggests a gradual legalization, starting with marijua na. The
   commentator adds that the State would have to impose and enforce strict
   regulations on all stages of the drug trade, including stiff taxation to
   pay for the health costs generated by their use, as well as firm controls
   to prevent drug sales to minors. Furthermore, Zuckermann warns that if
   legalization cut off the income source of today's drug trafficking
   cartels, these organized criminals would branch out into other activities
   such as extortion and kidnapping. Zuckermann concludes that the
   legalization of drugs by itself will not resolve the problem of organized
   crime. Commentator Sees Drug Legalization as 'Common Sense'

   -- A commentary by Federico Reyes Heroles in Mexico City Reforma declares
   that the ongoing war against drug trafficking in Mexico, with its rising
   death toll and apparent stalemate, represents an "affront against common
   sense," when seen in conjunction with the increasing trend toward the
   legalization of marijuana use in the United States. Reyes Heroles
   celebrates President Felipe Calderon's invitation to debate the possible
   legalization of certain drugs and he argues that this measure would
   strengthen the Mexican State. The commentator argues that Calderon has the
   "moral authority" to organize an international conference on the issue,
   which would "reveal the double or triple standards of some nations."

   The following media were scanned and no file-worthy items were noted:

   (Mexico City La Jornada Online in Spanish -- Website of major left-leaning
   daily, critical of PAN and PRI administrations; URL:

   http://www.jornada.unam.mx http://www.jornada.unam.mx )

   (Mexico City Milenio.com in Spanish -- Website of independent, centrist
   daily owned by Grupo Editorial Milenio; URL:

   http://www.milenio.com/ http://www.milenio.com/ )

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from th e copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   123) Back to Top
   Asia-pacific Posts Highest Air Passenger Traffic in H1 - Yonhap
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 02:12:37 GMT
   Asia-Pacific-air traffic

   Asia-Pacific posts highest air passenger traffic in H1SEOUL, Aug. 11
   (Yonhap) -- Demand for air travel in the Asia-Pacific region was the
   highest in the world in the first half of the year thanks to a speedy
   recovery from the global financial turmoil and China's fast economic
   growth, data showed Wednesday.The region's air passenger traffic reached
   494.3 million in the January-June period, up 1.5 percent from the same
   period in 2008, according to the data by the Airports Council
   International (ACI).It is the first time the Asia-Pacific region has
   outperformed Europe and the United States in terms of air passenger
   traffic.According to the ACI data, Europe's air passenger traffic fell 7.3
   percent from two years ago to 488.6 million, due to the ash clouds from
   Iceland's volcanic eruption that disrupted flight schedules in April.
   Europe topped the list in the first half of 2008.The number for the U.S.
   slumped 7.7 percent to total 471.9 million in the six-month period,
   ranking third worldwide.The world's total air passenger traffic edged up
   0.7 percent from the same period two years earlier to 1.66 billion in the
   first half, the data showed.(Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in
   English -- Semiofficial news agency of the ROK; URL:
   http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

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   124) Back to Top
   `Smart TV Shock` to Revolutionize Industry - Dong-A Ilbo Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 01:35:16 GMT
   (DONG-A ILBO) - Intense competition since the 1980s had resulted in thin
   profit margins for PC makers, but Microsoft earned a bundle through its
   epoch-making Windows operating system.

   The mobile phone industry has undergone a major shakeup after Apple
   launched the iPhone with its cutting-edge software and applications.

   A similar big bang is set to happen in the TV market.

   Apple and Google, the main drivers of the smartphone boom, will launch
   smart TVs to challenge the world's top two TV manufacturers, Samsung
   Electronics and LG Electronics.

   Smart TV goes beyond showing TV programs or movies from the Internet. The
   new concept TV allows users to download Web application s and share a
   broad array of Internet content in electronics devices such as laptops and
   mobile phones.

   Korean companies have suffered from "iPhone shock" and are keen to
   maintain their lead in the TV market. Critics say, however, that lack of
   software capability can pose a major hurdle for Korean companies as it did
   in the smartphone sector.

    Prompt action by Samsung and LG

   Google in May teamed up with Sony and Intel and will roll out smart TVs in
   this year's second half. The plan is to combine Sony's TV manufacturing
   technology and movie content with Intel's CPU expertise. Apple is pushing
   its own smart TV venture, planning to release soon smart TVs containing
   television receivers in addition to set-top boxes already on sale.

   Against this backdrop, Samsung and LG are rushing to develop their own
   operating systems and applications for smart TVs.

   Following its release of IPTV in 2007, Samsung launched the application
   store Samsun g Apps this year to allow the downloading of Internet
   applications on TVs. The company is rushing to secure content through
   partnerships with foreign video content providers Blockbuster, Vudu,
   Netflix and Pandora.

   To provide content to overseas customers, Samsung also holds Samsung Apps
   contests for application developers in Korea, the U.S. and Europe.

   Industry sources say Samsung and SK Telecom have invested 25 billion won
   (21.3 million U.S. dollars) to build an open innovation center, which will
   be expanded to support apps and content for TVs in addition to mobile
   phone content.

   LG set up a team exclusively for smart TVs to release the sets early next
   year. It is also developing an operating system and chipset for smart TVs
   and will introduce an apps store.

   LG Electronics Vice President Jung Do-hyun said, "Smart TVs are likely to
   become more common going forward, so we'll promote the convergence of TV,
   PC and mobile phone businesses and bui ld an integrated platform."

    Major hurdles

   Critics, however, speculate that Korean companies will need time to catch
   up with the smart TV apps made by Apple and Google.

   A Samsung Electronics source said, "It's not easy to find apps that can
   compete in TVs." While the company earlier rejected a proposal from Google
   for a smart TV alliance, it is now open to collaborate with Google and
   Apple.

   Lack of content creation capability has reportedly pushed Samsung
   Electronics to change its stance.

   The emphasis of Korean companies on hardware is another problem. A smart
   TV is different from a smartphone, which is a simple electronic device,
   and should be considered a software platform that enables the downloading
   of content from the Internet.

   Samsung is increasing the number of software developers but the way they
   are perceived and treated are problematic. Choi Seon-gyu, a digital media
   professor at Myongji University in Seoul, said, "Samsung and LG still tend
   to treat developers like simple contract workers. An environment in which
   developers can take the lead in product development should be formed."

   Forming a value chain among telecom operators, broadcasters and cable
   companies is also important. Fears are rising among terrestrial and cable
   TV operators over a monopoly of TV ad revenues by platform developers such
   as Google and Apple.

   Lee Gyeong-suk, a research fellow at Korea Institute for Industrial
   Economics and Trade, said, "There is the possibility that resistance from
   related parties can delay the smart TV business, as was the case with
   IPTV."

   (Description of Source: Seoul Dong-A Ilbo Online in English -- English
   website carrying English summaries and full translation of vernacular hard
   copy items of the second-oldest major ROK daily Dong-A Ilbo, which is
   conservative in editorial orientation -- generally pro-US, anti-North
   Korea; URL: http://engli sh.donga.com)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   125) Back to Top
   Intelligence Minister Warns Conversion to Christianity Part of Soft
   Warfare - Fars News Agency
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 09:51:59 GMT
   intelligence has said: "Conversion of schoolchildren in the country to
   Christianity is one of the enemy's projects in the soft warfare, (with the
   "enemy") acting with the slogan 'Only Jesus'."

   According to a report by the reporter on social issues of the Tavana news
   club of Fars news agency, (Intelligence Minister) Hojjat ol-Eslam Heydar
   Moslehi spoke this evening (9 August ) at the closing ceremony of the 27th
   gathering of heads of regional offices of the Ministry of Education from
   across the country, held in the Hall of Meetings of Heads of Islamic
   Countries. He said, referring to different threats by the enemy to
   overthrow the system (of the Islamic Republic): "One of the enemy's plots
   in the soft warfare is conversion of schoolchildren to Christianity,
   which, according to information received, has been launched in schools by
   the Protestant movement 'Only Jesus', which is supported by Zionists."He
   added: "This trend, like Christianity in the USA, is connected with the
   Zionist regime whom we certainly consider different from the religious
   minorities recognized officially in the Islamic system."Hojjat ol-Eslam
   Moslehi added: "They have succeeded in influencing and guiding a number of
   teachers and schoolchildren by establishing NGOs in the education sphere
   and, certainly, this issue is not raised due to the importance a nd
   intensity of their work but as a warning about the existing situation."The
   minister of intelligence noted that during the 30 years after the
   Revolution the enemy has tried to confront the pure Islam of the Prophet
   Muhammad by smart soft warfare. He said: "One of the important arenas of
   this soft warfare is the education sphere; certainly, despite the
   successful experience that the enemy has had in this regard, it has not
   succeeded in achieving its goals due to the peculiarities of Iran's
   Islamic system."(Passage omitted: Minister talks about the West's past
   efforts against the Soviet Union in soft warfare; 17bn dollars invested in
   unrest in Iran)Interesting document on enemy's investment in
   educationHojjat ol-Eslam Moslehi said: By misusing teacher's name, some
   counter-revolutionary foundation, which has received 315,000 dollars from
   the enemy at one stage alone, is performing activities against the Islamic
   system. Therefore, a set of documents indicates th at imperialism focuses
   on education, especially schoolchildren, in the soft warfare.(Passage
   omitted: Minister criticizes establishment of Baha'i kindergartens in the
   country, secularist tendencies among post-election rioters' leaders,
   Iranian students abroad being recruited by foreign intelligence
   services)Decryption of enemy's e-mail passwords by Unknown Soldiers of
   Lord of Time within 48 hoursHe went on: "In the process of observation of
   seditionists' and their leaders' e-mails, as soon as they felt danger, all
   their e-mails were encoded within 24 hours by the US espionage
   organization (CIA) and Mossad, but through the devoted efforts of the
   Unknown Soldiers of the Lord of Time (intelligence agents) they have all
   been decrypted within 48 hours, this being a heavy blow to the
   enemy."(Passage omitted: Minister speaks about threat of soft warfare and
   need for education workers to cooperate with Iran's intelligence
   services)He noted: "Our responsibility in this regard is to inform workers
   of the education and cultural system and schoolchildren about conspiracies
   and threats of the enemy, while the responsibility of the workers of the
   education and cultural system is to inform immediately the Unknown
   Soldiers of the Lord of Time about suspicious moves in the education
   system."(Description of Source: Tehran Fars News Agency in Persian --
   hardline pro-Ahmadinezhad news agency; headed as of December 2007 by Hamid
   Reza Moqaddamfar, who was formerly an IRGC cultural officer; www.fars.ir)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   126) Back to Top
   Iran -- Foreign Ministry Briefing; Rules Out New War (2) - Islamic
   Republic of Iran News Network Telev ision (IRINN)
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 08:39:46 GMT
   continues its live relay of a briefing by Iranian Foreign Ministry
   spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast in Tehran.

   The spokesman said he rules out the possibility of a new war in the
   region."Our view is that despite the intentions of several groups in
   America or the West, especially the Zionist regime, to damage security in
   the region, funds invested in this ill-considered action rule out the
   possibility of a war. That is, there are a lot of serious provocations,
   but extremely high costs will reduce the possibility of this becoming
   reality," Mehmanparast said.Mehmanparast also commented on the fact that
   his country is seeking the expulsion of the opposition Mojahedin-e Khalq
   Organization (MKO) from Iraq. He also urged Interpol and international
   organization to secure their extradition to Iran."As regards the
   hypocrites (re ferring to the MKO), as a terrorist group that has killed
   more than 12,000 innocent people in our country, documents on these crimes
   have been submitted to Interpol and various countries, and we seek the
   expulsion of members of this terrorist group from Iraq," he said."We think
   that such groups should not be based in neighbouring countries,"
   Mehmanparast said. "The existence of such groups may damage relations and
   endanger the security of that country. We seek to ensure that criminal
   members of this terrorist group of hypocrites are handed over to us by
   Interpol and international organizations. Those who believe that they have
   not committed a crime can return to their families," the spokesman
   added.Mehmanparast criticized the International Court for not considering
   Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah's statement that Israel was implicated in
   the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri."If
   there is evidence that can hold the Zionist regime accountable, why didn't
   the International Court even bother to work on this theory according to
   which it is possible that this terrorist attack was committed by the
   Zionist regime?" Mehmanparast asserted."The court is looking for a
   political process, not a legal one," he said.Hezbollah leader Hasan
   Nasrallah said recently that he had documents implicating Israel in
   al-Hariri's assassination and that his assassination was of benefit to Tel
   Aviv.Further as warranted.(Description of Source: Tehran Islamic Republic
   of Iran News Network Television (IRINN) in Persian -- 24-hour news channel
   of state-run television, officially controlled by the office of the
   supreme leader)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
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   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
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   127) Back to Top
   Embassy Unaware of Suspected Spy's Plans to Go Back to Peru - Interfax
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 08:12:17 GMT
   MOSCOW. Aug 10 (Interfax) - The Peruvian Embassy in Moscow has no
   information as to whether one of the suspects in the recent spy scandal
   between Russia and the U.S., deported to Russia, wants to go back to the
   South American country."We have no such information at the moment," the
   Peruvian diplomatic mission in Russia told Interfax on Tuesday.On August 7
   the U.S. newspaper The Wall Street Journal wrote that Juan Lazaro, whose
   real name is, according to some documents, Mikhail Vasenkov, who was
   involved in the recent spy story, would like to go back to Peru with his
   Peruvian passport. The newspaper cited his lawyer Genesis Peduto as
   saying.The spy scandal broke out in late June, when the U.S. exposed a ne
   twork of illegal agents who allegedly worked for Russian intelligence. The
   U.S. authorities arrested and then deported eleven people, including
   Lasaro, to Russia.kk mj(Our editorial staff can be reached at
   eng.editors@interfax.ru)Interfax-950040-WRMZCBAA

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   128) Back to Top
   Immigration Bureau Reportedly Apprehends 302 Human Trafficking Victims
   Report by Gemma Garcia and Ludy Bermudo: "302 Filipinos Victims of Human
   Trafficking" - Pilipino Star Ngayon
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 12:46:44 GMT
   (NAIA) prevented 302 Filipinos, suspected of being victims of hu man
   trafficking, from leaving the country.

   According to a report by BI Officer in Charge Ronald Ledesma, most of the
   passengers are believed to be unregistered overseas Filipino workers, who
   pretend to be tourists.

   Arvin Ramos, chief of the BI airport operations division, said that of the
   302 passengers, 284 were prevented from leaving NAIA, while 18 were held
   back at Mactan International Airport in Cebu.

   The incident took place on 4 and 5 August, a day after a reshuffle of
   airport personnel.

   A source said that most of the apprehended passengers had no employment
   permit and clearance from the Philippine Overseas Employment
   Administration, that they were not legitimate tourists and that they were
   on their way to other countries for work.

   Ledesma vowed that nobody could stop the campaign of his agency to stop
   human trafficking operations in all airports of the country.

   Ledesma immediately deployed additional personnel at NAIA, Clark, S ubic,
   and Cebu airports as part of the antihuman trafficking campaign.

   The focus of the new administration is to resolve the worsening human
   trafficking in the country after the United States rated the Philippines
   "Tier 2" in human trafficking.

   (Description of Source: Manila Pilipino Star Ngayon in Tagalog --
   Privately owned tabloid daily; sister publication to the English-language
   Philippine Star. Good coverage of political developments in Manila.)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   129) Back to Top
   Police Raid Google Korea, Say Personal Information Illegally Collected
   Updated version: replacing 0906 GMT version with source-supplied 1106 GMT
   update, which "UPDATES with Google executive's remarks at bottom,"
   upgrading precedence, rewording headline; Yonhap headline: "Police raid
   Google Korea on suspicion of communication law violation" - Yonhap
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 11:20:22 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   130) Back to Top
   Panama Media 10 Aug 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Panama -- OSC Summary
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 19:10:03 GMT
   mailto:oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.

   The following is a selection of press highlights from the Panamanian media
   on 10 August 2010: Security and Law Enforcement News 470 Homicides in
   First Seven Months of 2010 --

   Panama City El Siglo reports on the results of an investigation into the
   nationwide crime rate. During the month of July there were 51 violent
   crimes for a total of 470 homicides in the first seven months of 2010, an
   average of 2.2 per day. This figure is a 3.7% increase -- 17 victims --
   over last year's total for the same period. According to statistics
   gathered by El Siglo, weekends are the most violent time periods, with
   62.7% of the crimes taking place between Fridays and Sundays. (Panama City
   El Siglo.com in Spanish -- Online version of daily tabloid owned by the
   Waked Group -- URL:

   http://www.elsiglo.com/ http://www.elsiglo.co m ) (OSC plans on texting
   this item.) Panama City, Colon Among Most Violent Places --

   In related news, Panama City El Siglo reports that the most violent places
   are Panama City (with 45% of crimes taking place there), the San Miguelito
   District (19.6%), Bocas del Toro Province (7.8%) and Colon Province
   (11.8%). Trends indicate that crimes in these places are due mostly to
   gang violence and the large number of firearms on the streets. According
   to the National Police (PN), there are 93 gangs in Panama City, 50 in San
   Miguelito, and 44 in Colon. (OSC plans on texting this item.) Political
   News Special Commission on Law 30 Opens Up Dialogue --

   Panama City Presidency of the Republic of Panama reports on the results of
   the first meeting of the Special Commission For Dialogue on Law 30. Luis
   Ernesto Carles, deputy minister of labor and labor development, reported
   that the commission members admitted the recent executive resolution
   authorizing the review of Law 30 in full. The commission also agreed on
   the need for other sectors to participate in the discussion, as the bill
   in question deals not only with labor issues, but also those related to
   aviation, the environment, and criminal issues. Present at the first
   meeting were representatives from various labor organizations, the private
   business sector, the Catholic Church, and deputies from both the ruling
   and opposition legislative blocs, among others. Carles expressed
   satisfaction over opening up the discussion with technical experts in the
   areas in question. The next meeting is scheduled for Wednesday 11 August.
   (Panama City Presidency of the Republic of Panama Online in Spanish --
   Official website of the Presidency of the Republic of Panama; URL:

   http://www.presidencia.gob.pa/ http://www.presidencia.gob.pa ) Labor
   Unions Threaten To Withdraw From Dialogue --

   In related news, Panama City La Prensa reports that the labor union
   representatives threatened to withdraw from p articipating in the dialogue
   if the government does not annul Law 30. Andres Becker, of the Trade Union
   of Banana Industry Workers and Related Companies (Sitraibana), said that
   the organization had agreed to participate with the purpose of getting the
   controversial bill annulled. Failing that, he said, the group will take
   other measures. He added that people in Bocas del Toro have not forgotten
   the violent clashes that took place last month between banana workers and
   the police. Becker warned that if Sitraibana members do not receive a
   positive answer, they will take to the streets again with increased
   fervor. Meanwhile, union leader Saul Mendez, of the Single National Union
   of Construction and Related Workers (Suntracs), said that the meeting
   served to prove there are two radically different points of view: the
   government speaks of reviewing Law 30, while the labor unions demand its
   annulment. He refused to continue parti cipating in the dialogue if both
   Law 30 and the bill known as the "jailhouse law" (criminalizing street
   protests) are not annulled. He threatened to call for a 24-hour strike at
   the end of August if the parties fail to reach an agreement. In contrast,
   Deputy Minister Carles dismissed the possibility of fully annulling Law 30
   because the agreement reached in Changuinola, Bocas del Toro, only dealt
   with its review. This is despite the government having recently expressed
   willingness to discuss the bill as a whole. Carles announced the topics to
   be discussed at the next meeting, which include the possibility of other
   sectors participating through sub-commissions to discuss specific aspects
   of the bill. Furthermore, Vice President and Foreign Minister Juan Carlos
   Varela said that the 90-day period established for suspending three
   articles of the law is ample time for overcoming the difficulties
   generated by the Bocas del Toro events. Nonetheless, discussion on the
   draft bill to suspend the articles remains deadlocked at the National
   Assembly. Deputy Rogelio Paredes, of the opposition Democratic
   Revolutionary Party (PRD), said that the issue is being delayed
   intentionally. Deputy Luis Eduardo Quiros, of the Panamenista Party (PP),
   denied this, adding that the draft bill would be approved later this week.
   (Panama City Prensa.com in Spanish -- Website of most widely circulated
   daily, pro-business; URL:

   http://www.prensa.com/ http://www.prensa.com/ ) Vice President To Suggest
   Reviewing Bill Approval Process --

   Panama City La Prensa reports on statements by Vice President Varela, who
   said that the government must evaluate the submission and approval of laws
   that include several regulations on various subjects. Varela said that
   this lesson was learned with Law 30, adding that the procedure has to be
   reassessed in those cases where citizens believe the matter needs to be
   discussed further. In fact, Law 30 was approved by the executive branch on
   26 May, but it was not until 13 days l ater that it was submitted to the
   National Assembly and citizens learned of it. Varela said that this will
   be one of the topics he will discuss today with President Ricardo
   Martinelli and Presidency Minister Demetrio Papadimitriu, along with the
   Foreign Ministry's legal team. Politics, Wiretaps, Dismissals, and Arrests
   --

   Panama City La Estrella carries an opinion piece by political analyst
   Mario Rognoni on the country's lack of political maturity. Rognoni says
   presidents still feel the need to manipulate and control key government
   positions as soon as they take office, and Martinelli has been no
   exception. While he promised to "rule with the best," it seems this did
   not include officials who had been appointed by the previous
   administration. Rognoni suggests that as long as we have politicians who
   are unable to accept the continuity of government officials, it would be
   better for each incoming president to have full control of all these
   positions. It would thus solve the problem of the current government
   wasting time and effort in attempting to dismiss these officials. One year
   after Martinelli took office, there are only two people left for him to
   change: the solicitor general and the ombudsman. The former is currently
   "seeing the writing on the wall," while nobody seems to care much for the
   latter. Furthermore, says Rognoni, while every government has reiterated
   its commitment to fight against corruption, this fight has been anything
   but objective and fair. Rognoni mentions several cases against
   high-profile figures in which justice has been "selective and
   discriminatory." He says that Panama still has not learned the meaning of
   having conflicts of interests, of being impartial. He concludes by saying
   that we will not see the change promised by Martinelli in the area of
   corruption, as Panamanians have become afraid of denouncing the current
   government's crimes. (Panama City La Estrella Online in Spanish - -
   Privately owned independent-centrist dai ly; URL:

   http://www.laestrella.com.pa/ http://www.laestrella.com.pa ) Former
   President Torrijos Involved in Two Scandals --

   Panama City La Estrella reports that former President Martin Torrijos is
   currently "in the eye of the storm" due to being associated with two
   corruption scandals. One refers to the statements by former deputies
   Manuel De La Hoz and Carlos Afu on Torrijos's involvement in the bribery
   to approve the Multimodal, Industrial and Services Center (Cemis) in 2001.
   De La Hoz and Afu said that Torrijos, acting as the PRD's secretary
   general (the PRD had control of the National Assembly in 2001), had
   coordinated the payment of $20,000 to the opposition deputies in exchange
   for their vote to approve the project. Meanwhile, Torrijos has been
   mentioned in the recent scandal over the use of wiretaps at the Solicitor
   General's Office. Solicitor General Oscar Ceville said that his former
   security head Jo rge Abrego had attempted to blackmail him, and that
   Torrijos had taken the case to the Security Council. Neftali Jaen,
   assistant to Acting Attorney General Giuseppe Bonissi, said that Torrijos
   could be summoned to make statements on the matter. While Bonissi has said
   that his office is still gathering evidence, La Estrella learned that the
   Foreign Ministry has been asked to provide information on Torrijos's
   immunity. The former president is a member of the Central American
   Parliament (Parlacen), and Panama is currently in the process of
   withdrawing from this organization. Torrijos has not made any statements,
   and his fellow party members insist this is all "political persecution."
   Economic News Martinelli Meets US Representatives To Discuss Trade Issues
   --

   Panama City Presidency of the Republic of Panama reports that President
   Martinelli met on Monday, 9 August, with members of the US Congress to
   discuss issues related to security and trade. Also present wer e
   Panamanian Ambassador to the US Jaime Aleman and Vice President Varela.
   The US representatives reiterated their support for the signing of the
   US-Panama Free Trade Agreement (FTA), and expressed satisfaction at the
   stable trade relations between both countries. Government's Frenzy For
   Investments Raises Concern Over Execution --

   Panama City La Prensa on its "As of Today" editorial column comments on
   the hectic rhythm with which the government is implementing its plans for
   state investments, in contrast with the poor execution of the state
   budget. This frenzy stirs concern about the government's capacity for
   executing the budget, for controlling so much money -- especially when the
   comptroller general is a former employee of the president -- the country's
   capacity for debt, and many other concerns. The editorial calls for an
   explanation on these matters. New Hospital Compound To Solve Medical Needs
   'For Next 100 Years' --

   Panama City La Prensa repor ts on statements by Guillermo Saez-Llorens,
   director of the Social Security Fund (CSS), on the plans for building a
   new hospital compound. Saez explained that the current CSS facilities --
   built in 1962 -- were planned for satisfying the needs of 1.5 million
   inhabitants, and today's population is almost double that amount. The new
   facilities will occupy 10 times the area of the current compound, and will
   be built on land that was formerly used by the US Army. Saez said that
   these new facilities will satisfy medical care needs for the next 100
   years. The project's cost has been estimated at $450 million, and should
   be completed in three years. "I want to inaugurate this," said President
   Martinelli, who announced that the new compound will be located close to
   the new city market and the PN headquarters. State Deficit Reduced by $284
   Million, Expenditures Still Higher --

   Panama City Panama America reports that in spite of the government having
   obtained more inc ome through the recent fiscal reforms, expenditures are
   still slightly higher. According to a report by the Ministry of Economy
   and Finance (MEF), compared to the deficit of $409.8 million (1.7% of the
   GDP) during the first six months of 2009, this item improved to $125.8
   million this year. This means that the country's finances improved by $284
   million. The report states that direct tax collection rose 7.3% or $790
   million during the same time period, in contrast to $736 million in 2009.
   Regarding current expenditures, the item that increased the most was that
   of transfers, with 27.9% or $118 million. MEF Minister Alberto Vallarino
   explained this was due to the "100 For 70" pension plan as well as
   compensations paid to former state employees. On the other hand, regarding
   capital expenditures, the report states that due to the current 57% budget
   execution rate this item was reduced by 15.5%. However, Vallarino said
   that this item might increase at the end of the ye ar due to collection of
   Panama Canal income and other contributions. (Panama City Panama America
   Online in Spanish -- Right-of-center, business-oriented daily owned by
   Grupo Editorial Epasa Publishing House. URL:

   http://www.pa-digital.com.pa/ http://www.pa-digital.com.pa/ )

   The following media were scanned and no file-worthy items were noted:

   Panama City Ministry of Foreign Relations Online in Spanish, Panama City
   Martes Financiero Online in Spanish, Panama City Capital Financiero

   Attachments:Panama--Political--General--sm.jpg

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   131) Back to Top
   President Martinelli Talks Security, Trade With US Congressmen
   Unattributed article: "Martinelli Talks Security and Trade With US
   Congressmen" - prensa.com
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 18:35:39 GMT
   According to this press release, Martinelli and the Congressmen also
   reaffirmed that the US and Panama continue to enjoy good bilateral
   relations.

   Also present at this meeting, which was held at the Presidency of the
   Republic, were Vice-President and Foreign Minister of Panama, Juan Carlos
   Varela, and the Ambassador of Panama in the US, Jaime Aleman.

   The US official reiterated their support for the signing of the trade
   promotion agreement (TPC) pending between both countries.

   During an official visit to Colombia this past Saturday, 7 August,
   Martinelli met with several US congressmen, who promised that the TPC will
   be ready to debate following the upcoming elections in that country,
   slated for November.

   (Description of Source: Panam a City prensa.com in English -- Online
   version of most widely circulated daily, pro business; URL
   http://www.prensa.com)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
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   Commerce.

   132) Back to Top
   Slovakia To 'Evaluate' US Decision To Impose Fee on Travellers From EU
   "Slovakia to Evaluate Charges for People Travelling to U.S.A." -- TASR
   headline - TASR
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 14:59:36 GMT
   (Description of Source: Bratislava TASR in English -- official Slovak news
   agency; partially funded by the state)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
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   Commerce.

   133) Back to Top
   The First Phase Of The Vigilant Eagle Exercise Completed - ITAR-TASS
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 04:22:16 GMT
   intervention)

   KHABAROVSK, August 11 (Itar-Tass) - Russian and U.S. fighter jets,
   refueling aircraft and civilian air traffic control services are taking
   part in the first ever Russia-U.S anti-terror exercise, nicknamed the
   Vigilant Eagle.One of the headquarters of the exercise is located in
   Khabarovsk; the other is at the Elmendorf Air Force Base in the U.S. State
   of Alaska."Representatives of the military agencies of both countries will
   give a press conference late on Wednesday. They will sum up the
   preliminary results of the ex ercises and answer journalists' questions,"
   a source at the Far Eastern air force and air defense formation told
   Itar-Tass. He said that the final phase of the first stage of exercises
   was under way. Maneuvers over the northern part of the Pacific involve
   NATO fighter jets, Russian A-50 reconnaissance planes, American AWACS
   aircraft and refueling aircraft from both countries.According to the
   scenario, cooperative actions of combat units dealing with acts of
   terrorism were simulated. Notional terrorists hijacked a plane with 10
   passengers onboard. It took off from an airport in the United States, cut
   off all radio contacts with the ground and demanded that the plane land in
   the Far East. The pilots managed to send a signal to the ground that
   terrorists had hi-jacked the plane.The F-22 Raptor fighter jets took off
   to detect it. Then, the monitoring of the hi-jacked aircraft was handed
   over to Russian MiG and Su-27 planes.The event is authorized under a
   cooperative militar y agreement between the Russian and US
   presidents.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main
   government information agency)

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   134) Back to Top
   HK Column: Difficult To Be Optimistic About Prospect of Sino-US Ties
   To request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735; or email: oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov - Ching
   Chi Jih Pao
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 02:21:43 GMT
   (Description of Source: Hong Kong Ching Chi Jih Pao in Chinese -- "Hong
   Kong Economic Times," non-PRC-owned economic daily with good s ources in
   the PRC and a slightly pro-Beijing editorial line)Attachments:ccjp0811.pdf

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   Commerce.

   135) Back to Top
   About 100 U - ITAR-TASS
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 00:59:54 GMT
   intervention)

   WASHINGTON, August 11 (Itar-Tass) - The U.S. State Department has allowed
   the technical staff of the U.S. embassy in Moscow and the families of
   diplomats to leave the Russian capital for a period of 30 days because of
   the unfavourable environmental situation in the city.According to the
   State Department spokesperson Philip Crawley, approximately 100 people
   will be able to leave Moscow if they wish. He added that experts from the
   U.S. International Development Agency division responsible for rendering
   assistance to foreign countries hit by natural disasters continue staying
   in Moscow for consultations with the Russian government.In the meantime,
   the U.S. embassy in Moscow has allocated 50,000 dollars from its emergency
   fund for relief aid to the fire victims.(Description of Source: Moscow
   ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   136) Back to Top
   Police Release US Journalist 'Arrested' for Trespassing Gold Mine
   Report by Mugini Jacob: "American Journalist Set Free" - Daily News Online
   &lt; br&gt;
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 10:30:30 GMT
   (Description of Source: Dar es Salaam Daily News Online in English --
   Website of the state-owned daily; URL: http://dailynews.co.tz)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   137) Back to Top
   US Offers Condolences Over Deadly Flooding, Mudslides in China
   Xinhua: "U.S. Offers Condolences Over Deadly Flooding, Mudslides in China"
   - Xinhua
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 01:10:59 GMT
   (Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news
   service for English-l anguage audiences (New China News Agency))

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   138) Back to Top
   USA gives 4.8m dollars for famine relief in northeastern Uganda - Daily
   Monitor online
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 08:01:08 GMT
   Text of report by Evelyn Lirri "US gives Shs10b in relief food to
   Karamoja" published by leading privately-owned Ugandan newspaper The Daily
   Monitor website on 10 AugustThe US government has offered 4.8m dollars
   (about 10bn shillings) to buy relief food for people in Karamoja
   sub-region. The money is being delivered to the UN World Food Programme
   and will be used to buy food for people threatened by hunger in Kotido,
   Kaabong, Moroto, Nakapiripirit and Abim districts (all in northeastern
   Uganda).The UN food agency said prolonged drought and failed crop harvest
   for three successive years has left thousands of people vulnerable to
   hunger and starvation. Almost three-quarters of Karamoja's close to a
   million pastoralist population rely largely on food aid from the WFP."The
   donation is in response to poor harvests in the region in the past three
   consecutive years due to the erratic rainfall. With the return of rains to
   Karamoja this year, we are optimistic about the upcoming harvest," said Mr
   David Eckerson, the USAID mission director in Uganda."We, however, have
   serious concerns that the nutritional status of the most vulnerable people
   in Karamoja will deteriorate before the harvest. Therefore, an immediate
   response is critical to prevent the population from resorting to
   destructive coping mechanisms."According to a WFP ass essment conducted in
   December 2009, about 22 per cent of households in Karamoja did not
   cultivate any food crops in 2009 and of the 78 per cent that did, over 70
   per cent of them did not harvest substantial amounts.This has resulted
   into high malnutrition rates especially among children with acute
   malnutrition in the region estimated to be bordering emergency levels.The
   WHO said cases of malnutrition usually occur when children don't have
   enough food with all the required nutrients to eat.(Description of Source:
   Kampala Daily Monitor online in English -- Website of the independent
   daily owned by the Kenya-based Nation Media Group; URL:
   http://www.monitor.co.ug)

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   Commerce.

   139) Back to Top
   Uzbekistan, Oman to Set Up JV For $250 Mln Cement Plant By Year-end -
   Interfax
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 09:51:58 GMT
   TASHKENT. Aug 10 (Interfax) - Uzbek national holding company
   Uzbekneftegas, the joint-stock company Uzstroimaterialy, and Oman
   Investment Fund plan to set up a joint venture by year-end for the
   building of a cement factory in the Surkhandarya region costing $250
   million, an Uzstroimaterialy management source told Interfax."Before the
   end of August, Oman Investment Fund is to name a company that will be the
   joint venture's cofounder from Oman," the source said. An
   intergovernmental agreement between the two countries concerning the main
   principles for the JV's creation was signed in March, he said, and, "The
   main package of founding documents is ready, and we are close to the joint
   venture's creation."The cement factory's a ctual construction is now
   figured to begin in 2011 and end in 2014. Projected capacity will be 1.7
   million tonnes per year of special types, including well cement for the
   oil and gas sector.Project financing will come from Oman Investment Fund
   credit resources and the Uzbek companies' own monies.Plans call for
   another two cement plants to be built in Uzbekistan aside from this one:
   one in the Dzhizak region (2 million tonnes per year) and another in the
   Kashkadarya region (1.5 million tonnes). And in 2009, the Uzbek-U.S. joint
   venture Rakhnamo-Nur began building a $103.2 million cement factory (1
   million tonnes) in the Karakalpak region.Uzbekistan has six operating
   cement factories with combined established production capacity of 6.5
   million tonnes, the biggest of which are OJSC Kyzylkumtsement (3.08
   million tonnes), OJSC Akhangarantsement (1.74 million tonnes), and OJSC
   Kubasaitsement (920,000 tonnes).Cf(Our editorial staff can be reached at
   eng.editors@interfax.ru)Interfax -950140-JPHZCBAA

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   140) Back to Top
   Qinghua University Scholar Says US Security Concept Not Sustainable
   Article by Zhang Liang and Han Chengzhen: "Expert: US Security Model
   Unscientific; Sustainable Security Belief Should Be Promoted" - Zhongguo
   Xinwen She
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 17:12:23 GMT
   Liu Jiangyong maintained: to have genuine and sustainable peace it wants,
   the world must imbue in countries the sustainable security belief; be
   people-centered; and underscore the unity between national survival,
   security environment and ecological environment.

   He pointed out: after the Second World War, security beliefs such as
   "comprehensive strategy for safeguarding security," "common security," and
   the "fully accommodating security concept" have appeared. However, owing
   to insufficient theories and practices of these beliefs, many countries
   have come up with the ideas, measures and money for achieving unilateral
   security; but these things have in fact created new insecurity, worsened
   the security environment, and produced a totally different result, namely
   "security dissimilation" (an quan yi hua).

   Citing the United States' strategy for national security, Prof Liu
   Jiangyong pointed out: the US security model is very unscientific. Because
   of this model, which it wants to use to maintain hegemony, the United
   States has to pay excessively high costs for security; but US citizens'
   security environment has worsened and the people's sense of security has
   lowered. The impacts on t he climate change created by the enormous energy
   consumption and the carbon emissions of the mammoth systems that produce
   nuclear and conventional weapons and the incessant external wars are
   absolutely not any less than the impacts created by the United States'
   industrialization process.

   Liu Jiangyong, the first Chinese scholar who promotes and studies the
   "sustainable security" theory, pointed out: the "sustainable security"
   belief is a belief that inherits and develops the new Chinese and foreign
   concepts of security. "Sustainable security" refers to the objective state
   where peace and security can be sustained for a long time in nations,
   regions and even the world at large. The objective it is after is
   sustainability of high security at low costs and to prevent any threat
   from disrupting this state of security.

   He elaborated: to achieve "sustainable security," sovereign nations must
   not settle their disputes by means o f war, especially by using nuclear
   weapons or other weapons of mass destruction. Sustainable security is
   against nuclear proliferation and arms race. And a nation must not
   exchange its security or the security of a bloc of nations at the expense
   of the economy and ecology.

   Liu Jiangyong pointed out: the presentation of the "sustainable security"
   concept indicates that the study of security concepts has entered a new
   stage. The theory of sustainable security, once it has been established,
   will have important significance for guiding nations' security models and
   decisions.

   (Description of Source: Beijing Zhongguo Xinwen She in Chinese -- China's
   official news service for overseas Chinese)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   141) Back to Top
   Deputy PM Proposes Levying Duties on Russia's Imports of GPS Navigators -
   Interfax
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 17:52:19 GMT
   RYAZAN. Aug 10 (Interfax) - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov on
   Tuesday proposed that Russia levy duties on imports of navigators linked
   to the U.S.'s Global Positioning System (GPS) effective from January 1,
   2011."The time has come to consider levying, not prohibitive duties but at
   least some kind of import duty on GPS navigation equipment, which is still
   imported into Russia at zero duty," Ivanov told a conference in Ryazan."We
   have been working on such proposals, and I believe that this can be done
   as of January 1," he said.He also backed plans for all motor vehicles
   manufactured in Russia to be fitted with Russian-made navigators.Deputy
   Prime Minister Ser gei Sobyanin supported a proposal for a law to
   prescribe that all motor vehicles that governmental bodies at all levels
   buy with state money be fitted with navigators linked to Russia's Global
   Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS).He said it was feasible to bring out
   such a law before the end of 2010.as ap(Our editorial staff can be reached
   at eng.editors@interfax.ru)Interfax-950040-AITZCBAA

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   142) Back to Top
   Govt Drafting Concept Of New Glonass Program - Putin - 2 - ITAR-TASS
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 17:41:08 GMT
   intervention)

   RYAZAN, August 10 (Itar-Tas s) -- The government is drafting the concept
   of a new federal Glonass program for the period until 2020, Prime Minister
   Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday.The new program will target for the use of
   the Glonass system, and the government pins hopes on active participation
   of regions in that process, Putin said."A large number of vehicles and
   other technical means will be equipped with navigation systems starting
   from 2011. This is a part of new technical regulations, which will apply
   to water and high-speed railroad transport," he said.Meanwhile, the use of
   Russian navigation systems in vehicles does not exceed 10%. "We need to
   boost this use," he remarked."We have launched two social projects related
   to Glonass. There is the 112 number for calling rescuers, doctors and
   police. We have also started to form the ERA-Glonass system providing
   rapid response in case of traffic accidents. Both systems will drastically
   cut the time of the arrival of emergency se rvices," he said.All the new
   vehicles sold in Russia from 2012 should be linked to the Glonass system,
   Putin said."In my opinion, all the vehicles sold from 2012 should be
   equipped with Glonass gadgets and linked to the ERA-Glonass rapid response
   system," he said. The system will be deployed across the country by 2014,
   he said.Some 60 billion rubles have been invested in the Glonass space
   navigation project, but all the major expenditures have been covered and
   the project is successful, Putin said.The Glonass network will soon
   enlarge, and the coverage will become global, he said. "Now we must make
   this system efficient and profitable," Putin said.About 48 billion rubles
   will be invested in the Glonass space and land infrastructure in
   2010-2011, he said."We plan to launch another six .125Glonass.375
   satellites before the end of this year, and no less than 24-28 satellites
   will permanently stay in orbit after that," he said.Test flights of n
   ew-generation Glonass-K satellites will begin this December.Deputy Prime
   Minister Sergei Ivanov has called for levying import duties on GPS systems
   in Russia starting from January 1, 2011."Time has come for some import
   duties on GPS gadgets, which are being taken to Russia at nil rates," he
   said at the Tuesday conference on the development of the Glonass space
   navigation system chaired by Putin.The import duty must not be
   prohibitive, Ivanov stressed. "We have discussed this proposal, and I
   think the duty may be levied from January 1, 2011," he said.It is also
   quite possible to order the mandatory equipment of vehicles manufactured
   in Russia with the domestic navigation systems, he said.The duty may reach
   25%, Ivanov noted after the meeting. He also said that the compulsory
   equipment of all vehicles with Glonass navigation would apply to
   state-owned transport. "We cannot force individuals to install Glonass
   navigators in their cars. It is the questio n of state-owned vehicles
   only," he said.Head of the government office, Deputy Prime Minister Sergei
   Sobyanin supported the proposal to equip all vehicles purchased with
   budget money with Glonass navigators. "It is possible to pass this law
   during the autumnal session," he said.Glonass is a radio-based satellite
   navigation system, developed by the former Soviet Union and now operated
   by the Russian Space Forces. It is an alternative and complementary to the
   United States' Global Positioning System (GPS) and the planned Galileo
   positioning system of the European Union (EU).Development on Glonass began
   in 1976, with a goal of global coverage by 1991. Beginning on 12 October
   1982, numerous rocket launches added satellites to the system until the
   constellation was completed in 1995. Economic problems suspended the
   project, and Russia committed to restore the system in 2001.On May 18,
   2007, then Russian president Vladimir Putin signed a decree officially
   providing open access to the civilian navigation signals of the Glonass
   system, to Russian and foreign consumers, free of charge and without
   limitations. The Russian president also directed the Federal Space Agency
   to coordinating work to maintain, develop and enable the system for
   civilian and commercial needs.Glonass was developed to provide real-time
   position and velocity determination, initially for use by the Soviet
   military for navigation and ballistic missile targeting. It was the Soviet
   Union's second-generation satellite navigation system, improving on the
   Tsikada system, which required one to two hours of signal processing to
   calculate a location with high accuracy. By contrast, once a Glonass
   receiver is tracking the satellite signals, a position fix is available
   instantly.A fully operational Glonass constellation consists of 24
   satellites, with 21 used for transmitting signals and three for on-orbit
   spares, deployed in three orbital planes. The three orbital planes' ascend
   ing nodes are separated by 120 .875 with each plane containing eight
   equally spaced satellites. The orbits are roughly circular, with an
   inclination of about 64.8 .875, and orbit the Earth at an altitude of
   19,100 kilometers, which yields an orbital period of approximately 11
   hours, 15 minutes. The planes themselves have a latitude displacement of
   15 .875, which results in the satellites crossing the equator one at a
   time, instead of three at once. The overall arrangement is such that, if
   the constellation is fully populated, a minimum of five satellites is in
   view from any given point at any given time.The cluster is made up of 23
   satellites, including two on standby.(Description of Source: Moscow
   ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commer ce.

   143) Back to Top
   All Vehicles Sold In Russia From 2012 Should Be Linked To Glonass - Putin
   - ITAR-TASS
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 16:41:39 GMT
   intervention)

   RYAZAN, August 10 (Itar-Tass) -- All the new vehicles sold in Russia from
   2012 should be linked to the Glonass system, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin
   said on Tuesday."In my opinion, all the vehicles sold from 2012 should be
   equipped with Glonass gadgets and linked to the ERA-Glonass rapid response
   system," he said. The system will be deployed across the country by 2014,
   he said.Glonass is a radio-based satellite navigation system, developed by
   the former Soviet Union and now operated by the Russian Space Forces. It
   is an alternative and complementary to the United States' Global
   Positioning System (GPS) and th e planned Galileo positioning system of
   the European Union (EU).Development on Glonass began in 1976, with a goal
   of global coverage by 1991. Beginning on 12 October 1982, numerous rocket
   launches added satellites to the system until the constellation was
   completed in 1995. Economic problems suspended the project, and Russia
   committed to restore the system in 2001.On May 18, 2007, then Russian
   president Vladimir Putin signed a decree officially providing open access
   to the civilian navigation signals of the Glonass system, to Russian and
   foreign consumers, free of charge and without limitations. The Russian
   president also directed the Federal Space Agency to coordinating work to
   maintain, develop and enable the system for civilian and commercial
   needs.Glonass was developed to provide real-time position and velocity
   determination, initially for use by the Soviet military for navigation and
   ballistic missile targeting. It was the Soviet Union's second-generation
   satellite navi gation system, improving on the Tsikada system, which
   required one to two hours of signal processing to calculate a location
   with high accuracy. By contrast, once a Glonass receiver is tracking the
   satellite signals, a position fix is available instantly.A fully
   operational Glonass constellation consists of 24 satellites, with 21 used
   for transmitting signals and three for on-orbit spares, deployed in three
   orbital planes. The three orbital planes' ascending nodes are separated by
   120 .875 with each plane containing eight equally spaced satellites. The
   orbits are roughly circular, with an inclination of about 64.8 .875, and
   orbit the Earth at an altitude of 19,100 kilometers, which yields an
   orbital period of approximately 11 hours, 15 minutes. The planes
   themselves have a latitude displacement of 15 .875, which results in the
   satellites crossing the equator one at a time, instead of three at once.
   The overall arrangement is such that, if the constellation is fully
   populated , a minimum of five satellites is in view from any given point
   at any given time.The cluster is made up of 23 satellites, including two
   on standby.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main
   government information agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   144) Back to Top
   Russian Equities Slip on Tues Following Weak U.S. Stats - Interfax
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 15:31:58 GMT
   MOSCOW. Aug 10 (Interfax) - The Russian stock market declined on Tuesday
   to levels posted at the end of July following a decrease on world markets
   and oil prices owing to weak U.S. stats and doubts that a me eting of the
   U.S. Federal Reserve will announce new measures for mitigating measures
   for supporting the economy.Benchmark stocks on the MICEX went down by
   1.52% to 1,397.66 points while the RTS Index decreased by 1.82% to 1,492.9
   points.Futures on the RTS Index dropped by 13 points against the base
   asset indicating a generally negative mood among investors.Decliners for
   the day on the MICEX were VTB (RTS: VTBR), down 1.4%, Gazprom (RTS: GAZP)
   - 1.8%, Gazprom Neft (RTS: SIBN) - 2.9%, MMC Norilsk Nickel (RTS: GMKN) -
   0.6%, Lukoil (RTS: LKOH) - 1.8%, Polyus Gold (RTS: PLZL) - 0.9%, Rosneft
   (RTS: ROSN) - 2%, Sberbank (RTS: SBER) - 1.1% on common shares and 3.3% on
   prefs, Surgutneftegas (RTS: SNGS) - 2.3% and Tatneft (RTS: TATN) -
   1.1%.Posting losses on the MICEX Stock Exchange were Novolipetsk
   Metallurgical Combine (NLMK), down 4.8%, Transneft (RTS: TRNF) - 3.7%,
   Belon - 3%, Severstal (RTS: CHMF) - 2.8% and TGK-2 (RTS: TGKB) -
   2.5%.Posting gains were Seventh Continent (RTS: SCON ), up 1.6%, Acorn
   (RTS: AKRN) - 0.8%, Diod - 0.3% and North-West Telecom (RTS: SPTL) -
   0.2%.Total Classic Trading on the RTS Index for the day came to $5.92
   million, RTS Standard - $390.98 million and MICEX Stock Exchange
   transactions - over 38.11 billion rubles.Ih(Our editorial staff can be
   reached at eng.editors@interfax.ru)Interfax-950140-NMSZCBAA

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   145) Back to Top
   Dollar Moves Up on MICEX, Euro Slides - Interfax
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 14:26:07 GMT
   MOSCOW. Aug 10 (Interfax) - The U.S. dollar went up noticeably on Tuesday
   while the euro slid on the MICEX fol lowing its trajectory on the forex
   and declining oil prices. The Russian ruble declined against the Central
   Bank's bi-currency basket.The dollar went up by 14 kopecks to close at
   30.05 rubles/$1 while the euro dropped by 16.73 kopecks to finish at
   39.477 rubles.The bi-currency basket (set at $0.55 and 0.45 euro) went up
   by 12 kopecks to 34.29 rubles.The dollar's average weighted exchange rate
   on the MICEX increased by 18.08 kopecks to 30.0114 rubles/$1 in Today
   deals on Tuesday and 15.82 kopecks to 30.0192 rubles/$1 in Tomorrow deals.
   Total dollar trading on the MICEX amounted to $4.579 billion with $743.7
   million in Today deals and $2.835 billion in Tomorrow deals.The average
   weighted rate of the euro went down by 8.67 kopecks to 39.65237rubles/EUR1
   rubles in Today deals and 13.4 kopecks to 39.5016 rubles/EUR1 in Tomorrow
   deals. Total euro trading came to 401.5 million euro, of which 91.5
   million euro were Today deals and 310 million euro were Tomorrow deals.The
   overnight M osPrime Rate remained unchanged at 2.73%.Ih(Our editorial
   staff can be reached at eng.editors@interfax.ru)Interfax-950140-TSRZCBAA

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   146) Back to Top
   NASA Plans Second Spacewalk For Mending ISS Cooling System - ITAR-TASS
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 12:16:17 GMT
   intervention)

   NEW YORK, August 10 (Itar-Tass) - NASA specialists on Monday continued the
   preparation of plans for the organisation of the second spacewalk of the
   International Space Station's (ISS) astronauts for removing a malfunction
   in the ISS cooling system, representatives of the American space ag ency
   said on Monday that this spacewalk is scheduled for August 11.The first
   spacewalk that was performed by American astronauts Douglas Wheelock and
   Tracey Caldwell Dyson for the repair of a broken down pump that supplies
   liquid ammonia to a circuit of the station's cooling system, was
   unsuccessful. Their task was to disconnect 6 cables and 4 ammonia pipes
   after which they needed to hook up the pipes to a special connector that
   will prevent pressure rise in the broken circuit of the cooling
   system.However, they faced a problem with disconnecting an ammonia pipe
   because the fixation was too hard to unfasten. Wheelock had to work on
   this fixation for several hours until he succeeded. Besides, during the
   work with the pipes the astronauts had a minor ammonia leak, which also
   affected the time of the spacewalk.If the operation to dismantle the
   broken pump on August 11 is successful then the ISS crewmembers will have
   another spacewalk on August 15 during which they will install a reserve
   pump and restore the station's normal research activity that was suspended
   in order to avoid excessive heating of the equipment.According to NASA, in
   the wake of an eight-hour, three-minute spacewalk Saturday that fell short
   of removing the failed pump module due to a leak in the fourth of four
   ammonia line connectors hooked up to the old pump, mission operations and
   station programme officials laid out a series of procedures for Wheelock
   and Caldwell Dyson to perform at the beginning of the second spacewalk
   Wednesday designed to greatly reduce, or eliminate the possibility of
   ammonia leaking from the final fluid connector - called M3 - when it is
   demated to set the stage for the failed pump to be removed from the
   truss.The plan would call for Wheelock and Caldwell Dyson to close other
   quick disconnect lines where the S1 and S0 trusses meet that will isolate
   ammonia upstream in the system from the final connector, preventing any
   recurrence of leakage while the new pump module is being installed.
   Additional work to configure lines and valves would be conducted by the
   spacewalkers prior to the final electrical demating of the old pump so it
   can be parked on a stowage bracket on the station's Mobile Base System.The
   goal Wednesday will be to remove the old pump and stow it on a payload
   attachment bracket on the Mobile Base System on the station's truss while
   preparing the replacement pump for its removal from a stowage platform
   adjacent to the Quest airlock and its installation on the truss during a
   third spacewalk targeted for no earlier than next Sunday.NASA said that
   the Russian cosmonauts - ISS Commander Alexander Skvortsov and crewmembers
   Mikhail Korniyenko and Fyodor Yurchikhin are not directly involved in the
   repair operations, because the American space agency is responsible for
   the repairs.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main
   government information agency)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   147) Back to Top
   Foreign Consular Services Keep Working Despite Heat Wave - Interfax
   Tuesday August 10, 2010 11:42:48 GMT
   MOSCOW. Aug 10 (Interfax) - The Russian Foreign Ministry has received
   official notification of the suspension of visas being issued as a result
   of the current heat wave from the U.S. Consular Service."We have been
   informed that the U.S. embassy on August 9 suspended holding interviews
   (by one day) on B1/B2 non-immigration visas. The suspension does not apply
   to other categories of citizens," sources in the Russian Foreign Ministry
   told Interfax.The Italian Embassy said disruptions were likely, the source
   said."The Italian Embassy's consular service has not suspended work thus
   far, but warned that it will have to if the situation does not change,"
   they said, adding that the consular services of other embassies have made
   adjustments in their schedulessd mj(Our editorial staff can be reached at
   eng.editors@interfax.ru)Interfax-950040-CSPZCBAA

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.
</description>
    <date>2010-08-11 12:30:06</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-16 00:00:00</releasedate>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>664089</id>
    <title>US/INDIA- 135 Americans affected by flash floods in Leh: US
</title>
    <description>135 Americans affected by flash floods in Leh: US 
http://www.ptinews.com/news/865252_135-Americans-affected-by-flash-floods-in-Leh--US-

Washington, Aug 12 (PTI) The United States has said that 135 American nationals have been affected by the flash floods in Leh, although no deaths have been reported so far in the disaster which struck the region last Friday.

"I think we're aware right now of about 135 US citizens affected by the floods. We have no reports of deaths or injuries," State Department spokesman P J Crowley said.

"As of yesterday, I think there were still a handful of American citizens that we had not yet had contact with, so I would assume at this point that we have not accounted for everybody, but at this point we're not aware of anybody that has been killed or injured," Crowley said.

The official had yesterday said about 100 US nationals have been affected by the flash floods in Leh.
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 09:00:00</releasedate>
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  <doc>
    <id>665593</id>
    <title>USA/UNITED STATES/AMERICAS
</title>
    <description>   Table of Contents for United States

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   1) UK Arabic Press 11 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from the UK Arabic Press on 11 Aug 10.
   To request additional processing, contact the OSC Customer Center at (800)
   205-8615 or OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   2) Chicago Soybean Extends Losses Amid Bearish Markets
   Xinhua: "Chicago Soybean Extends Losses Amid Bearish Markets"
   3) Xinhua 'News Analysis' on Likelihood of Direct Pelestinian-Israeli
   Talks
   News analysis by Xinhua reporters Li Laifang, Feng Kang and Zhu Junqing:
   Can the Arab League Meeting Help Bring About Direct Palestinian-Israeli
   Talks?
   4) Georgia Opposes Russia's Decision To Deploy Air Defence Systems In
   Abkhazia
   5) 11 August 2010
   For a copy of the video, contact GSG_GVP_VideoOps@rccb.osis.gov or the OSC
   Customer Center at (800) 205-8615. Selected video also avail able at
   OpenSource.gov
   6) Result of Georgia War -- Strategic Gain For Russia in World Politics
   Article by Fedor Lukyanov: "Turmoil After Revenge" (GZT.ru Online)
   7) Burjanadze to Write to Mccain About Brutal Treatment of Demonstrators
   in Georgia
   8) Urdu Press Roundup Discusses Government's Reponse to Flood Emergency
   9) Contacts Involving France, US, Others Prevent Israeli Action Against
   Lebanon
   Report from Paris, Washington, Tel Aviv, and Beirut by Michel Abu-Nijm,
   Mina al-Uraybi, Nazir Mujalli, and Paula Istayh respectively: "French
   Sources Say Western and Arab Capitals Prevented an Israeli Strike Against
   the Lebanese Army. The Sources Told Al-Sharq al-Awsat Baraq Informed
   Kouchner of the Intention to Revenge. There Is a Split Over Nasrallah's
   'Circumstantial Evidences'. Iran Offers to Compensate Beirut for the US
   Weapons"
   10) Clinton Discusses Iranian Nuclear Program With Davutoglu
   "Clinton Discusses Iranian Nuclear Program With Davutoglu" -- KUNA
   Headline
   11) American War Spending Enters the Era of Wikileaks
   "American War Spending Enters the Era of Wikileaks" -- The Daily Star
   Headline
   12) Yeni Ozgur Politika Headlines 5 August 2010
   The following is a list of news headlines from the Yeni Ozgur Politika
   website on 5 August; to request additional processing, please contact OSC
   at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735, fax (703) 613-5735, or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov
   13) Al-Hayah Commentary Urges Riyadh Set Conditions Before Agreeing Better
   Iran Ties
   Commentary by Saudi writer Abdallah Nasir al-Utaybi: "Ali Larijani Becomes
   Pragmatist"
   14) Iraqi Kurdish Arabic Press 11 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from two Baghdad-based Kurdish
   newspapers on 11 Aug. To request additional processing, please call OSC at
   (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735, or fax (703) 613-5735.
   15) Iraqi Press 11 August 10
   The following lists selected items from the Iraqi press on 11 August. To
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
   16) Israeli Arabic Press 6 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from the Israeli Arabic press on 6
   August. To request additional processing, contact the OSC Customer Center
   at (800) 205-8615 or OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   17) Turkish Press 11 August 2010
   The following lists selected items from the Turkish press on 11 August; to
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735, or fax (703) 613-5735. For Islamist press highlights, see
   GMP20100811006001
   18) Article Says WikiLeak Exposes Designs of Foreign Forces in Afghanistan
   Article by Asif Haroon Raja: WikiLeak expos es US-NATO atrocities
   19) Writer Says Turkey Entitled To Defend Citizens Until PKK Lays Down
   Arms
   Commentary by Yusuf Kanli: "Prerequisite"
   20) Brazil Economic Issues 10-11 Aug 10
   21) Argentina Political and Economic Issues 11 Aug 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   22) Foreign Minister Wants Washington, Unasur To Dialog Directly
   Report by US correspondent Ana Baron from Washington: "Timerman wants a
   direct dialog between the Unasur and the United States"
   23) Bolivia Press 11 August 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   24) Xinhua 'Roundup': WHO Declares H1N1 Pandemic Over, But Virus Risk
   Remains
   Xinhua "Roundup": "WHO Declares H1N1 Pandemic Over, But Virus Risk
   Remains&amp;q uot;
   25) Palestinian Press 11 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from the Palestinian press on 11 Aug.
   To request additional processing, or for assistance with multimedia
   elements, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735; or fax (703)
   613-5735.
   26) Xinhua 'Roundup': Palestinians Receive U.S. Approval of Proposal of
   Reference for Direct Talks With Israel
   Xinhua "Roundup": "Palestinians Receive U.S. Approval of Proposal of
   Reference for Direct Talks With Israel"
   27) Bangladesh Press 11 Aug 10
   The following is a selection of highlights from Bangladesh press on 11 Aug
   10
   28) Syrian Press 11 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from the Syrian press on 11 August. To
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
   29) Israel Can Make Peace With Pa But Lots of Courage Req uired --
   Netanyahu
   "Israel Can Make Peace With Pa But Lots of Courage Required -- Netanyahu"
   -- KUNA Headline
   30) Bulgarian Envoy to Washington Discusses Meeting With President Obama
   Interview with new Bulgarian Ambassador to the United States Elena
   Poptodorova by Sonya Kanikova in Washington; time not given; broadcast by
   Deutsche Welle Radio at 0407 GMT on 11 August
   31) US Building Asian 'NATO' To Encircle China
   By Dai Xu, Air Force Colonel and a military strategist, and translated by
   Zhang Ming'ai: "U.S. building 'Asian NATO' to encircle China"
   32) NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO 119 -- NEWS IN BRIEF (3 of 6)
   Yonhap headline: "NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO 119 (August 12, 2010)"
   33) ROK Weeklies for 4-10 Aug 10
   To request additional processing, contact the OSC Customer Center at (800)
   205-8615 or e-mail EAG_Korea@rccb.osis.gov
   34) RSA Ambassador to US Presents Credentials to President Obama
   Report by Staff Reporter: "Rasool Checks In with Obama"
   35) Sensuality on TV Goes Way Too Far
   "Viewpoint" column by Kim Hyun-ki, Tokyo correspondent and Translation by
   the JoongAng Daily staff: "Sensuality on TV Goes Way Too Far"
   36) Korea Ranks High in Spending on Research
   37) Turkish Islamist Press 11 Aug
   This product lists selected items carried in the Turkish Islamist press on
   11 August. To request additional processing, contact the OSC Customer
   Center at (800) 205-8615 or OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   38) Foreign Buyers Arrive in Zimbabwe To Purchase Diamond Following
   Partial Ban Lift
   39) Twin Panda Cubs Born in Japan: China's Breeding Center
   Xinhua: "Twin Panda Cubs Born in Japan: China's Breeding Center"
   40) Okinawa Local TV Evening News 11 Aug 10
   For a copy of the video, contact GSG_GVP_VideoOps@rccb.osis.gov or the OSC
   Customer Center at (800) 205-8615. Selected video also available at
   OpenSource.gov.
   41) Xinhua 'Interview': EAC, EU Trade Pact To Benefit Kenya's
   Horticultural Sector
   Xinhua "Interview" by Daniel Ooko: "EAC, EU Trade Pact To Benefit Kenya's
   Horticultural Sector"
   42) Bladerunner 51 Boat 'Leap Forward', Concern for US
   43) People's Daily Online: Meaning Behind British PM's Diplomatic Moves
   By People's Daily Online: "Meaning behind British PM's diplomatic moves"
   44) Iranian Commentary Details WikiLeaks Disclosures Made From Classified
   Documents
   Unattributed commentary: "Revelation of 91,000 Classified Documents of US
   War in Afghanistan"
   45) Estonia To Sign Antarctic Environmental Protocol
   "Estonia To Accede to Environmental Protocol to Antarctic Treaty" -- BNS
   headline
   46) Nasrallahs Got a Surprise
   "Nasrallahs Got a Surprise" -- NOW Lebanon Headline
   47) Pakistan Press Nawa-e Waqt 11 Aug 10
   To request additional processing, contact the OSC Customer Center at (800)
   205-8615 or OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   48) China Buys More Japanese Bonds for Diversification: CASS Scholar
   To request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735; or email: oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   49) DPRK Party Organ on Japan's 'Arms Build-Up,' 'Nuclear Weaponization'
   The vernacular full text of the following Rodong Sinmun signed commentary
   has been obtained from the KPM website and is attached in PDF format; KCNA
   headline: "Japan's Arms Build-up And Nuclear Weaponization Blasted"
   50) Mexico Southeastern Crime/Narcotics/Security Issues 11 Aug 10
   51) UK-Pakistan Ties Cannot be Made Hostage To Camerons Indiscretion
   Article by Malik Muhammad Ashraf: The Regrettable Indiscretion
   52) Colombia Political-Economic Issues 10-11 Aug 10
   Corrected version: Adding dropped word in headline of last blurb
   53) Spanish troops launch new security, development projects in
   Afghanistan
   54) US Action Shows 'No Special Liking for Whistle-Blowers'
   Commentary by Chirosree Basu: A Good Man, but a Bad Soldier
   55) Leaked Secrets May Entail 'Massive' Changes in US War Policy
   Commentray by Ipsita Chakravarty: Shadow Army
   56) Editorial Urges US To Take Notice of Situation in Indian-Held Kashmir
   Editorial: World starts raising voice for Kashmiris
   57) More Than $2 Bn Foreign Aid Expected for Mindanao Peace
   Report by Edith Regalado: "More than $2-billion foreign aid seen for
   Mindanao peace"
   58) Pakistan Must Strengthen Ties With China Instead of Associating Hopes
   With West
   Article by Izhar-ul-Haq: Sino-Pak Nuclear Cooperation
   59) NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 119 -- FOREIGN TIPS (5 of 6)
   Yonhap headline: "NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 119 (August 12, 2010)"
   60) Delhi Editorial Criticizes US Senator for Remarks Against Indian IT
   Firms
   Editorial: "Cloud on American Dream"
   61) Article Says Govt in no Mood To Counter US Agenda Against Pakistan
   Article by Shireen M Mazari: Trying to reduce us to nothingness
   62) West Indian Press 11 Aug 10
   The following is a selection of highlights from the West Indian press on
   11 August 2010
   63) Xinhua 'Roundup': Canadian Stocks Tumble as Pessimism About World
   Economy Increases
   Xinhua "Roundup": "Canadian Stocks Tumble as Pessimism About World Economy
   Increases"
   64) Mexico Regional Press 11 Aug 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   65) Russian, US, Canadian air forces hold antiterrorist drill over North
   Pacific
   66) Russian, US, Canadian Air Forces Share Zones Over Pacific
   67) Taiwan Opinion 12 Aug 10
   68) Russian, U.S., Canadian Air Forces Complete Hijack Exercise
   69) Indian Media Highlights 10-11 Aug 10
   70) Ukraine To Consider Grain Exports Quotas
   71) Mugabe Leaves for 'Week-Long' Official Visit to China
   Report by Caesar Zvayi: "President Leaves for China"
   72) Russia Grain Exports Ban Not To Cause Deficit On World Mrkt-Vilsak
   73) Viktor Bout Imprisoned In Thailand Struggles For Release
   74 ) Daily urges US to ignore proposal for Afghanistan's division
   75) Xinhua 'Commentary': History, Practicality Reunite Colombia, Venezuela
   Xinhua "Commentary": "History, Practicality Reunite Colombia, Venezuela"
   76) Boeing Presumed Victor in Presidential Plane Bid
   77) Fidel Castro Warns World of US Nuclear War Threat
   KCNA headline: "Fidel Castro Warns World of U.S. Nuclear War Threat"
   78) Restored Venezuela-Colombia ties top story on Iran's Press TV
   79) Slovak Press 11 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from the Slovak press on 11 August. To
   request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735;
   or fax (703) 613-5735.
   80) NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 119 -- TOPIC OF THE WEEK (1 of 6)
   Yonhap headline: "NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 119 (August 12, 2010)"81)
   Cross-Strait News 11 August 2010
   82) NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 119 -- TOPIC OF THE WEEK (2 of 6)
   Yonhap headline: "NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 119 (August 12, 2010)"
   83) Opponents of NATO MD Early Warning Center Protest Outside Czech
   Parliament
   "Protest Meetings Staged Outside Czech Chamber of Deputies" -- Czech
   Happenings headline
   84) Hyundai Heavy to Build Giant Solar Power Plant
   85) CIA Arrests Youth Suspected of Planning To Blow up PIA Airplane
   "Swat Resident Who Threatened To Blow up Airplane Arrested"  NNI headline
   86) US To Send 'Supercarrier' to Yellow Sea for Joint Drills With ROK
   Updated version: Upgrading precedence, adjusting tags, adding ref item;
   Yonhap headline: "U.S. to Send Supercarrier to Yellow Sea For Joint Drills
   With S. Korea: Adm. Mullen" by Hwang Doo-hyong
   87) RMRB Column Urges Calmness, Restraint Over Choenan Incident
   Article by Chen Xiangyang, "Calmness and Restraint Are Required More Than
   Ever" -- from the "International Forum" column
   88) US Lawmaker Seeks Resolution For Release of ROK Fishermen Held in DPRK
   By Hwang Doo-hyong: "U.S. Lawmaker Seeks Resolution For Release of S.
   Korean Fishermen Held in N. Korea"
   89) US Lawmaker Seeks Resolution For Release of ROK Fishermen Held in DPRK
   Updated version: upgrading precedence and adding refs; By Hwang Doo-hyong:
   "U.S. Lawmaker Seeks Resolution For Release of S. Korean Fishermen Held in
   N. Korea"
   90) Yemeni Opposition TV CEO Interviewed on Al-Qa'ida, Huthists, Invasion
   of South
   Interview with Nasir al-Ja'fari, chief executive officer, CEO, of Aden
   Live Yemeni TV channel, by Iyad al-Dulaymi; place and date not given:
   "There Is No Unity Until We Call f or Separation; and the South Issue Has
   Nothing to Do With Huthists and Al-Qa'ida"
   91) Taiwan Opinion 11 Aug 10
   92) U.S. Dismisses Reports North Korea Asked For Envoy on U.S. Citizen's
   Release
   93) Tehran Commentary Argues West's Military Threat Against Iran
   'Propaganda Bluff'
   Commentary by Hasan Roshvand: "Psychological Bluff Against Iran"
   94) Article Discusses Report About Deposits of Minerals in Afghanistan
   Article by Arif Ayub: Minerals in Afghanistan
   95) Control Yuan Report Questions Legality Of 1949 Martial Laws
   By Sofia Yeh &amp;amp; Bear Lee
   96) PA Official Calls for Commitment to Quartet Statement Before Direct
   Negotiations
   Report by Ali al-Salih in London and Kifah al-Zabun in Ramallah:
   Abu-Rudaynah: We Suggested to the Americans a Commitment to the Quartet
   Statement. He told Al-Sharq al-Awsat: We are waitin g for an Israeli Reply
   Within Days
   97) Ecfa Benefits Touted At Cross-strait Economic Forum
   By Hsieh Chun-wei, Kuo Mei-lan and Y.L. Kao
   98) US Envoy to Pakistan Faces Tough Questions Regarding Afghan-Trade
   Transit Treaty
   Report by Kaswar Klasra: ATTA unacceptable in present form, traders tell
   Patterson
   99) Index Shows ROK-DPRK Unification Prospects Dim '2 Years in a Row'
   Report by Shin Hae-in: "Unification prospects dim 2 years in a row"
   100) ROK Editorial Says ROK Military Sending 'Wrong' Message to DPRK
   Editorial: "The Military Is Sending The Wrong Message to N.Korea"
   101) People's Daily Online Columnist Says Pentagon's Gunboat Policy Irks
   China
   By People's Daily Online columnist Li Hong: "Pentagon's gunboat policy"
   102) Taiwan Political Issues 10 August 2010
   103) Interna tional Security Assistant Force 'Confirms' Killing of 3 NATO
   Soldiers
   Unattributed report: "NATO Soldiers Killed in Afghanistan" Text
   disseminated as received without OSC editorial intervention
   104) Portuguese Commentary Regrets Obama's Decision To Try Guantanamo
   'Child-Soldier'
   Commentary by Sofia Lorena: "Stays in His Curriculum Vitae"
   105) Correa Touts Economic Advances in Ecuador, Warns of 'Destabilization
   Attempts'
   Unattributed report: "Correa Asks for New Majority." For assistance with
   multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   106) Next 52 Format Talks on Transdniestria to Be Held in September
   107) Korea Ranks 4th in R&amp;amp;D Investment Among OECD Nations
   108) KT to Lease Network to MVNOs
   109) Italian Press 11 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items fro m the Italian press on 11 August.
   To request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
   110) Germany Slammed for Buying Body Scanners From US Cluster Bomb
   Manufacturer
   Report by "dgs": "Dodgy Deals: Germany Slammed for 'Supporting' Cluster
   Bomb Manufacturer"
   111) U.S. Does Not Plan to Open New Military Base in Kyrgyzstan -
   Ambassador
   112) Kyrgyzstan political parties sign OSCE-supported Code of Conduct
   113) Lebanese Press 11 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from the Lebanese press on 11 August.
   To request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
   114) Former President Fox Advocates Legalization of Drugs
   Report by Horacio Jimenez: "Calderon and Fox at Odds Over Legalization of
   Drugs"
   115) US S anctions 'Hurting' ROK's Exports to Iran
   Unattributed article: "U.S. Sanctions Hurting Korea's Exports to Iran"
   116) Egyptian-Palestinian summit to be held in Cairo on 12 August
   117) Arab League waiting for US response on direct talks conditions -
   official
   118) Mexico Political Issues 11 Aug 10
   119) Cosmetics Sales Soar on 'sample Marketing'
   120) Hyundai Sonata Earns Top Rating From US Consumer Reports
   121) Pan-Arab Writer: Arguments Against Ground Zero Mosque Stinks of
   Propaganda
   Commentary by Husam Itani: "The Mosque at Ground Zero"
   122) Palestinian Press 10 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from the Palestinian press on 10 Aug.
   To request additional processing, or for assistance with multimedia
   elements, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735; or fax (703)
   613-5735.
   123) Malaysia Chinese Press 11 Aug 10
   The following lists selected reports carried in Malaysia's Chinese press
   on 11 August; to request additional processing, contact the OSC Customer
   Center at (800) 205-8615 or OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   124) Chinese Air Force in Night Drill Over West Sea
   125) Tehran Calls Countries That Support UN Security Council Sanctions
   'Losers'
   Article by Vladislav Vorobyev: "Tehran Finds 'Losers'" (Rossiyskaya Gazeta
   Online)
   126) ROK Editorial Comments on Status of ROK-US FTA
   Editorial: "Politics Behind Trade -- US could suffer big loss, going after
   small gain"
   127) Hyundai Heavy Industries To Build World's Largest Photovoltaic Plant
   Report by Jong-wook Park and Su-hyun Song: "Hyundai Heavy Ind. to Build
   World's Largest Photovoltaic Plant"
   128) Philippine Palace Ready To Resume Talks With MILF 'Without
   Preconditions'
   Report by Jam Sisante with RSJ and KBK, GMANews.TV: "Palace: No
   preconditions in resumption of talks with MILF"
   129) US Immigration Using Incoming Children To Arrest Illegal Poles
   Report by Wojciech Lorenz: "US Border Services Treat Polish Childen as
   Hostages"
   130) Afghan Police Issues July 2010
   The following OSC Summary provides a summary of monitored media coverage
   on Afghan police issues during July 2010; for assistance with multimedia
   elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   131) Hyundai Heavy Inks US$700 Mln Solar Power Plant Deal
   132) Iran's President Hails Economic Progress
   133) ROK To 'Take Time' To Decide Whether To Seek Sanctions on Iran
   Yonhap headline: "S. Korea to Take Time to Decide Whether to Seek
   Sanctions on Iran: Senior Source"
   134) Iran regional conference a move against USA, says Afghan analyst
   135) HK Column: PRC 'Kills Two Birds With One Stone' By Importing US Corns
   To request additional processing, contact the OSC Customer Center at (800)
   205-8615 or OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   136) Iran paper outlines leaders' response to US military threat
   137) Xinhua 'China Exclusive': 0 GMT, Aug. 11
   Xinhua "China Exclusive": "0 GMT, Aug. 11"
   138) Full text of Sino-US Joint Statement on Energy Security Cooperation
   Sino-US Joint Statement on Energy Security Cooperation (Full Text) --
   Xinhua headline -- from the Sino-US Strategic and Economic Dialog column
   139) US Military Needs To Reduce 'Contest Events' To Cut Spending
   "News Analysis" by Xinhua reporter Wang Fengfeng: "Cutting Defense
   Spending: Pentagon Dares Not Touch The Root Cause"
   140) China Reiterates It Remains World's Second Largest Energy User
   Xinhua: "China Reiterates It Remains World's Second Largest Energy User"
   141) NASA Astronauts Dismantle Broken Pump of ISS Cooling System.
   142) Review of Various U. S. UAVs That Are Needed by RF Ministry of
   Defense
   Article by Vladimir Shcherbakov on the new unmammed flying vehicles [UAVs]
   being developed in the United States that are of interest to the Ministry
   of Defense of Russia, particularly the hand-lauched UAVs that use hydrogen
   fuel cells in their power plants: "How the Problems of Developing
   Mini-Drones Are Being Resolved"
   143) US Senate To Vote On New START In Sep, White House Confident Of
   Ratification
   144) Russia Will Not Give Schneerson Library to American Hasids - Ministry
   145) New START Has Broader Support In Senate Than Thought -- Clinton&lt;/ a&gt;
   146) Dollar Soars Over 20 Kopecks on MICEX, Euro Declines (Part 2)
   147) PRC Religious Heads 'Denounce' US Commission's Report on China's
   Religious Freedom
   Report by reporter Wei Wu: "Our Religious Representatives Denounce the US
   Commission on International Religious Freedom for Slandering the Freedom
   of Religious Belief in Our Country"
   148) Russian Stock Exchange Declines Following Disappointing Results From
   Fed Meeting
   149) Dollar Soars Over 20 Kopecks on MICEX, Euro Declines
   150) Astronauts Begin Second Spacewalk To Repair ISS Cooling System
   151) Egyptian Press 11 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from the Egyptian press on 11 August.
   To request additional processing, contact the OSC Customer Center at (800)
   205-8615 or OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   152) US Observers Arrive At Russia's SKhK To Monit or HEU Deal

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   1) Back to Top
   UK Arabic Press 11 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from the UK Arabic Press on 11 Aug 10.
   To request additional processing, contact the OSC Customer Center at (800)
   205-8615 or OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - United Kingdom -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 09:34:39 GMT
   1- Article by Randah Taqiy-al-Din saying that the circumstantial evidence
   presented by Hizballah about involvement of Israel in assassinating
   al-Hariri will be investigated by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (700
   words, processing)

   2- Article by Abdallah Iskandar analyzing the situation in the Middle East
   following the conclusion of US Envoy Mitchell's tour and the International
   Quartet's statement (650 words, processing)

   3- Report on interview with Basim al-Awadi, adv iser to Iraqi Islamic
   Supreme Council leader, about negotiations with Al-Iraqiyah and Kurdistan
   Alliance (650 words, processing)

   4- Report citing Moroccan officials on the escalation of Moroccan-Spanish
   tension (650 words, processing)

   5- Article by Jihad al-Khazin on the dwindling of US Resident Obama's
   popularity despite his success in passing healthcare reforms and financial
   reforms, and the rise of popularity of the democrats (500 words, no
   processing)

   London Al-Sharq al-Awsat Online in Arabic 11 Aug 10 (Website of
   influential London-based pan-Arab Saudi daily; editorial line reflects
   Saudi official stance. URL:

   http://www.asharqalawsat.com/ http://www.asharqalawsat.com/)

   1- Report citing French sources saying French-US-Egyptian intervention
   stopped an Israeli military action against Lebanon (300 words, processing)

   2- Reports citing Lebanese legal and military experts on the validity of
   the evidence provided by Hizballah on the i nvolvement of Israel in
   Al-Hariri's assassination (1600 words, processing)

   3- Article by Abd-al-Rahman al-Rashid saying that Saudi Arabia has not
   been able to solve its most important economic problems despite its wealth
   (600 words, processing)

   4- Article by Adil al-Turayfi on the links between Al-Sistani and the
   United States, and his role in the stability of Iraq (1200 words,
   processing)

   5- Report citing Palestinian Presidency Adviser Nabil Abu-Rudaynah saying
   that US commitment to the Quartet statement is the condition for starting
   direct negotiations (200 words, processing)

   London Al-Quds al-Arabi Online in Arabic 11 Aug 10 (Website of
   London-based independent Arab nationalist daily with strong anti-US bias.
   URL:

   http://www.alquds.co.uk/ http://www.alquds.co.uk/)

   1- Editorial slamming Lebanese politicians and media for rushing to
   discredit Hizballah's accusations to Israel of involvement in Al-Hariri's
   assassination (1000 words , processing)

   London Ilaf.com in Arabic 11 Aug 10 (Saudi-owned, independent Internet
   daily with pan-Arab, liberal line. URL:

   http://www.elaph.com/ http://www.elaph.com/)

   1- Report citing UAE informed source saying that UAE cancelled Airbus and
   Boeing deals because of economic reasons (700 words, processing)

   Negative Selection:

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   2) Back to Top
   Chicago Soybean Extends Losses Amid Bearish Markets
   Xinhua: "Chicago Soybean Extends Losses Amid Bearish Markets" - Xinhua
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 23:18:14 GMT
   CHICAGO, Aug. 11 (Xi nhua) -- Chicago wheat futures steadied on Wednesday,
   and the prices were caught between the surging dollar and the supply
   concerns, as traders awaited the USDA's new crop production report due out
   on Thursday.

   Corn inched up, supported by strong export prospects of U.S. corn and the
   hot weather in U.S. Midwest, which is adding to the uncertainty about the
   USDA's crop estimates. Soybean ended moderately lower.December corn rose
   2.0 cents, or 0.5 percent, to 4.11 dollars per bushel. November soybean
   lost 6.5 cents, or 0.6 percent, to 10. 155 dollars per bushel.U.S. equity
   markets plunged on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve highlighted the
   weakness in U.S. economic recovery on Tuesday and noted that it is likely
   to be more modest in the near term than expected.The speculation that
   global economic recovery is slowing down has sparked heavy selling in
   grain futures markets on Wednesday, as investors fled riskier assets,
   including commodities and stocks, to safe-haven a ssets like the dollar
   and gold. The strong rally in the dollar and the decline in crude oil
   price on Wednesday both weighed on grain futures.The agricultural minister
   of Ukraine said on Wednesday that Ukraine, the world's biggest barley
   exporter, is considering introducing export quotas on wheat and other
   export crops, in order to curb surging domestic prices after the adverse
   weather had devastated its crop yields. The news has rekindled investors'
   concern over global wheat supply shortage and added upward pressure on
   wheat price.Traders noted that a flurry of corn export sales announced by
   the USDA on Wednesday, including 180,000 tonnes to Egypt, 103,632 tonnes
   to Japan, 480,000 tonnes to Mexico and 174,000 tonnes to an unknown
   destination, helped to push up corn price.Meanwhile, the USDA announced on
   Wednesday a sale of 115,000 tonnes of soybeans to China, which gave some
   support to soybean price. But it failed to offset the negative influence
   of the bearish markets as we ll as expectations of bumper crops in the
   United States.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's
   official news service for English-language audiences (New China News
   Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   3) Back to Top
   Xinhua 'News Analysis' on Likelihood of Direct Pelestinian-Israeli Talks
   News analysis by Xinhua reporters Li Laifang, Feng Kang and Zhu Junqing:
   Can the Arab League Meeting Help Bring About Direct Palestinian-Israeli
   Talks? - Xinhua Domestic Service
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 20:55:51 GMT
   Laifang, Feng Kang and Zhu Junqing: Can the Arab League Meeting H elp
   Bring About Direct Palestinian-Israeli Talks?

   The foreign ministers of 13 Arab countries will meet at a special
   conference of the Arab Peace Follow-up Committee here today, 29 July, to
   discuss matters concerning Palestinian-Israeli peace talks. This is
   another important diplomatic endeavor these Arab states make to promote
   Palestinian-Israeli peace talks.

   Ahmad bin Hilli, assistant secretary-general of the League of Arab States
   (Arab League), told the media the other day that the foreign ministers of
   Arab states would hear a report to be presented by Abbas, chairman of the
   Palestinian National Authority (PNA), on indirect Palestinian-Israeli
   talks, Palestine's contacts with the United States and Palestine's
   position; and decide whether they would support direct Palestinian-Israeli
   talks on this basis.

   Observers maintain that the meeting might adopt a resolution of supporting
   the proposal of replacing indirect Palestinian-Israeli talks with direct
   tal ks; and that Arab states' support is crucial to PNA's decision whether
   it will resume direct talks with Israel.

   According to Egypt's media, an official of the Palestinian Liberation
   Organization (PLO) Executive Committee said that, at the Arab Peace
   Follow-up Committee meeting, Abbas would request the indirect talks be
   extended to 8 September. This may create difficulty for the United States,
   which expects PNA and Israel to hold direct talks before the time set for
   the indirect talks expires.

   Under the United States' mediation, Palestine and Israel started their
   four-month long indirect talks last May. So far no progress has been made.
   Israel has not responded openly to the Palestinian side's requests on
   issues about its border and security. The United States, realizing that
   that the indirect talks are deadlocked, maintains that the two sides
   should address their problems through face-to-face talks. Thus it has made
   great efforts to urge PNA to have direct talk s with Israel. Certain
   European countries also have urged PNA and Israel to have direct talks.

   According to Imad Jad (name as transliterated), an expert of the Center
   for Political and Strategic Studies of Egypt's Al-Ahram, maintains that
   there are signs that show Palestine and Israel will hold direct talks, but
   that the Palestinian side must have Israel's pledge for its border and
   security.

   Abbas has indicated on many occasions that PNA is ready to have direct
   talks with Israel on the premise that progress is made on the indirect
   talks, Israel must acknowledge its border prior to the 1967 war and stop
   all the settlement constructions, and specific topics of discussion must
   be set.

   Earlier, the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), which is now controlling
   the Gaza strip, warned on 27 July that Abbas must not have direct talks
   with Israel under Arab states' aegis or under US pressure. Hamas is also
   against indirect talks with Israel.

   Hani Haraf (na me as transliterated), assistant to a former Egyptian
   foreign affairs minister, says in his analysis: the meeting of Arab
   states' foreign affairs ministers will restate the requests that they have
   made over the years, support Palestine's peace talks, urge Israel to stop
   its settlement constructions, and appeal to the international community to
   take up the responsibility of enforcing the international law. He
   maintains that the meeting of peace initiative will give Palestine a "coat
   of legitimacy" of holding direct talks with Israel, and Palestine and
   Israel will soon start their direct talks.

   In early March this year, the foreign ministers of Arab states decided at
   the Arab Peace Follow-up Committee to support indirect Palestinian-Israeli
   talks, and Abbas accepted the Arab League's proposal and started its
   indirect talks with Israel under US mediation. The Israel's continual
   construction of new Jewish settlements has obstructed the p rogress of the
   talks in one way or another.

   The Arab Peace Initiative that Saudi Arabia presented in 2002 restarted in
   March 2007. According to the initiative, all Arab states will recognize
   Israel as long as Israel withdraws from the lands it occupied in the 1967
   war, (recognizes) the founding of the Palestinian state with East
   Jerusalem as the capital, and addresses the Palestinian refugee problem
   justly.

   Earlier this month, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu also indicated that
   he was ready to hold direct talks with Palestine, but Arab states question
   whether direct talks can achieve any results since the indirect talks have
   made no progress. The talks that Netanyahu had with Egyptian President
   Mubarak in Cairo on 18 July and his exchange of views with Jordan King
   Abdullah on 27 July apparently show that he wants the support of these two
   Arab states that have diplomatic relations with Israel.

   Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa indicated on 27 July that holding
   direct Pal estinian-Israeli talks under the circumstance in which Israel
   "has made no guarantee" is tantamount to accepting the status quo of
   Palestine's territory. He said the direct talks could not go on.

   Egypt's political analysts maintain that both direct and indirect talks
   are just formalistic matters, what is more important is whether or not the
   two sides are serious with discussing substantive matters, and the
   guarantee that Palestine needs is for the sake of building mutual trust
   between the two sides.

   (Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua Domestic Service in Chinese --
   China's official news service (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   4) Back to Top
   Georgia Opposes Russia's Decision To Deploy Air Defence Systems In
   Abkhazia - ITAR-TASS
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 19:49:53 GMT
   intervention)

   TBILISI, August 11 (Itar-Tass) -- Georgia is disgruntled at Russia's
   decision to deploy S-300 air defence systems in Abkhazia."Such actions on
   the part of the Russian Federation run counter to the ceasefire agreement
   between Georgia and the Russian Federation of August 12, 2008," Vice Prime
   Minister, State Minister for Reintegration Temuri Yakobashvili said on
   Wednesday, August 11."This decision reveals Russia's desire to demonstrate
   its strength. I think NATO should express concern over such actions by the
   Russian Federation because they upset the balance of force in the region,"
   he said.Yakobashvili believes that the deployment of S-300 systems in
   Abkhazia "is directed more against NATO and the United St ates which are
   deploying their air defence systems in Eastern Europe than against
   Georgia."Russian Air Force Commander, Colonel-General Alexander Zelin said
   earlier in the day that the Russian S-300 air defence systems and air
   defence units deployed in Abkhazia and South Ossetia would down all
   aircraft that transgress the air space of these republics."The mission of
   these air defence systems is not only the protection of Abkhazia and South
   Ossetia, but also the prevention of state border transgressions in the air
   space and the destruction of any aircraft transgressing the air space of
   these republics regardless of their mission," he said."We are planning to
   carry out the mission of shielding the Russian military bases in Abkhazia
   and South Ossetia comprehensively. The frontline and army aviation will be
   on combat duty to support the air defence systems in Abkhazia and South
   Ossetia. We have deployed the S-300 air defence system in Abkhazia to
   provide air defence in Abkhazia and South Ossetia in cooperation with the
   air defence systems of the Ground Troops," Zelin said."The S-300 air
   defence system covers facilities only in Abkhazia, while army air defence
   systems perform this mission in South Ossetia," he said.(Description of
   Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   5) Back to Top
   11 August 2010
   For a copy of the video, contact GSG_GVP_VideoOps@rccb.osis.gov or the OSC
   Customer Center at (800) 205-8615. Selected video also available at
   OpenSource.gov - International -- OSC Multimedia
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 17:34:34 GMT
   This OSC product is based exclusively on the content and behavior of
   selected media and has not been coordinated with other US Government
   components.

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   6) Back to Top
   Result of Georgia War -- Strategic Gain For Russia in World Politics
   Article by Fedor Lukyanov: "Turmoil After Revenge" (GZT.ru Online) -
   GZT.ru
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 17:18:57 GMT
   Russia has not ended up in international isolation, as many commentators
   had predicted. Of course, the world financial crisis played a big rol e.
   The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the collapse of the markets forced
   us to forget about everything else for a long time.

   The main political result of the crisis was probably the defeat of John
   McCain in the US presidential elections. Had he become the master of the
   White House, the world atmosphere - and the interest of Washington in
   Georgia - would have been different.

   But I will risk presuming that, even without the crisis, the scenario of
   relations of Moscow and the Western capitals would still have been
   similar. For objective reasons.

   One of the reasons why there was a war on the post-Soviet area was the
   position of the US (officially undeclared, but obvious), to the effect
   that Russia's opinion is not a hindrance to Washington's implementation of
   the strategy that it considers correct.

   The inability to counter Russian actions, when Moscow went all out, became
   an annoying revelation for the White House. And one more signal to the re
   st of the world that American hegemony had not worked out.

   Even if Obama had not won the election, any other president would have
   gotten the same unenviable legacy. That is, he would have been forced to
   choose the priorities and to commensurate the desires with the real
   capacities. There probably would not have been any "reset," but a cold
   "peaceful co-existence" would certainly be possible.

   No matter what politicians and analysts may say about the old-fashioned
   nature of reliance on military force, the ability and readiness to employ
   it remains the most important factor determining a state's position on the
   world arena. The "5-day war" demonstrated this once again.

   Two years ago, Russia lost the battle for the sympathies of world public
   opinion. It did not get the political support that it had expected, became
   convinced of the unreliability of its allies, took on the problems
   associated with the unclear future of the tw o territories, negated its
   own morally and legally irreproachable position on non-recognition of
   Kosovo, and felt the weakness of its own army.

   The list of negative consequences of the conflict is long.

   But all of them are outweighed by one strategic victory: Moscow forced
   others to take it seriously.

   An unpleasant surprise for the surrounding world was the fact that, when
   Russia talks about "red lines," it turns out that it should not be
   shrugged off. For example, representatives of the Western establishment,
   who before the war in the Caucasus had not paid attention to Russia's
   annoying statements about the need for a new system of security in Europe,
   now admit that the formulation of the question is legitimate in principle.

   No one intends to accept the "Medvedev plan," but nevertheless the
   discussion about reform of the OSCE has become notably livelier, and the
   idea of inviting Russia to join NATO has become practically comm onplace
   in expert discussions. Moreover, some talk about this not as instrument
   for "taming" the Kremlin, but in the context of survival of the alliance
   itself as an effective organization.

   When it becomes clear that both the OSCE and NATO are not being adapted to
   the new realities, perhaps they will recallDmitriy Medvedev's idea about
   the new architecture of European security...

   After the Georgian war and the economic crisis, Russia has in fact
   achieved what it wanted. Even though the president's words in August of
   2008 to the effect that Moscow aspires to a "sphere of privileged
   interests" evoked great indignation at the time, today this sphere has in
   essence been recognized.

   Europe and the US have enough of their own problems to spend effort and
   time on the post-Soviet area, and China did not aspire to political
   influence, but satisfied itself with achieving specific economic goals.

   The "5-day war" put a unique e nd to the former agenda. The US and NATO
   understood that winning geopolitical "trophies," which remained after the
   collapse of the USSR, can no longer serve as the leitmotif for the
   strategy in Eurasia.

   The real threats and challenges dictate other priorities, and the search
   for a new mission for NATO cannot forever be substituted with mechanical
   eastward expansion.

   Russia has gotten symbolic revenge for the failures and defeats of the
   past 20 years. Even though the "prize" that was won is incommensurate with
   the scope of what was lost before, the psychological effect is
   significant.

   Moscow needed a psychological victory over its Western opponents, so as to
   rid itself of its inferiority complex - the reasons for many dangerous
   instances of casting about in the "zero years." Mikhail Saakashvili
   unwittingly gave Russia such an opportunity.

   The war evoked an upsurge of panic in the neighboring countries and in the
   Wes t: Oh, Russia is undertaking restoration of its empire, the expansion
   has begun. But in fact, it was just the opposite.

   After the initial euphoria, Moscow soberly appraised the situation that
   had developed and came to some disquieting conclusions. Having gotten the
   opportunity for regional leadership, Russia became convinced that it is
   very difficult to realize not for foreign, but for domestic reasons.

   There are more than enough tactical successes, but not enough economic,
   political, military and intellectual resources to bring to life the goals
   that Moscow is setting for itself both in the CIS, and in the
   international arena in general.

   The Soviet potential has dried up in every sense of the word - from the
   material-technical and organizational to the ideological-political. And
   the ineffectiveness of the state apparatus hinders the process of
   necessary domestic transformation, even though the fact that the former
   model has been exhausted is obvious even to those who are serving as the
   hindrance.

   The "modernization alliances" with leading countries that were proposed by
   Dmitriy Medvedev will hardly help. In order to make use of their fruits,
   the active part of society must consciously strive for this. And it is
   specifically its sentiments, the mixture of apathy and vague unrest, that
   does not favor change.

   Especially since, by many indicators, the behind-the-scenes "electoral
   campaign" has already started in Russia, and we know from experience that
   this is an unsuitable time for great endeavors. In the best case, they
   will return to the problems of development when the question of power has
   been resolved once again.

   At the same time, the international problems that led to the Caucasus war,
   among other things, have not been regulated. The general imbalance in the
   system of international relations is only becoming more aggravated. The
   focus of attention is being shifted to Asi a, and there, among the rapidly
   developing states, the position of Russia is weaker than it is in Europe,
   even though, at first glance, it appears that there are not the acute
   problems in the East as there are with the West.

   The crisis of basic institutions has entered its next stage - the behavior
   of specific count ries is changing: China and Turkey, Germany and Japan,
   Brazil and Iran. The number of players with whom we must come to agreement
   is growing before our very eyes. This process will pick up steam, making
   world politics ever less predictable and more spontaneous.

   The consequences of the Georgian war are of so little interest to the
   leading world players today because too many new uncertainties have arisen
   since that time. The destination point of the uncontrolled transit is
   still unknown.

   (Description of Source: Moscow Gzt.ru -- Informative news website owned by
   metals magnate Lisin; not affiliated with the Gazeta.ru website; URL:
   http://gzt .ru/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   7) Back to Top
   Burjanadze to Write to Mccain About Brutal Treatment of Demonstrators in
   Georgia - Interfax
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 16:57:45 GMT
   Georgia

   TBILISI. Aug 11 (Interfax) - Leader of the opposition Democratic Movement
   - United Georgia party Nino Burjanadze plans to write an open letter to
   U.S. Senator John McCain criticizing his ideas about the situation in her
   country.At a meeting with journalists on Wednesday she commented on the
   senator's article in The Washington Post in which he lauds democracy and
   the rule of law in Georgia and denou nces the dispersal of demonstrations
   and the violation of human rights in Russia."I am very curious where
   McCain has seen democracy and the rule of law in Georgia or its difference
   from Russia. Why doesn't he write anything about attacks on peaceful
   processions in Georgia exemplified by the incident on May 6 when the heads
   of peaceful protesters were broken outside of the police headquarters in
   Tbilisi, "Burjanadze, who was the former Georgian parliament speaker,
   said.The U.S. senator is not informed about the actual situation in
   Georgia, she said."For me America is a symbol of democracy and I hope that
   Mr. McCain remains a friend of Georgia not a friend of (Georgian
   President) Mikheil Saakashvili. I will ask him all these questions in an
   open letter," Burjanadze said.ml ap(Our editorial staff can be reached at
   eng.editors@interfax.ru)Interfax-950040-DPBADBAA

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permis sion for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   8) Back to Top
   Urdu Press Roundup Discusses Government's Reponse to Flood Emergency -
   Pakistan -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 12:41:25 GMT
   Claiming that it is because of the failure of previous governments to
   build dams that we are facing floods devastations today, the editorial
   says: "The recent devastation caused by the floods provide us with a
   lesson that, if the past rulers had realized the resources and problems of
   the country and had constructed smaller dams, the intensity of the
   devastation caused by the flood tides could have been minimized. By
   diverting the course of the flood tides, they could have turned the
   melting of glaciers in the northern parts of the country and other areas
   into a blessing. However, for this government and public support,
   effective preemptive measures, and steadfast and transparent
   implementation of these measures are a prerequisite." Express Article by
   Abdul Qadir Hassan Argues Humanitarian Tragedy Looming Ahead

   Terming the post-flood situation as a catastrophe, the article states:
   "This is a national disaster, which is being termed a flood. This is not
   only an enraged flood tide but is a nemesis for our deeds that has assumed
   the form of floods. At present, we are looking as to where the flood tides
   are hitting and what ruins are being caused there. The real situation will
   emerge when the flood will be over and hundreds of thousands of displaced
   families will be searching for their homes, which have totally been swept
   away. There is nothing left in these areas but disease and a darker
   future." Express Article by Asadullah Ghalib Discusses Role of Pr esident

   Welcoming the funds raised by the president during his visit to Britain
   and his personal donation, the article states: "So far as the flood
   torrent is concerned, the president did not forget the flood-affected
   people during his visit. His son Bilawal established a fund for the
   affected people and the president has donated a large amount of 2.5
   million pounds to it, which is equal to 300 million rupees. Though the
   president's role in the constitution is a formal one, he is all in all in
   the Pakistan People's Party (PPP); therefore, it is his fundamental
   responsibility to seek solution to all the problems being faced by
   Pakistan. The president can bring about revolutionary reforms in every
   field of life if time is given to him to implement his vision." Express
   Article by Javed Chaudhry Lashes Out at Apathy of Rulers

   Decrying the overall indifference of the rulers with particular reference
   to President Zardari's visit to Britain, the article s tates: "Our ruling
   elite have no time for the people, no matter if they are ill, stranded in
   storms, or inundated by flood water, nor do they have the energy to do so.
   No matter whether we believe it or not, when the nation needs leadership,
   the head of the Islamic welfare state is sitting in London. The entire
   world is laughing at our behavior. We accept all the compulsions of the
   president, but the president should accept one thing from our side as
   well, which is that he has made mockery of both the democracy and
   governance by sitting in London today." Express Article by Iyaz Khan
   Appeals to Nation to Come Forward

   Urging the people who have been spared by the natural calamity to come
   ahead to help their suffering brethren, the article states: "We cannot
   speak of the behavior of the politicians. They are extending less
   assistance to the affected people and are engaged in point scoring. They
   are only interested in foreign visits and statements. Th e spirit to help
   has emerged among the nation, but there is need for more. This is an
   appeal to all those who are still safe, they sho uld not get new clothes
   on Id this year and instead use this money to buy essential goods for the
   flood-affected people." Jinnah Editorial Warns Against Delay in Provision
   of Relief to Flood-Hit People

   Emphasizing that the rulers should chalk out a strategy to rehabilitate
   the flood-affected people on a fast track, the editorial states: "The
   government should prepare a comprehensive economic policy on an emergency
   basis. This is because the traditional estimates, which were based on
   hypothesis, have been swept away by floods. Now Pakistan needs such a
   comprehensive economic policy that is prepared in view of the realities on
   the ground. If the rulers fail in coping with the devastation caused by
   the floods and fail in providing shelter to the homeless people, the storm
   of the masses may head toward the houses of power and it will not be
   possible for anyone to divert it." Jinnah Editorial Deplores Rulers Over
   Not Appealing to Friendly Countries

   Believing that the government should have approached Pakistan's friends
   for assistance at this critical time, the editorial states: "The
   government seems unnerved in the face of this unexpected natural calamity.
   At first, the government considered it as a routine matter and did not
   take it seriously. However, as the devastation caused by the floods
   reached the world and the people through the media, it extended its hand
   to the United States instead of launching an appeal to the friendly
   countries. Then it started narrating its plight before Britain and
   France." Jinnah Article by Khalid Jamil Appreciates Army's Role

   Expressing regrets that the political leadership resorted to the blame
   game in this hour of trial, the article argued: "Only the Pakistan Army
   has provided practical support to the flood-affected people, while the
   politicians did not refrain from slinging mud at each other and
   unnecessarily criticizing each other at this critical occasion. Because of
   this, the people are fast losing their confidence (in the government). On
   the contrary, the Army did not wade through the flood water for the sake
   of photo opportunities nor did it level allegations or resort to the blame
   game like the politicians." Ausaf Editorial Urges Rulers To Come Forward
   To Help Those Affected by Flood

   Advising the rulers to join the relief and rehabilitation activities in
   this hour of trial, the editorial states: "The president, prime minister,
   chief ministers, and the federal and provincial ministers should
   immediately announce that they will not host any official fast-breaking
   party in the month of fasting. Those who are billionaires among them
   should give millions from their personal money to the fund established for
   flood hit-people. The president, prime minister, and chief minist ers
   should cancel all their foreign visits and stand by the flood-hit people.
   If these people are afraid because of security apprehension and do not
   have the guts to stand by the calamity-hit people, they have no right to
   remain in government. Such people should resign and go back to their
   homes, deploy scores of security guards outside their homes, and live in
   isolation." Mashriq Editorial Finds Government Helpless

   Referring to the statement of the prime minister that the catastrophe is
   beyond the available resources, the editorial states: "By terming the
   havoc wrecked by the floods as beyond the government's resources, Prime
   Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani has expressed his helplessness. There is no
   room to disagree with the statement of prime minister. The realities on
   the ground and the situation substantiate this very fact that not only the
   government but the government's resources and its machinery and
   administration have also miserably failed in minimi zing the problems of
   the affected people. The ludicrous role in this regard was played by those
   at the helm of the affairs at the National Disaster Management Authority
   (NDMA), when they allegedly established a fake relief camp at Mianwali on
   the occasion of the visit of the prime minister in a bid to show their
   'performance.'" Islam Editorial Argues Government Showed Poor Performance

   Lamenting that the government's performance has been very poor in this
   situation, the editorial states: "We have to again refer to the poor
   performance of the government here, when, despite the warning by the
   weather and geographical experts about the environmental changes and the
   dangerous situation, the concerned authorities including the federal and
   provincial governments did not prepare teams comprising civil defense,
   scouts, and retired servicemen to cope with such an emergency situation
   and did not acquire the necessary equipment. Therefore, the worst
   situation created by the floods exposed the flawed government
   infrastructure, the reality of development work, public representatives,
   and their performance." Jasarat Editorial Believes Floods Sweeping Away
   Government's Image

   Maintaining that floods have again proved that the government has failed
   to deliver, the editorial argues: "The flood has washed away the remaining
   credibility of the government. It will be correct to say about the
   president that he was not in the country. The prime minister made it clear
   that he was the chief executive of the country in the absence of President
   Zardari, and he was in the country as well as all the five chief
   ministers. However, it is strange that flood-hit people in every area and
   people reeling under miseries complained that they did not see the rulers
   even in this hour of trial and that the public representatives did not
   visit them to share their grief. The NDMA also did not prove effective in
   providing assistance."

   Ma terial in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   9) Back to Top
   Contacts Involving France, US, Others Prevent Israeli Action Against
   Lebanon
   Report from Paris, Washington, Tel Aviv, and Beirut by Michel Abu-Nijm,
   Mina al-Uraybi, Nazir Mujalli, and Paula Istayh respectively: "French
   Sources Say Western and Arab Capitals Prevented an Israeli Strike Against
   the Lebanese Army. The Sources Told Al-Sharq al-Awsat Baraq Informed
   Kouchner of the Intention to Revenge. There Is a Split Over Nasrallah's
   'Circumstantial Evidences'. Iran Offers to Compensate Beirut for the US
   Weapons" - Al-Sharq al-Awsat Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 12:39:52 GMT
   yesterday, well informed French sources disclosed that Israeli Defense
   Minister Ehud Baraq informed French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner in a
   telephone call after the armed clash between the Lebanese Army and Israeli
   forces in Al-Udaysah, south Lebanon, last week that Israel "intends to
   carry out a major military operation to discipline the Lebanese Army and
   avenge the killing of a senior Israeli officer."

   These sources said that contacts were held at the highest levels involving
   French President Nicolas Sarkozy, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton,
   Egypt, Jordan, and other Arab and international parties, and that these
   contacts resulted in curbing the tension and the rush to an open-ended
   battle.

   On a separate issue, public opinion and politicians in Lebanon were
   divided over Lebanese Hizballah Secretary General Hasan Nasrallah's
   accusations that Israel is involved in the assassination of former
   Lebanese Prime Mi nister Rafiq al-Hariri and over the circumstantial
   evidences that he produced.

   For its part, the Israeli Foreign Ministry said in an official statement
   yesterday that Nasrallah's statements are "ridiculous and deserve no
   response."

   Elsewhere, former MP Nazim Khuri, an adviser to the Lebanese president,
   criticized "the suspension of US aid to the (Lebanese) Army worth $100
   million." Meanwhile, Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon Ghadanfar Roken Abadi
   asserted his country's readiness "to assist the Lebanese Army in
   performing its role to defend Lebanon."

   Earlier, Chairman of the US House Foreign Relations Committee Howard
   Berman took a decision to suspend the funding "because of reports about
   Hizballah's influence on the army", as he put it.

   (Description of Source: London Al-Sharq al-Awsat Online in Arabic --
   Website of influential London-based pan-Arab Saudi daily; editorial line
   reflects Saudi official stance. URL :
   http://www.asharqalawsat.com/)Attachments:ATTH4YZ5.mhtATTHKYIU.mht

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   10) Back to Top
   Clinton Discusses Iranian Nuclear Program With Davutoglu
   "Clinton Discusses Iranian Nuclear Program With Davutoglu" -- KUNA
   Headline - KUNA Online
   Monday July 12, 2010 22:12:21 GMT
   (KUWAIT NEWS AGENCY) - WASHINGTON, July 12 (KUNA) -- US Secretary of State
   Hillary Clinton called her Turkish counterpart Ahmet Davutoglu to discuss
   the Iranian nuclear program, the State Department announced on
   Monday.Assistant Secretary for public diplomacy Philip Crowley told
   reporter s that "earlier this morning, the secretary had about a 45-minute
   conversation with Turkish Foreign Minister Davutoglu. They reviewed a wide
   range of subjects during the call, including the situation with respect to
   Iran." "We have ongoing concerns about the nature of Iran's nuclear
   program. There are many questions that we have that have gone unanswered,"
   he added.Turkey and Brazil reached on May 17 a nuclear fuel swap deal with
   Iran where Tehran agreed to send 1,200 kilograms of its low-enriched
   uranium to Turkey in return for higher grade fuel from Russia and France
   for a research reactor."Under these circumstances, from our standpoint,
   and what we have made clear in our conversations with many countries is
   that this cannot be a situation of business as usual. This is about the
   future of the world. This is about the danger of a nuclear-arms race in
   the Middle East, which will affect countries outside of the region,
   including India," affirmed Crowley."Everyone has a responsibility to do
   what each country can to convince Iran to change its present course - we
   are moving forward both to implement international sanctions and to
   evaluate how we can take additional national measures that puts pressure
   on the Iranian government to come forward and engage constructively," he
   added.Crowley noted that "as Iran attempts to perfect the technologies
   involved in enrichment, it gets closer to that point at which the leap
   from a civilian program to a military program is narrowed. We have
   definite concerns that if this trajectory continues, that Iran will at
   some point approach that moment, that tipping point, if you will, where it
   has a de facto military capability."We are doing everything in our power
   to delay and deter that moment from occurring. That is why today, at this
   point, what we need is international resolve. All countries have a special
   obligation to do everything that they can to convince Iran t o move in a
   different direction," he added.Crowley also noted that Clinton "reiterated
   the United States's commitment to help with the PKK as a designated
   foreign terrorist organization. The PKK remains a common enemy of Turkey,
   the United States and Iraq and is a threat to the stability of the
   region." "We continue to support efforts by Turkey and Iraq to deal with
   the problem of the PKK," he added.Turkish officials accuse militants from
   the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) of launching attacks on Turkish border
   guards from Northern Iraq.Crowley also said that Clinton "encouraged the
   foreign minister to continue important dialogue with Israel because that
   relationship remains a vitally important one to the future of the region."
   Turkish-Israeli relations have been strained since the May 31 Israeli raid
   on a Gaza-bound aid flotilla in international waters, which resulted in
   the killing of 9 Turkish citizens on board.(Description of Source: Kuwai t
   KUNA Online in English -- Official news agency of the Kuwaiti Government;
   URL: http://www.kuna.net.kw)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   11) Back to Top
   American War Spending Enters the Era of Wikileaks
   "American War Spending Enters the Era of Wikileaks" -- The Daily Star
   Headline - The Daily Star Online
   Thursday August 12, 2010 01:29:15 GMT
   Thursday, August 12, 2010

   What occurred on the floor of the People-s House two Tuesdayafternoons ago
   was, quite possibly, the first ever congressional wikidebate.Lawmakers are
   privy to all sorts of classified information and confidenti albriefings
   about national security, but as they argued about a new spending billto
   fund the war in Afghanistan and neighboring Pakistan, they spent a good
   bitof the afternoon bickering about things they-d seen on the
   internet.'The debate to remove us from Pakistan becomes urgent in light of
   theWikiLeaks expose,' Representative Dennis Kucinich, an Ohio Democrat,
   saidof the posting of tens of thousands of classified US military
   documents on awebsite this week.'I argue that the revelation of this
   WikiLeaks, you know, thousands andthousands of documents, is evidence that
   we need to work to continue to build(Pakistan-s) democratic institutions,'
   Representative David Dreier,a Californian Republican,
   countered.Representative Jim McGovern, a Massachusetts Democrat, argued
   that 'thedocuments that were published all over the world yesterday remind
   us that wedon-t have any reliable partners; the Afghan government is
   corrupt andincompetent.'Representative Howard Berman, a California De
   mocrat, said the WikiLeakstreasure trove of documents 'isn-t a reason to
   abandon our manyfriends in Pakistan.'It was one of those unnerving moments
   when you realize that our leadersdon-t have any better handle on events
   than the rest of us. Members ofCongress send troops to war and spend
   trillions of dollars of thetaxpayers- (and the Chinese government-s) money
   - and yetthey seemed to base their positions on the Afghanistan war on
   what they-dread in the newspapers, watched on television or picked up from
   the Web. Sevenyears after authorizing an invasion of Iraq in search of
   phantom weapons ofmass destruction, lawmakers are basing policy on the
   drip, drip, drip ofWikiLeaks?As lawmakers engaged in this wikidebate, the
   only solid conclusion to emergewas that President Barack Obama had lost
   whatever limited control he had overcongressional Democrats. In a rare
   spectacle, the chairman of the HouseAppropriations Committee, David Obey,
   a Wisconsin Democrat, announced that hewas opp osing the war spending bill
   that he was expected to shepherd to passageon the House floor. 'I have the
   obligation to bring this supplementalbefore the House to allow the
   institution to work its will,' Obey said onthe floor, 'but I also have the
   obligation to my conscience.'Obey, like other liberals, was also angered
   that the White House had issued aveto threat that forced him to remove
   from the bill funds for education andother domestic projects. The
   defection by Obey and 101 other liberals forcedDemocratic leaders to rely
   on support from Republicans for the war spendingbill.The liberals,
   seething because they were outmaneuvered by Obama, authored aresolution to
   force an end to US involvement in Pakistan. Thus began the greatdeluge of
   wiki references. 'Yesterday-s revelations in documentspublished by
   WikiLeaks,' said McGovern, show that 'the Pakistanintelligence agency
   exerts great sway' over militant groups hostile tothe United States. That,
   he said, argued for getting out of Pakistan.'I share a high level of
   frustration,' Dreier responded,'with the reports that just came out this
   past weekend, the WikiLeaksreport.' But, he said, 'these documents have
   underscored theimportance ... ... to make sure we build up greater
   civilian control' inPakistan.'The most alarming of the reports relating to
   WikiLeaks,' Kucinichcontributed, were 'the ones that described the
   collusion betweenPakistan-s military service and the Taliban.'Dreier
   argued that 'the leak that came out' about the Talibanconnection 'is not a
   completely new revelation.'Unmoved, McGovern said that 'in light of all
   the questions that have beenraised' by WikiLeaks, 'it seems to me that it
   is inappropriate forus to vote yes on a blank check for this
   administration to do whatever theywant in Afghanistan.'Representative
   Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Florida, the ranking Republican on theHouse Foreign
   Affairs Committee, worried aloud that 'some will focus onthe information
   reportedly contained in the m any thousands of classified USdocuments ...
   ... as justification for this resolution.' She said thatwould be a
   'knee-jerk approach to our national security.'However, the knee-jerk
   accusation didn-t cause Kucinich to buckle. In hisclosing argument, he
   invoked WikiLeaks three more times as justification forpulling out of
   Pakistan.Conducting national affairs by wiki is inherently tricky. But if
   members of theHouse are getting their intelligence briefings from the Web,
   surely the eruditeand informed statesmen of the Senate know better - don-t
   they?As House members attempted to out-wiki one another, the Senate Armed
   ServicesCommittee was meeting on the other side of the Capitol to question
   the incomingcommander of Central Command, General James Mattis. Senator
   John McCain ofArizona, the ranking Republican, got right down to business.
   'General,thank you again for your service,' he began. 'On the issue du
   jourof the WikiLeaks ... ...'Dana Milbank is a columnist for The
   Washington P ost. This is a replacementcolumn while David Ignatius is on
   vacation.(Description of Source: Beirut The Daily Star Online in English
   -- Website of the independent daily, The Daily Star; URL:
   http://dailystar.com.lb)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   12) Back to Top
   Yeni Ozgur Politika Headlines 5 August 2010
   The following is a list of news headlines from the Yeni Ozgur Politika
   website on 5 August; to request additional processing, please contact OSC
   at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735, fax (703) 613-5735, or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov - Yeni Ozgur Politika Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 21:47:13 GMT
   Sister of Ape Musa Dies - Vetha Anter, sister of Ape Musa (Musa Anter),
   the man considered to be the Kurdish wise man, died in the hospital in
   which she was being treated.

   Condolences in Elih (Batman) Continue - Condolence visits continue to the
   tent that was opened for the Ozdemir Brothers and for Sedat Ozevin, the
   former chairman of the Batman branch of the IHD (Human Rights Association)
   and Batman Bar Association, who all lost their lives recently in Elih.

   Police Attack Condolence Tent - Police used pressurized water and tear gas
   in an attack on the condolence tent set up for a HPG (People's Defense
   Forces) member who lost his life in Kercews (Gercus), Elih. People
   protested the police attack, saying: "The AKP (Justice and Development
   Party) government can't even tolerate having prayers said for the dead."

   Soysal's Condition is Critical - Nurettin Soysal, a prisoner in the
   Diyarbakir D-type closed prison who has lymph cancer, has been h
   ospitalized in the Dicle University Medical Faculty Hospital because his
   situation has deteriorated. Now in intensive care, Soysal's condition
   continues to be critical.

   Boycott is Request for Autonomy - BDP (Peace and Democracy Party )
   Co-Chairman Demirtas called for a boycott and said: "Empty ballot boxes
   will demonstrate that the Kurds want Democratic Autonomy."

   Turkey Begging For Roj TV - Amed Dicle: The Turkish government is
   virtually begging everybody to close down our TV station. The Turkish
   authorities are using two different issues to obstruct our broadcasting.
   They are claiming that we are propagandizing for the PKK and that we are
   receiving money from the PKK.

   Kurdish Petitions Confiscated - Officials at the Kurkculer F-type closed
   prison confiscated 54 Kurdish petitions written by custodial and convicted
   prisoners to the enforcement judge

   Why Didn't You Take Measures? - The women of Amed (Diyarbakir) who visited
   the grave of Seyman Gunes in Kayapinar, Amed, who was found half-buried a
   month and a half ago and who it was later learned had been killed by a
   decision made by a family council, called out to the authorities: "You saw
   the danger. Why didn't you take the necessary measures?"

   Learning a Trade and Contributing to Family Resources - 25 women are both
   receiving training and contributing to the family's financial resources by
   attending a course on kilim-making that was opened last month by the
   Sirnak Balveren Mayorality and is receiving support from the Center for
   Public Education and from Is Kur (public agency that supports the
   establishment of small businesses). 

   Was Hanife Burned to Death? - It turns out that 40-year-old Hanife Durak
   of Malatya, who was reported to the police as missing 18 months ago, had
   been murdered as an intra-familial killing. The prosecutor's office
   believes that she may have been burned to death.

   Sara Aktas: Empathy or Power to Un derstand - It is not easy to struggle
   to exist in a world whose everyday violence smashes the textures of our
   lives to bits.

   High Temperatures Take Their Toll! - The heat wave that has sent
   thermometers soaring to 6-8 degrees above their normal for the season is
   causing a string of such human ailments as panic, worry, anxiety,
   weakness, and even skin cancer.

   TEDAS (Turkey Electric Company) Fines Emptied Village - TEDAS is sending
   out electric bills to villages that haven't been visited in the past 20
   years. In their reactions, the villagers say that they don't understand
   the logic behind this.

   Meaningful Meeting of Kurdish And Turkish Youth - Two teams from
   Bielefeld, Germany, Yekspor, a team that plays in the Kreis Liga C Group,
   and SC Bosphorus, a Turkish team that plays in the Kreis Liga B Group,
   paved a new path with a meaningful meeting.

   Mud and Cement to Solve Oil Leak! - BP, one of the world's biggest oil
   companies, says that they have star ted to implement their
   long-planned-for operation that will entirely seal off the oil that is
   spilling into the Gulf of Mexico.

   Things Get Messy in Italy! - The Italian house of representatives is going
   to take a vote of confidence on Minister of Justice Giacomo Caliendo.
   Caliendo is under investigation for his possible membership in "P3," a
   secret organization made up of politicians and businessmen.

   UN Asks Sides to Cool Down - After a clash that broke out on the
   Lebanon-Israel border between the military forces of both countries, the
   UN Security Council called an extraordinary meeting and asked both sides
   to show moderation. Kurdish News:

   Kurdish Workers Being Housed in Stables - Thousand of Kurds were forced to
   migrate to cities around Turkey when their homes and villagers were burned
   down. Because they face so many financial problems, they migrate every
   year to Cukurova, Central Anatolia, the Aegean region and the regions
   around the Black S ea.

   55 Million Cluster Bombs in Ten Years - Iraqi Minister of the Environment
   Nermin Osman said that 55 million cluster bomblets had been used between
   1991 and 2001.

   They Came Together for Seyid Riza - Citizens in Dersim (Tunceli) united in
   their rejection of the order to remove the monument of Seyid Riza, a
   pioneer of the Dersim rebellion. The people of Dersim people asked the
   state authorities to face the truth.

   Tandoor Ovens for "Clumsy" Women - When you walk down the streets of
   Gulbahce you will see a sample of a tandoor oven, or even a whole group of
   just-made tandoors.

   Refusing to Become a Tool of the State - The TZP Kurdi (Kurdish Education
   and Language Movement) called on Kurdish intellectuals: "Don't allow
   yourself to be tools of the state's tricks and deceptions. Lay claim to
   your own culture."

   Bomb Under City Hall - On the heels of the killing of the former chairman
   of the Elih Branch of the IHD and Bar asso ciation and the killing of a
   cab driver in Sirnex, a time bomb was found underneath the Dersim city
   hall. The bomb was discovered by chance by a city worker.

   They Couldn't Tolerate "Feqiye Teyran" - Bekir Kaya, the Mayor of
   Wan(Van), was angered by the fact that the governor of Wan refused to
   allow a city park to bear the name of Feqiye Teyran. Kaya criticized the
   governor's decision and said that this demonstrates the hypocrisy of the
   state.

   "Cemil Cicek Should Read Koran's Taha Verse" - Regarding the projects he
   has carried out to date, Osman Baydemir, the mayor of the Greater
   Municipality of Diyarbakir, said, "We started making world-shattering
   changes in our region." He went on to say that this was not the first time
   that a probe had been launched against him.

   "Kurds Take Up Arms to Protect Themselves" - Kerim Bahri, a former MP of
   the Kurdistan Federal region parliament said that Turkey left the Kurds no
   o ther option other than taking up arms, and said that the Kurds do not
   want war but are only trying to defend themselves.

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   13) Back to Top
   Al-Hayah Commentary Urges Riyadh Set Conditions Before Agreeing Better
   Iran Ties
   Commentary by Saudi writer Abdallah Nasir al-Utaybi: "Ali Larijani Becomes
   Pragmatist" - Al-Hayah Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 19:23:13 GMT
   Only three assumptions can be made to explain this sudden change in the
   way Iran deals with events, positions, and the situation in the region.
   The first assumption is that Mr Larijani has re ally felt that Tehran has
   driven Saudi-Iranian relations to a rough terrain that is no good for
   communication, and that it now should deal with this mistake by building
   model-type, clean relations with Riyadh. The second assumption is that he
   thinks that Saudi Arabia is important in the region but plays roles that
   are incompatible with its importance; therefore, through this call for
   reconciliation, he wants Riyadh to return to the "right" path, as Iran
   sees it. The third assumption is that he is trying to use Iran's
   supposedly "advantageous" new relations with Saudi Arabia to get out of
   the tunnel of the crisis that is badly shaking Iran's clerical
   establishment.

   Iran is going through a state of uncertainty. This is clearly reflected by
   the recent statements of its leaders. These start with the promise of
   complete control of the country's airspace by 2017, according to President
   Mahmud Ahmadinezhad, through Iran's complaint to the UN made by i ts
   representative Mohammad Khaza'i. In this Iran strongly protested
   statements made by Admiral Mike Mullen, the chairman of the US Joint
   Chiefs of Staff, to the effect that plans are ready to hit Iran
   militarily. They end with the two messages sent by Iran to Catherine
   Ashton, the EU high representative for foreign affairs and security
   policy, and to IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano. These two messages
   represent a new Iranian line based on a commitment to resume negotiations
   over its nuclear project.

   This state of uncertainty proves to those who follow Iranian affairs that
   the sanctions have started to bite deep in Persia. In fact, the strike
   waged by tradesmen in Tehran late last August (as published) was one of
   the emerging signs of the impact of the international blockade. More such
   signs are expected to appear in the next few months, exposing the silence
   and blackout of the Iranian media,

   The Government of Iran can bear many forms of foreign pressure , except
   those related to a military action. It has a considerable and wide
   experience in facing up to international pressure in view of the enormous
   efforts it has been exerting since 1979 to assert its presence on the
   international diplomatic map. However, the Iranian Government is very week
   in confronting domestic pressure in any form and from any source. Even
   though it has succeeded in running and hiding to overcome the pressure
   following the 2009 election, it will not be able to resist if this
   pressure is accompanied by that of the merchants who, in fact, are the
   most influential group after the clerics.

   Thus, Tehran has to look for a lifeline in this stormy sea of events, and
   this is why its call for reconciliation with Riyadh is only a "temporary"
   tactic that accords with the present stage. This is because it knows, and
   this is a third assumption concerning Larijani's statements, that Riyadh's
   influence in Washington can contribute first to the dr opping of the plans
   of the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, and then the lifting of
   the economic and military blockade at a second stage. The Iranians believe
   in political pragmatism; thus, there is no harm for them in becoming
   "pragmatist" in order to maintain their political-religious revolution.
   However, in turn, the Saudis can resurrect history and recall the stage of
   rapprochement between Tehran and Riyadh early in the nineties of the last
   century. But then this rapprochement collapsed and it did not succeed in
   making the Iranians forget what happened to their pilgrims in 1987, even
   if they feign to forget it. Now, here is pragmatist Larijani himself
   saying in a recent statement that the killing of the Iranian pilgrims in
   Mecca will never be out of the minds of the Iranian people. This is at a
   time when the Saudis have forgotten that stage and the subsequent
   tragedies left by the Iranians in Mecca, and considered opening a new page
   of relations w ith Tehran.

   The Saudis are now fully aware of Iran's behavior, and this is why I
   believe that this sort of statement is futile at this moment, and that it
   does not have any more supporters in Saudi Arabia.

   The first assumption concerning Larijani's statement, which is Iran has
   realized that it is rowing against the tide in its relations with Saudi
   Arabia in the end, requires Riyadh to put on the table a raft of demands
   before accepting to shake the hand of Iran on the way to model-type, clean
   relations. The first of these demands is stopping offering support to
   Hizballah with money and arms, and considering that domestic Lebanese
   affairs concern the Lebanese alone. This is in addition to an apology from
   Larijani himself for a previous statement in which he said that: "Iran is
   proud of supporting Hizballah, and considers it to be a considerable power
   upholding an authentic aspect of Islamic thinking, namely jihad!" Iran
   should do this; otherwise, it should just imagine a Sunni Lebanese trend
   offering material and military aid to rebel Sunni groups to the west and
   east of Iran, under the pretext that they uphold an aspect of authentic
   Islamic thinking, namely jihad! There is no harm also in Iran just
   imagining a group of Lebanese Maronites offering support for the Persian
   Christian minority to help them retrieve a small amount of the roles they
   lost in the desert of the Khomeynist revolution!

   The second demand is that Iran should declare that the Huthists in Yemen
   are nothing but a rebel, unlawful, and illegal group. It should also
   apologize for Larijani's statements made against Saudi Arabia a month ago,
   in which he claimed that the latter is crushing Muslim Huthists in Yemen.
   Iran should do this; otherwise, it should just imagine the Yemeni
   Government making successive statements about the injustice besetting the
   Baluch and the Arabs of the Ahwaz in Iran!

   The third demand is that Iran should not inter fere in the formation of a
   new government in Iraq, and stop bolstering certain parties that that do
   not wish the Iraqi people well. It should also allow all the Iraqi blocs
   and groups to compete in the country in a free and responsible manner.

   The fourth demand is that Iran should return to the UAE the three Emirati
   Tunbs islands or agree to the arbitration of the International Court of
   Justice.

   The fifth demand is that Iran should give guarantees to strengthen the
   trust of Riyadh that the Iranian nuclear program is completely devoted to
   peaceful purposes.

   Accepting to examine these five demands and then finding solutions for
   them will prove that the Iranians have "good faith," as Larijani said in
   his new courting statement. Otherwise, this will lead us to the second
   assumption, to the effect that Tehran wants to guide Riyadh to the right
   path! This will then be enough for me to conclude my article.

   (Description of Source: London Al-H ayah Online in Arabic -- Website of
   influential Saudi-owned London pan-Arab daily. URL:
   http://www.daralhayat.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   14) Back to Top
   Iraqi Kurdish Arabic Press 11 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from two Baghdad-based Kurdish
   newspapers on 11 Aug. To request additional processing, please call OSC at
   (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735, or fax (703) 613-5735. - Iraq -- OSC
   Summary
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 17:46:10 GMT
   http://taakhinews.org/ http://taakhinews.org )

   --Al-Ta'akhi 60-word report citing Sami Shorish, member of the Kurdistan
   Blocs Coalit ion, as saying that his coalition's negotiating team came to
   Baghdad to engage in more serious and in-depth talks with the other
   political blocs.

   --Al-Ta'akhi 70-word report citing Firyad Rawanduzi, member of the
   Kurdistan Blocs Coalition, as saying that the religious authority might be
   able to resolve differences within the "Shiite House," which precluded an
   agreement between the SLC and the Iraqi National Alliance (INA) on a
   single candidate for the post of prime minister.

   --Al-Ta'akhi 400-word report citing Haydar al-Suwaydi, MP for the INA, as
   saying that MPs should work for the dissolution of parliament and for
   conducting a repeat election to end the current political stalemate. He
   added: The solution lies in forming a national salvation government that
   should remain in office for only nine months. A repeat election will
   produce a big bloc that would be assigned the task of forming the new
   government, he maintained. Al-Suwaydi expected the curren t situation to
   remain unchanged in the coming months.

   --Al-Ittihad 1,300-word report citing a media source at the US Embassy in
   Baghdad who preferred to remain anonymous as saying that Washington does
   not support any candidate for the post of prime minister to the detriment
   of others, and that it seeks a national government in which no Iraqi
   political component is marginalized. The source added: Some Iraqi
   politicians mistakenly believe that Washington supports a second term in
   office for incumbent Premier Al-Maliki to Iyad Allawi's detriment. SLC
   member Izzat al-Shabandar said that the deadline the INA gave for the SLC
   to replace its candidate for the post of prime minister is meant to bring
   about the disintegration of the National Alliance so that the INA may
   enter into an alliance with the Al-Iraqiyah List and allow the latter to
   head the next government. Al-Iraqiyah List member Muhammad Allawi said
   that his list will not participate in a government that is headed by
   incumbent Premier Al-Maliki. He added that the Al-Iraqiyah List's talks
   with the SLC have not thus far produced any positive results, and that the
   talks have been deadlocked due to Al-Maliki's insistence on heading the
   next government. Allawi maintained that the INA informed the Al-Iraqiyah
   List that it will not be part of any government headed by SLC leader
   Al-Maliki. (Description of source: Baghdad Al-Ittihad Online in Arabic -
   Website of Al-Ittihad, daily newspaper published by the Iraqi Patriotic
   Union of Kurdistan, PUK; URL:

   http://www.alittihad.com/ http://www.alittihad.com )

   --Al-Ta'akhi 200-word report citing Al-Iraqiyah List member Jamal
   al-Battikh as warning that a quick US troop pullout from Iraq will result
   in a security deterioration across the country. He added that the
   political blocs prevented the Al-Iraqiyah List from forming the new
   government.

   --Al-Ta'akhi 180-word report citing Al-Iraqiyah List member Aliyah
   Nusayyif as saying that the international community and the United States
   support a second term in offi ce for incumbent Premier Al-Maliki.
   Meanwhile, the INA and the Al-Iraqiyah List are opposed to this, he added.

   --Al-Ta'akhi 130-word report citing SLC member Haydar al-Jurani as saying
   that the SLC wants the National Alliance to be a cohesive entity. Salman
   al-Jamili, key leader of the Al-Iraqiyah List, said that there is a real
   chance of cooperation between the Al-Iraqiyah List and the INA to form the
   next government. He added: The INA is more realistic than other political
   forces, especially the SLC, for it believes in partnership and in the
   peaceful exchange of authority.

   --Al-Ta'akhi 120-word report citing Al-Iraqiyah List member Arshad
   al-Salihi as saying that he is optimistic that the Kurdish negotiating
   team's working paper will bring about a breakthrough, which would help
   resolve the standoff over the formation of the new government. It is worth
   noting that the Kurdish nego tiating team arrived in Baghdad yesterday for
   talks with the political blocs on a working paper it drafted two days
   after the recent talks held between Premier Al-Maliki and Kurdistan Region
   President Mas'ud Barzani in Arbil. Miscellaneous Reports

   --Al-Ta'akhi 250-word report citing new Iranian Ambassador to Iraq Hasan
   Dana'ifar as saying that Iran is not interfering in Iraqi domestic affairs
   in a manner that would destabilize Iraq. He was referring to US statements
   that accused Iran of interfering in Iraqi domestic affairs. Dana'ifar
   added: We condemn these statements. We have the right to file lawsuits
   against those making these accusations at international courts.

   --Al-Ta'akhi 230-word report citing Qasim Alwan, a Basra-based political
   analyst, as saying that the timing of the current US troop withdrawal from
   Iraq is inappropriate.

   --Al-Ittihad 900-word report citing a news conference held by new Iranian
   Ambassador to Iraq Hasan Dana'ifar at which he said that the international
   sanctions clamped on Iran will not negatively impact economic ties between
   Baghdad and Tehran. He regarded the smuggling operations carried out
   between northern Iraq and Iran an Iraqi domestic affair, noting that Iran
   does not need oil derivatives.

   --Al-Ittihad 230-word report citing Iraqi Government Spokesman Ali
   al-Dabbagh as saying that the cabinet approved the opening of two US
   consulates in the Arbil and Basra governorates.

   --Al-Ittihad 1,000-word report citing Kaka Rash Siddiq, head of the Kirkuk
   Office of the Committee on the Implementation of Article 140 of the
   Constitution, as saying that 600 families evicted from Kirkuk during the
   era of the defunct regime will receive their compensation checks in the
   coming days. Kirkuk Governor Abd-al-Rahman Mustafa received a delegation
   of FRIATEC, a German supplier of pipes. He also received several officials
   of the Kirkuk Chamber of Commerce. Press Commentaries

   --In a 450-word e ditorial in Al-Ittihad, Deputy Chief Editor Abd-al-Hadi
   Mahdi says: The Kurdish stand on the political efforts currently under way
   to form the new government is being misunderstood once again. Just like
   the other entities which have their own stands and demands, the Kurdistan
   Blocs Coalition has its own stands and demands. Asking for the
   implementation of constitutional provisions does not mean blackmailing
   others or seizing an opportunity to make gains. Since the drafting of the
   permanent Iraqi Constitution, the Kurds have been insisting on the
   implementation of Article 140, which does not only apply to Kurdistan, but
   to the rest of Iraq as well. However, the efforts made regarding the
   implementation of this article were lacking in good faith. To avert what
   happened in the past, the Kurdish negotiating team is demanding the
   implementation of this article. The question is: Why are others afraid of
   the implementation of this constitutional provision, which offers a clear
   road map for a solution to the problem pertaining to disputed areas? This
   article was meant to return things back to normal. It is puzzling that
   many politicians are s aying that Article 140 has been rendered null and
   void. This is indicative of ignorance of the law. Compliance with the
   constitution cannot be selective. Premier Al-Maliki should not be
   criticized for saying, during his recent visit to Arbil, that Article 140
   is unstoppable because it is a constitutional provision. Rather, he should
   be supported. This is because if this article is implemented properly,
   many outstanding issues will be resolved. But it remains to be said that
   the demands of the Kurdistan Blocs Coalition are not exclusively confined
   to the implementation of this article. For there is a host of other
   demands that the Kurds want to be met. Once these demands are met, it will
   be easy to resolve the current crisis.

   --In a 700-word article in Al-Ittihad, Sati Raji says: The United Nations
   Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) submitted a report to the UN Security
   Council (UNSC) containing a comprehensive assessment of the situation in
   Iraq. The importance of the report lies in the fact that it was compiled
   by a neutral body, which renders the report highly valuable. The report
   made a long list of the failures of the Iraqi state. It pinpointed the
   failures and setbacks of the Iraqi state. The report said that Iraq failed
   to honor its obligations to Kuwait, which torpedoes Iraq's demand for a
   release from the mandate of Chapter VII of the UN Charter. This is major
   Iraqi policy failure. Besides, the report said that the US troop
   withdrawal raises concern over the safety of UNAMI personnel, which sends
   a negative signal to the countries that want to open embassies in Baghdad,
   and to the firms that want to make investments in Iraq as well.
   Furthermore, the report explicitly mentioned the security situation, which
   is yet to be stabilized, as well as the continued terrorist att acks and
   assassinations. The report noted that minorities in Iraq have continued to
   experience harassment and acts of violence. Furthermore, it noted the
   deterioration in basic services, particularly electricity, as well as the
   problems pertaining to disputed areas and outstanding issues between the
   federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). The UNAMI
   report revealed that the process of building the new Iraqi state stopped
   at a certain phase, and that outstanding issues are yet to be resolved.
   The report has failed to elicit any government response, and the
   government's talk regarding the need to remove Iraq from the mandate of
   Chapter VII of the UN Charter has evaporated into thin air. The report has
   removed from circulation the sweet words used to paint a rosy picture of
   the situation in Iraq. The report is objective, and that is why no
   government agency has dared to question either its content or the
   intentions of those who drafted it.

   --In a 2 ,500-word article in Al-Ta'akhi, Mundhir al-Fadl says: On 6
   August, the US State Department issued a list of 44 terrorist groups and
   organizations. Most of them were Islamic bodies, including HAMAS, the
   criminal Al-Qa'ida Organization, and Ansar al-Islam. The list also
   included the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), an organization that is
   engaged in a fight for the freedom of the Kurdish people suffering Turkish
   Government persecution. Meanwhile, the US State Department failed to put
   some terrorist groups and organization on its list, including the Arab
   Socialist Ba'th Party, whose members can be likened to German Nazis. This
   shows clear disparities in US standards. Besides, this is reflective of
   the absence of an internationally acceptable definition of terrorism.
   Moreover, the US State Department list failed to mention the state
   sponsors of terrorism, such as Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. Ba'thists
   have carried out a long list of criminal and terrorist attacks in Iraq.
   That said, one wonders why the State Department failed to put the Ba'th
   Party on its list of terrorist groups and organizations. This is
   indicative of double standards.

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   15) Back to Top
   Iraqi Press 11 August 10
   The following lists selected items from the Iraqi press on 11 August. To
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735. - Iraq -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 15:18:23 GMT
   following issues: I. CONTACTS TO FORM NEW ALLIANCES

   Dar al-Salam on 10 August publishes on page 2 a 900-word repo rt citing
   Muhammad Iqbal, parliament member for the Iraqi Al-Tawafuq Front, as
   holding the leaders of the winning parliamentary blocs, who refuse to give
   mutual concessions, responsible for the delay in the formation of the new
   government five months after the parliamentary elections. The report cites
   senior Al-Iraqiyah List Leader Salah al-Juburi as holding the State of Law
   Coalition and Iraqi National Alliance responsible for the delay in the
   formation of the new government and urging them to recognize the list's
   constitutional right to form the new government.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on the front page and on page 2 a 1,000-word
   report by Ali al-Tayyar on the study the Washington Institute for Near
   East Policy, WINEP, published recently on the horizon of forming the new
   Iraqi government during the holy month of Ramadan. The study predicts that
   the Iraqi political forces would reach a deal based on the reduction of
   powers given to the prime minister and the forma tion of the National
   Security Council.

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on the front page a 700-word report citing
   President Talabani as emphasizing the importance of forming a national
   partnership government. The report cites senior Kurdistan Coalition Leader
   Mahmud Uthman as saying that the Kurdish negotiating team arrived in
   Baghdad yesterday, 10 August, to hold detailed negotiations with the
   winning political forces on the distribution of the senior positions in
   the new government.

   Al-Mu'tamar publishes on page 3 a 150-word report entitled "Al-Fadilah
   Party: Party Will Not Join Opposition If Iraqi National Alliance Refuses
   To Participate in New Government."

   Al-Mu'tamar publishes on page 3 a 300-word report entitled "Muhammad
   Allawi: Al-Iraqiyah List Insists on Forming New Government, State of Law
   Coalition Will Eventually Accept Position of Political Council for
   National Security.

   Al-Mu'tamar publishes on page 3 a 320-word report entitl ed "Al-Damaluji:
   Kurdistan Coalition Demands Al-Maliki Reach Agreement With Al-Iraqiyah
   List, Iraqi National Alliance."

   Al-Mu'tamar publishes on page 3 a 300-word report entitled "Iyad Allawi:
   Al-Iraqiyah List Rejects Concept of Power Sharing With Any Party, List
   Seeks To Form New Government."

   Al-Alam publishes on the front page and on page 2 a 1,000-word report
   citing Izzat al-Shabandar, senior State of Law Coalition leader, as
   playing down the importance of the Iraqi National Alliance's recent
   ultimatum pertaining to the nomination of another candidate for the next
   prime minister's post by yesterday, 10 August. The report cites senior
   IISC Leader Jalal al-Din al-Saghir yesterday as saying that if the State
   of Law Coalition and Al-Iraqiyah List coalition reach an agreement on the
   formation of the new government, the alliance may join the opposition.

   Al-Alam publishes on page 2 a 2,300-word interview with Vice President
   Tariq al-Hashi mi on the latest political and security developments in
   Iraq and the ongoing negotiations between the Al-Iraqiyah List and other
   parliamentary blocs on the formation of the new government.

   Al-Muwatin on 10 August publishes on the front page a 240-word report
   citing Manal Finjan, member of the Iraqi National Alliance, as saying that
   Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, during his visit to the Kurdistan Region,
   gave assurances to the Kurds to meet their demands in return for
   supporting Al-Maliki. The report also cites Aliyah Nussayyif, member of
   the Al-Iraqiyah List, as saying that the list does not acknowledge any
   meeting between the political blocs that ignores the right of the list to
   form the next government.

   Al-Muwatin on 10 August publishes on the front page a 390-word report
   citing Ma ysun al-Damaluji, member of the Al-Iraqiyah List, as saying that
   the list has been frustrated by the State of Law Coalition's response to
   the working paper that the list presented to the coalition, and affirming
   that the list would not abandon its constitutional right to assume the
   post of prime minister in the next government. The report also cites
   Muhsin al-Sa'dun, member of the Kurdistan Coalition, as expecting the
   political blocs to reach an agreement on the distribution of the senior
   posts with the aim of forming the next government. Al-Sa'dun added that
   the foreign and internal pressures, as well as the deterioration of the
   security situation, make it incumbent upon the political blocs to settle
   this issue next week.

   Al-Muwatin on 10 August publishes on the front page a 240-word report
   citing Adnan al-Sarraj, member of the State of Law Coalition, as saying
   that the list will not leave the National Coalition. Al-Sarraj added that
   the rejection of the nomination of the coalition's candidate for the prime
   minister's post is considered interference in the coalition's affairs.

   Al-Muwatin on 10 August publishes on the front page a 140-wo rd report on
   the statement the Kurdistan Region's Presidency issued saying that Kurdish
   President Mas'ud Barzani, the British ambassador to Iraq and the British
   consul in the region held a meeting at the Salah-al-Din Resort in Arbil
   during which they discussed the latest political and security developments
   in Iraq and the ongoing negotiations between the political blocs on the
   formation of the next Iraqi Government. They also discussed ways of
   promoting bilateral relations between the region and Britain in all
   fields, especially the investment sector.

   Al-Muwatin on 10 August publishes on page 2 a 180-word report citing
   Shaykh Hamid Mu'allah, member of the Iraqi National Alliance from the
   Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council, as saying that the alliance still insists
   on its demand that the State of Law Coalition nominate another candidate
   instead of outgoing Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki for the post of the next
   prime minister.

   Al-Muwatin on 10 August publishes on page 3 a 210-word report on the
   statement the Iraqi Woman Movement issued calling on the parliament
   members to pressure their leaders in order to hold a parliamentary session
   with the aim of settling the issue of distributing the senior posts and
   the formation of the next government or hold reelections if they fail to
   settle this issue.

   Al-Da'wah on 10 August publishes on the front page a 180-word report
   citing Muhammad Sa'dun al-Sayhud, member of the State of Law Coalition, as
   saying that a number of former parliament members are obstructing the
   formation of the next government.

   Al-Da'wah on 10 August publishes on page 2 a 720-word report citing
   Kurdish President Mas'ud Barzani as denying that the US delegation that
   recently visited the Kurdistan Region had called on the Kurds to give
   concessions with the aim of quickly forming the next government. The
   report also cites Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki as affirming that the
   withdrawal of the US forces from Iraq and t he delay in the formation of
   the next government will not affect the security situation in the country.

   Al-Bayan on 10 August publishes on the front page a 280-word report citing
   a number of politicians and observers as saying that Prime Minister Nuri
   al-Maliki's visit to the Kurdistan Region has given new impetus to the
   negotiations on the formation of the next government.

   Al-Sabah carries on page 3 a 550-word report citing Ruz Nuri Shawis,
   deputy prime minister and chairman of the Kurdish delegation that is
   entrusted with holding negotiations with the political blocs, as saying
   that the meeting between Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and Kurdish
   President Mas'ud Barzani brought about a major approximation between the
   two parties. The report also cites Mahmud Uthman, member of the Kurdistan
   Coalition, as saying that the coalition will hold decisive mee tings with
   the other political blocs in the next few days. The report also cites the
   Iraqi Islamic Party as cal ling on the political blocs to reconsider their
   stances and give concessions in order to quickly form the next government.

   Al-Adalah publishes on the front page a 360-word report citing Mahmud
   Uthman, member of the Kurdistan Coalition, as saying that the Kurdistan
   Coalition will hold decisive meetings with the other political blocs in
   the next few days. The report also cites Baha al-A'raji, member of the
   Iraqi National Alliance, as saying that the alliance has started holding
   negotiations with the Al-Iraqiyah List and will start holding talks with
   the Kurdistan Coalition next week with the aim of forming the next
   government. He added that the alliance is waiting for the State of Law
   Coalition to nominate another candidate instead of Prime Minister Nuri
   al-Maliki for the post of the next prime minister. Al-A'raji affirmed that
   the alliance would ally with the list and Kurdistan Coalition to form the
   next government if the State of Law Coalition insisted on nominating A
   l-Maliki for a second term. The report also cites Salman al-Jumayli,
   member of the list, as saying that there is a real opportunity to
   cooperate with the alliance in order to form this government. The report
   also cites Sa'd al-Muttalibi, member of the State of Law Coalition, as
   saying that the meeting that was held between Prime Minister Nuri
   al-Maliki and Kurdish President Mas'ud Barzani in Arbil was fruitful.

   Al-Adalah publishes on the front page a 210-word report saying that Vice
   President Adil Abd-al-Mahdi and a delegation from the Al-Iraqiyah List
   held a meeting during which they discussed the latest political
   developments in the Iraqi political arena, including the formation of the
   next government. During the meeting, Abd-al-Mahdi stressed the importance
   of respecting the constitution.

   Al-Adalah publishes on the front page a 200-word report saying that Sayyid
   Ammar al-Hakim, chairman of the Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council, and Ruz
   Nuri Shawis, deputy prime minister and member of the Kurdistan Coalition,
   held a meeting during which they discussed the issue of the formation of
   the next Iraqi Government and the results of Prime minister Nuri
   al-Maliki's visit to the Kurdistan Region.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 3 a 780-word report saying that Vice President
   Adil Abd-al-Mahdi and the new Iranian ambassador to Iraq held a meeting
   during which they discussed ways of promoting bilateral relations between
   the two countries in all fields. The report also cites the Iranian
   ambassador, during a press conference at the Iranian Embassy's
   headquarters in Baghdad, as saying that Iran supports the formation of the
   next Iraqi Government in which all the Iraqi components and political
   blocs would participate, and denying the US officials' accusations that
   Iran supports the armed militias in Iraq. The Iranian ambassador condemned
   all the criminal attacks that have targeted the Iraqi citizens.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 3 a 670-wor d report citing Maha al-Duri,
   parliament member for the Iraqi National Alliance from the Al-Ahrar Bloc,
   as saying that the suspension of the talks with the State of Law Coalition
   has not affected its negotiations with the other political blocs. The
   report also cites Khalid al-Asadi, member of the coalition, as calling on
   the alliance to quickly nominate its candidate for the post of prime
   minister in the next government. The report also cites Muhammad Mashkur,
   member of the alliance from the Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council, as saying
   that the alliance will hold a meeting soon to discuss the coalition's
   insistence on nominating Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki for a second term.
   The report also cites Muhammad al-Bahadili, member of the alliance from
   the Al-Ahrar Bloc, as saying that the alliance is seeking to form a
   government in which all the political blocs would participate.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 3 a 220-word report citing Muhammad Allawi,
   member of the Al-Iraqiyah List, as saying that the list insists on
   assuming the post of prime minister in the next government. Allawi added
   that the State of Law Coalition would accept the post of the chairman of
   the Political Council for National Security.

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 2 a 300-word report citing Muhammad Allawi,
   leader in the Al-Iraqiyah List, as saying that the list is strong and does
   not suffer from any kind of controversies like the other lists. The report
   cites Mahmud Uthman, leader in the Kurdistan Coalition, as saying that the
   coalition does not object to any candidate for the post of the prime
   minister. The report cites Ala Talabani, member in the coalition, as
   saying that the Kurdish factions would vote for Nuri al-Maliki in order to
   settle the current political crisis in the country.

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 5 a 100-word report citing Ali al-Khatib,
   deputy chairman of the Shiite Waqf Directorate, as calling on the
   religious authorities to intervene in the form ation of the next
   government and nominate a suitable candidate for the post of the prime
   minister.

   Al-Mada publishes on page 2 a 200-word report citing Deputy Prime Minister
   Ruz Nuri Shawis as saying that the meeting between Prime Minister Nuri
   al-Maliki and Kurdish President Mas'ud Barzani was useful because it
   brought the State of Law Coalition and Kurdistan Coalition closer.

   Al-Mada publishes on page 4 a 500-word report entitled "Female Activists,
   Civil Society Organizations in Dhi Qar Governorate Call for Speeding up
   Formation of Government."

   Baghdad on 10 August publishes on the front page a 100-word report saying
   that the Coordination Committee of the Al-Iraqiyah List held a meeting to
   discuss the latest developments in the political situation and the
   negotiations to form the next government.

   Al-Bayyinah on 10 August publishes on the front page a 300-word report
   citing Shaykh Sabah al-Sa'idi, leader in the Iraqi National Alliance, as
   saying that Nuri al-Maliki is ready to do everything in his power and give
   up the principles and values in order to stay in the post of the prime
   minister.

   Al-Bayyinah on 10 August publishes on the front page citing Basim
   al-Awadi, media adviser of Ammar al-Hakim, chairman of the Iraqi Islamic
   Supreme Council, as saying that Nuri al-Maliki has won the support of the
   United States and a regional country to stay in power.

   Al-Bayyinah on 10 August publishes on page 2 a 500-word report citing Vice
   President Tariq al-Hashimi as saying that the United States is exerting
   pressure on the Al-Iraqiyah List to keep Nuri al-Maliki in his post as a
   prime minister for another term and that the list refuses to give up its
   constitutional right to form the next government.

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 10 August publishes on the front page a 150-word
   report saying that a heated debate erupted among the members of the
   Islamic Da'wah Party as some of the members reject the insistence on
   giving the post of prime minister to Nuri al-Maliki. The report adds that
   Oil Minister Husayn al-Shahristani might split from the State of Law
   Coalition and join the Iraqi National Alliance.

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 10 August publishes on page 2 a 100-word report
   citing Mahmud Uthman, leader in the Kurdistan Coalition, as saying that
   the religious authorities in the Al-Najaf Governorate can solve the
   political crisis in the country if they end the tension between the two
   main components of the National Alliance. II. REACTIONS TO MERGER OF STATE
   OF LAW COALITION, IRAQI NATIONAL ALLIANCE

   Dar al-Salam on 10 August publishes on the front page a 360-word report
   citing Ali al-Allaq, senior State of Law Coalition leader, as saying that
   the coalition refuses to nominate another candidate for the next prime
   minister's post. The report cites observers as predicting the collapse of
   the Iraqi National Coalition due to the ongoing dispute between the State
   of Law Coalition and Iraqi National Alliance over the nomination of the
   next prime minister.

   Al-Mu'tamar publishes on the front page a 200-word report citing Haydar
   al-Jurani, senior State of Law Coalition leader, as saying that that the
   coalition wants to maintain the Iraqi National Coalition's coherence.

   Al-Mu'tamar publishes on the front page a 300-word report citing Amir
   Thamir, parliament member for the Iraqi National Alliance, as predicting
   that the alliance and State of Law Coalition would resolve their disputes
   and nominate a candidate for the next prime minister's post.

   Al-Adalah publishes on the front page a 110-word report citing Shaykh
   Hamid Mu'allah, member of the Iraqi National Alliance, as saying that the
   resumption of the negotiations with the State of Law Coalition would
   depend on nominating another candidate for the post of prime minister
   instead of outgoing Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki by the coalition. III.
   POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS AND C OMMENTS

   Dar al-Salam on 10 August publishes on the front page a 500-word report on
   the statement the Iraqi Islamic Party issued on 9 August, urging the rival
   political forces and leaders to put the interests of the Iraqi people
   before their personal interests and to give mutual concessions in order to
   quickly form the new government. The statement expresses concern over the
   recent terrorist attacks in Baghdad and other governorates and warns of
   the dangerous consequences of the current political and constitutional
   vacuum on the security situation in the country. The report says that
   under the patronage of Party Chairman Dr Usamah al-Tikriti, the party
   organized celebrations in the Al-Fallujah District to mark its 50th
   anniversary.

   Dar al-Salam on 10 August publishes on the front page a 100-word report
   entitled "Adil Abd-al-Mahdi Strongly Criticizes Al-Maliki, Confirms:
   Al-Maliki's Government Is De Facto Government."

   Dar al-Salam on 10 August pu blishes on the front page a 120-word report
   citing an official source at the Kurdish Awqaf Ministry as saying that the
   Kurdish Crescent Monitoring Committee, in cooperation with the Sunni Waqf,
   will meet in Arbil on 10 August, to announce the first day of the holy
   month of Ramadan.

   Dar al-Salam on 10 August publishes on the front page a 400-word report
   citing Muhammad Mahdi al-Bayyati, senior member of the Iraqi Islamic
   Supreme Council, IISC, as strongly criticizing outgoing Prime Minister
   Nuri al-Maliki for giving concessions pertaining to the implementation of
   Article 140 of the Constitution to the Kurdish leadership during his
   recent visit to Arbil.

   Dar al-Salam on 10 August publishes on the front page a 340-word editorial
   by the newspaper's chief editor attributing the recent security breaches
   in Baghdad and other governorates to the delay in the formation of the new
   government.

   Dar al-Salam on 10 August publishes on page 2 a 760-word report citing I
   mad Ahmad, member of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan's Political Bureau,
   as denying his party's involvement in the export of oil to Iran.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on the front page a 400-word report citing
   General Ralph Baker, deputy commander of the US forces in Iraq, as
   affirming the withdrawal of 15,000 US troops from Iraq before 1 September,
   in compliance with the US-Iraqi security agreement.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on the front page a 400-word report citing
   Cabinet's Secretary General Ali al-Allaq as describing Prime Minister Nuri
   al-Maliki's recent decision to give Transport Minister Amir Abd-al-Jabbar
   a compulsory leave as legal and constitutional. Al-Allaq denies that
   Abd-al-Jabbar had refused to sign contracts with two airline companies
   owned by former Kurdish Premier Nijarvan Barzani in compliance with
   Al-Maliki's instructions.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on the front page a 500-word editorial by
   Chief Editor Isma'il Zayyir commenting o n new Iranian Ambassador to Iraq
   Hasan Dana'ifar's statements during his first news conference in Baghdad
   saying that his country is planning to file lawsuits against the US Army
   commanders in Iraq for holding Iran responsible for the recent terrorist
   attacks in Iraq and demanding war reparations.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on the front page and on page 3 a 760-word
   report by Ali al-Tayyar entitled "US Congress Suspends Military Assistance
   to Lebanese Army Over Suspected Ties with Hizballah."

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 2 a 600-word report citing observers
   from the Diyala Governorate as warning of the implications of the ongoing
   disputes between the Al-Iraqiyah List and Iraqi Islamic Party over the
   senior positions in the local government on the security situation in the
   governorate. The report says that the list and State of Law Coalition have
   reached an agreement to replace the governor.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 5 a 300-wo rd report entitled
   "Talabani Congratulates Muslims on Holy Month of Ramadan, Calls for
   Formation of New Government."

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 5 a 500-word report entitled "Cabinet
   Endorses Inauguration of Two US Consulates in Basra, Arbil."

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 2 a 400-word report entitled "Women's
   Organizations in Dhi Qar Call for Resolving Current Political Crisis in
   Country."

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 3 an 800-word report on the news
   conference new Iranian Ambassador to Iraq Hasan Dana'ifar held in Baghdad
   yesterday, 10 August. Dana'ifar denies his government's interference in
   the formation of the new government and the nomination of the new prime
   minister.

   Al-Mu'tamar publishes on the front page a 500-word report strongly
   criticizing the Algerian and other Arab presidents for their recent
   statements saying that they will not attend the upcoming Arab summit that
   will be held in Baghdad in March 2011 if the US forces have not withdrawn
   from the country by then.

   Al-Mu'tamar publishes on the front page a 300-word report citing an
   official source at the cabinet secretary general's office as affirming
   that the cabinet instructed the ministries and state institutions to ban
   public breakfasting during the holy month of Ramadan.

   Al-Mu'tamar devotes part of the front page and all of page 4 to a report a
   300-word report on the news conference new Iranian Ambassador to Iraq
   Hasan Dana'ifar held in Baghdad yesterday, 10 August.

   Al-Mashriq publishes on the front page a 370-word editorial by Dr Hamid
   Abdallah condemning the recent attacks that targeted a number of traffic
   police officers and wardens in Baghdad.

   Al-Alam publishes on the front page and on page 3 a 1,200-word report
   citing Jasim al-Sa'idi, chairman of the Baghdad Governorate Council's
   Services Committee, yesterday, 10 August, as saying that the local
   government cannot expose th e local companies that violated their
   contractual obligations because they are affiliated with senior officials
   in the government. The report cites former Parliament Member Bushra
   al-Kinani as affirming that the parliament has not been able to follow up
   the widespread corruption in the implementation of strategic projects in
   the country.

   Al-Alam publishes on the front page a 100-word report entitled "Baghdad
   Rehabilitates Hotels in Preparation for Arab Summit."

   Al-Istiqamah on 10 August publishes on page 4 a 680-word report citing
   Sayyid Sadr-al-Din al-Qubbanji, official in charge of the Iraqi Islamic
   Supreme Council in the Al-Najaf Governorate, during his meeting with a
   number of journalists, as calling for endorsing the Journalists Protection
   Draft Law.

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 2 a 300-word report citing Iraqi Government
   Spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh as saying that the cabinet has endorsed the Iraqi
   Foreign Affairs Ministry's recommendation to o pen two US cons ulates in
   the Arbil and Basra Governorates.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 3 a 90-word report on the statement the office
   of Ibrahim al-Ja'fari, chairman of the National Reform Trend, issued
   saying that Al-Ja'fari arrived in Turkey and would hold meetings with the
   Turkish president and foreign minister to discuss ways of promoting
   bilateral relations between the two countries. (OSC plans no further
   processing)

   Al-Zaman publishes on the front page a 120-word report saying that the
   cabinet has endorsed the recommendation of the Foreign Ministry to open US
   consulates in the Arbil and Basra Governorates.

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 2 a 300-word report saying that Salah-al-Din
   Advisory Council Chairman Ahmad Abdallah Abd was conditionally released
   from prison and that he resumed his activities as council chairman. The
   report adds that members of the Diyala Advisory Council for the
   Al-Iraqiyah List and State of Law Coalition have suspended their me
   mbership in the council.

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 5 a 300-word report saying that the Iraqi
   Turkomans Front issued a statement in which it condemned the recent
   statements made by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki on Article 140 of the
   constitution and the situation in the Kirkuk Governorate.

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 2 a 200-word report citing the new Iranian
   ambassador to Iraq as saying that Iran encourages the Iraqi political
   factions to form the government as soon as possible and that it does not
   support any specific candidate or entity at the expense of the others.

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 10 August devotes all of page 5 to an interview
   with Al-Iraqiyah List Chairman Iyad Allawi which was broadcast on the
   Al-Iraqiyah Satellite Television Channel.

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 10 August devotes all of page 12 to a report on
   late Lebanese Religious Authority Ayatollah Muhammad Husayn Fadlallah.

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah devotes all of page 19 to a report entitled
   "Political Islam Does not Build Country, Establish Democratic State." IV.
   SECURITY AND MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS

   Dar al-Salam on 10 August publishes on page 3 a 250-word report citing
   Wasit Governorate Council Chairman Mahmud Abdallah Talal as saying that
   the Council's Security Committee held a meeting with the local councils to
   discuss the latest security developments in the governorate.

   Dar al-Salam on 10 August publishes on page 3 a 150-word report citing
   Ninawah Governor Athil al-Nujayfi as affirming plans to reduce the number
   of curfew hours in the governorate during the holy month of Ramadan.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 2 a 200-word report saying that the
   Al-Karkh Criminal Court sentenced a terrorist to death for his involvement
   in a number of terrorist attacks.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 2 a 100-word report saying that the
   Basra Criminal Court sentenced two terrorist to life imprisonment for
   their i nvolvement in a terrorist attack in the Hay al-Husayn District in
   Basra.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 2 a 100-word report citing an official
   source at the Al-Sadir Hotel in Baghdad as affirming that a small fire
   broke out at the hotel yesterday, 10 August.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 3 a 900-word report entitled
   "Explosion of Two Bombs Attached to Cars in Southern Baghdad; Katyusha
   Rocket Falls in Green Zone; Traffic Police Officer Escapes Assassination
   Attempt in Al-Tubji District; Awakening Council Leader Killed in Northern
   Babil Governorate."

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 5 a 700-word report by Imad al-Akhras
   entitled "Checkpoints Turn Ba'qubah into Large Prison."

   Al-Mu'tamar publishes on the front page a 130-word report entitled
   "Baghdad Operations Command Takes Measures To Combat Attacks Against
   Traffic Police Officers."

   Al-Mu'tamar publishes on page 3 a 200-word repor t entitled "Dh i Qar
   Police Chief: Directorate Allocates Five Billion Dinars To Install
   Surveillance Cameras in Al-Nasiriyah."

   Al-Mu'tamar publishes on page 3 a 100-word report entitled "Clashes Break
   out Between Police, Unidentified Insurgents in Southern Baghdad."

   Al-Mu'tamar publishes on page 3 a 300-word report entitled "Plan To
   Withdraw Traffic Police Officers, Wardens From Streets."

   Al-Da'wah on 10 August publishes on the front page a 190 word report
   citing Hana al-Ta'i, member of the Iraqi National Alliance, as saying that
   the number of terrorist acts in the country has dropped.

   Al-Da'wah on 10 August publishes on the front page a 90-word report citing
   Jinan al-Ibtisam, member of the State of Law Coalition from the Basra
   Governorate, as condemning the terrorist act that targeted the innocent
   civilians in the governorate, and calling on the local government to
   dismiss the Basra police director. (OSC plans no further processing)

   Al-Istiqamah on 10 August publishes on the front page a 300-word report
   citing Basim al-Awwadi, media adviser of the Iraqi Islamic Supreme
   Council, as saying that the de facto government is obliged to protect the
   citizens and provide them with the necessary public services. The report
   cites the Al-Sadr Trend's Political Commission as condemning the recent
   terrorist attacks that targeted the innocent citizens in the Basra
   Governorate.

   Al-Istiqamah on 10 August publishes on page 2 a 300-word report citing
   Hashim Lu'aybi, media director of the Basra Governorate Council, as saying
   that the council has decided to question Basra Police Commander Adil
   Dahham about the recent terrorist bombings and the dereliction of duty by
   the security forces in the governorate. The report also cites Ali Ghanim,
   chairman of the Security Committee at the Basra Governorate Council, as
   holding the police agencies responsible for the bombings.

   Al-Bayan on 10 August publishes on page 3 a 670-word report citing
   Interior Ministry Undersecretary Ahmad al-Khafaji as saying that the
   ministry has adopted new security measures to protect the traffic
   policemen from the terrorist attacks in the capital.

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 3 a 220-word report citing Vice President Tariq
   al-Hashimi as saying that the attempts by the terrorist groups to
   destabilize the security situation and undermine the security of the
   society demonstrate the failure of the foreign agendas to impose
   domination on the will of the Iraqi people.

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 4 a 90-word report citing the Higher Judicial
   Council as saying that the Al-Karkh Criminal Court has passed the death
   sentence against a person who was convicted of implementing terrorist
   acts. (OSC plans no further processing)

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 4 a 100-word report citing Dhi Qar Police
   Director Sabah al-Fatlawi as saying that the governorate has allocated
   five billion Iraqi dinars to install su rveillance cameras at a number of
   streets in the Al-Nasiriyah City. (OSC plans no further processing)

   Al-Sabah carries on page 4 a 350-word report citing security sources as
   saying that six persons, including a policeman, were killed and 24 others
   were injured in a number of terrorist operations that targeted the
   innocent citizens in several areas of Iraq. The report also cites a
   security source as saying that an Awakening Council leader was injured in
   an explosion that targeted his car in Al-Durah.

   Al-Adalah publishes on the front page a 190-word report citing the deputy
   commander of the US forces in Iraq, during a press conference at the Joint
   Media Center in the Green Zone, as saying that the US forces will withdraw
   15,000 soldiers from Iraq at the end of August according to the signed
   security agreement between the two countries.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 2 a 420-word follow-up report citing General
   Traffic Director Ja'far al-Khafaji as saying that the Interior Ministry,
   in cooperation with the Baghdad Operations Command, has prepared a plan to
   support and protect the traffic policemen. The report also cites Qasim
   Ata, spokesman of the command, as saying that the elements of the
   Al-Qa'ida Organization and Ba'th Party are targeting the patrols of the
   traffic police with the aim of creating chaos on the Iraqi streets.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 3 a 360-word report by the editor citing a
   police source as saying that a policeman was injured during clashes that
   erupted between a Federal Police patrol and a number of terrorists in the
   Jurf al-Sakhr Sub-District, south of the capital. The report also cites a
   police source in the Al-Musayyab District as saying that Jurf al-Sakhr
   Awakening Council's Commander Malik Yasin was assassinated and two of his
   bodyguards were injured when unidentified gunmen attacked his car. The
   report also cites Babil police source as saying that a citizen was injured
   in an explosion near a checkpoint in the Musayyab District, north of the
   governorate. The report also cites another police source as saying that
   two civilians were killed and 13 others were injured, including a number
   of policemen in two explosions west of the capital. The report also cites
   another police source as saying that a traffic officer escaped an
   assassination attempt in an explosion of a sticky explosive device that
   was planted in his car in the Al-Tubji Neighborhood in the
   capital.Al-Adalah publishes on page 4 a 730-word follow-up report
   commenting of the recent terrorist acts that have targeted the traffic
   policemen in the capital.

   Al-Zaman publishes on the front page a 60-word report saying that a
   traffic policeman survived as assassination attempt when an explosive
   device planted in his car was detonated in the Al-Tubji District in
   Baghdad.

   Al-Zaman publishes on the front page a 250-word report saying that the
   Al-Iraqiyah List issued a statement in which it condemned th e
   assassination attempt against Ninawah Governor Athil al-Nujayfi. The
   report cites Husam al-Azzawi, leader in the list, as saying that the
   security situation depends on the stability of the political system and
   the building of an institutional country.

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 2 a 200-word report saying that the security
   forces arrested the terrorist who hurled a hand grenade at a convoy,
   injuring nine people in the Mosul District in the Ninawah Governorate. The
   report adds that six people were injured when an explosive device
   targeting a convoy was detonated in Mosul.

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 4 a 300-word report citing Maytham Lafta
   al-Fartusi, chairman of the Health and Environment Committee in the Maysan
   Advisory Council, as calling on the international organizations to help in
   the removal of landmines in the governorate.

   Al-Mada publishes on the front page a 400-word report citing Haydar
   al-Jurani, leader in the State of Law Coalition, as saying that the Iraqi
   Army is able to handle the security responsibility after the withdrawal of
   the US forces and that it has achieved many things recently.

   Al-Mada devotes half of page 2 to a report on the recent clashes between
   the security forces and the terrorists in the Al-Saydiyah District in
   Baghdad.

   Al-Bayyinah on 10 August publishes on the front page a 200-word report
   citing Ali Muhsin al-Tamimi, parliament member for the Al-Sadr Trend, as
   saying that the senior posts in the security institutions are being sold
   to those who pay more and that while the security forces are not improving
   their performance, the terrorists are developing and improving their
   capacities.

   Al-Bayyinah on 10 August publishes on the front page a 300-word report
   citing a source as saying that pirates were able to launch attacks on
   three ships in the Iraqi territorial waters in the Arab Gulf and that they
   were able to rob these ships and escape. V. HEALTH AND HUMAN RIGHTS
   ISSUES&lt; br&gt;
   Dar al-Salam on 10 August publishes on page 3 a 230-word report entitled
   "Iraqi Islamic Party Organizes Monthly Meetings for Families of Martyrs in
   Baghdad."

   Dar al-Salam on 10 August publishes on page 3 a 300-word report entitled
   "Hit Youths Forum Organizes Training Course for Youths in District; CHF
   Organization Organizes Seminar To Help Poor, Displaced Families in
   Al-Ramadi in Al-Anbar Governorate."

   Dar al-Salam on 10 August publishes on page 3 a 550-word report citing
   Diyala Health Director Dr Ali Husayn al-Tamimi as affirming that the
   directorate held an expanded meeting to discuss the directorate's 2011
   budget. Al-Tamimi affirms the inauguration of three children's wards at
   the Al-Batul Educational Hospital in the governorate.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on the front page a 700-word report citing
   poor families from the Diyala Governorate as outlining their suffering due
   to the lack of jobs and services and high prices of fruits, vegetables,
   and other food items in the local markets.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on the front page a 170-word report citing
   Baghdad Governor Salah Abd-al-Razzaq as affirming the inclusion of
   foreigners, who have sustained damage due to terrorism or military
   operations, in the Baghdad local government's compensation program.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 4 a 600-word report saying that Dr
   Abd-al-Samad Rahman Sultan, minister of immigrants and displaced persons,
   met with delegations from the neighboring countries to discuss the
   situation of the Iraqi refugees residing in Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 4 a 400-word report citing Diyala
   Police Directorate Spokesman as saying that tribal disputes are
   responsible for 5 percent of the ongoing violence in the country. The
   report cites Mazin Habib al-Khayzaran, deputy chairman of the Diyala
   Governorate Council's Tribal and National Reconciliation Committee, as
   outl ining the committee's efforts to resolve the disputes between the
   Sunni and Shiite tribes in the governorate.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 5 a 500-word report citing an official
   source in the Dahuk Governorate as urging both the Kurdish and Iraqi
   Government to provide aircraft to fight the fire that broke out in the
   forest near the Zawitah Tourist Resort two days ago.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 5 a 200-word report on Kurdish Health
   Minister Dr Tahir Hurami's speech at the seminar that was organized in
   Arbil to discuss the Psychological Health Draft Law.

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 8 a 600-word report saying that the Iraqi
   Center for International Studies, in cooperation with the Ibn Rushud
   Education College, will organize the first international scientific
   conference on radioactive pollution in Iraq in Baghdad on 23-24 November.

   Al-Mashriq publishes on page 4 a 700-word report citing Baghdad Media
   Center Director Ali al-Khalid i as affirming the graduatio n of the first
   group of trainees from the center.

   Al-Mashriq publishes on page 4 a 400-word report entitled "Iraqi Families
   Prepare for Holy Month of Ramadan, Express Concern Over Increases in
   Prices of Food Items."

   Al-Mashriq publishes on page 4 a 260-word report entitled "Political
   Prisoners Establishment Distributes 10 Million Iraqi Dinars in Housing
   Grants to Former Political Prisoners Owning Residential Land Plots."

   Al-Mashriq publishes on page 4 a 300-word report entitled "Civil Society
   Organizations File lawsuit Against Temporary Parliament Speaker."

   Al-Muwatin on 10 August publishes on page 3 a 350-word report citing Nasir
   Karim Qasim, director of the Solar Energy Research Center of the Science
   and Technology Ministry, as saying that Iraq is suffering from a very
   severe environmental crisis.

   Al-Da'wah on 10 August publishes on page 2 a 155-word report citing a
   media source a t the Environment Ministry as saying that all the sites
   that the US forces in Iraq have handed over to the Iraqi Defense Ministry
   are free from toxic materials.

   Al-Bayan on 10 August publishes on page 2 a 500-word report citing acting
   Trade Minister Dr Safa-al-Din al-Safi as saying that the ministry has
   decided to distribute additional rationed food items to the families that
   receive the Social Protection Network allowances during the holy month of
   Ramadan.

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 5 a 140-word report citing Environment Minister
   Narmin Uthman as saying that the allocation of $20 billion is insufficient
   for solving the problem of desertification in the country.

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 5 a 270-word report citing an official source
   at the Health Ministry as saying that the ministry sent 207 patients
   abroad for treatment.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 4 a 180-word report on the statement the media
   office of Baghdad Governor Dr Salah Abd-al-Razzaq i ssued saying that the
   governorate will compensate the foreign victims of the terrorist attacks
   and military operations in the country.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 4 a 70-word report on the statement the
   Al-Najaf Governorate's media center issued saying that Al-Najaf Governor
   Adnan al-Zarfi inaugurated a diabetes treatment center at the Al-Sadr
   Hospital in the governorate at a cost of more than one billion Iraqi
   dinars. (OSC plans no further processing)

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 3 a 200-word report saying that 12 people have
   died of insect-born diseases in the marshlands in the Al-Khayrat District
   in the Karbala Governorate.

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 5 a 300-word report entitled "Experts: Iraq
   Witnessing Dangerous Environmental Crisis."

   Al-Mada publishes on the front page a 200-word report citing Immigrants
   and Displaced Persons Minister Abd-al-Samad Abd-al-Rahman Sultan as saying
   that the government is not arranging the return of the I raqi refugees to
   Iraq by force and that it is implementing programs to encourage them to
   return to the country. VI. ECONOMIC AND PUBLIC SERVICES ISSUES

   Dar al-Salam on 10 August publishes on page 2 a 500-word report citing
   citizens as outlining their suffering due to the hot weather and
   electricity crisis.

   Dar al-Salam on 10 August publishes on page 3 a 350-word report citing an
   official source at the Ninawah Agriculture Directorate as outlining the
   directorate's projects in the past two years.

   Dar al-Salam on 10 August publishes on page 3 a 400-word report saying
   that Dhi Qar Governor Talib Kazim al-Hasan met with the representatives of
   a Japanese oil company to discuss the development of the Al-Nasiriyah Oil
   Field.

   Dar al-Salam on 10 August publishes on page 3 a 300-word report on the
   Salah al-Din Governorate Council's 27th session that was presided over by
   acting Council Chairman Ammar Yusuf, which was devoted to discussing an
   offer subm itted by an investment company for the construction of 1,000
   residential units in the governorate.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 2 an 800-word report on the recent
   increase in the number of bottled water vendors on Baghdad's streets due
   to the hot weather and frequent traffic congestions.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 4 a 600-word report citing Al-Karkh
   Electricity Director Sabah Aqrab as outlining the directorate's activities
   and achievements.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 4 a 600-word report citing acting
   Trade Minister Safa al-Din al-Safi as outlining the ministry's efforts to
   provide the rationed food quotas during the holy month of Ramadan.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 4 a 400-word report on the recent
   increases in the prices of food items in Baghdad's markets prior to the
   holy month of Ramadan.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 4 a 600-word report on the
   celebrations the Al-Diwaniyah Education Directorate organize d to honor
   top students and the schools that achieved distinguished results in the
   last academic year.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 9 a 1,000-word part two of a
   three-part report by Dr Salam Sumaysim entitled "Stock Market, Economic
   Development."

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 4 a 200-word report citing an official
   source at the Electricity Ministry as affirming the linkage of the old and
   new Jamilah auxiliary power stations in Baghdad.

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 4 a 1,300-word report citing fishermen
   from the Basra Governorate as outlining their problems and demands.

   Tariq al-Sha'b devotes most of page 5 to public complaints.

   Al-Mashriq publishes on page 4 letter by the Electricity Ministry
   responding to articles published by the newspaper.

   Al-Mashriq publishes on page 4 a 250-word report citing an official source
   at the Higher Education and Scientific Research Ministry as saying that
   the ministry has decide d to transfer the assistant professors who failed
   to achieve scientific promotion six years after their appointment to other
   ministries.

   Al-Muwatin on 10 August publishes on page 5 a 210-word report citing
   Abd-al-Hadi Salman, an Iraqi economist, as saying that the Iraqi
   Government has failed to rehabilitate the industrial sector in the
   country.

   Al-Muwatin on 10 August publishes on page 5 a 170-word report citing an
   Iraqi economist as saying that the fires that broke out in the
   Al-Sulaymaniyah Governorate have negatively affected the tourism sector in
   the governorate.

   Al-Da'wah on 10 August publishes on the front page a 200-word report
   citing Dr Mahdi al-Allaq, chairman of the Central Agency for Statistics
   and Information Technology of the Planning and Development Cooperation
   Ministry, as saying that the population census is a technical and not a
   political issue.

   Al-Da'wah on 10 August publishes on page 4 a 100-word report citing Kamil
   al-Sa'di, Ba ghdad deputy governor for technical affairs, as saying that
   all the strategic projects in the capital will be implemented by foreign
   companies. (OSC plans no further processing)

   Al-Da'wah on 10 August publishes on page 4 a 160-word report saying that
   the Water Resources Ministry is implementing a water project in the
   Al-Harthah Sub-District in the Basra Governorate.

   Al-Da'wah on 10 August publishes on page 4 a 170-word report saying that
   the Agriculture Ministry participated in the workshop that was organized
   by the Iraqi Institute for Economic Reform during which ways of
   rehabilitating the agricultural sector in the country were discussed.

   Al-Istiqamah on 10 August publishes on page 2 a 220-word report citing
   Kirkuk Governor Abd-al-Rahman Mustafa as saying that the governorate's
   quota from the oil revenues during the past five months amounted to 130
   billion Iraqi dinars.

   Al-Istiqamah on 10 August publishes on page 2 a 180-word report citing
   Diyal a Water Director Murtada al-Makdami as saying that his directorate
   has completed a water treatment station north of the Ba'qubah City that
   will supply water to more than 5,000 people.

   Al-Istiqamah on 10 August publishes on page 2 a 220-word report citing the
   media spokesman for the Dhi Qar Governorate Council as rejecting the idea
   of turning the agricultural land into housing and commercial land, saying
   that this step negatively affects the agricultural situation in the
   governorate.

   Al-Istiqamah on 10 August publishes on page 2 a 250-word report citing
   Ra'id Sa'i, director of the Maysan Investment Commission, as saying that
   the commission has prepared a plan to invest in the tourist areas in the
   governorate.

   Al-Bayan on 10 August publishes on the front page a 240-word report citing
   Qahtan al-Juburi, minister of state for tourism and antiquities, as saying
   that the ministry has discovered 12,000 new archeological sites in seve
   ral areas of the country dur ing the past three years.

   Al-Bayan on 10 August publishes on page 3 a 100-word report citing a
   source at the Oil Ministry as saying that the ministry has decided to
   increase the kerosene quota of the private electricity generators during
   the holy month of Ramadan. (OSC plans no further processing)

   Al-Bayan on 10 August publishes on page 4 a 200-word report citing a
   source at the Baghdad Municipality as saying that the municipality has
   allocated seven billion Iraqi dinars for the cleaning sector in the
   capital.

   Al-Bayan on 10 August carries on page 4 a 100-word report on the statement
   the Labor and Social Affairs Ministry issued saying that it has organized
   a number of training courses for the unemployed persons who are registered
   by the ministry. (OSC plans no further processing)

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 2 a 150-word report citing Trade Ministry
   Undersecretary Walid al-Hilu as saying that the ministry has formed a
   higher committee that will be e ntrusted with the task of examining and
   paying the due payments to the traders who imported the rationed food
   items for the ministry.

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 2 a 190-word report citing an official source
   at the Culture Ministry as saying that a number of major international
   companies are competing to implement the Cultural Al-Najaf City Project in
   the Al-Najaf Governorate.

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 5 a 320-word report citing Oil Ministry
   Undersecretary Mu'tasim Akram as saying that the ministry provides the
   Baghdad Governorate with 6.5 million liters of gasoline a day.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 2 a 120-word report citing a media official at
   the General Directorate for Electricity Power Transmission as saying that
   the directorate's engineering and technical teams have rehabilitated five
   electricity power towers that were sabotaged three days ago.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 2 an 80-word report saying that the
   Electricity Power Projects Direct orate is implementing a project to link
   the New Jamilah Electricity Power Station with the Old Jamilah Electricity
   Station. (OSC plans no further processing)

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 2 a 55-word report saying that Dhi Qar
   Governor Talib al-Hasan inaugurated a pedestrian bridge in the
   Al-Nasiriyah City at a cost of 360 million Iraqi dinars. (OSC plans no
   further processing)

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 2 a 60-word report citing Al-Diwaniyah
   Municipality Director Jawad Kazim Gharqan as saying that the department
   has distributed 3,473 land plots to the government employees, displaced
   persons, martyrs families and senior officials. (OSC plans no further
   processing)

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 2 a 280-word report citing a media source at
   the Baghdad Municipality as saying that the municipality has completed the
   rehabilitation of a number of streets at a cost of 1.5 billion Iraqi
   dinars. The source added that the Baghdad Water Directorate completed 91
   percen t of the rehabilitation of drinking water networks in a number of
   areas in the capital at a cost of five billion Iraqi dinars.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 4 a 75-word report citing Karbala Martyrs
   Establishment Director Ahmad al-Tayyar as saying that the local government
   has allocated a land plot to construct a housing complex for the martyrs'
   families in the governorate. (OSC plans no further processing)

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 6 a 330-word report citing the construction
   and housing minister as saying that the ministry is implementing a number
   of strategic projects to construct 28 housing complexes in Baghdad and the
   governorates.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 6 a 110-word report on the statement the Water
   Resources Ministry issued saying that the ministry will implement an
   irrigation project in the Basra Governorate at a cost of 350 billion Iraqi
   dinars.

   Al-Zaman publishes on the front page a 100-word report citing Sabah
   Abd-al-Kazim, chairman of the Legal Department at the Contracts and
   Licenses Directorate at the Oil Ministry, as saying that Iraq will be one
   of the main exporters of gas to Europe in the next two years.

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 2 a 300-word report saying that dozens of
   citizens in the Karbala Governorate staged a demonstration in protest over
   the poor electricity services that are provided to them. The demonstrators
   called for dismissing the chairman of the Electricity Directorate in the
   governorate and for dissolving the parliament which has failed in forming
   the government.

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 3 a 200-word report saying that the Culture
   Ministry has allocated 800 million dinars to expand the Imam Ali Holy
   Shrine in the Al-Najaf Governorate.

   Baghdad on 10 August publishes on page 4 a 200-word report saying that the
   Salah-al-Din State Company is implementing projects to rehabilitate its
   own buildings and a number of its production lines.

   Al-Bayyinah on 10 Aug ust devotes all of page 6 to a report on the problem
   of drought in Iraq.

   Al-Bayyinah on 10 August devotes all of page 13 to a report entitled
   "Economic View of US Invasion of Iraq: Reasons, Results." VII. PRESS
   COMMENTS

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 2 a 900-word article by Amir al-Hilu
   on the suffering of the Iraqi people due to the hot weather and
   electricity crisis.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 3 a 600-word article by Jihad Zayyir
   commenting on the recent calls for reelections to resolve the current
   political crisis over the formation of the new government, and urging the
   new parliament to play its role in forming the new government.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 4 a 600-word article by Hasballah
   Yahya strongly criticizing the Iraqi political leaders for delaying the
   formation of the new government in order to maximize their gains while
   neglecting the problems of the Iraqi people.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes o n page 9 a 500-word article by Sadiq
   al-Azraqi criticizing the rival Iraqi political forces for not focusing on
   the new government's economic programs.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 11 a 1,000-word article by Sadiq
   Bakhan urging the new government to consolidate patriotism in order to
   combat the ongoing sectarianism in the Iraqi society.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 11 a 500-word article by Ahmad Shakir
   al-Halfi strongly criticizing the Trade Ministry for its failure to
   provide complete rationed food quotas.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 11 a 600-word article by Sami Hasan
   urging the UN Security Council to intervene to resolve the current
   political crisis over the formation of the new government.

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 3 an 800-word article by Abd-al-Razzaq
   al-Safi on the growing public resentment at the disputes between the rival
   political forces and leaders over the senior positions in the new
   government.

   Tari q al-Sha'b publishes on page 4 a 1,200-word report by Lewis Fu'ad
   al-Mi'mar criticizing the Trade Ministry for reducing the number of
   rationed food items.

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 5 a 500-word article by Kifah Muhammad
   Mustafa strongly criticizing the Iraqi officials and political leaders for
   their undeserved privileges in the Green Zone while neglecting the
   problems of the Iraqi people.

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 8 a 900-word article by Ni'mah
   Abd-al-Latif entitled "World Bank, Educational Policies."

   Tariq al-Sha'b devotes all of page 10 to a report listing the names of a
   new group of the 2,612 Iraqi Communist Party's martyrs who have been
   granted pension recently.

   Al-Mu'tamar publishes on page 5 a 600-word article by Hamzah al-Janabi
   entitled "Environmental Pollution, Diseases."

   Al-Mu'tamar devotes most of page 5 to public compla ints.

   Al-Mu'tamar publishes on page 8 a 700-word article by A'ishah a l-Mari
   holding the Al-Qa'ida Organization responsible for the recent attack
   against the Japanese oil vessel in the Arab Gulf.

   Al-Mu'tamar publishes on page 8 a 760-word article by Nihad Isma'il
   entitled "Arab Satellite Television Channels, American Conspiracy."

   Al-Mashriq publishes on page 6 a 760-word article by Abd-al-Amir al-Majar
   entitled "Lebanese Spies, Early Lesson for Iraqis."

   Al-Mashriq publishes on page 6 a 1,300-word article by Abd-al-Husayn
   Sha'ban criticizing Israel for the ongoing human rights violations against
   the Palestinian people.

   Al-Mashriq publishes on page 7 a 600-word article by Shamil Abd-al-Qadir
   urging the Iraqi people to protect the holy shrines of all of the Iraqi
   sects.

   Al-Mashriq publishes on the back page an 800-word article by Sabah al-Lami
   discussing the Al-Qa'ida Organization's new strategies in the next period.

   Al-Alam publishes on page 5 a 600-word article by Ahmad Sa'dawi empha
   sizing the importance of normalizing and strengthening the Iraqi-Iranian
   relations on the interests of the two countries basis.

   Al-Alam publishes on page 8 a 600-word article by Maytham Lu'aybi
   discussing the concepts of debts and loans.

   Al-Alam publishes on page 11 a 700-word article by Abd-al-Khaliq Gitan
   commenting on Vice President Adil Abd-al-Mahdi's recent statements and the
   ongoing exchange of accusations between the rival political leaders.

   Al-Alam publishes on page 11 a 1,000-word article by Shubbar al-Husayni
   evaluating the performance of outgoing Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in
   the past four years and discussing his chances of securing a second term
   in office.

   Al-Alam publishes on page 11 a 700-word article by Nasir al-Hajjaj
   criticizing the Iraqi lawyers and jurists for not performing their duties
   in society.

   Al-Alam publishes on the back page a 600-word article by Ahmad al-Muhanna
   accusing the Shiite forces of trying to depriv e the Al-Iraqiyah List of
   its right to form the new government for sectarian reasons.

   Al-Da'wah on 10 August publishes on page 9 a 230-word article by Salah
   Nadir al-Mandilawi commenting on the delay in the formation of the next
   government.

   Al-Istiqamah on 10 August publishes on page 2 a 300-word article by Hamid
   Amin commenting on the report that the United Nations recently issued
   saying that 25 percent of the Iraqi people are living below the line of
   poverty.

   Al-Istiqamah on 10 August publishes on page 6 a 550-word article by Baqir
   al-Fadli commenting on the delay in the formation of the next government
   and UN Security Council's Resolution 1936 in which it extended the work of
   the UN Mission in Iraq to another year.

   Al-Bayan on 10 August publishes on page 3 a 330-word article by Dr
   Abdallah al-Itabi commenting on the reasons for the State of Law
   Coalition's insistence on nominating Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki for a
   second term.

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 3 a 270-word article by an observer strongly
   criticizing the Algerian Government for rejecting the participation in the
   next Arab Summit in Baghdad under the pretext that there are foreign
   forces in Iraq. The writer rejects this excuse since the foreign forces
   will withdraw from Iraq seven months before the convening of the next Arab
   summit.

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 3 a 400-word article by Imad Allaw entitled "Is
   Iraq an Oil Producing Country?"

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 15 a 500-word article by Sabah Ali al-Shahir
   entitled "Regionally Accepted Prime Minister."

   Baghdad on 10 August publishes on page 2 a 600-word article by Husam
   Tabrah who comments on the significance of an interview with Al-Iraqiyah
   List Chairman Iyad Allawi which was broadcast on the Al-Iraqiyah Satellite
   Television Channel.

   Baghdad on 10 August publishes on the front page a 300-word article by
   Abd-al-Rahman al-Azraqi who criticizes the p olitical factions that do not
   recognize the right of the Al-Iraqiyah List to form the next government.

   Baghdad on 10 August publishes on page 2 a 300-word article by Abu-Fatimah
   al-Khafaji who says that the immature politicians envy Al-Iraqiyah List
   Chairman Iyad Allawi for having good relations with world and Arab
   leaders.

   Al-Bayyinah on 10 August publishes on page 11 a 300-word article by Kifah
   Mahmud Karim entitled "Everything for Sake of Posts in Iraq."

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 10 August publishes on page 6 a 500-word article
   by Hasan al-Bazzaz entitled "Assessing Democratic Option in Fighting
   Terrorism in Iraq."

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 10 August publishes on page 10 a 500-word
   article by Ghalib al-Zanjabili entitled "Al-Maliki: Who's Friend?"

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 10 August devotes half of page 10 to an article
   by Qasim al-Ubudi entitled "Impact of Electoral System on Partisan
   Coalitions." VIII.CORRUPTION

   Al-Sabah publishes on the front page a 160-word report citing Ziyad Ahmad,
   chairman of the Integrity Committee at the Diyala Governorate Council, as
   accusing a number of local officials of stealing the documents of the
   Electronic Government Project to cover up administrative corruption cases
   in this project.

   Al-Bayyinah on 10 August devotes all of page 5 to a report on the spread
   of corruption in the government institutions.

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   16) Back to Top
   Israeli Arabic Press 6 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from the Israeli Arabic press on 6
   August. To request additional processing, contact the OSC Customer Center
   at ( 800) 205-8615 or OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Israel -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 14:22:43 GMT
   http://www.islammov.net/ http://www.islammov.net/ )

   The 700-word editorial on page 2 of Kull al-Arab entitled "The Negev: A
   Transfer of 80,000 Citizens" claims that besides the five Arab villages in
   the Negev that experienced house demolitions so far, another 45 villages
   are under the same threat. The editorial claims that these actions by the
   Israeli Government "necessitate submitting complaints to international
   organizations, (because) what Israel is doing is an action of hostility
   against its own citizens." The editorial concludes by saying that "what is
   worse is that the popular and official incitement continues against those
   Arabs, who are accused of breaking the demographic balance, especially
   because they marry more than one woman." (Nazareth Kull al-Arab in Arabic
   -- Independent Israeli Arab weekly; URL: http://

   http://www.alarab.co.il/ http://www.alarab.co.il/ ) Head of Committee of
   Arab Local Councils Foresees no Change in Status of Israeli Arabs

   In a 2,000-word interview on pages 12 and 22 of Al-Sinnarah, Ramiz
   Jaraysi, mayor of Nazareth and head of the committee of Arab local
   councils, says that the latest strikes and demonstrations declared by Arab
   local councils come in protest against the conduct of the Israeli
   Government in regard to "master plans, house demolitions, and authority
   areas " along with the deprivation of Arab councils from budgets. Jaraysi
   also tells the newspaper that the major methods of struggle available to
   Israeli Arabs today are: Popular protest, appeals to Israeli courts and
   Knesset members, and bringing the problems of Israeli Arabs to the
   awareness of the international community. As for the prospects of success
   in this struggle, Jaraysi says that he antici pates no change or
   improvement in the near future, noting that "whenever there is a crisis,
   we are compelled to take some action and then we make some achievements."
   (Nazareth Al-Sinnarah in Arabic -- Independent, largest circulation
   Israeli Arab weekly; URL:

   http://www.sonara.net/248.php3 http://www.sonara.net/248.php3 )

   Commentator Says US Withdraw From Iraq Sign of Defeat

   The 400-word commentary on page 2 of Sawt al-Haqq wa al-Hurriyah by Editor
   in Chief Hamid Aghbariyah, entitled "Iraq as a Sign of What is Yet To Come
   in Afghanistan" claims that the decision of US President Barack Obama to
   withdraw the US Army from Iraq by the end of August 2010 is "a sign of an
   upcoming defeat in Afghanistan that will become the talk of the nations
   and a subject for historians and observers for years to come." The
   commentary concludes by saying that despite the declaration of US
   President Barack Obama that his "efforts will be foc used on fighting
   'terrorism in Afghanistan,' the situation of the US occupation in this
   Muslim country that smashed the Soviet bear indicates a defeat that will
   make the defeats in Iraq and in Vietnam look like a joke." (Umm al-Fahm
   Sawt al-Haqq wa al-Hurriyah in Arabic -- Weekly mouthpiece of the northern
   branch of the Islamic Movement in Israel led by Shaykh Ra'id Salah; URL:

   http://sawt-alhaq.com/ http://sawt-alhaq.com ) Commentator Accuses Israeli
   Media of Incitement For War

   The 700-word commentary on page 2 of Sawt al-Haqq wa al-Hurriyah by Tawfiq
   Muhammad, general overseer of media outlets in the Islamic Movement,
   entitled "On the Verge of a New War?" claims that the Israeli media had
   played a major role in inciting the Israeli Government to launch the war
   on Gaza at the end of 2009 by "exaggerating every event in the Strip in a
   way that makes every news 'consumer' believe it was a major security
   event." The commentary says that t oday the Israeli media is doing the
   same thing in relation to the recent missile attack on Elat, inciting for
   a major military operation against HAMAS in Gaza. Report on Druze
   Delegation From the Golan To Convince MK Nafi To Resign Kull al-Arab

   carries a 900-word report on page 4 on efforts by BALAD to convince MK
   Sa'id Nafi, former member of the party, to resign from the Knesset and
   thus allow the execution of the rotation agreement between BALAD and
   former RA'AM-TA'AL MK Abbas Zakhur. The report goes on to say that a
   delegation consisting of Druze notables from the Golan Heights met Nafi at
   his house in Bayt Jan in order to convince him to resign upon request from
   BALAD Secretary General Awad Abd-al-Fattah. The report says that so far,
   all the attempts to convince Nafi to resign have failed.

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   17) Back to Top
   Turkish Press 11 August 2010
   The following lists selected items from the Turkish press on 11 August; to
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735, or fax (703) 613-5735. For Islamist press highlights, see
   GMP20100811006001 - Turkey -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 12:29:09 GMT
   http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/ http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/

   Calling for "an honest debate" on Diyarbakir Mayor Osman Baydemir's
   suggestion that "a yellow-red-green-colored flag should wave beside the
   star-and-crescent flag in front of the municipality," Mehmet Akyol in an
   850-word article in the same newspaper describes the demand for regional
   autonomy as "p remature" and adds: "We first need to understand each other
   before finding out how to live together. All else is destined to hit the
   walls of ignorance, prejudice, and hatred." (processing)

   Writing in the same newspaper, Yusuf Kanli in a 900-word article refers to
   the withdrawal of US combatant troops from Iraq and argues that the
   government might have launched the Kurdish overture with the aim of
   protecting the Kurds in northern Iraq. Asserting that the Kurds' demand
   for autonomy will eventually lead to Turkey's division, Kanli underlines
   that Turkey is entitled to defend its citizens until the PKK lays down
   arms. (processing)

   The fact that moderate Kurdish politicians such as Ahmet Turk and Aysel
   Tugluk have been elected cochairman of the DTK means that the PKK will
   soon announce a cease-fire, says Cengiz Candar in a 700-word article in
   Radikal and adds that if the 12 September referendum is held in a peaceful
   environment, the Kurdish people wi ll be able to freely vote in favor of
   the package. Imrali should also display the same common sense, argues
   Candar and adds: "If the point that has been reached makes Imrali realize
   that civilian and democratic politics will be more influential in Turkey
   in the future, the messages that will be conveyed from there will be based
   on the new balances both in terms of Ocalan's own future and the general
   interest of the Kurdish political movement." The path for Turkey's
   democratic future will further be paved with the PKK's cease-fire decision
   and a rational message that will be received from Imrali, concludes
   Candar. (Istanbul Radikal Online in Turkish -- Website of pro-secular and
   liberal daily owned by Dogan Media Group; URL:

   http://www.radikal.com.tr/ http://www.radikal.com.tr )

   Rather than waging a war with the aim of ending the war, the army and the
   PKK are waging a war with the aim of satisfying the anger of the "enraged"
   Turks and Kurds a nd continuing with the war, says Taraf columnist Ahmet
   Altan in a 700-word article and draws attention to the need for "a
   willpower that aims to ensure that the Turks and the Kurds live more
   happily, more freely, more prosperously, and in further equality as well
   as the need for the courage that will put this determination into action.
   There is need for a Turkish and a Kurdish Mandela to this end, asserts
   Altan and argues that Erdogan may assume the role of the Turkish Mandela,
   while Abdullah Ocalan may assume the role of the Kurdish Mandela.
   (Istanbul Taraf Online in Turkish -- Website liberal daily supportive of
   the Justice and Development Party government's reform efforts, and of the
   military's disengagement from politics; URL:

   http://www.taraf.com.tr/ http://www.taraf.com.tr ) Referendum on
   Constitutional Amendment Package

   Joost Lagendijk, in a 750-word article in Hurriyet Daily News, assesses
   the criticism leveled by Republican People's Party, CHP, Ch airman Kemal
   Kilicdaroglu and Milliyet columnist Riza Turmen against the constitutional
   amendment package and says: "The choice on September 12 is not between an
   independent or a politicized judiciary, as Kilicdaroglu wants us to
   believe. It is between keeping a system in place, which is not
   representative of present-day Turkey or modernizing the key judicial
   bodies, reflecting Turkish plurality and enabling them to critically
   monitor every party in power." (processing)

   Erdogan displays great anger during his campaign for the referendum
   because he knows that if he is not able to come to power in the next
   elections, he will be referred to the High Tribunal, says Tufan Turenc in
   a 500-word article in Hurriyet and maintains that Erdogan is trying to
   reshape the Constitutional Court and the High Council of Judges and
   Prosecutors, HSYK, with the aim of protecting himself and his colleagues.
   Also questioning whether the crisis at the Supreme Military Council, YAS,
   aimed at assisting Erdogan to win the referendum, Turenc adds: "Was it
   worth creating so much tension in this country for eight days? If Hasan
   Igsiz and the 11 generals who have not been promoted are innocent, how
   will they be compensated? What about the illegal and unlawful arrest
   warrants issued prior to the YAS meeting? Furthermore what about the fact
   that 16 generals were summoned to testify in the midst of the YAS meeting?
   Is it not true that all this shows that the judiciary is acting in line
   with the demands of the political government? Is it not true that this
   destroys the respectability of the state of law?" (Istanbul Hurriyet
   Online in Turkish -- Website of pro-secular, mass-appeal daily, one of
   country's top circulation papers, owned by Dogan Media Group; URL:

   http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/ http://www.hurriyet.com.tr )

   In a 2,000-word letter to Hurriyet, Nationalist Action Party, MHP,
   Chairman Devlet Bahceli explains the reasons behind his de cision to vote
   against the constitutional amendment package in the referendum.

   Does anyone believe that the Kurdish problem will be resolved by
   stationing a special army along the border, asks Oral Calislar in a
   710-word article in Radikal and, underlining that "the problem is not on
   the other side of the border," says: "It will be possible to begin solving
   this problem by admitting that the murderers of Vedat Aydin who had been
   taken from his home in Diyarbakir and executed by shooting had received
   their instructions from the state." The Justice and Development Party,
   AKP, government which has achieved considerable results in overcoming the
   military hegemony should courageously face the Kurdish reality, asserts
   Calislar and calls on the government to communicate with the Peace and
   Democracy Party, BDP, for understanding the demands of the Kurds. Rather
   than being a military problem, the Kurdish problem is a social and
   political problem and a solut ion will be found only by looking at the
   problem in this manner, underlines Calislar and adds: "The Kurdish problem
   will be resolved with the Kurds."

   Assessing Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc's letter to Hurriyet on why
   he will vote in favor of the package, Radikal 's Murat Yetkin in a
   530-word article stresses that no one cares about the contents of the
   package and that "the referendum has turned into political polarization."
   The AKP officials' statement to the effect that the opposition parties,
   the PKK, and the media have united against them have also led to political
   polarization, argues Yetkin and cites Arinc's criticism against the
   opposition for not acting constructively during the preparation of the
   package. Arinc may be right in his criticism, notes Yetkin and asserts
   that if the CHP had assigned a representative to the Constitutional
   Conciliation Committee that had been established by Arinc, it would have
   been possible to prepare a mor e democratic constitutional amendment
   package that would not lead to concerns about civilian dictatorship or the
   rule of the majority and that would embrace broad sectors.

   Ismet Berkan, drawing attention to the battle of world between Erdogan and
   Kilicdaroglu in a 500-word article in the same newspaper, criticizes the
   CHP leader for responding to the prime minister's unpleasant and
   aggressive style in the same manner. Is it appropriate to start a fight
   with the same style, asks Berkan and says: "Is it not true that acting in
   this manner means accepting to wrestle on the prime minister's wrestling
   mat? For a moment the CHP members should ask themselves: Is it not true
   that we would be at a different point if Kilicdaroglu were to say: 'The
   country is in need of solutions, rather than fights. My interlocutor is
   the nation, rather than the prime minister. The prime minister is merely
   my political rival'?" YAS / Criticism Against the Turkish Armed Forces,
   TSK

   The TSK has always topped the list of the most trustworthy institutions in
   Turkey and it has been turned into a target during the past several years
   in an effort to destroy this image, says Fikret Bila in a 350-word article
   in Milliyet and stresses that the weaker the TSK is, the more comfortable
   it is be to wage a struggle against the foundation philosophy of the
   Turkish Republic and Ataturk's reforms and principles. Bila calls upon the
   TSK to respond to the accusations and to display transparency.
   (processing) (Istanbul Milliyet Online in Turkish -- Website of
   pro-secular daily, one of country's top circulation papers, owned by Dogan
   Media Group; URL:

   http://www.milliyet.com.tr/ http://www.milliyet.com.tr )

   The fact that the civilians controlled the latest YAS meeting is of
   historic importance in terms of the civilian-military ties and therefore,
   in terms of Turkish democracy, says Vatan 's Rusen Cakir in a 550-word
   article and assesses the reasons for th e success of the civilian
   government. Drawing attention to how powerful the AKP government is
   throughout the country and talking about the support extended to the
   government not only by the pro-AKP media organs but also by the media
   organs of the Fetullah Gulen Community and the Taraf newspaper, Cakir also
   argues that the government has actively included the supporters of the
   Gulen Community in the TSK in the fight for rendering the military
   ineffective. In conclusion, says Cakir, "it is possible to say that the
   winners and the losers thus far have been considerably shaped. Therefore
   in the period ahead we may witness new kinds of power struggles and
   especially wars for sharing the gains between the winning sides (or the
   sides that think that they have won)." (Istanbul Vatan Online in Turkish
   -- Website of pro-secular daily owned by Dogan Media Group; URL:

   http://www.gazetevatan.com/ http://www.gazetevatan.com )

   Describing the victory won by the AKP i n the YAS meeting as a "Pyrrhic
   victory," Mumtaz Sosyal in a 360-word article in Cumhuriyet says: "Yes,
   with the efforts of the AKP government "one of the criteria of the world
   and the EU" that is summarized as the operation of the military under the
   civilian government appears to have been captured, but at what cost? The
   confidence in the judiciary, the president, and the traditions of the army
   has been shaken... Even worse, this latest developments have shaken the
   influence of Turkey's most important trump card in the world politics --
   the influence of its army." (Istanbul Cumhuriyet Online -- Website of
   Kemalist daily; URL:

   http://www.cumhuriyet.com/ http://www.cumhuriyet.com )

   The fact that the civilian will has taken control of the 2010 YAS meeting
   is a beginning, rather than a final achievement, says Yasemin Congar in a
   700-word article in Taraf and emphasizes that Turkey's democratization
   requires the rearrangement of the ti es between the military and the
   judiciary. The fact that Hasan Igsiz who is being charged with plotting
   against the elected government has not been promoted is appropriate, says
   Congar and stresses that if the General Staff works under the National
   Defense Ministry, "the criminal customs" in the army will eventually
   diminish. After all, says Congar, this will be a reasonable step in terms
   of implementing in Turkey the system that is adopted in the NATO
   countries." Crisis Between the Government and the Judiciary

   According to a 300-word unattributed report in Taraf, a crisis similar to
   the YAS crisis has emerged due to the fact that the jurist members of the
   HSYK insist on appointing a "reinforcing judge" to work with the judges
   and the prosecutors in charge of the Ergenekon case and on the promotion
   and relocation of Prosecutor Ziya Oz. The report says that Justice
   Minister Sadullah Ergin and Justice Ministry Undersecretary Ahmet Kahraman
   atten ded the HSYK meeting yesterday in order to prevent the jurist
   members from issuing a "pirate decree." UN Inquiry into Gaza Flotilla

   In a 500-word commentary in Milliyet, Semih Idiz asserts that despite the
   fact that the inquiry into the Mavi Marmara incident gives Israel quite a
   headache, this does not mean that Turkey will achieve the results that it
   desires. Things could have been different if the UN secretary general had
   a strong personality and if he were able to stand upright, says Idiz.
   (processing) Appointment of Ambassador Francis Ricciardone to Turkey

   According to a 200-word report by Ilhan Tanir in Vatan Kansas Senator Sam
   Brownback, who according to Tanir is known with his support for the
   Armenian claims, has stopped Ricciardone's appointment. Tanir explains
   that the delay does not mean that Ricciardone will not be approved and
   notes that the Senate will reach the final decision in this regard.

   Material in the World News Connection i s generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   18) Back to Top
   Article Says WikiLeak Exposes Designs of Foreign Forces in Afghanistan
   Article by Asif Haroon Raja: WikiLeak exposes US-NATO atrocities -
   Pakistan Observer Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 11:47:32 GMT
   While US private Bradley Manning under interrogation may be made into an
   scapegoat, the question is whether it was he who transferred over 92000
   documents on to his computer and then passed it on to WikiLeak or was it
   Julian Assange who with the help of insiders in Pentagon managed to gain
   access to classified archives stored in a safe house? Julian rather than
   feeling scary on being poi nted out is in upbeat mood and is tantalizingly
   giving interviews to the media justifying his act and asserting that
   'bastards must be sorted out'. He has interacted with media in London
   knowing that majority of British are against war on terror and US
   policies.

   Logically, WikiLeak after delivering a severe blow to US military by
   exposing demonic behavior of US soldiers operating in Iraq should have
   either been blacked out or kept under strict watch. No such thing was done
   as a result of which it has repeated its act at a much bigger scale and
   created a worldwide stir second time. If WikiLeak was not in Washington 's
   control, New York Times, a mouthpiece of CIA, should not have been among
   the drumbeaters. Guardian also tows official policy and is a not a rebel
   newspaper; and so is Der Spiegel. So why this highly damaging report has
   been allowed to go public; it is simply bewildering? It indicates another
   failure of US, which will further aggravate the jumble in which the US is
   intertwined.

   If we go by the so-called veracity of documents accusing Pakistan of its
   linkage with Taliban since 2004 and presence of Haqqani network and
   Al-Qaeda leaders in Pakistan, one fails to comprehend as to why the US
   military failed to take physical action against known targets particularly
   when it has been making extensive use of drones against suspected targets
   in FATA? Why did they keep sleeping over it for over five years and why
   the sudden hullabaloo now? Why have the top guns of USA led by Hillary
   started to hound Pakistan so viciously? There is something cooking.

   I reckon many more suchlike revelations exposing Indo-US-Israeli grimy
   designs and dirty games would take place in coming months when US military
   would get stranded and helpless in Afghanistan . In Iraq deep hostility
   between British senior military commanders towards their American allies
   revealed in classified government documents was leaked to Daily Telegraph.
   The US militar y was described as 'a group of Martians'. Anatol Lieven in
   his article titled 'The National Interest: All Kayani's Men', confirmed
   that Tehrik-e-Taliban-Pakistan was created to pitch it against Pak Army
   and enmesh it in fighting on home ground irreversibly. NY Times identified
   brother of Karzai as a CIA operative and a major opium dealer and having
   close ties with Taliban. David Obeg, Chairman House of Appropriations
   Committee vehemently maintained that Afghanistan is a similar quagmire
   like Vietnam that could bankrupt Obama's domestic agenda. He said US had
   unreliable partners in Vietnam and now in Afghanistan . It had been
   predicted by economic wizards that American economy would be spiraling out
   of control sooner than later and would reach critical point by end 2010
   and implode by mid 2011. USA has become a bankrupt country. Americans
   being largest consumers in the world are unable to borrow further monies
   to buy cheap goods from China , Japan and other Asian countries. D emand
   for dollar has evaporated; dollar status as a reserve currency and its
   usefulness is being questioned more vocally. Dollar value is fast
   deprecating and its banks are closing.

   Whereas it is a reality that no US think tank, newspaper or official has
   ever written a single sentence on Indo-US-Israeli-Afghanistan nexus and
   their designs against Pakistan , WikiLeak has lifted the curtain. Although
   under US pressure head of this website has attempted to minimize the
   damage by telling an Indian news reporter that all reports less the ones
   pertaining to Pakistan were unreliable, it cannot be denied that US
   military has suffered the mo st from this disclosure. What is most
   worrisome for US military operating in Afghanistan is the exposure of
   names of their Afghan informers and some within Taliban ranks working as
   double agents? Their fate is sealed since the Taliban would never spare
   them. This factor will further shrink US battle intelligence capability,
   thereby compoun ding their problems during ongoing testing times.

   Thanks to few upright people in USA and western countries as well as
   whistle blowing independent websites, the world is now getting more
   educated about deepening mess in Afghanistan . Sooner than later, pieces
   would start falling in right places and real picture would emerge, which
   had been kept hidden all these years. There have been occasional reporting
   of use of excessive force by ISAF in Afghanistan, about torture tales in
   Gitmo, Bagram Base and Abu Gharib jails, but none could imagine the scale
   and gruesome nature of atrocities against Afghans as disclosed by
   WikiLeak. 150 bombing incidents on civilians killing mostly women and
   children had never been reported. Wedding ceremonies, funerals, children
   school buses and passenger buses have not been spared by trigger happy
   Yankees. Jets, gunship helicopters and drones have caused maximum
   casualties. Logs have also indicated use of Blackwater to capture or kill
   marked Taliban. WikiLeak has provided incriminating material for their
   trials for committing war crimes.

   There were strong reasons for sacked Gen McChrystal to restrain his
   swashbuckling cowboys from firing indiscriminately and causing large scale
   civilian fatalities. Hawks in Obama Administration had constantly pushed
   him for quicker results without caring for human destruction. Irked by
   their haughty behavior, he decided to call it a day. Is there some
   connection between WikiLeak-Rolling Stone-McChrystal? Moreover, is there a
   connection between Times Square incident, visit of three rasping top US
   leaders to Islamabad in July, WikiLeak revelations, Cameron's derogatory
   remarks and Karzai's diatribe?

   WikiLeak has inadvertently provided a golden opportunity to Pakistan to
   expose hidden designs, subversive activities and black deeds of occupation
   forces in Afghanistan and to blunt their smear campaign. The world is now
   eagerly looking towards whistle blowing websites li ke WikiLeak to throw
   light on following ambiguities: 1. Other than the declared objectives of
   USA, what was the hidden motivation to occupy Afghanistan? 2. What was the
   purpose behind setting up a huge intelligence centre at Jabal-al Siraj
   near Kabul comprising six intelligence agencies? 3. How did Osama bin
   Laden and whole lot of Al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders' laird in Tora Bora
   slip out in December 2001, which subsequently became the key cause of US
   intractable troubles in Afghanistan? 4. Is Osama dead or alive and if
   alive where is he located? 5. How did defeated, ousted fugitive Taliban
   managed to regroup so speedily and started hitting back at occupation
   forces from 2003 onwards? 6. Details of harrowing atrocities committed by
   Northern Alliance warlords against captured Taliban and Pakistani
   prisoners after the fall of Taliban regime in December 2001. 7.

   Details of $3 billion spent by CIA to win loyalties of corrupt Afghan
   warlords to help form a government in Kab ul under puppet Hamid Karzai. 8.
   Details of profits earned from illegal drug trade in Afghanistan and who
   all shared the profit to run covert operations against Pakistan and Iran.
   9. Particulars of tens of Pakistan specific training camps and
   intelligence setups of RAW-Mossad in Afghanistan and their methods of
   indoctrination of suicide bombers. 10. Idea behind Af-Pak policy and why
   did it fail to kick off. 11. How come 16000 foreign troops coupled with
   9000 Afghan troops backed by massive aerial and ground firepower failed to
   overpower few hundred ill-equipped Taliban in Marjah which has jeopardised
   US offensive drive in southern and eastern Afghanistan?

   --The writer is freelance analyst.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad Pakistan Observer Online in English --
   Website of the pro-military daily with readership of 5,000. Anti-India,
   supportive of Saudi policies, strong supporter of Pakistan's nuclear and
   missile program. Chief Editor Zahid Malik is the author of books on
   nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan; URL: http://www.pakobserver.net)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   19) Back to Top
   Writer Says Turkey Entitled To Defend Citizens Until PKK Lays Down Arms
   Commentary by Yusuf Kanli: "Prerequisite" - Hurriyet Daily News.com
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 06:08:11 GMT
   The Sunnis were made to hate the Shiites; Shiites were made to hate the
   Sunnis; Sunni and Shiite Arabs were made to hate the Kurds. That is the
   outstanding "success" of the United States' occupation of Iraq. In today's
   Iraq, Sunni and the Shiite elements might be seen at each other's neck,
   involved in a merciless campaign of attrition against each other.
   Tomorrow, no one should be surprised if these hordes illegality joined
   forces against something worse than the enemy: the Kurdish "brothers"
   living in "autonomous Kurdistan" in northern Iraq, who collaborated
   voluntarily with occupation forces.

   It might not come immediately after the planned Aug. 31 withdrawal of
   American combat troops but sooner or later at one point the rest of Iraq,
   irrespective of their religious affiliations, will unite in a campaign to
   punish the "traitors" who collaborated with the enemy, a phenomenon
   considered in the Middle Eastern culture of being worse than the enemy
   itself. Such an unfortunate development would of course further
   destabilize Iraq, but will be unavoidable unless either the United States
   maintains a sufficiently strong force with high deterrence power in
   northern Iraq even after withdrawal of its combat forces from ou r
   neighboring country or if the Americans convince Ankara to become a
   "protector" of the "autonomous Kurdistan" of Iraq.

   Is it possible for a Turkey having problems with its own ethnic Kurds and
   fighting for the past 25 years a separatist terrorist gang which besides
   elements in Turkey has its headquarters and some major camps in the
   territory of that "autonomous Kurdistan" to become a protector for the
   Kurds of Iraq, the loyal collaborators of Turkey's strategic partner
   United States in the decade-long Iraq catastrophe? That is the guiding
   reason behind the American-contracted yet still ambiguous "Kurdish" or
   "democratic" opening or the "peace and brotherhood project" of the ruling
   Justice and Development Party, or AKP government.

   While the "opening" long turned into a "closure" because of the
   incomprehension problems the contractor has been suffering as regards to
   what was wanted from it and how it would achieve the project, the
   government, shy to formally declare the failure of the task it was
   contracted, has been in efforts to find a face saving way out.

   In the mean time, while vast sections of the Turkish society were sent
   into a phobia that the country might be eventually divided because of the
   ambiguous nature of the "opening" micro-Kurdish nationalists aspiring to
   some sort of a self rule if not full partition from Turkey started
   stepping up their demands.

   Now the talk is centered on an ambiguous "democratic autonomy" as if
   people of this country are fool enough not to understand that such a
   development is nothing less than a phased partition of Turkey or a step by
   step carving out of a Kurdistan from Turkish territory.

   It was first Osman Baydemir, the mayor of Diyarbakir, who lately spelled
   out the idea. Then, it became clear that Baydemir and others were all
   voicing what the separatist chieftain Abdull ah Ocalan has said in his
   enforced-life-term cell at the Imrali island prison.

   Most lately, executives of the Peace and Democracy Party, or the BDP, the
   political wing of the separatist Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK,
   terrorist gang convened a "Democratic Society Convention" during which
   they clapped hands and danced to the tunes of the PKK's song and declared
   how democratic and united Turkey would be if Turkey agreed to establish
   regional autonomous administrations, among them a Kurdish autonomous
   region in eastern Turkey where along with the Turkish flag the flag of the
   separatist terrorist gang would be hoisted.

   More? As if this nation is fool enough to accept such oddities, it was
   demanded that the PKK should be converted into a regional army of the
   autonomous Kurdistan; including the PKK chieftain all convicted terrorists
   should be provided with an amnesty or at least should be subjected to
   "house arrest." Furthermore, as if Turkey is a counterpart of the gang, it
   was stressed that Turkey and the PKK should simultaneously stop use of
   force...

   There is absolutely a need to resolve the Kurdish problem. The Kurdish
   problem, like the overall democratization problem of Turkey, must be
   resolved within the framework of democracy, supremacy of law and without
   hurting the national and territorial integrity of Turkey with such odd
   ideas like "democratic autonomy." Until after there is a resolution and an
   end to separatist terrorist violence, it is the prime responsibility of
   Turkey to take whatever measure is require for the defense of its
   citizens. And of course, should there be a real opening for a real
   resolution of this important problem, the prerequisite is the laying down
   arms by the PKK gang.

   (Description of Source: Istanbul Hurriyet Daily News.com in English --
   Website of Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review, pro-secular daily,
   with English-language versions from other Dogan Medi a Group dailies; URL:
   http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   20) Back to Top
   Brazil Economic Issues 10-11 Aug 10 - Brazil -- OSC Summary
   Thursday August 12, 2010 03:07:35 GMT
   http://www.estadao.com.br/ http://www.estadao.com.br ) Argentina Fears
   Retaliations from Brazil

   - Sao Paulo O Estado de S. Paulo's Marina Guimaraes reports that Argentine
   entrepreneurs from the agriculture machinery sector fear that Brazil might
   retaliate due to Argentina's restrictions to products imports. According
   to Carlos Castellani, vice president of the Chamber of Agriculture Mac
   hinery Manufacturers, Carlos Castellani, "there may be tensions with
   Brazil due to the delay in granting imports licenses to product
   originating from the neighboring country." Brazilian Industry Not Ready
   For Ethanol Market Growth, Says Study

   - Brasilia Agencia Brasil's Daniel Mello reports on 11 August that the
   Brazilian industry is not prepared for the ethanol market expansion which
   is expected to occur over the next ten years, according to a study
   prepared in partnership between the IADB and the Sao Paulo State
   Federation of Industries (FIESP). According to one of the managers of the
   study, the Brazilian industry still does not view the biofuels market that
   is being created with the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,
   particularly among more developed countries. (Brasilia Agencia Brasil
   WWW-Text in Portuguese -- Government-owned news agency. URL: as of filing
   date: http://www.agenciabrasil.gov.br/ ) Resumption of
   Colombian-Venezuelan Relations Expect ed To Pressure Brazilian Exporters

   - Sao Paulo Valor's Marcos de Moura e Souza reports that Brazilian
   exporters are expected to again face competition from Colombia in the
   Venezuelan market as the Andean countries resume their trade flow after
   restoring diplomatic relations yesterday. According to the report,
   Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Colombian President-Elect Juan Manuel
   Santos met yesterday to discuss the normalization of commercial and
   diplomatic ties. (Sao Paulo Valor Online in Portuguese - Website of
   financial daily published jointly by the Folha and Globo media
   conglomerates; URL:

   http://www.valoronline.com.br/ http://www.valoronline.com.br ) Lula Wants
   To Mark Mercosur Consolidation During Term in Office

   - Sao Paulo Sao Paulo O Estado de S. Paulo's Celia Froufe reports on 10
   August that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva wants his term in office
   during the Mercosur presidency over the last months of the year to be
   remembered for the pr ogress made in the social and productive areas of
   the region. According to the report, the information was given by the
   Minister of Institutional Relations, Alexandre Padilha, after a
   ministerial meeting with the President. "The President will be the
   president of Mercosur until 31 December and wants to be the mark of
   consolidation," Padilha stated. President Lula Earmarks Funds For
   Brazilian Nuclear Program

   - Sao Paulo O Estado de S. Paulo's Marta Salomon reports on 10 August that
   according to the Minister of Science and Technology Sergio Rezende,
   President Lula has decided to earmark a sum of 127 million reais (R) in
   the 2011 federal budget, for investments in the Brazilian nuclear program
   and to overcome the delay in the nuclear fuel cycle to export enriched
   uranium by the end of the decade. According to the report, the Brazilian
   nuclear program was discussed in a reserved meeting between Lula and a
   group of ministers two weeks ago. The self-sufficiency i n the nuclear
   fuel cycle, planned initially for 2013, was dismissed in the meeting. The
   target now is to reach that objective the following year, but that depends
   on investments in the first year of Lula's successor's term in office. The
   amount earmarked is the first part of the money needed to expand the
   conversion scale of the uranium concentrate into gas, in an intermediary
   phase of uranium enrichment still entirely carried out overseas, and to
   increase the manufacture of ultracentrifuges. The total cost of the new
   plants is R348 million in three years. President Lula Sanctions Budget
   Guidelines Law for 2011

   - Sao Paulo Folha de S. Paulo reports on 10 August that President Lula
   sanctioned the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO) for 2011. According to the
   report, the text was published today in the Daily Gazette. The LDO has the
   objective of guiding the drafting of the fiscal and social security budget
   and the budget for public sector investments. (Sao Paulo Folha de Sao Pa
   ulo Online in Portuguese - Website of generally critical of the
   government, top-circulation newspaper; URL:
   http:www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp) Administration Expects Industrial
   Production To Grow by 11.5% This Year

   - Sao Paulo Folha de S. Paulo's Thais Bilenky and Mario Sergio Lima report
   on 10 August that despite the drop in industrial production in the second
   quarter, the administration projects a growth of 11.5% in 2010 in relation
   to 2009 in accordance with the Brazilian Economics in Perspective Report,
   released on 10 August. Social Networks Contributed To 335 Million Reais in
   Online Purchases

   - Sao Paulo Folha de S. Paulo's Gabriel Baldocchi reports on 10 August
   that social networks such as Orktut, Facebook, and Twitter are influencing
   the virtual trade in Brazil and according to a study conducted by e-bit, a
   consulting firm on e-commerce information, the media contributed to
   spending in the amount of R335 million in virtual trade in the first half
   of the yea r, and e-commerce grew by 40% in the first half of the year in
   comparison with the same period of 2009. Brazil Should Increase Ownership
   of Petrobras, Says ANP Director

   - Sao Paulo Folha de S. Paulo reports on 10 August that the general
   director of the National Petroleum Agency (ANP), Haroldo Lima, upholds
   that the government should increase its ownership of the Brazilian
   Petroleum Corporation (Petrobras) after the company is capitalized.
   According to Lima the price of oil reserve that the federal government
   will use in the operation should be the highest possible, because that is
   "good for Brazilians." Bovespa Drops 1.17% with Data from China, US;
   Dollar Rate Reaches 1.76 Reais

   - Sao Paulo Folha de S. Paulo reports on 10 August that Brazilian bonds
   recorded a devaluation early today following international markets and
   investors around the world are operating cautiously prior to the Federal
   Reserve meeting this afternoon after economic data showed tha t growth is
   decelerating in the United States and China.

   The following media were scanned and no file worthy items were noted:

   (Description of source: Sao Paulo Brasil Economico - Online version of
   economic daily; URL:

   http://www.brasileconomico.com.br/ www.brasileconomico.com.br )

   (Rio de Janeiro JB Online in Portuguese - Website of center-right
   commercial daily affiliated to the Catholic Church; URL:

   http://jbonline.terra.com.br/ http://jbonline.terra.com.br )(Rio de
   Janeiro O Globo Online in Portuguese -- Website of Rio de Janeiro's top
   cir culation daily, part of the Globo media conglomerate; URL:

   http://oglobo.globo.com/ http://oglobo.globo.com )(Brasilia Correio
   Braziliense Online in Portuguese -- Website of pro-government daily
   generally differs from printed version, which is available on site to
   subscribers; URL:

   http://www.correiobraziliense.com.br/ http://www.correiobraziliense.com.br
   )(Porto Alegre Zero Hora (Intern et version-WWW) --- Porto Alegre's
   leading daily

   http://zerohora.com.br/ URL:http://zerohora.com.br )

   (Brasilia Jornal de Brasilia (Internet Version-WWW) in Portuguese ---
   Brasilia daily URLhttp://www.jornaldebrasilia.com.br/)

   (Sao Paulo Agencia Estado in Portuguese - Center-right, largely
   pro-administration news agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   21) Back to Top
   Argentina Political and Economic Issues 11 Aug 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Argentina - OSC Summary
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 18:48:11 GMT
   - Buenos Aires Clarin's Augusto Rojas reports from Santa Marta that
   Colombia and Venezuela reinitiated diplomatic relations last night after a
   long meeting here between their respective presidents, who thanked former
   Argentine President Nestor Kirchner for his good offices as Union of South
   American Nations (Unasur) secretary general. (Buenos Aires Clarin.com in
   Spanish -- Online version of highest-circulation, tabloid-format daily
   owned by the Clarin media group; generally critical of government; URL:

   http://www.clarin.com/ http://www.clarin.com ) Kirchner Plays Up-Down Role
   - Buenos Aires La Nacion's Mariano Obarrio reports that Kirchner's role in
   the mediation between Colombia and Venezuela provoked "criticisms" in
   Brasilia and "upset" in Caracas, but he finally paved the way for
   yesterday's summit, in which Colombia and Venezuela agreed to restart
   diplomatic relations. (Buenos Aires lanacion.com in Spanish -- Website of
   conservative, se cond highest-circulation daily; generally critical of
   government; URL:

   http://www.lanacion.com.ar/ http://www.lanacion.com.ar ) (OSC translating
   as LAP20100811021002) Kirchner Celebrates Mediation as Own Achievement

   - Buenos Aires El Cronista reports that Kirchner played a "key" role in
   unblocking the conflict between the two Caribbean countries and will
   utilize his role to counteract the months of inaction and overlapping of
   posts that provoke some complaints and distrust among regional presidents.
   (Buenos Aires El Cronista.com in Spanish -- Website of independent
   newspaper owned by Spain's Recoletos Group, focusing on financial
   information; URL:

   http://www.cronista.com/ http://www.cronista.com ) (OSC translating as
   LAP20100811021003)

   Chavez, Santos, Kirchner (Tiempo Argentino)

   Colombian Senator To Visit Kirchner

   - Buenos Aires Pagina/12's Katalina Vazquez Guzman reports from Medellin
   that Piedad Cordoba will visit Bueno s Aires in the coming days to present
   a proposal to the Unasur secretary general to combine regional efforts to
   seek a solution to the war. (Buenos Aires Pagina/12 Online in Spanish --
   Online version of center-left daily owned by Clarin media group; generally
   supports government; URL:

   http://www.pagina12.com.ar/ http://www.pagina12.com.ar ) Commentary Core
   Issue Not Resolved

   - Buenos Aires La Nacion's Leandro Uria writes that the pact between
   Venezuela and Colombia was "foreseeable" and does "not" resolve the core
   issue. Chavez needs media impact to reinforce the ruling party for the
   legislative elections next month and Santos activates a vital commercial
   link for his economic plan. What about the presence of the Revolutionary
   Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in Venezuela? "Well, thank you." There was
   only a general commitment from Chavez that they will not be tolerated by
   his government. Therefore, they will be the issue in "a nother summit, or
   another fight." Other international issues Foreign Minister Wants
   Washington, Unasur To Dialog Directly

   - Buenos Aires Clarin's US correspondent Ana Baron reports from Washington
   that Hector Timerman arrived here yesterday very confident that his
   meeting with Hillary Clinton today will be very positive and he said that
   "I would like there to be a direct dialog between Unasur and the United
   States. He added that Costa Rica was negotiating for President Obama to
   receive the Unasur presidents. (OSC translating as LAP20100811021004)
   Timerman To Request More Access to US Markets

   - Buenos Aires La Nacion's US correspondent Silvia Pisani reports from
   Washington that Timerman arrived in the United States amid praise of
   Argentina by Hillary Clinton. Timerman was no less courteous and said the
   Secretary of State was ki ndly disposed to the region in general and to
   Argentina in particular and he attributed that to her "good
   relationship&amp;qu ot; with Cristina Kirchner. However, differences will
   surely arise over Honduras, which Washington wants to return to the OAS,
   but Timerman has said that "we cannot back a coup d'etat." Timerman also
   said that he wanted to improve access to US markets for Argentine foods,
   especially meats and fruits. (OSC translating as LAP20100811021005)
   National Presidential Irony in Buenos Aires Farming Heartland: Prioritize
   Pocket, not Heart

   - Buenos Aires Clarin reports -324 word- that at a ceremony in Bragado
   yesterday, Cristina Kirchner utilized a famous statement made by late
   Economy Minister Juan Carlos Pugliese amid the 1989 hyperinflation and,
   convinced that her administration is criticized by those who benefited
   from the Kirchnerite "model," challenged different sectors of the economy,
   especially farming: "don't put your hand on your heart, but in your pocket
   and notice what we have constructed in these seven years." In her long
   address, deliv ered in a "campaign tone," she praised her own
   administration, criticized the opposition, and again "agitated the ghosts"
   of the 1990s, "when the news was the auctions of the farms, because they
   could not be sustained. And let us look at how we are today," she urged
   the farming sector. Participants included Governor Daniel Scioli and local
   Mayor Aldo San Pedro. In related news, Presidency website adds on 10
   August -1,322 words- that the president inaugurated public works in
   Bragado yesterday. Opposition Bill To Limit Presidential Decrees Advances

   - Buenos Aires Clarin's Atilio Bleta reports that the opposition imposed
   its majority yesterday -eight votes to seven- in the Senate plenary
   meeting of the Constitutional Affairs and General Legislation Committees
   and approved the bill to modify Necessary and Urgent Decrees (DNU). It is
   now ready to go to debate. Two Dissident Justicialists Fail To Attend
   'Conciliation' Meeting

   - Buenos Ai res Clarin's Leonardo Mindez reports that Federal Peronist
   (PF) leaders met for dinner last night to overcome recent public
   differences and to reschedule the launch of the faction, which will be in
   Federal Capital on 10 September. "It was the night of conciliation," but
   only former President Eduardo Duhalde, Deputy Felipe Sola (Buenos Aires),
   Chubut Governor Mario Das Neves, Senator Adolfo Rodriguez Saa (San Luis),
   Senator Juan Carlos Romero (Salta), Deputy Ramon Puerta (Misiones)
   participated. Senator Carlos Reutemann (Santa Fe) and Deputy Francisco de
   Narvaez (Buenos Aires) were did not attend. Carrio Says Coalition Finished

   - Buenos Aires Clarin's Nicolas Winazki reports that Civic Coalition (CC)
   leader Elisa Carrio told Clarin yesterday that "from today the Civic and
   Social Agreement (ACyS) will be another thing. It no longer exists as it
   was diagrammed." She added that she did not expect the four ACyS parties
   -CC, Radical Civic Union (UCR), G eneration for National Encounter (GEN),
   and Socialism- to jointly contest next year's presidential election. Vice
   President Wants To Redefine

   - Buenos Aires La Nacion reports that in a visit to Tres Arroyos
   yesterday, Julio Cobos said that the ACyS "does not break because the CC
   may not be there. There are many other sectors and now it is necessary to
   restructure and redefine it." Santa Fe Governor Aggravates Opposition
   Crisis

   - Buenos Aires La Nacion's Jaime Rosemberg reports that Hermes Binner
   aligned with Casa Rosada yesterday and aggravated the opposition crisis:
   He stated that soybean withholding rates should be decided by the
   Executive Branch (PEN), in the framework of a national economic plan, and
   not by Congress, as the opposition proposes. Farming Sector Criticizes
   Binner

   - Buenos Aires La Nacion's Mercedes Colombres reports that Binner
   demonstrated yesterday that "from love to hatred there is only one step."
   He "fervent ly" defended the farming sector in 2008 and has now aligned
   with the government. His stance has caused growing unrest in the farming
   sector and been criticized by several sector leaders, one of whom, Hugo
   Biolcati, Argentine Rural Society (SRA) head, said that it was "strange"
   that Binner would change stance, go against the farming sector and his
   party, and seek to segment Congress. Kirchner Seeks Agreement With
   Socialism

   - Buenos Aires La Nacion's Obarrio reports that Cristina Kirchner's
   administration has celebrated Binner's defense of the withholdings and
   considers him an ally. "Binner could be Nestor Kirchner's vice president,"
   said a penguin yesterday. "There is nothing of that," commented Interior
   Minister Florencio Randazzo. Meanwhile, the former president is in
   telephone contact with Binner from Olivos much more than reported and
   feels deep admiration for him. Is this "another experience like that with
   Julio Cobos, an op position leader for vice president?" "No! Forget it.
   Binner is much more serious," commented an official source. Meanwhile,
   Casa Rosada knows that Socialism is divided between Binner and Santa Fe
   Senator Ruben Giustiniani and the ideal situation for some Kirchnerites
   would be a pact with the Socialists to back Binner to be reelected,
   although the Santa Fe Constitution prohibits it, or to return to Rosario
   as mayor. In Cordoba, Kirchner has closed an agreement with former
   Governor Jose Manuel de la Sota. Commentary Opposition Fractures Increase

   - Buenos Aires La Nacion's political columnist Joaquin Morales Sola writes
   that with "increasingly more fractures and weaknesses" in the opposition,
   the reelection of one of the Kirchners would "not" be impossible next
   year; he would only need to muster 40% of votes in the first round and to
   be 10% above his runner-up. (OSC translating as LAP20100811021006) Other
   issues Federal Judge Acquits Pr esident's Former Secretary

   - Buenos Aires Clarin's Omar Lavieri reports that in the case
   investigating illegal enrichment, Claudio Bonadio has acquitted Daniel
   Alvarez after proving that his patrimonial increase "is justified."
   Document Reinforces Investigation Into Alleged Navy Bribes

   - Buenos Aires La Nacion's Paz Rodriguez Niell reports that in the case
   investigating alleged corruption in the Navy's purchase of vessels from
   Ferrostaal in 2006, the Defense Ministry has given Federal Judge Ariel
   Lijo reserved testimony given by a former company executive in Germany
   confirming the operation, the amount of the alleged bribe, and the
   identity of the intermediary. Ministry sources said that the document has
   been "found" in the National Directorate of Transparency. Nobody explained
   how access was had to a copy of a document from a case being investigated
   in Germany. Yesterday, La Nacion contacted Navy sources, who stated that
   they could not conf irm the existence of the bribes and they would
   "continue cooperating with justice." Air Force Warns About Pilot Migration
   to Private Airlines

   - Buenos Aires Clarin's Guido Braslavsky reports that at the ceremony to
   mark the 98th anniversary of the Air Force yesterday, Commander-in-Chief
   General Normando Costantino admitted that the "constant migration of
   qualified personnel toward private activity is an unavoidable reality" and
   he urged to make a "core change" to create "professional and personal"
   expectations in the military aeronautical profession. This is the first
   time "in years" that one of the top military commanders dares mention a
   "taboo" issue publicly. Minister Nilda Garre did not attend the ceremony
   and Defense was represented by International Relations Secretary Alfredo
   Forti.

   A retired Federal Police (PFA) chief, 63, was murdered in Villa Lugano
   late

   last night, when he resisted a n attempt to rob his car. He is the fourth

   policeman murdered in less than a week and the eight year-today; already

   more than the nine murdered last year (Clarin)

   Spanish Judge Insulted in Cordoba

   - Buenos Aires Clarin's Marta Platia reports from Cordoba that when
   Baltasar Garzon, accompanied by Human Rights Secretary Eduardo Luis
   Duhalde, took a seat yesterday morning in the public gallery behind the
   "crystal cage" that prot ects former dictator Jorge Rafael Videla, former
   repressor Luciano Benjamin Menendez, and 29 accomplices, who are charged
   with dictatorship crimes against humanity, the repressors waited for
   proceeding to begin formally, requested the right to withdraw to an
   adjacent room, and departed en masse. Later, Garzon was insulted by two
   persons as he going to a press conference. This led to a scuffle between
   the couple and HIJOS (Children of the Disappeared) until police removed
   the couple. Later, Governor Juan Schiarett i, who received Garzon,
   condemned the attack on the judge "with all my strength." Economic Gas
   Shortage Impacts on Industry

   - Buenos Aires La Nacion's Francisco Olivera reports that the Argentine
   Industrial Union (UIA) announced in its monthly report yesterday that
   activity increased 11.7% in June on June 2009. This is 0.5% up on
   first-half 2008. Nevertheless, it indicated that losses were registered,
   for the first time this year, in the production of paper, cardboard, and
   chemical products, due to the gas shortage. Money Laundering: More
   Controls for Car Purchases

   - Buenos Aires Clarin reports that the Official Gazette (BO) published a
   Financial Information Unit (UIF) resolution yesterday, which, creates a
   data base to centralize information about new automobile purchases and
   obliges individuals and corporations to present sworn statements of the
   origin of funds when the purchase exceeds 50,000 pesos ($12,710).

   Material in the World News Conne ction is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   22) Back to Top
   Foreign Minister Wants Washington, Unasur To Dialog Directly
   Report by US correspondent Ana Baron from Washington: "Timerman wants a
   direct dialog between the Unasur and the United States" - Clarin.com
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 16:39:03 GMT
   "Argentina is a partner that we value. We have very good cooperation in
   the areas of nuclear non-proliferation, in the fight against terrorism and
   against drug trafficking, and also in peacekeeping missions, essentially
   in Haiti," a US diplomat told this correspondent.

   Timerman believes that bilateral relations are c urrently going through a
   very good phase since there is no major conflict between the two nations.
   "I am not going to make any complaint about the CIA report that says that
   Argentine statistics are not credible, simply because the CIA has no
   credibility," he explained during his conversation yesterday with three
   Argentine journalists, including this correspondent. During that
   conversation he made it clear that it was Hillary who had telephoned him
   to invite him to come to visit her in Washington.

   "Hillary and Cristina have been on good terms since they were both
   senators. They have established a good relationship between them," he
   explained. According to Timerman, despite all the concern in Washington
   about the war in Afghanistan or the conflict in the Middle East, part of
   Hillary's heart is in Latin America.

   "She has a soft spot in her heart for our region," he said, explaining
   that he wants to use these "favorable winds&amp; quot; for two things: to
   increase bilateral trade between Argentina and the United States, and to
   heighten the State Department's interest in institutions like Unasur
   (Union of South American Nations).

   "I would like to have a direct dialogue between Unasur and the United
   States," said Timerman, adding that Costa Rica is working on the
   possibility of having Obama meet with the Unasur presidents.

   In fact, yesterday when the State Department spokesman, Philip Crowley,
   described the issues that Hillary is thinking of discussing with Timerman,
   he included the talks between Chavez and Santos, but at no time did he
   mention Unasur's role in bringing about a rapprochement between the
   presidents of Venezuela and Colombia.

   BOTh sides are well aware of the differences between Buenos Aires and
   Washington in regard to Honduras. The United States wants Honduras to
   return to the OAS, while Argentina says that the conditions are not yet
   right. This will witho ut a doubt be the most sensitive issue in today's
   meeting.

   FCC Meeting

   Foreign Minister Hector Timerman met yesterday with the chairman of the US
   Federal Communications Commission (the FCC is the equivalent of Comfer
   (Federal Broadcasting Commission) in Argentina), Julius Genachowski, to
   "discusses experiences" related to the media.

   "This is the first time that we have had a democratic law in Argentina
   regulating the audiovisual system, so it is reasonable for us to be in
   contact with other democratic countries that have fought monopolies, as
   Argentina has done," said Timerman. When Clarin asked him shortly before
   the meeting if he intended to explain to Genachowski that the difference
   between the United States and Argentina (on this issue) is that there is a
   state-controlled media monopoly in Argentina, his answer was terse: "No.
   Because there is no state monopoly in Argentina," he said.

   (Description of Source: Buen os Aires Clarin.com in Spanish -- Online
   version of highest-circulation, tabloid-format daily owned by the Clarin
   media group; generally critical of government; URL: http://www.clarin.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   23) Back to Top
   Bolivia Press 11 August 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Bolivia -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 13:59:25 GMT
   -- La Paz La Prensa reports on the worsening conflict in Potosi.
   Yesterday, local government, civic and social leaders broke off relations
   with the executive branch and so me protesters took over the power plant
   supplying the San Cristobal Mine and are threatening to cut off the power
   supply, which would bring mining activity to a standstill. Yesterday, a
   Potosi delegation traveled to Sucre to participate in talks with Autonomy
   Minister Carlos Romero, Presidency Minister Oscar Coca and a delegation
   from Oruro, but the talks were called off before they began. Civic leaders
   are demanding that the government sends a delegation to Potosi to
   negotiate regional demands. Meanwhile, the population is suffering from
   food shortages as a result of the 14-day strike with roadblocks. (La Paz
   La Prensa.com in Spanish -- Digital version of conservative daily with
   modest circulation. Owned by Editores Asociados, S.A., member of the Grupo
   Lider media conglomerate which also includes PAT (Periodistas Asociados de
   Television), television network recently acquired by the Daher family of
   Santa Cruz; URL: http:/www.laprensa.com.bo/) MAS, District Court Threaten
   To Prosecute CNE

   -- La Paz La Prensa reports that Movement Toward Socialism (MAS)
   candidates and the La Paz Court of Justice threatened yesterday to
   prosecute National Electoral Court (CNE) members if they fail to abide by
   a court ruling to redistribute three Plurinational Legislative Assembly
   (ALP) seats to the MAS. On 5 August, the La Paz court ruled in favor of an
   appeal filed by three MAS candidates and instructed that three opposition
   deputies relinquish their seats. On 9 August, the CNE ruled that it was
   impossible to redistribute the seats and pointed out that there are no
   "plurinational" candidates, a term apparently used erroneously in the
   court ruling.

   Trond cartoon in

   La Razon depicts CNE President Antonio Costas batting back three deputies
   being thrown out of the ALP. Editorial Examines Morales's State of Nation
   Speech

   -- La Paz La Prensa, in its editorial, analyzes President Evo Morales's 6
   August Independence Day speech, in which he identified several weaknesses
   of his administration: increased drug trafficking, falling investments,
   corrupt MAS members, and the growth of black market activities. "The
   acknowledgement of those weaknesses, to which he added conciliatory
   expressions which Bolivian society would have liked to hear always, made a
   message that could be praise-worthy if it were not for the doubts created
   because of the profound contradictions between what is said and what is
   done." For although Bolivia wants democracy and peace, argues the editor,
   since coming to power Morales's government has adopted a strategy of
   "first regional and racial confrontation, followed by cultural, ethnic,
   economic, and social confrontation." The editorial concludes with the hope
   that Morales's message was sincere and that the government starts working
   to correct its errors and resolve the country's problems, "setting
   arrogance aside and taking a dose of humility and service" because that is
   why it was elected. Digcoin: United States Funds Incineration of Seized
   Coca

   -- La Paz La Razon reports that the government has delegated the task of
   incinerating at least 109 tons of confiscated coca to the US Narcotics
   Affairs Section (NAS). Luis Cutipa, director of the General Directorate
   for Coca Leaf and Industrialization (Digcoin), has said he is unaware of
   the budget required, but that NAS will destroy the coca in Capinota, near
   Cochabamba. He also said that there was at least 909 more tons of coca in
   Digcoin warehouses that should be destroyed under law. (La Paz La Razon
   Online in Spanish -- Digital version of conservative newspaper, owned by
   the Spanish Promotor a de Informaciones, S. A. (Prisa) media conglomerate,
   which also includes ATB Red Nacional de Television. Although it is not
   part of Grupo de Diarios de America, it reproduces special reports by this
   group of conservative Latin America dailies; URL:

   http://www.la-razon.com http: //www.la-razon.com ) Defense Ministry
   Defends 'Patriot Plan'

   -- La Paz La Razon reports that the Defense Ministry has issued a
   communique in response to criticism of the so-called "patriot plan" that
   offers military training to civilians. "The security and defense of the
   Plurinational State of Bolivia is not the exclusive task of the Armed
   Forces. It is the responsibility of all Bolivians and, within this
   context, this kind of experience is encouraged," the communique states.
   Morales Enacts Customs Reform Law

   -- Bolivian Government News Agency (ABI) reports that President Morales
   enacted the Tax Code and Customs Law Reform Law yesterday. Chamber of
   Deputies President Hector Arce said: "We are going to have greater
   production and more employment", on explaining that by controlling
   smuggling, the government will eliminate "disloyal" market competition.
   (La Paz Agencia Boliviana de Informacion in Spanish -- Website of govern
   ment-owned news agency; URL:

   http://abi.bo/ http://abi.bo/ ) Morales Opens State Cardboard Factory

   -- ABI reports that President Morales opened the state's first cardboard
   factory in Vinto, near Oruro, yesterday, with an investment of 50 million
   bolivianos ($71.17 million). "Today is a historic day for the department
   and for the country. We are delivering one of our industries and we hope
   to continue with other companies," Morales said on asking for social
   control to ensure the company's future sustainability. ABI reports that
   the new company, called Cartonbol, will create 164 direct and 200 indirect
   jobs and will benefit 1,500 families. Uruguay's Mujica Offers To
   Facilitate Atlantic Port

   -- ABI reports that Uruguayan President Jose Mujica has said his country
   is willing to give Bolivia and Paraguay access to the Atlantic Ocean.
   Speaking on a weekly radio program yesterday, Mujica explained that the
   option would require work on the Martin Garci a Canal, for which Argentina
   would have to give its approval. Government Repeats Invitation To Resolve
   Potosi Conflict, Denies Militarization

   -- ABI reports that government spokesman Ivan Canelas said yesterday that
   Potosi civic leaders "should set aside their intransigence, call off the
   pressure tactics and attend talks as the best way to resolve the region's
   demands." He said the government had repeatedly demonstrated its
   willingness to resolve the conflict and denied rumors that it was planning
   to militarize the region. World Bank Guarantees $500 Million

   -- Cochabamba Los Tiempos reports that yesterday the World Bank guaranteed
   $500 million in loans for development projects until 2012 and announced a
   new strategy for 2011-2015, under which the government can access more
   credit. Felipe Jaramillo, World Bank director for Andean countries, who
   met with President Morales in La Paz yesterday, said: "We have seen marked
   progress in the country, in i ts economy, in the poverty figures, in the
   social figures, a stable macroeconomic management. That is why, in a new
   World Bank support strategy, we are going to offer Bolivia financial
   services that are accessible to medium-income countries." (Cochabamba Los
   Tiempos.com in Spanish -- Website of conservative newspaper with widest
   circulation in Cochabamba, owned by the Canelas family. Published in
   partnership with the Rivero family, member of the Grupo Lider media
   conglomerate which also includes PAT (Periodistas Asociados de Television)
   television network, owned by the Daher family of Santa Cruz; URL:

   http://www.lostiempos.com/ http://www.lostiempos.com )

   Santa Cruz de la Sierra El Deber.com.bo in Spanish was scanned and no
   file-worthy items wer e noted.

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   24) Back to Top
   Xinhua 'Roundup': WHO Declares H1N1 Pandemic Over, But Virus Risk Remains
   Xinhua "Roundup": "WHO Declares H1N1 Pandemic Over, But Virus Risk
   Remains" - Xinhua
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 07:33:19 GMT
   BEIJING, Aug. 11 (Xinhua) -- The World Health Organization (WHO)
   officially declared the H1N1 flu pandemic over Tuesday, with
   Director-General Margaret Chan saying the new virus had "largely run its
   course."

   The announcement came about 15 months after the WHO confirmed initial
   outbreaks of influenza H1N1 in Mexico and the United States on April 24,
   2009, followed by concerted global efforts to fight the new virus that has
   spread to 214 countries and regions and led to at least 18,449
   deaths.Nevertheless, Chan war ned the announcement did not mean the H1N1
   virus had gone away, and that "localized outbreaks of different magnitude
   may show significant levels of H1N1 transmission."The virus was first
   named human swine flu due to preliminary findings that it is genetically a
   reassortment of swine flu, human flu and avian influenza (bird flu). The
   name continued to be used in many countries although the WHO later changed
   its name to influenza H1N1 in April.The flu pandemic turned out less
   severe than expected. In April last year, Chan declared "a public health
   emergency of international concern," highlighting that the virus was
   unpredictable.The WHO raised its flu pandemic alert level twice in three
   days from April 27 and further raised it in June to phase six, the highest
   level of alert, meaning the virus had led to a flu pandemic.By early
   November 2009, influenza H1N1 was the most common cause of human flu. The
   number of confirmed infections continued to increase, inc luding over
   10,000 deaths worldwide, prompting high alerts or emergency warnings in
   the United States, Mexico, Argentina and Mongolia.Scientists devoted
   themselves to developing a vaccine. A biological product company in
   Beijing announced in August last year it had developed a vaccine that had
   proved safe to human beings in clinical tests. China authorized the
   product for vaccination in September, followed by similar authorizations
   elsewhere.Vaccination was carried out in most of the countries affected by
   the new virus, covering the whole population of some cities and regions.
   It is believed to have helped slow the spread of the virus.The spread of
   the virus began to slow in late 2009. The number of confirmed infections
   in the United States, Canada and elsewhere also decreased. On April 12,
   2010, a review of the global response was launched.Scientists also found
   the virus to be less virulent than they had feared. U.S. researchers found
   the fatality rate of the infected patie nts to be between 0.007 percent
   and 0.045 percent, about the same as that of a seasonal flu.Now the WHO is
   confident enough to call pandemic over."The world is no longer in phase 6
   of influenza pandemic alert. We are now moving into the post-pandemic
   period," Director-General Chan said Tuesday.However, she called for
   continued vigilance and surveillance."Based on experience with past
   pandemics, we expect the H1N1 virus to take on the behavior of a seasonal
   influenza virus and continue to circulate for some years to come," the WHO
   chief said."Based on available evidence and experience from past
   pandemics, it is likely that the virus will continue to cause serious
   disease in younger age groups, at least in the immediate post-pandemic
   period," she said."Groups identified during the pandemic as at higher risk
   of severe or fatal illness will probably remain at heightened risk, though
   hopefully the number of such cases will diminish," she ad ded.(Description
   of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for
   English-language audiences (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   25) Back to Top
   Palestinian Press 11 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from the Palestinian press on 11 Aug.
   To request additional processing, or for assistance with multimedia
   elements, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735; or fax (703)
   613-5735. - West Bank &amp;amp; Gaza Strip -- OSC Summary
   Thursday August 12, 2010 04:49:24 GMT
   Front page of Ramallah Al-Hayah al-Jadidah (Electronic Edition) in Arabi c
   -- PA-owned daily, supportive of the presidency; URL:
   http://www.alhayat-j.com, on 11 August:

   President Abbas Meets with Mitchell, News about Progress in Efforts to
   Launch Direct TalksIsrael Develops Plan to Challenge Government's Decision
   to Boycott Settlement ProductsIsrael Threatens to Withdraw from UN's
   Investigation in Freedom Flotilla Attack

   Front page of Jerusalem Al-Quds in Arabic -- independent, largest
   circulation, pro-Fatah daily; URL: http://www.alquds.com, on 11 August:

   Abbas-Mitchell Meeting Was 'Profound, Very Positive'Israeli Bulldozers
   Destroys 150 Tombs in Ma'man Allah Cemetery Under Cover of
   DarknessChristian Churches Reject Israeli Tax-Paying DecisionKuwait Is
   Committed to Pay Funds It Pledged to Pay at Surt Summit in Libya

   Direct Talks

   In its 400-word editorial entitled: "Pressures on the PA," on page 16,
   Al-Quds says that the Palestinians have no objections to direct talks
   which they consider "the st rategic choice for settling their cause and
   for achieving their legitimate national rights." It adds that the
   Palestinians will not have their cause become "a scapegoat for settling
   other regional issues," and that pressures exerted on them will not help
   achieve stability and security in the region.In his "Marks on the Road"
   daily column, under the title "Talks again?" on page 5 of Al-Hayah
   al-Jadidah, Yahya Rabah says in a 750-word commentary that PA's decision
   regarding the direct talks "deserves a large-scale discussion, whether
   this decision was positive or negative." He goes on to say that he was not
   pleased with Arab League's Follow-up Committee's decision to move to
   direct talks with Israel, leaving the time and way to president Mahmud
   Abbas. He concludes by saying that the chance is still there to improve
   the US and international stances and that President Abbas is not calling
   for a complete change in the US-Israeli rel ations but rather some
   development which can allow the talks to succeed.

   A cartoon on page 16 of Al-Quds by Khalil Abu-Arafah, shows Ehud Baraq and

   Binyamin Netanyahu before the Israeli fact-finding committee, each blaming

   the other in the Freedom Flotilla events, saying: "He was responsible!"

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   26) Back to Top
   Xinhua 'Roundup': Palestinians Receive U.S. Approval of Proposal of
   Reference for Direct Talks With Israel
   Xinhua "Roundup": "Palestinians Receive U.S. Approval of Proposal of
   Reference for Direct Talks With Israel" - Xinhua
   Wednesday August 11, 20 10 20:44:18 GMT
   RAMALLAH, Aug. 11 (Xinhua) -- A senior official revealed on Wednesday that
   the Palestinian leadership received a preliminary approval from the United
   States over a proposal that the Quartet committee for peace in the Middle
   East issue a statement defining a reference for direct peace talks with
   Israel.

   Hana Amira, member of Palestine Liberation Organization's (PLO) executive
   committee, told Xinhua that U.S. peace envoy George Mitchell informed
   President Mahmoud Abbas on Tuesday that the U.S. has accepted in principle
   the proposal that the Quartet Committee issues the statement.The
   Palestinian National Authority (PNA) has been pushing towards the issue
   that the Quartet committee, which includes the United States, Russia, the
   European Union and the United Nations, is the one which defines a
   reference for the direct peace talks with Israel.The PNA wants the
   Quartet, which will convene in September, to defin e a reference for the
   direct peace talks with Israel, which includes setting up a ceiling, an
   agenda and a time schedule for the talks, in addition to having the role
   of observing the talks."The proposal is still under discussion in order to
   put a proper vision over the Quartet's statement," said Amira, adding that
   the Palestinian side has not received any answer from the Israeli side on
   the issue. "We expect that Israel would rebuff the proposal because it is
   not serious in the peace talks."The proposal was one of three proposals
   the Palestinians had presented to the United States in order to launch
   direct peace talks with Israel. Washington rebuffed two proposals and
   promised to consider the one related to the Quartet.The first proposal is
   that U.S. President Barack Obama issues a statement that defines a
   reference for the direct peace talks with Israel, including guarantees,
   and the second proposal is to hold a three-way meeting that includes
   senior Is raeli, Palestinian and U. S. officials. The two proposals were
   rejected.Meanwhile, Yasser Abed Rabbo, PLO executive committee secretary
   general, had earlier on Wednesday told "Voice of Palestine" Radio in an
   interview that the Palestinians are in favor of the proposal that the
   international Quartet defines a reference for the direct peace talks with
   Israel."In case the Quartet defines the reference for the direct peace
   talks with Israel, it will be an observer that will treat the issues which
   are related to the references of the peace process and setting up a time
   schedule for the negotiations including the cessation of settlement," said
   Abed Rabbo.The Palestinians hope that the statement of the Quartet
   Committee, which was issued on March 19 and called for holding talks based
   on halting settlement, implementing the international resolutions and on
   the principle of the two-state solution, would be considered by both
   Israel and the United States.However, P alestinian officials and observers
   said that the Palestinians' choice of approving the Quartet's statement to
   define a reference for the peace talks and even sponsor the talks with
   Israel "is a clear Palestinian disappointment from the U.S. sponsorship of
   the peace process.""The Palestinians consider the sole American
   sponsorship of the talks had reached its end," said Amira, adding that
   Washington "is not a mediator anymore after it had failed to pressure on
   Israel to halt settlement activities in the Palestinian territories,
   mainly in East Jerusalem."He accused the United States of retreating from
   its pledges towards the requirements of the peace process, adding that the
   U.S. "has been only exerting pressure on the Palestinians in order to
   convince them to go for direct negotiations without any guarantees.
   "Mekhemer Abu Se'da, the political science professor at the Gaza- based
   al-Azhar University, told Xinhua that the U.S. "pass es through a crucial
   situation these days on the eve of the congress elections in November,"
   adding "the U.S. wants to go for direct talks between Israel and the
   Palestinians by all means.""The U.S. may accept the proposal related to
   handing the Quartet a sponsorship of the talks as one of the means to
   encourage the Palestinians to go for direct talks with Israel, based on
   the vision of the two-state solution, but without having any substantial
   progress," said Abu Se'da.Eyad al-Barghouti, another political analyst
   from the West Bank, told Xinhua that he rules out that the choice of
   involving the international Quartet in the direct talks would succeed in
   pressuring on Israel to achieve what the Palestinians want, mainly halting
   settlement.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's
   official news service for English-language audiences (New China News
   Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   27) Back to Top
   Bangladesh Press 11 Aug 10
   The following is a selection of highlights from Bangladesh press on 11 Aug
   10 - Bangladesh -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 12:41:25 GMT
   The Dainik Janakantha publishes an unattributed report entitled "US
   Welcomes Signing of Deal With India." The report says the United State of
   America has welcomed Bangladesh's decision to give India transit facility.
   Such connectivity is crucial for regional development, said James F
   Moriarty, the US ambassador in Dhaka, while talking to reporters after a
   meeting with Foreign Minister Dr Dipu Moni on 10 August. According to the
   report, the US envoy appreciated the singing of agreement with India for
   $1 billion loan and said that bilateral interests are involved with the
   deal. During the meeting, the envoy and the minister discussed matters of
   mutual interest with particular reference to giving recognition to Kosovo
   as an independent state.

   (Description of Source: Dhaka Dainik Janakantha in Bangali - Lone
   multi-edition Bengali daily, with an estimated circulation of 100,000.
   Pro-Awami League and known for critical investigative reports on radical
   Islamic groups.) Dhaka Court Issues Warrant of Arrest Against WPC Chairman
   on Charges of Hurting Muslim Sentiments

   The Dainik Inqilab publishes an unattributed report entitled "Warrant of
   Arrest Issued Against Dev Narayan in Case for Hurting Religious
   Sentiment." The report says a Dhaka court on 10 August 2010 issued warrant
   of arrest against Dev Narayan Moheshwar, president of World Peace Council
   (WPC), on the charges of hurting religious sent iment of the Muslims.
   According to the report, the arrest warrant came as a metropolitan
   magistrate took cognizance of the allegation of hurting Muslim sentiments
   by Dev Narayan through filing a writ petition seeking correction of a
   verse of the Kuran on the kurbani (sacrifice) of prophet Ibrahim. The
   report says an aggrieved Muslim in Dhaka filed the case against him.

   (Description of Source: Dhaka Dainik Inqilab in Bengali - Pro-Islamic
   daily; editorial policy is pro-Islamic, anti-secular and generally opposes
   Indian and western policies.) Deadlock Continues in BNP Over Constituting
   Full-Fledged Committees in All Organizational Districts

   The Dainik Inqilab publishes a report by Shafiul Alam Dolan entitled
   "Begum Khaleda Zia Extremely Unhappy With Five Party Joint Secretary
   Generals." The report says that the main opposition party, Bangladesh
   Nationalist Party (BNP), is yet to complete formation of full-fledged
   committees in all organizational distri cts across the country for
   internal conflicts. According to the report, Begum Khaleda Zia,
   chairperson of the BNP, is extremely unhappy with five joint secretaries
   general of the party for their "negligence of duty and failure to resolve
   internecine conflicts" to constitute full-fledged committees in the
   remaining 16 organizational districts. Quoting relevant sources, the
   report says the BNP chief earlier entrusted six joint secretaries general
   to resolve the crisis, but all of them failed excepting one. The report
   says that Zia issued a fresh order to constitute the district committees
   within the current month of August 2010. BJI Leader Says Ruling BAL Takes
   Up War Crimes Issue To Hurt Political Opponents

   The Dainik Sangram publishes an unattributed report entitled "Issue of War
   Crimes Trial Undertaken To Hit Opponents Through Political Slogans, Says
   ATM Azhar." The report says ATM Azharul Islam, acting secretary general of
   Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Isl ami (BJI), said that the ruling party, Bangladesh
   Awami League (BAL), has taken up the issue of war crimes trail to hit its
   political opponents. The issue of war crimes trial was settled by Sheikh
   Mujibur Rahman, the first president of the country, the BJI leader said.
   According to the report, Azharul Islam made the observations at a party
   rally in Dhaka on 10 August.

   (Description of Source: Dhaka Dainik Sangram in Bangali - Daily newspaper
   published by the fundamentalist Jamaat-e-Islami party.)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   28) Back to Top
   Syrian Press 11 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from the Syrian press on 11 August. To
   request additional processing, pl ease call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735. - Syria -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 17:34:04 GMT
   http://thawra.alwehda.gov.sy/ http://thawra.alwehda.gov.sy)

   In a 340-word editorial in Tishrin entitled "The Truth, The Truth," Chief
   Editor Samirah al-Masalimah says: "While Israeli leaders are trying to
   exchange accusations in the case of the assault on the Freedom Flotilla,
   and while the Zionist administration continues to ignore the consequences
   of the Goldstone report, and the assassination of Mahmud al-Mabhuh in
   Dubai, Israel finds itself in a real confrontation with the hypothesis of
   its assassination of former (Lebanese) Prime Minister Rafiq Al-Hariri in
   February 2005." The writer adds: "Although the conjecture presented by
   Sayyid Hasan Nasrallah is not evidence, however, finding real answers to
   the threads that wer e presented, and the indicators they carry, will lead
   to forming a complete picture of what has been committed by Israel in
   Lebanon. That is why Israel's disregard for all this, and belittling of
   what has been presented to the public opinion, sees the expected reaction
   in the media and on the political level and through the statements of the
   Zionist enemy's leaders." Al-Masalimah continues: "We say again that
   Israel's prior denial, which escalated over months in the form of leaks
   and accusations of Hizballah, was only driven by an Israeli realization
   that Hizballah will not tolerate this accusation, and that it will reveal
   what it has of conjecture and facts."Indicating that "if the Zionist
   accusations are the result of a hostile political attitude toward the
   resistance," the writer says that "the resistance's accusations of Israel
   are the result of information and conjecture, and the considerable work it
   has done, not only to point the finger a t the perpetrator, but also to
   defend Lebanon and uncover the truth." She concludes: "The realization of
   justice cannot come at the expense of justice itself, and neither can
   justice be in its &amp;amp;#8594 place when the innocent is accused, while the
   real perpetrator has the power to accuse and tamper with the real
   investigative work; and this leads to the call to search for the simple
   truth and not the false one." (Description of source: Damascus Tishrin
   Online in Arabic -- Website of the government-owned newspaper; URL:

   http://tishreen.info/ http://tishreen.info)

   In a 180-word report in Al-Ba'th entitled "Turkey Supplies 300 MW To
   Support Syria's Electricity," Marwan Hwayjah quotes Electricity Minister
   Ahmad Qusay Kayyali saying that "Syria will be fed with an additional300
   MW of electrical energy from Turkey, so that the total amount of energy
   that is pumped by Turkey to Syria to support its electrical needs would
   reach 500 M W through the connecting line between the two
   countries."Kayyali informed Al-Ba'th that "this additional Turkish supply
   to the Syrian electricity network is currently being finalized, and
   coordinated with the Turkish side through the respective ministries in the
   two countries," indicating that "the matter has been discussed from all
   its angles with the Turkish minister of electricity, so that the
   additional supply starts in the next few days after the completion of the
   required arrangements." (Description of source: Damascus Al-Ba'th Online
   in Arabic -- Website of the newspaper of the ruling Ba'th Party; URL:

   http://www.albaath.news.sy/ http://www.albaath.news.sy)

   In a 385-word article in Al-Watan entitled "Why all These Weapons to
   Israel?," Khurshid Daly says: "Observers of the track of US-Israeli
   relations during the past few months must reflect on the huge military
   deals between the two sides, as a simple review of wha t happened between
   them in this domain puts us in front of a huge amount of deals and
   military assistance, most notably: First, President (Barack) Obama asked
   Congress for 205 million US dollars to cover the expenses of the
   establishment by Israel of the Iron Dome system, which intercepts
   short-range missiles," while the second deal is "the support announced by
   Obama, during his recent meeting with (Binyamin) Netanyahu at the White
   House, for Israel's nuclear program in the name of deterrence and the
   special security requirements of Israel."The writer adds that the third
   arrangement is "the declaration by the US Department of Defense through
   Jeffrey Wieringa, director of the Pentagon's Defense Sales, of an imminent
   deal for the sale of F-35 aircraft to Israel," while the fourth is "the
   declaration of Assistant Secretary of State Andrew Shapiro that the United
   States is considering providing a military aid package to Israel,
   described as the larg est, after the White House asked Congress to approve
   an amount of 2.775 billion dollars as special security assistance to
   Israel." The writer continues that the fifth deal observed is "the signing
   by the two sides of an agreement to develop the Israeli missile defense
   system Arrow 2 and move to the system Arrow 3, so that it would be able to
   shoot down long-range missiles from a higher altitude, and specifically
   out of the atmosphere; in other words, the ability to confront Iran's
   advanced missiles in the event of war between the two sides."He concludes
   by saying that "the question that everyone asks here is: What is behind
   all this quantity of weapons? In fact, to understand what is going on, it
   is necessary to examine two issues. First, that the deals confirm that
   US-Israeli relations are stronger than the differences in priorities that
   have emerged between Obama's administration and Netanyahu's government
   during the recent period. Second, the basic hea dline behind these weapons
   is to ensure Israel's qualitative edge, without excluding that this could
   be in the context of the preparations for a new war, that Israel needs to
   implement its agenda, if the American efforts to impose a specific
   settlement on the region fail. (Description of source: Damascus Al-Watan
   Online in Arabic -- Website of the independent daily; URL:

   http://www.alwatan.sy/ http://www.alwatan.sy)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   29) Back to Top
   Israel Can Make Peace With Pa But Lots of Courage Required -- Netanyahu
   "Israel Can Make Peace With Pa But Lots of Courage Required -- Netanyahu"
   -- KUNA Headline - KUNA Online
   Monday July 12, 2010 07:48:38 GMT
   (KUWAIT NEWS AGENCY) - WASHINGTON, July 12 (KUNA) -- Israel's Prime
   Minister Benjamin Netanyahu affirmed here Sunday that his country can make
   peace with the Palestinian Authority but it requires "a lot of courage
   from our side, from me, and it also requires courage" from the Palestinian
   President.Appearing on Fox News Sunday, Netanyahu stressed that it is
   "going to be a very tough negotiation," adding, "I think we should get on
   with it and seek to negotiate peace between Israel and the Palestinian
   Authority. We'll have to deal with Hamas later." As for whether he
   believes that there can be a Palestinian state by 2012, Netanyahu said, "I
   think there can be a solution. It may be implemented over time," adding,
   "I think, can we have a negotiated peace? Yes. Can it be implemented by
   2012? I think it's going to take longer than that.&amp;qu ot; Furthermore, the
   Israeli Premier said that he thinks focus has to remain on the "real
   problem in the Middle East. It's not Israel, it's these dictatorships that
   are developing nuclear weapons with the specific goal of wiping Israel
   away." He continued saying that "Iran is closer to developing nuclear
   weapons today than it was a week ago or a month ago or a year ago. It's
   just moving on with its efforts." "I think there's a great danger to the
   world, not only to my country, but to the United States, to the Middle
   East, to peace, to all of humanity, from the prospect that such a regime,
   that brutalizes its own people, that sponsors terrorism more than any
   other regime in the world, that this regime acquires atomic bombs is very,
   very dangerous," he remarked.He added that "when the President (Obama)
   says that he's determined to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons
   and that all options are on the table, I think that's the right stat ement
   of policy."(Description of Source: Kuwait KUNA Online in English --
   Official news agency of the Kuwaiti Government; URL:
   http://www.kuna.net.kw)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   30) Back to Top
   Bulgarian Envoy to Washington Discusses Meeting With President Obama
   Interview with new Bulgarian Ambassador to the United States Elena
   Poptodorova by Sonya Kanikova in Washington; time not given; broadcast by
   Deutsche Welle Radio at 0407 GMT on 11 August - BTA Radiotelevizionen
   Monitor Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 14:32:51 GMT
   (Kanikova) Yesterday Elena Poptodorova officially took up the post of
   extraordinary and plenipotentiary ambassador of Bulgaria to the United
   States after President Barrack Obama received her credentials. The
   ceremony took place in the White House. The US President and Ambassador
   Poptodorova held a brief meeting at which they exchanged views on US-
   Bulgarian ties and priorities. In an interview for Deutsche Welle the new
   Bulgarian ambassador discussed Bulgaria's priorities that she had
   presented at the meeting.

   (Poptodorova) I outlined our main priorities. These include the importance
   that Bulgarians attach to abolishing visas for the United States, the
   importance of our economic cooperation and the efforts to promote it, and
   the need for more investments. Of course, I did not pass over the topic of
   the energy sector where the United States plays a particularly important
   role for diversifying Bulgaria's energy sources. Of course, we discussed
   the joint missile defense system and the need for the Lisbon summit to
   adopt the political declaration that is now being drafted in Brussels and
   that will mark the beginning of the efforts to build the system. We placed
   emphasis on the issue, even though we discussed it briefly.

   (Kanikova) What priorities did the US President identify in Bulgarian-US
   ties?

   (Poptodorova) What was most important for me was his understanding and
   assessment of the significance of Bulgaria-US relations and the importance
   that both Bulgaria and the United States attach to our bilateral ties.
   President Obama noted Bulgaria's valuable contribution to the global
   security operations and the fact that Bulgaria's consistent policy
   contributes to stability in Europe and outside it. Speaking about our
   bilateral ties, President Obama noted the importance of our economic ties
   and completely agreed that it was necessary to develop these ties and to
   promote investments in the future.

   (Kanikova) Did the President give any indication as to when there could be
   ne w developments in the visa talks?

   (Poptodorova) Frankly speaking, the President could not possible give a
   definite answer to this question. And I did not expect him to do that. My
   task was to draw his attention to the issue. I cannot set deadlines, but I
   hope that this will happen in the foreseeable future.

   (Kanikova) You said that you had discussed, albeit briefly, the missile
   defense system with President Obama. What was his stand on the matter?

   (Poptodorova) Of course, we discussed only political messages. He stressed
   that the National Security Council and the State Department were working
   very intensively on the declaration that will be adopted in Lisbon and
   that will mark the beginning of the efforts to build the system. From
   August to November work on the document will be done mainly in Brussels to
   draft the political framework of the missile defense system.

   (Kanikova) This was an interview with new Bulgarian Ambassador to the
   United S tates Elena Poptodorova. This is Sonya Kanikova from Deutsche
   Welle in Washington.

   (Description of Source: Sofia BTA Radiotelevizionen Monitor Online in
   Bulgarian -- Website of transcripts from radio, television, and print
   media provided by BTA press agency, which is state-owned but politically
   neutral)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   31) Back to Top
   US Building Asian 'NATO' To Encircle China
   By Dai Xu, Air Force Colonel and a military strategist, and translated by
   Zhang Ming'ai: "U.S. building 'Asian NATO' to encircle China" - Zhongguo
   Wang
   Thursday August 12, 2010 02:39:51 GMT
   (Description of Source: Beijing Zhongguo Wang in English --Official PRC
   portal site, hosted by the China Internet Information Center, under the
   auspices of the China International Publishing Group and the State Council
   Information Office. URL: http://www.china.org.cn/English/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   32) Back to Top
   NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO 119 -- NEWS IN BRIEF (3 of 6)
   Yonhap headline: "NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO 119 (August 12, 2010)" -
   Yonhap
   Thursday August 12, 2010 02:20:42 GMT
   SEOUL (Yonhap) -- Unusually heavy rainfalls caused human losses and heavy
   property damage in North Korea in July, the North's media reported on Aug.
   5.Flash floods also submerged about 5,560 houses and 350 public buildings
   and washed away some 14,850 hectares of farmland in the month, the North's
   official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said in a report, monitored in
   Seoul.The report said torrential rains caused human losses and damage to
   industrial facilities but gave no details.Thousands of hectares of
   farmland were submered in the provinces of South Hwanghae, North Pyongan,
   South Hamgyong, while roads and bridges were destroyed in South Pyongan
   and Kangwon provinces, it said.The KCNA did not report how much rain fell
   in North Korea in July, but South Korea's weather agency said on Aug. 4
   that an average rainfall in North Korea in July reached 315.8 millimeters,
   139 percent higher than normal. The agency forecast more rain in North
   Korea this weekend.One day later, the North's state Korean Central TV
   Broadcasting Station also said heavy rains have been continuing in North
   Korea after causing serious damage last month. "Relatively heavy downpours
   recently fell in North Pyongan, Jagang, Ryanggang and part of South
   Pyongan provinces."During the period from July 31 until noon of Aug. 6,
   Junggang area in Jagang Province received 191 millimeters of rain, the
   most in the country, followed by Wonsan, South Hamgyong Province, with
   188mm; Manpho, Jagang Province, with 156mm; Sijung, a county in the same
   province, with 139mm, the report said.Taechon and Chonma, both in North
   Pyongan Province, received 130mm and 129mm of rain, respectively, while
   113mm fell in Songwon of Jagang Province, it
   added.------------------------N. Korea Warns of 'Most Powerful'
   Retaliation If S. Korea Provokes WarSEOUL (Yonhap) -- North Korea warned
   on Aug. 5 of "the most powerful means" of retaliation if South Korea
   triggers a conflict during its naval drill off the west coast, where South
   Korea says the North torpedoed its warship in Ma rch.In a bulletin carried
   by the official Korean Central News Agency, the North's Committee for
   Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland said that the five-day drill that
   kicked off on Aug. 5 is a "deliberate military provocation aimed at
   invading the North.""Our people and the military will crush the provokers
   and their stronghold with the most powerful war tactics and strike means
   beyond imagination if they ever dare to set a fire," said the committee, a
   semi-official organ that handles inter-Korean matters.The North's military
   command overseeing the Yellow Sea border has already threatened "strong
   physical retaliation" against the South Korean drill, which came after
   Seoul and Washington conducted joint maritime exercises in the East Sea
   late last month.The North denies it sank the South Korean Ch'o'nan
   (Cheonan) warship even though a multinational investigation in May found
   Pyongyang responsible for the incident, which killed 46 sailors.The South
   Korean exercise comes as Seoul and Washington are mounting their pressure
   on Pyongyang to come clean on the deadly torpedoing by crafting further
   sanctions against the North.The North Korean committee did not clarify
   what weapons the country would use in the event of a clash with South
   Korean forces. The country is believed to have enough plutonium to create
   at least six nuclear bombs and has conducted two nuclear tests in the
   past.------------------------North Korea Reopens Hotel, Restaurant on
   Scenic Mt. KumgangSEOUL (Yonhap) -- North Korea has reopened a South
   Korean-built hotel and restaurant in Mt. Kumgang on its eastern coast and
   has started to receive visitors, a pro-Pyongyang daily published in Japan
   said on Aug. 7.The Choson Sinbo said Hotel Mt. Kumgang and the Mokrangwan
   restaurant opened for busines s on July 20 and will offer services to both
   foreign and local guests.However, the newspaper reported that none of the
   visitors has spent the night at the 215-ro om hotel."All the tourists so
   far have stayed overnight at Wonsan and only visited the mountains during
   the day," it said. Wonson is located further north in South Hamgyong
   Province.The hotel was built and operated by South Korea's Hyundai Asan
   Corporation and had been used by tourists from the South until 2008, when
   a North Korean guard shot and killed a female tourist at a nearby
   beach.Since the fatal shooting in July 2008, Seoul has banned tourists
   from the mountain report, with Pyongyang taking steps in early October to
   freeze all Hyundai assets and start its own independent operations.
   Hyundai employees at the site were also expelled from the resort.The tours
   to Mt. Kumgang -- hailed as a symbol of reconciliation between the
   countries -- began in late 1998, and nearly 2 million South Koreans
   visited the zone before they were suspended.South Korean's Unification
   Ministry said local companies invested an estimated 420 billion won
   (US$374 million) to develop the border resort that includes a golf course,
   several restaurants and a 157-room floating hotel called the
   Haekumgang.------------------------North Korea Legislates New Resident
   Administrative LawSEOUL (Yonhap) -- North Korea recently enacted a law
   aimed at providing better administrative support for the people in what
   appears to be an effort to facilitate the people's livelihoods in line
   with the country's goal in becoming a "prosperous nation" by 2012.The
   (North) Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported on Aug. 9 that the
   Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly passed the "resident
   administrative law."The KCNA said that the law stipulates "the principal
   issues" that an administrative clerk or other hands-on workers in
   provincial, municipal and the military bodies must uphold in properly
   carrying out residents' administrative work.Included in the "residents'
   administrative work" is the provision of housing, food, water and
   education , as well as support in areas of labor, commerce and public
   health, the report said.North Korea has implemented a series of military
   and economic campaigns to become a "Kangsong Taeguk" -- a great,
   prosperous and powerful nation -- by 2012, the centennial of Kim Il Sung
   (Kim Il-so'ng)'s birthday.North Korea watchers see the legislation as an
   effort for the country to reach the goal by 2012, the date at which many
   outside observers believe Pyongyang will engineer a hereditary power
   transfer from Kim Jong Il (Kim Cho'ng-il) to his third son, Jong-un, who
   is 27 years old.The KCNA also said that the SPA Presidium also legislated
   a labor protection law, which enforces mandatory education about work
   safety, the provision of supplies for labor protection, adequate rest and
   other principle issues relevant to the nation's labor protection
   policies.It also enacted a bill stipulating the principles and missions of
   the (North) Korea's Chamber of Commerce (KCC) in its operation s regarding
   economic exchanges. The KCC was established in August 2004, and a smaller
   inter-guideline was ratified by the North's Cabinet.North Korea passed
   eight bills, including those for farms, waterworks and environmental
   protection.------------------------U.N. Command, North Korea End Talks
   without ProgressSEOUL (Yonhap) -- North Korea and the American-led United
   Nations Command (UNC) ended their fourth round of talks on Aug. 10 over
   the sinking of a South Korean warship but made no progress in arranging
   general-level talks, an official at the UNC said.Colonel-level military
   officers from the two sides met for about two hours at the border village
   of Panmunjom (P'anmunjo'm), a day after the North's military fired a
   barrage of artillery shells near its western sea border with the South,
   straining already high tensions on the Korean P eninsula."During the Aug.
   10 meeting, the two sides basically confirmed each side's stance, and a
   new date was not proposed for follow -up talks," said the UNC official on
   condition of anonymity.In a brief statement released later in the day, the
   UNC said the latest talks ended with both sides "agreeing to conduct a
   colonel-level meeting at a date to be determined."The North's state-run
   Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) also carried a report on the talks with
   the UNC, disclosing its proposal for the formation of a joint inspection
   group with the U.S. for an early opening of bilateral general-level
   military talks."The U.S. forces side was urged to affirmatively respond to
   the DPRK's proposal for field investigation by the inspection group of its
   National Defense Commission for making an objective and scientific probe
   into the truth about the 'Ch'o'nan (Cheonan)' case," said the KCNA report.
   DPRK stands for North Korea's official name, the Democratic People's
   Republic of Korea.The colonel-level talks were designed to set up the
   date, agenda and protocols for general-level discussions on armistice
   issues related to the sinking of the Ch'o'nan (Cheonan) warship in March,
   in which 46 sailors were killed.A team of multinational investigators
   concluded in May that North Korea torpedoed the Ch'o'nan (Cheonan), but
   the North has denied any role in the sinking, denouncing the investigation
   results as a "sheer fabrication."In previous meetings held from last
   month, North Korea and the UNC had made little progress toward the
   general-level talks as North Korea repeated its denial of responsibility
   for the ship sinking and renewed calls to send its own team of inspectors
   to the South to review the investigation results.The UNC proposed a task
   force to jointly assess whether the sinking violated the armistice
   agreement that ended the 1950-53 Korean War.The general-level talks have
   served as a measure to ease tensions on the divided peninsula since
   1998.The UNC, which monitors the Korean War armistice, is led by the top
   U.S. commander in the South. The U.S. stations some 28,500 troops in South
   Korea.------------------------N. Korea Urges Humanitarian Treatment for S.
   Korean Pastor Returning HomeSEOUL (Yonhap) -- North Korea urged South
   Korea on Aug. 11 to be "humanitarian" to a South Korean pastor who will
   return home this weekend after visiting Pyongyang without Seoul's
   permission.But the Red Cross message, quoted by the North's official
   Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), did not contain any reply to an earlier
   message the South's Red Cross had sent to call for the release of the
   seven crew members of a South Korean fishing boat Pyongyang is
   holding.Rev. Han Sang-ryol of South Korea entered the socialist state by
   air June 12 and has since toured the North, reportedly giving speeches
   denouncing President Lee Myung-bak (Yi Myo'ng-pak) and his policies.He is
   set to return to South Korea on Aug. 15 through the truce village that
   straddles the heavily armed border between the two countries, the KCNA
   said.South and North K orea remain technically at war after the 1950-53
   Korean War ended in a truce. South Koreans are allowed to enter the North
   only with permission from the government.The North Korean report,
   monitored in Seoul, said the North's Red Cross sent its South Korean
   counterpart a message urging Seoul to treat Han "from a humanitarian
   perspective."South Korean authorities are planning to apprehend Han as
   soon as he steps on South Korean soil Sunday, which marks the 65th
   anniversary of Korea's liberation from Japan's colonial rule.The Red Cross
   message "stressed that it hopes for necessary measures to guarantee the
   safe return" of the pro-unification activist, the report said without
   elaborating.Earlier on Aug. 11, South Korea sent through its Red Cross a
   message calling on the North to release the crew of the fishing boat
   Daeseung "promptly in line with internat ional law and customs and on
   humanitarian grounds."The seizure took place on Aug. 8 amid heigh tening
   military tensions between the divided countries. South Korea is trying to
   figure out whether the boat trespassed into the North's exclusive economic
   zone. The North has not yet commented on the boat.(Description of Source:
   Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news agency of the ROK; URL:
   http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   33) Back to Top
   ROK Weeklies for 4-10 Aug 10
   To request additional processing, contact the OSC Customer Center at (800)
   205-8615 or e-mail EAG_Korea@rccb.osis.gov - Press Selection List
   Thursday August 12, 2010 01:10:04 GMT
   http://w eekly.chosun.co.kr/ http://weekly.chosun.co.kr/

   1. Article by senior editor Cho'ng Chang-yo'l on the results of research
   by Song T'ae-ho, professor of KAIST (Korea Advanced Institute of Science
   and Technology), on the torpedo that hit and sunk the ROK naval ship
   Ch'o'nan. The article notes questions raised by some specialists,
   including professor Yi Su'ng-ho'n of Virginia Polytechnic Institute, about
   the fact that the letters "No 1" (1 po'n) written on the North Korean
   torpedo propulsion system, which was retrieved from the waters near the
   site of the naval ship's sinking, did not disappear although they asserted
   that it should have been burned off at the point of explosion. Professor
   Song, through his specialist and detailed research, produced proof that
   the temperature of the back side of the disc of the torpedo propulsion
   system -- on which the letters were written -- had not risen even 0.1
   degree after the explosion, making it impossible for the letters to
   disappear despite the explosion. The article also notes that Song's paper
   on the calculation of the temperature of the disc was confirmed by 26
   fellow KAIST professors and opened to the public on KAIST's website.
   (1,200 pp 14-17)

   2. Article by Ha T'ae-kyo'ng, head of Open Radio for North Korea, on the
   North Korean power elite. The article states that based on secret sources
   in North Korea, the National Defense Commission (NDC) will begin taking
   control of the party through the party representatives conference to be
   held in September, which means that the NDC, centered on the military,
   will be defined as the supreme guiding organization in the North Korean
   Constitution; that in an emergency, Kim Cho'ng-u'n will be elected as the
   NDC chairman; and that of the power elite, Kim Jong Il (Kim Cho'ng-il) and
   Kim Cho'ng-u'n are relying on People's Armed Forces Minister Kim Yong Chun
   (Kim Yo'ng-ch'un) in the military field; on O Kuk Ryol (O Ku'k-ryo'l) in
   the field of opera tions against South Korea; on Jang Song Thaek (Chang
   So'ng-t'aek) in the fields of relations with China and finance; on Cho'n
   Pyo'ng-ho (Jon Pyong Ho) and Chu Kyu-ch'ang (Ju Kyu Chang) in the
   munitions field; on U Tong-ch'u'k (U Tong Chuk) in the counter-espionage
   field; on Ju Sang Song (Chu Sang-so'ng) in the field of public peace; on
   Jo Myong Rok (Cho Myo'ng-rok) and Kim Cho'ng-kak (Kim Jong Gak) in the
   field of military politics; on Ri Yong Mu (Ri Yong-mu, Yi Yong-mu) in the
   civilian field; and on Kang So'k-chu (Kang Sok Ju) in the field of
   relations with the United States. (1,500 pp 68-70)

   Seoul Weekly Dong-A in Korean -- Weekly newsmagazine (formerly
   transliterated as Chugan Tong-a) published by and similar in editorial
   orientation to Dong-A Ilbo. URL:

   http://weekly.donga.com/ http://weekly.donga.com/

   1. Article by reporters O'm Sang-hyo'n and Pae Su-kang on the election of
   Yi Chae-o of the Grand National Party (GNP) in the by-election held on 28
   J uly. The article notes that Yi and lawmakers close to him may form
   friendly relations with lawmaker Yi Sang-tu'k, the president's brother,
   and tense relations with the pro-Pak Ku'n-hye faction; that nonetheless,
   if lawmaker Yi Chae-o comes to the fore as a presidential candidate,
   lawmaker Yi Sang-tu'k may oppose him and form friendly relations with the
   pro-Pak faction; that lawmaker Yi Chae-o may maintain a certain distance
   from the president, lower himself for some time, and be engaged in
   politics in his own way; and that the pro-Pak faction is wary of lawmaker
   Yi Chae-o, worrying that he might pick a quarrel with the faction once
   again. (1,200 pp 16-17)

   2. Article by Chungang University professor Kim T'ae-hyo'n on the
   international politics situation surrounding the Northeast Asian region.
   The article states that the reason China is showing such a strong attitude
   toward the US-ROK plan for economic sanctions against North Korea and
   their joint military exercise is t hat China believes the United States
   and the ROK are trying to overthrow the North Korean regime, which China
   has protected to some extent; that therefore, the United States and the
   ROK may have to convince China that their goal is not to overthrow the
   North Korean regime but to change it; and that the political situation in
   this region depends on how the United States and the ROK can convince
   China that the change of the North Korean regime may stabilize the
   situation in this region and that the change will eventually benefit not
   only China but other countries as well. (1,200 pp 18-19)

   Seoul Hankyoreh21 in Korean -- Weekly newsmagazine (formerly
   transliterated as Hangyore 21) published by and similar in editorial
   orientation to Hankyoreh. URL:

   http://www.hani.co.kr/h21/ http://www.hani.co.kr/h21/

   1. Article by Cho'ng Uk-sik, head of the Peace Network, on the response by
   the United States and the ROK to the sinking of the ROK naval ship and the
   reaction of China and North Korea to the US-ROK response. The article
   states that even while North Korea is condemning the United States and the
   ROK, it makes it clear that it wants dialogue; that the denuclearization
   of the Korean peninsula and the advancement of a peace system through the
   Six-Party Talks can contribute greatly to the settlement of the conflict
   between the United States and China, whose relations have recently
   worsened because of their different policies toward North Korea; and that
   as China and Russia seem to want to resume the Six-Party Talks, and as the
   United States and Japan do not seem to have any reason to refuse them, it
   is deplorable that the ROK is not providing unconditional agreement to
   resume the talks. (1,500 pp 28-30)

   Seoul Sisa Journal in Korean -- Widely read independent weekly
   newsmagazine, which tends to be critical of US foreign policy. URL:

   http://www.sisapress.com/ http://www.sisapress.com/

   1. Article by reporter Cho'ng Rak -in on the phenomenon North Korean
   escapees' return to North Korea. The article notes that of around 20,000
   North Korean escapees who live in South Korea, about 200 returned to North
   Korea; that of those 200, some may have been North Korean spies when they
   first escaped from North Korea; that the North Korean Government takes a
   position of forgiveness to those escapees who have returned to North
   Korea; that the North Korean Government has a list of the escapees; that
   the South Korean system of managing North Korean escapees is seriously
   defective; and that one of the reasons why they are returning to North
   Korea is South Korean society's cold treatment and indifference toward the
   escapees. (1,500 pp 12-15)

   2. Article by Paek Su'ng-chu, head of Security and Strategy Center, Korea
   Institute for Defense Analyses, on the North Korean reaction to the US-ROK
   joint military exercise. The article states that one of the reasons North
   Korea stresses the strengthening of its nuc lear deterrent in reaction to
   the joint military exercise is that North Korea may believe the United
   States and the ROK may not be able to punish it militarily even if North
   Korea strengthens its nuclear deterrent. This is because after North
   Korea's first nuclear test, a South-North summit was held, and after its
   second, China shared the burden caused by the UN resolution on sanctions
   against North Korea. The article also notes that possible methods of
   strengthening its nuclear deterrent may include: first, conducting the
   four rounds of nuclear tests considered necessary for the completion of
   its nuclear weapon system; second, conducting a missile test which will
   display its technological capacity to load a nuclear weapon; and third,
   demonstrating its ability to manufacture a nuclear weapon using a method
   that does not involve the use of plutonium.

   The article continues by stating that North Korea may attempt to
   strengthen its nuclear deterrent at a time when its eff orts to escape the
   situation created by the sinking of the ROK naval ship Ch'o'nan are
   completely frustrated; that such an attempt may be made around the time of
   the G20 summit to be held in Seoul in November to maximize the symbolic
   effect of the attempt; that in conclusion, North Korea's assertion that it
   will strengthen its nuclear deterrent can be considered both as a
   multi-purpose threat and an advance notice of provocations; that while
   North Korea will advance its nuclear program regardless of the US-ROK
   joint military exercise, the program should be considered within the
   context of North Korea's power succession and the building of a powerful
   state. (1,000 pp 68-69)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   34) Back to Top
   RSA Ambassador to US Presents Credentials to President Obama
   Report by Staff Reporter: "Rasool Checks In with Obama" - Times Live
   Thursday August 12, 2010 04:06:34 GMT
   (Description of Source: Johannesburg Times Live in English -- Combined
   website of the credible privately-owned daily and weekly newspapers The
   Times and Sunday Times, with an emphasis on news from South Africa. The
   site also features multimedia and blogs. URL: www.timeslive.co.za)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   35) Back to Top
   Sensuality on TV Goes Way Too Far
   "View point" column by Kim Hyun-ki, Tokyo correspondent and Translation by
   the JoongAng Daily staff: "Sensuality on TV Goes Way Too Far" - JoongAng
   Daily Online
   Thursday August 12, 2010 00:45:52 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul JoongAng Daily Online in English -- Website
   of English-language daily which provides English-language summaries and
   full-texts of items published by the major center-right daily JoongAng
   Ilbo, as well as unique reportage; distributed as an insert to the Seoul
   edition of the International Herald Tribune; URL:
   http://joongangdaily.joins.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   36) Back to Top
   Korea Ranks High in Spending on Research - JoongAng Daily Online
   Thursday August 12, 2010 00:41:50 GMT
   (JOONGANG ILBO) - Korea spent 3.37 percent of its gross domestic product
   on research and development in 2008, the fourth highest amount among
   developed countries, according to a report released by the Knowledge
   Economy Ministry yesterday. Korea invested a total of 34.5 trillion won in
   R&amp;amp;D ($29.2 billion) in 2008, which is double the amount invested in
   2001 with 16.1 trillion won.

   R&amp;amp;D investment was led by the private sector, accounting for 75
   percent of the total, with the rest provided by government. This is
   similar to ratios in other countries including the United States, Japan,
   China and Germany.Most of the private sector R&amp;amp;D investments were
   conducted by large conglomerates, which made up 72 percent of the spending
   among b usinesses."In an effort to improve the balance of the country's
   overall R&amp;amp;D structure in the private sector, it is crucial that more
   investments should be made by small firms," the ministry said.In terms of
   the government's investment in the R&amp;amp;D sector, the amount has been
   growing around 10 percent each year since 2002, with a focus on
   application and development research rather than basic research.Most of
   the R&amp;amp;D budget was spent by the Knowledge Economy Ministry on
   developing industry convergence technology, followed by the ministries of
   education, defense and land."With the steady investment in R&amp;amp;D, the
   nation's level of scientific technology infrastructure is improving
   rapidly," said a ministry official, noting that the number of research
   papers submitted to gain international patents was the fourth largest in
   the world."There is a limit to gaining benefits, however, because the
   number of world's best-selling produ cts from Korea is decreasing and
   despite more investment on R&amp;amp;D, the performance is not resulting in
   the creation of new industries and markets," the official said.According
   to the ministry, the number of product categories in which Korea is a
   global leader in terms of market share has dropped from 87 in 2000 to 53
   in 2007, while China has increased from 698 to 1,128 products."Investing
   more money on R&amp;amp;D is more than necessary in that it leads to actual
   economic outcomes," said Jang Seong-keun, a research fellow at the LG
   Economic Research Institute. "But what's more important is to use the
   investment well so that it leads to revolutionary technology and
   products."(Description of Source: Seoul JoongAng Daily Online in English
   -- Website of English-language daily which provides English-language
   summaries and full-texts of items published by the major center-right
   daily JoongAng Ilbo, as well as unique reportage; distributed as an inser
   t to the Seoul edition of the International Herald Tribune; URL:
   http://joongangdaily.joins.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   37) Back to Top
   Turkish Islamist Press 11 Aug
   This product lists selected items carried in the Turkish Islamist press on
   11 August. To request additional processing, contact the OSC Customer
   Center at (800) 205-8615 or OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Turkey -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 10:06:45 GMT
   In a 573-word article entitled "Why is This Man Frightening us?" Yeni
   Safak columnist Ibrahim Karagul asserts that the international community
   needs to heed Cuban leader Fidel Castro's statements cautioning of the
   possibility of a catastrophic nuclear escalation resulting from a
   US-Israeli strike against Iran followed by the assassination of US
   President Barack Obama. Karagul argues that global events in the past 20
   years and increasingly frequent warnings of a nuclear war triggered by the
   Iranian or Korean crisis give reason to treat Castro's remarks as a
   serious alert from a seasoned statesman based on verifiable concerns about
   the future.

   In a 454-word article entitled "The Power of Change," Yeni Safak columnist
   Fehmi Koru cites the "power of change" as the driving force behind Deniz
   Baykal's resignation as Republican People's Party, CHP, leader following a
   video scandal after "years of resistance to efforts to depose him" and the
   decisions made in line with the political authority's demands at the
   recent Supreme Military Council, YAS, meeting, which differed from earlier
   "quiet " YAS meetings, where the military used to get what it wanted.
   Explaining the nature of this "change," Koru claims that the sequence of
   events started by the September 11 strikes and later by the global
   economic crunch boosted Turkey's international importance in a way that
   increased the ruling AKP's self-confidence, putting it in a position where
   it could push ahead with its democratic agenda. (Istanbul Yeni Safak
   (Ankara edition) in Turkish - Daily targeting Islamic reformists; close to
   the ruling Justice and Development Party - URL:

   http://www.yenisafak.com/ http://www.yenisafak.com ) Vakit

   Under the headline, "Dirty Tricks Against Oz," Vakit carries a front-page
   report which asserts that Prosecutor Zekeriya Oz is said to be under
   pressure from the Office of the Chief Public Prosecutor in Istanbul to
   withdraw from the Ergenekon investigation on the grounds that he has been
   discredited. According to the report, Oz has been resisting these
   pressures with the result that he has been inundated with irrelevant files
   so that he might be prevented from devoting proper attention to the
   Ergenekon probe.

   In a 1,354-word article entitled "Who is Encouraging Polarization, Who
   Wants Reconciliation?" Vakit Editor-in-Chief Hasan Karakaya slams the
   Peace and Democracy Party, BDP, for the way it is engaging in "despotism"
   in requiring Kurdish voters to "boycott" the forthcoming referendum on the
   constitutional amendment package, in this way "attempting to hold their
   will hostage." He claims that the BDP's stance on the referendum provides
   an inkling of the sort of Nazi and Stalinist practices that it would
   employ if it ever came to power "God forbid." Karakaya also responds to
   CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu and Nationalist Action Party, MHP, leader,
   Devlet Bahceli's statements accusing the AKP of pursuing policies that
   encourage nationwide polarization. He ass erts that perceived causes of
   social rift like the Alevi-Sunni, Turkish-Kurdish, Rightist-Leftist, and
   secular-Islamist disputes have always existed in this country, that the
   AKP cannot be accused of creating these disagreements, and that what it is
   trying to do is to prevent polarization by implementing peace and
   brotherhood projects.

   In a 626-word article entitled "Welcome Ramadan," Vakit columnist
   Abdurrahman Dilipak asserts that the holy significance of Ramadan has been
   accentuated this year through its coincidence with debates on the
   Constitution, the functions of the YAS and the HSYK, attempted coups,
   scandals involving the Turkish Armed Forces, etc. (Istanbul Anadolu'da
   Vakit (Internet Version-WWW) in Turkish - Islamic fundamentalist daily -
   URL:

   http://www.vakit.com.tr/ http://www.vakit.com.tr ) Zaman

   Under the headline, "Disinformation: Sole Recourse of Sledgehammer
   Suspects," Zaman runs a front-page report which accuses su spects in the
   so-called Sledgehammer coup plot of trying to invalidate evidence
   authenticated by three different courts of law through false claims.
   Former First Army Commander Cetin Dogan's recent press statement asserting
   that he never endorsed the CD-ROMs presented as evidence of the
   anti-government conspiracy with which Sledgehammer suspects are charged
   constitutes a concrete example of such attempts, the report says.

   In a 530-word article entitled "Who is Afraid of Nuclear Iran?" Zaman
   columnist Abdulhamit Bilici comments on the "huge" divide between the Arab
   street and the Arab governments in terms of the perception of a nuclear
   Iran, indicated by the "striking" results of an opinion poll conducted
   jointly by the University of Maryland and Zogby International.

   In a 406-word article entitled "The Situation of Political Parties in the
   Run-up to the Referendum," Zaman columnist Mehmet Kamis warns Prime
   Minister Erdoga n about the "aggressive" style he is using in his rally
   speeches calling for a yes vote in the upcoming referendum. Kamis claims
   that Erdogan's emphasis on his administration's overall performance during
   his campaign for the constitutional reforms is set to play into the hands
   of pro-status quo groups by misrepresenting the referendum as a general
   election.

   In a 482-word article entitled "Response to Criticism," Zaman columnist
   Ali Bulac censures certain commentators for subjecting him to what he
   describes as unwarranted criticism and claiming that he intends to vote
   against the constitutional amendment package in the forthcoming referendum
   based on an article published in a weekly newspaper in which he listed his
   objections to an amendment in the reform package that entails "positive
   discrimination" for women. (Istanbul Zaman (Ankara Edition) in Turkish -
   moderate pro-Islamic daily supportive of Nurcu Sect leader Fethullah Gulen
   - URL
   http://www.zaman.com.tr/ http://www.zaman.com.tr ) Today's Zaman

   In a 754-word article entitled "Is it Money That Keeps Turkey Denying What
   Happened to Armenians?" Today's Zaman columnist Orhan Kemal Cengiz argues
   that Turkey is unwilling to confront the facts about the 1915 events
   involving Ottoman Armenians because facing the past would entail "the
   shattering of so many national myths and taboos. (It) means questioning
   the identity of the founders of the Turkish Republic, the Turkish War of
   Independence, modernization, the Ottoman past and so many other things."
   (processing)

   In a 714-word article entitled "Another Step Forward," Today's Zaman
   columnist Dogu Ergil describes what took place at the latest YAS meeting
   as "a necessary step toward the normalization and democratization of the
   regime" through appointments to critical military posts designed to "rein
   in" Turkey's "maverick" military an d prevent it from waging a fight
   against perceived "internal enemies." (processing)

   In an 802-word article entitled "Erratic Behavior is a Loser," Today's
   Zaman columnist Yavuz Baydar interprets the results of the latest YAS
   meeting as meaning that "Turkey's fragile system passed yet another test
   of durability, as it became clear that the elected can - and hopefully
   will - prove that it is the power of the vote that defines who will decide
   on the appointments in the bureaucracy and - again hopefully - restore
   harmony within the state, and not vice versa." (processing) (Istanbul
   Today's Zaman (Ankara Edition) in English - moderate pro-Islamic daily
   supportive of Nurcu Sect leader Fethullah Gulen - Root URL:

   http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web )
   Milli Gazete

   In a 663-word article entitled "What is Happening in the Directorate of
   Religious Affairs?" Milli Gazete columnist Mehmet Sevket Eygi holds a
   "reformist" group within the Directorate of Religious Affairs that
   "represents itself as an expert par excellence in the interpretation of
   the Koran" responsible for the "disgraceful" campaign for "interreligious
   dialog" that some time ago took the form of a "farce" in Mardin where
   Muslim clerics and priests from various churches crossed a wooden bridge
   symbolizing As-Sirat amid the sound of bells and the Islamic call to
   prayer. Eygi also warns of what he describes as efforts by a pro-Fazlur
   Rahman sect to seize control of the Directorate of Religious Affairs.
   (Istanbul Milli Gazete (Internet Version-WWW) in Turkish - Mouthpiece of
   the Felicity Party (SP), affiliated with Necmettin Erbakan's National View
   Organization - URL:

   http://www.milligazete.com/ http://www.milligazete.com ) Bugun

   In a 694-word article entitled "Have You Heard That a Kurdish Autonomous
   Region Has Been Declared?" Bug un columnist Gulay Gokturk argues that
   Kurdish groups' declaration of "democratic autonomy" in the southeast
   following the recent "Democratic Society Congress" is part of a
   potentially "suicidal" plan by the terrorist PKK and the Turkish "deep
   state" to set the scene for ethnic disturbances in the region with the
   ultimate intention of creating a major political crisis that would
   paralyze the ruling AKP and allow the "deep state" to once more take the
   reins of power. (Istanbul Bugun (Ankara edition) in Turkish - Conservative
   paper supportive of the AKP government - URL:

   http://bugun.com.tr/ http://bugun.com.tr )

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   38) Back to Top
   Foreign Buyers Arrive in Zimbabwe To Purchase Diamond Following Partial
   Ban Lift - AFP (World Service)
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 14:10:31 GMT
   (Description of Source: Paris AFP (World Service) in English -- world news
   service of the independent French news agency Agence France Presse)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   39) Back to Top
   Twin Panda Cubs Born in Japan: China's Breeding Center
   Xinhua: "Twin Panda Cubs Born in Japan: China's Breeding Center" - Xinhua
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 14:49:13 GMT
   CHENGDU, Aug. 11 (Xinhua) - A giant panda gave birth to twins Wednesday
   morning at an animal park in Japan, a panda breeding research base in
   southwest China's Sichuan Province said Wednesday.

   The male-female twin cubs were delivered at the Shirahama Animal Park in
   Wakayama Prefecture in Japan, the Chengdu Research Base of Giant Panda
   Breeding, whose specialists are working with the park in panda breeding
   research, said in a statement.The male cub, weighing 158 grams, was born
   first at 6:40 a.m. (Beijing Time), an hour earlier than his 123-gram
   sister."The cubs and their mother, Liang Bin, are in good conditions", the
   statement said.Liang Bin conceived the cubs after mating with Yong Ming,
   another panda at the Japanese park, in March.The 10-year-old mother panda
   was also born in Japan shortly after her mother, Mei Mei, came to Japan in
   July 2000 from Sichuan.Besides Wednesday's delivery, Liang Bin had
   previously given birth to a pair of twins.China and Japan jointly launched
   a panda breeding research program in 1994, after which 12 panda cubs have
   been born in Japan and 11 of them remain alive.China has established the
   panda-breeding programs in collaboration with Japan, the United States and
   European countries. The program seeks to increase global understanding of
   the endangered species' feeding and breeding.All the pandas born overseas
   belong to China.Meanwhile, Sichuan is experiencing a panda "baby boom"
   with 16 cubs born so far this year in the Chengdu base and the Wolong
   Giant Panda Protection and Research Center.More than 10 pandas are
   expected to give birth over the next one or two months at the Wolong
   center.About 1,600 giant pandas live in the wilds of China, mostly in
   Sichuan Province and the northwestern provinces of Shaanxi and Gansu.
   Another 290 pandas are in captive-bred programs worldwide, mainly in the
   Chinese mainland.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in En glish --
   China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China
   News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   40) Back to Top
   Okinawa Local TV Evening News 11 Aug 10
   For a copy of the video, contact GSG_GVP_VideoOps@rccb.osis.gov or the OSC
   Customer Center at (800) 205-8615. Selected video also available at
   OpenSource.gov. - Japan -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 11:48:39 GMT
   The main local news segment of "Haisai News 610" carries as its 1st story
   a 2.5-minute report on a meeting held between Deputy Chief Cabinet
   Secretary Tetsuro Fukuyama, accompanied b y Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary
   Kinya Takino, and Okinawa Governor Hirokazu Nakaima at the Okinawa
   Prefectural Government building. Fukuyama explained events leading to a
   Japan-US agreement on the relocation of Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS)
   Futenma to Henoko in Nago. The governor said that the agreement was a
   180-degree change from the Okinawan residents' desire to have the Futenma
   relocated outside of Okinawa.The 2nd story of the day is a 2-minute report
   on local residents conducting a noise survey produced by aircraft at
   Kadena Air Base The survey was made today between 0600 and 2200, during
   which a total of 128 takeoffs and landings were recorded, making a maximum
   of 101.2 decibel of noise.The 3rd story of the day is a 2-minute report on
   Ginowan residents appealing at the Supreme Court for the suspension of
   late night and early morning flights from MCAS Futenma.

   The 4th story is a 2-minute report on an annual photo exhibition held at
   Ginowan City Hall to mark th e 6th year anniversary of the US military
   helicopter crash to Okinawa International University campus.Naha NHK
   Television in Japanese is the Naha-based station of Japan's public
   broadcast network Nippon Hoso Kyokai (NHK). Naha OTV Television in
   Japanese, "OTV Super News" 0917-0955 GMT (1817-1855 local) Click here to
   view the streamed video in .wmv formatThe main local news segment of "OTV
   Super News" carries as its 1st story a 2-minute report on Deputy Chief
   Cabinet Secretary Tetsuro Fukuyama who visited Okinawa to explain to
   Okinawa Governor Nakaima an outline of a Japan-US agreement announced in
   late May on the relocation of Futenma Air Station to Henoko. After his
   meeting with the governor, Fukuyama said to reporters that he could not
   get the governor's approval of the relocation plan.The 2nd story of the
   day is a 2-minute report on a group of Ginowan residents appealed to the
   supreme court to stop night-time flights at Futenma Air Station.

   The 3rd story of the day is a 1-minute report on Kadena residents
   conducting a survey today on noises emitted by aircraft at Kadena Air
   Base. Results of today's study will be disclosed to the public.Naha OTV
   Television in Japanese is an affiliate of Fuji Television, part of the
   Fuji-Sankei group. Naha RBC Television in Japanese, "RBC THE NEWS"
   0915-0955 GMT (1815-1855 local) Click here to view the streamed video in
   .wmv formatThe main local news segment of "RBC THE NEWS" carries as its
   1st story a -minute report on the Fukuyama-Nakaima meeting on the planned
   relocation of the Futenma to Henoko. Fukuyama explained, among other
   things, why the Hatoyama administration had to agree on the relocation
   plan. Fukuyama said that the central government would continue to hold
   discussions with Okinawa on the issue.Naha RBC Television in Japanese is
   affiliated with TBS Television, which has ties with major daily Mainichi
   Shimbun. Naha QAB Television in Japanese, "Sta tion Q" 0928-0953 GMT
   (1828-1853 local) Click here to view the streamed video in .wmv format

   "Station Q" carries as its 1st story a 1.5-minute report on the
   Nakaima-Fukuyama meeting on the Futenma's relocation to Henoko. Nakaima
   said that although he appreciated Fukuima's explanations, he still had
   many questions to ask over the relocation issue.The 2nd story of the day
   is a 1-minute report on the survey conducted to measure noises from
   aircraft at the Kadena Air Base.Naha QAB Television in Japanese is an
   affiliate of TV Asahi, owned by major daily Asahi Shimbun.

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   41) Back to Top
   Xinhua 'Interview': EAC, EU Trade Pact To Benefit Kenya's Horticultural
   Sector
   Xinhua "Interview" by Daniel Ooko: "EAC, EU Trade Pact To Benefit Kenya's
   Horticultural Sector" - Xinhua
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 11:48:29 GMT
   NAIROBI, Aug. 11 (Xinhua) -- Kenya's horticultural industry is set to
   benefit from the soon to be signed trade pact between the East Africa
   Community (EAC) and the European Union (EU) in terms of market access.

   Jane Ngige, the CEO of the Kenya Flower Council said in an interview with
   Xinhua on Wednesday that Kenya which exports 1,000 tonnes of fruit and
   vegetables every day to Europe is expected to double its exports to EU
   with the signing of the Economic Partnerships Agreement between the EAC
   and EU in November."Horticulture industry is expected to get a boast after
   the signing of the agreement between the EU and EAC in November. We expect
   to sustain the same momentum because we w ill be accessing the European
   markets without even paying tariffs," she said.The EU has set a November
   deadline to conclude long-running negotiations with East Africa over the
   signing of a new economic partnership agreement (EPA).The new deadline
   followed an unsuccessful round of talks in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania in June
   this which was aimed at unlocking a stalemate on the signing of a
   framework on the Economic Partnership Agreement (FEPA).The Kenyan
   horticulture industry which provides thousands of jobs in a country with a
   high unemployment rate was hit hard by airport closures across Europe in
   April this year after European airspace was closed down because of the
   cloud of volcano ash in the sky.Industry insiders estimated that Kenya
   lost between 3 million dollars to 4 million dollars a day in lost
   horticulture exports as the closures continued in April.In cold storage
   units and warehouses in the key growing area of Naivasha, about 90
   kilometres of southwest of Nairobi and in the capital Nairobi vegetables
   had to rot and flowers wilt as the airport closures continued.The
   situation forced the growers to dump hundreds of tons of vegetables and
   millions of flowers.Ngige said the EU-EAC trade pact will enable the
   sector to meet the increasing demand for top quality produce in the export
   market. "After the signing of the agreement, we will be getting more
   orders and the returns will be good because we will be accessing European
   markets freely," she said after Kenya Commercial Bank (KCB) announced a 4
   million shillings sponsorship for the upcoming annual Naivasha
   Horticultural Fair set to take place in September this year.Bank officials
   said the move is another step by the regional bank to widen its footprint
   in all economic sectors as it continues its growth momentum across the
   five East Africa countries where it operates. "Naivasha is host to about
   50 multinational flower and horticultural companies. This is a huge growth
   opport unity for KCB that is the region's largest bank in terms of asset
   base standing at over 226 billion shillings (2.5 billion U.S. dollars),"
   said KCB Divisional Director in charge of corporate banking Wilfred
   Sang.Last year vegetable and flower exports from Kenya were worth close to
   900 million U.S. dollars, making it the biggest foreign exchange earner
   and contributing roughly one fifth of the entire economy.This represented
   14.8 percent drop in the quantity of exports and a decline of 2.9 percent
   in value expressed in Kenya shillings.The Greek debt crisis in June this
   year also filtered into Kenya's horticultural industry, causing foreign
   exchange losses running into billions of shillings as the country
   reassesses its overdependency on the turbulent European Union
   market.Players said then the crisis that had battered investor confidence
   across Europe and pushed the euro to its lowest level in 13 months had
   significantly eroded their earnings, delaying their recovery fro m other
   recent shocks like drought, the global financial crisis and the recent
   export interruption by the Iceland volcano eruption.Kenya sells 82 percent
   of her horticultural exports in EU countries where payment is made in the
   Euro, leaving only 18 percent to the dollar dominated destinations of the
   United States, Middle East, Japan and Russia.For many years, the industry
   has relied on the stability of the euro to navigate through tough economic
   times, including the global economic crisis of last year.(Description of
   Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for
   English-language audiences (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   42) Back to Top
   Bladerunner 51 Boat 'Leap Forward', Concern for US - Voice of the Islamic
   Republic of Iran Radio 1
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 09:28:04 GMT
   (IRGC) said that Iran has obtained the world's fastest missile-launching
   warship. According to Admiral Ali Fadavi, while this vessel was being
   transported from South Africa, it was surrounded by fifteen 50-meter long
   US ships for 18 hours. It was delivered to Iran under the escort of the
   Guards Corps. You certainly want to hear more details about it. Seyyed
   Mehdi Ja'fari has the report.

   (Correspondent) Admiral Ali Fadavi's first news conference in his capacity
   as commander of the IRGC navy, the force that moved to Bandar-e Abbas with
   its structure a while ago in order to implement the new strategy of the
   Guards Corps, based on patrolling the sea (as heard), had a lot of
   messages for domestic and foreign audiences. At his news conference,
   Fadavi said that the Guards Corps obtained the world's fastest British
   boat Bladerunner 51 for the first time. The way Iran obtained this boat
   has strongly worried Obama, and it was so important that the commander of
   the IRGC navy described its purchase as a leap forward in the capability
   of the navy.(Ali Fadavi) When this vessel was transported from South
   Africa to Iran one and a half years ago, the ship carrying this vessel was
   surrounded by US ships from 0600 to 2200 (as heard). After an IRGC
   helicopter loaded missile-launching vessels and a special IRGC naval unit
   on that ship, the Americans did not dare to touch and halt the ship. This
   vessel was made by a British company. As all media said, it is a
   Bladerunner vessel.The design of this ship is totally different. I know
   personally people who in fact designed it. They worked for 30 years to
   ensure that this ship is not just a little bit more advanced, but
   represents a leap forward in shipbuilding in the world.This vessel is at
   our disposal. In 1390 (Iranian year starting from 20 March 2010), there
   will be a greater number of them in the Guards Corps navy. It is not that
   we do not have them now, we do have them, but if we will have more of them
   in the 15th (as heard).The vessel is for sailing contests, it is not a
   missile or torpedo-launching ship. This is something that people use for
   sailing contests in the world. The thing that turns it into the ship which
   made the US President express concern and say that he will personally
   follow up how this ship went (to Iran) at a time when they (Iranians) are
   being sanctioned in European countries and elsewhere, is not the ship
   itself. The main thing is the work that has been done here. The
   missile-launcher was not installed on this ship elsewhere, it was
   installed here. We did the same thing last year, too. For certain, a
   country like Britain is hundreds of years ahead of other countries in the
   issue of designing boats. We do not need to start from where they started.
   We are starting from the point they have reached now - by attaining the
   highest peaks of technology. During the war (presumably Iran-Iraq war), we
   bought a ship from Britain. During the following years, we bought (ships)
   from Italy. Now we bought it from the British again. This means that
   sanctions and statements do not mean that anybody can control
   it.(Correspondent) Since the acquisition of the Bladerunner-51, which
   according to The New York Times, was carried out by cheating the United
   States and came from the South African port of Durban, the Guards Corps
   has turned this British boat into a nightmare for US ships in the Persian
   Gulf through alterations and the installation of missile-launchers. This
   made US Defense Secretary Robert Gates speak for the first time about the
   need to change the strategy of using warships.(Ali Fadavi) You should read
   the latest statements US Defense Secretary Gates made at a US naval base
   about 35-36 days ago. This is the first time in American history that a US
   secretary of defense questioned the strategies that had been entrenched in
   US military capabilities for several hundreds of years - in terms of the
   capabilities of its Guards Corps naval forces (as heard). He says we
   (changing tack), for example, as one of permanent strategies of the
   American navy, which played its specific role, he is talking about the
   elimination of aircraft carriers - in terms of the damage that it can
   experience in confrontation with the IRGC forces (as heard). He said since
   they can experience such damage from the Guards Corps navy, we must
   consider altering our way of thinking.(Description of Source: Tehran Voice
   of the Islamic Republic of Iran Radio 1 in Persian -- Iranian state-run
   radio, officially controlled by the office of the supreme leader)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries re garding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   43) Back to Top
   People's Daily Online: Meaning Behind British PM's Diplomatic Moves
   By People's Daily Online: "Meaning behind British PM's diplomatic moves" -
   Renmin Ribao
   Thursday August 12, 2010 02:39:51 GMT
   (Description of Source: Beijing People's Daily Online in English --
   Internet-only English version of Renmin Ribao, the daily newspaper of the
   CPC Central Committee. URL: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   44) Back to Top
   Iranian Commentary Details WikiLeaks Disclosures Made From Classified
   Documents
   Unattributed commentary: "Revelation of 91,000 Classified Documents of US
   War in Afghanistan" - Javan Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 15:05:13 GMT
   According to a report by Javan news agency, WikiLeaks is an international
   organization based in Sweden, which started its operations in 2007 through
   an online website and has been publishing other country's classified
   documents from time to time. In an unprecedented move, this website
   published more than 91,000 classified documents of the Pentagon and other
   US intelligence agencies about the US operations in Afghanistan between
   2004 and 2009 and has caused a lot of objections.

   The published documents have several main points that have made US,
   Pakistani, Afghan, and Polish officials react. Perhaps o ther governments
   might be forced to react to its content as well. Taliban Have Heat-Seeking
   Missiles

   The documents published by WikiLeaks confirm that the Taliban have
   heat-seeking antiaircraft missiles, which they are using to target
   American helicopters. Although, to date the US officials have denied this
   fact, in May 2007 for instance an American Chinook helicopter crashed in
   Afghanistan's Helmand Province because of a missile, causing the death of
   all on board. At that time, the Americans claimed that the incident was
   because of random gunfire, but the documents published by WikiLeaks show
   that the Taliban used heat-seeking missiles to target the helicopter. The
   document further mentions that, on the basis of reports available on the
   type of projectile, the launch rate, and the type of power of the
   projectile, the missile was bigger than an RPG (rocket-propelled grenade)
   and was likely to be a surface-to-air missile. Pakistani Intelligence
   Service Is Helping Ta liban

   Some parts of the documents reveal that the Pakistani intelligence service
   Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) was arming the Taliban against India, of
   which the Indians were aware of course. In one of the documents for
   example, it shows that the ISI paid $15,000 to the Taliban to assassinate
   Indian contractors in Afghanistan. Another document reveals that Pakistan
   Army Chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani ordered the attacks on the Indian
   Embassy in Afghanistan. US War Crimes

   One of the most controversial issues that challenge the US Government is
   that some of the revealed documents show the US soldiers committing war
   crimes in Afghanistan and the US military keeping it a secret. WikiLeaks
   founder Julian Assange said that the war crimes were kept secret. He said
   that there are thousands of pages that show the war crimes and the US
   Government must prosecute its own soldiers instead of criticizing him.
   According to The Guardian, the WikiLeaks documents sho w attacks on
   civilians in Afghanistan in 144 instances. In one instance in 2007, US
   soldiers killed 19 and injured 50 unarmed Afghan civilians in Jalalabad
   city just because someone shot at them. Reactions

   Washington has condemned the leaking of the classified documents and said
   this action will hamper US national security. White House Spokesperson
   Robert Gibbs tried to cover over the intelligence scandal and termed these
   classified documents inconsequential, saying that these documents do not
   reveal anything new about the nature of war in Afghanistan.

   The Pentagon announced that it may take weeks to assess the real impact of
   the leaking of these 91,000 classified documents of US operations in
   Afghanistan. The US Defense Department plans to investigate the leaks to
   make sure that it does not endanger its military personnel and NATO forces
   in Afghanistan. The Pentagon announced that currently it is engaged in an
   inquiry into the source of the leaked classifi ed intelligence, which is
   the largest scandal in US history. In this regard, Pentagon Spokesman
   Colonel Lapan said that it might take days or weeks to evaluate these
   documents, which have been called the Afghanistan war diaries. According
   to some analysts, the leaked documents might also hamper the White House
   efforts to attract more support for the war in Afghanistan.

   Condemning the leaks, Pakistan also called the documents baseless and
   lacking credibility. After the release of the documents, Afghan President
   Hamid Karzai said that the news shocked him. His office also confirmed
   that the documents clearly endorse the view that victory over terrorism
   will be gained by the targeting of terrorist safe houses and their
   financial and ideological sources, not by attacking villages.

   Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski has regretted the publication of
   these documents and said that it will endanger the lives of Polish
   soldiers in Afghanistan. Iran, WikiLeaks Documents

   Some of the leaked 91,000 classified documents are about Iran and its role
   in using the Taliban to wage a secret intelligence war against the US. In
   one part of the documents, it has been mentioned that with the help of a
   seven-member group of Taliban leaders, Iran valued at $1,700 the killing
   of an Afghan soldier and $3,500 for the killing of an Afghan official.
   Another report claims that the Iranian intelligence agency spent more than
   $2 million in helping Golboddin Hekmatyar in Afghanistan. In recent times,
   these accusations have been repeated in American intelligence reports, but
   Iran has constantly denied destabilizing Afghanistan.

   (Description of Source: Tehran Javan Online in Persian -- website of
   hardline conservative daily affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards
   Corps (IRGC); www.javannewspaper.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   45) Back to Top
   Estonia To Sign Antarctic Environmental Protocol
   "Estonia To Accede to Environmental Protocol to Antarctic Treaty" -- BNS
   headline - BNS
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 18:44:39 GMT
   According to the covering letter to the Environment Ministry bill
   accession to the protocol will entitle Estonia to participate with the
   right of vote in Antarctic Treaty consultative meetings. Until the present
   Estonia has taken part in Antarctic Treaty consultative meetings without
   the right of vote. Accession to the protocol is also the precondition for
   the organization of any activity in territories regulated by the Antarctic
   Treaty.

   At present there are about 40 research stations from 26 countries in
   Antarctica. In 2001 an Estonian Antarctic Expedition (ESTANTEX) project
   was drawn up in cooperation with an initiative group of Estonian polar
   explorers and the Foreign Ministry by which creation of a base on the Wood
   Bay coast in Antarctica is being planned. The precondition for the
   organization of expeditions is accession to the Protocol on Environmental
   Protection to the Antarctic Treaty.

   On accession to the protocol Estonia will become member of CEP (Committee
   on Environmental Protection). Accession to the protocol will also make it
   possible for Estonia to accede to the Protocol on Environmental Protection
   to the Antarctic Treaty (COMNAP). Already in June 2004 COMNAP endorsed the
   Estonian intention to accede, setting accession to the protocol as a
   preliminary condition.

   The Antarctic Treaty was signed in 1959 in Washington and it entered into
   force in 1961. By the treaty the territorial claims of seven countries to
   different parts of the continent were frozen and all territories and
   glaciers south of the 60th latitude were declared an area where any
   military activity is prohibited and which is designated for an indefinite
   period as an object of peaceful research and international scientific
   cooperation. Estonia acceded to the Antarctic Treaty as the 45th country
   and it entered into force with respect to Estonia from May 17, 2001.

   The Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty was drawn
   up on October 4, 1991 Madrid and it entered into force from January 14,
   1998. The protocol establishes strict environmental requirements in the
   Antarctic Treaty territory and any activity in connection with mineral
   resources other than for the aim of science was prohibited. Besides, a
   specially protected and organized system of territories was introduced and
   principles of the assessment of the environmental impact of human activity
   were established.

   (Description of Source: Tallinn BNS in English -- Baltic News Service, the
   largest private news agency in the Baltic States, providing news on
   political developments in all three Baltic countries; URL:
   http://www.bns.ee)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   46) Back to Top
   Nasrallahs Got a Surprise
   "Nasrallahs Got a Surprise" -- NOW Lebanon Headline - NOW Lebanon
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 07:16:07 GMT
   Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said on Tuesday that
   he

   will reveal during his August 9 press conference irrefutable evidence
   provingthat Israel was behind the 2005 assassination of former Prime
   Minister RafikHariri.During a speech marking the fourth anniversary of the
   2006 July War, he saidthat the Jewish State had a plan to frame Hezbollah
   in the killing of Hariri.Following next weeks conference, Nasrallah said
   the Lebanese government "shouldappoint a responsible (authority on the
   issue) if it finds what I say to benoteworthy.""We are ready to
   collaborate with the government."He addressed Tuesdays clashes between the
   Israeli and Lebanese troops, sayingResistance fighters in South Lebanon
   were instructed to remain calm and notinterfere in the clashes.However, he
   said that the Resistance placed itself at the disposal of the LAFin case
   it needed assistance.The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and Lebanese Armed
   Forces (LAF) exchanged firealong the northernmost section of their common
   border on Tuesday, with eachside accusing the other of having started the
   fighting.Two Lebanese soldiers, a journalist and a senior Israeli officer
   were killed inthe cla shes, according to sources from both sides.The
   Hezbollah chief commended the Lebanese army soldiers, calling
   themcourageous.He said that if Hezbollah were to intervene in Tuesdays
   clashes, some will tryand accuse the party of taking the opportunity to
   obstruct the Special Tribunalfor Lebanon (STL).He said, however, that the
   Resistance will "cut off the hands of Israel" if itwere to attack the
   Lebanese army."The LAF protects the Resistance, just as the Resistance
   protects the LAF, andthe Lebanese people protect the LAF and the
   Resistance. This is the formula."Meanwhile, UN Secretary General Ban
   Ki-moon urged maximum restraint Tuesdayafter the Lebanese-Israeli
   clashes.Ban, who is on a visit to Japan, said through his spokesperson,
   Martin Nesirky,that he was deeply concerned at the exchange of fire
   between Lebanese andIsraeli forces.The UN boss urged all parties to
   maintain the cessation of hostilities andensure full respect of UN
   Security Council Resolution 1701.The United States and the European Union
   also urged restraint on both sides.-NOW Lebanon(Description of Source:
   Beirut NOW Lebanon in English -- A privately-funded pro-14 March
   coalition, anti-Syria news website; URL: www.nowlebanon.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   47) Back to Top
   Pakistan Press Nawa-e Waqt 11 Aug 10
   To request additional processing, contact the OSC Customer Center at (800)
   205-8615 or OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Nawa-e Waqt
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 14:19:40 GMT
   pictures on page 1 show Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani talking to the
   flood-affected people, people i n Sukkur shifting to safer places in view
   of possible flood tide, and Nawaz Sharif addressing the flood-affected
   people at Dasu. The lower half of the page has quarter-page advertisement.
   Lead Stories: Report by special correspondent: Floodwater enters into
   Kalabagh, Harnai; people migrating to safer places; 6 million people need
   food immediately

   Detailed account of flood devastations in different parts of the country.
   (pp 1, 9; 2,000 words) Online report: The government not to rest until
   rehabilitation of flood-affected people: President Zardari (pp 1, 8; 300
   words) Online report: We will not hesitate to stop development work to
   assist flood-hit people: Prime minister; political parties to be taken
   into confidence about situation (pp 1, 9; 200 words) Report by special
   correspondent: I have come to share grief of flood-affected people; Hazara
   province to come into being at proper time: Nawaz Sharif, PML-N (Pakistan
   Muslim League-Nawaz) chief (pp 1, 9; 400 words) Repor t by special
   correspondent: Leaders of Hazara province movement wear black armbands to
   protest Nawaz Sharif's arrival (pp 1, 9; 200 words) Report on press
   release: The government should hand over aid received from abroad to
   affected provinces: Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif (pp 1, 9; 400
   words) Report by Suhail Abdul Nasir: Ten foreign helicopters flying over
   country's airspace to assist flood-affected people; six helicopters
   provided by US, four by Afghanistan; US helicopters take off from Tarbela;
   return at night (pp 1, 9; 300 words) NNI report: We will decide about
   construction of Kalabagh Dam if provinces agree: Deputy Information
   Minister (pp 1, 9; 500 words) Report by Tariq Ismail: Negligence of Taunsa
   Barrage management; dozens of village destroyed (pp 1, 9; 400 words) APP
   report: General Kayani visits affected areas in Sind, Balochistan, Punjab
   (pp 1, 9; 200 words) Report by special correspondent: Finance minister
   briefs ambassadors on flood devastations (pp 1, 9; 200 words) Report by
   special correspondent: We will assist Pakistan in accordance with its
   needs: Chinese ambassador (pp 1, 9; 200 words) AFP report: Pakistan should
   learn from floods, build more and more dams: US ambassador; US secretary
   of state says this is best time to win support of Pakistani people; US
   Ambassador Patterson says 6 million people affected, US soldiers providing
   assistance (pp 1, 9; 500 words) SANA report: Allegation of violating
   constitution; Sind High Court declares former military ruler Pervez
   Musharraf proclaimed offender (pp 1, 9; 200 words) APP report: President's
   UK visit was scheduled 3 months ago: Information minister (pp 1, 9; 200
   words) Internet news: Defense minister confirms tossing of shoe at
   President Zardari (pp 1, 9; 100 words) Report by special correspondent:
   PEPCO suffers loss of 4 billion rupees (PRe) because of floods; grid
   stations in Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa destroyed: Minister for water, power (pp
   1, 9; 300 words) Report by special correspondent: National Security
   Council sends its recommendations to prime minister (pp 1, 9; 300 words)
   Nawa-e Waqt report: No one can change genuine constitution; attempt to
   introduce presidential system failed; powers were returned to prime
   minister under public pressure: Chief justice (pp 1, 9; 800 words) Report
   by special correspondent: Minorities free to follow their religion:
   President, prime minister (pp 1, 9; 300 words) Report by Ittrat Jaffery:
   Pakistan's talks with IMF to be held as scheduled (pp 1, 8; 200 words) BBC
   report: Iraq, Afghan wars; severe financial h ardship; post of one
   military commander, 50 generals, admirals quashed; announcement to cut
   defense budget (pp 1, 9; 400 words) Page 2: News From Islamabad,
   Rawalpindi

   Page 2 has a column besides local news and advertisements. Column by Taiba
   Zia: Imran Khan; future prime minister

   The column discusses statement of Imran Khan that he would be the next
   prime minister of the country. Imran Khan 's popularity is growing among
   the Pakistani-US people. (800 words) Page 3: National, International
   Reports

   Page 3 has national and international news. Column by Rafique Dogar:
   President Zardari had not gone to London but was summoned

   The column terms the president's visit to London as mission 'save me, make
   me do any service in return' mission. (800 words) SANA report:
   Afghanistan; deaths of civilians increased by 31 percent: UN (pp 3, 10;
   200 words) Page 4: News From Islamabad's Suburbs Column by Saeed Aasi:
   Land about to be ruined; write what I say

   The column discusses havoc wreaked by floods in the country. (800 words)
   Page 5: Business, Commerce Column by Dr Ajmal Niazi: Government, folly

   The column opposes President Zardari's European tour at a time when the
   country was reeling under worst floods. (800 words) Page 6: Continuation
   of Reports From Other Pages; Advertisements Page 7: Classified Ads Page 8:
   Continuation of Reports From Other Page s Page 9: Continuation of Reports
   From Other Pages Page 10: Continuation of Reports From Other Pages Page
   11: Sports World Page 12: National, International Reports

   Prominent pictures on page 12 show Marwi Memon, Pakistan Muslim
   League-Qaide-Azam (PML-Q) leader, talking to the Nawa-e Waqt, and Pir
   Afzal Qadri, Sunni Ittehad Council vice chairman, speaking in Waqt House.
   The lower half of the page is covered by advertisements. Report by Sultan
   Sikandar: Terrorism 'business' of terrorists, rulers: Pir Afzal Qadri;
   peaceful policy of Ahl-e Sunnat should not be deemed as weakness

   Speaking in Nawa-e Waqt house, Qadri said that strategy about long march
   would be drawn up on 26 August convention. (pp 8, 12; 300 words) Report by
   special correspondent: International donors do not trust government's
   system of spending: Marwi Memon; Pakistan League of America has announced
   to give PRe 30 million for flood-affected people (pp 8, 12; 400 words) APP
   report: Decision to take s trict action against those displaying weapons
   in Karachi (pp 12, 8; 300 words) NNI news report: Coalition rulers
   destroyed Pakistan's image in world; PML-Q leader Pervez Illahi (pp 8, 12;
   300 words) Report by special correspondent: The South Korean ambassador
   pays farewell call on Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff committee (pp 8, 12;
   200 words) Report by special correspondent: Journalists continue protest;
   APNS (All Pakistan Newspapers Society), CPNE (Council of Newspaper
   Editors) condemn closure of private television channels (pp 8, 12; 200
   words) NNI report: Rulers fight last battle against media: Former
   Information Minister Durrani (pp 8, 12; 200 words) Report by Ashraf Javed:
   Interior Ministry decides to hire services of suspicious firm for National
   Database Registration Authority's Europe operations (pp 8, 12; 200 words)
   Report by special correspondent: Special committee of public accounts
   committee expresses indignation over corruption in aid meant for the
   Afghan refugee s (pp 8, 12; 200 words) Report by special correspondent: We
   will bring medical certificates to light if 'psychological patients' fail
   to observe restraint: PML-N leader Siddiqul Farooq (pp 8, 12; 500 words)
   Report by special correspondent: Pakistan ideology i s our soul; will work
   for it till last: Nawa-e Waqt chief Majid Nizami (pp 8, 12; 600 words)
   Page 13: Special Edition on holy month of the Ramadan Page 14: Editorial,
   Lead Articles

   Page 14 has editorials and articles besides the regular gossip column "By
   the way" and regular series of Islamic teachings from the Koran. It also
   has couplets from Allama Iqbal and Muzaffar Warsi, and a saying of
   Qaid-e-Azam. Editorial: Flood devastations and importance of Kalabagh Dam;
   Mr. Prime Minister! Get Kalabagh Dam built if you have realized

   The editorial discusses statement of Yousuf Raza Gilani that the floods
   had not wreaked such havoc if Kalabagh Dam would have been built. It is a
   fact that intensity of fl oods can be reduced if more and more dams are
   built. We can avert such devastations as being witnessed in country by
   building water reserves. (1,400 words) Editorial: Who gave contract to
   Israeli company? Yet another demonstration of good governance

   The editorial discusses indignation expressed by Senate standing committee
   on interior over awarding of contract to an Israeli company by Pakistan
   State Oil. The standing committee should have raided the office, took
   record into custody, and got sedition case registered against those
   involved. (300 words) Editorial: German police close mosque, adjacent
   cultural center

   The editorial criticizes Germany for following the same (anti-Islam)
   course that the rest of the West is following. (300 words) Article by
   Sikandar Khan Baloch: Time has come that....

   The article maintains that defeat has become the writing on the wall for
   the US and its allies in Afghanistan. (1,200 words) Article by Professor
   Naeem Qasim: Bree ze

   The article discusses message of Sufism. (800 words) Article by Dr Ijaz
   Ahsan: Our rulers, respect for law (600 words) Article by Amirah Ahsan:
   Why master has tied? (last episode) (600 words) Page 15: Literature Page
   16: Reports, Articles Report by Gohar Ali Gohar: Displacement of 104
   million people; emergency appeal by the United Nations; floods write
   tragic tales of havoc in motherland; hundreds still missing (1,000 words)
   Article by Dr Muhammad Amjad: Red Mosque tragedy; General (retired) Pervez
   Musharraf's stance; the world media bent on proving Pakistan failed state
   (1,500 words)

   (Description of Source: Rawalpindi Nawa-e Waqt in Urdu -- Privately owned,
   widely read, conservative Islamic daily, with circulation around 125,000.
   Harshly critical of the US and India)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   48) Back to Top
   China Buys More Japanese Bonds for Diversification: CASS Scholar
   To request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735; or email: oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Wen
   Wei Po Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 06:27:29 GMT
   (Description of Source: Hong Kong Wen Wei Po Online in Chinese -- Website
   of PRC-owned daily newspaper with a very small circulation; ranked low in
   "credibility" in Hong Kong opinion surveys due to strong pro-Beijing bias;
   has good access to PRC sources; URL:
   http://www.wenweipo.com)Attachments:wwp0811b.pdf

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   49) Back to Top
   DPRK Party Organ on Japan's 'Arms Build-Up,' 'Nuclear Weaponization'
   The vernacular full text of the following Rodong Sinmun signed commentary
   has been obtained from the KPM website and is attached in PDF format; KCNA
   headline: "Japan's Arms Build-up And Nuclear Weaponization Blasted" - KCNA
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 06:22:53 GMT
   (Description of Source: Pyongyang KCNA in English -- Official DPRK news
   agency. URL: http://www.kcna.co.jp)Attachments:JapanRS11Aug10.pdf

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   50) Back to Top
   Mexico Southeastern Crime/Narcotics/Security Issues 11 Aug 10 - Mexico --
   OSC Summary
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 17:04:55 GMT
   Mexico City El Universal on 10 August reports that a man was found shot to
   death in the Sagitario neighborhood of Mexico State's Ecatepec
   municipality. There were no shells at the scene, so authorities believe he
   was thrown from a vehicle. Two other men were found shot to death in the
   Jardines de Morelos neighborhood of the same municipality. Authorities
   found 14 9-mm shells at the scene. (Mexico City El Universal (Internet
   Version-WWW) in Spanish -- Major centrist daily. Root URL as of filing
   date:

   http://www.el-universal.com.mx/ http://www.el-universal.com.mx/ ) Police,
   Military Operations Target La Barbie in Morelos, Guerrero, Mexico State ,
   Mexico City -

   Mexico City Reforma on 11 August reports that a series of police and
   military operations have been conducted simultaneously in Morelos,
   Guerrero, Mexico State, and Mexico City in search of Beltran Leyva boss
   Edgar Valdez, a.k.a. La Barbie. So far there have been no arrests or
   significant seizures. In Morelos, there have been operations in
   Cuernavaca, Jiutepec, Yautepec, Temixco, Jojutla, and Cuautla. In
   Guerrero, there have been operations in Acapulco, Chilpancingo, and
   Iguala. Sources say the operations also target Hector Beltran, a.k.a. El
   H., who rivals La Barbie for control in the aforementioned states. On 10
   August, federal police conducted an operation at the Antigua Residential
   Complex in Vasco de Quiroga and at Cumbres de Santa Fe, in western Mexico
   City. They searched homes and cars for an alleged group of drug
   traffickers. Although authorities did not specify for whom they were
   searching, investigations indicate that the Beltran Leyva Cartel has used
   that area for six years, as a residence and a place to launder money and
   conduct drug transactions. (Mexico City Reforma in Spanish -- major
   centrist daily newspaper, advocates journalism reform. URL:

   http://www.reforma.com/ http://www.reforma.com/ ) Mexico City Drug
   Shooting Leaves 2 Dead, 4 In Custody -

   Mexico City Reforma on 11 August reports that Gerardo Nurit Arevalo Montes
   de Oca and Armando Bedolla Monroy got into an argument outside a store on
   Degollado Street, in the Guerrero neighborhood of Mexico City's Cuauhtemoc
   delegation. They were allegedly arguing over a drug shipment that was
   lost. The argument ended, but Nurit followed Bedolla to his home at Apt.
   A2, No. 151 Degollado Street. Alejandra Bedolla Monroy, sister of Bedolla,
   opened the door and was shot in the head. Her family responded with
   gunfire from inside the apartment. Nurit was killed and his brother,
   Cristian, who was accompanying him, was injured. The following people were
   arres ted: Armando Bedolla, Joel Martinez Gonzalez, David Rodriguez
   Arellano, and Carlos Antonio Bedolla Hernandez. According to a neighbor,
   Nurit lived at No. 179 Degollado Street and was said to have sold drugs.
   Four Kidnappers Arrested in Mexico State -

   Mexico City Reforma on 10 August reports that an anonymous caller reported
   four armed men in two taxis at the corner of Rayon and Aldama Streets, in
   the Chapultepec municipality of Mexico State. Police arrested Alejandro
   Contreras Perez, Cesar Villanueva Garcia, Jose Juan Ruiz Sanchez, and
   Ricardo Manuel Beltran. "We have elements to prove that these four
   subjects were waiting on someone to kidnap them," said a police chief who
   preferred to remain anonymous. Authorities seized two Tsuru taxis; a 9-mm
   Prieto Veretta weapon with the initials of the National Defense
   Secretariat (Sedena); and a 9-mm Taurus PT AF firearm, automatic. Two
   Kidnappers Arrested, Victim Rescued in Mexico State -

   Mexico City Reforma on 10 August reports that two suspected kidnappers
   were arrested at a safe house on Lot 7, Block 10, Tepeyac Street, in the
   Sagitario II neighborhood of Mexico State's Ecatepec municipality. David
   Resendiz Trejo and Jose Antonio Perez Jimenez allegedly committed a
   kidnapping on 4 August, and police traced calls in which they demanded 10
   million Mexican pesos ($787,080) in ransom. Progreso Municipal Police
   Officer Caught Peddling Crack -

   Merida Diario de Yucatan on 11 August reports that Luis de Jesus Alvizar
   Canto, a 19-year-old municipal police officer in Progreso, Yucatan, was
   caught peddling crack with a woman who claimed to be his mother, Martha
   Elena Gonzalez Perez. They were in possession of 122 bindles of crack,
   which they were selling for 100 Mexican pesos each ($7.85) in the
   Flamboyanes housing development of Progreso. (Merida Diario de Yucatan in
   Spanish -- Yucatan State daily newspaper. URL:

   http://www.yucatan.com.mx/ http://www.yucatan.com.mx/ ) Blo g del Narco
   Profiles Zetas as Threat to Central American Stability -

   Mexico City Blog del Narco on 10 August, through a user named "navajas,"
   reports that the Zetas are now the most violent organization in Mexico and
   that their areas of operation are southern Mexico and Central America, but
   they also have representatives in Italy and Spain, according to reports
   from authorities. Several Central American countries have warned that the
   group is a danger to regional stability. Guatemala, for example,
   acknowledged that, in March, the Zetas threatened to kill President Alvaro
   Colom. (Mexico City Blog del Narco in Spanish -- Blog created on 2 March
   2010 by a "sole author" claiming to be "neither in favor of or against"
   any criminal groups; URL:

   http://www.blogdelnarco.info/ http://www.blogdelnarco.info ) SECURITY
   Consulting Firm: Mexico Still Far from Affecting Money-Laundering
   Structures -

   Mexico City El Economista on 4 August re ports that Eduardo Guerrero, an
   associate at Lantia Consultants, said that Mexico is still far from
   significantly affecting organized crime's money-laundering activities. He
   said that even countries with advanced technology have been unable to deal
   effective blows in that area. It is difficult to detect the amounts of
   money laundered from illegal activities because the money moves quickly
   through financial networks, is easy to hide, and can be broken up to avoid
   detection. In order to attack money laundering, Guerrero said, "We need
   international connections, qualified staff that is not easy to hire and a
   real political decision, because here we can begin to affect very
   high-level interests." (Description of Source: Mexico City El
   Economista.com.mx in Spanish -- Website of major national business and
   financial daily, founded in 1998 and published by Periodico El Economista,
   S. A.; URL

   http://eleconomista.com.mx/ http://eleconomista.com.mx ) Garcia Luna: 40%
   of Police Do Not Fight Crime -

   Mexico City Notimex on 6 August reports that Genaro Garcia Luna, secretary
   of public security, spoke at the international forum called "Towards a 21
   st Century Police Model for Mexico," put on by the National Governors
   Conference in Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco. He said 40% of the country's
   police do not fight crime. Education, he indicated, is another problem,
   given that 90% of police officers have only an elementary-school
   education. (Mexico City NOTIMEX in Spanish -- State-controlled Mexican
   press agency) MIGRATION Wife of "Greg" Linked to Cuban Trafficking -

   Mexico City El Universal on 11 August reports that the Office of the
   Deputy Attorney Specializing in Organized Crime (SIEDO) is investigating
   Niurka Saliva for alleged participation in trafficking undocumented Cuban
   migrants into Mexico. She is the wife of Gregorio Sanchez, former mayor of
   Cancun who was arrested on 26 May for suspected ties to organized cr ime.
   It was allegedly through the System for Comprehensive Family Development
   (DIF), over which she presided until her husband's arrest, that the
   migrants were trafficked. Months ago, it was revealed that 150 Cuban
   citizens were on the municipal payroll, 80 of them on the DIF payroll,
   specifically. In June, Saliva was questioned by the Office of the Attorney
   General of the Republic (PGR) and she was certified as a suspect, so she
   cannot leave the country.

   The following media were scanned and no file-worthy items were noted:
   Mexico City Office of the Attorney General of the Republic, Mexico
   Secretariat of Public Security, Mexican Naval Secretariat, Mexico City
   Secretariat of National Defense, Coatzacoalcos El Liberal del Sur, Mexico
   City Proceso, Oaxaca Noticias, Oaxaca El Imparcial, Poza Rica de Hidalgo
   La Opinion, Tuxtla Gutierrez Cuarto Poder, Villahermosa Tabasco Hoy,
   Mexico City La Jornada, Centro de Medios Independientes (Indymedia)
   Chiapas, Zapatista National Li beration Army

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   51) Back to Top
   UK-Pakistan Ties Cannot be Made Hostage To Camerons Indiscretion
   Article by Malik Muhammad Ashraf: The Regrettable Indiscretion - The
   Frontier Post Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 12:41:25 GMT
   The statement by the British Prime Minister David Cameron during his visit
   to India that Pakistan was exporting terror, has come as a rude shock to
   the people of Pakistan and to all those who believe in adherence to the
   internationally recognized diplomatic norms in the conduct of inter-state
   relations. It was irresponsible, naive and reflected extreme insensitivity
   to the role that Pakistan was playing in the war on terror as a frontline
   state. The government of Pakistan, its people, intellectuals and media
   rightly felt incensed by the unimaginative and regrettable indiscretion by
   the British Prime Minister. Pakistan has shown unswerving allegiance to
   the objectives of the global struggle against terrorism by taking a clear
   cut stance on the issue, irrespective of the sacrifices it had to render
   in terms of men and material, shriveling impact on its economy and
   agonizing trials and tribulations that its people are going through due to
   the retaliatory actions of the terrorists. It is an irrefutable fact that
   the Pakistan army has successfully assaulted the strongholds of the
   terrorists and extremists in Swat, Malakand and South Waziristan and also
   undertaken several operations along the Pak-Afghan border. In these
   engagements it has probably lost more men than the NATO forces in
   Afghanistan. Similarly the civilian casualties also run into thousands in
   addition to the destruction of property worth billions of rupees, in the
   suicide attacks. In the backdrop of the foregoing realities and the fact
   that the UK along with US is a major ally of Pakistan in the war against
   terrorism, the accusation sounds very painful, more so because it fits
   well into the Indian strategy of maligning Pakistan. It is amazing how
   conveniently he looked the other way to the Indian atrocities in Kashmir
   and its involvement in terrorist acts within Pakistan, especially in
   Balochistan. The reaction shown by the government of Pakistan on this
   episode, wide-spread condemnation of his convulsions by the media and the
   anguish exhibited by the politicians, therefore, is fully justified and is
   also indicative of the amount of hurt that it has caused. His actions have
   also invoked severe criticism even in Britain. The former British foreign
   secretary David Miliband in an article in The Independent last Sun day
   said that the words of the Prime Minister were " copious and created mess"
   In other words he committed a diplomatic faux pa. Britain's Stop the War
   Council asked Cameron to apologize to Pakistani people for deeply hurting
   them. A former Director General of MI-5 Baroness Buller told the Chilcot
   panel "I am surprised that Cameron had the nerve to say such a thing. By
   speaking in India against Pakistan David Cameron has renewed tensions
   between the two nations. He has become part of the proxy war between
   Pakistan and India and has clearly taken Indian side. This should not be
   the role of the British Prime Minister." Nick Clegg, Deputy Prime Minister
   has also distanced himself from what Cameron has said. Similarly a number
   of MPs and leaders of the Muslim community have rubbished his utterances.
   The British Prime Minister failed to appreciate the fact that in regard to
   political settlement and end of war in Afghanistan and regional peace--now
   a cherished goal of UK and US-- Pakistan was a key player in achieving
   these objectives and needed their continued economic and military support
   rather than being subjected to such ill-advised indictments. Whether he
   did it in playing-to-the-gallery mode; in one of his moments of levity or
   even as a deliberate expression, it has already generated a negative fall
   out fraught with the potential to affect diplomatic relations between the
   two countries. We are hearing loud voices of some politicians and a
   section of the media in Pakistan demanding the government not to take this
   insult meek ly. Some politicians, including Nawaz Sharif had also urged
   President Zardari to cancel his ensuing visit to UK as a mark of protest
   against Cameron's lose-cannon like behaviour. Undoubtedly, what Cameron
   has said is an unpalatable diplomatic provocation but what our politicians
   and some of the intellectuals are proposing, is also not desirable for the
   same reason. Two wrongs don't make a right. Relation s between states are
   very intricate and require an astute and visionary handling. They cannot
   be made hostage to such statements and consequent impulsive responses.
   Such an approach can further exacerbate the damage. In the conduct of
   international relations, engagement is the name of the game. Dialogue
   through continued engagement and keeping the channels of communication
   open is invariably a preferred option and arguably the most effective way
   of promoting understanding and resolving the conflicts. It is also our
   avowed policy and commitment to settle the disputes through diplomatic
   interaction and parleys. If we can do that in case of India then why can't
   we show similar attitude towards a long time friend?

   (Description of Source: Peshawar The Frontier Post Online in English --
   Website of a daily providing good coverage of the Northwest Frontier
   Province, Afghanistan, and narcotics issues; URL:
   http://www.thefrontierpost.com)

   Material in the World News Conne ction is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   52) Back to Top
   Colombia Political-Economic Issues 10-11 Aug 10
   Corrected version: Adding dropped word in headline of last blurb -
   Colombia -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 13:21:02 GMT
   POLITICAL ISSUES:

   Colombia, Venezuela Reestablish Diplomatic Relations (Reuters photo posted

   on Elespectador.com on 10 August)

   Santos, Chavez Agree to Reestablish Diplomatic Relations

   -- Bogota El Espectador reports on 10 August that President Juan Manuel
   Santos has announced the reestablishment of diplomatic relations between
   Colombia and Venezuela. "The outcome has been very positive; we have
   decided that our two countries will reestablish diplomatic relations and
   follow a roadmap allowing us to analyze all aspects of relations.
   President Chavez and I are in agreement about the importance of placing
   the needs of our people above any personal consideration." He also alluded
   to a commitment made by Chavez not to allow the presence of terrorist
   groups in his country's territory. "This is an important step in order to
   keep our relations on solid ground." (Bogota elespectador.com in Spanish
   -- Website of right-leaning daily owned by Bavaria Group and Santodomingo
   family; URL:

   http://www.elespectador.com)(osc/ http://www.elespectador.com)(OSC will
   translate a similar item) Santos Hails New Chapter in Relations With
   Venezuela

   -- El Tiempo reports on 10 August that President Juan Manuel Santos has
   expressed great satisfaction at having been able to reestablish relations
   with Venezuela. "We have held straightforward , direct, and sincere
   dialogue, which is how it must be in all good relations, and I think we
   have taken a big step toward reestablishing trust, which is another of the
   basic conditions of any relationship," said Santos. With a visibly calm
   Hugo Chavez looking on, the president of Colombia expressed satisfaction
   at the outcome of the meeting, insisting that 'two people deciding to turn
   the page and think about the future of their peoples is cause for
   celebration." The two leaders agreed to--among other things--create a
   series of bilateral commissions in order to address sensitive issues, such
   as the debt owed to Colombian exporters, social investment along the
   border, joint infrastructure projects, and security. (Bogota eltiempo.com
   in Spanish -- Website of pro-Liberal Party, most influential newspaper
   published by Casa Editorial El Tiempo with the largest circulation in
   Colombia; URL:

   http://www.eltiempo.com/ http://www.eltiempo.com ) (OSC will translate re
   lated items) Bautista Could Be Next Ambassador to Venezuela

   -- Bogota El Espectador reports on 11 August that former Communications
   minister Jose Fernando Bautista could become Colombia's next ambassador to
   Venezuela. During a joint press conference following the reestablishment
   of diplomatic relations with Venezuela, President Juan Manuel Santos said
   that he had thought of Bautista as a possible candidate because he was
   someone with a noteworthy background in public and diplomatic service and
   who was from the border department of Norte de Santander. Chavez Concedes
   Colombian Sovereignty Over DCA With US

   -- Bogota El Tiempo reports on 11 August that Venezuelan President Hugo
   Chavez has recognized Colombian sovereignty over the issue of a defense
   cooperation agreement (DCA) with the United States. Following a meeting
   with Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos in Santa Marta, Chavez
   reported that he and Santos had discussed the matter. He added, however,
   that th e important thing is "that none of those agreements compromise the
   sovereignty of a neighbor or become a threat." Brazil Applauds
   Reestablishment of Relations Between Colombia, Venezuela

   -- Bogota El Tiempo reports on 11 August that the Brazilian Government has
   expressed "great satisfaction" at the news of the reestablishment of
   diplomatic relations between Colombia and Venezuela. The Foreign Ministry
   issued a statement noting that this new development "creates a fresh
   opportunity to return to the dynamism and understanding that has
   historically characterized relations between the two countries." Ecuador
   Says Copies of R eyes Files Could Be Important for State Security

   -- Bogota El Tiempo reports on 11 August that the computer material given
   to Ecuadoran President Rafael Correa by Juan Manuel Santos was a copy of
   the original hard drives recovered at the bombed camp of the late Raul
   Reyes. In addition to clearing up that aspect, Ec uador's Security
   Minister, Miguel Carvajal, said that authorities expected that the
   computer files "could contain elements that are important for State
   security." Garzon Recovering From Surgery, Could Go Home in Coming Days

   -- Bogota El Espectador reports on 11 August that Vice President Angelina
   Garzon is recovering satisfactorily from heart surgery and is expected to
   be moved out of intensive care at any time. Hospital director Carlos
   Alberto Cardona said that Garzon's convalescence period would keep Garzon
   away from official duties for at least another month.

   ECONOMIC ISSUES: Resignation of Turbay Could Be Precursor to Reform of
   Comptroller's Office

   -- Bogota Portafolio reports on 10 August that Comptroller General Julio
   Cesar Turbay presented his resignation before the end of his
   constitutionally mandated term had concluded. He departs, however, having
   left behind a proposal for a revamping of the figure of Comptroller.
   Turbay proposed that the Comptroller General's Office, which has been
   criticized for being an after-the-fact oversight mechanism with no real
   bite, be given new attributes that would include the power to suspend
   contracts and other administrative proceedings. It would also be given
   authorization to order searches, collect evidence, and suspend public
   officials from duty during an investigation. The Uribe government had
   approved of some of the provisions of the proposal, but the Santos
   administration has yet to make its position known. (Bogota
   Portafolio.com.co in Spanish -- Website of economic and business
   newspaper; URL:

   http://www.portafolio.com.co/ http://www.portafolio.com.co )

   COMMENTARY: El Tiempo Editorial Says Santos, Chavez Achieved 'Triumph of
   Audacity'

   -- El Tiempo asserts on 11 August that the decision made by Juan Manuel
   Santos and Hugo Chavez to reestablish diplomatic relations was "without a
   doubt good news." It considers it "a triumph of the a udacity displayed by
   both leaders and the dedication of their foreign ministers who decided to
   take the bull by the horns...." In addition to giving cause for hope to
   Colombian exporters, the editorial feels that yesterday's encounter serves
   as "confirmation that Juan Manuel Santos has a style that is very
   different to that of his predecessor...." El Colombiano Editorial Says
   Achievement of Santos, Chavez Was 'Turning Page'

   -- El Colombiano asserts on 11 August: "Turning the page and looking to
   the future--starting out from scratch--was the big achievement made
   yesterday in the first face-to-face meeting between Santos and Chavez, who
   managed to place the wellbeing of their peoples before any personal
   differences." (Medellin El Colombiano.com in Spanish -- Website of
   pro-Conservative Party, leading Medellin daily; URL:

   http://www.elcolombiano.com/ http://www.elcolombiano.com ) La Republica
   Editorial Urges Guarded Optimism in Wake of Ree stablishment of Relations
   With Venezuela

   -- La Republica insists that the positive outcome of yesterday's meeting
   between Juan Manuel Santos and Hugo Chavez must be met "calmly" and with
   the understanding that the Venezuelan leader "knits together and unravels
   diplomatic protocols with equal ease." It applauds the implications for
   trade that the new situation could bring, but insists that "the issue of
   binational security must go hand-in-hand if further frustrations are to be
   avoided." (Bogota larepublica.com.co in Spanish -- Website of business and
   financial newspaper; URL:

   http://www.larepublica.com.co/ http://www.larepublica.com.co ) Tickner
   Says Path to Normalcy in Relations Wit h Venezuela 'Long'

   -- El Espectador commentator Arlene Tickner uses words like "surreal" and
   "tropical" to describe the unexpected turn of events in the "drama"
   between Colombia and Venezuela. She concedes that " ;this soap opera
   defies any attempt at 'rational' analysis," but still detects an internal
   logic that could suggest how this chapter came to pass. Tickner considers
   it to have been "risky" nonetheless for Santos and Chavez to agree to meet
   with one another so soon. She agrees that the importance of the formal
   reestablishment of relations "must not be underestimated," but insists
   that "the road that must be travelled in order to achieve minimal normalcy
   and trust is still long." Morales Says Santos 'Honeymoon' To End

   -- El Espectador commentator Mario Morales asserts on 8 August that the
   "honeymoon" is just about over for Juan Manuel Santos. He said that much
   of the enthusiasm and hopes surrounding the arrival of Santos to Casa de
   Narino can be attributable to what he calls "unprecedented media
   cleansing" over the last 48 days." According to Morales, Colombians have
   been led to confuse "optimism and hope ," unaware that the former relies
   on objective elements that are just not there. He predicts that the
   "favorable perception" for Santos will continue for awhile yet thanks to
   symbolic reconciliations with Venezuela and the Judiciary, but that things
   will become clearer once the real problems begin to set in.

   The following media were scanned and no file-worthy items were selected:

   (Cali El Pais in Spanish -- Website of Pro-Conservative Party daily; URL:

   http://www.elpais.com.co/ http://www.elpais.com.co )

   (Bogota Semana.com in Spanish -- Website of private, most influential
   weekly news magazine; URL:

   http://www.semana.com/ http://www.semana.com )

   (Bogota Office of the President in Spanish - Official website of the
   Colombian Presidency; URL:

   http://web.presidencia.gov.co/ http://web.presidencia.gov.co/ )

   (Bogota Ministry of National Defense of the Republic of Colombia in
   Spanish -- Official website of the C olombian Ministry of National
   Defense; URL:

   http://www.mindefensa.gov.co/ http://www.mindefensa.gov.co )

   (Bogota Ministry of Foreign Relations of the Republic of Colombia in
   Spanish -- Official website of the Colombian Ministry of Foreign
   Relations; URL:

   http://www.cancilleria.gov.co/ http://www.cancilleria.gov.co )

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   53) Back to Top
   Spanish troops launch new security, development projects in Afghanistan -
   EFE
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 14:20:58 GMT
   Afghanistan

   Text of report by Spanish news agency EfeMadrid, 11 August: The Spanish
   Prov incial Reconstruction Team (PRT) in the Afghan province of Badghis
   has launched several projects to bolster security measures and rural
   development in two new districts of the province where they are working,
   Qades and Bala Morghab.According to a Ministry of Defence statement, the
   head of the Spanish PRT, Col Martinez Trascasa, along with the governor
   and the deputy governor of the province, took part in a meeting yesterday
   of notables, a "shura" held in the town of Rabat, in the district of
   Qades.It was also attended by the provincial security and police chiefs,
   the head of prosecution services of the province and local notables, along
   with representatives of the American and Spanish international cooperation
   agencies.The main reason for the meeting was to learn about the main
   requirements of the people of the area in order to draw up the next
   projects and report on work in progress.The Ministry of Defence noted that
   a few days ago another "shura" took p lace to refocus investment in rural
   development in the districts of Moqor and Bala Morghab.It was attended by
   the head of RC (Regional Command)- West, Gen Berto, the head of the
   Spanish PRT, the provincial governor and representatives of the American
   and Spanish cooperation agencies.At the meeting, development projects were
   presented in the spheres of improvements to living conditions, methods of
   irrigation, solar energy, wells for drinking water, road building and
   stockbreeding.These meetings, in addition to giving an impetus to
   development projects in the three biggest districts of the province of
   Badghis, are also used for a security follow-up in view of the coming
   provincial elections of 18 September, according to the
   ministry.(Description of Source: Madrid EFE in Spanish -- Spanish
   semi-official independent news agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder . Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   54) Back to Top
   US Action Shows 'No Special Liking for Whistle-Blowers'
   Commentary by Chirosree Basu: A Good Man, but a Bad Soldier - The
   Telegraph Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 12:19:01 GMT
   Radically democratic or traitorously self-promoting -- how are the State
   and citizens to regard the makers of WikiLeaks and their many anonymous
   sources?

   WikiLeaks' publicizing of the Afghanistan warlogs is believed to be as
   significant as the release of the Pentagon Papers of the 1970s, and has
   called for a comparison between the whistle-blowers of the two different
   generations. A comparison of Daniel Ellsberg, the Seventies hero, with
   Bradley Manning, alleged to have leaked substantial parts of the warlogs
   from his post in Iraq, would have been natural. Instead, it is the
   WikiLeaks' founder, Julian Assange, who has been placed on the same
   pedestal as Ellsberg more often than Manning over the last few
   weeks.Surely, Manning has more things in common with Ellsberg than
   Assange? Both Ellsberg and Manning were in the service of the government
   when they decided to leak state secrets. Both exposed the bitter truths
   their governments were keeping from the public, and risked their careers,
   if not their lives, in doing so. Assange is a whistle-blower, but there is
   a difference between breaking the service code (like Ellsberg and Manning)
   and making a career out of whistle-blowing (like Assange). Of course,
   Manning's relegation to a relatively obscure position can be attributed to
   the media's realization that giving him attention may do more harm than
   good to his impending trial. But such consideration seems not to have
   stopped the mainstream media in Manning's own country from attempti ng the
   kind of character assassination that the Nixon administration had once
   tried with Ellsberg, though less successfully. Manning is seen as a
   weakling (possibly gay), who had taken a recent break-up rather badly.
   Having failed as a soldier, he was biding his time till being sent back
   home, when the 'public good' bug bit him.Ellsberg had also witnessed
   similar muckraking, but somehow Manning's status as a soldier seems to
   have made him more vulnerable than the Harvard-educated Ellsberg, who, as
   part of the American thinking classes, seemed to be more entitled to
   moralizing than Manning.Thinking soldiers are a problem worldwide, more so
   in the United States of America. No one had been willing to hear out Jimmy
   Massey, former Marine staff sergeant, when he came back from Iraq and
   alleged in 2005 that US soldiers were killing civilians. This was more
   than a year after the disclosures on Abu Ghraib, and what the US soldiers
   were up to in Iraq should not have been news. Yet, M assey was torn apart
   by the mainstream as well as the right-wing media in the US which called
   him a liar. To the man on the street, he was an outright traitor and an
   apology for a soldier. Soldiers are expected to go out there to kill, not
   to duck their heads between their knees.It is these time-honoured notions
   of what constitutes the duties of the soldier, the citizen and the patriot
   that the US now, and most other nations with skeletons in their cupboards,
   will depend on to secure themselves in this new world of global
   communication, where governments are losing control over the way
   information is disseminated. These notions turn morality into a project of
   self-aggrandizement, making people like Ellsberg and Manning look like
   creatures hell-bent on self-promotion.The strategy has already managed to
   harness the fickle ethics of hackers like Adrian Lamo to the service of
   the state. The increasing emphasis on the value of soldiers' lives,
   supposed to be in mortal peril from the leaks, may also finally turn the
   mainstream media in the US and elsewhere from being part of WikiLeaks'
   reckless adventure to the tame appendage of the state apparatus. America's
   old fears are right there under the surface. The opposition to the mosque
   near Ground Zero makes this obvious. The Obama administration has only to
   rekindle that war-time psychology to remind people that the nation is a
   little more important than individuals and their moralizing.The government
   has already started doing this. Its decision to prosecute state emp loyees
   who pointed out illegal actions of the Bush regime law was meant to show
   that it has no special liking for whistle-blowers. The justice department
   also recently decided to subpoena a New York Times journalist to force him
   to disclose his sources. So the heroism of the press may soon be stamped
   out. Of course, to make matters abundantly clear, the punishment for
   Manning will have to be made exemplary. The longest prison sentence in t
   he Abu Ghraib case was 10 years. Manning may get 52 years for being a good
   human being but a bad citizen-soldier.

   (Description of Source: Kolkata The Telegraph online in English -- Website
   of Kolkata's highest circulation English daily, owned by ABP Group, with a
   flagship publication Anandabazar Patrika in Bengali. Known for in-depth
   coverage of east and northeast India issues, and India-Bangladesh
   relations. Maintains an impartial editorial policy. Circulation 457,100;
   URL: www.telegraphindia.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   55) Back to Top
   Leaked Secrets May Entail 'Massive' Changes in US War Policy
   Commentray by Ipsita Chakravarty: Shadow Army - The Telegraph On line
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 12:02:54 GMT
   Secrecy has magical properties. When WikiLeaks released the Afghan War
   Logs into the public domain, it managed to dent a certain impenetrability
   that surrounds the US military and its operations. Although the reports
   largely substantiated what everyone was already aware of, there was
   renewed anger about a pointless war. There was also that slightly
   salacious thrill of reading something 'classified', something forbidden.
   All this had not been reported, it was 'leaked'.Thousands of classified
   military reports were now laid before the public gaze, each report
   identified with a code. In each, details of the operation are barked out
   in military-speak. The nature of the operation could be "enemy action",
   "friendly action" or "non-combat event". People are KIA (killed in action)
   or WIA (wounded in action). The casualties are "friendly", "host nation",
   "civilian" or "enemy". The words sting with authenticity. This is no
   well-crafted news report. This is unmediated raw material reaching
   thousands all over the world. Here, at last, was an organ of the State,
   shorn of all secrecy. And WikiLeaks had caught it in a compromising
   position.Like Bentham, those involved with WikiLeaks seem to believe that
   the State keeps secrets for its own "sinister purposes". There is, of
   course, a strong argument for greater transparency, for information to be
   circulated and discussed. The freedom of information is a right recognized
   by international law. But the law also recognizes the right to privacy and
   the need to classify information in the interests of national security.
   The US government has blustered about the threat to security and the fate
   of Afghan informers named in the leaked files was cited in the argument
   against WikiLeaks. But no condition of accoun tability applies to those
   who work for WikiLeaks. Unlike journalists in mainstream media houses,
   most contributors work anonymously. Apparently, even WikiLeaks is not
   aware of their identities.One is faced with a shadow army of vigilantes
   who gather material, often through questionable means, and make them
   public, no matter what the consequences. In many ways, WikiLeaks lacks
   transparency as much as the governments it exposes. It deals not so much
   in information as in secrets. The leaks are not only about what one does
   not know but also what, governments and authorities have decided, one is
   not supposed to know. Operating on the razor-edge of legality, WikiLeaks
   has continually questioned these boundaries. Yet this subversive source of
   information has been increasingly 'legitimized'. The warlogs were given to
   mainstream newspapers, which verified the data before publishing it. The
   leaks have also acquired a legitimizing power. They give us names, dates
   and numbers, establish ing rumours as facts. The US government has been
   forced to acknowledge that it is aware of these facts; this acknowledgment
   will entail massive changes in war policy.Secrets, if used well, can
   become powerful weapons.

   (Description of Source: Kolkata The Telegraph online in English -- Website
   of Kolkata's highest circulation English daily, owned by ABP Group, with a
   flagship publication Anandabazar Patrika in Bengali. Known for in-depth
   coverage of east and northeast India issues, and India-Bangladesh
   relations. Maintains an impartial editorial policy. Circulation 457,100;
   URL: www.telegraphindia.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   56) Back to Top
   Editorial Urges US To Take Notice of Situation in Indian-Held Kashmir
   Editorial: World starts raising voice for Kashmiris - Pakistan Observer
   Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 11:47:32 GMT
   THE situation in Occupied Kashmir is assuming new dimensions with the
   passage of every day because of atrocities by the occupation forces, who
   are using all sorts of brute power at their disposal to crush the
   legitimate demands of the Kashmiri people for right of self-determination.
   Massive human rights abuses including shooting of peaceful demonstrators,
   custodial killings, gang rapes and systematic destruction of homes and
   businesses of Kashmiris have once again forced the local population to
   stand up against the tyrannical rule.

   India has imposed curfew in a bid to silence Kashmiris but a peep into the
   eyes of the protesting men, women and children conveys their unparalleled
   determination not to compromise on the ir birthright. New Delhi has sent
   thousands of additional troops to suppress the voice of Kashmiris. In this
   perspective, it is somewhat encouraging that at long last some members of
   the international community have started taking note of the state
   terrorism in Occupied Kashmir. Apart from the UN Chief Ban Ki Moon, some
   other countries have also issued statements expressing concern over
   deteriorating situation there. But it is all the more significant to note
   that voices of solidarity are now also being raised within India, which
   shows growing realization that Kashmir belongs to Kashmiris and they must
   get their legitimate rights. The Central Committee of the Communist Party
   of India (Maoist) has saluted the Kashmiri protestors for their resolve in
   securing their rights while Naxals have equated the stone throwing youth
   of Kashmir to the bow and arrow equipped tribals of dandakaranya. This is
   of far more importance as these are sentiments of people within India and
   hopefully these would prick the conscience of champions of human rights
   like the United States and the United Kingdom to shun the tendency of
   closing their eyes to state terrorism in Occupied Kashmir just because of
   their commercial interests.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad Pakistan Observer Online in English --
   Website of the pro-military daily with readership of 5,000. Anti-India,
   supportive of Saudi policies, strong supporter of Pakistan's nuclear and
   missile program. Chief Editor Zahid Malik is the author of books on
   nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan; URL: http://www.pakobserver.net)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   57) Back to Top
   More Than $2 Bn Foreign Aid Expected for Mindanao P eace
   Report by Edith Regalado: "More than $2-billion foreign aid seen for
   Mindanao peace" - Philstar
   Monday July 12, 2010 07:12:12 GMT
   DAVAO CITY, Philippines - At least more than $2 billion in foreign aid is
   expected to be poured into Mindanao in the next few months to reduce
   poverty and attain peace in the strife-torn south, Social Welfare
   Secretary Corazon "Dinky" Soliman said.

   Soliman announced the foreign funding assistance would come in the form of
   grants and soft loans with the US and Japan as the biggest donors.

   "The international community has signified intention in helping bring
   about peace in Mindanao," Soliman said.

   She added the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank have both also
   pledged to come up with $400 million each for Mindanao in the next few
   years.

   The country is also reportedly set to avail of the $1 20-million soft loan
   from US government's Millennium Challenge program.

   Other international donors such as Spain and the European Community also
   pledged certain amounts for the development of Mindanao.

   The government is reportedly eyeing another $1 billion in foreign funding
   for a five-year period program.

   Soliman said the chances for peace in Mindanao are higher if government is
   able to effectively address the poverty plaguing most parts of the
   strife-torn region.

   Soliman said the Department of Social Welfare and Development is working
   in close coordination with the Office of the Presidential Assistant on the
   Peace Process (OPAPP) in implementing the proposed programs and projects
   aimed at reducing poverty in the south.

   "We will see what arrangements can be done to begin the peace process
   especially since we also have the case of the internally displaced persons
   (refugees)," Soliman said.

   Soliman stressed the government is bent on implementing the three phases
   of poverty reduction that would include the conditional-cash-transfer
   program for families with three children in school who shall avail of a
   P300 monthly allowance each and another P500 for the mother.

   Soliman said government would also spend the foreign funding assistance on
   community-driven projects that would be identified by local government
   units.

   The third phase involves sustainable livelihood programs for the affected
   communities, she said.

   Soliman added the government would focus on the Autonomous Region in
   Muslim Mindanao (ARMM), the region that fared very low in the Millennium
   Development Goal (MDG) standards.

   (Description of Source: Manila Philstar in English -- News and
   entertainment portal of the STAR Group of Publications, a leading
   publisher of newspapers and magazines in the Philippines. Publications
   include The Philippine STAR, a leading English broadsheet in the country;
   Pilipino STAR Ngayo n, a tabloid published in the national language;
   Freeman, Cebu's oldest English language newspaper; Banat, a tabloid
   published in Cebuano; and People Asia Magazine, which profiles
   personalities in the Philippines and the region; URL:
   http://www.philstar.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   58) Back to Top
   Pakistan Must Strengthen Ties With China Instead of Associating Hopes With
   West
   Article by Izhar-ul-Haq: Sino-Pak Nuclear Cooperation - Pakistan
   Observer Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 11:41:23 GMT
   Declaring the reservations of USA and India as baseless regarding Sino-Pak
   civil nuclea r agreement, Pakistan rejected the Indian demand to explain
   its position. Islamabad has clarified that the nuclear cooperation between
   Pakistan and China is in accordance with the international laws on which
   no one should feel insecurity. On the other hand Beijing has also
   categorically rejected the objections raised by the US and India and has
   explained that no country can justify itself in terms of having
   reservations on civil nuclear agreement between Pak and China as it is, by
   all means, is in keeping with the International Atomic Energy Agency
   (IAEA) rules.

   In Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) meeting in New Zealand, China announced to
   build a 650 mw nuclear power plant in Punjab, Pakistan and adopted the
   stance that the US had also signed an agreement of the same nature with
   India, so it was irrational to lay down pressure upon China in this
   regard. According to Indian news Daily Mr. Zhai Dequan the Deputy
   Secretary General of China Arms Control and Disarmament Assoc iation
   explicitly proclaimed that China would extend cooperation to Pakistan in
   connection with civil nuclear power plant and it would provide financial
   assistance in building two atomic reactors here.

   It is a proven fact that the Democratic Republic of China is not only
   Pakistan's best neighbor but also a time-tested and reliable friend who
   always live up with all the standards of friendship in every ordeal to
   Pakistan that is why the Sino-Pak friendship is considered to be sweeter
   than honey and higher than Himalaya .China extends its cooperation to
   Pakistan in all spheres of life but unfortunately our rulers have been
   eyeing at America despite knowing that the US have always been preferring
   India to Pakistan in major issues like cooperation in defence, joint
   military exercises, transfer of atomic technology and trade. India who is
   crazy for achieving hegemony in the region and who has been exposed to
   have expansionist designs wants to tarnish Pakistan's security, f reedom
   and sovereignty. In this scenario how Pakistan can stop taking drastic
   measures for its defence. The Pak China civil nuclear agreement is
   indigestible for India, despite that it has had 130 agreements for
   cooperation in defence and atomic spheres with various countries including
   US,UK,Russia,France and Israel which has increased its defence capability
   up to four-fold as compare to Pakistan.

   India's nuclear deal with world powers has rendered it so arrogant that it
   not only threatens Pakistan but also it is engaged in hatching
   conspiracies against Pakistan's security. Similarly India has expressed
   intentions of conducting a takes in Pakistani soil in the name of
   eliminating terrorism, but the US neither took the notice of India's
   war-craze, nor it our expressed apprehensions in this connection.

   But on the other hand the cooperation between Pakistan and China is
   stinging Washington and New Delhi and the former is holding out assurance
   to the latter that it would be seriously examine the Sino-Pak strategic
   cooperation deal. It indicates the West dual standard for Pakistan that
   the atomic non proliferation treaty which the US did not considered to
   comply with, was brought as a hurdle for Pakistan, and America,UK,India
   and European Union were vehemently realizing that the Pak China nuclear
   cooperation must be in accordance with the IAEA rules.

   After witnessing such a situation question arises that as to where these
   countries were, when the civil nuclear deal was taking place between the
   US and India and as to why they did not think whether or not the deal was
   in accordance with the international laws regarding atomic non
   proliferation. No one pressurized India or stressed the US to avoid the
   agreement that time realizing the fact that if could create disequilibrium
   of power in South Asia resulting in a hazard toward peace.

   The fact is that the US wants to establish India's hegemony in this region
   by furnishing it w ith latest nuclear technology and defence arsenal. On
   the basis of a number of India's nuclear cooperation deal with world
   powers it also exerts efforts to suppress China who badly defeated it in
   1962 war. If the ground reality is this then what is the purpose of IAEA
   rules, NPT and CTBT? Are these international treaties for nuclear non
   proliferation aimed at entangling countries like Pakistan?

   Beijing undoubtedly announced in the meeting of nuclear supplier group to
   built nuclear power plants in Pakistan. In the wake of Beijing's gallant
   announcement Pakistan must also get rid of the war of American interest
   which in merely shaking the basis of national honor and devastating its
   sovereignty. Islamabad, instead of associating hopes with the West, should
   take further steps to strengthen relations with China which would
   obviously be in the best national interest.

   New Delhi and Washington objects that this deal will breach the
   international protocol, regarding the trade of nuclear equipment and
   material. U.S also object that this deal will overstep "the guidelines of
   the 46-country Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), which bars nuclear commerce
   between Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) members like China and
   non-member states like Pakistan". The states objecting the deal perhaps
   overlook the fact that, Pak-China Nuclear Deal was concluded in 1986, once
   China was neither the member of NSG nor it had signed the NPT. China
   signed the NPT in 1992 and became the member of NSG in 2004. By 2004,
   almost 3/4th progresses had already been made on the deal between Pakistan
   and China.

   Pakistani Foreign Office has rejected the Indo-US concerns over the
   Pak-China civil nuclear deal.Regarding the mandate and origin of NSG; it
   is worth mentioning that, it was created after the nuclear test of India
   in 1974, once India diverted the fuel meant for the atom for peace to its
   weapon programme. NSG was created in 1975, to regulate and sta ndardize
   the nuclear trade, in reaction to Indian misuse of nuclear material.
   Legally, the creation of NSG is not governed through an international
   treaty, but is an international cartel of nuclear technology suppliers. On
   September 6, 2008, the NSG granted a waiver to India, allowing it to have
   civil nuclear technology and nuclear fuel from other countries. With these
   concessions, India became the only country having the nuclear weapons,
   which was non-signatory to NPT, but allowed to undertake the nuclear trade
   with rest of the world. The waiver allowed India, "both trigger list and
   dual-use items (including technology), waiving the full-scope safeguards
   requirements of the NSG guidelines." It also allowed India for bi-lateral
   agreements and regular consultations. Now the question arise, if India,
   the primary nuclear proliferators, could be given such a concession by the
   NSG, why Pakistan be deprived from it?

   The US has said it would vote against an exempti on for China to sell two
   civil nuclear reactors to Pakistan at the Nuclear Suppliers Group meeting.
   Making it clear that the US would oppose the recent decision of China to
   sell two nuclear reactors to Pakistan, a top Obama administration official
   told lawmakers that Washington would vote against the Sino-Pak deal when
   it comes before the Nuclear Suppliers Group. This is for the first time
   that such a clear statement has emerged from the Obama Administration;
   days after Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told Pakistan that US would
   work with it on civil nuclear energy, during her just concluded Islamabad
   visit..

   The expansionist intents of triangular devilish powers i.e. America, India
   and Israel are not hidden obscure now so Pakistan needs to shun playing
   the role of American front line ally and realize that its future is
   concerned with China. It is laudable that once again China inscribed a new
   history of Sino-Pak friendshi p by rejecting US pressure and announcing to
   offer a priceless gift of nuclear cooperation deal. Pakistan as a
   sovereign state has its own national interest without succumbing to any
   unjustifiable foreign pressure. It would not only ensure regional peace
   but also it would shatter the Indian dreams of being hegemonic giant in
   South Asia.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad Pakistan Observer Online in English --
   Website of the pro-military daily with readership of 5,000. Anti-India,
   supportive of Saudi policies, strong supporter of Pakistan's nuclear and
   missile program. Chief Editor Zahid Malik is the author of books on
   nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan; URL: http://www.pakobserver.net)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   59) Back to Top
   NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 119 -- FOREIGN TIPS (5 of 6)
   Yonhap headline: "NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 119 (August 12, 2010)" -
   Yonhap
   Thursday August 12, 2010 02:30:48 GMT
   WASHINGTON (Yonhap) -- The United States on Aug. 5 announced a new list of
   state sponsors of terrorism that does not include North Korea despite
   concerns over Pyongyang's suspected delivery of weapons to militant groups
   in the Middle East.Iran, Syria, Sudan and Cuba are still listed under the
   annual congressionally mandated Country Reports on Terrorism 2009."The
   Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK/ North Korea) was not known to
   have sponsored any terrorist acts since the bombing of a Korean Airlines
   flight in 1987," the report said. "On October 11, 2008, the United States
   removed the designation of the DPRK as a state sponsor of terrorism in
   accordance with criteria set fo rth in U.S. law, including a certification
   that the government of the DPRK had not provided any support for
   international terrorism during the preceding six-month period and the
   provision by the DPRK of assurances that it will not support acts of
   international terrorism in the future."North Korea was first put on the
   list after the downing of the Korean Air flight over Myanmar in 1987,
   which killed all 115 people aboard. Its delisting came in October 2008
   under the Bush administration, which saw progress in the six-party talks
   on ending the North's nuclear weapons programs.The report comes amid
   allegations of North Korea's involvement in the provision of weapons to
   some Asian and Middle Eastern countries.U.S. officials have raised
   concerns over North Korea's alleged nuclear and missile technology
   transfer to Myanmar, formerly Burma.Israel said in May that the 35 tons of
   North Korean arms seized at the Bangkok airport in December were destined
   for the Hamas and Hizbullah militant groups via Syria.Dennis Blair, then
   U.S. director of national intelligence, said only that the cargo was bound
   for the Middle East.Daniel Benjamin, coordinator of the State Department's
   Office for Counterterrorism, told reporters that the department has been
   "looking into" those allegations."The secretary and others in the
   administration have been clear that if we find that Korea is, indeed,
   sponsoring terrorism, obviously we will revisit the issue of the listing
   as a state sponsor," he said. "But North Korea was de-listed in accordance
   with U.S. law in 2008 and it was at that time certified that North Korea
   had not supported any terrorism in the previous six months."Arms sales are
   believed to be one of the major sources of revenue for North Korea,
   suspected of being behind nuclear and missile proliferation in Syria,
   Iran, Pakistan and several other countries. For its nuclear and missile
   tests, Pyongyang has been under strict U.N. reso lutions banning the trade
   of conventional arms as well as weapons of mass destruction.The State
   Department, meanwhile, noted that the U.S. in May last year re-certified
   North Korea as "not cooperating fully" with U.S. counterterrorism efforts
   under the Arms Export and Control Act."Pursuant to this certification,
   defense articles and services may not be sold or licensed for export to
   North Korea from October 1, 2009 to September 30, 2010," the report said.
   "This certification will lapse unless it is renewed by the Secretary of
   State by May 15, 2010."------------------------N.K. Bank Loses Lawsuit for
   Defaulting on Loan in U.S. CourtNEW YORK (Yonhap) -- A state-run North
   Korean bank has lost a lawsuit for not paying back a loan it borrowed from
   a Taiwanese bank nine years ago, the New York district court said on Aug.
   6.The District Court of New York confirmed it ordered the Foreign Trade
   Bank of Korea to pay compensations of just under US$6.77 mil lion to the
   Mega International Commercial Bank (MICB) in a ruling made earlier in the
   week.The North Korean bank is widely viewed as Pyongyang's main foreign
   exchange earner with branch offices in Europe, the Middle East and Hong
   Kong.The ruling follows formal lega l action taken by MICB on Jan. 14
   after the North Korean financial institution did not pay the $5 million it
   borrowed in 2001 and missed its interest payments.Under the loan agreement
   the North Korean bank should have returned the principle and interest by
   Sept. 15 2004, but only paid a total of $462,000 in backlogged interests
   from late 2008 through May 2009.A source at the South Korean consulate in
   New York said it is very rare for a North Korea-related commercial dispute
   to be settled in a U.S. court.He added that the latest ruling will
   probably have negative consequences on the communist country's effort to
   borrow money from abroad and will further hurt its credibility in the
   international business community.O ther legal sources said that while
   there is no way to tell if the trade bank will pay the compensation, MICB
   may try to freeze any assets held by the North Korean financial
   institution in the United States in an effort to recoup its
   loans.------------------------North Korea Could Face Inflation from Fiscal
   Expansion: ReportSEOUL (Yonhap) -- North Korea could face inflation as its
   regime may seek to expand fiscal spending to assuage complaints of
   salaried workers and to stabilize markets amid a protracted slump of its
   economy, a report said on Aug. 6."If prices of products continue to
   fluctuate and transactions freeze in the market amid instability after the
   North's recent currency reform, the possibility is high that even salaried
   workers at state-run companies will be much affected," the Korea
   Development Institute in Seoul said in the report.To assuage the
   complaints of those people, a key supporting group for the regime,
   Pyongyang might seek to print and supply more money to the workers, which
   the report said could result in inflation, prompted by budgetary
   deficit."If this turns out to be the case, deficit-sparked inflation will
   take place, worsening price fluctuations that the North has already been
   undergoing," the report said.Caused by a protracted economic slump, the
   shortage of dollars in the North will make it tougher to cope with its
   currency market instability, another factor that could push the regime to
   print out money to shore up its economic system.Last year, the North
   conducted a reform of its currency by knocking two zeros off its currency
   in a way to curb soaring inflation. The reform, however, is regarded as a
   failure by experts as it rather pushed up prices and increased confusion
   in the market.A recent report from the Unification Ministry here showed
   that North Korea's consumer prices have surged in the past five months,
   attributing the hike to the failed currency reform and the appreciation of
   China's yuan.------------------------North Korea Goes YouTube-savvy in Its
   Propaganda OffensiveSEOUL (Yonhap) -- North Korea has apparently
   registered an account with the iconic U.S. video-sharing site YouTube,
   uploading clips that praise the isolated regime and defend itself against
   accusations that it attacked a South Korean warship.At least 10 clips were
   found on Aug. 10 under the name of uriminzokkiri, which represents the
   North's Web site. The name in Korean means "on our own as a nation" and
   was registered July 14.The uploaded footage contain regurgitations of
   official cant that honor the North's leader, Kim Jong Il (Kim Cho'ng-il),
   and the usual South Korea bashing. The Aug. 2 upload contained an
   elaborately produced three-minute clip lashing out at South Korea's
   foreign minister.Another clip, uploaded the same day and also produced in
   Korean, ridicules Seoul for its failure to stop the U.N. Security Council
   from placing Pyongyang's denial in its statement deploring the deadly
   March sinking of the Ch'o'nan (Cheonan) warship.Forty-six South Korean
   sailors died in the sinking that a multinational investigation found the
   North responsible for in May. Military tensions have since soared between
   the two countries, which remain t echnically at war after the 1950-53
   Korean War ended in a truce rather than a peace treaty.North Korea has
   been expanding the use of the Internet in its propaganda offensive,
   observers say. In June, a North Korean woman believed to be an agent
   uploaded a clip praising her communist country on YouTube, drawing media
   attention here and abroad.North Korea is also believed to be operating a
   unit dedicated to hacking foreign Web sites, including those of the United
   States and South Korea. Early this year, South Korea set up a cyber
   defense command to deal with such threats from the
   North.------------------------Teenage U.S. Environmentalist to Visit N.K.
   on Bold Peace MissionSEOUL (Yonhap) -- A teenage American boy is tr
   aveling to North Korea with his parents this week with a letter urging the
   socialist country's leader Kim Jong-il to allow the creation of a "peace"
   forest that would grow over the heavily armed inter-Korean border, the
   world's last cold-war frontier, his father said on Aug. 10.Jonathan Lee's
   eight-day trip to North Korea by way of China is scheduled to start Aug.
   12 and will include a meeting with a North Korean government official, his
   father, Kyoung Lee, told Yonhap News Agency before leaving Seoul with his
   son.Jonathan's father said the trip, which is highly unusual, has been
   sanctioned by North Korea, despite there being diplomatic relations with
   Pyongyang and Washington. Since January, a U.S. citizen named Aijalon
   Gomes has been held in North Korea for illegal entry."You may be wondering
   why a 13-year-old boy wants to go into North Korea, especially right now
   when there are a lot of problems," Jonathan Lee, a Korean-American from
   Mississippi, wrote in his letter addressed to the North Korean
   leader."Well, I've been talking about planting chestnut trees in North
   Korea for the past three years. The reason I have is because I want to
   help the environment and help the people at the same time. Now is the
   right time because many wish for peace right now on the Korean
   peninsula."Jonathan's father said he believe that the safety of his family
   in North Korea won't be a problem, because the visit was made possible
   through the socialist regime's U.N. representative office in New
   York.Jonathan's family was scheduled to leave Seoul for China on Aug. 10,
   where Jonathan will deliver the same letter to Chinese President Hu
   Jintao, the father said. The boy also wrote to South Korean President Lee
   Myung-bak (Yi Myo'ng-pak) and U.S. President Barack Obama in which he
   discussed his trip and proposal, said his father.The family says that they
   also requested a meeting between Jonathan and the 68-year-old North Korean
   leader, Kim J ong Il (Kim Cho'ng-il). But the North has only mentioned the
   possibility of a meeting with a "senior" official.If Jonathan's wish to
   plant a forest of chestnut trees in Panmunjom (P'anmunjo'm), along the
   border between the two Koreas, did come true, it would be a stark contrast
   to the surrounding area heavily fortified with barbed wire and military
   personnel, he believes.Panmunjom (P'anmunjo'm), the village where the
   truce that ended the 1950-53 Korean War was signed, lies within the
   Demilitarized Zone, a four-kilometer-wide swath of land bisecting the
   peninsula.(Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial
   news agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   60) B ack to Top
   Delhi Editorial Criticizes US Senator for Remarks Against Indian IT Firms
   Editorial: "Cloud on American Dream" - The Pioneer Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 11:12:48 GMT
   Take it as rancour or a wake-up call. Within the space of a few days two
   separate indictments have come from US quarters against a resurgent Indian
   industry. First, there were reports that Indian factories producing goods
   for global labels -- Marks and Spencers, Gap and Next -- were in fact
   operating like 'sweat shops', using methods that flouted regulations on
   child labour and forced labour, the practice of which involves routinely
   pressuring workers to do overtime at slashed rates or else face being laid
   off. More recently, the country's famed information technology sector
   comprising global giants like Infosys, Wipro and TCS got a rude shock when
   it was branded a 'chop shop', a highly derogatory description by the US of
   'foreign companies' that outsourced high-paying American technology jobs
   to temporary immigrant workers from other countries at lower salaries.
   Given that the charges are coming from responsible people there, India
   cannot gloss over them. Not too long ago, the US President, Mr Barack
   Obama, had made the infamous declaration, "Say no to Bangalore", referring
   to the increased outsourcing of US business to the IT firms located in
   Karnataka's capital. The latest 'chop shop' shocker came from a Senator
   and Democrat leader, Mr Charles E Schumer. He quoted the highly respected
   Infosys Technologies as an example, in the process indirectly pointing to
   the $60-billion Indian software services sector, which is seen by many US
   politicians as a major cause for huge job losses in the US. Detractors
   like Mr Schumer must understand that the Indian IT sector has become a
   force to reckon with across the globe not by engaging in dubious practices
   but by providing quality service at competitive rates. Perhaps, the US,
   still reeling from the impact of the global meltdown, is desperately
   looking to blame someone, and the flourishing Indian software industry is
   a good enough target. It believes, wrongly, that overseas Indian IT firms
   have an unfair advantage because they engage cheap immigrant labour or do
   not follow ethical manufacturing, trading and service practices.In any
   case, the US is hardly a role model to lecture others in this matter.
   After all, despite all its so-called stringent business laws, clean
   accounting methods and ethical standards, Washington was hit by a series
   of misdemeanors by its financial giants that led to the meltdown. It would
   be nice if senators like Mr Schumer cleaned up the rot from within their
   establishment rather than waste energy on hectoring emerging economies.
   While declarations like those by Mr Schumer may be driven by domestic
   political compulsions, one cannot deny outright the absence of Indian
   firms where cheap labour is exploited, short-cuts resorted to and
   transparent accounting methods discarded. They must be dealt with
   severely, with the application of laws of the land and by further
   legislation if needed, because they are the ones who tarnish the image of
   an entire country.

   (Description of Source: New Delhi The Pioneer Online in English -- Website
   of the pro-Bharatiya Janata Party daily, favors nationalistic foreign and
   economic policies. Circulation for its five editions is approximately
   160,000, with its core audience in Lucknow and Delhi; URL:
   http://www.dailypioneer.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   61) Back to Top
   Article Says Govt in no Mood To Counter US Agenda Against Pakistan
   Article by Shireen M Mazari: Trying to reduce us to nothingness - The
   Nation Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 11:41:22 GMT
   The present rulers have certainly tried to reduce Pakistan to a joke in
   the eyes of the world. Here we are confronting one of the largest natural
   disasters of the world, as even the UN has conceded, and our President has
   been busy frolicking in Europe with his team of loyalists who are giving
   out lies, half-truths and propaganda - in fact anything to conceal the
   truth. Take for instance, the claim that the President's trip to the UK
   was an official trip. After being asked through an email from a Pakistani
   journalist, whether this was the case, the British Foreign Office
   spokesperson, Natasha Khan, responded (August 6th) with this one-liner:
   "President Zardari is not on an official state visit." President Zardari
   himself claimed that he was in the UK to develop trade links with the
   international community but ended up having only one official meeting -
   and that to with PM Cameron, not any trade delegation. As for the Marshall
   Plan he claims he got the UK to agree to, only he seems to be aware of it
   as there has been nothing coming out from the British government and
   apparently all that has happened is that we once again pleaded with the
   Brits to take up the case of access for Pakistani exports to the EU
   markets with Brussels.

   Meanwhile, costs aside - and those too are substantial given the nightly
   rate at the London five star hotel the President and his entourage stayed
   at, plus the costs of the chartered flight to Birmingham, plus the costs
   of the dozen or so luxury limos that were hired and thousands of pounds
   paid for the hiring of the International Convention Centre in Birmingham
   and so on - it is what was said and left unsaid that was truly damaging
   for Pakistan. The first issue is of course the most critical - the
   unsubstantiated accusations uttered by UK Prime Minister Cameron in India
   against Pakistan, and his refusal to retract or even modify them. One had
   expected that at the very least President Zardari would take this issue up
   since he not only refused to cancel his trip, but also refused to cancel
   his meeting with Cameron. Unfortunately, in his meeting with Cameron, no
   protest was registered. To make matters worse, President Zardari actually
   seemed to be in agreement with Cameron's remarks because in an interview
   given later to The Telegraph (August 7th), he made a reference to rogue
   spies when talking of the ISI whom he said were a thing of the past. So
   effectively he was echoing what Cameron had said, but to show how he was
   making the difference he added that he had full control over the
   intelligence agencies and only now "everybody is completely accountable!"
   So if the Pakistan nation or any state institution was expecting a strong
   defence against the Cameron remarks they were not going to get it from the
   Presidency! In fact, President Zardari did not even take up the issue of
   the Pakistani students who were arrested on alleged terrorist charges and
   then found not to be guilty but were still deported - thereby having their
   future all but destroyed. Yet, we heard nothing on this count either from
   President Zardari. If he saw the ISI guilty as charged by Cameron, surely
   he could have pleaded the cause of these innocent Pakistani youth at
   least?

   It is no wonder, then, that the British political elite can ride roughshod
   over Pakistan and the British media can go to town ridiculing and
   lampooning the Pakistani head of state. Even someone who is considered a
   friend of Pakistan like Baroness Wasti made a strange defence of Prime
   Minister Cameron's remarks in an article by declaring that friendship "is
   meaningless unless you can be ho nest with each other!" That is true but
   does honesty demand that you publicly level unsubstantiated allegations
   against your friend in the territory of the foe of that friend? Where was
   the mutual respect Wasti talked about in Cameron's remarks and subsequent
   reiteration of that position? However, given President Zardari's absurd
   remarks about the UK-Pakistan historical relationship - and one only has
   to go throw the history of Partition to realise this - obviously even
   Baroness Wasti feels she can pull a fast one on Pakistan while defending
   her Party leader and Prime Minister!

   President Zardari's tragedy is that no one is Pakistan, save his own loyal
   band, was in a mood to take the cudgels up in his defence or at least
   against the manner in which he was treated in the UK. After all, he defied
   his suffering nation to go on this jaunt at a time when he should have
   been offering succour and support to his flood-ravaged people. It is our
   tragedy that our leaders are in no mood to defend Pakistan, its people or
   its institutions against the negative agendas of external foes posing as
   friends. In fact, since successive governments have allowed the US to kill
   our people while violating our sovereignty at will, one can conclude that
   neither the previous uniformed dispensation nor the present civilian
   democratic dispensation is prepared to take up the cudgels for the
   Pakistani nation against the US and the agenda of the Indo-US nexus. As
   for the UK, it never befriended Pakistan, especially on the issue of
   Kashmir and if our leaders are not well-versed in our history, they need
   to get rid of this critical deficit. That is the only way they will
   finally realise who has truly been Pakistan's friend in our times of need.

   While the President has been enjoying Europe, the floods have revealed the
   sheer incompetence of our bureaucracy and the total lack of disaster
   management infrastructure. Despite ERRA and then NDMA and the earlier
   spendin g on the NLC -- it is time the Planning Commission investigated
   the NLC since it came into being under its purview - we have progressed
   not an iota in terms of coping with natural disasters, or manmade ones
   either. While one concedes that these floods are unprecedented, yet every
   year the monsoons bring floods and every year there is a disaster with no
   SOPs that immediately become operationalised. Only on paper we have grand
   schemes one after another but they remain confined to dusty files at best.
   Pakistan's bureaucracy is truly a white elephant that continues to
   undermine the welfare of the people rather than furthering it. Not that
   the political rulers are faring much better. Where there is disaffection
   with the workings of local officials, for instance in Punjab, they are
   simply being removed or transferred. But the problem is that for any new
   person to come into an outlying area in the midst of a disaster is to make
   the situation much worse since he is not acquainted at all with the lay of
   the land so to speak. Yet, this is what has happened in many parts of
   southern Punjab which has further aggravated the flood disaster. Despite
   all the photo ops of the CM and PM touring disaster areas - either by boat
   or helicopter - once they are gone so is any presence of the civil
   administration. When all is said and done it is the military that is
   showing a continuous presence, especially in difficult-to-access areas or
   areas that are off the national radar screen.

   At this time, substantive external humanitarian aid would have been
   welcome but most external donors, especially the rich developed states are
   showing no signs of giving any cash to the government because of a trust
   deficit. It is truly shameful that even in these times of humanitarian
   crisis of a scale larger than the 2005 Kashmir earthquake and the 2004
   Tsunami put together, foreign donors including our so-called allies are
   not prepared to trust our leaders to pass on the money th ey would get to
   those in need. As a nation we should hang our heads in shame for having
   leaders who inspire no monetary trust or credibility, even when their
   people have been hit by catastrophic floods. Truly our rulers are seeking
   to reduce us to nothingness. Mercifully, this nation is far greater and
   more resilient than all its detractors.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The Nation Online in English -- Website
   of a conservative daily, part of the Nawa-i-Waqt publishing group.
   Circulation around 20,000; URL: http://www.nation.com.pk)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   62) Back to Top
   West Indian Press 11 Aug 10
   The following is a selection of highlights from the West Ind ian press on
   11 August 2010 - India -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 10:52:31 GMT
   The editorial says two huge container ships collided while coming into the
   port at Mumbai and the oil from the ship spilt into the sea. It says the
   ship MSC Chitra has suffered the most damage in the collision and nearly
   300 containers from that ship have sunk into the sea. Though some of the
   containers are still floating, some have sunk to the bottom of the sea and
   that poses threat to the traffic of ships, it says. It says though the
   task of recovering the containers still afloat and those sunk to the
   bottom is under way with the help of a foreign company, there is no
   guarantee that the task would be totally successful. The editorial says
   the Coast Guards succeeded in stopping the oil leakage from the ship on 9
   August, the oil slick has spread far and wide by now. It says this oil
   slick pose s a grave threat to the marine ecosystem. It is always a big
   challenge to keep the damage through such accidents to the minimum, it
   says.

   Pointing out the loss to the fishermen, the editorial wonders how the loss
   would be compensated. It says Mumbai ports are becoming more and more
   dangerous for the past few years because of the neglect by concerned
   agencies. In the past 13 years, 10 small and big ships have sunk here and
   over 30 small boats are lying here unclaimed, it says, adding it also
   poses a grave threat to the environment and security. The agencies
   responsible for maintaining the coastline and ports are not doing their
   duty properly, otherwise the crisis would not have been created, the
   editorial concludes.

   (Mumbai Sakal in Marathi -- Widely read Marathi daily published in Mumbai)
   Loksatta Editorial Says Maharashtra Environment Deteriorates Owing To
   River Pollution Loksatta

   online of 11 August in Marathi carries an approximately 800-word edit
   orial entitled: "The Ugly Face of Rivers." The editorial says though
   Maharashtra is lagging behind other states in industrialization, foreign
   investment, economic growth, etc., it has maintained its lead in one
   thing--river pollution. It says its environment is deteriorating and the
   Central Pollution Control Board report says rivers in Maharashtra top the
   pollution list. Recalling that union Forest and Environment Minister
   Jairam Ramesh termed the rivers in Maharashtra as "big sewers," the
   editorial says river pollution not only poses a health hazard, but also
   creates problems of livelihood for people living on its banks.

   The editorial says along with increasing river pollution, the chasm of
   inequality in rural and urban areas is also increasing, which is giving
   rise to conflict between them. It says there is no need to give figures to
   prove how big a share the cities have in polluting rivers. It says it is
   not easy to take up the challenge of improving the condition of polluted
   rivers, but we would have to take up that challenge. The editorial says if
   indu strial pollution were checked, it would reduce the burden of
   pollution on rivers. It says the real challenge is of treating the
   effluent being created in cities.

   The editorial says the reason for looking at rivers with such seriousness
   is that they are mirrors of the environment around. It says their
   condition gives an idea about the environment around. The editorial says
   improvement in rivers would solve most of the problems related to
   environment. The editorial says if there are basic problems like river
   pollution even after 50 years, all the talk about development and progress
   is meaningless.

   (Mumbai Loksatta in Marathi -- Widely read Marathi-language daily, part of
   Indian Express Group, with circulation of 340,000. Focuses on local news
   of India's financial center, Mumbai)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyri ghted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   63) Back to Top
   Xinhua 'Roundup': Canadian Stocks Tumble as Pessimism About World Economy
   Increases
   Xinhua "Roundup": "Canadian Stocks Tumble as Pessimism About World Economy
   Increases" - Xinhua
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 22:31:58 GMT
   TORONTO, Aug. 11 (Xinhua) -- The Canadian stocks tumbled on Wednesday as
   pessimism about the global economy increased amid further signs of a
   slowing recovery. The S&amp;amp;P/TSX Composite Index closed 256.08 points or
   2.16 percent lower at 11,582.21.

   All the sectors on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) registered losses with
   the index measuring the diversified met als and mining sector losing 4.41
   percent.Lundin Mining Corp. decreased 7.40 percent. First Quantum Minerals
   Ltd. declined 5.24 percent. Teck Resources Ltd., Canada's largest
   base-metals producer, dropped 4.02 percent.Crude oil for September
   delivery reduced 0.71 percent to 77.34 U.S. dollars a barrel on the New
   York Mercantile Exchange on Wednesday. Gold for September delivery lost
   0.13 percent to 1,199. 90 U.S. dollars an ounce. Copper shrank 2.17
   percent. Raw materials account for about half of Canada's export revenue.
   Oil is Canada's largest export.The index measuring the energy sector on
   the TSX reduced 2.84 percent. Suncor Energy Inc., Canada's largest energy
   producer, tumbled 4.00 percent. Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. declined
   3. 93 percent.The index measuring the financials sector on the TSX
   decreased 2.40 percent. Manulife Financial Corp., Canada's largest
   insurer, dropped 4.28 percent. Royal Bank of Canada, the country's largest
   lender, reduced 2.42 percent.Stat istics Canada said on Wednesday that
   Canada's trade deficit with the rest of the world widened to 1.1 billion
   U.S. dollars in June from 695 million U.S. dollars in May.In the United
   States, the National Association of Realtors released a report on
   Wednesday showing the median price of a single-family home crept up 1.5
   percent to 176,900 U.S. dollars in the second quarter, versus the previous
   year.According to the U.S. Office of Management and Budget on Wednesday,
   the country had a 165.04 billion U.S. dollars budget deficit in July. The
   United States is Canada's largest trade partner.A raft of data from China
   reflected a mostly downbeat July -- inflation rates missed expectations,
   industrial production eased to the lowest level this year and retail sales
   slowed.On the currency front, the Canadian dollar depreciated further
   against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday.One U.S. dollar was buying
   1.0463 Canadian dollars at 5 p.m. local time (2100 GMT), compared with one
   U.S. dollar buying 1.0303 Canadian dollars on Tuesday.(Description of
   Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for
   English-language audiences (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   64) Back to Top
   Mexico Regional Press 11 Aug 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Mexico -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 18:56:53 GMT
   Acapulco, Guerrero, El Sur reports that the Secretary General of the
   National Action Party (PAN) in Guerrero Oscar Medina Rodriguez affirmed
   that the poll the was presented by the former head of the party and
   current national councillor Carlos Millan Sanchez that claims that 65% of
   the members of the PAN are against joining the Party of the Democratic
   Revolution (PRD)-Labor Party (PT)-Convergence Party alliance is false.
   "The party members are in favor of the coalition and we do not know where
   he got those numbers. (...) The Party has a structure, the leader is
   Senator Adrian Rivera Perez who has not instructed any polls to be carried
   out; he has been conducting official surveys with the members about
   joining a coalition along with the national committee, there are good
   possibilities of joining an electoral coalition and any declarations that
   express the contrary are strictly personal, and do not represent the PAN,"
   said Medina. (Acapulco El Sur Online in Spanish - Website of daily from
   Guerrero State; URL:

   http://www.suracapulco.com.mx/ http://www.suracapulco.com.mx ) PT Rejects
   Supporting Acapulco Mayor, PRI --

   Acapulc o, Guerrero, El Sur reports that the head of the PT in Guerrero
   Fredy Garcia Guevara has ruled out he possibility of his party supporting
   Acapulco Mayor Manuel Anorve Banos and the Institutional Revolutionary
   Party (PRI) in the gubernatorial race due to the fact that the national
   executive board has determined to participate in a coalition with the PRD
   and the Convergence Party as part of the Dialogue for the Reconstruction
   of Mexico (DIA) Alliance. CHIHUAHUA Congress Officially Declares
   Governor-elect; Duarte Not Present --

   Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua, El Diario reports that during an extraordinary
   congressional session, Cesar Duarte Jaquez was officially declared the
   Chihuahua Governor-elect. Duarte, who was not present at the session, will
   serve his gubernatorial term from 4 October 2010 to 3 October 2016. Also
   absent was the parliamentary coordinator of the PAN Fernando Alvarez
   Monje. (Ciudad Juarez El Diario Online in Spanish -- Website of most
   widely read daily in border area, founded in 1976 and published in
   Chihuahua State; URL:

   http://www.diario.com.mx/ http://www.diario.com.mx ) POLITICS

   General Urbano Perez Banuelos

   QUINTANA ROO Cancun Hotel Zone Controlled by Zetas Cartel --

   Merida, Yucatan, PorEsto! reports that General Urbano Perez Banuelos not
   only allegedly turned the Secretariat of Public Security (SSP) in Cancun
   over to the organized crime, but he also "gave" the control and management
   of the Cancun Hotel Zone to the Zetas cartel. According to undisclosed
   official sources in the secretariat, when the Mexican Army was tightening
   its grip around the criminal organizations with a series of arrests and
   operations in September 2009, the head of the police granted full impunity
   to the criminals that were operating inside the main tourist area by
   banning the entrance of the military forces into the area. According to
   the statistics presented by the local authorities, the criminal acti vity
   in the hotel zone has increased by 80% and it is affecting both the
   businesses and the residential areas. The incidence of drug dealing and
   prostitution in the heart of the hotel zone has also greatly increased.
   (Merida PorEsto! Online in Spanish -- Website of high-circulation Yucatan
   State Por Esto! daily, moderately critical of the federal government; URL:

   http://www.poresto.net/ http://www.poresto.net ) ECONOMY OAXACA One
   Million Hectares Alloted for Mining Industry --

   Oaxaca, Oaxaca, Diario Despertar reports that since 2008, twenty mining
   projects have been approved an d have been granted to fifteen different
   foreign and domestic companies in order to promote the exploration and
   exploitation of 12.5% of the territory in the state of Oaxaca, which
   amounts to approximately one million hectares of land. However, according
   to studies that have been conducted, the arrival of mining companies to
   the towns and municipalities has generated a number of problems that have
   resulted in conflicts and even violence. The mining history in Oaxaca goes
   back to colonial times and is filled with episodes of looting and the use
   of the land by foreign-owned companies, a situation that continues to date
   with the Canadian, US, Australian and European mining companies that are
   settled in the area. Oaxaca is rich in a great diversity of minerals
   including silver, gold, lead, zinc, iron, titanium and uranium. In spite
   of the economic potential that the mining industry brings about, it also
   implies the creation of serious environmental, social, and cultural issues
   that must be addressed. (Oaxaca Diario Despertar Online in Spanish --
   Website of daily from Oaxaca State, founded in 2008 and published by
   Editorial Tercer Milenio, S.A.; URL:

   http://www.diariodespertar.com.mx/ http://www.diariodespertar.com.mx )

   The following media were scanned and no file worthy items were found:

   Guadalajara Mural.com, Hermosillo El Imparcial.com, M erida El Diario de
   Yucatan, Mexico City El Universal.com.mx, Mexico City Excelsior Online,
   Mexico City La Jornada Online, Mexico City Milenio.com, Mexico City
   Reforma.com, Monterrey El Norte.com, Oaxaca El Imparcial Online, Tijuana
   Frontera.info, and Tuxtla Gutierrez Cuarto Poder.com.mx

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   65) Back to Top
   Russian, US, Canadian air forces hold antiterrorist drill over North
   Pacific - Channel One TV
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 16:42:36 GMT
   North Pacific

   Text of report by state-controlled Russian Channel One TV on 11
   August(Presenter) Military pilots from Russia , the USA and Canada have
   completed the first stage of an antiterrorist exercise over the Pacific.
   The pilots' joint training was coordinated by two command centres, one in
   Khabarovsk and one in Alaska. At the start of the manoeuvres,
   reconnaissance aircraft were ordered up, alongside NATO and Russian Air
   Force fighters. Irina Chechuy has the details.(Correspondent) The
   antiterrorist exercise is being held over the north Pacific. Until now,
   military pilots from Russia, the USA and Canada have never staged joint
   manoeuvres on such a large scale. The operation was codenamed Vigilant
   Eagle. According to the exercise scenario, terrorists hijacked a civilian
   aircraft, Gulf Stream, which took off from the USA on an international
   flight. There are 10 people on board. The terrorists' demand is that the
   aircraft be allowed to land at a certain aerodrome in the Russian Far
   East, after which contact with the crew is lost.(Col Todd Balfe, Canadian
   Air Force, back translated from Russian ) At first the aircraft is
   escorted by US F-22 Raptor fighters, and then in the Russian air space,
   they are replaced by the MiG-31 and the Su-27. Our main goal is to
   practise the escorting of the aircraft and the handover of control over it
   from one country's air force to colleagues from another
   country.(Correspondent) Reconnaissance and tanker aircraft from the
   countries taking part in the drill are also involved. Joint work goes on
   everywhere, in the air and on the ground. The drill is coordinated by the
   US and Russian air forces, at the Elmendorf base in Alaska and at a
   command post in Khabarovsk.(Robert Martin, North American Aerospace
   Defence Command deputy chief for current operations, back translated from
   Russian) There is communication and exchange of information at every stage
   of the drill, from takeoff in Anchorage and throughout the flight. For us,
   it is a very useful experience.(Correspondent) After the end of the
   exercise, the civilian aircraft flew back immedia tely, taking the same
   route. This time the Russian Air Force escorted it to the US border and
   handed it over to US pilots. The North American Aerospace Defence Command
   and the Russian Air Force Command are pleased with the results of the
   joint manoeuvres.(Igor Sulim, chief of the frontline and army aviation
   directorate of the Russian Air Force Main Command) It is not about who is
   better. We have one objective, the fight against air terrorism. We find
   areas of common interests and achieve the objectives mutually successfully
   and well.(Correspondent) This first stage of the exercise, which concluded
   in the air over the Pacific, has already been described by airmen as very
   successful, and by the Americans, even as historic. It has been decided
   that manoeuvres of this type will be repeated regularly.(A report by
   Russian state news agency ITAR-TASS identified the "reconnaissance"
   aircraft involved in the exercise as Russia's A-50 and USA's AWACS."The
   exercise leade rship assesses the results as positive and believes that
   the objectives have been achieved," a later ITAR-TASS report quoted
   Maj-Gen Sulim saying. "The personnel at command posts as well as fighter
   pilots and the crews of S-50 (as received) and AWACS control aircraft
   displayed high professionalism in their actions, which was the foundation
   of the overall success. Not a single element of the exercise failed, in
   the air or on the ground," he added.A report by corporate-owned Russian
   military news agency Interfax-AVN quoted Russian Air Force
   Commander-in-Chief Aleksandr Zelin as saying: "The exercise plan has been
   carried out in full. I have already ordered the crews of our aircraft to
   return to their bases." He said the exercise was necessary because of "the
   potential threat of hijacking of aircraft and their flight towards Russia,
   the USA or Canada", adding that "it was necessary to practise joint
   actions (...) so as to avoid the repeti tion of 9/11". Zelin also said
   that the zones of responsibility of the Canadian, US, and Russian Air
   Forces were determined "for the prevention of hijacking of aircraft and
   unauthorized flights towards populated areas". He also suggested holding
   similar drills in Europe, Interfax-AVN reported.)(Description of Source:
   Moscow Channel One TV in Russian -- Large state-owned network covering
   most of Russia and parts of the CIS)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   66) Back to Top
   Russian, US, Canadian Air Forces Share Zones Over Pacific - ITAR-TASS
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 16:36:34 GMT
   intervention)

   ZARYA VILLAGE, Moscow Region, August 11 (Itar-Tass) -- The air forces of
   Russia, the USA and Canada at their first-ever joint exercise Vigilant
   Eagle-2010 defined areas of responsibility over the northern Pacific Ocean
   to prevent the hijacking of aircraft and recurrences of the tragedy of
   Sept. 11, 2001, Russian Air Force Commander Colonel-General Alexander
   Zelin told reporters on the eve of the 89th anniversary of the Russian Air
   Force."Today, this exercise has been successfully completed. The plan was
   fully implemented. I have already given orders to the crews of our
   aircraft to return to base," Zelin said.He explained the need for these
   exercises stemmed from the "potential risk of seizure of aircraft and
   their movement towards Russia, the United States or Canada.""It was
   necessary to work out a pattern for joint action: the transfer of control
   of the situation from the air force of one country to another,
   accommodation of the hijacked plane, and joint action to force it to land,
   as well as other tasks crucial to ensuring there be no more 9/11s," said
   Zelin."We identified the areas of responsibility of the Canadian, U.S. and
   Russian air forces to prevent hijacks of aircraft and unauthorized flights
   in the direction of cities," said the Russian Air Force commander.The
   first Russian-American counter-terrorism exercise involving the Air Force
   and civil air traffic control services began in Alaska on August 8. It was
   codenamed Vigilant Eagle. As the official representative of the North
   American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) Major Michael Humphreys told
   Itar-Tass earlier, according to the exercise's scenario, terrorists have
   hijacked an American civil aircraft during an international flight.
   Communication with the plane has been lost. The simulator plane flew from
   Alaska to the Far East, and then back along the same route.To detect and
   track the target fighter planes were ordered in to the air. In addition,
   two reconnaissance aircraft - Russia' s A-50 and a U.S. AWACS - as well as
   tanker planes of the two countries participated in the exercise.According
   to the scenario, the terrorists hijacked a Gulfstream airplane carrying
   ten passengers that left Anchorage (Alaska) towards the Far East. U.S. Air
   Force fighter jets intercepted the plane and accompanied it to the border.
   As the plane approached the border of Russia, NORAD handed over
   responsibility for its interception to the Russian Air Force, which was
   supposed to keep track of the aircraft until its landing. The next day the
   plane began the return journey along the same route and now the Russian
   Air Force kept track of the "hijacked plane" to the U.S. border and there
   handed over control over to U.S. pilots from NORAD.The Vigilant Eagle
   exercise was coordinated by the air forces of the two countries in
   Khabarovsk and from the base Elmendorf (Alaska) with support from
   specialists at the Fede ral Air Navigation Service of Russia and the U.S.
   Federal Aviation Administration. The exercises are conducted under an
   agreement on military cooperation signed by the presidents of the Russian
   Federation and the United States of America. Canadian Air Force personnel
   was used. NORAD is a joint US-Canadian command.(Description of Source:
   Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   67) Back to Top
   Taiwan Opinion 12 Aug 10 - Taiwan -- OSC Summary
   Thursday August 12, 2010 04:37:49 GMT
   - According to a column in Chung-kuo Shih-pao by Liu Pin, recently both
   the US government and the US academic field gave a high grade for Ma
   Ying-jeou's performance, and the most impressive thing is that an ECFA
   (economic cooperation framework agreement), which was most strongly
   criticized by the DPP, was Ma's most remarkable achievement in the eyes of
   the United States. In fact, the United States has never held a negative
   view over intensified cross-Strait exchange, and neither had it worried
   that Taiwan and mainland China were getting too close. A legislator had
   tried to make US officials express concerns over the close ties between
   Taiwan and mainland China, but he failed. The United States is not
   worried, the article says, and Taiwan is also confident because there is
   in fact a big gap between Taiwan and mainland China in terms of democracy,
   laws, and humanities. Moreover, Ma Ying-jeou has pledged "no unification,
   no independence, and no use of forces" in his inaugural speech, and he
   enjoys a good credibility for his words. The United States is only unhappy
   with the US beef event. A small flaw cannot obscure the Ma regime's
   achievement, the article says; but the United States would not forget the
   event because it is a matter concerning international credibility. (Taipei
   Chung-Kuo Shih-Pao (Internet Version-WWW) in Chinese -- Internet version
   of daily newspaper provides good coverage of political affairs, generally
   takes a pro-unification stance. Root URL as of filing time:

   http://www.chinatimes.com.tw/ http://www.chinatimes.com.tw ) "Beijing
   Recognizes Only Half of 1992 Consensus"

   - According to an article in Lien-ho Pao by Chen Yi-hsin, Tamkang
   University professor, ARATS (Association for Relations Across the Taiwan
   Strait) Deputy Director Li Yafei said on 11 August that the "1992
   consensus" refers to the consensus that the ARATS and the SEF (Strait
   Exchange Foundation) reached in 1992, and under which each side of the
   Taiwan Strait orally interprets th eir insistence on the one China
   principle. However, what Li Yafei has said is somehow different from what
   we think. We think the 1992 consensus refers to an important consensus
   reached in 1992, and it means that each side of the Taiwan Strait
   interprets "one China" separately. We said so, and mainland China agreed,
   and based on the consensus, there were the Wang Daohan-Koo Chen-fu
   meetings afterwards. The KMT has been insisting on the 1992 consensus, and
   regarding it as an important foundation for cross-Strait relationship.
   After Ma Ying-jeou won the presidential election in 2009, both Hu Jintao
   and then US President Bush both pointed out that the 1992 consensus would
   be the key to the start of cross-strait talks. The thing is that in Li
   Yafei's recent remark, he has only mentioned the first half of the formula
   - "one China, separately interpreted by each side of the Taiwan Strait,"
   and ignored the second half. By doing so, he has destroyed the gist of th
   e 1992 consensus. (Taipei Lien-ho Pao (Internet Version-WWW) in Chinese -
   Website of a leading daily newspaper which consistently favors pan-blue
   politicians and issues. Root URL as of filing time:

   http://www.udnnews.com.tw/ http://www.udnnews.com.tw ) "Referendum
   People's Basic Rights"

   - According to an article in Tzu-yu Shih-pao by a doctor named Shen
   Cheng-nan, the TSU's ECFA proposal was again rejected by the Referendum
   Screening Committee. It was because people's pressure was not big enough,
   the article says, so the Referendum Screening Committee and the political
   force behind the committee dared to do whatever they wanted. The Costa
   Rican Government also rejected a referendum proposal several times, but it
   yielded at last in the wake of the people's continuous protests. Holding
   an ECFA referendum is Ta iwan people's basic rights, and Taiwan people
   should not remain silent when their basic rights are being infringed.
   (Taipei Tzu-yu Shih-pao -- In ternet version of widely read Taiwan daily
   which supports Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) position and often
   exhibits a pro-independence bias, especially in its editorial and other
   opinion pieces. Root URL as of filing time:

   http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/ http://www.libertytimes.com.tw ) "Without
   Opposing ECFA, How Can We Protect Taiwan?"

   - According to an article in Tzu-yu Shih-pao by Tsai Mu-chang, DPP
   Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen said recently that we should focus on the five
   municipality elections instead of wasting our energy on opposing ECFA in
   vain. There is a logic mistake and a misjudgment in her words, the article
   says. It is the "line" that distinguishes the KMT and the DPP, and the
   ECFA is a key issue that separates the unification line and the
   independence line. Ma Ying Chiu and Wen Jiabao promoted the ECFA with
   all-out efforts because the KMT and the CPC were joining hands to absorb
   Taiwan's funds and to head for unification. T herefore, the ECFA issue
   should be the major topic in the five municipality elections, the article
   says, and it would be ridiculous if the DPP abandons this battlefield.
   Without calling on people to oppose the ECFA and therefore arouse people's
   Taiwan-protection awareness, how can the DPP race against the KMT, which
   owns a huge sum of party assets? (Tzu-yu Shih-pao)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
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   68) Back to Top
   Russian, U.S., Canadian Air Forces Complete Hijack Exercise - Interfax
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 15:27:16 GMT
   ZARYA, Moscow region. Aug 11 (Interfax-AVN) - An international exercise
   involving Russia, the United States and Canada aimed at making it more
   difficult for terrorists to hijack planes has ended over the northern
   waters of the Pacific Ocean, Russian Air Force commander-in-chief
   Alexander Zelin said on Wednesday.The Vigilant Eagle "drill was
   successfully completed today. The exercise plan has been fulfilled. I have
   already commanded that our aircraft crews return to their bases," the
   commander-in-chief said.The need to conduct the drill was due "to the
   potential risk of aircraft hijacking and their movement towards Russia,
   the U.S. or Canada," he said."Joint operations had to be practiced such as
   handover of control (from one country's Air Force to another's), meeting
   (a hijacked plane), joint operations to force landing and other tasks to
   avoid a repeat of the September 11 tragedy," the commander-in-chief
   said.During the exercise the Russian, Canadian and U.S. air forces divided
   responsibility zones "to prevent the hijacking of aircraft and
   unauthorized flights to populated areas," he said.Similar drills must also
   continue in Europe, given that such maneuvers called Combat Commonwealth
   are already being held in the CIS, he said.The Russian and U.S. air forces
   have successfully conducted the joint exercise to practice cooperation in
   the event of an aircraft hijacking by terrorists, Russian Defense Ministry
   spokesman Vladimir Drik told Interfax-AVN earlier.During the exercise, a
   chartered jet played the role of a hijacked commercial airliner flying
   across the Pacific. "The flight plans were duly submitted. The aircraft
   was hijacked after takeoff," Drik said.Using airborne warning and control
   system (AWACS) aircraft, the U.S. air force escorted the hijacked airplane
   and passed on information about the hijacking and terrorists to Russia.As
   part of the drill, the Russian air force's A-50 airborne early warning
   aircraft then took off to take "control over the hijacke d plane
   &amp;amp;#8743 was transferred from AWACS to A-50 when approaching Russian
   airspace," the official said.Also, fighter aircraft took off from a
   Russian airfield to intercept and escort the hijacked airplane until it
   left Russian airspace, Drik said.The ground-breaking drill marked a new
   stage in international cooperation in preventing possible threats
   emanating from air terrorism, he said.The exercise involved Russian air
   force's command posts in the Far East and the North American Aerospace
   Defense Command.kk ap(Our editorial staff can be reached at
   eng.editors@interfax.ru)Interfax-950040-DUZZCBAA

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   69) Back to Top
   Indian Media Highlights 10-11 Aug 10 - India -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 07:38:26 GMT
   : Indian apparel exporters are "in for fresh trouble" as the US Government
   has put India among a list of countries that use child labor (Business
   Standard, SAP20100810494009). US Visa

   : Terming the US proposal to increase visa fees as discriminatory, Indian
   Commerce Minister Anand Sharma said it would cost Indian firms $200
   million extra a year and "make them less competitive" (PTI,
   SAP20100811950023). Indian industry feels the US President has not issued
   any red signal on the march of its IT industry (Business Standard,
   SAP20100811494002). Defense Cooperation

   : Ahead of the September US visit by the Indian defense minister, New
   Delhi and Washington exchanged notes on fostering defense cooperation
   through more equipment sales, greater joint exercises, frequent high-level
   exchang es and the possibility of inking three military agreements (The
   Hindu, SAP20100811532001). Kashmir

   : In his first initiative to address the latest Kashmir unrest, the Indian
   prime minister on 10 August urged Kashmiris to "give peace a chance" and
   promised a political solution "that addresses the alienation and emotional
   needs of the people" there through sustained "internal and external"
   dialogue (

   http://www.pmindia.gov.in/ www.pmindia.gov.in, SAP20100810534020). Singh's
   speech has evoked mixed reaction in the state with separatist leaders
   maintaining that jobs and economic packages can't be substitute to the
   right of self-determinations while the mainstream parties see it as an
   opportunity to restore peace in the Valley (Greater Kashmir,
   SAP20100811384003). HuJI Attack Alert

   : Intelligence inputs say Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami is planning terror
   attacks in West Bengal and Assam before 15 August (DNA,
   SAP20100811571001). New NIA Wing

   : A special wing will be set up under the National Investigation Agency to
   keep a close watch on terror funding. (DNA, SAP20100810571001). Maoists
   Expand Base in Bihar

   : Confined to south Bihar till a few years ago, Maoists have now started
   making their presence felt in the northern parts of the state (The
   Telegraph, SAP20100810571002). Nuclear Liability Bill

   : With the Bharatiya Janata Party joining hands with the Left in opposing
   the Civil Nuclear Liability Bill, the government is "nervous" of getting
   the Bill cleared before early November (New Indian Express,
   SAP20100810532017). Private Participation in Defense Technology

   : All India Defence Employees Federation has opposed the Defense
   Ministry's nod for private sector participation in defense technology. The
   federation has threatened strike if the decision is not rolled back (New
   Indian Express, SAP20100810532018). Rise in Mobile Internet Users

   : According to estimat es from the Internet and Mobile Association of
   India, telecom operators and Internet companies, the number of people who
   may have accessed Internet through their mobile phones in the past eight
   months has gone up to around 20 million as against 12 million in 2009
   (Indian Express, SAP20100810534012).

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   70) Back to Top
   Ukraine To Consider Grain Exports Quotas - ITAR-TASS
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 10:13:55 GMT
   intervention)

   KIEV, August 11 (Itar-Tass) -- Ukraine has already harvested 28.136
   million tons of grain out of the overall 42 million tons it plans to
   harvest in 2010, a source in the country's ministry of agrarian policy
   told Itar-Tass on Wednesday.According to the source, the initial plans
   were to harvest 46 million tons of grain, still less the record-breaking
   2008 harvest of 53 million tons.Ukraine's Agrarian Fund has already
   announced its plans to set up a state grain fund of 5 million tons to keep
   the prices down. During the past week, bread prices were reported to go up
   in a number of Ukrainian regions, although governmental efforts brought
   them down to their usual level.Meanwhile, Minister of Agrarian Policy
   Nikolai Prisyazhnyuk did not rule out that prices for bread baked from
   grain of the new harvest might go up. Unfavourable climate conditions -
   heavy rains in early June followed by unprecedented heat - have forced the
   ministry to adjust its harvest forecasts.According to experts, Ukraine is
   in for wheat deficit, which might be covered through wheat imports. "The
   wheat harvest is expected not to exceed 8 mi llion tons, while the
   country's demand is 12 million tons," said Alexander Zhemoida, deputy
   director general of the Ukrainian Agrarian Chamber. In his words, wheat
   will be imported from the United States and Canada, since the country
   cannot count on imports from neighbouring Russia, also hit by drought and
   wildfires.The ministry of agrarian policy has suggested the government
   introduce quotas on grain exports to prevent price hikes on the domestic
   market. The issue will be discussed by the government on
   Wednesday.According to the ministry, 17.49 million tons of wheat have
   already been harvested from an area of 6.19 million hectares, which
   accounts for 97 percent of the forecasted figure, given an average crop
   capacity of 282 kilograms per hectare. The barley yield is 9.13 million
   tons (98 percent of the forecast), with crop capacity of 212 kilograms per
   hectare. A total of 478,000 tons of rye have been threshed with the
   average crop capacity of 178 kilograms per hectare , and 482,000 tons of
   peas (98 percent of the forecasted figure) have been also harvested.
   Harvesting campaign has started for buckwheat and millet.(Description of
   Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)

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   71) Back to Top
   Mugabe Leaves for 'Week-Long' Official Visit to China
   Report by Caesar Zvayi: "President Leaves for China" - The Herald Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 07:37:21 GMT
   (Description of Source: Harare The Herald Online in English -- Website of
   state-owned daily that frequently acts as a mouthpiece for ZANU-PF and
   nominally distributed nationwide; URL: http://www.herald.co.zw)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   72) Back to Top
   Russia Grain Exports Ban Not To Cause Deficit On World Mrkt-Vilsak -
   ITAR-TASS
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 07:20:06 GMT
   intervention)

   WASHINGTON, August 11 (Itar-Tass) - The temporary ban on the exports of
   grain introduced by the Russian government will not cause its considerable
   deficit on the world market, US Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack told
   journalists on Tuesday in a telephone conference during his visit to
   Canada.The US agriculture secretary stressed a bove all that the US
   authorities unquestionably realise that Russia has found itself in a
   difficult situation and its farmers are facing a severe drought and
   large-scale forest fires. However, in the current situation, unlike
   similar circumstances in the past, fortunately there is an impression that
   other countries, including the United States, will compensate for the
   decline caused by the RF suspension of grain supplies to external markets,
   Vilsack noted. "There are other countries, including the United States,
   where wheat production is steady and robust enough not to put us in a
   situation where we were several years ago when there was a potential
   shortage globally," Vilsack told reporters. "Working with our Canadian
   friends and others in the (European Union) we'll be able to deal with the
   difficulties Russia's situation created.""Fortunately, for the United
   States and the rest of the world, the United States and other countries
   are prepared to prov ide the wheat that is necessary to meet the global
   needs... so we don't face serious shortages," he said.Commenting on the
   issue of American poultry supplies to the Russian market he said that
   Moscow sought to get the right to inspect enterprises producing poultry
   meat for exports to the RF. It was not part of an agreement (on the
   resumption of American poultry supplies to Russia), the agriculture
   secretary said.According to him, Washington has already handed to Moscow
   the list of all (American) enterprises capable of fulfilling the
   conditions of the agreement, but the Russian side has put forward another
   demand - they want to visit these enterprises. Meanwhile, from the
   viewpoint of the US government, there is no actual need in that, Vilsack
   said.Asked to specify if he had already discussed the world grain market
   situation with his Canadian colleague Jerry Ritz he answered in the
   negative explaining that they had not held a meeting yet. Vilsack
   simultaneously confirmed that he planned to consider this issue at talks
   with Ritz. He said, he thinks that some districts of Canada will also face
   certain challenges (with the grain harvest).(Description of Source: Moscow
   ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)

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   73) Back to Top
   Viktor Bout Imprisoned In Thailand Struggles For Release - ITAR-TASS
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 13:25:58 GMT
   intervention)

   BANGKOK, August 11 (Itar-Tass) -- Russian businessman Viktor Bout
   imprisoned in Thailand is ready to take resolute measures for his own
   release, Bout declared in a statement that was turned over to Itar-Tass
   office by his lawyer. Exactly a year has passed since the Thai court
   passed the verdict, refusing to extradite Bout to the United States, but
   Bout still remains in custody, pending resolution by the Appeals'
   Court.Over the past year a total of 27 appeals, asking to release Bout on
   bail, had been submitted, but all of them were turned down despite
   declarations made by the Russian embassy that came out as a co-guarantor.
   "The answer was that I am a foreigner and can escape from the country,"
   Bout said."Being convoyed to courtroom with rusty handcuffs on, wearing
   clothes that humiliate human dignity, banning my correspondence in
   Russian, shortening visitors' presence from 30 to15 minutes and
   prohibiting telephone calls do not conform even to minimal standars of the
   international law," Bout said. The Thai authorities declared equal rights
   to everyone but denied these rights to me. Being kept under arrest in
   confine ment, I am serving punishment as a criminal despite a verdict of
   acquittal. Unlike the rest of the convicts I do not know when my term in
   prison ends. I am fully determined to struggle and press ahead for
   justice. I am grateful to all who support me in my struggle," Bout said.In
   an interview to Itar-Tass Viktor Bout said Tuesday that "being denied
   release on bail the authorities obviously resort to double standards. They
   give this right to everyone, even to suspects in terrorism, except
   myself," Bout said."On August 11, 2009 the Thai Court relieved me of all
   charges and refused to extradite me to the United States. The US side
   attempted to revise the case and had been putting all kinds of pressure on
   Thai justice to procrastinate the case," Bout said. He ridiculed western
   media allegations that Thailand wants to exchange Bout either into Russian
   oil delivered at a discount or even a funnier deal- chicken exports to
   Russia in exchange for Bout's relea se. Viktor Bout dismissed these
   speculations as "a dirty PR campaign" and expressed hope that common sense
   would triumph and that the Royal court would be just to him."I am not
   discouraged and is prepared for a resolute struggle for my freedom," Bout
   stressed. He expressed hope that he would be released on bail, pending
   resolution by the Appeals Court. "Keeping an innocent man behind iron bars
   for a whole year is a blatant violation of human rights," Bout said.Viktor
   Bout was detained in Bangkok on a US warrant in March, 2008 as a suspect
   in weapons smuggling to the FARC organization in Colombia.In August 2009,
   the Thai court dropped all the charges against Bout. Since then the
   innocent Russian citizen is expecting the Appeals Court's decision in
   custody, sharing a prison cell with 39 other inmates in a maximum security
   prison.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main
   government information agency)

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   74) Back to Top
   Daily urges US to ignore proposal for Afghanistan's division - Weesa
   Monday July 12, 2010 12:49:51 GMT
   Text of editorial entitled "This country has not changed" published by
   pro-government Afghan newspaper Weesa on 10 JulyMr Robert Blackwill, the
   former US ambassador to India, has recently advised America to divide
   Afghanistan into two parts as an alternative to America's defeat in
   Afghanistan. His proposal has been published simultaneously in an American
   and The Times India dailies. Afghanistan is not a McDonald's burger that
   can half be eaten or given to someone or divided into two parts. However,
   there are two points clear in this American diplomat's meaningless
   article:Firstly, the present American policy is truly facing failure and
   humiliation in Afghanistan and now they are trying to seek a solution to
   it. However, no one can come to this country with ill intentions and leave
   it with victory. Afghanistan defeated two empires in the early and late
   last century. They had come to destroy and disintegrate our country. God
   willing, these remarks will play a major role in boosting our national
   unity and will open the eyes of those who seek their interest in the
   presence of others.Afghanistan is not a piece of land that has no owner
   and that America or any other country can willingly divide into many parts
   or use it for its personal objectives. The Soviet Union is a clear example
   of this. It failed in its conspiracy to get the fraternal ethnic groups
   embroiled into fighting with tribal militias and this is a lesson to every
   other empi re.Secondly, foreign countries, which have come to Afghanistan
   under the mandate of the UN Security Council, are completely careless
   regarding the Afghan people. They are pursuing their own objectives and
   they may suffer humiliation and defeat because of their intentions to
   divide our country. The Afghan people, intellectuals, media and the
   government should not remain silent about these remarks by the former US
   ambassador to India. Every side should react to these remarks.This
   American has seriously insulted all of us, especially Tajik, Uzbek and
   Hazara brothers by saying that they will cooperate with America in
   dividing their country. There are stooges like the pro-Russia supporters
   in every nation. If senior American officials view Afghanistan from the
   perspective of Robert Blackwill and count on a few stooges, they will
   suffer defeat and humiliation. If America truly wants to avoid a strategic
   defeat in Afghanistan, its only way is to ignore such futile proposals and
   reg ard Afghans as an independent and proud nation and respect their
   opinions, values and national sovereignty.(Description of Source: Kabul
   Weesa in Pashto -- pro-government daily launched in early 2006; supports
   reconciliation with the Taliban and Hekmatyar's groups.)

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   75) Back to Top
   Xinhua 'Commentary': History, Practicality Reunite Colombia, Venezuela
   Xinhua "Commentary": "History, Practicality Reunite Colombia, Venezuela" -
   Xinhua
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 12:08:54 GMT
   BEIJING, Aug. 11 (Xinhua) -- Colombia President Juan Manuel Santos an d
   his Venezuelan counterpart Hugo Chavez agreed Tuesday to reestablish
   diplomatic relations after a long meeting in Santa Marta, a city on
   Colombia's Caribbean coast.

   What impressed the world was not only the two leaders walking shoulder to
   shoulder at a colonial-era residence where South American independence
   hero Simon Bolivar died in 1830, but also their description of bilateral
   relations as "brotherly countries."From a rupture on July 22 to the
   restoration, the dramatic change in bilateral relations in merely 19 days
   spoke of a truth -- the two Andean countries are neighbors after all.
   Neighbors that share a deep historical and cultural origin, a long
   friendship and substantial common interests. Bitter disagreements and
   outside influence will not leave the two countries in a tense spot for
   long.The mere choice of Santa Marta as the venue for the presidential
   meeting carried symbolic meaning. Both countries became Spanish colonies
   in the 16th century and have had similar experiences in fighting against
   colonial rule and striving for independence.Chavez, who regards Bolivar as
   the inspiration of his socialist movement, said it was appropriate to mend
   fences at such a sacred place. During their meeting, both leaders quoted
   Bolivar several times as their inspiration, an reflection of the historic
   and cultural bonds between the neighbors.Bitter disagreements over the
   status of the rebel Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia and relations
   with the United States have separated the two countries in recent
   years.Bogota's claim at the Organization of American States last month
   that its rebel militants were hiding in Venezuelan territory became the
   last straw. Venezuela severed ties with its neighbor and beefed up its
   military at the border in retaliation.But it is a fact that the once close
   economic and trade activities between Colombia and Venezuela plummeted
   from 7 billion U.S. dollars to 700 million dollars last year amid fears o
   f a potential war.Considering the challenges of shoring up their economies
   in the wake of the global financial crisis, the countries' break-up was
   set to lead to loss-loss. Practical economic calculations and substantial
   interest for people on the border finally took the upper hand in the
   dispute.Santos told reporters after the meeting that the rapprochement
   between two men with "so many and such frequent differences decide to turn
   the page and think of the future ... That's something I think we have to
   celebrate."Chavez said he doesn't support the Colombian rebels or any
   other insurgent group, adding that the neighboring countries are starting
   down a new road after years of often thorny ties under Santos'
   predecessor.In Latin America, behind diplomatic rows often lies the shadow
   of major powers. Different relations with the major powers, sometimes,
   become a factor leading to a diplomatic crisis between two countries. It
   is undeniable that the influence of major co untries would not go away
   with the rapprochement between Venezuela and Colombia.However, reducing
   outside influences and ironing out diplomatic feuds in the interests of
   two neighbors are the highlight of their reconciliation, and will be an
   important revelation for developing neighborly relations in the
   future.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's
   official news service for English-language audiences (New China News
   Agency))

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   76) Back to Top
   Boeing Presumed Victor in Presidential Plane Bid - JoongAng Daily Online
   Thursday August 12, 2010 01:10:01 GMT
   (JOONGANG ILBO) - Boeing Co. of the United States will likely win a
   contract to build Korea's new presidential jet as its archrival EADS, the
   European parent of Airbus, decided not to submit a bid, informed sources
   said yesterday.

   Korea plans to buy a presidential jet by 2014 to replace its presidential
   plane put into service in 1985.President Lee Myung-bak (Yi Myo'ng-pak) is
   using a Boeing 747-400 jet for overseas trips under a five-year lease
   contract with Korean Air ahead of the planned purchase.However, the plane
   is outdated, and only a few passengers could board the plane.The Defense
   Acquisition Program Administration, Korea's weapons procurement agency in
   charge of the presidential jet project, is reopening a tender that failed
   on Aug. 3 because it attracted only one bidder, Boeing.But EADS would not
   submit a bid by the Monday deadline for the second-round tender, a
   well-informed military source said, clearing the way for a potential
   Boeing win." ;EADS decided not to submit a bid for the presidential plane
   contract because it sees little chance of winning," the source said on
   condition of anonymity."It seems that EADS pulled out because the cost in
   the bidding is huge and the company's image could be tarnished if it fails
   to win."An official at the Seoul office of EADS declined to comment on the
   matter.With the exit of EADS, the DAPA will review the sole bid by Boeing
   and complete price negotiations by October."If all things go smoothly,
   Boeing will be able to sign a formal contract for the new presidential
   plane in December," said another source at the DAPA.A DAPA official said
   the agency is planning to purchase a plane with about 300 seats.The most
   likely candidate for the new presidential plane is expected to be the
   Boeing 787 Dreamliner. The price on the plane could exceed 300 billion won
   ($254 million), considering that it will have several options added
   exclusively to protect the presid ent including missile evasion systems
   and the latest communication systems. A Boeing 787 Dreamliner typically
   has between 250 and 290 seats.(Description of Source: Seoul JoongAng Daily
   Online in English -- Website of English-language daily which provides
   English-language summaries and full-texts of items published by the major
   center-right daily JoongAng Ilbo, as well as unique reportage; distributed
   as an insert to the Seoul edition of the International Herald Tribune;
   URL: http://joongangdaily.joins.com)

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   77) Back to Top
   Fidel Castro Warns World of US Nuclear War Threat
   KCNA headline: "Fidel Castro Warns World of U.S. Nuclear War Threat&amp;quo t;
   - KCNA
   Thursday August 12, 2010 03:51:28 GMT
   addressing a session of the National Assembly of People's Power of Cuba on
   August 7, warned the world of the U.S. nuclear war threat.

   He said that if the U.S. attacks Iran and the DPRK, it will spark off
   armed conflicts in the Far East, the Near East and the whole Eurasian
   continent simultaneously.In that case a nuclear war will break out
   worldwide, he said, stressing the need to urgently defuse such
   threat.(Description of Source: Pyongyang KCNA in English -- Official DPRK
   news agency. URL: http://www.kcna.co.jp)

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   78) Back to Top
   Restored Venezuela-Colombia ties top story on Iran's Press TV - Press TV
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 09:04:44 GMT
   The top stories on Iran's state-run English-language news channel Press TV
   at 0400, 0500 and 0600 gmt on 11 August were the re-establishment of
   diplomatic ties between Venezuela and Colombia, Pentagon's rejection of
   Afghan leader Karzai's call foreign security firms to be shut down, US
   Middle East Envoy George Mitchell's talks with the Palestinian Authority
   president, a deadly landslide in China and floods in Europe.Commenting on
   the re-established Venezuela-Colombia ties, Gregory Wilpert, captioned as
   a Latin America expert from New York, said over the phone that there were
   "strong economic reasons" why Colombia wanted to improve relations with
   Venezuela. A Press TV correspondent added that "it is yet to be seen what
   concrete measures Col ombia and Venezuela are going to take when it comes
   to the sensitive issue of US military bases and the alleged presence of
   Colombian rebels on Venezuelan soil".Press TV said Pentagon had "played
   down Afghan President Karzai's call for foreign private security firms
   operating in his country to be shut down". It quoted "a Pentagon
   spokesman" as saying that "Washington acknowledges that there are problems
   with the firms but he (spokesman) adds that the US is working on
   addressing the issue raised by Karzai".Press TV said US Middle East envoy
   George Mitchell's talks in the West Bank with the Palestinian Authority
   president had ended without any agreement on direct talks between Israel
   and the Palestinian Authority. The TV said a rally had been staged by
   activists from Al-Mubadara Party in Ramallah to urge the Palestinian
   Authority not to resume direct talks with Israel. It added that the public
   in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip "strongl y opposes switching to direct
   talks". The TV interviewed Mustafa Barghoutl from Al-Mubadara Party who
   said that Israel was the only party to benefit from the direct
   negotiations "while settlements continue to grow".Press TV said rescue
   operations are continuing in China to find survivors after the weekend
   mudslide that killed over 700 people. Press TV also reported that 11
   people had been killed in floods that had hit Germany, Poland and the
   Czech Republic.(Description of Source: Tehran Press TV in English --
   24-hour English-language news channel of Iranian state-run television,
   officially controlled by the office of the supreme leader)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   79) Back to Top
   Slovak Press 11 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from the Slovak press on 11 August. To
   request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735;
   or fax (703) 613-5735. - Slovakia -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 17:09:51 GMT
   http://www.sme.sk/ http://www.sme.sk

   1. Sme website carries "full transcript" of Prime Minister Radicova's 10
   Aug address delivered in Assembly ahead of vote on government's policy
   statement. (3,170 words; some points covered by EUP20100810172011,
   EUP20100811172002)

   2. Zuzana Petkova, Silvia Pnackova report with further details on nearly
   finished 4-million-euro refurbishment of villa in lucrative part of
   Bratislava, allegedly planned to become "luxurious" residence of prime
   minister under Fico government; Fico again denies knowing about the works,
   even though former Government Office head, Igor Federic, negotiated on
   villa's possible use for prime minister during Fico's tenure. (900 words)

   3. Report says choice of locations where Army members can spend holiday at
   costs largely covered by Defense Ministry remains restricted, since 2009,
   to facilities in Slovakia, while 20-25 servicemen can annually spend
   holiday in Hungary, Austria, or Czech Republic within exchange programs.
   (370 words)

   4. Commentary by Abel Ravasz, chief analyst with Publicus Slovensko survey
   agency, views factors behind rise of Hungary's extreme Jobbik party, warns
   against similar rise of far-right Our Slovakia People's Party (LSNS). (780
   words)

   Bratislava

   mailto:Pravd@.sk Pravd@.sk in Slovak -- Website of high-circulation,
   influential center-left daily; URL:

   http://www.pravda.sk/ http://www.pravda.sk

   1. Vanda Vavrova report on opposition leader Fico's criticism, allegations
   addressed to Defense Minister Galko in connection with his app ointment of
   Milan Hudec to post of Military Intelligence Service chief, Hudec's
   suspension owing to problem with security clearance. (580 words;
   processing)

   2. Commentary by Vanda Vavrova on above affair over Hudec security
   clearance says it illustrates "long-existent" problems of Slovakia's
   intelligence services. (310 words; processing)

   Bratislava Hnonline.sk in Slovak -- Website of leading independent
   political and economic daily; owned by the publisher of Czech Hospodarske
   Noviny and often reprints its articles; paper of record; URL:

   http://www.hnonline.sk/ http://www.hnonline.sk

   1. Report says Defense Ministry suspends implementation of 60-million-euro
   contract with BAE Systems on supply of MOKYS mobile communications system
   for Slovak Army owing to discovery of "certain irregularities concerning
   quality of supplied radio technology;" Ministry to decide on further steps
   after testing the technology in Aug. (180 words)
   Bratislava Plus 7 Dni Online in Slovak -- Website of best-selling glossy
   weekly covering political, economic, and social issues; somewhat
   sensationalist; regularly publishes investigative stories on political
   corruption; URL:

   http://www.plus7dni.sk/plus7dni http://www.plus7dni.sk/plus7dni

   No. 32 (5-11 Aug)

   1. Lukas Milan report on Direction-led Defense Ministry's signing, shortly
   before 12 Jun parliamentary election, two contracts, worth 57 million
   euros in total, on modernization of Army's Russian-made Mi-17 transport
   helicopters that are approaching end of their service life. (1,770 words;
   processing)

   2. Interview with Richard Sulik, Assembly Speaker and SaS chairman, on
   causes and settlement of dispute between SaS and Ordinary People faction;
   SaS's taking the faction on its election ticket; his decision to become
   Assembly Speaker despite "dreaming" of finance minister post; his adapting
   to more formal dressing style in his new post; government's policy
   statement; SaS's contribution bonus scheme; his plan to reduce number of
   MPs' official trips abroad; coalition's plan to abolish so-called Meciar
   amnesties; SaS-initiated refer endum on MPs' immunity from prosecution.
   (3,000 words)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   80) Back to Top
   NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 119 -- TOPIC OF THE WEEK (1 of 6)
   Yonhap headline: "NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 119 (August 12, 2010)" -
   Yonhap
   Thursday August 12, 2010 02:14:40 GMT
   M

   81) Back to Top
   Cross-Strait News 11 August 2010 - Taiwan -- OSC Summary
   Thursday August 12, 2010 00:36:40 GMT
   -- According to this Chung-shih Tien-tzu Pao unattributed roundup report,
   the Cross-Strait Peace and Prosperity Forum, organized by Want Daily to
   mark the newspaper's first anniversary, opened in Taipei on 11 August. The
   report claims that Kuomintang (KMT) Honorary Chairman Lien Chan and Li
   Yafei, vice chairman of China's Association for Relations Across the
   Taiwan Strait (ARATS), attended the opening ceremony. According to the
   report, Tsai Eng Meng, chairman of the Want Want Group, said at the
   ceremony that peace in the Strait is a prerequisite for creating wealth
   and that the ECFA will bring Taiwan more business opportunities. The
   report claims that the forum is the first high-level economic forum held
   between the two sides since the signing of the ECFA.

   http://news.ch
   inatimes.com/mainland/0,5245,50504472x132010081100754,00.html
   http://news.chinatimes.com/mainland/0,5245,50504472x132010081100754,00.html
   "Li Yafei Goes to Taiwan, Seeks Cross-Strait Mutual Trust"

   -- According to this Chung-yang T'ung-hsun-she (Central News Agency, CNA)
   special report by Liu Cheng-ch'ing, after ARATS Chairman Chen Yunlin said
   in Australia a few days ago that the "1992 consensus" was a cross-Strait
   common political basis, ARATS Vice Chairman Li Yafei, who is in Taiwan to
   attend the Cross-Strait Peace and Prosperity Forum, also talked about the
   "1992 consensus" at the forum and when he met with Strait Exchange
   Foundation (SEF) Vice Chairman Kao Koon-lian. The report claims that
   mainland affairs analysts believed Chen and Li's move showed that
   Beijing's intention was to accumulate mutual trust. According to the
   analysts, putting aside disputes is the essence of the "1992 consensus,"
   and therefore the two sides can use the consensus to create room for
   ambiguity and to move forward. The report also claims that Li said on 11
   August that the "1992 consensus" was that the two sides could orally have
   separate interpretations of the "one-China" principle that both sides
   uphold. However, according to the report, Li did not clearly state that
   the "1992 consensus" was "one China, with each side having its own
   interpretation," which President Ma Ying-jeou has reiterated recently.

   http://www.cna.com.tw/ShowNews/Detail.aspx?pNewsID=201008110300&amp;amp;pType1=PD&amp;amp;pType0=aIPL&amp;amp;pTypeSel=&amp;amp;pPNo=1
   http://www.cna.com.tw/ShowNews/Detail.aspx?pNewsID=201008110300&amp;amp;pType1=PD&amp;amp;pType0=aIPL&amp;amp;pTypeSel=&amp;amp;pPNo=1
   "Chang Jung-kung Says Two Sides Can Seek Common Ground While Reserving
   Differences Under '1992 Consensus'"

   -- According to this CNA report by Li Shu-hua, KMT Deputy Secretary
   General Chang Ju ng-kung said on 11 August that China has focused on
   interpreting the "1992 consensus" as the "one-China principle" and that
   Taiwan has focused on the "one China, with each side having its own
   interpretation." He said although the two sides viewed the consensus
   differently, the important thing was to seek common ground while reserving
   differences. Commenting on ARATS Vice Chairman Li Yafei's remark on the
   "1992 consensus," Chang said Li's remark basically was in line with the
   fact. Chang also admitted that the mainland side has never acknowledged
   publicly the principle of "one China, with each side having its own
   interpretation." However, according to Chang, the important thing was that
   the two sides have constantly engaged in consultations and have put aside
   disputes, and this proved that the "1992 consensus" has been carried out
   effectively.

   http://www.cna.com.tw/ShowNews/Detail.aspx?pNewsID=201008110271&amp;
   ;amp;pType1=PD&amp;amp;pType0=aIPL&amp;amp;pTypeSel=&amp;amp;pPNo=1
   http://www.cna.com.tw/ShowNews/Detail.aspx?pNewsID=201008110271&amp;amp;pType1=PD&amp;amp;pType0=aIPL&amp;amp;pTypeSel=&amp;amp;pPNo=1
   "Li Yafei Talks About '1992 Consensus,' Makes Consistent Statement"

   -- According to this CNA special report by Huang Chi-k'uan, the statement
   made by ARATS Vice Chairman Li Yafei on 11 August in Taipei on the "1992
   consensus" was the same as what China has always stated on the issue in
   the past. The report claims that it is worth noting whether the mainland
   side would accept the development of the "1992 consensus" into the "one
   China, with each side having its own interpretation" in the international
   community. According to the report, Beijing's advocating of the "one-China
   principle" in the international community does not mean that it is ready
   to talk about the "one China, with each side having its own interpreta
   tion," because China does not want it to develop into a "two China"
   principle. The report also calls on the public to pay attention to the
   issue that if China withdraws its missiles aimed at Taiwan under the "one
   China" principle, would it demand that the United States stop selling arms
   to Taiwan to observe the Joint Communique on arms sales to Taiwan signed
   between China and the United States on 17 August 1982.

   http://www.cna.com.tw/ShowNews/Detail.aspx?pNewsID=201008110301&amp;amp;pType1=PM&amp;amp;pType0=aCN&amp;amp;pTypeSel=&amp;amp;pPNo=1
   http://www.cna.com.tw/ShowNews/Detail.aspx?pNewsID=201008110301&amp;amp;pType1=PM&amp;amp;pType0=aCN&amp;amp;pTypeSel=&amp;amp;pPNo=1

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   82) Back to Top
   NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 119 -- TOPIC OF THE WEEK (2 of 6)
   Yonhap headline: "NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 119 (August 12, 2010)" -
   Yonhap
   Thursday August 12, 2010 02:20:43 GMT
   SEOUL (Yonhap) -- Raising already high tensions, North Korea seized a
   South Korean fishing boat that was operating in the East Sea near the
   North's territorial waters, the Unification Ministry said on Aug. 8.Four
   South Korean and three Chinese crew members were on board when a North
   Korean patrol boat apparently towed it to the northeastern port of
   Songjin. North Korea has yet to offer any word on the state of the
   crew.The incident came amid deadlocked inter-Korean relations. South Korea
   and the U.S. recently held massive naval drills south of the East Sea
   border between the Koreas, after they accused Pyongyang of sinking a Sou
   th Korean warship in the West Sea in March, killing 46 sailors.The 41-ton
   squid fishing boat, Daeseung 55, was apprehended on Aug. 8 from waters
   presumed to be within the North's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the
   East Sea.One of the crew members told the South's Coast Guard via a
   satellite phone that the vessel was seized by a North Korean patrol
   boat.The captain of the boat reported "normal conditions" around 6:30 p.m.
   on Aug. 7 when contacted by South Korean maritime authorities via regular
   radio contact."But we lost the signal around 5:30 a.m. on Aug. 8 and later
   confirmed via satellite that the boat was being towed by a North Korean
   patrol boat heading to North Korea's northeastern port of Songjin," a
   Coast Guard official said.The ship, which sailed from the port of Pohang,
   North Gyeongsang Province, on Aug. 1, was expected to return around Sept.
   10, the official said.The Coast Guard said it was investigating whether
   the boat trespassed into the No rth's exclusive economic zone and called
   for the prompt release of the crew in line with international law and
   customs."It has been found that the Daeseung crew is being investigated by
   North Korean authorities," a coast guard official said.The boat had been
   operating in a joint fishing area off the North's eastern area of
   Musudan-ri before it was seized, a defense source in Seoul said.A
   unification ministry spokesman said it appears that the North Korean
   authorities are questioning the seven crew members.North Korea has offered
   no word yet on the seized fishing boat, the Unification Ministry said on
   Aug. 9."So far, there has been no notification from the North Korean side
   regarding this incident," ministry spokesman Chun Hae-sung told
   reporters.South Korea has urged the North to release the boat as early as
   possible. "The government has urged the North to deal quickly with the
   case and release our crew members and their boat in accordance with inter
   national law and practices," Chun said.Chun also said it is still unclear
   exactly where the fishing boat was seized, including whether it was inside
   the North's EEZ as presumed. The government and the Coast Guard are trying
   to confirm details of the seizure, he said.Identifying whether the 41-ton
   Daeseung trespassed into North Korea's waters is key to determining how
   South Korea will deal with the seizure, spokesman Chun told
   reporters."We're going to determine what our next steps will be, based on
   the investigation," Chun said, adding he is not aware of any contact
   between China and South Korea over the seizure.As there was no response
   from the North, South Korea's Red Cross sent a message to the North on
   Aug. 11 urging the prompt release of the crew.North Korea accepted the
   message delivered through a western military hotline between the two
   countries at 10 a.m., Unification Ministry spokeswoman Lee Jong-joo said
   in a briefing.The message, addressed to the N orth's top Red Cross
   official, contains a call by his South Korean counterpart to free the
   seven crew members of the Daeseung "promptly in line with international
   law and customs and on humanitarian grounds," Lee said."We have also asked
   the North to explain in detail how the fishin g boat was seized," Lee
   said, adding the Red Cross channel is often used in inter-Korean issues
   involving civilian boats.The seizure came amid high tensions between the
   two Koreas in the wake of the deadly March sinking of the South Korean
   warship Ch'o'nan (Cheonan) near their western sea border.Following the
   joint South Korea-U.S. military drills in the East Sea in July, South
   Korea conducted its own massive naval exercises for five days from Aug. 5
   designed as a show of force and a warning against further North Korean
   provocations.On Aug. 9, North Korea fired more than 100 rounds of
   artillery along the Yellow Sea border near the area where South Korea had
   just ended the nava l drills that mobilized some 4,500 troops.In July of
   last year, a South Korean fishing boat, the Yeonan, accidentally crossed
   into North Korea's waters and was towed to a nearby port. The boat was
   released about a month later.(Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in
   English -- Semiofficial news agency of the ROK; URL:
   http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   83) Back to Top
   Opponents of NATO MD Early Warning Center Protest Outside Czech Parliament
   "Protest Meetings Staged Outside Czech Chamber of Deputies" -- Czech
   Happenings headline - Czech Happenings
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 08:23:04 GMT
   The protests, monitored by policemen, were calm and no incidents occurred.

   Some 30 activists from the No Bases group with banners protested against
   the planned establishment of an early warning centre of the U.S. missile
   defence system in the Czech Republic planned within the NATO missile
   defence. The centre is to start working in mid-2011.

   Its opponents are collecting signatures and they have announced a
   demonstration to be held on Wenceslas Square in Prague centre on September
   4.

   No Bases staged many protest rallies in the past against the planned
   project of a U.S. missile defence radar base on Czech soil that the U.S.
   administration scrapped in the end.

   About ten people from the ProAlt group criticising the government-planned
   reforms and budget cuts met outside the lower house. The ProAlt statement
   has been signed by some 100 people so far.

   Moreover, seven women protested outside the Chamber of Deputie s against
   the absence of women in the coalition cabinet of Petr Necas (Civic
   Democrats, ODS) of the ODS, TOP 09 and Public Affairs (VV).

   They carried banners reading "Government without women - the first of the
   new government's reforms" and "Government without women is illegitimate."

   (Description of Source: Prague Czech Happenings in English -- Internet
   magazine with focus on political and economic reporting, published by CTK
   subsidiary Neris; URL: http://www.ceskenoviny.cz)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   84) Back to Top
   Hyundai Heavy to Build Giant Solar Power Plant - JoongAng Daily Online
   Thursday August 12, 2010 00:36:49 GMT
   (JOONGANG ILBO) - Hyundai Heavy Industries said yesterday it had signed a
   $700 million deal with U.S.-based Matinee Energy on Monday to build the
   world's largest solar energy power plant.

   The plant, which will be located in Arizona, is seen as a breakthrough in
   Korea's ambitions to become a leading global supplier of green energy
   technology. Hyundai Heavy Industries, the nation's largest shipbuilder,
   claims it is the only company in Korea to produce a complete line of solar
   power equipment, including polycrystalline silicon, solar batteries,
   modules and solar power systems.Hyundai will build two facilities: a
   150-megawatt solar energy power plant in Dragoon, Arizona, and a smaller
   25-megawatt unit in nearby Cochise, both of which are located in the
   southeastern part of the state. Hyundai will be responsible for the
   engineering, procurement and construction of the plants. The solar energy
   module, a core part of the plant, will be produced at Hyundai's facility
   in Eumseong, North Chungcheong."The deal will establish Hyundai as an
   international supplier of large-scale solar energy power plants," said Kim
   Kweon-tae. "We will do our best to win additional orders of large plants
   in the United States, as well as in Europe and Asia."The project
   represents the first phase of a 900-megawatt solar energy project that
   will be located at 15 sites in California and Arizona, for which Hyundai
   Heavy Industries had been in negotiations since March. Hyundai won the
   order against competitors in Germany and China, which are leaders in the
   global solar energy industry. Hyundai is expected to get follow-on orders
   from Matinee Energy for the project.Meanwhile, Hyundai Heavy Industries
   also announced yesterday that it acquired management control of Hyundai
   Oilbank from the Abu Dhabi-based International Petroleum Investment Co.
   after a prolonged court battle. The dispute had centered on whether
   Hyundai had first rights to buy back a 70 percent stake in Oilbank that
   was being sold by IPIC. IPIC agreed to sell the shares to Hyundai after
   the International Chamber of Commerce recently ruled in favor of the
   Korean company.(Description of Source: Seoul JoongAng Daily Online in
   English -- Website of English-language daily which provides
   English-language summaries and full-texts of items published by the major
   center-right daily JoongAng Ilbo, as well as unique reportage; distributed
   as an insert to the Seoul edition of the International Herald Tribune;
   URL: http://joongangdaily.joins.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   85) Back to Top
   CIA Arrests Youth Suspected of Planning To Blow up PIA Airplane
   "Swat Resident Who Threatened To Blow up Airplane Arrested"  NNI headline
   - Nawa-e Waqt
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 13:47:16 GMT
   an airplane of Pakistan International Airlines (PIA), bound from London to
   Lahore. It has been said that a youth named Asad Iqbal had earlier
   threatened the PIA through a fake telephone call that the flight from
   London to Lahore would be blown up. Iqbal had threatened to blow up the
   PIA airplane many times earlier as well.

   Deputy Superintendent of Police Mian Azhar Farooq said that the suspect
   was undergoing investigation and that more information was expected.

   (Description of Source: Rawalpindi Nawa-e Waqt in Urdu -- Privately owned,
   widely read, conservative Islamic daily, with circulation around 125,000.
   Harshly critical of the US and India.)

   Material in the World News Connectio n is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   86) Back to Top
   US To Send 'Supercarrier' to Yellow Sea for Joint Drills With ROK
   Updated version: Upgrading precedence, adjusting tags, adding ref item;
   Yonhap headline: "U.S. to Send Supercarrier to Yellow Sea For Joint Drills
   With S. Korea: Adm. Mullen" by Hwang Doo-hyong - Yonhap
   Thursday August 12, 2010 00:45:47 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright ho
   lder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   87) Back to Top
   RMRB Column Urges Calmness, Restraint Over Choenan Incident
   Article by Chen Xiangyang, "Calmness and Restraint Are Required More Than
   Ever" -- from the "International Forum" column - Renmin Ribao Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 22:36:29 GMT
   The ROK has declared that the purpose of the military exercises is to step
   up the effort to deter the DPRK and prevent recurrence of incidents
   similar to the Ch'o'nan (Cheonan) incident. In fact, however, questions
   have been voiced in the ROK since its military and civilian joint
   investigation group revealed at a briefing on 20 May that the Ch'o'nan
   disaster was caused by torpedo attacks from a small submarine of the DPRK.
   In late June, the investigation group admitted errors in the drawing of
   the DPRK torpedo revealed at the briefing. Public opinions in the ROK
   believe that if the Ch'o'nan incident becomes another unsolved mystery, it
   will not only deal a heavy blow to the ROK government but also damage the
   ROK's national creditability.

   Hence, the ROK government vigorously lobbied the international community
   in a bid to solicit its "unanimous acceptance" of the investigation
   result. However, in an interview with US newspapers on 18 June, Russian
   President Medvedev said: It is only one of the possibilities that the
   attack from the neighboring country (DPRK) was the cause of the sinking of
   the Ch'o'nan. On 9 July, the UN Security Council adopted a chairman's
   statement on the Ch'o'nan incident, condemning the attack that caused the
   sinking of Ch'o'nan but did not clearly indicate that the attack was
   committed by the DPRK.

   On 20 July, the ROK and the United States finalized the d ates of the
   joint military exercises. Furthermore, Washington announced new sanctions
   against the DPRK, including the freeze of its assets, in order to prevent
   the DPRK from carrying out "nuclear proliferation and other illegal
   activities." According to analyses by some ROK media, the ROK and US
   governments are very dissatisfied with the UN Security Council chairman's
   statement and, therefore, want to use joint military exercises to increase
   the creditability of the investigation result on the Ch'o'nan incident
   and, at the same time, take the opportunity to force the DPRK to abandon
   its nuclear program. In the event that the DPRK can no longer stand the
   heavy pressure and picks up the "marginal tactics" again, then the ROK and
   the United States can push the Security Council to adopt a new resolution
   on sanctions against the DPRK.

   Experts on East Asian defense affairs maintain that although ROK-US
   military exercises can help the ROK government distr act outsiders'
   attention from the Ch'o'nan incident, the exercises will escalate the
   tense and complicated situation on the Korea Peninsula and affect the
   security situation in Northeast Asia. On 31 July, KCNA condemned the
   ROK-US military exercises as the "prelude" to an attempt to start the
   second Korean War and to push the Peninsula toward an "explosive,
   dangerous situation." Some ROK analysts also point out: The large-scale
   ROK-US military exercises are conducive to strengthening ROK-US alliance,
   but they can also constrict the ROK's room for diplomatic maneuver.

   As far as the ROK government is concerned, proper handling of the Ch'o'nan
   incident and its aftermath affects the foundation of its governance. After
   assuming the presidential office, Lee Myung-bak discarded his two
   predecessors' "sunshine policy" toward the DPRK, saying that the policy
   had not only failed to dissuade the DPRK from abandoning its nuclear
   program but also put the ROK in a passive position in relations to the
   DPRK and weakened ROK-US alliance. Therefore, Lee Myung-bak decided to
   demand the DPRK to give up its nuclear program and open up as the
   precondition for the ROK's massive economic aid to the DPRK. Meanwh ile,
   the Lee Myung-bak government focused his administration on developing the
   economy. The ROK economy's good performance in recent years has won the
   government high approval rate from the people.

   However, in the wake of the Ch'o'nan incident, the security issue has
   replaced the economy as the top priority task of the administration of the
   ROK government, which has since taken a tougher policy toward the DPRK. On
   24 May, the ROK government announced a ban on DPRK ships to enter ROK
   waters and suspended ROK-DPRK trade and other exchanges. Immediately
   after, the DPRK announced comprehensive freeze of DPRK-ROK relations and
   abrogated the DPRK-ROK non-aggression agreement. On 2 June, in the ROK
   national election and loca l elections, the ruling Grand National Party
   suffered a setback, indicating public misgivings about the possibility of
   war caused by the tough policy toward the DPRK. Even though the Grand
   National Party won victory in the 28 July reelections and supplementary
   elections of National Assembly members and the government has taken charge
   of the political situation once again, if the ROK-US military exercises
   further aggravate the security situation on the Peninsula and the region,
   the ROK government is likely to receive a still lower approval rate from
   the people.

   (Description of Source: Beijing Renmin Ribao Online in Chinese -- Online
   version of the daily newspaper (People's Daily) of the CPC Central
   Committee. URL: http://paper.people.com.cn)Attachments:rmrb0804rok.pdf

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, U S Dept. of
   Commerce.

   88) Back to Top
   US Lawmaker Seeks Resolution For Release of ROK Fishermen Held in DPRK
   By Hwang Doo-hyong: "U.S. Lawmaker Seeks Resolution For Release of S.
   Korean Fishermen Held in N. Korea" - Yonhap
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 21:28:34 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   89) Back to Top
   US Lawmaker Seeks Resolution For Release of ROK Fishermen Held in DPRK
   Updated version: upgrading precedence and adding refs; By Hwang Doo-hyong:
   "U.S. Lawmaker Seeks Resolution For Release of S. Korean Fishermen Held in
   N. Korea" - Yonhap
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 21:31:36 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   90) Back to Top
   Yemeni Opposition TV CEO Interviewed on Al-Qa'ida, Huthists, Invasion of
   South
   Interview with Nasir al-Ja'fari, chief executive officer, CEO, of Aden
   Live Yemeni TV channel, by Iyad al-Dulaymi; place and date not given:
   "There Is No Unity Until We Call for Separation; and the South Issue Has
   Nothing to Do With Huthists and Al-Qa'ida" - Al-Arab Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 15:32:37 GMT
   Al-Ja'fari stated that "the cause of the southern populace bears no
   relation to Al-Qa'ida or the Huthists," and that "the Sanaa regime is
   always trying to link us to them, even though we are on parallel lines
   which cannot meet." He spoke about the channel's funding sources,
   clarifying that most of its workers are volunteers, in addition to some
   contributions from the sons of southern Yemen.

   The text of the interview is as follows:

   (Al-Dulaymi) First, can you tell us about the channel and the conditions
   under which it was established?

   (Al-Ja'fari) I would first like to thank Al-Arab newspaper for having me,
   its concern for the southern (Yemen) issue, and its pursuit of truth.
   Regarding the channel and its establishment, as you know, the southern
   cause must be accompanied by a media outlet, which may help to reveal many
   of the facts practiced by the Sanaa regime against the unarmed southern
   people. There is a mass media blackout imposed by the Sanaa regime, which,
   after its invasion war with the South, strove to hold many agreements with
   Arab media outlets and exert many pressures upon southern activists in
   Arab states. There are many accords into which we do not want to enter.
   This has made us lack the financial resources that were present abroad.
   Here we find the opportunity to address the highnesses, kings, amirs, and
   presidents to aid the southern people, tend to their wounded, and help the
   southern martyrs who fell in cold blood from the bullets of the Sanaa
   regime's forces.

   Aden Live adopts the peaceful struggle, and tries, with its modest
   resources, to reveal some of the cri mes committed by the Sanaa regime
   against the southern people. These crimes take place in order to sow
   discord among southerners, despite the Southern Mobility Movement's (SMM)
   ongoing denouncement of the crimes of violence committed by the regime
   against its supporting southerners. The channel, in turn, quickly sheds
   light upon the incidents, revealing their true colors and showing them to
   the viewers.

   All of this is in addition to covering and broadcasting some southern
   activities, especially weekly activities, live in audio until we receive
   video footage, in addition to some interviews with SMM leaders directly by
   phone and interviews with the channel's correspondents internally. Here I
   take this opportunity to thank all employees of the Aden channel inside
   (Yemen) and overseas, since they are working as volunteers without pay.
   This is in addition to talk and journalism shows broadcast live from
   London.

   The channel was founded two years ago, and its firs t broadcast was via US
   Intelsat, through which it still broadcasts today. Its first broadcast was
   on 11 February 2009, and was internal (in the country). Most of our
   viewers were from the South in the country, and from many Gulf and Arab
   states. On 5 January 2010, the channel broadcast on Nilesat on Atlantic
   Bird 4 for 25 days, after which the Sanaa regime interfered and influenced
   an important figure, Nasr Taha Mustafa, CEO of the SABA news agency, to
   purchase -- with millions of dollars -- the same frequency on which we
   used to broadcast from the same company with which we had contracted. He
   then broadcast a channel called Yemeniyyah on our same frequency, later
   changing the channel's name to the Aden cha nnel in an attempt to mislead
   the Arab and southern viewers.

   We were then able to sign a contract with another company with the same
   satellite, Nilesat. We returned to broadcasting on the same satellite on
   27 May 2010, and we are still broadcasting, although t he Sanaa regime is
   trying to disable our broadcast or mislead the companies by saying that
   our channel promotes violence by taking some pictures and presenting them
   with untruthful interpretations in a vain attempt to convince them. Sadly,
   the Sanaa regime is one that uses the methods of deception, even against
   foreigners. If it is unsuccessful, it uses the southern population's money
   by drafting expensive, alluring contracts.

   (Al-Dulaymi) You are accused of calling for the separation of the South.
   Do you confirm that?

   (Al-Ja'fari) We do not call for separation, because there is no union in
   the first place, and what happened in 1990 was (merely) an attempt at a
   union, but it never succeeded, because one of the parties breached
   agreements and accords which were established for this attempted union.
   War was then declared on the South, and, therefore, they (the regime)
   invaded in the name of the union. We demand independence and the
   restoration of the souther n state by peaceful resistance. This is our
   option until we achieve our goals.

   (Al-Dulaymi) From the viewpoint of some, the channel's statement is a
   violent instigation. You call the Yemeni forces the occupation forces, and
   call the operations targeting them resistance operations, correct?

   (Al-Ja'fari) The Sanaa regime is trying to pin this charge on us in order
   to ruin our image. Our statement was peaceful, and we relate facts as they
   are. The one committing the violence and instigation is the Sanaa regime.
   As for calling the Yemeni forces the occupation force, the southern people
   are the ones who call them so, and we relay it in turn. Sometimes we say
   the forces of the Yemeni Arab Republic, and many times we call it the
   Sanaa regime. They are occupation forces who took the South using military
   force, imposed unity using force, baptized it with blood, and have as
   their motto "unity or death." They are the ones calling for violence and
   instiga ting the people to spit in our faces. As for describing operations
   which target them as resistance, this is untrue; because the SMM does not
   conduct military resistance operations, and they were not adopted by our
   people. Our people are raising the banner of peaceful resistance and
   struggle. The operations occurring against the army are executed by
   parties allied with the regime itself. They are the settlement of scores
   between security executives, and the regime is taking advantage of them,
   alternating between blaming the SMM and Al-Qa'ida in order to blackmail
   the world.

   (Al-Dulaymi) Do you classify yourselves as a resistance channel?

   (Al-Ja'fari) We are a channel that relates the facts as they are. We are
   on our people's side in their peaceful struggle. We resist violence and
   the imposition of faits accomplis.

   (Al-Dulaymi) Anyone listening to your media statements will see that you
   are in a raging war with the Yemeni regime in Sanaa.

   (Al-J a'fari) Yes, on a daily basis, the South offers martyr after martyr
   and scores of wounded, but sadly, the Arab media is deluded regarding the
   truth of the southern situation. We are puzzled by this ignorance of
   events. If an event is covered, it is covered in a very untrue manner, and
   this is due to the security embargo and interference in the
   correspondents' work by the Sanaa police system. In our role as
   journalists, we do not bear arms. Those who bear arms are the Sanaa
   regime's forces. The people who fire bullets are the officers of the Sanaa
   regime against an unarmed people who came out in peaceful protests to
   denounce the occupation and demand its departure. These people also sought
   the release of all prisoners from detention camps and an end to the
   ongoing military siege of the southern areas.

   (Al-Dulaymi) Who is fundin g your satellite channel?

   (Al-Ja'fari) As I said before, the channel's resources are very modest. We
   work as volunteers, and ther e are some charitable southerners who
   contribute from their own personal wealth. We did not get support from our
   southern merchants, because they respect the laws of the country in which
   they live. The Sanaa regime tried to establish these laws in many other
   Arab states as well.

   (Al-Dulaymi) What is your relationship with President Ali Salim al-Bid? Is
   Al-Bid truly a supporter of your channel?

   (Al-Ja'fari) President Ali Salim al-Bid is the legitimate president of the
   South. Our relationship with him is excellent, and our relationship with
   the southern administration is also excellent. We are a voice for all the
   southern people of all affiliations. President Ali Salim al-Bid supported
   our channel after leaving Oman; however, his financial resources did not
   allow him to continue his support. We take this opportunity to ask our
   brothers in the South and peace lovers to stand by this southern flame so
   that it may grow and continue to better present its peace ful message.

   (Al-Dulaymi) What obstacles prevent you from working in Yemen? Do you have
   any known correspondents there?

   (Al-Ja'fari) Of course we may not work inside when the Sanaa regime is
   driving us out. Many of the channel's correspondents have been arrested
   and tried on the charge of dealing with the Aden channel, and there are
   still many volunteer correspondents behind bars. Our correspondents are
   volunteers. Their love for their country turned them into correspondents,
   and we consider all the sons of the South as our correspondents, and
   always look for the true story and relay it, in turn, to the world.

   (Al-Dulaymi) As far as the media slant of the Aden channel is concerned,
   do you support the Huthists in their war? Do you support Al-Qa'ida in its
   operations?

   (Al-Ja'fari) Our southern cause has nothing to do with the Huthists, and
   we cannot be supporters of Al-Qa'ida. The Sanaa regime is always trying to
   link us to them, even though w e are on parallel lines which cannot meet.
   Al-Qa'ida is the product of the republican palace in Sanaa. The Yemeni
   regime is trying to delude the world that Al-Qa'ida exists in the South,
   while they are the ones who supported Al-Qa'ida in the 1994 war,
   describing us as atheists and blasphemers. A fatwa remains against us
   until now. As for the Huthists, Ali Abdallah Salih established and
   supported them, and asked for the Iranians to help them, in order to
   create a balance in Sa'dah, as he says, against the Salafist trend led by
   Shaykh Muqbil al-Wadi'i and the Yemeni Congregation for Reform. When the
   US raised the "Axis of Evil" slogan and considered Iran a part of this
   axis, Salih tried using this slogan and declared war against the Huthists
   in order to blackmail the world and use the Shiite trend, of which this
   regime is already part to scare the neighboring countries.

   (Al-Dulaymi) Do you believe that your channel can play a positive role in
   the Yemeni c risis?

   (Al-Ja'fari) With its modest resources, our channel is relaying the facts
   as they are, whether those taking place in the South, or those occurring
   elsewhere in Yemen. The others -- the international community and the
   media -- must learn from these facts so that everyone knows the truth of
   what is happening there and so they push the neighboring Arab states and
   regions and the international community to respond to the demands of the
   southern (Yemeni) people, who have chosen a peaceful struggle toward
   liberation. It is only a matter of time until the day when the southern
   people have their country back again, and the international community must
   be well informed that the southern people will not back away from its
   choice of liberation. This is what we in the Aden channel can feel through
   our presence in the South.

   (Al-Dulaymi) How do you assess the condition of the media inside Yemen?

   (Al-Ja'fari) Media in Yemen is guided. There is no me dia wit h
   professional, neutral standards. What happened to Al-Ayyam newspaper and
   its publishers reveals the truth about media present there. The Sanaa
   regime allures, and then intimidates to force them to not relay the truth
   in the South. Whomever opposes that is doomed to prison, trial, or the
   appropriation and closure of his newspaper. Day and night in the South, we
   see newspapers close, websites blocked, and correspondents and journalists
   still behind bars of the prisons of democracy echoed by the Sanaa regime.
   That is why most media outlets operating in Yemen dare not relay the truth
   as it occurs.

   (Description of Source: Doha Al-Arab Online in Arabic -- Website of
   independent, large-circulation pan-Arab daily with close ties to the
   ruling family; sometimes critical of government policies; URL:
   http://www.alarab.com.qa/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright ho
   lder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   91) Back to Top
   Taiwan Opinion 11 Aug 10 - Taiwan -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 14:05:28 GMT
   - According to an article in Chung-kuo Shih-pao by Li Yun-chieh, Open
   University professor, while visiting Washington, MAC (Mainland Affairs
   Council) Chairperson Lai Hsing-yuan on 4 August called on mainland China
   to scrap the law concerning using force against Taiwan. However, scrapping
   the anti-secession law would not be an easy thing for mainland China, the
   article says. On the one hand, it is a national law passed by the NPC
   (National People's Congress). On the other hand, Beijing would still have
   to provide for the situation of the DPP regaining power. Beijing's stance
   is clear. That is, economic an d trade negotiations remain the focus of
   cross-Strait exchanges, but it does not mean that political and military
   issues cannot be mentioned. In other words, although the condition for
   resolving the political issue is unripe, efforts should still be made to
   create the proper conditions. However, Taiwan is a democratic society, and
   the government's power is restricted by elections. Because the five
   municipality elections are to be held and the blue's electoral prospects
   are not promising, it is unlikely for the Ma Ying-jeou regime to hold
   political talks with mainland China. To resolve the cross-Strait political
   deadlock, Beijing should seriously consider giving new meaning to "one
   China," the article says. It should replace the "one China principle" with
   "one Chinese nationality" (yi ge zhong hua min zu), and based on that
   foundation, should squarely face the issue of the "ROC," the article says.
   (Taipei Chung-Kuo Shih-Pao (Internet Ve rsion-WWW) in Chinese -- Internet
   version of daily newspaper provides good coverage of political affairs,
   generally takes a pro-unification stance. Root URL as of filing time:

   http://www.chinatimes.com.tw/ http://www.chinatimes.com.tw ) "Tsai Ing-Wen
   Fails To Stop Split"

   - According to an article in Lien-ho Pao by a retired diplomat named Lu
   Yi-cheng, Yang Chiu-hsing has formally announced that he is quitting the
   DPP and running for Kaohsiung mayor as an independent candidate. In
   Tainan, Hsu Tien-tsai may follow Yang's example, and the DPP is facing a
   major split. On the eve of quitting the DPP, Yang Chiu-hsing finally told
   the truth. He said that the rise of mainland China is a fact, and it is
   imperative for the DPP to face cross-Strait interaction in a pragmatic
   manner. The DPP should also understand that the two sides of the Taiwan
   Strait are no longer in a hostile situation. Yang also expressed his
   support for the ECFA (economic cooperation framew ork agreement). If he
   was not determined to leave the party, he would not have used those words,
   the article says. DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen did a poor job in handling
   the situation, and since Yang has left the party, the DPP should have
   refrained from saying bad things about Yang; neither should it expel Yang.
   On the other hand, the KMT should also avoid trouble, the article says,
   and all the things should be withheld until the end of the elections.
   (Taipei Lien-ho Pao (Internet Version-WWW) in Chinese - Website of a
   leading daily newspaper which consistently favors pan-blue politicians and
   issues. Root URL as of filing time:

   http://www.udnnews.com.tw/ http://www.udnnews.com.tw ) "Formula of
   Interpreting One China Separately Does Not Work"

   - According to an article in Tzu-yu Shih-pao by the former director of
   Taiwan Hsin-sheng Pao, Lu Yi-ming, recently the tension between the United
   States and China hiked, and the Korean Peninsula and the South Ch ina Sea
   are the centers of the conflict. Beijing, in order to break out of
   US-Japanese containment, is forcing Taiwan to remain neutral and to accept
   the "one China principle." However, the United States also will not see
   its strategic interests being infringed. Against that background, Ma
   Ying-jeou's China-leaning stance will lead to an unstable situation, the
   article says. Now, even the formula of "one China, separately interpreted
   by each side of the Taiwan Strait" cannot work. For example, MAC
   Chairperson Lai Hsing-yuan recently was forced to return to Taiwan ahead
   of schedule because her call in the United State for China to scrap the
   anti-succession law was deemed by Beijing a move with ulterior motives. At
   an interim meeting of the KMT's 18th Plenary Session, Ma Ying-jeou omitted
   the sensitive issue of the missile withdrawal in his report. Moreover, the
   United States suspended its 2010 arms sale to Taiwan. All this has exposed
   the fact that the so- called improved cross-Strait relationship that the
   Ma regime is so proud of is actually nothing but self-dwarfing and
   surrender, according to the article. (Taipei Tzu-yu Shih-pao -- Internet
   version of widely read Taiwan daily which supports Democratic Progressive
   Party (DPP) position and often exhibits a pro-independence bias,
   especially in its editorial and other opinion pieces. Root URL as of
   filing time:

   http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/ http://www.libertytimes.com.tw )

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   92) Back to Top
   U.S. Dismisses Reports North Korea Asked For Envoy on U.S. Citizen's
   Release - Yonhap
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 20:4 5:19 GMT
   US citizen-NK detention

   U.S. dismisses reports North Korea asked for envoy on U.S. citizen's
   releaseBy Hwang Doo-hyongWASHINGTON, Aug. 11 (Yonhap) -- The United States
   Wednesday dismissed reports that North Korea has asked Washington to send
   an envoy to discuss the release of an American citizen held there for
   illegal entry."I'm not aware of such a request," State Department
   spokesman Philip Crowley told reporters.Crowley was discussing Aijalon
   Gomes, 30, of Boston, who was sentenced in May to eight years in a labor
   and reeducation camp and fined about US$700,000 for illegal entry on Jan.
   25.North Korea said last month that Gomes was hospitalized after an
   attempted suicide, and some reports said he was on a hunger strike.Gomes,
   who taught English in South Korea, is the fourth American held in the
   North since early last year.He reportedly sympathized with another
   American, Robert Park, 28, who was rele ased in February after crossing
   the Chinese border on Christmas Day to draw international attention to
   North Korea's poor human rights record.Two American journalists were set
   free last August, when former U.S. President Bill Clinton visited
   Pyongyang. The journalists were on a reporting tour covering North Korean
   defectors when they were caught in March 2009.North Korea in June
   threatened to increase punishment for Gomes under a wartime law, citing
   what it called a U.S. campaign to condemn North Korea for the sinking of
   the South Korean warship Ch'o'nan (Cheonan) that killed 46 sailors in the
   Yellow Sea in March.The U.N. Security Council condemned the attack that
   led to the sinking of the Ch'o'nan (Cheonan), but did not directly blame
   North Korea due to China's opposition.North Korea denies responsibility,
   dismissing the outcome of the international probe that blamed a torpedo
   fired by a North Korean mini-submarine.The U.S. has repeatedly urged the
   North to release Gomes on humanitarian grounds.Crowley said last week that
   Washington had directly contacted North Korea for the release of Gomes "on
   multiple occasions," but ruled out sending an envoy for his release at
   least for the time being, apparently due to the escalating tensions over
   the Ch'o'nan (Cheonan)'s sinking.(Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in
   English -- Semiofficial news agency of the ROK; URL:
   http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   93) Back to Top
   Tehran Commentary Argues West's Military Threat Against Iran 'Propaganda
   Bluff'
   Commentary by Hasan Roshvand: "Psychological Bluff Against Iran" - Javan
   Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 15:53:55 GMT
   Many people ask whether a military strike on Iran is certain and the West
   has reached a stage where it has no other alternative than to use its last
   trump card in this game, or is this yet another major bluff of the White
   House authorities to compensate for their loss of honor to some extent.
   Which incident has made the West so angry that it made such unacceptable
   remarks? It knows that its reaction and reflection will result in a
   serious situation for them.

   First, last year the US and European governments and all the hegemonic
   powers been hoping for a change in the Iranian situation. However, after
   the magnificent election was held and the incidents that followed were
   managed, they realized that they cannot compete with Iran. In order to
   achieve their goals, they resorted to all the available tools like
   information, media, and financial assistance for the sedition. However,
   the outcome of this assistance and the blatant activities against the
   internal affairs of Iran gained a negative response from the people's
   behavior and show of national power on 9 Dey (30 December) and 22 Bahman
   (11 February), as well as on other national and religious occasions. The
   harsh statements of Musavi and Karrubi could not bring the "American
   train" back on the "track" of the reformists against the Islamic
   Revolution. The open statements of the West in support of the sedition
   leaders also could not deviate the people from their sovereignty and
   values.

   Second, the West reduced all its soft and hard measures in dealing with
   Iran after the election. After the defeat in the election, it launched the
   wornout scenario of sanction, which has been used since the beginning of
   the Islamic Revolution as a measure to put the Islamic Republic on the
   back foot. They believed that the passing of successive resolutions and
   increasing the co mpanies and officials on the list of sanctions would be
   the most effective tools to contain and defeat Iran. They did not consider
   the UN Security Council resolution sufficient, and thought that
   complementing it with the resolutions of the US and the EU will certainly
   prove to be the last nail in the coffin of the wornout scenario of
   sanctions. They know very well that Iran has passed through such a phase
   many times and, whatever problems it encounters, will not impede the
   progress of Iran or compel it to retreat from demanding its rights.

   Third, the last action of the West's propaganda machinery against Islamic
   Iran was to beat the drum of war, and this was also through the regime
   that has lost two wars in the region during the last two years. What
   common sense will accept that the regime that has suffered great losses
   against the Hizballah of Lebanon and HAMAS, and that also in a small
   territory, can have the potential for a military clash with Iran? It is
   natur al that the public opinion in the country and regional and other
   countries also do not accept that the regime, whose weakness has been
   exposed now, will dare to confront Iran, which through its belief has
   changed the impossible into the possible. Therefore, the action of the
   Congress should be taken as a major psychological and propaganda bluff.
   The same applies to the lies of the "Zionist" regime, whose destruction
   and collapse we are witnessing every day in the region.

   However, why do the "Zionist" regime and the US authorities beat the war
   drums against Iran? Certainly there are a few r easons for this, but the
   most important reason can be explained as follows.

   First, covering up the intelligence defeat of the Americans during past
   few months, the arrest and punishment of Rigi, the American intelligence
   scandal in the Shahram Amiri case, the publication of more than 100,000
   documents on the Internet regarding the aggressive violation o f human
   rights by the US and British troops in Afghanistan, and hundreds of failed
   security and intelligence measures are the reasons that justify the use of
   warmongering language by the West against Iran. The authorities in the
   West, particularly the US and the "Zionist" regime, believe that, through
   a military action against Iran, they will deviate public opinion from the
   mess that they have created.

   Second, pinning hopes on domestic seditious leaders who are still being
   supported by the West and, if necessary, taking military action that can
   help the seditionists reach their unrealistic objectives, is another
   objective of this project. The remarks of the allies of the seditious
   leaders and their think-tank in London, along with those of White House
   authorities and the "Zionist" regime, and their utter joy at the
   statements and actions of the White House to pressurize Iran, points to
   this reality that the counterrevolutionary movement and fierc e enemies
   abroad have links with some perverse streams internally. Therefore, the
   lies of attacking Iran should be assessed accordingly.

   (Description of Source: Tehran Javan Online in Persian -- website of
   hardline conservative daily affiliated with the Islamic Revolution Guards
   Corps (IRGC); www.javannewspaper.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   94) Back to Top
   Article Discusses Report About Deposits of Minerals in Afghanistan
   Article by Arif Ayub: Minerals in Afghanistan - The Nation Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 11:41:23 GMT
   On June 17, 2010, the New York Times and the res t of the US media led
   prominent stories on US geologists having discovered vast deposits of
   iron, copper, gold, lithium and other minerals in Afghanistan worth an
   estimated one trillion dollars. For good measure, the Afghan government
   claimed that actually their resources were worth three trillion dollars.
   While these reports are absolutely true, they are equally meaningless.
   Firstly, the discoveries are not new and were first brought to
   international attention by the Russian geologists in the 60's. Secondly,
   the figure of one trillion dollar is the technological value of the
   survey. More important is the financial feasibility report, particularly
   the economic feasibility report, which also includes the environmental
   impact.

   In Kabul, I had seen the Russian reports in the Ministry of Mines which
   covered almost all the discoveries being currently announced by the US
   media including the petroleum and gas deposits in northern Afghanistan.
   The Taliban Minister said with c onsiderable irony that the Afghan
   government had been very concerned about the welfare of their future
   generations and therefore had made no attempt to exploit these resources.

   The Haji Gak iron deposits which are particularly mentioned in the reports
   were discovered in the early 60's and in fact our Commerce Minister Ghulam
   Farooque Khan had suggested that instead of the Karachi Steel Mill we
   should consider the alternative of a Steel Mill at Kalabagh using Afghan
   ore. However, there was difficulty in ensuring regular supplies given the
   Afghan attitude towards Pakistan in those days, because of the hard line
   policies of Daud Khan. It was a case of Pashtun adventurism winning over
   Pashtun pragmatism. After 50 years, the situation has not changed much.

   The only country bold enough to take the plunge to invest massively in
   Afghanistan has been China. The China Metallurgical Group and Jiangxi
   Copper Company won a bid in 2007 to develop the Aimak Copper Mine paying a
   royalty of $400 million per year to the Afghan government, whose total
   revenues currently are at one billion dollars. The Chinese are also
   planning to put up a power plant in Logar to run the copper mine and also
   build local road connections and transnational railways lines in an
   investment that is expected to reach four billion dollars. According to
   reports, the Aimak Mine alone is expected to produce 12 million tons of
   copper out of Afghanistan's total estimated reserves of 60 million tons of
   copper.

   Details of the US Geological Survey conducted in 2007 are as follows:

   Mineral Potential Value in current prices ($ Billion)

   Iron 421

   Copper 274

   Niobium 81

   Cobalt 51

   Gold 25

   Molybdenum 24

   Rare Earth Elements 7

   Asbestos 6

   Silver 5

   Potash 5

   Aluminium 4

   Graphite 1

   Lapis Lazuli 1

   Fluorite 1

   Phosphorus 1

   Led, Zinc, Mercury, Strontium 1

   Sulphur, Talc , Magnetite, Kaolin 1

   In their preliminary assessment of non-fuel mineral resources for
   Afghanistan, the US Geological Survey estimated that 2.2 billion tons of
   iron was available in the Haji Gak deposit alone with 69 percent iron. In
   addition, there are also considerable deposits between 47 and 68 percent
   iron, making it one of the largest iron deposits in Asia. So far, the
   Indian companies are in the lead bidding for the mining rights including
   Essar Minerals, Rashtriya Ispat Nigam and Ispat Industries. The Chinese
   Metallurgical Group was also a bidder but pulled out after allegations
   that it had won the Aymak copper contract by paying $30 million in bribes.

   Besides these non-fuel deposits the Russian had discovered considerable
   quantities of oil and gas in the area around Mazar-i-Sharif, some of which
   is already being exploited, with small fertiliser factory. There are also
   confirmed deposits of Naphtha in the Polekhumri region, while repor ts of
   petroleum d eposits in the Kandhar and Helmand region.

   Despite this immense geological wealth many of the deposits are in zones
   dominated by the insurgency and have little or no infrastructure. In the
   Afghan bureaucracy, corruption is high and government performance and rule
   of law are weak. Afghanistan therefore has a long way to go before it can
   take advantage of its mineral wealth. We had a similar experience in
   Pakistan where we have been unable to utilise the Thar coal deposits or
   the copper deposits at Rekodiq (which are comparable to those at Aimak).

   The New York Times seems to have realised that it had been a victim of
   media hype and within one week it accepted the conventional wisdom that
   the minerals in Afghanistan required considerable investment for mining
   and processing, as well as for infrastructure development in railways and
   roads, which would be particularly expensive in the mountainous and
   undeveloped regions of Afghanistan where these minerals are normal ly
   found. Gold, silver, copper and other minerals are usually located in ore
   that must be reached by tunnel, blasted out by the tons, carried to the
   surface and ground to powder for processing. Digging the shafts and
   building elevators, processing plants and infrastructure can cost several
   billion dollars for a single mining operation. Economic recoverability
   also requires that a resource cannot only be produced, but also exported
   for less money than its sale value, in order to provide enough return on
   investment to account for the associated risks of the investor. This
   assumes that the US military would succeed in securing the lines and
   supply lines and they would be in the country for the next 10 years in
   order for the project to bear fruit. Electricity plants also need to be
   built close to the sites since mining projects require enormous amount of
   energy. In Afghanistan, despite the passage of 10 years, the US has still
   not been able to provide the generators to make func tional the Kajkai
   hydroelectric project on Helmand River. It seems unlikely therefore that
   the new power projects could be established within the economic framework
   of time relevant to the mining projects.

   The writer is a former ambassador.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The Nation Online in English -- Website
   of a conservative daily, part of the Nawa-i-Waqt publishing group.
   Circulation around 20,000; URL: http://www.nation.com.pk)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   95) Back to Top
   Control Yuan Report Questions Legality Of 1949 Martial Laws
   By Sofia Yeh &amp;amp; Bear Lee - Central News Agency
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 13: 14:49 GMT
   Taipei, Aug. 11 (CNA) -- Members of Taiwan's highest watchdog body
   questioned on Wednesday the legality of the martial laws proclaimed in
   1949, calling into question rulings based on the laws that included jail
   sentences and the confiscation of property.

   Taiwan was under the rule of martial law for 38 years before it was lifted
   on July 15, 1987.Liu Hsing-shan, one of three members of the Control Yuan
   who completed an investigative report on martial law, said that the
   Kuomintang-led Nationalist government proclaimed a series of martial laws
   three times between 1948 and 1949. The last, declared on Nov.22, 1949,
   specifically put the entire Taiwan area under martial law.The Nationalist
   government moved to Taiwan in 1949 after losing a civil war against
   Chinese communists.The last group of martial laws put in place did not
   include the signature of then acting President Lee Tsung-jen, who fled
   directly from the main land to the United States before the Chinese
   Communist Party took total control of China.Lee took over as acting
   president of the Republic of China after Chiang Kai-shek stepped down as
   head of state on Jan. 21, 1949, following a series of setbacks in battles
   against Communist troops.Liu and Control Yuan members Huang Huang-hsiung
   and Yeh Yao-peng spent one year completing the investigation after
   receiving appeals from former Legislator Hsieh Tsung-min and others who
   said they were wrongly jailed or had property confiscated."We are not sure
   whether the martial laws were invalid, but we think they might have been
   flawed, and the answer can only be given by the Constitutional Court," Liu
   said."If the court deems they were illegal because (they did not include
   the signature of the president) , then the legality of military court
   rulings that jailed suspected 'Communist spies or traitors' and
   confiscated their property might have to be reconsidered as a result,&amp;qu
   ot; he added.Liu however, ruled out the possibility of the Control Yuan
   taking the initiative to ask for a constitutional interpretation on the
   issue."It's up to those who suffered from the martial laws, or their
   descendants, to decide whether to apply for a constitutional
   interpretation," he said.Huang said that dealing with the issues would be
   a severe challenge to the government as President Ma Ying-jeou has
   stressed his commitment to the protection of human rights. Ma incorporated
   a pair of United Nations covenants -- the International Covenant on Civil
   Rights and Political Rights and the International Covenant on Economic,
   Social and Cultural Rights -- into domestic law on May 14, 2009.Hsieh
   lauded the move by the three Control Yuan members as "courageous" and
   tantamount to "the first human footstep on the moon, as no one over the
   past decades has dared to touch the highly sensitive martial laws issue."
   Hsieh, who also served as a president ial adviser under former President
   Chen Shui-bian, failed in his bid last year to appeal for a constitutional
   interpretation on the legality of the martial laws."I will call on all the
   sufferers of the martial laws to sue the grand judges who turned down my
   last appeal, and then to ask again for a constitutional ruling on the
   issue," he added.(Description of Source: Taipei Central News Agency in
   English -- "Central News Agency (CNA)," Taiwan's major state-run press
   agency; generally favors ruling administration in its coverage of domestic
   and international affairs; URL: http://www.cna.com.tw)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   96) Back to Top
   PA Official Calls for Commitment to Quartet Statement Before Direct
   Negotiations
   Report by Ali al-Salih in London and Kifah al-Zabun in Ramallah:
   Abu-Rudaynah: We Suggested to the Americans a Commitment to the Quartet
   Statement. He told Al-Sharq al-Awsat: We are waiting for an Israeli Reply
   Within Days - Al-Sharq al-Awsat Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 12:17:31 GMT
   (Description of Source: London Al-Sharq al-Awsat Online in Arabic --
   Website of influential London-based pan-Arab Saudi daily; editorial line
   reflects Saudi official stance. URL: http://www.asharqalawsat.com/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   97) Back to Top
   Ecfa Benefits Touted At Cross-strait Economic Forum
   By Hsieh Chun-wei, Kuo Mei-lan and Y.L. Kao - Central News Agency
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 11:58:40 GMT
   Taipei, Aug. 11 (CNA) -- Taiwan's top economic planner and ruling
   Kuomintang (KMT) Honorary Chairman Lien Chan both said Wednesday that the
   economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) Taiwan signed with China
   last month will benefit both sides and breathe new life into industries on
   both sides of the Taiwan Strait.

   Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) Chairwoman Christina
   Liu said at a cross-strait economic forum that the ECFA is expected to
   help improve Taiwan's economic structure and allow industries on both
   sides to complement each other.Because Asian countries, most of which are
   reliant on exports, were hit hard by the 2008-2009 financial crisis, they
   should adjust their economic and in dustrial structures now that the
   troubles are over, to avoid another financial meltdown, Liu said.She noted
   that there is a clear trend that the industries Taiwan has prioritized for
   development are almost the same as those to which China has given priority
   for promotion. These industries include green energy, electric cars, green
   architecture, medical and healthcare, culture, innovation and
   education.Liu added, therefore, that the two sides should think about how
   to cooperate in developing these industries and help the industries on
   both sides to complement each other and create mutual benefits.Citing the
   advantages each side has to offer, Liu said that in addition to its vast
   market, China offers abundant opportunities at a time when it is making
   great efforts in infrastructure development, while Taiwan has strong "soft
   power." Taking as an example the Taiwanese businesses operating in China,
   Liu said that RT-Mart International Ltd., a Taiwanese retail brand that
   entered China in 1997, has become a famous chain in China by using
   Taiwan's "soft power." With the warming relations between the two sides
   and the allowing of Chinese investment in Taiwan, factors that hindered
   the development of Taiwan's industries and hurt its people's livelihoods
   in the past have been removed, according to Liu.She also said Taiwan is
   working hard to solicit foreign investment and expressed hope that more
   investors from China, the United States and Europe will invest in Taiwan
   now that the ECFA has been signed.Lien for his part said Taiwan is
   entering a "golden era" thanks to the ECFA signing because it is expected
   to help bring numerous business opportunities and revitalize industries on
   both sides of the strait.He said the ECFA will help reverse Taiwan's
   economic slump over the past decade, allow the country to compete with
   other countries in the world on an equal footing and enhance cross-strait
   mutual trust and cooperation.On the b enefits the ECFA will bring for
   Taiwan, Lien said it will help boost Taiwan's economy and exports, adding
   that Taiwan will be in an even better position after it further completes
   agreements with China on trade in products, trade in services and
   investment guarantees.The KMT honorary chairman also said the ECFA will
   not only be good for Taiwanese businesses seeking to expand their global
   reach but will also help attract foreign investment to Taiwan, lay the
   foundation for Taiwan to establish economic cooperation agreements with
   its trade partners and even make Taiwan an Asia-Pacific economic and trade
   hub.Lien said business opportunities are already emerging in the wake of
   the ECFA signing. For example, tariff exemptions and preferential market
   treatment for hundreds of products and services under the ECFA's "early
   harvest" lists are expected to attract more overseas Taiwanese businesses
   to re-invest in Taiwan, he said.Now that the ECFA has been signed, he
   added, T aiwan should focus more on exploring China's domestic market, as
   China is mapping out its 12th five-year economic plan, which means that
   its domestic demand is expected to grow.(Description of Source: Taipei
   Central News Agency in English -- "Central News Agency (CNA)," Taiwan's
   major state-run press agency; generally favors ruling administration in
   its coverage of domestic and international affairs; URL:
   http://www.cna.com.tw)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   98) Back to Top
   US Envoy to Pakistan Faces Tough Questions Regarding Afghan-Trade Transit
   Treaty
   Report by Kaswar Klasra: ATTA unacceptable in present form, traders tell
   Patterson - The Nation Online
   &lt; div style="font-weight:normal"&gt;Wednesday August 11, 2010 10:36:10 GMT
   ISLAMABAD - Ambassador of United States to Pakistan Anne W Patterson found
   herself in hot water on Tuesday when she was asked critical questions with
   regard to Pak-Afghanistan Transit Trade.

   "What made the USA to push Pakistan to sign much controversial
   'Pak-Afghanistan Transit Trade Agreement' which not only puts question
   mark on national security of the Pakistan but also threatens thousands of
   people associated with goods transport system in Pakistan", Ann Patterson
   was asked when she came to address the officials and members of business
   community of Islamabad Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

   Insiders told TheNation on condition of anonymity that the traders made it
   crystal clear to Patterson that 'Pak-Afghanistan Transit Trade' in present
   form was not acceptable to them as it could put the future of Pakistani
   truckers at stake. Ho wever, they suggested if the goods transporters of
   Pakistan were assigned a role to transfer goods from Wagah border to
   Torkhum (Pak-Afghanistan border), from where the trucks of Afghanistan
   could take them home, only then it could make some sense.

   Ann Patterson is said to have ignored these questions and remained
   tight-lipped, however instead she stressed that Pakistan needed to improve
   its investment climate to lure the foreign investors. US was also
   encouraging its international partners to see Pakistan as a good
   investment destination, she added.

   Anything that has a US imprint in Pakistan is surely in for trouble these
   days, or at least has been for some time. Be it the Kerry-Lugar bill,
   movement of vehicles belonging to US embassy/consulates, or the American
   influenced 'Pak-Afghan transit Trade' everything is greeted with
   suspicion, and surely credit goes to the Americans themselves.

   Pakistan Anti-US feeling is growing high in Pakistan, and especial ly
   since the first American boot in Afghanistan left its footprint in Oct of
   2001 anger here has only grown.

   Apart from other things, during the past couple of months there has been
   seen an increasing number of incidents involving US embassy vehicles being
   stopped, searched and detained, across Pakistan on account of possessing
   illegal arms and ammunition.

   Pakistan and the US have long been allies: both helped the Afghan nation
   defeat the USSR, then turned the tables on the Taliban government in
   Afghanistan. But throughout the years common people of Pakistan have had a
   hate relationship with US policies towards their country.

   For sure Pakistanis hate the Americans on some grounds. In a bid to
   justify their hate towards Americans they are very right to argue that why
   the US is opposing Pak-China Civil Nuclear deal when they had already
   signed a Civil Nuclear deal with India.

   Following issues of Kerry-Lugar bill and movement of vehicles belonging to
   US embassy/consulates without proper documents, Pakistanis, now, have
   started questioning controversial Pak-Afghanistan Transit Trade Agreement
   as they are under the impression that the US pressurised Pakistan to sign
   it.

   Ambassador Patterson told the business community that that US was more
   interested to invest in Pakistan's energy sector and strengthen its
   economic base as without sustainable energy availability, it would not be
   possible for Pakistan to improve its industrial productivity and achieve
   better economic growth. She said US was cooperating with Pakistan in
   setting up small power plants in wind, solar and other sectors.

   US provided helicopters and financial and material support to Pakistan as
   a part of initial $ 10 million aid as the cost to Pakistan's economy is
   mounting due to flood damages. She said US was also considering additional
   aid request from Pakistan and had already provided $ 245 million to it for
   construction of dams and other water facilities.

   US Ambassador said that Pakistan had lowest tax-to-GDP ratio in the region
   and desired enough improvement in tax collection as no Government could
   run its affairs without proper tax payment from its citizens. She said US
   was also cooperating with Pakistan in bringing tax reforms.

   According to a press note issued from media section of Islamabad Chamber
   of Commerce and Industry, Zahid Maqbool, President, Islamabad Chamber of
   Commerce &amp;amp; Industry lauded the US Government for providing Pakistan
   helicopters, boats, temporary bridges and some other supplies to cope with
   the massive floods.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The Nation Online in English -- Website
   of a conservative daily, part of the Nawa-i-Waqt publishing group.
   Circulation around 20,000; URL: http://www.nation.com.pk)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inqui ries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   99) Back to Top
   Index Shows ROK-DPRK Unification Prospects Dim '2 Years in a Row'
   Report by Shin Hae-in: "Unification prospects dim 2 years in a row" - The
   Korea Herald Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 06:49:44 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul The Korea Herald Online in English --
   Website of the generally pro-government English-language daily The Korea
   Herald; URL: http://www.koreaherald.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   100) Back to Top
   ROK Editorial Says ROK Military Sending 'Wrong' Message to DPRK
   Editorial: "The Military Is Sending The Wrong Message to N.Korea" - Chosun
   Ilbo Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 06:16:20 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Chosun Ilbo Online in English -- English
   website carrying English summaries and full translations of vernacular
   hard copy items of the largest and oldest daily Chosun Ilbo, which is
   conservative in editorial orientation -- strongly nationalistic,
   anti-North Korea, and generally pro-US; URL: http://english.chosun.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   101) Back to Top
   People's Daily Online Columnist Says Pentagon's Gunboat Policy Irks China
   By People's Daily Online columnist Li Hong: "Pentagon's gunboat policy" -
   Renmin Ribao
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 09:08:49 GMT
   Eight months ago, President Obama stated to the world that "the rise of a
   strong, prosperous China can be a source of strength for the community of
   nations." But, the warmth of relationship is hardly tangible today.Though
   seriously in debt, the US' military never runs out of money, and its
   smoking gunboat never decelerates and lowers its juggernaut nose. The
   jumbo carrier, USS George Washington, after staging a high-profile
   exercise with South Korea in the Sea of Japan and hosted a group of
   Vietnamese generals in the South China Sea, is said to present another war
   game with South Korea in the Yellow Sea, from where China's capita l city
   is within F-18s' radius.Beijing is certainly unhappy. A Chinese Foreign
   Ministry statement said the Beijing had repeatedly "expressed our clear
   and firm position" on any maneuvers in the Yellow Sea. And, a Chinese
   general warned that U.S. plans to bring George Washington to China's
   doorstep may provoke "economic retaliation". Some online commentators have
   recommended Beijing take low-profile moves to express China's displeasure,
   including a temporary halt to buy U.S. debts. Others speak of a
   tit-for-tat.This country must not overreact. After all, the Pentagon is
   just showing off, or at most, projecting its military power and
   predominance, although Uncle Sam has become financially precarious in its
   foundation each passing day. It is odd that American economists have
   warned some of their cities are lighting less of their street lamps at
   night (to save dollars), but their state-of-the-art war ships are cruising
   day and night in three of the four ocea ns. In China, we will call it
   "bai-ja-zi" (prodigal).Global affairs watchers have pointed out that
   behind the latest bellicose military postures, Washington clearly has a
   geopolitical agenda. Despite President Obama's earlier promise that "the
   United States does not seek to contain China", an arc of American "allies"
   circling China is what his administration tries to form and shadow this
   country. No wonder at last month's southeastern Asia security meeting in
   Hanoi, State Secretary Clinton extended her hand to former arch foe,
   Vietnam.US' intention to plant seeds of distrust between China and its
   neighbors has swayed some. For instance, not long ago, an aging politician
   from ASEAN claimed that if China's rising military and economic power were
   not "balanced" by America, Uncle Sam may risk losing its global
   leadership. See? Quite a few in the region, clawing to the old order with
   the U.S. at the central, are just shocked and awed by Chi na's rapid
   economic growth.Vietnam joined the U.S. in harsh attacks on China on the
   settlement of South China Sea claims at the Hanoi meeting, where Clinton
   suggested an international mechanism to solve the issue, for the first
   time, hinting at direct U.S. involvement. Beijing is not alone in opposing
   it. Philippine Foreign Secretary Alberto Romulo has told Washington to
   keep out:"It's ASEAN and China. Can I make myself clear? It's ASEAN and
   China. Is that clear enough?" he told reporters.It will be a long time, I
   guess, before the U.S. does not pose its noses around the globe. Some are
   to hail the day's coming, while others will loath it.But, China, with a
   history of 5,000 years and a culture of benevolence, could be resilient
   and tolerant in responding to the current U.S. military aggressiveness. It
   could just shrug off the ill-will from the Pentagon, and concentrate on
   China's own path of economic expansion, military modernization, and
   aligning with all the frie ndly countries worldwide.

   (The articles in this column represent the author's views only. They do
   not represent opinions of People's Daily or People's Daily Online)

   (Description of Source: Beijing People's Daily Online in English --
   Internet-only English version of Renmin Ribao, the daily newspaper of the
   CPC Central Committee. URL: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   102) Back to Top
   Taiwan Political Issues 10 August 2010 - Taiwan -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 06:27:29 GMT
   -- According to this Tzu-yu Shih-pao report by Li Hsin-fang, as the
   legislature is to hold a second extraordinary session to review the ECFA,
   Yao Chia-wen, head of the Taiwan Nation Alliance, and a number of heads of
   Taiwan localization groups announced on 9 August that they would hold
   sit-in protests outside the Legislative Yuan on 16 and 17 August to voice
   their opposition to the ECFA. According to the report, they said the
   Legislative Yuan has become a rubber stamp of approval on the Presidential
   Office and the Executive Yuan's proposals. The report claims that the
   localization groups also supported holding a referendum on the ECFA.

   http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2010/new/aug/11/today-fo2.htm
   http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2010/new/aug/11/today-fo2.htm "Citizen
   Congress Watch (CCW) Plans To Hold 'Blindfold' Rally on 14 August"

   -- According to this Tzu-yu Shih-pao report by Ch'en Hui-p'ing, the CCW is
   to launch a "blindfold" protest march on 14 August to show their
   discontent over the legislature's wa y of handling the ECFA. CCW Executive
   Director Ho Tsung-hsun said on 9 August that in an extra legislative
   session held in July the legislature spent less than six minutes to decide
   to send the ECFA to a second reading. Ho said the CCW wanted to hold the
   rally before the second extra session begins to remind the legislators
   that they should do their job. According to the report, Ho hoped that one
   thousand protesters would show up at the rally on 14 August.

   http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2010/new/aug/11/today-fo3.htm
   http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2010/new/aug/11/today-fo3.htm "Democratic
   Progressive Party (DPP) Says President Ma Not Sincere About Signing Free
   Trade Agreement (FTA) With United States"

   -- According to this Lien-ho Pao report by Kuo An-chia, the DPP caucus
   held a press conference on 10 August and raised doubt about the Ma
   government's pledge to push forward the signing of a FTA with the United
   States. DPP legislator Wong Chin-chu said th at in a Ministry of Foreign
   Affairs' (MOFA) policy performance report dated 17 April 2009, the MOFA
   has suspended action plans on promoting the signing of a FTA with the
   United States. However, according to Wong, the MOFA stated in a 2010
   budget plan that it would vigorously push forward a Taiwan-US FTA.

   http://udn.com/NEWS/NATIONAL/BREAKINGNEWS1/5778646.shtml
   http://udn.com/NEWS/NATIONAL/BREAKINGNEWS1/5778646.shtml "Li Yafei Says To
   Promote Further Cross-Strait Cooperation"

   -- According to this Chung-yang T'ung-hsun-she (Central News Agency, CNA)
   report by Pien Chin-feng at the Taoyuan International Airport, Li Yafei,
   vice chairman and secretary general of China's Association for Relations
   Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS), arrived in Taiwan on 10 August to attend
   a cross-Strait Peace and Prosperity Forum. The report claims that Li and
   his group are expected to stay in Taiwan for three days. According to the
   report, Li said that after the two sides ha ve signed the ECFA
   cross-Strait economic cooperation and exchanges have been in a good
   situation. Li stressed that basing on this the two sides should discuss
   how to promote further cooperation. According to the report, Li is in
   Taiwan to attend the forum and to visit the Strait Exchange Foundation
   (SEF).

   http://www.cna.com.tw/ShowNews/Detail.aspx?pNewsID=201008100272&amp;amp;pType1=PD&amp;amp;pType0=aIPL&amp;amp;pTypeSel=&amp;amp;pPNo=1
   http://www.cna.com.tw/ShowNews/Detail.aspx?pNewsID=201008100272&amp;amp;pType1=PD&amp;amp;pType0=aIPL&amp;amp;pTypeSel=&amp;amp;pPNo=1
   "Chao Chun-shan Says Two Sides Not Ready To Engage in Military, Political
   Talks"

   -- According to this Chung-kuo Shih-pao report by Wang Ming-yi, Mainland
   Affairs Council (MAC) Chairman Lai Shin-yuan recently urged the mainland
   side to give up its policies and laws that allow the use of force against
   Taiwan, and a media report claims that Lai's move has caused the two sides
   to harbor su spicions. Commenting on the controversy, Chao Chun-shan,
   chairman of the Foundation on Asia-Pacific Peace Studies (FAPS), said on 9
   August that the two sides did not change the negotiation process of
   "handling economic issues first and political issues later." He said
   cross-Strait negotiations are not affected by the controversy. According
   to the report, Chao and his delegation went to China in July and have met
   with Beijing's Taiwan affairs officials. Chao said he did not believe
   Beijing would misjudge the situation and make an unnecessary political
   reaction. The report claims that Chao also stressed that the mainland side
   knew quite well the Ma government's policies and its political situation,
   and in the next two years the two sides probably will not be ready to
   engage in talks on delicate political issues and military confidence
   building measures.

   http://news.chinatimes.com/mainland/0,5245,50504463x112010081000239,00.html
   http://news.chinatimes.com/mainl
   and/0,5245,50504463x112010081000239,00.html

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   103) Back to Top
   International Security Assistant Force 'Confirms' Killing of 3 NATO
   Soldiers
   Unattributed report: "NATO Soldiers Killed in Afghanistan" Text
   disseminated as received without OSC editorial intervention - Bakhtar News
   Agency
   Monday July 12, 2010 11:44:36 GMT
   (Description of Source: Kabul Bakhtarnews Agency in English --
   Afghanistan's first official news agency; URL:
   http://www.bakhtarnews.com.af)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Per mission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   104) Back to Top
   Portuguese Commentary Regrets Obama's Decision To Try Guantanamo
   'Child-Soldier'
   Commentary by Sofia Lorena: "Stays in His Curriculum Vitae" - Publico
   Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 16:36:52 GMT
   (Description of Source: Lisbon Publico Online in Portuguese --
   Lisbon-based, center-left, national daily newspaper; privately owned by
   SONAE group (led by Jardim Goncalves); readership: 77,000; URL:
   http://jornal.publico.pt/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US D ept. of
   Commerce.

   105) Back to Top
   Correa Touts Economic Advances in Ecuador, Warns of 'Destabilization
   Attempts'
   Unattributed report: "Correa Asks for New Majority." For assistance with
   multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Hoy.com.ec
   Thursday August 12, 2010 00:45:59 GMT
   Speaking before the full Assembly to an audience of more than 1,200, the
   chief of state divided his address into two parts. In the first, he
   displayed his ability as a former professor in underscoring his
   administration's economic and social achievements.

   In the second, he talked about opposition to his administration, saying
   that it is embodied in "an indigenous leadership that tells lies,"
   "certain corrupt newspapers," and a legis lative opposition that is
   attempting to "block at all costs" administration bills.

   He began by denouncing a group of indigenous leaders, without mentioning
   names, accusing them of lying to the country and employing violence to
   demand their rights. He reiterated the charge that their activities
   against the government are financed by nongovernmental organizations and
   accused them of being separatists for wanting "to make the Amazon region
   independent of the rest of Ecuador."

   Correa also mentioned the plebiscite in the canton of La Concordia, in the
   province of Esmeraldas, saying that his is the first administration that
   "is confronting the problem instead of avoiding it." He said that those
   who are "against asking the people about their destiny" may be subject to
   a recall effort.

   Then, charging that one segment of the press was "corrupt," he showed a
   five-minute video clip with footage of well-known newspap er and
   television reporters.

   He then warned the legislative opposition that he could at any time
   dissolve it, underscoring: "...we will never be afraid to put our posts at
   the disposal of the citizenry."

   He said that he is trying to accelerate the process of social change in
   the country through "new rules on investment." To this end, he announced
   that he would be submitting two emergency economic bills: the production
   and the public finances codes.

   In conclusion he emphasized the need to forge alliances, saying that the
   immediate challenge is "to build a new political majority."

   The president's speech was applauded by most of the audience, but one
   group of legislators, mainly from the MPD (Democratic People's Movement)
   only applauded Vice President Lenin Moreno after his address.

   Moreno Cites Accomplishments: Improving Life for the Handicapped and a
   Better Mood

   Vice President Lenin Moreno focused his ann ual report on the work done by
   the Manuela Espejo Mission, which serves the disabled in the country's
   poorest areas.

   In his 24-minute address he emphasized that the Citizen Revolution "is
   being carried out without weapons and in all spheres of life." He said
   that his efforts have been social rather than political, adding that "for
   the first time, a vice president has set aside the often anonymous work of
   managing enormous amounts of classified expenditures, shadowy public
   funds, desperate privatizations, and on more than one occasion,
   conspiracies and destabilization efforts." He said that the vice
   presidency now enhances governability on the basis of loyalty. Among his
   accomplishments he singled out the release of children from jails and the
   restoration of a positive and friendly mood in the country.

   Unasur To Promote Y-ITT Plan in Mexico

   One week after signing the trust agreement for the Yasuni-ITT Initiative
   with the UNDP, Presiden t Rafael Correa reported yesterday that Unasur
   (Union of South American Nations) would submit the project at the climate
   change summit that will be held in Cancun, Mexico this November.

   He mentioned, however, that he has a "Plan B" in the event that his
   request for international contributions to prevent the development of some
   846 million barrels of oil in the ITT block in Yasuni National Park is
   unsuccessful. This is one of the most important ecological reserves in
   Ecuador and, in fact, the world.

   The Correa administration is asking for $3.6 billion a year in
   international contributions to avoid oil development there, which means
   forgoing some $7 billion a year in revenues. The administration is thus
   telling the world that it wants to help ease the impact of climate change,
   as leaving that oil in the ground would mean that millions of tons of CO2,
   a severe contaminant, would not be emitted. "We cannot be the dupes on the
   planet," Correa sai d yesterday, adding that if there is no response from
   the international community, he will develop this oil "responsibly and
   without dramatics."

   Administration's Accomplishments

   "Goodbye to Neoliberalism and the Washington Consensus"

   "We are leaving neoliberalism behind. They are no longer dictating
   economic policy to us on the basis of the Washington Consensus, in which
   no Latin American was involved, to our shame," said President Correa,
   emphasizing that his administration is giving priority to human beings
   over capital. He reported that from 2006, a year before he took office, to
   last year, public investment increased from 6% to 13% of GDP, also noting
   the 0.36% growth rate in 2009 in spite of the impact from declining
   remittances, oil prices, and exports. He went on to mention the $300
   million in savings on interest payments thanks to the renegotiation of the
   Global 2012 and 2013 bonds, a renegotiation that he described as
   successful. The president said that his administration is appropriating
   all of these revenues for public works, roadways, education, and health
   care, in contrast to his predecessors, who prioritized debt repayment.

   "The Reality Is Different from the Message"

   Jaime Carrera, director of the Fiscal Policy Monitor, said that reality
   unfortunately stands in contrast to Rafael Correa's message. He added that
   growth prospects are poor, that progress has not been made in
   competitiveness, that the economy is at a standstill, and that inflation
   is higher than in 2006.

   "Social Investment Already Stands at $15 Billion"

   President Rafael Correa said that he has invested around $15 billion in
   education and health care. He acknowledged, however, that total social
   spending in Ecuador still amounts to only 8.3% of gross domestic product,
   a low level for a Latin American country. As for health-care policy, the
   chief executive underscored the c itizen revolution's flagship
   accomplishment of having lowered infant malnutrition, which currently
   stands at 26% nationwide, with an urban rate of 19% and a rural rate of
   35%. Correa added that he was concerned, however, because half of the
   people suffering from this disease are found in indigenous communities.
   "This disease is the result of poverty and lack of information," he said.
   He noted, however, that the anemia rate in the country is down around 12
   percentage points during his 3 1/2 years in office.

   Still Worrisome Numbers

   In the view of the administrative dean of the University of Azuay, Carlos
   Cordero, the country's growth and unemployment rates are still worrisome
   because they continue to worsen. He believes that this situation is
   largely the result of a bad investment climate in Ecuador.

   President Seeks Support for Large-Scale Mining

   Correa made special mention of the 362 mining concessions that have been
   handed out since 2007 and denied that industrial or large-scale mining is
   adversely affecting water sources, as indigenous, social, and
   environmental circles critical of this activity claim. The chief of state
   lashed out against these circles in his speech yesterday. "Who are we
   kidding? Our ancestral peoples were and are silver- and goldsmiths... We
   are inventing myths in order to avoid the country's future," he said,
   adding that mining would create some 7,000 direct and 25,000 indirect
   jobs. "We are sensible humanists and environmentalists, not environmental
   fundamentalists. Mother Earth is important to us, but what is most
   important are human beings, and we need to give them prosperity," he
   emphasized. He said that no one has done more than his administration has
   to combat poverty, which besets mainly the indigenous population. He
   admitted, however, that Ecuador remains one of the most inequitable
   countries in the region.

   PRE Supports Mining Industry

   PRE (Ecu adoran Roldosist Party) Assembly member Dalo Bucaram described
   the administration's track record in the oil and mining industries as
   positive. "We are moving forward as part of a revolution, and let's hope
   that the opposition does not continue to block the democratic path and
   that the conspirators inside the AP (Alliance for the Country) itself do
   not thwart the president's work," he said.

   Warns Bankers and Again Mentions Conspiracy

   Rafael Correa devoted at least 30 minutes of his speech yesterday to
   reminding the owners of financial institutions that the deadline
   established by the Constitution for them to sell off mass media companies
   and others not related to financial activities is this October.

   Correa emphasized that it is a "momentous and irreversible step" in his
   citizen revolution to prevent financial groups from controlling the mass
   media. He added, however, that the restriction extends to any other
   activity unrelated to bank ing. He called on the people and the Assembly
   to make sure that no one sneaks out of this obligation. The chief of state
   then reaffirmed once again that there are "attempts at destabilization by
   those who do not accept the changes that the country is undergoing."

   "This is a political message." This is how former Economy Minister
   Mauricio Pozo sees the president's warnings to and charges against the
   financial sector. "This sends a political message, the upshot of an
   ideological taboo for the current president," Pozo said, adding that
   entrepreneurs must be free to invest.

   (Description of Source:Quito Hoy.com.ec in Spanish -- Digital version of
   unaffiliated daily owned by Diario Hoy multimedia company, third in
   readership in Ecuador; URL: http://www.hoy.com.ec)Attachments:Correa.jpg

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   106) Back to Top
   Next 52 Format Talks on Transdniestria to Be Held in September - Interfax
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 11:12:45 GMT
   MOSCOW. Aug 11 (Interfax) - The next meeting of the participants in the
   negotiations on settling the conflict over Transdniestria in the 5+2
   format will take place in September.Russian State Secretary and Deputy
   Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin had a telephone conversation with the
   Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe Chairman-in-Office's
   Special Representative for Protracted Conflicts Bolat Nurgaliyev on
   Wednesday, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.Karasin and
   Nurgaliyev "exchanged opinions on the Transdniestria settlement
   negotiating process, pro spects for resuming official meetings in the 5+2
   format (Moldova and Transdniestria as the parties of the conflict, Russia
   and Ukraine as the guarantor countries, the OSCE as a mediator, and the
   European Union and the U.S. as observers), and modalities of the next
   meeting between the participants in this format planned for September this
   year," it said.The talks in the 5+2 format were suspended in February
   2006, but consultations in this format have been continued.va mj(Our
   editorial staff can be reached at
   eng.editors@interfax.ru)Interfax-950040-NJYZCBAA

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   107) Back to Top
   Korea Ranks 4th in R&amp;amp;D Investment Among OECD Nations - Chosun Il bo
   Online
   Thursday August 12, 2010 01:21:11 GMT
   (CHOSUN ILBO) - Korea's investment in research and development ranked
   fourth largest in 2008 among member nations of the OECD for a fourth year
   in a row.

   According to statistics released Tuesday by the Ministry of Knowledge
   Economy, the country spent W34.5 trillion (US$1=W1,182) on R&amp;amp;D in
   2008, or 3.37 percent of its GDP.Around 75 percent of Korea's R&amp;amp;D
   investment came from the private sector, higher than in China (72.3
   percent), the U.S. (71.9 percent), and Germany (69.9 percent).More than 70
   percent of the money from the private sector was spent by big businesses,
   indicating that conglomerates are spearheading the country's R&amp;amp;D
   investment.The government's R&amp;amp;D budget has grown 10.5 percent annually
   since 2002, outpacing the overall national budget growth rate of 6.5
   percent.Meanwhile, the largest chu nk of the government's R&amp;amp;D funds
   this year, W4.41 trillion, was earmarked for the Ministry of Knowledge
   Economy, followed by W4.39 trillion for the Ministry of Education, Science
   and Technology, and W1.80 trillion for the Defense Acquisition Program
   Administration.(Description of Source: Seoul Chosun Ilbo Online in English
   -- English website carrying English summaries and full translations of
   vernacular hard copy items of the largest and oldest daily Chosun Ilbo,
   which is conservative in editorial orientation -- strongly nationalistic,
   anti-North Korea, and generally pro-US; URL: http://english.chosun.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   108) Back to Top
   KT to Lease Netwo rk to MVNOs - JoongAng Daily Online
   Thursday August 12, 2010 00:36:57 GMT
   (JOONGANG ILBO) - KT, the country's largest fixed-line operator and
   second-largest mobile carrier, announced yesterday that it will be lending
   out its networks to three "mobile virtual network operators," shortly
   after that type of telecommunications firm was legalized.

   An MVNO is a company that does not have a cellular network of its own, but
   still provides mobile phone services, such as voice minutes, text
   messaging and data traffic, by renting bandwidth from telecom
   operators.Korea's National Assembly passed a bill early this year to allow
   MVNOs to enter the telecom market in efforts to lower barriers to entry
   and increase competition in the country's highly saturated telecom market,
   which has so far been dominated by three companies: SK Telecom, KT and LG
   U+, in order of market share.With the move, KT becomes the first of the
   three to deal with an MVNO. KT will lend its networks to three companies:
   Entaz, which will offer a mobile portal service with games, cartoons and
   electronic books, Free Telecom and Evergreen Mobile, which will offer
   prepaid voice call and data usage services targeting temporary customers
   such as foreign visitors."We will help these companies offer
   differentiated service and find untapped, niche markets so that together
   we can create a mobile ecosystem," said Gwak Bong-gun, director of KT's
   Fast Incubation Center, in charge of its MVNO business initiative.KT's
   announcement comes before any deal from SK Telecom, which the Korea
   Communications Commission had said it would force to lend network space to
   MVNOs as the market leader.Observers say KT sees the MVNO business model
   as a chance to form an ecosystem, a buzzword in the IT industry that
   refers to a business platform that includes network hardware, operating
   system, software, ven dors and services."There are still niche markets
   like foreigners, so we believe MVNOs can discover untapped customers in
   the telecom market," said Yang Hyeon-mi, director of KT's Personal
   Customer Strategic Team.Market observers say the MVNO business model could
   revitalize Korea's telecom market and lower mobile phone service fees. As
   MVNOs don't need to build their own networks, they can offer mobile phone
   services at lower costs.Countries like the United States and Germany are
   known to have a large number of MVNOs. In Britain, some 25 MVNOs enjoy
   some 10 percent of mobile phone users as subscribers.(Description of
   Source: Seoul JoongAng Daily Online in English -- Website of
   English-language daily which provides English-language summaries and
   full-texts of items published by the major center-right daily JoongAng
   Ilbo, as well as unique reportage; distributed as an insert to the Seoul
   edition of the International Herald Tribune; URL:
   http://joongangdaily.joins.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   109) Back to Top
   Italian Press 11 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from the Italian press on 11 August. To
   request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735;
   or fax (703) 613-5735. - Italy -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 07:33:19 GMT
   1. Vatican daily L'Osservatore Romano takes its cue from weather-related
   disasters in Asia, Africa, East Europe to fault world's governments over
   'delays' in addressing climate change. (p 2; 150 words; processing)

   2. Northern League Secretary Bossi discusses likelihood of early election.
   (p 8; 650 words; processing)

   3. FLI set to question government's foreign policy, preferential ties with
   Libyan leader Al-Qadhafi, Russian PM Putin, which 'are giving our European
   and US allies much cause for concern.' (p 10; 450 words; processing
   250-word excerpt)

   4. Guido Olimpio cites 'sources' on allegation top Turkish, Iranian
   intelligencers recently met to discuss arms for Hizballah. (p 17; 350
   words; processing)

   5. Northern League backs Veneto Governor Zaia's stance opposing GMOs. (p
   23; 250 words; processing)

   6. Former Palermo Mayor Ciancimino's son, wife 'confirms' PM Berlusconi
   had dealings with cosa Nostra. (p 25; 750 words; processing)

   7. Finmeccanica consultant Cola denies money laundering charge. (p 27; 100
   words; processing)

   Milan Il Giornale in Italian -- right-of-center daily owned by the
   Berlusconi family

   1. Mario Cervi backs Italy's ongoing involvement in ISAF mission. ('La
   Stanza di Mario Cervi' co lumn; p 35; 500 words; processing)

   Milan Il Sole-24 Ore in Italian -- leading financial and economic daily

   1. Finmeccanica lands major Panama security system contract. (p 30; 350
   words; processing)

   Negative selection: Rome La Repubblica ; Turin La Stampa ;

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   110) Back to Top
   Germany Slammed for Buying Body Scanners From US Cluster Bomb Manufacturer
   Report by "dgs": "Dodgy Deals: Germany Slammed for 'Supporting' Cluster
   Bomb Manufacturer" - Spiegel Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 11:42:21 GMT
   (Description of Source: Ha mburg Spiegel Online in English --
   English-language news website funded by the Spiegel group which funds Der
   Spiegel weekly and the Spiegel television magazine; URL:
   http://www.spiegel.de)Attachments:image-119725-panoV9free-bhvc.jpg

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   111) Back to Top
   U.S. Does Not Plan to Open New Military Base in Kyrgyzstan - Ambassador -
   Interfax
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 10:24:02 GMT
   BISHKEK. Aug 11 (Interfax) - Washington does not plan to construct a new
   military base in Kyrgyzstan or in any other country in Central Asia, but
   it suggests building a center to train Kyrgyz dr ug control and
   counter-terrorism units, U.S. Ambassador to Bishkek Tatiana Gfoeller said
   at a news conference on Wednesday.The idea of creating such a training
   center has already been discussed at talks with Kyrgyzstan's interim
   government, Gfoeller said.Earlier, a spokesman for the Kyrgyz interim
   government denied Western media reports claiming that the U.S. planned to
   open a military base in the town of Osh in the south of the republic.Manas
   International Airport outside Bishkek currently houses a U.S.-controlled
   transit center used to support the counter-terrorism operation in
   Afghanistan.tm mj(Our editorial staff can be reached at
   eng.editors@interfax.ru)Interfax-950040-CXWZCBAA

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   112) Back to Top&lt; /a&gt;
   Kyrgyzstan political parties sign OSCE-supported Code of Conduct -
   UzReport.com
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 09:23:07 GMT
   - Kyrgyzstan political parties sign OSCE-supported Code of Conduct

   11.08.2010 12:43:01 Representatives of 26 political parties in Kyrgyzstan
   signed on 11 August an OSCE-supported Code of Conduct at a ceremony in
   Bishkek.The Code of Conduct outlines principles guiding the parties'
   behaviour during the campaign ahead of the 10 October election. It was
   elaborated with support of the OSCE Centre in Bishkek in co-operation with
   the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs, the
   International Republican Institute, the United States Agency for
   International Development and the OSCE-supported non-governmental
   organization "Parliament of Political Parties"."Kyrgyzstan's political
   parties des erve a lot of credit for reaching agreement on this Code,"
   said Lilian Darii, the acting head of the OSCE Centre in Bishkek. "It
   demonstrates a constructive and responsible approach to democratic
   politics, and proves that compromise and consensus are possible even in
   the heat of intense political competition. I trust that this Code will
   help turn the upcoming election into a factor for stability in
   Kyrgyzstan."Erkingul Imankojoeva, the head of the Presidential
   Administration's department for public relations, said: "The signing of
   this code of ethics today will help guarantee a transparent election
   process, based on democratic principles. We are certain that by adhering
   to the Code of Conduct, the parties will demonstrate to the nation of
   Kyrgyzstan and the international community that in our country one can
   achieve one's goals with respect for the law."Roza Aknazarova, the head of
   "Parliament of Political Parties", called on all the signat ories "to
   respect its norms and rules, which will contribute to stabilization in the
   country. We hope that the parties will be able to make the election free
   and fair, and to help preserve peace and harmony for the future of our
   children and the unity of Kyrgyzstan."Other parties in Kyrgyzstan may
   still sign up to the Code. The text has been published by key media
   outlets in Kyrgyzstan and is available in the Kyrgyz, Russian and English
   languages on the OSCE Centre's website.The OSCE Centre supported the
   negotiation process and signing ceremony as part of its assistance to the
   country ahead of the election.(Description of Source: Tashkent
   UzReport.com in English -- Business information portal; URL:
   http://uzreport.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   113) Back to Top
   Lebanese Press 11 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from the Lebanese press on 11 August.
   To request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735. - Lebanon -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 17:55:15 GMT
   "Damascus praises the facts; Tehran says it is a purely Lebanese issue;
   Israel says the accusations are ridiculous"

   "The Special Tribunal has an eye on Nasrallah's documents; a Lebanese
   investigation committee is confusing and not influential" Al-Akhbar

   "Tel Aviv avoids a debate with Nasrallah by saying he is evading the
   stalemate he is in" Al-Safir

   "The Future Movement transfers the accusation against Israel to Bellemare;
   Mirza opens the case of collaborator Ghassa n al-Jad"

   "The international investigation is put to the test by the information
   (brought up by Nasrallah); the trend is to postpone the indictment"
   Al-Diyar

   "The president to Al-Diyar: No one but Israel has an interest in driving
   the situation to explode"

   "Birri: If the United States stops arming the Lebanese Army, we will bring
   weapons from underground" Al-Anwar

   "The Future Movement bloc calls for referring Nasrallah's documents to the
   Special Tribunal" Al-Liwa

   "Hizballah throws Nasrallah's file to the government" Coverage in details
   1. Beirut Al-Nahar (Internet Version-WWW) in Arabic (Independent,
   moderate, centrist, and Christian; URL:

   http://www.annahar.com.lb/ http://www.annahar.com.lb

   a. Front-page report cites Special Tribunal spokesperson Fatimah al-Isawi
   responding to a question by Al-Nahar about Hizballah Secretary General
   Sayyid Hasan Nasrallah's revelations: &amp; quot;All I can do is reiterate
   what the prosecutor's office has already said, i.e. that all trustworthy
   evidence is being examined." An official source told Al-Nahar that
   "Lebanon cannot interfere in the tribunal, which is the only one
   commissioned by the UN Security Council resolution to look into the 2005
   assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri and subsequent
   assassinations." On the political level, the same source said that "a
   Lebanese investigation committee would sow confusion in the tribunal's
   operations without affecting it on the purely legal level." Ministerial
   sources predicted that the forthcoming session of the Council of Ministers
   will examine two key issues: first, the initiative aiming to provide
   weapons to the Lebanese Army, and; second, the facts presented by
   Nasrallah accusing Israel in the assassination of former Prime Minister
   Al-Hariri. (1,200 words)

   b. Article by Nabil Bu-Munsif saying that the war of assas sinations in
   Lebanon established the equation of "indictable conviction" with which
   each party sums up its overall vision of the domestic crisis. For five
   years, the 14 March group kept looking for an important question: Why do
   they not believe us when all the proof we have verifies the political
   accusation we made? The 14 March group had a lot of proof to bring an
   indictment. The writer says that Sayyid Hasan Nasrallah succeeded in a
   month and a half in cancelling the first indictment reached by the 8 March
   group, i.e. accusing fundamentalist groups of the assassination, and
   establishing a new indictment against Israel. He did not need to make much
   effort to convince his allies of that. (500 words)

   c. Article by Rajih al-Khuri headlined: "America Is Pushing Lebanon to the
   Iranian Lap," asking: "How long will some sides in the United States
   continue to lead Congress like a blind cow? How long will the subsequent
   administrations in the White Ho use remain a toy in the hands of the
   Zionist lobby, and lured into adopting stupid policies that harm the
   American interests in the Middle East?" According to the writer, these
   questions are raised among Lebanese circles who are following up on the
   Israeli campaign in Congress to prevent the armament of the Lebanese Army.
   The writer says that representative Eric Cantor called for punishing the
   Lebanese Army, ignoring the 7,000 Israeli violations of Resolution 1701.
   According to the writer, this is shameful logic that emerged in Congress
   amid the silence of Obama's administration. The alternative is pushing
   Lebanon to fall into the lap of the Iranian armament offers. (800 words)
   2. Beirut Al-Akhbar Online in Arabic -- Website of Al-Akhbar, a political
   daily espousing Arab nationalist views, pro-resistance, pro-Syria; URL:

   http://www.al-akhbar.com/ www.al-akhbar.com

   a. Report by Hasan Ullayq on the Israeli collaborators and the
   shortcomings of the Intelligen ce Bureau, saying that, in 2006, Hizballah
   handed over to the Intelligence Bureau information about Ghassan al-Jad.
   But the Intelligence Bureau did not arrest him. In May 2009, the Lebanese
   Army Intelligence revealed that Al-Jad collaborates with Israel. But
   Al-Jad escaped to France and the Lebanese Army could not arrest him. The
   writer says that Hizballah gave the Intelligence Bureau information on
   five Israeli collaborators in 2006, but the bureau ignored them. The
   writer says that Al-Jad belongs to the executive group of collaborators,
   as he was tasked with executive missions. The writer says that Defense
   Minister Ilyas al-Murr asked the Lebanese Army Intelligence not to arrest
   Al-Jad before additional information becomes available, but he escaped at
   this time and did not come back. As for collaborator Adib al-Alam, the
   writer says that it was revealed for the Intelligence Bureau that he was
   present in Sin al-Fil near the site of the assassination of Deputy Antoine
   Ghanim when the assassination took place. When asked about the
   coincidence, he said that he was driving his wife to a beauty salon in the
   area. His detained wife said the same, so the investigations stopped at
   this end. The writer says that this is a strange coincidence, as this
   collaborator was tasked by Israel with monitoring Jubayl's coastline
   because it wanted to evacuate one of its officers, two years before Ghanim
   was assassinated. (1,200 words)

   b. Article by Ibrahim al-Amin saying that after the recent address of
   Sayyid Hasan Nasrallah, the 14 March group ignored the facts he relayed,
   and refused any serious discussion that leads to the truth. Just like
   Israel, they considered Nasrallah's words as ridiculous. Israel is afraid
   that Nasrallah's proof would lead to investigations with it, while the 14
   March group is afraid that his proof would uncover the forgery practiced
   by this group and lead to an indictment that does not accuse the
   resistance. (1,100 words)

   c. Article by Muhammad Badir on Israel's reaction to the facts revealed by
   Hizballah Secretary General Sayyid Hasan Nasrallah in his recent press
   conference. The writer says that Israel and the 14 March group tried to
   undermine the facts Nasrallah relayed. Israel's reaction was restricted to
   a statement issued by its Foreign Ministry describing Nasrallah's
   accusations as lies and ridiculous. The writer cites articles and
   commentaries from the Israeli media commenting on Nasrallah's conference.
   (1,000 words)

   d. Article by Abd-al-Kafi al-Samad on the reactions to Hizballah Secretary
   General Sayyid Hasan Nasrallah's press conference. The writer cites a
   Future Movement source saying that "the press conference was devoid of any
   real substance," adding that "I am sad because Nasrallah did not reach any
   result. We expected him to provide clear-cut evidence, but he did
   nothing." Asked why the Future Movement does not wish or accept the fact
   that Israel ass assinated Al-Hariri, he says: "Because Israel did not
   assassinate Rafiq al-Hariri, and because, after Nasrallah's address, I am
   sure that Hizballah was involved in the assassination." (700 words) 3.
   Beirut Al-Safir Online in Arabic -- Website of Al-Safir, independent and
   leftist, espousing Arab nationalist views; URL:

   http://www.assafir.com/ www.assafir.com

   a. Front-page report saying that the domestic cacophony dealing lightly
   and maliciously with Hizballah Secretary General Sayyid Hasan Nasrallah's
   statements did not manage to change the new course taken by the
   accusations, especially since some positions are based on unbending
   stubbornness. Judicial and legal sources asserted to Al-Safir that
   Nasrallah's statements are of the kind that cannot be overlooked or
   marginalized, and that the international investigation commission has to
   take them into consideration and look into them. State Prosecutor Sa'id
   Mirza told Al-Safir that the investigation comm ission is, in principle,
   bound to follow up on the indicators and elements of proof provided by
   Sayyid Hasan Nasrallah. Mirza said that efforts are ongoing to gather
   information about Israeli collaborator Ghassan al-Jad, adding that this
   might take some time. (1,300 words)

   b. Article by Sati Nur-al-Din titled: "Any Country But Not the United
   States," saying that, in Beirut, there is unjustified concern over the
   growing campaign in Congress on the Lebanese Army, a campaign aimed at
   stopping the US support for the army under the pretext that it falls under
   Hizballah's influence. The writer says that the campaign is not only a
   competition among Congress members to win the votes of the Jewish
   Americans. Rather, it is more like an American endeavor to impose new
   conditions on the aid dedicated to the Lebanese Army. The writer says that
   the Al-Udaysah clashes were an Israeli ambush to prove that the behavior
   of the Lebanese Army is unreliable. The writer says that today Congress
   and Israel want to put out a list of instructions as to the role of the
   Lebanese Army, its agenda, and deployment, in a way that goes in line with
   the additional 100 million dollars. The writer concludes by saying that we
   have to replace the US aid with aid from any country in the world, but not
   the United States. (500 words)

   c. Article by Denise Atallah Haddad on the 14 March group's reaction to
   Hizballah Secretary General Sayyid Hasan Nasrallah's press conference. The
   writer cites sources from the Future Movement saying that the conference
   was positive, as Nasrallah made sure to maintain calm and avoid
   escalation. But the source adds that the facts revealed by Nasrallah were
   not new, as we already know that Israel continues to conduct surveillance
   activities in Lebanon, and that we could not see how this is related to
   the assassination of Al-Hariri. Future Movement sources say it is not
   their role to respond to Nasrallah, as "we are not concerne d with
   acquitting Israel. What concerns us is the truth and justice." For his
   part, Lebanese Forces Deputy Antoine Zahra says that "if the sayyid
   expects any Lebanese citizen to try to acquit Israel, he will be
   disappointed. We expected a clear-cut condemnation from him, but he only
   accused Israel based on analysis." (1,000 words)

   d. Article by Nasir al-Sayigh titled: "Was the Sayyid Convincing?" The
   writer says that the sayyid was not convincing, because the proof he
   provided on Israel's involvement in the crime of the assassination of
   Al-Hariri was not convincing for a Lebanese group that did not want to be
   convinced. On the contrary, the sayyid was convincing, since the proof
   will be dealt with by a certain Lebanese group as decisive and final. This
   is because the Lebanese have different convictions. The writer says that
   the proof, although important, does not ascend to the level of concrete
   evidence. But Nasrallah provided new substance fo r a new investigation.
   (800 words) 4. Beirut Al-Diyar Online in Arabic -- Website of Al-Diyar,
   pro-Syria political daily; URL

   http://www.addiyaronline.com/ http://www.addiyaronline.com

   Report saying that President Michel Sulayman asserted to Al-Diyar that he
   is confident the hardships currently endured by Lebanon because of the
   conflict over the Special Tribunal for Lebanon will not lead, as some
   fear, to the deterioration of the situation in the country. Sulayman said:
   "The recent statements regarding a worsening of tension and crises are
   merely prenatal pain." The president said that "no one but Israel has an
   interest in driving the situation to explode." Commenting on some people's
   calls on the government to withdraw Lebanese judges from the Special
   Tribunal and stop providing funding for it, Sulayman said that defiance
   and tense rhetoric will not lead to any acceptable solution; rather, calm
   and reasonable behavior are the appropriate wa y to do it. According to
   available information, Speaker Birri will later on express his stance on
   the tribunal, culminating in an important position to be expressed during
   the commemoration of Imam Musa al-Sadr's disappearance on 31August. (800
   words) 5. Beirut Al-Anwar Online in Arabic -- Website of Al-Anwar,
   moderate, centrist, and independent daily; URL:

   http://www.alanwar.com/ www.alanwar.com

   Article by Rafiq Khuri on Hizballah Secretary General Sayyid Hasan
   Nasrallah's press conference, saying that the evidence and facts provided
   by Nasrallah against Israel open a door that the International
   Investigation Committee kept closed. But no one knows whether or not the
   committee will take Nasrallah's information into account. Moreover, the
   writer adds, the facts given by Nasrallah are accompanied with a political
   analysis based on a theory that contradicts the theory on which the
   international investigation is based. The writer says that it is not easy
   to convin ce everyone regarding what Nasrallah said, and it is not easy to
   cancel the Special Tribunal. But it is clear that Nasrallah scored an
   important goal in the war of the image, and that what he provided reveals
   that Hizballah has a first-class intelligence-security machine. (500
   words) 6. Beirut Al-Liwa Online in Arabic --Website of Al-Liwa, a
   mainstream Sunni political daily;URL:http://www.aliwaa.com.lb

   Report says that three telecommunications experts from the office of
   General Prosecutor Daniel Bellemare started their secret mission in
   following up on the investigations with the suspects who work in the
   telecommunications sector on charges of collaborating with Israel. The
   experts want to make sure whether or not these suspects have fiddled with
   the data and phone calls pertaining to the investigations. (400 words)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   114) Back to Top
   Former President Fox Advocates Legalization of Drugs
   Report by Horacio Jimenez: "Calderon and Fox at Odds Over Legalization of
   Drugs" - EL UNIVERSAL.com.mx
   Thursday August 12, 2010 01:46:54 GMT
   He assured that in his administration "there existed balances that today
   are broken in a fight without limits for drug trafficking markets and
   routes, for control of these markets that now exist and were not there
   before."

   Fox said that "today we are working for the United States, and while they
   do not do their job, in Mexico the Army's image is deteriorating and the
   number of deaths is growing.

   "Also, there is the incredible disinterest and idleness of the United
   States in this area; we have put ourselves to work for them, to be
   suffering here the deaths and the crimes, the cartels though they don't do
   their job in limiting their markets and reducing the transfer of arms and
   bullets and reducing money laundering," Fox said in a radio interview with
   journalist Carlos Loret de Mola.

   In yesterday's edition, El Universal published a proposal made by former
   President Vicente Fox to legalize the production, trading, and
   distribution of drugs and to tax them at high levels.

   "I am not proposing negotiations or anything else like it, I am proposing
   a renewed vision," he said.

   "The violence will be reduced in its intensity and an open market will be
   achieved, a legal market of management, distribution, and sale of drugs,
   of course under well-established rules and order, as was done with
   cigarettes or as has been done with alcohol, and in this manner we will
   depoliticize the issue and attack it at the roots. Prohibition did not
   work at all."

   When the reporter asked the former president why he did not do it, Fox
   said, "We were not in the emergency that we are now. I did not feel that
   it was time."

   Last March businessman Ricardo Salinas Pliego said he proposed legalizing
   drugs to both President Felipe Calderon and Vicente Fox, at the time, and
   they both rejected such a plan to avoid antagonizing the US Government.

   During the interview, Loret de Mola asked Fox if it was true that he did
   not broach the issue of legalization so as not to disturb the United
   States. Fox responded: "I believe that we have to take the risk, as they
   are sitting in the most comfortable chair." Critical Use of Armed Forces

   Former President Fox criticized the use of the Armed Forces in the fight
   against crime."We do not agree. I've never been for the use of the Mexican
   Army for police work. It is neither ready for that, nor does it corresp
   ond to its constitutional responsibility. The image of the Mexican Army is
   deteriorating more and more every day and it is being exposed to more and
   more human rights violations.

   "They should return to their barracks as soon as possible. This work needs
   to be met from within the police force. We must urge and advance toward
   the creation of a single police force quickly."

   Yesterday Fox also defended his proposal on the social networks. In
   response to his readers after the publication of his article: "Drug
   Addiction, Organized Crime, and Safety: Time for Reflection and
   Proposals", on his Centro Fox blog, the former Mexican president pointed
   out that to legalize trade in narcotic drugs "is to bring order and to
   recognize the reality," and is by no means "to attest that drugs are not
   terribly harmful." Ultimately, it is the responsibility of each person to
   decide whether or not to use.

   (Description of Source: Mexico Ci ty EL UNIVERSAL.com.mx in Spanish --
   Website of influential centrist daily; URL http://www.eluniversal.com.mx)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   115) Back to Top
   US Sanctions 'Hurting' ROK's Exports to Iran
   Unattributed article: "U.S. Sanctions Hurting Korea's Exports to Iran" -
   Chosun Ilbo Online
   Thursday August 12, 2010 03:51:29 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Chosun Ilbo Online in English -- English
   website carrying English summaries and full translations of vernacular
   hard copy items of the largest and oldest daily Chosun Ilbo, which is
   conservative in editorial orientation -- strongly nationalistic,
   anti-North Korea, and generally pro-US; URL: http://english.chosun.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   116) Back to Top
   Egyptian-Palestinian summit to be held in Cairo on 12 August - MENA Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 14:57:07 GMT
   Text of report by Egyptian state-run news agency MENA websiteCairo, 11
   August: President Husni Mubarak will hold a bilateral summit in Cairo on
   Thursday (12 August) with Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas to discuss
   the latest developments in the Palestinian arena and the peace process.A
   diplomatic source at the Palestinian Embassy in Cairo said the Palestinian
   leader will post Mubarak on the outcome of his talks in Ramallah on
   Tuesday with US Peace Envoy George Mitchell to push forward the Middle
   East peace process.The two leaders will also review efforts to launch
   direct negotiations with the Israeli side and the Palestinian negotiations
   file.(Description of Source: Cairo MENA Online in English -- Government
   news agency; URL: http://www.mena.org.eg)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   117) Back to Top
   Arab League waiting for US response on direct talks conditions - official
   - MENA Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 13:29:01 GMT
   Text of report by Egyptian state-run news agency MENA websiteCairo, 11
   August: The Arab League is waiting for a US response on the conditions set
   by the Arab Peace Initiative committee for starting Palestinian-Israeli
   direct negotiations, Arab League (AL) Assistant Secretary General Muhammad
   Subayh said Wednesday (11 August).Holding direct negotiations without a
   timetable and with ongoing settlement activities is just for public
   relations, he told reporters.The Arab League backs the stand of
   Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas calling for having guidelines governing
   direct talks, including a timetable, AL Assistant Secretary General
   Mohamed Subayh said.This was the content of the message which the Arab
   Peace Initiative committee sent to US President Barack Obama who is so
   much enthusiastic for holding direct talks, he added.The Israeli response
   to such message is well-known; Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
   wants just to speak about peace while proceeding with wa r practices in
   Gaza and East Jerusalem in addition to Lebanon, he said.Subayh said the
   ball now is in the US' court. Asked if Israeli violations of Lebanon meant
   to wriggle out of the peace process, Subayh said this is the modus
   operandi of Israel when any US official visits the region to push forward
   the peace process.(Description of Source: Cairo MENA Online in English --
   Government news agency; URL: http://www.mena.org.eg)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   118) Back to Top
   Mexico Political Issues 11 Aug 10 - Mexico -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 16:36:54 GMT
   -- Mexico City El Univ ersal reports that President Felipe Calderon
   declared during the fourth session of the Dialogue for Security that if
   the fight against organized crime had been launched four or five years
   earlier, Mexico would be in a better situation today. Calderon's remarks
   came after former President Vicente Fox declared that violence levels were
   lower during his administration, and proposed the legalization of drug
   use, production, distribution, and sales. (Mexico City EL UNIVERSAL.com.mx
   in Spanish -- Website of influential centrist daily; URL

   http://www.eluniversal.com.mx http://www.eluniversal.com.mx ) (OSC is
   translating this article as LAP20100811016003 Mexico: Calderon Hints Fox
   Failed To Act Against Drug Trafficking) Calderon Confident of Victory
   Against Crime, Warns Violence To Continue

   -- Mexico City Reforma reports that President Felipe Calderon warned that
   even though victory would be achieved in the fight against organized
   crime, it would take some time for the violence that affected Mexico to
   disappear. (Mexico City REFORMA.com in Spanish -- Website of major
   center-right daily owned by Grupo Reforma; URL:

   http://www.reforma.com/ http://www.reforma.com/ ) (OSC is translating this
   article as LAP20100811016004 Mexico: Calderon Warns Violence To Continue)
   PRI, PRD Leaders Criticize Political Use of Security Issues

   -- Mexico City El Universal reports that the national leaders of the PRI
   (Institutional Revolutionary Party) and the PRD (Party of the Democratic
   Revolution) criticized what they described as a political, electoral use
   of security issues, as well as political espionage by the government's
   intelligence bodies. Furthermore, the party leaders denied President
   Felipe Calderon's accusation that Mexico's political parties had failed to
   do their part in the fight for security. Interior Secretary Argues Against
   'Petty' Interests Preventing Progress, Security

   -- Mexico City Reforma reports that during the signat ure of a cooperation
   agreement between the Interior Secretariat (Segob) and the Chamber of
   Deputies, Interior Secretary Francisco Blake lamented the persistence of
   "petty" attitudes and "selfish interests" which prevented Mexico's
   progress and security. "Living with greater security, order, respect, and
   harmony should be one of our great objectives as Mexicans, and we will
   only achieve this with a determined commitment that sets the general
   wellbeing ahead of any petty individual or group gains," Blake declared.
   The Interior secretary added that "the insistence on imposing their
   position by those who represent selfish interests has not led to anything
   positive for our country (...)." PRI Deputy Felipe Solis Acero lamented
   the tone of Blake's remarks and declared that they were not conducive to
   political dialogue or agreements between the government and Mexico's
   opposition parties. Legislators Call for Investigation of Corruption in
   PF, Not Punishment for Protesting Agents

   -- Mexico City La Jornada reports that PT (Labor Party) Senator Ricardo
   Monreal Avila, coordinator of his party's Senate benches, defended the
   need for a complete investigation of the Federal Police (PF), after a
   number of agents in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua, protested against the
   alleged corruption of their commanding officers. Monreal added that
   "rather than punishing or disciplining the agents who took part in that
   protest, the authorities should conduct an in-depth investigation."
   Meanwhile, PAN (National Action Party) Senate coordinator Gustavo Madero
   declared that the accusations launched by the PF agents against their
   superiors were already being investigated. (Mexico City La Jornada Online
   in Spanish -- Website of major left-leaning daily, critical of PAN an d
   PRI administrations; URL:

   http://www.jornada.unam.mx http://www.jornada.unam.mx ) Editorials &amp;amp;
   Commentary: Centrist Daily Sees PAN as Loser o f Spat Between Calderon,
   Fox

   -- An editorial in Mexico City El Universal declares that during the
   Vicente Fox administration, "the dismantling of the Mexican State's
   institutions" and the increasing power of organized crime gathered pace,
   and it argues that President Felipe Calderon has a point when he complains
   of the situation that he inherited from his predecessor in this area.
   Nevertheless, the editorial argues that with Fox expressing increasingly
   vocal criticism of his successor's security strategy, the party to which
   they both belong -- the PAN -- stands to lose, with the PRI sure to
   exploit these differences between the current and former presidents.
   Commentator Sees Political Agreements as Possible Outcome of Dialogue on
   Security

   -- A commentary by Jorge Fernandez Menendez in Mexico City Excelsior
   affirms that few substantial changes are possible to the current strategy
   in the fight against organized crime, and he argues that the best possibl
   e outcome of President Felipe Calderon's Dialogue for Security with
   political and social leaders will be political agreements, which would
   allow a more effective implementation of the current strategy. As an
   example, Fernandez Menendez declares that the proposed unification of
   police forces will only be possible through political agreements, which
   will allow the authorities to override the opposition of municipal
   governments to this measure. The commentator goes on to defend the need
   for "absolute pragmatism" to reach any agreements in this area. (Mexico
   City EXonline in Spanish -- Website of major right-of-center daily
   Excelsior owned by Grupo Imagen; URL

   http://www.exonline.com.mx http://www.exonline.com.mx ) Commentator Sees
   US Factors as Flaws of Mexico's Security Strategy

   -- A commentary by Jose Antonio Crespo in Mexico City Excelsior argues
   that "one of the most serious errors of (the Mexican Government's) current
   strategy against drug traf ficking cartels has been to base its possible
   success (...) on variables that are outside of our government's control
   (...)." Crespo affirms that while there are many measures that Mexico can
   take -- including cleaning up its police forces, tackling corruption among
   its public officials, improving its customs system, etc. -- there is
   nothing that the country can do to reduce demand for drugs in the United
   States, to impose stricter gun laws in that country, or to act against the
   cartels operating north of the border. Crespo affirms that the United
   States has "powerful political and social reasons" which prevent it from
   taking effective action in these areas, and he argues that "if the success
   of our strategy depends (on US action), then let us declare it a failure."

   The following media were scanned and no file-worthy items were noted:

   (Mexico City Milenio.com in Spanish -- Website of independent, centrist
   daily owned by Grupo Editorial Milenio; URL:

   http://www.milenio.com/ http://www.milenio.com/ )

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   119) Back to Top
   Cosmetics Sales Soar on 'sample Marketing' - JoongAng Daily Online
   Thursday August 12, 2010 01:10:04 GMT
   (JOONGANG ILBO) - As more wealthy Koreans travel overseas, common sense
   might predict a fall in department store sales of cosmetics as duty-free
   shops cut into the market. Yet just the opposite is taking place, with
   cosmetics booths within department stores showing double-digit on-year
   growth.

   Shinsegae Department Store saw the fastest rise in cosmetics sales, at
   15.9 percent on-year, followed by Lotte and Hyundai at 14.9 and 10.2
   percent, respectively.Industry experts credit the results the large
   numbers of product samples given out to customers.The study conducted by
   the JoongAng Ilbo and the cosmetics buyer at Hyundai Department Store
   determined the top six best-selling imported cosmetics products, and the
   number of free samples given out on average with purchase. The results
   were quite surprising. When a customer bought a 98,000 won ($83) set of
   Lancome Genifique Yeux Eye Concentrate, five samples worth 92,000 won were
   provided. The price at duty-free shops was found to be $64 on average,
   with no samples. A Biotherm UV Supra D-Tox set, sold at department stores
   for 48,000 won, came with free samples worth 38,000 won, while the same
   set without samples cost $36 at duty-free.The generous giveaways are even
   attracting Chinese tourists."An increasing number of Chinese visitors are
   purchasing cosmetics at department stores after comparing the value with
   duty-free shops," said Moon Tae-hoon, a cosmetics representative at
   Hyundai's Apgujeong branch. "Chinese visitors are very happy since samples
   are not provided in China even if many products are purchased."Samples are
   also given out in other regions such as the United States, Europe and Hong
   Kong, but only in very small amounts. "Sample marketing" on this scale
   seems to be unique to Korea.(Description of Source: Seoul JoongAng Daily
   Online in English -- Website of English-language daily which provides
   English-language summaries and full-texts of items published by the major
   center-right daily JoongAng Ilbo, as well as unique reportage; distributed
   as an insert to the Seoul edition of the International Herald Tribune;
   URL: http://joongangdaily.joins.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding u se may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   120) Back to Top
   Hyundai Sonata Earns Top Rating From US Consumer Reports - Chosun Ilbo
   Online
   Thursday August 12, 2010 01:21:11 GMT
   (CHOSUN ILBO) - Hyundai Motor's redesigned Sonata was selected as a
   top-rated family sedan by Consumer Reports in its New Car Preview 2011
   published on Monday. The car appeared on the cover of the U.S. magazine, a
   first for a Korean auto.

   "The Sonata has agile handling, a steady ride, good accommodations,
   easy-to-use controls, and impressive performance and fuel economy for the
   class," the independent consumer watchdog said.Hyundai was also named
   among "the top five most considered brands by new car shoppers" in a
   survey by Kelley Blue Book, pushing aside Nissan to join the list for the
   first time. Ford topped the list, followed by Toyota, Chevrolet and
   Honda.The survey by KBB, one of the most trusted auto buying guides in the
   U.S., was conducted between April and June on 3,000 consumers.(Description
   of Source: Seoul Chosun Ilbo Online in English -- English website carrying
   English summaries and full translations of vernacular hard copy items of
   the largest and oldest daily Chosun Ilbo, which is conservative in
   editorial orientation -- strongly nationalistic, anti-North Korea, and
   generally pro-US; URL: http://english.chosun.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   121) Back to Top
   Pan-Arab Writer: Arguments Against Ground Zero Mosque Stinks of Propagan
   da
   Commentary by Husam Itani: "The Mosque at Ground Zero" - Al-Hayah Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 11:06:42 GMT
   (Description of Source: London Al-Hayah Online in English -- Website of
   influential Saudi-owned London pan-Arab daily. URL:
   http://www.daralhayat.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   122) Back to Top
   Palestinian Press 10 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from the Palestinian press on 10 Aug.
   To request additional processing, or for assistance with multimedia
   elements, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735; or fax (703)
   613-5735. - West Bank &amp;amp; Gaza Strip -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 10:39:42 GMT
   Leadership Expects Mitchell Today To Bring US Administration's Reply to
   Letter of Arab Follow-up Committee

   Jerusalem: Israeli Bulldozers Starts Demolition of Hundreds of Graves in
   Ma'man Allah Cemetery

   Nasrallah Shows 'Evidence' and "Not Final Evidence Accusing Israel of
   Being Involved in Al-Hariri's Assassination

   Netanyahu Defends Assault on Freedom Flotilla and Alleges That Israel Has
   Moved According to International Law

   Front page of Ramallah Al-Hayah al-Jadidah (Electronic Edition) in Arabic
   -- PA-owned daily, supportive of the presidency; URL:
   http://www.alhayat-j.com, on 10 August:

   Abbas: We Are Waiting for US Response During Meeting With Mitchell Today

   Netanyahu Declares Before "Terkel Committee" that He Bears Full
   Responsibility for Attack on Freedom Flotil la

   Abbas Lays Wreath of Flowers on Tomb of Poet Darwish in Memory of His
   Death

   UN's Ki-moon Denies Presence of Secret Deal in Probe Into Freedom Flotilla

   Front page of Jerusalem Al-Quds in Arabic -- independent, largest
   circulation, pro-Fatah daily; URL: http://www.alquds.com, on 10 August:

   President Abu-Mazin (Mahmud Abbas): We Are Subject to Unprecedented
   Pressures, We Will Not Dissolve PA, But It Could Collapse, if Cutting Aid
   Continues

   Cabinet Denounces Ongoing Israeli Violations in Jerusalem and West Bank;
   Company's Commitment to Fair Collection System Is Key To Solve Gaza's
   Power Crisis

   Popular Move To Confront Foreign Pressures Seeking To Impose Direct
   Negotiations According to Israeli Conditions

   Domestic Affairs Al-Quds

   on page 18 runs a 700-word editorial under the title "The Significance of
   Medical Development." Al-Quds hails Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas's
   inauguration of the Palestine Medica l Complex in Ramallah. Al-Quds views
   such step "as an extremely important step," seeking to alleviate the
   suffering of the Palestinian citizens." Al-Quds also praises "the generous
   donation" extended by Bahrain and Kuwait for supporting a number of
   complex hospitals. Al-Quds goes on to say that this medical complex "is a
   source of pride among the achievements of the Palestinian Authority (PA),
   and the efforts of construction, rebuilding, and developing in all domains
   should continue, despite all challenges and Israeli practices." Al-Quds
   publishes another title "The Documents Shown by Sayyid Nasrallah." In this
   context, Al-Quds discusses the news conference held by Hizballah Secretary
   General Hasan Nasrallah on 9 August in which Nasrallah revealed documents
   pertaining to the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq
   al-Hariri in 2005, and Israeli role in the assassination. Al-Quds calls
   for forming an international co mmittee which should be required to
   "question Israel over its potential role in the crime" of Al-Hariri's
   assassination, so that "suspicions should not still surround Lebanese or
   Syrian parties."

   In his 1,500-word daily column "The Pulse of Life," under the title "HAMAS
   and Concocted Crisis," on page 22 of Al-Hayah al-Jadidah, Adil
   Abd-al-Rahman attacks the HAMAS Movement for concocting the issue of power
   outage in the Gaza Strip, through inciting against the PA and accusing it
   of being behind the crisis. Abd-al-Rahman opines that "the electricity
   crisis in the Gaza Strip is a concocted and exposed crisis before
   Palestinian citizen in the Gaza Strip, because he has realized after his
   bitter experience with HAMAS that the HAMAS leadership is spreading lies
   and falsehoods against the national legitimacy, in general, and the
   government of Dr Salam Fayyad, in particular." Abd-al-Rahman adds that
   HAMAS, through this " concocted crisis," is seeking to "create the gap"
   between Palestinian citizens and PA, "avoid implementing the requirements
   of national reconciliation through exaggerating PA mistakes," and entrench
   "the option of the Taliban-style Emirate" in the Strip. Abd-al-Rahman says
   further that "the time has come for HAMAS to stop its games and move
   forward focusing its attentions on achieving the national reconciliation,
   because it is the natural reaction at the serious crimes and violations of
   the Israeli occupation." In closing, Abd-al-Rahman urges the political
   forces and civil society institutions in Gaza, Palestinian territories,
   and Diaspora to "press the HAMAS Movement" to work on achieving the
   national reconciliation."

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NT IS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   123) Back to Top
   Malaysia Chinese Press 11 Aug 10
   The following lists selected reports carried in Malaysia's Chinese press
   on 11 August; to request additional processing, contact the OSC Customer
   Center at (800) 205-8615 or OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Malaysia -- OSC
   Summary
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 10:07:47 GMT
   2. Unattributed report entitled "Malaysian Bar Council Wants Royal
   Commission To Probe Into Loophole in Prosecution Mechanism Over Teoh's
   Inquest." The Malaysian Bar Council has again appealed for the calling of
   a Royal Commission of Enquiry to probe into the death of political aide
   Teoh Beng Hock after the Attorney General Office produced new evidence
   toward the end of Teoh's Inquest. In a statement, Bar Council President
   Ragunath said that the commission should also look into the shortcomings
   of Malaysia's criminal justice system. (p 11; 400 words) Petaling Jaya
   Nanyang Siang Pau in Chinese -- One of Malaysia's oldest Chinese dailies.
   Provides wide coverage of both domestic and international news. Per Audit
   Bureau of Circulations data, Nanyang Siang Pau has a circulation of
   114,049. It was acquired by timber tycoon Tiong Hiew King in 2007. Prior
   to 2007 it was owned by the ruling coalition component party Malaysian
   Chinese Association (MCA).

   3. Article by Zhang Jin Wei entitled "Consequence of US, China, and
   Vietnam Involvement in South China Sea Sovereignty Dispute." The writer, a
   China affair commentator, opines that it is dangerous move for the United
   States trying to use Vietnam to contain China. (p A9; 800 words) Kuala
   Lumpur Oriental Daily News in Chinese -- One of the few remaining Chinese
   dailies not under control of timber tycoon Tiong Hiew King. Provides
   independent views on do mestic political issues and has emerged as one of
   the strongest critics of the government. Per Audit Bureau of Circulations
   data, Oriental Daily News has a circulation of 102,802

   4. Unattributed report entitled "US Investor Earle M. Jorgensen To Setup
   Steel Distribution Center in Johor's Iskandar Development Region." In a
   simple launch of its Steel Distribution Center in Johor, Earle M.
   Jorgensen regional manager for Asia said that his company planned to use
   Malaysia as its base to explore potential Asian market particularly the
   market in China and Vietnam. (p A13; 400 words)

   5. Report by Lam Chi Fong entitled "Late Announcement by Attorney General
   Office of Teoh's Personal Note in Teoh's Inquest Triggers Explosive
   Controversial in Malaysia's Judiciary, Enforcement Operations." This
   report discusses the late announcement of Teoh's "note" by the Attorney
   General Office for the Teoh's Inquest and its impact on the Malaysian
   society, judiciary and enforcement operations. (p A4; 1,500 words) China
   Press in Chinese -- Carries general domestic and political news. Along
   with sister publication Nanyang Siang Pau, it came under timber tycoon
   Tiong Hiew King's media empire in 2007. Per Audit Bureau of Circulations
   data, China Press has a circulation of 231,539.Bureau of Circulations
   data, Oriental Daily News has a circulation of 102,802.

   6. Unattributed report entitled "Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) To Go for
   Direct Party Election for First Time." At a press meeting, PKR Deputy
   President Syed Husin said for the first time, the PKR will hold direct
   election. Approximately 400,000 PKR members will pick their national
   leaders through an eight-day staggered election in October and November.
   (p A6; 400 words) Penang Kwong Wah Jit Poh in Chinese -- Oldest Chinese
   daily in Malaysia. Focuses mainly on news from northern peninsular
   Malaysia. Along with Oriental Daily News it is one of the few Chinese dail
   ies not under timber tycoon Tiong Hiew King's control. Per Audit Bureau of
   Circulations data, Kwong Wah Jit Poh has a circulation of 71,350.

   Negative Selection Petaling Jaya Malaysiakini in Chinese --
   Chinese-language version of the leading alternative online news portal
   owned by Mkini Dotcom. Offers independent news and views, focusing mainly
   on political issues. Often features exclusive interviews with leading
   opposition and government figures. Exact readership unknown; URL:
   http://www.malaysiakini.com

   Negative Selection

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   124) Back to Top
   Chinese Air Force in Night Drill Over West Sea - Chosun Ilbo Online
   Thursday August 12, 2010 00:45:47 GMT
   (CHOSUN ILBO) - Chinese fighter jets took part in an unprecedented night
   flight drill recently over the West Sea preparing for a U.S. air raid.

   Quoting the Chinese People's Liberation Army Daily, the South China
   Morning Post on Wednesday reported fighter jets from the North China Sea
   Fleet took off from the Liaodong and Shandong peninsulas for a night drill
   over Bohai Gulf.The drill lasted about two hours in the early morning.
   "Data collected from night flying will help our army to cope with combined
   operations on modern battlefields," the PLA Daily commented."The air
   division is equipped with new generation fighter jets," the daily added
   without specifying the number and model.The Hong Kong daily quoted Ni
   Lexiong, a Shanghai-based security expert and retired general, as saying
   the drill "had also been part of an escalating response to joint U.
   S.-South Korea military drills in the Yellow (West) Sea." He said the
   Chinese military wants to send a message "that it is also capable of
   dealing with night attacks."(Description of Source: Seoul Chosun Ilbo
   Online in English -- English website carrying English summaries and full
   translations of vernacular hard copy items of the largest and oldest daily
   Chosun Ilbo, which is conservative in editorial orientation -- strongly
   nationalistic, anti-North Korea, and generally pro-US; URL:
   http://english.chosun.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   125) Back to Top
   Tehran Calls Countries That Support UN Security Council Sanctions 'Losers'
   Article by Vladislav Vorobyev: "Tehran Finds 'Losers'" (Rossiyskaya Gazeta
   Online) - Rossiyskaya Gazeta Online
   Thursday August 12, 2010 02:50:58 GMT
   The reason for the diplomatic "shoot-out" was the statement by IAEA
   representative Jill Tudor, who announced: "Tehran has violated the UN
   Security Council resolution." In her words, on 17 July in the Iranian
   center in Natanz, international experts registered the operation of two
   cascades comprised of 164 linked centrifuges. Yet, as Tudor recalled, the
   Security Council had instructed Iran to suspend activity associated with
   enrichment.

   "There is nothing new about the fact that certain circles are trying to
   raise a fuss over this question," the official representative of the
   Iranian MFA, Ramin Mehmanparast, did everything he could to calm the
   situation. "In February of this year, the president (Mahmud Ahmadinejad -
   Ro ssiyskaya Gazeta) announced that, since Iran had not been given fuel
   for the research reactor in Iran, we ourselves will begin work on
   enriching uranium to 20 percent in Natanz. There is nothing to add to
   this."

   But the attempt to calm the situation clearly did not work. Evidently that
   is why Mehmanparast found something to add. Furthermore, he did so by
   going outside the scope of diplomatic protocol. We do not know whether he
   coordinated his further statements with the country's supreme leadership,
   or whether he had verbalized what he had previously heard many times at
   meetings with participation of Iran's political leaders. In any case, what
   journalists heard next did not remain unnoticed in many world capitals.
   And first and foremost in Moscow and Beijing.

   According to announcements of world information agencies, Mehmanparast
   called the countries that support the sanctions "losers," emphasizing that
   the states that are participating in t his "political game" will deprive
   themselves of access to the Iranian market. That is, at the official MFA
   level in Tehran, they consider "losers" to be, among others, Russia and
   China, which also supported the Security Council sanctions. In other
   words, having driven itself into a diplomatic corner, now Tehran is trying
   to find others to blame for its problems. And it has thought of nothing
   better to do than to accuse of all sins specifically those states that had
   tried to defend the national interests of Iran to the last.

   The response to the statement of the clearly irate Iranian MFA came from
   Washington. "There is no justification for Iran's continuing to enrich
   uranium to a level of 20 percent," said the official US State Department
   representative, Philip Crowley. "Iran really is not fulfilling its
   international obligations... Iran must take a more constructive position
   and cooperate with the IAEA. And this time, the term "must" already sounds
   precise not only in English, but in all of the other languages of the UN
   Security Council members.

   (Description of Source: Moscow Rossiyskaya Gazeta Online in Russian --
   Website of government daily newspaper; URL: http://rg.ru/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   126) Back to Top
   ROK Editorial Comments on Status of ROK-US FTA
   Editorial: "Politics Behind Trade -- US could suffer big loss, going after
   small gain" - The Korea Times Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 14:16:39 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul The Korea Times Online in English -- Web
   site of The Korea Times, an independent and moderate English-language
   daily published by its sister daily Hanguk Ilbo from which it often draws
   articles and translates into English for publication; URL:
   http://www.koreatimes.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   127) Back to Top
   Hyundai Heavy Industries To Build World's Largest Photovoltaic Plant
   Report by Jong-wook Park and Su-hyun Song: "Hyundai Heavy Ind. to Build
   World's Largest Photovoltaic Plant" - MK English News Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 08:33:16 GMT
   Through the contract, the HHI has become the first Korean busin ess to
   make inroads into the U.S. photovoltaic market. The HHI will build two
   photovoltaic plants in Arizona, a 150-megawatt plant in Dragoon and
   another 25-megawatt plant in Cochise, totaling 175 megawatts in capacity.
   The Dragoon plant, in particular, is going to be the largest single
   photovoltaic plant in the world.The construction project in the state of
   Arizona is part of a large photovoltaic project that is run by Matinee
   Energy to build photovoltaic plants in 15 regions of California and
   Arizona, achieving a total capacity of 900 megawatts by late 2012. The
   U.S. government provides $ 1.3 billion in subsidy and extra tax reliefs,
   and JP Morgan Securities Inc. will secure finance for the entire
   project.The HHI, which began receiving orders actively from March, won the
   contract beating top-rate photovoltaic companies from Germany and China.
   The company, as an Engineering Procurement Construction (EPC) contractor,
   will be in charge of everything from engineering, installa tion to trial
   operation of the new plants. Solar modules, the essential incorporating
   part of a photovoltaic plant will be produced and delivered in the HHI
   photovoltaic plant located in Eumsung, North Chungcheong province.

   (Description of Source: Seoul MK English News Online in English -- Website
   of the English subsite of the leading economic daily Maeil Kyo'ngje (Daily
   Economy) published by "Maeil Business Newspaper &amp;amp; MK Inc."; URL:
   http://news.mk.co.kr/english/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   128) Back to Top
   Philippine Palace Ready To Resume Talks With MILF 'Without Preconditions'
   Report by Jam Sisante with RSJ and KBK, GMANews.TV: "Palace: N o
   preconditions in resumption of talks with MILF" - GMA News.TV
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 07:47:35 GMT
   The Philippine government is ready to resume peace talks without
   preconditions with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) after the
   Ramadan, Palace spokesman Edwin Lacierda said Tuesday.

   Lacierda said the government hopes the MILF, which has expressed
   disapproval over the continued stay of US troops in Mindanao, will not set
   preconditions before it returns to the negotiating table.

   "Sabi po ng Pangulo magsisimula tayo ng peace process pagkatapos ng
   Ramadan. Wala po kaming preconditions, sana naman wag nilang gawing
   precondition yung sinasabi nilang US presence sa (Mindanao) (The president
   said peace talks will resume after the Ramadan. We don't have
   preconditions, so we hope they won't use as a precondition the removal of
   US troops in Mindanao)," he said at a press briefing.

   MILF chairman Ibrahim Murad was recently quoted in reports as saying that
   the presence of US soldiers in Mindanao only complicates the situation in
   the conflict-ridden region.

   In his first State of the Nation Address (SONA), President Benigno
   "Noynoy" Aquino III said peace negotiations with the MILF can resume after
   the Ramadan, the Islamic month of fasting which begins on August 11 and
   ends on September 9.

   University of the Philippines College of Law dean Marvic Leonen, an expert
   on ancestral domain issues, has been designated to head the government
   panel that will negotiate with the MILF. Other members of the panel have
   yet to be named.

   Lacierda said he will leave it up to Peace Adviser Teresita Deles to
   decide whether to retain Malaysia as a third-party facilitator in the
   peace talks. Talks started 1997

   The Philippine government has been holding talks with the MILF since 1997,
   during the time of former Pre sident Fidel Ramos. During the short-lived
   Estrada administration, talks were virtually non-existent as the
   government waged an all-out war campaign against the secessionist group,
   resulting in the seizure of major and satellite camps of the MILF across
   Central Mindanao.

   Talks resumed during the Arroyo administration, but peace efforts were
   jeopardized in late 2008 when the Supreme Court barred the signing -- and
   eventually ruled as unconstitutional -- of a memorandum of agreement on
   ancestral domain between the government and the MILF expanding the
   Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao. The junking of the MOA-AD triggered
   violent acts from a faction of the MILF.

   Subsequent discussions between the government and the Moro secessionists,
   however, resulted in an agreement to continue talks under the next
   administration.

   (Description of Source: Quezon City GMA News.TV in English -- Official
   website of GMA News and Public Affairs; carries national, regional, a nd
   business news and news videos from GMA 7 and sister TV station QTV.
   Targeted at Filipinos nationwide and overseas; URL: http://www.gmanews.tv)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   129) Back to Top
   US Immigration Using Incoming Children To Arrest Illegal Poles
   Report by Wojciech Lorenz: "US Border Services Treat Polish Childen as
   Hostages" - rp.pl
   Thursday August 12, 2010 00:24:37 GMT
   airports in order to force their relatives who are staying in the United
   States illegally to turn themselves over to the authorities.

   Such incidents have occurred twice. On 02 July, officials a t New York's
   Newark airport detained the six-year-old Julia K., who flew in under the
   care of stewardesses. Although her aunt and uncle were waiting for her,
   immigration officials demanded that the child should be collected by her
   father, illegally residing in the United States. They threatened that
   otherwise the child would be sent to a youth detention center in Texas.
   The father turned up at the airport together with his lawyer. He collected
   his child, but will most likely be deported to Poland.

   At the same airport on 28 July, officials detained the 12-year-old
   Ewelina, whose parents sent her to summer camp in Pennsylvania. However,
   officials did not consent for her to be collected by a friend of the
   family. In their opinion, the only one who had the right to do so was her
   30-year-old brother, who had illegally prolonged his stay in the United
   States. This time, as well, they threatened to send their child to a youth
   center. But the brother did not give in and did n ot show up at the
   airport. The efforts to free the young girl took 10 hours.

   "My daughter was treated well, but the adults were threatened with the
   prospect that the child would be sent to a center. She was released only
   when I authorized the consul to collect her. Ultimately they did turn her
   over to the person who had been waiting for her from the beginning,"
   Rzeczpospolita is told by Krzysztof K., Ewelina's father.

   The Polish Consulate in New York filed a protest with the State
   Department. "We respect the issue of US immigration law, but we cannot
   allow children to be used to blackmail members of their families and to
   lure them to the airport. Especially in the latter case the officials
   definitely went too far, because the child's brother is not her legal
   guardian and no one had the right to summon him," Rzeczpospolita is told
   by Consul Marek Skulimowski.

   The US State Department has not yet reacted. US Customs and Border
   Protection explains that it acts in the interests of the children. "We do
   not want to torment anyone, but we have a duty to make sure that a child
   is turned over to its rightful guardians. If a child is meant to be picked
   up by someone else, the child has to have an official document confirming
   their identity," we are told by John Saleh from US Customs and Border
   Protection.

   Ewelina's father stressed that he would have no complaint if the point
   were to check whether a child might be illegally transported across the
   border. But his child was being used to exert pressure on a family member.
   "I appeal to the parents of children traveling to the United States alone
   to make sure that they are carrying the proper authorization for those who
   pick them up. That will enable them to avoid such traumatic experiences,"
   he says.

   Poland is the only country belonging to the Schengen zone whose citizens
   have to hold US visas. The main reason for this is the high rate of
   rejected visa applications. US authorities also suggest that many Poles
   illegally prolong their stay in the United States, although they are not
   able to measure that precisely.

   (Description of Source: Warsaw rp.pl in Polish -- Website of
   Rzeczpospolita, center-right political and economic daily, partly owned by
   state; widely read by political and business elites; paper of record;
   often critical of Civic Platform and sympathetic to Kaczynski brothers;
   URL: http://www.rzeczpospolita.pl)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   130) Back to Top
   Afghan Police Issues July 2010
   The following OSC Summary provides a summary of monitored media coverage
   on Afghan police issues during July 2010; for assistance with multimedia
   elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. -
   Afghanistan -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 13:57:54 GMT
   M

   131) Back to Top
   Hyundai Heavy Inks US$700 Mln Solar Power Plant Deal - Yonhap
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 06:28:28 GMT
   Hyundai Heavy-solar power plant

   Hyundai Heavy inks US$700 mln solar power plant dealSEOUL, Aug. 11
   (Yonhap) -- Hyundai Heavy Industries Co., South Korea's top shipbuilder,
   said Wednesday it has signed a US$700 million contract to build solar
   power plants in the United States.Under the agreement with the U.S.-based
   Matinee Energy Inc., Hyundai Heavy will build two solar power plants in
   Arizona th at generate 150 megawatts and 25 megawatts of energy,
   respectively.The plants are slated to be completed by the end of 2012, the
   company said, adding that the 150-megawatt plant will be the biggest solar
   power plant in the world.According to Hyundai Heavy, the solar modules for
   the new plants will be manufactured at the company's plant in Eumseong,
   131 kilometers south of Seoul."This will be an opportunity for Hyundai
   Heavy to become a global solar power firm. The company will strive to win
   solar power plant deals in the U.S. as well as Europe and Asia," said Kim
   Kweon-tae, a Hyundai Heavy executive.Hyundai Heavy has been in talks with
   the U.S. energy group since April to take part in a project to build solar
   power plants in Arizona and California to generate a combined 900
   megawatts of energy.The move comes as the leading shipbuilder is seeking
   to diversify its business portfolio by tapping into the renewable energy
   sector. In 2008, the company completed the const ruction of its first
   solar-cell plant, which generates 30 megawatts of power
   annually.(Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial
   news agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   132) Back to Top
   Iran's President Hails Economic Progress - Vision of the Islamic Republic
   of Iran Network 1
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 14:49:04 GMT
   economic dynamism in the country and said: Today Iran is on track to
   progress in a manner in which there is a national celebration for our
   achievements every week.

   Mr Ahmadinezhad added that there ar e many industrial projects that wait
   months to be inaugurated.The president said that certain enemies'
   ill-conduct will increase the country's determination for progress.The
   president also congratulated the people on the start of Ramadan and told
   the world Muslims that this month is the best opportunity to prepare
   oneself for a joyous year and to move towards progress.(Description of
   Source: Tehran Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1 in Persian
   -- state-run national television, officially controlled by the office of
   the supreme leader)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   133) Back to Top
   ROK To 'Take Time' To Decide Whether To Seek Sanctions on Iran
   Yonhap headline: &amp; quot;S. Korea to Take Time to Decide Whether to Seek
   Sanctions on Iran: Senior Source" - Yonhap
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 06:00:09 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   134) Back to Top
   Iran regional conference a move against USA, says Afghan analyst - Pajhwok
   Afghan News
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 12:30:13 GMT
   analyst

   Text of report in English by Afghan independent Pajh wok news agency
   websiteKabul: A regional conference on Afghanistan to be hosted by Iran is
   just another way of Tehran exerting its influence in the country, several
   analysts said on Wednesday (11 August).Iran on Tuesday announced it would
   host a regional meeting on stabilizing Afghanistan. It did not give a date
   or say which countries had been invited, however the announcement comes
   just days after the second vice-president made a trip to Iran.However,
   some analysts say the conference is unlikely to break any new ground as it
   is just an attempt by Iran to interfere in Afghanistan's domestic affairs
   and make problems for the West. "Iran wants to create obstacles for
   America by holding this conference," Abdol Ghafor Liwal, head of the
   Centre for Regional Studies, said."As Iran has been working on a dangerous
   cultural intervention, I do not trust that the conference will be held,"
   he said, but he did not clarify the cultural intervention.Even as the
   Iranian government is under pressure from the international community to
   give up its nuclear ambitions, it has been trying to undermine the West by
   meddling in Afghanistan's affairs, political science professor at Kabul
   University, Nasrollah Stanakzai, said.He said the Afghans know the Iranian
   government very well and the regional conference was likely to be
   ineffective. However, a professor of economics, Masud, said Iran was
   trying to become a diplomatic broker in the region by hosting similar
   conferences. While Iran was using such conferences for its own benefit,
   Afghan officials should do likewise, he said.Masud also cautioned
   Afghanistan about relying too heavily on international or regional
   partners."Afghanistan's problems should be solved at the regional level.
   It has been proven that America and its allies failed to solve the
   problems in the region as they did in Iraq," Iranian President Mahmud
   Ahmadinezhad said last week.Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki,
   in a speech at the Kabul Conference in July, also insisted Afghanistan's
   conflict could only be solved at the regional level.(Description of
   Source: Kabul Pajhwok Afghan News in English -- independent news agency)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
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   135) Back to Top
   HK Column: PRC 'Kills Two Birds With One Stone' By Importing US Corns
   To request additional processing, contact the OSC Customer Center at (800)
   205-8615 or OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Ching Chi Jih Pao
   Thursday August 12, 2010 02:46:25 GMT
   (Description of Source: Hong Kong Ching Chi Jih Pao in Chinese -- "Hong
   Kong Economic Ti mes," non-PRC-owned economic daily with good sources in
   the PRC and a slightly pro-Beijing editorial line)Attachments:ccjp0812.pdf

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   136) Back to Top
   Iran paper outlines leaders' response to US military threat - Jomhuri-ye
   Eslami Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 10:39:14 GMT
   Text of unattributed report headlined "Overwhelming response of Iran to
   American military threat" published by Iranian newspaper Jomhuri-ye Eslami
   on 4 AugustThe threatening remark by the US Chairman of Joint Chiefs of
   Staff Michael Mullen on the readiness of a plan for milita ry attack on
   Iran was followed by a serious and definite reaction of Iranian political
   and military officials.Iran's Minister of Foreign Affairs (Manuchehr
   Mottaki) has stressed that if the US takes any measures against Iran, it
   will experience a more pitiable fate than the one it has experienced in
   Iraq or Afghanistan. He has said: America should not put its dignity up
   for auction.Mottaki added: They have been making such remarks for a long
   time. They went to some places, about which they made (such) remarks.
   However, what we see is their fate (as written).He added: If they take any
   measures against Iran, their fate will be worse than the total of the
   pitiable experiences they had in Iraq and Afghanistan.Talking to Al-Alam
   TV channel, Mottaki stated: We think there are still some wise people in
   America who will think and investigate and will not put the American
   dignity up for auction.Regarding Michael Mullen's remark on attack on
   Iran, Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs' S pokesperson Ramin Mehmanparast
   also said: Remarks by American military officials cannot be proven. We
   witness many remarks by them, which are not thought out properly. We
   believe the reason for such remarks is a kind of anger due to successive
   failures in achieving their goals and their military campaigns in the
   region. They have had no outcome but that of creating more insecurity and
   more loss for innocent people and their forces. Therefore, creation of a
   negative atmosphere results from a psychological and propaganda war, which
   they intend to take advantage of. However, no one pays attention to such
   remarks.Maj-Gen Salehi: Army's threefold forces are completely ready
   against threatsIran's Army Commander-in-Chief (Maj-Gen Ata'ollah Salehi)
   also stressed that the army's threefold forces are completely ready to
   face threats. He said: The sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic with
   regard to inspection of ships, are definitely not acceptable to
   us.According to (not mentione d), during the sidelines of his visit to
   Region 1 of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army's Marine Forces in Bandar
   Abbas, Maj-Gen A'taollah Salehi told journalists: The main goal of this
   trip is to observe the latest progress in repair and reconstruction of
   surface and subsurface ships and also the submarine that will be set on
   the sea in the upcoming 10 days.He added: We have been seafaring in
   far-off regions for more than a year now, therefore, we should have the
   power to control, administer and command in the far-off regions.Salehi
   remarked: Equipping flotillas with domestic apparatus, which is both
   domestically-made and up-to-date, has made us hopeful about being able to
   increase our stay in far-off waters.He pointed that the army's threefold
   force is completely ready against threats, adding: Over the past three
   years, the army forces have improved considerably. Their missions now take
   place from coastal waters (presumably of the Persian Gulf) to war-off
   waters of Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean.Salehi further said: The imposed
   sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, with regard to inspection
   of ships, are definitely not acceptable to the Islamic Republic. In Iran's
   view, Somali pirates do not differ from the American ones.Salehi added:
   All the 25 countries that are carrying out missions in far-off waters
   function under one union, so they use each other's facilities and
   ports.Commander Purdastan: American soldiers will surrender with smallest
   flickCommander of Iranian Army's Ground Forces (Brig-Gen Ahmad Reza
   Purdastan) said: Today, the enemy has failed in solving many of its
   problems and does not have the power to bear, resist or open another
   front. American soldiers will surrender with the smallest flick.According
   to Fars (News Agency), at the conference of iron fortresses (as published)
   held at Imam Ali Military University and attended by the commanders of
   Ground Forces Battalions, Commander Ahmad Reza Purdastan said that after
   its d efeat in the hard warfare front, the enemy has opened the soft
   warfare front against us.He said: The enemy has aimed at our youths in the
   soft warfare and is trying to fulfil its goals and plans, through some
   methods.Purdastan added: The enemy is providing grounds for creating
   pessimism towards the system among the youths and is creating unrest and
   protests in the country. We should be good trustees for our soldiers and
   sons. We should reinforce the youths' beliefs and faith by providing
   cultural plans and constructive solutions.The army's Ground Forces
   commander stated: Today, the enemy has failed in solving many of its
   problems and does not have the power to bear, resist or open another
   front. The American soldiers will surrender with the smallest
   flick.Purdastan said that the Supreme Leader's (Ayatollah Khamene'i's)
   view of the Islamic Republic of Iran's Ground Forces, on the whole, is an
   ideal and divine one. He remarked: The best model for soldiers are
   characteristics a nd features of the Holy Prophet (Muhammad). Today, many
   people are fascinated with his bright personality.He added: We are serving
   the Hezbollah (Party of God) and Islam army; and the Holy Koran has urged
   us to have a good and pleasant behaviour.The commander of army's Ground
   Forces referred to the country's military commanders, saying: An
   administrator should be able to show his capability of commandeering and
   administration to employees, officials and commanders by proving his
   qualifications and abilities. Identification of problems, shortcomings and
   dilemmas is one of the duties of an administrator. An administrator should
   find the appropriate solutions to disorders before they are
   created.(Description of Source: Tehran Jomhuri-ye Eslami Online in Persian
   -- website of conservative daily officially licensed to Supreme Leader
   Khamene'i, but aligned with Expediency Council Chairman Akbar
   Hashemi-Rafsanjani; www.jomhourieslami.com)

   Material in the World News Connectio n is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   137) Back to Top
   Xinhua 'China Exclusive': 0 GMT, Aug. 11
   Xinhua "China Exclusive": "0 GMT, Aug. 11" - Xinhua
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 16:37:00 GMT
   BEIJING, Aug. 11 (Xinhua) -- China's consumer price index (CPI), one of
   the main gauges of inflation, rose in July to its highest level since
   October 2008, boosted by rising food prices after widespread floods.

   * 1st Ld-Writethru: Survival chances slim for 18 miners trapped in flooded
   colliery in NE ChinaTONGHUA, Jilin, Aug. 11 (Xinhua) -- The whereabouts of
   the 18 miners who had been trapped for two days in a flooded colliery in
   northeast China's Jilin Province remained unknown Wednesday, and
   authorities said their survival chances were slim.* 1st Ld: Death toll in
   China mudslide rises to 1,117, 627 missingZHOUQU, Gansu, Aug. 11 (Xinhua)
   -- The death toll in the massive mudslide in northwest China's Gansu
   Province has risen to 1,117, with 627 still missing, local authorities
   said Wednesday.Also see:* 1st Ld-Writethru: Collapse of the
   mudslide-formed barrier lake in NW China unlikely: officialBEIJING, Aug.
   11 (Xinhua) -- It is unlikely the mudslide-formed barrier lake in
   northwest China's Zhouqu County will collapse, China's vice minister of
   water resources told a press conference here Wednesday* 1st Ld-Writethru:
   No reports of epidemic outbreak in mudslide-hit region: officialBEIJING,
   Aug. 11 (Xinhua) -- There have been no reports of an epidemic outbreak or
   public health incident in the northwestern Zhouqu County that was hit by a
   massive mudslide Sunday, a health official said Wednesday.* 1st L
   d-Writethru-China Exclusive: Rescuers face dilemma in clean-up at
   mudslide-ravaged townZHOUQU, Gansu, Aug. 11 (Xinhua) -- The stench of
   death hung over the northwest China county of Zhouqu Wednesday, three days
   after the deadliest mudslide in decades buried almost 2,000 people in
   their homes.* Relief supplies for mudslides-flattened NW China county
   adequate: officialBEIJING, Aug. 11 (Xinhua) -- The relief supplies are
   adequate for mudslides-devastated Zhouqu County in northwest China's Gansu
   Province, said an official from the Ministry of Civil Affairs Wednesday.*
   Rescuers fight to drain lake before new rains hit mudslide-leveled NW
   China townZHOUQU, Aug. 11 (Xinhua) -- The fight to drain a dangerous
   debris-formed lake gained new urgency Wednesday amid fears that a breach
   could bring further devastation to a northwest China county that was
   leveled by the country's deadliest mudslide in decades on Sunday.BUSINESS
   &amp;amp; FINANCE* China reiterates it remains world's second l argest energy
   userBEIJING, Aug. 11 (Xinhua) -- China reiterated Wednesday it remains the
   world's second largest energy consumer, as its energy consumption last
   year was still more than 200 million tonnes of standard oil equivalent
   below that of the United States.* 2nd LD-Writethru: China's fiscal revenue
   rises 25.7 pct in first seven monthsBEIJING, Aug. 11 (Xinhua) -- China's
   fiscal revenue jumped 25.7 percent from a year earlier to 5.11 trillion
   yuan (about 750 billion U.S. dollars) in the first seven months, the
   Ministry of Finance announced Wednesday.* 2nd Ld-Writethru: China's new
   lending drops to 532.8 bln yuan in JulyBEIJING, Aug. 11 (Xinhua) -- New
   yuan-denominated lending in July fell to 532.8 billion (78.6 billion U.S.
   dollars) from 603.4 billion yuan in June, the People's Bank of China
   (PBOC), the central bank, said in a statement Wednesday.* 2nd
   Ld-Writethru: China's industrial value-added output up 13.4 pct in
   JulyBEIJING, Aug. 11 (Xinhua) -- The growth of China' s industrial
   value-added output was up 13.4 percent in July year on year, 0.3
   percentage points down from June, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)
   said on Wednesday.* 2nd Ld-Writethru: China fixed asset investment up 24.9
   pct in first seven monthsBEIJING, Aug. 11 (Xinhua) -- China's fixed asset
   investment in the first seven months rose 24.9 percent year on year to
   11.98 trillion yuan (1.77 trillion U.S. dollars), the National Bureau of
   Statistics (NBS) announced Wednesday.* 1st Ld-Writethru: China's July
   retail sales up 17.9 pct: NBSBEIJING, Aug. 11 (Xinhua) -- China's retail
   sales, the main gauge of consumer spending, rose 17.9 percent year on year
   in July to 1.22 trillion yuan (180.8 billion U.S. dollars), the National
   Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced Wednesday.FEATURE* Xinhua Insight: No
   stone to go unturned in China's head countby Xinhua writer Guo
   LikunBEIJING, Aug. 11 (Xinhua) -- From counting toothbrushes on building
   sites to using remote sensing satellite ma ps, China's officials, scholars
   and census takers are racking their brains to make this year's national
   census of the world's most populous country as accurate as possible.About
   6.5 million census takers will go door-to-door in the first 10 days of the
   census, which begins on Nov.
   1.----------------------------------------------------YOUR QUERIES:Duty
   editor: Yuan Ye @ 8610 6307
   3665---------------------------------------------------- FTP file name:
   /eeeeeXxjwshE0002NT20100812N--simple.xml

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   138) Back to Top
   Full text of Sino-US Joint Statement on Energy Security Cooperation
   Sino-US Joint Statement on Energy Security Cooperation (Full Text) -- Xin
   hua headline -- from the Sino-US Strategic and Economic Dialog column -
   Xinhua Domestic Service
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 13:21:23 GMT
   As the world's larges energy production and consumption nations, China and
   the United States share common interests and responsibilities and face
   common challenges in ensuring energy security. China and the United States
   pledge to adhere to the principle of mutually beneficial cooperation,
   diversified development, and coordinated guarantee to ensure energy
   security; recognize that energy security and clean energy complement each
   other; and agree to increase cooperation in stabilizing the international
   energy market, guaranteeing diversified supply of energy, and utilizing
   energy rationally and effectively.

   Stabilizing the International Energy Market

   China and the United States share the consensus of safeguarding the
   stability of world energ y market. The international energy market plays
   an important role in satisfying the demand and stabilizing the supply of
   energy. Despite big fluctuations in international energy prices in recent
   years, it is the top and best choice of the two countries to meet the
   future energy demand through market mechanism.

   China and the United States reiterate the consensus reached by the energy
   ministers of five nations on establishing an open, transparent, highly
   efficient, and competitive energy market, including transparent and
   effective legal and monitoring frameworks. The two sides decide to
   increase the transparency of energy market; avoid sharp fluctuations of
   oil prices; and continue to cooperate closely with the International
   Energy Agency (IEA) and other international energy organizations
   (institutions) to ensure the security and stability of international
   energy market. The two countries hope to launch exchanges on the
   establishment of energy early warning and emergenc y response system; step
   up the monitoring of energy market; and jointly prevent manipulation of
   the oil futures market.

   China and the United States reaffirm the G20 Summit's promise to increase
   market transparency and stability. Preferably, monthly production and
   consumption data are made public comprehensively, accurately, and in a
   timely manner; and, under suitable circumstances, oil refinery and reserve
   data are published.

   China and the United States reaffirm the G20 Summit's promises to regulate
   and gradually cancel, within an interim period, fossil fuel subsidies,
   which are poor in efficiency and which promote waste; and to stimulate
   investment in the fields of clean energy, renewable energy, and energy
   efficiency and provide funding and technology support for developing
   countries' projects in these fields.

   China and the United States recognize their common interests in increasing
   the transparency and stability of energy market and promoting mutual
   understanding and increased bilateral cooperation in international and
   domestic energy issues; and consent to establishing a working group to map
   out formal arrangements for cooperation between the US Energy Information
   Administration and Chinese National Energy Administration, including
   information sharing and technical support, data collection for energy
   production (conventional and unconventional), acquisition of end
   consumption data through investigation, short- and mid-term forecast
   methods, energy information analysis and dissemination tactics, and so on
   and so forth.

   Guaranteeing Diversified Supply of Energy

   China and the United States fully understand the importance of global
   energy production, especially the development of clean energy. The two
   sides intend to work together to ensure the stable and secure supply of
   energy on the basis of adhering to the principle of giving priority to
   domestic demand, diversified development, and increased cooperation. The
   two countries will explore rapid communication and coordination mechanism
   in the event of major crises in energy supply; safeguard energy-producing
   countries' stability; ensure the safety of international energy passages;
   and encourage enterprises of the t wo countries to jointly develop oil and
   gas resources in third countries in a bid to increase oil and gas supply.

   China and the United States jointly pledge to increase investment in the
   energy realm. The two countries are committed to developing their domestic
   energy supply through open market and broad competition. The two countries
   welcome external investment on prospecting and developing the relevant
   resources.

   China and the United States understand the importance of fully developing
   and utilizing unconventional energy resources in their own country. In
   accordance with the Memorandum of the US State Department and Chinese
   National Energy Administration Concerning Cooperation in the Realm of
   Shale Gas , the two sides have drawn up and signed the Action Plan of the
   US State Department and Chinese National Energy Administration on Sino-US
   Work on Shale Gas Resources. The two countries plan to use the US side's
   experience in developing unconventional natural gas to carry out
   cooperation -- under the premise of complying with China's relevant laws
   and regulations -- in the evaluation of shale gas resources, their
   prospecting and exploiting technology, and relevant policies to facilitate
   the exploitation of shale gas resources in China. The two countries take
   this opportunity to approve the contacts in the realm of shale gas between
   the US Department of Energy and Trade and Development Agency and the
   Chinese National Development and Reform Commission. The two countries
   announce that the fifth Sino-US energy policy dialog and 10 th Sino-US oil
   and gas forum will be held in the United States in September 2010. The
   topics of the oil and gas forum will focus mainly on the developm ent of
   shale gas, including a study tour of shale gas fields in the United
   States.

   China and the United States fully recognize the importance of clean energy
   technology for realizing diversified supply of energy and guaranteeing
   energy security. The two countries reiterate the consensus in the
   Memorandum of Understanding on Increased Cooperation in Climate Change,
   Energy, and Environment, Sino-US Memorandum on Cooperation in Partnership
   in Renewable Energy, Protocol Concerning the Establishment of Sino-US
   Joint Research Center on Clean Energy, and Sino-US Memorandum on Further
   Strengthening Cooperation in the Nuclear Security of Westinghouse AP1000
   Nuclear Reactor ; and, in line with the principle of "joint research and
   shared risks and successes," will continue to jointly invest in the
   research and development of technologies related to clean coal, safety and
   operation of nuclear power (advanced nuclear energy), renewable energy,
   intelligent power grid, sha le gas, advanced bio-fuel, and electric car,
   as well as in-depth pragmatic cooperation in their research and
   development, production, and popularization. On the basis of properly
   resolving the issue of protecting intellectual property rights and in
   accordance with the pattern of nuclear technology transfer in the two
   countries, the Chinese National Nuclear Safety Administration and US
   Nuclear Regulatory Commission are willing to make efforts to promote
   cooperation in the nuclear safety technology of high-temperature
   gas-cooled reactor.

   China and the United States unanimously agree that diversified fuels for
   motor vehicles is very important to the two countries' energy security in
   the next few decades. To this end, China and the United States are
   committed to promoting popularization of the advanced technologies of
   electric cars, energy-saving cars, and alternate fuels. The two sides
   reiterate the importance of cooperation in the Sino-US Initiative on
   Electric Cars.

   Utilizing Energy Rationally and With High Efficiency

   China and the United States recognize that energy conservation and better
   energy efficiency can help the two countries significantly to resolve
   challenges in energy security, climate change, and environmental
   protection; and are the important way to achieve sustainable growth.

   China and the United States reaffirm the promises made by the meeting of
   the energy ministers of five countries to adopt measures for promoting
   energy conservation and efficiency and to develop and utilize energy
   technologies for sustainable growth of the environment in a bid to
   strengthen global energy security.

   China and the United States plan to carry out cooperation in saving energy
   and raising energy efficiency under the framework of the Sino-US 10-Year
   Energy Efficiency Action Plan for Cooperation in Energy and Environment ;
   as well as increase dialogs and hold energy efficiency forums, striving to
   raise energy efficie ncy in industry, construction, and energy-using end
   products; and to promote bilateral cooperation in auditing and
   benchmarking industrial energy efficiency, construction standards, signs
   and grades, testing and sign of energy-using end products, personnel
   training, demonstration projects, and promotion of trade and investment.

   (Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua Domestic Service in Chinese --
   China's official news service (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   139) Back to Top
   US Military Needs To Reduce 'Contest Events' To Cut Spending
   "News Analysis" by Xinhua reporter Wang Fengfeng: "Cutting Defense
   Spending: Pentagon Dares Not To uch The Root Cause" - Xinhua Domestic
   Service
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 12:25:11 GMT
   Analysts pointed out that the federal government is in a deep financial
   predicament and the Pentagon's spending cuts will merely cure the symptoms
   and not the causes. The United States should perhaps reflect on the
   fundamental cause of its inflated defense spending.

   "Sacrificing the Knight To Save the King"

   The Joint Forces Command that Gates proposed to close down is one of the
   US military's ten major joint operations commands. Its commander has
   always been a four-star general. But this command is not responsible for
   war planning or command. Rather, it is responsible for organizing joint
   training or cooperation training to ensure that all branches of the US
   military are capable of coordinated operations. In his assessment on 9
   August, Gates recognized the command's achieve ments in providing support
   for the US military's joint training and actions as well as arbitrating on
   matters of military discipline, but he said it is also a redundant
   bureaucratic organization.

   Gates only hinted at the matter, but researchers outside the US Government
   were not so generous. Thomas Donnelly, a military analyst at the American
   Enterprise Institute, said the Joint Forces Command never accomplished its
   task of strengthening coordination between all branches of the military.
   Cooperation between the US Army and Marine forces in Iraq and Afghanistan
   was mostly coordinated by the Central Command, which is responsible for
   Middle East affairs, or commanders in the specific theaters. It did not
   have much to do with the Joint Forces Command.

   The US media believe that, as the deficit increases dramatically and the
   economic slowdown leads to a decrease in tax revenues, the Department of
   Defense, which spends money as if it were water, naturally and particul
   arly stands out. The purpose of Gates' move is to "pre-empt" Congress
   before it puts military spending on the chopping block.

   Gates once said: "My greatest fear is that in economic tough times people
   will believe that defense spending cuts can solve the nation's deficit
   problems and make up for the debts of other government departments."

   Under pressure, Gates in June ordered the Department of Defense and the
   three services to cut unnecessary spending in the hope of saving more than
   $100 billion over five years. On 9 August, in addition to proposing that
   the Joint Forces Command be dismantled, he also planned to remove several
   sections in the Department of Defense. He demanded that 10 percent of the
   spending on contractors be cut annually over the next three years, while
   at the same time freezing the number of high-level civilian and military
   officials at the Department of Defense, seeking to eliminate at least 50
   military positions for gener als and 150 high-level civilian positions
   over the next two years.

   Ability Falls Short of Wishes

   The United States has the largest military expenditure in the world. Since
   the "911" incident in 2001, US military spending has grown by around 12
   percent each year. Even after inflation factors are deducted, the growth
   rate has been as high as seven percent. Excluding the battlefield spending
   in Iraq and Afghanistan, the US defense budget for this fiscal year
   reaches $535 billion. If the spending for those two wars is included, the
   military spending for this fiscal year reaches $663.8 billion, almost
   double the amount compared to ten years ago.

   The large amount of funds caused the Defense Department organizations to
   inflate rapidly, with the civilian staff reaching 745,000 persons and
   contractors numbering 766,000.But as the federal government falls into a
   financial predicament, it is facing spending cuts. Even though the Obama
   administration has clearly stated that it will not cut military spending,
   the annual growth in military spending is expected to be a mere 1-2
   percent, lower than the 2-3 percent growth rate necessary for the US
   military to maintain operational capabilities and modernize itself.

   At the same time, the United States is facing an unprecedented federal
   deficit and once-in-a-century financial and economic crisis. Statistics
   from the Treasury Department show that accumulated federal deficit has
   reached trillions of dollars and the deficit for the whole year is
   expected to reach $1.4 trillion, around 10 percent of GDP.

   Under these circumstances, it is only a matter time that Congress will
   take the defense budget to the chopping block.

   Cannot Cure Root Cause

   Gates' decision caused an uproar in Washington.US President Obama and
   Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mike Mullen immediately expressed
   support, but the reaction from Congress was mixed.

   Analysts believe tha t Gates' action appears to be very large, but he did
   not answer the question of exactly how much these measures would save.

   Regarding this, Maren Leed, a high-level research fellow at the US Center
   for Strategic and International Studies, said that Gates' decision may not
   be able to ensure a true military spending cut.

   The Wall Street Journal used a graphic analogy: If the Department of
   Defense was taking part in a decathlon contest, Gates did not explain
   whether the Department was losing 10 pounds of weight to take part in the
   ten events, or simply taking part in seven of those events.

   Observers here believe that such commentary have deep significance. The
   real root cause of the drastic rise in US military spending over the past
   ten years has been the two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the ubiquitous
   "war on terror."If the United States truly wants to cut its military
   spending, it may have to do more than just "slimming down." It m ay have
   to reduce the Defense Department's "contest events" and achieve its goals
   through diplomatic means instead of wielding a big stick to strengthen its
   so-called "national security."

   (Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua Domestic Service in Chinese --
   China's official news service (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   140) Back to Top
   China Reiterates It Remains World's Second Largest Energy User
   Xinhua: "China Reiterates It Remains World's Second Largest Energy User" -
   Xinhua
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 12:08:53 GMT
   BEIJING, Aug . 11 (Xinhua) -- China reiterated Wednesday it remains the
   world's second largest energy consumer, as its energy consumption last
   year was still more than 200 million tonnes of standard oil equivalent
   below that of the United States.

   The joint statement by the National Energy Administration and the National
   Bureau of Statistics of China came three weeks after the International
   Energy Agency (IEA) said China replaced the United States last year to
   become the world's largest energy consumer.China's energy consumption was
   2.146 billion tonnes of oil equivalent last year, compared with the 2.382
   billion tonnes the U.S. Energy Information Administration says the U.S.
   consumed last year, the statement said."The energy consumption per capita
   in China last year was just one fifth of that of the United States," the
   statement stressed, adding that China's energy consumption keeps growing
   amid the nation's rapid industrialization and urbanization.To reduce its
   dependen ce on energy to fuel economic growth, the Chinese government has
   taken a series of energy conservation and emission reduction measures,
   including shutting obsolete factories."China's total energy consumption
   growth has slowed year by year," the statement said.According to the IEA,
   China consumed the equivalent of 2.252 billion tonnes of oil in 2009, 0.4
   percent more than the 2.17 billion tonnes the United States
   consumed.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's
   official news service for English-language audiences (New China News
   Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   141) Back to Top
   NASA Astronauts Dismantle Broken Pump of ISS Cooling System. - In terfax
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 18:19:33 GMT
   WASHINGTON. Aug 11 (Interfax-AVN) - NASA astronauts Tracy Caldwell Dyson
   and Doug Wheelock during their second unscheduled spacewalk removed the
   breakdown pump module of the cooling system on the U.S. segment of the
   International Space Station (ISS).NASA announced Wednesday evening that at
   the beginning of the spacewalk Wheelock succeeded in disconnecting the
   pump module from the last ammonia pipe. This time unlike the first
   spacewalk on August 7 there was almost no escape of the toxic liquid.After
   that the astronauts disconnected five electric cables from the pump
   module. They also removed four bolts attaching the module to the
   section.After that Shannon Walker who remained inside of ISS should place
   the breakdown module on a mobile transporter using the Canadian artificial
   limb SSRMS.During his spacewalk last Saturday Wheelock failed to re place
   the pump.In the early hours of August 1 the pump module pumping the
   ammonia that cools the modules of the U.S. segment broke down. As a result
   one of the two cooling circuits of the U.S. segment stopped functioning.
   The attempts to restart the pump module failed, so NASA decided that
   unscheduled spacewalks should be made to replace the pump
   module.mlInterfax-950040-YLCADBAA

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   142) Back to Top
   Review of Various U. S. UAVs That Are Needed by RF Ministry of Defense
   Article by Vladimir Shcherbakov on the new unmammed flying vehicles [UAVs]
   being developed in the United States that are of interest to the Ministry
   of Defense of Russia, particularl y the hand-lauched UAVs that use
   hydrogen fuel cells in their power plants: "How the Problems of Developing
   Mini-Drones Are Being Resolved" - Voyenno-Promyshlennyy Kuryer Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 18:40:43 GMT
   According to the most conservative estimates, in the last decade alone,
   the Pentagon has acquired no less than 12,500 UAVs of various types--UAVs
   that are narrowly specialized. Such UAVs usually have a take-off weight
   ranging from about .25 kilograms to 6.5 kilograms and a wingspan ranging
   from .7 meters to 2.7 meters. They can be transported, along with the
   control panel and, if necessary, auxiliary equipment, in one or two
   backpacks. The drones snapped together and made ready for launch in a
   matter of minutes. After that, the soldier only has wave his hand, in a
   literal sense, and send the aerial mini-robot flying up into the sky (that
   is, the soldiers uses his hand to hurl the drone into the sky).

   Two hours are not sufficient.

   At the same time, regardless of its small dimensions and weight, the
   man-portable UAVs are quite capable of conducting of reconnaissance,
   primarily in the optical and/or infrared ranges. They are also able to
   transmit reconnaissance information about the enemy to the control panel
   of the operator in real time, providing a current picture of the situation
   on a battlefield for the commander of a subunit and even an individual
   soldier.

   The payload of these UAVs usually include compact video cameras, photo
   cameras, and televisions. An electric motor, powered by a battery, is used
   as the power plant for the UAVs. That makes it possible to reduce the
   noise and weight of the UAV. At the same time, it makes the UAV more
   explosion-proof and fireproof.

   But, on the other hand, such drones also have a number of shortcomings.
   The most serious shortcoming is the small duration of the flight, wh ich
   is due to the small size and take-off weight of the drone. Its small size
   does not allow the placement of a significant quantity of power sources
   onboard. As a result, as a rule, the mini-drones are not able to be in the
   sky for more than one or two hours.

   Of course, for the fulfillment of the majority of tasks, for which such
   UAVs were designed, this is enough time. All the same, the mini-drone is a
   means for operational reaction. It is a pre-strike staging vehicle, so to
   speak. However, after analyzing the results of the operation of UAVs of
   this class, including their operation in combat conditions, for example,
   during the operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, the American generals and
   military experts reached a conclusion on the necessity to increase the
   flight duration of the man-portable drones by a factor of 1.5 or a factor
   of 2. And, if possible, by even more than that.

   Recently, in an interview, a representative of a department of the U. S.
   Air Force Research Laboratory, which engages in research in the sphere of
   the adaption of hydrogen fuel cells to power plants of flying vehicles of
   various types, made the following statement to journalists: "A long flight
   duration is very important for the military. That will make it possible
   for the American soldiers to keep targets under observation for a longer
   period of time and it will also make it possible to carry out
   reconnaissance and observation over a large area until the drone ends its
   flight or is recalled for a recharging of the battery or the replenishment
   of the fuel supply. On a modern battlefield, information is a key factor.
   Consequently, by increasing the flight duration, we can significantly
   increase the amount of reconnaissance information that is accessible for
   us and forces that are allied with us."

   A hybrid engine.

   In this connection, however, a question immediately arises: How can the
   flight duration of the UAV be increased without a substantial increase in
   its size and weight? Indeed, it is not possible, at the present time, to
   obtain a positive result by increasing the effectiveness of the operation
   of the batteries or an increase in the number of them aboard the UAV: The
   engineers are not promising to develop batteries with greatly improved
   working characteristics in the near future.

   A number of companies and organizations, of course, are trying to develop
   more compact engines, which use organic types of fuel, or engines of the
   hybrid type. Thus, in the beginning of 2010, the American agency, DARPA
   (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency), awarded a contract to Aurora
   Flight Sciences that provides funding for the first stage of development
   of small UAVs with hybrid power plants of a new type. The power plant will
   consist of an electric motor and a compact turbo-diesel engine.

   The new motor must have more effectiveness, horsepower, and fuel
   efficiency. It also must make less noise in comparison with the gas
   engines that are being used today. At the same time, its power must not be
   less than 10 horsepower. The purpose of this work, which is being carried
   out by specialists of Aurora Flight Sciences, is to adapt a diesel engine,
   which requires heavy fuel, to drones. At the present time, that is not
   expedient, mainly because of the relatively large sizes and weights of
   motors that use diesel fuel or JP-8.

   However, such engines are still only prospective projects. At the present
   time, it is necessary to increase the flight duration.

   Hydrogen fuel cells.

   It has been managed to find a solution. The use of hydrogen fuel cells as
   energy sources. Fortunately, real break-through results have been achieved
   in this sphere in recent years in the West.

   For example, Protonex, a company which engages in the development of
   hydrogen fuel cells, recently demonstrated the possibility of increasing
   the flight duration of a UAV, which was equipped with hydrogen fuel cells
   (the take-off weight of the UAV was 6.3 kilograms), to nine hours. And,
   according to the specialists of Protonex, the volume of the fuel cells and
   fuel cartridge together is a little less than that of a 2-liter bottle of
   Coca-Cola.

   Previously, the company had developed a wide range of fuel elements with
   powers ranging from 100 to 500 watts. True, in this case, it was necessary
   to put a lithium-ion battery onboard the UAV in order to obtain additional
   power during the take-off and landing of the UAV. The battery itself,
   however, is recharged by the hydrogen fuel cell in flight.

   In an interview with the leading American political-military weekly,
   Defense News, Scott Pearson, the head of the Protonex company, said that
   drones, equipped with hydrogen fuel cells and lithium-ion batteries, can
   remain in the air two to three times longer than their counterparts, which
   have traditional power plants with electric motors.

   The results of th e tests made a good impression on the leadership of the
   U. S Department of Defense, which soon awarded a contract to the company.
   The contract amounts to 3.3 million dollars and it is for the development
   of an improved type of fuel cell, as well as the accompanying equipment
   and instrumentation.

   It is planned that the hydrogen fuel cell, on the development of which
   specialists of Aurora Flight Sciences have been working, will be
   integrated into the power plant of a Puma AE UAV, which was developed by
   the company, AeroVironment. The length of this UAV is 1.4 meters. The
   wingspan is 2.7 meters. The drone is designed for the conducting of
   reconnaissance in daytime and nighttime conditions, for which it is
   equipped with electro-optical and infrared cameras . The power plant of
   the drone is an electric engine (that is, the electric engine turns the
   UAV's propeller, whereas the fuel cell powers the cameras, communications
   gear, and flight controls and recharges the batteri es for the electric
   motor). All of the onboard equipment is for reconnaissance. The systems
   for flight control and communications with the ground based controller
   also have electrical power.

   It was not by chance that AeroVironment was selected for this project. The
   specialists of this company had the honor of developing the RQ-11A
   "Raven", perhaps the most famous hand-launched UAV in the world. The
   weight of the Raven is 1.9 kilograms. The fleet of these UAVs in the U. S.
   Armed Forces alone numbers about 4,000. The first flight of these drones
   took place in 2001 and just a few years later, in 2003, they were accepted
   into the arsenal of the U. S Armed Forces. Subunits of the Special
   Operations Command of the U. S, Armed Forces was the first to receive the
   Ravens in significant quantities. In accordance with the initial contract,
   about 850 drones of this type were purchased. Each drone cost about 35,000
   dollars (the cost of one whole system is about 250 thous and dollars).

   Problems of technology.

   The following is stated in one of the advertising bulletins of the
   Protonex company: "All that you have to do is add water. After that, you
   will obtain a fuel with a high energy density."

   The reference here is to hydrogen, which is released when (sodium)
   borohydrate is mixed with simple water and exposed to a catalyst and heat.
   The gas that is obtained enters directly into the fuel cell to the anode,
   which uses a small amount of platinum as a catalyst to divide the hydrogen
   into protons and electrons. The latter form an electrical current which
   flows to an external circuit. This electrical current is necessary for the
   operation of the power plant and the onboard equipment. The protons, in
   turn, are conducted through a hydrogen proton exchange membrane in the
   fuel cell to a catalytic cathode, where they combine with oxygen in the
   air to produce water. Water is necessary for obtaining hydrogen. Such is
   the cycle of substances within the bounds of one drone.

   Of course, the duration of such a semi-closed cycle is contingent of the
   supplies of the basic substance--sodium borohydrate. The expended fuel
   cartridges can either be discarded in flight or brought back and
   subsequently sent for recharging. In this connection, a special control
   system, built into the cartridge, automatically regulates the degree of
   the reaction and the rate of hydrogen production.

   Representatives of Protonex said that a distinguishing feature of this
   fuel-energy system, which is being developed in accordance with the
   contract that was awarded by the Pentagon, is the fact that all of the
   components used in this system, including the fuel and the residue, are
   not toxic and not combustible. Moreover, the system is cost-effective and
   that is of no small importance.

   In an interview with journalists, Steven Gitlin, the press secretary for
   AeroVironment, emphasized: "We see a great pot ential for our Puma AE UAV,
   which is equipped with a system of hydrogen fuel cells. Such a drone can
   be used quite effectively for perimeter monitoring (guarding) or for
   flying ahead of a ground convoy for an extended period of time."

   Moreover, it should be emphasized that AeroVironment, which produces the
   Puma AE drones, is making modifications not only for subunits of the U. S.
   Army, border services, and the U. S. Air Force, but also for special
   operations. It is also making modifications for the U. S. Navy and the U.
   S. Coast Guard.

   This drone is like an "omnivore". That is reflected in the very name of
   the UAV. AE stands for All- Environment, which means that it can be used
   in all conditions. In particular, a modification of the Puma has been
   designed for the Navy and the Coast Guard. It is waterproof and,
   consequently, it can carry out a safe landing on a water surface. These
   UAVs are operated with a hand-held control panel, measuring 15.24
   centimeters by 25.40 centimeters, with a screen that measures 10.16
   centimeters by 15.24 centimeters (Note: The screen displays video
   transmissions from the UAV and has five knobs for directing the UAV and
   its onboard electro-optical and infrared cameras.).

   Representatives of the U. S. Department of Defense said that it is planned
   to complete the first stage of the program, which is aimed at the
   development of a UAV, with an increased flight duration and with a
   prospective power plant based on hydrogen fuel cells, in 2010-2011. With
   positive results of tests, it is planned to accept such UAVs into the
   arsenals of the various branches and combat arms of the Armed Forces of
   the United States in the shortest time possible.

   The military of other countries are also showing interest in these
   prospective developments. It seems that such drones would also be very
   useful for the Russian militarized structures. But the trouble is that,
   unfortunately, we shamelessly lag b ehind the West in the sphere of the
   development of such fuel cells and air-independent power plants.

   (Description of Source: Moscow Voyenno-Promyshlennyy Kuryer Online in
   Russian -- Website of the weekly newspaper focusing on military and
   defense industrial complex issues published by Almaz Media, a subsidiary
   of the defense industrial firm Almaz-Antey -- URL: http://vpk-news.ru/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   143) Back to Top
   US Senate To Vote On New START In Sep, White House Confident Of
   Ratification - ITAR-TASS
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 18:40:39 GMT
   intervention)

   WASHINGTO N, August 11 (Itar-Tass) -- The new U.S.-Russian Treaty On
   Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive
   Arms (also known as the new START Treaty) will be put to vote in the U.S.
   Senate shortly after the middle of September and the White House has no
   doubt that it will be ratified, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
   said."Next month, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee will bring the
   new START treaty one step closer to ratification," she said her remarks on
   the ratification of START, made in the Senate on Wednesday, August
   11."Last week, I was pleased to meet with Chairman John Kerry to discuss
   the committee's schedule for consideration of the treaty on September 15th
   or 16th and in the full Senate soon after. The Chairman and Ranking Member
   Senator Lugar have constructed a good plan, and I am confident about the
   prospects for ratification," Clinton recalled."In the weeks and months
   since the treaty was submitted to the Senate, it has earned bipartisan
   support from senators on both sides of the aisle as well as statesmen in
   and out of government from both parties. They understand that once the new
   START treaty is ratified and enters into force, it will advance our
   national security and provide stability and predictability between the
   world's two leading nuclear powers," the secretary said.She urged American
   legislators to ratify the treaty and brushed off assertions that Richard
   Lugar was the only opposition Republican to support the document."We have
   indications of much more bipartisan support than that," she said.For the
   treaty to be ratified, it has to be supported by two-thirds, i.e. 67 votes
   of 100. This means that the Democratic Obama administration needs the
   support of at least eight Republicans in the Senate.Clinton admitted that
   the treaty had become a hostage of political squabbles over the upcoming
   interim elections in November. Nevertheless she expressed conf idence that
   the "vast majority of senators will judge this treaty on the merits.""I
   believe that this treaty is too important and it will merit the most
   thoughtful and substantive response from members of the Senate. It should
   not be in any way caught up in election year politics. When I look back at
   the record of overwhelming support - 95 to nothing, 98 to 3 - I mean, just
   an enormous bipartisan commitment to continue arms reduction as a policy
   that is embraced by both sides of the aisle, I believe that the vast
   majority of senators will judge this treaty on the merits," Clinton
   said.She said the decision of John Kerry, the chairman of the Committee on
   Foreign Relations, to postpone the vote on the treaty in the committee
   from August to September was "a gesture of good faith"."The Chairman's
   decision to give members of both sides of the aisle additional time to
   review the underlying materials, but set a committee vote for the middle
   of Sep tember, is a gesture of good faith and underscores the tradition of
   bipartisan support," she said."But when the Senate returns, they must act,
   because our national security is at risk. There is an urgency to ratify
   this treaty because we currently lack verification measures with Russia
   which only hurts our national security interests. Our ability to know and
   understand changes in Russia's nuclear arsenal will erode without the
   treaty. As time passes, uncertainty will increase. With uncertainty comes
   unpredictability, which, when you're dealing with nuclear weapons, is
   absolutely a problem that must be addressed. Ratifying the new START
   treaty will prevent that outcome," Clinton said.She believes that the
   delay in ratification will not affect U.S.-Russia relations
   negatively."And the Russians understand that we have a process we go
   through that they also now go through with their Duma. We've stayed in
   close touch in sharing schedules and what we've been do ing. And so I
   don't see any affect whatsoever from our pursuit of ratification on the
   reset of our relations," Clinton said.The U.S. administration hopes that
   the Senate will ratify the new Russian-American START treaty before the
   end of this year."The Administration remains optimistic about the
   prospects for New START. Over the course of the past two and a half
   months, no significant opposition or credible arguments have emerged. We
   have said all along that we hope to have the Senate approve the treaty by
   the end of the year, and we believe they are on track to do that," State
   Department spokesman Philip J. Crowley said earlier.Clinton and Kerry met
   in early August to talk "about the new START agreement .875 the fact that
   the Senate has delayed the vote until September 15th or 16th, it's neither
   a surprise nor a cause of concern, and we understand that the treaty will
   be the first item of business for the committee the week the Senate
   returns next month, " Crowley said."We would hope and expect at the end of
   this process next month, that we'll have widespread bipartisan support for
   the New START Treaty," he added.For the treaty to be ratified, it has to
   receive two-thirds of votes in the Senate, i.e. 67 of 100.Russian
   President Dmitry Medvedev said earlier that U.S. President Barack Obama
   and he had agreed to carry out ratification procedures "simultaneously" to
   avoid awkward situations on both sides.(Description of Source: Moscow
   ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   144) Back to Top
   Russia Will Not Give Schneerson Library to American Hasids - Ministr y -
   Interfax
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 18:14:27 GMT
   MOSCOW. Aug 11 (Interfax) - The Russian Foreign Ministry has said that the
   decision by a federal judge in Washington that historical books and
   documents, known as the Schneerson collection, should be returned to the
   U.S.-based Chabad Lubavitch movement is illegal."The Schneerson Library
   has never belonged to Chabad. It never left Russia and was nationalized
   because there were no legal heirs in the Schneerson family. The 'return'
   of these books to the U.S. is not an issue in principle," the Russian
   Foreign Ministry's Department of Information and Press said in the
   comments posted on its website on Wednesday."On the contrary, it is
   American Hasids who must return to Russia seven books from the same
   collection that they lent from the Russian State Library in 1994 through
   the U.S. Congress library for two months and have wit hheld illegally for
   16 years now.""The non-governmental religious organization of American
   Hasids called Agudas Hasidei Chabad based in the New York district of
   Brooklyn spent more than 15 years demanding on unclear grounds that Russia
   should 'return' to the U.S. the so-called Schneerson Library, a collection
   of books on Judaism, which had for centuries been collected in the
   Smolensk province by the family of the Russian Empire subjects, the
   Schneerson rabbis," the Department said.By law, "it would be logical, if
   the U.S. court, mindful of the immunity of the Russian Federation and its
   property against the jurisdiction of a foreign court, ruled that this
   matter is outside its jurisdiction and any claims by plaintiffs must be
   dealt with exclusively at Russian courts," the ministry said. "By the way,
   no one is depriving American Hasids of this opportunity," it
   said."Unfortunately, the U.S. judge made an unlawful decision, which
   cannot be enforced in Russia, as a matter of fact. There is no agreement
   between Russia and the U.S. on mutual recognition and enforcement of civil
   judgments," the statement said.It was reported that on August 6 a federal
   judge in Washington ruled that Hasids had proved the legality of their
   claims to ancient Jewish books and manuscripts which, by his definition,
   are kept at the Russian State Library and the Russian Military Archive
   'illegally.'Part of the collection gathered by Lubavitch rabbi Joseph I.
   Schneerson was nationalized by Bolsheviks in 1918 and ended up at the
   Russian National Lenin Library. The remainder was taken out of the Soviet
   Union by Schneerson who emigrated in 1930s.About 25,000 pages of
   manuscripts got into the hands of the Nazi and were found later by the Red
   Army, which handed them over to the Russian State Military
   Archive.Lubavitch Hasids have sought the restitution of the Schneerson
   collection since the late 1980s. According to some reports, first Rus sian
   President Boris Yeltsin promised to James Baker, State Secretary in the
   George Bush Sr. administration, to return the sacred documents to
   Hasids.kkInterfax-950040-KJCADBAA

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   145) Back to Top
   New START Has Broader Support In Senate Than Thought -- Clinton -
   ITAR-TASS
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 16:46:38 GMT
   intervention)

   WASHINGTON, August 11 (Itar-Tass) -- The new U.S.-Russian Treaty On
   Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive
   Arms (also known as the new START Treaty) has broader bipartisan support
   in the U.S. Senate tha n thought, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
   said.In her remarks on the ratification of START, made in the Senate on
   Wednesday, August 11, Clinton urged American legislators to ratify the
   treaty.She brushed off assertions that Richard Lugar was the only
   opposition Republican to support the document."We have indications of much
   more bipartisan support than that," she said.For the treaty to be
   ratified, it has to be supported by two-thirds, i.e. 67 votes of 100. This
   means that the Democratic Obama administration needs the support of at
   least eight Republicans in the Senate.Clinton admitted that the treaty had
   become a hostage of political squabbles over the upcoming interim
   elections in November. Nevertheless she expressed confidence that the
   "vast majority of senators will judge this treaty on the merits.""I
   believe that this treaty is too important and it will merit the most
   thoughtful and substantive response from members of the Senate. It sh ould
   not be in any way caught up in election year politics. When I look back at
   the record of overwhelming support - 95 to nothing, 98 to 3 - I mean, just
   an enormous bipartisan commitment to continue arms reduction as a policy
   that is embraced by both sides of the aisle, I believe that the vast
   majority of senators will judge this treaty on the merits," Clinton
   said.She said the decision of John Kerry, the chairman of the Committee on
   Foreign Relations, to postpone the vote on the treaty in the committee
   from August to September was "a gesture of good faith"."The Chairman's
   decision to give members of both sides of the aisle additional time to
   review the underlying materials, but set a committee vote for the middle
   of September, is a gesture of good faith and underscores the tradition of
   bipartisan support," she said."But when the Senate returns, they must act,
   because our national security is at risk. There is an urgency to ratify
   this treaty because we currently lack verification measures with Russia
   which only hurts our national security interests. Our ability to know and
   understand changes in Russia's nuclear arsenal will erode without the
   treaty. As time passes, uncertainty will increase. With uncertainty comes
   unpredictability, which, when you're dealing with nuclear weapons, is
   absolutely a problem that must be addressed. Ratifying the new START
   treaty will prevent that outcome," Clinton said.She believes that the
   delay in ratification will not affect U.S.-Russia relations
   negatively."And the Russians understand that we have a process we go
   through that they also now go through with their Duma. We've stayed in
   close touch in sharing schedules and what we've been doing. And so I don't
   see any affect whatsoever from our pursuit of ratification on the reset of
   our relations," Clinton said.The U.S. administration hopes that the Senate
   will ratify the new Russian-American START treaty before the e nd of this
   year."The Administration remains optimistic about the prospects for New
   START. Over the course of the past two and a half months, no significant
   opposition or credible arguments have emerged. We have said all along that
   we hope to have the Senate approve the treaty by the end of the year, and
   we believe they are on track to do that," State Department spokesman
   Philip J. Crowley said earlier.Clinton and Kerry met in early August to
   talk "about the new START agreement .875 the fact that the Senate has
   delayed the vote until September 15th or 16th, it's neither a surprise nor
   a cause of concern, and we understand that the treaty will be the first
   item of business for the committee the week the Senate returns next
   month," Crowley said."We would hope and expect at the end of this process
   next month, that we'll have widespread bipartisan support for the New
   START Treaty," he added.For the treaty to be ratified, it has to receive
   two-thirds of votes in the Senate, i.e. 67 of 100.Russian President Dmitry
   Medvedev said earlier that U.S. President Barack Obama and he had agreed
   to carry out ratification procedures "simultaneously" to avoid awkward
   situations on both sides.Meanwhile, the United States and Russia have
   completed negotiations on three annexes to the Protocol of the New START
   Treaty."The United States and the Russian Federation have completed
   negotiations on three Annexes to the Protocol of the New START Treaty and
   formally exchanged the text today in Moscow," Crowley said earlier."These
   Annexes contain the technical information and detailed procedures that
   will be used in implementing the New START Treaty verification regime," he
   said.The annexes provide formats for the treaty's notifications and "spell
   out the procedures for the conduct of inspection activities and the
   exchange of telemetric information", the spokesman said."This completes
   the Treaty docum ents that will be transmitted to the Senate in May for
   its advice and consent to ratification," Crowley said.(Description of
   Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   146) Back to Top
   Dollar Soars Over 20 Kopecks on MICEX, Euro Declines (Part 2) - Interfax
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 16:32:45 GMT
   MOSCOW. Aug 11 (Interfax) - The U.S. dollar increased substantially on the
   MICEX on Wednesday, hitting its highest point for August while the euro
   decreased following its performance on the Forex, declining oil prices and
   negative s tock market trends. The ruble weakened slightly against the
   Central Bank's bi-currency basket.The dollar went up by 20.75 kopecks in
   MICEX trading to close at 30.2575 rubles/$1 while the euro decreased by
   12.7 kopecks to finish at 39.35 rubles/EUR1.The dollar rose to 30.3
   rubles/$1 at one stage. It has risen on the MICEX for three days in
   succession, gaining 45-50 kopecks.The bi-currency basket (set at $0.55 and
   0.45 euro) went up by six kopecks to 34.35 rubles, also an August-high.The
   Central Bank has raised its dollar rate for Thursday 18.1 kopecks to
   30.205 rubles/$1, but lowered its euro rate 8.18 kopecks to 39.4417
   rubles/EUR1.The dollar averaged up 19.58 kopecks in Today deals on the
   MICEX to 30.2072 rubles/$1, and 21.02 kopecks to 30.2294 rubles/$1 in Tom
   deals. Overall dollar trading came to $4.91 billion, of which $933.4
   million in Today and $3.976 billion in Tom deals.The euro averaged down
   8.45 kopecks in today deals to 39.4392 rubles/EUR1 and 7.05 kopecks in Tom
   deals to 39.4311 rubles/EUR1. Volume was EUR248.3 million, including
   EUR72.3 million in Today and EUR176.2 million in Tom deals.Money-market
   rates altered little, with the MosPrime Rate for overnight loans edging up
   2 basis points to 2.75%.Ih pr(Our editorial staff can be reached at
   eng.editors@interfax.ru)Interfax-950140-LACADBAA

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   147) Back to Top
   PRC Religious Heads 'Denounce' US Commission's Report on China's Religious
   Freedom
   Report by reporter Wei Wu: "Our Religious Representatives Denounce the US
   Commission on International Religious Freedom for Slandering the Freedom
   of Religious Belief in Our Country" - Xinhua Domestic Service&lt;/ div&gt;
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 07:11:31 GMT
   Imam Chen Guangyuan, president of the China Islamic Association, said the
   report twisted facts and inverted right and wrong. It adopted a "double
   standard" and connived in extremism and terrorism. It was infuriating. "As
   the head of the China Islamic Association, I strongly protest this." China
   is home to 10 ethnic minority groups. More than 20 million people believe
   in Islamism. Their religious faith and religious life are protected and
   respected by the government in accordance with the law. He said Islamism
   is a peaceful religion and Muslims advocate harmony and solidarity. They
   are staunchly opposed to killing innocent people. The people who
   instigated, organized, and took part in the seriously violent crimes that
   involved beating, smashing, looting and burning in Urumqi, Xinjiang, on 5
   July last year did not represent Islamis m or Chinese Muslims. Their
   extreme actions completely went against the Islamic spirit and have
   sparked ethnic and religious hatred, upset social order, and destroyed
   Chinese Muslims' lives that have been getting better and better since the
   launch of reform and opening up. It was simply not a religious issue. The
   greater and escalating efforts taken by the government of our country to
   apply measures to stop the violent and terrorist actions in accordance
   with the law, in a bid to restore social order, were entirely meant to
   safeguard the fundamental interests of people of various ethnic groups in
   Xinjiang. The efforts helped to protect the security of their lives and
   properties. We Muslims firmly supported that. In the incident, no single
   Muslim or Mosque in Xinjiang was involved in any act of violence. Rather,
   many Muslims risked their lives to rescue people of different ethnic
   groups. Imams in Xinjiang took the initiative to help the government to
   maintain social stability . They criticized extremist twisted facts and
   evil ideas. There was no such thing as "arrest by the government."
   Religious activities were held as usual and none had been "banned." The
   United States should pay more attention to it own issues related to
   religious freedom instead of insisting on criticizing others with ulterior
   motives.

   Zhang Jiyu, vice chairman of the Taoism Association, said that since the
   reform and opening up began, our country's government has been fully
   implementing a policy of freedom of religious belief. Many temples and
   churches have been restored and opened. The doctrines and cultures of
   different religions have been promoted and spread. With the support of the
   government, Taoists in China successfully held the "International Daode
   Jin" forum, which fully demonstrated the positive environment in which
   religious freedom thrives and different religions can promote their own
   cultures. Various religions in China have seen sustainable growth and
   progress. Citizens enjoy freedom of religious belief. Everyone can see
   that. However, the report of the US Commission on International Religious
   Freedom ignored all these facts. It is biased and prejudiced and
   deliberately twisted facts, making criticisms of our country's freedom of
   religious belief. What makes us religious people particularly baffled and
   angry is that the report actually continued to claim the issue concerning
   the violation of the law and the crimes of "Falungong," an evil cult that
   China's religious sector and people of various ethnic groups hate deeply,
   was a religious issue. That completely neglected the interests of
   religions in China and all the Chinese people. It also turned a deaf ear
   to the righteous voice of religious figures in China and all the Chinese
   people. The Chinese Government's legal prohibition of the "Falungong" as
   an evil cult was an attempt to safeguard the fundamental human rights of
   cit izens and freedom of religious belief.

   Liu Bonian, vice president of the Chinese Catholic Patriotic Association,
   said over the past three decades since reform and opening up began,
   Catholic clergymen and worshippers in China have been living a happy
   religious life. China's Catholic Church has selected and sent nearly 100
   priests, students and nuns to some 10 Catholic universities in the United
   States to study religion. That was without precedence in the history of
   the Chinese Church. We strongly believe that religious development in
   China is now in its prime. When representatives of the US Commission on
   International Religious Freedom were invited by the State Administration
   for Religious Affairs to visit China in 2005, they also paid a visit to
   the Catholic Patriotic Association. They noticed the actual situation of
   the Chinese Church and shared their genuine views, saying they believed
   China had made a lot of achievements through its policy of freedom of
   religious b elief. Yet, in the annual report, they were driven by
   political motives to confuse right with wrong, which violated the teaching
   in the Bible which says "simply let your 'yes' be 'yes' and your 'no' be
   'no'." We religious people cannot accept that.

   An evil cult, the "Falungong" confronts and endangers society. It runs
   counter to the principles of various legitimate religions. It is simply
   not a religion. Yet the US Commission on International Religious Freedom's
   report cheered for it in a bid to use an evil cult to destroy the
   stability and economic growth of Chinese society. People do not approve of
   that and it will affect the normal development of the friendship between
   the people of both countries, and their national ties.

   Master Xuecheng, vice chairman of the Buddhist Association of China, said
   the so-called annual report of the US Commission on International
   Religious Freedom is usually steep in cliches and it is not worth making
   any ef fort to refute it. The United States' double standard for handling
   religious and human rights issues at the international level is a
   hegemonic act in the realm of religion. It is a form of interference in
   other countries' internal affairs and amounts to serious violation of
   human rights. Buddhism believe in causes and retribution, and it tells
   worshippers "not to tell lies." "I still remember clearly what they said
   when they visited the Buddhist Association of China in 2005. After they
   returned home, they cooked up a series of lies." As with other religions,
   Buddhism in China enjoys full rights to freedom of religious belief.
   Chinese Buddhism consists of three linguistic families, namely Chinese,
   Tibetan, and Paali. They are close like brothers. When Yushu in Qinghai
   was hit by a major earthquake this year, the Buddhist Association of China
   immediately issued a proposal calling on Buddhist followers to donate
   money and materials to help the disaster areas . "We also held a 'well
   wishing ceremony' hoping the dead would go to the Pure Land soon, the
   injured would recover soon, and the survivors would enjoy increasing
   wisdom." In particular, he pointed out that in 2008, a very small number
   of unscrupulous people committed violent crimes that involved beating,
   smashing, looting and burning in Lhasa, under the manipulation of the
   Dalai Clique. They undermined Tibet's stability and attempted to create
   social riots. That was all a well planned political plot hatched by the
   Dalai Clique, with a view to splitting Tibet from the country and
   disrupting the normal, harmonious and secure lives of Tibetan people. The
   plot seriously hampered the Tibetan people's interests. The US report
   bashed the Chinese Government for taking necessary measures to suppress
   the riot. That was maddening! Hopefully the United States will stop using
   religion to interfere with China's internal affairs, and do more things
   that are good for the friendsh ip between the people of the two countries.

   According to Reverend Yu Xinli, deputy head of the National Committee of
   the Three-Self Patriotic Movement of the Protestant Churches in China,
   China's freedom of religious belief is real. Today, Christians in China
   can conduct normal religious activities. The Chinese Church has published
   more than 50 million copies of the Bible. In 2006, the Chinese Church
   successfully held the "Chinese Church Bible Work Exhibition" (Zhongguo
   Jiaohui Shengjing Shigong Zhanlan) in the United States. The event
   attracted thousands of American people, and former US President Jimmy
   Carter also attended the ribbon-cutting ceremony. That was a solid piece
   of evidence. In order to provide high quality religious services at the
   Beijing Olympics in 2008, the municipal government of Beijing lent us
   support to build several churches so as to meet the needs of worshippers
   to attend religious services. We also published copies of the bible for
   the Olympics, which were given to Christians who came from various
   countries to attend the Olympics in Beijing. This fully demonstrated
   China's freedom of religious belief.

   According to Living Buddha Nacang, deputy head of the Advanced Buddhism
   College of Tibetan Language Family of China, the report of the US
   Commission on International Religious Freedom once again exposed the
   United States' typical trick of grossly interfering in other countries'
   internal affairs by making accusations and criticisms regarding the
   correct policy of freedom of religious belief adopted by our country's
   government, and its solemn position on defending national solidarity and
   the integrity of national territory. The Chinese Government has adopted
   many important measures to protect and enhance the freedom of religious
   belief of Chinese citizens, including residents in Tibet and Xinjiang. The
   enormous amount of money distributed by the central government to repair
   Tibetan Buddhist venues, s uch as the Potala, embodied the government's
   attempt to protect freedom of religious belief. The criminal acts of
   beating, smashing, robbing, and burning that took place in 2008 were
   obviously meant to create trouble to disrupt the Olympics. The riots took
   away 10-odd precious lives and resulted in immense loss of properties. And
   a small number of monks who violated the law by taking part in the acts
   breached Buddhist rules and seriously tarnished the reputation and image
   of Tibetan Buddhism. We Buddhists firmly supported the government taking
   necessary measures to tackle the seriously violent crimes that involved
   beating, smashing, robbing, and burning, in accordance with the law.

   We also urge the United States to stop supporting the 14 th Dalai Lama and
   to make him stop organizing activities aimed at splitting the motherland.

   (Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua Domestic Service in Chinese --
   China's official news service (New China News Agency))

   Mat erial in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   148) Back to Top
   Russian Stock Exchange Declines Following Disappointing Results From Fed
   Meeting - Interfax
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 15:42:49 GMT
   meeting

   MOSCOW. Aug 11 (Interfax) - The Russian stock market on Wednesday dropped
   to a two-week low following the decline on world markets following the
   disappointing results of a meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserves and weak
   U.S. economic stats.Benchmark stocks on the MICEX went down by 1.49% to
   1,376.88 points and by 2.16% to 1,460.67 points on the RTS Index.Futures
   on the RTS Index dropped against the base asset by 14.8 points, indicating
   a negative mood among investors.Decliners on the MICEX Stock Exchange were
   VTB (RTS: VTBR), down 2.4%, Gazprom (RTS: GAZP) - 2.5%, Gazprom Neft (RTS:
   SIBN) - 1.1%, MMC Norilsk Nickel (RTS: GMKN) - 2% and 2.9% on the RTS
   Index, Lukoil (RTS: LKOH) - 1.1%, Rosneft (RTS: ROSN) - 2%, Rostelecom
   (RTS: RTKM) - 1.5%, Sberbank (RTS: SBER) - 2.3% and 3.3% on the RTS and
   Surgutneftegas (RTS: SNGS) - 1.3%.Polyus Gold (RTS: PLZL) went up by 2.3%
   owing to rising gold prices.Posting losses among second tier stock on the
   MICEX were TGK-9 (RTS: TGKI), down 4.3%, Sollers (RTS: SVAV) - 4.2%, IDGC
   Holding - 4%, Novolipetsk Metallurgical Combine (NLMK) - 3.9% and MMK
   (RTS: MAGN) - 3.4%.Posting gains were Raspadskaya (RTS: RASP), up 4.4%,
   Irkutskenergo (RTS: IRGZ) - 2.4%, Transneft (RTS: TRNF) - 1.1% and
   North-West Telecom (RTS: SPTL) - 0.6%.Total RTS Classic Trading came to
   $8.057 million for the day, RTS Standard deals - $411.175 million and
   MICEX Stock Exchange transac tions - over 39.109 billion rubles.Ih(Our
   editorial staff can be reached at
   eng.editors@interfax.ru)Interfax-950140-ZXBADBAA

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   149) Back to Top
   Dollar Soars Over 20 Kopecks on MICEX, Euro Declines - Interfax
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 14:49:03 GMT
   MOSCOW. Aug 11 (Interfax) - The U.S. dollar increased substantially on the
   MICEX on Wednesday, hitting its highest point for August while the euro
   decrease following its performance on the Forex, declining oil prices and
   negative stock market trends. The ruble weakened slightly against the
   Central Bank's bi-currency bas ket.The dollar went up by 20.75 kopecks in
   MICEX trading to close at 30.2575 rubles/$1 while the euro decreased by
   12.7 kopecks to finish at 39.35 rubles/EUR1.The bi-currency basket (set at
   $0.55 and 0.45 euro) went up by six kopecks to 34.35
   rubles.Interfax-950140-THBADBAA

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   150) Back to Top
   Astronauts Begin Second Spacewalk To Repair ISS Cooling System -
   Interfax-AVN Online
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 13:37:07 GMT
   intervention)

   Astronauts begin second spacewalk to repair ISS cooling system (11.08.10
   17:20:45) WASHINGTON. Aug 11 (Interfax-AVN) - NASA astro nauts Tracy
   Caldwell Dyson and Doug Wheelock began their second spacewalk to work on
   fixing a failed cooling system on the U.S. segment of the International
   Space Station (ISS) on Wednesday. NASA said the unscheduled spacewalk was
   made from the Quest lock chamber of the U.S. segment and will last for
   6-6.5 hours. The astronauts are wearing U.S. Extravehicular Mobility Unit
   (EMU) space suits, one of two suits used by crew members on the ISS, the
   other begin the Russian Orlan suit. It is Wheelock's fifth spacewalk since
   2007 and Caldwell Dyson's second.(Description of Source: Moscow
   Interfax-AVN Online in English -- Website of news service devoted to
   military news and owned by the independent Interfax news agency; URL:
   http://www.militarynews.ru)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   &lt;/ div&gt;

   151) Back to Top
   Egyptian Press 11 Aug 10
   The following lists selected items from the Egyptian press on 11 August.
   To request additional processing, contact the OSC Customer Center at (800)
   205-8615 or OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Egypt -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 08:28:08 GMT
   http://www.ahram.org.eg/ http://www.ahram.org.eg/

   1. Article by Imad Uryan states that many signs indicate that a regional
   war involving Iran and probably Syria and Lebanon is "highly unlikely"
   this summer, since domestic conditions in the United States and its
   allies, as well as in Israel, are not favorable. The writer explains that
   the United States is "fighting three wars", in Iraq, Afghanistan and in
   the economic market. He believes it is "next to impossible for Israel&amp;
   quot; to wage war on Iran on its own. (p 6; 550 words)

   2. Article by Abd-al-Muhsin Salamah accuses the government of neglecting
   strategic agriculture and leaving arable lands to a group of brokers and
   profiteering merchants. The writer believes that the Russian wheat crisis
   will not be the last, as long as the government "persists in its random
   agricultural policy." (p 7; 500 words)

   3. Dispatch from Moscow argues that the disasters that affected Russia
   recently triggered "indirect competition" between the Russian president
   and his prime minister. (p 7; 1,200 words)

   Cairo Al-Akhbar -- state-owned daily; root URL:

   http://www.elakhbar.org.eg http://www.elakhbar.org.eg

   1. Article by Dr al-Sayyid Amin Shalabi examines the debate on whether or
   not skirmishes on the Lebanese borders constituted the prologue for war in
   light of an article by a German Middle East expert. (p 16; 1,000 words)

   Cairo Al-Jumhuriyah -- state-own ed daily; root URL:

   http://www.gom.net.eg http://www.gom.net.eg

   1. Report says 25 members of al-Ghad Party in al-Fayyum tendered their
   resignations to protest against rigging party elections. (p 1; 200 words)

   2. Editorial notes that the Israeli government refused to let the
   international fact-finding committee interrogate the soldiers who took
   part in the attack against the freedom fleet and opted for a "theatric
   investigation". (p 8; 120 words)

   Cairo Al-Wafd -- opposition New Wafd Party daily; root URL:

   http://www.alwafd.org http://www.alwafd.org

   1. Report cites Constitutional Jurist Dr Yahya al-Jamal as saying he
   handed Zakariya Azmi a memorandum detailing suggested constitutional
   amendments, hoping he would convey them to President Mubarak. However,
   al-Jamal has not received a reply, the report says, citing al-Jamal's
   remarks to a televised program on the "Modern Masr" network. (p 1; 120
   words)

   2. Report cites the Israeli Information and Document Center as saying the
   rockets that were fired on Elat and Aqaba came from a "moving truck in
   southern Sinai" (p 1; 150 words)

   3. Article by Ala Uraybi examines the need "to renew the Coptic religious
   statement", which he finds "insufficient" to establish a civilian state.
   (p 5; 500 words)

   4. Article by Muhammad Shirdi hopes the government will "fast on
   statements and promises in Ramadan" to avoid "sins" and spare writers the
   need to comment on their statements. (p 16; 600 words)

   5. Article by Muhammad Amin highlights Wafd chairman's remark that "Egypt
   is too big to be bequeathed to heirs". (p 16; 600 words)

   Cairo Al-Misri Al-Yawm --Independent daily focusing on domestic issues

   1. Front- page report says inflation reached 10.7 percent as a result of
   the hike in food prices by 15.7 percent in July. (p 1; 400 words)

   2. Report by team of correspondents says the campaign in support of Jamal
   Mubarak announced that it has collected 22,500 signatures. Meanwhile, the
   counter campaign "Egypt is too big for you" became more active in
   Damietta. The report cites NDP sources as saying Ahmad Izz issued strict
   instructions to party branches to refrain from joining campaigns in
   support of Jamal Mubarak. (p 3; 300 words)

   3. First part in a 2-part interview with Former Egyptian Ambassador in
   Washington Nabil Fahmi, in which he talks about Congress pressure on the
   Egyptian government in connection with the issue of Sa'd-al-Din Ibrahim
   and economic aid, as well as other issues. He talks about Egypt's
   relationship with Iran, the war on Iraq, Bush's last visit to Egypt, the
   issue of Ayman Nur, among other issues. (p 17; 3,500 words)

   Cairo Al-Dustur --Weekly edition of independent anti-regime daily
   newspaper

   1. Rerun of article by Chief Editor Ibrahim Isa on power transition in
   Egypt after Muba rak. The article wonders about the fate of a country
   "where businessmen, profiteers, corrupt people and a media with a blind
   conscience try to hand down to the president's son in exchange for
   sustained wealth and power." The article was originally published on 13
   May 2009. (p 3; 3,000 words)

   2. Special page by Muhammad al-Jarihi examines the campaign to bequeath
   power to Jamal Mubarak. Reports talk about "the club of bequeathal
   sponsors", which includes Jamal Mubarak, Ahmad Izz and NDP Media Secretary
   Ali-al-Din Hilal, in addition to other profiteers. A report in this
   special page cites politicians as they say the bequeathal project has
   failed. Another report reviews the "five sticks in the wheel of
   bequeathing power": ElBaradei, popular rejection of Jamal, Jamal's lack of
   charisma, rejection of the idea within the regime, and the ambiguous
   position of the military establishment. (p 4; 4,000 words)

   3. Article by Mukhtar Nuh examine s whether the Muslim Brothers can give
   up democracy and power transition to maintain the entity. (p 6; 4,500
   words)

   Cairo Rose Al-Yusuf --State-run daily newspaper

   1. Article by Abd-al-Qadir Shuhayb hopes people will adjust their conduct
   during the month of Ramadan and train themselves on how to engage in
   dialogue. (p 2; 700 words)

   Cairo Al-Shuruq Al-Jadid -- Independent pro-reform liberal daily,
   moderately critical of the government

   1. Report by team of correspondents cites the US ambassador as she
   declares her government's preparedness to cover a potential shortage in
   the Egyptian food market. The ambassador was speaking at a news conference
   at the Ministry of Agriculture. (p 1; 650 words)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   152) Back to Top
   US Observers Arrive At Russia's SKhK To Monitor HEU Deal - ITAR-TASS
   Wednesday August 11, 2010 07:30:19 GMT
   intervention)

   TOMSK, August 11 (Itar-Tass) -- A group of U.S. observers has arrived at
   the Siberian Chemical Combine (SKhK) in the town of Seversk, Tomsk Region
   to check Russia's performance under an interstate agreement on
   weapon-grade uranium treatment, traditionally referred to as Russia-U.S.
   HEU deal, an SKhK spokeswoman Yevgenia Suslova told Itar-Tass on
   Wednesday.During the next two weeks, the U.S. observers will conduct works
   at all the agreed inspection points at SKhK's chemical and metallurgical,
   isotope separation, and conversion plants, where highly enriched uranium
   (HEU) is downgraded to low enriched uranium (LEU), she said. Moreover,
   U.S. experts will conduct regular repl acement of radioactive sources at
   the LEU-HEU mixing control unit at the isotope separation plant. The
   control unit is equipped with non-destructive inspection devices that
   monitor the flow and concentration of the separated material in all flows
   in the mixing unit, where HEU is blended with LEU."The control unit makes
   it possible to verify that the Russian side strictly keeps to the
   Russia-U.S. HEU deal terms," Suslova stressed.The Megatons to Megawatts
   Program is a unique, commercially financed government-industry partnership
   in which bomb-grade uranium from dismantled Russian nuclear warheads is
   being recycled into low enriched uranium used to produce fuel for American
   nuclear power plants. The program is implemented under the Russian-U.S.
   agreement of February 18, 2009.SKhK was established during the Cold War
   period to liquidate the U.S. monopoly in nuclear weapons. After chiefs of
   Russian and U.S. nuclear power department signed in Vienna an agreement to
   shut down Russian reactors manufacturing weapon-grade plutonium in 2003,
   SKhK stopped its two plutonium-producing nuclear reactors in
   2008.Currently, SKhK engages in uranium enrichment for nuclear plants,
   both Russian and foreign. Under a national plan for the development of
   power facilities, it was decided to build Siberia's first nuclear plant on
   the base of the Siberian Chemical Combine.(Description of Source: Moscow
   ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.
</description>
    <date>2010-08-12 12:30:06</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/665593_usa-united-states-americas-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>translations@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>dialogbot@smtp.stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>667881</id>
    <title>BBC Monitoring Alert - INDIA
</title>
    <description>    Government declares Indian Kashmir floods a "national calamity"          
                                                                             
    Text of report by Indian news agency PTI                                 
                                                                             
    New Delhi, 15 August: The Indian government has declared the Leh         
    disaster as a "calamity of severe nature", allowing MPs [Members of      
    Parliament] to contribute 50 lakh [one lakh equals 100,000] rupees from  
    the Member of Parliament Local Area Development Scheme (MPLADS) towards  
    relief in the cloudburst-affected region.                                
                                                                             
    "In the event of calamity of severe nature in any part of the country,   
    an MP can recommend works up to a maximum of 50 lakh rupees for the      
    affected district," the lower house, Lok Sabha, and the upper house,     
    Rajya Sabha, secretariats have told the members.                         
                                                                             
    The funds in this regard would be released by the district authority of  
    the MP's constituency to the district authority of Leh in north India to 
    get permissible works done.                                              
                                                                             
    The works completion report, utilization certificate and audit           
    certificate for such works and funds will be provided by the district    
    authority of the affected districts to the respective district authority 
    from whom the funds were received.                                       
                                                                             
    Former Jammu and Kashmir [Indian-administered Kashmir] state Governor    
    Karan Singh had suggested that flash floods in Leh be treated as a       
    national calamity and offered 50 lakh rupees for relief and              
    rehabilitation work in case such a decision is taken.                    
                                                                             
    "I have suggested that this (the disaster) should be treated as a        
    'national calamity' so that MPs from all over the country can contribute 
    towards relief and rehabilitation from their MPLADS fund," Singh, a      
    senior Congress [Indian National Congress] leader and a Rajya Sabha MP,  
    had said.                                                                
                                                                             
    Source: PTI news agency, New Delhi, in English 0441gmt 15 Aug 10         
                                                                             
    BBC Mon SA1 SAsPol nj                                                    

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2010
</description>
    <date>2010-08-15 07:30:03</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/667881_bbc-monitoring-alert-india-.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>marketing@mon.bbc.co.uk</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>669777</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] [MESA] INDIA-Babri Masjid-Ramjanmabhoomi dispute
</title>
    <description>   Here are some thoughts from an Indian contact:

   If the court wants to rule on the issue and not skirt it once again by
   sending it for further reviews, the likelihood is that the it will rule
   the demolition as illegal and will rule in favor of Babri mosque.
   Judiciary is fair and strictly adheres to facts and provisions of law
   under which it is beyond doubt that the demolition was illegal. That is is
   why senior BJP leaders are facing criminal charges for their involvement
   in the demolition. It is very unlikely that this verdict will be any
   different. However, it may or may not rule on issue of whether there was
   any religious structure or not before the mosque was built and it might
   recommend further investigations. 
    
   I assume that the BJP leadership is also aware that the verdict might go
   against the demolition and thus they are talking about appealing to the
   Supreme Court and are asking people to stay calm. It is a fact that
   whatever the verdict is it will indeed go to the SC and will not resolve
   the matter.
    
   If the court does rule on the issue of the dispute and does not come up
   with a lame duck judgment leaving the issue unresolved, the chances are
   that there is will sporadic violence. Security has indeed been beefed up
   across the country and the law and order administration is ready to face
   the fallout of the verdict especially in view of the upcoming Commonwealth
   Games but they may still not be able to prevent violence because there
   will definitely be attempts to incite it. Some religious leaders are
   already saying that that they will not accept the verdict because the
   court has no jurisdiction over religious matters. There are reports that
   certain organizations are preparing for an adverse judgment. However, I
   still doubt that there will be widespread Hindu-Muslim riots across the
   country because of lack of mass involvement. Yet there might be stray
   cases of violence in some parts  of the country especially in the smaller
   cities.

   The court is deciding for the first time on the issue of title since the
   petition was first filed in 1885 in Faizabad. It will tread very carefully
   and take into account every single issue in its verdict. Given the
   sensitivity of the case, I have no doubt that It will be a
   watertight judgment.  Moreover, this judgment will have a direct bearing
   on the issue of demolition of the mosque and cases against senior BJP
   leaders. The title and demolition issues are intertwined and by deciding
   the title, if at all it does, the court will indirectly rule on the issue
   of demolition.

   On 9/22/2010 2:53 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     Thanks Animesh. Any updates you may have leading up to and on Sept. 24
     are appreciated.

     Animesh wrote:

 Verdict against Muslim would give impetus to IM/SIMI , radicals like PFI and other Pak trained and Kashmir centric groups to step up their activities in the name of Islam ('Islam in danger' argument). I donaEUR(TM)t consider Hindu Militants are that capable or dangerous. Rightwing groups like Siva Sena/MNS, RSS/VHP will do their protests...but nobody will go violent as they might not upset their chance in SUpreme Court.

 Again there is no support for them in the Society at large.Hindu groups could trigger vigilante activities for sure. The situation (of 1992/1993 era) has changed. Hindus are not following the 'Ram'/RSS/Safron brigade blindly...

 Well we can expect Riots/Stone pelting: in UP towns (Lucknow, Kanpur, Benares, Faizabad (the epicenter) and Gorakhpur have many sensitive places, mostly Walled Cities, Ghettos, and Muslim Bastis). Also in Kerala, in Hyderabad, in Mumbai there could be some tensions...but it wonaEUR(TM)t be too much for the security forces. Delhi might see some peaceful demonstrations...

   Animesh


 ----- Original Message -----
 From: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
 To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
 Cc: Middle East AOR &lt;mesa@stratfor.com&gt;, Animesh &lt;animesh.roul@stratfor.com&gt;
 Sent: Wed, 22 Sep 2010 13:25:08 -0500 (CDT)
 Subject: Re: [CT] [MESA] INDIA-Babri Masjid-Ramjanmabhoomi dispute


 &lt;html&gt;
 &lt;head&gt;
  
 &lt;/head&gt;
 &lt;body&gt;
 &lt;font size="-1"&gt;&lt;font face="Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif"&gt;One other
 question: could we also see Islamist militant groups launch attacks
 against Hindu or Muslim targets in the hope of igniting riots?&lt;br&gt;
 &lt;br&gt;
 &lt;/font&gt;&lt;/font&gt;Reva Bhalla wrote:
 &lt;blockquote cite="mid:9A2EC4D9-599F-4C2A-9DB9-C7A98566BD3A@stratfor.com"&gt;
   &lt;div&gt;Animesh, can you answer these questions for us? Thanks&lt;br&gt;
   &lt;br&gt;
 Sent from my iPhone&lt;/div&gt;
   &lt;div&gt;&lt;br&gt;
 On Sep 22, 2010, at 12:50 PM, Korena Zucha &amp;lt;&lt;a href="mailto:zucha@stratfor.com" target="_blank"&gt;zucha@stratfor.com&lt;/a&gt;&amp;gt; wrote:&lt;br&gt;
   &lt;br&gt;
   &lt;/div&gt;
   &lt;blockquote&gt;
     &lt;div&gt;&lt;font size="-1"&gt;&lt;font face="Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif"&gt;Any
 insight
 as to which way the high court is expected to rule over the Babri
 Masjid site? Are there any protests planned in India ahead of the
 ruling? It has been reported that security has already been increased
 in &lt;br&gt;
 some areas of India as a precaution. Also, can we expect to see
 Hindu-Muslim riots after the verdict?&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
     &lt;a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2010/09/22/hindu-right-hopes-fortunes-turn-on-babri-verdict/" target="_blank"&gt;http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2010/09/22/hindu-right-hopes-fortunes-turn-on-babri-verdict/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 The Allahabad High Court&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;trade;s verdict on whether the ruined structure at
 a
 disputed site in the town of Ayodhya in northern India is a mosque or a
 temple, as well as who has the rights over it, is expected on Friday.&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 It will be a monumental decision that in itself, and in its aftermath,
 will test India&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;trade;s ability as a nation to balance its plurality of
 faiths. But the Akhil Bharat Hindu Mahasabha, a Hindu nationalist group
 that is one of the parties on the Hindu side of the court case, is
 counting on the event to resurrect the appeal of Hindu nationalism and
 its political future.&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 Established in 1915, the group, whose name loosely translates as the
 All India Hindu General Assembly, claims to be India&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;trade;s first
 &amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;oelig;Hindu&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;A&amp;#65533;
 political party and aims to establish a &amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;oelig;really democratic Hindu
 state.&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;A&amp;#65533;&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 The main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party, formed in 1980, and its
 other affiliates, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (National Volunteers
 Group) and Vishwa Hindu Parishad (World Hindu Council), established in
 1925 and 1964 respectively, have their roots in the Hindu Mahasabha and
 espouse similar political ambitions.&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 The Hindu Mahasabha was briefly banned from contesting elections in the
 1990s because its manifesto didn&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;trade;t appear to uphold the secular
 values
 that India&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;trade;s Constitution mandates from every political party. After
 changing their manifesto and becoming a registered political party in
 1996, the group has had very little electoral support.&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 But the group appears to be trying to rally fervor for the Ram temple
 issue again. In Hindu belief, Ayodhya, the name of the town in Uttar
 Pradesh state where the disputed site is located, was the birthplace of
 the God Ram.&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 Acharya Madan Singh, executive president of the Hindu Mahasabha, told
 India Real Time that his group is the &amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;oelig;caretaker&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;A&amp;#65533; of the disputed
 Babri
 Masjid site, and maintains that the mosque was grafted onto a
 pre-existing temple when the Central Asian conqueror Babur invaded
 India in the 16th century.&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 &amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;oelig;Only the dome was added to the same temple by Babur&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;trade;s men in 1528
 that
 gave it a shape of a mosque,&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;A&amp;#65533; Mr. Singh says.&amp;nbsp; &amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;oelig;No namaz (Muslim
 prayer) was offered in that place ever.&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;A&amp;#65533;&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 Mr. Singh says that Babur &amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;oelig;occupied several temples and Hindu palaces
 to turn them into mosques and forts.&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;A&amp;#65533; Mr. Singh also calls the first
 ruler of the Mughal empire, which weakened as the British colonial
 conquest began, a &amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;oelig;terrorist.&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;A&amp;#65533;&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 Muslim groups differ with this understanding of history, saying their
 examination of historical documents and travel accounts from the time
 doesn&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;trade;t show any temple was demolished for the construction of Babri
 Masjid.&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 Hindu mobs demolished the mosque in December 1992, demanding the right
 to build a temple there. The demolition sparked sectarian riots into
 January, especially in Mumbai, that left many dead, more of them Muslim
 than Hindu.&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 Mr. Singh says his group was not involved in the demolition and says
 that the BJP, RSS and other groups who led mobs to destroy the mosque
 have wronged Hindu gods. He said the structure they destroyed was the
 remains of a temple that had existed since the birth of the Lord Ram
 hundreds of thousands years ago.&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 &amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;oelig;The BJP hijacked our issue,&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;A&amp;#65533; said Mr. Singh. &amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;oelig;We had told them
 &amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;tilde;you
 are destroying the temple.&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;trade; But they needed an emotional issue for
 winning Hindus.&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;A&amp;#65533;&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 BJP spokesman Prakash Javadekar says that his party wanted a temple
 built at the Ayodhya site, but that the demolition was not part of his
 party&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;trade;s plan.&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 &amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;oelig;BJP never wanted demolition but it happened,&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;A&amp;#65533; said Mr. Javadekar,
 whose party has been in disarray since losing back-to-back elections.&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 These days, some Indian political observers wonder if Hindu nationalism
 itself has lost its appeal.&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 In the larger political sphere, scores of commentators have argued one
 side or another of India&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;trade;s politico-religious tussles thrown into
 relief around this case. In court, 22 lawyers have argued for the
 structure to be recognized as Hindu against two lawyers arguing for it
 to be safeguarded as an Islamic property.&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 The court case initially began in 1950, when a Hindu petitioner asked
 for regular access to the Babri Masjid site for prayers and for idol
 worship, says H.S. Jain, the Hindu Mahasabha&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;trade;s lawyer. This was later
 clubbed together with several other suits by Hindu petitioners. The
 leading three petitioners each claim to be the only true representative
 of the country&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;trade;s Hindus.&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 On the other side, the Uttar Pradesh Sunni Central Board of Waqfs ,
 which supervises mosques and other sites of Sunni Islamic heritage in
 the state, and others filed a petition in 1961, asking for the removal
 of idols from the site and full possession to the property. Zufar
 Farooqui, the present chairman of the board, says the disputed site was
 registered with the board as a mosque in the 1940s.&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 Unless the Supreme Court defers the verdict, the Allahabad High Court
 in the state of Uttar Pradesh will have the uncomfortable task of
 weighing in all these claims Friday.&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 The government has asked for calm, whatever the outcome. Mr. Singh at
 the Hindu Mahasabha didn&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;trade;t appear to be giving any guarantees,
 although
 he did say the &amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;oelig;first recourse in case of an adverse verdict is the
 Supreme Court.&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;A&amp;#65533;&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 But he also added, &amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;oelig;If Ram temple is not made, every Hindu will come
 out of home for the sacrifice. If the law comes in between, the law
 itself has to be changed. Law should be according to the will of the
 Hindus to whom India belongs.&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;A&amp;#65533;&lt;/font&gt;&lt;/font&gt;
     &lt;/div&gt;
   &lt;/blockquote&gt;
 &lt;/blockquote&gt;
 &lt;/body&gt;
 &lt;/html&gt;

  
</description>
    <date>2010-09-22 21:36:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-11 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/669777_re-ct-mesa-india-babri-masjid-ramjanmabhoomi-dispute-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mesa@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>animesh.roul@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>671127</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] [MESA] INDIA-Babri Masjid-Ramjanmabhoomi dispute
</title>
    <description>THanks, Animesh.

I dont think the govt is going to take any  big risks on this. They  
can';t afford to with Kashmir going nuts rights now.


On Sep 22, 2010, at 1:33 PM, Animesh wrote:

&gt;
&gt; The verdict will certainly create chaos and sporadic violence.  and  
&gt; But we are not expecting large scale violence, like Godhra. Why? The  
&gt; case will and can go to Supreme Court next. So breather for  
&gt; alarmists here. People are more catious now than in 1992/3 or 2002.
&gt;
&gt; The govt already banned mass SMSes/MMSes, and ordered/urged to keep  
&gt; calm. leaders from both relgions are too urging respective community  
&gt; to keep calm and restraint.
&gt;
&gt; To me (and i have chated with many people on this), the High Court  
&gt; will take middle path and order to built Temple/Masjid near the  
&gt; Epicenter which might be used as 'Sarbadharma Sthal' (Place for all  
&gt; relgion). We have Temple/Mosque in two other place Mathura and  
&gt; Benaras, for example.
&gt;
&gt; The court might declare many BJP/VHP leader guilty ...this will  
&gt; create disturbance as well.
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; Animesh
&gt;
&gt; ----- Original Message -----
&gt; From: Kamran Bokhari &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; Cc: Reva Bhalla &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;, Middle East AOR &lt;mesa@stratfor.com 
&gt; &gt;, Animesh &lt;animesh.roul@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; Sent: Wed, 22 Sep 2010 12:34:05 -0500 (CDT)
&gt; Subject: Re: [CT] [MESA] INDIA-Babri Masjid-Ramjanmabhoomi dispute
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; &lt;html&gt;
&gt;  &lt;head&gt;
&gt;
&gt;  &lt;/head&gt;
&gt;  &lt;body&gt;
&gt;    &lt;font face="Times New Roman"&gt;I have heard that it could be in favor
&gt;      of the Muslims, which is why the right-wing Hindu militants are
&gt;      sharpening their knives and blades. Should it not be in favor of
&gt;      Muslims, this issues gives the jihadists another opportunity (in
&gt;      addition to the unrest in Kashmir) to exploit. Not hearing
&gt;      anything of pre-verdict demos though. Let me check with a source
&gt;      on this. &lt;br&gt;
&gt;    &lt;/font&gt;
&gt;    &lt;div class="moz-signature"&gt;
&gt;      &lt;style&gt;@font-face {
&gt;  font-family: "Cambria Math";
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&gt; 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: "Calibri","sans- 
&gt; serif"; }a:link, span.MsoHyperlink { color: blue; text-decoration:  
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&gt; WordSection1; }&lt;/style&gt;&lt;br&gt;
&gt;    &lt;/div&gt;
&gt;    On 9/22/2010 12:59 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:
&gt;    &lt;blockquote cite="mid:9A2EC4D9-599F-4C2A-9DB9-C7A98566BD3A@stratfor.com 
&gt; "&gt;
&gt;      &lt;div&gt;Animesh, can you answer these questions for us? Thanks&lt;br&gt;
&gt;        &lt;br&gt;
&gt;        Sent from my iPhone&lt;/div&gt;
&gt;      &lt;div&gt;&lt;br&gt;
&gt;        On Sep 22, 2010, at 12:50 PM, Korena Zucha &amp;lt;&lt;a href="mailto:zucha@stratfor.com 
&gt; " target="_blank"&gt;zucha@stratfor.com&lt;/a&gt;&amp;gt;
&gt;        wrote:&lt;br&gt;
&gt;        &lt;br&gt;
&gt;      &lt;/div&gt;
&gt;      &lt;blockquote&gt;
&gt;        &lt;div&gt;
&gt;          &lt;font size="-1"&gt;&lt;font face="Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif"&gt;Any
&gt;              insight
&gt;              as to which way the high court is expected to rule over
&gt;              the Babri
&gt;              Masjid site? Are there any protests planned in India  
&gt; ahead
&gt;              of the
&gt;              ruling? It has been reported that security has already
&gt;              been increased
&gt;              in &lt;br&gt;
&gt;              some areas of India as a precaution. Also, can we expect
&gt;              to see
&gt;              Hindu-Muslim riots after the verdict?&lt;br&gt;
&gt;              &lt;br&gt;
&gt;              &lt;br&gt;
&gt;              &lt;a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2010/09/22/hindu-right-hopes-fortunes-turn-on-babri-verdict/ 
&gt; " target="_blank"&gt;http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2010/09/22/hindu-right-hopes-fortunes-turn-on-babri-verdict/ 
&gt; &lt;/a&gt;&lt;br&gt;
&gt;              &lt;br&gt;
&gt;              The Allahabad High Court&amp;rsquo;s verdict on whether the  
&gt; ruined
&gt;              structure at a
&gt;              disputed site in the town of Ayodhya in northern India is
&gt;              a mosque or a
&gt;              temple, as well as who has the rights over it, is  
&gt; expected
&gt;              on Friday.&lt;br&gt;
&gt;              &lt;br&gt;
&gt;              It will be a monumental decision that in itself, and in
&gt;              its aftermath,
&gt;              will test India&amp;rsquo;s ability as a nation to balance  
&gt; its
&gt;              plurality of
&gt;              faiths. But the Akhil Bharat Hindu Mahasabha, a Hindu
&gt;              nationalist group
&gt;              that is one of the parties on the Hindu side of the court
&gt;              case, is
&gt;              counting on the event to resurrect the appeal of Hindu
&gt;              nationalism and
&gt;              its political future.&lt;br&gt;
&gt;              &lt;br&gt;
&gt;              Established in 1915, the group, whose name loosely
&gt;              translates as the
&gt;              All India Hindu General Assembly, claims to be  
&gt; India&amp;rsquo;s
&gt;              first &amp;ldquo;Hindu&amp;rdquo;
&gt;              political party and aims to establish a &amp;ldquo;really  
&gt; democratic
&gt;              Hindu state.&amp;rdquo;&lt;br&gt;
&gt;              &lt;br&gt;
&gt;              The main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party, formed in
&gt;              1980, and its
&gt;              other affiliates, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh
&gt;              (National Volunteers
&gt;              Group) and Vishwa Hindu Parishad (World Hindu Council),
&gt;              established in
&gt;              1925 and 1964 respectively, have their roots in the Hindu
&gt;              Mahasabha and
&gt;              espouse similar political ambitions.&lt;br&gt;
&gt;              &lt;br&gt;
&gt;              The Hindu Mahasabha was briefly banned from contesting
&gt;              elections in the
&gt;              1990s because its manifesto didn&amp;rsquo;t appear to  
&gt; uphold the
&gt;              secular values
&gt;              that India&amp;rsquo;s Constitution mandates from every  
&gt; political
&gt;              party. After
&gt;              changing their manifesto and becoming a registered
&gt;              political party in
&gt;              1996, the group has had very little electoral  
&gt; support.&lt;br&gt;
&gt;              &lt;br&gt;
&gt;              But the group appears to be trying to rally fervor for  
&gt; the
&gt;              Ram temple
&gt;              issue again. In Hindu belief, Ayodhya, the name of the
&gt;              town in Uttar
&gt;              Pradesh state where the disputed site is located, was the
&gt;              birthplace of
&gt;              the God Ram.&lt;br&gt;
&gt;              &lt;br&gt;
&gt;              Acharya Madan Singh, executive president of the Hindu
&gt;              Mahasabha, told
&gt;              India Real Time that his group is the  
&gt; &amp;ldquo;caretaker&amp;rdquo; of the
&gt;              disputed Babri
&gt;              Masjid site, and maintains that the mosque was grafted
&gt;              onto a
&gt;              pre-existing temple when the Central Asian conqueror  
&gt; Babur
&gt;              invaded
&gt;              India in the 16th century.&lt;br&gt;
&gt;              &lt;br&gt;
&gt;              &amp;ldquo;Only the dome was added to the same temple by  
&gt; Babur&amp;rsquo;s men
&gt;              in 1528 that
&gt;              gave it a shape of a mosque,&amp;rdquo; Mr. Singh  
&gt; says.&amp;nbsp; &amp;ldquo;No namaz
&gt;              (Muslim
&gt;              prayer) was offered in that place ever.&amp;rdquo;&lt;br&gt;
&gt;              &lt;br&gt;
&gt;              Mr. Singh says that Babur &amp;ldquo;occupied several  
&gt; temples and
&gt;              Hindu palaces
&gt;              to turn them into mosques and forts.&amp;rdquo; Mr. Singh  
&gt; also calls
&gt;              the first
&gt;              ruler of the Mughal empire, which weakened as the British
&gt;              colonial
&gt;              conquest began, a &amp;ldquo;terrorist.&amp;rdquo;&lt;br&gt;
&gt;              &lt;br&gt;
&gt;              Muslim groups differ with this understanding of history,
&gt;              saying their
&gt;              examination of historical documents and travel accounts
&gt;              from the time
&gt;              doesn&amp;rsquo;t show any temple was demolished for the
&gt;              construction of Babri
&gt;              Masjid.&lt;br&gt;
&gt;              &lt;br&gt;
&gt;              Hindu mobs demolished the mosque in December 1992,
&gt;              demanding the right
&gt;              to build a temple there. The demolition sparked sectarian
&gt;              riots into
&gt;              January, especially in Mumbai, that left many dead, more
&gt;              of them Muslim
&gt;              than Hindu.&lt;br&gt;
&gt;              &lt;br&gt;
&gt;              Mr. Singh says his group was not involved in the
&gt;              demolition and says
&gt;              that the BJP, RSS and other groups who led mobs to  
&gt; destroy
&gt;              the mosque
&gt;              have wronged Hindu gods. He said the structure they
&gt;              destroyed was the
&gt;              remains of a temple that had existed since the birth of
&gt;              the Lord Ram
&gt;              hundreds of thousands years ago.&lt;br&gt;
&gt;              &lt;br&gt;
&gt;              &amp;ldquo;The BJP hijacked our issue,&amp;rdquo; said Mr.  
&gt; Singh. &amp;ldquo;We had told
&gt;              them &amp;lsquo;you
&gt;              are destroying the temple.&amp;rsquo; But they needed an  
&gt; emotional
&gt;              issue for
&gt;              winning Hindus.&amp;rdquo;&lt;br&gt;
&gt;              &lt;br&gt;
&gt;              BJP spokesman Prakash Javadekar says that his party  
&gt; wanted
&gt;              a temple
&gt;              built at the Ayodhya site, but that the demolition was  
&gt; not
&gt;              part of his
&gt;              party&amp;rsquo;s plan.&lt;br&gt;
&gt;              &lt;br&gt;
&gt;              &amp;ldquo;BJP never wanted demolition but it  
&gt; happened,&amp;rdquo; said Mr.
&gt;              Javadekar,
&gt;              whose party has been in disarray since losing back-to- 
&gt; back
&gt;              elections.&lt;br&gt;
&gt;              &lt;br&gt;
&gt;              These days, some Indian political observers wonder if
&gt;              Hindu nationalism
&gt;              itself has lost its appeal.&lt;br&gt;
&gt;              &lt;br&gt;
&gt;              In the larger political sphere, scores of commentators
&gt;              have argued one
&gt;              side or another of India&amp;rsquo;s politico-religious  
&gt; tussles
&gt;              thrown into
&gt;              relief around this case. In court, 22 lawyers have argued
&gt;              for the
&gt;              structure to be recognized as Hindu against two lawyers
&gt;              arguing for it
&gt;              to be safeguarded as an Islamic property.&lt;br&gt;
&gt;              &lt;br&gt;
&gt;              The court case initially began in 1950, when a Hindu
&gt;              petitioner asked
&gt;              for regular access to the Babri Masjid site for prayers
&gt;              and for idol
&gt;              worship, says H.S. Jain, the Hindu Mahasabha&amp;rsquo;s  
&gt; lawyer.
&gt;              This was later
&gt;              clubbed together with several other suits by Hindu
&gt;              petitioners. The
&gt;              leading three petitioners each claim to be the only true
&gt;              representative
&gt;              of the country&amp;rsquo;s Hindus.&lt;br&gt;
&gt;              &lt;br&gt;
&gt;              On the other side, the Uttar Pradesh Sunni Central Board
&gt;              of Waqfs ,
&gt;              which supervises mosques and other sites of Sunni Islamic
&gt;              heritage in
&gt;              the state, and others filed a petition in 1961, asking  
&gt; for
&gt;              the removal
&gt;              of idols from the site and full possession to the
&gt;              property. Zufar
&gt;              Farooqui, the present chairman of the board, says the
&gt;              disputed site was
&gt;              registered with the board as a mosque in the 1940s.&lt;br&gt;
&gt;              &lt;br&gt;
&gt;              Unless the Supreme Court defers the verdict, the  
&gt; Allahabad
&gt;              High Court
&gt;              in the state of Uttar Pradesh will have the uncomfortable
&gt;              task of
&gt;              weighing in all these claims Friday.&lt;br&gt;
&gt;              &lt;br&gt;
&gt;              The government has asked for calm, whatever the outcome.
&gt;              Mr. Singh at
&gt;              the Hindu Mahasabha didn&amp;rsquo;t appear to be giving any
&gt;              guarantees, although
&gt;              he did say the &amp;ldquo;first recourse in case of an  
&gt; adverse
&gt;              verdict is the
&gt;              Supreme Court.&amp;rdquo;&lt;br&gt;
&gt;              &lt;br&gt;
&gt;              But he also added, &amp;ldquo;If Ram temple is not made,  
&gt; every Hindu
&gt;              will come
&gt;              out of home for the sacrifice. If the law comes in
&gt;              between, the law
&gt;              itself has to be changed. Law should be according to the
&gt;              will of the
&gt;              Hindus to whom India belongs.&amp;rdquo;&lt;/font&gt;&lt;/font&gt;
&gt;        &lt;/div&gt;
&gt;      &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&gt;    &lt;/blockquote&gt;
&gt;  &lt;/body&gt;
&gt; &lt;/html&gt;
&gt;
&gt; -- 
&gt; Animesh
</description>
    <date>2010-09-22 20:36:03</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-11 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/671127_re-ct-mesa-india-babri-masjid-ramjanmabhoomi-dispute-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mesa@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>animesh.roul@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>673212</id>
    <title>INDIA/CT/GV- Death toll from derailed train in India now at 60
</title>
    <description>[this news also has the Assam blast story that caused train derailment the =
end. Bad sunday for Indian railways)

Death toll from derailed train in India now at 60
AP=20
http://news.yahoo.com/death-toll-derailed-train-india-now-60-034936343.html



LUCKNOW, India (AP) =E2=80=94 Officials say the death toll from a train der=
ailment in northern India has risen to 60 as more bodies are being pulled o=
ut of the mangled coaches.

The senior army official in charge of rescue operations at the accident sit=
e says volunteers and soldiers have pulled out 60 bodies from 12 coaches of=
 the Kalka Mail, which went off the tracks Sunday afternoon.

Col. Amarjit Dhillon told the Associated Press on Monday that many more bod=
ies were trapped under the twisted coaches and soldiers were using gas cutt=
ers to slice through the metal.

Rescue workers working through the night rescued many of the more than 100 =
injured in the accident near the town of Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh state.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP=
's earlier story is below.

FATEHPUR, India (AP) =E2=80=94 Rescuers searched for survivors in the wreck=
age of a packed express train that derailed in northern India on Sunday aft=
ernoon, killing at least 31 people, while officials said a second train der=
ailment hundreds of miles (kilometers) to the northeast appeared to have be=
en caused by a remote-controlled bomb.

Rescuers were working to reach the second derailment, which occurred late S=
unday night in a rural area of Assam state, injuring at least 100. The two =
railway incidents did not appear to be related.

In the first crash, the Kalka Mail train was on its way to Kalka, in the fo=
othills of the Himalayas, from Howrah, a station near Kolkata in eastern In=
dia, when 12 coaches and the engine jumped the tracks at Malwan station, ne=
ar the town of Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh state, senior railway official A.K=
. Jain said.

The cause of the derailment was not immediately clear but it appeared that =
the driver applied the emergency brakes, Jain said.

At least 31 people were killed and rescue workers pulled at least 100 injur=
ed passengers out of the wreckage, said Brij Lal, a state police official.

Hours later, the second train derailed in the northeastern state of Assam, =
injuring at least 100 people, said S.K. Roy, a local magistrate.

Local police suspect that a remote control-triggered bomb caused four coach=
es of the Gauhati-Puri Express to be thrown off the tracks in the town of R=
angiya, about 30 miles (50 kilometers) west of the state's capital, Gauhati=
, Roy said.

S. Hajong, a local railways spokesman, said two of the four coaches plunged=
 into a pond and casualties are feared.

Roy did not blame any rebel group and no one has taken responsibility for t=
he attack so far. More than 30 groups in northeastern India have been fight=
ing for decades for independence or wide autonomy in the region, about 1,00=
0 miles (1,600 kilometers) east of New Delhi.

It was the third train accident in India in the last four days. A train hit=
 a bus at an unmanned railway crossing last Thursday, killing 35 people.

In Fatehpur, the accident site was a pile of twisted metal. At least one co=
ach flew above the roof of another ahead of it and was dangling precariousl=
y, television footage showed. Another coach was thrown away from the rest o=
f the train.

The toll was likely to rise as rescuers made their way through the coaches =
and used gas cutters to cut through the mangled metal, Lal said. Rescue eff=
orts continued late into the night.

"We're trying to cut into the coaches and rescue those still trapped inside=
," Lal said.

A senior railway official, H.C. Joshi, told CNN-IBN news channel that rescu=
ers were struggling to free at least five people pinned under the wreckage =
of one of the worst-damaged coaches.

Medical personnel rushed to the area, about 75 miles (120 kilometers) south=
east of Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh state.

Army helicopters were ferrying the most seriously injured victims to hospit=
als and 30 army engineers had joined the rescue efforts, Lal said.

TV stations showed local residents helping injured passengers away from the=
 train, several in makeshift stretchers, and breaking the windows of coache=
s to help those trapped inside.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh expressed "deep sorrow and shock" at the loss=
 of lives. The Railways Ministry announced compensation of 500,000 rupees (=
$11,000) for the families of those killed in the accident.

The number of passengers on board the Kalka Mail =E2=80=94 named for its pa=
st use in the postal service =E2=80=94 was not known. Express trains normal=
ly carry about 1,000 people and travel at speeds of 60-80 miles (100-130 ki=
lometers) per hour.

India's railroad network is one of the largest in the world and carries abo=
ut 14 million passengers a day. Accidents are common, with most blamed on p=
oor maintenance and human error.


--=20
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-17 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/673212_india-ct-gv-death-toll-from-derailed-train-in-india-now-at.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>watchofficer@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>animesh.roul@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>679231</id>
    <title>INDIA/PAKISTAN/CT- LeT planned to kill CM Modi using car: WikiLeaks
</title>
    <description>[We knew it...Wikileak (though not original source of Info, but acted as ve=
ctor/parasite) confirmed it...]

LeT planned to kill CM Modi using car: WikiLeaks

Monday, December 6, 2010, 8:32 [IST]=20


New Delhi, Dec 6: The United States diplomatic cables released by whistle-b=
lowing website WikiLeaks revealed that the terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba =
(LeT) had planned an attack on Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi.

The LeT planed the plot to assassinate Narendra modi just seven months afte=
r 2008 Mumbai terrorist attack. The plan was to kill Modi was described as =
"operations=E2=80=A6involving a car" in the diplomatic cable sent from the =
office of the Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton.

The cable described that the plot on Modi was planned by a Pakistan LeT mem=
ber Shafiq Khafa and scheduled to carry out by Indian LeT member Sameer Hus=
sein.

The cable sent on Jun 2009 said, "LeT member Shafiq Khafa, possibly prepari=
ng for operation, and Hussein -- an India-based Lashkar-e-Taiba member -- c=
ontinued operational planning on three tasks in early June. The tasks were =
associated with a possible operation against Gujarat chief minister Narendr=
a Modi, the establishment of a training camp and unspecified work involving=
 a car. Hussein would coordinate his activities with an India-based colleag=
ue identified as Sameer." Read: =E0=A4=B9=E0=A4=BF=E0=A4=A8=E0=A5=8D=E0=A4=
=A6=E0=A5=80 =E0=A4=AE=E0=A5=87=E0=A4=82 The cable also exposed that LeT wa=
s searching for ideal sites in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala for differe=
nt operations.


--=20
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/679231_india-pakistan-ct-let-planned-to-kill-cm-modi-using-car.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>os@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>animesh.roul@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>680421</id>
    <title>IRAN/ISRAEL/SYRIA/IRAQ/USA - Syrian press highlights 27 Jul 11
</title>
    <description>    Syrian press highlights 27 Jul 11                                        
                                                                             
    Syrian newspapers Al-Watan, Al-Ba'th, Al-Thawrah, and Tishrin highlight  
    the following on their front pages and in their opinion columns, on 27   
    July 2011: A report in Al-Watan entitled "Decree To Extend Mandate of    
    Local Councils. The Government is Continuing Reform and Approves the     
    Draft Law on Elections. Ghalawanji: The Province Has Been Kept as One    
    Constituency in the Elections of the People's Assembly"; a report in     
    Al-Watan indicating that a German envoy has met Al-Mu'allim, and Syrian  
    opposition in Damascus; an article in Al-Ba'th by Abd-al-Latif Umran     
    entitled "Law on Parties: Toward a New Social Contract"; an article in   
    Al-Thawrah entitled "Opponents... [But] No Opposition!"; the second part 
    of an unspecified number of parts of an article by Dr Mahdi Dakhlallah   
    in Tishrin, entitled "The Battle for a New Middle East (Part 2)"; and an 
    interview in Al-Watan with the secretary general of the Syrian Communist 
    Party, Hanin Nimr.                                                       
                                                                             
                           Al-Watan Online in Arabic                         
                                                                             
    I. Al-Watan runs a 616-word report entitled "Decree To Extend Mandate of 
    Local Councils. The Government Is Continuing Reform, and Approves the    
    Draft Law on Elections. Ghalawanji: The Province Has Been Kept as one    
    Constituency in the Elections of the People's Assembly." The report, by  
    Hassan Hachim, indicates that "President Bashar al-Asad issued yesterday 
    a legislative decree stipulating that local councils, and their current  
    executive offices, can continue to exercise powers assigned to them      
    under the Local Administration Act, until the formation of new councils, 
    while the government approved, in its meeting yesterday, the new draft   
    law on general elections, which includes 71 articles, and combines the   
    parliamentary elections and local council elections, applying the system 
    of the open list."                                                       
                                                                             
                           Al-Ba'th Online in Arabic                         
                                                                             
    II. In a 559-word article in Al-Ba'th entitled "Law on Parties: Toward a 
    New Social Contract," Abd-al-Latif Umran, chairman of the board of       
    directors, writes: "Political life in Syria has known a distinct social  
    contract, in a historic phase that had its own specificity; that was     
    with the approval of the multi-party system, and the issuance of the     
    charter of the National Progressive Front on 7 March 1972. However, that 
    charter was a national contract dominated by the political aspect at the 
    expense of the social one, in conditions that were very different from   
    the current reality." The writer adds: "After that, many local,          
    regional, and international changes occurred, and they required a lot of 
    talk based on the need to review, criticize, and evaluate; but the       
    charter has remained without review, although five key changes have      
    occurred in the organizational structure of the front." Umran continues: 
    "These changes, down to what we are experiencing today, requir! e of the 
    'old' parties reconsideration of their strategies and structures,        
    particularly with regard to their links to the masses in order for them  
    to continue to be able to mobilize [the masses] around their programs    
    and political approaches."                                               
                                                                             
                          Al-Thawrah Online in Arabic                        
                                                                             
    III. In a 289-word article under Al-Thawrah's Hot Spot opinion column,   
    entitled "Opponents... [But] No Opposition!," Khalid al-Ashhab writes:   
    "In a quick follow-up of some of the initial reactions to the approval   
    of the new Law on Parties by the Council of Ministers -- after it had    
    been available for public debate for more than a month -- coming from    
    some of the symbols of the opposition that calls itself national,        
    democratic, civil, juridical, and so on of the labels and descriptions   
    that are friendly on the face of it, they reveal objections that are     
    accusatory, verbally only, [although] some of them reach the level of    
    insults, and verbal abuse, and without any of the objectors -- 'symbols' 
    --providing any legal or constitutional argument against this law, and   
    without telling us the reason for their objection." Noting: "I do not    
    think that there is a law on political parties in the world that allows  
    for 1,000 people only to form their own party, except in th! e new       
    Syria," Al-Ashhab concludes: "And the Syrians might look for an excuse   
    for such people, [by saying] that any chronic political mobility, or     
    new, must produce people like them, at a certain stage or in a certain   
    circumstance, due to the lack of experience, or recklessness or          
    frivolity. But I think that there is another reason that is real and     
    sufficient standing behind such frivolity, recklessness, and urgency; it 
    is a reason that the majority of these opponents' 'symbols' refuse to    
    divulge, because it reveals their faults, namely, that they know in      
    their hearts, very simply and clearly, that they are unable to gather    
    only 1,000 Syrians to walk behind them, and be in their parties!"        
                                                                             
                            Tishrin Online in Arabic                         
                                                                             
    IV. In a 354-word article in Tishrin entitled "The Battle for a New      
    Middle East (Part 2)," Dr Mahdi Dakhlallah writes: "The state in which   
    the Arabs are in is strange, and contrary to the logic of historic       
    occurrence. The Arabs allied themselves with the victorious Allies in    
    WWI, but reaped from that the Sykes-Picot [Agreement] as 'a price' for   
    their confidence in the West. And in WWII, 'they gained' from their      
    Western allies the violation of Palestine, and the implementation of     
    Sykes-Picot, through [the creation of] small regional countries that are 
    almost similar to states." The writer adds: "The third world war, which  
    ended with the fall of the Soviet Union, was entered into by the Arabs   
    as allies of the West for the third time, as most Arab capitals, or,     
    rather, the vast majority of them, did not agree with the great          
    socialist country, and found themselves on the other side of the trench, 
    alongside the West... [ellipsis as received] itself. The Arabs emerg! ed 
    from this war alongside the victorious allies, and they had to, as       
    usual, pay for the price of the victory of their allies, through         
    intervention, aggression, and occupation (of Iraq), and rising support   
    for the results of the two previous wars (the support for the Zionist    
    entity)." Dakhlallah continues: "The conspiracy (why conspiracy?...      
    [ellipsis as received] everything is clear) was not limited to           
    confirming the previous results, but there is something new: to continue 
    the fragmentation, on sectarian and ethnic bases, and put an end         
    completely to a situation called the Arab situation, and a nation that   
    had an identity throughout history. It is a New Middle East, the map of  
    which has become known: the establishment of quarrelling entities on the 
    basis of religion here, race there, and the creation of a shaky reality  
    on the surface of which Israel floats as a judge, ruler, and dominator." 
    The writer goes on to say: "And there is a perception of a New Middle    
    East that wo! uld be governed by its sons, and in which will cooperate   
    ancient and g reat nations that have an important history in this        
    region, authentic cultural and human ties throughout history (the Arab,  
    Iranian, and Turkish nations), and that will be united by interests and  
    benefits; and one of the most important of these common interests is the 
    true independence (independence of the decision). A new Middle East in   
    which the remains of historic injustice, since WWI (aggression and       
    occupation), will be liquidated forever." He concludes: "The crime of    
    Syria, and the resistance, is that they firmly believe in the need for   
    the establishment of this New East that will be the antithesis of their  
    New Middle East. And this enters the collective psychological            
    environment of the peoples of the nations of this region, particularly   
    the Arab nation; while the real problem of the West is not in the        
    missing balance of power between the defenders of the colonial           
    perception, and those defending the perception of independence of this   
    stricken Middle East, as the balance! of physical powers is for the      
    benefit of colonialism, and its new media horns. The problem of          
    Westerners is that their perception is contrary to the nature of things, 
    and character of human beings, while the perception of independence      
    matches nature and character. And the battle continues."                 
                                                                             
    Sources: As listed                                                       
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEPol mbv                                                    

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011
</description>
    <date>2011-07-28 09:07:08</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/680421_iran-israel-syria-iraq-usa-syrian-press-highlights-27-jul-11.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>nobody@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:translations@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>translations@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>690483</id>
    <title>IRAN/ISRAEL/SYRIA/EGYPT/US - Senior Iran MP urges Muslim countries to
	defend Syria from USA
</title>
    <description>    Senior Iran MP urges Muslim countries to defend Syria from USA           
                                                                             
    A senior Iranian MP has urged Muslim countries to defend Syria against   
    US attacks, semi-official Fars News Agency reported on 10 August.        
                                                                             
    In a reply to a question by the Egyptian Al-Sharq al-Awsat radio         
    reporter, Borujerdi said that there were two options in regard with      
    Syria. "The first is putting Syria into the mouth of the wolf named      
    America and in this way to pave the way for NATO to attack Syria using a 
    pretext. It means that we will add another tragedy to our tragedies and  
    this contradicts the interests of the Islamic world," he added.          
                                                                             
    According to him, the second option is helping Syria with putting an end 
    to violence and pushing forward with reforms.                            
                                                                             
    The MP stressed that the interests of the Islamic world require everyone 
    to be united in order to preserve Syria as the centre of the Palestinian 
    resistance against Israel.                                               
                                                                             
    Borujerdi also said he agrees with Arab League chief Nabil al-Arabi's    
    views that dialogue and reforms should be continued in Syria.            
                                                                             
    Source: Fars News Agency website, Tehran, in Persian 0612 gmt 10 Aug 11  
                                                                             
    BBC Mon TCU ME1 MEPol 100811 sa/eg                                       

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011
</description>
    <date>2011-08-10 10:56:10</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/690483_iran-israel-syria-egypt-us-senior-iran-mp-urges-muslim.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>nobody@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:translations@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>translations@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>690728</id>
    <title>US/LATAM/FSU/MESA - Al-Jazeera TV panel discusses Syria unrest, USA,
	Turkey position -
	IRAN/US/RUSSIA/ISRAEL/TURKEY/LEBANON/SYRIA/QATAR/IRAQ/LIBYA
</title>
    <description>    Al-Jazeera TV panel discusses Syria unrest, USA, Turkey position         
                                                                             
    Al-Jazeera Satellite Channel Television in Arabic, independent           
    television station financed by the Qatari government, at 1904 gmt on 13  
    August broadcasts on its "Talk of the Revolution" programme a live       
    29-minute discussion, moderated by Hasan Jammul in the studio, on the    
    "the fate of the Syrian regime's pledge to effect substantive reforms    
    within only two weeks, given the developments on the ground where a      
    military solution is still being implemented".                           
                                                                             
    A video report is presented by Iman Ramadan on recent developments,      
    including the Turkish foreign minister's visit to Damascus, Hillary      
    Clinton's statement that the United States will escalate pressure on     
    Al-Asad's regime, urging "those countries still buying Syrian oil and    
    gas, those countries still sending al-Asad weapons, those countries      
    whose political and economic support give him comfort in his brutality,  
    to get on the right side of history". Ramadan also cites the US          
    permanent UN representative's remarks in this regard. She also cites     
    reports at the United Nations "that the Obama administration is          
    considering issuing a blunt call on the Syrian president to quit".       
                                                                             
    She says that "some neighbours of Syria" are of the opinion that         
    Al-Asad's regime is not responsible for the killing so far of at least   
    2,000 unarmed civilians but say that the responsible side is "the        
    Al-Qa'idah Organization, which is trying to spread trouble in Syria".    
    The report also cites Iraq's Al-Maliki's visit to Damascus, "noting that 
    many consider the Iraqi stand on the developments in Syria to be similar 
    to the Iranian stand". She also mentions the Saudi king's "unequivocal"  
    demands from the Syrian president", and the statement by an Iranian      
    official declaring support for Al-Asad's regime from the Arab League     
    headquarters in Cairo.                                                   
                                                                             
    To discuss this issue, Jammul hosts "Syrian opposition figure and        
    journalist" Farhan al-Matar, via satellite from Cairo; Samir Salihah,    
    professor of international relations at the Kocaeli University, via      
    satellite from Istanbul; and writer and journalist Yunus Awdah, via      
    satellite from Beirut.                                                   
                                                                             
                       Syria stepping up military action                     
                                                                             
    He begins by asking Awdah to explain the current strategy of the Syrian  
    regime, which, while reaffirming its intention to implement reforms, is  
    stepping up its military action. Awdah says that it is perfectly clear   
    that despite its changing tone, which sometimes escalates and sometimes  
    abates, the United States "does not trust any of those who call          
    themselves Syrian opposition, especially the armed groups, which are     
    managed through US moral and financial support", and adds: "The          
    Americans do not believe that all these groups that are opposing the     
    Syrian regime will be able to realize any victory against the regime.    
    Naturally, the regime also has a vision, based on its unshakeable        
    resolve that it will not change its policy. It is proceeding on two      
    lines: striking the armed insurgent groups and effect reform plans."     
                                                                             
    He says that the regime promised constitutional and other reforms,       
    noting that the "slogan of brining down the regime, as the United States 
    wants, is unrealistic".                                                  
                                                                             
    Asked to comment on the report that the United States is "considering    
    asking the Syrian president to quit", Awdah says the United States has   
    not asked him to quit but has said that he has forfeited his legitimacy, 
    adding that it uses the word "considering" and this is a diplomatic      
    language, arguing that this consideration might continue for ever, and   
    adding that the United States is perfectly aware of the "international   
    balance of forces" and is trying to gather supporters around it. He      
    adds: "Russia's international stand is still strong and I believe that   
    when Russia says that you should pressure the opposition to stop the     
    armed insurgents," its "international stand will be significant". He     
    says that statements by Obama and other administration officials         
    "clearly indicate that they do not trust the Syrian opposition" because  
    they have been concentrating on the call for "stopping the violence."    
                                                                             
    Jammul then turns to Farhan al-Matar and asks him to react to what Awdah 
    says. He replies: "I would like to ask Mr Awdah if he is a spokesman of  
    the Syrian government, because we want to know the basis of this         
    discussion between us. Awdah has conveyed the viewpoint of the Syrian    
    government and media in a much more successful way than the Syrian       
    government itself has been doing. He has adopted the idea that there are 
    armed gangs and groups. This does not provide a sound basis for this     
    discussion."                                                             
                                                                             
    Jammul tells Al-Matar that Awdah is here as a guest and he is airing his 
    viewpoint and "you can confront him with any idea you like". Al-Matar    
    objects to Awdah's contention that the United States does not trust the  
    Syrian opposition, and adds: "Who told you that we as a Syrian           
    opposition, or a Syrian people, trust the US Administration in the first 
    place, or pin any hopes on it? We do not trust the United States nor do  
    we trust the consequences of the US stand. If one day, or at one point,  
    we want to take an objective view and appreciate the facts of what is    
    happening, then we will thank it. We do not want more than that. We will 
    not kiss the hands of the United States or others. How can Mr Awdah      
    sponsor in this way the claim about armed groups? Has the regime, Mr     
    Awdah, with due respect to you, been able to prove the existence of      
    armed groups?"                                                           
                                                                             
                            ''Talking to dying man''                         
                                                                             
    Asked what will be the fate of the reforms and decrees that President    
    Al-sad has issued, Al-Matar says that talking about reforms now is like  
    talking to a dying man about the upcoming marriage of his son or his     
    son's intention to buy a house and furniture, and adds: "The talk about  
    the reforms that the regime has been presenting so far is unacceptable   
    because they are not logical or realistic. The talk about any reforms    
    begins with stopping this bloodbath, withdrawing the army, and           
    preventing the security services from persecuting the people," adding    
    that this should be followed by holding those with Syrian blood on their 
    hands accountable.                                                       
                                                                             
    He says: "Any talk about reforms is at least two months behind us. Now   
    we in Syria adopt only one slogan; The People Want To Bring Down the     
    Regime," adding that any other talk is a betrayal of the blood of the    
    martyrs.                                                                 
                                                                             
    Jammul then asks Salihah in Istanbul what prompted the Turkish officials 
    to talk about a new deadline, after they spoke of a "firm message," and  
    said that their patience was running out. He asks: "How can Turkey speak 
    of reforms led by President Al-Asad?" Salihah says that Turkey's         
    convictions are not based on the Syrian regime's promises. They are not  
    because Turkey feels that the Syrian leadership has changed its          
    position, and adds: "I think that Turkey built its calculations          
    basically on the principle that it does not want a neighbour to be       
    embroiled in a crisis with several serious consequences. Moreover, the   
    recent Turkish regional policy is based on a specific principle; namely, 
    to establish an atmosphere of peace and stability in the region. The     
    third point is as follows: I think that there is a large-scale           
    Arab-Islamic-Western backing for Turkey engaging the Syrian leadership   
    in talks as a final and decisive phase."                                 
                                                                             
    Salihah says that by agreeing to undertake this "adventure, Turkey has   
    placed its credibility - the credibility of the Justice and Development  
    Party, the credibility of Davutoglu, and the credibility of the Turkish  
    foreign policy, which has realized great achievements over the past      
    several years - in one basket and this credibility will be exposed to    
    danger at any moment. I also believe that Turkey has to consider the     
    consequences of a retreat from this endeavour and I think it has done    
    that, and that is what it told the Syrian leadership."                   
                                                                             
    He says that this morning, Gul said that "the Syrian leadership must     
    take a quick measure and change its policy and stand, otherwise it will  
    find it very difficult to restore matters back to what they were three   
    or four months ago, and it should benefit from the current climate,      
    learn a lesson, and launch a positive undertaking." He says that the     
    Syrian leadership has not undertaken any positive move since Davutoglu's 
    visit four days ago.                                                     
                                                                             
                          Turkey ''has not retreated''                       
                                                                             
    Salihah maintains that Turkey has not retreated from its position        
    towards Syria, noting that regional and international conditions have    
    created a consensus that the Syrian regime should be given a "last       
    chance". He adds that he would not be surprised that if the regime       
    continued its policy for a few days, Turkey might declare that "it has   
    begun a new approach in its relations with the Syrian regime, an         
    approach which will be adopted by the international community whose      
    centre of gravity will be the UN Security Council and the United         
    Nations."                                                                
                                                                             
    Asked to comment, Awdah says: "I would like to make it clear to Mr       
    Al-Matar that I am not speaking in the name of the Syrian regime or the  
    Syrian media. I have my own ideas and thinking and I observe             
    developments and make a lot of research before I have my say." He argues 
    that what Salihah says proves that the interfering international forces  
    assigned Turkey the task of taking the message and negotiating with      
    Syria, "which means that the entire world is plotting to reach a certain 
    result".                                                                 
                                                                             
    He adds: "If it is true that Mr Al-Matar does not want US interference,  
    then let this Syrian opposition say it, loud and clear, and issue a      
    clear statement, that it rejects US interference in Syrian affairs," and 
    adds: "Only then will this opposition become truly patriotic with no     
    external links."                                                         
                                                                             
    He says that US objectives are linked to Iraq and Israel, noting that    
    Israel has started to build a wall in the Golan "because it has made     
    certain calculations and has realized that the Syrian regime will win    
    this battle." He says that the West realizes that what happened in Libya 
    might also occur in Syria, and adds: "In Libya, the UN secretary general 
    - as well as NATO - has announced that the military solution has failed  
    there." He says that armed persons are killing Syrian soldiers and       
    police and throwing their bodies into rivers. He says that obviously the 
    Syrian regime will not "allow an armed insurgency on the Syrian          
    territory".                                                              
                                                                             
                       ''Patriotism" of Syrian opposition                    
                                                                             
    Al-Matar defends the "patriotism" of the Syrian opposition, saying that  
    it is an expression of the will of the Syrian people, adding that the    
    Syrian opposition has said, and repeated, that "we reject foreign        
    interference." He blames Awdah once again for "promoting a number of     
    lies by the Syrian regime".                                              
                                                                             
    Asked in conclusion what Turkey and the international community will do  
    if the deadline that Turkey has given to Syria expires without Syria     
    implementing what Davutoglu and Erdogan demanded, Salihah first denies   
    what Awdah said; namely, that Turkey's intervention has been an          
    "authorization," linking Turkey to a "plot."                             
                                                                             
    He adds: "I think that if the official Syrian mentality does not abandon 
    this thinking, these ideas, we will not reach any useful result.         
    Regrettably the course of the current events proves that four days after 
    Davutoglu's return from Damascus no useful result has been reached that  
    would decide matters and begin using the language of dialogue and        
    understanding between the two sides."                                    
                                                                             
    Salihah says that Turkey wants to realize what the Syrian people want    
    and to translate the reforms on the ground as quickly as possible, and   
    that a new chapter in the history of Syria would begin, noting that all  
    indications now point to the contrary.                                   
                                                                             
    He adds: "Turkey will be part of an international group that will move   
    to exercise more pressure on Syrian to compel it to retreat from its     
    position." Asked if this will take a military form, he replies: "No, it  
    will be diplomatic, political, and perhaps economic, but I do not think  
    that Turkey will take any military action in this direction. One more    
    point, if you please. I think that Turkey is not only meeting and        
    consulting with Arab and Islamic leaders, but large-scale contacts are   
    taking place involving the West as a whole and Russia. Turkey is also    
    sending messages to Tehran and to a number of figures inside Lebanon. I  
    think Turkey is launching a comprehensive campaign in this connection."  
                                                                             
    Source: Al-Jazeera TV, Doha, in Arabic 1904 gmt 13 Aug 11                
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEEauosc EU1 EuroPol 140811 mr                               

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011
</description>
    <date>2011-08-14 18:26:08</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/690728_us-latam-fsu-mesa-al-jazeera-tv-panel-discusses-syria-unrest.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>translations@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>690823</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] [MESA] INDIA-Babri Masjid-Ramjanmabhoomi dispute
</title>
    <description>   Thanks Animesh. Any updates you may have leading up to and on Sept. 24 are
   appreciated.

   Animesh wrote:

 Verdict against Muslim would give impetus to IM/SIMI , radicals like PFI and other Pak trained and Kashmir centric groups to step up their activities in the name of Islam ('Islam in danger' argument). I donaEUR(TM)t consider Hindu Militants are that capable or dangerous. Rightwing groups like Siva Sena/MNS, RSS/VHP will do their protests...but nobody will go violent as they might not upset their chance in SUpreme Court.

 Again there is no support for them in the Society at large.Hindu groups could trigger vigilante activities for sure. The situation (of 1992/1993 era) has changed. Hindus are not following the 'Ram'/RSS/Safron brigade blindly...

 Well we can expect Riots/Stone pelting: in UP towns (Lucknow, Kanpur, Benares, Faizabad (the epicenter) and Gorakhpur have many sensitive places, mostly Walled Cities, Ghettos, and Muslim Bastis). Also in Kerala, in Hyderabad, in Mumbai there could be some tensions...but it wonaEUR(TM)t be too much for the security forces. Delhi might see some peaceful demonstrations...

   Animesh


 ----- Original Message -----
 From: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
 To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
 Cc: Middle East AOR &lt;mesa@stratfor.com&gt;, Animesh &lt;animesh.roul@stratfor.com&gt;
 Sent: Wed, 22 Sep 2010 13:25:08 -0500 (CDT)
 Subject: Re: [CT] [MESA] INDIA-Babri Masjid-Ramjanmabhoomi dispute


 &lt;html&gt;
 &lt;head&gt;
  
 &lt;/head&gt;
 &lt;body&gt;
 &lt;font size="-1"&gt;&lt;font face="Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif"&gt;One other
 question: could we also see Islamist militant groups launch attacks
 against Hindu or Muslim targets in the hope of igniting riots?&lt;br&gt;
 &lt;br&gt;
 &lt;/font&gt;&lt;/font&gt;Reva Bhalla wrote:
 &lt;blockquote cite="mid:9A2EC4D9-599F-4C2A-9DB9-C7A98566BD3A@stratfor.com"&gt;
   &lt;div&gt;Animesh, can you answer these questions for us? Thanks&lt;br&gt;
   &lt;br&gt;
 Sent from my iPhone&lt;/div&gt;
   &lt;div&gt;&lt;br&gt;
 On Sep 22, 2010, at 12:50 PM, Korena Zucha &amp;lt;&lt;a href="mailto:zucha@stratfor.com" target="_blank"&gt;zucha@stratfor.com&lt;/a&gt;&amp;gt; wrote:&lt;br&gt;
   &lt;br&gt;
   &lt;/div&gt;
   &lt;blockquote&gt;
     &lt;div&gt;&lt;font size="-1"&gt;&lt;font face="Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif"&gt;Any
 insight
 as to which way the high court is expected to rule over the Babri
 Masjid site? Are there any protests planned in India ahead of the
 ruling? It has been reported that security has already been increased
 in &lt;br&gt;
 some areas of India as a precaution. Also, can we expect to see
 Hindu-Muslim riots after the verdict?&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
     &lt;a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2010/09/22/hindu-right-hopes-fortunes-turn-on-babri-verdict/" target="_blank"&gt;http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2010/09/22/hindu-right-hopes-fortunes-turn-on-babri-verdict/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 The Allahabad High Court&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;trade;s verdict on whether the ruined structure at
 a
 disputed site in the town of Ayodhya in northern India is a mosque or a
 temple, as well as who has the rights over it, is expected on Friday.&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 It will be a monumental decision that in itself, and in its aftermath,
 will test India&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;trade;s ability as a nation to balance its plurality of
 faiths. But the Akhil Bharat Hindu Mahasabha, a Hindu nationalist group
 that is one of the parties on the Hindu side of the court case, is
 counting on the event to resurrect the appeal of Hindu nationalism and
 its political future.&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 Established in 1915, the group, whose name loosely translates as the
 All India Hindu General Assembly, claims to be India&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;trade;s first
 &amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;oelig;Hindu&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;A&amp;#157;
 political party and aims to establish a &amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;oelig;really democratic Hindu
 state.&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;A&amp;#157;&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 The main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party, formed in 1980, and its
 other affiliates, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (National Volunteers
 Group) and Vishwa Hindu Parishad (World Hindu Council), established in
 1925 and 1964 respectively, have their roots in the Hindu Mahasabha and
 espouse similar political ambitions.&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 The Hindu Mahasabha was briefly banned from contesting elections in the
 1990s because its manifesto didn&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;trade;t appear to uphold the secular
 values
 that India&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;trade;s Constitution mandates from every political party. After
 changing their manifesto and becoming a registered political party in
 1996, the group has had very little electoral support.&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 But the group appears to be trying to rally fervor for the Ram temple
 issue again. In Hindu belief, Ayodhya, the name of the town in Uttar
 Pradesh state where the disputed site is located, was the birthplace of
 the God Ram.&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 Acharya Madan Singh, executive president of the Hindu Mahasabha, told
 India Real Time that his group is the &amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;oelig;caretaker&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;A&amp;#157; of the disputed
 Babri
 Masjid site, and maintains that the mosque was grafted onto a
 pre-existing temple when the Central Asian conqueror Babur invaded
 India in the 16th century.&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 &amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;oelig;Only the dome was added to the same temple by Babur&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;trade;s men in 1528
 that
 gave it a shape of a mosque,&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;A&amp;#157; Mr. Singh says.&amp;nbsp; &amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;oelig;No namaz (Muslim
 prayer) was offered in that place ever.&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;A&amp;#157;&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 Mr. Singh says that Babur &amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;oelig;occupied several temples and Hindu palaces
 to turn them into mosques and forts.&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;A&amp;#157; Mr. Singh also calls the first
 ruler of the Mughal empire, which weakened as the British colonial
 conquest began, a &amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;oelig;terrorist.&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;A&amp;#157;&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 Muslim groups differ with this understanding of history, saying their
 examination of historical documents and travel accounts from the time
 doesn&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;trade;t show any temple was demolished for the construction of Babri
 Masjid.&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 Hindu mobs demolished the mosque in December 1992, demanding the right
 to build a temple there. The demolition sparked sectarian riots into
 January, especially in Mumbai, that left many dead, more of them Muslim
 than Hindu.&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 Mr. Singh says his group was not involved in the demolition and says
 that the BJP, RSS and other groups who led mobs to destroy the mosque
 have wronged Hindu gods. He said the structure they destroyed was the
 remains of a temple that had existed since the birth of the Lord Ram
 hundreds of thousands years ago.&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 &amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;oelig;The BJP hijacked our issue,&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;A&amp;#157; said Mr. Singh. &amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;oelig;We had told them
 &amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;tilde;you
 are destroying the temple.&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;trade; But they needed an emotional issue for
 winning Hindus.&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;A&amp;#157;&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 BJP spokesman Prakash Javadekar says that his party wanted a temple
 built at the Ayodhya site, but that the demolition was not part of his
 party&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;trade;s plan.&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 &amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;oelig;BJP never wanted demolition but it happened,&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;A&amp;#157; said Mr. Javadekar,
 whose party has been in disarray since losing back-to-back elections.&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 These days, some Indian political observers wonder if Hindu nationalism
 itself has lost its appeal.&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 In the larger political sphere, scores of commentators have argued one
 side or another of India&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;trade;s politico-religious tussles thrown into
 relief around this case. In court, 22 lawyers have argued for the
 structure to be recognized as Hindu against two lawyers arguing for it
 to be safeguarded as an Islamic property.&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 The court case initially began in 1950, when a Hindu petitioner asked
 for regular access to the Babri Masjid site for prayers and for idol
 worship, says H.S. Jain, the Hindu Mahasabha&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;trade;s lawyer. This was later
 clubbed together with several other suits by Hindu petitioners. The
 leading three petitioners each claim to be the only true representative
 of the country&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;trade;s Hindus.&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 On the other side, the Uttar Pradesh Sunni Central Board of Waqfs ,
 which supervises mosques and other sites of Sunni Islamic heritage in
 the state, and others filed a petition in 1961, asking for the removal
 of idols from the site and full possession to the property. Zufar
 Farooqui, the present chairman of the board, says the disputed site was
 registered with the board as a mosque in the 1940s.&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 Unless the Supreme Court defers the verdict, the Allahabad High Court
 in the state of Uttar Pradesh will have the uncomfortable task of
 weighing in all these claims Friday.&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 The government has asked for calm, whatever the outcome. Mr. Singh at
 the Hindu Mahasabha didn&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;trade;t appear to be giving any guarantees,
 although
 he did say the &amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;oelig;first recourse in case of an adverse verdict is the
 Supreme Court.&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;A&amp;#157;&lt;br&gt;
     &lt;br&gt;
 But he also added, &amp;acirc;&amp;euro;&amp;oelig;If Ram temple is not made, every Hindu will come
 out of home for the sacrifice. If the law comes in between, the law
 itself has to be changed. Law should be according to the will of the
 Hindus to whom India belongs.&amp;acirc;&amp;euro;A&amp;#157;&lt;/font&gt;&lt;/font&gt;
     &lt;/div&gt;
   &lt;/blockquote&gt;
 &lt;/blockquote&gt;
 &lt;/body&gt;
 &lt;/html&gt;

  
</description>
    <date>2010-09-22 20:53:46</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-11 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/690823_re-ct-mesa-india-babri-masjid-ramjanmabhoomi-dispute-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>700446</id>
    <title>PAKISTAN/US- Plea to ban WikiLeaks dismissed
</title>
    <description>
[This leaks biz is getting out of hand in India and Pak as well. In think tanks and media circle (esp in India) US is loosing its stature for double standard and people are praising wikileaks...Very hard to regain the lost ground for US...AR]


Plea to ban WikiLeaks dismissed
Updated at: 0918 PST, Friday, December 03, 2010
http://www.geo.tv/


 LAHORE: The Lahore High Court has dismissed a plea by a local lawyer Arif Gondal to ban the WikiLeaks in Pakistan, Geo News reported Friday.The petitioner was of the view that the leaks were defaming the leadership of the country and must be banned inside Pakistan.

-- 
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/700446_pakistan-us-plea-to-ban-wikileaks-dismissed-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>os@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>702691</id>
    <title>IRAN/US/ISRAEL/SYRIA - Iran officials accuses USA,
	Israel of interfering in Syria
</title>
    <description>    Iran officials accuses USA, Israel of interfering in Syria               
                                                                             
    Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman has accused the United States and      
    Israel of destabilizing the situation in Syria and urged regional        
    countries to be vigilant.                                                
                                                                             
    "What causes instability and insecurity in Syria, and the Americans and  
    Zionists are trying to fan the flames of it in our region, is the        
    interference of other countries in Syria's internal affairs and the      
    destabilization of this country in order to create an exit for the       
    Zionist regime," Ramin Mehmanparast said at a news conference broadcast  
    live by Iran's state news channel (IRINN) on 13 September.               
                                                                             
    "Our recommendation to all regional countries is to be vigilant about    
    American and Zionist tricks," he said.                                   
                                                                             
    "That foreign states should not interfere in the internal affairs of     
    regional countries is a principle, and we have always insisted on it,"   
    Mehmanparast added.                                                      
                                                                             
    "We think that power in countries should be based on support from most   
    people, not on dependence on other countries, especially Western         
    countries," he said.                                                     
                                                                             
    Source: Islamic Republic of Iran News Network, Tehran, in Persian 0533   
    gmt 13 Sep 11                                                            
                                                                             
    BBC Mon Alert TCU ME1 MEPol 130911 ea/ek                                 

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011
</description>
    <date>2011-09-13 08:58:08</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/702691_iran-us-israel-syria-iran-officials-accuses-usa-israel-of.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>703732</id>
    <title>IRAN/US/TURKEY/SYRIA - Turkey, USA sign memorandum on radar deployment
</title>
    <description>    Turkey, USA sign memorandum on radar deployment                          
                                                                             
    Text of report in English by Turkish newspaper Today's Zaman website on  
    14 September                                                             
                                                                             
    [Unattributed report: "Turkey, US sign agreement on NATO radar           
    deployment"]                                                             
                                                                             
    Turkey and US officials signed a memorandum on deployment of a US radar  
    as part of a NATO-backed missile defence system designed to prevent      
    European members of the alliance from missile threats.                   
                                                                             
    The X-band radar will be deployed at a military base in the eastern      
    province of Malatya.                                                     
                                                                             
    NATO members agreed to an anti-missile system over Europe to protect     
    against Iranian ballistic missiles at a summit in Lisbon last year. A    
    compromise was reached with Turkey, which has cultivated close ties with 
    its neighbour Iran and had threatened to block the deal if Iran is       
    explicitly named as a threat.                                            
                                                                             
    At the NATO summit of heads of state and government in Lisbon last year, 
    Turkey formally backed NATO plans to build a missile defence system,     
    saying it will also contribute to national defence against the growing   
    threat of ballistic missile proliferation.                               
                                                                             
    The summit came after months of discussions between Turkey and the US,   
    in particular over some aspects of the proposed shield, most notably     
    whether countries such as Turkey's neighbours Iran and Syria should be   
    named as potential threats. Ankara insisted that the proposed system     
    should provide protection for all territories of member states and that  
    reference to any country would undermine the defensive nature of the     
    shield by antagonizing countries singled out as a threat. The Turkish    
    insistence paid off in the end as the NATO summit endorsed the missile   
    defence system plans without naming any country as a potential threat.   
                                                                             
    Ankara on Sept. 2 announced its decision to host the early-warning radar 
    as a contribution to NATO's missile defence system. Turkey's decision    
    annoyed Iran, which said saying Tehran would not tolerate any aggression 
    against its national interests. "The West claims the radar system (in    
    Turkey) is to confront Iranian missiles but they should be aware that we 
    will not tolerate any aggression against our national interests,"        
    Iranian Defence Minister Ahmad Vahidi was quoted by state TV as saying.  
                                                                             
    The Turkish and US governments say the radar system will help spot       
    missile threats coming from outside Europe, including potentially from   
    Iran. The system, provided by the United States, is to become            
    operational later this year.                                             
                                                                             
    Source: Zaman website, Istanbul, in English 14 Sep 11                    
                                                                             
    BBC Mon EU1 EuroPol 140911 sa/osc                                        

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011
</description>
    <date>2011-09-14 14:35:05</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/703732_iran-us-turkey-syria-turkey-usa-sign-memorandum-on-radar.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>706245</id>
    <title>CHINA/PAKISTAN/INDIA/SRI LANKA/MYANMAR - Security tightened in
	India's Andaman and Lakshadweep islands - PTI
</title>
    <description>    Security tightened in India's Andaman and Lakshadweep islands - PTI      
                                                                             
    Text of report by Indian news agency PTI                                 
                                                                             
    New Delhi, 2 Sept: Against the backdrop of reports of increased Chinese  
    presence in the Indian Ocean, Indian government has beefed up security   
    in the strategically located Andaman and Nicobar and Lakshadweep         
    islands.                                                                 
                                                                             
    "The government is aware of strategic importance of Andaman and Nicobar  
    Islands and Lakshadweep and has been taking steps to enhance security in 
    the two Union Territories," Home Minister P Chidambaram said here on     
    Friday.                                                                  
                                                                             
    Chidambaram said a unified command has already been set up in Andaman    
    and Nicobar Islands to achieve strategic objectives.                     
                                                                             
    "Additional police forces have been sanctioned for both Andaman and      
    Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep," he said at the meeting of the          
    Consultative Committee of the Home Ministry.                             
                                                                             
    New Delhi has taken note of China constructing ports in Myanmar, Sri     
    Lanka and Pakistan, India's three immediate neighbours.                  
                                                                             
    The Home Minister said connectivity is a major issue in Lakshadweep and  
    Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the government is addressing it.         
                                                                             
    Dispelling the impression that there is no representative democracy in   
    the UTs which have no assemblies, Chidambaram pointed out that panchayat 
    bodies are in place in all such UTs.                                     
                                                                             
    Referring to Chandigarh, the Home Minister said the UT administration    
    was preparing a Master Plan 2031 which was aimed at sustainable          
    development of Chandigarh while retaining its essential character.       
                                                                             
    Earlier, taking part in the discussion, members highlighted issues like  
    increasing population of Chandigarh, over-industrialisation of Daman and 
    Diu, potential of Andaman and Nicobar Islands as an international        
    tourist destination, more assistance to those affected by the Tsunami in 
    Andaman and Nicobar Islands and need for better connectivity in some     
    UTs, an official release said.                                           
                                                                             
    Those who attended Friday's meeting included Ashok Sekhar Ganguly, H K   
    Dua and Mohd. Ali Khan from Rajya Sabha and Thokchom Meinya from the Lok 
    Sabha.                                                                   
                                                                             
    Minister of State for Home Mullapally Ramachandran also attended the     
    meeting.                                                                 
                                                                             
    Source: PTI news agency, New Delhi, in English 1345gmt 02 Sep 11         
                                                                             
    BBC Mon SA1 SAsPol ams                                                   

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011
</description>
    <date>2011-09-03 08:57:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-13 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/706245_china-pakistan-india-sri-lanka-myanmar-security-tightened-in.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>nobody@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:translations@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>translations@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>707735</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] [OS] S3* - SPAIN/CUBA - Spain arrests suspected Cuban AQ
 operative
</title>
    <description>   sounds like another grassroots propagandist with no real operational
   plans.  But Majorca would've been a pretty high profile target. (the
   spanish should arrest the doping doctors on the islands too)

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marc Lanthemann" &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: alerts@stratfor.com
   Sent: Tuesday, September 20, 2011 3:34:09 PM
   Subject: [OS] S3* - SPAIN/CUBA - Spain arrests suspected Cuban AQ
   operative

   cuban aq?

   http://www.cnn.com/2011/09/20/world/europe/spain-al-qaeda-arrest/

                   Spain arrests suspected al Qaeda operative

   From Al Goodman, CNN
   updated 2:43 PM EST, Tue September 20, 2011
   STORY HIGHLIGHTS
     * NEW: The suspect has been taken to Madrid for arraignment
     * The Cuban national was arrested on the resort island of Mallorca
     * Spanish authorities say he was attempting to recruit for al Qaeda
     * Mallorca is a popular tourist draw for many Europeans

   Madrid, Spain (CNN) -- Spanish Civil Guards have arrested a Cuban man on
   the Mediterranean island of Mallorca on suspicion of belonging to Al
   Qaeda, the Interior Ministry said in a statement Tuesday.

   The suspect, identified only by his initials J.E.F.M., "had undergone a
   process of radicalization in recent years," the statement said. The arrest
   was made in Cala Ratjada, on the northeast side of Mallorca, about 80
   kilometers (50 miles) from the island's capital, Palma de Mallorca.

   Authorities have been investigating the suspect since last year. He is
   wanted for allegedly recruiting and indoctrinating others for the
   terrorist group and for distributing public messages aimed at provoking
   terrorist attacks, the statement said.

   Spain's Balearic archipelago in the Mediterranean is a popular tourist
   resort for Spaniards and others from Europe, with large contingents of
   Britons and Germans visiting or residing there.

   An Interior Ministry spokeswoman, speaking under customary anonymity, said
   the 24-year-old suspect has been taken to Madrid for arraignment before
   the National Court, which handles terrorism cases. Under Spanish law, he
   can be held for up to 72 hours before arraignment.

   The suspect had 1,120 radical videos on the Internet, mostly produced by
   him, and he was the administrator of various internet channels, the
   Interior Ministry said. He used the internet for the radical
   indoctrination of other individuals, the statement said.

   Authorities seized various portable computers, external hard drives and
   USB memory sticks, according to the ministry.

   Since the Madrid train bombings of 2004 that killed 191 people and wounded
   1,800 others, Spanish police have arrested more than 400 suspected al
   Qaeda militants or collaborators. Most have been of North African or
   Middle Eastern origin, with a few from Latin America, the spokeswoman
   said.

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   Office: +1 512-279-9479
   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-09-21 13:21:06</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-06 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/707735_re-ct-os-s3-spain-cuba-spain-arrests-suspected-cuban-aq.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>715832</id>
    <title>KAZAKHSTAN/GEORGIA/OMAN/ROMANIA/BULGARIA - Bulgarian energy minister
	discusses "wider access" of Kazakh gas, oil to Europe
</title>
    <description>    Bulgarian energy minister discusses "wider access" of Kazakh gas, oil to 
    Europe                                                                   
                                                                             
    Text of report in English by Bulgarian national news agency BTA          
                                                                             
    Astana/Sofia, October 4 (BTA) - Kazakhstan is keeping an eye on the      
    opportunities for increasing the supply and transit of Kazakh oil to/via 
    Bulgaria and the European Union, Kairgeldy Kabyldin, president of        
    Kazakhstan's oil and gas company KazMunayGas, said on Tuesday [ 4        
    October]. He met with Bulgarian Economy, Energy and Tourism Minister     
    Traycho Traykov during the latter's official visit to Astana, Traikov's  
    ministry reported.                                                       
                                                                             
    KazMunayGas is present on the Bulgarian market through the Rompetrol     
    network of filling stations which sell fuel from the company's           
    refineries in Romania.                                                   
                                                                             
    Traykov and Kabyldin discussed possibilities for Europe to have wider    
    access to Kazakh oil and gas. Seventy per cent of the Central Asian      
    country's oil exports go to Europe. In its development programme for the 
    period until 2020, the country envisages an expansion of its gas markets 
    mainly through the Black Sea basin. One way to achieve that is to start  
    transporting compressed gas from the Caspian Sea via the Azeri capital   
    Baku and the Georgian Black Sea port of Batumi.                          
                                                                             
    "To Bulgaria, gas supplies via the Black Sea offer an important          
    opportunity to diversify gas sources and routes," Traykov said.          
    According to him, Bulgaria counts on imports from the KazMunayGas        
    refineries in Romania to sustain competition on its domestic market. "If 
    there is a serious investor who has an interest in building a new        
    refinery in Bulgaria, the government will support him with concrete      
    action," he said.                                                        
                                                                             
    Earlier in the day, Traykov met with Kazakhstan's Energy and Mineral     
    Resources Minister Sauat Mynbayev to discuss Astana's plans to develop   
    port infrastructure and shipbuilding, including the building of oil      
    tankers and ships carrying compressed gas. Kazakhstan is planning to     
    build a ship repair plant on the Caspian Sea. "Bulgarian companies can   
    be very useful with their expertise and can share in joint projects in   
    Kazakhstan," Traykov said.                                               
                                                                             
    Kazakhstan has some of the richest oil and gas reserves among the        
    countries of the Caspian region, amounting, respectively, to 5,500       
    billion tonnes and 3.3 trillion cubic metres. Currently, the country     
    extracts 1.6 million barrels of oil daily, 22 per cent of it through the 
    operations of KazMunayGas, and 38 billion cubic metres of gas annually.  
    Using the CTC pipeline, which transports oil to the Black Sea, the       
    country exports 28 million tonnes of oil annually in a westward          
    direction and plans to double that amount in the following decade.       
                                                                             
    In 2010, natural gas accounted for 73 per cent of imports from           
    Kazakhstan to Bulgaria, worth some 50 million US dollars.                
                                                                             
    Source: BTA news agency, Sofia, in English 1220 gmt 4 Oct 11             
                                                                             
    BBC Mon EU1 EuroPol CAU 041011 sa/osc                                    

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011
</description>
    <date>2011-10-04 18:52:05</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/715832_kazakhstan-georgia-oman-romania-bulgaria-bulgarian-energy.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>nobody@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:translations@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>translations@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>725029</id>
    <title>Punish Dow Chemicals: US legislators
</title>
    <description>Punish Dow Chemicals: US legislators                                                                     
14 Jun 2008, 2225 hrs IST,IANS                                                                           
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Pollution/Punish_Dow_Chemicals_US_legislators/articleshow/3129704.cms 
                                                                                                         
                                                                                                         
                                                                                                         
NEW DELHI: Expressing solidarity with the Bhopal gas leak victims, 16 US House of Congress members led   
by Padma Bhushan Frank Pallone Jr have urged Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to bring Dow Chemicals to     
justice.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                         
Their letter dated June 5 is strong in its criticism of the US-based Dow Chemical, which took over Union 
Carbide, in whose plant the disaster took place on December 2-3, 1984.                                   
                                                                                                         
"The conduct of American corporations outside the US is a long-standing concern of ours. In this case,   
US corporations have refused to submit to the jurisdiction of foreign (Indian) courts. It is outrageous  
that the executives of Union Carbide and its successor, Dow Chemical, have yet to be brought to          
justice," the letter reads.                                                                              
                                                                                                         
In the Bhopal gas leak holocaust, often called the world's worst industrial disaster, the Union Carbide  
pesticide plant leaked over 40 tonnes of methyl isocyanate (MIC) gas, which killed at least 3,800 people 
and affected many thousands.                                                                             
                                                                                                         
The US legislators' letter is the latest in a tide of support that has flowed in from overseas,          
including endorsements from British and Scottish MPs, Amnesty International, and more than 100 eminent   
writers and artists.                                                                                     
                                                                                                         
The letter, a copy of which was given to the media by a group of survivors holding protests and an       
indefinite hunger strike here, said: "We are writing to express our support for the people of Bhopal,    
India, victims of the world's worst industrial disaster in 1984.                                         
                                                                                                         
"The survivors marched 500 miles in February and March from Bhopal to New Delhi, where they have been    
for over 60 days. We urge you to personally meet the survivor groups and address their long-standing     
demands for justice and a life of dignity," said the letter addressed to the prime minister.             
                                                                                                         
Nearly 100 people including survivors, victims' family members and activists supporting the cause are    
protesting near Jantar Mantar in the heart of New Delhi. They say they won't stop the protest unless     
Manmohan Singh meets them and solves their problems.                                                     
Besides Pallone Jr, the Congress members who have signed the letter include Patrick Kennedy, Barbara Lee 
and Steve Rothman.                                                                                       
                                                                                                         
Nityanand Jayraman, an activist on protest, said that the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) has received     
over 5,027 faxes urging him to meet the victims and listen to their demands.                             
                                                                                                         
While the PMO responded to their demands with a letter, organisations of gas leak survivors have found   
the response unsatisfactory.                                                                             
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/725029_punish-dow-chemicals-us-legislators-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>animesh.roul@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>730304</id>
    <title>AFGHANISTAN/AFRICA/LATAM/EAST ASIA/FSU/MESA - Lebanese Hezbollah
	chief raps USA, hails Syria in lengthy TV interview -
	IRAN/US/RUSSIA/CHINA/KSA/ISRAEL/AFGHANISTAN/LEBANON/OMAN/SYRIA/QATAR/IRAQ/EGYPT/BAHRAIN/LIBYA/YEMEN/TUNISIA/UK
</title>
    <description>    Lebanese Hezbollah chief raps USA, hails Syria in lengthy TV interview   
                                                                             
    Beirut Al-Manar Channel Television in Arabic at 1730 gmt on 24 October   
    carries live in its "Between Two Brackets" programme a three-hour        
    interview with Hasan Nasrallah, secretary-general of Lebanon's           
    Hezbollah, by anchorwoman Batul Ayyub Na'im. Place of interview is not   
    specified.                                                               
                                                                             
                                 Arab uprisings                              
                                                                             
    Asked about how Hezbollah views the recent and current Arab uprisings,   
    Nasrallah says: "Several months after the start of these Arab            
    revolutions, and as a result of our contacts and meetings and            
    information we have collected from reliable sources, facts have become   
    clearer. This confirms the opinion that we have expressed right from the 
    beginning that what happened in these countries was truly a national     
    movement. This means that what began in Tunisia and then in other Arab   
    countries was the result of popular national will and was not a US       
    scheme. It is illogical to say that what happened was a US scheme simply 
    because these regimes were pro-US."                                      
                                                                             
    He adds that the United States would not topple regimes loyal to it,     
    noting that "the Syrian regime is the only regime that cannot be         
    described as subject to the United States' will." He then says "the      
    Americans rode the wave in an attempt to hijack these revolutions and    
    derail them from their desired course and noble aims."                   
                                                                             
    On how "to prevent the United States from achieving its aims and fortify 
    the revolutions," he says this can be done through "popular awareness    
    that the US administration is not their friend," noting that this        
    administration "might have exploited some of the difficult circumstances 
    in some countries and tried to present itself as a friend, defender and  
    helper although it was the protector and defender of these dictatorial   
    regimes and continues to be so."                                         
                                                                             
    When told that US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said "the Arab      
    revolutions pose a threat to minorities," and asked if he is concerned   
    about the fate of minorities, Nasrallah says "the first threat in the    
    region lies in the existence of the state of Israel. This is a threat to 
    all peoples of the region." He adds: "The second threat is posed by the  
    US plan, especially during the last 10 years when the Americans came to  
    establish a new Middle East. This plan has failed but there is an        
    attempt now to revive it. It failed as a result of the steadfastness and 
    sacrifices of the resistance movements and opposition regimes. The       
    threat lies in the fact that the new Middle East they were talking about 
    is based on re-division of the region into rival countries established   
    on the basis of sectarian and ethnic principles. Israel would then       
    remain the strong and able state, like an oasis of democracy in a        
    volatile region, and this is a threat." He says this is a threat ! to    
    all Muslims and Christians and all peoples of the region without         
    exception. He adds that there is a third threat posed to all by the      
    "extremist takfiri movements [movements embracing ideas that accuse      
    other Muslims of being infidels] that adopt killing as a method," noting 
    that "there is no Sunni majority targeting the religious minorities in   
    the region and therefore, the Sunni majority poses no threat," adding    
    that this majority, just like other religious groups, is threatened by   
    Israel, by the USA's "divisive" plan, and the extremist and takfiri      
    movements that "falsely" call themselves jihadist. He concludes by       
    saying "we do not need an alliance of minorities against a Sunni         
    majority" but "a broad national Islamic-Christian alliance" to confront  
    the elements of fear.                                                    
                                                                             
                                     Libya                                   
                                                                             
    Turning to the situation in Libya, the anchorwoman asks how Hezbollah    
    views the future of Libya. Responding, Nasrallah first expresses         
    satisfaction with the "victory of the Libyan people and the end of       
    fighting in Libya." He adds: "The Libyan people are today facing great   
    challenges. They do not only want to change the regime, but also to      
    rebuild Libya. They want to build a state and establish a new regime and 
    new institutions." He then calls for national reconciliation and         
    forgiveness and for "addressing the wounds", maintaining the sovereignty 
    and independence of Libya and preserving its natural wealth.             
                                                                             
    Asked if Hezbollah has obtained any new information about the fate of    
    Imam Musa al-Sadr and his two companions who went missing in Libya more  
    than three decades ago, he says "the Lebanese in general and the lovers  
    and students of Imam Al-Sadr in particular are today living in special   
    emotional days" but "there is still no accurate information to build on  
    but the search for them not yet been exhausted." He adds that "the       
    Lebanese government takes this issue seriously" and there is "intensive  
    and serious follow-up and there are friends helping with the matter." He 
    then hopes that the delegation sent to Libya will achieve results and    
    also expresses the hope that Libya's National Transitional Council will  
    give due attention to the issue.                                         
                                                                             
    The anchorwoman then asks him: "Last week, US President Barack Obama     
    suddenly announced the final withdrawal [of US troops] from Iraq at the  
    end of 2011. All were surprised by the timing of this announcement. How  
    does Hezbollah view this decision or announcement? In what context do    
    you view it? Is it in the context of failure of the US plan in Iraq or   
    the context of tactical US measures on the ground?" Responding,          
    Nasrallah says: "In our opinion and without any exaggeration, what       
    happened was a real victory for the Iraqi people and Iraqi resistance    
    and for the political forces that held out firmly and did not yield to   
    the US will. What happened was a real victory for the resistance and     
    opposition axis in the region and all those who stood by the side of the 
    Iraqi people and prevented Iraq from turning into easy prey for the      
    Americans. This is a historic defeat of the Americans. This is not what  
    I am saying; this is what those who launched the war are saying. T! he   
    US Republican Party is now saying that this is a historic defeat of the  
    Americans and a victory for their enemies. They mentioned Iran at the    
    top of the list. This, of course, is a blessed historic achievement.     
    Congratulations to the Iraqi people." Continuing, Nasrallah says the     
    Americans would not have thought of leaving Iraq if they had felt secure 
    there, noting that "resistance turned Iraq into a scorched land under    
    the feet of the Americans, who realized that they would sustain          
    unbearable human, economic, financial, and psychological losses."        
                                                                             
                                  US-Iran ties                               
                                                                             
    Commenting on US accusations that Iran was behind an attempt to          
    assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington, Nasrallah says the       
    Americans asked to open a hotline of direct contact with Iran, and named 
    a US general for this purpose and even mentioned the name of the Iranian 
    general they wanted to communicate with, but the Iranian leaders turned  
    down the offer. He adds: "The Americans need this hotline very urgently  
    . The reason for this line as they said and announced in the news media  
    was the situation in the Gulf region, but the real reason was discussing 
    the issue of Iraq and primarily the issue of Afghanistan, not to mention 
    the rest of the regional issues. They believe that Iran has influence in 
    Iraq and Afghanistan and they want to get out as they are defeated       
    there. They want to maintain some of their interests and find a certain  
    scenario for their withdrawal. The Iranian refusal angered the           
    Americans. So, they fabricated this issue to put pressure on! the        
    Iranians to come to talks. In my opinion, and according to my            
    information, the purpose of opening this fabricated issue is not         
    preparing for war on Iran. It could be imposing further sanctions in     
    order to put pressure on Iran. The aim is to bring Iran to the table of  
    direct negotiations with the Americans, but the Iranians continue to     
    reject this." He adds that this issue can be exploited by the Americans  
    to "impose new sanctions on Iran in order to subjugate it" and "to       
    increase tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia."                         
                                                                             
    When told that some say these accusations are a prelude to military      
    action against Iran, Nasrallah says: "I do not think the Americans are   
    ready to fight a new war. Many strategic experts in the region say so,   
    too. The reason is the military and security defeat inflicted on US      
    troops in Iraq and the region, in addition to what is being inflicted on 
    it now in Afghanistan. This is in addition to the financial and economic 
    situation in the United States." He then says a Republican candidate has 
    called for a "halt to all US foreign aid, including aid to Israel,"      
    noting that this shows the "depth of the financial and economic crisis   
    in the United States."                                                   
                                                                             
    Continuing, Nasrallah says: "I do not expect the United States under     
    this financial, economic, moral, and psychological situation to start a  
    new war with the Islamic Republic of Iran. This is exaggeration. I think 
    that this threat is over now or at its minimal level." He adds that "all 
    they want is to put pressure on Iran to make concessions, act in harmony 
    with them and both coexist and work in line with the US project and US   
    interests." He then hopes that "the brothers" in Saudi Arabia will not   
    believe these US accusations about the assassination attempt, noting     
    that "any Iranian-Saudi tension or tension between countries in the      
    region would not be in the interest of the countries or peoples of this  
    region but in the interest of their enemies."                            
                                                                             
                                    Bahrain                                  
                                                                             
    Na'im says that in Bahrain, "the crisis is still open between the regime 
    and the Bahraini people." She adds that Bahrain "criticized you because  
    you are not with freedom or democracy, but the issue [for you] is a      
    sectarian issue." She then asks him whether Hezbollah has changed its    
    position on this issue, "this revolution."                               
                                                                             
    Answering this question, Nasrallah says: "We usually do not interfere in 
    Arab affairs, considering this has always been our policy and tradition. 
    Even when the movement began in Tunisia, we were late in adopting a      
    position because we said that this is an internal matter. When we held a 
    celebration, we held it in solidarity with the Tunisian, Yemeni,         
    Egyptian, Libyan, and Bahraini people. Therefore, we did not express     
    solidarity with Shi'is or Sunnis or with the followers of a certain      
    sect, excluding the other. Developments in Syria did not begin at the    
    time. Syria's issue is a special issue, which has its own headline.      
    Therefore, we expressed solidarity with these peoples who rebelled       
    against regimes which have something in common; namely, they are regimes 
    that are loyal to the Americans, submit to the US project, and their     
    position and performance towards the Arab-Israeli conflict are           
    understood, in addition to the fact that they are tyrannical regimes,    
    provi! ding these peoples demand freedom and sovereignty and call for    
    the return of these homelands to the nation and its causes. We have      
    supported all sides. We did not support Bahrain or any certain people."  
                                                                             
    He adds: "The truth is that when we talk about Bahrain I feel that the   
    Bahraini people have a special case of injustice. This is because at     
    many forums, even the forums of some Arab revolutions, when they talk    
    about Arab revolutions and the Arab spring, they mention all states, but 
    they do not mention Bahrain as if the Bahrainis are not Arab people, are 
    not Muslims, and are not a part of the Arab region, and as if there is a 
    democratic, elected, and free regime in Bahrain. All the issues that     
    caused the revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen are also      
    there in Bahrain. This includes the nature of the regime, its regional   
    position, the system of which it is a part, and internal tyranny. In     
    addition, there is no elected government. Even the elected council -     
    half of it is appointed and its powers are limited. Therefore, we really 
    feel that this is unfair. They accuse us of using double standards       
    regarding our position towards Syria. We will talk about Sy! ria in      
    detail."                                                                 
                                                                             
    He then wonders about the standards of those who accuse him. He says: "I 
    can say I adopt a different position towards Syria. I say this frankly   
    and we will, God willing, try to clarify this issue tonight. Can they    
    tell us why they adopt a different position towards Bahrain and whether  
    this is because of the nature of the regime or the people? This is       
    despite the fact that what takes place in Bahrain is a very big popular  
    and national movement, which is confronted with repression."             
                                                                             
    Nasrallah says "as far as I know, the Bahraini opposition cannot even    
    have access to a satellite in the whole world," but "satellite channels  
    are open to the other Arab revolutions." He says: "I am not saying that  
    satellite channels should not be open to them, but I am saying that they 
    all should have access to satellite channels." He says that this is in   
    addition to the "peaceful movement" in Bahrain. He says: "Although many  
    sides have abandoned this wronged people, I believe that this people has 
    a strong faith in their right, they have clarity, insight, will,         
    courage, and patience. They can continue to demonstrate for one, two or  
    three years. Anyone who wagers on their exhaustion is wagering on a      
    mirage. Eventually, they want to achieve their goals."                   
                                                                             
    Asked what do you have to say to the Bahraini youth, Nasrallah says: "I  
    do not want to say anything lest they come tomorrow to tell us this is   
    interference." He adds: "Just as we tell every country we tell them to   
    take care of internal cohesion, maintain unity, and unify their          
    movement, and to be in harmony with the enlightened, wise, and brave     
    leadership in the arena, the leadership that determines the nature of    
    the stage. I believe that eventually, this regime should meet this       
    people's will and demands."                                              
                                                                             
                                     Hamas                                   
                                                                             
    Asked about the prisoner swap deal between Hamas and Israel, Nasrallah   
    says: "We view the issue of Gil'ad Shalit and the swap deal, from        
    beginning to end, as a net achievement. They say net profit and we       
    consider this as a net achievement." He says that the capturing of this  
    soldier alive is a "great achievement in itself" because we are aware of 
    how difficult this issue is. He says that the most important thing is    
    that it "consolidates the culture of the resistance and the resistance   
    option."                                                                 
                                                                             
    Na'im says that some sides wonder about the timing of this deal and say  
    that it has come "because of the Hamas movement's difficult situation in 
    Syria and that Hamas began to come out of the Syrian-Iranian cloak into  
    Egyptian arms."                                                          
                                                                             
    She then asks him how he reads this. Nasrallah says: "Let me also give   
    you some information and not analysis. It happens that we are close to   
    some of these files and we know something other than what is written in  
    the newspapers or said in the news media. First, all that is being said  
    to the effect that the Hamas leadership has an intention to leave        
    Damascus is not true. It is not true at all. It neither wants to leave   
    nor does anyone want it to leave. The Syrian government does not want    
    Hamas to leave and Hamas does not want to leave." As for the timing of   
    this issue, Nasrallah says that Hamas has been working on this deal for  
    years and before "the so-called Arab spring and before all these         
    developments."                                                           
                                                                             
    After reviewing the facts surrounding this deal, Nasrallah says:         
    "Therefore, accomplishing a swap deal soon with the highest possible     
    ceiling is a required achievement, which has been made. We stress to you 
    and to the viewers, on behalf of the brothers in Hamas that it has been  
    accomplished away from any political considerations regarding its        
    timing. It has pure humanitarian considerations."                        
                                                                             
    Asked about the two-state solution and "Mahmud Abbas' activity at the    
    United Nations," Nasrallah says: "The two-state solution will not pass   
    at the UN Security Council. The US veto is swayed, declared, and ready.  
    I wanted to say something before, but I had forgotten it; namely, that   
    all the United States' efforts to improve its image fail. The most       
    important reason behind this failure is its absolute commitment to       
    Israel on the security, political, financial, economic, and military     
    levels. Therefore, the falsity and hypocrisy of the entire US logic      
    regarding democracy, human rights, and respect for people and their will 
    become clear when the issue has to do with Palestine."                   
                                                                             
    He adds: "As for the Palestine question in general, I believe that       
    current activity in the region has thus far been in favour of the        
    Palestine question. Today's Egypt is a different Egypt, Libya is         
    different, Tunisia is different, Yemen will be different, and Bahrain    
    will be different. Consequently, there is big activity in the region."   
    He says that neither America nor the West can prevent these peoples from 
    "expressing their convictions, opinion, and will regarding the           
    Arab-Israeli conflict." He adds: "The Israelis themselves admit this.    
    The so-called Israeli strategic environment in the region has changed in 
    a very significant and serious way and is not in favour of Israel. To be 
    added to this are the international changes. This includes the economic  
    and financial situation in America and the European states, taking into  
    consideration that Israel is a bogus state and entity and lives mainly   
    on aid and it is also a functional state. Therefore, the priorities ! of 
    the side that uses it have changed and it can no longer provide it with  
    strength or with the element of strength. I believe Israel will become   
    weaker and lose its options and consequently, there will be new, wide,   
    and positive doors, which will be open to the Palestinian people, God    
    willing, to regain their land and holy places."                          
                                                                             
                                     Syria                                   
                                                                             
    On the situation in Syria, Nasrallah says: "On this issue, we will talk  
    with transparency, clarity, and responsibility. This is because some     
    sides try to say that there are double standards here." He adds: "We     
    said that our standard is as follows: First, is this regime, its         
    position, relationship, and place with regard the US-Israeli project in  
    the region. If there is a regime that is controlled by the US will and   
    that works to serve the US project in the region, there is also another  
    regime that is not a submissive or satellite regime and that does not    
    work to serve the US project. However, there is also a third regime,     
    which is like the second one and even better than it, which is an        
    opposition regime that rejects US conditions and stands against the      
    Israeli project in various forms. Therefore, there is first the regime's 
    position. No-one can ignore this point because he will be unfair.        
    Second, are the head of the regime and the leadership of the regime      
    read! y to make reforms? Are they going to make reforms or not? If there 
    is a regime that serves the US-Israeli project and is not ready to and   
    not serious about reforms and the people rise to confront it, we will be 
    with these people in a very natural way. By all standards and all        
    considerations, we cannot but be with them. Anyone who says that we      
    should not be with them has no logic or justifications."                 
                                                                             
    He adds: "Is this regime an opposition regime? Yes, it is an opposition  
    regime. We are ready to discuss this with anyone who wants. We all       
    recall that, from 1982 in the minimum level, when the Americans came,    
    they had a project to liquidate the Palestine question, turn Lebanon     
    into another Israel, and impose a settlement on the region, Syria        
    confronted this and supported the resistance movement in Lebanon and     
    Palestine. We have managed to foil this project. Over the past 10 years, 
    there was also a US project, which is the new Middle East plan, and      
    Syria was one of the states that stood against this project and          
    contributed to foiling it. The foiling of the new Middle East plan was   
    not in the interest of the Syrian people only, but it was also in the    
    interest of all the region's peoples and the Arab and Islamic nation.    
    Syria's position was an advanced one."                                   
                                                                             
    Continuing on the Syrian position towards the "US project," Nasrallah    
    says "the only Arab president who used to talk about Iraq and the Iraqi  
    resistance was perhaps President Bashar al-Asad who did not accept all   
    these conditions and refused to succumb." He says that Syria "is a       
    partner in the victory of the resistance movements." He says that        
    President Al-Asad admitted that there are mistakes and that he "is       
    serious about reforms, can make reforms, and he began reforms." He adds: 
    "However, the confrontation took a different course and internal         
    confrontation and foreign pressures began to take place. Therefore, it   
    became clear that what is required in Syria is not reform and is not to  
    achieve democracy. What is required is to topple the resistance and      
    opposition regime. I say this with all responsibility and let all the    
    world hears me. Now, if President Bashar al-Asad goes to the Americans   
    and submits credentials of obedience, the issue in Syria will be solved! 
    ."                                                                       
                                                                             
    He says that the "Americans continued to support Husni Mubarak until the 
    last moment, and tolerated Al-Qadhafi until the last moment, continued   
    to support Zine El Abidine Ben Ali until the last moment, and they still 
    support the regime in Bahrain. Even in Yemen, you can go and ask the     
    Yemeni opposition, which will tell you about the US position, which      
    supports the current Yemeni regime. Therefore, the problem for the       
    Americans has never been democracy, freedoms, or reforms."               
                                                                             
    Nasrallah wonders about the Syrian opposition's "rhetoric" regarding     
    Palestinian and pan-Arab issues. He says that it has no rhetoric because 
    "they do not want to upset the Americans." He adds: "Some of the leaders 
    of the opposition have relations and contacts with the Americans.        
    WikiLeaks talked about this before anyone else." He adds: "It has become 
    clear that the goal is not reform and no kind of reform will be accepted 
    from this regime because what is required is to change and topple the    
    regime."                                                                 
                                                                             
    On whether he supports the Syrian people or the Syrian regime, Nasrallah 
    says that the majority of the Syrian people are with the regime. He      
    adds: "The people stood with their leadership. Have President Bashar     
    al-Asad and Syria stood fast over the most difficult past 10 years in    
    the face of a US onslaught to control the region without their people?   
    Therefore, the credit goes to this people regarding this regime's        
    steadfastness in the face of the US project. This people have also been  
    with their regime and supported the resistance in Lebanon during the     
    July 2006 wars. They have received tens of thousands [of Lebanese        
    citizens] in the minimum."                                               
                                                                             
    He says: "We are not for toppling an opposition and resistance regime    
    which is ready for reforms and which has began reforms. We do this in    
    the interest of the Syrian people because the alternative, which they,   
    the West and the other camp want in Syria, is either a regime that       
    submits to the US will and gives Israel what it wants, such as the       
    so-called moderate Arab regimes, providing this will not be in the       
    interest of the Syrian people or in the interest of Syria's position and 
    its regional and pan-Arab importance; a civil war in Syria; or           
    partition."                                                              
                                                                             
    He adds: "Therefore, since I like the Syrian people and care about them, 
    I should say that it is forbidden to take the Syrian people to positions 
    that are not in the interest of their security, stability, political and 
    pan-Arab value, or national unity. This is because this people's         
    strength lies in their national unity. Consequently, what is required in 
    Syria, with all clarity, is calm, leaving the street, stopping any form  
    of clash and confrontation, going to the dialogue table, and cooperation 
    to make reforms. The nation's interests, the interests of the            
    resistance, the confrontation of the US-Israeli project, and the         
    interests of the Syrian people, in our opinion, lie in this. This is why 
    we have this clear and transparent position."                            
                                                                             
    He says that some Arab satellite channels, which exaggerate the          
    situation in Syria. He adds: "The situation is normal. There is nothing  
    in most areas in Syria."                                                 
                                                                             
    Asked whether Hezbollah "sends thousands of fighters" to defend the      
    regime of Bashar al-Asad, Nasrallah says: "These are clear lies and very 
    serious slander. I have previously commented on this. Very regrettably,  
    some people, who call themselves Muslims who fear God, insist on         
    levelling such accusations." He then asks these people to come up with   
    evidence on this. He notes: "This is completely baseless. We have not    
    sent thousands or even half a person. We do not interfere in this at     
    all. We have a political position, which we express, and we have a media 
    position through which we explain things and help make the picture in    
    Syria clear."                                                            
                                                                             
    He says that the US ambassador in Lebanon has recently told the 14 March 
    team that the situation in Syria "will not be settled within weeks or    
    months, but she went back to speak about one and two years." He says     
    that the Syrian leadership is not that weak to the point of asking       
    Hezbollah or others to send fighters to Syria.                           
                                                                             
                                   Popularity                                
                                                                             
    Na'im says: "Have you begun to feel that Hezbollah's popularity has      
    began to reduce and that it has started paying the price for this in the 
    Arab and Islamic world because of these positions?"                      
                                                                             
    Nasrallah says that one should abide by his principles "away from        
    whether the people understand this or not and whether his popularity     
    wanes or not, considering that this is not the goal." He adds: "For      
    example, we have won great respect in the Arab and Islamic world because 
    of our resistance and steadfastness, true. However, have we resisted for 
    winning respect? Have we stood fast to win respect? No, we have resisted 
    and fought to liberate our land, defend our homeland, and foil the       
    dangerous US project of imposing hegemony on the region."                
                                                                             
                                  Arab League                                
                                                                             
    On the coming visit to Syria by an Arab League delegation and whether    
    "you wager on an Arab role in this crisis," Nasrallah says: "I prefer to 
    say let us wait for the meetings, which will be held in Damascus. This   
    is because, regrettably, a part of the Arab action is strongly pushing   
    towards toppling the regime and not towards making reforms." He adds:    
    "Some Arabs are proceeding strongly in this direction and they sometime  
    resort to political, sectarian, and religious incitement in this regard. 
    There were attempts at the Arab League to suspend Syria's membership and 
    to isolate it in the Arab world, but they have failed."                  
                                                                             
    Asked whether "you put this move within the framework of recognizing the 
    Syrian National Council," Nasrallah says: "The Arab League has not made  
    such recognition. I believe that the structure of the committee and the  
    states participating in the committee include a kind of balance and      
    positive approach. Consequently, let me talk about the positive things   
    more than the negative things. God willing, we hope that our Arab        
    brothers will understand the situation and that they will help achieve   
    security, stability, and prosperity in Syria and support reforms in it." 
                                                                             
                                Syria "strength"                             
                                                                             
    Asked whether Syria "has passed the stage of danger," Nasrallah says:    
    "We can say yes in a very significant way. No-one can talk in a definite 
    and categorical way. Syria is still exposed to pressures. The popular    
    activity is at its lowest levels but a part of it has turned into an     
    armed action, providing this is dangerous, and it would have taken a     
    dangerous course in some areas had it not been for the accurate tackling 
    by the Syrian leadership.                                                
                                                                             
    The worst thing, however, is foreign pressure, which includes talk about 
    sanctions or siege. We have seen in the news a short while ago that the  
    Americans withdrew their ambassador for security reasons. Syria replied  
    by withdrawing its ambassador from Washington for consultations. This    
    shows firmness and strength. They have not left their ambassador in      
    Washington, but they withdrew him for consultations. This is a sign of   
    strength and not a sign of weakness at all."                             
                                                                             
    On repetition of the Libyan "scenario" in Syria, Nasrallah says: "I      
    believe that there is a big difference. First, the popular position in   
    Syria is different. In other words, the popular majority is with the     
    regime while we know that the popular majority was against the regime in 
    a very strong way." He adds: "I believe that the fact that Syria is      
    adjacent to the Israeli entity, the so-called state of Israel, makes the 
    Americans and NATO think twice, and I do not want to say prevent, before 
    taking any military action against Syria. This is not for the sake of    
    Syria or its people, for the sake of saving their blood, or for the sake 
    of freedoms, but out of fear that an attack on Syria would lead to       
    regional developments that might harm or hurt Israel or to large-scale   
    war in the region. Because the priority for America and NATO in the      
    region is Israel, first and foremost, I rule out, providing I do not     
    want to emphasize, military action against the regime in Syri! a."       
                                                                             
                               Lebanon-Syria ties                            
                                                                             
    Na'im asks: "Lebanon is not far from all these developments in Syria,    
    taking into consideration that some groups are involved in smuggling     
    weapons and in supporting and sympathizing with the Syrian opposition.   
    Do you expect that this will reflect negatively on relative stability in 
    Lebanon?"                                                                
                                                                             
    Answering this question, Nasrallah says: "We all know that the security  
    of Lebanon and Syria is one. All Lebanese should admit this. Some sides, 
    however, still ignore this fact. Despite this, it goes without saying    
    that Lebanon's security is from Syria's security and Syria's security is 
    from Lebanon's security. What is taking place in Syria definitely        
    reflects on Lebanon in the same way that what was taking place in        
    Lebanon reflected negatively on Syria."                                  
                                                                             
    He adds: "There is no government in Lebanon that classified Syria as an  
    enemy. Some political forces classified it as an enemy. The official     
    position in Lebanon, however, has never classified Syria as an enemy,    
    but as a friend. Therefore, you [14 March Forces] are superimposing your 
    convictions on the state. They say that we impose our convictions on the 
    state. You oppose the state's convictions. The official institutions in  
    Lebanon say that Syria is a friend and is not an enemy. The official     
    institutions in Lebanon also say that Israel is an enemy and is not a    
    friend. Therefore, let us see what international law and norms say when  
    an enemy violates borders and when a friend violates borders. Let us     
    examine this as statesmen. Will they act as the 14 March team? No. When  
    the enemy makes violations, there will be a hue and cry and statements   
    will be issued, denunciations will be made, complaints lodged with the   
    UN Security Council and measures taken on the groun! d. The 14 March     
    forces ignore this issue completely. In my opinion, this is because deep 
    inside, they do not deal with Israel as an enemy. I do not want to say   
    they consider it a friend. I do not want to exaggerate the issue. Deep   
    inside, they do not consider Israel as an enemy. Therefore, the          
    confirmed and clear violations, which are endorsed by UNIFIL, do not     
    draw any reaction by the 14 March Forces."                               
                                                                             
    He says: "When a state chases wanted people, for example, and crosses    
    borders, their representatives hold a meeting to solve the issue because 
    they are two friendly states. They, however, do not launch a media,      
    political, and propaganda campaign against the other state. This is what 
    the 14 March forces are asking the government of Prime Minister [Najib]  
    Miqati to do. This is unfair and incorrect." He adds: "In the same way   
    we ask the Lebanese government to tackle Syrian violations, if there is  
    any, we should also ask it to tackle Lebanese violations, which include  
    the smuggling of fighters and weapons, providing this is confirmed."     
                                                                             
    He says: "I call on every Lebanese, everyone of us, through his          
    friendships and relationships, and say that if we can push things in     
    Syria towards dialogue, negotiations, meeting, reconciliation, and       
    reform, this will be better for Lebanon and for all political forces in  
    Lebanon. Anyone who bases his calculations on toppling the regime in     
    Syria and says that this will be in the interest of Lebanon is mistaken, 
    confused, and adventurous. I hope this issue will be reconsidered."      
                                                                             
                             "Hezbollah government"                          
                                                                             
    Then, Nasrallah is asked to provide "a straightforward answer" and make  
    an assessment of the Miqati government's experience "almost four months  
    after the government came into being." She asks him whether the Miqati   
    government is a Hezbollah government. Responding to Na'im's remarks and  
    question, Nasrallah, laughingly, says: "Now, as for the question on a    
    Hezbollah government [is concerned], it goes without saying that we are  
    not affiliated with a Hezbollah government. This is also a straight      
    answer. However, unfortunately, since the first day of the government's  
    inception, the other team has tried to say that this is a Hezbollah      
    government. Nonetheless, it has failed to promote this for a long time;  
    and the issue has evaporated into thin air. Only a few are still using   
    this language." He adds that the other team also uses the phrase "the    
    ruling party" to characterize Hezbollah. Nasrallah goes on to say:       
    "Anywhere in the world, a ruling party forms a government! within two to 
    three days. It does not spend four to five months engaged in debates and 
    discussions with various political forces. The prime minister-designate, 
    the president of the republic, and the heads of parliamentary blocs were 
    all instrumental in the formation of the government. They were decisive  
    and key factors in this."                                                
                                                                             
    Nasrallah says that this was attested to by discussions held on the      
    government statement, and also by the changes made to this statement. He 
    adds that various political figures and parties have described the       
    government configuration as an assortment of "various and diverse        
    political forces that have their own visions, their own peculiarities,   
    and their own sets of priorities," noting that this is "a correct        
    characterization." Nasrallah goes on to say: "This shows that all the    
    forces making up the government are nowadays saying that this is not a   
    Hezbollah government. Speaking for Hezbollah, I share their views and    
    say that this is not a Hezbollah government."                            
                                                                             
    Elaborating on this issue, Nasrallah commends the Miqati government,     
    saying that it "can boast this extent of democracy, debate, and          
    diversity of views; this tug-of-war; and this give-and-take." He adds:   
    "This is the reality of the government. Consequently, and most           
    unfortunately, if the whole government shows a complete identity of      
    views, they [the other team] come out to say that that there is a party  
    that holds sway within the government, and that people [partners in the  
    government] are powerless, and that this explains why things are         
    proceeding swiftly. And if there are discussions, a give-and-take, a     
    diversity of views, and, sometimes, a disparity of views, they start     
    talking of bickering, of a lack of solidarity within the government, and 
    of infighting within the government, which suggests that the government  
    is about to implode. This characterization is neither correct nor        
    accurate. In a nutshell, we are facing a national government that        
    represents a pa! rliamentary majority and a true popular majority."      
                                                                             
    Asked whether he is satisfied with the performance of the Miqati         
    government, Nasrallah says that while making an assessment of this       
    government's performance, one should take into account the fact that     
    this government "inherited" a Lebanese domestic situation left behind by 
    successive Lebanese governments, including high indebtedness, crises, a  
    huge administration vacuum, and a lack of an economic and social vision. 
                                                                             
    Elaborating in his praise of the performance of the Miqati government,   
    he adds: "For the first time, we have an appropriately endorsed          
    electricity plan. That is, the plan was debated by the Council of        
    Ministers, which referred it to the Chamber of Deputies. It was          
    thoroughly debated. So, for the first time, we have an electricity plan  
    that is heading for implementation, God willing. Of course, this is a    
    huge accomplishment." Nasrallah goes on to say that the Ministry of      
    Internal Affairs has submitted a Draft Election Law two years ahead of   
    elections, which is a far cry from past practices. He says that the      
    Miqati government circulated this Draft Election Law, which the Council  
    of Ministers will debate. Nasrallah views this as "an accomplishment."   
                                                                             
    He adds that the Ministry of Finance has also submitted a Draft Budget   
    Law, which is also a far cry from past practices. Nasrallah goes on to   
    say that the government is showing interest in the citizens' living      
    conditions, and is seeking to alleviate poverty in the country.          
    Nasrallah says that Lebanon boasts "a stabilized security situation."    
    Elaborating on this issue, he says: "We nowadays boast a stabilized      
    security situation. Against the backdrop of this tense situation         
    throughout the region, the country, compared with elsewhere, boasts an   
    excellent stabilization in the security situation."                      
                                                                             
    Continuing to lavish praise on the Miqati government, Nasrallah says     
    that rarely had a Lebanese government made such achievements within a    
    short period of time against the backdrop of such tough domestic,        
    regional, and international circumstances.                               
                                                                             
    Queried on Hezbollah's ties with President Michel Sulayman, "one of the  
    pillars of the Centrist Bloc," Nasrallah says: "Even the prime minister  
    describes himself as a centrist figure." He adds: "The relationship with 
    his excellency the president is good; and we are in constant touch.      
    Constant communication is the hallmark of this relationship. We are in   
    constant touch. There is no interruption whatsoever in communication.    
    There are consultations, and the sensitive and key issues are discussed; 
    and there is also amity [in this relationship]. You know that especially 
    when it comes to the issue of resistance, his excellency the president   
    has always taken clear and great stands. Even in the latest speech that  
    he delivered at the Security Council [corrects himself] the United       
    Nations, he made himself clear in this regard."                          
                                                                             
    Asked whether he is satisfied with Prime Minister Miqati's handling of   
    dossiers and issues, Nasrallah says: "Definitely. Prime Minister Miqati  
    was our option, and we supported this option. We do not regret having    
    embraced this option. We are now supportive of this option.              
    Consequently, when I speak of the government's accomplishments, the      
    president of the republic, the prime minister, and the ministers, who    
    represent the political forces, are, undoubtedly, all partners in making 
    these achievements. The person who sits at the helm, who holds the top   
    post, takes the main credit."                                            
                                                                             
                          Ties with coalition partners                       
                                                                             
    Queried on recent reports that the relationship between the Free         
    Patriotic Movement [FPM] and Hezbollah is "lukewarm," Nasrallah says:    
    "First of all, in general, the relationship with all my allies is        
    excellent. In the first place, our relationship is strategic; and it is  
    anchored in a vision, in understandings, and in constants." He adds that 
    much of what is disseminated in the media is either "baseless" or        
    "exaggerated."                                                           
                                                                             
    Nasrallah goes on to say: "Hence, first of all, the relationship with    
    all allies is important and good. At any rate, during the past phase,    
    and also at the current phase, the allies have demonstrated their        
    resolve, their clarity, and their stands, as well as their sincerity."   
    He says: "Therefore, as far as the issue of allies is concerned, all     
    that is being said on lukewarmness here and tension there is untrue."    
    Nasrallah adds that the political forces making up the government,       
    including Hezbollah, the Amal Movement, the FPM, and other political     
    parties and forces, for that matter, are an assortment of "diverse       
    political movements, parties, and forces." He goes on to say that this   
    means that "there are common denominators, constants, and a commonality  
    of views" among the aforesaid political forces. However, this does not   
    necessarily mean that there are no differences in views or visions among 
    them, he maintains. Nasrallah acknowledges that such differences do !    
    exist. Otherwise, the aforesaid political forces would have been a       
    single party, he argues. Nasrallah goes on to say: "As for the           
    relationship with the FPM, it is characterized by neither lukewarmness   
    nor deficiency. On the contrary, the relationship is strong and          
    effective; we are in constant touch with the FPM, and we hold constant   
    discussions with it." He says that the topics currently debated by the   
    government are mostly new topics that were not previously discussed with 
    the FPM, and that they were not enshrined in the understandings          
    previously achieved with the FPM. Nasrallah argues that the work         
    mechanisms usually acted upon by all Lebanese governments, including the 
    current Miqati government, do not provide enough time for discussions    
    ahead of cabinet sessions, which, at times, gives rise to differences    
    and precludes the necessary coordination. He adds that this is, however, 
    "a healthy sign," and that it applies to ties among all components of    
    the government, and not! only to ties between Hezbollah and the FPM.     
                                                                             
    Asked on Hezbollah's relationship with the Progressive Socialist Party   
    [PSP] and PSP leader Walid Junblatt, Nasrallah says: "The statement      
    issued following our meeting spoke of a strategic alliance and a         
    strategic relationship. At any rate, I, once again, say that we          
    [Hezbollah and the PSP] are not a single party. We see eye to eye on     
    certain issues and differ on others. When we met, Mr Walid expressed his 
    views, and so did I. He substantiated his views, and so did I. We agreed 
    on certain issues and disagreed on others. However, this does not        
    translate into either animosity, a struggle, or a conflict. We are       
    forces that are part of the current parliamentary majority, within the   
    current government. We are eager to safeguard the relationship; we are   
    eager to maintain dialogue; and we are eager to achieve understanding on 
    the largest possible number of issues, and also on cooperation. This is  
    the reality of the existing relationship [between us]."                  
                                                                             
    Queried whether he sensed a desire to effect "a new realignment" on the  
    part of Junblatt, Nasrallah says: "No, not at all." Elaborating on this  
    issue, Nasrallah says: "The talk to this effect can be found in some     
    media outlets, in some saloons. However, I have not sensed any of this,  
    not at all."                                                             
                                                                             
                                    Security                                 
                                                                             
    Asked on the security situation in Lebanon, Nasrallah says that there    
    has been "a stabilized security situation under this government, and     
    even under the former government." He adds that the "stabilized security 
    situation" in Lebanon has continued, arguing that this is attested to by 
    the fact that conferences, as well as Arab, regional, and international  
    gatherings and functions are convening in Lebanon. Nasrallah goes on to  
    say that "individual incidents" here and there should not prompt some to 
    draw the conclusion that the security situation in Lebanon is not        
    stabilized.                                                              
                                                                             
    Responding to a question on "charges" that Hezbollah is arming its       
    allies in northern Lebanon and creating security zones there, which      
    prompted some MPs in Tripoli to threaten that they would urge people to  
    take to the streets, Nasrallah says that as part of its policy,          
    Hezbollah does not respond to "the deluge of charges" made against it.   
    He adds that there is "a deluge of falsehoods, fabrications, and         
    charges" targeted against Hezbollah. Nasrallah goes on to say that       
    Hezbollah is always blamed for blocking roads and shootings even when it 
    has nothing to do with them. Elaborating on this issue, Nasrallah says   
    that "there are people in Lebanon" who are preaching the virtues of      
    democracy, diversity, and pluralism, and the virtues of diversity within 
    sects, when they, in point of fact, act unilaterally within their own    
    sects. He adds: "They can tolerate neither diversity nor pluralism       
    [within their own sects]; and this is a fact."                           
                                                                             
    Nasrallah goes on to say that these people are strongly alarmed and      
    countenance the end of the world when they see a rival political force   
    gaining ground and greater popular support, attracting followers, and    
    expanding. Nasrallah argues that when they speak of Shi'i domestic       
    politics in Lebanon, these people criticize the Shi'i "duality"          
    manifested in the existence of both the Amal Movement and Hizballah. He  
    implicitly urges an acceptance of "duality" within the Sunni sect in     
    Lebanon.                                                                 
                                                                             
    Elaborating on this issue, Nasrallah says: "Specifically, and let me     
    speak straightforwardly, as this issue concerns northern Lebanon, the    
    Future Movement cannot tolerate any duality. Throughout all the past     
    years, our brothers within the Islamic and national forces, those who    
    were affiliated with the former opposition and who are now               
    pro-government, have had their offices attacked, and they have been shot 
    at, and they have been targeted by severe terrorism on the media and     
    psychological levels. They were accused of being the killers of [the     
    late] Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri. This happened during elections,    
    and at other times as well. An effort was made to isolate them using     
    sectarian and denominational slogans. Throughout all the past years,     
    they have endured what is intolerable, particularly in northern Lebanon. 
    They [the Future Movement] can tolerate neither pluralism nor duality.   
    They are saying: I am the sole representative [of Sunnis in Lebanon];    
    and ! that is it."                                                       
                                                                             
    He adds that "due to changes in the Arab region; due to the defeat of    
    the US scheme, which impacted all of the United States' allies in the    
    region; due to the transformation seen in the country; and due to the    
    failure of the other team's plan, and of its performance and             
    behaviours," a change affecting public opinion in Lebanon, including     
    northern Lebanon, has taken place. Nasrallah goes on to say: "There are  
    political forces in northern Lebanon whose popular standing is           
    improving. How can they face up to this? The charge emerged that we are  
    arming [the Sunnis of northern Lebanon] and creating security zones      
    [there]. I tell you that this is untrue. I heard of this issue from the  
    media. I even contacted my brothers, who are usually in charge of        
    running political and organizational ties with these forces, putting the 
    following questions to them: O brothers, is there any truth to this      
    story? Have you supplied anybody with weapons or ammunition? Have you    
    opened thi! s file? They answered saying: No, not at all. This is        
    untrue." Nasrallah adds: "As far as this issue is concerned, I confirm   
    that this is merely an exaggerated media, political, and psychological   
    offensive aimed to face up to the relief, growth, and expansion          
    experienced by these political forces in northern Lebanon."              
                                                                             
    Asked where he stands on the views on minorities and Hezbollah weapons   
    recently articulated by Maronite Patriarch Bisharah al-Ra'i during his   
    meeting with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, Nasrallah says: "As a     
    matter of fact, with regard to this issue, the attack on his beatitude   
    the patriarch is unfair. In my opinion - and so that I may not           
    exaggerate, as others have already expressed this view - his beatitude   
    the patriarch has [only] offered a description. He did not say whether   
    or not he supports or rejects this or that." In all his statements, his  
    beatitude the patriarch neither supported the Syrian regime nor          
    Hezbollah's weapons, Nasrallah contends. Nasrallah goes on to say: "The  
    patriarch offered a description of external realities, and, in the       
    process, expressed concern over some issues." He cites the statements    
    that Patriarch Al-Ra'i made in Paris on description's weapons, as well   
    as the statements that he made on Syria.                                 
                                                                             
                                   Christians                                
                                                                             
    Responding to statements made by Christian figures affiliated with the   
    14 March Forces who convened a meeting yesterday - statements to the     
    effect that Christians do not need anybody's protection, Nasrallah says: 
    "All peoples of the region nowadays see k protection. Sunnis, Shi'is,    
    Alawites, Druze, and Christians - we all want protection. But, of        
    course, the question is: Protection against whom? Protection is          
    achievable through our unity, through our alliance, through our          
    solidarity, and through our shouldering of responsibility. Otherwise,    
    the region would be disturbed. As for what has happened in Iraq, of      
    which we have just been speaking, where are the Christians of Iraq? As I 
    have just said, due to the fact that they are larger in number, the      
    Shi'is have shown endurance. The same holds true for Sunnis, Turkomans,  
    and Kurds. The fatalities [in Iraq] among Shi'is or Sunnis are way       
    larger in number than Christian fatalities. However, due to the fact     
    that Chris! tians are few in number, their emigration has become         
    noticeable. Nonetheless, right now, there are displaced people inside    
    Iraq, and refugees living outside Iraq. This is because this is a real   
    concern. If somebody pushes for sectarian sedition, or civil war in      
    Syria or Egypt, God forbid, they have the right to express concern over  
    the presence of Christians. All people have the right to be concerned    
    over their situation. So, this is a legitimate concern. Hence, I call    
    for doing the man justice, and for reading the statements that he made   
    as they are."                                                            
                                                                             
                                  Russia visit                               
                                                                             
    Asked on a visit made to Moscow last week by a high-ranking Hezbollah    
    delegation, and whether the visit shows that Hezbollah will also open up 
    to China, Nasrallah says that the Russian Duma extended an invitation to 
    "the Loyalty to the Resistance" parliamentary bloc more than a year ago. 
    He adds that the idea of making the visit to Moscow was contemplated     
    "even before the outbreak of Arab revolutions, before the use of the     
    Russian veto on Syria, before the issuance of the bill of indictment by  
    the Special Tribunal on Lebanon, and before the no-confidence motion     
    which brought about the downfall of the government of Sa'd al-Hariri."   
    Nasrallah goes on to say that this visit is both "timely" and            
    "foundational," as this is the first time a Hezbollah delegation travels 
    to Russia on an official visit. He says that another Hezbollah           
    delegation will soon travel to China on a visit; and that visits to      
    other countries by Hezbollah delegations will follow                     
                                                                             
                                Tribunal funding                             
                                                                             
    Na'im then asks Nasrallah about "the hot dossier of financing the        
    International Tribunal for Lebanon," and notes that "even though the     
    financing of the tribunal has been discussed for a long time - one or    
    two months - Hezbollah has been adhering to the policy of remaining      
    silent," and when she asks him why, Nasrallah replies: "We have adhered  
    to this policy because of our vision. From the beginning, the other side 
    confronted Prime Minister Miqati with the issue of financing the         
    tribunal. The first thing they asked him: Do you want to finance it or   
    not?" He says they wanted to "embarrass Prime Minister Miqati by         
    exploiting the sectarian and denominational aspects and the current      
    international conditions ."                                              
                                                                             
    He says Prime Minister Miqati had the right to respond and he voiced his 
    opinion, "and I know that he has voiced his conviction regarding the     
    issue of financing the tribunal, and he has the right to do that," and   
    adds: "Anyone who is convinced of the need to finance the tribunal has   
    the right to say so, and some components of the current government are   
    saying so. Indeed His Excellency the president also alluded on this      
    conviction."                                                             
                                                                             
    Nasrallah says: "We remained silent not because we had no specific       
    position or that we were unable to voice our stand. It was because the   
    other side wanted to create a sharp and boisterous controversy over an   
    issue that was not urgent and whose time had not yet come. They wanted   
    to use every means that might create differences among the components of 
    the government or a dispute or a crisis of confidence. Once again I say  
    that they have the right to do that. Let them do what they want.         
    However, we should not be dragged into this controversy. We should avoid 
    falling into traps and we must not step on the mines they are setting    
    for us. We considered that this issue would lead us to a controversy and 
    we did not have to start this controversy. Even if the entire world      
    speaks, makes speeches, and issues one hundred or two hundred statements 
    for or against, the issue will eventually be decided at a cabinet        
    meeting. When we come to the cabinet we will speak. That is w! hy we     
    avoided entering into any wrangling on this issue."                      
                                                                             
    Asked if he does not think that Hezbollah should make its position       
    clear, he replies: "There is no need for a statement to explain          
    Hezbollah's position. Hezbollahdoes not approve of and is against        
    financing the Special Tribunal," because Hezbollah is aware of the way   
    it was established, of its conduct and its loopholes, and adds:          
    "Hezbollah rejects the Special Tribunal in part and parcel."             
                                                                             
    Nasrallah says: "However, I would not start a controversy over this. But 
    who will finance the Special Tribunal? If anyone wants to finance it     
    from his own pocket, then let him; it will be his own affair. I am not   
    responsible for anyone's money. If it has to be financed from the        
    Lebanese government's treasury, which is from the money of the Lebanese  
    people, a decision should be made. Who will make such a decision? Either 
    the cabinet or the chamber of deputies. There is no need to create a     
    dispute, a media frenzy or a quarrel." He says that the cabinet will     
    discuss it and various sides will present their opinions, "and we will   
    do our utmost to reach a consensus on this issue through a cabinet       
    discussion as well as bilateral discussions outside the cabinet," and    
    adds: "If we do not reach a consensus there will be a vote and that will 
    not be a decision that I or any minister can make. This decision will be 
    made by the chairman of the cabinet session - the presiden! t or the     
    head of the government. They will decide that since the discussion is at 
    an end, that neither side agrees with the other, and that there will be  
    two viewpoints and a divergence of views, then it has to be put to the   
    vote. At that point, everyone will vote and each will voice his stand.   
    Our own desire is different. Coming up with a consensus and an accord    
    will certainly be beneficial."                                           
                                                                             
    He says the cabinet is a constitutional institution and if the decision  
    to finance the Special Tribunal is not passed, then everyone will abide  
    by this outcome. He adds that if some demand that the prime minister     
    remaining in power is contingent on the government's approval of the     
    financing of the Special Tribunal, then they would be wronging Prime     
    Minister Miqati. He says: "At one point we might be forced to tell them: 
    Look at the Turkish-Qatari initiative." He says: "When we reached an     
    agreement with Prime Minister Miqati and gave him our vote, he did not   
    commit himself to our position to refrain from financing the Special     
    Tribunal, he did not agree with us on withdrawing the judges or refusing 
    to renew the protocol." Addressing the opposition, he says : "Leave this 
    issue aside. Do not embarrass this man more than you have already done   
    because embarrassing him will compel us to issue realistic words that    
    might not suit you."                                                     
                                                                             
    Nasrallah says: "Prime Minister Miqati is shouldering a very great       
    national responsibility; namely, realizing stability in the country,     
    which is a priority from the national, regional, and international       
    standpoints," adding that if he convinces his cabinet of the need to     
    finance the Special Tribunal it will do that, but if he does not, there  
    will be no problem. Asked if he has a guarantee that Prime Minister      
    Miqati will not resign if no agreement is reached on financing the       
    Special Tribunal, he replies: "We have not discussed this matter with    
    Prime Minister Miqati and we have not heard anything from him about      
    this. Neither he nor us has broached this subject of resignation."       
                                                                             
    Asked if he does not agree that by not financing the Special Tribunal,   
    Lebanon will be challenging the international community by failing to    
    implement international resolutions, he asks: "Is Lebanon committed to   
    this financing?" He notes that the previous government committed itself  
    to this financing for one or two years "but we do not have to be         
    committed to financing the Special Tribunal for the remaining years." He 
    says that when the Miqati government was formed, the other side said     
    that "this government will lead to isolating Lebanon, the withdrawal of  
    ambassadors, sanctions against Lebanon, and threats to Lebanon," but     
    adds that nothing happened and the world accepted the government. He     
    adds: "Even the Americans said that they wanted to see the government's  
    policy statement first but the statement was issued. There is a reality  
    and the world is dealing with it." He noted that "the international      
    community is not entirely preoccupied with Lebanon," arguing ! that the  
    Lebanese people are fortunate that the region and the world are          
    interested in stability in Lebanon. He criticized the "hue and cry" that 
    is being raised and says that if Lebanon does not pay others will, and   
    that the UN secretary-general will look for ways to raise the necessary  
    funds.                                                                   
                                                                             
    Nasrallah says that "some have already said that if Lebanon does not     
    finance the Special Tribunal it does not mean that the Special Tribunal  
    will be put out of work. This is great. Then why raise all these         
    problems?" He says the money can be spared to enable the government to   
    "take care of poor families in Lebanon."                                 
                                                                             
    Asked if he has new evidence that this Special Tribunal is politicized,  
    he says that the efforts that have been exerted effected a change in the 
    minds of the Lebanese people, thus undermining the credibility of the    
    Tribunal, adding that the bill of indictment did not create any problems 
    in the country. He notes that conditions in Lebanon, in the region, and  
    in the world have transcended the issue of the Special Tribunal and its  
    impact.                                                                  
                                                                             
                              Israeli "aggression"                           
                                                                             
    Asked if Hezbollah expects new Israeli aggression against Lebanon to     
    break Israel's isolation, he says military commanders must prepare       
    themselves for the worst "because they should not be subjected to        
    political analyses and should avoid any surprises," and adds: "However,  
    based on political analysis, we say that judging by current conditions,  
    the July war, the losses of the Israeli enemy during the war, and its    
    failures, if this enemy wants to wage a new war it must ensure the       
    outcome of this war but the results will not be guaranteed. There have   
    been changes in the region and if the enemy wants to launch a new war in 
    the region - not only with Lebanon but even with Gaza - it will find a   
    different Egypt, a different Tunisia, and a different Libya. That is     
    what I said a short while ago. The region is changing. If we look at the 
    current conditions inside Israel and the loopholes and the lessons that  
    the Israeli army had to learn during the July war; if we look ! at the   
    strategic environment in the region and the strength of the resistance   
    in Lebanon, the current formula in Lebanon now makes us rule out any     
    Israeli war against Lebanon."                                            
                                                                             
                               Hezbollah weapons                             
                                                                             
    Asked to comment on Ban Ki-moon's recent call on Hezbollah to hand over  
    its weapons, and if Nasrallah can "reassure Ban tonight that Hezbollah   
    has taken practical steps to gather its arms and hand them over," he     
    replies: "You want to conclude this programme with a joke," and adds:    
    "We have not issued any comment on the UN secretary-general's call       
    because we consider the region and the world as one place while he is    
    speaking from another place. Today, the arms of the resistance, its      
    presence, its culture, and the golden trinity of which we are speaking   
    of in Lebanon; namely, the resistance, the people, and the army, are     
    elements of our basic strength on which nobody will compromise. They     
    launched a 33-day war and spread destruction, killing, and massacres but 
    we never compromised. Do you think that a statement by the               
    secretary-general or an international organization will make any         
    difference?"                                                             
                                                                             
    Na'im asks him: "In 2006 you waged a war to foil the new Middle East     
    project, and you promised victory, and victory was realized." Nasrallah  
    corrects her: "The war that was imposed on us."                          
                                                                             
    She then asks him what he would like to say at the conclusion of this    
    interview. He says: "Despite certain developments in the region that     
    call for concern here and there, my brothers and I think that matters in 
    the region are heading in the direction of promoting the interests of    
    the peoples of the region, the interests of the resistance and           
    steadfastness project, the interests of the Ummah [Islamic community     
    worldwide]. We will see further retreats and defeats by the US project   
    and the Zionist entity. As we see it, the future is promising." He notes 
    that current changes serve the aspirations of peoples. Concluding, he    
    says that Lebanon "possesses sufficient strength to confront all         
    changes, all developments and all challenges. Therefore, there is no     
    cause for fear but hope, God willing."                                   
                                                                             
    In concluding remarks, Na'im thanks "all the television stations that    
    contributed to transmitting this episode - NBN, Press TV, Al-Alam TV,    
    Al-Dunya TV, and Al-Nur radio station".                                  
                                                                             
    Source: Al-Manar Television, Beirut, in Arabic 1730 gmt 24 Oct 11        
                                                                             
    BBC Mon Alert ME1 MEEauosc 261011 sg                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011
</description>
    <date>2011-10-26 11:23:13</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/730304_afghanistan-africa-latam-east-asia-fsu-mesa-lebanese.html</permalink>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>731607</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] Anonymous potential
</title>
    <description>   Ah, OK I was unaware of this. We will get something out soon. 
   From: Jacob Shapiro &lt;jacob.shapiro@stratfor.com&gt;
   Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2011 07:54:36 -0500
   To: &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [CT] Anonymous potential
   we are still interested in it, last i heard the discussion was going to be
   redrafted and sent out again.

   On 10/24/11 7:41 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

     yes, understood.  I didn't know they chose not to publish it.  We had
     talked about narrowing the focus.

     On 10/24/11 7:35 AM, scott stewart wrote:

       Remember, just because OPS choses not to publish something at a
       particular time does not mean that we stop following the issue. 
       From: Colby Martin &lt;colby.martin@stratfor.com&gt;
       Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
       Date: Sun, 23 Oct 2011 11:19:29 -0500
       To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
       Subject: [CT] Anonymous potential
       I don't know what happened to our anonymous piece Tristan was going to
       write, but I still think a look is valuable.  They don't just have to
       do denial of service attacks, but release of personal information -
       such as what they did against Sony Playstation and now these douche
       bags.  What would happen if they could hack into an email account of a
       public figure and find connections to El Chapo?  What if they found
       bank accounts shared by public officials and cartel members?  What if
       websites they targeted had names and addresses of officials in any
       country linked to child porno rings?  I just think that we need to
       look at what Anonymous could do to change their MO, and become more
       effective than just shutting down websites. 

       Anonymous Hacks Lolita City Alleged Porn Ring

       First Posted: 10/22/11 11:29 AM ET Updated: 10/22/11 03:21 PM ET

       The "hacktivist" group Anonymous has uncovered what it says was a
       massive child pornography ring, according to the Examiner.

       The hackers targeted several websites, including "Lolita City," which
       the Guardian says included 1,589 users.

       The attack was part of Anonymous' "Operation Darknet." The Guardian
       explains that "Darknet websites are part of the Invisible Web,
       sometimes called the Deep Web, containing content that is not part of
       the Surface Web, which is indexed by standard search engines."

       Anonymous published the usernames of those who frequent Lolita City,
       which, the Guardian reports, had 100 gigabytes of child porn.

       "We have been targeting them in secret for a while now, taking down
       their servers as much as possible," one hacker named Arson told Gawker
       in a chat. "We decided to seek media attention for this operation so
       that we may get the resources needed to shut them down on a more
       permanent basis."

       Some of the username's are explicit, while others are just creepy and
       ominous. Take the monickers "redhotchily", "PantyhosePedo" and
       "PureEvil" as examples.

       Unlike its reported attempts to "erase" the New York Stock Exchange,
       or its alleged involvement in the Playstation hack, the uncovering of
       an alleged child porn ring is unlikely to bring Anonymous much scorn.

       This latest Anonymous mission is more in line with the group's
       targeting of the nearly universally despised Westboro Baptist Church.

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

   --
   Jacob Shapiro
   STRATFOR
   Director, Operations Center
   cell: 404.234.9739
   office: 512.279.9489
   e-mail: jacob.shapiro@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 15:19:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/731607_re-ct-anonymous-potential-.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>731624</id>
    <title>CHINA/INDIA/HONG KONG - Chinese army develops drug to keep soldiers
	awake for up to 72 hours - paper
</title>
    <description>    Chinese army develops drug to keep soldiers awake for up to 72 hours -   
    paper                                                                    
                                                                             
    Text of report headlined "PLA eyes 'night eagle' to make army of night   
    owls" published by Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post website  
    on 16 October                                                            
                                                                             
    The People's Liberation Army (PLA) [Chinese army] has opened up a new    
    front in the war against sleep.                                          
                                                                             
    It has developed a drug that can keep its soldiers awake and active for  
    as long as 72 hours, state television reported yesterday. But its        
    scientists didn't disclose its ingredients.                              
                                                                             
    The anti-sleep drug - called Night Eagle - was unveiled as one of 600    
    scientific achievements in an exhibition marking the 60th anniversary of 
    the Academy of Military Medical Sciences. The China Central Television   
    report did not give further details about the new drug, such as any hint 
    of its composition, how it works or its possible side effects.           
                                                                             
    Instead, quoting academy researcher Wang Lin, it said the drug was       
    developed specifically for the military to help soldiers cope with sleep 
    deprivation during missions.                                             
                                                                             
    "Our troops will have to stay awake for a long time while being able to  
    maintain cognitive abilities when they are deployed in search and rescue 
    operations after earthquakes, floods and other disasters and some        
    special military missions," Wang said.                                   
                                                                             
    Analysts said the Night Eagle drug appeared similar to                   
    sleep-suppressants widely used by armed forces of other countries.       
                                                                             
    "Although I have no information about the newly invented drug, it is not 
    at all surprising to see efforts to control sleep and develop anti-sleep 
    technology because of their apparent practical uses in combat            
    situations," said Professor Ni Lexiong, a Shanghai-based military        
    expert.                                                                  
                                                                             
    "Whether our troops can deprive themselves of sleep hours or even days   
    longer than their opponents could make a major difference in combat," Ni 
    said.                                                                    
                                                                             
    Ni believed the PLA would not reveal the drug's composition or           
    associated experimental data, but said it probably worked the same way   
    as other stimulants developed in the West. Any possible side effects of  
    the drug were also unknown.                                              
                                                                             
    One popular military stimulant in the West is modafinil, which was       
    originally developed to treat narcolepsy but is now used by US, French,  
    British and Indian armed forces as an alternative to amphetamines, as    
    well as by students to fight fatigue.                                    
                                                                             
    Modafinil has been a popular lifestyle drug for people who want to       
    chemically turn off sleep with fewer side effects.                       
                                                                             
    Experts also said anti-sleep drugs were becoming more important hi-tech  
    aids and the US military reportedly developed a formulation that kept    
    soldiers awake for seven straight days and nights in the early 2000s.    
                                                                             
    Source: South China Morning Post website, Hong Kong, in English 16 Oct   
    11                                                                       
                                                                             
    BBC Mon AS1 ASDel ma                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011
</description>
    <date>2011-10-17 15:09:10</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/731624_china-india-hong-kong-chinese-army-develops-drug-to-keep.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>737590</id>
    <title>UNITED STATES/AMERICAS-President Says UK Falkland Stance 'Stupidity'
</title>
    <description>   President Says UK Falkland Stance 'Stupidity'
   Report by Ernesto Azarkevich from Posadas: "For Cristina, the English
   Position on Malvinas is a 'Stupidity'" - Clarin.com
   Friday June 17, 2011 21:31:47 GMT
   Cristina Fernandez said that she was responding in her character as the
   "president of all" (Argentines) and she categorized the British prime
   minister's remarks as being "arrogant, mediocre, and almost stupid." She
   also described the United Kingdom as "a clumsy colonial power in a state
   of decline."

   "We are going to continue claiming sovereignty (of the Malvinas) and
   calling for dialogue in the United Nations and in all international
   forums. We are going to recover them (the islands) by acting legally and
   peacefully," she declared in a heated tone. "We are going to continue tire
   lessly to claim sovereignty and to call on them to meet us for talks," she
   added.

   The president arrived in Misiones on board the Tango 01 presidential
   aircraft precisely at 1245 and took part in a videoconference with San
   Juan Governor Jose Luis Gioja to inaugurate a technical school; and also
   with Ministry of Industry Debora Giorgi, who was in the Misiones Province
   city of Eldorado, where the Brazilian firm Dass expanded its shoe assembly
   plant.

   Cristina Fernandez's visit -- the eighth during her presidency -- came
   just 10 days before the provincial elections and was a sign of the
   administration's obvious support for the current Misiones governor,
   Kirchnerite Maurice Closs, who is running for reelection.

   The excuse for her trip was the opening of a musical theater in the
   Knowledge Center in Posadas. There she heard Piazzolla's Libertango and
   spoke with dancer Inaki Urlezaga, who appeared at the opening performance
   in the theater.

   Very early in the morning the police assigned 800 agents to the security
   operation due to strong rumors about clashes between supporters of the
   mayor of Posadas, Orlando Franco, and of his chief rival, the current
   (provincial) minister of social development, Joaquin Losada. Both are
   running with the pro-government Renewal Front, but with different
   factions.

   From the podium, during his speech Governor Closs called on his supporters
   "to remain calm during this final phase of the campaign; we need to go to
   each neighborhood eight times, but we must always remain peaceful as we do
   so." This exhortation came after a Renewal Front supporter was killed in a
   knife fight at a political rally on 25 May.

   The president was accompanied by just a few officials and she remained in
   Posadas for an hour and a half. Dressed in black, she delivered netbooks
   to students, title deeds to small farmers, and 35 million pesos
   ($8,551,184.11 USD) to subsidize the price of yerba mate p roduced by
   small growers in the province.

   She devoted one paragraph of her speech to the media, saying: "I do not
   want to cry today so that they will not label me 'the weeping woman...' "I
   am not going to give them that pleasure."

   The federal government has also pledged to disburse 180 million pesos
   ($43,977,518.19 USD) for a new drinking water treatment plant and a
   drinking water system for the city of Puerto Iguazu, a city that is a
   major tourist attraction.

   (Description of Source: Buenos Aires Clarin.com in Spanish -- Online
   version of highest-circulation, tabloid-format daily owned by the Clarin
   media group; generally critical of government; URL: http://www.clarin.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.
</description>
    <date>2011-06-19 12:30:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-16 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/737590_united-states-americas-president-says-uk-falkland-stance.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mailto:translations@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>translations@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>dialogbot@smtp.stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>739344</id>
    <title>FALKLAND ISLANDS (ISLAS MALVINAS)/-President Says UK Falkland Stance
	'Stupidity'
</title>
    <description>   President Says UK Falkland Stance 'Stupidity'
   Report by Ernesto Azarkevich from Posadas: "For Cristina, the English
   Position on Malvinas is a 'Stupidity'" - Clarin.com
   Friday June 17, 2011 21:31:47 GMT
   Cristina Fernandez said that she was responding in her character as the
   "president of all" (Argentines) and she categorized the British prime
   minister's remarks as being "arrogant, mediocre, and almost stupid." She
   also described the United Kingdom as "a clumsy colonial power in a state
   of decline."

   "We are going to continue claiming sovereignty (of the Malvinas) and
   calling for dialogue in the United Nations and in all international
   forums. We are going to recover them (the islands) by acting legally and
   peacefully," she declared in a heated tone. "We are going to continue tire
   lessly to claim sovereignty and to call on them to meet us for talks," she
   added.

   The president arrived in Misiones on board the Tango 01 presidential
   aircraft precisely at 1245 and took part in a videoconference with San
   Juan Governor Jose Luis Gioja to inaugurate a technical school; and also
   with Ministry of Industry Debora Giorgi, who was in the Misiones Province
   city of Eldorado, where the Brazilian firm Dass expanded its shoe assembly
   plant.

   Cristina Fernandez's visit -- the eighth during her presidency -- came
   just 10 days before the provincial elections and was a sign of the
   administration's obvious support for the current Misiones governor,
   Kirchnerite Maurice Closs, who is running for reelection.

   The excuse for her trip was the opening of a musical theater in the
   Knowledge Center in Posadas. There she heard Piazzolla's Libertango and
   spoke with dancer Inaki Urlezaga, who appeared at the opening performance
   in the theater.

   Very early in the morning the police assigned 800 agents to the security
   operation due to strong rumors about clashes between supporters of the
   mayor of Posadas, Orlando Franco, and of his chief rival, the current
   (provincial) minister of social development, Joaquin Losada. Both are
   running with the pro-government Renewal Front, but with different
   factions.

   From the podium, during his speech Governor Closs called on his supporters
   "to remain calm during this final phase of the campaign; we need to go to
   each neighborhood eight times, but we must always remain peaceful as we do
   so." This exhortation came after a Renewal Front supporter was killed in a
   knife fight at a political rally on 25 May.

   The president was accompanied by just a few officials and she remained in
   Posadas for an hour and a half. Dressed in black, she delivered netbooks
   to students, title deeds to small farmers, and 35 million pesos
   ($8,551,184.11 USD) to subsidize the price of yerba mate p roduced by
   small growers in the province.

   She devoted one paragraph of her speech to the media, saying: "I do not
   want to cry today so that they will not label me 'the weeping woman...' "I
   am not going to give them that pleasure."

   The federal government has also pledged to disburse 180 million pesos
   ($43,977,518.19 USD) for a new drinking water treatment plant and a
   drinking water system for the city of Puerto Iguazu, a city that is a
   major tourist attraction.

   (Description of Source: Buenos Aires Clarin.com in Spanish -- Online
   version of highest-circulation, tabloid-format daily owned by the Clarin
   media group; generally critical of government; URL: http://www.clarin.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.
</description>
    <date>2011-06-19 12:48:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-16 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/739344_falkland-islands-islas-malvinas-president-says-uk-falkland.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mailto:translations@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
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      <tag><name>dialogbot@smtp.stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>740051</id>
    <title>US/AFRICA/LATAM/EAST ASIA/MESA - "U-turn" in Turkish policy on Syria,
	Iran said guided by USA, West -
	IRAN/US/CHINA/TURKEY/SYRIA/IRAQ/EGYPT/BAHRAIN/LIBYA/MOROCCO/YEMEN/TUNISIA/UK
</title>
    <description>    "U-turn" in Turkish policy on Syria, Iran said guided by USA, West       
                                                                             
    Text of report by Turkish newspaper Cumhuriyet website on 24 October     
                                                                             
    [Column by Orhan Bursali: "Excuse Me, Is Iraq in China? The Story of a   
    U-turn"]                                                                 
                                                                             
    Some journalists and columnists who portray themselves as "Kurdish       
    experts" have declared that Iran and Syria were "behind" the [ 19        
    October] PKK attack [in Cukurca]. They base this claim on the remarks of 
    Prime Minister Erdogan. The prime minister said in his first statement   
    after the attack that [the PKK] was serving as "a poker for certain      
    countries." Our Kurdish experts claim that [Erdogan] meant Syria and     
    Iran with these remarks.                                                 
                                                                             
    It would appropriate for a pro-US person to point at Iran and Syria,     
    which have become the new targets of the United States. However, is it   
    also not possible that the prime minister also meant Iran and Syria? It  
    is possible because Turkey allowed the United States to trample upon its 
    policies of "zero problems" and "friendship and cooperation" [with its   
    neighbours]. Whether Iran and Syria are or are not behind the PKK attack 
    is not important at all. More than 950 soldiers and officers have been   
    martyred during the tenure of the AKP government. The PKK was attacking  
    the army around this time last year also, when our relations with it     
    were very good. At that time, no one alleged that Iran and Syria were    
    behind the PKK.                                                          
                                                                             
    The reason is that now an "American rock" has fallen on their heads.     
    Indeed, the TRT [Turkish Radio and TV Administration] immediately put    
    Iran on the public agenda. Supposedly, Tehran captured [Assembly of      
    Communities of Kurdistan Executive Council President Murat] Karayilan    
    and released him. Tehran refuted that report. The TRT must now ask who   
    fooled them.                                                             
                                                                             
    The TRT should have asked: "Which dark forces want us to air this report 
    and want to portray Iran as an enemy to the Turkish public?" That is     
    when it would have practiced good journalism. It appears that the TRT    
    will assume quite important responsibilities in the coming hot days.     
                                                                             
    Ankara's sharp U-turn from its policy of "zero problems" happened only   
    recently. It occurred just before the bombing of Libya began.            
                                                                             
    I re-read Erdogan's statement soon after hearing about the NATO decision 
    to intervene in Libya. If you would not sign that statement, I would. On 
    28 February 2011, the Anatolia Agency reportedthe prime minister's       
    statement with the headline: "What business does NATO have in Libya?"    
    [The report continued:]                                                  
                                                                             
    "[The prime minister said:] 'Should NATO intervene in Libya? Is such     
    absurdity possible? What business does NATO have in Libya? NATO can take 
    such action only if there is an [attack] on any one of its members.      
    Outside that, how can there be an intervention in Libya? Turkey opposes  
    this action. Such a thing cannot be discussed or contemplated a . I must 
    sadly note that, when Turkey sided with democracy and human rights in a  
    highly principled, consistent, and brave posture, not a single peep was  
    heard from Europe about these issues a . We find any discussion of       
    interventions or sanctions in response to events in Libya disconcerting  
    for the Libyan people and foreigners living Libya. Peoples must not be   
    made to pay for the mistakes of their leaders.                           
                                                                             
    "'Any sanctions or interventions, which may mean punishing the Libyan    
    people, may lead to extensive and unacceptable problems. Everyone must   
    understand that we think Tunisia belongs to the Tunisian people, Egypt   
    belongs to Egyptians, Bahrain belongs to Bahrainis, Yemen belongs to     
    Yemenis, Libya belongs to Libyans, and Morocco belongs to Moroccans. The 
    peoples of those countries and no one else must decide their own         
    destinies. No one should make calculations about the oil wells in these  
    countries. We cannot view such issues from a standpoint of               
    self-interest. Our perspective must be centred on people, justice,       
    fairness, and the law.'"                                                 
                                                                             
    These correct positions were quickly abandoned a short time after they   
    were articulated and Turkey entered the Pentagon's war track. When they  
    realized that Libya will be bombed and Al-Qadhafi will go, they switched 
    to policies of "realpolitik and self-interest." Their American friends   
    whispered in their ears:                                                 
                                                                             
    "What are you doing? You would be in a diffic ult position if the United 
    States and the West withdraw their support. You already have problems    
    steering the judiciary at home. You are trying your opponents and the    
    army with forged documents. There is no justice. You trample upon the    
    freedom of the press. You cannot pursue a policy that weakens our basic  
    policies in the Middle East."                                            
                                                                             
    No doubt, the Americans made these sentiments known. The government is   
    sufficiently intelligent to get the message articulated above.           
                                                                             
    The U-turn in Libya was followed by a U-turn in Syria. After all, the    
    United States is determined to throw Syria into disarray also. Ankara    
    immediately took the required position. A full U-turn with respect to    
    Iran has not yet materialized. There is still time for that; first, the  
    Syria affair has to come to a conclusion.                                
                                                                             
    Excuse me: Is the PKK based in a remote corner of China rather than      
    US-controlled Iraq? Or is Iraq in reality an Iran or Syria? It is hard   
    to keep one's thoughts straight when everything spins so fast.           
                                                                             
    Source: Cumhuriyet website, Istanbul, in Turkish 24 Oct 11               
                                                                             
    BBC Mon EU1 EuroPol ME1 MEPol 301011 nn/osc                              

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011
</description>
    <date>2011-10-30 09:35:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/740051_us-africa-latam-east-asia-mesa-u-turn-in-turkish-policy-on.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>nobody@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:translations@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>translations@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>744691</id>
    <title>AFGHANISTAN/AFRICA/LATAM/EU/MESA - Columnist suggests USA seeking to
	use Turkey to undermine Syria, Iran -
	IRAN/US/ISRAEL/TURKEY/AFGHANISTAN/FRANCE/SYRIA/IRAQ/EGYPT/LIBYA/TUNISIA
</title>
    <description>    Columnist suggests USA seeking to use Turkey to undermine Syria, Iran    
                                                                             
    Text of report by Turkish newspaper Star website on 3 November           
                                                                             
    [Commentary by Sedat Laciner: "Syrian trap to Turkey"]                   
                                                                             
    President Barack Obama's style is quite different from that of his       
    predecessor. When George W Bush would encounter a problem in a country,  
    he would attempt to directly invade that country, he would mass tens and 
    even hundreds of thousands of troops, and he would attempt to change the 
    borders, the regimes, and the leaders. In the "Bush style" the targeted  
    country would sustain great damages, but US troops and funds would also  
    be risked in a similar manner.                                           
                                                                             
    The Obama-led Democrats in turn believe that Bush's stand has brought    
    the United States's to the point of bankruptcy. According to them, both  
    the globalized economic crisis and the shaking in the social balances in 
    the United States are the results of the Iraq and Afghanistan            
    adventures. Drawing the necessary lessons from bad examples, the         
    Democrats engaged in a very different method in Libya, Egypt, and        
    Tunisia. It is possible to list the lessons that have been drawn as      
    follows:                                                                 
                                                                             
    1. They did not get directly involved in the clashes in Libya, they did  
    not take place in the first ranks.                                       
                                                                             
    2. They encouraged other eager countries such as France to share the     
    costs.                                                                   
                                                                             
    3. They ensured the involvement of NATO and the United Nations and this  
    way, they ensured that the intervention would not merely be a US         
    intervention.                                                            
                                                                             
    4. They received the support of the Arab World and Turkey and this way,  
    they have stopped the regional reactions from the very beginning.        
                                                                             
    5. Most important, Muammar al-Qadhafi was overcome by the Libyans. In    
    other words, they had Libyans kill Libyans. The dissidents were given    
    arms and armed training. Certain intelligence units determined all the   
    shortfalls of al-Qadhafi and his men and they shared this information    
    with the dissidents. Similar developments also occurred and continue to  
    occur in Egypt, Syria, and other Arab countries.                         
                                                                             
    Obama is more dangerous                                                  
                                                                             
    The "Obama style" was greeted with applause in Turkey and the entire     
    world. For example, despite the fact that the administration in Libya    
    has undergone change in line with the wishes of the United States, as    
    opposed to the past, serious anti-American sentiments have not been      
    encountered in the streets of Turkey. I also accept that when compared   
    with Bush's style the new approach has many positive sides. However I    
    believe that this new method, which can also be described as "picking up 
    the flame with a pair of tongs," carries more fatal risks than the Bush  
    era for Turkey. This is because in the new method the targeted country   
    and its neighbours are charged to pay all the cost.                      
                                                                             
    When you look in this context, you will see that if Iran and Syria are   
    the countries in line, bloody civil wars await these countries.          
    Similarly if the United States which is getting ready to withdraw from   
    Iraq encounters serious problems in Iraq, as opposed to the past it will 
    have regional forces clash with each other, rather than dispatching      
    soldiers to Iraq. Under such circumstances Turkey will sustain the       
    greatest damage.                                                         
                                                                             
    Tender to Turkey?                                                        
                                                                             
    The latest developments especially regarding Syria are enough to         
    increase the concerns on this issue. The US and the Israeli press        
    insistently try to portray Turkey as the supporter and the leader of the 
    armed opposition in Syria. Unfortunately, from time to time Turkey is    
    unknowingly giving material to those who do not have good intentions on  
    this issue in any way whatsoever. I had drawn attention to this issue in 
    this column months ago and I had said: "Efforts are being made to kill   
    two birds with one stone by having Turkey and Syria clash with each      
    other." More data which increases my fears in this regard is being       
    exposed. Syrian President Bashar al-Asad is certain that Turkey wants    
    his head. According to the Allawites Turkey wants to change the regime   
    in Syria and it openly encourages a civil war. In short, efforts are     
    being made to assign Turkey the role that the United States used to      
    assume in the past. There is no doubt that a Syria which thinks in this! 
    manner extends further support to the PKK. In other words, efforts are   
    being made to try to implement the Libyan model in Syria by modifying    
    it. Nonetheless the calculations over Turkey are not merely limited to   
    Syria. These calculations are also being made in association with Iran.  
    If Iran is stopped by Turkey, Turkey which will weaken both militarily   
    and economically will be tamed and a problem such as Iran will be gotten 
    rid of at a low cost.                                                    
                                                                             
    As you can see, the calculations are extremely logical on paper in terms 
    of the West and Israel. Time will show when they will be implemented.    
                                                                             
    Source: Star website, Istanbul, in Turkish 3 Nov 11                      
                                                                             
    BBC Mon EU1 EuroPol ME1 MEPol 071111 em/osc                              

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011
</description>
    <date>2011-11-07 19:11:11</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/744691_afghanistan-africa-latam-eu-mesa-columnist-suggests-usa.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>nobody@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
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      <tag><name>translations@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>745547</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] [TACTICAL]  Palantir (software)
</title>
    <description>   Oh shit, I was way off.  I mixed these guys up with another company in my
   head.  Kerley is right about it's analytical functions.  The main public
   platform they are selling can crunch a lot of data and is used to identify
   and track fraudulent activity. These guys also came up for working with
   HBGary in trying to monitor wikileaks.

   I think Palantir is up to some shadier stuff to.  Including funding
   facebook........  (palantir's CEO is even depicted in the movie)

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "CT AOR" &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, November 8, 2011 3:30:52 PM
   Subject: Re: [CT] [TACTICAL]  Palantir (software)

   Yes, I think they do deep packet inspection stuff.  To oversimplify, this
   means the ability to look through internet traffic very carefully. 
   Similar to the stuff the Syrians were recently reported to be using. 

   Great for monitoring people who think they are anonymous, and, wait for
   it.......attribution!

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Rodger Baker" &lt;rbaker@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "CT AOR" &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "TACTICAL" &lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, November 8, 2011 3:27:23 PM
   Subject: Re: [TACTICAL] [CT] Palantir (software)

   I'm pretty sure I demoed one of their systems once.

   http://www.palantirtech.com/government

   On Nov 8, 2011, at 3:16 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

   &gt; ** anybody heard of this software?
   &gt;
   &gt; --------------------------------------------------------------------
   &gt;
   &gt; a company called Palantir, and it was their software that DHS/ICE used
   &gt; to help light up the Zeta network. You'll recall that the sweep of
   &gt; arrests was massive. I think there was a report that said there was some
   &gt; kind of law enforcement action in all 50 states, in addition to Mexico
   &gt; and other countries.

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967
   www.STRATFOR.com

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967
   www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-08 23:07:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/745547_re-ct-tactical-palantir-software-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>746568</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] Anonymous and Occupy divergence...in the Iowa caucuses
</title>
    <description>   occupying the caucasus themselves would be impossible -- as Sean noted its
   direct participatory democracy...each congressional district is split into
   not-so-small number of precincts, withe separate meeting places for
   democrats and republicans

   so my home town -- population 26k -- had 12 caucasus locations

   the greater des moines are (cue the laughter) would have something like 25
   times that

   and there is one other nice thing about Iowa -- the roads leading out are
   in immaculate condition

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "CT AOR" &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "Peter Zeihan" &lt;peter.zeihan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, November 9, 2011 9:30:51 PM
   Subject: Anonymous and Occupy divergence...in the Iowa caucuses

   Ironically after all my Anonymous bashing, i want to point out a very
   minor development. Mainly because it's funny to me. 

   I mentioned the Occupy Des Moines protest last week sometime.  It is very
   small, and a lot like Austin's.  They have been planning for a few weeks
   to Occupy the Iowa caucuses.  For those of you that don't know about the
   practice of the most important local democratic process in the world, the
   Iowa Caucuses are the first round of true competition between presidential
   candidates.  Unlike voting in a primary, it's more like a town hall
   meeting with much debate and discussion--a very open democratic form.  A
   candidate doesn't have to win Iowa necessarily to get the presidential
   nomination, but it serves to weed most of the bad ones early on in the
   race  (Iowans are fallible, they have made mistakes too). It's the one
   time that Iowa has an influence on politics, and I often say it is Iowa's
   one good thing.  I think it's January 3. 

   Back to the protestors.  Their plan has been developing to "occupy"
   candidate's offices.  That really means protest in front of the offices,
   which if you think of all the little shitty strip malls you see around,
   one small section would be a campaign office.  They have no security, and
   allow a lot of access to candidates if they choose to campaign in Iowa.
   The Occupy Des Moines group are not at all planning to disrupt the
   Caucuses functioning.  Though I wouldn't be surprised if they protested
   outside caucus meeting places, or more likely, brought their signs and
   slogans in with them.  These people are experienced organizers (as it
   comes to des moines), and know that if they have a political impact, one
   of the best places to aim it is the Caucuses. 

   Now here comes "Anonymous."  Those of you that read the Wired background
   know that their real effect has been in popularizing "memes."  One of
   these was actually Occupy Wall Street- 
   http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/20/occupy-wall-street-anonymous-connection_n_1021665.html 
   The mob of computer users and protest movement have been running on
   parallel tracks for awhile, and have served to mutually reinforce each
   other.

   Whoever from Anonymous made this new video about the Caucuses has made an
   ass out of themselves.  The video recommends actually shutting down the
   Caucuses.  That is both tactically dumb for the Occupy movement, but also
   totally antithetical to its general ideology.  For example, a Caucus
   functions very similarly to the Occupy General Assembly meetings--direct
   participatory democracy. 

   The Des Moines organizers have already spoken up- saying they have nothing
   to do with this "Anonymous" bullshit.  I'm happy to see I left them with
   some sense of realism.  This little event is not going to matter very
   much, but it shows how uncoordinated Anonymous is. 

   See the article below, the video is at the link. 

   Video calls for shutting down Iowa caucuses; the group Anonymous claims
   responsibility
   Jason Clayworth
   4:55 PM, Nov 6, 2011
   http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/11/06/video-calls-for-shutting-down-iowa-caucuses-the-group-anonymous-claims-responsibility/

   An anarchist-style movement that has caught the attention of the FBI and
   taken credit for hacking into military and corporate websites has now
   claimed responsibility for creating a video that urges its supporters to
   shut down the Iowa caucuses.

   Local authorities say they are aware of the video, are preparing for
   possible action by the group and are in contact with the presidential
   campaigns about the issue.

   A computer-generated voice in the online video, which had received more
   than 1,600 views by Sunday evening, says, a**Both parties are desecrating
   the American democracy and committing crimes against humanity on behalf of
   the American people.a**

   It continues: a**The primaries and caucuses put on by these parties are
   part of an elaborate scam that deceives the public into voting for
   candidates that serve the private interests of the mega corporations.
   These parties have deliberately driven tens of millions of people into
   poverty.a**

   It later says: a**We are calling upon you to occupy the campaign offices
   of presidential headquarters in Des Moines, Iowa, on Dec. 27, and
   peacefully shut down the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3.a**

   The group is believed to have no centralized operational leadership and
   appears to be piggybacking on the Occupy Des Moines movement.

   But Occupy Des Moines leaders say therea**s a difference: The Iowa
   groupa**s planned sit-ins at presidential campaign headquarters are not
   intended to shut down the Iowa caucuses, they say. Rather, they want to
   target presidential candidates and big-moneyed corporations that activists
   say are pulling the strings behind the scenes.

   While there are similarities between the groupsa** beliefs, they are
   separate, Occupy Des Moines participants emphasized Sunday.

   a**I dona**t like it one bit,a** former Rep. Ed Fallon, a Des Moines
   Democrat and participant in Occupy Des Moines, said of the video on
   Sunday. a**It doesna**t fit with my definition of Gandhi- and Martin
   Luther King Jr.-style nonviolence. The core of nonviolent action is truth.
   And if you are doing everything you can to be truthful, then you should be
   up front and transparent. No distorting of your voice or hiding.a**

   FBI sees Anonymous as security threat

   The Anonymous movement has become a potential national security threat,
   according to an article published in September by the Associated Press.

   The FBI has carried out more than 75 raids and arrested at least 16 people
   this year in connection with illegal Internet hacking jobs for which the
   group has claimed responsibility, according to the AP. One demonstration
   disrupted traffic in San Francisco as a protest after the Bay Area Rapid
   Transit system shut off cell service to deter a planned protest of a
   police shooting on a subway platform.

   The group also claimed responsibility for hacking the online payment
   processing center PayPal after it had suspended WikiLeaksa** account after
   WikiLeaks published sensitive U.S. government intelligence documents, the
   AP reported.

   Three of the Iowa campaign headquarters of presidential candidates are in
   Urbandale a** those of Michele Bachmann, a U.S. representative from
   Minnesota; former Godfathera**s Pizza CEO Herman Cain; and former
   Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.

   Urbandale police are aware of the video, and while they arena**t releasing
   details of their security plans, authorities will be prepared should the
   demonstrations take an illegal turn, Urbandale officer Randy Peterson said
   Sunday.

   a**Wea**ll just try to address any issue as they arise,a** Peterson said.

   Occupy movement: We dona**t plan to interfere with voting

   Occupy Des Moines, an offshoot of an anti-Wall Street protest group, last
   week announced plans to launch nonviolent sit-ins inside campaign offices
   in the final week before the Iowa caucuses. Some of the groupa**s members
   have said they expect large-scale arrests, but they have emphasized they
   do not plan to commit violence or interfere with voting.

   a**There might be some overlapa** in what the groups believe, a**but
   Anonymous speaks for themselves and the Occupy Movement speaks for
   itself,a** said David Goodner, a demonstrator who often speaks on behalf
   of Occupy Des Moines. a**Whether the public can understand that or not,
   Ia**m not sure, but for me therea**s a clear difference.a**

   State officials were preparing for a variety of public safety scenarios
   associated with the Iowa caucuses before the video was released, said John
   Benson, a public information officer for Iowaa**s Homeland Security and
   Emergency Management Division

   a**Obviously with the video that theya**ve put out and some of the other
   work theya**re doing, that certainly increases your overall awareness,a**
   Benson said. a**But to say wea**re going to do something specific in our
   planning process, we cana**t say that right now, but it certainly has our
   attention.a**

   Party leaders: Let caucuses proceed

   Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Matt Strawn said the partya**s state
   central committee will discuss the situation at its next meeting.

   a**Successive generations of Iowans of both political parties have worked
   awfully hard to make sure Iowans have this opportunity to participate in
   this first-in-the-nation caucus,a** Strawn said. a**I certainly will do
   anything in my power to keep outside agitators from ruining something that
   a lot of people have worked very hard for over a long period of time.a**

   The integrity of the Iowa caucuses would be eroded should attempts to shut
   them down be successful, said Iowa Democratic Party Chairwoman Sue
   Dvorsky.

   a**If anyone is coming and planning to make it so the participants of the
   caucus cannot have a civil and civic conversation, then of course that
   would erode the integrity of the caucuses, and it flies in the face of
   what the caucuses are,a** Dvorsky said. a**Theya**re the most basic
   long-standing tradition in this country of neighbors coming together to
   talk about political issues.a**

   She continued: a**Ia**m hoping Iowans can protect their ability to speak
   freely and respectfully with their neighbors.a**

   About Anonymous

   Anonymous emerged in 2003 from an Internet chat channel where members
   organized web incidents for their own amusement.

   By 2008, the prankster nature of Anonymous morphed into a**hacktivism,a**
   where members sabotaged websites and leaked confidential information for
   political purposes, according to law enforcement authorities.

   The group has no formal leadership and is generally considered to be more
   of a movement than an organization. As the name implies, its members
   generally dona**t identify themselves.

   The group has generally concentrated on Internet hacking. This summer, it
   claimed credit for hacking into a Booz Allen Hamilton website and leaking
   email addresses of 90,000 U.S. military personnel and hacking a Monsanto
   Co. website and releasing personal data on 2,500 employees.

   Sources: USA Today and the Associated Press

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967
   www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-10 14:15:47</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>748498</id>
    <title>[CT] Police move to shut down Occupy camps
</title>
    <description>             Protesters arrested as police clear Occupy encampments

   By Ashley Hayes, CNN
   updated 4:57 PM EST, Sun November 13, 2011

   (CNN) -- Numerous arrests took place in several Western cities as police
   moved in to clear Occupy encampments over the weekend, authorities said.

   In Portland, Oregon, unrest continued into Sunday morning as protesters
   defied a midnight Saturday deadline for the Occupy encampments to close.

   Tensions abated later Sunday as police attempted to peacefully close city
   parks, but flared at one park when protesters refused to leave. Police
   said on Twitter those refusing to leave Chapman Square were being
   arrested.

   Portland police Sgt. Pete Simpson estimated Sunday afternoon that more
   than a dozen people were arrested. Chapman Square was the last city park
   where protesters were gathered, as the others had been vacated as of
   Sunday afternoon, he said.

   Video posted on the website of CNN affiliate KGW showed officers in riot
   gear holding batons facing off with protesters. Simpson said the officers
   were in the gear as a precaution, and were joined by other assisting
   agencies. "We needed the manpower because we used up a lot of resources
   yesterday (Saturday)," he said.

   The operation was "pretty methodical," although a few demonstrators had
   scuffled with officers, he said.

   Video showed authorities dismantling tents at the camp.

   Once the parks are cleared, temporary fencing will be erected so repairs
   can be made, Simpson said. The parks are "pretty beat up," he added.

   One officer was struck in the leg earlier Sunday by a projectile thrown
   from a crowd, and was taken to a hospital, but the injuries were not
   life-threatening, authorities said. One protester was arrested in a
   separate incident overnight, Simpson said.

   Video from the scene showed masses of protesters on downtown streets. In
   the early-morning hours Sunday, police told demonstrators to leave the
   streets or face arrest. All but two of the demonstrators followed that
   order, retreating into several parks, KGW reported.

   "A lot of people packed up and left today," police Lt. Robert King said.
   But hundreds of people showed up in the early morning hours -- some of
   whom have not been affiliated with the Occupy movement until now --
   apparently hoping to witness a police confrontation, King said.

   Early Sunday, Mayor Sam Adams praised police for showing professionalism
   in a "very tense situation."

   Police declared the parks closed as of midnight, Simpson said, "and
   they'll remain closed. They're not going to be open until they're
   repaired."

   Police and parks department employees were on the scene for the closures,
   helping people and removing debris from parks, he said. Those who needed a
   place to stay were being referred to shelters, Simpson said.

   "We're going to be very patient," Adams said earlier Sunday. "I'm
   prioritizing patience ... In order for us to do this peacefully, we need
   the time and folks on the ground need the time to do their work right."

   One member of Occupy Portland, however, said demonstrators were not
   planning to budge.

   "We're talking about issues that matter to people's lives," Kari Koch told
   CNN. Authorities can order them to leave, but protesters have a right to
   assembly and a right to free speech, she said. "We're not going to back
   down and leave the parks just because it's inconvenient for the mayor to
   have us here."

   The Occupy Portland movement, on Twitter, was calling for additional
   protesters as camps were coming down.

   What started as the Occupy Wall Street movement in New York in September
   has spread across major cities worldwide as a call to action against
   unequal distribution of wealth.

   In Philadelphia, Mayor Michael Nutter said Sunday he was increasing police
   presence near the Occupy Philly camp and asking the city's police
   commissioner to "establish structures and strategic positioning and
   deployment of officers on a regular basis in that location."

   What began as a peaceful protest 39 days ago has given way to increasing
   public safety and public health concerns, Nutter told reporters.

   A woman reported she was sexually assaulted Saturday night in a tent at
   the encampment, Nutter said. In addition, there is the threat of fire near
   historic City Hall and concerns about litter, public urination, defecation
   and graffiti, he said.

   Numerous reports of thefts and assaults in the encampment have been made,
   and 15 emergency medical runs were made between October 6 and November 11,
   he said.

   In addition, a maintenance project is set to begin soon on City Hall, one
   of several, he said. A $50 million renovation is planned for Dilworth
   Plaza, where protesters have camped.

   Occupy Philly's general assembly voted Friday night not to move from the
   plaza, and members have not responded in recent weeks to expressions of
   concern from the city, which has repeatedly tried to work with the
   protesters, he said. "Many of the people that we talked to in the
   beginning of this event and activity are now gone," he said.

   "We have things we need to do," Nutter said. "I understand that they have
   things on their mind as Americans and wish to express their free speech. I
   understand that, I get that, I've defended that. The things we're talking
   about, the activities that are going on, are not about free speech.
   They're public health and public safety concerns that have nothing to do
   with Wall Street and corporations."

   The protesters are "purposely standing in the way of nearly 1,000 jobs for
   Philadelphians at a time of high unemployment," Nutter said. "They are
   blocking Philadelphians from taking care of their families."

   "Misconduct is not about free speech," the mayor said, "and the behavior
   we're now seeing is running squarely into the needs of our city government
   that also represents the 99%. As mayor of the city of Philadelphia, I
   represent the 99% also."

   CNN affiliate WPVI reported a suspect was arrested in the alleged sexual
   assault.

   Meanwhile, in Salt Lake City, police said on Twitter 19 people were
   arrested Saturday night as authorities moved in to clear an Occupy Salt
   Lake encampment at a downtown park.

   Police had ordered protesters to leave the park after a man was found dead
   late Thursday night. The cause of death was thought to be carbon monoxide
   poisoning and a drug overdose, CNN affiliate KSTU reported.

   "We can no longer tolerate individuals camping on our streets," Salt Lake
   City Police Chief Chris Burbank told reporters.

   However, "only camping is over," Salt Lake City Mayor Ralph Becker's
   office said on Twitter -- protests can continue at the park. KSTU reported
   authorities said protesters would be allowed to have a 24-hour presence
   and one building, but the tents had to go.

   Since camping began at the park, Becker's office said in the statement,
   "local law enforcement has responded to a dramatically increased amount of
   criminal activity in the park, and has made over 90 arrests in the area
   since early October."

   A melee involving 30 people on Wednesday night led to four arrests,
   Becker's office said, and public safety "has become increasingly
   questionable. Additionally, the amount of human and animal waste, as well
   as drug paraphernalia, is an escalating public concern."

   As police moved in Saturday evening, according to video from the scene,
   protesters chanted, "This is what a police state looks like."

   "Our rights to assembly, which are embodied in the First Amendment, are
   still being violated," protester Jesse Fruhwirth told KSTU. "Our
   forefathers are speaking to us, telling us that this is what assembly
   looks like. Not being able to camp here severely limits the ability of us
   to keep our coalition together."

   "Many thanks to all for a peaceful resolution," Salt Lake City police
   tweeted late Saturday.

   In Denver, police in riot gear arrested 17 people Saturday night as they
   cleared furniture and tents from an Occupy encampment near the city's
   civic center, police spokesman Sonny Jackson told CNN. The main issue, he
   said, was that the items were blocking a right of way.

   "People are welcome to come back and protest, but we don't want them to do
   it in a way that's not safe," Jackson said.

   In Oakland, California, police issued a third notice for demonstrators to
   vacate city parks on Saturday, police spokeswoman Officer Johnna Watson
   told CNN. The protesters had not complied with that order, Watson said.

   A second notice was issued Saturday morning after a fatal shooting near
   the camp, according to CNN affiliate KCBS.  A man in his early 20s was
   shot Friday. Authorities said one of the suspects has been "a frequent
   resident at the encampment over the past several days," KCBS said.

   Also Saturday, 27 protesters were arrested in St. Louis after defying an
   existing park curfew, authorities said.

   Ben West
   Tactical Analyst
   STRATFOR
   512-744-4300
   ext. 4340
</description>
    <date>2011-11-13 23:03:57</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>752119</id>
    <title>ARGENTINA/AMERICAS-President Says UK Falkland Stance 'Stupidity'
</title>
    <description>   President Says UK Falkland Stance 'Stupidity'
   Report by Ernesto Azarkevich from Posadas: "For Cristina, the English
   Position on Malvinas is a 'Stupidity'" - Clarin.com
   Friday June 17, 2011 21:31:47 GMT
   Cristina Fernandez said that she was responding in her character as the
   "president of all" (Argentines) and she categorized the British prime
   minister's remarks as being "arrogant, mediocre, and almost stupid." She
   also described the United Kingdom as "a clumsy colonial power in a state
   of decline."

   "We are going to continue claiming sovereignty (of the Malvinas) and
   calling for dialogue in the United Nations and in all international
   forums. We are going to recover them (the islands) by acting legally and
   peacefully," she declared in a heated tone. "We are going to continue tire
   lessly to claim sovereignty and to call on them to meet us for talks," she
   added.

   The president arrived in Misiones on board the Tango 01 presidential
   aircraft precisely at 1245 and took part in a videoconference with San
   Juan Governor Jose Luis Gioja to inaugurate a technical school; and also
   with Ministry of Industry Debora Giorgi, who was in the Misiones Province
   city of Eldorado, where the Brazilian firm Dass expanded its shoe assembly
   plant.

   Cristina Fernandez's visit -- the eighth during her presidency -- came
   just 10 days before the provincial elections and was a sign of the
   administration's obvious support for the current Misiones governor,
   Kirchnerite Maurice Closs, who is running for reelection.

   The excuse for her trip was the opening of a musical theater in the
   Knowledge Center in Posadas. There she heard Piazzolla's Libertango and
   spoke with dancer Inaki Urlezaga, who appeared at the opening performance
   in the theater.

   Very early in the morning the police assigned 800 agents to the security
   operation due to strong rumors about clashes between supporters of the
   mayor of Posadas, Orlando Franco, and of his chief rival, the current
   (provincial) minister of social development, Joaquin Losada. Both are
   running with the pro-government Renewal Front, but with different
   factions.

   From the podium, during his speech Governor Closs called on his supporters
   "to remain calm during this final phase of the campaign; we need to go to
   each neighborhood eight times, but we must always remain peaceful as we do
   so." This exhortation came after a Renewal Front supporter was killed in a
   knife fight at a political rally on 25 May.

   The president was accompanied by just a few officials and she remained in
   Posadas for an hour and a half. Dressed in black, she delivered netbooks
   to students, title deeds to small farmers, and 35 million pesos
   ($8,551,184.11 USD) to subsidize the price of yerba mate p roduced by
   small growers in the province.

   She devoted one paragraph of her speech to the media, saying: "I do not
   want to cry today so that they will not label me 'the weeping woman...' "I
   am not going to give them that pleasure."

   The federal government has also pledged to disburse 180 million pesos
   ($43,977,518.19 USD) for a new drinking water treatment plant and a
   drinking water system for the city of Puerto Iguazu, a city that is a
   major tourist attraction.

   (Description of Source: Buenos Aires Clarin.com in Spanish -- Online
   version of highest-circulation, tabloid-format daily owned by the Clarin
   media group; generally critical of government; URL: http://www.clarin.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.
</description>
    <date>2011-06-19 12:31:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-16 00:00:00</releasedate>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>758143</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] Anonymous 101: Introduction to the Lulz
</title>
    <description>   So far extremely underwhelming, as expected. 

   10 points to whoever came up with this phrase "ultra-coordinated
   motherfuckery" 

   Unfortunately it is applied to people who are completely uncoordinated and
   couldn't fuck anything.  You can be sure I will find a better use for this
   phrase in the future.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marc Lanthemann" &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "CT AOR" &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, November 8, 2011 2:48:49 PM
   Subject: [CT] Anonymous 101: Introduction to the Lulz

   pretty good cultural overview of anon but useless in terms of figuring out
   "tactical" details.

   On 11/8/11 1:30 PM, Melissa Taylor wrote:

 Haven't read it, but looks very interesting.  This is Part I.

 Recommend reading at link for pics.


 Anonymous 101: Introduction to the Lulz

 http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2011/11/anonymous-101/all/1

 November 8, 2011  |
 5:30 am

 (Any decent coverage of Anonymous is going to verge on some NSFW material at points. There will be questionable language and strange imagery.)

 Last week the net and the media were ablaze with the news that Anonymous might be taking on the Zeta drug cartel in Mexico, a story that has morphed into wider drug corruption story, and led to one American law enforcement official in North Carolina being named as a gang conspirator.

 Also this year, anons released documents on, or d0xed, several police organization and one prominent police vendor in retaliation for heavy-handed law enforcement reactions to occupations associated with the Occupy Wall Street movement. Theya**ve fought with child pornographers, hacked Sony repeatedly, and even tried to releasing compromising pictures to blackmail Bay Area Rapid Transit spokesman Linton Johnson into resigning. (Johnson claimed to have authored and then defended BARTa**s controversial decision to shut off mobile phone service in BART stations to pre-empt an anti-police brutality protest.)

 Theya**ve created law enforcement excitement thata**s verged on panic, given net and media pundits hyperbolic logorrhea about a**cyber terrorisma** and a**cyber freedoma**, and happily skipped between damn funny, deeply disturbing, and self-aggrandizing, depending on the mood of the hive mind at the moment.

 But what is Anonymous?

 In this in-depth series a**Anonymous: Beyond the Mask,a** wea**re going to do our best to answer that.

 NYU Professor and Anonymous researcher Biella Coleman compares Anonymous to the trickster god archetype.

 a**The trickster does exist across America, across Europe, really across the world and it is not in myth but in embodied in group and living practice: in that of the prankster, hacker, the phreaker, the troller (all of whom, have their own unique elements of course, but so does each trickster),a** she wrote in Social Text.

 The trickster isna**t the good guy or the bad guy, ita**s the character that exposes contradictions, initiates change and moves the plot forward. One minute, the loving and heroic trickster is saving civilization. A few minutes later the same trickster is cruel, kicking your ass and eating babies as a snack.

 The conversation about Anonymous points to this trickster nature, veering between praise and fear, with the media at a loss for even how to describe them.

 Wea**ve tried hacker group, notorious hacker group, hacktivists, the Internet Hate Machine, pimply-faced, basement-dwelling teenagers, an activist organization, a movement, a collective, a vigilante group, online terrorists, and any number of other fantastical and colorful terms. None of them have ever really fit. Anonymous has constantly forced us to reach for the thesaurus a** revealing that as a whole, we in the media have no idea what Anonymous really is or what it means.

 It wasna**t until I downloaded and listened to Lulz: A corruption of LOLa**s second album, Corruption, that I grasped what Anonymous really is.

 Ita**s a culture.

 It takes cultures to have albums, idioms, and iconography, and I was swimming in these and more. Anonymous is a nascent and small culture, but one with its own aesthetics and values, art and literature, social norms and ways of production, and even its own dialectic language.

 It is no wonder we in the media and the wider culture are often confused. Any study of Anonymous must be anthropological, taking into account the way people exist in different societies. The media has just been looking for an organization with a leader who could explain why Anonymous seems to do weird things. Not only that, but Anonymous seems to be built around doing weird things, and even has a term for it: the lulz.

 The lulz (a corruption of LOL, online shorthand for laugh out loud) is the most important and abstract thing to understand about Anonymous, and perhaps the internet itself. The lulz is laughing instead of screaming. Ita**s a laughter of embarrassment and separation. Ita**s schadenfreude. Ita**s not the anesthetic humor that makes days go by easier, ita**s humor that heightens contradictions. The lulz is laughter with pain in it. It forces you to consider injustice and hypocrisy, whichever side of it you are on in that moment.

 In the culture of Anonymous, the lulz is the reason for doing. Anonymous wasna**t made for easy times; the trickster sleeps when all is well.
 Inevitablity

 Cultures dona**t emerge from vacuums, and Anonymous is no exception. The birthplace of Anonymous is a website called 4chan founded in 2003, that developed an a**anything goesa** random section known as the /b/ board. 4chan itself comes from Japanese language predecessor called 2chan, founded in 2001. Before that, the lulz and hacker pranking was alive and well in old-school IRC chat rooms, EFnet, and the 1990s hacker scene.

 But if youa**re going back that far, add as influences Mondo 2000, and publications like RE/Search, and a billion shitty zines that were dead by 1996. But those all came from something, too.

 Hacker culture, and almost all of computer culture back in the day is shot through with the Discordian edge of 1960/1970s counter-culture and Robert Anton Wilson and Robert Sheaa**s Illuminatus. So from there ita**s the yippies, Andy Kaufmann, and the Situationists we need to first comprehend, or do we head back to early 20th century absurdists of Dada? Or maybe we venture all the way to that olde booke of epic trolling lulze, Tristram Shandy?

 Wea**re all the way to 1759 now.

 Perhaps this means the 1960s Discordians are right, and therea**s a Ha Ha Only Serious giggle that is cosmic in nature. That there is a part of reality, a force of physics, that is actually a Fundamental Sense of Humor. But the gravity we deal with can only be explained to an even larger amount of Dark Humor, woven into the fabric of the universe.

 The point is Anonymous, despite the false shock of contemporary news reporting, isna**t sui generis. Ita**s not a surprise, and it didna**t spring fully formed from the forehead of Ceiling Cat.

 In this place and time, with the exhaustion of political discourse, the overwhelming pressures of modern life, and rise of the internet, the stochastic network organism of Anonymous was inevitable.

 I will confess up front that I love Anonymous, but not because I think theya**re the heroes.

 Like Alan Moorea**s character V who inspired Anonymous to adopt the Guy Fawkes mask as an icon and fashion item, youa**re never quite sure if Anonymous is the hero or antihero. The trickster is attracted to change and the need for change, and thata**s where Anonymous goes. But they are not your personal army a** thata**s Rule 44 a** yes, there are rules. And when they do something it never goes quite as planned. The internet has no neat endings.

 The trickster as myth proved so compelling that the network made it real. Anonymous, the neta**s trickster, emerged like supernatural movie monster out of the misty realm of ideas and into the real world.

 a**Ultra-coordinated motherfuckerya**

 But to be historical, leta**s start with 4chan.org, a wildly popular board for sharing images and talking about them, and in particular, 4chana**s /b/ board (Really, really, NSFW). /b/ is a web forum where posts have no author names and there are no archives and ita**s explicitly about anything at all. This technological format meeting with the internet in the early 21st Century gave birth to Anonymous, and it remains the mothera**s teat from which Anonymous sucks. (Rule 22)

 Once you pull your hands away from your face and start looking, /b/ is hard to look away from.

 /b/ is the id of the internet, the collective unconsciousa**s version of the place from which the base drives arise. There is no sophistication in the slurs, sexuality, and destruction in the savage landscape of /b/ a** it is the natural state of networked man.

 In this, it has a kind of innocence and purity. Terms like a**niggera** and a**faggota** are common, but not there because of racism and bigotry a** though racism and bigotry are easily found there. Their use is there to keep you out. These words are heads on pikes warning you that further in it gets much worse, and it does.

 Nearly any human appetite is acceptable, nearly any flaw exploited, and probably photographed with a time stamp. But /b/ reminds us that the id is the seat of creative energy. Much of it, hell even most of it, is harmless or even sweet. People reach out for help on /b/, and they find encouragement and advice. The id and /b/ are the foxholes of those who feel powerless and disenfranchised.

 Thata**s what youa**ll find in /b/, the unspoken. a**/b/tardsa**, as denizens of the board are called and call themselves, create incest porn, fantasize about beating women, look for dataviz examples or coding tips. They are grown men that really want to talk about a**My Little Pony: Friendship is Magic.a** Maybe ita**s ironic, maybe ita**s not. (Ia**m told by one such brony that the show is just a lot better than youa**d expect.)

 At some moment lost in its unrecorded history, /b/ and Anonymous reached an inflection point, and the id spilled into the rest of the net in the form of a**ultra-coordinated motherfuckery,a** as one anon described it Coleman. This was the ability to use the technological tools of social coordination so quickly and well that anons working together could collectively attack targets for any perceived slight, or just for fun, without those targets ever having a chance to see it coming or defend themselves.

 These came to be called a**raids.a**

 Over time raids took many forms, eventually moving into the regular world. They could look like protests, massively coordinated pranks, distributed denial of service attacks (DDOS) or straight-up hacking attacks. D0xing, ordering unpaid pizzas, signing people up for embarrassing junk mail were all common raids. Therea**s a raid that you know for sure. Ita**s likely youa**ve even participated, and even more likely youa**ve been a victim of it; the rickroll. The rickroll began as a tool of the /b/tard/Anonymous raid, before spreading so far into the culture that the Oregon legislature and even the US Speaker of the House were rickrolling the world.

 Anonymous spat out other memes like lolcats and pedobear that spread far enough for their origins to be lost to many, but with little profound effect on the rest of the world.

 Even then Anonymous had a vigilante streak, and it could be downright mean. Theya**d d0x someone who abused a cat. In particular they went after abusers of cats, because Anonymous loves cats and pictures of cats. They blocked the pool at the online kida**s game Habbo Hotel with black, generously froa**d avatars declaring a**Pool is closed due to AIDSa** as a protest to perceived racism on the part of Habboa**s admins.

 But Anonymous was never particularly focused. Raids could be devastating or funny, but either way they came and went quickly, the neta**s own little tornado system. Anonymous was never anyonea**s personal army, and never stayed on any one topic for very long.

 It took Tom Cruise to change all that and give Anonymous a political consciousness. Specifically, Tom Cruise as cringe-worthy Scientologist.

 Birth of the a**Moralfagsa**

 A video of a disturbingly manic Cruise leaked out of Scientology in January 2008, and the notably litigious church tried to force hosting services and Gawker to take it down with legal nastygrams.

 But the video contained some truly epic lulz, and Anonymous wouldna**t let it die. The churcha**s effort to kill it off so enraged Anons they decided to destroy the church itself. By enraged, I mean a pissy kind of laughing and spitting at once. For Anonymous being mad meant wanting to troll the church very hard, but it was never to get serious, because getting serious for Anons meant losing.

 To accomplish this op (short for operation), Anons created Project Chanology, which arguably marked both the birth of political consciousness for Anonymous, and the development of its methods of taking mass action.

 Destroying the church was going to be aggro funny, as well as require a lot of dancing. Many have wondered since then, were they serious about destroying the church, or was it all a joke?

 The answer is yes, and understanding that is vital to understanding Anonymous.

 Therea**s no proof that the people that started Project Chanology had any personal beefs against the Church of Scientology beyond their secondhand annoyance at the Churcha**s litigious history and attempted suppression of speech. But probably most importantly, the Church was rampantly guilty of feeding the trolls. (Rule 14)

 But Project Chanology was the perfect way for the people who did have a history with Scientology to jump under the wing of the haughty and lulzy collective. Scientology had pursued its detractors with mean spirited ruthlessness, delving into critica**s personal lives, following them with investigators and ruining their reputations.

 Anonymous didna**t care. Call them rapists, and theya**d laughingly tell you they were child rapists. Accuse them of any crime, and they could point to worse on /b/. Anonymity and the a**words will never hurt mea** ethic that arose out of the aesthetic of extremes on 4chan made them immune to the Churcha**s arsenal.

 But some existing Anons, and the ones that came in from the community of Scientology detractors, really cared about winning this one. They wanted to be the good guys and Scientology to play the bad guys. The Church, they reasoned, hurt people, took their money, and lied to them under the guise of being caretakers and teachers.

 Anonymous claimed to do all those bad things too, but didna**t really, and would never promise to take care of you and teach you, but sometimes did anyway.

 As Coleman put it in her study, they were the perfect nemeses. But Anons caring about doing the right thing is about morality, and morality, at least straight morality, is not the lulz. Many veterans saw this as a corruption of the purity of Anonymous a** the cancer that was killing /b/.

 On February 10, 2008, the a**moralfagsa** took the whole thing to a new level. They set up meeting times and places in cities around the world, bought masks and made signs.

 Anons left the internet by the thousands and showed up in front of church locations and Scientology centers around the world, many wearing their new Guy Fawkes masks, V for Vendetta movie merchandise sold by Warner Brothers, to obscure their identities.

 They played music and walked around with signs which both accused Scientology of crimes and referenced obscure internet memes. They met each other in meat space for the first time. They partied with their own in front of aghast Scientologists in more than 90 cities.

 For the first time, the internet had shown up on the real street, en masse.

 And yes, they brought Long Cat.

 Coming soon: Part Two: Three Years of Epic Trolling the Church of Scientology, the LOIC, and OpPayback

 This post is part of a special series from Quinn Norton, who is embedding with Occupy protestors and going beyond the headlines with Anonymous for Wired.com. For an introduction to the series, read Quinna**s description of the project.


 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967
   www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-08 23:55:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>761478</id>
    <title>Venezuela's Government Grasps Greater Economic Control
</title>
    <description>    Stratfor logo                                                             
   Venezuela's Government Grasps Greater Economic Control                     
                                                                              
    December 5, 2011 | 1219 GMT                                               
    Venezuela's Government Grasps Greater Economic Control                    
    JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty Images                                             
    A Venezuelan soldier monitors French-owned supermarket Exito in Caracas   
    after Venezuela nationalized the chain in 2010                            
    Summary                                                                   
                                                                              
    Venezuela officially unveiled the Law of Costs and Prices, legislation    
    meant to regulate the price of basic goods, on Nov. 23. The law           
    established the National Superintendency of Costs and Prices, which will  
    use a process that is not entirely clear to establish a new price         
    structure designed to address Venezuela's inflation problem. The law      
    gives Caracas more power to threaten companies with fines, seizures and   
    expropriations, and is an attempt to gain control over larger portions    
    of Venezuela's economy.                                                   
                                                                              
    Analysis                                                                  
    Related Links                                                             
      * Special Report: Venezuela's Unsustainable Economic Paradigm           
      * Venezuela: The Message Behind a Nationalization Threat                
      * Venezuela: Food Prices to Increase                                    
      * Venezuela: Government Expands Business Nationalization Powers         
      * Venezuela: Higher Food Prices, Less Stability for Chavez              
                                                                              
    The Venezuelan government Nov. 23 officially unveiled a law designed to   
    regulate the price of basic goods: the Law of Costs and Prices. The law,  
    which has been highly anticipated since its announcement in August,       
    created the National Superintendency of Costs and Prices (Sundecop),      
    which has begun implementing a new price structure designed to address    
    Venezuela's 25-30 percent annual inflation and its challenges with food   
    shortages. Sundecop will set a band of prices for each product, and       
    companies found violating price restrictions will face punishments        
    ranging from fines to expropriation. As STRATFOR has previously           
    discussed, the law is likely to worsen shortages and inflation in         
    Venezuela and to create more opportunities for corruption. It is          
    becoming clear that the law is key to the government's efforts to place   
    greater swaths of Venezuela's economy under state control.                
                                                                              
    The first phase of implementation involves a state audit of companies'    
    accounting procedures, meant to establish a maximum sale price for food,  
    hygiene and cleaning products, and is expected to take 90 days. Sundecop  
    will set the prices of these goods Dec. 15 through a process that is not  
    entirely clear. The companies will have until Jan. 15 to implement the    
    pricing. Meanwhile, the government has frozen the prices of 19 products,  
    including fruit juice, disposable diapers and soap. Starting in January,  
    Sundecop will begin auditing a wider range of products, including         
    pharmaceuticals.                                                          
                                                                              
    Sundecop's head, National Superintendent of Costs Karlin Granadillo, was  
    appointed by President Hugo Chavez and reports to him directly. Chavez    
    clearly intends to heavily influence the superintendency. On the day the  
    new law was implemented, Chavez made a statement to the press explicitly  
    singling out products from a number of foreign companies - including      
    Pepsi Cola, Heinz Foods, Nestle, Manpa, Alimentos Polar, Coca Cola,       
    Biopapel, Agrofruit, Unilever Andina, Johnson &amp; Johnson, Knorr and Glaxo  
    SmithKline - and warning the companies against corruption.                
                                                                              
    The Law of Costs and Prices was enacted to address inflation, which the   
    Venezuelan government is blaming on so-called "speculators" - a loosely   
    defined term that can apply to individuals and organizations that         
    actively attempt to create shortages in order to drive up prices, as      
    well as to companies that happen to have reserves of basic goods they     
    have not yet shipped to local markets. The broad interpretation of the    
    term "speculators" and the government's proclivity for expropriation      
    mean that the government will most likely use the law to seize control    
    of the production and distribution of basic goods.                        
                                                                              
    In fact, immediately following the implementation of the law, the         
    Venezuelan National Guard seized 210 metric tons of powdered milk after   
    an inspection of the facilities of Italian firm Parmalat, which Caracas   
    had accused of hoarding. Parmalat contested the seizure, alleging that    
    the Venezuelan Ministry for Food and the Agricultural Supply and          
    Services Corporation had already designated the milk for distribution,    
    but Chavez rejected Parmalat's claim and threatened to expropriate the    
    firm. Parmalat backed down almost immediately, releasing a public         
    statement apologizing personally to the president, saying, "We regret     
    the discomfort created by our statement ... and offer our sincere         
    apologies to you and the government you lead." Milk has become a          
    strategic good in Venezuela amid persistent and worsening shortages and   
    25-30 percent inflation on basic goods. Milk is not the only product      
    deemed strategic, however, and Parmalat is not the only company that has  
    been affected by state seizures. Chavez said the Venezuelan National      
    Guard has seized smaller but still notable amounts of rice, cornmeal,     
    vegetable oil, sugar and coffee under the auspices of Sundecop's new      
    rules.                                                                    
                                                                              
    One of the uncertainties surrounding the Law of Costs and Prices is that  
    Article 16 of the law states that Sundecop's price regulations do not     
    necessarily cancel existing price regulations. This means there will be   
    multiple price control mechanisms at work, with inconsistent reporting    
    requirements and compliance mechanisms. According to Venezuelan Central   
    Bank Director Armando Leon, there are approximately 500,000 existing      
    price regulations; Sundecop's efforts will raise that number to 1.5       
    million. Unless the price regimes are rationalized with one another,      
    these parallel systems are likely to lead to greater confusion for        
    businesses, more irregularities, and more government action against       
    private producers and retailers.                                          
                                                                              
    The law is a clear attempt by the government to secure greater control    
    over the already highly government-influenced basic-goods market. Having  
    failed in earlier attempts to control goods distribution through          
    subsidiaries of [IMG] Venezuelan state owned oil company Petroleos de     
    Venezuela, the government is using the direct threats of expropriation    
    and force to control distribution. Increased seizures of basic goods by   
    government authorities can be expected as the law is implemented, and     
    affected companies may go out of business.                                
                                                                              
    Give us your thoughts                          Read comments on           
    on this report                                 other reports              
                                                                              
    For Publication                                Reader Comments            
                                                                              
    Not For Publication                                                       
    Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                                
    (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
</description>
    <date>2011-12-05 13:49:47</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-04-30 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/761478_venezuela-s-government-grasps-greater-economic-control-.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>764129</id>
    <title>PNA/AFRICA/LATAM/MESA - Lebanese Hezbollah chief raps USA,
	urges calm in Syria -
	IRAN/US/ISRAEL/LEBANON/PNA/SYRIA/IRAQ/EGYPT/BAHRAIN/LIBYA/YEMEN/TUNISIA
</title>
    <description>    Lebanese Hezbollah chief raps USA, urges calm in Syria                   
                                                                             
    Text of speech by Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah broadcast live by     
    Lebanese Hezbollah Al-Manar TV on 6 December                             
                                                                             
    [Speech by Hezbollah Secretary-General Hasan Nasrallah, via a large      
    screen, to an audience in Al-Rayah Stadium in the southern suburb of     
    Beirut, on the occasion of Ashura, the anniversary of the death of Imam  
    Al-Husayn Bin-Ali in Karbala in 61 Hegira, corresponding to 680 A.D -    
    Live]                                                                    
                                                                             
    In the name of God, the Merciful, the Compassionate. Praise be to God,   
    the Cherisher and Sustainer of the Worlds, and peace and prayers be upon 
    our master and Prophet, the last of the Prophets, Abu-al-Qasim Muhammad  
    Bin-Abdallah; his chaste and righteous households and chosen companions; 
    and all the prophets and messengers. Peace be upon you, my master and    
    saint, Abu-Abdallah, son of the Messenger of God, and upon the souls     
    that settled in your house. Peace be upon you all as long as I live and  
    as long as day and night continue. May God not make this my last vow to  
    visit you. Peace be upon Al-Husayn, Ali Bin-al-Husayn, and the children  
    and companions of Al-Husayn.                                             
                                                                             
    Esteemed scholars, brothers and sisters, God's peace and blessings be    
    upon you all. May God reward you for the tragic event that befell the    
    prophet, peace be upon him, and his household.                           
                                                                             
    First of all I would like to thank you all for your attendance, loyalty, 
    allegiance, commitment, and patience. You stayed up until late yesterday 
    and woke up early today, spending all this time in the sun, as in all    
    previous years. The heat of summer and the cold of winter never          
    prevented you from coming for the loyalty meeting with your master       
    Abu-Abdallah al-Husayn, peace be upon him. I thank you for your          
    attendance and I pray that God will reward you.                          
                                                                             
    On the 10th of Muharram, the anniversary of the martyrdom of             
    Abu-Abdallah al-Husayn and members of his family and companions, we      
    address condolences to our master the prophet, God's peace and prayers   
    be upon him, to his household, to our imams, God's prayers be upon them, 
    and to the grandchild of Al-Husayn, the Imam of the Age [the 12th Shi'i  
    Imam], may God hasten his glad advent, and to his deputy in right His    
    Eminence leader Sayyid Khamene'i, may God extend his shadow, and to all  
    our great authorities, the sons of our Islamic nation, all Muslims,      
    followers of God's prophet, may God's prayers be upon him. We give our   
    sympathy and condolences on this day, which we mark every year to renew  
    our line, commitment, belief, allegiance, road, determination, resolve,  
    and strong will to continue along the path that the prophets,            
    messengers, and the righteous ones took, and along which millions of     
    people were martyred. Karbala is a great link in this righteous,         
    historic! al march and will remain so until the Day of judgment.         
                                                                             
                            "New American deception"                         
                                                                             
    Brothers and sisters, in the past few nights we spoke [about Ashura and  
    religion] and left politics for today. So I have a few words regarding   
    the principles. First, we should say, warn and confirm that the real     
    threat to the ummah [Muslim community worldwide] with all its homelands, 
    peoples, and governments, is the American-Israeli plan. It is the US     
    administration regardless of its president. It is the enemy that         
    occupies Palestine, violates the sanctities, and attacks the Palestinian 
    people and the peoples of the region. The Americans and Israelis are the 
    greatest usurpers of the capabilities of our ummah. Our peoples must     
    always be aware of this fact and not be deceived by the new American     
    deception.                                                               
                                                                             
    The Americans tried this year to pose as the defender of human rights,   
    peoples' freedom, and democracy in the Arab world. All of us know these  
    liars and hypocrites and know their history of supporting dictatorships. 
    All the dictatorships that collapsed enjoyed the support of the US       
    administrations politically, militarily, and on the level of the media,  
    intelligence, and all other levels. When the people rose up and the      
    United States saw its followers falling down, it disowned them. Do you   
    know, brothers and sisters, that this is the nature of the devil, as we  
    were told by God in the Holy Koran? This is what the devil does on the   
    Day of Judgment. When its followers reach a dead end, the devil disowns  
    them and claims it had nothing to do with them. It claims that it had no 
    control on them.                                                         
                                                                             
    The fact that the US administration abandons its followers, allies, and  
    tools at the first test and works only to serve its own interests and    
    minimize its losses, confirms its satanic nature. Our Arab and Islamic   
    peoples should know that the US administration is the enemy and the      
    threat. Didn't we hear President Obama a few days ago addressing the     
    Jewish lobby and Jewish organizations in America and telling them: My    
    administration provided for the security of Israel what no other         
    administration has done before? This is true. In fact, in Obama's time   
    the CIA turned from a prominent, long-standing intelligence service      
    working on major issues into an informer for Mossad and other Israeli    
    security agencies in Lebanon, spying on this or that mujahid, looking    
    for a weapons cache, a missile battery, a command centre, or the house   
    of an official. American intelligence agencies were transformed into     
    small agents to serve Israeli security and to defend Israel.             
                                                                             
    O Arabs, Muslims, peoples, political forces: Don't be deceived by the US 
    administration. It is this administration that occupies your Palestine,  
    desecrates your Jerusalem, and threatens your sacred mosque. It is the   
    one that is responsible, more than the enemy, for the detention of       
    thousands of Palestinians in prisons and for the displacement, torture,  
    and siege of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. This is the United  
    States.                                                                  
                                                                             
    On 10 Muharram we must remember this so that we do not go wrong in       
    identifying foes and friends. Only the blind-hearted make mistakes in    
    identifying who is an enemy and who is a friend. We must remember that   
    the enemy is this US administration and its tool - not ally - in the     
    region, Israel, which the administration uses as a weapon to humiliate   
    Arabs and Muslims, to defeat Arabs and Muslims, to impose America's will 
    on Arabs and Muslims, and to secure weapons markets and steal oil in     
    Arab and Muslim countries. This must not escape your minds.              
                                                                             
    Second, also in this context, all of us must know that after the failure 
    of its previous new Middle East plan, which was foiled by resistance     
    movements in Lebanon, Palestine, and Iraq and the awareness of the       
    peoples of this region and the countries of resistance and opposition,   
    headed by Iran and Syria, the US administration woke up, as the Arab     
    peoples rose up, to revive its Middle East plan but from a different     
    gateway this time, the gateway of sedition, domestic conflict, sectarian 
    and denominational strife, and tribal, national, ethnical, and country   
    conflicts, as this was the only remaining option for the United States   
    and Israel to reproduce their control on the region. We all must be      
    alert to this.                                                           
                                                                             
    In this regard, we have stressed and continue to stress the need to      
    avoid any sectarian, denominational [conflict], or inciting talk,        
    because it serves Israel, the United States, and the enemies of this     
    ummah, and does not serve this ummah. We all must respect each others    
    sanctities. And here I underline the fatwa of His Eminence Khamene'i,    
    may God extend his shadow, that all sanctities and symbols must be       
    respected regardless of their sects or denominations.                    
                                                                             
                           "Judaization" of Jerusalem                        
                                                                             
    Third, in this context we come to Jerusalem, Palestine, the central      
    issue and the core of the conflict in this region. On this day, we must  
    warn against the ongoing Judaization. We are not talking about a         
    Judaization plan; there is actual Judaization on the ground. Steps are   
    taken everyday to fully Judaize Jerusalem. Yesterday they demolished     
    houses in east Jerusalem. Everyday, they make decisions to build         
    thousands of settlement units. Today parts of Al-Aqsa Mosque are         
    threatened with demolition as a result of renovation work.               
                                                                             
    We fear and must fear that while the Arab peoples are busy with their    
    domestic problems, Israel will take advantage of this opportunity and    
    strike a deadly blow on Jerusalem, though this will be the most idiotic  
    act Israel would ever commit since the establishment of this usurping    
    entity. But people must be aware, present, and alert, because there is   
    such a threat to these holy places.                                      
                                                                             
    Palestine must remain the first central cause regardless of how          
    difficult internal issues become or how severe disputes and conflicts in 
    any country are. This is what we believe in and what we work for.        
                                                                             
                                 Arab uprisings                              
                                                                             
    Fourth, with regard to the options of the Arab peoples, we wager on the  
    awareness and options of these peoples. Today in Tunisia the people      
    prevailed over the tyrant and held elections. It is hoped that the       
    Islamic and national forces will meet the hopes and aspirations of the   
    honourable and dear Tunisian people. In Libya, the people prevailed over 
    the tyrant. The political forces there have the responsibility of        
    fulfilling the ambitions of the Libyan people, who offered thousands of  
    martyrs.                                                                 
                                                                             
    In Yemen, the challenge is still great and ongoing, with some parties    
    trying to tear the country apart and bring back the climate of sectarian 
    strife to eliminate the revolution, its goals, and aspirations, which    
    requires great awareness.                                                
                                                                             
    In Bahrain, the people are still continuing their peaceful movement      
    despite all the suppression, deceit, and hypocrisy, and they insist on   
    achieving their legitimate national goals.                               
                                                                             
    In Egypt, there are great changes that have shaken Israel, with Ehud     
    Baraq expressing concern. Everyone looks to Egypt with hope because any  
    real change in Egypt in the interest of the ummah and Palestine will     
    change Israel's strategic environment in the region, will limit Israel's 
    options in the region, and will place Israel in the face of a historical 
    and existential crisis.                                                  
                                                                             
    This is the great challenge for the Egyptian political forces that will  
    win the elections and form the new government in Egypt: The challenge of 
    Palestine, Jerusalem, Gaza, the Camp David agreement, and the position   
    on this Israeli entity. Our hope and wager is that our Arab peoples will 
    not be deceived by US hypocrisy. When they overcome their domestic       
    ordeals, they will return to their natural position, where the forces    
    and peoples of this nation will get together to address this central     
    issue.                                                                   
                                                                             
                               "US loss in Iraq"                             
                                                                             
    These Americans, who failed and continue to fail - and here I move on to 
    Iraq, and after that I will discuss Syria and finally Lebanon. In Iraq,  
    The US withdrawal from Iraq is expected to be completed within a few     
    days. There is a US loss in Iraq, a real loss. The Americans did not     
    come to Iraq to leave. Their goal and aspiration was to remain in Iraq   
    and control it and to establish fortified military bases legally in the  
    field for dozens of years. But the heroic resistance in Iraq, the        
    steadfastness of the Iraqi people and political forces, and the high     
    cost of the US occupation in Iraq forced them to opt for withdrawal.     
                                                                             
    Let me tell you, Iraqi resistance operations did not receive Arab or     
    international media coverage. Many resistance factions sent videos or    
    CDs of their clear, quality, powerful operations to Arab and             
    international satellite channels but they ignored them. A large part of  
    the operations of the Iraqi resistance forces was manipulated to serve   
    the morale of the US army and the US administration. This shows the      
    nature of the media and the satellites that control the media in the     
    Arab and Islamic world.                                                  
                                                                             
    At any rate, what happened and is still happening in Iraq is a real      
    defeat. The resistance and mujahid forces and the people of Iraq, who    
    made huge sacrifices, must celebrate this major victory. Even if there   
    are observations about the ends, the overall assessment is that the      
    Iraqi people and resistance scored a great historic victory. It must be  
    highlighted and presented to all the peoples of our region.              
                                                                             
    When Israel is defeated in Lebanon and Gaza then Israel is conquered,    
    and when the US is defeated in Iraq, this means that the US is           
    conquered. It can be defeated in any other country as it was in Iraq.    
    But the Americans want to hide this defeat using smokescreens, events,   
    and deception. In this context, what is happening in the region - Syria, 
    the threat to Iran, the story of the Saudi ambassador in Washington, and 
    all that is happening in the region - aims to distract the peoples of    
    the region so that they do not see with their eyes and awareness the     
    defeat of the US army, which has depicted itself as the only great power 
    in the world, but was defeated by the youths and mujahidin of Iraq.      
                                                                             
    Unfortunately, I say that the Americans have succeeded a great deal.     
    Watch the Arab and international satellite channels. Where is the news   
    of the withdrawal from Iraq? Where are the pictures of the departing     
    tanks and soldiers? I read in the newspapers yesterday that there        
    remains 9,000 or 1,900 soldiers in Iraq - sorry I forget the exact       
    number. How did the 150,000 soldiers leave Iraq? No-one saw them or felt 
    them. So they succeeded in this. The first news item in satellite news   
    channels is about Syria, the second is about Egypt, the third is about   
    Libya, the fourth is about Tunisia, the fifth is about Yemen, and the    
    sixth is about I do not know what. If any time is left, they mention the 
    US withdrawal from Iraq at the end of the newscasts. This is             
    intentional.                                                             
                                                                             
    The resistance and jihadist forces in the Arab and Islamic world,        
    especially in Iraq, as well as the Iraqi people, the Arab media, and all 
    the sincere media have the responsibility of highlighting this defeat.   
                                                                             
    On the 10th of Muharram, we once again bless a historic event in which   
    blood prevailed over the sword. The Iraqi people, who fought using only  
    machine-guns, RPG's, explosive charges, and Katyusha rockets at best,    
    defeated the most powerful army in the world. If the Israeli army is the 
    most powerful army in the region, the US army is the most powerful army  
    in the world. It was defeated in a few years. It was defeated through    
    blood, jihad, resistance, determination, and resolve.                    
                                                                             
    The most important thing today is to pay attention to what comes after   
    the US withdrawal from Iraq, to America's devilish acts and the sedition 
    project on which it works in the entire region. This also depends on our 
    Iraqi brothers, on their awareness, dialogue, and understanding, on      
    their bearing with one another and concern about their country and       
    unity.                                                                   
                                                                             
                         "Dialogue and peace" in Syria                       
                                                                             
    Now we come to Syria. Our position has been clear from the first days.   
    We are supporting reform in Syria, and we stand by a regime that         
    resisted and opposed [Israel] and supported the resistance movements. We 
    say yes to tackling all the causes and phenomena of corruption or        
    defect. Yes to all reforms, which the Syrian leadership has actually     
    accepted and which the Syrian people call for.                           
                                                                             
    However, there are those in Syria who do not want reforms, security,     
    stability, civil peace, or dialogue, but there are those who want to     
    destroy Syria, make up for their defeat in Iraq, considering Syria has   
    contributed to inflicting this defeat on the Americans in Iraq, and make 
    up for their very possible big and strategic defeat, for I still cannot  
    say 100 per cent, in Egypt, to change the situation in Egypt. In whose   
    interest is this? Is it in the interest of Palestine? Is the change that 
    they are calling for in Syria in the interest of the Palestinian people? 
    Is it in the interest of Jerusalem or the nation? No, it is not.         
                                                                             
    At any rate, one cannot conceal anything without this appearing in the   
    slips of his tongue and showing on his face. The so-called Syrian        
    National Council, which was established in Istanbul and which some       
    Western and Arab states consider as a legitimate representative of or a  
    legitimate interlocutor in the name of the Syrian people, has a head,    
    who is a university professor, whose name is Burhan Ghalyun. Two or      
    three days ago he said that if we change the regime and assume power in  
    Syria, we will sever our relations with Iran - we can understand this -  
    and with the resistance movements in Lebanon and Palestine. He named     
    Hezbollah and Hamas. Who are these credentials for? They are for the     
    Americans and the Israelis.                                              
                                                                             
    When Ghalyun, the professor, was asked what he will do regarding the     
    Golan Heights, he said we will check with the international community to 
    see what we can do. We will negotiate with the international community.  
    After 20 or 30 years of negotiations, which led to nowhere, it became    
    clear that what these sides aspire for is to end Syria's relations with  
    resistance movements in the region, which provide strength for Syria and 
    to which Syria provides strength, and to throw themselves once again in  
    the arms of the international community for the sake of the Golan. This  
    is the alternative proposal, the alternative authority, and the          
    alternative regime.                                                      
                                                                             
    There is something worse than this, which I hesitated to talk about      
    because the brothers have two viewpoints on whether we should comment on 
    this issue or not, but I decided to comment. One of the leaders, who     
    claim to be affiliated with an Islamic organization in Syria, came out   
    to say that when we change the situation in Syria, we will cross the     
    Lebanese border and go to Lebanon to fight Hezbollah, to punish it, and  
    to undermine it. This is great! Who are these credentials for? They are  
    for the Americans and the Israelis. This is because Hezbollah is an      
    enemy of America and Israel. It has defeated Israel and laid the         
    foundation for its defeats in this region.                               
                                                                             
    This talk is intended for the Syrian people and for every Lebanese who   
    comes to tell us be patient because you are misreading the situation in  
    Syria. No, for the past [two] or three days have revealed to us that we  
    were reading the situation in a sound way. The main issue is to target   
    the resistance movements in the region.                                  
                                                                             
    What is required in Syria is not reform, addressing corruption, or       
    pluralism. What is required in Syria is a treacherous Arab regime. What  
    is required in Syria is an Arab surrender regime. What is required in    
    Syria is a regime that signs a carte blanche for America and Israel.     
    This is the truth. If there are people staging demonstrations and        
    fighting with something else in their mind, let them be aware that they  
    are being used in a scheme of this kind. It is a scheme that is contrary 
    to their ideology, religion, culture, nationalism, pan-Arabism, Syrian   
    citizenship, and true belonging.                                         
                                                                             
    In any case, these statements and positions have encouraged us to be     
    more convinced of the soundness of our position. Frankly speaking, we    
    want and call for calm, dialogue and peace in Syria and for tackling     
    things calmly. We also condemn sanctions as well as any form of sedition 
    and any form of sectarian and religious incitement. I, of course, tell   
    all those who are making threats from overseas, that armies, fleets,     
    ships, and battleships came from overseas and were destroyed off the     
    coasts of Beirut. [Applause and chants of "We are at your service, O     
    Nasrallah"]                                                              
                                                                             
                               Lebanon "slander"                             
                                                                             
    I have a couple of words to say about Lebanon. In light of all           
    developments in the region, we always insist that we should not deal     
    with Lebanon as being an isolated island. This is the main principle.    
    One should not deal with the situation in Lebanon and all that takes     
    place in Lebanon away from what takes place in the region. In fact, they 
    are deeply and strongly connected. Based on this, out of our             
    understanding of priorities, we have always insisted and still insist on 
    civil peace and on overcoming any sedition regardless of causes,         
    atmosphere of incitement, and regardless of injustice and slander.       
                                                                             
    There is much injustice and slander in Lebanon, which others outside     
    encourage. For example, one of those who were making threats, one of the 
    Syrian opposition members, appeared on an Arab satellite channel and     
    said that Hezbollah in northern Lebanon go into hospitals and detain     
    wounded Syrians. Would anyone believe this? It is, however, being said   
    rudely on Arab satellite channels and main Arab satellite channels.      
    Anything happens in this country, no matter how small it may be, they    
    say that Hezbollah is behind it. This, however, is a good sign because   
    it means that their real concern is Hezbollah, that they are preoccupied 
    with Hezbollah, and that Hezbollah sits on their chests. [Applause and   
    chants of "We are at your service, O Nasrallah"]                         
                                                                             
    Although we have nothing to do with this and we have no knowledge of     
    this, all news media hold Hezbollah responsible for what takes place,    
    and sometimes, for what does not take place. Despite this, brothers and  
    sisters, we should persevere in patience and endure. Yes, some sides     
    want to push things in Lebanon to internal strife, but we do not want    
    any form of internal strife, and we should confront it with awareness,   
    wisdom, patience, tolerance, and turning a blind eye.                    
                                                                             
    In Lebanon, we also call for tackling the government defect and for      
    reactivating the government's work. This is because this is a real       
    national need. In this context, we once again stress the importance and  
    soundness of the just demands of the Reform and Change Bloc. If the      
    government and the head of the government are serious, God willing,      
    about shouldering national responsibilities, they should tackle these    
    issues so that the government's work can proceed in a sound way.         
                                                                             
    We also call for achieving justice in the file of false witnesses, and   
    the officers who were wrongly arrested. Because those who were meant in  
    this were not the false witnesses, they did not imprison officers only,  
    but they created major political incidents in the country. Some people   
    are confused because they think that the story of false witnesses means  
    that there are four respected officers and a group of citizens who were  
    imprisoned. This is not the entire story although this is a grave        
    injustice. The false witnesses, however, caused animosity between        
    Lebanon and Syria, instigation in Lebanon, deep divisions, sectarian     
    unrest, and the unfair killing of dozens of Syrians.                     
                                                                             
    The strange thing is that some political forces and figures in Lebanon   
    create a hue and cry over kidnapped Syrians who are not kidnapped. They  
    say that they are 12 people. Three people have disappeared and they      
    search for them. Where are the 12 people? They raise this issue every    
    day and denounce it while they remain silent over the killing of dozens  
    or hundreds of Syrians in Lebanon because of false accusations and false 
    witnesses. So, this issue is not a small one and no-one should belittle  
    it. No-one should deal with it indifferently.                            
                                                                             
                                Israeli "threat"                             
                                                                             
    The constant threat is Israel, whether through its spies, the            
    collaborators of Israel or the collaborators of the CIA [Preceding       
    acronyms in English], taking into consideration that it becomes clear    
    day by day that the CIA spies for Israel, or through espionage           
    equipment, which the resistance, the army, and competent security        
    agencies uncover gradually. This is in addition to Israeli violations    
    and attacks.                                                             
                                                                             
    We do not know what Israel is planning for Lebanon. In this context, we  
    also stress the trinity of Lebanon's impregnability, strength, and       
    dignity; namely, the army, the people, and the resistance. These are the 
    elements of power, which we adhere to.                                   
                                                                             
    As I said last night, on the 10th of Ashura, I would like to convey a    
    message, which is not new, but it is clear, decisive, and final, to all  
    those who hatch plots, pin hopes, wait for changes, or this or that.     
    This resistance in Lebanon, including its weapon, formations, mujahidin, 
    mind, culture, and presence, God willing, will survive and continue. All 
    your conspiracies, collusion, and psychological, media, political, and   
    intelligence warfare will not get it. We will adhere to our resistance   
    and to the weapons of the resistance. On the 10th of Ashura, I will tell 
    you more than this.                                                      
                                                                             
    Day by day, we increase in number, our training improves and becomes     
    better, we become more reassured about the future, and we will have more 
    weapons. If anyone wagers that our weapons will become rusty, we will    
    replace them with new weapons and we will also renew everything.         
    [Applause and chants of "We are at your service, O Nasrallah"]           
                                                                             
    Regarding the issue of weapons, there is a real fallacy. Some say that   
    the weapons of the resistance are behind chaos, disturbances, or         
    instability in Lebanon. Just look at this deception! Deception is the    
    work of Satan. What are the weapons that create problems in Lebanon?     
    Bear with me for a few minutes more. I know that you bear with me, but I 
    sympathize with you. [Applause and chants of "We are at your service, O  
    Nasrallah"] What are the weapons that cause a civil war and sedition and 
    which lead to killing, thefts and problems? We are all Lebanese and we   
    know this. These weapons are the Kalashnikov, M-16, the pistol, PKC,     
    RPG, or a hand grenade [All preceding acronyms in English], right. All   
    Lebanese have these weapons.                                             
                                                                             
    Have you ever seen a Zilzal missile fired in a civil war or a security   
    problem in Lebanon, for example, Ra'd or Khaybar missiles, rocket        
    launchers, or missiles of those for Haifa and what is after Haifa and    
    what is beyond Haifa? No, not at all!                                    
                                                                             
    The weapons that are used in any problem in any area in the country are  
    the Kalashnikov, the RPG, PKC, and the hand grenade, considering that    
    all Lebanese have these weapons. The parties have these weapons, and     
    no-one should claim that he does not have weapons, for everyone has      
    these kinds of weapons. The families, tribes, and individuals also have  
    such weapons. These are the weapons that cause problems inside Lebanon,  
    not the weapons of the resistance.                                       
                                                                             
    Whoever wants to achieve domestic security should see how we should      
    solve the problem of such weapons, how to control them, and how to       
    organize them. However, anyone who wants to remove or thinks of removing 
    the Zilzal missile, the long-range missiles, missile launchers, or the   
    capabilities of naval or air defence, is the one who wants to render a   
    great service to Israel. In other words, what Israel failed to do        
    throughout 33 days [of war], backed by the whole world, the technology   
    of the world, satellites, air force, reconnaissance planes, and the most 
    sophisticated air force, some want to achieve through dialogue,          
    political talk, or through the media. I tell you that this will not be   
    achieved and will not happen.                                            
                                                                             
    Therefore, on the 10th of Ashura, the day of the difficult, decisive,    
    and historical choices, I conclude in the same way, I and you do on      
    every 10th of Ashura, by telling the whole world that we, in Lebanon,    
    have been holding the reins of power since 1982. We have not waited for  
    the international community, the Arab League, the Organization of        
    Islamic Conference [as received], or anyone in this world with our will, 
    determination, youth, men, women, and modest capabilities. We have       
    resisted, fought, offered martyrs, and restored our land, freed our      
    prisoners, and restored our dignity.                                     
                                                                             
    With our resistance, we will protect our land, dignity, honour, and      
    country from any harm from anyone in this world. [Applause and chants of 
    "We are at your service, O Nasrallah"] Nothing will prevent us from      
    doing this duty and assuming this responsibility, including dangers,     
    threats, intimidation, facts, or changes.                                
                                                                             
    We belong to the imam who stood on this day alone against 30,000 men.    
    Every one of us is not alone against those. We are tens of thousands in  
    Lebanese, of the prepared and trained fighters and mujahidin who are     
    ready for martyrdom. They are the ones who love Abu-Abdallah Al-Husayn,  
    peace be upon him. [Applause and chants of "We are at your service, O    
    Nasrallah"] We are a force, which the enemy still does not know, the     
    enemy will continue to know nothing about it, and will surprise every    
    enemy through its strong and creative presence in any battlefield.       
    [Applause and chants of "We are at your service, O Nasrallah"]           
                                                                             
    Therefore, on the 10th of Ashura, we say that the time of bargaining on  
    our dignity, pride, presence, honour, homeland, and holy places is over  
    regardless of the price. The circumstances have changed significantly.   
                                                                             
    Therefore, we conclude by renewing allegiance to Al-Husayn, peace be     
    upon him, and tell him: O our master and imam, in the same way you have  
    made sacrifices for your great goals and preferred to be killed along    
    with the members of your family and companions in the cause of these     
    goals, we will maintain this path, but we will also make a victory       
    inspired by your blood, thought, and culture. Our call and allegiance to 
    you will continue on the 10th of Muharram. Brothers and sisters, after   
    all were martyred, Al-Husayn was left alone. He, however, was strong,    
    firm, and bright, and made an appeal, not to the army that was facing    
    him, but to all those who have been there, throughout history and until  
    the Day of Judgment, in the backbones of men and wombs of women. His     
    appeal was "Is there anyone to help me?" [Applause and chants of "We are 
    at your service, O Nasrallah"] The answer, which will continue to come   
    through tears, blood, soul, position, thought, jihad, and ! resistance,  
    is "We are at your service, O Al-Husayn". [Chants of "We are at your     
    service, O Al-Husayn"] May God make better your bereavement, reward your 
    efforts, and forgive us and you! Peace be upon Al-Husayn, the children   
    of Al-Husayn, and the companions of Al-Husayn. God's peace, mercy, and   
    blessing be upon you all.                                                
                                                                             
    Source: Al-Manar Television, Beirut, in Arabic 0939 gmt 6 Dec 11         
                                                                             
    BBC Mon Alert ME1 MEEauosc 071211 sg                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011
</description>
    <date>2011-12-07 09:43:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/764129_pna-africa-latam-mesa-lebanese-hezbollah-chief-raps-usa.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>765677</id>
    <title>IRAN/US/SYRIA/IRAQ - USA said ready to respond strongly to any attack
	on its embassy in Baghdad
</title>
    <description>    USA said ready to respond strongly to any attack on its embassy in       
    Baghdad                                                                  
                                                                             
    Text of report by Husayn Ali Dawud in Baghdad entitled "Washington to    
    respond strongly to any attack on its embassy in Iraq" by London-based   
    newspaper Al-Hayat website on 6 December                                 
                                                                             
    The United States has expressed concerns that its embassy in Baghdad may 
    face an armed attack after the withdrawal of its forces by the end of    
    this month, stressing that it will "respond strongly" to any attack by   
    armed men affiliated to Iran, while other sources said that Tehran has   
    shown resentment at the way with which the Iraqi Government dealt with   
    Washington concerning the issue of keeping US trainers.                  
                                                                             
    US Vice President Joe Biden last week held talks with US officials that  
    focused on reaffirming the security alliance between the two countries,  
    and stressed that the withdrawal would open the way for new cooperation  
    in various fields.                                                       
                                                                             
    Major General Jeffery Buchanan, the spokesman for the US Army in Iraq ,  
    told Al-Hyah: "We have real concerns about the security of our embassy   
    after the withdrawal of our forces from Iraq," pointing out that the     
    most prominent of these concerns is "from some Shi'i militias such as    
    Asa'ib Ahl al-Haqq and Hizballah." He said that "these militias had      
    carried out armed actions against the US soldiers and the embassy, and   
    any attack on the embassy would be considered an insult to the Iraqi     
    sovereignty and would harm the diplomatic interests, but we are          
    confident in the ability of the Iraqi security forces to confront any    
    aggression, and the embassy's guards would strongly respond to any       
    attack."                                                                 
                                                                             
    Secret talks are taking place between the Iraqi and US sides to decide   
    the number of guards and trainers who would be entrusted with training   
    and supporting the Iraqi security forces.                                
                                                                             
    Ali al-Shallah, member of the State of Law Coalition, told Al-Hayat that 
    "Iraq will implement all the international agreements related to         
    arranging the affairs of the embassies, the number of staffers, and      
    their guards." He pointed out that "the number of guards of the US       
    Embassy will not be extraordinary." He denied the news that spoke about  
    the presence of 15,000 US soldiers to protect it, and pointed out that   
    "the Iraqi security forces will carry out their tasks at the Green Zone  
    as the case with other foreign embassies operating in Iraq."             
                                                                             
    The US Embassy, which is the largest US embassy in the world, is located 
    in the fortified Green Zone, which also includes government offices and  
    parliament, the British Embassy and a number of other embassies, state   
    enterprises, and foreign establishments.                                 
                                                                             
    The US Army is continuing its withdrawal from Iraq. Yesterday, the       
    withdrawal began yesterday from the Iku Base in the city of              
    Al-Diwaniyah, which is one of the largest bases in southern Iraq, and    
    has been the frequent target of rocket attacks.                          
                                                                             
    Muhammad al-Askari, spokesman for the Defence Ministry, said the day     
    before yesterday that only about 10,500 US soldiers are still in Iraq    
    and are present in five positions in the country.                        
                                                                             
    Meanwhile, a ranking government's source who asked that his name not be  
    mentioned told Al-Hayat that "Iran has expressed its strong resentment   
    at the visit by Vice President Biden to Iraq to hold talks with Iraqi    
    officials that dealt with the nature of relations between the two        
    countries in the future." The source pointed out that "keeping US        
    trainers in Iraq leads to the resentment of Tehran, which is pressuring  
    for not keeping any US soldier in the country." The source expected that 
    "the latest Iraqi stance towards the Syrian crisis and the announcement  
    by the government of its readiness to receive the Syrian opposition have 
    caused an argument among the Iranians."                                  
                                                                             
    Source: Al-Hayat website, London, in Arabic 6 Dec 11                     
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEEauosc 061211 sm                                           

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011
</description>
    <date>2011-12-06 17:18:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/765677_iran-us-syria-iraq-usa-said-ready-to-respond-strongly-to-any.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>769085</id>
    <title>UNITED KINGDOM/EUROPE-President Says UK Falkland Stance 'Stupidity'
</title>
    <description>   President Says UK Falkland Stance 'Stupidity'
   Report by Ernesto Azarkevich from Posadas: "For Cristina, the English
   Position on Malvinas is a 'Stupidity'" - Clarin.com
   Friday June 17, 2011 21:31:47 GMT
   Cristina Fernandez said that she was responding in her character as the
   "president of all" (Argentines) and she categorized the British prime
   minister's remarks as being "arrogant, mediocre, and almost stupid." She
   also described the United Kingdom as "a clumsy colonial power in a state
   of decline."

   "We are going to continue claiming sovereignty (of the Malvinas) and
   calling for dialogue in the United Nations and in all international
   forums. We are going to recover them (the islands) by acting legally and
   peacefully," she declared in a heated tone. "We are going to continue tire
   lessly to claim sovereignty and to call on them to meet us for talks," she
   added.

   The president arrived in Misiones on board the Tango 01 presidential
   aircraft precisely at 1245 and took part in a videoconference with San
   Juan Governor Jose Luis Gioja to inaugurate a technical school; and also
   with Ministry of Industry Debora Giorgi, who was in the Misiones Province
   city of Eldorado, where the Brazilian firm Dass expanded its shoe assembly
   plant.

   Cristina Fernandez's visit -- the eighth during her presidency -- came
   just 10 days before the provincial elections and was a sign of the
   administration's obvious support for the current Misiones governor,
   Kirchnerite Maurice Closs, who is running for reelection.

   The excuse for her trip was the opening of a musical theater in the
   Knowledge Center in Posadas. There she heard Piazzolla's Libertango and
   spoke with dancer Inaki Urlezaga, who appeared at the opening performance
   in the theater.

   Very early in the morning the police assigned 800 agents to the security
   operation due to strong rumors about clashes between supporters of the
   mayor of Posadas, Orlando Franco, and of his chief rival, the current
   (provincial) minister of social development, Joaquin Losada. Both are
   running with the pro-government Renewal Front, but with different
   factions.

   From the podium, during his speech Governor Closs called on his supporters
   "to remain calm during this final phase of the campaign; we need to go to
   each neighborhood eight times, but we must always remain peaceful as we do
   so." This exhortation came after a Renewal Front supporter was killed in a
   knife fight at a political rally on 25 May.

   The president was accompanied by just a few officials and she remained in
   Posadas for an hour and a half. Dressed in black, she delivered netbooks
   to students, title deeds to small farmers, and 35 million pesos
   ($8,551,184.11 USD) to subsidize the price of yerba mate p roduced by
   small growers in the province.

   She devoted one paragraph of her speech to the media, saying: "I do not
   want to cry today so that they will not label me 'the weeping woman...' "I
   am not going to give them that pleasure."

   The federal government has also pledged to disburse 180 million pesos
   ($43,977,518.19 USD) for a new drinking water treatment plant and a
   drinking water system for the city of Puerto Iguazu, a city that is a
   major tourist attraction.

   (Description of Source: Buenos Aires Clarin.com in Spanish -- Online
   version of highest-circulation, tabloid-format daily owned by the Clarin
   media group; generally critical of government; URL: http://www.clarin.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.
</description>
    <date>2011-06-19 12:36:04</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-16 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/769085_united-kingdom-europe-president-says-uk-falkland-stance.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>786297</id>
    <title>BBC Monitoring Alert - INDIA
</title>
    <description>    India: Minister says train attack "needle of suspicion" points to        
    Maoists                                                                  
                                                                             
    Text of report published by Indian news agency PTI                       
                                                                             
    New Delhi/Kolkata: The Centre on Monday said the needle of suspicion in  
    the Jnaneswari Express disaster killing 148 people pointed to Maoists,   
    as the West Bengal government ruled out a CBI probe in a snub to Railway 
    Minister Mamata Banerjee.                                                
                                                                             
    "The needle of suspicion points to Maoists or frontal organisations of   
    CPI Maoists," Chidambaram said in New Delhi during his monthly media     
    briefing, taking a line different from Banerjee who said a "political    
    conspiracy" by the state government ahead of the civic polls was behind  
    the derailment.                                                          
                                                                             
    "However, the identity of the culprit can be established only in the     
    investigations," he said.                                                
                                                                             
    The Left-ruled government rejecting Trinamool Congress leader's demand   
    said the Union Home ministry had sent a letter Sunday to Chief Secretary 
    Ardhendu Sen seeking concurrence of the state government for a Central   
    Bureau of Investigation (CBI) probe into the derailment of the           
    Howrah-Kurla express train in eastern India's West Midnapore district in 
    the wee hours of 28 May.                                                 
                                                                             
    "The CID probe has progressed a great deal and the state government does 
    not feel that a parallel inquiry is necessary," Home Secretary Samar     
    Ghosh told reporters in Kolkata when asked about the demand for a CBI    
    inquiry.                                                                 
                                                                             
    Chidambaram said Railway Ministry has suggested that there should be a   
    CBI inquiry. "We have asked for West Bengal government's views."         
                                                                             
    Asked about reports of blast on the track, Chidambaram said, "I have     
    been told by the West Bengal government and other police officials who   
    visited the site that so far there is no trace of any explosives. The    
    West Bengal government is on record saying panrole clips were removed    
    and track was cut.                                                       
                                                                             
    That is also prima facie established. Only further investigations will   
    bring out the truth."                                                    
                                                                             
    Alleging that there was a 'political conspiracy' behind the disaster in  
    a no-holds barred fight with the Communist Party of India-Marxist on who 
    was to blame, the Railway minister on 29 May demanded a CBI              
    investigation.                                                           
                                                                             
    She had said the Railways had requested the Union Home Ministry for a    
    CBI probe since the disaster occurred in 'jangalmahal' where joint       
    operations were on.                                                      
                                                                             
    Charges of murder and attempt to murder and sabotage have meanwhile been 
    included in the FIR filed by the Railways in connection with the         
    disaster.                                                                
                                                                             
    The police have been asked to add 'criminal conspiracy,' 'murder,' and   
    'attempt to murder' charges in the FIR, Additional DGP (Railways) Dilip  
    Mitra told PTI.                                                          
                                                                             
    "We have found that the ingredients of the driver's account in the FIR   
    were not enough to put up a strong case. So I visited the spot myself    
    and found that the incident prima facie appeared to be an act of         
    sabotage," he said.                                                      
                                                                             
    Superintendent of the Jhargram Railway Police Shankar Chakraborty had    
    said on Saturday the Jnaneswari Express driver B K Das filed the         
    complaint against 'unidentified miscreants' under sections 150 and 151   
    of the Railway Act.                                                      
                                                                             
    Ghosh when asked why a Criminal Investigation Department (CID) inquiry   
    was ordered said generally the Commissioner of Railway Safety inquired   
    into railway accidents. But since there was criminal involvement and     
    sabotage in the disaster, the CID was investigating it.                  
                                                                             
    Asked how long the CID inquiry would take, he said, "it can't be said    
    immediately."                                                            
                                                                             
    Source: PTI news agency, New Delhi, in English 1600gmt 31 May 10         
                                                                             
    BBC Mon SA1 SAsPol a.g                                                   

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2010
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    <id>789180</id>
    <title>USA/UNITED STATES/AMERICAS
</title>
    <description>-------------------- Wednesday June 2, 2010 T04:02:52Z --------------------
Title: Report by correspondent Patricia Campos Mello in Washington: "US Denial Irritates Itamaraty" -- For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
Journal: O Estado de Sao Paulo digital
Text:
"It caused surprise to hear statements from representatives of the third or fourth tier of the US Government that cast doubt on what the most senior US official said, in a letter, to the president of another country," a senior official of the Brazilian Government told O Estado de Sao Paulo.On Friday (28 May), US officials set up an interview to clarify their position on the agreement worked out by Brazil and Turkey with Iran on 17 May. They said the agreement was "unacceptable" and that the United States would continue to seek the imposition of sanctions against Iran in the UN Security Council.Brazil was hoping that the agreement would allow the space for more negotiations with Iran and put a hold on sanctions. The US Government has attempted a "damage limitation" exercise following the leak of a letter from Barack Obama to Lula on 20 April. In the letter, according to the Foreign Ministry, Itamaraty, the president encouraged the Brazilian leader to reach an agreement on the 
 exchange of fuel in the same mold as that proposed in October: that Iran would undertake to send 1200 kilograms of its uranium to Turkey, from where it would be sent to be enriched in Russia and France, and returned to Iran after a year in the form of fuel for a reactor for medical research. DiscrepancyBut in the interview on Friday, the Americans said the agreement reached by the Brazilians was outdated, because the Iranians had  continued to enrich uranium since October. "The time has invalidated the original proposal and this was not taken into account in the Tehran Declaration," said the US official.The Foreign Ministry points out that none of this was said in the letter, which mentioned the same 1,200 kilograms of uranium.The channels of communication between the two countries have been severely affected. Another statement that has angered the Brazilian Government was that the letter sent by Obama to President Lula was not "instructions" for negotiating. The Americans s
 aid that they never "asked the Brazilians to stop negotiating on behalf of the Americans.""It's offensive to think that the Brazilian Government would consider a letter from a foreign head of state as 'instructions' on how Brazil should act in its foreign relations. But the letter of President Obama is very clear that the agreement on the exchange of uranium would be a way to build trust and an advance in dealing with the Iranian nuclear issue," said the senior Brazilian official.The Brazilian Government is unclear whether the Americans were having regrets over the letter, or if there are major splits within the US Government over the Iranian issue. For them, internal political issues could be taking preference over the orientation of foreign policy. LobbiesSecretary of State Hillary Clinton, who is more hard-line towards Iran, would also have been pressured by lobbies within the country which are important for raising funds for the legislative elections in October in the Un
 ited States. With this, the country would have abandoned any more diplomatic and tactful approach in relation to the Iranian issue.The official also said that Foreign Minister Celso Amorim never believed that the agreement for the exchange of fuel would resolve all the problems with regard to Iran. "But Celso Amorim reaffirmed that the Tehran Declaration is a gateway to building trust and permitting the discussion of issues of concern to both sides." He stated that the letter from Obama was along the same lines.Editorial cartoon shows a smiling Barack Obama "accidentally" loosing attack-dog Hillary Clinton at Brazilian President Lula da Silva (Source: O Dia)(Description of Source: Sao Paulo O Estado de S. Paulo digital in Portuguese -- Website of conservative, influential daily, critical of the government; URL: http://www.estadao.com.br)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright h
 older. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalLeaderProliferation,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Sao Paulo
Geographic Code: BRA,IRN,USA
Geographic Name: Brazil,Iran,United States,Americas,Middle East,South Americas,North Americas,MEDITERRANEAN,NORTH AMERICA,WESTERN ASIA,BRAZIL,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,EUROPE,SOUTH AMERICA,MIDDLE EAST,GULF STATES,IRAN,LATIN AMERICAIP
Region: Americas,Middle East






-------------------- Wednesday June 2, 2010 T00:45:20Z --------------------
Title: CNA: Today In History
Journal: Central News Agency
Text:
Taipei, June 2 (CNA) -- Today is Wednesday, June 2, or the 20th day of the sixth month of the Year of the Tiger according to the lunar calendar. Following is a list of important events that have occurred on this date in the past: 1886: Grover Stephen Cleveland, the 22nd and 24th president of the United States, marries Francis Folsom in the White House. He was known as an honest independent president opposed to corruption and the "spoils" system.1896: Italian engineer and inventor Guglielmo Marconi patents in London his wireless telegraph apparatus, a device that transmits spoken messages over long distances without the aid of wires or cables. He shared the 1909 Nobel Prize in physics after transmitting long-wave radio signals across the Atlantic Ocean in 1901.1904: Johnny Weissmuller, American and Olympic swimming champion, is born. He later turned to acting, playing Tarzan in many films.1922: Hsu Shih-chang resigns as president of the Beijing government.1927: Wang Kuo-wei, a
  master in the study of Chinese literary classics, commits suicide at the age of 50 by jumping into Kunming Lake in the Yi-ho Garden in Beijing. The garden was built by Empress Dowager Tsu Hsi at the end of the Ching dynasty.1942: Chinese Foreign Minister T.V. Soong and U.S. Secretary of State Cordell Hull sign the Sino-American Lend-Lease Agreement in Washington.1953: The Archbishop of Canterbury at London's Westminster Abbey lowers the crown of St. Edward onto the head of Princess Elizabeth Alexandra Mary, making her Queen Elizabeth II of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The ceremony marks the first televised coronation.1964: The Palestine Liberation Organization is formed in Jerusalem.1966: Surveyor I, a U.S. automated spacecraft, lands in the southwest sector of the moon's Oceanus Procellanum and begins sending back the first close-up pictures of the moon's surface.1969: The Australian aircraft carrier Melbourne collides with the U.S. destroyer Frank E. Evans in the S
 outh China Sea, killing 74 American sailors.1973: A three-nation invitational basketball tournament opens in Taipei.1974: China Airlines starts all-cargo services to the United States' West Coast.1974: Jig Singhi Wangchuk, 18, is crowned king of Bhutan, becoming the youngest monarch in the world.1976: Dr. Adnan Khasoggi, chairman of the Saudi Arabian Triad Holding Corporation, and a party of 20 members arrive in Taipei to explore investment possibilities.1979: Pope John Paul II, the first non-Italian to be elected pope in 456 years, sets foot again on the soil of his native Poland to an emotional welcome. The pope's visit marks a major opening-up in the relationship between the Roman Catholic church and the countries of the Communist bloc.1983: The ROC Executive Yuan approves a revision to raise by tenfold the compensation for "wrongful detentions and executions." 1984: ROC President Chiang Ching-kuo appoints Chiu Chuang-huan, former vice premier, as commissioner of the Taiw
 an Provincial Assembly and, concurrently, as governor of Taiwan Province.1985: English football clubs are banned indefinitely from playing in Europe because of hooliganism by English fans abroad.1985: Hu Nai-yen, an ROC violinist residing in the United States, wins an international music contest held in Belgium.1990: British actor Sir Rex Harrison dies at the age of 82. He is best remembered for his role as Professor Henry Higgins in the musical "My Fair Lady," a part that he played both on Broadway and on the London stage as well as in the 1964 film version, for which he won a Tony and also an Academy Award.1992: Representatives from 185 nations take part in the world's largest environmental summit in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.1999: Women in Japan finally win the right to use the birth control pill.2000: Academia Sinica President Lee Yuan-tseh accepts President Chen Shui-bian's appointment to head a supra-party task force on cross-Taiwan Strait relations.2000: Kaohsiung Mayor 
 Hsieh Chang-ting is the sole candidate in the running for Democratic Progressive Party chairman, as the official registration deadline ends today.2001: The Chinese-Taipei Olympic Committee (CTOC) and the Mongolian Olympic Committee sign a sports cooperation and exchange agreement in Taipei.Confucius' lesson of the day: "Pleasure in dissipation, in extravagance, in mere conviviality, are injurious."(Description of Source: Taipei Central News Agency in English -- "Central News Agency (CNA)," Taiwan's major state-run press agency; generally favors ruling administration in its coverage of domestic and international affairs; URL: http://www.cna.com.tw)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalLeaderInternational PoliticalInternational Economic,SOCIAL ISSUES,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT,PATENTS AND TRADEMARKS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Taipei
Geographic Code: AUS,BEL,BTN,BRA,CHN,IRL,JPN,MNG,POL,SAU,TWN,USA
Geographic Name: Australia,Belgium,Bhutan,Brazil,China,Ireland,Japan,Mongolia,Poland,Saudi Arabia,Taiwan,United States,Oceania,Europe,Asia,Americas,Middle East,North Europe,South Asia,East Asia,South Americas,North Americas,TAIWAN,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIAIP
Region: Oceania,Europe,Asia,Americas,Middle East






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T22:31:57Z --------------------
Title: For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
Journal: Brazil -- OSC Summary
Text:
- Fabio Amato and Sofia Fernandes report in Sao Paulo Folha de Sao Paulo that the Foreign Ministry expressed "shock and consternation" at the 31 May attack by Israeli commandos on a flotilla said to be carrying humanitarian aid for Gaza. "We could not be more shocked," said Foreign Minister Celso Amorim. "These were peaceful people who posed no threat and who sought to perform a humanitarian action," Amorim stated, adding that the incident was "extremely serious." Itamaraty Palace summoned Israeli Ambassador to Brazil Giora Becher to explain the attack. A statement from the Israeli Embassy said that Becher reinforced to the Foreign Ministry that the purported humanitarian mission was what he called a provocation by "the illegal and terrorist HAMAS group in Gaza." The Israeli diplomat maintained that the commandos were attacked first and denied suggestions of a humanitarian crisis in the area. A statement from Itamaraty said that "there is no justification for military interve
 ntion against a peaceful convoy that is strictly humanitarian in nature." The Foreign Ministry noted that the fact the incident occurred in international waters exacerbates the gravity of the situation. (Sao Paulo Folha de Sao Paulo Online in Portuguese -- Website of generally critical of the government, top-circulation newspaper; URL:http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp ) Israeli Ambassador Defends Military Action- In a guest article appearing in Sao Paulo Folha de Sao Paulo, Israeli Ambassador to Brazil Giora Becher asserts that "the attack against the Israeli soldiers was premeditated. The weapons used were prepared in advance." The ambassador argues that "militants" aboard one of the ships in the flotilla "attacked the (Israeli) soldiers with weapons such as pistols, knives, and clubs, wounding them and leaving two soldiers in serious condition". He adds that individuals on the ships greeted the Israeli forces with cries of "intifada!" "It mu
 st be underscored," Ambassador Becher writes, "that the group organizing these vessels has an anti-Western, radical slant. Together with its legitimate humanitarian activities, it backs radical Islamic networks like HAMAS and elements of the global jihad such as Al-Qa'ida." The senior Israeli diplomat goes on to state that his country's response "is based on international maritime law." "Under the law," he contends, "Israel has the right to protect the lives of its civilians against HAMAS attacks and to take measures to defend itself - including through a maritime blockade to deter the rearming of HAMAS." Columnist:  Israel Used 'Disproportionate Force'- Sao Paulo Folha de Sao Paulo columnist Clovis Rossi asserts that in the "permanent war between HAMAS and Israel", each side remains "absolutely unyielding in their positions, which distilled mean the extermination of the other. Obviously, there cannot be an agreement. It is equally obvious that the weaker side, HAMAS, gets m
 ost of the victims - as was the case yesterday in the episode of the attack by Israel against the so-called peace flotilla. As was the case in the invasion of the Gaza Strip a year and a half ago." Rossi adds:  "After each violent episode comes the traditional sequence of accusations and counteraccusations. Israel says the occupants of the vessels were 'terrorists' - including some with links to Al Qa'ida. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan accuses Israel of 'state terrorism' (a Turkish NGO organized the flotilla). Israel, in both the invasion of Gaza and in handling the ships, used disproportionate force - evidenced by the huge difference between the number of victims amo ng residents of Gaza and Israeli soldiers, and between the militants in the flotilla and Israeli soldiers." The columnist goes on to state that "Israel, however, uses its force because it is superior to that of any Arab country and also (or mainly) because it knows that the only consequence is increasing
 ly intense international condemnation, which is more than compensated for by increasingly strong internal cohesion. Most Israelis have categorically abandoned any type of concern with their Palestinian neighbors." Rossi asserts:  "They are staunch, intransigent wills; and all the international community can muster is to produce resolutions, statements, and meetings." Columnist:  Israeli Attack Leaves Washington 'With No Rhetoric' in Push for Iran Sanctions--Sao Paulo Folha de Sao Paulo columnist Eliane Cantanhede writes:  "The IAEA report shows that there is much more enriched uranium in Iran than the futile philosophy of Ahmadinezhad acknowledges and than the 1,200 kilograms he is willing to transfer to Turkey. And now, in the middle of a general crisis of confidence, comes Israel with an insane act:  turning the entire world against it, with the possible exception of BFF the United States. As if it weren't not enough for Israel to have the atomic bomb and launch offensives
  against Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Palestinian women and children, the country now attacks ships carrying militant pacifists and humanitarian aid for Gaza's civilian population." Cantanhede poses the rhetorical question:  "Could it be that Iran has the right to enrich uranium and thus take precautions against Israeli radicals? It is as if one justified the threat posed by the other, as if one fuels the madness of the other. And let the region blow up." The columnist argues that the incident "takes the focus from Iran and places it on Israel - leaving Washington and the other powers in the crossfire and with no rhetoric to impose sanctions against the Iranian regime; at least for the moment. If Israel has the Bomb and Iran doesn't, if Israel attacks foreign pacifists and Iran doesn't, if Israel doesn't listen to anyone when deciding on such actions, and Iran at least tries an agreement, how will Barack Obama and the powers demonize one and ignore the other?" Cantanhede conclu
 des:  "Mired up to its scalp in the crisis, Brazil strongly condemned the aggression against the ships and indirectly called for an appropriate reaction by the Obama administration. But at this stage, it looks like everyone is mute, blind, and deaf. No one listens to anyone else anymore; which means that reason is against the wall and emotions are on a hair-trigger. As we know, emotions are poor counselors in foreign policy and strategic placement." Editorial Condemns 'Unacceptable' Attack- The lead editorial in Sao Paulo Folha de Sao Paulo calls the Israeli attack "unacceptable" and asserts that "in the best case scenario, the Israeli Defense Forces were incompetent. In the worst (and possibly most realistic), they once again went with the show of force." Categorizing the incident alongside actions such as the December 2008 incursion into the Gaza Strip, the editors write that "yesterday's attack is counterproductive in every respect. It aggravates the Mideast radicalizatio
 n process, gives arguments to Islamic fundamentalists and leaves Israel in an even more diplomatically isolated position." The editorial concludes:  "Israel has a right to self-defense and is correct in pointing to the terrorist actions of HAMAS. But that does not justify the country proceeding on an escalade of violence and creation of faits accomplis with an eye on making a balanced peace agreement - which would imply a return to the original borders delineated in 1947, the recognition of a Palestinian state, and the sharing of Jerusalem - impossible." Editorial cartoon from Campinas Correio Popular depicts Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. (Campinas Correio Popular (Internet Version-WWW) in Portuguese - leading newspaper in Campinas (second city in Sao Paulo State) owned by the Rede Anhanguera de Comunicacao Group.) President Lula Promises Ahmadinezhad To Push Against Iran Sanctions- Sao Paulo Folha de Sao Paulo reports that Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinezhad 
 telephoned President Lula on 30 May to take stock of common efforts to avoid UN sanctions against Tehran because of its nuclear program. Lula pledged to Ahmadinezhad that he would, over the course of this week, phone the leaders of the three countries that can still reverse a US decision in favor of sanctions:  French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev, and Chinese President Hu Jintao. (OSC is translating this item as LAP20100601032004)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalLeaderProliferation,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT,INTERNATIONAL ISSUES,GOVERNMENTIP
City: 
Geographic Code: BRA,ISR,IRN,USA
Geographic Name: Brazil,Israel,Iran,United States,Americas,Middle East,South Americas,North Americas,MEDITERRANEAN,NORTH AMERICA,WESTERN ASIA,BRAZIL,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,SOUTH AMERICA,MIDDLE EAST,GULF STATES,IRAN,ISRAEL,LATIN AMERICA,PALESTINEIP
Region: Americas,Middle East






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T19:14:38Z --------------------
Title: For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
Journal: Brazil -- OSC Summary
Text:
- Patricia Campos Mello reports in the 30 May edition of Sao Paulo O Estado de Sao Paulo reports that Itamaraty Palace expressed "extreme irritation" at a 28 May background briefing in which senior State Department officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, called the 17 May uranium enrichment agreement that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan brokered with Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinezhad "unacceptable" -- even though Planalto Palace maintains that a letter President Barack Obama sent to President Lula on 20 April reportedly mirrored the accord point for point. A high-ranking Foreign Ministry official said that "it is awkward to hear statements from third or fourth-tier US government representatives which place what the highest US authority asserted - in a letter - to the president of another country." (Sao Paulo O Estado de S. Paulo digital in Portuguese -- Website of conservative, influential daily, critical of the governme
 nt; URL:http://www.estadao.com.br/ http://www.estadao.com.br ) (OSC is translating this item as LAP20100531032001) Columnist Sees Briefing as US Effort To Ease Tensions- Writing in the 29 May edition of Sao Paulo Folha de Sao Paulo, columnist Clovis Rossi - who first gained access to the entire text of the letter President Obama sent to President Lula - states that the aforementioned background briefing "left me with the distinct feeling that it was an attempt to diminish the tension mounting between Brazil and the United States." To counter what Rossi describes as the perception by Planalto that the Lula administration "was being penalized for an agreement that essentially followed the lines set by President Obama", he asserts that "the State Department officials praised the efforts undertaken by Brazil and Turkey and also made clear that the two countries have shown themselves to be 'seriously interested' in resolving the Iranian nuclear standoff. Iran, in contrast, negoti
 ated under the main intent of disrupting the momentum for the adoption of UN Security Council sanctions." Rossi notes that large part of reporters' questions during the teleconference briefing revolved around the similarity between the White House letter and the Turco-Brazilian agreement; "there were those who even asked if by criticizing the accord the United States was moving the goal line in the middle of the game," he recalls. According to the columnist, the State Department officials maintained that the letter did not spell out all the points Washington considered essential to a prospective agreement because President Lula and Prime Minister Erdogan were not negotiating on behalf of the United States. Rossi points out that the State Department had previously notified Brasilia of a critical consideration not addressed in the letter or by the agreement:  compliance by Tehran with UN resolutions requiring a suspension of the uranium-enrichment process pending a full clarif
 ication on the exact nature of the Iranian nuclear program. "Here," the columnist writes, "Brasilia, Ankara, and Washington appear to have a different perception". Rossi points out that Prime Minister Erdogan recently described the accord as a "road map" with various future "stops" for adjustment as needed. "For Washington," Rossi posits, "the Tehran document sounded like the end of the road. Unacceptable, therefore, because it does not eliminate doubts - otherwise relevant - on the part of the international community." (Sao Paulo Folha de Sao Paulo Online in Portuguese -- Website of generally critical of the government, top-circulation newspaper; URL:http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp ) (OSC is translating this item as LAP20100531032002) Amorim Rejects Crticism From Secretary of State Clinton- Antonio Gois, Janaina Lage, and Samantha Lima report in the 29 May edition of Sao Paulo Folha de Sao Paulo that Foreign Minister Celso Amorim rejected c
 riticism by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton directed at the 17 May agreement. Speaking to reporters at the Third Alliance of Civilizations Forum in Rio de Janeiro, Amorim said:  "There are a lot of people who are disappointed because it (the agreement) generated results; because their (US) expectation was that there would be no accord, that they would continue along the same lines." The foreign minister added that both Brazil and Turkey consulted with a number of countries - the United States included - while crafting the terms of the document. "We followed the script that in some way or another was offered to us, and now we hear 'all right, that doesn't apply (...)' They (the United States) can do that, because they are permanent members of the UN Security Council and are a nuclear power. We can't, because we only have moral power," Amorim said. Still, the foreign minister ruled out any significant damage in bilateral relations. UN Secretary-General Says Iran Agreement C
 ould Represent 'Start' of Solution- In an "exclusive" interview with Sao Paulo O Estado de Sao Paulo 's Roberto Simon appearing in the 30 May edition of the newspaper, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, in Rio de Janeiro for the civilizations forum, said that the 17 May agreement could conceivably represent "the start of a negotiated solution" to the Iranian nuclear standoff. At the same time, however, the senior UN diplomat made clear that by deciding to continue enriching uranium to a grade of 20%, Iran "undermines" its credibility. Secretary-General Ban also offered his view on the geo-political situations in Haiti and the Korean peninsula. (OSC is translating this item as LAP20100601032001) Editorial cartoon from 28 May edition of Sao Paulo Folha de Sao Paulo titled 'UN Secretary-General in Brazil' Columnist Evaluates Agreement in Context of New Security Strategy-Sao Paulo Folha de Sao Paulo columnist Eliane Cantanhede, writing in the 30 May edition of the newspaper, exam
 ines the recent tensions between the United States and Brazil within the framework of President Obama's new National Security Strategy. "The good news in the new US security strategy," she writes, "is that it cites Brazil more times that the previous one from George W. Bush. The bad news is that the document makes an almost mean-spirited distinction; while Russia, India, and China are called 'essential centers of influence', Brazil - the 'B' in BRIC - is lumped next to South Africa and Indonesia as 'nations of increasing influence.' A second-string team of emerging countries?" Cantanhede goes on to state:  "Obama's visit during the first half of the year - which was all but set with Hillary in Brasilia, was simply discarded. With the presidential election extremely polarized, Lula moving at 1,000 per hour, and Iran in the middle, he certainly thought it more prudent to stay put in Washington." "Clearly," the columnist asserts, "something is not going well. What is not so evi
 dent is why Brazil seems to be relishing this clash with the $14-trillion-GDP-power. There has to be a reason; it is anything but obvious." UN Investigates Minustah Patrol Following Port-au-Prince Incident- Joao Paulo Charleaux and Tiago Queiroz report in the 30 May edition of Sao Paulo O Estado de Sao Paulo that the UN is investigating whether a patrol from the Brazilian-led UN Stabilization i n Haiti (Minustah) used excessive force during a 24 May skirmish with students demonstrating on the campus of the University of Haiti. The Brazilian peacekeepers fired tear gas, rubber bullets, and live ammunition at protesters calling for the resignation of President Rene Preval and the withdrawal of the Minustah forces. (OSC is translating this item as LAP20100601032002 ) Presidential Campaign Serra Stands by Criticism of Bolivia; President Lula Rejects Charge-- Felipe Werneck, Jaqueline Farid, and Wilson Tosta report in the 29 May edition of Sao Paulo O Estado de Sao Paulo that Bra
 zilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) presidential candidate Jose Serra stood by his previous assertion that the government of Bolivian President Evo Morales was "complicit" in the smuggling of cocaine into Brazil. Speaking at a 28 May campaign rally for Senator Jarbas Vasconcelos (PSBD - Pernambuco) in Recife, Serra said that the Morales administration is "dragging its feet" when it comes to counternarcotics efforts; he also discounted criticism from the Bolivian Foreign Ministry - which in a statement called the candidate's earlier comments "irresponsible" and "political and electoral" in nature. The PSDB contender responded that the Bolivian reaction "isn't worth a three-real (r) bill." "When I join a fight, it is to win; I am not afraid of facing adversaries, and coca has powerful supporters and profiteers," he added. According to Serra, "one must act at the source" to protect Brazilian youth from what he called the "plague" of cocaine and crack. Meantime, Worker's Party 
 (PT) presidential candidate Dilma Rousseff told reporters in Santa Catarina State that the remarks by her adversary were not "statesmanlike". "Incriminating a government is different from saying that drugs come from Bolivia," she said. Rousseff had earlier accused Serra of seeking to promote the "demonization" of Bolivia. For his part, President Lula posed alongside President Morales at the Third Alliance of Civilizations Forum in Rio de Janeiro, telling reporters "we're going to pose here, we're going to make Serra jealous." President Lula greets President Morales as Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan and Argentine President Cristina Kirchner look on. (Folha, 29 May) Serra Comments Serve as Tacit Attack Against Lula Administration- In an article appearing in the 29 May edition of Sao Paulo O Estado de Sao Paulo, reporter Daniel Bramatti writes:  "Jose Serra's attack on the administration of Bolivian Evo Morales has as its indirect target the foreign and public security policies
  of the Lula administration. The first topic does not appear on most of the population's agenda, but the second one is a priority - as public opinion polls show. Security is one of the few policies where the majority of voters disapprove of the federal government, according to a poll taken by the Brazilian Public Opinion and Statistics Institute (Ibope).Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalNarcotics,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: 
Geographic Code: BRA,IRN,BOL,USA
Geographic Name: Brazil,Iran,Bolivia,United States,Americas,Middle East,South Americas,North Americas,HAITI,WESTERN ASIA,TURKEY,CARIBBEAN,NORTH AMERICA,BOLIVIA,BRAZIL,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,EUROPE,SOUTH AMERICA,MIDDLE EAST,GULF STATES,IRAN,LATIN AMERICAIP
Region: Americas,Middle East






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T19:09:35Z --------------------
Title: Report by Natasha Niebieskikwiat: "Turkish Premier Does Not Come and Unleashes Another Spat Between Macri and the Government"
Journal: Clarin.com
Text:
The visit's cancellation set off an uproar of sizeable proportions because it displays the poor local handling of conflictive situations like the relations between Armenia and Turkey and also lays bare once again the disputes between the federal government and the Buenos Aires City government.  Last night (29 May) Foreign Minister Jorge Taiana expressed regret for the cancellation of the visit through a statement in which he blamed the government of (Mayor) Mauricio Macri for its "alteration of the agenda" that the City had arranged for the visiting prime minister.  The text of the statement also mentioned Erdogan's express "displeasure."The Embassy of Turkey also confirmed the cancellation of Erdogan's visit to this newspaper.  He was to have arrived in Argentina today from Brazil, where he met with Cristina during the (UN) Alliance of Civilizations Forum.  The Turkish Embassy gave no further information. But according to the Argentine Foreign Ministry, the Turkish authoriti
 es indicated that the cancellation of the stop in Argentina was due to the fact that the Buenos Aires City government decided at the last minute to cancel "the reinauguration of the monument to Mustafa Kemal Ataturk" in the Jorge Newbery Park located at Figueroa Alcorta and Sarmiento Avenue.The City government responded to that report through its Secretary General Marcos Pena: "We oppose a monument to Ataturk as he is a troublesome figure for the Armenian community because of his role in extermination policies.  Moreover, the City never authorized a monument to Ataturk and Macri never promised to be present at such a ceremony."Macri supporters also circulated a version that was certainly attention-getting: they said that the real reason for the Erdogan cancellation was something else entirely: the truth is, they say, that the cancellation was due to pressures from the United States.  According to these sources, the Obama administration wants to lower the profile of Erdogan's
  visit to the region as a sign of its displeasure about the negotiations that Turkey and Brazil had with Iran concerning Iran's nuclear program.  Those negotiations were not approved by the United States, and that is, according to the Macri people, what led to this unexpected change in plans.  In addition, the Armenian diaspora has continued its activism against the Turkish government.  Yesterday a number of the Armenian community in Argentina's publications reported on their websites that, after they had learned of the plan to place a monument to Ataturk on Monday (31 May) in Erdogan's presence, the National Armenian Council sent letters of protest to deputies, senators, and high-level administration officials in an attempt to stop this.  They also said that on Friday, 28 May, the minister of environment and public space of the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires, Diego Santilli, had received an Armenian delegation led in principle by Archbishop Kissag Mouradian, primate (of Ar
 gentina and Chile).  The Armenian Youth Union's publication said yesterday that it was Santilli who confirmed that the monument would not be placed as planned.According to the statement that the Foreign Ministry issued yesterday, Taiana, Cristina, and Erdogan spoke by telephone yesterday and Erdogan told the president of his "displeasure about what had happened."Sources close to Macri accused the ambassador of Turkey to Argentina, Hayri Hayret Yalav, of having requested permission from the Buenos Aires Minis try of Public Space to "reinaugurate" a monument to Ataturk in a space where there had previously been an Egyptian bust.(Description of Source: Buenos Aires Clarin.com in Spanish -- Online version of highest-circulation, tabloid-format daily owned by the Clarin media group; generally critical of government; URL: http://www.clarin.com)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright 
 holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalLeader,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Buenos Aires
Geographic Code: ARG,ARM,BRA,IRN,TUR,USA
Geographic Name: Argentina,Armenia,Brazil,Iran,Turkey,United States,Americas,Eurasia,Middle East,Europe,South Americas,North Americas,Caucasus,South Europe,MEDITERRANEAN,TURKEY,NORTH AMERICA,WESTERN ASIA,ARMENIA,ARGENTINA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,EUROPE,SOUTH AMERICA,LATIN AMERICA,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Americas,Eurasia,Middle East,Europe






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T16:42:54Z --------------------
Title: Article by former Brazilian Ambassador to the United States Rubens Barbosa: "Error In Calculation"
Journal: O Estado de Sao Paulo digital
Text:
The activism of our current foreign policy seeks a place of influence going far beyond the South American context and therefore requires an additional effort on the part of Brazilian diplomacy to identify what is truly in the national interest.As President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said, the search for a leading role to project Brazil as a global political player by attempting to help resolve conflicts through negotiation presupposes an ability to evaluate and collect information. Brazil's Foreign Service fully possesses that ability.Brazil's intervention in the crisis between the United States and Iran over the suspicion that the theocratic regime in Tehran is developing a nuclear program for military purposes and not just for civilian uses was positive in that it was proposing diplomatic negotiation to overcome the existing difficulties and mistrust. But the way in which it was carried out served to prove that we still have a long learning process ahead of us before we can 
 assume the role, with maturity and credibility, of saviors of world peace.We could have practiced our good offices in the conflicts between our neighbors -- by trying, for example, to help Argentina and Uruguay settle their differences over installation of the paper and cellulose mill on the border -- or the disputes between Colombia and Venezuela that almost brought those two countries into armed conflict. In both cases, Brazil chose to stand aside, preferring instead to begin its pacifying action in the conflict between Palestinians and Israelis, in the Middle East, and in the dispute between the United States and Iran.Those decisions call into question the judgment of our formulators of foreign policy when it comes to identifying what should in fact be our interest and being able to make an objective evaluation of the information gathered by Itamaraty's efficient network.Without entering into the merits of the debate over the crisis itself, and regardless of how it works 
 out over the next few weeks, there was an obvious series of erroneous assessments by the Brazilian Government when it decided to negotiate the agreement with Iran, which Tehran is threatening to break if the sanctions are approved.The willingness of China and Russia, despite their strategic and commercial interests in Iran, to stand up to the United States and support Brazil's efforts was overestimated. The perception of President Barack Obama's indirect encouragement of Lula to negotiate with Tehran and of the American determination to move forward with the draft resolution on sanctions at the UN Security Council was also incorrect. Our diplomats ignored the internal and external pressures on the Obama administration forcing the abandonment of negotiations with Iran and Washington's predictable reaction to the meddling by new players in matters which it considers, in a monopolistic manner, to be its exclusive responsibility. President Lula appropriately asked where that was
  written, but the tough words by the US secretary of state on the day after the Tehran agreement sent a signal as to where power was located.In addition, there was an inadequate assessment of the harm that support for Iran might do to Brazil. In attempting to prevent the sanctions and involve itself in such a sensitive issue affecting the very national security of the United States -- and achieve uncertain gains in the process -- Brazil seems to have paid no attention to its losses. The risk that relations with the United States might be harmed by the Brazilian initiative was downplayed, and what prevailed was the PT 's (Workers Party's) perception that the United States is in decline that other centers of power are emerging and transforming the world into a multipolar situation. While that is true as regards decisions in the economic and political areas, where there is no possibility of the developed countries imposing their will on the emerging countries, it was an erroneo
 us assessment in its judgment that the same would be true in the case of strategic and defense matters, where the United States remains the only superpower with no decline or loss of its power.More serious was President Lula's statement that he knew that the step he took was a big gamble and that there was nothing to be gained. According to news reports, a high-ranking official also declared that the talks with Iran might compromise Brazil's intention to win a permanent seat on the UN Security Council and could be exploited by the opposition as being adventurism or a defeat. Even so, it was worth the effort.In the light of those statements, the current administration's criteria for identifying our national interest are not clear. Brazil's acceptance as a permanent member of the Security Council is one of the major priorities of our current foreign policy. If we have nothing to gain, why jeopardize the chance of obtaining a permanent seat on the body that works for internatio
 nal peace and security? Is it worth it to arouse suspicions even about the nature of our own nuclear program, as is already beginning to happen?In coming years, because of its growing projection abroad and the importance of its voice, Brazil will certainly be able to play the role of negotiator in moving global issues in the right direction.The path toward achieving that level is an arduous one. The learning process, which presupposes mistakes and right decisions, will always depend on objective assessments based on a clear definition of our permanent interests, not on the partisan priorities of whatever government is in power.(Description of Source: Sao Paulo O Estado de S. Paulo digital in Portuguese -- Website of conservative, influential daily, critical of the government; URL: http://www.estadao.com.br)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use 
 may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalLeaderProliferation
City: Sao Paulo
Geographic Code: IRN,USA,BRA
Geographic Name: Iran,United States,Brazil,Middle East,Americas,North Americas,South Americas,SOUTH AMERICA,MIDDLE EAST,GULF STATES,WESTERN ASIA,NORTH AMERICA,IRAN,BRAZIL,ASIA,LATIN AMERICA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T12:31:11Z --------------------
Title: Iran: OSC/BBCM Provincial Friday Prayers Roundup 21 May 10
Journal: Iran -- OSC Summary
Text:
(Click here to view video)The following is a roundup of Friday prayer sermons on 21 May in the provinces of   Ardabil, Bushehr, East Azarbayjan (Azarbayjan-e Sharqi), West Azarbayjan (Azarbayjan-e Gharbi), Esfahan, Fars, Hormozgan, Ilam, Kerman, Kermanshah, Khorasan-e Razavi, Khuzestan, Kohkiluyeh-Boyer Ahmad, Kordestan, Mazandaran, Sistan-Baluchestan, and Yazd.In their sermons, Friday prayer leaders commemorated the anniversary of the liberation of Khoramshahr during Iran-Iraq war and praised the bravery of the Iranian soldiers in the war. They also emphasized the importance of the G15 Meeting in Tehran and described the Tehran Declaration as a diplomatic victory for Iran which proved that independent countries can make decisions without world's major powers. ARDABILCapital: Ardabil(Top)Ardabil Friday prayer leaders focused mainly on the Tehran nuclear swap declaration, the anniversary of the liberation of Khorramshahr, and social issues.The Friday prayer leader of Ardabil a
 nd the representative of the supreme leader in the province, Hojjat ol-Eslam Ameli, said that the Tehran Declaration was a transparent document to prove that Iran's nuclear program was peaceful. he added that with the nuclear swap declaration Iran had neutralized the Western propaganda. Ameli added that the West was always looking for Iran's weak points in order to attack it. He added it was the IAEA's duty to provide the Tehran nuclear reactor with fuel. He "found it surprising that although the UN and the IAEA welcomed the Tehran Declaration, the West still wanted a resolution against Iran to be adopted by the UN Security Council."  Ameli also spoke about the anniversary of the regaining control over Khoramshahr during the Iran-Iraq war.The Friday prayer leader of Bilehsavar, Hojjat ol-Eslam Qiyasi, said that the Tehran Declaration showed Iran's good will as well as "the bad intentions" of the United States and the West concerning Iran's nuclear file. The Friday prayer lea
 der of Kowsar, Hojjat ol-Eslam Abdollahi, said that Islam was a religion of peace and stability. He added that Iran's slogan in the nuclear sphere was "nuclear knowledge for all and nuclear bomb for no one."The Friday prayer leader of Meshkinshahr, Hojjat ol-Eslam Baveqar, criticized lavish lifestyle and described faith, ethics and morality as the three main pillars of the family.The Friday prayer leader of Khalkhal, Hojjat ol-Eslam Shoja'i, urged the Law Enforcement Forces to appropriately deal with women who do not observe Islamic dress code. He called on police not to treat those women harshly. BUSHEHRCapital: Bushehr(Top)Ayatollah Safa'i-e Bushehri, the Friday prayer leader of Bushehr and Khamene'i's representative in the province said: "The G15 meeting in Tehran had very important outcomes on Iran's political and scientific fields." He added: "In this meeting major decisions were made. Regarding nuclear energy, it was agreed to exchange 1200 kg of 3.5 percent fuel with 
 120 kg 20 percent fuel on Turkish territory which will be used in the Tehran research plant. This complicated plan which was drafted by the president and nuclear experts had a major positive impact on Iran's scientific and nuclear status throughout the world." He said: "The United States and the Anti-Iran European Union leaders were planning to impose a serious sanction against Iran in the next round of Security Council meeting; however, this move (Tehran Declaration) prevented them from passing the sanctions while it proved the good intentions of the Islamic Iran regarding the peaceful use of nuclear energy."  Ayatollah Safa'i-e Bushehri highlighted "the supreme leader's meeting with the leaders of some countries" adding: "During these meetings, the supreme leader emphasized that the only way to change the current unjust and unfair circumstances that dominate the world is to improve relations between independent countries." He highlighted the anniversary of the liberation o
 f Khoramshahr and said: "This date marks the destruction of the Iraqi army and our soldiers displayed Iran's strength and dignity through their sacrifices." EAST AZARBAYJANCapital: Tabriz(Top)In their sermons on 21 May, Frida prayer leaders in Iran's East Azarbayjan Province focused on the latest G15 summit in Tehran. They also spoke about some local and religious issues.The Friday prayer leader of Tabriz, Ayatollah Mojtahed-Shabestari who is also the supreme leader's representative in the province, described the Tehran declaration, prepared with the mediation of Turkey and Brazil, as an important step to resolve Iran's nuclear issue. He also stressed the importance of observing the Islamic dress code. He expressed regret that the Islamic dress code is losing its importance in society, and urged officials to seriously deal with the issue at universities and government agencies.Leading sermons in Maragheh, Hojjat ol-Eslam Purmohammadi said that the Iranian nation would never 
 give in to the United States' demands to suspend its nuclear activities. He said: "The United States' support for sanctions after the Tehran declaration showed that the United States' enmity towards Iran is boundless."In Azarshahr, Hojjat ol-Eslam Naseri described the Tehran declaration as a diplomatic victory for Iran which "tied the United States' hands."The Friday prayer leader of Ahar, Hojjat ol-Eslam Hajizadeh, said that with the Tehran declaration Iran showed its goodwill, adding: "Now the West should give up its satanic behavior." He also stressed the need for the promotion of the Islamic dress code in society through cultural activities.In Sufyan, Hojjat ol-Eslam Mardanpur harshly criticized the spread of "anti-Islamic dresses" in society. He urged the Islamic Propagation Organization and other bodies to ensure "cultural security" at universities. WEST AZARBAYJANCapital: Orumiyeh(Top)Friday prayer leaders of West Azarbayjan province focused mainly on the G15 summit i
 n Tehran, the anniversary of the liberation of Khorramshahr and the Iran-Turkey-Brazil deal on nuclear fuel during Friday prayer sermons.Orumiyeh Friday prayer leader, Hojjat ol-Eslam val Moslemin Hasani, said that using nuclear energy is the legal right of Iran and Iranian people would never abandon this right. Referring to the Iran-Turkey-Brazil agreement "on Iran's right to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes," he said: "This agreement is a shattering respond to the enemies of the country and especially to the United States". He emphasized the need to offer the first prayer in time. He then pointed out characteristics of Fatemeh Zahra (daughter of Prophet Muhammad) and deemed her an obvious model of a pure woman.In the Orumiyeh Friday prayer sermon for Sunni Muslims, Mollah Abdol Qader Beyzavi, focused on religious issues in the beginning of the sermons. He then described the tools of the "global arrogance" in hitting Islam and said: "The unity and Islamic solidarity
  are the only factors for the success and honour of the Islamic world currently". He considered the rejection of religious teaching as the root of problems and difficulties of contemporary society.Miyandoab Friday prayer leader, Hojjat ol-Eslam Qahramani, described the results of the G15 summit in Tehran as one of the considerable successes of Iranian foreign policy and said: "The closing announcement of the summit foiled plots of the global arrogance". He then congratulated on the anniversary of the liberation of Khoramshahr.Bukan interim Friday prayer leader, Mollah Abdol Rahman Khalifezadeh, congratulated on the anniversary of the liberation of Khoramshahr and said:" Despite its modern weapons and support from the global arrogance, the Saddam regime was defeated due to the will and devotion of the resisting and proud Iranian people in the Khoramshahr battle".Shahindezh Friday prayer leader, Hojjat ol-Eslam Baqeri, referred to the results of the G15 summit in Tehran and de
 scribed its closing announcement as "a big triumph for Iran".Piranshahr interim Friday prayer leader, Mollah Hasel Valakhchi, described the liberation of Khoramshahr as a crucial point in the history of Iran. He emphasized the need to improve the culture of hijab and chastity in society.Takab interim Friday prayer leader, Hojjat ol-Eslam Heydari, criticized violations of the Islamic dress code and called on the authorities and people to cooperate in encouraging the hijab and chastity culture in society and in combating violators.Sardasht Interim Friday prayer leader, Mollah Salam Amini, described the encouragement and expansion of the culture of Promoting Virtue and Prohibiting Vice as one of the bases of resisting the "enemies' cultural assault".Mohamadyar Friday prayer leader, Hojjat ol-Eslam Ebrahimi, described the G15 summit in Tehran as one of the successes of Islamic Iran in the global diplomatic arena and said: "This summit and its closing announcement are another hon
 or for the Islamic Iran, which left the leaders of the global arrogance disappointed". ESFAHANCapital: Esfahan(Top)Esfahan  province Friday prayer sermons focused mainly on the importance of the Islamic dress code (hijab), the 30th anniversary of the implementation of the first economic sanctions against Iran on 22 May, the 28th anniversary of the liberation of Khorramshahr during the Iran-Iraq war on 24 May, the need for "promoting virtue and preventing vice" and some religious and local issues.Speaking on the topic of hijab, Esfahan Friday prayer leader Ayatollah Tabataba'i said: "I believe cultural activity is useless for some individuals and the government should deal with them decisively." Further on, he pointed to the anniversary of the implementation of economic sanctions against Iran that took place on 22 May 1980, adding: "Today, the entire world has borne witness that these sanctions have driven Islamic Iran's youth towards progress." He said of the Khorramshahr li
 beration anniversary: "This victory was possible thanks to the efforts of the youth and the guidance of the supreme jurisconsult (vilayat-e faqih, Iran's system of Shiite clerical rule)."Khur Friday prayer leader Hojjat ol-Eslam Hoseynizadeh regarded the government decision to agree to a nuclear fuel swap deal, brokered by Turkey and Brazil, as an important step for "fighting against the enemies' plots." He later spoke about the importance of following the dress code in Iran, and called for the establishment of a ministry for promotion of virtue and the prevention of vice. On the occasion of Khorramshahr liberation anniversary he said: "All the victories following the Islamic revolution have been divine blessings, one of which was the liberation of Khorramshahr." FARSCapital: Shiraz(Top)Ayatollah Imani, the Friday prayer leader of Shiraz and Khamene'i's representative in the province said: "Hijab prevents men and women from decay. The Islamic republic regime relies on hijab 
 and piety which are the symbols of Islam. Those who sell inappropriate clothing must be dealt with and we must offer clothes that comply with Islamic rules."  He referred to "the fuel exchange declaration agreed by Iran, Brazil, and Turkey" and said: "Tehran Declaration amazed the world and this move by Iran engaged other world countries in international politics." He emphasized that "piety has two sides, firstly adherence to the supreme leader and secondly resisting oppression." HORMOZGANCapital: Bandar Abbas(Top)Ayatollah Na'im-Abadi, the Friday prayer leader of Bandar Abbas Khamene'i's representative in the province said: "The United States must know that if it repeats its past mistakes the great Iranian nation will bring it down at the order of the supreme leader." He commemorated the anniversary of the liberation of Khoramshahr and said: "Despite the support of Western countries for the Ba'thi regime of Iraq, it was God's will to have Khoramshahr liberated."Hojjat ol-Es
 lam Elahimanesh the Friday prayer leader of Rudan said: "The G15 meeting in Tehran and the issuance of Tehran Declaration proved that independent countries can make decisions without the presence of Western powers."  He commemorated 22 May marking the anniversary of imposing sanctions on Iran and the 24 May marking the anniversary of the liberation of Khoramshahr and said: "The United States and its accomplices tried to destroy the Islamic revolution through economic sanctions and imposing a war on us; however our soldiers did not let them succeed. Our nation managed to overcome the enemies' sanctions through their resistance."Hojjat ol-Eslam Baqeri the Friday prayer leader of Hajiabad said: "The liberation of Khoramshahr proved to the world that the Islamic revolution of Iran is unbeatable." He highlighted the G15 meeting in Tehran and said: "The Tehran Declaration undermined all the actions of the West and gave them this message that sanctions against Islamic Iran have nev
 er had any effects and it will never have any."Hojjat ol-Eslam Nuri-e Hosseyni the Friday prayer leader of Prasian referred to "economic sanctions against Iran" and said: "National unity and hard work is the key to overcome these sanctions." He highlighted the G15 meeting in Tehran and the issuance of Tehran Declaration and said: "This declaration showed the political maturity of the Iranian officials."Hojjat ol-Eslam Jahangiri the Friday prayer leader of Fin commemorated the anniversary of the liberation of Khoramshahr and said: "This victory boosted the Iranian nation's confidence and crushed the enemies' calculation. Resistance and protecting our values is the key to success and those nations that protect their values will certainly prevail."  Hr criticized the spread of inappropriate hijab in the society and urged the officials to address the problem. ILAMCapital: Ilam(Top)Hojjat ol-Eslam Mohammad-Naqi Lotfi, the Friday prayer leader of Ilam, and Khamene'i's representati
 ve in the province, commemorated the anniversary of the liberation of Khoramshahr and said: "This victory was a blessing from God and the result of the braveries of our soldiers. The liberation of Khoramshahr changed all international equations and after this glorious operation the enemies of Islam understood the power of Islamic regime." He urged the relevant bodies "to address the issue of inappropriate hijab" and said: "The issue of badhijab is now the main concern of our nation and the initiative to deal with this issue throughout the country, particularly in Tehran, has been started." He highlighted "the role of the state TV in promoting the culture of hijab and piety" adding: "The national TV can produce programs in promoting the Islamic culture."Hojjat ol-Eslam Musavi the Friday prayer leader of Abdanan commemorated the anniversary of the liberation of Khoramshahr and said: "The liberation of Khoramshahr is a high point in the history of the Sacred Defense which broug
 ht freedom to the country." He described the G15 meeting in Tehran as "a successful event" and said: "The United States must know that it can not prevent Iran from progress in the nuclear field."Hojjat ol-Eslam Movahedi the Friday prayer leader of Eyvan emphasized the importance of hijab and piety in the society. He also highlighted the importance of Tehran Declaration and said: "This declaration proved the righteousness of Iran and lack of logic in the United States' actions." He also commemorated the anniversary of the liberation of Khoramshahr.Hojjat ol-Eslam Valadbeygi the Friday prayer leader of Chavar commemorated the anniversary of the liberation of Khormashahr and praised the resistance and bravery of Iranian soldiers during the war. He highlighted "the major achievements of the G15 meeting in Tehran" and said: "The issuance of Tehran Declaration led to more hatred toward the United States in the world's public opinion."Hojjat ol-Eslam Jannesar the interim Friday pra
 yer leader of Darehshahr highlighted the importance of hijab and piety and said: "People must pay more attention to preserving Islamic values." He highlighted "Iran's nuclear progress" and said: "Possessing peaceful nuclear energy is our definite right and we are not afraid of the threats of the global arrogance."Hojjat ol-Eslam Mahmudian the Friday prayer leader of Dehloran highlighted the anniversary of the liberation of Khoramshahr and said: "The Iranian nation's victory and our current peace is owed to the braveries of our soldiers during the Sacred Defense era."Hojjat ol-Eslam Amra'i the Friday prayer leader of Sarableh said: "The liberation of Khoramshahr was not just liberating territories but liberating values." He also said that the G15 meeting in Tehran proved Iranian nation's right regarding peaceful nuclear technology.Hojjat ol-Eslam Hoseyni the Friday prayer leader of Malekshahi commemorated the anniversary of the liberation of Khoramshahr and said: "Our soldier
 s created a great epic by liberating Khoramshahr from the Ba'thi aggressors."Hojjat ol-Eslam Eliasi the Friday prayer leader Mehran highlighted the anniversary of the liberation of Khoramshahr and described it as a blessing from God. He referred to Tehran Declaration and said: "Iran's diplomacy is very strong and the issuance of Tehran Declaration thwarted the enemies' hostile efforts. The G15 meeting proved that Iran will never pursue nuclear weapons and our position is clear on that." KERMANCapital: Kerman(Top)Hojjat ol-Eslam Ja'fari, the Friday prayer leader of Kerman and Khamen'i's representative in the province referred to the Tehran Declaration agreed by Iran, Brazil, and Turkey and said: "This declaration amazed the world and according to many media outlets, Iran took the United States by surprise." He added that "the Great Satan and Western countries did not show an appropriate reaction to the Tehran Declaration" saying: "They want to maintain their monopoly on techn
 ologies; however Iran has achieved major technological progress despite the sanctions. The sanctions are not effective on us, and in fact it was the result of these sanctions that we launched the Omid satellite." He also commemorated the anniversary of the liberation of Khoramshahr and praised the bravery of Iranian soldiers adding: "The damned Saddam had said that if the Iranians ever regained Khoramshahr I would give them the key to Basra, but we saw that faith and belief in God and the Shiite Imams enabled our soldiers to defeat them through their sacrifices."  He highlighted the approaching anniversary of the Imam Khomeyni's death and urged the officials to hold the commemoration ceremonies for the Imam as glorious as possible."Hojjat ol-Eslam the Friday prayer leader of Shahr Babak emphasized the need to promote the culture of hijab and said: "Hijab offers women protection not restriction and the spread of inappropriate hijab in society is a plot by the enemies." He hig
 hlighted "the problem of unemployment in Shahr Babak" and urged the officials to address unemployment."Hojjat ol-Eslam Rezapur the Friday prayer leader of Ferdowsieh highlighted "Iran's diplomatic innovation by agreeing the Tehran Declaration," and added: "This declaration was signed without the Western powers and by the emerging powers." He highlighted the anniversary of the liberation of Khoramshahr and said: "Our soldiers created a lasting epic in Beytolmoqadas operation."Hojjat ol-Eslam Mehri the Friday prayer leader of Faryab highlighted "Iran's nuclear rights" and said: "Tehran Declaration is a just declaration and all independent countries have supported it." KERMANSHAHCapital: Kermanshah(Top)Hojjat ol-Eslam Abdollahi, the interim Friday prayer leader of Kermanshah said: "Observing religious obligations and abiding by the Shari'a rules will increase social security and stability as well as ensuring one's salvation. The Koran has urged us to observe hijab and Islamic v
 alues and by adhering to these principles we can resist the enemies' cultural assault." He described Fatemeh Zahra (Prophet Mohammad's daughter) as "perfect mother and wife" who should be adhered to as a role model by all women.Molla Ahmad Fakhri the Friday prayer leader of Javanrud said: "The liberation of Khoramshahr was a great achievement for the Islamic Iran. The main reasons leading to this victory included God's will, our soldiers bravery, and adherence to Velyat-e Faqih (the rule of jurisconsult)."Molla Ahmad Sheikhi the Friday prayer leader of Salas-e Babajani said: "Observing hijab increases women's dignity and it indicates the purity of the Islamic culture. The women of an Islamic society must adhere to Islamic rules and maintain their Islamic hijab." KHORASAN-E RAZAVICapital: Mashhad(Top)Ayatollah Alam ol-Hoda the Friday prayer leader of Mashhad and Khamene'i's representative in the province said: "The global arrogance is Islam's sworn enemy and the country's off
 icials must not trust arrogant powers."  He highlighted "the enemies' plots against the Islamic regime and their reaction to the recent Tehran Declaration," adding: "The enemies of the revolution will not be satisfied with anything less than the destruction of God's religion (Islam) and the toppling of the Islamic regime and we can not trust them." He added: "The country's officials must know that exchanging smiles with arrogant powers on international stage has no justification," saying: "Their (West) reaction to Tehran Declaration proves that the United States, the West, and the world of infidelity are seeking to uproot Islam and the regime. They are not the kind to shake hands with or to negotiate with. We all witnessed how they ignored the valuable efforts of our country's officials."  He criticized the spread of "inappropriate hijab among some girls," and said: "The spread of inappropriate hijab is the enemies' first front in soft war to corrupt our social values and ou
 r youth, and we must resist it." He said that "the enemies' main focus is on separating people form the Islamic regime," adding: "The enemy will try to spread inappropriate hijab in order to achieve its objectives."KHUZESTANCapital: Ahvaz(Top)Friday prayer leaders of the province focused mainly on the martyred commander Ali Hashemi's burial ceremony, the anniversary of the liberation of Khorramshahr on 24 May, the anniversary of the implementation of US sanctions against Iran on 22 May and the Kuwaiti speaker visiting Iran.Ahvaz Friday prayer leader, Ayatollah Musavi-Jaza'eri,described martyred commander Ali Hashemi as a model for the young generation and next generations in the Friday prayer sermons. He praised the active presence of the people of the province at Ali Hashemi's burial ceremony. He referred to the anniversary of the liberation of Khorramshahr and deemed this day " the day of resistance, victory and heroism," adding: "This victory of Iranian nation was a gift 
 of God to the people of Islamic Iran." Referring to "the political triumph of Iran in the international arena," he said: "These big triumphs, including the nuclear energy of Islamic Iran, led the United States to a deadlock, which made the global arrogance to strengthen sanctions against Iran hastily." He highlighted the importance of the visit of the Kuwaiti speaker to Iran and emphasized the need to improve ties with neighboring countries. He called on the people to pay more attention to the Islamic dress code and urged the authorities of the provincial Islamic Coordination Councils to initiate hijab and chastity rallies like other provinces do.Ahvaz Kutabdollah Friday prayer leader, Hojjat ol-Eslam val Moslemin Jaberian, praised people's participation in the martyred commander Ali Hashemi's burial ceremony and said that this participation foiled again the "enemies' plans". He said: "When witnessing the people's enthusiastic participation in martyr Hashemi's burial ceremon
 y, foreign enemies' and seditious elements, who wage propaganda against Iran, find their entire plans foiled". Pointing out Tehran's recent announcement in Iran-Brazil-Turkey meeting, he said that Iran emerged from this meeting proud and this announcement was still one of the first headlines of the world media. He then referred to 24 May, the anniversary of the liberation of Khoramshahr, and described this day as the day of pride and honor of the Iran-Iraq war heroes and cited late Imam Khomeyni who said that God liberated Khorramshahr. He also appreciated religious and public groups' participation in Fatemiyeh mourning ceremonies.Dezful interim Friday prayer leader, Hojjat ol-Eslam Qazi-Dezfuli, described 24 May, which marks the anniversary of the liberation of Khorramshahr as the peak of the glory and pride of Islamic Iran during the Iran-Iraq eight-year war.Taleqani Friday prayer leader, Hojjat ol-Eslam Mo'arref, referred to the "great victories" of Iran in the internatio
 nal arena and said: "Everybody knows that the United States and its allies do not want Iran to become an independent and powerful country".Veys interim Friday prayer leader, Hojjat ol-Eslam Fad'ami, called on the authorities to pay more attention to moral bases of the revolution and said that the Islamic Republic of Iran uses its power for the aims of its brave and devoted youth.Alvar-e Garmsiri Friday prayer leader, Hojjat ol-Eslam Hoseynimanesh, referred to the Cultural Heritage Week and said that Iran is a civilized country with many tourist sites, which can play an important role in increasing the tourism industry and create jobs.Shushtar Friday prayer leader, Hojjat ol-Eslam Mohaqeq, stressed on the importance of the leadership in the Islamic culture and in the Shiite world.Hoveyzeh Friday prayer leader, Hojjat ol-Eslam Zahavi, stressed on the need to implement the "hijab and chastity" project in society.Haftgel interim Friday prayer leader, Hojjat ol-Eslam Khalili, ref
 erred to the anniversary of the implementation of the US sanctions on Iran and said: "The 30-year history of the Islamic Revolution has proven that the United States and its allies have always been defeated by Iran".Gotvand Friday prayer leader, Hojjat ol-Eslam Alavi-Asl, said: "The plots of the enemies of the Islamic Republic have always been defeated by the people of Iran and the global arrogance's sanctions against Iran have brought them no results".Lali interim Friday Prayer leader, Hojjat ol-Eslam Garmsiri, referred to the World Tourism Day and called on the authorities and people to be more diligent in protecting historical resources of the country.Izeh Friday prayer leader, Hojjat ol-Eslam Musavi, said: "Although, the leaders of the West and the United States resort to the culture of violence and sanctions against Iran, thei r activities have never had any results."Baghmalek Friday prayer leader, Hojjat ol-Eslam Darvishi, referred to the anniversary of the "criminal U
 nited States'" sanctions against Iran and said: "Whenever our space is tightened, we develop and progress more actively".Sardasht interim Friday prayer leader, Hojjat ol-Eslam Nasiri, referred to the G15 summit in Tehran and said: "This summit was a very big success for the Islamic Republic".Mahshahr, Andimeshk, Imam Khomeyni Port, Ramshir, Hamidiyeh, Arvandkenar, Susangerd, Omidiyeh, Ramhormoz, Shush Friday prayer leaders congratulated the people on the anniversary of the liberation of Khoramshahr. KOHKILUYEH-BOYER AHMADCapital: Yasuj(Top)Kohkiluyeh-Boyer Ahmad Friday prayer leaders mainly focused on the need to abide by the Islamic dress code (hijab), the anniversary of the liberation of Khorramshahr during the Iran-Iraq war, the lack of control over the market and some local and religious issues.The interim Friday prayer leader of Yasuj, Hojjat ol-Eslam Musavi-A'zam, criticized violation of hijab in society, especially at wedding ceremonies. He also stressed the importanc
 e of "promoting virtue and preventing vice."Dogonbadan Friday prayer leader Hojjat ol-Eslam Musavi discussed the anniversary of the liberation of Khorramshahr during the Iran-Iraq war, saying: "The liberation of Khorramshahr was a sign of the awareness and self-confidence of a nation that has not surrendered to the enemies, and has resisted firmly." He also spoke about religious issues.Friday prayer leader of Sisakht Hojjat ol-Eslam Khalili, criticized the high prices of some goods in Sisakht, which "causes discontent among the people." He urged the relevant bodies to better control the market. KORDESTANCapital: Sanandaj(Top)Mamusta Hesamoddin Mojtahedi, the Friday prayer leader of Sanandaj highlighted the anniversary of the liberation of Khoramshahr and said: "This is the symbol of resistance and self sacrifices of the Iranian nation." He emphasized the importance of discharging religious duties in a timely fashion and urged the youth to maintain piety and hijab. He urged w
 omen to adhere to Fatemeh Zahra (daughter of Prophet Mohammad) and adopt her as their role model. MAZANDARANCapital: Sari(Top)In their prayer sermons on 21 May, Friday prayer leaders of Mazandaran province focused mainly on the Islamic dress code (hijab), the nuclear swap deal reached by Iran, Turkey and Brazil, the G15 Summit in Tehran, sanctions against Iran, the anniversary of the liberation of Khorramshahr during the Iran-Iraq war and some religious and local issues.The Friday prayer leader of Sari, Ayatollah Tabarsi, spoke about Prophet Muhammad's daughter and the need to uphold hijab. Further on, he pointed to the Tehran Declaration issued by Iran, Turkey and Brazil on the Iran nuclear swap deal, stating: "The Tehran Declaration was a diplomatic victory for our country and an important step towards the establishment of trust between Iran and the global community." He then moved on to the anniversary of the liberation of Khorramshahr and paid honor to the memory of mart
 yrs.Tonekabon Friday prayer leader Hojjat ol-Eslam Qoddusi congratulated the people on the anniversary of the liberation of Khorramshahr, saying: "The Islamic Republic of Iran's Guards Corps and army military exercises have doubled Islamic Iran's power." Then he spoke about the need to uphold hijab in the society.Friday prayer leader of Chalus Hojjat ol-Eslam Rashedi said: "Sanctions against Iran smooth the grounds for the country's development." Further on, he spoke about the anniversary of the liberation of Khorramshahr during the Iran-Iraq war, saying: "Khorramshahr was freed by God's will and through the leadership of the late Imam (Khomeyni)". Then he discussed the G15 Summit in Tehran and the declaration issued by Iran, Turkey and Brazil on Iran nuclear swap deal, adding: "This move, in fact, has confused the United States and the West and the US allies."Mahmudabad Friday prayer leader Hojjat ol-Eslam Esma'ili pointed to the importance of upholding hijab, saying: "The 
 lack of veil is one of the cultural and political strategies of the Global Arrogance (Western powers)."Zirab Friday prayer leader Hojjat ol-Eslam Kashiri regarded the G15 Summit in Tehran as very valuable. He added: "Signing the Tehran declaration was a firm blow against America and a diplomatic deadlock for the West."SISTAN-BALUCHESTANCapital: Zahedan(Top)The Friday prayer leaders of Sistan-Baluchestan noted the anniversary of the liberation of Khorramshahr during the Iran-Iraq war, as well as urging their countrymen to be vigilant with regard to "enemy's plots."The supreme leader's representative in Sistan-Baluchestan Province and Friday prayer leader of Zahedan, Ayatollah Soleymani, spoke about the anniversary of the liberation of Khorramshahr during the Iran-Iraq war, saying that it was one of the most spectacular victories of the Islamic Revolution. He added that the city was liberated thanks to the efforts and self-sacrifice of the Iranian armed forces. Ayatollah Soley
 mani also accused the "enemies" of plotting against Iran. He said that "by relying on God, and the wise and vigilant leadership of our people during the past 30 years, we have managed to achieve the highest peaks of science and progress, including uranium enrichment, developments in stem cells and the creation of Sejjil missiles." Ayatollah Soleymani said that the &amp;quo t;enemy" is using the religious and ethnic diversity of Iran to cause a split in society and undermine security in the region. He urged his countrymen to be vigilant.The Friday prayer leader of Zabol, Hojjat ol-Eslam Tabataba'i, said that the Tehran declaration and the G15 summit were great victories for Iran, which took the United States by surprise.The Friday prayer leader of Iranshahr, Hojjat ol-Eslam Abdollahi, mentioned the anniversary of the liberation of Khorramshahr. He said that the city was liberated from Iraqi forces despite the fact that the enemy was equipped with the state-of-the-art weapons.The 
 Sunni Friday prayer leader of Iranshahr, Hojjat ol-Eslam Abdossamad Karimza'i, said that the Islamic Republic of Iran relies on God and the supreme leader to prevent any "enemy plots."The Friday prayer leader of Khash, Hojjat ol-Eslam Miri, pointed out that the liberation of Khorramshahr was the liberation of Islamic values, and it is necessary to expand Islamic values and the culture of self-sacrifice.The Friday prayer leader of Konarak, Hojjat ol-Eslam Zare'i, said that Iran's willingness to swap nuclear fuel had once again prevented "enemy plots" against Iran's nuclear progress.Other provincial Friday prayer leaders praised the Iranian armed forces for liberating Khorramshahr during the Iran-Iraq war.YAZDCapital: Yazd(Top)Hojjat ol-Eslam Saduqi the Friday prayer leader of Yazd and Khamene'i's representative in the province said: "The nuclear energy issue is one of the country's main issues and all political currents must act in such a way to create a calm atmosphere." He 
 highlighted "the trilateral declaration signed at the presence of Brazilian, Turkish, and Iranian presidents (as stated) and the world's reaction to this agreement" adding: "The enemies of the Islamic regime particularly the United States and the Zionist regime will do anything to agitate the situation regarding Iran's nuclear issue." He emphasized that "nuclear energy is a national issue and it does not belong to specific parties," adding: "All individuals and political groups must put differences aside on this issue and focus on our national interests."  He referred to "the sanctions to be imposed by the UN Security Council" and urged "the international community to give a firm response to Tehran Declaration, while the UN Security Council must reject the draft sanctions." He highlighted the anniversary of the liberation of Khoramshahr and said: "Faith in God is the reason behind the victories gained by the Islamic republic."  He highlighted the importance of "the supreme l
 eader's role in the Islamic regime" and urged "all political groups to maintain their unity within the limits of the constitution and the supreme leader. If we establish domestic unity, foreign enemies will not be able to achieve anything."Hojjat ol-Eslam A'rafi the Friday prayer leader of Meybod highlighted the anniversary of the liberation of Khoramshahr and said: "The Beytolmoqadas operation was not a normal operation and it amazed the entire world as the soldiers of Islam liberated Khoramshahr with their bravery and determination." He also emphasized the importance of "piety and chastity culture," and urged officials to spread the culture of Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice in order to deal with inappropriate hijab."Hojjat ol-Eslam Borhan the Friday prayer leader of Mehriz highlighted the G15 meeting in Tehran and said: "Tehran Declaration made the country proud." He also commemorated the anniversary of the liberation of Khoramshahr and said: "Liberating Khoram
 sh ahr was a miracle which made Islam and the Islamic regime proud."Hojjat ol-Eslam Hoseynipur the interim Friday prayer leader of Ardakan highlighted "the country's victory in Tehran Declaration" adding: "Through the unity of the officials and people all the barriers will be removed."Hojjat ol-Eslam Mohajeriyan the Friday prayer leader of Tabas said: "Following the G15 meetings in Tehran, the US leaders keep changing their words."Hojjat ol-Eslam Mollahoseyni the Friday prayer leader of Bahabad commemorated the anniversary of the liberation of Khoramshahr and said: "This great day is a reminder of the braveries of our soldiers during the war and it is a high point in our history." He highlighted "the G15 meetings in Tehran" and said: "This meeting's statement shows the regime's political strength and wisdom on international stage."Hojjat ol-Eslam Fatemi the Friday prayer leader of Herat highlighted "the implementation of the hijab and piety initiative in the society and urge
 d the officials to firmly deal with badhijab individuals."(Top)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
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-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T09:08:45Z --------------------
Title: For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov
Journal: Iran - OSC Summary
Text:
The following is a roundup of reports appearing in the Iranian media sources in English, and news and commentaries published in non-US media on 28 May-1 June 2010.  This roundup is in the following sections: (Click on the links to go to the desired section) GAZA ATTACK POLITICS/DIPLOMACY NUCLEAR ISSUE ECONOMY/ENERGY MILITARY/DEFENSE/SECURITY TERRORISM/CRIME/NARCOTICS DISSENT/OPPOSITION SCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY SOCIETY/RELIGION ENVIRONMENT HEALTH/MEDICINE CULTURE/MEDIA/SPORTS COMMENTARIES/ANALYSES/INTERVIEWSGAZA ATTACK AFP:  "Iran seizes on Gaza ship raid for new Israel tirade:" by Farhad Pouladi(Mon, 31 May)  Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said a deadly Israeli raid on a Gaza-bound aid ship on Monday was an "inhuman" act that brought Tehran's archfoe "closer than ever to its end." The Iranian foreign ministry called on Arab and Muslim nations to stand united in protesting against the raid. "The inhuman action of the Zionist regime against the Palestinian people and preventin
 g the humanitarian aid from reaching Gazans does not show this regime's strength, but is a sign of its weakness, and all this brings this sinister and fake regime closer than ever to its end," the official IRNA news agency quoted Ahmadinejad as saying. The hardliner, who has previously sparked anger around the world for saying that Israel was "doomed to be wiped off the map," said Monday's attack was an "insult to human dignity." "Today, it is clearly evident that the Palestinian issue is not an Arab or Islamic one, but a world issue. Today, the reason for creating and imposing of the Zionist regime has become evident to all," he said. "The creation of this fake regime is not only to control the Middle East, but the whole world. Therefore, supporting Palestinian people is like supporting the peace and freedom of all nations." Iran and Israel have been bitterly opposed since the 1979 revolution but relations have worsened under Ahmadinejad who has even called the Holocaust a 
 "myth." Up to 19 people died when Israeli forces stormed the flotilla of aid-carrying ships bound for Gaza at dawn on Monday in international waters off the northern Israeli port city of Haifa, Israeli television reported. The bloody ending to the high-profile mission to deliver supplies to the besieged Gaza Strip plunged Israel into a diplomatic crisis and widespread protests against the Jewish state. The Iranian foreign ministry condemned the Israeli "crime" and urged the UN Security Council and the Organisation of Islamic Conference to take immediate action against the "Zionist regime." "This incident shows the criminal and war-mongering identity of this regime," the ministry said in a statement carried by the official IRNA news agency. "This attack has happened... while Gaza is under an inhuman blockade contrary to all international rules. The attack is an example of marine terrorism. We want all Arab and Muslim nations to take a unified stance and want Western nations t
 o end their double standards." Later in Tehran, dozens of people pelted stones at the UN office chanting: "Death to Israel," and: "This savage regime of Israel must be wiped out." They also burnt the Israeli flag and tore up pictures of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, an AFP photographer said. (Back to top) Press TV:  "Iran calls for emergency OIC meeting"(Mon, 31 May)  Iran's Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki informs the Organization of the Islamic Conference of Tehran's request for an emergency OIC meeting. In a phone conversation with Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, Mottaki relayed the Islamic Republic's request for an emergency meeting of the OIC member states, IRNA reported. Mottaki, who is in Japan for talks on Tehran's nuclear program and the recent fuel swap declaration, condemned the Zionist regime's inhuman crimes. Ihsanoglu stated that he would discuss Iran's suggestion for an emergency meeting with other OIC members. (Back to top) Fars News Agency: "Iran calls for
  UNSC emergency meeting on Israeli attack against aid flotilla"(Mon, 31 May)  Head of the Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission Alaeddin Boroujerdi called for an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council to condemn Israel's attack on a six-ship convoy of humanitarian aids to the besieged Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. "The UN Security Council should hold an emergency meeting to condemn the Zionist regime and ratify some punishments for the usurper regime," Boroujerdi told FNA on Monday... Boroujerdi viewed the attack as a crime against the entire human community, and strongly blasted the aggression by the Zionist regime against the Freedom Flotilla. "The move by the Zionist regime was actually a measure against the entire human community and the today world. Therefore, all the world countries should stand up to confront the criminal regime and condemn this inhumane measure strongly and immensely and take the necessary measures to confront the 
 regime," he added. Boroujerdi also urged the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) to adopt immediate measures against the Zionist regime's criminal attack on the Freedom Flotilla. (Back to top) Press TV:  "Ahmadinejad slams Israel convoy attack"(Mon, 31 May)  Iran has condemned Israel's deadly attack on a flotilla carrying thousands of tons of supplies for Gaza, calling the regime in Tel Aviv a threat to global peace and security. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad rejected the notion on Monday that the Israeli raid on the Freedom Flotilla was indicative of Tel Aviv's military muscle, explaining further that it was a mere symbol of its weakness. President Ahmadinejad said Israel was "fabricated not only with the aim of gaining control over the Middle East but also over the entire world." Calling for international efforts to save the Palestinian nation, the Iranian president said, "Supporting the people of Palestine is equal to supporting peace and freedom of every
  nation." ... (Back to top) Press TV: "'Israel nears end after raid on aid ships'"(Mon, 31 May)  Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says Israel's deadly raid on a Gaza-bound aid convoy marks the beginning of the end for the regime. Israel is facing international condemnation over the attack that claimed at least 20 lives and wounded dozens more. Several European states have summoned Israeli ambassadors over the assault. Ahmadinejad condemned the move on Monday, saying the attack on the Freedom Flotilla was a sign of Israel's weakness. "A select few (Israel) think that such actions are a sign of power, whereas they should be aware this will lead to their end," Ahmadinejad was quoted as saying on Monday by Fars News Agency. "Someone asked me why I no longer say Israel must be torn down. I said because there is no (no longer a)need to say Israel must be demolished -- as this regime will self destruct," he added. The Iranian president also called on Tel Aviv's allies to stop 
 supporting a regime that acts like a "professional assassin." "The time is ripe for the international community and the conscientious to take a resolute stance against the recurring crimes of this occupier and belligerent regime," Ahmadinejad said. (Back to top) Press TV:  "Iran blasts Israeli raid on aid convoy"(Mon, 31 May)  The Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council has vehemently condemned Israel's brutal attack on an aid convoy headed for Gaza, saying it shows the Israel's "sheer desperation." "Under growing pressure from world public opinion, the criminal and terrorist Zionist regime has now resorted to maritime murder", said Saeed Jalili, dismissing the attack as "terrorist piracy." He said such moves by the Israeli regime symbolize Tel Aviv and Washington's "60-year opposition to the freedom of nations". "The behavior of the Israeli regime over the past year, particularly the terrorist act this morning, indicates Obama's peace plan was a deceptive move
  aiming to buy the Zionist regime time," added Jalili. He said the Israeli attack on the Gaza aid flotilla is a test of will for all those who claim to be advocates of freedom and human rights. "The US as well as the Zionist regime's regional and international sympathizers should be accountable to the world public opinion for supporting Tel Aviv," said Jalili. (Back to top) Press TV:  "Iran sees 'global threat' in Israel"(Mon, 31 May)  Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Saeed Jalili says Israel's deadly attack on the Gaza-bound aid Flotilla has turned the regime into a global threat. "The Zionist regime's folly shows that this regime is a threat to the independent world, just as defending Palestine and Gaza is protecting liberty," Jalili was quoted as saying in a statement from the council secretariat. The remarks were made during a telephone conversation with the head of the Hamas political bureau, Khaled Meshaal, over the recent killing of at least 20 ac
 tivists by the Israeli navy in a pre-dawn raid on the Freedom Flotilla aid convoy. Hailing Iran's support for the Palestinian nation, Meshaal echoed calls by top Iranian officials for the formation of a united stance against Israeli aggressions in the Middle East. "The international community must oppose the Zionist's regime's crimes, and today has paved the way for punishing this regime," Meshaal said. (Back to top) IRNA:  "US is accomplice with Israel in massacre of human rights activists"(Mon, 31 May)  Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Saeed Jalili said on Monday that the US president is accomplice with Israel in massacre of human rightrs activists on board the convoy of aid ships ferrying toward Gaza.  Jalili made the remarks in a telephone conversation with Ramadan Abdullah, the secretary general of Palestine's Islamic Jihad movement. The telephone conversation was made following inhuman attacks made by the Zionist regime to Flotilla of six aid ships
 . The US should be held accountable before the international community as the main supporter of Israeli crimes against humanity, Jalili said. Ramadan Abdullah, for his part, thanked the Islamic Republic of Iran for its timely and decisive stand. Abdullah said that the inhuman move proved that the Israeli leaders are suffering from nervous breakdown. These crimes are the beginning of new developments in the region which would lead to break the siege on Gaza, he said. Some members of the European parliament, former western diplomats, reporters and human rights activists are among the victims or casualties of the brutal attack. (Back to top) IRNA:  "Defense minister condemns Israel attack on relief convoy"(Mon, 31 May)  Minister of Defense Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi said on Monday that Israel's "savage" attack on the Gaza aid convoy marks countdown of its annihilation.  Vahidi said the barbaric attack is a crime against humanity and an example of sea piracy and state terror
 ism. He said the Zionist regime showed that it is not committed to even the most basic human rights principles. He added that the event is also a big test for the so-called advocates of human rights, showing to what extent they are loyal to their promises. (Back to top) Press TV:  "Iran Gen. calls for isolation of Israel"(Mon, 31 May)  Iran's Defense Minister Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi says the international community must isolate Israel for attacking an aid convoy en route to the impoverished Gaza Strip. "Israel triggered the countdown of its destruction by attacking the Freedom Flotilla," Brig. Gen. Vahidi said, condemning the attack on the Gaza-bound aid convoy, ILNA reported. The Iranian minister added that the imposition of all-encompassing sanctions, severing all diplomatic, economic and political ties with the Zionist regime is the least the international community could do against Israel for committing such a horrendous crime. Gen. Vahidi said the US, Europe and 
 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) must answer to the world public opinion why no action has been taken towards the nuclear disarmament of Israel, which is capable of committing such atrocities. "This is an important test for the advocates of human rights which will show how committed they are to their slogans," Vahidi noted. (Back to top) Fars News Agency:  "Commander: Raid on aid convoy shows Israel's inability to confront resistance"(Mon,  31 May) A senior Iranian military commander said on Monday that Tel Aviv's raid on a convoy of humanitarian aids to the Gaza Strip displays the Zionist regime's inability to confront Palestinian resistance. "Zionists' barbaric attack on aid ships is viewed as maximum weakness and feebleness of the Quds occupying regime," Iranian Armed Forces Deputy Chief of Staff for Cultural Affairs and Defense Publicity Brigadier General Massoud Jazayeri said in an statement issued today. "This also indicates that the illegitimate Zionist regim
 e rulers are stuck in a dead-end in their confrontation against the popular resistance of Palestine, Gaza, Hamas and Islamic Jihad," Jazayeri added. He warned Israel about the severe consequence of its raid on the aid convoy, and called for a united global and international move against the Israeli crime, urging human rights activists, liberalist groups, independent states and the entire world to flock to streets and voice their strong protest at Israel's crimes. "People of the world should put pressure on their governments to cut their ties with this fake regime," the commander added. (Back to top) Press TV:  "Iran: Muslims must unite against Israel"(Mon, 31 May)  Iranian Parliament (Majlis) Speaker Ali Larijani has urged Muslim countries to adopt a united stance on condemning Israel's raid on Gaza-bound aid ships. "It is necessary for all Muslim states to assume a unified and common stance on condemning the latest crime committed by the Zionist regime," Larijani was quoted
  as saying on Monday by IRNA. "This tragic incident which reveals the true nature of Israel is a disgraceful stain on the reputation of this occupying regime," he added. The remarks were made during a telephone conversation with his Syrian counterpart, Mahmoud al-Abrash, over the Israeli navy's assault on the Gaza-bound Freedom Flotilla, a convoy of nine ships carrying aid to the impoverished coastal strip. Larijani also proposed that the issue be fully discussed in the upcoming Tehran summit of the Gaza Troika, a body formed by the Asian Parliamentary Assembly (APA) to help the besieged people of Gaza. The APA has tasked a troika of parliament speakers from Iran, Indonesia and Syria to tour the Middle East for finding initiatives to provide aid to the impoverished people of Gaza. (Back to top) Fars News Agency: "Parliament commission slams Israeli raid on Gaza Aid convoy"(Mon, 31 May)  The Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission on Monday strong
 ly condemned Israel's attack on Freedom Flotilla, carrying humanitarian aids to the Gaza Strip. "The crime committed by the Zionist regime is a declaration of war against the world," the commission said in a statement issued on Monday. The statement added that the crime demonstrated the fact that Zionists recognize no boundary for their acts in the international community and even attack unarmed people that were heading to Gaza to provide the besieged people with humanitarian aids. The commission further called on the UN Secretary-General to take proper measures to condemn the crime, issue a resolution to punish the Zionist regime and bring the case to the International Criminal Court (ICC). (Back to top) Press TV:  "Iran students protest Israeli attack"(Mon, 31 May)  Iranian students have gathered in front of the UN headquarters in Tehran in protest to the Israeli navy's attack on a convoy of aid ships bound for Gaza. The students held Palestinian flags, chanting "Death to 
 Israel," "Death to America," and "Death to Britain," Fars News Agency reported. (Back to top) POLITICS/DIPLOMACY Press TV: "Leader to conduct next Friday prayers"(Sat, 28 May) Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei will conduct the coming Friday Prayers at the Imam Khomeini mausoleum. The Leader's address will also mark the 21st anniversary of the passing of the founder of the Islamic Republic Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Hojjatoleslam Seyyed Hassan Khomeini will separately address worshipers before the prayers. (Back to top) Fars News Agency: "Iranian FM arrives in Japan"(Sun, 30 May)  Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki arrived in Tokyo on Sunday to discuss bilateral relations as well as regional and international issues in meetings with senior Japanese officials. Mottaki, accompanied by Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehman-Parast and a number of other Iranian officials, was welcomed by Iranian A
 mbassador to Japan Seyed Abbas Araqchi and the director general of Japan's foreign ministry for the Middle East affairs upon arrival at Tokyo airport. During his daylong visit, Mottaki is scheduled to meet with his Japanese counterpart Katsuya Okada, former Foreign Minister Komura Masahiko and former Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda. The Iranian top diplomat is also due to attend a working breakfast with members of Japan-Iran Parliamentary Friendship Group and to address people in a think-tank in Tokyo. Mottaki's visit to Japan, as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council, will take place after the US administration presented a draft sanctions resolution against Iran to the UNSC, despite recent agreements among Iran, Brazil and Turkey on swap of nuclear fuel. (Back to top) Mehr News Agency: "APA troika meeting to open in Tehran Tuesday"(Mon, 31 May)  The APA troika meeting will open Tuesday in Tehran. Iran's Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani will host the meeting which wil
 l be attended by the parliament speakers of Syria, Indonesia as well as the deputy speaker of the National Council of Palestine. Troika includes parliament speakers of Iran, Indonesia and Syria, as the former, current and future presidents of the APA. The meeting comes as Israeli naval commandos stormed a flotilla of ships carrying aid and hundreds of pro-Palestinian activists to the blockaded Gaza Strip on Monday, killing at least 10 passengers in a predawn raid that set off worldwide condemnation. The attack came as a shock to the world. The main mandate of the troika is to help a resolution of regional conflicts, promote international peace and security by raising public awareness. (Back to top) Mehr News Agency: "President bound to obey law: MP"(Mon, 31 May)  Influential MP Mohammad-Reza Bahonar has said the president is bound to implement the parliament's ratifications. The remarks have been made in response to the Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's recent critical remarks about som
 e of the ratifications of the Majlis and Expediency Council.  "Observance of the law is considered as a basic principle in the modern societies," Bahonar said.  The administration has frequently violated parliamentary ratifications and parliamentary committees have tried to resolve the issue and inform executive officials about their duties, but it seems that sometimes they breach the law on purpose, he stated. "We don't claim that the Majlis' ratifications are flawless, because human being makes mistake, but there are legal mechanism to modify them," he asserted.  After a law is passed in the Majlis, the Guardian Council determines whether it is consistent with the constitution and sharia (religious rules) and then the president must order implementation of the law, he explained.  According to the constitution, the Expediency Council is tasked with resolving any disagreement between the Majlis and Expediency Council, and the president can not decide in this regard and is no
 t allowed to play down the status of the Expediency Council, he emphasized.  Bahonar went on to say that the observance of law and the constitution is a requirement for any person who takes a post in the Islamic Republic, and the president has sworn to obey the constitution.  Commenting on the president's remarks about MPs' questions from the ministers, Bahonar stated it is said that MPs take ministers' time by their questions, but the president should know the ministers are obligated to answer the MPs.  Bahonar, who was deputy Majlis speaker from 2004-2010, failed to be reelected as deputy speaker in the recent Majlis presiding board election as the pro-administration MPs withdrew their support from him. (Back to top) Fars News Agency:  "Islamic Jihad leader: US unable to attack Iran"(Sat, 29 May)  The United States is not able to wage another war in the region, specially against Iran, Islamic Jihad leader in Gaza Abdullah Shami said, reminding that other antagonistic measu
 res against Tehran, such as economic sanctions and pressures, cannot bear any fruit for Washington and its allies either. "The US after its humiliating defeat in Iraq and Afghanistan is not able to start a new fire as it is well aware that in case of war against Iran, the country will target the US military bases in the Persian Gulf region, which would inflict heavy damage on Washington," Shami told FNA on Saturday. He said the American society is also not ready to accept such heavy damages, and the US knows very well that such a war would not serve its interests and would bring the democratic values claimed by Washington under question. Shami also pointed to the economic sanctions imposed on Iran by the West over Tehran's peaceful nuclear program, and said the era of sanctions is over as there are vigilant forces in the world who stand against the US hegemony and are ready to break such boycotts and neutralize the effects of such sanctions... (Back to top) Fars News Agency:
   "Turkish President invites Ahmadinejad to attend CICA Conference in Istanbul"(Sat, 29 May)  Turkish President Abdullah Gul invited his Iranian counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to attend a Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA) to be held in Istanbul next month. The Conference is scheduled to be held in Istanbul, Turkey on June 4-10. Turkey will take over the rotating term presidency of the CICA from Kazakhstan in June. Last year, Gul accepted Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev's offer to take the presidency of the body. CICA is an inter-governmental security forum in Asia which was initiated by Kazakhstan president in 1992 and currently comprises 18 member-states, including Iran, Russia, China, South Korea and Turkey. Iran and Turkey have recently shown a stride in expanding cooperation in all the different fields. Turkey has recently played a key role in resolving a nuclear stalemate between Iran and the West over the supply of nuclear
  fuel for Tehran's research reactor by offering - in collaboration with Brazil - a breakthrough agreement to Iran, which was accepted by the Tehran officials. Observers and analysts believe that Tehran and Ankara are experiencing a new era in ties and cooperation initiated after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ascended to power in 2005. (Back to top) Fars News Agency:  "Speaker asks for Islamic states' joint efforts to restore Palestinian rights"(Sun, 30 May)  Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani on Sunday called on Islamic states to act jointly to restore the rights of the oppressed Palestinian people. Speaking at a meeting with the visiting Speaker of the Indonesian House of Representatives, Marzuki Ali, here in Tehran today, Larijani pointed to the crisis in Palestine and the Zionist regime of Israel's crimes in the Palestinian territories, and stressed, "Today, Palestine needs a joint move by the Islamic states to restore the rights of the oppressed Palestinian people." Larijani 
 also underlined the important role of the Asian Parliaments Assembly (APA) in defending the rights of the Palestinian people, and further thanked the efforts made by Indonesia in this regard. The 40-nation APA, which was founded in 2006 in Tehran at the Seventh Session of the Association of Asian Parliaments for Peace, is the continuation of an organization which was established in 1999. Indonesia hosted the 4th session of the Asian Parliaments Assembly (APA) in December 2009. During the meeting, Marzuki Ali reminded Iran and Indonesia's common and identical stances on a wide range of different regional and international issues, specially Palestine, and underlined the necessity of a joint move for supporting the Palestinian people. "Solution to the Palestinian crisis is only possible through joint cooperation among the Islamic states," the Indonesian official added. (Back to top) Mehr News Agency:  "Iran should seriously address false claims to Persian Gulf islands"(Sun, 30 
 May)  MP Kazem Jalali has asked the Iranian Foreign Ministry to adopt a harder line toward the United Arab Emirates over its unjustified claims to three Iranian Persian Gulf islands. "The adoption of such stances and the presentation of such false claims (by the UAE) warrants speedier and stricter measures by the Foreign Ministry," Jalali, who is the rapporteur of the Majlis National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said in Tehran on Sunday. "Unfortunately, the Foreign Ministry's response to these acts by the United Arab Emirates is to simply laugh them off," he added.  The Iranian MP said at times when the United States ratchets up the pressure on the Islamic Republic, certain Arab countries also raise diversionary issues to serve U.S. interests.  Raising issues like the false claims to Iranian Persian Gulf islands is undoubtedly a conspiracy, and certain Arab states are acting as lackeys of the United States, Jalali stated. By distorting the historical facts, the Uni
 ted Arab Emirates is seeking to influence international public opinion, he said.  Iran is a vast country with an ancient history, but some of these Arab states are not even a century old, and yet they blatantly make claims to Iranian islands, Jalali added. He also criticized certain Arab countries for their silence about the atrocities Israel is committing in the Palestinian territories. "In a world where Islamic and Arab territories are occupied by the Zionist regime, and every day Palestinian children are being killed and the most horrendous crimes are being committed in Gaza by the Israelis, some of these Arab states do not even take the least practical step to help the Palestinian people," the MP observed. (Back to top) Fars News Agency: "Iran, Indonesia stress activation of mutual cooperation"(Sun, 30 May)  Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani and Speaker of the Indonesian House of Representatives Marzuki Ali in a meeting here in Tehran on Sunday stressed the necessi
 ty for mutual cooperation between the two sides. At the meeting, the two sides underlined the necessity of activating mutual cooperation in different fields, specially in economy, industries and trade. Larijani, for his part, voiced pleasure over the growing ties between Iran and Indonesia, and added, "Historical bonds and interactions between the two nations as well as common views of the two countries about major international issues and the Islamic World is a proper ground for strengthening and promoting the level of mutual cooperation." The Iranian speaker also voiced the parliament's preparedness to support expansion of bilateral ties with Indonesia in different fields. "Expansion of cooperation between (the two countries') private sectors and chambers of commerce will cause a major jump in the two sides' economic, industrial and trade ties," Larijani stated. During the meeting, Marzuki Ali underlined the importance of consolidating friendly ties between the two Muslim 
 nations, and added, "Given Iran and Indonesia's role in the world of Islam, strengthening mutual cooperation will play an effective role in the promotion of the status of the Muslim states in international relations." (Back to top) Fars News Agency: "Iran decisive to boost ties with Kazakhstan"(Sun, 30 May)  Expansion of ties with Central Asian states, particularly Kazakhstan, constitutes Iran's strategic policy, an Iranian foreign ministry official underlined on Sunday. Speaking at a meeting with Kazakhstan's ambassador to Tehran, Head of the Iranian Foreign Ministry's Second Office for Commonwealth and Northeastern Neighbors Nasser Aqajani noted Tehran's detailed plans for cooperating with Kazakhstan on all the bilateral, regional and international scenes. "Spheres of our cooperation with Kazakhstan are defined in the three levels of bilateral, regional and international," he said. "At the bilateral level, over 60 arenas of cooperation between the two countries have been i
 dentified, part of them have been brought into operation while implementation of cooperation in the remaining parts is on the agenda," Aqajani added. He further described energy, transportation and trade as among the two countries' major capacities and capabilities for expanding their bilateral relations. Aqajani also pointed out that the two countries plan to start direct flights from Tehran to Astana, saying that the measure would certainly boost ties between Iran and Kazakhstan. Pointing to Kazakhstan's presidency over the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC), the Iranian official voiced Iran's support for the Central Asian state in the Islamic body. During the meeting, Managing-Director of Iran's Mahan Airlines Hamid Arabnejad also said that his company has planned a number of 150 flights between Tehran and Almaty for the first year of operation. "But for the coming years, we will definitely have daily flights, considering that the two brotherly and friendly coun
 tries need more than a flight per day," Arabnejad added. (Back to top) Fars News Agency: "Kyrgyz envoy thanks Iran's support for Bishkek"(Mon, 31 May)  Bishkek's ambassador to Tehran on Monday praised Iran's support for the Kyrgyz interim government during the recent political unrests in the Central Asian state, saying that Tehran's aids and backup will ensure expansion of ties and cooperation between the two countries in future. Madat Khan Shirmkolov made the remarks while briefing reporters about the political developments in his country in April. He further pointed to the remarks made by the Iranian leaders on the political development in Kyrgyzstan, and said, "Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, in his phone contact with head of Kyrgyzstan's interim government, underlined Iran's support for the people and the government of Kyrgyzstan during the early days after the interim government took power." The envoy also reminded Iran's cargo of humanitarian aids for the 
 people of the Central Asian country, and said that Tehran has also voiced its readiness to provide more financial and humanitarian aids to his country. He also pointed to the visit to Bishkek by Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Middle-East and Common Wealth Affairs Mohammad Reza Sheybani and his talks with Kyrgyz interim official, and said, "All of these steps guarantee expansion of our ties in the future." Sheybani, heading a high-ranking Iranian delegation, arrived in Bishkek on May 5 and held separate talks with the head of Kyrgyzstan's interim government Rosa Otunbayeva as well as interim Foreign Minister Ruslan Kazakbayev. During the meeting with Otunbayeva, Sheybani expressed pleasure in the restoration of peace and tranquility in the Central Asian state and regretted the loss of lives during the recent political unrests in Kyrgyzstan. He also voiced Tehran's readiness to reinvigorate cooperation between the two sides in all the various fields. Iran dispatched a car
 go of humanitarian aids to Kyrgyzstan in April following a request by the interim government of the Central Asian republic for foreign aids. The humanitarian cargo consisted of 7 tons of medicine, 13 tons of medical goods and heating instruments and devices. Large-scale anti-government protests swept Kyrgyzstan from April 6-7, claiming the lives of 90 people and leading to the overthrow of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev. (Back to top) Fars News Agency:  "Omani Shura Council speaker to visit Tehran next week"(Sun, 30 May)  Speaker of Oman's Shura Council Sheikh Ahmad bin Mohammad al-Essaei is due to pay an official visit to Iran on June 6, Iranian Ambassador to Muscat Hossein Noushabadi announced on Sunday. Speaking to FNA, Noushabadi said that al-Essaei will lead an Omani delegation in his visit to Tehran next Sunday. The visit will take place at the invitation of the Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, the envoy stated. "Members of Oman-Iran parliamentary friendship group
  and members of the Shura Council will accompany Mr. al-Essaei in his 4-day visit to the Islamic Republic of Iran," Noushabadi added. The Omani official is scheduled to meet with Larijani and other senior Iranian officials to explore avenues for bolstering parliamentary ties. Based on Oman's Constitution, the country's legislative body (Council of Oman) is made up of members of the State Council (Majlis A'Dawla) and Shura (Consultation) Council (Majlis A'Shura). It assists the government in drawing up the general policies of the state. The Council meets at the request of Sultan Qaboos, to study and discuss matters raised by him, taking all its decisions on the basis of a majority vote. Sultan Qaboos addresses all the members of this Council on an annual basis. (Back to top) Fars News Agency: "Cambodian FM to visit Iran in August"(Sun, 30 May) Cambodian Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Hor Namhong is scheduled to visit Iran in August, Iranian Ambassad
 or to Phnom Penh Seyed Javad Qavam Shahidi said on Sunday. "During the trip, the Cambodian foreign minister will meet and talk with his Iranian counterpart Manouchehr Mottaki as well as other high-ranking Iranian officials," Qavam Shahidi told FNA. He reiterated that Namhong's visit to Tehran is aimed at further activation of bilateral relations between the two countries. Meantime, an Iranian parliamentary delegation left Tehran for Phnom Penh on Saturday to discuss bilateral ties and other issues of mutual interest with Cambodian officials. "During the three-day trip, the two sides will hold discussions on inter-parliamentary relations and discuss paving the ground for developing ties and other related issues based on the Islamic Republic of Iran's view on the East Asian countries," Head of the delegation Mohsen Kouhkan told FNA. The delegation, comprising five Iranian legislators, is also due to meet with the Cambodian prime minister, foreign ministry officials, their Camb
 odian counterparts and members of some of the country's parliament commissions. Qavam Shahidi said expansion of parliamentary cooperation between the two countries, closer cooperation in the Asian Parliamentary Assembly (APA) and the two sides' cooperation in the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU) are the main goals of the Iranian delegation's trip to Phnom Penh. (Back to top) NUCLEAR ISSUE Press TV:  "Iran 'expanding enrichment work'"(Mon, 31 May)  The International Atomic Energy Agency has praised Iran's cooperation with its inspectors but voiced concern about Tehran's enrichment activities. Reuters, quoting a confidential IAEA report, said Iran has added a second set of centrifuges for higher-level uranium enrichment. Iran has told the IAEA that the extra machines, which are not yet operational, will be used for enriching uranium up to the level of 20 percent, Reuters said, citing the IAEA report. The report said Iran has allowed UN inspectors better oversight at the enrichm
 ent site but added that more cooperation was needed "in clarifying outstanding issues which give rise to concerns about possible military dimensions to its nuclear program." Several IAEA reports on Iran's nuclear program have confirmed the non-diversion of nuclear material in Iran. AFP also quoted the report as saying that Iran had produced at least 5.7 kilograms (12.5 pounds) of highly-enriched uranium for the Tehran research reactor as of early April. "On April 7 2010, Iran withdrew 5.7 kilograms of UF6 (uranium hexafluoride) from the first cascade" at its pilot fuel enrichment plant in Natanz, the IAEA report said. "According to Iran, this UF6 was enriched to 19.7 percent." Iran, a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), says it needs higher-enriched uranium for producing medical radioisotopes at the Tehran research reactor. In its latest to build confidence over its nuclear program, Iran agreed earlier in May to send about half of its low-enriched uraniu
 m to Turkey in return for fuel rods for the research reactor. However, only a day later, the five veto-wielding members of the UN Security Council -- Britain, China, France, Russia and the US -- agreed on a US-proposed draft resolution for further sanctions against Iran. (Back to top) Press TV:  "Iran denies misplacing  nuclear gear"(Sat, 29 May)  Iran has denied any knowledge of reports that inspectors from the UN nuclear watchdog were unable to reexamine certain equipment in an Iranian nuclear laboratory. Diplomats, speaking on condition of anonymity, told the Associated Press on Friday that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials were alarmed by the disappearance of the gear. "We have absolutely no knowledge of these claims," spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Ali Shirzadian told Press TV on Saturday. One of the diplomats told AP that the vanished equipment may have been part of an attempted cover-up, while another said it was too early t
 o draw conclusions, suggesting it could have been taken to another site for maintenance. The concerns revolve around allegations that the multipurpose research laboratory has conducted pyroprocessing -- a procedure that can be used to purify uranium metal used in nuclear warheads. Iran has officially rejected the claim, stressing that "there is no pyroprocessing R&amp;D activity and the question raised has been a misinterpretation by the agency inspectors." Meanwhile, senior Iranian officials said Saturday that Tehran was awaiting a response from the IAEA over the nuclear fuel swap declaration issued following talks with Turkey and Brazil. Despite the declaration whereby Iran agreed to swap its low enriched uranium on Turkish soil with fuel for its research reactor, the US and its European allies continue to claim that Tehran is pursuing a military nuclear program and are pushing for the imposition of a fourth round of UN sanctions against Iran. Tehran argues that as an IAEA mem
 ber and a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), it has the right to a civilian nuclear program. (Back to top) Fars News Agency: "Iran to load up Bushehr N. Power Plant with real fuel in Julyl"(Sat, 29 May)  A senior Iranian legislator announced that the county plans to load real fuel into its first nuclear power plant in the southern city of Bushehr in July. Speaking to FNA about the visit by Iranian parliamentarians to the Bushehr nuclear power plant, member of the parliament's (city and village) Councils and Home Security Commission Seyed Mohammad Javad Abtahi described the status quo at the Bushehr plant as "desirable". "The first circuit 250-bar and the second circuit 110-bar tests as well as the Metal Core Test have all been conducted (successfully)," Abtahi said, adding, "Other tests in relation to the fueling process will be completed by the next 3 weeks." The lawmaker stressed that the systems have not shown any faulty operation in tests, and state
 d that with the accomplishment of the tests and given the commitment of the Russian side "the real fuel will be loaded into the main connectors late in Tir (June 22-July 10) and the plant will start its formal operation subsequently. Earlier on Thursday, an Iranian official announced the plant is scheduled to receive real fuel after the termination of thermal test. Iran started the Warm Water Test in April 8 concurrent with the National Nuclear Technology Day in which the country celebrated its latest scientific achievements. In February 2010, Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) Ali Akbar Salehi told FNA that there has just remained a 'Warm Water Test' before the Bushehr power plant could launch operation. "We will inject fuel into the heart of the reactor after that (final test)," Salehi added at the time. Noting the latest operations carried out in the plant, Salehi also said that Bushehr has passed an array of tests in the last few months, and pointed ou
 t that the Metal Core Test has been the latest test accomplished by the power plant. Russia has been building the nuclear facility in Iran since 1994. The start-up of the station, originally scheduled to be completed in 1999, has been delayed on several occasions. Western corporations began the construction of the Bushehr facility in the 1970s. However, following the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, the Western companies reneged on their commitments and pulled out of the project due to political pressure from Washington. Iran then turned to Russia to complete the project. In 1992, Tehran and Moscow signed a deal to complete the construction of the nuclear power plant. (Back to top) Fars News Agency:  "Speaker warns against selective approach towards Tehran Declaration"(Sat, 29 May)  Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani stressed on Saturday that the country will play its role in the implementation of the 'Tehran Declaration' on the swap of nuclear fuel provided that all it
 s conditions are precisely met. "Selective approach towards it (the Tehran Declaration) is (a crossing of) our red line" and the document should be seen as an agreement with a give-and-take nature, Larijani told reporters in a press conference here in Tehran today, stressing that all paragraphs of the declaration should receive due attention and be implemented precisely... Larijani referred to the US opposition to the statement and the comments by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that the Tehran Declaration suffers technical problems, and said if the agreement includes any problem, the other side should state them very clearly. "Those who see problems in the recent declaration should announce them explicitly as the interests of both sides have been considered in it, "he added... (Back to top) Press TV:  "US 'taken aback by Tehran declaration'"(Mon, 31 May)  Iran's top diplomat says the US has been taken aback by Tehran's recently-issued nuclear declaration, adding that 
 Washington did not expect Brazil and Turkey to achieve such a great breakthrough on the issue. Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said on Sunday that officials in Washington estimated a mere 30 percent chance of success for talks on the nuclear fuel swap issue between Brasilia, Ankara and Tehran. Mottaki said the declaration had caused the West to go numb with shock, describing the issue as the reason behind intensive efforts in the West for the imposition of a new round of sanctions against Iran. US authorities are "adapting" themselves to the new realities on the ground which have been established due to Tehran's nuclear declaration, IRNA reported the Iranian foreign minister as saying. "We have to allow them some time to recover from the initial shock," which has been brought about by the declaration, he told reporters in Tokyo. Mottaki went on to say that the Islamic Republic were looking for more interaction with the international community over its nuclear pro
 gram. He also expressed hope that the Vienna Group -- comprising of US, France, Russia and the International Atomic Energy Agency -- would come to a "rational" decision on Iran's civilian nuclear program. (Back to top) Press TV:  "Iran awaits US response to declaration"(Sat, 29 May)  Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast says Iran is waiting for the Vienna Group's response to its letter regarding the Tehran nuclear swap declaration. Iran delivered a letter to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on May 24 in which it informed the UN body of a nuclear fuel swap declaration signed with Turkey and Brazil in Tehran. "The content and time of Iran's letter has been conveyed to the Vienna Group, and as we were learned the Americans, French and Russians are discussing the matter and will inform the agency of their response," Mehmanparast said on Saturday. When asked about allegations that the Tehran declaration does not satisfy Washington's demands, and whether the 
 US has given a formal response to the declaration Mehmanparast said "we are waiting for an official response." "The US statements made after the issuance of the declaration appeared to be somewhat hasty and they were surprised," Mehmanparast explained. He added that the declaration had created an opportunity for "interaction and cooperation" based on respect for the rights of other nations and justice. Mehmanparast said Iran expects all countries who want confrontational and destructive approach to be replaced with nuclear cooperation to back the initiative. The spokesman called on the Vienna Group to welcome this approach instead of "looking for excuses." Iran, Turkey and Brazil signed a nuclear swap declaration based on which Tehran agreed to ship 1,200 kg of its low-enriched uranium to Turkey in exchange for 120 kg of 20 percent enriched uranium for its research reactor. (Back to top) Press TV:  "'Russia, US interests clash on Iran'"(Sun, 30 May)  Former chief of staff of
  the Russian armed forces General Leonid Ivashov says supporting US policies on Iran in not in the interest of Moscow. "Russian support for Washington's policies would be contrary to Moscow's national interests with regards to relations and cooperation with Iran," Gen. Ivashov, who is also the vice president of the Academy on Geopolitical Affairs, told IRNA on Sunday. Hailing Iran as a regional power in Central Asia and the Middle East, he added "Russia must adopt an independent stance concerning Iran and its nuclear program." Iranian officials have criticized Russia for failing to "resolutely" support the nuclear declaration issued following pro-diplomacy talks with Turkey and Brazil on May 17 under which Tehran expressed readiness to swap its low enriched uranium on Turkish soil for nuclear fuel. One day after the declaration, the US accelerated efforts within the UN Security Council for the imposition of a fourth round of sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program. Washin
 gton later announced that it had cut a deal with veto-wielding UNSC members Russia and China to join its campaign. "Unfortunately, Russia is, in some issues, under US and Israeli pressure and influence, and these political gestures are not in the national interest of Russia," Ivashov stressed. The former military commander also praised the tripartite declaration as a "valuable victory for diplomacy on Iran" and urged all sides to carefully study the new proposal. (Back to top) Press TV:  "West is unfair to Iran: Erdogan"(Sun, 30 May)  Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan says that the approach the West has taken over the Tehran declaration is not fair and sincere. Speaking to the Anatolia news agency on the sidelines of the UN Alliance of Civilizations Forum in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday, Erdogan criticized Western leaders for backpedalling from conditions they had set for Iran after Turkey and Brazil secured those terms in the declaration and for their silence about 
 the undeclared nuclear arsenal of Israel. Erdogan said he and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva would maintain diplomatic efforts to gather support for the nuclear fuel swap declaration. He went on to say that he would most probably discuss the issue with US President Barack Obama during the G-20 summit in Canada next month. Erdogan hit back at US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who said on Thursday that the Brazilian-Turkish mediation effort's effect of "buying time for Iran... makes the world more dangerous, not less." "The step that we took is not one that puts the world in danger. On the contrary, it is a step to prevent attempts to put the world in danger," AFP quoted Erdogan as saying. "We have said it from the very beginning -- we do not want nuclear weapons in our region," he added. Press TV: "'Tehran Declaration key move'"(Mon, 31 May)  Iran and Brazil have described the Tehran Declaration as a great and significant move, highlighting consultations s
 hould continue until a final result is achieved. In a phone conversation with his Brazilian counterpart Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmdenejad said the declaration has turned into a yardstick in international relations to promote peace, friendship and brotherhood, reported IRNA. "The Tehran Declaration was the commencement of a move toward world peace, security and justice", said President Ahmadinejad, adding Tehran and Brasilia should continue to work together closely on that path. President Ahmadinejad underlined Iran and Brazil can adopt 'appropriate and constructive' measures which would serve the interests of their own as well as other nations. The Brazilian president, in turn, assured his opposite number of Brazil's full backing. (Back to top) Fars News Agency: "Senior Japanese lawmaker underlines Iran's nuclear rights"(Mon, 31 May)  Head of Japan-Iran Friendship Group Masahiko Komura in a meeting with visiting Iranian Foreign Minister Manouche
 hr Mottaki in Tokyo stressed the right of all signatories to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to acquire and use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. Komura reiterated that none of the members of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is entitled to deprive other members of their rights. He further voiced support for the Tehran Declaration on the swap of nuclear fuel between Iran and potential suppliers via Turkey. (Back to top) Press TV:  "'More sanctions counterproductive'"(Sat, 29 May)  Iran's foreign minister has announced that the country expects the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and world powers to respond positively to the Tehran Declaration. "Further UN Security Council sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program will be counterproductive", Manouchehr Mottaki was quoted by ISNA as telling reporters in the Bulgarian capital of Sofia. Mottaki said he believes the Vienna group (comprising the IAEA, the US, France and Russia) is studying the
  Tehran Declaration mediated by Turkey and Brazil in a positive manner. "I think as soon as IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano receives the responses, negotiations will begin", the top visiting Iranian diplomat further stated. He underscored Tehran is still waiting for the UN nuclear watchdog, the United States, Russia and France to respond to its proposals. "We have not received any signs suggesting the agreement would not be accepted", Mottaki added. He said Iran prefers to look at the issue optimistically and positively. Mottaki reiterated that further UN sanctions against Iran will be a nonstarter, adding use of sanctions is a failed policy. The Iranian foreign minister also sat down with his Bulgarian opposite number Nikolay Mladenov where the two men took up a host of issues, including mutual cooperation as well as the Tehran Declaration. (Back to top) Press TV: "'Nuclear weapons states are hypocrites'"(Sat, 29 May)  A former advisor to the EU foreign policy chief says
  that when US officials talk about making the Middle East a nuclear weapons-free zone, they basically mean Iran rather than Israel. In an interview with Press TV on Saturday, Alastair Crooke said that nuclear weapons states are showing great hypocrisy when it comes to the issue of Israel's nuclear arsenal and the fact that certain countries that have not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty possess nuclear weapons. "In Pakistan and in India and in Israel, in all of those cases it has been responded to by the West by further assistance, by further trade agreements, indeed, technological help with their nuclear programs," he said. He added that the United States "is giving assurances in advance to Israel that there can be no ending to the ambiguity in Israel's policy or change in the American policy towards Israel." (Back to top) Press TV:  "Iran sanctions veto 'saves Russia face'"(Sat, 29 May)  Iranian lawmakers have criticized neighboring Russia over Moscow's stance t
 owards Tehran's nuclear declaration and the US-pursued sanctions against Iran. Spokesman for the Iranian Parliament's (Majlis) National Security and Foreign Policy Commission Kazem Jalali said Moscow was under the same "analytical misconception" as the US in believing Iran would never accept the fuel swap proposal. "Russia can be effective in rejecting the (sanctions) resolution, and can save face internationally through a positive response to Iran's letter to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)," Jalali added. He went on to criticized the Kremlin's double standard in urging Iran to commit to the fuel swap negotiations with Turkey and Brazil while supporting the US campaign for anti-Tehran sanctions. Iran's nuclear fuel swap declaration made its more difficult for the Russians "to correct their stance, as they had already traded on the issue," Jalali said. "Russia believed their friendship games (with Iran) would acquire international legitimacy." Speaking at a pre
 ss conference on Saturday, Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani also urged Russia to abandon its policy of "self-interest" over Iran's nuclear program. "We must consider these issues more carefully as Iran and Russia have common interests, and if the approach agreed on with the former Russian president (Vladimir Putin) had been pursued, it could have served the interests of both sides," Larijani told reporters. "Concerning nuclear issues, Russia has always sought to fit things within the frame of its own interests, and efforts must be made to return this approach to its precise path," he added. The remarks echoed similar comments by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who cautioned Moscow last week that its recent moves had cast doubt on its status as a friendly neighbor. (Back to top) Press TV:  "NPT decision on Israel 'a step forward'"(Sat, 29 May)  Iran's ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency has hailed a UN nuclear non-proliferation document calling on Israel to
  open its undeclared atomic facilities to international inspection. "It is a step forward in creating a world without atomic weapons," Iran's Ambassador to the IAEA Ali Asghar Soltanieh told IRNA on Saturday. Soltanieh went further to explain that the United States, despite its opposition to the NPT deal on Israel, would have to fall in line with other members of the international community. "The US reservation is only political sloganeering and it is obliged to go along with the global request that Israel join the NPT and open its installations to IAEA inspectors," he added. The accord was agreed upon by all 189 members of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty at the 2010 review conference in New York on Friday. The NPT members commit to holding a regional gathering in 2012 to create a Middle East free of nuclear weapons and mention "the importance of Israel's accession to the treaty and the placement of all its nuclear facilities under comprehensive IAEA safeguards." On Fri
 day, US President Barack Obama "strongly" opposed singling out Israel over talks on a nuclear weapons-free Middle East. "We strongly oppose efforts to single out Israel, and will oppose actions that jeopardize Israel's national security," President Obama said. "The greatest threat to proliferation in the Middle East, and to the NPT, is Iran's failure to live up to its NPT obligations." Soltanieh reacted to the US stance, saying it was only natural for the US president to take such a position. "Of course this was to be expected, since (US Secretary of State) Hillary Clinton made such remarks during the inaugural session (of the NPT meeting) and several times later," Soltanieh said. "The Americans are isolating themselves through such measure since Iran's nuclear file is an issue related to the IAEA. This conference was about the NPT and its future," the Iranian official concluded. (Back to top) Fars News Agency: "Iran in doubt about 2012 conference on nuclear free Middle East
 "(Sat, 29 May)  Iran on Saturday announced its reservations about a conference in 2012 on the establishment of a nuclear-free Middle-East, saying that such meetings are futile as long as Israel possesses hundreds of nuclear warheads and denies international calls for its membership in international treaties. The Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference approved a document on the last day for holding a conference in 2012 "on the establishment of a Middle East free from all weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), including nuclear weapons". Upon the approval of the document, the Iranian delegation headed by Tehran's Representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Ali Asqar Soltaniyeh in an address to the participants described possession of atomic weapons by Israel as the main obstacle in the way of peace and security in the region and establishment of a WMD-free Middle East. Noting that the Zionist regime's membership in the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) 
 is one of the main prerequisites for the establishment of a nuclear-weapons-free region, the Iranian delegation officially announced its reservations about the Review Conference's decision for holding a conference on WMD and nuclear-free Middle-East in 2012. Reminding the United States' unfair and double-standard policies on nuclear non-proliferation and Washington's support for Israel as an impediment to the successfulness of such conference, the Iranian delegation lamented that although paragraphs of the document which urge Israel to join the NPT lack a specified timetable and necessary measures to oblige the regime to annihilate its nuclear warheads, the US still opposes the text and a mention of Israel's name in it. In reference to Israel, the document "calls on all states in the Middle East that have not yet done so to accede to the treaty as non-nuclear weapon states so as to achieve its universality at an early date". (Back to top) Mehr News Agency:  "MP offers reduci
 ng ties with China, Russia if sanctions approved"(Sun, 30 May)  Reducing relations with China and Russia will be necessary in all fields if they vote for a new sanctions resolution against Iran, a lawmaker suggested on Sunday. However, Heshmatollah Falahatpishe, the member of the Parliament National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said Iran should use all its attempts "not to let a new resolution be ratified in the Security Council." But if a resolution is approved "we must be ready to deal with it," Falahatpishe told the Mehr News Agency. (Back to top) ECONOMY/ENERGY Press TV:  "Iran, Pakistan finalize gas deal"(Sat, 29 May)  and Pakistan have finalized a deal for the construction of a pipeline to pump Iranian natural gas to the South Asian country. The $7.5bn contract has brought a sense of relief to energy-starved Pakistan, reported Press TV correspondent Javed Rana from Islamabad. "This is a really historic achievement for Pakistan because we have signed an agreem
 ent, final agreement ... for importing ... one billion cubic feet (of gas)", Irshad Karimi with the Pakistani Petroleum and Gas Ministry told our correspondent. "We are presently producing and consuming around 4.2 billion cubic feet; that means 25% of it will be imported from Iran", added the Pakistani official. The December 2014 is the deadline to complete the pipeline project, added Press TV's correspondent. "And normally this kind of pipeline is going to take between three to four years because the length of the pipeline inside Pakistan is around 900km. It depends ... but it is possible to do it in around 30 months", Head of Iran's National Gas Company Reza Kassaeizaded told Press TV's correspondent. India opted to withdraw from the project apparently under US pressure, our correspondent added. However, the agreement kept the option open of India joining the project at a later stage. (Back to top) Fars News Agency:  "Envoy: Iran ready to export gas to Pakistan"(Sun, 30 Ma
 y)  A senior Iranian diplomat on Sunday voiced Tehran's preparedness to export natural gas and electricity to the neighboring Pakistan as soon as Islamabad expresses preparedness. "We are ready to supply it (natural gas) whenever Pakistan is ready to receive it," Iran's Ambassador to Pakistan Mashallah Shakeri said in an interview with FNA today. "Given Pakistan's acute need to durable, new and clean energy resources we hope to witness exports of gas to the country within the next 4 or 5 year," Shakeri said, adding that Iran has continued construction of the pipeline on its soil and already stretched the line to an area 250 km from the Iran-Pakistan border. The comment by the Iranian envoy came after Pakistan and Iran on Friday signed a "sovereign guarantee" agreement paving the way for the completion of a 7.5-billion-dollar gas pipeline project within the next four years. Regarding supply of electricity to Pakistan, the Iranian envoy said, "We still believe that Iran is the
  best country for export of electricity to Pakistan, and we will start supplying electricity to the country whenever Pakistan prepares the needed infrastructures and voices readiness for starting imports." The 2700-kilometer long pipeline was to supply gas for Pakistan and India which are suffering a lack of energy sources, but India has evaded talks. Last year Iran and Pakistan declared they would finalize the agreement bilaterally if India continued to be absent in the meetings. In a major breakthrough on March 20, 2009, the Pakistani government approved Iran's proposed pricing formula for gas supplies to the South Asian nation. And eventually, Tehran and Islamabad signed a final agreement in March 2010 to launch implementation of the project for exporting Iran's rich gas reserves to the energy-hungry south-Asian nation. According to the project proposal, the pipeline will begin from Iran's Assalouyeh Energy Zone in the south and stretch over 1,100 km through Iran. In Paki
 stan, it will pass through Baluchistan and Sindh but officials now say the route may be changed if China agrees to the project. The gas will be supplied from the South Pars field. The initial capacity of the pipeline will be 22 billion cubic meters of natural gas per annum, which is expected to be later raised to 55 billion cubic meters. (Back to top) Fars News Agency:  "Iran-Pakistan joint economic commission due to meet in mid-summer"(Sun, 30 May)  The 18th meeting of Iran-Pakistan joint economic commission is slated to be held in Islamabad in mid-summer this year, an Iranian diplomat announced on Sunday. "Based on agreements, the meeting is scheduled to be held in Islamabad in Mordad (July 23-August 22)," Iran's Ambassador to Islamabad Mashallah Shakeri told FNA. The envoy declined to offer the exact date of the meeting, but said that Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki and Pakistani Minister of Finance and Economic Affairs will jointly head the commission meeting
 . The commission will discuss providing the two countries' businessmen with trade facilities, including establishing the two countries' joint commerce council, and setting up and activating border markets. Shakeri further mentioned that the commission will discuss execution of macro-scale economic projects by the two neighboring states specially in energy, gas, electricity and transportation sectors. The ambassador also stated that Pakistan's Deputy Foreign Minister Haroon Shaukat is scheduled to visit Tehran in June to discuss an upcoming tripartite summit of Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan. (Back to top) Press TV:  "Iran orders six LNG tankers from China"(Sun, 30 May)  Iran has ordered six tankers worth $1.2 billion from China for exporting the liquefied natural gas (LNG) it produces in the country's gas fields. Mohammad Souri, managing director of the National Iranian Tanker Co, said on Sunday Iran had decided to replace its usual tanker supplier, South Korea, with China s
 ince Chinese-built tankers were less costly while having the same quality, Fars News Agency reported. "Each tanker is estimated to cost $200-220 million which means we need $1.2 billion to order six tankers," Souri said, adding that Iran would be able to begin LNG exports by the end of the next Iranian calendar year (March 2012). Iran sits on huge gas reserves but does not yet produce LNG as its oil and gas industry has not been fully developed due to Western sa (Back to top) Mehr News Agency: "Iran sees $200 billion in trade with China in 1- years: ambassador"(Sun, 30 May)  Iran's new ambassador to China has predicted that bilateral relations between the two countries will expand greatly in the future.  Upon his arrival in Beijing on Sunday, Ambassador Mahdi Safari said, "(We) plan to dramatically increase the level of ties between the two countries in the next few years."  It is expected that Iran-China trade will rise to $200 billion from the current level of $30 billion 
 in the next ten years, the veteran diplomat a

-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T06:14:12Z --------------------
Title: OSC will publish this product through November 2010 to summarize selected media coverage of international preparations for the G20 Summit to held in Seoul, Korea during 11-12 November.
Journal: International -- OSC Report
Text:
This OSC product is based exclusively on the content and behavior of selected media and has not been coordinated with other US Government components.Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International EconomicInternational PoliticalLeaderMilitaryTerrorism,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONSIP
City: 
Geographic Code: BRA,CAN,CHN,FRA,DEU,MEX,RUS,KOR,GBR,USA
Geographic Name: Brazil,Canada,China,France,Germany,Mexico,Russia,South Korea,United Kingdom,United States,Americas,Asia,Europe,Eurasia,South Americas,North Americas,East Asia,South Europe,North Europe,SOUTH KOREA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,G7IP
Region: Americas,Asia,Europe,Eurasia






-------------------- Wednesday June 2, 2010 T04:56:18Z --------------------
Title: Updated version; rewording headline, attaching the vernacular full-text of the Rodong Sinmun list of articles for the corresponding date -- as available from the KCNA in Korean feed -- in PDF format; KCNA headline: "Press Review"
Journal: KCNA
Text:
(Description of Source: Pyongyang KCNA in English -- Official DPRK news agency. URL: http://www.kcna.co.jp)Attachments:kcna0602.pdfMaterial in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: LeaderDissentInternational PoliticalInternational Economic
City: Pyongyang
Geographic Code: CHN,IRN,ISR,JPN,KOR,SDN,SYR,THA,USA,PRK
Geographic Name: China,Iran,Israel,Japan,South Korea,Sudan,Syria,Thailand,United States,North Korea,Asia,Middle East,Africa,Americas,East Asia,South East Asia,Central Africa,North Americas,INDO CHINA,THAILAND,SOUTH KOREA,SOUTHEAST ASIA,NORTH KOREA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIAIP
Region: Asia,Middle East,Africa,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T11:43:52Z --------------------
Title: India-US Education Initiative: Difference Emerge Over Implementation of Project
Journal: The Telegraph Online
Text:
(Description of Source: Kolkata The Telegraph online in English -- Website of Kolkata's highest circulation English daily, owned by ABP Group, with a flagship publication Anandabazar Patrika in Bengali. Known for in-depth coverage of east and northeast India issues, and India-Bangladesh relations. Maintains an impartial editorial policy. Circulation 457,100; URL: www.telegraphindia.com)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International EconomicInternational PoliticalLeader,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Kolkata
Geographic Code: IND,USA
Geographic Name: India,United States,Asia,Americas,South Asia,North Americas,EAST AFRICA,NORTH AMERICA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,SUDAN,AFRICA,ARAB STATES,SOUTHERN ASIA,INDIAN SUBCONTINENT,INDIAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T10:25:44Z --------------------
Title: Highlights: Sudanese Media Assail US, Western, Arab Reaction to Israeli Attack
Journal: Sudan -- OSC Summary
Text:
concrete Arab measures in retaliation for the Israeli attack on the Freedom Flotilla which they described as a great setback for US President Obama in particular.Rashid Abd-al-Rahim wrote in the privately-owned newspaper Al-R'ay al-Amm that the US reaction to what happened shows that the United States "remains submissive and subjugated to Israel, for it is a big power that is threatened from within by the clear and strong Zionist financial and media clout.""US President Obama is the major setback in this shameful incident," he said. "The change slogan adopted by President Obama in his election campaign has been shattered by Israeli racism, and of course it has been shattered in the minds and hearts that were jubilant and regarded the victory of this man as a shift in the world's biggest nation toward a world in which justice and human rights prevail."The columnist said that what happened "shows clearly the inability of the United States and how important it is to break free f
 rom this situation in which Israel controls the United States and the world."The same line was echoed in another commentary in Al-Ra'y al-Amm by Muhammad Abd-al-Qadir. "The United States was silent and God did not inspire its colluding President to say one word about his personal opinion. The British Government's reaction was not commensurate with the horrible nature of the crime committed by the spoiled Tel Aviv, while international organizations remained as always weak and miserable and conspiring with Israel."The columnist said that the weakest response of all was that of the Arab countries themselves. "But there is an important gain in this incident, namely that it has restored Turkey which we missed a lot to the forefront of Arab and Islamic issues, to the bosom of the resistance. It withdrew its ambassador, cancelled military maneuvers with Israel, and joined with Lebanon in filing a complaint. So let the Arabs congratulate themselves in the meantime on their statement
 s of condemnation and denunciation."The yearnings of the Arab peoples and all peace-loving peoples must transcend the Quartet and international settlements and focus on the necessity of halting normalization and negotiations with this brutal entity. We must exploit what happened to move toward trying the Israeli criminals who have placed the world by this action of theirs into two camps, either justice or injustice. The unjust shall be punished."The pro-Arab newspaper Al-Intibaha wrote in a commentary that "silence and collusion on the part of some big countries like the United States and the European countries is unacceptable. Any one who maintains silence on this crime is a participant, and any one who provides political cover for it contributes to it."This crime reveals that the weakness of Arab governments and their scramble for peace is what tempted the Zionist entity to defy everybody and wade into blood as it did yesterday in the Mediterranean. The Hebrew State has fa
 iled morally and politically by appearing yesterday as an unjust and cowardly oppressor that fears a few hundred of civilian peace activists. This is a stigma that will haunt that State, and this ethical blunder is a curse that will haunt Israel's leaders and army forever. This is because the world has become more convinced that this destructive cancer is the biggest disgrace for humanity and that its existence is against the values of mankind, religions, and laws."The commentary concluded: "The real dilemma is that of the official Arab regimes that have limited themselves to weak condemnations and shy denunciations. But the Arab masses will accept nothing less than vengeance and seeing the skies of the Arab capitals cleaned from the vile presence of the Israeli flag that flutters in s ome of them."In the privately-owned newspaper Al-Akhbar, columnist Faisal Muhammad Salih wrote that "Israel places the world once again before its responsibilities and puts it for the hundredt
 h time to the test of humanitarian values and principles. But as usual the world fails in the test because of dual standards and because it considers Palestinian blood as cheap blood." The commentary said Israel attacked the flotilla "to scare off any one who thinks of repeating this act and it does this feeling safe from any international action as long as it remains under the US sponsorship and protection." The commentary warned that "the world should be ashamed of itself ... and the ultimate outcome in such a world will be the birth of generations suffering from split personality. Such acts threaten the peace of the whole world. There will be angry and vehement groups that reach the conclusion there is no use in international institutions, treaties and laws and that it would be better for them to take the law in their hands."In the privately-owned pro-government newspaper Akhir Lahzah, an editorial by the chief editor said that "what happened yesterday is a scandal, an in
 human massacre, so we expect the Arabs to freeze their talks about peace with Israel. We expect that the people will take to the streets to denounce what happened and awaken the governments. We shall not settle for statements of condemnation or anything of the sort. There has to be confrontation and painful blows."Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational Political,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONSIP
City: 
Geographic Code: SDN,ISR,TUR,USA
Geographic Name: Sudan,Israel,Turkey,United States,Africa,Middle East,Europe,Americas,Central Africa,South Europe,North Americas,AFRICA,SUDAN,MEDITERRANEAN,ARAB STATES,MIDDLE EAST,EAST AFRICA,NORTH AMERICA,AMERICAS,ISRAEL,USAIP
Region: Africa,Middle East,Europe,Americas






-------------------- Wednesday June 2, 2010 T03:16:54Z --------------------
Title: Report attributed to Antara news agency: "SBY Brings Israeli Attack up with Obama"
Journal: KOMPAS.com
Text:
JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is to take up the Israeli attack on the Freedom Flitilla early on Monday at his meeting with President Barack Obama when the latter visits Jakarta later this month, a presidential spokesman said.Presidential spokesman for international affairs Dino Patti Djalal said at a press conference at the presidential office here on Tuesday, President Yudhoyono wished to raise the issue in the meeting with  US President Obama because he was very concerned about  the prospects of the peace process in the Middle East which was now  being revived through the proximity talks involving western countries."The problem will be one of the issues to be discussed by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and President Obama," he said.Dino said the Israeli attack on the convoy of ships bringing humanitarian aid supplies to Gaza with activists from 50 countries on board would be a factual issue for discussion with President Obama because in a meet
 ing with President Mahmoud Abbas here last week President Yudhoyono had discussed the US position in the peace process to be undertaken. He said the United Nations Security Council had already held an emergency meeting to discuss the incident and had also issued a statement condemning it."The UN Security Council has also asked for a direct investigation into the case," he said.Dino said President Yudhoyono was quite satisfied with the UN's statement and called for the immediate release of volunteers and aid ships now being held by  Israel. He said the UN Human Rights Commission had also agreed to hold  an urgent debate to discuss the Israeli raid on the aid ships convoy."Indonesia represented by its UN ambassador in Geneva has pushed for the debate, supported by Egypt and members of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC)," he said.The debate scheduled to be held at 3pm local time in Geneva on Tuesday is expected to push the issuance of a resolution from the UN Huma
 n Rights Commission."It happens rarely that countries in many  corners of the world issue calls with the same message," he said.At a meeting between ASEAN and the Gulf Countries Cooporation (GCC) attended by Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa,  ASEAN   and  Gulf countries had also issued a joint statement condemning the Israeli action, Dino said.(Description of Source: Jakarta KOMPAS.com in English -- English-language website of Indonesia's largest and well-respected national daily newspaper known for credible and independent reporting; read by the middle and upper classes with an estimated daily circulation of 509,000 on weekdays and 800,000 on weekends. URL: http://www.kompas.com)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalLeader,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONSIP
City: Jakarta
Geographic Code: IDN,USA,ISR,GZ
Geographic Name: Indonesia,United States,Israel,Gaza Strip,Asia,Americas,Middle East,South East Asia,North Americas,CENTRAL EUROPE,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,EUROPE,SOUTHEAST ASIA,MIDDLE EAST,INDONESIA,WESTERN EUROPE,SWITZERLAND,ISRAEL,PALESTINE,ASEANIP
Region: Asia,Americas,Middle East






-------------------- Wednesday June 2, 2010 T04:48:44Z --------------------
Title: Xinhua "Profile": "Outgoing Japanese PM Yukio Hatoyama"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
BEIJING, June 2 (Xinhua) -- Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama announced Wednesday his decision to resign, making him the fourth Japanese prime minister to step down in four years.Hatoyama was born in Tokyo on February 11, 1947. He graduated from the engineering science department of Tokyo University in 1969 and earned a doctor's degree in engineering science at Stanford University in 1976.Hatoyama was born to a political family: his great-grandfather Kazuo Hatoyama was a member of the House of Representatives, his grandfather is former Prime Minister Ichiro Hatoyama, his father former Foreign Minister Iichiro Hatoyama and his brother, Kunio, was minister of internal affairs and communications until June of last year.Hatoyama started his political life in 1986 as a member of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which ruled Japan from 1955 to 2009, but left to help form the conservative reformist New Party Sakigake in 1993. Sakigake, however, had a short life, and Hatoyama 
 left the party in 1996. He helped form the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), which was launched in 1998.The DPJ, which in its early years included influential politicians such as Naoto Kan and former Prime Minister Tsutomu Hata, grew over the next few years, and with it, so did Hatoyama's stature.Hatoyama was leader of the DPJ from 1999 to 2002, but was forced to step down over his involvement in merger talks with Ichiro Ozawa, leader of the Liberal Party.After a few years in the political wilderness, Hatoyama was appointed secretary general of the DPJ in September 2005, a post he kept until he took over as leader in May 2009 after winning a contest with the party's Vice President Katsuya Okada.After Hatoyama became president of the party, the DPJ's approval ratings increased, while approval for the LDP continued to plummet.On August 30, 2009, the DPJ won a landslide victory in general elections, ending the LDP's unbroken rule of more than half a century.On September 16, 2009
 , as leader of the DPJ, Hatoyama was procedurally elected prime minister in parliamentary voting.As prime minister, Hatoyama aimed to improve people's living standards by increasing investment in welfare projects. On security and diplomatic affairs, he opposed excessive reliance on the United States and stressed the importance of developing relations with Asian countries.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic EconomicDomestic PoliticalInternational EconomicInternational Political,GOVERNMENT,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRSIP
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: JPN,USA
Geographic Name: Japan,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,JAPANIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Wednesday June 2, 2010 T04:39:10Z --------------------
Title: Greek Paper Argues Obama Continues Bush's Hard-line Foreign Policy, Tactics
Journal: I Kathimerini
Text:
The extensive document underlines the commitment of the White House "to maintain the military superiority" of the United States.  Despite the fact that there is no specific reference to "preventive strikes", the essence of the principal "innovation" in question of Bush's staff survives in phrases like:  "While we recognize that violence is sometimes necessary, we will exhaust as much as possible the other choices before resorting to war".  Or:  "The United States must retain the right to act, if necessary, unilaterally to defend the nation and its interests".The hardening of the policy of Obama is not limited to only proclamations, as indicated by the parallel crises in North Korea and Iran --according to Bush, two members of the Axis of Evil.  In the first case, Washington and Seoul claim that it was Pyongyang that started the wrongful actions with the sinking of the warship of South Korea --a version which North Korea denies, while China refuses to confirm it.  What is cert
 ain is that in the political arena, the closed regime of Pyongyang is on the defensive and its opponents on the attack.  Food shortages and the black market, problems cultivated by the international embargo, led the regime to proceed with tentative openings to the market economy and foreign capital, while the western press present enigmatic leader of the country Kim Jong Il as ready to accept the presence of US troops in the South, even in the event of an agreed reunification.On the contrary, President of South Korea Lee Myung-bak openly said that the time has come for regime change in the North;  a view that appears to be shared by columnists of reliable US newspapers also.  Meanwhile, Washington is taking advantage of the crisis to cause problems to China, a traditional ally of North Korea, from whose collapse the emerging giant has much to lose.  The Wall Street Journal did not conceal, in a comprehensive report of last Wednesday (26 May), its feelings of delight, noting 
 that the crisis has brought Japan under the protective wings of the US eagle and urged Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama to extend the operation of the US military base on the island of Okinawa, in spite of his pre-election commitments to doing the opposite.The US policy against Iran appears more aggressive.  Instead of welcoming --even as a first step-- the agreement on the nuclear program of Tehran, which was realized through the mediation of Erdogan and Lula, the Obama administration rushed to make things worse by insisting on sanctions.  Even a prominent columnist of the New York Times like Roger Cohen admitted that "the United States is moving the goalposts", adding new conditions to torpedo the agreement.Concern over developments in Iran was strengthened by the disclosure that US General David Petraeus ordered the expansion of intelligence operations of the US Army in countries of the Middle East.  Especially in the case of Iran, the plans include espionage in the
  light of possible military strikes and the strengthening of dissident organizations.  One last thing, which was neglected by the Greek media, concerns the recent resignation of the top commander of the 16 secret services of the United States, National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair.  As was revealed in the New York Times, one of the reasons that brought Blair into conflict with his political superiors was his intention to stop (of course, on a reciprocal basis) spying against . . . France!  The obvious moral is that Bush and Rumsfeld are gone, however the dividing line between the "new" and "old" Europe will probably be erased very slowly in the minds of their successors.(Description of Source: Athens I Kathimerini in Greek -- Influential independent daily)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalLeader
City: Athens
Geographic Code: GRC,AFG,CHN,FRA,IRN,IRQ,JPN,PRK,KOR,USA
Geographic Name: Greece,Afghanistan,China,France,Iran,Iraq,Japan,North Korea,South Korea,United States,Europe,Asia,Middle East,Americas,Balkans,South Europe,South Asia,East Asia,North Americas,GREECE,WESTERN ASIA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,SOUTHERN EUROPE,SOUTH KOREA,EUROPE,MIDDLE EAST,NORTH KOREA,GULF STATES,IRAN,WESTERN EUROPE,JAPANIP
Region: Europe,Asia,Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Wednesday June 2, 2010 T04:34:38Z --------------------
Title: Original headline: "Seoul, Washington Seek to Cut Off Cash Flow to N Korea"
Journal: Chosun Ilbo Online
Text:
(Description of Source: Seoul Chosun Ilbo Online in English -- English website carrying English summaries and full translations of vernacular hard copy items of the largest and oldest daily Chosun Ilbo, which is conservative in editorial orientation -- strongly nationalistic, anti-North Korea, and generally pro-US; URL: http://english.chosun.com)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: ProliferationInternational PoliticalInternational EconomicNarcoticsMilitary,INTERNATIONAL ISSUES,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Seoul
Geographic Code: CHN,JPN,PRK,RUS,KOR,USA
Geographic Name: China,Japan,North Korea,Russia,South Korea,United States,Asia,Eurasia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,RUSSIA,USSR,AMERICAS,ASIA,SOUTH KOREA,EUROPE,NORTH KOREA,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Asia,Eurasia,Americas






-------------------- Wednesday June 2, 2010 T03:55:48Z --------------------
Title: "Ocean View Tower" article by Huang Jing, senior editor: "Assessment of the New US National Security Strategy"
Journal: Renmin Ribao (Overseas Edition) Online
Text:
In fact, changes in any national strategy are the products shaped by the situations. The national security strategy of the Bush administration had fallen into an unfeasible dilemma in Iraq, Afghanistan and many places in the world. Obama came to power by singing a different tune to that of Bush, and "making a break" with the former administration was inherently implied. In addition, the global financial crisis which started in 2008 has exposed the weaknesses of the economies of developed countries like the United States. The new US national security strategy has had to face this new reality.Compared with the national strategy of Bush, the new report is much much more realistic, manifested primarily in the following aspects:It recognizes that the "imperial burden of the United States is too heavy." Obama said: The burden of the 21st century cannot "fall only on the shoulders of Americans," as the rivals of the United States "are happy to see the United States' vitality sapped 
 because its forces are overstretched." Facts have shown that the United States' ability to resolve regional political, cultural and other problems through the use of military force is quite limited and is not match for those of the colonial power of the past years, Britain.In view of this, Obama believed that global cooperation and partnership relationship would be the foundation for shaping the new world order. A new international order should be used to deal with challenges such as violent extremism, nuclear proliferation and nuclear security, climate change, global economic growth, and others. Compared with the unilateral and conceited US idealism of Bush, Obama has adopted a multilateral, relatively humble international idealistic position. However, the international community of today is still one with nation states as the main entities, and dialogues and cooperation between them is still a process of game-playing and bartering over interests. It now depends on whether 
 the United States has sufficient patience and the magnanimity to make interest concessions.Obama believed: Economic success of the United States is the source of US influence. In this report, he described promotion of US economic growth and reversal of the US fiscal chaos as major issues related to the national security of the United States. He has thus established the reduction of fiscal deficits as the urgent task at the moment. It should be said that this is an outlook that goes beyond the narrow "security" vision. Looking at the current situation, contradiction exists between economic growth and fiscal tightening, and it is difficult to grasp the policy options between the two dilemmas.Obama rejected the "war on terror" terminology of Bush and gave a new definition to "terrorism, saying that terrorism is not the "enemy" but a kind of "tactic." The report also brought to light violent extremism on US soil. The past history of the United States has shown: Violent terrorism
  appears not only in the religions and cultures which are different from the US mainstream culture, it also appears at different levels in US mainstream culture. This is a social issue as well as a major hidden security woe of the United States.Obama has called strongly for "the expansion of the scope of responsible states." Reportedly, he is inclined toward replacing the Group of Eight with the Group of 20 which includes China, India and Brazil and has admitted this fact. It should be said that this is a realistic recognition of the evolution of the international pattern, as well as a necessity for the United States in its search for partners in order to shape the new world order. For newly emerging states, they admittedly will inevitably have to assure more international responsibilities. On the other hand, they will also unavoidably press for their own interest demands. Balancing the relationship between these two aspects is not easy. The world of the future may likely fa
 ce more numerous and more subtle political game playing and wrangling.The new US national security strategy has led to some criticisms within the United States, where some people believed that this new strategy did not fully demonstrate the "unparalleled role" of the United States. The days when the United States is the "world's big boss" may be numbered, but this kind of awareness is deep-seated and it is very difficult for arrogant people to refrain from being arrogant. Therefore, the implementation of Obama's new national security strategy will still have to endure continuing consultations within the domestic politics of the United States.(Description of Source: Beijing Renmin Ribao (Overseas Edition) Online in Chinese -- Online version of the daily newspaper (People's Daily Overseas Edition) of the CPC Central Committee targeting overseas Chinese audiences. URL: http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrbhwb)Attachments:rroe0601us.pdfMaterial in the World News Connection is generall
 y copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International Political
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,NORTH AMERICA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Wednesday June 2, 2010 T01:50:07Z --------------------
Title: Xinhua: "Confucius Institute Launched in University of Chicago To Support Research on China"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
CHICAGO, June 1 (Xinhua) -- As part of its ongoing commitment to research on China, the University of Chicago, in collaboration with the Chinese Language Council International and Renmin University, announced on Tuesday to establish a Confucius Institute on its campus in Hyde Park.The Confucius Institute will support a broad program of research on China, supporting the work of faculty, graduate students and undergraduates, in addition to language teaching, teacher training and study abroad.The new Confucius Institute at the University of Chicago was launched on the recommendation of the University's Committee on Chinese Studies, a part of the Center for East Asian Studies, which voted in its spring 2009 meeting to encourage the creation of a program that would go beyond language studies to support research on China. The initial agreement, signed last fall, is for a period of five years."China's extraordinary transformation and growth on the world stage make this a crucial tim
 e to intellectually engage and understand the nation and its development," said Dali Yang, Director of the Center of East Asian Studies and Professor in Political Science and the College, who was selected to serve as the Institute's faculty director."The Confucius Institute will provide one more important channel through which the University supports a wide range of research on China," added Yang.Ji Baocheng, the President of Renmin University of China, told Xinhua that the famous university has launched one dozen of Confucius Institutes all over the world."I am just going to Columbia University to talk about another Confucius University," said Ji in an interview with Xinhua.As of November 2009, there were 282 Confucius Institutes and 272 Confucius Classrooms in 88 countries and regions. In the United States, there are more than 80 Confucius Institutes in all.Funding for the Institute will be provided by the Chinese Language Council International,also known as Hanban, affili
 ated with the Chinese Ministry of Education and supporting Confucius Institutes around the world. Yang said that programs could begin in earnest in fall 2010.Robert J. Zimmer, the President of University of Chicago, and Yang Guoqiang, the Consul General of the People's Republic of China in Chicago, were in attendance.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International EconomicDomestic Economic
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,ILLINOIS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Wednesday June 2, 2010 T01:22:45Z --------------------
Title: A viewpoint column by Bae Myung-bok, editorial writer of the JoongAng Ilbo: "[Viewpoint] Make The West Coast a Sea of Peace"
Journal: JoongAng Daily Online
Text:
(Description of Source: Seoul JoongAng Daily Online in English -- Website of English-language daily which provides English-language summaries and full-texts of items published by the major center-right daily JoongAng Ilbo, as well as unique reportage; distributed as an insert to the Seoul edition of the International Herald Tribune; URL: http://joongangdaily.joins.com)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: LeaderMilitaryInternational PoliticalInternational Economic,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Seoul
Geographic Code: CHN,JPN,PRK,KOR,USA
Geographic Name: China,Japan,North Korea,South Korea,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,SOUTH KOREA,NORTH KOREAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Wednesday June 2, 2010 T01:06:34Z --------------------
Title: ROK Daily: Trade Surplus Hits Six-Month, Post-Recession High
Journal: JoongAng Daily Online
Text:
(JOONGANG ILBO) - Despite the European fiscal crisis and heightened tensions on the peninsula, South Korea posted a six-month record trade surplus in May, according to the Ministry of Knowledge Economy yesterday.The latest surplus, over $4.0 billion for the second consecutive month, combined with a sharp rise in both exports and imports, led the ministry to conclude that recession-driven surpluses, caused by a bigger decline in imports than exports, are now over.In a release, the ministry said the trade surplus in May stood at $4.37 billion, the highest since $4.46 billion posted in November of last year. It is the fourth straight month that trade remained in the black, including April's $4.06 billion surplus.Exports last month jumped 41.9 percent from the same month in the previous year to $39.49 billion, while imports increased 50 percent to $35.12 billion.Exports last month were slightly higher than April's $39.43 billion, despite May having two fewer working days, resulti
 ng in the average daily export amount rising from $1.66 billion to $1.84 billion."As the global economy recovers quickly, the growth in demand for Korean goods is tangible across the world," said Min Mun-gi, an official of the ministry. "Imports are also rising sharply, so it is no longer a recession-type trade surplus."Most of the country's flagship export products, except for wireless telecommunication devices, performed much better than a year earlier.Exports of car parts gained 87.3 percent while that of cars rose 70.2 percent. Exports of semiconductors went up 81.0 percent, followed by home electronic appliances (62.6 percent), liquid-crystal displays (36.8 percent) and ships (15.2 percent). Exports of wireless telecommunication devices including mobile phones dropped 29.2 percent, mostly due to a decline in mobile phone prices.By region, exports to advanced countries and emerging economies both increased sharply. Exports to the U.S. rose 62.3 percent, to Japan 60.3 per
 cent and to the EU 38.1 percent. Exports to China gained 55.8 percent and to Asean 66.8 percent.Import growth was led by raw materials such as oil and steel. Oil imports rose 84.2 percent to $6.40 billion, in part due to the oil price increases of an average of 51.7 percent. Steel imports rose 82.8 percent.The cumulative trade surplus over the past five months stood at $11.87 billion. A ministry official said at this pace the trade surplus this year will surpass $20 billion.Moody's Investors Service sent an e-mail message yesterday saying Korea's trade surplus is helping South Korea maintain its A1 credit rating."From a macroeconomic perspective, South Korea's position - as indicated - looks strong. Its export industries are more competitive than ever, keeping its external current account balance in surplus," said Moody's Investors Service.(Description of Source: Seoul JoongAng Daily Online in English -- Website of English-language daily which provides English-language summa
 ries and full-texts of items published by the major center-right daily JoongAng Ilbo, as well as unique reportage; distributed as an insert to the Seoul edition of the International Herald Tribune; URL: http://joongangdaily.joins.com)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: TELECOMInternational EconomicInternational PoliticalLeader,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT,FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS,FINANCIAL AND COMMODITY MARKETSIP
City: Seoul
Geographic Code: CHN,JPN,KOR,USA
Geographic Name: China,Japan,South Korea,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,SOUTH KOREA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Wednesday June 2, 2010 T01:50:12Z --------------------
Title: ROK Daily: US-ROK Joint Anti-Submarine Military Exercise To Start 8 June
Journal: Chosun Ilbo Online
Text:
(Description of Source: Seoul Chosun Ilbo Online in English -- English website carrying English summaries and full translations of vernacular hard copy items of the largest and oldest daily Chosun Ilbo, which is conservative in editorial orientation -- strongly nationalistic, anti-North Korea, and generally pro-US; URL: http://english.chosun.com)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalLeaderMilitaryProliferationUrgent
City: Seoul
Geographic Code: PRK,KOR,USA,CHN
Geographic Name: North Korea,South Korea,United States,China,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,SOUTH KOREA,NORTH KOREAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Wednesday June 2, 2010 T01:24:53Z --------------------
Title: "Is the Cheonan Incident a Turning Point in the Korean Peninsula?" -- The Daily Star Headline
Journal: The Daily Star Online
Text:
Wednesday, June 02, 2010The cause of the mysterious sinking of a South Korean corvette and loss of46 members of a 104-person crew has been identified as a North Korean torpedo.Amid a renewed heightening of tension in the Korean peninsula, the questionemerges: Is the sinking of the Cheonan another blip in a long line ofunanswered North Korean provocations, or does it mark a turning point for thepeninsula?The Cheonan incident will also test the diplomatic skill of China, as itssupport for Pyongyang comes under an unprecedented regional and internationalspotlight. Despite denials from North Korea, the conclusion reached by amultinational investigation has led to soul-searching regarding SouthKorea-s military readiness and the need to reduce Seoul-svulnerability to similar sorts of attack by the North.The South Korean government is trying to make the incident a turning point ininter-Korean relations by pursuing an unprecedented effort to hold North Koreaaccountable for its action
 s. Its approach has been to examine a range ofinternationally coordinated strategies to respond to the Cheonan incident whilealso avoiding escalation into a military conflict.In a nationally televised speech on May 24, South Korean President LeeMyung-bak announced the curtailment of inter-Korean trade and exchanges; a haltto the transit of North Korean ships through South Korean waters, a measurethat had been allowed for almost a decade as part of the Sunshine Policypursued by previous South Korean administrations; pledges of an immediatemilitary response to future North Korean provocations; and an effort to obtainthe censure of North Korea at the United Nations Security Council.The speech and other South Korean follow-up measures to the investigation weredesigned to impose responsibility and punishment on North Korea for its actions.On previous occasions, North Korean provocations - including theinfiltration into South Korea of assassins in 1969 who tried to reach the BlueH
 ouse, the official residence of the South Korean head of state, the bombingmurder of over half of South Korea-s Cabinet in Rangoon in the mid-1980s,and the mid-air explosion of a Korean Air flight in Southeast Asia prior to the1988 Seoul Olympics - have been staged by North Korean leaders withvirtual impunity. Given North Korea-s history of relatively cost-freeprovocation, it is easy to imagine that the North assumes South Korea has moreto lose from a renewal of military conflict than the North does.North Korean leaders probably have the impression - reinforced througheconomic benefits gained under the economic engagement policies led byprogressive South Korean administrations - that Seoul will do more andpay more to avoid war than North Korea will, giving Pyongyang an implicitadvantage and incentive to utilize small-scale provocations as part of anextortion strategy - a way of maintaining the upper hand in inter-Koreanrelations and receiving economic payoffs in return for n
 ot threatening SouthKorean prosperity.Add to this the possibility that a nuclear-capable North Korea may haveincorporated into its psychology the idea that it is less vulnerable to attackbecause its self-styled nuclear 'deterrent' has been enhanced as aresult of two nuclear tests. In other words, that Pyongyang can initiate moreactive low-level conventional provocations without bringing an effectivecounter-response from South Korea and from its ally the United States, out ofconcern about the North-s possession of a nuclear weapon. Such acalculation certainly limits the South Korean government-s effort toexact a price from North Korea without risking a further escalation of tensions.The question of whether changes in North Korea-s post-nuclear testpsychology might enable Pyongyang to undertake new forms of guerilla activityor stealth operations is of special concern to the United States-Republic ofKorea alliance, which has become accustomed to the idea that its conventionalde
 terrence is unchallenged even at low levels. During the Cold War, hundreds oflow-level provocations by North Korea along the demilitarized zone occurredeach year, but they remained limited, and eventually disappeared altogether inthe 1990s. Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has avoided directinvolvement in more than a decade of sporadic inter-Korean confrontations inthe disputed West Sea area, where South Korea has enforced its Northern LimitLine. Seoul has unilaterally declared this limit line separate from the 1953armistice agreement that ended the Korean War.The Cheonan incident may mark a turning point that brings about more activeinvolvement by the United States in monitoring and supporting the NorthernLimit Line, more active involvement by Washington in the Cheonan investigation,the announcement of new combined naval exercises, as well as more activeAmerican support for the development of anti-submarine capabilities near theNorthern Limit Line. (American
  officials have announced that they were planninga long-term program to plug gaps in South Korea-s naval defenses.)North Korea has responded poorly to South Korea-s announcement of theinterim investigation results, stating that any effort to blame North Koreacould lead to 'all out war.' North Korea is likely to be moreoffended by South Korean efforts to bring international pressure to bearindirectly through China and the United Nations to address what North Korea nodoubt sees as primarily an inter-Korean matter.The North remains frustrated by the April 2009 United Nations PresidentialStatement condemning its missile test at the time, which drew a strong andimmediate reaction from Pyongyang. Among these was a threat that the Northwould conduct another nuclear test. That UN statement reflected a consensuswithin the United Nations Security Council to condemn North Korea-slaunch short of the level of support necessary to adopt a formal councilresolution, based on China-s objecti
 ons to stronger action by the worldbody. 'We believe it is in everyone-s interest, including China, tomake a persuasive case for North Korea to change direction,' US Secretaryof State Hillary Clinton said on May 26 in Seoul.The success of South Korea-s effort to impose a price on the North at theUnited Nations relies primarily on the ability to impose economic costs and tobring about international condemnation of Pyongyang. Both of these approachespoint to China as the actor able to indirectly influence North Korea. In thisapproach, South Korea views China as an enabler for North Korea and pressuresBeijing to coordinate actions with the international community to condemn theprovocations.South Korean reductions in inter-Korean trade and economic relations will makeNorth Korea more dependent on China for economic assistance. Such a developmentonly enhances China-s economic leverage over Pyongyang. In order fordecreasing inter-Korean economic relations to have the effect of put
 tingpressure on Pyongyang, Beijing cannot be willing to replace South Koreaneconomic assistance with its own. China-s enhanced economic leverage withNorth Korea also feeds back into an ongoing South Korean domestic politicaldebate over whether China-s expanded economic leverage over the Northmight be used to prevent North Korea-s collapse or forestall unificationbetween the North and the South.South Korean requests for United Nations Security Council action pose adelicate challenge for China. They require that Beijing issue clear signals asto whether it will condone further North Korean provocations at the cost ofrising regional tensions or whether it will cooperate in stronger internationalpunishments against North Korea.China-s main interest on the Korean peninsula is to maintain stability,but South Korea-s aggressive approach raises several difficulties forChina.First of all, it brings into relief for China a potential contradiction betweenmaintenance of stability and mai
 ntenance of the status quo, as it becomes clearthat North Korea-s direction under its current leadership is inherentlyunstable.Secondly, it places China in the position of having to choose between beingcast as North Korea-s enabler and protector - thus guaranteeing theNorth impunity for its actions that have endangered stability on the Koreanpeninsula - and China-s concern that North Korea is being backedinto a corner and might use passage of another United Nations condemnatorystatement in 2010 as a trigger for more serious difficulties. How China decidesto handle the Cheonan will go a long way toward determining whether the sinkingmarks a turning point or reflects continued business-as-usual on the Koreanpeninsula.Scott Snyder is director of the Center for US-Korea Policy at the AsiaFoundation. He is also an adjunct senior fellow for Korean studies at theCouncil on Foreign Relations, and author of 'China-s Rise and theTwo Koreas: Politics, Economics, Security.' The views ex
 pressed here arehis own and do not reflect official positions of the organizations with whichhe is affiliated. This commentary is reprinted with permission from YaleGlobalOnline (www.yaleglobal.yale.edu). Copyright (c) 2010, Yale Center for theStudy of Globalization, Yale University.(Description of Source: Beirut The Daily Star Online in English -- Website of the independent daily, The Daily Star; URL: http://dailystar.com.lb)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic EconomicInternational EconomicMilitaryDomestic PoliticalInternational Political,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTIP
City: Beirut
Geographic Code: CHN,PRK,KOR,USA,LBN
Geographic Name: China,North Korea,South Korea,United States,Lebanon,Asia,Americas,Middle East,East Asia,North Americas,SOUTH KOREA,NORTH KOREA,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas,Middle East






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T23:32:50Z --------------------
Title: Yonhap headline: "(LEAD) S Korea Wants UN To Issue Symbolic Message, Rather Than Imposing Further Sanctions: Official" by Hwang Doo-hyong
Journal: Yonhap
Text:
(Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: LeaderProliferationEnergyMilitaryInternational Political,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Seoul
Geographic Code: PRK,KOR,USA,JPN,CHN
Geographic Name: North Korea,South Korea,United States,Japan,China,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,SOUTH KOREA,NORTH KOREAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T23:22:46Z --------------------
Title: Article by Natalya Grib, Aleksandr Gabuyev and Oleg Gavrish: "Turkmenistan Relies on Pipeline" (Kommersant Online)
Journal: Kommersant Online
Text:
Yesterday, President of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov announced the start of construction of the East-West gas pipeline, with a length of 1,000 kilometers.  "Construction of the gas pipeline has an economic as well as a political significance," he said at the ceremony for welding the first pipe joint.  "Its creation will make it possible to increase the export potential, and at the same time to meet the country's domestic needs.  The East-West pipeline may be considered as Turkmenistan's contribution to world energy security."The Turkmenistani leader cited the cost of the project (aside from laying the pipeline, it includes construction of seven gas compressor stations) at $2 billion.  "We will build the gas pipeline through our own efforts and for our own funds," Mr. Berdymukhamedov said.  He did not specify where Ashkabat - whose budget suffers from a decline in volumes of export and gas prices - intends to get the money.  However, a Kommersant source in the Turkm
 enistani government explained that negotiations on a loan are being conducted with a pool of US oil and gas companies operating on the Caspian shelf, as well as with financial institutions in China.  According to the Kommersant source in the PRC (People's Republic of China) State Council, the question of a loan for construction of the pipeline was discussed with Chairman Hu Jintao in the course of Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov's recent visit to China (see Kommersant for 4 May).  Beijing is not ruling out the possibility of granting the loan in exchange for the CNPC state company's receiving new licenses in Turkmenistan, or guarantees of gas deliveries from deposits that are of interest to the PRC.  A Kommersant source in the Turkmenistani government adds that the question of who will build the gas pipeline - the Turkmenistani company created for this project, or an international consortium - is also being resolved.Meanwhile, even last year, Turkmenistan had discussed the implem
 entation of the East-West project with an entirely different foreign partner - Moscow.  In March of last year, Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov came to Moscow for negotiations with Russian Federation President Dmitriy Medvedev and, according to information of Kommersant, the Kremlin had greatly expected to sign the agreement on the project.  However, this did not happen.  As Kommersant sources in the Russian Federation Ministry of Foreign Affairs explain, Russia was seeking a guarantee that the entire pipeline, with capacity of 30-40 billion cubic meters of gas a year, would be joined up to the Caspian gas pipeline, which is being lobbied by Moscow and which is to become one of the sources for deliveries to the EU via South Stream.  But Ashkabat did not provide these guarantees.After the failure of the negotiations, in the Spring of 2009 Turkmenistan announced an international tender for construction of the pipeline.  Over 70 foreign companies participated in the tender, including
  the Russian Itera.  The Russians clearly appraised their chances of participation in the project as being high.  In the summer of last year, Itera even opened an office in Ashkabat.  But the tender was never concluded.  And then, the Turkmengaz state concern decided to build the pipeline b y itself.  As the head of Turkmenistan announced yesterday, it will be placed into operation by 2015.The main source of resources for the new pipeline will be the country's largest gas deposits in South Yolotan.  According to information of the British Gaffney Cline &amp; Associates, its reserves are estimated at 4-14 trillion cubic meters of gas, which makes it the fourth largest in the world.  Turkmen geologists raise the estimate of the deposit's reserves to 16 trillion cubic meters.Up until recent times, there had been a game over the specific direction in which the gas from South Yolotan would be exported.   Thus, for several years, Gazprom had tried to get access to these resources.  Bu
 t in April of 2009, after the explosion along the Northern Asia - Center-4 gas pipeline on the border of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, Gazprom stopped buying Turkmen gas altogether.  As the head of East European Gas Analysis, Mikhail Korchemkin, believes, Russia needed to annul an unprofitable contract signed on the eve of the Russian-Ukrainian gas conflict of 31 December 2008 and setting the price of gas in the amount of $374 per 1,000 cubic meters for an entire year.  Aside from that, the world financial crisis collapsed the sales markets for the Russian monopoly in Europe.  Under conditions of a gas surplus on the EU markets, it was more advantageous for Gazprom to sell its own - and not Turkmen - gas.  In December of last year, Presidents Medvedev and Berdymukhamedov agreed on resuming deliveries, but this year the volumes of purchase have been limited to only 10 billion cubic meters a year.  Turkmenistan had promised to provide approximately the same volume along the pip
 elines to Iran and China, which were completed in 2009.Mikhail Korchemkin is convinced that Ashkabat has adopted the decision to promote its gas in all directions, including the Western.  "So that they will build East-West with the same stubbornness that Gazprom is building Nord Stream and South Stream," the expert reasons.  Then again, the project now has one main weak point: This gas pipeline leads to nowhere, because there is no pipeline on the shores of the Caspian that can lead the gas farther.Experts believe that, having launched construction of the East-West pipeline, Turkmenistan is striving to increase competition between two alternative projects: The Caspian and Trans-Caspian.  The second variant presupposes construction of a gas pipeline along the bottom of the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan and connecting the pipeline up to the Nabucco gas pipeline, which leads to the EU.However, Moscow is in no hurry to implement the Caspian project.  Sources in Gazprom say that no o
 ne has approached them with a proposal on deliveries of Turkmen gas over the territory of the Russian Federation, by-passing the Caspian.  And a Kommersant source in the monopoly stated that the company "has rejected this project, because East-West, along with the Caspian project, is estimated at $6 billion."  "Why do we need to invest such money with unclear prospects of the sales market?", the Kommersant interviewee says.  However, supporters of Nabucco are not concealing their joy.  "It is entirely possible that East-West will someday allow Turkmenistan to sell resources to Nabucco," notes a Kommersant source in the European Commission.  Washington is also not rejecting support of the Trans-Caspian project.  US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State George Krol, who is in charge of Central Asia, told about this last week in an interview with Kommersant (see Kommersant for 28 May).  However, to start with, Baku and Ashkabat will have to resolve the question of delimitation of
  boundaries along the Caspian shelf.(Description of Source: Moscow Kommersant Online in Russian -- Website of informative daily business newspaper owned by pro-Kremlin and Gazprom-linked businessman Alisher Usmanov, although it still criticizes the government; URL: http://kommersant.ru/)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: EnergyInternational EconomicInternational Political,MAJOR CORPORATIONS,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Moscow
Geographic Code: RUS,TKM,CHN,USA
Geographic Name: Russia,Turkmenistan,China,United States,Eurasia,Asia,Americas,Central Eurasia,East Asia,North Americas,AZERBAIJAN,CHINA,WESTERN ASIA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,RUSSIA,USSR,ASIA,EUROPE,TURKMENISTAN,CENTRAL ASIA,EASTERN EUROPE,CISIP
Region: Eurasia,Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T22:25:53Z --------------------
Title: Summary: Zhongguo Xinwen She on US Handling of East Turkistan Terrorists
Journal: Zhongguo Xinwen She
Text:
(Description of Source: Beijing Zhongguo Xinwen She in Chinese -- China's official news service for overseas Chinese)Attachments:ATT5001J.pdfzxs0612(2009).pdfzxs0612.pdfMaterial in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Human RightsInternational PoliticalTerrorism
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T19:39:21Z --------------------
Title: Xinhua "Roundup" by Ahmad Aldabba: "Gazans Fumed Over Death of Aid Flotilla Activists"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
GAZA, June 1 (Xinhua) -- The killing of at least nine pro- Palestinian activists by Israeli forces aboard an aid flotilla which aimed to break Gaza siege triggered outrage and condemnation among the besieged population of Gaza."There is no doubt that it is a barbaric act," said Munira Hammad, an advocate from Gaza City. "Israel is a major threat to the world peace."Almost like every Palestinian in Gaza, Hammad believes that the worldwide condemnation of the Israeli "massacre" is a positive step, but "not enough and should be followed by more concrete steps on the ground."At least nine activists were killed when Israeli commandos attacked an aid flotilla that was attempting to penetrate a three- year-long blockade imposed on Gaza since Islamic Hamas movement violently seized the enclave in 2007.Hammad said nearly every Palestinian fully realizes that Israel is "a rogue state and is above the law, but no one has ever expected that the Israelis can adopt such a high level of arr
 ogance and kill foreigners.""They (the Israelis) used to kill the Palestinians for decades, but this time it is uncommon that Europeans and foreigners get killed and assaulted by the occupation soldiers," she said.The advocate said the Israelis are similar to, "and even much worse than," the Somali pirates attacking unarmed people in the international waters."The Somali pirates steal money and goods, but they don't kill, " she added.On Monday, Mukhaimar Abu Sa'da, a political science lecturer at Gaza-based Al-Azhar University, told Xinhua the horrible attack on the pro-Palestinian campaigners in the Mediterranean Sea would attract the attention of the international community to the blockade imposed on the costal enclave.The cruel and ruthless way the Israeli naval forces raided the flotilla as well as the high toll of death caused by their excessive use of force will push the world to focus more on the blockaded strip, he argued, expecting the siege would be lifted soon if t
 he international community seriously shoulder the responsibility to end it.Physician Jamal al-Soussi from Gaza City said the scenes of the Israeli soldiers being dropped by helicopters on the deck of the ship and then shooting unarmed civilians who came to help the Gazan people have really shocked him."It's a pogrom. No other words can better describe the Israeli act," said al-Soussi, who said many of his patients died because they could not leave the besieged Gaza to be treated abroad."Those who were killed on the ships have sacrificed their lives to help the Palestinians of the Gaza Strip. The least the international community can do to honor them is lifting the blockade" he added.Israel's operation against the aid fleet drew condemnation and calls from several countries around the globe for launching a transparent probe into the operation, including from the United States whose President Barack Obama voiced "deep regret," and urged Israel to "quickly collect all the facts
  about the incident. "The UN Security Council, which convened Monday in New York, called for an impartial inquiry and the immediate release of ships and civilians held in Israel.Turkey, which sponsored the aid cargo that comprised 750 activists including parliamentarians and former politicians, recalled its ambassador to Tel Aviv.Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who has agreed to engage in U.S.-sponsored indirect talks with Israel last month, condemned the attack and called for forming an international committee to investigate the Israeli "crime" against the peace activists.A spokesperson for Abbas said that "this crime cannot be forgiven and the perpetrators must be brought to justice," stressing the necessity to lift the blockage Israel imposes on the seaside enclave.Meanwhile, Egypt decided on Tuesday to open Rafah border crossing with Gaza for the entry of humanitarian aid, one day after the international community widely and strongly condemned the Israeli blockade o
 n Gaza.A Palestinian official with the deposed Hamas government said that Egypt informed the Palestinian side that the Rafah crossing, the only window for the Palestinians in Gaza to the outside world, will be open till further notice.The step, which has been demanded by Hamas for the past three years and hailed by President Abbas, spurred hundreds of Palestinians in Gaza to approach the terminal, although its gates are still shut down. However, the constant opening of the borders seems to be unexpected.In the meantime, Hamas bloc in the Palestinian Legislative Council urged for more solidarity campaigns to head to the strip with the aim of ending the siege."The flow of aid convoys aiming to break the siege must continue," the bloc said in a press release. "We must ensure to see this strategy going on," it stressed.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World Ne
 ws Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic Political,SOCIAL ISSUESIP
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: EGY,GZ,ISR,TUR,USA
Geographic Name: Egypt,Gaza Strip,Israel,Turkey,United States,Africa,Middle East,Europe,Americas,North Africa,South Europe,North Americas,MEDITERRANEAN,CHINA,EAST AFRICA,SOMALIA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,AFRICA,MIDDLE EAST,ARAB STATES,PALESTINE,ISRAELIP
Region: Africa,Middle East,Europe,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T19:39:53Z --------------------
Title: Unattributed report: Guo Zhenyuan Says US Influence on Handling Cross-Strait Affairs Is Weakening
Journal: Zhongguo Tongxun She
Text:
Guo Zhenyuan is currently in Hong Kong to attend the "2010 Cross-Strait and Taiwan-Hong Kong Relations" symposium. He told the press that while we certainly must not ignore the US factor in resolving the cross-strait issue, we must also be aware of the United States' interference in the Taiwan issue.He said: the United States has been meddling itself with the Taiwan issue over the past several decades. The United States, to guard against, contain and interfere with China, regards the Taiwan issue an important aspect of its foreign policy toward China. Guo Zhenyuang said: fundamentally speaking, cross-strait relations are an issue between the two sides of the strait. Working with one heart, advancing with joint hands and doing away with interferences are the decisive factor that drives the peaceful development of cross-strait relations.Guo Zhenyuan analyzed: the main causes of the weakened US interferences are: 1) the strength and international influence that China has demonst
 rated during the global financial crisis have reached the point where even the United States has to acknowledge. Although the two countries' combined national strength still differs greatly, the differences are reducing; 2) the United States' ability to interfere with cross-strait relations is weakening because it now faces the most serious situation after the Cold War. and 3) because of the historic changes of cross-strait relations and China-US relations this year, the United States' need and motive to interfere and meddle itself with the Taiwan issue have declined.(Description of Source: Hong Kong Zhongguo Tongxun She in Chinese -- PRC-owned press agency (China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalUrgent
City: Hong Kong
Geographic Code: CHN,HKG,TWN,USA
Geographic Name: China,Hong Kong,Taiwan,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,TAIWAN,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,HONG KONG,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T16:32:17Z --------------------
Title: Article by Fedor Lukyanov, chief editor of Russia in Global Affairs: "Regime of Traffic Lights"
Journal: GZT.ru
Text:
A colleague of his who studies the same issues in Beijing is wondering who will represent Kyrgyzstan at the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) summit in June, and on what basis.  China has an extreme dislike of anything resembling interference in anyone's internal affairs.  But attendance at the session by Roza Otunbayeva, the interim prime minister and now president, would mean a recognition of her powers by the other participants, even though by no means everyone inside the country agrees with this.The April events in Kyrgyzstan were dubbed, from inertia, a "color revolution," but in actual fact they have nothing to do with that political model.  The distinguishing feature of the "color revolutions" that took place in Eurasia in the first half of the 2000s (Serbia, Georgia, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan) was the efficient mechanism for the legitimization of the new regime.  The starting point for the wave of protests was a refusal by part of the elite and the population to recog
 nize the election results.  In the context of the discreditation of the incumbent regime, which was accused of mass vote-rigging, the role of arbiter basically fell to external forces -- European organizations (the OSCE, the Council of Europe, the EU) and Western public opinion.  Their support for one of the sides determined the result.In the case of Kyrgyzstan-2, this pattern is absent.  First, there were no elections, although the campaign to convene the Kurultay (assembly) at the end of March could be comparable, if you stretch a point.  The leadership excluded opposition representatives from the process, and that served as a basis for rallying the dissenters.  Second, and most important, there was no external factor with the opportunity to legitimize regime change.This has resulted in a dangerous and unstable situation exacerbated by the fact that the initiators of the coup have themselves abolished all the formally legitimate institutions, including the parliament.  Rus
 sia was clearly far from distressed at the overthrow of Bakiyev, but it does not possess a system of organizations whose opinions could give legitimacy to the revolutionary government.  Hence Moscow's persistent calls for the speediest holding of elections and a return to the legal space.  Here Russia hopes that the new government will be able to secure its own legitimacy through elections, although there is no certainty as to that.  If the voting (parliamentary elections and a referendum on the appointment of Otunbayeva) is democratic, unpleasant surprises are possible, while if it is manipulated, then the preconditions will arise for a real "color revolution."As far as Western structures are concerned, their desire actively to intervene in such events has declined sharply.  And this is not only because Bishkek is a long way away and nobody has any obvious stakes in the standoff there.  Both the United States and the EU are mired in their own problems, and the desire to dis
 seminate democratic ideals has declined steeply on the basis of the results of the preceding wave.In this sense Barack Obama's speech at the West Point Military Academy on Saturday is noteworthy; he set forth the principles of the new national security doctrine that will be published this week.  The president named among the priorities support for democratic values throughout the world.  However, he noted, the United States should do this primarily by its own example -- it should live according to these values, display commitment to the supremacy of the law and the Constitution, and improve its own democratic system.  In other words, Washington does not intend to pin its hopes on intervention with the aim of changing the model of power in o ther countries.From the moment of the breakup of the USSR its territory was, tacitly but obviously, the subject of acute geopolitical rivalry.  Moscow desperately tried to preserve at least some of its former assets, while the leading Wes
 tern capitals regarded this space largely as a trophy for victory in the Cold War.  Over this period the former Union republics, frequently exploiting opportunities offered by the battle between the grandees, set up their own statehoods.  Now the question of their further development has arisen, and it transpires that the survival of autonomous states may be an even more complex task.Kyrgyzstan is also lucky that the current chairman of the OSCE is Kazakhstan -- a country with a very keen interest in stability among its neighbors.  If a European capital had been in Astana's place, there might have been no coherent reaction at all, still less participation.  The EU only spoke out somewhat feebly a few days later, when all the most important things had already happened.People have grown accustomed to regarding the post-Soviet space as a tasty morsel, which is understandable in the light of the rich natural resources.  But now this part of the world is increasingly beginning to
  resemble a heavy burden that the countries located there (or many of them, at least) are themselves unable to bear, while the great powers are either unwilling or unable.  Even Ukraine, a large, potentially strong and important European power, finds itself in a situation where it has no one to turn to for economic aid except Moscow, despite the political risks of a one-sided orientation.Eurasia is the source of a large number of risks and opportunities in the 21st century, from regional conflicts in the "enlarged Middle East" to seats of highly dynamic economic growth in East Asia.  The question of responsibility for the development of the most problematic parts of the continent, which undoubtedly include Central Asia, is raised only at the level of political rhetoric, if at all.  The real politics of the major powers is dictated by the logic of rivalry.  Russia is concerned to restore a "zone of privileged interests" where none of the other external forces would have a dec
 isive say.  China does not want to get involved in anything except the expansion of its economic influence.  The United States under Obama has moved away from the aggressive advancement of its goals (energy goals, for instance), but looks at everything through the filter of its own objectives in Afghanistan, which are frequently linked to American domestic policy.The joint operation to "evacuate" Kurmanbek Bakiyev from southern Kyrgyzstan so as to avoid an escalation of internecine strife was an illustration of how Moscow and Washington are capable of collaborating in a place where relations were always competitive.  After that, a special responsibility rests with Russia, but Moscow lacks the instruments and, apparently, any clear understanding of its own objectives.  In principle a key role should be played by the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization):  International political activeness is always more convincing if it is backed up by a military component.  However
 , serious strain is evident within that organization.  Some countries (Uzbekistan, Tajikistan) were very concerned at the change of position by Russia, which for the first time supported a change in the status quo in a neighboring country.  And the Belarusian president is actually playing openly against Moscow, insisting on Bakiyev's legitimacy.  It is curious that for the first time the main political obstacles to Russia's actions are connected not with the activities of rivals among the great powers but with the complex interweaving of the interests of the post-Soviet neighbors.Bishkek is by no means the most important of the post-Soviet capitals.  However, Russia's ability elegantly to defuse the Kyrgyzstani situation will be an indicator to everyone as to whether Moscow is ready for a leadi ng role.(Description of Source: Moscow Gzt.ru -- Informative news website owned by metals magnate Lisin; not affiliated with the Gazeta.ru website; URL: http://gzt.ru/)Material in the
  World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalLeader,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Moscow
Geographic Code: RUS,KGZ,KAZ,USA
Geographic Name: Russia,Kyrgyzstan,Kazakhstan,United States,Eurasia,Americas,Central Eurasia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,WESTERN ASIA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,KAZAKHSTAN,RUSSIA,USSR,AMERICAS,ASIA,EUROPE,KYRGYZSTAN,UKRAINE,EASTERN EUROPE,CENTRAL ASIAIP
Region: Eurasia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T15:48:11Z --------------------
Title: Unattributed report: "A Golden Phoenix From a Poor Village in Hubei -- Chinese Ambassador to the United States Zhang Yesui"
Journal: Zhongguo Tongxun She
Text:
Born into a poor family, Zhang has been through much hardship. Today, his home is a two-story house in Jiankang village in Tianmen, Yuekou town, Hubei Province. When he was a child, the area where the house was located was a completely different scene, marked by poverty.In those days, the Zhang family had to feed eight children, and that suggests Zhang Yesui had a difficult childhood. During the three years of natural disaster, Zhang, then aged seven or eight, survived by eating powdered tree leaves and congee made with wild vegetables.Zhang's school was two miles from his home. Like other rural village children, he had to rush back home after school every day to help his family make a living. In 1964, when Zhang was 11, he made it to Yuekou Middle School with the best academic results of all pupils in his village.Zhang's former language teacher, Li Renkang, now 69, remembers Zhang as a student who excelled in Chinese language and foreign languages. "He was particular respect
 ful to teachers and was well disciplined. Yet he was a reliable and calm person, not the kind of student who shows his intelligence to the full." In 1970, Zhang, then 17, was recommended by the village to attend Beijing Foreign Studies University. He did not have any decent clothing for college. The father of his cousin Zhang Yekuo at once took off his jacket and offered it.After graduating from Beijing Foreign Studies University at the age of 22, Zhang was handpicked by the Foreign Ministry as a foreign language talent. He got to pursue further education at the London School of Economics (LSE) in the UK. Chen Naiqing, who later married Zhang, also went to the LSE that year, while foreign minister Yang Jiechi and vice minister Wang Guangya were enrolled a year earlier.Chen and Zhang were born in the same year. A Shandong native, she graduated from Dalian University of Foreign Languages and worked with the Chinese Embassy in the UK. In 2003, she was appointed Chinese ambassad
 or to Norway, making her one of the few female ambassadors of China. Between 2007 and 2009, she was appointed special envoy on Korean Peninsula affairs and was responsible for DPRK affairs. A young man from a poor background with high-society connections, Zhang managed to fulfill his aspirations step by step through education.According to tradition, Zhang was regarded as a celebrity in his hometown and the pride of Tianmen, even though he was just an ordinary employee at the Foreign Ministry. However, no matter which official position he holds, his tendency to keep a low profile, nurtured during the time when he was a student, has never changed. Until three years ago, apart from the teachers and students of his alma mater, no one in his hometown was aware that Jiankang village in Yuekou town was the hometown of this "golden phoenix." Over the past 10 years, he has gone back home only three times because of his busy work schedule. Each time he went back, he stayed in his old 
 home. He just came and went quietly.Last September, Zhang, then representative of China to the UN and ambassador plenipotentiary, returned to Beijing to see his relatives. His cousin Zhang Yekuo saw him off at Wuhan Tianhe Airport. When the airport staff learned of his identity, they invited him to take a VIP passage and offered him personalized services. Yet he turned down the offers and insisted on going through security check just like other travelers.A mild-mannered man, Zhang excels in multilateral mediation. This will stand him in good stead to help China foster a better international environment.Zhang was a staff member at the Chinese embassy in the UK before being appointed deputy director general of the International Organizations and Conferences Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, director general of the Protocol Department, and then assistant foreign minister. In 2003, he was appointed vice minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and was responsible
  for European affairs and policy research. He was later charged with arms control and disarmament. In 2008, he became the representative of China to the UN and ambassador plenipotentiary.(Description of Source: Hong Kong Zhongguo Tongxun She in Chinese -- PRC-owned press agency (China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalLeader,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Hong Kong
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,UNITED KINGDOM,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,EUROPE,WESTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T16:24:39Z --------------------
Title: The following are highlights of defense industry and procurement-related reports carried by the Israeli media between 1 and 31 May. To request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735, or fax (703) 613-5735. For a copy of the video, contact GSG_GVP_VideoOps@rccb.osis.gov or the OSC Customer Center at (800) 205-8615. Selected video also available at OpenSource.gov.
Journal: Israel -- OSC Summary
Text:
reports on 3 May: "Defense electronics company Elbit Systems and information technology solutions developer Ness Technologies joint venture NessBit has won a $25-million contract to supply an information management system for the Israeli Air Force (IAF). The contract with the Defense Ministry is for work over the next four years. Elbit Systems and Ness Technologies will equally share the project, in the amount of $12.5 million each. NessBit was established in order to develop the unique technological capabilities required for such a project. Elbit Systems executive VP Bezhalel Machlis, and Ness TSG president Michael Zinderman said that the cooperation by two companies under the joint venture allowed a combination of diverse technological disciplines. The announcement of the deal comes a day after Elbit Systems announced a $50 million contract to supply UAVs to Israel's army." Slovak TV Launches Satellite Service on Amos Spacecomreports on 3 May: "Spacecom, the operator of the
  Amos satellite fleet, today announced that Slovak Telekom's Magio TV has launched its satellite TV service on the Amos-3 satellite. Magio TV, under the T-Com brand, is the third European DTH (Direct-to-Home) service, and fourth overall, on the Amos satellite constellation, located at Spacecom's 4(deg)W prime orbital position. Slovak Telekom is a subsidiary of the global Deutsche Telekom group. Magio TV, which complements Slovak Telekom's IPTV and broadband Internet offerings, is now available to all of Slovakia as a stand-alone digital TV service or as part of the incumbent telecom's other services. It joins fellow DTH services Hungary's T-Home SatTV, Romania's Boom and Israel's Yes on Spacecom's Amos constellation." (Ramat Gan Space-Communication Ltd. in English -- Website of worldwide provider of broadcasting and communications services through Amos satellites) NICE Video Surveillance To Protect World Expo Globes Onlinereports on 5 May: "Video and voice transaction analys
 is company NICE Systems said today its NICE IP video surveillance solution has been deployed as part of the overall security measures for the 2010 Shanghai World Expo. The expo is scheduled to be held from 1 May through 31 October 2010. The NICE IP video surveillance solution is part of the NICE security offering, which enables the capture of security, safety and operational data from multiple sensors and systems, including audio, video, radio, web, and more." Armor Manufacturer Deploys McKit Product Software Globes Onlinereports on 9 May: "Malam Team subsidiary McKit Systems has deployed a product life management (PLM) and CAD/CAM (computer aided design and manufacturing) solution at vehicle armor kits manufacturer Plasan Sasa. The project was estimated at NIS 1 million. Plasan manufactures, sells, and exports armor kits for civilian and military vehicles, ships, and aircraft. The company provides add-on armor kits for the world's largest vehicle manufacturers, so that the 
 armored car is delivered directly from the company from which it was bought." Elbit Systems, Rockwell JV Wins $80m in New ContractsGlobes Online reports on 11 May: "Elbit Systems and Rockwell Collins's joint venture Vision Systems International has won several new contracts worth over $80 million of systems for the US Navy and other customers. VSI will deliver its Joint Helmet Mounted Cueing System to Boeing Company for use in US Navy F-18 fighter-bombers, as well as for foreign customers. The system is used by pilots to cue onboard weapons and sensors against enemy aircraft and ground targets without the need to aggressively maneuver the plane or place the Head-Up Display in the field of view of the target. VSI will also supply its FAst Characterization Tools hardware to the US Navy. Deliveries of the systems will begin this year and continue through 2011." Orders Backlog Rises for Elbit Systems Globes Online reports on 13 May: "Defense systems contractor Elbit Systems achi
 eved growth in its orders backlog and net profit for the first quarter, but also saw a drop in revenue and operating profit. The company also announced the distribution of a dividend of $0.36 per share on 7 June. Revenues fell 5.9% to $618.2 million for the first quarter from $656.9 million for the corresponding quarter of 2009. The company attributed most of the decrease to delayed orders for land vehicle systems and C4I systems, compared with the corresponding quarter. The company missed the analysts' consensus of $680.8 million revenue." IDF Central Command Begins Using Magna CameraIsrael Defense Forces reports on 13 May: "The Judea and Samaria Area Division of the IDF Central Command recently introduced the Magna to its services, a thermal camera system that provides intelligence information for soldiers serving in the operation room in the area. The new system, which was developed by Magna, a company in the Rotem Industrial Park in Dimona, was received this month by the
  Yehuda (Territorial) Brigade around Hebron and is in the final stage of installation. In the future, the Magna system integration process is expected to expand to the entire Central Command, as well as at additional sites. 'It is a warning system that provides intelligence coverage over a specific area and provides a warning response to an intrusion. In addition, the system is scheduled to be installed at several sites in the area to help close possible infiltration routes,' says the Head of the Electronic Systems Department in the Ground Forces Command Technology Division, Maj. Oshri Itach." (Tel Aviv Israel Defense Forces in English -- Official website of the IDF Spokesman's Office) IMI Unveils 'Enchanted Spear' Precise RocketEnchanted Spear (photo: IMI) Israel Defense Forcesreports on 16 May: "Israel Military Industries (IMI) has developed an artillery rocket with a precise 40 km range. IMI reports that the new rocket, Enchanted Spear, is able to hit a target with a prec
 ision of 10 meters. The new device also includes a directive system based on GPS, and an advanced navigation system that is based on a miniature rocket engine. In February 2010, IMI carried out a fire trial with Enchanted Spear at a range of dozens of kilometers, which achieved impressive data: The rockets hit very precisely, up to 10 meters from the target. The need for artillery assistance to ground forces became clear in recent years, especially during Operation Cast Lead when the IDF fired 7,500 shells as part of its ground operations. The Artillery Corps is planning to upgrade the accuracy of artillery shells in the near future. In the meantime, an officer at IDF Headquarters explained that the IDF can be expected to purchase precise artillery rockets in the coming years. The Enchanted Spear rocket is fired from the Pounder launcher, which was recently developed by IMI, and according to the company is considered to be at the technological forefront of artillery rocket l
 aunchers. The rocket is able to carry warheads of different kinds, which can be adapted to operational needs. It is also built to hit and destroy targets on the ground, such as artillery batteries, headquarters and infantry centers of the enemy." NICE Systems Protects Los Angeles Port Globes Online reports on 17 May: "NICE Systems is installing its open platform situation management solution at the Port of Los Angeles. The company did not disclose the size of the contract. The NICE Situator will provide an integrated command and control platform to fuse, correlate and analyze information across disparate security systems. It will also improve inter-agency collaboration and response capabilities for the Port of Los Angeles, which will help improve the safety and security of passengers and continuity of operations." IAI Sells Stake in Amos Satellite Co. Globes Onlinereports on 17 May: "Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) has sold its entire stake in Spacecom Satellite Communicat
 ions to Eurocom Group, owned by Sha'ul Elovitch. Spacecom operates the Amos communications satellites. IAI sold 2,425,000 Spacecom shares, amounting to 14.87% of the company, for NIS 167.3 million. The sale price was NIS 69 per share. The sale boosts Eurocom's holding in the company from 51.48% to 66.35%." Magnet System Installed in All IAF Bases Israel Defense Forcesreports on 17 May: "The Magnet system, which will streamline the operational activity of the IAF, has been installed and put into operation on all IAF bases. The Magnet presents a situation report of all IAF bases and includes a computerized operations log, replacing the manual system, which allows for faster data transfer. During security related events, the system displays the relevant areas, the number of injured, and the concentration of IAF forces, while every unit is able to update the situation on its base independently. The information is then transferred to central control posts and to the commanders of
  the various units and departments of the IAF. In addition, the Magnet system can form a connection to radars and other detection means, allowing an alternative alert system for high-trajectory weapon fire towards IAF bases." IAI Reports Increased Backlog, Net Profit in Q1 Israel Aerospace Industrieson 17 May reports its "results for the first quarter of 2010: Company backlog at $9.4 billion, an increase of $1.6 billion since the beginning of the year (an increase of 20%); Net profit of $17 million, an increase of 13% compared to the first quarter of 2009; Sales at $769 million; Positive cash flow from current activities stands at $330 million." (Lod Israel Aerospace Industries in English -- Website of leading Israeli defense industry corporation) Eltics Unveils Thermal Stealth Suite for Combat Vehicles Defense Updatereports on 17 May: "Thermal stealth technology being developed by the Israeli company Eltics promises to render military vehicles, combat helicopters and even e
 ntire naval surface ships invisible to thermal imaging surveillance sensors, targeting systems or missile seekers employing thermal sensors. The patented system, dubbed Black Fox, is designed to be applied as an add-on layer, on top of existing armor, or be embedded into the outer layer, comprising one layer in the 'onion ring' defensive concept of modern platforms. Black Fox is an active, adaptive multi-spectral stealth technology applicable to land, airborne and naval vessels. The concept has been in development since 2006 and was recently demonstrated in field experiments, demonstrating the ability to effectively blend parts of the platform into the background, while on the move."  Click here to view a 2-minute video clip in wmv format, presenting the stealth technology. (Defense Update in English -- Website of UK-based online defense magazine edited by retired Israeli Army officers) Ukrainian Media Group Signs Agreement With Satellite Service Provider Spacecomreports on 
 17 May: "Spacecom, the operator of the Amos satellite fleet, today announced that U.A. Inter Media Group, Ukraine's national broadcaster and leading channel network, has signed a long term agreement to bring/move its satellite TV service to the Amos-3 satellite. Led by the country's most popular channel, ITV, Inter is shifting nine channels including Inter+, Enter, Enter Film, NTN, K1, K2, Mega and MTV Ukraine to the Amos platform." Israeli Desert Patrol Units Use New 'Extreme Mobility' VehicleZibar Mk II (photo: Defense Update) Defense Updatereports on 23 May: "A new Israeli all-terrain vehicle is on display at Eurosatory 2010 for the first time. The vehicle, 'Zibar Mk II' is the second generation of the Zibar M, an all-terrain light vehicle developed by Israel's top off-road vehicle specialist Ido OffRoad Center (IORC). According to Ido Cohen, owner and chief designer of the vehicle, the company has received significant orders for the vehicle and is gearing to expand its p
 roduction lines, by teaming with local companies for manufacturing and marketing of the Zibar.So far more than 20 Zibar vehicles are operational. One of the applications currently operational overseas is the Mobile Support Vehicle (MSV) offered by Aeronautics Defense Systems. The MSV takes advantage of Zibar's extreme mobility, transporting a mast-mounted stabilized multi-sensor payload to locations inaccessible by other vehicles. MSV uses an 8-meter telescopic mast, concealed in the vehicle, carrying the stabilized multi-sensor payload or a scanning thermal imager (SPIDER), both delivered by Controp Precision Systems. Initial production versions of the MSV are operational with some desert patrol units in Israel and by foreign paramilitary and security organizations."Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Com
 merce.
Descriptor: MilitaryProliferationTechnologyTELECOM,FINANCIAL AND COMMODITY MARKETS,MANUFACTURING AND PRODUCTION,PRODUCT APPLICATIONSIP
City: 
Geographic Code: ISR,CHN,USA,SVK,UKR
Geographic Name: Israel,China,United States,Slovakia,Ukraine,Middle East,Asia,Americas,Europe,East Asia,North Americas,Central Europe
Region: Middle East,Asia,Americas,Europe






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T16:55:34Z --------------------
Title: Xinhua "Interview": "China Has Promising Growth Prospects: Economist"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
By Xinhua writer Fu YunweiBEIJING, June 1 (Xinhua) -- China has promising growth prospects and should not be blamed for world imbalances, says Danny Quah, a renowned British economist."Emergency financing that was placed in the Chinese economy to counter the downturn from the 2008 global financial crisis was the right thing...The imbalances is a global problem, not a China problem," said Quah, a professor at the London School of Economics and Political Science.China did the right thing in infusing its economy with fiscal stimulus, Quah said in a recent interview with Xinhua.He also declined to describe the ballooning real estate prices as a bubble, pointing out "the strong fundamentals" of China's economy.He said the expansion of China's housing construction will be proved useful eventually, given the fact that "China is still engaging in the task of moving hundreds of millions of people from rural areas to urban China to continue to power its manufacturing and industrial pro
 gress.""So I would not describe it as a collapse of real estate bubble, we can look forward to a rationalization of housing and real estate prices," Quah said. "The improvement and expansion of housing stock will play an important role in continuing to move the Chinese economy forward.""I think Chinese fundamentals will continue to be strong. And a little bit of high inflation, as long as it doesn't break out into some kind of runaway high inflation, is probably no bad thing," he said. "We will get it under control again as the Chinese government did previously."On allegations that China deliberately keeps its currency RMB weak to obtain unfair advantages in trade with countries like the United States, Quah said people who draw such a false conclusion are misguided."The United States is running a trade deficit not just against China. It is running a trade deficit against almost 100 other countries," he said. "China is not unique in how it is exporting more to the United Stat
 es than it's importing."The U.S. government was beginning to run a large trade deficit long before China's trade surpluses started grow, he added."If you take the ratio of China's bilateral trade surplus against the U.S. as a fraction of the U.S.' overall bilateral trade deficit against all of the countries, it has remained constant over the last 15, 20 years," Quah said.He said these facts clearly show that the appreciation of RMB will not end the U.S. trade deficit, instead it may produce unexpected repercussions upon the U.S. economy and the rest of the world.Quah said RMB appreciation would also force American consumers to purchase goods from other nations at higher expenses."Revaluation proponents should be reminded that manufacturers of the U.S. rely on the inputs from China," he said. "If China's commodities get more expensive, it would hurt the U.S. industry, and hundreds of thousands of jobs will be destroyed."When asked what is behind the world imbalances, Quah sai
 d: "The direction of the causality I think is much more compelling from the behavior of the U.S. economy to the rest of the world than it is from China to the U.S. economy.""The inability of the dollar to adjust the world imbalance contributes much to the financial crisis," he said."If you believe this alternative of this pattern of causality, then how we fix the problem of trade deficit imbalances is to fix the U.S. economy," he added.Quah said the U.S. role in the world economy is no longer as optimistic as it was. Other parts of the global economy are actually growing faster and already having a much bigger role in the global economy. American consumers have to be more careful with their borrowing behaviors, he said."When they do that, I would argue, a more rational attitude toward savings and consumption. That would restore the world pattern of global balances," he said. "We would need other things as well, but I think that is the single largest cause for global imbalanc
 es."Quah said the "global economy's center of gravity," a quantified indicator showing the global distribution of economic activities, has been moving 2,000 km eastwards for the past three decades, indicating the increasing importance of the East in the world economy.However, "it may take decades if not centuries to see a shift of leadership from the West to the East with the reconfiguration of political power and soft power paralleled with the economic power," he said.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International Economic,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS,ECONOMIC STATISTICS,FORECASTSIP
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,UNITED KINGDOM,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,EUROPE,WESTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T16:49:31Z --------------------
Title: Unattributed Article: "Diplomatic Center of Gravity Shifting East, China's Pluralistic Friendship Consolidation"
Journal: Wen Wei Po Online
Text:
Qu Xing pointed out that, with the tight schedule in Wen Jiabao's trip, it can be said to be achieving multiple gains at one stroke. The countries he is visiting are distributed in the region around China, not only including the Eastern developed country of Japan, but also developing countries such as South Korea (ROK), Mongolia, and Myanmar. In addition, he also attended the third meeting of the leaders of China, Japan, and South Korea. Thus, during one high-level trip, he has integrated multiple missions and objectives, as well as taking into account the diplomatic strategic deployment in which "the major powers are the key, the surrounding region is foremost, developing countries are the foundation, and multilateralism is the stage."Qu Xing indicated that, against the backdrop of the international financial crisis, the position of the Asia-Pacific region in the overall international strategic situation has risen, and regional cooperation has also entered a critical develop
 ment stage. He noted that everyone has generally increased the importance attached to and their investments in the said region, nor is China an exception. Unlike Europe and the United States, development in this region is full of vitality and potential, with abundant reserve strength. In particular, with the collective rise of developing countries such as the "Four Gold Bricks" (BRICs: Brazil, Russia, India, and China), their weight in the international economy is gradually rising and they are gradually becoming stakeholders with regard to resolving global problems. Omnidirectional Deployment, Not Favoring One To the Neglect of the OtherHowever, Qu Xing pointed out that, owing to historical legacy factors, there has been no end to hot-button issues in the Asia-Pacific region, and areas such as the Korean peninsula, the East China Sea, and the South China Sea, etc., involve the interests of each party, and there are still some significant variables in regional development. Ch
 ina plans to play a constructive role in the region, protecting development opportunities, lowering security risks, and calling on everyone toseek common ground while accepting that differences exist until they can seek common ground and dispel the differences. He stressed that China will not favor one to the neglect of the other, but will shift the degree of importance attached to diplomacy with major powers such as the United States and Russia to Asia, strengthening the overall balance and continuing to enrich and improve its omnidirectional diplomatic deployment.Qu Xing indicated that, at the Shanghai World Expo, personnel at every level from the central authorities to local government departments are engaged in the work of diplomacy, either directly or indirectly, and it represents a major new development in Chinese diplomacy. Under the "World Expo diplomacy" platform, China will tend to be more multi-dimensional with regard to its diplomatic operations, and furthermore 
 will continue to play a "summit diplomacy" role, including taking part in the World Conference of Speakers of Parliaments, which is held every five years, and the G20 summit that will be held in June. He stated that, with the constant changes and improvements in science and technology, communications are becoming more convenient every day, while international relations are exhibiting a diversified development trend, not only not stopping at the bilateral summit diplomacy and the ministries of foreign affairs level, but rather involving even more ministries and commissions, with transnational and omnidirectional interactions, that is, a new trend of going from "international" to "transnational" development.(Description of Source: Hong Kong Wen Wei Po Online in Chinese -- Website of PRC-owned daily newspaper with a very small circulation; ranked low in "credibility" in Hong Kong opinion surveys due to strong pro-Beijing bias; has good access to PRC sources; URL: http://www.wen
 weipo.com)Attachments:wwp0601b.pdfMaterial in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International EconomicInternational PoliticalLeader,INTERNATIONAL ISSUESIP
City: Hong Kong
Geographic Code: CHN,JPN,PRK,RUS,KOR,USA
Geographic Name: China,Japan,North Korea,Russia,South Korea,United States,Asia,Eurasia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,SOUTH KOREA,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Eurasia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T11:34:41Z --------------------
Title: Highlights: Taiwan Opinion 1 Jun 10
Journal: Taiwan -- OSC Summary
Text:
- According to a column in Chung-kuo Shih-pao by Chang Ching-wei, the KMT is facing an unfavorable situation in the upcoming five municipality elections. In the two municipalities in the south, the KMT has no winning chance at all. In the two municipalities in the north, the KMT is being challenged by the DPP's two strongest stars -- Su Chen-chang and Tsai Ing-wen. Recently, it is even being said that the KMT would not win easily in mid-Taiwan either. If both Su Chen-chang and Tsai Ing-wen fail in the elections, the probability for them to form a Su-Tsai ticket in the 2012 presidential election is high. However, if both of them win or if only one of them wins, the composition of the DPP's presidential ticket would be complicated. For the KMT, it is not necessarily true that it would lose the presidential election if it loses all the five municipality elections, but the candidacy of Ma Ying-jeou will be questioned. The DPP is now again advocating: "circumvent the central autho
 rities through the localities." The slogan sounds great, the article says, but its force is not as strong as before because the DPP's image is no longer clean and fresh though it looks like it is recovering from the Chen Shui-bian scandal. On the other hand, the KMT should be alarmed by a phenomenon that the administrative performance of DPP local chiefs is generally regarded as better than that of the KMT people, the article says. (Taipei Chung-Kuo Shih-Pao (Internet Version-WWW) in Chinese -- Internet version of daily newspaper provides good coverage of political affairs, generally takes a pro-unification stance. Root URL as of filing time:http://www.chinatimes.com.tw/ http://www.chinatimes.com.tw ) "Debt Crisis Leads to War Risk"- According to a column in Chung-kuo Shih-pao by Nanfang Shuo, a country with a heavy debt may launch a war in a bid to cancel all the debts after winning the war, though people may not notice the situation. At present, the United States is in no 
 doubt the world's biggest debtor, and China has replaced Japan to become the biggest creditor nation. So, China fears war. Losing a war, China would also lose the chance to rise peacefully. Moreover, its credit may also therefore be canceled. The United States had made up stories to justify its invasion of Iraq, and the recent Ch'o'nan (Cheonan) event is also curious. Both North Korean leader Kim Jong Il and Iraq's Saddam Husayn were easily smeared, and war may therefore ensue. So, making the Ch'o'nan event end peacefully has become a big challenge for China. (Chung-kuo Shih-pao) "Yukio Hatoyama Will Step Down Soon"- According to an article in Lien-ho Pao by He Si-shen, Fu-jen University professor, Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama made the mistake of promising to overturn an agreement Japan had signed with the United States in 1996 over the relocation of a US base in Okinawa. The Yukio Hatoyama administration's replacement plan was turned down by the United States, and
  in the process, Japan's attempt to strive for an equal relationship with the United States has again been proved to be a dream. Consequently, Yukio Hatoyama's approval rate dropped from 70 percent to less than 20 percent. In order to regain the people's trust before a parliamentary election, the ruling Democratic Party of Japan may have to replace its leader, the article says, and after the election, the Democratic Party of Japan will also adjust its line to the center-right in an effort to win over the support of conservative forces. (Taipei Lien-ho Pao (Internet Version-WWW) in Chinese - Website of a leading daily newspaper which consistently favors pan-blue politicians and issues. Root URL as of filing time:http://www.udnnews.com.tw/ http://www.udnnews.com.tw ) "Opening Songshan Airport for Rich Men Endangers National Defense"- According to an article in Tzu-yu Shih-pao by Chen Ching-tien, Taochiang Technology and Management College assistant professor, President Ma is g
 oing to open Songshan Airport to entrepreneurs' private jets despite the Defense Ministry's reiteration that a direct air link with China through Songshan Airport will endanger national security. Moreover, by allowing entrepreneurs' private jets to use Songshan Airport, the government is actually using taxpayers' money to serve a handful of rich men. The situation does not conform to the principle of fairness and justice, the article says. (Taipei Tzu-yu Shih-pao -- Internet version of widely read Taiwan daily which supports Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) position and often exhibits a pro-independence bias, especially in its editorial and other opinion pieces. Root URL as of filing time:http://www.libetytimes.com.tw/ http://www.libetytimes.com.tw )Attachments:47380ED7422DE6FF002577350022BBA6.docMaterial in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be d
 irected to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational Political,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: 
Geographic Code: TWN,USA,JPN,PRK
Geographic Name: Taiwan,United States,Japan,North Korea,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,TAIWAN,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,JAPANIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T11:56:04Z --------------------
Title: To request additional processing, call OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or 202-338-6735 or e-mail at EAG_Korea@rccb.osis.gov.
Journal: Press Selection List
Text:
Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalLeader,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTIP
City: Seoul
Geographic Code: PRK,KOR,USA
Geographic Name: North Korea,South Korea,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,SOUTH KOREA,NORTH KOREA,CHINA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T11:18:17Z --------------------
Title: Xinhua: "Senior Chinese Political Advisor Meets Delegation of American Foreign Policy Council"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
BEIJING, June 1 (Xinhua) -- A senior Chinese political advisor Tuesday met with former U.S. National Security Advisor Robert McFarlane, who was in Beijing heading a delegation from the American Foreign Policy Council.China-U.S. relations had become one of the most important bilateral ties in the world, said Li Jinhua, vice chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) National Committee.China would like to work with the United States to implement the consensus of their state leaders, expand pragmatic cooperation, respect each other's core interests and properly handle their differences and sensitive issues, so as to continuously develop China-U.S. relations in a positive, cooperative and comprehensive manner, said Li.McFarlane said U.S.-China relations had a promising future, with increasing common interests and the cooperation areas beyond the bilateral scope.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for E
 nglish-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational EconomicInternational Political
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T11:39:48Z --------------------
Title: ROK Daily: 'US Must Remain Strongly Involved in East Asia'
Journal: The Korea Times Online
Text:
The United States must enhance its stabilizing role in East Asia, at a time when the region faces a number of volatile situations and China has yet to show a "sense of responsibility" in dealing with the international community, a U.S. senator said Tuesday."The presence of the United States in East Asia has been an enormously valuable balancing force since the end of World War II," Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.) told a forum at the Westin Chosun Hotel in Seoul. "It is vitally important for us to remain strongly involved, not simply military but economically and culturally (as well)."Webb, chairman of the Senate committee on East Asia and Pacific affairs, said volatile situations throughout the region, including those in Thailand, Myanmar and on the Korean Peninsula, call for the United States to take the role of "principled arbiter."Webb, who met with President Lee Myung-bak (Yi Myo'ng-pak) Monday to discuss the response to the Ch'o'nan (Cheonan) incident, departed for Thailand Tuesda
 y to meet with leaders there. He will wrap up his Asian trip with a visit to Myanmar.His remarks came as Seoul prepares to bring the sinking of its Navy vessel Ch'o'nan (Cheonan), which it says was torpedoed by North Korea, before the U.N. Security Council. Support from Beijing, a permanent, veto-wielding member of the council, is seen as vital for Seoul to secure punitive measures there.Webb said the United States must encourage China, the North's last benefactor, to be "more open and overt" in approaching challenges on the Korean Peninsula."The Chinese government needs to actively assist in resolving these issues rather than sitting back and making bland statements, and maybe doing something behind the scenes," he said.Webb, who has travelled extensively in Asia as a government official and journalist, believes China's rapid economic emergence has not been balanced with a "proper sense of national responsibility" when it comes to its relations with other countries in the r
 egion.The senator cited China's actions in the East and South China Seas, where Japan and Vietnam have each accused it of violating their sovereign rights, as examples of behavior unbefitting of a global leader.Webb said China's position on the Ch'o'nan (Cheonan) incident when it reaches the UNSC will be a barometer of its willingness to cooperate with the international community."It is a good opportunity for the rest of the world to observe and comment on whether China is proceeding in a mature fashion as a member of the international community," he said. "It's a test of whether it can participate among the leadership of the world community."In addition to maintaining security guarantees and encouraging cooperation from Beijing, Webb said the United States must increase its economic activity in the region.Webb vigorously advocated the timely ratification of the stalled Korea-U.S. FTA (KORUS FTA), saying it would "send a signal to the rest of the region about how we are work
 ing together on many levels."The deal was signed three years ago but still awaits ratification by the legislatures of both countries. Washington has been reluctant due to what it views as lopsided auto trade and restricted shipments of American beef.The senator described the chances of the FTA's ratification before the U.S. midterm elections in November as "not good but not completely out of the question."Webb, after meeting with officials in Seoul, said he is "reinvigorated" to urge President Barack Obama and Senate leaders to approve the pact this year.(Description of Source: Seoul The Korea Times Online in English -- Website of The Korea Times, an independent and moderate English-language daily published by its sister daily Hanguk Ilbo from which it often draws articles and translates into English for publication; URL: http://www.koreatimes.co.kr)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from th
 e copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: LeaderMilitaryInternational EconomicInternational Political
City: Seoul
Geographic Code: KOR,USA,MMR,CHN,PRK
Geographic Name: South Korea,United States,Burma,China,North Korea,Asia,Americas,East Asia,South East Asia,North Americas,INDO CHINA,THAILAND,SOUTH KOREA,SOUTHEAST ASIA,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T10:42:35Z --------------------
Title: This product lists selected reports carried in the Turkish Islamist press on 1 June. To request further processing, please contact OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735, or fax (703) 613-5735.
Journal: Turkey -- OSC Summary
Text:
Safak publishes a front-page report which slams "the pirates of Tel Aviv" for "turning six ships in the Freedom Flotilla (carrying humanitarian aid to Gaza) into concentration camps in international waters before the very eyes of the world" in an operation yesterday that "claimed the lives of some ten people and left as many as 50 others injured."  The report also highlights Prime Minister Erdogan's remarks accusing Israel of committing an act of "state terrorism" in attacking the aid convoy for Gaza.Also front-paged is a report entitled "Israeli Involvement in Iskenderun Attack," which asserts that the terrorist attack on a naval base in Iskenderun yesterday is being described as a Mosad-aided operation intended to prevent the Turkish military from taking action against Israel's "terrorist" raid on the flotilla headed for Gaza.In a 592-word article entitled "To Those Who Want Concrete Evidence Against Israel" on page 8, Yeni Safak columnist Fehmi Koru, writing under the pseu
 donym Taha Kivanc, criticizes certain commentators for refraining from commenting on what he describes as an obvious connection between the Israeli military operation against the aid convoy for Gaza and the terrorist assault on the naval base in Iskenderun the same day on the grounds that there is no "concrete information" to support such a connection.  Koru claims that no country has a more objectionable track record than Israel as a state conducting secret operations worldwide.In a 322-word article entitled "Nobody, Nothing Could Appease Us" on page 11, Yeni Safak columnist Ibrahim Karagul asserts that Turkey will make Israel sorely regret ever having attacked the aid convoy for Gaza and that it will reject any Israeli statements citing extenuating circumstances for its act of "piracy."   He describes the Israeli operation as one intended to "punish" Turkey for conducting policies that have challenged Israel's regional agenda, signing the latest uranium swap deal with Iran
 , and establishing regional partnerships with countries like Syria.  Karagul also cites Yeni Safak writer Hakan Albayrak among the "heroes" aboard the Turkish vessel attacked by Israel from whom they have not received word since the Israeli raid took place. (processing) (Istanbul Yeni Safak (Ankara edition) in Turkish - Daily targeting Islamic reformists; close to the ruling Justice and Development Party - URL:http://www.yenisafak.com http://www.yenisafak.com ) VakitUnder the banner headline, "Zionist Curs," Vakit carries a front-page report which blasts "rabid" Israeli troops for carrying out a "bloody" attack on the flotilla of relief aid for Gaza.Also front-paged is a report entitled "They Will Not Get Away With It," which highlights Prime Minister Erdogan's remarks announcing that Israel will not be able to "get away with" carrying out its latest act of "state terrorism."In a 420-word article entitled "How Turkey Needs To Respond to Israel" on page 3, Vakit columnist Abd
 urrahim Karakoc makes a case for "responding in kind" to Israel's military operation against the aid convoy for Gaza.  He describes Israel as a "rabid dog" that needs to be "quarantined" wherever it is spotted and caught and calls for a public invasion of the Israeli embassy in Turkey in retaliation for the attack on the aid flotilla. Vakitannounces in a short notice on page 7 that Mustafa Ozcan has been unable to submit his article today because he is among those detained in the "cruel" Israeli attack on one of the ships carrying relief supplies to Gaza.In a 476-word article entitled "Terrorist Israel Done for Now" on page 10, Vakit columnist Serdar Arseven asserts that Israel has "pissed on the wall of a mosque" (done something obviously unwise for which it will have to pay dearly, etc) in "killing Muslims from Anatolia taking relief aid to Muslims living in occupied lands."  He claims that the attack on the aid convoy signals a major victory for Muslims in the sense that 
 the "civilian massacre" carried out by Israel will cause "Zionists" worldwide to keep a low profile from now on, adding that "any Jews who do not want to be brought to account together with terrorist Israel will have to disapprove of terrorist Israel" from now on.In a 1,017-word article entitled "Israel Will Drown in its Own Hatred and in the Blood That It Has Shed" on page 11, Vakit Editor-in-Chief Hasan Karakaya asserts that Turkey should suspend all military and economic treaties with Israel and sever its diplomatic ties with this country in response to the "worse-than-beastly" attack on the aid convoy for Gaza, adding that as a first reaction, Ankara should immediately declare the Israeli ambassador persona non grata.  (processing)In a 554-word article entitled "We Have Been Shot, My People" on page 11, Vakit columnist Abdurrahman Dilipak criticizes the Israeli operation against the flotilla of humanitarian aid for Gaza as an act of "gross defiance" against Turkey, the I
 slamic world, and humanity at large.  He slams US President Barack Obama as well as British, Russian, and Chinese leaders, and regional Islamic governments for "retaining their silence" in response to the attack, adding that Turkey should do what it can to make the entire world understand that Israel has committed a crime against humanity.   (Istanbul Anadolu'da Vakit (Internet Version-WWW) in Turkish - Islamic fundamentalist daily - URL:http://www.vakit.com.tr http://www.vakit.com.tr ) ZamanUnder the banner headline, "World up in Arms," Zaman carries a front-page report which highlights reactions from the international community to the Israeli attack on the aid convoy for Gaza.In a 524-word article entitled "Analyzing an Act of Piracy" on page 19, Zaman columnist Fikret Ertan censures the Israeli military operation against the aid convoy for Gaza as an unprecedented example of roguery and piracy.  He also asserts that the Israeli attack was an accident waiting to happen fro
 m the start and criticizes Turkish authorities for not adopting preemptive measures to protect the convoy such as by warning Israel about the consequences of a military operation beforehand.In a 501-word article entitled "Why the Pirate State Attacked" on page 23, Zaman columnist Ihsan Dagi asserts that Israel has lost both its moral and legal legitimacy as a result of its "calculated" attack on the aid convoy for Gaza.  He argues that the attack is aimed at provoking Turkey into adopting sharp measures against Israel which will make Turkey seem incapable of carrying out its regional "peace mission" including its endeavors to broker a peaceful solution to the crisis over Iran's nuclear program.  He goes on to claim that the Israeli attack is also intended to undermine Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan's rising regional popularity.In a 523-word article entitled "The First Day of a Dirty War" on page 23, Zaman columnist Mumtazer Turkone questions the aims of the latest "dirty war
 " waged by the PKK against Turkey "apparently" in line with PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan's 28 May "warning" that a "medium-intensity war" should be expected after 31 May.  Turkone argues that rather than having any political goals, the PKK's latest terrorist campaign is based on certain "tactical priorities" none of which have anything to do with the "Kurdish issue."  He also claims that this "dirty war" is in the interests of nobody but the Ergenekon network.   (Istanbul Zaman (Ankara Edition) in Turkish - moderate pro-Islamic daily supportive of Nurcu Sect leader Fethullah Gulen - URLhttp://www.zaman.com.tr http://www.zaman.com.tr ) Today's ZamanIn an 838-word article entitled "Pondering a Response to the Israeli Attack" on page 3, Today's Zaman columnist Abdullah Bozkurt refers to the attack on the aid convoy for Gaza as "a co lossal public relations disaster for Israel" that will strain Turkish-Israeli ties significantly.  He also predicts that the Erdogan government will 
 find itself under increasing public pressure to react strongly to the Israeli attack. (processing)In a 665-word article entitled "Turkish Military Barracks Require Deeper Scrutiny" on page 4, Today's Zaman columnist Lale Kemal continues to warn the Government about the "inhuman, degrading treatment and punishment of conscripts" at certain military headquarters in Turkey. (processing)In a 753-word article entitled "On the Way to Gaza" on page 15, Today's Zaman columnist Ali Bulac links Israel opposition to the delivery of humanitarian aid to Gaza to the perception that allowing relief supplies to be shipped to Gaza "through Palestinian waters" will amount to recognizing a "two-state solution" to the Palestinian issue. (processing)In an 813-word article entitled "Israel Attacks in International Waters" on page 15, Today's Zaman columnist Hasan Kanbolat urges the Turkish public to hold only the "extremely right-wing Israeli government" responsible for the attack on the flotilla
  carrying relief aid to Gaza and calls for support for "Israeli intellectuals" who stand for peace. (processing) (Istanbul Today's Zaman (Ankara Edition) in English - moderate pro-Islamic daily supportive of Nurcu Sect leader Fethullah Gulen - Root URL:http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web ) Milli GazeteUnder the headline, "A Dog Looking for Trouble (Will Urinate on the Wall of a Mosque)," Milli Gazete publishes a front-page report which asserts that "terrorist" Israel's attack on "our ships in international waters" constitutes a "crime of war" according to the Geneva Convention as well as a casus belli.In a 297-word article entitled "Israel Shoots Humanity" on page 9, Milli Gazete columnist Abdullah Ozkan asserts that a failure by the international community to bring Israel to account over its treatment of the "heroes" on the relief vessels intercepted en route to Gaza will make nonsense of the peace messages issued by global leaders at various
  platforms and prove the so-called "new international order" to be based on injustice and oppression.In a 364-word article entitled "Is This What 'Zero Problems' is About?" on page 13, Milli Gazete columnist Fatih Sertyuz cites the Turkish government's "cowardice" and "indifference" to the woes of the Palestinian people as the source of Israel's "audacity," as displayed most recently in the raid on the relief vessels bound for Gaza.  He also argues that Israel's behavior has exposed the limits of the ruling AKP's policy of "zero problems with neighbors." (Istanbul Milli Gazete (Internet Version-WWW) in Turkish - Mouthpiece of the Felicity Party (SP), affiliated with Necmettin Erbakan's National View Organization - URL:http://www.milligazete.com http://www.milligazete.com )Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. o
 f Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalLeaderMilitaryTerrorism,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT,GOVERNMENTIP
City: 
Geographic Code: TUR,ISR,GZ,USA,IRN,RUS,CHN
Geographic Name: Turkey,Israel,Gaza Strip,United States,Iran,Russia,China,Europe,Middle East,Americas,Eurasia,Asia,South Europe,North Americas,East Asia,MEDITERRANEAN,TURKEY,WESTERN ASIA,ASIA,EUROPE,MIDDLE EAST,ISRAEL,PALESTINEIP
Region: Europe,Middle East,Americas,Eurasia,Asia






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T10:05:15Z --------------------
Title: By People's Daily Online: "Test for new U.S. strategy in Afghanistan, Pakistan"
Journal: Renmin Ribao
Text:
According to the survey, the U.S. and NATO forces have not been so popular among local Afghans with the efforts to win their hearts over a period of time in the Multan and Pashtun areas of Balochistan especially Quetta; many Pashtuns there do not like to recognize the present Afghan government and but want the United States to hold reconciliation talks with Taliban leaders.Ahemide Rashid, a noted Pakistani expert on Taliban, said in his recent signed article that the return of Taliban leadership to Afghan politics is a most realist option though not the best way for the West as the United States and NATO presence cannot not sustain in a long-term point of view.A major operation U.S. Army soldiers launched in support of a planned US-Afghan attack on the largest Taliban controlled town in south Afghanistan in February was the first major attempt to implement the new strategy, and it was easy to seize the town of 80,000 people, almost 610 km southwest of Kabul, but it was very d
 ifficult to foster the government's authority and development project among local people. Although NATO and Afghan forces have 15,000 troops at present, it is still hard for them to stem Taliban forces from re-accumulating strength nearby the town.To date, the current U.S. and NATO military deployment in Kandahar has almost completed and, in this context the Taliban spring offensive has been announced in May. Taliban militants attacked the main NATO Base in south Afghanistan in six days. ... The next day, dozens of Taliban militants attacked the main U.S. military base at Bagram Airfied, killing an American contractor in fighting that last more than eight hours... Such large facilities as Kandahar and Bagram are rare, and the two attacks in the same week show that the militants are capable of complex operations despite NATO military pressure. The Taliban forces have spread out beyond their heartland in the south in recent years to increasingly launch attacks countryside.Furt
 hermore, with the expected U.S. and NATO military operations, Taliban forces will launch more assaults countryside to show their strength.(Description of Source: Beijing People's Daily Online in English -- Internet-only English version of Renmin Ribao, the daily newspaper of the CPC Central Committee. URL: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International Political,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONSIP
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: AFG,CHN,PAK,USA
Geographic Name: Afghanistan,China,Pakistan,United States,Asia,Americas,South Asia,East Asia,North Americas,PAKISTAN,NORTH AMERICA,WESTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,AFGHANISTAN,SOUTHERN ASIA,INDIAN SUBCONTINENT,NATOIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T10:17:36Z --------------------
Title: Highlights: Taiwan KMT News 31 May-1 Jun 10
Journal: OSC Summary
Text:
http://www.cdnews.com.tw/ www.cdnews.com.tw) for 31 May-1 June 2010. Mainland China: All Preparations of Chiang-Chen Talks Are Made for Signing ECFA- Chen Yunlin, chairman of the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS), said arrangements for his fifth round of talks with Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) Chairman Chiang Pin-kung are still undergoing, and all preparations at present are made for signing the cross-strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA). Chen made the above remarks in attending the celebrations for the 20th founding anniversary of the Beijing Association of Taiwan Businesses and a forum on economic cooperation between Beijing and Taiwan on 31 May. As for the media report that the fifth round of Chiang-Chen talks is scheduled for 15 to 20 June, Chen replied vaguely that everything should be arranged properly and that the overall situation is still optimistic, but he did say that the Chiang-Chen talks will not coincide with the 
 cross-strait forum, which is scheduled for 19 to 25 June, as announced by Yang Yi, spokesman of the State Council's Taiwan Affairs Office, recently. Commenting on the media report on the time of the Chiang-Chen talks, Premier Wu Den-yih said on 31 May that the government will brief the public on the matter when the time is ripe. (http://www.cdnews.com.tw/cdnews--site/docDetail.jsp?coluid=106&amp;docid=101179795 http://www.cdnews.com.tw/cdnews--site/docDetail.jsp?coluid=106&amp;docid=101179795 ;http://www.cdnews.com.tw/cdnews--site/docDetail.jsp?coluid=107&amp;docid=101179726 http://www.cdnews.com.tw/cdnews--site/docDetail.jsp?coluid=107&amp;docid=101179726) Lien Chan: Taiwan, Mainland China Cannot Shun Political Issues- In an interview with the Chung-kuo Shih-pao on 31 May, KMT Honorary Chairman Lien Chan said "that is it" for cross-strait economic issues, but both sides of the strait cannot shun political issues in the future. In view of the fact that the Ma administration is still not rea
 dy to have political dialogs with Beijing, Lien said the state leader should be responsible for the matter and face it, whether he wants to hold such talks or not. While political consultations across the strait are unavoidable, Lien Chan disclosed that some tangible and intangible early work has been started, and academic circles and professionals have been engaged in the discussion of topics nobody wanted to touch on in the past. "This is a fact, not just a wish," Lien said. Lien expressed his support for the ECFA, but facing the green camp's plan to obstructing the signing of the ECFA via a referendum, Lien disclosed that many Chinese officials visiting Taiwan had complained to him privately that mainland China had made so many concessions to Taiwan, that the ECFA has become something like an "unequal treaty" between the two sides. (http://www.cdnews.com.tw/cdnews--site/docDetail.jsp?coluid=107&amp;docid=101179932 http://www.cdnews.com.tw/cdnews--site/docDetail.jsp?coluid=107
 &amp;docid=101179932 ;http://www.cdnews.com.tw/cdnews--site/docDetail.jsp?coluid=107&amp;docid=101179930 http://www.cdnews.com.tw/cdnews--site/docDetail.jsp?coluid=107&amp;docid=101179930 ;http://www.cdnews.com.tw/cdnews--site/docDetail.jsp?coluid=107&amp;docid=101179931 http://www.cdnews.com.tw/cdnews--site/docDetail.jsp?coluid=107&amp;docid=101179931) TAITRA Head, KMT Deputy Secretary General Hail 20th Anniversary of Beijing Association of Taiwan Businesses- Speaking at a ceremony marking the 20th founding anniversary of Beijing Association of Taiwan Businesses on 31 May, Wang Chih-kang, chairman of the Taiwan External Trade Development Council (TAITRA), said the TAITRA plans to open sales centers for Taiwan goods in many cities in mainland China, which will be an important part of its strategy to market Taiwan products. According to the TAITRA, a sales center for Taiwan goods in Nanjing will start operation in mid-September and another one in Beijing will start test operation by the end of S
 eptember. In a separate report by the China News Service, Zheng Lizhong, deputy director of the State Council's Taiwan Affairs Office, and KMT Deputy Secretary General Chang Jung-kung also spoke at the ceremony. Chang said Taiwan businesses' development in mainland China is the extension of Taiwan's economic strength, and only when both sides of the strait enjoy harmonious development in their relations, can Taiwan businesses grow bigger in mainland China. ARATS Chairman Chen Yunlin also attended the ceremony. According to CNA 's report, KMT Honorary Chairmen Lien Chan and Wu Poh-hsiung, and Beijing Mayor Guo Jinlong sent congratulatory messages to the ceremony, while the China News Service report also mentions KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou and SEF Chairman Chiang Pin-kung among those sending congratulatory messages. (http://www.cdnews.com.tw/cdnews--site/docDetail.jsp?coluid=107&amp;docid=101179866 http://www.cdnews.com.tw/cdnews--site/docDetail.jsp?coluid=107&amp;docid=101179866 ;http
 ://www.cdnews.com.tw/cdnews--site/docDetail.jsp?coluid=107&amp;docid=101179813 http://www.cdnews.com.tw/cdnews--site/docDetail.jsp?coluid=107&amp;docid=101179813) MOEA Official Says Content of ECFA More Important Than Time of Signing- Commenting on the media report that the fifth round of Chiang-Chen talks will be held in Shanghai to sign the ECFA, Bureau of Foreign Trade Director-General Huang Chih-peng, who had avoided talking about the ECFA openly, told the CNA on 31 May that while it remains the negotiating team's objective to complete the signing of the ECFA at the Chiang-Chen talks in June, the content of the ECFA is more important than the time of its signing. He stressed that Taiwan will not sign the ECFA until both sides come to a rational result. Huang would not confirm whether it was true that the Chinese side did not agree to include Taiwan's machine tool products and some petrochemical products into the early harvest list, but well-placed sources said that the Chinese s
 ide had been unable to accept the explanation that competitors of Taiwan's high- and mid-end machine tool products are Japanese, American, and European makers, not Chinese manufacturers making low-end products. (http://www.cdnews.com.tw/cdnews--site/docDetail.jsp?coluid=107&amp;docid=101179796 http://www.cdnews.com.tw/cdnews--site/docDetail.jsp?coluid=107&amp;docid=101179796) Foreign Minister: International Law Not Applicable to Japan's Action of Redrawing ADIZ- Japan's plan to redraw its Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) west of its Yonaguni Island is "unacceptable," Foreign Minister Yang Chin-tien told the legislature on 31 May. However, he also said that current international law does not govern the demarcation of the ADIZ, and a country can make its own decision based on its domestic law. Yang said that although Japan can redraw the ADIZ unilaterally according to its own law, Taiwan, as its neighboring country, should state its stand clearly, and the Ministry of Foreign Aff
 airs (MOFA) had told Japan it was unacceptable after the Ministry of National Defense studied the issue and informed the MOFA of its opinion. Commenting on a report that the United States has agreed with Japan about its plan to redraw the ADIZ, Yang said Taiwan and the United States had not contacted each other over the issue. (http://www.cdnews.com.tw/cdnews--site/docDetail.jsp?coluid=108&amp;docid=101179125 http://www.cdnews.com.tw/cdnews--site/docDetail.jsp?coluid=108&amp;docid=101179125) TSU Accuses Government of Misleading over ECFA Referendum- The government is misleading the public by saying that the petition for a referendum on the ECFA should not be approved, as it involves issues on "taxation" and "investment," Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) Chairman Huang Kun-hui told domestic and foreign media at a press conference on 1 June. He said that KMT high-ranking officials held an emergency meeting on the previous day and decided to block the referendum petition, as the Referendu
 m Review Commission (RRC) is set to announce its ruling on whether to approve the petition on 3 June. Huang called on RRC members to exercise their power independently and based on their conscience and professionalism. In refuting government officials' argument that a referendum on the ECFA should not be approved, because it involves the issues of "taxation" and "investment," Huang said the government had contradicted itself, for it had held a referendum on whether to introduce casinos into Penghu, an issue also involving taxation and investment. Former vice president Annette Lu said members of the World Trade Organization (WTO), such as Taiwan and China, should sign free trade agreements; the international community will think Taiwan no longer insists on its sovereignty, if President Ma Ying-jeou signs the ECFA with Beijing. (http://www.cdnews.com.tw/cdnews--site/docDetail.jsp?coluid=107&amp;docid=101180250 http://www.cdnews.com.tw/cdnews--site/docDetail.jsp?coluid=107&amp;docid=10
 1180250)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalLeader,FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: 
Geographic Code: TWN,CHN,JPN,USA
Geographic Name: Taiwan,China,Japan,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,TAIWAN,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,JAPAN,WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATIONIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T10:16:01Z --------------------
Title: To request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735; or email: oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
Journal: Renmin Ribao Overseas Edition
Text:
(Description of Source: Beijing Renmin Ribao Overseas Edition in Chinese -- daily newspaper of the CPC Central committee targeting Overseas Chinese audiences (People's Daily Overseas Edition))Attachments:rmv0531b.pdfMaterial in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic EconomicInternational EconomicInternational Political,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT,INTERNATIONAL ISSUES,FORECASTSIP
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T10:17:39Z --------------------
Title: Xinhua: "DPRK Accuses U.S. of Straining Situation on Korean Peninsula"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
PYONGYANG, June 1 (Xinhua) -- The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) on Tuesday accused the United States of straining the situation on the Korean Peninsula, the official KCNA news agency reported.A commentary carried by Rodong Sinmun said the United States, regarding the sinking of "Cheonan" as "a golden opportunity to ignite the second Korean War," is aimed at "internationalizing sanctions against the DPRK and using South Korea as a servant for carrying out its Asian strategy.""It is clear that the case is a product of the moves to justify the permanent presence of the U.S. forces in South Korea," the commentary said.The case of the warship sinking also helped Washington settle the controversial issue of the U.S. military base in Japan's Futenma, it added.The commentary warned that the anti-DPRK campaign of the U.S. and South Korean authorities had created a "touch-and-go situation" on the peninsula and put the process of denuclearizing the peninsula "on the verge
  of collapse.""Cheonan," a South Korean naval ship with 104 crew members onboard, sank on March 26 near the maritime border with the DPRK after an unexplained explosion, killing 46 sailors.South Korea released the results of a multinational investigation on May 20, which concluded that "Cheonan" was torpedoed by a DPRK submarine.The DPRK vehemently rejected the accusation and warned that any retaliation would lead to an "all-out" war.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: EnergyEnvironment
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: JPN,KOR,USA
Geographic Name: Japan,South Korea,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,SOUTH KOREA,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T10:05:16Z --------------------
Title: Xinhua: "Afghan Government Tightens Security Ahead of Peace Jirga"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
KABUL, June 1 (Xinhua) -- The government of Afghanistan has beefed up security measures ahead of opening a national peace conference.The National Consultative Peace Jirga or assembly is scheduled inaugurating on Wednesday."The full proof security arrangements have been put on place," Gul Aqa Ahadi the spokesman for Peace Jirga told Xinhua on Tuesday, but he did not provide more information.Aimed at finding ways and means to end the protracted war and ensure durable peace in the country, some 1,600 people including tribal chieftains, legislators, government officials and social figures from across the country are going to attend the three-day Jirga.According to local media reports, security has been tightened as over 12,000 security personnel have been deployed to sensitive places and hilltops surrounding the venue held inside a giant tent.All schools and government departments will remain closed on Wednesday and Thursday in the capital as part of security measures, officials 
 said.However, Taliban militants in a statement sent to media on Tuesday described the Consultative Peace Jirga as phony and vowed to continue Jihad or holy war against United States and its allies in Afghanistan.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic Political,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: AFG,USA
Geographic Name: Afghanistan,United States,Asia,Americas,South Asia,North Americas,AFGHANISTAN,CHINA,WESTERN ASIA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T08:37:07Z --------------------
Title: AFP: Russian Experts To Review Findings of Investigation Into ROK Warship Sinking
Journal: AFP
Text:
(Description of Source: Hong Kong AFP in English -- Hong Kong service of the independent French press agency Agence France-Presse)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International EconomicInternational PoliticalLeaderMilitary,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Hong Kong
Geographic Code: CHN,JPN,PRK,RUS,KOR,USA
Geographic Name: China,Japan,North Korea,Russia,South Korea,United States,Asia,Eurasia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,RUSSIA,USSR,AMERICAS,ASIA,SOUTH KOREA,EUROPE,NORTH KOREA,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Asia,Eurasia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T07:13:34Z --------------------
Title: Xinhua: "Indonesia Exports Surge in April"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
JAKARTA, June 1 (Xinhua) -- Indonesia's exports in April increased significantly by 42.56 percent to 12.05 billion U.S. dollars from that of the same period last year, the National Statistic Bureau announced here Tuesday.The rise was contributed by the increase of non-oil-and-gas exports by 36.79 percent and oil-and-gas exports by 75.65 percent, head of the bureau Rusman Heriawan told a press conference here.Japan, followed by the United States and China has bought most of Indonesia's products in April.Indonesia's exports are seen to rebound at 15.8 percent this year, finance ministry has said, after decreasing by 14.98 percent to 116.49 billion U.S. dollars in 2009.On concern of the crisis in Greek, Heriawan said that as long as the economy in three countries in the territory, Germany, French and the United Kingdom, is still strong, the crisis would not significantly impact on Indonesia's exports to Europe, which are account of 11.4 percent.On import, it surged by 71.98 perc
 ent to 11.53 billion U.S. dollars in April of this year from that of the same period last year, the head of the agency said."Most of the import is comprised of food and raw material for industry," he said.China, followed by Japan and Singapore is the most contributive country on Indonesia's imports in the first four months of this year.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International Economic,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT,FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTSIP
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,DEU,IDN,JPN,SGP,GBR,USA
Geographic Name: China,Germany,Indonesia,Japan,Singapore,United Kingdom,United States,Asia,Europe,Americas,East Asia,South East Asia,North Europe,North Americas,SOUTHEAST ASIA,INDONESIA,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Europe,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T07:09:29Z --------------------
Title: Yonhap headline: "China Helps Reduce Military Tensions on Korean Peninsula: Analyst" by Kim Young-gyo
Journal: Yonhap
Text:
(Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: LeaderProliferationInternational EconomicMilitaryInternational Political
City: Seoul
Geographic Code: CHN,JPN,PRK,RUS,KOR,USA
Geographic Name: China,Japan,North Korea,Russia,South Korea,United States,Asia,Eurasia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,SOUTH KOREA,NORTH KOREA,CHINA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIAIP
Region: Asia,Eurasia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T06:21:50Z --------------------
Title: Report by Llanesca T. Panti: Chinese envoy urges diplomacy in Korean crisis
Journal: The Manila Times Online
Text:
China's Ambassador to the Philippines Liu Jianchao has cautioned against using violence in dealing with the Korean peninsula rift, saying that both North and South Korea should exercise self restraint.Liu noted that while China has been very concerned about the violence in inter-Korean maritime border that led to the March 26 sinking of South Korea's patrol vessel Cheonan, it would take action in easing the tension there through diplomacy."We have to exercise outmost restraint, refrain from doing things that could make the situation more complicated than it already is," Liu told journalists in a recent press briefing.China, a known ally of North Korea, earlier stopped short of slapping sanctions against Pyongyang.North Korea has already threatened to wage an all-out war against South Korea should Seoul insist on its charge that Pyongyang fire a torpedo at the 1,200-ton Cheonan that led to the ship's sinking and the death of its 46 crewmen, as reported by the international tea
 m of civilian and military investigators.Pyongyang has angrily denied Seoul's accusations, but maintained that ships from South Korea are intruding into its waters.In easing such tension, Liu noted that China would like North Korea to engage in dialogue by going back to the Six-Party talks that was formed after Pyongyang walked out of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2003.The six-party talks that used to include the two Koreas, Japan, United States, China and Russia sought to come up with a peaceful solution to heightened international community concerns resulting from North Korea's nuclear weapons program. Pyongyang, however, left the talks in April 2009 after the United Nations (UN) condemned its failed satellite launch conducted in the same month."We are always there to convince North Korea to go back to the six party talks. It has proven that it is the best way to move forward. It is very, very important that parties should have flexibility and goodwill," Liu poin
 ted out.Earlier, the Philippines strongly condemned the acts of provocation that threaten regional security and peace and stability in the Korean Peninsula and has called for adherence to international norms and codes of conduct, as well as complying with UN Security Council Resolutions 1874 and 1718.The said UN resolutions impose further economic and commercial sanctions on North Korea and allows UN member states to search North Korean cargo in light of the underground and claimed nuclear test conducted by the communist state in 2009 and 2006.(Description of Source: Manila The Manila Times Online in English -- Website of one of the Philippines' oldest privately owned newspapers. Owner Dante Ang is known to have worked closely with Arroyo ever since she was a senator. Circulation: 187,446; URL: http://www.manilatimes.net/)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquirie
 s regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International Political
City: Manila
Geographic Code: PHL,CHN,KOR,PRK,JPN,USA,RUS
Geographic Name: Philippines,China,South Korea,North Korea,Japan,United States,Russia,Asia,Americas,Eurasia,South East Asia,East Asia,North Americas,SOUTH KOREA,SOUTHEAST ASIA,NORTH KOREA,CHINA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,PHILIPPINES,ASIAIP
Region: Asia,Americas,Eurasia






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T06:02:34Z --------------------
Title: AFP: China Bank Adviser Says Property Woes More Severe Than US
Journal: AFP
Text:
(Description of Source: Hong Kong AFP in English -- Hong Kong service of the independent French press agency Agence France-Presse)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic EconomicInternational Economic,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT,MONETARY POLICY,REGULATIONIP
City: Hong Kong
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Friday February 5, 2010 T13:58:08Z --------------------
Title: Updated version: refiling to clear non-acknowledgement of item; Report by Hwang Doo-hyong: "U.S., S. Korea Under Discussion on Ways Against N. Korean Missile Attack: Official"
Journal: Yonhap
Text:
(Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: ProliferationInternational PoliticalMilitary,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRSIP
City: Seoul
Geographic Code: KOR,PRK,USA,RUS,CHN,JPN
Geographic Name: South Korea,North Korea,United States,Russia,China,Japan,Asia,Americas,Eurasia,East Asia,North Americas,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,SOUTH KOREA,NORTH KOREAIP
Region: Asia,Americas,Eurasia






-------------------- Friday February 5, 2010 T12:19:18Z --------------------
Title: This Year's 1St Launch Of Block Of 3 GLONASS Sats Planned Mar 2
Journal: ITAR-TASS
Text:
intervention)MOSCOW, February 5 (Itar-Tass) - The first in the current year launch of a block of 3 satellites of the GLONASS global positioning system is planned for March 2 from the Baikonur cosmodrome, the press service of the Yuzhny space centre said on Friday.The launch of the 3 GLONASS-M satellites will be carried out with the use of the Proton-M rocket with the DM-3 upper stage."At present there are two GLONASS-M spacecraft in Baikonur," the press service specified. "The first of them is fully ready for the flight and is in a stow position. The second spacecraft is undergoing pneumatic and electrical tests, the propellant units are being installed on its propulsion system today. The launch of the Proton-M carrier rocket with the 3 GLONASS-M spacecraft is planned for March 2," the service noted.Head of the Russian Federal Space Agency (Roskosmos) Anatoly Perminov said earlier that three launches of three spacecraft of the GLONASS system in each will be carried out this y
 ear, that is 9 spacecraft will be launched.The Central Research Institute of Machine Building (TSNIIMASH) said that as of February 5 "the system's orbital cluster has 22 satellites, 19 of them are in use, one - under temporary maintenance and two are at the stage of withdrawal from the system."GLONASS (GLObal NAvigation Satellite System in English) is a radio-based satellite navigation system, developed by the former Soviet Union and now operated for the RF government by the Russian Space Forces. It is an alternative and complementary to the United States' Global Positioning System (GPS), the Chinese Compass navigation system, and the planned Galileo positioning system of the European Union (EU).Development on the GLONASS began in 1976, with a goal of global coverage by 1991. Beginning on 12 October 1982, numerous rocket launches added satellites to the system until the constellation was completed in 1995. Following completion, the system rapidly fell into disrepair with the
  collapse of the RF economy. Beginning in 2001, Russia committed to restoring the system, and in recent years has diversified, introducing the Indian government as a partner, and accelerated the program with a goal of restoring global coverage by 2009.GLONASS was developed to provide real-time position and velocity determination, initially for use by the Soviet military for navigation and ballistic missile targeting. It was the Soviet Union's second generation satellite navigation system, improving on the Tsiklon system which required one to two hours of signal processing to calculate a location with high accuracy. By contrast, once a GLONASS receiver is tracking the satellite signals, a position fix is available instantly. It is stated that at peak efficiency the system's standard positioning and timing service provide horizontal positioning accuracy within 57-70 meters, vertical positioning within 70 meters, velocity vector measuring within 15 cm/s, and time transfer withi
 n 1 .875s (all within 99.7% probability).A fully operational GLONASS constellation consists of 24 satellites, with 21 used for transmitting signals and three for on-orbit spares, deployed in three orbital planes. Each satellite is identified by a "slot" number, which defines the corresponding orbital plane and the location within the plane; numbers 1-8 are in plane one, 9-16 are in plane two, and 17-24 are in plane three.A characteristic of the GLONASS constellation is that any given satellite only passes over the exact same spot on the Earth every eighth sidereal day. However, as each orbit plane contains eight satellites, a satellite will pass the same place every sidereal day.As with GLONASS' predecessor program, Tsiklon, GLONASS satellites are developed under the leadership of the JSC Information Satellite Systems (formerly called NPO PM), with the assistance of the Institute for Space Device Engineering and the Russian Institute of Radio navigation and Time. Serial prod
 uction of the satellites is primarily accomplished by the company PC Polyot.Over the three decades of development, the satellites themselves have gone through numerous revisions, separated here as generations. The name of each satellite was Uragan (English: hurricane), followed either by a number for operational satellites or by an acronym GVM (English: size weight dummy) for test satellites. All Uragan satellites had a GRAU designation 11F654, and each of them also had the usual ordinal "Cosmos-NNNN" designation.The true first generation of Uragan (also called Glonass) satellites were all 3-axis stabilized vehicles, generally weighing 1,250 kg and were equipped with a modest propulsion system to permit relocation within the constellation. .The second generation of satellites, known as Uragan-M (also called Glonass-M), were developed beginning in 1990 and first launched in 2001.The third generation satellites are known as Uragan-K (also called Glonass-K) spacecraft. These sa
 tellites are designed with a lifetime of 10 to 12 years, a reduced weight of only 750 kg, and offer an additional L-Band navigational signal. They entered service in 2009.In December 2005, Vladimir Putin gave Roskosmos and the Defence Ministry the task to accelerate the restoration of the orbital cluster of the GLONASS system.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalLeaderInternational PoliticalMilitary,GOVERNMENT,PRODUCT APPLICATIONSIP
City: Moscow
Geographic Code: RUS,CHN,IND,USA
Geographic Name: Russia,China,India,United States,Eurasia,Asia,Americas,East Asia,South Asia,North Americas,EUROPE,RUSSIA,USSR,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Eurasia,Asia,Americas






-------------------- Wednesday September 30, 2009 T08:23:03Z --------------------
Title: To request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735; or email: oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
Journal: Liaowang
Text:
(Description of Source: Beijing Liaowang in Chinese -- weekly general affairs journal published by China's official news agency Xinhua, carrying articles on political, social, cultural, international, and economic issues)Attachments:lw0921d.pdfMaterial in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: EnergyInternational EconomicInternational Political,INTERNATIONAL ISSUES,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTIP
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: USA
Geographic Name: United States,Americas,North Americas,CHINA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIAIP
Region: Americas






-------------------- Tuesday September 29, 2009 T11:51:54Z --------------------
Title: As of 1040 GMT, monitored PRC media have not been observed to report the following
Journal: AFP
Text:
officials on Tuesday amid a flurry of diplomatic activity on North Korea's nuclear programmes, Beijing announced, but neither side provided details of the talks.US Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg met Chinese foreign ministry officials including Wu Dawei, China's envoy to six-nation negotiations on North Korean disarmament, a foreign ministry spokeswoman said.Steinberg was due to meet later Tuesday with Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, spokeswoman Jiang Yu added.A spokesman at the US embassy said Steinberg would leave Beijing late in the day, without providing any details of his meetings in the Chinese capital.The US envoy's visit comes amid increasing signs of a possible resumption of the six-nation talks following a series of conciliatory gestures by Pyongyang.Speculation over the future of the talks received a further boost on Monday when China confirmed that Premier Wen Jiabao would visit North Korea next week.Steinberg said on Monday during a stop in Malaysia that 
 Wen's visit would send a "clear message" to the North on the need to return to the negotiating table.The six-party forum hosted by China also includes the two Koreas, Japan, Russia and the United States.North Korea quit the disarmament forum in April in protest at United Nations censure of its long-range rocket launch.In May it conducted its second atomic weapons test, incurring stronger UN sanctions supported even by China, its closest ally.The hardline communist state is pressing for direct talks with Washington to end the nuclear standoff.But this month leader Kim Jong-Il  (Kim Cho'ng-il) appeared to leave the door open for a return to six-party negotiations, telling a visiting Chinese envoy his country was willing to engage in bilateral and multilateral talks.(Description of Source: Hong Kong AFP in English -- Hong Kong service of the independent French press agency Agence France-Presse)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. P
 ermission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: UrgentInternational PoliticalProliferationLeader,INTERNATIONAL ISSUESIP
City: Hong Kong
Geographic Code: CHN,USA,PRK
Geographic Name: China,United States,North Korea,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,NORTH KOREA,CHINA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Monday September 21, 2009 T08:33:23Z --------------------
Title: Unattributed article from the "Taiwan" page: "Sun Moon Lake Swim Draws a Record Number of People"
Journal: The China Post Online
Text:
PAGE:http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/local/nantou/2009/09/21/225487/Sun-Moon.htm http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/local/nantou/2009/09/21/22548 7/Sun-Moon.htmTITLE: Sun Moon Lake swim draws a record number of peopleSECTION: TaiwanAUTHOR:PUBDATE: 2009-09-21(CHINA POST) - NANTOU, Taiwan -- A record number of people from home and abroad took part in the annual mass swim across the scenic Sun Moon Lake in central Taiwan Sunday, with long lines of colorful swim caps dotting the clear lake.Premier Wu Den-yih, who initiated the event in 1983 during his tenure as Nantou County magistrate, kick-started this year's swim with a brief speech, wishing every participant good health and happiness.Wu also conveyed President Ma Ying-jeou's best wishes for a safe and smooth event. The health-conscious president has taken part in the swim three times in the past.After firing the start gun to get the swimmers going, Wu left the site and went on an inspection of certain reconstruction projec
 ts in the mountainous central county that were launched after the massive flooding and landslides caused by Typhoon Morakot swamped the area early last month.Now in its 27th year, the cross-Sun Moon Lake swim drew 25,888 local and foreign participants this year, a new record in the event's history, organizers said.Among the swimmers, 296 were physically disabled and 1,545 were from abroad, including 1,200 from China alone.The swim started at Chaowu Wharf and ended at Ita Thao Wharf, covering a distance of about 3,300 meters.To avoid overcrowding of the swimming lanes, five time slots were allocated, and in each slot the participants were divided into several groups.The physically challenged swimmers were allowed to set off first, and then half an hour later, the first group of other swimmers were allowed to follow up.On average, it takes about 90 minutes to two hours to complete the course, but more skillful swimmers can finish in 40-60 minutes, organizers said.The Sun Moon 
 Lake swim, which began as a domestic event with some 500 participants, has grown into an international activity that has earned the recognition of the International Olympic Committee.The foreign participants this year came from the United States, South Africa, Britain, Japan, Australia, Singapore, the Netherlands, China and other countries.Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: LeaderInternational EconomicInternational Political
City: Taipei
Geographic Code: AUS,CHN,JPN,NLD,SGP,ZAF,TWN,USA
Geographic Name: Australia,China,Japan,Netherlands,Singapore,South Africa,Taiwan,United States,Oceania,Asia,Europe,Africa,Americas,East Asia,South East Asia,North Europe,Southern Africa,North Americas,TAIWAN,CHINA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIAIP
Region: Oceania,Asia,Europe,Africa,Americas






-------------------- Monday August 24, 2009 T05:50:29Z --------------------
Title: Pakistan: Security Forces Arrest Six Would-Be Suicide Bombers in Karachi
Journal: The News Online
Text:
KARACHI: The Criminal Investigation Department (CID) of Sindh, with the collaboration of intelligence agencies, has foiled a terrorist plot and arrested seven terrorists, including six suicide bombers belonging to the Lashkar-i-Jhangvi and the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), here on Sunday.The police have recovered three suicide jackets, explosive material, Kalashnikovs, TT pistols, gas masks, heroin, remote control devices, batteries, ball-bearings, electric wires and hundreds of rounds. SSP Muhammad Fayyaz Khan said the CID had received information about the presence of some terrorists in Karachi who were hiding in a house situated in Defence View.The CID, along with personnel of intelligence agencies, conducted a raid late on Saturday night at the house and arrested Mohammed Aziz alias Salman Amir, Mohammed Shahzad alias Pehlwan alias Muna alias Ustad, Ghulam Mohammed alias Umar, Shahbaz alias Mian, Khalid Ahmed Toori (brother of Qasim Toori), Alam Zaib alias Huzefa and S
 hakeel Ahmed alias Hunzeela.During a search operation, three suicide jackets, 15 kilogramme of explosives material, four Kalashnikovs, four TT pistols, two gasmasks, two kilogramme of heroin, four electronic remote controls use in bomb blasts, four batteries used in suicide jackets, more than five kilogramme of ball-bearings, electric water of different types and over 200 rounds were recovered. The accused were taken to the investigation unit of the CID.During the investigation, the accused disclosed that their accomplices were present in Waziristan and Chaman. They were sent to Karachi for fund generation and terrorist acts on government and military installations and officers.Recently, a huge consignment of arms and explosives, transported by their groups to Karachi for terrorist acts, was recovered by the police in a raid. The suspects disclosed that they had been trying to export heroin to South Africa.It was further disclosed that they had agents in Malaysia, Singapore,
  China, United Arab Emirates, Europe and the US, and they use to export heroin to these countries in the form of capsules and through other methods.The terrorists informed the investigators that a part of the money they collect through the sale of heroin in Karachi was being sent to Taliban Commander Maulvi Abdul Samad in Quetta, Gul Badin in Chaman while the remaining amount was given to the families of their arrested activists.It was disclosed that they were trained at a camp in South Waziristan and Afghanistan. Khalil Ahmed Toori is the brother of Qasim Toori (Amir of Jundullah) while accused Shahzad alias Muna alias Pehlwan is an expert in making suicide jackets and bombs. He was also involved in attempts on former president Pervez Musharraf and former prime minister Shaukat Aziz.(Description of Source: Islamabad The News Online in English -- Website of the widely read, influential English daily, member of the Jang publishing group. Neutral editorial policy, good coverag
 e of domestic and international issues. Hardcopy circulation estimated at 55,000; URL: http://www.thenews.com.pk)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: CrimeDomestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalLeaderMilitaryTerrorism
City: Islamabad
Geographic Code: PAK,AFG,ARE,CHN,USA
Geographic Name: Pakistan,Afghanistan,United Arab Emirates,China,United States,Asia,Middle East,Americas,South Asia,East Asia,North Americas,PAKISTAN,INDIAN SUBCONTINENT,SOUTHERN ASIA,WESTERN ASIA,ASIAIP
Region: Asia,Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Monday July 20, 2009 T14:31:29Z --------------------
Title: Xinhua: "Deal With U.S. on Afghan Military Transit Important: Medvedev"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
intervention)MOSCOW, July 20 (Xinhua) -- The agreement on the transit of U.S. military supplies for its operations in Afghanistan is important, and Moscowwill to continue dialogue with Washington on missile defense issues, President Dmitry Medvedev said Monday.The recent Russian-U.S. summit in Moscow "was not easy," the Interfax news agency quoted Medvedev as saying at a meeting with high-ranking military officers.Russia and the United States signed an agreement allowing 4,500 flights a year carrying U.S. troops and weapons to Afghanistan across Russian territory for free during U.S. President Barack Obama's visit to Moscow in June."Most officers and generals who are present here today know from their own experience how manyproblems exist in the Afghan-Pakistani sector, aswell as how many militants and drug traffickers cross into the Russian Federation from there," Medvedev said.During that visit, Obama and Medvedev also inked a document of understanding on nuclear weapon con
 trol and a joint statement on missile defense.Despite the statement on missile defense, key differences remain as neither Russia nor the United States made substantial compromises on the issue.Moscow sees the U.S. missile defense plan in eastern Europe as a major threat to its national security and has strongly opposed the plan."In any case, we will continue our dialogue on strategic offensive weapons and the fate of air defense shield elements that were supposed to be deployed in Europe," Medvedev said.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: EnergyEnvironmentInternational Economic,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRSIP
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: AFG,RUS,USA
Geographic Name: Afghanistan,Russia,United States,Asia,Eurasia,Americas,South Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,WESTERN ASIA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,RUSSIA,USSR,AMERICAS,ASIA,AFGHANISTAN,EUROPE,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Asia,Eurasia,Americas






-------------------- Thursday June 18, 2009 T05:26:05Z --------------------
Title: Xinhua: "Vietnam Reports Two More A/h1n1 Flu Cases"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
intervention)HANOI, June 18 (Xinhua) -- The Vietnamese Ministry of Health said the country confirmed two more influenza A/H1N1 cases, raising the total number of flu patients to 28, local newspaper the Youth reported Thursday.The patient, an 18-year-old man, came back from the United States on flight NW1 last Thursday, transiting in Japan. He was confirmed positive to the influenza virus after being admitted to the General Hospital of the Mekong Delta province of Tien Giang, said the ministry.Another patient is a 62-year-old woman coming back from Canada on flight CX 765, transiting in Hong Kong. She was admitted to the Ho Chi Minh City Hospital of Tropical Diseases and tested positive for the A/H1N1 virus later.Meanwhile, out of the 28 A/H1N1 confirmed cases in Vietnam, 15 were discharged from the hospitals. The rest are being quarantined and treated in stable conditions.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language a
 udiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Health
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CAN,HKG,JPN,USA,VNM
Geographic Name: Canada,Hong Kong,Japan,United States,Vietnam,Americas,Asia,North Americas,East Asia,South East Asia,INDO CHINA,CHINA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,VIETNAM,SOUTHEAST ASIAIP
Region: Americas,Asia






-------------------- Thursday June 11, 2009 T10:09:43Z --------------------
Title: Article by Chang Ching-wei: "Steer Clear of Noise Disturbances in China-US Relations"
Journal: Ta Kung Pao Online
Text:
The latest news is that US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will be visiting China to discuss the strengthening of China-US economic ties. This is the continuation of high-level meetings between China and the United States started during the Bush era. What is worth mentioning is that some undesirable noises have come out while a solid strategic foundation is being laid for Sino-US ties. For example, Obama decried China for having no press freedom on World Press Freedom Day (3 May). According to a Wall Street Journal report, a small group of Republican and Democratic congressmen planned to table a bill which may threaten to impose special tariffs on imports from countries like China to punish them for their acts of "currency manipulation." Sino-US relations would be seriously affected should these issues that are detrimental to China gain the upper hand. Sensitivity of Bilateral Trade IncreasesAs everybody knows, human rights, press freedom and renminbi exchange rate are long-s
 tanding problems that have been bothering China and the United States. Besides hurting the feelings of the two governments and the two peoples, they are completely worthless and will embroil the two countries in endless bickering. As Chinese Ambassador to the United States Zhou Wenzhong noted, as the financial crisis continues, friction between China and the United States over trade imbalance, renminbi exchange rate, intellectual property rights, industrial policy, product quality and food safety, labor standards, climate change and other issues will increase and the intensity of friction over anti-dumping, counterveiling and other economic issues will grow. The "China threat theory" will likely become rife in the United States. China-US economic relations will go more and more beyond bilateral levels, extend to regional and multilateral fields, and gain in complexity and sensitivity.The problem now is that neither China nor the United States can afford the cost of bickering
 . At present, China is the United States' top holder of treasury bonds, second largest trading partner and third largest export market, and holds about US$700 billion in US treasury bonds. The US government will have difficulty sustaining its "New Deal" without the backing of China's foreign exchange reserve. The two are not stakeholders in the general sense but are a deeply integrated interest community. Suppressing China and regarding China as a currency manipulator in fact amounts to artificially breaking up this community of fate and will lead to a zero sum game for the two countries. Meanwhile, the United States is also China's largest export destination, second largest trading partner, and second largest source of direct investment. Under the circumstances, China does not hope to clash with the United States and harm the good relations that have developed between the two countries.More importantly, there is actually nothing new on issues such as press freedom and human
  rights on the ideological level. The Democratic government knows this very well. Even Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has, either wittingly or unwittingly, put this after economic and trade cooperation between the two countries. It is understandable why members of the two houses of Congress should bring this up again, but President Obama would be deliberately causing troubles if he provoked this kind of conflict. United States Makes Unfounded Countercharge with "Currency Manipulation" AccusationOn the renminbi exchange rate issue, in particular, it is a well-known fact that the value of the renminbi against the US dollar has been on the rise these past years. After the financial crisis, in particular, the renminbi is seen by the world an emerging currency that is fast growing and enjoying international prestige while the US dollar has reached a stage of rapid decline. As a result of its endeavor to divert the crisis from the country by deliberating devaluing its currency
  and massively increasing its issuance of bank notes, the wealth of China, Japan and other Asian countries with massive holdings of US treasury bonds has shrunk. In this sense, the United States is the real currency manipulator and is deliberately doing this by exploiting the status of the US dollar as an international currency. Its unfounded countercharge would only weaken its credibility. Let us not forget that the United States was not just denounced by developing countries but was decried by the European Union and other developed countries at the two previous G20 summits. They said that the United States was not doing a good job in financial regulation, that it allowed the derivative liquidity of financial products to go unchecked and took advantage of the international status of the US dollar to eat one's corn in the blade and live on debts.Moreover, accusations against the renminbi exchange rate were already rife during the Bush era but were all along suppressed by the
  US government. The US Congress tabled similar motions last year but failed to get them passed. Obama was quite tough on this issue when he ran for office, but that was only his campaign strategy. US Treasury Secretary Geithner also made similar noises but soon had to admit his verbal mistakes. The United States once again refused to list China as a "currency manipulator" in a Treasury Department report published not long ago. Thus, even the US government sees the so-called renminbi manipulation nation as a false proposition. The topic has cropped up time and again only because people in the United States see no hope of an economic recovery and the "New Deal" is not producing its anticipated effects and badly needs to divert people's attention. This is just a political and diplomatic trick.However, times have changed and China is not a tool to be manipulated by US politicians any more. Rather, it is a trading partner upon which the success of the "New Deal" of the United Sta
 tes depends. The United States will not have a good time if it made its partner angry. Thus, it is more important now than ever before for China and the United States to work in win-win cooperation.(Description of Source: Hong Kong Ta Kung Pao Online in Chinese -- Website of PRC-owned daily newspaper. URL: http://www.takungpao.com)Attachments:tkp0527b.pdfMaterial in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International Political,SOCIAL ISSUES,LEGAL,INTERNATIONAL ISSUES,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENT,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT,FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS,INVESTMENTIP
City: Hong Kong
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,FAR EAST,AMERICAS,USA,NORTH AMERICA,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,G7IP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Thursday June 11, 2009 T08:57:22Z --------------------
Title: AFP: More on China Tells Us To Repatriate Uighur Guantanamo Detainees
Journal: AFP
Text:
(Description of Source: Hong Kong AFP in English -- Hong Kong service of the independent French press agency Agence France-Presse)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Human RightsInternational PoliticalMilitaryTerrorism,SOCIAL ISSUES,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONSIP
City: Hong Kong
Geographic Code: AFG,ALB,CHN,CUB,PLW,TWN,USA
Geographic Name: Afghanistan,Albania,China,Cuba,Palau,Taiwan,United States,Asia,Europe,Americas,Oceania,South Asia,East Asia,Balkans,Caribbean,North Americas,CUBA,CHINA,CARIBBEAN,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,LATIN AMERICAIP
Region: Asia,Europe,Americas,Oceania






-------------------- Thursday June 11, 2009 T09:31:19Z --------------------
Title: India: Article Notices Somali Pirates-Al-Qa'ida Link, Warns of Maritime Terrorism
Journal: Indian Defence Review
Text:
I have been in receipt of the following message on April 8, 2009, from Ecoterra International, which disseminates a periodic "Somali Marine &amp; Coastal Monitor": "Danish owned and US-American operated MV MAERSK ALABAMA, a container ship of 14,120 gross tonnage under US-American flag with a 21 men crew of at least 20 US-American nationals, who are said to be all unarmed according to the company that owns the vessel, had been sea-jacked this morning at 07/30 on the Indian Ocean off the capital of Somalia, Mogadishu and about 280 miles (450 kilometers) south-east of Eyl, a town in the northern Puntland region of Somalia. The vessel was en route to Mombasa, Kenya, when it was attacked about 500 kilometers (310 miles) off Somalia's coast, the statement issued by Maersk Line Ltd. said. The 20 unarmed crew members fought back against the four hijackers and hours later regained control of their vessel, according to second mate Ken Quinn. Quinn, sounding harried in a terse mobile phone 
 call to CNN, said the crew had released one of the pirates they had tied up for 12 hours. But the hijackers were refusing to return Captain Richard Phillips. "Right now, they want to hold our captain for ransom and we're trying to get him back," Quinn told the US network. "He's in the ship's lifeboat," he said, explaining the four pirates had taken the lifeboat off the Maersk Alabama and that Phillips was in touch with his crew via ship's radio. "So now we're just trying to offer them whatever we can. Food. But it's not working too good." Quinn added: "We have a coalition (vessel) that will be here in three hours. So we're just trying to hold them off for three more hours and then we'll have a warship here to help us."The message continues: "Quinn said that all four pirates were on the lifeboat, after sinking their own boat after they seized the container vessel. Earlier, the crew took one pirate hostage, trying to swap him for their captain, but the deal went wrong, he told
  the American CNN news channel. Though the ship is the sixth seized within a week in the dangerous region around Africa, Cdr Jane Campbell, a spokeswoman for the US Navy's Bahrain-based 5 th Fleet, said it was the first pirate attack "involving US nationals and a US-flagged vessel in recent memory." No American merchant vessel has been attacked by pirates since 1804 during the North African Barbary Wars. US President Barack Obama's chief spokesman said the White House was assessing a course of action. Press secretary Robert Gibbs told reporters that officials there were monitoring the incident closely. Said Gibbs: "Our top priority is the personal safety of the crew members on board." The White House offered no other immediate details about what actions it was considering. Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman said there has not yet been any communications from the pirates for ransom. But he would not go into military plans. "I'm not going to speculate on any future military acti
 ons," Whitman said, when asked what the US military may do. Whitman said there are still no US Navy ships within view of the vessel, and instead they are still "hundreds of miles away. "The nearest US Navy warship was about 300 nautical miles away at the time of the hijacking," other US-American government sources said. No action has been taken so far, a spokesman for the US military's 5 th Fleet in Bahrain said first, according to CNN. "There is a task force present in the region to deter any type of piracy, but the challenge remains that the area is so big and it is hard to monitor all the time," 5 th Fleet spokesman Lt Nathan Christensen said. US Army Lieutenant Colonel Elizabeth Hibner, a Pentagon spokesperson, said later on Wednesday that the US Navy destroyer Bainbridge was en route to the scene. The cargo ship is directly owned and operated by a Maersk subsidiary in Norfolk, Virginia, Maersk spokesman Michael Storgaard said. "We have very strict policies on the vessel
  ... crews are trained to handle these types of situations," Storgaard said from Maersk's headquarters in Copenhagen, Denmark.The message further adds: "5 th Fleet spokesman Lt. Nathan Christensen said US-flagged ships are not normally escorted by the military, unless they request it from the US Navy. The 155-metre (511-foot) vessel had been due to dock in the Kenyan port of Mombasa on April 16. The hijacked boxship is run out of the huge merchant and naval base of Norfolk by Maersk Line Ltd., a division of Denmark's A.P. Moller-Maersk Group and was carrying emergency relief to Mombasa, Kenya, when it was hijacked," said Peter Beck-Bang, spokesman for the Copenhagen-based container shipping group A.P. Moller-Maersk, but analysts wondered, since relief food is usually shipped as bulk and not by a rather expensive container-ship. Though the shipping company has had some Defense Department contracts it was said this time not to be on a Pentagon job when attacked, a governmental
  statement read. The high seas standoff drew an expression of concern from Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, who called on the world to unite to "end the scourge of piracy".The message clarifies that the information contained in it came from "own sources, AFP, AP, Al-Jazeera, Pentagon, White House, et al". An earlier message of April 6, 2009, from ECOTERRA INTERNATIONAL had said: "With the latest captures and releases now, still at least 17 (18 with an unnamed sole Barge which drifted ashore) foreign vessels with a total of not less than 297 crew members accounted for (of which 110 are confirmed to be Filipinos) are held in Somali waters and are monitored on our actual case-list, while several other cases of ships, which were observed off the coast of Somalia and have been reported or had reportedly disappeared without trace or information, are still being followed. Over 134 incidents (including attempted attacks, averted attacks and successful sea-jackings) have b
 een recorded for 2008 with 49 fully documented, factual sea-jacking cases (for Somalia, including presently held ones) and the mistaken sinking of one vessel by a naval force. For 2009 the account stands at 52 averted or abandoned attacks and 14 sea-jackings on the Somali/Yemeni pirate side as well as one wrongful attack by friendly fire on the side of the naval forces. Mystery pirate mother-vessels Athena/Arena and Burum Ocean as well as not fully documented cases of absconded vessels are not listed in the sea-jack count until clarification. Several other vessels with unclear fate (also not in the actual count), who were reported missing over the last ten years in this area, are still kept on our watch-list, though in some cases it is presumed that they sunk due to bad weather or being unfit to sail. In the last four years, 22 missing ships have been traced back with different names, flags and superstructures."Despite the deployment of anti-piracy patrols from a number of c
 ountries including India, China and Japan, the Somali pirates continue to operate with virtual impunity and have been collecting millions of dollars in ransom money. The vast area involved, the inabilitry of the international community - due to legal and operational reasons - to undertake land-based operations against the pirates in Somalian territory and the suspected (by me) lack of co-ordination among anti-piracy patrols from different countries have come in the way of effective and deterrent action against the pirates, who are becoming more and more audacious and innovative.A number of questions remain unanswered: Are different pirate groups operating autonomously of each other or is there a common command and control? Who are the leaders of the different pirate groups and where are they based? Apart from the pirates themselves and their leaders, are there any other beneficiaries of the ransom money? Since Al Qaeda has been very active in Somalia for over a decade, does 
 it have any links with the pirates and is it financially benefiting from the ransom payments?The possibility of links between Al Qaeda and at least some of the pirate groups needs to be taken seriously. Ever since 9/11, Al Qaeda has been wanting to organize a major act of maritime terrorism to disrupt word trade and movement of energy supplies. Many of these pirates - if well-trained and well-motivated by Al Qaeda - could provide a new source of oxygen to it. The time has come to treat the campaign against the Somali pirates as seriously as the campaign against Al Qaeda.(Description of Source: New Delhi Indian Defence Review in English -- Quarterly magazine on defense issues. Most writers are retired senior military generals.)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalMediaTerrorism,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRSIP
City: New Delhi
Geographic Code: CHN,DNK,IND,JPN,KEN,SOM,USA
Geographic Name: China,Denmark,India,Japan,Kenya,Somalia,United States,Asia,Europe,Africa,Americas,East Asia,South Asia,North Europe,East Africa,North Americas,ALABAMA,NORTHERN EUROPE,SOMALIA,AMERICAS,USA,AFRICA,EUROPE,SOUTHERN ASIA,INDIAN SUBCONTINENT,GULF STATES,SCANDINAVIA,INDIA,EAST AFRICA,NORTH AMERICA,KENYA,ASIA,BAHRAIN,MIDDLE EAST,ARAB STATES,DENMARK,WESTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Asia,Europe,Africa,Americas






-------------------- Wednesday June 2, 2010 T04:39:40Z --------------------
Title: KCNA: Group in Russia Censures US, Lee Myung-bak Group's 'Anti-DPRK Smear Campaign'
Journal: KCNA
Text:
(Description of Source: Pyongyang KCNA in English -- Official DPRK news agency. URL: http://www.kcna.co.jp)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: ProliferationMilitaryInternational PoliticalInternational Economic
City: Pyongyang
Geographic Code: AUT,CZE,PRK,RUS,KOR,GBR,USA
Geographic Name: Austria,Czech Republic,North Korea,Russia,South Korea,United Kingdom,United States,Europe,Asia,Eurasia,Americas,Central Europe,North Europe,East Asia,North Americas,UNITED KINGDOM,SOUTH KOREA,EUROPE,NORTH KOREA,FAR EAST,WESTERN EUROPE,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,RUSSIA,USSR,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Europe,Asia,Eurasia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T22:18:21Z --------------------
Title: US Holding Consultations With Russia, France On Iranian Nuclear Prblm
Journal: ITAR-TASS
Text:
intervention)WASHINGTON, June 2 (Itar-Tass) - U.S. Administration is holding consultations with Russia, France and other partners on the problems pertaining to Iran's nuclear program, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State William Burns said Tuesday as he took the floor at the Council on Foreign Relations.In addition to the consultations with the Russians and the French, Washington also hopes to make its concerns known to the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Yukio Amano.Burns indicated that the world community's major concerns are linked to Iran's intransigence as regards the fulfillment of obligations it undersigned.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalProliferation
City: Moscow
Geographic Code: RUS,IRN,FRA,USA
Geographic Name: Russia,Iran,France,United States,Eurasia,Middle East,Europe,Americas,South Europe,North Americas,FRANCE,MEDITERRANEAN,NORTH AMERICA,WESTERN ASIA,USA,RUSSIA,USSR,AMERICAS,ASIA,EUROPE,MIDDLE EAST,GULF STATES,IRAN,WESTERN EUROPE,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Eurasia,Middle East,Europe,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T20:11:28Z --------------------
Title: NATO not qualified enough for missile defence talks - Russian envoy
Journal: ITAR-TASS
Text:
envoyText of report by Russian state news agency ITAR-TASSRiga, 1 June: On some security issues NATO is insufficiently qualified, especially on missile defence, Russia's permanent representative to the alliance Dmitriy Rogozin said today in an interview with the Latvian radio station Baltkom. He is taking part in the NATO Parliamentary Assembly session here."I have no doubt that (NATO Secretary-General) Anders Fogh Rasmussen wishes to qualitatively change our relations by involving Russia in the projects which the European allies and USA would like to develop in terms of security," Rogozin said with regard to the NATO secretary-general's statement today that according to its new strategic concept, the alliance wants to work alongside Russia on establishing a missile defence system."The problem is that on some issues NATO does not have the necessary qualifications. For example, on missile defence. In reality, the USA and the Russian Federation currently have missile defence sy
 stems. If anything is to emerge in terms of missile defence, it will primarily be bilateral - between Russia and the USA. NATO is merely the third 'client' on this. Meaning that NATO is joining this issue".On the whole, Rogozin was positive about the sentiment and rhetoric of the NATO secretary-general. "I believe that he is sincere on these issues. But we are not always interested in the North Atlantic alliance as it is. It includes countries which have very low military potential. We are not interested in them as partners. But there are genuinely serious large states with which we develop bilateral relations. Therefore an alliance that has swollen to 28 countries is less interesting for us than NATO was in the Cold War period," the Russian envoy noted.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in Russian -- Main government information agency)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyri
 ght holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalMilitaryProliferation,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONSIP
City: Moscow
Geographic Code: RUS,USA
Geographic Name: Russia,United States,Eurasia,Americas,North Americas,NORTHERN EUROPE,NORTH AMERICA,USA,RUSSIA,USSR,AMERICAS,EUROPE,BALTIC STATES,LATVIA,EASTERN EUROPE,NATOIP
Region: Eurasia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T18:59:24Z --------------------
Title: "CEZ Submits Temelin Completion EIA Study to Ministry" -- Czech Happenings headline
Journal: Czech Happenings
Text:
The study has over 500 pages plus another 2,000 pages of annexes.It has been drafted by 200 experts from institutions such as the Nuclear Research Institute, Energoprojekt, Czech Hydrometeorological Institute and others. Its preparation has taken 15 months.The study assesses the influence of the planned completion of Temelin on the environment, including the impact on public health, animals and plans, ecosystems, soil, water, air, climate, landscape, natural resources, tangible property and cultural heritage.The study is based, among other things, on data gathered within the programme of monitoring Temelin's impact on the environment, launched in 2000, Jan Horak of SCES - Group, which has processed the documentation, said.As a next step of the reactor operation licensing procedure, the documentation will be sent to the Jihocesky region (south Bohemia) and the municipalities concerned.CEZ estimates the proceedings to take minimally 5 years. The EIA process alone is to make up 
 at least half of this time.The EIA is an international process in which the neighbouring Germany and Austria will also take part. Both countries will receive the EIA documentation translated to German.Apart from the EIA process, a public tender for the supplier of Temelin's completion continues. Offers have been submitted by three bidders, Areva of France, a consortium of Westinghouse companies and a Russian-Czech consortium led by Atomstroyexport.The winner, who will receive an order exceeding Kc500bn, is to be known by spring 2012.(Description of Source: Prague Czech Happenings in English -- Internet magazine with focus on political and economic reporting, published by CTK subsidiary Neris; URL: http://www.ceskenoviny.cz)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic EconomicDomestic PoliticalEnergyEnvironmentInternational Political,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Prague
Geographic Code: CZE,AUT,DEU,FRA,RUS,USA
Geographic Name: Czech Republic,Austria,Germany,France,Russia,United States,Europe,Eurasia,Americas,Central Europe,North Europe,South Europe,North Americas,CENTRAL EUROPE,EUROPE,CZECH REPUBLIC,CZECHOSLOVAKIA,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Europe,Eurasia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T13:41:48Z --------------------
Title: Medvedev Praises EU's Quick Decisions On Greece Problems
Journal: ITAR-TASS
Text:
intervention)ROSTOV-ON-DON, June 1 (Itar-Tass) - Russian President Dmitry Medvedev praised the European Union for making quick decisions on problems of Greece and stabilization in the Eurozone.At a joint new conference with EU leaders after the 25th Russia-EU summit in Rostov-on-Don, the Russian leader urged the partners "to work together diligently on the solution of absolutely practical tasks.""The speed with which the EU and its leaders made the decision to allocate money to resolve Greece's problem and the problem of financial stability (of the Eurozone) deserves all kinds of praise."The efforts by one country cannot lead to any results (in overcoming the crisis); we saw the proof of it in the face of the 2008 crisis: no matter how hard the USA was trying, so the G-20 had to be invented. We're now gathering in Toronto, for the forth time," Medvedev said.The G-20 will convene in Toronto in late June.In the opinion of the president, "it is necessary, without staging hysteri
 a over this or that problem in various parts of the globe, including in Europe.""It is necessary to help partners not to make sharp statements and not to rock one's own economy and the economy of the European Union," the head of the Russian state said.The way the crisis will be developing depends on the efficiency of these decisions: either it will be possible to nip the problem "in the bud," or it will have to be truncated, possibly for decades. The speed and synchronism with which it was done shows the efficiency of the institutions which were created as a result of the signing of the Lisbon treaty."It does good to us, too. We don't participate in the EU, but we depend on the situation around the key reserve currencies. We're watching the development of the situation round the dollar, but we're also looking at what is happening to the Euro," he went on to say.Reminding that the euro accounts for some 40 percent of Russian gold and foreign currency reserves and that Russia 
 has "considerable" reserves, Medvedev said "we believe the main thing in this situation is to help partners and build a joint strategy, in this case towards pulling out of the crisis."Among the joint current anti-crisis tasks, Medvedev mentioned "the problems of auditing and the problem of rating agencies, the solution of the redistribution of quotas and fixing the changes in IMF and World Bank governing bodies, and the problem of co-participation in financing economic programs.He reminded that Russia "is taking obligations that are worth large sums.""If we all take such a responsible attitude to our duties, the problems in the existing world economy and the European economy will be successfully resolved," Medvedev said.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding us
 e may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalLeader,EUROPEAN UNION,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Moscow
Geographic Code: RUS,GRC,USA
Geographic Name: Russia,Greece,United States,Eurasia,Europe,Americas,Balkans,North Americas,MEDITERRANEAN,GREECE,RUSSIA,USSR,SOUTHERN EUROPE,EUROPE,WESTERN EUROPE,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Eurasia,Europe,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T12:46:28Z --------------------
Title: Commentary by Candidate of Technical Sciences Vyacheslav Vladimirovich Volodin, under the rubric: Concepts: Lethal Might with Delivery to a Specific Address
Journal: Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye Online
Text:
Recently, the topic of precision-guided strike munitions, to which quite a bit of attention has been devoted recently, has somehow disappeared from the pages of domestic publications.  Perhaps all of the questions of the development of precision-guided munitions have been resolved?  Or the use of these weapons has lost its relevance under the conditions of today's realities?The cause is mostly like of the opposite nature.  The range of problems that exists here has turned out to be much more extensive and their resolution much more difficult than that initially appeared to be.  To a certain extent, this was associated with imparting increasingly greater significance to such combat missions as battlefield isolation and air support of ground troops, the accomplishment of which, as it initially appeared, will be closed by one of the types of precision-guided munitions - precision-guided bombs with programmed guidance to the target and satellite navigation - without any special p
 roblems.  The orientation on the use of precisely this type of precision-guided munitions here was caused by the relatively low cost of these weapons, which has very important significance under conditions of the very large number of missions that are being examined in the overall composition of combat aircraft operations.In the words of a NATO staff officer, with whom the author had the opportunity to converse, "at the present time, the long-and-drawn-out world war has entered that phase, where the percentage of battlefield isolation and air support of ground troops missions accounts for 85% of the entire combat aviation effort".We need to say that it is precisely the participants of the "long-and-drawn-out world war" who were the first to sense the problems of the effective use of precision-guided munitions.  And optimistic statements with regard to these weapons have also decreased in the Western press.  However, at the same time, the discussion of the precision-guided mu
 nitions theme has been stepped up at special semi-private conferences, which are conducted by the IQPC and SMi information clubs, which are well-known in the West.  And much of what has been stated here poses real interest.THE OVERALL PROBLEM OF BATTLEFIELD ISOLATION AND AIR SUPPORT OF GROUND TROOPS STRIKE MISSIONSThe specific nature of the accomplishment of the combat missions that are being examined consists of the fact that the targets, which are located in direct proximity to the deployment location of our own armed forces or of crowds of civilians, the destruction of whom is impermissible, are becoming the targets for combat aircraft operations here.  That impermissibility under conditions of contemporary warfare is dictated not only by military-tactical but also by political considerations.  In many cases, the accidental destruction of our own armed forces during the course of the air support of ground troops - that is nothing other than the conduct of a strike against
  the combat subunits of allied countries, which are part of the coalition combat formations.  And definite political demarches in the mutual relations of the countries, which have become the unwilling participants of these incidents, can follow such incidents, which have received the designation "friendly fire".A great deal of unpleasantness can also arise during the course of accomplishing battlefield isolation missions.  Really, any position, at which the enemy is detected - regardless of its territorial location or political status - can turn out to be a battlefield.  That can also be a position, which is located in the deep rear of enemy territory, or a position, which is located on the forward edge of enemy engagement, but which does not have any relation to the enemy whatsoever.  It is possible that the conduct by American combat aircraft of a bomb strike against the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade during the course of the large-scale military conflict in the Balkans at th
 e end of the 1990s became the first example in contemporary history of this unpleasantness, which can arise during the accomplishment of such combat missions.  The subsequent local wars, which have occurred on the territory of a number of countries of the Middle East, have yielded quite a few additional examples of the conduct of strikes against neutral forces, which are not directly participating in combat operations.  And the "collateral effect" concept, which combines all of the possible manifestations of these incidents in practice, has become one of the criteria, which is used in the assessment of the improvement of precision-guided munition systems.  While reacting to that, the SMi information club has even planned the conduct of an "Air Support of Ground Troops under Urban Conditions" Special Conference in 2010.However, Western experts had already begun the discussion of this problem a long time ago.  And the approach to the assessment of the improvement of precision-
 guided munitions while taking into account the "collateral effect" was demonstrated by an entire series of foreign experts during the course of the "Air-Launched Weapons" Conference, which was conducted by the IQPC information club in London in 2008.  That was heard in the briefing of U.S. Marine Corps Colonel Kennedy, who examined the experience of the aircraft employment of Hellfire multifunction missiles during the course of the combat operations in Iraq, also in the briefing of U.S. Air Force Colonel Plumb, the chief of the U.S. Air Force Air Armament Center, who dwelled in detail on the capabilities of the combat employment of the JDAM and SDB precision-guided bombs, and in the report of his French Colleague General Huret, who touched upon the issue of the effectiveness of the employment of AASM precision-guided bombs by French Air Force aircraft in Afghanistan, and in the exclusive speech of Toaff, an expert from Israel, who examined the capabilities of the employment 
 of SPICE precision-guided bombs in strike operations.From all appearances, the exclusive nature of the last briefing was not by chance.  Really, just two months later, the Israeli armed forces began Operation "Cast Lead", during the course of which the capabilities of the Israeli Air Force's precision-guided munitions systems were demonstrated in practice.  And we need to say that all of the problems of the pinpoint employment of precision-guided munitions, which were exclusively mentioned by the representative of the SPICE bombs developer-firm, were once again confirmed in practice during the course of the combat operations on the territory of the Palestinian enclave in the Gaza Strip.  While commenting on the employment in these combat operations of the precision-guided munition systems, which the Israeli side of the armed conflict had at its disposal, the commander of an Israeli Air Force F-15 fighter squadron, which was specially trained to employ precision-guided muniti
 ons, was compelled to acknowledge:  "During the use of precision-guided munitions in a ground troops air support mission, we encountered that proximity of our own troops' location and the enemy formation, which we couldn't have predicted beforehand".Although we can consider that this statement was oriented on the characteristic of the ground troops' air support mission and that it applies to the same (and possibly, even a greater) extent to the characteristic of a battlefield isolation mission.  We can judge that based upon the existing illustrative evidence of the combat operations in the Gaza Strip.  They graphically demonstrate that degree of integration of the positions of the Palestinian combat formations with the Gaza Strip's municipal infrastructure, which is oc cupied by the civilian population, which has nothing to do with the armed conflict.  After that, should we be surprised with regard to the Israeli Air Force conduct of unpremeditated strikes even against UN fa
 cilities, which are located in the Gaza Strip, which occurred during the course of the combat operations.Today it is unlikely that we will regard the emergence of these "collateral effects" as a phenomenon, which has defining significance in a quantitative context.  However, in a qualitative context, the negative value of these phenomena is very high.  That is associated with the fact that, as a participant of the previously mentioned "Air-Launched Weapons" Conference stressed, "The experience of combat operations in Afghanistan shows that the majority of cases of the 'collateral effect' go beyond the limits of the category of the combat forces' tactical errors and escalate into political scandals, which have to be sorted out at the international relations level".THE PROBLEM OF TARGET DESIGNATION ACCURACY AND THE ACCURACY OF THE WEAPONS THEMSELVES IN PROVIDING WEAPONS EMPLOYMENT ACCURACYThe incident that was mentioned above of the conduct by American combat aircraft of a bom
 b strike against the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade during the course of the Balkans military conflict coincided with the initiation of active advertising by the Americans of the JDAM precision-guided bomb, which has programmed guidance to the target using satellite navigation, which had been put in the inventory at that time.  That advertising occurred, in particular, at the very first "Air-Launched Weapons" Conference, which was conducted by the IQPC information club in London in 2002.  U.S. Air Force Colonel Lawrence presented a special briefing on this new weapon here.  Although the briefing was devoted to a broad range of issues - from the technical and operational specifications of the various bombs of the JDAM family to the plans for their deployment into the inventory and deliveries to the world market - the primary interest of the audience, in which experts of all of the Western countries were present, was associated with the question:  "Can we consider the JDAM to be 
 a precision-guided munition, while taking into account the incident with the strike using this weapon against the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade?"  The American briefer's answer was extremely unequivocal:  "The JDAM bomb totally accurately hit the target, the target designation was inaccurate".It is impossible to state that this incident had some sort of decisive significance in the systematic understanding of the problem of conducting bomb strikes in a battlefield isolation mission but we can point out that, beginning since 2003, the IQPC information club has begun the annual conduct of a special "Aimer-Gunner" Conference, which is devoted to the problem of weapons target designation and, in general, at all subsequent conferences, which are conducted in London by this information club, the focus of attention only on precision-guided munitions has shifted to the expansion of this attention to precision-guided munitions systems as a whole.  Besides the purely weapons guidance ac
 curacy to the target, they began to examine the accuracy of the target designation, which was transmitted to this weapon based upon the corresponding information support, the nature of which defines the functional appearance of the precision-guided munitions system as a whole.  Precision-guided munitions employment accuracy began to be examined as a characteristic of the precision-guided munitions system and not of the precision-guided munition itself.First of all, attention was drawn to the precision-guided munitions systems, which use precision-guided munitions, in which programmed control with satellite navigation was used as the guidance method to the target, and target designation was provided by the combat aircraft's airborne surveillance-aiming systems.  So, in particular, the results of the "JDAM Quality" Program, which is devoted to the assessment of JDAM bomb employment accuracy against a fixed target in a battlefield isolation mission using various target designat
 ion techniques, were presented among the issues that were examined in the briefing of a U.S. Navy aviation directorate representative at an IQPC information club conference in 2007.  The use of the F/A-18E-F "Super Hornet" combat aircraft's airborne radar surveillance-aiming system with the APG-79 radar and the ATFLIR optical-electronic optical-aiming system was examined as the latter.  The surveillance-aiming systems insured the receipt on the display in the crew cockpit of a visual depiction of the terrain, which is observed from onboard the aircraft, with the target that is located on it, the coordinates of which were determined by the position of the aiming reticle which is imposed by the weapons operator (pilot) on the screen terrain display.The conducted flight tests have shown that the value of the circular probable error during the employment of the JDAM bomb is determined 75-85% by the target designation error that has been transmitted for this employment.  But then
  again, this error substantially increases with the increase of that range from the target, at which the determination of the target coordinates and weapon launch is being conducted.  The latter is explained by a turn to the line of the horizon of the terrain depiction that is being observed by the operator, which impedes him from the precise placement of the target reticle.  It was also discovered that the optical-electronic system possesses much greater capabilities to provide target designation accuracy than a radar system at short ranges.  But this ratio dramatically changes to the reverse as the range to the target increases.The data that were obtained in the "JDAM Quality" Program served as that base of comparison, with regard to which the possible methods to increase the target designation accuracy were assessed and, as a consequence, to increase the weapons employment accuracy with programmed guidance to the target on the whole.  This is first of all the combined use
  of the combat aircraft's various information sensors, which can insure the receipt of the target designation with the smallest circular probable error value in the broad band of weapon employment ranges.  This circular probable error value can even be substantially reduced with the use of special information processing techniques, which insure the more precise placement of the aiming reticle by the operator on the terrain depiction with the location of the target on it that is being presented to him on the display.    The Andoga Instrument - is reliable protection from precision-guided munitions.THE PROBLEM OF THE EMPLOYMENT ACCURACY OF PRECISION-GUIDED MUNITIONS WHILE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE ACTUAL CIRCUMSTANCES OF COMBAT OPERATIONSWhile discussing the results of the "JDAM Quality" Program, we must stress that it examined the problem of increasing the employment accuracy of a weapon with programmed guidance to the target in an ideal situation in a certain sense.  It did no
 t consider such circumstances as the possible movement of the targets and the possible use of special jamming equipment by the defending side, which reduces the effectiveness of satellite navigation.  The adaptation of the practice of the employment of programmed weapons control with satellite navigation as a guidance method to the target to the conditions of the mobility of the targets on the battlefield resulted in the appearance of a special version of this technique, which in the United States received the designation AMSTE (Affordable Moving Surface Target Engagement - a technique for the destruction of a mobile target on the battlefield that is acceptable based upon cost).The essence of the AMSTE techn ique consists of the employment of two or more aircraft radar surveillance complexes, which use their radars in the moving target indicator mode (GMTI (ground moving target indicator) mode) to detect and to geolocate the current position on the terrain of a target, which
  is subject to destruction.  The information that is obtained by each of the aircraft radar surveillance complexes is transmitted to the combat aircraft (or to some other aircraft that is participating in the accomplishment of the combat mission), where, after the merger with the allocation of the final information, it is used to transmit the changed target coordinates to a weapon that is in flight.  (Obviously, the weapon itself must have information contact with the combat aircraft in the form of a data transmission line to do that).  The process is continuous in nature, thanks to which the airborne control system of the weapon itself continuously tracks the target designation's changing coordinates.  The employment of no less than two aircraft radar surveillance complexes is caused by the inadequate accuracy of the ground moving target indicator mode during the determination of the target's azimuth coordinates.  Indeed, in individual cases, one aircraft radar surveillance
  complex can be replaced directly by a combat aircraft, if its surveillance-sight system possesses the needed capabilities.Is it complex?  Yes, it is very complex.  But all of this so that the destruction accuracy of a target, which is maneuvering on the battlefield, would not be below that which ordinarily characterizes a precision-guided munition with programmed guidance to the target.  The capability to use a JDAM bomb without its own terminal guidance to destroy an M-60 tank, which was moving with a speed of 32 kilometers per hour in the composition of a vehicle column, was shown during the course of a flight demonstration.  The bomb's launch was conducted from an F-16 fighter aircraft, which was at an altitude of 7,000 meters and at a distance of 11 kilometers from the target.  Target tracking was carried out using two aircraft radar surveillance complexes, which were located at a distance of 35 and 100 kilometers from the target.  The arrival of information about the t
 arget's coordinates at the JDAM bomb began immediately after it was dropped and lasted right up until it hit the target, which turned out to be a direct hit.  The adjustment of the target designation was conducted directly from onboard one of the aircraft radar surveillance complexes.With respect to the second of the circumstances that was noted above, and precisely the enemy's employment of jammers, which reduce the satellite navigation's effectiveness, it is impossible not to note the contribution that domestic developers have made to the appearance of that circumstance.  Today that is already not a secret.  During the course of the MAKS-2005 (Moscow Aerospace Show) Exhibition, the Andoga radiotechnical system was demonstrated by one of the organizations among the participants' other low-profile exhibits.  This is a special information jamming transmitter, this system permits the reduction of the accuracy (or in general the paralysis) of the operation of the satellite navi
 gation system, which is being used by a precision-guided munition with programmed guidance to the target, in its area of operation.The Andoga System equipment's six-kilogram unit can create a jamming zone of 15 kilometers against the employment of precision-guided munitions.  And the employment of a unit that is twice as big can increase that zone by an order of magnitude.  With that size of the information protection zone, the error, which is accumulated by the precision-guidance munition's guidance system on the flight's terminal sector, reduces to naught the effect of the employment of satellite navigation.  Meanwhile, an American JDAM bomb, a French AASM bomb, or an Israeli Spice bomb doesn't mandatorily have to be this weapon.  It can turn out to be a domestically-produced KAB-500S bomb.  Really, the Ando ga system can insure the information neutralization of the operations of not only the foreign GPS satellite navigation system, but also of our GLONASS satellite naviga
 tion system.The consideration of the examined circumstance was expressed in foreign practice in the conduct by the developers of special upgrades  of the satellite navigation system equipment that is installed on these weapons for the category of weapon that is begin examined.  The jam-proofing of this equipment has become one of the fundamental characteristics during the examination of the combat capabilities of this category of precision-guided munitions.  The question about the accuracy of the weapon's guidance to the target with the use of programmed control and satellite navigation has been augmented by the issue of the size of a certain "dead" zone around the target, in which in general this technique is not effective.The very dimensions of this zone cannot be a characteristic of the weapon since it depends not only on the resistance of the weapon's satellite navigation system to the impact of jamming, but also on the intensity of that jamming, which is determined by t
 he type and output of the equipment, which is being employed by the defending side.  Special measures to insure the jam-proofing of the weapon's satellite navigation systems of the weapons with programmed guidance promote the reduction of the "dead" zone surrounding the target, where satellite navigation ceases to operate.  According to the assessments of Raytheon specialists, which were expressed at one of the recent "Air Weapon" conferences, these measures can decrease the "dead" zone by 2-4 times but cannot totally eliminate it.While summing up, we can state that the recently increased role of battlefield isolation and air support of ground troops combat missions, and also the specific nature of the accomplishment of these missions in actual combat conditions have caused the appearance of the problem of the pin-point employment of precision-guided munitions, in particular, of such types of precision-guided munition as aircraft bombs with programmed guidance to the target.
   It has become obvious that the accuracy of employment of these weapons is systemic in nature and is determined not only by the accuracy specifications of the weapon itself but also by many other factors and circumstances.  Insuring the pin-point employment of these types of precision-guided munitions under the conditions of these factors and circumstances has compelled a shift of attention from the development of the weapon itself to the development of special precision-guided munition systems, which optimally correspond to the specific nature of the battlefield isolation and air support of ground troops missions and to return to certain already forgotten methods of the conduct of combat operations.  But that is already the topic of a separate examination.(Description of Source: Moscow Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye Online in Russian -- Website of weekly military newspaper published by Remchukov's Nezavisimaya Gazeta; URL: http://nvo.ng.ru/)Material in the World News Co
 nnection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic EconomicInternational PoliticalMilitaryTechnology,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT,PRODUCT APPLICATIONSIP
City: Moscow
Geographic Code: USA,RUS
Geographic Name: United States,Russia,Americas,Eurasia,North Americas,YUGOSLAVIA,AMERICAS,USA,EUROPE,PALESTINE,ISRAEL,NORTH AMERICA,RUSSIA,USSR,SOUTHERN EUROPE,MIDDLE EAST,SERBIA,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Americas,Eurasia






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T11:45:57Z --------------------
Title: Pres Of European Council Praises EU-Russia Relations
Journal: ITAR-TASS
Text:
intervention)ROSTOV-ON-DON, June 1 (Itar-Tass) -- Russia and EU do not need a reset of their relations, similar to the one taking place in Russia's relations with the United States, because cooperation between Moscow and Brussels is developing effectively, Herman Van Rompay, President of the European Council, said at a press conference here, commenting on the results of the anniversary 25th Russia-EU summit."Russia is a strategic partner of the European Union and they are maintaining an intensive dialogue. There is no need for the reset of our relations. We should rather push the 'full speed' button," he said.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalLeader,EUROPEAN UNION,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Moscow
Geographic Code: RUS,USA
Geographic Name: Russia,United States,Eurasia,Americas,North Americas,EUROPE,NORTH AMERICA,AMERICAS,RUSSIA,USSR,USA,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Eurasia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T11:19:20Z --------------------
Title: WTO needs Russia, West must stop using membership pledge as carrot - Medvedev
Journal: Rossiya 24
Text:
- MedvedevThe West should realize that the WTO needs Russia and stop using prospective membership as a "carrot for good behaviour", President Dmitriy Medvedev has said. He was speaking at a joint news conference with European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and EU Council President Herman Van Rompuy after the Russia-EU summit in Rostov-na-Donu, broadcast live on state-owned news channel Rossiya 24 on 1 June.Medvedev said: "Now as regards the WTO, the WTO (first in English then in Russian). We discussed this yesterday during an informal conversation as well as today. In this respect, the situation is quite simple and, from my perspective, my colleague Mr Barroso's remarks just now were very accurate. He said that Russia needs the WTO but the WTO needs Russia as well, because the problems that we, including our partners in Europe, are encountering and some of the sticking points that we are discussing, the complaints that are at times put to Russia, including as regard
 s protectionism, are to a large degree due to us having different regimes. Had Russia been in the WTO, we would have had to follow these rules whether we wanted to do something or not. At present, the situation is different."Now as regards our will. I have said many times that nothing has changed here in relation to the WTO, despite our aspiration to set up a fully-fledged customs union and a single economic space with Kazakhstan and Belarus. Nothing has changed because we are for joining the WTO in principle. We think that without this our state cannot develop properly in the world economic space. Nothing has changed because we have not agreed to anything else with our partners apart from the fact that we will join together if it works or, if we are at different stages in talks, - at present that is the case - we will be joining separately."Therefore, in this respect everything is simple. Even though I am often asked (this question) nothing has changed in this respect."Fina
 lly, who should take the decision now? The decision of course is for the states that need to finally agree their position on this matter. Yesterday, we discussed what else could be done. We are having difficult talks on this matter with the American partners. But I think that it is time everyone, including the American partners, decided that Russia's membership of the WTO is not a carrot that we are being offered all the time as a prize for good behaviour, but that it simply is a necessity, for Russia to be a fully-fledged, integrated participant in international economic processes."I will not name a number of countries which have joined the WTO and whose degree of involvement in the international economic life and whose regulations are decades behind Russia. I will say just one thing. It seems quite strange that Russia is the only member of G20 not in the WTO. Who is worse off because of this?"Therefore, I very much hope that as a result of the summit that we have had our p
 ositions will be more consolidated. In this respect there are practically no disagreements with our European partners, and that the difficulties that still remain will go away, and we will join the WTO in the near future."(Description of Source: Moscow Rossiya 24 in Russian -- State-owned, 24-hour news channel (formerly known as Vesti TV) launched in 2006 by the All-Russian State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company (VGTRK), which also owns Rossiya TV and Radio)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalLeaderInternational Economic,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTSIP
City: Moscow
Geographic Code: RUS,USA
Geographic Name: Russia,United States,Eurasia,Americas,North Americas,EUROPE,RUSSIA,USSR,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Eurasia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T11:13:11Z --------------------
Title: Corrected version: replacing wrong text; The following lists selected items from the Greek Press on 29 May; To request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735, or fax (703) 613-5735; For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
Journal: Greece -- OSC Summary
Text:
--Athens Ta Nea carries a report by Aristotelia Peloni that the US Administration intends "to support Greece diplomatically and symbolically." It elaborates on the US Administration's indications of support, the new US Ambassador and the potential that President Obama will meet with PM Papandreou. (page 13, 400 words) (Athens Ta Nea--left-of-center daily) (OSC will process this item) Comments on the United States--Athens I Kathimerini has a commentary by Petros Papakonstandinou arguing that in effect President Obama is continuing Bush-era hard-line US policy and tactics. (page 13, 400 words) (Athens I Kathimerini--influential independent daily) (OSC will process this item) Energy--A report by Thodhoris Panagoulis on page 11 of the financial section of Athens O Kosmos Tou Ependhiti deals with the size of the Qatari investment in Astakos in Western Greece; the use of LPG and the risks; and the energy minister's opinion in this regard. (800 words) (Athens O Kosmos tou Ependhiti-
 -Independent, political and economic weekly) (OSC will process this item)There is a report by Yeoryios Findikakis on page 6 of the financial section of Athens Ta Nea on "the fiasco of the Burgas-Alexandroupolis pipeline" project. The subhead reads "the new impediments the Bulgarians are posing are making the Russians lose interest." (500 words) (OSC will process this item) C4I--Athens O Kosmos Tou Ependhiti has a report by Manolis Stavrakakis that "following the political decision not to accept delivery of the C4I system in its entirety" the police have launched an investigation to establish whether "officers of the security forces" received payments from Siemens. (page 10, 500 words) Domestic Political, Domestic Economic; PASOK--The media focus today was on the outcry over the "cynical" admission by Tasos Mandelis, a former minister, that he had accepted payments from Siemens:Athens O Kosmos Tou Ependhiti carries a report by Lambros Kalarritis that Mandelis' admission "brin
 gs rapid developments to the political scene" viewing that "further revelations involving political figures are expected at the parliamentary fact-finding commission" and given PM Papandreou's "clear" instruction that "there should be full revelation, regardless of consequences." (pages 6-7, 700 words)The other focus was on the implications of the EU-IMF bailout:The financial section has a report by Panos Kosmas setting down "all the Finance Ministry's action plan regarding (implementation of) the measures in the memorandum of agreement with the (EU-ECB-IMF) 'Troika'." The report elaborates the implications of the five-year austerity until 2015: It details the macro-economic measures and tabulates the basic magnitudes of GDP, balance of payments, public expenditure and sovereign debt servicing between 2009-2015. Kosmas says that the disinflation will result in shrinkage of nominal GDP from 237 billion to 224 by 2011. It also tabulates the dates of the 12 draw-downs of the 11
 0 billion Euros to April 2013, linking them with the prerequisite reform milestones and targets that have to be met. (pages 4-5, 1,000 words) (OSC will process these items as a report)Stavros Liyeros reports that "the country is holding its breath" regarding the austerity; that "for the government the crucial test will be whether or not the petty bourgeois multitude will avoid financial ruin;" that the "crash test" will be in the Fall. The report describes this against a background of the political system held in disrepute amid fears of "social conflagration." (page 13, 500 words) (OSC will process these items as a report)A report by Andreas Konstandatos deals with the government officers' concern whether the economic climate and the government's effectiveness will lead to "a rigorous implementation of the tasks listed in the Stability and Development plan;" which are prerequisites for releasing the second draw-down of 30 August. Konstandatos says that this concern may be pa
 ving the way for "corrective" and even more stringent measures in the Fall. (page 6, 700 words) (OSC will process these items as a report)Savvas Athanasiou reports that the Piraeus Port Authority (OLP) is creating a corporation which will merge with the other port authorities in Attica (Elevsis, Lavrion and Rafina); become listed and then privatize 49 percent. The report deals with the expected benefits of the move. (page 23 of the financial section, 500 words)Dhimitris Maris reports that implementing the "Kallikratis" local government reform law just passed will be "a titanic task," which has to be completed prior to the November local government elections. (page 20, 500 words)Athens Ta Nea Has a report by Irini D. Karanasopoulou that "EU sources now are expressing serious concerns whether Greece has the political will to meet its obligations under the (EU-IMF) bailout package." (page 10, 400 words) ND--Athens Ethnos has a report by Yiannis Sarandakos that in effect ND Chai
 rman Samaras has expelled Karamanlis former ministers Roussopoulos, Voulgarakis and Pavlidhis from the party because of impropriety. (page 7, 500 words) (Athens Ethnos--left-of-center daily)An unattributed report under the "on the horseshoe" rubric on page 63 of Athens Sto Karfi tou Savvatokiriakou says that ND Chairman Samaras and ND are losing grassroots officers to the Dora Bakoyianni camp. The report cites the "numerous" resignations from the ND organization in Crete, presumably in preparation for Bakoyianni's party. (Athens Sto Karfi tou Savvatokiriakou--Independent, left-of-center weekly) Dora Bakoyianni--Athens O Kosmos Tou Ependhiti carries a report by Akis Pavlopoulos that Dora Bakoyianni, expelled from ND, methodically is preparing her new party, which she will inaugurate in the Fall. Pavlopoulos says that "she is looking to create a liberal party... with emphasis on the political center and will seek to meld the opinions of various political forces and achieve a c
 ollaboration between them, with an eye to the 'post-crisis' period." (page 14, 700 words) Sinaspismos--Vangelis Papadhimitriou reports on page 17 of Athens O Kosmos Tou Ependhiti that the party base of Sinaspismos is so disillusioned with the party officers that only 30 percent participated in the "pre-congress dialog." The subhead notes that the party officers are "seeking party members out by telephone." (500 words) Military--A report by Manos Iliadhis on page 33 of Athens O Kosmos Tou Ependhiti says that the first ("Panoptis 2010") cyber-defense exercise conducted between 18-20 May was successful; albeit that much remains to be done. (500 words) (OSC will process this item)The items under the "In defense" rubric on page 34 deals extensively with the nature and the scope of the "Minoas 2010" exercise conducted jointly between the Hellenic and Israeli air forces. (300 words) Security--Athens O Kosmos Tou Ependhiti has a report by Manolis Stavrakakis that the new "DIAS" patr
 ols have taxed the human resources of the police, leading to short-staffing. Stavrakakis says that the police leadership is considering a re-structuring of police stations and areas to address the problem. (page 31, 500 words) (OSC will process this item)A report by Kostas Tomaras on page 20 of Athens Ethnos that the Security Ministry is taking six measures in the city center to address the repercussions form a high concentration of immigrants. Tomaras says that the measures will regulate hawkers, the location of addiction centers, handling of illegal immigrants, homeless people, and an inventory of abandoned buildings. (500 words) (OSC will process this item) Terrorism--A report by V. Y. Lambropoulos on page 14 of Athens To Vima says that the police have identified four of the perpetrators of the torching of the Marfin bank branch; they are seeking them and are trying to find evidence to implicate them. (300 words) (Athens To Vima--independent daily, critical of the New Dem
 ocracy party) (OSC will process this item)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic EconomicDomestic PoliticalEnergyLeaderMilitaryTerrorism,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT,MONETARY POLICY,FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: 
Geographic Code: BGR,GRC,QAT,RUS,USA
Geographic Name: Bulgaria,Greece,Qatar,Russia,United States,Europe,Middle East,Eurasia,Americas,Balkans,North Americas,MEDITERRANEAN,GREECE,NORTH AMERICA,USA,AMERICAS,SOUTHERN EUROPE,EUROPE,BULGARIA,WESTERN EUROPE,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Europe,Middle East,Eurasia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T11:02:59Z --------------------
Title: The following lists selected items from the Greek Press on 29 May; To request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735, or fax (703) 613-5735; For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
Journal: Greece -- OSC Summary
Text:
--Athens O Kosmos Tou Ependhiti has a report by Khristina Poulidhou that Turkish PM Erdogan "came to Greece determined to charm the country, but was unsuccessful" because of the perception that "while the Turkish people are amiable and resembles Greeks, official Turkey is  compact an immutable in its aggressiveness."  (page 17, 600 words)In a commentary and report on pages Stavros Liyeros says that despite the niceties during PM Erdogan's visit, "the difference in Greek and Turkish positions was evident;" that Erdogan's proposals refer to a Turkish desire for "a co-administration of the Aegean."  Liyeros also points out the Turkish "acrobatics" regarding the "The Hague, territorial waters and the extent of (Greek) airspace."  (page 18, 800 words)In a commentary under the military column Manos Iliadhis reiterates the column's position that Greek failures to maintain the balance of power with Turkey has resulted in an "asymmetrical peace."  Iliadhis considers the suggestion of 
 mutual arms reduction to be "a trap."  (page 39, 800 words) (Athens O Kosmos tou Ependhiti--Independent, political and economic weekly) China Ocean Shipping Company (COSCO) Investments in Greece--Athens O Kosmos Tou Ependhiti carries an interview with COSCO boss Wei Jiafu by Savvas Athanasiou.  Wei Jiafu "speaks of the investments in Greece, the company's plans extending beyond the port (of Piraeus) and the new Greek (investment) proposals to China."  (pages 6-7, 900 words) Cyprus--In a report on page 19 of Athens O Kosmos Tou Ependhiti Khristina Poulidhou says that "Cypriot political factors and international diplomats assess that either a settlement of the Cyrus issue will be ready or the Turkish-occupied north will secede, in the fashion of Kosovo."  (500 words)On page 11 of Athens To Vima Ang. Athanasopoulos reports that "Turkey is in a hurry to resolve the Cyprus issue."  Athanasopoulos expands by referring to dates of coming meetings and statements by the UNSG.  (500 w
 ords) (Athens To Vima--independent daily, critical of the New Democracy party) Germany--The front-page headline of Athens O Kosmos Tou Ependhiti reads "Merkel is setting up a Fourth Reich."  A report and commentary by Dhim. Konstandakopoulos on page 20 argues that "Germany is imposing an economic 'Fourth Reich' in an EU racked by the debt crisis" against "a backdrop of a global war between the euro and the US dollar."  (800 words)Khristos N. Konstas and Panos Kosmas elaborate on "what lies behind the collapse of the euro." (pages 6-7 of the financial section, 800 words) Energy--An item under the "Political Marketplace" rubric on page 12 Athens O Kosmos Tou Ependhiti says that a bill is being drafted to institute the body which will handle exploration for hydrocarbons in Greece.  The report sketches the provisions.  (150 words)Thodhoris Panagoulis reports that "Bulgaria's obstructionist tactics are foiling the major Burgas-Alexandroupolis" pipeline project."  (page 9 of the f
 inancial section)An unattributed report on page 11 of Athens To Vima says that the Russian government has invited the Greek government to Russia to sign the agreement to establish the Southstream natural gas pipeline.  (300 words) Domestic Political, Domestic Economic; PASOK--The editorial signed by Nikos Felekis on page 2 of Athens O Kosmos Tou Ependhiti argues that when Greece emerges from meeting its obligations under the EU-IMF bailout plan it will need a "new political and economic plan for the future" in "a Europe which gradually is entering a social and economic civil war;" and that Greek politicians would be well advised to heed this.  (700 words)In a report in page 9 K. Tsouparopoulos says that "for the time being, social discontent is focused on the party system overall, leaving the government almost intact; nevertheless government officers fear 'unforeseen events',  such as the case of (deputy culture minister Gerekou's tax-evading husband) Voskopoulos (which led 
 to her dismissal)."  (600 words) ND--K.I. Angelopoulos reports on page 13 of Athens O Kosmos Tou Ependhiti that there is strife within ND, that party Chairman Samaras is "casting off" former prime minister Karamanlis, with Samaras' "mujaheddin are asking for his head on a platter;" while the Karamanlis faction is reacting.  (700 words) (OSC will process this item)Athens To Vima has a report by Dhespina Brousali that the testimony of the former head of the national real-estate department at the agricultural ministry "is damning for the Karamanlis court," implicating top ministers and former prime minister Karamanlis' chief of staff of complicity in illicit land deals with state property.  (page 4, 700 words)Athens Sto Karfi tou Savvatokiriakou has an unattributed report listing parliamentary deputies whom party Chairman Samaras "has proscribed."  The report lists them under three categories:  Those implicated in scandals; expelled unsuccessful leadership candidate Dora Bakoyi
 anni's supporters; those whom the party leadership consider "untrustworthy."  (page 13, 400 words)  (Athens Sto Karfi tou Savvatokiriakou--Independent, left-of-center weekly) (OSC will process this item)A. Ravanos reports that "many of (expelled unsuccessful leadership candidate) Dora Bakoyianni's supporters are (abandoning her and are) approaching (party chairman) Samaras."  (page 11, 500 words) (OSC will process this item) Sinaspismos--In a report on page 15 of Athens O Kosmos Tou Ependhiti Vangelis Papadhimitriou says that "the exclusion of Fotis Kouvelis, Sinaspismos parliamentary spokesman and head of the reformist faction from the party congress renders the differences between the factions into open warfare."  (500 words) Military--Inn a commentary on page 40 of Athens O Kosmos Tou Ependhiti Manos Iliadhis argues that while Greece "merely is paying (military procurement) debts of past years, Turkey is spending vast sums (on military procurements)" "arming itself to the
  teeth." (500 words)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic EconomicDomestic PoliticalEnergyLeaderMilitaryTerrorism,INTERNATIONAL ISSUES,GOVERNMENTIP
City: 
Geographic Code: BGR,GRC,QAT,RUS,USA
Geographic Name: Bulgaria,Greece,Qatar,Russia,United States,Europe,Middle East,Eurasia,Americas,Balkans,North Americas,MEDITERRANEAN,GREECE,TURKEY,WESTERN ASIA,CYPRUS,ASIA,SOUTHERN EUROPE,EUROPE,BULGARIA,WESTERN EUROPE,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Europe,Middle East,Eurasia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T11:09:08Z --------------------
Title: The following lists selected items from the Turkish press on 1 June; to request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735, or fax (703) 613-5735. For Islamist press highlights, see GMP20100601006001.
Journal: Turkey -- OSC Summary
Text:
http://www.milliyet.com.tr http://www.milliyet.com.tr )In a 470-word article in Hurriyet, Fatih Cekirge raises a few questions based on the Israeli claim that the aid activists were carrying weapons:   Why didn't the Turkish intelligence investigate those boarding the flotilla?  Why didn't Israel inform the Turkish authorities of the situation?  Why did Israel organize the attack on the flotillas knowing that the activists were carrying weapons?  Why did they not warn the Turkish authorities prior to the flotilla departing from Turkey?  Why didn't Israel cooperate with Turkey on the issue?  Noting that the responses to these questions bring one to the nuclear issue, Cekirge argues that the nuclear swap deal concluded by Turkey has disturbed Israel, thus prompting it to try and change Turkey's image as follows:  "Turkey is not a country that wants peace in the region.  Turkey is a power that wants to establish a block against Israel in cooperation with Iran, HAMAS, and Palesti
 ne, in other word the Islamic world." Noting that Israel's plan of equating Turkey with radical Islam has failed, Cekirge describes the killing of Turkish citizens as murder.  Summing up the flotilla incident as a trap prepared against the nuclear agreement, Cekirge concludes that Israel has been caught in its own trap. (Istanbul Hurriyet Online in Turkish -- Website of pro-secular, mass-appeal daily, one of country's top circulation papers, owned by Dogan Media Group; URL:http://www.hurriyet.com.tr http://www.hurriyet.com.tr )Describing the attack on the aid flotilla as an act of piracy by an arrogant and aggressive state in a 370-word article in Hurriyet, Oktay Eksi underlines that this incident will deal a very heavy blow on Israel's international image. Fearing that a possible UN Security Council resolution denouncing Israel will not yield a de facto solution, Eksi explains that so long as Israel is supported by the United States it will continue to act recklessly.  Eksi
  writes: "In conclusion, I do not believe that Turkish-Israeli relations that have gradually deteriorated during the last year can improve so long as the current governments of the two countries remain in power.  Therefore, Turkey has abandoned its policy of being 'equidistant' from all the Middle East countries.  It is too early to predict where this will lead us."Also describing the Israeli attack on "a civilian vessel and innocent people in international waters as an act of piracy in the first 250-word section of his article in Hurriyet, Mehmet Yilmaz underlines that this is the response given by the current Israel "racist" and "fascist" government to all the efforts being exerted for a just peace in the Middle East. In conclusion, Yilmaz argues that there can be no tranquility until the Israeli people come to their senses and elect a government that really intends to resolve the problem.Describing the Israeli attack on the aid flotilla as a conscious defiance of the Turk
 ish government in a 530-word article in Hurriyet, Sedat Ergin views the consequences of this new development in bilateral relations saying that Turkis h-Israeli military cooperation will be affected. Noting that the flotilla incident has also upset the balances in the region, Ergin argues that in the new power balances in the Middle East, Turkey and Israel have become two enemies.  (processing)Describing Israel as a "rogue state" in a 680-word article in Referans, Cengiz Candar argues that if Israel is not made to account for its deeds then one cannot speak about a peaceful solution in the Middle East.  Referring to the US reaction to the flotilla incident, Candar underlines that the unconditional "US security umbrella" has rendered Israel arrogant and reckless. Now the United States is forced to choose between its two regional allies, namely Turkey and Israel, writes Candar.  Viewing the bilateral dimension of the issue, Candar underlines that Turkish-Israeli relations have
  been damaged irreparably.  As for the international dimension, Candar predicts that if Turkey can well manage this international crisis, it can play a role in lifting the embargo on Gaza.  (processing)  (Istanbul Referans Online in Turkish -- Website of business daily owned by Aydin Dogan, head of the Dogan Media Group; URL:http://www.referansgazetesi.com http://www.referansgazetesi.com )A 480-word unattributed editorial in Hurriyet Daily News assesses that the flotilla incident has crushed the fragile hopes for Turkish-Israeli reconciliation.  Conceding that the aid flotilla was an act of provocation, the editorial argues that one cannot claim that Israel lacked better alternatives.  The editorial concludes: "It is a tragedy for those activists who have lost their lives. It is a tragedy for the Palestinians of Gaza. Above all it is a tragedy for the people of Israel, victims too of a vain and foolish government."  (processing)  (Istanbul Hurriyet Daily News.com in English 
 -- Website of Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review, pro-secular daily, with English-language versions from other Dogan Media Group dailies; URL:http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/ http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/ )No one can question the legitimate security concerns of Israel, says Yusuf Kanli in an 800-word article in Hurriyet Daily News.  Questioning, however, whether Israel has the right to turn Gaza into a huge concentration camp and condemn 1.5 million people living in that territory to survive on the mercy of the Israeli government, Kanli argues that Israel has decided to commit suicide with the attack on the aid flotilla.  Noting that a US veto to a Security Council resolution condemning the Israeli attack will make Washington an accomplice, Kanli urges the United States to lift its protective umbrella.  Underlining that this attack has inflicted a very serious wound on the Turkish-Israeli relations, Kanli concludes that even an official apology from Israel will not
  suffice to place relations back on a friendly track.  (processing)The military intervention in the aid flotilla was aimed at conveying a message to Turkey and to teaching it a lesson, writes Mehmet Ali Birand in the first 380-word section of his article in Hurriyet Daily News, adding that from now on it will be impossible to speak about a Turkish-Israeli alliance.  Pointing out that Israel will pay a high price for losing an ally like Turkey, Birand advises the Turkish government not to reduce the incident to a religious basis.  (processing)The Israeli armed raid on the aid flotilla and the PKK attack in Iskenderun cannot be assessed separately, argues Samil Tayyar in a 450-word article in Star, declaring that they are calculated and coordinated acts to convey a message to Turkey that has signed the nuclear swap deal with Iran.  (processing)  (Istanbul Star Online in Turkish -- Website of daily supportive of the liberalization of the Kemalist republic; URL:http://www.starga
 zete.com/ http://www.stargazete.com/ )Showing the unconditional support extended by the United States as the reason for Israel's disproportionate use of force and its violation of human rights in a 460-word article in Milliyet, Fikret Bila calls on Washington to change its stand and to apply serious pressure on Israel if peace and stability are to be achieved in the Middle East and the Mediterranean. For the United Nations to be able to fulfill its functions, the United States should renounce vetoing the Security Council resolutions concerning Israel, declares Bila, calling on the international community to apply pressure on the United States as well as on Israel.  Noting that the flotilla incident will further erode Turkish-Israeli relations, Bila says that with this attack Israel has sabotaged its cooperation with the Turkish Armed Forces, TSK, as well.Summing up the flotilla incident as Israel's defiance of Turkey, the United States, and Europe in the first 260-word secti
 on of his article in Milliyet, Mehmet Tezkan notes that instead of resolving the issue through other methods Israel chose to disregard the international community, diplomacy, and bilateral relations.  Underlining that Israel knowingly committed a massacre and a crime against humanity, Tezkan concludes that the United Nations, the United States, the EU, and the Arab world will be subjected to an important test in the coming period.Turkey's reaction to the Israel "terror" should not be limited to a few harsh statements and the token cancellation of a few military exercises, writes Can Atakli in a 330-word article in Vatan.  Questioning whether the government assessed the risks of sending the aid flotilla and the necessary security measures, Atakli asks whether diplomatic contact was established with the Israeli government and whether the reaction of the Turkish government to a possible attack was explained.  Wondering whether the government took into consideration that a milit
 ary attack on a Turkish vessel could create a casus belli, Atakli questions why the intelligence cooperation between the two countries failed.  (Istanbul Vatan Online in Turkish -- Website of pro-secular daily owned by Dogan Media Group; URL:http://www.gazetevatan.com http://www.gazetevatan.com )A 300-word report in Sabah details the statements HAMAS leaders made to the daily on the aid flotilla issue.  (processing)  (Istanbul Sabah Online in Turkish -- Website of pro-government daily owned by Calik Group, close to the ruling Justice and Development Party; URL:http://sabah.com.tr http://sabah.com.tr )Stressing that the world no longer wants a "pirate and aggressive Israel," Mahmut Ovur in a 320-word article in Sabah asks what Turkey intends to do on the issue.  Noting that political circles favor the adoption of a harsh policy against Israel, Ovur states that not recognizing the state of Israel is one of the proposals made.The occurrence of this act of defiance and folly on 
 the part of Israel coincides with signs of change in the US policy toward Israel, according to Radikal columnist Oral Calislar, adding that attacking and killing the passengers of a vessel belonging to the Turkish Republic is tantamount to risking the destruction of bilateral relations. Questioning the strategy behind an act that risks the severance of ties with Turkey and the disruption of ties with the United States in his 650-word article, Calislar declares that Israel has crossed certain lines with this recent attack.  (Istanbul Radikal Online in Turkish -- Website of pro-secular and liberal daily owned by Dogan Media Group; URL:http://www.radikal.com.tr http://www.radikal.com.tr )Declaring that Israelis are being governed by a "gang of maniacs" in a 530-word article in Taraf, Ahmet Altan says that this nation believes that it will be forgiven for every crime as a result of the influence it exerts within the US community and administration.  The Israeli government, unawa
 re of the changes in the world and in the United States, believes that it has the freedom to kill the innocent, writes Altan, adding that the milita ry power that the Israeli administration is so proud of is gradually diminishing. Viewing the flotilla operation at a total fiasco, Altan argues that the beating of the Israeli soldiers cannot be shown as an excuse for the murders committed.  Noting that Israel attacked a vessel in international waters confident of the unconditional support of the United States, Altan declares that it will not find that support since the United States is well aware of the reaction it will be faced with in the event it extends it. Predicting that this Israeli attack will lead to unforeseen changes, alliances, and new formations, Altan urges the world to make the Israeli government pay the blood it has shed.  (Istanbul Taraf Online in Turkish -- Website of antimilitarist and liberal daily; URL:http://www.taraf.com.tr http://www.taraf.com.tr ) PKK 
 Attack in Iskenderun/Kurdish IssueReferring to AKP deputy leader Celik's comments on the PKK attack launched in Iskenderun in the second 210-word section of his article in Hurriyet, Mehmet Yilmaz writes: "Let us assume that this attack was launched as a result of the instigation of foreign countries that are not pleased with Turkey's foreign policy as claimed by Celik.  Does this exonerate the government from its responsibility?  Who is responsible for ensuring public order in this country?"  Launching a half-baked overture project and then accusing foreign countries of escalating the terror is a sign of weakness, argues Yilmaz.  Assuming that Celik has some intelligence information to make such claims, Yilmaz calls on the minister to declare the names of these countries.Assessing the PKK calculations to be erroneous in the second 310-word section of his article in Hurriyet Daily News, Mehmet Ali Birand laments the fact that all what is left of the Kurdish overture is being 
 destroyed. Noting that each terror incident is hardening the Turkish public, Birand argues that Ocalan and the PKK will not obtain a say in negotiations through these attacks, concluding that they have to live with the consequences of their actions.  (processing)Viewing the PKK attack in Iskenderun in the second 120-word section of his article in Milliyet, Mehmet Tezkan asks the following questions:  How did the PKK militants arrive in Iskenderun?  Where did they escape after the attack?  Were they acting on behalf of Israel as claimed by CHP leader Kilicdaroglu and AKP deputy leader Celik? Recalling that there are some 1,500 Syrian citizens within the PKK forces and a Kurdish population of some two million within Syria, Tezkan writes: "Therefore, Damascus cannot shirk responsibility with regards to the Syrian PKK members, especially after the abolition of the visa requirement!"Viewing the remarks made by Kilicdaroglu and Celik implying that Israel and its secret service mig
 ht be behind the PKK attack in Iskenderun in a 460-word article in Vatan, Rusen Cakir says: "One cannot deny that the current Israeli government might resort to every method to 'punish' the Turkish government, and consequently Turkey, for the steps it has recently been taking on the path to becoming a regional power, most of which disturb Israel."  Cakir adds that, however, he does not believe that Israel is behind the PKK attacks.  Assessing the Iskenderun attack as a critical turning point in the Kurdish and PKK issues, Cakir argues that now it will be even more difficult to revive the Kurdish overture.Recalling the recent threats issued by Ocalan, a Peace and Democracy Party, BDP, member, and the president of the Diyarbakir Bar, Vatan columnist Can Atakli in the second 450-word section of his article faults the government for not taking measures in the face of these threats. Pointing out that the deadline given by Ocalan ended on 31 May, Atakli calls on the government not
  to hide behind abstracts statements such as "dark and secret forces" and to find the perpetrators of the Iskenderun attack.  Questioning what the intelligence units of the state are doing and why the intelligence cooperation with the United States has failed, Atakli stresses that the government is obligated to shed light over the recent terrorist attacks. Imbalance in Turkish-Russian RelationsViewing the reasons that have motivated Russia to change its decades-old attitude on visa requirements for Turkish citizens in an 850-word article in Hurriyet Daily News, Barcin Yinanc says that lifting visa restrictions does not seem to be a high price to pay for the $20 billion deal to build Turkey's first nuclear power plant.  Focusing on Russia's resistance to the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, Yinanc points out the imbalance in Turkish-Russian relations.  (processing) Turkey's Iran PolicyQuestioning whether Turkey's Iran policy actually serves Turkey in an 870-word article in Hurriyet Dail
 y News, Soner Cagaptay argues that Turkey's policy vis-a- vis Iran appears to be enabling Iran to deflect Western criticism over its nuclear program, while continuing to stockpile the material needed to construct a nuclear weapon.  Viewing Turkey's aspiration of becoming a key player in the region, Cagaptay explains that Turkey cannot become a regional power if it enables Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon, adding: "The stated goal of Turkey's Iran policy and the results of this policy are in direct contradiction." (processing)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalEnergyInternational PoliticalMilitaryProliferationTerrorism,SOCIAL ISSUES,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONSIP
City: 
Geographic Code: TUR,ISR,USA,GZ,IRN,WE,RUS
Geographic Name: Turkey,Israel,United States,Gaza Strip,Iran,West Bank,Russia,Europe,Middle East,Americas,Eurasia,South Europe,North Americas,SYRIA,WESTERN ASIA,FAR EAST,AMERICAS,USA,EUROPE,GULF STATES,IRAN,ISRAEL,PALESTINE,MEDITERRANEAN,NORTH AMERICA,TURKEY,BRUNEI,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,RUSSIA,USSR,SOUTHEAST ASIA,MIDDLE EAST,ARAB STATES,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Europe,Middle East,Americas,Eurasia






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T10:37:31Z --------------------
Title: GLONASS Cluster To Be Brought To Full Strength This Year - Official
Journal: ITAR-TASS
Text:
intervention)MOSCOW, June 1 (Itar-Tass) - Russia will bring its cluster of GLONASS navigation satellites to full strength this year, director of the Federal Space Agency (Roskosmos) Anatoly Perminov said on Tuesday.Speaking at the 4th international satellite navigation forum, Perminov noted that "the GLONASS system takes a special place in terms of the degree of its influence on the rate of the country's socio-economic development.""This system is a crucial part of state infrastructure, ensuring national security and the country's economic development," he noted.Perminov reminded that at present, the GLONASS cluster has 23 satellites. Twenty-one of them are in dedicated use, and two are in reserve."In 2010, the original cluster will be brought to full strength. We plan to launch three GLONASS-M satellites in August. Another three units of the same class are to be launched in November. The existing group of satellites provides an accuracy of 6 meters in navigation," the Roskos
 mos director said.Speaking about the guidelines for international cooperation in the use of GLONASS, Perminov reminded that on May 17, Russia and Ukraine signed an intergovernmental agreement on cooperation in the use and development of GLONASS.He reminded that the other day, an agreement was signed on setting up the first Russian-U.S. joint venture which would operate in the field of satellite navigation.Another guideline for international cooperation is the establishment of ground facilities of GLONASS in other countries.Taking part in the forum are 1,200 specialists from 350 companies, as well as representatives of the United States' GPS and Europe's Galileo systems."The delegations of the national space agencies of Ukraine and Kazakhstan are taking part in the forum's work for the first time," the organizing committee emphasized.The GLONASS system -- which is open to civil use - is intended for forming a continuous navigation signal enabling the user to determine, with a
  high degree of accuracy, the coordinates and speed of movement of any moving object equipped with GLONASS receivers. The system also resolves tasks in the interests of Russia's national security.Initially, GLONASS was commissioned to service the Russian Defense Ministry in September 1993 and had 12 satellites in the cluster.In December 1995, the cluster was brought to full strength of 24 units, but later deteriorated due to funding problems.On February 18, 1999, a presidential degree designated GLONASS as a dual-purpose system.In December 2005, Vladimir Putin ordered Roskosmos and the Defense Ministry to step up the rebuilding of the GLONASS system.According to Perminov, Russia developed 33 models of equipment for civil GLONASS users."By now, 33 models of navigation equipment for civil users of GLONASS have been developed in Russia, and 38 models for special users," he said.At present, navigation equipment is installed on 20 percent of aircraft, 30 percent of sea-going and 
 inland vessels, and 63 percent of motor vehicles, according to the Roskosmos director.The objective is to equip 100 percent of the means of transport of Russian ministries and agencies with GLONASS equipment by 2011.Speaking about applied tasks that GLONASS might help fulfill, Perminov said "you know about the odd behavior of the bridge in Volgograd.""We offered our services to monitor the condition of this bridge," he said. In his opinion, it is necessary to monitor all transport infrastructure facilities in Russia with GLONASS.Alexander Gurko, director general of "Navigation-Information Systems," a federal network operator of the GLONASS system, said the project to ensure road safety would be implemented in 2012-2013."The purpose of setting up this subsystem is to lower the rate of traffic crash fatalities by providing quick assistance to persons who had road accidents," Gurkov said.Last week, Navigation-Information Systems signed a contract with the Federal Space Agency. 
 The work to design the system will begin this year. It will be commissioned by 2012-2013."ERA GLONASS" is an abbreviation for "quick response to road accidents by means of the GLONASS global positioning system. In case of a road accident, a GLONASS system via a satellite link will send a message to the nearest first-aid station.General designer of the GLONASS system Yuri Urlichich said in a message to the participants in the forum that "a decision has been made to provide budget funding for the long-term ERA GLONASS project.""The implementation of the project will dramatically enhance the level of safety of road users and create groundwork for developing intellectual transport systems," Urlichich said.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed t
 o NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalLeader,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Moscow
Geographic Code: RUS,UKR,KAZ,USA
Geographic Name: Russia,Ukraine,Kazakhstan,United States,Eurasia,Europe,Americas,Central Eurasia,Central Europe,North Americas,EUROPE,UKRAINE,RUSSIA,USSR,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Eurasia,Europe,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T11:04:00Z --------------------
Title: Artyom Saveliev To Be Adopted By Patronage Family
Journal: ITAR-TASS
Text:
intervention)MOSCOW, June 1 (Itar-Tass) - Artyom Saveliev, whom his American foster mother sent back to Russia alone, explaining that she did not want him any more in their family, will be adopted by a patronage family, Pavel Astakhov, commissioner for the rights of children under the Russian President, said here on Tuesday."There are three families wishing to adopt Artyom, but, most probably, he will go to a family of Russian diplomats," Astakhov said at a press conference. "That family has some experience and a good knowledge of English, because they worked for a long time in an English-speaking country. Artyom speaks Russian fluently, however. His problem seems to have been settled. He is still staying at a patronage institution, but he will go to the patronage family within a month."Patronage upbringing is one of the new forms of the adoption of children by families, under which the foster parents share with patronage institutions both the rights and obligations, connecte
 d with the protection of the rights of children.Early in April, this year, the American grandmother of Artyom Saveliev, eight years old, who was adopted by an American family in the Primorsky Territory, sent him by plane from Washington to Moscow with nobody to accompany the boy. He only had with him a letter to the Russian ministry of education, in which Terry Hansen, his foster mother, said that she did not want him any more as an adopted child. After that outrageous case the Russian foreign ministry announced that Russia was going to suspend the adoption of Russian children by Americans until a special agreement is concluded with the United States, which would regulate all aspects of the adoption process.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be dire
 cted to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalLeader,SOCIAL ISSUESIP
City: Moscow
Geographic Code: RUS,USA
Geographic Name: Russia,United States,Eurasia,Americas,North Americas,EUROPE,NORTH AMERICA,AMERICAS,RUSSIA,USSR,USA,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Eurasia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T10:28:19Z --------------------
Title: Ukraine To Confirm Its Non-bloc Status In New Law
Journal: ITAR-TASS
Text:
intervention)KIEV, June 1 (Itar-Tass) -- Ukraine is determined to legally confirm its non-bloc status, which implies non-participation in military and political alliances of other states. This clause will be part and parcel of a new law on the basics of foreign and home policies, the deputy chief of the parliamentary committee for foreign affairs, Leonid Kozhara, said on Tuesday.President Viktor Yanukovich is determined to ask parliament to consider the bill on the basics of home and foreign policies as an urgent one."Today we shall consider this bill. After that I shall identify it as an urgent one for early consideration by parliament," Yanukovich said in his opening remarks at a meeting of the National Security and Defense Council.He said the bill declared consolidation and accord in society as the main priority of the foreign policy."In foreign policy the bill points to the European vector as the greatest priority for the state," Yanukovich said, adding that the bill also
  noted the need for establishing strategic partnership with Russia and the importance of relations with the United States.The president pointed out that the bill envisages cooperation between Ukraine and the North Atlantic structures for the sake of ensuring the necessary condition of the country' s defenses.Kozhara told the media that a future law would put on record Ukraine's non-bloc status."This draft law is to reaffirm Ukraine's non-bloc status, just as the president said. This implies Ukraine's non-participation in military-political alliances of other states. The second aspect of fundamental importance is that we shall be cooperating in the sphere of security and defense with other states," Kozhara said.He did not rule out that the bill would be considered in the first reading on June 3.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission
  for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalMilitaryLeaderMedia,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENT,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRSIP
City: Moscow
Geographic Code: RUS,UKR,USA
Geographic Name: Russia,Ukraine,United States,Eurasia,Europe,Americas,Central Europe,North Americas,EUROPE,UKRAINE,RUSSIA,USSR,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Eurasia,Europe,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T08:28:59Z --------------------
Title: Russian Technologies chooses Boeing aircraft to renovate its passenger fleets
Journal: ITAR-TASS
Text:
passenger fleetsText of report by Russian state news agency ITAR-TASSMoscow, 1 June: US company Boeing has won a tender by the Russian Technologies (Rostekhnologii) state corporation to supply medium-range narrowbody aircraft for fleet renovation of the corporation-controlled airlines, says a Russian Technologies press release.An analysis of the commercial proposals has demonstrated that Boeing made the best offer in terms of its technical, operating and financial parameters, Russian Technologies says.Russian Technologies and (Russian flag carrier) Aeroflot will shortly begin forming orders for a specific aircraft type, PRIME-TASS (news agency) reports.(Interfax news agency, Moscow, in Russian, reported at 0737 gmt on 1 June that the losing parties in the tender were Airbus SAS and Russia's United Aircraft Corporation.)(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in Russian -- Main government information agency)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
  source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic Economic,MAJOR CORPORATIONS,MANUFACTURING AND PRODUCTIONIP
City: Moscow
Geographic Code: RUS,USA
Geographic Name: Russia,United States,Eurasia,Americas,North Americas,EUROPE,RUSSIA,USSR,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Eurasia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T05:16:09Z --------------------
Title: Bezymyanny Volcano On Kamchatka Spews Ash At 10 Km Height
Journal: ITAR-TASS
Text:
intervention)PETROPAVLOVSK-KAMCHATSKY, June 1 (Itar-Tass) - The Bezymyanny volcano on the Kamchatka Peninsula has started to erupt, the Kamchatka branch of the geophysical service of the Russian Academy of Sciences told Itar-Tass.The intensification of the giant mount's activity was registered at 00:30, local time (16:30, MSK on May 31). The most active phase lasted for 20 minutes, scientists say. During this period the volcano was spewing ash that stretched in a plume towards the Sea of Okhotsk (west of the volcano). According to specialists, the ash plume has stretched for 20 kilometres. A small ash fall was registered in the Kozyrevsk settlement (40 km from the volcano) on Kamchatka. A hot rock and mud flow came down the volcano.The aviation code Red has been given to the volcano. All concerned services have been informed about the danger that the volcanic ash may present for aircraft, the Kamchatka Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT) reported.The eruption's intensity 
 has subsided, as compared with the initial phase, but the giant mount maintains activity, specialists noted.Bezymyanny is one of 29 active volcanoes of Kamchatka. Its height is about 2,800 metres above sea level. Its eruptions are explosive. They occur one or two times a year and may last from several hours to several days. In recent years scientists have managed to predict the periods of its activity intensification rather correctly.Bezymyanny is an active stratovolcano in Kamchatka. The volcano's name means "nameless," and it was considered to be extinct before the 1955 eruption.Bezymyanny is located on the southeast slope of the extinct volcano Kamen. Its greatest eruption happened in 1955-1956 which lowered the top of the mountain by about 200 m (600 ft). The surrounding landscape of the mountain was changed by a lateral blast that flattened the area with thick ash and pyroclastic flow-like materials.The 1956 eruption of Bezymianny was similar to the May 18, 1980 eruptio
 n of Mount St. Helens in the United States. During the 1956 eruption, a debris avalanche removed 0.5 cubic kilometres of material and also produced a "directed blast" as magma became exposed at the surface. A horseshoe-shaped crater was also formed, although it has been largely filled. Then the volcano that was 3,080 metres high, during a short period of time became lower by 280 metres. Its recent eruption was observed last winter.The volcano is located in the central part of the Klyuchevskaya group 385 kilometres northeast of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. The Nearby populated localities are Klyuchi and Kozyrevsk.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic Political
City: Moscow
Geographic Code: RUS,USA
Geographic Name: Russia,United States,Eurasia,Americas,North Americas,EUROPE,RUSSIA,USSR,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Eurasia,Americas






-------------------- Monday April 5, 2010 T14:06:55Z --------------------
Title: Kremlin not seeking simultaneous ratification of new arms treaty with USA
Journal: Interfax
Text:
with USAExcerpt from report by corporate-owned Russian news agency InterfaxMoscow, 5 April: The Russian side will not insist on a simultaneous ratification by the Russian and US parliaments of the treaty on strategic offensive arms, which the presidents of the two countries will sign in Prague on 8 April, aide to the Russian president Sergey Prikhodko has announced."There is no objective of ratifying the treaty on the same day," Prikhodko told journalists on Monday (5 April)."We have a different quality of relations with the Americans these days. We trust each other much more than before," the aide to the Russian president stressed. "We don't have the impression that we could be 'duped'," the Kremlin spokesman remarked."It is important for the Russian side that the examination of this document in the legislatures of Russia and the USA should be more or less synchronized," he said. "If there is no exact match in terms of ratification time, it will be no tragedy. The issue is n
 ot political," Prikhodko stressed."The two countries have already displayed their political will: the treaty was prepared in the course of very difficult but frank joint work," the presidential aide noted."We have no doubt that it will be ratified, that both the State Duma and the US parliament will ratify this document. This is the measure of responsibility of each signatory," Prikhodko said."Conditions for this ratification should be created jointly," he said. "We intend to continue this work," the Russian president's aide assured his audience. He revealed that the presidents of the Russian Federation and the USA would be accompanied in Prague by representatives of the relevant committees of the two countries' parliaments, who would have the opportunity to discuss the subject. (Passage omitted: earlier quotes from Prikhodko, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov)(Description of Source: Moscow Interfax in Russian -- Nonofficial information agency known for its extensive and detail
 ed reporting on domestic and international issues)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalProliferationUrgent,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Moscow
Geographic Code: RUS,USA
Geographic Name: Russia,United States,Eurasia,Americas,North Americas,CENTRAL EUROPE,EUROPE,NORTH AMERICA,CZECH REPUBLIC,CZECHOSLOVAKIA,AMERICAS,RUSSIA,USSR,USA,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Eurasia,Americas






-------------------- Friday March 19, 2010 T13:44:29Z --------------------
Title: The New Cuban Missile Crisis   Opinion   The Moscow Times
Journal: The Moscow Times Online
Text:
While history will remember the 20th century for the nuclear arms race, the 21st century might be remembered for the missile defense arms race. About 20 countries now possess missile defense systems, but more than 40 states are expected to have them by midcentury. In fact, by 2050 an entire coordinated system will appear of ground-based, sea-based, air-based and possibly even space-based missile defense elements.At the same time, the United States and its NATO partners are trying to downplay the negative consequences that missile defense will have on international security, saying it is purely defensive in nature. The standard explanation is that the missile shield will consist of 40 ground-based interceptors positioned on the territory of the continental United States and several dozen more interceptor missiles deployed on the territory of NATO member states and on war-ready battleships.The spread of U.S. and NATO missile defense systems to many regions of the planet will in
 evitably lead to an increase in missile defense development-related expenditures. In fact, the current rate of spending will soon outstrip total U.S. outlays for missile defense for the past 25 years combined. Washington spent $132 billion on missile defense over the past quarter century, but now the Pentagon plans to invest $50 billion on such programs over the next three years alone. In addition, the U.S. missile defense program will receive $7.4 billion in budgetary funds in 2010, and the White House is planning to ask Congress for $9.9 billion in 2011.Interceptor missiles have steadily become more effective as both their accuracy and range have increased. This enables the United States to convert the existing tactical missile defense system in Europe into a strategic system capable of striking and taking out intercontinental ballistic missiles during all three phases of their flight -- boost, midcourse and re-entry.Washington-s development of a new program to 'reconfigur
 e missile defense' will be linked to the strategic and tactical nuclear capabilities of the United States, Britain, France and a range of other NATO member states, as well as to space-based weapons that the countries of the West might deploy in the future.The result is that the 'new missile defense architecture' announced by U.S. President Barack Obama last year might turn out to be a dangerous undertaking that could lead to a breakdown of strategic stability in the world. The United States has yet to convince Moscow that this undertaking will not undermine Russia-s national security. Moscow officials are now wondering if the West isn-t leading the world toward another Cuban missile crisis.One of the paradoxes of the 21st century is that while there is near parity between U.S. and Russian offensive strategic nuclear weapons, there is a significant imbalance between not only the number of interceptors in the two country-s missile defense arsenal but the geographic configurati
 on since Russia has no missile defense elements deployed outside its national borders.While the number of strategic nuclear weapon are decreasing -- and rightfully so -- the missile defense elements deployments are increasing along with their effectiveness, and this is a dangerous trend. Understanding that this trend destabilizes global security, many nations are proposing a pact that would limit the deployment of a nation-s missile defense system to its home territory only.If this agreement cannot be achieved, we will be faced with both a missile defense arms race and another offensive arms race as well. Vladimir Kozin is head of the analytical section of the Asia-Pacific department at the Foreign Ministry. The views expressed in this comment are his own.Tagsnuclear   NATO   United States   missileDiscussionCommentsThe Moscow Times welcomes comments from our readers and encourages you to participate in creating a dialogue about modern-day politics, business and events in Ru
 ssia. In order to post a comment, you must first be registered with our site, and all comments must adhere to our comments policy.1. Comments must pertain to the topic of the corresponding article.2. Comments must not contain vulgarity, ad hominem attacks, slander or anything resembling hate speech.If you have posted a comment and it does not appear within 24 hours, please contact us.To post comments you must be authorized(Description of Source: Moscow The Moscow Times Online in English -- Website of daily English-language paper owned by the Finnish company International Media and often critical of the government; URL: http://www.themoscowtimes.com/)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational Political,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONSIP
City: Moscow
Geographic Code: CUB,FRA,RUS,USA
Geographic Name: Cuba,France,Russia,United States,Americas,Europe,Eurasia,Caribbean,North Americas,South Europe,CUBA,CARIBBEAN,NORTH AMERICA,USA,RUSSIA,USSR,AMERICAS,EUROPE,LATIN AMERICA,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Americas,Europe,Eurasia






-------------------- Friday February 5, 2010 T12:18:05Z --------------------
Title: Romania Plan Shows U.S. Unprepared to Cooperate With Russia on Missile Defense - Experts
Journal: Interfax
Text:
- expertsMOSCOW. Feb 5 (Interfax-AVN) - The United States has made the decision to locate interceptor missiles in Romania without taking Russia's opinion into account, which is a bad sign, said Maj. Gen. Vladimir Dvorkin, an ex-head of the Defense Ministry's 4th TSNII strategic weapons research institute."Eastern European countries' role in the American missile defense plans brings in a negative accent against the general background of the much needed Russia-West interaction in tackling security problems. The best way out of this situation would be Russia, the United States and Europe's fully-fledged participation in building information and weapons components of a joint missile defense system," Dvorkin told Interfax-AVN.Dvorkin was commenting on the U.S. Department of State's announcement of a plan to deploy land-based interceptor missiles in Romania by 2015."In any case, the emergence of a missile defense base in Romania poses no threat to Russia's nuclear deterrence potent
 ial, and this is so not only because it would be geographically far from the hypothetical trajectories of our intercontinental ballistic missiles," the expert said. "The resolve to build such a missile defense system is being incited by Iran's successes in developing long-range missiles, which can be judged from their most recent space experiments, and also from the absence of a prospect for resolving Iran's nuclear crisis," Dvorkin said.Vladimir Yevseyev, a senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Global Economy and International Relations, agrees that SM-3 missiles are only capable of intercepting medium-range ballistic missiles and are intended, above all, to deal with the Iranian missile threat."A launch site in Romania will help shoot down Iranian missiles, if launched towards Europe. Iran possess such missiles already," Yevseyev said.However, it is alarming that the United States continues making decisions on missile defense without taking the
  Russian opinion and interests into account, he said. "Meanwhile, Russia has quite a few things to offer as a contribution to common missile defense systems, including data from early warning radars, as well as our S-400 surface-to-air missile systems which surpass American Patriots (missile defense systems)," he said.sd dp(Our editorial staff can be reached at eng.editors@interfax.ru)Interfax-950040-WKMQABAAMaterial in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International Political,TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENTIP
City: Moscow
Geographic Code: IRN,RUS,USA
Geographic Name: Iran,Russia,United States,Middle East,Eurasia,Americas,North Americas,ROMANIA,NORTH AMERICA,WESTERN ASIA,USA,RUSSIA,USSR,AMERICAS,ASIA,EUROPE,MIDDLE EAST,GULF STATES,IRAN,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Middle East,Eurasia,Americas






-------------------- Monday October 12, 2009 T07:28:09Z --------------------
Title: U.S. Reaffirms Proposals to Russia on Missile Defense Cooperation
Journal: Interfax
Text:
WASHINGTON. Oct 12 (Interfax-AVN) - The U.S. reaffirms its previous proposals to Moscow regarding exchange of information obtained using the Russian early warning radar station in Armavir and that in Gabala, which Russia is renting from Azerbaijan, the U.S. Department of Defense said in a statement, in which it also explained a statement by Assistant Defense Secretary Alexander Vershbow made in a Thursday interview.The statement points out that Vershbow said that other countries in the region, such as Ukraine, may also have radars that could make their contribution to early warning information, it says.Vershbow did not say anything about the deployment of U.S. radar stations or other missile defense facilities in Ukraine or that such a proposal was made to the Ukrainian government, it said.Interfax-950215-LJVDZAAAMaterial in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regardin
 g use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalMilitary
City: Moscow
Geographic Code: AZE,UKR,RUS,USA
Geographic Name: Azerbaijan,Ukraine,Russia,United States,Eurasia,Europe,Americas,Caucasus,Central Europe,North Americas,NORTH AMERICA,USA,RUSSIA,USSR,AMERICAS,EUROPE,UKRAINE,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Eurasia,Europe,Americas






-------------------- Wednesday September 30, 2009 T09:46:29Z --------------------
Title: Roscosmos Head Invited to Watch Launch of U.S. Space Shuttle
Journal: Interfax
Text:
BAIKONUR, Kazakhstan. Sept 30 (Interfax-AVN) - New NASA chief Charles Bolden has invited head of the Russian Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos) Anatoly Perminov to visit the United States in order to watch the launch of one of the space shuttles.During his first meeting with Perminov at the Baikonur space center in Kazakhstan, Bolden said that the Roscosmos director could visit the U.S. during one of the remaining six shuttle launches.The NASA chief, however, said he could not guarantee an exact launch date because space shuttle launches tended to be plagued by numerous delays.Perminov earlier traveled to the U.S. to watch the launch of a space shuttle. However, after two days of waiting, the Roscosmos chief had to return to Russia because the launch was delayed once again.Interfax-950215-ARVYYAAAMaterial in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be direct
 ed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalMilitaryTechnologyInternational Economic,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONSIP
City: Moscow
Geographic Code: KAZ,RUS,USA
Geographic Name: Kazakhstan,Russia,United States,Eurasia,Americas,Central Eurasia,North Americas,NORTH AMERICA,WESTERN ASIA,USA,KAZAKHSTAN,RUSSIA,USSR,AMERICAS,ASIA,EUROPE,CENTRAL ASIA,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Eurasia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday September 29, 2009 T11:53:10Z --------------------
Title: Russia Against Europe's Missile Def Being Part Of US System-Rogozin
Journal: ITAR-TASS
Text:
intervention)MOSCOW, September 29 (Itar-Tass) -- Russia is against the European missile defense becoming part of the US anti-missile system and, depending on this, it will make a decision on the expediency of cooperation with NATO in the sphere of missile defense, Russia's permanent representative at NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, said on Tuesday.He pointed out that Russia would be able to cooperate with NATO over missile defense issues "on the condition it has more clarity and predictability regarding Washington's proposals, if we have the understanding that the European missile defense initiative will not be part of the US missile defense system."(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalMilitaryLeader
City: Moscow
Geographic Code: RUS,USA
Geographic Name: Russia,United States,Eurasia,Americas,North Americas,EUROPE,RUSSIA,USSR,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Eurasia,Americas






-------------------- Monday September 28, 2009 T14:17:14Z --------------------
Title: Ukrainian-US Defence Consultations Begin In Kiev
Journal: ITAR-TASS
Text:
intervention)KIEV, September 28 (Itar-Tass) -- Bilateral Ukrainian-U.S. defence consultations began in Kiev on Monday.The American delegation is led by Assistant Secretary of Defence for International Security Affairs Alexander Vershbow. The Ukrainian delegation is headed by acting Defence Minister Valery Ivashchenko, the Defence Ministry press service said.During the three-day consultations, the parties will discuss "strategic challenges facing Ukraine, Ukrainian-American strategic and defence partnership and bilateral security cooperation", the press service said.On Tuesday, two working groups will meet. Vershbow will also meet leading representatives of "Ukraine's political and diplomatic elite and address the students of the Diplomatic Academy".(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright ho
 lder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic Political,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Moscow
Geographic Code: RUS,UKR,USA
Geographic Name: Russia,Ukraine,United States,Eurasia,Europe,Americas,Central Europe,North Americas,EUROPE,UKRAINE,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Eurasia,Europe,Americas






-------------------- Friday August 21, 2009 T11:24:31Z --------------------
Title: About Half Of Ukrainians Favor EU, Most Dislike NATO
Journal: Interfax-AVN Online
Text:
intervention)KYIV. Aug 21 (Interfax-AVN) - Nearly half of the Ukrainians have a positive opinion about the European Union, while the majority of the Ukrainian population are feeling negative about the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).These are the findings of a social study conducted by the Kyiv Institute of Administration Problems on August 10-18, 2009.According to the polls findings, 46.8% of Ukrainians have a favorable opinion about the EU, with 11.3% of them claiming they have a very favorable opinion about the EU. Twenty-two point six percent of the respondents have an unfavorable view of the EU, 8.9% of them with a very unfavorable view. Nineteen point two percent of the respondents have no opinion about the EU, while 1.5% could not answer.Meanwhile, most Ukrainians (62.3%) said they have a negative view of NATO. Twenty-six point five percent of the respondents said they had a very unfavorable view of the Alliance. The organization is being positively perceived
  by 21% respondents, with 3% of them having a very favorable view of NATO. Sixteen point five percent of respondents have no opinion about NATO, and 0.5% could not answer.About half of Ukrainians (47.6%) are feeling negative about the United States. Seventeen point four percent said they have a very unfavorable opinion about this country. Of the 33.8% respondents who have a positive view of the U.S. only 3% have a very favorable opinion about this country. Eighteen point four percent of respondents have no opinion about the U.S., while 0.5% could not answer.The social poll was conducted among 2,000 respondents in 160 Ukrainian towns.(Description of Source: Moscow Interfax-AVN Online in English -- Website of news service devoted to military news and owned by the independent Interfax news agency; URL: http://www.militarynews.ru)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inqu
 iries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalMilitaryInternational Political,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENT,POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHICS,FORECASTSIP
City: Moscow
Geographic Code: RUS,UKR,USA
Geographic Name: Russia,Ukraine,United States,Eurasia,Europe,Americas,Central Europe,North Americas,EUROPE,UKRAINE,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Eurasia,Europe,Americas






-------------------- Wednesday August 5, 2009 T09:54:17Z --------------------
Title: Differences on Georgia No Longer Obstructing Russian Ties With West - Lavrov
Journal: Interfax
Text:
LavrovMOSCOW. Aug 5 (Interfax) - Disagreements on Georgia are no longer obstructing the development of relations between Russia and the West, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said."Our latest contacts with our Western partners do show that they (Western nations) assume a different position on Georgia, but this is already being done without any overexcitement, and this is being done, I would say, in a routine manner. And the Georgian issue is no longer obstructing the development of our relations," Lavrov said on Vesti-24 news television channel on Wednesday.In particular, the Georgian issue "absolutely did not influence the contents of the very important decisions (during U.S. President Barack Obama's recent visit to Moscow), although they have yet to be implemented," Lavrov said.va bc(Our editorial staff can be reached at eng.editors@interfax.ru)Interfax-950040-UCOHYAAAMaterial in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for us
 e must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalLeader
City: Moscow
Geographic Code: GEO,RUS,USA
Geographic Name: Georgia,Russia,United States,Eurasia,Americas,Caucasus,North Americas,EUROPE,RUSSIA,USSR,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Eurasia,Americas






-------------------- Wednesday July 15, 2009 T00:26:48Z --------------------
Title: Article by Boris Makarenko, chairman of the governing board of the Center for Political Technologies, under the rubric "View": "The View Following Obama"
Journal: Politkom.ru
Text:
But even so this visit showed that the era of "zero sums" in relations between Russia and the United States -- when everything that is advantageous for the United States seems disadvantageous for Russia, and vice versa -- is disappearing into the past, simply because for both sides there is more harm from it than benefit.  But it will take a long time to disappear, and the reason for that is not only that the objective disagreements and rivalry between the two major nuclear powers remain significant.  The summit meeting in Moscow did not resolve even one of the disagreements, although the hope, change in spirit, and progress achieved in many areas are being noticed even by ill-wishers.  There are also at least two factors, one objective and the other subjective, that will hang like heavy weights on the legs of the Russian and American politicians.The objective factor is the interdependence of foreign and domestic policy.  The leaders of both countries are not free of their ow
 n internal "alignments" and public opinion, although this dependence is in fact manifested differently.  For Obama Russia is merely a somewhat significant symbol.  He cannot forget the reputation created in the United States and in the West overall for the former Russian president (for example, what letters can be read in his eyes), who in the West is still considered the most influential politician in Russia.  He cannot make himself vulnerable to accusations of disregarding the topics of democracy and human rights, Russia's cooperation with Iran and other extremely questionable regimes, and many other topics.  That is why Obama played the classic two-move combination -- on the eve of his visit, he accused Putin of having one foot in the past, understanding very well that at the forthcoming personal meeting, he and the Russian leader by the logic of events would all the same emphasize the positive.  But the significance of this objective factor for the United States must not
  be exaggerated -- Russia is not the focal point where all the priorities of American foreign policy come together, but simply a large country that a great deal in the agenda being updated depends upon -- stronger multilateral regimes of cooperation, Afghanistan, and nonproliferation (which includes Iran and North Korea) plus, needless to say, control over nuclear arms.  The unilateralism and adventurism of Bush's team underestimated Russia's importance, and moreover, aggravated the situation with questionable priorities that in Russia could not be considered anything but anti-Russian -- the creation of irreversibility in deploying the missile defense new positioning region and the admission of Ukraine and Georgia to NATO as quickly as possible.  If Obama moves away from these priorities and aspires to make concrete agreements in those areas where the United States really needs Russia's cooperation, all he has to do to make certain he is not vulnerable to criticism is carry 
 out a few public maneuvers.It is more difficult for Russia -- for it anti-Americanism has become a kind of starting point for the world's perception of it as a great power, and the image of the enemy is an important mobilization mechanism.  And this mechanism is not only ideological but political as well: the particular decisions, including in economic and energy policy, are openly or implicitly based on it, just as are the mechanisms for marginalizing liberal political trends.  In addition, let us not forget that the mechanisms for manipulating public opinion in Russia are excessively straightforward.  Right before and especially right after Obama's visit, the state television channels as if on command (although why say "as if"?  Obviously it was indeed on command) lowered the anti-American rhetoric.  For example, it became clear (from the weekly summary program on Channel One) that the Americans and their allies are fighting a common enemy in Afghanistan -- terrorism.  But
  were they fighting someone else there six months ago, then?  Why didn't our television channels talk about that?  Turning off the anti-American propaganda is undoubtedly a positive fact, only the thought continues to bother me -- if turning it off is so easy, is turning it back on no more difficult if that seems useful to someone?That is in fact the source of the significance of the second -- subjective -- obstacle.  The confrontation inherited from times long past and revived in recent years is nourished by stereotypes of thinking by both society overall and the government expert establishment.  That is especially notable in the commentaries made by our experts on the agreements reached on strategic offensive arms.  They emphasize the ways that the Americans are obtaining the advantage and what we are not managing to get, including a concrete link between the offensive nuclear triad and the missile defense systems, and draw conclusions that are unflattering to the Russian 
 side.  I hope that they too understand that for Russia (just as for the United States) the existence of binding agreements in this area is better than their absence and more important than their particular parameters.  Under the same logic, the United States is getting more because it has more potential for supplementary arming and rearmament -- Moscow is the one that needs the treaty more -- without it the Americans could realize any supplementary armament programs ignoring Russia.  We could too, but we have fewer resources to do so.  But even this argument was born of the Cold War and the doctrine of mutual guaranteed destruction.  But the times have changed, and it was not just yesterday that they changed -- it is simply that we and the Americans have not had practice conducting negotiations on updating the control regime over nuclear arms for a long time.  We -- both in Russia and in the United States -- rule out (in any case on the level of official doctrines) the possi
 bility of war between our countries.  But our (and their) politicians did not decide in that case what we should do with our nuclear potentials and what should be considered nuclear parity, and the experts offered no suggestions.  Inertia in thinking makes the process of calibrating the new "yardsticks" that measure the results of negotiations at the top level more difficult.But even so I will venture to call the main positive outcome of the summit meeting the planned departure from the rules of the zero-sum game.  The first, already mentioned example is cooperation on Afghanistan.  The second is the Americans' adjustment of their agenda.  The Americans are willing to accept Ukraine and Georgia only on specific conditions (including after an unequivocal expression of support by the population, which we have been fighting so long to get) and Georgia got an actual rebuke for unleashing the Caucasus war.  The intention to conduct a "nuclear summit meeting" demands that America 
 return to the ratification of the so-called "1-2-3 Agreements," which Bush recalled from Congress under the "zero-sum" logic, punishing Russia for Georgia.  Let us add to this the Medvedev-Obama commission that has been formed, the negotiations on strategic offensive arms that are picking up speed, the renewed dialogue of the civil societies, and the hope (no more than that but no less either) that the Americans will "assess" the prospects of missile defense in Poland and the Czech Republic and manage to "untangle" this knot.All this is more than enough to consider the summit meeting that took place successful.  Soberly understanding that it provided more outlines and hopes than solutions of particular disagreements, let us mention the most important thing: success has been achieved not by declarations of a "reset" and not through the personal relations that are becoming established between the two presidents.  They are also important, but let us recall the public commentary
  by Medvedev about how candidly one could speak with Bush, Jr., and how little understanding came out of this candidness.The most fundamental thing is that our countries are trying to find areas of their common interests and put the work in these areas on a long-term institutional basis.(Description of Source: Moscow Politkom.ru in Russian -- Website created by the independent Political Technologies Center featuring insightful political commentary that is sometimes critical of the government; URL: http://politcom.ru/)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalLeaderProliferationTechnology,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Moscow
Geographic Code: RUS,USA
Geographic Name: Russia,United States,Eurasia,Americas,North Americas,NORTH AMERICA,WESTERN ASIA,USA,RUSSIA,USSR,AMERICAS,ASIA,AFGHANISTAN,EUROPE,UKRAINE,EASTERN EUROPE,CISIP
Region: Eurasia,Americas






-------------------- Thursday June 11, 2009 T11:17:56Z --------------------
Title: Abkhazia's Foreign Policy Acquires New Forms - Bagapsh
Journal: ITAR-TASS
Text:
intervention)SUKHUM, June 11 (Itar-Tass) - Abkhazia's foreign policy "acquired new forms" after Russia and Nicaragua recognised the independence of the republic, Abkhazian President Sergei Bagapsh said.In his annual address to the parliament on Thursday, Bagapsh said, "Today we're openly holding talks with other countries on Abkhazia's political recognition."At the same time, the Abkhazian president regretted that certain countries' position on the recognition of the independence "is hostile. Several European and U.S. high-ranking officials are putting open pressure on the countries, which want to recognise Abkhazia, and threaten them to impose sanctions and political isolation".According to Bagapsh, "the process of general political recognition of our state won't be so easy. In the future we'll have to concentrate efforts aimed at searching for and establishing mutually advantageous political and economic contacts with the leadership and structures of the countries, which sh
 are Abkhazia's drive for sovereignty."In his words, "the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Abkhazia laid the foundation of long-term good-neighbourly relations and strategic partnership between our countries." The Treaty "makes it possible to coordinate joint actions in order to meet common interests in such areas as security, economic cooperation and others", the Abkhazian president said."The Abkhazian Foreign Ministry is working on signing inter-governmental and inter-departmental agreements and treaties between the Republic of Abkhazia and the Russian Federation that is one more step towards improving and strengthening constructive and mutually beneficial relations," Bagapsh said.According to the Abkhazian president, "the Russian Federation and the Republic of Abkhazia continue to step up interstate relations and try to reach a new level in bilateral cooperation." "We also coordinate our actions on t
 he international arena, in particular in the U.N. and its Security Council. The Russian Federation's delegation in the U.N. continues its active efforts to facilitate an Abkhazian representative's participation in the Security Council session, but the United States prevents Abkhazia's involvement in this session," he said."We continue to step up active contacts with Latin American countries for whom Nicaragua's recognition of the independence of Abkhazia could be an impetus to further actions," Bagapsh said.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalLeader,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Moscow
Geographic Code: RUS,GEO,NIC,USA
Geographic Name: Russia,Georgia,Nicaragua,United States,Eurasia,Americas,Caucasus,Central Americas,North Americas,NORTH AMERICA,CENTRAL AMERICA,USA,RUSSIA,USSR,AMERICAS,GEORGIA,EUROPE,NICARAGUA,LATIN AMERICA,EASTERN EUROPE,CISIP
Region: Eurasia,Americas






-------------------- Thursday June 11, 2009 T11:45:42Z --------------------
Title: For a video of this program, contact GSG_GVP_VideoOps@rccb.osis.gov or, if you do not have e-mail, the OSC Customer Center at (800) 205-8615. Words within double slant lines are in English. Part two of "Pashtun Jirga," a special program on Geo News TV discussing nature of current insurrection in Pashtun areas of Pakistan with Pashtun leaders and analysts
Journal: Geo News TV
Text:
Reception: GoodDuration: 1 hourKarachi Geo News in Urdu at 1705 GMT on 05 June relays a special program, "Pashtun Jirga," hosted by Saleem Safi, a Peshawar-based senior journalist. The program discusses the causes and solutions to militancy and terrorism in Pakistan with guests.Participants of the program include Maulana Fazlur Rehman, chairman, Jamiat-Ulema-e-Islam and MNA (member National Assembly) and member of parliamentary committee on Kashmir; Senator Muhammad Adeel, senior vice president of ANP (Awami National Party); Farhatullah Babar, an //analyst// and spokesman of President Asif Zardari; Pirzada Noorul Haq Qadri, a federal minister and MNA from Khyber Agency; Mahmood Khan Achakzai, chairman, Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party; Aftab Ahmed Khan Sherpao, former interior minister and chairman, Pakistan People's Party-Sherpao; Muhammad Afzal Khan Lala, a senior leader of ANP representing Swat and Malakand; and Iqbal Zafar Jhagra, general secretary of Pakistan Muslim League-
 Nawaz.Independent Analysts include Brigadier Mahmood Shah, former //secretary security// FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas) in Peshawar, and Dr Muhammad Farooq Khan, a renowned religious //scholar//.Safi begins the program saying: "We have gathered again in Pashtun Jirga to discuss the question of the second round, which is: What is the nature of the current uprising in Malakand and FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Area)? Is this a battle between Islam and infidelity, or it is aimed at establishing the rule of Shari'ah in the country? Is it a battle among different classes of society, or a proxy war among global and regional powers?"Safi to Rehman: "Which do you think might be the closest possibility?" Rehman: "The main reason is the US occupation of Afghanistan. To contain the situation we had emphasized on holding talks with them (the militants) when the //operation// was about to begin in South Waziristan in 2003, because we knew if the bloody operation would b
 egin, it would be difficult to return to the talks. When the operation began, the situation started deteriorating in Swat and tribal areas, and instead of fighting on the Afghan soil, they started killing people here. Though it looked as if it was a centralized movement, in fact, the motive of these terrorist activities was quite disparate at the local level. The involvement of local elements afterward distorted the overall scenario. Anyway, the main cause of the tumultuous situation is the involvement of the United States in the region."Safi to Achakzai: "What is your opinion?" Achakzai: "No one of us can go inside the tribal area. If we dare, the //political agent// will question the purpose of our visit. If we cannot enter the tribal area, how have these militants come? Do you think there is a hidden hand enabling these militants to enter Pakistan, and we are helpless? This might be by design and aimed at putting resistance against the United States using guerilla tactics
  in the difficult mountainous terrain. I am afraid this situation is going to produce dire consequences for Pakistan as well as the entire region. Our people have the guts to teach a lesson to those who are responsible for this turmoil. They will hunt them down and hand them over to the government. Our intelligence agencies and Army should distant themselves from this dirty game, and the provinces should to be given their due rights. But to secure the //sovereignty// of Pakistan, we should respect the sovereignty of other countries too."Safi to Adeel: "What do you think about this situation?" Adeel: "When the United States attacked Afghanistan, these militants found refuge in the tribal areas of Pakistan. They first established themselves in Waziristan and then Swat. We wonder from where does the ammunition to the Swat Taliban come. Our //agencies// had been involved in giving them the weapons, and they always got //support// from our agencies. We give our soldiers only 6,00
 0 rupees (PRe) ($75) salary (per month). They give PRe 20,000 ($250) along with modern equipment. Where does that money come from? Their //communication system// is more advanced than that of ours. The Army has got to prove that it has finally parted ways with the Taliban, and I think it has been proving it for the last one month."Safi to Sherpao: "What is your opinion about this?" Sherpao: "The genesis of the present problem traces itself back to the faulty civilian setup that tried to accommodate both Mojaddedi and Borhanoddin as presidents of Afghanistan for the next six and two years, respectively. The different groups of militants had no harmony among themselves. Kabul owes its devastation to these Afghan militants more than the Soviet forces. That anarchy afterward provided the opportunity for the Taliban to emerge in Afghanistan and to be perceived as //saviors// of the Afghan people, who were desperate to get rid of the brutal //warlords//. The Taliban government was
  recognized by only three countries, that is, Pakistan, UAE, and Saudi Arabia. If the international community had also recognized the Taliban and helped them form a //national government// in Afghanistan, the situation would have been different. After the arrival of the United States in Afghanistan, these militants moved into Pakistan. Pakistan made a mistake by sending its troops to FATA. They should have tried to negotiate through a //political agent// to save the situation from deteriorating further. A lot of other elements also got involved themselves in this war between the Taliban and security forces."Safi to Babar: "Your opinion please." Babar: "These Taliban were notoriously famous for their despicable behavior with regard to women or other norms of society, even before the arrival of the United States. For example, the Taliban had punished the Pakistani soccer team players by shaving their heads because they were wearing //shorts//. They have also killed 4,800 innoc
 ent Pakistanis so far. They pretend as if their armed movement is truly against the United States, but this is not true. The people of Swat, Malakand, and other areas of NWFP (North-West Frontier Province) had rejected these religious parties in the last general election, indicating that they were not at all interested in radical Islam. Similarly, less than 5 percent of the litigants in Swat have opted for Shari'ah-based judicial system, and the rest have opted for Pakistani system. The militants' claim of sincerity for Shari'ah is just baseless, and for them Shari'ah is no more than a slogan. The final inference is that //they want to capture political power through the use of bullet and not ballot//."Safi to Lala: "What is your opinion?" Lala: "Unfortunately, we make decisions without proper homework, planning, and foresight. Before being a part of Pakistan, the areas of Swat, Dir, Malakand, and Chitral had their justice and political system. The old system used to be very
  speedy. When these areas //merged// with Pakistan, the government introduced its system by the name of FATA //regulation// in 1969. The Peshawar //High Court// as well as the //Supreme Court// of Pakistan rejected the new system, thus creating a vacuum. They (Swat) kept demanding Shari'ah for years. It was implemented first in 1994 and again with some amendments in 2009. So the current Nizam-e-Adl (Islamic justice system) //regulation// is the same as that of 1969."Safi to Qadri: "Now what do think?" Qadri: "The three decades of turmoil in Afghanistan could not disintegrate the country because of the strength of the Pashtun race, and they will continue their sacrifices and sincerity for Pakistan also. Pashtuns have been sincere with Pakistan throughout. Traditionally, Pashtuns have a tendency and affection with the religious way of life, but the current chaos in the region owes its existence to global powers and their conspiracies. The foreign media is trying to distort the
  true image of Islam and denounce it by showing horrible footages of the Taliban."Safi to Jhagra: "Your opinion please." Jhagra: "I agree with Lala that the people of Swat and Malakand have been genuinely demanding a justice system since 1969. But the prevailing chaos in Waziristan or Swat is the result of a conspiracy on a larger scale. We have been following a devastating //policy// since 9/11, which has the potential to expand this chaos to the //settled areas// as well. We should avoid taking //dictation// from others to solve our problems effectively, and it is time to think and decide //independently// about the solution."Safi to Qadri: "Who is the chief culprit behind this conspiracy?" Qadri: "The chief culprit, in my opinion, is the United States because it has vested interests in the region."Safi to Qadri: "Then, why are you a part of the government if you think that our government is allying with the United States?" Qadri: "The government represents the country. I 
 do not think that our government is working to secure the interests of the United States."Safi to Jhagra: "Why is your leadership talking of using force against the militants?" Jhagra: "Our //policy//, as a political party, has been very straight throughout. Nawaz Sharif has always said that we need to be self-sufficient and independent, only then we will be in a position to guard our national interests against international pressures."Safi to Jhagra: "Should you not support the Taliban for their US rivalry?" Jhagra: "We should be concerned about our //interests// in the first place."Safi to Lala: "Some people think that this conflict is a result of class difference in society and that the Taliban got support from the poor when they targeted rich people like local landlords." Lala: "This is rubbish. Have you ever heard or seen a //retired police constable// being slaughtered or schools being burned or women being proscribed from leaving their homes in a war resulting from cl
 ass differences. Similarly, they bombed barber shops, killed television actors, and destroyed as many as 200 schools, 14 hospitals, and 80 percent of the bridges in Swat. Let me also tell you there are no landlords in Swat."Safi to Babar: "If you think that Taliban's war is not against the United States, then why did they not act before the arrival of the United States?" Babar: "The United States may have an //agenda// in the region. I agree with Lala that the class difference is not the reason for this war, and the horrible antics of these militants were enough to prove this. These militants wanted to create panic in the area to impose their specific political //agenda// in the entire country."Safi to Achakzai: "You said that our intelligence agencies had supported these militants, then why are they targeting Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) offices now. A myth is that Pakistan has been playing a //double game//; however, the United States is also being accused of playing 
 a //double game// with regard to the elimination of the Taliban." Achakzai: "The United States has its vested interests, and its politics goes around its interests. We have to take care of our interests. We have our enemies from within. Our area, FATA, is also called //no man's land//, but on the contrary, no single piece of land is without an owner. The Army has to tell us who is responsible for bringing these dangerous militants into our area, killing our innocent and peace-loving tribes; otherwise, these tribes will start spying for the United States to take revenge for the blood of their beloved ones. I criticize the US //policies// regarding the Middle East or Iraq, but I will not believe you when you say Muslim countries are the special targets of the United States. Iran is governed well, and therefore, it leaves no room for the United States to attack, whereas, according to President Obama, FATA region is the epicenter of terrorism and a constant threat to the world, 
 in general, and the United States, in particular."Safi to Sherpao: "Do you believe that both Pakistan and the United States were playing //double games// with each other at a point in time?" Sherpao: "The United States itself cannot capture Al-Qa'ida terrorists; therefore, its onus is on Pakistan. As a result, the Pakistani forces are now at confrontation with these terrorists for the sake of the United States."Safi to Adeel: "Is your party, ANP (Awami National Party), supporting the Army operation or the //establishment//?" Adeel: "We have never been under the influence of the //establishment//, nor have we ever supported any //dictatorial// regime. This is a well-known fact that our establishment and intelligence agencies nurtured all these jihadist and terrorist elements during dictatorial regimes as a state policy. Unlike the past, the Army and intelligence //agencies// are now performing as per the will and need of the elected government, and there has been a visible ch
 ange in their attitude."Safi to Rehman: "The mainstream religious political parties like yours say that the Taliban movement is a commendable jihad against the United States. Then why don't you own it and physically join this jihad, or if you think this is all nonsense, then why don't you oppose it overtly?" Rehman: "The United States is a colonial power and is trying to subjugate poor nations. Being a US ally, we are indirectly pursuing a foreign //agenda//. We insist that the United States should hold talks with us to solve these problems."Safi: "It is time for our independent //analysts// to express their //opinion//. First analyst, Shah: "Al-Qa'ida intends to conquer Afghanistan, Pakistan, and //Central Asian// by force and then launch a larger war against the West. The people like Taliban are the //surrogates and foot soldiers// of Al-Qa'ida. The faltering //attitude// of our government with regard to this problem has landed us here. Pakistan's religious political parti
 es have been //facilitating// these terrorists for their vested interests, that is, acquisition of power in the NWFP. The recent horrible incidents have stimulated an impetus against these terrorists on //national// level. Both the nation and Army are heading in the same direction. And those who have been //supporting// these terrorists for vested interests will have to face the consequences."Second analyst, Dr Khan: "This monster of Talibanization owes its perpetuation to the United States as well as the different factions of society within Pakistan. It was General Ziaul Haque who, during his rule, had granted the "Peochar" (the stronghold of Fazlullah) Valley to the militants to be used as //training// camps. Our politicians need to come out of the action and reaction syndrome. Though the United States must like to see its continued influence in the region, but the notion that it wants to disintegrate Pakistan is baseless. A disintegrated Pakistan will not be in the favor 
 of the United States. It is time for our politicians and government to pay back and mend the prevailing situation, for which they themselves are responsible."(Description of Source: Karachi Geo News TV in Urdu -- 24-hour satellite news TV channel owned by Pakistan's Jang publishing group. Known for providing quick and detailed reports of events. Geo's focus on reports from India is seen as part of its policy of promoting people-to-people contact and friendly relations with India.)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalMilitaryTerrorism,LEGAL,GOVERNMENT,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,REGULATIONIP
City: Karachi
Geographic Code: PAK,AFG,RUS,USA
Geographic Name: Pakistan,Afghanistan,Russia,United States,Asia,Eurasia,Americas,South Asia,North Americas,WESTERN ASIA,AMERICAS,USA,AFGHANISTAN,INDIAN SUBCONTINENT,SOUTHERN ASIA,GULF STATES,INDIA,PAKISTAN,NORTH AMERICA,ASIA,MIDDLE EASTIP
Region: Asia,Eurasia,Americas






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T04:02:02Z --------------------
Title: Xinhua: "China, U.S. Should Improve Win-Win Cooperation: President Hu"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
BEIJING, May 24 (Xinhua) -- Chinese President Hu Jintao on Monday said China and the United States should develop a pattern of mutually beneficial and win-win cooperation.Addressing the opening ceremony of the second round of China-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue, Hu said China and the United States should step up macroeconomic policy coordination and promote sustained world economic recovery.He called on closer bilateral exchanges and cooperation in the areas including economy and trade, energy, environment, counter-terrorism, non-proliferation, law enforcement, science and technology, education, agriculture, health and quality inspection.He also urged the two countries to develop cooperation in new areas such as civil aviation, high-speed railway, infrastructure construction and space exploration."In this way, we will lend fresh impetus to the growth of China-U.S. relations and enable our peoples to reap tangible benefits from China-U.S. cooperation," he added.The two-
 day dialogue, which opened Monday in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, drew 50 representatives from more than 40 departments of both countries.The dialogue, designed to enhance mutual understanding and trust between China and the United States, will cover a host of topics, ranging from bilateral links to regional and global issues.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: EnergyLeaderDomestic PoliticalInternational Political
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T04:37:26Z --------------------
Title: Xinhua: "U.S.-China Economic Relationship Mutually Beneficial: Chinese Finance Minister"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
WASHINGTON, May 23 (Xinhua) -- The U.S.-China economic relationship is one of mutual benefits, and the common interests of the two sides are expanding, Chinese Finance Minister Xie Xuren said on Sunday ahead of the second round of the China-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&amp;ED)."The U.S.-China strategic and economic dialogue in Beijing this week will have a major bearing on the sustainable and healthy development of our economic relationship," Xie said in an article published by the Washington Post on Sunday.The two-day second round of S&amp;ED opened in Beijing on Monday morning.Xie said that since the United States and China established diplomatic relations, bilateral trade volume has grown nearly 120-fold. U.S. direct investment in China has topped 63.1 billion dollars, and China's direct investment in America has also grown rapidly, in tandem with indirect investment in Treasury bonds and other American assets.He noted that the American and Chinese peoples benefit and e
 ntrepreneurs in both countries benefit from the bilateral economic ties.But differences on some issues are unavoidable."China and the United States are in different stages of development and will be for a long time," he said.Over recent decades, the American industrial structure has been upgraded toward high-end manufacturing and modern services, while its traditional manufacturing industry has gradually shifted to other countries.Xie said that trade of the two sides are complementary to each other."If the United States can loosen its export controls on civilian high-tech products to China, its export competitiveness can be further improved. This would also help it balance trade with China," said the minister.He noted that "Today, the common interests of our countries are expanding," adding that space for new cooperation is open in the bilateral and global spheres in at least three ways.First, China and the United States must focus on global economic stability and recovery, 
 which is threatened by the European sovereign debt crisis.Second, both countries are transforming their economic development patterns. China is expanding domestic demand and pursuing scientific development.Third, China and the United States are key stakeholders in the establishment of an equitable, open and fair international economic order.During the second round of S&amp;ED, U.S. and China will exchange their views about promoting a strong recovery and more sustainable, balanced growth; promoting mutually beneficial trade and investment; financial market stability and reform; and reform of international financial architecture.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic EconomicDomestic PoliticalInternational EconomicInternational Political,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T04:12:09Z --------------------
Title: Updated version: adding Urgent tag; Xinhua: "China, U.S. Should Improve Win-Win Cooperation: President Hu"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: EnergyLeaderInternational PoliticalUrgent
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T04:18:13Z --------------------
Title: Updated version: adding Urgent tag; Xinhua: "China, U.S. Should Deepen Mutual Understanding And Friendship, Says Hu"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: LeaderDomestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalUrgent
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T04:12:10Z --------------------
Title: Xinhua: "China, U.S. Should Deepen Mutual Understanding And Friendship, Says Hu"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
BEIJING, May 24 (Xinhua) -- Chinese President Hu Jintao said here on Monday that China and the United States should deepen mutual understanding and friendship between peoples."This provides an enduring driving force and broad foundation for the growth of state-to-state relations," said Hu addressing the opening session of the second round of China-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue.China and the United States will establish a mechanism of people-to-people exchange, which the president believed "will contribute to the cultural, scientific, technological and educational exchanges and cooperation" between the two countries.He stressed the two countries should support youth exchanges so that the cause of China-U.S. relations will be carried forward by the younger generation.The two countries should also scale up exchanges and cooperation between the business, academic and media communities and between local authorities and institutions to build a broad bridge of friendship betw
 een the two peoples, said Hu.Under a consensus reached by Hu and U.S.President Barack Obama in London in last April, the two countries initiated the strategic and economic dialogue. The first diologue was held in Washington in July of that year.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: LeaderDomestic PoliticalInternational Political
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T04:08:07Z --------------------
Title: Updated version: adding Urgent tag and rewriting subject line; Xinhua: "Chinese President Calls for Close China-U.S. Interactions"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: LeaderInternational EconomicInternational PoliticalUrgent
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T04:22:14Z --------------------
Title: Updated version: adding Urgent tag; Xinhua: "President Hu Calls for Closer China-U.S. Coordination on Global Issues"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: EnergyEnvironmentLeaderInternational PoliticalUrgent,INTERNATIONAL ISSUESIP
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T03:52:27Z --------------------
Title: By reporter Xiong Zhengyan: "Preview of 'Hot Topics' Likely To Be Discussed at the Current China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue"
Journal: Xinhua Asia-Pacific Service
Text:
Behind the high attention China and the United States are paying to the strategic and economic dialogue is the scale of these two major economic entities and their economic interdependence. Now China and the United States are each other's second largest trade partners. China is the third largest exporting market of the United States, and the United States is the second largest exporting market of China. So far, the US direct investment in China has topped $59 billion. China has large amounts of bonds investment in the United States and is the main creditor country of the United States. From January to April this year, bilateral trade between China and the United States amounted to $107.18 billion, up by 25 percent. Public opinion generally believes that a high degree of economic interdependence has become ballast and the main propelling force for China-US relations. Hot Topic Two: Trade BalanceIn accordance with the "national export initiative" strategy proposed by the Obama 
 administration this year, the US export volume should increase twice as much and create 2 million jobs before 2015. Against the backdrop that the financial crisis has caused a decline in various countries' purchasing powers, China has no intention to become an important rival for the United States to expand its export.In China's opinion, a key factor that restricts the development of trade between the two countries is the US high-tech export controls to China. The United States, besides imposing export restrictions on China since the establishment of both sides' diplomatic ties, also placed China on a separate listing in 2007 for exercising export controls on 47 categories, including aircraft engines, causing Chinese customers to give up importing US products.During US Treasury Secretary Gary Locke's recent visit to China, Chinese Vice Minister of Commerce Ma Xiuhong reiterated that if the United States did not take substantial action to loosen its export controls to China, 
 this would affect China-US cooperation in clean energy and other fields. Gary Locke disclosed that the United States hoped to introduce a new export controls system this summer. Hot Topic Three: Cooperation in New EnergyAs an "advance team" for the second round of China-US strategic and economic dialogue, the huge clean energy delegation headed by Gary Locke started to visit China on 16 May. As a cabinet-level trade delegation sent by the Obama administration, the 24 clean energy enterprises in the delegation represent the highest level of the United States in the fields of clean energy, electricity generation, energy efficiency, and electric energy storage. This shows that the United States hopes to occupy the fastest growing China's clean energy market.China and the United States are large energy producing and consuming countries in the world. China is actively carrying out clean energy development whereas the United States possesses the relevant technology and experience.
  Both sides have a broad prospect for cooperation. Hot Topic Four: Europe's Sovereignty Debt CrisisOne of the backdrops for the current China-US strategic and economic dialogue is that the world economy is at a crucial point of facing the challenges of Europe's debt crisis. Europe's debt crisis has posed a challenge to the stability of the global financial market and caused pressure on the global economic recovery. The United States, as the first largest economic entity in the world, and China, as the third largest economic entity, should, of course, strengthen macroeconomic policy coordination.Chinese Assistant Minister of Finance Zhu Guangyao said that the current dialogue will appraise the latest development of the world economic situation, particularly Europe's sovereignty debt crisis and its impact on the world economy, so as to urge the implementation of a sustainable financial policy, exercise good management over inflation forecast, and push forward the structural ad
 justment. Hot Topic Five: Financial SupervisionThe global financial crisis, which stemmed in Western countries, where financial supervision is not good, has allowed various countries in the world to bring home the lessons painfully learned, and make up their minds to revamp and reconstruct their financial supervisory system.This topic will continue to be discussed at the current dialogue. The Chinese and US sides will also exchange views on the progress of financial supervisory reform, financial departments' development, strengthening bilateral and multilateral coordination, and financial departments' role in pushing forward balanced economic development.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua Asia-Pacific Service in Chinese -- China's official news service (New China News Agency) to the Asia-Pacific region, established to replace Xinhua Hong Kong Service. The new service includes material previously carried by Xinhua Hong Kong Service and additional material specific to the 
 Asia-Pacific region)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International EconomicInternational Political,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T03:40:52Z --------------------
Title: Xinhua: "2nd Ld Writethru: S. Korea To Hold Military Drills Following Sinking of Warship"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
2nd Ld Writethru: S. Korea to hold military drills following sinking of warshipSEOUL, May 24 (Xinhua) -- The South Korean government said Monday it will hold military drills aimed at deterring further aggression of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and put on hold all exchanges and trade with Pyongyang.The statements made by defense, foreign and unification ministers came in response to the recent sinking of its warship by DPRK's alleged torpedo attack.A few hours earlier, President Lee Myung-bak said his country will resort to measures of self-defense in case of further military provocation of Pyongyang over its sinking of a South Korean warship in late March, which killed 46 sailors near disputed maritime border between the two Koreas.Seoul is planning to hold anti-submarine drills with the United States off the west coast of the Korean peninsula, the scene of the naval tragedy, and to hold military exercises aimed at deterring proliferation of Pyongyang's weapons o
 f mass destruction, defense minister Kim Tae-young said in a joint briefing.The country will no longer allow DPRK-flagged vessels in the South's territorial waters and forcibly return them in case ships do not comply with the measure, while it immediately resumes anti- Pyongyang propaganda activities, Kim added.Seoul's top diplomat Yu Myung-hwan said Seoul and its ally, Washington, will discuss at the bilateral level punitive sanctions on the DPRK, while the government seeks cooperation with regional powers including China and Russia.The country will participate more actively in the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), a multinational initiative aimed at deterring proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.South Korea will no longer allow its nationals to travel to the DPRK and ban further investment in the northern neighbor, unification minister Hyun In-taek said. The country will sever the flow of aid to the DPRK except humanitarian assistance, he said.(Description o
 f Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Military,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRSIP
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,RUS,KOR,USA
Geographic Name: China,Russia,South Korea,United States,Asia,Eurasia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,SOUTH KOREA,NORTH KOREAIP
Region: Asia,Eurasia,Americas






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T03:51:57Z --------------------
Title: Updated version: adding Urgent tag; Xinhua: "Geithner Highlights Common Interests in China, U.S. Cooperation, Citing Chinese"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International EconomicLeaderInternational PoliticalUrgent,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTIP
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T03:51:57Z --------------------
Title: Xinhua: "Chinese President Calls for Close China-U.S. Interactions"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
BEIJING, May 24 (Xinhua) -- China and the United States should maintain close interactions at the top and other levels for full communication, Chinese President Hu Jintao said here on Monday while addressing the opening session of the China-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue.He said that full communication is an important basis for enhanced cooperation, and not even the most sophisticated telecommunication technology can replace face-to-face exchanges."In my meeting with President Obama in Washington on April 12 this year, we both agreed to stay in close touch through meetings, phone calls and correspondence," said Hu."We should also step up strategic dialogues and consultations to deepen understanding, expand common ground and promote cooperation," he added.About 50 representatives from more than 40 departments of the two countries countries participated in the second round of the China-U.S. dialogue held in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.The first round of the di
 alogue was held in Washington in July last year.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: LeaderDomestic PoliticalInternational EconomicInternational Political
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T03:45:54Z --------------------
Title: By People's Daily Online: "Sino-US talks focus on economy, Pyongyang"
Journal: Renmin Ribao
Text:
(Description of Source: Beijing People's Daily Online in English -- Internet-only English version of Renmin Ribao, the daily newspaper of the CPC Central Committee. URL: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International EconomicInternational PoliticalUrgent,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT,FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,PRK,KOR,USA
Geographic Name: China,North Korea,South Korea,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,SOUTH KOREA,NORTH KOREAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T03:40:52Z --------------------
Title: Xinhua: "China, U.S. Should Respect Each Other's Core Interests, Major Concerns: President"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
HuBEIJING, May 24 (Xinhua) -- Chinese president Hu Jintao said Monday China and the United States should respect each other's core interests and major concerns at the ongoing bilateral talks in Beijing.He said sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity were a country's most basic rights recognized by the norms governing international relations."To the Chinese people, nothing is more important than safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity," Hu said in a speech to the opening session of the second round of China-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue."I trust it is not difficult for the American people, who went through the American Civil War in their history, to understand how important and valuable unity was to a nation," he said.The two-day dialogue was a mechanism designed to enhance mutual understanding and trust between China and the United States. The first round of the China-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue was held in Washington in July la
 st year.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: LeaderDomestic PoliticalInternational EconomicInternational Political
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T03:40:52Z --------------------
Title: Xinhua: "China,U.S. Should Respect Each Other's Right To Choose Development Path: Chinese"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
PresidentBEIJING, May 24 (Xinhua) -- Chinese President Hu Jintao said here on Monday that both China and the United States should respect the right of each and every country to independently choose its development path."We should recognize differences in countries' cultural traditions, social systems, values and development concepts, and encourage different civilizations and development models to learn from and reinforce one another so as to achieve common development," said Hu."It is not advisable to use one model to measure the diverse and colorful world we live in," Hu said while addressing the opening session of China-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue.About 50 representatives from more than 40 departments of both countries participated in the second round of the China-U.S. dialogue, held in the Great Hall of the People.The first round of the dialogue was held in Washington in July last year.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news serv
 ice for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: LeaderDomestic PoliticalInternational Political
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T03:40:52Z --------------------
Title: Xinhua: "Geithner Highlightes Common Interests in China, U.S. Cooperation, Citing Chinese"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
idiomBEIJING, May 24 (Xinhua) -- Quoting a Chinese idiom, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Monday the United States and China are "in the same storm-tossed boat" and should meet common challenges together."When we approach our relationship in the spirit of mutual respect and cooperation, with determination at the highest levels to overcome our differences, we will have great success - from leading the global to conquer the financial crisis, to forging a global accord on climate in Copenhagen, to charting a common response to the challenge to international security," said Geithner.While addressing the opening ceremony of the second round of the China-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&amp;ED) on Monday at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, he said both countries, sharing important interests and responsibilities, have worked hard to build a stronger relationship since the last S&amp;ED first convened in Washington D.C. last July.Geithner also highlighted such
  words as "common interests", which ran through his remarks.He said both the United States and China could find a wide range of common interests in building a stronger and more resilient world economy for more balanced growth, a more stable financial system less prone to crisis as well as a more open global trading system with fair balance of benefits and responsibilities.He added the common interests between the two countries could also be found in structuring a stronger global framework for cooperation, in the Group of 20 and in the international financial institutions.Geithner, along with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, as representatives of U.S. President Barack Obama, will co-chair the second round of S&amp;ED from May 24 to 25 with Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan and State Councilor Dai Bingguo, representatives of Chinese President Hu Jintao.The annual S&amp;ED mechanism, which succeeded from China-U.S. Strategic Dialogue and China-U.S. Strategic Economic Dialogue, h
 as been designed to enhance mutual understanding and trust between the two sides and will cover a host of topics, ranging from bilateral links to regional and global issues.The very mechanism was decided on April 1, 2009 by President Hu and President Obama during their meeting on the sidelines of the G20 financial summit in London.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International EconomicDomestic PoliticalLeaderInternational Political,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTIP
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T03:35:50Z --------------------
Title: Xinhua: "Chinese President Stresses Right Direction of China-U.S. Relations"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
BEIJING, May 24 (Xinhua) -- Chinese president Hu Jintao stressed Monday China and the United States need to stick to the right direction of bilateral relations."No matter how the international situation may evolve and what difficulties and interferences we may encounter, we should always follow a strategic and long-term perspective and stick to and safeguard the goal of working together to build a positive, cooperative and comprehensive China-U.S. relationship for the 21st century," Hu said."We should foster strategic mutual trust, strengthen strategic cooperation, appropriately handle differences and step up communication, coordination and cooperation on bilateral, regional and global issues," Hu said in a speech delivered Monday to the opening session of the second round of China-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue held in Beijing.The dialogue was a mechanism designed to enhance mutual understanding and trust between China and the United States. The first round of the Chin
 a-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue was held in Washington in July last year.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: LeaderDomestic PoliticalInternational Political,INTERNATIONAL ISSUESIP
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T03:35:49Z --------------------
Title: Article by Dr. Jin Liangxiang, columnist with China.org.cn: "Sanctions will complicate Iran nuclear issue"
Journal: Zhongguo Wang
Text:
(Description of Source: Beijing Zhongguo Wang in English --Official PRC portal site, hosted by the China Internet Information Center, under the auspices of the China International Publishing Group and the State Council Information Office. URL: http://www.china.org.cn/English/)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalProliferation,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONSIP
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: BRA,CHN,IRN,TUR,USA
Geographic Name: Brazil,China,Iran,Turkey,United States,Americas,Asia,Middle East,Europe,South Americas,North Americas,East Asia,South Europe,MEDITERRANEAN,CHINA,WESTERN ASIA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,BRAZIL,AMERICAS,ASIA,SOUTH AMERICA,MIDDLE EAST,GULF STATES,IRAN,LATIN AMERICAIP
Region: Americas,Asia,Middle East,Europe






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T03:35:48Z --------------------
Title: Updated version: adding Urgent tag; Xinhua: "Chinese President Reaffirms Importance of China-U.S. Ties"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: LeaderInternational EconomicInternational PoliticalUrgent
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T03:35:49Z --------------------
Title: Xinhua: "1st LD Writethru: S. Korea To Hold Military Drills Following Sinking of Its Warship"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
SEOUL, May 24 (Xinhua) -- Responding to the recent sinking of its warship by the alleged Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK)'s torpedo attack, the South Korean government said Monday it will hold military drills aimed at deterring further aggression of Pyongyang and put all exchanges and trade with the northern rival.Seoul is planning to hold anti-submarine drills with the United States off the west coast of the Korean peninsula, the scene of the naval tragedy in late March that killed 46 South Korean sailors, and to hold military exercises aimed at deterring proliferation of Pyongyang's weapons of mass destruction, defense minister Kim Tae-young said in a joint briefing with foreign and unification ministers.The country will no longer allow DPRK-flagged vessels in the South's territorial waters and forcibly return them in case ships do not comply with the measure, while it immediately resumes anti- Pyongyang propaganda activities, Kim added.(Description of Source: B
 eijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: MilitaryInternational Political,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRSIP
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: KOR,USA
Geographic Name: South Korea,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,SOUTH KOREA,NORTH KOREAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T03:51:57Z --------------------
Title: Updated version: adding Urgent tag and cross-refs; Xinhua: "China, U.S. Should Respect Each Other's Core Interests, Major Concerns: President"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: LeaderInternational EconomicInternational PoliticalUrgent
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T03:24:42Z --------------------
Title: Xinhua: "Chinese President Reaffirms Importance of China-U.S. Ties"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
BEIJING, May 24 (Xinhua) -- Chinese President Hu Jintao on Monday reaffirmed the importance of developing China-U.S. relations, saying that a sound bilateral ties contributes to peace, stability and prosperity in the Asia Pacific region and the world."As permanent members of the UN Security Council, the largest developing country and the largest developed country, China and the United States face common tasks and shoulder important responsibilities ranging from promoting full recovery and sustainable growth of the world economy to managing regional hot-spots, meeting global challenges and safeguarding world peace and security," said Hu.Addressing the opening ceremony of the second China-U.S. strategic and economic dialogue, he said the world is in the midst of major developments, changes and adjustments.The trend toward a multi-polar world and economic globalization is gathering momentum, he said, adding global issues are becoming more pronounced, and regional and internation
 al hot-spot issues keep cropping up."To further advance mankind's noble cause of peace and development requires greater cooperation among people of all countries," the president added."China attaches great importance to its relations with the United States," he said, adding that to develop a long-term, sound and steady bilateral relationship meets the shared desire of the two peoples and contributes to peace, stability and prosperity in the Asia Pacific region and beyond.Stressing common tasks, President Hu said it is natural the two countries may disagree on some issues due to different national conditions."What is important is to respect and accommodate each other's core interests and major concerns, appropriately handle the sensitive issues and strengthen the foundation of mutual trust," said Hu.About 50 representatives from more than 40 departments of both countries participated in the dialogue opened Monday in Beijing.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English --
  China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: LeaderDomestic PoliticalInternational EconomicInternational Political
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T03:26:43Z --------------------
Title: Updated version: upgrading precedence, revising headline, adjusting tags and adding referent items; Yonhap headline: "S. Korean FM Pledges All-out Diplomatic Campaign to Punish North Korea"
Journal: Yonhap
Text:
(Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalLeaderUrgent,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Seoul
Geographic Code: PRK,KOR,USA,CHN,RUS
Geographic Name: North Korea,South Korea,United States,China,Russia,Asia,Americas,Eurasia,East Asia,North Americas,SOUTH KOREA,NORTH KOREA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas,Eurasia






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T03:18:39Z --------------------
Title: Xinhua: "China, U.S. Start Economic Track of Annual High-Level Talks"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International EconomicInternational PoliticalUrgent
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T03:45:54Z --------------------
Title: Updated version: adding Urgent tag; Xinhua: "Chinese President Stresses Right Direction of China-U.S. Relations"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: LeaderDomestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalUrgent,INTERNATIONAL ISSUESIP
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T03:45:54Z --------------------
Title: Updated version: adding Urgent tag and cross-refs; Xinhua: "China,U.S. Should Respect Each Other's Right To Choose Development Path: Chinese"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: LeaderDomestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalUrgent
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T03:18:39Z --------------------
Title: Updated version: adding Urgent and additional tags; Xinhua: "China, U.S. Start Strategic Track of Annual High-Level Talks"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International EconomicInternational PoliticalLeaderUrgent,INTERNATIONAL ISSUESIP
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T02:46:15Z --------------------
Title: Report by Deng Youbiao: "Story of Excellent Midshipman Ren Xiaohang"; headline as provided by source
Journal: Jiefangjun Bao Online
Text:
(Description of Source: Beijing Jiefangjun Bao Online in English -- Website of online English version of newspaper of the Central Military Commission of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), reporting on a wide range of military affairs; URL: http://english.pladaily.com.cn)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalMilitary
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: BRA,CHN,FRA,DEU,JPN,PRT,SGP,KOR,GBR,USA
Geographic Name: Brazil,China,France,Germany,Japan,Portugal,Singapore,South Korea,United Kingdom,United States,Americas,Asia,Europe,South Americas,North Americas,East Asia,South East Asia,South Europe,North Europe,MEDITERRANEAN,EUROPE,CHINA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIAIP
Region: Americas,Asia,Europe






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T02:10:56Z --------------------
Title: AFP: PRC State Councillor Dai Bingguo at SED Says PRC, US Economies 'Inseparable'
Journal: AFP
Text:
(Description of Source: Hong Kong AFP in English -- Hong Kong service of the independent French press agency Agence France-Presse)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: LeaderMilitaryInternational EconomicInternational PoliticalUrgent,INTERNATIONAL ISSUESIP
City: Hong Kong
Geographic Code: CHN,HKG,IRN,PRK,KOR,TWN,USA
Geographic Name: China,Hong Kong,Iran,North Korea,South Korea,Taiwan,United States,Asia,Middle East,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,SOUTH KOREA,NORTH KOREA,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,HONG KONG,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T01:36:39Z --------------------
Title: Xinhua: "China-U.S. Strategic And Economic Dialogue Opens in Beijing"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
BEIJING, May 24 (Xinhua) -- The second round of China-U.S. strategic and economic dialogue opened Monday at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.Chinese President Hu Jintao's special representatives, Vice Premier Wang Qishan and State Councilor Dai Bingguo, co-chaired the two-day meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama's special representatives, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.About 50 representatives from more than 40 departments of both countries participated in the dialogue.The dialogue, designed to enhance mutual understanding and trust between China and the United States, will cover a host of topics, ranging from bilateral links to regional and global issues.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copy
 right holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalLeaderInternational Political
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T01:24:27Z --------------------
Title: Updated version: Adding United States tag; Yonhap headline: "N. Korea Likely to Further Provoke S. Korea Ahead of G-20 Summit: Scholar" by Hwang Doo-hyong
Journal: Yonhap
Text:
(Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: LeaderProliferationEnergyInternational PoliticalInternational Economic,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONSIP
City: Seoul
Geographic Code: KOR,PRK,USA
Geographic Name: South Korea,North Korea,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,SOUTH KOREA,NORTH KOREA,G7IP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T01:24:27Z --------------------
Title: "Viewpoint" column by Nam Joo-hong, the ambassador on International Security Affairs and Translation by the JoongAng Daily staff: "Our crisis has only just begun"
Journal: JoongAng Daily Online
Text:
(Description of Source: Seoul JoongAng Daily Online in English -- Website of English-language daily which provides English-language summaries and full-texts of items published by the major center-right daily JoongAng Ilbo, as well as unique reportage; distributed as an insert to the Seoul edition of the International Herald Tribune; URL: http://joongangdaily.joins.com)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: LeaderMilitaryInternational EconomicInternational Political
City: Seoul
Geographic Code: KOR,PRK,USA,CHN
Geographic Name: South Korea,North Korea,United States,China,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,SOUTH KOREA,NORTH KOREA,CHINA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T01:42:41Z --------------------
Title: Updated version: adding Urgent tag; Xinhua: "China-U.S. Strategic And Economic Dialogue Opens in Beijing"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: LeaderInternational PoliticalUrgent
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T01:26:30Z --------------------
Title: "A Farewell To Nuclear Arms?" -- The Daily Star Headline
Journal: The Daily Star Online
Text:
Monday, May 24, 2010As the recent United Nations and Washington summits have demonstrated,nuclear arms control and disarmament are among the top issues on theworld-s political agenda. They are likely to remain so for theforeseeable future. Indeed, 2010 will determine whether US President BarackObama-s vision of a nuclear-free world will remain a distant butachievable hope, or must be abandoned.No one should be under any illusions. Even if all of the world-snuclear-weapon states embrace the vision of a world free of the threat ofnuclear conflict, nuclear weapons will remain with us for two decades at least,and even that would require the most favorable conditions for disarmament.This year is crucially important. The agreement signed in early April in Praguebetween Russia and the United States on the reduction of strategic nuclearweapons and possibly on further cuts was accompanied by the publication of theUS Nuclear Posture Review, identifying the nuclear capabilities thatObam
 a-s administration wishes to preserve for the next four years. Thenuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) review conference has begun the work ofadapting the NPT to our rapidly changing world. Many policymakers hope that2010 will bring clarity on the North Korean and Iranian nuclear programs.There are roughly 23,000 nuclear weapons today, which is 40,000 fewer than atthe height of the Cold War. These weapons- total yield is greater than150,000 Hiroshima-size nuclear explosions. Nuclear disarmament is thereforestill urgently needed, and prominent politicians in the United States andGermany have produced the US-led Global Zero initiative and created theInternational Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament (ICNND),sponsored by Australia and Japan and co-chaired by former Foreign MinistersYoriko Kawaguchi and Gareth Evans.The US, Russia, France, the United Kingdom and China - all NPTsignatories - possess nine-tenths of the world-s nuclear weapons,while India, Paki
 stan, and probably Israel possess around 1,000. North Koreapresumably has a few, and Iran is most likely pursuing a nuclear-weaponsprogram. Obama and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev have agreed to reducetheir strategic arsenals to 1,550 weapons each - far more than the 1,000that Obama had in mind, but nonetheless a huge step that could bring aboutfurther cuts.But the road to global nuclear disarmament will be long and bumpy. To beginwith, the capacity to dismantle and destroy nuclear warheads is limited, andlikely to remain so. Current capacity is roughly 500 weapons annually in bothRussia and the US, which means the total of 2,000 weapons each that the ICNNDReport suggests for the year 2025 cannot be fully implemented much before 2028.Then, there is the risk that other countries, particularly in the Middle East,will follow the example of North Korea and Iran. The ICNND report'Eliminating Nuclear Threats,' released late last year, proposesmeeting these challenges with a co
 mprehensive agenda for reducing nuclearrisks. As the German ICNND Commissioner, I believe that this report is thefirst and only one so far to suggest precise and feasible steps towards anuclear-free world.The report consists of 20 proposals to be decided on at this year-s NPTreview conference, and ends with proposed decisions to be taken after 2025. Itleaves no room for doubt that a nuclear-free world is achievable without anyrisk to the security of individual states, provided that for the next 20 yearsor so there is sustained political will around the world, particularly in thenuclear-weapon states. In addition, the report proposes a declaration by thesestates that the sole purpose of nuclear weapons is to deter others from theiruse, coupled with an obligation not to increase their stockpiles.For the 2025 timeframe, the aim is to reduce the global nuclear stockpile to2,000, or less than 10 percent of today-s total. A 'No FirstUse' declaration should be collectively agreed u
 pon, in conjunction withcorresponding verifiable force structures, deployments, and readiness status.As supplementary steps, the report suggests negotiating limitations onmissiles, strategic missile defense, space-based weapons, and biologicalweapons, as well as holding talks on eliminating conventional weaponsimbalances.'Achieving this ambitious agenda by 2025 would usher in the last phase in thequest for a nuclear-free world, and requires, first and foremost, politicalconditions that reliably rule out regional or global wars of aggression.Nuclear weapons would thus become superfluous.Only then could they be banned and their total elimination begin. In parallel,mandatory measures would penalize any states attempting to circumvent the ban,as well as individuals involved in producing nuclear weapons.Obama-s vision could thus become reality 20 years from now, provided thatthe US and Russia take the first steps this year. Immediate further cuts mustinclude sub-strategic weapons
 , with the few remaining American nuclear weaponsin Europe withdrawn in exchange for the elimination of the still substantialRussian stockpile.But the withdrawal of American nuclear weapons from Europe is by no means thefirst step toward nuclear disarmament. To suggest it as an opening move coulddamage European security and jeopardize trans-Atlantic cohesion, so the messagehas to be 'no' to unilateral withdrawal, but 'yes' toincluding these weapons in future arms-control negotiations. Withdrawal ofthese weapons would not mean the end of nuclear deterrence for Europe, asdeterrence will remain necessary until the last nuclear weapon is dismantled.But the sole purpose of retaining some degree of deterrence will be to deterthe use of nuclear weapons.Europe perhaps benefited more than any other part of the world from nucleardeterrence, because it helped to preserve peace during the Cold War andprevented nuclear proliferation. But the time has now come to join PresidentsObama and 
 Medvedev in bringing about disarmament. Indeed, without the US andRussian examples, the world would see more, not fewer, nuclear-weapon states.Klaus Naumann was chairman of the NATO Military Committee and chief of staff ofthe Bundeswehr. THE DAILY STAR publishes this commentary in collaboration withProject Syndicate (c) (www.project-syndicate.org).(Description of Source: Beirut The Daily Star Online in English -- Website of the independent daily, The Daily Star; URL: http://dailystar.com.lb)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: LeaderInternational PoliticalDomestic PoliticalMilitaryInternational Economic,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONSIP
City: Beirut
Geographic Code: AUS,CHN,FRA,DEU,IND,IRN,ISR,JPN,PRK,PAK,RUS,GBR,USA,LBN
Geographic Name: Australia,China,France,Germany,India,Iran,Israel,Japan,North Korea,Pakistan,Russia,United Kingdom,United States,Lebanon,Oceania,Asia,Europe,Middle East,Eurasia,Americas,East Asia,South Asia,South Europe,North Europe,North Americas,NORTH AMERICA,WESTERN ASIA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,RUSSIA,USSR,AMERICAS,ASIA,EUROPE,MIDDLE EAST,NORTH KOREA,GULF STATES,IRAN,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Oceania,Asia,Europe,Middle East,Eurasia,Americas






-------------------- Monday May 24, 2010 T01:09:19Z --------------------
Title: ROK Daily: Lee to Spell Out South's Response to North's Attack
Journal: JoongAng Daily Online
Text:
(JOONGANG ILBO) - South Korean President Lee Myung-bak (Yi Myo'ng-pak) will announce today the country's response to North Korea's attack on the warship Cheonan, the Blue House (ROK Office of the President) said yesterday.According to Yi Tong-kwan (Lee Dong-kwan), a senior presidential secretary for public affairs, Lee will draw the "big picture" of South Korea's follow-up measures to the tragedy. President Lee will define the Cheonan incident as an "obvious armed provocation" staged by North Korea and will urge Pyongyang to take actions of its own in response.Spokesman Lee said, "President Lee will state that Seoul will take all kinds of strong reactions if Pyongyang carries out additional provocative military actions." Senior government officials explained that military actions are among the options.The official said Lee will state South Korea's position on taking the issue to the United Nations Security Council but declined to elaborate further.In addition, Chinese Premier
  Wen Jiabao will fly into Seoul this Friday for a meeting with Lee, the Blue House (ROK Office of the President) announced yesterday.Wen hadn't initially been scheduled to come to South Korea until Saturday for a tripartite meeting with Lee and Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama Saturday on Jeju Island. But after a multinational team of investigators determined last Thursday that a North Korean torpedo attack sank the Cheonan, Wen scheduled a stop in Seoul on Friday to meet Lee one-on-one.Ostensibly, Lee and Wen are to discuss ways to promote strategic cooperation. But Wen comes to Seoul as South Korea wants China's diplomatic support at the UN Security Council for a resolution against North Korea.Unanimity by the five permanent members of the Security Council - China, the U.S., Britain, France and Russia - is required for a binding resolution. South Korea fears that China, the North's biggest ally and benefactor, may be reluctant to condemn the North. After the probe fi
 ndings were announced, China called for calm and restraint.Lee, the Blue House official, said Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan (Yu Myo'ng-hwan), Unification Minister Hyun In-taek and Defense Minister Kim Tae-young (Kim T'ae-yo'ng) will hold a joint press conference following Lee's address today to offer more specifics of Seoul's response to the Cheonan sinking.The government has limited imports from North Korea and ministries have been asked to freeze their budgets on inter-Korean projects. Kaesong (Kaeso'ng) Industrial Complex, a joint industrial site built in the North as a symbol of reconciliation, is regarded as the last bastion of the inter-Korean ties, and the Blue House (ROK Office of the President) official said Lee will speak of his "cautious" approach to the Kaesong (Kaeso'ng) project.More than 100 South Korean companies employ about 40,000 North Koreans in Kaesong (Kaeso'ng). Shutting the complex will likely anger South Korean businesses that use Kaesong (Kaeso'ng) 
 as an Asian exports base.The United States has been a staunch supporter of South Korea as Seoul has been preparing countermeasures. And diplomatic sources in Washington said the Obama administration was working on its own set of punishments for North Korea, aside from supporting multilateral measures.Sources said the United States is considering financial sanctions on North Korean companies and government officials allegedly linked to the country's weapons programs.(Description of Source: Seoul JoongAng Daily Online in English -- Website of English-language daily which provides English-language summaries and full-texts of items published by the major center-right daily JoongAng Ilbo, as well as unique reportage; distributed as an insert to the Seoul edition of the International Herald Tribune; URL: http://joongangdaily.joins.com)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. I
 nquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: LeaderInternational EconomicMilitaryInternational Political,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Seoul
Geographic Code: KOR,PRK,CHN,USA
Geographic Name: South Korea,North Korea,China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,SOUTH KOREA,NORTH KOREAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Sunday May 23, 2010 T22:22:04Z --------------------
Title: Xinhua "Interview" by Marzia De Giuli: "Shanghai Expo Key Event for 'Made in Italy', President of Italian Fashion Company Says"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
MILAN, Italy, May 23 (Xinhua) -- The ongoing Shanghai Expo is a unique opportunity to promote "made in Italy", president of Italian fashion company Salvatore Ferragamo, Ferruccio Ferragamo, told Xinhua in a recent interview."The Shanghai Expo is an important landmark in China's continuous development," he said. "I love Chinese millenary culture and untiring vitality.""One of the most visited pavilions (some 30,000 visitors per day), the Italian pavilion is an ideal place to show Italy's excellences," stressed Ferragamo, who is the elder son of the shoe designer and founder of the eponymous Florence-based company, Salvatore Ferragamo."Our brand aims at being at the forefront of this historical moment. It was our company to inaugurate the pavilion's space dedicated to 'the making of', with an atelier demonstrating shoemakers' expertise in the art of crafting shoes, defined by Italy's ancient heritage fused with contemporary design."Ferragamo told Xinhua that he personally feels
  very close to Shanghai. "I keep a vivid memory of my first trip to Shanghai in 1994," he recalled. "I went to Shanghai with my brother to open our family's company first store in Chinese mainland, and I remember there were plenty of bicycles and grey-color clothing all around.""Since then I started traveling to China at least once a year and I saw the country going through amazing transformations," he said."In 2008 we chose to celebrate Salvatore Ferragamo company's 80th-year birthday in Shanghai, paying homage to the high-spirited atmosphere and magnificent future of this metropolis and to China' s fast growth."Ferragamo said that China's vitality reminds him of his father' s pioneer spirit. Emigrated to the United States when he was very young, Salvatore Ferragamo worked with many Hollywood stars in the 1920s, before returning to Italy to found a hand-made footwear company.Since then, celebrities from all over the world including actresses Marilyn Monroe and Zhang Ziyi co
 ntinued to wear Ferragamo's shoes.Evolved into a luxury goods empire spanning the world, the company is now looking at China for growth as consumption surges in the world's fastest-growing major economy."In April we inaugurated in Shanghai International Financial Center our 650-square-meter flagship, which is presently the biggest in Asia," Ferragamo said. "In China we have 40 stores in 28 cities and we plan to open another seven or eight in the next two or three years."(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International EconomicMigration,RETAILINGIP
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,ITA,USA
Geographic Name: China,Italy,United States,Asia,Europe,Americas,East Asia,South Europe,North Americas,CHINA,ITALY,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,SOUTHERN EUROPE,EUROPE,WESTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Asia,Europe,Americas






-------------------- Sunday May 23, 2010 T21:12:12Z --------------------
Title: "Commentary on International Affairs" by reporter Yan Feng: "Pushing Forward China-US Relations on the Important Platform of Dialogue"
Journal: Xinhua Domestic Service
Text:
The China-US strategic and economic dialogue mechanism was initiated and established by President Hu Jintao and President Obama. It is aimed at conducting in-depth communication on the strategic, long-term, and comprehensive nature of the development of China-US relations. It is an important measure for both sides to promote China-US relations in the new era. Since the first round of the dialogue in Washington in July last year, China-US relations have achieved positive progress; the two countries' pragmatic cooperation in the fields of economy, trade, energy, environmental protection, humanities, science, and education has further deepened; both sides have maintained closed communication and coordination in dealing with the international financial crisis, climate change, disaster relief, disease prevention and control, as well as other international, regional, and global issues.Despite the interruption in China-US relations for a period of time, both sides' relations returne
 d to a normal track of development through the concerted efforts of both sides. In particular, the successful meeting between President Hu Jintao and President Obama in Washington on 12 April helped further improve and develop the two countries' relations. The decrease of the interruption by complicated factors in China-US relations created conditions for the smooth holding of the second round of China-US strategic and economic dialogue.BOTh sides attach a great importance to the current dialogue. Since the beginning of this year, both sides have maintained close communication and coordination for the preparation of the second round the strategic and economic dialogue. US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Campbell said days ago that the US side would send a huge delegation composed of more than 200 officials from different US government departments to participate in the dialogue. Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai said on 20 May that the 
 Chinese side is willing to make joint efforts with the US side to help the current strategic and economic dialogue achieve positive results.As learned, under the strategic dialogue framework, the two countries' relevant departments will conduct counterpart discussions and bilateral meetings on energy security, climate change, UN peacekeeping mission, and antiterrorism. Under the economic dialogue framework, both sides will conduct communication and discussions on the main theme of "ensuring China-US economic cooperative partnership for sustained development, mutual benefit, and win-win results"; on economic recovery and growth, trade and investment, financial market stability and reform, as well as the international financial system reform. The China-US strategic and economic dialogue mechanism is the highest in level and largest in scale among more than 60 dialogue mechanisms between the two countries. On this platform, both sides can deepen communication and exchanges on m
 ajor issue. This is conducive to both sides in understanding each other's concerns, expanding consensus, and reducing differences.China, as the largest developing country in the world, and the United States, as the largest developed country, share a wide range of common interests but also have differences. It is impossible and unrealistic to expect that all problems will be solved through one dialogue. The crucial problem is that both sides should conduct communication and dialogue on a strategic, long-term, and comprehensive principle, always control the two countries' relations from a strategic height and a long-term angle, strive to widen consensus and narrow differences on the basis of mutual respect and equality, increase mutual trust, seek win-win results, and promote the development of China-US relations along a healthy and stable track. China-US strategic and economic dialogue is an important platform for both sides to strive for this goal.(Description of Source: Bei
 jing Xinhua Domestic Service in Chinese -- China's official news service (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International EconomicInternational PoliticalLeaderUrgent,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Sunday May 23, 2010 T20:05:46Z --------------------
Title: Dispatch by the "two session" reporting team in Beijing: "Exclusive News: The National Copyright Administration May Take Charge in the Google Rights Infringement Negotiation"
Journal: Wen Wei Po Online
Text:
According to a source, the initiative grasped by China lies mainly in the fact that it has acquired a full list regarding copyright infringement provided by Google. On 29 December last year, Google gave the China Written Works Copyright Society (CWWCS) a preliminary list, which indicated that Google's digital library had more than 80,000 Chinese books. However, because the list was not exhaustive, (talks on) issues concerning the compensated party, compensation amount, and compensation method could not begin. Choose the Right Time To Seek Maximum GainsThis newspaper understands that before the two sessions began, China already acquired a full list regarding copyright infringement and that it is now sorting out the list. Based on preliminary statistics, Google's digital library has about 210,000 Chinese books, which is much more than the previous estimate. The source said that "by grasping this key evidence, China has already gained the upper hand in the 'copyright infringemen
 t case' and it can ask to resume the negotiation at any time." As to when the negotiation will resume, China is currently focusing on sorting out the list by listing the real names of the infringed parties and books whose authors cannot be identified for now. Meanwhile, it will pay attention to the final results of the "fair hearing" related to the reconciliation talks between Google and American publishers. It intends to choose the best time to maximize the efficiency of the talks.In the next round of negotiation, there may be a change to the party on the Chinese side involved in the talks. In the last three rounds of talks, it was the CWWCS that held dialogue with Google. This newspaper has learned that China is now considering whether to "let the CWWCS continue to negotiate" or "let the National Copyright Association take charge." More Effective if National Copyright Administration Takes ChargeAccording to the source, the CWWCS, a semi-official institution, had made impor
 tant achievements in the talks in that it had forced Google to make public apologies and had gathered evidence on copyright infringement. It had done what its foreign counterparts had not been able to do. Talks in the future would involve specific compensation methods. In reference to the negotiation experiences of other countries, it may be more effective if the National Copyright Association takes charge.It is understood that China is also in touch with the International Federation of Reproduction Rights Organizations in order to collect information related to France, Germany, Italy, and Japan, which have copyright dealings with Google, with a view to making satisfactory gains from the next round of talks. According to the source, in the next round China would take a very clear attitude toward the negotiation. In sum, it would "seek to resolve the copyright infringement issue by confining the discussion to the matter at issue and safeguard the right of copyright holders. I
 t does not want to screw up Google, and nor does it want to cause other unnecessary contradictions."(Description of Source: Hong Kong Wen Wei Po Online in Chinese -- Website of PRC-owned daily newspaper with a very small circulation; ranked low in "credibility" in Hong Kong opinion surveys due to strong pro-Beijing bias; has good access to PRC sources; URL: http://www.wenweipo.com)Attachments:wwp0311c.pdfMaterial in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalMedia,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTIP
City: Hong Kong
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Sunday May 23, 2010 T14:07:38Z --------------------
Title: Xinhua "Feature": "Sustainability Event Comes To Chicago To Showcase Best in Green"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
by Jing Zhao CesaroneCHICAGO, May 23 (Xinhua) -- Walking into the Green Festival at Chicago's Navy Pier is like entering an eco-friendly fantasyland where green is the goal and sustainable is in style.A joint project of Global Exchange and Green America, the nation's premier sustainability event -- the Green Festival -- kicked off its Chicago event Saturday morning. Both Illinois Governor Pat Quinn and Chicago Mayor Richard Daley attended the opening ceremony.Individuals and community leaders dedicated to improving the environment came together to discuss critical issues impacting the United States and other countries, while organizations and businesses showcased programs and products that restore the planet. In addition, critical community connections were formed and skills shared to empower people to create positive change in the world.As the largest sustainability event in the world, the Green Festival brings to Chicago more than 125 authors, leaders and educators, as well
  as practical how-to workshops, cutting-edge films and fun activities for kids. Sustainable sustenance abounded with organic beer and wine, vegetarian cuisine and a diverse mix of live music.In the unique and colorful, green marketplace, attendees enjoyed shopping at more than 350 eco-friendly booths, which offered everything from all-natural body care products and organic cotton clothing to Fair Trade gifts and beautiful kitchen tiles made from renewable resources. Also featured were workshops on how to green your home and how to avoid products made in sweatshops.Standing by her new line of eco-friendly clothing, Wendy Baker, owner of Green Family Clothing Co. from California, told Xinhua, "Green family supports organic production systems because they replenish and maintain soil fertility, reduce the use of toxic pesticides and fertilizers, and build biologically diverse agriculture."Pulling a long black dress from the rack, she said, "Look at this dress -- it is super soft
  and is really comfortable to wear because your body can breathe in it. I designed the whole collection and sew it myself." Smiling, she added, "Business is good."Sam Kurzydlo, an 11-year-old boy from Chicago, was fascinated by the many products and activities at the festival. He said, "I like all the organizations that help improve the environment. I also like the stores where they make things out of environmentally friendly materials, such as clothing and food."When asked why it is important to be green, the fifth grader said, "There is a lot of pollution going on and the Earth is really not in the best shape. But many people don't realize it. If a lot of people try to help, we could make a difference." Commenting on his contribution to the cause, he added "we have energy saving light bulbs at home and my family is vegetarian."Standing between the exhibitors booths were two volunteers busy helping people put their garbage into the right garbage cans.Sharon Falten, a full-t
 ime volunteer from Chicago, said, "We are here to help the general public split up their trash for recycling. People usually recycle paper or glass. What they don't really know is that almost everything here is decomposable."Amber Myers, a social worker from Chicago explained, "All the plastics and paper plates at the Green Festival will decompose, which means they will go back to the earth.""This is a great place to be and meet other like-minded people. Together we can push forward to save our planet," she added.The Green Festival is the only green event that screens exhibitors for their commitment to sustainability, ecological balance and social justice using Green America's green business standards.Green America is a not-for-profit membership organization founded in 1982 with a mission to harness economic power -- the strength of consumers, investors, businesses and the marketplace -- to create a socially just and environmentally sustainable society.(Description of Source
 : Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: EnvironmentEnergyInternational Economic
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: USA
Geographic Name: United States,Americas,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,ILLINOIS,USAIP
Region: Americas






-------------------- Sunday May 23, 2010 T12:00:23Z --------------------
Title: Xinhua "Roundup" by David Harris: "Palestinians, Israelis Dispute Size of Land Swap"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
JERUSALEM, May 23 (Xinhua) -- The Palestinians and Israelis have agreed to the principle of swapping land in any peace deal, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas told reporters in Ramallah on Saturday.This is the one concrete advance made public following the launch of indirect peace talks between the two neighbors that took place last week.U.S. special envoy to the Middle East George Mitchell is heading the proximity talks, which at this stage are between Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.While the parties agreed to the principle of a one-for-one land swap, the amount of land the parties will exchange is a point of some contention.WHY A LAND DEAL?The international community headed by the United States wants to see a Palestinian state created in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip. That area is based on Israel's borders as they were on the eve of the 1967 Six Day War.However, in the interim some 250,000 Israelis have moved into the West Bank and 
 live in towns and villages known overseas as the settlements. The presence of settlers in the occupied territories is seen as a major obstacle to any peace deal.The Palestinians and Israelis agreed that the first topics on the table last week would be territory and security. The Palestinians want the focus to be on the land issue, while Israel believes its own security should be paramount.In order for any form of deal to go ahead, the Americans say it must be based on the 1967 borders but with any changes being agreed by the parties. That is another way of saying that some of the largest settlement blocs will likely remain in Israeli hands.As a result, according to Abbas, the Israelis have agreed to exchange land in sovereign Israeli territory for any settlements that remain in Israeli hands in the West Bank.The debate is over exactly how much land should be exchanged. In the ideal scenario the Palestinians would like to see that figure being as close to zero as possible. Th
 e smaller the territory exchanged the closer the borders will be to those of 1967.It is reported that the Palestinians are prepared to exchange anywhere from 1.9 percent to 4 percent of West Bank land for the same amount in Israel. The 1.9-percent figure was initially made public when the Palestinians were negotiating with then Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert back in 2008.For their part the Israelis are demanding a 6.5-percent land swap, meaning that more settlements would remain in Israeli hands after any peace agreement.THE FACE OF THE MAPThe Palestinians would likely take land in three areas of Israel adjoining the West Bank: to its south, southwest and west, according to Oren Yiftachel, a professor of political geography at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev.That land would not only have to be the same size as any retained by Israel but also of the same quality.Yiftachel was involved in drawing up such maps during the Taba talks in January 2001. He believes if and whe
 n there is a final agreement on borders, it will be based on those maps, which examined land swaps of anywhere from 1 percent to 8 percent.Dealing with a 4-percent deal would be much easier for Israel than a 1.9-percent arrangement. Not only would it be more palatable for Netanyahu's hawkish coalition partners, but it would also make the evacuation process far less painful. The more people Israel can leave where they presently reside, the less political upheaval there will be. It will also mean fewer clashes between settlers and Israeli security personnel.Nevertheless, most settlements will have to be evacuated in any deal, Yiftachel told Xinhua on Sunday, possibly including one or two of the largest settlements such as Ariel with its just shy of 20,000 residents. If there is a warm peace, then a place like Ariel could fall inside Israel with the border running out the town quite literally "along the width of the asphalt," as Yiftachel put it.Similarly, if the Palestinian st
 ate comes into being through an amicable solution, some Israeli villages may remain in their current locations but under Palestinian rule, he suggested.Another question most likely not yet addressed is what would become of the empty homes of the settlers. Yiftachel said it would be a pity and a waste to see those homes demolished. When Israel left Gaza unilaterally in 2005 Palestinians destroyed their houses rather than hand them to Palestinian families.PESSIMISM DESPITE AGREEMENTNetanyahu on Sunday denied the reports that the Palestinian Authority is willing to make "big concessions" to Israel on the issue of the future Palestinian state's borders. The prime minister has reportedly urged his ministers not to speak to the media about the contents of the talks, with civil servants under similar instructions.Many analysts believe that the longer the politicians remain silent, the greater the chances that the sides are making progress, but despite that, pessimism still pervades
 ."The devil is in the details, the principles are easy. This is not sufficient," said Ephraim Inbar, director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies near Tel Aviv.Yiftachel believes that many of the details have already been worked out with regard to the borders but he is of the opinion " that there needs to be a change of disc to one of peace and cooperation" in order for many of the proposals to work.Like Inbar, Yiftachel realizes that any progress made last week was only at the most initial of stages. He describes it as "a slightly encouraging sign in a situation that is quite gloomy and full of despair."(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Energy,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: GZ,ISR,USA,WE
Geographic Name: Gaza Strip,Israel,United States,West Bank,Middle East,Americas,North Americas,MEDITERRANEAN,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,MIDDLE EAST,ISRAEL,PALESTINEIP
Region: Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Sunday May 23, 2010 T11:30:04Z --------------------
Title: Article by staff reporter Kim Tae-gyu: "Cheonan Case Shows Lack of China Strategy"
Journal: The Korea Times Online
Text:
(Description of Source: Seoul The Korea Times Online in English -- Website of The Korea Times, an independent and moderate English-language daily published by its sister daily Hanguk Ilbo from which it often draws articles and translates into English for publication; URL: http://www.koreatimes.co.kr)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: MilitaryInternational PoliticalInternational Economic,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Seoul
Geographic Code: KOR,PRK,CHN,USA,GBR,SWE,AUS
Geographic Name: South Korea,North Korea,China,United States,United Kingdom,Sweden,Australia,Asia,Americas,Europe,Oceania,East Asia,North Americas,North Europe,SOUTH KOREA,NORTH KOREA,CHINA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIAIP
Region: Asia,Americas,Europe,Oceania






-------------------- Sunday May 23, 2010 T11:17:57Z --------------------
Title: ROK Editorial Calls for 'Further' Sanctions Against DPRK
Journal: The Korea Times Online
Text:
(Description of Source: Seoul The Korea Times Online in English -- Website of The Korea Times, an independent and moderate English-language daily published by its sister daily Hanguk Ilbo from which it often draws articles and translates into English for publication; URL: http://www.koreatimes.co.kr)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International EconomicMilitaryInternational Political,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTIP
City: Seoul
Geographic Code: KOR,PRK,CHN,JPN,USA
Geographic Name: South Korea,North Korea,China,Japan,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,SOUTH KOREA,NORTH KOREAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Sunday May 23, 2010 T09:30:46Z --------------------
Title: Updated version: adding Urgent tag, rewriting Subject line; Xinhua: "U.S. Representatives Arrive in Beijing for Talks"
Journal: Xinhua
Text:
(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: LeaderInternational EconomicInternational PoliticalUrgent,INTERNATIONAL ISSUES,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTIP
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Sunday May 23, 2010 T09:08:26Z --------------------
Title: ROK Editorial Says DPRK Leader Started Digging 'Own Grave' With Order To Sink ROK Ship
Journal: The Korea Herald Online
Text:
(Description of Source: Seoul The Korea Herald Online in English -- Website of the generally pro-government English-language daily The Korea Herald; URL: http://www.koreaherald.co.kr)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalMilitaryInternational Economic,SOCIAL ISSUES,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT,LEGALIP
City: Seoul
Geographic Code: KOR,PRK,CHN,RUS,USA
Geographic Name: South Korea,North Korea,China,Russia,United States,Asia,Eurasia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,SOUTH KOREA,NORTH KOREAIP
Region: Asia,Eurasia,Americas






-------------------- Sunday May 23, 2010 T08:44:42Z --------------------
Title: Xinhua: Shanghai Party Chief Yu Zhengsheng Meets US Secretary of State Clinton 22 May
Journal: Xinhua Domestic Service
Text:
Yu Zhengsheng thanked Clinton for supporting the Shanghai World Expo. He said: Through the Shanghai World Expo, the Chinese people will understand more about the world, and the world will also understand more about China. This will continuously increase each other's understanding and promote a wider range of cooperation. With the strong support and joint efforts of people in various circles, we will certainly be able to host a successful, splendid, and unforgettable world expo. We believe that the American Pavilion will leave a deep impression on every visitor. Shanghai and the United States have close economic and trade links. We welcome more US enterprises to carry out business development in Shanghai, further strengthen exchanges and cooperation, create new and more opportunities, and bring about win-win results.Clinton said: The Shanghai World Expo is well organized, there are many bright spots in the Expo Park, and the Chinese Pavilion makes a deep impression on people. 
 She will leave Shanghai with a beautiful memory of the World Expo.She added that in her current visit, she will go to Beijing to attend the second round of US-China strategic and economic dialogue. The relationship between the US and Chinese Governments is very important, and exchanges between the American and Chinese peoples are an important foundation for the positive development of the two countries' relations in the future.Chinese Ambassador to the United States Zhang Yesui and Vice Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai were present on the occasion.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua Domestic Service in Chinese -- China's official news service (New China News Agency))Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International EconomicInternational PoliticalLeader,JOINT VENTURES,INTERNATIONAL ISSUES,GOVERNMENT,MANAGEMENT PROCEDURESIP
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: CHN,USA
Geographic Name: China,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Sunday May 23, 2010 T08:18:58Z --------------------
Title: Manila Daily: Envoy's Visit Broad Hint US Recognizes Aquino as Next President
Journal: INQUIRER.net
Text:
intervention.)MANILA, Philippines--While the Papal Nuncio, in keeping with tradition, is the dean of the diplomatic corps, the primus inter pares among foreign ambassadors (because of the superpower status of the country he represents) is the US ambassador. Harry Thomas Jr.'s arrival had previously been heralded by a flurry of unofficial but well-placed manifestations that this was no mere changing of the diplomatic guard. The supposed "Arroyo-booster," Kristie Kenney, was not just being replaced, she was being officially disowned with statements being made by officially deniable mandarins like Scott Thomson.And so, when Ambassador Thomas very publicly motored to Sen. Benigno Aquino III's Times Street residence last Friday, it was seen as no mere courtesy call but a broad hint at Washington's policy of supporting democratic transitions in Southeast Asia.Thomas' visit came mere days before Congress is set to begin the official canvass of results preparatory to formally proclai
 ming the presidential and vice presidential winners of the May 10 elections. It came at the end of a week of recriminations in the House of Representatives where a parade of defeated candidates put forward what they believe to be evidence of fraud; and a stunt was presented to try to tar the results of the elections with the same brush.Speaker Prospero Nograles began the week hinting, darkly, that a protracted proclamation process ought to be expected; the administration officially declined to comment but broadly winked at those hoping to mire the forthcoming proclamation in the same quicksand of doubt which swallowed up all hopes of President Macapagal-Arroyo's 2004 victory being considered legitimate. Having breathed a sigh of relief, the country now has to wonder if a succession crisis might be unfolding.It is important then to consider why foreign governments have begun beating a path to Senator Aquino's doorstep, to congratulate him.On May 14, the Prime Minister of Spai
 n, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, sent an official telegram congratulating Aquino for his "victory in the last presidential elections," wishing him "success during your presidential term," and with the usual expressions pledging cooperation and closeness between the two countries. A letter of congratulations was also sent by the governor of Tokyo on the same day.On May 17, the ambassador of the People's Republic of China, Liu Jianchao, also sent a congratulatory letter, saying "The Filipino people have chosen Your Honorable (sic) to lead the country for the next six years," and with the usual pledges of warm ties and cooperation, and asking for the opportunity to "share your insights" on bilateral relations. This was followed by the US ambassador calling on Aquino last Friday.Nations, whether through their heads of government or their ambassadors, do not take such steps without careful consultations and consideration of the lay of the land. On one hand, nations want to have t
 he bragging rights, so to speak, that come from being the first to establish diplomatic connections to an incoming head of state; on the other hand, they are bound to do so according to the protocols governing relations between sovereign states.Every nation faces the horror of repeating the blunder of the Soviet ambassador who was the lone diplomat at Ferdinand Marcos' ghoulish last "inauguration" at Malacanang in 1986. Which may explain why heads of governments or their diplomats extend their courtesies to Aquino, while withholding the formal recognition of his being the next president of the Philippines, until Congress formally proclaims him as such. But there is formality and there is reality: and Spain, China and the United States have been the most public in taking the first step toward official recognition.In that sense these foreign diplomats are in lockstep with domestic expectations and opinion: we know who the next president of the Philippines will be. And these co
 untries have gone public in expressing confidence in the ability of our institutions to affirm the mandate conferred on the next administration last May 10.(Description of Source: Makati City INQUIRER.net in English -- Website of the Philippine Daily Inquirer, a privately owned daily published by Isagani Yambot, veteran journalist and former press attache of the Philippine Embassy in Saudi Arabia and the United States; widely read by the middle class and elite; carries balanced news stories and a mixture of pro- and anti-government commentaries and editorials. Its editorial consultant, Amando Doronila, writes an influential column and is highly respected by President Arroyo. Good source for breaking news. Average circulation: over 250,000; URL: http://www.inquirer.net)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Co
 mmerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational Political,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Makati City
Geographic Code: CHN,PHL,ESP,USA
Geographic Name: China,Philippines,Spain,United States,Asia,Europe,Americas,East Asia,South East Asia,South Europe,North Americas,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,SOUTHEAST ASIA,PHILIPPINESIP
Region: Asia,Europe,Americas






-------------------- Sunday May 23, 2010 T07:21:06Z --------------------
Title: Yonhap headline: "S. Korea to Seek U.N. Resolution on N. Korea Over Ship Attack"
Journal: Yonhap
Text:
resolution on North Korea at the United Nations Security Council, following the communist country's attack on a South Korean vessel in March, officials here said Sunday (23 May).A team of multinational investigators announced Thursday that a North Korean midget submarine downed the 1,200-ton South Korean patrol ship Cheonan with a torpedo near the tense inter-Korean border in the Yellow Sea. Forty-six sailors aboard were killed in the worst naval tragedy since the 1950-53 Korea War."We are focusing on diplomatic means of punishment as we found out that existing sanctions and resolutions are not enough," a senior government official told Yonhap News Agency. "It is time to decide whether we go over to another step."The UN adopted two resolutions on North Korea -- resolution 1718 and 1874 -- after the communist country conducted nuclear and missile tests in 2006 and 2009. The resolutions banned arms transfer to and from Pyongyang and called for all nations to discontinue financi
 al assistance to the regime."The United States, which leads the UN, is taking a firm stand and other countries including Japan are raising the issue of the North Korean attack. The mood (for another UN resolution on Pyongyang) is building up," said the official.Another official at the country's presidential office also hinted at bringing the case to the UN Security Council and seeking a fresh resolution, adding, "It is logical to give a number to a resolution based on the Council's menu."President Lee Myung-bak (Yi Myo'ng-pak) called the attack a military provocation that constitutes a violation of the UN Charter and the armistice that ended the Korean War at the National Security Council meeting on Friday.However, it remains unclear whether China, the North's closest ally and a veto-wielding member of the Council, will back the move. China called for restraint in handling the sinking issue and said it would make its own assessment of the probe results.US Secretary of State 
 Hillary Clinton began her three-nation Asia tour Friday, with scheduled stops in Japan, China and South Korea. She will come to Seoul on Wednesday for talks with her South Korean counterpart, Yu Myung-hwan.Officials and analysts expect the Cheonan issue to be dealt with thoroughly when she goes to China before coming to Seoul.Getting China on board has been complicated by Pyongyang's persistent denial of any involvement in the Cheonan's sinking.North Korea stepped up its hostile rhetoric, saying it will "regard the present situation as the phase of a war," and send its own investigative panel to probe the incident.(Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: MilitaryInternational PoliticalUrgentProliferation,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONSIP
City: Seoul
Geographic Code: KOR,PRK,USA,CHN,JPN
Geographic Name: South Korea,North Korea,United States,China,Japan,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,SOUTH KOREA,NORTH KOREA,CHINA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Sunday May 23, 2010 T05:55:16Z --------------------
Title: Report by Philip Tubeza, Leila B. Salaverria, Edson C. Tandoc Jr. with a report from Alcuin Papa: "China, Spain hail Aquino's poll victory"
Journal: INQUIRER.net
Text:
intervention.)EVEN BEFORE US AMBASSADOR HARRY THOMAS JR. called on presumptive president-elect Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III, the ambassador of emerging superpower China and the Spanish prime minister had congratulated the Liberal Party standard-bearer for winning the May 10 presidential election.In a May 17 letter to Aquino, Chinese Ambassador Liu Jianchao extended "warmest congratulations" and said China would be "reenergized" to work with Aquino's "focused and capable leadership" in advancing its "strategic relationship" with the Philippines.In a May 14 letter coursed through the Spanish Embassy, Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero wished Aquino success during his presidency and said Spain was ready to cooperate with his administration.On Friday, Thomas called on Aquino at his residence on Times Street, Quezon City, and extended his "maligayang bati (best wishes)."The US envoy said in a subsequent press conference that "the will of the Filipino people was respected" 
 in the presidential election.Lawmakers Saturday said Thomas' visit was a tacit message from the US government that the scheduled congressional canvass of the votes for president and vice president should be conducted quickly and well.On Monday, the leader of a major European power is also expected to speak with Aquino, according to sources in his camp who asked not to be named for lack of authority to discuss the matter publicly.US recognitionAt the Kapihan sa Sulo forum Saturday, Senate Minority Leader Aquilino Pimentel Jr. said Thomas' visit and meeting with Aquino at his Quezon City home mainly showed that the US government was recognizing the latter's victory."The message that they are sending is that even before the proclamation, they already recognize Noynoy," Pimentel said, adding that the US government also appeared to be saying that the May 10 elections were "okay."Pimentel likewise said the US government was signaling that it would frown on shenanigans in Congress'
  forthcoming canvass of votes: "(Thomas') call on Noynoy Aquino says a lot of things... That there should be no hanky-panky in the congressional canvassing of the votes of the presidential candidates."On the phone, Rep. Neri Colmenares of the militant party-list group Bayan Muna aired a similar view:"The US has signaled that Noynoy is the President. They have signaled to the congressmen, the senators, to the President that that is the case."The timing of (Thomas') visit was before the canvassing. It was as if they are saying, 'Get the canvassing over with.'"Monday startCongress is to convene Monday to begin the process for the canvass of votes for president and vice president in preparation for the proclamation.The actual canvass may begin on Tuesday, after the Senate and the House adopt the canvassing rules.But the process may not go as smoothly as hoped, with ousted President Joseph Estrada, who is trailing Aquino in second place, threatening to question some of the certif
 icates of canvass.Estrada has alleged that irregularities marred the country's first automated elections. A number of other losing candidates claim that the election results are questionable because of fraud or glitches in the voting process.Speaker Prospero Nograles Saturday promised that the canvassing of votes and proclamation of the winners would not be delayed as long as all the required documents had been submitted."I would be the last person who would try to even imagine a vacuum of power in government," Nograles said in a text message to reporters.In a separate statement, he said he would not sacrifice accuracy in favor of speed.Congress has until June 30 to proclaim the new president and vice president, although it may be done earlier.According to political analyst Ramon Casiple, Thomas' visit is "a de facto recognition of (Aquino's) administration" and "bad (news) for those questioning his presidency."Casiple said it was uncommon for US ambassadors to relay congrat
 ulatory messages to election winners before their official proclamation.He said Friday's break in protocol meant the US government accepted the election results despite claims of fraud: "It means they don't see the gravity of the allegations."Defining victoryAmbassador Liu said that even as official election results were still pending, he was "delighted to note" that Aquino was "well-poised to claim a defining victory in the presidential election.""The Filipino people have chosen (your honor) to lead the country for the next six years. Your exceptional campaign rewards your tireless commitment to serving your great people. With inspiring themes of your campaign echoed all across the archipelago, your endeavor will prepare the Philippines to a path of change, and optimism and progress," Liu said.The envoy sought a meeting with Aquino so that the latter could present his "insights" on issues including the relationship between the two countries, which is turning 35 next month."
 The message (of the Aquino campaign) resonates well beyond (Philippine) borders," Liu said. "China, bound to the Philippines through ties of history and friendship, will be reenergized to work with your focused and capable leadership aimed at advancing (the two countries') strategic relationship of cooperation with more strength, depth and fruits."Identical objectivesPrime Minister Zapatero likewise invoked bilateral ties and expressed "most sincere and warm congratulations" in his letter to Aquino."I wish you all the success during your presidential term and at the same time, I want to convey to you my conviction that relations between Spain and the Philippines will continue to increase in all fields, in line with our two countries' historic and cultural common past and taking into account that we share identical objectives of freedom, social justice and progress," Zapatero said."I reiterate my willingness and that of my government to closely cooperate with that of the Repu
 blic of the Philippines that you are to preside over by June 30th," he said.The Spanish ambassador to Manila, Luis Aria Romero, also congratulated Aquino and said some members of the Aquino campaign were his friends."I wish to express my personal congratulations on your victory in the elections held last May 10, which I'd like to extend to all members of your campaign team, several of whom I am honored to call my friends," Romero said in a letter dated May 17."I am confident that the relations between Spain and the new government of the Republic of the Philippines will be most cordial, friendly, and efficient in the coming years under your presidential mandate," the ambassador said.Spain was the Philippines' colonial master for 300 years before the United States took over in the early 20th century.'Good signal'President Macapagal-Arroyo's spokespersons said Thomas' call on Aquino indicated continuing ties between the Philippines and the United States."The new ambassador's ca
 ll on Senator Aquino augurs well for the continuation of a stable and positive relationship between the two countries, starting with a timely and orderly transition between presidents," Gary Olivar said in a statement.Over radio dzRB, Ricardo Saludo said the visit was a "good signal" that the US government was interested in keeping a harmonious relationship with the Philippines."The United States shows it wants to continue its good relationship, and we hope this will continue in the next administration," Saludo said.Bayan unhappyExpectedly, the militant Bagong Alyansang Makabayan (Bayan) is not happy with the meeting between Aquino and Thomas, which, it said, "raises questions on the type of foreign policy direction the next administration will take.""We're not at all thrilled by this early meeting. The US wants to ensure that there will be a peaceful transfer of power and that its economic, political and military interests in the country will be preserved under the next adm
 inistration. For the US government, Aquino is the man. The US now wants to make sure Aquino is their man," Bayan secretary general Renato Reyes Jr. said in a statement.Reyes said Aquino would have to prove he is capable of charting an independent foreign policy."The next president must show independence from US dictates. It is highly important that national sovereignty be given priority over imperial dictates such as the Visiting Forces Agreement and the neoliberal globalization of the economy," Reyes said.He said Bayan would closely watch the incoming administration's dealings with the US government.(Description of Source: Makati City INQUIRER.net in English -- Website of the Philippine Daily Inquirer, a privately owned daily published by Isagani Yambot, veteran journalist and former press attache of the Philippine Embassy in Saudi Arabia and the United States; widely read by the middle class and elite; carries balanced news stories and a mixture of pro- and anti-government
  commentaries and editorials. Its editorial consultant, Amando Doronila, writes an influential column and is highly respected by President Arroyo. Good source for breaking news. Average circulation: over 250,000; URL: http://www.inquirer.net)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational Political,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Makati City
Geographic Code: CHN,PHL,ESP,USA
Geographic Name: China,Philippines,Spain,United States,Asia,Europe,Americas,East Asia,South East Asia,South Europe,North Americas,SPAIN,IBERIA,MEDITERRANEAN,CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,SOUTHERN EUROPE,EUROPE,SOUTHEAST ASIA,PHILIPPINES,WESTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Asia,Europe,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T22:09:45Z --------------------
Title: Article by Liu Liqun: Annoyance and Frustration Surround US Army in Afghanistan
Journal: Jiefangjun Bao Online
Text:
(Description of Source: Beijing Jiefangjun Bao Online in Chinese -- Website of daily newspaper of the Central Military Commission of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), reporting on a wide range of military affairs. URL: http://www.chinamil.com.cn/)Attachments:jf0523a.pdfMaterial in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalMilitary,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Beijing
Geographic Code: AFG,USA
Geographic Name: Afghanistan,United States,Asia,Americas,South Asia,North Americas,INDO CHINA,NORTH AMERICA,WESTERN ASIA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,VIETNAM,AFGHANISTAN,SOUTHEAST ASIA,MIDDLE EAST,GULF STATESIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T17:27:22Z --------------------
Title: Report by Salman Ghani: "Political, Military Leadership Should Clarify That Unilateral Attack on Pakistan Can Destroy US: Aslam Beg
Journal: Nawa-e Waqt
Text:
proliferation and the US threats for operation in North Waziristan as contrary to Pakistan's national interests, former Army Chief Mirza Aslam Beg has said that it is high time that the Pakistani military and political leadership make it clear to the United States to stay within its limits and not try to pressurize Pakistan. "A unilateral attack can cause their destruction. The United States needs to be told that you have lost war against the Afghan Taliban, you withdrew from Iraq, and your cronies are now hiding in Lebanon. Pakistan will also turn into your graveyard," Beg said. Beg was talking to the Nawa-e-Waqtyesterday (30 May).Beg said that leaving the North Waziristan issue to the Army was great failure for the government. He said that it was a great victory for the Pakistani military that it successfully completed operation in Swat, Dir, and Waziristan four months ago. "It is now the responsibility of the government to establish its writ and restore political process. 
 However, they are now talking about North Waziristan operation. I am clearly stating this in front of the nation that if they committed the mistake of carrying out military operation in North Waziristan, the fame won by the Army in Dir, Swat, and Waziristan will turn into infamy. By doing so, they will entangle themselves in a cobweb, which will be difficult to disentangle," Beg said.Beg said: "Our history stands witness to the fact that we had completed military operation in east Pakistan (now Bangladesh) in June, July 1971; however, the government could not restore the political process, which defeated us. I was myself brigade commander when we had successfully completed military operation against the Marris and Bugtis in 1975. I had given the good news to Bhutto and had said to him 'Please come forward. It is now your duty.' He promised before leaving; however, nothing happened. Things could not be controlled until today."Beg further said that the Pakistani Army successfu
 lly completed operation in Swat, Dir, and Waziristan four months ago. "Instead of restoring the political process in those places, they are trying to entangle the Army in North Waziristan. Instead of taking the responsibility, the government is trying to entangle the Army. It will be difficult to safeguard the national interests if military operation is carried out in North Waziristan," Beg said.Khalid Khwaja had returned with the same message, Beg said. He said that Khwaja had resided in a compound where the Afghan as well as the Pakistani Taliban were residing. "He had returned with the message to renounce accomplishing US designs; ensure your national interests and we will not hinder your way. However, he was removed from the scene," Beg said. Beg asked that who removed him and why did they do so? "They are here; however, I fear about the consequences if the Afghan and the Pakistani Taliban collude. Their activities will be quite dangerous. Operation in North Waziristan w
 ill, in fact, cause chaos and instability in Pakistan. We should get rid of operations and think of political process. The US threats are mere expression of Dutch courage. Those defeated by Iraq and Afghanistan are now threatening Pakistan," he said.Beg said that if the United States committed the mistake of attacking Pakistan, it would be defeated and would not get a safe passage from Afghanistan. Beg said: "Our political and military leadership should convey to the United States that it should come to senses as Pakistan will prove indigestible for them."(Description of Source: Rawalpindi Nawa-e Waqt in Urdu -- Privately owned, widely read, conservative Islamic daily, with circulation around 125,000. Harshly critical of the US and India.)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalMilitaryTerrorism,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRSIP
City: Rawalpindi
Geographic Code: AFG,IRQ,PAK,USA
Geographic Name: Afghanistan,Iraq,Pakistan,United States,Asia,Middle East,Americas,South Asia,North Americas,PAKISTAN,NORTH AMERICA,WESTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,AFGHANISTAN,MIDDLE EAST,SOUTHERN ASIA,INDIAN SUBCONTINENTIP
Region: Asia,Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T13:44:51Z --------------------
Title: To request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
Journal: Nawa-e Waqt
Text:
Prominent pictures on page 1 show Army Chief General Kayani meeting Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, the Israeli Navy attacking workers bringing in relief goods for Gaza, and Foreign Minister Shah Mahmud Qureshi talking to journalists. The lower half of the page has a quarter-page advertisement. Lead Story: Report by special correspondent: Israeli attack on relief convoy; 20 martyred, 60 injured; more than 600, including Pakistani Journalist Talat Hussein, arrestedGreece cancelled joint military exercises with Israel over its act, and the emergency session of the UNSC has been convened. (pp 1, 9; 1,000 words) Nawa-e Waqt report: President, prime minister express concern over Israeli terrorism; directives given for getting information about Pakistanis (pp 1, 9; 500 words) Report by special correspondent: Israeli aggression on peace convoy; Pakistan seeks US help for recovery of its nationals (pp 1, 9; 200 words) Report by special correspondent: International institutions sho
 uld take notice of homicide by Israel: Nawaz Sharif; Raja Zafarul Haq says most of world powers backing Israel (pp 1, 9; 300 words) ANN report: Pakistanis going to Gaza are safe; all hostages to be released today: Interior Minister Rehman Malik (pp 1, 9; 200 words) Report by special correspondent: Arab League, Muslim countries should get Israel declared as terrorist state: Palestinian ambassador; Gen (retired) Amjad Shoaib says Israeli terrorism test for United States (pp 1, 9; 200 words) Report by Mohammad Amin Fahim: Former military leadership strongly condemns Israeli attack: Gen Aslam Beg, Hamid Gul, Abdul Qayyum says Israeli should seek apology for terrorism (pp 1, 9; 400 words) Report by special correspondent: Rallies, demonstrations continue against blasphemous caricatures; pledge to lay down life for dignity of prophet (pp 1, 9; 400 words) Report by special correspondent: Lahore; firing by terrorists in Jinnah hospital; 12 killed, several injured; those injured in at
 tack on worship place of Ahmadiyya (sect declared non-Muslim) were target (pp 1, 9; 300 words) Nawa-e Waqt report: Hearing on petitions against 18th Amendment; government's objections regarding inclusion of chief justice, constitution of bench turned down (pp 1, 9; 600 words) Nawa-e Waqt report: It is misconduct on part of court; we can send reference against chief justice: government lawyer Abdul Basit (pp 1, 9; 200 words) Report by special correspondent: Indian high commissioner meets Nawaz Sharif; Sharif says talks on all disputes, including Kashmir, imperative (pp 1, 9; 300 words) Report by special correspondent: Dr Aafia Siddiqui has not yet been declared guilty: US ambassador (pp 1, 9; 100 words) Report by special correspondent: High court lifts ban on Facebook; ban to be imposed again if evil act done: Justice Ijaz Chaudhry (pp 1, 9; 200 words) Report by special correspondent: Clashes in Orakzai Agency; 37, including commander, killed (pp 1, 9; 300 words) APP report: 
 Maulana Fazlur Rahman holds telephone talks with Prime Minister Gilani (pp 1, 9; 100 words) Report by special correspondent: Gen Kayani meets Gilani (pp 1, 9; 50 words) SANA report: India rejects Pakistan's objections to construction of two new dams (pp 1, 9; 100 words) Page 2: News From Islamabad, RawalpindiPage 2 has a column in addition to local news and advertisements. Column by Saeed Aasi: This is not recipe for maladyThe column opposes high security for VIPs and no security for places of worship. The interior minister is wrongly diagnosing the malady. There was no such bloodshed in country before 9/11. (600 words) Nawa-e Waqt report: Israeli attack prelude to nuclear war: Shiite leader Hamid Moosvi (pp 3, 10; 200 words) Page 3: National, International ReportsPage three has national and international news. Column by Dr Ajma Niazi: Time for another nuclear testThe column advises rulers to make courageous decision to save the country in the same spirit in which the nation
  conducted nuclear tests. (1,000 words) APP report: NATO launches air strikes on Taliban hideouts in Nooristan province (pp 3, 10; 200 words) Report by special correspondent: Israeli attack tramples down international ethics: Shiite leader Sajid Naqvi (pp 3, 10; 100 words) Page 4: News From Suburbs Column by Shoaib Mirza: Thanks...United States, IsraelThe column lashes out at Israeli attack on relief workers. (400 words) Page 5: Business, Commerce Column by Ahmed Ali Baloch: A review of peoples' governmentThe column discusses the performance of the present government. (1,000 words) Page 6: Continuation of Reports From Other Pages; Advertisements Page 7: Classified Ads Page 8: Continuation of Reports From Other Pages Page 9: Continuation of Reports From Other Pages Page 10: Continuation of Reports From Other Pages Page 11: Sports World Page 12: National, International ReportsProminent pictures on page 12 show journalists demonstrating against Israeli attack on flotilla in Gaz
 a, and Interior Minister Rehman Malik exchanging views with the Sind governor. Report by Sajjad Tirin: Decision to launch action against militants in four south Punjab districtsThe agencies have completed homework for the action. Militant camps exist between Dera Ghazi Khan and Barkhan. (pp 8, 12; 300 words)NNI report: Who is responsible for Lahore terrorism? People to make decision: Governor Punjab (pp 8, 12; 200 words) Nawa-e Waqt report: Journalist organizations across country hold demonstration against Israeli attack; speakers say attack in international waters naked terrorism (pp 8, 12; 400 words) Report by special correspondent: Israeli attack on unarmed people condemnable: Imran Khan, Marvi Memon (pp 8, 12; 300 words) Report by special correspondent: Muslims will have to unite to raise voice against Israel: Talha Mahmud, chairman of senate standing committee on interior (pp 8, 12; 300 words) Nawa-e Waqt report: Contempt of court petition filed against Musharraf, Shauk
 at Aziz, Army chief, governors (pp 8, 12; 200 words) Report by special correspondent: Army-Air forces coordination advancing in right direction: Gen Kayani (pp 8, 12; 200 words) Online report: Secret agencies assisted in recovery of President Zardari's friend Riaz Lalji: Interior minister (pp 8, 12; 300 words) Report by Sultan Sikandar: Visit of Azad (Pakistan-administered) Kashmir president, prime minister to Gilgit-Baltistan being termed as important by political circles (pp 8, 12; 300 words) Report by special correspondent: Punjab cabinet approves power policy, amendment in forest act; takes stock of law-and-order situation (pp 8, 12; 400 words) ANN report: My fans on Facebook want my return to country: Musharraf (pp 8, 12; 200 words) Report by special correspondent: Employees' Old-Age Benefits Institution (EOBI) suffers losses worth 4.8 billion rupees (PRe) because of investment in Bank of Punjab, five other institutions; Public accounts committee expresses indignation (
 pp 8, 12; 400 words) Nawa-e Waqt report: Amendment having impact on independence of judiciary un-Islamic (pp 8, 12; 300 words) Online report: Propagation of Christianity under guise of aid; Afghan Government decides to hold investigation into activities of relief agencies (pp 8, 12; 200 words) Page 13: Children's Page Page 14: Editorial, Lead ArticlesPage 14 has editorials and articles in addition to the regular gossip column "By the way" and regular series of Islamic teachings from the Koran. It also has couplets from Allama Iqbal and Muzaffar Warsi, and a saying of Qaid-i-Azam. Editorial: Israeli piracy off Gaza and US planning to attack Pakistan; has time not come for Muslim community to wake up?The editorial decries Israeli attack on relief convoy on way to Gaza. It is the responsibility of the Islamic countries, their organization, the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC), and Islamic conference to play active role in checking the hand of the United States, India, I
 srael, and shun their traditional negligence. This is time to set up separate Islamic blocks in separate regions to block the way of the forces of evil. (1,200 words) Editorial: Eliminate causes of terrorism firstThe editorial discusses the statement of the interior minister that the terrorists hiding in south Punjab are now coming face to face. The terrorism and suicide attacks on our soil are reaction to the Afghan war and drone attacks. (400 words) Editorial: Conditional restoration of FacebookThe editorial discusses the lifting of ban imposed on Facebook following publication of blasphemous cartoons on Facebook. The decision of the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority is good that Internet traffic will be filtered into Pakistan. (300 words) Article by Dr Anwar Sadeed: US...untrustworthy friend (1,000 words) Article by Mohammad Tariq Chaudhry: Whose blood is this, who died? (1,000 words) Article by Mohammad Izharul Haq: Tales and points inferred from them (1,000 words) Pa
 ge 15: ArticlesPage 15 has articles on national and international issues. Article by Ayesha Masud: 'Mad' governor, 'abnormal' law minister in Punjab (800 words) Article by Prof Mohiuddin: Presence of Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), Mosad, CIA under guise of massacre of Ahmadiyya (last episode) (800 words) Article by Zahid Hassan Chughti: Pakistani mothers, sisters, wives convulsing like fish out of waterThe article discusses the missing of people and plight of their families. (800 words) Page 16: Youth EditionWeekly youth edition is a roundup of educational activities with pictures in the twin cities of Rawalpindi and Islamabad.(Description of Source: Rawalpindi Nawa-e Waqt in Urdu -- Privately owned, widely read, conservative Islamic daily, with circulation around 125,000. Harshly critical of the US and India)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regardin
 g use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalLeaderMilitaryTerrorism,LEGAL,INTERNATIONAL ISSUES,GOVERNMENT,REGULATIONIP
City: Rawalpindi
Geographic Code: PAK,ISR,USA,IND
Geographic Name: Pakistan,Israel,United States,India,Asia,Middle East,Americas,South Asia,North Americas,WESTERN ASIA,AMERICAS,USA,AFGHANISTAN,INDIAN SUBCONTINENT,SOUTHERN ASIA,INDIA,PALESTINE,ISRAEL,PAKISTAN,MEDITERRANEAN,NORTH AMERICA,ASIA,MIDDLE EASTIP
Region: Asia,Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T10:09:23Z --------------------
Title: Report by staff correspondent: "Hezb rejects consultative peace jirgas as useless"
Journal: The News Online
Text:
PESHAWAR: Hezb-e-Islami led by Gulbaddin Hekmatyar has termed consultative peace jirga scheduled to be held in the next few days in Kabul as a useless exercise saying that only government's hand-picked people have been invited to the assembly. An Afghan Islamic Press dispatch from Kabul Monday quoted the Hezb-e-Islami as having said that: "Karzai's consultative peace jirga has no importance as government's hand-picked people are gathering in it. It has no power of decision and is the sole consultative jirga not being attended by the Mujahideen." "The Americans haven't empowered the jirga to take decisions on the withdrawal of troops and other crises that represent the wishes of the Afghan nation and guarantee our national interest," it said.(Description of Source: Islamabad The News Online in English -- Website of a widely read, influential English daily, member of the Jang publishing group. Neutral editorial policy, good coverage of domestic and international issues. Usually
  offers leading news and analysis on issues related to war against terrorism. Circulation estimated at 55,000; URL: http://www.thenews.com.pk/)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalTerrorism
City: Islamabad
Geographic Code: PAK,AFG,USA
Geographic Name: Pakistan,Afghanistan,United States,Asia,Americas,South Asia,North Americas,AFGHANISTAN,PAKISTAN,INDIAN SUBCONTINENT,SOUTHERN ASIA,WESTERN ASIA,ASIAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T08:10:41Z --------------------
Title: Pakistan Article: Fate of Kandahar, NWA Offensives To Depend on Public Support
Journal: The News Online
Text:
Tuesday, June 01, 2010For sometime now, there has been talk about two major offensives in the coming weeks and months against the Taliban and other militants across the Pakistani-Afghan border. One in Kandahar, in southeastern Afghanistan by the US-led Nato forces, the other in North Waziristan by the Pakistani military. The two campaigns apparently aren't linked, but their outcome could determine the course of the conflict in the region.As usual, the US military commanders would prefer coordinated offensives by the Nato forces and Pakistani army on both sides of the Durand Line around the same time, in a bid to squeeze the militants out and stop their cross-border infiltration and escape. During its past military campaigns, including the one in Tora Bora against Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda fighters and the Afghan Taliban in December 2001, the Pentagon has been urging the Pakistani military command to try and seal the border to prevent the militants' escape. This hasn't been e
 asy in view of the long and porous border. Like Pakistan's security forces, Nato and Afghan troops too have been unable to fully check cross-border infiltration of militants. In fact, Pakistan's military authorities have been highlighting the fact that they set up many more border posts compared to the US-led coalition forces, and that the Americans dismantled some of their outposts in Afghan territory just when the Pakistani army undertook major offensives in Bajaur, Mohmand and South Waziristan.The US and Nato military commanders would be satisfied if the Pakistani military finally agrees to move against all militants, both local and foreign and, in particular, the Haqqani network, in North Waziristan. And they would be happy if this offensive was timed to coincide with their own military campaign against the Afghan Taliban in Kandahar. The Pakistanis, though, may decide to partially oblige the Americans by choosing their own timing for undertaking any action in North Wazi
 ristan and being selective in their approach in going against their targets in this tribal region.If they are undertaken, the two battles will be fought on different terrains. Kandahar is largely flat, with fertile agricultural land dotted with low hills and a harsh desert. North Waziristan is mostly mountainous. The populations in both places are overwhelmingly Pakhtun, the ethnic group to which the Taliban belong. There could be some urban warfare in Kandahar, which is inhabited by around a million people, and classic guerrilla-style attacks in rural Arghandab, Zhari and Panjwai districts encircling the city, with their orchards of apples, pomegranates and grapes. In North Waziristan, the major population centres of Miramshah, Mir Ali and Dattakhel would have to be controlled to defend the military posts and supply lines.The US and Nato military commanders have been publicly talking about the Kandahar offensive and have even indicated its timeline. It was to begin around J
 une and end in August before the onset of Ramazan. Any delay in launching the military campaign or altering its objectives would be due to the reported differences between the US and Hamid Karzai, the beleaguered Afghan president who is sensitive about the military operation's fallout in his native province. Any sensible politician would be concerned if military action largely depended on the use of airpower, displaced people and caused unusually high numbers of civilian casualties.The Kandahar campaign could drag on beyond August and still remain inconclusive. It could be a repeat of the recent military campaign in the small town of Marjah in the adjoining Helmand province, where the offensive by 15,000 Nato and Afghan forces against a few hundred Taliban fighters took longer than anticipated and was unable to accomplish its goals. Skilful at manipulating the media, the US army was able to sell the idea that, as the first test of President Barack Obama's new Afghan strategy
  based on the troops surge, the Marjah offensive would turn the situation around. In the words of Nato military commander in Afghanistan Gen Stanley McChrystal, it would halt the Taliban momentum. This didn't happen, with even the largely supportive American media now reporting that Taliban guerrillas are back in Marjah and the population is still unwilling to switch sides in favour of the government. The Western media described Marjah as a "city" and the hit-and-run Taliban attacks there were mentioned as a major battle. This was obviously done to exaggerate the challenge at hand in Marjah and present it as a major military campaign against a formidable enemy. If Marjah was such a difficult battle, one can imagine the much bigger challenge posed by Kandahar.And now the looming battle in Kandahar is being referred to as a make-or-break struggle. The goalposts are being changed to suit the political objectives of the offensive. The American and Afghan military commanders and 
 politicians are struggling to find a suitable word to describe the Kandahar offensive due to the widespread public opposition to the military operation. Terms like "offensive," "military operation," "action" and "battle" are no longer being used. President Karzai, who unsuccessfully tried to win support for the offensive a couple of months ago by undertaking a rare visit to Kandahar and addressing skeptical tribal elders, has now settled on the term "process" to explain the coming military campaign. The US authorities are now increasingly calling it "Hamkari Baraye Kandahar," a Dari Persian term meaning "Cooperation for Kandahar." It is not the first time that a non-Pashto term is being used in the Pakhtun-populated southern Afghanistan. It is insensitive, but it seems the Americans haven't grasped the cultural sensitivities inherent in multi-ethnic Afghanistan even eight-and-a-half years after invading the country.In Pakistan, selecting a name for the likely North Wazirista
 n offensive won't pose any problem. The military has been choosing names of its operations without any input from the government or the politicians, who are largely unaware of the details and complications of the army's strategies. Pashto names were chosen for the military campaigns in Khyber Agency while Urdu terms such as Rah-e-Raast, Rah-e-Haq and Rah-e-Nijat were selected for the offensives in Swat and South Waziristan.Names are important, but the strategy adopted to win the military campaigns in North Waziristan and Kandahar and minimise the suffering of the people would be far more crucial. The US military authorities reiterate after every incident in which civilians are killed and injured that they would be more careful the next time in pursuing strategic objectives as their policy centred on protecting the Afghan population against Taliban militants. Hillary Clinton and other US officials have made it clear that lessons from Fallujah, which was destroyed by the US mi
 litary in Iraq, have been learnt and that Kandahar won't be meted out the same treatment. However, the reality will become known once the Kandahar offensive is undertaken and, in case of failure, the way the US-led coalition forces vent their anger and frustration.In case of North Waziristan, the Pakistani security forces could follow the Swat and South Waziristan models in which towns and villages are emptied of the population, every known militant target is bombed and shelled, and vantage points are occupied to allow for the ground forces to move in and take control. This strategy certainly minimises civilian deaths and isolates the militants. But the damage to infrastructure and properties is substantial and the displacement of population causes suffering and creates additional challenges in the repatriation and rehabilitation of the displaced persons.The US and Pakistani military commanders will be trying their own strategies in dealing with the challenges in Kandahar an
 d North Waziristan. The fate of their campaigns will largely depend on public support in the areas of their operations. The Pakistani military would be better placed in this respect as it would be operating among its own people unlike the Nato forces fighting in an alien country and generally hostile population.The writer is resident editor of The News in Peshawar.(Description of Source: Islamabad The News Online in English -- Website of a widely read, influential English daily, member of the Jang publishing group. Neutral editorial policy, good coverage of domestic and international issues. Usually offers leading news and analysis on issues related to war against terrorism. Circulation estimated at 55,000; URL: http://www.thenews.com.pk/)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalLeaderTerrorism,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONSIP
City: Islamabad
Geographic Code: AFG,IRQ,PAK,USA
Geographic Name: Afghanistan,Iraq,Pakistan,United States,Asia,Middle East,Americas,South Asia,North Americas,PAKISTAN,WESTERN ASIA,ASIA,AFGHANISTAN,SOUTHERN ASIA,INDIAN SUBCONTINENT,NATOIP
Region: Asia,Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T06:53:15Z --------------------
Title: Editorial Urges Pakistan To Remove Bases Promoting Terror To Stop US Threats
Journal: The News Online
Text:
Tuesday, June 01, 2010The pressure is on Islamabad again after just a few months of relative respite. Pentagon officials have been quoted as saying that a unilateral strike on Pakistan could be considered if a terrorist attack on US soil is linked back to it. The plan is not a new one, but it had been put on the backburner until Faisal Shahzad's unfortunate actions at Times Square. Meanwhile, Pakistan is being pushed to make a foray into North Waziristan with US military officials nudging decision-makers firmly forward while offering whatever cooperation is required. The comments and events we are seeing do not quite mesh with the new, 52-page document on its strategy on terror unveiled last week by the Obama administration. The document stressed scrapping the Bush administration's doctrine on terror and stated that the use of US military power as a means to combat terror would give way to more emphasis on diplomacy and the building of broad partnerships. The change in the US
  position brought a sigh of relief in many places.The division of the world into camps, with Muslims in many places fervently opposed to the US and its strategies, is of course a direct consequence of its conquest of Afghanistan and Iraq. Many Pakistanis believe it remains in charge in Islamabad too. This notion needs to change. With Washington talking recently of doing more to support development in Pakistan rather than retain focus on the issue of militancy alone, there had been some hope of a movement in that direction. The announcement of the new policy document by the secretary of state indicated that such offers were backed by a wider change in thinking. But the more recent comments from Washington indicate that terrorism remains an issue that continues to dominate thinking. Islamabad needs to engage in some serious thinking on the issue. It must determine what it can do to remove from its territory the bases that promote terror. There is no denying the fact that these
  exist. Militants captured in Lahore following the attack on Ahmedi places of worship have again pointed fingers in the direction of North Waziristan as the place where they were trained. Centres exist too in other places. We need to ensure that the US never considers the action it has threatened by targeting them ourselves. More than anything else, it is such action that would send out the clearest signal to people everywhere of Pakistan's determination to protect its own sovereignty. This is something we need to lay out before Washington as well as our own people. Threats are not acceptable. But to stop them we must demonstrate that we are ourselves capable of taking on militants and that we possess both the means and the fortitude to do so for the sake of the citizens of our own country who have fallen in their thousands to terrorists.(Description of Source: Islamabad The News Online in English -- Website of a widely read, influential English daily, member of the Jang pub
 lishing group. Neutral editorial policy, good coverage of domestic and international issues. Usually offers leading news and analysis on issues related to war against terrorism. Circulation estimated at 55,000; URL: http://www.thenews.com.pk/)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalTerrorism
City: Islamabad
Geographic Code: AFG,IRQ,PAK,USA
Geographic Name: Afghanistan,Iraq,Pakistan,United States,Asia,Middle East,Americas,South Asia,North Americas,PAKISTAN,INDIAN SUBCONTINENT,SOUTHERN ASIA,WESTERN ASIA,ASIAIP
Region: Asia,Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Sunday May 2, 2010 T20:04:42Z --------------------
Title: Top US commanders visit Kandahar Province in Afghan south
Journal: Kandahar TV
Text:
Text of report by provincial state-owned Afghan Kandahar TV on 30 AprilUS General David Petraeus, accompanied by other US military commanders and diplomats, paid a visit to Kandahar to meet local officials. He said a large number of US troops would arrive in Kandahar for the imminent operation in the province.High-ranking US commanders paid a visit to Kandahar Province on Friday (30 April) and said security situation would improve in Kandahar Province as the number of Afghan and ISAF forces increased. The group of commanders was led by top US commander in Asia General David Petraeus.General David Petraeus, accompanied by top US commander in Afghanistan General Stanley McChrystal, United States Ambassador to Afghanistan Karl Eikenberry and top US commander in southwestern zone of the country General Carter, met Kandahar Governor Turialay Wisa.After the meeting with the governor they talked to reporters at a press conference.General David Petraeus said the main purpose of the v
 isit was to make efforts to control security situation in Kandahar and create a peaceful environment for inhabitants of Kandahar so that they can have a peaceful life.General David Petraeus said the international community and Afghan government were paying serious attention to Kandahar as it was more important for them than for the opponents.He said a large number of the coalition forces had been already deployed to Kandahar and the deployment of more coalition forces would continue.General David Petraeus said a brigade of Afghan National Army and three battalions of Afghan police would be deployed to Kandahar as well.General David Petraeus said the imminent operation in Kandahar would be different from other operations and operations would be carried out on chosen targets and efforts would be made to avoid face-to-face fighting with the opponents in very populated residential areas in order to avoid civilian's casualties.He did not give further details of date and time of t
 he operation and the number of troops involved in the operation.General David Petraeus said despite the violent attacks in Kandahar recently, Afghan National Army, Afghan Police, Afghan Intelligence Department and the US-led coalition forces would create an environment for better governance, reconstruction and development in Kandahar city and the nearby regions.Kandahar Governor Turialay Wisa said the visit of the high-ranking commander to Kandahar was a positive development and Kandahar was on its way towards development and security and was going to be okay very soon and a big change would come.The commanders and Kandahar Governor Turialay Wisa paid visits to some districts and some areas in Kandahar city and assured inhabitants of Kandahar that security would improve in Kandahar and there would be a lot of development and reconstruction activities.They said the role of the people was important in all those objectives.(Description of Source: Kandahar Kandahar TV in Pashto 
 -- controlled by authorities in Kandahar and broadcasts only within the province)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalTerrorism,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Kandahar
Geographic Code: AFG,USA
Geographic Name: Afghanistan,United States,Asia,Americas,South Asia,North Americas,AFGHANISTAN,WESTERN ASIA,ASIAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Sunday May 2, 2010 T08:59:13Z --------------------
Title: US general says more troops for Afghanistan's Kandahar for better security
Journal: Arzu TV
Text:
securityText of report by privately-owned Afghan Arzu TV on 1 MayISAF officials in Kandahar Province (in southern Afghanistan) say that they have intensified their activities to maintain security in the province.The head of the US Central Command, Gen David Petraeus, said during his visit to Kandahar yesterday that additional Afghan and US troops would be deployed in Kandahar Province. The senior US military official announces deployment of additional security measures at a time when foreign military officials based in Afghanistan report a large-scale military operation in this province.(Correspondent) The head of the US Central Command for Central Asia and the Middle East, Gen David Petraeus, accompanied by the US ambassador in Kabul, Gen Eikenberry, visited Kandahar yesterday to asses the security situation in the province. Following a meeting with provincial officials he told journalists that besides security measures taken by Afghan security forces for Kandahar, internati
 onal forces have also a special measure in place for the province. Gen David Petraeus said that deployment of fresh US troops to the province was part of the measure for Kandahar Province.(The head of the US Central Command, Gen David Petraeus, in English, superimposed with Pashto translation, captioned) The number of coalition forces has been increased and the process has not ended yet and the number of coalition forces has been increasing. We are trying to ensure security in Afghanistan, especially in Kandahar, and Kandahar is important for the enemy as well. The enemy is also trying to prove their presence there.(Correspondent) The head of the US Central Command added that besides the NATO troop surge, it had been decided that a new military brigade of the Afghan National Army and three police units would be set up to improve security in the province.Talking about the forthcoming operation in Kandahar, he said that this operation would be different from the one conducted 
 in Marja District (in southern Helmand Province).(Description of Source: Mazar-e Sharif Arzu TV in Dari -- privately-owned television station launched in 2007 by Kamal Nabizada who is said to have good ties with Balkh provincial governor Atta Mohammad Nur.)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalMilitary,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Mazar-e Sharif
Geographic Code: AFG,USA
Geographic Name: Afghanistan,United States,Asia,Americas,South Asia,North Americas,AFGHANISTAN,WESTERN ASIA,ASIAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Sunday May 2, 2010 T04:38:05Z --------------------
Title: Afghan president condemns foreign operation targeting MP's house
Journal: National TV Afghanistan
Text:
houseText of report by state-owned National Afghanistan TV on 1 MayThe president of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, Hamed Karzai, has said houses belonging to MPs are immune and condemned the arbitrary and uncoordinated operation targeting MP Safia Sediqi's house by the coalition forces. He also expressed profound condolence over the killing of a member of the Sediqi family during the operation.The international coalition forces searched Sediqi's house Wednesday night (28 April) in the Nazarabad village of Sorkhrod District of (eastern) Nangarhar Province, killing a member of MP Safia Sediqi's family. The president was deeply saddened by the incident. He has always called on the foreign forces to take great care during military operations.The president extended his profound condolence to the MP's family and residents of Sorkhrod District.(Description of Source: Kabul National TV Afghanistan in Dari -- state-run television)Material in the World News Connection is generall
 y copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalTerrorismLeader
City: Kabul
Geographic Code: AFG,USA
Geographic Name: Afghanistan,United States,Asia,Americas,South Asia,North Americas,AFGHANISTAN,WESTERN ASIA,ASIAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Saturday August 22, 2009 T16:48:30Z --------------------
Title: Two US-based think tanks allege flaws in Afghan poll process
Journal: Pajhwok Afghan News
Text:
Text of report in English by Afghan independent Pajhwok news agency websiteKabul: Several election observation missions have hailed the conduct of presidential and provincial council elections as a victory for Afghans against those who wanted to prevent the people from deciding their future.However, the observers also noted serious problems in the process and stressed the need for addressing them to ensure the credibility of future polls. The International Republican Institute (IRI) referred to the difficult security environment.The European Union Election Observation Mission (EU EOM) lauded the courage of the Afghans who turned out to vote, defying intimidation and threats. The mission said it observed all aspects of the process around the country for the past two months."Despite operational shortcomings and some institutional flaws, the Independent Election Commission (IEC) generally functioned efficiently, adhering to its tight timeline in implementing electoral operations
 ," the mission said.But the International Republican Institute (IRI) alleged state resources were used during the campaign despite legal prohibitions, it alleged, saying the state-run media did not provide balanced coverage of the presidential race, heavily favouring the incumbent.Such issues as lower turnout, fraud and abuse of state resources brought the elections to a lower standard than the 2004 and 2005 Afghan votes observed by IRI. "But given Afghanistan's circumstances, the process so far has been credible."The IRI said there were credible reports that voter registration cards were sold. "Combined with the lack of a voter list, this raises concerns about multiple voting, which would subvert the process."While it was difficult to determine how widespread the practice was, the Institute said, the magnitude of such reports of fraud warrants investigation. It urged the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) and the IEC to address the issues before the next election.Nationa
 l Democratic Institute (NDI) delegates tentatively announced their thoughts on the election process, without commenting on the results or the turnout. NDI said it focused most of its presentation on recommendations that could be implemented in future to avoid flawed elections in the years to come.NDI delegates included former Canadian foreign affairs minister John Manley, then US senator Gary Hart and ex-Irish minister of justice Nora Owen."Both an Afghan census, and a voters registry for the 2010 election and that preparations should start immediately for the next election, including continued training of electoral workers to ensure continuity of educated election manpower.""Aspects of the 2009 elections were in accordance with democratic principles," the NDI said, adding: "The elections, however, also involved serious flaws that must be addressed in order to build greater confidence in the integrity of future elections."Noting that the 2009 polls were the country's first t
 o be organised primarily by Afghan institutions, NDI said: "Afghanistan's political system is more competitive at every level than many have believed."Overall, the delegation believed, "much work is needed to improve the electoral administration." A lax registration process led to multiple registrations and registration of ineligible voters, which "increases the potential for fraud and other types of misconduct and could erode the Afghan people's confidence in the integrity of the electoral process and in the institutions that emerge from the polls."It also noted misuse of state resources and proxy voting in some areas. The organisation warned it could adversely affect the credibility of the elections. "While IEC performed many of its responsibilities well, its credibility depends not only on its actions but on the public's perception of its impartiality," NDI said.(Description of Source: Kabul Pajhwok Afghan News in English -- independent news agency)Material in the World N
 ews Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational Political,GOVERNMENT,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRSIP
City: Kabul
Geographic Code: AFG,USA
Geographic Name: Afghanistan,United States,Asia,Americas,South Asia,North Americas,AFGHANISTAN,WESTERN ASIA,ASIAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday August 11, 2009 T11:42:12Z --------------------
Title: To request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
Journal: Nawa-e Waqt
Text:
Prominent pictures on page 1 show Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani talking to schoolgirls in Swat, Canadian minister for international cooperation meeting President Asif Zardari, and Chaudhry Aslam (lawyer) presenting application at police station secretariat for registration of case against General Pervez Muhsarraf. The lower half of the page has a quarter-page advertisement. Lead Story: Report by special correspondent: Orders given to register case against Musharraf for keeping over 60 judges under detentionThe session judge Islamabad ordered registration of case after applicant prayed that police was not registering case against the former president. (pp 1, 6; 300 words) Report by special correspondent: Prime Minister Gilani, Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif hold one-on-one meeting; views exchanged on political situation; Sharif says federal government should try Musharraf on charges of treason (pp 1, 6; 200 words) Bureau report: Nation united against terrorism: Shahb
 az Sharif; North West Frontier Province (NWFP) chief minister says we'll offer every sacrifice for country's integrity (pp 1, 6; 400 words) Report from monitoring desk: I, Baitullah Mehsud safe and sound: Hakimullah Mehsud; there is no dispute between Waliur Rahman, me (pp 1, 6; 100 words) Report by special correspondent: Baitullah Mehsud killed on 6 August night: Interior Minister Rehman Malik (pp 1, 6; 200 words) AFP report: Attack on military convoy in North Waziristan; five militants killed in counter attack; three personnel injured (pp 1, 6; 200 words) Online report: Prime minister, General Kayani, Shahbaz Sharif visit Swat; Gilani says terrorists did not want Islamic justice system; they had some other agenda (pp 1, 6; 600 words) INP report: Top Al-Qa'ida leaders shifted to cities because of drone attacks: CIA (pp 1, 6; 200 words) Report by special correspondent: Attempts to launch suicide attacks on important building including parliament foiled: Rehman Malik; 38 terr
 orists arrested; they include four or five suicide bombers (pp 1, 6; 200 words) Report by special correspondent: Present government becomes 'short cut': Leader of opposition Chaudhry Nisar; haste being shown in legislation; why interior minister silent over insult of police officer at hands of US official; terrorism will not come to end with death of one or two terrorists (pp 1, 6; 300 words) Report by Qazi Bilal: Heated debate on corruption (pp 1, 6; 100 words) Report from monitoring desk: Firing, riots over killing of Rahman Dakait in Karachi (pp 1, 6; 300 words) Report by special correspondent: Court order waited for registration of case against Musharraf; lawyers' legal team arrives at police station secretariat (pp 1, 6; 300 words) Nawa-e Waqt report: Government cannot take action against Pervez Musharraf: Qazi Hussein Ahmed; the United States wants to deprive Pakistan of its nuclear capability (pp 1, 6; 100 words) Report from monitoring desk: Qaid-e-Azam did not want s
 ecular Pakistan but laboratory of Islam: Nawa-e Waqt chief Majid Nizami; Pakistan should be Islamic democratic welfare state; we should get rid of US slavery (pp 1, 6; 300 words) Report by special correspondent: Removal of former Army chief Jehangir Karamat was Nawaz Sharif's blunder: former foreign minister Sartaj Aziz; attack on Supreme Court (during Nawaz Sharif period) was most shameful chapter in our history (pp 1, 6; 300 words) APP report: Kashmiri leadership will be taken into confidence on Kashmir issue: Foreign Minister Qureshi (pp 1, 6; 200 words) ANN report: People unhappy over power crisis; delay in completion of private power projects will not be tolerated: President Zardari (pp 1, 6; 200 words) AFP report: Taliban get upper hand in Afghan war: US commander admits (pp 1, 6; 100 words) Online report: Elimination of terrorism from Pakistan to be ensured: the United States (pp 1, 6; 100 words) Report by special correspondent: Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences 
 has not yet provided postmortem report of former Foreign Secretary Niaz Naik to police (pp 1, 6; 100 words) Page 2: News From Islamabad, RawalpindiPage 2 has a column besides local news and advertisements. Column by Aftab Iqbal: Our sympathies with governmentThe column opines that the government has entered into a blind alley. (800 words) Page 3: National, International ReportsPage 3 has national and international news. Online report: Afghanistan; suicide car bomb attack on NATO forces in Kunduz Province; disclosure made about FM radio stations of Taliban (p 3; 200 words) Page 4: News From Suburbs Page 5: Classified Ads; Continuation of Reports From Other Pages Page 6: Continuation of Reports From Other Pages APP report: Musharraf kept Naval, Air Force chiefs unaware of Kargil operation; only light weapons provided to soldiers, no provided any air cover; commission should be set up to fix responsibility: Brigadier (retired) Imtiaz (p 3; 300 words) Page 7: Sports World Page 8
 : National, International ReportsThree-fourths of the page is covered by advertisements. Report by Sajjad Tirin: Nature of fight between Musharraf, Nawaz Sharif is personal: Pakistan People's Party (PPP)The ruling party said it would not take any action if the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) fails to table resolution in assembly. (pp 5, 8; 200 words) Report by special correspondent: There is pseudo feud on Musharraf's trial: Jamaat-e-Islami leader Liaqat Baloch; political crisis deepening because of personal interests of PPP, PML-N (pp 5, 8; 200 words) Report by special correspondent: Taliban will continue to respond until drone attacks continue: Jamaat-e-Islami chief Munawar Hasan; turmoil not to be over until US, NATO forces present in Afghanistan; Turkistan says the United States, India, Israel were giving money to Baitullah Mehsud (pp 5, 8; 200 words) Report by special correspondent: Government should take concrete steps to stop Indian interference: MP Marvi Memon (
 pp 6, 8; 200 words) Nawa-e Waqt report: Supreme Court dismisses police report about kidnapping of transporter supplying fuel to NATO forces (pp 6, 8; 50 words) Report by special correspondent: Australian air chief meets Pakistani counterpart (pp 6, 8; 50 words) Report by special correspondent: 'Nuclear energy deal;' Pakistan is more suitable than India; Pakistan more advanced than India in nuclear energy field: Ansar Pervez, Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission chief (pp 5, 8; 300 words) APP report: Drug case; Senate standing committee asks Saudi Arabia to release detained Pakistani family; Interior minister says delegation to be sent to Saudi Arabia to stop trial (pp 6, 8; 300 words) Report by special correspondent: Canadian minister, British high commissioner, PPP Baluchistan chief meet interior minister (pp 6, 8; 100 words) Nawa-e Waqt report: Return of former Punjab bank chief Hamaish Khan; Supreme Court gives 10 days time; deputy attorney general says we've contacted Inter
 pol, written to US Administration (pp 5, 8; 200 words) Page 9: Feature Reports Report by Ghulam Ahmed Pervez: Qaid-e-Azam and two-nation theory (2,000 words) Page 10: Editorial, Lead ArticlesPage 10 has editorials and articles besides the regular gossip column "By the way" and regular series of Islamic teachings from the Koran. It also has couplets from Allama Iqbal and Muzaffar Warsi, and a saying of Qaid-i-Azam. Editorial: Action against Pervez Musharraf; Nawaz Sharif's demand and government's vacillationThe editorial discusses statement of Nawaz Sharif that no resolution of parliament is required to try Pervez Musharraf in the wake of Supreme Court judgment. Despite announcements, the president and the prime minister are evading action against the former military ruler. It is in the interest of the government to accept public demand and should not let impression strengthen that it is evading action because of the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO). (800 words) Editor
 ial: Realistic statement of Foreign Office spokesmanThe editorial discusses news briefing of foreign office spokesperson in which he said that India may further expand its nuclear program because of United States-India nuclear agreement and that India-Israel collusion is a threat for the regional security. (300 words) Editorial: Depletion of underground water resourcesThe editorial discusses report of Pakistan water resource research council that level of underground water in country has gone down to record low posing a threat of drought. (300 words) Editorial: Holy month of fasting and tide of price hikeThe editorial deplores price hike ahead of the holy month of fasting. (400 words) Article by Dr Saeed Ahmed Malik: India's strategy (last episode) (800 words) Article by Samiullah Qureshi: Taliban, Islam, and Pakistan (600 words) Article by Mohammad Tariq Chaudhry: Quits any time (part-I)The article discusses rumors about the ouster of the present government. (400 words) Pag
 e 11: ArticlesPage 11 has articles on national and international issues. Article by Khizra Ambrin: Terrorism....West's conspiracy against Islam (400 words) Article by Fazal Hussein Awan: Great game...and today's Afghanistan (600 words) Article by Nawaz Raza: 'Refugee' of BhopalThe article discusses plight of nuclear scientist Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan. (800 words) Page 12: Youth EditionWeekly youth edition is a roundup of educational activities with pictures in the twin cities of Rawalpindi and Islamabad.(Description of Source: Rawalpindi Nawa-e Waqt in Urdu -- Privately owned, widely read, conservative Islamic daily, with circulation around 125,000. Harshly critical of the US and India)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalLeaderMilitaryTerrorism,LEGAL,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Rawalpindi
Geographic Code: PAK,IND,USA,AFG
Geographic Name: Pakistan,India,United States,Afghanistan,Asia,Americas,South Asia,North Americas,PAKISTAN,WESTERN ASIA,NORTH AMERICA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,AFGHANISTAN,SAUDI ARABIA,CANADA,MIDDLE EAST,ARAB STATES,INDIAN SUBCONTINENT,SOUTHERN ASIA,GULF STATES,INDIA,NATOIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Thursday June 18, 2009 T06:05:23Z --------------------
Title: Article by Nasim Zehra: Mohmand  where proactive military measures worked
Journal: The News Online
Text:
Beginning last August, Mohmand Agency, the third-largest of Pakistan's seven agencies and closest to Peshawar, has seen the Taliban retreat and experiences relative peace and calm. Three factors have contributed to this: a proactive military offensive against the Taliban, the relative revival of the original system of Maliks and setting up of permanent Frontier Corps pickets that dot the roads and mountaintops for secure travel.The agency has a population of around half a million and is bordered on the north by Bajaur, on the east by Malakand and Charsadda, and on the west by the Afghan provinces of Kunar and Nangharhar. More importantly, it is a crucial link between Bajaur and Waziristan and provides the main inter-agency logistical movement. From Peshawar the agency also provides the shortest route to Bajaur. Until August the TTP had a stronghold on the area preventing virtually no movements by the law enforcement agencies the whole year. Attacks on the Mohmand Rifles convo
 ys took place regularly and the force had no road access to law enforcement agencies in Muhmadghat and all the eastern valleys. The TTP had even set up four Sharia courts - in Michni, Dawazai and Khawazaj areas close to the Afghan border.The TTP headquarters was based in Kadharo with training camps, prison cells, and so on. The agency acquired special significance after the Lal Masjid operation in 2007 when the supporters of the Lal Masjid clerics went and settled in Kandharo and began planning to avenge the operation on the mosque and it was a result of this that training began there for suicide bombers. In Kandharo, an otherwise small hamlet, the Taliban, led by Abdul Wali, set up their main base. It was also there that they declared the existence of an alternate Lal Masjid, which was set up in a mosque adjacent to the Hajisahib Tarangazis shrine. It is this mosque which the Taliban turned into their base and on a huge wall are names of the Taliban who were killed during t
 he Lal Masjid operation Come August of 2008 and a policy decision was taken by the FC to adopt a proactive law enforcement policy. This included visibility of troops by establishing FC pickets at strategic heights and aided by heavier weapons, extensive and aggressive fire on TTP hideouts and demarcating defensive zones. The Mohmand Rifles adopted a policy of confrontation, forcing the TTP into a reactive mode from a proactive one. This won the Rifles the confidence of the local people who till then were at best indifferent to the TTP activities and at worst its supporters.This strategy focused on going after the Taliban commanders proactively and essentially taking the war to their strongholds. That is what seems to have paid off. It has put the Taliban commanders on the defensive, restricted their movement and provided confidence to the local population. Their camps have been dismantled, and instead of just clearing the roads the Mohmand Scouts have gone into their inner s
 anctuaries. In the post-operation phase effort has been made to revive the old centres of political administration. Compared to other agencies the local politico-military unit has opted for reviving the old Malik system and the office of the political agent has also been now revived. However, the Taliban presence, though much whittled down, remains in the agency. They are active on the intelligence front. For example, regular intercepts by FC intelligence indicates that the information of convoy movements is picked up - as was the case of the convoy that carried media representatives recently to the area. Clandestine Taliban movements also continue. For example, there was intelligence that on May 26 around 200 Uzbeks entered the Suran valley - bordering Kunar on the other side of the border. Two of the men were shot dead and a Motorola walkie-talkie was found in their pockets and a slip of paper with a message saying that 60 Waziris had returned and two others would return s
 oon. They were trying to get information about the Wing Four camps of the Mohmand Scouts. Earlier the same day, two others were caught red-handed placing IEDs on the main Mohmand-Bajaur road. The following day, May 27, three Talibs came to a tailor's shop in Muhammadghat. On getting information Mohmand Rifles troops arrived, but two Talibs escaped on a motorcycle. The one apprehended said he was from Dir and had travelled from Suran.The people have gone through a changing mode of interaction with the Taliban. Initially they found the Taliban harmless. They adopted a coexistence approach towards the Taliban initially. The Taliban asked them to say their prayers in the mosque, they offered to provide them protection, to pray for Allah's blessings. But subsequently the Taliban demanded that these people make financial contributions. They set up Qazi courts for dispensing quick "justice." The Operation has brought destruction but it certainly does bring peace and security in the
  region. Support for the Taliban came mostly from Waziristan and Afghanistan. There were few local supporters. However, after last year when the military began its Operation against the local Taliban it has earned a degree of credibility vis-a-vis the Taliban. For example, in the end of April Khan Gul from Kamanjee, a village near Kandharo, had sent his wife to the local FC post for help. Khan's house was surrounded by the Taliban. They came to the door and demanded he join their force but he refused. According to Khan the fighting continued for hours against the Taliban until he slipped away his wife to the local post for help. The Taliban fled as FC soldiers arrived.While Mohmand agency presents a relatively positive picture of security, there are bazaars, administrative buildings, hospitals and schools which stand razed to the ground. Also, sections of the despondent and dejected population are reminders of the high cost paid for re-establishment of the writ of the state.
  The army is present but local residents have yet to return to their normal life. There is also concern among local people about the presence of tanks in their villages, but the army says that the tanks are a deterrent against the return of the Taliban - who are still in the surrounding mountains.Another abiding challenge area in Mohmand agency is the Suran valley area. Above it, on the Pakistani Goraprai and Shoncrai posts, there is no US or Afghan presence on the other side of the border. In around mid-May, after repeated complaints by Pakistanis, about 60 American troops did base themselves opposite Pakistani posts. On the sixth day the Taliban attacked them, leaving dead three soldiers and then the US forces withdrew. Hence, the area is again unmanned and Afghan and non-Afghan movement left unchecked. This Suran valley route remains the most frequented route for infiltrators. For example, on June 3 200 Uzbeks and Chechens reportedly crossed over from Afghanistan towards 
 Suran valley. Most Taliban movement takes place from the Afghan valleys of Kunar and Nangarhar areas and Afghans, Uzbeks and Arabs cross over to the Suran valley, which is situated close to the Mohammadghat post, the last agency post. By all accounts these infiltrators either move towards the Ghanamshah area in Mohmand or towards Bajaur, Swat and Buner.Clearly, neither has Pakistan been able to ensure that the American and Afghan forces are preventing the infiltration and nor do the Pakistanis have the Pakistan believe launching an operation in the Suran valley will prevent the flow of infiltrators. It is the inflow of the infiltrators that need to be blocked. Yet the Tripartite border commission mandated to manage Pakistan-Afghan border affairs continues to overlook its mandate -- at a high cost to Pakistan.The writer is an Islamabad-based security analyst Email: nasimzehra@ hotmail.com(Description of Source: Islamabad The News Online in English -- Website of the widely rea
 d, influential English daily, member of the Jang publishing group. Neutral editorial policy, good coverage of domestic and international issues. Hardcopy circulation estimated at 55,000; URL: http://www.thenews.com.pk)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalTerrorism,LEGALIP
City: Islamabad
Geographic Code: PAK,AFG,USA
Geographic Name: Pakistan,Afghanistan,United States,Asia,Americas,South Asia,North Americas,AFGHANISTAN,PAKISTAN,INDIAN SUBCONTINENT,SOUTHERN ASIA,WESTERN ASIA,ASIAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T15:26:59Z --------------------
Title: Highlights: Argentina Political and Economic Issues 1 Jun 10
Journal: Argentina - OSC Summary
Text:
- Buenos Aires Foreign Ministry website reports on 31 May that the government "condemns" the Israeli attack on Turkish flagged "Fleet of Freedom" in international waters,  "profoundly regrets" the lives lost, requests a "complete and exhaustive investigation," and makes an "energetic call for the immediate end of the acts of violence that aggravate the situation in the Mid East and for the raising of the blockade on the population of Gaza, permitting the free circulation of persons and the entry of humanitarian aid to the region." (Buenos Aires Argentine Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Foreign Trade, and Worship in Spanish -- Official website of the Argentine Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Foreign Trade, and Worship; URL:http://www.mrecic.gov.ar/ http://www.mrecic.gov.ar ) (OSC translating) Leftist Organizations Condemn 'Zionist Massacre'- Buenos Aires Clarin reports that leftist organizations staged a protest at the Israeli Embassy yesterday evening "to condemn the Zionist massac
 re in Gaza waters." The attack was also condemned by the Argentine-Islamic Organization and the Federation of Argentine-Arab Entities, which requested the annulment of the agreement between Mercosur and Israel. Pagina/12 adds that participants in yesterday's protest, which included the Unemployed Workers Movement (MST), Socialist Workers Party (PTS), Assemblies of the People (AdP), and the Workers Party (PO), announced that they would stage a "coordinated and broader protest next Thursday." Pagina/12 adds that Mothers of Plaza de Mayo head Hebe de Bonafini, Deputy Cecilia Merchan (Freemen of the South-Cordoba), and the Communist Party (PC) also condemned the attack yesterday. (Buenos Aires Clarin.com in Spanish -- Online version of highest-circulation, tabloid-format daily owned by the Clarin media group; generally critical of government; URL:http://www.clarin.com/ http://www.clarin.com ) Israeli Ambassador Defends Operation- Buenos Aires La Nacion's Pablo Gaggero interviews
  Daniel Gazit, who denies the use of excessive force in the Israeli military action, criticizes the failed humanitarian attempt, and states that the international condemnation of the operation "is not justified." (Buenos Aires lanacion.com in Spanish -- Website of conservative, second highest-circulation daily; generally critical of government; URL:http://www.lanacion.com.ar/ http://www.lanacion.com.ar ) Turkish Ambassador Condemns Operation- Buenos Aires La Nacion's Adriana M. Riva interviews Hayri Hayret Yalav, who states that the Israeli operation "was an act of high-sea piracy," will undoubtedly bring "negative consequences" in relations between Turkey and Israel, and Turkey expects "as a minimum, an energetic and unanimous condemnation of the attack by all countries." Commentary Israel Fired at Obama Also- Buenos Aires La Nacion's US correspondent Silvia Pisani writes from Washington that the Israeli attack was "not only" on the fleet of humanitarian aid to Gaza, but "t
 he shots also perforated the heart of the effort that Barack Obama had been making in favor of a peace agreement in the Mid East to leave it, instead, lifeless and with reserved prognosis."  Now, everything returns to square one, but with the "additional threat" this time of "compromising crucial alliances" in the region: "A true setback for so much effort." Palestinians Win War Without Firing Shot- Buenos Aires Clarin's Vatican correspondent Julio Algazaraz writes from Rome that "nothing" is as "astonishing" as the "magnitude" of Israel's "foolishness" in yesterday's attack. "It is almost incredible: The Palestinians have won a war without firing a shot and Israel has damaged its own security considerably." "Never has Israel tested its friends as now. In one swoop, it has gambled a good part of its relationship with the United States. With this senseless crime, Israel has taken another step toward another war in Mid East." "The global crisis favored a multipolar world. In t
 hat framework, the isolation of Israel reaches, with the attack on the fleet, the highest level of the last decades." Other international issues Former US President To Visit- Buenos Aires Clarin reports in its print edition that Bill Clinton will be here next Monday to give a conference at 1830 (2230 GMT) in the Hilton Hotel in Puerto Madero. Kirchner Cancels Visit to Dominican Republic, Announces Visit to Paraguay- Buenos Aires La Nacion reports that former President Nestor Kirchner yesterday cancelled his first activity as the secretary general of the Union of South American Nations (Unasur) and announced that he would not go to the summit in Punta Cana to debate aid to Haiti. His "excuse" was that Honduran President Porfirio Lobo was participating. However, he announced, "not to frustrate his first steps as an international leader," a trip to Paraguay, to meet President Fernando Lugo, between today and tomorrow. El Cronista adds that Kirchner will reportedly travel to Asu
 ncion this afternoon and return next Thursday. His reason for not going to the Dominican Republic is reportedly "an alert about a possible hurricane" in that area. National President Launches Credit Line for Companies- Buenos Aires Clarin's Alejandra Gallo reports that at a ceremony in Casa Rosada yesterday, Cristina Kirchner announced a credit line for small- and medium-sized companies (Pymes), to promote investments and exports, generate employment, and even diminish the price increases: 8 billion pesos ($2 billion), in Central Bank (BCRA) funds through the National Bank (BNA) and private banks, at an interest rate of 9.9%, over five years. Participants included Ministers Amado Boudou (economy), Debora Giorgi (industry), Florencio Randazzo (interior), and Julio Alak (justice), Secretaries Carlos Zannini (legal and technical) and Guillermo Moreno (domestic trade), ruling-party Deputy Carlos Kunkel (Buenos Aires), and Hector Mendez, Argentine Industrial Union (UIA) head; and
  Juan Carlos Lascurain, Argentine Association of Metallurgical Manufacturers (ADIMRA) head, who applauded. President Praises Peaceful Use of Nuclear Energy- Buenos Aires La Nacion reports that at the National Atomic Energy Commission (CNEA) premises in Ezeiza yesterday, Cristina Kirchner headed the ceremony to mark the CNEA's 60th anniversary and said in her address that Argentina was one of the nations "most advanced in the world in the production of uranium of low enrichment" and she stressed its "peaceful and scientific use" here. Participants included Planning Minister Julio de Vido Studies Underway To Construct Fifth Nuclear Power Station- Buenos Aires El Cronista's Pablo Fernandez Blanco reports that several officials confirmed at the CNEA commemoration yesterday that studies had already started to build the country's fifth nuclear power station, which will utilize slightly enriched uranium. Participants at the ceremony also included CNEA head Norma Boero, Energy Secre
 tary Daniel Cameron, and Governors Scioli, Gildo Insfran (Formosa), and Luis Beder Herrera (La Rioja). Insfran signed the agreement with De Vido and Boero to continue the preliminary studies to locate the first Argentine-made nuclear reactor to produce to electrical energy in Formosa -it should be finished in 2014- and Beder Herrera signed an agreement to cooperate in the exploration for uranium in La Rioja. (Buenos Aires El Cronista.com in Spanish -- Website of independent newspaper owned by Spain's Recoletos Group, focusing on financial information; URL:http://www.cronista.com/ http://www.cronista.com ) Planning Ministry Denies Newspaper Report- Buenos Aires La Nacion reports that in reply to a La Nacion report yesterday, the Planning Ministry has told Telam that there were no irregularities in the leasing of a private plane on which De Vido traveled to Tarija and Caracas several times. "There is no mystery," said Horacio Mizrahi, De Vido's spokesman, who added that "the o
 nly mystery is this persecution, discrimination, and systematic lies." Nevertheless, the plane, a Challenger 601, LV-BYG, was leased by its pilot owner Gustavo Carmona from Sirjet LLC, of Delaware, of which Carmona is president. "In other words: De Vido's pilot signed a contract with himself to loan himself money." Meanwhile, Carmona is indicted in the case investigating flights paid by transport-sector businessmen for former Transport Secretary Ricardo Jaime. Chief Justice Says Courts Should Limit, Not Govern- Buenos Aires La Nacion's Adrian Ventura reports that in his address at the Supreme Court Bicentenary celebration yesterday, Ricardo Lorenzetti said that "justice has to put limits on the other powers. That is its constitutional role. But it is not its role to govern." He added that the country should stop living in periods of emergency: "We have a long history of reiterated urgencies," he said. Participants included Alak and Attorney General Esteban Righi. The ceremon
 y was held jointly with the executive, legislative, and judicial branches." Clarin Director Challenges Federal Judge- Buenos Aires La Nacion reports that in the case investigating alleged irregularities in the adoption of her two children, Ernestina Herrera de Noble filed a challenge yesterday against Sandra Arroyo Salgado. Federal Judge Reports Death Threat- Buenos Aires Clarin's Juan Cruz Sanz reports that Norberto Oyarbide reported to Federal Police (PFA) Precinct 17 yesterday afternoon that his family had received a death threat in a telephone call to his domicile. He has recently expressed "concern" about his security and his personal bodyguards accompany him even inside his court at Comodoro Py Avenue. Federal Prosecutor Rejects Trucker's Motion- Buenos Aires Clarin reports that Patricio Evers has rejected an annulment motion filed by General Workers Union (CGT) head Hugo Moyano's defense in the case investigating alleged irregularities in the truckers' health company,
  related to the case investigating the "mafia of the medicines." Trade-Union Leaders Commemorate March Against IMF- Buenos Aires Clarin reports that the CGT staged a ceremony yesterday to commemorate the march that the CGT made on 31 May 2000 to condemn "the neoliberal formulas" from the IMF. It was headed by Moyano and participants included Omar Viviani (taxi drivers), Julio Piumato (court workers), Amadeo Genta (municipal workers), Jorge Perez Tamayo (Tango 01 pilot), and Kunkel. World Cup Hooligans Continue Arriving- Buenos Aires La Nacion's Daniel Arcucci and Alejo Vetere report from Pretoria, in an article headlined "Ambassadors of Fear," that another group of about 20 hooligans has arrived here. They are from "The Lomas Gang," a "worrisome" group that is apparently led by "Marcelo and Diego." La Nacion's Nicolas Balinotti adds from Pretoria that although Marcelo Aravena was paroled after partly serving 13 years of a 20-year sentence, in Villa Devoto Prison,for the murd
 ers of two River Plate hooligans in 1994, he is not in the list of 500 "dangerous names" that the Undersecretariat of Security in Soccer Events (Subsef) and the PFA gave to the South African Police. His "disciples," like "Worm" (Gusano) Pugliese, who is linked to Kirchnerism, are not on the list either. Economic Government Stretches Swap Two Weeks- Buenos Aires La Nacion's Martin Kanenguiser reports that in an attempt to increase adherence by minority investors, the Economy Ministry has postponed the closure of the debt swap until 22 June, "at the request of the banks in all the jurisdictions," said Boudou, who will leave for the G-20 meeting in South Korea today. He added that "the postponement will not generate any cost for the country and, on the contrary, can bring some benefit." He also said that the EU crisis continued provoking doubts about the issuance of a new bond for $1 billion, but not about adherence to the swap. Construction Increases 13.1% in April- Buenos Air
 es El Cronista reports that the National Institute of Statistics and Census (Indec) announced yesterday that construction activity posted an increase of 13.1% in April on April 2009 and thus closed the first four months of the year 9.5% up on the same period last year, after seven consecutive year-on-year increases. Border dispute over pulp mill Presidents Take Different Interests to Summit- Buenos Aires La Nacion's Lucas Colonna reports that after their recent meeting in Olivos, after The Hague ruling on the paper-pulp plant, the title of Cristina Kirchner's summit with Jose Mujica in Uruguay tomorrow should be: "Relaunch effort, chapter two." However, the relaunching will not be so simple since Uruguay has a "rosary of 27 petitions" and the crucial issue for Argentina is how to implement the environmental control that The Hague ordered on Botnia (now UPM). Anyway, important Casa Rosada sources have revealed that the two administrations would try to maximize the summit, the
 ir first binational cabinet meeting, to make a new gesture of political willingness to demonstrate the turning point that has been reached in the bilateral conflict over the installation of the plant on a shared waterway.Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic EconomicDomestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalLeader,LEGAL,INTERNATIONAL ISSUES,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENT,FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTIP
City: 
Geographic Code: ARG,DOM,HND,ISR,PRY,KOR,TUR,USA,URY,WE
Geographic Name: Argentina,Dominican Republic,Honduras,Israel,Paraguay,South Korea,Turkey,United States,Uruguay,West Bank,Americas,Middle East,Asia,Europe,South Americas,Caribbean,Central Americas,North Americas,East Asia,South Europe,URUGUAY,CARIBBEAN,ARGENTINA,AMERICAS,USA,AFRICA,EUROPE,SOUTH AMERICA,ISRAEL,MEDITERRANEAN,DOMINICAN REPUBLIC,NORTH AMERICA,PARAGUAY,SOUTHERN AFRICA,MIDDLE EAST,WESTERN EUROPE,LATIN AMERICA,NETHERLANDS,SOUTH AFRICA,MERCOSURIP
Region: Americas,Middle East,Asia,Europe






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T12:24:03Z --------------------
Title: Belgium's Vanackere: Israeli Raid May Damage US-Mediated Peace Talks
Journal: De Standaard Online
Text:
Yesterday afternoon, Minister Vanackere (Christian Democratic and Flemish) summoned Israeli Ambassador to Belgium Tamar Samash."I told her that for Belgium this situation is doubly regrettable," Vanackere says in conversation with De Standaard.  "Blockading humanitarian goods is inconsistent with the search for a solution to the problem; moreover, we cannot accept that supplying such goods should be opposed with military means."Vanackere calls for an independent investigation into the events.  "What exactly happened must be clarified soon," he says.  "According to the Israeli ambassador, the activists were the first to use force.  Well, I can be satisfied only with an independent version of those facts.  And even then, I do not believe that humanitarian operations should be opposed with military means."The EU has long been calling for Israel to lift its blockade of Gaza.  Should not the EU press more strongly for that?  "It is easily said that Europe is doing nothing," accord
 ing to Vanackere, who visited Israel only last week.  "But the EU adopts clear positions on the conflict, and it is no secret that Israel feels pressured by several of those positions."  I do not wish to fall into doom-mongering and pessimism - on the contrary.  But it is also clear that this kind of incident potentially jeopardizes the indirect talks which are taking place under American mediation between Israel and the Palestinians.  This is a bad day for peace."For the five Belgians aboard the flotilla, Vanackere demands from Israel "rapid consular access, so that we will know whether we can reassure their families here."  "If they have committed no criminal offenses, we expect from Israel a rapid release."(Description of Source: Groot Bijgaarden De Standaard Online in Dutch -- Website of right-of-center daily; URL: http://www.standaard.be)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyr
 ight holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Human RightsInternational PoliticalLeader,INTERNATIONAL ISSUES,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Groot Bijgaarden
Geographic Code: BEL,ISR,GZ,USA
Geographic Name: Belgium,Israel,Gaza Strip,United States,Europe,Middle East,Americas,North Europe,North Americas,BELGIUM,MEDITERRANEAN,EUROPE,MIDDLE EAST,WESTERN EUROPE,ISRAELIP
Region: Europe,Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T11:43:50Z --------------------
Title: Report by Khalid Mustafa: Pakistan needs shot in the arm, PM to convince EU
Journal: The News Online
Text:
ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani will seek immediate relief in tariff concessions particularly on textile products from the European Union (EU) - the block of 27 countries - during the Pak-EU summit to be held in Brussels on June 3-4.This would be necessary to offset the adverse impact of the ongoing war against militants who have posed serious threat to peace and tranquillity of the whole world particularly European countries and US."Pakistan's textile products are currently facing 12 per cent duty by European Union which is why the prices of the Pakistani products in biggest market have surged a lot if compared with other countries products," a senior official told The News. The premier along with his delegation will leave today (Tuesday) for Spain and Belgium.According to the official document arranged from the Ministry of Finance, Pakistan suffered massive loss of $35 billion to its economy in the wake of the ongoing war against militants and its backlash 
 on the country's peace and economic development other than the lives of Pak Armed Forces and civilian causalities.The chief executive of the country, the official disclosed, will also underscore the European Commission to enter into Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Pakistan to wriggle it out from the economic crisis on long term basis, as talks between EU and India have progressed to a large extent and both the countries need one year and a half to finalise the trade deal."And if it happens, then Pakistan will automatically lose the biggest market as Indian goods will make inroads in the European market under 0-5 per cent tariff concessions under FTA, but Pakistan products will reach there with higher duty. This means Pakistani products will no longer remain competitive and lose its market," fears the official.Meanwhile, the top official of the Ministry of Commerce confirmed that the talks between the EU and India are going smooth and the intelligence gathered by the ministry
  unveils that FTA will take one year and a half more to be inked and then EU Parliament will take one year at the maximum to make FTA operational with India.The FTA between the EU and India, he went on to say, has emerged as the biggest challenge not only for Pakistan's trade diplomacy, but also for the incumbent leadership. So it all depends on Gilani leadership qualities as to how he deals with this issue and save the Pakistan's biggest market from the impact of FTA of the EU with India."So far the EU seems evasive about initiating formal talks with Pakistan on Free Trade Agreement as the size of the economy is not at par with the size of India and there is nothing that Pakistan can give to EU under FTA as the country has already liberalised tariff regime. As far as India is concerned, it is the country of over one billion market with huge size of the economy. Moreover, India has restrictive tariff regime which the EU wants to be relaxed after FTA and its market could make
  inroads in the Indian market.""The prime minister will also ask the EU authorities concerned to relax the existing (Generalised System of Preferences) GSP + criteria according to which the countries that fall under GSP+ can export equal to 1 per cent of the import of the EU. Since Pakistan exports are 1.5 per cent which is why it wants the EU to relax GSP facility up to 2 per cent. If it happens, then Pakistan's exports to EU will also increase under GSP plus facility.""The trade volume between Pakistan and EU stands at $9.20 billion, out of which Pakistan exports to EU are $4.50 billion and imports hovers around at $4.75 billion." "So Pakistan wants immediate relief from EU under short-term basis to cope with its economic woes," the official reckoned."A total of 7,739 incidents of terrorism have occurred on Pakistan's soil during the period between 2002 and mid March 2010, resulting in 8,875 deaths of both civilian as well as personnel of law enforcement agencies (LEA) and
  injuries to a further 19,853 people," the documents of the Finance Ministry reveal further."The cost of the humanitarian crisis caused by the displacement of over 3 million people, at its peak, resulting in budgetary outlay of $600 million for the current fiscal alone for relief and rehabilitation of internally displaced population."(Description of Source: Islamabad The News Online in English -- Website of a widely read, influential English daily, member of the Jang publishing group. Neutral editorial policy, good coverage of domestic and international issues. Usually offers leading news and analysis on issues related to war against terrorism. Circulation estimated at 55,000; URL: http://www.thenews.com.pk/)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic EconomicDomestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalLeader,EUROPEAN UNION,FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Islamabad
Geographic Code: PAK,USA,ESP,BEL,DEU
Geographic Name: Pakistan,United States,Spain,Belgium,Germany,Asia,Americas,Europe,South Asia,North Americas,South Europe,North Europe,PAKISTAN,WESTERN ASIA,ASIA,BELGIUM,EUROPE,SOUTHERN ASIA,INDIAN SUBCONTINENT,INDIA,WESTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Asia,Americas,Europe






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T18:14:23Z --------------------
Title: "US Assistant Secretary Valenzuela Makes Quick Visit to Bolivia" -- AFP Headline
Journal: AFP in Spanish to Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean
Text:
Valenzuela, the US assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs, is making today, 1 June, a quick visit to Bolivia, where he is holding a dialogue with local officials 20 months after the Bolivian and US governments expelled the US and Bolivian ambassadors, respectively.Without elaborating and requesting anonymity, the Foreign Ministry source told AFP that "Mr. Valenzuela is meeting today with Foreign Minister David Choquehuanca."This has been Valenzuela's first visit to Bolivia amid a slow dialogue that began last year to rebuild diplomatic relations between the two countries.  In 2008, La Paz expelled the US ambassador after accusing him of plotting against President Evo Morales.Washington responded by expelling the Bolivian ambassador and by denying the charges.The two countries established an agenda of dialogue with a view of concluding a new cooperation framework that encompasses a number of topics such as economic aid, political dialogue, the development 
 of mutual trust, the fight on drugs, and judicial cooperation. No reports have been given about progress made toward closing these agreements.(Description of Source: Paris AFP in Spanish -- Latin American service of the independent French press agency Agence France Presse)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalLeader,INTERNATIONAL ISSUES,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Paris
Geographic Code: BOL,USA
Geographic Name: Bolivia,United States,Americas,South Americas,North Americas,SOUTH AMERICA,BOLIVIA,LATIN AMERICA,AMERICASIP
Region: Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T17:10:25Z --------------------
Title: For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
Journal: Paraguay -- OSC Summary
Text:
-- Asuncion Ultima Hora reports that the Foreign Ministry yesterday issued a statement expressing indignation over the attack by Israeli soldiers on a ship in international waters carrying humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip. It says that the Paraguayan Government expresses "the most energetic rejection to any type of aggression and condemns the use of force that violates the basic principles of international law. It also calls for peaceful and constructive dialogue to prevent the loss of human lives." It adds that the government "firmly supports the actions of the UN Secretary General to carry out a thorough investigation of what happened in order to prevent a new escalation of violence jeopardizing international peace and security." (Asuncion Ultima Hora.com in Spanish -- Website of leading daily; Majority shareholder business and media entrepreneur A.J.Vierci; URL: http://www.ultimahora.com/) Lugo Expresses Support for Information Secretary-- Asuncion La Nacion reports that
  President Fernando Lugo yesterday paid a visit to the Information and Communication for Development Secretariat (Sicom) headed by Augusto Dos Santos, who has been accused of giving privileges to community radio stations that are considered illegal. "Excellent, very good work," Lugo said when observing the work being carried out by the Sicom employees. He also praised the innovations introduced in the government news agency Ipparaguay, which operates in the same facility. Dos Santos denied any responsibility in the request for funds to the Itaipu Binational Enterprise to help the community radio stations. He added that Sicom official Oscar Caceres is the one who contacted Itaipu to obtain the funds and that he expects the situation will be clarified after the investigation concludes. (Asuncion LA NACION Online in Spanish -- Website of daily owned by entrepreneur and Colorado Party member Osvaldo Dominguez Dibb; URL: http://www.lanacion.com.py/) Secretary Says Lugo's Apology 
 to Unace Leader Not Ruled Out-- La Nacion reports that Presidential General Secretary Miguel Lopez Perito yesterday said that President Fernando Lugo is scheduled this evening to go to the Unace (National Union of Ethical Citizens) headquarters to meet with leader Lino Oviedo to obtain his party's support for the government state reform project. He explained that in the past before holding talks, the Unace wanted Lugo to apologize to Oviedo for saying in September 2008 that Oviedo supported a coup against the government. Lopez added that now the Unace put no conditions for the meeting and therefore, an apology from Lugo cannot be ruled out. Lopez Confirms Minister's Removal Request Under Lugo's Consideration; Leftists Accuse US Ambassador-- Asuncion ABC Color reports that Presidential General Secretary Miguel Lopez Perito yesterday confirmed that the request by the Chamber of Deputies to the government to remove Defense Minister Luis Bareiro Spaini, after he was admonished b
 y the chamber (for sending a protest letter to the US ambassador), is under President Fernando Lugo's consideration. Paraguayan Communist Party (PCP) leaders said that there is a destabilizing plan headed by deputies and senators "under the orientation guidelines of US Ambassador Liliana Ayalde in Asuncion." "It would be a serious mistake equivalent to Lugo's political suicide to fire the minister," the leaders said. (Asuncion ABC Color Digital in Spanish -- Website of leading daily, highly critical of ANR-Colorado Party, owned by entrepreneur Aldo Zuccolillo; URL:http://www.abc.com.py) Vice President Franco and Senator Denis watch parade in Concepcion (Source: ABC Color) Vice President Calls for Security in Concepcion Department-- ABC Color carries a report datelined Concepcion on the presence in this city of Vice President Federico Franco yesterday to participate in the city's anniversary celebrations. After meeting with Concepcion Department Governor Emilio Pavon of the P
 LRA (Authentic Radical Liberal Party), PLRA Senator Oscar Denis and local officials, Franco said that the security problem in this department has not been overcome and that the government must find a solution to this problem. He said that there are differences between the situations in Pedro Juan Caballero, Amambay Department, and Concepcion because Pedro Juan Caballero is affected by drug trafficking while Concepcion has to deal with the EPP (Paraguayan People's Army). Yesterday, Franco was also in Tarija, Bolivia, to participate in the installation of new Tarija Department Governor Mario Cocio, who is Franco's friend. Analyst Says Mistrust Ruined Joint Military-Police Operations-- ABC Color carries an article by political analyst Ivan Leguizamon stating that the recent joint military-police operations carried out during the 30-day state of exception measure in Concepcion Department to capture the EPP members was a failure because of the mistrust prevailing between the Arme
 d Forces and the National Police. It says that there was no coordination between the two forces to search for the EPP and therefore, each force went on its own because of the intolerance that prevails between the military and police forces. No Selection: Ciudad del Este VanguardiaMaterial in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalLeaderMilitary,SOCIAL ISSUES,INTERNATIONAL ISSUES,LEGAL,GOVERNMENTIP
City: 
Geographic Code: GZ,ISR,PRY,USA
Geographic Name: Gaza Strip,Israel,Paraguay,United States,Middle East,Americas,South Americas,North Americas,NORTH AMERICA,BOLIVIA,PARAGUAY,USA,AMERICAS,SOUTH AMERICA,MIDDLE EAST,COLORADO,ISRAEL,LATIN AMERICA,PALESTINEIP
Region: Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T16:12:00Z --------------------
Title: "Defence Minister Glad to Have Met Romanian Counterpart in Giurgiu" -- BTA headline
Journal: BTA
Text:
(Description of Source: Sofia BTA in English -- state-owned but politically neutral press agency)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalLeaderMilitary,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Sofia
Geographic Code: BGR,ROU,TUR,USA
Geographic Name: Bulgaria,Romania,Turkey,United States,Europe,Americas,Balkans,South Europe,North Americas,SOUTHERN EUROPE,EUROPE,BULGARIA,ROMANIA,EASTERN EUROPE,NATOIP
Region: Europe,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday September 29, 2009 T11:51:50Z --------------------
Title: Interview with Bulgarian Foreign Minister Rumyana Zheleva by Nikolay Barekov; carried by bTV's "This Morning" program at 0748 on 29 September -- live
Journal: BTA Radiotelevizionen Monitor Online
Text:
(Zheleva)  Good morning.(Barekov)  You arrived in Bulgaria literally a few hours ago from the United States. What news related to Bulgaria have you brought with you?(Zheleva)  I have some good news. The US Administration's attitude to Bulgaria is exceptionally positive. Generally, we have enjoyed a great interest in Bulgaria at the United Nations. We have been greeted on the Bulgarian Government's first steps in the basic priority areas, a realm in which have not been viewed in the past in a positive light.(Barekov)  Yes - until recently.(Zheleva)  Yes, until recently. Therefore it has been very important to explain our position and develop a really good information campaign. I think that we have utilized the 64 th Session of the UN General Assembly in a very positive manner.(Barekov)  Actually, during your visit across the ocean the Bulgarian Government has heard the first assessment of its new policy.(Zheleva)  Precisely, precisely.(Barekov)  The assessment has been positiv
 e. Incidentally, you have met also US President Barack Obama.(Zheleva)  Yes - this has been a great honor. He especially thanked Bulgaria for its participation in the coalition in Afghanistan and on our contribution. He was exceptionally well-informed. Our actions have been highly assessed also by Mrs Hillary Clinton, US secretary of state. She is following with interest the developments. I will have another opportunity of meeting her by the end of the year. We will discuss specific topics which affect security and other issues. I posed the visa issue to highranking representatives of the US Administration. I will very likely have the opportunity of visit the US Congress before the end of the year. I specifically will discus the issue, because it does not depend only on the administration. It is an issue which must be regulated by the US legislature. We will utilize all the possibility the Bulgarian state has in order to develop a good campaign for Bulgaria and popularize th
 e measures the government is adopting in areas such as the combat against organized crime, corruption, fraud, and protecting the borders. Those are important issues.This year's 64 th Session of the UN General Assembly has indeed been a remarkable and phenomenal event not only because after the session the UN building will close for almost seven years for reforms (as printed) and reconstruction, but also because of the strong presence of leaders of the member-countries' highest level. The fact that US President Barack Obama has participated in three major forums has been indicative of the world's unity in coping with global challenges. The awareness of the fact that regardless of whether a state is small or big, poor or rich - it contributes to coping with global challenges, such as the financial crisis and economic recession, and also the climate changes, guaranteeing the supply of and access to food throughout the world. Naturally, energy security has been another important
  issue that has been discussed. Incidentally, this is an issue in which the US Administration is very interested, especially in anything related to the actions of the Bulgarian Government.(Barekov)  I think that you had the opportunity of addressing the UN General Assembly on the same day US President Obama and Libyan leader Muammar Al-Qadhafi, who has been rather critical toward the UN activity. Do the majority of the member-countries share his opinion? You have also moderately criticized the organizations and have recommended enhanced UN presence of East European countries in its activity.(Zheleva)  Precisely.(Barekov)  There already has been much talk about expanding the narrow circle of UN member-countries which adopt the crucial decisions at the so-called Security Council.(Zheleva)  Yes, this is correct. We view the concept of the necessity of reforms in the United Nations and particularly, in the Security Council, as our contribution. The possibility of expanding the S
 ecurity Council must be examined. Naturally, this is a rather controversial topic. However, what I have recommended to the United Nations on behalf of Bulgaria has been to allocate the group of the East European countries at least a non-permanent seat at the Security Council. This is important because... I have followed the current UN Security Council session which has been devoted to disarmament and nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction, as well as preventing the use of nuclear programs for military goals. I must tell you that this is a forum of exceptional importance for the future of the world and it would be good if all world regions are represented in it in a maximum degree. (passage omitted on the need of reform in the United Nations organs)(Barekov)  Would the contacts between the new Bulgarian Government and the Administration of US President Obama intensify? Has the possibility of a visit of prime Minister Boyko Borisov to the White House in the next years
  been discussed? Those are not issues which are decided today for tomorrow or this week for the next. Generally, the pans are made years in advance.(Zheleva)  Precisely.(Barekov)  He has been received well in the United States already at the time he has served as chief secretary of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.(Zheleva)  This is precisely so. We are working already on the organization of a bilateral meeting. It would be more realistic to say that until the end of the year several international forums will take place, which will be attended by both Mr. Borisov and US President Obama. I have requested a meeting between the two within the framework of one of those forums. We are working on this.(Barekov)  You mean that there would be a meeting between the two at a forum they both would attend?(Zheleva)  Yes, yes - I think that there would be enough opportunities for this. As I told you, I will make an official visit to the US Congress, most likely before the end of the year
 , as a representative of the Bulgarian Government and administration. We have had many intensive contacts within the framework of the 64 th session. (passage omitted on Zheleva's participation in various forums of the 64 th UN General Assembly session)(Barekov)  Unfortunately, I cannot end our conversation without invoking the provocation which has taken place at the village of Slavyanovo, Turgovishte Okrug. What signal are we giving the world? Could you, as Bulgarian foreign minister, tell us what king of party is this "Muslim Democratic Union?" It has already been condemned all Bulgarian political parties, including the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS - a political party of the ethnic Turkish population), and Citizens for Bulgaria's European Development (GERB). We can sincerely say that the Bulgarian political parties are viewing this as a provocation toward the country's ethnic model.(Zheleva)  Unfortunately, I have not followed...(Barekov)  Well, you could not poss
 ibly follow this, but...(Zheleva)  Yes, I could not.(Barekov)  Absolutely.(Zheleva)  However, since I have spoken from the world's highest rostrum, as the UN General Assembly is called, about the fact that Bulgaria values tolerance in its relations with states in the Balkan region and the Black Sea zone and we insist on protecting the principles of the democratic values of EU and NATO, which are tolerance and respecting the dignity of others, I cannot refrain from noting with concern the establishment of a party on an ethnic basis. Indeed, this could be viewed as a provocation, because we must preserve what we have, namely, the peaceful coexistence of different ethnic and religious groups in our country. This indeed is our own model which we must export and transfer to other parts of the world...(Barekov)  Rather than spoil what we have already.(Zheleva) ... rather than spoil what we have already and what we could use in domestic and foreign policy. In the final analysis -- 
 this is something toward which the world is striving - and above all, peace. Without peace there is no prosperity.(Barekov)  Thank you, Mrs Rumyana Zheleva, Bulgarian foreign minister, who came to our studio literally hours after returning from the session of the General Assembly of the United Nations - an organization which unites all countries on planet Earth.(Description of Source: Sofia BTA Radiotelevizionen Monitor Online in Bulgarian -- Website of transcripts from radio, television, and print media provided by BTA press agency, which is state-owned but politically neutral)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalHuman RightsInternational PoliticalLeader,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,INTERNATIONAL ISSUES,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Sofia
Geographic Code: BGR,USA
Geographic Name: Bulgaria,United States,Europe,Americas,Balkans,North Americas,NORTH AMERICA,NEW YORK,USA,AMERICAS,SOUTHERN EUROPE,EUROPE,BULGARIA,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Europe,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T16:43:32Z --------------------
Title: The following lists selected items from the Iraqi press on 01 June. To request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
Journal: Iraq -- OSC Summary
Text:
following issues: I. REACTIONS TO RSULTS OF PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONSAl-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 2 a 500-word report entitled "Delay in Endorsing Election Results Hinders Political Process; Independent High Electoral Commission, IHEC, Federal Court Exchange Accusations Over Responsibility for Delay."Ishraqat al-Sadr on 30 May publishes on the front page a 180-word report citing Haydar al-Mulla, member of the Al-Iraqiyah List, as strongly criticizing the State of Law Coalition's attempts to obstruct and delay the endorsement of the results of the legislative elections.Al-Muwatin on 31 May carries on page 2 a 140-word report citing Abd-al-Sattar al-Birqdar, spokesman of the Supreme Judicial Council, as saying that the council will endorse the results of the legislative elections following the settlement of the complaints that have been submitted to the Cassation Court. II. CONTACTS TO FORM NEW COALITIONSTariq al-Sha'b publishes on the front page a 900-word report on the s
 tatement the Coordination Committee of the Democratic Forces and Figures issued yesterday, 31 May, criticizing the winning political forces for their ongoing struggle over power while neglecting the problems of the Iraqi people. The statement attributes the current political crisis over the formation of the next government to the amendments to the Parliamentary Election Law that the prominent forces passed in order to marginalize the democratic trend and other small political forces in the recent elections.Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 2 a 750-word report citing observers as predicting that the winning political forces will not respect the constitutional articles pertaining to the schedule of the formation of the next government due to the current political crisis over the nomination of the next president, prime minister and parliament speaker. The report outlines the results of the ongoing negotiations and political moves of the prominent forces to form the next governme
 nt.Al-Mu'tamar publishes on the front page a 150-word report citing Izzat al-Shabandar, senior State of Law Coalition leader, as describing Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's recent statements welcoming the meeting with former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi as a diplomatic gesture. Al-Shabandar says that Al-Maliki will not meet with Allawi until after the Al-Iraqiyah List agrees to the Federal Court's recent ruling pertaining to the largest bloc that will form the next government.Al-Mu'tamar publishes on the front page a 150-word report entitled "Al-Maliki Arrives in Arbil To Discuss Formation of Next Government."Al-Alam publishes on the front page and on page 3 a 700-word report citing senior Al-Iraqiyah List Leader Salih al-Mutlaq as saying that if the list fails to form the next government, it will support the nomination of Vice President Adil Abd-al-Mahdi for the next prime minister's post.Ishraqat al-Sadr on 30 May publishes on the front page a 240-word report citing Mahmud Ut
 hman, member of the Kurdistan Coalition, as saying that the coalition will demand guarantees from the political blocs with which it would ally regarding the implementation of Article 140 of the constitution.Al-Zaman publishes on page 3 a 100-word report citing Adnan al-Sarraj, leader in the State of Law Coalition, as saying that the coalition and the Iraqi National Alliance have agreed on a mechanism to choose one of three candidates to the post of the prime minister. Al-Sarraj added that the candidates are Nuri al-Maliki, Adil Abd-al-Mahdi and Ibrahim al-Ja'fari and that two of them will give up the post to the third if he promises to observe the agreements between the two coalitions.Al-Adalah publishes on the front page a 300-word report citing Usamah al-Nujayfi, leader in the Al-Iraqiy ah List, as saying that the negotiations between the list and the Iraqi National Alliance are progressing well and that the alliance and the list are very close to each other.Al-Adalah publ
 ishes on page 3 a 300-word report saying that Vice President Adil Abd-al-Mahdi met with Hashim al-Hashimi, secretary general of the Islamic Al-Fadilah Party, and the delegation accompanying him. The report adds that the two sides discussed the political situation in the country and the formation of the next government.Al-Mada publishes on page 2 a 500-word report citing Badr Organization Chairman Hadi al-Amiri as saying that the Iraqi National Alliance and State of Law Coalition have not settled the issue of the prime minister and that the negotiations are still going on between them.Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 31 May publishes on the front page a 100-word report saying that a banquet that was supposed to be thrown at the house of Ammar al-Hakim, chairman of the Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council, was cancelled because of the objections of an entity. The report adds that the banquet was supposed to be attended by the Iraqi National Alliance and State of Law Coalition.Al-Bayyinah al
 -Jadidah on 31 May publishes on the front page a 100-word report citing a source as saying that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, during a meeting with a delegation from the Al-Sadr Trend, promised to meet all the demands of the Al-Sadr Trend members if they withdraw their objection to him holding the post of prime minister for another term. III. REACTIONS TO MERGER BETWEEN STATE OF LAW COALITION AND IRAQI NATIONAL ALLIANCEAl-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 2 a 400-word report citing senior Al-Sadr Trend Leader Amir al-Kinani as affirming that the Iraqi National Alliance and State of Law Coalition have agreed on a mechanism for the election of their candidate for the next prime minister's post. The report cites Cabinet's Secretary General Ali al-Allaq as saying that if the Iraqi political forces put Iraq's national interests before their own interests in the formation of the next government, Iraq will have a great chance for progress in all fields.Al-Mu'tamar publishes on the 
 front page a 400-word report citing Vice President Adil Abd-al-Mahdi as criticizing some political forces for accusing the merger of the Iraqi National Alliance and State of Law Coalition of sectarianism.Al-Mu'tamar publishes on the front page a 200-word report citing Adnan al-Sarraj, senior State of Law Coalition leader, as affirming that the coalition and Iraqi National Alliance have reached an agreement on the mechanism for the election of the next prime minister.Al-Mashriq publishes on the front page a 540-word report citing Qasim Dawud, senior Iraqi National Alliance leader, as denying the recent statements by Adnan al-Sarraj, senior State of Law Coalition leader, saying that the two parties had reached an agreement on the mechanism for the election of the next prime minister. Dawud hold the State of Law Coalition responsible for the delay in reaching an agreement because it insists on the nomination of outgoing Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki for a second term.Al-Alam pu
 blishes on the front page and on page 3 a 1,100-word report citing a well-informed source, who requested anonymity, yesterday, 31 May, as saying that during his recent visit to Al-Najaf, outgoing Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki urged Religious Authority Ali al-Sistani to pressure Ammar al-Hakim, chairman of the Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council, IISC, and the Al-Sadr Trend to agree to his nomination for a second term because this is the only way to quickly form the next government. The report cites well-informed sources as saying that a new coalition comprising the Al-Iraqiyah List, Iraqi National Alliance, and Kurdistan Coalition may be formed soon in the wake of the ongoing disputes between the Iraqi National Alliance and State of Law Coalition over the next prime minister's post.Al-Alam publishes on page 3 a 300-word report citing outgoing Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's adviser Ali al-Musawi as accusing some rival political forces of circulating untrue reports on the coherence
  of the State of Law Coalition.Al-Muwatin on 31 May carries on page 2 a 150-word report citing Al-Sadr Trend Qusay al-Suhayl as saying that the trend has reservations over the nomination of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki for a second term, and expecting that the new parliament would hold its first session following the endorsement of the results of the legislative elections. IV.PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONSIshraqat al-Sadr on 30 May publishes on the front page a 220-word report citing Shaykh Abd-al-Hadi al-Muhammadawi, during the Friday sermon at the Al-Kufah Mosque in the Al-Najaf Governorate, as rejecting the nomination of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki for a second term and affirming that the nomination of Al-Maliki for a second term is deemed as a defeat for the Al-Sadr Trend.Al-Sabah publishes on the front page a 160-word report citing an official source in the Kurdistan Region as saying that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki discussed with Kurdish President Mas'ud Barzani the late
 st political developments in Iraq, including the issue of the formation of the next government and ways of settling the unresolved issues between Baghdad and Arbil.Al-Istiqamah publishes on the front page a 300-word report citing Nabil Isma'il, member of the Iraqi National Alliance, as saying that the alliance is not looking for power but its main concern is to form the next government as soon as possible.Al-Istiqamah publishes on page 3 a 200-word report citing Grand Ayatollah Shaykh Bashir al-Najafi as calling on the leaders of the political blocs to end their disputes and quickly form the next government.Al-Zaman publishes on page 3 a 200-word report citing Sardar Abd-al-Karim, member of the board of directors in the Independent High Electoral Commission, as saying that the candidate from the Al-Iraqiyah List who is supposed to replace late candidate Bashar al-Ugaydi is said to be convicted for a number of crimes. V. POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS AND COMMENTSAl-Sabah al-Jadid pu
 blishes on page 5 a 1,300-word report citing Mullah Bakhtiyar, senior Patriotic Union of Kurdistan leader, as describing the party's third conference that will be held in Al-Sulaymaniyah today, 1 June, as a turning point in the party's history.Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 5 a 550-word report citing Kurdish Parliament Members Abd-al-Salam Barwari and Samir Salim as praising Kurdish President Mas'ud Barzani's speech at the Kurdish parliament session on 29 May, in which he informed the parliament of his planned visits to Turkey and France.Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 5 a 450-word report entitled "Draft of Electronic Journalism's Pact of Honor Discussed in Dahuk."Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 5 a 260-word report entitled" Kurdish President Barzani meets With Swedish Delegation To Discuss Enhancing Bilateral Relations."Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 5 a 200-word report entitled "Kurdish Government Officially Demands Turkey, Iran Stop Bombardment of Border
  villages."Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on the front page a 400-word report on the statement the Iraqi Communist Party's Political Bureau issued yesterday, 31 May, condemning Israel for attacking the aid ships carrying humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip yesterday.Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on the front page a 900-word report on the angry local and international reaction to the massacre that Israel committed against the aid ships carrying humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip yesterday, 31 May.Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 2 a 400-word report on the lecture Muhammad Jasim a l-Labban, member of the Iraqi Communist Party's Political Bureau, delivered at seminar the party organized in Al-Kut in the Wasit Governorate on 29 May, to outline the results of the recent meeting of the Party's Central Committee and to discuss the latest political developments in the country.Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 2 a 400-word report on the statement the Iraqi Communist Party's Political Bureau issue
 d mourning senior Party Leader Zuhayr Ibrahim al-Zahir who died in Syria recently.Al-Mu'tamar publishes on the front page a 240-word report on the statement the Iraqi National Congress issued yesterday, 31 May, condemning the Israeli aggression against the aid ships carrying humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip yesterday, 31 May.Al-Mashriq publishes on the front page and on page 4 a 700-word report citing an official source at the Planning Ministry as affirming that seven million Iraqis are living below the poverty line.Al-Alam publishes on front page and on page 2 a 2,700-word report citing a senior official, who requested anonymity, as revealing the salaries of the president, prime minister, parliament speaker, and their deputies.Al-Alam publishes on front page a 120-word report entitled "Foreign Ministry Summons Iranian, Turkish Ambassadors."Ishraqat al-Sadr on 30 May publishes on the front page a 200-word report citing former Iraqi Government Spokesman Layth Kubbah as call
 ing for depending on the presidential regime in order to get rid of the proportional power sharing system in the country.Al-Da'wah on 31 May carries on the front page a 120-worpd report citing Muhsin al-Sa'dun, member of the Kurdistan Coalition, as saying that the authorities of the prime minister and president are stipulated in the constitution, and affirming that the articles of the constitution cannot be amended according to the demands of the political blocs or any other party.Al-Da'wah on 31 May carries on the front page a 90-word report citing Adnan al-Sarraji, member of the State of Law Coalition, as saying that the new parliament is the only party that can determine the powers of the prime minister and introduce amendments to the constitution, and accusing the Al-Iraqiyah List of violating the constitution by calling for changing these powers. (OSC plans no further processing)Al-Muwatin on 31 May carries on page 2 a 150-word report citing Kawah Mahmud, spokesman of t
 he Kurdish Government, as calling on Iran and Turkey to stop attacking the border areas in the Kurdistan Region, and affirming that the government is seeking to diplomatically settle this issue.Al-Sabah publishes on the front page a 120-word report saying that the Spanish Government has refused to hold an international conference that supports violence in Iraq.Al-Sabah publishes on page 2 a 90-word report citing President Jalal Talabani as congratulating his Italian counterpart on the national day of his country. (OSC plans no further processing)Al-Sabah publishes on page 2 a 320-word report saying that the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan will hold its third general conference in the Al-Sulaymaniyah Governorate today, 1 June.Al-Sabah publishes on page 2 a 120-word report on the statement the Foreign Affairs Ministry issued saying that the new Iraqi ambassador to Yemen presented a copy of his credentials to the Yemeni foreign minister.Al-Sabah publishes on page 4 a 400-word repo
 rt on the statement the Foreign Affairs Ministry issued saying that it has handed over memorandums of protest to the Iranian ambassador to Iraq and the Turkish charge d'affaires in Iraq over the continuation of the Iranian and Turkish shelling of the border areas of Iraq.Al-Zaman publishes on the front page a 300-word report saying that the followers of the Al-Sadr Trend staged a demonstration in protest over the Israeli attack on a Turkish ship carrying peace activists and humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip. The report adds that Religious Cleric Husayn al-Mu'ayyad has issued a statement in which he condemned the Israeli attack.Al-Zaman publishes on page 2 a 300-word report citing Arshad al-Salihi, member of the Al-Iraqiyah List, as saying that the politicians do not pay a great deal of attention to the Kirkuk Governorate and that it is like a time bomb that would explode when the governorate becomes part of a deal between the political factions. The report cites Ala Talaban
 i, member of the Kurdistan Coalition, as saying that the investment companies do not come to the governorate because of the instability in the political and security situation.Al-Zaman publishes on page 2 a 300-word report citing Kuwaiti Ambassador to Iraq Ali al-Mu'min as saying that Kuwait is negotiating with the Iraqi Government to allow the Kuwaitis to restore their properties in Iraq.Al-Zaman publishes on page 2 a 100-word report saying that Elite Gathering Secretary General Ali al-Dabbagh, during his visit to Qatar to attend economic forums, met with Kuwaiti Prime Minister Nasir al-Sabah and Arab League Secretary General Amr Musa and discussed with them the latest developments in the political situation in Iraq.Al-Zaman publishes on page 3 a 100-word report saying that Jordan has appointed Muhammad al-Masa'idah as its new ambassador to Iraq.Al-Zaman publishes on page 3 a 300-word report saying that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki met with Kurdish President Mas'ud Barzani
  in the Arbil Governorate and that he will attend the conference of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan in the Al-Sulaymaniyah Governorate.Al-Zaman devotes half of page 16 to an interview with Shurash Isma'il, leader in the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.Al-Adalah publishes on the front page a 200-word report saying that Vice President Adil Abd-al-Mahdi has condemned the Israeli attack on the Turkish ship that was traveling to the Gaza Strip carrying humanitarian aid.Al-Adalah publishes on the front page a 200-word report saying that Ammar al-Hakim, chairman of the Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council, met with Defense Minister Abd-al-Qadir al-Ubaydi and discussed the latest developments in the political and security situation in the country.Al-Adalah publishes on page 3 a 100-word report saying that a number of parliament members, tribal chiefs and members of the local government attended a conference for national reconciliation in the Babil Governorate.Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 31 May
  publishes on the front page a 60-word report saying that Karrar al-Khafaji, chairman of the Political Commission of the Al-Sadr Trend, met with Lebanon's Religious Authority Ayatollah Muhammad Husayn Fadlallah in Beirut and conveyed to him a letter from Sayyid Muqtada al-Sadr.Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 31 May devotes all of page 7 to an interview with Dr. Tawfiq al-Yasiri, member of the State of Law Coalition.Al-Bayyinah on 31 May publishes on the front page a 120-word report saying that members in the Al-Iraqiyah List are holding contacts with the State of Law Coalition and Iraqi National Alliance without informing the leaders of their lists. VI. SECURITY AND MILITARY DEVELOPMENTSAl-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 3 a 1,200-word report entitled "Roadside Bomb Explosion Targets Police Checkpoint in Al-Rubay'i Street, Explosion of Bomb Attached to Car Near Al-Sakhrah Restaurant in Palestine Street in Baghdad; Woman Wearing Explosive Belt Arrested in Kirkuk; 16 Insurgents Arr
 ested During Clashes in Mosul."Al-Da'wah on 31 May carries on the front page a 140-word report saying that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, Al-Anbar police commander, Al-Anbar operations commander and other senior security officials held a meeting during which they discussed the security situation in the governorate.Al-Da'wah on 31 May carries on the front page a 140-word report citing Hanin Qaddaw, member of the Shabak Bloc, as saying that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has played an important role in preventing the civil war that the terrorists tried to fuel among the Iraqi components, and affirming that the Iraqi security forces are able to impose security in the country with the help of the Iraqi people.Al-Da'wah on 31 May carries on the front page a 170-word report citing Salim al-Juburi, member of the Al-Iraqi Al-Tawafuq Front, as saying that the performance of the security agencies has recently improved thank to the efforts that were exerted by the parliamentary blocs.Al
 -Da'wah on 31 May carries on page 2 a 140-word report citing a security source at the South Oil Company as saying that more than 850,000 landmines were removed from the oil fields in the Basra Governorate.Al-Da'wah on 31 May caries on page 2 a 170-word report citing Defense Ministry Spokesman Muhammad al-Askari as saying that the security forces arrested a number of important terrorists affiliated with the Al-Qa'ida Organization during the past weeks.Al-Muwatin on 31 May carries on page 2 a 150-word report citing Kawah Mahmud, spokesman of the Kurdish Government, as calling on Iran and Turkey to stop attacking the border areas in the Kurdistan Region, and affirming that the government is seeking to diplomatically settle this issue.Al-Sabah publishes on the front page a 250-word report citing Anwar al-Tamimi, spokesman of the Media Center of the Al-Najaf Governorate Council, as saying that five persons were involved in robbing the Al-Mishkhab Bank and that three of them live 
 in Baghdad, and denying reports that the security forces arrested one of the gang members in the Karbala Governorate.Al-Sabah publishes on page 4 an 80-word report citing a security source in the Baghdad Governorate as saying that unidentified gunmen assassinated the Al-Kamb Awakening Council leader in the Al-A'zamiyah District. (OSC plans no further processing)Al-Sabah publishes on page 4 a 240-word report citing Sadiq al-Husayni, deputy chairman of the Diyala Governorate Council from the Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council, as saying that there are a number of civil society organizations that were involved in implementing terrorist operations in the governorate.Al-Sabah publishes on page 4 a 240-word report citing Qasim Ata, spokesman of the Baghdad Operations Command, as saying that the command arrested two prominent Al-Qa'ida leaders, one of whom was in charge of the assassinations that were implemented by Al-Qa'ida.Al-Istiqamah publishes on the front page a 600-word report on
  the statement the Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council issued condemning the Israeli attack on the Freedom Flotilla that was carrying humanitarian aid to the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip from Turkey.Al-Istiqamah publishes on the front page a 270-word report saying that Sayyid Ammar al-Hakim, chairman of the Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council, met with Defense Minister Abd-al-Qadir al-Ubaydi and discussed with him the latest security developments in the country. The report cites Al-Hakim, during the meeting, as calling on the security forces to exert more efforts to achieve stability in the country.Al-Sabah publishes on page 2 a 360-word report citing a security source in the Diyala Governorate as saying that the Al-Qa'ida Organization has started preparing a new plan to carry out terrorist operations in the governorate by exploiting the Friday sermons to implement its crimes against the citizens in the governorate.Al-Istiqamah publishes on page 2 a 120-word report citing the media sp
 okesman for the Karbala Police Command as saying that the security agencies arrested one of the persons who were involved in robbing the Al-Mishkhab Bank in the Al-Najaf Governorate.Al-Istiqamah publishes on page 2 a 120 -word report citing an official security source as saying that an Iraqi Army force arrested a photographer who was suspected of photographing a number of terrorist operations in the Abu-Ghurayb District.Al-Zaman publishes on the front page a 100-word report saying that a gunman assassinated a leader in the Awakening Councils in the Al-A'zamiyah District in Baghdad. The report adds that the security forces arrested a female suicide bomber in the Kirkuk Governorate.Al-Zaman publishes on page 2 a 120-word report saying that the Iranian and Turkish artillery shelled villages on their borders with the Kurdistan Region. The report adds that the Kurdish Government has called on the Turkish and Iranian Governments to stop their raids on the border villages.Al-Zaman 
 publishes on page 2 a 100-word report saying that the Justice Ministry has denied encountering any riots inside its prisons.Al-Zaman publishes on page 2 a 200-word report saying that the Kurdish security forces arrested a Syrian citizen carrying a counterfeit Iraqi ID card in the Ninawah Governorate while the security forces found two ammunition stores in the governorate. In another development, an Ethiopian woman disappeared in the Kirkuk Governorate and that the security forces are still searching for her.Al-Zaman publishes on page 3 a 100-word report citing Abd-al-Karim Darib, chairman of the Security Committee in the Baghdad Advisory Council, as saying that the committee is considering a proposal to hire the members of the Awakening Councils in the security forces in their own districts in order to avoid security violations.Al-Zaman publishes on page 3 a 200-word report saying that the Al-Najaf Advisory Council summoned the police commander and the commander of the Facil
 ities Protection Service to discuss with them the robbery of a bank in the Al-Mishkhab District in the governorate.Al-Zaman publishes on page 3 a 300-word report citing Baghdad Operations Commander Spokesman Qasim Ata as saying that the security forces arrested and killed 40 senior leaders in the Al-Qa'ida Organization. The report adds that Commander-in-Chief Nuri al-Maliki held a meeting with the commander of the Al-Anbar Operations Command and discussed with them the security situation in the governorate.Al-Zaman publishes on page 5 a 300-word report saying that gunmen kidnapped two people in the Al-Qa'im District in the Al-Anbar Governorate. The report adds that gunmen blew the house of a policeman in the Al-Habbaniyah District in the governorate. In the Basra Governorate, the security forces, during the last two years, arrested the members of 112 armed groups, defused 1,000 explosive devices and restored trillion Iraqi dinars to the government.Al-Adalah publishes on page
  2 a 300-word report saying that the security forces killed the terrorist who killed Bashar al-Ugaydi, new parliament member for the Al-Iraqiyah List, during a clash in the Ninawah Governorate.Al-Mada publishes on page 2 a 300-word report citing Muhammad al-Khaz'ali, member of the Iraqi National Alliance, as saying that the attacks on the terrorists have forced them to consider funding their operations from internal sources.Al-Bayyinah on 31 May publishes on the front page a 200-word report saying that 200 security personnel left their work in the Baghdad Airport Prison in a protest over forcing them to enter the prison from a gate that passes through the unsafe the Al-Radwaniyah District. VII. HEALTH AND HUMAN RIGHTS ISSUESAl-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 4 a 300-word report citing Dr Iyad Abd-al-Sahib, director of the Wasit Health Directorate's Health Monitoring Department, as affirming the confiscation and destruction of large quantities of food items unfit for human c
 onsumption in the local markets in the governorate.Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 4 a 300-word report saying tha t Karbala Governor Amal al-Din al-Hirr inaugurated the Al-Ghadir Health Center's expansion project in Karbala at a total cost of 342 million Iraqi dinars.Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on the front page a 700-word report citing a study published in Washington recently affirming that the local and regional child trafficking gangs have intensified their activities in Iraq recently. The report cites a well-informed official source, who requested anonymity, as complaining about the insufficient funds allocated by the government to the children's care offices in the country. The report outlines the problems of the Iraqi children on the World Children Day.Tariq al-Sha'b devotes most of page 4 to a report by Qasim al-Ma'muri on the expanded symposium the Labor and Social Affairs Ministry organized in Baghdad on 26 May, to discuss the draft of the new Labor Law.Tariq al-Sh
 a'b publishes on page 4 a 700-word article by Muhammad Darwish Ali praising the Iraqi women for their struggle and participation in the various economic and social activities in the country.Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 5 a 500-word article by Ali Ahmad Mashhad al-Tamimi strongly criticizing the government and Labor and Social Affairs Ministry for allocating only a 50,000 Iraqi dinar salary for the disabled unemployed workers who are covered by the Social Protection Network.Al-Mashriq publishes on page 4 a 250-word report citing an official source at the Immigrants and Displaced Persons Ministry as affirming the issuance of identity and citizenship cards for 364 Iraqi refugees who have returned to their homes from abroad.Al-Mashriq publishes on page 4 a 120-word report citing an official source at the Baghdad Governorate Council as affirming plans to build residential units for the displaced families in Baghdad's suburbs.Al-Mashriq publishes on page 4 a 200-word report en
 titled "Juveniles Correction Office: Construction of New Detention Center To Be Completed Later This Year."Baghdad on 31 May publishes on page 4 a 370-word report citing an international official as warning of the poor quality of drinking water in Iraq.Baghdad on 31 May publishes on page 4 a 160-word report citing an official source at the Dhi Qar Health Department as saying that the department has imposed fines on a number of shops for violating the health regulations in the governorate.Al-Muwatin on 31 May carries on page 3 a 170-word report citing the media adviser of the Wasit Health Department as saying that 16 female students suffered from suffocation as a result of the fire that broke out at the housing complex inside the Wasit University.Al-Sabah publishes on page 5 a 200-word report citing an official source at the Health Ministry as saying that the ministry has not registered any cases of swine flu this year.Al-Istiqamah publishes on page 2 a 240-word report citing
  Ninawah Health Director Dr Salah-al-Din Dhannun as saying that the department has provided a number of public hospitals in the governorate with new medical apparatuses and equipment.Al-Da'wah on 31 May carries on the front page a 170-word report citing Salim al-Juburi, member of the Al-Iraqi Al-Tawafuq Front, as saying that the performance of the security agencies has recently improved thanks to the efforts that were exerted by the parliamentary blocs.Al-Zaman publishes on page 4 a 500-word report on the disabled people in the Dhi Qar Governorate and the services that are provided to them at the Disabled Rehabilitation Center in the Al-Nasiriyah District.Al-Mada publishes on page 4 a 120-word report entitled "Identifying Cattle infected with Hemorrhagic Fever in Ninawah Governorate."Al-Bayan on 31 May publishes on page 2 a 400-word interview with Juvenile Correction Directorate Chairman Kazim Ra'uf Ali.Al-Bayan on 31 May pu blishes on page 2 a 120-word report entitled "Basr
 a Advisory Council Endorses Number of Health Projects." VIII. ECONOMIC NEWS AND PUBLIC SERVICESAl-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on the front page a 130-word report citing an official source at the Transport Ministry as announcing that the German Lufthansa Airlines Company will extend its direct flights to Baghdad in September.Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on the front page a 160-word report saying that the committee in charge of the development of the Baghdad Airport's surrounding area held a meeting that was attended by the transport minister and chairman of the National Investment Commission, in addition to the representatives of the Baghdad Mayoralty, Baghdad Governorate Council, and US team, to discuss the designs and scope of the project.Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 4 a 700-word report citing Hasan Isma'il Ibrahim, director of the Trade Ministry's Grains Trading Company, as affirming that the company's marketing centers have so far received 187,000 metric tons of wheat 
 crops and 38,000 metric tons of barley crops from farmers. Ibrahim affirms the payment of liabilities to the first group of farmers.Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 4 a 600-word report citing Diyala Electricity Director Muhammad al-Nu'aymi as affirming that the German Siemens Company will begin work on the construction of 600-megawatts power plant in the Himrin region soon.Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 4 a 300-word report citing Communications Minister Faruq Abd-al-Qadir as affirming that the fourth cell phone company that will be run by the ministry will work on the basis of competition with the current three private companies working in the country.Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 4 a 700-word report citing an official source at the Water Resources Ministry as affirming that an international company will begin work on the construction of a concrete wall in front of the Mosul Dam soon. The report cites Iraqi Expert Dr Qays al-Bayyati as saying that the Iraqi and
  foreign academics and experts have agreed that the concrete wall will solve the problem of the dam's foundation.Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 10 a 500-word report citing the chairman of the Al-Najaf Governorate Council's Economic Committee as affirming plans to establish a stock market in the governorate. The report cites Financial Expert Hashim Husayn as affirming that the Al-Diwaniyah Governorate is taking the same step.Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 10 a 600-word report on Industry Minister Fawzi Hariri at the inaugural ceremony of the new LPG Factory of the Al-Ikha State Company on 30 May.Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 10 a 1,200-word report on the monthly inflation rate report the Planning Ministry's Central Statistics and Information technology Agency issued on inflation in the local markets in April.Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 5 a 360-word report outlining the demands of the residents of the Jukuk District in Baghdad.Tariq al-Sha'b devotes part o
 f page 5 to public complaints.Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 5 a 500-word report by Adil al-Ziyadi outlining the demands of the residents of the Al-Diwaniyah Governorate.Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 8 a 600-word report on the history, goals, activities, and achievements of the Iraqi Businessmen's Union.Al-Mu'tamar publishes on the front page a 300-word report on the statement the Electricity Ministry issued affirming the implementation of the new price list of electricity supply that was endorsed by the cabinet recently as of today, 1 June.Al-Mu'tamar publishes on the front page a 300-word report citing an official source at the Education Ministry as affirming that 410,000 intermediate school students will sit for their final examinations throughout the country today, 1 June.Al-Mu'tamar devotes all of page 5 to a report by Fu'ad al-Ubudi citing new graduates as complaining about the lack of jobs.Al-Mashriq publishes on page 4 a 700-word report entitled "Baghdad Mayor: 
 All Strategic Projects To Be Completed in Next Two Years."Al-Alam publishes on page 3 a 340-word report entitled "Maysan Governorate Discusses Preparation of Land Plots for Investment Projects."Ishraqat al-Sadr on 30 May publishes on page 2 a 100-word report saying that 15 German companies have opened 15 offices in the Kurdistan Region with the aim of implementing investment projects in the region. (OSC plans no further processing)Al- Da'wah on 31 May carries on the front page a 140-word report citing Hanin Qaddaw, member of the Shabak Bloc, as saying that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has played an important role in preventing the civil war that the terrorists tried to fuel among the Iraqi components, and affirming that the Iraqi security forces are able to impose security in the country with the help of the Iraqi people.Al-Da'wah on 31 May carries on page 2 a 200-word report citing a number of senior officials at the General Traffic Directorate as saying that a number of s
 erious traffic incidents have recently taken place because of the poor conditions of the old roads and the increase in the number of vehicles in the country.Al-Muwatin on 31 May carries on the front page a 550-word report citing a senior official at the Finance Ministry as saying that the ministry is monitoring the activities of the private banks, and affirming that the government has taken a number of measures to confront the robberies of the banks in the country.Al-Muwatin on 31 May carries on page 3 a 120-word report on the statement the Finance Ministry issued saying that the ministry has published the country's 2010 budget on the ministry's website.Al-Muwatin on 31 May carries on page 3 a 170-worrd report citing the media adviser of the Labor and Social Affairs Ministry as calling for increasing the allocated funds of the ministry.Al-Sabah publishes on page 2 a 75-word report saying that Deputy Prime Minister Rafi al-Isawi inaugurated the project of producing cooking ga
 s cylinders in Amiriyat al-Fallujah in the Al-Anbar Governorate.Al-Sabah publishes on page 2 a 340-word report citing Salah Khudayyir Abbas, director general of the State Company for Iraqi Ports, as calling on the Iraqi Government to implement the Major Al-Faw Port Project in order to prevent the domination of the foreign companies over the port.Al-Sabah publishes on page 5 a 120-word report citing Dhi Qar Governor Talib al-Hasan as saying that the Dhi Qar Municipality Department has distributed land plots to 186 citizens in the governorate.Al-Sabah publishes on page 5 a 100-word report citing a source in the Salah-al-Din Governorate as saying t hat acting Salah-al-Din Governor Ahmad Abd-al-Jabbar al-Karim met with a delegation representing the State of Texas in the United States and discussed with it ways of enhancing the economic cooperation between the two parties. (OSC plans no further processing)Al- Sabah carries on page 5 a 230-word report citing Baghdad Deputy Governo
 r Dr Muhammad Hamzah Jarallah al-Shammari as saying that a number of housing projects were inaugurated in the capital.Al-Sabah publishes on page 5 a 200-word report citing Baghdad Mayor Dr Sabir al-Isawi as saying that the Baghdad Municipality will construct six bridged intersections and a tunnel in the capital next year.Al-Sabah publishes on page 14 an 80-word report saying that Dhi Qar Deputy Governor Hasan La'yus met with a delegation representing a number of Russian companies and discussed with it the possibility of implementing investment projects in the governorate. (OSC plan s no further processing)Al-Istiqamah publishes on page 2 a 300-word report citing an official source at the Basra Businessmen's Union as saying that the union has completed the preparations for organizing an international trade fair in the governorate this month.Al-Zaman publishes on the front page a 200-word report citing Education Ministry Undersecretary Ali al-Ibrahimi as saying that the minist
 ry has 10,000 available job opportunities for next year and that they will be available when the parliament allows the ministry to start hiring employees.Al-Zaman publishes on page 2 a 300-word report citing Finance Ministry Adviser Diya al-Khayyun as saying that the Al-Warqa Investment Bank is a respectable bank and that the ministry has no problem with its chairman.Al-Zaman publishes on page 3 a 250-word report citing Dhi Qar Governor Talib al-Hasan as calling for Pope Benedict XVI to hold the Christmas celebrations in the Ur City and the house of Prophet Abraham in the governorate. Al-Hasan added that holding such celebrations in Iraq would help in encouraging companies to invest in the governorate.Al-Zaman publishes on page 4 a 120-word report citing a source in the Electricity Ministry as saying that the situation of the electricity that is provided to the people has deteriorated because an electricity tower between Baghdad and the Al-Anbar Governorate was targeted and 
 damaged by terrorists.Al-Zaman publishes on page 5 a 300-word report saying that a Canadian company will implement a project to build a power station in the Babil Governorate at a cost of $84 million. The report adds that the project will be completed in 18 months and will provide the country with 250 megawatts of electricity.Al-Zaman publishes on page 17 a 120-word report saying that 15 German investment companies have opened offices in the Arbil Governorate.Al-Adalah publishes on page 6 a 600-word report citing Baghdad Mayor Sabir al-Isawi as saying that the majority of the strategic projects that are being implemented in the capital will be completed next year.Al-Mada publishes on page 4 a 300-word report citing Abd-al-Husayn Radi Hajar, deputy chairman of the Dhi Qar Advisory Council, as saying that the threats by the tribes are negatively affecting the implementation of projects in the governorate.Al-Bayan on 31 May publishes on page 2 a 250-word report saying that a de
 legation from Russian companies visited the Dhi Qar Governorate and met with a number of its officials to discuss the potential investment opportunities in the governorate. IX. PRESS COMMENTSAl-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 2 a 700-word article by Amir al-Hilu commemorating late Egyptian Writer Usamah Anwar Ukashah.Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 3 a 700-word article by Jihad Zayyir commenting on the Iraqi political leaders' frequent visits to the religious authority in Al-Najaf recently that aim to invo lve it in the dispute over the formation of the next government. The writer praises Grand Religious Authority Ali al-Sistani for his refusal to intervene in the ongoing power struggle between the rival political forces in the country.Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 3 a 1,600-word report by Abadi al-Qahtani on the ongoing controversy over the recent fatwas issued by some Saudi clerics.Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 4 a 500-word article by Hasballah Yahya stron
 gly criticizing the committee, which the government has formed to reform the rationed food system, for recommending the reduction of the number of rationed food items. The article also criticizes the Trade Ministry for its failure to improve the quantity and quality of rationed food items.Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 8 an 800-word article by Nazim Muhammad al-Ubaydi discussing the reasons behind the wide gap between literature and the Iraqi and other Arab peoples.Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 9 a 1,200-word article by Ammar al-Baghdadi wondering as to how the Iraqi political forces can call for the formation of the next government on a national partnership basis while they are wagering on the split within their rival blocs and sectarian sedition in order for them to be able to form the next government. The article strongly criticizes the Iraqi political leaders for the delay in forming the next government.Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 9 a 1,200-word articl
 e by Dr Sa'dun al-Jumayli saying that the United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, and the Kurds claim to stand at the same distance from all of the Iraqi factions to cover up their real goals in the country.Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 9 a 600-word article by Nafi Matar says that the Iraqi society lacks the culture of accepting the other opinion.Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 9 a 700-word article by Sadiq Bakhan saying that while the United States has succeeded in defeating racism by electing US President Obama, the diseases of sectarianism and ethnicity have been introduced along with democracy in Iraq.Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 5 a 400-word article by Kifah Muhammad Mustafa wondering as to whether the rival political leaders are aware of the fact that some poor Iraqi people are selling their kidneys to feed their families.Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 8 a 1,300-word article by Rawhi Aziz al-Sa'd discussing the impact of the civil servants' loans prog
 ram on the prices of commodities in the local markets, society, and Iraq's national economy.Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 8 a 760-word article by Adil Abd-al-Zahrah Shabib emphasizing the importance of the development of the scientific research sector in consolidating the economic development plans in the country.Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 9 a 2,000-word article by Adil Habbah on the suffering of the residents of the Basra Governorate due to the former regime's previous wars, and criticizing the Basra local government for focusing on unimportant issues while neglecting the basic services in the governorate.Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 9 a 1,600-word article by Diya al-Shakarji discussing the concept of secularism.Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 9 a 1,200-word part two of an article by Rida al-Zahir entitled "Marx's Letters to Kuhlmann."Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 10 a 1,500-word article by Dr Muhannad al-Barrak saying that the dispute between the Al-Iraqiy
 ah List and State of Law Coalition over the next prime minister's post is in fact a struggle over the post of the commander-in-chief of the Iraqi armed forces. The article says that this issue raises fear of the return of dictatorship to the country.Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 10 a 600-word article by Abd-al-Aziz Lazim condemning the terrorist groups for their hideous crimes against t he Iraqi people and saying that the recent Al-Bayya goldsmith robbery demonstrates their bankruptcy.Tariq al-Sha'b devotes the entire back page to report on the World Children Day.Al-Mu'tamar publishes on page 8 a 2,400- word article by Khalil Ali Haydar entitled "Crisis of Arab Administrations."Al-Mu'tamar publishes on page 8 a 500-word article by Abd-al-Sattar Jabr strongly criticizing some Iraqi political leaders for encouraging the neighboring countries to interfere in Iraq's internal affairs.Al-Mashriq publishes on the back page an 800-word article by Sabah al-Lami on the problems of 
 the Iraqi people.Al-Alam publishes on page 2 a 700-word article by Amir Badr Hassun praising Parliament Speaker Iyad al-Samarra'i for his recent statements criticizing the Iraqi officials and political leaders who issue provocative statements against Kuwait and other neighboring countries.Al-Alam publishes on pa ge 11 a 1,400-word article by Yahya al-Kubaysi entitled "Iranian War Reparations Between Reality, Illusion."Al-Alam publishes on page 11 a 750-word article by Khalid al-Qattan wondering as to why the Iraqi security forces failed to prevent the recent Al-Bayya goldsmith robbery when Baghdad Operations Command Spokesman said a few days earlier that the Al-Qa'ida Organization would target banks and goldsmith shops to finance its activities.Baghdad on 31 May publishes on page 2 a 550-word article by Lawyer Sufyan Abbas commenting on the concept of terrorism from a legal point of view.Al-Da'wah on 31 May carries on the last page a 500-word article by Ali al-Khayyat callin
 g on the political blocs to resort to the constitution in order to settle their disputes.Al-Sabah publishes on page 12 a 470-word article by Sana Husayn al-Dawudi entitled "Terrorism in Iraq, Legislation of Laws."Al-Sabah publishes on page 13 a 600-word article by Sadiq Kazim commenting on Iraq and its attempts to restore its political role.Al-Istiqamah publishes on page 5 a 650-word article by Ali Jasim commenting on the new strategy that the Al-Qa'ida Organization has started to adopt in order to finance the terrorist operations in Iraq by robbing goldsmith shops and banks.Al-Zaman publishes on page 2 a 300-word article by Sa'd al-Ubaydi who criticizes Kuwait for its negative stances against Iraq and how it should have been wiser in dealing with the issue of the Iraqi debts to it.Al-Zaman publishes on page 15 an 800-word article by Majid Ahmad al-Samarra'i entitled "Who Will Triumph in Today's Battle in Iraq?"Al-Zaman devotes half of page 16 to an article by Murtada al-Sha
 htur entitled "Spotlight on Democratic Adventure: Religious Institution Careless, or Mature."Al-Adalah publishes on page 2 a 400-word article by Sa'd Sahib al-Wa'ili who criticizes the politicians who want to monopolize power for themselves. The writer calls on the political factions to lower the ceiling of their demands in order to solve the problem of the issue of the prime minister and speed up the formation of the next government.Al-Adalah publishes on page 3 a 300-word article by Ali Khulayyif who calls on the political factions to give some concessions for the sake of the country in order to speed up the formation of the next government.Al-Mada publishes on the final page a 200-word article by Ali Husayn who criticizes the Iraqi politicians for not apologizing to the people although they have committed many mistakes against the people.Al-Mada devotes pages 4 and 5 of its economic supplement to an article by Ahmad Ubrayhi, deputy governor of the Iraqi Central Bank entit
 led "Oil Economy, Investment Licenses".Al-Mada devotes all of page 14 of its economic supplement to an article by Majid al-Shar entitled "Iraqi Banks Strategy, Directions of Financial Policy in Implementing Purposeful Projects."Al-Mada publishes on the final page of its economic supplement a 400-word article by Abbas al-Ghalibi entitled "Oil Prices, Budget."Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 31 May publishes on the front page a 150-word editorial that praises the character of former Iraqi President Abd-al-Karim Qasim, describing him as an honest politician who sought people's interests. The writer criticizes the current politicians for focusing on their personal interests and stealing the money of Iraq in the name of serving people.Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 31 May publishes on page 2 a 220-word article by Isam al-Bayyati who criticizes former US President George Bush for realizing too late that the decision to invade Iraq in 2003 was wrong and unwise. The writer criticizes former US 
 Ambassador to Iraq Paul Bremer for taking a number of bad decisions that negatively influenced Iraq's situation.Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 31 May publishes on page 3 a 250-word article by Sattar Jabbar who criticizes former Iraqi President Saddam Husayn for dragging Iraq into a war with Iran in which Iraq lost a large number of people and large amounts of money. The writer comments on the negative stances of the Gulf countries toward Iraq, adding that they supported and encouraged the former regime to enter that war and now they are asking for reparations from Iraq.Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 31 May devotes half of page 3 to an article by Abbas al-Nuri entitled "Who Deserves to Lead Iraq?"Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 31 May publishes on page 4 a 300-word article by Khalid Ibrahim who criticizes the government's decision to dissolve the Iraqi Airways Company, saying that the politicians have not solved their disputes with Kuwait or prevented it from harming Iraq. The writer comment
 s on the negative stances of Kuwait toward Iraq and how it has sought to weaken and insult it while foreign countries help and support it.Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 31 May devotes all of page 16 to an article by Hadi Hasan Ulaywi who discusses the life of former Economy Minister Dr. Ibrahim Kubbah, describing him as a good politician who positively improved Iraq's economy after 1958.Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 31 May publishes on page 17 a 900-word article by Hasan al-Khafaji who criticizes some religious clerics for issuing a number of bad fatwas that are against Islam and people's interests. The writer says that these bad fatwas have negatively influenced the situation in Iraq because the terrorists obey them.Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 31 May publishes on page 17 a 200-word article by Ghayath Abd-al-Hamid who criticizes Kuwait for its negative stances on Iraq and how it works against Iraq's interests. The writer calls on Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to deal firmly with Kuwait
  and prevent it from harming the country.Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 31 May publishes on page 17 a 300-word article by Salih Karim who criticizes Education Minister Abd Dyab al-Ujayli for issuing instructions to send the PhD desecrations of the Iraqi students to be assessed outside the country. The writer says that this decision is wrong as the Iraqi professors are good, efficient and more educated that their counterparts abroad.Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 31 May publishes on the final page a 350-word article by Wajih Abbas who criticizes the terrorists for killing the innocent people and stealing Iraq's money by robbing a number of banks. The writer calls on the politicians to rescue the people from their bad conditions and punish all those criminals.Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 31 May publishes on the final page a 170-word article by Abd-al-Zahrah al-Bayyati who says that three months have passed since the elections, yet the politicians have failed in solving their problems. The 
 writer calls on the politicians to keep their promises to the people who have been through several crises since 2003.Al-Bayan on 31 May publishes on page 5 a 300-word article by Intisar Abbas who comments on the economic situation of Iraq and how it faced a number of difficulties. The writer calls on the government to support the industries in Iraq especially the small ones, adding that it must provide people with their needs.Al-Bayan on 31 May publishes on page 6 a 400-word article by Abdallah Hamid al-Itabi who discusses the situation of Iraq throughout history as it faced a number of difficulties and crises and how a number of foreign entities intervened and influenced Iraq's politics. The writer calls on the politicians to be alert and rescue the country from its bad conditions by unifying their ranks.Al-Bayan on 31 May devotes half of page 13 to an article by Kamal al-Basri entitled "Absence of Good Citizenship: Coming Danger."Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 31 May publ ishes
  on page 13 a 270-word article by Jasim al-Saghir entitled "Legal, Political Framework for Enhancing, Supporting Civil Society."Al-Bayan on 31 May publishes on the final page a 300-word article by Qasim Muhammad who criticizes some bad media outlets and newspapers for spreading lies and rumors about the government. The writer calls on the journalists to be honest in conveying information to the people, adding that they should help rather than harm the political process in Iraq.Al-Bayyinah on 31 May publishes on the front page a 220-word editorial that criticizes the winning politicians for fighting each other over the senior posts while the people are suffering from several bad conditions. The writer calls on the politicians to solve their problems in order to provide the people with their needs.Al-Bayyinah on 31 May publishes on page 2 a 200-word article by Hamid al-Mukhtar who criticizes the politicians and senior officials for closing the streets in order to ensure their 
 safety. The writer comments on the difficult conditions of the people and how they are not respected and ignored by the politicians who seek their personal interests only.Al-Bayyinah on 31 May publishes on page 3 a 950-word article by Aziz al-Khitani entitled "Responsibility of State."Al-Bayyinah on 31 May publishes on page 11 a 250-word article by Muhammad Shalash al-Ukayli who calls on the politicians to keep their promises to the people who voted for them in the recent elections. The writer says that the government must provide the people with their needs, including a good economic and security situation, good public services and job opportunities.Al-Bayyinah on 31 May publishes on page 11 a 450-word article by Sami Jawad Kazim who criticizes the Saudi religious clerics for issuing a number of bad fatwas against the Shiites.Al-Bayyinah on 31 May publishes on page 11 a 500-word article by Hamid al-Jarah who comments on the difficult conditions of the Iraqis since 2003. The
  writer criticizes the politicians for not keeping their promises to the people, saying that they only focus on their personal interests. X. CORRUPTIONTariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 8 a 300-word report citing Iraqi Economist Salam Sumaysim as discussing the negative impact of the recent arrest of Private Basra Bank Director Hasan Kubbah for his financial violations on the private banking sector in the country.Baghdad on 31 May publishes on page 4 a 100-word report citing Karbala Governor Amal-al-Din al-Hirr as saying that the rate of administrative corruption at the Karbala Municipality Department is the highest in the governorate. (OSC plans no further processing)Al-Zaman publishes on page 2 a 100-word report citing Integrity Commission Chairman Rahim al-Ugayli as saying that the chairmen of three banks have been arrested for giving money from their banks to businessmen without following the normal procedures.Al-Bayyinah on 31 May publishes on the front page a 300-word re
 port saying that an arrest warrant has been issued against the chairman of the Al-Warqa Bank because of corruption and dubious deals.Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic EconomicDomestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalMilitaryTerrorism,LEGAL,FINANCIAL AND COMMODITY MARKETS,GOVERNMENT,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRSIP
City: 
Geographic Code: IRQ,IRN,USA,GBR
Geographic Name: Iraq,Iran,United States,United Kingdom,Middle East,Americas,Europe,North Americas,North Europe,WESTERN ASIA,FAR EAST,KUWAIT,AMERICAS,USA,GULF STATES,IRAN,IRAQ,PALESTINE,MEDITERRANEAN,NORTH AMERICA,BRUNEI,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,SOUTHEAST ASIA,ARAB STATES,MIDDLE EASTIP
Region: Middle East,Americas,Europe






-------------------- Tuesday July 7, 2009 T16:37:28Z --------------------
Title: Commentary by Omer Taspinar: "Democracy in Turkey and the United States"
Journal: Sabah Online
Text:
The second front includes a group that looks at the AKP government relatively more favorably and that believes that it is necessary to win back Turkey that had been lost during Bush's term. This front works closely with Obama and Hillary Clinton. Islam is not their reference point in the way they look at the AKP. Unlike certain names in the Bush administration, they do not see Turkey as the rising star of the Islamic world. They use a stronger criterion as a reference point: the EU and the democratic reforms.It is necessary to underline this point here. The second front adopts a very cautious "realistic" approach with regard to the civilian-military ties in Turkey due to the fact that it does not want to see political tension, a memorandum, or a crisis in Turkey. According to the second front, Ergenekon is a dark endless well. It creates further tension in the already polarized political atmosphere in Turkey. Therefore, rather than further analyzing Ergenekon, the second fron
 t looks at the democratic reforms which are more transparent and which can be monitored. It is exactly for this reason that it takes the EU reform process more seriously than the Ergenekon case. The 2007-2009 Process Was WastedSimilarly, they believe for the same reason that Turkey has missed an important opportunity in the aftermath of 22 July 2007. They have difficulty in understanding how, rather than preparing a broad constitution that is in line with the EU, the AKP -- slightly because it was trapped by the MHP (Nationalist Action Party) focused on a very difficult issue such as the headscarf. In conclusion, the second front in the United States believes that Turkey has wasted the period from 2007 to 2009 and that it has given the enemies of Turkey in the EU material to be used against Turkey.The fact that this group really wants Turkey to become an EU member is what basically differentiates it from the first group. The Neo-Cons from the Bush era hated Europe at least a
 s much as they hated the AKP and they believed that the AKP supported the EU reform process just because it wanted to weaken the Turkish Armed Forces which constituted the guarantee of secularity in Turkey.Given all this, it is not difficult to guess what kind of a position had been adopted by the Neo-Con front with regard to Ergenekon and the civilian-military ties. There could be nothing more normal for the EU enemies in Turkey and the EU enemies in the United States to have a natural alliance, but the unity between the ultra-nationalists and the Neo-Cons had not lasted long because both flows had become alienated from their countries. The Neo-Cons in the United States and the ultranationalists in Turkey rowed against the major democratic change in their societies. In conclusion the democratic wave both in the United States and in Turkey was revealed to be stronger than this kind of artificial alliances. Despite everything, there may be certain power centers, albeit margin
 al, in Washington that want an oligarchic Ankara that may be controlled more easily under military tutelage. The best answer to this is Turkey's fearless progress en route to the EU. In fact this is what the Obama administration wants. There are at least two years without elections ahead of us. There are no more pretexts. We have two long years during which there will be no need for populism. Turkey and the AKP should not miss this opportunity again. Ergenekon is important, but the EU process is more important.(Description of Source: Istanbul Sabah Online in Turkish -- Website of Sabah, center-right, mass appeal daily; owned by Calik Group, close to the ruling Justice and Development Party; URL: http://sabah.com.tr)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalMilitary,SOCIAL ISSUES,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Istanbul
Geographic Code: TUR,USA
Geographic Name: Turkey,United States,Europe,Americas,South Europe,North Americas,MEDITERRANEAN,TURKEY,NORTH AMERICA,WESTERN ASIA,BRUNEI,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,EUROPE,SOUTHEAST ASIAIP
Region: Europe,Americas






-------------------- Wednesday June 2, 2010 T04:32:07Z --------------------
Title: Report by Aristotelia Peloni: "Possible Short Meeting Between Papandreou and Obama"
Journal: Ta Nea
Text:
Indicative of the shift which Washington appears to be making is the number one candidate for the post of new US Ambassador, who comes to Athens after the summer, to replace Daniel Speckhard, who completes his term.  Daniel Bennett Smith has taught Political Science at the Air Force Academy of the United States and his experience abroad includes serving in Berne, Istanbul, Ottawa, and Stockholm.  Nevertheless, according to diplomatic sources, his main advantage is that he is very close to the head of US diplomacy, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, with whatever this implies for the post he will take in Athens. SupportDiplomatic sources note that the alignment of US Vice President Joe Biden with the Greek-American Lobby, which pushes toward support for the Greek government, is indeed a factor that plays a role.  In any event, diplomatic sources point out that US President Barack Obama wants to support the government of Y. Papandreou but, for the time being, it may only take 
 the form of political support with statements and symbolic gestures.Already, there have been consultations on the possibility of a visit by Greek Prime Minister Yeoryios Papandreou to Toronto for the G20 Summit Meeting, where essential reforms that are required in the financial system are expected to be discussed.  At the Summit Meeting, it is possible that Papandreou will hold a short meeting with the US President, who will be expected to reiterate his support for Y. Papandreou and his initiatives to confront the crisis.(Description of Source: Athens Ta Nea in Greek -- Left-of-center daily)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International EconomicInternational PoliticalLeader,EUROPEAN UNION,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Athens
Geographic Code: GRC,CAN,USA
Geographic Name: Greece,Canada,United States,Europe,Americas,Balkans,North Americas,SOUTHERN EUROPE,MEDITERRANEAN,EUROPE,GREECE,NORTH AMERICA,WESTERN EUROPE,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Europe,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T23:13:46Z --------------------
Title: El Pais editorial piece on 1 June; place not specified: "Multilateral Cooperation"
Journal: El Pais
Text:
Obama's message is clear: the United States is no longer a pro-war country and is making diplomacy its chief tool for countering the threats looming over it. Multilateralism is the new order that the President is seeking in continuing to confront extremist violence, but also in coping with other security challenges such as the proliferation of nuclear weapons and materials. The US chief executive is thus acknowledging that although his country remains influential in the concert of nations, the only way to defeat terrorism, and enemies such as Al Qaeda, is through cooperation and that armed confrontation is no longer the only option.The multilateral diplomacy that the new strategy is about is not confined to cooperation in combating the various forms of violence. By including aspects such as the battle against climate change or cyber threats and even by emphasizing the need to end dependency on fossil fuels and to move towards green energy, Obama is sending the message that hi
 s country is taking a broader view on the other causes of insecurity in the world. And these issues must necessarily be discussed and decided on in the international arena.In tackling the problems that the economic crisis has caused the United States, compounding the impact that the country's involvement in conflicts such as those in Iraq and Afghanistan have had on the nation's finances, Obama is acknowledging that national security begins with a renewed focus on the domestic economy, which is "the source of our power." Hence his announcement of fiscal policies that will enable it to grow, provide new opportunities, and return to the path of prosperity leading to a safer nation.The only reference to Latin America in his national security proposal has to do with the US-Mexico border, where the authorities will bolster their presence to combat illegal immigration, drug trafficking, and gunrunning. Relations with Colombia are a question mark. One can assume that as part of the
  proposed multilateral approach, cooperation on security will be bolstered. But the US economic belt-tightening may also mean cuts in support for our country.With this new strategy Barack Obama has told his country and the world that he has heard them and heeded their call for a change in course. The question is whether the chief executive possesses sufficient leadership to enable his nation to undertake the changes that it needs and whether he will succeed in rallying international organizations, or countries like China and Russia, around his proposal. At least he has taken a step forward in asserting that "our strategy starts by recognizing that our strength and influence abroad begins with the steps we take at home."(Description of Source: Cali El Pais in Spanish -- Website of Pro-Conservative Party daily; URL: http://www.elpais.com.co)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
  holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalLeader,SOCIAL ISSUES,LEGALIP
City: Cali
Geographic Code: USA
Geographic Name: United States,Americas,North Americas,COLOMBIA,NORTH AMERICA,USA,AMERICAS,EUROPE,SOUTH AMERICA,LATIN AMERICAIP
Region: Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T21:34:30Z --------------------
Title: Analysis by Ivan Brisco, researcher for the Clingendael Institute in The Hague: "Elections in Colombia: A European Perspective"
Journal: elespectador.com
Text:
Consequently, the result of the first ballot of the Colombian elections will not have the same media and political impact that the vote in 2002 did.  After that election, the EU embarked upon an urgent revision of its support for peace in Colombia:  The FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forced of Colombia) joined the EU's list of terrorist organizations, and Europe resigned itself to intensifying the internal war.  Civil society, horrified, could never accept Uribe and exhibited emphatic rejection during his visit to the European Parliament in 2004.The irony of Europe's current lack of interest is unavoidable.  Despite his well-known acts of public pantomime - which are indeed reported in the European press - Antanas Mockus comes close to the model of political leadership desired for Colombia.  His specialty seems to be power with a soft touch, i.e., the influence of a virtuous example and ethical values rather than the tough alternative from the United States:  military might and co
 ercion.Plan Colombia and its conversion into the policy of democratic security for domestic consumption roused visible discomfort in European diplomacy.  It is a fact that Europe never spared contributions to Colombian development:  around half of the total $972 million in aid laid out for the country in 2008.  It did so with mistrust and the suspicion that it was alleviating the collateral damage of a military offensive without resolving the roots of the conflict:  an absentee government and extreme inequality.Mockus continues to be a mystery outside his country, but his words are in tune with the ambivalence toward the Uribist era.  Furthermore, he presents a figure surprisingly similar to the style of the new politicians on the continent:  very media-savvy, apparently honest, and carrying no baggage from the past.  He might be able to get along perfectly well with Nick Clegg, Great Britain's new deputy prime minister, or perhaps Papandreou in Greece.Nevertheless, Mockus's
  European profile would not be able to plug the holes in the EU's foreign policy.  The European countries lost their diplomatic compass in Latin America long ago, an entire region where the rise of the Bolivarian Alliance, Brazil's geopolitical ambitions, and the ever more extensive crisis caused by the drug trafficking routes have generated lukewarm reactions or absolute apathy.Generally speaking, Europe wants a rapid return to Latin American normality, understood as an ever stronger regional integration of stable countries.  It wants to sign strategic agreements and hold successful summit meetings.  It fears inflationary policies, border skirmishes, and having recourse to arms by governments and citizens.  Its policy on narcotrafficking, explicitly described in the 1999 Plan Panama, is a model of rationality based on the concept of "shared responsibility."  At the same time, the EU has not succeeded in disagreeing publicly with using military campaigns to fight drugs, or r
 educe its steadily growing population of cocaine users.Based on its attachment to legality, Europe's preference would undoubtedly be Mockus, but Europe's current fear of instability and its lack of a clear strategy for the region tend in reality to foster a fairly conservative policy.  In the case of Mockus, such fears abound; he lacks a political party and a support structure.  Raul Alfonsin, a model of republican virtue and president during Argentina's post-dictatorial era, was eaten up by splits and hatred in his own cou ntry.  A Europe in deep crisis would have no problem going along with Santos or Sanin.  The truth is that it does not have the wherewithal to support any another path.(Description of Source: Bogota elespectador.com in Spanish -- Website of right-leaning daily owned by Bavaria Group and Santodomingo family; URL: http://www.elespectador.com)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtaine
 d from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational EconomicInternational PoliticalLeaderNarcotics,EUROPEAN UNION,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Bogota
Geographic Code: COL,DEU,ITA,ESP,GBR,USA
Geographic Name: Colombia,Germany,Italy,Spain,United Kingdom,United States,Americas,Europe,South Americas,North Americas,North Europe,South Europe,SPAIN,IBERIA,MEDITERRANEAN,COLOMBIA,NORTH AMERICA,USA,AMERICAS,SOUTHERN EUROPE,EUROPE,SOUTH AMERICA,WESTERN EUROPE,NETHERLANDS,LATIN AMERICA,EUROPEAN UNIONIP
Region: Americas,Europe






-------------------- Wednesday August 5, 2009 T09:06:44Z --------------------
Title: Report Sees Colombia's FARC as 'Main Destabilizing Factor' in Andean Region
Journal: El Pais.com
Text:
The Colombian guerrilla, increasingly weaker, has become, paradoxically, the main destabilizing factor in the region after having set up in neighboring countries, thanks to political complicities, their rearguard, arms provisioning, and cocaine trafficking networks.The discovery, in a hiding hole of FARC's Front 43, of five Swedish AT-4 rocket launchers capable of destroying armored vehicles and fortified facilities has raised the alarm in Colombia.  Emails found in computers confiscated from Raul Reyes, number two of the guerrilla, had information dated January 2007 stating that Venezuelan Generals Hugo Carvajal, head of military intelligence, and Cliver Alcala, Hugo Chavez's right-hand men, had placed in the hands of FARC "85-mm antitank rockets."  The pieces started to fit together then.  "We gave Sweden the serial numbers," explained a source from Colombia's defense ministry.  "On 20 June they confirmed that the weapons had been sold to the Venezuelan Army.  It is obvious
  that they diverted them here."Sweden is still waiting for an explanation from Chavez.  From the Ecuadorian side, a video of FARC's military leader Mono Jojoy, issued last week, confirmed that they had funded President Rafael Correa's election campaign, information that can also be found in Reyes' computers.Once more on the ropes, Chavez and Correa decided to defend themselves by attacking.  The insults leveled at the Colombian Government found an easy target in Bogota's decision to allow its main ally, the United States, to use military bases as compensation for the closing down of the Ecuadorian Manta Base.Chavez froze relations with Bogota, and Correa, who had broken off diplomatic ties in 2008 after the attack against Reyes' camp in Ecuador, declared a trade war and imposed duties on over 1,300 products.  Both countries have started an attack in Latin American forums to isolate Colombia, which they state is "the main threat for South America.""Quito and Caracas use the i
 ssue of the bases as a smokescreen," Colombian analyst Alfredo Rangel says.  "The agreement only entails giving the US army greater access to five bases, without increasing the number of troops."Under the grainy fire of hostile neighbors, the Colombian Government has followed a pacifying policy, and has considered taking Chavez and Correa to international courts for supporting a drug trafficking guerrilla considered to be a terrorist group by the European Union and the United States.Until now, Ecuador had been the one taking Colombia to the courts for spraying illegal crops along the border and for the bombing that killed Raul Reyes and 25 other people.  Not only that:  the Ecuadorian public attorney's office has made every effort to arrest, due to that attack, Juan Manuel Santos, former defense minister of Colombia and potential candidate to the presidency.  Interpol has rejected the arrest warrant issued by Judge Daniel Mendez, known for releasing renown FARC members arres
 ted in Ecuador.The attack against Santos has put an end to Colombia's patience.  The opposition has closed ranks around the government and former minister, and increasingly more voices are demanding a forceful action by Alvaro Uribe's government, which would include formally accusing Caracas and Quito of violating UN resolutions.The European Union has already backed Uribe, but it can do little in this crisis.  OAS Secretary General Jose Miguel Insulza's offer to mediate has been regarded with suspicion.  The American body has in its possession all the material confiscated from the FARC, and Colombian official circles are starting to miss "clearer actions."  A recent editorial in the influential magazine Semana severely criticized Insulza for his role in the Honduran crisis, accusing him of being a "terrible negotiator" and of being more concerned about keeping Chavez's support and that of the Bolivarian axis in order to guarantee his re-election as head of the OAS.(Descripti
 on of Source: Madrid El Pais.com in Spanish -- Website of El Pais, center-left national daily; URL: http://www.elpais.com)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalMilitaryNarcoticsTerrorism,SOCIAL ISSUES,LEGAL,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Madrid
Geographic Code: COL,ECU,ESP,USA,VEN
Geographic Name: Colombia,Ecuador,Spain,United States,Venezuela,Americas,Europe,South Americas,North Americas,South Europe,SPAIN,IBERIA,COLOMBIA,NORTH AMERICA,USA,AMERICAS,ECUADOR,SOUTHERN EUROPE,EUROPE,SOUTH AMERICA,VENEZUELA,WESTERN EUROPE,LATIN AMERICA,ORGANIZATION OF AMERICAN STATESIP
Region: Americas,Europe






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T18:41:40Z --------------------
Title: Cuba: Officer Said To Admit Reservists Training in Case of US Attack, Uprising
Journal: PayoLibre.com
Text:
A FAR major, who prefers to remain anonymous, explained that the objective of the mobilizations is to train reservists in the event of a military confrontation with the United States or a people's uprising in Cuba.According to the source, the country's leaders are carrying out these activities two or three times a year to keep the reservists well-trained. "This is only preparation for something that may never happen," he added.The source explained that the majority of the mobilized are heads of households and people who, having done their military service, are beginning to lead a normal life.He added that this affects their day-to-day because they are not psychologically prepared for military life, much less when there is a threat of internal war or a war with a power such as the United States of America.Some reservists, he went on, do not want to be mobilized, but they are threatened with dismissal from their work centers or having to face problems in their social milieu.Bec
 ause of the social problems with Cubans that the island's government is facing, officials have taken repressive measures that range from beatings of individuals to psychological intimidation, as in this case.(Description of Source: Miami PayoLibre.com in Spanish -- Miami-based website run Pablo Rodriguez featuring reports contributed by independent journalists in Cuba; URL: http://www.payolibre.com)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: DissentDomestic PoliticalInternational Political,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRSIP
City: Miami
Geographic Code: CUB,USA
Geographic Name: Cuba,United States,Americas,Caribbean,North Americas,CUBA,NORTH AMERICA,CARIBBEAN,FLORIDA,LATIN AMERICA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T11:46:58Z --------------------
Title: Turkey: 'Extremely Right-Wing' Israeli Govt Said To Blame for Raid on Convoy
Journal: Today's Zaman Online
Text:
around 10,000 tons of relief supplies to Gaza left the territorial waters of Cyprus yesterday.The port of Gaza and many boats nearby were decorated with Palestinian and Turkish flags and balloons with pictures of Palestinians killed by Israeli forces. Israel had announced that it would seize the ships and arrest their passengers earlier, and constantly harassed the flotilla along the way. But then Israel did the unexpected. At 4:30 a.m. on Monday the Israeli army launched an operation against the aid flotilla. In the attack, carried out 77 miles from Israeli waters, Israeli forces boarded the ships from helicopters. They opened fire on civilians using silencer-equipped weapons at close range. Disproportionate force was used against a civilian ship that had a white flag hoisted in international waters. The result: 18 dead and 60 people, including the captain of the Greek ship, wounded with one in serious condition.Speaking in Arabic, Israeli Army Spokesperson Afihay Adrai said
  they applied the Israeli government's decision to prevent the propaganda fleet, took over the smaller ships and responded only when they were met by resistance on the larger main ship, the Mavi Marmara, noting that the operation took place in international waters. Israel's territorial waters extend 12 miles from the shore. The ships, carrying close to 700 volunteers including women and children, are not warships. They are aid ships. There are 1.5 million people living in Gaza. One out of every five people in Gaza lives at the threshold of hunger. Gaza is under Israel's blockade. The aid convoy was the ninth attempt to break the sea blockade.Turkey, Arab countries and the EU have reacted harshly. Turkey requested urgent information from Israel, announced that it would recall its ambassador and demanded the release of the ships. Palestine declared a three-day mourning period. The Hamas government declared the day of the attack "Freedom Day" and called the people who were kill
 ed in the attack "martyrs of the siege." The Arab League convened hurriedly in Cairo. Greece canceled a planned joint air exercise with Israel. Israel banned all travel to Turkey. Israeli tourists in Turkey were asked to return to Israel.Israel intervened in humanitarian aid using force and shed blood. Israel was expected to stop the ships, but the flotilla did not expect the intervention to take place before the ships entered Israeli waters or an armed attack. It's obvious that this was not expected because Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Chief of General Staff Gen. Ilker Basbug and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu were all making visits abroad. The outcry in Ankara started early on Monday morning. An assessment meeting was held at the Prime Ministry under the chairmanship of Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc. Erdogan is cutting short his Latin America trip and Basbug is cutting short his Egypt trip and returning to Ankara. Turkey will not just condemn this attack. Wh
 ile the problem is not a new crisis between Turkey and Israel, we are heading towards a rupture between the two countries that will take years to repair. Turkey is not Gaza. Turkey is not Egypt. Turkey is not Lebanon. The government, the state, intellectuals, all political parties from the far left to the far right, the Turkish Parliament and civil society organizations in Turkey will all react strongly. Turkey will press for justice in the international legal arena. There will be a rapid decline in political and military relations between Turkey and Israel.Israeli hawks believe the entire world except the US and some Western countries are against them and that the only way they can defend Israel's existence is by using force. Israel, which is used to attacking civilians in Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon, is not hesitant about adding Turkey to this list. Since the Israeli cabinet had convened when the ships were en route, it means the Israeli government was prepared to shed
  blood . Israel has this kind of courage. It is not afraid of the world's opinion. Real bullets are used instead of rubber bullets. Methods such as tear gas are not used. It is an operation that sees civilians as military targets. Where does Israel get the courage to shed blood in international waters?In the end, Turkish-Israeli relations are on the brink of entering a new tense period. Hawks in Israel and the radical right-wing government is knowingly and willingly creating tension. Israel believes creating tension will increase public support for the current government. We should not blame the Israeli people for this incident. We need to blame the extremely right-wing Israeli government. Israeli intellectuals who defend replacing violence-based policies with peaceful policies need to be supported. Furthermore, Arab and Muslim countries carrying Turkish flags need to re-evaluate Turkey's place in the Arab and Muslim world along with the realities of their streets.(Descripti
 on of Source: Istanbul Today's Zaman Online in English -- Website of English-language daily published by the Zaman media group, supported by Nurcu Sect leader Fethullah Gulen; URL: http://www.todayszaman.com)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalMilitary,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Istanbul
Geographic Code: TUR,ISR,GZ,GRC,USA,LBN,EGY
Geographic Name: Turkey,Israel,Gaza Strip,Greece,United States,Lebanon,Egypt,Europe,Middle East,Americas,Africa,South Europe,Balkans,North Americas,North Africa,NORTH AFRICA,LEBANON,MEDITERRANEAN,TURKEY,WESTERN ASIA,CYPRUS,ASIA,SOUTHERN EUROPE,AFRICA,EUROPE,EGYPT,MIDDLE EAST,ARAB STATES,WESTERN EUROPE,ISRAEL,PALESTINEIP
Region: Europe,Middle East,Americas,Africa






-------------------- Wednesday June 2, 2010 T01:28:54Z --------------------
Title: "Hariri Meets Iranian Envoy on Bilateral Ties" -- The Daily Star Headline
Journal: The Daily Star Online
Text:
Wednesday, June 02, 2010BEIRUT: Prime Minister Saad Hariri will pursue his regional tour this weekand is expected to fly to Jordan, Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia in the nextfew days.Hariri held talks with Syrian President Bashar Assad on Monday and briefed himabout his visit to Washington last week. Hariri described his talks with Assadas 'very good.'On Tuesday, Hariri held talks with newly-appointed Iranian Ambassador GhandafarRukn Abadi. The meeting was attended by Hariri-s adviser Mohammad Shatahand the head of his office Nader Hariri.The premier also held talks with Armenian Ambassador Ashod Goutcherian at theGrand Serail, with talks focusing on bilateral ties.Following the meeting, Abadi told reporters he discussed with HaririLebanese-Iranian bilateral ties, in addition to the meetings he held withHariri-s father slain former Premier Rafik Haririin the nineties.'We agreed on the necessity of reviving economic and trade relationsbetween our two countries in various secto
 rs, especially in the sciences andeducation fields,' he said.Abadi added that he agreed with Hariri to 'open a new page in theofficial relations between our two countries,' and the necessity tosupport the resistance at this stage.Abadi saluted Hariri-s stances 'in Lebanon or during his visit tothe United States, where he stressed on the issue of resistance and mentionedthe Israeli aggressions.'Media reports Tuesday said Hariri informed US President Barack Obama thatLebanon would have no excuse to allow arms into the country if Israelimplements all international resolutions and withdraws from occupied Lebaneseterritories.Hariri also told US officials that Arab countries, including Lebanon and Syriause the language of peace while Israel continuously adopts the approach of warand threats.The premier also stressed Lebanon-s full implementation of UN SecurityCouncil Resolution 1701, which put an end to the summer 2006 war with Israeland asked for more US military assistance for t
 he country.The Iranian ambassador and Hariri also condemned Israel-s attack on aGaza-bound ships convoy and stressed the necessity 'to take practicalsteps so as not to repeat such awful acts again,' according to Abadi.Asked whether Hariri would visit Tehran soon, Abadi said: 'There is anopen invitation for Prime Minister Hariri, and we welcome his visit anytime hewants.'Answering another question on whether he fears a war in the region after theIsraeli raid on the Gaza-bound aid fleet, the Iranian ambassador said Israelwas 'fearful, stressed and panicked and the latest Turning Point drillsare a clear example.''On the other hand,' Abadi added, 'the Lebanese people areliving in peace and tranquility and nothing could frighten them.''I don-t think that it will be easy for the Israeli enemy to carryout any war on Lebanon, in light of the past experiences and the situation onthe Lebanese scene, especially the unity that we witness in Lebanon and thesolidarity of the free people i
 n the world with Lebanon against the Zionistoccupation,' he added.(Description of Source: Beirut The Daily Star Online in English -- Website of the independent daily, The Daily Star; URL: http://dailystar.com.lb)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic EconomicInternational EconomicInternational PoliticalLeaderMilitary,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Beirut
Geographic Code: EGY,IRN,ISR,JOR,LBN,SAU,SYR,TUR,USA
Geographic Name: Egypt,Iran,Israel,Jordan,Lebanon,Saudi Arabia,Syria,Turkey,United States,Africa,Middle East,Europe,Americas,North Africa,South Europe,North Americas,LEBANON,MEDITERRANEAN,NORTH AMERICA,WESTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,SAUDI ARABIA,MIDDLE EAST,ARAB STATES,GULF STATES,IRAN,ISRAELIP
Region: Africa,Middle East,Europe,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T21:01:09Z --------------------
Title: Commentary by Khalid al-Shami: "The Egyptian Regime Faces More Embarrassment and Confusion on Gaza after the Israeli Attack on the Freedom Flotilla"
Journal: Al-Quds al-Arabi Online
Text:
in the policy of the Egyptian Regime toward the Rafah border crossing? Can it provide a cover for a permanent opening of the crossing by exploiting the enormous international sympathy caused by massacre? Or will it not affect Egypt's policy toward the Rafah border crossing?These legitimate questions will doubtlessly be the subject of a wide controversy on the Egyptian and Arab political and media arenas over the coming days. It is difficult to predict the answers. But it is certain that the massacre will increase the embarrassment the Regime faces domestically and regionally over Gaza and will further increase the confusion that already mars the official Egyptian position on this thorny dossier.The Egyptian Foreign Ministry issued a statement last week in which it expressed readiness to allow all relief convoys to enter into Gaza, whether they come overland or by sea. This took observers by surprise, for no one had asked Egyptian authorities to allow the latest convoy to ente
 r through Al-Arish Port. For mysterious reasons, the Foreign Ministry withdrew this statement a few hours after it was published on the Egyptian TV site. None of the governmental newspapers published it the following day. This measure coincided with a visit to Israel by a senior Egyptian official, something which indicates there were joint arrangements to face this new challenge to the siege.It is useful to observe the following:1 - What Israel did at dawn yesterday is not merely piracy or State terrorism. It was an outright military action and an aggression on sovereign States in international waters. This is theoretically sufficient to cause a war. Civilian ships that raise the flags of their home countries in international waters are moving pieces of the lands of these countries, so intercepting them is a violation of international law in addition to being a direct threat to international security.2 - With this action, Israel is conveying another clear message that it is 
 a State above the law and that can engage in debauchery against any one it wants at sea. Here it is delivering a new slap to its European allies a few months after it violated their sovereignty in the assassination of Al-Mabhuh.3 - A wing in the Egyptian Regime will use this message to affirm the "wisdom" of the policy adopted on Rafah and the necessity of its continuation. It will argue that Israel which does not balk at violating the sovereignty of States that are members in the EU or NATO will not hesitate to bomb the crossing if Egypt decided to open it. This fits with the fact that the Regime does not want to see itself in a state of being unable to retaliate, as happened during the latest Israeli aggression on Gaza.4 - Israel will read this situation in a way that entrenches what it has come to consider as acquired rights to launch raids on the area of the crossing since the last aggression. These are the only raids that are semi-continuous and are meant as a message t
 o terrorize the Egyptian side more than terrorize Gaza itself.5 - The Egyptian Regime has employed almost the same diplomatic expressions used by France in condemning the Israeli attack on the flotilla. This ignores the fact if the Rafah crossing had been open in a permanent and regular way there would have been no siege to begin with and there would have been no need for this or any other convoy.The dilemma of the media discourse of the Regime is clear in that it sometimes blames "Palestinian divisiveness" for the closure of the crossing and then contradicts itself when it denies that the crossing is closed to begin with.Egyptian TV celebrated some days ago the entry of what it said was a convoy from the United Arab Emirates carrying 6,000 tons of medical aid, in an indication that there is no closure fro m the Egyptian side and that the Rafah crossing is always ready for the entry of medical aid. Further, some 6,000 Palestinians crossed it over the past month.Irrespective 
 of the fact that what is between France and Gaza does not resemble from near or far what is between Egypt and Gaza, what the Egyptian Regime can do greatly exceeds what all the other parties can do if there is a political will to break the siege. Actually the Arab position, particularly the Egyptian position, represents the principal support in international forums for the continuation of the Israeli siege.6 - The semi-intimate relationship that currently links the Egyptian Regime with the extremist rightist Government in Israel, even though it is the most hostile to Egypt itself since the signing of the Camp David Treaty, represents in reality an odd situation in comparison with the traditionally tense or lukewarm relations between the Egyptian Regime and rightist Israeli governments in the past. This situation cannot be understood in isolation from the conditions on the regional and international scene or the internal situation in Egypt. This is an extremely complicated do
 ssier, but this strong relationship with the Netanyahu Government has become one of the principal pillars on which the Regime relies to protect its strategic relationship with Washington from a deterioration that appeared clearly last month when Washington condemned, in a harsh and unprecedented terms, the extension of the Emergency Law while Israel alone supported the Regime in the extension decision that provoked condemnations from all Egypt's traditional friends in the West.7 - The Egyptian Regime which is preoccupied with a "decisive" elections year, in the words of the Egyptian President, does not want to risk angering Israel and consequently coming under more American pressures on guarantees for the transparency and fairness of the elections. Further, any positive change in the policy toward the Rafah crossing under these conditions will mean, from Egypt's point of view, retreating in the face of HAMAS's attitude which refuses to sign the Egyptian reconciliation paper.
  This would undermine the traditional moral authority of the Egyptian role in Palestine and the region.8 - The relations between the Egyptian Regime and the HAMAS movement have reached a state of congestion and tension that is almost unprecedented since an official relationship was established between the two sides after the signing of the agreement among the Palestinian factions in Cairo in 2004. This is the agreement that was abrogated by the Palestinian President in 2007.The series of accusations HAMAS launched lately against Cairo concerning Palestinian detainees in Egypt reflects the extent of the deterioration in relations and also HAMAS's desire to resume the dialogue. But Cairo insists that HAMAS should sign the document first, as the PA has done, as a condition for resuming relations.Thus the Gaza Strip appears to be a victim in this diabolical circle of regional and local complications and conditions that do not show any signs of an imminent breakthrough. But the E
 gyptian side keeps the door open to radical changes that would end a siege that lasted for three years and has become a moral burden that actually constitutes a siege of the Egyptian Regime itself.(Description of Source: London Al-Quds al-Arabi Online in Arabic -- Website of London-based independent Arab nationalist daily with strong anti-US bias. URL: http://www.alquds.co.uk/)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International Political,GOVERNMENTIP
City: London
Geographic Code: GBR,EGY,GZ,ISR,WE,USA
Geographic Name: United Kingdom,Egypt,Gaza Strip,Israel,West Bank,United States,Europe,Africa,Middle East,Americas,North Europe,North Africa,North Americas,UNITED KINGDOM,NORTH AFRICA,MEDITERRANEAN,NORTH AMERICA,USA,AMERICAS,AFRICA,EUROPE,EGYPT,MIDDLE EAST,ARAB STATES,WESTERN EUROPE,ISRAEL,PALESTINEIP
Region: Europe,Africa,Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T01:20:50Z --------------------
Title: "Arabs Are More Nuanced in Judging America's Behavior" -- The Daily Star Headline
Journal: The Daily Star Online
Text:
Tuesday, June 01, 2010For more than two decades, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has been thecore element that has shaped Arab public opinion of the United States. But thetenure of President George W. Bush and the Barack Obama phenomenon have taughtus that new factors are now shaping how millions of Arabs view the US.Obama secured very high approval ratings in the Arab region early in hispresidency, especially after the speech he gave in Cairo in June 2009. Morerecently, however, polls have suggested that a majority of Arabs does notbelieve that Obama is serious about the promises he gave then to improve USpolicy in the region.The problem with most of these polls is that they usually give us anunrealistic view of Arab attitudes toward the US since they assume that thePalestinian-Israeli peace process is the only factor affecting Arab opinion ofWashington. But since the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the United States, millionsof Arabs have started to judge the US through a more n
 uanced perspective basedon three main pillars.The first pillar is US relations with Arab regimes. Millions of Arabs realizedthat Washington-s support for authoritarian regimes in the region hasbeen an important contributor to the growing radicalization of the Arabcommunity. They-ve understood that the absence of democracy equalsunemployment and poverty and that Israel-s brutal and irresponsiblepolicies in Palestine and Lebanon are not the only causes of their dailyproblems, the poor standard of education, the low salaries or corruptgovernments.Some scholars disagree that democracy promotion is now one of the mostimportant factors shaping Arab attitudes toward the US. But if we were to askthe 40 percent of Egyptians who live under the poverty line what they need now,they would answer that they need a government that works to achieve socialjustice. Hence, what are their reactions when they see American officialspraising the Egyptian government-s 'performance' in economicreform
 ?Meanwhile, Arab civil society, independent media and reformers - whichnow have a crucial role in forging and influencing Arab public debate -are advocating day and night for US pressure on Arab regimes to begin politicalreform. That too has led to a prioritization of democracy promotion in the wishlist of Arab citizens when they think about the US and the West in general.The second pillar is what the Obama administration calls 'the USrelationship with the Muslim world', which he talked about in his speechin Cairo. The problem here is that it has remained talk. The Obamaadministration has tried to improve America-s image among Muslims withrhetoric alone and has exhibited no clear and comprehensive strategy. A yearafter the Cairo speech, Obama is less popular in some countries, according to asurvey conducted by the BBC last April. In Egypt alone, 55 percent said theydid not see any progress in American relations with the Muslim world.The third pillar, the classic one, is the 
 Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Thisused to be the main priority in terms of Arab opinion about the US, but thingsare different today. Divisions between the Palestinian factions and the declineand politicization of the resistance movement have muted reactions in the Arabworld regarding what is happening in the West Bank and Gaza.It is worth mentioning that the demonstrations that took place in Egypt duringthe recent waves of clashes in Jerusalem because of Israeli violation of theAqsa Mosque were organized by the Muslim Brotherhood in an attempt by the groupto flex its muscles and signal to the Egyptian regime that it can mobilize thepublic if it needs to. The rest of the Egyptian public, however, did not givethe same attention to what was happening in Jerusalem when compared to theattention given to the second intifada in 2002.It should be clear, then, that Arab public opinion of the US is passing througha transitional phase where new and more complex standards are being used
  tojudge American polices. Over the last two decades, authoritarian regimes haveworked hard to manipulate the US image in the eyes of the Arab public, but withthe rise of new media and the presence of an estimated 100 million youth, Arabcitizens are trying to develop their own image. That should be of the utmostconcern to Washington as it ponders its next moves in the Middle East.Mohamed A.B. Yossif is a Cairo-based journalist.This commentary first appearedat bitterlemons-international.org, an online newsletter that publishes views of Middle Easternand Islamic issues.(Description of Source: Beirut The Daily Star Online in English -- Website of the independent daily, The Daily Star; URL: http://dailystar.com.lb)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic EconomicInternational EconomicLeaderInternational Political
City: Beirut
Geographic Code: EGY,ISR,LBN,USA,WE
Geographic Name: Egypt,Israel,Lebanon,United States,West Bank,Africa,Middle East,Americas,North Africa,North Americas,NORTH AFRICA,AFRICA,LEBANON,MEDITERRANEAN,ARAB STATES,MIDDLE EAST,EGYPT,NORTH AMERICA,PALESTINE,AMERICAS,ISRAEL,USAIP
Region: Africa,Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T19:19:42Z --------------------
Title: Article by Chief Editor Abd-al-Bari Atwan: "Do Not Be Sad! The Achievement is Great"
Journal: Al-Quds al-Arabi Online
Text:
Netanyahu and members of his extreme right-wing government cannot imagine the magnitude of the great achievement that they presented to the Palestinian people and the Arab and Islamic nations by committing the massacre of the ships of the freedom flotilla in the Mediterranean Sea, killing about 20 people on board, mostly mujahidin, and wounding tens of others.It is true that we lost 20 martyrs, mostly Turks, but we won over more than 70 million of the Turkish people to support the primary central cause. They now stand firmly in the other trench against Israel.The Turkish blood -- which mixed with the blood of Algerians, Palestinians, and people from over 50 other Muslim and world nationalities -- was tantamount to a trigger of an overwhelming awakening all over Turkey that might prompt a large number of people to call for revenge through all means and ways.The massacres that Israeli governments commit, whether on ground in Gaza or at sea, by intercepting aid ships equal tens 
 of years of efforts and hundreds of billions that the Arabs and Muslims might spend to expose the ugly bloody face of Israeli arrogance and vainglory at the level of the entire world. Thanks to a group of mujahidin who decided to go to sea to show support for blockaded and hungered people in the Gaza Strip.These civilian volunteers who confronted Israeli injustice with boxes of medicines, sacks of cement and flour, and oil cases and who refused to submit to Israeli pirates' orders to go back, achieved miracles, which Arab armies failed to achieve. Hundreds of billions of dollars were spent to arm, train, feed, and fatten these armies.This flotilla of freedom came as a gift from God to support blockaded and hungered people in the Gaza Strip and as a divine thunderbolt that struck Israel and its allies in the core.First: This flotilla exposed the official Arab collusion with the blockade of Gaza, broke all the continuing media blackouts and deception, and brought the entire Pa
 lestinian issue, not just the blockade of Gaza, back to the fore;Second: The reactions that denounced and rejected this Israeli belligerence against unarmed people showed that the Arab governments, particularly those that signed peace treaties with Israel, are not interested in the tragedy of the blockaded people or the martyrs who sacrificed their lives to attract attention to their tragedy. For instance, Jordan and Egypt were contented with summoning the Israeli ambassadors in Amman and Cairo for protestation, exactly as did Sweden, Norway, and Spain;Third: For the first time, we see inter-Palestinian reconciliation closer than at anytime before. The Ramallah-based authority (PA) denounced the Israeli massacre, declared a three-day mourning to show solidarity with its victims, and called for an emergency meeting of the Arab League Council and for a meeting of the UN Security Council. This means that a genuine reconciliation can be achieved on the groundwork of resistance, 
 not the groundwork of bargaining and useless negotiations;Fourth: The Israeli massacre and piracy made Israel stoop to the level of piracy, with a basic difference that pirates at high seas do not represent a government that claims to be the only democracy in the region and a messenger of the values of Western culture. Moreover, these pirates were themselves subjected to death and in the best of cases appeared before Western courts as criminals. We hope that the Israelis, particularly Ehud Baraq who planned the massacre and Netanyahu who approved and blessed it, will face the same fate, that is to say, appear before international tribunals as war criminals;Fifth: This bloody criminal Israeli operation came as a lifeline for Iran and its president, Ahmadi-Nejad, because it showed the entire world that it is Israel, not Iran, that threatens world peace and se curity and commits crimes against humanity, one after another;Sixth: The British and US Governments' reaction was extre
 mely shameful. It represents a mark of disgrace in their history and truly threatens the lives of their soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan because of these two governments' flagrant bias to Israeli massacres. The British Government kept silent at a time when the administration of President Obama that sponsors the peace process only expressed regret over the loss of life. It said that it was working to learn the "circumstances" of this tragedy; andSeventh: The volunteers who were on board the Turkish ship Marmara, mostly MPs, politicians, and members of humanitarian organizations, showed rare courage for which they deserve to be congratulated when they refused to surrender to the Israeli commando forces that stormed their ship and attacked them. They resisted this force in a manly way with which they are credited. They were defending themselves and their dignity and aspiring to martyrdom as they stood like spears.Many lessons are learned from this glorious event. Foremost among
  them is that will is more powerful than all advanced modern weapons and that resistance, in all its forms, in the face of an arrogant enemy who does not respect treaties or laws is the ideal way to achieve the desired goals of freedom, independence, and justice.This jihadic group, which believes in the values of justice and supports powerless and hungered blockaded people, set an honorable example to the whole world by insisting on continuing its trip in spite of numerous difficulties. This group resisted all threats and acts of intimidation and terror.This bloody Israeli massacre, which targeted the flotilla and its heroes, marks the beginning of the countdown for the collapse of the odious Israeli racist regime. It also marks the emergence of an Arab and Islamic popular force that will outmatch the regimes of collusion and invented impotence and will establish the groundwork for all nations' unity behind the causes of right and justice.We say thank you to the Turkish peop
 le and their lively forces. We also say thank you to the Turkish Government, led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his comrade Abdullah Gul, for sponsoring convoys to break the blockade and for allowing its ports to be used as a staging point. The overwhelming majority of the Arab governments, particularly the large ones, have not taken such a step.And finally, we cannot forget or pretend to forget Shaykh Ra'id Salah, Bishop Kabbuchi, and all other honorable people who faced Israeli bullets with their chests that are filled with faith. They were not frightened by planes, bombs, and live bullets. They are the symbols of humanity before being symbols of the nation. We hope that they are well, so that they may resume the march and repeat the action.The blockaded residents of Gaza -- who invented the human bombs, made rockets, and entered history by engineering tunnels to break the blockade and reach the heart of Israeli settlements and military bases -- lined the coast to receive the
  heroes of the flotilla and their ships.They will be more faithful to the justness of their cause, the aim of which is not only to break the blockade, but also to return to Haifa, Jaffa, Al-Majdal, Al-Battani, Akko, Al-Falujah, Jerusalem, and every place in Palestine. They realized that they are not alone and that this dream of theirs will be achieved very soon.(Description of Source: London Al-Quds al-Arabi Online in Arabic -- Website of London-based independent Arab nationalist daily with strong anti-US bias. URL: http://www.alquds.co.uk/)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalMilitary,GOVERNMENTIP
City: London
Geographic Code: GBR,GZ,ISR,WE,USA,TUR,IRN,EGY,JOR
Geographic Name: United Kingdom,Gaza Strip,Israel,West Bank,United States,Turkey,Iran,Egypt,Jordan,Europe,Middle East,Americas,Africa,North Europe,South Europe,North Americas,North Africa,UNITED KINGDOM,MEDITERRANEAN,ITALY,TURKEY,WESTERN ASIA,ASIA,SOUTHERN EUROPE,EUROPE,MIDDLE EAST,GULF STATES,WESTERN EUROPE,ISRAEL,PALESTINEIP
Region: Europe,Middle East,Americas,Africa






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T08:13:46Z --------------------
Title: corrected version-- supplying missing text of selected items from the Egyptian press on 1 May. To request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
Journal: Egypt -- OSC Summary
Text:
http://www.ahram.org.eg/ http://www.ahram.org.eg/1. Front-page report on the Israeli aggression on the freedom fleet in international waters and Mubarak's denunciation of the excessive use of unnecessary force. (p 1; 800 words)2. Report on Mubarak's address to the Franco-African summit and Mubarak's meetings on the sidelines of the summit. (pp 1, 4-5; 8,000 words)3. Editorial denounces the "brutal massacre" committed by the Israeli forces in international waters. The paper describes the event as a "premeditated crime" and a "serious escalation that can blow things up in the region." It underlines that it is no longer acceptable of the international community to keep silent on the Israeli practices. It stresses the need for a "firm action that puts an end to this brutal Israeli hooliganism." (p 11; 350 words)4. Article by Dr Mustafa al-Fiqi examines the issue of relations between the Arab world and their non-Arab neighbors, such as Iran, Turkey and Ethiopia. The writer underli
 nes a number of points he views necessary to develop a vision of the region as "one integrated geographic and political unit despite differences." (P 11; 1,700 words)5. Article by Dr Anwar Abd-al-Malik examines the "national security strategy" which Obama presented on 27 May. (p 10; 1,400 words)Cairo Al-Akhbar --state-owned daily; root URL:http://www.elakhbar.org.eg http://www.elakhbar.org.eg1. Front-page report on the Franco-African summit and further detailed reports in inner pages. (p 1; 300 words)2. Editorial notes the commencement of the Consultative Council's mid-term elections and views the process as an important step that supports democratization and develops political practice. (p 6; 250 words)3. Article by Jalal Duwaydar says the criminal attack against the international freedom fleet is "just a link in a chain of abominable crimes against Arabs and Palestinians." The writer does not absolve the international community of responsibility because of its "consistent 
 silence on this deliberate violation of international legitimacy." The writer hopes the "coupist group in Gaza" will not take advantage of the Israeli aggression to "consecrate separatist tendencies or obstruct conciliatory efforts." (p 24; 800 words)Cairo Al-Jumhuriyah -- state-owned daily; root URL:http://www.gom.net.eg http://www.gom.net.eg1. Front-page report highlights Mubarak's address to the Franco-African summit. Further reporting on the summit is provided in inner pages. (p 1; 700 words)2. Front-page report highlights Mubarak's denunciation of the excessive use of force against innocent civilians and his emphasis on solidarity with Gaza. (p 1; 300 words)3. Article by Chief Editor Muhammad Ali Ibrahim points to the "new Israeli crime" which, according to him, "confirmed that the Hebrew state is governed by no law or canon...and cannot be classified among respectable states." "It is becoming more like a state of gangs and road robbers," the writer says. He expects the
  international community, especially the United States, to utter a few words of denunciation and then forget the "slap" which Israel dealt to the US President himself, who urged Israel to let the convoy pass. He sees the crime "targeting the entire world." "Israel is saying to the world don't consider even helping Palestinians," he says. He recalls how the entire world sympathized with George Galloway's convoy and presented Egypt as the party that collaborated with Israel to bar assistance to the Palestinians. He points to the "feeble statement" in which the White House "regretted" the deaths and stresses "America does not dare condemn Israel". He views that as "an act of duality that violates international norms, violates people's rights, and empowers Israel to go ahead with its racist practices." (p 3; 900 words)4. Article by Samir Rajab says Israel added to its blood-stained record another abominable crime that speaks of meanness and impudence. However, the writer expects
  Israel to obtain "forgiveness bonds" in the end, since the world does not dare condemn it. (p 20; 600 words)Cairo Al-Wafd -- opposition New Wafd Party daily; root URL:http://www.alwafd.org http://www.alwafd.org1. Front-page report denounces "the abominable Israeli massacre in international waters." (p 1; 500 words)2. Statement by Wafd Party reiterates the party's condemnation of the Israeli crime against the freedom fleet and blames the United States for "Israel's persistent criminal behavior." The statement urges the Egyptian government to "take more stringent measures" instead of sufficing with the "usual diplomatic measures." The party condemns the international community in general and the Arab countries in particular for sufficing with a "bystander's position". It urges Palestinians to unite the ranks and overcome differences. It views the Egyptian government step of summoning the Israeli ambassador as "insufficient" and underlines the need for "more stringent and more
  effective measures." (p 1; 600 words)3. Report on a demonstration organized by political powers and MPs in front of the Press Association to denounce the Israeli crime and demand the release of two deputies being held in Israel and the expulsion of the Israeli ambassador. (p 1; 250 words)4. Special page offers several reports noting Egyptian official and popular denunciation of the Israeli massacre. (p 5; 3,000 words)5. Article by Muhammad Shirdi warns the NDP that "change is definitely coming", even if the party employs all state resources in the service of its candidates. (p 16; 600 words)6. Article by Muhammad Amin notes "renewed talk about presidential candidates" in the wake of Dr Sayyid al-Badawi's triumph in Wafd Party elections. The writer points to the talk about Husam al-Badrawi as presidential candidate. (p 16; 600 words)Cairo Nahdat Misr --Independent daily; root URL:http://www.gn4nahdetmisr.com http://www.gn4nahdetmisr.com1. Interview with Wafd Party chairman e
 lect al-Sayyid al-Badawi, in which he views himself as Wafd's "last hope of reform" and warns the ruling party that "Wafd is coming." (p 7; 3,000 words)Cairo Al-Misri Al-Yawm --Yawm--Independent daily focusing on domestic issues1. Front-page report on Israel's crime against the freedom fleet, wide international condemnation and "belated Egyptian position." (p 1; 600 words)2. Report by Mahmud Jawish on the "early signs" of a new crisis between ElBaradei and a number of leading figures in the National Society for Change, who failed to persuade him to stay in Cairo and refrain from traveling outside the country. (p 1; 400 words)3. Article by Dr Hasan Nafi'ah says Israel must have lost its mind and conscience completely when it intercepted and attacked the members of a relief convoy. The writer believes that Israel could not have embarked on that lowly act if it were not sure of western collusion and Arab inaction. (p 5; 600 words)4. Article by Muhammad Amin examines whether Waf
 d Party election experience can represent the prologue for a major change in the Egyptian policy and whether the new chairman-elect aspires to fill the prime minister's position. (p 6; 700 words)5. Article by Chief Editor Majdi al-Jallad laments the fact that Arabs "sold the cause and now sleep in Israel's embrace." "Israel succeeds because it knows us more than we know ourselves," the writer says, pointing out that the most Arabs will do is "denounce the Israeli act," because all that rulers worry about is "keeping their seats". (p 18; 600 words)Cairo Al-Dustur -- Independent anti-regime daily newspaper1. Front-page report talks about an "Israeli crime" and "Arab spinelessness". (p 1; 600 words)2. Article by Chief Editor Ibrahim Isa admits that there is no point in going to the Consultative Council elections, since the elections will definitely be rigged and the NDP is to be declared winner. However, the writer stresses that boycotting elections is a "negative" and "ineffec
 tive" act and that it will definitely fail to bring the desired results. p 1; 600 words)3. Report by team of correspondents on public anger over the Israeli massacre and plans by political powers to organize a protest before the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. (p 2; 1,000 words)4. Article by Ayman Nur lashes out at the authorities for using rubber bullets against supporters of a candidate for Consultative Council elections. (p 3; 750 words)5. Article by Ibrahim Mansur says developments prove everyday that Israel is led by gangs and that peace does not work with these gangs. The writer regrets that no Arab country has taken the step of calling back ambassadors from Israel. "Egypt is preoccupied with the old president and his presence in the Franco-African summit," he says, paying tribute to Turkey. (p 4; 600 words)Cairo Rose Al-Yusuf --State-run daily newspaper1. Article by Chief Editor Abdallah Kamal voices his shock at the Israeli crime against a relief naval convoy. The write
 r says "Egypt assumed a clear and unquestionable position on the crisis from the first moment." He stresses that what Israel did placed the countries involved in the convoy in an "awkward position". He believes that Turkey in particular is facing a "harsh challenge" because any act it will take will "jeopardize its regional efforts". He notes that Turkey "lost all available chances to mediate between Syria and Israel." (p 1; 1,000 words)2. Article by Abd-al-Qadir Shuhayb says Israel committed a brutal massacre one day after it lost a diplomatic battle at the NPT revision conference. The writer stresses that denunciation and condemnation are no longer sufficient and that the world is required to embark on a move to lift the unjust siege on Gaza and punish the Israelis for their abominable crime. (p 2; 750 words)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding 
 use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalHuman RightsInternational Political,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: 
Geographic Code: EGY,FRA,GZ,ISR,TUR,USA,WE
Geographic Name: Egypt,France,Gaza Strip,Israel,Turkey,United States,West Bank,Africa,Europe,Middle East,Americas,North Africa,South Europe,North Americas,NORTH AFRICA,MEDITERRANEAN,TURKEY,NORTH AMERICA,WESTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,AFRICA,EUROPE,EGYPT,MIDDLE EAST,ARAB STATES,ISRAEL,PALESTINEIP
Region: Africa,Europe,Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T07:38:13Z --------------------
Title: The following lists selected items from the Egyptian press on 1 May. To request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
Journal: Egypt -- OSC Summary
Text:
http://www.akhbarelyom.org.eg/akhbarelyom/ http://www.akhbarelyom.org.eg/akhbarelyom/)Cairo Al-Ahram X Xxx (Cairo Al-Ahram -- state-owned daily newspaper of record; root URL:http://www.ahram.org.eg/ http://www.ahram.org.eg/)Cai ro Al-Ahram al-Arabi X Xxx (Cairo Al-Ahram al-Arabi -- state-owned weekly)Cairo Al-Ahram al-Iqtisadi X Xxx (Cairo Al-Ahram al-Iqtisadi -- state-owned economic weekly)Cairo Al-Ahram al-Masa'i X Xxx (Cairo Al-Ahram al-Masa'i -- state-owned daily)Cairo Al-Ahram Weekly X Xxx (Cairo Al-Ahram Weekly -- state-owned weekly)Cairo Al-Akhbar X Xxx (Cairo Al-Akhbar -- state-owned daily; root URL:http://www.elakhbar.org.eg/ http://www.elakhbar.org.eg)Ca iro Al-Arabi X Xxx (Cairo Al-Arabi -- weekly paper affiliated with the opposition Nasirite Arab Democratic Party, expresses nationalist and anti-US views)Cairo Al-Jumhuriyah X Xxx (Cairo Al-Jumhuriyah -- state-owned daily; root URL:http://www.gom.net.eg/ http://www.gom.net.eg Cairo Al-Musawwar X Xxx (Cairo Al-Musaww
 ar -- state-owned weekly magazine)Cairo Al-Wafd X Xxx (Cairo Al-Wafd -- opposition New Wafd Party daily; root URL:http://www.alwafd.org/ http://www.alwafd.org)Cairo Al-Usbu --an independent weekly newspaper with an Arab nationalist, anti-US orientation and a tendency toward sensationalism; root URL:http://www.elosboa.com/ http://www.elosboa.com)Cairo Rose al-Yusuf X Xxx (Cairo Rose al-Yusuf -- state-owned weekly political and intellectual magazine)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalHuman RightsInternational Political
City: 
Geographic Code: EGY,GZ,IRN,ISR,TUR,USA,WE
Geographic Name: Egypt,Gaza Strip,Iran,Israel,Turkey,United States,West Bank,Africa,Middle East,Europe,Americas,North Africa,South Europe,North Americas,NORTH AFRICA,AFRICA,ARAB STATES,EGYPT,NORTH AMERICA,LOUISIANA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Africa,Middle East,Europe,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T07:06:58Z --------------------
Title: Study Examines Pan-Arab Media Coverage of Palestinian Issues, Talks With Israel
Journal: Middle East -- OSC Summary
Text:
Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational Political
City: 
Geographic Code: WE,GZ,ISR,GBR,ARE,QAT,USA,SYR,SAU,EGY
Geographic Name: West Bank,Gaza Strip,Israel,United Kingdom,United Arab Emirates,Qatar,United States,Syria,Saudi Arabia,Egypt,Middle East,Europe,Americas,Africa,North Europe,North Americas,North Africa,LEBANON,MEDITERRANEAN,SAUDI ARABIA,ARAB STATES,MIDDLE EAST,GULF STATES,PALESTINE,ISRAELIP
Region: Middle East,Europe,Americas,Africa






-------------------- Wednesday June 2, 2010 T04:56:49Z --------------------
Title: Highlights: Somalia Daily Media Highlights 2 Jun 10
Journal: Somalia -- OSC Summary
Text:
AFP20100601950084 Mogadishu HornAfrik Media Online in Somali 01 Jun 10Text of report by privately-owned Somali HornAfrik Online text website on 1 JuneFighting in which heavy weapons were used by the warring sides broke out in Beerxaano locality in the outskirts of Beled Weyne town, central Somalia, this afternoon.The fighting involved government forces and Hisb al-Islam fighters. Two civilians are said to have been killed in the fighting. Many livestock were also killed during the fighting in the area, where most of the inhabitants are herders.Local residents fled the area fearing that there could be more fighting between the two sides.Efforts to get further details from the combatant sides were futile after both groups declined to comment on the fighting.(Description of Source: Mogadishu HornAfrik Media Online in Somali -- Internet site of largest radio and television broadcast station in Somalia, carries centrist/objective reporting;URL:http://www.hornafrik.com)Ten killed a
 s Islamists, government forces battle in Somali capitalAFP20100601950064 Gaalkacyo Radio Gaalkacyo in Somali 1015 GMT 01 Jun 10Text of report by Somali independent Radio Gaalkacyo on 1 JuneAt least 10 people were killed and dozens others wounded following heavy fighting and shelling between Somali government forces backed by AU peacekeepers and Islamist groups in Mogadishu on Monday.The fighting occurred in Hawl-Wadaag, Boondheere and Wardhiigley districts in the capital, where the two sides used various types of weapons including armoured vehicles. Our reporter in Mogadishu says the fighting broke out after insurgent gro ups attacked the bases of Somali government forces. Most of the victims suffered in the fighting were hit by artillery rounds. The shelling between the two sides destroyed civilian populated areas.The fresh fighting comes at a time when the Somali government said it will form a cabinet that will restore peace in the country. On the other hand, the Islamist 
 groups have threatened to seize the Somali presidential palace.(Description of Source: Gaalkacyo Radio Gaalkacyo in Somali )Somalia: Al-Shabaab Clashed With Against AMISOM, TFG Forces in MogadishuAFP20100527353001 Somali Memo in Somali 26 May 10(Unattributed report: "A Fight That Became Miracle to AMISOM and TFG Militia That Took Place This Afternoon in East of Mogadishu and Al-Shabaab Who Used Wonderful Tactics")Heavy fight between the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forces backed up by the Transnational Federal Government (TFG) militia forces and Islamic forces took place on the afternoon of 26 May in Mogadishu.This fight which started in Maanabooliyo through Baar Viat on 26 May afternoon was different than all other fights that had taken place this year in Mogadishu in terms of the way that the Islamic forces handled their fight.The Somali Memo, which followed the clash from the beginning, was trying hard to find the real story as to how the fight ends. The offi
 cers of Al-Shabaab mujahidin forces told us the order in which the fight took place.The fight started when the AMISOM forces with tanks and TFG forces rushed into the intersection of Maanabooliyo and Bar Viat, where AL-Shabaab mujahidin had a strong defense.Al-Shabaab officers ordered not to open fire on the enemy until they reach their base; however, Al-Shabaab mujahidin forces that were stationed in Habar Khadiijo and Bar Viat attacked the AMISOM and the TFG militia forces that were with them. Thus, a bloody clash took place.A senior Al-Shabaab officer told Somali Memo: "We were fighting from Bar Viat and Habar Khadiijo area, but our brothers, who were prepared, killed the apostate militias in Manoobooliyo. The apostate militias who were lead by the AMISOM forces safely reached at the intersection of Maanabooliyo and Kutubo Xoor. When the last truck carrying the AMISOM and TFG forces arrived at Kutuba Xoor, Al-Shabaab mujahidin, who were on top of the Italian Embassy build
 ing and in the trenches, opened fire on the enemy simultaneously. They were thinking that there are no forces to fight with, but from every corner a mujahidin came out and attacked them until there was no one alive."The fight got stronger and the AMISOM tanks were seen firing shots toward Villa Somalia, which encouraged AL-Shabaab mujahidin. Al-Shabaab realized that AMISOM were confused in the fight.The AMISOM tanks could not progress in the fight after all those forces that used to lead them in the streets were either killed or ran away when they saw how the fight was taking place.Every mujahidin that participated in the fight remembers God's call, particularly in Surah Al-Nisa (Verse: 103), that says that the enemy feels the pain as Muslims feel the pain; however, the difference is the hope that the infidels do not have in God and Muslims have, and Muslims will go to heaven. That is what basically brought every mujahidin to participate in the fight.It has been seen in the 
 clash that a mujahidin using an AK-47 to open fire on a tank hits it, but the shelling of the tank was not hitting the Islamic forces that were fighting against it.People who were told about this clash realized that Surah Al-Ahzab(Verses 22:24), which clarified that there people who tell the truth about their promise to God were among believers, and the other Verse that says the infidels will go back with their anger without reaching any success. The AMISOM tanks went back on 26 May afternoon to their bases with their drivers alarmed and suffering from the difficulties .The information from the battle added that the AMISOM tanks ran over many of the TFG militia bodies scattered on the slope of Hotel Amaana and the Italian Embassy. An Al-Shabaab officer said: "When the AMISOM tanks were rushing, they ran over bodies of the apostate militias that were shot by the mujahidin from the Italian Embassy."Anyway, the latest news is confirming that one of the tanks that was damaged in
  the chain and a truck that was burned are taken to the port on 2 May afternoon.The loss that the TFG militias and AMISOM forces have suffered in the fight will be a historical one that the Islamists and others will talk about. However, the most puzzling thing was the bodies ran over by tanks.The Somali Memowill display pictures of the fight and the bodies ran over b y the AMISOM tanks on 27 May "God willing."(Description of Source: Somali Memo in Somali; news website that updates daily and reports news with a clear bias towards Somali terrorist group Al-Shabaab; URL:http://www.somalimemo.net/ www.somalimemo.net.)Islamist militants clash with Ethiopian forces in southwestern SomaliaAFP20100601950016 Internet Midnimo (Internet Version-WWW) in Somali 31 May 10Heavy fighting is reported to have erupted last night between Islamist Al-Shabab militants and government forces backed by Ethiopian troops in Ceel Berde in Bakool Region, southwestern Somalia.The various kinds of weapons
  were used during the fighting. The fighting erupted after Al-Shabab forces attacked Ethiopian army base in the area from three different directions. The casualty figure is not yet known.Al-Shabab and the government forces have clashed several times in Ceel Berde, which is located along the border with Ethiopia.Al-Shabab controls most of Somali regions including the capital, Mogadishu, and has been engaging the transitional government forces in fierce battles for complete control of Somalia.(Description of Source: Internet Midnimo (Internet Version-WWW) in Somali )Somalia: Beled Weyne City Reported Calm Following FightingAFP20100601301003 Somaaljecel.com in Somali 01 Jun 10Beled Weyne, the capital of Hiiraan Region (central Somalia), was reported calm today. The city was the scene of clashes yesterday between allied interim government and Ahlu Sunnah wal Jama'a forces, and Hisb al-Islam. Nearly 10 people were killed and more than 10 others were wounded in the fighting.Interi
 m government and Ahlu Sunnah wal Jama soldiers who were along Hiiraan-Ethiopia border this past week attacked the city. The fighting was the fiercest around the airport and the hilly Janta Kundishe area. Yesterday (morning), these forces entered the eastern side of the city and remained there until evening, when they retreated. Reports say that nobody had control over the eastern part of the city last night. Hisb al-Islam fighters withdrew from the eastern sector of the city, retreating to the western part where Al-Shabaab Mujahidin Movement forces are stationed.Yusuf Ahmad Hagar Dabaged, one of the government officials who yesterday led the assault on Beled Weyne said their (government) troops were encamped in Janta Kundishe locality, adding that he did not know where insurgent forces had gone. Yusuf Dabaged said they planned to move into Beled Weyne to safeguard the safety of the residents. He added that they were determined to defend the city against insurgent invaders an
 d then proceed to the rest of the region.(Description of Source: Somaaljecel.com in Somali -- Independent website featuring news reports by Mogadishu-based reporter; intended audience is Somalis in the diaspora; URL:http://www.somaaljecel.com/ http://www.Somaaljecel.com )Somalia: TFG President Departs on Visit to France, GermanyAFP20100601527003 Boosaaso Radio Horseed in Somali 1130 GMT 30 May 10President Shayk Sharif of Transitional Federal Government of Somalia has left the country for France to participate in a conference expected to be held until 1 June.  The president's entourage includes Foreign Affairs Minister Ali Ahmed Jama Jingili.The conference, which is mainly between France and African countries, is taking place in Nice, France. Forty heads of state and prime ministers are expected to attend the conference expected to begin on 31 May and end on 1 June.  The Somali issue is expected to be discussed at that conference with a view to finding solutions to the curren
 t situation in the country.President Shayk Sharif is also expected to address the conference apart from holding separate meetings with heads of states taking part in the conference.  They are expected to pledge their support for the president and double their efforts to help the country.After the conference the President is expected to visit Germany where he will meet top government officials.  The talks will focus on relations between the two countries. President Sharif recently attended the conference on Somalia in Istanbul, Turkey.(Description of Source: Boosaaso Radio Horseed in Somali - independent)Somalia: Government Soldier Reportedly Surrenders to Islamist AuthoritiesAFP20100601527005 Baydhabo Radio Andalus in Somali 1000 GMT 30 May 10A soldier from the government troops has surrendered to the Islamic administration in Bay and Bakool regions. The soldier, who was stationed in Mogadishu, said he could not bear the difficult situation and government treatment of Muslim
 s. He said he repented from his previous actions adding that he was ready to work with the Muslims and fight alongside the Mujahidins and was ready to sacrifice for the sake of the religion of God. This is not the first time soldiers from the government side have surrendered to the Islamic administration.(Description of Source: Baydhabo Radio Andalus in Somali -- Al-Shabaab owned radio station)Ethiopian forces said order residents of southern Somalia to vacate homesAFP20100601950067 Gaalkacyo Radio Gaalkacyo in Somali 1015 GMT 01 Jun 10Text of report by Somali independent Radio Gaalkacyo on 1 JuneReports reaching us from Bakool Region, southwestern Somalia say Ethiopian troops have forced local residents in Ceel Barde town to vacate the residential areas. Eyewitness told the press that hundreds of Ethiopian soldiers with armoured vehicles gave orders to the local residents to leave their homes within hours.A local elder identified as Ali Hasan said the motive behind this for
 ceful displacement by Ethiopian troops remains unclear. He said Ethiopian troops pressured locals to vacate their homes which they had been living for decades. Source say the Ethiopian troops had established military bases in the neighbourhoods within the town.The move comes at a time when Somali government forces backed by Ethiopian troops recaptured the town from Al-Shabab. Al-Shabab fighters recently ambushed Ethiopia troops inside Ceel Barder town, although the casualty figure remains unclear.(Description of Source: Gaalkacyo Radio Gaalkacyo in Somali )Dutch Court Authorizes Extradition of Somali Terror Suspect to USEUP20100601024004 Rotterdam NRC Handelsblad Online in Dutch 31 May 10(ANP report: "Netherlands Authorized To Extradite Terrorism Suspect")Rotterdam, 31 May -- On Monday (31 May) afternoon, the court of Rotterdam authorized the Netherlands to extradite Somali terrorism suspect Mahamud S.O. (44 years old) to the United States.  In November 2009, the Somali was 
 arrested in a refugee center in Dronten.According to the Americans, S.O. belongs to the Somali Al-Shabab terror group.  They suspect him of conspiracy with the purpose of killing, kidnapping, or mutilating people.  He has also provided essentia l aid to terrorists both in the United States and in Somalia, according to the Americans.In the opinion of the court, the US authorities provided "sufficient guarantees" that O. will not receive the death penalty and that there are therefore no reasons to refuse the extradition.AppealO.'s lawyer Bart Stapert said in a reaction that his client will lodge an appeal against this verdict before the Supreme Court.  After the ruling of the Supreme Court, it will be up to the justice minister to reach a new decision authorizing the extradition or not.  So for the time being, O. will not yet be handed over to the Americans.The lawyer disagrees with the court's verdict.  He argues that US counterterrorism legislation is more stringent than Dut
 ch legislation.Stapert also fears for O.'s life if he is extradited to the United States.  "He will not need to fear for his life in the United States, but he risks being expelled to Somalia after serving his sentence in the United States.  And in Somalia his life may indeed be in danger."(Description of Source: Rotterdam NRC Handelsblad Online in Dutch -- Website of prestigious left-of-center newspaper; URL:http://www.nrc.nl/ http://www.nrc.nl )Somalia: House Finance Committee Accuses New Speaker of Embezzling Public MoneyAFP20100601301001 Gobolada.com in Somali 31 May 10The Somali parliament finance committee has leveled various accusations against Sharif Hasan Shaykh Adan, the new speaker of parliament.Speaking to the media, parliament finance committee deputy chairman Muhammad Ali Wosh accused Sharif Hasan Shaykh Adan of embezzling public funds when he was finance minister, before he was picked as speaker. He said such an individual who committed a crime against the nati
 on should not have been elected to the highest position of power in a parliament. "We do not know where to file a complaint against Sharif Hasan Shaykh Adan, who stands accused of embezzling public funds. He bribed his way to the parliament speaker's position," the deputy chairman of the parliament finance committee said.On another note, Muhammad Ali Wosh accused some ministers of pouring large sums of money into last Friday's parliament leadership election in which Sharif Hasan Shaykh Adan emerged the winner. The statement of (parliament finance committee) came as lawmakers elected Sharif Hasan Shaykh Adan parliament speaker after they allegedly received large sums of money from him.(Description of Source: Gobolada.com in Somali -- Canadian based news-orieted independent website; URL:http://www.gobolada.com/ http://www.gobolada.com )Somalia: Seizure of Private Vehicles by Ethiopian Troops Causes TensionAFP20100601527004 Boosaaso Radio Horseed in Somali 1130 GMT 30 May 10Ten
 sion is high in Buuhoodle, the administrative capital of Eyn in Puntland, following the arrival of Ethiopian troops after which they took away transport vehicles belonging to local business people.  Credible sources from the area confirmed to us that there are fears of fighting in the area.  The source further told us that the Ethiopian troops went away with 17 vehicles.(Begin unidentified resident recording) Yes, the tension was high but the situation is under control now.  The Ethiopian Government and Puntland authorities discussed the latest development and agreed not to allow a repeat of the incident.  The incident was unexpected.  It is true they went away with the vehicles.  They later called us and confirmed to us that they got orders from above.  People were terrified initially but the two sides later talked and the tension was diffused (end recording).The transport vehicles were seen heading to the Ethiopian border.  Their motive remains unclear.  Recent fighting be
 tween Ethiopian troops and Buuhoodle residents led to heavy casualties, including several deaths and injuries.(Description of Source: Boosaaso Radio Horseed in Somali - independent)Somali Sufi sect sets up authority for southern regionAFP20100601950024 Mogadishu Radio Voice of Mudug in Somali 1230 GMT 31 May 10The moderate Islamic group Ahlu Sunnah wal Jama'a today formed an Islamic administration for Middle Shabeelle Region, southern Somalia, following consultations with elders, intellectuals and politicians from the region.The spokesman of Ahlu Sunnah wal Jama'a, Shaykh Abdullahi Abdirahman abu Yusuf, held a press conference in Mogadishu to announce the new regional authority.Shaykh Dahir Adow was appointed as the governor of the region. An army commander and several district commissioners were also appointed.Ahlu Sunnah wal Jama'a had signed a power-sharing deal with the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia and is trying to occupy areas controlled by rival Islamists
  groups Al-Shabab and Hisb al-Islam.(Description of Source: Mogadishu Radio Voice of Mudug in Somali )Somalia's Shabeelle Radio moves HQ out of rebel-held area - websiteAFP20100601950052 Mogadishu OSC Translation on Sub-Saharan Africa in Somali 0900 GMT 01 Jun 10Text of report in English by Somali website Mareeg.com on 1 JuneMogadishu: Shabeelle Radio, also known as Shabeelle Media Network, has been moved from its headquarters in Bakaro market in Mogadishu, sources said on Tuesday.Shabeelle Media Network, which broadcasts its news and programmes through FM radio and television in the capital, Mogadishu, has been operating in Bakaro market for the last eight years.Sources say the management of radio decided to move from its headquarters in Bakaro to a building near Aden Adde international airport in Mogadishu under the control of the Somali government.The equipment of the radio has been moved from Bakaro midnight on Tuesday secretly to avoid harassment from the rebel groups t
 hat control the market.Shabeelle complied (with) orders from the rebel groups about stopping airing music and songs.Other sources say Al Shabab (Islamists) wanted to take over the radio and make an insurgent-run radio, like they did (with) those FM radio stations in Kismayo.Two directors of the radio, Bashir Nur Gedi and Muktar Mohamed Hirabe, were killed in Bakaro by suspected Al Shabab militias. Three reporters of the radio were also killed in 2009.Universal TV avoids reporting in Islamist controlled areas in SomaliaAFP20100601950004 Universal TV in Somali 1700 GMT 31 May 10BBCM has observed that reports from south and central Somalia regions were not featured in Universal TV's 31 May news bulletin on 1700 gmt. This comes a day after armed Islamists groups that control these regions, Al-Shabab and His al-Islam, slammed the UK-based station for showing caricatures of Prophet Muhammad in one of its news bulletins on 29 May. The Islamist groups had said that they were going t
 o cut off all "ties" with the station's correspondents in Somalia until they apologize over the cartoons shown.The station has since officially apologized on its 1700 bulletin on 30 May.On 31 May, one of the Islamist groups Hisb al-Islam ordered Universal TV to shut down its offices in Somalia.(Description of Source: Universal TV in Somali )Pirates held by Spain expected to be returned to SomaliaEUP20100601950040 Madrid El Pais.com in Spanish 01 Jun 10Two Somali pirates captured in the Indian Ocean and transferred to Spain in the wake of the hijacking of a Basque tuna boat and its crew in late 2009 were convinced they would be returned to their country, according to a Madrid daily. It says tapped telephone conversations between the two men - who remain in custody in Spain - and their comrades and relatives in Somalia reveal that they thought that their release would be included in the 2.7m-euro ransom paid to free the fishing boat's 36 crew members. The following is the text
  of the report by the Spanish popular centre-left newspaper El Pais website, on 1 June; subheading as published:Madrid: "Dear father, these men have got a goal"."Yes?"."What they want is for you to release the seamen (from the Alakrana (Spanish tuna boat hijacked off Somalia for 47 days in late 2009)) and for us to stay in prison"."Well, that's not going to be possible"."Don't free them until they take us to Kenya!".The telephone conversation took place on 6 November between Soto del Real prison (Madrid (Province)) and Somalia. The people on the line are Raageggesey Adji Haman - one of the Somalis captured by Spanish servicemen in the Indian Ocean after leaving the hijacked tuna boat - and his father. Raageggesey's calls and those of Cabduwelli Cabdulahi, (alias) Abdu Willy, to their relatives and the alleged pirate chiefs, which were tapped by the police, show to what extent the two men fought for their release to be made part of the 2.7m-euro ransom which served to free th
 e 36 crew members of the boat, 16 of them Spaniards - a possibility that the two men in custody in Spain, awaiting trial at the National High Court and with a recommendation to be handed down a 220-year prison term, considered to be a certainty.The person in charge of conveying that hope was one of the hijackers, who both of them called by the name of Ilyas. The plan, according to the alleged chief of the clan, was for them to be transferred to Kenya and from there to Somalia."God willing, the two of you will return. If you don't come back, their people (the Spaniards) will disappear", Ilyas came to say to Raageggesey. Two days later, in another conversation between the two men, the latter tells his buddy: "I've told them that if they don't take us to Nairobi tomorrow, that's the end of the matter!". Ilyas replies: "Stand firm. We have them by the balls here".In view of his difficulty in communicating with the prison staff, Raageggesey tried to find someone among the pirates
  who spoke English. The goal was for him to speak to Cris, a Cameroonian inmate who, according to prison sources, managed to converse with the Somali and acted as an interpreter. The hijackers used Cris as yet another channel for communicating with the Spanish government and trying to blackmail it with the three Spanish sailors allegedly disembarked from the Alakrana a week before the ending of the hijacking."We want them to let the boys go quickly", the pirate tells him from Somalia."I don't know anything about that. Here they're talking about three hostages", replies Cris."OK, there are three hostages and if they do not free the boys we shall hand them over to the families (of Raageggesey and Abdu Willy, presumably)", adds the pirate.In another of the conversations between Cris and the alleged hijackers, the Cameroonian pleads for the Spanish fishermen and asks for no harm to come to them, while saying that their buddies being held prisoner in Spain are going to be transfe
 rred to Kenya."Why don't you bring our comrades?", asks the pirate."The government of Spain is preparing an agreement to get these two going, perhaps tomorrow", replies Cris."Where are they going to take them?"."When the government says, they will probably put them in Kenya, in a place that you say, agreed? They are very, very well here, so please try to change the conditions of the Spaniards because we have had news here... (El Pais ellipsis)"We're trying, but we're going to kill everyone if we don't meet our two comrades, so tell the Spaniards to be very, very quick".Even Raageggesey took it for granted that his return was a matter of days away - and that is what he sa id in a conversation with Abdu Willy."Friend, I wish us both the best. Tomorrow or the day after they are going to take us to Kenya... (El Pais ellipsis) The Spaniards are locked up on land", says Raageggesey."Great. They can't let those men go. If they let them go, they'll eat us up", replies Willy."They're
  not going to eat us up. They are not going to kill you or slit your throat here. They're just putting you to the test"."I know they're not going to kill me, but it's 20 years in jail"."There's nothing to being in jail, but tomorrow or the day after they'll take us to the airport to go to Somalia, you know".On 17 November, the seamen were released, but Raageggesey and Abdu Willy remain in Soto prison. Against their wishes and contrary to the promises of Ilyas, it appears they will stay there for quite a few years yet.Abdu Willy: "Give the money to my father"It was 16 November, the day before the release of the Alakrana. Raageggesey and Abdu Willy now knew that their chances of returning to Somalia had dwindled. The three Spanish seamen taken ashore by the pirates had been returned to the tuna boat and the ransom, which included 33,000 euros for the families of the two prisoners in Spain, was now settled. However, Ilyas, their man in Somalia, insisted that their return was pa
 rt of the deal. "We're still fighting for them to bring you", he tells Abdu Willy in one of the calls. "In the end, we've signed a document (with the Spaniards) where they say that they're going to give you back in December, which is next month, and they're going to bring you to Somalia". Abdu Willy, who appears resigned to not returning, replies "it will be whatever Allah wishes", adding, "I have no hope of returning, we are already sentenced. You take care".Immediately afterwards, Ilyas asks him to who he wants his part of the ransom delivered. "To my father", replies Willy. "Leave the money with my father and tell him to speak to mum because I can't speak to her. These men don't let me", he says.In another conversation recorded that same day, Ilyas confirms to Raageggesey that they will not hold the seamen hostage any longer even if he and Abdu Willy have not been returned to Somalia. As in the case of Willy, the main concern becomes his part of the ransom, which he also 
 wants handed over to his father. Ilyas also tells him that an Englishman called "Ticeey" has participated in the negotiations over the release. "I met him last night and he promised me that he is going to return you".(Description of Source: Madrid El Pais.com in Spanish -- Website of El Pais, center-left national daily; URL: http//www.elpais.com)Special operations units aboard vessels will help prevent pirate attacks - expertCEP20100601964678 Moscow Interfax in English 1001 GMT 26 May 10Special operations units aboard vessels will help prevent pirate attacks - expertMOSCOW. May 26 (Interfax) - Including special operations units as part of the crews of seagoing freight vessels will help fend off attacks by Somali pirates, former Russian Interior Minister Anatoly Kulikov said."Let's think about the high price that has to be paid to ensure the safe passage of vessels through certain sections of passenger and freight navigation sea routes. It is too costly to keep powerful naval
  forces for these purposes. Maybe, it would be advisable to include special operations units in the crews of such vessels," Kulikov said at an international transport security conference in the State Duma on Wednesday.Kulikov currently chairs the World Anti-Crime and Anti-Terrorism Forum.Sea pirates staged 215 attacks on vessels off the African continent's coast last year, he said.Every fifth attack resulted in the hijacking of a vessel and ransom worth $82 mil lion was paid in exchange for the release of the crews, he added.Although the UN Security Council has been studying this problem for over a year and a half, very modest progress has been made, including an agreement on armed forces patrol and a decision to prolong the arms embargo in Somalia, Kulikov said."The embargo has been in force since 1992, but sea pirates are well armed and have relatively advanced weapons," he said.Pirate attacks are now happening in a larger area, targeting larger high-speed vessels, he said
 .Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: CrimeDissentDomestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalLeaderPeacekeeping,SOCIAL ISSUES,LEGAL,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,GOVERNMENT,REGULATIONIP
City: 
Geographic Code: ETH,FRA,DEU,NLD,SOM,USA
Geographic Name: Ethiopia,France,Germany,Netherlands,Somalia,United States,Africa,Europe,Americas,East Africa,South Europe,North Europe,North Americas,SPAIN,CENTRAL EUROPE,IBERIA,ETHIOPIA,SOMALIA,AMERICAS,USA,AFRICA,EUROPE,FRANCE,MEDITERRANEAN,EAST AFRICA,NORTH AMERICA,KENYA,SOUTHERN EUROPE,GERMANY,ARAB STATES,WESTERN EUROPE,NETHERLANDSIP
Region: Africa,Europe,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T20:12:12Z --------------------
Title: The following lists selected items from the two leading Iraqi Kurdish newspapers, Khabat and Kurdistani Nuwe, on 27 and 28 May. To request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735, or fax (703) 613-5735.
Journal: Iraq -- OSC Summary
Text:
http://www.xebat.net/ http://www.xebat.net)-- Kurdistani Nuwe on 27 May carries a 500-word page 3 feature asking whether the team that is supposed to represent the winning Kurdish lists in the Baghdad negotiations over the next Iraqi Government should be in Baghdad already. Mahmud Uthman, of the Kurdistan Alliance, says that, while the team might be waiting for the announcement of the final election results, it would be better if they showed up at the scene. (Description of source: Al-Sulaymaniyah Kurdistani Nuwe Online in Kurdish - website of Kurdistani Nuwe, daily newspaper published by the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, PUK, URL:http://knwe.org/ http://knwe.org) Kurdistan Region Affairs-- Khabat on 27 May carries a 200-word page 1 report citing the head of the Arbil Security Directorate saying that an investigation has revealed that two journalists, who recently alleged that they had received threatening text messages, sent threatening texts to their own cell phones and lat
 er lodged complaints that they had received threats. The directorate also says that investigations into the murder of journalist Sardasht Uthman are under way.-- Khabat on 27 May carries a 200-word page 1 report saying that Kurdistan Region President Mas'ud Barzani met a German delegation of judges and legal experts, who praised progress in the justice system and legislation in the Kurdistan Region.-- Khabat on 27 May carries a 250-word page 1 statement by the Arbil Security Directorate denying a report in the Al-Sulaymaniyah-based weekly Kurdish newspaper, Awene, which said, citing a "source" in the parliamentary legal committee, that the Arbil police chief and the security chief had told the committee that they are not part of the inquiry probing the murder of Sardasht Uthman and criticized the fact that the inquiry team was not disclosed to the public. The directorate says that the security chief has not met the said committee and has never told any outlets that he is not
  a member of the inquiry. It tells Awene that while the quoted source failed to reveal any name, they should not ask others to reveal the name. It also asks the paper to be accurate and not use too many anonymous sources in a sensitive case like this.-- Khabat carries on 27 May a 300-word report on pages 1 and 13 saying that Mas'ud Barzani met the leader of the Department for External Economy and European Policy at the German Federal Ministry of Economy and Technology, Karl Ernst Brauner, to discuss commercial ties and the opening a German trade representation office in the Kurdistan Region.-- Khabat on 27 May carries a 300-word page 4 report saying that the governor of Arbil met the commander of the US forces in northern Iraq to discuss the security situation in Iraq and the reconstruction effort in the area.--Kurdistani Nuwe on 27 May carries a 500-word page 1 report citing Mala Bakhtiyar, spokesman for the PUK Political Bureau, saying that the bureau held its last meeting
  before the party conference on 1 June. He says the PUK secretary general, Jalal Talabani, consulted the bureau on local affairs and sought their views on his speech that will be delivered at the conference. He says the bureau stressed that the conference should be a means for consolidating the unity of the party.-- Kurdistani Nuwe on 27 May carries a 100-word page 1 report citing The Washington Post saying that US generals disagree over the withdrawal of the US troops from Iraq.-- Kurdistani Nuwe on 28 May carries a 200-word page 1 report citing Mala Bakhtiyar, spokesman for the PUK Political Bureau, saying that the PUK has sent invitations to almost all the social democrat parties in the world to attend the party conference on 1 June.-- Kurdistani Nuwe on 28 May carries a 250-word page 3 report citing the logistics commander of the US forces in Iraq saying that the US logistics support for the Peshmerga forces will continue until the Peshmerga Ministry's needs are met. The
  commander said that during a meeting with the KRG Ministry of Peshmerga. Elsewhere, a delegation of the US forces in Iraq met the Peshmerga officials as well as the head of the Kirkuk Governorate Council, Rizgar Ali, to discuss ways of improving cooperation between the Kurdish forces and the US forces in the Qarahanjir area of the Kirkuk Governorate. Ali says the Peshmerga is an official force in the governorate.-- Kurdistani Nuwe on 28 May carries an 80-word page 1 report saying that the Al-Sulaymaniyah security arrested a terrorist who is affiliated with a terrorist group but is not on the department's wanted list.-- Kurdistani Nuwe on 28 May carries a 200-word report on pages 1 and 3 citing the head of the Al-Sulaymaniyah International Airport, Tahir Abdallah, saying that the closure of Iraqi Airlines will not affect the Kurdistan Region.-- Kurdistani Nuwe on 28 May carries a 400-word page 3 report saying that a conference on building ties between Christians and Muslims 
 was held in the city of Al-Sulaymaniyah. Christians from Al-Sulaymaniyah and Kirkuk as well as Lebanese, Indian, and US expatriates attended the conference.-- Kurdistani Nuwe on 28 May carries a 500-word page 4 report citing the Arabic daily, Al-Hayah, quoting outgoing Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki saying that there is a general agreement on re-electing Talabani for another term and that they consider Talabani their candidate.  The report also cites the Arabic daily, Al-Sharq al-Awsat, quoting Ammar al-Hakim, head of the Iraqi National Alliance List, saying that his list supports Talabani's re-election for another term.-- Khabat on 27 May carries a 700-word page 3 interview with Maghdid Sapan, lecturer in media at the University of Salah-al-Din, to comment on the coverage of the independent press and "lack" of accuracy in their reporting. Sapan says such outlets were popular in 1960s Europe, but they are out of place in this day and age. He says the partisan media do a
  better job in conveying the truth, bringing in more experienced staff to run their media institutions.-- Kurdistani Nuwe on 28 May carries a an 800-word page 4 report citing Kaka-Rash Siddiq, head of the Kirkuk office of the Commission on Implementing  Article 140, saying that the 10,000 Arab settlers are waiting to receive compensation checks as an entitlement under Article 140 to return to their areas of origin. He says there are many chauvinists in the Iraqi Government who oppose the implementation of the article -- which is designed to settle the issue of the disputed areas -- including many in Iraq's decisionmaking circle. Firyad Rawanduzi, of the Kurdistan Alliance, says that the commission itself bears responsibility for failing to implement the article. He says the Kurds constitute a part of the Iraqi Government, but the non-Kurd majority oppose the implementation of the article. He says that working on reintegrating an area like Makhmur in the Kurdistan Region migh
 t be easy, but for the other parts of the disputed areas this could prove more difficult. Ala Talabani, a newly elected Kurdish MP, says the commission was not active and could have done more, such as calling officials to account.-- Khabat on 28 May carries a 300-word page 1 report saying that the secretary of the KDP Political Bureau, Fadil Mirani, met officials of "A Just Russia" in the Russian State Duma to discuss ties.-- Khabat on 28 May carries a 250-word page 4 report saying that Germany opened a trade representation office in Arbil. Commentary-- In a 1,000-word page 2 article in Khabat on 27 May, Muhammad Ahmad says: A large portion of the people of the Kurdistan Region, including intellectuals as well as members of the political parties, always hoped that one day they would be able to express their views freely and without any censorship, with the establishment of independent media. When the Kurdish weekly newspaper, Hawlati, emerged on the scene 10 years ago, it de
 clared itself as an independent and impartial newspaper, something that all of us were waiting for, and, apart from a sceptical few, it made us all happy. To please the sceptics, the paper was cautious not to put out views extremely critical of one side or another or of government officials. It did not take long before the paper began publishing slander and unfounded accusations against their foes. After Hawlati, the newspaper, Awene, and the magazine, Levin, coupled with Radio Nawa and the Kurdistan Post website also appeared on the scene under the guise of impartiality. All of these have one objective, under the name of freedom of expression, and free press, they work on misleading the public and distorting the democratic image of the Kurdistan Region. They criticize the partisan press and call them the slave of the political parties, while they have submitted themselves to a group of a few individuals, who exploit them to fulfil their illegitimate intentions.-- In a 700-w
 ord page 3 article in Khabat on 27 May, Bilind Nawras says, in light of the coverage of the "so-called independent" media of the murder of student and journalist Sardasht Uthman: What came as a surprise is that these newspapers, magazines, radios, and TVs thought that they will remain the only scorer in this game, since they think the situation in Kurdistan is a game. However, the response by the KDP-run media and NGOs as well as public protests in Arbil came as a shock to them, since they thought they could go on demeaning others and levelling accusations as they please. Thus, their campaign began to lose momentum. If the Kurdistan Region's institutions are illegitimate, as they claim, it means that they are illegitimate too, since they were granted a license to operate in the Kurdistan Region by these institutions. However, they continue to disseminate lies despite the message by the Kurdistan Region president calling for restraint and for these campaigns to end. The freed
 oms we enjoy need to be treated with due respect, and in order to avoid a clash a limit needs to be set.-- In a 900-word page 5 article in Khabat on 27 May, Mustafa Ghafur says, in light of the media coverage of the murder of journalist and student Sardasht Uthman: Reading the local newspapers, one will be gripped by fear, fear of a renewed bloody conflict. We should resort to the law instead of allowing our experiment in the Kurdistan Region to be miscarried. The wise policies of the Kurdistan Region president, Mas'ud Barzani, on accepting and tolerating one anther has given rise to this entity, but unfortunately the enemies will not let it alone. While opposition is a noble cause meant to remedy the shortcomings, in our country we need to look into their background, career, and expertise. An opposition group cannot be based on a corrupt foundation and on a temporary state of affairs -- this applies to the opposition group here that claims to fight corruption, yet they are 
 corrupt themselves, they want to fight terrorism, yet their keepers were the pioneers of assassinations. We were all saddened by the murder of Sardasht Uthman and we will all be glad to find the perpetrators of this evil act, but in today's world we cannot apply yesterday's rules, when everyone wanted to settle the disputes on their own. Logos of the newspapers, Hawlati and Awene, and the magazine, Levin, are attached to the article.-- In a 1,300-word page 2 article in Khabat on 28 May, Salah Badr-al-Din says: The Arab media coverage indicates that the rivalry between Nuri Al-Maliki and Iyad Allawi is a reflection of the disputes between the United States and Iran. The question to be asked here is: To what extent do the Iraqi political forces represent the interests of the two countries? The writer goes on, analyzing what the main Iraqi sides stand for. He says the State of Law Coalition, despite a few reservations about laxity regarding the implementation of Article 140, is
  committed to the Iraqi Constitution, the federal system, reconciliation, and national unity. He quotes Al-Maliki in a interview with Al-Hayah, dated 25 May, saying that if he is re-elected prime minister, he will finish off what he started and will protect the democratic and federal system as well as the Iraqi Constitution. As for the Al-Iraqiyah List, he says: Apart from Ba'thists, the list includes many chauvinist, nationalist, and Islamist groups. He quotes Iyad Allawi in an interview with Al-Jazirah saying that he used to be a nationalist but now he believes in the rights of the minorities. The writer says that Allawi did not make any reference to the Iraqi Constitution or the federal system during the interview.-- In a 2,500-word page 3 analysis in Khabat on 28 May, Zanko Muhammad Ahmad says: The dispute between the two Shiite lists over the nomination of a candidate for the next Iraqi prime minister is an indication that even the Shiite forces are not united on strate
 gic matters. It is said that, even if the two agree on a candidate, they would need months to agree on the other key posts in the next Iraqi Government.-- Khabat carries a 2,500-word analysis by Kamal Al-Tawil, taken from the Mawatani website (http://www.mawtani.com/ www.mawtani.com), on a jihadist rebellion against Al-Qa'ida ideology.Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalLeaderTerrorism,LEGAL,GOVERNMENT,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,REGULATIONIP
City: 
Geographic Code: DEU,IRQ,USA
Geographic Name: Germany,Iraq,United States,Europe,Middle East,Americas,North Europe,North Americas,GULF STATES,IRAQ,ARAB STATES,MIDDLE EASTIP
Region: Europe,Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T18:07:58Z --------------------
Title: The following are highlights of news reports on all areas of government and nongovernment Israeli-US cooperation carried by the Israeli media between 1 and 31 May. To request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735, or fax (703) 613-5735.
Journal: Israel -- OSC Summary
Text:
http://www.jpost.co.il/ http://www.jpost.co.il ) Magal Chairman to US To Face Sinking Investors Haaretz.com reports on 3 May: "Jacob Perry was scheduled to leave for the United States yesterday to face the American investors who own most of his company, two years after he was appointed chairman of Magal Security Systems. The visit follows shareholders' repeated requests to see Perry. Since Perry assumed the position as chairman, Magal's share price has fallen by 60%, and is now trading at a $38.5 million market cap. Eytan Livne, who was appointed CEO of the company a few months ago, is to accompany Perry on his US trip, along with Magal's CFO. For Livne, this is his second American foray since taking over a CEO. Perry is thought to be seeking to increase Magal's transparency with shareholders during his visit to the United States. In recent years, the company refrained from issuing quarterly financial reports, sometimes providing information only when it had no choice; even i
 f it had done so, it still would have been suspended from trading. Magal issued a statement that 'in the context of the company's desire to increase its disclosure and transparency, management has organized a trip to the United States.' The company reported a net loss in 2009 of $800,000, compared to a huge loss of $32 million the year before. Losses from continuing operations in 2009 came to $5 million. The only reason for the relatively modest net loss was the rescission of some of the write-offs the company made in 2008 for a corporate acquisition." (Tel Aviv Haaretz.com in English -- Website of English-language version of Ha'aretz, left-of-center, independent daily of record) BIRD Offers Speedy Green Patent Registrations to Israeli Firms Technologies Group Ltdreports on 3 May: "Last December, the US Patent and Trademark Office came out with a trial program to accelerate 'green' patent registration. The announcement is part of the Obama Administration's efforts to generat
 e innovation in green technologies and it is intended to speed up the pace in which green technologies hit the market so as to boost green businesses and jobs. As investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency grow, opportunities for Israeli cleantech companies in the United States have become more attractive than before  The Obama Administration's incentive package, which has set aside more than $60 billion for the energy sector, attracted substantial local and international interest in the US cleantech field, which opens special opportunities to Israeli companies. A noteworthy example is the US-Israeli Energy Cooperation Act, which finances joint US-Israeli projects and is slated for solar and wind energy, biodiesel fuel, advanced technology vehicles, smart network solutions, and other renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies. The Binational America Israel Research and Development Foundation (BIRD, with financial support from the US Department of Energy a
 nd Israel's National Infrastructure Ministry, has funneled some $11.6 in 2009 to finance four joint clean energy projects. Israeli companies looking for new opportunities in cleantech in the United States must also note additional collaborative projects between the two countries, such as the Cleanovation Conference 2010, hosted by the Texas-Israel Chamber of Commerce, the Israeli Government's economic delegation, and the Austin Chamber of Commerce, which was held in February in Austin, Texas; and the Clean Technology Conference and Expo that will be held in Anaheim, California between 21 and 25 June." (Herzliyya Technologies Group Ltd in Hebrew -- Website of magazine on Israeli electronics industry; URL:http://www.technologies.co.il/ www.technologies.co.il ) 26 Israeli Firms Participate in Global Bio Conference in Chicago Israel Export &amp; International Cooperation Institutereports on 6 May: "Twenty-six Israeli companies are participating in this week's global bio conference i
 n Chicago, according to No'a Asher, the commercial attache of the Ministry of Industry, Trade, and Labor in the US Midwest. The conference is a magnet for the bio industry in North America and the world. Taking part in the conference are some of the heads of leading companies in the fields of drugs, medical devices, biotechnological agriculture, investment fund managers, heads of regulatory agencies, heads of state, ministers, and leading scientists." (Tel Aviv Israel Export &amp; International Cooperation Institute, state-sponsored organization to promote international business; URL:http://www.export.gov.il/ www.export.gov.il ) Police Chief, FBI Head Discuss CooperationThe Jerusalem Post Online reports on 7 May: "FBI Director Robert Mueller met with Israel Police Commissioner David Cohen at police headquarters in Jerusalem on Thursday, where the two men discussed cooperation against organized international crime and joint efforts on counter-terrorism. The meeting was also atten
 ded by Commander Yo'av Seglovitch, head of the Investigations and Intelligence Branch and Deputy Commander Ronni Ritman, head of the Intelligence Department. Cohen said during the meeting that the two law enforcement agencies had enjoyed 'fruitful cooperation' in recent years, and briefed Mueller over 'the complexities of missions faced by the Israel Police which are unique to it, counter-terrorism, maintaining public order, and crime fighting.' Mueller described Israel as a 'close ally,' adding that operational cooperation would continue. He said the struggle against organized crime and computer crime was borderless, as was the joint struggle against terrorism." Israeli, US Combat Pilots Hold Joint Drill in Germany Haaretz.comreports on 10 May: "Last week, a crew of Apache pilots from the Israel Air Force (IAF) participated in a joint exercise with US attack helicopters in southern Germany. It was the first time IDF combat troops employed live fire on German soil. Two Apach
 e pilots from the Wasp Squadron at Ramon Air Base participated last week in the first of a series of encounters expected to be held between IAF pilots and pilots of the US Army's 159th Aviation Brigade, who returned several months ago from a period of operational activity in Afghanistan. During the meeting, the pilots shared operational conclusions from the IAF's activity in the Second Lebanon War and in Operation Cast Lead, and the US military's fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. The next meeting will take place this summer at Ramon Air Base, when a US Apache crew arrives in order to fly and to participate in joint workshops with Israeli pilots. In recent years, the IAF has been expanding its cooperation with the air forces of NATO countries, and mainly with the US Air Force. This cooperation is reflected in joint exercises in Europe and North America, as well as in encounters in which operational information is exchanged. This is the first cooperation of this kind with US A
 rmy aviation." Israel Okays Mass Marketing of iPads The Jerusalem Post Onlinereports on 13 May: "After making international headlines last month for being the country that banned iPads, Israel on Wednesday became one of the first countries outside the United States to allow the commercial import of Apple's popular tablet computer. The Communications Ministry approved the unlimited import of iPads after allowing private imports at the end of April. In doing so Israel beat out other countries, which will only begin importing the popular new device later this month. Hayim Zaguri, the owner of the online electronics store IPhone Israel, is one of the first Israelis to get a permit to import the device and said he had already started making sales Wednesday morning. Zaguri will be selling the touch-operated computer both online and by phone, and said he plans to open sales locations in the near future. Zaguri said that all devices sold come with a one-year guarantee and in the fut
 ure will have applications installed enabling a Hebrew keyboard and interface. 'Software issues will be fixed locally and devices that require hardware maintenance or replacement will be sent to the United States for fixing,' said Zaguri." (Jerusalem The Jerusalem Post Online in English -- Website of right-of-center, independent daily; URL:http://www.jpost.co.il/ http://www.jpost.co.il ) Life Science Mission to Israel Promotes Emory University Israel-U.S. Binational Industrial Research and Developmentreports on 14 May: "The American-Israel Chamber of Commerce, SE Region, organized a delegation of life science researchers and entrepreneurs who came to Israel the week of April 11th, 2010.  The delegation was led by Dr. Raymond Schinazi, director of Emory's Center for AIDS Research and co-developer of an AIDS drug that was licensed to Gilead Pharmaceuticals for over $500 million. The purpose of the mission was to promote Emory University -- one of the major medical and life sci
 ence centers in the Southeast US -- exploring the potential for collaboration with Israeli colleagues and companies. The itinerary included visits to noted Israeli universities, medical centers, major companies such as Teva, and meetings with promising start ups." (Tel Aviv Israel-U.S. Binational Industrial Research and Development in English -- Website of binational government foundation coordinating of Israeli-US R&amp;D activities; URL:http://www.birdf.com/ http://www.birdf.com ) Israeli Innovation Weekend Program in Boston Supported by BIRD Israel-U.S. Binational Industrial Research and Development reports on 14 May: "BIRD Foundation supported the 3rd Alan J. Tichnor Memorial Weekend: Israeli Innovation -- 'Healing the World Through Technology.' held April 30th - May 2nd, 2010, at Congregation Mishkan Tefila in Chestnut Hill and The Museum of Science in Boston, MA. This year's weekend program was held in conjunction with the Office of the Consulate General of Israel to New E
 ngland. The weekend included technology exhibits at the Museum of Science featuring Israeli innovations, and presentations on innovation and technology being developed in Israel." BIRD Hosts Breakfast Meeting with Young Jordanian, Israeli Women Entrepreneurs in Chicago Israel-U.S. Binational Industrial Research and Developmentreports on 14 May: "On April 30th, 2010, a special breakfast meeting was conducted in Chicago to welcome a group of 10 young female entrepreneurs from Israel and Jordan, who are developing and launching their business ventures. The entrepreneurs traveled to the United States for a training program that includes workshops, site visits, job shadowing, cultural activities and networking. The program is funded by the U.S. Department of State, the Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs, and sponsored by the University of Wisconsin-Green Bay. The breakfast meeting was a joint effort and was sponsored by the Amman &amp; Petah Tiqva Committees of the Chicago Si
 ster Cities International Program, the Consulate of Jordan, Chicago, Consulate General of Israel to the Midwest, the American Associates, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, the America Israel Chamber of Commerce in Chicago and the BIRD Foundation." US And Israel Will Train Together in Emergency Response Israel Defense Forcesreports on 16 May: "The Israeli National Emergency Authority, the Defense Ministry body responsible for immunizing the population in the event of an emergency, has recently signed an agreement for cooperation with its American counterpart, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Within the framework of this program, representatives of the Israeli National Emergency Authority will participate in simulations which will take place in the United States and which will resemble different disaster scenarios. Similarly, methods of work and confronting emergencies which have been developed in Israel will be presented before the representatives from across
  the ocean." (Tel Aviv Israel Defense Forces in English -- Official website of the IDF Spokesman's Office; URL:http://dover.idf.il/IDF/English http://dover.idf.il/IDF/English ) Uzi Arad Notes Regular 'Unique, Secure' Video Conferencing System on Iran With US Yisra'el Hayomreports on 18 May: "The cooperation between Israel and the United States regarding the sanctions on Iran is very close, and that is no secret. Yesterday, it also became clear just how close. The prime minister's national security adviser, Professor Uzi Arad, said that he and his people have a 'unique, secure and encrypted video conferencing communication system,' through which relations with five of the countries with the decisive influence, both on the future of Iran's nuclear program and on Israel's policy of nuclear ambiguity, 'is maintained on a regular basis.' The most intensive contact is vis-a-vis the United States, with which, over the past week, a 45 to 90 minute video conference was held daily bet
 ween Arad's representatives and their US counterparts. 'The agenda included current problems, dealing with decision-making and very fast dribbling,' Arad explained." (Tel Aviv Yisra'el Hayom in Hebrew -- Second-largest circulation daily distributed free of charge; owned by American businessman Sheldon Adelson, a staunch supporter of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu) Chief of US National Guard Bureau Visits Home Front Exercise Israel Defense Forcesreports on 25 May: "Chief of the United States National Guard Bureau, General Craig McKinley, met with the IDF Chief of the General Staff, Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi, and the GOC of the Home Front Command, Maj. Gen. Ya'ir Golan. General McKinley arrived for this visit to Israel as part of the IDF Home Front Command exercise Turning Point 4. The goal of the visit was to familiarize General McKinley with the Israeli home front emergency services and specifically the IDF Home Front Command. This included observing exercise sites and stud
 ying the lessons learnt by the IDF in general, and the Home Front Command specifically, following the Second Lebanon War and Operation Cast Lead. During the visit, General McKinley visited the Home Front Command Broadcast Studio and Information Center, participated in command-level situation assessments and listened to a special briefing regarding the IDF medical and rescue delegation to Haiti. Throughout the exercise, General McKinley joined Maj. Gen. Ya'ir Golan and visited various exercise sites, Israeli regional councils and field drills involving Home Front Command battalions in northern and southern Israel." (Tel Aviv Israel Defense Forces in English -- Official website of the IDF Spokesman's Office; URL:http://dover.idf.il/IDF/English http://dover.idf.il/IDF/English ) Israeli Firm To Supply Diabetes Diagnostic Kit to CDC Globes Onlinereports on 26 May: "Micromedic Technologies will supply its type 1 diabetes diagnostic kit to a US Center for Disease Control  program. 
 The CDC will use the company's CCL3-AAB kit for its Diabetes Autoantibody Standardization Program. Micromedic will sell kits to DASP participating laboratories. Micromedic said that the dollar amount of the sales will not be substantial. DASP is a project to unify testing and measurement procedures for predicting type 1 diabetes. 48 laboratories from 19 countries, including the US, European countries, and Israel, participate in DASP. Five laboratories in the US, UK, Germany, and Italy will use the CCL3-AAB kit in tests for diabetes. The preliminary results of the program are due to be published at the Immunology of Diabetes convention late this year. Micromedic believes that the order to participate in DASP is evidence of the innovative nature of the CCL3-AAB kit. DASP's realization of the kit's ability to diagnose type 1 diabetes could greatly help acceptance of the marker by the medical, scientific, and business communities. The CCL3-AAB kit has EU CE Mark certification."M
 aterial in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: CrimeInternational EconomicMilitaryInternational PoliticalTELECOM,GOVERNMENTIP
City: 
Geographic Code: DEU,ISR,USA
Geographic Name: Germany,Israel,United States,Europe,Middle East,Americas,North Europe,North Americas,WESTERN ASIA,AMERICAS,USA,EUROPE,TEXAS,ILLINOIS,ISRAEL,MEDITERRANEAN,NORTH AMERICA,ASIA,MIDDLE EASTIP
Region: Europe,Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Sunday August 2, 2009 T02:09:44Z --------------------
Title: Unattributed headline: "Sauerland Trial: Confession Jeopardizes German-Turkish Relations" -- Spiegel Online headline. First paragraph is an introduction.
Journal: Spiegel Online
Text:
One of the defendants in the Sauerland trial, Attila Selek, testified that the detonator for the planned attack had been handed over in Istanbul by a Turkish Islamist named Mevlut K. On two occasions, K. reportedly disappeared for around an hour during a preparatory meeting, and presented what appeared to be insider information on his return.The information to which K. was privy is said to have included the names of several individuals close to Selek and Fritz Gelowicz, leader of the Sauerland group - information included in a secret dossier passed to the Turkish authorities by the Federal Criminal Police Office. Accounting for this, K. allegedly told the flabbergasted Selek that he had "acquaintances" inside the Turkish security apparatus, who were supporting him.According to Selek, K. had also reported that "the CIA was interested in him himself." Meanwhile, the Turkish intelligence service has informally admitted to the German authorities that it did indeed run K. as an in
 former, though had ceased to do so by the time the detonator was procured. Selek claims that Mevlut K. became acquainted with Gelowicz as early as fall 2004. Selek himself allegedly met K. for the first time in Istanbul in March 2005.(Description of Source: Hamburg Spiegel Online in German -- News website funded by the Spiegel group which funds Der Spiegel weekly and the Spiegel television magazine; URL: http://www.spiegel.de)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalTerrorism
City: Hamburg
Geographic Code: DEU,TUR,USA
Geographic Name: Germany,Turkey,United States,Europe,Americas,North Europe,South Europe,North Americas,CENTRAL EUROPE,EUROPE,GERMANY,WESTERN ASIA,TURKEY,WESTERN EUROPE,ASIAIP
Region: Europe,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T11:03:29Z --------------------
Title: Jordan: Writer Ponders Obama's New Mideast Stategy, Possible Effect on Israel
Journal: Al-Dustur
Text:
(Description of Source: Amman Al-Dustur in Arabic -- Major Jordanian daily of wide circulation partially owned by government. Internet version is also available at http://www.addustour.com)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International EconomicInternational PoliticalLeaderTerrorism
City: Amman
Geographic Code: JOR,ISR,USA,GZ,WE,IRN
Geographic Name: Jordan,Israel,United States,Gaza Strip,West Bank,Iran,Middle East,Americas,North Americas,MEDITERRANEAN,ARAB STATES,MIDDLE EAST,NORTH AMERICA,AMERICAS,ISRAEL,JORDAN,USAIP
Region: Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T07:54:38Z --------------------
Title: Editorial: "Blasphemous Caricatures; Until I Am Not Slain Protecting Sanctity of Chief of Medina"
Journal: Nawa-e Waqt
Text:
the appeal of the Tehreek-e-Hurmat-e Rasul (THR) (Movement for Sanctity of the holy Prophet (peace and blessings of God be upon him)), countrywide protests, rallies were held and religious resolutions were passed in the Friday sermons against the blasphemous caricatures on Facebook. Leaders and workers of THR, Tahaffuz-e-Namus-e-Risalat (protecting sanctity of the Prophet) Jamaat-ud Dawa (JuD), Jamiyat-e-Ulema-e Islam (JUI), Jamiyat-e-Ulema-e Pakistan (JUP), Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), Anjuman-e-Fidayan-e-Mustafa (Association of the Loyals of the holy Prophet) (AFM), Minhaj-ul Koran (MK), Ulema Council (Council of the Religious Scholars) (UC), World Pasban-e Khatm-e-Nabuwwat (World Defenders of the Finality of Prophet) (WPKN). Al-Muhammadia Students (AMS), and Majlis-e Harrar (MH) participated in the rally.A grand conference on sanctity of the holy Prophet was held in Islamabad. Addressing the conference and rallies, Professor Hafiz Abdur Rehman Makki, Hafiz Hussein Ahmed, Maulana 
 Amir Hamza, Dr Farid Ahmed Paracha, Allama Abdul Jalil Naqvi, Siddiq-al Faruq, Hafiz Muhammad Masud, Allama Zubair Ahmed Zahir, Maulana Muhammad Shafi Josh, Maulana Muhammad Amjad Khan, Hafiz Saif-ullah Mansur, Syed Nobahar Shah, Allama Ali Ghazanfar Kararvi, Qari Yakub Sheikh, Maulana Saifullah Khalid, Muhammad Javed, and others said that the responsibility of defending the sanctity of the holy Prophet cannot be discharged without getting liberation from the slavery of the United States. During the gathering and protests, a permanent ban was demanded on Facebook and Youtube. The speakers said that the movement of the sanctity of the holy Prophet would be continued in full swing; the US Ambassador should be exiled and Pakistani Ambassador to the United States should be called back.Loving the Prophet more than one's own parents, children, and possessions is part of the faith of a Muslim. A Muslim can tolerate anything. However, defilement of the sanctity of the holy Prophet i
 s intolerable to a Muslim. Laws against defilement of the sanctity of the holy Prophet exist in several Muslim countries, including Pakistan. The non-Muslim world is well aware of the love that Muslims have for their holy Prophet. Despite this, a few individuals have made it a routine to defile the sanctity of the holy Prophet in the name of freedom of speech, every now and then. Such shameful acts of theirs cannot make any difference to the exaltedness of the holy Prophet, neither can the soul of Muhammad depart from the body of Muslims. However, sentiments of the Muslims are certainly hurt and their hearts are torn with grief.When a few magazines in Denmark, Sweden, and Norway published blasphemous caricatures, the entire Muslim world marked complete protest against it. Muslims demanded punitive action against the impudent and a ban on those magazines. However, no one paid heed to it. However, a wretch cartoonist was brought to his ultimate end by one of his fellow country
 man. The other was driven to hell from a fire that erupted in his home. At this time, a feeble voice of Muslim rulers joined the Muslim protest, which the West did not take notice of.If the aforementioned magazines were banned through official protest at government level and those making and publishing the blasphemous caricatures were punished; if a complete boycott was waged against the governments of Norway, Sweden, and Denmark in case of their non-compliance with Muslim demands, and if an overwhelming response was given by the Muslim world at that time, the Facebook administration would never have dared to commit blasphemy in the honor of the holy Prophet today. However, unfortunately, the Muslim rulers, who have assumed power with the blessing of the holy Prophet, assumed silence after issuing a few traditional statements.Molinors, a cursed women citizen of the United States, arranged the competition of blasphemous caricatures on Facebook. Thousands of heartbreaking cari
 catures were released even before the competition actually took place. This cursed woman has issued a statement, reading that she held the competition after approval from the US Administration and that the US Administration had assured her protection. When Lahore High Court imposed a ban on Facebook, the Facebook administration immediately suffered a loss of millions of dollars. Upon this, the US Administration raised hue and cry to uplift the ban and to settle the issue through negotiation.Ban on this devilish site continues in Pakistan even today. However, the ban was lifted from Youtube a few days back. Facebook and Youtube can be used for constructive purposes and benefit should be derived from them. However, those, who have drawn the caricatures and released them on Facebook and Youtube, should be punished.Punishment for these evildoers has been defined by the holy Prophet himself. On the occasion of the conquest of Mecca, the holy Prophet even forgave the murderer of h
 is real uncle, Amir Hamza (may God be pleased with him), and declared the house of his biggest former enemy, Abu Sufyan, as a house of peace. However, he mentioned a few persons with their names, who, even, if found in the cloak of the Ka'ba (holy Mosque in Mecca), should be killed because they were the impudent.Not individual but collective effort is required by every Muslim country for complete elimination of the blasphemy of the holy Prophet. A Muslim organization exists in the form of Organization of the Islamic Countries (OIC). Such issues should be raised from a forum like this. Pakistan is the first Islamic Nuclear Power today. If other Muslim countries declare Pakistan to be the castle of Islam, it is not unjustified. The government of Pakistan should lead the Muslim countries in making OIC vibrant and OIC should raise this serious issue in the United Nations and get defiling the sanctity of the holy Prophet declared as an unforgivable offence. If the impudent are gi
 ven a free hand, then Ghazis (those who return alive after fighting a battle) like Alam-Din Shaheed would continue to be born to bring to ultimate end impudent like Raj Pal.Demands of speakers, who addressed the rallies and gatherings, were absolutely justified that the ban on Facebook and Youtube should continue until culprits are not brought to their ultimate end. If the United States and Europe do not punish the caricature artists, then Muslim countries should part ways with the United Nations, Security Council, and General Assembly. Supply-Line of NATO forces in Afghanistan should be cutoff. Negotiations can be held on Kashmir and Palestine but no compromise can be made on the sanctity of the holy Prophet. The United States and Europe should not widen the gulf between civilizations and religions by providing cover to the impudent. Muslims are well versed in the art of taking lives and offering lives in defense of the sanctity of the holy Prophet.Until I Am Not Slain Prot
 ecting Sanctity of Chief of Medina,God stands witness that my faith remains imperfect. (Urdu Couplet)(Description of Source: Rawalpindi Nawa-e Waqt in Urdu -- Privately owned, widely read, conservative Islamic daily, with circulation around 125,000. Harshly critical of the US and India.)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalMedia,SOCIAL ISSUES,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Rawalpindi
Geographic Code: PAK,USA
Geographic Name: Pakistan,United States,Asia,Americas,South Asia,North Americas,PAKISTAN,NORTHERN EUROPE,NORTH AMERICA,WESTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,EUROPE,SOUTHERN ASIA,INDIAN SUBCONTINENT,DENMARK,SCANDINAVIA,WESTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday August 11, 2009 T11:38:53Z --------------------
Title: CNA: Mofa Thanks International Community For Typhoon Condolences
Journal: Central News Agency
Text:
Taipei, Aug. 11 (CNA) -- The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) thanked the international community Tuesday for its condolences for the stricken families in areas devastated by Typhoon Morakot.MOFA deputy spokesman James Chang said at a regular press briefing that both Japan and the United States have expressed deep condolences for the typhoon victims and their families and offered to help through all kinds of channels.The Taipei-based American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) and the U.S.State Department contacted the foreign ministry and its representative office in Washington, respectively, to express concern over the situation, according to Chang.In addition, the governments of France, Hungary and the Holy See, Taiwan's only diplomatic ally in Europe, and a German parliamentary group friendly to Taiwan also sent their condolences to the victims and their families, he added.El Salvador Ambassador Francisco Ricardo Santana, who is the acting head of the diplomatic corps in Taiwan,
  also sent a letter on behalf of Taiwan's allies to Foreign Minister Francisco H.L. Ou that same day to express condolences for the storm victims, Chang said.The deputy spokesman said the Foreign Ministry appreciated the U.S. and Japan's offers to help but indicated that Taiwan would not request foreign assistance at present because there are sufficient recourses and the disaster relief mechanism is working well.!(sect)The MOFA will serve as a channel between the Central Disaster Emergency Operation Center and the international community to communicate and coordinate information and related relief needs, and will make an immediate request if foreign aid is needed,!!Chang said.Typhoon Morakot hovered over Taiwan Aug. 7-8, lashing parts of the country with massive amounts of rain. It dumped a record 2,500mm of precipitation in Taiwan's southernmost county of Pingtung, causing severe flooding in at least three coastal townships.As of 10: 30 a.m. Tuesday, the flooding there and 
 elsewhere and widespread landslides had left 41 people dead, 35 injured and 60 unaccounted for islandwide.Peter Tsai, secretary-general of the MOFA's Association of East Asian Relations, told the Central News Agency a day earlier that Naohiro Tsutsumi, director-general of the Taipei Office of the Interchange Association -- the de facto Japanese embassy in Taiwan in the absence of diplomatic relations -- called him Aug. 8 on behalf of the Japanese government to express the country's condolences and offered help if necessary.The Foreign Ministry also received a letter from Japan's representative to Taiwan, Masaki Saito, who expressed concerns about the serious flooding in southern part of Taiwan, Tsai said.He added that Tetsuya Hirose, secretary-general of the Japan-based Asia-Pacific Parliamentarians! Union, which opened its 40th annual conferencein Taipei Aug. 11, also expressed his best wishes to storm victims.AIT Press Officer Christopher Kavanagh told CNA Tuesday that the
  U.S. is looking at what kind of assistance it could provide.!(sect)We are concerned about the situation. On behalf of the American people, we would like to convey our deepest sympathy for the victims and their families. The U.S. is ready to provide assistance, !! Kavanagh said.Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalDomestic PoliticalDomestic EconomicMediaInternational Economic,INTERNATIONAL ISSUES,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Taipei
Geographic Code: SLV,FRA,HUN,JPN,TWN,USA
Geographic Name: El Salvador,France,Hungary,Japan,Taiwan,United States,Americas,Europe,Asia,Central Americas,North Americas,South Europe,Central Europe,East Asia,TAIWAN,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USA,JAPANIP
Region: Americas,Europe,Asia






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T13:22:28Z --------------------
Title: Indian Commentary: US Buying Trouble by Perpetuating Colonization by Israel
Journal: Daily News and Analysis Online
Text:
(Description of Source: Mumbai Daily News and Analysis (DNA) Online in English -- India's first "all-color page" English-language daily, owned by the Diligent Media Corporation, a joint venture between industry majors -- the Dainik Bhaskar (India's number one Hindi daily) Group and Zee Group. Launched on 30 July 2005, DNA has a net paid circulation of 300,000. Edited by Gautaum Adhikari, the daily targets a young readership; URL: http://www.dnaindia.com)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Human RightsInternational Political,JOINT VENTURES,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,MANAGEMENT PROCEDURESIP
City: Mumbai
Geographic Code: GZ,ISR,USA
Geographic Name: Gaza Strip,Israel,United States,Middle East,Americas,North Americas,MEDITERRANEAN,NORTH AMERICA,WESTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,MIDDLE EAST,ARAB STATES,SOUTHERN ASIA,INDIAN SUBCONTINENT,INDIA,ISRAEL,PALESTINE,ARAB LEAGUEIP
Region: Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T10:58:55Z --------------------
Title: The following is a roundup of excerpts on Pakistan-Iran Gas Pipeline Agreement from five editorials, published in 30 May editions of five Urdu dailies.
Journal: Pakistan -- OSC Summary
Text:
Commenting on the Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline agreement, the Jinnah writes in its editorial: "Considering the energy crisis Pakistan is facing, this project has been unnecessarily delayed. If this project had been initiated timely, Pakistan could have easily met its energy needs. When we analyze the causes of this delay, it becomes obvious that both India and Pakistan were under the US pressure with regard to this agreement. India accepted the US pressure and withdrew from the gas pipeline agreement with Iran in spite of the fact that the agreement was in Indian interest."The editorial further writes: "The positive aspect of this agreement is that, rejecting the US pressure, the government gave precedence to the wider national interest, which will help Pakistan overcome the energy crisis in the days to come...Amid the ongoing energy crisis, Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline project is a manifestation of a better vision of the government. It will help overcome power and gas crisis in 
 the coming days."The editorial concludes: "The need of the hour is that work on this project should be initiated on emergency basis. Efforts should be made to accomplish this project before the scheduled time, as it has already been delayed." Ausaf Says Pakistan-Iran Deal Symbol of Release From US PressureCommenting on the agreement, the Ausaf writes in its editorial: "By signing this project in spite of opposition of the United States, the Pakistani Government has proved that it is sincere to the national interest and it does not even care about US pressure on some important national issues."The editorial further writes: "This one incident has given birth to several beautiful hopes. The very idea that we will be able to shake off US pressure and will be able to take our decisions ourselves is very pleasant. Release from US pressure is dream of every Pakistani. It is only because of this pressure that no government has been able to deliver to the people."The editorial conclu
 des: "In the light of this incident, we appeal to the ruling institutions to cooperate with each other and foil US designs with the power of unity; otherwise, the United States will strike at all the institutions one after the other. If the president, the prime minister, the Army chief, and the chief justice can free the nation from the United States, it will be a great good to the future generations." Islam Says Pakistan-Iran Agreement Great BoonCommenting on the project, the Islam says in its editorial: "Pakistan is currently faced with a worst crisis. How serious this crisis is can be imagined by considering the fact that there are reports that in the cities of Punjab, which is the largest Pakistani province, there is power cut for as many as 18 to 20 hours, while in rural areas it is 22 hours a day."The editorial further writes: "In this situation, it is imperative that we made efforts to obtain more and more energy sources. The patience of the nation is at breaking poin
 t. In this situation, the said report (about Pakistan-Iran agreement) is nothing less than a great boon." Ummat Says Pakistan-Iran Deal To Rid Country of Power ShortageEditorial Ummat comments in its editorial: "If this project is accomplished and corruption did not come in the way, Pakistan will get rid of the power shortage by the next year. It is to be remembered that India was also a party to the Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline agreement initially. However, because of the US pressure and after getting civil nuclear energy, it had dissociated from the agreement. The United States had pressured Pakistan, also, for a long time trying to prevent it from important gas from Iran. However, the former did not make any offer to Pakistan, as it had to India."The editorial further writes: "By dissuading Pakistan and Iran from signing this agreement, the United States had wanted to economically harm both the countries. However, thanks God, the government did not accept the US pressure in
  this issue and has tried to perform an important national duty." Express Says Pakistan-Iran Agreement Positive DevelopmentThe Express opines in its editorial: "The Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline project is a good development with regard to meeting the energy needs of Pakistan...Earlier, India was also a party to this agreement. However, Pakistan and Iran resolved to accomplish this projects on their own, after India used delaying tactics."The editorial further writes: "It is usually believed that India is hesitant to join in this agreement because of the US pressure. However, considering the energy needs of the country, Pakistan did not accept this pressure. It is quite possible that India has not participated in this deal because of the civil nuclear energy agreement with the United States, which can help India meet its energy needs to a great extent. Anyhow, it is a positive development and it will have very good impact on our economy."The editorial concludes: "It is said tha
 t the imported gas will be provided to the power sector, which will surely increase the power generation. Thus, this pipeline will help in improving the national economy. It is imperative that the Pakistan-Iran gas project should be accomplished within the scheduled time, so that we could benefit from its positive results as soon as possible."Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalEnergyInternational Political
City: 
Geographic Code: IND,IRN,PAK,USA
Geographic Name: India,Iran,Pakistan,United States,Asia,Middle East,Americas,South Asia,North Americas,PAKISTAN,NORTH AMERICA,WESTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,MIDDLE EAST,SOUTHERN ASIA,INDIAN SUBCONTINENT,GULF STATES,IRAN,INDIAIP
Region: Asia,Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T11:21:23Z --------------------
Title: Article Hopes Pakistan Will not Compromise Viability of its Nuclear Deterrent
Journal: The Nation Online
Text:
Exactly 12 years ago, May 28 was pronounced as "Pakistan's finest hour" by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif when Pakistan detonated five nuclear devices in the Ras-Koh mountain range in Chaghai, in response to the Indian nuclear tests of May 11 and 13, 1998. This was, however, not the first time that India crossed the nuclear threshold. Earlier on May 18, 1974, India used illegally diverted plutonium from the 'peaceful' CIRUS reactor to conduct Pokhran-I nuclear weapon test.Soon after the Indian nuclear tests in May 1998, many in Indian political leadership carried doubts about Pakistan's nuclear capability. Home Minister L.K. Advani and many other BJP leaders started hurling threats, reminding Pakistan to conform to the new strategic realities in the region. Pakistan, however, did not panic into a reflex action and waited for international community's response to the Indian nuclear tests.As witnessed in 1974, international community's reaction to the 1998 Indian nuclear tests was
  equally ambivalent. While the US slapped mandatory sanctions against India, EU, France and Russia refused to follow suit. In the absence of achieving security assurances from the US, Pakistan conducted the last nuclear test on May 30, 1998 and thus, restored the disturbing strategic balance of power in the region. Since then and despite many crises, nuclear deterrence has effectively prevailed in the region.Above notwithstanding, this May 28, 2010 brought together a unique coincidence. At one side the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference was being concluded where the world powers were struggling to defend this discriminatory instrument of global non-proliferation regime. And on the other side was Pakistan standing tall, consolidating itself as a responsible and an established nuclear power.Two recent events symbolises Pakistan's this nuclear self-belief in the milieu of so-called 'emerging nuclear order'. Firstly, it is Pakistan's resolute and principled
  stance on the issue of Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT).The proposed FMCT aims to ban the future production of fissile material for nuclear weapons. Pakistan with a modest level of fissile stocks considers that such a ban would put it in a position of strategic disadvantage vis-a-vis India, and thus, undermine the credibility of its nuclear deterrent. Pakistan, therefore, propagates an FMT (minus the cut-off) that besides banning the future production, must also take into account the pre-existing fissile stocks.Pakistan's resolve was manifest in January 13 National Command Authority (NCA) statement that noted: "Pakistan's position (on FMCT) will be determined by its national security interests and the objectives of the strategic stability in South Asia, and that Pakistan will not support any approach or measure that is prejudicial to its legitimate security concerns."The NCA further noted (the destabilising effects of Indo-US nuclear deal and): "The India-specific exe
 mption made by the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and subsequent nuclear fuel supply agreements with several countries, would enable India to produce substantial quantities of fissile material for nuclear weapons by freeing up its domestic resources." It is estimated that these nuclear deals would enhance India's nuclear weapons production capability from seven to 40-50 nuclear weapons per year.Second is Pakistan's rightful recognition at the Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) hosted by the US from April 12 to 13, 2010, at Washington DC. Through its proactive involvement in the negotiating process of the Joint Communique and the Work Plan, issued at the culmination of the NSS, Pakistan ensured that its interests were safeguarded and it did not undertake any commitment which was not consistent with its international obligations or national laws.Pakistan silenced all such evil voices that created a specific linkage between Pakistan's nuclear weapons and their falling into the hands 
 of terrorists. Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, who was one of the lead speakers at the Summit, underscored that the nuclear terrorism was a global concern and all states must be in a state of constant preparedness for effective and timely response to the threat. He also said that Pakistan has put in place a multi-pronged robust nuclear security regime to ensure that its nuclear assets remain secure from insider as well as outsider threats. Complementing his views, President Barack Obama expressed confidence in Pakistan's security around its nuclear weapons and admitted that no nation, including the US, was exempt from taking better steps to ensure security of its nuclear weapons.Pakistan also amply utilised the event to put forward its legitimate energy needs for power generation. In a national statement, issued at the Nuclear Security Summit, it was contested that with more than 35 years of experience in operating nuclear power plants, Pakistan fully qualified for partic
 ipation in civil nuclear cooperation at the international level.As a country with advance fuel cycle capability and strong nuclear safety and security culture, Pakistan also offered its nuclear fuel cycle services under IAEA safeguards and showed its readiness to share competence in the areas of nuclear security, particularly prevention, detection and response to illicit trafficking.Pakistan's nuclear self-belief should be comforting and assuring to the nation that Pakistan would earn its rightful place in this era of nuclear renaissance and it will not submit to international pressures, what so ever, to compromise the viability of its nuclear deterrent.The writer is a freelance columnist.(Description of Source: Islamabad The Nation Online in English -- Website of a conservative daily, part of the Nawa-i-Waqt publishing group. Circulation around 20,000; URL: http://www.nation.com.pk)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permissio
 n for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalLeaderProliferationTerrorism,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Islamabad
Geographic Code: IND,PAK,USA
Geographic Name: India,Pakistan,United States,Asia,Americas,South Asia,North Americas,PAKISTAN,INDIAN SUBCONTINENT,SOUTHERN ASIA,WESTERN ASIA,INDIA,ASIAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Wednesday June 10, 2009 T09:17:21Z --------------------
Title: AFP: US Envoy William Burns 'Paving Way' for Likely Hillary Cinton Trip to India
Journal: AFP
Text:
(Description of Source: Hong Kong AFP in English -- Hong Kong service of the independent French press agency Agence France-Presse)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalLeader,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Hong Kong
Geographic Code: IND,PAK,USA
Geographic Name: India,Pakistan,United States,Asia,Americas,South Asia,North Americas,PAKISTAN,INDIAN SUBCONTINENT,SOUTHERN ASIA,WESTERN ASIA,INDIA,ASIAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Wednesday June 2, 2010 T01:46:03Z --------------------
Title: US Aircraft Carrier To Arrive in Yellow Sea off ROK for Military Exercises
Journal: Dong-A Ilbo Online
Text:
A diplomatic source in Seoul said Tuesday, "The USS George Washington of the U.S. Navy`s 7th Fleet will depart from its base in the Japanese port of Yokosuka around Saturday," adding, "Since it takes about two days to reach the Yellow Sea from there, the carrier will arrive in the Yellow Sea early next week for a large-scale anti-submarine drill jointly with the South Korean Navy."Washington decided to deploy combat troops from the 7th Fleet to stage a military protest in response to North Korea's sinking of the South Korean naval boat Ch'o'nan (Cheonan) March 26.The source said, "After agonizing over which unit of the 7th Fleet to mobilize, the Pentagon decided to dispatch the aircraft carrier, the core force of the fleet's combat capability, given that the operation is intended to protest the North Korean attack.""The George Washington will form a battle fleet of an aircraft carrier to comprise an Aegis cruiser and Aegis destroyer to participate in the drill."Seoul and Wash
 ington had originally planned to conduct their joint drill in late June or early July, but advanced the schedule by about a month. Analysts in and out of the South Korean military say both sides seek to pressure the North at a time when Seoul is close to referring the Ch'o'nan (Cheonan) sinking to the U.N. Security Council and international sanctions on Pyongyang are inevitable.In the exercise, the submarines of the two allies will likely maneuver and conduct a reciprocal search (tracing) operation before the tracked submarine emerge from the water to imply a situation of being attacked and destroyed. The navies of the two nations will also likely hold a drill in which they consider a deserted vessel as an enemy ship and have a submarine fire a torpedo at it.A Seoul military source said the drill will entail a bombing exercise in which a destroyer launches a mine to destroy an enemy submarine underwater.(Description of Source: Seoul Dong-A Ilbo Online in English -- English w
 ebsite carrying English summaries and full translation of vernacular hard copy items of the second-oldest major ROK daily Dong-A Ilbo, which is conservative in editorial orientation -- generally pro-US, anti-North Korea; URL: http://english.donga.com)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International EconomicInternational PoliticalMilitaryUrgent
City: Seoul
Geographic Code: JPN,PRK,KOR,USA
Geographic Name: Japan,North Korea,South Korea,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,SOUTH KOREA,NORTH KOREAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T23:38:21Z --------------------
Title: Corrected version: correcting the source date of the screen shot to "31 May" at the bottom; "Report by Ch'oe Yo'ng-rim, chief secretary of Pyongyang Municipal Party Committee" at Pyongyang mass rally held at Kim Il Sung Square on 30 May to denounce Lee Myung-bak, US over the sinking of Ch'o'nan -- recorded; Pyongyang Korean Central Television [KCTV] via Satellite in Korean also carried the mass rally at 0509 GMT on 30 May as an ad-hoc program. Differences between KCBS and KCTV coverage of Ch'oe Yo'ng-rim's report are noted throughout; The last Pyongyang mass rally was held on 13 February 2010 to implement the joint slogans issued by the Central Committee of the Workers Party of Korea [WPK] and the WPK Central Military Commission on 3 February, as cited in the last referent item; For assistance with multimedia elements, contact the OSC Customer Center at (800) 205-8615 or oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
Journal: Korean Central Broadcasting Station via Satellite
Text:
The Lee Myung-bak (Ri Myo'ng-pak, Yi Myo'ng-pak) gang of traitors (yo'kcho'k p'aedang), which announced so-called investigation results that unreasonably linked the puppet naval ship's sinking incident to us, despite criticisms and protests at home and abroad, has lost good judgment and is running amok foolishly while blabbering about some kind of punishment, retaliation, and sanctions through the international community. The reckless behavior of the puppet gang of traitors is an intolerable provocation and a blatant declaration of war against us and thus constitutes an intentional and planned conspiracy maneuver aimed at triggering a war of northward aggression in collusion with its US and Japanese masters (sangjo'n) and an extra-large smear act (moryakku'k) unprecedented in the history of North-South relations.In connection with the grave incident that has come about, we have solemnly clarified our firm principled stance for the country's national defense and the nation's s
 ecurity through a statement issued by a spokesman for the DPRK National Defense Commission, a press statement (tamhwa) released by a spokesman for the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland, an important notice (chungdae t'onggomun) from the General Staff of the Korean People's Army, and a press statement by a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry. All the officers and men of the people's army and people are wholeheartedly supporting and approving of the just and principled measures we took. (applause)The South Korean puppet clique's (todang) naval ship sinking incident is an anti-national and anti-reunification criminal act that can never be tolerated, as it is a heinous fabricated act (nalchogu'k) and a farce (kwangdagu'k) completely cooked up by the Lee Myung-bak gang of traitors in collusion with the US imperialists.In the name of the entire nation, we strongly denounce the anti-Republic confrontation and smear maneuver of the South Korean puppets, who a
 re heinous war fanatics that have turned their backs on the nation. The fact that the (Pyongyang Korean Central Television (KCTV) via satellite in Korean reads: "traitorous") Lee Myung-bak gang of traitors linked the puppet naval ship's sinking incident to us is a smear conspiracy maneuver intended to avoid a serious crisis caused by the total failure of its domestic and foreign policies, smoothly hold the elections to local self-governing bodies, maintain its fascist rule, and drive North-South relations to catastrophe, and it is thus nothing more than a frantic last-ditch effort of those facing ruin.It is a hackneyed trick employed by the puppet gang of traitors to deceive public opinions and find a way to live by cooking up a shocking north wind (pukp'ung) incident whenever it finds itself in a crisis. The game of fabricating the puppet naval ship's sinking incident this time once again clearly shows the hideous true colors of the puppet gang of traitors, which is running
  amok frenziedly in the smear and conspiracy maneuver against our Republic while unhesitatingly using the tragic incident of North-South confrontation for the criminal purpose of realizing its ambition for power.The puppet gang of traitors is now attempting to escape crisis by cooking up a dirty, wicked plot related to the naval ship's sinking incident, but this is a foolish rash act.This incident fabricated by the puppet gang of traitors is a vicious anti-Republic isolating and crushing maneuver cooked up and perpetrated under the protection and encouragement of its US and Japanese masters (KCTV reads: "US imperialists") from the start and constitutes a grave challenge to our dignity and sovereignty.The puppet gang of traitors, which drew strength from the fact that the United States branded us as the suspect, saying that the ship Ch'o'nan's sinking is most likely caused by North Korea's torpedo attack, has run amok frenziedly to tighten an international cordon sanitaire ag
 ainst us, while playing a smear game of investigations, cobbling pieces toget her in line with it.From the moment the so-called investigation results were announced, anti-Republic hostile forces, including the US and Japanese reactionaries, have been kicking up a racket of sanctions and pressure, picking a quarrel with us while blabbering about a so-called act of attack and challenge to peace and stability. This clearly proves that the recent puppet naval ship's sinking incident is a smear act of the gang of traitors intended to realize its ambition to isolate and crush our Republic under the protection and encouragement of the US and Japanese reactionaries.At present, our army and people are unable to contain their surging fury and hostility toward the Lee Myung-bak gang of traitors for fabricating the puppet naval ship's sinking incident, rupturing North-South relations in league with its US and Japanese masters, and running about wildly in the maneuver for provoking a new
  war.Should the puppet gang show even trivial moves toward punishment and retaliation in cooperation with the outside forces, while saying this and that about a so-called confrontation, we will immediately respond with a retaliatory strike that has no limits, and a powerful physical strike that knows no mercy.At present, people from all walks of life in South Korea and the international community do not recognize the investigation results of the Lee Myung-bak gang of traitors, which is full of contradictions and suspicions due to fabrications that are as absurd and preposterous as can be, including the so-called gunpowder ingredients and pieces of alloy, the writing style of No 1 (1 po'n), and the C-shaped route.Our army and people are full of a burning resolve to smash the despicable nation-selling traitorous gang with a single stroke by vigorously launching into a decisive showdown to firmly punish the gang of traitors, which fabricated the smear incident of the naval ship
 's sinking and is running about wildly in the anti-Republic confrontation maneuver.The South Korean puppet gang of traitors should clearly understand the enemy-annihilating spirit and indomitable will of our army, which has been strongly prepared as invincible powerful revolutionary armed forces under the guidance of the great military-first brilliant commander, and our people who are single-heartedly united around the nerve center of the revolution, and refrain from running amok recklessly.Should the South Korean puppet clique persist in lighting the fire of war despite our repeated warning, we will by all means resolutely wipe out the Lee Myung-bak gang of traitors, the nation's extraordinary traitor and nation-seller, and build in this land a great reunified nation where the entire country is powerful and flourishes. (applause)We will not, in the slightest, ever tolerate the US and Japanese aggressors and their servile followers, who dare defile our supreme dignity and ar
 e trying to provoke us, and we will deal a merciless and resolute punishment to the heinous war fanatics, who are challenging mankind's justice and truth.The anti-national crime of the Lee Myung-bak gang, which trampled on the nation's desire for reunification and persisted in driving North-South relations to total collapse, will be subject to the curse and denunciation of history and the nation, and the puppets will pay a heavy price without fail for the rash acts of cooking up a clumsy smear act in collusion with the outside forces and kicking up a vicious anti-Republic confrontation racket.All the party members, functionaries, and workers should more vigorously rise up in the struggle to safeguard the fatherland and build a powerful state with a death-defying resolve and the fighting spirit of annihilating the enemy in order to mercilessly squash with a retaliatory sacred war of justice, the US imperialists' and the Lee Myung-bak gang of traitors' vicious challenges and w
 ar provocation maneuvers.The great leader (ryo'ngdoja) Comrade Kim Jong Il (Kim Cho'ng-il) has pointed out tha t as the i mperialist reactionaries' isolating and crushing maneuvers grow more vicious, all the functionaries, party members, soldiers, and workers should meet them head-on to resolutely smash them with faith in certain victory and guts, and firmly protect the sovereignty of the country and nation and socialism. The nerve center of the revolution is the destiny of the fatherland and nation and serves as a banner of all victories. (applause)All the party members, functionaries, and workers should firmly safeguard and protect the nerve center of the revolution headed by the great Comrade Kim Jong Il politically, ideologically, and with their lives based on a thorough faith of death-defyingly defending the leader (suryo'ng) and loyally uphold our party's military-first revolutionary leadership.With the strong guts that we will always emerge victorious, even if tens of
  millions of great enemies were to pounce upon us and regardless of what storms may come our way, as we uphold the great military-first brilliant commander, we should unite single-heartedly like steel around the respected and beloved general and smash to pieces the reckless challenges and war maneuvers of the US imperialists and the puppet gang of traitors.All the party members and workers should strongly arm themselves with our party's chuch'e idea and military-first idea and thoroughly implement the party's military-first revolutionary line, thereby reinforcing the might of the people's army in every way and more firmly consolidating the whole country into an impregnable fortress.In response to the South Korean puppet gang of traitors and the US and Japanese aggressors' frantic maneuvers, we should sharply keep an eye on the enemies' maneuvers with high revolutionary vigilance and, if the enemies dare come flying at us, we should be in a fully prepared combat mobilization 
 posture (mandanu'i cho'nt'udongwo'nt'aese) to wage instantaneous and merciless annihilation operations (so'mmyo'lcho'n).The road of independence and the road of socialism, on which our party, army, and people are advancing, is a sacred road for the wealth, power, and prosperity of the country and nation and for the bright future of mankind, and no threat of war, sanction, and pressure of any kind from the enemies can ever stop our advance running like a gust of wind toward a chuch'e-based powerful state.Grasping a gun in one hand and a sickle and hammer in the other, we should rise up like mountains and more vigorously accelerate the struggle to fling open the gate to a powerful state, while fiercely raising a hot wind of the great revolutionary upswing with the indomitable spiritual strength (KCTV reads: "spirit") of the Kim Il Sung (Kim Il-so'ng) nation.All sectors, units, and outposts should uphold this year's joint editorial, the joint slogans of the Party Central Commit
 tee and the Party Central Military Commission issued on the occasion of the party's 65th founding anniversary, and the idea and spirit of the letter from the Kimch'o'l (Kim Ch'aek Iron and Steel Complex) working class and achieve great innovations and great leaps in production and construction, thereby achieving a decisive turnabout in the construction of an economically powerful state and in the improvement of the people's living standards.We will win victory without fail in the showdown with the US and Japanese aggressors and the (KCTV reads: "traitorous") Lee Myung-bak gang of traitors, thanks to the distinguished leadership of the nerve center of the revolution, the single-hearted unity of millions of soldiers and people, and the tremendous might of self-defensive national defense capabilities reinforced a hundred- and a thousand-fold. (applause)Let us all unite firmly around the great leader (ryo'ngdoja) Comrade Kim Jong Il and fight resolutely to achieve ultimate victo
 ry in the confrontation against the United States and puppets and realize the fatherland's reunification and the cause of building a powerful state ahead of schedule. (applause)(slogans chanted)Let us defend with our lives the nerve center of the revolution headed by the great Comrade Kim Jong Il!Let us resolutely deter and ruin the US imperialists and the South Korean belligerent elements' maneuvers to provoke a new war!Let us thoroughly implement the great leader (suryo'ng) Comrade Kim Il Sung's behest on the fatherland's reunification! (Rectangular borders in red added to highlight pages 1 and 3 of theRodong Sinmun 31 May edition. Headlines read, respectively, "Pyongyang Mass Rally Takes Place, Disclosing and Denouncing the US imperialists and the Traitorous Lee Myung-bak Gang's Maneuver of Confrontation and Smear Against the Republic" and "Let Us Resolutely Crush the US Imperialists and the Puppet Traitorous Gang's Reckless Provocation and War Maneuver -- Report by Comra
 de Ch'oe Yo'ng-rim, chief secretary of Pyongyang Municipal Party Committee, at the Mass Rally" (KCTV, 31 May))(Description of Source: Pyongyang Korean Central Broadcasting Station via Satellite in Korean -- Satellite feed of DPRK state-run domestic radio network)Attachments:choeYongrimKCBS30May.pdfMaterial in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalLeaderMilitaryUrgent,GOVERNMENT,REGULATIONIP
City: Pyongyang
Geographic Code: KOR,USA,PRK,JPN
Geographic Name: South Korea,United States,North Korea,Japan,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,SOUTH KOREA,NORTH KOREAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T11:52:14Z --------------------
Title: For a copy of the video, contact GSG_GVP_VideoOps@rccb.osis.gov or the OSC Customer Center at (800) 205-8615. Selected video also available at OpenSource.gov.
Journal: Japan -- OSC Summary
Text:
Click here to view the reports from the OSC video server.The main local news segment of "Haisai News 610" carries as its eleventh story a 1.5-minute report on the Okinawa prefectural assembly's base committee deciding to submit to a plenary session on 16 June a resolution against the US military's use of cluster bombs in training.The twelfth story of the day is a 1.5-minute report on an electric billboard outside of the Okinawa Prefectural Government displaying slogans calling for solution of base issues.The thirteenth story of the day is a 1.5-minute report on a US military serviceman arrested for trespassing in Okinawa city.Naha NHK Television in Japanese is the Naha-based station of Japan's public broadcast network Nippon Hoso Kyokai (NHK). Naha OTV Television in Japanese, "OTV Super News" 0917-0955 GMT (1817-1855 local)Click here to view the reports from the OSC video server.The main local news segment of "OTV Super News" carries as its second story a one-minute report on
  the hit-and-run incident in Yomitan in November last year. An auto accident expert who attended the court session today says that the suspect hit the brake before the impact, suggesting that he was aware someone was there.The sixth story of the day is a one-minute report on four more F22 planes arriving at Kadena Air Base from other bases.The seventh story of the day is a one-minute report on the Okinawa prefectural assembly likely to adopt a resolution against the US military's use of cluster bombs in training in the first day of the June session that will convene on 16 June.Naha OTV Television in Japanese is an affiliate of Fuji Television, part of the Fuji-Sankei group. Naha RBC Television in Japanese, "RBC THE NEWS" 0915-0955 GMT (1815-1855 local)Click here to view the report from the OSC video server.The main local news segment of "RBC THE NEWS" carries as its seventh story a 1.5-minute report on the government for the fist time responding to questions from Guntenkyo, 
 which is made of Okinawa Prefectural Government and 27 base-hosting communities. However the report says that the government offered no clear answers.Naha RBC Television in Japanese is affiliated with TBS Television, which has ties with major daily Mainichi Shimbun. Naha QAB Television in Japanese, "Station Q" 0928-0953 GMT (1828-1853 local)Click here to view the report from the OSC video"Station Q" carries as its second story a one-minute report on the hit-and-run accident in Yomitan in November last year. An auto expert in today's court session says that the suspect hit the brake before the accident.Naha QAB Television in Japanese is an affiliate of TV Asahi, owned by major daily Asahi Shimbun.Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalMilitary
City: 
Geographic Code: JPN,USA
Geographic Name: Japan,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,JAPANIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Monday August 17, 2009 T07:11:57Z --------------------
Title: Highlights: Taiwan Foreign Affairs 14 Aug 09
Journal: Taiwan - OSC Summary
Text:
-- According to this Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) press release dated 14 August, Ron Libby, a coordinator of the Disaster Assistance Support Program under the USAID, arrived in Taiwan on 14 August to survey the damage caused by typhoon Morakot. The press release states that Libby is expected to be in Taiwan for three or four days to access the resources, equipment, and facilities that Taipei would need from foreign countries.http://www.mofa.gov.tw/webapp/content.asp?cuItem=39088&amp;mp=1 http://www.mofa.gov.tw/webapp/content.asp?cuItem=39088&amp;mp=1 "Summary of MOFA's News Conference: Association for East Asian Relations"-- According to this MOFA press release dated 13 August, Peter Tsai (Ts'ai Ming-yao), secretary general of the Association for East Asian Relations, said Japan announced on 11 August to donated 10 million Japanese yen to help with Taiwan's typhoon relief operations. Tsai said the move showed that relations between the two sides were close and friendly. Accordi
 ng to Tsai, the ministry has not received information on whether or not Japan would send a rescue team to Taiwan. Tsai stressed that Taipei would welcome aid from all countries. Asked by a reporter to comment on the US military's offer to help, Chang Chi-p'ing, deputy director of the Department of Information and Cultural Affairs, said the ministry would keep close contact with the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) to work on a list of equipment and materials that Taiwan would need. A reporter asked Chang whether Taipei would ask the World Health Organization (WHO) for help in controlling diseases. Chang said communication between Taipei and the WHO is smooth and the government would contact the organization immediately if the nation needs help in handling disaster relief or disease control.http://www.mofa.gov.tw/webapp/ct.asp?xItem=39061&amp;ctNode=1550&amp;mp=1 http://www.mofa.gov.tw/webapp/ct.asp?xItem=39061&amp;ctNode=1550&amp;mp=1 "Summary of MOFA's News Conference: NGO Affairs Commit
 tee"-- According to this MOFA press release dated 11 August, Chen Po-hsiu, executive secretary of the NGO Affairs Committee, the Association of Pacific Ports (APP) held its 96 th annual meeting in Keelung on 10 August. Chen said this is the first time that the APP held its annual meeting in Taiwan, and attendants would discuss how to improve efficiency and safety of Pacific ports. The press release also states that Rosemary Bryant, chairman of the International Council of Nurses, is to visit Taiwan from 15 to 18 August. According to Chen Po-hsiu, as Taipei has just become an observer of the World Health Assembly, Bryant's visit is significant in the nation's plan to vigorously participate in international medical exchanges and cooperation. According to Chen, the MOFA has sent 10 Taiwan's NGO managers to Portland State University to attend a training course from 8 August to 7 September.http://www.mofa.gov.tw/webapp/ct.asp?xItem=39015&amp;ctNode=1550&amp;mp=1 http://www.mofa.gov.tw/we
 bapp/ct.asp?xItem=39015&amp;ctNode=1550&amp;mp=1 "Group of Mayors From Guatemala Visit Taiwan"-- According to this MOFA press release dated 10 August, Mirza Judith Arreaga Meza, a member of the Guatemalan Congress, and her group of mayors from Huehuetenango province would visit Taiwan from 10 to 14 August at the invitation of the government. The group is expected to meet Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Javier Hou (Hou Ch'ing-shan) and visit the Ministry of Economic Affairs, Government Information Office, Council of Agriculture, and other government departments. According to the MOFA, the purpose of the visit was to learn from the experience of Taiwan's cities and counties in waste management, promoting agricultural products, and helping small and medium enterprises to improve competitiveness.http://www.mofa.gov.tw/webapp/content.asp?cuItem=38974&amp;mp=1 http://www.mofa.gov.tw/webapp/content.asp?cuItem=38974&amp;mp=1Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the sour
 ce cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational Political,LEGAL,INTERNATIONAL ISSUES,GOVERNMENTIP
City: 
Geographic Code: TWN,JPN,GTM,USA
Geographic Name: Taiwan,Japan,Guatemala,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,Central Americas,North Americas,GUATEMALA,TAIWAN,FAR EAST,CENTRAL AMERICA,EASTERN ASIA,AMERICAS,ASIA,LATIN AMERICA,JAPANIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T11:09:06Z --------------------
Title: The following lists selected items from the Greek Press on 30 May; To request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735, or fax (703) 613-5735
Journal: Greece -- OSC Summary
Text:
newspapers on Sunday 30 May. Greek - US Relations--Athens Kiriakatiki Elevtherotipia has a report by Thanasis Tsitsas from Washington that the new US ambassador to be appointed to Athens is low-key and high-powered and that this will benefit bilateral relations. (pages 20-21, 400 words) (Athens Kiriakatiki Elevtherotipia--influential weekly, critical of US policy; favored by dissident groups for claiming responsibility for attacks) (OSC will process this item) Domestic political and Domestic Economic; PASOK--Athens To Vima tis Kiriakis has a report by Ang. Kovaios that at the prime minister's office and among top PASOK officers there is concern over the "incidences of 'inertia' in some ministries," fears that the tight deadlines of the stability pact will not be met; and the overall disdain with which the citizens now view the politicians. The prevailing concern is that all these factors may lead to unexpected developments, particularly if ND and the leftwing split into facti
 ons. (page 28, 500 words) (Athens To Vima tis Kiriakis--independent weekly, critical of New Democracy party)In a commentary on page 4 of Athens I Kathimerini tis Kiriakis Alexis Papakhelas says that the political system built after the restoration of democracy in 1974 has collapsed "dramatically," and that nobody yet is aware how it will end. Papakhelas says that society seems to be split into two: Those who believe that salvation lies in implementing the memorandum with the EU-IMF and those who do not. (500 words)Vasilis Ziras reports that already the "troika" (EU-ECB-IMF) representatives are monitoring the implementation of the bailout memorandum closely and that they will be doing so increasingly. (page 4, 500 words)In a report and commentary on page 6 Konstandinos Zoulas says that the "old PASOK" is at odds with "the new one" over policy, reforms and the austerity measures. Zoulas cites examples. (500 words)On the front page there is a photograph of a listed building wit
 h a view of the Acropolis, one of the most expensive locations for real estate. The newspaper says that this is the house of former defense minister Tsokhatzopoulos. An unattributed report on page 11 expands on the ownership and implies that Tsokhatzopoulos has come by illicit funds to afford such property. (500 words) (Athens I Kathimerini tis Kiriakis--influential independent weekly)Athens Kiriakatiki Elevtherotipia has an interview with Finance Minister Papakonstandinou by Tasos Pappas. Papakonstandinou claims that he is determined to implement the austerity measures and implement the undertakings in the memorandum with the EU-IMF. (page 10, 700 words) (OSC will process this item) ND--Athens I Kathimerini tis Kiriakis carries a report by pollster Yiannis Mavris with the findings of a Public Issue poll, indicating the deep crisis besetting ND. Mavris cites figures and statistics to demonstrate. (page 8, 500 words) (OSC will process this item) Central Intelligence Service (
 EIP)--In a report on page 45 of Athens To Vima tis Kiriakis V.Y. Lambropoulos cites some of the revelations of an internal investigation into the activities of "enterprising" EIP officers, who moonlighted by setting up a private spies' academy, placing of EIP personnel in security firms and using EIP equipment to provide wire-tapping services to the private sector. (600 words) (OSC will process this item) Military-Athens Proto Thema tis Kiriakis has a report by Yeoryios I. Dhimitromanolakis that the Fraud Squad is preparing to audit the military procurements between 199-2007, investigating the decisions not only of the three defense ministers of the period but also of the heads of the procurements sections. The headline reads "we bought useless weapons at highly inflated prices. (page 20, 500 words) (Athens Proto Thema tis Kiriakis--independent weekly, owned by a group of journalists)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permissi
 on for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic EconomicDomestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalLeaderMilitary,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT,MONETARY POLICY,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: 
Geographic Code: GRC,USA
Geographic Name: Greece,United States,Europe,Americas,Balkans,North Americas,GREECE,NORTH AMERICA,USA,AMERICAS,SOUTHERN EUROPE,EUROPE,WESTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Europe,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T11:17:17Z --------------------
Title: Indonesia Tightens Security at Gilimanuk Harbor for US President's Jun Visit
Journal: The Jakarta Post Online
Text:
NEGARA: Security at Gilimanuk ferry harbor linking Bali and Java has been tightened in preparation for possible terrorist attacks and other security treats during the upcoming visit of US President Barack Obama in June.Officers from the police counterterrorism unit Densus 88 have been guarding the harbor since early May.There is speculation that many people were still able to enter Bali without being inspected by police at the entry points.Gilimanuk is a key gateway to the island, and it is believed the perpetrators of the Bali bombings arrived through this port.Bali has four official sea and ferry harbors: Gilimanuk in West Bali linking Bali and Java, Padang Bai in East Bali connecting Bali and Lombok Island, Benoa cargo harbor near Denpasar, and Celukan Bawang Sea harbor in Buleleng, North Bali. - JP(SEATXT)(Description of Source: Jakarta The Jakarta Post Online in English -- Website of a daily newspaper tailored to give an Indonesian perspective on the news to the foreign 
 community. Owned by a consortium of four independent media groups owning major publications, including Suara Karya, Kompas, Sinar Harapan, and Tempo; URL: http://www.thejakartapost.com)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalLeader
City: Jakarta
Geographic Code: IDN,USA
Geographic Name: Indonesia,United States,Asia,Americas,South East Asia,North Americas,SOUTHEAST ASIA,INDONESIA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T11:11:09Z --------------------
Title: AFP: Indonesian Islamists Call for Canceling Obama Visit Over Israel's Ship Raid
Journal: AFP
Text:
(Description of Source: Hong Kong AFP in English -- Hong Kong service of the independent French press agency Agence France-Presse)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalLeaderUrgent
City: Hong Kong
Geographic Code: IDN,ISR,USA
Geographic Name: Indonesia,Israel,United States,Asia,Middle East,Americas,South East Asia,North Americas,MEDITERRANEAN,SOUTHEAST ASIA,MIDDLE EAST,INDONESIA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,PALESTINE,ASIA,AMERICAS,ISRAEL,USAIP
Region: Asia,Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T16:14:04Z --------------------
Title: For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at (800) 205-8615 or OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
Journal: West Bank and Gaza Strip -- OSC Summary
Text:
Throughout the day, Al-Aqsa TV continued to air video clips featuring scenes from the Israeli takeover of the ships, focusing on the injured activists. In addition, the station aired archive footage and statements by Shaykh Ra'id Salah, head of the northern branch of the Islamic Movement in Israel. Much of the station's programming included coverage of the angry international reactions to the incidents.At 0600 GMT, the Al-Aqsa TV carries a one-hour-long live program on "the Freedom Flotilla and Immersing in Sea of Blood" from the Gaza seaport. Announcer Muhammad Hamid conducts several interviews with Palestinian officials which are interspersed with nationalistic songs.He first interviews Dr Abdallah Abu-al-Jarbu, undersecretary of the Awqaf Ministry.At 0625 GMT, the announcer interviews Dr Hani Basus, expert in international law, who says that the Israeli takeover "is a crime that violates international law." He further calls for the immediate establishment of an internation
 al commission of inquiry to investigate the incident.Muhammad Hamid interviewing Ahmad Yusuf on Gaza's beach (Al-Aqsa TV, 1 June)At 0649 GMT, the announcer interviews Ahmad Yusuf, undersecretary of the Interior Ministry in Gaza and head of the governmental committee for breaking the siege. He denounces "the crime that Israel committed with such degree of stupidity." He says that in the wake of this incident, the blockade on Gaza "is about to end soon" and considers the incident "a victory" to HAMAS as the world's sympathy with the Gaza Strip will only increase now in the wake of the incident.As for Turkey's expected response, Yusuf says Turkey possess "political bargain chips" with which it can act against Israel. He expects more demonstrations against Israel in Turkey.At 1028 GMT, the Al-Aqsa TV relays live an emergency session by Palestinian Legislative Council, PLC, in Gaza. Ahmad Bahr, deputy PLC speaker, opens the session by reading out a statement by the PLC Speaker's 
 Office, denouncing the Israeli takeover of the Freedom Flotilla. He praises the foreign sympathizers aboard the vessels as well as Turkey and Shaykh Ra'id Salah. He numerates several measures that should be taken against Israel.Then Khalil Al-Hayyah, head of the PLC Political Committee reads out a report on the Israeli takeover.Other PLC members contribute to the discussion, which ends at 0855 GMT.During its morning talk show at 0700 GMT, the Al-Quds TV hosts Ali Barakah, HAMAS representative in Lebanon, in its Beirut studio. Anchorwoman Asma al-Hajj Ali describes the flotilla events as "the freedom massacre" Barakah notes that the takeover was "premeditated" and that "the Zionist entity... must be punished for this crime." He argues that the US administration shares the responsibility for the incidents due to its position in the UN Security Council, as "he who covers up the crime beocmes an accomplice to the crime." He notes that "this US administration proves day after day
  that it is no different than the Bush administration." Barakah adds that President Obama "is obeying the Zionist terrorism and going back on his positions from when he came into office."For his part, HAMAS spokesman Fawzi Barhum speaks form Gaza seaport and says that the Gaza Strip has become the talk of the day in Europe and the United States. He says that Israel did not expect the international reaction to this "crime."Throughout the day, the station correspondent in Gaza Muhammad Da'udi interviews HAMAS figures, including PLC member Salim Salamah,The station carries a caption noting that "HAMAS set up a mourning tent at Gaza seaport for the martyrs of the Freedom Flotilla who were killed by the occupation."Al-Aqsa TV relaying Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan's speech, live.At 0945 GMT, correspondent Linda Shalash broadcasts live from Ramallah, interviewing people on the street and PLC member Mustafa al-Barghuthi.At 1020, both stations relay live the first 30-minute address
  by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan before Turkish parliament.At 1100 GMT, the station held a telephone interview with Ankara-based Muhammad al-Adil, the head of the Turkish-Arab Organization for Science and Culture, on the implications of Erdogan's address, and Imad Fawzi Shu'aybi, a Damascus-based expert.At 1337 GMT, Al-Aqsa TV dedicates its "With the Event" talk show to the flotilla events, with anchorman Islam Badr interviewing Dr Jasim Zakariya, a Damascus University expert on international law. The program focused on the legal aspects of the Israeli operation.At 1422 GMT, both stations began relaying HAMAS Political Bureau Chief Khalid Mish'al's press conference in Yemen.Further as warranted.Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: TerrorismMediaDomestic PoliticalInternational Political,LEGAL,CORPORATE GROUPS AND OWNERSHIP,MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS,INTERNATIONAL ISSUES,GOVERNMENT,MANAGEMENT PROCEDURESIP
City: 
Geographic Code: GZ,WE,ISR,USA,TUR
Geographic Name: Gaza Strip,West Bank,Israel,United States,Turkey,Middle East,Americas,Europe,North Americas,South Europe,LEBANON,MEDITERRANEAN,TURKEY,WESTERN ASIA,ASIA,EUROPE,MIDDLE EAST,ARAB STATES,ISRAEL,PALESTINEIP
Region: Middle East,Americas,Europe






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T10:03:38Z --------------------
Title: The following lists selected items from the Saudi press on 1 Jun 10. To request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
Journal: Saudi Arabia -- OSC Summary
Text:
1. Gaza Flotilla Attack a.Jedda Arab News (Internet Version - WWW) in English 1 Jun (English language daily; formerly owned by the late Prince Ahmad Bin-Salman, son of Riyadh Governor Prince Salman; URL:http://www.arabnews.com/ http://www.arabnews.com/ ):- an editorial "Terror At Dawn": "Israel has once again shown its true colors to the world with its murderous piracy in international waters. What Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has so rightly called "a massacre" saw the death of at least 10 peace activists on board the lead ship of the six-vessel Freedom Flotilla and the injury of scores others, as heavily armed Israeli commandos seized the convoy and sailed it toward their port of Ashdod." (GMP20100601614002)- a report headlined "Murder on the high seas" by AGENCIES: "Israeli attack on aid flotilla leaves 10 dead; world condemns act of piracy and terrorism; JERUSALEM: Israeli marines stormed aid ships bound for Gaza on Monday and at least 10 rights activists were kille
 d, triggering a diplomatic crisis and an emergency session of the UN Security Council. European nations, as well as the United Nations and Turkey, voiced shock and outrage at the bloody end to the international campaigners' bid to break Israel's blockade of the Gaza Strip." (800 words; no processing planned)- a report headlined "Muslims livid at Israeli bellicosity": "The killing of pro-Palestinian activists by Israeli commandos on a flotilla of ships carrying aid and hundreds of civilians, many of them Turkish, to the Gaza Strip has been described as a very sad day, not only for Turkey, but for the international community by Turkey's ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Ahmet Muhtar Gun." (GMP20100601614003)- a report headlined "Israel boat raid sparks condemnations, protests" by Reuters, AP: "ANKARA, Turkey: Turkey withdrew its ambassador to Israel and called for an emergency session of the UN Security Council as condemnations erupted across Europe and the Arab world Monday over Is
 rael's deadly commando raid on ships taking humanitarian aid to the blockaded Gaza Strip." (850 words; no processing planned; today's papers carry similar agency reports)- a report headlined "Top US official keeps quiet on flotilla raid": "The US Secretary of Homeland Security refused to condemn the violence aboard an aid ship between Israeli soldiers and activists that left at least 10 people dead." (GMP20100601614004)b.Jedda Saudi Gazette (Internet Version - WWW) in English 1 Jun (Daily newspaper; twin sister of Ukaz; largest circulation English daily; URL:http://www.okaz.com.sa/sgazette/ http://www.okaz.com.sa/sgazette/ ) :- an editorial entitled "Israel's aggression": "There is absolutely no justification for what occurred in the waters off Gaza early Monday morning and only one direction in which to point fingers, regardless of Israeli statements charging the organizers of the flotilla headed for blockaded Gaza with "political provocation"." (GMP20100601614005)- a repor
 t by Agencies headlined "World in shock as Israel raids Gaza aid flotilla, kills 9&amp;q uot;: "OCCUPIED JERUSALEM - Israeli navy commandos stormed a Gaza-bound aid flotilla in international waters Monday, killing at least nine pro-Palestinian activists in a pre-dawn raid that sparked global outrage." (510 words; no processing planned)c.Abha Al-Watan (Internet Version-WWW) in Arabic 1 Jun (Daily newspaper known for its exclusive reports and in-depth coverage of local, Arab, and foreign news; strongly critical of Israel; financially supported by Asir Governor Prince Khalid al-Faysal; URL:http://www.alwatan.com.sa/ http://www.alwatan.com.sa/):- editorial entitled "How Will the Arabs Invest the Israeli Crime?" says Israel's actions against the Gaza aid flotilla yesterday can only be described as a "heinous crime and a glaring proof of the barbarism of Netanyahu's Government, who has a long record of war crimes and disregard for the international community." (700 words; processing)d
 . Riyadh Al-Jazirah (Internet Version-WWW) in Arabic 1 Jun (Daily newspaper of wide circulation; strongly critical of US Middle East policy; URL:http://www.al-jazirah.com http://www.al-jazirah.com) :- an editorial entitled "Responding To The Israeli Crime: Ending the Gaza Blockade" describes the raid on the flotilla as "a heinous crime against humanity since the supporters of the Palestinian people besieged in Gaza represent the human conscience that Israel is trying to stifle." It calls for "immediately lifting the blockade imposed on the people of Gaza and allowing the return of movement to international crossings with Gaza." (400 words; no processing planned)- a commentary by Jasir al-Jasir entitled "The Freedom Flotilla: Have The Arabs Taken Action?" says: "Israel committed a heinous crime in the early hours of the day." It adds: "Only the Arabs stayed quiet, with the exception of a demonstration outside the UN building in Beirut, Lebanon, which dispersed once the demons
 trators had cursed and screamed, after which each returned to their homes and hotels." (450 words; no processing planned)- an agency report headlined "Israel Commits An International War Crime Against The Freedom Flotilla." (500 words; no processing planned)e. Jedda Ukaz (Internet Version-WWW) in Arabic 1 Jun (Daily newspaper of wide circulation; known for its exclusive reports and interviews with Saudi officials; often critical of Israel and US Middle East policy; URL:http://www.okaz.com.sa http://www.okaz.com.sa) :- an editorial entitled "The Freedom Flotilla and the Israeli Crime" says: "The killing and wounding of individuals who support justice and equality in the freedom flotilla by the Israeli forces reflects the true face of the mentality that governs the political and military make-up of Israel and the hostile spirit that seeks to destroy everything." (250 words; no processing planned)- a commentary by Khalaf al-Harbi entitled "Wake Up: Peace Time Is Over" says: "Wh
 en will we be convinced that Israel is a terrorist state? Are we waiting for it to resort to nuclear weapons to annihilate the Arab peoples before we are convinced that Israel is a barbaric enemy that knows no mercy?" (500 words; processing)f. Riyadh Al-Riyad (Internet Version-WWW) in Arabic 1 Jun (Daily newspaper of largest circulation; focuses on domestic policies; critical of Israel and US Middle East policy. URL:http://www.alriyadh-np.com http://www.alriyadh-np.com) :- an editorial entitled "Turkey Is Present While the Arabs Are Asleep" calls for "mobilizing the media, the street, and various organizations instead of waiting for a lukewarm protest by a European country that is almost sympathetic with this humanitarian position, Security Council and UN meetings, or others who have fed us illusions and mirage." It adds: "No matter what Israel says, it has lost before the diplomacy of Turkey and the world, which is a good lesson for us should we seize the opportunity to mak
 e our protests reach the ends of the peace-loving world." (650 words; processing)g. Al-Dammam Al-Yawm (Internet Version-WWW) in Arabic 1 Jun (Daily newspaper focusing on Eastern Region news. URL:http://www.alyaum.com/ http://www.alyaum.com/) :- an editorial entitled "A Massacre against The Freedom Flotilla" says: "It is the moment of truth for US President Obama and a test for his ideals and human values." It adds: "We want to hear a real and effective condemnation of the Zionist gang." (500 words; processing)h. Jedda Al-Madinah (Internet Version-WWW) in Arabic 1 Jun (Conservative daily providing coverage of general domestic, regional, international, and religious news -- URL:http://www.almadina.com http://www.almadina.com) :- an editorial entitled "Crime and Punishment" says: "We are before a double crime in which Israel violated international law, UN principles, and various moral and human values in addition to the fact that this aggression denotes a challenge and disregar
 d for the international community." It adds: "Arab countries, the Palestinians in particular, must close ranks and unify their positions to address the international community in a common language using a heard voice through an organized political, diplomatic, and media campaign and effective program that focuses on the terrorist nature of Israel, its hostility, and the need to take firm punitive actions against it to deter it from repeating such terrorist crimes." (450 words; no processing planned)II. Local Issues1. Security and Terrorisma. Saudi Gazette reports "My only son was about to be lured by deviants, reveals Al-Turki": "Major General Mansour Al-Turki, Spokesman of the Ministry of Interior, has revealed that some members of deviant groups had tried to recruit his son, but that his prompt intervention prevented this from happening." (2. Economic and Labor Issuesa. Arab News reports "Desalinated water production begins at Shuqaiq": "A private Saudi utilities company h
 as started producing desalinated water in the southern provinces as part of the Kingdom's drive to meet burgeoning water demands. Shuqaiq Water and Electricity Company commenced operation of its plant on Friday, the company's chairman announced on Monday. Madani A. Alagi added that the plant is currently producing 212,000 cubic meters of desalinated water per day." (480 words; no processing planned)b. Riyadh Al-Iqtisadiyah (Internet Version-WWW) in Arabic 1 Jun (Economic daily providing coverage of business and consumer affairs, especially in Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states -- URL:http://www.aleqtisadiah.com/ http://www.aleqt.com) reports that the Saud stock market has lost 11 percent of its value in the past month according to the monthly report issued by the Saudi financial market corporation. (350 words; no processing planned)3. Crime and Human Rights Issuesa. Al-Watan reports that a judge in Al-Qurayyat has sentenced an Indonesian maid to one year in prison and 25
 0 lashes for witchcraft and the attempted murder of her female employer. (100 words; no processing planned)b. Al-Madinah reports that one person was killed and two wounded in a car chase involving machine guns in Medina yesterday. (800 words; no processing planned) 4. Social and Religious Issuesa. Arab News reports "Suit filed against co-education in primary school": "An Islamic scholar has filed a lawsuit against the Ministry of Education for allowing female teachers in girls schools to teach male pupils in the first, second and third elementary years. Sheikh Youssef Al-Ahmad, a lecturer at Imam Muhammad bin Saud Islamic University, has filed the lawsuit with the Court of Appeals in Riyadh to stop female teachers from teaching boys." (440 words; no processing planned)b. Saudi Gazette reports "National Dialogue to seek openness through cultural identification": "The King Abdul Aziz Center for National Dialogue is hosting over 70 Saudi male and female intellectuals in the Nat
 ional Cultural Dialogue Meeting today and tomorrow June 1 and 2 to discuss "Identity and Globalization in Saudi Cultural Discourse." (870 words; no processing planned)c. Saudi Gazette reports "Women's centers shut over sports activities": "Health Affairs here closed down Sunday three women's natural health treatment centers after inspectors found they were being used as sports clubs. Saeed Al-Ghamdi, spokesman for Madina Health Affairs, said the centers included beauty parlors." (GMP20100601614006)d. Al-Yawm cites Education Ministry spokesman denying that the ministry had planned to merge boys and girls in the first three primary grades in public schools since coeducation was against regulations. (350 words; no processing planned)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic EconomicDomestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalLeader,SOCIAL ISSUES,INTERNATIONAL ISSUES,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENT,LEGALIP
City: 
Geographic Code: SAU,GZ,USA,WE,ISR
Geographic Name: Saudi Arabia,Gaza Strip,United States,West Bank,Israel,Middle East,Americas,North Americas,LEBANON,WESTERN ASIA,EUROPE,GULF STATES,PALESTINE,ISRAEL,MEDITERRANEAN,TURKEY,ASIA,SAUDI ARABIA,ARAB STATES,MIDDLE EASTIP
Region: Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T22:28:55Z --------------------
Title: Highlights: Iranian Military Developments, 15-21 May 2010
Journal: Iran -- OSC Summary
Text:
The following are highlights of Iranian military developments as reported in various Iranian domestic and opposition websites monitored by OSC. Military-Related Activities IRGC Official Announces Formation of Cyber Army - Ebrahim Jabbari, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps' Ali ibn Abi Taleb army in Qom, announced that the IRGC has successfully established the Iranian "cyber army," the Fars News Agency reported on 20 May. Speaking at a meeting of the army's command council in Qom, Jabbari stated: "The Corps has successfully established a cyber army, and, today, the cyber army of the Corps is the second largest cyber army in the world." He explained that the cyber army is one aspect of the many-faceted activities that the IRGC is pursuing with "seriousness and firmness in the spiritual, military, and scientific areas." Jabbari also discussed the ways the IRGC has countered enemy efforts to attack the Islamic republic. He explained: "One of these ways is cybers
 pace activities, and the IRGC cyber army has entered this space with power and is preventing the destruction of the nation's cultural and social system" (Tehran Fars News Agency in Persian - hardline pro-Ahmadinezhad news agency;  headed as of December 2007 by Reza Moqaddamfar, who was formerly an IRGC cultural officer. URL: http://www.farsnews.ir/).Commander Says Basij Should Extend Its Reach Into All Facets of Life- Basij commander Mohammad-Reza Naqdi on 20 May stated that the militia should be prepared to enter all facets of life in Iran, IRNA reported the same day. Speaking at a three-day conference of Basij engineers held in Mashhad, he claimed that backwardness in many areas that now afflict the country is due largely to the absence of the militia in those fields. He also said that, conversely, many of the country's scientific, technological, economic, cultural, and social achievements could be attributed to the Basij. Naqdi (photo below) claimed that, at the end of th
 e Iran-Iraq War of 1980-88, many officials mistakenly believed that the Basij are no longer needed and prevented the militia's growth and the extension of its activities to other areas. He told the more than 300 participants representing Basij engineering groups from around the country that the creation of five research facilities in the fields of agriculture, development planning, energy, industry, and information technology has set the stage for the steady expansion of the militia's activities in recent years. Naqdi also called for the reorganization of the country's economic system to allow the Basij to play a larger role to complement the government and the private sector. Observing that some 52,000 engineers, or 2.7 percent of the country's total number of engineers, are now active members of the Basij, Naqdi said this number can easily reach 60 percent if the proper steps are taken to integrate them into the militia (Tehran Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) in Englis
 h - pro-Ahmadinezhad official news agency, controlled by the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance. URL: www.irna.ir).Basij commander Naqdi said the militia is implementing a program to provide "greater assistance to the government in the country's development," Sepah New s reported on 19 May. He observed that, following an edict by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamene`i that the organization relinquish its military responsibilities to the IRGC, the Basij are now focused on expanding their cultural, sports, artistic, and social activities. Naqdi added that the Basij has introduced a range of programs for its 20 million members and should have a greater presence in religious and educational institutions (Sepah News in Persian - IRGC website created in 2006; provides news and information on Iran's armed, naval, and ground forces as well as on the Basij and security forces. URL: www.sepahnews.ir). Basij Intensifying Activities in Elementary Schools- Mohammad-Saleh Jokar, com
 mander of the Student Basij, announced that the militia has established offices in some 6,000 elementary schools throughout the country to promote its culture among the youth, the Mehr News Agency reported on 19 May. Saying the offices will allow the militia to acquaint young students with the Basij philosophy and prepare them to join the militia in the fourth and fifth grades, he added that 4.6 million students and 320,000 teachers are currently members of the militia and that the new effort will raise that number. Among the militia's many activities for elementary students, Jokar cited the Hejrat summer programs that allow students to participate in work groups to repair and expand schools, thereby teaching them the concepts of hard work, effort, and team work (Tehran Mehr News Agency in Persian and English - conservative news agency; run by the Islamic Propagation Office, which is affiliated with the conservative Qom seminary. URL: www.mehrnews.com). New Office To Promote
  Greater Cooperation Between Universities and Military Industries - Taher Rahimi, deputy director of the Defense Industries Organization, said a liaison office has been established to help promote cooperation between Iranian military agencies and universities, the web site of the public relations department of the Ministry of Defense reported on 15 May. Speaking at a conference on explosives engineering held at Amir Kabir University in Tehran, Rahimi said the office would allow scientists and researchers working in universities to provide ideas and insights for use by the country's military industrial complex. In addition to providing a venue for greater cooperation with universities, the office would help establish a wider range of research projects for university scientists and researchers (web site of public relations department of the Ministry of Defense in Persian. URL: http://www.ro-defa.ir/).IRGC commander Mohammad-Ali Ja`afari said the Student Basij should act as the
  main connection between the military industries and university scientists and researchers, Sepah News reported on 19 May. Speaking at an event recognizing outstanding students, Ja`afari said research studies are vital to the continued advancement of the country and the revolution, and he added that the educational system has not produced enough researchers. Ja`afari also said the Basij program could play an important role in helping direct exceptional students to pursue careers in research and the sciences. Technological Advancements Defense Minister Attends Technology Conference- Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi attended the final session of a conference on information and communication technology on 20 May and emphasized the vital need to protect Iran's weapon systems from electronic and cyber warfare, the web site of the public relations department of the Ministry of Defense reported the same day. Vahidi gave an overview of the development of electronic and informat
 ion warfare and the central role the United States military has played in this respect, and he said that electronic and cyber warfare has largely supplanted physical clashes in modern war. Vahidi also said the Iranian armed forces are making progress in using electronics to create an integrated battle environment and to protect against disruption of its command and control structure during conflicts. Warning of the likely use of electronic and psychological warfare against Iranian forces in any future military conflict, Vahidi said special attention is being paid to prevent such an occurrence, with one effective method being the use of domestic computer software in weapon systems used by the Iranian military. Army To Deploy Updated Tank- Army commander Ahmad-Reza Purdastan stated that a new advanced battle tank will be unveiled by the end of Khordad (22 May-21 June), the Fars News Agency reported on 18 May. Named the Zolfaqar, the tank incorporates a range of upgrades and mo
 re advanced electronic systems, including target acquisition and fire-control programs that greatly improve its capabilities. Purdastan (photo below) said the tank is also equipped with laser-guided missiles. The report noted that the Zolfaqar is an "all-Iranian" tank that was first produced in 1374 (21 March 1995 - 19 March 1996) and has been regularly upgraded and produced in a number of different versions.Defense Industry Meets Communication Needs of Iranian Military- Asghar Kazemi, managing director of the Communications Industries of Iran, said domestic manufacturers have delivered 47,000 communication devices to Iran's armed forces, the Fars News Agency reported on 21 May. Speaking at the information and communication technology conference, Kazemi said his agency's ability to manufacture high-quality communication equipment for use by the armed forces was an example of the capability of the Iranian defense industry to provide the equipment needed by the military. He no
 ted that four versions of communication devices produced by the plant were used in the recent military maneuvers conducted by the IRGC and the Army. Kazemi added that engineers and specialists from the defense industries were present at the war games and evaluated the effectiveness of the equipment. Military Industry Working on More Advanced Communication Devices- Baqeri (first name not provided), deputy of the armed forces command in charge of the information and communication technology department, said Iranian military industries are working on a new generation of wireless communication systems that are impervious to infiltration and electronic warfare, IRNA reported on 19 May. Speaking on the first day of the information and communication technology conference, Baqeri said that information management and dissemination are vital components of modern warfare and that a new department had been created recently to address the need for enhancing the capabilities of the defens
 e industry to adequately meet the requirements of the armed forces in this respect. He said the older PRC77 communication sets have been replaced by the more modern Fateh and Fattah series of communication devices, but he noted that, although Iran's military industry has the capability to meet the current requirements of the armed forces, future wars would require more advanced equipment that are impervious to electronic warfare and disruption. He said his department has begun working on the design and manufacture of a new generation of communication equipment that would meet such future requirements.Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: MilitaryTechnology,SOCIAL ISSUES,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,GOVERNMENT,PRODUCT APPLICATIONS,TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENTIP
City: 
Geographic Code: IRN,USA
Geographic Name: Iran,United States,Middle East,Americas,North Americas,WESTERN ASIA,GULF STATES,IRAN,ASIA,MIDDLE EASTIP
Region: Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T19:01:26Z --------------------
Title: Turkish Foreign Minister Says Ankara Disappointed With US Reaction to Israel
Journal: Anatolia
Text:
(Description of Source: Ankara Anatolia in Turkish -- Semi-official news agency; independent in content)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalLeaderUrgent,INTERNATIONAL ISSUES,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Ankara
Geographic Code: GZ,IRN,ISR,TUR,USA,WE
Geographic Name: Gaza Strip,Iran,Israel,Turkey,United States,West Bank,Middle East,Europe,Americas,South Europe,North Americas,MEDITERRANEAN,TURKEY,NORTH AMERICA,WESTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,EUROPE,MIDDLE EAST,ISRAEL,PALESTINEIP
Region: Middle East,Europe,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T18:08:03Z --------------------
Title: Pan-Arab Editor Argues Flotilla Incident: Extremists' Plot To Derail Peace Talks
Journal: Al-Sharq al-Awsat Online
Text:
(Description of Source: London Al-Sharq al-Awsat Online in English -- Website of influential London-based pan-Arab Saudi daily; editorial line reflects Saudi official stance. URL: http://www.asharq-e.com/ )Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalUrgent
City: London
Geographic Code: ISR,GZ,WE,IRN,USA
Geographic Name: Israel,Gaza Strip,West Bank,Iran,United States,Middle East,Americas,North Americas,MEDITERRANEAN,MIDDLE EAST,PALESTINE,ISRAELIP
Region: Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T16:38:23Z --------------------
Title: Iranian TV Says BBC 'Distorted' Reporting of Gaza Flotilla
Journal: Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1
Text:
world that did not cover this savage measure as its most important piece of news. (Passage omitted: on the general media coverage of Israel's attack on the Gaza-bound aid ships on 31 May)(Reporter) However, the news was covered by the American and British media, especially the British state-run network, the BBC, in a different way. The BBC that we have frequently heard is run by the elements of the vicious sect of Baha'iyat (the Baha'i faith) whose main base is in Tel Aviv, this time too placed a pair of Israeli glasses over the lens of its cameras.(Israel's prime minister with voice over) Our policy is to allow all humanitarian aid enter Gaza; however, we do not allow missiles, rockets and military equipment into the region.(Presenter) The BBC network contacts its correspondents in America and the Zionist regime and it tries to make believe that it is not yet known who the main culprit in this incident was. It tries to make the crime appear distorted.(BBC Persian's correspon
 dent in Washington) We do not yet know what has happened. Israel has to clarify under what conditions the scene of the incident was and what happened. John Kerry, the chairman of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, issued a statement a few minutes ago which has more or less the same theme. He said at this moment we know nothing.(BBC Persian's correspondent in Israel) Many people in Israel are now asking what indeed went wrong.(Description of Source: Tehran Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1 in Persian -- state-run national television, officially controlled by the office of the supreme leader)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: MediaInternational PoliticalUrgent
City: Tehran
Geographic Code: IRN,WE,GZ,ISR,USA
Geographic Name: Iran,West Bank,Gaza Strip,Israel,United States,Middle East,Americas,North Americas,MEDITERRANEAN,WESTERN ASIA,ASIA,MIDDLE EAST,GULF STATES,IRAN,ISRAEL,PALESTINEIP
Region: Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T11:39:47Z --------------------
Title: BBC airing 'propaganda' against Iran nuclear swap - paper
Journal: Jomhuri-ye Eslami Online
Text:
Text of report by hardline Iranian daily Jomhuri-ye Eslami websiteBBC airing "propaganda" against Iran nuclear swap - paperText of report headlined "For Your Information" published by Iranian newspaper Jomhuri-ye Eslami on 27 MayThe US Congress has postponed the approval of the so-called sanction on petrol export to Iran for a month in order to coordinate with the United Nations Security Council's sanction resolution against Iran.According to the BBC, Christopher Dodd, the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee and Howard Berman, the chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs by a joint statement announced: The House of Representatives and the US Senate have prepared some approvals and a joint committee is integrating these approvals in order to prepare a single plan.The British Broadcasting Corporation in its propaganda is trying to present that the Western member-countries of the Security Council has announced that Iran's agreement with Turkey a
 nd Brazil has no value because of the continuation of enriching uranium in this country. They say that even if Iran swaps 1,200 kg of its enriched uranium with the nuclear fuel needed for its Tehran Research Reactor, it still has the essential material to produce an atomic bomb.These countries believe that this risk will remain until Iran sends all its enriched uranium to other countries. David Cameron, the new British Prime Minister, during his speech at the British Parliament on Tuesday said: The time to put pressure on Iran has come and there is not much time left".(Description of Source: Tehran Jomhuri-ye Eslami Online in Persian -- website of conservative daily officially licensed to Supreme Leader Khamene'i, but aligned with Expediency Council Chairman Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani; www.jomhourieslami.com)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use 
 may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalProliferation,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Tehran
Geographic Code: IRN,USA
Geographic Name: Iran,United States,Middle East,Americas,North Americas,UNITED KINGDOM,EUROPE,MIDDLE EAST,GULF STATES,WESTERN ASIA,IRAN,WESTERN EUROPE,ASIAIP
Region: Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T10:35:34Z --------------------
Title: FYI -- Iran: Khamene'i Reacts to Israeli Gaza Convoy Raid, Blames US, UK, France
Journal: Press TV
Text:
news captions, quoting Iran's Supreme Leader Seyyed Ali Khamene'i:"Iran leader: US, UK, France must stand responsible over Israeli raid" "Iran leader: Attack on intl. aid convoy an idiotic act" "Leader: Aid attack brings Zionists closer to end of its existence".OSC LD will file further as available on Khamene'i remarks.(Description of Source: Tehran Press TV in English -- 24-hour English-language news channel of Iranian state-run television, officially controlled by the office of the supreme leader)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalLeaderUrgent
City: Tehran
Geographic Code: IRN,ISR,USA,GBR
Geographic Name: Iran,Israel,United States,United Kingdom,Middle East,Americas,Europe,North Americas,North Europe,FRANCE,UNITED KINGDOM,MEDITERRANEAN,WESTERN ASIA,ASIA,EUROPE,MIDDLE EAST,GULF STATES,IRAN,WESTERN EUROPE,ISRAEL,PALESTINEIP
Region: Middle East,Americas,Europe






-------------------- Wednesday June 2, 2010 T03:54:18Z --------------------
Title: BERNAMA report from the "General" page: "Gaza: Opposition Calls On International Community To Condemn Attack"
Journal: BERNAMA Online
Text:
KUALA LUMPUR, June 1 (Bernama) -- Opposition parties in Malaysia on Tuesday called for a stern action against Israel for the deadly raid on the humanitarian aid flotilla yesterday.PAS president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang said Malaysia should raise the issue at the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) and the United Nations (UN), saying the brutal attack on one of the ships, resulting in deaths and injuries, showed the regime's blatant disregard for humanitarian values."PAS is also calling on United States President Barack Obama to play a role in stopping Israel's atrocities," he said in a statement read by deputy president Nasharudin Mat Isa.PAS also called on the international community to ask the UN to demand Israel to end blockade in the Gaza Strip, to called on world community and OIC to condemn the killing of civilians, to charge Israel for committing crimes against humanity, and to call on Israel's allies to stop giving military aid to the regime.PAS also asked
  all communities to continue assisting the oppressed Palestinians.PAS spiritual leader Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat also called on the people to raise and condemn the attack."Attacking those who want to ease the sufferings of others is the most atrocious act committed by the regime," he told reporters in Kota Baharu.Selangor Menteri Besar Tan Sri Abdul Khalid Ibrahim described the Israeli attack against the Turkish vessel, Mavi Marmara, as a war crime that violates the rights of the volunteers.He said the inhumane and senseless attack could not be tolerated."Israel has once again shown disregard for human life and peaceful initiatives," he said in a statement.-- BERNAMA(Description of Source: Kuala Lumpur BERNAMA Online in English -- Website Malaysia's state-controlled news agency. Known for in-depth coverage of national and international political issues; URL: http://www.bernama.com)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permissi
 on for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalLeader,INTERNATIONAL ISSUESIP
City: Kuala Lumpur
Geographic Code: GZ,ISR,MYS,USA
Geographic Name: Gaza Strip,Israel,Malaysia,United States,Middle East,Asia,Americas,South East Asia,North Americas,MEDITERRANEAN,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,MALAYSIA,SOUTHEAST ASIA,MIDDLE EAST,ISRAEL,PALESTINEIP
Region: Middle East,Asia,Americas






-------------------- Wednesday June 2, 2010 T03:51:16Z --------------------
Title: Turkey: Editorial Calls for 'Singular Focus' on Ending Isolation of Gaza
Journal: Hurriyet Daily News.com
Text:
complicated our region is an understatement. Israel's international isolation over its blockade of Gaza is now all but complete. U.S. efforts to restart peace moves between Israel and Palestine, the so-called "proximity talks" are essentially in tatters. If anyone can figure out the implications for the United Nations Security Council's looming decision on Iran sanctions, with all the parties tiptoeing around a Turco-Brazilian deal to avoid that step, we would certainly like to hear their reasoning.And Turkey's government is pressured on all sides. On the one hand, a calibrated response to Israel, one that does not burn all diplomatic bridges, is being counseled in Ankara. On the other, vast segments of the population are calling for blood. Anyone who is in doubt should scroll through any of the more conservative Islamist websites in Turkey.Against that backdrop, we must offer our support for the tone Tuesday of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's speech and recitation of a
 ctions. Not noted for his deportment in tense situations generally, and noted for his lack of it when the topic is specifically Gaza, the PM did not do a bad job. A recalled ambassador, a set of cancelled military exercises and his top envoy off to New York to seek action by the U.N. Security Council will not mollify many critics. Some of his arguments were weak. For example there is a body of international law that allows the boarding of vessels on the high seas, an issue that is distinct from the opening of machine gun fire once topside.But most of his incendiary rhetoric was justified by the dire circumstances. And his care to differentiate between Israel's government, its citizens and Jews of Turkey or any country was a pre-emptive strike on anti-Semitism that should not go unnoticed.Now comes the test of dispassion. Israel's disproportionate response to any conceivable threat posed by the flotilla has created an atmosphere ripe for the nurturing of extremism and hot hea
 ds of every stripe. Cooler heads must prevail.An act of contrition by Israel that goes beyond the showcasing of allegedly lethal kitchenware aboard the flotilla is urgent. An investigation as demanded by the Security Council is only the first step and it must include international participation.Turkey must be resolute. The heat may well need ratcheting up in the cold war that is now the reality between Turkey and Israel. But it must grow a degree at a time and avoid sabotage of the years of good will, collaboration and exchange between Israel and Turkey.And the American administration of Barack Obama, virtually the only interlocutor that remains with Israel, must free itself of the straitjacket of lobby-based politics and focus singularly on an end to the isolation of Gaza.(Description of Source: Istanbul Hurriyet Daily News.com in English -- Website of Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review, pro-secular daily, with English-language versions from other Dogan Media Group dai
 lies; URL: http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational Political,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Istanbul
Geographic Code: TUR,GZ,ISR,USA,WE
Geographic Name: Turkey,Gaza Strip,Israel,United States,West Bank,Europe,Middle East,Americas,South Europe,North Americas,MEDITERRANEAN,TURKEY,NORTH AMERICA,WESTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,EUROPE,MIDDLE EAST,ISRAEL,PALESTINEIP
Region: Europe,Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T20:18:15Z --------------------
Title: The following lists selected items from the Syrian press on 1 June. To request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
Journal: Syria -- OSC Summary
Text:
http://www.albaath.news.sy/ http://www.albaath.news.sy)In a 365-word editorial in Tishrin entitled "The Other View," Chief Editor Samirah al-Masalimah says that "the West boasts that its satellites can observe the smallest body on the planet, and determine its course, shape, and direction. This West claims also that it has a moral system as valuable as its technological system, and, based on that, they say they want peace in the region." "Where are they now in (fulfilling) these claims," she asks, "if their satellites watched and observed second by second all the details of the Israeli aggression on the Freedom Flotilla; and if their moral values did not move them a bit over those scenes of invading the fleet, and if all their claims on peace, and their work (to achieve it) have been reflected in the form of providing aircraft, ammunition, and naval cruisers to the Israelis with which they committed this criminal aggression?"Al-Masalimah asks also: "From where does the West g
 et its credibility? And from where do the Israelis get the authority to violate the international law day after day?" "It is clear," she says, that "their satellites are cross-eyed, while their system of ethics and values is paralyzed." "What happened yesterday," the writer continues, "was not just a massacre, or just a random killing, but it was in fact a crime against humanity, and a violation of all norms of international law; it was also a message to several countries in the region, to all lovers of freedom, and to all free men in the world; a message that does not accept interpretation, and saying that the Israelis will continue to shed the blood of the free Arabs or non-Arabs, Muslims, Christians, and even Jews, and that the standards of ethics and international law do not mean anything to Israel as long as (the international community) acts as a wall and cover for it, preventing it from being subjected to accountability and litigation, but, more than that, acting as a
 n ancillary element and support." "Will the Arabs understand," she says -- and they are the first to be concerned -- all these clear public messages?" (Description of source: Damascus Tishrin Online in Arabic -- Website of the government-owned newspaper; URL:http://tishreen.info/ http://tishreen.info)In a 335-word editorial in Al-Thawrah entitled, "The siege... (ellipsis as received) the Siege," Chief Editor As'ad Abbud, commenting on the flotilla attack, says that "the world condemns, deplores, denounces, rejects... (ellipsis as received) then what? The world is besieging the crime. The crime should not escape without penalty, and Israel should not escape punishment. It is certainly a challenge for the United Nations, the Human Rights Council, the International Court of Justice, and the International Criminal Court, since they have shown a readiness to be closer to the events of the region, and (even) called on some Arab leaders to surrender themselves."He considers that th
 e world has to do two things now, the first, "to make a concerted effort not to allow Israel to escape punishment," while the second consists of "ending the siege" (of Gaza)." He says that "ending the siege is a prelude to ending occupation... (ellipsis as received) then to peace," adding: "In our opinion, this represents the will of the world." The writer affirms that "this is probably the first time that the world -- the whole world -- really understands Israel, and its behavior, and sees it without a false cover while committing the crime in cold blood." He concludes: "Over the waters of the Mediterranean, a cloud has cleared, so we can read behind it the details of the criminal hands, and (cleared) to illuminate the blood that got mixed with the feelings of the world, the whole world, without discrimination, that was brought together by (the desire to see) the end of the siege." (Description of source: Damascus Al-Thawrah Online in Arabic -- Website of the government-own
 ed newspaper; URL:http://thawra.alwehda.gov.sy/ http://thawra.alwehda.gov.sy)Al-Watan publishes a 280-word interview conducted by Ziyad Haydar, by telephone, with Ershad Hermezli, political adviser to the Turkish president, in which he says that "Turkey will not accept anything short of delivering those responsible for the Israeli act of aggression on the Freedom Flotilla to international justice." The Turkish official adds: "It is clear and certain now that the blockade imposed on the Gaza Strip, and after four years of that, is a criminal blockade, contrary to all human and moral values, and must be stopped in any way," pointing out that "the international community bears full responsibility in this regard."Considering that the flotilla is the "conscience of the world," Hermezli affirms that efforts are being made "to repatriate the Turkish ships and wounded," indicating that "the Turkish Government is in continuous session for this purpose." (Description of source: Damasc
 us Al-Watan Online in Arabic -- Website of the independent daily; URL:http://www.alwatan.sy/ http://www.alwatan.sy)Al-Watan says it has learned that "the Israeli occupation captured the Syrian citizen, Shadha Barakat," and that "she is the only one carrying Syrian nationality among the 700 activists from different nationalities who were on board the vessels of the Freedom Flotilla." In a 405-word report, Rami Mansur quotes Shadha's husband, Ayman Bkayrati, saying by telephone, that the last call he had with his wife, was the day before yesterday, when she was on board the ship, Marmara, that was "subjected to Israeli aggression yesterday morning," pointing out that he saw her on television when the flotilla was on its way to Gaza, and that she was in "good health."He added that he had not heard from her "since her arrest and transfer to the Ashkelon prison after she refused to sign a pledge not to return to Gaza in the future." He told Al-Watan also that his wife always "dre
 amt," since childhood, "of hitting an Israeli." The paper indicates that Shadha, born in 1965, is the mother of three children, is in the teaching profession, and has written many articles and novellas.Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Human RightsInternational Political,SOCIAL ISSUES,LEGAL,MINORITY AND ETHNIC GROUPS,INTERNATIONAL ISSUES,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONSIP
City: 
Geographic Code: GZ,ISR,SYR,TUR,USA,WE
Geographic Name: Gaza Strip,Israel,Syria,Turkey,United States,West Bank,Middle East,Europe,Americas,South Europe,North Americas,SYRIA,MEDITERRANEAN,TURKEY,WESTERN ASIA,ASIA,MIDDLE EAST,ARAB STATES,ISRAEL,PALESTINEIP
Region: Middle East,Europe,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T15:45:39Z --------------------
Title: Pan-Arab Writer Condemns Attack on Flotilla, Asks World To Arrest 'Killer' Israel
Journal: Al-Hayah Online
Text:
(Description of Source: London Al-Hayah Online in English -- Website of influential Saudi-owned London pan-Arab daily. URL: http://www.daralhayat.com)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalUrgent,SOCIAL ISSUESIP
City: London
Geographic Code: ISR,GZ,WE,USA
Geographic Name: Israel,Gaza Strip,West Bank,United States,Middle East,Americas,North Americas,MEDITERRANEAN,MIDDLE EAST,ISRAELIP
Region: Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T16:18:05Z --------------------
Title: "Analysis" by Serkan Demirtas: "Turkey launches long-term diplomatic war against Israel"
Journal: Hurriyet Daily News.com
Text:
(Description of Source: Istanbul Hurriyet Daily News.com in English -- Website of Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review, pro-secular daily, with English-language versions from other Dogan Media Group dailies; URL: http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International Political,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Istanbul
Geographic Code: GZ,ISR,TUR,USA,WE
Geographic Name: Gaza Strip,Israel,Turkey,United States,West Bank,Middle East,Europe,Americas,South Europe,North Americas,MEDITERRANEAN,EUROPE,MIDDLE EAST,WESTERN ASIA,TURKEY,ASIA,ISRAELIP
Region: Middle East,Europe,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T13:35:43Z --------------------
Title: The following lists selected reports carried in Malaysia's Chinese press on 1 Jun. To request additional processing, please contact OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
Journal: Malaysia -- OSC Summary
Text:
2. Unattributed report entitled "Malaysia Strongly Condemns Israeli Army Over Attack on Humanitarian Ship." In a public statement, Foreign Affairs Minister Anifah says that Malaysia will follow the Israel attack incident on humanitarian ship closely, for some journalists are also on board the ship under attack. Malaysia calls for Israel to release the innocent people immediately. (p 10; 400 words)3. Article by Xia Tai Ning entitled "United States Really Changed National Security Strategy." The writer says that the US National Security Strategy Report, recently released by President Obama, is really different from the former Bush administration's "preemptive strike" and unilateralism security strategy. Obama's national strategy now emphasizes on diplomatic contacts, economic policy, and the combined military power. The writer says that Obama's national security strategy suits the appetite of the world community. (p 25; 400 words) Petaling Jaya Nanyang Siang Pau in Chinese -- O
 ne of Malaysia's oldest Chinese dailies. Provides wide coverage of both domestic and international news. As Per the Audit Bureau of Circulations data, the Nanyang Siang Pau has a circulation of 114,049. It was acquired by timber tycoon Tiong Hiew King in 2007. Prior to 2007, it was owned by the ruling coalition component party Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA).4. Unattributed report entitled "Palestinian Envoy to Malaysia Urges International Community To Take Action Against Israel." Palestinian envoy to Malaysia Abdelaziz Aboughosh said that the world community should punish Israel for the attacks on the ships carrying aid meant for Palestinians. He said that Palestine had called upon the Muslim World, OIC, and UN to convene emergency meetings to discuss action taken by the Israeli regime. (p A6; 400 words)5. Unattributed report entitled "Prime Minister Najib: Malaysia To Bring Cruel Attack on Humanitarian Ship by Israeli Army Before UN Security Council." On behalf of the 
 Malaysian Government and the people in Malaysia, prime minister strongly condemned the cruel attack on humanitarian ships in international waters by the Israeli army. He said that Malaysia would bring the case before the UN Security Council. (p A6; 400 words) Kuala Lumpur Oriental Daily News in Chinese -- One of the few remaining Chinese dailies not under control of timber tycoon Tiong Hiew King. Provides independent views on domestic political issues and has emerged as one of the strongest critics of the government. As Per the Audit Bureau of Circulations data, the Oriental Daily News has a circulation of 102,8026. Unattributed report entitled "Pan Malaysian Islamic Party Plans To Stage Protest at US Embassy in Kuala Lumpur over Israel's Attack on Humanitarian Ship Headed for Gaza." The report says while former Prime Minister Mahathir has described Israel as coward for attacking humanitarian ship, in a statement Pan Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) has also strongly condemned 
 the attack on the ships by the Israel army. The PAS plans to stage protest on 4 June in front of the US Embassy in Kuala Lumpur after Friday prayer. (p A4; 300 words) China Press in Chinese -- Carries general domestic and political news. Along with the sister publication Nanyang Siang Pau, it came under timber tycoon Tiong Hiew King's media empire in 2007. As Per the Audit Bureau of Circulations data, the China Press has a circulation of 231,539.As per the Bureau of Circulations data, the Oriental Daily News has a circulation of 102,802.7. Interview with Royal Malaysian Air Force Chief Rodzali by Chew Ren Jit entitled "General Rodzali: Malaysian Air Space Never Got Invaded in Past Five Years." In conjunction with the 52th anniversary of the Royal Malaysian Air Force (RMAF) that falls on 1 June, RMAF Chief General Dato' Sri Rodzali talks about RMAF's joint air force rehearsals with Singapore and other ASEAN countries. He also talks about the present air force assets in this i
 nterview. (p A8; 900 words) Penang Kwong Wah Jit Poh in Chinese -- Oldest Chinese daily in Malaysia. Focuses mainly on news from northern peninsular Malaysia. Along with the Oriental Daily News, it is one of the few Chinese dailies not under timber tycoon Tiong Hiew King's control. As Per the Audit Bureau of Circulations data, the Kwong Wah Jit Poh has a circulation of 71,350.Negative Selection Petaling Jaya Malaysiakini in Chinese -- Chinese-language version of the leading alternative online news portal owned by Mkini Dotcom. Offers independent news and views, focusing mainly on political issues. Often features exclusive interviews with leading opposition and government figures. Exact readership unknown; URL: http://www.malaysiakini.comNegative SelectionMaterial in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalLeaderMilitary,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: 
Geographic Code: ISR,MYS,USA,WE
Geographic Name: Israel,Malaysia,United States,West Bank,Middle East,Asia,Americas,South East Asia,North Americas,MEDITERRANEAN,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,MALAYSIA,SOUTHEAST ASIA,MIDDLE EAST,ISRAEL,PALESTINE,ASEANIP
Region: Middle East,Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T12:57:08Z --------------------
Title: RSA: Sowetan Claims US President 'Treading Lightly' against Israeli 'Aggression'
Journal: Sowetan Online
Text:
(Description of Source: Johannesburg Sowetan Online in English -- Website of pro-worker daily owned by leading media organization Avusa Limited, Sowetan, generally targeting a mainstream black audience. The paper reports on grassroots and working class issues and occasionally carries unique political reports, but leans toward tabloid-style reporting. The paper is one of South Africa's most popular dailies and is widely read in small towns, settlements, and rural areas; URL: http://www.sowetan.co.za)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Human RightsInternational PoliticalLeaderMilitary
City: Johannesburg
Geographic Code: ZAF,GZ,ISR,USA
Geographic Name: South Africa,Gaza Strip,Israel,United States,Africa,Middle East,Americas,Southern Africa,North Americas,MEDITERRANEAN,MIDDLE EAST,NORTH AMERICA,PALESTINE,AMERICAS,ISRAEL,USAIP
Region: Africa,Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T13:14:20Z --------------------
Title: Pan-Arab Writer Argues Attack on Flotilla Aims at Wrecking Peace Chances
Journal: Al-Sharq al-Awsat Online
Text:
(Description of Source: London Al-Sharq al-Awsat Online in English -- Website of influential London-based pan-Arab Saudi daily; editorial line reflects Saudi official stance. URL: http://www.asharq-e.com/ )Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalLeaderUrgent
City: London
Geographic Code: ISR,GZ,USA,WE
Geographic Name: Israel,Gaza Strip,United States,West Bank,Middle East,Americas,North Americas,MEDITERRANEAN,MIDDLE EAST,PALESTINE,ISRAELIP
Region: Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T12:52:33Z --------------------
Title: Article by Jihad al-Khazin from his "Eyes and Ears" Column: "I Condemn Myself Because I am One of Them"
Journal: Al-Hayah Online
Text:
and right. There is no difference between right and left anymore as all of them are extremists. Israel laid itself bare before the world. There is no peace dove between them.I heard the aforementioned remarks from Syrian President Dr Bashar al-Asad at a private meeting on Sunday. About 24 hours later, the Israelis proved right his opinion of them when they committed a horrible crime against advocates of peace in international waters.Israel stripped itself of legitimacy with its own hands. In the first place, it is an illegal settlement that came into existence in the Palestinians' lands after it killed, destroyed, and displaced the people and after it lied to the world for decades using the holocaust as a cover. Its government and army committed against the Palestinians the same crimes that the Nazis committed against the Jews.After decades of lying, the world no longer believes Israel's claims of a besieged state and moral army. It has besieged the Palestinians to a point wh
 ere the Gaza Strip has become a nazi detention camp in open air. Moreover, it threatens neighboring states and peoples and even Iran, which is 1000 miles away. As for its army, it has no ethics at all. It is a neo-nazi gang.There is an international campaign led by human rights organizations, peace groups, and activists from Western, namely US universities and churches to strip Israel of legitimacy. But Israel did what all these groups failed to do on their behalf. Its crime against the flotilla of peace will not go away and disappear like the blood of Palestinian women and children. Rather, we see a European revolt against Israel and its crime, which went beyond the killing and wounding of scores of people to the extermination of a race, because this is what the Israeli soldiers sought to do.After seeing President Al-Asad, I sat with brother Khalid Mish'al, chief of the HAMAS political bureau. We spoke about the impossibility of achieving peace with the state of crime, whic
 h is named Israel. The next day, we heard the news of the crime and followed it on television screens. When I telephoned brother Khalid in the morning, I found that he had not slept. He talked about an Israeli piracy against unarmed people and said that the crime is likely to have serious repercussions, as the Turkish people are steadfast and all nations of Europe attack Israel.After that phone call, I went to see Dr Ramadan Shallah, leader of the Islamic Jihad, on a prior appointment. He too condemned the outrageous crime and said he would have been surprised had Israel acted in a humane way and allowed the ships to proceed to Gaza.Afterward, I followed news of the crime on the Israeli television's Channel 2, which I watched for the first time, while Dr Ramadan translated to us from the Hebrew that he knows well.As for friend Abdallah al-Dardari, Syrian deputy prime minister for economic affairs, he said that he was attending a working meeting, which was dominated by the di
 scussion of the Israeli crime. He said this crime is an evidence of Israeli brutality and stupidity and added that Israel is bound to pay for it.The Israeli crime coincided with my talk in this column about a wicked Likudist campaign against Miss America Rima Faqih, a Muslim of Lebanese origin, and against veiled Muslim student Jumanah al-Bahri. I said that these two girls were the victims of Likudist terrorism and supporters of Israel who defend a neo-nazi state.I also said that the supporters of Israel suffered a nervous breakdown after their lasting moral breakdown over Rima's winning of the beauty crown. I referred to a mean Likudist extremist and to a woman who is meaner than him. I accused both of them of supporting Israeli terrorism, which practices Goebbels' black propaganda.I expressed support for HAMAS and Hizballah against Isr aeli terrorism and said they are national liberation movements facing neo nazis who kill women and children. I concluded by denouncing the 
 "enemies of humanity", and what happened was that the Israelis did in the same morning what confirms my opinion of them.I condemn crime and everyone who is directly or indirectly connected to it. I condemn the supports of Israel who encourage it to be extremist. They have the blood of Palestinians and Israeli in their hands in the absence of a peaceful settlement.I also condemn the US Congress in particular because it supports Israel as it commits crimes one after another. This makes the hands of the Congress too stained with the blood of victims.And before all of the above, I condemn the Arabs and Muslims, that is to say, I condemn myself, because they humiliated themselves and failed to liberate Jerusalem. They wait for young men and women from the advocates of peace to support their causes.Israel has no legitimacy, and everyone who supports it is a war criminal, like its government, army, settlers, and their myths.(Description of Source: London Al-Hayah Online in Arabic -
 - Website of influential Saudi-owned London pan-Arab daily. URL: http://www.daralhayat.com)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalMilitaryTerrorism,SOCIAL ISSUESIP
City: London
Geographic Code: GZ,ISR,SYR,USA,WE
Geographic Name: Gaza Strip,Israel,Syria,United States,West Bank,Middle East,Americas,North Americas,MEDITERRANEAN,MIDDLE EAST,PALESTINE,ISRAELIP
Region: Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T11:40:47Z --------------------
Title: Turkey: Israel Criticized for Turning Relief Flotilla Into 'Concentration Camp'
Journal: Today's Zaman Online
Text:
Israel has turned into an open concentration camp, was hit by Israeli warships before it was able to reach its destination.At the time of writing, 10 people according to the Israeli army, 16 according to Israeli media and 30 people according to Al Jazeera were killed and several dozens wounded. Unfortunately, Israel turned a humanitarian issue into a political matter and then a military matter. This is a very dangerous attitude and can spark a new fire.There are people from all religions and political viewpoints participating in the aid convoy. In addition to Muslims there are Christians and Jews as well. The primary factor that encouraged this attempt was not "political" but rather "humanitarian." But, of course, it has a political dimension as well. Israel rained death on Gaza, which has no other weapons except handmade missiles that have a very restricted effective range and scrap and stove pipes, before the eyes of the world. It killed children at schools, hit UN building
 s, destroyed hospitals and used phosphorus shells, which the world saw on television. Death was falling like rain upon the children, women and elderly people in Gaza. Israeli soldiers personally admitted that they systematically killed innocent civilians. It was such an explicit massacre that some Israelis who wanted to witness the killing of Muslim Palestinians rushed to secure hills to record the historic injustice.About 75 percent of Gaza's infrastructure has been damaged. It does not have clean water or electricity. There is a serious need for medicine and food. People in this open concentration camp are slowly approaching death every day. Gaza lacks the equipment for even the simplest surgeries. It's impossible to continue providing education in schools that cannot be repaired. Children are trying to learn how to read and write in tents riddled with holes under the scorching heat.Gaza is facing a humanitarian tragedy. Israel has been holding all of Gaza under an embargo
  by putting forward outrageous excuses. The conscience of Western governments, the US and, of course, the Obama administration, has been seared. They are not speaking out even though everything is happening before their eyes. According to the British plan, they are trying to make the Palestinians experience death and suffer more to make them accept their current situation.The aid convoy, with the participation of people from close to 50 countries, hoping to deliver much-needed resources to Gazans, will no longer reach them. There will be two options for the Gazans: Either they will risk dying collectively or they will beg and surrender to Israel. Zionist Israeli administrators are OK with both. This is how serious and inhumane the situation is.There were gracious people who participated in the aid convoy from Turkey. The injury of kind and wonderful people will create a very deep wound in people's consciousness that will take years to heal, if at all.Yes, the issue is humani
 tarian. The first people who need to be reached in Gaza are those who are grappling with death. This shameful blockade/embargo needs to be removed. Clearly an important step will be taken to this end if the aid convoy reaches Gaza.When we turn to the political aspect of the issue: Why is Israel resisting a convoy that isn't trying to reach its ports or territorial waters? What's strange is that we know the British, who pioneered the establishment of Israel in the region, extends support to these kinds of aid efforts. The British are virtually putting pressure on Israel, which is its own creation. This is actually an organization that paves the way for the solution envisioned by the British. What's being said is the "ships will reach Gaza through Palestinian waters." What this means is having everyone accept a "two-state solution." In this way, the division of Palestinian territories will be made into a what's done has been done situation, 78 percent of historical Palestine w
 ill be left to Israel and in the solution named the "two-state" Israel will "represent" the state with its military, financial, diplomatic and international force while Palestine will turn into a needy "municipality."But Israeli hawks are against even this approach. They want to take over all of Palestine. But the situation looks different at this time. It has become clear that there isn't a place for these kinds of administrators in the new order that is wanted in the region. The most recent civilian massacre was an indicator of this.(Description of Source: Istanbul Today's Zaman Online in English -- Website of English-language daily published by the Zaman media group, supported by Nurcu Sect leader Fethullah Gulen; URL: http://www.todayszaman.com)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalMilitary
City: Istanbul
Geographic Code: TUR,ISR,GZ,GBR,USA
Geographic Name: Turkey,Israel,Gaza Strip,United Kingdom,United States,Europe,Middle East,Americas,South Europe,North Europe,North Americas,UNITED KINGDOM,MEDITERRANEAN,TURKEY,WESTERN ASIA,ASIA,EUROPE,MIDDLE EAST,WESTERN EUROPE,ISRAEL,PALESTINEIP
Region: Europe,Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T10:46:42Z --------------------
Title: Article by Mustafa Zayn: "'Peace Flotilla's' Massacre" Israel Is Encircling Itself"
Journal: Al-Hayah Online
Text:
It was obvious that the Israeli Government was moving toward escalation after making sure that Washington had given it a free hand in the region following its decision to withdraw from it and leave it to its friends, with Israel at their forefront.  It ascertained this when members of Congress who are more Zionists than Netanyahu himself and some of them more racist than his Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman met Obama before two weeks.  The White House master admitted in front of them that he had hit many mines in the Middle East.  He did not say who planted them.  But all the signs coming from the White House and his backtracking on his pledges to find a peaceful settlement for the conflict in the region within a short period of time, stop the settlement activity (the main obstacle in the path of peace), and start the final solution negotiations, etc, confirm his conviction that Israel planted them and that seeking its warm embrace instead of confronting it was better for h
 im and his party and safer than risking pressuring Netanyahu who proved that his influence in Washington exceeded that of any president.Obama became convinced that his White House predecessors were right in supporting Israel.  He gifted its government additional sum to complete its preparations against hostile missiles.  He is searching for somewhere in the Arab countries to erect a radar that works in conjunction with another radar in the Hebrew State for confronting Iran.The mines in the Middle East made Obama send the key White House officials to Israel.  Others visited the heads of the Jewish community and the rabbis in the United States to assure them that he would not "deviate from the permanent and firm support for the only democracy in the Middle East", particularly as the congressional elections are at the doors and the Republicans are threatening him to be more open toward the Jews.  Obama preferred to shackle himself by his own hands by backtracking on his pledges
 .  He started to get closer to the more extreme leaders, kept silent about the demand of Elie Wiesel, the Jewish activist and Nobel laureate, to take Jerusalem out of the negotiations, and rewarded him for his courage by inviting him to dinner at the White House.It is not possible to believe that Obama took all these steps backward in return for an increase in the Jews' contributions to his party so that it can win the congressional elections.  There is much more than that here.  It concerns the US withdrawal from the Middle East:  A military withdrawal from Iraq and finding a deterrent for Iran so that it does not fill the vacuum.  This can only be done in cooperation with Israel and some of the friends who are ready for this, that is, leave the region to its peoples and help the allies with weapons and diplomacy from afar instead of getting embroiled military in the quagmire.  By relying on the friends who are protecting its interests, Washington approved General David Pet
 raeus's strategy:  Resort to secret intelligence activity and return to the old ways of backing those splitting from their governments politically and militarily if necessary without getting embroiled directly in the conflict.To implement this strategy, allies are needed; foremost of them the sacred ally Israel which is struck b y megalomania, loses its nerves, and goes to extremes in its crimes, among them yesterday's "peace flotilla" massacre, the more its asset in Washington increases.  But it is at the same time encircling itself with enemies.(Description of Source: London Al-Hayah Online in Arabic -- Website of influential Saudi-owned London pan-Arab daily. URL: http://www.daralhayat.com)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalLeaderMilitary,SOCIAL ISSUES,GOVERNMENTIP
City: London
Geographic Code: GZ,ISR,USA,WE
Geographic Name: Gaza Strip,Israel,United States,West Bank,Middle East,Americas,North Americas,MEDITERRANEAN,NORTH AMERICA,USA,AMERICAS,MIDDLE EAST,GULF STATES,ISRAEL,PALESTINEIP
Region: Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T10:52:48Z --------------------
Title: Paper: Netanyahu Must be 'Removed From the Political Scene' for Talks to Resume
Journal: Gulf Times Online
Text:
(Description of Source: Doha Gulf Times Online in English -- Website of independent newspaper with close ties to the ruling family; sister publication of influential daily Al-Rayah; focuses on domestic affairs; URL: http://www.gulf-times.com/)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalLeader,GOVERNMENT,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRSIP
City: Doha
Geographic Code: GZ,ISR,USA,WE
Geographic Name: Gaza Strip,Israel,United States,West Bank,Middle East,Americas,North Americas,MEDITERRANEAN,MIDDLE EAST,NORTH AMERICA,PALESTINE,AMERICAS,ISRAEL,USAIP
Region: Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T08:23:54Z --------------------
Title: Report by Sarah Abdullah from Jedda, with input from Galal Fakkar: "Top US Official Keeps Quiet On Flotilla Raid"
Journal: Arab News Online
Text:
Janet Napolitano said she was not able to fully comment as she had not discussed the situation with US President Barack Obama or State Secretary Hillary Clinton. She had been addressing a press conference at the Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry's Khadija bint Khwalid center."Israel is a strong ally of the US, but at the same time the US strongly supports the peace process and of course, human rights in the region," said Napolitano."The Obama administration has been striving to remove causes of tension that would lead to situations like this in the region."She said that a two-state deal was the ideal solution to the conflict, adding that the Obama administration would strive earnestly to bring conflicting parties to an agreement that would stop further clashes in the region. Napolitano had been addressing university students and Saudi businesswomen at the center.She said her job was not only to protect US security but work in the international domain as well.  "I want t
 o stress that my job is to also protect the US from international entities who would like to use our borders for drug trafficking, terrorism, and other criminal means," she said.Napolitano said she had met with Saudi government officials to discuss counterterrorism and counter-radicalization measures, such as those currently in place in the Kingdom."We have great interest in the program pertaining to what it is, how it works, and the methodology involved," she added.Napolitano said the US was working with Yemen to improve its security, especially after a Nigerian man tried to blow up a transatlantic flight just minutes before it landed in the American city of Detroit."We are not doing anything that isn't in cooperation with the government of Yemen security-wise. We have also talked to Saudi Arabia and discussed the methods used by the Kingdom in securing its border against terrorists from Yemen," she said."I think that there are certainly radicals who have become violent and
  have links to Al-Qaeda who seek to bring down commercial aircraft in the US and around the world."Napolitano is due in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday to hold talks with a number of Gulf Cooperation Council representatives to discuss improving aviation security. Napolitano also spoke about her career and how she had begun her work in the Clinton administration, overcoming the gender inequalities currently experienced by Saudi businesswomen."I began my career as a private commercial lawyer practicing for ten years and then took on other jobs as a public prosecutor practicing criminal law," she said, adding that eventually she was put in charge of 120 prosecutors, dealing with high-profile cases such as the Oklahoma bombing.Napolitano ran for office and became governor of Arizona. Later she become the secretary of Homeland Security after President Barack Obama contacted her.Also present during Napolitano's speech were US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia James B. Smith, US Consul General Marti
 n Quinn and director of the Khadijah bint Khwalid center Basmah Omair.(Description of Source: Jedda Arab News Online in English -- Website of Saudi English-language daily; part of the Saudi Research and Publishing Group which owns Al-Sharq al-Awsat. URL: http://www.arabnews.com)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalLeader,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONSIP
City: Jedda
Geographic Code: SAU,GZ,ISR,WE,USA
Geographic Name: Saudi Arabia,Gaza Strip,Israel,West Bank,United States,Middle East,Americas,North Americas,YEMEN,NORTH AMERICA,USA,AMERICAS,SAUDI ARABIA,MIDDLE EAST,ARAB STATES,GULF STATES,ISRAEL,GULF COOPERATION COUNCILIP
Region: Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T08:00:05Z --------------------
Title: Slovene daily says Israeli attack on convoy 'nothing out of the ordinary'
Journal: STA
Text:
the ordinary"Text of report in English by Slovene news agency STAMaribor, 1 June (STA) - Daily Vecer says on Tuesday that the storming by Israeli forces of a humanitarian ship convoy headed for Gaza was nothing out of the ordinary. Since they got their state in 1948, the Israelis have enjoyed using all unconventional forms of fighting. However, in recent years, even Israel's strongest ally, the US, is baffled.The incident took place only a day before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is to meet US President Barack Obama to smooth out relations between the two countries cooled in March, when Israel announced it would push ahead with the construction of disputed settlements in East Jerusalem during a visit by US Vice President Joe Biden.Israel has been testing the patience of the international community for some time, the daily says, however Monday's incident might have been the final straw, given the strong reaction by global powers.The daily wonders what Israel wanted
  to prove by storming the humanitarian aid convoy. Maybe it wanted to show that it would never approve of Hamas' rule in Gaza. But instead, the incident torpedoed the peace process in the worst possible way. When humanitarian workers die, the tolerance threshold for the attackers sinks rapidly, the paper concludes under "Storming Peace".(Description of Source: Ljubljana STA in English -- national press agency)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International Political
City: Ljubljana
Geographic Code: SVN,ISR,WE,GZ,USA
Geographic Name: Slovenia,Israel,West Bank,Gaza Strip,United States,Europe,Middle East,Americas,Balkans,North Americas,MEDITERRANEAN,EUROPE,MIDDLE EAST,SLOVENIA,ISRAEL,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Europe,Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T06:43:09Z --------------------
Title: Corrected version -- adding topic tag; AFP Report: "Malaysians Protest Israeli Raid on Gaza Flotilla"
Journal: AFP
Text:
(Description of Source: Hong Kong AFP in English -- Hong Kong service of the independent French press agency Agence France-Presse)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalUrgent,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Hong Kong
Geographic Code: GZ,ISR,MYS,USA
Geographic Name: Gaza Strip,Israel,Malaysia,United States,Middle East,Asia,Americas,South East Asia,North Americas,MEDITERRANEAN,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,MALAYSIA,SOUTHEAST ASIA,MIDDLE EAST,ISRAEL,PALESTINEIP
Region: Middle East,Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T06:39:07Z --------------------
Title: AFP: Protest Outside US Embassy in Kuala Lumpur Over Israel's Gaza Flotilla Raid
Journal: AFP
Text:
(Description of Source: Hong Kong AFP in English -- Hong Kong service of the independent French press agency Agence France-Presse)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational Political,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Hong Kong
Geographic Code: GZ,ISR,MYS,USA
Geographic Name: Gaza Strip,Israel,Malaysia,United States,Middle East,Asia,Americas,South East Asia,North Americas,MEDITERRANEAN,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,MALAYSIA,SOUTHEAST ASIA,MIDDLE EAST,ISRAEL,PALESTINEIP
Region: Middle East,Asia,Americas






-------------------- Monday August 24, 2009 T06:47:07Z --------------------
Title: Israel: Livni Nixes Settlement Freeze, Likud MKs Plan To Ensure Construction Goes On
Journal: Israel -- OSC Summary
Text:
Later in the newsreel, anchor Ya'aqov Ahime'ir interviewed Qadima chief Tzipi Livni.  Asked whether she considered a complete freeze on construction in the settlements acceptable, Livni replied:  "No, obviously I cannot accept a complete freeze on the settlements in Judea and Samaria.  The idea is untenable because it involves an enormous group on hundreds of thousands of settlers in Judea and Samaria.  These are people with families, who live there, and whose families are expanding.  We are talking here about construction in Jerusalem for which clearly there is not even a question of freezing construction.  We are talking about blocs of settlements, as well as construction that has already begun.  Construction has begun on thousands of buildings.  What are we going to do?  Stop the building in the middle?  There is also the issue of natural growth.  As I said, the families there are expanding."The 0500 GMT newscast on Network B reports:  "Minister of Culture and Sport Limor 
 Livnat from Likud said that the prime minister instructed the cabinet secretary to prepare an outline for the government's response to the High Court regarding the petitions contesting the legality of the construction in Judea and Samaria.  According to Livnat, when the State Attorney's Office responds to the petition submitted by Peace Now and says that the construction is not legal, the government must intervene and say that this is not its policy.  Tzali Reshef from Peace Now said that Livnat is forgetting that the country is governed by laws which apply to both the State Attorney's Office as well as the government.  Reshef said the State Attorney's Office has not argument with the government and its function is to say what is legal and what is not."On 24 August, right-of-center, independent daily Jerusalem The Jerusalem Post Online in English carried a video report of an interview with Likud MK Danon who is "looking to convene an urgent meeting with his fellow party memb
 ers, in order to establish a clear stance over the issue of freezing settlement activity."  The anchor notes that in the interview, Danon said he "trusts Netanyahu, but the Likud needs to make sure that he won't cave in to international pressure and that the construction of settlements continues."  (Click here to view OSC clip of the interview, or clickhttp://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1194419829128&amp;pagename=JPost%2FPage%2FVideoPlayer&amp;videoId=1249418669660 here to go to the Jerusalem Post Online video report)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalDomestic PoliticalLeaderUrgent,LEGAL,GOVERNMENTIP
City: 
Geographic Code: ISR,WE,GZ,USA
Geographic Name: Israel,West Bank,Gaza Strip,United States,Middle East,Americas,North Americas,MEDITERRANEAN,MIDDLE EAST,NORTH AMERICA,AMERICAS,ISRAEL,USAIP
Region: Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Sunday August 2, 2009 T02:10:57Z --------------------
Title: The following are highlights of science news reports carried by the Israeli media between 1 and 31 July. To request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735, or fax (703) 613-5735.
Journal: Israel -- OSC Summary
Text:
http://www.soreq.gov.il/ http://www.soreq.gov.il ) Defense-Commissioned 'Perfection Tool' To Help Nab Criminals, TerroristsAn undated Tel Aviv University press release states: "It's a frequent scene in television crime dramas: Clever police technicians zoom in on a security camera video to read a license plate or capture the face of a hold-up artist. But in real life, enhancing this low-quality video to focus in on important clues hasn't been an easy task. Until now. Prof. Leonid Yaroslavsky of Tel Aviv University and his colleagues have developed a new video 'perfection tool' to help investigators enhance raw video images and identify suspects. Commissioned by a defense-related company to improve what the naked eye cannot see, the tool can be used with live video or with recordings, in color or black-and-white. 'This enhancement of resolution can be a critical factor in locating terrorists or identifying criminal suspects,' says Prof. Yaroslavsky. His team's findings were re
 cently published in Optical Letters and the Journal of Real Time Image Processing."  "The technology will increase the odds of identifying suspects in court, says Prof. Yaroslavsky, but its civilian applications are equally significant. Instead of sending large video files over the Internet, smaller and lower-resolution files could be sent, to be enhanced at their destination points. This could save bandwidth and time."  (Tel Aviv Tel Aviv University News -- Website of TAU offering news in all fields researched by the institution; URL:http://www2.tau.ac.il/news/engnew.asp http://www2.tau.ac.il/news/engnew.asp ) Israeli Company, NASA To Develop Alga Biofuel Arutz Sheva Onlinereports on 5 July:  "An Israeli company announced that it will work with the NASA Glenn Research Center to develop an on-going collaborative research and development program for using algae as a viable source of biofuel. Seambiotic develops marine microalgae for the nutraceutical and biofuel industries. U
 nder the agreement reported by Green Prophet, NASA Glenn and Seambiotic USA will work together to improve production processes and to study and qualify algae oil from alternative species. The endeavor aims to use algae to generate a viable alternative aviation fuel for NASA's rockets." (Bet El Arutz Sheva Online in English -- Website of popular settler news service; URL:http://www.israelnationalnews.com/ http://www.israelnationalnews.com ) TAU Fights Swine Flu Pandemic With MathematicsAn undated TAU report states: "As swine flu spreads across America, good data can make all the difference in controlling it. Who needs to get antiviral medications first? Who can wait? When should counties and states shut down airports, schools, and highways? When should they tell people to stay home from school and work? As America -- and the world -- braces for the worst, a team of Tel Aviv University mathematicians says it may have a solution that can save both time and lives. Prof. Lewi Sto
 ne and his colleagues at TAU`s Department of Life Sciences are creating a statistical tool which, they believe, has the power to macro- and micromanage pandemic influenza outbreaks. Their secret weapon is the most extensive database in the world dealing with influenza outbreaks. 'We've accessed a veritable gold-mine of data, collected over 10 years in Israel by a large network of hospital and medical clinics,' says Prof. Stone. 'It gives us a country-wide picture of what a seasonal flu is like and how much worse it would be if there were a swine flu pandemic.' Funded by Epiwork, a European Union project, the Tel Aviv University team -- which also includes Dr. Haggai Katriel, Uri Roll, Oren Barnea and Rami Yaari, all from TAU`s Faculty of Life Sciences -- hopes to have a commercial version of the model available in three years. Prof. Stone, one of the project's managers, is a world expert in managing childhood epidemics like measles and mumps, and published a landmark study o
 n his work two years ago in Nature. The new Tel Aviv University model might also be used to understand bio-terror attacks, should such a catastrophic event take place." Israeli, Palestinian Company Develops Virtual Desktop Product The Jerusalem Post (Electronic Edition)reports on 16 July: "A technology company with a team of both Palestinians and Israelis gathered at the security barrier between Beit Jala and Har Gilo on Tuesday night to launch the beta version of their virtual desktop product, which allows users access to their data files and applications from any Internet browser. In 2006, when Zvi Schreiber established G.ho.st (Global Hosted Operating SysTem), he chose to open the company's main headquarters in Ramallah. He would also set up another office in Modi'in, 15 kilometers away. 'Ghosts go through walls,' Schreiber said at the launch, adding that he hoped the company's technological advancement could aid in bridging the communication gap between Israelis and Pale
 stinians. The group conducts its meetings mainly through Skype, a software application that allows users to communicate through video and audio calls over the Internet, as the two office locations make it difficult for the team members to meet in person. The group developed the prototype of the virtual desktop a year after the company was founded, launching the alpha version of the product in May 2008. Around 200,000 people tested the alpha version. The beta version runs in over 20 different languages. The idea of having remote access to a home desktop is not revolutionary, but the technology and approach G.ho.st has used make the process faster and do not require the user to have a home computer. G.ho.st's Web operating system gives each user his or her own virtual desktop hosted in a professional data center on the Web. Documents and photos can be uploaded to the Web page, or home computers can be synced to the virtual desktop, where 15 GB can be stored. Files can be share
 d between users and accessed through mobile phone Internet browsers." (Jerusalem The Jerusalem Post (Electronic Edition) in English -- Right-of-center, independent daily; URL:http://jpost.newspaperdirect.com/epaper/viewer.aspx http://jpost.newspaperdirect.com/epaper/viewer.aspx ) Heart-Healing Seaweed Gel Gets $282m Deal ISRAEL21creports on 20 July:  "It is the most expensive seaweed known to medical history: a new heart-healing gel based on brown seaweed has just been rewarded with a record investment deal. The Israeli company BioLineRx, founded in 2003, just released the news that one if its two compounds -- the BL-1040 -- to repair damaged heart muscles after cardiac arrest, has been licensed by the New Jersey-based company Ikaria Holdings in a $282.5 million deal, confirms a BioLineRx representative, Dganit Bar. Ikaria now owns the worldwide exclusive license to BL-1040, and what could be a potential breakthrough treatment for preventing repeat heart attacks after an ini
 tial event. Injected into the heart as a liquid, when inside the body BL-1040 turns into a protective gel scaffold, sheathing the heart muscles and giving them the ability to heal properly. In effect it enhances the mechanical strength of the heart muscle during recovery and repair. Animal model experiments completed by the company earlier revealed that some 90 percent of animals treated with the gel survived a heart attack, while among those untreated, only 40% survived."  (California ISRAEL21c -- Website of nonprofit corporation aiming to inform Americans about Israel; URL:http://www.israel21c.org/ www.israel21c.org ) HUJI Scientist Develops Nanotech Vehicle for Oral Drug Delivery ISRAEL21creports on 23 July: "It may be the latest scientific trend, but Professor Simon Benita of the Hebrew University's School of Pharmacy has been working with nanotechnology since long before it had a name. His 25 years of research in nanotech has culminated in a new vehicle for oral drug de
 livery based on the microencapsulated double-coated nanocapsules that he developed."Normally, our bodies' defenses would stop and break down orally administered drugs, so that we only benefit from about three-quarters of their potential effectiveness. Now, thanks to P-gpBypass, Benita's invention, important cancer and HIV drugs as well as a range of immunosupressants should be able to slip through those defenses to treat disease more effectively."The oral route is preferred, but only 40 percent of all drugs are water-soluble. This means that many drugs are administered intravenously, which is less effective and may lead to unpleasant side effects, or, they are delivered orally, in which case they have limited bioavailability. When delivered orally, Benita explains to ISRAEL21c, drugs activate an intestinal pump barrier, the P-gp efflux pump, and are broken down in the intestine and the liver, losing about a quarter of their potency in the process. 'We took advantage of nanot
 echnology to design a Trojan horse similar to Taxol (a cancer drug),' says Benita. 'It's in a nanocapsule embedded in a micro-sphere, and not releasing into the intestine. . . it's not activating the P-gp efflux pump. . . it is so small, it slips through.'"At 100 nm, Benita's drug-laden nanocapsules are a new drug delivery system that could make painful injections and intravenous lipophilic drugs a thing of the past.""Benita's solution means that pharmaceutical developers can work around the intestinal pump, bypassing the gut enzyme metabolism, delivering maximum drug power without the side effects. Benita and his team of four at the School of Pharmacy tested his platform recently on the immunosuppressant tacrolimus which is given to transplant patients to help prevent rejection of their new organs. Their tests showed that they could deliver the drug and unlock 2.4 times its bioavailability, or active ingredients, since their size provides protection from the GI enzymes in t
 he intestines."These encouraging results in animal studies led the Hebrew University's tech transfer arm, the Yissum Research Development Company, to enter into a deal with Israel-based Aurum Ventures MKI, which will test the platform with the aim of refining it for commercial success. Aurum Ventures MKI is the technology investment arm of Morris Kahn, a prominent Israeli businessman, philanthropist and entrepreneur."Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: TechnologyEnergyInternational EconomicHealth,ENVIRONMENT,PRODUCT APPLICATIONS,RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENTIP
City: 
Geographic Code: ISR,USA,WE,GZ
Geographic Name: Israel,United States,West Bank,Gaza Strip,Middle East,Americas,North Americas,AMERICAS,USA,PALESTINE,ISRAEL,MEDITERRANEAN,NORTH AMERICA,MIDDLE EASTIP
Region: Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Thursday June 11, 2009 T11:02:42Z --------------------
Title: Report by Michel Abu-Nijm in Paris: "Official French Sources to 'Al-Sharq al-Awsat': Washington and European Capitals Are Seeking To Form United Front Against Settlements"
Journal: Al-Sharq al-Awsat Online
Text:
These sources, which talked to "Al-Sharq al-Awsat", reported that "the two sides are examining what practical measures can be taken" on the settlements issue to force Israel to stop them in all their types.  Paris believes the "real opportunity today" is that the United States and the EU "can form a united front" to push for peace since their "deep" agreement will prevent this or that party, especially the Israeli one, from exploiting the differences.  The sources assert that the essence of the discussion is "that if Israel does not actually respect its obligations in the roadmap and Annapolis, then concrete and tangible measures will be taken against it" to force it to implement its pledges.  Paris believes President Obama is "honest and serious in his search for peace in the Middle East" and therefore "all the parties capable of helping him should not delay doing so", including the EU and Arab countries.  The French sources noticed that "it is the first time that US officia
 ls assert that the establishment of a Palestinian state is a US national interest", which signifies this administration's seriousness and desire "to benefit from the political and diplomatic dynamism" available to it during its first months in office.According to the French view, the "EU should have at least the same determination and enthusiasm" that the US administration is showing and therefore "the latter must be helped and joined", firstly, in the issue of the settlements so as to stop them and, secondly, by offering proposals and guarantees so as to help the parties reach solutions for the pending issues.  Europe is proposing the deployment of forces at the entrances to Gaza and the return of the observers at the crossings and even increasing their numbers and expanding their tasks and to help find the acceptable ways out for the Jerusalem issue, help the Authority to build its own security forces, help the Israeli forces' withdrawal from Palestinian cities, in additio
 n to the local financial and economic assistance at present and the more general one within the framework of a comprehensive solution that includes the issue of the Palestinian refugees.Paris had proposed holding a peace conference very soon but the French sources told "Al-Sharq al-Awsat" that the US side responded by saying the conditions "are not ripe" yet for holding such a summit.  At their meeting last Saturday, Sarkozy promised Obama "to help him" in the Middle East by acting to create a "cohesive and supportive European front" in the region despite the hesitation in some countries' stands, like Germany, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, and Poland when the matter concerns Israel.  Yet, the EU countries suspended a decision to strengthen European-Israeli relations following the recent Gaza war.Moreover, Paris believes that the Arabs should go along with the US move and not just keep reiterating that they proposed the Arab peace initiative in 2002 and reactivated it 
 at the Riyadh Arab summit in the spring of 2007.  Paris also believes that the Arabs should avail themselves of the dynamism of Obama's diplomacy and his sincere desire to have some achievement in the peace issue and is therefore saying "the smart thinking is to squeeze Israel into a corner by the steps they can possibly take" which indicate their desire for peace in return for a real stoppage of Israeli settlements and commitment to reach peace.  The sources went on to say:  "We are telling the Arabs:  Help Obama and do not hesitate to build some confidence arrangements which can arm the US President and give him the arguments against Israel."  But the intractable problem for Paris remains the internal Palestinian situation which is weakening the Palestinians and giving Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu the arguments for resisting the pressures by saying "how can we cooperate with or give a state to such persons who do not have any credibility?"(Description of Sourc
 e: London Al-Sharq al-Awsat Online in Arabic -- Website of influential London-based pan-Arab Saudi daily; editorial line reflects Saudi official stance. URL: http://www.asharqalawsat.com/)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalLeader,GOVERNMENTIP
City: London
Geographic Code: FRA,GZ,ISR,USA,WE
Geographic Name: France,Gaza Strip,Israel,United States,West Bank,Europe,Middle East,Americas,South Europe,North Americas,FRANCE,MEDITERRANEAN,NORTH AMERICA,USA,AMERICAS,EUROPE,SAUDI ARABIA,MIDDLE EAST,ARAB STATES,GULF STATES,WESTERN EUROPE,ISRAEL,PALESTINEIP
Region: Europe,Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Friday May 14, 2010 T13:27:48Z --------------------
Title: "Baltic Assembly Calls For Clarity in US-Europe Relations During Debate on New Security Strategy in Riga" -- BNS headline
Journal: BNS
Text:
Latvian Defense Minister Imants Liegis was the first to discuss the US-Europe relations in his speech.He said that transatlantic security cooperation largely depended on the US priorities arising from the position of the current US administration and other factors, including approach of the next presidential elections.Liegis said that current US priorities were the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan, relations with Russia and nuclear arms issues.In his speech the Latvian defense minister said that the security situation in the Baltic states had undergone serious changes during the last decade as Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia had become members of both the EU and NATO.He said that in his personal opinion "the glass is half-full rather than half-empty" concerning achievements and future tasks regarding the Baltic security.The participants of the debate also included academicians, and Toms Rostoks, the political science lecturer with the University of Latvia, also noted "the
  need for clarity in transatlantic relations."He said that "the US-Europe mutual security police had not been too clear" while pragmatic approach was understandable where a head of state had to deal with consequences dating back to two world wars and the recent economic crisis while also keeping in mind coming presidential elections.Rostoks suggested that several issues had to be clarified in the transatlantic relations such as which were the issues that the United States would handle on its own, in which issues the United States would need the European support and what would be the forms and amounts of the required support.University of Latvia Professor Zanete Ozolina, who chaired the debate, also said that uncertainty about the expectations for mutual cooperation suggested that the United States and Europe also needed "to press the Reset button", like the United States had done in relations with Russia.The Baltic Assembly on Friday organized a debate "On the Way to New Sec
 urity Strategies" with participants from the Baltic states, Benelux, GUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Moldova) and Nordic countries exchanging opinions and ideas about new security strategies on transatlantic, European and regional level.Defense ministers of the three Baltic states were also invited to attend the event.The Baltic Assembly, founded in 1991, is an organization for parliamentary cooperation between Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania.This year the rotating presidency of the Baltic Assembly is held by Latvia.(Description of Source: Riga BNS in English -- Baltic News Service, the largest private news agency in the Baltic States, providing news on political developments in all three Baltic countries; URL: http://www.bns.lv)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalLeaderMilitary,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Riga
Geographic Code: LVA,LTU,EST,USA,RUS,AFG,PAK
Geographic Name: Latvia,Lithuania,Estonia,United States,Russia,Afghanistan,Pakistan,Europe,Americas,Eurasia,Asia,North Europe,North Americas,South Asia,NORTHERN EUROPE,NORTH AMERICA,USA,AMERICAS,EUROPE,BALTIC STATES,LITHUANIA,LATVIA,ESTONIA,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Europe,Americas,Eurasia,Asia






-------------------- Wednesday June 2, 2010 T02:01:21Z --------------------
Title: Updated version: Upgrading precedence, adding metadata, rewording headline, adding cross refs; Yonhap headline: "S Korea, US To Rattle Saber Against N Korea in Yellow Sea Next Week"
Journal: Yonhap
Text:
(Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalLeaderMilitaryProliferationUrgent
City: Seoul
Geographic Code: PRK,KOR,USA
Geographic Name: North Korea,South Korea,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,SOUTH KOREA,NORTH KOREA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T12:36:52Z --------------------
Title: Report by Na Jeong-ju: "Lee Calls For Post-Reunification Security Measures"
Journal: The Korea Times Online
Text:
(Description of Source: Seoul The Korea Times Online in English -- Website of The Korea Times, an independent and moderate English-language daily published by its sister daily Hanguk Ilbo from which it often draws articles and translates into English for publication; URL: http://www.koreatimes.co.kr)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: LeaderMilitaryInternational Political
City: Seoul
Geographic Code: KOR,PRK,USA
Geographic Name: South Korea,North Korea,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,SOUTH KOREA,NORTH KOREAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T11:56:35Z --------------------
Title: Report by Jung Sung-ki; For assistance with multimedia elements, contact the OSC Customer Center at (800) 205-8615 or oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
Journal: The Korea Times Online
Text:
(Paik  Sun-yup, who served as the first chief of staff of the Republic ofKorea Army  during the 1950-53 Korean War (The Korea Times, 1  June))Paik Sun-yup cites Korea Times' role during war This is the first in a series of articles to mark the 60th anniversary of the outbreak of the Korean War. The Korea Times interviewed retired Army General Paik Sun-yup who led the ROK military during the 1950-53 war.The country's first four-star general has called for a stronger combined defense posture in South Korea's alliance with the United States, which he said is the best way to deter continuing North Korean provocations."The thing is how strong is the combined defense capability of the ROK and U.S. militaries and how solid is their alliance," said Paik Sun-yup, 90, who served as the first chief of staff of the Republic of Korea Army during the 1950-53 Korean War.Paik, credited with brilliant feats throughout the fratricidal war, was seemingly referring to the latest North Korean pro
 vocation in the sinking of a South Korean Navy ship in the West Sea on March 26."We should take stern measures in retaliation for the ship sinking with the invocation of the use of self-defense," the war veteran said in an interview with The Korea Times at the War Memorial of Korea, Seoul, May 25, citing President Lee Myung-bak (Yi Myo'ng-pak)'s pledge a day earlier.In a nationally televised address at the memorial, Lee said the government will use its right of self-defense, should the North make incursions into South Korean territory. The President announced a set of countermeasures, including cutting trade ties with the North and resuming psychological warfare near the inter-Korean border.Paik said the planned transition of wartime operational control of South Korean troops from the U.S. military to the ROK armed forces in 2012 should be delayed for the time being.Meanwhile, Paik recalled that during the Korean War, The Korea Times played a key role in informing the outsid
 e world of the situation in Korea as well as to bridge the language gap between South Korean and U.N. forces."The Korea Times was the only English newspaper at that time," he said. "Since being liberated from Japan's colonial rule in 1945 following the end of World War II, the country was under the control of the U.S. military until 1948."He continued, "At that time, 'Corea' was hardly known to the outside world. So the Syngman Rhee government made the utmost effort to introduce the country abroad. I remember that the founding of The Korea Times was part of those efforts."Communication with U.S. and other foreign allied forces was pivotal in conducting joint operations during the war, the retired general said."Some ROK commanders were fluent in speaking English and those who were not so good received help from interpreter officers," he said. "I remember many U.N. forces got to know about the ROK situation and policies through The Korea Times, so the newspaper's role was very
  important during wartime."Kim Hwal-lan (1899-1970), also known as Helen Kim, was chosen by the nation's first President Syngman Rhee to serve as bureau chief of the public information agency after the North Korean invasion on June 25, 1950.Kim, the country's first female Ph.D. holder and the first Korean president of Ewha College, the predecessor of Ewha Woman's University, founded The Korea Times and published the first issue on Nov. 1, 1950.(Description of Source: Seoul The Korea Times Online in English -- Website of The Korea Times, an independent and moderate English-language daily published by its sister daily Hanguk Ilbo from which it often draws articles and translates into English for publication; URL: http://www.koreatimes.co.kr)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: LeaderMilitaryInternational Political,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRSIP
City: Seoul
Geographic Code: KOR,USA,PRK
Geographic Name: South Korea,United States,North Korea,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,SOUTH KOREA,NORTH KOREAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T11:28:35Z --------------------
Title: Report by Kang Hyun-kyung: "N. Korean Leader Wary of Uncensored News"
Journal: The Korea Times Online
Text:
(Description of Source: Seoul The Korea Times Online in English -- Website of The Korea Times, an independent and moderate English-language daily published by its sister daily Hanguk Ilbo from which it often draws articles and translates into English for publication; URL: http://www.koreatimes.co.kr)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: MilitaryInternational PoliticalLeader,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Seoul
Geographic Code: KOR,PRK,USA
Geographic Name: South Korea,North Korea,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,SOUTH KOREA,NORTH KOREA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T07:13:36Z --------------------
Title: ROK Editorial on 'Important Lesson For Conspiracy Theorists' Over Ch'o'nan Probe Results
Journal: Chosun Ilbo Online
Text:
(Description of Source: Seoul Chosun Ilbo Online in English -- English website carrying English summaries and full translations of vernacular hard copy items of the largest and oldest daily Chosun Ilbo, which is conservative in editorial orientation -- strongly nationalistic, anti-North Korea, and generally pro-US; URL: http://english.chosun.com)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: ProliferationInternational PoliticalTechnologyMilitary
City: Seoul
Geographic Code: KOR,PRK,USA
Geographic Name: South Korea,North Korea,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,SOUTH KOREA,NORTH KOREA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T05:56:31Z --------------------
Title: OSC plans to process the below-cited Rodong Sinmun "signed commentary" as first referent item; KCNA headline: "U.S. Accused of Straining Situation on Korean Peninsula"
Journal: KCNA
Text:
(Description of Source: Pyongyang KCNA in English -- Official DPRK news agency. URL: http://www.kcna.co.jp)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: ProliferationInternational EconomicMilitaryInternational Political
City: Pyongyang
Geographic Code: KOR,PRK,USA
Geographic Name: South Korea,North Korea,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,SOUTH KOREA,NORTH KOREA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Friday February 5, 2010 T12:20:35Z --------------------
Title: ROK Defense Ministry Denies Daily's Report of US-ROK Drill for NK Contingency
Journal: The Korea Times Online
Text:
(Description of Source: Seoul The Korea Times Online in English -- Website of The Korea Times, an independent and moderate English-language daily published by its sister daily Hanguk Ilbo from which it often draws articles and translates into English for publication; URL: http://www.koreatimes.co.kr)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: ProliferationInternational PoliticalMilitaryInternational Economic,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Seoul
Geographic Code: KOR,PRK,USA
Geographic Name: South Korea,North Korea,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,SOUTH KOREA,NORTH KOREA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Monday August 24, 2009 T11:01:08Z --------------------
Title: ROK Daily: US Official Says Tourism Projects 'Not in Violation' of UN Sanctions on DPRK
Journal: The Korea Times Online
Text:
(Description of Source: Seoul The Korea Times Online in English -- Website of The Korea Times, an independent and moderate English-language daily published by its sister daily Hanguk Ilbo from which it often draws articles and translates into English for publication; URL: http://www.koreatimes.co.kr)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: ProliferationInternational PoliticalInternational Economic,INTERNATIONAL ISSUES,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTIP
City: Seoul
Geographic Code: KOR,PRK,USA
Geographic Name: South Korea,North Korea,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,SOUTH KOREA,NORTH KOREA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Sunday August 23, 2009 T06:07:39Z --------------------
Title: KCNA: ROK Group Criticizes ROK Authorities' 'Hostile Policy' Toward DPRK
Journal: KCNA
Text:
(Description of Source: Pyongyang KCNA in English -- Official DPRK news agency. URL: http://www.kcna.co.jp)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: MilitaryInternational EconomicInternational PoliticalLeader
City: Pyongyang
Geographic Code: KOR,PRK,USA
Geographic Name: South Korea,North Korea,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,SOUTH KOREA,NORTH KOREA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Thursday August 20, 2009 T02:46:52Z --------------------
Title: ROK Daily: US, DPRK Should Meet at Funeral
Journal: The Korea Herald Online
Text:
(Description of Source: Seoul The Korea Herald Online in English -- Website of the generally pro-government English-language daily The Korea Herald; URL: http://www.koreaherald.co.kr)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalLeaderProliferationTELECOM,GOVERNMENT,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRSIP
City: Seoul
Geographic Code: KOR,PRK,USA
Geographic Name: South Korea,North Korea,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,SOUTH KOREA,NORTH KOREA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Thursday June 11, 2009 T11:44:05Z --------------------
Title: KCNA headline: "U.S. Wild Ambition to Dominate Whole of Korea Can Never Come True"; The vernacular full text of the below-cited Minju Joson item, obtained via the KPM website, is attached in HTML format.
Journal: KCNA
Text:
(Description of Source: Pyongyang KCNA in English -- Official DPRK news agency. URL: http://www.kcna.co.jp)Attachments:USdominationMJ11Jun09.htmMaterial in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: ProliferationMilitaryInternational PoliticalInternational Economic
City: Pyongyang
Geographic Code: PRK,KOR,USA
Geographic Name: North Korea,South Korea,United States,Asia,Americas,East Asia,North Americas,SOUTH KOREA,NORTH KOREA,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T19:45:31Z --------------------
Title: Report by staff correspondents: Israeli attack on Gaza flotilla condemned
Journal: The News Online
Text:
Protest demonstrations were staged outside the US Consulate and the Karachi Press Club (KPC) on Monday to condemn Israelis deadly assault on the Gaza flotilla that was carrying relief goods for Palestinians.Religious parties including Jamat-e-Islami (JI), Sunni Tehreek, Pasban, Islami Jamiat Talaba, Palestinian Foundation (PLF), Pakistan Jafferia Alliance and Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Pakistan along with people all walks of life took out protest rallies condemning the Israeli assault.PLF under the leadership of Allama Abbas Kumaili protested near the US Consulate. The protester chanted slogans against the Zionist states for their anti-Islamic policies and tried to storm the US Consulate. However, this attempt was blocked by the police. The protestors then staged a sit in that led to a massive traffic jam in the area.They demanded of the UN, OIC, Arab League, European Union and other human rights organisations to issue policies against Israel's illegal act and take a resolute stance ag
 ainst the recurring criminal acts by the Zionist nation against Muslims.Meanwhile, the JI staged protest outside the KPC to condemn the Israeli attack. The protestors held the US responsible for patronising Israel and dubbed the attack as an open violation of international law. Expressing solidarity with the people on board fthe freedom flotilla, they demanded of the International Court of Justice to register a case against Israel and its supporters.The JI also demanded an emergency session of the UN Security Council over Israel's aggression and asked the international community to realise their responsibility towards the abandoned Palestinians.The journalist fraternity has severely condemned Israel's brutal attack on the international aid flotilla aimed at providing humanitarian aid to the inhabitants of Gaza facing years-long atrocities and blockade by the Zionist state, Israel.Israeli forces attacked the Freedom Flotilla bound for Gaza earlier Monday, killing at least 20 
 activists and injuring scores of others. All the eight ships loaded with humanitarian aid and basic relief goods were seized and 750 journalists and civil society activists were detained."The interception on the convoy is unacceptable. It is open violation of basic human rights and freedom of speech," Afzaal Mohsin, President Karachi Union of Journalists (Dastoor), told the protesters belonging to various media organisations outside the Karachi Press Club."Israel will have to bear the consequences of its actions. The journalist fraternity of Pakistan strongly condemns the act. We are concerned about the state of Pakistani journalists, Talat Hussain and Raza Mahmood Agha on board the ships," Mohsin said."By targeting innocent civilians and media persons, Israel has once again clearly displayed its utter scorn for human lives, peaceful initiatives, and freedom of speech."He demanded of the government to take emergency measures to record its protest against Israel and ensure im
 mediate return of Pakistanis accompanying the flotilla.The protestors walked to the Governor's House and presented their protest to the Governor and proceeded towards the US Consulate-General but were persuaded by the KUJ leaders to turn back to keep the protest peaceful.(Description of Source: Islamabad The News Online in English -- Website of a widely read, influential English daily, member of the Jang publishing group. Neutral editorial policy, good coverage of domestic and international issues. Usually offers leading news and analysis on issues related to war against terrorism. Circulation estimated at 55,000; URL: http://www.thenews.com.pk/)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalLeaderMediaMilitary,SOCIAL ISSUES,LEGALIP
City: Islamabad
Geographic Code: PAK,ISR,USA
Geographic Name: Pakistan,Israel,United States,Asia,Middle East,Americas,South Asia,North Americas,PAKISTAN,MEDITERRANEAN,WESTERN ASIA,ASIA,MIDDLE EAST,SOUTHERN ASIA,INDIAN SUBCONTINENT,ISRAEL,PALESTINEIP
Region: Asia,Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T19:23:45Z --------------------
Title: Report by Mariana Baabar: Legal process for Aafia not yet over, says US
Journal: The News Online
Text:
ISLAMABAD: The United States says that the legal process for Dr Aafia Siddiqui is still ongoing and not concluded as yet. In a meeting on Monday with Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, US Ambassador to Pakistan Anne W Patterson said the case of Dr Aafia Siddiqui is still in the courts, therefore, discussion of future plans are premature. She urged the ministry to expedite travel documents for the Pakistani nationals awaiting deportation from the United States, said a statement from the US embassy. The Foreign Office has not commented on the issue despite the US statement being brought to their notice.In her meeting, the US envoy observed: "Dr Siddiqui has not yet been sentenced and also has the right to appeal her conviction -- so the US legal process is not yet concluded."(Description of Source: Islamabad The News Online in English -- Website of a widely read, influential English daily, member of the Jang publishing group. Neutral editorial p
 olicy, good coverage of domestic and international issues. Usually offers leading news and analysis on issues related to war against terrorism. Circulation estimated at 55,000; URL: http://www.thenews.com.pk/)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational Political,INTERNATIONAL ISSUESIP
City: Islamabad
Geographic Code: PAK,USA
Geographic Name: Pakistan,United States,Asia,Americas,South Asia,North Americas,PAKISTAN,INDIAN SUBCONTINENT,SOUTHERN ASIA,WESTERN ASIA,NORTH AMERICA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T13:22:28Z --------------------
Title: The following is a roundup of excerpts from articles on different aspects of the new US national security policy, which calls for partnership and diplomacy instead of force for the resolution of the disputes, and the visible change in the US policy that was adopted in the wake of the 9/11 incident, published in the 31 May editions of three Urdu dailies.
Journal: Pakistan -- OSC Summary
Text:
Hoping that the new security policy formulated by the Obama administration may bring improvement in international situation, the article comments: "Should we infer that the new US policy will put the world on a better course? Is it possible that the fear of an invisible giant gripping the world societies will die its natural death? Certainly, improvement should be expected. Because of its knowledge, experience, and expertise, it is possible for the West to draw up such policies that may diminish the growing hatred among countries, faiths, and societies. It is imperative in the prevailing situation because the dragon of poverty is devouring up the civilizations and other centers of prosperity one after the other." Jinnah Article by Qayyum Nizami Asks Zardari To Follow SuitEmphasizing that Pakistan should also revise the policy pursued by the previous regime of Musharraf, the article states: "By giving the new direction to the national security strategy, US President Barack Oba
 ma has impressed the international public opinion but also the US public opinion. This is also the duty of the Pakistani rulers to seriously deliberate on their foreign policy in the light of the new US security policy and take stock as to how far the policy formulated by General (retired) Pervez Musharraf proved useful and beneficial for Pakistan and its people. If US President Obama can change the policy of his predecessor George W. Bush, why elected Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari cannot change the policy of his predecessor, why he fails in making a decision about changing the policy formulated by his predecessor (former) President Gen (ret) Pervez Musharraf?" Jang Article by Dr Mujahid Mansuri Sees President Obama Implementing Slogan of ChangeSuggesting that US President is gradually implementing the pledge he had made for bringing about change, the article says: "This is a bitter chapter of the US history that Washington miserably failed in achieving the results of
  'the great tragedy' (9/11) in accordance with the nature of the US people. The United States plunged the country into the fear of the Taliban and Al-Qa'ida and it became imperative for the black US President Barack Obama, who entered into the White House by raising the slogan of 'change' to amend the US foreign and national security policies in accordance with his political will. However, two days ago, President Obama proved that he is about to adopt a scientific method to reverse the fear, mania, and revengeful emotions. The slogan of 'change' he raised during the 2008 presidential election appears to be molding into reality. The United States has announced to change its foreign and national security policy that was being followed for the past nine years. This is like a spring breeze blowing in from Washington."Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regardi
 ng use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalLeaderTerrorism
City: 
Geographic Code: PAK,USA
Geographic Name: Pakistan,United States,Asia,Americas,South Asia,North Americas,PAKISTAN,INDIAN SUBCONTINENT,SOUTHERN ASIA,WESTERN ASIA,NORTH AMERICA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T10:32:25Z --------------------
Title: Paper Says US Seems Succeeded To Prod Pakistan To Go for South Punjab Action
Journal: Pakistan Observer Online
Text:
THERE are all indications that the United States has succeeded in its attempts to prod Pakistan to go for, what is being viewed in the patriotic circles, suicidal operation in South Punjab. This is amply borne out by the latest statement churned out by Interior Minister Rehman Malik on the issue during his visit to Ahmadis' Model Town worship place in Lahore. Malik argued that hidden terrorists in South Punjab had now come in the open with their nefarious designs and attacks in Lahore were a manifestation of their presence in the region. He also claimed that those involved in attacks in Lahore on Friday belonged to South Punjab and had their roots in Balochistan and FATA.The Minister, who should otherwise demonstrate a serious and mature conduct, has always behaved on the contrary and issues half-baked statements may be on hearsay on issues of critical importance. In the first place, one fails to understand how he has come to the conclusion so soon that the terrorists involve
 d in Lahore attacks were from South Punjab. Similar conjectures were made by a section of the media by putting on air reports that Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (South Punjab Chapter) has accepted responsibility of the firing on two places of worships of Ahmadis. If Interior Minister and his apparatus is so efficient that they have established links of the terrorists with South Punjab then the question arises why they could not foresee these and similar other attacks in different parts of the country and acted to prevent them. The statement of the Interior Minister should not be seen in isolation, as some forces have long been conspiring to suck Pakistan and its Armed Forces in an unending vicious circle of instability and uncertainty. Earlier too, Rehman Malik had made similar claims and talked about the possibility of Army operation in South Punjab and we had pointed out at that time that grounds were being prepared for a greater game. Some members of the Government's coalitio
 n partners from Khyber-Pukhtunkhwa too have been advocating for the launch of a military operation in the area. But there are other developments as well that confirm reports that incidents are being engineered to force Pakistan to go for operations in North Waziristan and then in South Punjab. Apart from several threatening statements from Washington including those from Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and the failed drama of attack in New York implicating an American of Pakistani origin, a report appearing in Washington Post on Saturday (May 29, 2010) revealed that the US military leaders were reviewing options for a unilateral strike in Pakistan if there is a successful attack on American soil tied to the country's tribal areas. Though the report was rejected the next day by Admiral Mike Mullen yet the very fact that such reports keep on appearing is an indication that something ominous was in the offing and at least this on and off approach is being applied to force Pa
 kistan to toe American lines without considering its own national interests and dangers to its security and very survival. American denials notwithstanding, the US thinking was reflected in the drafting of the controversial Kerry-Lugar law, which mentions Muridkey and Quetta as strongholds of 'terrorists' and Taliban's Quetta Shoora. The US has its own strategy but the conduct of some of our own people is reprehensible. Regrettably a person of the stature of Rehman Malik, who is a responsible Minister is engaged in deplorable efforts to deepen the South Punjab phobia. We would urge the public opinion makers to take serious notice of the conspiracy being hatched to destabilize Pakistan and sensitize people about the dangers of any mad move in South Punjab. It should particularly be a matter of concern for Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani and Foreign Minister Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi as both of them belong to the same region and launching of military operation by th
 eir Government would be a plunge into political darkness.(Description of Source: Islamabad Pakistan Observer Online in English -- Website of the pro-military daily with readership of 5,000. Anti-India, supportive of Saudi policies, strong supporter of Pakistan's nuclear and missile program. Chief Editor Zahid Malik is the author of books on nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan; URL: http://www.pakobserver.net)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalLeaderTerrorism,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Islamabad
Geographic Code: PAK,USA
Geographic Name: Pakistan,United States,Asia,Americas,South Asia,North Americas,PAKISTAN,NORTH AMERICA,WESTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,SOUTHERN ASIA,INDIAN SUBCONTINENTIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T08:10:41Z --------------------
Title: Pakistan Asks World Community To Take Notice of Israeli Attack on Aid Ships
Journal: The News Online
Text:
ISLAMABAD: Expressing concern over attack on Gaza-bound aid ships in the international waters, Pakistan on Monday demanded of the world community to take serious notice of this incident.Talking to newsmen at the airport here, Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi said: "Pakistan has strongly protested against the incident."He asked the OIC secretary-general to convene an emergency meeting of the organisation to discuss the issue with consultation and consensus with other members. He said the Untied Nations should also take immediate action on this incident.He said there was no moral and legal justification of this attack and it was also violation of the international borders, because the "Freedom Flotilla", carrying relief goods, was attacked in the open sea.Qureshi said Pakistan was also using all possible means to get information about the well-being of the Pakistani journalists onboard the Freedom Flotilla.He said he had talked to US Ambassador Anne W Patterson by phone to
  use her influence and diplomatic sources to get the latest information about the status of the journalists.The foreign minister said according to latest reports, so far 20 people died in this incident and over 60 were injured.He said Pakistan was deeply concerned about the media persons, including Syed Talat Hussain, a representative of a private TV channel.He said he had talked to the wife of Talat Hussain to satisfy her that the government was doing whatever it could for securing the release of the journalist and his colleagues.Qureshi said: "Our embassy in Ankara, Cairo and Oman and other missions in the EU have also been motivated to get information."He said he talked to Pakistan's ambassadors in Ankara and Cairo to get the latest information on this incident and made efforts for their release.He said the top priority for the government was to influence the international community to condemn the issue and provide medical treatment to the injured and avoid more aggressio
 n."It is a very serious issue. About 630 activists from 40 countries of the world were onboard on the Freedom Flotilla to provide human assistance to the Palestinians, who are suffering from food and water," said the foreign minister.He said there were eight ships in the Freedom Flotilla from different countries, including the UK and Greece, which had been affected due this incident. Qureshi said the incident needed international attention.Replying to a question, he said Pakistan was in touch with the Arab League, which had summoned its emergency meeting to take up the issue of the attack by Israel on the Freedom Flotilla.He said he would also consult with President Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani and other political leaders to take the future line of action on this incident. He said he also tried to contact the Turkish foreign minister, but he was onboard and could not talk to him.He said neither Pakistan nor the international community was able to conta
 ct the people who were onboard the Freedom Flotilla, as there was no telephonic connection available.(Description of Source: Islamabad The News Online in English -- Website of a widely read, influential English daily, member of the Jang publishing group. Neutral editorial policy, good coverage of domestic and international issues. Usually offers leading news and analysis on issues related to war against terrorism. Circulation estimated at 55,000; URL: http://www.thenews.com.pk/)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalLeaderMilitary,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Islamabad
Geographic Code: PAK,ISR,USA
Geographic Name: Pakistan,Israel,United States,Asia,Middle East,Americas,South Asia,North Americas,PAKISTAN,MIDDLE EAST,INDIAN SUBCONTINENT,SOUTHERN ASIA,WESTERN ASIA,TURKEY,PALESTINE,ASIA,ISRAELIP
Region: Asia,Middle East,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T07:32:03Z --------------------
Title: Pakistan Paper Criticizes Israeli Raid on Aid Fleet, US Reaction to Brutal Act
Journal: The Nation Online
Text:
THE brutal attack on the six-ship flotilla, carrying 10,000 tons of humanitarian aid and 600 passengers, for the Palestinian Gazans who have been besieged for the past three years, is just one more instance of Israel's rank depravity that, nevertheless, would hardly have surprised anyone in the international community. Much before the Jewish state was thrust upon the Palestinians and usurped their land, the forerunners of the waves of settlers acted like marauding hordes, killing and plundering, destroying and expropriating the lands and properties of local inhabitants. And since the state machinery at Tel Aviv assumed the executioner's role and powerful political forces in the world carry a dead conscience that tradition of open acts of inhumanity has flourished.Even today when the flotilla, organised by Greta Berlin, with notably a Nobel laureate, some European parliamentarians and human rights promoters, who also included two Pakistanis, on board, was peacefully sailing to
 wards the Gaza coast, attempting to break the cruel blockade but was still 65km away in international waters, it was met with a barbaric display of force. Helicopter gunship, a popular weapon of Israel, used to mow down the helpless Palestinians fleeing from their periodic onslaughts, came into action on Monday morning, and the Jewish entity's navy launched a massive attack killing at least 19 and wounding 36 others. The ships were commandeered and being towed to the port of Ashdod, with the Israelis threatening that the passengers would be deported and on their refusal to leave the country jailed. The flotilla was accused by the Israelis of using deadly force and initiating violence; the unarmed passengers plead total innocence.Condemnation was quick to pour in from Pakistan (calling "the killing of members of this humanitarian mission...brutal, inhuman and constituting a flagrant violation of international law and norms"), Turkey (where protests also took place in front of
  the Israeli consulate at Istanbul) and Indonesia. Among the Europeans, only France condemned it and Spain and Sweden summoned Israeli ambassadors to their Foreign Offices. The EU just confined itself to calling for a "timely" probe of the incident. But it seems quite significant that the Americans could not hit upon stronger words than "deeply regret" the loss of life, with the Obama Administration "currently working to understand the circumstances surrounding this tragedy". One can imagine their President, otherwise keen to improve the US image in the Muslim world and still carrying a semblance of an aura of peace and justice in the world, probably, still weighing the political cost of condemnation on the home front.While Tel Aviv merits severest condemnation, it is hard to put the US in a category of lesser offenders.(Description of Source: Islamabad The Nation Online in English -- Website of a conservative daily, part of the Nawa-i-Waqt publishing group. Circulation arou
 nd 20,000; URL: http://www.nation.com.pk)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Human RightsInternational PoliticalLeader,SOCIAL ISSUESIP
City: Islamabad
Geographic Code: ISR,PAK,TUR,USA
Geographic Name: Israel,Pakistan,Turkey,United States,Middle East,Asia,Europe,Americas,South Asia,South Europe,North Americas,PAKISTAN,MEDITERRANEAN,WESTERN ASIA,ASIA,EUROPE,MIDDLE EAST,SOUTHERN ASIA,INDIAN SUBCONTINENT,ISRAEL,PALESTINEIP
Region: Middle East,Asia,Europe,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday September 29, 2009 T07:44:00Z --------------------
Title: Report by Javed Aziz Khan: "Despite denials, Blackwater controversy refuses to fade away"
Journal: The News Online
Text:
PESHAWAR: The issue of Blackwater or its successor firm, Xe Worldwide, refuses to go away despite denials by the US and Pakistani authorities about its presence in Pakistan.Top government officials, including Federal Interior Minister Rahman Malik, are technically correct in denying the presence of Blackwater in the country as the name of the company had been changed to Xe Worldwide LLC or simply Xe since February 13.However, many people including the deputy leader of the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) Pakistan and former senior NWFP minister, Sirajul Haq, have a different viewpoint. He alleged that Blackwater or Xe Worldwide has not only set up its headquarters in University Town, but a building had recently been constructed for it in Mohmand Agency."The first news that I got on my return after performing Umrah yesterday was that the building for that company in Mohmand Agency has been completed. They are also hiring PC now, which is close to the Governor's House, Chief Minister's Hou
 se, Corps Commander House, NWFP Assembly and headquarters of police and other security agencies," Sirajul Haq said.He was of the view that the project was being led by the American Embassy in Pakistan. "We are planning to create awareness among the public over the issue, discuss it with the intelligentsia and mobilise a public resistance movement against the growing activities of foreign security personnel," the JI leader said.Arbab Mohammad Tahir, the spokesman for the ruling Awami National Party (ANP), declined to comment on the issue. He said how his party can comment on the issue when the presence of the Blackwater or Xe is yet to be proved, adding the US and Pakistani governments have time and again denied the existence of the US security firm in the country."This is the propaganda of religious parties having sympathies with the militants. The ANP will comment only when the presence of the company in the province will be proved," Arbab Tahir added.The University Town Re
 sidents Welfare Society had expressed concerns on behalf of its 800 members over the presence of a large number of foreigners, who have been hiring buildings in residential area. The dwellers and visitors have observed the movement of foreigners in cars with tinted glasses in the locality for the past several months.When asked whether the weapons these foreigners are carrying in their vehicles were licensed, the senior superintendent of police (SSP) Peshawar said he has "no information". The Frontier Police chief has already denied the presence of foreign security officials in his area.There were unconfirmed reports that the personnel of Xe have been living in the city in the guise of the officials of the NGOs and other bodies, lodged in several bungalows in the posh University Town.Apart from the spacious US Consulate on Hospital Road in Peshawar Cantonment, there were reports that people and firms linked with the US hired 25 buildings on Circular Road, Chinar Road, Gul Moh
 ar Lane, Park Road, SAQ Road, Jamaluddin Afghani Road, Park Avenue, Rahman Baba Road, Railway Road, AB Road and Sahibzada Abdul Qayyum Road in the University Town for offices of private companies and NGOs. These reports have always been denied.MPA Ateefur Rahman whose constituency includes the University Town as well, denied the presence of suspicious foreigners in rented houses in the area. "This is all speculation," he told The News."This is a residential area, but several bungalows have been hired now for the offices of the foreign bodies," lamented a senior office-bearer of the University Town Residents' Society.The Xe is a private military company founded as Blackwater USA in 1997 by a wealthy American, Erik Prince. The organisation operates one of the world's largest training facility, spread over around 6,000 acres, which trains more than 40,000 people a year, mostly from American or foreign military and police services.Apart from JI, the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl and
  Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf have also expressed concerns over the reports of growing presence of foreign security personnel in Pakistan.Also, there are worries among the elite class over the reported deal being negotiated between the US Embassy and proprietors of the Pearl Continental (PC) to establish diplomatic mission in the lone five-star hotel of the provincial capital. The hotel closed down after a suicide bombing on June 9."We have been hearing about the deal of selling or renting out the PC to the Americans. This will disappoint thousands," remarked Nadeem Malik, who along with his son survived the June 9 blast.At least 17 people were killed and over 50 others injured in the bomb blast in PC. Despite denials by the investigators, there were reports that those killed in the blast included foreign security officials staying at the hotel.(Description of Source: Islamabad The News Online in English -- Website of the widely read, influential English daily, member of the Jang
  publishing group. Neutral editorial policy, good coverage of domestic and international issues. Hardcopy circulation estimated at 55,000; URL: http://www.thenews.com.pk)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational Political,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Islamabad
Geographic Code: PAK,USA
Geographic Name: Pakistan,United States,Asia,Americas,South Asia,North Americas,PAKISTAN,INDIAN SUBCONTINENT,SOUTHERN ASIA,WESTERN ASIA,NORTH AMERICA,ASIA,AMERICAS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T23:50:25Z --------------------
Title: Highlights: Mexico Political Issues 1 Jun 10
Journal: Mexico -- OSC Summary
Text:
-- Mexico City La Jornada reports that Mexico's representative in the UN Security Council condemned an attack in international waters by Israeli armed forces, against a flotilla of civilian vessels carrying humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip. During an emergency session of the Security Council held hours after the attack, Mexican representative Claude Heller declared that attacking civilians and restricting the aid convoy's access to Gaza constituted international crimes, serious violations of the rules and principles of international humanitarian law, and an arbitrary violation of the freedom of legitimate maritime transport. Heller went on to express the Mexican Government's support for a thorough investigation of the events. (Mexico City La Jornada Online in Spanish -- Website of major left-leaning daily, critical of PAN and PRI administrations; URL:http://www.jornada.unam.mx http://www.jornada.unam.mx ) Mexico-US Relations: Border Governors' Conference at Risk Over Arizon
 a's SB1070-- Mexico City Milenio reports that an annual meeting of Mexican and US border governors is in doubt after the approval of Arizona's SB1070, which criminalized undocumented migration in the southwestern US state. Thus, Mexico's six border governors have expressed their unwillingness to attend the meeting if it is held in Arizona, in order not to legitimize the state legislation with their presence. Baja California Governor Jose Guadalupe Osuna Millan (National Action Party -- PAN) revealed in an interview that during a meeting among the border representatives, the California administration led by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger had offered its state as an alternative venue. Nevertheless, Osuna affirmed that Arizona Governor Jan Brewer had "declared that she would not attend if the venue was changed," and that Texas Governor Rick Perry had also threatened not to attend. Osuna Millan added that New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson "has already expressed his solidarity 
 with the governors of northern Mexico to change the venue." (Mexico City Milenio.com in Spanish -- Website of independent, centrist daily owned by Grupo Editorial Milenio; URL:http://www.milenio.com/ http://www.milenio.com/ ) UN Representative Sees Lack of Political Consensus To Tackle Criminal Infiltration of Elections-- Mexico City Excelsior reports that according to Magdy Martinez, representative in Mexico of the UN Development Program (UNDP), the hands of the Mexican State are tied in the fight against drug trafficking infiltration in electoral campaigns and candidacies. Martinez affirmed that "political parties have not achieved a clear consensus (to tackle this infiltration), which we have deplored, because we see that as a fundamental step." Referring to the recent arrest of Quintana Roo governor candidate 'Greg' Sanchez (Party of the Democratic Revolution -- PRD), the UN representative declared that "we see that one of the objectives of drug trafficking is to infiltr
 ate the ranks of democratic parties and to influence policies, by means of improper influence and the presence of people who are close or connected (to criminal organizations), or who have been coerced, and we obviously believe that some deliberation is called for in Mexico." Nevertheless, the UN representative added that "this deliberation will not move forward until a general consensus is reached among parties that this is a scourge that must be ended, and I believe that we are still one or two steps away from this consensus." (Mexico City EXonline in Spanish -- Website of major right-of-center daily Excelsior owned by Grupo Imagen; URLhttp://www.exonline.com.mx http://www.exonline.com.mx ) Segob Defends Implementation of Penal Ref orms-- Mexico City Reforma reports that according to a report presented to the Chamber of Deputies by the Interior Secretariat (Segob), the Technical Secretariat of the Coordination Council for the Implementation of the Penal Justice System (Set
 ec) is working "full speed ahead."  A Segob report to the legislative chamber affirmed that the body in charge of implementing penal reforms "already has an administrative structure, well-defined duties, fully qualified staff, a clear course in its work program, an agenda for liaison with the authorities, and a work agenda with the Coordination Council." (Mexico City REFORMA.com in Spanish -- Website of major center-right daily owned by Grupo Reforma; URL:http://www.reforma.com/ http://www.reforma.com/ ) PRI Deputies Propose Unified State Police Commands-- Mexico City Reforma reports that members of the PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party) benches in the Chamber of Deputies proposed constitutional reforms that would eliminate Mexico's municipal police forces and create 32 unified state police commands. The proposed reforms, which were submitted to the chamber's Constitutional Points Committee, also aimed to establish a new police model based on generating intelligence, a 
 more effective use of resources, greater training and professionalization, greater mobility of operations, and stronger ties with the citizenship.The following media were scanned and no file-worthy items were noted:(Mexico City EL UNIVERSAL.com.mx in Spanish -- Website of influential centrist daily; URLhttp://www.eluniversal.com.mx http://www.eluniversal.com.mx )Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: CrimeDomestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalMigration,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,INTERNATIONAL ISSUES,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: 
Geographic Code: MEX,ISR,USA
Geographic Name: Mexico,Israel,United States,Americas,Middle East,North Americas,NORTH AMERICA,MEXICO,USA,AMERICAS,MIDDLE EAST,ARIZONA,ISRAEL,LATIN AMERICA,PALESTINEIP
Region: Americas,Middle East






-------------------- Saturday August 22, 2009 T21:41:13Z --------------------
Title: Mexico: Statistics Institute Reports GDP Plummets by 10.3%, Worst Since 1981
Journal: El Financiero en linea
Text:
With this result, GDP had a cumulative drop of 9.2% in the first half of the year, its biggest annual decline for a similar period in almost three decades, according to the records of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEG).The activities most affected in the period from April through June were secondary activities, with an annual decline of 11.5%, an unprecedented annual drop and the fourth consecutive quarter with an annual decrease.Tertiary activities fell by 10.4%, resulting in three consecutive quarters of negative numbers as well as the largest decline since 1981.The figures show that manufacturing and commerce accounted for 6.6% of the drop in GDP, representing almost two-thirds of the total decrease.So, the share of the economy's decline represented by these two sectors shows that, on the one hand, the economic recession has dealt a heavy blow to the secondary sector, mainly manufacturing, and, on the other hand, the effects of the health emergency b
 ecause of the A (H1N1) virus were an additional factor that affected commerce in April and May. Negative String of FiguresIn the results in annual terms, we see that manufacturing and construction fell by 16.4% and 9.2%, respectively, marking four consecutive quarters with declines.For its part, mining broke a string of 10 consecutive quarters with annual declines, increasing by 0.6%.This upturn, INEG explained, was because non-petroleum mining activities grew by 23.3% in annual terms, offsetting the 3.7% drop in petroleum mining.In the tertiary sector's activities, commerce fell by 20%, its third consecutive annual decline and its greatest drop for a quarter since records have been kept.The 13.7% drop in transportation and communication is notable and accounted for 1% of the total decline in GDP.For their part, primary activities grew by 1.1% in real terms, their sixth consecutive quarter with annual increases.  That did not offset the economic decline, however, since those
  activities only make up 4.5% of the economy.The seasonally adjusted figures show that the economy declined by 1.1% compared to the previous month, its smallest quarterly drop in the last three periods, although it decreased by 9.7% in annual terms, its greatest decline since 1981.Ricardo Aguilar Abe, an economist with Invex Grupo Financiero, explained that after the sharp drop in the second quarter, a moderate contraction is expected in the third quarter.This is because Mexican industry has experienced a recovery due to the increase in automobile production in the United States in recent months.Nevertheless, there are still strong downside risks associated with the consumption of goods and services, due to the economy's inability to create jobs, he said.(Description of Source: Mexico City El Financiero en linea in Spanish -- Website of major national business and financial daily; URL http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyright
 ed by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic EconomicEnergyInternational Economic,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT,ECONOMIC STATISTICSIP
City: Mexico City
Geographic Code: MEX,USA
Geographic Name: Mexico,United States,Americas,North Americas,NORTH AMERICA,LATIN AMERICA,AMERICAS,MEXICOIP
Region: Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T18:07:10Z --------------------
Title: RSA: FIFA Secretary General Says Safety At US-England Game 'a Fact'
Journal: SAPA
Text:
(Description of Source: Johannesburg SAPA in English -- Cooperative, nonprofit national news agency, South African Press Association; URL: http://www.sapa.org.za)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalTerrorism
City: Johannesburg
Geographic Code: ZAF,GBR,USA
Geographic Name: South Africa,United Kingdom,United States,Africa,Europe,Americas,Southern Africa,North Europe,North Americas,UNITED KINGDOM,AFRICA,EUROPE,WESTERN EUROPE,SOUTH AFRICA,SOUTHERN AFRICAIP
Region: Africa,Europe,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T12:13:23Z --------------------
Title: Report by Loyiso Langeni: "Elders Worried about Renewed Xenophobic Attacks"
Journal: Business Day Online
Text:
(Description of Source: Johannesburg Business Day Online in English -- Website of South Africa's only business-focused daily, which carries business, political, and general news. It is widely read by decisionmakers and targets a "higher-income and better-educated consumer" and attempts to attract "aspiring and emerging business." Its editorials and commentaries are generally critical of government policies; URL: http://www.bday.co.za/)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: CrimeDomestic PoliticalHuman RightsLeader,SOCIAL ISSUES,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONSIP
City: Johannesburg
Geographic Code: ZAF,IRL,USA
Geographic Name: South Africa,Ireland,United States,Africa,Europe,Americas,Southern Africa,North Europe,North Americas,AFRICA,SOUTH AFRICA,SOUTHERN AFRICAIP
Region: Africa,Europe,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T10:08:20Z --------------------
Title: RSA: Tight Security at International Airport as US World Cup Team Arrives
Journal: The Star Online
Text:
(Description of Source: Johannesburg The Star Online in English -- Website of the daily described as the "flagship" publication of Independent Newspapers, it is one of South Africa's most popular dailies and carries credible, balanced reporting and commentaries from a wide range of authors. Its editorials tend to be critical of the government. URL: http://www.thestar.co.za/)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational Political,LEGALIP
City: Johannesburg
Geographic Code: ZAF,USA
Geographic Name: South Africa,United States,Africa,Americas,Southern Africa,North Americas,SOUTHERN AFRICA,AFRICA,SOUTH AFRICAIP
Region: Africa,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T12:03:19Z --------------------
Title: Report by Jung Sung-ki: "Overseas Korean War Memorations Start"
Journal: The Korea Times Online
Text:
(Description of Source: Seoul The Korea Times Online in English -- Website of The Korea Times, an independent and moderate English-language daily published by its sister daily Hanguk Ilbo from which it often draws articles and translates into English for publication; URL: http://www.koreatimes.co.kr)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: MilitaryInternational Political
City: Seoul
Geographic Code: KOR,NLD,USA,GBR
Geographic Name: South Korea,Netherlands,United States,United Kingdom,Asia,Europe,Americas,East Asia,North Europe,North Americas,SOUTH KOREA,EUROPE,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,WESTERN EUROPE,EASTERN ASIA,ASIA,AMERICAS,NETHERLANDS,USAIP
Region: Asia,Europe,Americas






-------------------- Friday May 14, 2010 T13:11:02Z --------------------
Title: Highlights: Colombia Political-Economic Issues 13-14 May 10
Journal: Colombia -- OSC Summary
Text:
PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN: New Poll Shows Santos Ahead of Mockus-- Bogota El Espectador reports that 38% of respondents in the latest CM&amp; poll chose Juan Manuel Santos as their pick for president.When asked who they would vote for if the election were the following day, 38% said Santos, 36% said Antanas Mockus, and 9% said Noemi Sanin.The result indicates that the Mockus candidacy is no longer rising at previous rates.In fact, when asked about a runoff election, those polled were equally divided between Santos and Mockus (47%).Previously, Mockus had consistently been ahead in that scenario. (Bogota elespectador.com in Spanish -- Website of right-leaning daily owned by Bavaria Group and Santodomingo family; URL:http://www.elespectador.com/ http://www.elespectador.com ) (OSC will translate a similar item) Registrar Replaces 219,000 Polling-site Officials-- Medellin El Colombiano reports on 13 May that nearly half of the voting-site officials in the upcoming presidential election wi
 ll be different than the ones that manned the polling locations in the March congressional elections.Registrar General Carlos Ariel Sanchez explained that people presenting identification inconsistencies were removed from the pool of citizens eligible to be picked to serve at a polling site.As a result, new people will be called to serve during the election, particularly in the departments of Valle del Cauca, Antioquia, Atlantico, and Magdalena.  (Medellin El Colombiano.com in Spanish -- Website of pro-Conservative Party, leading Medellin daily; URL:http://www.elcolombiano.com/ http://www.elcolombiano.com )POLITICAL ISSUES: Uribe Says Extradition Is More Than Judicial Issue-- Bogota Office of the President reports on 13 May that President Alvaro Uribe has defended extradition as a matter that ought to be jointly examined by the Judicial and Executive Branches.During a radio interview, Uribe insisted that extradition was partly an issue of public order and international relat
 ions, which are the domain of the Executive. "Extradition is not only a judicial matter." (Bogota Office of the President in Spanish - Official website of the Colombian Presidency; URL:http://web.presidencia.gov.co/ http://web.presidencia.gov.co/ ) Pretelt Charged Over 'Yidis-politics' Scandal, Renounces Diplomatic Post-- Bogota El Espectador reports on 13 May that the Attorney General's Office has brought former Interior minister Sabas Pretelt up on charges of bribery.Following the announcement by the Attorney General, Pretelt announced that he was stepping down from his post as ambassador to Italy.He is accused of offering bribes to members of Congress (Yidis Medina being the most publicized case) back in 2006 when an important reelection bill was up for debate.That reform was ultimately passed and allowed Uribe to seek and win a second term in office. New Nominee for Attorney General Post Could Complicate Election-- Cali El Pais reports on 14 May that the nomination of Jo
 rge Anibal Gomez as a candidate could add new complications to the process for selecting a new Attorney General.The withdrawal of the questioned candidacy of Camilo Ospina and the naming of Gomez (a former Court president) to replace him on the short list of candidates gave the impression that the Supreme Court could move quickly forward with the election.This may not be the case, however, since as many as 7 of the 22 justices sitting on the Court may disqualify themselves from voting, citing past connections to Gomez that could be perceived as motive for bias.That situation could prevent any of the candidates from receiving the necessary 16 votes.  (Cali El Pais in Spanish -- Website of Pro-Conservative Party daily; URL:http://www.elpais.com.co/ http://www.elpais.com.co ) New Candidate for Attorney General Post Says Accusatorial Justice 'Near Collapse'-- Bogota El Tiempo reports on 14 May that the person nominated to replace Camilo Ospina on the short list of candidates to 
 become Attorney General, Jorge Anibal Gomez, has been quick to make his opinions known on certain issues relating to the judicial system in Colombia.According to Gomez, the Accusatorial Justice System that Colombia is in the process of implementing is "on the verge of collapsing" because there are not enough investigators to adequately prepare the cases that go to trial. (Bogota eltiempo.com in Spanish -- Website of pro-Liberal Party, most influential newspaper published by Casa Editorial El Tiempo with the largest circulation in Colombia; URL:http://www.eltiempo.com/ http://www.eltiempo.com ) Colombia To Seek Seat on UN Security Council-- Bogota El Espectador reports on 13 May that Colombia is actively seeking a seat on the UN Security Council during the 2011-12 period.According to government insiders, Foreign Minister Jaime Bermudez is currently in New York promoting that possibility. Piedad Cordoba Injured in Car Accident in Madrid-- Bogota El Espectador reports on 13 May
  that Colombian Senator Piedad has been injured in a car accident in Madrid.While in the middle of a swing through Europe to drum up support for peace and humanitarian efforts in Colombia, the taxi in which Cordoba was riding was rear-ended.Through Twitter, she indicated that she could not rule out the possibility that the accident was part of an attempt to sideline her, but she insisted: "It will take a lot more to stop us."Cordoba complains of headaches and various x-rays were taken, but she said that she hoped to be able to continue with her "peace" tour across Europe. Venezuela Deports 48 Colombians-- Bogota El Tiempo reports on 13 May that Venezuelan authorities have deported 48 Colombians who had crossed the border illegally, including two individuals that were among several Colombians arrested in Barinitas at the end of March on espionage charges.Those deported arrived on a bus to the DAS (Administrative Department of Security) in Cucuta accompanied by 6 Venezuelan of
 ficers.All were subjected to identification and background checks before being released.ECONOMIC ISSUES: Dairy Farmers Call for Renegotiation of FTA With EU-- Cali El Pais reports on 14 May that cattle ranchers in Colombia have called upon the national government to renegotiate aspects of the free-trade agreement with the European Union that is slated for signing this coming week in Madrid.The president of the Ranchers Federation (Fedegan), Jose Felix Lafaurie, said that the livelihood of 400,000 families was at stake.He explained that Colombian dairy farmers were small producers that would be very vulnerable with an FTA in its current form. Conservatives To Vote Against Passage of FTA With EU-- Bogota El Espectador reports on 13 May that Conservative spokesperson Carlos Ramiro Chavarro has announced that his party will not support the free-trade agreement with the European Union in its current form.He explained that the dairy chapter in its current rendering would be catast
 rophic for Colombian farmers because European milk production was subsidized.Chavarro insisted: "What we do not want is a situation wherein a cow in Europe is better off than a campesino in Colombia."The party called upon the Uribe government not to sign the agreement under the current conditions. Plata Says Exports Reaching New Markets-- Bogota Portafolio reports on 14 May that Colombian exports are starting to find their way to new markets.According to Trade Minister Luis Guillermo Plata, Peru and Central America and the Caribbean are areas that have shown significant export growth.He noted that exports to Peru increased by over 35% in the first quarter and said that the 32.8% increase in exports to Ecuador were a visible result of the improvement in diplomatic relations.Exports to Central America and the Caribbean were up by 9.61%. (Bogota Portafolio.com.co in Spanish -- Website of economic and business newspaper; URL:http://www.portafolio.com.co/ http://www.portafolio.co
 m.co )COMMENTARY: El Colombiano Editorial Welcomes Return of Peace Corps-- El Colombiano calls the return of the Peace Corps to Colombia "good news" because it is an opportunity to share knowledge with some of the most vulnerable communities in the country.It adds that "the fact that they are coming back is confirmation of the undeniable progress made in Colombia in the fight against drug trafficking and terrorism over the past 5 years." El Tiempo Editorial Calls FTA With EU 'Vital'-- El Tiempo notes that Colombia is set to sign a free-trade agreement with the European Union next week.It acknowledges that some sectors of the economy will be particularly vulnerable as a result of the agreement, but considers that safeguards have been included in the FTA and insists that "this agreement with the European Union must not be placed in jeopardy because of the protectionist demands of minority groups."The editorial points to the broad support of the business sector that the agreeme
 nt enjoys and offers the following wish: "Hopefully, there will not be a repeat of the big mistake made in the negotiation of an FTA with the United States...."The following media were scanned and no file-worthy items were selected:(Bogota Semana.com in Spanish -- Website of private, most influential weekly news magazine; URL:http://www.semana.com/ http://www.semana.com )(Bogota larepublica.com.co in Spanish -- Website of business and financial newspaper; URL:http://www.larepublica.com.co/ http://www.larepublica.com.co )(Bogota Ministry of National Defense of the Republic of Colombia in Spanish -- Official website of the Colombian Ministry of National Defense; URL:http://www.mindefensa.gov.co/ http://www.mindefensa.gov.co )Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational EconomicInternational Political,LEGAL,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENT,EUROPEAN UNION,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS,FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTIP
City: 
Geographic Code: COL,VEN,USA
Geographic Name: Colombia,Venezuela,United States,Americas,South Americas,North Americas,COLOMBIA,CENTRAL AMERICA,AMERICAS,USA,ECUADOR,EUROPE,SOUTH AMERICA,VENEZUELA,PERU,NORTH AMERICA,LATIN AMERICAIP
Region: Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T07:33:14Z --------------------
Title: Netanyahu Asks Obama, Cameron To Prevent Anti-Israel UNSC Resolution
Journal: Israel -- OSC Summary
Text:
Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: LeaderInternational Political,GOVERNMENTIP
City: 
Geographic Code: ISR,GBR,USA
Geographic Name: Israel,United Kingdom,United States,Middle East,Europe,Americas,North Europe,North Americas,MEDITERRANEAN,MIDDLE EAST,NORTH AMERICA,AMERICAS,ISRAEL,USAIP
Region: Middle East,Europe,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T13:17:52Z --------------------
Title: For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
Journal: Panama -- OSC Summary
Text:
The following is a selection of press highlights from the Panamanian media on 1 Jun: Security and Law Enforcement News US Changes Drug Support Program, Panama Affected- Panama City La Estrella reports that just when Panama was preparing to bolster air and maritime security with the purchase of 12 Bell helicopters and two airplanes, the Obama administration has changed its strategy with regard to providing resources for "Plan Merida." The US Government has announced that it will no longer finance the purchase of equipment and weapons, and that it will focus on the war on corruption among government employees. Assistant Secretary Arturo Valenzuela told EFE that Washington wants to intensify cooperation in Central America against drug trafficking and organized crime, but he failed to disclose the strategy that will be employed. Government Minister Roxana Mendez said that Panama has sufficient economic resources to deal with a security strategy, US assistance is value-added, and 
 Panama does not depend on it. (Panama City La Estrella Online in Spanish -- Privately owned independent-centrist daily; URL:http://www.laestrella.com.pa/ http://www.laestrella.com.pa ) Panama Remains on Drug Traffickers' Route- Panama City La Estrella reports that no one has yet been arrested for the shipment of 600 kg of cocaine seized on 30 May. An investigation is underway to determine who is responsible for the trafficking of drugs through the Isla Grande tourism center in Colon. On 30 May, members of the National Border Service detained the boat "La Costenita," but its five crew members escaped. According to the authorities, each kg of the cocaine seized would be worth $4,000 in Panama. Political News President Martinelli Confirms Labor Code Reforms- Panama City La Estrella reports that a few days before his first year in office, President Martinelli appeared on the TVN (channel 2) morning newscast to discuss a broad range of issues - security, the popular consultations
  bill, the opposition, cabinet changes, and more, but the greatest impact was made by his comments regarding the Labor Code reforms. He said that the culture of opposition to change must end, and reiterated that overtime pay on Sundays and days off will not be eliminated.  The labor unions were quick to react: Genaro Lopez from the construction union Suntracs said that the government wants to change the Code for its own benefit. He said that talks are already underway with the workers, who may stage strikes and demonstrations to defend their labor-related achievements. M. Doens Says Government Offering Millions to PRD Members To Switch to CD- Panama City La Estrella reports that Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) Secretary General Mitchell Doens says that President Martinelli is using proxies to offer millions to fellow PRD members so that they will join his party Democratic Change (CD). He is trying to bring the PRD to its knees, he said. Doens added that as long as he is
  at the helm, the Executive will not take over his party. He made these remarks after President Martinelli said in Veraguas that the PRD will cease to exist in 2014.Economic News Government To Issue $20 Million in Treasury Notes- Panama City La Estrella reports that the Economy Ministry will place $20 million in Treasury Notes on the stock market on 10 June. This will be its fifth auction of notes. The ministry's Public Credit Director Mahesh Khemlani said that this issue is part of the monthly program to follow up on the strategic planning of the debt. The idea, he said, is to bolster the local stock market and generate more investment opportunities. FTAs Prompt Disagreements Between Trade Unions- Panama City La Estrella reports that the meager increase in P anamanian exports to the countries with which Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) have been signed, have prompted differences between two local trade unions. The Association of Industrialists (SIP) maintains that exports in th
 e region have not increased in a noteworthy manner, while the Chamber of Commerce says that an FTA should be viewed from various angles - exports are not everything. The SIP feels that jobs are generated by exports, and that only the FTAs with Taiwan and Honduras have yielded good results for the country. The SIP also believes that the government should focus on negotiating with countries that complement Panama. To date, Panama has signed FTAs with Chile, China-Taiwan, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Sacyr Shares Up by 6%-- Panama City La Estrella reports that Sacyr, the Spanish construction firm that heads the United for the Canal Group that is building the third set of locks, had a good day on the Spanish stock market on 31 May when its shares increased by 6%. This turn of events resulted from confirmation that Sacyr achieved an agreement with financial institutions regarding the "main" aspects of a debt consolidation plan for its real estate a
 ffiliate Vallehermoso. In March, Sacyr expressed confidence in that Vallehermoso's debt will be reduced as more homes are delivered.Other NewsNo file worthy items were noted.The following media were scanned and no file worthy items were noted:(Panama City prensa.com in Spanish -- Website of most widely circulated daily, pro-business; URL:http://www.prensa.com/ http://www.prensa.com/ )(Panama City Panama America Online in Spanish -- Right-of-center, business-oriented daily owned by Grupo Editorial Epasa Publishing House. URL:http://www.pa-digital.com.pa/ http://www.pa-digital.com.pa/ )(Panama City Presidency of the Republic of Panama Online in Spanish -- Official website of the Presidency of the Republic of Panama; URL:http://www.presidencia.gob.pa/ http://www.presidencia.gob.pa )(Panama City Ministry of Foreign Relations Online in Spanish -- Official website of the Panamanian Foreign Relations Ministry; URL:http://www.mire.gob.pa/ http://www.mire.gob.pa/ )(Panama City Martes
  Financiero Online in Spanish -- Online version of financial supplement of top-circulation, pro-business daily La Prensa; comes out on Tuesdays; URL:http://www.martesfinanciero.com/ http://www.martesfinanciero.com ) (scanned on Tuesdays)Attachments:pa review.mhtMaterial in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic EconomicDomestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalNarcotics,SOCIAL ISSUES,LEGAL,GOVERNMENTIP
City: 
Geographic Code: PAN,USA
Geographic Name: Panama,United States,Americas,Central Americas,North Americas,COSTA RICA,TAIWAN,NORTH AMERICA,FAR EAST,CENTRAL AMERICA,EASTERN ASIA,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,PANAMA,HONDURAS,LATIN AMERICAIP
Region: Americas






-------------------- Wednesday January 27, 2010 T09:53:39Z --------------------
Title: Commentary by Bogdan Munteanu: "Obama Dream Is Turning Into Nightmare"
Journal: Gandul.info
Text:
The Americans did not expect magic hat-tricks, but the confidence that Obama will really put things on the track of "change."  Instead of this conviction, the President has come to lead a country in which the reforms are "frozen" by long-lasting partisan disputes and the official agenda is far from the citizens' immediate needs.  Things are going on in the same way as during the time of his predecessor.  However, no one expected any change from Bush in recent years or that he might understand anything of the Americans' needs, beyond his obsessions for the global anti-missile shield, destroying the Al-Qa'ida terrorists, and spreading democracy using either "orange revolutions" (in Eastern Europe) or bombs (in Iraq and Afghanistan).Today, although the fanatical Democrats are refusing to accept it, an increasing number of Americans feel that neither the healthcare reform nor Obama's fights (at the declarative level) against the "fat cats" at the top of the financial system and t
 he lobbyists, among whom some have found shelter in his own administration, have anything to do with their real problems.  The Americans are all the less interested in the United States joining the global warming ideology, which "censures" carbon dioxide levels in order to impose emission ceilings and enable the setting up of a worldwide stock exchange on emission rights that have not been consumed by companies or states.What interests the Americans is the lack of direction in economy, which has been confirmed during the special elections for Massachusetts senator.  A recent Rasmussen report shows that no less than 72 percent of the inhabitants of the state in question believe that the country is not moving to a good direction and another 10 percent are not sure what to say about it.  According to a CNN poll, 48 percent of Americans believe that it is a "bad" thing that the Democrat Party has the majority in the Congress and 45 percent consider it a "good" thing.  The Republ
 icans' scores are no better, though.  The two parties are equally appreciated by the public.  They are equally scorned, as well, since 48 percent of respondents express their dissatisfaction with both organizations.If the Democrats, who even risk losing the Illinois senator position (filled by Obama until 2008), are penalized, the Republicans have no reason to rejoice, but the President has all the reasons to worry.  He is thus warned that the direction he has imposed is not to the Americans' liking.  For increasingly more citizens, the minimum of 29.1 weeks of unemployment between two jobs is turning into a nightmare.  They expect Obama, who needed a scholarship to pursue his education and whose family received food stamps, to understand that what interests them the most represent the United States' real and immediate priorities.(Description of Source: Bucharest Gandul.info in Romanian -- Website of independent centrist daily, generally critical of the political establishme
 nt across the board; URL: http://www.gandul.info/)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalLeader,GOVERNMENT,POLITICAL AND PUBLIC AFFAIRSIP
City: Bucharest
Geographic Code: USA
Geographic Name: United States,Americas,North Americas,EUROPE,ROMANIA,NORTH AMERICA,AMERICAS,USA,EASTERN EUROPEIP
Region: Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T18:33:04Z --------------------
Title: Tanzania: UN Court Rapped for Silence Over Jailed US Lawyer
Journal: AFP (World Service)
Text:
(Description of Source: Paris AFP (World Service) in English -- world news service of the independent French news agency Agence France Presse)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Human RightsInternational Political,LEGAL,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,INTERNATIONAL ISSUESIP
City: Paris
Geographic Code: RWA,TZA,USA
Geographic Name: Rwanda,Tanzania,United States,Africa,Americas,Central Africa,East Africa,North Americas,TANZANIA,AFRICA,EAST AFRICA,RWANDAIP
Region: Africa,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T10:15:00Z --------------------
Title: Rwanda: Jailed US lawyer hospitalised
Journal: Radio France Internationale
Text:
An American lawyer jailed in Rwanda on accusation of denying the 1994 genocide was yesterday hospitalized with high blood pressure, Radio France Internationale reported on 1 June.Mr Peter Erlinder was arrested last week when he arrived in Rwanda to represent the opposition politician, Victoire Ingabire, who faces charges of promoting genocidal ideology.(Description of Source: Paris Radio France Internationale in French -- government-owned radio, under the management of the Ministry of Culture, aimed at an international audience)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalHuman RightsUrgent
City: Paris
Geographic Code: FRA,RWA,USA
Geographic Name: France,Rwanda,United States,Europe,Africa,Americas,South Europe,Central Africa,North Americas,FRANCE,AFRICA,MEDITERRANEAN,EUROPE,EAST AFRICA,WESTERN EUROPE,RWANDAIP
Region: Europe,Africa,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T08:34:03Z --------------------
Title: "UN SECURITY COUNCIL CONDEMNS ISREALI INTERVENTION TO GAZA FLOTILLA" -- AA headline
Journal: Anatolia
Text:
The UN presidential statement which was adopted following a 12-hour meeting of the Security Council said UN deeply regretted the loss of lives and injuries during the Israeli military intervention. Turkey pressed real hard for the adoption of a statement condemning the attack.The statement which was read out by Claude Heller, the permanent representative of the Security Council's rotating president Mexico, urged immediate release of the ships and civilians held by Israel.The statement also urged Israel to return the dead bodies and the wounded to their countries and allow the ships to carry their cargo of humanitarian aid to Gaza.The Security Council referred to Secretary General Ban Ki Moon's remarks on the need for a full investigation and in its statement called for an impartial and transparent investigation into the incident.The statement also referred to the resolutions 1850 and 1860 of the Security Council and underlined the need for free movement of goods and people to
  and from Gaza. It said humanitarian aid should be able to freely flow in to Gaza and distributed there without any obstacles.It said the only lasting solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict could be reached through negotiations between parties, emphasizing that only a solution based on existence of two states could bring peace to the region.Turkey's intense diplomatic efforts have been effective in the adoption of the resolution.Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu who proceeded to Washington, D.C. following his speech in the Security Council, masterminded Turkey's efforts in the Security Council, over the phone with Turkey's permanent representative to the UN Ertugrul Apakan.Diplomatic sources which spoke on condition of anonymity pointed out that it was remarkable for the UN Security Council to reach an agreement on a statement over such a delicate issue in less than 24 hours. They said it was the toughest statement on Israel yet adopted by UN.The same sources sa
 id the members of the UN Security Council expressed that they were ready to give consent to a statement that was agreeable to Turkey. Following this statement the negotiations took place mostly between Turkey and the U.S..Israeli navy forces stormed Monday a convoy of aid ships of Humanitarian Relief Foundation (IHH) carrying humanitarian aid for Gaza, killing at least 9 people and injuring around 30 others.(Description of Source: Ankara Anatolia in English -- Semi-official news agency; independent in content)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalUrgent,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONSIP
City: Ankara
Geographic Code: ISR,TUR,USA
Geographic Name: Israel,Turkey,United States,Middle East,Europe,Americas,South Europe,North Americas,MEDITERRANEAN,TURKEY,NORTH AMERICA,WESTERN ASIA,NEW YORK,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,EUROPE,MIDDLE EAST,ISRAEL,PALESTINEIP
Region: Middle East,Europe,Americas






-------------------- Tuesday June 1, 2010 T07:06:27Z --------------------
Title: "9 DEAD &amp; MANY OTHERS INJURED IN ISRAEL'S ATTACK ON SHIPS, TURKISH FM" -- AA headline
Journal: Anatolia
Text:
(Description of Source: Ankara Anatolia in English -- Semi-official news agency; independent in content)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: International PoliticalLeaderMilitaryUrgent,INTERNATIONAL ISSUES,ORGANIZATIONS AND INSTITUTIONS,GOVERNMENTIP
City: Ankara
Geographic Code: ISR,TUR,USA
Geographic Name: Israel,Turkey,United States,Middle East,Europe,Americas,South Europe,North Americas,MEDITERRANEAN,TURKEY,NORTH AMERICA,WESTERN ASIA,NEW YORK,USA,AMERICAS,ASIA,EUROPE,DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA,MIDDLE EAST,ISRAEL,PALESTINEIP
Region: Middle East,Europe,Americas






-------------------- Monday May 3, 2010 T01:37:22Z --------------------
Title: Al-Shabaab official accuses US firm of being behind explosion in Somali capital
Journal: Holy Koran Radio
Text:
Somali capitalA senior official of the Somali radical Islamist group Al-Shabab, Shaykh Fu'ad Muhammad Khalaf aka Shongolo, who was reported to have been injured in yesterday's explosions at a Mosque in Mogadishu has accused the US Black Water Organization of being behind the blast.Speaking to Holy Koran Radio in Mogadishu, he said the organization had a base in Mogadishu. He also accused the Somali Transitional Federal Government of abetting the US organization in the act.The explosion at Abdulla-Shideye Mosque in Mogadishu yesterday killed up to 45 people.The Transitional Federal Government condemned the act.(Description of Source: Mogadishu Holy Koran Radio in Somali -- FM station that indentifies itself as "the voice of Ahlu Sunnah Waljama, Mogadishu," a Sunni Islamic organization. Station includes regular newscasts in its programming, but generally steers clear of controversial subjects. Station is also known as IQK)Material in the World News Connection is generally copyr
 ighted by the source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.
Descriptor: Domestic PoliticalInternational PoliticalTerrorism,SOCIAL ISSUESIP
City: Mogadishu
Geographic Code: SOM,USA
Geographic Name: Somalia,United States,Africa,Americas,East Africa,North Americas,AFRICA,ARAB STATES,EAST AFRICA,SOMALIAIP
Region: Africa,Americas
</description>
    <date>2010-06-03 20:03:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
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  <doc>
    <id>791684</id>
    <title>BBC Monitoring Alert - IRAN
</title>
    <description>    Iran TV releases footage of "kidnapped" researcher State-run Iranian TV  
    Channel two (IRTV1) in its 1600 gmt bulletin on 7 June broadcast a video 
    report on Shahram Amiri, an Iranian researcher, who had disappeared      
    about a year ago in Saudi Arabia's Medina and Iran says that in fact he  
    had been kidnapped.                                                      
                                                                             
    The news reader said: "The Islamic Republic of Iran announced recently   
    that it has documents and proofs indicating that Shahram Amiri had been  
    kidnapped through an operation by the American intelligence forces and   
    transferred to America. A few days ago a video clip was received from    
    Shahram Amiri by the Iranian intelligence body which reveals the truth." 
                                                                             
    Video showed Shahram Amiri in a room with headphones on while recording  
    his message on 5 April 2010. He introduced himself and said: "I'm        
    Shahram Amiri, an expert and researcher of Malek Ashtar University of    
    Technology. At the moment I'm in Tucsan, a city in America's Arizona. I  
    was kidnapped in a joint operation by the American intelligence, CIA's   
    terror and kidnap teams and Saudi's Istikhbarat on 13 Khordad 1388 [3    
    June 2009] from Medina. They took me to a house located somewhere that I 
    didn't know. They gave me an anaesthetic injection. When I became        
    conscious I was in a big [voice interrupted] towards America During the  
    eight months that I was kept in America, I was subject to the most       
    severe tortures and psychological pressures by the American intelligence 
    investigation groups. And the main aim behind these investigation teams  
    and the pressure imposed on me was to make me take part in an interview  
    conducted by an American media source and claim that I was! an important 
    figure in Iran's nuclear programme and I had sought asylum in America at 
    my own will. And [to say] while seeking asylum I took some very          
    important documents and a laptop with classified information on Iran's   
    military nuclear programme in it to America from my country The main aim 
    from this was to impose political pressure on the Islamic Republic of    
    Iran and in fact condemning [Iran] and proving lies that America has     
    been constantly saying against the Islamic Republic of Iran."            
                                                                             
    He urged human rights bodies and organizations for their support and to  
    help him to go back to Iran.                                             
                                                                             
    The news reader said the video had reached the Iran "through special     
    means".                                                                  
                                                                             
    Source: Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 2, Tehran, in     
    Persian 1600 gmt 7 Jun 10                                                
                                                                             
    BBC Mon alert ME1 MEPol sr                                               

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2010
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    <date>2010-06-07 16:51:05</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
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  <doc>
    <id>806515</id>
    <title>BBC Monitoring Alert - INDIA
</title>
    <description>    Major quake hits islands on India's east coast; no casualties reported   
                                                                             
    Text of report by Indian news agency PTI                                 
                                                                             
    Port Blair/Chennai, 13 June: A major earthquake with a magnitude of 7.8  
    on the Richter scale shook Andaman and Nicobar Islands [on India's       
    eastern coast] early Sunday [13 June], triggering a tsunami alert which  
    was later withdrawn.                                                     
                                                                             
    No casualties have been reported due to the quake, effects of which were 
    also felt in Chennai city in south India and some other coastal areas.   
                                                                             
    The Central Seismological Observatory Centre, Shillong, said the quake   
    took place at around 12.57 a.m. at a spot off the west coast of Nicobar  
    Island in the Indian Ocean.                                              
                                                                             
    The epicentre of the quake was located at latitude 7.9 degree north and  
    longitude 91.9 degree east, the observatory said.                        
                                                                             
    Deputy Commissioner of Nicobar district T Srikanth said a tsunami watch  
    alert was issued after the major earthquake jolted the island. "We had   
    given a tsunami watch alert for about one and a half hours. We have      
    revoked it. The situation is normal and it is being monitored," he said. 
                                                                             
    No loss of life or damage to property was reported, Srikanth said.       
                                                                             
    The Hawaii-based Pacific Tsunami Warning Center had issued a warning for 
    the entire Indian Ocean region which later was downgraded to a warning   
    for India and was subsequently called off.                               
                                                                             
    "Sea level readings indicate that a significant tsunami was not          
    generated," the centre said in a bulletin.                               
                                                                             
    Moderate tremors were also felt in several parts of Chennai and its      
    suburbs for a few seconds.                                               
                                                                             
    However, no casualty or damage to property were reported, police said.   
                                                                             
    People in panic rushed out of their houses at Gopalapuram, Kodambakkam,  
    Porur, Thiruvanmiyur, Anna Nagar and several other places following the  
    tremor, they said.                                                       
                                                                             
    Source: PTI news agency, New Delhi, in English 0750gmt 13 Jun 10         
                                                                             
    BBC Mon SA1 SAsPol ub                                                    

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2010
</description>
    <date>2010-06-13 10:41:05</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-13 09:00:00</releasedate>
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  <doc>
    <id>813629</id>
    <title>USA/UNITED STATES/AMERICAS
</title>
    <description>   Table of Contents for United States

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   1) Made in China Is Taking on a New, More Formidable Shape
   Made in China Is Taking on a New, More Formidable Shape -- The Daily Star
   Headline
   2) Bangladeshi Group Issues Statement on US, ROK Authorities' 'Anti-DPRK
   Moves'
   KCNA headline: "U.S. And S. Korean Authorities' Anti-dprk Moves Flayed"
   3) Brazil Crime and Narcotics Issues 14 Jun 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   4) Pakistan Article Says New Sanctions Against Iran Expose UNs Dubious
   Role
   Article by Jalees Hazir: Global foul play
   5) Iran Protests Over Mexico's UN Vote for Sanctions
   Report by Silvia Otero: "Iran Protests Mexico's Vote for Sanctions"
   6) Article Calls For Collective Efforts To Counter US-Western Mindset
   Art icle by Dr Haider Mehdi: Conflict management
   7) Lebanese Press 14 Jun 10
   The following lists selected items from the Lebanese press on 14 June. To
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
   8) Pan-Arab Editor: Sanctions 'Will Hurt' Iranian Regime, 'May' Benefit
   Reformists
   Commentary by Raghidah Dirgham: "Will the Sanctions against Iran Succeed
   in Weakening the Regime?"
   9) Syrian Press 14 Jun 10
   The following lists selected items from the Syrian press on 14 June. To
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
   10) Iraqi Press 14 June 10
   The following lists selected items from the Iraqi press on 14 June. To
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
   11) Turkish Press 14 Jun 10
   The following lists selected items from the Turkish press on 14 Jun; to
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735, or fax (703) 613-5735. For Islamist press highlights, see
   GMP20100614006001.
   12) Editorial Asks Govt To Stop Supporting So-Called War on Terror
   Editorial: Zardari at SCO summit
   13) Taleban execute man in Afghan south accused of spying
   14) Pakistan Press Nawa-e-Waqt 14 Jun 10
   To request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
   15) Malaysian, Singapore Chinese Press 12-14 Jun 10
   The following is a selection of editorials, commentaries, and reports from
   Malaysian and Singapore Chinese press on 12-14 June
   16) Pakistan Daily Flays UK Report Claiming ISI Pulling Strings of
   Afghan Taliban
   Editorial: Pak Targeted Again
   17) Polish Editorial Dubs Tusk's Call for Afghan Withdrawal Political
   'Opportunism'
   Editorial by Piotr Semka: "Electoral Afghanistan"
   18) Afghan Police Issues 16-31 May 2010
   The following OSC Summary provides a summary of monitored media coverage
   on Afghan police issues in and related to Afghanistan during the period
   16-31 May 2010; for assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at
   1-800-205-8615 or oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   19) Taleban commander claim inflicting casualties on foreign forces in
   Afghan east
   20) Taleban claim inflicting casualties on Afghan, foreign forces in
   Afghan east
   21) Abbas, Fatah Hold Contacts With HAMAS, Urge Reconciliation To End Gaza
   Siege
   Report by Ali al-Salih: "Al-Ahmad to Al-Sharq al-Awsat: 'I Am Personally
   Holding Contacts With HAMAS Leaders in Gaza, West Bank'; Abu-Mazin
   Receives in Amman MP Al-Khudari, Head of Committee Against Sie ge in Gaza
   Strip, Announces Dispatch of Delegation"
   22) Argentina Political and Economic Issues 12-14 Jun 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   23) Egyptian Press 14 Jun 10
   The following lists selected items from the Egyptian press on 14 June. To
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
   24) UK Arabic Press 14 Jun 10
   25) HAMAS Media 10-11 Jun 10
   Corrected version: correcting mistake in Al-Batsh's rank in text; The
   following lists the leading items featured by HAMAS-affiliated media on
   10-11 Jun. For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at
   1-800-205-8615 or oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   26) News Roundup 11-14 Jun
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov
   27) Commentary Suggests Greece Use Turkish-Israeli Rift For Foreign Policy
   Gains
   Commentary by ELIAMEP Think Tank Director Thanos P. Dokos: "Opinion: Will
   It Be An Opportunity for Greece?"
   28) Pakistan Author Urges Consensus of UN Members for Security Council
   Enlargement
   Article by Asif Ezdi: Reforming the UN Security Council
   29) DPRK Party Organ Denounces IAEA Director General's Remarks on DPRK
   Nuclear Issue
   Commentary by reporter Kim Chong-son: "Spiritless Remarks of an Ignorant
   Man"; The author's title in the byline provided by KPM may be different
   from that which appears in hard copy
   30) DPRK Central Radio Program Review for 14 Jun 10
   Following is a compilation of Korean Central Broadcasting Station's
   program previews for 14 June, which are aired daily at approximately 2000
   and 0300 GMT. Programming schedule changes and summaries of talks and
   programs are noted in ed itorial brackets; no further processing planned
   on any of the items unless otherwise indicated. OSC has filed program
   summaries of all the newscasts as the two referent items.
   31) Colombia Crime and Narcotics Issues 14 Jun 10
   32) S. Korea to Complete Design of New Mid-size Reactor By Late 2010
   33) Today In History
   34) Bolivia Press 14 June 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   35) Greek Press 12 Jun 10
   The following lists selected items from the Greek Press on 12 June; To
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735, or fax (703) 613-5735
   36) US State Department Says DPRK Remains Among 12 'Worst' Human
   Trafficking Countries
   Updated version: "UPDATES with more details, background throughout;"
   Yonhap headline: "N. Korea Remains Among 12 Worst Human Trafficking
   Countries: State Dept." by Hwang Doo-hyong
   37) Thai Column Says ASEAN 'Needs' To Pressure Burma To Clarify Nuclear
   Plan
   Commentary by Kavi Chongkittavorn: "Regional Response Needed for Burma's
   Nuclear Ambition"
   38) RMRB Article Says World Must not Wait in Handling Climate Change
   Matters
   Article by RMRB editor Xin Benjian: "The World Must not Hesitate in
   Combating Climate Change" Ctirlg:
   39) ROK Official Says 'No Objections' From UNSC Members on Sunken Ship
   Probe
   Yonhap headline: "No objections from U.N. Security Council members on
   sunken ship probe: official" by Chang Jae-soon
   40) UNSC to Hear Both Koreas on Cheonan Sinking
   41) Mexico's Northern Border Crime/Narcotics/Security Issues 12-14 Jun 10
   42) Mexican Legislators Urge US Counterparts To Approve Immigration Refor
   ms
   Report filed in Campeche by special correspondent Claudia Salazar:
   "Coherence on Migration demanded From US"
   43) Mexico Southeastern Crime/Narcotics/Security Issues 14 Jun 10
   44) Mexico Political Issues 12-14 Jun 10
   45) Former Policeman Linked To Drug Scheme Arrested
   Unattributed report "Ex-cop Wanted for 30 Killings Captured in Mexico" --
   EFE Headline
   46) ROK, DPRK To Address UN Security Council Over Ship Sinking
   Updated version: Replacing 0105 GMT version with update provided by source
   at 0640 GMT, which recasts first 3 grafs and updates graf 5, 10-11, 14-15
   with comments from the foreign ministry spokesman, and provides a by-line;
   By Chang Jae-soon: "South, North Korea to Address U.N. Security Council
   Over Ship Sinking"
   47) DPRK Threats, PRC Reluctance 'Hobble' ROK's Response to Ch'o'nan
   Unattributed report: "Uncer tainties Hobble S.Korea's Response to Cheonan
   Sinking"
   48) US Increases aid To Protect Civilians, To Promote Economic Recovery
   Report by Nicolas Michel: "Obama and the Ugandan Patient"
   49) Foreign Visitors in Cuba 7-13 Jun 10
   50) Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Dominican Republic Media 14 June 2010
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   51) ROK, Colombia Start 3rd Round of Free Trade Talks on 14 Jun
   Updated version: adding International Economic tag; Yonhap headline: "S.
   Korea, Colombia start 3rd round of free trade talks"
   52) S. Korea, Colombia Start 3rd Round of Free Trade Talks
   53) Police Launch New Agency To Track Down Transnational Criminals
   Report by Wassayos Ngamkham: "New Agency Bags Robbery Gang"
   54) Government Break down as a Political Risk
   "Government Breakdown as a Political Risk" -- The Daily Star Headline
   55) Arms Expert Cited on Club Missile System Development, Operation, Sale
   Report by Sergey Turchenko: "Soviet-Vintage Biryuza Has Given the
   Americans a Fright. 1983 Development Has Proven More Reliable Than Bulava"
   56) Ousted Kyrgyz President's Son Detained In Britain
   Updated Version, amending tagging
   57) Ousted Kyrgyz President's Son Detained In Britain (Adds)
   58) Greece Attempts to Prevent Turkey's Request Not to Submit Flight Plans
   in Aegean
   Report by Angelos Athanasopoulos: "A Game of 'Chess' With Ankara on the
   Flights in the Aegean"
   59) Natl Foreign Policy Lab Director Proposes Count Formula for Next START
   Article by National Foreign Policy Laboratory Director Nikita Ivanov:
   "Reality of the Strategic Balance"60) UK-Based Pan-Arab Editor Lists
   Demands Arabs Want Turkey To Resolve
   Commentary by Tarqi al-Humayd: "Turkey: Here's Our List of Demands"
   61) Iran's Military Warns Against Inspecting Iranian Ships in Persian Gulf
   62) Syrian, US Sources Deny Reports Syrian Ambassador Withdrawn From
   Washington
   Report by Kamil Saqr in Damascus: "Following Senate's Refusal To Appoint
   Robert Ford Ambassador in Damascus, US and Syrian Sources; Ambassador
   Mustafa's Long Vacation Does Not Mean a Call Back From his Duties"
   63) Kenya Calls on Security Council To Upgrade AU Peacekeeping Mission in
   Somalia
   Report by Nick Wachira: "Kenya Wants the Mission Upgraded to UN Mission"
   64) Iraqi Kurdish Arabic Press 14 Jun 10
   The following lists selected items from two Baghdad-based Kurdish
   newspapers on 14 Jun. To request additional processing, please call OSC at
   (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735, or fax (703) 613-5735.
   65) Iran's Press TV airs documentary on post-election violence
   66) Roundup of Khuzestan Province Friday Prayer Sermons 11 Jun 10
   67) London School of Economics Report Claims ISI, Zardari Back Taliban
   Unattributed report: ISI, Zardari join forces to back Taliban!
   68) British Energy Group BP Says Gulf Oil Spill Costs Reach 1.6 Billion
   Dollars
   "BP Says Gulf Oil Spill Costs Reach 1.6 Billion Dollars" -- AFP headline
   69) Security, Space Make Lebanese Shy Away From Couchsurfing
   "Security, Space Make Lebanese Shy Away From Couchsurfing" -- The Daily
   Star Headline
   70) Xinhua 'Roundup' on UNSC Resolution 1929 Imposing New Sanctions on
   Iran
   "International Observation" roundup by foreign-based reporters Wang
   Xiangjiang, Gu Zhenqiu, Bai Jie, Du Yuanjiang, and He Guanghai: "The
   Iranian Nuclear Issue: the meaning of the New Resolution on Sanctions"
   71) British Foreign Secretary Urges Iran To Heed UN Sanctions, Engage in
   Dialogue
   Article by British Foreign Secretary William Hague: "A Message That the
   Iranian Government Should Not Ignore"
   72) Afghan state TV reports Karzai's meeting with new British PM
   73) Northern Central America Press 12-14 Jun 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   74) 2 US-Bound Guatemalan Soldiers Carrying Heroin Arrested
   "Salvadoran Cops Arrest 2 Guatemalan Soldiers With Heroin Bound for US" --
   EFE headline
   75) Talk Of The Day -- Ecfa Effect: Volkswagen To Set Up Plant Here?
   By Sofia Wu
   76) The Buck Should Stop With Lee
   "Viewpoint" column by Kim Jin, an editorial wri ter and Translation by the
   JoongAng Daily staff: "The Buck Should Stop With Lee"
   77) Local Tensions Keep Lid on Nation's Credit Rating
   78) Lawmaker Calls For Castration of Pedophiles
   79) Three Die in Mogadishu Explosion
   Xinhua: "Three Die in Mogadishu Explosion"
   80) Magazine Alleges Signing of 'Confidential' Agreement Over Transition
   Unattributed report from 'Confidential Reports' section: "The Rabat
   Declaration"
   81) Palestinian Reports on Infrastructure Projects 5-11 Jun 10
   The following lists highlights of reprots on infrastructure projects
   carried in the Palestinian media between 5 and 11 June. To request
   additional processing, or for assistance with multimedia elements, call
   OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
   82) Czech Jun 14 Press Views Slovak Election Result
   "Czech P ress Survey" -- Czech Happenings headline
   83) S. Korea's Credit Rating Remains Relatively Low Among G20 Nations
   84) Making Our Schools Safe
   85) Xinhua 'Roundup': Indonesia Preparing for Coping With European Crisis
   Xinhua "Roundup" by Mulyanda Djohan : "Indonesia Preparing for Coping With
   European Crisis"
   86) Activists Protest About Plan To Build Nuclear Power Plants in Country
   Report by Andri Haryanto: "Rejecting Nuclear Energy, 100 Persons Protest
   at Proclamation of Independence Monument"
   87) Roundup of Middle East Friday Sermons 11 Jun
   88) Commercial Times: Crisis Underlying Taiwan's Public Debt
   By Y.F. Low
   89) Kan's Characteristics as Politician and Understanding on Security
   Issues
   Article by Rui Abiru titled "Naoto Kan Takes the Mound with Priority on
   Performance and H is 30 Year Plan, Light Demeanor of Kan Could Be a Good
   or Bad Omen." Article discusses Prime Minister Kan's strong desire for
   upward mobility, his catering to the wishes of the people, his feelings
   about the Imperial family, and concerns about his understanding of
   security. Kan's light demeanor could turn out to be either a good or a bad
   omen.
   90) Okinawa Local TV Evening News 14 Jun 10
   For a copy of the video, contact GSG_GVP_VideoOps@rccb.osis.gov or the OSC
   Customer Center at (800) 205-8615. Selected video also available at
   OpenSource.gov.
   91) DPRK Party Organ on US-ROK-Japan Agreements at 5 Jun Defense Minister
   Talks
   OSC plans to process the below-cited Rodong Sinmun "signed commentary" as
   first referent item; KCNA headline: "S. Korea-u.S.-japan 'Cooperation' in
   Moves For War of Aggression Against DPRK Under Fire"
   92) DPRK Condemns IAEA Chief's Comment on Nuclear Issue
   X inhua: "DPRK Condemns IAEA Chief's Comment on Nuclear Issue"
   93) S. Korea Unlikely to Follow Japan's Housing Market Crash: Goldman
   Sachs
   94) Scientists To Retrieve Japanese Asteroid Capsule Landed in Australia
   "Scientists scramble for Japanese asteroid capsule" -- AFP headline
   95) An Alliance Reconfirmed
   "Viewpoint" column by Kim Jung-wook, the Washington correspondent and
   Translation by the JoongAng Daily staff: "An Alliance Reconfirmed"
   96) Pan-Arab Editor: Riyadh Will Not Allow Israel Use Its Airspace Against
   Iran
   Commentary by Abd-al-Rahman al-Rashid: "The Saudi Corridor and the Israeli
   Strike"
   97) Pan-Arab Editor: 'Illogical' for Saudi Arabia To Allow Israel Use its
   Airspace
   Commentary by Editor in Chief Tariq al-Humayd: "Israel and Passing through
   Saudi Airspace"
   98) M acedonian Commentary Sees Israeli Raid on Turkish Ship as 'Tactical
   Blunder'
   Commentary by Edon Qesari: "Nothing new From Eastern Front"
   99) Kenyan religious leaders rap Biden over remarks on draft constitution
   100) Gcc Chief Says Israel Has No Options After Saudi Smear Campaign
   Reports
   "Gcc Chief Says Israel Has No Options After Saudi Smear Campaign Reports"
   -- KUNA Headline
   101) Obama Asks Congress To Fund Israel's Rocket Defense System
   "Obama Asks Congress To Fund Israel"s Rocket Defense System" -- KUNA
   Headline
   102) Metro Policeman Faces Charge of Trying to Extort Bribe from US Soccer
   Fans
   Report by Charl du Plessis: "Cop Fleeces US Tourists" - "Americans Lay
   Corruption Charge over 'Bribe'"
   103) Opinion Calls for US President To Provide Proof in MBS Case
   Opinion by Gustavo Mavie: "Ques tioning the Existence of al Qaeda Training
   Camps in Mozambique
   104) South African 2010 Soccer World Cup Media Highlights 13-14 Jun 10
   Corrected version: Replacing text with reedited version
   105) South African 2010 Soccer World Cup Media Highlights 13-14 Jun 10
   106) Nothing Could Dampen Spirits of Red Devils
   107) Thai Column Urges ASEAN Rights Body To Join Probe Panel on 19 May
   Crackdown
   Commentary by Sarinna Areethamsirikul: "The Thai Political Crisis and the
   Future of ASEAN"
   108) Editorial Urges Thais To Recognize 'Moral Obligations' in Middle East
   Conflict
   Editorial: "Time We Grasped Palestinian Issue"
   109) Thai Editorial Asks UN To Dissuade Iran From Developing Nuclear
   Weapons
   Editorial: "Iran Dismisses UN Sanctions"
   110) Thai Envoy Asks US To Refrain From Mediating in Tal ks With Red-Shirt
   Protestors
   Unattributed report: "Thai Envoy Asks US To Steer Clear of Mediation"
   111) Recommendations for Malaysia To Improve Human Trafficking Enforcement
   BERNAMA report from the "General" page: "Several Recommendations For
   Malaysia To Improve Human Trafficking Actions"
   112) Malaysia Chinese Press 12-14 Jun 10
   The following lists selected reports carried in Malaysia's Chinese press
   on 12-14 Jun 10. To request additional processing, please contact OSC at
   (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
   113) Malaysia Rises to Tier 2 of US Trafficking in Persons Report
   BERNAMA report from the "General" page: "Malaysia Rises To Tier 2 Of
   Trafficking In Persons Report"
   114) Report Says Kingpin Call Unsurprising, Drug Trafficking Increasing
   Report by Paul Fauvet: "Revisiting Recent History"&lt;/ a&gt;
   115) Taxi Company Owned by Bashir's Niece Affected by US Drug Kingpin Ban
   116) Nigerian Commitee Denounces 'Anti-DPRK Campaign' of US and ROK
   KCNA headline: "Anti-dprk Campaign of U.S. And S. Korea Accused"
   117) JFJB on US Patriot Missiles in Poland, Anti-Missile Systems in Europe
   To request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735; or email: oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   118) Rwandan court delays US lawyer's plea hearing
   119) Militant Behind US Consulate Attack Said Killed in 'Accidental Blast'
   Report by Mushtaq Yusufzai: "LeJ Commander Qari Zafar Killed in
   'Accidental IED Blast'"
   120) Urdu Press Roundup on Turkey's Protest Against Israeli Aggression
   121) Urdu Press Roundup Discusses Role of US, UN in Israeli Siege of Gaza
   The following is a rou ndup of excerpts from editorials and articles on
   the humanitarian situation in Gaza as a result of prolonged Israeli siege,
   the repercussions of Israeli attack on the aid workers traveling to Gaza
   in Freedom Flotilla, and the role of different stakeholders including the
   United States, published in the 12 June edition of three Urdu dailies
   122) Protests, Conferences in Cities Against Blasphemous Caricatures
   Unattributed report: "Hurmat-e- Rasool [Honor of Prophet] Conferences,
   Protest Demonstrations Against Blasphemous Caricatures, Israeli
   Aggression; Demand for Blasphemy Law at International Level"
   123) Foreign Nationals Renting Houses in Quetta Arouses Curiosity
   Report by Jawad R Awan: Shadowy activities of US operatives in Quetta
   124) Report Says F-16 Fighter Jets Being Given to Pakistan Under Tough
   Conditions
   Online report: PAF to get F-16s with tough stipulations
   125) Kidnappers Kill Abducted Employee of US-Based NGO in Quetta
   Unattributed report: Abducted NGO employee slaughtered
   126) Khaksar Tehreek Chief Says People Should Unite Against Imperial
   Forces
   Report by staff correspondent: People should unite against imperial
   forces
   127) Minister Says Gas Project With Iran Not to Affect Ties With US
   Unattributed report: Gas project not to affect ties with US: Naveed
   128) Official Reports Show Double Increase in Drone Attacks in 5 Months
   Report by Asif Ali Bhatti: "Double Increase in Drone Attacks; 38 Strikes
   in 5 Months"
   129) Former Afghan Intelligence Chief Behind Propaganda To Malign
   Pakistan
   Report by staff correspondent: Ex-Afghan intelligence chief behind
   anti-Pakistan propaganda
   130) Pakistan Article Says US Strategy To Weaken Afghan Taliban Bound To
   Fail
   Article by Asif H aroon Raja: Kandahar Operation Bound To Fail
   131) Well-Known Website Declares President Zardari as US Citizen
   Report by Azim M Mian: Website declares Zardari US citizen
   132) Detained Militants in Afghanistans Bagram Prison May be Used Against
   Pakistan
   Report by Sikander Shaheen: Bagram detainees may be used against
   Pakistan
   133) Saudi Press 14 Jun 10
   The following lists selected items from the Saudi press on 14 Jun 10. To
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
   134) ROK Naval Exercise To Mark 60th Anniversary of Korean War
   Updated version: upgrading precedence, modifying headline, adding
   metadata, adding cross ref; Yonhap headline: "Naval Drill to Mark 60th
   Anniversary of Korean War"
   135) DPRK Releases Joint Statement on 10th Anniversary of 15 Jun Joint
   Declaration
   P yongyang Korean Central Broadcasting Station (KCBS) in Korean carried
   the following in its 2100 GMT newscast on 14 June, which OSC plans to
   translate as first referent item; KCNA headline: "All Koreans Called Upon
   to Unite Under Banner of June 15 Joint Declaration"
   136) State Department Says Senior US Official 'Due' in Seoul To Discuss
   Ship Sinking
   Yonhap headline: "Campbell Due in Seoul on Ship Sinking, Other Issues:
   State Dept." by Hwang Doo-hyong
   137) PRC Article Wary of ROK Explanation of Ship Sinking
   To request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735; or email: oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   138) ROK Defense Ministry To Offer Cultural Tours for US Soldiers
   By Song Sang-ho: "U.S. Soldiers to Get Cultural Tours"
   139) DPRK Party Organ Says IAEA Chief Makes 'Imbecile' Remarks on Nuclear
   Issue
   KCNA head line: "IAEA Chief's Reckless Remarks Snubbed"; OSC is texting
   the full vernacular version as first-referent item; Pyongyang Korean
   Central Broadcasting Station in Korean is scheduled to broadcast the
   following at 0952 GMT on 14 June.
   140) People's Daily Online: 'Thomas Barnett Recommends US Never Go To War
   with China'
   Article by John Milligan-Whyte and Dai Min: "Thomas Barnett Recommends US
   Never Go To War with China"; headline as provided by source
   141) KCNA Carries DPRK Army's 12 Jun 'Proclamation' Against ROK
   Loudspeakers
   Pyongyang Korean Central Broadcasting Station (KCBS) in Korean carried the
   following as the second of two items in its 0300 GMT newscast on 12 June;
   KCNA headline: "KPA General Staff Issues Crucial Declaration"
   142) ROK Editorial Urges President Lee To Complete Military Reshuffle 'As
   Soon As Possible'
   Editorial: "Is The Military Ready to Deal With N.Korea?"
   143) DPRK's KCNA: Czech Group Issues Statement Supporting 'Struggle for
   National Reunification'
   KCNA headline: "Korean People's Struggle For National Reunification
   Supported"
   144) NK Threatens to Make Seoul `Sea of Flames`
   145) Seoul Set to Present Evidence At UN
   146) MPs Reject Commission List To Oversee South Referendum
   147) TKP Column Views US Policy of Returning to Asia
   Article by Ts'ui Ning: "The United States 'Has To Change' Its Policy
   Toward Taiwan"
   148) Taiwan Democracy Rooted In Decades Of Practice: President
   By Lee Shu-hua and Deborah Kuo
   149) Talk Of The Day -- New Model For Cross-strait Negotiations
   By Sofia Wu
   150) Turkey Not Fully Comply With Eliminating Human Trafficking, But
   Trying
   "U.S. REPORT SAYS TURKEY DOES NOT FULL Y COMPLY WITH STANDARDS FOR
   ELAMINATION OF HUMAN TRAFICKING" -- AA headline
   151) Somali commerce minister wants trials of suspected pirates held
   inside country
   152) US official says Turkey conference to discuss restoring peace in
   Somalia
   153) USA reportedly refuses to sign new ICC statute
   154) Vietnam Head Triet on Political, Economic Relations, 'Vietnam-Towns'
   Interview with Nguyen Minh Triet, president of Vietnam, conducted by Irina
   Reznik on 10 Jun 2010; place not given: "'Russia Will Ensure the Whole
   World's Security' -- Nguyen Minh Triet, President of Vietnam"
   155) Analysts Urge Zimbabweans To Find Ways To Lift Self-Imposed Sanctions
   on State
   Article by Kholwani Nyathi: "US Imposed Sanctions: Facts and Fiction"
   156) Third Round Of Talks On Child Adoption Deal Begins
   157) Russia Cal ls For Drafting OSCE Concept Against Drug Trafficking
   158) Senior US Official to Visit Seoul This Week
   159) US Troops in ROK Invited To Participate in Cultural Tours
   Updated version: modifying headline, adding metadeta, adding cross ref;
   Yonhap headline: "U.S. Troops in S. Korea Invited to Participate in
   Cultural Tours"
   160) People's Daily Online: 'US Must Restrain Provocative Military
   Actions'
   Unattributed report: "US Must Restrain Provocative Military Actions";
   headline as provided by source
   161) Accumulated Sales of Hyundai Sonata Sedan 'Tops' 5 Million Units
   Yonhap headline: "Accumulated Sales of Hyundai Sonata Sedan Tops 5 Mln"
   162) ROK Trade Surplus With US Narrows in Jan-May Period
   Updated version: rewording headline, adjusting tags; Unattributed report:
   "Korea's Trade Surplus With U.S. Narrows in Jan.-may&amp;qu ot;
   163) Prosecution System to Reform For Enhanced Transparency
   164) Korea's Trade Surplus With U.S. Narrows in Jan.-may
   165) Chinese FTA a Bittersweet Prospect
   "Viewpoint" column by Song E-young, a professor of economics at Sogang
   University and Translation by the JoongAng Daily staff: "Chinese FTA a
   Bittersweet Prospect"
   166) KT Hits a Wi-fi Milestone
   167) Accumulated Sales of Hyundai Sonata Sedan Tops 5 Mln
   168) Israeli Gov't OKs Flotilla Inquiry Panel; Netanyahu Notes Goals,
   Briefs EU Leaders

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   1) Back to Top
   Made in China Is Taking on a New, More Formidable Shape
   Made in China Is Taking on a New, More Formidable Shape -- The Daily Star
   Headline - The Daily Star Online
   Mond ay June 14, 2010 06:57:25 GMT
   Monday, June 14, 2010

   'It-s a dying business,' said the owner of a garmentfactory I met in
   Zhuhai, a city in Guangdong Province. Like many in his line ofbusiness, he
   is packing up. Lured by abundant cheap labor, investors flooded toZhuhai
   two decades ago. Gone, it seems, is the heyday of T-shirts, toys,plastic
   flowers, tiles, hooks, springs, and the like. Today, the costs
   ofmanufacturing such items are lower in countries like Bangladesh and
   Vietnamthan in Guangdong.As labor costs continue to climb, is China set to
   lose its coveted spot as theworld-s workshop?Rising labor costs are
   inevitable. China-s government introduced toughlabor laws and a minimum
   wage in 2008. Recent policies to improve ruraleconomic conditions have
   slowed the flow of migrants from the countryside.Workers are demanding
   higher compensation to match the fast-rising cost ofliving in China-s
   cities, as manifested in an ong oing and high-profilelabor strike at a
   Honda plant based in Guangdong. Salary was the major point
   ofcontention.Workers on strike demanded a raise in pay from the current
   1,500 renminbi($234.00) to 2,000-2,500 renminbi ($373.13) per month.
   Clearly, Chinesefactories can no longer offer dirt-cheap prices.Apparel
   production is a prime example of China-s declining competivenessin markets
   dependent on low-cost labor. According to a study by the USconsulting firm
   Jassin O-Rourke, labor costs in China are higher than inseven other Asian
   countries. The average cost for a worker is $1.08 per hour inChina-s
   coastal provinces and $0.55-0.80 in the inland provinces. Indiawas in
   seventh place, at $0.51 per hour. Bangladesh offers the lowest cost,only
   one-fifth the price of locations like Shanghai and Suzhou.Adding to
   China-s labor woes, the financial crisis during the last twoyears had a
   disastrous effect on foreign demand. In 2009, China-s exportvalue fell by
   16 percent from 2008. Labor intensive industries were especiallyhard hit.
   In the textiles industry, profits declined for the first time in 10years
   in 2008. In March 2009, exports of electronics and IT products
   tumblednearly 25 percent from the previous period. Although Chinese
   exports have begunto recover in 2010, the impact of the financial crisis
   remains palpable. ByJanuary 2010, the value of exports has returned to its
   previous level in thesame period of 2008. But many factories have already
   perished.For Chinese manufacturers, a long-term trend of rising costs
   coupled with ashort-term export slump were unprecedented challenges. But
   the government andentrepreneurs are not idly sitting by as competitiveness
   slips. These adverseconditions have inadvertently propelled a long-delayed
   restructuring ofChina-s labor-intensive industries. As costs surge,
   Chinese producers areseeking higher value, new niches, and more influence
   over policymaking.Along China-s dynamic coastal belt, local governments
   are drafti ng neweconomic blueprints to push their firms up the
   value-added chain. Consider thecase of a textiles manufacturing center in
   Jiangsu province, dubbed the'silk capital' of China. Three-quarters of the
   city-s GDP hadbeen coming from textiles production. Last year, however,
   exports fell by about15 percent. For local planners, the export shock was
   a wake-up call for change.As a result, officials in Jiangsu are no longer
   content with sewing clothing.Leveraging a mixture of administrative
   guidance and monetary incentives, thecity government plans to reduce the
   share of garments in the output of textilesproducts by 25 percent in three
   years and to increase the industrialapplications of chemical fibers, which
   promise much higher returns than apparelproduction. Already, according to
   local officials, the city-s factorieshave acquired the ability to
   mass-produce super-thin fibers first designed inJapan.In fact, the global
   meltdown may turn out to be a blessing in disguise forindustri al
   upgrading. Slumping orders devastated low-end producers, whichbarely
   survived on wafer-thin margins. Half of China-s toy factories wentbust by
   the end of 2008. Though alarming in the short term, the eradication
   ofsmall producers spells good news for those that survived the crisis. As
   firmsconsolidate market share, they gain economies of scale. Larger firms
   are morecapable of pooling resources for research and development, which
   is the key toChina-s aspirations to climb the value ladder.Less fragmented
   industries also lobby better. Traditionally, contractmanufacturers in
   China are scattered and fiercely competitive. They have littleif any say
   over domestic and international regulations. Producers in Jiangsu,for
   example, were forced to adapt constantly to fickle product-safety
   andenvironmental standards in export markets. Compared to producers in the
   UnitedStates and Europe, those in China are weakly organized and
   passive.This could change. As surviving firms gain in size, Chinese
   businesses mayexercise more bargaining power vis-a-vis the Chinese
   government andforeign firms. Exercising a louder voice in politics at home
   and abroad couldmean reduced uncertainty for Chinese exporters. Consider
   the strategy ofLenovo, China-s largest computer manufacturer; it has hired
   a lobbyist inWashington DC, reportedly the first Chinese company to do
   so.In decades to come, China can no longer sustain the cost advantages
   thatdefined its initial period of export success. But it is a mistake to
   think thatChina-s manufacturing will remain in the doldrums. Compared to
   manydeveloping countries, China-s government is stable and embraces
   foreigninvestment. Industrial clusters have been established in many parts
   of thecountry, where business connections can compensate for rising costs.
   Domesticconsumption is growing. Further, as low-end, low-cost labor jobs
   morph towardhigher-end, higher-cost jobs, China will move not only into
   more valuablemanufactured goods, but als o into the service industries,
   such as design. Thischange, too, could give the US a difficult new
   run-for-its-money.When China-s labor-intensive industries emerge from
   their metamorphosis,we should expect to see firms that are larger, that
   invest more in productinnovation and design, and that hold more sway over
   business and tradepolicies. So 'Made in China' is not losing international
   dominanceyet. It is merely taking on a new - and possibly more formidable
   -shape.Ang Yuen Yuen is a professor of international affairs at Columbia
   University.THE DAILY STAR publishes this commentary in collaboration with
   ProjectSyndicate (c) (www.project-syndicate.org).(Description of Source:
   Beirut The Daily Star Online in English -- Website of the independent
   daily, The Daily Star; URL: http://dailystar.com.lb)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may b e directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   2) Back to Top
   Bangladeshi Group Issues Statement on US, ROK Authorities' 'Anti-DPRK
   Moves'
   KCNA headline: "U.S. And S. Korean Authorities' Anti-dprk Moves Flayed" -
   KCNA
   Monday June 14, 2010 03:51:27 GMT
   (Description of Source: Pyongyang KCNA in English -- Official DPRK news
   agency. URL: http://www.kcna.co.jp)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   3) Back to Top
   Brazil Crime and Narcotics Issues 14 Jun 10
   For assistance with multimedia e lements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Brazil -- OSC Summary
   Tuesday June 15, 2010 03:29:00 GMT
   On 14 June Ana Bizzotto reports in Sao Paulo O Estado de Sao Paulo Digital
   that as of December the Federal Police (PF) will issue a new passport; the
   document with a five-year validity will contain an electronic chip similar
   to the one already adopted by a number of countries in the EU, as well as
   in Japan, Australia, and the United States. The chip will store the
   bearer's image, 10 fingerprints, and signature; it will cost the PF double
   the amount spent to issue the current Brazilian passport that is blue due
   to a Mercosur agreement. In a related article Bizzotto explains that the
   electronic passport will ease reentry for passengers coming home. (Sao
   Paulo O Estado de Sao Paulo Digital in Portuguese -- website of
   conservative, influential daily, critical of the government; URL:

   http://www.estadao.com.br/ http://www.estadao.com.br/ ) Sao Paulo Alley in
   the Aldeia Slum where the death of an accused pedophile set off a wave of
   vigilante gang killings - 13 June - O Estado de S.Paulo Sao Paulo
   Organized Crime Gang Convicts, Executes Pedophile Sparking Vigilante Gang
   Murders in Reprisal --

   On 13 June Bruno Paes Manso Sao Paulo O Estado de Sao Paulo Digital
   reports that in early April women in the Aldeia shantytown in Vicente de
   Carvalho, a district of Guaruja, a Sao Paulo coastal resort, accused night
   watchman Anderson Oliveira dos Santos, 31, of pedophilia. Santos was taken
   in a van to a hut in the Vila Baiana slum some 20 kilometers away and put
   before a panel made up of members of the First Command of the Capital, or
   PCC, a criminal organization based in Sao Paulo. Aldeia slum crime boss
   Eduardinho headed the panel. Santos was apparently convicted, or so his
   disappearance immediately after the events seems to convey. The case would
   have ended there as another suspected crime case solved by a local
   criminal organization, were it not for the fact that Santos was the
   brother of Celio, a Military Police (PM) officer in Diadema, a town in Sao
   Paulo's ABCD region up the coast from Guaruja. PM Celio led a number of
   search parties to find his missing brother over the fortnight that
   followed his so-called trial. The search parties are said to have
   humiliated women and children, as well as beaten and shot persons
   questioned in connection with the case. On 18 April hooded men on two
   motorcycles fired 10 rifle shots at Paulo Raphael Ferreira Pires, a PM
   soldier in his car parked in Guaruja. According to witnesses Pires and his
   brother were part of PM Celio's gang searching for Santos or his body.
   Pires' murder preceded a total 23 executions in the city and nearby towns
   between 18 and 26 April. The rise in the Sao Paulo State murder rate that
   had been declining for 10 years is attributed to the Guaruja killings.
   According to Guaruja Alderman Ronald Luiz Nicolaci, a former PM officer,
   the episode is a repeat performance. The PCC runs drug dealing in the
   region's slums. Police officers who live in districts adjoining the
   shantytowns are often threatened and cannot count on support from their
   commanding officers. As a result PMs band together and take matters into
   their own hands to mark their territory. Following the wave of attacks
   coordinated by the PCC in May 2006, 10 unattributed murders took place in
   Guaruja; the state tally stands at 89. Tension between organized crime
   gang members and PMs has been growing since 2008, when wiretaps linked PCC
   members to the murder of two PMs and the attempted murder of another two.
   A PM anonymously said in an interview that he sleeps with his pistol
   beside his bed and no longer rides in a car with his wife and son to
   ensure their safety. In 2009 66 PMs died while off duty; many o f them
   moonlig hting as security guards. In a related article Manso describes the
   other side of the story outlining crimes committed by PMs banded together
   in vigilante operations and associations that congregate family members of
   their victims. Since the 2006 PCC attack wave killers wearing ninja-style
   hoods have killed 360 people, according to newspaper reports. The
   disguised killers may not have all been PM officers, argues a victim
   support group member, but chances are many are at least linked to the
   police.

   Federal Highway Police Seize 1 Metric Ton of Marijuana in Sao Paulo
   Hinterland --

   On 14 June Sao Paulo O Estado de Sao Paulo Digital reports that on the
   same date Federal Highway Police (PRF) seized close to 1 metric ton of
   marijuana hidden under false flooring and in the bodywork of a truck in
   driving on Federal Highway BR-153 in Ourinhos, Sao Paulo. The PRF arrested
   the driver who confessed that he was paid 2,000 reais to pick up the ma
   rijuana in Parana and deliver it in Sao Paulo City.

   Rio de Janeiro Federal Police Dismantle 30,000 Subscriber Clandestine
   Cable TV Operation in Rio de Janeiro --

   On 14 June Rio de Janeiro Globo G1 website reports that Federal Police
   (PF) dismantled a clandestine cable TV network in Rio de Janeiro state
   that served some 30,000 subscribers and generated revenues of some 500,000
   reais ($278,000) per month. The PF arrested five persons in linked to the
   pirate service; one suspect is a police officer and one a former prison
   guard. The operation that seized equipment, vehicles, and optical fiber
   cables is still seeking to arrest some 10 suspects. The clandestine
   service was based in a district in downtown Nova Iguacu and had affiliated
   offices in other districts of Rio's Baixada Fluminense region. (Rio de
   Janeiro Globo G1 (Internet Version-WWW) in Portuguese --- Rio de Janeiro
   Globo Network website - center-right, generally pro-government
   URL:http://g1.g lobo.com/) Rio de Janeiro Military Police Kill Suspected
   Drug Dealers in Shantytown Shootout --

   On 13 June Bernardo Tabak reports in Rio de Janeiro Globo G1 website that
   on 12 June Military Police (PM) officers shot and killed two men said to
   be drug dealers in the Para Pedro slum of Colegio, a Rio de Janeiro
   suburb. According to the hospital where the victims were taken, both were
   apparently 20 years old and killed by several bullets. According to the
   PM, the dead suspects fired first. The PM's seized a grenade, a 763
   machine gun, a 9mm pistol, and a substantial but unspecified amount of
   drugs from the suspects.

   Shootouts in Rio de Janeiro Leave Three Dead and Seven Injured in Violent
   Weekend --

   On 12 June Rio de Janeiro Globo G1 website reports that a number of
   shootouts left seven people injured in Rio de Janeiro on the 12-13 June
   weekend, plus three dead in the Mare and Serrinha slums as well as on the
   Red Line expressway. Rio de Janeiro Civi l Police Uncover Credit Card
   Robbery Scheme, Arrests Embezzlers at Wedding Party --

   On 13 June a report in Rio de Janeiro Globo G1 website opens with images
   of a wedding. After the bride and groom exchange their vows, Civil Police
   (PC) officers arrive and arrest not only the bride and groom but 8 guests
   all linked to an embezzlement scheme; the PC arrested nine more suspects
   elsewhere. The gang engaged Post Office workers to intercept credit cards
   and use them to purchase goods passed on to stolen goods' dealers. Among
   other things such as travel, the gang used the embezzled funds to pay for
   the wedding party. The newlyweds face up to 20 years in prison along with
   their associates. Mato Grosso do Sul Trained dog finds cocaine in Mato
   Grosso do Sul Globo G1 website - 14 June Federal Police Catches Mules With
   4 Kg of Cocaine in Mato Grosso do Sul Hinterland --

   On 14 June Rio de Janeiro Globo G1 website reports that on 12 June Federal
   Police (PF) arrested t wo unidentified persons aged 22 and 27 driving a
   car on Federal Highway BR-262 near Terenos, Mato Grosso do Sul, and seized
   4 kg of cocaine hidden under false flooring in the vehicle. The mules
   confessed that they were hired to pick up the cocaine in Corumba and
   deliver it in Campo Grande, both in the same state. Drug sniffing dogs
   found the cocaine. Mato Grosso do Sul Based Drug Dealing Gang Sold
   Cocaine, Pirated Discs --

   On 14 June Rio de Janeiro Globo G1 website reports that on the same date
   Federal Police (PF) officers arrested at least four people linked to a
   drug dealing gang that also sold pirated CDs and DVDs. Civil Police (PC)
   officers are linked to the gang that bought Bolivian cocaine, brought it
   in to Corumba and Campo Grande, in Mato Grosso do Sul, to distribute it to
   other states from there. A PC officer linked to the gang was arrested in
   April with 14 kg of the gang's cocaine. Among the suspects arrested is a
   man said to own a facility that r eplicated the pirated discs that the
   gang sold.

   Border Operation Agents Seize Truckload of Illegal Wood in Mato Grosso do
   Sul --

   On 14 June Rio de Janeiro Globo G1 website reports that before dawn on the
   same date Border Operation Department (DOF) agents arrested a 39-year old
   unidentified driver and seized a truckload of wood in Corumba, Mato Grosso
   do Sul. The driver claimed that he bought the wood in Bolivia and was
   doing to deliver it in Rio Verde de Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, but
   he did not have the required documents.

   Rio Grande do Sul Federal Police Seize 25 Kg of Cocaine in Rio Grande do
   Sul Hinterland --

   On 14 June Rio de Janeiro Globo G1 website reports that on 14 June Federal
   Police (PF) officers arrested three unidentified men in Viamao, Rio Grande
   do Sul, and seized 25 kg of cocaine, two vehicles, cell phones, and an
   unspecified amount of money. The narcotic was destined for distribution in
   Porto Alegre, the state capital .

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   4) Back to Top
   Pakistan Article Says New Sanctions Against Iran Expose UNs Dubious Role
   Article by Jalees Hazir: Global foul play - The Nation Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 22:40:12 GMT
   A resolution for new sanctions against Iran was adopted by the United
   Nations Security Council last week exposing yet again the council's
   dubious role in world affairs. Rather than ensuring security in the
   region, the new sanctions have sown the seeds of war. It is no secret that
   the United States is relentlessly working towards engineering a military
   confrontation with Ira n, while simultaneously fomenting trouble and
   working for a regime change in the Islamic republic next door. In
   approving the unwise and dangerous sanctions pushed by the US, the UNSC
   has acted, once again, as a tool to further the agenda of this global
   bully. So what is one to make of our brave new multi-polar world?

   It does not take an expert on international relations to decipher the
   US-Iran standoff and how it is obviously spiralling in a dangerous
   direction. The new round of sanctions can be used to create precarious
   situations and skirmishes as war-mongering US ships, in the garb of
   enforcing the sanctions, attempt to inspect and even attack Iranian
   vessels. In fact, given its track record, it is safe to say that this is
   exactly what the US plans to do next. It is known for inventing similar
   reasons to start wars. In recent history, we've seen how the devious
   superpower eventually invaded Iraq using provocations disguised as
   enforcement of sanctions and fabricat ed weapons of mass destruction as an
   excuse.

   In Iran's case, there has been a build-up since the Bush days, and Obama
   has continued with his predecessor's overt and covert operations to
   destabilise the Iranian government. The US government has openly allocated
   funds to cultivate and encourage dissenting local Iranian groups for what
   it calls the promotion of democracy, and allowed its army in neighbouring
   Afghanistan to carry out spying and other subversive activities. Using
   Iran's nuclear programme as an excuse, it has consistently built public
   opinion at home and internationally for military intervention. While the
   European powers are known to be little more than American puppets, even
   Russia and China seem to be oblivious to the dangerous game that the US is
   playing in their neighbourhood. Or have they been co-opted through
   nefarious trade bargains and strategic carrots? They went along with other
   permanent UNSC members in approving the new sanctions.

   It is not incorrect to say that new centres of power are assuming more
   significance, and China and Russia are recognised as two of the most
   important players in the emerging order, but there is little to inspire
   hope that they are interested in anything other than joining the
   exploitative club of old bullies. Do they have the clarity of vision to
   resist corruption by the established poles of the US and Europe or will
   they be satisfied with their piece in the global pie? What the world needs
   today is not just an increase in the number of exploitative poles that use
   the power of money and weapons to have their way, but a new approach
   towards co-existence that respects the diversity of people and their right
   to use their resources for their development.

   In the present instance, Brazil and Turkey stand out as the silver lining
   around the dark clouds of so-called multi-polarity: the only two UNSC
   members who voted against the sanctions. Through their sincere
   peace-building effor ts, they brought Iran round to signing the May 17
   Tehran Declaration, that should have given a boost to diffusing the
   tension around its nuclear programme. Acting in a manner that is
   characteristic of the two-faced American diplomacy, Obama first encouraged
   the leadership of the two countries, at the Nuclear Summit he hosted and
   later in separate letters to Brazilian president Lula and Turkish
   president Erdogan, to talk to Iran, and after they had succeeded in
   bringing Iran round to an agreement that the American president had
   clearly supported, his administration took a somm-ersault and pushed ahead
   with the sanctions. President Lula has now released that lett er for the
   whole world to see the insincerity of the US. It is obvious that the US is
   only interested in raising the temperature, and for that it needs to keep
   the mountain it has created around the mole-hill of Iranian nuclear
   programme intact.

   Again, it is hard not to notice that Iran is being systematically
   isolated. It is being singled out to be punished for a crime that has not
   been established against it. The IAEA has yet to find evidence that Iran
   is developing nuclear weapons. The US, our self-appointed global nuclear
   policeman, on the other hand, is happy to openly dish out vulgar helpings
   to Israel and India of the same goodies that it suspects Iran of having.
   Isn't it strange that when Iran was ruled by the Shah who did what the
   Americans wanted, the US actually helped in setting up of the nuclear
   programme that it now views as a danger to world peace? Is it just a
   coincidence that the last time the US engineered a coup against the
   Iranian government, it was also against a democratically elected regime
   that refused to throw away its precious natural resources to western oil
   companies? Unless, one does not wish to read it, the writing on the wall
   is clear as daylight.

   We live in a sick world with a rotten global architecture that supports
   the perpetuation of power ful interests. What makes it even sicker is the
   ability of the powerful actors, greedy dirty corporations and the
   governments they bring to power and sustain in the 'developed' world, to
   co-opt the challenges to their evil domination. The solution does not lie
   within the perverse pillars that uphold the stench-filled status quo; the
   UN system, World Bank, IMF, WTO and other instruments of global domination
   that have been crafted behind a facade of lofty principles but only work
   to strengthen the stranglehold of established powerful interests. They are
   designed to suffocate efforts to work towards a peaceful and just world.
   They are all part of one exploitative pole.

   Multi-polarity as a concept needs revisiting. Some of the actors being
   dished out as challenging the status quo might just be standing in the
   queue to join the old bullies' club. What is required are new structures
   for operationalising the strength of credible new power centres. We
   already have two to star t with: Brazil and Turkey.

   The writer is a freelance columnist.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The Nation Online in English -- Website
   of a conservative daily, part of the Nawa-i-Waqt publishing group.
   Circulation around 20,000; URL: http://www.nation.com.pk)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   5) Back to Top
   Iran Protests Over Mexico's UN Vote for Sanctions
   Report by Silvia Otero: "Iran Protests Mexico's Vote for Sanctions" - EL
   UNIVERSAL.com.mx
   Monday June 14, 2010 22:04:24 GMT
   The Embassy of Iran issued a statement in which it criticized Mexico for
   having given in to pressures from the United States, even though Iran had
   supported Mexico's candidacy for the (temporary) Security Council seat for
   the 2009-2010 period.

   Resolution 1929 that the Security Council adopted on 9 June prohibits Iran
   from making foreign investments in key areas like uranium mines, and it
   freezes the assets of individuals and businesses with ties to Iran's
   Islamic Revolutionary Guard.

   Iranian ships may be inspected on the high seas, and the new resolution
   prohibits the sale of eight new categories of weapons, as well as of tanks
   and combat aircraft. These are just some of the sanctions.

   The Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran said that "it deeply regrets
   the vote of countries like Mexico, which consider themselves to be
   supporters of peace and human rights. Such countries know perfectly well
   that, in accordance with the Non-Proliferation Treaty, Iran has the right
   to enrich uranium for peaceful uses."

   The Embassy statem ent argued that International Atomic Energy Agency
   reports "have approved (the Iranian nuclear program) on different
   occasions and have said that, in spite of the massive inspections, there
   is no proof for the allegation that Iran's nuclear programs are not
   peaceful."

   The statement thanked the countries that voted against the resolution,
   Turkey and Brazil, "for rejecting the pressure of the US Government and
   displaying the independence of their vote in defense of the rights of the
   Iranian people, and their choice to back the path of diplomacy and
   dialogue."

   (Description of Source: Mexico City EL UNIVERSAL.com.mx in Spanish --
   Website of influential centrist daily; URL http://www.eluniversal.com.mx)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   &lt; a name="t6"&gt;6) Back to Top
   Article Calls For Collective Efforts To Counter US-Western Mindset
   Article by Dr Haider Mehdi: Conflict management - The Nation Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 22:40:11 GMT
   Speaking at the annual White House Correspondents Association dinner,
   Obama mock-threatened the boyband idolised by his daughters with these
   words: "Boys - don't get any ideas. Two words for you: Predator drones.
   You will never see it coming."

   The audience applauded the President's cruel and coarse humour without
   realising that the said remarks in themselves and the appalling response
   was being watched by the world at large as an indicator of a specific
   mindset in how to deal with conflict management by the US political
   establishment and the American public. The implicit message in the
   President's spee ch was that a lethal, quick and debilitating response by
   brutal force to any adversary is the strategic doctrine of the Obama
   administration in face of a conflict situation - deliver the blow first,
   ask questions later!

   Human conduct and behaviour are the mirror image of the internal thought
   process which reflects hidden intentions. Humanity at large has devised
   language and used rhetoric as a concealing strategy to hide intentions.
   Take for example, Obama's rhetorical excess. He came to the American
   presidency with a specific promise of "change" and a commitment to "world
   peace" and "building bridges" with Islamic nations. In reality, what Obama
   has done is to expand the American right-wing ideological doctrine to
   promote worldwide conflicts and to conduct conflict management by military
   force. Obama "expanded the war on terror into North-West Pakistan," wrote
   Pankaj Mishra in the Guardian news recently.

   It is instructiv e to understand the relationship between "time" (as a
   process in the execution of a specific policy) and real "intentions" of
   policymakers in the conducting of conflict management. Obama, and for that
   matter the entire Western political establishment, has been quick in
   delivering military solutions against the Afghan insurgents (though
   absurdly impractical and strategically flawed). On the other hand, the
   Western powers and now Obama's administration have been deliberating
   "timelessly" about giving a fair and just solution to Palestinian issues
   of a homeland after theirs was illegally snatched by the Zionists six
   decades ago. There seems to be no concern, either on a humanitarian basis
   or for political efficaciousness, that a long period of nearly seven
   decades has gone by without giving due justice to the impoverished people
   made homeless by deliberate political intentions plotted in Western
   capitals. Consequently, it is obvious that the longer the "time span" in
   the resolution of a conflict management, the more this process points
   towards hidden and deceitful "intentions" of the major political actors
   involved in perhaps not giving a just and reasonable solution to the
   issue.

   Another vivid example of this long extended "time span" and deceitfully
   concealed political "intentions" in conflict management is India dragging
   its feet on the Kashmir issue. Though over 60 years have gone by, the
   Indian political establishment was still deliberating "on the issues of
   confidence-building measures, economic development, strengthening of ties
   across the Line of Control, good governance and centre-state relations"
   with Srinagar in May 2006. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's two-day
   visit to Kashmir on June 7, 2010, was primarily to discuss with the
   Kashmiri Chief Minister, Omar Abdullah, "the movement forward in the
   dialogue process and how it can be taken to its logical conclusion." The
   question is: what logical conclusion? Isn't it absurd to be still talking
   about "the movement forward in the dialogue process" after over 60 years
   have gone by? Why is India still at the "dialogue process" stage? Doesn't
   it tell us loudly and clearly that India has no intention of resolving the
   Kashmir issue or making a commitment to bow to the demands and to the
   political aspirations of the Kashmiri people? The fact of the matter is
   that India is not planning to let the Kashmiri people decide on their own
   political future and on their own political independence or destiny. The
   long "time span" combined with hidden Indian "intentions" is a testament
   to this ugly political reality. The Kashmiri people are left with only one
   option: continue their struggle for independence in whatever manner and by
   whatever means they have to!

   Compare this deliberate delaying strategy of long "time spans" ;
   intertwined with concealed "intentions" in conflict management with the
   swiftness of political action in a given conflict situation where
   "intentions" are honourable and long "time span" tactics are not used to
   conceal hidden political "intentions" and "agendas".

   Brazil's President Lula da Silva and Turkey's PM Tayyip Erdogan were able
   to hammer out in a mere 18 hours of negotiations with Iran's President
   Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the agreement to resolve and defuse the so-called
   international crisis over Iran's nuclear activities. The agreement makes
   provisions for Iran to transfer 1200kgs of low enriched uranium to Turkey
   within one month and to receive in exchange 120kgs of higher-enriched
   uranium for medical purposes within one year. Case closed, solution found,
   conflict management by good "intentions" and swiftness in "time" put
   together in viable political judgment and simple prompt political acti on.

   Not acceptable (as expected) in Washington, London, and some of America's
   allies who have dismissed the agreement as a "delaying tactic". The
   practitioners of delayed "timeframes" and hidden "intentions" cannot come
   to terms with sophisticated swiftness in diplomatic skills and the search
   for peaceful resolution in an initiative that might change the prevailing
   strategic outlook in global conflict management.

   There is another important side to it: If the Tehran agreement sticks, the
   US and its allies fear that there might be a recognition in the developing
   countries that "rising powers have a stake in sustaining a rules-based
   global order." And that is precisely what the US-Western imperialist
   political establishments cannot imagine contending with.

   Rules-based global order is not an option viewed favourably and positively
   by Washington and its allies in Western European capitals. The sky will
   fall should the l ikes of China, Turkey and Brazil be the flag-bearers of
   a rules-based global order and contribute to the development of a conflict
   management strategy as major political actors. From the western
   perspective, they should simply be "stakeholders" in a system that must
   remain undisputedly controlled by the US and its allies.

   "Seen from Ankara or Brasilia, or indeed from Beijing, there is an
   important snag in this argument. They are not being invited to craft a new
   international order but rather to abide by the old (Western) rules," wrote
   Philip Stephens in the Financial Times recently.

   A rules-based global order - that does not seem to be a prospect in the
   near future!

   Didn't Obama say: "Boys - don't get any ideas. Two words for you: Predator
   drones. You will never see it coming."

   That is the shape of things to come....Unless we, the people around the
   world, collectively put an end to the US-Western mindset!

   Unfor tunately, India has already fallen into that Western way of
   thinking!

   The writer is an academic, political analyst and conflict-resolution
   expert.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The Nation Online in English -- Website
   of a conservative daily, part of the Nawa-i-Waqt publishing group.
   Circulation around 20,000; URL: http://www.nation.com.pk)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   7) Back to Top
   Lebanese Press 14 Jun 10
   The following lists selected items from the Lebanese press on 14 June. To
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735. - Lebanon -- OSC Summary
   Monday Jun e 14, 2010 17:41:37 GMT
   "The battle of the two candidates from the Al-Khayr family in
   Al-Minyah-Al-Duniyah ends with the victory of the Future Movement"

   "The third summit will be held tomorrow (between Lebanon and Syria) amid
   major progress" Al-Akhbar

   :

   "Al-Mabhuh's phantom haunts Israel"

   "Syria-Lebanon: Amending 15 agreements and conventions" Al-Safir:

   "Lebanese-Syrian understanding on amending bilateral agreements; the 11
   billion-controversy is still ongoing"

   "The Future Movement wins in Al-Minyah and its foes progress" Al-Diyar:"

   Future Movement candidate Kazim al-Khayr wins and turnout does not exceed
   34%"

   "Contacts by Lebanon, Syria, and Turkey shielded the cabinet from the
   repercussions of the abstention" Al-Anwar:

   "The Future Movement candidate wins in Al-Minyah-Al-Duniyah&amp;q uot;
   Al-Liwa:"

   The Future Movement settles a difficult battle in Al-Duniyah-Al-Minyah in
   its favor" Coverage in detail 1. Beirut Al-Nahar (Internet Version-WWW) in
   Arabic (Independent, moderate, centrist, and Christian; URL:

   http://www.annahar.com.lb/ http://www.annahar.com.lb

   a. Front-page report saying that the Council of Ministers will convene
   today at the Presidential Palace in order to resume the discussions
   regarding the 2010 draft budget, the completion of which seems to require
   two more sessions at least.According to ministerial sources, President
   Michel Sulayman's visit to Damascus tomorrow is important due to a series
   of foreign and domestic factors, the most important of which is the
   regional mood that requires the preservation of coordination between
   Lebanon and Syria on the highest levels.Sources told Al-Nahar that the
   Syrian-Lebanese summit meeting coincides with a positive development, as
   the joint follow-up committee concluded y esterday the final wording of 15
   bilateral agreements in an atmosphere of mutual understanding.The report
   also says that the Lebanese administrative and technical committee headed
   by Minister of State Jean Ogassapian returned to Beirut, having sought in
   Damascus the final drafts of proposals to develop Lebanese-Syrian
   agreements and suggest new ones.Al-Nahar cites Ogassapian saying that
   "major progress has been made" and predicted that the drafts of many
   agreements will be finalized within two weeks prior to their signing by
   Prime Minister Sa'd al-Hariri during his visit to Damascus. (1,200 words)

   b. Article by Emile Khuri on the summit scheduled to be held tomorrow
   between President Bashar al-Asad and President Sulayman, saying that the
   reassurances President Michel Sulayman and Prime Minister Sa'd al-Hariri
   obtained during their foreign visits and through their foreign contacts
   might not be enough to protect Lebanon from an Israeli act of aggression
   if the se reassurances are not associated with clear reassurances obtained
   from Syria and Iran.Sources say that the Sulayman-Al-Asad summit held in
   Damascus tomorrow will be fruitful, and will be similar to the summit held
   between President Shahab and President Jamal Abd-al-Nasir, who agreed that
   both countries should coordinate foreign and defense policy.The writer
   says that President Al-Asad and President Sulayman should reach an
   agreement on the foreign and defense policy and coordinate any steps they
   would take.The writer asks: Will Lebanon and Syria go together for a war
   or peace talks?Lebanon could go to a war while Syria engages in peace
   talks, as the case is now. (1,400 words)

   c. Article by Rosanna Bu-Munsif citing sources saying that Switzerland is
   putting efforts into grouping representatives of Lebanese politicians in
   order to initiate discussion and dialogue over the controversial issues in
   Lebanon.The writer says that the Swiss ambassador to Lebanon has been ver
   y active since his mandate started in Lebanon.Moreover, efforts were made
   to bring Swiss experts on defense strategy and political pluralism to
   Lebanon in order to discuss with the Lebanese rivals the hot issues.
   (1,200 words) 2. Beirut Al-Akhbar Online in Arabic -- Website of
   Al-Akhbar, a political daily espousing Arab nationalist views,
   pro-resistance, pro-Syria; URL:

   http://www.al-akhbar.com/ www.al-akhbar.com

   a. Front-page report by Muhammad Badir on the assassination of HAMAS
   leader Mahmud al-Mabhuh, saying that, after the decisions made by Britain
   and Australia to deport Mosad operatives operating on their respective
   soils, Israel is concerned that Germany and France might be about to take
   tougher measures, especially following the arrest of a suspect in Mahmud
   al-Mabhuh's assassination in Poland.Der Spiegel said that the arrest of
   the suspect is a new diplomatic plight facing Israel, especially since the
   issue is between two countries that are considered to be among Israel's
   best friends. (1,200 words)

   b. Article by Ily Shalhub headlined: "Iranian Authorization for Al-Asad to
   Name Iraq's Ruler and Protect his Sunnis," saying that it seems that the
   solution to the crisis of forming the Iraqi Government was given to
   President Bashar al-Asad.It was an Iranian authorization that the Turks
   endorsed, and was given to President Bashar al-Asad to name Iraq's ruler
   and protect the Sunnis in it.This happens at a time when the Iraqi parties
   are engaged in a battle of negotiations.The writer says that the picture
   in Baghdad is still foggy and the political rivals are exchanging
   accusations and rumors and are engaged in negotiations that are themselves
   facing a deadlock.But the developments that occurred over the past weeks
   and months were very significant and revealed the strong strategy among
   Iran, Syria, and Turkey.The latter's positions, namely, toward the
   Arab-Israeli conflict, are among the important signs too.The report notes
   that Tehran tasked President Bashar al-Asad with choosing whoever he deems
   appropriate for heading the Iraqi Government.Turkey understood the
   circumstances of this authorization, and endorsed it as well.The writer
   says that it has become clear that Iyad Allawi has become outside the game
   now.He failed to understand that the road to the Iraqi Government passes
   through Al-Najaf.The Iranian complex he suffers from is among the key
   reasons.There is also the fact of the conflicting interests between him
   and his list.For example, he is a Shiite heading a Sunni list.The writer
   says that his new statements on Iran's attempt to assassinate him
   politically and physically reveal that he has nothing to lose now and thus
   he is trying to play the role of a patriotic leader and practicing a
   blackmail policy in a final attempt to attract the missing Iranian
   satisfaction.Sources say that the three parties of the national alliance
   are likely to agree over choosing the coalition' s candidate for the
   premiership.The sources say that the State of Law and the Higher Council
   agreed that the alliance enters the parliament with three candidates, who
   are Al-Maliki, Abd-al-Mahdi, and Al-Ja'fari, whereby the National Assembly
   chooses one of them.The sources however add that such an agreement still
   needs the approval of the Al-Sadr Movement. (2,500 words)

   c. Article by Abd-al-Kafi al-Samad on the by-elections in
   Al-Minyah-Al-Duniyah, saying that the by-elections event might have passed
   calmly, but the Future Movement's decision to back a candidate at the
   expense of another and its rejection of the customs and traditions that
   prevail in this area pushed him to engage in elections that it considers
   fateful.The writer says that the low turnout, which did not exceed 34%,
   compares with 56% in 2009, was not all against the interest of the Future
   Movement, since the final results were in favor of its candidate, Kazim
   al-Khayr, who obtained 20,119 votes.His riv al, Kamal al-Khayr, obtained
   14,097 votes.This means that the candidate running against the Future
   Movement obtained more than 40% of the votes.Sources say that the low
   turnout is attributed to many reasons, including the fact that these are
   by-elections and thus the voters are less enthusiastic.The sources add
   that another reason is the clear flaw in the work of the Future Movement
   electoral machine. (1,500 words)

   d. Article by Ibrahim al-Amin entitled: "Gaza's Blockade: Western (Sides)
   and Agents Are Helping Israel in Beautifying the Killing Machines," saying
   that "the first result of the anti-blockade activities, namely the Freedom
   Flitilla attack, is that the Arab and international cover for the
   Israeli-Egyptian blockade on the Strip has been weakened.What Helen Thomas
   said was an expression of the world's absolute dissatisfaction with Israel
   and its crimes."Al-Amin says that it has become clear now that Israel
   itself is no longer able to brand ish the idea of the blockade.The efforts
   and plans discussed with the United States and Britain and others,
   including the Arab and Palestinian sides, will lead to a new situation
   that will reduce the burden put on the Strip's people, but they will not
   solve the problem.The Palestinian group in Ramallah will claim their
   responsibility for lifting the blockade, while some of them are at the
   heart of the conspiracy against the Gazans.In Egypt, Al-Amin says, they
   want the step of lifting the blockade to be coupled with a political
   settlement that secures their control over the Palestinian file.The writer
   says that the Arab states are still as disloyal as they have always been,
   and what happened during the Arab League meetings reflects the collapse on
   all levels.(1,000 words) 3. Beirut Al-Safir Online in Arabic -- Website of
   Al-Safir, independent and leftist, espousing Arab nationalist views; URL:

   http://www.assafir.com/ www.assafir.com

   a. Front-page report saying t hat Kazim al-Khayr, the Future Movement
   candidate, won in the Al-Minyah-Al-Duniyah by-elections.However, the
   number of votes he won and turnout rate showed an overall regression in
   the Future Movement's popularity.The report notes that the Ministry of
   Finance issued a statement asserting that the "11 billion US Dollars
   expenditure was according to the financial customs in force, including the
   public accounting law and the special law that allowed the
   spending."According to parliamentary sources from the opposition, the
   preliminary reactions reveal that this statement will not put an end to
   the debate over the 11 billion US Dollars, but rather add a new chapter to
   it.According to opposition circles, the statement's timing on the eve of
   the plenary session of the parliament aims to divert attention away from
   former Prime Minister Fuad Siniora's responsibility in this regard and
   channel it toward the Ministry of Finance's statement, thus sparking a
   controversy between deputies on the one hand and, on the other, the said
   ministry and the cabinet.According to the same circles, the statement
   glossed over the fact that "there is no law in the whole world that makes
   allowance for spending frameworks while failing to adopt budgets for four
   years in a row."This amounts to an implicit admission that this
   expenditure was illegitimate.On another note, the report says that the
   Lebanese delegation of the Lebanese-Syrian technical preparatory
   commission in Damascus on Sunday (13 June) requested more time to review
   five agreements on taxation, investor protection, coordination of foreign
   policy, and security and defense coordination.The report cites an
   unidentified source saying that the Lebanese delegation had reservations
   about clauses on security and defense coordination in the agreements.The
   report cites a Syrian source saying that "Damascus supports established
   institutional relations between the two countries."The source adds that
   Syria is ready to accept the amendments desired by the Lebanese. (2,000
   words)

   b. Article by Talal Samlan entitled: "Amr Musa in Gaza To Lift the Turkish
   Blockade?"The writer says that Amr Musa made a big mistake when he went to
   Gaza, not to refute the blockade and lift it, but he went there upon
   American-Israeli-Egyptian approval in order to ease the embarrassment he
   faced in his capacity as the secretary general of the Arab League.The
   timing of his visit was determined by the resounding results of the
   Turkish and universal campaign to rescue the Palestinian people.There was
   a need for an Arab move to absorb the universal anger and popular outrage
   in the aftermath of the Israeli attack on the Freedom Flotilla.Salman
   strongly criticizes Amr Musa and the "impotence" of the Arab League,
   saying that, as usual, Musa spoke a lot to cover for the absence of a
   strong Arab position, supposing that the visit itself is an announcement
   of the end of the blockade.He says that Amr Musa is an expert in this
   regard, as he has been officially tasked with rescuing the Arab regimes
   and the US Administration and the Israeli Government. (900 words)

   c. Article by Sati Nur-al-Din on Turkish-Lebanese relations, saying that
   Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu revealed last week that the
   Turkish prime minister, president, and him, have spent many hours over the
   phone with high-ranking Lebanese officials, discussing how to protect the
   unity of the Lebanese Government after Lebanon abstained from voting on UN
   Resolution 1929.The writer says that this is not the first time contacts
   are made between Ankara and Beirut over the past years.Many announced and
   secret visits have taken place, ever since the Syrian role retreated and
   the Iranian role expanded.But this is the first time when Turkey publicly
   announced that it played such a role and interfered in an issue that seems
   a minor one, but, according to the Turkish prime ministe r, it threatened
   to topple the national unity government if Ankara did not advise the
   government to abstain from voting, contrary to the Turkish desire, which
   was in favor of Lebanon's rejection of UN Resolution 1929.Nur-al-Din adds
   that Turkey did not ask Lebanon to abide by its decision and vote against
   the resolution.This is a rational political position, and the Lebanese
   should be aware enough to avoid dealing with the Turkish role as they did
   with the Syrian, Iranian, Saudi, or Egyptian. (600 words)

   d. Article by Nabil Haytham on the resignations from the Special Tribunal
   for Lebanon, saying that, although the media group of the tribunal tries
   to underestimate the influence of these resignations and their
   repercussions on the structure of the tribunal and the course of the
   international investigation, these resignations raise many questions on
   their circumstances.This leads us to questions on the indictment and the
   facts governing the investigations and the evide nce and proof used.The
   writer says that Daniel Bellemare, given the facts within his hands, is
   unable to issue any indictment against any local or foreign side, and if
   we reach the end of year without any indictment, then the tribunal will be
   unable to obtain funding for the new year, i.e. 2011.Sources thus expect
   Bellemare to say something before the end of this year, so that he secures
   the continuation of his job and that of the tribunal. (1,100 words)

   e. Report on an interview with Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon Ghadanfar
   Roken Abadi by Ammar Na'mah.The ambassador expresses his surprise at
   Lebanon's decision to abstain from voting on UN Security Council
   Resolution 1929.He says that "the solid relations that group us with
   Lebanon, as governments and people, for long years, should have prompted
   (Lebanon) to vote against the sanctions, just as Turkey and Brazil did."He
   also speaks on the possibilities of war and peace in the region, stressing
   that the politic al sanctions imposed on his country replaced a war on it,
   and came to save the face of the US Administration in the aftermath of the
   attack on the Freedom Flotilla.The Iranian ambassador welcomes the
   forthcoming visit by Prime Minister Sa'd al-Hariri to Iran, saying that
   "Iran is a rich country and it can benefit Lebanon in many fields." (1,100
   words; OSC plans to process this report)4

   . Beirut Al-Diyar Online in Arabic -- Website of Al-Diyar, pro-Syria
   political daily; URL

   http://www.addiyaronline.com/ http://www.addiyaronline.com

   a. Report saying that President Michel Sulayman's visit to Damascus
   Tuesday (15 June) constitutes an important event.Sulayman will be
   accompanied by Defense Minister Ilyas al-Murr and Interior Minister Ziyad
   Barud.Sources spoke to Al-Diyar about the contacts that were made prior to
   the adoption of sanctions on Iran, saying: "President Sulayman and Prime
   Minister Sa'd al-Hariri called Syrian officials and the Syr ian answer
   was: 'We are against the sanctions, but you are better judges of your own
   interest.'"According to the sources, Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinezhad
   called his Brazilian and Turkish counterparts and informed them that if
   they abstain from voting, Iran will withdraw the nuclear commission it
   gave Turkey.This prompted Turkey and Brazil to vote against the sanctions
   to protect their diplomatic gains."According to the sources, Turkey
   considers itself responsible for Lebanon's confusion.Hence, it contacted
   Syrian officials in order to keep the domestic consequences of the vote in
   Lebanon in check, thus leading to the alleviation of tension.The report
   cites an Iranian diplomatic source saying that it is unlikely for the
   sanctions to affect Iran.The source warns that any search of an Iranian
   vessel will make matters worse, because the United States knows that Iran
   controls the Strait of Hormuz. (2,000 words)

   b. Article by Hasan Salamah on the regional si tuation amid the blockade
   on Gaza and the sanctions imposed on Iran, saying that many questions are
   raised on whether or not Israel would stage a war on Lebanon and Syria in
   an attempt to escape forward.According to informed political sources, what
   happened in Gaza and the sanctions on Iran will have many repercussions in
   the coming period, particularly with the increasing extremism of Israel's
   leaders.The sources present a number of possible scenarios that are
   expected to see light in the region in the coming months.They say that the
   US attempts to make a breakthrough in the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations
   will fail, and thus the situation will explode in the absence of any
   chances for a settlement.Israel might thus stage an act of aggression on
   Lebanon or Syria or elsewhere.The sources say that the situation that
   prevailed after the Freedom Flotilla attack put more pressure on Israel
   and exposed its violence.Thus, this might also push Israel to stage a war.
   (800 words)

   c. Report by Yasir al-Hariri citing a source saying that, although the
   Finance Ministry released a statement on the issue of the past
   government's expenditures, the opposition ministers still believe that
   there is a need for a detailed discussion and investigation of the issue
   of the expenditure.The sources say that this issue is likely to escalate
   the political situation locally and sharpen the conflict among the
   Lebanese rivals.There are also questions on whether or not the government
   should be changed. (600 words) 5. Beirut Al-Anwar Online in Arabic --
   Website of Al-Anwar, moderate, centrist, and independent daily; URL:

   http://www.alanwar.com/ www.alanwar.com

   Article by Ra'uf Shahuri on the regional and the international crises.The
   writer says that Israel is the main reason behind all the crises of the
   world.He adds that the global financial crisis, the wars in Afghanistan
   and Iraq, the Iranian nuclear program crisis, and the crisis with Turkey
   are all directly or indirectly connected to Israel.The writer says that
   the reason behind all these crises is that Israel does not want to achieve
   peace, and the United States is not able to free itself from the Jewish
   influence on it. (500 words) 6. Beirut Al-Liwa Online in Arabic --Website
   of Al-Liwa, a mainstream Sunni political daily;
   URL:http://www.aliwaa.com.lb

   Report by Hasan Shalhah citing an interview with Minister of
   Communications Sharbil Nahhas.Nahhas talks about the general budget, his
   role and performance during the Council of Ministers' sessions, the
   Lebanese position with regard to imposing sanctions on Iran in the
   Security Council, the Ministry of Communications, and the mobile
   network.(3,000 words)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   8) Back to Top
   Pan-Arab Editor: Sanctions 'Will Hurt' Iranian Regime, 'May' Benefit
   Reformists
   Commentary by Raghidah Dirgham: "Will the Sanctions against Iran Succeed
   in Weakening the Regime?" - Al-Hayah Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 16:54:13 GMT
   Namely, what is being anticipated is the answer to the basic question that
   is splitting politicians and experts: will the sanctions on Iran lead to
   further popular support for the regime and divisions in the opposition in
   the latter's favour?Or will the popular reaction to these sanctions be
   considering them a necessary approach to weaken the regime, in particular
   to break the spine of the Basij and the Revolutionary Guard that dominate
   power in Iran at present?This is the question that will soon be answered
   by the quality and size of the demonstrations that will march on the
   anniversary of the elections, which imposed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as
   president despite its results, and unleashed the uprising inside Iran.The
   tug of war has already started at another level, following the consensus
   of China, Russia, Europe and the United States over the harshest sanctions
   regime yet against Iran, while keeping the door open to Iran to return to
   negotiations and suspend the sanctions.The Iranian leadership has thus
   repeatedly crippled itself in dealing with this issue.This time, it tied
   up its own hands when Ahmadinejad embarrassed Erdogan in the name of
   keeping the Tehran Declaration alive, in order to build on diplomatic
   solutions.As a result, Ahmadinejad has denied himself the capability of
   avenging the sanctions resolution.

   (Description of Source: London Al-Hayah Online in Englsih -- Website of
   influential Saudi-owned London pan-Arab daily.URL:
   http://www.daralhayat.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted b y the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   9) Back to Top
   Syrian Press 14 Jun 10
   The following lists selected items from the Syrian press on 14 June. To
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735. - Syria -- OSC Summary
   Monday June 14, 2010 16:54:14 GMT
   http://tishreen.info/ http://tishreen.info)

   In a 320-word editorial in Tishrin entitled "Israel and the Policy of
   Shuffling the Cards," Chief Editor Samirah al-Masalimah says: "Israeli
   policies on the whole aim to bring a high degree of tension to the region,
   by continuing to conduct military exercises with a certain military and
   intelligence complexity, while highlighting the contents of these
   exercises, and adding to them a batch of fiery statements containing
   explicit threats in all directions."She adds that "Israeli leaders, in the
   framework of this policy, send their messages in all directions through
   their visitors and foreign envoys, in an attempt to shuffle the cards
   between the prospects of war and peace.Obviously, everyone in the region
   and beyond has uncovered the truth of these policies and
   objectives."Al-Masalimah indicates that "Israel is today the only entity
   in the world that deserves punishment in all its forms, factual and
   legal."She concludes by asking: "Are those who still send to Israel
   ammunition and prohibited weapons aware that their fellow citizens in
   particular have been subjected to such weapons in the attack by Israeli
   forces on the Freedom Flotilla?And is the American Administration aware at
   all that the American citizen, Rachel Corrie, was killed by an Israeli
   bulldozer that Israel bought with American money?In a 420-word editorial
   in Al-Thawrah entitled "The 10-Hour Visit," Chief Editor As'ad Abbud
   comments on the visit of Amr Musa to Gaza.He says: "The secretary general
   of the Arab League was in Gaza for 10 long hours. Finally the Arab League
   recognizes the pain of Gaza, and sends its secretary general so he could
   blow on the wound, or maybe the League today fears that the free of the
   world will steal the city from its Arabs!" "The secretary general arrived
   too late," Abbud adds, "but he is the secretary general, and it is the
   Arab League, owner of the largest legacy of decisions dealing with Gaza,
   Jerusalem, Palestine, the occupation, and the issue of war and
   peace.Perhaps it is -- I hope I am not wrong -- the worst institution in
   the world in terms of implementation of its decisions; (but) I do not
   think that Amr Musa is the problem.The problem is in the League...
   (ellipsis as receiv ed), in the Arab decision, that is, if there is Arab
   decision!"Praising Musa for not conforming repeatedly to "the yawning Arab
   decision," and adopting what the Arabs did not adopt, such as announcing
   "the death of the Arab peace initiative and peace," the writer says that
   "this man has a lot on his conscience, which he did say yet."Abbud recalls
   what he wrote in his column just before the flotilla attack, when he said
   the "siege of Gaza is over."Adding to this thought, he says: "All
   indications came in the following days to confirm what we have stated, and
   what was not a prophecy, but, rather, a reading of what is happening.""No
   doubt," he concludes, "that this strengthened our convictions of an
   (imminent) end to the siege of Gaza.And, now that Mr secretary general has
   visited Gaza for 10 hours, this seems crucial (in proving) that the siege
   has ended.In any case, we wish that the secretary general would risk
   everything, so that what he said in Gaza would have the power to be
   translated into fact on the ground." (Description of source: Damascus
   Al-Thawrah Online in Arabic -- Website of the government-owned newspaper;
   URL:

   http://thawra.alwehda.gov.sy/ http://thawra.alwehda.gov.sy)

   In a 355-word economic report in Al-Ba'th entitled "Inflation Rate up to
   5.64 percent in April," Samia Yusuf cites a report by the Central Bank
   saying that the "inflation rate increased significantly during the month
   of April to 5.64 percent, an increase of 0.94 percent compared with March
   levels." "The Central Bank measures inflation through a basket composed of
   a set of goods and services within the national economy, where the overall
   level of the price of this basket is compared in consecutive time periods,
   and this is what is called the inflation rate calculated on an annual
   basis," the report adds.The Central Bank, in its weekly report, confir ms
   the increase of the consumer price index (CPI) in April by 5.64 percent
   compared with the month of April 2009, when the rate of inflation reached
   3.06 percent. (Description of source: Damascus Al-Ba'th Online in Arabic
   -- Website of the newspaper of the ruling Ba'th Party; URL:

   http://www.albaath.news.sy/ http://www.albaath.news.sy) In a 235-word
   commentary in Al-Watan entitled "Misplaced International Sanctions," Ziyad
   Abu-Shawish says: "The UN Security Council, instead of adopting a firm
   decision to condemn the brutal Zionist aggression against the Freedom
   Flotilla (perpetrated) without any legal or moral cover, adopts a
   resolution under Chapter VII for new sanctions against Iran for seeking to
   obtain peaceful nuclear energy, in a legitimate manner, under the
   supervision of the IAEA, and after it had shown evident flexibility in the
   recent (tripartite) agreement with Turkey and Brazil."The writer considers
   that "the Americans used all the ir weight, including financial bribes to
   some major countries, and threats to others, in order to pass this
   resolution in its unfair form."

   He indicates that "everyone knows that Israel possesses nuclear weapons,
   that it pursues enrichment for military purposes, and refuses to sign the
   NPT, and yet the United States refuses to debate its nuclear file,
   providing it with all the requirements of aggression against its
   neighbors; thus, it is natural that countries in the region seek to create
   a balance with Israel.In spite of this, it (the balance) did not
   happen.Added to that, Arab countries and Iran participate in the treaty.Is
   this justice?And can Iran be blamed, if it takes measures and decisions to
   close the file in the face of international interference, while, if it
   rejects the resolution, it will face the prospect of its vessels being
   inspected by force? (Description of source: Damascus Al-Watan Online in
   Arabic -- Website of the independent daily; URL:&lt; br&gt;
   http://www.alwatan.sy/ http://www.alwatan.sy)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   10) Back to Top
   Iraqi Press 14 June 10
   The following lists selected items from the Iraqi press on 14 June. To
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735. - Iraq -- OSC Summary
   Monday June 14, 2010 16:10:48 GMT
   following issues: I. REACTIONS TO RESULTS OF PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

   Tariq al-Sha'b devotes most of page 4 to a report on the lawsuit outgoing
   Parliament Members Mufid al-Jaza'iri and Umar Ali Husayn filed with the
   Federal court on 25 January 2010, complaining about the amendment of
   Parliamentary Election Law No. 16 of 2005. II. CONTACTS TO FORM NEW
   COALITIONS

   Dar al-Salam on 13 June publishes on the front page a 400-word report
   citing Legal Expert Hatif Kazim as warning that if the new parliament's
   first session is turned into an open session, Iraq will suffer from a
   constitutional and political vacuum because the president, prime
   ministers, and ministers, who take the constitutional oath at the new
   parliament, will not be able to carry out their duties in the outgoing
   government.

   Dar al-Salam on 13 June publishes on page 2 a 450-word report citing Iraqi
   Al-Tawafuq Front Spokesman Salim al-Juburi as outlining the results of the
   front's negotiations with the State of Law Coalition in the last few
   days.Al-Juburi says that the front is trying to mediate between the
   coalition and Al-Iraqiyah List to build the national project in the next
   stage.The report cites senior Front Leader Rashid al-Azza wi as saying
   that the front will announce its stand toward the newly formed Iraqi
   National Coalition after it announces its program.

   Dar al-Salam on 13 June publishes on page 2 a 400-word report citing Iraqi
   Al-Tawafuq Front Member Walid Abbud as saying that the front is trying to
   bring the rival winning political forces together in order to quickly form
   the next government.

   Dar al-Salam on 13 June publishes on page 2 a 350-word report citing Iraqi
   Al-Tawafuq Front Member Ala al-Sa'dun as predicting that the new
   parliament's first session that will be held today, 14 June, to be turned
   into an open session and that the newly formed Iraqi National Coalition
   would form the next government.

   Al-Mustaqbal on 13 June publishes on the front page a 450-word report
   entitled "New Parliament Holds First Session Tomorrow; Zafir al-Ani:
   Violating Al-Iraqiyah List's Right by Other Political Forces Endangers
   Democratic Process in Country; Al-Mutlaq: Foreign Pressur e Behind Merger
   of Iraqi National Alliance, State of Law Coalition; Al-Jumayli:
   Al-Iraqiyah List Insists on Its Constitutional Right To Form New
   Government, List's Candidate for Next Prime Minister's Post Iyad Allawi."

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on the front page a 160-word report citing
   Al-Iraqiyah List Speaker Haydar al-Mulla yesterday, 13 June, as saying
   that Kurdistan Coalition Member Fu'ad Ma'sum will preside over the new
   parliament's first session today.Al-Mullah explains that List Member Hasan
   al-Alawi, who is the oldest parliament member, has apologized that he
   could not preside over the session for health reasons.

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on the front page a 1,000-word report citing
   political observers as predicting that the parliament's first session
   today, 14 June, will be turned into an open session until the rival
   parliamentary blocs reach an agreement on the distribution of the senior
   positions in the next government.The report focuses on th e ongoing
   political moves to nominate the next prime minister, president, and
   parliament speaker.

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on the front page a 1,100-word editorial by the
   newspaper's political editor urging the Iraqi people to intensify their
   peaceful movement to pressure the rival winning parliamentary blocs to
   quickly resolve the current political crisis over the formation of the new
   government.The editorial urges the new parliament and political forces to
   put Iraq's national interests before their interests.

   Al-Mu'tamar publishes on the front page a 120-word report citing Haydar
   al-Hurani, senior State of Law Coalition leader, as saying that th e Iraqi
   National Coalition is qualified to form the next government because it is
   the largest parliamentary bloc.

   Al-Mashriq publishes on the front page a 1,200-word report entitled
   "Senior Al-Iraqiyah List Leader: Al-Maliki's Meeting With Allawi
   Successful, List Insists on Its Constitutional Right To Form New
   Government; Parliament To Hold First Session, Parliament Members To Take
   Constitutional Oath."

   Al-Mashriq publishes on page 3 a 1,100-word report by Haydar Hamadah
   entitled "New Parliament To Hold First Session Today 100 Days After
   Elections; Al-Maliki, Allawi to Attend Session."

   Ishraqat al-Sadr on 13 June pu7blishes on the front page a 280-word
   commentary by Adil al-Abid on the meeting that was recently held between
   Nuri al-Maliki, outgoing prime minister and chairman of the State of Law
   Coalition, and Dr Iyad Allawi, chairman of the Al-Iraqiyah List.

   Al-Adalah publishes on the front page a 100-word report citing Basim
   al-Awadi, media adviser to Ammar al-Hakim, chairman of the Iraqi Islamic
   Supreme Council, as saying that the IISC welcomes the meeting between
   Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and Al-Iraqiyah List Chairman Iyad Allawi as
   it will help in speeding up the formation of the next government.

   Al-Adalah publishes on the f ront page a 100-word report citing Iraqi
   Government Spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh as saying that it is too early to
   discuss the distribution of ministries among the political entities.

   Al-Da'wah on 13 June publishes on the front page a 50-word report citing
   former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Ja'fari as calling for a government with
   unlimited powers.

   Al-Da'wah on 13 June publishes on the front page a 100-word report citing
   former Parliament Member Qays al-Amiri as saying that the Al-Iraqiyah List
   suffers from lack of coherence and that it has to respect the merger of
   the Iraqi National Alliance and State of Law Coalition.

   Al-Da'wah publishes on the front page a 60-word report citing Rashid
   al-Azzawi, member of the Iraqi Al-Tawafuq Front, as saying that the front
   has no objection to joining the National Alliance. III. REACTIONS TO
   MERGER BETWEEN STATE OF LAW COALITION AND IRAQI NATIONAL ALLIANCE

   Dar al-Salam on 13 June publishes on the front page a 400-wor d editorial
   by the newspaper's chief editor commenting on the announcement of the
   merger of the Iraqi National Alliance and State of Law Coalition to form
   the largest parliamentary bloc a few days ago.The editorial says that the
   Al-Sharqiyah Satellite Television Channel, which supports Al-Iraqiyah List
   Leader Iyad Allawi, has frequently hosted senior Al-Sadr Trend Leader Baha
   al-A'raji over the past two and a half months to attack outgoing Prime
   Minister Nuri al-Maliki.The editorial says that the Iraqi National
   Alliance has given the Al-Iraqiyah List the impression that it would not
   enter into merger with the State of Law Coalition to form the next
   government.

   Ishraqat al-Sadr on 13 June publishes on the front page a 250-word report
   citing Mahmud Uthman, member of the Kurdistan Coalition, as saying that
   the new coalition between the Iraqi National Alliance and State of Law
   Coalition is aimed at preventing the Al-Iraqiyah List from forming the
   next government. IV.PARLI AMENTARY ELECTIONS

   Ishraqat al-Sadr on 13 June publishes on the front page a 130-word report
   citing President Jalal Talabani as calling for forming a national
   partnership government that must not exclude any bloc from participating
   in it.

   Ishraqat al-Sadr on 13 June publishes on the front page a 180-word report
   citing a legal expert as warning against turning the first parliamentary
   session into an open session since this would lead to a constitutional
   vacuum in the country.

   Ishraqat al-Sadr on 13 June publishes on the front page a 270-word report
   citing Tariq Harb, legal expert and president of the Legal Culture
   Associat ion, as saying that the new parliament members, who assume posts
   in the government, cannot attend the first parliamentary session.

   Al-Sabah publishes on the front page a 370-word report on the first
   parliamentary session that will be held today, 14 June.

   Al-Sabah publishes on the front page a 370-word report citing US Amba
   ssador to Iraq Christopher Hill, during a press conference that was held
   at the US Embassy's headquarters, as saying that Washington will support
   any Iraqi Government that is chosen by the Iraqi Parliament.He added that
   the issue of choosing the new prime minister is an Iraqi internal affair.
   V. POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS AND COMMENTS

   Dar al-Salam on 13 June publishes on the front page a 360-word report
   citing Yahya Abid Mahjub, member of the Ninawah Governorate Council for
   the Iraqi Islamic Party, on 13 June, as warning of the danger of a
   political deal to partition the Ninawah Governorate after the formation of
   the new government.Mahjub criticizes the government for remaining silent
   over the Iranian incursion into the Iraqi territories.

   Dar al-Salam on 13 June publishes on the front page a 360-word report
   citing a Kurdish official as denying the presence of secret agreements
   allowing Iran to shell the border villages in Kurdistan.

   Dar al-Salam on 13 June p ublishes on the front page a 200-word report
   citing Electricity Minister Karim Wahid as saying that the ongoing
   political disputes are negatively affecting the ministry's performance and
   projects.

   Dar al-Salam on 13 June publishes on page 2 a 100-word report citing Ammar
   al-Yusuf, member of the Salah al-Din Governorate Council for the Iraqi
   Islamic Party, as urging the council to quickly elect a new governor and
   council chairman.

   Dar al-Salam on 13 June publishes on page 2 a 260-word report citing Iraqi
   Al-Tawafuq Front Member Amal al-Qadi as attributing the deteriorating
   security situation in the country to its 'occupation' and the interference
   of the neighboring countries.

   Al-Mustaqbal on 13 June publishes on the front page a 350-word report
   citing the newspaper's political editor as criticizing Italy for awarding
   the

   http://www.fondazionebellisario.org/new/eng/premio.html Marisa Bellisario
   Prize to Human Rights Minister Wijdan Mikha'il.

   Al-Mustaqbal on 13 June publishes on page 2 an 800-word report on the
   statement the Iraqiyun Group led by Usamah al-Nujayfi issued expressing
   solidarity with the Kurdish people and condemning the recent Iranian
   incursion and bombardment of the border villages in Kurdistan.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on the front page and on page 2 a 1,200-word
   report citing US Ambassador to Iraq Christopher Hill, during a news
   conference in Baghdad yesterday, 13 June, as saying that he along with
   other foreign ambassadors will attend the parliament's session today.Hill
   denied US interference in the formation of the next government.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on the front page a 200-word report entitled
   "Izzat al-Duri's Aide Arrested in Al-Dur District."

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 5 a 900-word report on the speech
   President Jalal Talabani delivered at the third conference of the
   Patriotic Union of Kurdistan following his election for a second term in
   Al-Sulaymaniyah on 12 June.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 5 a 200-word report entitled "Kurdish
   President Mas'ud Barzani To Visit Paris Today."

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 5 a 200-word report citing Ashti
   Hurami, Kurdish minister of natural resources, as saying that Kurdistan
   can supply Turkey with 15 million cubic meters of natural gas.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 5 a 400-word report entitled
   "Inauguration of Fourth Italian Industries, Technology Fair in Arbil."

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on the front page a 400-word report citing an
   official source at the Interior Ministry as affirming the arrest of Ahmad
   Shihab, former Vice President Izzat al-Duri's aide and leader of the
   Al-Naqshabandiyah Movement in Iraq, in the Al-Dur District in the Salah
   al-Din Governorate.The report cites Baghdad Operations Command Spokesman
   General Qasim Ata yesterday, 13 June, as affirming the arrest of the
   leaders of the Ansar al -Sunnah Organization, who admitted responsibility
   for a large number of crimes against the Iraqi people and security forces.

   Al-Mashriq publishes on the front page a 900-word report entitled "Armed
   Elements Wearing Police Uniforms, Including Suicide Bombers, Break into
   Central Bank; Baghdad Operations Command Closes Baghdad's Streets, Bridges
   for Long Hours; Joint Iraqi Forces Foil Attempt To Break in Bank, Engage
   in Clashes With Insurgent Group."

   Al-Mashriq publishes on the front page a 350-word report citing
   Electricity Ministry Spokesman Ibrahim Zaydan yesterday, 13 June, as
   saying that the ministry will fulfill its previous pledges to reduce the
   number of blackout hours as of tomorrow.

   Al-Mashriq publishes on the front page a 300-word report citing Abid
   Dhiyab al-Ajili, minister of higher education and scientific research, as
   saying that the ministry will announce the results of the admission of
   secondary school graduates at the Iraqi unive rsities on 1 November.

   Al-Alam publishes on the front page and on page 3 a 1,500-word report on
   the mysterious attack on the Central Bank in Baghdad yesterday, 13 June.

   Al-Alam publishes on the front page and on page 3 a 1,200-word report on
   the problem of increasing salinity in the Shatt al-Arab Waterway in the
   Basra Governorate.

   Al-Alam publishes devotes all of page 2 to an interview with Vice
   President Adil Abd-al-Mahdi on the latest developments in Iraq.

   Al-Alam publishes on page 3 a 1,000-word report entitled "Muhammad
   al-Maqdisi's Son Killed in Clashes With US Forces in Mosul; Security
   Official Announces Arrest of Official in Charge of Al-Naqshabandiyah
   Army's Military Wing."

   Al-Manarah on 12 June publishes on page 4 a 450-word report on the issue
   of questioning Wasit Governor Latif Hamad al-Tarfah.

   Ishraqat al-Sadr on 13 June publishes on page 2 a 120-word report citing
   Electricity Minister Karim Wahid as saying that the current political
   disputes are obstructing his ministry's performance.

   Al-Istiqamah devotes all of its pages to reports and articles on the
   seventh anniversary of the martyrdom of Ayatollah Muhammad Baqir al-Hakim,
   brother of Abd-al-Aziz al-Hakim, former chairman of the Iraqi Islamic
   Supreme Council, who was killed upon his return to the country in 2003.

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 2 a 70-word report saying that Foreign Minister
   Hoshyar Zebari held a meeting with the members of the Iraqi Embassy in
   Egypt and discussed with them ways of promoting Iraq's relation with
   Egypt.(OSC plans no further processing)

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 2 a 120-word report saying that Habib al-Sadr,
   new Iraqi ambassador to the Vatican, presented a copy of his credentials
   to the Vatican.

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 2 a 150-word report saying that Prime Minister
   Nuri al-Maliki sent a congratulatory cable to President Jalal Talabani on
   his reelection as secretary gener al of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.

   Al-Adalah publishes on the front page a 300-word report entitled "New
   Parliament Holds First Session Today."

   Al-Adalah publishes on the front page a 120-word report citing Hasan
   al-Sunayd, leader in the National Alliance, as saying that the government
   will continue to hold full power until the new government is formed.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 3 a 120-word report saying that Ammar
   al-Hakim, chairman of the Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council, met with the
   Turkish ambassador in Baghdad and discussed with him the latest
   developments in the political situation in Iraq and the bilateral
   relations between the two countries.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 3 a 300-word report citing Ahmad Anwar,
   parliament member for the Kurdistan Coalition, as saying that Hasan
   al-Alawi, oldest parliament member, has apologized for not being able to
   preside over the first parliamentary session for health reasons and that
   Fu'ad Ma'sum, the leader in the coalition, will preside over the session
   instead.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 3 a 60-word report saying that former Prime
   Minister Ibrahim al-Ja'fari met with Egyptian Consul Hisham Sabri and
   discussed with him the political situation in Iraq and the expected
   support from the Arab countries.

   Al-Mada publishes on page 2 a 200-word report saying that Nuri al-Maliki,
   secretary general of the Islamic Da'wah Party, has sent a congratulatory
   cable to Jalal Talabani on his reelection as secretary general of the
   Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 2 a 200-word report citing Husayn al-Falluji,
   parliament member for the Al-Iraqiyah List, as calling on the Federal
   Court to reconsider its interpretation of Article 67 of the constitution
   about the meaning of the largest parliamentary bloc that will form the
   next government.

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 2 a 200-word report saying that Tariq
   al-Hashimi ended a visit to Turkey during which he met with a number of
   senior Turkish officials.

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 13 June publishes on the front page a 100-word
   report citing Iraqi Government Spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh as saying that the
   regional projects against Iraq have failed while the national project has
   succeeded in the country.

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 13 June publishes on page 2 a 100-word report
   citing Zaynab al-Kinani, member of the Al-Sadr Trend, as saying that the
   trend members will not attend the first parliamentary session if it is
   attended by US Ambassador Christopher Hill.

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 13 June devotes all of page 10 to an interview
   with Mustafa Amin, Kurdish parliament member for the Change List.

   Al-Muwatin on 13 June publishes on the front page a 300-word report citing
   Isam al-Sa'di, member of the National Alliance, as saying that the
   alliance members have agreed to have three deputy prime ministers for the
   next three years, one for security affairs, one for services and a third
   for energy affairs.

   Al-Muwatin on 13 June devotes all of page 6 to a report on the meetings
   Lebanese Journalist Jihad Zayn held with the religious authorities in the
   Al-Najaf Governorate. VI. SECURITY AND MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS

   Dar al-Salam on 13 June publishes on the front page a 200-word report
   citing a security source in the Karbala Governorate as affirming that four
   people, including a woman, were killed and three others were injured in an
   airdrop carried out by joint US and Iraqi forces in the Al-Husayniyah
   Sub-district on 12 June.

   Dar al-Salam on 13 June publishes on page 2 a 240-word report citing a
   security source in Kirkuk as affirming the discovery of two unidentified
   bodies on 11 June.

   Dar al-Salam on 13 June publishes on page 2 a 200-word report entitled
   "Two Civilians Killed, Nine Injured in Roadside Bomb Explosion in Al-Durah
   District in Baghdad."

   Dar al-Salam on 13 June publishes on page 2 a 200-word report entitled
   "Sixty-Four People Killed or Injured in Boobytrapped Car Explosion in
   Tikrit."

   Dar al-Salam on 13 June publishes on page 2 a 200-word report entitled
   "Boobytrapped Car Explosion Targets Checkpoint in Al-Amiriyah District in
   Baghdad."

   Dar al-Salam on 13 June publishes on page 2 a 200-word report entitled
   "Abducted Girl Freed, Two of Her kidnappers arrested in Wasit
   Governorate."

   Al-Mustaqbal on 13 publishes on page 2 a 200-word report ent itled
   "Salaries of Teachers of Elementary Schools Stolen in Al-Muthanna
   Governorate."

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 3 a 900-word report entitled
   "Terrorist Killed in Al-Radwaniyah District; Abducted Girl Freed, Her
   Kidnappers Arrested in Al-Yarmuk District in Baghdad; Flyers Instigating
   Violence Circulated in Ba'qubah; Two Al-Qa'ida Organization Elements
   Arrested in Al-Anbar, Kirkuk Governorates."

   Al-Mu't amar publishes on the front page a 600-word report citing a
   security official as affirming that dozens of Central Bank officials and
   insurgents were killed in the attack on the bank yesterday, 13 June.The
   source says that approximately 25 insurgents wearing military uniforms
   broke into the bank yesterday.

   Al-Manarah on 12 June publishes on page 3 a 240-word report citing Rashid
   Ghadban al-Saray, commander of the third area border guard forces, during
   a press conference, as saying that his forces have managed to stop the
   infiltrations across the Iraqi-Iranian borders.

   Ishraqat al-Sadr on 13 June publishes on the front page a 90-word report
   citing Abd-al-Ilah Kazim, member of the Al-Iraqiyah List, as saying that
   the list will hold a conference in the Basra Governorate to protest the
   continuous Iranian shelling of a number of Kurdish villages on the
   Iraqi-Iranian borders. (OSC plans no further processing)

   Ishraqat al-Sadr on 13 June publishes on page 2 a 20 0-word report citing
   Jalil al-Khayrallah, political adviser of the National Security Council,
   as saying that more than 2,000 prisoners will be released soon.

   Al-Sabah publishes on the front page a 100-word report citing an official
   security source at the Interior Ministry as saying that the security
   forces arrested one of Izzat al-Duri's aides in the Salah-al-Din
   Governorate.

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 4 a 570-word report citing a police source as
   saying that 12 citizens were killed and 40 others were injured in four
   explosions near the building of the Central Bank of Iraq in Baghdad.The
   source added that the security forces foiled an attempt to break into and
   rob the bank.The report also cites Abd-al-Rahim al-Shammari, chairman of
   the Security and Defense Committee at the Ninawah Governorate Council, as
   saying that Ninawah Deputy Governor Faysal Hamidi al-Yawir escaped an
   assassination attempt in the Mosul City.The report also cites the US Army
   in Iraq as sayi ng that a security force killed two persons, wounded two
   and arrested seven others during two security operations in the suburbs of
   the capital.

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 4 a 240-word report citing the Sabaean Mandaean
   Sect as calling on the government to form a security council that will be
   entrusted with the task of protecting the minorities in the country.

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 4 a 190-word report on the statement the Dhi
   Qar Police Directorate issued denying reports that the directorate's staff
   was involved in smuggling drugs to the Al-Anbar Governorate.

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 4 a 100-word report on the statement the
   Ninawah Governorate issued saying that Ninawah Governor Athil al-Nujayfi
   met with the commander of the US forces in Iraq and discussed with him the
   latest political developments in the governorate and the ongoing talks
   between the Al-Hadba and Ninawah Lists to settle the unresolved issues
   between them. (OSC plans no further pro cessing)

   Al-Adalah publishes on the front page a 200-word report citing a source as
   saying that seven terrorists and 16 employees in the Iraqi Central Bank
   were killed and a number of others were injured when terrorists tried to
   raid the bank in the Al-Rashid Street in Baghdad.

   Al-Adalah publishes on the front page a 300-word report citing a source as
   saying that the security forces arrested an aide to Izzat al-Duri, leader
   in the former Iraqi regime, in the Al-Dur District in the Salah-al-Din
   Governorate.The report adds that the security forces arreste d a wanted
   suspect in the Al-Urubah District in the Kirkuk Governorate.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 2 a 50-word report saying that the security
   forces arrested 12 wanted suspects in the Balad District in the
   Salah-al-Din Governorate.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 3 a 250-word report saying that the security
   forces killed two terrorists and arrested seven others during two military
   operations in Baghd ad.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 3 a 400-word report saying that Ninawah
   Governor Athil al-Nuajyfi met with US Forces Commander Raymond Odierno and
   discussed with him the security situation in the governorate.The report
   cites Yahiyah Mahjub, member of the Ninawah Advisory Council for the Iraqi
   Islamic Party, as warning of a potential deal among the political factions
   to divide the governorate into two parts after the formation of the next
   government.

   Al-Mada publishes on the front page a 600-word report on the attempt of
   the Al-Qa'ida Organization to raid the Iraqi Central Bank.

   Al-Mada publishes on page 2 a 300-word report citing Baghdad Operations
   Command Spokesman Qasim Ata as saying that the security forces have
   defeated the Ansar al-Sunnah Army after arresting most of its senior
   leaders.

   Al-Mada publishes on page 4 a 100-word report saying that the Dhi Qar
   Police Command has denied the involvement of its members in smuggling
   drugs.

   Al-Z aman publishes on the front page a 300-word report citing Supreme
   Judicial Council Spokesman Abd-al-Sattar al-Birqdar as saying that a
   committee has been formed to settle the issue of the Iraqi detainees at
   the US camps before they withdraw from Iraq in 2011.

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 2 a 100-word report saying that the security
   forces freed a girl and arrested her kidnappers in the Al-Yarmuk District
   in Baghdad.

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 2 a 120-word report saying that a number of
   tribal chiefs staged a sit-in protest outside the Iranian Consulate in the
   Basra Governorate over the Iranian raids on villages in the Kurdistan
   Region.

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 2 a 120-word report saying that the
   Salah-al-Din Advisory Council has formed four brigades to protect the oil
   pipelines in the governorate.

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 2 a 120-word report citing a source as saying
   that Ninawah Deputy Governor Faysal al-Yawir survived an assassination
   attempt when an explosive device targeting his convoy was detonated.

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 13 June publishes on the front page a 150-word
   report citing a source as saying that there is a plan to assassinate
   Al-Iraqiyah List Chairman Iyad Allawi and that a number of local and
   regional sides are involved in the plot.

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 13 June publishes on page 2 a 200-word report
   citing a source as saying that the Al-Qa'ida Organization has warned the
   displaced families in the eastern side of the governorate not to return to
   their houses, otherwise they would face death.

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 13 June devotes all of page 9 to a report
   entitled "Awaking Councils Members Threaten to Cooperate with Al-Qa'ida
   Organization Again."

   Al-Da'wah on 13 June publishes on page 2 a 60-word report saying that the
   Ukraine will deliver a number of military aircraft to Iraq next summer.
   VII. HEALTH AND HUMAN RIGHTS ISSUES

   Al-Mustaqbal on 13 pu blishes on page 2 a 200-word report entitled
   "Kurdish Clerics Reject Construction of Beer Factories in Kurdistan."

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 4 a 600-word report entitled
   "Construction of 5,000 Residential Units for Journalists in Baghdad."

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 11 a 900-word report by Zaynab
   al-Hasani on the growing popularity of beauty parlours in Baghdad.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 11 a 1,400-word report by Uras Hussam
   on the problems of d ivorced women in Iraq.

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 8 a 1,300-word report on the activities
   of the Iraqi Women's Forum both inside and outside Iraq.

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 8 a 1,300-word report citing female
   vendors as outlining their problems and urging the government to ensure
   their rights.

   Al-Mashriq publishes on page 4 a 340-word report citing an official source
   at the Immigrants and Displaced Persons Ministry yesterday, 13 Ju ne, as
   affirming the allocation of one million Iraqi dinar grants to the Kurdish
   families who sustained damage due to the Iranian and Turkish bombardment
   of the border villages in Kurdistan.

   Al-Mada devotes all of page 9 to an interview with Khulud al-Ma'jun,
   acting minister of the Ministry of State for Women's Affairs.

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 5 a 400-word report entitled "Financial Support
   for Patients with Incurable Diseases in Al-Sulaymaniyah Governorate."

   Al-Da'wah on 13 June publishes on page a 100-word report entitled
   "Establishing Center for Mass Graves in Al-Najaf Governorate." VIII.
   ECONOMIC NEWS AND PUBLIC SERVICES

   Dar al-Salam on 13 June publishes on page 3 a 1,200-word report citing
   owners of fishing ponds in the Kirkuk Governorate as criticizing the
   Agriculture Ministry for refusing to issue licenses for them.The report
   cites Kirkuk Water Resources Director Shihab Hakim Nadir as saying that
   the fishing ponds aff ect the level of underground water.

   Dar al-Salam on 13 June publishes on page 3 a 600-word report entitled
   "Importers, Truck Drivers Complain About New Taxes Imposed by Iraqi
   Ports."

   Al-Mustaqbal on 13 June publishes on page 2 a 300-word report entitled
   "Tikrit University Signs Scientific Agreements With Russian Universities."

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on the front page a 150-word report citing an
   official source at the Baghdad Mayoralty as saying that the mayoralty, in
   coordination with the Baghdad Operations Command, is planning to
   rehabilitate and reopen four main streets to resolve the traffic
   congestion problem in Baghdad.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on the front page a 150-word report citing
   Sami Sabir Ubayd, director of the State Automobiles Trading Company-Basra
   Branch, as outlining the branch's activities.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 4 a 600-word report entitled "New
   Programs, Plans for Developmen t of Oil Industry in Iraq."

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 11 a 1,000-word report on the Al-Zarwa
   Public Park and Zoo in Baghdad.

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on the front page a 300-word report on the
   demonstration the Iraqi Communist Party and civil society organizations
   staged in the Al-Najaf Governorate yesterday, 13 June, to protest the
   recent increase in the price of electricity.

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 2 a 900-word report citing Nazim al-
   Jasur, dean of the Al-Mustansiriyah University's College of Political
   Sciences, as outlining the college's activities, achievements, and
   preparations for the scientific conference that will be held in October.

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 3 a 500-word report citing Maysan
   Governor Muhammad Shiya al-Sudani as affirming that the Al-Shib border
   crossing will be reopened on 16 June, after a five-month closure.

   Tariq al-Sha'b devotes most of page 5 to public complaints.

   Tariq al -Sha'b publishes on page 9 a 600-word report entitled "School
   Curriculum, Political Awareness."

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 9 a 900-word report on the postgraduate
   studies programs in the country.

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 9 a 600-word report on the first
   students' scientific conference the Babil University's College of Fine
   Arts that was held in Al-Hillah last week.

   Al-Mashriq publishes on page 4 a 3 00-word report citing Finance Minister
   Baqir Jabr al-Zubaydi as urging the Arab countries to write off Iraq's
   debts.The report focuses on Al-Zubaydi's participation in the Arab-Turkish
   Forum that was held in Istanbul recently.

   Al-Manarah on 12 June publishes on page 3 a 230-word report citing Dhi Qar
   Governor Talib al-Hasan as calling on the US Reconstruction Team to
   coordinate with the executive and legislative authorities in the country
   in order to solve the problems facing the implementation of the projects
   in the governorate .

   Al-Manarah on 12 June publishes on page 3 a 120-word report citing Dr
   Ra'id Sa'i, chairman of the Maysan Investment Commission, as saying that
   the commission met with a delegation representing a Turkish company and
   discussed with it the investment opportunities that are available in the
   governorate.

   Ishraqat al-Sadr on 13 June publishes on page 2 a 160-word report citing
   former Oil Minister Ibrahim Bahr-al-Ulum as saying that the delay in
   re-establishing the National Oil Company does not serve the plans of
   rehabilitating the Iraqi oil sector.

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 2 a 75-word report saying that Kurdish Prime
   Minister Barham Salih arrived in Britain to participate in the Kurdistan
   Region Investment Conference that will be held in London on 15 June. (OSC
   plans no further processing)

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 2 a 120-word report citing Sinan al-Jalabi,
   Kurdish trade and industry minister, as expecting the trade relations
   between the Kurdistan Region and Turkey to improve in the near
   future.Al-Sabah publishes on page 5 a 120-word report citing an official
   source at the Planning and Development Cooperation Ministry as saying that
   the Central Agency for Standardization and Quality Control has detected
   nine types of construction materials that do not meet the national
   standards.

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 5 a 240-word report citing the media adviser of
   the Public Works and Municipalities Ministry as saying that the minister
   inaugurated two sewage projects in the Karbala Governorate.

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 14 a 500-word report citing an economist as
   commenting on the importance of the tourism sector in rehabilitating the
   Iraqi economy and providing the unemployed persons with a large number of
   job opportunities in the country.

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 14 a 150-word report saying that the Wasit
   Chamber of Commerce organized an economic symposium on the role of the
   Iraqi banks in supporting t he private sector in Iraq.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 2 a 300-word report saying that the Baghdad
   Municipality is cooperating with Baghdad Operations Command to reopen the
   Al-Rashid, Al-Jumhuriyah, Port Sa'id and Al-Chiwadir Streets in Baghdad.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 2 a 200-word report saying that the Ninawah
   Investment Commission has issued a license to an international company to
   build a model city with 1,000 housing units.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 2 a 300-word report citing Baghdad Mayor Sabir
   al-Isawi as saying that the Baghdad Municipality will grant land plots to
   the journalists to build 5,000 housing units in the Al-Karkh and
   Al-Rasafah Districts of Baghdad.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 4 a 300 word report citing Iraqi Government
   Spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh as saying that the cabinet has agreed to exempt a
   Russian company from paying fines for the delay in rehabilitating four
   agricultural aircraft.

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 4 a 300-word report entitled "Citizens
   Voluntarily Return 700 Antiques in Wasit Governorate."

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 4 a 300-word report citing Electricity Minister
   Karim Wahid, during a meeting with members of the Ninawah Advisory
   Council, as saying that the political tension between the political
   entities has led to the deterioration in the services that are provided by
   the ministry.

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 17 a 300-word report entitled "Ninawah Governor
   Discusses with Japanese Embassy Enhancing Economic Relations."

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 13 June publishes on page 4 a 300-word report
   citing Interior Minister Jawad al-Bulani as saying that Iraq's revenues
   from the border crossings reached 500 billion dinars during 2009.

   Al-Da'wah on 13 June devotes half of page 5 to an interview with
   Al-Nu'maniyah District Mayor Majid Jasim Hamad.

   Al-Muwatin on 13 June publishes on page 2 a 120-word report citing former
   Oil Mini ster Ibrahim Bahr-al-Ulum as saying that the delay in forming the
   National Oil Company is not good for the oil sector in Iraq.

   Al-Muwatin on 13 June publishes on page 5 a 200-word report saying that a
   power station with a 750 megawatts capacity will be established in the
   Ninawah Governorate. IX. PRESS COMMENTS

   Dar al-Salam on 13 June publishes on page 2 a 600-word article by Walid
   Abbas entitled "Iraq Without Childhood."

   Dar al-Salam on 13 June publishes on page 3 a 900-word article by the
   newspaper's economic editor entitled "Step Toward Food security," praising
   the Agriculture Ministry's recent decision to ban the import of
   vegetables.

   Dar al-Salam on 13 June publishes on page 4 a 900-word article by Adnan
   al-Juburi criticizing the Iraqi politicians for their poor performance.

   Dar al-Salam on 13 June publishes on page 4 a 900-word article by Yusur
   al-Nu'aymi criticizing the Electricity Ministry for its failure to fulfi
   ll its previous pledges to improve the electricity supplies.

   Dar al-Salam on 13 June publishes on page 4 a 1,000-word commentary
   criticizing the rival political forces for raising the ceiling of their
   demands in preparation for the negotiations on the formation of the next
   government, while ignoring the problems of the Iraqi people.

   Dar al-Salam on 13 June publishes on page 4 a 750-word article by As'ad
   Abd-al-Wahab urging senior Al-Iraqiyah List Leader Hasan al-Alawi, who
   will preside over the new parliament's first session today, 14 June, to
   elect the new speaker and his deputies tomorrow to speed up the formation
   of the next government.

   Al-Mustaqbal on 13 June publishes on page 3 a 900-word article by Abdallah
   Bin Sa'd al-Ubayd entitled "Liberalism Between Secularism,
   Fundamentalism."

   Al-Mustaqbal on 13 June publishes on page 3 a 900-word article by
   Abd-al-Wahab Badrkhan commenting on the first anniversary of US President
   Obama's spee ch in Cairo.

   Al-Mustaqbal on 13 publishes on the back page a 500-word article by Hatim
   Hattab urging the new parliament members to put Iraq's national interests
   before their personal interests.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 2 a 700-word article by Amir al-Hilu
   drawing a comparison between the salaries and privileges of former Iraqi
   and Arab leaders and the current Ira qi leaders.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 3 a 2,700-word report by Fadil
   al-Rubay'i on the growing popularity of Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan in
   the Arab countries.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 3 a 500-word article by Dr Muhammad
   Falfi urging the new parliament members to fulfill their electoral pledges
   and put the interests of the Iraqi people before their personal interests.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 12 a 1,300-word article by Hawwas
   Mahmud entitled "Tyrants: Comprehensive Study on Tyranny in More than One
   Country, Era."

   Al-Sab ah al-Jadid publishes on page 13 a 1,200-word article by Hasan
   Hafiz entitled "Political, Psychological Anxiety."

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 13 a 600-word article by Khalid Ni'mah
   al-Shati criticizing the religious leaders and clerics for remaining
   silent over the Salafi and takfiri ideologies that promote the concept of
   suicide bombing among the young generations.The article strongly
   criticizes some political parties and satellite television channels for
   supporting the insurgent groups, which are responsible for the ongoing
   killings in the country, and giving the impression that Iraq is on the
   verge of a major disaster.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 13 a 500-word article by Rafi Matar
   urging the government to improve the living standards of teachers and
   develop the education sector in the country.

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on the back page a 650-word article by Jum'ah
   al-Halfi commemorating late Iranian Leader Khomeini.

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 5 a 600-word article by the newspaper's
   editor emphasizing the importance of studying the social changes and their
   implications on political life and the economic sector in Iraq in the past
   three decades.

   Tariq al-Sha'b publishes on page 5 a 500-word article by Kifah Muhammad
   Mustafa on the water crisis in the country.

   Al-Mu'tamar publishes on page 8 a 1,000-word article by Dawud al-Basri
   commenting on the recent reports on the Syrian Government's recent plans
   to divert the Tigris River.

   Al-Mu'tamar publishes on page 8 a 900-word article by Dr Nusayyif Jasim
   Muhammad discussing why the Iraqi universities do not conduct applied
   research.

   Al-Mu'tamar publishes on page 8 a 1,100-word article by Sarbast Nabi
   entitled "Political Contribution to Development of Democracy."

   Al-Mu'tamar publishes on page 9 a 1,000-word article by Basim al-Madi
   entitled "Intellectuals, Power in Iraq."

   Al-Ma shriq publishes on page 5 a 700-word article by Rawa Haydar entitled
   "Beggary: Poverty, Government's Failure; Victims Women, Children."

   Al-Mashriq publishes on page 5 an 800-word article by Ala Fadil entitled
   "Drug Addiction, Quick Profit Dream of Unemployed Workers in Iraq."

   Al-Mashriq publishes on page 7 a 1,200-word article by Abd-al-Karim
   al-Wa'ili entitled "Features of Political Radicalism in Iraqi Society
   1921-2003."

   Al-Mashriq publishes on page 7 an 800-word article by Dr Karim Subuh
   commemorating former Prime Minister Fu'ad Arif.

   Al-Mashriq publishes on page 7 a 600-word article by Shamil Abd-al-Qadir
   praising Parliament Member and Scholar Hasan al-Alawi.

   Al-Alam publishes on page 8 a 600-word article by Maytham Lu'aybi
   discussing the advantages and disadvantages of the pricing policy of
   vegetables and other important food items in the local markets.

   Al-Alam publishes on page 11 a 1,700-word arti cle by Haydar Sa'id
   entitled "Civil Society in Iraq, Monitoring of Post-Election Process."

   Al-Alam publishes on page 11 a 900-word article by Sarmad al-Ta'i
   commenting on his interviews with Vice President Adil Abd-al-Mahdi.

   Al-Alam publishes on page 11 a 760-word article by Fadil al-Nashmi
   criticizing the Baghdad Mayoralty and mayor for their frequent statements
   and poor performance.

   Al-Alam publishes on page 11 a 760-word article by Hafal Zakhawi
   commenting on Kurdish President Mas'ud Barzani's recent statements
   describing the situation of the freedom of the press in Kurdistan as
   chaotic.

   Al-Alam publishes on the back page a 600-word article by Ahmad al-Muhanna
   urging the Iraqi leaders to form an efficient government that is able to
   encourage foreign investments to develop Iraq's oil resources.

   Al-Adalah publishes on page 2 a 400-word article by Sa'd Sahib al-Wa'ili
   who calls on the National Alliance to speed up the formation of the
   national partnership government and not give a chance to the factions that
   want to impede the political process in Iraq.

   Al-Adalah publishes on the final page a 300-word article by Hafiz
   al-Bisharah entitled "New Government's 10 Commandments."

   Al-Mada publishes on the final page a 200-word article by Ali Husayn who
   calls on the new parliament to observe the constitutional articles and
   draw up a platform for the government.

   Al-Zaman publishes on page 15 a 700-word article by Iyad Allawi entitled
   "How Can Iraq Support its Fragile Democracy?"

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 13 June publishes on the front page a 250-word
   editorial that criticizes some of the neighboring countries, including
   Saudi Arabia and Iran, for adopting negative stances on Iraq.The writer
   says that these countries failed in their plans to make the political and
   democratic process fail in Iraq, adding that the Iraqis are enlightened
   and strong in confronting th ese attempts.

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 13 June publishes on page 2 a 200-word article
   by Isam al-Bayyati who comments on the difficult conditions that have
   faced the Iraqis since 2003.The writer says that the government has failed
   in solving these crises and dealing with the bad phenomena in the
   government institutions.

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 13 June publishes on page 3 a 300-word article
   by Sattar Jabbar who criticizes the criminals who killed Muhammad Baqir
   al-Hakim, former chairman of the Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council.The writer
   praises the character of Al-Hakim, describing him as an honest man who
   sought Iraq's interests.

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 13 June devotes half of page 3 to an article by
   Kazim Habib entitled "When Will it be Possible to Have Peaceful Handover
   of Power in Iraq?"

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 13 June publishes on page 4 a 350-word article
   by Ahmad Shakir al-Halfi who comments on the difficult situation of the co
   untry since the 1990s and how the people have faced a number of crises.The
   writer proposes a number of suggestions that the government must adopt in
   order to solve Iraq's problems.

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 13 June publishes on page 6 a 200-word article
   by Ghayath Abd-al-Hamid who comments on the electricity crisis facing the
   country and how the people are suffering from the summer heat.The writer
   calls on the Electricity Ministry to solve this problem and provide the
   people with electricity.

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 13 June publishes on page 6 a 450-word article
   by Abdallah Mushkhati entitled "Duties of Parliament."

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 13 June publishes on page 6 a 600-word article
   by Ghazi Ibrahim Rahu who comments on the positive role the Iraqi
   Christians in have played building the country throughout history.The
   writer comments on the difficult conditions of the Christians who are
   being targeted by killing and displacement.The writer calls on the honest
   politicians to protect them and provide them with good living standards.

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 13 June publishes on page 8 a 300-word article
   by Zuhayr Kazim Abbud entitled "What Comes after Endorsement of Winning
   Parliament Members?"

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 13 June pub lishes on page 8 a 700-word article
   by Husayn Ali al-Hamadani who says that three months have passed since the
   elections and yet the politicians have so far failed in forming the
   government and solving the problems of the people.The writer comments on
   the difficult conditions facing the people and how they are suffering from
   a bad security situation, poor public services and poverty.

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 13 June publishes on page 8 a 450-word article
   by Ali Naf'i Hammudi entitled "Citizenship, Democratic Construction."

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 13 June publishes on page 8 a 300-word article
   by Jawad Kazim al-Khalisi who comments o n the important role the media
   outlets have played in Iraq.The writer criticizes some of these outlets
   for negatively affecting the political situation in Iraq while others have
   positively affected it.

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 13 June devotes all of page 12 to an article by
   Abd-al-Sattar Awdah al-Muhannah who critici zes Nazim Kizar, former
   official in the Ba'th Party, describing him as a criminal and bad
   politician who hunted down the communists in Iraq.

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 13 June devotes all of page 16 to an article by
   Ahmad Abd-al-Rahman who discusses the life of the late Muhammad Baqir
   al-Hakim, former chairman of the Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council, describing
   him as an honest man who sought Iraq's interests.

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 13 June publishes on page 17 a 400-word article
   by Ali al-Khayyat who comments on the spread of corruption in the country
   and how the government must confront and eliminate this bad phenomenon.

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 13 June publishes on page 17 a 500-word article
   by Hasan Hatim Madkur who comments on the responsibilities and duties of
   the prime minister, adding that he must be honest and not an agent to
   other countries.The writer says that some of the neighboring countries
   have planned to make the next prime minister implement their agendas in
   order to control Iraq.

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 13 June publishes on page 17 a 700-word article
   by Lua'y al-Khalifah who criticizes the former Iraqi regime that harmed
   both the Iraqi and Kuwaiti people.The writer comments on the negative
   stances of Kuwait toward Iraq and how it has planned to punish the people
   for the crimes that were committed by the former regime.

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 13 June publishes on page 17 a 450-word article
   by Salim Mashkur entitled "Iraq that Arabs Reject."

   Al-Bayyinah al-Jadidah on 13 June publishes on the final page a 120-word
   article by Abd-al-Zahrah al-Bayyati who comments on the negative role some
   of the neighboring countries have played in Iraq and how they support the
   terrorists who have planned to make the democratic process fail in Iraq.

   Al-Da'wah on 13 June publishes on page 3 a 400-word to part one of an
   article by Rasim Qasim entitled "Iraq, Influences of Regional Conflicts."

   Al-Da'wah on 13 June publishes on page 9 a 300-word article by
   Abd-al-Karim al-Wa'ili entitled "Political Parties in Iraq."

   Al-Muwatin on 13 June devotes half of page 12 to an article by Nizar
   Haydar entitled "Solution Lies in Minority Government."

   Al-Muwatin on 13 June publishes on the final page a 150-word article by
   Muhannad al-Layli who comments on the difficult conditions facing the
   Iraqi graduates, adding that most of them are without jobs and face bad
   conditions.The writer says that the ordinary people cannot secure any
   government jobs without having strong connections with officials.

   Al-Muwatin on 13 June publishes on the final page a 200-word article by
   Majid Zaydan who comments on the difficult conditions of the Iraqi people
   and how most of them are suffering from abject poverty while they are
   living in the richest country in the region. X. CORRUPTION

   Al-Sabah al-Jadid publishes on page 2 a 300-word report on the news
   conference Integrity Commission Rahim al-Uqayli held in Baghdad yesterday,
   13 June, to outline the commission's activities and achievements in 2009.

   Al-Mashriq publishes on page 4 a 260-word report on the statement the
   Finance Ministry issued yesterday, 13 June, affirming the referral of
   former Deputy Minister Karim Humud Faraj and a number of senior ministry
   officials to the judiciary for their involvement in corruption cases.

   Al-Sabah publishes on page 4 a 120-word report on the statement the
   Finance Ministry issued saying that it has agreed to refer former Finance
   Ministry Undersecretary Karim Hammud Faraj and a f ormer employee to the
   judiciary for their involvement in administrative corruption.(OSC plans no
   further processing)

   Al-Muwatin on 13 June publishes on page 2 a 100-word report citing Jamal
   al-Battikh, leader in the Al-Iraqiyah List, as saying that his list will
   reveal corruption cases in which Pr ime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's
   government is involved.

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   11) Back to Top
   Turkish Press 14 Jun 10
   The following lists selected items from the Turkish press on 14 Jun; to
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735, or fax (703) 613-5735. For Islamist press highlights, see
   GMP20100614006001. - Turkey -- OSC Summary&lt;/ div&gt;
   Monday June 14, 2010 12:49:22 GMT
   http://www.milliyet.com.tr http://www.milliyet.com.tr )

   Viewing the denial of government officials that Turkey's axis is shifting
   from the West to the East, Hurriyet columnist Ferai Tinc wonders why the
   prime minister's style is getting closer to "the style of the dictator
   leaders of the front opposed to the West" if the intention of the Ankara
   government is "to continue on its path as the trusted ally of the Western
   alliance." Tinc goes on point out the contradiction between the prime
   minister's remarks that someone has to give an account for the widows in
   Iraq and the logic of sending a delegation to the United States to
   convince the US administration that Turkey's axis has not shifted. Drawing
   attention to the futility of cursing and abusing old friends in the
   process of forging new alliances, Tinc concludes her 420-word art icle by
   expressing the view that Turkey is actually not changing its axis but that
   anti-Western speeches are directed toward domestic politics and are being
   delivered because of populist considerations. (Istanbul Hurriyet Online in
   Turkish -- Website of pro-secular, mass-appeal daily, one of country's top
   circulation papers, owned by Dogan Media Group; URL:

   http://www.hurriyet.com.tr http://www.hurriyet.com.tr )

   Revolting against the pride and happiness expressed by the family of a
   19-year-old who was killed during the Israeli flotilla attack in a
   380-word article in Hurriyet, Tufan Turenc argues that the jihad mentality
   can only drag the country into a disaster. Underlining that in this era
   problems are solved through reason and diplomacy and not through jihad,
   Turenc notes that the Palestinian problem cannot be solved by a leader who
   casts aside the problems of his country and aspires to be the leader of
   the Arab world. A policy that equates the destiny of Jerusalem with that
   of Istanbul and the destiny of Gaza with that of Ankara is devoid of
   reason, writes Turenc, arguing that HAMAS's rejection of Ankara's proposal
   to mediate between HAMAS and al-Fatah goes to show how unrealistic
   Ankara's policy is.

   In an 800-word article in Hurriyet Daily News, Cem Oguz examines the
   various reasons for the deterioration in Turkish-Israel i relations,
   arguing that had there been a government other than the AKP in power there
   still would have been a falling out, the only difference being in the
   style and tone of the rhetoric. (processing) (Istanbul Hurriyet Daily
   News.com in English -- Website of Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review,
   pro-secular daily, with English-language versions from other Dogan Media
   Group dailies; URL:

   http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/ http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/ )

   Viewing media reports that Erdogan might intervene for the release of
   Gil'ad Shalit, the Israeli soldier being held hostage by HAMAS, in a
   380-word article in Hurriyet Daily News, Mehmet Ali Birand urges the AKP
   government to use its power over HAMAS and prove that it is a powerful
   actor. (processing)

   In an 870-word article in Hurriyet Daily News, Yusuf Kanli assesses the
   "reverse flotillas" the Israeli ultranationalists are planning to dispatch
   to northern Cyprus and to Turkey. He goes on to refute Israeli claims of
   Turkish hypocrisy regarding the Cyprus invasion, the oppression of the
   Kurdish minority, and the Armenian genocide claims. (processing) Sabah

   carries a 490-word interview Tzipi Livni, former Israeli foreign minister,
   granted to ATV's Bora Bayraktar assessing the current state of
   Turkish-Israeli relations, Turkey's stand on HAMAS, and the embargo on
   Gaza. (processing) (Istanbul Sabah Online in Turkish -- Website of
   pro-government daily owned by Calik Group, close to the ruling Justice and
   Development Party; URL:

   http://sabah.com.tr http://sabah.com.t r )

   Viewing the various assessments made in the United States regarding
   Turkey's recent foreign policy moves in a 530-word article in Sabah, Omer
   Taspinar writes: "The first rule in international relations is to consider
   states as the fundamental actors. Therefore, Turkey, above all, should
   consider how the Obama Administration, in other words the US state, views
   certain issues." When viewed from that angle the situation is not
   encouraging, says Taspinar, adding that the Obama Administration's
   disappointment in Turkey is growing. The problem is not about a shift in
   axis, argues Taspinar, pointing out that key personalities in the Obama
   Administration do not base their assessment on simplified categories such
   as "Islamist" or "pro-Western," but on more realistic perspectives. He
   continues: "In other words, the issue is about ideology but about being
   practical and pragmatic. The situation is not promising because according
   to the assessment made by the Obama Administration serious differences
   have emerged in the national priorities and interests of Turkey and the
   United States." As a result, Taspinar maintains, Washington is shying away
   from a "strategic partnership" with Turkey on various issues and moving
   toward a "transactional" partnership. Explaining this transactional
   partnership to mean "what do you want from us and what kind of a support
   are you willing to extend in exchange," Taspinar asks the following
   question: "Is Turkey ready to enter a transactional relationship on the
   issue of its national interests? Becoming a regional power entails such
   calculations." Vatan

   carries a 2,460-word interview Kamran Inan, one of the doyens of Turkish
   politics, granted to Mine Senocakli. Joining the debate of the shift of
   axis, Inan says that there is no axis left to shift, adding that Turkey
   might be expelled from NATO. Noting that the current foreign relations are
   based on religion and beliefs and not on an axis, Inan underlines: "There
   is no place for ideology and beliefs in foreign relations. There are only
   national interests." Stressing that the duty of a state is primarily to
   defend its national interests and not to become the advocate of others,
   Inan describes the nuclear swap deal concluded with Iran as "not a very
   successful diplomatic victory." Recalling that Iran's biggest economic
   partners, namely Russia and China, were on the side of the United States,
   Inan questions the logic of uniting with Brazil in the swap deal. Inan
   says: "The entire Western world has lost its trust in Turkey as a result
   of the recent incidents. Soon, Turkey's expulsion from NATO might be
   included on the agenda." Assessing that the Turkish Republic has entered
   the most difficult period in its history, Inan states that all the
   principles of its foreign policy have collapsed, adding that Turkey will
   have to pay a heavy price for it. (Istanbul Vatan Online in Turkish --
   Website of pro-secular daily owned by Dogan Media Group; URL:

   http://www.gazetevatan.com http://www.gazetevatan.com ) Taraf

   carries a 2,400-word interview Nese Guzel conducted with Prof. Dogu Ergil,
   a sociologist, social psychologist, and political scientist who has
   written of book about Fethullah Gulen and his movement. During the
   interview, Ergil tries to address the questions of why Gulen felt the need
   to make his recent statements, who were the recipients of his messages,
   why Gulen wants Turkey to maintain good relations with Israel, and whether
   Gulen's statements will affect Turkish foreign policy. He further goes on
   to assess whether the United States and Israel will try and interfere in
   Turkish domestic politics and whether PKK actions will spread to
   metropolitan areas. (processing) (Istanbul Taraf Online in Turkish --
   Website of antimilitarist and liberal daily; URL:

   http://www. taraf.com.tr http://www.taraf.com.tr )

   Egemen Bagis, Turkey's chief EU negotiator and state minister, in a
   500-word article in Radikal writes that the historic steps being taken by
   Turkey in the national and international arena are being reduced to the
   level of a debate on a shift in axis. Referring to claims that Turkey is
   moving away from the West and slipping toward the East, Bagis argues that
   this intentional debate has its source in a mentality that is similar to
   that of the "Cold War," a mentality that views the world along two axes.
   Attesting to the existence of those who have still not freed themselves
   from that old habit both in Turkey and the world, Baris argues that there
   are still sectors both at home and abroad that view the world in line with
   the Cold War mentality, thus interpreting it as "I and the others."
   Underlining that claims of a shift of axis are not innocent, Bagis advises
   those who make these claims to observe Turkey's pos ition in the globe.
   The question should not be whether Turkey's axis is shifting but whether
   the West wants to represent contemporary values or whether it chooses to
   opt for double standards, writes Bagis. (Istanbul Radikal Online in
   Turkish -- Website of pro-secular and liberal daily owned by Dogan Media
   Group; URL:

   http://www.radikal.com.tr http://www.radikal.com.tr ) UN Sanctions Against
   Iran

   Viewing the UN Security Council, UNSC, sanctions against Iran in an
   880-word article in Hurriyet Daily News, Gwynne Dyer writes: "The mountain
   labored for a year and a half and finally gave birth to a mouse." Noting
   that the sanctions will cause Iran no grave inconvenience, Dyer argues
   that this is only fair since the crime of which Iran is accused has not
   been proven either. The writer concludes: "The U.S.-Israeli obsession with
   Iran's alleged nuclear weapons will probably drag on for years, but it is
   ultimately just a distraction from more serious ma tters. The weapons
   aren't real, and neither are the sanctions." (processing)

   Assessing the "no" vote cast by Turkey at the UNSC in a 940-word article
   in Vatan, Can Atakli questions whether this defiance of the world will
   cause serious trouble for Turkey. Atakli writes: "It can be said that
   Turkey is embarking on a big adventure and that we might have to pay a
   heavy price for this. Naturally, as citizens of this country, we wish the
   opposite. One should not also ignore the possibility that Turkey might
   emerge as the 'regional leader' from these developments. However, this is
   a difficult feat." Viewing Turkey's image as a country that on the one
   hand stands by HAMAS, which is desc ribed as a terrorist organization, and
   on the other is supportive of Iran, which is considered to be a threat by
   Western countries, Atakli says that this image is not positive. Atakli
   blames the Greater Middle East Project and the US view that a government
   with a more Islamist image can better promote US interests in the region
   for the current situation. (processing) Kurdish Issue

   According to an 850-word report in Cumhuriyet, the indictment against the
   Assembly of Communities of Kurdistan, KCK, details the organization's
   monetary relations. The report notes that Democratic Society Party, DTP,
   officials who were elected mayors in the last elections donated their
   first two salaries to the organization. (Istanbul Cumhuriyet Online --
   Website of Kemalist daily; URL:

   http://www.cumhuriyet.com http://www.cumhuriyet.com ) HAMAS Outlook on
   Ankara, Cairo

   Viewing Turkey's policy on Iran, Milliyet columnist Semih Idiz writes:
   "The fact that Turkey has been left alone on the issue of Iran might be
   applauded in the streets of the Middle East as an 'honorable stand.'
   However, it is debatable whether this outcome will actually increase
   Turkey's effectiveness in the region. When we look at the issue from the
   viewpoint of Egypt's role in the region and the relations of HAMAS with
   Cairo, the image that emerges is different than that being portrayed in
   Turkey." In a 480-word article, Idiz assesses that HAMAS views Egypt as
   "the big brother of the region" and that it expects Cairo and not Ankara
   to reconcile the Palestinians. Recalling the remarks made by Isma'il
   Haniyah, prime minister of the HAMAS-run government in Gaza, to the effect
   that "no country can play the central role Egypt is playing in the
   Palestinian national cause," Idiz underlines that while Haniyah is
   engaging in real politic, the Justice and Development, AKP, government,
   having abandoned real politic, is acting in line with its ideological
   instincts. Interview With Huseyin Celik

   In a 2000-word interview he granted to Milliyet 's Devrim Sevimay, AKP
   deputy leader Huseyin Celik speaks about the Gaza flotilla incidents, the
   contacts held with the Israeli authorities, Turkey's Middle East polic y,
   Turkey's stand on HAMAS, the US occupation of Iraq, and anti-Semitism in
   Turkey. (processing) Survey on Polarization in Politics and Society
   Radikal

   carries the second 2,000-word installment of a nationwide survey that
   explores the state of polarization in the society. (processing) Gulen
   Statement to New York Times

   Focusing on the statement Fethullah Gulen made to New York Times
   correspondent Brian Knowlton to the effect that "the worst state is better
   than chaos," Milliyet columnist Taha Akyol in a 400-word article writes:
   "This is one of the fundamental principles of the thousand-year Sunni
   political doctrine. It is a principle that legitimizes the current secular
   state authority! This principle is the expression of 'traditional Islam'
   that is incompatible with 'Revolutionary Islam' and even with 'Political
   Islam.'" Explaining that for a state to be legitimate it does not have to
   be 'Islamic,' Akyol continues: "The legitimacy o f the state is dependent
   on its ensuring its security and its general acceptance by the community.
   In classical theory it is strongly advised that the state be just. Today
   values such as 'freedom, equality, democracy' can be added to these
   qualities. The concept of 'the worst state is better than chaos' is true
   both in the traditional and the modern sense; it is the expression of
   lawfulness. The fact that the Gulen movement distances itself from
   confrontation is a positive product of this understanding. Conclusion: The
   'TC State' whose characteristics are written in the Constitution is a
   fully legitimate state; naturally, it should raise its standards of democr
   atization." Interview With Stefan Fule

   Stefan Fule, EU commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighborhood
   Policy, in a 510-word interview he granted to Sabah 's Duygu Leloglu in
   Brussels comments on Turkey's shift in axis, the constitutional amendment
   package, Turkey's stand on Iran, the Israeli attack on the Gaza aid
   flotilla, the recent PKK attacks, and the Cyprus negotiations.
   (processing)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   12) Back to Top
   Editorial Asks Govt To Stop Supporting So-Called War on Terror
   Editorial: Zardari at SCO summit - The Nation Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 22:34:07 GMT
   PLEADING forcefully the case of Pakistan's inclusion in the ranks of the
   Shanghai Cooperation Council as a full-fledged member, President Zardari
   observed at its 10th Summit at Tashkent on Friday that Pakistan was the
   gateway to the landlocked Central Asian States to provide access to them
   to a major part of the world through the shortest route. An easier
   approach could, obviously, facilitate interaction with the outside world
   and promote economic development. Mr Zardari was absolutely right also to
   stress the country's strategic location, and so were his views that
   economic and commercial cooperation among SCO, of which Pakistan was a
   part and parcel, could spell a radical change for the better in the lives
   of people in the region.

   Such cooperation would obviously be more feasible and more result-oriented
   once Pakistan becomes its full-fledged member. The Summit adopted
   guidelines that would make it possible for Pakistan and India, currently
   both observers, to become SCO members, but as a Chinese diplomat attending
   the conference remarked, it is only one percent of the way they have
   covered; Iran would find itself left out because of the iniquitous UNSC
   sanctions. The present membership consists of the CAS, China and Russia.

   A sizeable part of Mr Z ardari's address was devoted to the twin menaces
   of extremism and terrorism and what, in his view, was their root cause.
   Abject poverty could be a contributory factor to the strengthening of the
   forces of terrorism since the poor are more likely to fall to the
   temptation of monetary gain that they would make by joining the ranks of
   terrorists.

   But certainly, the President should know, the roots of terrorism lie
   elsewhere: in the centuries old exploitation of the defenceless,
   resource-rich countries by the imperialist West, and, in the present time,
   the same aggressive exploitation under the pretext of terrorism. Unless
   the root cause of that persistent injustice is removed, which, in simpler
   terms, would mean not only the vacation of aggression from Afghanistan and
   Iraq, but also abandoning the control of resources of weaker states and
   ensuring political and economic justice to the oppressed nations. Osama
   bin Laden, who is accused of setting off the present-day wave of
   terrorism, prompting the US to wage a war against it, specifically pointed
   to the West's exploitation of Arab resources and Israel's brutal ways and
   illegal occupation of Palestine, as his main grievances.

   The Zardari government should be spending more of its energies to convince
   the US to get out of the region and let the forces from within restore
   peace and manage resources. And, as a first step, he should be picking up
   the courage to withdraw its support to the so-called war. The most
   significant outcome for Pakistan would be an automatic unwinding of the
   terrorist coil.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The Nation Online in English -- Website
   of a conservative daily, part of the Nawa-i-Waqt publishing group.
   Circulation around 20,000; URL: http://www.nation.com.pk)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directe d to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   13) Back to Top
   Taleban execute man in Afghan south accused of spying - Afghan Islamic
   Press
   Monday June 14, 2010 16:21:54 GMT
   Text of report by private Pakistan-based Afghan Islamic Press news
   agencyGhazni, 14 June: A man has been executed for spying.Zabol Province
   spokesman said the Taleban executed a man last night (13 June) for
   spying.Zabol Governor's spokesman Mohammadajan Rasulyar told Afghan
   Islamic Press that the Taleban have taken a young man out of his house and
   shot him dead, accusing him of spying for Afghan and foreign forces in the
   localities of Shah Joy District of Zabol Province.He named the deceased
   individual as Asadollah and added he was not spying for the foreign forces
   nor had any links with the Afghan government.He said he as a civilian.The
   Taleban claimed responsibility for Asadollah's killing.A Taleban spokesman
   Qari Mohammad Yosuf Ahamadi also told AIP that they have killed or wounded
   eight police officers in a mine explosion on their vehicle in Barakzo area
   of Qalat city (The provincial capital of Zabol Province).Zabol governor
   spokesman Mohammadajan Rasulyar confirmed that a security company guards
   in Qarabaghio area of Qalat city but said he was unaware of the
   casualties.Rasulyar denied Taleban claims regarding the explosion in
   Barakzio area.(Description of Source: Peshawar Afghan Islamic Press in
   Pashto -- Peshawar Afghan Islamic Press in Pashto -- Peshawar-based
   agency, staffed by Afghans, that describes itself as an independent "news
   agency" but whose history and reporting pattern reveal a perceptible
   pro-Taliban bias; the AIP's founder-director, Mohammad Yaqub Sharafat, has
   long been associated with a mujahidin faction that merged with the
   Taliban's "Islamic Emirate" led by Mullah Omar; subscription required to
   access content; http://www.afghanislamicpress.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   14) Back to Top
   Pakistan Press Nawa-e-Waqt 14 Jun 10
   To request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735. - Nawa-e Waqt
   Monday June 14, 2010 14:55:38 GMT
   pictures on page 1 show Pakistani and Iranian authorities exchanging
   documents of gas pipeline agreement, religious leaders attending meeting
   of nonfunctional, the Muttahida Majlis-e Amal (MMA), and thousands of
   Jama't-ud-Da'wah Pakistan activists attending Jerusalem Rally in
   Lahore.The lower half of the page has a quarter-page advertisement. Lead
   Story: AFP report: Riots in Kyrgyzstan; hundreds of Pakistanis trapped, 15
   held hostage, student killed

   The foreign minister has said that efforts are on for brining back the
   stranded Pakistanis. (pp 1, 9; 600 words) Report on press release:
   Government should take measures for safe return of besieged Pakistanis in
   Kyrgyzstan: Nawaz Sharif (pp 1, 9; 100 words) Report from monitoring desk:
   Meeting on revival of MMA ends inconclusive; Maulana Fazlur Rehman, JUI-F
   (Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazlur Rehman group) chief, faces media attack (pp
   1, 9; 600 words) NNI report: Successful dialogue; Sajid Mir PML-N
   (Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz) senator, congratulates Maulana Fazlur
   Rehman; Jamaat-e-Islami leader Liaquat Baloch says Maulana should tell
   inner story of reconciliation with government (pp 1, 9; 200 words) Report
   by Muhammad Nawaz Raza: Assurance of 'practical measures' given to Maulana
   Fazlur Rehman; deadlock ends; Zardari-Fazlur Rehman meeting likely in next
   few days (pp 1, 9; 500 words) Report from monitoring desk: Iran gives
   final approval for gas pipeline project with Pakistan; agreement formally
   signed; supply to begin in 2014 (pp 1, 9; 300 words) AFP report: Pakistan
   Army rejects report of British educational institution terming it
   malevolent; report says Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) providing
   resources, training, hideouts to Taliban, attends their meetings (pp 1, 9;
   600 words) Report by special correspondent: Jamaat-ud Dawa's defense of
   Jerusalem caravan; mob of people throng Mall Road to express solidarity
   with Palestinian Muslims; Hafiz Saeed says crusade about to yield results;
   conspiracy being hatched to make country barren, target Pakistan's nuclear
   program (pp 1, 9; 600 words) Nawa-e Waqt report: President accepts
   resignation of National Accountability Bureau (NAB) chairman (pp 1, 9; 200
   words) Report by Salman Ghani: PML-N rejects proposed acco untability bill
   by expressing dissatisfaction over it (pp 1, 9; 800 words) NNI report:
   We'll break hand heading toward independence of judiciary: Supreme Court
   Bar President Qazi Anwar (pp 1, 9; 200 words) AFP report: Pakistan
   hesitating in launching operation in North Waziristan: Analysts (pp 1, 9;
   200 words) Report by special correspondent: Baluchi Minister Jaffer George
   detained on charges of brawl, misbehaving with women dismissed (pp 1, 9;
   300 words) Report by special correspondent: Senate elections should
   directly be held: deputy chairman senate Jan Muhammad Jamali; sincere
   efforts needed to make amends for Balochistan's afflictions (pp 1, 9; 300
   words) Report by Salik Majid: If Qaid-e-Azam had been alive, he would not
   have allowed changing name of frontier province on ethnic basis: Ata
   Rabbani (Qaid-e-Azam's ADC) (pp 1, 9; 300 words) Report by special
   correspondent: Protest conferences across country against blasphemous
   caricatures; grandeur of prophet rally held from Punjab Assembly to Data
   Shrine; thousands form Mustafavi (followers of prophet Muhammad) chain (pp
   1, 9; 600 words) Report form news desk: British prime minister narrowly
   escaped Taliban in Afghanistan (pp 1, 9; 100 words) NNI report: President
   Zardari takes notice of lawyers' rowdiness at Superintendent Office (pp 1,
   9; 400 words) Report by special correspondent: Power shortfall increases
   to 1,812 MW; six hour of power shortage continues in rural areas (pp 1, 9;
   200 words) Page 2 : Full Page Advertisement by Town Developer Page 3:
   National, International Reports

   The page 3 three has national and international news. Column by Taiba Zia
   Cheema: Sixth floor

   The column opines that former military dictator Musharraf is under the
   misperception that Pakistan is a failed state without him and the country
   direly needs his services. (1,000 words) Column by Marvi Memon: Do not
   steal from people

   The column criticizes lavishness ensured in budget instead of providi ng
   relief to the common people. (1,200 words) SANA news report: Afghanistan;
   eight security personnel including three NATO soldiers killed in bomb
   blast (pp 3, 10; 100 words) Page 4: News From Suburbs Column by Dr Ajmal
   Niazi: Change to come in weeks

   The column lightly discusses situation in the country and failure of the
   leadership to deliver. (800 words) Page 5: News From Islamabad, Rawalpindi

   Page 5 has a column besides local news and advertisements. Page 6: Special
   Edition on Blood Donor Day Page 7: Classified Ads Page 8: Continuation of
   Reports From Other Pages Page 9: Continuation of Reports From Other Pages
   Page 10: Continuation of Reports From Other Pages Page 11: Sports World
   Page 12: National, International Reports

   Prominent pictures on page 12 show relatives of a youth subjected to
   torture by police protesting in Quetta, and scene of clash between
   demonstrators and Indian forces in Srinagar on the killing of a youth.
   Report by special correspo ndent: Pressures mounts on Fazlur Rehman for
   parting ways with government

   At the meeting of MMA, Sajid Mir has said that if religious parties do not
   unite, the religious alliance should formally be dismantled. (pp 8, 12;
   300 words) Report by special correspondent: Sind home minister directs
   updating lists of highly wanted persons of outlawed organizations (pp 8,
   12; 200 words) Report by Aziz Alvi: Massive investigation into attack on
   NATO containers at Tarnol; assailants fled to Attock; raids being
   conducted to arrested culprits (pp 8, 12; 200 words) Report by special
   correspondent: Qadianis; cannot be called as brethren: Maulana Fazlur
   Rehman (pp 8, 12; 300 words) NNI news report: Khuzdar; shutter down;
   complete blockade in many areas; vehicles torched (pp 8, 12; 200 words)
   Report by special correspondent: Rawalpindi; terrorist arrested on
   blockade; grenade, maps, documents seized (pp 8, 12; 200 words) SANA
   report: Federal budget disappointing: Jamaat-e-Islami (pp 8, 12; 300
   words) NNI report: Most corrupt clique obstacle in way of rule of
   constitution: Imran Khan (pp 8, 12; 300 words) Report by special
   correspondent: Swat, Mohmand Agency; four including three militants killed
   as shell falls; one killed in Miran Shah on charges of spying (pp 8, 12;
   400 words) NNI report: Panjgoor; offices of Pakistan Telecommunication
   Company Limited Cantonment, post office set on fire (pp 8, 12; 100 words)
   Report by special correspondent: Pakistan values its relationship with
   brotherly country Turkey: Law minister (pp 8, 12; 200 words) Report from
   news desk: Pakistan Steel Mills package feared to go waste: General
   (retired) Abdul Qayyum, former chief steel mills (pp 8, 12; 300 words)
   Online report: There will be no confrontation with judiciary; cases
   against president cannot be reopened: Deputy information minister (pp 8,
   12; 200 words) NNI report: There would have been no crisis including
   electricity if Musharraf had been in power: former Minister She r Afgan
   (pp 8, 12; 200 words) Report by special correspondent: Report sent to
   government for giving franchise rights to overseas Pakistanis (pp 8, 12;
   300 words) NNI report: PML-N official opposition; has ruined Punjab; I
   want government to complete tenure so that it may not come to power for 50
   years: former Punjab chief minister Pervez Illahi (pp 8, 12; 300 words)
   Waqt report: Planning should be made for permanent settlement of people
   affected by Lake at alternative place: Chief of Hunza (pp 8, 12; 300
   words) Page 13: Children's Page Page 14: Editorial, Lead Articles

   Page 14 has editorials and articles besides the regular gossip column "By
   the way" and regular series of Islamic teachings from the Koran.It also
   has couplets from Allama Iqbal and Muzaffar Warsi, and a saying of
   Qaid-e-Azam. Editorial: Liberation of Kashmir, Palestine; all Muslim heads
   should take flotilla

   The editorial discusses statement of law minister that the people will
   take Free dom Flotillas to break the Israeli siege.Although the UN General
   Assembly and Security Council had acknowledged the right of
   self-determination for the people of Palestine and Kashmir, these were
   never implemented.Regional and international peace cannot be imagined
   without liberation of Kashmir and Palestine. (1,200 words) Editorial:
   US-India collision and Pakistan's negligence

   The editorial discusses activities of India in Afghanistan and expresses
   fear that Pakistani prisoners in Bagram jail might be used against
   Pakistan.The access of India to Bagram prisoners is clear evidence of
   India-US collision. (400 words) Editorial: Balanced budget of Khyber
   Pakhtoonkhwa Province

   The editorial appreciates the balanced budget presented by the Khyber
   Pakhtoonkhwa Province. (400 words) Article by Dr Hussein Ahmed Piracha:
   Objective Resolution and secular wisdom 1,000 words) Article by Mustafa
   Kamal Pasha: Afghanistan; again a bleeding wound (1,000 words) Article by
   Amira Ahsan: Qallander's talk

   The article criticizes the previous and present rulers for pursuing pro-US
   and pro-Israel policies. (1,000 words) Page 15: Articles

   Page 15 has articles on national and international issues. Article by Prof
   Mohiuddin: Disintegrating US empire in 2020? (last episode) (600 words)
   Article by Syed Nasir Raza Kazmi: Joint agenda of international secret
   agencies against Pakistan (1,000 words) Article by Muhammad Arif Chaudhry:
   Facebook and Dignity of faith (800 words) Page 16: Children's Page

   (Description of Source: Rawalpindi Nawa-e Waqt in Urdu -- Privately owned,
   widely read, conservative Islamic daily, with circulation around
   125,000.Harshly critical of the US and India)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   15) Back to Top
   Malaysian, Singapore Chinese Press 12-14 Jun 10
   The following is a selection of editorials, commentaries, and reports from
   Malaysian and Singapore Chinese press on 12-14 June - Malaysia-Singapore
   -- OSC Summary
   Monday June 14, 2010 14:50:40 GMT
   (Kuala Lumpur China Press in Chinese -- Carries general domestic and
   political news.Along with sister publication Nanyang Siang Pau, it came
   under timber tycoon Tiong Hiew King's media empire in 2007.Per Audit
   Bureau of Circulations data, China Press has a circulation of 231,539.)
   Commentary Says US Military Finds Difficult To Stop Arresting, Bombing
   Terrorist Target in Afghanistan

   A commentary by Liow Lian Chuan in the China Press on 13 June says: "The
   first Afghan National Peace Conference was recently held in the Afghan
   capital Kabul.This conference was attended by 1,600 delegates from
   different tribes and factions.Of note is that at the conference, the
   Karzai government and the Taliban and other rebels hoped that they could
   all lay down their arms and return to society to begin nation-building.One
   of the resolutions passed at the conference is that all parties should
   sever ties with Al-Qai'da terrorist network.They also called on the
   foreign military to display goodwill, but stop bombing and arresting the
   rebels.The fact that the United States has agreed for the Karzai
   government to hold peace talk with the Taliban has reflected the reality
   that the Taliban are indeed a difficult force to beat.But the difficult
   situation faces by the United States is that as long as the rebels
   continue to use force and befriend Al-Qa'ida, there is no way for the US
   military to stop arresting and bombing the insurgent forces in Afghanistan
   or to use the US unmanned aerial vehicles to eliminate the terrorist
   elements in Afghanistan.&amp;quo t;

   (Kuala Lumpur China Press in Chinese -- Carries general domestic and
   political news.Along with sister publication Nanyang Siang Pau, it came
   under timber tycoon Tiong Hiew King's media empire in 2007.Per Audit
   Bureau of Circulations data, China Press has a circulation of 231,539.)
   Editorial Urges Government To Carry Out In-Depth Review on Implementation
   of Fair Transparent Economic Policies

   An editorial in the Nanyang Siang Pau in 14 June says: "Prime Minister
   Najib Razak said that the New Economic Model would not stress on giving
   the Malays the 30 percent quota in equity share but would only help those
   young Malays inspired to achieve success in business.On the same day, Tan
   Sri William Cheng, Associated Chinese Chambers of Commerce and Industry of
   Malaysia (ACCCIM) president, has again point ed out the need for t he
   government to review the existing administrative problems in public
   services.He added that if the policies implemented by the government did
   not benefit those who were really in need, it would only result in
   continuing the past policies by allowing certain people to find economic
   shelters under the government's protection.This would also create a group
   of people good at finding ways and means to reap personal economic
   benefits from the government.Tan Sri William Cheng further added that
   ACCCIM would support the government's New Economic Model on the condition
   that the implementation process of the New Economic Model is transparent
   and fair to all ethnic groups.According to data sourced from China's
   International Contractors Association, China has invested 50 billion
   ringgit (M$) in Indonesia; some major Chinese companies are also
   aggressively investing in Africa.Yet, in retrospect, in the case of
   China-Malaysia trade volume, from 2000 to 2008, the average China's total
   investment in Malaysia was only M$ 0.5billion.Such a vast investment
   figure between Indonesia and Malaysia by Chinese investors should warrant
   in-depth review and reflection on the need for the Malaysian Government to
   implement fair and transparent national economic policies."

   (Petaling Jaya Nanyang Siang Pau in Chinese -- One of Malaysia's oldest
   Chinese dailies.Provides wide coverage of both domestic and international
   news.Per Audit Bureau of Circulations data, Nanyang Siang Pau has a
   circulation of 114,049.It was acquired by timber tycoon Tiong Hiew King in
   2007.Prior to 2007 it was owned by the ruling coalition component party
   Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA).) Editorial Says 10th Malaysia Plan
   Highlights Prime Minister Najib's Cautious Political Consideration

   An editorial in the Guo Ji Shi Bao on 14 June says: "Prime Minister Najib
   has presented his 10th Malaysia Plan in the parliament.The 10th Malaysia
   Plan that covers the period from 2011 to 2015 involves the use of M$ 230
   billion to carry out various projects in order to move Malaysia into a
   high income nation.Nevertheless in a n utshell, the ruling government's
   basic national policy has not changed greatly, particularly in the part
   that under the 10th Malaysia Plan, the government will continue to uphold
   the 30 percent Malay equity share in the next five years.We always heard
   Malaysian national leaders urging the Malays to discard the economic
   crutches provided by the government and be independent.However, such
   statements were easier said than done.In his address, Najib said that the
   government would further increase the participation of bumiputera (Malays)
   in senior management level and that the government would also allocate M$
   3 billion to help the Malay businesses and entrepreneurs through various
   means and programs.In this regard, this 10th Malaysia Plan has highlighted
   the cautious political consideration of Prime Minister Najib."

   (Kuching Guo Ji Shi Bao in Chinese -- Local Chinese daily founded in
   Sarawak in 1968.Together with Berita Petang Sarawak, it is one of the
   subsidiary com panies of Wee Boon Ping Group, which is headed by Chinese
   educator and entrepreneur Wee Kok Tiong.Circulation 21,540; URL:
   http://www.intimes.com.my) Editorial Urges Government To Encourage Foreign
   Investors To Setup Factories in Rural Districts

   An editorial in the Sin Chew Daily on 14 June says: "ACCCIM President Tan
   Sri William Cheng urged the government to encourage foreign investors to
   setup their firms in rural areas.He said that the advantage for foreign
   investors to setup factories in rural towns would include cutting down
   labor cost and promoting local employment opportunities.With the
   government begins to raise the import tax of foreign workers to Malaysia
   next year, the government's encouragement for foreign investors to set up
   their firms in rural area can also help to reverse the flow of workers
   from urban to rural districts.This should help to resolve the problem of
   acute worker shortage faced by foreign investors like those coming from
   Taiwan in urb an cities."

   (Petaling Jaya Sin Chew Daily in Chinese -- Daily with the highest
   circulation in Malaysia.Per Audit Bureau of Circulations data, Sin Chew
   has a circulation of 357,163.Provides broad coverage of domestic political
   issues.Sin Chew came under the control of timber tycoon Tiong Hiew King in
   1988.) Singapore Editorial Says Singapore To Raise Level of
   Counterterrorism Measure

   An editorial in the Lianhe Zaobao on 14 June says: "The Public Transport
   Security Committee will review the overall security of the local public
   transport network over the next six months because of the recent Metro
   Rail Transit (MRT) graffiti incident.Singaporeans are still concerned
   about this issue even though SMRT has issued a statement explaining the
   incident and announced improvements to its security measures.The fact that
   the authorities want to take six months to do a comprehensive review of
   national security reflects that there is a pressing need for Singapore to
   raise the level of its counterterrorism measure.This six-month review of
   the public transport safety should be very different from the past
   counterterrorism measure.In this regard, the authorities should learn from
   the past experience of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Spain
   for these countries had suffered actual terrorist attacks before.It might
   also be good to employ foreign counterterrorism experts to review the
   security systems to ward off possible terrorist attacks after the MRT
   graffiti incident."

   (Singapore Lianhe Zaobao Online in Chinese -- Website of the leading
   Chinese newspaper in Singapore; URL: http://www.zaobao.com.sg) Commentary
   Discusses Reasons for China's Endorsement of UNSC Resolution To Impose
   Sanction on Iran

   A commentary by Xue Li Tai in the Lianhe Zaobao on 14 June says: "The
   reason why China voted in favor of the UNSC resolution to sanction Iran
   are based on the following reasons.First, China wants to cut off the po
   ssibility that the East Turkistan separatists might get 'dirty bombs' from
   Iran.Today, the three forces in Xinjiang (religious extremism, ethnic
   separatist forces, and violent terrorist forces) are very rampant.Second,
   China wants to maintain international nuclear nonproliferation system and
   commitment and to avoid collision with the Western world.Third, China
   wants stability on the Middle East and the Gulf region to maintain its
   steady supply of fuel and gas.Moreover, once Iran has nuclear missiles,
   Iran will include major cities in Europe as its range of nuclear strike.It
   will become the 'Islamic bomb'.When such scenario becomes a reality, the
   United States is bound to resort to use military action on Iran."

   (Singapore Lianhe Zaobao Online in Chinese -- Website of the leading
   Chinese newspaper in Singapore; URL: http://www.zaobao.com.sg)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   16) Back to Top
   Pakistan Daily Flays UK Report Claiming ISI Pulling Strings of Afghan
   Taliban
   Editorial: Pak Targeted Again - The Nation Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 14:48:05 GMT
   EVERY time the US wants to pressure Pakistan or conduct a campaign
   targeting it, the media complies.So just when we in Pakistan became aware
   of the Indo-US plan to use Bagram detainees against Pakistan, the British
   media came up with the same mantra of Pakistan's ISI pulling the strings
   behind the Taliban in Afghanistan.A new twist was given by claiming that
   President Zardari himself if now part of this campaign of covertly
   supporting the Taliban!This is bordering on the bizarre, given how Zardari
   is not only beholden to the US, but has so far done their bidding to the
   detriment of his own citizens- be it acquiescence to the drone attacks, or
   the infiltration of US covert operative in the country or number of the
   concessions made to US demands.Whole details have been concocted in a
   report that defies the imagination and assumes that Pakistan military,
   with whom the ISI is linked, is either mad since it supports the people it
   then has to act against in FATA; or it is totally Machiavellian and will
   readily play a double game so effectively that it can conduct real time
   operations against the Taliban in FATA, while aiding, abetting and
   training them to killing their own soldiers!All this defies logic but then
   logic has never been a US-NATO strong point when dealing with Pakistan.

   Undoubtedly, much will be made of this report relating to the Pakistani
   state's complicity with the Taliban, but what Pakistan should focus on is
   the growing strength of India in Afghanistan, especially in terms of the
   support being given it by the US to aid and abket militnace and terrorirms
   in Pakistan.The report relating to the Bagram detainees being used against
   Pakistan by the Indian and American should alert the Pakistan leadership
   to the growing negative role being played by the US towards
   Pakistan.Clearly as the US-NATO moves increase to have a dialogue with the
   Afghan Taliban, the Indians would like to minimise the role of Pakistan
   despite the fact that without Pakistan's support there can no lasting
   peace in, or viable exit strategy for the US from Afghanistan.However, the
   Indians continue to push the US into supporting their dangerous game in
   Afghanistan theatre.

   The timing of the Taliban-Pakistan nexus, which also cited as LSE report
   by a Harvard scholar, is also interesting because it coincides with this
   Indo-US plan to exploit the Bagram prisoner against Pakistan.There is
   certainly a double game going on here but it being played rather skillf
   ully by the US and India with NATO a compliant partner.Of course, since
   these players are all playing covert games that directly target Pakistan,
   it is s in Pakistan interests to keep all Afghan options open.And it is
   certainly time to realize the harsh truth that the US is against us, not
   with us!

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The Nation Online in English -- Website
   of a conservative daily, part of the Nawa-i-Waqt publishing
   group.Circulation around 20,000; URL: http://www.nation.com.pk)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   17) Back to Top
   Polish Editorial Dubs Tusk's Call for Afghan Withdrawal Political
   'Opportunism'
   Editorial by Piotr Semka: "Electoral Afghanistan&amp;q uot; - rp.pl
   Monday June 14, 2010 14:48:21 GMT
   The PO won the parliamentary election in 2007 with the slogan of
   withdrawing the Polish Army from Iraq. Clearly worried that its candidate
   may lose, the party now has no scruples about making a populist gesture
   intended to preempt Poles' distaste for the Afghan mission, surprising
   everyone in the process. This is because the PO did not, of course,
   consult anyone about its idea. Could it be that the National Security
   Council (RBN), which Sejm Speaker Komorowski has done so much to promote
   as a forum for dialogue, is the right venue for presenting the black box
   recordings from the Tu-154, but not for discussing the issue of our
   troops' withdrawal from Afghanistan?

   It is hard to resist the impression that Poland is moving increasingly
   further away from the concept of special relations with the United States.
   So-called realists will probably point out that it is hard to stand by
   this approach when Barack Obama's administration itself is turning its
   back on Central Europe. This is true, but a country like Poland should
   have its own foreign policy, mapped out for the next 20-30 years, and its
   own tenets. A foreign policy that is capable of enduring a temporary shift
   in our partner's policy in the name of long-term objectives. One of these
   objectives should be to supplement our EU and NATO membership with special
   relations with Washington.

   If, on the other hand, our policies are supposed to respond to every
   ripple in the polls, then they will quickly become grotesque. Of course,
   one could call this grotesqueness realism. We could also focus solely on
   maintaining good relations with Berlin and Moscow, and scale back our
   ambitions to suit the aspirations of small new EU members. The problem,
   however, is how does this accord with the aims of a country that, not so
   long ago, wanted to become one o f the six main players on our continent?

   (Description of Source: Warsaw rp.pl in Polish -- Website of
   Rzeczpospolita, center-right political and economic daily, partly owned by
   state; widely read by political and business elites; paper of record;
   often critical of Civic Platform and sympathetic to Kaczynski brothers;
   URL: http://www.rzeczpospolita.pl)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   18) Back to Top
   Afghan Police Issues 16-31 May 2010
   The following OSC Summary provides a summary of monitored media coverage
   on Afghan police issues in and related to Afghanistan during the period
   16-31 May 2010; for assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at
   1-800-205-8615 or oscinfo@ rccb.osis.gov. - Afghanistan -- OSC Summary
   Monday June 14, 2010 14:46:50 GMT
   Click here to access full PDF report with embedded video link.

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   19) Back to Top
   Taleban commander claim inflicting casualties on foreign forces in Afghan
   east - Afghan Islamic Press
   Monday June 14, 2010 18:44:09 GMT
   Afghan east

   Text of report by private Pakistan-based Afghan Islamic Press news
   agencyJalalabad, 14 June: Taleban have reported destroying a foreign
   forces armoured vehicle.Hajji D awran Safi, A renowned Taleban commander
   in Konar Province told Afghan Islamic Press (AIP) over the telephone that
   the Taleban they destroyed a foreign forces armoured vehicle in a mine
   explosion in Barkandi area of Manogai District of Konar Province late
   today and killed all in the vehicle.Safi was talking to AIP around 08:00
   local time (1530gmt) and said that the victims of the incident were
   airlifted by helicopters. He added "The armored vehicle is still ablaze
   and four helicopters are circling the area."He said the road between
   Asadabad (Provincial capital of Konar Province) and Manogai District was
   shut for a while.(Description of Source: Peshawar Afghan Islamic Press in
   Pashto -- Peshawar Afghan Islamic Press in Pashto -- Peshawar-based
   agency, staffed by Afghans, that describes itself as an independent "news
   agency" but whose history and reporting pattern reveal a perceptible
   pro-Taliban bias; the AIP's founder-director, Mohammad Yaqub Sharafat, ha
   s long been associated with a mujahidin faction that merged with the
   Taliban's "Islamic Emirate" led by Mullah Omar; subscription required to
   access content; http://www.afghanislamicpress.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   20) Back to Top
   Taleban claim inflicting casualties on Afghan, foreign forces in Afghan
   east - Afghan Islamic Press
   Monday June 14, 2010 18:23:06 GMT
   Afghan east

   Text of report by private Pakistan-based Afghan Islamic Press news
   agencyJalalabad, 14 June: There have been fierce clashes in Nangarhar
   Province.There have been heavy clashes in the localities o f Sherzad
   District of Nangarhar Province today (14 June) and the Taleban have
   claimed inflicting heavy casualties on Afghan and foreign forces.A Taleban
   spokesman, Zabihollah Mojahed told Afghan Islamic Press (AIP) that the
   Taleban attacked a foreign forces supply convoy in Gandomak, Mamakhel and
   Hashemkhel area of Sherzad District today (14 June).He added that they
   have captured all security posts in Sherzad District as the result of
   fierce clashes and that they have surrounded the district headquarters.A
   district official who did not want to be named told AIP that there is a
   fierce clash in progress but the police are resisting.Mojahed said they
   have killed at least 13 Afghan national army soldiers and destroyed eight
   ranger type army vehicles. He added that four foreign force armoured
   vehicles have been destroyed and casualties have been inflicted on those
   onboard. He also said that they have captured an Afghan army soldier and
   several ranger type army vehicles.Mojahed sa id they have also sustained
   casualties and that four Taleban fighters have been wounded as the result
   of the attack.Afghan government officials have not yet commented on the
   incident. ISAF press office in Kabul confirmed the incident but rejected
   Taleban's claims regarding the casualties and loses.Local residents
   confirmed the incidents in the area and told AIP that they have seen at
   least eight foreign and Afghan forces vehicles destroyed in Gandomak and
   Hashemkhel areas. They also mentioned government forces casualties and
   bombardment. One local resident told AIP that one of his friends was
   working as a police officer in Sherzad District and came home saying the
   district was captured by the Taleban.There are no reports of civilian
   casualties from the area.It should be mentioned that the area where the
   clash has occurred is located 45kms west of Jalalabad (the provincial
   capital of Nangarhar Province) and the district headquarters of Sherzad
   District is located 55kms west o f Jalalabad.(Description of Source:
   Peshawar Afghan Islamic Press in Pashto -- Peshawar Afghan Islamic Press
   in Pashto -- Peshawar-based agency, staffed by Afghans, that describes
   itself as an independent "news agency" but whose history and reporting
   pattern reveal a perceptible pro-Taliban bias; the AIP's founder-director,
   Mohammad Yaqub Sharafat, has long been associated with a mujahidin faction
   that merged with the Taliban's "Islamic Emirate" led by Mullah Omar;
   subscription required to access content;
   http://www.afghanislamicpress.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   21) Back to Top
   Abbas, Fatah Hold Contacts With HAMAS, Urge Reconciliation To End Gaza
   Sieg e
   Report by Ali al-Salih: "Al-Ahmad to Al-Sharq al-Awsat: 'I Am Personally
   Holding Contacts With HAMAS Leaders in Gaza, West Bank'; Abu-Mazin
   Receives in Amman MP Al-Khudari, Head of Committee Against Siege in Gaza
   Strip, Announces Dispatch of Delegation" - Al-Sharq al-Awsat Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 19:50:20 GMT
   Sources close to Al-Khudari, who is heading the Popular Committee Against
   the Siege in the Gaza Strip and served as minister of technology in the
   10th Palestinian Government that was formed by dismissed Prime Minister
   Isma'il Haniyah, said that, when Al-Khudari heard about Abu-Mazin's
   positive inclinations, he called and requested a meeting. They added that
   Abu-Mazin agreed and a meeting was held in Amman.

   It was Abu-Mazin who asked to meet Al-Khudari in Amman before leaving it
   for Istanbul in Turkey to participate in a forum for Asian cooperation.
   Abbas will then head for Washington to meet with President Barack Obama
   tomorrow. He also plans to meet with a number of the leaders of the
   American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).

   According to the sources, Al-Khudari discussed with Abu-Mazin all the
   disputed issues. They said that clarifications were made regarding many
   issues and there was an expression of willingness to achieve
   reconciliation. They added that there was talk about a way out of the
   crisis. They stated that, yesterday, Al-Khudari left Amman for Cairo on
   his way to Gaza, where he will convey this way out to HAMAS. They said
   that he hopes he will succeed in unwinding the situation. The sources
   refused to reveal the nature of this way out.

   Nevertheless, Azzam al-Ahmad, national relations commissioner at the Fatah
   Central Committee and the official in charge of the negotiations with
   HAMAS, told Al-Sharq al-Awsat that he is personally holding direct
   contacts with HAMAS leaders. He said th at these leaders include HAMAS
   Political Bureau member Mahmud al-Zahhar in Gaza, and Nasir-al-Din
   al-Sha'ir and Samir Abu-Ayshah in the West Bank. He added that these
   contacts are being held on the basis of "go sign" the Egyptian
   reconciliation document. He stated: "We have expressed a willingness to
   take into consideration all the remarks of HAMAS and the other factions
   and agree or reach agreement on them, as HAMAS is suggesting. This is in
   addition to taking these remarks into consideration during
   implementation."

   In an interview with the Turkish NTV television channel, Abu-Mazin said
   that he was going to send a delegation to Gaza to hold reconciliation
   talks with HAMAS. He added: "The best way to retaliate (for the assault)
   is to achieve reconciliation between the Palestinian factions and resist
   Israel hand in hand." He stated: "We have formed a delegation that
   comprises Palestinian officials who will visit Gaza to convince HAMAS of
   the (necessity of achieving) reconciliation." He held on to his condition
   for achieving reconciliation by stressing the need that HAMAS accepts the
   Egyptian document. He expressed the hope that: "we will achieve this goal
   this time."

   For his part, Al-Ahmad said: "We told HAMAS that, if it believes that it
   can lift the siege through ships, then this is an unrealistic notion that
   will not be realized." He added: "However, if we want the Palestinian
   people to benefit from these ships and the state of affairs they have
   created, then reconciliation is a necessity. This is because through
   reconciliation alone will it be possible to lift the siege and change the
   course of political events." He stated: "The (conflict of) interests will
   not allow the United States and Europe to maneuver and will not allow
   those hesitant Arabs to act based on reactions."

   The Fatah official said: "If Freedom Flotilla, for whi ch the close friend
   Turkey is credited, has produced any positive results, then such results
   must not be exploited to achieve organizational gains." He added: "HAMAS
   must understand that such fleets will not lift the siege. Rather, it is
   through reconciliation that the siege can be lifted and a political
   transformation can be brought about in the region." He stated: "Those who
   believe that the siege will be lifted through ships alone are mistaken. No
   real end to the political, security, and economic blockade will be
   realized and no freedom of movement and travel for the residents will be
   achieved except through reconciliation."

   Concerning the rumors about the existence of Turkish mediation efforts to
   achieve reconciliation, Al-Ahmad said: "There was a suggestion to have
   Ankara secretly host talks between the HAMAS and Fatah delegations, in an
   effort to eliminate the differences in positions between the two sides.
   This was in order fo r them to travel to Cairo at a later time and sign
   the Egyptian reconciliation document." He added: "However, this issue has
   been postponed at present."

   (Description of Source: London Al-Sharq al-Awsat Online in Arabic --
   Website of influential London-based pan-Arab Saudi daily; editorial line
   reflects Saudi official stance.URL: http://www.asharqalawsat.com/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   22) Back to Top
   Argentina Political and Economic Issues 12-14 Jun 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Argentina - OSC Summary
   Monday June 14, 2010 14:51:35 GMT
   - Buenos Aires Clarin's Natasha Niebieskikwiat reports on 12 June that in
   his visit to Congress yesterday, to welcome the recent committee approval
   of the Reciprocal Assistance Treaty, which now goes to the floor, Gang
   Zeng, Chinese ambassador to Argentina, reportedly complained about ongoing
   Argentine restrictions on Chinese imports.Meanwhile, Hu Jintao's
   administration is reportedly upset about Argentina's failure to keep its
   promise, made during former President Nestor Kirchner's visit to Beijing
   in 2004, to acknowledge China as a market economy. (Buenos Aires
   Clarin.com in Spanish -- Online version of highest-circulation,
   tabloid-format daily owned by the Clarin media group; generally critical
   of government; URL:

   http://www.clarin.com/ http://www.clarin.com ) China Wants Tensions
   Resolved, Values Relationship

   - Buenos Aires La Nacion reports on 12 June that Gang Zeng spoke in the
   Progress Club and told representa tives of the River Plate University
   Foundation (FURP) that "we have to resolve the tensions, as (the) friendly
   countries that we are.When the volume of interchange in high, and grows,
   it is inevitable for frictions to arise."He added that "in 1972, bilateral
   trade reached $6 million and today, reopening achieved in China and
   democracy restored in Argentina, the bilateral-trade numbers increased
   2,400 times: they reach $14.4 billion."He added that it was important to
   consider that bilateral relations resided not only in the economy and that
   "culturally we are very close: In Argentina 70,000 Chinese live.And there
   are many Argentines learning Chinese.Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Jorge
   Taiana said in Shanghai yesterday that he was convinced that the
   president's upcoming visit to China would be "very successful" and signify
   "a new point of departure to reinforce the strategic relationship, very
   rich politically and commercially, with that Asian nation.He added that
   "it is almost sure" that Cristina Kirchner would include Shanghai in her
   visit to the Asian giant. (Buenos Aires lanacion.com in Spanish -- Website
   of conservative, second highest-circulation daily; generally critical of
   government; URL:

   http://www.lanacion.com.ar/ http://www.lanacion.com.ar ) Kirchner To Visit
   Ecuador

   - Buenos Aires Telam reports at 1355 (1755 GMT) on 13 June that Nestor
   Kirchner, Union of South American Nations (Unasur) secretary general, will
   meet Rafael Correa, pro-tempore Unasur head, in Guayaquil next Tuesday, on
   an invitation made by Correa, according to sources close to the former
   president, during his visit to Buenos Aires for the Bicentenary.Kirchner
   will be accompanied by his advisers Rafael Folonier and Juan Manuel Abal
   Medina, Public Administration secretary in the Office of the Cabinet
   Chief. (Buenos Aires Telam in Spanish -- Official website of
   government-owned news agency; URL:

   http:// www.telam.com.ar/ http://www.telam.com.ar ) National Government
   Denies Suspicious Trust Fund Set Up With Chavez -

   Buenos Aires Clarin reports on 13 June, on its front page and in its
   leading article by Antonio Rossi, that in an attempt to take distance from
   the case investigating parallel diplomacy and alleged bribes in bilateral
   trade with Venezuela, the Planning Ministry, which Julio De Vido heads,
   informed investigating Federal Judge Julian Ercolini in writing last week
   that the trust fund with Venezuela was "never" formally created and that
   Argentine exports were contracted directly by President Chavez's
   administration from different entities and local companies.

   World Cup -"Mission accomplished-" front page shows coach Maradona and
   star

   player Messi embracing after Argentina "overcame the exam of the debut and

   faces classification with optimism" (Pagina/12, 13 June)

   The Post Office has distributed betw een 10,000 and 15,000 set-top boxes

   (STB), "the 'little black machines' that nobody knows how to connect," to

   sectors of fewer resources in Federal Capital and Greater Buenos Aires,
   has

   50,000 deliveries pending, and hopes to have 400,000 distributed in July
   and

   1.2 million in October. The project is part of the launching of the new

   high-definition digital terrestrial TV system. (La Nacion, 14 June)

   Dissident PJ Needs City Mayor To Defeat Kirchnerism

   - Buenos Aires Perfil's Fernando Oz reports on 13 June that according to a
   recent national survey made by US Datamatica on 4,700 interviewees, if the
   presidential elections were today, Nestor Kirchner would have to confront
   Julio Cobos in a runoff.The former president's voter intention is 15% and
   the vice president's 16%.However, if the dissident Justicialist Party (PJ)
   leaders unite, they would accumulate 15% voter intention -former President
   Eduardo Duhalde 6%, Santa Fe Senator Carlos Reutemann 4%, Chubut Governor
   Mario Das Neves 3%, and Deputy Felipe Sola (Buenos Aires) 2%- and could
   upset the present balance between Kirchnerism and a sector of the Radical
   Civic Union (UCR).Once again, as in last year's midterm elections, Macrism
   becomes a decisive factor.Mayor Mauricio Macri's voter intention is 9%: An
   important amount in a probable three-way-parity scenario between
   Kirchnerism, Civic Agreement, and Federal Peronism (PF).The survey
   excluded Deputy Francisco de Narvaez (Buenos Aires) because he may not be
   eligible to run. (Buenos Aires Perfil in Spanish -- Website of centrist,
   critical of Government, newspaper published by Perfil Group.URL:

   http://www.diarioperfil.com/ http://www.diarioperfil.com )

   Datamatica survey: Presidential candidates' voter intention and governors'

   positive images (Perfil, 13 June)

   Kirchner, De Narvaez Head Buenos Aires Surveys

   - Buenos Aires Perfil's Emilia Delfino repo rts on 13 June that according
   to a recent Management &amp;amp; Fit survey, made on 1,200 interviewees in
   Buenos Aires Province, indecision still reigns in the country's most
   important electoral district, but if elections were today, Buenos Aires
   would elect Kirchner president with only 19% of votes; followed by Macri
   (7.8%), De Narvaez 7.7%), and the rest: Duhalde, Cobos, Cristina Kirchner,
   and UCR Deputy Ricardo Alfonsin.Meanwhile, for the gubernatorial election:
   50% is undecided and the other 50% is divided between Governor Daniel
   Scioli and De Narvaez, who polls 2.3% above Scioli.

   Management &amp;amp; Fit survey: National and provincial leaders
   positive/negative

   image (Perfil, 13 June)

   Anti-Kirchnerite Socialism Retains Party Control

   - Buenos Aires Clarin's Lucio Fernandez Moores reports on 14 June that the
   anti-Kirchnerite sector was comfortably leading the Socialist Party (PS)
   internal elections last night. "Our ticket won by over 90% of votes
   nationwide.This election marks the firm decision by the socialists that
   they do not want a party directed by remote control from Olivos," said
   Senator Ruben Giustiniani (Santa Fe), first candidate to the PS National
   Executive Committee for the sector distanced from the government, which is
   headed by Santa Fe Governor Hermes Binner, who is on an official visit to
   Kuwait.Its victory was overwhelming in Federal Capital: 95%.The only
   victory for the Kirchnerite sector was reportedly in Santa Cruz. Alfonsin
   Defeats Cobos for Second Time in Seven Days

   - Buenos Aires Clarin reports on 14 June that Neuquen Mayor Martin
   Farizano, UCR Deputy Ricardo Alfonsin's (Buenos Aires) candidate, defeated
   national Deputy Horacio Quiroga, Cobos's candidate, in the Neuquen
   internal UCR elections yesterday to elect a gubernatorial candidate.
   Former Army Chief of Staff Says 'Not One Bullet Missing'

   - Buenos Aires Clarin reports on 12 June that Martin Balza, ambassador to
   Colombia, testified yesterday in the case investigating armament
   trafficking to Ecuador and Croatia from 1991 to 1995 and said that he
   "never" saw any trafficking, that there was "not one bullet missing" in
   the Army, that he was informed about the existence of Argentine arms in
   Croatia in September 1992, that that information came from Serbian press
   reports, and that he reported it to then Defense Minister Oscar Camilion,
   one of the 17 persons, including former President Menem, indicted in the
   case.Meanwhile, ten heavy cannons are still missing in the Army today.
   Malvinas Veterans Protest Against LAN Chile Flights

   - Buenos Aires La Nacion reports from Rio Gallegos on 13 June that former
   Malvinas (Falkland) veterans, members of the Buenos Aires Civil
   Association of Malvinas Combatants, staged a peculiar protest in the
   airport here yesterday: A LAN Chile plane made a stopover on its flight to
   the islands and they unfurled a bann er, "Glory to th e 649 Heroes of
   Malvinas," threw bombs of sky blue and white smoke at the ends of the
   runway, and called for the immediate suspension of LAN Chile flights to
   Malvinas.This is the same entity that sneaked into the Bicentenary
   military parade and marched in front of the stage.Neither the smoke nor
   the flag, according to LAN Chile sources, affected the normal operation of
   the flight.Meanwhile, the veterans issued a statement condemning the
   installation of an oil rig off the Malvinas and RAF flights from Mount
   Pleasant through Argentine airspace toward Chile.

   Protest (http://www.opisantacruz.com.ar/home/ , 13 June)

   Economic Soybean Exporters Put 'All Expectations' on President's Visit to
   China

   - Buenos Aires La Nacion's Jose Crettaz reports on 12 June that China gave
   another indication this week that commercial tension with Argentina is far
   from ending; it is increasing: In an absolutely unusual decision, it
   purchased at least 80,000 tonnes of US soyb ean oil to partly replace
   what, under normal conditions, it would have acquired in Argentina.Another
   relevant fact is that before making those purchases, the Asian giant
   derogated a phytosanitary requirement that was affecting US-manufactured
   product.China's restriction on Argentine soybean oil is retaliation for
   Argentine trade barriers on entry of about 400 Chinese industrial
   products.Now, after failure to progress in visits to China by negotiators
   Carlos Paz, National Service for Agrifood Health and Quality (Senasa) vice
   president; Secretaries Alfredo Chiaradia (international trade) and Eduardo
   Bianchi's (industry), and Taiana himself, "all expectations" are presently
   on Cristina Kirchner's upcoming visit there.Meanwhile, Argentine exporters
   have managed to place the volume of soybean oil usually purchased for
   China in "third" markets, including India, Egypt, and South Africa, and an
   important official has revealed that the exporters are reaching the C
   hinese market from India. "They are triangulating," he said.Export
   sources, who opted for anonymity, did not confirm or deny, but they did
   say that operations of that type were "practically impossible." Swap
   Enters Final Week: 60% Adherence Targeted

   - Buenos Aires El Cronista's Esteban Rafele reports that the debt swap
   enters its last week today, 54% of bondholders has entered, and road shows
   restart in Japan, Italy, and Switzerland.Finance Secretary Hernan
   Lorenzino and Undersecretary Adrian Cosentino will be in Tokyo tomorrow,
   Milan on Wednesday, and will travel to Rome or Switzerland on Thursday.
   (Buenos Aires El Cronista.com in Spanish -- Website of independent
   newspaper owned by Spain's Recoletos Group, focusing on financial
   information; URL:

   http://www.cronista.com/ http://www.cronista.com ) Government Says May
   Inflation 0.7%; Private Analysts Say From 1% to 1.6%; Gap Closing

   - Buenos Aires La Nacion's Oliver Galak reports on 12 June that due to
   seasonal factors, May is one of the months when inflation is lowest.That
   is the reason why the 0.7% that the National Institute of Statistics and
   Census (Indec) announced yesterday for May does not represent a slowdown
   in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), despite being the lowest rate in the
   last eight months.Measured in year-on-year terms, the accumulated 10.7%
   that the CPI posted, is the highest in the last 44 months: It was 5.3% in
   June 2009.For the Indec, the main drivers were education (3.4%), household
   goods and maintenance (1.3%), and clothing (1.1%).Nevertheless, the 0.7%
   in May is much higher than the 0.3% posted in May 2009.Meanwhile, as
   usual, the "totality" of private analysts reports data considerably higher
   than the official for May: From 1% to 1.6%.However, the gap between
   official and private indexes, which used to be double or more, has
   shortened. Basic Food Basket Increases 20%

   - Buenos Aires La Nacion adds on 12 June that a ccording to the basic
   basket officially announced yesterday, the average family needed 532.21
   pesos ($135.8) and 1,153. 70 pesos ($294.5) in May not to fall below the
   indigence and poverty lines, respectively.These figures are 19.9% and
   15.2% up on May 2009.Independent analysts report that the respective
   figures are 993.50 pesos ($253.6) and 1,881.20 pesos ($480.1). State Oil
   Company Increases Fuel Prices Again

   - Buenos Aires Clarin reports on 13 June that YPF, which has over 50% of
   fuel-market share, has increased prices again: An average of 4%
   nationwide, but up to 6.96% in Federal Capital, where its premium products
   cost 4.529 pesos ($1.15) and 4.079 pesos ($1.22) per liter (0.264 gallons)
   of petrol, Fangio XXI; and diesel, D-Euro; respectively. Meanwhile, sector
   sources say that, without considering these last increases by YPF,
   year-on-year accumulated increases are 34.2% and 28.5% for Premium and
   super petrol, respectively; and 46.9% and 31% for the lowest- and
   highest-priced diesel, respectively. Border dispute over pulp mill
   Environmentalists Could Raise Blockade Temporarily

   - Buenos Aires La Nacion's Marcelo Veneranda reports on 14 June that the
   Gualeguaychu Environmental Assembly agreed last night to vote in a meeting
   next Wednesday, open to all residents, on the possibility of raising the
   highway blockade for 60 days under the condition that the government
   demand environmental control of pulp mill UPM (former Botnia) inside the
   plant.Meanwhile, there was a climate of "euphoria" in the government
   yesterday with the possibility that the blockade could be lifted and the
   possibility is "not" being ruled out in Uruguay that President Jose Mujica
   could accept in-plant control if that raised the blockade. Clarin's
   Leonardo Mindez adds that this is the first time in "42 months" that the
   environmentalists will analyze the possibility of raising the blockade.

   Material in the World News Connect ion is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   23) Back to Top
   Egyptian Press 14 Jun 10
   The following lists selected items from the Egyptian press on 14 June. To
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735. - Egypt -- OSC Summary
   Monday June 14, 2010 09:55:58 GMT
   http://www.ahram.org.eg/ http://www.ahram.org.eg/

   1. Article by Chief Editor Usamah Saraya refutes Israeli press reports
   that Abu-Mazin is opposed to lifting the blockade on Gaza, because this
   can consolidate HAMAS's position, and that Egypt supports that position.
   The writer stresses that Israel's evasive attempts to avo id paying the
   price for its crimes will not work and that it has to admit the crime, end
   the siege and refrain from taking advantage of Palestinian discord to
   perpetuate the occupation. He says HAMAS should not use Amr Musa's visit
   to consecrate dissention and that Musa should have taken Arab
   sensitivities into account and that he should have dedicated his time to
   ending Palestinian discord. He pays tribute to the Turkish position and
   Erdogan's emphasis that Turkey backs the Egyptian role in conciliation.
   (pp 1, 5; 1,500 words; processing)

   2. Article by Abd-al-Mu'ti Ahmad states that Amr Musa's visit to Gaza did
   not come in reaction to the Israeli attack on the aid flotilla. The visit
   does not consecrate the idea of two states in Gaza and the West Bank, and
   will not legitimize the deposed government in Gaza, the writer stresses.
   (p 6; 600 words)

   3. Article by Makram Muhammad Ahmad stresses that the Bar Association and
   the judicial establishment have to reexamin e the rules governing the
   professional behavior of their members. (p 10; 550 words)

   4. Article by Abd-al-Azim Hammad regrets that developments in the past two
   weeks revealed that the "chronic ailments of the Egyptian political elite"
   have not been cured and that there is no hope of curing them in the near
   future. The writer reiterates that the opposition is "too weak to lead an
   organized current to push democratization ahead on the basis of collective
   involvement." He says Muslim Brothers failed to respond to the
   prerequisites of political rationalization in terms of democracy, national
   unity and national security and that all others engaged in "personal"
   disputes. He finds it clear that Mubarak's chairmanship of the NDP guarded
   the party's stability and unity and protected it from inner disputes. To
   turn into a real democracy, Egypt does not lack thought. It lacks
   democratic and peaceful organizational means, the writer says. (p 10; 1,20
   0 words)

   5. Editorial stresses that differences are natural between the various
   segments of the society and that peaceful dialogue is the right way to
   resolve these differences. (p 11; 300 words)

   6. Article by Muhammad Uthman stresses that Egypt and Turkey complete each
   other and that they are not in competition. (p 11; 300 words)

   7. Article by Board Chairman Dr Abd-al-Mun'im Sa'id says the NDP's
   overwhelming victory in Consultative Council elections reveals a high
   degree of support for the NDP as much as it reveals a "defect in the
   political system". The writer points to "disconcerting signs" in the
   political scene, where "liberal groups throw themselves in the embrace of
   fascist and autocratic groups", thinking that the Muslim Brothers truly
   want a civil and democratic state. He also points to a state of confusion,
   where the three major powers overlap and the judicial power meddles in the
   jurisdiction of the legislative an d executive powers. (p 11; 2,000 words)

   Cairo Al-Akhbar --state-owned daily; root URL:

   http://www.elakhbar.org.eg http://www.elakhbar.org.eg

   1. Article by Chief Editor Muhammad Barakat stresses that nobody has the
   right to use the power invested in him to attack or insult anybody else
   and that all are equal in the eyes of the law. The writer trusts that
   judges and lawyers will have the wisdom to safeguard each other's dignity
   and esteem. (pp 1, 5; 900 words)

   2. Report says Egypt filed a complaint with the International
   Telecommunication Union over jamming Nilesat transmission during the
   opening of the world cup. (p 1; 20 words)

   3. Editorial states that Amr Musa's "historic visit to Gaza" came by an
   Arab foreign ministers' decision to break the siege and bring about
   inter-Palestinian conciliation. (p 6; 250 words)

   4. Article by Nabil Zaki attributes US success in wrestling the approval
   of 12 UN Security Council members of a resolution imposing further
   sanctions on Iran to the "numerous mistakes of the Iranian leadership,"
   including its attempts to fan sectarianism, its continued occupation of
   the three UAE islands, its backing of Hizballah and HAMAS, Ahmadinezhad's
   statements about obliterating Israel from the face of the earth, among
   other reasons. (p 18; 1,800 words)

   Cairo Al-Jumhuriyah -- state-owned daily; root URL:

   http://www.gom.net.eg http://www.gom.net.eg

   1. Article by Chief Editor Muhammad Ali Ibrahim is surprised that a group
   of Egyptian youth are protesting in front of the Ministry of the Interior
   to demand the people involved in the death of a "junky" brought to trial,
   especially after forensic reports confirmed that the diseased died after
   he swallowed a "joint". (p 3; 1,000 words)

   2. Editorial says Amr Musa broke the siege on Gaza carrying an Arab
   resolution. (p 8; 120 words)

   3. Report cites Usamah al-Shaykh, chairma n of the Radio and Television
   Union, as he welcomes Al-Jazirah's open broadcast of the world cup
   matches. This spares the Egyptian citizen the burden of descrambling the
   code, he says. Al-Shaykh says the Egyptian television covered the charges
   of airing world cup matches from state subsidy and commercials.
   Al-Jazirah's decision to air the matches on the open channel sought to
   deprive us of the revenues of commercials on earth channels, al-Shaykh
   says. The contract has a penalty stipulation in that regard and we will
   bring them to account for it, he adds. He further explains that commercial
   revenues go to FIFA and to the soccer union. He is surprised that
   Al-Jazirah accused Nilesat of jamming transmission. It is unreasonable for
   Nilesat to harm itself, he stresses. He accused Al-Jazirah if trying to
   tarnish the image of Nilesat in favor of Arabsat. (p 16; 550 words)

   4. Article by Samir Rajab says Amr Musa's visit to Gaza reflects his
   courage and his determination to sa ve what could be saved regardless of
   whether or not he stays in his post. If Musa succeeds in reaching a
   formula to end the dispute between HAMAS and Fatah, the road will be paved
   for lifting or easing the siege on Gaza, the writer says. He is critical
   of the statement of Salah al-Bardawil, who described demands to sign
   conciliation as political blackmail. (p 20; 700 words)

   Cairo Al-Wafd -- opposition New Wafd Party daily; root URL:

   http://www.alwafd.org http://www.alwafd.org

   1. Article by Muhammad Shirdi says the "dispute" between the Egyptian
   television and Al-Jazirah is all about the expected revenues of
   commercials. (p 16; 550 words)

   2. Article by Dr Amr al-Shubaki runs a comparison between Egypt and Turkey
   in terms of their modernization experience. He believes that Turkey was
   ahead of Egypt because of its legal and political system that allowed it
   to move on to a democratic system where respect for the law represented
   the starting point. He also stresses that success at the domestic level
   paves the way for success at the outside level. (p 16; 1,400 words)

   Cairo Nahdat Misr --Independent daily; root URL:

   http://www.gn4nahdetmisr.com http://www.gn4nahdetmisr.com

   1. Report says the first round of negotiations in which the parliament
   speaker and Ahmad Izz acted as middlemen to resolve the differences
   between lawyers and the judiciary has failed. The head of the judges club
   refused to sit with the chairman of the Bar Association. (p 1; 600 words)

   2. Report cites Isam al-Uryan as he reacts to a news analysis by
   Researcher Husam Tammam, in which he said the Muslim Brothers were using
   ElBaradei to market them internationally. Al-Uryan denied that Muslim
   Brothers are using ElBaradei as an international tool of pressure to
   promote their political program in the United States. He denies that the
   group will lead the Egyptian Society for Change. The group is just an
   ordinary member of t he society and will not seek to lead it, al-Uryan
   says. (p 1; 200 words; processing)

   3. Report by Wala Abd-al-Karim examines the phenomenon of the "Chinese
   invasion of Egyptian markets" by smuggled goods and growing reliance on
   Chinese labor. (p 5; 1,500 words)

   Cairo Al-Misri Al-Yawm --Yawm--Independent daily focusing on domestic
   issues

   1. Report on the escalating crisis between lawyers and the judiciary. (p
   1; 450 words)

   2. Report by Mahmud Jawish and Adil al-Darjali cites informed sources on a
   three-hour meeting in the house of former ambassador Ibrahim Yusri between
   the general guide of the Muslim Brotherhood and a large number of
   politicians. The meeting discussed domestic affairs and chance s of
   coordination between the society's active powers. It was agreed to hold
   similar meetings regularly, the report says. (p 1; 400 words)

   3. Report says the security forces banned a demonstration in front of the
   Ministry of Interior to de mand bringing to trial those who were behind
   the death of a young man in Alexandria. (p 1; 400 words)

   4. Report says Egypt filed an official complaint with the International
   Telecommunications Union over jamming of Nilesat transmission during the
   airing of world cup opening events. The audience was surprised when
   Al-Jazirah aired the match between Nigeria and Argentina on its open
   channel despite the fact that the Egyptian television had bought the
   match. The Egyptian television is said to have lost millions of pounds
   because of jamming. The head of the Egyptian Radio and Television Union is
   cited as saying ERTU is examining legal procedures against Al-Jazirah for
   violating the contract and for airing the matches on its open channels
   although a large number of people had already paid subscription fees.
   "Refunds can cost ERTU big losses, because it obtained commission from
   audience subscriptions and made great efforts to collect those
   subscriptions," al-Shayk h is cited as saying. The executive director of
   the Consumer Protection Apparatus is cited as saying subscribers are not
   entitled to take legal measures against or demand compensations from
   Al-Jazirah, because airing matches on open channels constituted no
   violation of contracts. He suspects that a "third party" might be
   responsible for jamming transmission. (p 4; 900 words)

   5. Article by Muhammad Habib examines the "obstacles" standing in the way
   of renaissance. He says rigging in Consultative Council elections
   represented a scandalous and disgraceful act that harmed Egypt and its
   people and made us look ridiculous before the world. He views violations
   of human rights as another obstacle standing in the way of the nation's
   rise. (p 6; 2,200 words)

   6. Article by Dr Yahya al-Jamal examines the future prospects of a Middle
   East settlement in light of the latest developments, especially the attack
   on the aid flotilla. The writer believes that f uture prospects depend on
   our vigilance and our preparedness to take advantage of the opportunity
   Israel presented to us with its stupidity and vanity. (p 17; 1,600 words)

   Cairo Al-Dustur -- Independent anti-regime daily newspaper

   1. Second part of interview with Dr Muhammad ElBaradei by Chief Editor
   Ibrahim Isa. ElBaradei says the Egyptian people must realize that they
   have a responsibility. He says he is ready to lead the experience,
   provided that the people rally round him. He says the only way to bring
   about change is to stand up and say what one thinks. He thinks change can
   come overnight if the necessary constitutional amendments are made. He
   does not think that his international obligations stand in the way of his
   work in E gypt. He states that he is not a professional politician and
   that he returned to Egypt as an ordinary citizen. He says the regime does
   not apply democratic methods and that one has to use unconventional
   methods with the regime, such a s addressing youth via the Internet,
   because youth are eager to bring about change. He says he is willing to
   respond to an invitation to meet with the president and discuss his
   vision. (p 7; 3,500 words)

   Cairo Rose Al-Yusuf --State-run daily newspaper

   1. Article by Abd-al-Qadir Shuhayb finds it natural of Iran's leaders to
   avoid showing their weakness before the United States after the Security
   Council imposed further sanctions on Iran. The writer expects sanctions to
   reflect negatively on Iran. (p 2; 700 words)

   2. Report by Intisar al-Ghitani examines the impact of Al-Jazirah's
   measure of opening its scrambled channels to air world cup matches on the
   Egyptian television's revenues from commercials. (p 19; 1,400 words)

   3. Article by Board Chairman Karam Jabr wonders when Egypt will have a
   "new government" that does not take the side of corrupt businessmen or
   spend a holiday on the beach as the people boil with frustration. The
   writer won ders why the minister of justice has not intervened to
   disengage lawyers and judges. (p 20; 1,000 words)

   4. Article by Chief Editor Abdallah Kamal says "unbridled media"
   deliberately destroy morale, spread frustration and work against the
   interest of the society. How can the country rise in such a climate and
   how can we fight in the event of war if the domestic front, the backbone
   of the country, is in this state, the writer asks? (p 20; 1,200 words)

   Cairo Al-Shuruq Al-Jadid -- Independent pro-reform liberal daily,
   moderately critical of the government

   1. Report by Sabir Mashhur and Yasmin Salim on further escalation in the
   crisis between lawyers and judges. (p 1; 500 words)

   2. Report by Muhammad Khayyal cites Isam al-Uryan, official spokesman of
   the Muslim Brotherhood, on discussions underway to set up a coalition list
   of candidates for parliamentary elections under the name of the National
   Society for Change. The coalition is to inclu de all national powers,
   including Muslim Brothers, al-Uryan says. (p 1; 180 words; processing)

   3. Article by Imad-al-Din Husayn states that Mubarak's decision to revoke
   all contracts in the tourist village of Amun is not enough. The entire
   file of the deal involving two cabinet ministers must be referred to the
   prosecution, the writer stresses. (p 2; 600 words)

   4. Article by Dia Rashwan says things developed from bad to worse during
   the three decades of the NDP domination of the scene, especially in terms
   of providing guarantees for clean elections. The writer argues that the
   "individual ticket" system is no longer suitable. He points to the low
   turnout, which never exceeded 25 percent of the voter community. He refers
   to various suggestions concerning the electoral system and the required
   amendments to ensure public involvement and clean elections. (p 9; 2,000
   words)

   5. Report by Inas Abdallah examines whether Nilesat reputation is "at st
   ake" and whether certain parties are behind attempts to tarnish the
   reputation of the satellite network. The report cites Usamah al-Shaykh,
   chairman of the Egyptian Radio and Television Union ERTU, as he accuses
   Al-Jazirah channels of jamming transmission to serve "ulterior motives".
   Nilesat will not sacrifice its reputation or status over childish acts,
   al-Shaykh says. Engineer Salah Hamzah talks about "magnificent
   cooperation" between Al-Jazirah and Nilesat, who were both affected
   negatively by jamming, which he views as "common" and can happen anywhere
   in the world. Hamzah believes that there is a "common enemy" who wishes to
   ruin relations between Egypt and Qatar by politicizing the issue. "We deal
   with Al-Jazirah as our client and we don't deny that it was harmed as much
   as we were by that jamming," he adds. He discredits claims that Qatar
   wants to jam the Egyptian satellite because it plans to launch its own
   satell ite. (p 15; 2,000 words; processing)

   6. Article by Fahmi Huwaydi provides a reading into Dr Mufid Shihab's
   testimony before the UN Human Right Council about the state of human
   rights in Egypt. Dr Shihab's testimony as is an expression of "good
   intentions rather than reality", Huwaydi says. He states that human right
   conditions are deteriorating under emergency laws. (p 16; 600 words)

   7. Article by Hamdi Qandil wonders why we demand Israel to lift the siege
   on Gaza when we refrain from lifting the siege by opening the Rafah
   crossing permanently. (p 16; 1,600 words)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   24) Back to Top
   UK Arabic Press 14 Jun 10 - United Kingdom -- OSC Summary
   Monday June 14, 2010 09:12:45 GMT
   1. Editorial by Ghassan Sharbil on opportunities Iranian regime missed
   during Ahmadinezhad's first year of his second term both locally and
   internationally and the risks it took that do not serve the stability of
   Iran or the region. (700 words, processing)

   2. Article by Dawud al-Sharayan saying Arab League Secretary General's
   belated visit to Gaza Strip exposed marginalization of Arabs in the
   region. (500 words, processing)

   3. Article by Jihad al-Khazin defending Turkish leaders against charge of
   trading with Palestinian cause and pointing to the emergence of an
   Egyptian-Syrian-Turkish alliance against Israel. (800 words, processing)

   London Al-Sharq al-Awsat Online in Arabic 14 Jun 10 (Website of
   influential London-based pan-Arab Saudi daily; editorial line reflects
   Saudi official stance. URL:

   http://www.ashar qalawsat.com/ http://www.asharqalawsat.com/)

   1. Report citing various Iraqi sources on meeting between Iyad Allawi and
   Nuri al-Maliki and the view it was message to Iraqi National Alliance they
   could forge alliance and form the government. (700 words, processing)

   2. Article by Chief Editor Tariq al-Humayd pointing out that despite its
   opposition to a nuclear Iran, Saudi Arabia cannot be so reckless as to
   have military cooperation with Israel as claimed in reports that Riyadh
   gave Israel permission to use its airspace for strike on Iran. (500 words,
   processing)

   3. Article by Abd-al-Rahman al-Rashid rejecting claim that Saudi Arabia
   will allow Israel to use its airspace for strike on Iran. (600 words,
   processing)

   London Al-Quds al-Arabi Online in Arabic 14 Jun 10 (Website of
   London-based independent Arab nationalist daily with strong anti-US bias.
   URL:

   http://www.alquds.co.uk/ http://www.alquds.co.uk/

   1. Report citing Syrian and US Embassy in Damascus sources denying reports
   that long stay of Syrian ambassador in Washington means his withdrawal
   following Senate's refusal to approve Robert Ford as ambassador to Syria.
   (500 words, processing)

   2. Editorial commenting on Arab League Secretary General Amr Musa's visit
   to Gaza Strip asking what he will do after seeing the destruction caused
   by the Israelis and concluding that "past expe riences with the official
   Arab order and the Arab League are not cause for optimism at all and
   therefore we do not rely too much on Musa's visit to the Gaza Strip or
   expect much from the countries he represents." (600 words, no processing
   planned)

   3. Article by Madawi al-Rashid saying the Arab order's absence from the
   political stage has made the Arabs turn away from it and look for a hero
   from outside it to defend their causes. (1,400 words, processing) Negative
   selection: London Ilaf.com in Arabic 14 Jun 10 (Saudi-owned, independent
   Internet dai ly with pan-Arab, liberal line. URL:

   http://www.elaph.com/ http://www.elaph.com/)

   London Ilaf.com in Arabic 13 Jun 10 (additional selection)

   1. Report on security situation in Yemen's Ma'rib Governorate and on
   interview with Alawi al-Pasha, secretary general of Alliance of Ma'rib and
   Al-Jawf Tribes Council, accusing authorities of seeking to move the war
   from Sa'dah to the province and denying reports of alliance with
   Al-Qa'ida. (1,200 words, processing)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   25) Back to Top
   HAMAS Media 10-11 Jun 10
   Corrected version: correcting mistake in Al-Batsh's rank in text; The
   following lists the leading items featured by HAMAS-affiliate d media on
   10-11 Jun. For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at
   1-800-205-8615 or oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - West Bank &amp;amp; Gaza Strip --
   OSC Summary
   Monday June 14, 2010 09:03:07 GMT
   2. 00:04:07 The European campaign for breaking the siege on Gaza announced
   that it has secured the funding for the first six ships of the second
   Freedom Flotilla. The flotilla will set sail soon, while other ships from
   Bahrain, Egypt, and Kuwait will set sail in the next few days. Anchorman
   Tamir al-Sharif interviews a couple of people involved in the flotillas
   and their organization in Kuwait and the Gaza Strip. (13 min. 18 sec.)

   3. 00:17:37 An Arab artists delegation arrived in the Gaza Strip today
   through Rafah crossing to show solidarity with the Palestinians and the
   Freedom Flotilla. (3 min. 1 sec.)

   4. 00:20:27 Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has stresse d that
   his country will not allow the crime Israel committed against the Turkish
   citizens on the Freedom Flotilla to go unpunished. Meanwhile, the
   Arab-Turkish Economic Forum meetings started in Istanbul. (3 min. 44 sec)

   5. 00:24:59 This evening, the national and Islamic forces in the Gaza
   Strip held an "important" meeting with Ambassador Hisham Yusuf, assistant
   to Arab League Secretary General Amr Musa, to prepare for the latter's
   upcoming visit to the Strip. (23 sec.)

   6. 00:28:05 HAMAS Political Bureau Member Mahmud al-Zahhar welcomed Amr
   Musa's visit to the Gaza Strip, considering it a positive step toward
   breaking the "siege." (1 min. 40 sec.)

   7. 00:29:45 HAMAS has condemned statements by Palestinian President Mahmud
   Abbas to the effect that he will never deny the right of the Jewish people
   to the land of Palestine. HAMAS believes these statements provide the
   occupation with a cover for its behavior. (1 min. 35 sec.)

   8. 00:31:20 Muhammad Asqul, minister of education in the Gaza Strip, said
   his ministry continues its efforts to prepare and render successful the
   graduation exams for students in the Gaza Strip. (1 min. 12 sec.)

   9. 00:34:35 The Mediterranean Sea is reportedly drawing much attention
   following the discovery of a new gas field by an American and Israeli
   company. Excavation work will start in the end of 2010. Lebanese Chamber
   of Deputies Speaker Nabih Birri called on the Lebanese Government to claim
   its right to the gas field and prevent Israel from taking over it. (4 min.
   47 sec.)

   10. 00:47:04 Palestinian citizens in the Gaza Strip expressed their
   frustration with the fact that they will not be able to watch the football
   matches in South Africa due to some technical and bureaucratic problem
   relating to transmission rights and fees. (2 min. 54 sec.)

   Click here to view the front Page of Gaza Filastin in Arabic, the
   HAMAS-run daily newspaper on 11 June Main Headlines

   Prisoner Martyred in Occupation Prisons, 16 Citizens Arrested in West Bank

   HAMAS: Abbas Statements in Washington 'Unprecedented Political Failure'

   Al-Ahmad: Abbas Will Never Visit Gaza

   Because Cairo 'Does Not Want Us to Hold Direct Talks With HAMAS' --
   Kouchner Pessimistic With Respect to Possibility of EU Supervision on
   Rafah Crossing Administration

   'Futuh': Occupation Promised To Study Possibility of Allowing Essential
   Goods Into Gaza Strip

   German Jews Preparing Sail of Humanitarian Ship to Gaza

   Arab Artists Union Holds Special Conference in Gaza

   Lieberman: Gaza Strip Border Crossings Will Not Be Opened Until Shalit
   Receives Visit Ramallah Government Resolves To Postpone Local Elections

   86557 Students To Take High School Exams 12 June

   Top Stories

   A 150-word report on page 9 says that Brigadier General Taysir al-Batsh
   was appointed deputy Police chief in Gaza "to promote police wor k and
   develop the organization."

   A 650-word report on page 14 cites officials from several Palestinian
   factions on the statements by US President Barack Obama on the situation
   in Gaza. (processing) Opinion

   In a 350-word commentary on page 7, Isam Shawir argues that based on
   previous experience with the US "global campaign to dry up the resources
   of humanitarian aid under the pretext of waging war on terror," it is
   likely that "the weak US President Obama will finish the job of fighting
   charitable and humanitarian activities which was initiated by the fools
   who preceded him in the White House." The writer predicts that the current
   situation will change, the embargo on the Gaza Strip will be lifted, and
   Israel and the United States will fail in their "schemes to fight Islam
   and Muslims."

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyrig ht
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   26) Back to Top
   News Roundup 11-14 Jun
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov - Iran - OSC Summary
   Monday June 14, 2010 08:54:00 GMT
   The following is a roundup of reports appearing in the Iranian media
   sources in English, and news and commentaries published in non-US media on
   11-14 June 2010. This roundup is in the following sections: (Click on the
   links to go to the desired section) POLITICS/DIPLOMACY NUCLEAR
   ISSUE/SANCTIONS ECONOMY/ENERGY MILITARY/SECURITY TERRORISM/CRIME/NARCOTICS
   DISSENT/OPPOSITION SCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY SOCIETY/RELIGION HEALTH/MEDICINE
   CULTURE/MEDIA/SPORTS COMMENTARIES/ANALYSES/INTERVIEWS

   POLITICS/DIPLOMACY Fars New s Agency: "Iran's President urges Europe to
   avoid following US policies"

   (Sun, 13 Jun) Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad underlined the decline
   in the US power and influence in the world, and called on the European
   states to distance themselves from Washington's policies. Speaking to the
   United Arab Emirates TV network 'Al-Aan', the Iranian president asked the
   European states to act independently and stated, "If they want to move
   under the US influence and arrange their ties on the same basis, they
   should know that the US power is on a downward trend." "In this case they
   will decline like the US," Ahmadinejad went on saying. Pointing to the
   West's efforts to isolate Iran from the international community,
   Ahmadinejad stressed that the world does not mean just a few European or
   western states, rather it is formed of a large number of countries. "In
   the NPT conference in New York, Iran proposed its stances and raised its
   proposals. The Americans and Europeans also presented their reasons, but
   finally more than 180 countries supported Iran's stances and this clearly
   shows who has been isolated," he said. President Ahmadinejad also
   underlined Iran's close and friendly ties with other states, and added,
   "The Iranian nation has sincere and friendly relations with all the world
   nations, except the Zionist regime and the US administration." Asked about
   Iran's weak relations with countries like Germany and France, Ahmadinejad
   said that these two countries were Iran's main trade partners, "but they
   are not anymore today". "Today Iran's ties with most of the world
   countries are more extensive than those of the European countries. Iran
   has no need to Europe anymore; Iran does not need to rely on any alien
   power because Iran is a big power itself," the Iranian president went on
   saying. (Back to top) Press TV: "Iran slams UNSC silence on aid attack"

   (Sun, 13 Ju n) The Iranian president slams the UN Security Council for
   approving new sanctions against Iran while "remaining silent" on an
   Israeli attack on a Gaza-bound aid convoy. Speaking to Iranian state
   television on Sunday, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said the UN double standard
   regarding the two issues indicated the Security Council is "losing its
   legitimacy." Ahmadinejad said the US secured Russia and China's vote for
   new sanctions through deals but realized that it had "in fact gained
   nothing" through the resolution. The Iranian president also said the
   Israeli attack on Freedom Flotilla, which killed 20 people, sparked
   "global hatred" against Tel Aviv and that the whole world was now
   "questioning Israel's 60-year occupation of Palestine." (Back to top) Fars
   News Agency: "Turkish Speaker starts visit to Iran"

   (Sun, 13 Jun) Turkish Parliament Speaker Mehmet Ali Sahin arrived in
   Tehran on Sunday to discuss ties and cooper ation between the two
   countries in meetings with senior Iranian officials. Sahin's three-day
   visit takes place at an invitation by Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali
   Larijani. During his stay in Tehran, Sahin, who is heading a six-member
   delegation, is slated to meet with senior Iranian officials, including
   Larijani, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Foreign Minister Manouchehr
   Mottaki to discuss bilateral ties and exchange views over recent regional
   and international developments. The Turkish speaker will also pay a visit
   to Iran's central city of Isfahan in a bid to visit the city's cultural
   and historical sites and monuments. This is the first time a Turkish
   Parliament Speaker is visiting Iran in a decade. Reciprocal visits by
   Iranian and Turkish officials have increased in recent months due to the
   two countries' significant role in regional and international issues. A
   number of senior Iranian officials, including President Ahmadinejad and
   Foreign Minister Mottaki were in Tu rkey last week. Ahmadinejad was in
   Istanbul on Monday to attend the high-profile international Conference on
   Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA). (Back to top)
   IRNA: "Anti-Iran resolution, disturbing - Turkish parliament speaker"

   (Mon, 14 Jun) Speaker of Turkish parliament Mehmet Ali Sahin here on
   Monday called the recent anti-Iranian resolution issued by the UN Security
   Council as a disturbing case. Making the remark in a meeting with his
   Iranian counterpart Ali Larijani, visiting Sahin said the resolution was
   passed in spite of the Tehran Declaration issuance. Referring to the
   Tehran Declaration as a positive and useful stride in Iran's nuclear
   program, the Turkish official said his country believes that the Iranian
   nuclear dispute could be solved through talks. Sahin also said higher
   parliamentary cooperation between the two countries will boost bilateral
   brotherly bonds. He added that the Turkish government supports all-out
   coop eration with Iran in economic and trade fields in particular. The
   Turkish parliament speaker also expressed his country's readiness to
   remove any obstacles to Tehran-Ankara relations. Meanwhile, Iran's
   Larijani said the recent resolution against Iran indicated the
   international powers' anger at effective roles the new countries are
   playing in solving complicated international problems. Larijani further
   pointed to the Tehran Declaration on which Iran, Turkey and Brazil reached
   agreement and opined that a new era in international arena is taking
   shape. "The international powers' negative reactions to the Tehran
   Declaration showed that they do not seek solving the issue, but they want
   nuclear monopoly in the international interactions," Iran's speaker
   underscored. Larijani called for Iran-Turkey cooperation in the
   international and regional spheres as well as strengthening bilateral
   parliamentary interactions. Sahin arrived in Tehran on Sunday to meet with
   the top Ira nian officials and confer on bilateral relations. (Back to
   top) Fars News Agency: "Speaker: World powers seeking to trouble Iran's
   ties with Europe"

   (Sun, 13 Jun) Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani in a meeting with
   Portuguese Envoy to Tehran Jorge Dias Cabral took certain world powers
   responsible for problems in Iran-Europe relations. "Some world powers do
   not want a development of all-out ties between Iran and the European
   countries and by portraying a frightening image of Iran they channel
   Europe into a direction that it cannot define common interests with Iran,"
   Larijani said at the meeting here in Tehran on Saturday. A number of other
   Iranian officials and politicians had earlier warned of western attempts
   to spread Iranophobia in the region and the world. A senior Iranian
   legislator in February had cautioned that the US move to expand its
   anti-missile batteries in the Persian Gulf was aimed at portraying Iran as
   a major threat and insp iring the regional states with a feeling of
   Iranophobia. Larijani further underscored the importance of parliamentary
   relations between Iran and Portugal for facilitating and strengthening
   bilateral exchanges in different fields. "The parliaments of the two
   countries can define new viewpoints and fields for the growth and
   expansion of bilateral relations," he added. During the meeting, Cabral
   lamented that the level of economic ties between the two countries does
   not fit the age-old relations between Iran and Portugal, and said, "The
   two countries enjoy abundant capacities in economic, trade and cultural
   fields to develop their bilateral ties." (Back to top) Fars News Agency:
   "Official: West fears new ideology presented by Iran"

   (Sun, 13 Jun) Head of the Supreme Leader's Office Hojjatoleslam Mohammad
   Mohammadi Golpaigani said that the new ideology presented by the Islamic
   Republic of Iran is the root cause of West's animosity towards the
   country. "Resolutions against and opposition to Iran are not rooted in the
   issue of nuclear energy, rather enemies are fearful of the Islamic
   Republic of Iran's new ideology that has invalidated all their 'Isms'
   (i.e. schools of thought like capitalism and communism)," Mohammadi
   Golpaigani stressed, addressing inauguration of Adineh cultural complex
   here in Tehran on Sunday. "Because this new ideology will ruin their
   fragile palaces," he added. Mohammadi Golpaigani also highlighted Iran's
   nuclear achievements despite continued opposition by the West, and noted,
   "In the past the westerners claimed that 20 centrifuge machines are more
   than enough for Iran, and they accepting possession of 5 machines (by
   Iran)." "But now we possess 6,000 centrifuge machines" due to our
   resistance against their bullying and irrational demands, he added. The
   remarks by the Iranian official came in reaction to West's growing
   pressures on the country at the UN Security Council which approved a
   fourth round of sanctions against Tehran on Wednesday. (Back to top) Mehr
   News Agency: "Egypt to allow Iranian MPs to enter Gaza through Rafah
   crossing"

   (Sun, 13 Jun) Egypt has agreed to allow Iranian lawmakers to use the Rafah
   border crossing to travel to Gaza, Iranian MP Alaeddin Boroujerdi
   announced on Sunday. Boroujerdi stated that he talked with his Egyptian
   counterpart on Saturday, adding that Egyptian officials expressed
   readiness to allow Iranian lawmakers to enter Gaza through the Rafah
   border crossing. "(We) have asked the Egyptian government (to allow) the
   Iranian parliamentary delegation to go through the Egyptian channel to
   enter Gaza," said the MP, who is the chairman of the Majlis National
   Security and Foreign Policy Committee. He added that Egypt's overall views
   on the issue are positive. On June 8, at a meeting with the director of
   the Egyptian Interests Section in Tehran, Aleddin Hassan-Yous sef,
   Boroujerdi said the Majlis plans to dispatch a parliamentary group to
   Gaza. In addition, Iranian MP Mahmoud Ahmadi-Biqash said on Sunday that
   the Egyptian government has agreed to issue visas for 70 Iranian
   parliamentarians who have registered to travel to the Gaza Strip. (Back to
   top) Mehr News Agency: "Administration is obligated to obey the law: GC
   chairman"

   (Sun, 13 Jun) Guardian Council Chairman Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati says the
   administration is obligated to implement the Majlis ratifications approved
   by the Guardian Council. In response to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's
   recent letter, the Guardian Council published a letter signed by Ayatollah
   Jannati. "As you have mentioned, the body which has jurisdiction to
   determine whether the Majlis ratifications are in line with the
   Constitution and sharia (Islamic law) is the Guardian Council... it should
   not be forgotten that after the completion of the examination of the
   ratified laws by the coun cil, all bodies have no alternative besides
   abiding by the law," Jannati told Ahmadinejad in the introduction of the
   letter. Jannati also wrote, "The first two ratifications mentioned in the
   letter have been approved by the council and now are considered the law
   and the administration should observe them." On June 7, Ahmadinejad sent a
   letter to the Guardian Council, saying some laws ratified by the
   parliament contravene the Constitution. The president had objected to
   three Majlis ratifications in his letter. The first two ratifications were
   the Home Construction and Supply Protection Plan and modifications in the
   admissions rules of some universities. The president's letter came in the
   wake of a fierce row between the Majlis and the administration over the
   administration's refusal to implement some of the plans ratified by the
   parliament. Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani says the administration has
   violated some laws ratified by the Majlis, but Ahmadinejad insists that
   some ratified laws are not consistent with the Constitution. (Back to top)
   IRNA: "President says Iran, Saudi Arabia should stand by each other"

   (Sun, 13 Jun) President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said here Sunday that Iran and
   Saudi Arabia should stand by each other because they have splendid
   position and share common interests and enemies. "Iran and Saudi Arabia
   should taje the side of each other given their common religion,
   outstanding position and common interests and enemies," President
   Ahmadinejad told Saudi Arabia's new ambassador to Tehran Mohammed Ibn
   Abbas al-Kallabi here on Sunday. The president said Iran and Saudi Arabia
   should have fraternal bonds for three reasons: First of all they are
   Muslim and follower of a common religion; secondly, both are main bastions
   for Muslims and thirdly they have common enemies. He said Iranians'
   resistance to the US and the Zionist regime is in fact aimed at defending
   entire regional states. "Enemie s are seeking geopolitical change of the
   region, including Saudi Arabia, and today, the Iranian nation has
   powerfully stood up to their sinister wishes and is supporting all Muslim
   states as a duty." President Ahmadinejad also told the Saudi diplomat that
   there are extensive grounds for Iran-Saudi Arabia cooperation. "The
   cultural, religious, political, international and economic grounds and
   defense of rights of Muslims are the opportunities which both countries
   can seize for expansion of mutual cooperation. Absolutely, there are many
   enemies which do not wish closer ties between the two countries. We should
   be careful and nullify their plans. If Iran and Saudi Arabia stand by each
   other, enemies will not dare to continue aggression, occupation or
   pressurize world Muslims," said President Ahmadinejad. Al-Kallabi,
   submitting his credentials to the President, said in turn that his country
   wants to have extensive cooperation with Iran, believing that there are am
   ple subjects which the two countries should address through mutual
   cooperation. Undoubtedly, no body can affect mutual ties thanks to strong
   determination of the two countries' officials to upgrade bilateral and
   regional ties and cooperation, he added. (Back to top) IRNA: "President
   calls for stronger Iran-Thailand relations"

   (Sun, 13 Jun) President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad here Sunday urged stronger
   Iran-Thailand ties, saying that certain countries are unhappy and worried
   about close relations among states. "The ill-wishing and bullying powers
   do not favor security and dignity of nations and countries and therefore
   they are trying to impede nations' progress," President Ahmadi nejad told
   Thai Ambassador to Tehran Pichai Israbhakdi. The President said there are
   extensive grounds for stronger cooperation between Iran and Thailand at
   bilateral and international levels which should be used by the two sides.
   He said Iran and Thailand can further expand c ooperation and relations in
   line with their nations' interests and in favor of global peace, security
   and fraternity. Israbhakdi, submitting his credentials to the president,
   said for his part that positive historical background of bilateral ties
   has proved a suitable opportunity for broader relations in many fields. He
   said western media give improper and distorted image of conditions in
   Thailand, attributing violence in Bangkok to its government. "These are
   not true," he added. (Back to top) IRNA: "Ahmadinejad: Ties between Iran,
   Cyprus benefit both nations"

   (Sun, 13 Jun) President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Sunday that the
   Islamic Republic of Iran and Cyprus can broaden mutual, regional as well
   as international relations and cooperation. President Ahmadinejad made the
   remarks in a meeting with the new Cypriot ambassador to Tehran. Profound
   cultural ties between the two countries benefit both nations as well as
   the entire region, said the Ira nian president. There is no limit on
   expansion of all-out cooperation between the two countries, he said,
   adding that Iran is ready to expand relations with Cyprus in all fields.
   The new Cypriot ambassador, for his part, submitted his credentials to
   President Ahmadinejad and said ties between the two nations are very
   deeply rooted. Cyrus is determined to further bolster friendly ties with
   the Islamic Republic of Iran, he said. He expressed the hope to witness
   further expansion of relations between the two countries. (Back to top)
   Mehr News Agency: "Grand ayatollahs say Imam Khomeini's family must be
   respected"

   (Sun, 13 Jun) Grand ayatollahs Ali Safi Golpayegani and Abdollah Javadi
   Amoli have expressed deep regret over the recent disrespect to Hassan
   Khomeini, the grandson of Imam Khomeini, and urged all groups and
   individuals to respect the great Imam's household. "Unfortunately, when we
   need unity, empathy, and integrity... some people do unethical a nd
   ill-advised things, which undermine unity," Grand Ayatollah Safi
   Golpayegani said in Qom on Sunday. He also advised media outlets,
   especially Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, to respect the Imam's
   family and to try to raise people's hope in the Islamic system. Grand
   Ayatollah Javadi Amoli strongly criticized the disrespectful action,
   saying it was unjust treatment of the Imam and the Imam's family. On June
   4, a number of hecklers prevented Hassan Khomeini from speaking at Imam
   Khomeini's mausoleum during the ceremony marking the 21st anniversary of
   his grandfather's demise and he was forced to abandon his address. The
   move provoked widespread outrage and many clerics and political figures
   censured those who disrespected the grandson of the Founder of the Islamic
   Republic. (Back to top) Mehr News Agency: "MP dissatisfied with
   Ahmadinejad's visit to China"

   (Sat, 12 Jun) MP Mohammad Mehdi Shahryari has criticized the president's
   visit to Chin a which voted in favor of new sanctions against Iran on
   Wednesday. "Whenever a country acts against another country, bilateral
   ties won't boost," Shahryari, a member of the Majlis National Security and
   Foreign Policy committee, told Mehr News Agency on Saturday. A day after
   the adoption of the fourth round of sanctions against Iran by the UN
   Security Council, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visited China to attend
   the Shanghai Expo at "Iran Day". "Since most of political observers and
   experts agree on the fact that China and Russia are not reliable partners,
   ties with these countries should be revised. As long as a country acts
   against the other, their mutual ties won't expand." Lamenting an
   endorsement of the resolution by some countries like Uganda, Gabon and
   Bosnia, Shahryari stated: "Their votes show that even if Latin American
   countries were the members in the United Nations Security Council, they
   could have been voting against us." ; "Our relations with these countries
   (Uganda, Gabon, and Bosnia) are limited and we cannot have more political
   and economic ties with them. They are actually under the pressure of the
   West, especially the U.S.," Shahryari noted. He also expressed his
   disagreement with some lawmakers who say Iran should use its supremacy in
   the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf in reaction to the new
   sanctions. This approach is neither effective nor rational, he explained.
   "These measures should only be used as the last resort against threats,
   more sanctions and foreign animosity against Islamic Republic of Iran,"
   Shahryari noted. The new resolution allows inspection of Iranian ships.
   However, some MPs have threatened if Iran's ships are inspected Iran will
   retaliate by inspecting foreign cargo. (Back to top) NUCLEAR
   ISSUE/SANCTIONS Press TV: "Iran mulling response to UN resolution"

   (Mon, 14 Jun) Iranian MPs are deliberating on how to react to a four th
   round of sanctions against Tehran approved by the United Nations' Security
   Council on the ninth of June. "The new round of sanctions proved American
   officials' hostility toward the Iranian nation", parliamentarian Kazem
   Delkhosh told Press TV's reporter after Parliament's open session on
   Monday. "But this will only make Iranians more determined to acquire
   modern technology, and they will fight harder for their rights", added the
   top MP. This comes as a question mark hangs over Russia and China's stance
   on Iran. Although their strong economic ties with Tehran have stopped
   sanctions from affecting oil exports, their backing for further sanctions
   is regarded as unacceptable by members of Parliament. "The MPs will
   definitely have a proper response", member of Parliament Mehdi
   Kouchakzadeh told Press TV. "Some MPs have proposed withdrawing from the
   NPT while others suggest reducing cooperation with the IAEA",
   parliamentarian Asgar Jalali an told Press TV. He said the MPs will
   continue their deliberations until arriving at a final decision. In the
   meantime, the parliamentarians have reiterated that they will study the
   matter carefully to avoid making any hasty decisions. (Back to top) Press
   TV: "'Iran to enrich uranium to 20%'"

   (Sat, 12 Jun) Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has dismissed the UN
   Security Council's sanctions resolution against Iran and announced that
   Iran plans to enrich uranium to 20 percent. "We presented a nuclear fuel
   exchange agreement to walk on the path of cooperation with the
   International community, not to confront other nations," Ahmadinejad told
   an ISNA reporter at a press conference in Shanghai on Friday. "Iran will
   provide the 20 percent enriched fuel it needs," he added. Ahmadinejad said
   the new UN sanctions against Tehran "deliver a death blow to the Security
   Council and US President Barack Obama." The Iranian president made th e
   remarks after attending events for Iran Day at the World Expo in the
   Chinese port city of Shanghai. (Back to top) Fars News Agency: "Iran's
   President: UNSC sanctions backfire"

   (Sun, 13 Jun) Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Sunday described
   the new UN Security Council sanctions resolution against Iran as a futile
   move, stressing that the decision by the world powers to impose further
   pressures on Tehran would backfire. Addressing cabinet ministers and
   officials from state-owned bodies and organizations to mark the
   anniversary of Iran's 10th presidential election last year, President
   Ahmadinejad dismissed the world powers' approach and allegations that they
   are defending themselves by imposing pressures and sanctions against
   Tehran. "The bullying powers issued the resolution in a bid to defend
   themselves. But their defense was such an inexperienced move that it
   struck a blow at themselves," President Ahmadinejad stated. (Back to top)
   Press TV: "Iran scouting for new nuclear site"

   (Sat, 12 Jun) The head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI)
   says the country plans to identify a suitable location to build a new
   nuclear site there. Ali Akbar Salehi said Saturday Iran hopes to be able
   to spot a new location in the country by March 2011 for the construction
   of another nuclear site,

   http://www.irna.ir/View/FullStory/?NewsId=1173448 reported IRNA. "However,
   we won't rush into it; rather, the job should be followed up with great
   care and sensitivity", added Salehi. The AEOI chief further touched upon
   Tokyo's readiness to cooperate with Tehran on construction of nuclear
   power plants. "Not long before the release of the Tehran Declaration had
   Japan announced that it would work with Iran to build new nuclear power
   stations", Salehi underscored. "Now that the Tehran Declaration on nuclear
   fuel swap has been released, Japan is expected to make good on its promise
   ", added Salehi. Elsewhere in his remarks, Salehi said the Bushehr nuclear
   power plant is undergoing the last phases of its final test dubbed the
   'warm water test'. "The test will be complete in one week", underlined
   Salehi. "The AEOI's top priority at the moment is to discover and extract
   uranium", added Salehi. He further said exploration operations have been
   carried out in almost one third of the country, and will soon be conducted
   in the remaining areas. "With the plans and activities carried out, Iran
   will turn into a manufacturer of power plants over the next 10 to 15
   years", said Salehi. (Back to top) Press TV: "Iran 'ready for dialogue
   with P5+1'"

   (Sat, 12 Jun) Iran's nuclear point man says Tehran is still ready for
   dialogue with the P5+1, provided that they modify their preconditions. The
   Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) Ali Akbar Salehi
   told IRNA on Saturday that the P5+1 -- the five permanen t member of UN
   Security Council plus Germany -- are obstructing the talks aimed at ending
   the standoff over Tehran's nuclear program. "We have repeatedly stated our
   readiness for dialogue, and it is they (the P5+1) who announce a new
   precondition each time," Salehi said. "This is while the Islamic Republic
   has declared that it will enter talks based on the two proposed packages,"
   he added. Salehi criticized the six for creating problems by "proposing a
   dialogue that only follows their own interpretations." The AEOI head also
   stressed that as Iran's nuclear priority was security, membership in the
   Convention on Nuclear Safety would serve Iran's national interests. (Back
   to top) Press TV: "Salehi says West pushed to corner"

   (Sat, 12 Jun) Iran says Western powers have been pushed to a corner of
   isolation ever since they decided to adopt new sanctions on the country
   over its nuclear activities. Days after the UN Security Council (U NSC)
   threw its weight behind a US-proposed resolution for more sanctions on
   Tehran, Director of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization Ali-Akbar Salehi
   said Saturday that Western countries have already been mired in the hasty
   decision. "Already, western countries have been entangled in a quagmire of
   their own making," IRNA quoted Salehi as telling a group of reporters.
   "The only way (Western powers) can survive this situation with dignity is
   for them to accept the Tehran declaration," he added, referring to a deal
   issued by Iran, Brazil and Turkey on nuclear fuel swap. (Back to top)
   Press TV: "Iran not to exceed obligations with IAEA"

   (Sat, 12 Jun) Iran says it will continue to cooperate with the
   International Atomic Energy Agency, but not beyond its obligations under
   the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). "The agency will be allowed to carry
   out its routine inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities and we are
   determined to maintain coopera tion with the IAEA and continue our uranium
   enrichment within the NPT framework," Iran's envoy to the IAEA, Ali-Asghar
   Soltanieh,

   http://isna.ir/ISNA/NewsView.aspx?ID=News-1555678 told ISNA on Friday.
   "But our cooperation will not exceed our original obligations under the
   NPT, so we ask the IAEA to step in line with the NPT in its demands and
   requirements from Iran," he added. Soltanieh said the IAEA should also
   "act according to its legal framework," expressing regret about the UN
   Security Council's "rash decision" to impose fresh sanctions on Tehran
   over its nuclear program. He said the move testified to Washington's
   rather distinct "uneasiness about the lack of unanimity among the
   15-member Council" in the Wednesday vote for a fourth round of sanctions
   against Iran. (Back to top) Fars News Agency: "Spokesman condemns West's
   'carrot and stick' policy on Iran"

   (Sat, 12 Jun) Tehran - Iranian Foreign Minis try Spokesman Ramin
   Mahman-Parast blasted the western countries for their dual track approach
   towards Tehran to persuade Iran to give up its indispensible right of
   access to civilian nuclear technology. "The carrot and stick policy is
   ridiculous and the Iranian nation views it as an insult to itself,"
   Mahman-Parast said, addressing a group of university students here in
   Tehran on Saturday... Referring to the US efforts to find an excuse or a
   flaw in Iran's nuclear program, Mehman-Parast reiterated, "No country is
   more aware than the US that Iran is in pursuit of peaceful nuclear
   technology for civilian purposes. "But it still seeks excuses, puts
   pressure and uses double-standard policies against us," he added. The
   spokesman underscored that the pressures exerted by the world powers on
   Iran could never force the country to give up its rights of access to
   peaceful nuclear technology, and said Tehran's policy is based on logic
   and rationale. "If t hey can convince us, we accept (their demands) but if
   they cannot convince us, we will stand against them united and will in no
   way retreat from our rights," he reiterated. (Back to top) Fars News
   Agency: "Iranian judiciary chief deplores 'unjust' UN resolution"

   (Sun, 13 Jun) Iranian Judiciary Chief Ayatollah Sadeq Amoli Larijani
   condemned the new UN Security Council sanctions resolution against Iran,
   saying the measure unveiled West's lies about its support for peace and
   tranquility. "Unfortunately the UN Security Council in an unfair measure
   took punitive measures against the Islamic Republic of Iran which has been
   committed to all international rules and undertakings nuclear grounds,"
   Amoli Larijani said, addressing a number of judiciary officials here in
   Tehran on Sunday. "The approval of the resolution revealed the untrue
   nature of their peace-seeking claims," he added. The comments by the
   Iranian judiciary chief came days aft er the UN Security Council approved
   a new round of sanctions against Tehran with non-permanent members Turkey
   and Brazil opposing the move and Lebanon showing abstention. Noting that
   the resolution was approved under intensive pressures by the US and the
   Zionist lobby, Amoli Larijani stressed that the world body approved the
   measure against Iran, while it shows indifference to certain countries
   which possess hundreds of nuclear warheads, defy requests to joint the
   Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and still continue their illegal
   activities. Meantime, he downplayed effectiveness of sanctions against
   Iran, and said Iran's experience in the post-revolution era shows that
   such sanctions, often completely political in nature, have always
   backfired and caused Iranian people's progress and increased their talents
   and aptitudes. (Back to top) IRNA: "OIC Union berates UN Security Council
   for anti-Iran resolution"

   (Sun, 13 Jun) Mahmoud Erol Kilic, Secretary-General of the Parliamentary
   Union of the Organization of the Islamic Conference in a statement on
   Sunday condemned the United Nations Security Council resolution 1929 on
   Iran. In a strongly worded statement, Erol Kilic, described the move as
   politically-motivated aimed to prevent the country from vindicating its
   legitimate rights on peaceful use of nuclear energy. "The OIC
   Parliamentary Union expresses outrage over such resolution and is to
   strongly condemn any sanctions against each of Islamic states. Such
   resolution runs counter to the principles of human rights and
   international rules and regulations," he underlined. (Back to top) IRNA:
   "Speaker says Iran will confront US nuclear plots stronger than before"

   (Sun, 13 Jun) Iran's Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani said Sunday the US
   and its puppets should never doubt that the Iranian nation will resist
   their nuclear plots even stronger than before. He made the remark in an
   open session of Majlis this mornin g in reference to issuing of another
   resolution by the United Nations Security Council on Iran's nuclear
   program. He said Americans has been for so long following up the issue of
   Iran's fuel swap both in direct and indirect manners. He further noted
   that the US President Barack Obama had in person wrote letters to his
   Brazilian and Turkish counterparts asking them to mediate in the issue.
   The speaker said that at the mean time the US was trying to make belief
   that the issue of fuel swap would take place only within the framework of
   interaction and commitment and that confrontational attitudes would be out
   of question; a claim, which Larijani said, was later proved to be a hollow
   one. Now the world nations, in less than a month after the Tehran
   Declaration, were witnessing that America was using the UNSC to have
   another resolution approved against Iran, he added. He believed such
   behavior in itself reveals the deceiving attitudes of the US to the world.
   (Back to top) Fars New s Agency: "Senior MP: Russia losing Iran's trust"

   (Sun, 13 Jun) Russia has lost the Iranian people's trust and confidence
   after it gave a yes-vote to the new UN Security Council sanctions
   resolution against Tehran, a senior Iranian legislator said on Sunday.
   "The public opinion in Iran has many ambiguities about Russia's
   performance in the past. There is now a wall of mistrust which could have
   been brought down earlier," Rapporteur of the parliament's National
   Security and Foreign Policy Commission Kazzem Jalali told reporters. The
   comments by the Iranian lawmaker came days after the UN Security Council
   approved a new set of sanctions against Tehran with Russia and China being
   among the supporters of the US-sponsored plan. Jalali expressed the hope
   that Russia and China would correct their viewpoints, and said Iran and
   Russia move one a similar track in confronting unilateralism "but Moscow's
   vote at the UN damages such strategic view". He also reiterated that the
   fourth resolution against Iran like the previous resolutions is cruel and
   unacceptable to the Islamic Republic of Iran. Russia and China's support
   for the UN sanctions resolution against Iran was faced with serious
   criticism and protests in Iran. (Back to top) Fars News Agency: "Iran to
   supply sanctioned goods through intermediaries"

   (Sun, 13 Jun) Sanctions and pressures against Iran over its peaceful
   nuclear program have no effect on the country, an Iranian legislator said
   on Sunday, mentioning that Tehran can purchase its needed commodities
   boycotted by the UN Security Council resolutions through international
   intermediaries. "Despite sanctions, we can even buy many sanctioned goods
   through intermediaries and we shouldn't be concerned in this regard,"
   Seyed Mostafa Tabatabaeenejad told FNA. "Many sanctions have, thus far,
   been passed against Iran, but none of these sanctions has had any impact
   (on the country), " he added. The UN Security Council approved a fourth
   sanctions resolution against Iran on Wednesday after non-permanent member
   states Brazil and Turkey voted against the new sanctions and Lebanon
   abstained from voting. Tabatabaeenejad pointed to the dual-approach of
   Russia and China on Iran, and said the yes vote of these two countries to
   the new sanctions against Tehran will not affect the trend of Tehran's
   progress and its international interactions with other countries. Russia
   and China's support for the UN sanctions resolution against Iran was faced
   with serious criticism and protests in Iran. (Back to top) Fars News
   Agency: "Iran threatens Russia, China with reciprocal sanctions"

   (Sat, 12 Jun) Tehran will certainly adopt some reciprocal measures against
   those countries which have voted for the new UN Security Council
   resolution against Iran, a senior Iranian lawmaker cautioned on Saturday.
   "The parliament's Energy Commission has studied way s for taking a
   decision on imposing sanctions against these countries," Deputy Head of
   the parliament's Energy Commission Abdollah Ka'bi told FNA. "Countries
   like China and Russia which enjoy the highest volume of trade and economic
   exchanges with Iran will certainly sustain a serious damage in case of any
   decrease in the volume of (Iran's) trade with these countries," Ka'bi
   reminded. He also underlined that Iran should certainly give a crushing
   response to the supporters of the sanctions resolution, as any negligence
   in this regard would embolden the arrogant powers to take more measures
   against Iran. The lawmaker stated that imposing sanctions on Iran has been
   a cruel and stupid measure. He also said the Zionist regime and the US
   have obviously made abundant efforts to persuade other countries to vote
   against Iran at the UN Security Council. (Back to top) Press TV: "Iran not
   to reduce Russia,China ties"

   (Sun, 13 Jun) Iran says it has no plans to decrease relations with Russia
   and China, despite having grievances over their support for a new round of
   UN sanctions against the country. Speaking to

   http://www.mehrnews.com/fa/NewsDetail.aspx?pr=s&amp;amp;query=&amp;amp;#200;&amp;amp;#209;&amp;amp;#230;&amp;amp;#204;&amp;amp;#209;&amp;amp;#207;&amp;amp;NewsID=1099776
   Mehr news agency on Sunday, Chairman of the Iranian Parliament's National
   Security and Foreign Policy Commission Alaeddin Boroujerdi said the
   country has made no plans to downgrade relations with long-time partners,
   Russia and China. "Iranian officials are rather disappointed with Russia
   and China's approval of more sanctions against Tehran, but this does not
   mean we are looking for ways to reduce the level of relations with the two
   countries," Boroujerdi said. (Back to top) Fars News Agency: "Rafsanjani:
   Iran not to surrender to sanctions"

   (Sun, 13 Jun) Chairman of Iran's Expediency Council Akbar Hashemi Rafsanja
   ni on Sunday blasted the recently approved UN Security Council sanctions
   against Iran, and said Tehran would never give in to pressures. "All these
   (developments) could be psychological warfare again to bring us closer to
   surrender under threats. Of course their experience has shown that Iran
   will not give up," Rafsanjani said, reminding that the EU, US congress and
   Group 5+1 had all mounted threats of sanctions against Iran in the last
   few days before the new resolution was approved at the UN Security
   Council. Pointing to three decades of pressures exerted on the Islamic
   Republic since the onset of the Islamic Revolution, Rafsanjani stated,
   "Thus far, Iran has always proved that it stays loyal to the interests of
   the Revolution and people and continues resistance, and all of them have
   experienced this." Also during the session, the chairman and members of
   the Expediency Council condemned the new round of UN Security Council
   sanctions against Iran, and de scribed the move as further bullying by the
   arrogant powers to deprive Iran of its inalienable rights. (Back to top)
   Fars News Agency: "Parliament to review Iran's cooperation with IAEA"

   (Sat, 12 Jun) An Iranian legislator announced on Saturday that the
   country's parliament plans to discuss a bill tomorrow on lowering the
   level of Iran's cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency
   (IAEA). "A double-urgent bill for downgrading the level of (Iran's)
   cooperation with the IAEA will be put on the parliament's agenda
   tomorrow," Alireza Fouladgar said in an interview with FNA. He added that
   the Iranian people and parliament are united in supporting the country's
   right to access peaceful nuclear energy. Fouladgar blasted the recently
   approved UN Security Council resolution against Tehran's nuclear program,
   and added, "The US-led western states do not want to endorse Iran's
   peaceful nuclear activities." "This is a wrong path take n by the US-led
   western states against the Islamic Republic of Iran," he added. The
   legislator reminded IAEA's several reports about non-diversion of Iran's
   declared nuclear materials, and said all "Iran's nuclear activities are
   conducted under the supervision of the agency", meaning that Iran is
   pursuing a civilian and peaceful path towards the acquisition of the
   nuclear technology. "But the western states are pursuing their own
   hegemonic policies towards the Islamic Republic of Iran," he continued.
   Fouladgar also underlined inefficiency of the imposed sanctions, and
   stressed that such pressure would not foil Iran's quest for the
   acquisition of the nuclear technology. "Iran continues the path of its
   nuclear activities," he reiterated. (Back to top) Fars News Agency: "Aboul
   Gheit dismisses efficienty of sanctions against Iran"

   (Sat, 12 Jun) Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit underlined a
   negotiated end to Iran's n uclear issue, saying that sanctions against the
   country would produce no result. In a statement issues on Thursday, Aboul
   Gheit reminded that previous sanctions against Tehran have proved
   ineffective and merely led to tension between the two sides. He said
   sanctions will not help find a peaceful formula to Iran's nuclear standoff
   with the West. (Back to top) Fars News Agency: "Lebanon's vote at UN
   Security Council displeases Iran"

   (Sat, 12 Jun) Iran's envoy to Beirut Ghazanfar Rokn-Abadi voiced Tehran's
   displeasure at Lebanon's approach towards new UN Security Council
   sanctions resolution against Iran, saying Tehran expected Beirut to oppose
   the resolution rather than showing abstention. The Iranian ambassador to
   Beirut made the remarks while commenting on Lebanon's vote of abstention
   to the UNSC's Resolution 1929 which was adopted on June 9 under US
   pressures by twelve votes for, two votes against from Brazil and Turkey
   and one abstention from Lebanon. The resolution imposed a fourth round of
   sanctions against Tehran for its peaceful nuclear program. Referring to
   the Tehran-Beirut friendly ties, the ambassador told the Islamic republic
   news agency that Iranian officials had expected their Lebanese
   counterparts to oppose the resolution by giving a "No" vote to it.
   Meanwhile Rokn-Abadi appreciated those Lebanese political parties and
   groups who had expressed dissatisfaction by releasing separate statements
   over the adoption of the new resolution and Beirut's move during the
   voting process as well. (Back to top) Fars News Agency: "Russian party
   condemns Moscow's yes vote to anti-Iran resolution"

   (Sat, 12 Jun) The Russian Constitution Party in a statement deplored
   Moscow's yes vote to a new sanctions resolution against Iran at the UN
   Security Council. "We are surprised to see that the Russian government has
   taken this position and participated in the anti-Iran propaganda at the UN
   Security Coun cil and assisted the US to spark a new center of tension at
   Russian borders, as this position runs counter to the national interests
   of the Russian Federation," the statement said. The UN Security Council
   (UNSC) on Wednesday passed a sanctions resolution against Iran with 12
   votes while the non-permanent UN Security Council member states - Brazil
   and Turkey - voted against and Lebanon abstained from voting. Noting that
   the resolution was an inappropriate measure taken against a country which
   does not possess nuclear weapons, the Constitution Party reiterated that
   the world community should pay attention to those countries and regimes
   which are not members of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and possess
   atomic warheads. "In addition, everyone is well assured that India,
   Pakistan and Israel possess nuclear weapons. Possibly South Africa and
   North Korea also have nuclear weapons, while these countries have no
   undertakings in this regard," the statement added. ( Back to top) Press
   TV: "Russian MP: Anti-Iran aye harmful"

   (Sun, 13 Jun) Deputy speaker of the Russian parliament Vladimir
   Zhirinovsky has criticized Moscow's 'harmful' approval of fresh UN
   Security Council sanctions against Iran. Zhirinovsky, the founder of the
   Russian Liberal-Democratic Party (LDPR), said Friday that the "Yes" vote
   to the US-back proposal had been a mistake, RIA Novosti reported. "The
   imposition of fresh sanctions against Iran could harm our relations with
   the Islamic Republic," the parliamentarian was quoted as saying Saturday.
   "What did the Americans do? They have driven us away from Iran," the
   founder of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia went on to say. (Back to
   top) Press TV: "Iran sanctions futile: Syria FM"

   (Sun, 13 Jun) Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem says the new round
   of UN Security Council sanctions against Iran over Tehran's nuclear
   program will prove futile. In an interview with the Syrian newspaper
   Al-Watan published on Sunday, Muallem stresses that the fourth round of
   punitive sanctions was not the solution to the standoff over Iran's
   nuclear program. "We, in Syria, still believe that the policy of imposing
   sanctions is not useful. The previous UN experiments have proved the
   failure of those policies," Muallem was quoted as saying. (Back to top)
   Press TV: "Hezbollah slams UNSC hypocrisy"

   (Sun, 13 Jun) Hezbollah's Deputy Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qasim has
   denounced UN Security Council's (UNSC) stance on Iran's civilian nuclear
   program and called the body an Israeli advocate. Speaking at a
   commemoration ceremony for the founder of the Islamic Republic, Imam
   Khomeini, in Beirut on Saturday, Qasim said that the latest anti-Iran
   sanctions come amid Israeli aggressions in the region and the Security
   Council's blind support for Tel Aviv, IRNA reported on Monday. The
   Hezbollah official also criticized the pa ssivity of the UNSC and called
   it a place where cruelty is legitimized and the principles of justice and
   fairness are undercut. "The problem with Iran is not because of the
   country's nuclear program, but due to its ethics that disallow the West to
   force it into submission," he stated. (Back to top) Fars News Agency:
   "Senior MP views UNSC resolution against Iran as opportunity"

   (Sat, 12 Jun) The new UN Security Council's sanctions resolution against
   Iran can be an opportunity for the country, a senior Iranian legislator
   said on Saturday. "The Security Council resolution will not have much
   effect and we will turn it into an opportunity through special measures
   and we will do something that will make the US repent its deeds," Deput y
   Head of the parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission
   Esmai'l Kosari told FNA. Similar to the previous anti-Iran resolutions,
   the country will adopt appropriate measures to prevent the new s anctions
   from inflicting any damage or harm on the Iranian people. (Back to top)
   Fars News Agency: "Bahraini Speaker hails Iranians' wisdom in confronting
   crises"

   (Sat, 12 Jun) Bahraini Parliament Speaker Khalifa Bin Ahmad al-Dhahrani in
   a meeting with Iranian Ambassador to Manama Hossein Amir Abdollahian
   praised the Iranian officials' wise and powerful treatment of crises. "The
   officials of the Islamic Republic of Iran have always acted with wisdom,
   insight and might after any kind of crisis," al-Dhahrani said on Friday,
   referring to Iran's stance on the new sanctions resolution approved by the
   UN Security Council on Wednesday. Stressing the firm position of the
   Bahraini government, people and parliament on supporting Iran's right to
   use peaceful nuclear technology, he reiterated, "Peaceful nuclear energy
   is the right of all countries and Iran." During the meeting, Amir
   Abdollahian underlined Iran's steadfast stance in dealing with its nuclear
   issue, and said the new resolution against Iran was approved under the
   pressures exerted by the Zionist lobby and lacks credit and value. (Back
   to top) Mehr News Agency: "Iranian MPs draft plan to reassess ties with
   Russia, China"

   (Sat, 12 Jun) Some lawmakers have drafted a plan to lower ties with Russia
   and China due to their vote for new sanctions resolution against Iran,
   announces MP Vali Esmaili. "The Islamic Republic has extensive economic
   relations with China and Russia, and we did not expect they vote for the
   sanctions," said Esmaili, a senior member of the Majlis majority faction.
   Unfortunately, these two countries were swayed by the Zionist lobbies and
   the Unites States and supported the adoption of the resolution against
   Iran, he said on Saturday. In response to this move, lawmakers decided to
   draft a proposal to reduce ties with Russia and China which will be
   submitted to the Majlis presiding board in the near future, he explai ned.
   A conservative politician, Hamid-Reza Taraqi, is of the opinion that China
   and Russia would not go ahead to implement the terms of the new sanctions
   on Iran. "The recently-approved resolution will not have any affect on
   Iran in practice, and Russia and China have announced that they are not
   committed to implement this resolution," Tarraqi, a member of the Islamic
   Coalition Party, told the Mehr News Agency. This resolution has been
   adopted only to put Iran under political pressure to halt its nuclear
   program, the former lawmaker opined. However, he suggested that Iran
   should reconsider ties with the countries that voted against Iran. He
   added Iran has wrongly put too much trust on some countries. (Back to top)
   Mehr News Agency: "Moscow betrayed Iran for a pittance: MP"

   (Sat, 12 Jun) MP Parviz Sorouri has said that Moscow betrayed its
   long-term interests for a pittance by voting in favor of fresh round of
   sanctions against Iran. Iran expecte d China and Russia to use their veto
   power to block the anti-Iran resolution, Sorouri, a member of the Majlis
   National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, told the Mehr News Agency.
   (Back to top) ECONOMY/ENERGY Mehr News Agency: "Iranian delegation in
   Geneva for ILO meet"

   (Sun, 13 Jun) The Iranian labor and social affairs minister heading a
   delegation of labor and employer representatives arrived in Geneva Sunday
   to take part in the 99th International Labor Organization gathering. ISNA
   news agency reported that Abdolreza Sheikh-ol Eslami and his group will
   review ways of supporting homemakers, reducing the spread of disease in
   work environments, creating jobs and the follow-up of the 1998 Declaration
   concerning basic rights of laborers. Sheikh-ol Eslami plans to meet his
   counterparts and hold talks with Juan Somavia, Director-General of the
   International Labor Office during the week-long meeting. (Back to top)
   IRNA: "Minister: Iran to turn into m ajor supplier of gas to neighbors"

   (Sun, 13 Jun) Minister of Oil Masood Mir-Kazemi said here Sunday that Iran
   has diversified plans to meet gas needs of its neighbors, thereby securing
   flow of global and regional energy supply. "We explicitly announce that as
   a country having huge gas reserves, Iran will play a key role in
   guaranteeing global energy security in the future," Mir-Kazemi told
   reporters on the sidelines of a ceremony during which a $ 7.5 billion
   Iran-Pakistan gas project was finalized. The project is dubbed as 'Peace
   Pipeline' to start supply of natural gas to Pakistan from Iran from 2014.
   Mir-Kazemi said that as of coming years, Iran will be among key players in
   guaranteeing world energy security in the gas sector. Pakistan and Iran on
   Sunday finalized $7.5 billion gas project to start supply of natural gas
   from Iran to Pakistan from 2014. The landmark agreement was signed by
   Iran's deputy oil minister Javad Ouji and a Pakistani delegati on
   including Secretary of Petroleum and Natural Resources Kamran Lashari and
   Managing Director of Inter-State Gas Company Naeem Sharafat in Tehran.
   "Now the project has entered into a new phase and there are no further
   formalities left in its way" Naeem Sharafat said. He said the IP project
   was another testimony to the long historic and cordial relations between
   Pakistan and Iran," the official said. The pipeline will connect Iran's
   giant South Pars gas field to Pakistan's Balochistan and Sindh provinces.
   Pakistan has to construct about 700 kilometers of pipeline from the border
   to connect to its existing gas transmission network at Nawabshah. A
   42-inch diameter pipeline is planned to be built, which is estimated to
   cost $1.65 billion. The project is crucial for Pakistan to avert a growing
   energy crisis, already causing severe electricity shortages in the country
   and the project would help generate around 5,000 megawatts of electricity.
   Under the gas sale and purchase agreement (GSPA), Pakistan will import
   about 750 million cubic feet of gas per day (mmcfd) with a provision to
   increase it to one billion cubic feet per day (bcfd). The volume of
   imported gas will be about 20 per cent of Pakistan's current gas
   production and the agreement is valid for a period of 25 years and
   renewable for another five years. Iran has the world's second largest gas
   reserves after Russia but has struggled for years to develop its oil and
   gas resources. Iran state television said the pipeline was 1,000 km (620
   miles) long, with about 907 km of it already built. Pakistan would be
   allowed under an agreement signed in March to charge a transit fee if the
   proposed pipeline is eventually extended to India. The project was revived
   and bilateral Iran-Pakistan Joint Working Group (JWG) was established with
   its first meeting being held from December 29-30, 2003 in Islamabad. (Back
   to top) Fars News Agency: "Pakistan dismisses link between UN resolution,
   gas agreement with Iran"

   (Sat, 12 Jun) The Pakistani foreign ministry announced on Saturday that
   the new UN sanctions resolution against Tehran will in no way affect
   Islamabad's intention for supplying gas from Iran. "The recent anti-Iran
   sanctions at the Security Council will have no effect on the pipeline
   contract for transferring Iran's gas to Pakistan," Pakistani Foreign
   Ministry Spokesman Abdul Basit said today. The UNSC's resolution (1929)
   was adopted on June 9 under US pressures by 12 votes for, two votes
   against from Brazil and Turkey and one abstention from Lebanon. The
   resolution imposed a fourth round of sanctions against Tehran for its
   peaceful nuclear program. Basit pointed out that sanctions are focused on
   Iran's nuclear program and the country's ballistic missiles, while the
   pipeline agreement is an economic issue and is not related to the
   sanctions. He made the remarks referring to the endorsement of a final
   agreement by Tehran and Isla mabad in March to launch implementation of a
   project for exporting Iran's rich gas reserves to the energy-hungry
   south-Asian nation. (Back to top) Press TV: "Iran oil industry to draw $50
   bn in funds"

   (Sat, 12 Jun) Iran's oil industry is expected to absorb more than $50bn in
   foreign investment by March 2011 given the projects already underway
   across the nation. "We welcome foreign investment in the projects.
   However, we will tap into domestic potential if there is a lack of foreign
   finances", Iran's Deputy Oil Minister Ahmad Ghal'e Baani was quoted by
   IRNA as saying on Saturday. On Iran's oil policies in the wake of the new
   UN sanctions resolution against the country, he said "A series of measures
   will definitely be adopted in that regard". "Iran's oil industry has long
   been operating independently and does not need others' (foreigners')
   decisions", added the top official. He underlined Iran will use sanctions
   as an opportunity to utilize local potentialities. "Iran's current oil
   production hovers around more than four million barrels per day which is
   based on the quota set by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting
   Countries (OPEC)", added the deputy oil minister. OPEC's official output
   ceiling presently stands at 24 million 850 thousand barrels per day. (Back
   to top) IRNA: "Agricultural exports reach $4.2b - minister"

   (Sun, 13 Jun) Minister of Agriculture Jihad Sadeq Khalilian said Sunday
   that the country enjoyed 4.2 billion dollars worth of agricultural exports
   in the past Iranian calendar year (ended March 20, 2010). Khalilian made
   the remarks while addressing a national seminar in the capital. The
   minister underlined the need for obtaining self-sufficiency in the
   agricultural field and promotion of agricultural exports in the country.
   (Back to top) Fars News Agency: "Iran hikes non-oil exports by 33%"

   (Sun, 13 Jun) Iran's non-oil exports showed a 33.3% growth in value and
   amounted to over $4.5 billion in the first two months of the current
   Iranian year (March 20 to May 20). "Iran's exports, including liquid gas
   byproducts, in the first two months of the current Iranian year amounted
   to over $4.5 bln, showing a 30% growth in weight and 33.3% increase in
   value, compared to the same period last year," Iranian Custom's
   Director-General for Statistics and Information Technology Hossein Kakhaki
   told FNA. The official further pointed out that the country's imports
   showed a decline of 6.3% in weight, and 19.8% in value during the same
   period and reached nearly $8.4 bln. According to Kakhaki, the top 10
   Iranian non-oil export products were hydrocarbons, liquid gases, liquid
   propane, polyethylene, liquid butane, pistachio nuts, ethylene, methanol,
   Portland cement, cucumbers and pickles. He added that the primary
   destinations of Iranian exports are China, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates,
   India and Afghanistan. The c ustoms officials also noted that while the
   annual figures for Iran's export in the past year have not been finalized,
   the country realized $21.32 bln in non-oil exports which exceeded
   government target of $12.7 bln, reflecting a 165.9% surplus. (Back to top)
   Mehr News Agency: "1.5m tons of goods transited through Iran in 2 months"

   (Sun, 13 Jun) In the first two months of the Iranian calendar year
   (started March 21) over 1.5 million tons of various goods worth some $4.68
   billion were transited through Iranian borders. The Mehr News Agency
   reported that these figures are 60 percent heavier in terms of weight and
   38 percent more in value compared to the same period the year before. In
   the period from March 21 to May 20 230,000 tons were exported first and
   foremost to Iraq which constitutes 14.7 percent of the total exports
   through Iran. China, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, the UAE and other counties
   stood in lower places respectively. (Back to top) Mehr News A gency: "Iran
   car output up 9%"

   (Sat, 12 Jun) Domestic car producers manufactured 218,694 cars of
   different types in the first 2 months of the current Iranian calendar year
   (started March 20, 2009). The amount shows a 9 percent increase compared
   with the figure corresponding to the same period last year, the Islamic
   Republic of Iran News Network reported. In the mentioned period, 187,507
   passenger cars have been produced, which is 9.5 percent more than the year
   before. (Back to top) Fars News Agency: "MP: Western companies competing
   for investment in Iran"

   (Sun, 13 Jun) Western companies are striving hard to take part in
   investment projects in Iran despite a fresh set of UN Security Council
   sanctions against the country, a member of the Iranian parliament stated
   on Sunday. "Companies active in the West and Europe are seeking to
   establish proper ties and contacts with Iran through economic mediators
   and intermediaries," Rapport eur of the parliament's Development
   Commission Mohammad Reza Hosseinnejad told FNA, responding to a question
   about possible impacts of new UN sanctions on Iran's economy. "Crisis in
   the economic situation of the countries that back up the sanctions
   (against Iran) as well as their investment companies' lack of relations
   with Iran have brought large losses for them," the Iranian legislator
   explained. He stressed Iran's economic independence, and underscored,
   "Iran's economy has grown due to its independence, and that was for the
   same reason that the financial crisis in the West and Europe did not harm
   our country effectively." Hosseinnejad also underlined that Iran's
   self-sufficiency contributes a major share in the steadfastness of the
   country's economy in confrontation with sanctions. (Back to top) Fars News
   Agency: "Analyst: Iran-UAE trade ties unaffected by sanctions"

   (Sun, 13 Jun) An Iranian economic activist in the United Arab Emirat es
   stressed that the UN Security Council sanctions against Tehran could not
   affect the country's trade ties with other countries. "The new restriction
   and sanctions do not affect our business in the UAE because we have
   already been hit by the previous sanctions in the latest three rounds,"
   Executive Deputy Head of the Iranian Business Council in the UAE Morteza
   Masoumzadeh said on Sunday. "It's not something that will affect our
   future," he said. Pointing to the close economic ties between the two
   Persian Gulf littoral states, Masoumzadeh stated that "Iran and the UAE
   have historical and traditional ties" and such measures cannot leave a
   major impact on the two countries' relations. "This is not something new;
   there have always been Iranian trade houses in the UAE and Emirate
   businessmen in Iran... around 8,000 Iranian companies are operating in the
   UAE at the moment," he noted. (Back to top) Fars News Agency: "Official:
   Iran's i mports, exports not affected by new sanctions"

   (Sun, 13 Jun) The Security Council's sanctions resolution against Iran
   will leave no impact on the country's imports and exports, a customs
   official said on Sunday, stressing that the measure cannot inflict any
   damage on the Iranian nation. "The new Security Council sanctions against
   Iran have been imposed on strategic goods, including weapons and
   munitions, and will not have any effect on Iran's exports and imports of
   commodities through intermediaries and investment," Iranian Customs'
   Director-General for Statistics and Information Technology Hossein Kakhaki
   told FNA. The official also said Iran's non-oil exports showed a 33.3%
   growth in value and amounted to over $4.5 billion in the first two months
   of the current Iranian year (March 20 to May 20). "Iran's exports,
   including liquid gas byproducts, in the first two months of the current
   Iranian year amounted to over $4.5 bln, showing a 30% growth i n weight
   and 33.3% increase in value, compared to the same period last year," he
   said. (Back to top) MILITARY/SECURITY Fars News Agency: "Iran-made
   choppers start operation"

   (Sun, 13 Jun) A senior Iranian Army commander announced on Sunday that a
   number of sophisticated unmanned choppers newly designed and produced by
   the country's experts started operation for the Iranian military.
   Commander of the Iranian Army Ground Force Brigadier General Ahmad Reza
   Pourdastan said in an interview with FNA that the unmanned choppers have
   already been tasked with scouting and combat missions. "Production of
   unmanned choppers for scouting missions, which can also be armed for
   combat missions, was carried out in the Army Ground Force and the choppers
   are used in different sections," Pourdastan mentioned. "The choppers have
   already been tested and evaluated in different wargames," the commander
   continued. The commander also noted that utilization o f Unmanned Aerial
   Vehicles (UAVs) has now entered the literature of and become a routine for
   the Iranian Armed Forces. Last week, a senior Iranian commander announced
   that the Air Force plans to form a battalion of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
   (UAVs) in all its bases across the country. "In every Air Force fighters
   base, a UAV battalion will be formed," Lieutenant Commander of Iran's Air
   Force Mohsen Darrebaqi told FNA, adding, "These UAV battalions have
   already been formed in four bases." Noting that the UAV units of the Air
   Force have been operative for as long as many years, Darrebaqi pointed out
   that these units are currently tasked with intelligence and information
   gathering and reconnaissance missions. (Back to top) Press TV: "Iran
   insists on S-300 delivery"

   (Sun, 13 Jun) A senior Iranian lawmaker urges Moscow to "stand by its
   commitments" after the Kremlin made a snap decision to freeze the sale of
   the S-300 defense system to Tehran. In the wake of a UN Security Council
   decision to impose fresh sanctions on Iran, Russian Prime Minister
   Vladimir Putin has reportedly assured fellow Western leaders that Moscow
   would shelve a long-stalled deal to deliver the S-300 air-defense missiles
   to the government in Tehran. Deputy Head of the Iranian Parliament's
   National Security and Foreign Policy Commission Esmail Kowsari reacted to
   the sudden decision made by the Kremlin on Saturday, asserting that Russia
   is "bound by an agreement to provide Iran with the advanced defense
   system." "Russia should abide by agreements made between the two countries
   and deliver the system to Iran," Kowsari told Mehr news agency on
   Saturday. "But if they end up refusing to deliver the systems, we are well
   capable of producing missile defense systems that are very much similar to
   Russia's S-300 apparatus," he noted, referring to plans in Iran to develop
   an air defense system that is reported to be comparable to and even more
   sophisticated than the advanced Russian S-300 system. (Back to top)
   TERRORISM/CRIME/NARCOTICS Press TV: "Iran arrests Kurdistan assassins"

   (Mon, 14 Jun) Iranian security forces have identified and arrested at
   least 13 members of a terrorist organization allegedly involved in the
   assassination of its Kurdistan province's high-ranking figures. In a
   statement released on Monday, Iran's Intelligence Ministry announced that
   police officials have managed to track down the terrorists, who staged the
   assassination of two prominent Kurdish figures in September 2009. Mohammad
   Sheikholeslam, the representative of Kurdistan Province in Iran's Assembly
   of Experts, was shot dead on his home doorsteps in the Western city of
   Sanandaj, only days after the city's Friday Prayers leader Borhan Ali was
   gunned down by a group of armed individuals. "The group was directly
   engaged in various assassination plots and acts of violence against (Irani
   an officials) and were captured while they were scattered in the provinces
   of Qazvin, Hamedan, Kurdistan, and Mazandaran," the statement said. "They
   had in their posses (Back to top) Fars News Agency: "Iran arrests MKO
   members"

   (Sun, 13 Jun) An Iranian official announced on Sunday that several members
   of the anti-Iran terrorist group, the Mojahedin-e Khalq Organization
   (MKO), were arrested in Tehran yesterday, while they were seeking to spark
   tension in the Iranian capital on the anniversary of the last year's
   presidential election. "Based on the information received (thus far), a
   number of MKO members are among the individuals who were arrested by the
   people (civilians) yesterday," Governor-General of Tehran Morteza Tammadon
   said on Sunday. The official declined to provide any further det

   27) Back to Top
   Commentary Suggests Greece Use Turki sh-Israeli Rift For Foreign Policy
   Gains
   Commentary by ELIAMEP Think Tank Director Thanos P. Dokos: "Opinion: Will
   It Be An Opportunity for Greece?" - I Kathimerini tis Kiriakis
   Monday June 14, 2010 08:42:17 GMT
   (Description of Source: Athens I Kathimerini tis Kiriakis in Greek --
   Sunday edition of the influential independent daily)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   28) Back to Top
   Pakistan Author Urges Consensus of UN Members for Security Council
   Enlargement
   Article by Asif Ezdi: Reforming the UN Security Council - The News
   Online
   Mond ay June 14, 2010 07:14:39 GMT
   Monday, June 14, 2010

   The US-India Security Dialogue held in Washington in the beginning of this
   month has raised expectations in India of a forward movement, with US
   backing, on India's so far stalled bid to become a permanent member of the
   UN Security Council. Apart from the heart-warming words on India's
   emerging global role, US officials also made plenty of "forward-leaning"
   statements, to use Assistant Secretary Blake's language, on India's
   aspirations for a seat at the top table. At a media briefing, he mentioned
   in particular Under-secretary Burns' statement on the eve of the dialogue
   that India's expanding global role would naturally make it an important
   part of any future consideration of Security Council reform.

   Hillary Clinton also made a similar statement at the opening of the
   plenary session. Later, at her press conference with Krishna, she
   reiterated that US w as very committed to considering India, while also
   pointing out that the challenge was to find a consensus on the reform
   issue.

   At his interaction with the media, Blake spoke also of an ongoing debate
   in the US government on how to expand the Security Council while at the
   same time maintaining its effectiveness. This, combined with Blake's
   remark that Obama is looking forward to "ambitious results" from his visit
   to India in November, has triggered speculation in India that he might on
   this occasion announce US support for an Indian permanent seat. As is
   known, after getting the nuclear deal from Washington, Delhi has almost
   made the Security Council issue the litmus test of US's declared goal of
   helping India's global rise.

   By coincidence, the India-US security dialogue took place at the same time
   as the UN General Assembly began discussion in New York on a controversial
   "negotiation text" on Security Council reform. The first step towards this
   highly divisive move was taken in September 2008, when the Assembly
   decided, after years of inconclusive discussions in a working group, to
   shift the matter to its "informal plenary" for intergovernmental
   negotiations, as demanded by India and other aspirants for a permanent
   seat. Their expectation was that the new format, which permits
   decision-making by vote in place of the consensus rule followed in the
   working group, would enable them to push through a resolution for creating
   new permanent members. The objections and reservations of a large number
   of influential countries which included not only those like Pakistan that
   oppose new permanent members but also three of the existing permanent
   members (US, China and Russia), who similarly favour a consensus-based
   outcome on the reform issue, were overruled.

   It remains to be seen whether this move for "text-based negotiations" will
   bring India and its allies in the Group of Four (G-4) - Brazil, Germany
   and Japan - any nearer to their cherished goal of permanent membership.
   The last time they tried to put the matter to a vote was in 2005. They
   came close, but failed because of some last-minute lobbying by the United
   States and China, which for different reasons were opposed to the G-4
   expansion plan, though not to the idea of creating a few more permanent
   seats.

   There has been no significant change in the positions held by different
   countries and groups since then. The main divide is between G-4 and other
   aspirants for permanent seats on the one hand and the dozen or so
   "mid-tier" countries (including Pakistan) who oppose new permanent seats
   on the other.

   Not surprisingly, the main concern of the five permanent members is to
   preserve their privileged position. Two of them (US and China) have
   nothing to fear. United States is the super-power of yesterday, today and
   tomorrow and while willing to add more members to the Security Council
   would li ke the expansion to be small so that it retains its
   "effectiveness."

   China, generally considered as the superpower of tomorrow, has supported
   Security Council expansion to give greater representation to the
   developing countries but it has strong reservations on giving a permanent
   seat to Japan. On India's candidature, Beijing has maintained a studied
   ambivalence.

   The two weakest members of the club of permanent members are France and
   Britain. These former great powers have come to realise that if Security
   Council reform is delayed for too long, the decline in their international
   influence might have gone so far that their status as permanent members
   may become untenable. Without their seats on the Security Council, their
   international clout would be about the same as that of Spain (no offence
   meant), another country with a glorious imperial past but hardly one of
   the movers and shakers on the world scene. Britain and France have
   therefore recently bee n pressing for an early increase in permanent
   membership in the hope of perpetuating their own permanent seats. They are
   now among the staunchest supporters of India's claim to a permanent seat.

   Among countries which have been nursing ambitions for permanent seats are
   not only the four members of G-4, but others like Indonesia, Mexico
   (formerly) and a few African countries. The main contenders for the two
   permanent seats envisaged for Africa under the G-4 proposal are South
   Africa, Nigeria and Egypt.

   The main opposition to G-4 comes from a dozen large countries (Pakistan,
   Indonesia, South Korea, Iran, Turkey, Italy, Spain, Egypt, Algeria and
   Mexico) which are not prepared to be reduced to third-class status, along
   with the vast bulk of the UN membership, as would be the result if the G-4
   manages to get permanent seats. For want of a better collective title,
   these countries (some of which are actually bigger than half the
   membership of G-4) are referred to as mi ddle-sized or mid-tier states.
   They could also be described as "threshold countries" because they can all
   make plausible cases for becoming permanent members. Not all of these
   countries are members of the Uniting for Consensus (UfC) group which
   opposes G-4's claim, because some of them, like Egypt and Indonesia,
   entertain the false hope that they could themselves become permanent
   members. Iran too has not joined the UfC for a mixture of motives.

   The unending debate on Security Council enlargement has firmly pitched the
   aspirants for permanent seats against the threshold countries. The
   positions of the two sides have now become so deeply entrenched that a
   compromise is virtually impossible. If new permanent members are created,
   it is hardly conceivable that the threshold states (or most of them) will
   acquiesce in being reduced to a third-class status. There is already a
   precedent. In 1926, Brazil withdrew from the League of Nations when it was
   not given a per manent seat on the Council although Germany, which joined
   the League in the same year, got one. Spain also gave notice of withdrawal
   but later decided to remain a member.

   The threshold countries may not have the numbers to match the G-4 in the
   General Assembly but collectively their collective political weight is
   enormous. It would greatly help clarify the stakes involved if they were
   to make it known how they would react if the demand of a handful of
   countries for permanent seats were accepted. One option would be to for
   these mid-tier countries to terminate their cooperation with the Security
   Council. But there are other possibilities as well. This is a matter they
   should be deliberating upon individually as well as collectively. A summit
   meeting of the threshold countries before the next General Assembly
   session should be considered to discuss this matter.

   The argument that the current composition of the Security Council does not
   represent the present-day re alities is right. But adding four, five or
   six new permanent members is not the answer. At the end of the Second
   World War, power was concentrated in hands of the Big Three. Today, it is
   diffused among two dozen or so countries. The restructured Security
   Council must reflect this reality and the new configuration must be based
   on consensus of the entire UN membership. If the G-4 is allowed to
   gate-crash into the club of permanent members, they would be putting the
   future of the world organisation in serious jeopardy.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The News Online in English -- Website of
   a widely read, influential English daily, member of the Jang publishing
   group. Neutral editorial policy, good coverage of domestic and
   international issues. Usually offers leading news and analysis on issues
   related to war against terrorism. Circulation estimated at 55,000; URL:
   http://www.thenews.com.pk/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   29) Back to Top
   DPRK Party Organ Denounces IAEA Director General's Remarks on DPRK Nuclear
   Issue
   Commentary by reporter Kim Chong-son: "Spiritless Remarks of an Ignorant
   Man"; The author's title in the byline provided by KPM may be different
   from that which appears in hard copy - Rodong Sinmun (Electronic Edition)
   Tuesday June 15, 2010 02:19:37 GMT
   He uttered spiritless remarks that our country should fulfill all of its
   "obligations" related to the nuclear non-proliferation and that it should
   comply with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and Safeguards
   Agreement in accordance with the United Nations Secu rity Council (UNSC)
   "resolution" (adopted) following the nuclear test in 2006 and "inform" the
   IAEA of the status of the implementation. He even called on the countries
   concerned to make effort for a resumption of the Six-Party Talks, with the
   aim of denuclearizing the Korean peninsula.

   Ignorant people are bound to ramble incoherently. Amano appears to be an
   ignorant man who does not know whether the Sun rises in the east or in the
   west. What he grumbled about was unreasonable sophism not worth listening
   to.

   It is already known what kind of person Amano is. He is a Japanese with
   strong pro-US tendency who initially failed to be elected as the director
   general of the agency due to the opposition of the developing countries,
   but later barely managed to have himself elected through money diplomacy.
   He is the person who made such a presumptuous remark, as soon as he
   assumed the office of the IAEA Director General, that Japan has "made its
   u tmost" in the field of nuclear non-proliferation in the postwar period
   and that he would settle the nuclear issue involving the DPRK and Iran
   before his term of office expires. There is no reason to believe such a
   person, who is so pro-US and so insanely subservient to the United States
   and who dances to the tune of his US master, will speak reasonably. Now,
   it is necessary to seize this opportunity to make him get rid of his habit
   once and for all.

   How ignorant he is to insist that we should implement our "obligations"
   regarding the NPT and comply with the Safeguards Agreement! Our country is
   not a member of the IAEA and not a signatory to the NPT. Moreover, our
   Republic has never recognized the unfair UNSC "resolutions."

   Amano exhibits his ignorance through his careless words, not knowing the
   history of the nuclear issue of the Korean peninsula. The nuclear issue of
   the Korean peninsula in essence came into existence because the Unite d
   States brought nuclear weapons into South Korea and has posed nuclear
   threats to us for over half a century.

   The United States is the ringleader that brought nuclear weapons into
   South Korea first. In the latter half of the 1950s, the United States
   relocated nuclear weapons it had deployed in Japan to South Korea. The
   deployment of nuclear weapons in South Korea by the United States has
   continued without interruption and its number reached approximately 1,000
   by the mid-1970s.

   To cope with a serious situation in which the United States turned South
   Korea into the largest nuclear arsenal in the Far East by bringing into it
   a large number of nuclear weapons, while devoting itself to maneuver of
   nuclear blackmail against the DPRK, our Republic has made every effort
   possible to turn the whole of the Korean peninsula into a nuclear-free
   region and ultimately eliminate the danger of a nuclear war from this
   region.

   Had the United States not threatened and bla ckmailed the DPRK, the
   nuclear issue between the DPRK and the United States would not have
   cropped up to begin with and the situation on the Korean peninsula would
   not have worsened to the degree as seen today. The United States gravely
   threatened our country's sovereignty and right to exist after designating
   the DPRK as a part of an "axis of evil" and a "target of preemptive
   nuclear attack."

   It was for the purpose of eliminating the US nuclear threat and exercise
   the right to use nuclear (energy) for peaceful purposes , not for the
   purpose of having its right trampled upon that our country subscribed to
   the IAEA and the NPT in the past.

   We have withdrawn from the IAEA and the NPT to cope with the serious
   situation where nuclear threat from the United States increased and the
   supreme interests and security of the country were seriously infringed
   upon and had no choice but to have our own nuclear deterrent in our
   possession. From the moment w e withdrew from the IAEA and the NPT, our
   country bore no obligations whatsoever.

   It is absurd for Amano, who does not know anything about this, to talk
   about the so-called implementation of "obligations" and compliance with
   the so-called Safeguards Agreement. Such an absurd logic will not convince
   anyone.

   It is highly ludicrous to hear him say as if he were "interested" in the
   resumption of the Six-Party Talks. It is due to the United States and
   South Korea that the Six-Party Talks are not being held. The Obama
   administration has kept the nuclear issue from moving ahead by enforcing a
   hard-line, hostile policy toward the DPRK and in the end, had the South
   Korean puppets fabricate the sinking incident of "Ch'o'nan (Cheonan)," a
   smear act against the Republic, and used it to completely block the
   process of denuclearizing the Korean peninsula and resuming the Six-Party
   Talks.

   Would it not be the least requirement for the Direc tor General of the
   IAEA to have a basic knowledge about and history of the nuclear issue of
   the Korean peninsula and in what state the Six-Party Talks are?

   It is doubtful whether such a person who does not know anything about such
   things and thoughtlessly dances to the tune of the United States would run
   an international agency without a hitch. If Amano serves the United States
   as its spokesman and acts like a puppet whose wire is pulled by the
   latter, while extremely distorting the essence and history of the nuclear
   issue of the Korean peninsula by being servile to the United States, and
   plays the game of putting pressure on us, this will only disgrace his
   stature as the director general of an international agency and dim its
   image. He is well advised to have clear understanding of the essence and
   history of the nuclear issue of the Korean peninsula, take a fair position
   on it, and act properly, if he is interested in settling it.

   (Description of Source: Pyong yang Rodong Sinmun (Electronic Edition) in
   Korean -- Daily of the Central Committee of the Workers Party of Korea;
   posted on the Korean Press Media (KPM) website run by the pro-Pyongyang
   General Association of Korean Residents in Japan; URL:
   http://dprkmedia.com)Attachments:ComIAEADirectorGeneralRS14Jun10.pdf

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   30) Back to Top
   DPRK Central Radio Program Review for 14 Jun 10
   Following is a compilation of Korean Central Broadcasting Station's
   program previews for 14 June, which are aired daily at approximately 2000
   and 0300 GMT. Programming schedule changes and summaries of talks and
   programs are noted in editorial brackets; no further processing pla nned
   on any of the items unless otherwise indicated. OSC has filed program
   summaries of all the newscasts as the two referent items. - Korean Central
   Broadcasting Station via Satellite
   Monday June 14, 2010 14:50:36 GMT
   (This first of the five-part repercussion by the world people, progressive
   mankind's boundless praise of "Great Leader (widaehan ryo'ngdoja) Comrade
   Kim Jong Il (Kim Cho'ng-il)" who is "intensifying and developing chuch'e
   idea through his extraordinary wisdom and prominent political ability and
   immortal contribution in realizing the cause of independence of
   mankind."Opens with praise carried on Peruvian newspaper article. (6
   min)); Followed by music of Merited State Choir at 2016 GMT

   2023 Poem "The General Stood Before Mother (o'mo'nim ap'e changgunnimu'n
   so' kyesyo'tsu'mnida)"

   (Repeat; This poem by "(Kim To'k-so'n)" a nd read by "(Announcer Han
   Kyo'ng-hi)" about the general standing at Osando'k (hometown of Kim
   Cho'ng-suk) unable to forget the mother's love and telling that day of
   powerful state that both the fatherly leader (o'bo'i suryo'ngim) hoped for
   all throughout his life and mother picture in her mind is approaching.
   talks about the general's pledge to speed up day of a powerful state
   encouraged by mother's smile (joy). (5.5 min))

   2100 News and weather2200 News and weather2225 Unattributed talk "Fiery
   Revolutionary Who Lived (His) Whole Life Like Fire" (This program about
   "Comrade Kim Ch'o'l-chu (Kim Chol Ju; Kim Jong Il's uncle) upon the 75th
   anniversary of his demise (on 14 June 1935).Introduces anecdotes that
   showed him as devoting his youth and whole life to carry out the great
   leader's (widaehan suryo'ngnimu'i) revolutionary cause according to the
   great leader's intention, line, policy and instructions.Notes Kim
   Ch'o'l-chu being example of " ;chuch'e-type revolutionary" today.Notes his
   great life and immortal revolutionary achievement forever shining together
   with the military-first era and greatly encouraging the DPRK people's
   struggle to build a powerful state today.Concludes noting the people while
   engraving in their hearts, indomitable revolutionary fighter Comrade Kim
   Ch'o'l-chu's spirit of death-defying implementation and highly upholding
   the respected and beloved general Kim Jong Il's military-first
   revolutionary leadership, to make this year that marks the 65th founding
   anniversary of the party into meaningful year in which brilliant heyday of
   the improvement of the people's living standards unfolds. (8.5 min))

   2300 Music (Starts with "Unforgettable Song" that opens with the Song
   "Workers Party Is Our Guide (rodongdangu'n uriu'I hyangdoja)" that was
   created in 1957) 14 June

   0000 Overview of today's central newspapers (Overview of 14 June Monday
   Rodong Sinmun (Nodong Sinmun) (nearly 5 min))0012 (0010 GMT) Rodong Sinmun
   special article "Our Party's Immortal Achievement That Led Chuch'e
   Socialist Cause to Victory"

   (This 11 June Rodong Sinmun page-two special article by Kim Hong-ku'n
   talks about the general's guidance and immortal achievement for the
   socialist cause and the DPRK army and people's will to complete chuch'e
   socialist cause.(14 min))

   0100 News and weather0113 (Unscheduled) Editorial carried on page-one of
   Rodong Sinmun "Functionaries, Advance at Vanguard of Great Upswing While
   Upholding Banner" (OSC plans to process this editorial carried on page-one
   of 14 June Rodong Sinmun hardcopy as KPP20100614104001 (8.5 min))

   0200 "Everything for the Improvement of the People's Living Standards!"
   header Program "On-the-spot Guidance Units That are Vigorously Waging
   Manuring and Cultivation of Crops With the Very Spirit (Demonstrated)
   During Rice Transplanting"

   (This tot al 9.5-minutes program introduces units that received the
   leader's on-the-spot guidance of all parts of the country that are
   vigorously waging manuring and cultivation of crops.This program consists
   of:

   (1) Unattributed talk "With Spirit of Completing Rice Transplanting in
   Good Time Qualitatively" that introduces feats of functionaries and
   agricultural working people of rural areas of all parts of the country
   that received on-the-spot guidance who are vigorously kindling flames of
   innovation while taking the lead in manuring and cultivation of crops
   after successfully completing rice transplanting.Introduces leading units
   that are carrying out farming work with burning will to repay the
   respected and beloved general's love and faith bestowed upon them such as
   Migok Cooperative Farm of Sariwo'n (North Hwanghae Province); Samjigang
   Cooperative of Chaeryo'ng County (South Hwanghae Province); Oguk
   Cooperative Farm of Anak County (South Hwanghae Province); Sinam
   Cooperative Farm of Yongch'o'n County (North P'yo'ngan Province);
   Ch'o'ngsan Cooperative Farm of Kangso' District (Kangso' County, South
   P'yo'ngan Province); U'nhu'ng Cooperative Farm of T'aech'o'n County (North
   P'yo'ngan Province); and Tongbong Cooperative Farm of Hamju County (South
   Hamgyo'ng Province) that are concentrating efforts in weeding after
   successfully completing rice transplanting in between interview with
   "Comrade (?Kim Sang-nam), member of Ministry of Agriculture." (nearly 6
   min)

   (2) Forum by Comrade Cho Ch'ang-hwan), Work Team No 1 Leader of Ch'o'ngsan
   Cooperative Farm of Kangso' District, Namp'o entitled, "Will Carry Out
   Manuring and Cultivation of Crops In Scientific and Technological Way" on
   will to carry out this year's farming well by carrying out pending
   manuring and cultivation of crops, especially work of applying fertilizer,
   in scientific and technological way that is connected with grain yield.
   (2.5 min))0300 News and wea ther; Followed by music of Merited State Choir
   at around 0316 GMT0321 (0322) "Everything for the Improvement of the
   People's Living Standards!" header program "Great Fruit Producing Base
   Where Great General's Far-reaching Plan Unfolded Into Reality"

   (This total 17.5 minute program about Taedonggang General Fruit Farm that
   realized the great general's far-reaching plan to carry out the fatherly
   leader's dearest wish to supply more fruit to the people consists of:

   (1) Unattributed talk "Another Rare Scene That Represents the
   Military-first Era" that talks about and looks around fruit storage house
   and apply drying (process) plant and other grounds and facilities of
   Taedonggang General Fruit Farm, large-scale fruit producing base set up at
   Samso'k District (Pyongyang), in between interviews with "Manager Kim
   Ch'ang-ch'o'n"; "Apple Drying (Process) Plant Manager Comrade (Ri
   Ch'ang-yo'p)"; one of the female mechanic s, and one of the family member
   of Comrade Kim Sang-man, whose house that the general visited, who look
   back on the great general's on-the-spot guidance and instruction to the
   plant (15 min)

   (2) Forum by (Female) Leader Comrade Chang So'n-hu'i entitled, "Will Repay
   the General's Favors With Production of More Fruits" about resolution to
   repay the general's love and faith by producing more fruit and supplying
   them to people (2.5 min))0400 Novella "Burning White Snow (pult'anu'n
   paekso'l)" (2) (Installment of novella by "Pak Yun that was published in
   2004, Chuch'e 93" and read by "Pak U'n-a"(15 min)); Followed by music of
   Merited State Choir at 0415 GMT0500 (Unscheduled) Important proclamation
   (chungdae p'ogo) of the Korean People's Army (KPA) General Staff: "(We)
   Will Respond (taeu'ng) to Puppets' Resumption of Anti-Republic
   Psychological Warfare With All-Out Military Strike on All Fronts" (Repeat;
   OSC processed this i mportant proclamation as KPP20100612051003; KCNA
   KPP20100614971056 (3.5 min)); Followed by music at 0503 GMT0506
   (Originally scheduled at 0500 GMT) "Great Man of the Century" header
   music-and-article "Shine Glory, Workers Party of Korea!"

   (Repeat; This program about the song "Hail to the Workers Party of Korea
   (choso'n rodongdang manse)" that sings of invincible party that encourages
   the army and people to advance on single road of chuch'e under the
   general's military-first revolutionary leadership (8 min)); Followed by
   music of Merited State Choir at 0514 GMT

   0600 News and weather

   0700 (Unscheduled) Important proclamation (chungdae p'ogo) of the Korean
   People's Army (KPA) General Staff: "(We) Will Respond (taeu'ng) to
   Puppets' Resumption of Anti-Republic Psychological Warfare With All-Out
   Military Strike on All Fronts" (Repeat of KCBS 0300 GMT 12 June, OSC
   process this item as KPP20100612051003); followed by music

   0700 (Actually carried at 0706 GMT) Program "Let Us Resolutely Smash the
   Rash Desperate Maneuver of Fanatics of Confrontation"

   ((1) Unattributed talk: "Maniac of Confrontation Brining About Calamity of
   a Nuclear War Over the Heads of the People" Talks about how it was agreed
   between the North and South to recognize and respect each others' ideology
   and system; not interfere in each others' internal affairs; and do not
   carry out any acts of destroying the other side, however the South is not
   abiding by this principle aggravating North-South relations, continues to
   denounce how the South is carrying out various anti-reunification acts,
   denounces various South-US military exercises which are aimed at northward
   aggression, it then talks about ship sinking incident, how the South is
   blaming the North for the incident, denounces the Lee regime for clinging
   to confrontational commotion (6 min)

   (2) Platform by Hyo'n Su'ng-mo, head of the bur eau of affairs of Koreans
   residing in Japan: "The Lee Myung-bak (Ri Myo'ng-pak, Yi Myo'ng-pak) Gang
   of Traitors Should Not Carry Out Rash Acts" Talks about how the situation
   on the Korean peninsula is very tense, dangerous, notes how the Lee regime
   is running amok counter to the nation's desire, notes that the whole world
   knows that the ship sinking incident was fabricated by Lee regime, notes
   that is also fabricated new north wind incident to turn the public opinion
   elsewhere and thus escape their political crisis, continues to note how
   the Lee regime is trying to drive situation to confrontation, urges the
   gang of traitors to correctly look at situation and receive judgment
   before history, urges the Lee regime to act with discretion (5 min)

   (3) Repercussions by the international community condemning and denouncing
   the scheming ship sinking incident by the South Korean gang of traitors:
   "(We) Brand and Condemn the Smear Act and Fabricated Act the Unite d
   States and the Lee Myung-bak Gang of Traitors" Talks about how various
   countries France, Great Britain, and Russia denounce the United States and
   South Korea for fabricating the ship sinking incident (4.5 min))

   0752 (Added) Unattributed talk "Putting Efforts in the Work To Educate
   Future Generation"

   (Same title as 14 June Rodong Sinmun page-six article by Cho'n Yo'ng-hu'i
   that notes China's efforts in the work to educate future generation (6.5
   min))

   0800 News; Kindergartners and schoolchildren's music

   0853 (Added during afternoon preview; actually carried at 0849 as " Rodong
   Sinmun commentary") Commentary "Extremely Dangerous Maneuver of
   Cooperation in War of Northward Aggression"

   (OSC plans to process this 14 June Rodong Sinmun page-five commentary by
   U'n Cho'ng-ch'o'l as KPP20100614104003 which notes the puppets' maneuver
   to provoke a war of northward aggression, which is being reinforced upon
   the stra tegic vessel sinking incident, as reaching extremely dangerous
   stage (5 min))

   0900 (Actually carried at 0823 GMT) Unattributed talk "Banner of the Era
   That Adheres To Movement for Independence and Reunification"

   (Talks about significance of historic Pyongyang summit and 15 June Joint
   Declaration which opened great national unity and new era for independent
   reunification, continues to note how the joint declaration is a banner of
   the era in the movement for independent reunification, elaborates on the
   joint declaration which is for peaceful reunification (8 min))

   0900 (Unscheduled) Central report meeting held at the People's Palace of
   Culture to mark the 10 th anniversary of announcement of 15 June Joint
   Declaration. (For details see FYI processed as KPP20100614021001; KCNA
   KPP20100614971111; OSC to process Yang Hyong Sop's (Yang Hyo'ng-so'p)
   report made at the meeting as KPP20100614021002)

   0911 Program "Anti-Reunification Rogues Who Trample on the Nation's
   Dearest Wish for Reunification Will Not be Able To Avoid Fellow
   Countrymen's Stern Judgment" (Not carried)

   0952 (Added during afternoon preview; actually carried as " Rodong Sinmun
   commentary") Commentary "Nonsensical Remarks by Ignorant Fellow"

   (OSC plans to process this 14 June Rodong Sinmun page-six commentary by
   Kim Chong-son as KPP20100614104004.This commentary denounces rash remarks
   that insulted the DPRK by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
   Director General Yukiya Amano at meeting of IAEA Board of Governors that
   opened in Vienna, Austria on 7 June (6.5 min))

   1000 Music (not carried instead carries Important proclamation (chungdae
   p'ogo) of the Korean People's Army (KPA) General Staff: "(We) Will Respond
   (taeu'ng) to Puppets' Resumption of Anti-Republic Psychological Warfare
   With All-Out Military Strike on All Fronts" (Repeat); followed by music)

   1028 Long novel "Spring Thunder (pomuroe)" (6) from collection of works
   "Immortal History;" Segment of novel by So'k Yun-ki

   1100 News and weather

   1128 Great leader (widaehan suryo'ng) Comrade Kim Il Sung (Kim Il-so'ng)'s
   memoirs "With the Century" Part 1 "Anti-Japanese Revolution" Volume 8
   (Succession Volume) (14)

   1200 News and weather

   1224 (Added during afternoon preview; actually carried at 1225 GMT)
   Unattributed talk "Cancer to Middle East's Peace That Harbors Dangerous
   Wicked Scheme for Nuclear"

   (This 14 June Rodong Sinmun page-six unsigned article discloses Israel's
   dangerous wicked scheme and ambition for nuclear program (6 min))

   1300 News

   1319 (Added during afternoon preview) Poem "For the Party and the
   Fatherland (tanggwa chogugu'l wihayo')"

   (Repeat; Poem by Kim Yo'ng-ch'o'l created in 1953; This poem describes the
   scene of a village bombarded by the enemy warplanes and the resolv e of
   servicemen to launch a retaliatory attack against the enemy.The poem also
   portrays the scene of soldiers holed up in trenches waiting to ambush "the
   US imperialists and finally leading the charge in taking their vengeance
   upon the enemy troops that occupied the highland (10 min))

   1337 Broadcast drama based on reminiscences "A Revolutionary Should Always
   Not Be Picky About the Guard Post of the Revolution" (1)

   1400 Appreciation of revolutionary opera music

   1500 Music till sign off

   (Description of Source: Pyongyang Korean Central Broadcasting Station via
   Satellite in Korean -- Satellite feed of DPRK state-run domestic radio
   network)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   31) Back to Top
   Colombia Crime and Narcotics Issues 14 Jun 10 - Colombia -- OSC Summary
   Tuesday June 15, 2010 01:40:25 GMT
   Bogota El Tiempo reports that during Operation "Camaleon" or Operation
   "Maestria" in Guaviare Department, 300 soldiers from the Army's Special
   Forces have rescued General Luis Mendieta, Colonel Luis Enrique Murillo,
   and Sergeant Arbey Argote from the FARC after 12 years in captivity. El
   Tiempo also reports that the authorities started this operation on 12
   March following the capture of alias Marcos Parrilla from the FARC's Front
   1, who demobilized following his capture, and provided information on the
   location where the FARC kept the officers. El Tiempo further reports no
   casualties during the operations and the officers are looking for Colonel
   William Donato, who separated from Sergeant Arbey Argote during the
   operati on to increase the possibility of success. (Bogota eltiempo.com in
   Spanish -- Website of pro-Liberal Party, most influential newspaper
   published by Casa Editorial El Tiempo with the largest circulation in
   Colombia; URL:

   http://www.eltiempo.com/ http://www.eltiempo.com ) Daily Reports on Money
   Laundering Scheme Using Emerald Business, Soccer Club --

   Bogota El Tiempo reports that New York District Prosecutor Bonnie Klaper
   is planning to reveal all the evidence in a process in which the Santa Fe
   Soccer Club appears in the middle of a scandalous and gigantic money
   laundering operation. El Tiempo also reports that pending closing of the
   investigation is the tracking of dozens of transactions by emerald
   businessman Alberto Lozano Pirateque, alias Don Jota, or alias Patico, who
   owns 50% of an emerald concession and who according to US authorities is
   the missing link in a story running through Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil,
   and other businesses in Colombia. El Tiempo also confirmed that Interpol
   has issued a red notice against Lozano for drug trafficking and money
   laundering, and that he has been sentenced to 20 years in prison in the
   United States. El Tiempo further reports that even though the
   investigation is not against the soccer club there are clear indications
   of "the connection between Lozano and the other two persons indicted,
   Claudio Javier Silva Otalora, and Luis Agustin Caicedo Velandia, and the
   soccer team and with money laundering totaling $1.5 billion. The
   mechanism: showing phony emerald sales and the investments of front men
   entering the soccer club." Army, Navy Forces Destroy Three Cocaine Labs in
   Cauca, Putumayo --

   Bogota El Espectador reports that the National Navy's 2nd Battalion
   counternarcotics troops have found and destroyed two cocaine laboratories
   in Miranda in Cauca Department allegedly belonging to the FARC's Front 6.
   During the operation, the authorities seized 250 gallons of gasoline, 200
   k g of coca leaf in process, 25 kg of lime, 25 kg of caustic soda, and 20
   kg of urea. El Espectador also reports that troops from the Army Special
   Battalion have destroyed a cocaine laboratory in Orito in Putumayo
   Department. During the operation, the authorities seized 150 kg of coca
   leaf in process, 10 kg of lime, and 25 gallons of gasoline. (Bogota
   elespectador.com in Spanish -- Website of right-leaning daily owned by
   Bavaria Group and Santodomingo family; URL:

   http://www.elespectador.com/ http://www.elespectador.com ) Authorities
   Prevent Extortion Payment Worth 1.3 Billion Pesos --

   Bogota El Espectador reports that following a 60-day investigation by
   Gaula (Police Unified Action Groups To Rescue Kidnap Victims) officers and
   DAS (Administrative Department of Security) agents in Cundinamarca
   Department, the authorities have prevented a 1.3 billion pesos (about
   $674,834) extortion payment in Neiva in Huila Department. El Espectador
   also reports that the authori ties captured three persons when they were
   receiving 60 million pesos (about $31,146) from the businessman who was
   being extorted. Weekly Reports Person With Suits Against Government Worth
   300 Billion Pesos --

   Bogota Semana reports that Edgar Botero Henao, an engineer who at one
   point worked building roads, is now the adviser for engineering companies
   with 300 billion pesos (about $155.73 million) worth of lawsuits against
   the state. Semana also reports on a 59 billion pesos (about $30.63
   million) payment the Invias (National Roads Institute) has to make to
   seven companies in a 25-year-old lawsuit involving a 22 km road worth 690
   million pesos (about $358,181) at the time. Semana further reports that
   Botero is a minority stakeholder in one of the firms in the litigation.
   Also reported by the weekly is the fact that Invias lawyers and
   prosecutors from the Attorney General's Office went to a guarantee judge
   to stop the 59 billion pesos payment, arguing irregularities a nd to
   prevent embezzlement, but the hearing did not take place. Former
   Transportation Minister Gustavo Canal pointed out that "what is happening
   here is an absolutely gigantic corruption case." Semana concludes that the
   seven firms advised by Botero, who already received 24 billion pesos
   (about $12.45 million) for this case, "are relaxed because they know that
   every day of delay in payment increases the amount to receive due from
   interest." (Bogota Semana.com in Spanish -- Website of private, most
   influential weekly news magazine; URL:

   http://www.semana.com/ http://www.semana.com ) Authorities Rescue Three
   Persons From Kidnappers in Choco --

   Bogota Office of the President of the Republic reports that President
   Alvaro Uribe has thanked law enforcement officials for the rescue of three
   employees of a road building company who were kidnapped on 2 June in Choco
   Department. President Uribe also said that "we have to avoid getting used
   to the kidnapping of engineers building roads." (Bogota Office of the
   President in Spanish - Official website of the Colombian Presidency; URL:

   http://web.presidencia.gov.co/ http://web.presidencia.gov.co/ )
   Authorities Capture Two Persons Allegedly Involved in Card Cloning in
   Bogota -- Bogota Caracol Radio Online reports that Bogota Metropolitan
   Police officers have captured Guillermo Alonso Ardila Arenas and Giovanny
   Torres Calderon, who were members of a gang stealing more than 100 million
   pesos (about $51,910) on a monthly basis using cloned cards.
   Investigations show that "employees in some financial institutions
   cooperated with this gang." Ardila and Torres have been charged with
   misrepresentation of a public document and abusive access to information
   systems. (Bogota Caracol Radio Online in Spanish -- Website of private
   radio station owned by Spain's Promotora de Informaciones, S.A. (Prisa);
   URL:

   http://www.caracol.com.co/ http://www.caracol. com.co ) Authorities in
   Argentina Deny Release for Alleged Colombian Drug Trafficker Wanted by
   United States --

   Bogota Caracol Radio Online reports that the authorities in Argentina
   denied a request for release from prison for Luis Agustin Caicedo
   Velandia, alias Don Lucho, who has been charged with being the leader of a
   major drug trafficking gang and who is wanted for extradition by the
   United States. The website also reports that the magistrate argued that if
   Caicedo were released from prison he could escape and that will hinder the
   extradition request. Caicedo, who was captured in Argentina, was
   trafficking narcotics and then sent the money to Colombia through Mexico.
   The following media were scanned and no file-worthy items were noted:

   (Bogota Cambio.com.co in Spanish)(Medellin El Colombiano.com in
   Spanish)(Barranquilla EL HERALDO.COM.CO in Spanish)(Cali El Pais in
   Spanish)(Cartagena El Universal Online in Spanish)(Bucaramanga
   Vanguardia.com in Spanish)(B ogota RCN Television Online in Spanis
   h)(Bogota National Navy of the Republic of Colombia in Spanish)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   32) Back to Top
   S. Korea to Complete Design of New Mid-size Reactor By Late 2010 - Yonhap
   Monday June 14, 2010 02:35:45 GMT
   S. Korea to complete design of new mid-size reactor by late 2010

   SEOUL, June 14 (Yonhap) -- South Korea will complete a "standard design"
   for a new type of mid-size fission reactor unit by the end of this year as
   part of its efforts to lead the global atomic energy market, the
   government said Monday.The Ministry of Educati on, Science and Technology
   said a consortium led by Korea Electric Power Corp. and made up of 13
   companies, including POSCO and STX Heavy Industries Co., agreed to invest
   100 billion won (US$81.7 million) to complete design work and technical
   verification of the system integrated modular advanced reactor (SMART).The
   state-run Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute will foot an additional
   70 billion won with authorization for construction to be approved next
   year after a detailed review by the Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, it
   said.SMART is expected to have a power output of around 100 megawatts and
   is designed to be smaller, cheaper and easier to operate than the current
   generation of conventional reactors, which have a power output exceeding
   1,000 megawatts of power."It will be a reactor suitable for developing
   countries that do not have large-capacity transmission and distribution
   power grids," a government official said.He said South Korea would decide
   in 20 11 if it would build a testbed reactor in the country that can be
   used to show prospective overseas customers the feasibility and safety
   features of the system.Local work on SMART began in 1997, with a total of
   140.1 billion won poured into research and development so far.Such
   smaller-size units may cost around 500 billion won to build, compared to
   several trillion won for larger reactors.These reactors can provide
   electricity for up to 100,000 people, and if a desalination plant is added
   to the design, provide large quantities of drinking water.The ministry,
   meanwhile, said studies conducted by the U.S. Department of Energy claimed
   around 700 SMART-like compact reactors worth 350 trillion won may be built
   by 2030.The United States and Argentina are also engaged in the
   development of compact reactors called mPower and CAREM units.The
   establishment of the SMART consortium is part of the larger South Korean
   goal of becoming one of the top three exporters of nuclear reactors, a
   long with the United States and France, by 2030.The country has secured a
   deal to build four 1,400 megawatt reactors for the United Arab Emirates by
   2020 and is aiming to win a contract to build an atomic power plant in
   Turkey.

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   33) Back to Top
   Today In History - Central News Agency
   Monday June 14, 2010 01:15:02 GMT
   Taipei, June 14 (CNA) -- Today is Monday, June 14, or the third day of the
   fifth month of the Year of the Tiger according to the lunar calendar.
   Following is a list of important events that have occurred on this date in
   the past: 1777: The US Congres s adopts the "Stars and Stripes" as the
   official flag of the United States.

   1838: Yamagata Aritomo, Japanese soldier and twice prime minister, is
   born. He played a major role in turning Japan into a formidable military
   power.1894: After displaying the first commercial motion-picture machine
   at the World's Colombian Exposition in 1893, Thomas Alva Edison's company
   presents the first sports-related movie on boxing.1900: The first Grand
   Prix, or international car race, takes place in Paris.1920: In China, war
   between the Chihli and Anhwei warlords breaks out. Tsao Kun of the Chihli
   faction and Chang Tso-lin of the Fengtien faction join forces to fight
   against Tuan Chi-jui of the Anhwei faction.1936: Chang Tai-yen, a noted
   scholar of Chinese literature, dies in Soochow at the age of 67.1940:
   German troops march into Paris, and the flag of Nazi Germany, bearing the
   swastika, is hoisted up the Eiffel Tower.1941: President Franklin D.
   Roosevelt orders the freezing of all German and Italian assets in the
   United States.1943: The Battle of West Hupeh ends with Japanese troops
   driven back to their previous positions.1949: Bao Dai is installed as
   president of Vietnam.1952: The Nautilus, the first nuclear-powered
   submarine, is put on public display in the United States.1955: The
   Republic of China and the United States sign an agreement in Washington on
   the peaceful use of nuclear energy.1964: In the ROC, the NT$3.2 billion
   multipurpose Shihmen Dam is dedicated.1971: The Tourism Bureau under the
   Ministry of Communications is inaugurated in Taipei.1973: A 10-member
   Chinese national judo team headed by Mao Ming-chu leaves for Lausanne to
   take part in the 8th world championships.1974: Vice Premier Hsu
   Ching-chung and Deputy Premier Cuthbert Edwy Talma of the Barbados sign a
   joint communique in Taipei announcing the extension of the Sino-Barbados
   agricultural technical cooperation agreement.1975: More than 500 Chinese
   poets and Dr. Jeno Platthy, chairman of the Organizing Committee of the
   Third World Congress of Poets, gathered in Taipei to celebrate Chinese
   Poets Day and pay homage to poet Chu Yuan of the period of Spring and
   Autumn Annals.1978: A technical cooperation agreement between Saudi Arabia
   and the Republic of China is signed.1979: President Chiang Ching-kuo
   appoints Huang Shao-ku and Hung Shou-nan as president and vice president
   of the Judicial Yuan, respectively, following unanimous approval by the
   Control Yuan.1982: Argentine troops surrender to the British commander of
   land forces in the Falklands, marking the end of a six-week conflict that
   cost 254 British and 750 Argentine lives.1982: President Chiang Ching-kuo
   visits the Saudi Arabian Embassy in Taipei to extend his condolences over
   the passing of King Khalid ibn abdul Aziz.1989: Former governor of
   California and US President Ronald Reagan is knighted by Queen Elizabeth
   II.1992: Ronald Freeman, vice president of the European Bank for
   Reconstructio n and Development, visits the ROC to discuss Sino-European
   trade and financial relations.2000: U.S. President Bill Clinton sends his
   greetings to the participants in the 24th annual Joint Business Conference
   of the U.S.-ROC (Taiwan) and ROC-U.S.A. Business Councils, which kicks off
   in Taipei.2001: A 23-member mainland Chinese delegation arrives in Taipei
   to take part in an unprecedented cross-Taiwan Strait long-distance race as
   part of a campaign for mainland China's bid to win the right to host the
   2008 Olympic Games.Confucius' lesson of the day: "Your meek men of
   respectability, are they who unmercifully destroy all sense of moral
   sentiment in man."(Description of Source: Taipei Central News Agency in
   English -- "Central News Agency (CNA)," Taiwan's major state-run press
   agency; generally favors ruling administration in its coverage of domestic
   and international affairs; URL: http://www.cna.com.tw)

   Material in the World News Connection is general ly copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   34) Back to Top
   Bolivia Press 14 June 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Bolivia -- OSC Summary
   Monday June 14, 2010 09:40:14 GMT
   -- Cochabamba Los Tiempos reports that a power pylon was damaged on 12
   June causing a 30-minute power cut in more than a third of the city of
   Cochabamba. The damage is thought to have been caused by a dynamite attack
   although no-one has yet claimed responsibility. (Cochabamba Los
   Tiempos.com in Spanish -- Website of conservative newspaper with widest
   circulation in Cochabamba, owned by the Canelas family. Published in
   partnership with the Rivero family, member of the Grupo Lider media
   conglomerate which also includes PAT (Periodistas Asociados de Television)
   television network, owned by the Daher family of Santa Cruz; URL:

   http://www.lostiempos.com/ http://www.lostiempos.com ) Foreign Ministry
   Appeals to UN Not To Waste Opportunity To Listen to Peoples

   -- Cochabamba Los Tiempos reports that the Foreign Ministry has issued a
   communique appealing to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
   Change (UNFCCC) to include proposals being made by social movements. The
   communique was issued after a recent UNFCCC meeting in Bonn excluded
   several suggestions including the conclusions of the World People's
   Conference on Climate Change held in Tiquipaya in April. "Do not waste
   this third opportunity to present a text that really reflects the position
   of all parties. Listen to everyone. Especially listen to those who suffer
   most from the impacts of climate change although th ey are least
   responsible for this serious threat. Listen to the peoples. Listen to
   Mother Earth," Ambassador to the UN Pablo Solon said. Opposition Accuses
   Government of Losing Interest in Sea Demand

   -- Cochabamba Los Tiempos cites Fides News Agency as reporting that
   Bolivia's maritime demand was excluded from the OAS agenda for the first
   time in 30 years at the 8-10 June annual assembly meeting in Lima.
   Progress Plan Bolivia Deputy Franz Choque accused the government yesterday
   of losing interest in Bolivia's sea demand and the Foreign Ministry of
   negligence on failing to ensure its inclusion on the agenda. Government
   Assigns Importance To US Arms Case

   -- Bolivian Government News Agency (ABI) reports that Defense Minister
   Ruben Saavedra said yesterday that the conclusions of Prosecutor Marcelo
   Soza's current investigations into a case of arms trafficking in the
   United States could be very important. "If the US Criminal Court condemns
   (Bolivians) Mr Al fredo Asbun and Alfredo Rodriguez in the United States,
   we could basically know the contacts these people had with the (Bolivian)
   political world," Saavedra said. (La Paz Agencia Boliviana de Informacion
   in Spanish -- Website of government-owned news agency; URL:

   http://abi.bo/ http://abi.bo/ ) Chapare Coca Growers Await
   Industrialization Projects

   -- Santa Cruz El Deber publishes an investigative report into coca
   production in the Chapare region since President Evo Morales came into
   power. It cites a coca federation leader as saying that he is caught
   between respecting government policy and the coca growers' demands to
   increase coca crop areas, but says the farmers will wait for the results
   of the legal coca study before increasing crops for industrialization.
   (Santa Cruz de la Sierra El Deber.com.bo in Spanish -- Website of
   conservative, influential, pro-business, regional newspaper with the most
   prestige and widest circulation nationwide. Owned by the Ri vero family,
   member of the Grupo Lider media conglomerate which also includes PAT
   (Periodistas Asociados de Television) television network, recently
   acquired by the Daher family of Santa Cruz; URL:

   http://www.eldeber.com.bo/ http://www.eldeber.com.bo ) FELCN Says Drug
   Groups From Eight Countries Operate in Bolivia

   -- La Paz La Razon reports that the Special Antinarcotics Force (FELCN)
   sources have indicated that groups from eight different countri es are
   operating in Bolivia, although the biggest groups are Colombians and
   Brazilians. (La Paz La Razon Online in Spanish -- Digital version of
   conservative newspaper, owned by the Spanish Promotora de Informaciones,
   S. A. (Prisa) media conglomerate, which also includes ATB Red Nacional de
   Television. Although it is not part of Grupo de Diarios de America, it
   reproduces special reports by this group of conservative Latin America
   dailies; URL:

   http://www.la-razon.com http://www.la-razon.com ) Cartoonist Depicts
   Government X-Ray Eye on USAID

   -- Trond cartoon in

   La Razon depicts Vice President Alvaro Garcia observing an Uncle Sam
   figure giving a hamburger labeled "US aid" with a hidden "agenda" to some
   Bolivians.

   La Paz La Prensa.com in Spanish was not updated at time of release

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   35) Back to Top
   Greek Press 12 Jun 10
   The following lists selected items from the Greek Press on 12 June; To
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735, or fax (703) 613-5735 - Greece -- OSC Summary
   Monday June 14, 2010 10:59:57 GMT
   --

   Ang. Athanasopoulos reports on page 9 of Athens To Vima that the United
   States is pressing for a settlement of the Macedonian name issue prior to
   the November NATO meeting. (500 words)

   On page 9 Ang. Athanasopoulos reports that Turkey is maneuvering through
   ICAO to avoid submitting flight plans for its military aircraft flying
   into Aegean airspace; and how Greece is trying to thwart this. (500 words)
   (OSC will process this item)

   Y. Skordhilis reports that the Greek government's sluggish action to
   resolve the blockade the naval labor union is imposing on Italian-owned,
   British flagged ro-ro vessels in Korinthos is on the verge of causing "a
   diplomatic incident." (page 10, 300 words) (Athens To Vima--independent
   daily, critical of the New Democracy party) (OSC will process this item)

   Athens Ta Nea has a report by Aristotelia Peloni that the Greek government
   is concerned by Turkey's "Islamic slide," towar ds Iran and against
   Israel. Peloni says that Athens fears that Greek-Turkish relations "may
   assume second place, and also it is concerned about the domestic
   repercussions of this shift, and the consequences on (Turkish PM)
   Erdogan." (page 30, 500 words) (Athens Ta Nea--left-of-center daily) (OSC
   will process this item) Turkish - Israeli Relations

   --

   Athens O Kosmos Tou Ependhiti has a report and commentary by Khristina
   Poulidhou referring to recent developments in Turkish-Israeli relations
   and the Israeli assault on the flotilla. The headline an subheads read
   "While (Turkish PM) Erdogan is hailed the new 'caliphs' of Moslems
   everywhere, his political foes are shooting down his choices, Israel is
   being vilified the world over;" "was it a trap Israel set for Turkey or
   vice versa?" (page 29, 600 words) (Athens O Kosmos tou
   Ependhiti--Independent, political and economic weekly) (OSC will process
   this item) Energy

   --

   Athens O Kosmos Tou Ependhiti carries an interview with Environment,
   Energy and Climate Change Minister Tina Birmbili by Thodhoris Panagoulis.
   Birmbili refers to the government's existing and coming plans for
   increasing energy efficiency and clean energy production; on the
   government's privatization program regarding energy; and on the "snags" to
   the major projects, including the Burgas - Alexandroupolis pipeline. (page
   9 of the financial section, 700 words) (OSC will process this item)

   Athens To Vima has an unattributed report that Bulgaria has scuppered the
   Burgas-Alexandroupolis pipeline project. (page 19, 200 words) Domestic
   Political, Domestic Economic; PASOK

   --

   Athens O Kosmos Tou Ependhiti has a report by Panos Kosmas describing the
   key provisions of the bill to be tabled in the week of 14 June, regarding
   "fiscal governance." Kosmas describes it as "the third pylon" of the
   government's economic policy, following taxation and social security
   reform. He says that the bill will introduce "seismic" changes in fiscal
   matters; "will change radically the way in which the budget will be
   drafted, monitored and implemented;" will introduce controls of public
   revenue and expenditure;" moreover it will disclose all the figures. (page
   5 of the financial section, 700 words) (OSC will process this item)

   A commentary and report by Stavros Liyeros says that in the eyes of the
   electorate, the two leading parties are discredited; the crisis in
   political representation has assumed "unprecedented dimensions" and that
   the financial crisis with its social repercussions is hastening the
   process. Liyeros lists actions, tactics, errors and omissions by the major
   political figures (PM Papandreou, ND Chairman Samaras, Dora Bakoyianni) to
   suggest that bipolarity "and autonomous governments" may be on the way
   out. (page 6, 800 words)

   Andreas Konstand akatos reports that the local government elections in the
   Fall are the next electoral milestone for the government and that already
   the fear of political fallout is impacting negatively on the governments'
   effectiveness; moreover that certain government ministers persist in
   trying to consolidate their own positions. (page 10, 700 words)

   There is an interview with Justice Minister Kharis Kastanidhis by Lambros
   Kalarritis. Kastanidhis describes how he intends to make it more difficult
   for ministers to enjoy immunity for their misdeeds; and refers to a
   "partisan" judiciary. (page 18, 800 words)

   On page 21 a report by Dhimitris Maris lists highlights from the annual
   report by the Public Administration Watchdog Authority to demonstrate
   "seven typical cases of corruption." (500 words)

   Dhimitris Kokkoris and Yeoryios Perdhikis report that the higher taxation
   being imposed on corporations' profits (ranging between 24-45percent
   depending o n whether retained or distributed) is leading many
   corporations to change their registered office to countries in the EU, in
   which the taxation ranges between 10 to 16 percent; and how this is
   alarming the government. (page 5 of the financial section, 700 words) (OSC
   will process this item)

   A report by Dh. Nikolakopoulos on page 3 of Athens To Vima says that the
   implementation of the "Kallikratis" local government reform program will
   result in massive shifts in civil servants, local government employees and
   employees of state-controlled corporations. He says that initially, until
   31 July, the employees will state their preference for the position or
   service they wish to move to; failing which, between August and September
   they will be told where they are moving to. The report says that 10,000
   individuals will be employed in local government by end 2010, down from
   35,000 last year. (500 words)

   A report by Fotini Kalliri on page 15 of Athens I Kathi merini says that
   the government will carry put a census of civil servants and individuals
   on state payroll, to be conducted from 12 July; and that it is hoped that
   by the end of the year it will know how many individuals are on its
   payroll. (300 words) (Athens I Kathimerini--influential independent daily)

   The editorial on page 8 of Athens Ethnos says that while the government's
   measures for reforming the civil service may be painful, "they are
   necessary." (Athens Ethnos--left-of-center daily) ND

   --

   Athens O Kosmos Tou Ependhiti carries an article by ND Chairman Andonis
   Samaras with the headline "the ideological awakening of the center-right."
   (page 8, 600 words ) (OSC will process this item)

   A report by A. Ravanos on page 8 of Athens To Vima says that the "(former
   PM) Karamanlis stalwarts" are seeking election and appointments to key
   party posts; and the resistance they are meeting from "Samaras" faction
   members. (500 words) Dora Bakoyianni

   --

   An unattributed report on page 8 of Athens To Vima says that Dora
   Bakoyianni is building bridges with liberals in Europe. The report refers
   to her coming meetings with Christian Democrat and Free Democratic Party
   figures in Germany. (300 words) (OSC will process this item) Sinaspismos
   and SIRIZA

   --

   A report by Vangelis Papadhimitriou on pages 22-23 of Athens O Kosmos Tou
   Ependhiti the departure of the four deputies of the reformist faction
   threatens Siriza's coherence and Sinaspismos' future. The headline and
   subhead read "Lafazanis, Alavanos and (Siriza's) constituent elements
   constitute a quadruple blow to (Sinaspismos Chairman) Tsipras." (500
   words) (OSC will process this item)

   Athens Ta Nea has an article by professor Yiannis Voulgaris profiling the
   elements of the "meta-communist" left wing and analyzing why Sinaspismos
   and Siriza have parted ways. (page 9, 800 words) ( OSC will process this
   item) Military

   --

   In the military column of Athens O Kosmos Tou Ependhiti, there is a report
   and commentary by Manos Iliadhis arguing that seven months into this
   government's tenure, the situation in the defense field continues to be
   characterized by an evident by now indecision, if not inertia." Iliadhis
   suggests that Defense Minister Venizelos "is being briefed
   'insufficiently';" and that "vagueness and confusion reigns regarding arms
   procurements." (page 39, 500 words) Security

   --

   Athens O Kosmos Tou Ependhiti carries a report by Manolis Stavrakakis
   describing the Security Ministry's plan devised to "save" the center of
   Athens, addressing the problems which have arisen from "street vendors,
   petty crime by illegal immigrants, unsanitary points of food sale, drugs,
   brothels, the homeless, abandoned buildings." (pages 24-25, 900 words)
   Immigration

   --

   Athens I Kath imerini has a report by Maria Dhelithanasi that the Frontex
   patrols of the sea have reduced illegal landings on Agathonissi island in
   the Aegean by 70 percent. The report mentions how Turkey is using vague
   wording in an agreement to avoid having to receive apprehended illegal
   immigrants deriving from its shores. (page 3, 900 words) (OSC will process
   this item)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   36) Back to Top
   US State Department Says DPRK Remains Among 12 'Worst' Human Trafficking
   Countries
   Updated version: "UPDATES with more details, background throughout;"
   Yonhap headline: "N. Korea Remains Among 12 Worst Human Trafficking
   Countries: State Dept." by Hwang Doo-hyong - Yonhap
   Monday June 14, 2010 23:14:23 GMT
   countries in human trafficking, along with 12 other nations, the U.S.
   State Department said Monday.

   The 2010 Trafficking in Persons Report categorized North Korea with other
   Tier 3 countries that "do not fully comply with the minimum standards and
   are not making significant efforts to do so" under the Trafficking Victims
   Protection Act.The congressionally mandated report cited North Koreans
   subjected to human trafficking in neighboring China while seeking food,
   work and freedom."North Korea continues to be a Tier 3 country in this
   year's report," Luis Cdebaca, director of the office to monitor and combat
   trafficking in persons, told reporters. "We have not seen any indication
   that the North Korean government is actually addressing the
   human-trafficking problem."North Korea has been on the list sinc e
   2003.The other countries with the worst records are Congo, Cuba, the
   Dominican Republic, Eritrea, Iran, Kuwait, Mauritania, Myanmar, Papua New
   Guinea, Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Zimbabwe.The U.S. government imposes
   financial sanctions and a ban on humanitarian aid on Tier 3 countries for
   two straight years.South Korea was listed among Tier 1 countries, which
   fully comply with the minimum standards on human trafficking."The
   Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea) is a source
   country for men, women, and children who are subjected to trafficking in
   persons, specifically forced labor and forced prostitution," the report
   said. "The most common form of trafficking involves North Korean women and
   girls forced into marriage or prostitution in China. Women and girls from
   North Korea migrate to China, often with the help of a facilitator,
   seeking food, work, freedom, and better life prospects."China has been
   under criticism for repatriating North Korean refugees under a secret
   agreement with North Korea, categorizing defectors as economic immigrants
   rather than refugees, despite the danger of them being persecuted back
   home."If found by Chinese authorities, victims are deported back to North
   Korea, where they may face harsh punishment, and may be subject to forced
   labor in DPRK labor camps," the report said. "NGOs and researchers
   estimate that tens of thousands of undocumented North Koreans currently
   live in northeast China, and as many as 70 percent of them are women.
   Their status in China as economic migrants who may be deported to North
   Korea makes them particularly vulnerable to trafficking."NGO stands for
   nongovernmental organization.A human rights report released by the State
   Department in March said that hundreds of thousands of North Korean
   refugees defected to China last year.Repatriated North Koreans are subject
   to "a minimum of five years of labor correction," or "indefi nite terms of
   imprisonment and forced labor, confiscation of property, or death," the
   rights report said.Most North Korean refugees, fleeing poverty, head to
   South Korea via neighboring China.South Korea has received about 18,000
   North Korean defectors since the end of the 1950-1953 Korean War. The U.S.
   has taken in nearly 100 North Korean refugees since the North Korean Human
   Rights Act of 2004.The U.S. raised the refugee issue during the first
   human rights dialogue with China under the Obama administration held last
   month."I think again this is an area -- maybe another area where a more
   regular discussion about refugee protection issues could be a very useful
   thing," Michael Posner, assistant secretary for democracy, human rights
   and labor, said at the time. "And we're certainly following those cases
   and we'll continue to raise them."Cdebaca said, "What we'd like to see
   from the government of China is that there would be actual screening of pe
   ople within that refugee flow to see which are the people who are actually
   trafficking victims... We'd like to see more screening and then more
   victim protections on the part of the Chi nese government."The official
   also expressed concerns about reports of abuse of North Korean workers
   abroad."When the North Korean government exports labor to other countries,
   are those people -- in the places that they're going -- do they have a
   modicum of freedom there? Or is the government sending, whether it's
   police or security services or others with them in order to keep them in
   line?" he said. "I think the Czech Republic actually terminated their
   contracts with (North Korea) because of their concerns of the type of
   abuse that was happening with the exported North Korean
   laborers."(Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial
   news agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   37) Back to Top
   Thai Column Says ASEAN 'Needs' To Pressure Burma To Clarify Nuclear Plan
   Commentary by Kavi Chongkittavorn: "Regional Response Needed for Burma's
   Nuclear Ambition" - The Nation Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 06:27:54 GMT
   US Senator James Webb, chairman of the East Asia and Pacific Affairs
   Subcommittee of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, abruptly postponed
   his visit to Burma June 3 - only a few hours before his scheduled flight
   after learning of a report about Burma's nuclear ambitions.It was a bad
   time for such a trip, he said, due to new allegations the Rangoon junta
   leaders were col laborating with Pyongyang to develop a nuclear program. A
   few days ago, after his return to the US, Asean ambassador Scot Marciel
   said that if the allegation was true, it would impact on stability and
   security in the region.Webb would not have taken such a drastic step if he
   had not been influenced the report produced by the Norway-based Democratic
   Voice of Burma, through Al Jazeera, that alleged Burma was moving towards
   nuclear technology.Since last August, he had miraculously widened US
   engagement with Burma and created storms of controversy followed the first
   high-level contact by any US political figure. He had always hoped to
   bring peaceful change and prosperity to Burma, as he once did in
   Vietnam.However, the 10-month intensified dialogue and contacts between
   the US and Burma, symbolised by the two trips of Kurt Campbell, Assistant
   Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs, had not yet produced
   breakthroughs or the kind of regime that the US or the internati onal
   community would like to see - a regime that promised an inclusive, free
   and fair election with creditable international poll monitoring.Equally
   important to the US agenda was ensuring that there was no violation of the
   UN Security Resolution 1874 that imposes sanctions against North Korea.
   Indeed, these endeavours have resulted in continued frustration.Worse is
   the prospect of stronger Burma-North Korea relations. Both are rogue
   states, which were enemies for the past 23 years. Now they are each
   other's best friend amid growing international isolation and tightening
   economic sanctions. Thanks to Pyongyang's willingness and foreign-exchange
   needs, Burma's nuclear confidence has shot up to the point that one day it
   would have the kind of bargaining power enjoyed by other nuclear
   aspirants.After decades of complacency, the Thai security apparatus,
   especially the National Security Council (NSC), has finally paid more
   attention to its long-standing assumption that Burma does not and will not
   have the capacity to assemble a nuclear bomb.The main argument was
   simplistic - Burma is poor and backward so it is highly unlikely for the
   country to embark on the project. In addition, persons familiar with NSC
   analyses of Burma would immediately recognise the narrative pattern of
   "appeasement" and "don't rock the boat" syndrome in handling its western
   neighbour.The often-cited justifications are fragile security along the
   porous 2004 kilometre border, and Thailand's growing dependency on natural
   gas from the Gulf of Martaban.Last year, the Foreign Ministry asked
   energy-related agencies and their top decision makers to come up with
   policy options to reduce energy needs from Burma and other neighbours. So
   far, they have not yet done so, arguing much was at stake as lump sums of
   money had been invested already in the natural-gas related development
   projects with Burma. Thailand imports an estimated US$880 million (Bt28.5
   trillion) worth of energy from Burma annually. From their vantage point,
   preservation of status quo at any cost was desirable, fearing the
   country's future energy security would be compromised.An additional
   problem is the deep-rooted fear of Burma's aggression (what the Burmese
   generals can and are willing to do against this country and its
   people).Anytime the word "Pha-mah"- meaning Burma in Thai - is mentioned
   to ordinary Thais, not to mention the authorities, they are likely to go
   hysterical with negative comments and endless condemnation. It immediately
   conjures up the heartless burning of Ayutthya, which took place in 1774 --
   some 236 years ago. However, to Thais the to tal annihilation of the
   Siamese capital is as vivid as ever with the aid of numerous historical
   books, dramas, folk tales and word of mouth. One would think that such
   phobia should serve as a kind of energiser to consolidate the Thai
   security officials and related agencies to look for common policy options
   to counter Burma's move. It has not happened.Strangely enough, the Thai
   military's intelligence officials, who have been working closely with the
   US and Australian counterparts in tracking the junta's nuclear ambitions
   for the past decade, knew all along of this dangerous ambition - but they
   have not shared information or made serious assessments with the energy
   sector.No wonder Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya is concerned as he is and
   kept informed of Burma's well-kept secret. It is possible that Thailand,
   along with other Asean members, might raise the nuclear weapons programme
   at the Asean foreign ministerial meeting next month in Hanoi (July 9-13)
   asking Rangoon to further clarify the issue. Nobody expects Burma to tell
   the truth. But Asean needs to put the issue on record as its reputation is
   at stake, especially at the time the grouping wants to increase its
   profile to promote peace and stability as well as economic well-being
   internationally. After all, Burma was among th e ten signatories to the
   region's first no-nuke treaty, the Southeast Asian Nuclear Weapon Free
   Zone. Asean is also party to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, but quite a few
   members have not yet ratified it.The Obama administration has been pushing
   for a nuclear-free world and trying to rid it of potential nuclear
   terrorists. Expectation in the region is high that the US would continue
   to pressure Burma internationally to comply with the relevant UN
   resolutions as well as any future engagement for the Vienna-based
   International Atomic Energy Agency to inspect all nuclear-related
   allegations. Sooner than later, Asean must take up Burma's nuclear plan
   and other global issues to iron out differences in order to forge common
   views and positions, which the Asean foreign ministers have to submit to
   their leaders at the Asean Summit in October in Hanoi.

   (Description of Source: Bangkok The Nation Online in English -- Website of
   a daily newspaper with "a firm focus on in-dep th business and political
   coverage." Widely read by the Thai elite. Audited hardcopy circulation of
   60,000 as of 2009. URL: http://www.nationmultimedia.com.)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   38) Back to Top
   RMRB Article Says World Must not Wait in Handling Climate Change Matters
   Article by RMRB editor Xin Benjian: "The World Must not Hesitate in
   Combating Climate Change" Ctirlg: - Renmin Ribao (Overseas Edition) Online
   Tuesday June 15, 2010 03:03:42 GMT
   Following the frustrations the world had in Copenhagen, Denmark, in
   combating climate change, climate change skeptics have a gain stepped
   forward to question loudly the veracity of the global warming claim. The
   flawed characterization -- that "the Himalayas glaciers may vanish in
   2035" -- that the UN Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) made
   in its 2007 report on global climate change, and the 2009 "climategate" in
   which some scientists in Britain had deliberately hidden certain figures
   that did not support rising temperatures have become the proofs these
   skeptics use. In an article published earlier this year, Germany's weekly,
   Der Spiegel, claims that research figures show that the global
   temperatures have been quite stable and have not risen in the last decade.
   The New York Times, the US paper that consistently supports the viewpoint
   that the global climate is getting warm, also published on its front page
   in early February this year the skeptics' viewpoints and criticized the
   IPCC report for its bias. This year, the US Senate simply has not placed
   the US Clean E nergy and Security Act on its voting agenda.

   However, many scientists who support the view that the global temperatures
   are rising have not stopped their efforts to combat climate change. China
   has put forth the "Carbon Allocation Plan Based on Accumulated Per Capita
   Emissions." The plan, which proposes that each and everybody should enjoy
   the right to development and carbon allocation based on the per-capita
   principle, has taken into consideration developed countries' historical
   obligations and universal equitability in climate matters.

   In early May this year, 255 academicians of the US National Academy of
   Sciences (including 11 Nobel Prize laureates), co-signed an open letter
   published in the authoritative Science magazine. They hold this in the
   letter: "Scientific conclusions always have certain uncertainties, and
   science can never absolutely prove anything. When someone says that
   society should not act until scientists are absolutely sure, it is the
   same as saying that society should never take action. As far as climate
   change is concerned, which is an issue that may cause great catastrophes,
   no action means that our planet will face situations threatening;" and the
   events, such as the "climategate" that occurred recently, cannot change
   the basic conclusion that "the earth is warming up."

   While the climate change skeptics can question the veracity of the claim
   about rising global temperatures, they cannot evade the reality that
   mankind's sustainable development is facing serious challenges. The
   limited reserves of fossil fuels, such as coal, oil and natural gas, and
   the serious environmental pollution caused by the use of these fuels, have
   compelled us to change the modes of our current energy consumption and
   economic development and to adopt the low-carbon economic development mode
   that conserves energy and reduces emissions.

   As far as China is concerned, no matter whether the global climate is
   warming, China must change its development mode that "consumes great
   amounts of energy, causes high pollution, and produces high emissions."
   China is now in the process where industrialization and urbanization are
   picking up speed. The country's energy structure and resource endowment
   marked by "ample coal but little oil and natural gas resources" as wel l
   as the factors -- such as undertaking the transfer of greenhouse gas
   emissions from developed countries as the "world factory" -- are forcing
   China to work hard to reduce energy consumption and reducing greenhouse
   gas emissions. Otherwise the country will have to face the grave
   consequences of continuous ecological deterioration and unsustainable
   energy supply and security.

   This being the case, energy conservation emission reduction are objective
   things China needs to do to change its economic development mode; and it
   is also the most important move China must tak e to combat the global
   climate change. Doing these two things together not only is essential for
   China, but also is essential for all parts of the world. We as common
   people should begin with ourselves and lead a low-carbon life rather than
   engaging in any endless debate on whether it is true that the global
   climate is warming up. Without regard to science and climate change and
   bury our heads in the sand will definitely not bring us any good fortune.

   (Description of Source: Beijing Renmin Ribao (Overseas Edition) Online in
   Chinese -- Online version of the daily newspaper (People's Daily Overseas
   Edition) of the CPC Central Committee targeting overseas Chinese
   audiences. URL:
   http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrbhwb)Attachments:rroe0607climate.pdf

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   39) Back to Top
   ROK Official Says 'No Objections' From UNSC Members on Sunken Ship Probe
   Yonhap headline: "No objections from U.N. Security Council members on
   sunken ship probe: official" by Chang Jae-soon - Yonhap
   Tuesday June 15, 2010 02:53:08 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   40) Back to Top
   UNSC to Hear Both Koreas on Cheonan Sinking - Chosun Ilbo On line
   Monday June 14, 2010 23:09:22 GMT
   (CHOSUN ILBO) - The UN Security Council started discussion on Monday
   afternoon about the sinking of the South Korean Navy corvette Ch'o'nan
   (Cheonan). The UNSC expects to hear South and North Korean views about the
   incident.

   South Korea's investigation team led by Yoon Duk-yong, an honorary
   professor at the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, will
   say that the North sank the warship in clear violation of the UN Charter
   and the armistice agreement that ended the Korean War in 1953 and show
   footage of the Navy salvaging a North Korean torpedo propulsion device
   discovered on the seabed near where the Ch'o'nan (Cheonan)
   sank.Investigators will stress that all members of the international
   inquiry team from the U.S., the U.K., Australia, and Sweden agreed that
   chemical substances found in the propulsion shaft and the shipwreck were
   identical.Earlier, the North asked Mexico, the current chair of the UNSC,
   for an opportunity to explain its position. According to a diplomatic
   source, the UNSC agreed to give the North a chance before it makes its
   decision.Susan Rice, the U.S. ambassador to the UN, in an interview on Fox
   News said the sinking "was an outrageous act of aggression that we condemn
   and it needs to be punished. Our hearts go out to the families of the
   sailors whose lives were lost in that event."U.S. Assistant Secretary of
   state Kurt Campbell will fly to Seoul on Wednesday with the U.S. chief
   nuclear negotiator Sung Kim to discuss the UNSC response to the sinking
   with South Korean officials.Campbell will discuss a Seoul-Washington
   summit on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Canada in late June.Believing
   that it is unlikely the UNSC can agree a firm resolution sanctioning the
   North due to opposition from North Korea's staunchest ally China, which
   has a veto as a permanent member, Sout h Korean and the U.S. are already
   aiming only at a so-called chairman's statement denouncing the North. The
   UNSC is expected to make a decision next month.(Description of Source:
   Seoul Chosun Ilbo Online in English -- English website carrying English
   summaries and full translations of vernacular hard copy items of the
   largest and oldest daily Chosun Ilbo, which is conservative in editorial
   orientation -- strongly nationalistic, anti-North Korea, and generally
   pro-US; URL: http://english.chosun.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   41) Back to Top
   Mexico's Northern Border Crime/Narcotics/Security Issues 12-14 Jun 10 -
   Mexico -- OSC Summary
   Mo nday June 14, 2010 17:11:53 GMT
   CRIME/NARCOTICS TAMAULIPAS Twenty Shot Dead in 3 Ciudad Madero
   Neighborhoods; Murders Allegedly Committed by Los Zetas --

   Tampico Milenio Diario de Tampico on 12 June reports that 20 corpses were
   found severely beaten and shot to death yesterday morning in three
   different neighborhoods in the Ciudad Madero municipality.Two men and one
   woman were found at the corner of Honduras and Baja California streets in
   the Talleres neighborhood, while the same number and sexes of victims were
   also found in that neighborhood's intersection of Nuevo Leon and
   Aguascalientes streets.Five more males were found handcuffed and dead from
   coup de grace gunshots to the head at the corner of Pachuca and Cuauhtemoc
   streets in the same neighborhood.Unofficial sources indicated that these
   five victims were members of "Los Alacranes," a gang of car-parts
   thieves.Six more male bodies were found handcuffed and shot to death on
   Las Flores Avenue in the Adriana Gonzalez de Hernandez (or "El Chispus")
   neighborhood.And the other three victims were found with gunshots to the
   head near the intersection of Cuauhtemoc and 19th streets in the Hipodromo
   neighborhood. (Tampico Milenio Diario de Tampico in Spanish -- Daily from
   Tampico, Tamaulipas State.URL:

   http://www.milenio.com/tampico/milenio
   http://www.milenio.com/tampico/milenio )

   A related item from Monterrey El Norte in the evening of 11 June notes
   that the bodies found on Las Flores Avenue were arranged in the letter Z,
   presumably a reference to the Los Zetas Cartel. (Monterrey El Norte in
   Spanish -- Major northern Mexico centrist daily; sister, predecessor
   publication of Mexico City Reforma newspaper.URL:

   http://www.elnorte.com/ http://www.elnorte.com )

   And a related item from Mexico City El Universal on 12 June reports that
   all of the victims were allegedly members of the Los Alacranes gang
   .(Mexico City El Universal in Spanish -- Major centrist daily.URL:

   http://www.el-universal.com.mx/ http://www.el-universal.com.mx/ ) Civic
   Group Calls for Fundamental Change in Fighting Crime --

   Tampico Milenio Diario de Tampico on 13 June reports that Citizen
   Movement, an NGO in Tamaulipas, has called for government officials at all
   three levels to meet with civic and business groups to establish concrete
   alternatives to the current failed policies of dealing with the state's
   growing crime problem."It's necessary that the people speak, that they
   make known their main concerns and of course, their fears," said the
   group's leader, Ricardo Guerrero Hernandez, who also remarked that
   government and police authorities are overwhelmed by crime.He stressed
   that while police have the will to protect the public, they lack the
   capacity to do so. CHIHUAHUA Juarez Daily Calls for Extradition of Border
   Patrol Agent Responsible for Teenager's Death --

   An edi torial from Ciudad Juarez Diario.com.mx on 13 June calls on the
   Mexican Foreign Relations Secretariat (SRE) and the Barack Obama
   Administration to go beyond merely "condemning" the shooting death of
   teenager Sergio Adrian Hernandez Guereca.They must instead join others in
   demanding that the US Border Patrol agent that shot the boy be extradited
   to Mexico to face trial.The daily attributes this death, and other attacks
   on Mexicans and migrants, to racist and xenophobic elements within the
   Border Patrol. (Ciudad Juarez Diario.com.mx in Spanish -- Most widely read
   border daily published in Chihuahua State.Root URL as of filing date:

   http://www.diario.com.mx/ http://www.diario.com.mx ) Civic Groups Protest
   Shooting Death of Teenager at US-Juarez Border; Second Day of Protests
   Becomes Violent --

   Ciudad Juarez Diario.com.mx on 12 June reports that members of civic
   organization s protested for two hours yesterday at the Puente Negro
   (Black Bridge) near the P aso del Norte border crossing between Ciudad
   Juarez and El Paso, Texas.They joined family members of teenager Sergio
   Adrian Hernandez Guereca, who was shot to death near Puente Negro by a US
   Border Patrol agent on 7 June.Many demonstrators shouted at Border Patrol
   agents on the US side of the international boundary, some of them calling
   the agents "murderers."The slain teenager's family members were more
   temperate in their language, indicating that they simply wanted justice to
   be served.

   A related item from Diario.com.mx on 13 June reports that another day of
   protests turned violent, as many demonstrators hurled rocks at US Border
   Patrol agents, vandalized the border wall, and in some cases, jumped over
   the wall into the United States.Family members of the slain boy, as well
   as members of the Plural Democratic Front (FPD), which had organized the
   event, repeatedly urged participants to refrain from these activities.
   Juarez Police Officers Pessimistic During Funeral of Fallen Colleague --

   Ciudad Juarez Diario.com.mx on 14 June reports that several Ciudad Juarez
   Police officers, speaking anonymously yesterday at the funeral of Officer
   Sergio Arturo Jimenez Buenrostro, were cynical about the chances of
   defeating organized crime. "It's a lost war," one officer declared. "The
   commanders don't have effective strategies to face what's happening to
   us.Nobody's life is guaranteed.For the sake of our family, we should quit
   and live."Other officers at the funeral expressed similar sentiments, many
   indicating that they are considering leaving the force.Jimenez Buenrostro,
   along with Officer Jose Sifuentes Solis, was shot dead on 10 June.Their
   murders took place just hours before Commander Julian Armando Medina
   Villagran was also gunned down. Thirty Murders in Ciudad Juarez Over
   Weekend --

   Ciudad Juarez Diario.com.mx on 14 June reports that there were 30 murders
   in Ciudad Juarez from Friday through Sunday (12-14 June).There were 11
   homicides each on Friday and Sunday, while eight murders took place on
   Saturday. Investigators Identify 19 Victims of Drug Rehab Center Shooting
   in Chihuahua --

   Ciudad Juarez Diario.com.mx on 12 June reports that the State Attorney
   General's Office (PGJE) has identified the 19 men killed the night of 10
   June when gunmen opened fire at a drug rehabilitation center at 325
   Tarahumara Street in the Villa Nueva neighborhood of the Chihuahua
   capital.Several victims were apparently members of the Los Mexicles gang,
   which works for the Sinaloa Cartel.The article, however, names only one
   shooting victim: Enrique Castillo Delgado (32), son of the clinic's
   general director, Rene Castillo Hermosillo.Health Secretary Octavio
   Martinez commented that the center was in compliance with the state
   regulations.Investigators recovered at least 189 casings from bullets
   fired "indiscriminately" at the scene.The gunmen also stuck around to
   leave four &amp;quo t;narco-messages" on poster board.Officials declined to
   reveal the text of the messages.

   A related item from Monterrey El Norte on 14 June reports that the drug
   rehab center had received threats two weeks before the attack, according
   to Beatriz, whose son, Jose, was one of the 19 victims.Jose had told his
   mother that several members of Los Mexicles admitted themselves to the
   clinic in an effort to escape their gang rivals.

   Another related item from El Norte on 12 June adds that during the past
   nine months, 61 persons have been murdered at drug rehab locations in
   Ciudad Juarez and the Chihuahua capital.

   Drugs seized in Guadalupe y Calvo (Milenio, 14 Jun)

   Army Seizes Drugs Worth US$4.6 Million in Guadalupe y Calvo --

   Tampico Milenio Diario de Tampico on 14 June briefly reports that Army
   soldiers confiscated two metric tons of marijuana, opium gum, and crystal
   methamphetamine worth 58 million pesos (nearly US$4.6 million) in the
   Guadal upe y Calvo municip ality.This community is part of the Golden
   Triangle zone, a hot spot for drug trafficking that lies along the shared
   borders between Chihuahua, Sinaloa, and Durango states. Police Officer
   Gunned Down in Chihuahua Capital --

   Ciudad Juarez Diario.com.mx on 13 June reports that a group of gunmen shot
   and killed Officer Jorge Alejandro Ortiz Rascon of the Chihuahua Municipal
   Police yesterday on the corner of Sierra Madre Occidental and Sierra
   Pelona streets in the city's Sierra Azul neighborhood.The body was found
   inside a Ford Lobo with no license plates.Officials recovered at least 60
   bullet casings from AK-47 assault rifles at the scene. Colombian
   Journalist Urges Mexicans to Stand Up to Drug Traffickers --

   Ciudad Juarez Diario.com.mx on 12 June runs a column from Colombian
   journalist Raul Benoit, who calls on Mexican citizens to boldly fight
   organized crime together, despite threats and killings from drug
   traffickers and complicit law enforc ement officers. "One of the most
   effective weapons used by criminals is to spread fear," Benoit writes.
   "But society's strongest shield is to confront (the criminals) with a
   united front, without running away."After noting many similarities between
   Mexico and his country in the realm of drug trafficking, the journalist
   indicates that citizens, working together, were able to make a difference
   in Colombia by refusing to do business with traffickers and reporting them
   to authorities. NUEVO LEON Seven Gunmen Killed During Shootouts With
   Soldiers in Los Aldamas --

   Monterrey El Norte on 13 June reports that two gunfights between Army
   soldiers and presumed members of an organized crime gang left seven of the
   latter group dead yesterday in the Los Aldamas municipality.Officials
   seized a rocket launcher, a grenade launcher, 13 shoulder firearms, and 10
   vehicles (two of them armored) after the incidents.A presumed kidnapping
   victim was also rescued. (See OSC items LAP20100613049003 and
   LAP20100613049003 for more information) 'King' of Gasoline Theft Captured
   in Monterrey --

   The Secretariat of Public Security (SSP) in bulletin 341 on 13 June
   reports that Francisco Guizar Pavon (58) was arrested today in Monterrey,
   based on information obtained in the investigation of seven alleged
   gasoline thieves arrested in Jalisco State on 9 June.They are suspected of
   stealing 90,000 liters of gasoline.The new suspect, nicknamed "King of
   Gasoline," has allegedly been leading a gang of gasoline thieves since at
   least 1993, when he was fired after 19 years of working for Mexican
   Petroleum (Pemex) for stealing gasoline.He allegedly maintains ties with
   the Los Zetas Cartel in Veracruz State and La Familia Michoacana in
   Michoacan State. (Mexico Secretariat of Public Security in Spanish --
   Official website of the Mexican Secretariat of Public Security.URL:

   http://www.ssp.gob.mx/ http://www.ssp.gob.mx/ ) Purge of Monterrey Tr
   ansit Police Continues Despite Kidnapping of 2 Officials --

   Monterrey El Porvenir on 13 June reports that the Monterrey Transit Police
   will continue its push to purge the agency of corrupt officers, according
   to Ricardo Cantu, a civilian member of the committee in charge of the
   effort.This declaration comes on the heels of two brief kidnappings of
   high-level Transit Police officials.While police have not officially said
   so, it is widely believed that these officials were targeted for their
   involvement in ridding the agency of corruption.Three hundred Transit
   officers have already been fired during the current
   administration.(Monterrey El Porvenir in Spanish -- Daily from Monterrey,
   Nuevo Leon State.URL:

   http://www.elporvenir.com.mx/ http://www.elporvenir.com.mx ) Gunmen Fail
   in Grenade Attack at Hotel Occupied by Federal Police in Monterrey --

   Monterrey El Norte on 12 June reports that gunmen threw a grenade that
   failed to detonate early yesterday mornin g at the Plaza del Arco hotel at
   309 Madero Avenue in Monterrey, which is occupied by Federal Police
   officers stationed in the city.The attackers also shot two rounds from
   AR-15 rifles at the front of the building.No one was wounded during the
   incident. COAHUILA Survey Shows Little Support for Single State Police
   Model in Saltillo --

   Saltillo Vanguardia on 13 June reports that a survey of 120 persons in
   Saltillo conducted by the newspaper shows that residents are not on board
   for the Single State Police model being eagerly adopted by Coahuila after
   the federal government announced its intention to implement the plan.Of
   the respondents, 73% believe that the new police system will make no
   perceptible improvement to crime in the city.About the same percentage of
   respondents have little confidence in the Saltillo Municipal Police force
   and also believe that citizens, not the state government, should choose
   the single state police agency chief.And just over half of respond ents
   would prefer the federal government in control of public security over a
   single state police agency.(Saltillo Vanguardia Online in Spanish -- Daily
   from Coahuila State.URL:

   http://www.vanguardia.com.mx/ http://www.vanguardia.com.mx ) Fourteen
   Killed in Single Day in Torreon --

   Torreon El Siglo de Torreon on 13 June reports that six men were gunned
   down late yesterday morning near the intersection of Espana and Juan
   Antonio de la Fuente streets in the Ana neighborhood of Torreon.The
   victims are identified as Gerardo Castaneda Rodriguez (67), Carlos Alfonso
   Olivares Longoria (23), Luis Martin Herrera Gonzalez (21), Luis Armando
   Ontiveros Hernandez, Jose Luis Sanchez, and Jesus Alejandro Silvestre
   Barajas (56).(Torreon El Siglo de Torreon in Spanish -- Daily from
   Torreon, Coahuila State.URL:

   http://www.elsiglodetorreon.com.mx/ http://www.elsiglodetorreon.com.mx )

   A related item from Saltillo Vanguardia on 13 June adds that two more
   murder victim s were found late at night at the corner of Felipe Angeles
   Street and Rio Bravo Road in the city's Zacatecas neighborhood.Six victims
   from the scene were rushed to area hospitals; however, three of them
   died.Two more victims were killed at the corner of Rebollo Acosta and
   Ejercito Mexicano boulevards, while one more victim was murdered in the La
   Feria subdivision.

   An updated item from El Siglo de Torreon on 14 June identifies the initial
   victims of the shooting in the Zacatecas neighborhood of Alberto Flores
   Rodriguez (38) and Esther Hernandez Delgado (65).The three that died on
   the way to the hospital are identified as Alejandro Rodriguez (38),
   Agapito Hidrogo Olvera (42), and Jesus Carlos Hernandez (39).Meanwhile,
   the following three were wounded: Luis Abraham Rodriguez Castillo (19),
   Daniel Venegas Marmolejo (49), and Oscar Sanchez Robles (31). SONORA Three
   Gunmen Killed During Shootout With Soldiers in Saric --

   Nogales El Diario de Sonora on 14 June reports that three gunmen were
   killed while exchanging gunfire with Army soldiers two nights ago in the
   Saric municipality.One soldier was also wounded during the gunfight, which
   took place in the Cerro Prieto area of the municipal seat. (Nogales El
   Diario de Sonora in Spanish -- Daily from Nogales, Sonora State.URL:

   http://www.eldiariodesonora.com.mx/ http://www.eldiariodesonora.com.mx )

   SECURITY/HEALTH

   (no selections)

   OSC found no file-worthy material in the following sources: PGR website,
   Sedena website, Semar website, Mexicali Periodico La Cronica.com, Tijuana
   Periodico Frontera.info, Hermosillo Periodico El Imparcial.com, Chihuahua
   El Diario de Chihuahua, Ciudad Victoria Hoy Tamaulipas

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   42) Back to Top
   Mexican Legislators Urge US Counterparts To Approve Immigration Reforms
   Report filed in Campeche by special correspondent Claudia Salazar:
   "Coherence on Migration demanded From US" - REFORMA.com
   Monday June 14, 2010 21:57:17 GMT
   PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party) Senator Rosario Green said that
   the condolences offered for the deaths of two Mexican citizens, Anastasio
   Hernandez and Sergio Adrian Hernandez, were not sufficient and that
   greater coherence on immigration reform is needed.

   "Undocumented Mexicans have ultimately become an electoral issue, no more
   than a name on a list. That reflects poorly, very poorly, on a country
   with which I have not always agreed, but which I have always admired.

   "I had hoped that these lamentations and expressions of condolences that w
   e had received from our US counterparts and that were shown on all the
   television channels would be backed up in the tone of our
   inter-parliamentary meeting," said Senator Green.

   Porfirio Munoz Ledo, chair of the Chamber of Deputies Foreign Relations
   Committee, warned that without the passage of immigration reform in the
   United States, bilateral relations with Mexico would be "rotten."

   Democratic legislators from the United States admitted that they would not
   be able to begin discussions about immigration reform until after the
   November elections, and added that they still do not have the votes of the
   Republicans.

   The chair of the Subcommittee on Immigration, (California Representative)
   Zoe Lofgren, said that to obtain a majority for immigration reform they
   would need at least 60 Republican votes.

   According to a summary of the meeting to which Reforma had access,
   (California) Representative Linda Sanchez said that until they have a
   Democratic majority, they will not be able to move forward on immigration
   reform.

   "There is a small minority that is angry, that talks negatively about
   migrants, and that describes migrants as traffickers, smugglers, and
   terrorists. Logic cannot make any inroads on the thinking of that small
   minority," she said in a troubled voice.

   (Arizona Representative) Ed Pastor, a Democrat, explained that now the
   debate in the United States is about whether or not a politician supports
   the regularization of immigration and whether the migrant is legal or not.

   (Texas Representative) Solomon Ortiz asked for patience and said that for
   the first time there were 100 legislators in favor of comprehensive
   immigration reform.

   The members of the US Congress ruled out (any possibility) of US gun
   control reform.

   (Description of Source: Mexico City REFORMA.com in Spanish -- Website of
   major center-right daily owned by Grupo Reforma; URL: http://www.refo
   rma.com/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   43) Back to Top
   Mexico Southeastern Crime/Narcotics/Security Issues 14 Jun 10 - Mexico --
   OSC Summary
   Monday June 14, 2010 14:48:13 GMT
   The Secretariat of Public Security website reports in bulletin 339 on 13
   June that federal police officers in Morelos arrested Irving Eduardo
   Solano Vera, a.k.a. El Gato, a 29-year-old operator for Edgar Valdez
   Villarreal, a.k.a. La Barbie, of the Beltran Leyva Cartel.Jose Luis Solano
   Morales, a.k.a. Rengo, an alleged lookout for the group, was also
   arrested.Solano Vera entered the Morelos Office of the Attorney Gener al
   on 27 July 2000 and worked as a ministerial officer in the Murder
   Investigation Group until 18 November 2003.He joined the Beltran Leyva
   Cartel while he was still a ministerial agent and earned the trust of La
   Barbie and worked under him in charge of paid assassin groups and drug
   transportation operations in Guerrero and Morelos.He was also in charge of
   security logistics for La Barbie.Investigations indicate that he was
   planning to sell drugs in other states and to break into the US market.He
   is linked to at least 30 murders.When arrested, he and Solano Morales were
   in possession of a grey Volkswagen vehicle, Mexico City plates 434-WZC; a
   9-mm Glock handgun; two clips; 31 live cartridges, 9 mm; and 56 bindles of
   cocaine. (Mexico Secretariat of Public Security in Spanish -- Official
   website of the Mexican Secretariat of Public Security.URL:

   http://www.ssp.gob.mx/ http://www.ssp.gob.mx/ ) Federal Police Detain Man
   with 72 Capsules of Cocaine in Stomach at Mexico Cit y Airport -

   The Secretariat of Public Security website reports in bulletin 336 on 11
   June that Federal Police were questioning passengers boarding flight 2206
   to Guadalajara, Jalisco, at the Mexico City International Airport.Geovanni
   Issac Galvez Reyes, a 22 year old, was nervous and seemed hurried to board
   his plane, so they took him in for further questioning.He confessed to
   having swallowed 72 capsules of cocaine before boarding his flight in
   Lima, Peru.He was taken to a hospital and authorities obtained the 72
   capsules, which weighed a total of 710 g. Galvez was arrested. Federal
   Police Arrest Member of Los Petriciolet Kidnapping Gang in Xochimilco -

   The Secretariat of Public Security website reports in bulletin 337 on 11
   June that federal police officers conducted an operation in the Potrero
   San Bernardino neighborhood of the Xochimilco delegation of Mexico City
   and arrested Jesus Valdes Orozco, a.k.a. El Frank, a suspected member of
   the Los Petriciolet ki dnapping gang.He allegedly joined the gang in 2007,
   at the invitation of someone known as Luis, a.k.a. La Botarga.Valdes was
   in charge of keeping watch over nine kidnapping victims.When arrested, he
   was in possession of the following: a 2005 silver Honda Accord, Mexico
   City plates 693-VYT; four cellular phone devices; and a variety of
   identifications. Mexico State Family Gunned Down in Home -

   Mexico City El Universal on 11 June reports that several armed men burst
   into a home on Zaragoza Street, in the Tultepec municipality of Mexico
   State, just two blocks from the municipal government buildings, and opened
   fire on a couple and their baby.The woman and infant were killed, and the
   man was injured and taken to a hospital for treatment.Authorities believe
   this may have been a settling of scores. (Mexico City El Universal
   (Internet Version-WWW) in Spanish -- Major centrist daily. Root URL as of
   filing date:

   http://www.el-universal.com.mx/ http://www.el-universal.c om.mx/ )
   Kidnapping Gang Arrested in Tabasco -

   Mexico City Reforma on 13 June reports that a gang of kidnappers was
   arrested in Tabasco: Guadalupe Gallegos Hernandez, a.k.a. Lupillo;
   Crecencio Caraveo Castro; and Silviano Ascencio Feliciano, a.k.a. El
   Sabocho.They were identified by a former victim, who was released by them
   after his family members paid ransom. (Mexico City Reforma in Spanish --
   major centrist daily newspaper, advocates journalism reform.URL:

   http://www.reforma.com/ http://www.reforma.com/ ) Experts: Narco-Violence
   Only Contained, Not Prevented -

   Mexico City Reforma on 14 June reports that experts say President Felipe
   Calderon has done nothing but contain organized crime in the four years
   since the start of the struggle to recover public security.They say
   nothing has been done towards prevention or solving the real problem of
   national security. "Up until now there has been containment, but to go
   from that to suppose that ground is b eing gained or that victory is near
   is to be outside of reality," says Carlos Humberto Toledo, a security
   specialist.Arturo Alvarado, instructor and researcher at the College of
   Mexico, says, "The problem is protection, whether it be at a
   rehabilitation center or at malls, authorities have no or do not want to
   give information on their ability to prevent and respond, everything is
   left unpunished, it is unprecedented, nothing more than a ministerial
   report is made, the deaths pile up and that's it."

   The following media were scanned and no file-worthy items were noted:
   Mexico City Office of the Attorney General of the Republic, Mexican Naval
   Secretariat, Mexico City Secretariat of National Defense, Coatzacoalcos El
   Liberal del Sur, Merida Diario de Yucatan, Mexico City Proceso, Oaxaca
   Noticias, Oaxaca El Imparcial, Poza Rica de Hidalgo La Opinion, Tuxtla
   Gutierrez Cuarto Poder, Villahermosa Tabasco Hoy, Mexico City La Jornada,
   Centro de Medios Independie ntes (Indymedia) Chiapas, Zapatista National
   Liberation Army

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   44) Back to Top
   Mexico Political Issues 12-14 Jun 10 - Mexico -- OSC Summary
   Monday June 14, 2010 17:59:16 GMT
   -- Mexico City El Universal reports on 13 June that according to Mexican
   Ambassador to the United States Arturo Sarukhan, the Mexican Government is
   awaiting the results of an investigation into the death of 14-year-old
   Mexican national Sergio Adrian Hernandez -- who was shot by an agent of
   the US Border Patrol -- before deciding what legal action to take in this
   case. In an interview during the 49 th Mexico-US Inter-Parliamentary
   Meeting, the ambassador affirmed that the Mexican authorities had videos
   of the shooting taken from the Mexican side of the Ciudad Juarez-El Paso
   border, while videos shot on the other side of the border where being
   studied by the US authorities. Sarukhan added that while the
   investigations were underway, the Mexican authorities "are evaluating all
   resources available to us, to which we will resort if the investigation
   concludes that any of these agents are guilty, and we are also evaluating
   the legal and diplomatic instruments at our disposal, which we will
   implement as soon as this investigation concludes." The ambassador denied
   that his government's reactions to the recent deaths of Mexican national
   at US hands had been "lukewarm." (Mexico City EL UNIVERSAL.com.mx in
   Spanish -- Website of influential centrist daily; URL

   http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/ http://www.eluniversal.com.mx ) (OSC is
   translating the ful l text of this article) Mexico-US Inter-Parliamentary
   Meeting Concludes Without Agreements

   -- Mexico City Reforma reports on 14 June that the 49 th Mexico-US
   Inter-Parliamentary Meeting concluded in Campeche without any concrete
   agreements, although Mexican and US legislators expressed their intention
   to discuss trade, security, and migration issues in their respective
   legislative chambers. Thus, PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party) Deputy
   Francisco Rojas, head of the Mexican delegation, affirmed that the Mexican
   and US legislators alike had defended the need for Mexico to act against
   drug trafficking and for the United States to take action against
   gunrunning, while both delegations agreed on the need to curb domestic
   drug use. Rojas added that the approval of comprehensive immigration
   reforms in the United States would avoid "repressive" measures which
   harmed bilateral relations, such as Arizona's SB1070. Meanwhile, PAN
   (National Action Party) Senator L uis Alberto Villarreal declared that
   until immigration reforms were approved in the United States, measures
   were needed to ensure that the human rights of Mexican migrants were
   upheld. (Mexico City REFORMA.com in Spanish -- Website of major
   center-right daily owned by Grupo Reforma; URL:

   http://www.reforma.com/ http://www.reforma.com/ ) Mexican Legislators
   Demand Punishment for US Agents

   -- Mexico City El Universal reports on 12 June that during the 49 th
   Mexico-US Inter-Parliamentary Meeting, legislators from the United States
   and Mexico jointly condemned the deaths of Mexican nationals Sergio Adrian
   Hernandez and Anastasio Hernandez Juarez, and they demanded thorough
   investigations by their respective governments. Furthermore, PAN Deputy
   Francisco Ramirez Acuna, speaker of the Chamber of Deputies, declared that
   US agencies should stop using lethal force against migrants. PAN Senate
   Coordinator Calls for Extradition of US Agent

   -- Mexico City El Univers al reports on 12 June that PAN Senate
   coordinator Gustavo Madero called for the extradition of a US Border
   Patrol agent, to be tried for the murder of Mexican teenager Sergio Adrian
   Hernandez. Madero affirmed in an interview that the Legislative branch was
   preparing a motion to voice its concern over the "increasing trend" and
   the "escalation" of assaults against Mexi can migrants by authorities in
   the United States. The PAN senator went on to acknowledge that it was up
   to the federal government to request an extradition, but he stressed that
   the Senate wished to express its concern over this case. Mexican
   Legislators Urge US Counterparts To Take Action on Immigration Reforms

   -- Mexico City Reforma reports on 13 June that PRI Senator Rosario Green,
   chairwoman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and former Foreign
   secretary, declared at the 49 th Mexico-US Inter-Parliamentary Meeting
   that the condolences of her US counterparts over the deaths of Mexican
   nationals Anastasio Hernandez and Sergio Adrian Hernandez would not
   suffice, and she called for greater coherence on the issue of immigration
   reforms. "Undocumented Mexicans have ultimately become an electoral issue,
   no more than a name on a list. That reflects poorly on a country with
   which I may not always agree, but which I have always admired," Green
   declared. The PRI senator added that "I had hoped that these lamentations
   and expressions of condolences that we had received from our US
   counterparts (...) would be backed up in the tone of our
   inter-parliamentary meeting." Meanwhile, PT (Labor Party) Deputy Porfirio
   Munoz Ledo, chairman of the Chamber of Deputies' Foreign Relations
   Committee, warned that without the approval of immigration reforms in the
   United States, bilateral relations with Mexico would be "rotten." (OSC is
   translating the full text of this article) Mexican Legislators Urge US
   Counterparts To Remove Obstacles Hin dering Free Trade

   -- Mexico City Reforma reports on 13 June that Mexican legislators urged
   their US counterparts to cancel a series of obstacles that were preventing
   free trade between the two countries, in violation of the terms of NAFTA
   (North American Free Trade Agreement). The Mexican delegation at the 49 th
   Mexico-US Inter-Parliamentary Meeting complained of measures such as the
   imposition of import tariffs, obstacles against the transportation of
   goods from Mexico to the United States, and a veto on Mexican-caught tuna,
   among other issues. According to Deputy Ildefonso Guajardo, the Mexican
   and US legislators agreed on the need to improve trade exchanges and
   cooperation, in order to reinforce the global competitiveness of the North
   American region. Mexican, US Legislators See Need for Amendment of
   'Exhausted' NAFTA

   -- Mexico City El Universal reports on 13 June that Mexican and US
   legislators acknowledged that the North American Free Trade Agreement
   (NAFT A) was "exhausted," "devalued," and in need of amendments. The
   legislators assembled at the 49 th Mexico-US Inter-Parliamentary Meeting
   pointed out that the North American region was losing global
   competitiveness to the Asia-Pacific region, while PRI Deputy Ildefonso
   Guajardo, chairman of the Chamber of Deputies' Economy Committee, declared
   that NAFTA "has fulfilled its duties, borne its fruit, had its successes,
   and must now be programmed for the future. Now that it has reached a point
   of exhaustion, it should be re-launched with a series of actions by our
   Executive and Legislative branches, in order to strengthen the North
   American region in comparison with other world regions." PAN Senator Luis
   Alberto Villarreal added that NAFTA could still generate wellbeing for
   Mexico and the United States, but that the agreement required "new
   criteria," to include a greater focus on "infrastructure, technology,
   social development, and educa tion, in order to defeat problems including
   crime and violence in the region." INM Reports Almost 3,000 Mexicans
   Accepted Voluntary Repatriation Over 12 Days

   -- Mexico City La Jornada reports on 13 June that according to Rolando
   Garcia Alonso, coordinator of International Relations at Mexico's National
   Migration Institute (INM), almost 3,000 Mexican nationals have returned to
   their places of orig in during the first 12 days of a Mexico-US voluntary
   repatriation program, while almost 30,000 were expected to accept this
   voluntary repatriation during the three-month program, from June to
   September. Garcia Alonso explained that in an exceptional measure, the US
   authorities were paying air and bus fares for any undocumented migrants
   who decided to return to their places of origin from the Arizona-Sonora
   border region. The INM official affirmed that despite bilateral tension
   caused by recent attacks against Mexican migrants by US agents, the
   authorities sought to maint ain institutional relations which benefited
   Mexican nationals. Garcia Alonso explained that the repatriation program
   aimed to reduce the death rate of Mexican migrants attempting to cross the
   border during the hottest months of the year. (Mexico City La Jornada
   Online in Spanish -- Website of major left-leaning daily, critical of PAN
   and PRI administrations; URL:

   http://www.jornada.unam.mx http://www.jornada.unam.mx ) International
   Relations: Iran Protests Against Mexico's UN Vote on Sanctions

   -- Mexico City El Universal reports on 12 June that the Iranian Embassy in
   Mexico issued a statement expressing its country's "forceful protest"
   against Mexico's vote in the UN Security Council, which approved financial
   sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program. The Iranian statement
   lamented that Mexico had "given in" to "pressure" from the United States,
   despite the fact that Iran had supported Mexico's bid to occupy a
   temporary Secur ity Council seat from 2009 to 2010. The Iranian statement
   went on to thank Turkey and Brazil "for rejecting the pressure of the US
   Government and displaying the independence of their vote in defense of the
   rights of the Iranian people, and their choice to back the path of
   diplomacy and dialogue." (OSC is translating the full text of this
   article) Other Political News: Calderon Declares Crime, Not Government,
   Responsible for Death Rate in Mexico

   -- Mexico City Reforma reports on 13 June that a day after Mexico
   experienced its worst week in terms of violent deaths, with 271 murders,
   President Felipe Calderon and the Interior Secretariat (Segob) stressed
   that this death rate was the result of clashes among criminal groups, and
   not of the government's actions. In a statement defending his government's
   strategy against crime, Calderon declared that "rather than a 'war of the
   government against drug trafficking', the most deadly war being fought at
   the moment is among criminals (...). In their current turf wars, (criminal
   organizations) are committing especially violent homicides, such as
   beheadings, torture, and mass executions." Calderon added that the aim of
   the government's actions was to stem this wave of violence. Meanwhile, the
   Segob issued a statement declaring that "most of the violent deaths"
   reported in Mexico were caused by criminal organizations.

   The following media were scanned and no file-worthy items were noted:

   (Mexico City EXonline in Spanish -- Website of major right-of-center daily
   Excelsior owned by Grupo Imagen; URL

   http://www.exonline.com.mx http://www.exonline.com.mx )

   (Mexico City Milenio.com in Spanish -- Website of independent, centrist
   daily owned by Grupo Editorial Milenio; URL:

   http://www.milenio.com/ http://www.milenio.com/ )

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtaine d from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   45) Back to Top
   Former Policeman Linked To Drug Scheme Arrested
   Unattributed report "Ex-cop Wanted for 30 Killings Captured in Mexico" --
   EFE Headline - EFE
   Monday June 14, 2010 18:13:54 GMT
   Irving Eduardo Solano Vera was in charge of logistics for Valdez
   Villarreal's organization, the secretariat said. The 29-year-old Solano
   Vera, a native of Cuautla, Morelos, was arrested last Friday along with
   Jose Luis Solano Moreles, another member of the gang.

   Solano Vera was in charge of the criminal organization's hit squads and
   drug shipments in Guerrero and Morelos states, the secretariat said.

   The 36-year-old Valdez Villarreal was the right-hand man and most rut
   hless gunman employed by drug lord Arturo Beltran Leyva, who was killed in
   a shootout on Dec. 16 with Mexican marines. A battle for control of the
   Beltran Leyva cartel has been raging since Arturo's death, intelligence
   sources say. A faction of the gang under the command of Valdez Villarreal
   is battling the group led by Hector Beltran Leyva for control of
   territory.

   U.S. authorities are offering a $2 million reward for information leading
   to the capture of Valdez Villarreal, who was indicted last week in
   Atlanta, Georgia.

   Solano Vera served in the Morelos state police from July 2000 to November
   2003, then rejoined the force on Jan. 8, 2005, the secretariat said.

   "While serving as a state police officer," Solano Vera was invited to join
   the Beltran Leyva cartel, the secretariat said, adding that the suspect
   left the state police in May 2009. The Beltran Leyva cartel is involved in
   smuggling cocaine, marijuana and heroin, as well as in people trafficking,
   money laundering, extortion, kidnapping, contract hits and arms
   trafficking.

   Arturo Beltran Leyva and another brother, Mario Alberto, shared the
   leadership of the Beltran Leyva cartel, which arose as a splinter group of
   the Sinaloa cartel, Mexico's oldest and largest cartel.

   The Beltran Leyva brothers reportedly broke with Sinaloa cartel boss
   Joaquin "El Chapo" (Shorty) Guzman after the January 2008 arrest of
   Alfredo Beltran Leyva.

   The brothers blamed Alfredo's arrest on Guzman and killed one of the
   Sinaloa cartel chief's sons in a grenade attack on a Culiacan shopping
   center.

   The betrayals and killings sparked a war between Guzman and the Beltran
   Leyvas, who allied themselves with the Gulf cartel, a bitter enemy of the
   Sinaloa cartel boss.

   The Beltran Leyva cartel managed to infiltrate the security forces and put
   Noe Ramirez Mandujano, who served as Mexico's drug czar, on their payroll.

   Ramirez Mandujano was a rrested in November 2008 during "Operation
   Clean-Up," an initiative to root out corruption in the upper reaches of
   the Federal Police and Attorney General's Office. The former drug czar had
   been taking $450,000 monthly from drug traffickers, officials said.

   (Description of Source: Madrid EFE in English -- independent Spanish press
   agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   46) Back to Top
   ROK, DPRK To Address UN Security Council Over Ship Sinking
   Updated version: Replacing 0105 GMT version with update provided by source
   at 0640 GMT, which recasts first 3 grafs and updates graf 5, 10-11, 14-15
   with comments from the foreign ministry spokesman, and provides a by-li
   ne; By Chang Jae-soon: "South, North Korea to Address U.N. Security
   Council Over Ship Sinking" - Yonhap
   Monday June 14, 2010 07:09:32 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   47) Back to Top
   DPRK Threats, PRC Reluctance 'Hobble' ROK's Response to Ch'o'nan
   Unattributed report: "Uncertainties Hobble S.Korea's Response to Cheonan
   Sinking" - Chosun Ilbo Online
   Sunday June 13, 2010 23:40:19 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Chosun Ilbo Online in English -- English
   website carrying English summaries and full translations of vernacular
   hard copy items of the largest and oldest daily Chosun Ilbo, which is
   conservative in editorial orientation -- strongly nationalistic,
   anti-North Korea, and generally pro-US; URL: http://english.chosun.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   48) Back to Top
   US Increases aid To Protect Civilians, To Promote Economic Recovery
   Report by Nicolas Michel: "Obama and the Ugandan Patient" - Jeune Afrique
   Monday June 14, 2010 04:39:18 GMT
   continues to terrorize the entire region. The United States is banking on
   economic development to stop the massacre.

   The United States is a long-time ally of Uganda, considered as an island
   of stability in the Great Lakes region. Reagan, Bush senior, Clinton, Bush
   junior and now Obama, have all had cordial ties with Ugandan President
   Yoweri Museveni, who has been in power since 1986. And all of them
   supported his struggle against the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) of
   "Prophet" Joseph Kony, who has been terrorizing the Acholie region, in the
   north of the country, for almost twenty years now.

   It is, therefore, not surprising that Obama, on 24 May, promulgated a law
   on "the disarming of the LRA and the reconstruction of the north of the
   country" that commits his country to increase aid destined for the
   protection of civilians and to promote the region's economic recovery.
   Obama, on this occasion, paid glowing tribute to the Ugandan government
   for its action in favor of the Acholie region and its reintegration
   programs for those leaving LRA ranks.

   Barbaric practices

   Since the carrying out of Operation Lightning Thunder by the Ugandan and
   Congolese armed forces against Kony's men in December 2008, the LRA has
   been, seriously, weakened, but continues to spread terror between Congo,
   Sudan and the Central African Republic. "The figures have, undoubtedly,
   been underestimated, but, according to Ugandan intelligence, the LRA has
   between 500 and 2,000 men scattered over a territory as big as Spain.
   Besides, the term army is inappropriate. There are hardly any contacts
   between them. As to their funding, there is talk of the Acholie Diaspora,
   but there is no evidence of this. "Today, the LRA is a threat, above all,
   to the population, and not to states," says Thierry Vircoulon, who is in
   charge of Central Africa in the International Crisis Group (ICG).

   The ICG estimates at 1,40 0 the number of LRA victims, since December
   2008, in the various countries concerned. Abductions, acts of rape,
   plundering, mutilations: the barbaric practices of Kony's soldiers -
   facing a warrant of arrest of the International Criminal Court, since
   2005, for crimes against humanity - have not changed with their
   diminishing chances of seizing power in Kampala. "Kony and his comrades
   are hiding in an immense and under-administered territory, where it is
   easy to disappear," Vircoulon explains.

   Protecting civilians

   According to the ICG, the military option of capturing or eliminating Kony
   has, nevertheless, proven to be inadequate, especially as "Uganda
   jeopardized its own chances of success by failing to coordinate its action
   with its partners, thereby giving them insufficient reasons to take up the
   fight against the LRA." Organization argues in favor of a better "division
   of labor" that would enable the United Nations Mission in Su dan (MINUS)
   and the United Nations Mission in DR Congo (MONUC) to protect civilians in
   the areas concerned. Its voice has, probably, been heard, since United
   Nations Resolution 1925 of 28 May transforms MONUC into "United Nations
   Mission for the Stabilization of DR Congo" (MONUSCO), with the aim of
   improving the means that the Congolese government has at its disposal to,
   efectively, protect the population, threatened, among others, by the LRA.

   As for Museveni - who is already campaigning for the 2011 presidential
   election - he will not spare the cost of special efforts in favor of the
   north. Poverty is the cause of many ills, with an average rate of 30
   percent in the country and peaking at 60 percent in the Acholie region.

   (Description of Source: Paris Jeune Afrique in French -- Privately owned,
   independent weekly magazine)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained fr om the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   49) Back to Top
   Foreign Visitors in Cuba 7-13 Jun 10 - Cuba -- OSC Summary
   Monday June 14, 2010 17:26:31 GMT
   Havana Radio Rebelde in Spanish 1000 GMT on 7 June reported that Seretse
   Khama Ian Khama, president of Botswana, arrives in Cuba today on an
   official visit at the invitation of the Cuban Government.
   (LAP20100607464001, LAP20100607361004, LAP20100613002003see also
   AFP20100607567008)

   Havana Cubavision in Spanish 0000 GMT on 8 June reported that Seretse
   Khama Ian Khama, president of Botswana, met with Council of State
   President Raul Castro Ruz.After an official welcome ceremony, the leaders
   discussed the "satisfactory" state of bilateral ties and international
   affair s.Vice President Esteban Lazo Hernandez was also in attendance.
   (LAP20100608499001, LAP20100608464003, LAP20100608464004,
   LAP20100608361003, LAP20100613002001, LAP20100613002004)

   Havana Cubavision in Spanish 1700 GMT on 8 June reported that Seretse
   Khama Ian Khama, president of Botswana, visited the Internationalist
   Soldiers Mausoleum, where he placed a floral wreath.Several Cuban
   cooperators are contributing to health, education, and sports sectors in
   Botswana (see also AFP20100609567006).Khama extolled Cuba's collaboration,
   stating that Cuba has given Botswana more than any other nation.
   (LAP20100608361003, LAP20100609499001, LAP20100609464002) (He also praised
   Cuban educational facilities and opportunities (AFP20100610567015);
   pledged to advocate for the lifting of economic sanctions against Cuba
   (AFP20100611589004); to explore new avenues of cooperation
   (AFP20100611589005); and signed two new coooperation agreements
   (AFP20100614589005)).

   INTERNATIONAL
   Havana Cubavision in Spanish 2230 GMT on 10 June carried a roundtable with
   international guest panelists attending the 2nd international conference
   on Jose Marti's ideas.They included Frei Betto, Brazilian theologist and
   intellectual; Mexican senator Yeidckol Polevnski; Marina Coronado,
   president of the Guatemalan Chamber of Professional Broadcasters; Luis
   Gomez Soromenho, mayor of Villa Real de San Antonio, Portugal.
   (LAP20100611052001)

   UNITED STATES

   Havana Cubavision in Spanish 0000 GMT on 9 June reported that the governor
   of Georgia paid a two-day visit to Cuba.He stressed that the primary
   reason for the visit was to develop trade relations and noted there was no
   opposition to his journey. (LAP20100609499001) Foreign media outlets
   reported no additional information on foreigners visiting Cuba that was
   not covered above.

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the cop yright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   50) Back to Top
   Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Dominican Republic Media 14 June 2010
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - OSC
   Monday June 14, 2010 11:19:22 GMT
   -- San Jose La Nacion reports that a month and a half after the start of
   the new legislature, deputies have sidelined security projects and that
   bills await the formation of committees to discuss them. (San Jose
   Nacion.com in Spanish -- Website of ultra-conservative national
   circulation daily owned by Grupo Nacion Corporation; URL:

   http://www.nacion.com/ http://www.nacion.com/ ) Foreign Policy Said Not a
   Priority for Chinchilla

   -- San Jose La Prensa Libre reports tha t experts consider that foreign
   policy is not a priority for President Laura Chinchilla. They point out
   that her administration has a more environmental and a low profile
   regarding international relations, in contrast to the administration of
   Oscar Arias. (San Jose La Prensa Libre Online in Spanish -- Website of
   independent daily; Director William Gomez Vargas; URL:

   http://www.prensalibre.co.cr/ http://www.prensalibre.co.cr/ ) NICARAGUA
   MRS Deputy Monica Baltodano Urges Popular Opposition Against Ortega

   -- Managua La Prensa reports that Deputy Monica Baltodano, from the
   Sandinista Renewal Movement (MRS), said that President Daniel Ortega's
   strategy to perpetuate himself in power "will not work" as there are
   people in Nicaragua "who cannot be bought, are not afraid of him, and are
   willing to give up their lives." She added that the political opposition
   was weak and urged the people to carry out demonstrations against Ortega.
   (Managua La Prens a.com.ni in Spanish -- Website of independent leading
   national circulation daily; La Prensa generally supports free market,
   neo-liberal economics and is largely pro-US. Owned by the Chamorro family;
   URL:

   http://www.laprensa.com.ni/ http://www.laprensa.com.ni/ ) Article Analyzes
   Opposition's Lack of Unity

   -- Managua La Prensa reports that more than three years after promising
   unity to lead a front against Ortega and regain power in 2011, the
   opposition factions have been unable to join forces, while the periods
   proposed for unity are expiring with no results. Analysts said that
   personal ambitions, the buying and selling of opposition votes in the
   National Assembly, and a disregard for the opinion of independent voters
   are the main obstacles in the road to unity. (Pooled as LAP20100614022001)
   Police Investigating Fumigation Airplane Case

   -- Managua La Prensa reports that a Costa Rican, a Czech, and a Mexican
   were arrested and then released in Costa Rica ov er a fumigation airplane
   that took off in Costa Rica but made a forced landing in Nicaragua. The
   owner of the airplane has a history of drug trafficking, however no drug
   remains were found in the airplane. Article Lauds NDI Program To Train
   Politicians

   -- Managua La Prensa reports that the announcement made by the US National
   Democratic Institute (NDI) to launch a specialized education program for
   Nicaraguan politicians fills a large vacuum, as the country's political
   class "has a great need of political training and democratic education."
   Justices Unable To Break Impasse

   -- Managua Informe Pastran reports that Justice Manuel Martinez's period
   as president of the Supreme Court of Justice (CSJ) expired without calling
   a plenary meeting to elect new authorities, as the impasse over the
   participation of Justices Rafael Solis and Armengol Cuadra, whose terms
   had expired, was not solved. Justice Alba Luz Ramos, from the Sandinista
   National Liberation Front (FSLN), is scheduled to become the new president
   of the CSJ. (Managua Informe Pastran Online in Spanish -- Website of daily
   political and economic news bulletin edited by Adolfo Pastran Arancibia;
   URL:

   http://www.informepastran.com/ http://www.informepastran.com ) Article
   Claims Civil Society a n 'Instrument' of the United States

   -- Managua La Voz del Sandinismo reports in an article by Prensa Latina
   correspondent Alfredo Pierrat that US strategy towards Nicaragua seems to
   have changed in the past few months, with the low profile of Ambassador
   Robert Callahan and the virtual acceptance of Francisco Campbell as
   ambassador to Washington. He points out that the United States is making
   efforts to instill in Nicaraguan civil society political views and
   practices that have no space for dissenting opinions, much less for
   leftist ones. (Managua La Voz del Sandinismo Online in Spanish -- Official
   Sandinista National Liberation Front, FSLN, news portal; URL:

   htt p://www.lavozdelsandinismo.com/ http://www.lavozdelsandinismo.com )
   (Pooled as LAP20100614022002) DOMINICAN REPUBLIC Editorial Says Reelection
   Speculation Harms PLD, Fernandez

   -- Santo Domingo Listin Diario reports in an editorial that the discussion
   of President Leonel Fernandez's reelection harms the Dominican Liberation
   Party (PLD), given that the idea is rejected by large segments of society,
   that a newly approved constitution expressly forbids it, and that the PLD
   won elections by a landslide with Fernandez heading the campaign. The
   editorial adds that the idea of reelection makes Fernandez look like an
   insatiable leader. (Santo Domingo Listin Diario.com in Spanish -- Website
   of independent pro-Dominican Revolutionary Party administration daily;
   Director Antonio Gil; URL:

   http://www.listin.com.do/ http://www.listin.com.do ) Cuba, Dominican
   Republic Discuss Free Trade

   -- Santo Domingo Hoy reports that Cuba and the Dominican Republic are
   discussing a partial free trade agreement to strengthen current trade
   levels, estimated at $70 million per year, emphasizing cooperation and
   technical assistance in technology and tourism. The Dominican Republic
   exports food, cosmetics, and construction material to Cuba, while
   importing pharmaceuticals. (Santo Domingo Hoy Digital in Spanish --
   Website of independent national circulation daily published by Editora
   Hoy; Director Mario Alvarez Dugan URL:

   http://www.hoy.com.do/ http://www.hoy.com.do/ ) (Pooled as
   LAP20100614022003)

   The following media were scanned and no file-worthy items were noted:
   NICARAGUA

   (Managua El Pueblo Presidente Online in Spanish -- Citizen power news
   portal supportive of the Ortega administration URL:

   http://www.elpueblopresidente.com/ http://www.elpueblopresidente.com )

   (Managua El 19 Online in Spanish -- Website of pro-government daily; URL:

   http://www.el19digital.com/ http://www.el19digital.com )

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   51) Back to Top
   ROK, Colombia Start 3rd Round of Free Trade Talks on 14 Jun
   Updated version: adding International Economic tag; Yonhap headline: "S.
   Korea, Colombia start 3rd round of free trade talks" - Yonhap
   Monday June 14, 2010 10:13:10 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   52) Back to Top
   S. Korea, Colombia Start 3rd Round of Free Trade Talks - Yonhap
   Monday June 14, 2010 08:03:20 GMT
   S. Korea, Colombia start 3rd round of free trade talks

   SEOUL, June 14 (Yonhap) -- South Korea and Colombia began Monday their
   third round of free trade negotiations in Seoul, the trade ministry
   said.The two countries will discuss a range of issues such as services and
   investment until Friday, the ministry said. Both sides held the first
   round in Seoul in December.Their bilateral trade reached US$922 million in
   2009, with South Korea's exports to the South American country reaching
   $797 million, according to the ministry.South Korea's main export items
   include cars and electronic goods, and it imports coffee and resources,
   such as coal and n ickel, from Colombia.The South American country has
   free trade pacts with the United States, Canada and the European Free
   Trade Association (EFTA), comprising Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and
   Liechtenstein.South Korea also has free trade pacts with Chile, Singapore,
   the EFTA and the 10-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations.A free
   trade pact between Korea and the United States was signed in 2007, but
   still awaits ratification by the legislatures of both countries.

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   53) Back to Top
   Police Launch New Agency To Track Down Transnational Criminals
   Report by Wassayos Ngamkham: "New Agency Bags Robbery Gang" - Bangkok Post
   Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 03:22:11 GMT
   Transnational crime under spotlight, writes Wassayos Ngamkham.The recent
   arrest of 11 members of an alleged Colombian robbery gang marked a
   promising start for a new police agency charged with cracking down on
   transnational criminals in Thailand.The Transnational Crime Arrest Warrant
   Information Centre officially opened on May 9, and officers from the
   agency played a key role in last week's arrests.The centre will operate as
   an arm of the Immigration Bureau, which is considered the country's first
   line of defence against overseas criminals.The bureau also aims to
   establish Thailand as a regional hub specialising in tracking down
   transnational criminals."We're making Thailand a 'market' for arrest
   warrants issued worldwide," said Immigration Police Bureau chief Wut
   Liptapanlop.He said he wants Thailand to become a centre for information
   in Southeast A sia on transnational criminals. The centre would accomplish
   this by compiling arrest warrants issued by foreign countries in its
   computer network, he said.The centre's work would enable officers to
   better monitor the entry of foreigners into Thailand, which has at least
   20 million visitors each year, he said.Pol Lt Gen Wut said the massive
   number of travellers entering the country makes it easier for
   transnational criminals to slip through.The bureau says foreign criminals
   entering Thailand can be divided into three groups. The first commits
   crimes abroad and flees to Thailand, while the second intends to commit
   illegal acts here. The third uses the country as a place to launder money
   through a range of investment projects here.The Colombian gang falls into
   the second group, police said, as members had tricked officials by using
   fake Spanish passports to enter the country.Police allege that Vincent
   Johnaon, a Ghanaian national, helped forge their passports.The gang is
   accuse d of raiding houses in Bangkok and neighbouring provinces to steal
   valuables, some of which were sent to Colombia. It also allegedly stole
   items and cash from cars."Our duty is to prevent them from entering, but
   if they do get in, to nab them," said Pol Lt Gen Wut. "If you manage to
   sneak into our country, we'll hunt you down."The Transnational Crime
   Arrest Warrant Information Centre has compiled arrest warrants from
   various agencies in its computer network which can be checked at
   immigration police checkpoints nationwide.The bureau said 1,333 warrants
   are from Thai courts, 253 are from Interpol, 263 are from foreign
   embassies, 10 are from the US Federal Bureau of Investigation and eight
   are from the US Drug Enforcement Administration.The targets of most arrest
   warrants are Asian (1,012 people), followed by Europeans (377), Africans
   (94), North Americans (91), South Americans (50), Australians (31), and
   people of unknown nationality (212).Pol Lt Gen Wut s aid a coming
   immigration police crackdown on transnational criminals would focus on
   guest houses and hotels where foreigners stay. Owners would be obliged to
   provide police with complete guest lists upon request.

   (Description of Source: Bangkok Bangkok Post Online in English -- Website
   of a daily newspaper widely read by the foreign community in Thailand;
   provides good coverage on Indochina. Audited hardcopy circulation of
   83,000 as of 2009. URL: http://www.bangkokpost.com.)

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   Commerce.

   54) Back to Top
   Government Breakdown as a Political Risk
   "Government Breakdown as a Political Risk" -- The Daily Star Headline -
   The Daily Star Online
   &lt; br&gt;
   Tuesday June 15, 2010 01:22:37 GMT
   Tuesday, June 15, 2010

   Ever since financial crisis in Greece last February, financial markets
   haveturned sharply negative. The euro is down about 15 percent against the
   dollarthis year; the Dow Jones Industrial Average just had its worst May
   in 40 years;the interbank lending rate doubled in the past few weeks; and
   oil prices areheading south. At least one new and powerful undercurrent
   explains the anxietyamong investors and traders: the quantum increase in
   political risk.The definition of political risk has generally meant the
   risk of war, coupsd-etat, government expropriation of private property,
   sharp orcapricious increases in regulation. But today market concern is
   with anexpanded concept of political risk that encompasses the growing
   incapacity ofgovernments to accurately define the magnitude of the
   challenges they face, andthen to devise and exec ute policies befitting
   the scale of their problems.Political risk also includes the increasingly
   limited ability of governments tocooperate with one another to solve
   global problems. Markets hate politicalrisk because it is all about
   calculating the weakness of people andorganizations, something that
   doesn-t fit well into Wall Street-scomputer models.Here are some examples
   of how political risk is increasing:Markets worry that Germany, France and
   other users of the euro are incapable ofthe economic changes called for by
   the International Monetary Fund and EuropeanUnion. Spain, for example,
   says it will cut its budget deficit from 11.2percent of GDP in 2009 to 3
   percent in 2013, a staggering cutback. Recently,the Socialist government
   barely passed the first of what should be many morecuts. But now GDP is
   expected to slow even more and Prime Minister JoseLuis Rodriguez
   Zapatero-s political fate is hanging by a thread, makingfurther cuts
   problematic. France could face a similar drama when legislationcomes up
   this summer to raise the retirement age for public sector pensionsfrom 60
   to 62.Markets also remain unconvinced that Greece and others can grow out
   of theirdebts, even with the new $1 trillion rescue package, and assume
   that debtrestructurings - a polite term for 'default' - are acertainty.
   But if governments wait too long to postpone pain, as they are proneto do,
   then the defaults will be chaotic and send shockwaves throughout
   marketswell beyond the euro zone.Markets doubt that the rhetoric about
   achieving a stronger economic Europeanunion - the sine qua non for a
   credible and stable euro over time -far outstrips the willingness of
   European governments to make the necessaryhard decisions. Germany, the
   most important country, shows no inclination tosubordinate its policies to
   broader European needs, such as stimulatingdomestic demand to allow
   expansion of its trading partners- exports. As aresult, traders and
   investors increasingly bet against the euro.The United States, the United
   Kingdom and Japan all run unprecedented peacetimedeficits relative to GDP.
   Each will not only have to make drastic budget cutsand raise taxes, but
   must dramatically downsize pension guarantees and statesubsidies. All need
   to pare down the cost of security, health and publiclyfinanced education.
   Markets doubt that enough cuts will happen, given thecertainty of powerful
   and sustained political pushback, and they worry aboutwhat kind of
   economic chaos the resulting fiscal paralysis will cause.The quality of
   government in China also represents a gigantic political risk,especially
   since all big economic decisions emanate from Beijing. Massivepressures
   are mounting on China to grow fast while avoiding inevitable bubblesand to
   remain ferociously competitive while simultaneously facing pressures
   toimprove wages, revalue the currency and export into a slow growing
   westernworld. If China falters, all bets on a global recovery are
   off.Another pol itical risk is increased financial regulation in America
   and Europe,where the lack of trans-Atlantic coordination is creating the
   specter of aspaghetti bowl of conflicting rules that lead to opportunities
   fordestabilizing regulatory arbitrage. Even after a year of intensive
   effort,including three G-20 summits, it is not clear how banks will be
   taxed, whatlevel of reserves they will have to carry, what rules will
   govern shortselling, what constraints will be put on derivatives trading
   and much more.Markets watch the big deficit nations like the US, and the
   big surpluscountries like China and Germany for signs of a major global
   economicrebalancing, a key requirement for a more stable global economic
   system. Theysee virtually no progress. US savings rates have reached a
   plateau, and Beijingand Berlin want a continuation of the old system, the
   one that helped usher inthe global credit crisis.Markets sense that in the
   event of a double-dip recession, governments are outof fiscal and monetary
   ammunition, and could force central banks to monetizedebt by printing
   money to buy it, thereby setting off serious inflation.Already the
   European Central Bank has come under attack for buying low-ratedGreek
   bonds.Markets recognize that what may be logical for one country doesn-t
   workfor all of them. They wonder how both the US and Europe can
   regaincompetitiveness by supporting weak currencies, the implicit
   underpinning oftheir respective future hopes, without setting off a
   protectionist binge ofcompetitive devaluations.It doesn-t take much
   imagination to conjure up scenarios for whichgovernments are not yet
   prepared, because they are so overwhelmed handlingcurrent crises. What if
   a rating agency downgrades a major country-s debt- say Japan - which is
   skirting deflation and has sky-high debt andweak government, the latter
   symbolized by the recent resignation of PrimeMinister Yukio Hatoyama, the
   fourth prime minister to quit in the last fouryears? What if a major city
   like Los Angeles declares bankruptcy, sendingshockwaves through municipal
   financial markets around the world?We should not be surprised if
   governments have big trouble rising to thechallenges they face. After all,
   the past few decades have celebratedderegulation and the reduction of
   trade and financial barriers, whilehigh-paying business jobs siphoned off
   top talent from public service -the talent in great demand today. And the
   problems facing society - suchas the phenomenal growth of financial
   markets or the profound issuessurrounding climate change - have become
   much more complex due totechnical sophistication and global linkages.If
   political risk is to become less of a menace to the markets, the
   knowledgeand experience of politicians must be vastly upgraded. Our
   political leadersneed the courage to make bold changes in economic and
   social programs and inthe organization of bloated bureaucracies, let alone
   to face the heat fromcitizens who feel aggrieved. A massive in crease in
   international coordinationis required, too.Hopefully, all this will happen
   in time, but right now it-s hard not tosympathize with those on Wall
   Street who see all this as a bridge too far.Jeffrey E. Garten is the Juan
   Trippe professor of international trade andfinance at the Yale School of
   Management. He was formerly undersecretary ofcommerce for international
   trade in the Clinton administration. This commentaryis reprinted with
   permission from YaleGlobal Online (www.yaleglobal.yale.edu).Copyright (c)
   2010, Yale Center for the Study of Globalization,
   YaleUniversity.(Description of Source: Beirut The Daily Star Online in
   English -- Website of the independent daily, The Daily Star; URL:
   http://dailystar.com.lb)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
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   Commerce.

   55) Back to Top
   Arms Expert Cited on Club Missile System Development, Operation, Sale
   Report by Sergey Turchenko: "Soviet-Vintage Biryuza Has Given the
   Americans a Fright. 1983 Development Has Proven More Reliable Than Bulava"
   - Svobodnaya Pressa
   Monday June 14, 2010 16:11:16 GMT
   Daily Telegraph has gotten itself into a panic in the shape of an article
   concerning the combat capabilities of Russia's Biryuza missile complex
   (export designation Club-K), which was demonstrated recently at the
   Defense Services Asia Exhibition in Malaysia. "This system makes possible
   the proliferation of ballistic missiles on a hitherto unseen scale" --
   this is the assessment of the Club-K's potential made by Reuben Johnson, a
   Pentagon defense consultant. "Thanks to the careful disguise you will no
   longer be able to easily ascertain that an object is being utilized as a
   launcher. First a harmless freighter appears off your coast, the next
   minute your military installations have already been obliterated."

   Commenting on the innovation, another military expert, Robert Hewson,
   emphasized: "This Club-K is a total game-changer. The threat is simply
   immense, because no one will be able to say where a strike will be coming
   from." Robert Hewson told the newspaper that the Club-K will enable even
   carriers to be destroyed. As Hewson describes it, the Biryuza's developer
   -- Russia's Novator Experimental Design Bureau (OKB) -- is advertising its
   merchandise chiefly as a means of protection against aggression on the
   part of the United States. Yet carrier groups constitute one of the
   cornerstones of the American armed forces.

   The American military are particularly concerned that Russia is openly
   offering the Club-K to everyone who is under threat of attack fr om the
   United States. As The Daily Telegraph writes, the Club-K will enable even
   the poorest countries to acquire a powerful weapon enabling them to strike
   unexpectedly at the best-protected targets even of an adversary possessing
   military superiority. If it falls into the hands of "rogue states" like
   Venezuela or Iran, The Daily Telegraph points out, the Club-K can
   substantially boost their defense capability in the event of aggression on
   the part of the United States and its allies.

   Alarm is also voiced by the Israeli publication Debka.com: In the event
   the missiles are sold to Syria or Iran, they can easily fall into the
   hands of anti-Israeli terrorist organizations like Lebanon's Hizballah.
   This can change the balance of forces in the Mideast entirely.

   So just what is this missile complex that has alarmed the Americans in
   such a way?

   "The Club missile system (Russian name Biryuza), NATO classification
   SS-N-27 Sizzler, was developed and is produced at OKB Novator
   (Yekaterinburg)," Colonel Yuriy Matushkin, an expert with the Oruzhiye XXI
   Veka (Weapons of the 21st Century) information center, told the Svobodnaya
   Pressa correspondent. "It incorporates 3M-54E and 3M-54E1 antiship
   missiles, 91RE1 and 91RE2 antisubmarine missiles, and 3M-14E
   precision-guided missiles for use against land targets. They can be
   installed on aircraft, surface ships (launching from a 3S-14 universal
   vertical launcher), submarines (launching from torpedo tubes), Kalibr-M
   (Club-M) coastal missile complexes, and any water craft, trucks, and
   railroad flatcars (Club-K). In the latter instance the missile complex is
   disguised as a standard freight container, which cannot be identified by
   conventional reconnaissance assets. Its standard ammunition load is four
   missiles of various modifications intended for use against land and
   water-borne targets. The 3M54E1 version of the missile is particularly
   dangerous for an adversar y, being capable of delivering a 400-kg
   high-explosive penetrating warhead a distance of up to 300 km. In the
   sustainer phase the 3M54E1 flies at Mach 0.8, the normal velocity for
   missiles of this class. In the terminal segment of its flight the missile
   loses height, jettisons the sustainer engine, and accelerates, reaching
   Mach 3.0. In this mode it is extremely difficult to bring it down using
   standard air defense assets.

   "This magnificent missile complex has a Soviet pedigree. Its development
   began back in 1983. The first main element of the complex is the Alfa
   universal missile, which was demonstrated in 1993 (10 years after
   development work got under way) at the Abu Dhabi arms exhibition and the
   MAKS-93 International Aerospace Show in Zhukovskiy. It entered service
   that same year.

   "According to media reports, the first test launch of this complex's
   antiship missile was made from a Northern Fleet nuclear submarine in March
   2000, the second -- in June of that year from a Project 877 diesel
   submarine belonging to the Baltic Fleet. Both launches were deemed
   successful.

   "Today Russia is selling this complex to a number of countries. India
   became the first foreign buyer of the Club system. Surface- and
   submarine-launched missile complexes have been installed aboard the Indian
   Navy's Project 11356 (Talwar-class) frigates and Project 877EKM diesel
   submarines built by Russian enterprises. The Club is being installed
   during maintenance and modernization procedures aboard submarines
   purchased previously. According to media information, the 3M-54E and
   3M-54TE missiles are being installed on Indian submarines and frigates
   respectively. The Club missile system is being delivered to China. Other
   countries, too, are currently showing much interest in the missile
   complex." From the Svobodnaya Pressa Files

   The Club complex can be installed in coastal positions, aboard different
   classes of ships and boats, and on railroad and automotive platforms. The
   Club-K complex is housed in a standard 40-foot marine container.

   The price of the complex -- which includes, aside from the universal
   launch module (USM), combat management and energy-supply and life-support
   modules -- is just $15 million, according to information carried in the
   press.

   Specifications and performance characteristics:

   The 3M54E, 3M54E1, 3M14E, 91RE1, and 91RTE2 missiles range in length from
   6 to 8 meters, are 533 mm in diameter, and have a launch weight of between
   1200 and 2300 kg.

   The payload, weighing up to 450 kg, can be high-explosive penetrating,
   high-explosive fragmentation, or submunition. It has a range of up to 300
   km.

   (Description of Source: Moscow Svobodnaya Pressa in Russian -- Website
   carrying political, economic, and sociocultural news; URL:
   http://www.svpressa.ru/)

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   source cited.Pe rmission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   56) Back to Top
   Ousted Kyrgyz President's Son Detained In Britain
   Updated Version, amending tagging - ITAR-TASS
   Monday June 14, 2010 20:21:11 GMT
   (Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government
   information agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   57) Back to Top
   Ousted Kyrgyz President's Son Detained In Britain (Adds) - ITAR-TASS
   Monday June 14, 2010 20:10:03 GMT
   intervention)

   BISHKEK, June 14 (Itar-Tass) -- Ousted Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek
   Bakiyev's son, Maxim Bakiyev, has been detained in Britain, acting head of
   the national security service Keneshbek Duishebayev said on Monday.He said
   Maxim Bakiyev was detained by British border guards immediately after a
   private jet carrying him had landed at Farnborough Airport in
   Hampshire."You know, he has been charged on a number of counts and put on
   the international wanted list through Interpol," the Kyrgyz news agency
   Aki-Press quoted Duishebayev as saying.He noted that the Kyrgyz
   authorities would also raise the question of Maxim Bakiyev's
   extradition.The British newspaper Sun, which reported Maxim Bakiyev's
   detention, said he was arrested at a tiny Home Counties airport on
   Sunday."Bakiyev - whose father is former Kyrgyz president Kurmanbek
   Bakiyev - was arrested moments after flying into the UK to seek asylum,
   sources said today. He was captured by UK Border Agency officials after
   touching down at Farnborough Airport in Hampshire in a privately hired
   jet," the newspaper said.According to The Sun newspaper, he was planning
   to seek asylum in Britain. Interpol issued an international arrest warrant
   for Maxim Bakiyev, the former head of the Kyrgyz Central Agency for
   Development, Investment and Innovation, on May 6. In Bishkek, he is wanted
   on fraud charges.Maxim Bakiyev was in Washington DC when his father's
   administration collapsed amid mass protests on April 7.Edil Baislaov, the
   leader of the newly formed Aikol El party and the provisional government's
   former chief of staff, called on the British authorities to keep Maxim
   Bakiyev in custody."It will no doubt cost the Kyrgyz tax payer millions of
   dollars to have him extradited, but, finally, he's is locked up," Baisalov
   told EurasiaNet.org on June 14.Kyrg yzstan's Prosecutor-General's Office
   claim that last year Bakiyev illegally transferred at least 35 million
   U.S. dollars of a 300 million U.S. dollar Russian loan to accounts at
   several banks under his control. He and his business associates allegedly
   used the rest of the Russian loan to buy and sell shares on foreign stock
   exchanges, The Sun said.Farnborough airport is the venue of the
   Farnborough Airshow and is usually used for planes of various commercial
   companies.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main
   government information agency)

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   58) Back to Top
   Greece Attempts to Prevent Turkey's Request Not to Submit Flight Plans in
   Aeg ean
   Report by Angelos Athanasopoulos: "A Game of 'Chess' With Ankara on the
   Flights in the Aegean" - To Vima
   Monday June 14, 2010 15:23:08 GMT
   A tough game on the diplomatic chessboard for the flights in the Aegean is
   underway between Greece and Turkey. Ankara attempts "through the back
   door" as well as through the ICAO to avoid the Greek request for
   submission of flight plans for Turkish military aircraft flying in the
   international airspace in the Aegean. Turkey takes advantage of the
   discussions over the past couple of years, within the framework of the
   ICAO, as well as the tolerance of powerful nations like the United States
   and the United Kingdom, to promote its plans.

   There is a lot to say about the case in question. About two years ago, in
   2008, the ICAO began discussions to implement the concept of "Flexible
   Airspace Users" (FUA). What does this mean? It means that it was necessary
   to find appropriate regulations for easier and freer use of the
   international airspace.

   As is widely known, Greece insists that Turkey must submit flight plans
   for its fighter aircraft flying within the Athens FIR (Flight Information
   Region). Ankara does not accept that. The problems began in July 2008.
   During the first ICAO discussions on the EANP (European Air Navigation
   Plan) the first position was recorded that military activities (for
   example, exercises) can be carried out within the Athens FIR, without
   notifying the Greek side, therefore without submitting flight plans.
   Athens reacted. Soon, however, a serious problem was noticed: the Greek
   side could not prevent a negative development, since a future decision
   would be made by a simple majority. Turkey proceeded with a step further
   in May 2009. It proposed that the EANP include the "photographic"
   reference that "there are certain circumstanc es" in which a country (in
   this case, Turkey) could even not notify about a military operation. The
   aim of the Turkish proposal was clear: to put an end to the submission of
   flight plans.

   Officials of the ICAO, who visited Athens in the summer of 2009, exerted
   pressure for the lifting of the Greek objections. The impasse was
   apparent. Eventually, Greece managed to include in the text that failure
   to disclose military operations can take place only in "exceptional
   circumstances" and that the safety of civil aviation must be taken into
   account. It also managed to add a clear footnote to the text of the ICAO
   with its position.

   Finally, Greece lodged a formal objection on 22 January 2010, having
   secured earlier an extension of the deadline it had to respond. The issue
   has been pending since then in the ICAO Air Navigation Commission.
   According to sources, the commission has referred the matter back to the
   Regional Bureau for Europe and North A tlantic in Paris for consultation
   with Athens, as well as Nicosia, which has also lodged an objection.

   (Description of Source: Athens To Vima in Greek -- Independent daily
   critical of the New Democracy party)

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   Commerce.

   59) Back to Top
   Natl Foreign Policy Lab Director Proposes Count Formula for Next START
   Article by National Foreign Policy Laboratory Director Nikita Ivanov:
   "Reality of the Strategic Balance" - Krasnaya Zvezda Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 14:49:13 GMT
   Consent to the Treaty by the United States registers what for it already
   is the superfluo usness of a greater number of SYaS (Strategic Nuclear
   Forces). It is interested further in a reduced role of nuclear weapons
   altogether. One feature of the Prague Treaty already is Russia's response
   to this -- recorded there for the first time, albeit on a small scale, is
   the role of nonnuclear weapons in global parity in the form of a count of
   general-purpose delivery vehicles. Nonnuclear weapons can perform
   strategic offensive functions today, especially in a first counterforce
   strike. Therefore if one does go on to a second stage after SNV (START)
   ratification, the subject of discussion must be the question not of
   nuclear weapons, but of the kind of nuclear or nonnuclear capabilities
   with which countries can attack each other's national territories from
   standard positions of weapons and troops. If by "divulging" the overall
   number of warheads the United States is engaging in fantasy on the subject
   of peaceful coexistence, then we too can do so. As they say , I have a
   dream (Translator note: latter phase rendered in English). Crisis of
   Traditional Views on the Security System

   The entire modern architecture of strategic mutual security is compelled
   to be built on an artificial paradigm. Only certain mutually agreed-upon
   kinds of arms are subject to control, often with artificially restricted
   characteristics and with no consideration of the broad range of
   ever-expanding threats.

   For example, the Soviet-American ABM Treaty envisaged a limit of 3 km/sec
   on the speed of interceptor missiles. Can a country with the capability of
   making interceptor missiles with a speed of 5 km/sec long adhere to a
   limit of 3 km/sec? In the very same way, the 1987 Soviet-American Treaty
   on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles set
   artificial limits on the development of this kind of weapon in both
   countries-parties. This cut short attempts to influence the balance of
   forces by preserving formal parity in SY aS. But this agreement simply
   engendered in the United States and other Western countries (and now also
   in us) a striving to develop "circumventing" kinds of weapons of the very
   same range class.

   Of course, it was impossible to do otherwise. All these treaties played
   their part by limiting the endless buildup of strategic nuclear arsenals
   when the latter already were sufficient for destroying the entire planet.
   This allowed both sides to "factor out" of the relevant balance their
   nonstrategic and nonnuclear potentials, which before the beginning of mass
   introduction of satellite guidance systems remained strictly a tactical
   class of weapons.

   The situation changed fundamentally in the 1990's. Disintegration of the
   USSR and Warsaw Pact and the total reorientation of all former European
   satellites of Moscow and of a number of former Soviet republics toward the
   West led to almost instantaneous obliteration of the entire Russian
   "strateg ic security area," which was part of the relevant reality under
   previous agreements. As a result of the NATO enlargement that followed,
   Alliance borders came right up to regions of "historical Russia." In the
   military sense this coincided with the latest "revolution in military
   affairs" that occurred in the West in the form of large-scale introduction
   of information te chnologies and the proliferation of precision-guided
   munitions (PGM), with a leap in their qualitative characteristics.

   As a result, by taking advantage of its technological and financial
   advantage, the United States wants to create such military superiority
   over Russia and any other powers that would be expressed in neutralization
   of the threat of mutual assured destruction. A situation already has
   formed where the United States and its allies can threaten Russia with
   their nonstrategic and nonnuclear forces in a most direct way and
   essentially have been given the opportunit y to execute strategic missions
   with nonstrategic forces.

   Thus, if strategic nuclear forces are limited today, the PRO (BMD) will be
   developed; if the BMD is limited, means of delivery will be improved; if
   the latter are limited, the United States and NATO will physically move
   their military contingents and fleets to Russia's borders, they will
   develop electronic means of neutralizing a launch, and so on. And this is
   progress: in the final account we will not be able to limit RDT&amp;amp;E in
   the United States, nor do we want to do so. Proposal of a New Approach

   In the 21st century it makes sense to think about a fundamentally
   different approach based not on attempts to limit the innovative
   component, but on comprehensively linking all the main types of threats to
   each other's national territory and bringing them to a single formalized
   balance. By the way, the second feature of the Prague Treaty already has
   been the first step -- agreement to the formula that each party itself
   determines the makeup of its strategic forces, i.e., there is an overall
   number of arms, but how to manage them is up to each party. This same
   experience must be transferred to all threats.

   With the weakening of conventional Armed Forces, Russia now views its SYaS
   as the foundation of national defense. The United States, to the contrary,
   is objectively interested in reducing the role of nuclear weapons as the
   "great equalizer." In addition, the United States has been involved in a
   large number of armed conflicts in various regions of the world and is
   interested in expeditionary groupings having precision or tactical nuclear
   weapons as the primary means of defense, or more correctly, of attack
   (legal (term), preemptive actions (last two words rendered in English), a
   "preemptive first strike," as US National Security Strategy states).

   The basis of the approach can be the inclusion in the count only of those
   elements of th e sides' armed forces which actually are capable of
   providing for those same preemptive actions (last two words rendered in
   English) with respect to the enemy's national territory. All
   geographically remote, nondeployed, and especially reserve components of
   the sides' armed forces must be factored out. In other words, it is a
   matter of counting all forces capable of delivering a first strike against
   the opposite side's territory without changing position. Such elements are
   the deployed SYaS units; only tactical nuclear weapons with the real
   capability of delivery to national territory; groups of forces with a
   factor that is a function of numerical strength, armament, and proximity
   to each other's borders; and any other elements with the capability of
   delivering a strike (submarines and fleets, PGM with fixed-site basing at
   military bases, and so on). The stipulated limit of consideration for
   ground troops can be the capability of redeploying to the opposing side's
   border s within 12 hours from a location outside of national territory.
   For the air force and naval aviation it can be the capability of reaching
   the opposite side's territory in terms of technical radius with minimal
   combat payload but without aerial refueling. For navies it can be
   groupings of the main types of combatant ships deployed in sea TVD's
   (theaters of military operations) washing the territory of the parties.
   Methodology of Consideration

   Without question, practical treaty reconcil iation of such diverse kinds
   of armament with consideration of their factor of deployability and reach
   represents a serious problem. We believe that to this end a uniform system
   of units must be introduced that are common to all kinds of armament based
   on a conditional factor of "destructive force" or "infliction of damage."
   It is proposed to take one nuclear warhead of arbitrary "standard" yield
   (from 100 to 550 kt) as the unit of measurement. A kind of arbitrary unit
   of "strategic offensive potential" (later abbreviated as YeSNP) thus is
   formed. All other forces and resources subject to being counted are
   equated to this unit with an individual factor.

   The count of "strategic offensive potentials" of the allies of both sides
   is a separate problem. The contribution to military potential by legally
   bound US allies in the NATO bloc surpasses the same contribution of states
   that now can be considered allies of Russia. Moreover, not one of them can
   strike US national territory. In view of this catastrophic imbalance, the
   United States is not interested in agreeing to counting the forces of
   allies within the framework of any kind of agreements on strategic issues,
   but in all fairness of course, they have to be considered, say, with a
   factor of 1 to 4. It is apropos here to count UK nuclear forces as 1 to 2,
   and on the other hand exclude France entirely from the nuclear count. For
   its part, Russ ia could agree to exclude nondeployed nuclear weapons from
   the count -- although it is obvious that the US system presumes the
   capability of more rapid deployment -- or omit the possibility seen by
   experts for the United States to use variously based interceptor missiles
   in Europe as offensive weapons.

   So in summing up, a flight of NATO fighter-bombers with PGM at an air base
   near Russia's borders must be considered the very same strategic offensive
   weapons with respect to Russia as the Russian Topol-M intercontinental
   ballistic missile with respect to the United States. Specialists will
   decide how to "weigh" them correctly; we only suggested a first approach.

   But for now look into the eyes of reality: even if we take the Moscow
   Treaty as duly executed and equalize the SYaS, the United States has the
   capability of attacking Russia with forces superior to ours in yield by an
   equivalent of almost 500 warheads. Such a difference is not catastrophic
   in the count "in general," but we are talking only about deployed weapons
   and formations capable of realizing this difference for a first
   counterforce strike. Then the remaining free forces are left unpunished
   for a second countervalue strike. And the less the size of the SYaS, the
   more the weight of this difference in other armaments. This is a
   preliminary count, but we assume the picture is clear in a rough
   approximation.

   Equality of mutual threats is the future of relations between Russia and
   the United States. It appears that only by having explained ourselves in
   this matter is it possible to move forward and a joint global BMD can
   become reality, for example. * * * Correlation of Units of Strategic
   Offensive Potentials (YeSNP) of a First Strike With Respect to One Another
   (Russia and United States)

   2010 Makeup ofDeployed Threats

   Russia(YeSNP)

   USA(YeSNP)

   Explanations

   Strategic Nuclear Forces

   2,200

   2,200
   It is proposed to consider the Moscow Treaty duly executed already today
   (formally by 31 December 2012). We will note, however, that if we take dat
   a of the Bureau of Verification, Compliance, and Implementation (VCI),
   which counts maximum payload capability of a delivery vehicle, then as of
   1 July 2009 the United States had 5,916 BCh's (warheads) on deployed
   delivery vehicles as opposed to 3,897 for Russia -- 2,000 more.

   Tactical nuclear weapons

   26

   316

   TYaO (tactical nuclear weapons) with the capability of operational
   delivery are to be counted. Thus, for Russia the delivery vehicles
   (Tu-22M3) capable of reaching Alaska in principle (count as) 1 delivery
   vehicle -- 1 warhead; 16 KRKB's (not further expanded, probably
   ship-launched cruise missiles) on 2 deployed APL's (nuclear submarines) in
   the countable location. For the United States: 200 warehoused bombs in
   Europe (all with warheads); Navy -- 50% of Tomahawk KRKB's and 33% of
   aerial b ombs for alert duty on APL's, ships, and deck-based aircraft
   (used from among those warehoused).

   Conventional weapons

   0

   115

   Means of striking enemy national territory from an attack position
   (iskhodnoye polozheniye) are to be counted. Russia has none. For the
   United States: 48 F-22A's in Alaska, counted as 12 YeSNP, 3 KMP (Marine
   Corps) expeditionary battalions in the countable location in naval forces,
   600 PU KR (cruise missile launchers) on 31 naval units in the countable
   location -- 100 YeSNP.

   Allies (with reduction factors)

   0

   174

   UK SYaS -- 192 warheads with factor (according to 1998 statement on
   limiting each of 4 PLARB's (SSBN's) to 48 warheads; UK SYaS can have a
   maximum of 768 warheads). NATO aviation -- 1,220 strike aircraft,
   countable as 305 YeSNP with factor. NATO naval and ground forces -- 8
   YeSNP with factor.

   Total

   2,226

   2,805

   (Description of Source: Moscow Krasnaya Zvezda On line in Russian --
   Website of official daily newspaper of the Russian Ministry of Defense;
   URL: http://www.redstar.ru)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   60) Back to Top
   UK-Based Pan-Arab Editor Lists Demands Arabs Want Turkey To Resolve
   Commentary by Tarqi al-Humayd: "Turkey: Here's Our List of Demands" -
   Al-Sharq al-Awsat Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 14:48:14 GMT
   (Description of Source: London Al-Sharq al-Awsat Online in English --
   Website of influential London-based pan-Arab Saudi daily; editorial line
   reflects Saudi official stance.URL: http://www.asharq-e.com/ )

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   61) Back to Top
   Iran's Military Warns Against Inspecting Iranian Ships in Persian Gulf -
   Al-Alam Television
   Monday June 14, 2010 18:29:02 GMT
   Armed Forces Staff, warned against the inspection of Iranian ships by some
   countries after the passing of the latest sanction resolution by the
   Security Council.

   (Muted image of Al-Jazayeri in front of Al-Alam's microphone) Al-Jazayeri
   told Al-Alam that Tehran will respond accordingly to any hostile measure
   that targets the Iranian ships and planes. He added that Iran called on
   all parties to discipline their behavior because Iran had carried out an
   inspection of ships in the Persian Gulf.Commenting on the possibility of
   an Iranian response, by inspecting ships in the Persian Gulf, Al-Jazayeri
   said that his country will take the appropriate decisions on the basis of
   emergency developments.(Description of Source: Tehran Al-Alam Television
   in Arabic -- 24-hour Arabic news channel, targetting a pan-Arab audience,
   of Iranian state-run television, officially controlled by the office of
   the supreme leader)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   62) Back to Top
   Syrian, US Sources Deny Reports Syrian Ambassador Withdrawn From
   Washington
   Report by Kamil Saqr in Damascus: "Following Senate's Refusal To Appoint
   Robert F ord Ambassador in Damascus, US and Syrian Sources; Ambassador
   Mustafa's Long Vacation Does Not Mean a Call Back From his Duties" -
   Al-Quds al-Arabi Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 11:23:26 GMT
   In the details that "Al-Quds al-Arabi" has obtained, a high-level Syrian
   source with connections to the Syrian Foreign Ministry expressed its
   surprise at the reports that Syria had withdrawn Imad Mustafa, its
   ambassador in Washington, in response to Washington's delay in sending its
   ambassador to Damascus. It pointed out that Amb. Mustafa "is having a
   working vacation" in Syria and took part in several official occasions and
   meetings in Damascus. When the same source was asked if matters had
   recently reached what could be a dead end in the prospects of the
   political dialogue and thus prompted Syria to withdraw its ambassador, the
   source said contacts were continuing between the Syrian and American
   capitals and there was no blocked prospect between the two countries.

   In parallel to this, informed sources at the US Embassy in Damascus said
   these reports were political speculations for which there were no
   justification because, according to the American sources, the long
   vacation of any country's ambassador which he spends in his country does
   not mean he has been recalled from his post. They pointed out in their
   statements to "Al-Quds al-Arabi" that the US Embassy had no knowledge or
   information of this kind and added: "Such things do not happen in secret.
   We as the American Embassy were supposed to know of this." They disclosed
   that a technical American delegation would visit the Syrian Foreign
   Ministry. (Passage omitted on Syrian President's meeting with US Senator
   Bob Corker)

   (Description of Source: London Al-Quds al-Arabi Online in Arabic --
   Website of London-based independent Arab nationalist daily with strong
   anti-US bias. URL: http://www.alquds.co.uk/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   63) Back to Top
   Kenya Calls on Security Council To Upgrade AU Peacekeeping Mission in
   Somalia
   Report by Nick Wachira: "Kenya Wants the Mission Upgraded to UN Mission" -
   The East African Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 11:33:33 GMT
   (Description of Source: Nairobi The East African Online in English --
   Website of the weekly (Monday) English-language newspaper published by the
   Nation Media Group; coverage is primarily concentrated on Kenya, Tanzania,
   and Uganda but includes other regions as well; URL: htt
   p://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   64) Back to Top
   Iraqi Kurdish Arabic Press 14 Jun 10
   The following lists selected items from two Baghdad-based Kurdish
   newspapers on 14 Jun. To request additional processing, please call OSC at
   (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735, or fax (703) 613-5735. - Iraq -- OSC
   Summary
   Monday June 14, 2010 11:02:00 GMT
   http://taakhinews.org/ http://taakhinews.org )

   --Al-Ta'akhi 150-word report citing SLC member Kamal al-Sa'idi as saying
   that the National Alliance will secure the post of prime minister, noting
   that some Arab and regional countries which he did not name sought to
   steal the post of prime minister. He expected that the Al-Iraqiyah List
   will get the post of parliament speaker, as that the Kurds will secure the
   post of president.

   --Al-Ta'akhi 350-word report citing Al-Iraqiyah List member Muhammad
   Salman al-Ta'i as saying that the meeting between Allawi and Al-Maliki
   contributed to opening new horizons for the achievement of understandings
   that would facilitate the formation of the new government and get
   everybody out of the bottleneck. SLC member Abd-al-Hadi al-Hassani said
   that the meeting between Allawi and Al-Maliki is an important step in the
   right direction. Tariq al-Ma'muri, a political analyst, said that the
   meeting cleared the atmosphere between the two men, who are competing for
   the post of prime minister. He added: the meeting is a prelude to new
   understandings.

   --Al-Ta'akhi 70-word report citing Al-Iraqiyah List member Jamal
   al-Battikh as saying that new stands on t he formation of the new
   government will emerge in the next two days. He added: The meeting between
   Allawi and Al-Maliki paved the way for relevant negotiations. Immediately
   following the end of the Allawi-Al-Maliki meeting, joint SLC-Al-Iraqiyah
   List committees began meetings to discuss the formation of the new
   government. The Al-Iraqiyah List will not renounce its constitutional
   right. The negotiations that have started will achieve solutions to the
   issue of forming the next government.

   --Al-Ta'akhi 60-word report citing Kurdistan Alliance (KA) member Muhsin
   Sa'dun as welcoming the meeting that brought together Allawi and Al-Maliki
   on 12 June. Sa'dun added that all members of the Kurdistan Blocs Coalition
   delegation will be in Baghdad today for talks with the winning blocs on
   the formation of the new government.

   --Al-Ittihad 50-word report on the arrival of President Talabani in
   Baghdad from Al-Sulaymaniyah, where he participated in the 3d Patriotic
   Union of Kurdistan (PUK) Congress. (Description of source: Baghdad
   Al-Ittihad Online in Arabic - Website of Al-Ittihad, daily newspaper
   published by the Iraqi Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, PUK; URL:

   http://www.alittihad.com/ http://www.alittihad.com )

   --Al-Ittihad 400-word report citing Al-Iraqiyah List Spokesman Haydar
   al-Mulla as saying that Al-Iraqiyah List member Hasan al-Alawi apologized
   to the Council of Representatives for not being able to chair the new
   parliament's 1 st session slated for today, Monday, due to indisposition.
   Deputy Prime Minister Ruz Nuri shawis said that KA member Fu'ad Ma'sum
   will chair the new parliament's 1 st session.

   --Al-Ittihad 1,000-word report citi ng Al-Iraqiyah List Spokesman Haydar
   al-Mulla as saying that the Al-Iraqiyah List's pursuit of the premiership
   is a strategic decision. He added: We stick to our constitutional right to
   form the next government. The Al-Iraqiyah List cannot come under external
   pressure or be part of political bargains. Commenting on the creation of
   the National Alliance, Al-Mulla said: The Al-Iraqiyah List believes that
   the Federal Court has overstepped, as there is no authority that can
   register the merger of coalitions. KA member Ala Talabani said: I expect
   the new parliament to announce the name of the largest parliamentary bloc
   which will be assigned the task of forming the new government. INA member
   Qasim Dawud expected the new parliament's 1st session to be a ceremonial
   one. SLC member Adnan al-Sarraj said that the possibility of forging an
   alliance between the SLC and the Al-Iraqiyah List is far-fetched. Security
   Developments

   --Al-Ta'akhi 300-word news agency-datelined report on the seizure of the
   Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) by gunmen in Baghdad yesterday.

   --Al-Ittihad 1,000-word report on the CBI seizure by gunmen yesterday,
   which, according to the report, resulted in killing 15 persons and
   wounding around 50 others. Meanwhile, an Iraqi polic e source said that
   dozens of CBI employees were killed in the CBI attack. Several gunmen
   believed to be affiliated with the Al-Qa'ida Organization were also killed
   in the attack. CBI security chief Abd-al-Mahdi al-Amiri said that seven
   gunmen were killed while trying to storm the CBI, and that 16 CBI
   employees were either killed or wounded in the attack.

   --Al-Ittihad 450-word report citing a statement issued by the Sabean
   Mandean Community Presidency as calling for the creation of a security
   council to provide security for the minorities of Iraq. Such a council
   could be associated with the Armed Forces General Command, the statement
   added. Kurdistan Region Developments/Iranian Artillery Shelling of Border
   Areas

   --Al-Ta'akhi 170-word report on a telephone conversation held between
   Kurdistan Region President Mas'ud Barzani and President Talabani. During
   the telephone conversation, Brazani congratulated Talibani on the success
   of the 3d PUK Congress and on his re election as PUK secretary general.

   --Al-Ta'akhi 300-word report saying that the Kurdistan Blocs Coalition
   delegation left for Baghdad for talks with the key winning blocs on the
   formation of the new government. The delegation underlined the need to
   resolve outstanding issues between Baghdad and Arbil, particularly those
   pertaining to Kirkuk and disputed areas.

   --Al-Ta'akhi 130-word report on a meeting held between Falah Mustafa, head
   of the Foreign Relations Department in the Kurdistan Region, and Farah
   Anwar Pandith, US State Department special representative to Muslim
   communities. Ties between the United States and the Kurdistan Region and
   the political process in Iraq were discussed.

   --Al-Ittihad 100-word report citing Sinan Chalabi, minister of trade and
   industry in the Kurdistan Region, as saying that a joint committee between
   Turkey and the Kurdistan Region was formed to promote trade ties between
   the two sides.

   --Al-Ittihad 400-word report saying that a Kurdistan Regional Government
   (KRG) delegation will leave for the United Kingdom to attend the Kurdistan
   Trade and Investment Conference 2010, slated for 15-16 June.

   --Al-Ittihad 70-word report saying that several areas in the Choman
   District, an affiliate of the Arbil Governorate, came under Iranian
   artillery shelling yesterday, Sunday. Material damage to farmlands and
   private property was caused. 3d PUK Congress

   Al-Ittihad 400-word report listing the names of the people elected to the
   PUK Leadership Committee. Hiro Ibrahim Ahmad, President Talabani's wife,
   and Shalaw Kosrat Rasul, son of PUK second-in-command Kosrat Rasul Ali,
   were among those elected to the Leadership Committee. Commentaries

   --In a 450-word edi torial in Al-Ittihad, Deputy Chief Editor Abd-al-Hadi
   Mahdi says: All eyes are now set on the new parliament's 1 st session,
   slated for today, Monday, 14 June. People want to know the outcome of this
   session, which will be held at a time when the relevant parties are still
   in disagreement over issues. Some expect today's session to be a
   ceremonial one, while others think that the names of the largest blocs
   will be announced at this session, particularly since the Federal Court
   settled this issue. But all this is pure speculation. This session will be
   a ceremonial session. Once the session is held, the parliament will be
   kept in open session after the eldest MP is selected as interim speaker to
   manage the parliament deliberations pending the election of a parliament
   speaker and his deputies. A new constitutional hurdle that has recently
   emerged concerns the fact that according to Article 49 of the Iraqi
   Constitution, it is not possible for one to be an MP and hold an official
   post at the same time. That said, the convening of the new parliament's 1
   st session is an important step in the midst of the political moves under
   way in Iraq. Optimists believe that the convening of this session will put
   an end to the ongoing tug-of-war and expedite the formation of the new
   government. Meanwhile, pessimists do not think that the new government
   will be formed in the foreseeable future.

   --In a 500-word article in Al-Ittihad, Sati Raji says: Major world media
   outlets, including newspapers and television networks, have categorized
   Iraqi election lists by saying that they are either Shiite or Sunni. The
   election results proved this judgment and assessment by these media
   outlets to be true. Outside of Iraq, the story of the Turkish aid flotilla
   sent to the Gaza shores and the relevant developments were looked at from
   a sectarian prism, from the perspective of rivalry and competition between
   Turkey, a Sunni state, and Iran, a Shiite state. Likewise, reactions to
   the selection of Rima Fakih, an American citizen of Shiite Lebanese
   descent, as Miss USA, were also tinged with sectarian sentiments. This
   sectarian reading of developments by media outlets raises many questions.
   One wonders whether this sectarian reading and categorization of
   developments is forced upon media outlets, or whether this only reflects
   the personal views of editors and correspondents. The question is: Does
   this sectarian categorization of figures, parties, and regions make it
   easier for media persons and outlets to understand and analyze
   developments? Or has the region actually sunk into a sectarian quagmire?

   --In a 1,300-word article in Al-Ta'akhi, Halim al-A'raji ponders the
   meaning of the phrase "the new Iraq" saying: The new Iraq is a reversal of
   what Iraq knew and did prior to April 2003. The new Iraq put an end to an
   era of dictatorship, despotism, marginalization, and the monopoly of
   authority by elites. A new jargon has emerged. People are now talking of
   democracy, freedom, federalism, partnership, the ballot box, the peaceful
   exchange of authority, participation in the decisionmaking process,
   withholding of confidence, transparency, team work, respect for the
   constitution and human rights, and the independence of the judiciary.
   Other regions modeled on the Kurdistan Region might emerge in central Iraq
   and southern Iraq. One needs to be optimistic, as, judging from the
   experiences of other nations and peoples, drastic change is usually
   accompanied by bottlenecks and hurdles, which cannot be overcome
   painlessly. However, there are selfless figures who are working to push
   the new Iraq forward. Meanwhile, there are others who seek to destroy the
   new Iraq.

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   65) Back to Top
   Iran's Press TV airs documentary on post-election violence - Press TV
   Monday Ju ne 14, 2010 10:32:31 GMT
   A documentary aired by Iran's English-language Press TV on 12 and 13 June
   accused Western media, including the BBC, of fanning public protests in
   the wake of the 12 June 2009 presidential polls, which it said acted "like
   a vaccine" and strengthened the ruling regime."Foreign media, especially
   BBC Farsi, played a significant role in fanning the fury of the
   post-election unrest," said the documentary ("The Real Fake"), produced
   and narrated by Iranian film director Nader Talebzadeh."The post-election
   trauma acted like a vaccine - momentarily weakening the body but
   ultimately strengthening it in the long run," it said.The documentary was
   designed to provide "realistic insight" into the developments in Iran
   before and after the election. It was also aimed at resolving the
   "ambiguities that foreign audience may have about the presidential
   election" , Press TV said in a report posted on its website on 12
   June.However, the documentary appeared to support the positions of the
   authorities on the election dispute and sought to disprove opposition
   claims that the vote was rigged in favour of the incumbent president,
   Mahmud Ahmadinezhad.It drew attention to what it described as a
   discrepancy between statements by the main opposition candidate, Mirhoseyn
   Musavi. Before the vote was over, Musavi held a press conference claiming
   that, according to information received from his representatives all over
   Iran, he had won. This is while he also said that his representatives had
   been thrown out of polling stations across the country, the documentary
   said.In an apparent bid to support the idea that Ahmadinezhad had a
   significant backing of people in rural regions of the country, the
   documentary showed interviews with villagers in various parts of the
   country who said they had voted for Ahmadinezhad because he was a
   "modest", "honest" and "devout" man.Commenting on the casualties during
   the unrest, including the murder of a nephew of Mirhoseyn Musavi and a
   young woman, Neda Aqa-Soltan, the documentary said: "The perpetrators of
   both crimes are yet to be found... These crimes were planned, strategized
   and executed for political gains."The documentary also promoted the idea
   that the opposition had braced itself for unrest well before the election.
   It quoted Musavi's wife, Zahra Rahnavard, as telling a Saudi television
   channel: "If there is no fraud, Musavi will be president."It also showed
   video featuring blurred pictures of a veiled woman, identified as the wife
   of influential pro-opposition cleric Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, saying in
   Farsi with English subtitles: "People should pour into the streets if
   there is fraud."The documentary also showed people, identified as
   protesters, destroying and setting fire to public property, including
   buses and b anks.(Description of Source: Tehran Press TV in English --
   24-hour English-language news channel of Iranian state-run television,
   officially controlled by the office of the supreme leader)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   66) Back to Top
   Roundup of Khuzestan Province Friday Prayer Sermons 11 Jun 10 - Vision of
   the Islamic Republic of Iran Khuzestan Provincial TV
   Monday June 14, 2010 08:56:01 GMT
   Persian at 1530 GMT on 11 June broadcast a roundup of the Friday prayer
   sermons from that province in which the prayer leaders focused mainly on
   the new UN Security Council resolution on Iran, the late st Israeli raid
   on a Gaza-bound aid flotilla and the Muslim month of Rajab.

   The Ahvaz interim Friday prayer leader, Hojjat ol-Eslam val Moslemin
   Hasanzadeh, spoke of his appreciation of people's enthusiastic
   participation in the 21st anniversary of the death of Imam Khomeyni and
   said the UN Security Council resolution on Iran contradicted international
   law. "This resolution has been adopted while the UNSC does not adopt even
   one resolution to condemn the recent crime of the Zionist regime, namely
   the attack on the humanitarian Freedom Flotilla," Hasanzadeh said.
   Pointing out that this resolution would have no result but "disgrace" for
   the west and America, he said: "Brazil and Turkey voted against the
   resolution and the governments and peoples of these countries deserve to
   be praised." He said: "These resolutions are unable to influence the
   intent of the Muslim and revolutionary people, who are devoted to the late
   Imam Khomeyni and s upreme leader (Ayatollah Ali Khamene'i), to reach
   their ideals and achieve peaceful nuclear energy." He then congratulated
   the people on the anniversary of the establishment of the Constructive
   Jihad Organization (currently the Agricultural Jihad Ministry) and
   described it as the key service for many people in villages. He pointed to
   the International Desert Greening Day and expressed his hope that, with
   the authorities' effective measures, the problem of dust storms, which the
   province has been suffering from for several years, would be resolved
   soon.The Ahvaz Kutabdollah interim Friday prayer leader, Hojjat ol-Eslam
   Jaberian, condemned the UNSC resolution on Iran. He said that before the
   17 May Tehran declaration on a nuclear fuel swap, Obama had sent two
   messages to the presidents of Brazil and Turkey on the diplomatic
   settlement of the Iranian nuclear issue and said: "The issuing of the new
   resolution signals the dual and biased behavior of America towards the
   Iranian nation." While pointing out that "America intends to mislead the
   world public opinion regarding the crimes of the Zionist regime" he said:
   "They should know that they can no longer cheat nations." He said that the
   Iranian nation would always support the oppressed Palestinian people "and
   would defeat the enemy of nations and humanity with the help of God and
   the wise supreme leader" and added: "These sanctions will have no effect
   on the wish and will of the people of Iran." He congratulated people on
   Agricultural Jihad Week and said he appreciated the efforts of the
   personnel of the provincial branch of the Agricultural Jihad
   Organization.The Andimeshk Friday prayer leader, Hojjat ol-Eslam Khodami,
   said that "the more enemies threaten Iran, the firmer its basis will
   become."The Shushtar Friday prayer leader, Hojjat ol-Eslam Mohaqeq, said:
   "The adoption of the new resolution by the Security Council indicates t
   hat the world faces a biased and unjust international system, which is
   based on the rule of super powers."The Ramhormoz Friday prayer leader,
   Hojjat ol-Eslam Musavi, condemned the UNSC resolution on Iran and said:
   "This council proved its unreliability on the international scene."The
   Shadegan Friday prayer leader, Hojjat ol-Eslam Savari, referred to the
   formation of the Mahdaviat Foundation (to promote the culture of believing
   in the hidden imam Mahdi) in the township, and called on people to
   cooperate with this establishment in all fields.The Ramshir Friday prayer
   leader, Hojjat ol-Eslam Salmanpur, described the UNSC's recent resolution
   on Iran as yet "another blot on the activities of colonialist and
   tyrannical powers."The Taleqani Friday prayer leader, Hojjat ol-Eslam
   Mo'arref, referred to the UNSC resolution on Iran and said: "This
   resolution is ineffective and only boosts the Iranian nation's
   self-confidence."The Abadan interim Friday prayer leader, Hojjat ol-Eslam
   val Moslemin Abdollah-Esfahani, said that "the recent resolution of the
   UNSC, which is adopted under the pressure of America and the UK, is
   completely fake and illogical."The Khorramshahr Friday prayer leader,
   Hojjat ol-Eslam Nuri, referred to the "recent crime of the Zionist regime
   of attacking the Gaza Freedom Flotilla" and said: "As a result of the
   comprehensive support of the leaders of America and Britain for the fake
   Zionist regime, this regime gets courage to commit brutal and inhuman
   crimes against the Gaza people and entire nations."The Hendijan Friday
   prayer leader, Hojjat ol-Eslam Qoveyshavi, said that the UNSC resolution
   would have no impact on the will and aims of the Islamic Republic's "holy
   system."The Arvandkenar Friday prayer leader, Hojjat ol-Eslam Sharafi,
   said: "Through their endeavor, the Iranian youth will trample on the
   recent American resolution of the UN Security Council and will make even
   more effort towards the country's progress and honor."The Haftgel Friday
   prayer leader, Hojjat ol-Eslam Ebrahimipur, deemed the UNSC resolution
   "completely illogical" and said: "Our devoted government will never give
   up pursuing the nuclear rights of the nation."The Dezful, Mahshahr, Izeh
   and Omidiyeh Friday prayer leaders referred to the approaching Muslim
   month of Rajab and called on people to follow God's orders.(Description of
   Source: Ahvaz Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Khuzestan Provincial
   TV in Persian - state-run provincial television)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   67) Back to Top
   London School of Economics Report Claims I SI, Zardari Back Taliban
   Unattributed report: ISI, Zardari join forces to back Taliban! - The
   News Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 07:37:58 GMT
   London School of Economics report claims Pakistan playing a double-game of
   astonishing magnitude; Zardari told Taliban prisoners they were arrested
   because he was under US pressure; Army, presidential spokeswoman, Afghan
   Taliban reject report

   LONDON: The ISI intelligence agency provides funding, training and
   sanctuary to the Taliban in Afghanistan on a scale far greater than
   previously believed, a study claimed on Sunday.However, the Pakistani
   military dismissed the report for the London School of Economics (LSE) as
   "malicious and baseless".

   The LSE study, based on interviews with nine Taliban field commanders in
   Afghanistan between February and May this year, claims the relationship
   between the ISI and the militants goe s far beyond current estimates.

   "Although, the Taliban have a strong endogenous impetus, according to
   Taliban commanders the ISI orchestrates, sustains and strongly influences
   the movement," wrote author Matt Waldman, a fellow at Harvard University.

   "They say it gives sanctuary to both Taliban and Haqqani groups, and
   provides huge support in terms of training, funding, munitions, and
   supplies. In their words, this is 'as clear as the sun in the sky'."

   Waldman said the ISI appears to exert 'significant influence' on strategic
   decision-making and field operations of the Taliban and controls the most
   violent insurgent units, some of which appear to be based in Pakistan.

   Insurgent commanders claimed the ISI was even officially represented, as
   participants or observers, on the Taliban supreme leadership council, he
   said. The report alleges that President Asif Ali Zardari himself had
   assured captive senior Taliban leaders that they w ere 'our people' and
   had his backing. He had apparently authorised some to be released from
   prison.

   The study drew an angry reaction from the Pakistani military. "It is a
   part of a malicious campaign against the Pakistan Army and the ISI," Army
   spokesman Major General Athar Abbas told AFP.

   "It is baseless. The sacrifices by Pakistan's army and the ISI and the
   casualties in the war on terror speak for themselves," he said. "We have a
   series of questions on the credibility of the report."

   Most interviewees explained the ISI's involvement in terms of Pakistan's
   rivalry with India, as the regional powers vie for influence ahead of the
   start of the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan next year.

   Waldman's report argues that resolving this is key to bringing Islamabad
   onside efforts to defeat the insurgency. "Without a change in Pakistani
   behaviour it will be difficult if not impossible for international forces
   and the Afghan government to make progress against the insurgency," he
   concluded.

   The ISI is accused along with the CIA of helping create the Taliban
   militia, which ruled Afghanistan between 1996 and 2001, by channelling
   funding to Afghan fighters battling the Soviet occupation in the 1980s.

   For his report, Waldman interviewed nine insurgent field commanders, three
   operating in the south of Afghanistan, three in the centre and three in
   the southeast, as well as one high-level Taliban intermediary.

   He also talked with 10 former senior Taliban officials, a number of Afghan
   elders, politicians and analysts, as well as foreign diplomats and
   security officials. A research assistant interviewed six further
   insurgents.

   Reuters adds: The research strongly suggested support for the Taliban was
   the 'official policy' of the ISI.

   Although links between the ISI and Islamist militants have been widely
   suspected for a long time, the report's findings, w hich it said were
   corroborated by two senior Western security officials, could raise more
   concerns in the West over Pakistan's commitment to help end the war in
   Afghanistan.

   The report also said President Asif Ali Zardari was reported to have
   visited senior Taliban prisoners in Pakistan earlier this year, where he
   is believed to have promi sed their release and help for militant
   operations, suggesting support for the Taliban 'is approved at the highest
   level of Pakistan's civilian government'.

   Presidential spokeswoman Farah Ispahani dismissed the allegations in the
   report as 'absolutely spurious'. She said there 'seems to be a
   concentrated effort to try to damage the new Pakistan-American strategic
   dialogue'.

   Militants were feeling the pressure, she added, because "we will rout them
   from every area of Pakistan we find them in."

   "Pakistan appears to be playing a double-game of astonishing magnitude,"
   said the report. In March 20 09, Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the US
   Joint Chiefs of Staff, and General David Petraeus, head of US Central
   Command, said they had indications elements in the ISI supported the
   Taliban and al-Qaeda and said the agency must end such activities.

   Western officials have been reluctant to talk publicly on the subject for
   fear of damaging cooperation from Pakistan. "The Pakistan government's
   apparent duplicity -- and awareness of it among the American public and
   political establishment -- could have enormous geopolitical implications,"
   said the report's author, Matt Waldman, a fellow at Harvard University.

   More than 1,800 foreign troops, including some 1,100 Americans, have died
   in Afghanistan since US-backed Afghan forces overthrew the Taliban in late
   2001. The war has already cost the United States around $300 billion and
   now costs more than $70 billion a year, the report said, citing 2009 US
   Congressional research figures.

   The report said in terviews with Taliban commanders in some of the most
   violent regions in Afghanistan 'suggest that Pakistan continues to give
   extensive support to the insurgency in terms of funding, munitions and
   supplies'.

   "These accounts were corroborated by former Taliban ministers, a Western
   analyst and a senior UN official based in Kabul, who said the Taliban
   largely depend on funding from the ISI and groups in Gulf countries," the
   report said.

   Almost all of the Taliban commanders interviewed in the report believed
   the ISI was represented on the Quetta Shura, the Taliban's supreme
   leadership council based in Pakistan.

   "Interviews strongly suggest that the ISI has representatives on the
   Quetta Shura, either as participants or observers, and the agency is thus
   involved at the highest level of the movement," the report said.

   The report also said Zardari, and a senior ISI official, allegedly visited
   some 50 senior Taliban prisoners at a secret location in Pakistan where he
   told them they had been arrested only because he was under pressure from
   the United States.

   "(This) suggests that the policy is approved at the highest level of
   Pakistan's civilian government," the report said.

   Afghanistan has also been highly critical of ISI involvement in the
   conflict in Afghanistan. Last week, the former director of Afghanistan's
   intelligence service, Amrullah Saleh, resigned saying he had become an
   obstacle to President Hamid Karzai's plans to negotiate with the
   insurgents.

   In an exclusive interview with Reuters at his home a day after he
   resigned, Saleh said the ISI was 'part of the landscape of destruction in
   this country'.

   "It will be a waste of time to provide evidence of ISI involvement. They
   are a part of it. The Pakistani army of which ISI is a part, they know
   where the Taliban leaders are -- in their safe houses," he told Reuters.

   Mushtaq Yusufzai adds from Pesh awar: The Afghan Taliban on Sunday
   rejected the report of the London School of Economics. "The report is a
   pack of lies aimed at damaging our image among the Muslims supporting
   mujahideen all over the world," said Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid.

   He called 'The News' from an undisclosed location to record the Taliban
   reaction to the LSE report. He said it was not the first time the Western
   powers and organisations had associated Taliban with the ISI.

   Zabihullah Mujahid opined that the Western powers led by the US were ready
   to defame Taliban whenever they accelerate attacks and inflict losses on
   the occupation forces in Afghanistan.

   The report even alleged that ISI officials attend meetings of the
   Taliban's supreme council and extend them financial assistance. The
   Taliban spokesman said there was no question that people other than senior
   Afghan Taliban commanders would attend their meetings.

   "Our movement is indigenous and has been launched for the liberation of
   our country from the clutches of the occupying forces," he said, adding:
   "There is no doubt we are receiving financial assistance from kind-hearted
   Muslims from across the world, but we never got any help from the ISI."

   He argued as to why the Afghan Taliban would expect any help from Pakistan
   or the ISI when Taliban fighters were arrested in Pakistan whenever they
   went there for treatment or other personal needs.

   Zabihullah Mujahid argued that the Afghan Taliban started their resistance
   against the US-led occupying forces the day their country was invaded and
   Pakistan was a key ally of coalition forces in this war.

   Also, he said, there was no chance the LSE would have interviewed Afghan
   Taliban commanders for the research report that appeared on Sunday. "If
   they are talking about former Taliban ministers, we have categorically
   stated that they are not part of our movement," the Taliban spokesm an
   said.

   He said the Taliban movement had entered the decisive phase and had forced
   the US and its allies to offer them talks. "It is our firm belief that the
   sacrifices of our Mujahideen will bear fruit one day," he said.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The News Online in English -- Website of
   a widely read, influential English daily, member of the Jang publishing
   group. Neutral editorial policy, good coverage of domestic and
   international issues. Usually offers leading news and analysis on issues
   related to war against terrorism. Circulation estimated at 55,000; URL:
   http://www.thenews.com.pk/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   68) Back to Top
   British Ene rgy Group BP Says Gulf Oil Spill Costs Reach 1.6 Billion
   Dollars
   "BP Says Gulf Oil Spill Costs Reach 1.6 Billion Dollars" -- AFP headline -
   AFP (North European Service)
   Monday June 14, 2010 06:53:18 GMT
   (Description of Source: Paris AFP in English -- North European Service of
   independent French press agency Agence France-Presse)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   69) Back to Top
   Security, Space Make Lebanese Shy Away From Couchsurfing
   "Security, Space Make Lebanese Shy Away From Couchsurfing" -- The Daily
   Star Headline - The Daily Star Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 06:52:19 GMT
   Monday, June 14, 2010

   BEIRUT: 'I haven-t always relied on the kindness of others, youknow,' says
   Chris Schaffer, a 24-year-old German who lives in SaudiArabia. 'I used to
   be a miserable cynic.'Chris is visiting Beirut as a couchsurfer, a now
   wide-spread term in thetraveling world that describes a member of
   couchsurfing.com - an onlinenetworking organization that connects
   travelers with like-minded'Hosts' - people offering spare sleeping
   surfaces -with the intention being that the traveler can stay with the
   host for free.'It-s not widespread in Lebanon though,' says Chris, who
   wasvisiting one of the very few couchsurfers in Beirut. 'I don-t
   thinkthere-s anybody here who even knows about the project ... ... It-sa
   big loss.'The idea of couchsurfing is simple: after producing an online
   profile that isthen advertised on couchsurfing.com, one applies to
   'Couchsurf,'where a 'Surf er' stays with another member in his or her
   home, or'Host,' where a member allows other travelers to stay with them,
   oradvertises himself as willing to meet for a 'coffee or drink.'The
   project, which is free to join, and only asks for a voluntary donation,
   isof infinite appeal to a vast number of travelers from Europe, the
   UnitedStates, Asia and Australasia, spurred on by the Holy Grail of
   travel: culturalintegration with locals as they seek respite and shelter
   with like-mindedpeople across the globe.'I host because its fun to meet
   new people, to know more about anotherculture and it-s a way to change the
   (daily) routine in life,' saysCharlotte Cambier, a single woman and active
   host in Beirut.'But the most annoying part of couchsurfing is not to do
   with security,it-s when my guest has no sense of humor at all.'There are
   just under 2 million couchsurfers worldwide, representing 238countries and
   73,000 cities, and to many 'fun and sun' touristscoming to Beirut this
   summer, th e prospect of high accommodation rates athotels and hostels can
   also be slightly off-putting, which leads them to lookfor cheap
   alternative shelter.'I-ve only hosted two people so far,' says Cambier,
   'aSpaniard and a couple from Japan. I love hosting people and learning
   more aboutother cultures. The only problem I find is when the person I
   host is boring orunfunny.'In Beirut, the idea appears not to have caught
   on and there are only 43 peopleadvertising a 'Maybe,' 'Yes,'
   or'Definitely' status on their profile, signalling the degree oftheir
   willingness to host, as compared with 693 in London.'The problem is that
   most people haven-t heard of the idea,'says Issa Kutkut, a first-year
   medical student at the American University ofBeirut (AUB). 'Last year I
   was the only person in AUB who met people (fora coffee or drink), and now
   I know of at least four others.'Mounir Marrash, a salesman for an
   electronics shop in Gemmayzeh, is an exampleof the local lack of
   information about couch surfing, and some of theunderstandable
   trepidation.'You let people stay in your house for free?' he asks.
   'Well,that-s normal here. I know the mentality and that would be fine for
   mostpeople I know. The only problem is security.''(The problem is) that no
   one knows about it,' he says. 'Butwe already have the idea of letting
   strangers stay with you, it-s part ofour great Lebanese hospitality - why
   shouldn-t it succeedhere?'To many people living in Beirut, the issue of
   security, as well as limitedliving space, appear as barriers to creating
   an account and hosting strangers.Naturally, Issa is a proponent of the
   idea of couchsurfing, which he said isgrowing slowly in Lebanon, but asked
   why he was personally unable to hosttravelers himself, he replied, 'I am
   living on the campus here, Ihaven-t got space to put people in my room and
   (I don-t think)I-m allowed to have guests stay.''I think that a lot of
   young people here live with their families, andmany families might not be
   so rea dy to host foreign strangers, (but I think)it-s partly because of
   issues to do with space as well,' says Issa.'I have told a lot of friends
   about my experiences, but they all look atme strangely and ask why I would
   want to meet strangers at all?' he adds,shrugging his shoulders.Murray
   Wilson, a 22-year old student from Leeds, England, who is living
   andhosting in Amman, disagrees.'Of course people are strangers when they
   arrive,' Wilson says.'But I have met some of the best people in the world
   on couchsurfing andyou become friends fast, having lived together.'Users
   should still be cautious however, in August 2009, a 29-year-old womanfrom
   Hong Kong was raped while using couchsurfing in Leeds, highlighting
   therisks that some users face when staying with strangers.To counter this
   obvious problem of security, couchsurfing.org offers areference system
   that works to eliminate abusers and reward positive members,whereby both
   the host and the couchsurfer leave references for each oth er,whether
   positive, negative or neutral, so that future hosts can make
   betterjudgments of character.'I-m not going to let a murderer or thief
   into my house,obviously,' says Murray. 'But I do feel that couchsurfing
   hasreasserted my faith in mankind.''If I see that someone has no
   references or even negative references thenI will reply and tell them that
   my couch isn-t available,' he says,while making tea for three new surfers
   that he was visiting in the Beirutdistrict of Ashrafiyeh. 'After all, why
   would anybody go to the bother ofmaking 10 good references just so that he
   can go and murder the 11th person?That doesn-t make sense.''If, after all
   the security that is provided, the person steals fromme,' he adds,
   smiling, 'I (usually) take his passport number whenhe arrives, so all I
   have to do is notify the police that somebody has stolenmy shower gel and
   the problem is solved.''Not that any one has ever stolen my gel, however,'
   he says.'But imagine the reference I-d leave if t hey had.'Couchsurfing is
   not only for students and the young, as according to officialstatistics
   posted on the website, members age up to 80 years of age, withgroups
   available pertaining to every age group, although the average ageremains
   28.'I never used to be so trusting, or even trustworthy,' Chris
   says,proffering a cigarette and smiling to himself. 'But then I never used
   tosmoke either, I guess people can be changed.'(Description of Source:
   Beirut The Daily Star Online in English -- Website of the independent
   daily, The Daily Star; URL: http://dailystar.com.lb)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   70) Back to Top
   Xinhua 'Roundup' on UNSC Resolution 1929 Imposing New Sanctions on Ir an
   "International Observation" roundup by foreign-based reporters Wang
   Xiangjiang, Gu Zhenqiu, Bai Jie, Du Yuanjiang, and He Guanghai: "The
   Iranian Nuclear Issue: the meaning of the New Resolution on Sanctions" -
   Xinhua Domestic Service
   Monday June 14, 2010 05:10:05 GMT
   (Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua Domestic Service in Chinese --
   China's official news service (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   71) Back to Top
   British Foreign Secretary Urges Iran To Heed UN Sanctions, Engage in
   Dialogue
   Article by British Foreign Secretary William Hague: "A Message That the
   Iranian Government Should Not Ignore" - Al-Sharq al-Awsat Online
   Sunday June 13, 2010 23:57:56 GMT
   The Iranian Government often blames its woes on Britain and the outside
   world. This should not fool anyone. The British Government would like a
   constructive relationship with Iran, an important country with a long and
   proud history and a dynamic and youthful population. It helps none of us
   that Iran is excluded by its own actions from consultation on issues that
   affect it and the region, and that matter to us in Britain too. Neither
   does it serve the interests of millions of young Iranians who find
   themselves left behind on the international stage, unable to use their
   energy and skills to their full potential or to enjoy the rights and
   freedoms that all peoples are entitled to. President Ahmadinejad's
   response to the UN sanctions has been predictable. By like ning the
   sanctions to a "used handkerchief, fit only for the rubbish bin" he may
   have made the news, but he is evading the key issue for his Government:
   These sanctions will have a real impact on its economic situation. His
   calls on Iran to reconsider its ties with the IAEA will only reinforce the
   sense of an Iran that is isolated from normal international relations.
   This isolation is entirely of the Iranian Government's own making. Over
   the past year it has continued to enrich uranium. It defied UN resolutions
   and accumulated a stockpile of enriched uranium sufficient to build a
   nuclear weapon over time. The Iranian Government has done nothing in the
   past few months that alters these facts. While we welcome the recent
   efforts to secure an agreement to supply the Iranian research reactor with
   fuel (an agreement that Iran turned down in the past), this agreement
   never addressed the wider concerns over its program. Tehran knew that new
   sanctions would follow if it di d not comply with United Nations
   resolutions. Anything that it says contrary to the above is a distortion
   of the truth.

   The Iranian Government claims that its nuclear program is peaceful. But it
   cannot explain why the military arm of the state is heavily involved in
   that program, or why it insists on enriching uranium when it has no power
   stations that need such fuel. Its history of deception and secrecy
   regarding its nuclear program inevitably leads other countries to believe
   that its intention is a nuclear weapons capability.

   Tehran's actions risk a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. These
   actions gravely undermine the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) at a
   time when the international community has just renewed its commitment to a
   world free of nuclear weapons. This is why international action is so
   urgent and why as a new Government we pressed for UN sanctions this week.
   We will resolutely demand strong additional measures by the European Union
   again st Iran in the coming months, as well as close cooperation with our
   partners in the region. Reinforcing UN sanctions will be an important test
   of European resolve and a positive example of how the European Union's
   collective political and economic weight in the world could be harnessed
   to telling effect. Some seek to reduce this crisis to a clash between Iran
   on one side and the US, Israel, and their allies on the other. The Iranian
   Government seeks to portray itself as the champion of the developing world
   against an imperious and uncaring West. Nothing could be farther from the
   truth. Mexico, Nigeria, and Uganda were among the countries that voted in
   favor of new UN sanctions. This fact exposes Iran's propaganda for what it
   truly is. Iran's actions on the nuclear front undermine the position of
   non-nuclear weapons states that respect resolutions. Moreover, its
   posturing in the Middle East unacceptably undermines those working to
   support the peace process.

   We are seek ing a long-term solution through diplomacy and negotiations.
   That is why we continue to urge the Iranians to come to the table and
   discuss their nuclear program. The pressure on Iran to engage will only
   grow over time. This is a message that the Iranian Government should not
   ignore. As well as sanctions, the costs to Iran of its deliberate defiance
   are already high. Its oil production is declining because of lack of
   investment from international companies. Its economy is in a miserable
   shape, adding lack of opportunity to the political repression endured by
   its population, which is prominent in everyone's minds this weekend. These
   factors only underline the case for Iran altering course. Iran can have a
   far better relationship with the outside world. The international
   community would respond overnight to any change of direction by the
   Iranian Government, if it took meaningful steps to restore confidence that
   its intentions are serious. Britain and its partners remain ready t o meet
   Iranian negotiators at any time for meaningful discussions on their
   nuclear program. Iran has been offered a package of incentives that would
   lead to the lifting of sanctions and provide trade benefits, dialogue on
   key international issues and, importantly, co-operation on the civil
   nuclear power that Iran claims is its goal. It is a powerful and important
   offer, made in good faith and one that the new British Government has
   reaffirmed.

   We call upon the Iranian Government to carefully consider this offer for
   what it is -- a genuine attempt to change the relationship between our
   governments and present a path forward that can dissipate all of our
   concerns. The tactic of simply refusing to negotiate over its nuclear
   program will not work and will not weaken our resolve.

   (Description of Source: London Al-Sharq al-Awsat Online in Arabic --
   Website of influential London-based pan-Arab Saudi daily; editorial line
   reflects Saudi official stance. URL: http://www .asharqalawsat.com/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   72) Back to Top
   Afghan state TV reports Karzai's meeting with new British PM - National TV
   Afghanistan
   Saturday May 15, 2010 17:53:11 GMT
   Text of report by state-owned National Afghanistan TV on 15 MayThe
   president of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, Hamed Karzai and the
   British prime minister, David Cameron, today met at the prime minister's
   residence in London. Cameron renewed Britain's strong commitments to
   Afghanistan and vowed to continue his cooperation with the people of
   Afghanistan in various fields. The two leaders talked about the success of
   President Karzai's visit to Washington and stressed the need to strengthen
   relations between the two countries in various fields. They also discussed
   the upcoming National Consultative Peace Jerga, due to be convened in
   Kabul on 8 Ghbarghola (29 May).Meanwhile, the Afghan president and the
   British prime minister agreed to strengthen and expand relations between
   Kabul and London.Karzai congratulated Cameron on his election as the
   British prime minister and praised the UK for its cooperation with the
   Afghan nation over the past few years.He also praised the British
   soldiers' efforts in Afghanistan in the fight against terrorism.It is
   worth mentioning that after his election, it was the first meeting of the
   new UK prime minister with a foreign leader. Afghanistan is top on the
   foreign policy agenda of the British government led by David
   Cameron.(Description of Source: Kabul National TV Afghanistan in Pashto --
   state-run television)

   Material in the World N ews Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   73) Back to Top
   Northern Central America Press 12-14 Jun 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Central America -- OSC Summary
   Monday June 14, 2010 20:01:27 GMT
   -- San Salvador Diario Co Latino.com on 12 June reports that Foreign
   Minister Hugo Martinez was satisfied by the commitment shown by
   multilateral organizations and the Central American governments and civil
   society groups during the First Central American Forum on Migration and
   Development held in El Salvador from 9 to 10 June. Participants agreed to
   promote regional efforts to benefit migrants including teaching basic
   financial skills, reinsertion programs for those deported, and temporary
   worker programs. There was also a strong commitment to defend migrants'
   human and labor rights. The proposals would be divulged during the II
   Ibero-American Forum On Migration and Development also to be held in El
   Salvador from 22 to 23 July. Martinez was also pleased by the fact that El
   Salvador was chosen to host the next OAS General Assembly and regarding
   Honduras' return to the regional body he explained that the Salvadoran
   Government views as "indispensable" the full reestablishment of democracy
   and human rights in Honduras and that the "best course to commit Honduras
   to this goal is to promote its reincorporation to this forum." Meanwhile,
   the Norwegian and Salvadoran foreign ministries agreed to establish a
   cooperation agenda and create a mechanism for consultations on bilateral
   issues. (San Salvador Diario Co Latino.com in Spanish - Website of
   left-of-center daily published exclusively in San Salvador;
   Editor-in-chief Miguel Pinto, Critical of the National Republican
   Alliance; Circulation 10,000; URL:

   http://www.diariocolatino.com http://www.diariocolatino.com ) GUATEMALA
   Presidency Weakened By Crisis Over Cicig Director's Resignation

   -- Guatemala City Prensa Libre.com on 12 June reports that analysts
   coincided that the resignation of Carlos Castresana, head of the
   International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (Cicig), and the
   subsequent exit of Prosecutor General Conrado Reyes weakened President
   Alvaro Colom. The analysts noted that Colom failed to show leadership
   during the crisis and reminded that Reyes had been appointed by Colom. The
   crisis also reveals that Colom lacks an advisory team with the proper
   legal and political experience. Nobel Peace Prize recipient Rigoberta
   Menchu said that Colom "decided not to be a leader" and that the president
   "chose inaction" and left to others the task of resolving the crisis "he
   himself had provoked." Analysts opined that the lessons learned during the
   crisis include eliminating external influences over the nominating process
   for public officials, the need for civil society groups to oversee these
   processes, and that the Judicial Branch must allocate more resources for
   the court system. (Guatemala City Prensa Libre.com in Spanish -- Website
   of independent highest circulation daily; Editor-in-Chief Gonzalo
   Marroquin Godoy URL:

   http://www.prensalibre.com http://www.prensalibre.com ) President Offers
   Continued Support For Cicig

   -- Guatemala City Prensa Libre.com on 12 June reports that President
   Alvaro Colom promised to continue to support the International Commission
   Against Impunity in Guatemala (Cicig) and said each branch of government
   would have specific responsibilities in backing the Cicig as well as
   seeking to expand and extend the commission's manda te. "Definitively we
   must make a revision of the agreement with the United Nations," Colom
   stated adding he would meet with the heads of the legislature and
   judiciary to prepare an agenda with specific goals that could include
   approving new legislation and building a maximum security prison. The
   president revealed that he would have dismissed Prosecutor General Conrado
   Reyes if the Consti tutionality Court had not annulled the process through
   which Reyes was elected. Colom noted that the appointment by Reyes of Juan
   Roberto Garrido as head of security at the Public Prosecutor's Office was
   a mistake because Garrido has ties to Carlos Quintanilla. "That man
   Garrido did not do anything right," Colom stated and said that civil
   society groups and the international community were justified in rejecting
   his appointment. He also offered to meet with all sectors to guarantee
   that the next prosecutor general is chosen in a transparent manner.
   President Colom Propos es Tax To Finance Reconstruction

   -- Guatemala City Prensa Libre.com on 13 June reports that President
   Alvaro Colom announced that he would ask lawmakers to approve a fiscal
   reform that includes new taxes to finance reconstruction projects. Colom
   said that over 2 billion quetzals ($249.7 million) are needed for
   reconstruction, although the damage is still being quantified. The
   president said that 500 million quetzals ($62.4 million) had already been
   spent on relief efforts and commented the additional revenues could be
   raised through a tax on financial transactions, such as bank deposits.
   Illegal Telephone Wiretapping Reportedly A Common Practice

   -- Guatemala City Prensa Libre.com on 14 June reports that politicians and
   social and business leaders suspect that illegal telephone wiretaps have
   become a common practice and are carried out by organized crime and
   political institutions. Government Minister Carlos Menocal acknowledged
   "it is a fact that individua ls and groups perform telephone wiretaps
   outside the established legal methods." Patriot Party lawmaker Roxana
   Baldetti said she would soon reveal the name of a government agency that
   was carrying out surveillance on journalists and politicians. Meanwhile,
   lawmaker Nineth Montenegro reminded that years ago the Presidential
   General Staff acquired sophisticated eavesdropping equipment, but its
   current location is unknown. The appointment by former Prosecutor General
   Conrado Reyes of individuals linked to Carlos Quintanilla, the disgraced
   former head of the Administrative Affairs and Security Secretariat, to
   positions within the Public Prosecutor's Office Special Methods Unit,
   which includes the Communications Monitoring Center, only served to
   exacerbate fears that the use of illegal electronic eavesdropping was
   spreading. Daily Sees Rise In Xenophobia Among US Citizens

   -- Guatemala City Sigloxxi.com on 13 June publishes an editorial asserting
   that Hispanics in the United States are increasingly becoming the target
   of violent xenophobic attacks. It maintains that since Arizona enacted a
   law criminalizing immigrants "acts of violence against foreign citizens
   have increased," several at the hands of law enforcement officials, and
   warns that abuse and even torture against Hispanics is rising. The daily
   notes that the Hispanic contribution to the United States is very valuable
   and helps to power the US economy and insists that it is unfair for an
   individual to suffer discrimination because of their race or skin color.
   The growing intolerance in the United States will only cause "more
   violence and unnecessary confrontations," which could be avoided by
   eradicating the feelings of xenophobia that exist in several US
   communities. (Guatemala City Sigloxxi.com in Spanish -- Website of
   business-oriented daily published by Corporacion de Noticias; URL:

   http://www.sigloxxi.com/ http://www.sigloxxi.com/ ) HONDURAS Presiden t
   Lobo In South Africa To Watch World Cup

   -- Tegucigalpa La Tribuna Online on 12 June reports that during a press
   conference President Porfirio Lobo Sosa confirmed that he would be in
   South Africa to watch the national soccer team's matches at the World Cup.
   Lobo Sosa said that "the people" would be running the country in his
   absence and explained that the presidential designates were reluctant to
   assume the responsibility because it would disqualify them from a future
   run for president. Regarding an alleged plot to oust him from power Lobo
   Sosa asserted that he explained to representatives from the international
   community that sometimes individuals speculate about possible scenarios,
   but that these ideas usually only remain in the minds of their originators
   and never become concrete actions. However, the president stated that his
   claims of a possible coup are valid and that he would not make jokes about
   such an issue. He declined to identify those responsib le for the threats,
   but said that they included business owners and members of the Liberal and
   National parties, but no military officials. (Tegucigalpa La Tribuna
   Online in Spanish -- Website of centrist daily owned by the family of
   Carlos Flores, a former Honduran president from the Liberal Party who
   continues to wield significant political influence; URL:

   http://www.latribuna.hn www.latribuna.hn ) Two Presidential Designates
   Heading Administration

   -- Tegucigalpa La Tribuna Online on 14 June reports that presidential
   designates Maria Antonieta Guillen de Bogran and Victor Hugo Barnica will
   share the responsibilities of the presidency while President Porfirio Lobo
   Sosa is in South Africa to watch the World Cup soccer matches. Guillen
   explained that since Lobo would be absent for less than 15 days the
   presidency's duties would be handled by her and Barnica. Lobo Sosa is
   expected to return on 22 June. Prosecutor General To Meet With President
   Lobo Over Coup Alle gations

   -- San Pedro Sula Tiempo.hn on 12 June reports that Prosecutor General
   Luis Alberto Rubi said that he would ask President Porfirio Lobo Sosa to
   provide evidence to back claims that groups are plotting a coup d'etat.
   Rubi explained that he would order an investigation only after meeting
   with the president instead of automatically opening an inquiry. The
   prosecutor general also commented on a communique by the G-16 group of
   cooperating nations asking for an investigation into continued human
   rights violations. He said the communique expresses the concerns of the
   foreign representatives, but that "What is important is that these
   concerns do not have the intention of wanting to interfere in some of the
   authorities." (San Pedro Sula Tiempo.hn in Spanish -- Website of
   center-left daily owned by Grupo Continental; URL:

   http://www.tiempo.hn www.tiempo.hn ) Robberies, Homicides Most Common
   Crimes

   -- San Pedro Sula Tiempo.hn on 13 June reports t hat data from the Supreme
   Court reveals that robbery is the most common crime with 3,456 incidents
   followed by homicides with 2,812. The data covers information obtained
   from the inmate population for the years 2007 through 2009. During that
   time there were also 1,990 drug trafficking cases, 1,669 cases involving
   rape, 1,484 for illegal possession of a firearm, 1,109 for illicit
   association, 686 cases of domestic violence, and 467 firearm thefts. Daily
   Asserts Government Falling Into Disarray

   -- San Pedro Sula Tiempo.hn on 14 June publishes an editorial remarking on
   the latest statements by President Porfirio Lobo Sosa regarding alleged
   plots to oust him from power. It notes that Lobo Sosa accepted the term
   "tutti-frutti" to describe the varied makeup of those seeking to remove
   him from office. The editorial concludes that this latest round of
   speculation and rumors of a coup indicates that the government has fallen
   into political volatility and disorder and notes that the Public
   Prosecutor's Office refuses to open an investigation into the alleged plot
   arguing that the president must first provide evidence to justify an
   inquiry. The concerns are exacerbated when Lobo Sosa and several important
   officials travel to the World Cup tournament leaving the country in the
   middle of a crisis of uncertainty since Lobo Sosa stated "the people" will
   be in charge instead of the presidential designates. However, this
   attitude reveals that since last year's coup the re al control of the
   country is not in the hands of the government, but is with groups seeking
   the militarization of the public and political power in Honduras.

   The following media were scanned and no file worthy items were noted:

   San Salvador La Prensa Grafica.com

   San Salvador fmln.org.sv

   San Salvador Ministry of Foreign Relations of the Republic of El Salvador

   Guatemala City Alvaro Colom Government

   Tegucigalpa Presidency of th e Republic of Honduras

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
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   74) Back to Top
   2 US-Bound Guatemalan Soldiers Carrying Heroin Arrested
   "Salvadoran Cops Arrest 2 Guatemalan Soldiers With Heroin Bound for US" --
   EFE headline - EFE
   Monday June 14, 2010 14:47:09 GMT
   The shipment, valued at $72,000, was discovered Friday (11 June) night in
   the military boots that Lieutenants Juan Jose Pineda Vasquez and Genaro
   Pineda Rojas were carrying in their luggage, the head of the Attorney
   General's Office's anti-drug unit, Jorge Cortez, told El Diaro de Hoy.

   He said that the two men had managed to insert a total of 154 capsules of
   heroin into the soles of the jungle boots, which are part of their
   standard military equipment, and they had covered them with socks.

   The press report said that the two men had entered El Salvador by land,
   but appeared nervous as they waited to catch a flight to the United States
   at El Salvador, or Comalapa, international airport.

   "We've had foreigners who entered the country by land, but then tried to
   leave by air.In this case, the new thing is that members of the Guatemalan
   Army are involved in international drug trafficking," Cortez told the
   daily.

   Authorities said that it is not known whether the final destination of the
   drug was New York or whether it would have been shipped on to Europe.

   The daily cited figures provided by the National Civil Police, or PNC,
   indicating that in the first year of President Mauricio Funes's
   administration, authorities have seized 1,178 kg of drugs valued at an
   estimated $12 million.

   (Description of Source: Madrid EFE in English -- independent Spanish press
   agency)

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   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   75) Back to Top
   Talk Of The Day -- Ecfa Effect: Volkswagen To Set Up Plant Here?
   By Sofia Wu - Central News Agency
   Tuesday June 15, 2010 03:50:41 GMT
   Premier Wu Den-yih revealed on CtiTV Monday that a senior executive of
   Volkswagen, the world's largest automaker, met with him last week for a
   second time on the company's plans to set up a plant in Taiwan.

   According to Wu, the automaker's investment pl an is indicative of the
   positive effect of a proposed cross-Taiwan Strait economic cooperation
   framework agreement (ECFA) , which will bring tariff reductions or
   exemptions to some Taiwan-made exports to China.Unlike domestic ECFA
   opponents, Wu said, many business people from Japan, the United States,
   Europe and even Taiwanese businessmen operating in China look forward to
   an early striking of the ECFA deal.The ECFA benefits, coupled with the
   reduction of the corporate income tax rate to 17 percent under the
   Industrial Innovation Act, have lifted Taiwan's competitiveness to a
   world-class level, Wu said.The following are excerpts from the local media
   coverage of the issue: United Daily News: Industry sources said the
   company mentioned by Wu is assessing the feasibility of launching an
   investment project in Taiwan and that its consultations with the
   government are entering a final stage but have yet to come to a
   conclusion.According to data available in the industry, Germany's
   Volkswagen replaced Japan's Toyota as the world's No. 1 automaker last
   year after it acquired Porsche Co.Wu disclosed Monday that representatives
   from the company will tour a local industrial park next week to further
   gauge the feasibility of establishing an assembly plant for vehicle
   modules in Taiwan for sale to the U.S. and Southeast Asian countries.The
   premier said the company's executive has told him that made-in-Taiwan
   products are more attractive than made-in-China ones.In addition to
   manufacturing prowess and management expertise, Wu said Taiwan's
   democratic system and rule of law are also its strengths in attracting
   foreign investors. Once the ECFA is signed, Taiwan's competitiveness will
   be further enhanced, he added. (June 15, 2010).Commercial Times:
   Industrial Development Bureau Director-General Woody Duh will accompany
   Volkswagen executives to tour the Changhua Coastal Industrial Park in
   central Taiwan next week to study whether to set up a new auto assembly pl
   ant there.Swire Group reportedly has invited Volkswagen to launch a joint
   venture in Taiwan to produce compact cars for sale to China, as assembled
   cars are likely to be included in ECFA's "early harvest" list in the
   future.Volkswagen has asked Volkswagen China Co., a Shanghai-based
   Germany-China joint venture auto company, to study the Swire
   Group-proposed Taiwan investment plan, a company manager said.The group
   will take into consideration the market situation in Taiwan, China and
   Southeast Asia in deciding whether to set up a production base in
   Taiwan."We will not just focus on the ECFA tariff benefit in deciding the
   fate of the new investment project. The key lies in whether a division of
   labor can be created between the Taiwan plant and those in Southeast Asian
   nations," the Volkswagen China Co. official said.According to his
   estimate, the Taiwan plant should be able to churn out at least 100,000
   cars a year to reach a scale of economy, a capacity th at requires a
   capital infusion of NT$3 billion to NT$5 billion. (June 15, 2010).Economic
   Daily News: Swire Group, Volkswagen's Taiwan sales agent, declined to make
   any comments on the report about Volkswagen's investment plant.As
   assembled cars will not be included in the "early harvest" list for tariff
   exemptions, it deserves close observation whether the German automaker
   will change its mind.An IDB official said Volkswagen's German headquarters
   will send executives to tour the Changhua industrial park next week. If
   the company approves the investment project, the construction of its
   Taiwan plant will get underway late this year.Duh said the IDB will assist
   the company in launching its investment project in Taiwan and will ask it
   to procure as many Taiwan-made auto parts and components as possible. Once
   assembled cars are included in the "early harvest" list in the future, its
   cars will be qualified for tariff exemption privileges, he
   added.Industrial so urces said that while the assembly plant may only
   require a capital investment of NT$1 billion, it could create positive
   momentum for the country by signaling foreign investors' confidence in
   Taiwan's economic prospects with improvements in cross-strait
   ties.According to the sources, Volkswagen's potential Taiwan facility
   would be targeted at both the Southeast Asia and South Asia markets, where
   4 million to 5 million cars are sold a year. (June 15, 2010).(Description
   of Source: Taipei Central News Agency in English -- "Central News Agency
   (CNA)," Taiwan's major state-run press agency; generally favors ruling
   administration in its coverage of domestic and international affairs; URL:
   http://www.cna.com.tw)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   76) Back to Top
   The Buck Should Stop With Lee
   "Viewpoint" column by Kim Jin, an editorial writer and Translation by the
   JoongAng Daily staff: "The Buck Should Stop With Lee" - JoongAng Daily
   Online
   Tuesday June 15, 2010 01:10:33 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul JoongAng Daily Online in English -- Website
   of English-language daily which provides English-language summaries and
   full-texts of items published by the major center-right daily JoongAng
   Ilbo, as well as unique reportage; distributed as an insert to the Seoul
   edition of the International Herald Tribune; URL:
   http://joongangdaily.joins.com)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   77) Back to Top
   Local Tensions Keep Lid on Nation's Credit Rating - JoongAng Daily Online
   Tuesday June 15, 2010 00:58:16 GMT
   (JOONGANG ILBO) - Korea's credit rating has stayed relatively low compared
   to the world's leading economies due to exposure to geopolitical risks,
   the government said yesterday, underlining the need to more accurately
   explain its economic conditions to appraisal agencies.

   According to the Ministry of Strategy and Finance, Korea ranked 10th or
   11th among the Group of 20 industrial and emerging countries in terms of
   sovereign credit levels as of the end of May. Among the 31 countries that
   are members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
   Korea came in 22nd or 23rd.The rankings vary slightly, as the three majo r
   credit ratings agencies differ in their rating of Asia's fourth-largest
   economy, the ministry said. Standard &amp;amp; Poor's put Korea in the
   sixth-highest rating level of A, while Moody's and Fitch give the nation
   A1 and A-plus, the fifth-highest level in their rating systems.Among the
   G-20 countries, the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Australia and
   Canada hold the highest credit ratings, while Japan and Italy came next.
   Korea and China were on the same level in terms of credit
   ratings.(Description of Source: Seoul JoongAng Daily Online in English --
   Website of English-language daily which provides English-language
   summaries and full-texts of items published by the major center-right
   daily JoongAng Ilbo, as well as unique reportage; distributed as an insert
   to the Seoul edition of the International Herald Tribune; URL:
   http://joongangdaily.joins.com)

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   source cited. Permission for use mu st be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   78) Back to Top
   Lawmaker Calls For Castration of Pedophiles - The Korea Times Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 14:50:57 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul The Korea Times Online in English -- Website
   of The Korea Times, an independent and moderate English-language daily
   published by its sister daily Hanguk Ilbo from which it often draws
   articles and translates into English for publication; URL:
   http://www.koreatimes.co.kr)

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   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   79) Back to Top
   Three Die in Mogadishu Explosion
   Xinhua: "Three Die in Mogadishu Explosion" - Xinhua
   Monday June 14, 2010 18:52:14 GMT
   MOGADISHU, June 14 (Xinhua) -- At least three people were killed and
   almost eight others were injured on Sunday in an explosion in the south of
   the Somali capital Mogadishu, witnesses said.

   The blast thought to be a roadside bomb explosion occurred as fuel tanker
   passed the area where Somali government troops were patrolling but none of
   the soldiers were hurt."The bomb went off and three people very close to
   the place died on the spot and the wounded were rushed to the hospital.
   They were eight," Omar Elmi, an eyewitness, told Xinhua.No group has so
   far claimed responsibility for the attack but Islamist rebels are known to
   target Somali government forces and African Union peacekeepers based in
   Mogadishu.Separately the pro-government militia group, the Ahlu Sunnah
   Waljama (ASWJ) announced the appointment of a senior commander for their
   forces that have been battling with Islamist rebel movements of Hezbul
   Islam and Al Shabaab.The ASWJ controls a number of important towns in the
   central Somali regions of Galgaduud and Mudug while the group's fighters
   have been fighting alongside Somali government forces in parts of the
   capital Mogadishu where the Somali government controls.Meanwhile the
   leader of Hezbulk Islam, Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys reiterated his group's
   resolve to continue fighting the Somali government and African Union
   peacekeepers as long as there was what he termed foreign involvement in
   Somali problems.He accused neighboring Ethiopian and the United States of
   interfering in the internal affairs of the war torn east African
   country.The Islamist leader said in a rare news conference in the
   Mogadishu that the ban his group imposed on a Britain-based Somali
   language TV channel stands and that an apology by the station would not be
   accepted.The Islamist groups of Hezbul Islam and Al Shabaab banned the
   Universal TV station from operating in Somalia after they accused it of
   airing controversial cartoons depicting the Prophet Mohamed early in the
   month.The TV station has repeated apologized for what it said was a
   mistake and pledged it will never repeat the airing of the cartoons adding
   that the reporter and editor responsible for the story were "laid
   off".(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official
   news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   80) Back to Top&lt; /a&gt;
   Magazine Alleges Signing of 'Confidential' Agreement Over Transition
   Unattributed report from 'Confidential Reports' section: "The Rabat
   Declaration" - Jeune Afrique
   Tuesday June 15, 2010 04:22:02 GMT
   Concluded on 5 January between General Sekouba Konate on the one hand and
   the adviser for Africa at the Elysee (French Presidency), Andre Parant,
   and his counterpart at the U.S. State Department, Johnnie Carson, on the
   other hand, all under Moroccan supervision, this "Rabat Declaration aimed
   at promoting peace and a democratic transition in the Republic of Guinea."
   The document includes four important points.

   In this document, General Konate pledged to "personally assume
   responsibility" for the transition which will lead "to democratic, free,
   and transparent elections as quickly as possible.&amp;q uot;

   In order to "forestall any risk of violence" during this period, the
   future president promises "to ban the return of Captain Dadis Camara to
   Guinea."

   Finally, Sekouba Konate gave assurance that he will facilitate legal
   actions against "any person found guilty of abuse of power or acts of
   violence."

   In return, the French and the U.S. sides pledged to provide their
   technical, material, and financial assistance "during and after the
   transition period" to the process. They also pledged to "mobilize the
   support of the international community," with Morocco playing the role of
   coordinator.

   (Description of Source: Paris Jeune Afrique in French -- Privately owned,
   independent weekly magazine)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   81) Back to Top
   Palestinian Reports on Infrastructure Projects 5-11 Jun 10
   The following lists highlights of reprots on infrastructure projects
   carried in the Palestinian media between 5 and 11 June. To request
   additional processing, or for assistance with multimedia elements, call
   OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735. - West Bank
   &amp;amp; Gaza Strip -- OSC Summary in Arabic 05-11 Jun 10
   Monday June 14, 2010 19:07:25 GMT
   http://www.wafa.ps/ http://www.wafa.ps ) Ramallah: Agreement To Support
   Projects in Nine Villages Signed

   -- A 7 June report says that an agreement was signed today to support a
   number of structural projects between Sami Yusif, chief of the Papist
   mission in the Palestinian territories, and nine municipal councils in t
   he governorates.The report adds that cost of these projects is $170,000.
   Ramallah: Agreement Signed To Implement Phase II of Health Facilities
   Development Project

   -- An 8 June report says that the Ministry of Higher Education signed
   today a business agreement with the Palestinian branch of the Islamic
   Trans-World Relief Organization to start phase II of a health facilities
   development project in three directorates in the northern governorates.The
   report adds that agreement signed at the ministry's headquarters in
   Ramallah aims at developing the school environment facilities and provides
   the appropriate conditions for the students at a cost of $70,000. Hebron:
   Al-Qawasimi Opens Main Street, Tafuh Municipality Premises

   -- An 8 June report cites Local Governance Minister Khalid al-Qawasimi as
   saying that projects implemented in Tafuh town are the result of
   cooperation of the people and institutions that are keen on providing the
   necessary services to citizens and to develop all sectors. Hebron:
   Education Ministry Receives Yatta Martyrs Elementary School Building

   -- On 10 June the Ministry of Higher Education took possession of the
   building of Yatta Martyrs' Elementary Girl's School affiliated to the
   Education Directorate in southern Hebron with funding from the Arab
   Monetary Fund.The report adds that the school was built on an area of
   2,354 square meters.There are 15 classrooms, two rooms for teachers, a
   computer lab, and other facilities, at a cost of $985,660. Janin: Project
   To Install Lighting in Teacher, Staff Housing Opened

   -- On 10 June a report says that Dr. Umar Katanah, chief of the Energy and
   Natural Resources Authority, began installing lighting in the teacher's
   association housing and the Ministry of Education staff building in Janin
   Governorate.He added that an electric power generation plant will also be
   built in the governorate to provide power to the northern West Bank and
   offer job opportunities. Al-Hay at Al-Jadidah Ramallah: Public Works
   Ministry Announces Vital Road in Jericho Repaired

   -- A 7 June report says that the Ministry of Housing and Public Works has
   announced the completion of road repair on the road connecting the
   Intercontinental Hotel in Jericho with the city center, with funding from
   the USAID.The report adds that length of road is 2.6 kilometers and cost
   of $1.07 million. (Ramallah Al-Hayah al-Jadidah (Electronic Edition) in
   Arabic -- PA-owned daily, supportive of the Presidency; URL:

   http://www.alhayat-j.com/ http://www.alhayat-j.com ) Ramallah: BETA,
   French Development Agency Launch Project to Empower IT Sector in Gaza

   -- An 8 June reports cites AFD Director Herfi Konan as announcing the
   "EnTeg" project in Gaza.The report adds that project was announced during
   Palestine's Investment Forum recently held in Bethlehem.The report adds
   that the 500,000 euros provided by the AFD is being used by Palestinian
   Information System Unio n of Companies "BETA" in cooperation with the
   Palestinian Trade Center, "Pal-Trade."

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   Commerce.

   82) Back to Top
   Czech Jun 14 Press Views Slovak Election Result
   "Czech Press Survey" -- Czech Happenings headline - Czech Happenings
   Monday June 14, 2010 09:37:42 GMT
   Smer-SD, which the Slovak right camp says should not be asked to form a
   government (as it has no ally to side with), is therefore in a situation
   different from that of the Czech Social Democrats (CSSD (Czech Social
   Democratic Party)), who won the Czech elections only narrowly in late May,
   Uhl points out.

   He says the ousting of Vladimir Meciar's Movement for a Democratic
   Slovakia (LS-HZDS) from parliament alone is the victory of Slovaks. Meciar
   has been playing on everybody's nerves for almost 20 years. The rightist
   camps in Slovakia and the Czech Republic have made a scarecrow of him.
   Nevertherless, he was not a democratic man and was burdened with financial
   scandals.

   That is why it is good that his HZDS has left the Slovak parliament, Uhl
   writes.

   On the other hand, it is not good that parliament has been narrowly
   entered by Jan Slota's Slovak National Party (SNS), another junior
   government party that Fico has repeatedly yielded to, Uhl writes.

   It will be difficult for the four "right-wing" parties which have a
   four-vote majority in parliament to form a government, also because two of
   them are not actually rightist and can hardly reach agreement on a joint
   programme, Uhl writes.

   They are the Freedom and Solid arity, reminiscent of a private business
   project, and the moderate Hungarian-Slovak Most-Hid, an efficient medicine
   against both Slota and the Great-Hungary rhetoric of Hungarian PM Viktor
   Orban, Uhl writes.

   Either Fico will form a government with the two above mentioned parties or
   an unviable conglomerate will emerge and disintegrate soon afterwards, Uhl
   concludes.

   Slovak PM and Smer-SD leader Robert Fico, like his former Czech Social
   Democrat (CSSD) counterpart Jiri Paroubek, behaved in a way that gradually
   narrowed their coalition potential. They each have eliminated their
   possible partners by themselves, Viliam Buchert writes in Mlada fronta
   Dnes.

   They failed to recognise that in the period of the economic crisis people
   want to know ways out of the economic trouble rather than hear parties
   promise more money to them, Buchert writes.

   Neither Paroubek nor Fico managed to win support of young voters who
   rejected the arrogance of both. The problem does not rest in a generation
   gap, as in the Czech Republic young people massively supported 72-year-old
   Karel Schwarzenberg (TOP 09 (Tradition, Responsibility, Prosperity 09)).
   The problem rests in a clash of ideas.

   Moreover, the young generation resents being taught lessons and hates
   propaganda reminiscent of the communist regime. Both Paroubek and Fico did
   "outstandingly" in this area, Buchert writes with irony.

   They waged a nonsensical war against the media that could not be won.
   Instead of assessing reality by themselves they relied on public opinion
   polls. True, marketing and a bombastic campaigns can work for a while, but
   sooner or later people find out that politics can be done moderately,
   calmly, openly and prudently, and without conflicts with the media,
   Buchert says.

   Paroubek and Fico did not understand this, nor did former German
   Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder understand it a few years ago. French
   President Nicolas Sarkozy does not u nderstand this either and his
   popularity in on the decline. The same applies to U.S. President Barack
   Obama who often fails to transform his solemn vows into effective deeds.
   The Americans have started realising this only recently, Buchert writes.

   Slovak PM Robert Fico's party has gained its 35 percent of election vote
   from a strange conglomerate of voters, including low income and decent
   Slovaks who have not unveiled Fico's real nature and who have no one to
   support on the left, but also xenophobes and nationalists pleased by
   Fico's neo-Nazi-tinged election posters that scared with the Hungarian
   threat, Lubos Palata writes in Lidove noviny.

   Furthermore, Fico's electorate includes populists and orphans of communism
   who delight in his totalitarian-like style, Palata writes.

   His Smer-SD seems to be generously financed by billionaires whom he has
   let steal money within public orders, Palata adds.

   Fico has nothing in common with decent social democrac y. The time has
   come for the Party of European Socialists (PES) to realise whom it has
   supported and whom it has been linked with in Slovakia, Palata writes.

   (Description of Source: Prague Czech Happenings in English -- Internet
   magazine with focus on political and economic reporting, published by CTK
   subsidiary Neris; URL: http://www.ceskenoviny.cz)

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   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   83) Back to Top
   S. Korea's Credit Rating Remains Relatively Low Among G20 Nations - Yonhap
   Monday June 14, 2010 00:37:50 GMT
   S. Korea's credit rating remains relatively low among G20 nations

   SEOUL, Ju ne 14 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's credit rating stays relatively
   low among the world's leading economies due to exposure to geopolitical
   risks, the government said Monday, underlining the need to more accurately
   explain its economic conditions to appraisal agencies.According to the
   Ministry of Strategy and Finance, South Korea ranked 10th or 11th among
   the Group of 20 industrial and emerging countries in terms of sovereign
   credit levels as of the end of May. Among the Organization for Economic
   Cooperation and Development, South Korea came in 22nd or 23rd of its 31
   member countries.The rankings vary slightly as three major credit ratings
   agencies differ in their rating of Asia's fourth-largest economy, the
   ministry explained. Standard &amp;amp; Poor's holds South Korea at the
   sixth-highest A, while Moody's and Fitch give the nation A1 and A plus,
   the fifth-highest level of their rating systems.Among the G20 countries,
   the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Australia and C anada hold
   the highest credit ratings, while Japan and Italy came next, the ministry
   said. Korea and China were in the same level in terms of credit ratings.Of
   the OECD countries, South Korea's rating stayed on par with such Eastern
   European countries as the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Especially, Moody's
   gives the highest rating of Aaa to Spain, one of the major European
   countries suffering from national debt trouble.The comparison comes as
   some experts here are taking issue with credit ratings given to South
   Korea, claiming that they do not seem to reflect the nation's accurate
   economic fundamentals. Most agencies cite North Korea as a main reason for
   hesitating to raise credit levels for South Korea."Credit companies do not
   seem to give the right appraisal to South Korea," a government official
   said. "We are still working hard to explain our accurate economic
   conditions to those agencies and remove any misunderstanding as their
   appraisal is very important to such open economies as ours."

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   84) Back to Top
   Making Our Schools Safe - JoongAng Daily Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 00:37:42 GMT
   (JOONGANG ILBO) - Even schools are no longer safe havens for our children.

   A sexual predator recently cruised onto an elementary school playground in
   broad daylight and snatched a girl, dragging her away to commit a terrible
   sexual offense.School campuses can easily be breached because they are
   open to outsiders and there is a lack of surveillance.Today, doors to main
   school buildings are left wide open during the day as well as after
   classes have ended. As a result, school grounds have become increasingly
   vulnerable to a host of crimes ranging from light offenses to major
   felonies.In Seoul, nearly 90 percent of the city's roughly 2,000
   elementary, middle and high schools keep their campuses open to outsiders.
   Many have even removed the tall walls that once surrounded their
   perimeters in an attempt to provide locals in the neighborhood with free
   access to school facilities.But school campuses in Korea have now become
   breeding grounds for gang fights, littering and booze-fueled parties.In
   this context, we believe that the current policies of maintaining open
   school grounds can undermine safety and the learning activities of
   students.In May of last year, for instance, a man in his 20s suffering a
   mental illness walked into a girls' high school classroom during and after
   school hours, scaring students inside.Over the past year, police have
   received reports of three attempts of sexual abuse on school grounds. To
   protect schools and students from outside dangers, there must be some
   limits to accessing school zones.Outsiders who aren't tied to school
   activities should not be able to freely enter schools, and time limits
   should be imposed on the use of playgrounds after classes end.In the
   United States and Britain, many schools bar outsiders - including parents
   - from entering school grounds without an appointment. Japan also employs
   such a system. In France, schools only open their doors to outsiders for
   20 minutes before and after classes.In Korea, the administration councils
   of each school should be allowed to decide what kind of restrictions
   should be put on school access, depending on their individual needs.The
   Korean Federation of Teachers' Associations has already filed a petition
   with a Grand National Party lawmaker for a bill that would give teachers
   the power to protect their schools via various methods, including limiting
   outsider access.It's time for the National Assembly to take swift action
   on this issue.(Description of Source: Seoul JoongAng Daily Online in
   English -- Website of English-language daily which provides
   English-language summaries and full-texts of items published by the major
   center-right daily JoongAng Ilbo, as well as unique reportage; distributed
   as an insert to the Seoul edition of the International Herald Tribune;
   URL: http://joongangdaily.joins.com)

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   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   85) Back to Top
   Xinhua 'Roundup': Indonesia Preparing for Coping With European Crisis
   Xinhua "Roundup" by Mulyanda Djohan : "Indonesia Preparing for Coping With
   European Crisis" - Xinhua
   Monday June 14, 2010 12:01:30 GMT
   JAKARTA, June 14 (Xinhua) - The prediction on impact of the European debt
   crisis on Indonesia has been mixed recently.

   The World Bank and the International Monetary Funds (IMF) have warned on
   the possibility of capital outflows from Indonesia as the global investors
   prefer to shift their risk assets from developing countries which have
   promised a high return to secure assets.But the Indonesian authorities
   have depended on that the Southeast Asia's largest economy has a sound
   macro-economic fundamentals amid the relatively stable political
   condition.Many predicts that the crisis in Europe will not spread impact
   as serious as the crisis in 2008 and 2009 resulted from the subprime
   mortgage in the United States.Besides, Indonesia's economy is less
   dependent on its exports but now much relying on a huge domestic
   consumption in the country with over 230 million population.T he country's
   exports to Europe is only 11.4 percent of its total overseas sales which
   accounts for 32 percent of its GDP.But, on the financial market the impact
   has already taken place as the foreign investors sold their ownership at
   short-term certificate at the central bank known as Serifikat Bank
   Indonesia or SBI in May.The total funds exited from the country reached
   over 40 trillion rupiah (some 4.35 billion U.S. dollars) in the month,
   mostly trimming the state foreign exchange reserve to 74.6 billion U.S.
   dollars from 78.6 billion U.S. dollar at the position of April 30, Deputy
   governor of central bank Darmin Nasution has said.The deputy said that the
   central bank would not impose a capital control but will prepare a policy
   which could indirectly slow the outflows and inflows of capitals.Analysts
   have said that the European debt crisis may still give impact on the
   volatility of the rupiah.In a long term, the government has also prepared
   a step to anticipate it, should a n economic crisis occur.The new measure
   rules what kinds of steps to be taken by authorities during the
   crisis.Most of Indonesia's exports are natural-resources-based products
   and agricultural commodities, which may suffer from the decline of global
   prices and demands, should the economic activities in the European
   countries weaken.Indonesia survived from the global financial routs last
   year by registering growth at average of 4 percents at the first and the
   second quarter, the highest in the world's after China and India, while
   other countries suffered from strong contraction.The country's economic
   growth accelerates faster at 5.7 percent in the first quarter of this year
   amid the rebound of exports and investment, after growing at 5.4 percent
   at final quarter of last year.The exports surged by 53.68 percent to 35.39
   billion U.S. dollars in the first three months this year from the same
   period of last year, and investment rose by 25 percent.Indonesia's economy
   is expected t o grow at 6 percent and 6.4 percent this year and next year
   respectively.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's
   official news service for English-language audiences (New China News
   Agency))

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   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   86) Back to Top
   Activists Protest About Plan To Build Nuclear Power Plants in Country
   Report by Andri Haryanto: "Rejecting Nuclear Energy, 100 Persons Protest
   at Proclamation of Independence Monument" - detikcom
   Monday June 14, 2010 10:15:13 GMT
   The protest by people's movement to say no to nuclear power plant
   development was attended to by representatives of regions where nuclear
   power plants have been planned, like East Kalimantan, West Kalimantan,
   Maduar, and Bangka Belitung.

   Protesters held banners that read "No Nuke No More Chernobyl" (as
   published) and "Greenpeace Energy Revolution Now" as well as "The
   Motherland is a Nuclear- Free Zone."

   They also erected a six-by-three m. tent, where discussions were held, and
   photos of victims of nuclear radiation were displayed.

   "We have our own renewable energy. There is no need for involvement of
   external parties," said Kahar al Bahri, an environmental activist from
   East Kalimantan.

   Taufiqurahman from Madura conveyed the same view. According to him, the
   plan to build a nuclear power plant in Madura is based on the assumption
   that Madura will face water and electricity crises by 2015. But water has
   been abundant until now.

   "We will be turned into a second Iraq by the superpower. The poss ibility
   of a leak in the nuclear power plant is high because our country is
   corrupt," Taufiqurahman said.

   Arif Fiyanto, Greenpeace Southeast Asia's campaigner for climate and
   energy, said that people in the surrounding areas rejected nuclear power
   plants because they carried very high risks.

   (Description of Source: Jakarta detikcom in Indonesian -- Independent
   internet portal that is updated regularly with fast-breaking national
   news. Widely read by urban, educated, middle-class; URL:
   http://www.detik.com)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   87) Back to Top
   Roundup of Middle East Friday Sermons 11 Jun - Middle East -- OSC Summary
   Monday June 14, 2010 16:59:15 GMT
   Amman Jordan Television Channel, official television station of the
   Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, at 0944 GMT is observed to carry live today's
   Friday sermon from the King Husayn Bin-Talal Mosque in Amman.Shaykh
   Abd-al-Karim al-Khasawinah, general mufti of the kingdom, delivers the
   sermon.

   He begins by praising God, praying for the prophet and his companions,
   urging worshippers to fear God and to obey Him.

   In his Friday sermon, the preacher highlights the "special qualities" God
   bestowed on man.To support his argument, the preacher quotes the following
   verses from the Koran: "We have indeed created man in the best of moulds,
   then do We abase him (to be) the lowest of the low,- except such as
   believe and do righteous deeds: For they shall have a reward unfailing."
   (Koranic verse, Al-Tin (The Fig), 95:4-6) The preacher elaborates on this
   issue and quotes mor e verses from the Koran and sayings by the prophet to
   this effect.

   The preacher quotes the following verses from the Koran to prove that
   "faith has a high status with God and that God will not abandon the
   believers:" "Men said to them: "A great army is gathering against you":
   And frightened them: But it (only) increased their Faith: They said: "For
   us Allah sufficeth, and He is the best disposer of affairs."And they
   returned with Grace and bounty from Allah. no harm ever touched them: For
   they followed the good pleasure of Allah.And Allah is the Lord of bounties
   unbounded." (Koranic verse, Al Imran (The Family of Imran), 3:173)

   He says: "The issue of closing ranks is self-evident.We have seen its
   great benefit when the Islamic nation was united and we have suffered a
   great deal when the nation became disunited and when its solidarity
   vanished."He adds: "Therefore, we notice that we should close our ranks, m
   aintain national unity, and rally round the Hashemite leadership."

   The imam concludes with a prayer for pardon and mercy. Lebanon:

   Beirut Lebanese National News Agency WWW-Text in Arabic -official
   government news agency carries reports on the Lebanese Friday sermons:

   At 0711 GMT, the news agency carries a report on the Friday sermon, which
   Shaykh Ali Fadlallah delivered on behalf of Scholar Muhammad Husayn
   Fadlallah at the Imams Al-Hasanayn Mosque in Beirut.

   In his Friday sermon, Fadlallah says: "The big powers always rush to
   protect the Zionist entity every time political and humanitarian pressures
   increase on it.These pressures have come following the recent crime, which
   it committed in international waters against the Freedom Flotilla, which
   was heading to break the siege on Gaza.Despite this, the enemy's
   government still rejects the idea of international investigation.This is
   because it wants to emphasize a host of issues: First, tha t it is a
   state, which is above international laws, which the world sways on the
   oppressed peoples and their countries only.Second, confirming its security
   control on the sea in a way to prevent any naval activity, which conflicts
   with its rules and policies and the rules and policies of the big
   powers.This is particularly true since NATO, some time ago, has accepted
   it as a part of its naval activity in the Mediterranean.Third, securing an
   objective reality through which it is preparing to steal huge gas fields
   in the Lebanese territorial waters."

   Fadlallah adds: "While we value the Turkish Government's position, we
   stress the need to insist on the positions of the Turkish people,
   particularly in light of the enemy's wagering on the time factor and on
   the indulgence in the World Cup games to make the Islamic and Arab world
   forget its martyrs and causes.After this, the arrogant policy will involve
   us in more than one tunnel in which all achievements that hav e been made
   will be lost.At the same time, we stress that the official Arab position
   is still below the acceptable level.The issue is not one of a partial
   opening of the crossing or an issue of food and medicine, but, in addition
   to this, it is an issue of people and land and resistance and
   steadfastness.Therefore, supporting these people is one of the basic
   Islamic and humanitarian rules.In fact, this is the religious
   responsibility of everyone, peoples and officials, before God and
   history."

   Fadlallah says: "The Arab and Islamic street has become sick of the
   humanitarian or verbal impetuosities by some Arab and Muslim officials
   when the issue embarrasses them before their peoples.This broad street
   wants the issue to be an issue of responsibility, which expresses itself
   at all times based on plan and action, and not on improvisation and naive
   action.We tell everyone: Do not wager on fooling the peoples, for peoples
   have many points of awareness as a result of all the bitter experiences
   through which you have tried to kill their spirit.The cause of Palestine,
   all Palestine, is still alive for these peoples, and the officials should
   rise to their level.They should stop their attempts to silence them
   through direct oppression, emergency laws, or the like.As for the
   Palestinians, who call for unity, we tell them to respond to those who
   call for unity and to pave the way for the success of the internal efforts
   to achieve reconciliation.However, beware of the thieves of negotiations
   and the merchants of politics in the Arab and international arenas, who
   will be lying in wait for this unity to foil it at any new political
   turning point in the region."

   Fadlallah adds: "The UN Security Council, which is the institution, which
   is the biggest conspirator against the freedom of peoples, which refused
   to denounce the enemy's exposed barbaric crime against the Freedom
   Flotilla in international water, and which covers the en tire history of
   the Zionist crime in Palestine and the region, it has imposed new
   sanctions on Iran.This is despite the Islamic Republic's great positive
   dealing with the international efforts, particularly the Turkish and
   Brazilian efforts.It was extremely transparent regarding the peaceful
   nuclear issue.This is because it has become clear that the arrogant
   states, which influence the positions of decision-making in this world,
   work, in one way or another, to guarantee that there will be no position
   of power, even on the scientific and technological level, in the Arab and
   Islamic world.They do not allow any developing state to have any influence
   on the political action, whose game is run by these big powers."

   Concluding, Fadlallah says: "In light of this situation, Lebanon should
   work to fortify its society in the face of changes on the level of
   tackling the social problems, beginning with the problems of poverty,
   education, teachers, energy resources, and the like.This is in addition to
   consolidating the elements of strength in the face of the Zionist entity
   based on realism and away from the slogans, which hide behind them the
   disguise of submission to all the threats of the arrogant ones."

   At 0856 GMT, the news agency carries reports on Friday sermons by other
   preachers, as follows:

   Shaykh Khalid al-Sulh, mufti of Ba'labakk-Al-Hirmil, says: "The Lebanese
   Government's wise position, which abstained from voting at the UN Security
   Council, proves Lebanon's refusal to take part in the game of nations and
   in the issue of settling accounts in this game in the Lebanese arena."

   He adds: "Lebanon, the people, the institutions, and the government, are
   in the forefront of the states, which reject the weapons of mass
   destruction and the nuclear weapons.The international community should
   adopt a unanimous position on stripping the Zionist entity of its nuclear
   weapons.This is because peace and st ability will not be achieved as long
   as the Zionist entity, which usurps Palestine, is armed to teeth with
   nuclear and mass destruction weapons."

   Al-Sulh criticizes the US position, "which uses double standards."He says:
   "This position is with the nuclear weapons in Israel and against them in
   Iran.A fair position should reject the existence of nuclear weapons in all
   states in the Middle East, and not to allow this state to possess them and
   incite against other states."

   Shaykh Judge Ahmad Darwish al-Kurdi calls on the Arab and Muslim leaders
   "to adhere to their solidarity and unity to take the Middle East region
   away from the dangers of nuclear weapons and weapons of mass
   destruction."He calls on America and the UN Security Council "to look with
   one eye at the dangers of nuclear weapons and to completely prevent their
   existence in any state in the region, particularly the Zionist entity in
   Palestine."He says: "Ot herwise, why Israel is allowed to possess nuclear
   weapons and other states are not allowed to possess them?"

   In conclusion, "he praises the recent Lebanese abstention from voting at
   the UN Security Council because the UN Security Council resolution is
   unfair, taking into consideration that the Zionist entity is allowed to
   possess these lethal weapons, and in fact, it is supplied with money,
   expertise, and information."

   Shaykh Ahmad al-Baba, member of the Administrative Council of the Islamic
   Awqaf in Beirut, "hails the Lebanese Government's position at the UN
   Security Council." "He praises the important speech, which Prime Minister
   Sa'd al-Hariri delivered in Istanbul, and in which he called for promoting
   Arab-Turkish partnership."

   He says that the "Lebanese-Turkish relations and Turkish-Arab relations
   constitute the cornerstone in besieging the Zionist influence in the Arab
   region."He calls on the Arab states to "emulate the advanced Turkish
   example, particularly the position of Prime Minister Erdogan, who said
   that Jerusalem is like Istanbul and Gaza is like Ankara and took upon
   himself to break the siege, which is imposed on the Palestinian people,
   specifically the Gaza Strip."

   In conclusion, Al-Baba calls on the Lebanese leaderships "to work to close
   ranks and to support the government in order to enable the state to find a
   way out of the region's crisis with as minimum losses as possible, taking
   into consideration that Lebanon, with its size and capabilities, cannot be
   a part of the game of nations and its deals, whose price the small states
   pays."

   At 1001 GMT, the news agency carries a report on a Friday sermon by Grand
   Ja'farite (Shiite) Mufti Shaykh Ahmad Qabalan.

   In his Friday sermon, Qabalan says: "The entire region is passing through
   a stage of complication and regional and international tension.Therefore,
   the Lebanese, par ticularly the Lebanese officials, should have a high
   degree of coordination and integration in adopting the positions and
   making the decisions, which fortify Lebanon and make it stronger in the
   face of challenges, particularly the Zionist challenges.This is
   particularly true since all previous and current indications showed that
   Israel is an outlaw, that it was established on terrorism, that it will
   not relinquish its hostility to the region and its peoples, and that it
   will not accept anything less than the continuation of this tense
   situation, which could explode at any moment no matter how many
   concessions or submissions were made to it."

   He adds: "What Israel did against the Freedom Flotilla, out of its known
   hostility, and the massacre it has perpetrated against peace activists,
   whose main concern was to break the siege imposed on Gaza and to bring
   food and medicine to its besieged sons and children, prove for the one
   thousand times that the policy of n egotiations and the carrying of the
   olive branch with this enemy has become one of the rejected things, which
   cannot be accepted regardless of advices, pretexts, and justifications."

   Qabalan says: "The word neutrality in the peak of struggle between the
   Arab truth and the Zionist falsehood is a dubious word and includes
   meanings, which undermine the dignity of the Lebanese and disdain the
   blood of the martyrs, who rejected the dictum of Lebanon's strength lies
   in its weakness.This is why t hey have sacrificed their blood for the sake
   of the unity of this country and the pride of its sons.These martyrs have
   proved that after the achievements of victory, Lebanon is no longer a ball
   in the international court, but it has become a key player, who declares
   the truth and does not compromise on it, and who is capable of adopting
   positions courageously and without dictates from anyone.Based on this, we
   are astonished at the Lebanese Government's ambiguous position, which has
   led it to abstaining from voting at the UN Security Council on an unjust,
   arbitrary, and a criminal resolution against the Islamic Republic of Iran
   on the pretext that Lebanon's interests necessitate this.This
   justification is inappropriate, and we do not envy those who believe in it
   on their erroneous assessments and readings, which are still upside-down,
   and which show the ugliness of their positions no matter what they do to
   beautify them."

   Qabalan points out: "Experiences showed that the international community's
   umbrella and resolutions have always been in the service of the Zionist
   entity and for the sake of protecting it.When the issue has something to
   do with the rights of other states and peoples, we find that this umbrella
   is out of order and its resolutions are invalid.In fact, we see that they
   are biased toward Israel, with which the entire current political and
   diplomatic activity is no longer useful.Therefore, it is no longer allowed
   to deal with it except with the language it understands and masters."

   In conclusion, he calls on the Arab regimes, which "have open and secret
   relations with this enemy, to sever these relations immediately, to put an
   end to the US Administration's political hypocrisy, and not to wager on
   the kind of peace, which comes from Washington."He says: "We also call on
   these regimes to establish firm fraternal relations with Iran and Turkey
   and to build the largest alliance, which includes all the region's states,
   in order to form an integral deterrent force against the US-Zionist
   projects."

   At 1155 GMT, the news agency carries a report on a Friday sermon by Shaykh
   Abd-al-Amir Qabalan, vice chairman of the Higher Islamic Shiite Council.

   In his Friday sermon, Qabalan says: "Palestine has become a victim and we
   are the reason behind this because we have disavowed our values, people,
   and unity.Islam is the religion of unity, righteousn ess, and amity.On
   this day, the day on which the faithful hearts gather, we call on you to
   abide by all that is good and to avoid evil.The Arabs and Muslims should
   be in one trench against the accursed Satan and against the Zionist enemy,
   which is lying in wait on the border."

   He adds: "Palestine appeals to the consciences of Arabs and Muslims to
   support it, to support its people, and to rescue its holy places and break
   the siege, which is imposed on its cities and villages.Entire Palestine is
   besieged because it is still under occupation, which is tightening the
   grip on it."

   Qabalan calls on the Lebanese state to "work to meet the people's needs,
   to work in their favor, and to improve their living conditions."

   Concluding, Qabalan says: "There are good signs of understanding and
   cooperation among the Iraqis, who, today, call for relinquishing
   selfishness and envy, for closing ranks, and for bolstering Iraqi unity
   through coo peration, consultation, and accord.We want Iraq to recover and
   to work on the straight path in cooperation with its brothers inside and
   outside Iraq.Therefore, we should protect it, along with its institutions,
   through accord and cooperation, in order to allow it to live in security
   and stability." Qatar:

   Doha Qatar Television Service, official television of the State of Qatar,
   carries at 0838 GMT a live sermon from Umar Ibn-al-Khattab Mosque in
   Doha.An unidentified preacher delivers the sermon.

   The preacher begins his sermon by praising God and His Prophet Muhammad.H
   e then urges worshippers to fear God.

   In this Friday sermon, the preacher highlights the importance of adherence
   to the religion and teachings of God and the guidance of the prophet,
   particularly in this age, which produced "materialistic civilization,
   whose advocates are atheists and infidels, who blaspheme God and Muhammad,
   the Messenger of God."He says: "They know no religion, they do not accept
   any religion, and they do not believe in the hereafter.They plan for their
   civilization away from God, his teachings, worship, and laws.They have
   dropped from their minds every consideration for God; for His Messenger,
   God's peace and prayers be upon him; and for his religion and laws.They
   entertain themselves like cattle and their abode is hellfire."The preacher
   elaborates on this issue and quotes verses from the Koran and sayings by
   the prophet to this effect.

   He adds: "Despite their progress, as they call it, we see that they
   inflict injustice on peoples, attack them with their weapons and destroy
   their countries, and plunder their resources.At the same time, we find
   them in the organizations, which they call humanitarian, defending human
   rights at a time when they are the first ones who violate human rights.In
   fact, they themselves, and no one else, are the first to encroach on human
   rights and inflict injustice on man.Their prisons and jails are full of
   innocent people, of Muslims and other oppressed people.They want the whole
   world to embrace their systems, approaches, and the destructive ways of
   their life."

   The imam concludes with a prayer for pardon and mercy.He prays to God to
   "support Islam and Muslims."He beseeches God to "support the Book, the
   Sunna, and your Muslim servants, grant victory to anyone who supports your
   Book and the Sunna of your prophet, and humiliate anyone who rejects your
   Book and the Sunna of your prophet."He prays to God "to make the enemies'
   plots backfire on them," and "grant victory to our Muslim brothers,
   particularly the people of Palestine, Sudan, Afghanistan, and Iraq."
   Syria:

   Damascus Syrian Arab Republic Radio in Arabic -- official radio station of
   the Syrian Government - carries at 0839 GMT a live sermon from the Umayyad
   Mosque in Damascus.Shaykh Dr Muhammad Sa'id Ramadan al-Buti delivers the
   sermon .

   He begins by praising God and His prophet and urging the worshippers to
   fear God, to be faithful to Him, to rely on Him, and to seek forgiveness
   from Him.

   In his Friday sermon, Al-Buti says: "The tyrants, who were intoxicated by
   tyranny, which robbed them of their minds, behave as if they do not have
   minds or reason."He adds: "This description applies to the tyrannical
   clique, which is weighing heavily on our Arab and Islamic land in
   Palestine.Tyranny has intoxicated it and thus, it has lost its mind.This
   is so that God's divine decree applies to it.It no longer fights anyone
   who stands in its face to defend his right and land only, but it began to
   fight the very heart of humanity.It fights humanity wherever it maybe.This
   is because it knows that humanity disapproves of its tyranny.It knows that
   humanity, wherever it may exist, disapproves of its arrogance and
   haughtiness.Consequently, it is now an enemy of humanity itself, and not
   only an enem y of those who defend themselves or their rights.Therefore,
   this clique views food, which might take its way to the innocent and
   peaceful people, as being a weapon that is sent to them.This is why it
   imposes siege on these poor people, who are only waiting for food or
   water.It imposes siege on them and considers the food sent to them as
   being a destructive weapon that is put in their hands."

   He says: "This clique has declared war against humanity, although it only
   carries some love and sympathy.Thus, it has destroyed its humanitarian
   convoy, which only carries sympathy and love for these people.This
   sympathy and love are represented in food to be eaten, clothes to be put
   on, and medicine for treatment.This is what the world is seeing today."

   He adds: "Their minds were stripped off them.This is if they have minds.I
   do not think that there is any mind, which can coexist with
   tyranny.Tyranny has always been and is still their habit.Tyranny into
   xicates more than wine.The Lord of the Worlds has made this clique lose
   what has remained of its mind to make it act haphazardly and to carry out
   more reckless acts so that the Western world will declare its hatred,
   which has been and is still hidden, but is increasing in chests.This is
   also to make the West announce its anger, which has been and is still
   boiling in hearts.The Western man, however, was not able to declare this
   because of the cover of politics, which controls him and deprives him of
   the freedom to say what he wants and to puff out the sighs, which are
   hidden in his chest.However, what this tyrannical clique did on our
   Islamic and Arab land and its war against humanity wherever it may exist
   have made the hidden feelings of the Western man triumph over politics and
   over the cover of politics.This cover was thick in the past.Therefore, it
   was difficult for the Western man to penetrate it.However, it has become a
   thin cover today, which is easy to penetrate." ;

   Al-Buti says: "You will see that the Western street, and I do not say
   Western politics, the European and the US street, will gradually announce
   its mammoth wrath against this clique, which declared its war and plots
   against humanity.It does not fight a group of people who are besieged in
   Gaza or elsewhere, but it fights humanity wherever it maybe.This mammoth
   wrath there is expanding day by day.I am certain that the feelings of
   hatred are boiling in chests there.They were hidden like a volcano, which
   conceals what is inside it, but one day will come when this volcano
   explodes with everything in it.It began to explode today.This is a fact,
   which we should have in mind and which we should link to God's laws."

   He adds: "What is regrettable and painful, however, which we should not
   forget, is that a group of our kinfolk and relatives, still enjoy
   humiliation and weakness.They have all surrendered to this side, which
   declares war against humanity wh erever it maybe, the side, which makes
   out of food and medicine a dangerous issue as if they were weapons of mass
   destruction.This group, whether it is small or big, of our people, still
   enjoys this humiliation.They respond to the signals of this side, which
   has declared war against humanity wherever it maybe, against all heavenly
   laws, against all international laws, and against all humanitarian
   laws."He says that such people have no excuse to do so.

   He says: "Turkey is only one of the states or groups, which has
   humanitarian feelings, and therefore, it wants to defend humanity, which
   lives inside it and in its entity.Why they accuse Turkey that through
   this, it searches for the crown it has lost and its pride, which it has
   lost when the caliphate was lost?"He also criticizes those who accuse
   Turkey of seeking influence in the Arab and Islamic countries.He says that
   this is "strange nonsense."

   Al-Buti adds: "This is one of the law s of the Lord of the Worlds.The
   Messenger of God informed us of this law when he said, "If God wants to
   implement his divine decree, he strips the minds off those who have minds,
   why, so that God's decision will apply to them." "He then quotes the
   following verse from the Koran: "Behold! thy Lord did declare that He
   would send against them, to the Day of Judgment, those who would afflict
   them with grievous penalty.Thy Lord is quick in retribution." (Koranic
   verse, Al-A'raf (The Heights), 7:167)

   He says: "O servants of God, this is not speculation or arbitrary talk,
   but it is a decision, which will be implemented.The Western man will
   become angrier and he will declare his hidden feelings, and in fact, he
   began to do so as of today, toward this side, which fights humanity in one
   of its purest facts and principles.You will see the sacred human wrath
   declared in the streets of the West, with its US and European part s,
   against this clique.You will then see God's decision implemented before
   your eyes; namely, "Behold! thy Lord did declare that He would send
   against them, to the Day of Judgment, those who would afflict them with
   grievous penalty."

   The imam concludes with a prayer for pardon and mercy. Yemen:

   Sanaa Republic of Yemen Television in Arabic, official television station
   of the Republic of Yemen, carries at 0911 GMT a live sermon from the
   Al-Salih Mosque in Sanaa. Shaykh Hasan Abdallah al-Shaykh delivers the
   sermon.

   He begins by praising God and His prophet and urging the worshippers to
   fear God, to be faithful to Him, to rely on Him, and to seek forgiveness
   from Him.

   In his Friday sermon, the preacher highlights the importance of sincerity
   and honesty in the life of the believers.The preacher gives examples of
   "cheating and deception" by merchants.He then quotes the following verses
   from the Koran: "Woe to those that deal in fraud,- Those who, when t hey
   have to receive by measure from men, exact full measure, but when they
   have to give by measure or weight to men, give less than due.Do they not
   think that they will be called to account? - On a Mighty Day, a Day when
   (all) mankind will stand before the Lord of the Worlds?" (Koranic verse,
   Al-Mutaffifin (Those Who Deal in Fraud), 83:1-6) The preacher elaborates
   on this issue.He gives more examples of "cheating" in the life of people
   and explains its negative effects on their life and on the society, which
   they live in.He quotes more verses from the Koran and sayings by the
   prophet to this effect.

   The imam concludes with a prayer for pardon and mercy.He prays to God to
   "support Islam and Muslims, humiliate polytheism and polytheists, destroy
   your enemies, the enemies of religion, and protect the seminary of Muslims
   with your mercy."He beseeches God "to grant victory to our brothers who
   perform jihad in your cause, who seek to elevate yo ur word; support them;
   help them; and close their ranks."

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   Commerce.

   88) Back to Top
   Commercial Times: Crisis Underlying Taiwan's Public Debt
   By Y.F. Low - Central News Agency
   Tuesday June 15, 2010 04:29:06 GMT
   Official statistics show that the debt owed by the central government
   stands at just NT$4.6 trillion, accounting for 35.3 percent of Taiwan's
   average gross national product for the past three years.

   The calculation was made based on Taiwan's unique definition of public
   debt, which excludes debt owed by nonprofit funds, short-term loans, and
   self-redeem ing debt. In other words, if all these items are included --
   which is how the United States, Europe and Japan define their public debts
   -- the outstanding amount of Taiwan's public debt as a percentage of the
   country's gross domestic product (GDP) could be much higher.According to
   an estimate by the Legislative Yuan's budget center, the outstanding
   amount of central government debt accounted for 90.5 percent of GDP in
   2008. Another estimate by the Ministry of Audit, which includes hidden
   debt, put the amount at NT$19.7 trillion, accounting for 151 percent of
   GDP.Such unclear definitions of public debt has drawn widespread doubts
   and has also sowed the horrible seeds of crisis. As shown from Greece's
   example, non-transparent debt statistics can do far more serious harm than
   the debt itself.We urge legislators to amend the Public Debt Act to adopt
   the internationally accepted definition for public debt so as to prevent
   Taiwan from repeating Greece's error. (June 15, 2010)(Desc ription of
   Source: Taipei Central News Agency in English -- "Central News Agency
   (CNA)," Taiwan's major state-run press agency; generally favors ruling
   administration in its coverage of domestic and international affairs; URL:
   http://www.cna.com.tw)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   89) Back to Top
   Kan's Characteristics as Politician and Understanding on Security Issues
   Article by Rui Abiru titled "Naoto Kan Takes the Mound with Priority on
   Performance and His 30 Year Plan, Light Demeanor of Kan Could Be a Good
   or Bad Omen." Article discusses Prime Minister Kan's strong desire for
   upward mobility, his catering to the wishes of the people, his feelings
   about the Imperial family, and concerns about his understanding of
   security. Kan's light demeanor could turn out to be either a good or a bad
   omen. - Sankei Shimbun Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 21:45:36 GMT
   During a speech in Tokyo on 2 June, the former Minister of Internal
   Affairs and Communications Kunio Hatoyama, who is also Prime Minister
   Hatoyama's younger brother, reflected on the events in which Kan
   participated when the former Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) was formed in
   1996.

   "My brother and I decided to try and form the framework for the DPJ.
   Later, Kan entered the picture and said that he would be reluctant to
   participate unless he was the party president, so Kan and my brother
   served as co-presidents."

   The impression that the people who are close to Kan have of him is that he
   is the kind of person who has a strong desire for "upward mobility" and
   who is "greedy for power". In fact, in the eight elections for DPJ party
   presidents thus far, Kan declared his candidacy seven times. The only
   exception was in the party president election of May last year when
   according to a lawmaker who is a close advisor to Kan, "There was no
   advantage with the state of affairs, so he wasn't able to make a move."

   This time however, Prime Minister Hatoyama resigned and DPJ Secretary
   General Ichiro Ozawa, who had a bad reputation due to problems with
   "politics and money" resigned as well. As a result, the line of sight of
   voters on the DPJ has softened. However, that does not mean that there has
   been a dramatic improvement in the tough circumstances that the DPJ will
   face in the Upper House election.

   The understanding of the people of Okinawa Prefecture for the problem of
   relocating the U.S. Marine Corps Futenma Air Station (Ginowan City,
   Okinawa Prefecture) has not been obtained, and no prospect has yet emerged
   for reaching a solution. In fact, the DPJ is still a long way from
   securing the financial resources needed to execute its manifesto (policy
   statements) from the Lower House election last year.

   Did Kan, who daringly risked his own neck in a situation where it appeared
   that he was blocked in every direction, have a winning chance? Even though
   the conditions were unfavorable, perhaps Kan did not want to let the
   opportunity to become prime minister pass him by.

   Prime Minister Hatoyama took a chance and boldly stated that the Futenma
   base should "at the very least be relocated outside of Okinawa" and that
   the issue would "be decided by the end of May." According to Vice Minister
   of Finance Yoshihiko Noda, these statements became Hatoyama's "own goal"
   and are what eventually destroyed him. Kan avoided the problem by claiming
   that he "was not involved", but what should he do?

   In the case of Prime Minister Hatoyama, his past remarks such as "The
   wrongdoing of my secretary is the wrongdoing of a Diet lawmaker"
   boomeranged and came back to damage him personally. However, when it comes
   to boomerangs, Kan is known as the "original wielder" of boomerangs.

   As DPJ President at the time, Kan pursued the Liberal Democratic Party
   (LDP) on the problem of unpaid annuities, but in 2004, Kan was forced to
   resign as DPJ President when it was discovered that Kan himself had not
   paid annuities. He then shaved his head and made a pilgrimage to t he 88
   temples on the island of Shikoku. Catering to the Wishes of the Public

   From the time that he won his first election thirty years ago, Kan has
   become well known by those around him by the nickname "Ira-Kan", or
   "Irritable Kan", due to his reputation for having a hot temper.

   However, he is not simply a person who acts on impulse. He also shows
   glimpses of being a "populist (a politici an who caters to the wishes of
   the public)" who turns to the right or to the left depending on the
   situation.

   While Kan has felt pride in the Zenkyoto generation (united front
   generation) and rejects the "establishment", his focus on liberalism is
   strong. On the other hand, when he sees the momentum of the conservatives
   in the party, he does not miss opportunities to appeal to that group
   either. During his speech for the party president election of 2006, he
   quoted at great length from "The Dignity of the Nation", a book by the
   conservative mathematician Masahiko Fujiwara, and according to a
   mid-ranking lawmaker, "It was entirely unbecoming of him."

   In September 1996, Kan formed the former DPJ and resigned as Welfare
   Minister. Concerning this, Etsuko Kawada, the plaintiff in a lawsuit about
   AIDS caused by contaminated blood products, pressed, "Even though it's a
   new political party, it's lacking principles, so I can't supp ort it." Kan
   responded as follows.

   "What do you expect with a political party."

   Perhaps because of that type of division, Kan has wandered from party to
   party during his political career, serving as a political independent,
   joining the Socialist Democratic Federation (SDF) and then being immersed
   in a small party after being quieted by the SDF. Perhaps it is because of
   his political career that Kan likes a performance.

   When the outbreak of the avian flu occurred, Kan appeared before cameras
   eating chicken rice bowls. Then, when BSE (bovine spongiform
   encephalopathy = mad cow disease) became the topic of conversation, Kan
   was shown eating dishes of beef on rice, and finally, when there were
   questions about radish sprouts being tainted with the O157 strain of the
   E. coli bacteria, Kan appeared before a camera eating three packs of
   radish sprouts.

   In January 2002 while serving as the DPJ Secretary General, Kan took a
   group of reporters with him to inspect a public job stabilization office
   and used a personal computer to try a job search.

   "Age 55, monthly income of 500,000 yen." The job search ended in criticism
   about the high level of Kan's desired monthly income and complaints that
   he did not understand the difficulty in finding a new job. Recognition of
   the Imperial Family and Security

   The area in which there is a feeling of anxiety is how Kan will deal with
   the issues of foreign diplomacy, security, and his understanding of
   history.

   At a press conference in the city of Naha in January 2003 while serving as
   DPJ President, Kan expressed his pet theory that if the DPJ gained control
   of the administration, the party would demand a withdrawal of the marines.
   He stated, "The security of the Far East can be maintained even without
   (U.S.) Marine Corps bases and troops in Okinawa. We are considering
   relocation in the basic direction of relocation outside of Japan."
   Currently, Kan is of the position that the relocation of the Futenma base
   should be based on the agreement between Japan and the United States for
   relocation within Okinawa. How is this position compatible with his pet
   theory?

   There is also the problem of Kan's signing of a petition calling for mercy
   and the release of the former death row inmate Shin Kwang-Soo, a North
   Korean agent who committed the crime of abduction. On Kan's own home page,
   he apologizes for signing the petition and states, "I want to apologize
   for my carelessness." However, in an e-mail newsletter dated 4 June,
   former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe sarcastically remarked, "(The former
   death row inmate Shin Kwang-Soo) must have wanted to send him a message to
   congratu late him on his ascension to Prime Minister."

   Kan's view of the Imperial family is also difficult to perceive. When Kan
   was nominated as the new Prime Minister on 4 June, the Emperor was slated
   to go on a retre at beginning that same day, and because the Emperor's
   schedule could not be confirmed, Kan passed on a swearing in ceremony at
   the Imperial Palace that day.

   In May 2005, Kan made it clear that he recognizes that at the end of World
   War II Emperor Hirohito should have been abdicated.

   At the government sponsored "celebration to commemorate the Emperor's 20
   th year on the throne", which was held in November of last year, Kan
   served as the vice-chairman of the celebration committee. Nonetheless, it
   was pointed out (in response to a question from Lower House LDP Lawmaker
   Taro Kimura) that in the presence of the Emperor, "His head bobbed up and
   down time and time again and then he dozed off."

   Kan is showing signs of "lightness" with a wet feel that differs from the
   clear, gravity-free flightiness of Hatoyama. All we can do now is wait and
   see if this demeanor becomes a good or a bad omen for Kan.

   (Description of Source: Tok yo Sankei Shimbun Online in Japanese --
   Website of daily published by Fuji Sankei Communications Group; URL:
   http://sankei.jp.msn.com)Attachments:sankei5jun-kansogo2.pdf

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   90) Back to Top
   Okinawa Local TV Evening News 14 Jun 10
   For a copy of the video, contact GSG_GVP_VideoOps@rccb.osis.gov or the OSC
   Customer Center at (800) 205-8615. Selected video also available at
   OpenSource.gov. - Japan -- OSC Summary
   Monday June 14, 2010 14:52:40 GMT
   The main local news segment of "Haisai News 610" carries as its first
   story a 1.5-minute report on Okinawa Gover nor Hirokazu Nakaima's first
   meeting with Prime Minister Naoto Kan to be held at the Prime Minister's
   Official Residence on the morning of 15 June.The governor will reportedly
   request from prime minister measures to reduce the burden of the US
   military bases on Okinawa and discuss the relocation of the US Marine
   Corps Air Station (MCAS) Futenma and economic measures.

   The fourth story of the day is a 1.5-minute report on a spouse of a US
   military member stationed in Okinawa convicted for smuggling marijuana.

   The fifth story of the day is a 1.5-minute report on the US military, the
   Japanese government, and Okinawa prefecture holding a working-level
   meeting at Naha on measures for reinforcing discipline on US military
   members to prevent crimes.

   Naha NHK Television in Japanese is the Naha-based station of Japan's
   public broadcast network Nippon Hoso Kyokai (NHK). Naha OTV Television in
   Japanese, "OTV Super News" 0917-0955 GMT (1817-1855 local)
   &lt; br&gt;Click here to view the streamed video of the first report in .wmv
   format.

   The main local news segment of "OTV Super News" carries as its third story
   a 1-minute report on the Democratic Party of Japan's (DPJ) Okinawa chapter
   giving up on fielding an upper house candidate who is against relocating
   MCAS Futenma within Okinawa and instead cooperating with the Social
   Democratic Party's candidate.

   The eighth story of the day is a 1-minute report on a US-military related
   civilian given a one-year sentence for smuggling marijuana from the States
   in April 2010.

   The 11th story of the day is a 1-minute report on Okinawa Governor
   Hirokazu Nakaima meeting with Prime Minister Naoto Kan tomorrow at 0830 in
   Prime Minister's Official Residence.

   Naha OTV Television in Japanese is an affiliate of Fuji Television, part
   of the Fuji-Sankei group. Naha RBC Television in Japanese, "RBC THE NEWS"
   0915-0955 GMT (1815-1855 local)

   Click here to view the streamed video of the reports in .wmv format.

   The main local news segment of "RBC THE NEWS" carries as its third story a
   1.5-minute report on a working team consisting of the US military, the
   Japanese government, and Okinawa prefecture's representatives hold meeting
   on measures to prevent crimes and accidents by US military members.The
   team reported that the US military-related crimes and accidents have
   doubled to 26 incidents from the period of January to April this year
   compared to the same period last year.

   The fourth story of the day is a 1-minute report on Okinawa Governor
   Nakaima's meeting with Prime Minister Kan on 15 June for the first time
   after the prime minister's inauguration.

   Naha RBC Television in Japanese is affiliated with TBS Television, which
   has ties with major daily Mainichi Shimbun. Naha QAB Television in
   Japanese, "Station Q" 0928-0953 GMT (1828-1853 local)

   Click here to view the streamed video of the reports in .wmv format.

   The main local news segment of "Station Q" carries as its first story a
   1-minute report on the DPJ's Okinawa chapter giving up on fielding an
   upper house candidate who is against relocating MCAS Futenma within
   Okinawa.

   The second story of the day is a 0.5-minute report on Okinawa Governor
   Nakaima's meeting with Prime Minister Kan on 15 June for the first time
   after the prime minister's inauguration.

   Naha QAB Television in Japanese is an affiliate of TV Asahi, owned by
   major daily Asahi Shimbun.

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   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   91) Back to Top
   DPRK Party Organ on US-ROK-Japan Agreements at 5 Jun Defense Minister
   Talks
   OSC plans to process the below-cited Rodong Sinmun "signed commentary" as
   first referent item; KCNA headline: "S. Korea-u.S.-japan 'Cooperation' in
   Moves For War of Aggression Against DPRK Under Fire" - KCNA
   Monday June 14, 2010 05:17:09 GMT
   (Description of Source: Pyongyang KCNA in English -- Official DPRK news
   agency. URL: http://www.kcna.co.jp)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   92) Back to Top
   DPRK Condemns IAEA Chief's Comment on Nuclear Issue
   Xinhua: "DPRK Condemns IAEA Chief's Comment on Nuclear Issue" - Xinhua
   Monday J une 14, 2010 05:55:36 GMT
   PYONGYANG, June 14 (Xinhua) -- The Democratic People's Republic of Korea
   (DPRK) on Monday slammed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
   chief's comment on the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula.

   A statement carried by the official Rodong Sinmun newspaper said Yukiya
   Amano's demand last week for the DPRK to fulfil its obligation under the
   nuclear Non-Proliferation of Treaty (NPT) was "ignorant."It said the DPRK
   is not a member of the IAEA and has quit the NPT, adding the DPRK "has no
   obligations to obey the NPT."The statement said the DPRK had done its best
   to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula and the tense situation on the
   peninsula is caused by the U.S. anti-DPRK policy.The statement urged Amano
   to know the concept and history of the nuclear issue and the process of
   the six-party talks involving the DPRK, South Korea, China, Russia, Japan
   and the United States, w hich is aimed at resolving the nuclear issue on
   the Korean Peninsula.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English --
   China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China
   News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   93) Back to Top
   S. Korea Unlikely to Follow Japan's Housing Market Crash: Goldman Sachs -
   Yonhap
   Monday June 14, 2010 04:55:58 GMT
   S. Korea unlikely to follow Japan's housing market crash: Goldman Sachs

   By Kim Young-gyoHONG KONG, June 14 (Yonhap) -- South Korea is not likely
   to undergo a housing market crash similar to the one Japan experienced in
   th e 1990s, global investment bank Goldman Sachs predicted Monday.The
   forecast amid escalating worries that South Korea may suffer a
   Japanese-style real estate deflation due to the possibility that a large
   amount of housing-backed loans could go sour, prompting apartment prices
   to tumble."The housing market in Korea is unlikely to crash as it did in
   Japan, given subdued price-to-income trends in housing, a different macro
   backdrop, low tail-risks in mortgages and prudential regulation," Goldman
   Sachs said in a report.According to a report released by the country's
   central bank last month, a sluggish real estate market sapped household
   lending demand, dropping South Korea's interest rates on bank loans in
   April for the third consecutive month.Earlier in March, a think tank at
   the state-funded Korea Development Bank warned that apartment prices here
   are too high compared with household income, and said the bubble in the
   country's housing market may burst in the near fut ure, just like those in
   Japan and the United States.Golman Sachs, however, admitted that South
   Korea appears to trail Japan by about two decades on demographics and
   per-capita income."Korea resembles Japan in many respects, and in
   particular in terms of its growth performance, main industries, high level
   of savings and demographics. Given these similarities, investors have
   concerns about the risks of a property market collapse and prolonged
   economic stagnation in Korea," it said.The bank forecast stagnation in
   housing prices, rather than a bubble burst, is more likely to occur,
   leading more Koreans to accumulate financial assets in lieu of
   property."Our analysis suggests that Korea's rapidly aging population will
   contribute to a stagnation in housing prices, leading to an accumulation
   of financial assets in lieu of property investments," it said, adding that
   equity holdings have low shares in household portfolios.

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   94) Back to Top
   Scientists To Retrieve Japanese Asteroid Capsule Landed in Australia
   "Scientists scramble for Japanese asteroid capsule" -- AFP headline - AFP
   (North American Service)
   Monday June 14, 2010 02:43:49 GMT
   (Description of Source: Paris AFP (North American Service) in English --
   North American service of the independent French press agency Agence
   France-Presse)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Comme
   rce.

   95) Back to Top
   An Alliance Reconfirmed
   "Viewpoint" column by Kim Jung-wook, the Washington correspondent and
   Translation by the JoongAng Daily staff: "An Alliance Reconfirmed" -
   JoongAng Daily Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 00:48:51 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul JoongAng Daily Online in English -- Website
   of English-language daily which provides English-language summaries and
   full-texts of items published by the major center-right daily JoongAng
   Ilbo, as well as unique reportage; distributed as an insert to the Seoul
   edition of the International Herald Tribune; URL:
   http://joongangdaily.joins.com)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inq uiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   96) Back to Top
   Pan-Arab Editor: Riyadh Will Not Allow Israel Use Its Airspace Against
   Iran
   Commentary by Abd-al-Rahman al-Rashid: "The Saudi Corridor and the Israeli
   Strike" - Al-Sharq al-Awsat Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 16:26:55 GMT
   Saudi Arabia's judgment can be seen in the manner which they have dealt
   with 50 years of regional conflict.Saudi Arabia has always avoided
   becoming embroiled in military confrontations, regardless of the magnitude
   of its political differences (with others).I think that politicians in
   Riyadh are well aware that Iran is no small country, and that both Iran
   and Saudi Arabia have the longest coastlines in the Gulf.They know that
   getting involved in the war by allowing Israel i or even American jets to
   use its airspace would mean Saudi Arabia becoming practically involved in
   a war with Iran.Nobody can predict what would happen after this; Saddam
   Hussein was embroiled in a terrible war with Iran for eight years due to
   his foolishness.The Saudi Arabians are certainly concerned with Iran's
   nuclear project and fear that this is targeting them and the rest of the
   Gulf States; however this suspicion is not enough of a motive to get
   involved in a destructive war of adventure with a country that is three
   times the size of Saudi Arabia.

   (Description of Source: London Al-Sharq al-Awsat Online in English --
   Website of influential London-based pan-Arab Saudi daily; editorial line
   reflects Saudi official stance.URL: http://www.asharq-e.com/ )

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   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   97) Back to Top
   Pan-Arab Editor: 'Illogical' for Saudi Arabia To Allow Israel Use its
   Airspace
   Commentary by Editor in Chief Tariq al-Humayd: "Israel and Passing through
   Saudi Airspace" - Al-Sharq al-Awsat Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 14:51:36 GMT
   (Description of Source: London Al-Sharq al-Awsat Online in English --
   Website of influential London-based pan-Arab Saudi daily; editorial line
   reflects Saudi official stance.URL: http://www.asharq-e.com/ )

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   98) Back to Top
   Macedonian Commentary Sees Israeli Raid on Turkish Ship as 'Tactical
   Blunder'
   Commentary by Edon Qesari: "Nothing new From Eastern Front" - Koha
   Monday June 14, 2010 17:10:20 GMT
   The clash that took place in the Mediterranean waters a few days ago has
   perhaps offered the only episode in the long history of the Israeli-Arab
   conflict in which the Israeli government does not find itself in open
   conflict with international law. Over the last decades the finger was
   pointed at Israel precisely in this direction. There were many arguments
   condemning Israel's indifference to the international law. There was of
   course a repeat of them in the days that followed the clash in the
   vicinity of Israel's territorial waters. According to what is being said
   in the world's main dailies, Israel's armed forces have fallen foul of
   international norms at least on two points: they have attacked a neutral
   ship in international waters and have made use of excessive force (as
   stressed by Sarkozy). The latter point remains to be clarified by
   international courts, but in our comments we will try to understand some
   aspects of international conventions.

   According to the Manual of International Law Applied to Armed Maritime
   Conflicts (codified in 1909 and updated in 1994), legal arguments look
   broad enough. According to the manual, as an enemy of the HAMAS
   organization, the Jewish state has the right to block from the land, the
   Gaza Strip, which is controlled by the above organization. As long as a
   majority of world's states have declared HAMAS a terrorist organization,
   the isolation of Gaza and the blockade laid on it are justified under the
   international law, regardless of the fact that now the entire
   international community has come up against this blockade.

   According to the same manual by 'territorial waters' is meant th e
   maritime area that extends 12 miles beyond the territorial sovereignty.
   Beyond that there is another 12-mile extension (the so-called
   'intermediate zone') within which a state has the right to act according
   to the international law in defense of its interests. Hence, if what the
   witnesses say is true, namely, that the Turkish ship was stopped 68-75
   miles from Israel's shores, the navy of the latter comes under charges of
   violation of international norms. On the other hand, many experts say that
   the right of laying a blockade on an enemy country (in this case, of
   Israel on Gaza) gives Israel the right to stop a ship that is identified
   with its enemy's territory. We may add that the international law
   prohibits actions against neutral merchant, that is, peaceful, ships, but
   from the Israeli side there is the argument that the ways for conveying
   aid to Gaza are internationally known. Why, then, did the Turkish ship
   chose to run the blockade? For the sake of truth, it mus t be said that
   other ships had also run the blockade over the last two years. It remains
   a mystery as to why Israel reacted precisely now and with so much
   violence.

   After all, is it not a right of the Israeli state to use force against a
   ship that tries to run a blockade? The answer seems to be yes, although
   this right has its restrictions. The degree of reaction must be
   commensurate with the degree of aggression. There are many who argue that
   the Israeli commandos responded with bullets to an aggression that, after
   all, was symbolic, that is, carried out with sticks and other objects.
   Still, all things considered, the fact must be told that the Israeli
   military justifies the reaction with the violence that was exercised on
   them by people, who after attacking them with knives, also tried to disarm
   them. There are videos of soldiers thrown overboard and of ship's
   passengers seeking 'martyrdom'.

   Without resorting to further arguments, which may appear ever more
   complex, it can be safely said that the incident will not end with that.
   Many states are hastening to accuse Israel both over the incident
   mentioned above and the violation of the human rights of the Palestinians.
   But media reaction to an incident is one thing, and the legal
   interpretation of it in the international sphere is quite another thing.
   As Peter Pham, a strategic adviser with several European governments and
   also the US administration, said for the Reuters news agency, "while
   waiting for the investigation to be wound up, going by the facts at our
   disposal so far, it seems that Israel has acted in its full right." As for
   human rights, a weighty though rather controversial argument, they must be
   considered from a more realistic standpoint. The UN commission, which
   adopted the resolution against the Jewish state and which proceeded
   precisely from the violation of the human rights of the Palestinians, has
   given rise to many questions. We will sing le out only one: are Cuba, a
   member of this commission, or Iran (which is a candidate for chairing a UN
   commission on women's rights) the right models of respect for human rights
   to criticize Israel?

   Still, apart from these and other arguments, Israel seems to have made a
   big tactical blunder. Even if Jerusalem is found legally not guilty for
   what happened, the political precipitation of the Netanyahu government
   cannot be condoned. In the field of international diplomacy, Israel seems
   to have precipitated those changes in the international relations of which
   its powerful ally, the United States, is so much afraid. The new position
   Turkey is trying to assume must be seen in this light. The Israeli raid on
   a ship under Turkish flag provided for the Ankara government with another
   pretext for it to continue on a road that takes it ever farther from the
   West. That Erdogan is seeking new spaces for his country may be seen in
   the international role Turkey is also tryin g to play with Iran, the
   avowed enemy of both Israel and the United States. Actually it has long
   been aiming to play a dominant part in the Middle East, and it can do only
   that by cooling its relations with Israel. The Israeli raid on a Turkish
   ship only made the choice easier for it. That is why we think that the
   incident did not mark the onset of a new period in the Turkish-Israeli
   alliance (of a few days ago). It was only the more apparent reflection of
   many changes that the Erdogan government was already carrying out. One
   does know, however, what that will lead to. What is sure is the extremely
   difficult position of the Obama administration in the Middle East. It is
   certain that it will pay ever growing attention to future developments in
   the Israeli-Palestinian relations, which means that it will be less
   committed to developments in other parts of the globe. That holds
   especially true for the Balkans in which the Americans have already
   declared they have little interest. That should make the Balkan peoples
   understand certain things. But it is rather hard for one to understand
   what is not in one's favor.

   (Description of Source: Skopje Koha in Albanian -- privately owned daily
   with close ties to opposition Democratic Party of Albanians)

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   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   99) Back to Top
   Kenyan religious leaders rap Biden over remarks on draft constitution -
   KTN Television
   Monday June 14, 2010 08:00:16 GMT
   constitution

   On the evening of 13 June five people were killed and 112 injured in the
   Kenyan capital, Nairobi, after two explosions rippe d through a prayer
   meeting-cum-political rally held to campaign against the proposed new
   constitution for Kenya.Before the attack, said to be grenade explosions,
   Christian religious leaders led thousands of people at the venue of the
   meeting, Uhuru Park, in persuading them to vote No in the referendum
   slated for 4 August 2010.What is commonly known as the No camp, comprising
   some politicians plus the Church in Kenya, have taken issue with some
   articles in the draft. Two of the most controversial issues are on the
   abortion and Islamic courts clauses. The clergy present at the meeting
   decried what they termed the manner in which Kenyans were being urged to
   hurriedly pass the draft constitution.They also took issue with what they
   termed interference by American Vice-President Joe Biden during his recent
   visit to the country, where he urged Kenyans to pass the draft.In a
   meeting with Kenyan leaders on 8 June, Biden promised that "when these
   reforms take place, you will find a completely different atmosphere about
   investment in this country".Lashing out at Biden, pastor Mark Kariuki,
   speaking to the crowd in Kiswahili wondered, "What is in this constitution
   which has attracted the Americans to the extent that an American has come
   here to tell us that should we pass (the draft) we will be given something
   small?"Said Maina Ng'ang'a, another pastor: "The president and the prime
   minister should not think that we are now following them. We have the
   right to say No! We have the right to say No! Say No!", to which the crowd
   responded, "No!".MP William Ruto, a cabinet minister who is against the
   draft and who leads the No campaign told the rally that "On 4 August you
   must say No, so that you can claim this country. And let nobody put in
   doubt that we want a new constitution; we want a new constitution. We want
   a constitution that is going to unify this country... I am proud to be
   part of this thing because I know if God is for us (cheers from crowd) who
   can dare be against us?"(Description of Source: Nairobi KTN Television in
   English -- independent Nairobi TV station with respected news coverage;
   majority of audience is in Nairobi)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   100) Back to Top
   Gcc Chief Says Israel Has No Options After Saudi Smear Campaign Reports
   "Gcc Chief Says Israel Has No Options After Saudi Smear Campaign Reports"
   -- KUNA Headline - KUNA Online
   Friday May 14, 2010 21:27:22 GMT
   RIYADH, May 14 (KUNA) -- Gulf Cooperation Council Secretary
   GeneralAbdulrahman Al-Atiyya on Frida y described reported Israeli
   plannedinternational media and legal campaign against Saudi Arabia as "a
   position thatillustrates political bankruptcy." According to Israeli daily
   Maariv, rightistIsraeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman plans to launch
   a global campaignagainst Saudi Arabia.The campaign, if launched, will
   include the use of various means of leverageand lobbies in the United
   States, Europe and other places around the world,raising select social
   issues in the US Congress, the European Parliament andother venues, a
   public relations campaign and even lodging complaints withinternational
   courts, according to Maariv.In a statement to the press, Al-Atiyya said
   that the plan reveals "a pitifulattempt aimed at covering up facts," and
   an attempt to "avert attention fromIsraeli predicaments brought about as a
   result of continued aggressive andxenophobic practices against
   Palestinians, and which stand against initiativesintended for just and
   compr ehensive peace in the Middle East." Al-Atiyyastressed that Saudi
   Arabia's policies towards Arabs and Muslims are obvious andrespected
   throughout the Arab, Islamic and international communities. He alsosaid
   these policies were "above any taunts or suspicious plans cooked up
   inZionist circles, drowning in a pool of arrogance, which expresses a
   mindsetthat opposes justice, equality and peace." He considered the
   Israeli plans aclear declaration that "proves without a doubt, the
   success, clarity and nobleaims of Saudi Arabia's foreign policy towards
   Arab and Islamic issues." TheArab Peace Initiative has pit the Israelis
   against major challenges afterscoring unprecedented Arab, Islamic and
   international support, he said.It has also forced the Israeli government
   into committing to comprehensivepeace concessions, "which is what makes it
   natural for Israel to fabricatethese crises against Saudi Arabia, which
   has presented a sensible plan on thepeace proc ess and its success, he
   explained.(Description of Source: Kuwait KUNA Online in English --
   Official news agency of the Kuwaiti Government; URL:
   http://www.kuna.net.kw)

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   Commerce.

   101) Back to Top
   Obama Asks Congress To Fund Israel's Rocket Defense System
   "Obama Asks Congress To Fund Israel"s Rocket Defense System" -- KUNA
   Headline - KUNA Online
   Friday May 14, 2010 11:00:56 GMT
   WASHINGTON, May 14 (KUNA) -- US President Barack Obama is seeking
   Congressapproval of USD 205 million to help Israel speed up deployment of
   a new shortrange rocket defense system known as the Iron Dome, it was
   reported here lateThursday.White House Spokesman Tommy Vietor was quoted
   as saying that Obama "recognizesthe threat missiles and rockets fired by
   Hamas and Hezbollah pose to Israelis,and has therefore decided to seek
   funding from Congress to support theproduction of Israel's short range
   rocket defense system called Iron Dome." Heaffirmed that "as the president
   has repeatedly said, our commitment to Israel'ssecurity is unshakable and
   our defense relationship is stronger than ever.""The United States and our
   ally Israel share many of the same securitychallenges, from combating
   terrorism to confronting the threat posed by Iran'snuclear-weapons
   program," Vietor stressed.According to State Department records, US
   military aid to Israel in 2009reached USD 2.55 billion, where this will
   increase to USD three billion in 2012and will total USD 3.15 billion a
   year from 2013 to 2018.(Description of Source: Kuwait KUNA Online in
   English -- Official news agency of the Kuwaiti Government; URL:
   http://www.kuna.net.kw)

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   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   102) Back to Top
   Metro Policeman Faces Charge of Trying to Extort Bribe from US Soccer Fans
   Report by Charl du Plessis: "Cop Fleeces US Tourists" - "Americans Lay
   Corruption Charge over 'Bribe'" - Times Live
   Tuesday June 15, 2010 04:22:04 GMT
   (Description of Source: Johannesburg Times Live in English -- Combined
   website of the credible privately-owned daily and weekly newspapers The
   Times and Sunday Times, with an emphasis on news from South Africa. The
   site also features multimedia and blogs. URL: www.timeslive.co.za)

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   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   103) Back to Top
   Opinion Calls for US President To Provide Proof in MBS Case
   Opinion by Gustavo Mavie: "Questioning the Existence of al Qaeda Training
   Camps in Mozambique - Diario de Mocambique
   Monday June 14, 2010 14:48:42 GMT
   by the South African Sunday newspaper the Sunday Times about the existence
   of al Qaeda training camps in Tete and Nampula, my experience as a
   reporter stopped me suspecting that it could be yet another piece of news
   made up with no other purpose than to harm a country that someone does not
   like.

   Now that I have more facts, I am progressively more convinced that the
   abovementioned news has been made up, and that it is aimed at killing two
   birds with one stone.

   In my view, one of the birds is to associate our country with the great
   soccer world cup festival that is currently grabbing the attention of
   millions of people around the world and thus affect the image that
   Mozambique enjoys abroad, because it is one of the few countries that was
   able to lift itself out of the pit of the destabilizing war into which it
   had been thrown by its enemies.

   Another fact is that it is registering an impressive economic performance,
   at a time when most of the world's countries are sinking in the turbulent
   sea of the world financial crisis.

   For those who do not wish us well, this economic and democratic success of
   ours is making them lose their sleep and is making them green with envy.

   The other bir d that this type of news aims to kill is, without a doubt,
   the World Cup, which this time is being held in neighboring South Africa,
   something that obviously does not please those who have made every effort
   so that our continent will always continue to be seen to belong to
   worthless individuals who only serve as "beast of burden" or to kill each
   other.

   Besides, it makes no sense that the intelligence agency of a country that
   is after al Qaeda, using every method that exists in the world -- in this
   case, the United States -- should discover two of this organization's
   training camps and not take measures to destroy them and eliminate the
   trainers and their trainees, merely limiting itself to publishing the news
   about their alleged discovery.

   Does this make sense?Of course it does not

   Military logic forces me to say that if this NEFA Foundation (an
   anti-terrorism institution set up after the attacks in New York in
   September 2001) had in f act discovered the abovementioned camps in Tete
   and Nampula, it would have at least simultaneously informed the
   governments of the United States, Mozambique, and South Africa, so that
   they could take joint measures to destroy them and subsequently eliminate
   the instructors and potential terrorists.

   Moreover, if the US Government had been told by Congress, as the news in
   the Sunday Times stated, it would have asked the Mozambican Government for
   permission to carry out military action and kill all those who would have
   been there, in one swoop.

   Therefore, the news that would have been published by the Sunday Times
   would have been about the destruction of two training camps and the
   subsequent elimination of their occupants, and not just the revelation of
   their existence.

   Even military operations lay people know that, once you discover the
   presence of an enemy in a certain place, the first thing you do is
   eliminate him before he even knows he has bee n spotted, and only
   afterward do you issue a communique telling the public about the raid and
   its outcome.

   Therefore, you never reveal anything beforehand, because that would be the
   same thing as scaring away the prey, so that it runs off.

   Thus we can conclude that, due to the urgent manner in which the United
   States has tried to eliminate al Qaeda from the planet, if it had found
   its training camps in our country, US President Barack Obama would have
   immediately contacted his Mozambican counterpart, Armando Guebuza, to get
   him to give the "green light" to erase any threat to the Soccer World Cup,
   where players and supporters from the whole world, not just Africa, will
   be present.

   But according to what our President told us, he is unaware of the
   existence of the alleged camps, and so I really have doubts about this
   discovery.

   But would it make sense for the United States to keep a problem like this
   a secret, one that has to d o with its biggest-ever enemy, which is al
   Qaeda?Would it makes sense for its warships, which it keeps in the Indian
   Ocean, to be there just for show and not to launch its guided missiles
   against military targets like these camps of Osama Bin Laden's, which are
   said to exist in the country?

   If we believe this is possible we are really naive.

   What would have been normal would have been for this type of matter to be
   discussed in the greatest secrecy between the leaderships of the three
   countries, and only after their destruction and the death of their
   occupants would it have been revealed to the newspapers, never about its
   discovery.

   Because the news is simply made up, our President and his South African
   counterpart Jacob Zuma were never informed about the discovery of these
   camps, which just shows that this news is purely and simply aimed at
   manipulating those who are more susceptible in Mozambique, and thus
   sullying the image we have all created and have been building up since
   1992, when the savage 16-year war ended.

   The aim of this type of news is to destroy this good image that results
   from our peace efforts, our work toward reconciliation and rebuilding our
   country.

   Mozambique has been in the news more because of good things and not bad,
   which would not be to the liking of those who do not like to see an
   African nation taking positive steps.

   Having said that, I emphasize that when it is said that those who are
   being trained then aim to carry out terrorist attacks during the Soccer
   World Cup, then the aim is to prove that an event of this nature can never
   go smoothly in an African country, which is the same thing as saying in
   Africa.

   Basically, it is aimed at getting the countries whose teams have been
   selected to give up attending the event.This news is definitely aimed at
   sabotaging this World Cup and de-motivating supporters, reducing their
   participation in this great fe stival that will surely be making the
   organizational capability of our Africans more visible.

   Those who write this type of news know that most people do not know that
   the organization of a Soccer World Cup it is not only up to the host
   nation, but up to the whole world, especially when it comes to security.

   This is to say that, after identifying a threat, no matter how small, the
   whole world gets involved so that nothing tragic will occur.

   Having said that, if NEFA had found the abovementioned camps in
   Mozambique, the organization itself and the Washington Government would
   have immediately informed the Mozambican and South African authorities, as
   well as FIFA (International Federation of Association Football) and the
   International Police (Interpol).

   But, according to what both countries' governments said, none of this was
   done.

   Linking these facts, and geared toward the logic of world security, I feel
   obliged to say that this US foundation did not discover any al Qaeda
   training camp in Mozambique, and that if there is any terrorist attack at
   the World Cup, it will certainly have nothing to do with people trained in
   our country.

   And the lack of proof of the charges against Bachir

   Another revelation flawed by a lack of support, or which at least is not
   founded on credible evidence, is the United States' charges brought
   against Mozambican businessman Mohamed Bachir Suleman, whose initials MBS
   form the name of his business conglomerate.

   In my view, this accusation is flawed because it does not make use of
   evidence, which makes one think of what the United States did against the
   now-hanged Saddam Hussein, whom it accused at the time of dealing in
   weapons of mass destruction.

   Like what it did to Hussein, Washington limits itself to accusing the
   Mozambican businessman of being a drug lord, a charge for which there is
   no proof, in the same way that it never provid ed proof against the Iraqi
   leader.

   This leads some to question the material sustainability of this
   accusation.There is no lack of proof, skepticism will prevail, so much so
   because the United States has already proved that it is not infallible.

   The false accusation against Saddam was just one of the other countless
   ones it made.In my view, this charge is based on the same allegations that
   have been made against this Mozambican businessman and others with great
   fortunes.

   It would be a good thing if a superpower like the United States could
   substantiate its accusation with irrefutable facts, so that it does not
   just repeat out loud those accusations that I have already said have
   already been made by many people, who speculate on hearsay... ...

   Personally, I have already heard that there are even clients at MBS stores
   who buy refrigerators, freezers, and TV sets from his stores, and when
   they open them at home they find large quantities o f heavy drugs, and
   that when they return them they were given astronomical amounts of cash to
   keep their mouths shut, making them rich overnight.

   Those who spread these stories about the MBS have never indicated, not
   even from afar, who these clients, made rich by Bachir, may be. They
   simply limit themselves to saying that they have also heard about these
   clients, like those superstitious people who are always saying that in
   such-and- such a place there is great witchdoctor who knows everything and
   can solve everything, including naming those who come to him for
   consultation, without their having identified themselves.

   In order not to make assumptions and to accept the theory as valid, which
   some have already started to defend, that Bachir is in fact being made a
   victim mainly because of his political affinities, just as Saddam was
   sacrificed for refusing to bow down and give his country's oil to the
   United States in Bush's era, Obama will have to show t hat he is different
   from his predecessor and accuse Bachir with proof that all of us can see,
   and not just limit himself to sending them to our government, as his
   country's embassy in Maputo has alleged.

   For his own good, I advise Obama not to believe blindly in the reports
   that are sent to him by his diplomatic agents in Maputo, because some of
   them have already proved that they have a great dose of "Jetism" (meaning
   unclear) and that they spend their time making up reports that do not
   reflect reality.

   Without wanting to be Bachir's lawyer here and now, or solemnly sign that
   he is innocent and is being slandered, I think that for Obama to keep his
   good image and credibility among us Mozambicans, with which we have
   associated him up till now, it is urgent that he provide clear proof.

   Should he not do so, he will be viewed as having made the same faux-pas
   that his predecessor did when he accused Hussein of having weapons of mass
   destruc tion and thus starting a terrible war that ended up killing many
   Iraqi citizens who were innocent, before orchestrating a fictitious trial
   that sentenced him to being hanged on TV for a crime that the United
   States itself would later acknowledged he had not committed.

   (Description of Source: Beira Diario de Mocambique in Portuguese --
   influential independent daily with limited circulation mostly available in
   the bigger cities, carries reporting on political, social and economic
   issues and commentary on latest developments)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   104) Back to Top
   South African 2010 Soccer World Cup Media Highlights 13-14 Jun 10
   Corrected version: Replacing text wi th reedited version - South Africa --
   OSC Summary
   Monday June 14, 2010 08:16:29 GMT
   The following is a selection of World Cup reporting highlights from the
   South African media on 13-14 June.

   Click here to view the full document.

   Table of Contents

   1. SECURITY. 1

   RSA: Police Clash With 'Hundreds' of Stewards at Durban Stadium Over
   Wages. 1

   Police Pass First 'Major' Security Test With Peaceful US, Argentina Games.
   2

   Police Chief Says No 'Tangible Evidence' of Xenophobic Violence After
   World Cup. 2

   Expert Commends 'Extremely Impressive' Security Measures. 2

   Durban Trains Guides To Patrol Beaches for Criminals, Traffickers. 3

   2. LOGISTICS. 3

   Budget Backpacking Lodges Fully Booked as Fans Look for Cheaper Options. 3

   Journalists Unharmed After 'Emergency Landing' at Lanseria Airport 3

   Transport Problem s Affecting Attendance. 4

   3. BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS. 4

   South Africans Say World Cup 'Killing' Local Businesses. 4

   4. VIDEO LIBRARY.. 4

   Video Shows Police Dispersing Stadium Workers in Durban. 5

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   105) Back to Top
   South African 2010 Soccer World Cup Media Highlights 13-14 Jun 10 - South
   Africa -- OSC Summary
   Monday June 14, 2010 07:45:33 GMT
   Click here to view the full document.

   Table of Contents

   1. SECURITY.. 1

   RSA: Police Clash With 'Hundreds' of Stewards at Durban Stadium Over
   Wages. 1

   Police Pass First 'Major' Security Test With Peaceful US, Argentina Games.
   2

   Police Chief Says No 'Tangible Evidence' of Xenophobic Violence After
   World Cup. 2

   Expert Commends 'Extremely Impressive' Security Measures. 2

   Durban Trains Guides To Patrol Beaches for Criminals, Traffickers. 3

   2. LOGISTICS. 3

   Budget Backpacking Lodges Fully Booked as Fans Look for Cheaper Options. 3

   Journalists Unharmed After 'Emergency Landing' at Lanseria Airport 3

   Transport Problems Affecting Attendance. 4

   3. BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS. 4

   South Africans Say World Cup 'Killing' Local Businesses. 4

   4. VIDEO LIBRARY.. 4

   Video Shows Police Dispersing Stadium Workers in Durban. 5

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   &lt; a name="t106"&gt;106) Back to Top
   Nothing Could Dampen Spirits of Red Devils - JoongAng Daily Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 00:37:49 GMT
   (JOONGANG ILBO) - Pouring rain couldn't keep Korean football fans from
   crowding the streets to cheer for the national team's first-round World
   Cup match against Greece on Saturday.

   Police estimated that around 47,000 Red Devils packed the grounds of Seoul
   Plaza - beginning in the gray drizzle at 3 p.m. - and another 200,000
   people visited 45 different cheering areas around the city.But the noise
   was loudest around Seoul Plaza, the must-go spot for die-hard fans."I
   heard many people were planning on going to COEX in southern Seoul for
   cheering this time. But I think no place could beat Seoul Plaza for the
   best cheering experience," said 18-year-old Kim Eun-ji, who arrive d early
   enough to grab a seat right in front of the screen.Three mammoth screens
   were set up at different angles in the square to give the maximum number
   of spectators a good view of the match.The decibel level started to rise
   as soon as M.C. Kim Han-suk took the microphone, and soon the crowd was
   singing the team songs they've had memorized since 2002 (a new song
   written for this year's Cup had far fewer people chanting along).As the
   game went into the second half with Korea ahead, the screaming got
   louder."I knew Park Ji-sung would make a history. He is a victory maker!"
   said 45-year-old Kim Yong-doo as he watched the team captain drive a goal
   into the net.Even some expats got caught up in the full force of Korea's
   cheering culture."It's my first time going out to cheer for Korea, and I'm
   very excited because I've seen pictures of Koreans cheering in previous
   World Cups. Even though it's raining today, I wanted to be at the first
   game," said David Wesco tt, an English teacher from the United
   States."It's wonderful to be in a country that's so passionate about
   soccer," added Chris Foss, who also came out in the storm to cheer for
   Korean team in 2006.Many Korean fans with young children picked the Seoul
   World Cup Stadium as the best cheering site."Here I can cheer for the team
   as crazily as I want and still avoid getting wet. Because I wanted to come
   out with my children, having assigned seats were a major factor that made
   me decide to come here," said Min Jae-du, who was with his wife and their
   two small children.Although a plan to set up an outdoor screen in front of
   the stadium was cancelled because of the heavy rain, the weather made no
   difference to the frenzied fans."I consider the raindrops I get on my
   shoulder the sweat from players from South Africa," said 25-year-old Ryu
   Hyun-ji.The weather, in fact, was no drawback for people sporting new and
   eye-catching fashions to support their team . Many fans sported red rain
   coats, and others decorated red umbrellas with plastic devils' horns or a
   soccer ball spirals. And to keep their face-paintings from being washed
   away by the rain, many came prepared to cover up with Korean
   flags.*Interns Ginny Kim and Angela Park contributed to this
   article.(Description of Source: Seoul JoongAng Daily Online in English --
   Website of English-language daily which provides English-language
   summaries and full-texts of items published by the major center-right
   daily JoongAng Ilbo, as well as unique reportage; distributed as an insert
   to the Seoul edition of the International Herald Tribune; URL:
   http://joongangdaily.joins.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   107) Back to Top
   Thai Column Urges ASEAN Rights Body To Join Probe Panel on 19 May
   Crackdown
   Commentary by Sarinna Areethamsirikul: "The Thai Political Crisis and the
   Future of ASEAN" - The Nation Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 06:27:54 GMT
   From March to May, the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship, or
   the red shirts, returned to the streets, gathering for its biggest
   demonstration and seizing several strategic sections of Bangkok. Then the
   crackdowns left 91 people dead and more than 1,800 injured.The political
   unrest and violence in Bangkok are starkly inimical to the development of
   Thai democracy and have blemished the country's regional and international
   reputation.Then Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva was urged by the United
   Nations, European Union, United States, and national and international
   media to set up an independent committee to i nvestigate recent
   events.Thailand's UN envoy Sihasak Phuangketkeow responded to the UN,
   saying that "the Thai government deeply regrets the loss of lives and
   injuries that occurred, and is committed to bring those responsible to
   account". However, at home the government had no words of condolences to
   share with Thais, but overstepped them to impose its roadmap for national
   reconciliation.A few days ago, the Abhisit government finally set up the
   panel. However, its credibility as an independent body is barely
   acceptable in the eyes of some Thais, especially among the red shirts.Kavi
   Chongkittavorn, The Nation's columnist, suggested recently that Abhisit's
   government should invite the Asean Intergovernmental Commission on Human
   Rights (AICHR) to join or observe the truth-seeking team, although the
   AICHR is not equipped with teeth.Long-term political instability in
   Thailand could lash regional security in Southeast Asia. Singapore is
   afraid that the Thai political cri sis can hinder economic growth and
   deter foreign investment in the region, since Asean has set its sights on
   becoming a regional production network.The Asean chairman in Hanoi issued
   a unified statement on the Thai political crisis, expressing concern and
   support for Thailand.But can't Asean do more than that?In 2008, the
   members ratified the Asean Charter after 40 years of its inception in
   1967, pledging to create a regional community by 2015. Under the Charter,
   the 10 Asean members endorsed the new regional values of democracy and
   human rights while strongly emphasising its long-standing principle of
   non-interference.Political variegation in Asean - ranging from absolute
   monarchy in Brunei to presidential democracy in Indonesia - allows Asean
   to accept a vague charter with lots of room for interpretation. The word
   "democracy" in the Charter is left undefined while the boundaries of the
   non-interference policy are blurred.What we are seeing here is a tug of
   war be tween the cast-iron principle of the so-called Asean Way -
   referring to non-interference and consultation - and the new regional
   values of democracy and human rights. This often leads to the victory of
   the non-interference policy over the values of human rights and
   democracy.Last October the AICHR was established, but due to its mandate
   to only promote, not protect, human rights, it has no power to investigate
   any cases of human rights violations.So, what can we expect from Asean in
   managing political crises? The candid answer is not much - probably only
   political statements.However, Asean finally has its own human rights
   organ. I agree with Kavi. The AICHR should join the probe team. This is
   not only a chance for Thailand to regain its regional credibility but also
   for Asean to prove its significance by providing expertise in conflict
   management. I guess Asean does not want to be just a paper tiger, but a
   strong regional community.Sarinna Areethamsirikul lectures at Naresua n
   University's Bangkok campus.

   (Description of Source: Bangkok The Nation Online in English -- Website of
   a daily newspaper with "a firm focus on in-depth business and political
   coverage." Widely read by the Thai elite. Audited hardcopy circulation of
   60,000 as of 2009. URL: http://www.nationmultimedia.com.)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   108) Back to Top
   Editorial Urges Thais To Recognize 'Moral Obligations' in Middle East
   Conflict
   Editorial: "Time We Grasped Palestinian Issue" - The Nation Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 06:20:52 GMT
   Thais must recognise we have moral obligations in the Middle EastThe issue
   of Palestine and Palestinian statehood will eventually hit Bangkok's front
   door and it's best to take up the debate now and prepare our country for
   it. Along the way, the government could be genuinely scoring political
   points with the Malay Muslims in the deep South, instead of insulting
   their intelligence by bringing foreign clerics who know nothing about the
   historical sentiment of the region and the mistrust.As a member of the UN
   Human Rights Council, Bangkok should at least feel it has a moral
   obligation to the people in Israel and Palestine.Let's hope Thailand is
   not just wanting a seat on the council to boost its sagging image,
   following days of clashes with the anti-government red-shirt protesters
   that left 89 dead and 1800 injured.For Muslims worldwide, Palestine is
   heart of their heart, and the plight of the people there cannot be
   forgotten.Can Thailand afford to turn a blind eye to the conflict in
   Palestine and continue its relationship with Israel? Probably.Otherwise,
   it could choose to do something about it now and be respected in the
   international community and show the world that this Buddhist kingdom is a
   responsible nation, respecting the concerns of its Muslim citizens, and
   one that doesn't bend whenever or wherever the wind blows.Internationally,
   the climate for such discussion is conducive. In Europe, foreign ministers
   are meeting this week to discuss proposals from Spain for lifting Israel's
   blockade of the Gaza Strip - the latest European Union (EU) attempt to
   forge an effective policy following international outrage over the killing
   of nine Turkish activists on board a "freedom flotilla'.All eyes are on
   Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, who proposed a unilateral
   declaration of a Palestinian state by 2011.He wants to start off with
   building effective police and paramilitary units and transparent
   institutions - and then go after international recognition.This approach
   is drastically different to the late Yasser Arafat who toyed with both
   diplomacy and militancy to get recognition before building institutions
   for Palestine's statehood.Fayyad's plan should be taken seriously because
   it would not be good only for Israel and the US, but for moderate Arabs as
   well.A successful Fayyad plan would not only replace Israeli occupation of
   the West Bank with an independent Palestinian state, it would also deny
   Iran an entry point into Palestinian mainstream politics as the
   Palestinians themselves would be dictating the course of their own
   destiny. Moreover, it would also deny the hardline and some Islamist
   groups who somehow think Israel will implode under the current course of
   events.Israel has demonstrated it doesn't give a hoot to global sentiment,
   partly because it knows it has the backing of the Jewish community in the
   US with a powerful lobbying machine at its disposal.But a successful and
   independent Palestine could also mean independence fro m countries like
   Iran, together with their Shiite proxies, such as Hezbollah, in southern
   Lebanon. Both have vowed to wipe the Jewish state from the world map.
   Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu understands this very well and
   that's why he supports the two-state solution. Unfortunately, he doesn't
   have the courage to stand up to his coalition partners, who think Israel
   can continue to be a Jewish state, a democratic nation and a country that
   continues to illegally occupy other people's territory.If Israel chooses
   to remain a democratic country, then it must treat the Palestinians as
   equal citizens. But what happens when the Palestinian and Arab populations
   outnumber the Jewish population? Think South Africa.Israel can be Jewish
   and democratic - but that means it must return the occupied territory to
   the people it dominates.Something's got to give.

   (Description of Source: Bangkok The Nation Online in English -- Website of
   a daily newspaper with "a firm focu s on in-depth business and political
   coverage." Widely read by the Thai elite. Audited hardcopy circulation of
   60,000 as of 2009. URL: http://www.nationmultimedia.com.)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   109) Back to Top
   Thai Editorial Asks UN To Dissuade Iran From Developing Nuclear Weapons
   Editorial: "Iran Dismisses UN Sanctions" - Bangkok Post Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 05:08:04 GMT
   The United Nations took the correct step last week in condemning Iran once
   again for its secret nuclear programme. Some credit is due to the five UN
   nuclear powers plus Germany for working towa rds a common stand on the
   issue. Iran has bamboozled and blustered its way through a project to
   achieve nuclear power without adhering to either the spirit or the letter
   of international law. It is telling that nations with such a wide range of
   opinions and policies were able to come to the unique conclusion that Iran
   is a serial offender that deserves punishment.The vote by the Security
   Council was the fourth UN action against Iran in as many years. It
   obligated UN members to issue sanctions against the Teheran government and
   certain parts of its regime, specifically the Republican Guards. This
   group is the elite spearhead of both the development and enforcement of
   Iranian law-breaking and defiance. It is no accident that the Republican
   Guards also head the brutal suppression of the Iranian
   opposition.Condemnation of the Teheran regime is welcome, that is
   President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and supporters, including the Supreme Leader
   Ayatollah Khamanei. But the self-congratulati ons of the move by its chief
   sponsors are certainly early and perhaps misguided. The United States in
   particular has pushed hard for such sanctions against Iran, but President
   Barack Obama appears to have lost the plot for the moment at least, and
   his allies in Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany have not clearly
   dissented.In his reaction to the successful vote in the UN Security
   Council, Mr Obama congratulated the policy. He said that because of the UN
   vote, "Iran will find itself more isolated". He repeated that claim in
   noting that Iran has slapped aside his offer of direct talks, which would
   have reduced Teheran's isolation.But the UN vote was not highly debated
   and passed in order to isolate Iran. The purpose of sanctions must be to
   dissuade Iran from developing nuclear weapons that will destabilise the
   Mideast and therefore the peace of the world. There is already new
   evidence that Mr Obama's claim of isolating Iran is wrong, and further
   that the UN vo te has, if anything, stiffened Mr Ahmadinejad's
   ill-considered goal of stepping up his secret nuclear project. Since no
   one believes the Iranian president's claim that he only wants nuclear
   power to light his cities, it seems clear that the UN sanctions have not
   worked.Mr Obama may not have noted that his Iranian counterpart last week
   was in China -- a country which has gone along with the UN sanctions but
   has barely put any into action. His Chinese hosts did not complain that Mr
   Ahmadinejad used their country to sneer at Mr Obama personally. He also
   said the UN resolution would be thrown "in the waste bin" as his regime
   continues its programme of nuclear enrichment. As the UN debated the
   sanctions, he was meeting in Teheran with the leaders of Brazil and, more
   worrying still, Turkey.Shunned by Europe and effectively ignored by Mr
   Obama's administration, Turkey has edged closer to Teheran. This is why
   the Arab states and Israel, for different reasons, are so concer ned about
   the rise of Iran.Far from being isolated, Mr Ahmedinejad has put together
   a coalition of rogues and rogue-followers. That should worry anyone
   concerned about the nuclear programme of Iran, designed to bring nuclear
   weapons to the Middle East.

   (Description of Source: Bangkok Bangkok Post Online in English -- Website
   of a daily newspaper widely read by the foreign community in Thailand;
   provides good coverage on Indochina. Audited hardcopy circulation of
   83,000 as of 2009. URL: http://www.bangkokpost.com.)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   110) Back to Top
   Thai Envoy Asks US To Refrain From Mediating in Talks With Red-Shirt
   Protestors
   Unattributed report: "Th ai Envoy Asks US To Steer Clear of Mediation" -
   Bangkok Post Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 03:01:00 GMT
   A special envoy from Thailand has asked the US to refrain from trying to
   mediate in the wake of bloody street protests.Prime Minister Abhisit
   Vejjajiva dispatched Kiat Sittheeamorn, president of the Thailand Trade
   Representative Office, to Washington on Friday to make the case that the
   red shirt protesters who occupied central Bangkok for weeks included armed
   and Marxist elements.While US support of the government's reconciliation
   plan was welcome, further US involvement in the dispute with the red
   shirts might not produce the desired results.Mr Kiat, who met members of
   Congress and President Barack Obama's administration, said the government
   welcomed US suggestions but was pursuing its own reconciliation plan."We
   ourselves also see some difficulties in negotiating and discuss ing with
   the red shirts," Mr Kiat said. "If the US extends a helping hand, I don't
   know if it will have different results. "There is also the risk that it
   might complicate the issue even further," said Mr Kiat.Mr Kiat recalled
   Thailand's reaction to the Sept 11, 2001, attacks when "our friends were
   in trouble". "Did we have concern that from now on we should advise our
   people not to come to the United States? Are we concerned that the United
   States government cannot handle the situation? Certainly not," he said."We
   always respect the decisions of any government; it's their right. "But
   obviously it would be nice to see that . . . when your friends are in
   difficulties, you get all the support you can," he said.The army broke up
   the red shirt rally on May 19 after weeks of protracted negotiations broke
   down. The clashes left 89 people dead.Scot Marciel, a deputy of Kurt
   Campbell, the assistant secretary of state for Ea st Asia, told Congress
   that the United States has engaged all sides in Thailand and supported Mr
   Abhisit's plan for reconciliation. "The United States can be a source of
   support as the Thais work to resolve the issues that still divide them,
   but it is the Thai people themselves who must make the difficult choices
   on how to proceed," Mr Marciel said.The reconciliation plan includes early
   elections, although Mr Kiat said they were unlikely to be held this
   year.Mr Marciel admitted that in 25 years working on Southeast Asia, "I'm
   not sure I've encountered a situation as complex as the Thai one in terms
   of trying to understand the politics".Mr Kiat said that some red shirts
   had legitimate grievances, but they did not constitute a straightforward
   demonstration as they included armed groups and Marxist-Leninist
   ideologists.Senator Jim Webb, who heads the Foreign Relations subcommittee
   on East Asia, recently visited Thailand and agreed that aspects of the red
   shi rts were "classic Marxist". "You had the incitement of people based on
   poor versus the rich in a country that has made enormous advances over the
   last 30 years," he said.

   (Description of Source: Bangkok Bangkok Post Online in English -- Website
   of a daily newspaper widely read by the foreign community in Thailand;
   provides good coverage on Indochina. Audited hardcopy circulation of
   83,000 as of 2009. URL: http://www.bangkokpost.com.)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   111) Back to Top
   Recommendations for Malaysia To Improve Human Trafficking Enforcement
   BERNAMA report from the "General" page: "Several Recommendations For
   Malaysia To Impro ve Human Trafficking Actions" - BERNAMA Online
   Tuesday June 15, 2010 02:49:05 GMT
   KUALA LUMPUR, June 14 (Bernama) -- The U.S. Department of State, which has
   upgraded Malaysia from Tier 3 to Tier 2 Watch List in Trafficking in
   Persons Report (TIP) 2010, is urging Malaysia to build on initial law
   enforcement actions under the Trafficking in Persons Act, particularly
   relating to labour trafficking.

   It recommends that Malaysia apply stringent criminal penalties on those
   involved in fraudulent labour recruitment or exploitation of forced
   labour.

   Releasing the Trafficking in Persons Report 2010 posted on its website on
   Monday, it also calls on Malaysia to increase efforts to prosecute and
   convict public officials who profit from or are involved in trafficking or
   who exploit victims.

   The report also recommends that Malaysia develop and implement procedures
   to identify labour trafficking victims among vulnerable groups, such as
   migrant workers and refer them to available protection services.

   The report calls on Malaysia to ensure that victims of trafficking are not
   threatened or otherwise punished for crimes committed as a result of being
   trafficked.

   It proposes that Malaysia re-negotiate MoUs with source countries to
   incorporate victim protection and revoke passport or travel document
   confiscation.

   It suggests that Malaysia increase cooperation with non-governmental
   organisations (NGOs) to improve victim protection efforts, including in
   shelters, for trafficking victims.

   It also suggests that Malaysia continue to expand the training of
   officials on effective handling of sex and labour trafficking cases, with
   particular emphasis on victim protection, and continue and expand a
   comprehensive and visible anti-trafficking awareness campaign to encompass
   both labour and sex trafficking.

   The TIP Report ranks c ountries based on their level of compliance on
   established minimum standards for the elimination of human trafficking.

   Tier 1 countries are for governments that fully comply with minimum
   standards of the Trafficking Victims' Protection Act (TVPA).

   Tier 2 countries are for governments that do not fully comply with the
   minimum standards but are making significant efforts to comply.

   The Tier 2 Watch List is for governments that do not fully comply with the
   TVPA's minimum standards, but are making significant efforts to bring
   themselves into compliance with those standards, and:

   a) the absolute number of victims of severe forms of trafficking is very
   significant or is significantly increasing;

   b) there is a failure to provide evidence of increasing efforts to combat
   severe forms of trafficking in persons from the previous year; or,

   c) the determination that a country is making significant efforts to bring
   themselves into compliance with minimum standards is based on commitments
   by the country to take additional future steps over the next year.

   Tier 3 countries are for governments that do not fully comply with the
   minimum standards and are not making significant efforts to do so.

   The report says the Malaysian government does not fully comply with the
   minimum standards for the elimination of trafficking, but is making
   significant efforts to do so.

   "Because the assessment that the government has made significant efforts
   is based in part on its commitment to undertake actions over the coming
   year - notably greater implementation of Malaysia's anti-trafficking law
   against labour trafficking - Malaysia is placed on the Tier 2 Watch List,"
   it says.

   The report says the Malaysian government has shown greater commitment to
   address human trafficking that is expected to lead to increasing
   investigations and prosecutions of labour trafficking offences and
   identification of labour tr afficking victims, increasing efforts to
   prosecute trafficking-related corruption by government officials and
   greater collaboration with NGOs and international organisations to improve
   victim services in government shelters.

   During the reporting period, senior government officials, including the
   prime minister, publicly acknowledged Malaysia's human trafficking
   problem.

   The report says the government has also increased its investigations into
   trafficking cases and filed an increased number of criminal charges
   against traffickers, significantly expanded training of officials on the
   2007 anti-trafficking law, conducted a public awareness campaign on human
   trafficking, opened three more shelters for trafficking victims, and
   launched a five-year national action plan on human trafficking.

   "Nevertheless, these early efforts will require continued attention, as
   there are many serious concerns remaining regarding trafficking in
   Malaysia, including the deten tion of trafficking victims in government
   facilities," it says.

   The report says the Malaysian government made some progress in law
   enforcement efforts against sex trafficking during the reporting period,
   and limited progress in prosecuting and convicting offenders of labour
   trafficking.

   Malaysian law prohibits all forms of human trafficking through its 2007
   anti-trafficking law, which prescribes penalties that commensurate with
   those for other serious offences, such as rape.

   During the reporting period, the government convicted three sex
   trafficking offenders and reported initiating 180 trafficking-related
   investigations and filing 123 charges against 69 individuals, though it is
   unclear how many of these cases were for actual trafficking, it says.

   The report says the government made minimal progress in protecting victims
   of trafficking during the reporting period.

   "Efforts to identify and protect both sex and labour trafficking v ictims
   remained inadequate overall. The government did not report the
   identification of any Malaysian victims of trafficking," it says.

   The report notes that the Ministry of Women, Family and Community
   Development continued to run two "shelters" for women and children and
   opened a third in July 2009, which detained suspected and confirmed
   foreign sex trafficking victims involuntarily for 90 days until they were
   deported to their home countries, per Malaysian law.

   During the reporting period, the government also opened its first two
   shelters designed to house male victims of trafficking, although these
   shelters also detained victims involuntarily until they were deported, it
   says.

   According to the report, during the reporting period, 139 women and
   children were certified as victims and detained in the shelters.

   An additional 232 individuals were given initial protective orders but
   were ultimately determined by the government to not b e victims of
   trafficking and were deported, though the officials acknowledged that some
   of these might have been trafficking victims who were reluctant to
   cooperate with law enforcement proceedings, it says.

   The report also notes during the year, the government reportedly made some
   improvement in its screening to identify individuals possessing UNHCR
   cards or possessing traits of trafficking victims in order to separate
   them from the illegal migrants.

   The report says the anti-trafficking law provides immunity to trafficking
   victims for immigration offences such as illegal entry, unlawful presence
   and possession of false travel documents, but victims continue to be
   detained and deported as they would be if they were arrested for illegal
   immigration.

   -- BERNAMA

   (Description of Source: Kuala Lumpur BERNAMA Online in English -- Website
   Malaysia's state-controlled news agency. Known for in-depth coverage of
   national and international political issues; URL: http://www.bernama.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   112) Back to Top
   Malaysia Chinese Press 12-14 Jun 10
   The following lists selected reports carried in Malaysia's Chinese press
   on 12-14 Jun 10. To request additional processing, please contact OSC at
   (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735. - Malaysia -- OSC
   Summary
   Monday June 14, 2010 13:15:58 GMT
   2. Interview with China's Department of Asia-Pacific Studies, Shanghai
   Institute for International Studies Director Ma Ying by Chua See Keat
   entitled " Ma Ying Urges ASEAN To Strengthen Power To Play Balancing Role
   Among Major Powers in Region." In this interview, Professor Ma says that
   by highlighting its stand on South China Sea issue at Singapore's Asia
   Security Conference, it is clear that the United States wants to maintain
   its traditional role to lead in Asia. However, Ma said that ASEAN had
   adopted an open policy and China and the United States must coexist with
   ASEAN. (p 26; 800 words, 14 June)

   3. Report by Pang Wing Sin entitled "Pan Malaysian Islamic Party To
   Strengthen Cooperation with Other Pakatan Rakyat Parties." The report says
   that through the 56th Pan Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) Annual General
   Assembly, held during the weekend, it is clear that the PAS now
   understands that in order to become a ruling party, it needs the support
   of multiethnic community. The PAS is now moving closer toward this goal by
   upgrading the non-Malay support club as one of the political wings of the
   PAS parent body. (p11; 800 words 12 June)

   4. Unattributed report entitled "PAS President Hadi Awnag: PAS Not To Hold
   Talk With United Malays National Organization." In Kota Bharu, the PAS
   President said that the opposition alliance Pakatan Rakyat had its own
   principle regarding the running of government. There will not be any
   PAS-United Malays National Organization (UMNO) dialogue in the future. (p
   08; 500 words, 15 June) Petaling Jaya Nanyang Siang Pau in Chinese -- One
   of Malaysia's oldest Chinese dailies. Provides wide coverage of both
   domestic and international news. As Per the Audit Bureau of Circulations
   data, the Nanyang Siang Pau has a circulation of 114,049. It was acquired
   by timber tycoon Tiong Hiew King in 2007. Prior to 2007, it was owned by
   the ruling coalition component party Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA).

   5. Interview with Election Chairman Abdul Aziz by Yet Chong Jian entitled
   " Abdul Aziz: Rezoning Boundaries of Electoral Constituencies To Face
   Resistance." In this interview, Election Com mission (EC) chairman Abdul
   Aziz talks about his plan and resistance as EC plans to carry out the
   rezoning of constituency exercise in March next year. (A3; 1,500 words, 14
   June)

   6. Article by Zhang Chin Wei entitled "China-US-South Korea-North Korea
   Relationship in Post-Cheonan Incident Era." This article by China Affairs
   commentator says that in dealing with the Korean Peninsula issue, China
   will not give up North Korea as a buffer zone for its country. (p A10; 750
   words, 13 June)

   7. Article by Qiu Zhenhai entitled "China's Current Military Situation as
   Viewed Through Shangri-La Dialogue. Part Two." This article by current
   affairs commentator of Phoenix TV opines that the arms sale to Taiwan, as
   expressed b y China and the United States at the Dialogue, is not the real
   conflict between the two countries. The real problem is that both China
   and the United States want to lead in the Asian region. (p 11; 400 words,
   12 June) Kuala Lumpur Orien tal Daily News in Chinese -- One of the few
   remaining Chinese dailies not under control of timber tycoon Tiong Hiew
   King. Provides independent views on domestic political issues and has
   emerged as one of the strongest critics of the government. As Per the
   Audit Bureau of Circulations data, the Oriental Daily News has a
   circulation of 102,802

   8. Report by Nam Zhong Hwa entitled "Malaysian Air Force Facing Difficulty
   in Sustaining High Maintenance Cost of Military Aircrafts." The report
   says that when Malaysian Air Force Chief General Datuk Sri Rodzali
   accepted interview with some local press in conjunction with the 52nd
   anniversary of the Air Force, Rodzali not only exposed the embarrassing
   scandal of stolen F-5E fight jet engine to the general public, he also
   revealed that the Royal Malaysian Air Force was finding it difficult to
   handle the expensive maintenance cost of the MiG-29 N. This report also
   cites the March issue of the Air and Space Magazine that c overs a report
   that has shown that in Malaysia's military exercise with the US navy, the
   US F/A 18 D has shown superiority over MiG-29N. (p MG 8, MG9; 3,000 words,
   14 June) China Press in Chinese -- Carries general domestic and political
   news. Along with the sister publication Nanyang Siang Pau, it came under
   timber tycoon Tiong Hiew King's media empire in 2007. As Per the Audit
   Bureau of Circulations data, the China Press has a circulation of
   231,539.As per the Bureau of Circulations data, the Oriental Daily News
   has a circulation of 102,802.

   Negative Selection Penang Kwong Wah Jit Poh in Chinese -- Oldest Chinese
   daily in Malaysia. Focuses mainly on news from northern peninsular
   Malaysia. Along with the Oriental Daily News, it is one of the few Chinese
   dailies not under timber tycoon Tiong Hiew King's control. As Per the
   Audit Bureau of Circulations data, the Kwong Wah Jit Poh has a circulation
   of 71,350.

   Negative Selection Petaling Jaya Malaysiakini in Chine se --
   Chinese-language version of the leading alternative online news portal
   owned by Mkini Dotcom. Offers independent news and views, focusing mainly
   on political issues. Often features exclusive interviews with leading
   opposition and government figures. Exact readership unknown; URL:
   http://www.malaysiakini.com

   Negative Selection

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   113) Back to Top
   Malaysia Rises to Tier 2 of US Trafficking in Persons Report
   BERNAMA report from the "General" page: "Malaysia Rises To Tier 2 Of
   Trafficking In Persons Report" - BERNAMA Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 09:32:41 GMT
   KUALA LUMPUR, June 14 (Bernama) -- Malaysia has risen to Tier 2 of
   Trafficking in Persons Report (TIP) 2010 released by the United States
   Department of State.

   Home Minister Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Tun Hussein told Dewan Rakyat on
   Monday he was informed of this via a letter from the United States embassy
   this morning.

   "This is in recognition of the Anti-Human Trafficking Act 2007, creation
   of Anti-Human Trafficking Council and government action to address the
   issue," he told reporters at parliament lobby.

   Malaysia dropped from Tier 2 to Tier 3 according to TIP Report 2009 issued
   on June 16 last year.

   The TIP Report ranks countries based on their level of compliance on
   established minimum standards for the elimination of human trafficking.

   Tier 1 countries are for governments that fully comply with minimum
   standards of the Trafficking Victims' Protection Act (TVPA).

   Tier 2 countries for governments that not fully comply with the minimum
   standards but are making significant efforts to comply.

   Tier 3 countries are for governments that do not fully comply with the
   minimum standards and are not making significant efforts to do so.

   Earlier, replying to a question by Dr Tan Seng Giaw (DAP-Kepong),
   Hishammuddin said 1,447 people were given interim protection order (IPO)
   under Section 44 (2) of Anti-Human Trafficking Act 2007 from Feb 28-May
   30.

   "Of the number, 338 were identified as victims of human trafficking and
   given protection order (PO) under Section 51(3) of the same act," he said.

   Tan wanted to know problems faced by the government in tackling the issue
   and the number of human trafficking victims traced.

   The government faced many challenges in efforts to check human trafficking
   as it involved transborder crimes with links to prostitution, drug
   trafficking and money laundering.

   "Most victims entered this country as tourists but later got involved with
   human trafficking syndicates. Lack of public cooperation to provide
   information and threats by syndicates made victims scared to make
   reports."

   Hishammuddin said internal and external factors also led to the prolonged
   situation.

   "Transnational crimes occur in most countries including developed ones as
   it give a high return of US$38 billion annually.

   "Malaysia's rapidly growing economy attract foreigners to come here in
   search of jobs."

   He said the government had implemented a mechanism to check crimes but
   lack of will on the part of source countries caused many people to fall
   prey to syndicate members.

   -- BERNAMA

   (Description of Source: Kuala Lumpur BERNAMA Online in English -- Website
   Malaysia's state-controlled news agency. Known for in-depth coverage of
   national and international political issues; URL: http://www.bernama.com)

   Material in the World News Connection i s generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   114) Back to Top
   Report Says Kingpin Call Unsurprising, Drug Trafficking Increasing
   Report by Paul Fauvet: "Revisiting Recent History" - Agencia Informacao
   Mocambique
   Monday June 14, 2010 15:45:26 GMT
   Yet the American move against an alleged Mozambican drugs "kingpin" should
   have come as no surprise.Since the mid-1990s, Mozambique has been used as
   a corridor by drugs traffickers, but to date no key figure in the
   trafficking has ever been convicted.

   Large scale drug seizures have been made.Thus in 1995, the police seized
   40 tonnes of hashish being carried across Maputo in two trucks.The
   investigations petered out, and the only person ever jailed in connection
   with this haul was a driver, Samssudine Satar.

   Also in 1995, a laboratory producing the drug mandrax was discovered in
   the Trevo neighbourhood in the southern city of Matola.The people working
   there set it on fire, but this attempt to destroy the evidence was
   botched, and the police concluded that the equipment there was for the
   mass production of mandrax, a drug for which a sizeable market exists in
   South Africa.

   The ten Asian workers arrested in Trevo, mostly recruited off the streets
   of Bombay, were released by the Maputo provincial attorney, Luis Muthisse,
   even though a judge had refused to grant them bail.The intervention of
   Muthisse (who lost his job over the affair) was one of many indications of
   high level collusion with traffickers.

   The ten Asians, although they were penniless, were able to hire the
   services of a top lawyer, Maximo Dias, who refused to tell repo rters who
   was paying him.Coincidentally, Dias is now the lawyer for Mohamed Bachir
   Suleman.

   The mandrax equipment had been imported via the fishing company
   Afropesca.The Afropesca managing director, Spanish businessman Luis da
   Costa Virott, was arrested, on suspicion of trafficking Pakistani hashish
   to Mozambique.Like the ten Asians, he was mysteriously released from
   custody, after the intervention of a high powered Portuguese lawyer.The
   release was conditional on Virott staying in the country - but a few days
   later he was on a plane heading for Lisbon and no attempt was made to stop
   him.

   In August 1997, 12 tonnes of hashish was seized from a hideout in
   Quissanga, in the northern province of Cabo Delgado.A well-known
   businessman, Gulamo Rassul, was arrested in connection with this case.This
   was his second arrest in connection with drugs - he had earlier been named
   in connection with the smuggling of hashish to America and Europe from the
   port of Nacala in conta iners where it was disguised as tea.

   When this case came to trial the following year, the minor players -
   Quissanga fishermen and boat owners - received long sentences, but the men
   the prosecution regarded as the drug barons, Rassul and a certain Momade
   Bachir (no relation to Bachir Suleman), were acquitted.Thus Rassul's
   chauffeur picked up a 12 year jail sentence, but the learned judge would
   have the public believe that Rassul knew nothing of his chauffeur's
   activities.

   Trafficking also takes place by boat in the Mozambique Channel, in
   Mozambican territorial waters.This came to light dramatically when a boat
   carrying hashish ran aground on rocks off the coast of Inhambane province
   in June 2000.About 16 tonnes of hashish packed into tins was washed
   ashore.

   The nine Pakistanis who escaped the shipwreck were sentenced to lengthy
   prison terms.But once again nothing was revealed about the destination of
   the hashish or its owners.

   Those who investigate d the drugs trade reached some startling
   conclusions.London-based journalist Joseph Hanlon wrote, in an article
   published on 28 June 2001, in the independent newsheet "Metical" , that
   "the value of illegal drugs passing through Mozambique is probably more
   than all legal foreign trade combined, according to international experts"
   (This was before the MOZAL aluminium smelter, the mainstay of Mozambican
   exports, had reached full production).

   Those experts (who were not named) "estimate that more than one tonne per
   month of cocaine and heroin are now passing through Mozambique".That
   monthly drug traffic had an estimated retail value of about 50 million US
   dollars.

   Since Mozambique is essentially a transit route rather than a consumer of
   illicit drugs, most of the money would end up outside the country.But
   Hanlon suggested that perhaps 10 per cent would be the take for local drug
   dealers - which would be 60 million dollars a year.
   &lt; br&gt;Hanlon suggested that "drug money must be one factor in Mozambique's
   record growth in recent years".

   This article identified two drug routes.Hanlon wrote that heroin moves
   from Pakistan to Dubai then onto Tanzania and Mozambique, before it is
   eventually channeled to Europe.The cocaine route is in the other direction
   "from Colombia to Brazil to Mozambique and on to Europe and East Asia".

   Hanlon argued that the money from these hard drugs, but also from hashish
   and mandrax, is laundered through banks, and foreign exchange bureaux.The
   explosion in the number of foreign exchange bureaus (41 at the time of
   Hanlon's article) was certainly hard to explain given the relatively small
   size of the legal economy.

   Hanlon's article, a shortened version of which was published in English by
   AIM, elicited no outraged denial.No official sources attempted to refute
   Hanlon's claims.

   And Hanlon was far from alone in warning of the dangers of dru g
   trafficking, money laundering and organised crime.

   In a speech made at an international seminar in Portugal in 2003, judge
   Augusto Paulino (who is now the country's attorney general) made much the
   same points.He agreed that Mozambique had become a transit area for the
   cocaine trade and that a second network "active since 1992, consisting
   mainly of Pakistanis and Mozambicans of Pakistani origin, is concentrating
   on hashish and mandrax".On top of this came the heroin route, from
   Pakistan to Tanzania and Mozambique and then to Europe.

   "The various drug trafficking networks are well organised companies", said
   Paulino, "perhaps better organised than the structures of the State,
   involving importers, exporters and transporters of dugs, operators on the
   ground and informers".

   Paulino had no doubt that this was only possible with the connivance of
   corrupt officials within the Mozambican state. "Customs officials are
   bribed to let drugs pass, immigration officers facilitate identification
   and residence documents, police are paid to look the other way, and it is
   even said that magistrates receive bribes to order illegal releases", he
   noted.

   Drug profits were laundered, and the result was a proliferation of
   "mansions and luxury cars" - but some of the money would be "reinvested in
   legal businesses to allay future suspicions".

   In the seven years since Paulino spoke, no significant drug trafficker has
   been arrested, but there is little doubt that Mozambique remains on the
   traffickers' map.Regularly police and customs announce the seizure of
   cocaine at Maputo and Beira airports, often carried in the stomachs of
   young Mozambican women who have traveled from Brazil.

   In no case have the women revealed who hired them.Fear of reprisals is
   clearly greater than the fear of prison.And for all those who are caught -
   how many more pass through the airports undetected ?

   One of the most senior parliamentarians in the ruling Frelimo Party,
   Teodato Hunguana, in 2002 warned that if the state does not take action
   against the bandits, then the bandits will capture the state.

   "The only way to prevent the State from falling definitively into the webs
   of crime is to unleash a war without quarter against the lords of crime",
   Hunguana said.If the war was restricted just to the hitmen and the small
   fry, leaving what the Americans call the "kingpins" untouched, that would
   allow them "to become ever more powerful, and capable of taking over the
   state itself".

   When Paulino or Hunguana sounded their warnings, they were widely
   applauded by the Mozambican media - the same media which today throws up
   its hands in horror when the American president and Treasury Department
   take a serious step in the fight against organised crime.

   Of course, it would have been much better had Mozambican law enforcement
   agencies been willing and able to identify and bring to justice drug
   barons.Since they have not done so, it is entirely reasonable for the
   Americans to take measures to protect their financial system from dirty
   money from Mozambique, just as they do when the duty money comes from
   Colombia.

   Obama deserves praise for his action, not a welter of cheap anti-American
   abuse.

   (Description of Source: Maputo Agencia Informacao Mocambique in English --
   government-owned news agency carrying a selection of national and African
   news, distributed via email)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   115) Back to Top
   Taxi Company Owned by Bashir's Niece Affected by US Drug Kingpin Ban -
   Agenci a Informacao Mocambique
   Monday June 14, 2010 15:34:15 GMT
   In the city there is an MBS taxi and car hire firm.MBS-Taxi is owned by a
   niece of Bachir, according to the paper's sources, rather than by Bachir
   himself.But American institutions that operate in Quelimane are
   interpreting the Treasury's ban on Bachir's business empire as covering
   MBS-Taxi as well.

   All American citizens, companies and other institutions are banned from
   having any financial transactions with Bachir or his companies.Up until US
   president Barack Obama designated Bachir as a "narcotics kingpin",
   MBS-Taxi had a thriving business providing services to various
   non-governmental organisations working in Zambezia, many of which are
   funded by the United States.

   One NGO source told "Diario de Zambezia" that his organisation was paying
   5,000 meticais (about 150 US dollars) a day to hire vehi cles from
   MBS-Taxi.Sometimes this NGO would hire two or three vehicles for periods
   of 30 days or more.

   But with the designation of Bachir as a drugs baron that has all abruptly
   ended.This NGO contract was cancelled, and the NGO is looking for
   alternatives to meet its transport requirements.With the lucrative NGO
   market closed to it, this taxi firm may face a somber future.

   (Description of Source: Maputo Agencia Informacao Mocambique in English --
   government-owned news agency carrying a selection of national and African
   news, distributed via email)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   116) Back to Top
   Nigerian Commitee Denounces 'Anti-DPRK Campaign' of US and ROK
   KCNA he adline: "Anti-dprk Campaign of U.S. And S. Korea Accused" - KCNA
   Tuesday June 15, 2010 04:18:59 GMT
   (Description of Source: Pyongyang KCNA in English -- Official DPRK news
   agency. URL: http://www.kcna.co.jp)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   117) Back to Top
   JFJB on US Patriot Missiles in Poland, Anti-Missile Systems in Europe
   To request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735; or email: oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. -
   Jiefangjun Bao Online
   Tuesday June 15, 2010 04:07:23 GMT
   (Description of Source: Beijing Jiefangjun Bao Online in Chinese --
   Website of the daily newspaper of the Central Military Commission of the
   People's Liberation Army (PLA), reporting on a wide range of military
   affairs; URL: http://www.chinamil.com.cn/)Attachments:jf0603s.pdf

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   118) Back to Top
   Rwandan court delays US lawyer's plea hearing - RNA
   Monday June 14, 2010 08:53:58 GMT
   Text of unattributed report entitled "Erlinder in High Court with
   complaints against prosecution" published in English by Rwandan news
   agency RNAKigali : Embattled American lawyer, Peter Erlinder, was back in
   court Monday (14 June) to plead for his release, but the High Court had to
   adjourn for an hour as the accused raised serious concerns against the
   prosecution, RNA reports.As the High Court sitting in Nyamirambo got to a
   start at 8:00a.m., Erlinder rose to complain that he had not been able to
   see his lawyers, and that he just been given the necessary documents
   requested from the prosecution. He said he had not been allowed enough
   time to prepare his case.Court ruled that the hearing be adjourned for an
   hour. It is now back into session.Details later.(Description of Source:
   Kigali RNA in English )

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   119) Back to Top
   Militant Behind US Consulate Attack Said Killed in 'Accidental Blast'
   Report by Mushtaq Yusufzai: "LeJ Commander Qari Zafar Killed in
   'Accidental IED Blast'" - The News Online
   Tuesday June 15, 2010 02:43:02 GMT
   PESHAWAR: A dreaded militant commander, Qari Zafar, allegedly involved in
   the attack on the US Consulate in Karachi on March 2, 2006, has reportedly
   been killed in an improvised explosive device (IED) blast near Miramshah
   in North Waziristan a few days ago.

   The US had announced five million dollars in head money on him for his
   alleged involvement in attack on their consulate in Karachi. Zafar
   belonged to the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) and was wanted to the government
   for his involvement in several terrorist attacks. His close aides
   confirmed his death and claimed he was killed after mistakenly touching
   some explosives dumped inside his Hujra (male guesthouse) near Miramshah
   in North Waziristan. They said that he was killed on June 7 but members of
   his militant organisation did not want to make it public.

   "He was actually searching for some materials and suddenly touched wires
   which triggered the blast in the IEDs stored there. He and a child,
   belonging to his relatives, died on the spot while two bodyguards
   sustained serious injuries," a Lashkar-e-Jhangvi commander told The News
   on condition of anonymity.

   Talking to this scribe by telephone from somewhere in North Waziristan,
   the Taliban commander said Qari Zafar, aged 38 to 40 years, was living
   there for sometime with his family and relatives. He ruled out the widely
   believed rumours among the militants that some people might have planted
   an IED to kill him.

   "He used to be very cautious and had restricted his movement to a great
   extent, but life is mortal and everyone has to die sooner or later,"
   remarked the Urdu-speak ing militant commander.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The News Online in English -- Website of
   a widely read, influential English daily, member of the Jang publishing
   group. Neutral editorial policy, good coverage of domestic and
   international issues. Usually offers leading news and analysis on issues
   related to war against terrorism. Circulation estimated at 55,000; URL:
   http://www.thenews.com.pk/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   120) Back to Top
   Urdu Press Roundup on Turkey's Protest Against Israeli Aggression -
   Pakistan -- OSC Summary
   Monday June 14, 2010 14:51:19 GMT
   the situa tion in the wake of the Israeli aggression against the Freedom
   Flotilla, the role of different countries, including the United States and
   Turkey, and the world at large, published in the 13 June edition of four
   Urdu dailies: Express: Article by Babar Ayaz Sees Flotilla Mission
   Accomplished

   Emphasizing that relief workers aboard the Freedom Flotilla have succeeded
   in drawing the world's attention toward the humanitarian situation in
   Gaza, the article writes: "On the return of Talat Hussain and his
   colleagues to Pakistan, the people have heaved a sigh of relief.However,
   this relief is transitory.People across the world have been experiencing
   an unending agony for the past 62 years because of the treatment being
   meted out to Palestinians.Those killed in the savage Israeli attack on the
   Freedom Flotilla, which was sailing from Turkey, a few days ago, were our
   friends from the humanitarian point of view.Therefore, the rage of
   peace-loving people cannot be pacified by their release alone.Activists
   belonging to both the right and left wing had together organized the
   Freedom Flotilla.They have achieved the objective of drawing international
   attention to the inhuman blockade of Gaza by Israel and Egypt." Express:
   Article by Abdul Qadir Hassan Sees Turkey Assuming Leadership Role

   Hailing the courage of Turkey in strongly expressing its outrage against
   the Israeli aggression, the article says: "Despite old diplomatic ties
   with Israel, which only a few Islamic countries have with Tel Aviv, Turkey
   has raised the flag of Islamic dignity.A relief ship set sail from Turkey
   toward besieged Gaza.It was Turkey's courage.We, in Pakistan, too, have
   raised vociferous slogans; thank God, one of our journalists was aboard
   the ship; otherwise, our slogans would have proved hollow.We Pakistanis
   take pride in the Islamic courage and valor of Turkey at a time when our
   rulers fear that if they speak out, the United States may stifle them.It
   is strange that we are an Islamic Republic of Pakistan, while Turkey is a
   secular country, and secularism has basic position in its constitution.The
   rulers of our Islamic country are secular as well, but the rulers of
   secular Turkey are most Islamic in the world at present and are active
   against their enemy, Israel.Every one has his own fate and fortune (to
   play leadership role)." Jang: Article by Air Commando (retired) Muhammad
   Yaqub Deplores Soft International Reaction

   Believing that the world community should have come forward with full
   force against the Israeli act, the article says: "This naked aggression by
   Israel can only be termed barbarism.This peaceful fleet, comprising six
   ships, was carrying nearly 10,000 tons of edibles, medicines, toys for
   children, and books, among other necessities, at the initiative of the
   Turk NGO, 'Free Gaza Movement.'The ship was on its way to Gaza from
   Cyprus.Philanthropists hailing from some 40 countries were traveling on
   board the main ship of the fleet, 'Mavi Marmara.'It may be recalled that
   the naval fleet was carrying relief goods for the helpless and
   famine-stricken people of Gaza.There is no doubt that the grave tragedy
   that the Freedom Flotilla has met with, has, once again, drawn
   international attention toward the Palestinian issue and plight of
   Palestinians; however, the strong international reaction that was expected
   was not seen.The emergency meeting of the UN Security Council (UNSC) was
   convened at the request of Turkey, but it merely resulted in a demand to
   Israel to release detained people and to return the ships.The more
   perplexing attitude is that of the Muslim community.The people of all
   Muslim countries continue demonstrations against the aggression of the
   Jewish state of Israel, but the Muslim leadership has raised no voice from
   any Islamic platform." Jinnah: Editorial Criticizes US Tilt Toward Israel

   Emphasizing that the countries of the world have strongly rea cted but the
   United States has not, the editorial says: "Attack on the relief caravan
   on its way to Gaza was strongly condemned, but the United States did not
   condemn the inhuman tragedy.Although it claims to be the champion of human
   rights, in practical life, it is an open antithesis of its character.Are
   Muslims not humans in the eyes of the United States, or do they not have
   human rights?It is a wild goose chase on the part of the world community
   to demand the United Nations to impose sanctions on Israel or to hope that
   it will do so.Instead of looking toward the United Nations, Israel should
   socially be boycotted, and it should be told that it will have to respect
   international laws and respect them while living in the comity of
   nations." Jinnah: Article by Anwaar Hussain Haqqi Believes World Awakening
   Against Israel

   Analyzing the impact of the Israeli attack on the relief workers of the
   Freedom Flotilla at the international level, the article says: " ;We have
   heard the sobbing tale of Freedom Flotilla passengers from Talat Hussain,
   a Pakistani journalist onboard.He saw death closely and told the world
   that despite paying the price of their dreams and aspirations, the unarmed
   Palestinian Muslims could not be released from prison (Israeli siege).If
   the exhausted Palestinian Muslims, who have the identity of being part of
   the Muslim fraternity, complain about emancipation from the prison of
   Jewish atrocities, they are subjected to new slaughter houses like Sabira
   and Shatilla at times, and sometimes in the form of Freedom
   Flotilla.However, because of the voyage of Freedom Flotilla, the issues of
   besieged people of Gaza have come into limelight, and justice-loving
   nations of the world have started realizing that the Israeli intransigence
   should be eliminated.It is worth mentioning here that the brotherly
   country, Turkey, has been at the forefront of this wave of awakening
   against Israel.Turkey was the first country that esta blished relationship
   with Israel." Mashriq: Article by Dr Sajid Khakhwani Finds Israel Flouting
   International Calls

   Criticizing Israel's defiance at the world level and its trampling down of
   international laws and norms, the article says: "On this heartrending
   incident, the US President has only said that Israel should be held
   accountable.The UNSC only agreed that the matter should be investigated,
   and the UN Human Rights Council demanded a probe into the incident in a
   bid to join the chorus.Israel spurned everyone's sacred statements and
   emphatically said that it would not allow any international agency to
   meddle into its affairs and that it would tackle the matter on its
   own.After this Israeli statement, all institutions became silent, because
   they might have made their statements to get such a statement from Israel,
   or it may also be that they have lost the power to speak after this
   Israeli threat.It may also be that these statements were issued just to a
   ppease the world.History bears witness to the fact that Israel's measures
   have always enjoyed the backing of the United States and champions of
   secularism.This support continues to date.The question is: What would have
   been the reaction of international institutions if it would have happened
   to an Israeli ship at the hands of Iran?

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   121) Back to Top
   Urdu Press Roundup Discusses Role of US, UN in Israeli Siege of Gaza
   The following is a roundup of excerpts from editorials and articles on the
   humanitarian situation in Gaza as a result of prolonged Israeli siege, the
   repercussions of Israeli attack on the aid workers traveling to Gaza in
   Freedom Floti lla, and the role of different stakeholders including the
   United States, published in the 12 June edition of three Urdu dailies -
   Pakistan -- OSC Summary
   Monday June 14, 2010 14:51:20 GMT
   Discussing the dismal role of the United Nations in the resolution of
   conflicts and help the suffering nations, the editorial says: "If the
   situation in the Middle East is reviewed by keeping in view the ground
   realities, it will not be wrong to say that the United Nations is mainly
   responsible for the worst situation and the ongoing humanitarian
   catastrophe.The United States takes efforts to ensure implementation on
   resolution that are based on the interests of the United States and big
   powers.However, the interests of the poor and backward countries have not
   been ensured.The partiality of the United Nations, which is responsible
   for world peace, is creating new problems and aggravating their int ensity
   across the globe.The first and foremost excess is the veto power of five
   big countries because the entire world makes some decision, but one of
   these (veto wielding) countries comes forward and torpedoes it."
   Express:Article by Talat Hussain Asserts Aid Workers Brought Gaza Tragedy
   to Limelight

   Claiming that the attack on the aid caravan by Israel drew the world
   attention to the humanitarian situation in Gaza once again, the article
   says: "Five major foreign organizations of the world and 600 guests and
   six ships exposed Israel to the worst situation of its history.There was
   hardly any nook and cranny of the world where the Israeli attack on the
   relief caravan was not condemned.The US statements aimed at saving Israel
   from the world outcry were swept away by the surging tide of grief and
   outrage that was seen in the Islamic world and every other country, where
   the report of the Israeli attack reached.The embassies of Middle East
   countries agree that s uch strong and widespread protest than this had not
   been seen during the past 10 years.It appears as if the dry mouths that
   were protesting have again become watery (forceful) and the tongue that
   was shackled in tense jaws is again slapping the face of Israel."
   Islam:Article by Abdul Qudoos Muhammad Discusses Enthusiasm, Sympathy for
   People of Gaza, Flotilla Workers

   Giving eyewitness account of the embarking of the Freedom Flotilla from
   Turkey and heartiest send off given to it, the article says: "When the
   relief caravan started sailing, the scene was worth watching.There was a
   weird and wonderful environment amid a mob of one million humans,
   fluttering red and green flags of Islamic brotherhood, and heart-warming
   slogans by Turkmen and women in great ecstasy.The feelings that I had
   while embarking on the mission of helping the oppressed brethren,
   closeness to holy Jerusalem, and representing Pakistan, are ineffable."
   Ausaf:Article by Mussaddiq Ghumman Lauds Turkish Prime Minister's Role

   Appreciating the strong stance of the Turkish prime minister after the
   Flotilla tragedy, the article says: "Turkey, with whom memories of the
   last golden period of the Islamic world, that is, caliphate are attached,
   is lucky that nature has blessed it with a leader like Tayyip
   Erdogan.Turkey is among those countries of the Islamic world that have
   recognized Israel.Erdogan does not let it become his weakness but is using
   it as a force.Erdogan, who has a close eye on global politics, realizes
   that under the mounting world pressure, Israel will be unable to maintain
   its blockade of Gaza for a long time.Pressure on Israel is mounting with
   each passing day.It is just possible that Israel might announce lifting of
   sea blockade of Gaza before the voyage of Erdogan to Gaza.Even if it does
   not happen, the strongman of Turkey will do what no other leader of the
   Muslim world can imagine to do." Ausaf:Article by M.M. Adeeb Condemns Mi
   ld Criticism of Israel by US

   Analyzing the soft reaction of the Obama administration of Israel's attack
   on Freedom Flotilla, the article says: "Low-tone c ondemnation of Israel
   by US President Obama indicates that he supports the concept existing in
   the religious circles of the United States that under the Old Testament
   that the Jews have a natural right on the Middle East.That is why, the
   United States refrains from protesting against the Israeli measures to
   deprive the Arabs of their rights like the ancient natives of the United
   States (same is the case with the West European countries).This is one
   aspect of Israel's aggression and the US behavior.The second important
   aspect is that the United States wants to sabotage Iran's nuclear program
   through Israel and wants to make it clear to the Islamic world that it
   should refrain from joining the nuclear race."

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   122) Back to Top
   Protests, Conferences in Cities Against Blasphemous Caricatures
   Unattributed report: "Hurmat-e- Rasool [Honor of Prophet] Conferences,
   Protest Demonstrations Against Blasphemous Caricatures, Israeli
   Aggression; Demand for Blasphemy Law at International Level" - Khabrain
   Monday June 14, 2010 11:23:26 GMT
   The Muslims should come out of the slavery of dollar, euro, and pound. Why
   are the people who ban Muslim welfare organizations silent over Israeli
   terrorism? The Muslim rulers should make efforts to get blasphemous law
   passed at international level. The participants expressed their views in
   the meeting. Prof Hafiz Abdul Rehman Makki , Maulana Amir Hamza, Hafiz
   Saifullah Mansur, Maulana Saifullah Khalid, Qari Muhammad Yaqub Sheikh,
   Hafiz Muhammad Masood, Maulana Hasnain Siddiqi, Hafiz Khalid Walid, and
   some others participated in the meeting.

   Speaking on the occasion, Hafiz Said said that the movement for protection
   of the honor of the Prophet Muhammad would be continued in the entire
   country with full force. Holding of processions, Hurmat-e- Rasool
   conferences, and rallies in all small and big cities and towns of four
   provinces and Azad Kashmir would be further speed up. It was stated in the
   meeting that acts are being carried out against the Muslims because of
   weak and hippocratic attitude of the Muslim rulers.

   The Israeli attack on the Aid Flotilla for the Palestinian Muslims is the
   worst terrorism. By getting united, the Muslim rulers should devise a
   strong strategy, and the Israeli aggression should be given a befitting
   reply.

   Meanwhile, Hurmat-e- Rasool conferences were held in Kasur, Raiwind,
   Jehlum, Rawalpindi, and Jaranwala, in which, many people belonging to all
   walks of life participated.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad Khabrain in Urdu  News, a
   sensationalist daily, published by Liberty Papers Ltd., generally critical
   of Pakistan People's Party; known for its access to government and
   military sources of information. The same group owns The Post in English,
   Naya Akhbar in Urdu and Channel 5 TV. Circulation of 30,000)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   123) Back to Top
   Foreign Nationals Renting Houses in Quetta Arouses Curiosity
   Report by Jawad R Awan: Shadowy activities of US operatives in Quetta -
   The Nation Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 10:43:43 GMT
   LAHORE - Shadowy activities of foreign nationals continued to be witnessed
   in the provincial capital of Balochistan and they are stated to have
   rented several houses in posh residential areas of Quetta for their
   operations, TheNation has learnt.

   Well-placed sources privy to the actions of such people in Quetta told
   this correspondent on Sunday that these persons were found involved in
   suspicious activities, however, they maintained a low profile to avoid
   public exposure. They have rented houses in Chaman Housing Scheme,
   Satellite Town and adjacent places to these housing areas in Quetta,
   divulged the sources.

   The process of renting houses by foreign nationals in such areas started
   sometime back and had intensified in the last few weeks, while they were
   also fortifying and fencing their residences besides deputing security
   personnel and installing surveilla nce system, stated the sources. When
   contacted, senior JUI-F leader Hafiz Hussain Ahmad, who hails from
   Balochistan, endorsed the information of this scribe about the foreigners'
   activities and renting of houses in Quetta, asserting that they could be
   members of notorious Blackwater, as the Americans had already intensified
   their covert activities through the stated organisation in Islamabad,
   Peshawar, Karachi and Lahore.

   Hafiz Hussain said that the process of renting houses by foreigners,
   especially the Americans, had started three months back but it gained
   momentum last month, while they were also making security arrangements in
   the surroundings of the houses similar to those in Islamabad.

   He said the US administration was definitely planning its presence in
   Balochistan, keeping in view its borders with Iran and Afghanistan.

   The JUI-F leader said Iran was more important for the US in the backdrop
   of recent sanctions on Tehran, however, they were also f acing stiff
   resistance from Afghan Taliban.

   He said the US ambassador in Pakistan had informed the newsmen that the US
   wanted to open a consulate in Quetta, while it was on the record of the
   media that organisations like Blackwater were carrying out activities
   under diplomatic cover.

   Meanwhile, informed circles of Balochs, talking to this correspondent on
   condition of anonymity asserted that the Americans' presence in
   Balochistan is aimed at finding Taliban's so-called Quetta Shura and
   monitoring Iran and technical coordination of their operations with their
   forces in Afghan areas, bordering Pakistan.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The Nation Online in English -- Website
   of a conservative daily, part of the Nawa-i-Waqt publishing group.
   Circulation around 20,000; URL: http://www.nation.com.pk)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquir ies regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   124) Back to Top
   Report Says F-16 Fighter Jets Being Given to Pakistan Under Tough
   Conditions
   Online report: PAF to get F-16s with tough stipulations - The Nation
   Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 10:43:41 GMT
   ISLAMABAD (Online) - Despite being a key ally in the war against terrorism
   in which Pakistan have rendered innumerable sacrifices, the United States
   is extending military assistance to Islamabad under strict conditions and
   stipulations, reflecting the nature of relations between the two
   countries.

   According to sources, Washington will deliver 18 F-16 fighter jets to
   Pakistan Air Force (PAF) by the end of this month under a series of
   conditions including an assurance from Pakistan that aircraft would not b
   e used in any conflict with India.

   During last week's strategic dialogue between India and the US, the Indian
   leaders had conveyed to their counterparts in Washington their concerns
   over the US military assistance to Pakistan. Besides assuring Indian side,
   Washington for the first time came out open to state that it was taking
   steps to ensure that its military aid to Pakistan would not be used
   against India.

   Sources said the US Air Force engineers would accompany the delivery of
   the F-16s and supervise not only the airbase but also the operations to be
   carried out by the PAF against Taliban and Al-Qaeda. Though the PAF pilots
   will fly the jets, the logistics, management and control is stated to
   remain with the US engineers.

   Sources said the Block 50/52 Model F-16 jets equipped with latest missiles
   would land at Shahbaz Airbase in Jacoabad.

   It is said that around US$500 million were spent to upgrade the airbase to
   make it conducive to the new F-16s .

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The Nation Online in English -- Website
   of a conservative daily, part of the Nawa-i-Waqt publishing group.
   Circulation around 20,000; URL: http://www.nation.com.pk)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   125) Back to Top
   Kidnappers Kill Abducted Employee of US-Based NGO in Quetta
   Unattributed report: Abducted NGO employee slaughtered - The Nation
   Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 10:47:45 GMT
   QUETTA - Kidnappers have killed one of the abducted employees of a
   US-based NGO, Mercy Corps, reliable sources told The Nation late Sunday
   night.

   Unidentified g unmen had kidnapped four Pakistani employees of Mercy
   Corps, including Islamabad-based Dr Asif, provincial coordinator Iftikhar
   Shafiq, assistant programme officer Bebarg Suleman and Habibullah, driver,
   as they were heading towards Qilla Saifullah from Zhob in February this
   year.

   According to the sources, the abductors had slaughtered Habibullah and
   dispatched a video footage to the families of the victim and other three
   officials, warning them if the ransom was not paid within next few days,
   the remaining three would also be killed.

   The sources said the kidnappers had shifted the NGO officials to the
   tribal areas and were demanding Rs100 million ransom for their safe
   release.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The Nation Online in English -- Website
   of a conservative daily, part of the Nawa-i-Waqt publishing group.
   Circulation around 20,000; URL: http://www.nation.com.pk)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   126) Back to Top
   Khaksar Tehreek Chief Says People Should Unite Against Imperial Forces
   Report by staff correspondent: People should unite against imperial
   forces - The News Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 10:32:34 GMT
   LAHORE: PEOPLE should unite against imperial forces to get rid of
   price-hike, poverty and state terrorism of America. This was stated by
   Quaid Khaksar Tehreek Dr. Sabiha Al-Masharaki while addressing a protest
   demonstration in front of the Lahore Press Club on Sunday.

   She said 80 percent poor and 15 percent middleclass of the country should
   stand against pro-American rulers and politicians of the country who had
   made people's life miserable. They have swallowed billions of rupees
   through money laundering by waving of loans.

   She said international conspiracy of the US and its allies was exposed in
   2000 when they attacked Afghanistan under the cover of so-called war
   against terrorism. So far Nato forces killed thousands of Muslims in
   Afghanistan, and US drone attacks at tribal areas of Pakistan claimed
   lives of several hundred innocent Pakistanis, she added. Moreover, US blue
   eyed killed thousands of innocent Palestinians; and India was doing the
   same in Held Kashmir, she maintained.

   Dr. Sabiha said now time had come to start resistance movement against the
   pro-American rulers and the US to get rid of their clutches. She urged the
   people to get united for this noble cause.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The News Online in English -- Website of
   a widely read, influential English daily, member of the Jang publishing
   group. Neutral editorial policy, good coverage of do mestic and
   international issues. Usually offers leading news and analysis on issues
   related to war against terrorism. Circulation estimated at 55,000; URL:
   http://www.thenews.com.pk/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   127) Back to Top
   Minister Says Gas Project With Iran Not to Affect Ties With US
   Unattributed report: Gas project not to affect ties with US: Naveed -
   Business Recorder Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 10:26:23 GMT
   ISLAMABAD (June 14 2010): Federal Minister for Petroleum and Natural
   Resources Syed Naveed Qamar on Sunday said Pakistan and Iran have signed
   gas pipeline project on Su nday and it would not affect Pakistan-United
   States relations. Talking to a private news channel, he said the Pakistan
   People's Party (PPP) government signed the agreement, which would go a
   long way in meeting the energy needs.

   The minister said that this gas would be used for power generation in the
   country and it was utmost requirement of the country to overcome energy
   crisis, he added.

   (Description of Source: Karachi Business Recorder Online in English --
   Website of a leading business daily. The group also owns Aaj News TV; URL:
   http://www.brecorder.com/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   128) Back to Top
   Official Reports Show Double Increase in Drone Attacks in 5 Months
   Report by Asif Ali Bhatti: "Double Increase in Drone Attacks; 38 Strikes
   in 5 Months" - Jang
   Monday June 14, 2010 10:32:33 GMT
   to the last year, double increase in drone attacks has been witnessed in
   the first five months of 2010, and until 3 June, 38 drone attacks were
   carried out, in which a total of 309 people were killed. It was also
   claimed that the deceased included 17 commanders of the Taliban and
   Al-Qa'ida. However, 21 close aides of terrorist groups were also killed in
   the attacks.

   Official sources say that intelligence and investigative agencies have
   confirmed killing of Al-Qa'ida leader Abu Yazid al-Misri along with his
   wife and children in the drone attack on Dattakhel, which was carried out
   on 21 May and was being described a big achievement by the United States.

   According to the documents gathered in collaboration with US
   organizations, av ailable with the Geo News, it has been stated in details
   that most of the drone attacks this year were carried out in North
   Waziristan and four attacks were launched in South Waziristan and one in
   Khyber Agency, in which 71 people were killed.

   The sources said that an increase in suicide attacks in Pakistan had also
   been witnessed, and a total of 28 attacks during the first five months of
   the year were launched on important government buildings. More than 900
   people, including 270 security personnel, were killed and about 2,500
   others suffered injuries in more tan 1,000 terror incidents. The
   intelligence agencies have also expressed danger that terrorist groups can
   carry out some bigger and more attacks this year with the support of
   Al-Qa'ida, and in these attacks, Lahore and Karachi can be targeted.
   However, Peshawar is being described the most vulnerable in this regard in
   the second grade.

   (Description of Source: Rawalpindi Jang in Urdu  The War, an influe
   ntial, largest circulation newspaper in Pakistan, circulation of 300,000.
   One of the moderate Urdu newspapers, pro-free enterprise, politically
   neutral, supports improvement in Pakistan-India relations)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   129) Back to Top
   Former Afghan Intelligence Chief Behind Propaganda To Malign Pakistan
   Report by staff correspondent: Ex-Afghan intelligence chief behind
   anti-Pakistan propaganda - The News Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 10:17:16 GMT
   ISLAMABAD: The former chief of Afghan intelligence gathering outfit
   Amrullah Saleh has taken up the full-time job to malign P akistan on one
   end while providing all sorts of assistance to terrorists to step up
   activities on the soil of Pakistan on the other.

   He throughout had been in league with Indian Research and Analysis Wing
   (RAW) to destabilise Pakistan but has been recently ousted by Afghan
   President Hamid Karzai due to his dubious role in the affairs of the
   state. Amrullah has also assumed the task of creating difficulties for the
   Afghan administration. The story carried by the Sunday Times and so-called
   report against Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) by London
   School of Economics are the handiwork of Amrullah Saleh.

   Well placed diplomatic sources told The News that Amrullah Saleh has
   threatened his leadership that he would bring the peace fragility back in
   the region to the previous level since he was refused a free hand to play
   the Indian game in the region.

   Amrullah has been brought up and groomed by the Indian intelligence
   organisation and he had been inv olved in anti-Pakhtun activities
   throughout his career. He was the head of the Afghan National Directorate
   of Security (NDS). He was appointed to the position by President Hamid
   Karzai in early 2004, succeeding Muhammad Arif Sarwari.

   Saleh is an ethnic Tajik from Panjshir, and worked for the Northern
   Alliance under Ahmad Shah Masood. In 1997 he was appointed to lead the
   Northern Alliance's Dushanbe office, where he served as the main conduit
   linking the CIA to Masood.

   With the September 11, 2001 attacks against the United States and the
   beginning of US bombing against the Taliban, Saleh returned to Afghanistan
   towards the end of October to help lead Northern Alliance intelligence,
   serving as the special assistant to intelligence chief Muhammad Arif
   Sarwari. The Northern Alliance subsequently took over Afghanistan's
   existing intelligence apparatus. While Sarwari became director, Saleh was
   appointed to head Department One, whose duties included liaison with forei
   gn military, diplomatic and intelligence organisations.

   Sarwari and Saleh reportedly had a falling out over the latter's
   enthusiasm for greater reform, leading to Saleh's assignment to a lesser
   post in late 2003. Sarwari was removed from his post as leader of the NDS
   in early 2004 amidst various criticism that he had, amongst other things,
   abused his powers, worked against the government and that the NDS had
   committed human rights violations. President Hamid Karzai appointed
   Amrullah Saleh in his place in February 2004. Saleh resigned from the NDS
   on June 6, 2010 after a Taliban attack against the national peace jirga
   held by President Karzai. He was temporarily replaced by Engineer Ibrahim
   Spinzada. Saleh has been accused of following the footprints of his
   predecessor.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The News Online in English -- Website of
   a widely read, influential English daily, member of the Jang publishing
   group. Neutral editorial policy, good coverage of domestic and
   international issues. Usually offers leading news and analysis on issues
   related to war against terrorism. Circulation estimated at 55,000; URL:
   http://www.thenews.com.pk/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   130) Back to Top
   Pakistan Article Says US Strategy To Weaken Afghan Taliban Bound To
   Fail
   Article by Asif Haroon Raja: Kandahar Operation Bound To Fail - Pakistan
   Observer Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 08:54:00 GMT
   It is being propagated by US that Pakistan was principally responsible for
   creating and supporting Taliban. It forgets that Afghan Mujahideen were
   motivated , funded, trained and used in Afghan jihad against the Soviet
   forces by CIA. Mujahideen were renamed as Taliban once they fell from
   grace of US oil merchants. The latter had eyed untapped oil and gas
   resources of Central Asian Republics (CAR) since long and saw their dreams
   getting near fruition once USSR collapsed in 1991 and USA emerged as sole
   super power. When the Afghan Mujahideen failed to stabilize Afghanistan ,
   critical to ship out oil and gas from CAR to European and American markets
   through Afghanistan and Balochistan , US oil group UNOCOL started to
   evince interest in Taliban movement in 1994.

   Karzai was an employee in UNOCOL and was supportive of Taliban. In
   December 1997, Taliban visited UNOCOL's Houston refinery operations to
   sort out details of construction of pipelines. Kandahar was the city near
   which gas pipelines were to pass. Mullah Omar belonging to Kandahar was in
   UNOCOL camp. Sanctions had been imposed on Taliban regime once it came to
   power in 1996 to pressurize them to agree to US terms. After Bush came to
   power in January 2001, several Taliban envoys were received at State
   Department, CIA, and National Security Council. They fell from grace when
   they refused to strike a deal on the terms heavily tilting in favor of
   UNOCOL. Invasion plan was finalized to bring a regime change and 9/11
   whether actual or fabricated gave an excuse to mount the assault.

   When Iraq venture began to prove troublesome and costly, it was decided to
   quash al-Qaeda, considered as the chief trouble maker in Iraq through
   troop surge and division of resistance forces through bribe. Sunnis in
   heavy majority in central Iraq having suffered the most at the hands of
   coalition troops and Shias and Kurds who had extended support to the
   invaders to topple Saddam regime, were cultivated and convinced to fight
   al-Qaeda under the plea that it was preventing stabilization and
   reconstruction of Iraq. Gen Petraeus and Gen McChrystal were the brains
   behind this scheme. 170,000 Sunni tribesmen in Iraq were armed to teeth by
   USA in 2007 to help combat al-Qaeda. Slight reduction in militancy in Iraq
   after troop surge in 2008 in two most volatile provinces of Fallujah and
   Ambar gave erroneous impression to US leadership that a big breakthrough
   had been achieved. With presidential election drawing near, Bush
   Administration announced that US forces had turned the tide. Delusional
   victory signs were waived and Petraeus and McChrystal eulogized.

   Activation of Iraq front divided the attention of coalition forces and
   allowed the Taliban to regroup and strike back to recover some of the lost
   spaces in Afghanistan . Situation in Afghanistan kept deteriorating
   because of resurgence of resistance forces and application of excessive
   force by occupation forces. As per UNAMA Report, from 2007 onwards, each
   year there has been 40% increase in civilian casualties in Afghanistan .
   It did not take long for US military-NATO to get bog ged down in two
   quagmires of its own making. Purpose behind troop surge of 21000 US troops
   in August 2009 was to accelerate process of killing irreconcilable Afghan
   Pashtuns so as to even up the score card of killing in the two theatres of
   war. In Iraq versus Afghanistan the ratio has been 1.5 million: 100,000
   killed. The other purpose was to reduce the influence of Taliban in
   southern Afghanistan , seen as their major base and to push out
   undesirable elements from Helmand into Pashtun belt of Balochistan and
   make it restive. Yet another reason was to lend greater support to
   unpopular Karzai. USA wants to ensure his continuation in power once US
   troops depart from Afghanistan .

   Violence in Afghani stan up surged after troop surge. 13000 attacks took
   place from July-August 2009. In August alone, 10 attacks took place each
   day. By September the casualty state of coalition forces crossed the
   figure of total fatalities taking place from October 2001 onwards. This
   factor t ogether with debacle in Nuristan where US troops abandoned posts
   laden with arms and rations jolted Gen McChrystal. He hurriedly wrapped up
   all the forward posts and ordered troop withdrawal from forward locations
   to main cities and towns in rear to avoid fatalities. Making an assessment
   of morale of troops that had sunk to lowest ebb; he sent a distress signal
   to Washington to send 40,000 additional troops on emergency basis if
   Afghanistan was to be retained.

   Second US troop surge of 30000 was meant to recapture the lost space in
   southern and eastern Afghanistan, break the linkage between Taliban and
   Al-Qaeda, divide and weaken Taliban, train and equip Afghan National Army
   (ANA) enabling it to takeover frontline duties, make India guardian of
   Afghanistan, negotiate with Taliban from position of strength and then
   withdraw leaving behind US friendly regime. Millions of dollars are being
   doled out to Taliban by US security companies to buy their loyalties.
   Another opera tion was launched in Marjah with 15000 foreign troops and
   ANA with high expectations that it would turn the tide. After the
   operation ran into snags, attention got riveted towards Kandahar . Much
   hyped Kandahar has been postponed from June to August since the planners
   are developing cold feet. To cover up another embarrassment, its success
   has been made contingent upon an operation in North Waziristan , (NW)
   described as the hub of terrorism wherefrom militants in Afghanistan are
   guided.

   A false picture is being given to the world that Kandahar is the bastion
   of Taliban and its capture will break their back and its outcome will
   decide the future strategy. This assumption has been made on the premise
   that Mullah Omar and most Shura members belong to this city. It should be
   well understood that only Kabul and Kandahar are in effective control of
   government forces and they have a large presence and well fortified
   positions. Most militant attacks in this city are conducte d by raiders
   coming from outside and not from within. Having announced the operation
   and the likely month, it will be foolish on part of the Taliban believing
   in strategy of guerilla tactics to wait for them and offer a pitched
   mismatched battle in Kandahar . Moreover, Kandahar is poised towards
   Balochistan and not NW. It was only when very little actionable
   intelligence could be yielded from arrested Mullah Baradar that Quetta
   Shura story got punctured. Soon after, Faisal Shahzad fairy-tale was
   concocted to drum up NW.

   Peace jirga of tribal elders called by Karzai was initially scheduled in
   April. It was postponed to May 2 and then to May 29 essentially because of
   arrest of some important members of Taliban Shura by security forces in
   Pakistan . It was finally held on 5 June which was attended by as many as
   1600. Although the Jirga is being claimed as a roaring success since his
   plans were endorsed by the participants, none can deny that Karzai is
   still an unpopular and unwanted leader seen as a surrogate of USA .

   Rather than first holding talks and then resorting to fighting in case
   negotiations prove unproductive, the US is putting the cart before the
   horse by fighting first and talking later. Many among coalition partners
   do not subscribe to this strategy. Even there are rumblings and dissent
   within US administration. What if back of militancy is not broken after
   Kandahar operation? Presently US policy makers are working on single hope
   of sufficiently weakening Taliban, which in their perception will propel
   Taliban fighters to reach out to Karzai and abandon their leaders and thus
   weaken the position of Mullah Omar and Haqqani. Like other imprudent plans
   this plan is also bound to fail.

   --The writer is a retired Brig and author of several books.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad Pakistan Observer Online in English --
   Website of the pro-military daily with readership of 5,000. Anti-India,
   supportive of Saudi polic ies, strong supporter of Pakistan's nuclear and
   missile program. Chief Editor Zahid Malik is the author of books on
   nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan; URL: http://www.pakobserver.net)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   131) Back to Top
   Well-Known Website Declares President Zardari as US Citizen
   Report by Azim M Mian: Website declares Zardari US citizen - The News
   Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 07:48:06 GMT
   NEW YORK: A well-known US website, which contains the record of 36,000
   prominent figures of the world, has declared President Asif Ali Zardari a
   US citizen, and said that he suffers from depressi on and is a diabetes
   patient.

   The revelation of 'Noteable Names Database', the US website established in
   2002, may create further problems for President Zardari and his comrades.
   The website says it collects such information about famous personalities
   through general sources, besides its own intelligence and other sources
   that are not known to the common man.

   If the information given on the website is correct, President Zardari may
   have to face a court challenge for contesting the presidential election by
   concealing his foreign nationality, taking oath as the president of
   Pakistan in the presence of the US oath and other reasons. A US
   nationality holder takes oath to raise weapons against the anti-American
   elements and promises to perform his duty, keeping US oath and interests
   supreme to all other loyalties and oaths. While the president of Pakistan
   takes oath to abide by the Constitution and interests of Pakistan.

   The website has declared Dr Abdul Qade er Khan, Singer Nusrat Fateha Ali
   Khan, Benazir Bhutto, Nawaz Sharif, Pervez Musharraf, Ziaul Haq and Ayub
   Khan holders of Pakistani nationality.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The News Online in English -- Website of
   a widely read, influential English daily, member of the Jang publishing
   group. Neutral editorial policy, good coverage of domestic and
   international issues. Usually offers leading news and analysis on issues
   related to war against terrorism. Circulation estimated at 55,000; URL:
   http://www.thenews.com.pk/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   132) Back to Top
   Detained Militants in Afghanistans Bagram Prison May be Used Against
   Pakistan
   Report by Sikander Sh aheen: Bagram detainees may be used against
   Pakistan - The Nation Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 06:05:41 GMT
   ISLAMABAD - Detained militants in Afghanistan's Bagram prison would be
   'utilised' against Pakistan in the coming days in the wake of
   'resurrection' of ever growing Indian presence in Afghanistan.

   All the pertinent developments this week in the backdrop of 'resurrection'
   of Indian camps in Afghanistan well decipher that the powerful Indian camp
   in Afghanistan has made all the arrangements with the patronage of US to
   marginalize Pakistan's role in the country. According to details received
   from Afghanistan based sources, a credible Indian diplomatic delegation
   had held intensive meetings with NATO's top brass earlier this week to
   'negotiate' about the future of Bagram detainees. Three other important
   meetings of Indian diplomats with Nato commanders have reportedly taken
   pla ce this week. As result of these 'deliberations,' the 'potential'
   militants detained in Bagram have been 'selected' to divulge all the
   presumably fabricated details that would certainly not bode well with
   Pakistan.

   These informed circles see the US reluctance in granting access to
   Pakistani investigators to interrogate David Coleman Headley, a Mumbai
   attacks suspect, as a move strongly inter-linked to it. The ever-rising
   tide of Indo-US collusion in Afghanistan had somehow slowed down followed
   by Jundullah's Chief Abdol Malek Rigi's arrest earlier this year when the
   presence of Indian sponsored militant camps with the support of the US had
   hit the media.

   As part of the revived Indo-US strategy in Afghanistan, the focus is to
   ridicule the presence of all the 'hostile elements' that oppose the
   stealthy visits of banned militants in Afghanistan, to make covert deals
   with Indians and NATO sponsored camps. Given these obvious reasons, the
   role of the United Nations in Afghanistan as well as credible
   international observers that oppose the presence of terror elements and
   favour dialogue solely with Afghan Taliban had been virtually sidelined.
   UN-based diplomats say that they were completely kept in dark regarding
   the recent Indo-US collusions. It is pertinent to recall that restless
   Indian camp had started taking counter moves after the London Moot on
   Afghanistan had encouraged the involvement of Afghanistan's immediate
   neighbours in the redressal of the country's crises thus creating space
   for Pakistan's influence.

   The extensive Congressional hearings in last March conducted by the
   Congress sub-committee on Foreign Affairs headed by India-backed Senator
   Gary Ackerman against 'LeT's growing ambitions in Pakistan' continued for
   over a month. These proceedings only slammed Pakistan's role in what they
   termed as sponsoring terrorism but did not utter a word about Indian camps
   in Afghanistan.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The Nation Online in English -- Website
   of a conservative daily, part of the Nawa-i-Waqt publishing group.
   Circulation around 20,000; URL: http://www.nation.com.pk)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   133) Back to Top
   Saudi Press 14 Jun 10
   The following lists selected items from the Saudi press on 14 Jun 10. To
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735. - Saudi Arabia -- OSC Summary
   Monday June 14, 2010 07:14:06 GMT
   1. Palestinian Issues

   a. Abha Al-Watan (Internet Version-WWW) in Arabic 14 Jun (Daily newspaper
   known for its exclusive reports and in-depth coverage of local, Arab, and
   foreign news; strongly critical of Israel; financially supported by Asir
   Governor Prince Khalid al-Faysal; URL:

   http://www.alwatan.com.sa/ http://www.alwatan.com.sa/) editorial entitled
   "Reconciliation And the Palestinian Will To Take Action" says: "The visit
   by the (Arab League) secretary general and the Arab League delegation to
   Gaza, the first to the Strip, has deep significance that no reasonable
   Palestinian can deny since the Israeli enemy, who is in control of the
   sea, land, and air, have become a hostage ever since the freedom flotilla
   massacre at the end of May despite the Security Council's failure to
   condemn it." (400 words; no processing planned) 2. Yemen

   a. Jedda Ukaz (Internet Version-WWW) in Arabic 14 Jun (Daily newspaper of
   wide circulation; known for its exclusive reports and interviews with
   Saudi officials; often critical of Israel and US Middle East policy; URL:
   http://www.okaz.com.sa http://www.okaz.com.sa) reports, citing local
   sources in Al-Dali in southern Yemen, that four Yemeni soldiers were
   killed in an ambush. It also reports that several members of Al-Qa'ida
   were hiding in Ma'rib in Yemen, citing Ma'rib Governor Naji al-Zayidi.
   (700 words; processing)

   3. Israel

   a. Al-Watan editorial entitled "Allegations Unworthy of a Response" says:
   "The kingdom, which refused to allow the United States to use its
   territories during the invasion of Iraq in 2003, despite the kingdom's
   strong relationship with Washington, will never allow Israel, with which
   it has no relations at any level, to use its airspace to attack Iran."
   (450 words; no processing planned)

   II. Local Issues

   1. Health Issues

   a. Jedda Saudi Gazette (Internet Version - WWW) in English 14 Jun (Daily
   newspaper; twin sister of Ukaz; largest circulation English daily; URL:

   http://www.okaz.com.sa/sgazette/ ht tp://www.okaz.com.sa/sgazette/ )
   reports "Nine AIDS cases detected by pre-marital tests in Jizan":
   "Pre-marital tests have revealed nine cases of AIDS in Jizan, saving the
   lives of prospective partners, according to Mohsin Tubaiqi, director of
   the Health Department in Jizan. Tubaiqi was speaking at a symposium on
   health in marriage in Jizan Sunday. "Pre-marital tests are crucial in
   stopping the deadly infection from spreading to unsuspecting partners," he
   said." (220 words; no processing planned) III. Negative Selection: a.
   Jedda Arab News (Internet Version - WWW) in English 14 Jun (English
   language daily; formerly owned by the late Prince Ahmad Bin-Salman, son of
   Riyadh Governor Prince Salman; URL:

   http://www.arabnews.com/ http://www.arabnews.com/)

   b. Riyadh Al-Jazirah (Internet Version-WWW) in Arabic 14 Jun (Daily
   newspaper of wide circulation; strongly critical of US Middle East policy;
   URL:

   http://www.al-jazirah.com http ://www.al-jazirah.com)

   c. Riyadh Al-Riyad (Internet Version-WWW) in Arabic 14 Jun (Daily
   newspaper of largest circulation; focuses on domestic policies; critical
   of Israel and US Middle East policy. URL:

   http://www.alriyadh-np.com http://www.alriyadh-np.com)

   d. Al-Dammam Al-Yawm (Internet Version-WWW) in Arabic 14 Jun (Daily
   newspaper focusing on Eastern Region news. URL:

   http://www.alyaum.com/ http://www.alyaum.com/)

   e. Jedda Al-Madinah (Internet Version-WWW) in Arabic 14 Jun (Conservative
   daily providing coverage of general domestic, regional, international, and
   religious news -- URL:

   http://www.almadina.com http://www.almadina.com)

   f. Riyadh Al-Iqtisadiyah (Internet Version-WWW) in Arabic 14 Jun (Economic
   daily providing coverage of business and consumer affairs, especially in
   Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states -- URL:

   http://www.aleqtisadiah.com/ http://www.aleqt.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   134) Back to Top
   ROK Naval Exercise To Mark 60th Anniversary of Korean War
   Updated version: upgrading precedence, modifying headline, adding
   metadata, adding cross ref; Yonhap headline: "Naval Drill to Mark 60th
   Anniversary of Korean War" - Yonhap
   Tuesday June 15, 2010 02:29:44 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be dir ected to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   135) Back to Top
   DPRK Releases Joint Statement on 10th Anniversary of 15 Jun Joint
   Declaration
   Pyongyang Korean Central Broadcasting Station (KCBS) in Korean carried the
   following in its 2100 GMT newscast on 14 June, which OSC plans to
   translate as first referent item; KCNA headline: "All Koreans Called Upon
   to Unite Under Banner of June 15 Joint Declaration" - KCNA
   Tuesday June 15, 2010 00:25:58 GMT
   (Description of Source: Pyongyang KCNA in English -- Official DPRK news
   agency. URL: http://www.kcna.co.jp)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.
   &lt; br&gt;

   136) Back to Top
   State Department Says Senior US Official 'Due' in Seoul To Discuss Ship
   Sinking
   Yonhap headline: "Campbell Due in Seoul on Ship Sinking, Other Issues:
   State Dept." by Hwang Doo-hyong - Yonhap
   Monday June 14, 2010 23:25:33 GMT
   this week to discuss the torpedoeing of a South Korean warship by North
   Korea and other issues of mutual concern, the State Department said Monday
   (14 June).

   "Assistant Secretary for East Asia and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell will
   be in the region later this week," spokesman Philip Crowley said. "He will
   depart Washington tomorrow, arrive in Seoul on Wednesday, June 16. We're
   going to meet with senior Korean officials, including officials from the
   Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Defense."Campbe ll will also
   visit Tokyo Thursday on his way back home, the spokesman said.Campbell's
   visit comes as the UN Security Council began discussing South Korea's
   complaint against North Korea for the sinking of the warship Ch'o'nan
   (Cheonan) in the Yellow Sea in March, which killed 46 sailors.An
   international team concluded last month a North Korean mini-submarine was
   responsible for the sinking, but Pyongyang denies involvement and has
   warned of war if sanctioned.South Korean officials said they are seeking a
   stern warning to North Korea as a precaution against North Korea repeating
   such a provocation, rather than additional sanctions. Pyongyang is already
   under sanctions for its nuclear and missile tests.China, however, has yet
   to blame the North for the ship sinking, spawning concerns that Beijing, a
   veto-wielding council member, will not approve even a council presidential
   statement condemning Pyongyang, let alone a resolution carrying further
   sanctions.Campbell will also like ly discuss preparations for President
   Barack Obama's upcoming summit meeting with South Korean President Lee
   Myung-bak (Yi Myo'ng-pak) on the sidelines of the G-20 economic summit in
   Canada later this week.Also likely high on the agenda will be the meeting
   of defense and foreign ministers of the two countries in Seoul in late
   July.Some analysts believe South Korea will raise the issue of a possible
   delay in the transfer of the wartime operational control of its troops
   during next month's strategic security dialogue with Defense Secretary
   Robert Gates and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.Conservatives from
   both Seoul and Washington have called for a delay in the OPCON transfer,
   fearing a possible gap in the joint defense of South Korea, amid
   heightened tensions after North Korea's sinking of the Ch'o'nan (Cheonan)
   and recent nuclear tests and missile launches.The wartime OPCON transition
   agreement was reached in 2007 under former liberal President No Mu-hyo'n
   (Roh Moo-hyun) , who sought a greater role for South Korea in maintaining
   its own defense. Peacetime control of South Korean forces was returned in
   1994.The U.S. currently maintains 28,500 troops in South Korea, a legacy
   of the Korean War, in which the U.S. fought alongside South Korea against
   invading North Korean troops aided by China.(Description of Source: Seoul
   Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news agency of the ROK; URL:
   http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   137) Back to Top
   PRC Article Wary of ROK Explanation of Ship Sinking
   To request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735; or email: oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Guoji
   Xianqu Daobao
   Monday June 14, 2010 15:35:07 GMT
   (Description of Source: Beijing Guoji Xianqu Daobao in Chinese -- a weekly
   general affairs newspaper, "International Herald Leader," published by
   Cankao Xiaoxi (Reference News); Cankao Xiaoxi is a publication of Chinas
   official news agency Xinhua)Attachments:gjxqdb0402a.pdf

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   138) Back to Top
   ROK Defense Ministry To Offer Cultural Tours for US Soldiers
   By Song Sang-ho: "U.S. Soldiers to Get Cultural Tours" - The Korea Herald
   Online
   Monday June 1 4, 2010 14:51:15 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul The Korea Herald Online in English --
   Website of the generally pro-government English-language daily The Korea
   Herald; URL: http://www.koreaherald.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   139) Back to Top
   DPRK Party Organ Says IAEA Chief Makes 'Imbecile' Remarks on Nuclear Issue
   KCNA headline: "IAEA Chief's Reckless Remarks Snubbed"; OSC is texting the
   full vernacular version as first-referent item; Pyongyang Korean Central
   Broadcasting Station in Korean is scheduled to broadcast the following at
   0952 GMT on 14 June. - KCNA
   Monday J une 14, 2010 08:19:32 GMT
   (Description of Source: Pyongyang KCNA in English -- Official DPRK news
   agency. URL: http://www.kcna.co.jp)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   140) Back to Top
   People's Daily Online: 'Thomas Barnett Recommends US Never Go To War with
   China'
   Article by John Milligan-Whyte and Dai Min: "Thomas Barnett Recommends US
   Never Go To War with China"; headline as provided by source - Renmin Ribao
   Monday June 14, 2010 07:46:04 GMT
   US News &amp;amp; World Reports describes Thomas Barnett as "one of the
   leading stra tegic thinkers of our time." Barnett has seen and understood
   the world from his roles of senior advisor to the US Secretary of Defense,
   Chief of Staff, Central Command, Special Operations, and led the five-year
   NewRulesSet.Project for the U.S. military. He is the author of two books
   that have been profoundly influential: The Pentagon's New Map: War and
   Peace in the 21st Century and Blueprint for Action: A Future Worth
   Creating. Barnett's comments were posted on his website,
   http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/globlogization/tag/china, in response to an
   article in the Financial Times on May 24, 2010,
   http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/de337ab6-66ca-11df-aeb1-00144feab49a.html.The
   Financial Times article titled "The way to increase America's exports to
   China" was published as the second round of the Strategic and Economic
   Dialogues began by Dr. Huo Jianguo, president of the Chinese Academy of
   International Trade and Economic Cooperation, a subsidiary of China's
   Ministry of Co mmerce, and John Milligan-Whyte, chairman of the Center for
   America China Partnership. Barnett quoted five paragraphs from the article
   stating that they are a "nice summary of China's thinking regarding our
   bilateral economic relationship" and "an excellent and hard-to-refute
   summary argument." These are those paragraphs:"America is used to having
   it all its own way. In 1972, as the US opened diplomatic relations with
   China, it abandoned pegging the dollar to gold. That enabled it - through
   its monopoly on printing US dollars - to create huge trade and investment
   advantages. Its economy grew strongly as it managed the value of its
   currency at the expense of other nations.Washington has not always fully
   acknowledged that from 2000, the year China joined the World Trade
   Organization, to 2008 the US dollar declined against many currencies,
   while from 2005 to 2008 Beijing gradually increased the US dollar exchange
   rate of the renminbi by 21 per cent.

   The US stimulus plan increased America's debt and deficits and will
   decrease the value of the dollar. China increased its holding of dollars
   as America's other trading partners reduced theirs. As the US financial
   crisis loomed, China pegged the renminbi to increase stability and exert a
   positive influence on its economic recovery. It will keep a relatively
   stable renminbi exchange rate to ensure its economic growth is steady
   rather than uncontrollable, which would harm all nations. Currently, China
   is providing stability as the largest holder of US government debt and US
   dollar-denominated reserves.China-US relations changed when the world
   learnt that America's financial system would collapse unless the
   government saved insolvent US-based global banks, insurance companies and
   carmakers. The bail-out turned the US government into the largest
   shareholder of formerly privately-owned companies, subsidising their
   commercial failure. Laisser faire theories, which US policymake rs still
   demand that China adopt, were suddenly replaced by massive US government
   control of market forces.The US often pursues policies that are "win-win"
   for itself alone. Its policy-makers would undermine China's vital national
   security and economic interests while seeking China's help in protecting
   America's vital interests. But the reality is that the policies America
   proposed are implementable and sustainable only if they are beneficial
   also for China. The Strategic and Economic Dialogue should focus on new US
   policies instead of trying to change China's policies, which are essential
   for global economic recovery.Thomas Barnett has an extraordinarily
   American reputation and track record of successfully prompting American
   policymakers to realize that profound changes in US military strategic
   thinking are required. Today the US's conventional economic and national
   security policies have not provided either economic or national security
   although the US economy is by far the largest in the world and US military
   spending is over half of all nations. As Paul Kennedy explained in 1987 in
   The Rise and Fall of Great Powers, America was over extending itself
   militarily and economically, as Rome, Spain and England did. American
   policymakers ignored Paul Kennedy's analysis which has become reality
   unfortunately.

   New US armed conflict with North Korea or Iran will be catastrophic for
   the US and global economy. Military expenditures are 18 percent of the
   Obama's administration's budget. The US government has enormous deficits
   and debt that are already unsustainable at even current levels. China is
   the largest holder of US debt and dollars and its support for the US is
   vital for capital market confidence in US government's monthly debt
   issues. China as it should be, is helping the US to stabilize an unstable
   global economy. In doing so, it is indirectly funding America's military
   and other policies. Iran supplies 25 percent of China's oi l and US armed
   conflict with Iran could quickly limit US and China oil supplies and
   cripple the US and global economy. Heavily armed, erratic and economically
   fragile North Korea is China's neighbor dependant on China for its oil and
   economic viability. North Korea's peaceful coexistence with the US is
   critical to the safety of South Korea, Japan, Asia's and global peace and
   economic growth. This kind of tinderbox of oil needs and alliances
   triggered two world wars in the past century.US policymakers find it
   difficult to change their mindset or policies. They must immediately
   because of the American people's rapidly growing financial, economic,
   unemployment, government solvency, national security and military
   crises.Chinese policymakers have understood for thirty years, as Thomas
   Barnett stated this week, that America and China must never go to war.
   President Obama implementing that advice requires healthy changes
   America's whole relationship with China. China's military spe nding is 12
   percent of the US, although its population is 500 percent larger. China
   has been at peace with all nations since 1979 and had the fastest growing
   economy in the world because it's policymakers adopted Deng Xiaoping's
   policies of opening up to foreign investment and peaceful coexistence with
   America and all other nations. America must now reciprocate Deng
   Xiaoping's policies. President Obama must become America's Deng Xiaoping.

   For 60 years there has been a fundamental core problem in US-China
   relations that only President Obama can and needs to change now: US
   policymakers and policies have not accepted the legitimacy of the Chinese
   government. Chinese policymakers were optimistic when President Obama was
   elected with the promise and mandate for change at a time of profound
   American economic and national security crises. It has been 60 years since
   the birth of modern China and resulting outbreak of the Korean War, which
   never formally ended as the sinking o f a South Korean naval vessel
   reminded us. The views of Thomas Barnett quoted above support an
   unconventional perspective for American policymaking: that America should
   accept peaceful coexistence with the 22 percent of mankind and the
   legitimacy and success of their indigenous government. It has been very
   successful in managing sustained economic growth, social and political
   stability, peaceful foreign and defense policies, and reform and opening
   up to American investment.China's policymakers are ready, willing and able
   to help America's policymakers and people deal successfully with the most
   serious financial crisis in 100 years. Every leader of China including Mao
   Zedong wanted to an arrangement of peaceful coexistence with the US.
   However, Secretary of State Dulles would not even shake hands with China's
   Premier Zhou Enlai. After testing the Chinese in the Korean and Vietnam
   Wars, President Nixon and Secretary of State Kissinger were delighted to
   shake hands with Mao Zed ong in 1972.President Obama has the genius and
   constitutional ability required to now lead America in embracing and
   reciprocating China's policies of peaceful coexistence, which is the only
   thing that will solve the current and prevent future conflict between the
   world's two largest economies. The time has come for American policymakers
   to really accept China's government's legitimacy, capabilities and
   admiration and desire for friendship with America.To clear the way for the
   breakthrough in US-China relations that is now as urgent as it is
   essential, President Obama needs to be the first US president to fully
   transcend the core problem in 21st century US-China relations: five
   generations of conventional American policymakers' ideologically driven
   hostile and therefore ineffective China policies.

   Senior American policymakers are part way thru the change in mindset and
   policies, but part way is not enough now because of the Iran and Korean
   crises. US China policies are based on tragically outdated 20th century
   assumptions. Many US policymakers' mindset towards China is today driven
   by Cold War goals and strategies seeking to destabilize and defeat China
   in the now fundamentally changed circumstances of the 21st
   century.America's conventional policies are undermining global security
   and economic growth. These include selling arms to Taiwan, when
   cross-strait relations are steadily improving or because they are
   improving, and funding the Fung Gong to creating software to circumvent
   Chinese internet censorship, which the State Department announced just
   before the second round of the Strategic and Economic Dialogues, and
   funding unrest in Tibet and Unger, constant military information gathering
   that creates dangerous and unnecessary confrontations with Chinese
   military forces and collisions in the air and confrontations at sea, and
   the many other policies that endanger American economic and national
   security by seeking to undermine China's ec onomic and national
   security.Today, US policymakers simultaneously seek to undermine China's
   economic and national security and seek Chinese policymakers' help in
   protecting America economic and national security. This is an astonishing
   and relentless mistake that was less important before the current crises.
   Tomorrow it can destroy the American and Chinese peoples economic and
   national security. It can destroy mankind, without seeking to do so.
   Modern war between the worlds two largest economies has been termed
   "unrestricted war" and it is fast, economically devastating and foolish.

   Fortunately Thomas Barnett and others such as General Peter Pace, former
   Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs in the last Bush administration, recognize
   that the US needs a new approach with China. But neither they nor
   President Obama have announced that they have worked out what the US's
   21st century China policies should be. They are obvious to President Hu
   Jintao and other Chinese policymakers, including China's military, but the
   Chinese have not been able to get Americans to understand. The new
   approach is presented in the America China Partnership Book Series, which
   the Chinese state created a "New School of US-China Relations" in 2009. It
   has been summarized in a shared blueprint for American and Chinese
   policymakers in A White Paper for the Presidents of America and China. And
   the American people have elected a President like Barack Obama who
   recognizes the change is urgently required. Both were essential to get the
   need for the obvious new policies understood in America.During the past
   six American presidents' administrations, three generations of China's
   policymakers' have unilaterally implemented the Principles of Peaceful
   Coexistence. American policymakers have not realized how profoundly that
   benefits America. That failure is astonishing after the Korean War and
   Vietnam Wars in which American policymakers' tested China's convention al
   military prowess. Nonetheless China has been unilaterally implementing the
   Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, which American policymakers enshrined
   in the UN Charter after the globally catastrophic lessons of World Wars I
   and II. The last time the nations of the world faced economic conditions
   like those we face today, our forefathers endured a ten-year global
   depression and five year global war. It ended with the invention and use
   of weapons and science so powerful that a replay of past mistakes will
   likely make the earth uninhabitable by our species.

   That is why today, Chinese policymakers are using extraordinary means of
   signaling President Obama personally that American policymakers are making
   serious mistakes because of their conventional mindset. One example is the
   continuing arms sales to Taiwan because American policymakers, including
   Secretary of Defense Gates and other senior decision makers in President
   Obama's administration just do not "get it.&amp;q uot; They have not yet
   understood that a historic change in US China policy is needed and
   profoundly beneficial to US vital and other interests. In response to the
   Bush administration's last US arms sale to Taiwan, China suspended
   military-to-military exchanges and refused to allow an American aircraft
   carrier to enter Hong Kong. American policymakers simply resented and did
   not understand or did not accept the point the Chinese were making. They
   disregarded China's government's and the Chinese people's sentiments.In
   light of the North Korean and Iran crises where, unlike the cross-strait
   relations of China and Taiwan, things are getting significantly more
   dangerous rather than improving, Chinese policymakers are concerned that
   similar types of errors in judgment by the US or its allies in responding
   to crises in North Korea and Iran or elsewhere today or tomorrow will
   plunge the world into ruin. They are concerned that US policymakers' zero
   sum game mindset, problem solving habits and strategies could cause
   serious a chain of events leading to disaster in the Middle East and Asia.
   They are concerned that American policymakers are not yet really willing
   to effectively collaborate with Chinese policymakers in creating
   reciprocally beneficial and implementable economic and military solutions
   to the global natural resource supply problems of the US and China and
   other dangers. They are concerned that American policymakers could present
   the world and China very suddenly and soon with limited and then only
   appalling options.President Obama hopefully will ask himself, "Why would
   Chinese policymakers take such an extraordinary action of declining to
   meet with Secretary of Defense Gates," who is seeking to paper over issues
   like the Taiwan arms sales and seek Chinese support for conventional
   American policymaking solutions that will not defuse the North Korean and
   Iran crises?

   Chinese policymakers are sending a unique public signal to President Obama
   regarding the serious level of their concern by refusing to accept
   meetings not merely with US military leaders as before, but with Secretary
   of Defense Gates, as a result of the Obama administration's Taiwan arms
   sale. This creates a crisis that is itself very dangerous as it promotes
   US hostility. But the unique signal sets up the need for a
   president-to-president discussion of and creation of a profoundly better
   and different relationship between the US and China that is
   essential.American policymakers wonder what has changed, since they are
   merely continuing conventional US policies of selling arms to Taiwan
   irrespective of China's national security needs? Everything has changed.
   American policymakers do not understand sufficiently that the US's
   relationship with China has abruptly and prematurely forever entered a new
   21st century era when the US Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke and
   Treasury Secretary Paulson told the world that the US financial system and
   economy would collapse without immediate government bail out of insolvent
   American banks and insurance companies. Now America is itself, like many
   nations, insolvent. What has changed is what Paul Kennedy feared would
   happen in The Rise and Fall of Great Nations published in 1987. Hopefully,
   President Obama will agree with Thomas Barnett's
   recommendations.Presidents Obama and Hu Jintao will meet at the G8 summit
   meeting on June 25 to 27 and discuss face-to-face the rapidly developing
   crises in North Korea, Iran, the global economy, the lack of capital
   market confidence in far too many nations' solvency. President Obama
   urgently needs to find and announce new China policies soon in the "new
   era of partnership" he indicated in 2009 that he was launching. A new era
   requires new policies. These new US policies to be successful must be to
   reciprocate China's opening up to American investment and non-intervention
   in China's internal affairs and the commitment to peac eful coexistence
   with China. Nothing else can quickly, adequately and permanently improve
   America's economic and national security. Only a breakthrough now in
   discussions between the two presidents can restore the capital markets
   confidence that the volatile interaction of global military crises and
   financial and economic crises can be managed. Foreseeable events now can
   suddenly undermine confidence in all currencies if the simultaneous
   ominous economic and geopolitical crises can be successfully managed.
   Without such new confidence the world will become economically, militarily
   and politically unmanageable by any combination of states actions.

   A White Paper for the Presidents of America and China that was delivered
   to the US Ambassador to China on November 1, 2009 is being posted now on
   the Internet. It presented ten new key questions for President Obama in
   formulating his China policies. The White Paper's first question is does
   President Obama believe that for Amer ica to win China must lose as many
   US policymakers do? He addressed this saying "There is room for us both"
   at the press conference following his November 17-18, 2009 meetings with
   President Hu Jintao.The second question is whether he believes that
   protecting America's economic and national security require that America
   prepare for and conduct war with China? Many US policymakers and US trade,
   foreign and military strategies towards China are based on the assumption
   that the US must do so. Are US policymakers going to raise taxes or borrow
   the money from China to prepare for and conduct such a war?The third
   question is does President Obama believe that many existing American
   policies towards China undermine America's economic and national security?
   The White Paper cites as an example, that US policy is to prevent Chinese
   oil companies from buying American oil companies, prevent China from
   interfering with America's sources of oil and acquiring oil from nations
   Amer ica disapproves of such as Iran. This approach seeks to be win-win
   only for America and is not realistic. America and China, the two largest
   economies, consume more oil than they produce. Many US policymakers today
   believe that this makes war between the two nations inevitable.It means
   exactly the opposite. The two nations that consume 42 percent of the
   world's oil must be both economic and military allies, aligning their
   economic and national security in a new era of peaceful coexistence, or
   neither will have the oil they require. It benefits no nation for oil to
   vary in price from 47 to 147 US dollars a barrel. Collaborating America
   and China could stabilize the price of oil at a price of 65 to 70 US
   dollars a barrel benefiting all nations and militarily and economically
   ensure the peace that is essential for steady oil production and
   transportation globally. The US and China entering a new era of really
   collaboration, because they both recognized they will never go to war ,
   would change the Iran and other issues profoundly.The eighth question is
   whether President Obama believes that major American companies, such as
   General Motors, can remain profitable anywhere if it they are not
   profitable in China? America's new China policies must be reciprocally
   beneficial for America and China's trade, economic growth to be
   collaborative.In summary, Chinese policymakers refusing the US Defense
   Secretary's request to visit China signals President Obama personally that
   conventional American policymaking will not be effective in the Iran and
   North Korea crises. It signals President Obama personally that Chinese
   policymakers need the US to accept the legitimacy and success and
   reciprocate the peaceful coexistence policies of China's indigenous
   government, and to reciprocate and open up to Chinese companies investing,
   and thus creating US and Chinese economic and employment growth. That
   breakthrough is what is essential to make the world governable.John Mill
   igan-Whyte is called the "new Edgar Snow" and the "21st century Kissinger"
   and is the only non-Chinese to be elected the winner of the Social
   Responsibility Award from the China Business Leaders Summit. John
   Milligan-Whyte and Dai Min are the executive producers and co-hosts of the
   Collaboration of Civilizations television series adapted by the eight
   books they wrote in the America-China Partnership Book Series published in
   English and Mandarin in 2009-2010 that created the "New School of
   America-China Relations." They founded the America-China Partnership
   Foundation and Forum in 2008 and the Center for America-China Partnership
   in 2005, which was recognized in 2009 as "the first American think tank to
   combine and integrate American and Chinese p erspectives providing a
   complete answer for America and China's success in the 21st century."

   (Description of Source: Beijing People's Daily Online in English --
   Internet-only English v ersion of Renmin Ribao, the daily newspaper of the
   CPC Central Committee. URL: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   141) Back to Top
   KCNA Carries DPRK Army's 12 Jun 'Proclamation' Against ROK Loudspeakers
   Pyongyang Korean Central Broadcasting Station (KCBS) in Korean carried the
   following as the second of two items in its 0300 GMT newscast on 12 June;
   KCNA headline: "KPA General Staff Issues Crucial Declaration" - KCNA
   Monday June 14, 2010 04:50:55 GMT
   KPA General Staff Issues Crucial Declaration

   Pyongyang, June 14 (KCNA) -- The General Staff of the Korean People's Army
   on Saturday issued the following crucial declaration: The commander of
   forces of the Korean People's Army in the central sector of the front had
   already solemnly clarified internally and externally a firm stand of the
   KPA that it would blow up with sighting shots loudspeakers and all other
   means for a psychological warfare in case the group of traitors resumes
   the psychological warfare against the DPRK in the areas along the
   front.Defying this warning, the group of traitors hell-bent on the
   confrontation with fellow countrymen is working with blood-shot eyes to
   make preparations for resuming the all-out psychological warfare against
   the DPRK at any cost.After Kim Thae Yong, puppet minister of Defence, had
   declared the measure to resume the psychological warfare against the DPRK
   in the wake of traitor Lee Myung Bak (Yi Myo'ng-pak, Ri Myong-bak)'s issue
   of "a statement to the people" on May 24, the puppet army has already set
   up loudspeak ers for the psychological warfare at 11 places in areas along
   the Military Demarcation Line and is stepping up its preparations to
   install them at more than 30 places at the second phase and at 94 places
   under a long-term plan.And it is also attempting to set up even electronic
   displays at 11 places for the psychological warfare.Its attempt is a
   flagrant violation of the historic June 15 joint declaration in which both
   the north and the south made pledges before the entire nation and the
   north-south military agreement worked out on its basis. This is, at the
   same time, a hideous provocative act of infringing upon the dignity and
   supreme interests of the DPRK.From a military point of view that a
   psychological warfare is one of the basic operational forms for carrying
   out a war the installing of such means for the above-said warfare is a
   direct declaration of a war against the DPRK.Therefore, the revolutionary
   armed forces of the DPRK will launch an all-out military strike to blow up
   the group's means for the psychological warfare against the DPRK in all
   areas along the front as already solemnly warned by the commander of
   forces of the Korean People's Army in the central sector of the front.The
   decisive military strike of the revolutionary armed forces of the DPRK is
   not a tit-for-tat retaliation on the "principle of proportion" much touted
   by the group of traitors.It should bear in mind that the military
   retaliation of the DPRK is a merciless strike foreseeing even the turn of
   Seoul, the stronghold of the group of traitors, into a sea of
   flame.(Description of Source: Pyongyang KCNA in English -- Official DPRK
   news agency. URL: http://www.kcna.co.jp)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   142) Back t o Top
   ROK Editorial Urges President Lee To Complete Military Reshuffle 'As Soon
   As Possible'
   Editorial: "Is The Military Ready to Deal With N.Korea?" - Chosun Ilbo
   Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 04:45:52 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Chosun Ilbo Online in English -- English
   website carrying English summaries and full translations of vernacular
   hard copy items of the largest and oldest daily Chosun Ilbo, which is
   conservative in editorial orientation -- strongly nationalistic,
   anti-North Korea, and generally pro-US; URL: http://english.chosun.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   143) Back to Top
   DPRK's KCNA: Czech Group Issues Statement Supporting 'Struggle for
   National Reunification'
   KCNA headline: "Korean People's Struggle For National Reunification
   Supported" - KCNA
   Monday June 14, 2010 03:51:27 GMT
   (Description of Source: Pyongyang KCNA in English -- Official DPRK news
   agency. URL: http://www.kcna.co.jp)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   144) Back to Top
   NK Threatens to Make Seoul `Sea of Flames` - Dong-A Ilbo Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 01:22:04 GMT
   (DONG-A ILBO) - North Korea has threatened to turn Seoul into a "sea of
   flames" for the first time in 16 years and destroy South Korea's
   propaganda loudspeakers along the Demilitarized Zone.

   The South's military completed installing propaganda loudspeakers last
   week at 11 places along the inter-Korean border to resume psychological
   warfare against the North as part of retaliation for Pyongyang's sinking
   of the South Korean naval ship Cheonan.

   The General Staff of the (North) Korean People's Army said a "stern
   military strike" on the loudspeakers will not be a one-to-one response
   under the " principle of proportions" championed by Seoul's "traitorous
   group." The North Korean military said the South should bear in mind that
   military retaliation is a "merciless strike foreseeing even the turning of
   Seoul, the stronghold of the group of traitors, into a sea of flames."
   Calling the South's installation of psychological warfare equipment a "
   direct declaration of war" against the North, the General Staff threatened
   an all-out military strike to eliminate the means of psychological warfare
   means on all fronts.

   The North first made the "sea of flames" threat at inter-Korean
   working-level talks in March 1994, prompting Seoul to specify Pyongyang as
   its " main enemy" in a national defense whitepaper.

   In the wake of the latest threat, the South Korean military strengthened
   its alert posture along the inter-Korean border. An official at the Joint
   Chiefs of Staff in Seoul said the North's military has shown no unusual
   signs, but that South Korea and the U.S. are fully operating their
   intelligence networks to monitor any movement.

   (Description of Source: Seoul Dong-A Ilbo Online in English -- English
   website carrying English summaries and full translation of vernacular hard
   copy items of the secon d-oldest major ROK daily Dong-A Ilbo, which is
   conservative in editorial orientation -- generally pro-US, anti-North
   Korea; URL: http://english.donga.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   145) Back to Top
   Seoul Set to Present Evidence At UN - JoongAng Daily Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 00:37:50 GMT
   (JOONGANG ILBO) - Seoul diplomats are waiting to see whether China and
   Russia will attend today's UN Security Council briefing at which South
   Korea will present its evidence that North Korea attacked and sank the
   Cheonan warship on March 26 - the first step to garnering international
   support to repr imand Pyongyang.

   South Korean officials and foreign experts who took part in the monthlong
   investigation into the cause of the disaster will present their evidence
   to the 15 member countries of the Security Council at United Nations
   headquarters in New York today.The South has struggled to earn
   international support to officially reprimand Pyongyang, but its efforts
   have been met with lukewarm responses from Beijing and Moscow - permanent
   members of the UN Security Council and allies of North Korea.According to
   a senior Seoul diplomat yesterday, Claude Heller, the president of the
   Security Council and Mexican ambassador to the UN, said that China has
   agreed to at least the schedule of the briefing, which will begin at 3
   p.m. New York time.Some 10 South Korean military officials and experts,
   along with experts from the United States, Britain, Canada, Australia and
   Sweden, will present the evidence they have collected to the council
   member countries and answer their que stions. Park In-kook, South Korea's
   ambassador to the United Nations, will also attend the briefing."The UN
   Security Council's discussion (on the issue) begins with the investigative
   team's briefing," said a senior South Korean government official who asked
   for anonymity.Discussions at the UN Security Council are comprised of
   formal meetings and informal consultations. Today's briefing is considered
   an "interactive dialogue" that will help set the tone of the upcoming
   meetings and consultations. "We think that there will likely be one formal
   meeting this week, which will be an important turning point to set the
   tone (of the discussions) down the road," said the official.Seoul's
   immediate goal is getting the UN Security Council to address the attack in
   as strong terms as possible, whether by an official resolution or
   less-binding presidential statement.Washington has backed Seoul's efforts
   for a "unified voice" against Pyongyang, while Russia and Beijing have
   shown less enthusiasm.Russia, which sent its own blast and submarine
   experts to Seoul earlier this month to review the results of the South
   Korean investigation, is expected to make its own conclusion in July,
   according to a senior Kremlin official quoted by Russian news agency RIA
   Novosti.China, which has deep economic and political ties with both
   Koreas, is in a trickier position, juggling growing pressure from Seoul to
   join criticism of Pyongyang and risking political tensions with the
   neighboring North. According to senior Seoul officials, Beijing is worried
   that allowing the UN council to reprimand Pyongyang would backfire,
   causing turbulence in Northeast Asia.(Description of Source: Seoul
   JoongAng Daily Online in English -- Website of English-language daily
   which provides English-language summaries and full-texts of items
   published by the major center-right daily JoongAng Ilbo, as well as unique
   reportage; distributed as an insert to the Seoul e dition of the
   International Herald Tribune; URL: http://joongangdaily.joins.com)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   146) Back to Top
   MPs Reject Commission List To Oversee South Referendum - AFP (World
   Service)
   Monday June 14, 2010 16:05:41 GMT
   (Description of Source: Paris AFP (World Service) in English -- world news
   service of the independent French news agency Agence France Presse)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of C
   ommerce.

   147) Back to Top
   TKP Column Views US Policy of Returning to Asia
   Article by Ts'ui Ning: "The United States 'Has To Change' Its Policy
   Toward Taiwan" - Ta Kung Pao Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 08:34:11 GMT
   Judging from his several important meetings in Taiwan, this time the
   American mainly brought two pieces of important information: (1) US-Taiwan
   relations guaranteed by the "Taiwan Relations Act" will not change; (2)
   the United States will give careful consideration to Taiwan's request to
   purchase F16 fighter planes. During his meeting with Ma Ying-jeou (Ma
   Yingjiu), Burghardt stressed that "US arms sales to Taiwan are very
   important to safeguarding stability in the Taiwan Strait" and that 'the
   Taiwan Relations Ac' is the corner stone for t he United States to play
   the role of safeguarding security and stability in the Taiwan Strait." In
   short, while "crossing a river in the same boat with the mainland," the
   United States will not abandon Taiwan; its policy toward Taiwan will not
   change because of the improvement of cross-Strait relations; Taiwan is
   still a small boat tied to a US aircraft carrier.

   Selecting such a time to send an inopportune message is not a stereotyped
   demonstration of the United States but an opportune declaration and
   exposition of the policy that the United States is returning to Asia.
   After the improvement of cross-Strait relations, Taiwan's contacts with
   the mainland have been close. The signing of an agreement on the framework
   for comprehensive economic cooperation will normalize cross-Strait
   contacts. For the United States, Taiwan's economic growth is not a bad
   thing, but the Americans worry that after Taiwan has become strong
   economically, its degree of dependency on the Unites States and degree of
   utilization by the United State will decline. During an earlier period, Ma
   Ying-jeou said that Taiwan "will not ask the US side to fight for it." The
   remark set off controversies in Taiwan. I believe that the remark has
   similarly made the ambitious United States full of misgivings and fear.
   The Americans do not want the strategy of cross-Strait peaceful
   development to have an impact on US interests, especially on its strategy
   of returning to Asia.

   The US government has established the policy of returning to Asia. How to
   return? The focus is naturally on East Asia. In Japan and the ROK, we can
   already feel the heavy and hurried footsteps of the Americans. Taiwan is
   an important link of the United States in Asia. The Americans are not
   willing to lose such a foothold and stepping stone without reason. At
   present, Taiwan is dependent on the United States in many areas and needs
   the United States' help. For the superpower that hopes to dominate the
   whole world, its interests in Taiwan are an indispensable part of its
   strategic interests. It has to consolidate and strengthen this interest
   chain if it wants to return to Asia.

   The "Taiwan Relations Act" is a product of the United States formulated
   under the situation of confrontation between the two sides of the Strait.
   Similarly, arms sales to Taiwan are full of blood smell. For this reason,
   stressing the "Taiwan Relations Act" and advocating arms sales to Taiwan
   are conducive to cross-Strait peaceful development. Naturally, this is
   where the US tactic and interests lie and is of no benefit to the big
   trend of cross-Strait peaceful development. Judging from the situation of
   cross-Strait peaceful development, cross-Strait economic development is
   conducive to promoting the ca use of peace, can gradually eliminate
   cross-Strait hostilities, finally eliminate confrontation, and realize
   unification. Obviously, this does not conf orm to the needs of the United
   States. The divided two sides of the Strait and a turbulent and unstable
   Asia offer the best point of penetration for the United States to return
   to Asia and are also an indispensable condition for the United States to
   have a foothold and open up new fields in Asia. Of course, the United
   States does not hope that the disappearance or change of these
   environments will affect or obstruct its pace and process of returning to
   Asia.

   On cross-Strait relations, the US government should, in accordance with
   the new situation that has changed, decide a new policy suitable to the
   changed environment. It should not sing the same old tune and again make a
   show of force. If the Americans really want to return to Asia, they should
   make peace in Asia and the safeguarding of interests in Asia as the
   prerequisite. If they think of "the good old days" with the purpose of
   dominating the whole world and even if they return to Asia at the cost of
   da maging peace, naturally the US return to Asia will not be welcomed.

   (Description of Source: Hong Kong Ta Kung Pao Online in Chinese -- Website
   of PRC-owned daily newspaper with a very small circulation; ranked low in
   "credibility" in Hong Kong opinion surveys due to strong pro-Beijing bias;
   has good access to PRC sources; URL:
   http://www.takungpao.com)Attachments:tkp0606a.pdf

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   Commerce.

   148) Back to Top
   Taiwan Democracy Rooted In Decades Of Practice: President
   By Lee Shu-hua and Deborah Kuo - Central News Agency
   Monday June 14, 2010 06:24:52 GMT
   Taipe i, June 14 (CNA) -- President Ma Ying-jeou said Monday that
   democracy has taken root in Taiwan because it has been practiced without
   break over the past six decades.

   Ma told a group of visitors from the United States that he has heard it
   said democratization is not suitable for oriental people, particularly
   Chinese, but what he has seen in Taiwan over the past several decades has
   destroyed that prejudiced view."Taiwan's democracy may be young, even
   immature, but we have made the first step forward, which may be a positive
   answer to those who may be concerned, " Ma told the U.S. group that was
   led by Nicholas Dirks, vice president and dean of the faculty of arts and
   sciences at Columbia University.The president said he is glad to see more
   and more top-notch U.S.universities paying closer attention to Taiwan's
   development.Taiwan is indeed worthy of study by academics at home and
   abroad, given the huge and drastic changes in the society over the last
   six decade s -- changes that had been seldom seen in the preceding 400
   years, he said.Over the last 60 years, he said, people in Taiwan have
   developed a unique and diverse Chinese culture, which can be attributed to
   the fact that they were allowed to fully use their wisdom and talent in a
   free, open and democratic environment."Taiwan's achievement serves as a
   significant example for people across the Taiwan Strait as well all ethnic
   Chinese around the world," Ma said.In the months ahead, the president
   said, cross-strait relations, which have been focus of attention over the
   past two years, will continue to improve. In addition, many cultural
   activities will be held in the lead up to Jan 1. 2011 when the Republic of
   China on Taiwan will celebrate its 100th founding anniversary, he
   said.Dirks and his group are in Taiwan for an academic symposium, titled
   "Taiwan in the 21st Century: Politics, Economy and Society, " sponsored by
   Columbia University's Weatherhead East As ian Institute.(Description of
   Source: Taipei Central News Agency in English -- "Central News Agency
   (CNA)," Taiwan's major state-run press agency; generally favors ruling
   administration in its coverage of domestic and international affairs; URL:
   http://www.cna.com.tw)

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   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   149) Back to Top
   Talk Of The Day -- New Model For Cross-strait Negotiations
   By Sofia Wu - Central News Agency
   Monday June 14, 2010 03:14:06 GMT
   A new model patterned after the Taiwan-U.S. Trade and Investment Framework
   Agreement (TIFA) will be introduced in negotiations across the Ta iwan
   Strait, Mainland Affairs Council Chairwoman Lai Shin-yuan confirmed in an
   interview Sunday.

   In the just-concluded third round of talks on the cross-strait economic
   cooperation framework agreement (ECFA), the two sides agreed to form a
   cross-strait economic cooperation commission to take charge of follow-up
   consultations and coordination on bilateral trade, investment and economic
   issues, according to Lai.Meanwhile, major progress was made in Sunday's
   working-level ECFA talks in Beijing, with basic consensus reached on the
   text of the agreement and its five appendices.On the contentious "early
   harvest" program that forms the backbone of the agreement, China agreed to
   offer tariff waivers or easier market access terms for 500 Taiwanese
   products and services, whereas Taiwan promised to allow similar privileges
   for 200-plus Chinese goods and services.The following are excerpts from
   local media coverage of the issue: United Daily News: According to Lai,
   the new commission to be assembled after the ECFA signing will be a
   cross-strait version of the TIFA-style engagement between Taiwan and the
   United States that was formed in the absence of official ties.The
   commission will comprise representatives from both sides, and its main
   tasks will be consultation, supervision and evaluation of ECFA-related
   affairs, Lai said."The commission will be responsible for negotiating
   ECFA-related issues, overseeing and evaluating ECFA enforcement, resolving
   disputes about the definition of ECFA clauses and dealing with relevant
   relief measures," Lai said.If necessary, the commission will be able to
   appoint special task forces to address specific issues related to the
   agreement, Lai said.It will meet once every six months but will have the
   option of holding provisional meetings at any time with the consent of
   both sides, she said.The establishment of the new commission will allow
   for refinement of the content of the ECFA and help to reali ze its goals
   progressively, Lai added. (June 14, 2010).Economic Daily News: In Sunday's
   ECFA talks, Taiwan failed to get items such as automobiles, key
   petrochemical materials, or machine tools on the early harvest list of
   goods that would qualify for tariff exemptions or reductions under the
   ECFA.This is why the two sides did not unveil the detailed "early harvest"
   list at the end of the meeting.While the number of Taiwan products on the
   early harvest list was increased from 300 to 500, the Chinese side also
   added another 100-plus items to its list of 100 through hard-nosed
   negotiations.The China products that will qualify for concessionary
   tariffs upon entry to Taiwan are mostly textiles, petrochemicals and
   machinery items.In the area of service trade, China agreed to offer better
   terms to Taiwanese banks setting up branches or establishing footholds in
   the Chinese market.Negotiators from both sides agreed Sunday that a fourth
   round of formal ECFA talks may take place simultaneously with the
   preparatory talks for the fifth Chiang-Chen meeting at which the ECFA will
   be formally signed.They also reached a tacit agreement that the ECFA
   should be concluded by the end of June or in early July so that it can
   take effect at the beginning of next year.The Chiang-Chen meeting refers
   to engagements between top cross-strait negotiators -- Straits Exchange
   Foundation Chairman Chiang Pin-kung and his Chinese counterpart, Chen
   Yunlin, president of the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan
   Straits. (June 14, 2010).Liberty Times: After the completion of the
   working-level ECFA negotiations, opponents of the agreement said Sunday
   they will launch a decade-long campaign against the pact as they are
   worried that it would "lock Taiwan into China's embrace, " making Taiwan
   more and more dependent on the Chinese market.In the first step of their
   long-term campaign, the opposition Democratic Progressive Party, the
   Taiwan Solidarity Union an d other pro-independence groups said they will
   step up preparations for a massive street protest on June 26. (June 14,
   2010).(Description of Source: Taipei Central News Agency in English --
   "Central News Agency (CNA)," Taiwan's major state-run press agency;
   generally favors ruling administration in its coverage of domestic and
   international affairs; URL: http://www.cna.com.tw)

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   150) Back to Top
   Turkey Not Fully Comply With Eliminating Human Trafficking, But Trying
   "U.S. REPORT SAYS TURKEY DOES NOT FULLY COMPLY WITH STANDARDS FOR
   ELAMINATION OF HUMAN TRAFICKING" -- AA headline - Anatolia
   Monday June 14, 2010 19:34:40 GMT
   (Description of Source: Ankara Anatolia in English -- Semi-official news
   agency; independent in content)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   151) Back to Top
   Somali commerce minister wants trials of suspected pirates held inside
   country - Radio Gaalkacyo
   Friday May 14, 2010 17:37:25 GMT
   inside country

   Text of report by Somali independent Radio Gaalkacyo on 14 MayThe commerce
   minister of the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia, Abdirashid
   Muhammad Iro, has called on the international community to allow Somali
   pirates to be tried inside the country.Speaking at a news conference in
   Mogadishu, the minister strongly condemned the move to have Somali pirates
   tried outside the country and proposed the international community to stop
   the deal. The minister mentioned that even though unrest exists in Somalia
   there are peaceful regions that pirates can be tried such as
   Puntland.Meanwhile, the commerce minister has praised Puntland regional
   administration for its role in combating piracy in the region and its
   campaign to seize illegal weapons.The statements by the Somali minister
   come at a time when many Somali pirates are being tried in abroad,
   especially in the US, Kenya, Yemen and Seychelles.(Description of Source:
   Gaalkacyo Radio Gaalkacyo in Somali )

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   152) Back to Top
   US official says Turkey conference to discuss restoring peace in Somalia -
   Radio Shabeelle
   Friday May 14, 2010 09:24:14 GMT
   Somalia

   Text of report by Somalia's private commercial Radio Shabeelle on 14
   May(Presenter) The US government has said the Somali conference to open
   soon in Turkey is not aimed at raising funds for the Transitional Federal
   Government of Somalia (TFG). Our reporter Muhammad Mahmud Timacade has the
   details.(Reporter Muhammad) Bob Carton (as heard), the highest US official
   for Somali affairs, gave an interview to the Radio Shabeelle while in
   Nairobi, Kenya. He denied that the soon to open conference in Instabul,
   the capital of Turkey, is aimed at contributing funds for the TFG, saying
   the conference will discuss restoring peace in Somalia. He said that the
   conference is aimed to support Somalia and will be attended by the
   international community, and a delegation from Somalia. The US official
   also said the key point to be discussed in the conference is restoration
   of peace in Somalia, which has been ravaged by prolonged conflict. He said
   that the meeting will also discuss the rebuilding of Somali economy.(Over
   voice of Bob's statement into Somali) The conference to be held in
   Istanbul is not for financial contribution for specific group or the TFG.
   The meeting is about restoring a long lasting peace in Somalia. The
   international community is ready to support Somalis in achieving the
   efforts of finding peace in the country. The key issue is to create an
   atmosphere of peace in Somalia and the Horn of Africa in general.(Reporter
   Muhammad ) The US official also condemned recent explosions targeting
   mosques in Somalia, saying that the acts are increasing the problems in
   Somalia. He added that the explosion could infla me the conflict in the
   country, which has been devastated by prolonged conflict, and the Horn of
   Africa.(Over voice of Bob's statement into Somali) I condemn the
   explosion. It caused a lot of suffering to the Somali civilians and caused
   a national disaster. Certainly, I condemn the explosion which occurred in
   the Somali capital, Mogadishu. The explosion is hampering the
   reconciliation efforts aimed at bringing Somalis together and create
   peace. The explosion caused more suffering to the Somalis, who were
   already in problems. The victims of the explosion were innocent people. We
   hope that efforts to restore peace and reconciliation in Somalia becomes
   successful. I hope that solution is reached for problems in Somalia during
   the Istanbul talks, whose objective is to uplift hopes for the development
   of Somalia.(Reporter Muhammad) A conference to be attended by members for
   the international community is expected to be held in Istanbul from 21 to
   23 of May. The meeting will be at tended by a delegation from the Somali
   government. Other reports say regional administrations in Somalia will
   also attend the conference.(Description of Source: Mogadishu Radio
   Shabeelle in Somali --Privately owned, commercial FM station with sister
   station in Marka, about 50 miles southwest of Mogadishu)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   153) Back to Top
   USA reportedly refuses to sign new ICC statute - Daily Monitor online
   Monday June 14, 2010 09:16:20 GMT
   Text of report by Solomon Muyita, Ismail Musala Ladu Angelo Izama entitled
   "US refuses to sign as delegates endorse crime of aggressi on" by leading
   privately-owned Ugandan newspaper The Daily Monitor website on 14
   June;newspaper subheadingThe use of violence by one state against another
   is now a crime triable by the International Criminal Court after
   delegates, following a consensus agreement, included it in the Rome
   Statute on Friday (11 June) evening.An agreement, immediately described as
   an anti-climax by human rights groups because it was soft on big powers,
   was arrived at half past midnight after close to a fortnight of diplomatic
   battles. This means that use of force in breach of the UN Charter such as
   an invasion, a bombardment, a blockade or a country allowing another state
   to use its territory to attack a third nation is now a crime.The decision
   opens the door for individual prosecutions for a fourth crime by the Court
   established in 2002. The other crimes are genocide, war crimes and crimes
   against humanity.Successful meeting"We are happy with the outcome given
   the divergent views, und er the circumstance that was the best we could
   get, and Kampala will be known for this historic moment," said Ambassador
   Mirjam Blaak one of the key Ugandan organizers of the meet yesterday
   morning.However, groups like Human Rights Watch said the Security Council
   members had complicated the entire process by seeking to retain "exclusive
   control" over the crime of aggression."ICC as a judicial body must be
   independent from the political interference of the Security Council that
   is a political organ that takes decision for political reasons," said Mr
   Richard Dicker- the director for International Justice at HRW.But politics
   did prevail at the end. It was agreed, for example, that while the court
   now has jurisdiction over a crime of aggression it had to wait for six
   months before taking its action and can only do so if the United Nations
   Security Council failed to refer such an act to The Hague.The Security
   Council can also "veto" any prosecut ion on grounds that it was
   prejudicial to international security and keep objecting with annual
   resolutions.Delegates also conceded that the crime will not apply to
   non-state parties, which like America, have refused to sign on to the ICC.
   State parties can also submit a "non-acceptance" declaration to the court
   to avoid prosecution save for where it is the Security Council that has
   referred a case."(This deal) unjustifiably solidifies blanket and
   automatic impunity of non-state parties," said Mr Ichiro Komatsu, the head
   of the Japanese delegation to Kampala.The Kampala deal also retained a
   get-out clause, an optional protocol which allows states not to subject
   their nationals to the court's jurisdiction. Thus agreements signed by say
   Washington and Kampala not to give up American citizens to the court will
   remain legal and in force.Great step forwardDr Benjamin B Ferencz, a
   professor of international law and first prosecutor of the crime of
   aggression in the Nazi Nuremberg trials, told Sunday Monitor that this is
   a great step forward in the evolution of international humanitarian
   law.During the conference Ferencz had argued that there was no
   contradiction between the Security Council and ICC since one made
   political decisions about international peace and the other tried crimes
   that resulted from a breach of such a peace.Ugandan Attorney-General, Dr
   Kidhu Makubuya told Sunday Monitor - the country had crossed a historical
   milestone."This is particularly significant because Uganda was the first
   state to make a referral and submitting itself to the jurisdiction of the
   ICC," said Dr Makubuya.(Description of Source: Kampala Daily Monitor
   online in English -- Website of the independent daily owned by the
   Kenya-based Nation Media Group; URL: http://www.monitor.co.ug)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. I nquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   154) Back to Top
   Vietnam Head Triet on Political, Economic Relations, 'Vietnam-Towns'
   Interview with Nguyen Minh Triet, president of Vietnam, conducted by Irina
   Reznik on 10 Jun 2010; place not given: "'Russia Will Ensure the Whole
   World's Security' -- Nguyen Minh Triet, President of Vietnam" - Vedomosti
   Online
   Tuesday June 15, 2010 03:11:18 GMT
   (Reznik) In one of your interviews, you answered the question of whether
   you love Russia by saying: "I did not have the chance and good fortune to
   study in the USSR as my peers did and I do not speak Russian, but then I
   love Russia very much because I used a Kalashnikov automatic rifle." Why?

   (Triet) During the war with the Americans, I w as in the South and
   personally took part in the resistance and fought in a guerrilla
   detachment. I was 18 years old when I left for the underground. First I
   participated in the legal battle in Saigon, the former capital of the old
   regime. After that became impossible, we went into the jungles to the
   resistance forces. When I was fighting, we always looked toward Hanoi, the
   beloved heart of Vietnam -- and toward the Soviet Union, where there is
   the esteemed Lenin whom we love (he wipes away tears); from there we got
   unselfish and very effective aid and support. America was very strong
   compared with Vietnam. The Vietnamese people had only patriotism and
   hatred of injustice. But it was impossible to defeat the Americans with
   just these two feelings. Thanks to the enormous, unselfish, and effective
   aid of the USSR, we were able to wage a successful struggle. And we
   believe that a great deal of the credit in our great struggle and victory
   goes to the aid of the Soviet Un ion and the Russian people. In this
   struggle we got support and aid from the entire world. But our friends for
   the most part gave us moral support, while the USSR helped us not only
   morally but materially as well.

   That is why I love Russia.

   (Reznik) But the USSR has not existed for a long time now. How do you feel
   about the present government of Premier Vladimir Putin and about President
   Dmitriy Medvedev, and which of them is closer to you in their way of
   thinking?

   (Triet) Russia is a great power, and the decisive role in the victory over
   Fascism that brought security to the entire world belonged to it. The
   significance of the great victory of the Soviet people over Fascism does
   not change over time. And Russia always helped Vietnam a great deal. Mr.
   Medvedev and Mr. Putin, the leaders of today's Russia, are great friends
   of Vietnam. And for that we are grateful both to them and to all the
   Russian people. Vietnam will always remain a true ally of Russia.

   (Reznik) So then both Putin and Medvedev are equally close to you in
   spirit?

   (Triet) Yes, both.

   (Reznik) To return to your past. You were a soldier -- at what point did
   you decide to take up politics? In the socialist countries in general, a
   soldier often becomes president. Why?

   (Triet) Because a soldier's position is patriotism and hatred of
   aggression.

   (Reznik) Dmitriy Medvedev intends to travel to the 1,000-year anniversary
   celebration of Hanoi. What will you talk about with him?

   (Triet) We are inviting Dmitriy Medvedev to visit Vietnam and attend the
   1,000-year anniversary celebration of Hanoi and the meeting between the
   Asia Pacific Region (APR) countries and Russia. This year Vietnam is the
   chairman of the APR countries. So Vietnam is inviting Russia to take part
   on behalf of the APR countries. Russia is an important strategic partner
   for Vietnam. We also want it to become just as important a partner fo r
   the APR countries as well. So we will hold a high-level reception during
   Mr. Medvedev's visit -- the same as we held for Mr. Putin when he visited
   us in 2006.

   (Reznik) And what are the possible topics of the talks?

   (Triet) There are a great many. We are strategic partners in politics. We
   consider Russia a true and reliable partner. We were true friends even
   during the most difficult moments.

   (Reznik) As I understand it, your favorite politician is Lenin. And who
   else from among Soviet or Russian figures is close to you?

   (Triet) Outside politics it is Tchaikovsky. There are many great authors
   in Russian and Soviet literature and art, but he is an example. Vietnam
   appreciates Russian literature very much because it is great literature.
   It nourishes and educates the soul not only of the Russian but also the
   Vietnamese. I am certain that Russia, which occupies one-sixth of the
   Earth, with its rich culture will take a worthy place in the world of
   politics and ensure the security of the entire world.

   (Reznik) How is military-technical cooperation with Russia developing? Has
   Vietnam agreed on a price for buying the two Gepard-139 warships from Ak
   Bars Kholding?

   (Triet) Vietnam is a peace-loving country and is making its contribution
   to the development of peace throughout the entire world. So this
   cooperation ensures the security not only of Vietnam but of the entire
   world. We very much want to improve cooperation with Russia in this area.

   (Reznik) And what is needed for that?

   (Triet) I think that above all trust is needed. In the past we have not
   had any conflicts of interest -- I am talking about the unselfish aid of
   the Soviet Union. Only cooperation based on trust can be successful. And
   Vietnam relates to Russia with great trust. And we are not asking for aid
   from Russia but are ready for cooperation on a mutually advantageous
   basis. Taking into account the strategic character of relations, we would
   like for us to offer each other certain discounts and privileges on this,
   and not only this issue.

   (Reznik) How is Vietnam cooperating with Russia within the framework of
   preparing for the Asia Pacific summit meeting?

   (Triet) There are a great many programs. We have a great deal in common
   with Russia in the international arena. In the economic area, we are
   developing our relations on the basis of respect and mutual interests.
   Many people who studied in the Soviet Union are working in Vietnam. That
   is evidence of the trust and understanding between our countries. Once
   again I want to express my gratitude to the Russian people. Yesterday,
   today, and tomorrow, all the Vietnamese people will remember this aid. The
   president of Russia is a great friend of the Vietnamese people. He is
   making a very great contribution to the cause of strengthening the
   friendship between Vietnam and Russia.

   (Reznik) You intend to orga nize a Vietnamese village in Kalmykia --
   Nguyen-Taun (Nguyen-Town). Could you tell about this project?

   (Triet) A great many Vietnamese citizens live and work in Russia. Some
   live and work legally and make a concrete contribution to the development
   of Russia's economy and relations between Russia and Vietnam. Others are
   having difficulties since they cannot legalize their stay and work in
   Russia. But one thing unites both these groups -- love of Russia and the
   desire to work. We were looking for a way to legalize the second group.
   The essential fact about Vietnam-Town is that they will receive land in
   Kalmykia to lease for 99 years and will be able to move there, build
   housing, work, and pay taxes to Kalmykia's budget. This idea occurred
   simultaneously to both me and (President of Kalmykia) Kirsan Ilyumzhinov.
   At the meeting with him, I was about to propose such an idea when he
   personally expressed the desire for Vietnamese people to come to Kalmykia.
   The pop ulation density in Vietnam is 270 people per square kilometer,
   while in Kalmykia it is 0.5 people. If this project is realized, I will
   definitely erect a monument to Kirsan Ilyumzhinov.

   (Reznik) And in what other regions of Russia are such Vietnam-towns
   possible? For example, in Moscow there are a great many illegal res idents
   of Vietnam who work in the markets.

   (Triet) I think that Kalmykia is only the first step. I hope that
   Vietnamese from Moscow will move here too. All the favorable conditions
   are here. I hope that Vietnamese citizens will show responsibility and a
   feeling of solidarity.

   (Reznik) Many major Russian companies are doing business in Vietnam. Are
   you satisfied with how they are doing business? In what spheres might they
   count on the support of the country's leadership?

   (Triet) I welcome Russian companies that want to do business in Vietnam.
   We are willing to share the difficulties with them. I want you to tell
   them th at if there are any difficulties, we are willing to meet and
   discuss, listen to, and when possible resolve their problems. And I would
   also like to say that the difficulties may be temporary, do not give up. A
   Vietnamese saying goes: the closer you are to victory, the more
   difficulties there are. As president of Vietnam, I am willing to listen to
   their difficulties myself. Because investors are Vietnam's friends and we
   cannot abandon them at the halfway point.

   (Reznik) Right now amendments to Vietnam's legislation are being prepared
   so that foreign investors will be able to own more than 49% of the stock.
   Is Vietnam's government willing to sell Russian private investors
   controlling stakes in companies being privatized? For example, with the
   privatization of the largest Vietnamese cell phone operator GTel?

   (Triet) The policy of the Vietnamese government is to retain more than 50%
   of the stock for itself. We ourselves must regulate the process. I think
   that in this situation Vietnam is no exception, and other countries behave
   in a similar way. The only question is efficiency.

   (Reznik) Are you satisfied with the cooperation with Vympelkom? Some
   people think that the company may leave the telecommunications market.

   (Triet) I do not have concrete information on individual projects. But
   this is the principle: we support all Russian projects and are willing to
   help companies get out of difficult situations. Because relations with
   Russia are a priority task for us.

   (Reznik) Kamaz opened an assembly plant in Vietnam. AvtoVAZ was also
   talking about some projects. Is it implementing anything?

   (Triet) It is hard for me to comment on particular projects.

   (Reznik) And how are projects to build the four atomic power plants going?
   It was contemplated that Russians would build two of them, and the
   Japanese -- two.

   (Triet) Russia has the priority, but so far we have not given anyone a n
   answer. That confirms that we have friendly relations with Russia.

   (Reznik) Is it true that Gruppa Ye4 may become the consultant for the
   construction of the AES's (atomic power plants)?

   (Triet) A consultant is essential during the construction of such a
   project. We need three things. In the first place, we need an
   intergovernmental agreement on construction of this project. Such an
   agreement will permit the authorized organs of both parties to begin
   active work. Second is an agreement on training personnel. Our specialists
   have not yet reached the level to manage such projects, so we want Russia
   to help us. Third is an agreement on financing. The budget contemplated
   for the project is $12 billion. Russia can loan us some part and we
   ourselves must provide some part. These three issues are very urgent. We
   raised these topics at the meeting with Minister of Foreign Affairs
   (Sergey) Lavrov.

   (Reznik) The Russian companies Alltech and Rucom ar e creating a fund to
   implement telecommunications investment projects on Vietnam's territory.
   Can you talk about this fund?

   (Triet) There is no concrete information, but we support investments in
   projects involving telecommunications and high technologies.

   (Reznik) And what projects in Russia interest Vietnamese companies? Oil
   and gas? Power engineering?

   (Triet) We are now oriented to our ow n development, and at this point we
   have limited possibilities for investments abroad; there are just a few.
   We have many investment projects in Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar --
   neighboring countries that are similar to us. Russia is at a higher level
   of development. But two days ago I was present at the start of
   construction on a Vietnamese commercial shopping project in Moscow. I can
   say that this is a fairly large project and its cost is more than $100
   million.

   (Reznik) Do Vietnamese companies really have no interest in oil and gas
   deposits in Russ ia? I heard that Vietnam received a share in small
   deposits in the YaNAO (Yamalo-Nenetsk Autonomous Okrug) as a condition for
   extending the contract with Zarubezhneft and Vietsovpetro. What kind of
   deposits are they?

   (Triet) Yes, that is true. Within the framework of the joint venture with
   Zarubezhneft, Petrovietnam works in Nenetsk Okrug, and Vietsovpetro, the
   company you know, works in Vietnam. We believe that this is a very
   successful project in the area of oil and gas. It is successful not only
   on the economic level but on the political as well. We are expanding the
   Vietnamese state company's presence in the development of the deposits in
   Russia, as well as jointly participating in oil and gas projects in third
   countries.

   (Reznik) It is surprising how you are managing to combine a socialist
   order with a market economy. Vietnam is in 20th place in terms of growth
   in GDP, while Russia, for example, is in 200th.

   (Triet) The comparison with Rus sia is not quite appropriate. Rapid
   development is natural because Vietnam was completely destroyed by the
   war. Russia is altogether different -- you are stable and you have already
   reached a certain high level of development, so your economy grows more
   slowly. Vietnam's economy is undeveloped, so such growth can be explained.
   Your economy cannot have the growth that Vietnam does.

   We ourselves did not even expect such rapid growth in Vietnam. But over
   time we realized that a market economy is a common human practice rather
   than just someone's invention. So we are going in the direction of a
   market economy with a socialist orientation.

   (Reznik) It is truly an art. Couldn't you cite an example of how this is
   possible? On the one hand, the state retains the controlling stake in all
   business projects, but on the other -- you are somehow attracting foreign
   investors. By doing what? Lowering taxes and administrative barriers?

   (Triet) Above all we s trictly comply not only with Vietnam's laws but
   international laws as well. Especially the laws of the WTO. Vietnam is an
   official member of this organization. But at the same time, as a state we
   stimulate those directions that bring benefit to the country and restrict
   those that in our opinion do not bring such benefit. We comply with the
   requirements of the WTO, but in Vietnamese conditions. We are for Russia
   becoming a member of the WTO, but we would like Russia to preserve its
   specific features.

   A market economy operates by the law of the market. Our government has
   mastered this well. We cannot adopt only administrative edicts and laws.
   Ideology is all well and good, but business is business. The state upholds
   only the law and respects the interests of everyone who is working.

   (Reznik) In 2025 the population in Vietnam will be as large as the Russian
   population is today. What do you think, what level should your country
   reach by that time?

   (Triet) We believe that we can learn a lot from Russia. In a few decades,
   Vietnam's population will indeed catch up to Russia's population. But we
   will not manage to catch up in terms of the economy, I am afraid. Because,
   I think, Russia will not stop and wait until Vietnam catches up to it. The
   Russian people are a great people. And you have enormous resources and
   potential.

   (Reznik) Do many Russians live in Vietnam, and where do they work?

   (Triet) An ample number. Most of them have become my fri ends. They are
   investing in Vietnam. There are people who create families with Vietnamese
   and stay for good.

   (Reznik) All the same Russia is not among Vietnam's major partners, but
   America is. Why?

   (Triet) China, Japan, and America are our major partners. The European
   Community, and after that Russia. America has invested $20 billion in
   Vietnam's economy, and Russia -- $2 billion. We have been working with
   America based on the principle of closing the past and aiming toward the
   future. The past is closed and we are developing economic relations, but
   at this point American companies are not investing so very much. The
   Americans are very cautious; they invest their money gradually.

   There is an explanation for Russia's not being on the list of main
   partners. Fundamental changes occurred in Russia in the 1990s, and time is
   needed to reach stable development. It did not manage to get into the
   Vietnamese market when the Americans and Chinese were going there.

   But then Russian tourists in Vietnam occupy a special place -- they pay an
   average of two or three times more than Europeans. And we are setting the
   task of developing tourism as one of the priority directions of the
   economy.

   (Reznik) Why were there no changes in Vietnam in the 1990s such as those
   in Russia?

   (Triet) Vietnam was simply lucky that we did not have such upheavals. The
   USSR was the flagship of the world proleta riat and the country was under
   strong pressure from the outside, while no attention was paid to us at
   that time and we had time to maneuver and to rebuild our economic system.

   (Reznik) What country is close to your ideal in terms of its system?

   (Triet) Every people has a right to choose its path of development for
   itself. China, Vietnam, and Laos, in my view, are following the path of a
   market economy with a socialist orientation. Cuba has serious difficulties
   because of the blockade and isolation, but social care there is very good,
   especially in education and medicine.

   (Reznik) What effect did the world financial crisis have on Vietnam's
   economy?

   (Triet) It had a serious effect, but we managed to make timely decisions
   to preserve the rate of development. Exports were limited because of the
   crisis, and we encouraged other spheres, above all the agrarian one. At
   the same time, we conducted a policy of social support of the population,
   and these measures helped weaken the influence of the world crisis.

   (Reznik) What is the average income per capita in Vietnam?

   (Triet) It is $1,200, but every year we plan 6% or 7% growth in the
   economy -- and income should rise in the same way.

   (Description of Source: Moscow Vedomosti Online in Russian -- Website of
   respected daily business paper owned by the Finnish Independent Media
   Company; published jointly with The Wall Street Journal and Financial
   Times; URL: http://www.vedomosti.ru/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   155) Back to Top
   Analysts Urge Zimbabweans To Find Ways To Lift Self-Imposed Sanctions on
   State
   Article by Kholwani Nyathi: "US Impo sed Sanctions: Facts and Fiction" -
   The Standard Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 14:47:36 GMT
   (Description of Source: Harare The Standard Online in English -- Website
   of privately owned weekly critical of ZANU-PF and aimed at the
   middle-to-upper segment; URL: http://www.thestandard.co.zw)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   156) Back to Top
   Third Round Of Talks On Child Adoption Deal Begins - ITAR-TASS
   Tuesday June 15, 2010 01:05:21 GMT
   intervention)

   NEW YORK, June 15 (Itar-Tass) - The third round of Russian-American talks
   on a new international adoption agreement opened at the level of experts
   at the U.S. State Department on Monday.U.S. State Department spokesperson
   Phillip Crawley said that the main aim of the talks was to work out a deal
   that would provide for more reliable protective mechanisms for children
   and families in the process of adoption.A court hearing into the case of
   Russian boy Vanya Skorobogatov that was held in the York County
   (Pennsylvania) on Monday proved how urgent the problem really is.
   Seven-year-old Vanya died tragically in the United States in the summer of
   2009. His adoptive parents, Michael and Nanette Cravers, were charged with
   criminal homicide under aggravating circumstances and are now standing
   trial. However, none of the two pleaded guilty at Monday's hearing.Asked
   by the judge whether the defendants considered themselves to be guilty,
   the Cravers' lawyer answered that they didn't. Both Michael and Nanette
   kept silent.At the same time, t he York County prosecutor confirmed that
   he would continues demanding a 'death penalty' for the Cravers, given the
   boy's age and the misery he had to tolerate while living with his adoptive
   parents.The next court hearing on Vanya Skorobogatov's case is scheduled
   for September 22.Sergei Logachev, a counsellor of the Russian General
   Consulate in New York, told Itar-Tass on Monday that the court was
   expected to announce the final verdict on September 22.(Description of
   Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   157) Back to Top
   Russia Calls For Drafting OSCE Concept Against Drug Trafficking -
   ITAR-TASS
   Monday June 14, 2010 19:42:45 GMT
   intervention)

   VIENNA, June 14 (Itar-Tass) -- Russia urged the Organisation for Security
   and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to draft a concept against illegal drug
   trafficking.Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko, who spoke
   at the Annual OSCE Conference in Vienna on Monday, said it should be a
   concept that would "determine the goals and principles of cooperation
   between the states and forms of the OSCE contribution to global
   efforts.""Russia, like many other countries, faces the threats of
   terrorism, illegal drug trafficking and other forms of organised crime in
   the harshest way.We consistently call for stepping up the potential of the
   OSCE in the fight against these phenomena.We are satisfied with the strong
   consensus on these matters in the OSCE," the diplomat said.He welcomed the
   position of the United States and the European Unio n that calls for
   "engaging the OSCE in the right against the threat of illegal
   drugs".(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main
   government information agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   158) Back to Top
   Senior US Official to Visit Seoul This Week - Chosun Ilbo Online
   Tuesday June 15, 2010 01:37:54 GMT
   (CHOSUN ILBO) - Kurt Campbell, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for
   East Asian and Pacific Affairs, is expected to arrive in Seoul on
   Wednesday.

   During his two-day trip Campbell is scheduled to meet with Vice Foreign
   Minister Chun Yung-woo and top nucl ear envoy Wi Sung-lac to discuss the
   sinking of the Navy corvette Cheonan, which is under review at the UN
   Security Council.Meanwhile, China's Vice Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai
   visited Seoul on Saturday for talks with Korean officials over the
   November G20 summit which will be held in Seoul and China's stance on the
   shipwreck of the Cheonan.(Description of Source: Seoul Chosun Ilbo Online
   in English -- English website carrying English summaries and full
   translations of vernacular hard copy items of the largest and oldest daily
   Chosun Ilbo, which is conservative in editorial orientation -- strongly
   nationalistic, anti-North Korea, and generally pro-US; URL:
   http://english.chosun.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   159) Back to Top&lt; /a&gt;
   US Troops in ROK Invited To Participate in Cultural Tours
   Updated version: modifying headline, adding metadeta, adding cross ref;
   Yonhap headline: "U.S. Troops in S. Korea Invited to Participate in
   Cultural Tours" - Yonhap
   Tuesday June 15, 2010 01:25:48 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   160) Back to Top
   People's Daily Online: 'US Must Restrain Provocative Military Actions'
   Unattributed report: &amp;quo t;US Must Restrain Provocative Military
   Actions"; headline as provided by source - Renmin Ribao
   Monday June 14, 2010 07:13:35 GMT
   China does not object to the U.S. navy's presence in the western Pacific
   and even shows understanding that some countries in this region still need
   the U.S. military to provide a sense of security. And no country has the
   capability to replace the United States in this capacity. But, this does
   not mean the United States can ignore China's self-esteem and drive their
   aircraft carrier straight to the front of China's doorstep to flex their
   muscles.Only when the United States learns to respect the western Pacific
   countries and adapt to the changes of their politics, economies and, in
   particular, public opinion, can its authority in this region be
   recognized. The United States should make people feel that the U.S.
   military presence in this region is peaceful and necessary, not vice
   versa.Furthermore, the United States needs to take into account these
   countries' moods if it wants to become a peacemaker, not a troublemaker.
   Otherwise, the United States will have difficulties in staying in the
   region for a long time and its interests here will be difficult to
   effectively protect.China never considers the United States an enemy, but
   the United States should show necessary respect to China. The provocative
   military drill will only lead to the accumulation of resentment against
   the United States in the hearts of Chinese people and the United States
   will inevitably be regarded as a threat.BOTh sides should cherish the
   bilateral ties and pay heed to the feelings of the two peoples. Don't let
   risky moves destroy the mutual trust of the two peoples. If the future
   U.S. strategy is to learn respect and equality, as Barack Obama has said,
   then the military actions in the western Pacific region must be restrained
   and provocation must not be a llowed to happen again.

   (Description of Source: Beijing People's Daily Online in English --
   Internet-only English version of Renmin Ribao, the daily newspaper of the
   CPC Central Committee. URL: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   161) Back to Top
   Accumulated Sales of Hyundai Sonata Sedan 'Tops' 5 Million Units
   Yonhap headline: "Accumulated Sales of Hyundai Sonata Sedan Tops 5 Mln" -
   Yonhap
   Monday June 14, 2010 03:26:14 GMT
   said Monday it has sold more than 5 million units of its mid-size Sonata
   sedan worldwide, a feat achieved 25 years after the first Sonata was
   rolled out in 1985.

   Some 2.7 million units of various Sonata models, from the very first
   Sonata to the latest sixth-generation Sonata, locally known as the Sonata
   YF, were sold here while the rest were sold overseas, including 1.3
   million units in the United States."The Sonata is the very history of
   South Korea's mid-size sedans that enjoyed the great affection of
   customers for the past 25 years, even called the best sedan of South
   Korea," a Hyundai executive said.The Sonata is only the third South Korean
   vehicle to reach accumulated global sales of 5 million units, following
   the Accent and the Avante, both also by Hyundai Motor, the company
   said.Continuing the long history of the vehicle, Hyundai Motor will begin
   selling its new Sonata 2011 this week.The new Sonata has an improved gas
   mileage with a motor-driven power steering system, according to Hyundai
   Motor.The local price of the Sonata 2011 with a 2.0-liter engine was set
   at 21.7 million won (US$17,670) with that of the premium model with a
   2.4-liter engine carrying a price tag of 30 million won.Hyundai Motor is
   also set to introduce the next generation hybrid Sonata in the second half
   of the year, according to the Hyundai executive.(Description of Source:
   Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news agency of the ROK; URL:
   http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   162) Back to Top
   ROK Trade Surplus With US Narrows in Jan-May Period
   Updated version: rewording headline, adjusting tags; Unattributed report:
   "Korea's Trade Surplus With U.S. Narrows in Jan.-may" - JoongAng Daily
   Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 02:35:44 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul JoongAng Daily Online in English -- Website
   of English-language daily which provides English-language summaries and
   full-texts of items published by the major center-right daily JoongAng
   Ilbo, as well as unique reportage; distributed as an insert to the Seoul
   edition of the International Herald Tribune; URL:
   http://joongangdaily.joins.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   163) Back to Top
   Prosecution System to Reform For Enhanced Transparency - Chosun Ilbo
   Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 02:15:33 GMT
   (CHOSUN ILBO) - State prosecutors plan to adopt a U.S.-style grand jury
   system that will hand over prosecutors' exclusive indictment rights to a
   panel of citizens.

   Prosecutor General Kim Joon-gyu also said Friday that independent special
   prosecutors will now be in charge of cases involving prosecutors, and
   designated citizens will serve as jurors making legally binding
   decisions.The moves are part of the prosecution's self-reform efforts in
   light of public criticism that prosecutors who were involved in a bribery
   scandal that came to light in April were eventually let off the hook with
   light punishments.(Description of Source: Seoul Chosun Ilbo Online in
   English -- English website carrying English summaries and full
   translations of vernacular hard copy items of the largest and oldest daily
   Chosun Ilbo, which is conservative in editorial orientation -- strongly
   nationalistic, anti-North Korea, and generally pro-US; URL:
   http://english.chosun.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   164) Back to Top
   Korea's Trade Surplus With U.S. Narrows in Jan.-may - JoongAng Daily
   Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 00:37:43 GMT
   (JOONGANG ILBO) - Korea's trade surplus with the United States so far this
   year reached less than a quarter of that registered a year earlier due to
   a sharp import increase from the U.S., data showed yesterday.

   Korea's exports to the U.S. stood at $3.89 billion in April with imports
   coming to $3.2 billion, bringing the trade balance to a surplus of $690
   million in one month, the U.S. Department of Commerce data, released by
   Korea's foreign ministry, showed.For the January-April period this year,
   Korea's accumulated trade surplus with the country came to $1.2 billion
   after shipping out $13.82 billion and bringing in $12.62 billion worth of
   goods, according to the data.The surplus recorded for the four months
   marks a 76 percent decline from $5 billion during the same four months in
   2009.The drastic fall came as Korea's inbound shipment grew sharply amid
   an economic recovery while its exports remained little changed.Local
   exports to the U.S. grew just $1.08 billion on-year to $13.82 billion in
   the first four months of this year. Inbound shipment jumped $4.89 billion
   to $12.62 billion, according to the data.In terms of key trading sectors,
   Korea's trade surplus reached $1.43 billion in information technology
   goods during the January-April period, with the surplus in the automobile
   and auto parts trade with the U.S. reaching $3.01 billion, the data
   showed.(Description of Source: Seoul JoongAng Daily Online in English --
   Website of English-language daily which provides English-language
   summaries and full-texts of items published by the major center-right
   daily JoongAng Ilbo, as well as unique reportage; distributed as an insert
   to the Seoul edition of the International Herald Tribune; URL:
   http://joongangdaily.joins.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   165) Back to Top
   Chinese FTA a Bittersweet Prospect
   "Viewpoint" column by Song E-young, a professor of economics at Sogang
   University and Translation by the JoongAng Daily staff: "Chinese FTA a
   Bittersweet Prospect" - JoongAng Daily Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 00:43:48 G MT
   (Description of Source: Seoul JoongAng Daily Online in English -- Website
   of English-language daily which provides English-language summaries and
   full-texts of items published by the major center-right daily JoongAng
   Ilbo, as well as unique reportage; distributed as an insert to the Seoul
   edition of the International Herald Tribune; URL:
   http://joongangdaily.joins.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   166) Back to Top
   KT Hits a Wi-fi Milestone - JoongAng Daily Online
   Monday June 14, 2010 00:37:48 GMT
   (JOONGANG ILBO) - With the rising popular ity of smartphones, Korean
   mobile service operators have been rushing to add wireless Internet hot
   spots across the country.

   The main reason is simple: having an ample amount of Wi-Fi zones - which
   allow users to access the Internet on the devices - can help companies
   lure more customers to their phones and services. A major selling point
   for smartphones, after all, is their ability to connect to the Web.KT,
   Korea's No. 2 mobile service operator, is leading the way in wireless hot
   spots, announcing yesterday that it now has roughly 21,000 Wi-Fi zones -
   which it claims is the most in the industry. AT&amp;amp;T, the leading Wi-Fi
   service provider in the United States, currently has 20,000
   hotspots."We've ushered in a new era where Wi-Fi connection is available
   to nearly everyone, everywhere," said Lee Dae-san, KT's wireless network
   division head.KT plans to add about 6,000 more zones in spots at Incheon
   International Airport, expressway rest stops, CGV movie t heaters, GS
   Caltex gas stations and GS retail convenience stores, among other
   areas.With SK Telecom building some 10,000 Wi-Fi hotspots, telecom firms
   here will offer a total of 37,000 wireless Internet zones by the end of
   the year.(Description of Source: Seoul JoongAng Daily Online in English --
   Website of English-language daily which provides English-language
   summaries and full-texts of items published by the major center-right
   daily JoongAng Ilbo, as well as unique reportage; distributed as an insert
   to the Seoul edition of the International Herald Tribune; URL:
   http://joongangdaily.joins.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   167) Back to Top
   Accumulated Sales of Hyundai Sonata Sedan Tops 5 Mln - Yonhap
   Sunday June 13, 2010 23:24:12 GMT
   Hyundai Motor-Sonata sales

   Accumulated sales of Hyundai Sonata sedan tops 5 mlnSEOUL, June 14
   (Yonhap) -- Hyundai Motor Co., South Korea's top automaker, said Monday it
   has sold more than 5 million units of its mid-size Sonata sedan worldwide,
   a feat achieved 25 years after the first Sonata was rolled out in
   1985.Some 2.7 million units of various Sonata models, from the very first
   Sonata to the latest sixth-generation Sonata, locally known as the Sonata
   YF, were sold here while the rest were sold overseas, including 1.3
   million units in the United States."The Sonata is the very history of
   South Korea's mid-size sedans that enjoyed the great affection of
   customers for the past 25 years, even called the best sedan of South
   Korea," a Hyundai executive said.The Sonata is only the third South Korean
   vehicle to reac h accumulated global sales of 5 million units, following
   the Accent and the Avante, both also by Hyundai Motor, the company
   said.Hyundai Motor is set to introduce the next generation hybrid Sonata
   in the second half of the year, according to the Hyundai
   executive.(Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial
   news agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   168) Back to Top
   Israeli Gov't OKs Flotilla Inquiry Panel; Netanyahu Notes Goals, Briefs EU
   Leaders - Israel -- OSC Summary
   Monday June 14, 2010 10:14:12 GMT
   Roni Sofer reports in Tel Aviv Ynetnews in English, centrist news site
   operated by Yedi'ot Media Group, at 0936 GMT: "The government has
   unanimously voted in favor of establishing a commission of inquiry to
   probe the IDF raid on a Gaza-bound aid flotilla on May 31. Minister
   Yisrael Katz said during the meeting on the matter that the committee
   constitutes 'compromise and coercion' and compared it to the World Cup.
   'We are playing defense. The committee will not improve our standing in
   the world,' he said." Probe Panel Members Experienced, 'Very Elderly'
   Itamar Eichner's report on page 4 of independent, centrist,
   largest-circulation Tel Aviv Yedi'ot Aharonot in Hebrew adds: "It took two
   weeks, but in the end the prime minister succeeded in putting together a
   committee to investigate the flotilla events. Its members are experienced
   experts, very elderly, and not very well known to the general public. The
   committee will be chaired by retired Supreme Court judge Yaakov Turkel,
   75. Alongside him will sit Professor Shabtai Rosen, 93 -- an expert in
   international law, Israel Prize laureate in legal science and Hague Prize
   laureate in international law, and Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Horev, former
   president of the Technion.""Sources in the Prime Minister's Bureau noted
   last night that the initiative was coordinated with the US
   administration." Netanyahu Briefs European Leaders on Turkel Commission
   Roni Sofer's 0735 GMT report in Ynetnews notes: "Prime Minister Benjamin
   Netanyahu opened a Cabinet meeting Monday called in order to discuss the
   committee elected to investigate the IDF raid on a Gaza-bound aid
   flotilla.""He also told the ministers present at the meeting that he had
   called several European leaders and briefed them on the decision to
   establish the Turkel committee, in order to clarify that the international
   community supports Israel's decision. The leaders included German
   Chancellor Angela Merkel, British Prime Ministe r David Cameron, Spanish
   Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero and Quartet envoy Tony
   Blair.""A number of ministers discussed the committee before the meeting
   was convened. Minister Yossi Peled of the Likud said there was much to
   investigate and that the committee would provide an adequate answer to
   this need. Minister Daniel Hershkowitz of Habayit Hayehudi said the Turkel
   committee had been given the power to provide the international community
   with a response to its claims, but 'that which interests us needs to be
   investigated only in internal forums'. Minister Moshe Kahlon said that
   Israel's allies, the US and Canada, supported the move. 'The decision will
   create a balance between the international demand for a committee and the
   Israeli government's obligation to protect the IDF,' he said." MK:
   Commission Aims 'To Clear Israel of Guilt' Also reporting in Ynetnews,
   Sharon Rofe-Ofir adds at 0728 GMT: "Knesset Member Hanin Zoabi (Balad),
   who took pa rt in the flotilla aimed at breaking the Gaza siege, said the
   commission of inquiry into the deadly Navy raid was 'aimed, even before
   its establishment, to clear Israel of guilt in the criminal piracy act
   against the freedom sail. 'The committee is replacing the failed PR robe
   with a so-called legal robe, which will also fail in bringing out the
   truth,' she added."

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.
</description>
    <date>2010-06-15 12:30:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/813629_usa-united-states-americas-.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>translations@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>814122</id>
    <title>USA/UNITED STATES/AMERICAS
</title>
    <description>   Table of Contents for United States

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   1) Terrorist Threat Remains After US Withdrawal From Afghanistan
   To request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735; or email: oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   2) US Secretary of State Presents ROK as Lesson for Afghan Policy
   The following is a lead item, which "UPDATES with senator's comments in
   last two paras" per source update; Report by Lee Chi-dong: "(LEAD) Clinton
   Presents S. Korea as Lesson For Afghan Policy"
   3) Iranian Military Developments, 13-22 June 2011
   4) FYI -- Iran's Al-Alam TV Discusses Withdrawal of US Forces From
   Afghanistan
   5) Urdu Press Roundup Views Shahzad Murder, Criticism Over Army's Role
   The following is a roundup of excerpts from 14 articles published in the
   19 June editions of 10 Urdu-language dailies on Sal im Shahzad's murder,
   the Abbottabad and Kharotabad incidents, and criticism over the Army's
   role
   6) NATO Central Asia Policy Eyed, Expanded US Troop Deployment There Seen
   Report by Viktoriya Panfilova, under the rubric "Today: The CIS": "NATO Is
   Preparing an Intervention in Central Asia"
   7) Time Works for Taliban Against United States in Afghan Mission
   Commentary by Czech Radio analyst Milan Slezak: "Afghanistan: Time Works
   for Taliban; US Wars in Time of Cuts"
   8) Obama Pullout Plan Triggers German Debate; Ministers, Military Disagree
   on Date
   Report by Matthias Gebauer: "Afghanistan War: Obama's Plan Fires up German
   Withdrawal Debate"
   9) French pullout to take place in consultation with Afghan authorities
   10) French to begin Afghan pullout with timetable comparable to US one
   11) Joint Bulgaria, Serbia n, US Exercises Open at Novo Selo Military
   Training Range
   "Bulgarian, US, Serbian Military Train Together at Novo Selo" -- BTA
   headline
   12) US, Afghan Helicopter Pilots To Train at Czech Airport
   "U.S., Afghan Helicopter Pilots To Train at Czech Airport" -- CTK headline
   13) Czech Commentary Argues Afghanistan, Libya 'Indicative' of US
   'Anti-War Trend'
   Commentary by Daniel Anyz: "American Wars in Times of Austerity. Libya:
   United States Does Not Enjoy Going to War One Little Bit Any More."
   14) Political Consideration Leads to US Pullout From Afghanistan
   International Observation by Xinhua Washington reporters Wang Fengfeng, Du
   Jing and Kabul reporters Yan Liang and Zhang Jianhua: "US Troop Pullout
   From Afghanistan Mainly Out of Political Consideration"
   15) Xinhua 'Analysis': 'Tough Time' Ahead of Afghan Forces as US Begins
   Troops Pull Out&lt; br&gt;Updated version: rewording subject line for clarity,
   adding Urgent topic tag; Xinhua "Analysis": "Tough Time Ahead of Afghan
   Forces as U.S. Begins Troops Pull Out"
   16) Obama Afghan Withdrawal Plan Reflects Concern about Cost
   Commentary by Corine Lesnes: "Afghanstan: 10,000 Fewer US Troops by End of
   2012"
   17) Obama's Afghan Withdawal Decision Dictated by 'Domestic Politics'
   Editorial: "Time for NATO To Withdraw from Afghanistan"
   18) Article Asks US to Focus on Pakistans Security Concerns on
   Afghanistan, India
   Article by Khalid Khokhar: Addressing Pakistans security concerns
   19) Article Criticizes US, NATO for Targeting Energy Rich Countries
   Article by Iftekhar A Khan: "Just seven years on Fleeting moments"
   20) Iraq -- Limited Reaction to POTUS Speech on US Troop Withdrawal from
   Afghanistan
   21) US Troop Withdrawal From Afghanistan 'Propaganda Stunt'
   interview with Rudik Iskuzhin, cochairman of Russian Federation Council
   group for cooperation with Afghan National Assembly, by Igor Yavlyanskiy;
   place, date not given: "'United States Will Retain Influence in
   Afghanistan After Troop Withdrawal.' Situation in Country Will Develop
   According to Iraqi Scenario, Senator Rudik Iskuzhin Believes" -- for
   assistance with multimedia elements, contact the OSC Customer Center at
   (800) 205-8615 or OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov
   22) USA Will Not Let Allies Flee From Afghanistan - Russian Envoy To NATO
   23) Al-Jazirah, Al-Arabiyah Sites: Readers See US Pullout From Afghanistan
   'Defeat'
   24) PRC Expects 'Stable' Security Power Transition in Afghanistan
   Updated version: rewording subject line for clarity, adding Urgent topic
   tags; Xinhua: "China Expects Steady Paced Security Power Transition in
   Afghanistan: FM Spokesman"
   25) Mediators Hope Parties in Karabakh Conflict Will Finalize Work on
   Settlement Principles
   26) Russia and the EU
   "Russia And the Eu" -- Jordan Times Headline
   27) Czech Commentary Argues German Pressure Reduces Probability of Nuclear
   Project
   Commentary by Michal Snobr, analyst with J&amp;amp;T: "Will CEZ Ever Complete
   Temelin?"
   28) Indonesian Economic Press 17 Jun 11
   To request additional processing, contact the OSC Customer Center at (800)
   205-8615 or OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   29) UK Arabic Press 23 Jun 11
   The following lists selected items from the UK Arabic Press on 23 Jun 11.
   To request additional processing, contact the OSC Customer Center at (800)
   205-8615 or OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   30) Czech Republic Press 23 Jun 11
   The following lists selected items from the Czech Republic pr ess on 23
   Jun. To request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
   31) US troops withdrawal may cause new problems in Afghanistan - Russian
   MP
   Corrected version: Correcting time from 0600 to 0700 GMT
   32) Article Says India's 'Duplicity' Making Talks With Pakistan
   'Fruitless'
   Article by Sajjad Shaukat: "Fruitless Dialogue With India"
   33) Afghan Defence Ministry welcomes Obama's troops withdrawal plan
   34) Xinhua 'Feature': Afghans in Hopes, Concerns as US Forces To Draw Down
   in Jul
   Xinhua "Feature": "War-Weary Afghans in Hopes, Concerns as U.S. Forces To
   Draw Down in July"
   35) Imran Khan Says US Talks With Taliban Affirm Party's Old Stance
   Report by staff reporter: "Imran Khan Offers Mediation for US-Taliban
   Talks"
   36) Iran's Press TV leads with US -related stories on 23 June
   37) Afghan Taleban describe Obama's troops withdrawal announcement
   symbolic
   38) Afghan Taleban say US troops withdrawal plan symbolic announcement
   39) USA regards Afghanistan as base for attack against Iran - Russian
   observer
   40) Editorial Critical of NATO Strikes on Residential Buildings in Libya
   Editorial: The NATO Victims in Libya
   41) US Approves Increased Military Expenditure for 2012
   KCNA headline: "U.S. Increases Military Expenditure"
   42) Belgian Editorial Welcomes US Plan for Gradual Withdrawal from
   Afghanistan
   Editorial by Christophe Lamfalussy: "Returning Afghanistan to the Afghans"
   43) Analyst Comments on Insurgency Fear After US Afghanistan Withdrawal
   Words within double slantlines are in English; For a video of this
   program, contact OSC at (800)205-86 15 or GSG_VSD@rccb.osis.gov.
   44) News Roundup 22, 23 Jun
   45) Chicago To Host G8, NATO Summits in 2012
   Xinhua by Ted Regencia: "Chicago To Host G8, NATO Summits in 2012"
   46) Xinhua 'Roundup': Afghan Public Shows Mixed Reaction Towards U.S.
   Forces Pulling Out
   Xinhua "Roundup": "Afghan Public Shows Mixed Reaction Towards U.S. Forces
   Pulling Out"
   47) Xinhua 'Roundup': 'Obama Lays Out Afghanistan Troops Drawdown'
   Xinhua "Roundup": "Obama Lays Out Afghanistan Troops Drawdown"
   48) ROK Government Said 'Worried' About Rise in Rocket Attacks on ROK's
   Afghan Base
   49) Bolivia Press 23 June 11
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   50) The Need For Nuclear Power Strategy
   "Viewpoint" column by Kim Kyung-min , a professor of political science and
   diplomacy at Hanyang University: "The Need For Nuclear Power Strategy"
   51) US Envoy Tells B-H Presidency Chair Dodik Must Step Down by Year's End
   Report by I. Maric: "Moon Told Radmanovic That Milorad Dodik Must Go"
   52) Syrian Press 23 Jun 11
   The following lists selected items from the Syrian press on 23 June. To
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
   53) Ecuador Press 22 Jun 11
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   54) Polish Expert Examines Shale Gas Projects, Warns Against Political
   Risk
   Commentary by Pawel Poprawa from the Polish Geological Institute (PIG):
   "Between National Interests and High Treason"
   55) Slovak PM Radicova Explains Position on Greece, EU Bail out Facilities
   "ESM and Greece Are Two Different Issues, Says Prime Minister Radicova" --
   SITA headline
   56) US charges French, UAE firms over Iran exports
   "US Charges French, Uae Firms Over Iran Exports" -- NOW Lebanon Headline
   57) NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO 163 -- CHRONOLOGICAL REVIEW (5 of 5)
   Yonhap headline: "NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 163 (June 23, 2011)"
   58) Activists' Intent to Sail to Gaza From Greece Endangers Greek-Israeli
   Relations
   Report by Aristotelia Peloni: "Sudden Storm in Relations With Israel"
   59) Bulgarian Defense Chief Denies WikiLeaks Reports on Problems With US
   Partners
   Inetrview with Bulgarian Chief of Defense General Simeon Simeonov by
   Lyubomir Denov; place and date not given: "Cooperative Bulgarians With US
   Diplomats Provide Distorted Information for WikiLeaks"
   60) Ivanhoe's Sale of Monywa Mine To PRC Firm Said To Violate Sanctions
   Laws
   Report by Francis Wade: "Canadian assets 'sold to China weapons firm'";
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at (800) 205-8615 or
   OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   61) Baghdad market bomb blitz kills 21
   "Baghdad Market Bomb Blitz Kills 21" -- NOW Lebanon Headline
   62) OSC/BBCM Provincial Friday Prayers Roundup on 17 Jun 11
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov
   63) Iraqi Politicians Divided Over US Presence, Worried by Iranian Envoy's
   Threat
   Report by Hamzah Mustafa in Baghdad: "Iraqi Blocs Are Divided Over US
   Presence and Iranian Ambassador's Statements Worry Everyone. 'Al-Iraqiyah'
   Spokeswoman to 'Al-Sharq al-Awsat': National Consensus Is Needed"
   64) Highlights of Khabat, Kurdistani Nuwe 19-21 Jun 11
   The following lists selec ted items from the two leading Iraqi Kurdish
   newspapers, Khabat and Kurdistani Nuwe, on 19-21 June. To request
   additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735,
   or fax (703) 613-5735.
   65) Kan's Aide on Emergency Operations Says Japan Cleaning Radioactive
   Water
   66) Moscow Calling on Washington Not to Question S. Kurils' Sovereignty
   (Part 2)
   67) Russia warns USA not to question its sovereignty over islands disputed
   by Japan
   68) Japan-U.S.alliance Should Not Go Beyond Bilateral Scope: Chinese
   Foreign Ministry
   Xinhua: "Japan-U.S.alliance Should Not Go Beyond Bilateral Scope: Chinese
   Foreign Ministry"
   69) Xinhua Insight: the Dalai Lama Myth Discovery
   Xinhua: "Xinhua Insight: the Dalai Lama Myth Discovery"
   70) Chinglish Finds Funny Side of Language, Cultural Challenges Between
   U.S. And China
   Xinhua: "Chinglish Finds Funny Side of Language, Cultural Challenges
   Between U.S. And China"
   71) Chinese Consulate General in Montreal Inaugurated
   Xinhua: "Chinese Consulate General in Montreal Inaugurated"
   72) Many Dragged into Muddy Waters
   Editorial by Mary Ma: Many Dragged into Muddy Waters; headline as provided
   by source
   73) US Supports India's 'Full Membership' to Nuclear Suppliers Group
   Report by Dr Jassim Taqui: "US to support Indias NSG membership"
   74) Pakistan, India Must Resolve Issues Without Looking At Western
   Countries
   Article by Afshain Afzal: "Pak-India Foreign Secretaries Talks"
   75) India Criticizes US Over Treatment of Diplomats
   AFP Report: "India Blasts US Over Treatment of its Diplomats"
   76) India, US to fast-track bilateral investment treaty dialogue
   77) India Concerned Over US Probing on Baseless Allegations Against
   Consul-General
   Unattributed report: Ministry Backs Diplomat, Upset at U.S. Probe
   78) Official Sources Say India 'Averse' To Signing 3 Military Pacts With
   US
   Report by Sandeep Dikshit: India Averse To Inking 3 Military Pacts With
   U.S.
   79) New Delhi To Appoint Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao as Indian Envoy to
   US
   Unattributed report: US Envoy Hat for Nirupama
   80) Unfriendly Atmosphere Prevails During Peace-Keeping Drills
   Report by Wassana Nanuam: "Unease at peace-keeping drills"
   81) Legitimacy vs. criminality
   "Legitimacy Vs. Criminality" -- Jordan Times Headline
   82) Lebanese President Comments on New Government, Syria Developments
   Report by Rosanna Bu-Munsif: "Sulayman Tells Al-Nahar: The Government Is a
   New Experience That Could Succeed Through Pe rformance; No Quarrel With 14
   March and I Will Call For Dialogue After Confidence and the Program
   Depends on the Participants"
   83) Turkish Columnist Interviews Syrian Muslim Brotherhood Leader
   Al-Shaqfa
   Column by Asli Aytintasbas: "The Regime Will Capitulate in the Coming
   Year"
   84) French Policy on Syria Obstructed by Russia
   Commentary by Natalie Nougayrede: "Syria: French Diplomacy Obstructed by
   Russia'"
   85) Lebanese Press 22 Jun 11
   The following lists selected items from the Lebanese press on 22 June. To
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
   86) Israeli Official Quoted on Talks With Turkey, Turkey To Gain From
   Restored Ties
   Report by Tolga Tanis in Washington: "The Washington Code in
   Turkish-Israeli Negotiations"
   87) FYI -- Al-Qadhafi Vows To Remain Ste adfast With Libyans' 'Backs
   Against the Wall'
   88) Egyptian Press 23 Jun 11
   The following lists selected items from the Egyptian press on 23 June. To
   request additional processing, contact the OSC Customer Center at (800)
   205-8615 or OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   89) Central America Political and Economic Issues 23 June 11
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   90) Mexico Political Issues 23 Jun 11
   91) Colombia Political-Economic Issues 22-23 Jun 11
   92) Iran Economic Sanctions, Government Corruption, 15-21 June 2011
   Correction: Deleted "[Beijing and Tehran]" in third paragraph; Changed "20
   May" to "20 June" in ninth paragraph
   93) US sanctions Iran's national airline
   "US Sanctions Iran's National Airline" -- NOW Lebanon Headline
   94) FYI -- Iranian Press TV Reports on 'Dismantling Spy Operation'
   95) Glencore CEO Could Replace Morgan Stanley's Simonyan on Zarubezhneft
   Board - Paper
   96) Israel's Oren Says Gaza Blockade 'Matter of Life And Death,' Notes
   Iranian Threat
   Report by Hilary Leila Krieger and Jordana Horn in Washington/New York:
   "Israel's Envoys to US, UN Justify Gaza Blockade"
   97) Iraqi Kurdish Arabic Press 22 Jun 11
   The following lists selected items from two Baghdad-based Kurdish
   newspapers on 22 June. To request additional processing, please call OSC
   at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735, or fax (703) 613-5735.
   98) UK Analyst Says 'Fresh Approach' Needed To Combat Terrorism
   99) Iran's Judiciary Chief Rejects UN Human Rights Claims
   100) Ukraine's security service, FBI bust cybercrime ring
   101) US Company To Start Drillin g in Cyprus' Exclusive Economic Zone by
   End of 2011
   "Noble's Top Official Says Drilling To Start by the End of 2011"-Cyprus
   News Agency headline
   102) Birri Demands Swift Action on Offshore Oil, Gas
   "Berri Demands Swift Action on Offshore Oil, Gas" -- The Daily Star
   Headline
   103) NATO chief confident about US Congress' Libyan stance
   "NATO Chief Confident About US Congress' Libyan Stance" -- NOW Lebanon
   Headline
   104) Lebaneseness of Cabinet Formation Confirmed
   Lebaneseness of Cabinet Formation Confirmed -- The Daily Star Headline
   105) Russian Support, PRC 'Presence' in South China Sea Help Safeguard
   Rights
   To request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735; or email: oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   106) South China Sea Issue Challenges Sino-US Strategic, Economic Dialogue
   To re quest additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735; or email: oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   107) Southeast Asia Chinese-Language Media Reporting on PRC 23 Jun 11
   The following lists selected reports on China from Southeast Asian
   Chinese-language media on 23 June. To request additional processing,
   please contact OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735; or fax (703)
   613-5735.
   108) 1st LD: G20 Agricultural Meeting Adopts Action Plan on Food Security,
   Price Volatility
   Xinhua: "1st LD: G20 Agricultural Meeting Adopts Action Plan on Food
   Security, Price Volatility"
   109) Reported Retired General's Remark Betrays Taiwanese People: Ma
   Corrected version: Replacing Subject
   110) Vietnam, US To Hold Joint Naval Exercises Amid SCS Tensions
   AFP Report: "Vietnam Says To Hold Joint Naval Drill With US"
   111) Taiwa n Political Issues 22 June 2011
   112) Taiwan Opinion 23 Jun 11
   113) NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO 163 -- Foreign Tips (4 of 5)
   Yonhap headline: "NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 163 (June 23, 2011)"
   114) Malaysia Chinese Press 23 Jun 11
   The following lists selected reports,editorial, and commntaries carried in
   Malaysia's Chinese press on 23 Jun. To request additional processing,
   contact the OSC Customer Center at (800) 205-8615 or
   OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   115) President Aquino Calls On China To Adhere to UN Convention on Laws of
   Sea
   Report by Norman Bordadora with a report from Reuters: "Aquino to China:
   Adhere to UN Pact"
   116) Czech Commentary Criticizes 'Uncoordinated' Formation of Security
   Policy
   Commentary by Milos Balaban: "When Cart Is Put Before Horse"
   117) Czech Commentary Argues Special Relationship Wi th United States 'Not
   Good Idea'
   Commentary by Jan Jires, director of Center for Transatlantic Relations at
   CEVRO Institute: "Special Relationship With United States? Forget It"
   118) Slovak Economy Minister Plans To Terminate Provision of Investment
   Incentives
   "Economy Minister Plans To Scrap Investment Stimuli This Election Term" --
   SITA headline
   119) Mexico, Central America To Present Regional Plan vs. Organized Crime
   Report by Mayolo Lopez: "Regional Plan Against Crime in Central America
   Prepared"
   120) Article Calls for 'Determined Realignment' of Pakistan's External
   Relations
   Article by Zafar Hilaly: "An alliance gone sour"
   121) Experts Hail Arrest of Pro-Hizb-ut-Tahrir Army Officer
   News 5: Brig Ali Khans Arrest a Great Achievement of Pakistani Army;
   Talat Masood: Unity Must For Revival of Democracy, Sohail Warriach:
   Nawazs Criticism of Army is Regrettable; Wasim Akhtar: Countrys Security
   is Important and Not Politics; Jhagra: It is Time to Save the Country.
   122) US, Netanyahu Said Pressured Abbas To Delay Meeting with Mish'al
   123) Tehreeke-e-Insaf Announces to Stage Next 'Sit-in' at Port Qasim
   Report by Shamim Bano: "PTI to stage next sit-in at Port Qasim"
   124) US Importers Reluctant to Buy Pakistan Mangoes Due to High Costs,
   Technicalities
   Report by Shahid Shah: "Procedural hurdles impede mango exports to US"
   125) Daily Calls For Cleaning Army From Elements Linked With Radical
   Groups
   Editorial: "House-cleaning"
   126) Lahore High Court to Hear JuD Chief's Plea Against Drone Attacks
   Today
   Report by staff correspondent: "LHC to hear Hafiz Saeeds plea against
   drones today"
   127) Editorial Criticizes Western Po wers for Terming Pakistan 'Failed
   State'
   Editorial: "Pak a failed State  ridiculous"
   128) High Alert in Islamabad, 3 Security Cordons Set Up
   Report by Ayub Nasir: Security High Alert in Islamabad, Barricades Again
   Set Up
   129) Russian-ukrainian Antonov An-70 Not Inferior to European Analog -
   Pogosyan
   130) US Increases Funding for Security, Clean Energy, Business
   Partnerships
   CMC Unattributed Report: "US Increases Funding for Security, Clean Energy,
   Business Partnerships"
   131) DPRK Party Organ Urges Abolition of ROK's 'Anti-Republic
   Confrontational Policy'
   Commentary by Cho'n Chong-ho: "Why Do North-South Relations Fail To Escape
   From Catastrophe"; The author's title in the byline provided by KPM may be
   different from that which appears in hard copy.
   132) Top ROK, US Diplomats To Sign Development Cooperation Deal
   Rep ort by Lee Chi-dong: "Top S. Korean, U.S. Diplomats to Sign
   Development Cooperation Deal"
   133) : ROK Editorial: Pro-North Korea Sympathizers, Disappear!
   134) Hyundai Equus Ranks 2nd in U.S. Quality Test
   135) Pro-North Korea Sympathizers, Disappear!
   Corrected version: removing typo in headline
   136) S. Korea's National Pension Fund Opens New York Office
   137) ROK's Yonhap: Obama Extends 'National Emergency' for Sanctions
   Against DPRK
   Report by Lee Chi-dong: "Obama Extends National Emergency Against N.
   Korea"
   138) Unnamed Source Says ROK Presidential Aide in US For Talks on DPRK,
   FTA
   Updated version: updating metadata; Yonhap headline: "Presidential Aide in
   U.S. For Possible Talks on N. Korea, FTA: Source"
   139) Results of 2004 Study Finds Traces of Dioxin in USFK Base
   The followi ng is a source-supplied update to the referent item; Yonhap
   headline: "(LEAD) 2004 Study Finds Traces of Dioxin Inside U.S. Military
   Base"
   140) Released Results Confirm Chemical Burial at USFK Base in Late 1970s
   Report By Lee Tae-hoon: "Chemical Burial Confirmed in Camp Carroll"
   141) DPRK Sends Delegation of State News Agency to US
   Yonhap headline: "(LEAD) N. Korea Sends Delegation of State News Agency to
   U.S."
   142) Newly Released Results of 2004 Study Finds Traces of Dioxin in USFK
   Base
   Yonhap headline: "2004 Study Finds Traces of Dioxin Inside U.S. Military
   Base"
   143) Spokesman for ROK Party Calls on USFK To Apologize for Violence
   Against Citizens
   KCNA headline: "U.S. Forces Urged to Apologize For Violence Against
   Civilians"
   144) (LEAD) S. Korean Businesses Urge Quick Ratification of Korea-U.S.
   FTA&lt; /a&gt;
   145) ROK Official's Remarks 'Seen as a Sign' of Softer Stance on DPRK
   Yonhap headline: "S. Korea Seen Softening Demand For N.K. Apology Before
   Resumption of Talks"
   146) Soil, Groundwater Near Old US Bases Contaminated
   147) DPRK Sends Delegation of State News Agency to US
   Yonhap headline: "N. Korea Sends Delegation of State News Agency to U.S."
   148) International Flotilla, Again
   "International Flotilla, Again" -- Jordan Times Headline
   149) Mexico Economic Issues 23 Jun 11
   150) Mexico's Northern Border Crime/Narcotics/Security Issues 23 Jun 11
   151) Lithuanian Analyst Censures President's Statements on Defense
   Spending
   "NATO Partners Won't Like Lithuanian President's Remarks on Defense
   Funding - Political Expert" -- BNS headline
   152) Lithuania Te sts Remote Troop Health Monitoring Technology During
   Exercise
   "Lithuanian Troops Test Technological Novelties During International
   Exercise" -- BNS headline
   153) Unions To Push for Rejection of FTA with US
   Unattributed Article: "Unions To Push for Rejection of FTA with US"
   154) Report on US Official Feltmans Visit to Yemen, Talks With Yemeni
   Officials
   Report from Sanaa by Ghamdan al-Yusufi: The Aim of Feltmans Visit Is to
   Assert His Countrys Stand on the Need to Enforce the Gulf States
   Initiative. A High-Ranking Source in the Yemeni Opposition Told Ilaf that
   US Assistant Secretary of State Jeffrey Feltman Held an Approximately
   70-Minute-Long Meeting With Leaders of the Joint Meeting [group of
   opposition parties] on Wednesday Evening Following a Similar Meeting With
   Vice President Abd Rabbuh Mansur and President Salihs Son
   155) Senior Russian MP rejects US criticism of ban on liberal party
   156) Putin Talks About Seeking 'Pretext' To Ban More Food Imports
   157) Putin Criticizes European Attitudes To Russian Food Market
   158) Lukashenko Doubts U.S.-russian AMD Deal Possible
   159) Russia Seeks Coordinated Dialog on Missile Defense With U.S., NATO -
   Moscow
   160) Russian Strategic Bombers Complete 15 Hour Flight Off Aleutian
   Islands
   161) Russian 'bears' Fly Patrol Mission Over Aleutians Shadowed By U.S.
   Jets
   162) Russian Commentator Ponders President Obama's Reelection Chances
   Article by Nikolay Pakhomov: "Obama Will Try Not to Lose"
   163) On Threats of a New Biological Weapon and the Biosecurity of Russia
   Refiled removing issue no. and date from source name, adding source
   descriptor and city; On Threats of a New Biological Weapon and the
   Biosecurity of Rus sia by Yu. A. Bobylov, Kachestvennaya Klinicheskaya
   Praktika No 3, 2008 pp 94-99. http://www.clinvest.ru/part.php?pid=154 .
   164) Palestinian Leadership Will Decide Whether to Apply to UN For
   Recognition By Fall - Diplomat
   165) Palestinian Leadership Will Decide Whether to Apply to UN For
   Recognition By Fall - Diplomat (Part 2)
   166) Vote Monitors Await Russia's Nod
   167) U.S. ATTEMPTS TO QUESTION RUSSIA'S SOVEREIGNTY OVER KURIL ISLANDS ARE
   INAPPROPRIATE; U.S. SHOULD NOT INTERFERE IN DIALOGUE BETWEEN MOSCOW, TOKYO
   - RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY
   168) Trading on MICEX Opens With Quotation Losses, Down 0.6% in First
   Minute

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   1) Back to Top
   Terrorist Threat Remains After US Withdrawal From Afghanistan
   To request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6
   735; or fax (703) 613-5735; or email: oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Ta Kung Pao
   Online
   Friday June 24, 2011 02:36:09 GMT
   (Description of Source: Hong Kong Ta Kung Pao Online in Chinese -- Website
   of PRC-owned daily newspaper with a very small circulation; ranked low in
   "credibility" in Hong Kong opinion surveys due to strong pro-Beijing bias;
   has good access to PRC sources; URL:
   http://www.takungpao.com)Attachments:tkp0622d.pdf

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   2) Back to Top
   US Secretary of State Presents ROK as Lesson for Afghan Policy
   The following is a lead item, which "UPDATES with senator's comments in
   last two paras" per source update; Report by Lee Chi-dong: "(LEAD) Clinton
   Presents S. Korea as Lesson For Afghan Policy" - Yonhap
   Thursday June 23, 2011 23:32:54 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   3) Back to Top
   Iranian Military Developments, 13-22 June 2011 - Iran -- OSC Summary
   Thursday June 23, 2011 22:55:11 GMT
   The following are highl ights of Iranian military developments as reported
   in various Iranian domestic websites monitored by OSC. Technological
   Advancements Imaging Micro-Satellite System Developed

   - On 20 June, the Mehr News Agency announced the successful production of
   a linear imaging prototype that sends photographic frames of satellite
   images to earth based on the satellite's movement relative to the earth.
   According to the head of the Esfahan Science and Research Company, Qassem
   Moslehi, linear imaging systems are used for weather forecasting, remote
   measurement studies, and security applications (Mehr News Agency -
   conservative news agency; run by the Islamic Propagation Office, which is
   affiliated with the conservative Qom seminary; www.mehrnews.com).
   Micro-satellite image Online Technology Databank To Promote Advancements

   - On 20 June, the Fars News Agency reported on the "Iranian National
   Technology Bazaar" portal www.techmart.ir, which lists 3,400 data points
   and 6,000 registered experts and researchers. Seyyed Ahmad Reza Ala'ei
   Tabataba'ei, the project's director, described the main areas of activity
   as research proposals, requests, and services and information on
   investment opportunities, industrial products, and equipment. The database
   is administered at the Pardis research park, the report said (Fars News
   Agency - hardline pro-Ahmadinezhad news agency; headed as of December 2007
   by Hamid Reza Moqaddamfar, who was formerly an IRGC cultural officer;
   www.fars.ir). Site image Army Information, Communications Systems Secure

   - On 15 June, Mashregh News quoted Yadollah Asgari, Army deputy in charge
   of Army Communications and Information Technology (FAVA), as saying that
   "the systems used for communications among the military forces are all
   domestically produced and therefore entirely secure." Reportedly, the
   systems are updated regularly and tested in military exercises (Mashregh
   News - pro-government conservative news website, self-described as a
   "stronghold against soft warfare"; www.mashreghnews.ir). Communications
   device Sepehr Satellite Data Receptor and Storage Base

   - On 20 June, Mashregh News reported on the history, scope, and role of
   the Sepehr satellite base in Iran, which has been receiving images from
   non-Iranian satellites since 2002. Currently, Sepehr is receiving data
   from the recently launched Resad 1 satellite. Sepehr operates under the
   auspices of the geography organization of the Iranian armed forces, based
   on the four principles of "minimum time, minimum expense, timeliness of
   information, and disguise of target." According to the report, Sepehr
   covers 40 countries in a 2,800-kilometer radius, makes its images and
   information available to universities and academic centers for free, and
   sells its services to neighboring countries. Information received by
   Sepehr allows Iran to monitor a variety of geographic information,
   including emerging pollu tion in the Persian Gulf, the report said. The
   article closes by stating that Iran is currently developing other
   satellite data receiving bases, including stationary and non-stationary
   ones.

   Sepehr base Area covered by Sepehr International Military-related Coverage
   Lebanon's Hezbollah Forces on Alert

   - On 21 June, IRNA reported that, "in response to extensive maneuvers by
   the Zionist regime's army on the northern borders of occupied Palestine
   with southern Lebanon, the Hezbollah put its own military forces on alert
   status." According to the report, for the first time the Israeli
   parliament building is being used as an imaginary target. In an interview,
   Mahmud Qamati, a member of the Hezbollah's political bureau, told IRNA
   that a war would not break out, "primarily due to the strength of the
   Hezbollah resistance forces--a source of fear for the Zionist regime."
   According to IRNA, Qamati elaborated that &amp;qu ot;Hezbollah forces can
   reach all of Palestine as well as the Zionist regime's navy warships." He
   added that "the 33-day war proved the veracity of statements by the
   Hezbollah" (Tehran IRNA in Persian and English - pro-Ahmadinezhad official
   news agency, controlled by the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance;
   www.irna.ir). Hezbollah forces Gaza Students in Hamas Educational Camp

   - On 20 June, Asr'e Iran carried the following picture with a caption
   indicating the two students are reciting the Koran, but with no additional
   text (Asr'e Iran - pro-reform website; www.asriran.com). Iran Offers,
   Afghanistan Welcomes Training of Afghan Police

   - On 21 June, IRNA reported on the minutes of a security task force
   meeting of Iranian and Afghan representatives in Tehran. According to Ali
   Abdollahi, police and security deputy of Iran's Interior Ministry, "the
   minutes reflect an agreement in principle that Iran's security forces will
   train the Afghan po lice, as we have done in the past." Other
   collaboration, including "training workshops," was also discussed, the
   report said.

   In a related report on 22 June, IRNA quoted General Mohammad Zahir Azimi,
   spokesman for the Afghan "Defense Ministry," as saying that the visit of
   Commander Ahmad Vahidi, Iran's Minister of Defense and Armed Forces
   Logistics, to Afghanistan earlier this week "will affect the strengthening
   and expansion of the relationship between the two countries in the area of
   security and defense." Vahidi and his Afghan counterpart "agreed to
   establish a joint security commission and to organize meetings of defense
   ministers in the region," the report said. Azimi stated that "Iran could
   assist in the growth and equipment of the Afghan army to ensure the
   security of Afghanistan after the transfer of security responsibilities to
   Afghan forces."

   Ali Abdollahi M ohammad Zahir Azimi How To Destroy Patriot Air Defense
   System

   - On 13 June, Mashregh News published a detailed description of the US
   Patriot air defense system, including its technical properties and modus
   operandi. It then listed Middle Eastern countries where the Patriot is
   currently available: Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia,
   Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, and Israel. The article then described two ways in
   which Iran can destroy the Patriot system should it become necessary:
   Since the Patriot system's focus is on its main radar, Iran's anti-radar
   rockets as well as its Qased 3 precision-guided smart bomb can
   "fire-and-forget," the article claimed and considered the "Qased's
   low-altitude flight an advantage since the Patriot is limited in that
   range." Iran's tactical ballistic missile Fateh-110 would have the same
   advantage, the analysis said and suggested that other less important
   rockets could be used first to "trick" the Patr iot. The article also
   stated that other systems that have not yet been made public could also be
   used, but that nothing could be said about them at this point. The
   analysis closed by emphasizing the importance of "identifying the changing
   location of the enemy defense systems through vigilant reconnaissance and
   with unmanned equipment, as is done regularly."

   Qased 3 Iranian Fighter Planes

   - On 16 June, TINN carried the following pictures, identifying the type
   and location in the captions, but with no other text or article (Iranian
   Transportation Industry News Network (TINN); URL:

   http://www.tinn.ir www.tinn.ir ). Sukhoi Su-24MK (Tehran-Mehrabad)
   Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-29A (Tehran-Mehrabad) Sukhoi Su-25UBK (Tehran -
   Mehrabad) Northrop F-5A Freedom Fighter (Dezful-Iran) Northrop F-5B
   Simorgh (Dezful - Iran) Grumman F-14A Tomcat (Tehran- Mehrabad) McDonnell
   Douglas F-4E Phantom II (Airport - Tehran) Northrop F-5E Tiger II (Tehran
   - Mehrabad)

   Northrop F-5E Saeghe (Airport - Tehran) Basij News Remembering Victims of
   Iran Air Flight 655

   - Hormozgan (Province) Sepah Deputy Colonel Mussa Moulaparast announced
   the designation of the annual anniversary of the 3 July 1988 Iranian
   Airbus tragedy over the Persian Gulf as the Day of Resistance of the
   People of Hormozgan, Basij News reported on 20 June. This is done in the
   context of each province having to designate one day a year as its Day of
   Resistance, Moulaparast explained. The report detailed the shooting down
   of the passenger airplane by the US Navy guided missile cruiser USS
   Vincennes stationed in the Persian Gulf at the time, emphasizing that "the
   tragedy could not have been an accident" (Basij News Agency - website of
   the Basij, or paramilitary forces; as of June 2008, Basij forces merged
   with those of Pasdaran or the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) and
   came under the latter's control; http://www.basijnews.ir). Map depicting
   site of 3 Ju ly 1988 Iranian Airbus tragedy Bolstering Universities'
   Knowledge of Jihad a Priority

   - The head of the University Professors' Basij Organization, Sohrab
   Salahi, held a news conference on the importance of fighting the soft war
   through knowledge generation. "The University Professors' Basij
   Organization now counts 20,000 university academics," Basij News reported
   on 20 June, citing the Basij reporters' club. Salahi noted the
   "development of an administrative cadre, revolutionary forces, and the
   representation of Islam in the human sciences among the most important
   goals" of his organization. He added that "Islamic Iran now finds itself
   in a position of scientific strength and must strive to be recognized in
   the world as a source of knowledge so that scientists the world over are
   forced to learn Farsi to access knowledge." He laid out a national plan to
   develop (1.) 500 discipline-based academic "circles" consisting of a
   professo r and 20 to 30 students each; (2.) 200 academic "clubs" to deal
   with the country's internal needs; (3.) provincial "working groups" with a
   local focus; and (4.) a national Basij research center with provincial
   representation. Salahi emphasized that the Professors' Basij will work
   with the universities and the Ministry of Science, Research, and
   Technology to complement each other's efforts. Soft War-related News
   'Israel Uses Farsi Singer for Public Diplomacy'

   - Citing the Fars News Agency, on 20 June the website of the Center for
   Information Dominance and Strategic Insight reported on the worldwide
   distribution of an album of Farsi songs, sung by Iranian-born Israeli
   singer Rita. The report alleged that the album may have been financed by
   Israel as a "public diplomacy tool to establish a direct connection with
   the people of Iran" (Eshraf.ir - website of the Center for Information
   Dominance and Strategic Insight with the stated goal to moni tor and
   publicize news pertaining to Iran generated by British, US, and Israeli
   think tanks and strategic studies centers; URL: http://eshraf.ir).
   Farsi-language Israeli singer Rita Video Game Designed To Counter Islamism
   in Tajikistan

   - Citing the Australian Herald and Weekly Times, the Fars News Agency on
   20 June reported on "Operation Flashpoint: Red River," a video game
   "produced in Europe," featuring "an attack on Tajikistan by Americans to
   prevent paramilitary Islamists from coming into power in Tajikistan's 2013
   elections." In the video, the Chinese then attack the Americans to prevent
   them from dominating Tajikistan, the report said and added that the game
   has angered the parliament and the government of Tajikistan.

   Scenes from the video game Policing Information Production and Exchange

   - On 19 June, the website of the Specialist Center for Soft War published
   an extensive interview by the Fars News Agency with Comma nder Esma'il
   Ahmadi Moghaddam, chief of Iran's security forces. The interview focused
   on the role of a new police force dedicated to "safeguarding the
   information production and exchange environment" and announced the
   "approval of a comprehensive document to regulate the country's virtual
   space." Moghaddam told Fars News that the new police force is quite new
   and is still undergoing training to develop the required expertise for
   establishing cyber safety and security. He said allegations about his own
   and the security forces' Facebook pages were lies and attempts at
   spreading disinformation. The commander also spoke extensively about the
   role of the police force in controlling drug trafficking and enforcing
   Islamic attire in public spaces (Paygah-e Jame' va Takhasosi-e Jang-e Narm
   (Specialist Center for Soft War) - stated goal is to collect and to
   disseminate all available information on the subject of soft war in order
   to increase capacity to fight it; U RL: http://www.jang-narm.com/).

   Esma'il Ahmadi Moghaddam

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   4) Back to Top
   FYI -- Iran's Al-Alam TV Discusses Withdrawal of US Forces From
   Afghanistan - Al-Alam Television
   Thursday June 23, 2011 19:59:31 GMT
   The program interviewed live Ali Yunis, an analyst in Washington,
   Abd-al-Baqi Abd-al-Kabir, an analyst in Kabul, and Shafqat Shirazi, a
   Pakistani political researcher in Damascus.

   Yunis argued in favor of US troop withdrawal and said this was a promise
   made by US President Barak Obama during his election campaign. He said the
   war would now shift to intelligence war whereby unmanned aircraft, among
   other things, would be used. He also said that the US had achieved its
   goals in Afghanistan and that Al-Qa'ida was not so big there. He went on
   to say that withdrawing 30,000 out of 100,000 troops would not undermine
   the US' status in Afghanistan, especially with the presence of NATO forces
   and private security firms. He admitted that the withdrawal of troops
   could constitute a "symbolic triumph" for Taliban, but insisted that the
   US was not "naive" enough to hand Afghanistan over to the Taliban, adding
   that Washington would leave permanent military bases in there.

   Asked if the US would play a role in reconciliation between the Taliban
   and the Afghani government, Yunis said "why not?" The US had never branded
   the Taliban a terrorist organization and always recognized that the group
   had a presence in Afghani society. He agreed to a suggestion that it would
   be a "defeat" for the US to consider the Taliban as a partner in any
   future government in Afghanistan. He also downplayed the loss of US troops
   and said the number was small considering the length of the conflict.
   Concluding, Yunis said the US was not interested in "ultimate" victory.

   Abd-al-Kabir argued that the withdrawal of troops was a "defeat" and that
   reconciliation was the only way out of the crisis. He said the Afghani
   forces were not up for fighting the Taliban and that they were suffering
   from limited manpower. On the issue of US military bases, Abd-al-Kabir
   said it was a controversial issue. We need to be flexible over
   constitutional amendments if so wished by the Taliban and agreed by the
   people, he said, noting that the US could play a role in any
   reconciliation process.

   Shirazi spoke about the existence of an intelligence war between the US
   and Pakistan and said the US had a broad scheme in the region and that it
   was "exporting" terrorism .

   No further processing planned.

   (Description of Source: Tehran Al-Alam Television in Arabic -- 24-hour
   Arabic news channel, targetting a pan-Arab audience, of Iranian state-run
   television, officially controlled by the office of the supreme leader)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   5) Back to Top
   Urdu Press Roundup Views Shahzad Murder, Criticism Over Army's Role
   The following is a roundup of excerpts from 14 articles published in the
   19 June editions of 10 Urdu-language dailies on Salim Shahzad's murder,
   the Abbottabad and Kharotabad incidents, and criticism over the Army's
   role - Pakistan -- OSC Summary
   Thursday June 23, 201 1 19:37:19 GMT
   Irfan Ahmed Siddiqi writes in his article entitled "Will Some Window Open
   From His Grave?" that: "the Armed Forces also did well by fully supporting
   the establishment of a commission for investigating the murder of Shahzad.
   A press release, formally issued from the ISPR (Inter-Services Public
   Relations), states the Army desires a fully fledged investigation into the
   issue so that all the facts can become clear in front of the people.
   However, the ISPR has regretted the fact that "Baseless allegations are
   being leveled against the ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence). Such
   allegations have been leveled in the past as well. However, these were
   proved wrong after investigations." The journalist continues: "Honorable
   Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry knows that we, the journalists,
   are "weak" people in known terms. We have neither guns nor swords in our
   hands. We ca n only handle the pen. The pen might be mightier than the
   sword. However, our pens cannot save us when the swords approach our
   throats. Our pens cannot shield our chests when the guns target us. Our
   pens also fail in saving us from the kicks, the punches, and the blows
   from the iron rods. Therefore, we are weak, and they, whosoever they are,
   are quite powerful. They are roaming around freely after killing nearly 70
   journalists. We do not call anyone a murderer. No one should call anyone
   innocent. Let us leave everything to the court. Let us repose complete
   trust in it." The article continues: "And just look at the attitude of the
   helpless government in this fiery atmosphere. It first staged a cheap
   circus in the city while constituting a commission on the Abbottabad
   tragedy, and then tried to stage a drama in the name of an investigation
   commission into the murder of Salim Shahzad." N awa-e-Waqt Article Urges
   Punishing Rangers

   Farhan Qureshi writes in his article entitled "Mourning the Unjust Murder"
   that: "during the time since 2009, this country and its inhabitants
   witnessed such scenes of unjust murders through the eyes of the camera,
   including the scattered human limbs following the activities of suicide
   bombers, the hunting by Raymond Davis, action by the FC (Frontier Corps)
   soldiers in Quetta, and a rain of explosives on the Hafsa Seminary, which
   was abode of orphans and poor girls. From the drone strikes to the
   Abbottabad operation people saw such scenes that only God can grant refuge
   from these. However, the terrorist activity that the people witnessed on
   their TV sets a few days ago shook the entire Pakistani nation. Sarfraz
   Shah, surrounded by rangers in Karachi, has no weapon or suicide jacket on
   his body. He wants to take refuge in the nearby rangers' vehicle. Shah
   beseeches and begs for his life. Millions of people saw this on
   television. The rangers of his own country were st anding in front of the
   youth who wanted to keep his life. These weapons have been given to them
   to wipe out the enemies of the country." The article continues: "People's
   tears and cries will be satisfied only when the officials who committed
   this crime are made an example of at the same place. God may protect my
   country and its people (Amen)." (Rawalpindi Nawa-e Waqt in Urdu --
   Privately owned, widely read, conservative Islamic daily, with circulation
   around 125,000. Harshly critical of the US and India) Jasarat Article
   Argues Useless To Form Commission

   Afshan Naveed writes in her article entitled "Power Intoxication Is
   Dangerous" that: "oppression is rampant in society, and the powerful
   people consider not only the lives but also the property of the powerless
   as a thing with which to play. It is a place where kidnap-for-ransom
   activities are taking place on daily basis and the list of the missing
   persons is growing day by day; howeve r, the "defenders" who are quite an
   expert in apprehending the innocent people cannot get their hands at the
   criminals." The article continues: "Whether it is the Abbottabad tragedy,
   the Kharoatabad tragedy, or the issues of Salim Shahzad or Sarfraz Shah
   who have been recently killed, commissions will be formed and analyses
   will be written. However, the thing to reflect on is whether or not the
   societies actively play their role in the issues of this nature." (Karachi
   Jasarat in Urdu -- Urdu daily owned by Islamic party Jamaat-e Islami;
   strongly critical of the United States; circulation 50,000) Jasarat
   Article Argues Government Opposed to Free Media

   Zahida Hina writes in her article entitled "You Never Read the Writing on
   the Wall" that: "in most of the countries of the third world, the other
   pillars of the state do not like the pillar of the state named the "media"
   and they keep on trying to create fissures in it. Military governments, in
   particular, and non-military governments in general, have made every
   attempt they can to demolish this pillar in Pakistan. On the one hand are
   the attempts of the administration, while on the other hand is the group
   that is associated with various wings of the newspapers and electronic
   media. The members of this group are carrying the entire burden of this
   pillar on their weak shoulders, and some members of this group have
   adopted the role of its defenders." Ausaf Article Argues Media
   Scandalizing Army

   Naghma Habib writes in her article entitled "Beware! Thou Art Living in a
   Period of Judgment" that: "the same Army has been continuously fighting
   against terror. It buries several of its martyrs every day. Has any
   attempt been made to estimate the psychological pressure it is under? The
   Army is composed of the same soldiers." The article continues: "I do not
   mean to state that mi stakes and deficiencies shoul d not be pointed out.
   These should be pointed out. However, there is a need to differentiate
   between criticism for the sake of criticism, and criticism to reform. This
   time, we are really passing through a critical phase of history. Instead
   of targeting the institutions, there is a need to increase pressure on the
   government and the politicians that they should develop the decisionmaking
   power. The decisionmaking power is developed only when there is sincerity
   and good intentions, and the national interest is placed above the
   personal interest." The article continues: "It is certainly a hideous
   crime that has occurred. However, what is the purpose behind showing this
   at least 50 times on every channel every day? Is it being done so that it
   results in further humiliation?" (Islamabad Ausaf in Urdu - Daily
   supportive of jihadi groups and a hard-line Pakistan policy on Kashmir.
   Extensively covers extremist groups, catering to religious and anti-US
   groups, with a circulation of 40,000. Provides good coverage of activities
   of militants in Waziristan and other tribal areas. Ausaf is also published
   from Frankfurt and London besides Pakistani cities of Lahore, Multan, and
   Muzaffarabad) Khabrain Article Argues Media's Attitude Suddenly Changed

   Khizar Klasra writes in his article "Waiting for Murder of Another
   Journalist" that: "now, I was aggrieved when I heard the news of the
   murder of Shahzad at the hands of some unknown men because I felt that it
   should not have happened to him. His assassins should be apprehended.
   Besides that, I was surprised that even those channels and announcers
   started presenting Shahzad's news as breaking news were not ready to show
   his news a year ago. No one came to inquire about the health of Shahzad,
   who was fighting for his life in the intensive care unit of the Poly
   Clinic in Islamabad. No one had the courage to speak in their program
   about the accident that occurred to S hahzad. Why is everyone so worried
   about the freedom of the media now? I am trying to find out the answer to
   the question of what are the reasons, which never existed before his
   murder, that are now causing sympathy for Shahzad. Moreover, journalists
   like me expect that the media leaders will play a positive role for the
   security of the cameraman who shot video of Sarfraz Shah's killing at the
   hands of the rangers' officers in Karachi, and they will not wait for the
   day when his dead body is found by the roadside." (Islamabad Khabrain in
   Urdu -- "News," a sensationalist daily, published by Liberty Papers Ltd.,
   generally critical of Pakistan People's Party; known for its access to
   government and military sources of information. The same group owns The
   Post in English, Naya Akhbar in Urdu and Channel 5 TV. Circulation of
   30,000) Jinnah Article Urges Also Questioning Journalists for Defaming
   Army

   Hafiz Tahir Mehmud Ashrafi writes in his article entitled "ISI and Army
   Proved Not Guilty" that: "if the attitudes of those who call the Army and
   the ISI names are not right, no positive change is taking place in the
   attitude of the media wing of the ISI and the ISPR. It is the
   responsibility of both these wings to remove misgivings that are being
   created, and not put to the test the ISI, which is a respected
   organization for the nation. If they cannot fulfill this responsibility,
   the Army chief and the ISI chief will themselves have to think how long
   this will continue. The ISI officials should appear before the court of
   the honorable chief justice, and should humbly submit to it. If the ISI is
   proved not guilty, those who consider it their duty to call it names
   should also be held accountable or will it be a threat to freedom of media
   if they are questioned? Facts should be brought out in the Shahzad case,
   and the culprits should also be brought to book. Moreover, there should be
   some rules and regulations f or those people who are targeting the
   Pakistan Army and the national security agencies." (Islamabad Jinnah in
   Urdu -- Daily owned by a prominent businessman who is mainly involved in
   real estate business and said to be close to military high-ups. Carries
   good investigative reports and conducts surveys on relevant issues.
   Editorials are harshly critical of US policies. Recently Jinnah has
   adopted sensationalist reporting and tends to splash corruption stories
   out of proportion. Editor Khushnood Ali Khan strongly criticizes Musharraf
   in his daily columns) Khabrain Article Urges Transparent Commission To
   Investigate Journalist's Murder

   Rehmat Ali Razi writes in his article entitled "What Will Rulers Get by
   Creating Mistrust Between Judiciary and Media on Salim Shahzad Issue?"
   that: "it is regrettable that the government does not abstain from making
   any compromise on the domestic as well as external front in order to
   ensure its survival. The governmen t knows that the constitution of a
   transparent commission on these issues will expose it. Therefore, it is
   abstaining from taking the steps in the national interest. In such a
   situation, not only is an attempt being made to malign the role of the
   media and judiciary, but a forceful attempt is being made to foment
   misgivings between the media and judiciary on the issue of journalist
   Shahzad."

   The article continues: "I feel that, if the government and the court did
   not pay attention to it, there is an apprehension that freedom of media
   will be affected. It is a fact that the journalists cannot perform their
   duties in a state of fear. Kidnapping, torture, and murder of journalists
   in broad daylight are in fact steps to keep the people in the dark. It is
   an attempt to push the nation into the stone age. Those who question the
   role of the independent media should first reflect on their own attitude,
   and review their own character and action. The government should
   constitute such a commission to hold transparent inquiry into the murder
   of Salim Shahzad that formulates its report without any pressure or
   partiality. The second task for the government will be to implement the
   recommendations of the commission, and punish the culprits. It will also
   have to take concrete steps to prevent such incidents in future. If the
   government does not take this step, it will be enmity to the people and
   media." Mashriq Article Argues Agencies Tried To Hide Truth in Incident
   Involving Killings

   Iqbal Riaz writes in his article entitled "Speaking the Truth is Jihad"
   that: "freedom of the media is the spirit of democracy, while fundamental
   rights and democracy are indispensable for each other. According Justice
   M.R. Kayani, a renowned figure in the judiciary, no society can be term as
   democratic with the freedom of media. Journalists face tough situations on
   various occasions. In fact, some of them have to face the consequences of
   writing the truth and not covering up the facts. How regrettable is it
   that, besides the murder of Salim Shahzad, certain incidents took place in
   the country, including the one in Kharotabad where five people, including
   three men and two women, were shot to death, and Sarfraz Shah, brother of
   a journalist, was mercilessly killed in Karachi. However, rangers and
   other security agencies tried to completely hide the truth by declaring
   them as terrorists and dacoits. Had the media not been independent on this
   occasion, and the journalist could not undertake his duties courageously,
   the facts would have remained hidden, and the Supreme Court would not have
   to take own account notice of this tragic issue after watching the videos
   of these incidents." (Peshawar Mashriq in Urdu -- "The East," a prominent
   daily newspaper published by Mashriq Group of Newspapers. Provides good
   coverage of events in Peshawar as well as tribal areas along the Afghan
   bor der. The Statesman in English is a sister publication from the same
   group) Ausaf Article Argues Rangers C ommitted Barbarity With Officers'
   Backing

   Akhtar Mir writes in his article entitled "Extra-Judicial Killings
   Continue" that: "regardless of what the real incident was, the world saw
   through the camera that a plainclothes fellow caught the youth and handed
   him over to a team of rangers. The moment this youth was handed over to
   the rangers, the soldiers aimed at him with a M-III rifle. The youth
   joined his hands together and begged for forgiveness and his life.
   However, God knows from where, that rangers soldier, who himself seemed to
   be of the same stature and face as this youth, gained the ability and
   fired a shot at him without much thinking." The article continues: "The
   Supreme Court's own account notice at this step by the rangers is
   synonymous with healing wounds. The issue will not be resolved by
   dismissing the rangers. They mus t have backing of the officers. That is
   why this barbarity was demonstrated." Aaj Kal Article Argues Intelligence
   Agencies Based on Patriotism

   Dr Mujahid Mirza writes in his article entitled "Opposition to
   Intelligence Agency" that: "intelligence agencies are formed to keep the
   government stable so as to find out those segments whose secret activities
   threaten the country and society. These agencies are under an established
   department such as the Interior Ministry, Army, or border police. The very
   edifice of the intelligence agencies is formed with the pro-nation
   sentiments. Therefore, patriotism is their basis." (Islamabad Aaj Kal in
   Urdu -- Newspaper published by Media Times (Private) Ltd., which also
   publishes the independent moderate newspaper Daily Times in English. The
   paper provides exhaustive coverage of terrorism issues. Editorials
   strongly oppose religious extremism and Talibanization. In 2008 the paper
   received threats from the Red Mosque activists for its criticism of
   Islamic extremism and militancy. The Taliban in Khyber Agency had imposed
   a ban on sale of Aaj Kal for some time. Salman Taseer, the incumbent
   governor of Punjab province, is publisher/owner of Aaj Kal and Daily
   Times. Aaj Kal is published simultaneously from Karachi, Lahore, and
   Islamabad) Islam Article Argues Army Facing Criticism From Various
   Segments

   Professor Khubab Ahmed Khan writes in his article entitled "Criticism of
   Army by Particular Segments: Would That No One Understands Anything" that:
   "the process of criticizing the Armed Forces that started after the
   Abbottabad incident, PNS (Pakistan Naval Station) Mehran, Kharotabad,
   Salim Shahzad, and the brutal murder of Sarfraz Shah at the hands of the
   rangers, does not seem to be ending. Previously, the politicians of Sindh
   and Balochistan used to criticize the Army. It is the first time that the
   Army is also being criticized in the Punjab."

   T he article continues: "There are two types of segments that criticize
   the Army today. One of these is pro-India. The second segment is the one
   that was opposed to the Russian invasion of Afghanistan. They fully
   supported the Afghan jihad. This class is opposed to the increasing US
   intervention in Pakistan, and wants to limit its role. This class also
   wants to confine the Army to its constitutional role. Again, there are two
   schools of thought in this class. One of them is not ready to tolerate any
   type of intervention by the US empire. This opinion is represented by the
   Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F), and other
   religious parties, and to some extent the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).
   They also criticize the Army. However, the element of reform is quite
   prominent in their criticism. The other opinion is expressed by those who
   have incurred losses at the hands of the military leadership in the past."
   (Karachi Islam in Urdu -- Jihad ist daily associated with the Al-Rasheed
   Trust, estimated circulation around 20,000. A pro-Taliban paper which
   claims to have introduced a new trend in journalism based on Islamic
   values. Following orthodox Islamic principles, the paper never publishes
   pictures of living beings) Islam Article Argues Government Trying To
   Defame Army, Intelligence Agencies

   Muhammad Amjad Chaudhry writes in his article entitled "Resolve To
   Continue Struggle Until Getting Justice" that: "the entire media community
   is protest personified at the barbaric murder of journalist Salim Shahzad.
   By participating in the protest sit-in under the auspices of the Pakistan
   Federal Union of Journalists (PFUJ), the journalists from all over the
   country, besides the civil society and representatives of the political
   segments, have proved that oppression will not be accepted any longer.
   This unanimous voice for the defense of life and property of the citizens
   cannot move the rulers in the corridors of power even a bit."

   The article continues: "The Pakistan Army's support for the constitution
   of commission is a highly positive step. From this, at least it was
   learned that the Pakistan Army is also deeply looking into this issue, and
   is ready to face the allegations being leveled against it. In this
   perspective, if we look at the second side of the picture, it also becomes
   clear that the government does not want to feel satisfied merely with
   hitting two birds with one stone with regard to Salim Shahzad's case, but
   it is also dreaming to make the Pakistan Army and the intelligence
   agencies a subject of censure in order to make them obedient to it. It is
   true that the Army should function under the Parliament, and the ISI
   should also fulfill its national security responsibilities within its own
   defined parameters. However, the way the government desires to make the
   Army and intelligence agencies the personal property of someone is utterly
   un acceptable for any Pakistani."

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   6) Back to Top
   NATO Central Asia Policy Eyed, Expanded US Troop Deployment There Seen
   Report by Viktoriya Panfilova, under the rubric "Today: The CIS": "NATO Is
   Preparing an Intervention in Central Asia" - Nezavisimaya Gazeta Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 18:21:35 GMT
   This type of coincidence of talks and official visits under a military
   aegis is not observed infrequently, by the way. But at the Tajikistani MID
   (Ministry of Foreign Affairs), Nezavisimaya Gazeta was assured that James
   Appathurai's visit was planned and "just happened to coincide with the
   start of the third round of Russian-Tajikistani consultations on the
   border." According to the Nezavisimaya Gazeta source, "Moscow and Dushanbe
   have already prepared the agreement regulating the bilateral format of
   cooperation on border questions for signing, and it is not out of the
   question that the document will be signed in a few days." Russian advisors
   will provide, as they did before, aid in the consultations and the
   training of the non-commissioned officers contingent from Tajikistani
   servicemen. "The question of a full-fledged return of Russian border
   guards to the Tajikistani-Afghan border was not examined, since Tajikistan
   is still handling this task," the Nezavisimaya Gazeta source said. At the
   same time, the interlocutor did not rule out that "the border question
   will be discussed at the meeting between the NATO representative and the
   republic's leadership." That is r elated to the idea that the
   military-political situation in Afghanistan, including in the northern
   provinces bordering Tajikistan, remains tense.

   This is Appathurai's first visit to Tajikistan as the NATO general
   secretary's special representative for the South Caucasus and Central Asia
   since the moment he was appointed in December of last year (2010).
   Earlier, in May, he was already in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan and secured
   their support of the North Atlantic Alliance's forces in Afghanistan. In
   exchange the American official promised Astana assistance in conducting
   military reform, and Bishkek -- help in strengthening the borders and the
   potential of the republic's border troops, as well as assistance in
   conducting capital repair of the Kyrgyzstan Ministry of Defense missile
   and artillery weaponry storage facilities.

   Tajikistan is counting on no fewer dividends from NATO. Earlier the
   Alliance helped Tajikistan re-equip the Tajik-Afghan border, reinforce the
   border posts, and build a kilometer-long bridge across the Pyanduzh River,
   as well as teach local soldiers how to remove mines from territories and
   stop the illegal trafficking in narcotics. All this is not out of
   altruistic desires -- NATO transfers nonmilitary freight to Afghanistan
   across Tajikistan's territory, and the French Air Force has been deployed
   at the Dushanbe airport since 2001 (five Mirage fighters -- Nezavisimaya
   Gazeta).

   Experts believe that Tajikistan's expectations from cooperation with NATO
   have not been completely met as of today -- official Dushanbe was
   expecting more. Namely: the location of a North Atlantic Alliance military
   base in the republic similar to the one that was deployed in neighboring
   Kyrgyzstan -- that would have helped Tajikistan's authorities along budget
   lines. Especially since the Aini military airport is still without a
   proprietor and could serve NATO subunits within the framework of the
   operation in Afghanistan, where the situation is getting worse every day.

   US President Barack Obama, who promised to withdraw American troops from
   Afghanistan's territory by 2014, is apparently becoming even more bogged
   down in that country. According to the report of the news service Voice of
   America, in his speech on Wednesday, Obama will talk about how the
   withdrawal will begin in July and lay out the plan for transferring Afghan
   territory to the local military by 2014. In the meantime, Aleksandr
   Knyazev, a senior scientific associate of the RAN (Russian Academy of
   Sciences) Institute of Oriental Studies, is certain that the United States
   and NATO are implementing a plan not to withdraw troops from Afghanistan's
   territory, but to transfer the soldiers to the country's northern
   provinces and farther on to the countries of Central Asia.

   "As far as I know, talks are underway between Kabul and Washington on the
   creation of permanent American military bases on Afghanistan's territory,"
   Knyazev told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. According to him, the Americans (and in
   part the NATO members) intend to leave the southern part of the country,
   keeping several key bases: Shindand -- in the Iranian sector, Kabul -- to
   preserve influence on the country's government, and Kandahar -- because of
   its strategic importance. "And the rest of the land forces will be moved
   to the northern part of Afghanistan and to the republics of Central Asia,
   above all to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Everything is being done to
   implement this plan: and that means not only the construction of a really
   huge base with a strong infrastructure in the northern part of
   Afghanistan, but also preparation of the 'political soil' for the local
   public," the expert noted.

   "One can say that the Americans overall are expanding their presence in
   the entire region. There are a great many signs, including everyday ones,
   that the Americans have come here for the long term. In Tajikistan i tself
   cases of American subunits crossing the border on a working basis are not
   infrequent. In Kyrgyzstan's Batken everything is already prepared for the
   deployment of a new American base. I saw all this personally and I can
   state that the United States is digging in in Central Asia," Aleksandr
   Knyazev told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. Taking that into account, one can assume
   that Washington will try to open new military facilities and bases in the
   region's republics. After taking over key positions in Central Asia, the
   United States would also accomplish another task -- it would be able to
   effectively restrain the interests of three major powers at once: China,
   Russia, and Iran. At the same time, their main goal is most likely the
   Heavenly Kingdom. Murghab District in Tajikistan, which borders on China,
   is considered the most appropriate foothold. "That is the best place for
   deploying a radio intelligence post to cover quite a large territory,"
   Knyazev believe s.

   (caption to photograph, photograph not included) The American military
   began the incorporation of Central Asia with the Manas Airbase in
   Kyrgyzstan.

   (Description of Source: Moscow Nezavisimaya Gazeta Online in Russian --
   Website of daily Moscow newspaper featuring varied independent political
   viewpoints and criticism of the government; owned and edited by
   businessman Remchukov; URL: http://www.ng.ru/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   7) Back to Top
   Time Works for Taliban Against United States in Afghan Mission
   Commentary by Czech Radio analyst Milan Slezak: "Afghanistan: Time Works
   for Taliban; US Wars in Time of Cuts" - Hospodarske Noviny Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 17:37:39 GMT
   Obama has made this war his own. He did not criticize his predecessor for
   the invasion of the country under Hindu Kush. He reproached him for the
   war in Iraq -- not just for its feeble justification, but also because
   Iraq is the reason why the Americans have not been able fully to
   concentrate on Afghanistan and win the conflict there in reasonable time.
   Obama has promised to correct this. However, he has been able to show only
   mixed results so far.

   A fast withdrawal of troops would these days be the thing with which he
   would score points with a large part of the US public, tired with the war.
   A June public opinion poll carried out for Washington Post and the ABC
   station showed that three-quarters of Americans would support a
   large-scale pullout from Afghanistan as early as during this summer. Last
   week, a number of senators also spoke in favor of a more substantial
   reduction of the military contingent in Afghanistan. Their letter to Obama
   is signed by Democrats and Republicans alike. They argue that the costs of
   carrying on with the war significantly exceed the potential gains. End of
   War in Sight?

   Yes, the price of the war has been enormous: 10 billion dollars, plus 300
   million (dollars) for development aid, each month. All this on top of the
   domestic economic problems, including the high unemployment rate and the
   state's indebtedness. Not to mention the casualties of the war: more than
   1,600 Americans have fallen in Afghanistan, while nearly 10,000 have
   suffered injuries.

   This has been an unpopular conflict. However, Obama will not manage to end
   it in the short time that is left until the presidential election. Yet if
   he were to succeed in convincing the American people that the end of the
   war is in sight, this would significantly help him in the election.

   There is a catch, though: th e departure must not look like a defeat. And
   so it cannot be a hurried one -- it needs to be carefully phased. Let Us
   Fight To Make Negotiations Possible

   After all, the above has also been recommended by Obama's chief military
   advisers -- outgoing Secretary of Defense Gates and Gen Petraeus. They do
   not want to see wasted the allies' military gains made in former Taliban
   strongholds: the southern Afghan provinces of Helmand and Kandahar. What
   they do want is that, for the next year, there remain sufficient troops at
   least for one more massive offensive, this time in the country's east,
   where the Taliban's power is currently strongest. This is not just about
   sheer military pressure: on the battlefield, the Americans want to gain a
   sufficiently solid position for talks with the Taliban. The talks have
   already started. Which is a good thing, because a satisfactory end of the
   Afghan conflict is unthinkable without some kind of agreement with the
   Taliban. Unfortunat ely.

   The trouble is that even the adversary would like to negotiate from a
   position of force. This is why the Taliban has intensified attacks. It has
   a major advantage over the Americans: the time is on its side. The Talibs
   know that Washington would like to withdraw most of its troops by the end
   of 2014. The Taliban is in no hurry: it is staying.

   There is one more unpredictable element with which Obama needs to reckon
   in the complex Afghan game: it is the local regime and the local Army and
   the Police, which the Americans have been training and paying, in
   cooperation with their allies, including the Czech Republic. Despite being
   vitally dependent on US support, weak Afghan President Karzai has recently
   stepped up his anti-American invectives -- and the Americans have now
   begun to retaliate. Let us make no mistake, though: the name of the game
   is, in fact, how many bases the Americans will be able to keep in
   Afghanistan -- and what this will cost them. A nd as for the Afghan Army
   and the Police: the allies will be able to begin calmly pulling out only
   when they can see that the local security forces can fully substitute
   them. Some say that they are now capable of doing this. The near future
   will show whether this is the truth or just wishful thinking.

   (Description of Source: Prague Hospodarske Noviny Online in Czech --
   Website of influential independent political, economic, and business daily
   widely read by decision makers, opinion leaders, and college-educated
   population; URL: http://hn.ihned.cz)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   8) Back to Top
   Obama Pullout Plan Triggers German Debate; Ministers, Military Disagree on
   Date&lt; br&gt;Report by Matthias Gebauer: "Afghanistan War: Obama's Plan Fires
   up German Withdrawal Debate" - Spiegel Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 16:06:43 GMT
   Berlin -- The invitation to the press statement was urgent, because
   Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle had a scheduling problem. The
   politician is flying to Sudan as early as Wednesday evening (22 June). So
   tomorrow, when US President Barack Obama's address will be commented on in
   all the capitals of the nations engaged in Afghanistan, Westerwelle will
   be far away from the microphones. Consequently, even before the
   announcement in the United States he quickly issued invitations to his
   interpretation of the historic speech in Washington, in which Obama will
   announce the return of approximately 30,000 US soldiers from the Hindu
   Kush.

   The crucial turnaround in Afghanistan is being initiated this summer, the
   foreign ministe r declared. In several cities and some provinces the
   responsibility for security will be gradually handed over from the
   international protective force ISAF (International Security Assistance
   Force) to the Afghans -- diplomats call it transition.

   Westerwelle repeated his core message several times: according to the
   foreign minister, one has now been in action on the Hindu Kush for about
   10 years. But this mission of about 5,000 German soldiers must not claim
   another 10 years.

   It became clear at Westerwelle's appearance, if not before, that Obama's
   address and the accelerated withdrawal of the US Army, which had been
   beefed up as recently as 2009, will also reopen the withdrawal debate in
   Germany. Westerwelle's appearance was a first foretaste of this
   discussion. He clearly stressed the policy for which he already had to
   fight hard at the end of last year. The goal of the German Government,
   according to Westerwelle, continues to be to reduce the German cont ingent
   from the current 5,000 soldiers plus a flexible reserve of 350 men for
   emergencies, in the winter of 2011.

   If that succeeds, Germany that will also make that the beginning of the
   ultimate withdrawal from the Hindu Kush. Domestic Policy Determines
   Withdrawal Plan

   The motives in Berlin and Washington are quite similar in Afghanistan and
   yet have little to do with the situation in the country. In this country,
   as in the United States, the mission in Afghanistan is more than unpopular
   among the population. Here, just as there, when polled about two-thirds of
   the people reject a continuation of the engagement. Obama is also coming
   under massive financial pressure, because the contingents in Afghanistan
   cost billions. By now many Americans no longer see any point in the
   mission after the killing of terror king Usama bin Ladin. In Germany it is
   less about the cost, but almost no politician wants to justify a
   continuation of the mission against the public w ish any longer.

   For Westerwelle, who still seems more than tarnished after the dramatic
   end to his chairmanship of the FDP (Free Democratic Party) and deputy
   chancellorship, in matters of Afghanistan it is also about his central
   foreign policy goals. Energetic, sometimes even against the expert advice
   from his shop and that of the military, from the time he took office he
   favored the so-called withdrawal perspective from Afghanistan and linked
   it directly to his name. If he can now in fact at least symbolically pull
   a few hundred Bundeswehr soldiers from the new mandate for the force,
   which has to be reformulated in the spring of 2012, that would be a
   personal success.

   The Federal Government is coming under pressure from the US step,
   something that has become clear to the important Cabinet members ever
   since the US trip for the purpose of the chancellor receiving the Medal of
   Freedom. During the festivities two weeks ago Obama, his defense minister
   (title a s received) and foreign minister (title as received) already
   confided the White Hous e's plans to their German colleagues in the
   abstract. No later than on the flight back the Germans realized that the
   significant US withdrawal would also trigger forceful calls in Germany for
   a similarly large pullout by the Bundeswehr. Why, the public's question
   might be, cannot Germany also withdraw one-third of its soldiers by 2012?
   Fear of the Domino Effect

   At the time Defense Minister Thomas de Maiziere was the one to put the
   German fear of a domino effect that a US withdrawal could trigger in the
   most graphic terms. He therefore asked his colleague Robert Gates "to
   consider the psychological effects of an overly ambitiously dimensioned
   withdrawal by the US side on the German and European public." Internally,
   however, his experts at the Defense Ministry, as well as diplomats at
   Westerwelle's ministry, fear that the US announcement could be a signal to
   other NATO cou ntries for a hasty pullout even before the aimed-for
   withdrawal date for all NATO combat troops. So far the end of 2014 is
   considered the date for the end of the combat mission.

   In terms of realpolitik the Federal Government is in a tight spot with its
   Afghanistan plan. It has promised to reduce the troops starting at the end
   of 2011 -- now it can no longer backpedal. Although former Defense
   Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg fought the addition to the mandate
   that this could only take place "depending on the situation," the year has
   become fixed. Further, the SPD (Social Democratic Party of Germany(, which
   still voted in favor of the last mandate, will also insist on a partial
   withdrawal or ultimately vote against the mission.

   It was not entirely by chance that Frank-Walter Steinmeier therefore came
   forward on Wednesday while on a visit to Kabul and insisted on an initial
   reduction from the end of 2011. Military Doubts Feasibility of Withdrawal&lt;
   br&gt;
   But outside the political sector there are doubts about the goal of the
   withdrawal. From the Defense Ministry voices are increasingly heard that
   consider a reduction of the German contingent unrealistic, particularly in
   the tense and further deteriorating security situation in northern
   Afghanistan. At the various meetings between diplomats and military people
   tangible arguments are already said to have broken out, according to
   Thomas de Maiziere's ministry. From the viewpoint of the generals, who
   primarily have the security of the soldiers in mind, the withdrawal goal
   came about purely politically but does not correspond with the situation
   on location. That is why there will be tough discussions in the coming
   weeks, it is said.

   The first cracks in the coalition of Angela Merkel, who herself has always
   been quite restrained on the issue of Afghanistan, are a striking reminder
   of the end of last year. At that time Guttenberg and Westerwelle
   ultimately fought publicly over the withdrawal perspective. Guttenberg,
   who quite enjoyed and fueled the fight with his political rivals, made it
   very clear at that time that as the supreme commander of the soldiers he
   had the last word about any changes in the contingent -- and linked the
   decision to his own fate. No Mud-Slinging, as in von Guttenberg's Days

   This time there will not be a similar cock fight. Westerwelle and de
   Maiziere, at least according to the plan, have agreed to coordinate
   closely on the matter and want to keep potential conflicts behind closed
   doors. With a minister such as de Maiziere, by nature calmer and also less
   vain than Guttenberg, this definitely seems possible. Nonetheless, or at
   least that is what some of his close advisers say, the new man at the
   ministry will also stand up unyieldingly for the interests of his soldiers
   and if necessary also submit his veto if he considers a cut impossible to
   justify. He has already said twice that currently he co nsiders the
   pullout of combat units at the end of 2011 to be unrealistic.

   In his somewhat early statement Wednesday morning Foreign Ministry chief
   Westerwelle visibly made efforts to str ess his proximity to Guttenberg's
   successor. Of course, according to Westerwelle, the concrete planning for
   a reduction is a matter for the Defense Ministry, in whose chief he has
   "full confidence." And although he himself has pushed for a date for this
   withdrawal more strongly than any other German government politician, this
   (withdrawal) will definitely not be undertaken in an "unpremeditated or
   rapid" way.

   At the latest in the fall, when the mandate discussion begins, Westerwelle
   will be measured by these words.

   (Description of Source: Hamburg Spiegel Online in German -- News website
   funded by the Spiegel group which funds Der Spiegel weekly and the Spiegel
   television magazine; URL: http://www.spiegel.de)

   Material in the World News Connect ion is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   9) Back to Top
   French pullout to take place in consultation with Afghan authorities - AFP
   (Domestic Service)
   Thursday June 23, 2011 15:37:53 GMT
   Paris, 23 June 2011: The timetable for the beginning of the withdrawal of
   the French troops in Afghanistan will be put together "in consultation"
   with the Afghan authorities, said Defence Ministry spokesman Laurent
   Teisseire on Thursday (23 June).

   The end of the French deployment in Afghanistan is being started a year
   ahead of the presidential election with the announcement by the Elysee
   Palace (president's office) on Thursday of "a gradu al withdrawal" of the
   reinforcements sent to the country, taking place at the same time as the
   scheduled repatriation of one third of American forces by the summer of
   2012.

   "We are engaging in a gradual `reset' (word as given, in English) of the
   reinforcements that we had employed during the past few years," it was
   confirmed by Laurent Teisseire at the weekly Defence Ministry press
   briefing.

   "At present, what the staff command is going to put together, in
   consultation with our allies and the Afghans, is technical solutions in
   response to the instructions given by the president in line with a
   timetable comparable to that of the American," he added.

   "We will move from where we are now when the Afghans are able to take
   over," the spokesman continued, specifying that "it is not a matter of
   whether it is Monday or Tuesday, but of discussing very rapidly with the
   Afghans the time when they are ready".

   M. Teis seire did not provide any details with regard to the number of
   military personnel affected by this gradual withdrawal from Afghanistan,
   where there are currently 4,000 men.

   Defence Minister Gerard Longuet had said a little earlier on Thursday that
   France would make "the same moves" as the Americans, the scale of whose
   withdrawal he put at a quarter of their numbers by the summer of 2012.

   "Our withdrawal will be proportionate to that of the Americans," was all
   that Laurent Teisseire would say. "When we know what the Afghans are able
   to do, then precise figures will be released," he stressed. "It is not a
   unilateral step, you do not enter into discussions by setting a number in
   advance," the spokesman emphasized.

   "The president has established the framework as head of the armed forces.
   It is now up to the professionals to put together a detailed plan and
   implement it," he concluded, calling for people not t o be too focused
   "too early on a quantitative approach ".

   (Description of Source: Paris AFP (Domestic Service) in French -- domestic
   service of independent French press agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   10) Back to Top
   French to begin Afghan pullout with timetable comparable to US one - AFP
   (Domestic Service)
   Thursday June 23, 2011 15:02:27 GMT
   Paris, 23 June 2011: France will begin "a gradual withdrawal" of its
   reinforcements in Afghanistan "proportionately and in line with a
   timetable comparable to that of the withdrawal of the American
   reinforcements,&amp; quot; it was announced by the Elysee Palace (president's
   office) in a statement on Thursday morning (23 June).

   The statement by the French presidency follows American President Barack
   Obama's announcement on Wednesday evening of the withdrawal of one third
   of the American forces stationed in Afghanistan - in other words, 33,000
   men - by the summer of 2012.

   The American president also ordered the repatriation from as early as this
   year of 10,000 of the 99,000 or so American soldiers currently on the
   ground.

   Ahead of his speech, Barack Obama had a telephone conversation on
   Wednesday with his French counterpart, Nicolas Sarkozy "to discuss with
   him our shared commitment in Afghanistan", the Elysee Palace specified.

   Nicolas Sarkozy "emphasized that France shares the American analysis and
   objectives and welcomes the decision taken by President Obama", added the
   same source.

   Following his meeting with the American president, t he French head of
   state "confirmed that France will remain fully engaged, along with its
   allies, at the side of the Afghan people to follow through to its
   conclusion the process of transition", the Elysee continued.

   "In view of the progress made, it will begin a gradual withdrawal of
   reinforcements sent to Afghanistan, proportionately and in line with a
   timetable comparable to that of the withdrawal of the American
   reinforcements. This withdrawal will be carried out in liaison with our
   allies and with the Afghan authorities," the French presidency noted.

   Four thousand French soldiers are currently deployed in Afghanistan.
   Sixty-two soldiers have died in the country since the end of 2001.

   With nine French soldiers having died in Afghanistan in less than six
   months, 2011 is already one of the most deadly years for French troops
   deployed in the country for nearly 10 years now.

   The final withdrawal of the coalition forces in Afghan istan is scheduled
   for the summer of 2014, but the question of an initial partial withdrawal
   of French troops has arisen one year ahead of the presidential election.

   A few days ago the Defence Ministry noted out that "the objective of a
   partial withdrawal in the second half of 2011 remains an option which is
   open and is being studied".

   (Description of Source: Paris AFP (Domestic Service) in French -- domestic
   service of independent French press agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   11) Back to Top
   Joint Bulgaria, Serbian, US Exercises Open at Novo Selo Military Training
   Range
   "Bulgarian, US, Serbian Military Train Together at Novo Selo" -- BT A
   headline - BTA
   Thursday June 23, 2011 15:11:37 GMT
   (Description of Source: Sofia BTA in English -- state-owned but
   politically neutral press agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   12) Back to Top
   US, Afghan Helicopter Pilots To Train at Czech Airport
   "U.S., Afghan Helicopter Pilots To Train at Czech Airport" -- CTK headline
   - CTK
   Thursday June 23, 2011 13:56:34 GMT
   The Centre of Air Training in Pardubice is operated by the LOM Praha state
   firm subordinate to the Defence Ministry.

   T he Honeywell U.S. company has ordered the training of foreign pilots and
   air personnel in Pardubice. The company is focused on aviation and defence
   and it has a branch in the Czech Republic, LOM Praha spokeswoman Martina
   Fiserova told CTK.

   Each training group should comprise six to eight pilots and the courses
   will last from seven to ten weeks. The other course is to end by the end
   of September at the latest.

   The municipal authority expressed fears of high noise in the surroundings
   of the airport during the training.

   However, the airport assured locals that it should meet the noise limits,
   Frankova said.

   Foreign pilot will use the Mi-17 helicopters that are less noisy than the
   slower Mi-2s.

   The flying training will last four to five weeks out of the total length
   of the course.

   The helicopters will fly on weekdays at 10:00 and the flights will end at
   14:00 on Friday. The pilots should undergo the minimal number of night
   flights and th e helicopters should land at 22:00 at the latest.

   Only two helicopters that are currently at disposal in Pardubice will be
   used for the training, Frankova said.

   The Gripen supersonic fighters were sent to Pardubice from the repaired
   airport in Caslav, central Bohemia, in early June. Some of the fighters
   that operate under NATO's direct command can fly at the weekend as well.

   (Description of Source: Prague CTK in English -- largest national news
   agency; independent and fully funded from its own commercial activities)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   13) Back to Top
   Czech Commentary Argues Afghanistan, Libya 'Indicative' of US 'Anti-War
   Trend'
   Commentary by Da niel Anyz: "American Wars in Times of Austerity. Libya:
   United States Does Not Enjoy Going to War One Little Bit Any More." -
   Hospodarske Noviny Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 14:00:38 GMT
   According to yet another theory, this is not a case of some cyclical
   change in US foreign policy that the United States has already undergone
   in the past (when, for instance, after isolationism under President
   Herbert Hoover there followed entry into World War Two under F. D.
   Roosevelt), but rather of an entirely new establishment of rules that,
   when viewing foreign policy, America must look over its shoulder and take
   into account whether its domestic economic and financial strength are
   sufficient. There Are No Funds

   At the current time there is no such financial strength sufficient for the
   distribution of funds. This is not merely a case of the often cited
   federal deficit or the sta te debt, which is forcing the United States to
   take care over every dollar, but also of the budgets of individual states
   and cities that are full of holes. In the effects of these Americans are
   feeling in a much more concrete way (in the form of a lack of money for
   schools, police, and firefighters) that the country has a problem than in
   the hard-to-imagine sum of the state debt.

   At the beginning of the week this was stated quite clearly by the US
   Conference of Mayors, when it called on Congress to bring to a quick end
   the military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and to redirect the
   military funds to "urgent domestic needs." According to the mayors,
   American taxes should be used to pay for "bridges in Baltimore and Kansas
   City, not in Baghdad and Kandahar." And let us add that the last time the
   association issued a similar resolution was in 1973 at the time of the
   Vietnam War.

   However, it is not merely long-running and financially drai ning conflicts
   such as Iraq and Afghanistan, which together have already cost $1.3
   billion, that point to the falling willingness of citizens and politicians
   to spend on foreign missions. This (unwillingness) is also making itself
   clearly felt in the current expedition in Libya, which so far has cost the
   United States "only" $800 million.

   In Congress, in particular in the lower chamber, the House of
   Representatives, liberal Democrats have joined with Republicans, some of
   whom represent the Tea Party, to form an uncustomary coalition of
   relatively strong opposition, which is making life very complicated for
   the White House. Thanks to this (coalition) a resolution was passed by the
   House of Representatives criticizing Obama for not making clear the
   reasons for the American intervention in Libya and a further proposal that
   would have refused the White House any further funds for the operation in
   Libya only narrowly failed to get through. In addition, the Whi te House
   also has around its neck a complaint made by a group of Congressmen that
   Obama exceeded the law -- specifically the War Powers Act from 1973, which
   was passed by Congress at that time over the veto of President Richard
   Nixon in order to limit the war-making powers of the White House on the
   basis of the experience with Vietnam.

   In comparison with Vietnam, Libya is a negligible military operation.
   However, there is one similarity here. At that time as well as now a much
   more general distaste for an active US role on the international scene was
   expressed in opposition to a specific conflict. Isolation or Withdrawal?

   In a poll in mid-May most Americans were in favor of the opinion that "the
   United States should devote less attention to problems overseas and
   concentrate more on problems at home." For the first time during the last
   10 years this opinion is shared by a majority (55%) of voters who
   characterize themselves as conservative Republica ns. And this shift is
   even more evident in the question concerning whether the "United States
   should look after its own interests on the international scene." Now,
   again for the first time in 10 years, this opinion is held by more
   Republicans (45%) than Democrats (43%).

   And, if these figures are reminiscent of the situation after Vietnam, then
   there only remains the question indicated in the introduction. Is this
   merely part of a cycle, as at that time, or is it the start of a permanent
   withdrawal? So far we do not know, but both Afghanistan and Libya are
   indicative of a trend. America is ceasing to enjoy going to war.

   (Description of Source: Prague Hospodarske Noviny Online in Czech --
   Website of influential independent political, economic, and business daily
   widely read by decision makers, opinion leaders, and college-educated
   population; URL: http://hn.ihned.cz)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   sourc e cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   14) Back to Top
   Political Consideration Leads to US Pullout From Afghanistan
   International Observation by Xinhua Washington reporters Wang Fengfeng, Du
   Jing and Kabul reporters Yan Liang and Zhang Jianhua: "US Troop Pullout
   From Afghanistan Mainly Out of Political Consideration" - Xinhua Domestic
   Service
   Thursday June 23, 2011 14:35:31 GMT
   (Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua Domestic Service in Chinese --
   China's official news service (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regar ding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   15) Back to Top
   Xinhua 'Analysis': 'Tough Time' Ahead of Afghan Forces as US Begins Troops
   Pull Out
   Updated version: rewording subject line for clarity, adding Urgent topic
   tag; Xinhua "Analysis": "Tough Time Ahead of Afghan Forces as U.S. Begins
   Troops Pull Out" - Xinhua
   Thursday June 23, 2011 14:24:54 GMT
   KABUL, June 23 (Xinhua) -- The decision of U.S. President Barack Obama to
   begin troops' drawdown in Afghanistan within weeks will add to the burden
   of new brand but fledgling Afghan security forces, local analysts believe.

   According to Afghans, the time to withdraw U.S. and allied troops from the
   militancy-plagued Afghanistan is not ripe as Taliban-led militancy is
   almost in its peak and Taliba n fighters by carrying out suicide attacks
   and roadside bombings often claim the life of civilians and security
   forces."The time is not ripe for the troops withdrawal from Afghanistan
   because the Afghan national security forces are not enough capable to
   tackle with the security situation independently, " political analyst and
   human rights activist Qasim Akhgar maintained.Obama announced Wednesday
   night to take back 10,000 of his forces from Afghanistan this year and
   another 23,000 troops will be departed home in 2012.The major decision is
   announced amid increasing Taliban-led militancy in Afghanistan.In the
   first phase, as per schedule the security of seven cities in provinces
   including the capital city Kabul minus Sarobi - - a Taliban bastion 60 km
   east of Kabul city would be handed over to Afghan national security
   forces."Many Afghans believe that troops withdrawal at this stage when the
   Afghan national security force is not enough capable to defend country' s
   boundaries would enable Taliban and terrorists to come back and at least
   create law and order problems," Akhgar observedThe strength of Afghan
   National Security Force (ANSF) at the moment is 297,000 which include some
   166,000 army, 131,000 police and its strength would reach to 305,000 by
   October this year, according to officials.However, the absence of capable
   airpower to support ground forces, according to observers, would
   negatively undermine the war on terror and stabilizing security
   process."In all wars, the airpower plays effective role to win, but
   unfortunately Afghanistan does not have it. We do not have jet fighters to
   pound terrorists' hideouts," Nazari Pariani, editor-in- chief of a local
   newspaper Daily Mandegar, pointed out.Meantime, Afghan Defense Ministry
   spokesman Zahir Azimi said Wednesday, "We are confident that ANSF is
   enough capable to ensure security for the country."However, he warned the
   transition process will be a difficult task and there would be some tough
   battles, suicide bombings and insurgents' attacks all over the country in
   coming weeks and months.Taliban outfit fighting Afghan and NATO-led troops
   in a sharp reaction downplayed President Obama's decision and vowed to
   continue war till the complete pull out for foreign forces from
   Afghanistan."Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (the name of Taliban ousted
   regime) once again wants to make it clear that the solution for the Afghan
   crisis lies in the full withdrawal of all foreign troops immediately," a
   statement sent to media said.Keeping in mind the Taliban inflexibility and
   NATO-led forces failure to curb insurgency in Afghanistan, handing over
   security responsibility to Afghan forces in such a critical stage wherein
   the national government is largely dependent on foreign aid and the
   national army is poor equipped would prove challenging, observers
   believe.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's
   official news s ervice for English-language audiences (New China News
   Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   16) Back to Top
   Obama Afghan Withdrawal Plan Reflects Concern about Cost
   Commentary by Corine Lesnes: "Afghanstan: 10,000 Fewer US Troops by End of
   2012" - LeMonde.fr
   Thursday June 23, 2011 13:50:27 GMT
   The US President seemed to agree with the increasing numbers of people in
   Congress who think that the United States can no longer afford to spend $2
   billion a week to "build a country where none has ever existed," as
   Democratic Senator Joe Manchin put it. He made no reference to the thing
   that was at the heart of the strategy announced in December 2009 -- the
   civilian "surge," the dispatch of cooperation workers. Nor did he mention
   the counterinsurgency method pursued by Gen David Petraeus, or the "hero"
   of Iraq, who is just about to leave for the CIA. "Let's finish these wars
   responsibly," he said, "and return to the American dream, which lies at
   the heart of our history." "Petraeus loses"

   Barack Obama announced a timetable for withdrawal deemed "symbolic" by the
   insurgents, which will still leave 70,000 troops on the ground in 2013 --
   that is, twice as many as when he was elected to the White House in 2008.
   Though he did not acceded to military chiefs' demands, neither did he
   grant satisfaction to the left wing of his party, within which even one of
   his loyal supporters, Senator for Illinois Dick Durbin, together with 25
   other elected representatives, signed a letter calling for a "substantial"
   reduction of forces.

   According to this timetable, hailed by Afghan President Hamid Karzai,
   10,000 troops will return by the end of 2011 (apparently the military want
   to lose only 5,000 men.) Before September 2012, Mr Obama said, 23,000 more
   troops will be brought home. A few weeks before the presidential election
   in November 2012, the "surge" ordered by Mr Obama will thus have been
   brought to an end.

   The White House is pleading for the three objectives set by Mr Obama to be
   met -- to halt the Taliban's progress, to deny Al-Qa'ida any safe haven,
   and to train the Afghan security forces so that they can take over
   responsibility for the country. "We're starting this withdrawal from a
   position of strength," Mr Obama said. According to documents seized at
   Usama Bin Ladin's villa in Pakistan, he explained, Al-Qa'ida has been
   largely dismantled. In the next phase the United States intends to
   organize a NATO summit in Chicago at the end of May, at the same time as a
   G8 summit of the leading industrial countries.

   Criticisms have come from both sides. On the right, supporters of the
   "surge" condemned what they called a "political" decision, which envisages
   a complete withdrawal of reinforcements two months before the presidential
   election, whereas the military called for another three months.

   "Petraeus loses, Biden wins," according to Republican Senator Lindsey
   Graham, one of the most heeded "hawks," in an allusion to the fall 2009
   debate in which the vice president advocated a modest presence in
   Afghanistan, confined to counterterrorism. The Republican floor leader in
   the House, John Boehner, adopted a midway stance, saying that he was
   "worried about any hasty withdrawal."

   On the left, some people, such as Representative Mark Udall, expressed
   regret that the President had "not presented a more aggressive plan " for
   withdrawal. Waxing sarcastic about the timetable for NATO's withdrawal,
   movie director Michael Moore promised: "I'll stop smoking in 2014."

   As though the operation in Libya was one too many, the rejection of
   foreign "adventures" has suddenly accelerated. To a public weary of an
   endless campaign, Mr Obama gave assurances that the &amp;amp;quo t;tide of
   war" had begun to "ebb." Between isolationism and agitation at the four
   ends of the earth, he argued for a "more centered" approach. "We must be
   both pragmatic and passionate," he said. When innocent people are being
   massacred, "we must bring international action together." And give
   priority to commando operations rather than large scale interventions.

   It remains to be seen how the United States' allies and adversaries
   interpret this speech, according to Lt Gen David Barno, a former officer
   in Afghanistan: "Is it an expression o f US resolve or the start of a
   global withdrawal?"

   (Description of Source: Paris LeMonde.fr in French -- Website of Le Monde,
   leading center-left daily; URL: http://www.lemonde.fr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   17) Back to Top
   Obama's Afghan Withdawal Decision Dictated by 'Domestic Politics'
   Editorial: "Time for NATO To Withdraw from Afghanistan" - LeMonde.fr
   Thursday June 23, 2011 13:08:50 GMT
   of US troops from Afghanistan by the end of summer 2012, by which time the
   US presidential campaign will be at its height, Barack Obama was
   responding primarily to the impera tives of domestic politics.

   This decision, which will put an end to the "surge," that is, the troop
   reinforcements decided on by the White House in 2009, should, he hopes,
   enable him to outmaneuver his adversaries when he joins the battle for his
   reelection. This war, which has been going on for the past 10 years and
   which has already cost the lives of over 1,500 US soldiers and $450
   billion, is growing increasingly unpopular. It was George W Bush's war,
   but then the "surge" made it Barack Obama's war. This impression had to be
   erased from voters' minds.

   The elimination of former Al-Qa'ida leader Usama Bin Ladin made it
   possible to attempt this. We may doubt that President Obama will achieve
   it completely, with what could appear as a half-measure. In his 13-minute
   speech, he answered none of the essential questions about Afghanistan's
   future, the Afghan forces' ability to shoulder the tasks due to be
   transferred to them in 2014, the nat ure of the dialogue with the Taliban,
   or how to manage Pakistan's double game.

   Having been notified in advance of the substance of the US President's
   speech during a telephone conversation with him Wednesday, President
   Nicolas Sarkozy preempted him Thursday morning by announcing the gradual
   and parallel withdrawal of French troops from Afghanistan. This decision,
   consistent with the objectives agreed at the November 2010 NATO summit in
   Lisbon, is a logical one. Proportionately, since France's contingent
   comprises only 4000 men, it follows the principle of "in together, out
   together."

   Though Mr Sarkozy will permit no hint of this to emerge, we can imagine
   that he feels somewhat frustrated. In response to the United States'
   constant complaints about Europe's low level of involvement in the war
   against the Taliban in Afghanistan, President Sarkozy, following his
   election, agreed to increase the French contingent, in parallel with the
   US "surge.&amp;q uot; Now he is having to fall into line with Washington once
   more, without however having the satisfaction of a mission accomplished.

   The French president can console himself by considering that he, too, has
   eliminated a thorny issue from the 2012 election campaign. The pace of
   French losses (62 deaths) has accelerated in recent months and, despite
   all official efforts to control communication about the human and
   financial cost of the war, and despite the lack of parliamentary debate on
   the French engagement, national consensus on the war in Afghanistan has
   shown that it is not unbreakable. But in order for this withdrawal not to
   turn into a defeat, the West will have to display the utmost steadfastness
   in its dialogue with the Taliban in order to secure a political
   compromise. Before it is too late.

   (Description of Source: Paris LeMonde.fr in French -- Website of Le Monde,
   leading center-left daily; URL: http://www.lemonde.fr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   18) Back to Top
   Article Asks US to Focus on Pakistans Security Concerns on Afghanistan,
   India
   Article by Khalid Khokhar: Addressing Pakistans security concerns - The
   News Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 11:53:36 GMT
   One of the contentious issues that divide the security establishment of
   the two countries is the US insistence on early launch of military
   operation against Taliban factions, in particular, the Haqqani network --
   that Americans allege is the launching pad for violence in Afghanistan.
   Pakistan contends that an urgent operation in North Waziristan will
   destroy our long-term shared objectives to root out terrorism from the
   roots. The gains achieved from South Waziristan, Bunner, Lower Dir,
   Shangla and Swat areas need to be consolidated -- lest it may not go to
   militants again. In addition to this, Pakistan military became
   over-stretched in providing relief operations during last summer's
   worst-ever flooding that affected one-fifth of the entire population.
   However, Pakistan military has affirmed their resolve to rein in
   extremists activities in North Waziristan and will move at a time of their
   own choosing after assessing own priorities, national interests and
   political consensus that imperative for its success.

   Public opinion is divided and most political leaders have been warning the
   government of serious implications of such an operation that may
   permanently antagonize the Pashtun population. The second controversial
   issue is the use of pilotless drone strikes on the tribal areas of
   Pakistan. The number of US predator drone strikes on the
   Pakistan-Afghanistan border by the CIA Special Activity Division has risen
   dramatically in 2010 under President Barrack Obama, surpassing all-time
   total number of drone attacks between 2004-2009. CIA Director Leon
   Panetta, without acknowledging the extent of the drone programme, has
   called it "very effective." Uptill as of 16 May, 2011, the US has carried
   out 240 strikes, rooting out just 20 terrorists and killing 2352 innocent
   civilians. According to Brookings Institution, drone attacks are killing
   at least 10 civilian for every militant killed. Pakistan challenges that
   attacking militants on the soil of a long-time US ally, is strongly
   resented because the drones kill hundreds of innocent civilians along with
   few militants, causing widespread resentment against the Americans.
   Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Chief, Imran Khan has recently requested the
   Supreme Court to declare drone strikes as 'war crime' and a violation of
   the sovereignty of Pakistan. It is high tim e the US must consider the use
   of unmanned aircrafts in side settled areas of Pakistan. The third
   arguable issue is that the US must actively expand economic and military
   assistance to Pakistan, including supporting the reconstruction
   opportunity zones (ROZs) for tribal areas of Pakistan -- so promised many
   years back but yet to be fulfilled. Rapidly expand trading opportunities,
   including fast tracking a bilateral trade agreement between the US and
   Pakistan. There is an expeditious need to increase the Coalition Support
   Funding to $2 billion a month to support the important role of Pakistan in
   fighting terrorism.

   Another important justifiable security concern relates to India. Pakistan
   sees I ndia's increasing presence in Afghanistan as a threat to its
   security. India is using Afghanistan's territory to launch attacks in
   Balochistan seeking to balkanise Pakistan. Pakistan has given proofs of
   Indian involvement in exacerbating the turmoil in Balochistan via
   Afghanista n but India is unlikely to ever accept such a charge.

   RAND scholar Christine Fair, a leading American expert on South Asia
   disclosed in an objective analysis carried by 'American journal Foreign
   Affairs' has validated Pakistan's legitimate claim about India's
   involvement in fanning unrest in Balochistan.

   Pakistan's fifth legitimate security concern is that US must endorse
   security guarantee against India on the eastern plank of the country. The
   US wants to increase the number of Pakistani troops deployed to stamp out
   extremism on the Western front. "Report on Progress toward Security and
   Stability in Afghanistan" said over 147,000 Pakistani troops were
   participating in the ongoing campaign against the Taliban in Pakistan's
   tribal region. Pakistan argues that there always remain a possibility of
   facing a threat of conventional war from the eastern borders, therefore,
   it cannot scale down the strength of the troops deployed on the eastern
   borders alongs ide India. It is pertinent to mention that at one point
   Indian troops deployed along Pakistani border reached four hundred
   thousand. This level of concentration of Armour and Mechanized Forces near
   Pakistani border was obviously a cause of worry for Pakistan. The factor
   of Indian threat has not vanished and will have to be obviously catered
   for in the overall defence matrix of Pakistan.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The News Online in English -- Website of
   a widely read, influential English daily, member of the Jang publishing
   group. Neutral editorial policy, good coverage of domestic and
   international issues. Usually offers leading news and analysis on issues
   related to war against terrorism. Circulation estimated at 55,000; URL:
   http://www.thenews.com.pk/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dep t. of
   Commerce.

   19) Back to Top
   Article Criticizes US, NATO for Targeting Energy Rich Countries
   Article by Iftekhar A Khan: "Just seven years on Fleeting moments" - The
   News Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 12:43:25 GMT
   denominator. All the targeted countries, which are militarily weak Muslim
   states, possess either huge energy reserves or are situated along critical
   routes to energy sources. While wars go on in four countries--Afghanistan,
   Iraq, Libya and Yemen--in the fifth, Pakistan, it is escalating. Pretexts
   vary for the invasion of these countries. In Afghanistan, the Western
   forces are fighting to "defend (Western) freedoms and values"; in other
   countries, like Libya, there isn't even a need for a pretext. Only Barack
   Obama's recent proclamation would do, that the US has the right to wage
   wars wherever it considers its "interests and values were at stake."

   Before Mr Obama entered the White House, people suffering in various
   countries because of US policies had hoped for a positive change. He had
   given overtures that there would be such a change. Besides, he gave the
   impression that he was a thinking man with a sense of history, unlike his
   predecessor, George W Bush, who was quick on the draw.

   During his eight years in office, George Bush had ordered 45 drone strikes
   in Pakistan's tribal areas. In his less than three years in office, Obama,
   who is the recipient of the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize, has ordered more than
   two hundred. Kicking off his presidency, he ordered two drone strikes
   right on his third day in the White House. One of them killed a
   pro-government tribal elder and his extended family in Fata, including
   minor children.

   The drone is said to be Obama's favourite weapon of war because it does a
   clean job, with no mess at the joysticks end. Sitting thousands of miles
   away, the drone operators neither see the splattering of blood and
   splintering of bones, nor hear the wailing of the kin of those who have
   been killed.

   In Libya, UN resolution 1973 provides enough cover for the US-led alliance
   to launch a devastating air campaign to obliterate the infrastructure and
   annihilate the civilian population before the boots could move in. As the
   Libyan people face the most perilous situation, the robed Arab leaderships
   observe a deafening silence. As if it's a heart attack they think only
   happens to others.

   The Libyan war, already into its third month, is moving apace. The
   combined air forces of the US-UK-France coalition have destroyed almost
   everything that moved; now they are destroying all things that stand. Even
   Al Fateh University in Tripoli was hit by cruise missiles, as confirmed by
   former congresswoman Cynthia McKinney, who has recently been on he r
   second fact-finding mission to Libya. The university has 10,000
   undergraduates, 800 master's degree candidates, and 18 PhDs enrolled. Ms
   McKinney is the candidate of the Green Party in the 2012 presidential
   election.

   On June 12, speaking over Progressive Radio's News Hour, McKinney said she
   witnessed non-military sites, such as hospitals, schools and homes bombed,
   which caused innumerable civilian casualties. Is destroying hospitals and
   universities part of the "humanitarian intervention" that the Nato forces
   have launched in Libya?

   Evidently, the first phase of the invasion is to completely decimate
   Libya's infrastructure, because only then could the second phase
   begin--the phase of the country's reconstruction by Western companies,
   with the use of Libyan oil money. What we witness in Libya is a replay of
   the invasion of Iraq, minus the hoax of Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass
   destruction.

   Former US secretary of state George Shultz, who just before the Iraq war
   was a member of the War Council, wrote an article in The Washington Post,
   in which he said: "A strong foundation exists for immediate military
   action against Hussein and for a multilateral effort to rebuild Iraq after
   he is gone." When Shultz advised the attack on Iraq, he was president of
   Bechtel Corporation, which was to get the biggest contract for the
   country's reconstruction. Seven years later, a similar situation is
   emerging in Libya.

   For imperial powers, there is n o business better than the war business.
   And this phenomenon isn't new. Brig Gen Smedley Butler of Britain, winner
   of the Military Cross, had detailed in his 1935 book War is a Racket how
   profitable the business of war was. Imperialist policies haven't since
   changed.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The News Online in English -- Website of
   a widely read, influential English daily, member of the Jang publishing
   group. Neutral editorial policy, good coverage of do mestic and
   international issues. Usually offers leading news and analysis on issues
   related to war against terrorism. Circulation estimated at 55,000; URL:
   http://www.thenews.com.pk/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   20) Back to Top
   Iraq -- Limited Reaction to POTUS Speech on US Troop Withdrawal from
   Afghanistan - Iraq -- OSC Summary
   Thursday June 23, 2011 12:45:29 GMT
   , Al-Sumariyah News posts a 500-word factual report entitled: "Obama
   yields to the people's pressure and announces the beginning of the
   withdrawal of 33,000 soldiers from Afghanistan." The report cites some
   political o bservers as saying that Obama's decision to withdraw 33,000
   soldiers from Afghanistan came as a result of "pressures exercised by the
   American people, particularly after a news conference held by the
   conservatives two days ago which urged Obama to expedite the withdrawal
   from Iraq and Afghanistan." The report also posts some quotes from the
   President's speech. (Beirut Al-Sumariyah News in Arabic -- Iraqi news
   agency affiliated with Al-Sumariyah Television, private Iraqi satellite
   television, broadcasting from Beirut; URL:

   http://www.alsumarianews.com/ http://www.alsumarianews.com ) On 23 June

   , the Association of Muslim Scholars posts a 300-word report entitled:
   "Barack Obama announces the beginning of the implementation of the plan to
   withdraw the US occupation forces from Afghanistan." The report posts two
   quotes from the President's speech and also cites US Secretary of Defense
   Robert Gates as saying that "the partial withdrawal o f the US forces from
   Afghanistan that was announced by President Obama provides more resources,
   time, and flexibility to achieve success and will not endanger the
   progress that has been achieved over the last year and a half." (Baghdad
   The Association of Muslim Scholars in Iraq in Arabic -- Official website
   of the Sunni Association of Muslim Scholars in Iraq; URL:

   http://www.iraq-amsi.org/ http://www.iraq-amsi.org/ )

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   21) Back to Top
   US Troop Withdrawal From Afghanistan 'Propaganda Stunt'
   interview with Rudik Iskuzhin, cochairman of Russian Federation Council
   group for cooperation with Afghan National Assembly, by Igor Yavlyanskiy;
   pla ce, date not given: "'United States Will Retain Influence in
   Afghanistan After Troop Withdrawal.' Situation in Country Will Develop
   According to Iraqi Scenario, Senator Rudik Iskuzhin Believes" -- for
   assistance with multimedia elements, contact the OSC Customer Center at
   (800) 205-8615 or OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov - Izvestiya Online (Moscow
   Edition)
   Thursday June 23, 2011 11:23:12 GMT
   Afghanistan to the last

   What will happen to Afghanistan after 2014, when the last American soldier
   is expected to leave the country? Senator Rudik Iskuzhin, cochairman of
   the Federation Council group for cooperation with the Afghan National
   Assembly and an expert on Asia, spoke to Izvestiya about this.

   (Yavlyanskiy) Do you know the American troops' withdrawal schedule?

   (Iskuzhin) In general outline. One-third of the military contingent is to
   leave Afghan territory by the end of 2012 - that is, by the next
   presidential election in the United States. Some 97,000 servicemen are
   there now. That is, 33,000-35,000 soldiers will return home.

   (Yavlyanskiy) But these are roughly the numbers that were additionally
   sent to Afghanistan at the beginning of 2010, are they not?

   (Iskuzhin) The reinforcement was set precisely the task of ensuring the
   troop withdrawal. Some 10,000 soldiers from the auxiliary subunits are
   expected to return home already before the end of this year. Congress is
   insisting that this number be increased to 15,000. In any case it is clear
   that the troop withdrawal will be dictated at the first stage not by
   military but by political considerations. From my viewpoint this is a
   propaganda stunt ahead of the presidential election.

   (Yavlyanskiy) The White House does not have a clear-cut plan of
   withdrawal. You have said before that it will most likely be carried out
   in a "hands-on" manner, depending on the operational situation.

   (Iskuzhin) The Americans will keep a formidable military force - 25,000
   soldiers with combat experience - on Afghan territory until the last
   moment. I am certain that even after 2014 the United States will retain
   the potential for strong-arm influence over the situation in the country.
   At the same time the Americans will make active use of their Iraqi
   experience.

   (Yavlyanskiy) In what does this consist?

   (Iskuzhin) The US Congress requested more than $7 billion for 2012 in
   connection with the American troop withdrawal from Iraq. This money will
   be needed to expand the presence. There will be at least 15 American
   missions there - in all the big cities. More than 17,000 people will work
   in them. They will be diplomats, military people, and staffers of economic
   missions. There will be 8,000 staffers in Baghdad, for example. This is
   plainly not a diplomatic mission. It is a kind of distinct form of
   military presence for the postwar period.

   (Yavlyanskiy) Which military functions will these people be able to
   fulfill?

   (Iskuzhin) A simple example: A special structure is being set up to
   conduct air operations. Officially - to evacuate the injured and personnel
   in critical situations. But there are specific tasks too - escorting
   convoys, reconnoitering roads, carrying out rapid-response operations. It
   is proposed that aviation will be subordinate to this structure, be based
   at 19 different airfields, and be able to use practically all Iraqi
   landing strips. The network of medical establishments is being expanded.
   They are, in point of fact, military hospitals. From this it is possible
   to draw the conclusion that the American troops are formally pulling out
   of Iraq, but the military and intelligence presence remains there.

   (Yavlyanskiy) And yet it turns out, all the same, does it not, that the
   United States is seriously exposing its NATO allies, who have military
   contingents in Afghanistan?

   (Iskuzhin) I do not believe that the United States will pull out of
   Afghanistan so simply. It is already practically clear that NATO will
   retain all the air bases after 2014. In addition, the United States is
   taking specific geopolitical steps to weaken Afghanistan. There is, for
   example, a plan to divide Afghanistan into three zones - North
   (Turkic-speaking - Uzbeks and Tajiks), the West (Khazari), and the South
   (Pashto).

   (Yavlyanskiy) How is Russia to behave?

   (Iskuzhin) It must take an active stance and not be a detached observer -
   which is, in fact, what we are doing. We must uphold the work done at the
   G8 summit in Deauville, France, within the framework of the antinarcotics
   coalition - that is, demand that the West fulfill its promises to stop
   drug trafficking. A delegation of Afghan parliamentarians will come to us
   before the end of the month. They are coming to discuss specific issues -
   the future of the air ba ses and questions of countering terrorism.

   (Description of Source: Moscow Izvestiya Online (Moscow Edition) in
   Russian -- Website of Moscow Edition of large-circulation daily that is
   majority-owned by Yuriy Kovalchuk's National Media Group and usually
   supports the Kremlin; URL: http://izvestia.ru/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   22) Back to Top
   USA Will Not Let Allies Flee From Afghanistan - Russian Envoy To NATO -
   RIA-Novosti
   Thursday June 23, 2011 11:53:33 GMT
   Brussels, 23 June: The USA will not let its European allies in NATO to
   "hurriedly flee" from Afghanistan, Russian permanent representative at
   NATO Dmitriy Rogozin believes.

   He commented at RIA Novosti's request on the US president's decision to
   gradually withdraw the US military from Afghanistan.

   "The pullout of NATO's forces from Afghanistan will be effected in
   according with the principle 'we came together, we leave together', which
   means that the Americans will try to avoid the hurried fleeing of its
   European allies," Rogozin said.

   (Passage omitted: brief agency summary of US President Obama's
   announcement)

   (Description of Source: Moscow RIA-Novosti in Russian -- Government
   information agency, part of the state media holding company; located at
   www.rian.ru)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   23) Back to Top
   Al-Jazirah, Al-Arabiyah Sites: Readers See US Pullout From Afghanistan
   'Defeat' - Middle East -- OSC Summary
   Thursday June 23, 2011 11:51:30 GMT
   "Sadat" from Pakistan wrote: "The announcement of US withdrawal is a
   declaration of defeat. Congratulations to the hero Afghan mujahidin who
   continued the struggle and forced the occupation to withdraw."

   "Muhammad" from Jeddah wrote: "Who will try America for its crimes in
   Afghanistan? If the war was waged against guiltless Afghan people for the
   sake of 3000 Americans, what about the 800,000 (killed or wounded)
   Afghans?"

   "Dr Umar" from Saudi Arabia wrote: "This is the beginning of America's
   end. The collapse of its world power and influence, its defeat in the face
   of Taliban in Afghanistan, and the Arab revolutions signal t he beginning
   of the emerge of the power of Islam... God is great."

   "Samir" wrote: "The US Administration and its soldiers killed many
   civilians and innocent people in its war on Afghanistan."

   A reader who did not identify himself wrote: "Defeated Obama ... America
   is the world's sick man, sick in every sense of the word."

   "Safi" wrote from Brazil: "America will try to avenge its crushing defeat
   through its agent rulers in the lands of Islam. Therefore, the lands
   should be cleansed and any contact with the enemy should be considered
   grave treachery and big crime that warrant suitable punishment."

   "Qaswarah al-Yamani" wrote: "Flagrant US failure in Afghanistan and the
   Arab world... we see Taliban's progress and the decline of the US
   influence, which did not learn from the Russian and British experiences
   that Afghanistan is the graveyard of invaders." Al-Arabiyah.net:

   "Bu-Midyan" wrote: Let Arabs learn from the Afghan tribes and Taliban how
   jihad for the sake of God should be carried out, regardless of the
   sacrifices and no matter how long it takes."

   "Egyptian Pharaoh" wrote: "A fact that cannot be denied... Afghanistan has
   never ever been defeated."

   "Suppressed Palestinian" wrote from the West Bank: "Praise to God and
   Taliban... we have been begging America and the West for negotiation with
   Israel for the past 50 years. Now, we see America and the West beg Taliban
   to negotiate."

   From Yemen "Abdallah al-Sanaydi" wrote: "Bush said in 2001 that he will
   never negotiate with Taliban, and now they are begging for
   negotiations.""Ahmad al-Yafi'I" wrote: "Thank God for the great victory.
   It was the Soviet Union in the past and now America and the NATO." He
   appealed to Taliban "to liberate" the Sunni Iranian region of Ahvaz from
   the Iranians.

   "Abu-Mus'ab al-Masri" addressed the United States writing: "You are now
   begging Taliban by all means to save your face, but they refuse with
   dignity and loftiness to even sit with you except after the full
   withdrawal."

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   24) Back to Top
   PRC Expects 'Stable' Security Power Transition in Afghanistan
   Updated version: rewording subject line for clarity, adding Urgent topic
   tags; Xinhua: "China Expects Steady Paced Security Power Transition in
   Afghanistan: FM Spokesman" - Xinhua
   Thursday June 23, 2011 11:34:02 GMT
   BEIJING, June 23 (Xinhua) -- China expects a peaceful and stable security
   power transition in Afghanistan, said a foreign ministry spokesman at a
   news briefing Thursday.

   Spokesman Hong Lei responded to U.S.President Barack Obama's White House
   Speech on Wednesday, in which Obama announced his plans for a drawdown of
   U.S. troops in Afghanistan.In his speech, Obama announced the drawdown of
   10,000 troops by the end of the year, with a possible 20,000 more next
   year.Obama said that by 2014, the process of transition will be complete,
   and the Afghan people will be responsible for their own security.China
   respects Afghanistan's independence and sovereignty, Hong said."China
   hopes that relevant parties will take responsibility in transferring
   security power to Afghanistan and help the country beef up its capability
   on security building so to ensure a peaceful and stable transition," he
   added.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's officia
   l news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   25) Back to Top
   Mediators Hope Parties in Karabakh Conflict Will Finalize Work on
   Settlement Principles - Interfax
   Thursday June 23, 2011 16:14:19 GMT
   principles

   MOSCOW. June 23 (Interfax) - The co-chairs of the Organization for
   Security and Cooperation in Europe's Minsk Group for settling the
   Nagorno-Karabakh conflict hope the main principles of settlement will have
   been negotiated at the upcoming summit in Kazan and become the backbone of
   a peace agreement."The co-chairs have c oncentrated at all levels on
   efforts to persuade the sides to finalize the work on this document (the
   Fundamental Principles of the Nagorno-Karabakh Settlement) at the upcoming
   summit in Kazan," a Kremlin source told Interfax.This was signaled to
   Azerbaijan and Armenia in a joint statement by Russian President Dmitry
   Medvedev and U.S. and French Presidents Barack Obama and Nicolas Sarkozy,
   adopted at the G8 summit in Deauville on May 26, 2011.Medvedev will meet
   with Azeri President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan in
   Kazan on June 24. The Azeri and Armenian presidents will arrive in Kazan
   on Medvedev's invitation.The sides' positions on disputable provisions of
   the draft Fundamental Principles were drawn much nearer at the previous
   summit in Sochi on March 5, he said.Russian mediation proceeded in strong
   coordination with the other co-chairs in the Minsk Group - the U.S. and
   France. "The joint statements by the Russian, American and French preside
   nts in L'Aquila in July 2009 and in Muskoka in June 2010, containing a
   significant part of the content of the Fundamental Principles, are an
   important result of the joint work in this format," the source said.Ahead
   of the current summit talks, the Russian, Azeri and Armenian foreign
   ministers met in Moscow and managed to draw their positions even closer on
   the key provisions of the Fundamental Principles, he said.sd eb(Our
   editorial staff can be reached at
   eng.editors@interfax.ru)Interfax-950040-AACIMBPE

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   26) Back to Top
   Russia and the EU
   "Russia And the Eu" -- Jordan Times Headline - Jordan Times Online
   Friday June 24, 2011 02:31:36 GMT
   (Jordan Times) - By Jonathan Power Can the growing meeting of the minds of
   presidents Barack Obama and Dmitri Medvedev, clearly on view recently,
   when Medvedev said he wanted Obama to be reelected, now be carried over
   into RussiaAEs relationship with Europe?

   In many ways, it is easier for the US to make a big peace with Russia than
   it is for Europe. There has never been any territorial issue between the
   two, whereas Russia has fought major wars with France, Britain, Sweden,
   Finland and Germany.

   Is it possible, 20 years after the fall of communism, for contemporary
   Europe to finally respond to Mikhail GorbachevAEs plea to build a
   ocommon European houseo?

   This is the European UnionAEs call. America will want to be privy to the
   content of the discussions, but Washington knows that in this case, what
   Europe decides it wants it cannot obstruct. Nor does it h ave any real
   reason to interfere.

   Is Russia a European or an Asian nation? It is a question that has been
   debated for 500 years at least. The 19th century Slavophil Nikolay
   Danilevskiy argued that Russia possesses an instinctive Slavic
   civilisation of its own - midway between Europe and Asia. Yet Dostoevsky,
   speaking at a meeting at the unveiling of a statute of poet Pushkin, said:
   oPeoples of Europe, they donAEt know how dear to us they are.o

   If this is the predominant mood among Russian intellectuals today, they
   still have to contend with the nationalism, and Slavism, of the rump
   Communist Party and those powerful voices in the army, and even the
   foreign ministry, who fear a loss of independence if Russia is swallowed
   up in a greater Europe.

   Seventy years of totalitarian communism, following the autocracy of the
   tsars, as Norman Davies writes in his monumental history of Europe,
   obuilt huge mental as well as physical curtains across Europeo.
   It was Churchill who called the Bolsheviks oa babooneryo steeped in the
   deadly traditions of Attila and Genghis Khan. Yet Lenin and his circle
   assumed that one day they would join up with revolutionaries in the
   advanced capitalist countries.

   The Comintern in the early 1920s discussed the idea of a United States of
   Europe. It wasnAEt the Bolsheviks, but Stalin, who pointed Russia
   eastwards.

   In todayAEs liberated Russia, the European heart beats fast. The roots go
   deep. Muscovy has been an integral part of Christendom since the 10th
   century. In the late imperial era, it was not just Dostoevsky and Pushkin
   who wrote in the European tradition, but also Lermontov, Tolstoy and
   Chekhov, giants, then, who the passage of time has not demoted. Russian
   music, so eminently of European pedigree, with Mussorgsky, Tchaikovsky and
   Rimsky-Korsakov, rivalled anything that came out of 19th century Germany,
   Austria and Italy. The Ballet Russes and the Stanislavsky Theatre Sc hool
   were the leaders in Europe. Even Stalin chose not to squash this
   inheritance, although he sought to control its legacy and energy in his
   own ruthless manner.

   Russia has now found that it has been able to fashion a common alliance
   with America - against terrorism, for nuclear disarmament, against nuclear
   proliferation in unstable countries and perhaps even a quiet,
   unprovocative containment of the growing might of China.

   The agenda with Europe is more demanding, but its rewards will be long
   lasting.

   If discussions on the future membership of Russia in the EU were to begin
   now, it would take at least 10 years, and probably 20, to reach the point
   of consummation. Russia still has too much corruption, misadministration
   and lacks democratisation, not to mention seriously inadequate legal
   institutions, for it to be a quick process. But, as with Turkey today, the
   carrot of future entry can prove to be a good stick for beating the system
   into shape.

   Europe itself has to decide how much it wants this. It has in its power
   the opportunity to anchor Russia firmly within Europe, to cut off for all
   time the Russian temptation to look inward and to downplay its respect for
   democracy and human rights.

   With Russia not a member of Europe, the Russian psyche is dangerously
   exposed, insecure, exiled from its natural centre of gravity and horribly
   free to roll around the deck like the proverbial loose cannon. Yet for
   some Europeans, there will be a price that goes beyond the usual debate on
   Airbus subsidies, agricultural policy and Greek debt. It is to give up the
   vision of a united federal Europe, under one parliament and one president.

   With Russia a member, clearly it could not work; Russia is just too big.
   Yet Europe would still gain more than it ever dared aspire to: a
   continent-wide union of its member states and the stabilisation of this
   great centre of civilisation that has spent too much of its history at war
   w ith itself, much more than any other part of the world. 24 June 2011
   (Description of Source: Amman Jordan Times Online in English -- Website of
   Jordan Times, only Jordanian English daily known for its investigative and
   analytical coverage of controversial domestic issues; sister publication
   of Al-Ra'y; URL: http://www.jordantimes.com/) Material in the World News
   Connection is generally copyrighted by the source cited. Permission for
   use must be obtained from the copyright holder. Inquiries regarding use
   may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.

   27) Back to Top
   Czech Commentary Argues German Pressure Reduces Probability of Nuclear
   Project
   Commentary by Michal Snobr, analyst with J&amp;amp;T: "Will CEZ Ever Complete
   Temelin?" - Hospodarske Noviny Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 15:05:58 GMT
   In contrast to Mr. Martin Roman, I do not think that there is any real
   threat now of the closure of Temelin or Dukovany (nuclear power plants) --
   regardless of whatever kind of pressure Germany along with Austria exert
   against the completion of (Temelin) over the next few years.

   However, what I am sure of is that the probability of the completion of
   Temelin never occurring is rising very substantially. Just like Martin
   Roman, I presume that on this matter the Czech Republic is going to face
   unprecedented pressure from Austria and Germany, and I am also sure that
   sooner or later a certain part of Czech political circles and publicly
   respected figures (I do not have in mind by this already convinced
   opponents) will "sell out" to these interests. Just as was the case before
   the launch of Temelin almost 10 years ago.

   In energy policy in particular the EU is becoming more and more a German
   union than anything else, and we know fro m the last few years that the
   Czech Republic alone is not capable of getting hardly anything accepted
   within the EU (in particular against the interests of its strong
   neighbor). Against the interests of Germany, fanatically supported
   primarily by Upper Austria, this is going to be almost impossible. From
   the economic point of view, and also from the point of view of the "green"
   view of the world of energy policy in Germany and the steps that Germany
   is taking in this direction now without regard for the rest of the members
   of the EU, it is hard to envisage that it would accept new nuclear blocs
   at Temelin.

   The only ray of hope in this sense remains Poland. If this large European
   country does not give up its intention to build the first nuclear power
   plant on its territory, then we are going to have a strong ally, which has
   already succeeded, in spite of Germany, in pushing through quite a few
   things in the energy field, for instance on CO2 emissions permi ts in the
   period 2013 to 2020.

   In connection with the statement (by Roman) cited above I would like to
   mention one more important thing. It is evident that, thanks to the
   potential completion of Temelin, Czech politicians are enjoying to the
   full extent "world" favor.

   From time to time a variety of representatives from the United States,
   France, and Russia, representing the interests of firms from their
   countries, have the need to speak with Czech politicians about this
   matter, and some of these Czech politicians have already succumbed to a
   certainly illusion of their own importance.

   I continue to hope that the CEZ management will not succumb to this and
   that, in view of the great expense of financing the construction of a
   nuclear power plant, the overall length of its realization (quite
   certainly this will exceed 10 years) and all the possible risks connected
   with such an investment, the CEZ management will require -- before any
   start to the completion of Temelin -- certain guarantees, not only from
   potential suppliers of technology, but also from the state, which by a
   political decision can at any time in the future mar CEZ's enormous
   investment in nuclear energy.

   The worst possible variant of the development would be a part-built
   nuclear power station, in which tens of hundreds of billions would be
   invested through CEZ and which would then be "politically" closed even
   before completion. In view of the enormous opposition from Germany and
   Austria, which are doubtlessly going to increase, this is not an
   unrealistic variant.

   The Germans are quite certainly going to have the strength to do this over
   10 years and this is extremely dangerous. Before the actual start of
   investment the CEZ management, just like Czech politicians, should
   "measure three times and only after that take action." It is not only the
   choice of nuclear technology that is a risk; a much greater risk is const
   ituted by current events in Germany. Unfortunately, in our region a German
   energy union is a reality and Czech politicians should also realistically
   consider their options of standing up to German interests before any
   shareholders' decision on Temelin is made.

   In advance I will say that to rely, for instance, on France would be a
   great error. In the interest of political compromises in the EU nothing
   can be ruled out -- not even that we will be thrown overboard. It is
   enough to look at the trend of public opinion on nuclear energy in France.

   (Description of Source: Prague Hospodarske Noviny Online in Czech --
   Website of influential independent political, economic, and business daily
   widely read by decision makers, opinion leaders, and college-educated
   population; URL: http://hn.ihned.cz)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   28) Back to Top
   Indonesian Economic Press 17 Jun 11
   To request additional processing, contact the OSC Customer Center at (800)
   205-8615 or OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Indonesia -- OSC Summary
   Thursday June 23, 2011 10:49:10 GMT
   2. Report by Bambang P Jatmiko entitled "2010-2014 Debt 55% Spent." The
   government recorded that long-term loan spending for 2010-2014 has reached
   55% of the total commitment received, as much as US$ 15 billion. (p.2, 400
   words)

   3. Unattributed report entitled "Foreign Capital Inflow Needs Tighter
   Selection." The government was called for a tighter selection on capital
   inflow so that economic growth could be equally distributed. (p.2, 500
   words)

   4. Report Rudi Ariffianto entitled "Large Companies Enjoy United States'
   Footwear Market." Opportunity in the footwear market of the United States
   is leaving Chinese products and is predicted to only be enjoyed by large,
   national companies. (p.8, 250 words)

   5. Report by Rudi Ariffianto entitled "South Korean Company To Produce
   Controlling System." South Korea's communication and information company
   is rumored to immediately invest in the production of information
   technology equipment, including control systems. (p.8, 300 words)

   6. Report by MGM entitled "Thailand Holds Expo in Jakarta." The 2011
   Thailand Trade Show at the Jakarta Convention Center promoted a variety of
   Thailand's top products. (p.26, 75 words)

   7. Interview with Arshad Chaudhry, CEO of PT Nestle Indonesia, by Alggoth
   Putranto entitled "We Hope To Increase Milk Purchasing." PT Nestle
   Indonesia is committed to the reduction of imported milk and an increase
   in the purchase o f local milk to support its production line. (p.26, 550
   words) (Jakarta Investor Daily in Indonesian -- Business daily focuses on
   capital markets. First published in June 2001 as Investor Indonesia, it is
   now fully owned by the Lippo Group. Estimated circulation: 50,000.)
   Investor Daily in Indonesian (17/06/2011)

   1. Report by Januari Mahardika and Listyorini entitled "Greece Crisis
   Triggers Capital Inflow." It is believed that the Indonesian stock market
   will not to crash despite worries about the Greece debt crisis. On the
   other hand, the crisis will support capital inflow because Indonesia's
   debt rating is increasing and will soon achieve investment grade. (p. 1,
   2, 1150 words)

   2. Report by Primus Dorimulu and Rizagana entitled "East Nusa Tenggara
   Ready To Replace Australia." The province of East Nusa Tenggara is ready
   to supply cows for the domestic demand, replacing Australia. (p. 1, 2,
   1250 words)

   3. Commentary by Ryan Kiryant o, chief economist of Bank Negara Indonesia,
   entitled "Maintaining Low Inflation in June and July." Despite the
   prediction of deflation of almost all food commodities, an increase in
   rice prices will cause inflation pressure in June and July. (p. 4, 800
   words)

   4. Report by Damaina N Simanjuntak entitled "Expensive Chinese Footwear,
   United States Goes to Indonesia." Opportunity in the footwear market of
   the United States is leaving Chinese products and is predicted to only be
   enjoyed by large, national companies. (p. 8, 400 words)

   5. Report by EME entitled "South Korea To Build ICT Factory in Indonesia."
   It is rumored that South Korea's communication and information company is
   to immediately invest in the production of information technology
   equipment, including control systems. (p. 8, 150 words)

   6. Report by Dihar Dakir and Heriyono entitled "Foreign Mining Contracts
   Renegotiated This Year." The government will renegotiate mining contracts
   this year to restructure regulations related to royalties and foreign
   mining company contracts. (p.9, 500 words)

   7. Report by Imam Mudzakir entitled "US$ 300 Million China's Loan for
   Solo-Kertosono Highway." The Ministry of Public Works will soon search for
   new funding for the development of the 179-kilometer Solo-Ngawi-Kertosono
   Highway by proposing a loan to China as much as US$ 300 million. (p.10,
   675 words)

   8. Report by Dihar Dakir and Heriyono entitled "Wika and Moya Holding
   Becomes Nusantara's Partners." PT Nusantara Infrastructure Tbk (META)
   forms a consortium with PT Wijaya Karya Tbk (WIKA) and Bahrain's Moya
   Holding Company to invest in Rp. 1.8 trillion drinking water processing
   project in Umbulan, Pasuruan, East Java. (p.14, 325 words)

   9. Report by Wahyu Sudoyo entitled "2012 Budget Deficit Set at 1.4%-1.9%."
   The government's meeting with parliament sets the deficit in the 2012 Dra
   ft Budget at 1.4%-1.9%. (p.20, 475 words)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   29) Back to Top
   UK Arabic Press 23 Jun 11
   The following lists selected items from the UK Arabic Press on 23 Jun 11.
   To request additional processing, contact the OSC Customer Center at (800)
   205-8615 or OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - United Kingdom -- OSC Summary
   Thursday June 23, 2011 10:11:28 GMT
   1. Interview with Abdol Salam Zaeef, the former Taliban ambassador to
   Pakistan, denying reports of Taliban-US talks in Germany and talking about
   political developments, saying reconciliation council was born dead and no
   solut ion without departure of foreign forces. (4,000 words, processing)

   2. Article by Hassan Haydar pointing out that Syria's Ba'th Party and
   Lebanon's Hizballah are of the same ideological mold and both striving to
   rule with force. (600 words, processing)

   3. Article by Abd-al-Wahhab Badrakhan praising Moroccan king's
   announcement of political reforms calling them a promising start of reform
   in the country. (1,000 words, processing)

   London Al-Sharq al-Awsat Online in Arabic 23 Jun 11 (Website of
   influential London-based pan-Arab Saudi daily; editorial line reflects
   Saudi official stance. URL:

   http://www.asharqalawsat.com/ http://www.asharqalawsat.com/)

   1. Report on statement by Libyan Transitional National Council spokesman
   saying he does not expect Al-Qadhafi to last more than three weeks and
   revolutionaries determined to fight until victory. (800 words, processing)

   2. Interview with Syrian oppositionist Burhan Ghalyun, political sc ience
   teacher at the Sorbonne, saying Syrian people reject foreign intervention
   and stressing that Russia wants a price from the West for supporting the
   Syrian revolution. (1,800 words, no processing planned)

   3. Report saying Salafists in Lebanon's city of Tripoli are preparing for
   massive demonstration on Friday in support of the Syrian people against
   their regime. (700 words, no processing planned)

   4. Report on statements by experts in Islamic groups' affairs saying
   Libyan, Syrian, and Yemeni leaders are using Al-Qa'ida to justify their
   peoples' revolutions but this does not negate the presence of sleeping
   Al-Qa'ida cells in their countries. (600 words, processing)

   5. Interview with Sudanese president's adviser Mustafa Uthman on Sudan's
   stands toward Arab revolutions and expected developments in the country
   following the secession of the south. (3,000 words, processing)

   6. Report on statement by POLISARIO dissident Moustapha Ould Sidi Maoulo
   ud welcoming inclusion of Hassaniya culture in amended Moroccan
   constitution. (600 words, processing)

   7. Interview with Muhammad Abu-al-Ghar, founder and agent of the Egyptian
   Democratic Social Party, on dangers facing Egyptian revolution, party's
   principles, his opinion of main presidential candidates Musa and
   ElBaradei. (3,000 words, processing)

   8. Report on Iraqi political parties' division over issue of US forces
   remaining after 2011 and apprehensions caused by the Iranian ambassador's
   statements re taliating to any American attack on Iran launched from Iraq.
   (800 words, processing)

   9. Article by Chief Editor Tariq al-Humayd calling clipping Iran's wings
   in Iraq and Syria without war. (500 words, processing)

   10. Report on proliferation of media outlets after the revolution in
   Tunisia and their varied qualities. (700 words, processing)

   London Al-Quds al-Arabi Online in Arabic 23 Jun 11 (Website of
   London-based independent Arab natio nalist daily with strong anti-US bias.
   URL:

   http://www.alquds.co.uk/ http://www.alquds.co.uk/)

   1. Report on statement by Fatah movement's spokesman on Abbas' talks with
   Turkish officials that included issue of Palestinian reconciliation and
   delay of forming government and denying that this dossier has been taken
   from Egypt's hands. (800 words, processing)

   2. Editorial expressing hope that Turkish mediation between Palestinian
   President Abbas and Fatah on one side and HAMAS on the other will succeed
   in removing the obstacle to implementation of their reconciliation
   agreement and the formation of government. (500 words, no processing
   planned)

   3. Article by Chief Editor Abd-al-Bari Atwan commenting on NATO's strikes
   killing civilians in Tripoli and areas under Al-Qadhafi's control and
   demanding "a stop to shedding the blood of children and unarmed civilians
   as quickly as possible through a total ceasefire by all parties and by
   searching for political solutions to this bloody civil war that lead to a
   democratic state where justice, equality, and rule of the law prevail and
   prevent the partitioning and fragmentation of the country." (1,000 words,
   no processing planned)

   London Ilaf.com in Arabic 23 Jun 11 (Saudi-owned, independent Internet
   daily with pan-Arab, liberal line. URL:

   http://www.elaph.com/ http://www.elaph.com/)

   1. Report citing Yemeni sources on talks that US envoy Jeffrey Feltman had
   with Yemeni officials and the message he conveyed from Secretary Clinton
   to Yemeni President Ali Salih's son. (900 words, processing)

   2. Report on lecture by Libyan Transitional Council's Spokesman Mahmud
   Shammam in Beirut in which he talked about the fighting against
   Al-Qadhafi's regime, the revolutionaries' military resources,
   determination to continue to fight even if NATO left, and Al-Qadhafi's
   kidnapping of Lebanese Shiite cleric Musa al-Sadr. (1,400 words, no
   processing planned)
   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   30) Back to Top
   Czech Republic Press 23 Jun 11
   The following lists selected items from the Czech Republic press on 23
   Jun. To request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735. - Czech Republic -- OSC Summary
   Thursday June 23, 2011 10:39:56 GMT
   1. Czech Republic returns subsidy for road construction project to EU
   because of corruption suspicions, profile of Vienna-based university
   professor Firbas who drew attention to suspected corruption (pp 1, 2; 400,
   1,800 and 650 words)

   2. Report reviews attempts b y Czech authorities to acquire details from
   UK authorities of alleged corruption in Gripen fighter-jet deal (p 5; 900
   words)

   3. Commentary by Jiri Hosek of Czech Radio criticizes German "maneuvering"
   over Greek debt crisis, argues Germany is likely to take general blame for
   euro crisis "most probably rightly so" (p 10; 800 words)

   4. Milan Slezak commentary on Obama's policy on Afghanistan (p 11; 800
   words; processing)

   5. Daniel Anyz commentary on Obama's policy on Afghanistan, Libya (p 11;
   900 words ; processing)

   Prague Pravo in Czech -- independent, center-left daily with good access
   to social democratic policy makers; known as the best-informed daily; has
   a loyal leftist readership base that is usually 50 years or older and less
   affluent; the only national center-left daily.

   1. Report on divisions in governing coalition over plan to extend powers
   of Supreme Audit Office to state-owned companies, TOP 09 proposes idea,
   some ODS MPs are opposed (p 2; 600 words)

   2. Interview with Czech TV business director Kvapil on plans to limit
   advertising on public-service broadcaster (p 5; 800 words)

   3. Jan Keller commentary criticizes supposed government plan to hire PR
   experts to propagate reforms, argues money spent on promoting planned US
   radar was "thrown away" (p 6; 650 words)

   4. Josef Koukal commentary expresses skepticism toward Police assertion
   that investigation of suspected corruption by former ODS Minister Drobil
   was halted on oral instruction of state attorney, criticizes criminal
   investigation procedure (p 6; 700 words)

   Prague Lidove Noviny in Czech -- independent, center-right daily with
   samizdat roots; has relatively well-educated readership base but no
   discernible target audience.

   1. Report on former police, army officers who have taken up private sector
   employment, former Police Officer Laska expresses skepticism about ability
   of authorities to ensure former officers do not make use of their inside
   knowledge for benefit of private employers (pp 1, 2; 600, 900 and 500
   words)

   2. Martin Weiss commentary on Greek bailout argues "no-one believes" it
   will prevent Greek bankruptcy, views plan as "waste of money, ritual
   humiliation of Greeks," contends German minister's idea of Greece
   exporting solar energy to Germany is "nonsense" (p 10; 500 words)

   3. Commentary by Petr Kambersky criticizes Finance Ministry for high level
   of tax pardons, argues Minister Kalousek has too much power concentrated
   in his hands (p 10; 400 words)

   4. Pavel Kalina commentary criticizes "wave of anti-Klaus materials that
   appeared in media over last week," praises Klaus for drawing attention to
   "key" problems concerning EU, environmentalism (p 11; 700 words)

   5. Commentary by VV Chair John criticizes CSSD's Sobotka for "bad memory"
   conc erning past mistakes made by CSSD (p 11; 600 words)

   Prague Mlada Fronta Dnes in Czech -- best-selling, independent, centrist
   daily; has a wide readership base and its commentary pages often feature
   both sides of the political spectrum; most popular print source among
   decision makers, who utilize the paper for publicizing their positions on
   key issues.

   1. Pavel Novotny comme ntary on Afghanistan (p A10; 850 words; processing)

   2. Report on Cuban exiles living in Czech Republic (p A12; 2,500 words)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   31) Back to Top
   US troops withdrawal may cause new problems in Afghanistan - Russian MP
   Corrected version: Correcting time from 0600 to 0700 GMT - Ekho Moskvy
   Radio
   Thursday June 23, 2011 10:21:34 GMT
   Klintsevich told Ekho Moskvy: "The Americans let this genie out (of the
   bottle) back in 1979. There is no doubt that this centre of terrorism
   (Afghanistan) stopped existing when troops were brought in. No matter who
   sends their troops there, they will have to withdraw them and withdraw
   them with shame, without having completed their task.

   "When Soviet troops were there, there were three plants producing drugs
   used in medicine. Under the Taleban, there was one. Whereas now, under the
   Americans, there are over 1,600 plants producing drugs, 50 per cent of
   which end up on the territory of the former Soviet Union.

   "The Americans do not understand one thing - that since 1978 two
   generations of people there (in Afghanistan) have grown up on war, people
   who cannot do anything but being at war for money. The second part of the
   population have grown up on narcotics, on fast money."

   The radio station quoted Klintsevich as saying that leading militants
   operating in the Russian North Caucasus had been trained in Afghanistan.

   An Ekho Moskvy news agency report earlier on the same day further quoted
   Klintsevich as saying: "I have no doubt that the Taleban will rise again
   and will oust Karzai's government." He went on to add that after US troops
   withdrawal from Afghanistan the country "would become a centre of
   international terrorism and drug trade" and soon "the international
   community would again have to think of how to fight that evil".

   (Description of Source: Moscow Ekho Moskvy Radio in Russian -- influential
   station known for its news coverage and interviews of politicians; now
   owned by Gazprom but largely retains its independence)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the sour
   ce cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder.
   Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.

   32) Back to Top
   Article Says India's 'Duplicity' Making Talks With Pakistan 'Fruitless'
   Article by Sajjad Shaukat: "Fruitless Dialogue With India" - The Frontier
   Post Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 09:57:18 GMT
   (Description of Source: Peshawar The Frontier Post Online in English --
   Website of a daily providing good coverage of the Northwest Frontier
   Province, Afghanistan, and narcotics issues; URL:
   http://www.thefrontierpost.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   33) Back to Top
   Afghan Defence Ministry welcomes Obama's troops withdrawal plan - Afghan
   Islamic Press
   Thursday June 23, 2011 09:57:21 GMT
   Kabul, 23 June: The Afghan Ministry of National Defence welcomes Obama's
   announcement.

   The Ministry of National Defence welcomed US President Barack Hussein
   Obama's announcement to withdraw 33,000 US troops from Afghanistan.

   A National Defence Ministry press statement, quoting the ministry
   spokesman, Gen Zaher Azimi, says that in a show of respect to the decision
   of the American people and the American government, they welcome President
   Obama's announcement of withdrawing troops from Afghanistan.

   Gen Azimi said: "We congratulate these troops for returning back to their
   country. We, in the meantime , appreciate their sacrifices. The people of
   Afghanistan will never forget America's assistance in the areas of
   maintaining security, as well as equipping and training the Afghan army."

   Gen Azimi added that given the quality and quantity of the Afghan National
   Army (ANA), they are prepared to fill their space.

   According to him, there is no concern regarding security situation and
   planned operations after the withdrawal of these troops.

   He expressed the hope that based on the security transition plans, the
   remaining troops would also return back to their homes.

   The National Defence Ministry spokesman said that the Afghan National Army
   needed to be fully trained, strengthened and equipped before the end of
   2014 when they will handle country's overall security responsibility.

   President Barack Obama has announced to begin the withdrawal of the US
   forces from Afghanistan by this July, adding around 10,000 US troops would
   leave the country b y the end of this year while another 23,000 soldiers
   would leave Afghanistan by September 2012.

   The Taleban called this a symbolic step. In a statement, they said the
   solution of Afghanistan's crisis lied in immediate and full withdrawal of
   foreign forces from Afghanistan, otherwise fighting in Afghanistan would
   continue.

   (Description of Source: Peshawar Afghan Islamic Press in Pashto --
   Peshawar-based agency, staffed by Afghans, that describes itself as an
   independent "news agency" but whose history and reporting pattern reveal a
   perceptible pro-Taliban bias; the AIP's founder-director, Mohammad Yaqub
   Sharafat, has long been associated with a mujahidin faction that merged
   with the Taliban's "Islamic Emirate" led by Mullah Omar; subscription
   required to access content; http://www.afghanislamicpress.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copy right
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   34) Back to Top
   Xinhua 'Feature': Afghans in Hopes, Concerns as US Forces To Draw Down in
   Jul
   Xinhua "Feature": "War-Weary Afghans in Hopes, Concerns as U.S. Forces To
   Draw Down in July" - Xinhua
   Thursday June 23, 2011 09:22:41 GMT
   (Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news
   service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   35) Back to Top
   Imran Khan Says US Talks With Taliban Affirm Party's Old Stance
   Report by staff reporter: "Imran Khan Offers Mediation for US-Taliban
   Talks" - Nawa-e Waqt
   Thursday June 23, 2011 09:47:05 GMT
   Today in his statement released from the central media cell of his party,
   Khan said that seven years ago PTI had held talks the resolution of the
   issue instead of war. Today our prediction has proved accurate that war
   offers nothing but devastation and destruction.

   Khan says that the continuity of the military action in tribal areas of
   Pakistan further fanned the violence and terrorism and resultantly
   thousands of people had to undergo immense difficulties.

   Imran Khan said that lawlessness is ruling the country because the police
   and other security agencies are appointed to protect the VIPs.

   Imran Khan said that as a result of the military operation, the enemy
   grabbed an opportunity to call Pakistan a failed state. At these very
   foundations, a handful of ill-wishing elements inside and outside the
   country are engaged in defiling the army and intelligence agencies for the
   sake of their heinous interests.

   The integrity of the country may face further serious threats if the
   incumbent government continues to remain in power.

   (Description of Source: Rawalpindi Nawa-e Waqt in Urdu -- Privately owned,
   widely read, conservative Islamic daily, with circulation around 125,000.
   Harshly critical of the US and India.)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   36) Back to Top
   Iran's Press TV leads with US-related sto ries on 23 June - Press TV
   Thursday June 23, 2011 09:44:01 GMT
   Press TV quoted the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) as warning that
   "an explosion of public borrowing could put debt levels on a par with the
   nation's GDP by 2021". The CBO said the federal debt would reach 70 per
   cent of GDP by the end of the year, the TV said.

   US President Barack Obama said that 33,000 troops to be withdrawn from
   Afghanistan by summer 2013, the TV said. "The decision follows increasing
   public pressure on the president to bring the war to an end. But despite
   the drawdown the US military is believed to be preparing for a long-term
   presence in Afghanistan. It has established permanent bases across the
   country and has carried out secret construction plans to expand these
   bases. There are also reports that Washington is twisting the Afghan
   government's arms into agreeing to a long-ter m American military presence
   in the country," the TV said.

   Brent Budowsky, columnist of the Washington-based The Hill magazine, told
   the TV that the number of troops to be withdrawn was not the main thing
   the Americans "hoped". "The great outcome we were hoped, hopefully sooner
   rather than later, is a negotiated solution, a cease-fire, and an end to
   the killing, and an end to all money that we're wasting, and an end to the
   misery of the people of Afghanistan," Budowsky told Press TV.

   The TV reported a rally held outside the US Justice Department, demanding
   the closure of the Guantanamo Bay prison. "The American prison camp in
   Guantanamo Bay remains open despite President Barack Obama's promise that
   it will be closed," the TV said.

   The TV went on to say that eight senior opposition leaders in Bahrain had
   been sentenced to life in prison and 13 other opposition activists
   received prison terms up to 15 years. The convicted were charged with
   attempts to overthrow the country's ruling dynasty and threatening public
   security by organizing protests. The TV said that a rally was held to
   protest against the court ruling, but the protesters "were attacked by
   Saudi-backed regime forces". "It remains to be seem whether the verdicts
   will leave any room for the government's proposed dialogue with the
   opposition," the TV said.

   Press TV said that rallies had been held in several cities in Yemen to
   demand the formation of a transitional council. It also said that Libya's
   ruler Muammar Qadhafi said in an audio message that war in the country
   would continue until Day of Judgment.

   (Description of Source: Tehran Press TV in English -- 24-hour
   English-language news channel of Iranian state-run television, officially
   controlled by the office of the supreme leader)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must b e obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   37) Back to Top
   Afghan Taleban describe Obama's troops withdrawal announcement symbolic -
   Afghan Islamic Press
   Thursday June 23, 2011 09:29:54 GMT
   Kandahar, 23 June: The Taleban have called as symbolic the announcement of
   the withdrawal of the US forces form Afghanistan. The Islamic Emirate of
   Afghanistan, in its harsh reaction, has called as symbolic the
   announcement of President Barack Obama to withdraw some 33,000 US troops
   from Afghanistan. In a statement, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan said
   on Thursday (23 June): "The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan considers this
   announcement, which currently withdraws 10,000 soldiers this year, only as
   a symbolic step which wi ll never satisfy the war-weary international
   community or the American people."

   The Taleban statement added: "This announcement has been made at a time
   when the Americans have forced the Kabul administration to sign a document
   called the strategic cooperation agreement in order to have their
   permanent military bases in Afghanistan. In the meantime, the occupying US
   forces have continued killing the vulnerable Afghans in various parts of
   the country."

   The Taleban have once again said that the solution to the Afghan crisis
   lies in the full withdrawal of all foreign troops immediately. They said:
   "Until that happens, our armed jihad and resistance will increase day to
   day which will result in a shameful defeat of the invading forces"

   Afghan Islamic Press, based on its editorial policy and the importance of
   the statement, publishes the statement verbatim:

   The statement by the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan on the announcement of
   the withdrawal of a limited number of US troops from Afghanistan by Obama

   The US President Barack Obama, who has been giving false hopes to the
   American nation for the last one and a half years regarding the withdrawal
   of the US forces from Afghanistan's exhausting mission, has finally
   announced to withdraw some 10,000 US troops from the country by the end of
   this year.

   The president has made the announcement of withdrawing some 10,000 troops
   by the end of this year at a time when the level of the American nation's
   hatred for the Afghan war has reached its climax. Based on the recent
   public opinion polls in America, majority of the Americans want an
   immediate end to the occupation of Afghanistan and ask for the immediate
   full withdrawal of their troops from the aimless war of Afghanistan.

   The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan considers this announcement, which
   currently withdraws 10,000 soldiers this year, only as a symbolic step
   which will never satisfy the war-weary international community or the
   American people.

   This is because this announcement has been made at a time when the
   Americans have simultaneously forced the servant Kabul administration to
   sign a document called strategic cooperation agreement in order to build
   their permanent bases in Afghanistan. In the meantime, the occupying US
   forces have continued killing and oppressing vulnerable Afghans in various
   parts of the country.

   Obama and his war-supporting supporters are making this announcement only
   to mislead their people who had repeatedly asked for the withdrawal of
   their troops from Afghanistan. But in fact, they never respect their
   nation's requests and have no willing to put an end to Afghanistan war and
   occupying this country. They also never fulfil the pledges they made. We
   cannot value Obama's remarks who said that they would train Afghan army
   and police because on the one hand their trained forces failed in their
   tests and on other hand they (Afghan army and police) are considered by
   the Afghans as the American's servants and the enemies of their country
   and religion. In addition, the so-called army and police, most of whom are
   drug-addicts and the worst people of the society because they lack ethics,
   have gathered for corruption. They perform their duty only to commit
   corruption. They can neither fulfil the demands of the Afghans nor the
   Pentagon or CIA officials.

   The ordinary people of America must understand that their politicians and
   military leaders still want to continue the game they have started for the
   last few years. They are repeatedly giving false hopes to their nation
   about ending this war and claiming baselessly about victory. But in fact,
   by giving such false hopes, they try to prolong the Afghanistan war. We
   would like to make it clear that the claims made by Obama regarding their
   so-called victory in Afghanistan are completely baseless and inappropriate
   propaganda. They have neither made any considerable achievement in the
   battle ground nor can they present any evidence showing their victory. The
   increase of the US forces since the last year has only caused to increase
   their fatalities. In the meantime, Afghanistan's enemy's brutal
   bombardment of the villages, killing innocent people and destroying
   people's houses and green fields can never represent their victory in
   Afghanistan.

   The ordinary people of America who now understand most of the realities of
   the Afghanistan war should take serious steps in preventing aimless
   bloodshed in Afghanistan. The American tax payers must understand that
   during the last 10 years, their money was either spent on an aimless war
   in Afghanistan or it went to the pockets of a limited number of corrupt
   officials of the Kabul administration. They must take an action about this
   situation today or it would be too difficult to deal with the situation
   tomorrow.

   The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan once again declares that the only
   solution to Afghanistan crisis lies in the immediate full withdrawal of
   foreign forces from Afghanistan. Until that happens, the armed struggle
   will increase from day to day and hatred against the occupation forces
   would gain strength in Afghanistan, region, America and the entire world.
   And consequently the occupying forces would face with a shameful defeat,
   God willing.

   The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, 23/06/2011.

   (Description of Source: Peshawar Afghan Islamic Press in Pashto --
   Peshawar-based agency, staffed by Afghans, that describes itself as an
   independent "news agency" but whose history and reporting pattern reveal a
   perceptible pro-Taliban bias; the AIP's founder-director, Mohammad Yaqub
   Sharafat, has long been associated with a mujahidin faction that merged
   with the Taliban's "Islamic Emirate" led by Mullah Omar; subscription
   required to access content; http://www.afghanislamicpress.com)

   Material in the Wor ld News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   38) Back to Top
   Afghan Taleban say US troops withdrawal plan symbolic announcement -
   Afghan Islamic Press
   Thursday June 23, 2011 09:29:54 GMT
   Kandahar, 23 June: The Taleban have called as symbolic the announcement of
   the withdrawal of the US forces form Afghanistan. The Islamic Emirate of
   Afghanistan, in its harsh reaction, has called as symbolic the
   announcement of President Barack Obama to withdraw 33,000 US troops from
   Afghanistan. In a statement, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan said on
   Thursday (23 June): "The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan considers this
   announcement, which currently withdraws 10,000 soldiers this year, just a
   symbolic step which will never satisfy the war-weary international
   community or the American people."

   The Taleban statement added: "This announcement has been made at a time
   when the Americans have forced the Kabul administration to sign a document
   called a strategic cooperation agreement in order to have their permanent
   military bases in Afghanistan. In the meantime, the occupying US forces
   have continued killing the vulnerable Afghans in various parts of the
   country."

   The Taleban have once again said that the solution to the Afghan crisis is
   in the full withdrawal of all foreign troops immediately. They said:
   "Until that happens, our armed jihad and resistance will increase from day
   to day which will result in a shameful defeat of the invading forces."

   Afghan Islamic Press, based on its publication policy and the importance
   of the statement, releases it verbatim:

   The statement by the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan on the announcement of
   the withdrawal of a limited number of US troops from Afghanistan by Obama.

   The US President Barack Obama, who has been giving false hopes to the
   American nation for the last one and a half years regarding the withdrawal
   of the US forces from Afghanistan's exhausting mission, has finally
   announced to withdraw some 10,000 US troops from the country by the end of
   this year.

   The president has made the announcement of withdrawing some 10,000 troops
   by the end of this year at a time when the level of the American nation's
   hatred for the Afghan war has reached its climax. Based on the recent
   public opinion polls in America, majority of the Americans want an
   immediate end to the occupation of Afghanistan and ask for the immediate
   complete withdrawal of their troops from the aimless war of Afghanistan.

   The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan considers this announcement, which
   currently withdraws 1 0,000 soldiers this year, just a symbolic step which
   will never satisfy the war-weary international community or the American
   people.

   This is because this announcement has been made at a time when the
   Americans have simultaneously forced the servant Kabul administration to
   sign a document called strategic cooperation agreement in order to build
   their permanent bases in Afghanistan. In the meantime, the occupying US
   forces have continued killing and teasing vulnerable Afghans in various
   parts of the country.

   Obama and his war-supporting fellows are making this announcement only to
   mislead their people who had repeatedly asked for the withdrawal of their
   troops from Afghanistan. But in fact, they never respect their nation's
   requests and have no willing to put an end to Afghanistan war and
   occupying this country. They also never fulfil the pledges they made. We
   cannot value Obama's remarks who said that they would train Afghan army
   and police because, on the one hand, their trained forces failed in their
   tests and, on other hand, they (Afghan army and police) are considered by
   the Afghans as the American's servants and the enemies of their country
   and religion. In addition to this, the so-called army and police, most of
   whom are drug-addicts and the worst people of the society because they
   lack morality, have gathered for corruption. They perform their duty only
   to commit corruption. They can neither fulfil the demands of the Afghans
   nor Pentagon or CIA officials.

   The ordinary people of America must understand that their politicians and
   military leaders still want to continue the game they have started for the
   last few years. They are repeatedly giving false hopes to their nation
   about ending this war and claiming baselessly about victory. But in fact,
   by giving such false hopes, they try to prolong the Afghanistan war. We
   would like to make it clear that the claims made by Obama regarding their
   so-called victory in Afghanist an are completely baseless and
   inappropriate propaganda. They have neither made any considerable
   achievement in the battle ground nor can they present any evidence showing
   their victory. The increase of the US forces since the last year has only
   caused increase in their fatalities. In the meantime, Afghanistan's
   enemy's brutal bombardment of the villages, killing innocent people and
   destroying people's houses and green fields can never represent their
   victory in Afghanistan.

   The ordinary people of America who now understand most of the realities of
   the Afghanistan war should take serious steps in preventing aimless
   bloodshed in Afghanistan. The American tax payers must understand that
   during the last ten years, their money was either spent on an aimless war
   in Afghanistan or it went to the pockets of a limited number of corrupt
   officials of the Kabul administration. They must take an action about this
   situation today or it would be too difficult to deal with the situa tion
   tomorrow.

   The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan once again declares that the only
   solution to Afghanistan crisis is in the immediate complete withdrawal of
   foreign forces from Afghanistan. Until that happens, the armed struggle
   will increase from day to day and hatred against the occupation forces
   would gain strength in Afghanistan, region, America and the entire world.
   And consequently, the occupying forces would face a shameful defeat INSHA
   ALLAH (case as in the original).

   The Islamic Emirate of Taleban.

   (Description of Source: Peshawar Afghan Islamic Press in Pashto --
   Peshawar-based agency, staffed by Afghans, that describes itself as an
   independent "news agency" but whose history and reporting pattern reveal a
   perceptible pro-Taliban bias; the AIP's founder-director, Mohammad Yaqub
   Sharafat, has long been associated with a mujahidin faction that merged
   with the Taliban's "Islamic Emirate" led by Mullah Omar; subscription
   requir ed to access content; http://www.afghanislamicpress.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   39) Back to Top
   USA regards Afghanistan as base for attack against Iran - Russian observer
   - Ekho Moskvy News Agency
   Thursday June 23, 2011 08:45:53 GMT
   The main reason for the US leadership's decision is the 2012 presidential
   election, Litovkin said. In particular, Obama tries to show that in
   Afghanistan, "certain success has been achieved and now control over the
   situation in the republic's provinces may be handed over to the local
   authorities", he said. "However, as soon as Americans lea ve some areas of
   the country, Taleban, manifestly or not, seizes power there at once,"
   Litovkin said.

   According to him, the presence of American troops in Afghanistan has not
   significantly changed the lives of the local people and "has not turned
   them to democracy and freedom".

   "The fight of the USA and NATO against Taleban and Al-Qa'idah was quite
   successful: the number of terrorist attacks decreased, Usamah Bin-Ladin
   was killed, but Americans failed to fundamentally change anything in that
   country. There is no basis to develop industry in Afghanistan; poverty and
   illiteracy reign there," Litovkin said.

   (Description of Source: Moscow Ekho Moskvy News Agency in Russian -- News
   agency associated with the influential Ekho Moskvy Radio; controlled by
   Gazprom but largely retaining its independence)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the c opyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   40) Back to Top
   Editorial Critical of NATO Strikes on Residential Buildings in Libya
   Editorial: The NATO Victims in Libya - Al-Quds al-Arabi Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 08:07:53 GMT
   killing 15 people, including three children. The planes targeted what was
   termed as a military position where a close aide to Libyan Leader Mu'ammar
   al-Qadhafi resided.

   Western correspondents who visited a hospital where the bodies of the dead
   were taken said they saw nine bodies, including the bodies of two
   children, in addition to the remains of other bodies.

   NATO officially admitted that it fired missiles by mistake at a building
   four days ago killing nine people. To justify its action, NATO s aid that,
   as a result of failure in the missile firing system and program, a
   building other than the intended one was hit.

   It is obvious that, by targeting residential buildings, NATO seeks to
   assassinate and physically liquidate the Libyan leader. Obviously, NATO
   acts on information that it perhaps receives from some spies on the ground
   who monitor the Libyan leader's movements. But it is clear that all these
   assassination attempts have not been successful since the bombing of the
   Bab al-Aziziyah Base began. Bab al-Aziziyah is considered the headquarters
   of the Libyan leader's military and political command.

   UN Security Council Resolution 1973 does not provide for the assassination
   of the Libyan leader or for the overthrow of his ruling regime. However,
   the alliance states that are participating in the military operations in
   Libya, particularly Britain, France, and the United States, believe
   otherwise. These states interpret the clause that calls for the use o f
   all means to protect Libyan civilians as a mandate to strike Colonel
   Al-Qadhafi's centers and his forces' assembly points anywhere they may
   exist.

   Arab League Secretary General Amr Musa initially supported NATO forces'
   intervention in Libya to protect the civilians and set up no-fly zones,
   particularly over the Benghazi area, to prevent a massacre that the Libyan
   regime threatened to commit. He later said that when he supported the
   establishment of these no-fly zones to protect the Libyans, he did not
   give a green light to kill other Libyans. But he swallowed his words again
   and maintained complete silence after US and Western parties reprimanded
   him. Since then, he has not opened his mouth and has not spoken about the
   Libyan affair at all, as if Libya were located in Latin America.

   NATO leaders recently said that they would step up their military
   operations in Libya to put an end to the current military deadlocked
   situation. Therefore, they increased the num ber of Apache helicopters
   that participate in attacks on forces that are deployed inside cities.

   NATO spokespersons assert that they avoid killing civilians and focus only
   on bombing military sites. However, there is a great deal of misleading in
   this statement, as the raids killed more than 20 Libyan civilians in the
   City of Tripoli, including children, in less than three days.

   The view that NATO raids score accurate hits is a lie that has become
   evident in Afghanistan where no week passes without drones bombing
   civilian targets, killing many women and children, and even wiping out
   entire families to a point where Afghan President Hamid Karzai threatened
   several times to resign over these attacks. Karzai -- the closest ally of
   the United States who came to power on board US tanks after giant US B-52
   planes bombed the country -- warned a month ago that he will not keep
   silent toward the killing of his people.

   The people who are killed by NATO shells in T ripoli or anywhere else in
   Libya are martyrs with whom we sympathize and over the death of whom we
   grieve, just as we sympathize with and grieve over the victims of the
   Al-Qadhafi forces' shelling of the residents of Misratah, Al-Zawiyah, or
   Benghazi. All the people of Libya are Muslim Arabs who are, after all, our
   kinsfolk.

   (Description of Source: London Al-Quds al-Arabi Online in Arabic --
   Website of London-based independent Arab nationalist daily with strong
   anti-US bias. URL: http://www.alquds.co.uk/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   41) Back to Top
   US Approves Increased Military Expenditure for 2012
   KCNA headline: "U.S. Increases Military Expenditure" - KCN A
   Thursday June 23, 2011 07:59:22 GMT
   (Description of Source: Pyongyang KCNA in English -- Official DPRK news
   agency. URL: http://www.kcna.co.jp)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   42) Back to Top
   Belgian Editorial Welcomes US Plan for Gradual Withdrawal from Afghanistan
   Editorial by Christophe Lamfalussy: "Returning Afghanistan to the Afghans"
   - La Libre Belgique
   Thursday June 23, 2011 08:02:21 GMT
   (Description of Source: Brussels La Libre Belgique in French --
   right-of-center daily)

   Ma terial in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   43) Back to Top
   Analyst Comments on Insurgency Fear After US Afghanistan Withdrawal
   Words within double slantlines are in English; For a video of this
   program, contact OSC at (800)205-8615 or GSG_VSD@rccb.osis.gov. - Geo News
   TV
   Thursday June 23, 2011 08:12:56 GMT
   Geo News, 23 Jun ).

   (Askari) Look, the major interest of Pakistan Iran, India and other
   adjoining countries will be (to keep an eye on) the internal situation in
   Afghanistan when the //withdrawal// of (the US) forces will begin and,
   especially by 2012, when a significant number of forces would have (
   already) left (the region). Will this (withdrawal) increase stability (in
   Afghanistan)? Is the force, which is being prepared by the US in
   Afghanistan, capable enough to //provide independent security//? If
   Afghanistan becomes //instable//, then the territorial forces (present
   there) will start to exercise their (own) powers.(Anchorperson Wajih Sani)
   All right Mr Hassan Askari. President Obama achieved success in the 2008
   (elections) with the promise that (the US) troops in Iraq and Afghanistan
   will be called back as early as possible. But even after a lapse of three
   years, the announcement has been made for systematic withdrawal of (the
   US) troops rather than complete withdrawal. How satisfied are you with
   this announcement?(Askari) Look, he (President Obama) has tried to
   //deal// with two types of //pressure// by announcing the systematic
   withdrawal (of US troops). The first is the //domestic pressure// in the
   US regarding his promise to call back the troops. So, h e made the
   announcement of calling back the troops (to please) his //voters//. On the
   other hand, the US is //concerned// that if a sudden //withdrawal// is
   made from Afghanistan by calling a large number of the US soldiers back,
   then Afghanistan could become a victim of insurgency. It is possible that
   perhaps the Afghan government will not be able to handle the
   responsibility. That is why the US is //withdrawing// in a cautious
   manner. The US will call 10,000 troops back by December (2011) and 3,300
   (as stated) (troops) until May (2012). A major //conference// is going to
   be held in May (2012) with NATO, in which the //speed of the next
   withdrawal// will be determined. It is difficult to continue to maintain
   the balance, but President Obama has indicated his aim to maintaining this
   balance.(Sani) Mr Hassan Askari, Can it be said that it took three years
   for the US //establishment// to //realize// that dialogue could be held
   with the Taliban and, because there is no us e in fighting, (the US)
   troops should be called back?(Askari) I think this is a lesson which the
   US has learned with time. When the US came (to this region) and launched
   an attack in October 2001, its //objective// was to achieve success. I
   think, two years ago, it //realized// that success could not be achieved
   and a political solution has to be found. Efforts are being made to move
   toward a political solution after (exhausting all) //options//. Even now,
   the US is hoping for the initiation of //dialogue// between the Afghan
   Government and some Taliban //groups//. This is the reason why President
   Obama has discussed those conditions in his speech on the basis of which
   the Afghan Government could hold talks (with the Taliban) to find a
   political solution.(Sani) Thank you very much Mr Hassan Askari. (End live
   relay). Click on wmv or OSC video server to view Geo News TV news report
   in Urdu on analyst commenting on the US withdrawal strategy in Afghanistan
   (23 Jun, 3 minut es ).

   (Description of Source: Karachi Geo News TV in Urdu -- 24-hour satellite
   news TV channel owned by Pakistan's Jang publishing group, broadcast from
   Dubayy. Known for providing quick and detailed reports of events. Programs
   include some Indian shows and dramas which the group claims are aimed at
   promoting people-to-people contact and friendly relations with
   India.)Attachments:PresidentObamaGeoNewsTV23Jun11.jpg

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   44) Back to Top
   News Roundup 22, 23 Jun - Iran -- OSC Summary
   Thursday June 23, 2011 07:20:43 GMT
   POLITICS/DIPLOMACY Domestic Affairs Press T V: "Iran hails guilds for
   reforms' success"

   (Thu, 23 Jun) Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has hailed the role of
   the country's guilds and trade associations in the implementation of his
   administration's major economic reform plan.Addressing the heads of guilds
   and trade unions at a Wednesday meeting marking the national day of
   guilds, President Ahmadinejad reiterated that plans to phase-out of
   government subsidies in the country were carried out successfully thanks
   to the prudent performance and cooperation of various guilds and despite
   efforts by those that sought to hinder the process, hoping that the
   undertaking would inflict a major blow on the nation, IRNA reported."But I
   bear witness that the guilds in key sectors wisely pushed ahead with the
   plan," the president emphasized, noting how the trade associations managed
   the market ahead of the Iranian new year in March and assured the public
   of the plan's success.He further described the sm ooth progress of the
   economic reform as a miracle and praised the Iranian nation for their
   cooperation with the initiative.The subsidy-cut plan -- encompassing key
   consumer goods such as energy and food products -- went into effect in
   December 2010 and is due to gradually remove all subsidies in a five-year
   period.Supporters of the plan say the initiative will lead to a better
   distribution of wealth among the public, as the government has vowed that
   it would tackle economic problems such as housing and unemployment as well
   as improving the banking system through the reform plan.Officials say
   energy subsidies in the past cost the Iranian government nearly 100
   billion dollars per year and removing them will help Iran get rid of a
   heavily subsidized economy.President Ahmadinejad also dismissed during his
   Wednesday address alleged Western concerns about the Islamic Republic's
   peaceful nuclear program, reiterating that the real fear of arrogant
   powers are in fact the potency and progress of the Iranian nation."They
   are not worried about our production of an atomic bomb; rather, they
   regard the Iranian nation as the real bomb that can achieve whatever it
   sets out to do," he said. "In that case, no place would be left for them,
   and that's why they are so angry at the Iranian nation." (Go to top) Radio
   Zamaneh: "Possible overtures to Iranian reformists for joining elections"
   (Wed, 22 Jun) The head of Iran's Parliament is reportedly inviting
   "moderate and prominent reformists" to t ake part in the parliamentary
   election next March, Iranian media report.The Iranian Labour News Agency
   (ILNA) cited an "informed source" saying Parliamentary Speaker Ali
   Larijani has had a secret meeting with a reformist member of the current
   Parliament to discussed issues around the next election.The report adds
   that the meeting took place a month ago in Larijani's office in the
   presence of his deputy, Hassan Zamani. " Mr. Larijani has asked the
   reformist MP about moderate well-known reformists who could run in the
   next election."ILNA says its source has indicated that the parliamentary
   speaker continues to make efforts to meet with reformist representatives,
   adding: "Mr. Larijani criticized the current parliamentary makeup and said
   the coming Parliament must be composed of moderate and experienced
   individuals from both factions (reformists and conservatives) in order to
   avoid the current problems."In the meantime, the reformist MP Jalal
   Jalalizadeh from Sanandaj told ILNA that the reformists are still
   undecided about joining the upcoming election. First and foremost, he
   said, the conditions set out by former president Mohammad Khatami must be
   met before such issues can be discussed.Khatami, one of the chief
   reformist figures in the Islamic Republic, posed three conditions for the
   participation of reformists in the coming elections: first, the release of
   political prisoners and freedom of activit y for political parties;
   second, officials must commit to following the Constitution; and finally,
   the election must be free and transparent.After the 2009 presidential
   election, the opposition accused the government of widespread vote fraud.
   The establishment and the conservative elite denied the allegations and
   clamped down on mass protests, which resulted in dozens of deaths and
   thousands of arrests. Several newspapers and reformist media were shut
   down, and reformist political parities have been dissolved.Khatami has
   tried to bring about a national reconciliation by calling on the
   establishment to release political prisoners and to end its excessive use
   of security forces across the country to crush dissent.Meanwhile, some
   opposition figures have criticized Khatami's conciliatory efforts,
   accusing him of showing more concern for the system rather than the
   legitimate demands of the people. (Go to top) Foreign Affairs IRNA:
   "Bahraini diplomat summoned over restrictions on Iranian nationals"

   (Wed, 22 Jun) Foreign Ministry on Wednesday summoned the Bahrain charge
   d'affaires in protest at illegal restrictions the Bahraini government has
   imposed on certain Iranian nationals.According to Foreign Ministry's
   Information and Press Department, Deputy Head of Foreign Ministry's Social
   Affairs Department in the meeting informed the Bahraini diplomat of Iran's
   official protest at such behaviors of the Bahraini government which are in
   violation of the international conventions.He asked the Bahraini
   government to respect the rights of Iranian nationals in Bahrain. (Go to
   top) IRNA: "Source denies Bahraini envoy's visit to Iran" (Wed, 22 Jun) An
   informed source at Foreign Ministry on Wednesday ruled aside a report that
   Bahraini king's special envoy had traveled to Iran.The source said Iran
   supports any diplomatic move which guarantees independence of Bahrain and
   restore rights of the country's people to t hem. (Go to top) IRNA: "Iran
   elected as deputy president of UN General Assembly"

   (Thu, 23 Jun) New York - The United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday
   elected Iran's Ambassador to the UN Mohammad Khazaee as its next deputy
   president.The 192-member assembly also elected the Qatari ambassador to
   the UN as president of its 66th session. The Qatari diplomat, Nassir
   Abdulaziz al-Nasser, has been Qatar's ambassador to the UN since
   1998.Talking to IRNA, Khazaee outlined the strategic policies and
   objectives of the UN General Assembly for the next year.On the election of
   the Qatari envoy as the assembly's president, Khazaee said Qatar is the
   Islamic Republic's friendly and brotherly country and Tehran supports the
   election. (Go to top) IRNA: "Cuba president: Iran enjoys special position
   among nations" (Wed, 22 Jun) Cuban President Raul Castro said Wednesday
   Iran enjoys a special place among the revolutionary nations.President
   Castro made the remark d uring a telephone conversation with his Iranian
   counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.He underlined the need for further
   expansion of Tehran-Havana friendly ties to fight global capitalism.For
   his part, President Ahmadinejad termed Iran-Cuba cooperation as
   'excellent', stressing that Tehran attaches great importance to its
   relations with all Latin American states, particularly with Cuba.He
   reiterated that such ties would benefit all freedom-loving states. (Go to
   top) IRNA: "Iran, Turkmenistan Presidents discuss regional developments
   over phone" (Wed, 22 Jun) President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his Turkmen
   counterpart Gurbanguly Berdimuhammadov discussed on Wednesday regional
   cooperation and developments over phone.Countries of the region through
   collective cooperation can help resolve many problems and restore peace
   and justice, said President Ahmadinejad.During the telephone conversation,
   the Iranian president described the two sides' relations as very
   consolidated and f riendly, adding that regional countries are on the
   right path towards development and should make use of all their potentials
   to this effect.There are ample untapped grounds for cooperartion in
   various sectors such as construction of railroads, infrastructure projects
   and energy which should be used as soon as possible in order to bring more
   comfort and welfare for both nations as well as other nations in the
   region, said the Iranian president.The Turkmen president, for his part,
   described the Islamic Republic of Iran as its reliable partner and
   underlined that expansion of relations and cooperation will be to the
   benefit of both nations.He expressed satisfaction with expansion of
   cooperation with Iran in various fields such as energy and said this will
   be to the benefit of both nations as well as other people of the region
   and the world.On construction of Iran-Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan railroad
   track, he expressed the hope it would be accomplished in due course in
   order to im prove relations between the two sides.The two presidents also
   called for expansion of mutual and regional cooperation to meet the two
   nations' interests. (Go to top) IRNA: "Time is ripe for foreign troops to
   withdraw from Afghanistan" (Wed, 22 Jun) Visiting Afghan Deputy Interior
   Minister Lieutenant-General Abdolrahman Rahman Moien said here Wednesday
   that time is ripe for withdrawal of foreign forces, Americans in
   particular, from Afghanistan.Speaking to IRNA, Rahman Moien stressed that
   Afghan forces were presently prepared to provide security in
   Afghanistan.He also expressed hope that Afghan forces could take over the
   responsibility for providing security in the country by 2014.Rahman Moien
   stressed that establishing a US military base in Afghanistan was just a
   rumor."So far, no agreement has been reached between US and Afghanistan in
   this respect," he said, expre ssing hope that more details on the issue
   would be clarified in near future.Moien added t hat unity, cooperation,
   good-neighborly relations and honesty could play a pivotal role in
   establishing security and tranquility in the region.He further noted Iran
   and Afghanistan enjoyed friendly and historic relations. (Go to top) IRNA:
   "Iran keen on regional peace establishment- Lebanon FM" (Wed, 22 Jun)
   Beirut - Foreign Minister of Lebanon Adnan Mansour here Wednesday said
   Iran is keen to ensure peace and security in the region and avoid foreign
   meddling in the regional nations' internal affairs.Exclusively speaking to
   IRNA, Mansour underlined promotion of relations between Iran and
   Lebanon.About Tehran's upcoming international conference on global fight
   against terrorism, Mansour said he will travel to Tehran Friday to attend
   the conference on behalf of the Lebanese president.During the interview,
   the Lebanese foreign minister appreciated the Islamic Republic over its
   humanitarian aid for reconstruction of the war-stricken areas in Lebanon
   after Israel's 33 -day war against the country.Terming Tehran-Beirut
   relations as positive and growing, Mansour called for accelerating the
   implementation of bilateral agreements between Tehran and Beirut. (Go to
   top) IRNA: "Japan favors developing ties with Iran: envoy" (Wed, 22 Jun)
   Isfahan - Japanese Ambassador to Iran Kinichi Kumano said that his country
   is seeking to promote ties with Iran in different fields.In a meeting with
   the deputy governor-general of Isfahan, he also added that exchange of
   students, promotion of tourism and diplomatic shuttles are on his agenda
   during his mission in Iran."Iran is a friend of Japan and we are after
   promoting communications in various fields," he said.Stating that Isfahan
   province enjoys tourism and cultural facilities, he said that his visit is
   aimed at identifying capacities for promoting communications.Kumano voiced
   his country's readiness for broadening of cooperation in the field of
   tourism.He also appreciated the Iranians' sympathy over the recent nuclear
   disaster in the wake of Tsunami in Japan and said that the two nations
   have had close ties since ancient times.Deputy Governor-General of Isfahan
   Mohammad Mehdi Esmaeili, for his part, said that his country is also keen
   to promote ties with Japan.Referring to the activities of two nuclear
   plants in the province, he said that Iran's nuclear activities are
   peaceful and within the frameworks of international regulations. (Go to
   top) IRNA: "Iran, Sudan have common discourses: Sudanese min" (Wed, 22
   Jun) Shiraz - Sudanese Culture Minister al-Samawal Khalfallah al-Qurashi
   said here on Wednesday that there are numerous commonalities between Iran
   and Sudan and despite having different languages, they have common
   discourses."Islamic civilization is the common point between Iran and
   Sudan," he told reporters while touring Pers Polis (Takht-e Jamshid)
   monument in Shiraz.BOTh nations love the Household of Prophet Mohammad
   (PBUH), he noted.He further contended that the first motto of Islam was
   that the oppressed should take control of the earth and what happened in
   Iran and what is taking place in Arab and Islamic countries signify the
   dominance of the oppressed over the arrogant powers.Al-Qureshi's visit is
   taking place at the invitation of his Iranian counterpart Mohammad
   Hosseini.The Sudanese culture minister, heading a delegation, arrived in
   Shiraz, southern Fars province, to attend opening ceremony of Sudanese
   Cultural Week. Related:

   http://www.irna.ir/ENNewsShow.aspx?NID=30442922 Sudanese culture minister
   lauds Iran's progress (Go to top) IRNA: "Iran sympathizes with Russia over
   victims of plane crash" (Wed, 22 Jun) Irani an Foreign Minister Ali-Akbar
   Salehi on Wednesday expressed condolences to the Russian nation and
   families of victims of plane crash in Russia that left 44 people
   dead.Iran's Embassy in Moscow reported that Salehi sent a message of
   sympathy to his Russian counte rpart Sergei Lavrov over this tragic event.
   (Go to top) Fars News Agency: "Moldova Keen to Boost Ties with Iran"

   (Wed, 22 Jun) Moldova's Acting President Marian Lupu praised the rapid
   trend of growth and progress in Iran, and asked for the development of
   bilateral ties and cooperation between the two countries.Speaking at a
   meeting to receive credentials of Iran's Accredited Ambassador to Moldova
   Akbar Qassemi, Lupu underlined Tehran's key role, and added, "At present I
   see huge capacities for the Islamic Republic of Iran and believe that
   Iran's future will be magnificent as well.""The path pursued by the
   Islamic Republic of Iran has specially made the Moldovan nation interested
   in an active expansion of the two countries' ties, and I wish welfare and
   prosperity for the Iranian nation," he added.He further pointed to the 4
   agreements and 9 Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) recently inked by
   Tehran and Chisinau, and said these agreements have created strong
   legislative and legal structures for the two countries' relations and
   cooperation."These structures have prepared proper grounds for the further
   bolstering of economic and trade ties between Tehran and Chisinau," the
   Moldovan president continued.Qassemi, who is also Iran's envoy to Ukraine,
   pointed to the existing grounds and potentials for cooperation, and added
   that the two sides can cooperate in a variety of fields, including energy,
   industry, agricultural products, machineries, industrial equipments,
   investment by small and medium-sized manufacturing companies, increased
   exchanges between traders and industrialists, car-manufacturing
   industries, technical-engineering services and projects, and scientific
   and cultural cooperation. (Go to top) Ghana Web: "Ghana, Iran to deepen
   ties in education and agriculture"

   (Wed, 22 Jun) Accra - Ghana and Iran are holding discussions to deep= en
   bilateral relations in sectors such as edu cation and agriculture. Mr
   Mohammed Soleyman, Iranian Ambassador to Ghana on Wednesday held a meeting
   with Mr Samuel Ofosu-Ampofo, Minister of Local Government and Rural
   Development to discuss the way forward.Mr Soleyman is on a month's
   familiarization tour of Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs)
   nationwide. He said Iran was seeking to partner Ghana to improve education
   and agriculture in both countries.Mr Soleyman announced that the Iranian
   Government was planning to cultivate rice in Ghana because of its high
   demand, and expressed gratitude to the Government for the support to
   Iranian businessmen and women in the country. Mr Ofosu-Ampofo said
   agriculture is the mainstay of Ghana's economy, and for its enhancement
   there was the need to collaborate for more development in rice
   production.He said government had encouraged the youth to engage in
   agricultural activities for personal development, hence the establishment
   of the youth in agriculture.Mr Ofosu-Ampofo called f or more support in
   the provision of mechanised inputs to make farming easier for local
   farmers, adding "The usage of local farming inputs could not increase
   production."In addition, he said, both countries could contribute in the
   tourism sector towards the development of their citizenry. Mr Ofosu-Ampofo
   appealed to the Iranian Ambassador to woo more investors into Ghana to
   establish companies to develop agriculture and produce agricultural
   inputs. (Go to top) Persian Gulf/Middle East/North Africa Fars News
   Agency: "Muallem Dismisses Allegations on Iran, Hezbollah Interference in
   Syria"

   (Wed, 22 Jun) Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem denied the allegations
   raised by the US and European media about the interference of Iran and
   Hezbollah in Syria's internal affairs."Israel is the main enemy of Syria
   and the western media are busy with provoking the public opinion on
   Syria," Mual lem told reporters in Damascus on Tuesday.He dismissed any
   military intervention by Iran and Hezbollah in dealing with Syrian
   demonstrators, and said, "The political support (by Iran and Hezbollah)
   for Syria is meant to help the country pass through the present crisis
   just like the support expressed for reforms in Syria.""But in practice
   there is no foreign military support (for the Syrian government)," Muallem
   continued.Syria has been entangled in a series of riots after the
   occurrence of popular uprisings in other Arab countries. Syrian President
   Bashar Assad has appeared in public three times since the riots began,
   most recently on Monday when he made general promises of reform.In that
   speech at Damascus University, the president said a national dialogue
   would start soon and he was forming a committee to study constitutional
   amendments, including one that would open the way to forming political
   parties other than the ruling Baath Party.He acknowledged demands for
   reform were legitimate, but he alleged once mo re than "saboteurs" were
   exploiting the movement.On Tuesday, tens of thousands of the Syrian
   government's supporters converged on squares in several major cities. "The
   people want Bashar Assad!" some shouted, releasing black, white and red
   balloons - colors of the Syrian flag.The fact that tens of thousands of
   people were on the streets was a reminder that Assad enjoys a large public
   support. (Go to top) Press TV: "Hezbollah nabs Israel spies within ranks"
   (Wed, 22 Jun) Lebanon's resistance movement Hezbollah has arrested several
   people within its own ranks on suspicion of spying for Israel's
   intelligence service, Mossad.According to the Lebanese sources, more than
   10 Hezbollah members, among them high-ranking figures, were arrested over
   the past few days for collaborating with Israel.Mohammad Atwi from the
   Nabatiyeh district in south Lebanon, who was responsible for organizing
   security within the party and coordinating activities with Iran and Syria,
   is one of the high ranking Hezbollah officials arrested in this regard,
   the Kuwaiti newspaper al-Rai reported.A cleric is also reported to be
   among the suspected Israeli spies."A group of Hezbollah members were
   detained in the past few days for collaborating with Israel," an unnamed
   Hezbollah source told Now Lebanon but refused to disclose the number of
   those detained or their position in the party.The Lebanese resistance
   movement says the detainees are being interrogated, adding that some have
   confessed to spying for Mossad while others deny the charges.Hezbollah
   says it discovered the spy cell three months ago after very crucial
   information about the movement was passed to Israel.Several prominent
   Lebanese figures, including members of the army, politics and business,
   have been arrested over the last two years on charges of spying for
   Israel.Tel Aviv has launched an intelligence war against Hezbollah
   following its defeat during the 33-day war against the Lebanese resistance
   movement in 2006.If convicted, the spies will face life sentences with
   hard labor. Should they be found guilty of contributing to the loss of the
   Lebanese life, the agents will face capital punishment.Lebanese President
   Michel Sleiman has called for severe punishment for Israeli spies, saying
   he would sign death sentences handed down by the court. (Go to top) IRNA:
   "Jail sentences not stop Bahrain uprising, says convicted protester" (Thu,
   23 Jun) London - One of opposition figures sentenced by a military court
   in Bahrain said on Wednesday that the jail terms will not stop the
   pro-democracy campaign in the Persian Gulf states."There will be no
   change. The protests will continue calling for democracy and freedom,"
   said Abbas Omran, a member of the Bahrain Human Rights Society based in
   London, who was sentenced for 15 years in ab sentia.In an interview with
   IRNA, Omran described the convictions as "politically motivated" and re
   flecting the "revenge of the regime" against the three-and-a-half months
   of protests in Bahrain.Altogether 21 opposition figures were sentenced by
   the military court in Manama, including eight given life sentences, 10
   receiving 15-year terms, two others sentenced to five years and one given
   two years.Seven people were sentenced in absentia, three of whom are
   believed to be in hiding in Bahrain and four in the UK, including Saeed
   Shahabi, who was given a life term."They tried to paint the opposition
   with charges that are not true," Omran said, adding that the sentences
   were "very high and did not reflect the cases.""There was no criminal
   evidence in the military trials, only statements obtained by force and
   torture from the detainees," he said.Bahrain's use of military courts
   against civilian have already been condemned for violating basic rights by
   civil liberty organisations, including Human Rights Watch and Amnesty
   International.Omra n suggested that the alleged accusations of a so-called
   plot to overthrow the regime by force and outside agents were only used as
   an excuse for the military courts.The military courts were used by Egypt
   and by other Arab countries against protesters but they "did not prevent
   the uprisings," he said. (Go to top) NUCLEAR ISSUE/SANCTIONS Fars News
   Agency: "Iran's IAEA Mission to Prepare Grounds for Amano's Visit to Iran"

   (Wed, 22 Jun) Iran's Residing Representative at the International Atomic
   Energy Agency (IAEA) Ali Asqar Soltaniyeh announced that his office is
   tasked with taking the preparatory measures for an upcoming visit to Iran
   by the UN nuclear watchdog chief, Yukiya Amano.Speaking to FNA about the
   recent visit to Vienna by the Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of
   Iran (AEOI), Fereidoon Abbasi Davani, Soltaniyeh stated that the AEOI
   chief has invited IAEA Director-General Yukiya Amano to visit Iran's
   nuclear sites and facilities."A nd it has been agreed that our country's
   mission in Vienna adopt the preparatory works and planning for the visit,"
   Soltaniyeh added.He further described the meeting between Abbasi and Amano
   as "constructive and transparent", and said the two sides have had major
   talks over Iran-IAEA interaction.Abbasi and Amano met in Vienna on Tuesday
   on the sidelines of a five-day IAEA nuclear safety conference.Following
   the meeting, Abbasi announced that during his talks with the IAEA
   director-general, he had invited Amano and his colleagues to a tour of
   Iran's nuclear facilities.Abbasi said he had even invited Amano to visit
   any nuclear site he wants all throughout Iran."I invited Mr. Amano to come
   to visit anywhere they like in all our nuclear installations," Reuters
   reported.He also said that he had held "very good" and "transparent" talks
   with Amano.Abbasi said that the two sides pledged to resolve problems
   through more dialogue in future, but did not give any details on what was
   discussed."We don't have a difference of view," he stated. (Go to top)
   Press TV: "Iran ready to share N-achievements"

   (Wed, 22 Jun) Iran says it is ready to provide other states with nuclear
   technology under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency
   (IAEA)."The Islamic Republic of Iran is a competent country in nuclear
   technology and know-how, and as a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation
   Treaty (NPT) it is capable of sharing its achievements with other
   countries under the supervision of the agency," IRNA quoted Fereydoun
   Abbasi, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), as
   saying on Tuesday.The AEOI chief, who was talking to reporters on the
   sidelines of a high-leve l meeting on improving nuclear safety in Vienna,
   Austria, further pointed out that Iran is prepared to set up "factories
   for processing nuclear materials" in joint ventures with NPT membe rs
   under the IAEA supervision.In April, Abbasi announced Iran's plans to
   "build four or five new reactors with a capacity of 10-20 megawatts in
   different provinces," adding that to provide fuel for these reactors,
   Tehran needs to continue with the 20-percent enrichment... (Go to top)
   Fars News Agency: "US Acknowledges Ineffectiveness of Sanctions against
   Iran" (Wed, 22 Jun) Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC)
   Undersecretary Ali Baqeri dismissed as ineffective the sanctions imposed
   by certain western countries against Iran, and said even Americans who
   have sponsored those embargoes now acknowledge that the measure is futile
   at the best."In a meeting in the US on the level of the effectiveness of
   sanctions against Iran's economy, one of the prominent American figures
   acknowledged that sanctions against Iran are ineffectiveness," Baqeri said
   on Tuesday.He quoted the American figure as saying that Iran's economic
   progress is like a bus moving ahead speedily on a highway and sanctions
   are like a dog chasing the bus and trying to catch it."The dog will at
   best reach the bus but will not be able to stop it," Baqeri said, citing
   the American figure.Despite the hostile policies and moves of the United
   States and its European allies, Iran has shown a promising trend of growth
   in science and economy...Political observers believe that the United
   States has remained at loggerheads with Iran mainly over the independent
   and home-grown nature of Tehran's nuclear technology, which gives the
   Islamic Republic the potential to turn into a world power and a role model
   for other third-world countries. (Go to top) ECONOMY/ENERGY Fars News
   Agency: "Iran Warns to Block All Moves Intended to Affect Oil Price"

   (Wed, 22 Jun) Iran's caretaker oil minister warned on Wednesday that
   Tehran would strongly confront any possible move by the oil producing
   countries to affect market prices, alluding to Saudi Ar abia's West-backed
   surplus production which faced the strong protest of the OPEC members in
   the last ministerial meeting of the cartel in Vienna."Iran will stop any
   move designed to play with oil prices through production hike," said
   Mohammad Aliabadi whose country holds presidency of the Organization of
   Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).Aliabadi further described
   maintenance of the current production level by the OPEC members as the
   bloc's only weapon to control the prices, and reiterated, "We do not allow
   anyone to play with our national interests."Saudi Arabia sought hard to
   convince the member states to demand a boost in production during OPEC's
   ministerial meeting in the Austrian capital, Vienna on June 8, but it
   failed.Following the ministerial meeting, Aliabadi, who presided over the
   OPEC meeting, told FNA that Iran managed to thwart the efforts made by
   Saudi Arabia to increase the OPEC oil output during the 150th meeting of
   the oil exporting bl oc.The Iranian caretaker oil minister said that Saudi
   Arabia has a history in supporting oil output rise, adding that
   "apparently, two or three weeks ahead of the OPEC meeting, (US President)
   Mr. (Barack) Obama" asked oil industry insiders to help lower oil
   prices.Aliabadi pointed out that some countries act against their own
   national interests and seek to sacrifice other states' as well, but the
   Islamic Republic would defend its interests.The Iranian official explained
   that such moves made the latest OPEC meeting difficult for those members
   who sought a spike in oil production."It was very bad and difficult for
   them (Saudi Arabia), they who wanted to come and not just add 1.5 milli on
   barrels but to increase (oil production) by 2.85 million barrels" per day,
   Aliabadi stated.The OPEC president further noted that for the first time
   many countries stood up to Saudi's measure except for the United Arab
   Emirates and Kuwait that later refrained from entering t alks.He also said
   that Iran, Venezuela and Algeria and some other countries opposed the
   Saudi move which was under the Western influence."I finally proposed to
   postpone a motion... by some three months and announce that a final
   decision will be made in three months as the OPEC has not reached a
   decision," Aliabadi said, adding that after the interval the bloc could
   meet and decide based on market reactions.He added that Saudi Arabia and
   its allies opposed the ruling and urged a rise in the OPEC output,
   threatening to unilaterally increase their quota.It showed they had set
   their minds on an increase beforehand, regardless of the OPEC meeting's
   outcome, Aliabadi concluded.After ministers were unable to reach consensus
   to raise crude production, OPEC has decided to maintain output levels,
   with the option of meeting within the next three months to discuss a
   production hike... (Go to top) Press TV: "Iran to produce 5,000 MW of
   green power" (Wed, 22 Jun) Iran plans to generate more than 5,000
   megawatts of electricity from renewable energy resources by 2015, says
   Iranian Energy Minister Majid Namjou."Iran is pursing to fulfill its major
   strategic objectives in the field of renewable energies," Namjou said
   during an international energy forum in the Austrian capital of Vienna on
   Wednesday, IRIB reported. }The Vienna international energy conference,
   themed "Energy for All, Time for Action" opened on Monday, and focuses on
   ways to secure sustainable policies and investments to allow a shift
   towards a low-carbon "green economy" driven by "green industry."Namjou
   went on to say that renewable energies will account for about three
   percent of Iran's electricity needs by 2015.He also called on all
   companies and organizations to invest in Iran's green energy projects to
   help develop the new sources of energy in the country."This cooperation
   will be beneficial for investors and will also accompli sh Iran's
   objectives in developing the new sources of energy," the Iranian minister
   said.Earlier, Namjou said that Iran plans to issue more than two billion
   dollars in bonds to finance its power plant projects for generating more
   electricity.About 40 heads of state and officials at ministerial level are
   expected to join some 1,000 experts, scholars and activists in the
   three-day UN-backed conference. (Go to top) Fars News Agency: "Iran to
   Celebrate Self-Sufficiency in Gasoline Production" (Wed, 22 Jun) Iranian
   oil officials announced that the country will celebrate self-sufficiency
   in premium gasoline production in early July."The country will achieve
   self-sufficiency in premium gasoline production after launching the
   gasoline production unit of the second phase of Imam Khomeini Oil
   Refinery's development project in Shazand (in the central province of
   Markazi) in early July," the General Manager of the National Iranian Oil
   Refining and Distribution Company Alireza Zeiqami said."By opening the
   project, the daily gasoline production in the refinery will reach seven
   million liters," he said, adding the current capacity of the refinery is
   4.5 million liters on daily basis."The project is one of the important
   projects of the country and is implemented by spending some 3.5 billion US
   dollars," Zeiqami continued.In May, Iran said that it postponed producing
   premium gasoline in Abadan Refinery after an explosion occurred in the
   inauguration ceremony of the new project.The world's fifth-biggest crude
   oil exporter for long depended on imported gasoline for 30 to 40 percent
   of its consumption, but now has become a net exporter.In April, the
   National Iranian Oil Engineering and Construction Company (NIOEC)
   announced that Iran is set to increase its gasoline output by more than
   four times, from the current 42 million liters (11.09 million gallons) per
   day to 186 million liters (49.1 million gallons) per day in a five-year
   period.Also earlier in April, Iran's former Oil Minister Massoud
   Mir-Kazzemi announced that the country plans to boost its daily gasoline
   output by 22 million liters this year.Speaking to reporters on the
   sidelines of a ceremony to inaugurate the first phase of the development
   plan of Lavan oil refinery in the Persian Gulf, the minister also said
   that Iran plans to improve the quality of its gasoline production in order
   to get Euro-4 and Euro-5 standards in the near future.Mir-Kazzemi had
   announced in February that the country is prepared to export gasoline to
   the neighboring countries due to the excessive production of Iranian oil
   refineries.Iran is by now ready to export gasoline to the neighboring
   countries, Mir-Kazzemi said, and reiterated that Iran is now
   self-sufficient in gasoline production.Iran increased its gasoline
   production after the United States and the European Union started
   approving their own unilateral sanctions against the Islamic Republic over
   its nuclear program, mostly targeting the country's energy and banking
   sectors, including a US boycott of gasoline supplies to Iran. (Go to top)
   Fars News Agency: "Iranian Minister Urges Increased Use of Renewable
   Energies by World States" (Wed, 22 Jun) Iran's Energy Minister Majid
   Namjou demanded the world nations to direct their energy policies towards
   consumption of renewable energy resources."Development in using renewable
   energies will decrease green house gases, so including such energy in
   long-term policy will be the best choice for future energy needs," Namjou
   said addressing the Second International Energy Conference in Vienna on
   Tuesday."Technical and financial support of industrialist countries by
   transferring technical know-how to the developing countries will increase
   energy efficiency, to conserve energy consumption and producing clean
   energy in those countries and the released resources could be used in
   generating more renewable ener gies," he added.The minister also explained
   number of programs and measures to promote efficiency of production and
   consumption of energy as well as development of renewable energies in
   Iran.To guarantee the key role of renewable energies in sustainable
   development number of pre-conditions should be considered such as
   international participation, exchanging experiences, transferring new
   technologies, finding new ways for supplying financial resources for
   investment, he continued.To conclude his remarks, the Iranian Energy
   Minister expressed hope that holding such conferences can create a strong
   motivation in all c ountries for pay ing more attenti on and cooperation
   for green industry and supplying renewable energy.Second International
   Energy Conference as well as ministerial meeting on energy and green
   industry kicked off its work here on Tuesday and more than one thousand
   officials, experts, representatives of international organizations and
   non-governmental bodies wi ll discuss different issues concerning clean
   energy for all. (Go to top) MILITARY/SECURITY IRNA: "Supreme Leader: Arms
   production in Iran seeks defensive purposes"

   (Wed, 22 Jun) Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali
   Khamenei said here on Wednesday that arms production in Iran is aimed at
   defending the country and confronting the bullying enemies.Addressing a
   group of armed forces personnel, Ayatollah Khamenei said, "The main aim
   behind arms production in the Islamic Republic is to defend the country
   and counter the bullying enemies, whereas the West produces such arms for
   trade purposes and adding up to the wealth of owners of arms manufacturing
   companies."The Ayatollah said thanks to endeavors of the Iranian Armed
   Forces, the sanctions imposed on the country have proved
   ineffective.Elsewhere in his remarks, Ayatollah Khamenei lauded Iranian
   Armed Forces for their invaluable research, saying all research centers in
   the armed forces should exepdite their progress and avoid being engaged in
   parallel works or wasting of human and financial resources.The research
   should not be product oriented, rather it should help upgrade science and
   technological know-how of the country, added the Paramount
   Leader.Stressing promotion of research centers in the armed forces and
   support for the elite and researchers, Ayatollah Khamenei said research
   centers should have scientific cooperation with universities and other
   scientific centers within the frameworks of rules and regulations.Prior to
   his speech , Ayatollah Khamenei paid a six-and-half-an-hour visit to an
   exhibition showcasing more than 300 scientific and technological
   achievements of the Armed Forces.The exhibit displays space and maritime
   equipment, air defense systems, aircraft, helicopters, unmanned planes,
   vessels, submarines sophisticated two- and three-dimensional radars,
   electronic jet equipment, cyber war systems, and other scientific and
   technolo gical achievements of the Armed Forces including the Islamic
   Revolution Guards Corps, the Islamic Republic Army, Police and Defense
   Ministry. Related:

   http://presstv.com/detail/185824.html 'Iran makes weapons only to defend'

   http://www.irna.ir/ENNewsShow.aspx?NID=30443748 Supreme Leader visits
   exhibition on armed forces achievements (Go to top) Fars News Agency:
   "Minister: Necessary Measures Adopted against Possible Cyber Attacks"
   (Wed, 22 Jun) Iranian Intelligence Minister Heidar Moslehi said that his
   ministry has provided the country's state and private firms and
   organizations with the necessary security instructions and measures to
   confront possible cyber attacks."The intelligence ministry has notified
   the different bodies of the necessary precautions and preventive measures
   that they need to take against cyber attacks," Moslehi told reporters on
   the sidelines of a cabinet meeting here in Tehran on Wednesday."Hence,
   these are the or ganizations themselves which need to decide if they
   should carry out these protective actions," Moslehi added.In April Iran
   announced that it has discovered the Stars virus that was used for
   espionage purposes.That was the second cyber attack waged by enemies of
   Iran to undermine the country's nuclear as well as economic and industrial
   activities.In January, Spokesman of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran
   (AEOI) Hamid Khadem Qaemi stated that certain western countries' attempts
   to disrupt acti vities and operations at Iran's nuclear sites and plants
   via a malware known as Stuxnet failed to impede the country's progress and
   advancement.Earlier, Western media had reported that Iran temporarily
   halted most of its uranium enrichment work in December and western
   diplomats said they believed the halt was linked to technical problems
   caused by Stuxnet worm.In response, former Head of the Atomic Energy
   Organization of Iran (AEOI) Ali Akbar Salehi, who is now the country's F
   oreign Minister, revealed at the time that some western countries started
   attempts to disrupt activitie s and operations at Iran's nuclear sites and
   plants via Stuxnet a year ago."Since a year ago, the westerners have tried
   to infiltrate our country's nuclear sites to open a way for their worm
   (Stuxnet worm) to disrupt their activities, but the country's young
   experts stopped the virus exactly at those points that enemies intended to
   infiltrate," Salehi stated.The Stuxnet worm is the first known malicious
   software of its kind unleashed by computer hackers and has opened the door
   to a new era of cyber-warfare.Experts say it is designed to destroy or
   sabotage factories, power plants, refineries or other industrial
   installations. (Go to top) Fars News Agency: "Commander Stresses Iran's
   Upper-Hand in Soft War" (Wed, 22 Jun) A senior commander of the Islamic
   Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) underlined that the Islamic nature of
   Iran's establishment has granted the country an upper-hand in soft war
   against enemies."Our soft war power is much more than enemy's since Islam
   and our beliefs are our backbone, and this backbone is the strongest in
   the world," Commander of IRGC's Sahib ul-Amr Corps Salar Abnoush said,
   addressing a meeting in Iran's Northern city of Qazvin on Tuesday
   evening.He further pointed out that a good knowledge and understanding of
   these two assets enables all Iranian commanders to lead and command their
   forces efficiently.In December, Iranian Intelligence Minister Heidar
   Moslehi cautioned that enemies are continuing their plots against the
   Islamic Republic through soft tactics and are spending billions of dollars
   to overthrow the Islamic establishment in Iran."During the last 25 years,
   as many as 80 institutions, foundations, associations and companies
   specialized in soft war against Iran have been set up with
   two-billion-dollar annual funds," Moslehi said at the time."There are
   numerous l ike-minded institutions and agencies inside and outside of
   Iran, whose missions are mainly focused on toppling the Islamic
   establishment in the country," he warned.He pointed to the complexity of
   soft war against Iran, and stated, "The enemies of the Islamic Republic
   have always been involved in hatching long-term plans over the past 19
   years as part a soft war against the Iranian nation and in doing so they
   have allocated more than $17.7 billion in order to stage a coup against
   the sacred establishment of the Islamic Republic."Supreme Leader of the
   Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei had also on many occasions
   warned about the enemies' soft-war plots to undermine Iran's resolve
   towards progress. In November 2009, he underlined the necessity for proper
   measures to repel enemy's soft war against Iran."Today, the main priority
   of the country is to confront (enemy's) soft warfare which is aimed at
   creating doubt, discord and pessimism among the m asses of the people,"
   Ayatollah Khamenei said, addressing a large and fervent congregation of
   Basij (volunteer) forces. (Go to top) TERRORISM/CRIME/NARCOTICS Fars News
   Agency: "Terrorists Attack Iranian Oil Ministry Convoy in Baghdad"

   (Wed, 22 Jun) Gunfire attacks by unknown terrorists on an Iranian oil
   ministry convoy in Central Baghdad on Wednesday injured two Iraqi
   bodyguards, but killed no o ne.According to media news, the Iranian
   delegation headed by Managing-Director of the National Iranian Oil
   Refining and Distribution Company Alireza Zeiqami was returning from a
   meeting with the Iraqi oil minister when it was attacked by the
   assailants.FNA dispatches from Baghdad said none of the Iranians was
   wounded in the attack."Thanks God, all members of the Iranian delegation
   are in good health conditions," Zeiqami told the Iranian oil company
   website, Naft news, later in the day.He also underlined success of his
   visit to Baghdad, and said, &amp;quo t;We have signed several agreements for
   the daily export of 1.5mln liters of fuel to Iraq,".The incident took
   place as Iraqi foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari is also in Tehran to hold a
   series of meetings with high-ranking Iranian officials. Related:

   http://www.newsnow.co.uk/A/502391467?-1376 Iran's Deputy Petroleum
   Minister attacked in Baghdad

   http://presstv.com/detail/185797.html Iran delegation escapes attack in
   Iraq (Go to top) IRNA: "FM: six presidents in Tehran Saturday for
   anti-terrorism conference"

   (Wed, 22 Jun) Foreign Minister Ali-Akbar Salehi said Wednesday that six
   presidents and a number of senior officials of other countries would be
   here next Saturday to attend an international conference on
   terrorism.Salehi said that the conference would be something "exceptional"
   and discuss different issues related to terrorism.Speaking to reporters at
   the end of a cabinet meeting, the minister added some bilateral and
   multilate ral meetings would be held on the sidelines of the international
   event."Terrorism is created by the West but this is the East which is
   suffering from it," Salehi stressed.Touching upon comments made by the
   French president about Iran's human rights situation, Salehi said the
   issue of human rights "has become a political tool to exert pressure on
   certain countries."As for naming a special human rights reporter by the
   United Nations for Iran, Salehi said Iran had previously invited UN High
   Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay to visit the country."When there
   is a commissioner what would be the reason for sending a special envoy,"
   Salehi said expressing hope that Ms. Pillay "will be coming to Iran in
   future, God willing." (Go to top) IRNA: "Jalili: Terrorism a tool in hands
   of Americans to promote insecurity in region" (Wed, 22 Jun) Secretary of
   Iran's Supreme National Security Council Saeed Jalili said here on
   Wednesday that terrorism is a tool in the hands of the Americans to
   promote insecurity in the region.In a meeting with his Iraqi Foreign
   Minister Hushyar Zibari, he referred to the historical, religious and
   cultural commonalities between the two states and said that given Iraq's
   potentials, it deserves to play an effective role in the region.Pointing
   to the destructive consequences of the presence of terrorists in Ashraf
   Camp, Iraq, Jalili also said that opposition of certain powers to the
   Iraqi initiative to uproot terrorism in the country is a proof of their
   double-standard policies.Jalili also said that experience has it that the
   Iraqis are capable of establishing peace and security in their country and
   the occupiers have brought nothing but insecurity to Iraq.Zibari, for his
   part, hailed Iran's role in helping Iraq pass through various crises as
   well as mutual cooperation.Referring to the exit of alien forces from Iraq
   by the end of 2011, he also said that the Iraqis favor all-out
   independence in all domains.Iraq's new government seeks to promote ties
   with its neighbors and has made extensive efforts to bolster ties with
   Iran in all fields. (Go to top) IRNA: "Iran's envoy urges cooperation to
   fight against terrorism" (Thu, 23 Jun) Dushanbe - Iran's Ambassador to
   Tajikistan Ali-Asghar Sherdoust here on Thursday underscored the need to
   boost all-out international cooperation to fight against terrorism.Talking
   to IRNA, he regretted that the world of Islam has always been the target
   of terrorism throughout the globe.He reiterated that the so-called
   advocates of anti-terrorism campaign, themselves, are the root cause of
   expansion of terrorism in the world.He referred to terrorism as the main
   obstacle in the way of materialization of global peace, stressing that
   international coalition and all-out cooperation are only ways to fight
   against such an evil phenomenon.The Iranian envoy further expressed
   concern over expansion of terrorist operations in the Middle East region,
   saying the phenomenon is the major result of invasion of Afghanistan and
   Iraq by foreign military forces.On the ongoing International Conference on
   Global Fight Against Terrorism to be held in Tehran on June 25-26, he
   expressed hope that the event would be successful in finding solutions to
   the terrorism problem in the world.Representatives from over 60 world
   countries and regional and international organizations are to attend the
   conference.Tajik President Imomali Rakhmon, heading a high-ranking
   delegation, will leave Dushanbe for Tehran to take part in the event,
   Sherdoust announced. (Go to top) IRNA: "UN agency calls for coordinated
   campaign against organized crimes" (Wed, 22 Jun) Islamabad -- A United
   Nations conference on drug control on Wednesday asked all countries
   involved in cross border cooperation to develop coordinated and parallel
   investigations to deal with the highest organizations of criminals.The
   United Nations Office o n Drugs and Crimes organized the conference on
   "Legal Framework and Cross-Border Cooperation, Controlled Deliveries/
   Joint Investigations: Procedure and Related Legislation" on June 21-22 in
   Islamabad.The conference recommended that where no legal framework exists
   for special investigative techniques including controlled deliveries under
   the drug conventions and the conventions against transitional organized
   crime the Paris Pact partners should develop and enact related
   legislation."When and if needed to facilitate practical implementation
   Paris Pact partners may consider entering into MoU outlining bilateral or
   multilateral cooperation," it recommended.The expert working groups from
   Iran, Afghanistan, Australia, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Canada, Central Asian
   Regional Information and Coordination Center (CARICC), China, Denmark,
   European Union, France, Germany, Interpol, Italy, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
   Norway, Organization for Security and Cooperation Europe ( OSCE),
   Pakistan, Russian Federation, Secretariat of the Shanghai Cooperation
   Organization (SCO), Spain, Tajikistan, Turkey, United Arab Emirates,
   United Kingdom, USA, and United Nations Office on Drugs and Crimes (UNODC)
   participated in the conference.It was also recommended that based on
   existing initiatives each Paris Pact partner, including regional and
   national law enforcement coordination centers (CARICC, JPC), should
   nominate and train a single focal point to deal with cross border
   cooperation and the focal point network should be maintained and regularly
   updated website."Given the sensitivity of the information provided by the
   requesting country each involved country should treat all information
   shared with the utmost care and within the limitations requested of the
   providing country," suggested the conference.The conference recommended
   that in order to test and adjust standard operating procedure for
   controlled deliveries, countries should consider conducti ng table top
   exercises on controlled deliveries under the auspicious of CARICC and JPC
   in coordination with Interpol and other regional and international law
   enforcement organizations."Countries are encouraged to make the best of
   the coordination capacities of CARICC and JPC in cross border operations
   and for sharing information. CARICC and JPC should establish secure
   communication links to ensure real time sharing of information," it said.
   (Go to top) DISSENT/HUMAN RIGHTS Fars News Agency: "Iran Lambasts West's
   Instrumental Use of Human Rights"

   (Wed, 22 Jun) Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi condemned the
   western countries' politically-tainted attitude towards human rights,
   saying that the West is using human rights issues as an instrument to
   pressure the independent states."The human rights issue has now become a
   political tool for the westerners," Salehi told reporters on the sidelines
   of a cabinet meeting in Tehran on Wednesd ay and in response to the
   question why Iran denied the UN human rights rapporteur the permission to
   visit the country.He underlined Iran's respect for human rights, and said
   Tehran is not worried about a scrutiny of its human rights conditions, but
   it has some reservations because of the West's double-standard policies on
   human rights issues.He reminded a recent UN resolution against Iran's
   human rights conditions, and said, "The resolution which was issued
   against Iran mainly dealt with the country's human rights conditions and
   was actually the result of the westerners' double-standard policies
   vis-a-vis Iran, because we had asked them to send special rapporteurs to
   Iran before they issued the resolution."When Iran itself raises such a
   demand, why did they need to issue a resolution against Iran?""They try to
   find fault with Iran, while Muslim minorities in the Western countries are
   not even allowed to wear hijab, and this indicates the double-standard p
   olicies of the West," he added.Iran has always lashed out at the western
   countries for using human rights issues as a tool and pretext for
   pressurizing independent states to conceal their own crimes and wrong
   deeds... (Go to top) Press TV: "Iran rejects UN's human rights claims"
   (Thu, 23 Jun) Iran's Judiciary has dismissed accusations about alleged
   rights violations in Iran, rejecting UN's appointment of a special human
   rights rapporteur for the country.In a move spearheaded by the United
   States, the UN Human Rights Council on Friday named former Maldivian
   Foreign Minister Ahmed Shaheed as its human rights investigator on the
   Islamic Republic."On the issue of human rights, we will cooperate with the
   United Nations, but within a rational framework and not as an instrument
   against our country," said Iran's Judiciary Chief Ayatollah Sadeq Amoli
   Larijani, quoted in an IRNA report Wednesday.Recalling numerous cases of
   rights violations by Western powers, Ayatollah Larijani questioned the
   world body's silence on the killing and torture of civilians during the
   US-led wars in Afghanistan and Iraq."The US (is the one) that invaded
   Afghanistan and Iraq and massacred many people while proclaiming (support
   for) human rights. However, we have not forgotten (what went on at)
   Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib prisons," he added, referring to notorious
   US-run detention centers in Cuba and Iraq respectively.Ayatollah Larijani
   ruled out the West's attempts to impose what it regards as human rights
   principles on other nations and cultures."We cannot agree with the human
   rights that they are pushing on us from their collection of Liberalist
   culture, since our own religious establishment can have a (comprehensive)
   rights system based on its own tenets," he said.The senior Iranian
   official expressed serious concerns that the issue of human rights has
   become a political instrument to pile up pressure against those that
   challenge the unjust domination of Western powers. (Go to top) Fars News
   Agency: "Commander Asks for Tough Response to UN's Politically-Driven Move
   against Iran"

   (Wed, 22 Jun) senior Iranian commander blasted the UN for its US-driven
   appointment of a human rights rapporteur on Iran, and urged the country's
   judiciary system to show a strong reaction in this regard."Nobody in here
   is waiting for the so-called UN human rights envoy, and he had better to
   change his destination to Washington...," Iranian Armed Forces Deputy
   Chief of Staff for Cultural Affairs and Defense Publicity Brigadier
   General Massoud Jazayeri said, reminding repeated and frequent cases of
   human rights violation in the US."The country's (Iran's) diplomatic
   apparatus and judiciary are expected to show decisive response to such
   moves which are carried out by the Zionist lobbies and the well-known
   opponent of the Islamic Republic of Iran," he added.Jazayeri further
   pointed to the US violations of human rights in its occupied lands,
   including Iraq and Afghanistan, and asked the rapporteur of the UN human
   rights council to visit the countries whose forces are using phosphoric
   bombs against civilian targets in Afghanistan.The UN Human Rights Council
   in March narrowly approved a US and Swedish-backed proposal for appointing
   a special rapporteur to investigate allegations of human rights violations
   in Iran. Subsequently on June 17, the UN Human Rights Council appointed
   Ahmed Shaheed, former Maldives foreign minister (2005-07), as the new
   special rapporteur to Iran.The Islamic Republic denounced the move as
   politically-motivated, saying that the measure is aimed at diverting
   attention from human rights abuses committed by the United States.Tehran
   officials also slammed the West for using human rights issue as a
   political means to pile up pressure on the Islamic Republic.Earlier this
   month, Iran's Foreign Ministry underlined the need for the international
   moni toring of human rights violations in Western countries, and added
   that the ministry would actively pursue the case. (Go to top) Radio
   Zamaneh: "Two prisoners on hunger strike receive treatment"

   (Wed, 22 Jun) Two of the 12 Iranian political prisoners on a hunger strike
   in Evin Prison were taken to the infirmary, an opposition website
   reports.Kaleme reports that on the fifth day of their hunger strike,
   Abdollah Momeni and Abolfazl Ghadiani were sent to the infirmary after a
   sharp decline in their health.The 12 political prisoners began a hunger
   strike to protest the recent deaths of two other political prisoners,
   Haleh Sahabi and Reza Hoda Saber, and the authorities' alleged role in
   their demise.Haleh Sahabi died during a furlough from prison when security
   forces overran her father's funeral.Reza Hoda Saber began a hunger strike
   to protest Sahabi's death and died 10 days later. His fellow inmates say
   he was badly beaten on the eighth day of his strike, and th e prison
   authorities are also accused of delaying his transfer to hospital after
   the onset of his symptoms.The authorities deny any wrongdoing and claim
   both prisoners died naturally from heart attacks.Abdollah Momeni was
   arrested in the protests that sprang up following the disputed re-election
   of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2009. He is a prominent student activist and
   active in the "Free Citizens Election Headquarters" supporting opposition
   leader Mehdi Karroubi.In the aftermath of the 2009 election protests many
   political activists were arrested. Momeni was sentence to almost five
   years in prison. Karroubi, one of the chief challengers of Ahmadinejad's
   victory, is currently under house arrest with his wife.Abolfazl Ghadiani,
   at 65, is reportedly the oldest political prisoner in Evin Prison and he
   suffers from heart complications.Ghadiani is also a prominent reformist
   and was arrested during the Ashura Day protests against the 2009
   presidential election.The other 10 p olitical prisoners on hunger strike
   at Evin are also prominent political activists and journalists, and in the
   past week several Iranian political figures and human rights advocates
   have urged them to end their strike over concern for their health. (Go to
   top) Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA): "Imprisoned Student, Ali
   Ajami, Beaten and Battered" (Wed, 22 Jun) On the morning of June 22, 2011,
   for an unknown reason, the assistant warden of Rajai-Shahr Prison in Karaj
   beat and battered Ali Ajami in the prison's medical clinic.According to a
   report by Human Rights Activists for Democracy in Iran, Ali Ajami who is a
   leftist activist had gone to the prison hospital for medical care. While
   there, the Assistant Warden Khadem severely beat and battered Ali
   Ajami.Once Ali Ajami returned to his prison cell in Ward 4, Hall 12, other
   prisoners having seen his bruises and injuries protested by demanding a
   public apology from the Assistant Warden Khadem. The prisoners a lso
   refused to accept their daily food ration.The current assistant warden in
   Rajai-Shahr Prison is one of the known interrogators and tortures in this
   prison and in the recent years, has held various posts such as the
   director of ward 1, the director of prison's intelligence agency and most
   recently the assistant warden.Some time ago, while two defenseless
   prisoners, Hussein Qazvini and Godarzi, were being held in isolation cells
   in Ward 1 of Rajai-Shahr Prison, the Assistant Warden Khadem tortured and
   beat them such that as a result, he broke their legs.When the Assistant
   Warden Khadem was the director of intelligence agency in Rajai-Shahr
   Prison, he raped and impregnated a female officer. For this reason, he was
   fired from his job and transferred to Ghezel Hesar Prison for a while. (Go
   to top) HRANA: "Siamak Koshi, Student Activist, Expelled" (Wed, 22 Jun)
   Siamak Koshi, a student activist, has been expelled from Tabriz Azad
   University after his release from pr ison.According to a report by Human
   Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), the Office of Student Affairs at
   Tabriz Azad Un iversity has sent an official letter to Siamak Koshi to
   inform him that he has been expelled from this university. No reason was
   given for his expulsion.On May 20, 2011, Siamak Koshi, a Mechanical
   Engineering student, was arrested by Iran's Intelligence Agency and
   charged with propaganda against the regime. (Go to top) SCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY
   Press TV: "Iran to test 'National Internet'"

   (Wed, 22 Jun) In an effort to provide Iranians with higher-bandwidth
   internet access, Iran is set to test its "National Internet" with the help
   of a limited number of users.On Wednesday, Iran's Minister of
   Communications and Information Technology Reza Taqipour said the project's
   "Phase Zero" would be launched and become operational within the next two
   weeks, IRNA reported."In light of the promises to increase internet
   bandwidth, this project will be tested on some users until its next phases
   become operational based on the commitments of the Fifth (Five-Year
   Economic) Development Plan," the minister said.The five-year plan is part
   of the Islamic Republic's long-term roadmap for sustainable growth.Also
   known as the "Clean Web," the initiative seeks protection against the
   loose commitment to ethics and morality across the World Wide Web.The
   project is aided by several think tanks, which have been set up to analyze
   it from different aspects."The starting point of a clean web will be Iran
   and then it will be offered to all humanity," Taqipour said in
   February.Tehran has also undertaken a project to develop a national search
   engine dubbed "Ya Haq" by early 2012, which can be accessed through the
   domestic intranet. Related:

   http://presstv.com/detail/167106.html Iran plans to introduce 'Clean Web'

   http://presstv.com/detail/184774.html Iran to launch first cyber command

   http://presstv.com/detail/69337.html Iran 17th in world Internet use (Go
   to top) SOCIAL/RELIGION IRNA: "'More assistance for refugees in Iran' "

   (Thu, 23 Jun) Tehran - Refugees in Iran are to receive more assistance in
   the fields of health, skills training and repatriation.A euro-2,000,000
   contribution by the European Commission (EC) will enable UNHCR to further
   facilitate the voluntary and sustainable repatriation of Afghan refugees
   from Iran in safety and dignity and to provide vulnerable Afghan refugees
   with life saving treatment and medical assistance, skill training and
   legal assistance amongst other

   services. UNHCR will also make sure that through mass information
   campaigns refugees make well-informed decisions when it comes to
   repatriation.A recent dlrs 475,000 contribution by Australia will make it
   possible for UNHCR to provide Afghan and Iraqi refugees with more
   assistance such as medicines and vaccines, more access to physic ians,
   midwives and community health workers, plus better equipped health houses.
   When it comes to secondary and tertiary healthcare for vulnerable
   refugees, UNHCR will be able to provide a greater number with insurance
   for the three special diseases of Heamophilia, Thalassaemia and renal
   failure; an area which will also be covered by the EC contribution when it
   comes to vulnerable Afghan refugees in Iran.Bernard Doyle, UNHCR
   Representative in Iran said, "UNHCR is very grateful for all generous
   contributions it has received. These contributions come at a time when
   Iran who has been hosting the second largest population of refugees in the
   world for over thirty years is in need of assistance in baring this
   burden. Now the negative impact of removal of subsidies on basic
   commodities and petroleum is starting to show on the situation of
   vulnerable and destitute refugees in Iran."Based on available statistics,
   there are slightly over one million Afghan registered refugee s and some
   42.000 Iraqi registered refugees residing in Iran. (Go to top) IRNA: "4
   die in firing on Shia pilgrims bus in Pakistan"

   (Wed, 22 Jun) Islamabad - Unidentified gunmen Wednesday opened fire on a
   bus, carrying Shia Muslim pilgrims, in Pakistan's southwestern city of
   Quetta, and killed four people, police and witnesses said.The pilgrims
   were heading to the border city of Taftan for their onward journey to Iran
   for religious rituals, police said.Witnesses said that 11 persons were
   also injured in the attack at Akhtar Abad area of Quetta, the capital of
   Balochistan province. Police said that around 28 persons were on board
   when they came under attack.The gunmen fled after the shooting.No group
   claimed responsibility but Shia groups blame rival banned extremist group
   for such sectarian attacks.There has been target attacks on Shia Muslims
   in Balochistan in recent days.Last week gunmen shot dead a former
   medal-holder former Olympian and senior government officer,Ibrar Hussain,
   in Quetta in sectarim-motivated attack. Banned militant group
   'Lashkar-e-Jhangvi' had taken responsibility for the attack.Scores of Shia
   Muslims rushed to the hospital and chanted slogans against the sectarian
   group and the police for failure to curb sectarian attacks.Shia leaders
   condemned the attack and said that sectarian elements are to destabilize
   the country and also create rift in the ranks of Muslims. They called upon
   the people to calm and help thwart plots hatched by the sectarian
   elements. (Go to top) IRNA: "Muslim organization urges Tajik govt to
   withdraw anti-religious bill" (Wed, 22 Jun) New Delhi - President of
   Jamaat-e-

   45) Back to Top
   Chicago To Host G8, NATO Summits in 2012
   Xinhua by Ted Regencia: "Chicago To Host G8, NATO Summits in 2012" -
   Xinhua
   Thursday June 23, 2011 0 7:13:35 GMT
   CHICAGO, June 22 (Xinhua) -- Chicago, the hometown of U.S. President
   Barack Obama, will welcome world leaders to this city by the lake as it
   will host the Group of Eight (G8) and NATO summits next year.

   "Next May, in Chicago, we will host a summit with our NATO allies and
   partners to shape the next phase of this transition," Obama said Wednesday
   in a televised speech to the nation announcing the complete withdrawal of
   100,000 American combat troops from Afghanistan by 2014.The two events
   from May 15 to 22 will put Chicago on the international stage, as the
   world's most powerful nations meet together to discuss the future of
   Afghanistan, NATO and the Middle East among other global issues.The news
   is a major boost to the third largest American city, which lost its bid to
   host the 2016 Olympics and has seen a decline in the number of tourists
   last year."This will be an opportunity to showcase wha t is great about
   the greatest city in the greatest country," new Chicago mayor Rahm Emanuel
   told WLS Radio. Emanuel, who served as Obama's chief of staff before
   running for mayor, said the event is good for the city's economy.Former
   ambassador J.D. Bindenagel told Xinhua that Obama's decision to hold the
   two summits here "is a recognition of the important global role that
   Chicago plays both in security issues and economic issues.""Particularly
   in the global economy, Chicago is a critical actor," said Bindenagel,
   while emphasizing that the more urgent issue is to reach a diplomatic and
   negotiated settlement in the armed conflict in Afghanistan, an issue that
   will be front and center in the two summits next year."As a former
   American ambassador and diplomat, it is hard to see how any kind of
   agreement can happen unless you're talking with the enemy," Bindenagel
   said, when asked whether it is appropriate for the United States to talk
   to the Ta liban, a major political and military player in Afghanistan."An
   agreement can't be made with only one side. It has to be both sides," said
   Bindenagel, currently the vice president for Community, Government and
   International Affairs at Chicago's De Paul University. "The ability of
   both sides to come to the table and to resolve the violent conflict and to
   set the framework for peace is a critical element."Bindenagel, however,
   said that he will leave it up to the president and the military to
   determine the timing of the talks.The future of Afghanistan and the role
   of NATO in foreign armed conflicts are closely tied to America's current
   economic instability, said Professor David Cortright, director of policy
   studies at the University of Notre Dame's Kroc Institute for International
   Peace Studies in Indiana.Cortright told Xinhua that it is "interesting" to
   see Chicago as a backdrop to the summits, considering that many
   communities surrounding the cit y "are suffering because of the economic
   slowdown and the recession.""I would hope that the issues addressed there
   (Chicago) would include how to scale back excessive military spending in
   the United States," said Cortright, author of the book "Ending Obama's
   War: Responsible Military Withdrawal from Afghanistan.""The focus now
   needs to be on improving the economic condition of the society and of the
   state more than building up military means per se," added Cortright, who
   testified before Congress last month about the impact of the Afghan war on
   women.In pushing for his argument, Cortright recalled the late U.S.
   President Dwight Eisenhower, a World War II general, who observed "that
   the true security of a state is not measured by the number of tanks and
   aircraft but by the vitality and strength of the economy and the unity of
   the nation."With the recent economic turmoil, the United States may seem
   strong with a large military "but the underlying basis and foundation for
   true national strength is eroding," he added.In his own speech last
   Wednesday, Obama himself tackled the issue head-on, saying: "America, it
   is time to focus on nation building here at home.""Over the last decade,
   we have spent a trillion dollars on war, at a time of rising debt and hard
   economic times. Now, we must invest in America's greatest resource -- our
   people," the president said.Meanwhile, Cortright said that the Chicago
   NATO summit provides an opportunity for the United States to reassess its
   role in NATO, saying that its level of military expenditure is far too
   high relative to the state of the U.S. economy."NATO is still valuable as
   a security organization for the region Europe, so I wouldn't recommend
   withdrawing from that," Cortright said. But he added that the United
   States needs to clearly define its role in NATO so it will not be dragged
   into every military conflict around t he world.(Description of Source:
   Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for
   English-language audiences (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   46) Back to Top
   Xinhua 'Roundup': Afghan Public Shows Mixed Reaction Towards U.S. Forces
   Pulling Out
   Xinhua "Roundup": "Afghan Public Shows Mixed Reaction Towards U.S. Forces
   Pulling Out" - Xinhua
   Thursday June 23, 2011 06:48:19 GMT
   KABUL, June 23 (Xinhua) -- While U.S. President Barack Obama announced
   Thursday to begin pulling out U.S. troops from Afghanistan in next July,
   the war-weary Afgha ns have shown mixed reaction towards the decision.

   "The decision will not change the course of the war and will not convince
   the Taliban to give up fighting. In the presence of the U.S. and allied
   forces, we have suffered, and would continue to suffer in their absence,"
   taxi driver Mohammad Musa in Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, told
   Xinhua on Thursday morning.He also doubted U.S. war on Taliban and troops
   drawing down, saying "The United States can withdraw a few hundred
   soldiers this morning and it can bring a few thousand tomorrow night if it
   likes to do so."A student of Kabul University Mohammad Khan said that "the
   U.S. forces withdrawal from Afghanistan would bolster Taliban morale in
   fighting NATO-led forces in Afghanistan.""Taliban-led insurgency like the
   past few years would continue in the years to come and it makes no
   difference how many foreign soldiers withdraw or how many are deployed,
   because it is a major game and the U.S. is a major stockholder in the
   game," Khan believed.President Obama announced on Thursday that 10,000
   U.S. troops will leave Afghanistan by the end of this year and another
   23,000 will go home by September 2012."Pulling out troops is a positive
   sign that at least the night raids by foreign forces and harming civilians
   will be decreased in Afghanistan," Bashir Khan, a passerby in Kabul city,
   told Xinhua."It is for the Afghan government to ensure security for its
   citizens and above all it is for the international partners of Afghanistan
   to support Afghan national security forces in order to enable them to
   independently defend the country's interest," the 38-years old said."The
   forces of America and other countries should leave Afghanistan, but before
   leaving they should give more equipment and enough training to Afghan
   security forces at the level to defend the country's boundaries," said a
   roadside vender Mohammad Azam aged 26.He als o was of the view that
   "American forces withdrawal would decrease sensitivity towards foreign
   troops based in Afghanistan."(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in
   English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences
   (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   47) Back to Top
   Xinhua 'Roundup': 'Obama Lays Out Afghanistan Troops Drawdown'
   Xinhua "Roundup": "Obama Lays Out Afghanistan Troops Drawdown" - Xinhua
   Thursday June 23, 2011 06:27:05 GMT
   (Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news
   service fo r English-language audiences (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   48) Back to Top
   ROK Government Said 'Worried' About Rise in Rocket Attacks on ROK's Afghan
   Base - Chosun Ilbo Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 05:25:26 GMT
   Korea's Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) base was built 6 km east of
   the Parwan provincial government office in Charikar in July last year.
   About 500 Korean engineers and security forces are staying there.Most of
   the rockets originated from a village just 1 km from the base, but the
   Korean military has failed to identify who fired them.Korea's 350-strong
   Oshino unit, which is in charge of security at the base, has been unable
   to do its job. Instead, it relies on U.S. special forces at the nearby
   Bagram base for its outer area security. But as rocket attacks increased,
   U.S. special forces have often not arrived in time.The Korean government
   has reportedly instructed troops to stay inside the base in case of any
   resistance or attacks from local residents. The Afghan central and Parwan
   provincial governments have promised to do their best, but the situation
   is worsening.Most of the rocket attacks on the PRT were apparently caused
   by conflicts among local security companies, Korean government officials
   say. Last year when the PRT began its activities, the Korean government
   selected a local security firm that has close connections with senior
   officials at the Afghan central government. But it turned out that these
   officials do not have much say in Parwan, and Korea has been pressured
   several times to hire the services of a firm that has ties with local
   influential people.Before it dispatched the troops to Afghanistan, Seoul
   saw Charikar as a safe zone, but it has recently classified the region as
   a "grey area" that may have ties with the Taliban.A diplomatic source
   said, "Nobody can rule out that some residents in Charikar are shooting
   rockets for money."The situation could worsen further when the U.S. begins
   preparations next month to pull troops out of some regions. Korea's PRT is
   supposed to stay there until December next year.

   (Description of Source: Seoul Chosun Ilbo Online in English -- English
   website carrying English summaries and full translations of vernacular
   hard copy items of the largest and oldest daily Chosun Ilbo, which is
   conservative in editorial orientation -- strongly nationalistic,
   anti-North Korea, and generally pro-US; URL: http://english.chosun.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permissio n for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   49) Back to Top
   Bolivia Press 23 June 11
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Bolivia -- OSC Summary
   Thursday June 23, 2011 14:37:33 GMT
   -- In its editorial, La Paz La Prensa looks at the Brazilian Foreign
   Ministry's allegation that the current amnesty for undocumented cars in
   Bolivia is rewarding organized crime and legalizing car theft. The
   Chilean, Argentine, Brazilian, and Paraguayan Governments have all
   expressed anger and concern over the increased number of vehicles being
   stolen in their countries allegedly to be sold in Bolivia. The editor asks
   if the amnesty will not only damage Bolivia 's image abroad and increase
   fuel subsidy costs and carbon dioxide emissions, but also negatively
   impact future relations with neighboring countries. (La Paz La Prensa.com
   in Spanish -- Digital version of conservative daily with modest
   circulation. Owned by Editores Asociados, S.A., member of the Grupo Lider
   media conglomerate which also includes PAT (Periodistas Asociados de
   Television), television network recently acquired by the Daher family of
   Santa Cruz; URL: http:/www.laprensa.com.bo/) Government Prepares To
   Withdraw From Vienna Convention

   -- La Paz La Razon reports the Chamber of Deputies voted yesterday to
   approve a bill to contest the UN Single Convention on Narcotics Drugs
   Convention, marking the start of Bolivia's withdrawal from the Vienna
   Convention to defend coca chewing. Foreign Minister David Choquehuanca
   justified the decision inasmuch as the Bolivian Political Constitution
   defends the custom of chewing coca leaves, which is banned by the
   Convention. Opposition lawmakers criticized the bill yesterday, warning
   that it sent a very negative message which would have future consequences
   for Bolivia. Meanwhile, Chamber of Deputies President Hector Arce said the
   bill "should not worry anyone" because it did not mean that the country
   would not continue its fight against the drug trade. (La Paz La Razon
   Online in Spanish -- Digital version of moderate, centrist daily with
   generally balanced coverage of government and opposition; sold by Spanish
   media conglomerate Prisa to Carlos Gil, Venezuelan banker and media
   investor reportedly connected to President Chavez; date of sale uncertain;
   URL:

   http://www.la-razon.com/ http://www.la-razon.com )

   Los Tiempos photo of Foreign Minister Choquehuanca speaking in the Chamber
   of Deputies Congress Officially Rejects Chile's Treatment of Bolivian
   Soldiers

   -- La Paz La Razon reports that the lower house approved a declaration
   yesterday stating: "The Chamber of Deputies declares its profound
   indignation and rejection for the treatment to which members of the
   Bolivian Armed Forces were subjected by judicial officials and police
   officers from the Republic of Chile." In a related item, La Razon reports
   that Chamber of Deputies President Hector Arce said that legislators had
   declined an invitation to attend the Chilean Congress's bicentennial
   celebrations because of the way Bolivian soldiers were treated after being
   arrested for suspected car theft in Chile. MAS Dissidents Announce Plans
   To Create Alternative Political Party

   -- La Paz La Razon reports that a group of Movement Toward Socialism (MAS)
   dissidents, including former Deputy Land Minister Alejandro Almaraz and
   former union leader Oscar Olivera, held a press conference yesterday to
   announce plans to form a new political party. Bolivian, Venezuelan Joint
   Force Concludes Engineering Works in Northern La Paz

   -- Bolivian Government News Agency (ABI) reports that Juan Ramon Quintana,
   director of the Agency for the Development of Macroregions and Border
   Areas (ADEMAF) said yesterday that the Bolivian-Venezuelan Binational
   Social Engineering Force had completed works in San Buenaventura
   municipality. He said that the force would now work in Ixiamas and Tacana
   de Tumupusa. La Paz Governor Cesar Cocarico explained: "We are building an
   Amazonian region with industrial and tourist potential, creating a
   different future that will not only transform the economy of La Paz, but
   of our country." (La Paz Agencia Boliviana de Informacion in Spanish --
   Website of government-owned news agency also known by acronym ABI; URL:

   http://www3.abi.bo/ http://www3.abi.bo/ ) Former FELCN Director Sanabria
   Allegedly To Plead Guilty

   -- Cochabamba Los Tiempos reports that General Rene Sanabria, former
   director of the Special Antinarcotics Force (FELCN), plans to plead guilty
   to charges of attempting to introduce cocaine into the United States when
   he appears in court in Miami today. (Cochabamba Los Tiempos.com in Spanish
   -- Website of conservative newspaper with widest circulation in
   Cochabamba, owned by the Canelas family. Published in partnership with the
   Rivero family, member of the Grupo Lider media conglomerate which also
   includes PAT (Periodistas Asociados de Television) television network,
   owned by the Daher family of Santa Cruz; URL:

   http://www.lostiempos.com/ http://www.lostiempos.com ) Daily: Peru's
   Humala's 'Dream' Raises Concerns in Chile, Peru

   -- Cochabamba Los Tiempos reports on Chilean and Peruvian reaction to
   Peruvian President-elect Ollanta Humala's expressed "dream" of a
   Bolivian-Peruvian Confederation. YPFB Invites Oil Companies To Invest

   -- Cochabamba Los Tiempos reports that, at an international oil conference
   in London yesterday, Carlos Villegas, Bolivian Government Oil Deposits
   (YPFB) president, invited oil companies to invest in Bolivia, within "a
   context of legal security and solid ground rules." Editorial Looks at
   Peru's Humala's 'Necessary Visit'

   -- Cochabamba Los Tiempos, in its editorial, described Peruvian
   President-elect Humala's recent visit as a "necessary visit" to "make up
   for what could be seen as an inappropriate decision of not including the
   country (Bolivia) in his first tour" and to reaffirm "political, personal
   and historic affinities". The editor highlights President Evo Morales and
   Humala's commitment to work together to enhance development in their
   shared border region and concludes that Humala's visit "can be described
   as successful". Santa Cruz Governor Expresses Party's Presidential
   Pretentions

   -- Santa Cruz El Deber reports that the Truth and Social Democracy
   (Verdes) political group confirmed Santa Cruz Governor Ruben Costas
   yesterday as their maximum leader and announced plans to become a
   political party to qualify to participate in the 2014 presidential
   elections. Costas said that the Verdes was the first regional party that
   would seek to build the future without political persecution or human
   rights violations. "The MAS has given rise to an inefficient, corrupt,
   incompetent political class, which has stopped the country from getting
   aboard the development train at a time when Latin America is taking
   gigantic steps towards growth," Costas said. (Santa Cruz de la Sierra
   eldeber.com.bo in Spanish -- Website of conservative, influential,
   pro-business, regional newspaper with the most prestige and widest
   circulation nationwide. Owned by the Rivero family, member of the Grupo
   Lider media conglomerate which also includes PAT (Periodistas Asociados de
   Television) television network, recently acquired by the Daher family of
   Santa Cruz; URL:

   http://www.eldeber.com.bo/ http://www.eldeber.com.bo )

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permissio n for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   50) Back to Top
   The Need For Nuclear Power Strategy
   "Viewpoint" column by Kim Kyung-min, a professor of political science and
   diplomacy at Hanyang University: "The Need For Nuclear Power Strategy" -
   Korea JoongAng Daily Online
   Friday June 24, 2011 01:22:36 GMT
   How is Japan doing 100 days after the tsunami and the nuclear accident at
   the Fukushima plant? After one hour and 40 minutes on the bullet train
   from Tokyo and a 40 minute taxi ride, I arrived at the Hamaoka Nuclear
   Power Plant on the Pacific coast.Major earthquakes of 8.0 magnitude or
   higher occur every 100 to 150 years in the sea near the power plant, which
   is operated by Chubu Electric Power Co. There has not been a major
   earthquake there since 1854, so there is growing anxiety that another
   devastating natural disaster will occur anytime.Prime Minister Naoto Kan
   recently requested reactors 4 and 5 at Hamaoka be shut down. With the
   suspension of the Hamaoka power plant, Toyota's nearby manufacturing plant
   has been affected. The fatal blow in the Fukushima nuclear accident was
   when seawater flooded the nuclear reactors and the emergency system that
   cools down the reactors. The failure of the cooling system made the
   situation even more serious.In order to not repeat that painful mistake,
   the Hamaoka Nuclear Power Plant installed a new emergency power generator
   to make sure the cooling system would operate even when the nuclear
   reactor is submerged. There are 54 nuclear reactors in Japan, generating
   29 percent of the country's total electricity. However, after the
   Fukushima accident, other power plants have suspended operations, and the
   country's nucl ear power generation will be reduced.Japan's energy
   production is made up of 64 percent from fossil fuels, 29 percent from
   nuclear energy, 6 percent from hydroelectric energy and 1 percent from
   other renewable energy. Prime Minister Kan proposed to expand the
   production of renewable energy, such as solar energy, from 1 percent to 20
   percent to make up for the short energy supply, but many people don't
   think the idea is at all plausible.A more realistic solution lies in
   Japan's plan to build more liquefied natural gas power plants to produce
   up to 49 percent of the total energy, from 30 percent today. However, the
   question is securing stable supplies of liquefied natural gas as demand
   rapidly increases. Since it takes time to build the power stations, people
   in Japan are expected to conserve energy this summer, cutting down on the
   use of air-conditioning.The Three Mile Island accident in the United
   States and the Chernobyl disaster in Ukraine were the results of human
   error, providing the impetus to prepare emergency measures and develop
   safe ways to generate nuclear power. The Fukushima nuclear accident
   provides an opportunity to think and plan for natural disasters. We should
   learn from the disaster and devise a system and technological advancements
   for the safe operation of nuclear power plants.The Fukushima nuclear
   accident brought many challenges for Japan, such as radiation
   contamination and compensation for victims. At the same time, Japan wants
   to continue nuclear power generation by supplementing existing safety
   measures as the United States and France do. It would be nearly impossible
   to supply electricity smoothly and maintain the country's world-class
   industrial capacity if Japan drops nuclear power and opts for other
   means.Just as when Korea was taking a step toward global leadership in
   nuclear power generation through its export of a nuclear power plant to
   the United Arab Emirates, the industry was taken aback by the Fukushima
   acci dent.But a crisis doesn't only end as a crisis. It brings
   opportunities as well. Japan had been one of Korea's competitors in
   nuclear power generation, but while Japan focuses its strength on putting
   its post-tsunami situation under control, Korea needs to cooperate with
   the United States and implement a future-oriented nuclear strategy to be
   at the forefront of nuclear power in the world, one that had been
   dominated by France and Japan.(Description of Source: Seoul Korea JoongAng
   Daily Online in English -- Website of English-language daily which
   provides English-language summaries and full-texts of items published by
   the major center-right daily JoongAng Ilbo, as well as unique reportage;
   distributed with the Seoul edition of the International Herald Tribune;
   URL: http://joongangdaily.joins.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   51) Back to Top
   US Envoy Tells B-H Presidency Chair Dodik Must Step Down by Year's End
   Report by I. Maric: "Moon Told Radmanovic That Milorad Dodik Must Go" -
   Dnevni List
   Thursday June 23, 2011 11:28:02 GMT
   This confirms our newspaper reports about Dodik's departure from the
   political scene. Although the public was only briefly informed that the
   two politicians had talked about the formation of the Council of
   Ministers, the truth is that many more topics were discussed at the
   meeting. Reasons for Dismissal

   Particular emphasis was laid on Dodik's dismissal, which was demanded by
   the international community. The removal of the Serb Republic president
   from the political scene would create the much-needed maneuvering roo m
   for B-H's further progress on its European path. Aware that Dodik is
   nothing but a hindrance and that he will continue to grate on their
   nerves, they decided that something needs to be done with regard to
   Dodik's future career. Russians Let Him Down

   As we have already reported, the decision to unseat the RS president had
   been made earlier, at the meeting of the political directors of the Peace
   Implementation Council (PIC). Moon has just conveyed the information to
   Radmanovic.

   It is interesting that, at the PIC meeting, the Russians were not against
   Dodik's dismissal. As in typical bargaining, they refrained from
   supporting the RS president in exchange for certain financial benefits.

   Further obstructions to the formation of government at the B-H level,
   which seem increasingly likely, could be the last straw for world's power
   wielders as far as Dodik is concerned. This is because the project devised
   by the international community, particularly the US Administration, that
   envisions the strengthening of the state governing bodies simply must not
   be allowed to fail.

   (Description of Source: Mostar Dnevni List in Bosnian/Croatian/Serbian --
   B-H Croat daily published in Mostar)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   52) Back to Top
   Syrian Press 23 Jun 11
   The following lists selected items from the Syrian press on 23 June. To
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735. - Syria -- OSC Summary
   Thursday June 23, 2011 19:38:20 GMT
   Indicating that President al-Asad is, "as many hav e said, the first
   reformer in Syria, and the first opponent too," and that he did not ever
   hide the presence of difficulties, and the defects in the work of many
   state bodies," Abd-Rabbuh affirms that "it is the duty of every Syrian
   today to determine his choices regarding the homeland that he looks
   forward to seeing, as what was a dream for some in the past might become a
   reality tomorrow, and this requires engagement in dialogue, and in
   determining which Syria all of us are looking forward to seeing. But in
   all cases, Syria will be civilized, based on the values of openness,
   tolerance, and love, and not on difference, backwardness, extremism, and
   the fatwas of 'shaykhs' who live in the Stone Age."He concludes: "The hope
   now is that every Syrian participates in the making of this republic, and
   exercises his citizenship in all positivity; and what we wish of the
   opposition is effective participation in the national dialogue, that it
   expresses its opi nion, perception, and (proposes) the mechanisms to move
   from today's Syria, to the Syria of tomorrow, as the train of reform has
   moved at a speed that stunned many, and no one at home or abroad can stop
   it."(Description of source: Damascus Al-Watan Online in Arabic -- Website
   of the independent daily; URL:

   http://www.alwatan.sy/ http://www.alwatan.sy ) "Syria in the Future" II.
   In a 373-word article in Al-Watan entitled "Syria in the Future," Ziyad
   Haydar, reacting to the Syrian foreign minister's news conference
   yesterday, writes: "Foreign Minister Walid al-Mu'allim warmed the hearts
   of Syrians by coloring the Syrian picture of the future. Al-Mu'allim did
   not speak about years or months, but weeks that are sufficient for draft
   laws (that are changing the path of the state) to make their way toward a
   democratic horizon governed by the law under which everyone is equal."The
   writer adds: "The colors of al-Mu'allim that President B ashar al-Asad
   previously placed in their broad context (were the ones that) the Syrian
   citizen longed to hear, because the local and foreign satellite channels
   have tortured us, and made us, in the beginning, prisoners of two warring
   colors; and it seemed for a moment as if Syria was without horizon. This
   morale-raising talk expands the Syrian horizon, and strengthens the hopes
   for the future, but perhaps the most prominent thing that it includes is
   that it offers a form of Syria, the specifications of which might not be
   welcomed by the other Arab regimes."Haydar continues: "Although we must
   not besiege the minister with the deadline that was assumed in the
   question (posed to him in the news conference), and was included in his
   answer, when he talked about a democratic Syria within three months, where
   everyone is equal under the law, and one that will be dominated by social
   justice, because the speed at which the pace of reform is happening, no
   doubt suggests that such a deadline might be sufficient to position the
   country in the category of countries that are marching on the road of
   political democracy. Morale should remain high then. It must be remembered
   also that we are still between the waves of the crisis, so the captain
   cannot rest. Or the sailors."The writer notes: "Today's battle might end,
   but bigger battles lie ahead tomorrow, particularly on the road of getting
   introduced to the new aspects of life, and factors of competition that
   will arise, as well as the oral conflicts that will occupy the pages and
   screens of the media tools. We are entering a complex phase rather than a
   simple one, but we are treading the first thresholds of the escape routes
   toward the future that is positively uncertain." He concludes: "And
   because this spirit is required for the future, we should expect, as
   Syrians, a national opposition, or an established authority, and, between
   the two, attempts t hat will be made to break thi s spirit in one way or
   another. And we will not be surprised if every Friday there is an attempt
   to this end; and always here, as an imperative, we exclude those who come
   out to express an opinion under the roof of extremism, provided they do
   not trample on the 'view' of others." "They Have Mistaken the Time and the
   Place" III. In a 300-word article in Tishrin entitled "They Have Mistaken
   the Time and the Place," Izz-al-Din Darwish writes: "Anyone who reads what
   is behind these hostile European positions that are outside all customs,
   traditions, and political and diplomatic disciplines toward Syria can
   deduce that this escalation in positions is directly linked to the
   frustration that they have suffered as a result of the failure of the plot
   masterminded against Syria."He elaborates: "The Europeans, and at their
   forefront the French and the British, built their positions from the
   outset on the basis that Syria will collapse in front of this huge
   political, financial media -- and even on the level of providing weapons
   -- pumping against it, and that things will go their way, but nothing of
   this sort happened; so they were shocked, and fumbled in their positions."
   "It is clear," Darwish says, "that these (countries) have been mistaken
   100 percent in choosing the place and the time, as Syria has reached a
   stage of immunity that cannot be penetrated, and it has strong and
   sometimes strategic relationships and friendships in the international
   arena; it has also its distinctive Arab, and regional status, in addition
   to the fact that its resistant approach constitutes its most powerful
   weapon in the face of aggressors, predators, and conspirators."Indicating
   that, "in any case, we can say that Syria has overcome the crisis, and
   begun the phase of counterattack, which will sweep all the accumulations
   that occurred on the ground," the writer concludes: "Let them, and their m
   edia, say whatever they want of misinformation, and let them also pay
   whatever they want of money to the scum of Syria, those fugitives from
   justice who call themselves the opposition, and pose as academics while
   they have not completed primary schooling, as they are the losers in the
   end, while the 23 million Syrians are all convinced that the crisis is
   over, although some of them abroad insist on barking."(Description of
   source: Damascus Tishrin Online in Arabic -- Website of the
   government-owned newspaper; URL:

   http://tishreen.info/ http://tishreen.info ) Colette Khoury: "I Feel
   Personally Offended When I Hear the West Talking About Syria"

   IV. In a 738-word report in Al-Watan entitled "Homeland Has one Concept
   That Does not Vary, Namely, That It Is Above Everyone, and Everyone Needs
   it. Colette Khoury: I feel Personally Offended When I Hear the West
   Talking About Syria," Ali al-Hasan quotes the Syrian novelist and poet,
   Colette Khou ry, saying: "'There is no time for quarrels, rivalry, or
   revenge, as what is happening in the country is bigger than a conspiracy.
   It is real aggression, and the priority is to get rid of external
   aggression, then devote time to the positives and negatives.'"The report
   adds: "This is what was emphasized by the writer, Colette Khoury, on the
   sidelines of a media talk given by the writer, Isma'il Mruwa, that
   addressed the national aspect of Colette Khoury, the human being and the
   novelist. Khoury added that she feels 'personal offense when you hear the
   West talking about Syria,' referring to her sense of pride when she sees
   'the great national unity' shown by the Syrian people against foreign
   interference.'" "Schemes To Partition the Arab World" V. In a 219-word
   article in Al-Thawrah entitled "From Sykes-Picot to the Fragmentation of
   Sudan... (ellipsis as received) Schemes To Partition the Arab World. Same
   Threads With Different Tools," Dr Haydar Haydar writes: " The Arab world
   saw the biggest conspiracy of partition in modern history through the
   colonialist Sykes-Picot Agreement, and the ill-fated Balfour Declaration
   (of 1917) that was the beginning of the tragedy of the Palestinian Arab
   people, and the establishment of the usurper Zionist entity; and so,
   colonialism began the fragmentation of the Arab region from the beginning
   of the 20th century."The writer adds: "It is abundantly clear that
   partition, occupation, and fragmentation are constant colonial objectives
   through which the colonialists seek to fabricate thin and weak states that
   are easy to control, and thus to loot the wealth of the Arabs, and ensure
   the security of their Zionist entity that they have imposed on our Arab
   nation." Haydar considers that "the Western-Zionist conspiracy continues
   today, wearing a new dress, and witnessing successive chapters that
   started with the occupation of Iraq, and the frantic effort t o partition
   it, and fragment it, then they spread to Sudan to dismember it; the
   conspiratorial episodes continue to include the whole Arab world."He
   affirms that "they are desperate today to execute their conspiratorial
   scheme against Syria, and the rest of the Arab countries; and of course
   they do not hide their plans, but they publish them in all languages. So,
   will we pay attention to an imminent danger that is surrounding us? We are
   all invited, in all the countries of Arabism, to confront with awareness
   these American-Zionist schemes, and it is essential to have cooperation
   and solidarity to confront the new conspiracy."(Description of source:
   Damascus Al-Thawrah Online in Arabic -- Website of the government-owned
   newspaper; URL:

   http://thawra.alwehda.gov.sy/ http://thawra.alwehda.gov.sy )

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiri es regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   53) Back to Top
   Ecuador Press 22 Jun 11
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Ecuador -- OSC Summary
   Thursday June 23, 2011 19:10:02 GMT
   -- Quito El Comercio on 22 June reports that according to Foreign Minister
   Ricardo Patino the region needs the Community of Latin American and
   Caribbean States (Celac) because the "OAS leaves a lot to be desired." The
   presidents of 33 Latin American and Caribbean countries will meet in
   Caracas, Venezuela on 6 July to approve the Celac charter, and according
   to the report Patino thinks the fact that the United States and Canada
   will not be Celac members "shows that for the first time the decision has
   been ma de for real integration without the interests of the northern
   neighbors predominating." (Quito El Comercio.com in Spanish -- Website of
   prestigious daily owned by Grupo El Comercio C.A.; consistently critical
   of the government; URL:

   http://www.elcomercio.com/ http://www.elcomercio.com ) Correa Deposits
   Over $300,000 in Germany.

   -- Guayaquil El Universo on 22 June reports that the Internal Revenue
   Service (SRI) has confirmed that President Rafael Correa transferred just
   over $330,000 to Germany on 9 August 2010 and paid nearly $9,000 in
   Outgoing Capital Tax (ISD) on the transfer. The SRI released the
   information at the request of legislator Jorge Escala of the Democratic
   People's Movement (MPD) who asked for details of the taxes paid by Correa
   on the $600,000 that he received in damages from the Pichincha Bank, which
   a court ruled had unjustly put him on the country's credit risk list
   before he became president. The report notes that the transfer "cont
   radicts what President Correa has maintained throughout his presidency
   regarding the need to keep funds in the country." (Guayaquil El Universo
   Online in Spanish -- Website of influential daily owned by Grupo El
   Universo C.A.; consistently critical of the government; URL:

   http://eluniverso.com http://eluniverso.com ) Government Signs Agreement
   for Quito Metro Studies.

   -- Guayaquil El Universo on 22 June reports that the government has signed
   an agreement with Quito Municipality by which it will invest nearly $21
   million in studies for a Quito subway system. Studies of the impact that
   earthquakes could have on a subway system in the capital will be of
   particular importance. The studies are due for completion by the first
   quarter of 2012. US writer and researcher Eva Golinger. Photograph: El
   Ciudadano 'Ecuadoran Groups Get CIA Funding to Destabilize Correa,' US
   Researcher Says.

   -- Quito El Ciudadano on 22 June has an ANDES news agency interview with &amp;
   quot;US writer and researcher Eva Golinger" (an American journalist who
   has been living in Venezuela since 2005 and whom Venezuelan President Hugo
   Chavez has called "Venezuela's girlfriend"), who accuses Lourdes Tiban,
   legislator for the Pachakutik movement, the political arm of the
   Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (Conaie), of
   belonging to an organization that has received US funding to destabilize
   the Correa administration. According to Golinger, Tiban "belongs to an
   organization (the Indigenous Business Corporation) that has received funds
   from US agencies such as the NED (National Endowment for Democracy) and
   USAID (US Agency for International Development), which is a financial arm
   of the Department of State. If I am not wrong she belongs to one of those
   groups which has a CIA veteran on its board: Norman Baily. He is a
   well-known veteran of the US intelligence community and he is an advisor
   to that organization, of which she is a founding member." As for the
   destabilization part of the claim, Golinger says that "if they supported
   an action against a democratically-elected government then that is called
   destabilization. How can that be justified? In what occurred on 30
   September, how can you justify that in all the c onfusion certain groups
   came out saying that it was a reason for putting an end to the Rafael
   Correa administration, for him to resign or whatever. That is obviously an
   attempt to destabilize a democratic government. Also, the US agencies that
   finance her organization are already known worldwide for being
   instigators, for encouraging government changes that favor US interests."
   Asked about other Ecuadoran organizations that could be receiving US
   funding to destabilize the Correa administration, Golinger says that
   "there is one that says it is an NGO, which is really a mockery of that
   concept. This organization is called Citizens' Participation. They receive
   direct fina ncing from the Department of State, from the NED, from USAID,
   and they have taken a position against the Correa administration. They
   have for years, before Correa won (the 2006 presidential election), been
   trying to promote an agenda which is basically foreign." Regarding USAID
   itself, Golinger adds that "USAID is a financial agency of the Department
   of State. These are funds directly from the US Government that in most
   cases are directed to political ends. USAID is no longer what it started
   out as: an organization that helps development, with humanitarian aims.
   Now is has political objectives, above all in Latin America." Finally,
   Golinger comments on the Inter-American Press Association's (IAPA's) claim
   that Correa, other left-wing Latin American presidents, and organized
   crime are the greatest threats to freedom of speech in the region. "It is
   ridiculous," she says, "because the IAPA is an organization of media
   owners and chief editors who ho ld power over the news. It is not an
   organization of journalists or of anyone who really exercises free
   speech." (Quito elciudadano.gob.ec in Spanish -- Website of
   government-owned self-described "digital newspaper of the citizen
   revolution;" URL:

   http://www.elciudadano.gov.ec http://www.elciudadano.gov.ec )

   The following media were scanned and no file items were selected:

   (Guayaquil El Telegrafo Online in Spanish -- Website of Ecuador's oldest
   newspaper, now serving as the government's unofficial gazette since its
   takeover in 2007; URL:

   http://www.eltelegrafo.com.ec http://www.eltelegrafo.com.ec )

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   54) Back to Top
   Polish Expert Examines Shale Gas Projects, Warns Against Political Risk
   Commentary by Pawel Poprawa from the Polish Geological Institute (PIG):
   "Between National Interests and High Treason" - rp.pl
   Thursday June 23, 2011 14:28:25 GMT
   For over 20 years, or since communism fell in Central Europe and
   visionaries such as Francis Fukuyama announced the end of history and the
   beginning of an era of harmony, we have been watching geopolitical
   relations in our region follow the deep rifts cut by history. The most
   visible example has been Russia's return to a political drang nach Westen
   (a desire to push toward the West) and ambitions to extend its sphere of
   influence to cover initially the former USSR countries and later also
   other states described as "people's democracies."

   Culturally and economically exhausted by over 80 years of communist rule,
   Russia di d not appear to find tools to pursue its ambitions to become a
   superpower, which were frequently at odds with Poland's national
   interests. Gradually, however, energy resources, chiefly natural gas and
   oil, have assumed the role of the Russian Federation's effective "power of
   arguments" to influence the Central and Eastern European arena. For the
   time being, this process culminated in the "Ukrainian" crisis in the cold
   January of 2009, which indirectly shook a significant portion of Europe.

   The ongoing construction of a Nord Stream pipeline will soon lead to
   substantial changes in our lives and potential gas crises in the future
   may lead to the isolation of such states as Poland. Under the
   circumstances, warm radiators and functional industries, for example in
   the home country of such Gazprom's employees as former (German) Chancellor
   Schroeder, will not make it any easier for the Germans, the Italians or
   the French to sympathize with those who may f ind themselves in the middle
   of cold winter renegotiations of their gas contracts with a monopoly
   supplier. As a member of the EU, we would have the right to rely on
   European energy solidarity. However, today's differences of opinion, for
   example on the purpose and consequences of the Nord Stream pipeline,
   suggest the uncertain future of European energy solidarity. Concerns about
   the future of Central and Eastern Europe's energy security are chiefly
   caused by the fact that those states do not have rich gas deposits. But is
   this really so?

   In the first decade of the 21st century, the enterprising and creative
   Americans proved the existence of earlier unknown huge shale gas deposits
   to the global oil industry. Since 2002, or the drilling of the first
   horizontal well with multiple fracturing in search of shale gas, the
   production of this type of gas has been rising rapidly in the United
   States and later also in Canada, though on a smaller scale. Today, this
   process is re ferred to as a "gas revolution" and is regarded as the most
   important development in the global energy industry in recent decades.
   Shale gas production rose to 20 percent of domestic gas production in the
   United States practically within a decade. The new sources of gas have led
   to an oversupply of gas in the US market, which coincided with the
   economic crisis and reduced demand for gas. Consequently, the price of
   flammable gas on the US market fell from a short-term maximum of $14 to a
   mere $3-4 for one million British thermal units (BTU).

   Needless to say, this drop in gas prices affected the pocketbooks of oil
   companies. However, it also meant very measurable benefits in the form of
   cheap gas for the US economy. It is estimated that the nominal benefits of
   the aforementioned drop in gas prices in the United States exceed the
   total funds spent by the US Administration on efforts to save the banking
   sector and interventions to stimulate the economy during th e recent
   economic crisis.

   The economic consequences of the changes witnessed by the US energy sector
   in the past decade soon assumed a global scale. The United States is
   currently the world's biggest producer of gas. It has even outpaced Russia
   and virtually cease to import gas. This led to a local oversupply of the
   LNG (liquefied natural gas transported by sea) earlier addressed to the US
   market and a drop in LNG prices that was visible in 2008-2009. Ongoing
   globalization in the gas market and a rise in healthy competition caused
   by the US shale revolution have already given Europe not only lower LNG
   prices also a better negotiating position in relations with Gazprom.

   Since the middle of the last decade, the US shale gas revolution has
   gradually expanded on other continents, with Poland unexpectedly becoming
   one the world's most interesting regions in terms of exploration for shale
   gas. Since 2007, the Polish gas rush has attracted the leaders of the
   world's oil industry, including most of the giants from the sector.

   Most of these companies come from the United States and Canada, which
   means the states where shale gas is produced on an industrial scale. Even
   so, a nearly 20 percent slice of the "gas cake" belongs to Polish holdings
   (Polskie Gornictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo (Polish Oil and Gas Company,
   PGNiG) and Orlen), which are ambitiously competing against oil giants in
   the field of what still remains an innovative technology. Over the past
   few years, the exotic concept of shale gas discussed among few
   professionals has become a real offer of changes in energy relations in
   our region.

   What could shale gas give Poland, then? First of all, energy independence.
   It is realistic in that only some of the estimates of huge deposits would
   have to prove accurate when confronted with actual ongoing prospecting. In
   order to achieve this goal, we do not need to produce the anticipated 100
   billion cubic meters of ga s a year. Producing for example 5 billion cubic
   meters would lead to a complete shift in our energy reliance.

   With one-third of our gas consumption needs met by the currently exploited
   conventional deposits, we would gain another third from shale gas
   deposits. The remaining third could be divided flexibly between LNG
   supplies through the gas terminal in Swinoujscie and imports from Russia.
   With underground storage facilities of a relevant capacity, we could not
   only reach gas security but even stabilize the gas market in the region.

   Another benefit from shale gas deposits may be lower gas prices. Although
   shale gas production is related to higher costs than the extraction of gas
   from conventional sources, it is already profitable with a price of around
   $150 for 1,000 cubic meters in the United States in certain basins. In
   Europe, the costs of production will be probably higher in view of a
   different economic culture, including higher taxes, higher labor costs,
   and lower competitiveness in the oil industry.

   According to initial estimates, shale gas production in Poland may cost
   around $300 for 1,000 cubic meters. In the future, however, this figure is
   likely to fall gradually in view of such factors as economies of scale.
   Does this mean that if Poland exploited considerable amounts of shale gas,
   Gazprom could impose a price of $500 for 1,000 cubic meters, as planned
   for December 2011? Of course, not. After all, it is difficult to find a
   product that would influence the whole of the economy to a greater degree
   than energy sources, which are a component of almost every product and
   most of the services. Consequently, affordable energy favors the
   competitiveness of our economy.

   Economic and energy security issues are closely related. It is perfectly
   visible in the structure of prices for the gas imported from Russia by
   individual member states of the EU. Gas imported from Russia may be as
   cheap as $190 per 1,000 cubic met ers in the United Kingdom, where it
   accounts for a mere 9 percent of domestic consumption, or $270 per 1,000
   cubic meters in Germany, where supplies from Gazprom do not exceed the
   safe level of one-third of the market.

   Nonetheless, gas may be also as expensive as $350 per 1,000 cubic meters
   in Poland, where Gazprom controls two-thirds of the market, or even $400
   per 1,000 cubic meters in Slovakia, which is completely reliant on gas
   supplies in Russia. Describing how this translates into greater or lower
   energy security would be a truism. Even so, it is worth remembering in
   what order and to what degree those states were affected by Gazprom's
   decision to cut off supplies to Europe in January 2009. Slovakia found
   itself in a crisis after only several days.

   Nonetheless, there is a far more important benefit, namely the scale of
   financial investments in shale gas production and distribution. Drilling
   wells in Poland alone may mean outlays of several hundred billion zlotys
   within the next decade or so. It is difficult to find an economic project
   that would have a comparable potential impact on the Polish economy.

   If ongoing exploration work proves successful, shale gas will definitely
   stimulate the economy. This is because such funds will not be pumped into
   the secret accounts of managers on the Cayman Islands but will represent
   actual and inevitable costs of intensive investments in the Polish economy
   that largely focus on innovative technologies.

   Other factors behind the costs of shale gas production also include high
   employment, including considerable demand for qualified engineers. This
   may offer such neglected regions with potential shale gas deposits as
   eastern parts of the voivodships of Lubelskie and Mazowieckie or the
   southern part of the Pomorze region a chance to change not only their
   economic structure but also their social structure.

   Economic benefits will be largely visible locally. Today, the most af
   fluent gminas (smallest administrative units) in Poland include those
   linked to brown coal extraction. In the future, this role may be taken
   over by the gminas in the gas El Dorado.

   Potential shale gas production will engage US and Canadian oil giants in
   Poland for decades, thus establishing political ties between Poland and
   those states. Although a factory of TV sets or cars or even the US troops
   and their infrastructure can be transferred abroad withing a short time
   frame in the event of changes in the economic situation, gas deposits,
   production holes, and transmission networks will remain here on a
   permanent basis.

   In the times of a closer strategic partnership between Germany and France
   on the one hand and Russia on the other one, which is not always
   convenient to Poland, powerful political allies from North America may act
   as guarantors of Poland's subjectivity in international relations,
   including our position in the EU. In the energy sector, one current
   example of the difficulty we have achieving this goal independently is
   Germany's decision to build the Nord Stream pipeline across the bottom of
   the Baltic Sea in a way that limits the tonnage of the ships arriving in
   ports in Szczecin and Swinoujscie as well as the future LNG gas terminal.

   The unprecedented boom for exploration for shale gas that Poland has
   experienced in recent years is our great success. As is the case with
   every branch of the economy, there is global rivalry over investments and
   Poland has been so far a spectacular leader in this field, not only
   because of its favorable geological conditions. An extremely important
   factor was the fact that the last two governments have pursued the same
   policy in this field and created security guarantees for long-term
   investments worth many billions of zlotys.

   In view of its potential impact on economic growth in Poland, energy
   security, the strategic transatlantic partnership, and the creation of
   jobs, sh ale gas is becoming one of Poland's national interests.
   Consequently, we must not fail to identify threats to its extraction. The
   possibility of the emergence of considerable gas amounts in Poland and
   potentially also in other countries of Central Europe is a natural source
   of concerns for the existing monopoly on the market, namely Russia.

   Since the Western oil industry is terri fied of "uncountable" sources of
   business risk such as the risk of the lack of social approval, we could
   expect Gazprom to fan public fears, for example on the impact of gas
   exploitation on the natural environment. So far, however, discussions on
   the those issues among environmentalists in Poland are reasonable and very
   professional, which prevents such hysterical reactions as the ones we have
   witnessed for example in France.

   As a result of this situation, we will soon have several dozen drill holes
   in search of shale gas in Poland. This will allow us to decide
   independently who is right on the issue of the environmental costs of
   shale gas production -- the concerned Gazprom or state legislatures in
   southern and central states in the United States together with the
   authorities of the western provinces in Canada, which have permitted
   extraction for over a decade on the basis of the experience gathered
   thanks to several dozen thousand production drill holes.

   "Political risk" tops the list of the alarm bells ringing in the oil
   industry. Such a risk is especially important on the issue of shale gas,
   since investments are frequently worth many billions of zlotys and require
   political stability for several decades. This is why many countries with
   very attractive geological conditions will not manage to attract the
   interest of investors and will not utilize their potential in the
   foreseeable future. Poland's shale gas success largely depends on
   political stability and the predictability of energy policy principles.

   Surprisingly, however, the past year has brought a new threat, namely
   efforts to build the conviction that the last two governments have
   committed high treason by issuing shale gas licenses chiefly to foreign
   companies, which will allegedly lead to Poland's economic "colonization."
   According to those arguments, an alternative is the extraction of
   hydrocarbon deposits by domestic and politically-controlled holdings,
   patterned on the model formerly in place in Norway, currently in China.

   In Poland, however, this concept immediately runs against two barriers
   that are difficult to overcome. One of them is the availability of
   investment funds -- the pool of the licenses held by PGNiG and Orlen
   already requires the engagement of considerable external capital. The
   other is the lack of experience in the exploitation of unconventional
   hydrocarbon deposits.

   Another important factor are legal restrictions that prevent
   differentiation between business entities on the basis of their country of
   origin. For that matter, this is not necessarily disadvantageous to
   Poland. As a result of such rules PGNiG is already present in many regions
   in the world (such as Norway, Denmark, Egypt, Libya and so on) while Orlen
   is planning to enter the shale market in the United States. In every
   civilized country in the world, the map of licenses is a mosaic of
   investors from different countries in the world.

   Likewise, preferential treatment for Polish investors would not offer
   greater protection against a hostile takeover of Polish deposits aimed at
   blocking production. For example, Gazprom cannot buy shares from a dozen
   or so big firms that intend to produce gas in Poland.

   It is easier to imagine that, if PGNiG continued to hold a monopoly on
   shale gas in Poland, it could be taken over by Gazprom given an election
   outcome that would be favorable from the perspective of this holding. The
   past 20 years have witnessed alternate efforts to build gas pipel ines
   alternative to the Russian ones and to prevent such construction, which
   demonstrates the effectiveness of such indirect political influence.

   If the lamentations that Polish shale gas deposits may be taken over by
   the US and Canadian investors are made politically credible, this may work
   as a self-fulfilling prophecy. However, the fact that the authorities may
   question the presence of Western holdings in the Polish market means
   political risk. The oil industry remains especially vulnerable to such a
   risk, which may contribute to the abandonment of planned long-term
   investments and the withdrawal of at least some investors from Poland.

   In such a situation, we will return where we were with our independent
   efforts to prospect for shale gas before 2007-2008, which means nowhere.
   Our potential to exploit such deposits independently will be non-existent,
   just like the position of Polish firms in external international gas
   production markets.

   Consequently, it is difficult to overlook the fact that shale gas
   production is one of Poland's national interests. Sending Western holdings
   away will not help it. Such an isolationist approach is tragic -- although
   it is based on genuine patriotic concerns, it may entail consequences that
   may ultimately mean the violation of Poland's national interests. A thank
   you letter for this situation will be written with the Cyrillic alphabet.
   Pawel Poprawa works for the Polish Geological Institute (PIG) and chairs
   the Oil Exploration Laboratory. For several years, he has been involved in
   prospecting for shale gas in Poland in collaboration with the Western and
   Polish oil industry.

   (Description of Source: Warsaw rp.pl in Polish -- Website of
   Rzeczpospolita, center-right political and economic daily, partly owned by
   state; widely read by political and business elites; paper of record;
   often critical of Donald Tusk's Civic Platform (PO) and sympathetic to
   Jaroslaw Kaczynski's Law and Justice (PiS) party; tends to be skeptical of
   Poland's ties with Russia and positive on US-Polish security ties; urges
   interest in Warsaw's policy toward eastern neighbors; URL:
   http://www.rp.pl)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   55) Back to Top
   Slovak PM Radicova Explains Position on Greece, EU Bailout Facilities
   "ESM and Greece Are Two Different Issues, Says Prime Minister Radicova" --
   SITA headline - SITA Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 22:30:34 GMT
   The prime minister went on to say that it is high time for the euro zone
   to stop turning to the U.S. or the International Monetary Fund with its
   problems. "The old continent should long ago have arrived at this
   solution, as then it would not have been possible for Greece to become a
   euro zone member. If we took criteria seriously, Greece would not have
   crept into the euro zone fraudulently, the consequences of which we see
   here today," she said. Radicova further said that the issue of Greece and
   a new bailout fund have to be separated. She emphasized that the Slovak
   government does not want to spend a single cent in vain.

   The position of the Slovak prime minister is obstructed by the position of
   the second strongest coalition party, the SaS (Freedom and Solidarity),
   which rejects Slovakia's participation in the new bailout fund, as well as
   increasing the guarantees in the first bailout fund. "It is a serious
   problem, politics is about negotiations," Radicova commented.

   The prime minister went on to say that increasing the capacity of the
   temporary stabilization mechanism is a co mmitment that Slovakia made upon
   first entering it.

   With regard to Slovakia's involvement in the permanent European
   Stabilization Mechanism, the prime minister's position is clear. Setting
   up the mechanism is inevitable, she said, as it is to deal with controlled
   defaults and prevent uncontrolled defaults, too. "I am convinced we have
   to have such an instrument. We cannot keep turning to the United States.
   That is not sustainable in the long-run," she said, adding that it will be
   important to define the process of regulated defaults.

   (Description of Source: Bratislava SITA Online in English -- Website of
   privately owned press agency; URL: http://www.sita.sk)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   56) Back to Top
   US charges French, UAE firms over Iran exports
   "US Charges French, Uae Firms Over Iran Exports" -- NOW Lebanon Headline -
   NOW Lebanon
   Thursday June 23, 2011 15:02:28 GMT
   (NOW Lebanon) - US authorities Thursday charged firms in France and the
   United Arab Emirates for conspiring to export components for attack
   helicopters and fighter jets to Iran without a license.

   The Justice Department said that among the individuals and five corporate
   entities charged were Aerotechnic, based in Pinsaguel, France, its
   president Philippe Sanchez and sales manager Luc Teuly. They remain
   fugitives.

   "The indictment alleges that they were involved in the financing of such
   illegal arms deals and that they helped purchase and route US military
   components they received from the United States to Iran in violation of
   the Iran embarg o and various US export laws and fraud laws," a Justice
   Department statement said.

   Officials said two defendants based in the UAE have also been indicted -
   Aletra General Trading, a company in Dubai doing business as "Erman &amp;amp;
   Sultan Trading Co," and Syed Amir Ahmed Najfi, an Iranian national and
   purchaser for Aletra. Najfi remains a fugitive. -AFP/NOW Lebanon

   (Description of Source: Beirut NOW Lebanon in English -- A
   privately-funded pro-14 March coalition, anti-Syria news website; URL:
   www.nowlebanon.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   57) Back to Top
   NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO 163 -- CHRONOLOGICAL REVIEW (5 of 5)
   Yonhap headline: "NOR TH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 163 (June 23, 2011)" -
   Yonhap
   Thursday June 23, 2011 05:19:21 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   58) Back to Top
   Activists' Intent to Sail to Gaza From Greece Endangers Greek-Israeli
   Relations
   Report by Aristotelia Peloni: "Sudden Storm in Relations With Israel" - Ta
   Nea Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 05:07:11 GMT
   The intention of Greek an d foreign activists to sail from a Greek port
   with a flotilla to break the marine isolation of the Gaza Strip next
   Saturday puts at risk the rapprochement between Greece and Israel; an
   intervention by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to his Greek
   counterpart Georgios Papandreou has already been made about the issue. At
   the same time, Turkey, under pressure from the United States, cancelled
   its participation in the flotilla of the IHH humanitarian relief
   organization, which organized last year's initiative.

   Tel Aviv has been in a diplomatic marathon for weeks now with countries of
   the European Union, among others, exerting pressure on the capitals to
   prevent the departure of the activists with a new flotilla to the Gaza
   Strip, in an attempt to avoid last year's crisis, which caused the
   intervention of the Israeli security forces, which resulted in deaths,
   casualties, and a big blow to the image of Israel.

   Nevertheless, having no choice, Athens is in d anger of finding itself in
   the eye of the storm and there is a possibility of a diplomatic crisis
   beginning with Tel Aviv since, according to sources, after the
   announcement of the Turkish Islamic organization IHH --which was the main
   financier and organizer of the flotilla last year-- that it will not
   participate in this year's mission, Greek and foreign activists intend to
   sail from a port in Greece. This very fact has caused a nervous crisis in
   Israel, which has already intervened at the highest level in Greece,
   since, according to sources, in the past few days there was a telephone
   conversation between Netanyahu and the Greek Prime Minister, whom he asked
   to prevent the sailing of the flotilla.

   Despite the fact that Athens keeps its cards closed as to what it intends
   to do, the truth is that it does not have many choices, since in Greece
   there is a free sailing status. In any event, it is noted that the
   Republic of Cyprus, last year, banned the departure of the boats from its
   ports, using the argument that they come from Turkey.

   The boats finally sailed from the occupied part of the island, therefore
   it was no longer the responsibility of Nicosia.

   According to other sources, despite the cancellation of the official
   participation of Turkey's IHH, members of the organization may participate
   in the new flotilla that will sail from Greece. According to diplomatic
   sources, Ankara would not want to create more tension in the region at a
   time when the balance is delicate --with this argument it received similar
   pressure from the United States-- while at the same time it was offered
   the opportunity to host the new peace talks between Israel and Palestine
   and, given the role it wants to play in the region, it would not want to
   miss the opportunity in question.

   According to sources, the new flotilla that is organized by the Free Gaza
   movement will be comprised of between eight and 12 boats from various
   countries, inter alia the United States, Sweden, Ireland, Spain, and
   Greece. Some of the leading members of the Greek flotilla are activists,
   others belong to the anti-authoritarian milieu, while there are others who
   have expressed their opposition to the improvement of relations among
   Israel, Greece and Cyprus. It must be noted that the website of the Greek
   branch of the Free Gaza movement has condemned the visits of Israeli
   officials to Greece.

   Diplomatic sources speak of an attempt to impose a policy based on a
   minority, at a time when the government has decided to upgrade its
   relations with Israel. In any event, the same sources note that the time
   when the issue is raised is unfortunate, since the rapprochement between
   Greece and Israel is going well, especially in collaborations between
   ministries, while now the joint helicopter exercise bet ween Greece and
   Israel is under way. Furthermore, on 11 July, Greek President of the
   Republic Karolos Papoulias is expected to go to Isr ael on an official
   visit, where, according to sources, he will have a meeting with the entire
   Israeli leadership. During his visit, it is expected that he will be
   accompanied by new Foreign Minister Stavros Lamprinidis. Secret Talks to
   Resolve the Crisis

   Last year, the intervention of Israeli commandos in the Turkish boat Mavi
   Marmara, which resulted in the deaths of nine Turkish activists, was the
   final straw in the deteriorating relations between Turkey and Israel. Mavi
   Marmara was the biggest of the six vessels that sailed in international
   waters toward the Palestinian isolation in 2010. In any event, despite
   Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's fiery rhetoric against
   Israel, things are changing now because of the pressure exerted by
   developments in the Arab world. According to a publication in yesterday's
   (21 Jun) edition of Israeli paper Haaretz, secret talks between Israel and
   Turkey have already begun to resolve the crisis in bilateral relations. Of
   course, the negotiations have the blessing of the United States, while,
   according to Turkish newspaper Zaman, the Israeli Prime Minister, in a
   letter he sent to his Turkish counterpart, calls on him to restore the
   cooperation and the friendship which the two countries have been enjoying
   for many generations now.

   (Description of Source: Athens Ta Nea Online in Greek -- Website of the
   left-of-center daily; URL: http://ta-nea.dolnet.gr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   59) Back to Top
   Bulgarian Defense Chief Denies WikiLeaks Reports on Problems With US
   Partners
   Inetrview with Bulgarian Chief of Defense General Simeon Simeonov by
   Lyubomir Denov; place and date not given: &amp; quot;Cooperative Bulgarians
   With US Diplomats Provide Distorted Information for WikiLeaks" - 24 Chasa
   Thursday June 23, 2011 14:39:37 GMT
   (Simeonov) A conference was held in Belgrade under the auspices of NATO's
   Allied Command Transformation. What we debated at the conference was the
   strategic military partnership in 2011. Participants in the forum were the
   NATO member states and countries taking part in the Partnership for Peace
   program.

   (Denov) What is the latest news from the United Defender operation against
   Al-Qadhafi? Will the Druzki frigate go on patrol again?

   (Simeonov) No, it will not. Druzki successfully completed the first 90
   days of the operation by patrolling the Mediterranean. For the second 90
   days we are sending five officers from the NATO command staff in charge of
   planning the naval operations and air strikes against Libya. After all,
   Bulgar ia's participation depends on the funds available in the military
   budget.

   (Denov) You have rarely appeared before the media or in public lately.
   What are your relationships with Anyo Angelov (defense minister)? I am
   asking you this question because during the democratic transition period
   your predecessors were frequently embroiled in bitter disputes with the
   defense ministers?

   (Simeonov) I will answer you directly -- we have very good relationships.
   After all, my task is not to become a media star, but to work for the good
   training of the army. I would rather prefer people judged my work not by
   the number of interviews I give, but by the real results of my
   performance, because people are not interested in what someone says but
   what they really do. Moreover, we are working in a different environment,
   under the conditions of an integrated Defense Ministry. Although the
   former relatively independent General Staff no longer exists, we now have
   the chance to work as a team and perform responsible tasks and solve
   problems that have arisen.

   Basically I am a person who likes to be engaged in dialogue and cannot but
   estimate the complexity of the situation we are in -- we are short of
   money and every cent must be spent in the most reasonable manner. Only
   those involved in the preparation of Druzki's operation know how many
   problems we had to tackle while the preparation was under way.

   (Denov) Former military officials argue that the role of military
   expertise is being degraded. Are there moments when the top military
   should bang on the table and protect the people in uniform from a yet
   another wave of layoffs, for instance?

   (Simeonov) This is a debatable issue and will hardly be solved by banging
   on the table. The ministry's budget is a key factor in resolving this
   issue. Everything depends on it.

   Recently at a meeting with veterans I asked them whether in the past they
   were interested in whether t here was enough money for fuel, spare parts,
   and others. They said they were not because their duty was to fly, whereas
   the rear staff were supposed to secure everything.

   Now things are different.

   I definitely want the pilots to fly more, the mariners to be at sea more
   often, and the land forces to have more state-of-the-art equipment and
   spend more hours training on the exercise firing range. Although I want
   all this to happen, I am obliged to take into account the budget and what
   funds the state can afford to spend on the army's training in the middle
   of an economic crisis.

   (Denov) How would you comment on the press releases that the money spent
   on the air force has failed to create new capabilities or on the rumors
   that there are practices of corruption in the contracts awarded for the
   supply of Cougar helicopters, Spartan transport aircraft, and even the
   training and Pilatus combat aircraft?

   (Simeonov) I will answer with a rhetorical quest ion. Who signs t he
   contracts worth millions? Do we, military officials, sign them or do the
   civilian chiefs sign them? People know that military experts participate
   in commissions involved in the drafting of a contract for the supply of
   aircraft, then lawyers have a say, but the final decision is made by the
   ministry's political leadership. To answer the second part of the
   question, I must say that the contracts for the supply of the Pilatus
   aircraft, the Cougar helicopters, and the Spartan aircraft were drafted
   not during my term as air force commander, but during my predecessor's
   term in office.

   (Denov) Did you read the last publications WikiLeaks made, which cast
   doubt on your relationships with the Americans? What are your
   relationships with them, Mr General?

   (Simeonov) My relationships with my US counterparts are very good.
   However, the problem is not with the Americans, but with cooperative
   Bulgarians who submit distorted information for subjecti ve reasons. The
   only advantage some of them have is that they graduated from US military
   academies.

   (Denov) You also graduated from a western military academy, right?

   (Simeonov) I have, but the one in Hamburg. In the period envisaged in
   WikiLeaks' reports I was commander of the air forces, so I must admit that
   I have enjoyed, and still enjoy, wonderful relationships with my
   counterparts from the US Air Force. Let me give an example -- if in 2005,
   the first year after I was appointed as commander of the Air Forces, the
   first joint exercise of the Bulgarian and US Air Forces was conducted and
   in the next years their number increased to five. I do think that they are
   extremely useful for Bulgarian pilots. Moreover, I was invited to pay an
   official visit to the United States in 2006. It was then that my
   counterpart General Michael Moseley conferred on me the Order of the
   Honorable Legion award for the commanders class. The following grounds are
   stated in t he diploma: 'for displaying integrity and an excellent
   performance of official duties in the period between May 2005 and
   September 2006'. It also says that 'while holding this post, Gen Simeonov
   proved to be an assured and resolved partner of the United States'.

   This is concise and clear. Although there are a lot more words of praise
   in the diploma, I will keep them to myself. The document was signed by
   Donald Rumsfeld who was then US secretary of defense.

   (Denov) Is it true that you sanctioned the spending of 10 million leva
   ($7.35 million) on the notorious production equipment for hangars?

   (Simeonov) Just the opposite. I was the only person against this extremely
   unjustified expenditure. I said it in court.

   (Denov) What is the truth about the Bezmer Air Base, Mr General? According
   to your predecessor Gen Stoykov it should have been closed down.

   (Simeonov) It should have but common sense prevailed. Leading officials
   took heed of the arguments advanced by the leadership of the Air Forces
   that the Bulgarian-US facility at the nearby military exercise firing
   range at Novo Selo will need an airport. Former Minister Bliznakov and the
   public in Yambol played a decisive role.

   (Denov) Recently the statements made by Minister Angelov made it clear
   that it is plausible that Bulgaria may be short of money to buy new
   fighters. How long can we rely on the Russian MiG-29?

   (Simeonov) We can rely on MiG-29 up to 2029. But only if the funds
   necessary for maintenance are secured. These aircraft assume duties on the
   so-called Air Policing -- an important commitment we have taken on in
   NATO.

   (Denov) MiG-29s have no friend-foe system in place. Does this hinder the
   possible participation of Bulgarian MiG-29 aircraft in air strikes against
   Libya?

   (Simeonov) Speaking about Libya, there is another hindrance as well --
   Bulgarian MiG-29 do not have the capacity to refu el in the air.
   &lt; br&gt;(Denov) How would you respond to the remarks that Bulgaria does not
   need new fighters and that NATO will have to protect Bulgarian airspace?
   That it is sin and shame to allocate hundreds of millions to aviation when
   Bulgaria is short of medicines for the hospitals?

   (Simeonov) I would say that this is populism. First of all, because not a
   single state with its own air forces has decided to discard them.

   I will only recall the fact that it is namely the Bulgarian pilots, not
   anyone else, who were the first in the world to use aircraft as a method
   of combat in the Balkan wars. And second, every single lev allocated to
   meet the army's needs is not taken from the funds for medicines, for
   instance. We spend only the funds from the defense budget.

   For instance, I am hurt when I hear remarks of the sort that the pensions
   of the military officials were unjustifiably high. First of all, they are
   not that high. And second, they are higher than the averag e ones because
   during their whole service the military officials have paid considerably
   higher social security contributions.

   It is not fair after you have played tricks and paid social security
   contributions on a minimal salary to demand a higher salary later. (as
   published)

   If military service is so easy, why do they not come and serve in it? They
   do not dare because there is no such thing as 'I do not want' in the army.
   An order is issued and the next day you leave for Afghanistan or for
   Libya, this is the situation.

   (Description of Source: Sofia 24 Chasa in Bulgarian -- politically
   independent high-circulation daily; owned by BG Printmedia, a subsidiary
   of Austria-registered BG Printinvest, publishers of daily Trud and weekly
   168 Chasa)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   60) Back to Top
   Ivanhoe's Sale of Monywa Mine To PRC Firm Said To Violate Sanctions Laws
   Report by Francis Wade: "Canadian assets 'sold to China weapons firm'";
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at (800) 205-8615 or
   OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Democratic Voice of Burma Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 14:47:18 GMT
   Assets belonging to Canadian mining giant Ivanhoe Mines may have been
   transferred to a Chinese weapons manufacturer following its takeover last
   year of a copper mine in northern Burma, campaigners say.

   If validated, the move could be in violation of both US and Canadian
   sanctions on Burma, said Tin Maung Htoo, executive director of Canadian
   Friends of Burma (CFOB). The group has closely monitored the takeover of
   the Monywa copp er mine last year by Norinco, one of China's biggest arms
   companies that is known to have supplied heavy weaponry to the Burmese
   army.

   Caption reads: Aerial view of the Monywa copper mine in Sagaing division

   (Photo provided by CFOB)

   Monywa is Burma's biggest mine, located in the country's northern Sagaing
   division. Until February 2007, it had been run by the Myanmar Ivanhoe
   Copper Company Limited (MICCL), of which Ivanhoe Mines held a 50 percent
   stake that it claimed was transferred to a body known as The Monywa Trust,
   a blind trust, after the pull out.

   Ivanhoe said in reply to a query from CFOB that it had "disposed" of its
   50 percent stake, and that The Monywa Trust was still looking for buyers.
   It stated that it no longer has any involvement in the project.

   What really became of these assets is questioned by CFOB, which is
   suspicious of the secrecy surrounding the trust, and which fears they may
   been transferred to Norinco via the blacklisted Union of Myanmar Economic
   Holdings (UMEH). The UMEH is controlled by the Burmese military and covers
   the mining rights for three of the Monywa deposits.

   "If indeed the blacklisted entity UMEH obtained Ivanhoe's stake in Monywa
   and resold it to Norinco, this would violate both Canadian and US
   sanctions," said Tin Maung Htoo in a statement on Tuesday. "Ivanhoe must
   be punished financially for any illegality that may have happened."

   Norinco and MICCL are also the target of international sanctions -- both
   the EU and US have blacklisted MICCL, with the EU citing its "key
   financial backing" of the then ruling junta, while Norinco was placed
   under US sanctions in 2003 for selling missiles to Iran.

   Controversy followed the announcement in June last year that Norinco would
   be taking over the Monywa project. Weeks before the contract was agreed,
   senior Burmese officials travelled to China to inspect shipments of
   howitzer cannons that were then transported to Burma via sea-routes.

   It appeared to corroborate allegations by campaign groups such as CFOB
   that the copper deal was sweetened by arms sales to Burma. Financial
   details of the Monywa deal have been vague, but at its peak the mine had
   been producing some 39,000 tonnes of copper per year, and was among
   Burma's most profitable assets. Photograph of Monywa Copper Mine obtained
   from www.dvb.no

   (Description of Source: Oslo Democratic Voice of Burma Online in English
   -- English-language version of the website of a radio station run by a
   Norway-based nonprofit Burmese media organization and Burmese exiles.
   Carries audio clips of previously broadcast programs. One of the more
   reputable sources in the Burmese exile media, focusing on political,
   economic, and social issues; URL: http://www.dvb.no)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   61) Back to Top
   Baghdad market bomb blitz kills 21
   "Baghdad Market Bomb Blitz Kills 21" -- NOW Lebanon Headline - NOW Lebanon
   Thursday June 23, 2011 18:37:46 GMT
   (NOW Lebanon) - Explosives loaded into three shopping carts ripped through
   a crowded market in the Iraqi capital on Thursday, killing at least 21
   people and wounding 107, an Interior Ministry official said.

   "Explosives loaded in three shopping carts killed 21 people and wounded
   107 at the Shurt al-Raba market," the official said, adding that the
   attack happened at 6:45 pm (15:45 GMT) when the area was crowded with
   shoppers.

   "There were a lot of people at the market because it is Thursd ay, the
   evening before the weekend" which begins on Friday, he said.

   Also on Thursday, an American contractor with USAID was killed and another
   US citizen wounded in a bomb attack as their armored vehicle was leaving a
   Baghdad university, the US embassy and witnesses told AFP.

   The attack that killed the American was an improvised bomb that penetrated
   their armored vehicle, a witness said.

   "An American civilian working with an implementing partner of the United
   States Agency for International Development (USAID) in Iraq was killed in
   a terrorist attack today in Baghdad," said David J. Ranz.

   "Three additional civilians were wounded in the attack, including one
   American citizen," he said, without giving any details of the attack.

   A witness said that attack took place at the capital's al-Mustansariyah
   University, just as the delegation was leaving the college in the
   reinforced vehicle.

   Thursday's attacks came at a time of surging violence in Iraq, with three
   assaults against foreign officials in four days. -AFP/NOW Lebanon

   (Description of Source: Beirut NOW Lebanon in English -- A
   privately-funded pro-14 March coalition, anti-Syria news website; URL:
   www.nowlebanon.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   62) Back to Top
   OSC/BBCM Provincial Friday Prayers Roundup on 17 Jun 11
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov - Iran -- OSC Summary
   Thursday June 23, 2011 16:37:04 GMT
   In their sermons, Friday prayer leaders discussed a range of politic al
   and religious issues.

   The birth anniversary of Imam Ali, the first Shiite Imam, as well as the
   anniversary of the death his daughter Zaynab were of the main religious
   event highlighted by the Friday Imams throughout the country. The prayer
   leaders also talked noted to the Islamic tradition of i`tikaf, which
   refers to seclusion of worshippers in mosques with the intention of
   worshipping God only, and deemed it "an opportunity to establish a closer
   relationship with God."

   The 10 June 2011 trip of a US envoy to Iraq for the purpose of visiting
   Camp Ashraf was also noted, and the Friday Imams accused the US of
   "supporting terrorist groups, including the Mojahedin-e Khalq
   Organization."

   The Friday imams also commemorated the anniversary of the establishment of
   the Construction Jihad Organization by the order of late Ayatollah
   Khomeyni, the anniversary of the establishment of the Islamic Propagation
   Organization, Agricultural Jihad Week, and Iran's Judiciary Day. ARDABIL

   Capital: Ardabil

   (Top)

   In their Friday prayer sermons in Iran's Ardabil Province, Friday imams
   focused on Iran's "scientific and economic achievements," including the
   launch of the Rasad satellite into orbit; condemned foreign interference
   in Bahrain; stressed the importance of following the Islamic dress code;
   referred to the approaching death anniversary of the daughter of Imam Ali,
   Zaynab Kobra; talked about the anniversary of the establishment of the
   Construction Jihad Organization and some religious and social issues.
   Hojjat ol-Eslam val-Moslemin Seyyed Hasan Ameli, the Friday prayer leader
   of Ardabil who is also the representative of the Supreme Leader in the
   province, hailed "the scientific and economic achievements of Iran."
   Commenting on the economic sanctions against Iran, Ameli hailed the recent
   success of Iranian scientists in launching the Rasad satellite into orbit,
   referred to the posi tive outlook by the IMF regarding the country's
   economic indices, and praised the successful operations of Iran's
   intelligence forces against "the plots designed by the USA against Iran."
   In another part of his speech, Ameli commented on the situation in Bahrain
   and criticized "the pressure exerted by the USA and Western powers on the
   Muslims of that country."The Friday imam of Parsabad, Hojjat ol-Eslam
   Alavi, talked about religious issues and praised the youth for their
   active participation in i'tikaf religious ceremonies.In Meshkinshahr,
   Hojjat ol-Eslam Bahbeqan said that "the realization of the Supreme
   Leader's predictions concerning popular uprisings in the regional Muslim
   countries pointed to the comprehensive discernment of the Leader."The
   Friday imam of Germi, Hojjat ol-Eslam Safari, condemned violations of the
   Islamic dress code and urged relevant officials to deal with the issue
   "seriously."In Khalkhal, Hojjat ol-Eslam Shoja'i also called on the police
   force to fight against those violating the Islamic dress code.The Friday
   imam of Nir, Hojjat ol-Eslam Moqaddasi, talked about religious issues and
   praised "the services rendered by the supreme jurisconsult to the Islamic
   system."The Friday imam of Bilehsavar, Hojjat ol-Eslam Qiasi, called for
   "the expansion of the culture of hejab and chastity in society."The Friday
   imam of Kowsar, Hojjat ol-Eslam Abdollahi, referred to the approaching
   death anniversary of the daughter of Imam Ali, Zaynab Kobra, and praised
   her "brave confrontation with oppressors in Karbala."The Friday imam of
   Hashtjin, Hojjat ol-Eslam Razavinia, talked about the importance of
   parents' control over their children to avoid social deviations.The Friday
   imam of Namin, Hojjat ol-Eslam Rahimi, talked about the significance of
   i'tikaf ceremonies.Hojjat ol-Eslam Moradi, the Friday prayer imam of
   Anbaran, congratulated the worshippers on the birthday of the f irst Shi'a
   Imam Ali and thanked people for their "active" participation in i'tikaf
   ceremonies.The Friday imam of Sar'eyn, Hojjat ol-Eslam Askhari, talked
   about the anniversary of the establishment of the Construction Jihad
   Organization by the order of the founder of Iran's Islamic Revolution, the
   late Ayatollah Khomeyni, on 17 June 1979 and praised this organization's
   services to the people.The Friday imam of Ja'farabad, Hojjat ol-Eslam
   Ebadi, talked about the significance of i'tikaf.Hojjat ol-Eslam
   Hasanzadeh, the Friday prayer imam of Aslanduz, talked about agricultural
   issues and encouraged provincial farmers to pay zakat, the annual tax on
   Muslims to aid the poor in the Muslim community. (Ardabil Vision of the
   Islamic Republic of Iran Ardabil Provincial TV in Persian)

   BUSHEHR

   Capital: Bushehr

   (Top)

   Bushehr Friday prayer sermons on 17 June covered a range of topics
   including Agricultural Jihad Week, Basiji Teacher's Day, and the anni
   versary of the death of Zaynab, the daughter of Imam Ali.

   Ayatollah Safa'i-Bushehri, Bushehr Friday prayer leader, commemorated
   Agricultural Jihad Week and made note of the importance of agriculture in
   the country's independence. He went on to speak about the need for
   "comprehensive" progress and development in this sector.

   Safa'i-Bushehri marked Basiji Teacher's Day and described the important
   role of the teachers in promoting knowledge and science.

   Elsewhere in his sermon the prayer leader commemorated the anniversary of
   the death of Imam Ali's daughter Zaynab, and explained her role in
   "preserving the survival of Islam and the Shiite religion."

   In Bushehr Friday prayer pre-sermon remarks, Nowzar Monfared the director
   general of the province's Agricultural Jihad Organization talked about
   this organization's "success" in various arenas, and said: "Thanks to its
   successful activities in various fields, the Agri cultural Jihad of
   Bushehr Province was recognized as the best." (Bushehr Vision of the
   Islamic Republic of Iran Bushehr Provincial TV in Persian)

   EAST AZARBAYJAN

   Capital: Tabriz

   (Top)

   In their prayer sermons on 17 June, Friday prayer imams in Iran's East
   Azarbayjan Province focused mainly on the observance of the Islamic dress
   code and the latest developments in Turkey and Bahrain.Ayatollah
   Mojtahed-Shabestari, the representative of the Supreme Leader in the
   province who is also the Friday prayer leader of Tabriz, criticized the
   Law Enforcement Forces for what he described as "the lack of effort to
   enforce the Islamic dress code in the country." and called for "stricter
   measures against those who undermine moral security in society."In another
   part of his sermons, Ayatollah Mojtahed-Shabestari termed the latest
   victory of the Islamic-rooted Justice and Development Party in Turkey's
   parliamentary elections "the defea t of the USA and Israel in the
   region."In Jolfa, Hojjat ol-Eslam Entezari said that "the enemy is
   resorting to culture-related issues as a means in the soft war against
   Iran." According to the cleric, "the only way to counter such a war is by
   exercising a high degree of morality."The interim Friday prayer imam of
   Mehraban, Hojjat ol-Eslam Faryadi, described the spread of an improper
   dress code among women as "a plot hatched by the enemy," and he urged
   people to "maintain their vigilance in the face of such cases."Leading
   Friday sermons in Mamaqan, Hojjat ol-Eslam Baqernezhad drew people's
   attention to the situation in Bahrain and said that "it is an obligation
   for all Muslims to show support for the people of Bahrain." (Tabriz Vision
   of the Islamic Republic of Iran East Azarbayjan Provincial TV) WEST
   AZARBAYJAN

   Capital: Orumiyeh

   (Top)

   Friday prayer leaders in West Azarbayjan Province devoted their s ermons
   to "the wave of Islamic awakening in several Muslim countries," the
   anniversary of the birthday of the first Shiite imam Ali, the significant
   role of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamene'i in Iranian society, the
   successful launch of the Rasad satellite, and some religious and social
   issues.Interim Friday imam of Orumiyeh, Hojjat ol-Eslam Sahebolzamani,
   said that "the wave of Islamic awakening in several Muslim countries
   against global arrogance and dictators is aimed at establishing justice,"
   and he praised the Islamic Revolution that "inspired Muslims to fight
   against dictators." The interim prayer leader then talked about the
   services of Imam Ali, and urged the attendants to stay loyal to his
   doctrines and teachings. In another part of his sermon, Zahebolzamani
   talked about the philosophy of i'tikaf and the importance its
   rituals.During Friday prayer sermons for Sunni Muslims in Orumiyeh, Mollah
   Abdol Qader Beyzavi, talked about rel igious issues and urged unity among
   the Muslims. Beyzavi criticized Western powers for "designing plots
   against Muslims" and said: "The enemies have never remained silent against
   the expansion of Islam throughout the world. Thus, we must maintain our
   unity in order to protect Islam."Miyandoab interim Friday prayer leader
   Hojjat ol-Eslam Qahramani talked about religious issues and hailed the
   significant role of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamene'i in Iranian
   society. Qahramani talked about the services of Imam Ali and urged the
   attendants to follow his path and purify their hearts.Bukan's Friday Imam
   Mollah Ahmadi talked about agricultural issues and praised the efforts of
   farmers and their role in improving Iran's economy.Shahindezh Friday
   prayer leader Hojjat ol-Eslam Baqeri talked about the personality of Imam
   Ali's daughter Zaynab and urged the attendants "to protect Islamic values
   and moralities."Hojjat ol-Eslam Baqeri referred to the s uccessful launch
   of Rasad satellite into orbit and added that "the launch of the satellite
   displayed Iran's power and might."Friday prayer leader of Piranshahr,
   Mollah Mostafa Mahmudi, praised the services of Imam Ali to Islam. He also
   thanked the Agricultural Jihad Organization for providing help to the
   province's farmers.Interim Friday leader of Takab, Hojjat ol-Eslam Moradi,
   spoke about the moral security plan and urged the attendants to observe
   the Islamic dress code. He also talked about religious issues and the
   philosophy of i'tikaf rituals.Sardasht's interim Friday imam, Mollah
   Mohammad Jarihi, talked about the approaching holy month of Rajab and
   commented on Imam Ali's birthday anniversary and other religious
   issues.Friday imam of Oshnaviyeh, Molla Salam Ebrahimi, stressed the
   importance of establishing justice in society and praised Imam Ali's
   services to Islam.Mohammadyar's interim Friday prayer leader, Hojjat
   ol-Eslam Panahian, referred to the recent pop ular uprisings in several
   Muslim countries, saying: "The wave of Islamic awakening in the Muslim
   countries will uproot tyranny in those countries and will frustrate the
   goals of the United States." (Orumiyeh Vision of the Islamic Republic of
   Iran West Azarbayjan Provincial TV in Persian) ESFAHAN

   Capital: Esfahan

   (Top)

   In their prayer sermons on 17 June, Friday imams of Esfahan Province
   focused on the need for the promotion of virtue and prohibition of vice
   and some religious and local issues.In his prayer sermons, Esfahan's
   interim Friday imam, Hojjat ol-Eslam val-Moslemin Rahbar, said that "the
   promotion of virtue and prohibition of vice is everybody's duty in Islamic
   society." He added: "Enemies have attacked the pure souls of the youths
   through destructive cultural tools in order to distance them from their
   pure religious and national identity."Friday prayer leader of Zarrinshahr,
   Hojjat ol-Eslam Baqerian, said: "Ene mies are trying to remove the
   faithful people from the scene through different plots."Rezvanshahr's
   Friday imam, Hojjat ol-Eslam Siyashi, criticized the 18-year delay in the
   construction of the Imam Reza Hospital in Tiran city. (Esfahan Vision of
   the Islamic Republic of Iran Esfahan Provincial TV in Persian) FARS

   Capital: Shiraz

   (Top)

   Fars Friday prayer leaders in their sermons on 17 June placed special
   emphasis of the anniversary of the death of Zeynab, the daughter of Imam
   Ali, extolled her virtues and described her as a "role model" for all
   Muslim women. Friday prayer imams marked the 21 June 1981 death
   anniversary of Mostafa Chamran, former defense minister and one of the
   commanders of paramilitary volunteers during 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war, and
   the anniversary of the establishment of the Construction Jihad
   Organization. Friday prayer leaders throughout the province also
   highlighted various local and religious issues.

   Hojjat ol -Eslam Razavi-Ardekani, Shiraz interim Friday prayer leader,
   commemorated the anniversary of the death Zaynab, describing her as a
   "role model for all Muslim women."

   Razavi-Ardekani also marked the anniversary of the establishment of the
   Construction Jihad Organization and praised the services of its personnel
   during the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war.

   Further on in his sermons he marked the death anniversary of Mostafa
   Chamran.

   Shiraz interim Friday prayer leader next turned to the issue of the
   appointment of a new governor general for Fars Province, and said: "The
   next governor general of Fars must be a virtuous individual who is in line
   with the vlayat (the guardianship of the supreme jurisconsult) and the
   Supreme Leader."

   Elsewhere in the province, Hojjat ol-Eslam Ghafuri, Marvdasht Friday
   prayer leadernreferred to the volume of crop production in the county, and
   called on the government to support the agricultural sector.

   Hojjat ol-Eslam Faqih, Neyriz Friday prayer leader, praised the youth for
   participating in i`tikaf ceremonies.

   Zarrindasht Friday prayer leader also talked about the agricultural issues
   of the county. Hojjat ol-Eslam Baba'i called on the relevant officials to
   compensate the famers for the loss of their crops because of the drought.

   Sarvestan interim Friday prayer leader called for the obedience to the
   velayat, and commemorated the death of Zaynab, the daughter Imam Ali.

   Hojjat ol-Eslam Ravanbakhsh, Banaruyeh Friday prayer leader, focused on
   issues in the agricultural sector in the region.

   Promotion of virtue and prevention of vice was highlighted by Qotbabad of
   Jahrom Friday prayer leader in this week's sermons. (Shiraz Vision of the
   Islamic Republic of Iran Fars Provincial TV in Persian) HORMOZGAN

   Capital: Bandar Abbas

   (Top)

   Hormozgan Friday prayer leaders in their sermons accused the US of
   "supporting terrorism," and marked the anniversary of the birth of Imam
   Ali and the anniversary of the establishment of the Islamic Propagation
   Organization.

   Ayatollah Na'imabadi, Bandar Abbas Friday prayer leader, accused the
   Mojahedin-e Khalq Organization (MKO) of "killing 12,000 people since the
   Islamic Revolution," and said: "The US is breeding terrorism, and is the
   greatest supporter of terrorists, including the monafeqin
   (hypocrites--pejorative for the Mojahedin-e Khalq Organization) minigroup,
   which freely operates in Europe under its support." Na'imabadi then
   referred to the 10 June 2011 visit of a US envoy to Iraq and accused the
   US of "planning to re-organize" the MKO based in Camp Ashraf in Iraq. The
   prayer leader added: "Obama and his allies must be put in trial for the
   crime of supporting terrorism."

   Elsewhere in his sermons, Ayatollah Na'imabadi, commemorated the
   anniversary of the birth of Imam Ali, and marked the anniversary of the
   establishment of the Islamic Propagation Organization.

   Hojjat ol-Eslam Gholami, Jask Friday prayer leader, praised the
   intelligence service of the country, and said: "The vigilance and
   discernment of the intelligence apparatus has despaired the enemy."

   In reference to i`tikaf, Gholami praised those who perform the ceremony,
   saying that "this indicates their piety and faith." (Bandar Abbas Vision
   of the Islamic Republic of Iran Hormozgan Provincial TV in Persian)

   ILAM

   Capital: Ilam

   (Top)

   In Ilam Province, Friday prayer leaders focused their sermons on 17 June
   on various issues such as the birth anniversary of Imam Ali; i`tikaf; the
   26 June 1965 death of four members the Islamic Coalition Party or
   Mo`talefeh-e Eslami--a political group in Iran; Agricultural Jihad Week;
   the anniversary of the establishment of the Construction Jihad
   Organization; and the anniversary of the death of Zaynab, the daughter of
   Im am Ali.

   Ilam Friday prayer leader, Hojjat ol-Eslam val-Moslemin Lotfi, referred to
   the anniversary of birth of Imam Ali, and talked about his personal
   attributes, which he called "beyond understanding by humans." He then
   pointed to Nahj al-Balaghah--a Shiite reference book containing sermons,
   letters, and sayings attributed to Imam Ali--and urged everyone the read
   and study it.

   Elsewhere in his sermons, Lotfi talked about i`tikaf, which he deemed "an
   important spiritual and educational program leading to divine changes in
   souls and spirits of the worshippers, particularly the youth."

   Ilam's prayer leader also marked the 26 June 1965 death of four members
   Mo`talefeh-e Eslami.

   Further in his sermons Lotfi referred to "the seditions of the enemies
   since the Islamic Revolution in 1979," and said: "With the vigilance and
   discernment of the nation andthe wise management of the Supreme Leader,
   all these seditions hav e been neutralized one after another."

   In Ilam Friday prayer pre-sermon remarks, Hojjat ol-Eslam Shojuni, member
   ofthe Combatant Clergy Association, also praised the Supreme Leader for
   his "wisdom and management," which he deemed "the main factors in
   neutralizing the seditions."

   Elsewhere in the province, Hojjat ol-Eslam Hajilari, Abdanan Friday prayer
   leader, marked the anniversary of the establishment of the Construction
   Jihad Organization by the order the founder of the Islamic Republic, the
   late Ayatollah Khomeyni, and praised this organization's services to the
   people. He then called on the officials to pay more attention to the
   agricultural sector. Further on in his sermon, he offered his condolences
   to the worshippers on the anniversary of the death of Zaynab.

   Hojjat ol-Eslam Amra'i, Eyvan Friday prayer leader discussed a range of
   religious issues such as the importance of paying z akat and of i`tikaf.

   Hojjat ol- Eslam Valadbeygi, Chavar Friday prayer, pointed the 15 June
   launch of Rasad satellite, describing it as "a success of Islamic Iran in
   the field of modern sciences and technologies."

   Hojjat ol-Eslam Amra`i, Sarableh Friday prayer leader, commemorated Iran's
   Agricultural Jihad Week, and deemed the agricultural sector "the most
   important economic sector of the country." Elsewhere in his sermon he
   marked the anniversary of the death of Zaynab.

   Hojjat ol-Eslam Hemmati, Darreh Shahr Friday prayer leader, made note of
   the importance of i`tikaf, and said: "I`tikaf is one the long-lived
   Islamic traditions, which has a great influence on developing good
   character and right attitudes in human beings." He also marked the
   anniversary of the establishment of the Construction Jihad Organization.

   Hojjat ol-Eslam Alireza'i, Dehloran interim Friday prayer leader, marked
   the anniversary of the birth of Imam Ali and Father's Day in Iran.

   Hojjat ol-Eslam Hoseyni, Malekshahi Friday prayer leader marked the death
   anniversary of Zaynab, and called her "a role model for patience and
   perseverance." He commemorated Iran's Agricultural Week and pointed to
   improving the agricultural practices in various parts of the country as
   "one of the main goals of the Agricultural Jihad Organization."

   Hojjat ol-Eslam Elyasi, Mehran Friday prayer leader, centered his sermons
   on describing the various aspects of i'tikaf and said: "I'tikaf is the
   best opportunity to think about resurrection, the origin of creation, and
   the endless greatness of God." He further pointed to the launch of Rasad
   satellite and praised Iranian scientists for their "achievements in
   various modern sciences and technologies." (Ilam Vision of the Islamic
   Republic of Iran Ilam Provincial TV in Persian)

   KERMAN

   Capital: Kerman

   (Top)

   Kerman Friday prayer leaders in their 17 June se rmons placed a special
   emphasis on the "virtues" of Rajab, the seventh month of the lunar
   calendar. They also commemorated the anniversary of the birth of Imam Ali
   and the death anniversary of his daughter, Zaynab Kobra. Agricultural
   Jihad Week and Iran's Judiciary Week were also highlighted by the Friday
   Imams throughout the province.

   Hojjat ol-Eslam Arabpur, Kerman interim Friday prayer leader highlighted
   the "virtues" of the month of Raja and urged the worshippers to seize the
   opportunity to benefit from the blessings of this month. He further talked
   about the Islamic tradition of i`tikaf and praised those who participate
   in this "spiritual ceremony."

   Hojjat ol-Eslam Arabpur also commemorated the anniversary of the birth of
   Imam Ali, and called him a "prominent figure who is respected even by
   Sunnis as well as non-Muslims."

   Next, Arabpur marked the anniversary of the death Zaynab Kobra, the
   daughter of Imam A li, and noted the importance of her role in keeping
   alive the legacy of the Battle of Karbala which took place on October 10,
   680 AD.

   Further in his sermons, Kerman's interim Friday prayer marked Agricultural
   Jihad Week, Iran's Judiciary Week, and the anniversary of the
   establishment of the Islamic Propagation Organization.

   Hojjat ol-Eslam Hoseyni, Sirjan Friday prayer leader, also marked the
   birth anniversary of Imam Ali, and stressed the importance of "obedience
   to the velayat."

   The "virtues" of the month of Rajab and the Islamic tradition of i`tikaf
   were also the issues addressed by Hojjat ol-Eslam Hoseyni in this week's
   Friday prayers sermons of Sirjan. (Kerman Vision of the Islamic Republic
   of Iran Kerman Provincial TV in Persian)

   KERMANSHAH

   Capital: Kermanshah

   (Top)

   The issues discussed in the sermons delivered by the Friday prayer leaders
   of Kermanshah on 17 Jun were on the personal attributes of I mam Ali and
   his daughter Zaynab, the anniversary of the establishment of the
   Construction Jihad, and World Day to Combat Desertification and Draught.

   Ayatollah Olama, Kermanshah Friday prayer leader, mainly focused on
   describing the personal attributes of Imam Ali and described him as the
   "superior genius of all times."

   Ayatollah Olama then drew attention to the anniversary of the
   establishment of Construction Jihad, describing it as "the day of the self
   sufficiency in producing all agricultural products."

   Hojjat ol-Eslam Mohammadi, the interim Friday prayer leader of Qasr-e
   Shirin, regarded Imam Ali as a "role model of justice, humanity, and the
   fear of God." He commemorated the anniversary of the foundation of the
   Construction Jihad on 17 June 1979 by the late Ayatollah Khomeyni, and
   also marked the World Day to Combat Desertification and Draught.

   Extolloing the personal attributes of Zaynab, and paying zakat were among
   the other topics discussed by Hojjat ol-Eslam Mohammadi. (Kermanshah
   Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Kermanshah Provincial TV in
   Persian) KHORASAN-E RAZAVI

   Capital: Mashhad

   (Top)

   The main focus of the sermons delivered by Friday prayer leaders of
   Khorasan-e Razavi was on commemorating the birth of Imam Ali and i`tikaf.

   Ayatollah Alamolhoda, Mashhad Friday prayer leader, commemorated the birth
   of Imam Ali and pointed to "materialism and routine" as "factors that
   prevent people from worshipping God." He then discussed i`tikaf and
   described it as "a "stepping stone in worshipping God."

   Hojjat ol-Eslam Mohandesi, Mashhad pre-sermon speaker, mainly talked about
   the "deviant, anti-guardianship, and guardianship-evasion currents."

   Hojjat ol-Eslam val-Moslemin Kazeri, Roshtkhar Friday prayer leader,
   discussed a range of local issues and urged officials to strive more in
   implementing development projects in the county. (Mashhad Vision of the
   Islamic Republic of Iran Khorasan-e Razavi Provincial TV in Persian)

   KHUZESTAN

   Capital: Ahvaz

   (Top)

   Friday prayer sermons in Khuzestan Province focused on the birthday of
   Imam Ali, the successful launch of Rasad satellite, recent developments in
   Turkey and Lebanon, the importance of i'tikaf rituals, and religious and
   social issues.The interim Friday imam of Ahvaz, Hojjat ol-Eslam
   val-Moslemin Hasanzadeh, congratulated people on the birthday of Imam Ali
   and praised his "pure and faithful" characteristics. He urged the
   attendants to follow the example of Imam Ali and obtain justice in
   society. He referred to the death anniversary of Mostafa Chamran and
   praised his services to the Islamic system.Ayatollah Musavi-Jazayeri, the
   Friday prayer leader of Ahvaz Kutabdollah region and the Supreme Leader's
   representative in the province, spoke about the teachings of Imam Ali.
   Musavi-Jazaye ri praised the Iranian scientists for the successful launch
   of Rasad satellite into orbit, describing the event as a "turning point in
   proving Iran's capacities in the world." He commented on the victory of
   the Islamic parties in Turkey's parliamentary polls and the formation of
   the Lebanese government, saying that "the Iranian nation will always
   support the Muslims of the world, especially the oppressed people of
   Bahrain."Hojjat ol-Eslam Salmanpur, the Friday prayer leader of Ramshir,
   glorified provincial youth for their "active" participation in i'tikaf
   ceremonies and said that "such vigorous participation is the resut of
   their loyalty to the Islamic Revolution."The Friday imam of Hoveyzeh,
   Hojjat ol-Eslam Neysi, paid respect to Zaynab on the occasion of her death
   anniversary and urged Muslim women to take her manners as a symbol for
   their conduct. The Friday prayer leader of Masjed Soleyman, Hojjat
   ol-Eslam Amini, talked about the advantages of the holy month of Rajab and
   urged the attendants to take the opportunity and purify their hearts and
   souls.The Friday prayer leader of Sardasht, Hojjat ol-Eslam Nasiri praised
   the services of Iran's Supreme Leader to the Islamic system and said that
   "even the enemies have confessed of the endless discernment of the
   Leader."The Friday prayer leaders of Susangerd, Hojjat ol-Eslam Musavi,
   referred to the establishment of Agricultural Jihad Organization by the
   order of the late Imam Khomeyni and praised the activities of the
   organization.The Friday imam of Cho'ebdeh, Hojjat ol-Eslam Mohammadipur
   congratulated people on the approaching Judiciary Week and urged the
   juridical bodies to establish justice in society.The Friday prayer leader
   of Mahshahr's Taleqani Town, Hojjat ol-Eslam Mo'arref talked about the
   establishment of Agricultural Jihad Organization and thanked the
   organization for its support during the Iran-Iraq war.The Friday imam of
   Baghmalek, Hoj jat ol-Eslam Tavakkoli, talked about religious issues and
   elaborated on i'tikaf religious rituals.Hojjat ol-Eslam Khosrowpanah, the
   interim Friday imam of Dezful, talked about the philosophy of the
   promotion of virtue and the prohibition of vice and other religious
   issues.Behbahan's Friday Imam Hojjat ol-Eslam Soleymani stressed the
   importance of the implementation of a moral security plan and urged the
   administrative and social representatives to pay more attention to the
   plan.Hojjat ol-Eslam Khoddami, Friday prayer imam of Andimeshk, talked
   about religious issues and expressed condolences upon the approaching
   anniversary of Zaynab's death.In Lali, Hojjat ol-Eslam Seyyed Ahmadi
   talked about the advantages of Rajab and encouraged people to turn to God
   during Rajab in particular, as sins are forgiven during that month and
   people can benefit from its merits and blessings.The interim Friday prayer
   leader of Alvar-e Garmsiri, Hojjat ol-Eslam Najafvand, condemned the MKO's
   attack on pilgrims on 20 June 1994.In Veys, Hojjat ol-Es lam Afarinabadi,
   spoke about the establishment of Agricultural Jihad Organization by the
   order of the late Imam Khomeyni. (Ahvaz Vision of the Islamic Republic of
   Iran Khuzestan Provincial TV in Persian)

   KOHKILUYEH-BOYER AHMAD

   Capital: Yasuj

   (Top)

   In the Friday prayer sermons in Kohkiluyeh-Boyer Ahmad Province, prayer
   leaders focused on the opportunities and advantages of the religious month
   of Rajab and some local issues.The Friday imam of Yasuj, Hojjat ol-Eslam
   val-Moslemin Hoseyni, pointed to the advantages of the Rajab and
   appreciated the youth's "enthusiastic" participation in the I'tikaf
   religious ceremony. He then described the dress code violations as "one of
   the plans of the enemies of Islam to strike at the values of the Islamic
   system," and said that "Muslim youths are prepared to resist the enemy's
   stratagems in different fields, and fighting the dress code v iolations is
   one of the Muslims' essential duties." He described the Supreme Leader's
   orders as "the solution of society's problems" and urged the authorities
   to adhere to these orders.The Friday imam of Gachsaran, Hojjat ol-Eslam
   val-Moslemin Musavi, stressed the importance of solving the people's
   problems and improving the infrastructure of the city.The interim Friday
   imam of Sisakht, Hojjat ol-Eslam val-Moslemin Erfani, described the
   I'tikaf religious ceremony as "an opportunity for teaching a lesson to
   sinners." Further on in his sermon, he discussed the importance of
   economizing in general and saving water in particular. (Yasuj Vision of
   the Islamic Republic of Iran Kohkiluyeh va Boyer Ahmad Provincial TV in
   Persian) KORDESTAN

   Capital: Sanandaj

   (Top)

   The Friday prayer leaders of Kordestan Province focused their sermons on
   the "vitures" of Rajab, the anniversary of Imam Ali, i`tikaf, Agricultural
   Jihad Week, and the anniversary of the establishment of the Islamic
   Propagation Organization.

   Mamusta Mojtahedi, Sanandaj Friday prayer leader, drew attention to the
   "vitues" of the lunar month of Rajab, and urged the people to "please God
   by their good deeds."

   In referring to the recent uprisings in the Islamic countries, Mamusta
   Mojtahedi said: "By unity, unanimity, and the jihadi morale, the Muslims
   must resist the enemies' plots and provide the ground for the
   accomplishment of the government of divine justice in the world."

   Hojjat ol-Eslam Ehya, Qorveh Friday prayer leader, commemorated the birth
   of Imam Ali, highlighted the "good advantages" of i`tikaf, and urged
   youths "to take advantage of this spiritual opportunity to purify spirit
   and soul."

   Mamusta Hoseinzadeh, Saqqez Friday prayer leader commemorating the
   Agricultural Jihad Week, referred to the farmers as "hard working" people,
   and asked them t o "take advantage of the agriculture prompters in order
   to improve their production efficiency."

   Mamusta Khodai', Friday prayer leader of Baneh, marked the anniversary of
   the birth of Imam Ali, and talked about the "virtues" of the month of
   Rajab.

   Elsewhere in his sermons he was cited as saying: "Thanks to the Islamic
   Republic there is blessing, peace, and safety throughout Iran," adding:
   "Under the light of the unity and harmony of the people and the Islamic
   system, the efforts of the enemies and their associated terrorist groups
   will fail."

   Mamusta Hasani, Divandarreh Friday prayer leader, commemorated the
   anniversary of the establishment of the Islamic Propagation Organization
   by the order of the Late Ayatollah Khomeini, and praised its "significant
   role" in promoting the Islamic culture. (Sanandaj Vision of the Islamic
   Republic of Iran Kordestan Provincial TV in Persian)

   MAZANDARAN

   C apital: Sari

   (Top)

   Friday prayer sermons in Mazandaran Province focused on Imam Ali, the
   important role of the spiritual leader Ayatollah Khamene'i in society, the
   virtues of Imam Ali's daughter Zaynab Kobra, the implementation of the
   moral security plan, and some social and religious issues.Ayatollah
   Tabarsi, the representative of Iran's supreme leader to the province and
   the Friday imam of Sari, congratulated worshippers on the anniversary of
   the birthday of Imam Ali, and thanked people for their "active" turnout at
   i'tikaf ceremonies. He then talked about Ayatollah Khamene'i's "important
   role" in governing society, and praised his service to the Islamic system
   and the Iranian people. Further on in his sermon, Ayatollah Tabarsi paid
   respect to Zaynab Kobra and glorified her personality and "blessed
   characteristics," saying: "We should follow the example of Zaynab Kobra in
   order to withstand the West's cultural onslaught.&amp;quo t; In another part
   of his sermon, Tabarsi referred to the moral security plan and stressed
   the importance of the plan's implementation.In Juybar, Hojjat ol-Eslam
   Qolipur talked about the personality of Zaynab Kobra and urged society "to
   protect, expand, and hand down Islamic values to future generations." The
   prayer leader also commented on irrigation problems in the town, and urged
   officials to deal with the water supply problems.Mahmudabad Friday prayer
   imam, Hojjat ol-Eslam Esma'ili, praised the service of Zaynab Kobra and
   talked about the significance of Ashura, a day of mourning for the
   martyrdom of Imam Husayn, the grandson of Prophet Muhammad at the Battle
   of Karbala . (Sari Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Mazandaran
   Provincial TV in Persian) SISTAN-BALUCHESTAN

   Capital: Zahedan

   (Top)

   Friday imams in Iran's Sistan-Baluchestan Province spoke about Imam Ali's
   birthday and praised his role in Islamic history in their Friday prayers
   on 17 June. They also called for more efforts to fight the West's
   "cultural onslaught" against Iran.The representative of Iran's Spreme
   Lader in the province and Friday imam of Zahedan, Ayatollah Soleymani,
   said "he establishment of public security and the fight against offences
   that threaten the health of society are sacred duties."Soleymani also
   urged the youth and teenagers to take "an active part" in i'tikaf
   spiritual ceremonies and congratulated Muslims on the birthday of Imam
   Ali.Ayatollah Soleymani noted the beginning of Agriculture Week and Law
   Enforcement Week, saying that a pilot project on public and moral security
   will be implemented in three provinces of the country. He said that "the
   implementation of this project is a great step in the fight against the
   West's soft warfare against Iran."The interim Friday imam of Zabol, Hojjat
   ol-Eslam Lashgari, said that "following religious cannons and
   familiarizing people with the foundations of Islam is one of the ways of
   combating the enemy's soft warfare and cultural onslaught."The Friday imam
   of Saravan, Hojjat ol-Eslam Dehqan, urged officials to create grounds for
   employment "through appropriate and accurate planning and the
   implementation of agricultural projects."The interim Sunni Friday imam of
   Saravan, Mowlavi Arbab, said that Imam Ali had a great impact on the
   history of Islam and that Islam is now indebted to Imam Ali.The Friday
   imam of Zahedan's Sunni Makki Mosque, Mowlavi Abdolhamid Esma'ilzehi,
   praised Imam Ali for his fight for Islam.The Friday imam of Chabahar,
   Hojjat ol-Eslam Musavi, urged people to take "greater steps" to develop
   agriculture.The Sunni Friday imam of Chabahar, Mowlavi Abdorrahman
   Mollazehi, urged parents to give their children "the right education by
   identifying the enemy's cultural plots."Other Friday imams also praised
   Imam Ali and his role in Islam's history and touched on other l ocal
   issues. (Zahedan Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Sistan-Baluchestan
   Provincial TV in Persian) YAZD

   Capital: Yazd

   (Top)

   In Yazd Province, Friday prayer leaders in their sermons discussed a range
   of issues such the observance of Islamic hejab, the Islamic tradition of
   i`tikaf, the anniversary of the establishment of the Construction Jihad
   Organization, and Agricultural Jihad Week. The anniversary of the birth of
   Imam Ali, and death the anniversary of Zaynab, the daughter of Imam Ali
   were also highlighted.

   Yazd Friday prayer leader Hojjat ol-Eslam val Moslemin Saduqi spoke about
   the importance of observing the hejab in society and urged the Law
   Enforcement and Judiciary officials to "adopt a firm approach in
   countering those who promote the culture of careless hejab."

   In referring to the "virtues" of the month of Rajab, Saduqi placed a
   special emphasis on the Islamic tradition of i`tikaf, and called on the
   wors hippers to perform i`tikaf in order to "benefit from the blessings of
   the month of Rajab."

   Elsewhere in his sermons, Hojjat ol-Eslam val Moslemin Saduqi marked the
   anniversary of the establishment of the Construction Jihad Organization by
   the order of the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeyni, and praised its
   personnel for their services to the people and the country during the
   1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war.

   Saduqi next turned to note the importance of agriculture sector in the
   economy of the country and urged the respective local officials to pay
   more attention to problems of farmers and that of cropping in the region.

   Saduqi also commemorated the birth anniversary of Imam Ali, and dedicated
   part of his sermons to describe his "virtues and personal attributes."

   Further in his sermons he marked the anniversary of the death of daughter
   of Imam Ali, Zaynab Kobra, and called on Muslim women to take her as a
   "role model."

   In Meybod, Friday prayer leader Hojjat ol-Eslam A`rafi referred to the
   Islamic tradition of i`tikaf and urged the worshippers to use this
   opportunity to receive the "blessings" of the month of Rajab. He also
   called on everyone to pay attention to cultural and moral values, and
   cited the remarks of the Supreme Leader in this regards as saying that
   "culture is the basis development and advancement."

   Ardakan Friday prayer leader Hojjat ol-Eslam Hoseyni marked the
   anniversary of the birth of Imam Ali, extolled his virtues, and called on
   worshippers to follow his traditions.

   Mehriz Friday prayer leader Hojjat ol-Eslam Borhan centered his sermons on
   issues such as i`tikaf, and the death anniversary of Zaynab Kobra.

   In Bahabad, Friday prayer leader Hojjat ol-Eslam Mollahoseyni also marked
   the anniversary of the death of Zaynab, and spoke about the importance of
   her role in the post-Karbala events. Mollahoseyni commemorated the
   anniversary of the establishment of the Construction Jihad Organization,
   and also noted the importance of using new technologies is agricultural
   practices.

   In Herat, Friday prayer leader Hojjat ol-Eslam Fatemi commemorated
   Agricultural Jihad Week and called on growers to optimize the use of water
   in agriculture. He also touched on the implementation of the social
   security plan, and urged the Law Enforcement Force to "seriously counter
   those who do not observe the Islamic hejab."

   Hojjat ol-Eslam Morteza'i-Nia, Deyhuk Friday prayer leader talked about
   the Islamic tradition of i`tikaf, and also commemorated Agricultural Jihad
   Week.

   Hojjat ol-Eslam Modarresi, Mohammadabad Friday prayer leader marked the
   anniversary of the death Mehdi Chamran, and the anniversary of the
   establishment of the Islamic Propagation Organization.

   Hojjat ol-Eslam Va`ezi, Manshad Friday prayer leader, commemorated the
   birth anniversary of Imam Ali, and deemed the Islamic tradition of i`tikaf
   an "opportunity to pray and establish a closer relationship with God."
   (Yazd Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Yazd Provincial TV in
   Persian)

   (Top)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   63) Back to Top
   Iraqi Politicians Divided Over US Presence, Worried by Iranian Envoy's
   Threat
   Report by Hamzah Mustafa in Baghdad: "Iraqi Blocs Are Divided Over US
   Presence and Iranian Ambassador's Statements Worry Everyone. 'Al-Iraqiyah'
   Spokeswoman to 'Al-Sharq al-Awsat': National Consensus Is Needed" -
   Al-Sharq al-Awsat Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 12:50:32 GMT
   Iraq i Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki had already declared he was
   personally against extension for the American troops, saying the agreement
   between the two sides did not allow the Americans to remain unless a new
   one was signed and this was a matter left for the political blocs and
   parliament. Yet in the view of political observers in Baghdad, Iraqi
   parliament Speaker Usamah al-Nujayfi's current visit to the United States
   is linked to the issue of the American presence in Iraq after 2011,
   particularly as the government threw the ball into parliament's corner
   through its leader.

   While the political blocs voiced different views about this issue,
   everyone is worried by the recent statements of Iranian Ambassador to Iraq
   Hassan Danaei-Far in which he said he informed Baghdad that any American
   strike against Iran from inside Iraq means that Iran would retaliate with
   a similar strike on the American forces deployed in Iraq. In this context,
   Al-Iraqiyah List stressed that " ;its stand on the issue of American
   pullout from Iraq depends on the government's stance since it is the one
   primarily concerned with the extent of the Iraqi forces' preparedness."
   Its Spokeswoman Maysun al-Damaluji said in a statement to Al-Sharq
   al-Awsat that "the issue of American pullout and presence is one of two
   points that will be discussed at the political blocs' next meeting." She
   added that "this issue needs a national consensus and this will be
   discussed at the upcoming meeting that the president of the republic will
   call after the negotiations committees have completed their work."
   Al-Damaluji stressed "the important thing for us as a country is that we
   are capable of consolidating security as then there will be no need for
   the Americans. But the issue remains dependent on the blocs' well-thought
   and practical agreement."

   Regarding the Iranian ambassador's statements, she said "these statements
   are totally unacce ptable. Iran does not have the right to act like this
   particularly as we are interested in building relations of good
   neighborliness with it and therefore it must take these matters into
   consideration." She pointed out that "the interest of our country Iraq in
   terms of its security, stability, and ability to defend itself is our main
   concern and therefore we reiterate our rejection of Iran's efforts to
   interfere in our Iraqi private affairs because this is bound to complicate
   things."

   On his part, Hakim al-Zamili, the leading figure in Al-Sadr Trend and
   member of the Iraqi parliament, said in a statement to Al-Sharq al-Awsat
   that "Al-Sadr Trend's stand on the American pullout is resolved and there
   is nothing new in it. But we have started to see new stands by many blocs
   and parties, including Al-Da'wah party that is led by Prime Minister
   Al-Maliki, opposed to extending the Americans' presence in Iraq after the
   end of this year." He pointed out that "using the Iraqi forces'
   unpreparedness is the excuse used by some for keeping the Americans
   because our security forces are capable of controlling the security
   dossier inside the country while the question of the preparedness of the
   air and naval forces does not justify the Americans' continued presence
   because we can deal with the issue of armaments quickly even if this
   warrants the lease of aircraft. Iraq did this in the past during the war
   with Iran when the former regime leased aircraft from France and used them
   for strikes on Iran." He added that "Al-Sadr Trend leader recently sought
   the opinion of several clerics, among them Sunni clerics from Al-Azhar and
   Association of Muslim scholars, and all their fatwas were against the
   Americans' continued presence in Iraq after this year because they are
   occupation forc es." As to the Iranian ambassador's statement, Al-Zamili
   said "Al-Sadr Trend responded clearly to this and our stand is al so
   clear. We reject an Iranian strike on Iraq on the pretext of attacking the
   Americans. We also reject the Americans striking Iran from inside Iraq."

   In the same context, Hamid al-Mutlak, the leading figure in the National
   Dialogue Front, said in a statement to Al-Sharq al-Awsat that "the Iranian
   ambassador's statements are an American invitation to remain in Iraq and
   not the opposite." He pointed out that "the presence of some Americans in
   Iraq after this year under any pretext is totally unacceptable because it
   is the Americans who have destroyed Iraq's relations with its environs and
   their continued presence means the continuation of problems and crises."

   Kurdish Alliance Mu'ayid al-Tayyib asserted to Al-Sharq al-Awsat that "our
   stand on the Americans remaining depends on the general national situation
   and the preparedness of our forces without any political one-upmanship. If
   we are capable of defending our security, then t here will be no need for
   them to remain but if we are not, then it is possible to agree on a
   specific formula and for a specific period of time." Regarding the Iranian
   ambassador's statements, Al-Tayyib said "the Kurdish Alliance rejects
   strongly this language in relations between countries."

   (Description of Source: London Al-Sharq al-Awsat Online in Arabic --
   Website of influential London-based pan-Arab Saudi daily; editorial line
   reflects Saudi official stance. URL: http://www.asharqalawsat.com/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   64) Back to Top
   Highlights of Khabat, Kurdistani Nuwe 19-21 Jun 11
   The following lists selected items from the two leading Iraq i Kurdish
   newspapers, Khabat and Kurdistani Nuwe, on 19-21 June. To request
   additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735,
   or fax (703) 613-5735. - Iraq -- OSC Summary
   Thursday June 23, 2011 09:18:38 GMT
   -- Kurdistani Nuwe on 19 June carries a 600-word page 2 report citing
   Halkawt Abdallah saying that intellectuals in the Kurdistan Region should
   contribute to the effort currently under way to bring the political forces
   together and to promote dialogue among them.

   -- Kurdistani Nuwe on 19 June carries a 300-word page 3 report saying that
   Kosrat Rasul Ali, PUK leader's first deputy, met Muhammad Mahmud, leader
   of the Kurdistan Socialist Democratic Party to discuss the need to
   implement Article 140 of the Iraqi Constitution on the disputed areas.

   -- Khabat on 19 June carries a 600-word page 1 report saying that a
   delegation of the Lebanese Future Mo vement, headed by Political Bureau
   member Salim Diyab, visited the KDP Political Bureau where it was received
   by the secretary of the KDP Political Bureau Fadil Mirani. Discussions
   focused on bilateral ties. (Description of source: Arbil Khabat Online in
   Kurdish - Website of Khabat daily newspaper published by the Kurdistan
   Democratic Party, KDP, URL: http://www.xebat.net)

   -- Khabat on 19 June carries a 250-word page 1 report saying that there is
   likelihood the immunity of some Al-Iraqiyah MPs will be lifted due to
   leave of absence.

   -- Kurdistani Nuwe on 20 June carries a 1,200-word page 2 report citing
   Narmin Uthman, deputy head of the Commission on the Implementation of
   Article 140, saying that the Iraqi Ministry of Agriculture has decided to
   provide compensation for farmers whose lands were confiscated under the
   former regime. Muhammad Ihsan, KRG representative in the commission, is
   cited telling reporters that the commission will be working through the
   Ira qi Presidency to resolve the border issues of the disputed areas and
   through the parliament to revoke the former regime's decisions on the
   disputed areas.

   -- Kurdistani Nuwe on 20 June carries a 300-word page 2 report saying that
   Iraqi President Jalal Talabani received a phone call from Iyad Allawi,
   leader of the Al-Iraqiyah List, who apologized for not being able to
   attend the upcoming meeting of the Iraqi factions due to a health visit to
   the UK.

   -- Kurdistani Nuwe on 20 June carries a 400-word page 2 report saying that
   Kirkuk Governor Najm-al-Din Karim met a US consulate delegation to discuss
   the withdrawal of the US forces from Iraq. Karim is cited telling the
   delegation that a complete pullout of the US forces at this juncture,
   especially from the disputed arras, will not serve Iraq.

   -- Kurdistani Nuwe on 20 June carries a 270-word page 2 report citing KRG
   Minister of Planning Ali Sindi saying that the KRG is planning to
   privatize the electricity, h ealth, and education sectors. He says that
   the situation in the Kurdistan Region is far better than the rest of Iraq
   according to recent figures. He says that the unemployment rate in Iraq
   stands at 28 percent, while it is between 12 and 14 percent in the
   Kurdistan Region; and poverty rate in the rest of Iraq stands at 28
   percent - reaching as high as 38 percent in some governorates -- while it
   is only 4.5 percent in the Kurdish region.

   -- Kurdistani Nuwe on 20 June carries a 300-word page 2 report citing
   Iraqi MP Al Talabani, of the Kurdistan Alliance (PUK), saying that a
   commission - comprising one member of each of the Kurdish, Arab, Turkoman
   and Christian communities -- has been set up to look into Kirkuk
   elections.

   -- Khabat on 20 June carries a 600-word page 1 report saying that Iraqi
   Kurdistan Parliament Speaker Kamal Kirkuki met a delegation of students
   from Kirkuk to discuss the situation in Kirkuk, including the status of
   Kurdish education, unemployme nt, and services.

   -- Khabat on 20 June carries a 200-word page 1 report citing Anwar
   Hama-Amin, Iraqi Air Force Commander, saying that Kirkuk's military
   airport will be turned into a civilian one soon.

   -- Khabat on 20 June carries a 400-word page 4 report saying that a
   delegation of the KDP visited the Democratic Party of Kurdistan-Iran
   headquarters in Arbil to discuss bilateral ties and congratulate the party
   on its latest conference.

   -- Kurdistani Nuwe on 21 June carries a 400-word page 2 report citing Azad
   Jundiyani, PUK Political Bureau spokesman, responding to a Change Movement
   official reportedly saying that if the opposition reform project is not
   implemented the opposition will turn to the street, saying: The
   negotiations among the political forces are not only for talks over the
   opposition reform package, but they are there to reach common denominators
   regarding all the projects and reaching agreements on them. He adds that
   the critical juncture the nation is passing through requires all forces to
   reach an agreement away from political propaganda.

   -- Kurdistani Nuwe on 21 June carries a 300-word report saying that Kosrat
   Rasul Ali, first deputy PUK leader, visited the PUK center in Arbil to
   applaud the cadres for the rise in PUK popularity as witnessed during
   events marking PUK anniversary on 1 June.

   -- Kurdistani Nuwe on 21 June carries a 400-word page 2 report saying that
   the KRG renewed its opposition to forcible deportation of asylum seekers
   from European countries.

   -- Kurdistani Nuwe on 21 June carries a 1,600-word page 3 interview with
   Kosrat Rasul Ali as published by the Al-Sharq al-Awsat on 20 June, in
   which he says that the Kurds have the right to found their own independent
   country. He adds that the PUK is a strong political party as it has
   withstood many crises yet emerged as a robust force. He says he is in
   touch with some Change Movement leaders, who used to be his colleagues in
   th e PUK, to discuss issues.

   -- Kurdistani Nuwe on 21 June carries a 2,000-word page 8 interview with
   Sa'di Ahmad Pira, member of the PUK Political Bureau, to comment on the
   current talks between the opposition and the ruling parties. He says a
   comparison between the opposition project and those of the PUK-KDP
   coalition as well as the two partner's strategic agreement revealed a 70
   percent resemblance, which is a pleasing outcome that gives hope. Also
   given the similarity between the two projects, the talks should mostly
   focus on their implementation rather than differences. He says the
   opposition groups supposedly have two further projects they want to add to
   their current one. He says the media have to act responsibly as they are
   utilizing a powerful tool that can ignite conflicts the way the behavior
   of an undisciplined Peshmerga used to cause conflicts during the
   insurrection years.

   -- Khabat on 21 June carries a 600-word page 1 report saying that the
   Fadil M irani met Muhammad Mahmud, leader of the Kurdistan Socialist
   Democratic Party and a senior delegation, to discuss bilateral ties.
   Commentary

   -- In a 1,000-word page 2 report in Kurdistani Nuwe on 19 June, Suzan
   Shihab, head of the Kurdistan Alliance bloc in the IKP says: The march for
   reforms is continuing and the regional president's latest announcement of
   reform measures taken by the government reaffirms that; and the
   government's stepping up of these measures has even been even welcomed by
   the opposition. However, there are fears that some people who have been
   involved in corruption - with evidence held against them - are determined
   to stay in their positions, or they are telling their colleagues that they
   are awaiting promotion; others are selling the lands they were granted by
   the government under projects. It is due to such incidents that my hopes
   of reform and those of the public are dashed. However, Barzani's message
   came as a reassurance that other steps t oward reforms will be taken to
   remove those who have abused their public posts.

   -- In a 600-word page 2 article in Kurdistani Nuwe on 19 June, editor in
   chief Sitran Abdallah says: For several years, the Al-Hadba List has been
   in charge of the Mosul administration without bothering to engage the
   Kurdish-led Ninawa Fraternity List in any of the governorate's decisions.
   The list is simply controlling everything in the governorate, thereby
   completely sidestepping the principles of consensus. The Al-Nujayfi
   brothers try to show that the democracy of majority works better than
   consensus, yet on the Iraq level, they bid for consensus.

   -- In a 1,000-word page 4 article in Kurdistani Nuwe on 19 June, the
   editorial chief of Kurdistani Nuwe comments on the ongoing dialogue among
   the Kurdish political factions, saying that the talks should aim at
   reaching meaningful outcomes in the interest of the Kurdistan Region,
   rather than being dialogue just for the sake of it. No one is expecting
   all the political forces to be of the same color; differences are
   inevitable and the presence of opposition is also inevitable in any
   healthy democracy; however, the difference must always have a limit, and
   should never cross the national interest.

   -- A 600-word page 1 editorial in Kurdistani Nuwe on 20 June says that
   parallel to an impartial coverage, the independent and private media must
   maintain professionalism and the spirit of nationalism and patriotism
   above all considerations and must not get carried away with politics and
   take sides. Meanwhile, the main objective of any media outlet should be
   social peace.

   -- In a 700-word page 9 article in Kurdistani Nuwe on 21 June, geological
   engineer Farhad Hamza Muhammad says: I was struck when I recently read
   about Iraq's five-year gas deal with Iran, according to which Iraq will be
   buying gas from Iran at international market prices for the period to fuel
   gas-powered generators. The project see ms to be more political rather
   than economic, since Iraq boasts a vast amount of gas that gets burned
   into the air. Some 150 million cubic meters of gas are burned on a daily
   basis in the Northern Oil Company alone, and this is due to negligence on
   the part of the Iraqi Oil Ministry.

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   65) Back to Top
   Kan's Aide on Emergency Operations Says Japan Cleaning Radioactive Water -
   AFP
   Thursday June 23, 2011 12:39:20 GMT
   TOKYO, June 23, 2011 (AFP) - Despite technical glitches, Japan is
   confident it can decontaminate vast amounts of radioactive water at its
   stricken Fuku shima nuclear plant, Tokyo's point man on the accident said
   Thursday.

   Emergency crews have struggled to dispose of more than 100,000 tons of
   highly contaminated runoff water from over three months of reactor cooling
   operations since the March 11 earthquake and tsunami hit the plant.With
   the onset of the summer rainy season this week, and the plant's basements,
   pools and ditches almost full, workers are racing against time to filter
   and recycle the water and avoid renewed spills into the Pacific
   Ocean.Goshi Hosono, Prime Minister Naoto Kan's aide on emergency
   operations at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, stressed that a water
   decontamination system was working again after a series of glitches.Even
   as the system, built with the help of US and French companies, is working
   below full capacity now, he said, "we are processing more water than the
   amount of newly contaminated water. Risks of overflows have
   fallen."Speaking to foreign media in Tokyo, he added t hat under usual
   circumstances, "a system like that should take a year to build. But we had
   to build it in two months, given the extraordinary situation."Embattled
   plant operator Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) brought the system online on
   June 17, but it has been stopped twice since then because of technical
   troubles, including low performance and the need to replace parts.The
   treatment system was designed to remove radioactive materials as well as
   oil and sea salt from about 1,200 tonnes of water a day, using equipment
   from France's Areva group and Kurion Inc of the United States.As of early
   Thursday afternoon, roughly 2,200 tons of water had been treated,
   according to Areva."The two systems complement each other. We believe the
   choices we made are correct," Hosono said, but he added that tough working
   conditions at the plant made the system's smooth operation more
   difficult.Getting rid of the radioactive water will allow workers to start
   longer-term repair work to the cooling systems at the plant, which TEPCO
   aims to bring to a state of stable "cold shutdown" by January.Speaking of
   the wider radiation impact, Hosono said: "I can say: rest assured that
   there will not be significant negative impacts from the accident, except
   for the areas where residents had to evacuate."hih/fz/apj(Description of
   Source: Hong Kong AFP in English -- Hong Kong service of the independent
   French press agency Agence France-Presse)

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   66) Back to Top
   Moscow Calling on Washington Not to Question S. Kurils' Sovereignty (Part
   2) - Interfax
   Thursday June 23, 2011 11:48:25 GMT
   2)

   MOSCOW. June 23 (Interfax) - Moscow is calling on Washington not to
   question the fact that the Southern Kuril Islands belong to Russia."We
   consider inappropriate a situation in which Russia's sovereignty over the
   Southern Kuril Islands is questioned this or that way," the Russian
   Foreign Ministry information and press department said in a statement on
   Thursday in commenting on a joint statement by the U.S. and Japan, in
   which they expressed determination to seek full normalization of
   Russian-Japanese relations through settling the issue of the so-called
   Northern Territories.The U.S. also pointed out in the statement that
   Washington considers the Southern Kurils Japanese territory."The problem
   of a peace treaty is a bilateral issue between Moscow and Tokyo, and any
   attempts to interfere do not help create a calm atmosphere for developing
   dialogue on this complicated and sensitive subject," the Russian Foreign
   Ministry said.Russia's sovereignty over the Kuril Islands is absolutely
   lawful, it said."We have reasons to expect our American partners to be
   more respectful toward relevant agreements between the allied powers (the
   WWII winners)," it said.Interfax-950215-AACILZAN

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   67) Back to Top
   Russia warns USA not to question its sovereignty over islands disputed by
   Japan - Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation
   Thursday June 23, 2011 10:01:16 GMT
   Moscow has noted that the statement issued at the end of the recent
   Japanese-US securi ty consultations at the level of foreign and defence
   minsters included a passage saying that "the parties will assist full
   normalization of Russian-Japanese relations through the resolution of the
   northern territories issue" (as received; the actual passage in the joint
   statement reads "Realize full normalization of Japan and Russia relations
   through the resolution of the Northern Territories issue"), which, as far
   as we understand, refers to the issue of the peace treaty between Russia
   and Japan.

   We regard as incongruous the situation in which any doubt is cast in any
   way on Russia's sovereignty over the southern Kuril Islands, which are
   legally part of Russian territory following the results of World War II,
   which were confirmed by the UN Charter. In this context, we are entitled,
   among other things, to expect a more respectful attitude from our US
   partners to the relevant agreements between the allied powers of the
   anti-Hitler coalition on the s ubject of the Kuril Islands.

   The issue of the peace treaty is a matter for bilateral relations between
   Moscow and Tokyo, and any attempts at outside interference do not help
   create a calm atmosphere for dialogue on this complex and sensitive
   subject.

   23 June 2011

   (Description of Source: Moscow Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian
   Federation in Russian -- Official Website of the Russian Ministry of
   Foreign Affairs; URL: http://www.mid.ru)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   68) Back to Top
   Japan-U.S.alliance Should Not Go Beyond Bilateral Scope: Chinese Foreign
   Ministry
   Xinhua: "Japan-U.S.alliance Should Not Go Beyond Bilateral Scope: Chinese
   Foreign Ministry" - Xinhua
   Thursday June 23, 2011 10:18:35 GMT
   BEIJING, June 23 (Xinhua) -- China on Thursday said the Japan-U.S.alliance
   should not go beyond its bilateral scope.

   "Japan-U.S.alliance is a bilateral arrangement created under special
   historical conditions and should not go beyond its bilateral scope,"
   Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei told a news briefing on
   Thursday.Hong's comments came after a joint statement released by Japan
   and the United States calling for China to play a constructive role in
   regional stability.The statement was issued following the "two-plus-two"
   talks between Japan and the United States, involving U.S. Secretary of
   State Hillary Clinton, Defense Secretary Robert Gates and their Japanese
   counterparts."We notice the related report," Hong said, stressing China
   has always been a staunch advocate for regional peace a nd stability and
   an active player in boosting regional mutually-beneficial cooperation.Hong
   said China sticks to the path of peaceful development, pursues the
   defensive policy which is defensive in nature and is committed to
   developing friendly ties with all countries, especially neighboring
   countries."We expect related countries to respect this fact, take a
   responsible attitude, contribute more to regional peace and stability and
   promote mutual trust," Hong said.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in
   English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences
   (New China News Agency))

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   69) Back to Top
   Xinhua Insight: the Dala i Lama Myth Discovery
   Xinhua: "Xinhua Insight: the Dalai Lama Myth Discovery" - Xinhua
   Thursday June 23, 2011 08:56:13 GMT
   XINING, June 23 (Xinhua) -- Gonpo Tashi, a nephew of the Dalai Lama, has
   patronized for at least three decades the birthplace of the Tibetan
   spiritual leader at Hong'ai Village on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

   "I prepare this room for the Dalai Lama in the hope of his back home,"
   said the 65-year-old stocky Tibetan who showed Xinhua reporters a dark,
   12-square meters chamber with a richly-embroidered cushion on the throne
   that has been elegantly prepared for its supposed master.The chamber is on
   the top floor of a two-storey wooden house. Outside the chamber hangs a
   giant photo of the Fourteenth Dalai Lama Tenzin Gyatso as well as
   enshrines six Buddha statues and a yellow monk robe that Tenzin Gyatso
   used to wear.Gonpo meticulously dusts o ff furniture and ritual utensils
   every morning and dawn."I believe that his soul has already been here,
   though his human body hasn't yet," Gonpo said.Gonpo's aspiration reminded
   people of the late state leader Mao Zedong's call for the return of the
   fled Dalai Lama. But the hope seems narrower as the Dalai Lama was
   denounced by the Tibet Autonomous Regional Government as a "politician in
   monk's robes" who is trying to split the country.Gonpo built a bright
   yellow prayer hall on the original place where the Dalai Lama was born.
   The clean but thrifty residential court, consisting of the prayer hall and
   a two-storey wooden house, faces 4,000 meter-high snowy Tsongkha Gyiri, a
   widely-deemed sacred mountain which brought about good fengshui, or
   fortunate geomancy, to the family of the boy who was later believed the
   incarnate Dalai Lama."In sunny days, Tsongkha Gyiri looks like a sleeping
   Buddha on a lotus," Gonpo said, "Our village sits on the f lower plate,
   which indicates good fengshui."Standing in front of his house, Gonpo
   pointed at a white pagoda nearby. "It's famous in religion," he said. "Due
   to transport inconvenience, the Thirteenth Dalai Lama rode a mule on his
   trip from Lhasa to the Kumbum Monastery, then from Kumbum to Labrang. He
   stopped over, just in front of us, to take a long break. It was said that
   he made his determination at the sight of this holy mountain. He hoped
   that his reincarnation should be found nearby." THE MYTHSOne reason why
   the Thirteenth Dalai Lama chose to stop over was the sound relationship
   between the Dalai Lama and Taktser Rinpoche, a senior lama in the Tibetan
   Lamaist hierarchy who happened to be the eldest brother of Lhamo Thondup,
   the secular name of Tenzin Gyatso, who was born on July 6, 1935 and later
   reincarnated the Fourteenth Dalai Lama.Lhamo's poor farming family was,
   unusually, rich in high lamas. Altogether three out of seven siblings
   became t op lamas, with the Dalai Lama atop the pyramid of all Tibetan
   lamas.The boy ascended as a spiritual leader who mesmerized the faithful
   as well as gained mundane political celebrity in exile. He was granted the
   Nobel Peace Prize in 1989. He called himself "a simple Buddhist monk" but
   was accused by his homeland government of being an ill-intentioned
   politician and the chief rebel who promoted separatist movements in monk's
   robes. In Westerners' eyes though, he was no less than fodder for sound
   bites, photo-ops and newspaper front-page slots.Myths have fueled the
   mysticism and celebrity of the Dalai Lama. One myth is that Lhamo Thondup
   was the only candidate for the incarnation -- the rationale of which was
   he inerrably identified belongings of the Thirteenth Dalai Lama. But in
   line with the Tibetan Buddhist tradition, a handful of candidates should
   have been selected for the final pick.After his delegation signed with the
   People's Republic of China (PRC) central gov ernment the 17-Point
   Agreement on a peaceful settlement of Tibet in May 1951, the Fourteenth
   Dalai Lama telegraphed Chairman Mao Zedong to actively support the peace
   agreement in October. He now says the rapprochement was reached "under
   duress."In September 1954, the Dalai Lama, together with another Tibetan
   Buddhist leader Panchen Lama, went to Beijing for voting the state's top
   legislature and was himself elected a vice chairman of the National
   People's Congress (NPC) Standing Committee. He now asserts that this was a
   "visit (to) China for peace talks." What the Dalai Lama did in "China" was
   documented much more than he now officially acknowledges as "meeting with
   Mao Zedong and other Chinese leaders." He at least wrote a poem likening
   the paramount communist leader Mao as "the Brahma," the Hindu god of
   creation, and "the all-mighty sun," wishing Mao "a life to eternity."On
   the most intractable controver sy on his falling out with the PRC central
   government, the Dalai Lama wrote in a letter one day after the Lhasa riot
   on March 10, 1959, "Reactionary, evil elements are carrying out activities
   endangering me on the pretext of ensuring my safety. I am taking steps to
   calm things down." In his official Web site, however, he states that
   "Tibetan People's Uprising begins in Lhasa."The crisis led to his fleeing
   from Norbulingka Palace in Lhasa on March 17, 1959. A "POLITICAL MONK"As
   one leading figure of the Gelug school of Tibetan Buddhism, the Dalai
   Lama, believed an incarnation of Avalokiteshvara, stands as deity of
   compassion and a visible embodiment of Tibetan Buddhists' faith.Only three
   of the 14 reincarnations meaningfully ruled Tibetans, and the throne of
   the Dalai Lama was historically bolstered by China's central authorities
   of various dynasties. The reincarnation conducted by Rinpoches and the
   accreditation from the imperial courts were ins eparable parts of the
   whole system ensuring legitimacy of the Dalai Lama and his ruling over
   Tibet.In 1653, the title of the Dalai Lama was accredited by the royal
   Qing authorities. Emperor Shunzhi recognized the Fifth Dalai Lama and
   granted a gold conferring letter and a gold seal, thus officially ensuring
   legitimacy of the Dalai Lama in Tibet.In April 1713, Qing Emperor Kangxi
   conferred the title of Bainqen Erdeni on the fifth Panchen Lama and
   granted a gold conferring letter and a gold seal. This marked the
   beginning of the official title Bainqen Erdeni.The Qing Dynasty
   acknowledged the same status of the Dalai Lama and the Panchen Lama. The
   two highest lamas have to be approved and mandated by Qing emperors. In
   history, an angry Qing Emperor Qianlong once decreed to stop reincarnation
   of a rebellious Tibetan Buddhist lama, which left his sect dying
   out.Gradually rising as a regional spiritual and political leader, the
   Dalai Lama sweated for his long journey to the world stage. His first
   trips outside India were in 1967 to two Buddhist countries of Japan and
   Thailand. The first European trip was in 1973 and the first U.S. one in
   1979, the year in which the United States and the PRC established
   diplomatic relations.Going into exile subsequently made him a star. In all
   the 124 awards or honorary doctorates he has collected from around the
   world, 123 were granted after he fled his homeland. Rubbing elbows with
   him somewhat became a fad or a manifestation of moral dignity.The "simple
   Buddhist monk," who was said to wake up usually at 3:30 a.m. and spent his
   first four hours every day in meditation, frequently indulged his secular
   enjoyment in being interviewed by world top media.An online U.S.
   Department of Justice document recorded the Dalai Lama's visit to the
   United States from April 10 to 24 in 2008. During the two-week trip, the
   monk, often with his brand big smile and deep laugh, talked politics and
   China's "crackdown" on the March 14 Lhasa riot in NBC, CBS and NPR, to
   just name a few. He also met with U.S. Under Secretary of State for
   Democracy and Global Affairs Paula J. Dobriansky, who contributed to an
   op-ed piece to the Washington Post the day after their rendezvous.The
   spiritual leader's "sideline" activities supplemented his full-time job,
   prayer offerings and religious teachings which were mainly arranged by the
   New York-based Office of Tibet and beefed up by lobbying of
   pro-independence groups. THE TALE OF A VILLAGEAs the religious leader, the
   Dalai Lama spent one third of his life in his homeland, including four
   years in the remote mud-and-stone village of Hong'ai, formerly known as
   Taktser, on the eastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Hong'ai Village,
   symbolic of the rough and sterile landscape of the plateau, shows little
   traces of the Shangri-La that filtered into Western minds since James
   Hilton created the surreal image of such a holy land.A total of 274 villag
   ers are now living in the same place that the highest Tibetan lama was
   born. More than 70 percent of the 69 families own televisions. Cell phones
   are almost everywhere. The village also sees at least 16 motorbikes, but
   not a single Internet-linked computer. Gonpo Tashi purchased the village's
   first private car, an economical 2003 Daihatsu Charde, later changed it to
   a better one, a Mazda 3.Gonpo said, "It's not unusual that people in this
   village buy cars. It costs no more than 90,000 yuan (13,800 U.S. dollars)
   to buy a car like mine. Many people can afford it. Besides, the government
   subsidizes purchase of cars with emission lower than 1.6 liters."Next but
   one to Gonpo Tashi's courtyard, there lives Tsihen's family. The 45-year
   old Tibetan woman, however, is not able to afford a similar car. Her
   family earns money mainly from farming. Her daughter got married and her
   son works as an eatery waiter in Xining, the capital of Qinghai Province,
   1.5-hour bus ride from t he village. Tsihen's best hope this year is to go
   with her husband and her son to dig caterpillar fungus in mountains. She
   also wishes to buy a car and his son can get married soon.Tsihen said, "I
   hope we can earn as much as 50,000 yuan from digging caterpillar fungus.
   My son will go back to his eatery after the digging season."Twenty-four
   years ago, Tsihen traveled 30 kilometers to marry a Hong'ai villager, who
   is also Tibetan.Like many other Tibetans, Tsihen knew prestige of the
   village before she got married and neighbored the well-known family." An
   unusual figure was born in the village, we often go to pray by burning
   incense for the blessing," Tsihen said.Gonpo was pleased that people,
   including Tibetans and Mandarins, flocked to his house for paying
   homage."It's quite harmonious and relaxed for worshipping," Gonpo
   said.Tsihen, however, seems not to buy the fengshui theory for her
   underdeveloped village."I don't think fengshui here is good," Tsihen said.
   "The road is rough and the life is tough."Hong'ai Village is not connected
   to any rail line. Villagers have to walk an hour before taking buses to
   the closest town of Ping'an."We have to find jobs outside," she said,
   "even a good fengshui doesn't mean a substantial earning.""We don't
   usually know what Buddhas' lives are. But I guess their lives are
   different from ours. One thing people are very sure is that being a living
   Buddha is so great, because all articles of tribute and all donated money
   belong to living buddhas' families. They don't have to pay for
   living."Gonpo's income comes from the public office he has served since
   1998 and donations from the Dalai Lama followers. Gonpo spent at least
   500,000 yuan in house maintenance in recent years."You can see on the wall
   from the first Dalai Lama to the Fourteenth Dalai Lama," said Gonpo,
   referring the Thangka paintings. RELIGION AND LIFEThemes of Than gka
   paintings are usually on Buddhas and the Sacred Lake, which is Lhamo
   Lhatso in southern Tibet.After the Thirteenth Dalai Lama died, the regent,
   himself a high lama, looked into the waters of Lhamo Lhatso. Together with
   other auspicious signs, the regent allegedly saw a three-story monastery
   with a turquoise and gold roof and a path running from it to a hill. The
   direction the dead Dalai Lama faced indicated his reincarnate would be
   from northeast of Lhasa, the seat of the Dalai Lama.Lhamo Lhatso was
   believed vital to the most mythical reincarnation system in which high
   lamas claimed to be reborn and continue their important work. The
   reincarnated, also known as tulku, were usually searched within the
   Tibetan areas by senior lamas surrounding the deceased tulku.The
   gold-roofed monastery appeared in the Sacred Lake was Serdong Chenmo Hall
   at Kumbum, whose importance was decided by the status of the holy site
   where Tsong Kha Pa, founder of the Gelug school of Tibetan Buddhi sm, was
   born. Top clerics from Lhasa believed the soul boy would live within a
   one-day horse ride from Kumbum.Dzongkhang Rinpoche at Kumbum said, "The
   soul still lives even if the body has gone. This is reincarnated or tulku.
   According to Tibetan Buddhism, all lives will experience reincarnation.
   The way people cultivate themselves in this life decides whether they go
   to Heaven or go to Hell. There are various categories in the reincarnated
   system. Every Tibetan aspires that continuous rebirth of great souls would
   lead to creation of Buddhas."Tibetan Buddhism combines Exoteric and
   Esoteric Buddhism. Compared with Exoteric Buddhism, Esoteric Buddhism
   calls for shorter period of self-cultivation since it has more rigid
   religious disciplines. It sometimes needs spiritual retreats. Those who
   strictly stick to the disciplines have great chance to lead to the
   creation of Buddhas.The 70-year-old high lama said, "It's inappropriate to
   call tulkus living Buddhas becaus e Buddhas need not to be reborn. We
   haven't become Buddhas. We are just ordinary people."Dzongkhang Rinpoche's
   view echoed similar remarks made by the Fourteenth Dalai Lama who called
   himself a "simple Buddhist monk."Dzongkhang Rinpoche said, "Being a
   Buddha, one has to shake off self and put all living creatures to an
   important place. One can become a Buddha only if he always puts others
   ahead of himself. Have we met this criterion? Not yet."(Description of
   Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for
   English-language audiences (New China News Agency))

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   70) Back to Top
   Chinglish Finds Funny Side of Language, Cultural Challenges Between U.S.
   And China
   Xinhua: "Chinglish Finds Funny Side of Language, Cultural Challenges
   Between U.S. And China" - Xinhua
   Thursday June 23, 2011 23:49:58 GMT
   CHICAGO, June 23 (Xinhua) -- So what happens when people who are desperate
   to communicate with each other can't speak the same language?

   Constant screaming, hysterical laughter, uncontrollable body language and
   lots of subtitles..exactly what was happening at Chicago's downtown
   Goodman Theatre when the hilarious new comedy Chinglish unfolded in front
   of a much delighted audience Wednesday night.This world-premiere
   production of Chinglish marks the Goodman debut of one of the most
   extraordinary writers now working in American theater. Best known for his
   Tony Award-winning play M. Butterfly, David Henry Hwang explores the
   complex international culture-clash with incredible humor an d insight in
   his first collaboration with the Goodman.Acutely relevant to today's
   cross-cultural business climate, Chinglish tells the story of an ordinary
   Midwest American businessman, Daniel Cavanaugh, who trys to land a
   lucrative deal for his family's signage business in the provincial capital
   city of Guiyang in the midland of China. After traveling to Guiyang,
   Cavanaugh finds himself in the middle of ongoing obstacles from unreliable
   translators and cultural oddities, to confused relationships and a
   surprising turn of events.Performed in both English and Mandarin with
   English subtitles, the comedy is full of misunderstandings and
   misinterpretations which reveal the daunting challenge of doing business
   in China, a country with completely different languages, cultures and ways
   of communication to Western countries.During the Artists Talk before
   Wednesday's evening performance, Hwang spoke about his inspiration for
   Chinglish. Hwang explained, "I have been traveling to China a lot over the
   past five or six years. I realized that China and America are both
   incredibly interested in each other but neither really knows much about
   the other."He continued, "And I started to think it would be interesting
   to write a play about how to do business in China and the important role
   that language plays in this process." Hwang hopes that the comedy will not
   only show how isolated we still are in the modern world, but also
   illustrate the importance of bringing the two cultures together.When asked
   why he chose Chicago as the world premiere city for Chinglish, Hwang cited
   Chicago being one of the most China- friendly cities in the U.S. as just
   one of many reasons. As for his choice of the city of Guiyang in China,
   Hwang said, "It is a relatively smaller city in China which is a good
   comparison with Cleveland in the United States."During the production, the
   team encountered many offstage challenges as well. Director Leigh
   Silverman, who directed Lisa Kron's Well on Broadway, said during
   Wednesday's Artists Talk, "The casting was an incredible challenge for us.
   It is very hard to find a white guy who can speak perfect Chinese and can
   also act. We spent one and a half years auditioning more than 100 people
   from the U.S., Canada, Hong Kong, Sydney and Beijing. But we are happy
   that we found the perfect one. " The Chinglish cast is the most
   geographically far-ranging in Goodman history.In addition to the unique
   casting requirements, an extensive amount of research was necessary to
   achieve the high level of cultural authenticity in the play. Both Hwang
   and Silverman traveled to China many times and hired China culture
   consultants and qualified translators throughout the production
   process.Suzanne Seed, a Chicago award-winning author, poet and
   photojournalist, enjoyed the comedy immensely. She told Xinhua, " It has
   wonderful pacing, the back and forth of the two languages, and the
   craziness of misconceptions. All the confusion is very funny but very hard
   to do. It is actually not just about the words and the translations, but
   also the attitudes behind the value systems and the relationships of the
   people."Another audience member, Paula Giannini, enjoyed the show despite
   the incessant screaming. She said, "I found the play so well-structured,
   so clean and so right to the point. It is a very nice production."Both
   Seed and Giannini agreed that the language and cultural misunderstanding
   is a universal theme that could happen at any country in the
   world.Chinglish will be performed in Chicago's Goodman Theatre through
   July 24th. Established in 1925, Goodman Theatre has been a part of life in
   Chicago for over 80 years, each season presenting the work of an
   extraordinary group of local, national and international
   artists.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's
   official news service for English-language audiences (New China News
   Agency))

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   71) Back to Top
   Chinese Consulate General in Montreal Inaugurated
   Xinhua: "Chinese Consulate General in Montreal Inaugurated" - Xinhua
   Thursday June 23, 2011 13:45:22 GMT
   MONTREAL, Canada, June 22 (Xinhua) -- China has inaugurated its latest
   consulate general in Montreal Wednesday, the fourth to be opened as part
   of growing ties with Canada.

   In his address at the inauguration ceremony, Chinese Deputy Minister of
   Foreign Affairs Song Tao thanked Canadian governments at different levels
   and the local Chinese communities for the opening of the consulate
   general, which joins consulates general in Vancouver, Calgary and
   Toronto.Song said the event clearly showed mutual beneficial achievements
   had been made consecutively with a pattern of cooperation in all fields
   and at all levels following the successful mutual visits by Chinese
   President Hu Jintao and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper over the
   past two years.He said China was looking to promote cooperation and
   exchanges with Canada in the fields of economy and trade, science and
   technology, education and culture among others with the provinces of
   Quebec and New Brunswick, which is under the jurisdiction of the new
   consulate general.In his response, Deepak Obhrai, Parliamentary Secretary
   to the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Canada, said the new consulate
   marked an important milestone in Canada-China relations and would benefit
   bilateral cooperation and realize mutual prosperity.In her first public
   appearance, Zhao Jiangping, Consul General at the new post, t old some 500
   guests in the Montreal Conference and Exhibition Center she felt honored
   with her assignment to serve the Canadian as well as Chinese citizens in
   their increasingly close exchanges.She invited the Chinese and Canadian
   officials to unveil a bronze nameplate of her consulate and an envelope
   specially designed by Chinese artists to mark the opening of the
   consulate.Quebec, the largest province in Canada by area and the only one
   whose sole official language is French at the provincial level, plays a
   leading role in Canada's economy, especially the knowledge economy such as
   aerospace, information and communication technologies, biotechnology and
   the pharmaceutical industry.New Brunswick, one of Canada's three Maritime
   provinces with about one third of its population speaking French, have
   modern, service-based economies dominated by the health care, educational,
   retail, finance, and insurance sectors in its urban areas, while the rural
   primary economy is best known fo r forestry, mining, mixed farming and
   fishing.China established diplomatic relations with Canada in 1970 after
   Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau recognized the People's Republic of
   China, becoming one of the first Western countries to do so.Relations have
   generally been stable since relations were established, and China is
   currently Canada's second largest trading partner after the United States.
   Canada is China's 13th largest.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in
   English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences
   (New China News Agency))

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   72) Back to Top
   Many Dragged into Muddy Waters
   Editorial by Mary Ma: Many Dragg ed into Muddy Waters; headline as
   provided by source - The Standard Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 08:02:20 GMT
   As the largest shareholder, Paulson &amp;amp; Co held more than 34 million
   shares in the mainland tree-plantation operator.But Paulson had to unload
   the entire stake in the embattled company following a damning report by a
   young man who was unknown in financial circles a year ago.Market analysts
   put Paulson's losses in Sino-Forest at US$720 million (HK$5.62 billion) -
   a staggering sum.It was Carson Block, the founder of Hong Kong-based Muddy
   Waters Research, who triggered the recent crises for Chinese companies
   listed in the United States or Canada.

   Who is this 35-year-old man who recently took down so many mainland firms?
   According to an interview with Barron's, the New Jersey-born,
   California-raised Block graduated from law school in Chicago and moved to
   China in 2005, in the belief that the Middle Kingdom would offer him more
   entrepreneurial opportunities.He lived in Shanghai, where he came across a
   stock - a reverse merger - that he thought was a fraud. So, he started
   Muddy Waters Research, so named after the catchy Chinese phrase "muddy
   waters make it easy to catch fish."But Block has never been shy about the
   fact Muddy Waters isn't only about research. It also buys and sells stocks
   that it tracks. As expected, it has made lucrative gains from short
   positions built on companies its reports were about to hit.In another
   published interview, Block responded to criticism that as a short seller,
   he had a vested interest in a stock diving, saying: "I absolutely do,
   which is why I disclose on the front page of the reports that I'm short
   (selling)."Perhaps veteran market commentator David Webb is the closest
   comparison that we have here in uncovering a listed firm's wrongs.
   However, Block has proved to be far more deadly fo r the Chinese
   companies. His reports have shaken a number of firms, including Rino
   International, whose share price plunged 60 percent; Orient Paper, down 50
   percent; and Duoyuan Global Water, shedding 40 percent. China MediaExpress
   was delisted.I wouldn't be surprised that there's truth in Block's
   reports, as market players know how mainland businesses are sometimes run.
   But I doubt that his reports are accurate from the first page to the last.
   As in the case with Orient Paper, an investigation by three leading
   auditing firms failed to substantiate Muddy Waters' claims.Nevertheless,
   we're talking about the money world that very often reacts insanely to
   truth - wherever it lies.However, what alarms me most is the fact that
   about 20 Chinese companies were suspended from trading in North America,
   and four delisted following Block's reports.I can't help questioning
   what's wrong with the local listing and regulatory regimes that have
   clearly failed in their respective roles in m aking listing
   checks.Problematic firms should be condemned. The concerned stock
   exchanges and regulators must also be blamed.

   (Description of Source: Hong Kong The Standard Online in English --
   Website of free-of-charge English-language weekday newspaper focused on
   business news and featuring balanced reporting on local, China,
   international, entertainment, and sports news; sister paper of the
   Chinese-language Sing Tao Jih Pao (Sing Tao Daily News); URL:
   http://www.thestandard.com.hk)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   73) Back to Top
   US Supports India's 'Full Membership' to Nuclear Suppliers Group
   Report by Dr Jassim Taqui: "US to support Indias NSG membership" -
   Pakistan Observer Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 11:42:19 GMT
   According to a paper circulated among NSG members, the US proposed that
   adherence to NPT need not be a " pre-requisite" for India's membership to
   NSG. Ironically, the US was a leading nation in forming NSG in response to
   India's 1974 nuclear test, which New Delhi described as " peaceful" blast!

   This American step is in line with the Indo-US joint statement issued on
   November 8, 2010, which states " the United states intends to support
   India's full membership in the four multilateral control regimes(Nuclear
   Suppliers Group, Missile Technology Control Regime, Australia Group and
   Wassenaar Arrangement)."

   The statement does not even mention the fulfillment of non-proliferation
   criteria. The US administration used its influence on the nuclear cartel
   to give India a nuclear exemption in 2008. Now, India wants more. It wants
   the NSG to lift the restriction on transfer of enrichment and reprocessing
   technology.

   Now India is having a field day in nuclear technology. It can get US
   nuclear material and equipment without committing to full-scope
   safeguards.

   ================

   (Description of Source: Islamabad Pakistan Observer Online in English --
   Website of the pro-military daily with readership of 5,000. Anti-India,
   supportive of Saudi policies, strong supporter of Pakistan's nuclear and
   missile program. Chief Editor Zahid Malik is the author of books on
   nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan; URL: http://www.pakobserver.net)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   74) Back to Top
   Pakistan, India Must Resolve Issues Without Looking At Western Countries
   Article by Afshain Afzal: "Pak-India Foreign Secretaries Talks" - Pakistan
   Observer Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 09:47:05 GMT
   arranged fresh flowers for the discussion table to make Foreign
   Secretaries talks between India and Pakistan more cordial. We would be
   having our friends from India on 23-24 June 2011, who fail to understand
   that why Pakistan is not blaming New Delhi for the cold blooded murder of
   Saleem Shahzad, Pakistani Olympian Abrar Hussain and terrorist attacks in
   Karachi and other cities. The situation in Sindh is also not hidden from
   anyone but not even a single official world from Islamabad has been heard
   by anyone.

   One expects breakthrough after Islamabad's softer tone with New Delhi on
   various issues and preventing anyone to use its soil against its
   traditional enemy. But there are serious doubts that New Delhi would ever
   be able to step outside the briefing and talking points handed over to
   Indian Foreign Ministry by Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), Defence
   Intelligence Agency (DIA), Intelligence Bureau (IB) and Military
   Intelligence (MI).

   Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao cannot utter a single sentence at her own
   during her meeting with Pakistani counterpart Salman Bashir. We have seen
   the fate of Madhuri Gupta and letters of displeasures to a number of
   diplomats. As expected, New Delhi would focus on Mumbai attacks and would
   highlight points US agencies claim to have extracted from absconder from
   Pakistan Army namely Tahawwur Hussain Rana. One really wonders if a person
   is not loyal to the Armed Forces of a country how he can risk his life to
   work for the intelligence agencies or banned organization of same country.
   The CIA agents, David Coleman Headley alias Daood Geelani and Tahawwur
   Hussain Rana are enemies of Pakistan a nd government of Pakistan has
   announced reward on them.

   Long time back, cases against them were filed in the Police stations and
   their arrest was been ordered and they are absconding. It is irony that
   India would rely on the evidences by these two filthy persons. It is not
   far away and can be checked from the files of Indian intelligence agencies
   what they had been doing in Mumbai. The witnesses are also there that
   neither they had any link with any religious party nor the Jehadi
   organization. Had these individuals been the members of Lashkar-e-Tayyiaba
   they would not be having such stinky characters. What India would say
   about links of these individuals with Indian Bollywood stars and officials
   of Intelligence Bureau? As usual, hype has been created.

   Last time it was cross firing on the Line of Control (LoC) each side
   blaming other for the aggression and this time it is issue of Navies of
   these countries. What a smart way to lead the talks towards failure. Thi s
   time there was hope for progress in the talks but again the Armed Forces
   of both the countries are entangled in a new controversy. Islamabad claims
   that PNS Babur, which is part of the international combined task force on
   anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden, had been escorting MV Suez,
   when the Indian Naval Ship (INS) Godavari moved dangerously close to PNS
   Babur and brushed against it almost 100 nautical miles east of Port
   Salalah.

   Interestingly both the warships were providing cover for MV Suez that has
   released 22 hostages on board after 10 months in captivity, including
   eleven Egyptians, six Indians, four Pakistanis and one Sri Lankan. INS
   Godavari claims that she had joined up with MV Suez on 16 June 2011 to
   escort the ship. Obviously, this incident would have some impact and there
   are chances of self engineered other incidents of infiltration of
   terrorists or firing at LoC that may change the canvas of the talks. Of
   course, such grievances are not going to allow the talks to end in a
   success story. One really believe that we should keep on talking,
   irrespective of the results but how long the Foreign Offices and the
   governments would be playing in the hands of intelligence agencies.

   A new chapter of misunderstanding and suspicion has been created. If we
   look back the record of the talks each time something happens wrong that
   fails the talks. We have a lot of hope from Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao
   and if she is able to break the dead lock her name will be written in
   golden words in the history of both the countries. If we recall, it was
   Indian Foreign Minister SM Krishna in New York September last, when he
   said that Pakistan must fulfill its commitment of not allowing its
   territory to be used for terrorism directed against India. He said,
   "Pakistan cannot impart lessons to us on democracy and human rights... if
   Pakistan fulfills its commitments, it would significantly help reducing
   the trust deficit between th e two countries. He added, "We are
   neighbours, and as neighbours we have an obligation to work together."
   What Pakistan wants from India is simple, "Just allow us to live our lives
   on the basis of our own ideology." Pakistan also want New Delhi to discuss
   the outstanding issue with Pakistan including plebiscite in Jammu and
   Kashmir to allow Kashmiris to express their right of self determination,
   the issue of Rann of Kutch, Siachin and rights of minorities in India. The
   western countries, from whom we got independence after so many sacrifices,
   would never like that our problems are solved and we live like friends and
   good neighbours. What CIA, Mossad and DIA is doing in India and Pakistan
   is no more any secret. One must ask a question to ourselves; are we
   sincere to our country. If the answer is in affirmative we must solve all
   pending issue without delay and get come out of the spell of our enemies.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad Pakistan Observ er Online in English --
   Website of the pro-military daily with readership of 5,000. Anti-India,
   supportive of Saudi policies, strong supporter of Pakistan's nuclear and
   missile program. Chief Editor Zahid Malik is the author of books on
   nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan; URL: http://www.pakobserver.net)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   75) Back to Top
   India Criticizes US Over Treatment of Diplomats
   AFP Report: "India Blasts US Over Treatment of its Diplomats" - AFP
   Thursday June 23, 2011 07:41:02 GMT
   India has reacted angrily to a court case lodged against a diplomat in New
   York who is accused of sexually harassing his house maid and treating her
   like a slave.

   The maid, 45-year-old Santosh Bhardwaj, filed a lawsuit on Monday in a US
   court against India's consul general Prabhu Dayal and his family, claiming
   she was under-paid, sexually harassed and prevented from travelling.

   India's foreign ministry said late Wednesday it was "disappointed and
   deeply concerned" that Indian diplomats and their family members were
   being apparently targeted in the United States.

   Earlier this year, the daughter of another diplomat in New York was
   detained by police for more than 24 hours on suspicion of sending abusive
   emails to her school teacher. She was later cleared of wrongdoing.

   "We are disappointed and surprised at the allegations against the consul
   general of India in New York, Mr Prabhu Dayal, by his former employee,
   which appear to be motivated and baseless," said ministry spokesman Vishnu
   Prakash.

   "Such acti ons impede the ability of the individuals in question to
   discharge their official responsibilities and cause untold mental
   harassment and anguish and they cannot be dismissed lightly."

   Dayal, in New York since 2008, has previously served as ambassador to
   Mexico and Kuwait.

   In January, the Indian foreign ministry recalled a diplomat posted at the
   British High Commission in London who was accused of beating his wife.

   Last year, another diplomat posted in Islamabad was arrested by Indian
   authorities on suspicion of spying for arch-rival Pakistan.

   rn/adp/jit

   (Description of Source: Hong Kong AFP in English -- Hong Kong service of
   the independent French press agency Agence France-Presse)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   76) Back to Top
   India, US to fast-track bilateral investment treaty dialogue - PTI News
   Agency
   Thursday June 23, 2011 07:14:36 GMT
   Washington, 23 June: India and the United States have agreed to fast-track
   technical negotiations for early conclusion of a Bilateral Investment
   Agreement during a meeting between Commerce and Industry Minister Anand
   Sharma and US Trade Representative Ron Kirk.

   "We agreed to re-invigorate the Trade Policy Forum (TPF) and make it more
   robust and effective in resolving bilateral commercial issues, while
   maintaining the political leadership of the process," Sharma told Indian
   reporters after the meeting yesterday.

   "The two sides also agreed to fast-track the technical negotiations for an
   early conclusion of the India-US Bilateral Investment Agreement," S harma
   said, adding there would be two rounds of negotiations before the next
   meeting of the ministerial level TPF, expected to be held in October,
   2011, in India.

   Reaffirming that the TPF is the premier dialogue for addressing trade and
   investment issues between the two countries, a separate USTR statement
   said the two agreed that the TPF should be strengthened to better
   facilitate resolution of outstanding issues of concern and looked forward
   to a constructive meeting of the TPF later this year.

   "The booming bilateral trade and investment flows between the United
   States and India support tens of thousands of critical jobs in both
   countries and we know that will only grow significantly in the coming
   years," Kirk said.

   "However, to continue and grow our successes, both India and the United
   States must take concrete steps to resolve long-standing market access and
   investment concerns," he said.

   Describing his meeting with Kirk as productive, Sharma said the talks
   covered the entire range of issues in bilateral trade and commercial
   engagement.

   Sharma apprised Kirk of various policy approaches being taken by India to
   sustain its high GDP growth and the opportunities it offered for US
   businesses to develop partnerships with the Indian private sector.

   Sharma mentioned infrastructure, agriculture and agro processing, food
   processing, cold chain logistics and manufacture of electronic devices,
   including chip design, as areas with bilateral cooperative possibilities.

   He also raised issues of importance for the Indian industry in their
   business operations in the United States.

   The minister said the US welcomed the unilateral action taken by India in
   reducing tariffs on a number of products, including raw pistachios,
   cranberry products, seedless raisins, processed foods, medical equipment,
   fertilisers, chemicals and heavy machinery.

   The USTR also appreciated India's efforts toward increased cooperation in
   services and on improving the investment environment, he said.

   According to the USTR, the two leaders recognised the challenges that
   remain in the ongoing discussions with regard to the Doha Round, but
   expressed their commitment to exploring options for productive next steps.

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   77) Back to Top
   India Concerned Over US Probing on Baseless Allegations Against
   Consul-General
   Unattributed report: Ministry Backs Diplomat, Upset at U.S. Probe - The
   Hindu Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 06:42:15 GMT
   NEW DELHI: While backing a New York-based Indian diplomat against charges
   levelled by his former employee, the Foreign Office also expressed its
   disappointment with the manner in which the authorities in the United
   States have gone about investigating this and other instances in the
   past."We are disappointed and surprised at the allegations against
   Consul-General of India in New York Prabhu Dayal, by his former employee,
   which appear to be motivated and baseless," said Ministry of External
   Affairs spokesperson Vishnu Prakash. Mr. Dayal is a senior diplomat of
   impeccable personal and professional integrity, he added.At the same time,
   Mr. Prakash said New Delhi was "disappointed and deeply concerned" that
   Indian diplomats and their family members should be targeted in such a
   manner by a friendly country such as the United States."Such actions
   impede the ability of the individuals in question to discharge their
   official responsibilities as well as cause untold mental harassment a nd
   anguish. They cannot be dismissed lightly. The treatment being meted out
   to Indian diplomats or their family members has resulted in negative
   public perceptions in India with attendant implications," added Mr.
   Prakash.PTI reports:Mr. Dayal has been slapped with forced labour charges
   after his 45-year-old maid Santosh Bhardwaj accused him of treating her as
   a "slave" and not paying enough.He has termed the allegations as
   "mischievous and malicious lies" and apprised the Indian government about
   the case.He said Bhardwaj suddenly disappeared in January 2010 and has now
   re-appeared with these allegations.

   (Description of Source: Chennai The Hindu Online in English -- Website of
   the most influential English daily of southern India. Strong focus on
   South Indian issues. It has abandoned its neutral editorial and reportage
   policy in the recent few years after its editor, N Ram, a Left party
   member, fell out with the Bharatiya Janata Party-led gover nment and has
   become anti-BJP, pro-Left, and anti-US with perceptible bias in favor of
   China in its write-ups. Gives good coverage to Left parties and has
   reputation of publishing well-researched editorials and commentaries; URL:
   www.hindu.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   78) Back to Top
   Official Sources Say India 'Averse' To Signing 3 Military Pacts With US
   Report by Sandeep Dikshit: India Averse To Inking 3 Military Pacts With
   U.S. - The Hindu Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 06:10:54 GMT
   NEW DELHI: As the dust over rejection of two U.S. companies from the Rs.
   11,000-crore Indian Air Force (IAF) tender for fighter aircraft settles,
   official sources said the United States would also have to reconcile with
   India's unwillingness to sign three military pacts.The Obama
   administration was extremely upset after Boeing and Lockheed Martin were
   knocked out of the race for combat aircraft.The issue figured in the May 9
   conversation between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the U.S. President
   Barack Obama after the U.S. Embassy contended that the evaluation was not
   transparent.The final report listed some qualitative requirements that the
   U.S. companies could not meet. But these deficiencies were not mentioned
   in the initial report, claimed the U.S.However, India has been unwavering
   in backing the evaluation of some 600 qualitative requirements of the six
   fighters in contention. While the U.S. was denied a strategic foothold in
   the IAF's offensive capabilities segment, it could face continued
   stonewalling with respect to three military pacts -- Logistics Sharing Ag
   reement (LSA), Communication Interoperability and Security Memorandum of
   Agreement (CISMOA) and the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for
   Geo-spatial Cooperation (BECA).The Indian attitude a month ahead of the
   strategic dialogue between External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna and the
   U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is to keep the issue away from the
   main agenda.No hidden objectiveThe U.S. argues that there is no hidden aim
   behind the LSA. It is an inter-bank type of clearing arrangement -- there
   will be periodical settlement of accounts for the use of each other's
   facilities.For instance, Indian Navy ships have had 45 refuellings from
   the U.S. ships in the Gulf of Aden. Under LSA, payments need not be made
   each time. The expenses could be adjusted against the money owed to India
   if U.S. ships came calling here.But the Indian leadership feels that the
   LSA will give the impression of a strategic agreement with the Pentagon in
   military operations. After the Defenc e-Secretary level Defence Policy
   Group (DPG) meeting in Washington earlier this year, both sides had agreed
   to work towards a more "mature arrangement." But there was no "question of
   a blanket agreement," said official sources.India confronts a technical
   issue in signing the CISMOA though officials feel it sounds heavier than
   it is. They also feel that interoperability, as argued by the U.S., need
   not be dependent on signing CISMOA.The communication will be encrypted and
   no other algorithm can be used on the system. During joint exercises, U.S.
   personnel sit on Indian ships with their own equipment.But on aircraft
   there is no space for two or three different kinds of equipment.The Navy
   and the Air Force have said they had no problems either way but
   politically this remains a sensitive issue though officials say it is not
   as heavy as it sounds.India also has reservations on the third military
   agreement sought by the U.S. -- BECA. The U.S. says the pact wil l enable
   C-130 and C-17 planes to fly close to the ground.This entails installation
   of ground sensors which none in the security establishment except the
   Defence Research &amp;amp; Development Organisation is keen on.

   (Description of Source: Chennai The Hindu Online in English -- Website of
   the most influential English daily of southern India. Strong focus on
   South Indian issues. It has abandoned its neutral editorial and reportage
   policy in the recent few years after its editor, N Ram, a Left party
   member, fell out with the Bharatiya Janata Party-led government and has
   become anti-BJP, pro-Left, and anti-US with perceptible bias in favor of
   China in its write-ups. Gives good coverage to Left parties and has
   reputation of publishing well-researched editorials and commentaries; URL:
   www.hindu.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   79) Back to Top
   New Delhi To Appoint Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao as Indian Envoy to US
   Unattributed report: US Envoy Hat for Nirupama - The Telegraph Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 05:10:12 GMT
   (Description of Source: Kolkata The Telegraph online in English -- Website
   of Kolkata's highest circulation English daily, owned by ABP Group, with a
   flagship publication Anandabazar Patrika in Bengali. Known for in-depth
   coverage of east and northeast India issues, and India-Bangladesh
   relations. Maintains an impartial editorial policy. Circulation 457,100;
   URL: www.telegraphindia.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright hold
   er. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.

   80) Back to Top
   Unfriendly Atmosphere Prevails During Peace-Keeping Drills
   Report by Wassana Nanuam: "Unease at peace-keeping drills" - Bangkok Post
   Online
   Friday June 24, 2011 01:45:57 GMT
   A week into a peace-keeping drill led by the United States, Thai soldiers
   say there was a "wall" between them and fellow Cambodian troops that is
   preventing them from developing a bond with one another.

   The drill, called Ayara Guardian 2011, includes about 400 soldiers from 13
   countries, including Thailand and Cambodia. The exercise started June 18
   and runs until July 1 at the Infantry Centre of Thanarat Camp in Pran Buri
   district.

   Thailand has 60 soldiers in the drills, and the Cambod ian Peace-keeping
   Centre sent 48 troops. Other countries that have sent soldiers include the
   Philippines, Mongolia, Nepal, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Rwanda.

   A Thai participant said Cambodian supervisors had ordered their
   subordinates not to talk to or befriend Thai soldiers during the drill.

   "We only talk to each other when it's necessary. So, the atmosphere is not
   as friendly as before," said the Thai soldier who asked for anonymity. He
   said some Cambodian officers could speak Thai, but they avoid talking to
   Thai soldiers so they don't unintentionally leak information about the
   country's military.

   "Sawasdee" is the only word the Cambodians are willing to say when meeting
   Thai soldiers.

   Sgt Long Tony, one of the five female Cambodian soldiers taking part in
   the drill, however, said there was no distrust between Thai and Cambodian
   soldiers.

   Sgt Long said she had attended the US-led peace-keeping drill before but
   this was the first time that she joined one in Thailand.

   She admitted that she had not talked to Thai soldiers much. But it was
   just because Thai soldiers were not keen on speaking English.

   All she can do is smile at the Thai soldiers during the drills.

   Sgt Yaren Chea, 24, another female Cambodian soldier, said the
   confrontation between Thai and Cambodian troops along the the two
   countries' border between February and May had nothing to do with the
   perceived gap between them at the Ayara drill.

   "Whatever has happened at the border, the drills with Thai and Cambodian
   soldiers have went by as normal. We go through the training together and
   we do talk to each other," she said.

   (Description of Source: Bangkok Bangkok Post Online in English -- Website
   of a daily newspaper widely read by the foreign community in Thailand;
   provides good coverage on Indochina. Audited hardcopy circulation of
   83,000 as of 2009. URL: http://www.bangkokpost.com.)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   81) Back to Top
   Legitimacy vs. criminality
   "Legitimacy Vs. Criminality" -- Jordan Times Headline - Jordan Times
   Online
   Friday June 24, 2011 02:31:36 GMT
   (Jordan Times) - By Rami G. Khouri A fter spending a few days this week in
   European cities with American and European diplomats and experts on Middle
   Eastern issues, I sense that the confusion and convolution levels among
   Western powers vis-a-vis Arab-Israeli issues is at an all-time high.

   To reverse the othreat levelo analysis that Western powers use to
   describe the dangers they face from Middle East- or Asian-based
   terrorists, the Arab world right now faces an oextremely higho threat
   level of being at the receiving end of some really irrelevant and even
   dangerous American and European diplomacy.

   The proof is out there in plain sight for all to see: Dennis Ross and
   David Hale from the United States, and European Union High Representative
   for Foreign Affairs Catherine Ashton have been in the region during the
   past week, talking with top officials.

   In my 40 years of following Middle Eastern diplomacy, I have learned a few
   important lessons, two of which are: when American envoys, especially
   those of the Israel-first ideological leaning like Dennis Ross, visit the
   region, the best thing to do is to duck, so as to minimise the damage that
   is about to be done; and when European envoys visit the region, if you
   meet with them, you are sure to get a really fine meal, but nothing else
   of real substance in all likelihood.

   I say this because we h ave not had anything approaching meaningful
   diplomacy from the Americans or Europeans since the early and late 1970s,
   when Henry Kissinger orchestrated some Israeli-Egyptian-Syrian troop
   disengagement agreements, and the Europeans mustered the rare courage to
   make the Venice Declaration that supported Palestinian self determination.
   Ever since then, the Americans have been leaning towards or actively
   advocating Israeli perspectives, and the Europeans have tagged along in
   self-imposed diplomatic irrelevance.

   The idea that the United States or the EU can now prod Israelis and Arabs
   to resume serious negotiations is romantic at best and delusional at
   worst. So it is troubling to hear Ashton say, as she did a few days ago:
   oI look forward to meeting Israeli and Palestinian leaders and
   encouraging them to seize the opportunity and engage in negotiations. With
   the momentous events going on in North Africa and following President
   Barack ObamaAEs speech last month, it is mo re urgent than ever that we
   kickstart the Middle East peace process. I have proposed a meeting of the
   Quartet to help relaunch negotiations and will be looking for positive
   signs from all sides.o

   It is troubling because it is hard to think of a more chronic political
   failure in recent decades than the dead horse she calls othe Middle East
   peace processo. A main reason for this is the utter diplomatic and moral
   delinquency of the Quartet she still has faith in, and a central reason
   for that is the EUAEs proven lack of ability and will to use its
   influence within the Quartet to make things otherwise.

   So what in the world is she talking about?

   If this is not sad enough, it gets even worse.

   A new focus of American and European diplomacy these days is the hasty
   desire to prevent the Palestinians from asking the UN General Assembly in
   September to vote on recognising a Palestinian state in the lands occupied
   by Israel in 1967. This frenzy to thwart the UN vote is very much an
   Israeli-driven exercise, with the American president and occasional
   Europeans buying into the Israeli argument that this would
   odelegitimiseo Israel.

   So if we assume that Washington will do whatever Israel demands, then what
   should the Europeans do? Does Europe as a whole, or do some European
   states individually, have the strength of character and the political will
   to regain the spirit of their Venice Declaration and take a stand on
   diplomatic issues that affirms both the rule of law and the power of
   ethics-based foreign policy making?

   One way the Europeans might do this is to finally admit that the
   approaches of the past several decades have failed repeatedly and strike
   out on a new path whose central political aim is simple but powerful.

   Europe should make it abundantly clear that it is firmly and irrevocably
   committed to the security and well-being of Israel within its 1967
   borders, but that it simultaneously strongly op poses and will politically
   admonish the illegal acts of colonisation, siege, collective punishment,
   murder, disproportionate use of force and other crimes that Israel
   regularly commits in its actions against Palestinians.

   How refreshing it would be for Europe to lead a global movement that
   affirms the legitimacy of Israel, but punishes the illegitimacy of
   IsraelAEs criminality beyond its 1967 borders.

   ThatAEs asking a lot, I know, but when we were young, many years ago, we
   always knew that we could expect a lot from Europe, where respect for law
   and effective diplomacy were once hallmarks of its policy making. 24 June
   2011 (Description of Source: Amman Jordan Times Online in English --
   Website of Jordan Times, only Jordanian English daily known for its
   investigative and analytical coverage of controversial domestic issues;
   sister publication of Al-Ra'y; URL: http://www.jordantimes.com/) Material
   in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the sou rce
   cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder.
   Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.

   82) Back to Top
   Lebanese President Comments on New Government, Syria Developments
   Report by Rosanna Bu-Munsif: "Sulayman Tells Al-Nahar: The Government Is a
   New Experience That Could Succeed Through Performance; No Quarrel With 14
   March and I Will Call For Dialogue After Confidence and the Program
   Depends on the Participants" - Al-Nahar Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 15:18:09 GMT
   republic, has broken his media silence, which continued for several
   months, and explained a lot of what his guests quote him as saying
   inaccurately or incorrectly, as he says. In his interview with Al-Nahar

   , he spoke about several matters in li ght of the imminent future stage as
   a new government took office. The president of the republic made a call to
   General Michel Awn, head of the Change and Reform Bloc, yesterday for the
   first time after the campaigns that the latter launched on the president
   personally and the post of presidency. The president is trying to be
   optimistic about the next stage and to build on it. The president defended
   the composition of the new government on the eve of drafting the policy
   statement and the government winning confidence, and provided it with
   strong momentum. The president considers what happened in Tripoli to be
   important evidence of the ability of this government to maintain security
   stability. He expressed optimism that "it could spare Lebanon security
   upheavals." Among its merits is "protecting civil peace." He thinks that
   everything is linked to its performance, affirming that there is no
   quarrel between him and the 14 March Forces. He stressed that he wo uld
   call for resuming the dialogue after the government wins confidence,
   adding that his agenda does not include visiting the Syrian capital after
   confidence is won.

   President Sulayman had the interview with Al-Nahar after he listened to
   the speech that was delivered by Syrian President Bashar al-Asad at
   Damascus University. He captured the reform points that the Syrian
   president mentioned in his speech. While answering one question, Sulayman
   asserted that he is in constant touch with him and that he discusses with
   him Syrian developments. He also discussed with Turkish Prime Minister
   Recep Tayyip Erdogan, when he congratulated him upon winning the recent
   elections, the Syrian situation and ways to help Syria at this stage. He
   denied that he is planning to visit the Syrian capital once the government
   wins confidence "although there is nothing to prevent a visit in
   principle," as he says. However, the visit was not a subject for
   discussion between the two sid es.

   The president of the republic speaks about the situation Syria and some
   other countries in the region are witnessing to highlight the important
   pillars in the Lebanese system, which are basically founded on three
   points. First, democratic rotation, despite the impurities that mar this
   rotation occasionally. Second, a flexible economic system, which is based
   on two strong factors that support the economy: expatriates and investors.
   The flexibility of this system allows for keeping a strong margin for
   Lebanese initiative. Third, the Lebanese army, which proved, according to
   the president of the republic, and amid the roles played by armies in the
   developments of the region, from Tunisia to Egypt and others, the
   importance of the role played by the Lebanese army in maintaining
   democracy and public freedoms since the first demonstrations of the 14
   March Forces several years ago. In his opinion, this is a measure for the
   civilization of countries. He said that if we bu ild on these pillars, "we
   can create a state, instead of drowning in mazes that dissipate
   opportunities for growth and progress."

   On the question of the government, the president of the republic looks at
   the "half cup that is full, and not the empty half." He says that the
   incidents in Tripoli also erupted when he came to the presidency the first
   time and the situation was then brought under control. "The recent
   incidents were quickly brought under control, which indicates, as he says,
   the ability of the government to maintain stability. This test was
   successful in keeping the security situation. He said that this government
   could save Lebanon from security upheavals. Civil peace is protected by
   the political sides. If pe ace is not maintained by the politicians, then
   keeping security will take time. It appeared that there was a desire by
   everybody, including pro-government and opposition forces, to control
   these incidents."

   The pr esident of the republic says that this government is a new
   experience and we could succeed in it through performance. "It is an
   experience with little sugar." It is not a national unity government the
   way we have been used to, but it has certain balances from the moderate
   trend, and it is supposed to yield greater production. "This depends on
   the parties to it." It is "not a single party; it is a party and half a
   party, which is an unusual model. Prime Minister Najib Miqati is a
   moderate and he has great weight in terms of his ability to handle any
   session when the situation does not suit him. This weight is far greater
   than the number that could be obtained. He says that he had preferred to
   sign a charter-based government, but the refusal of the 14 March Forces to
   participate prevented this despite several formulas that were raised in
   his framework. I do not mind if the government is that of the 8 March
   Forces. Let this government take control and w e will see." Answering
   another question about not giving the 14 March Forces the veto-wielding
   one third so as to ensure their participation, as happened after the Doha
   agreement, he said that this "took effect for one time only, and not
   more." He affirmed that he has no quarrel with these forces.

   The president of the republic provides indicators through which he tries
   to overcome the voices that specify the tasks of the next government based
   on the following:

   "The situation in the region and around Lebanon is very fluid. We have
   protected ourselves inside by forming the government." He said that the
   incidents in Tripoli would have been more difficult had the government not
   started its work. One of the merits of this government, in his opinion, is
   safeguarding civil peace.

   "The government will not resort to any malicious acts and will not gloat,
   but this does not mean that there is no accountability." He said that
   there are no plans yet concerning names that are being circulated in the
   media. "Major General Ashraf Rifi committed a violation vis-a-vis the
   interior minister, and there should be proper accountability for it, but
   not greater or lesser than the actual violation. This accountability will
   be decided by the new government."

   "The anticipated appointments will be conducted on a scientific basis and
   according to the mechanism of appointments that was agreed on previously.
   I insist on this mechanism. When it was proposed, no one protested with
   the exception of the former industry minister, and it was postponed. If
   appointments take place based on gloating, the government will not
   survive. He said that the life span of this government depends on its
   performance and whether it will be democratic and institutional or not. He
   believes that Prime Minister Miqati agrees with him on this track. The
   same goes for Speaker Nabih Birri, Hizballah, and even General Awn." ;

   The question of the guaranteeing one-third in this government is different
   from what it was in the previous government. This one-third was for the
   opposition against the pro-government forces previously, but its purpose
   now is to ensure good performance or to prevent bad performance, as it
   were.

   Damascus did not take part in the formation (of the government), as he
   explained this in the first session of the government. The balance of
   forces is what imposed it. When announcing its formation, the choice was
   either to announce it or for Prime Minister Miqati to decline forming it.

   "The international community will judge performance. It cannot consider
   the government to be one of Hizballah, as the case was with the HAMAS
   government previously. He said that the share of Hizballah is still t he
   same as the situation was in previous governments. He refused to prejudge
   matters by saying that the decision in the government is for Hizballah. He
   wondered whe ther the Americans had not yet tested the Lebanese army and
   what would their position be if a change occurs similar to what happened
   in Egypt or Tunisia. He insisted that what happened in Lebanon is a
   democratic change to a great extent. He expressed his belief that in
   implementation, the Americans do not find it fitting for them to do
   anything other than supporting the army as they are pragmatic on this
   issue.

   "We will not abandon our international commitments on the question of the
   tribunal, and the policy statement will embody Miqati's policy under the
   ceiling of the oath-taking speech and the ceiling of the constitution and
   mutual living."

   President Sulayman says that he will call for dialogue "that brings
   everybody in after the government wins confidence." He expressed optimism
   about some positions by the symbols of the 14 March Forces in this
   context. Answering a question about the possibility of dialogue and
   whether the 14 March Force s would consider dialogue to be like a
   clearance given to the 8 March Forces now that these forces have come to
   power since the 8 March Forces had refused to pursue the dialogue in light
   of the balance of political forces in the country, he said: "I am
   encouraged by some, and I stress the word some, voices from the 14 March
   Forces on the basis that the circle of approval could expand provided that
   the program is subject to the will of the interlocutors." He affirmed that
   the previous table of dialogue produced positive results at least by
   keeping things under check through atmospheres that accompanied the
   previous parliamentary elections.

   On what many people may consider to be the loss of the president of the
   republic of the security portfolios in front of others who sought to
   bargain with him over his share and the portfolios, Sulayman says that his
   objective was basically not to get service ministries to get involved in
   politics and that he insisted on not having ministers and even for the
   Interior Ministry not to go to any direction and to remain in the middle.
   He praised Minister Marwan Sharbil in this context. As for the Defense
   Ministry, he refers to his statement to US Secretary of State Hillary
   Clinton that the decision of the army goes beyond the ministry to the
   Presidency of the Republic and the army command as well.

   President Sulayman concludes by expressing optimism because "as long as
   security stability is under control and economic stability is reasonable,
   we should get used to doing things by ourselves based on the experiences
   of the past and we should get used to democracy by leaving some space for
   others as well."

   (Description of Source: Beirut Al-Nahar Online in Arabic -- Website of
   Al-Nahar, leading, moderate, anti-Syrian daily; URL:
   http://www.annahar.com.lb)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   83) Back to Top
   Turkish Columnist Interviews Syrian Muslim Brotherhood Leader Al-Shaqfa
   Column by Asli Aytintasbas: "The Regime Will Capitulate in the Coming
   Year" - Milliyet Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 17:27:35 GMT
   As the Middle East heads into a hot summer, the Muslim Brotherhood
   movement in Syria is once again taking its place on the great chessboard.
   As the world's major powers quietly prepare for a post-Bashar-al-Asad
   Syria, one of the first doors on which they knock is that of the Muslim
   Brotherhood. The movement, which spearheaded another popular uprising
   against the Ba'th Party some 30 years ago, is today once again preparing
   to play a role in the future of Syr ia.

   The movement's leader in exile, Muhammad Riad Al-Shaqfa, has for the first
   time spoken in the Turkish press via Milliyet. We met with Al-Shaqfa, who
   for the past 31 years has been moving back and forth among Iraq, Saudi
   Arabia, and Great Britain, in Europe, on condition that we not reveal the
   actual location. Al-Shaqfa conveyed important messages on a number of
   topics, ranging from the conditions for compromise with (Syrian President)
   Bashar al-Asad to relations with Israel and their expectations of Turkey.

   The movement's leader in exile, Muhammad Riad al-Shaqfa spoke in the
   Turkish press for the first time via Milliyet. The son of a religious
   scholar from Hama, he has spent the past 30 years moving among Iraq, Saudi
   Arabia, and Great Britain. Al-Shaqfa escaped three assassination attempts
   at the hands of Syrian agents, but was wounded in the fourth such attempt
   in 2006. In the interview, which was held in Europe on condition that the
   location not be r evealed, Al-Shaqfa conveyed important messages on a
   number of topics, ranging from the conditions for compromise with Bashar
   al-Asad to relations with Israel and their expectations of Turkey. Revolt
   Everywhere

   (Q)In 1980, the revolt spearheaded by the Muslim Brotherhood in Hama had a
   more Islamic character. But now in Syria, the demand in the streets is for
   democracy rather than religion. What is the difference between then and
   now?

   (A) There is a degree of truth in what you say. It is true, though, that
   in that period, it was not the Muslim Brotherhood but rather all of Hama
   that arose in revolt, and with the same rationale; that is, they revolted
   against the oppression of the Ba'th Party. This dictatorship is
   continuing.

   Yet another difference is that every incident, thanks to the media, is now
   conveyed instantaneously to the world. The things that were done in Hama
   in the past were concealed from the world. But now, there is revolt not
   just in H ama, but everywhere, and the whole world is following this.

   (Q) The punishment for membership in the Muslim Brotherhood is execution.
   What degree of responsibility do you have in the uprisings?

   (A) Ever since the 1980s, a good many of our members have been executed.
   In accord with article 49 of the constitution, membership in the Ihkwan
   (Brotherhood) brings the death penalty. We currently have no official
   structure within the country. But we have thousands of sympathizers. These
   uprisings have not been organized by us. But people's hearts are with us,
   and we support them.

   (Q) Who are the people in the streets?

   (A) People coming from different sectors of society. There are leftists,
   liberals, and Islamists as well. Since there is no right to organize,
   there is no particular group. It is the entire people. Delivered an Empty
   Speech

   (Q) How did you find Bashar al-Asad's speech?

   (A) It is not even worth discussing. It was compl etely empty. This was
   his third speech, and he has been promising something from the outset. He
   has been in power for 11 years now, and there are still no concrete steps.
   I call him "Mr I Will Do."

   (Q) What would he have to say for the Muslim Brotherhood to be satisfied?

   (A) Look, when his father died, Bashar's age was not sufficient for the
   presidency (in 2000), and so they passed a law in 15 minutes and made him
   President. In order for the people to believe him, first he has to pull
   back the military immediately, within a few hours. The people who have
   been arrested in the protests should be released. He should acknowledge
   that massacres have been conducted, and those responsible should be put on
   trial. Al-Asad should announce that article eight of the constitution,
   which gives the Ba'th Party the responsibility to run the country as a
   single-party regime, will be annulled. Additionally, anti-democratic laws
   like article 49, which punish Mus lim Brotherhood membership with the
   death penalty, should be eliminated. If He Institutes Reforms

   (Q) And then elections?

   (A) We want him to establish a delegation made up of representatives of
   the people, and a new political parties law to come out. A date should be
   provided for free elections. It is essential that there be international
   observers in these elections. It could be Turkey, the OSCE (Organization
   for Security and Cooperation in Europe), or the Islamic Conference. But
   Al-Asad has to commit to these elections' being conducted freely and under
   the monitoring of international authorities, because people no longer
   trust the regime. Turkey could be an observer.

   (Q) Turkish officials say that Al-Asad actually wants to carry out
   reforms, but that he has been unable to do so either because he is weak or
   because of those around him...

   (A) Then he has no right to be President. If he is unaware of what is
   happening, then let him abdicate a nd depart. And if he knows, let him
   depart in any event.

   (Q) Well, then, if he should make these shock reforms that you cite, could
   you continue with Al-Asad?

   (A) Not we but rather the people will decide this, but naturally it could
   happen. People do not want Syria to be destroyed or harmed. We want
   stability. In fact, if there were reforms and if Bashar al-Asad were to
   win in the elections, we would have no objection to that. As long as there
   were an honest election. But personally, I do not believe he would be able
   to take such a step.

   (Q) The West, including the United States and Turkey, have not yet
   entirely turned their backs on Al-Asad. He is not being treated like
   (Libyan leader Muammar) Al-Qadhafi...

   (A) If the people of Syria are insistent in their revolt, the world will
   also change. If we are insistent, in the end, both America and Turkey will
   change.

   (Q) Are the Syrians not being insistent? In Egypt, when only 10 percent of
   this took place, the whole world told (former Egyptian President) Hosni
   Mubarak to leave...

   (A) Egypt was not this crucial for Israel's security. Under Bashar
   al-Asad, Israel has been quite comfortable, because security has been
   maintained on the border for the past 40 years.

   (Q) So does Israel want Bashar?

   (A) Yes. It wants Al-Asad to remain more than anyone. They are uneasy with
   the possibility of change.

   (Q) Are they justified or not in being uneasy? What is your stance on
   Israel?

   (A) Our concern at the moment is not Israel, but democracy. This is what
   the people in the Middle East want. Our goal right now is free elections
   and a democratic National Assembly. Afterwards, the government that will
   be made up from the representatives of the people will decide on the
   course of relations with Israel. Not we, but rather tho se who are
   elected, will decide. Do They Want a Religious State?

   (Q) What do the Muslim Brotherhood ai m at?

   (A) We are, to date, not seeking power. But if we should win, we will
   embrace everyone, without discriminating in terms of sect or religion. We
   are aware of Syria's very colorful and pluralistic sectarian and ethnic
   structure.

   (Q) The Alawite (Nusayri) minority that has formed the backbone of the
   regime for over 40 years fear that, if the regime falls, there will be
   massacres against Alawites.

   (A) Never. The regime constantly pumps this up in order to frighten the
   Alawites. Anyone who does anything against the Alawites would first of all
   have to confront me. We will not allow this. They made such propaganda in
   the past, in Hama. The Al-Asad regime is a family regime, like a mafia
   regime. The important thing is not the ethnic makeup of the regime, but
   rather that it is not democratic. Our fight is not a sectarian fight, but
   rather a struggle for freedom.

   (Q) Democracy, or a religious state?

   (A) We believe in democracy, and goin g even beyond that we believe in it
   in a religious sense (using the Arabic word imaan ). Our efforts are in
   this direction. Our goal is a democratic and civilized Syria in which
   there are free elections and equal citizenship. Look, let there be free
   elections, and let the Left win, or even let Bashar al-Asad win, we would
   accept this. We would have no objections. We will accept whomever the
   people choose. Our goal is not a religious state but democracy. The West
   advanced because there was democracy. We want Syria to grow and to
   develop. No dictatorship in the world has developed or raised its level of
   prosperity. All of them are backward.

   (Q) Do you have contacts with the United States and the West?

   (A) There is contact, but not serious contact. The West is investigating
   who might come in place of the dictators. And I tell the same things I am
   telling you to everyone who comes to me.

   (Q) Are you satisfied with Turkey's Syria policy?

   (A ) There are naturally balances and calculations that Turkey pays
   attention to as a great state. But its stances have been better than those
   of the Arab countries. Naturally, we would like them to be a bit better,
   and to convey harsher messages against the regime. The more this happens,
   the happier we would be. But Turkey is better than the other countries.

   (Q) What will this summer be like?

   (A) My prediction is that the protests will continue this summer, because
   it is impossible for the regime to carry out reforms. And the people
   cannot go back, because they know that if they back down, the regime will
   take revenge. So they say "let us die, but let them not kill us (for no
   gain)." They will be in the streets. But as outside pressure and economic
   difficulties increase, the regime will in the end capitulate. This regime
   will fall at the end of the year. God willing, we will meet in Damascus
   next year.

   (Description of Source: Istanbul M illiyet Online in Turkish -- Website of
   prominent pro-secular daily owned by Demiroren-Karacan Group; URL:
   http://www.milliyet.com.tr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   84) Back to Top
   French Policy on Syria Obstructed by Russia
   Commentary by Natalie Nougayrede: "Syria: French Diplomacy Obstructed by
   Russia'" - Le Monde
   Thursday June 23, 2011 11:28:05 GMT
   Syria, has repeatedly stated, as Foreign Minister Alain Juppe did, that "a
   regime that has heavy weapons fired on its population loses its
   legitimacy," is encountering a major obstacle - Russia. Hopes of securing
   some R ussian flexibility on this issue seem to have diminished further
   during the visit to Paris by Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who
   was received at the Elysee and Matignon (presidency and prime minister's
   office, respectively) Tuesday 21 June.

   "We're getting nowhere" with the Russians, French diplomatic sources
   commented Tuesday evening. Another source close to the issue expressed
   greater optimism, however: "the Russians are realists; if they feel the
   wind turning, they will budge." The repression in Syria has claimed over
   1,300 lives and thousands more have disappeared since mid-March. France
   has been trying for weeks to have the United Nations pass a resolution on
   the situation in the country. To no avail, hitherto, particularly since
   three key countries on the Security Council -- India, Brazil, and South
   Africa -- are still resolved to abstain.

   Mr Putin reaffirmed in his talks in Paris that Russia would veto such a
   resolution -- despite the fact that its text has been considerably
   attenuated by the Western countries, because it contains no condemnation
   of Damascus' actions. He also reaffirmed the very tough stance adopted by
   Dmitri Medvedev (Russian president) in an interview published by The
   Financial Times Monday. The Libyan "precedent" is brandished as a warning.
   The way in which the Western countries have implemented Resolution 1973 on
   Libya, approved in March, has, the Russian president said, turned it into
   "a piece of paper used to provide cover for a military operation that
   makes no sense." "I don't want a resolution on Syria to be wrested in the
   same way," Mr Medvedev added.

   In Paris, Mr Putin asked journalists about the nature of the Syrian
   opposition. "Interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign state
   offers no prospects," he said. "We're not sure what's actually happening
   in Syria," he added. "Do you know what th e balance of forces is? Who the
   demonstrators are? What their objectives are?"

   Questions about human rights, in Syria as elsewhere, are not a priority
   for the Russian Government. "They don't care about democracy," one French
   source commented. Russia's real motive in this matter, diplomats say, is
   not so much to lecture NATO over Libya, but the fear of losing an allied
   regime, and at the same time fears that Syria's destabilization could
   produce another hotbed of Islamism, not far from the Caucasus.

   Syria is Moscow's only foothold in the Middle East. It has been so for
   many years, since the expulsion of Soviet "advisers" from Anwar al-Sadat's
   Egypt in 1972, and the subsequent cooling of relations between Moscow and
   Saddam Husayn's Iraq. Russia's present tough stance can be explained:
   Syria is the final vestige of the great era of client states, with its
   anti-Western Ba'th Party. Moscow is thus pinning its hopes on the survival
   of President Bashir al-Asad's government, and hailed its "constructive"
   announcements Tuesday. It intends to keep its military naval base in
   Syria, at Tartus, as well as major armaments contracts. By playing the
   "Al-Asad card," it finds a way of asserting its difference from the
   Western countries. This is a crucial concern. Indeed, when Russia
   abstained at the United Nations in the vote on Resolution 1973, it was in
   order not to cut itself off from the Arab countries in favor of the
   document. With regard to Syria, the situation is very different: the Arabs
   are less keen, and it is the Western countries alone that want to put
   pressure on Damascus. Thy "Putin-ist" portrayal of a Russia protecting the
   states' sovereignty and protecting the world from the West's &amp;amp;q
   uot;inopportune" interventions finds a propitious setting here.

   Is this is a return to Russian, or Soviet, diplomatic fundamentals?
   Following the "reset" (the fresh start to US-Russian relations in 2009,)
   Paris and Washington are in any case confronted with a "nyet" diplomacy.
   France was hoping for better, following its overtures to Moscow in
   connection with political and military cooperation (despite Russia's non
   observance of the ceasefire agreement in Georgia,) and having ceased to
   say anything in public about attacks on fundamental rights in Russia.

   However, French sources pointed out, there is no certainty that Barack
   Obama's administration will make the necessary effort to achieve any
   greater success from Moscow in connection with the Syrian question.

   (Description of Source: Paris Le Monde in French -- leading center-left
   daily)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   85) Back to Top
   Lebanese Press 22 Jun 11
   The following lists selected items from the Lebanese press on 22 June. To
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735. - Lebanon -- OSC Summary
   Thursday June 23, 2011 11:34:03 GMT
   "Al-Asad extends the amnesty and the security campaign; thousands rally to
   support him in Damascus and other cities"

   "Washington speaks of a desolate and sad situation in Jisr al-Shughur"

   "The cabinet speeds up its statement; Awn embarrasses centrists in it"

   "Al-Hariri: The fate of martyrs' killers will be prison" Al-Akhbar

   The policy statement acknowledges the resistance pending the Special
   Tribunal for Lebanon" Al-Safir

   "Awn brandishes the threat of prison; Al-H ariri hits back"

   "The golden trio comes back with a vengeance" Al-Diyar

   "Awn promises the opposition it will end up in the Rumiyah prison"

   "The Future Movement: He is showing the extent of his hatred" Al-Mustaqbal

   "Al-Hariri to Awn: Death to the killers of the martyrs and those
   protecting them" Al-Liwa

   "A new presidential amnesty and seven dead by the bullets of the security
   forces; the campaign targets Aleppo" Coverage in detail 1. Beirut Al-Nahar
   Online in Arabic -- Website of Al-Nahar, leading, moderate, anti-Syrian
   daily; URL:

   http://www.annahar.com.lb/ http://www.annahar.com.lb

   a. Front-page report saying that Syrian President Bashar al-Asad announced
   a new general amnesty yesterday, right after he proposed to hold national
   dialogue and announced the reforms, which were deemed insufficient by the
   opposition. Hundreds of thousand rallied in a show of support for him in
   Damascus and other cities. The report says that a Turkish diplomatic
   source said that Turkey does not intend to send an envoy to Al-Asad and
   sees no need to do so now. The source went on, saying that the European
   Union foreign ministers agreed in principle on imposing new sanctions on
   Syria. Commenting on the positions announced by Prime Minister Miqati and
   Deputy Junblatt, key opposition sources told Al-Nahar that "the final word
   belongs to the Syrian policy expressed by Awn." Ministerial sources told
   Al-Nahar that the discussions held by the policy statement drafting
   committee "took place in a calm atmosphere and will continue today and
   tomorrow." The sources stressed that the people-army-resistance trio is
   "one of the postulates of this statement." For his part, Speaker Nabih
   Birri told Al-Nahar : "Everyone has to realize that Prime Minister
   Miqati's cabinet will not indulge in any maliciousness but this does not
   mean at all remaining s ilent on thefts and violations in ministries."
   (1,200 words)

   b. Article by Rajih al-Khuri saying that in the absence of alternatives to
   run the Arab countries that have been subjected to political changes,
   terrible surprises could be on the way. The revolutions of change that
   brought down the tyrannical regimes did not have a perception of the
   post-regime period and of the alternative regime people want. The writer
   notes that the Arab spring could open the door for sectarian wars and
   divisions. (700 words)

   c. Article by Hiyam al-Qusayfi on the cabinet formation. The writer says
   that only Syria and Iran welcomed the new cabinet, while Saudi Arabia,
   Qatar, Turkey, the United States, and France did not. She adds that the
   governments of these countries believe that the new Lebanese cabinet is an
   anti-West one. The writer says that the Syrian regime wanted the cabinet
   formation to coincide with its plan to announce the victory speech. But
   the field developments surprised the regime and President Al-Asad had to
   replace his pre-planned victory speech with another speech on reform. On
   the Lebanese level, Syria opted to undermine the stability in Lebanon and
   form a government that secures the Syrian influence in Lebanon. Al-Qusayfi
   says that Hizballah does not want to be in the forefront, so it makes
   General Awn take the stage and lash out at Al-Hariri. Hizballah is,
   however, busy with preparing for the regional confrontation, and this
   includes the policy statement. But Paris and Washington and Riyadh among
   other countries will not stand still. (1,200 words) 2. Beirut Al-Akhbar
   Online in Arabic -- Website of Al-Akhbar, a political daily espousing Arab
   nationalist views, pro-resistance, pro-Syria; URL:

   http://www.al-akhbar.com/ www.al-akhbar.com

   a. Unattributed report on the new Lebanese Government's policy statement.
   The report says that the statement is a summarized draft of the former
   government's statement, and that m ost of the topics were finalized except
   for the issue of the Special Tribunal, which is still pending. The report
   says that the 8 March forces are discussing a proposal that confirms
   Lebanon's commitment to "achieving justice and revealing the truth" with
   regard to the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri and
   other assassinations. The report says that the clause related to the
   "People, Army, and Resistance" formula was approved without major
   discussions. (1,500 words)

   b. Report by Abd Al-Kafi al-Samad on the meeting that was held in former
   Prime Minister Fuad Siniora's office in the presence of Mufti Malik
   al-Sha'ar, and that ended with a call to form a "Command Council" for
   Tripoli. The report talks about the absence of Prime Minister Miqati,
   Minister Al-Safadi, and Faysal Karami from the meeting. The report talks
   about the positions of Mufti Al-Sha'ar after the meeting, which was
   considered to be in favor of the Future Movement. The writer says that
   Al-Sha'ar is embarrassed, as his positions have affected his consensual
   position among the different forces in Tripoli. (1,000 words)

   c. Report by Ghassan Sa'ud on the Province of Akkar. The report talks
   about the political, economic, and social realities in Akkar. The report
   says that Akkar is deprived of any political or economic aid as the 8
   March forces consider it to be affiliated with the Future Movement, and
   the Future Movement does not put in any efforts to improve the situation
   in Akkar as it considers that its electoral victory in the province is
   guaranteed. (900 words)

   d. Article by Ahmad al-Za'tari on the resignation of Tahir al-Adwan, the
   minister of state for media and communication affairs in Jordan. The
   writer says that Al-Adwan has opted to leave the cabinet as a way to
   object to the martial media laws. Al-Adwan's resignation "came to object
   to the insistence of the cabinet on listing the suggested amendment s to
   the print media law -- these relate to websites -- on the agenda of the
   discussions to be held during the exceptional hearing of the parliament."
   Al-Adwan "tried to preserve media moderation while present in his
   ministerial post. However, his attempt made him look like a mediator
   between the journalists and people on the one hand, and the government on
   the other. The developments seen by Jordan since the beginning of the year
   have caused moderation to be unacceptable and useless." The writer adds:
   "Let us imagine for instance that Al-Adwan did not sit by the side with
   the prime minister following the events of March, and that he did not
   adopt the official point of view that stated that the security forces
   intervened in order to break up the clash that took place between the
   opposition and the pro-government protesters. Instead, let us imagine that
   we are still quoting the reform columns that he used to write in Al-Arab
   al-Yawm." According to the writer, "one must indicate that Al-Adwan was
   the one who consolidated the early bases of the newspaper's success when
   he forced a major investor to sign a pledge to refrain from interfering in
   editorial policies. But now, and as Al-Adwan is back to being a colleague
   of ours, we can come up with only one conclusion: The man taught us a lot
   when he was at the head of Al-Arab al-Yawm and he let us down when he
   obtained the post of minister. Will he be back with the same confidence
   that he was famous for because of his honesty?" (500 words)

   e. Article by Ibrahim al-Amin on the crisis in Syria and President
   Al-Asad's 20 June speech. The writer says that many sides said that
   President Al-Asad has run out of time and missed his chance and that he
   should have said all this months ago. Al-Jazirah interviewed a man who was
   described as "the president of the alliance of Syria First," and who
   asserted that Iran and Hizballah are handling the acts of oppressi on in
   Syria. He then called on Recep Tayyip Erdogan to step in, without saying
   what kind of stepping-in he would like to see. Al-Amin notes that "the
   most important development in the Syrian events not only consists of the
   statement of the head of the regime concerning his readiness to launch a
   campaign that will certainly lead to major changes. It, rather, includes
   his statement and conviction that preserving Syria's independent position
   in the region and abstaining from accepting American orders actually
   require such changes. The new thing is that Syria today is convinced that
   the changes must involve the daily train of thought that has prevailed
   over this country for long decades." He adds that, had the thugs been
   aspiring for real reform, "they would have pushed the man (Al-Asad) toward
   additional practical steps instead of insisting on empty positions the
   only aim of which is to translate the demands of the West to spill more
   blood. Alain Juppe for instan ce, believes that a Western army will be
   ready to intervene in order to save the Syrian people. Apparently, this
   idiot does not know that Jacques Chirac and George Bush are now back in
   their homes." (800 words) 3. Beirut Al-Safir Online in Arabic -- Website
   of Al-Safir, pro-Hizballah daily, with an Arab nationalist editorial line,
   critical of US policies;URL:

   http://www.assafir.com/ http://www.assafir.com

   a. Report says that Speaker Nabih Birri met yesterday with Deputy Ali
   Hasan Khalil and Husayn al-Khalil and discussed with them the draft policy
   statement and the means to address sensitive issues in it, especially with
   regard to the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. The report cites sources
   saying that yesterday's meeting of the policy statement drafting committee
   witnessed the adoption of the people-army-resistance equation, albeit
   under partially different wording compared with Prime Minister Sa'd
   al-Hariri's cabinet statement. The sources stressed that th e "new wording
   of the equation is more strongly worded than the previous one." Commenting
   on rumors prevailing in some political circles regarding a potential
   boycott of the confidence vote session by 14 March deputies, Speaker Birri
   told Al-Safir : "Every sickness has a cure. If 60 deputies from the
   opposition have something to say, 60 deputies from the majority have
   something to say as well." He added: "If opposition deputies boycott (the
   confidence vote), we will have to wrap up statements and end the session
   quickly so that the cabinet can start to take action and parliament can
   exert its control and legislative role." (1,000 words)

   b. Article by Talal Salman on the speech made by President Bashar al-Asad
   on 20 June. The writer says that the Syrians are finally reassured that
   their message was delivered when they listened to President Al-Asad saying
   that the Constitution that stipulates that the Ba'th Party is the leader
   of the state and the society is not divine. This magic sentence opened the
   horizons of change and removed the sacred nature of the regime, which has
   proven to belong to ancient times. According to the writer, the Syrian
   people affirmed yesterday their willingness to defend their unity,
   rejecting sedition and sectarian divisions. The speech of President
   Al-Asad is the first step on a long path. The Syrians have taken to the
   streets to defend the president's decision and to encourage him to
   continue the march toward the full modernization of the state. (800 words)

   c. Article by Sati Nur-al-Din saying that the "pictures broadcast
   repeatedly by Al-Jazirah over the past two days -- of high-ranking
   officials from the Moroccan State who were bowing to kiss the hand of King
   Mohammad VI -- were disappointing for those who thought that Morocco had
   taken an important step toward the first serious change for the regime."
   The pictures, which were common in Morocco, were really shamef ul. They
   belong to the Ottoman era or the ancient Islamic eras, back then when the
   king literally owned his people, whose only dream was to kiss his hands or
   even his feet. Nur-al-Din says that, "although other Arab kingdoms and
   emirates, namely, in the Gulf, practice similar traditions, they do not
   reach this level of humiliation." (500 words)

   d. Repost by Denise Haddad on the position of the Christian Patriarchy
   with regard to the new government and the political conflict between the 8
   March and 14 March forces. The report says that Patriarch Bisharah al-Ra'i
   did not criticize the government. She cites one of the bishops who is
   close to Al-Ra'i saying that Al-Ra'i does not make preconceived judgments
   and believes that all the Lebanese sides want the best for Lebanon
   although they might adopt different visions in order to achieve their
   goals. The bishop adds that the government can be successful by protecting
   Lebanon from the repercussions of the regional d evelopments and improving
   the living conditions of the Lebanese people. (1,000 words)

   e. Report by Ily al-Farzali on the conflict between former Prime Minister
   Sa'd al-Hariri and former Minister of Communications Sharbil Nahhas. The
   report says that the origin of the conflict stems from the difference in
   the economic and social beliefs and agendas. (1,400 words)

   f. Report by Dawud Rammal on Speaker Nabih Birri's and Deputy Walid
   Junblatt's efforts to improve relations between the Syrian leadership and
   the 14 March Christian forces, particularly former President Amin
   al-Jumayyil. (800 words) 4. Beirut Al-Diyar Online in Arabic -- Website of
   Al-Diyar, pro-Syria political daily; URL

   http://www.addiyaronline.com/ http://www.addiyaronline.com

   Report says that the Future Bloc said that the logic of revenge, which
   General Michel Awn takes pride in applying, previously cost the Lebanese
   people in general and those whom General Awn claims to defend heavy losses
   due to past experiences. The Future Bloc called on Finance Minister
   Muhammad al-Safadi to undertake the accounting audit according to
   international audit rules in order to reveal the truth about financial
   issues free from any political exploitation. Ministerial sources told
   Al-Diyar that yesterday's meeting of the policy statement drafting
   committee witnessed intense discussions regarding the policy statement in
   order to have it completed during today's and tomorrow's meetings. Speaker
   Nabih Birri was quoted saying that, if the policy statement is submitted
   Saturday and distributed to deputies, he will call for a confidence vote
   on Wednesday 29 June. (700 words) 5. Beirut Al-Mustaqbal Online in Arabic
   --Website of political daily, pro-late Rafiq al-Hariri; URL:

   http://www.almustaqbal.com.lb/ www.almustaqbal.com.lb

   Report by Safa Muhammad on an interview with Deputy Butrus Harb, who says
   that the 14 March forces are planning to form a mechanism for a &amp;quo
   t;parliamentary committee or a shadow government that would monitor Prime
   Minister Miqati's government." Harb talks about the 14 March forces' plan
   to face Prime Minister Miqati's government, General Awn's campaign on the
   14 March forces and former Prime Minister Sa'd al-Hariri, and the crisis
   in Syria and its possible effect on Lebanon. (800 words) 6. Beirut Al-Liwa
   Online in Arabic -- Website of Al-Liwa, a mainstream Sunni political
   daily;URL:http://www.aliwaa.com.lb

   Report by Umar al-Bardan on the Lebanese Government's position with regard
   to the issues of the Special Tribunal and the international resolutions.
   The report says that Prime Minister Miqati's continuous confirmations in
   this regard show that he is convinced that Lebanon cannot violate its
   commitments to these resolutions and the tribunal. The report cites
   Minister of Justice Shakib Qartabawi saying that more than one draft will
   be presented with regard to the issue of the Special Tribunal and add s
   that the government is eager to avoid any confrontation with any side.
   (700 words)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   86) Back to Top
   Israeli Official Quoted on Talks With Turkey, Turkey To Gain From Restored
   Ties
   Report by Tolga Tanis in Washington: "The Washington Code in
   Turkish-Israeli Negotiations" - Hurriyet Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 14:12:14 GMT
   US State Department Spokesman Victoria Nuland, in response to a question
   from Hurriyet the day before yesterday, had stated that the United States
   has been meeting with both sides for the sake of the development of
   relations bet ween the two countries. Sources state that if the relations
   normalize, Turkey will have an easier time in Washington on three basic
   issues:

   - Weapons: Turkey has since last year wanted to buy two major weapons
   systems from the United States. A high-level White House official has
   stated that diplomatic discussions are currently underway regarding the
   Reaper unmanned aerial vehicles and Cobra helicopters that Turkey is
   expecting. Sources have stated that these sales, which require US
   Congressional approval, will eventuate by the end of 2011, and that
   US-Turkey armed sales will return to the situation prior to 2010, if
   Turkish-Israeli relations emerge from their crisis.

   - Ambassador: The second important reflection of the tension between
   Turkey and Israel is the appointment of a US Ambassador to Ankara. When
   the appointment of Frank Ricciardone was blocked in the Senate by former
   Kansas Senator Sam Brownback, President (Barack) Obama exploited the fact
   that the Congress was in recess last December and appointed him by
   by-passing the Senate. On 26 January 2011, Obama once again sent a
   nomination for Ricciardone to the newly elected Senate so that he can stay
   for more than a year. It is said that, with improvement in Turkish-Israeli
   relations, the Senators might end their opposition.

   - Churches: The third reflection in Washington of the Turkish-Israeli
   relationship, less important and influential than the first two, is the
   issue of churches in Turkey. The Armenian lobby brought about the
   submission of two anti-Turkey resolutions to the US Congress last week.
   The chances of passage of the "Armenian Genocide" resolution number 304 in
   the House of Representatives are seen as very low. But there is talk that
   resolution number 306, on the situation of churches in Turkey, which is
   supported by Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, the Chairwoman of the Foreign Relations
   Committee, who determines what resolutions are placed on the agenda, could
   come onto the agenda if the Turkish-Israeli crisis continues.

   (Description of Source: Istanbul Hurriyet Online in Turkish -- Website of
   pro-secular, mass-appeal daily, one of country's top circulation papers,
   owned by Dogan Media Group; URL: http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   87) Back to Top
   FYI -- Al-Qadhafi Vows To Remain Steadfast With Libyans' 'Backs Against
   the Wall' - Al-Jamahiriyah Television
   Thursday June 23, 2011 10:16:29 GMT
   Only Al-Qadhafi's voice could be heard as he did not make an appearance.
   His speech was played against a video hi ghlighting the civilian deaths in
   Surman and a replay of the 7 June NATO strike against Bab-al-Aziziyah.

   Al-Qadhafi kicked off his speech by expressing his grief over the "sad but
   glorious" day while honoring the "martyrs" who fell, before accusing NATO
   of "masterminding the murder attempt" against Al-Humaydi. "Twenty-eight
   crusading, Christian NATO member-states decided to kill Al-Khuwayldi
   al-Humaydi and his family at dawn. We tell them that Al-Khuwayldi is a
   hero. It does not matter whether he dies or lives. He is a hero and one
   with an important role in the historic, great 1 September revolution which
   liberated Libya from US, British and Italian colonialism," Al-Qadhafi
   said. "They decided to kill Al-Khuwayldi al-Humaydi, one of the
   revolution's heroes, just like they attempted and are still attempting to
   kill Mu'ammar al-Qadhafi, the leader of the revolution," he continued.

   Al-Qadhafi then went into a tirad e against NATO. "Barbarians, are those
   houses legitimate military targets? Even the devil finds himself ashamed
   from saying those lies and nonsense," Al-Qadhafi said, before indicating
   that NATO knew there were civilians inside the homes they targeted in
   Surman. "You kept on looking for him, through spying and reconnaissance
   (missions), until you discovered the residential neighborhood where
   Al-Khuwayldi and his family (live)," he said. "You knew those houses were
   inhabited by kids and families because you conducted your reconnaissance,
   you took photos and you made certain that Al-Khuwayldi lives here. So you
   followed him to where he and his family live so you can kill him. You say
   this was a legitimate military target. What legitimacy is this? Are our
   homes legitimate military targets?," the leader said. He also indicated
   that NATO had previously targeted Al-Humaydi's office four times already
   on 1 May, 14 May, 5 June and 6 June.

   "Y ou criminals, you said before the entire world that you were
   'accurately' striking your targets. This means that you had accurate
   information about the target. You knew that there was a mother sleeping
   with her two children in that home," he said. "How could you say that you
   bombed a legitimate military target? This means you want to kill
   Al-Khuwayldi. You are certainly aware of this as you are looking for
   Al-Qadhafi and Al-Khuwayldi. But even if that were the case, who allowed
   you to (attempt to) kill Al-Khuwayldi? By which law do you (want to) kill
   him? When was it lawful to kill leaders and politicians?," he asked.

   Al-Qadhafi then accused NATO of not having any morals or conscience. "This
   is a new law, the jungle's law, the tyrants' law, the infidels' law. You
   do not have a conscience and therefore the jungle's law is your law. You
   are hitting Libya with missiles with no deterrent. Had the Soviet Union
   still existed, you would not have carried o ut those shameful acts,"
   Al-Qadhafi said, adding that at some point the roles will be reversed just
   like when the Jews were persecuted in Europe at the turn of the 19th and
   20th centuries.

   "You have turned the world into a jungle but roles could be reversed and
   the laws by which you live would one day be applied upon you. Your homes
   will become our legitimate targets. One day your children will become our
   legitimate targets. We will treat you as you are now treating us. Just
   yesterday, the Jews were poorly-treated and burned in Europe. You
   subjected them to the Holocaust. But now, they have nuclear missiles. Even
   you are scared of it, of Israel," the leader said. "Fire could again rage
   between Africa, Asia, Europe and America and you will be responsible for
   it. The Mediterranean and Europe could go up in flames. At one point in
   time, we might even be able to move the war to Europe. You will regret
   it," he said.

   Al-Qadhafi also asked for UN inspectors to come to Libya and investigate
   whether Al-Humaydi's home was a legitimate NATO target. "I want UN
   inspectors. We will ask the UNSC members, less the three criminal states,
   to send inspectors to Al-Khuwayldi's home and see whether it is a legal
   military target," he said. The leader then explained the duties of Lt Gen
   Al-Khuwayldi al-Humaydi mocking the NATO explanation that his home was a
   command and control center.

   "Imagine the command and control components: We have financial accounting,
   financial military accounting, payrolls accounting, inspection and
   military police. Are those (part of) command and control? Are military
   police, military accounting and inspection (offices) important strategic
   military targets so that they would be destroyed? So that his office would
   be hit four times? You do not have this right. This is an office run by
   mostly non-militaries," he said.

   "Permanent-UNSC member US, where are you? Where are you? You, who is in
   charge of international security? You, where the UN is based? Obama, where
   are you? You of African, Muslim and Arab descent, you have sold all those
   values for the US Presidency," Al-Qadhafi said.

   The leader then taunted NATO for refraining from sending troops into Libya
   because of the "resistance" they will meet on the ground, but are rather
   "playing" undeterred in Libya's skies after they destroyed the country's
   air defenses. "There will no longer be any understanding between us after
   you killed our sleeping sons and grandchildren. We no longer want
   anything. We no longer want to live. We want to die. It is better for us
   to die than live with your jets flying overhead. We all want to die as
   martyrs. We wish to incite you (enough) so you can strike us with atomic
   bombs and be done with. We are not afraid. We are not looking for life nor
   survival. We have our backs against the wall and you know that those with
   thei r backs against the wall have nothing to lose. In contrast, you have
   nothing behind your backs. You can back away. You can be ashamed of
   yourselves," he said.

   Al-Qadhafi concluded his speech by asking Muslims to rise up against the
   28 "Christian" states which are striking Muslim countries and blaming the
   shaykhs in Mecca and Egypt's Al-Azhar, the two most revered Islamic
   institutions, for not declaring Jihad against the "crusaders."

   Before hanging up, al-Qadhafi promised to honor the memory of his son
   Sayf-al-Arab and Al-Humaydi's granddaughter, Khalidah. "I have pledged to
   erect a commemorative monument for Khalidah, so that it remains eternal.
   We will erect one for Sayf-al-Arab and her. It will be the highest in
   North Africa. This is an honor for Al-Khuwayldi al-Humaydi, his family,
   his tribe, the free officers, and the 1 September revolution."

   "We will remain steadfast. We are not afraid; we are not shaking in f ear.
   We will not surrender. We will not ask for a truce or peace. We will not
   bargain," Al-Qadhafi concluded.

   No further processing planned.

   (Description of Source: Tripoli Al-Jamahiriyah Television in Arabic --
   Launched in 1968 by the state-owned broadcaster Libyan Jamahiriyah
   Broadcasting Corporation, which launched four additional channels in 2006;
   broadcasts free-to-air, general entertainment programming on satellite and
   terrestrial television in Arabic, English and French; URL:
   http://ljbc.net)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   88) Back to Top
   Egyptian Press 23 Jun 11
   The following lists selected items from the Egyptian press on 23 June. To
   request additio nal processing, contact the OSC Customer Center at (800)
   205-8615 or OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Egypt -- OSC Summary
   Thursday June 23, 2011 10:55:13 GMT
   1. Editorial points out that chronic problems like shortage of irrigation
   water and fertilizers continue to worry Egyptian farmers, and calls for
   finding quick solutions to those problems. (p 11; 350 words)

   2. Article by Ahmad al-Birri warns that corruption is still widespread in
   many state institutions, and cites a recent UN report indicating that
   Egypt ranked first in the rate of desertification worldwide. He explains
   that one of the key reasons for this loss of arable land is the failure to
   enforce the law against people who build on such land. (p 4; 500 words)

   3. Article by Makram Muhammad Ahmad stresses that it will be inevitable
   for Egypt to build nuclear power plants and desalination plants in the
   near future in orde r to cope with increasing demand for electric power
   and water. (p 10; 500 words)

   4. Article by Mansur Abu-al-Azm says a poll conducted on the internet to
   determine the presidential candidate most likely to win the next election
   was inaccurate because "more than 62 million people do not know the
   internet in the first place" and there is no way of knowing how they would
   vote in the next presidential election. (p 5; 600 words)

   5. Article by Haytham Sa'd-al-Din on the memorandum submitted by Foreign
   Minister Nabil al-Arabi to the Council of Ministers proposing the creation
   of a national security council. (p 1; 250 words; processing)

   6. Article by Dr Mustafa al-Najar lashes out at politicians who "delegate
   themselves to speak on behalf of the people," "talk about their superior
   ability to rally the masses, but every time we look behind them we see
   nothing but a mirage," and "despise and belittle the people every day by
   sayi ng the people are immature and easily deceived," although they are
   the ones who remained silent before the revolution and "never spoke out
   against injustice." (p 29; 900 words)

   Cairo Al-Akhbar in Arabic -- State-controlled daily that staunchly defends
   regime policy; claims to be country's second largest circulation newspaper

   1. Article by Sa'id Isma'il argues that conducting parliamentary elections
   before writing a new constitution would be like "erecting a building
   before laying down the foundations or putting the carriage in front of the
   horse." (p 7; 500 words)

   2. Article by Jalal Arif citing extremist religious views that consider
   democracy a form of infidelity and demand that all men grow beards to warn
   that "our calamity with bats of darkness throughout history is that every
   time the nation gets ready to rise, they set it back; every time we take a
   step toward catching up with modern times, they become the breaks th at
   stop the movement of society; and every time we start embracing science,
   they defend ignorance and demand the prosecution of everybody caught using
   his brain." (p 5; 400 words)

   3. Article by Ibrahim Si'dah asks how former Syrian vice president
   Abd-al-Halim Khaddam, who was part of the Al-Asad regime for many years,
   has now become an outspoken critic of the Syrian regime. (p 24; 600 words)

   4. Interview with Dr Muhammad Salim al-Awa, an Islamist lawyer and writer
   who has recently announced his intention to run in presidential elections,
   on claims that he will be the representative of the Islamist trend in the
   election, his effort to prepare a good election program, the controversy
   surrounding the decision to hold parliamentary elections before writing a
   new constitution, whether Egypt should be a presidential or parliamentary
   republic, the Islamic movement in Egypt, whether a Christian should be
   named vice president, his views on the sale of natural gas to Israel, his
   views on relations with Iran and his call for changing the current
   government. (pp 12-13; 3,000 words)

   Cairo Al-Jumhuriyah in Arabic -- Website of state-controlled daily whose
   editorial line strongly defends regime policy

   1. Article by Abd-al-Qadir Shuhayb rejects calls for postponing
   parliamentary elections until a constitution has been written, because the
   outcome of the referendum on constitutional amendments, which was held on
   19 March, showed that the majority of voters chose a plan to hold
   parliamentary elections first. (p 9; 600 words)

   2. Article by Muhammad Abu-al-Hadid praises the Supreme Council of the
   Armed Forces for trying to sound out the views of citizens on possible
   presidential candidates in a poll conducted on the internet, and lashes
   out at Dr Muhammad ElBaradei because he called for postponing
   parliamentary elections and writing a constitution first "at least three
   times this week alone: in two television interv iews and one press
   interview," although "the constitutional declaration issued by the Supreme
   Council of the Armed Forces stipulates that parliamentary elections should
   be held first, and then a constitution should be written." (p 4; 1,500
   words)

   3. Editorial says Arab uprisings appear to be a cause for concern in
   Israel, which is conducting a drill to prepare for a doomsday scenario of
   hundreds of missiles bombarding the country each day from all directions.
   (p 10; 150 words)

   Cairo Al-Wafd in Arabic -- Opposition New Wafd Party's daily newspaper,
   usually highlights statements of the party's leader and criticizes the
   government

   1. Report quotes unnamed legal sources as saying Spain and other European
   countries might try to confiscate billions of dollars illegally gained and
   smuggled by former Egyptian officials and businessmen under the pretext
   that relevant money laundering operations were conducted in Europe. (p 2;
   1,000 words)

   2 . Interview with Yasir Qurah, an engineer who has announced his desire
   to stand in the next presidential election, on his university education in
   the United States, his lack of political experience, his chances of
   winning and his views on key domestic issues; such as sectarian
   dissention, education, health, social reform, tax reforms and tourism. (p
   5; 6,000 words)

   3. Interview with Usamah Rushdi, an Islamist activist who chairs the Egypt
   Salvation Front, on his arrest upon his arrival in Cairo, the 22 years he
   spent away from Egypt, the time he spent in London, and his deportation
   from the Netherlands in 2004 under pressure from the Mubarak regime. (p
   14; 3,000 words)

   4. Article by Amirah Abu-al-Futuh denounces the views of "political thugs"
   like Amr Hamzawi, "who used to proudly describe himself in his articles"
   as a senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment, but stopped using this
   description now "because he realized that the Egyp tian people have
   discovered the suspicious nature of this institution." She also criticizes
   female judge Tahani al-Jibali, "who used to be one of the (first) lady's
   cronies," and Deputy Premier Yahya al-Jamal, who has recently declared his
   support for the call for writing a new constitution before holding any
   elections, and warned that "a religious state is much more dangerous than
   a police state." (p 20; 1,800 words)

   Cairo Al-Misri al-Yawm in Arabic -- Respected independent pro-reform daily
   focusing on domestic political issues; largest-circulation independent
   publication, especially widely read among youth

   1. Article by Muhammad Amin finds it odd that the New Wafd Party, which is
   the oldest liberal party in Egypt, has forged an alliance with the
   conservative Muslim Brotherhood in order to coordinate stance prior to
   parliamentary elections. (p 5; 800 word s)

   2. Article by Amr al-Shubaki stresses that although writing a new con
   stitution before holding parliamentary elections might be the better
   choice, "it is impossible to reverse a process in which we have all
   participated." He adds that "there is no alternative to respecting the
   outcome of the referendum (on constitutional amendments)"; because "the
   first message sent to the Egyptian people after the first democratic
   referendum must not be that 'your opinion does not count and there are
   people who know and understand better than you'." (p 20; 1,300 words)

   3. Article by Ghada Muhammad al-Sharif says a number of young men
   belonging to the Muslim Brotherhood have formed a new party called "the
   Egyptian Trend" because they refuse to join the Brotherhood's Freedom and
   Justice Party, and suspect that it would not be independent from the
   group. (p 6; 600 words)

   4. Article by Hani al-Waziri points out that "about 4,000 young members of
   the Muslim Brotherhood have officially announced that they would join the
   campaign to back Dr Abd-al-Mun'im Abu-al-Futuh's presidential campaign"
   and that the group has "frozen their membership." (p 1; 200 words)

   Cairo Al-Dustur in Arabic -- Independent daily opposed to the regime and
   specifically the Mubarak family

   1. Article by Rif'at al-Sa'id warns that one of the most dangerous
   problems facing the Arab world is the attempt to justify foreign
   interference "specifically by the United States, Europe and sometimes
   Israel under the pretext of confronting despotic regimes." (p 4; 600
   words)

   2. Article by Majdi Ahmad Husayn describes exporting natural gas to Israel
   as "corruption and high treason." (p 5; 300 words; processing)

   Cairo Rose al-Yusuf in Arabic -- Staunch pro-regime daily that frequently
   carries a stridently anti-American editorial line; closely connected to
   the ruling National Democratic Party and the Policies Secretariat
   specifically, which is headed by Jam al Mubarak, President Mubarak's son

   1. Report says the former ministers of finance and trade, Yusuf Butrus
   Ghali and Rashid Muhammad Rashid, who are both wanted for crimes of
   corruption and abuse of power, are living in the same building in London.
   (pp 1, 5; 3,000 words)

   Cairo Al-Shuruq al-Jadid in Arabic - Independent pro-reform liberal daily,
   moderately critical of the government

   1. Article by Ashraf al-Barbari warns that "the rebels have become the
   most dangerous threat to Egypt's revolution, because the dispute over what
   steps to take in order to build the democratic regime, for which blood was
   pilled, has turned into a vicious conflict in which rivals are using all
   the weapons that rebels should never use against Each other." He goes on
   to say that "the nightmare would be become a reality if the Supreme
   Council of the Armed Forces agreed with the commotion made by those who
   raise the slogan 'the constitution first' and decided to rea rrange the
   stages of the political process." (p 5; 600 words)

   2. Article by Wa'il Qandil cites Syria's crackdown on protesters to argue
   that "this is the dominant mentality in all Arab revolutions: Arab tyrants
   think that they are larger than the world and stronger than the universe."
   He adds that they also "consider all these revolutions part of a major
   international imperialistic conspiracy." (p 4; 600 words)

   3. Article by Imad-al-Din Husayn stresses that what Egypt needs now are
   "real politicians capable of finding creative solutions to intractable
   problems." (p 1; 600 words)

   4. Article by Fahmi Huwaydi describes the UN report warning that Egypt has
   the highest rate of desertification in the world and could face famine in
   the near future as very serious and calls for urgent measures to tackle th
   is problem. (p 16; 700 words)

   5. Article by Amr Hamzawi explains that a number of political parties have
   agreed with the Muslim Brotherhood to establish "a democratic coalition
   for Egypt" to coordinate stances regarding the general principles of the
   constitution before a constituent assembly is formed to write the new
   constitution. (p 5; 600 words)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   89) Back to Top
   Central America Political and Economic Issues 23 June 11
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Central America -- OSC Summary
   Thursday June 23, 2011 18:58:25 GMT
   EL SALVADOR Administration Prepares Proposals To Promote Development
   - San Salvador La Prensa Grafica.com reports that the administration is
   preparing a series of proposals to promote the country's development that
   could be included in the Partnership for Growth initiative with the United
   States. Presidency Technical Secretary Alex Segovia explained the
   proposals comprise turning El Salvador into a producer and exporter of
   food, transforming the country into an integrated logistics center,
   attracting tourists, and expanding foreign trade through opening new
   markets, diversifying exports, and reducing dependency on the US market.
   Meanwhile, in the short-term the administration continues to negotiate a
   fiscal pact and prepares incentives for free zones. (San Salvador La
   Prensa Grafica.com in Spanish -- Website of independent, moderately
   conservative, largest-circulation daily founded by Jose Dutriz; critical
   of the FMLN; URL:

   http://www.laprensagrafica.com http://www.laprensagrafica.com )

   GUATEMALA Mexican, Central American Lead ers Demand US, Europe Control
   Drug Use, Gunrunning -

   Guatemala City Prensa Libre.com reports that Central America, Mexico,
   Colombia, and the Dominican Republic demanded that the United States and
   Europe assume their responsibility for the drug trade and do more to
   reduce demand for illegal drugs, control gunrunning, and the sales of
   precursor chemicals, as well as provide additional funds to the fight
   against drug cartels. Mexican President Felipe Calderon said international
   counternarcotics assistance was not "charities" and called for a "real"
   increase. Guatemalan President Alvaro Colom noted that the United States
   shares a responsibility since it consumes 83% of the narcotics that pass
   through the region. Costa Rican President Laura Chinchilla stated that
   "consumer nations should direct resources to to Central America for the
   fight against organized crime," while her Salvadoran counterpart Mauricio
   Funes asserted that "as demands rises, so does supply in the same
   measure." (Guatemala City Prensa Libre.com in Spanish -- Website of
   independent highest circulation daily; Editor-in-Chief Gonzalo Marroquin
   Godoy URL:

   http://www.prensalibre.com/ http://www.prensalibre.com ) (OSC plans to
   text this item) Article Notes Dangers Faced By Mayoral Candidates

   - Guatemala City Prensa Libre.com publishes an op-ed article by Renzo
   Lautaro Rosal noting that 68 candidates were murdered during the 2007
   electoral campaign while several mayoral candidates have already been
   killed during the current electoral process. He asserts candidates in
   municipal races are especially vulnerable and describes several factors
   characterizing local elections. First, the central government and its
   security forces have a weak presence in most municipalities. This lack of
   presence by the state leads to the second factor where groups replace the
   proper authorities in exercising control over the municipality's residents
   an d territory. Third, the electoral violence discourages citizen
   participation and promotes uncertainty; fourth impunity prevails as
   investigations into irregularities are blocked. Fifth, political parties
   show little interest in their candidates at the municipal level because
   the two sides enter into an unspoken pact. The candidate needs a means to
   run for public office and the party needs someone to represent it in the
   local race. This results in a temporary agreement between the candidate
   and the party to win control of the municipal government, which is a
   source of power and wealth. Local governments are a prize for criminal
   organizations but are also "a desired political resource, with multiple
   nooks that allow for a network of relations marked by agreements and l
   ittle transparency, where even the most unimaginable actions can find a
   place." UNE-Gana Candidate Killed In Moyuta Municipality -

   Guatemala City Sigloxxi.com reports that Rony Rodriguez, runnin g for a
   seat at the municipal council of Moyuta, Jutiapa department, was fatally
   shot while riding his motorcycle near the Poza del Llano village. He
   expired shortly after arriving at a local hospital. Rodriguez was a
   candidate for the alliance between the National Unity for Hope (UNE) and
   Great National Alliance (Gana). (Guatemala City Sigloxxi.com in Spanish --
   Website of business-oriented daily published by Corporacion de Noticias;
   URL:

   http://www.sigloxxi.com/ http://www.sigloxxi.com/ )

   HONDURAS International Commission To Verify Implementation of Cartagena
   Accords

   - Tegucigalpa El Heraldo.hn reports that an international commission
   created to verify the implementation of the Cartagena Accord, which
   allowed Honduras to rejoin the OAS and former President Manuel Zelaya to
   return, will arrive today in the country. The commission is comprised by
   the Colombian and Venezuelan deputy foreign ministers and is in the
   country after former President Manuel Zel aya denounced that the accord
   was violated when a Honduran judge ordered that his former presidency
   minister Enrique Flores Lanza remain under house arrest while awaiting
   trial for embezzlement. President Porfirio Lobo Sosa had called on the
   Judicial Branch to issue decisions "framed by the law and with total
   impartiality" to avoid jeopardizing efforts at national reconciliation.
   (Tegucigalpa El Heraldo.hn in Spanish -- Website of center-right daily
   that features in-depth investigative and economic reporting; the daily's
   president, Jorge Canahuati Larach, also publishes daily La Prensa.hn; URL:

   http://www.elheraldo.hn www.elheraldo.hn ) President Lobo Discusses
   Security With US Secretary of State

   - Tegucigalpa El Heraldo.hn reports that President Porfirio Lobo Sosa
   yesterday met with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Guatemala
   during the International Conference To Support the Central America
   Security Strategy. The two leaders discussed fightin g organized crime and
   drug trafficking. Honduras requested that the United States provide
   assistance to reinforce the Police, criminal investigations, border
   security, and the legal system. Other requests included support for a
   campaign to promote human rights, strengthening the Prosecutor's Office
   and the prison system, and logistics support for the military. During his
   stay in Guatemala, Lobo also met with his Mexican and Colombian
   counterparts. Lawmakers Expand Period Authorities Can Hold Suspect

   - San Pedro Sula Tiempo.hn reports that despite opposition from the Human
   Rights Ministry, lawmakers reformed the Constitution to increase to 48
   hours the time the authorities can hold an individual before appearing in
   court. Lawmakers said the reform would benefit the fight against organized
   crime. Lawmakers also approved reforms through which a judge can start
   judicial proceedings against a suspect with just a Police report that
   contains the suspect's declaration. (San P edro Sula Tiempo.hn in Spanish
   -- Website of center-left daily; URL:

   http://www.tiempo.hn www.tiempo.hn )

   NICARAGUA FSLN Accused of Preparing Electoral Fraud -

   Managua LA PRENSA.com.ni reports that Mauricio Zuniga, director of the
   Institute for Development and Democracy (Ipade), accused the Sandinista
   National Liberation Front (FSLN) of preparing a fraud with assistance from
   the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE). Zuniga explained that the CSE gave
   the FSLN and its allies control of the municipal election councils (CEM)
   and the departmental election councils (CED), which translates into
   control of the polling station boards (JRV). This will create uncertainty
   among opposition parties and reduce voter confidence in the election
   process. He noted that the Independent Liberal Party (PLI) allia nce
   should have obtained representation in 30% of the JRVs, but so far it has
   representatives in only 7%. Other irregularities noted by Zuniga include
   the fact that the FSLN controls the personnel responsible for issuing
   identification cards, reviewing challenges to the electoral process, data
   transmission, and revision of the electoral results. The FSLN control of
   the JRV could also serve to turn away opposition voters and tamper with
   tally sheets. (Managua LA PRENSA.com.ni in Spanish -- Website of
   independent leading national circulation daily; La Prensa generally
   supports free market, neo-liberal economics and is largely pro-US. Owned
   by the Chamorro family; URL:

   http://www.laprensa.com.ni/ http://www.laprensa.com.ni/ ) Political
   Activism Factor In Choosing Best Students, Teachers

   - Managua LA PRENSA.com.ni reports that Teachers Labor Unity (USM) member
   Ena Fuentes denounced that the Education Ministry includes in its
   evaluation of students and teachers their political activism. She said
   that students with membership in the Federation of Secondary School
   Students and the Sandinista Youth are given preference as well as thos e
   that support President Daniel Ortega's reelection campaign. Experts
   denounced the measure as an attempt to use the education system as a tool
   to favor a political party.

   The following media were scanned and no file worthy items were noted:

   San Jose La Prensa Libre Online

   San Jose Nacion.com

   San Salvador Diario Co Latino.com

   San Salvador Ministry of Foreign Relations of the Republic of El Salvador

   Managua El Pueblo Presidente Online

   Attachments:Central--America--General--sm.jpg

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   90) Back to Top
   Mexico Political Issues 23 Jun 11 - Mexico -- OSC Summary
   Thursday June 23, 2011 19:21:39 GMT
   -- Mexico's Foreign Relations Secretariat (SRE) declares in a press
   statement that the Mexican Government "strongly condemns" the death of a
   Mexican citizen in a "violent incident" in Tijuana, involving US Border
   Patrol agents. The SRE statement reveals that "through its Consulate
   General in San Diego, (the Mexican Government) immediately asked Border
   Patrol officials for a detailed explanation of the facts and for a
   thorough investigation that does not interfere with the duties of Mexican
   law enforcement officials. The Mexican embassy in Washington is repeating
   the same request, and it is being conveyed through diplomatic channels in
   Mexico City." The statement goes on to declare that "the use of firearms
   to repel attacks with stones, as preliminary information indicates may
   have been the case in this incident, is a disproportionate use of force."
   (Mexico City SRE Foreign Relations Secretariat in Spanish -- Official
   website of the Mexican Secretariat of Foreign Relations, SRE; URL:

   http://www.sre.gob.mx/ http://www.sre.gob.mx/ ) Calderon Demands
   Punishment for Death of Mexican National

   -- Mexico City Reforma reports that President Felipe Calderon revealed on
   his Twitter account that, during a summit on Central American security
   held in Guatemala, he had brought up the death of a Mexican national in
   Tijuana with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Referring to the
   Mexican allegedly killed by agents of the US Border Patrol, Calderon
   tweeted that "in Guatemala I protested to Secretary Clinton over the death
   of a Mexican in Tijuana. I demanded punishment for those responsible."
   (Mexico City REFORMA.com in Spanish -- Website of major center-right daily
   owned by Grupo Reforma; URL:

   http://www.reforma.com/ http://www.reforma.com/ ) Mexico-US
   Relations/Guatemala Security Summit: At Guatemala Summit, Cal deron Calls
   for More Spending on Security in Central America

   -- Mexico City El Universal reports that with the United States offering
   $300 million to bolster Central America's strategy against crime,
   President Felipe Calderon declared that this was not a charity case, and
   that the region needed no less than $35 billion to tackle organized crime,
   as this was the estimated income generated by drug trafficking. Meanwhile,
   the Central American Integration System (SICA) -- which includes Costa
   Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Belize, and Panama,
   with Mexico as an observer -- signed a Declaration on Central America's
   Security Strategy, with the aim of improving cooperation and coordination
   in the fight against drug trafficking, people, trafficking, and organized
   crime. Nevertheless, SICA acknowledged that this strategy lacked the
   necessary resources for its implementation, and called for greater support
   from the international community. (Mexico City EL UNI VERSAL.com.mx in
   Spanish -- Website of influential centrist daily; URL

   http://www.eluniversal.com.mx http://www.eluniversal.com.mx ) At Guatemala
   Summit, Calderon Warns Crime Holding Back Development

   -- Mexico City El Universal reports that during the International
   Conference to Support the Security Strategy in Central America, held in
   Guatemala, President Felipe Calderon warned that crime and violence were
   becoming the main obstacle to the development of countries in the region.
   (OSC is translating this article as LAP20110623016004 At Guatemala Summit,
   Mexico's Calderon Warns Crime Holding Back Development) Colombia's Santos
   Declares Officials on Payroll of Cartels

   -- Mexico City Reforma reports that during his address to the summit on
   Central American security, Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos declared
   that among those present at the summit there w ere officials on the
   payroll of drug trafficking cartels. "I can assure you, and forgive me fo
   r being so frank, that here, in this meeting, there are many people who
   are on the payroll of drug traffickers and are informing drug traffickers
   of what goes on in real time," Santos declared, addressing an audience
   that included six presidents, numerous delegates, diplomats, and heads of
   international organizations. Mexico-US Conference on Reduction of Drug
   Use: At Conference With US, Health Secretary Acknowledges Rise of Domestic
   Drug Use

   -- Mexico City Excelsior reports that during a Mexico-United States
   binational conference on reducing the demand for drugs, Health Secretary
   Jose Angel Cordova acknowledged that drug use in Mexico had risen,
   although he highlighted the government's efforts to prevent this rise.
   (Mexico City EXonline in Spanish -- Website of major right-of-center daily
   Excelsior owned by Grupo Imagen; URL

   http://www.exonline.com.mx http://www.exonline.com.mx ) (OSC is
   translating this article as LAP20110623016003 At Conference With US,
   Mexico Acknowledges Rise of Domestic Drug Use) Other Political News:
   Calderon Calls for Greater Benefits for Relatives of Killed, Maimed Troops

   -- Mexico City El Universal reports that President Felipe Calderon
   proposed to the Legislative Branch's Permanent Commission a package of
   reforms to the law governing the Mexican Armed Forces Social Security
   Institute (ISSFAM), in order to grant greater benefits and welfare
   protection to relatives of troops killed or maimed in action. Among other
   measures, Calderon proposed that the widow of a member of the military
   killed in action should receive a lifelong pension of no less than 10,000
   pesos ($840) per month. Editorials &amp;amp; Commentary: Leftist Daily
   Criticizes Calderon's Speech at Guatemala Summit

   -- An editorial in Mexico City La Jornada notes that in his speech at the
   International Conference to Support the Security Strategy in Central
   America, held in Guatemala, President Felipe Calderon urged the US Governm
   ent to "review the paradigms of the fight against drugs, which have so far
   proven to have clear weaknesses." Nevertheless, the editorial points out
   that, just days before this call for a change of paradigm, Calderon had
   rejected the conclusions of the Global Commission on Drug Policy, which
   had called for a radical rethinking of the international war on drugs, and
   it concludes that the Mexican president merely seems to be accusing the
   United States of not doing enough to reduce drug use and prevent
   gunrunning. As for Calderon's demand that $35 billion should be invested
   in the fight against organized crime, the editorial calls this figure
   "unrealistic and exorbitant," and it adds that given the
   "counterproductive" effects of the amounts spent so far on this fight, it
   is "terrifying" to imagine what this increase in funding would generate.
   Finally, the editorial criticizes Calderon's "offensive" remark that many
   Central Americ an nations are "in the hands of the lords of death."
   (Mexico City La Jornada Online in Spanish -- Website of major left-leaning
   daily, critical of PAN and PRI administrations; URL:

   http://www.jornada.unam.mx http://www.jornada.unam.mx ) Centrist Daily
   Warns of Rise of Common Crime

   -- An editorial in Mexico City El Universal declares that the arrest of a
   Familia Michoacana kingpin is good news, but it adds that dismantling the
   leadership of these criminal organizations has only led to their
   "dispersal into smaller and more dangerous groups." Citing figures on the
   rise of common crime over the past four years, the editorial declares that
   local police forces do not appear to be up to the challenge, and it warns
   that beyond the direct effects of crime and violence on citizens, the
   economy, investments, and tourism are also being affected. In view of this
   deter iorating situation, the editorial urges federal and local
   authorities, as well as legi slators, to overcome their current tendency
   to lay the blame at each other's doorstep, and it calls upon them to
   improve the coordination required for an effective fight against crime,
   while stepping up their efforts to clean up local law enforcement bodies.
   Commentator: Kingpin's Arrest Not To Affect 'Structural' Problem of Local
   Police Corruption

   -- A commentary by Jorge Fernandez Menendez in Mexico City Excelsior
   declares that while the arrest of Jesus a.k.a "El Chango" Mendez will
   speed up the dismantling of the Familia Michoacan cartel and will alter
   the situation of drug trafficking throughout the region, it will not
   reduce the influence of organized crime in the Tierra Caliente area of
   Michoacan and Guerrero. Fernandez Menendez declares that drug trafficking
   gangs will maintain control of the region, and he adds that beyond any
   realignment or shift of power in the turf war affecting the area, the real
   problem is the "structural issue" that l ocal police forces are
   "profoundly permeated by organized crime."

   The following media were scanned and no file-worthy items were noted:

   (Mexico City Milenio.com in Spanish -- Website of independent, centrist
   daily owned by Grupo Editorial Milenio; URL:

   http://www.milenio.com/ http://www.milenio.com/ )

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   91) Back to Top
   Colombia Political-Economic Issues 22-23 Jun 11 - Colombia -- OSC Summary
   Thursday June 23, 2011 12:55:41 GMT
   POLITICAL ISSUES: Santos Says Fight Against Drug Trafficking Must Be
   Comprehensive

   -- Cali El Pais r eports on 22 June that President Juan Manuel Santos has
   called upon Central America to make use of Colombia's experience in the
   area of drug-trafficking and organized crime. During an international
   conference on security strategies in Central America, Santos asserted: "We
   have learned that we have to hit them at each link in the chain...hit them
   relentlessly in the production of the drugs, in the processing, the
   laboratories, consumption, money laundering, and the confiscation of
   assets from the drug trade." Specifically, he proposed the creation of a
   financial information platform that would allow various countries to have
   real-time access to information about individuals entering a given
   country. (Cali El Pais in Spanish -- Website of Pro-Conservative Party
   daily; URL:

   http://www.elpais.com.co/ http://www.elpais.com.co ) (OSC will translate
   this item) Oil Sector Presses for Clarification About Investigation Into
   Alleged Pay-offs

   -- Bogota La Republi ca reports on 22 June that the president of
   Colombia's Petroleum Association (ACP), Alejandro Martinez, has called
   upon the government to be more forthcoming with information about its
   investigation into the extortion payments that a company in the sector was
   allegedly making to an illegal armed group. He said that the uncertainty
   was "creating a bad atmosphere among oil companies" and inducing the
   companies to look at one another suspiciously. Martinez said it would have
   been better for the government not to have "generalized" in this case.
   (Bogota larepublica.com.co in Spanish -- Website of business and financial
   newspaper; URL:

   http://www.larepublica.com.co http://www.larepublica.com.co ) Reports
   Suggest FARC's Fabian Ramirez Still Alive

   -- Cali El Pais reports on 22 June that testimony by FARC deserters
   suggests that FARC leader Fabian Ramirez (Jose Benito Cabrera) survived a
   bombing of his camp last year. Armed Forces Commander Edgar Ce ly
   acknowledged that information provided by demobilized guerrillas and other
   intelligence data was being evaluated in order to determine if Ramirez may
   have survived the bombing. He indicated that the Military was certain that
   Ramirez had been injured, but conceded that he was "apparently alive" or
   that at least this would have to be the presumption, based on the new
   information. Colombia Desists in Extradition Case Against Chilean

   -- Bogota El Tiempo reports on 22 June that a judge in Chile has dismissed
   the case against Manuel Olate, the man that the Colombian Government had
   accused of being a collaborator to the FARC. Colombia withdrew its
   extradition request against Olate this past Friday, presumably because the
   main evidence against him were photos (showing the defendant with the late
   Raul Reyes) recovered from laptops at a FARC camp that was bombed by the
   Colombian Military in Ecuador. In a separate case, the Colombian Supreme
   Court ruled that evidenc e from the laptops was inadmissible because it
   had been obtained illegally. (Bogota eltiempo.com in Spanish -- Website of
   pro-Liberal Party, most influential newspaper published by Casa Editorial
   El Tiempo with the largest circulation in Colombia; URL:

   http://www.eltiempo.com/ http://www.eltiempo.com ) Sectors of PDA Party
   Calling for Resignation of Moreno

   -- Bogota El Tiempo reports on 22 June that some sectors of the
   Alternative Democratic Pole (PDA) party have suggested that Bogota Mayor
   Samuel Moreno, currently serving a 3-month disciplinary suspension, should
   consider a formal resignation. After it was announced that Moreno will
   face a criminal as well as a disciplinary investigation, respected PDA
   members like Gloria Ines Ramirez and Carlos Gaviria reiterated their
   earlier calls in this regard, insisting that Moreno needed to dedicate
   time to his own defense and that this was not compatible with performing
   mayoral duties.

   ECONOMIC ISSUES: Fitch Joi ns Other Agencies in Granting Colombia
   Investment-grade Rating

   -- Bogota El Espectador reports on 22 June that the Fitch risk-rating firm
   has announced an investment-grade rating for Colombian debt. It joins
   firms Moody's and Standard &amp;amp; Poor's, both of which made the same
   adjustment in recent weeks. (Bogota elespectador.com in Spanish -- Website
   of right-leaning daily owned by Bavaria Group and Santodomingo family;
   URL:

   http://www.elespectador.com http://www.elespectador.com ) Foreign Firms
   Offer Recommendations for Modifying Tender Process for Public-works
   Projects

   -- Bogota La Republica reports on 22 June that a group of foreign
   engineering and construction firms have submitted a series of
   recommendations to the Transportation Ministry. The group suggested--based
   on their past experiences--a series of changes to the technical conditions
   of tender processes so as to promote increased foreign investment in
   infrastructure projects. One of the sug gestions was to revise the method
   of scoring technical and financial aspects of a proposal, allowing a
   company to win a tender process by the completeness of its proposal.
   Another recommendation was for the government to hold back on requiring a
   financial guarantee from a firm until the contract is actually granted.
   They argued that in the current system, companies are forced to tie up
   resources (as much as 20% to 30% of the overall cost of a project) for
   long periods of time as they await the conclusion of the tender process.

   COMMENTARY: El Tiempo Editorial Urges Resignation of Moreno in Bogota

   -- El Tiempo asserts on 22 June that the Attorney General's announcement
   of criminal charges against suspended Bogota Mayor Samuel Moreno make it
   even more unlikely that Moreno will ever make it back to his office at
   Palacio Lievano. It insists that Moreno will have to put all of his energy
   into his own defense in the six month remaining of his mandate and
   therefore arg ues that "although on various occasions Samuel Moreno has
   adamantly denied the possibility of resigning, it is now time to turn in
   that resignation and place the interests of those he represents over his
   own." Duque Denounces Double Standard in US Conditions for FTA

   -- Portafolio commentator Ivan Duque asserts on 22 June that there is "no
   doubt" that the free-trade agreement with Colombia will be passed soon by
   the US Congress. He laments that in order to get to this point Colombia
   has had to accept demands attributable to pressure from the large US labor
   unions--demands that he considers to be "factors of concern." "The sad
   thing is that the US unions will stand proud for having imposed something
   on us that in their country they made a political pact--some time ago--not
   to carry out. Meanwhile, in Colombia we will be celebrating in the face of
   laws that will make it more difficult for the locomotive of innovation,
   driven by small an d medium-size businesses, to get off to a strong
   start." (Bogota Portafolio.com.co in Spanish -- Website of economic and
   business newspaper; URL:

   http://www.portafolio.com.co http://www.portafolio.com.co )

   The following media were scanned and no file-worthy items were selected:

   (Medellin El Colombiano.com in Spanish -- Website of pro-Conservative
   Party, leading Medellin daily; URL:

   http://www.elcolombiano.com/ http://www.elcolombiano.com )

   (Bogota Semana.com in Spanish -- Website of private, most influential
   weekly news magazine; URL:

   http://www.semana.com http://www.semana.com )

   (Bogota Office of the President in Spanish - Official website of the
   Colombian Presidency; URL:

   http://web.presidencia.gov.co/ http://web.presidencia.gov.co/ )

   (Bogota Ministry of National Defense of the Republic of Colombia in
   Spanish -- Official website of the Colombian Ministry of National Defense;
   URL:

   http://www.mindefen sa.gov.co/ http://www.mindefensa.gov.co )

   (Bogota Ministry of Foreign Relations of the Republic of Colombia in
   Spanish -- Official website of the Colombian Ministry of Foreign
   Relations; URL:

   http://www.cancilleria.gov.co/ http://www.cancilleria.gov.co )

   (Twitter in English -- Website providing a social networking and
   micro-blogging service that enables users to send and read messages known
   as "tweets"; URL:

   http://twitter.com http://twitter.com )

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   92) Back to Top
   Iran Economic Sanctions, Government Corruption, 15-21 June 2011
   Correction: Deleted "[Beijing and Tehran]" in third paragraph; Changed &amp;qu
   ot;20 May" to "20 June" in ninth paragraph - Iran -- OSC Summary
   Thursday June 23, 2011 20:06:06 GMT
   The following are highlights of Iranian sanctions- and corruption- related
   issues as reported on various Iranian domestic and expatriate websites
   monitored by OSC. Sanctions Ahmadinezhad: Iran Number One in Technological
   Advances Despite Sanctions - Aftab News

   on 15 June cited Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinezhad as saying that "the
   enemies tried to stop the Iranian nation's progress" by imposing sanctions
   but that Iran "currently holds first place" in scientific and
   technological advances. The Iranian president pointed to the "downfall" of
   communism and the "near future end" of capitalism and added that Iran is
   "the only country that has the answers to humanity's needs." Ahmadinezhad
   went on to say: "There is not even one person who goes to bed hungry in
   all of Iran" (Aftab News in Persian - conservative, pro-Hashemi Rafsanjani
   website run by Hasan Rowhani, former secretary of the Supreme National
   Security Council and current head of the Expediency Council's Strategic
   Studies Center Council; www.aftabnews.ir). Russian Official: Russia Will
   Not 'Ignore' Sanctions -

   The website Asr-e Iran on 15 June cited the Russian website Itar-Tass in
   saying that, according to Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov,
   his nation considers Iran a "neighbor" and a "partner" and that, although
   Russia does not intend to "reconsider its position" with Iran in order to
   "please America or the NATO," it does not plan to "ignore" the UN
   sanctions against the Islamic Republic. The Russian official reportedly
   added that Iran is "an important nation for Russia" and that Russia's
   southern border security is "largely dependent on Iran's policy" in that
   region (Asr-e Iran in Persian - pro-reform website; www.asriran.com).
   Chinese President Urges Ahmadinezhad To Return to Negotiating Table -

   On 15 June, Aftab News reported that, at the meeting of the Shanghai
   Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Kazakhstan, Chinese President Hu Jintao
   asked Ahmadinezhad to return to the negotiating table and "take meaningful
   steps to create trust between the two sides." According to the report,
   Jintao "emphasized" that restarting negotiations is in Iran's best
   interests and is needed for the establishment of peace and security in the
   region. The report added that China has "disagreed with imposing new
   sanctions" on Iran but "never voted against the four UN resolutions
   against Iran" in the past five years. China 'Refusing' To Implement Gas
   Field Agreement With Iran -

   On 18 June the website Rah-e Sabz reported that the China National
   Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) is "refusing" to implement a $5 billion
   agreement that was signed almost two years ago to develop phase 11 of the
   South Pars region (a gas field located in the Persian Gulf). According to
   the report, Iran will begin negotiating with domestic contractors if the
   delay by the Chinese company continues. The report added that another
   Chinese company (CNOOC) has delayed implementing a $15 billion agreement
   to develop the North Pars gas field for the past five years (Rah-e Sabz in
   Persian - Official news website of the pro-reform Green Path of Freedom
   Movement; www.rahesabz.net). Sanctions, Poor Policies Destroying Iran's
   Pharmaceutical Industry - Kalemeh

   on 19 June reported that, as a result of "pressures from sanctions" as
   well as "poor import policies," Ira n's pharmaceutical industry faces
   tough difficulties and that, "similar to many other industries in the
   country," it is "at the brink of bankruptcy." The report added that,
   because of sanctions from "international organizations and developed
   countries," Iran's pharmaceutical industry is unable to use banks to
   transfer funds for the purchase of raw products. According to the report,
   another obstacle facing the industry is the inability to import the needed
   parts for use in the production machinery. The report went on to say that,
   although the Iranian pharmaceutical industry was forced to import lower
   quality raw products from India and China, because of the
   "ineffectiveness" of the medicine being made from those products,
   physicians usually recommend that their patients purchase imported
   medicine at a much higher price than the medicine that is produced
   domestically (Tehran Kalemeh in Persian - reformist website affiliated
   with former Prime Minister Mir Hoseyn Musavi, initially launched in
   January 2009 to promote his candidacy for the 2009 presidential election;
   www.kaleme.com). MP: Unemployment Figures Incorrect Consid ering
   Sanctions, Subsidy Reform -

   The Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) on 19 June cited Jafar Qaderi,
   spokesman for the Majles Committee on Economic Jihad, as saying that the
   unemployment numbers that were provided by the government cannot be
   correct and are "unacceptable" in light of the fact that sanctions and
   subsidy reform have "placed pressure on the country's production
   capacity." Qaderi added that Iran experienced its largest industrial
   growth of 14 percent in the year 1383 (21 March 2004 - 20 March 2005)
   during which 300,000 to 400,000 new jobs were created. "How can the
   government claim to create 2.5 million jobs this year under the current
   conditions?" he asked. Qaderi went on to say that $20 billion are needed
   to create 1.1 million jobs and that creating 2.5 million jobs is not
   possible with the "current level of investment" (Tehran Iranian Students
   News Agency (ISNA) in Persian and English - conservative news agen cy that
   now generally supports government policy; it had previously provided
   politically moderate reporting; linked to University Jihad; www.isna.ir).
   Iranian Minister: 25 Percent Growth in Insurance Industry Despite
   Sanctions - Econews

   on 19 June cited Shamsoddin Hoseyni, Iran's minister of economics and
   finance, as saying that, despite sanctions, Iran's insurance industry grew
   by 25 percent in the past (Iranian calendar) year. He added that new laws
   have removed limits in the industry. "One of the laws," he said, "repeals
   the necessity for governmental units to purchase insurance from the Iran
   Insurance Company (state-controlled insurance company). According to
   Hoseyni, 19 of the 20 insurance companies in the country are private. The
   Iranian minister went on to say that the Islamic Republic imported $70
   billion in commodities during the previous year, while it exported $32
   billion of non-oil and $70 billion of oil products (ECONews online -
   website re porting on economic news in Farsi and English; www.econews.ir).

   Shamsoddin Hoseyni Fars News: Iran Importing 200,000 Tons of Petrol
   Despite Sanctions -

   Citing the website Bloomberg, the Fars News Agency on 20 June said that
   Iran is importing 200,000 metric tons of petroleum each month despite US
   sanctions. According to the report, most of Iran's imported petroleum
   comes from Asia (Tehran Fars News Agency in Persian and English -
   hard-line pro-Ahmadinezhad news agency; headed as of December 2007 by
   Hamid Reza Moqaddamfar, who was formerly an IRGC cultural officer;
   www.farsnews.com). Ecuadorian Ambassador Says His Country 'Disagrees' With
   Sanctions -

   The Mehr News Agency on 20 June said that Bicente Blis, the new Ecuadorian
   ambassador to Iran, met that day with Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar
   Salehi and said that economic sanctions are an example of "the West's
   hypocrisy" and that his country disagrees with them. Blis reportedly added
   that hi s "main mission" is to try to develop "closer cultural, economic,
   and political ties" with the Islamic Republic. For his part, the Iranian
   foreign minister "expressed his satisfaction" about relations with Latin
   American nations and asked for closer ties between the two countries
   (Tehran Mehr News Agency in Persian and English - conservative news
   agency; run by the Islamic Propagation Office, which is affiliated with
   the conservative Qom seminary; www.mehrnews.com). Rah-e Sabz: Sanctions
   Contribute to Emergency Landing by Iranian Plane -

   The website Rah-e Sabz on 20 June reported that "American sanctions" have
   prevented Iranian airline companies from purchasing "modern Western
   planes" and that this contributed to the emergency landing of an aging
   aircraft owned by Mahan Air on 18 June in Tehran. There were reportedly no
   casualties. According to the report, Iran has "one of the highest rates"
   of air accidents in the world. "Iranian airlines have been purchasing or
   renting Russian aircraft, which have a lower safety standard than Western
   aircraft," the report added. Corruption 100 Provincial Officials Go on
   'Vacation' With 'People's Money' -

   On 15 June, Parleman News quoted Dariush Qanbari, Majles deputy and member
   of the Majles Social Affairs Committee, as saying that 100 top Ilam
   Province officials have taken a "vacation tour" to Tehran and Qom
   provinces using "people's money." The MP from Ilam added that "the high
   cost" of the tour was paid for by "cultural funds" belonging to the
   province of Ilam, while noting that Ilam "suffers from a lack of suitable
   drinking water and safe roads." Qanbari reportedly sent a "written notice"
   to President Ahmadinezhad and asked him to look into the reasons for
   spending "public funds" for the "group tour" (Tehran Parleman News in
   Persian - website a ffiliated with the Followers of the Imam Line bloc of
   reformist legislators in the Majles. Its spokesperson is Daryush Qanbari;
   www.parlemannews.com). Dariush Qanbari Tehran Province Officials Arrested
   - Kalemeh

   on 18 June reported that "some former and current" Tehran Province
   officials were summoned to Tehran courts and arrested in relation to their
   alleged roles in the Iran Insurance Company (IIC). The report added that
   the judiciary spokesman previously reported that some defendants in the
   case will be sentenced to life imprisonment or execution. The site went on
   to say that Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi is among the
   IIC's main defendants and that, "after the passing of 15 months,"
   officials who are "above the law" are preventing his trial. Controversy
   Surrounds Appointment of Deputy Foreign Minister -

   The website Alef on 18 June reported that Mohammad Sharif Malekzadeh was
   appointed deputy fo reign minister with Ahmadinezhad 's "insistence" while
   being investigated in the courts for financial and administrative
   corruption. According to the report, Malekzadeh is a former deputy to "the
   head of the deviant current" (referring to Esfandiar Rahim Masha`i ). The
   site added that, considering Malekzadeh 's corruption charges, "it was
   expected" that Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi would "resist the
   president's pressures" and "refuse to appoint" Malekzadeh. The report went
   on to say that some Majles deputies have "sent a message to the foreign
   minister saying that they will move to impeach him if he does not rescind
   the appointment" (Alef in Persian - website run by conservative Tehran
   Majles Deputy Ahmad Tavakkoli; www.alef.ir). Mohammad Sharif Malekzadeh

   In a related report on 19 June, Parleman News cited Ahmad Tavakkoli, the
   head of the Majles Research Center and MP from Tehran, as objecting to the
   appointm ent of the new deputy foreign minister and saying that he
   "warned" Salehi against appointing Malekzadeh but that the Iranian foreign
   minister replied by saying that there is no evidence for the appointee's
   corruption. Tavakkoli added: "Mr Salehi should check with the judiciary to
   see that hundreds of documents exist on his violations." He went on to
   say: "It is our misfortune that those who give 45 million tuman
   (approximately $45,000) watches and 160 million tuman automobiles to their
   sons are appointed to important positions."On 21 June, Fars News published
   the resignation letter of Malekzadeh written to the Iranian foreign
   minister and Salehi 's reply in which he accepted the resignation. In his
   letter, Malekzadeh denied charges of corruption by saying that "there are
   no cases pending" against him in any court for the alleged charges. He
   went on to say that his resignation is intended to "secure peace" in the
   country and release "the unfair pressure" from Salehi. Iran Judiciary
   Official Asks Government To Stay Out of Elections - Parleman News

   on 19 June reported that Ebrahim Re`isi, the Iranian judiciary's first
   vice chairman, "recommended" that the government (referring to the
   Ahmadinezhad administration) "demonstrate by its actions" that it will not
   "interfere" in the (March 2012 Majles) elections. He added that the
   judiciary will do its "duty" to ensure that the election laws are
   followed. Majles Committee Investigating Payments During 2009 Election -

   The Iranian Labor News Agency on 21 June cited Majles deputy Ali Borughani
   as reporting that the Majles Article 90 Committee (government corruption
   oversight committee) is currently investigating charges that the
   government paid 9 million people 80,000 tumans (approximately $80) each
   during the 2009 presidential election (see IAP20110530575001). The MP
   added that the results of the committee investigation will be announced
   after it is completed (Tehran Iranian Labor News Agency (ILNA) in Persian
   - moderate conservative news agency; generally supports government policy,
   but publishes some items reflecting non-official views; operates under the
   supervision of the Labor House and has links to the pro-Rafsanjani
   Kargozaran (Executives of Construction); www.ilna.ir). Ali Borughani

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   93) Back to Top
   US sanctions Iran's national airline
   "US Sanctions Iran's National Airline" -- NOW Lebanon Headline - NOW
   Lebanon
   Thursday June 23, 2011 17:33:08 GMT
   (NOW Lebanon) - The United States on Thursday imposed sanctions against
   Tehran's state-owned national airline, Iran Air, barring Americans from
   doing business with it.

   Iran Air has been used by Tehran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard
   Corps to "transport military related equipment" since 2006, the Treasury
   Department said in a statement.

   "Rockets or missiles have been transported via Iran Air passenger
   aircraft, and IRGC officers occasionally take control over Iran Air
   flights carrying special IRGC-related cargo," the statement said.

   "Additionally, commercial Iran Air flights have also been used to
   transport missile or rocket components to Syria."

   Iran Air has been under US sanctions since 1995 that have prevented any
   sale of Boeing or Airbus aircraft or spare parts to it, and as a result it
   has become one of the most dilapidated airlines in the world.

   The airline serves 35 international destinations in Asia and Europe.
   -AFP/NOW Lebanon

   (Description of Source: Beirut NOW Lebanon in English -- A
   privately-funded pro-14 March coalition, anti-Syria news website; URL:
   www.nowlebanon.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   94) Back to Top
   FYI -- Iranian Press TV Reports on 'Dismantling Spy Operation' - Press TV
   Thursday June 23, 2011 16:25:24 GMT
   During the program, a 31-year-old man, Jamshid Sadeq-Hoseyni, identified
   as the project manager of a company working for Iran's Atomic Energy
   Organization, explained how he was contacted by a job agency and offered a
   job opportunity. The reporter said these centers usually allured young
   Iranians with promises of "visas", "permanent residency" in foreign
   countries and "study opportunities". The narrator also said that Press TV
   was not allowed to show the faces of most of those "charged with spying"
   due to restrictions imposed by Iran's judiciary".

   The report added that US agents use people's "identities" to contact
   Iranian citizens and ask them to carry out covert operations. This was
   followed by the pixilated footage of an unnamed man who said that he was
   offered a US visa in exchange for his cooperation. The program also quoted
   US journalist, Seymour Hersh, as saying that "Bush administration launched
   a significant escalation of covert operations in Iran."

   A Tehran University professor Foad Izadi said that "such espionage
   operations were aimed at Iran's infrastructure". The report added that
   Iran's electricity netwo rk was one of the CIA's future targets. This was
   followed by the pixilated footage of a man identified as an engineer
   arrested for sending information related to Iran's electricity
   infrastructure to the CIA.

   The reporter said that CIA agents were careful not to leave any traces
   behind. Then a man named Ali Reza Vallian described how those who had
   contacted him had insisted on not being transparent about their
   identities. Later in the program, the reporter said that the US
   intelligence service used sophisticated ways to pay cash to their agents
   inside Iran, such as "hiding cash in the most unexpected places".

   Towards the end of the program, the reporter said that the CIA has tried
   to infiltrate Iran's oil and gas sector. A man who was identified as a
   senior government expert (whose face was pixilated) was quoted as saying
   that he had been contacted for access to detailed information on Iran's
   "most important source of foreign income."

   At the end of the program the narrator quoted the Intelligence Ministry as
   saying that "the most important outcome of dismantling the spy operation
   was that the US did not get what it was after.

   The program ended at 2059 GMT.

   No further processing planned.

   (Description of Source: Tehran Press TV in English -- 24-hour
   English-language news channel of Iranian state-run television, officially
   controlled by the office of the supreme leader)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   95) Back to Top
   Glencore CEO Could Replace Morgan Stanley's Simonyan on Zarubezhneft Board
   - Paper - Interfax
   Thursday June 23, 2011 12:26:05 GMT
   paper

   MOSCOW. June 23 (Interfax) - Rair Simonyan, head of Morgan Stanley in
   Russia, has decided to quit the board at oil company Zarubezhneft, where
   he is independent director, and has asked to be replaced by Ivan
   Glasenberg, chief executive at Swiss commodities trader Glencore, the
   Kommersant newspaper said, quoting a government source.The paper said
   Simonyan based his decision on the fact that Zarubezhneft operated in
   Cuba, against which U.S. sanctions are in place, and he works for an
   American bank. Zarubezhneft also plans to work in Iran.Simonyan has been a
   Zarubezhneft board members since 2009 and the government nominated him
   again in February this year.Pr(Our editorial staff can be reached at
   eng.editors@interfax.ru)Interfax-950140-AACILTET

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use m ay be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   96) Back to Top
   Israel's Oren Says Gaza Blockade 'Matter of Life And Death,' Notes Iranian
   Threat
   Report by Hilary Leila Krieger and Jordana Horn in Washington/New York:
   "Israel's Envoys to US, UN Justify Gaza Blockade" - The Jerusalem Post
   Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 10:40:04 GMT
   Oren said that Israel is pleased that the Turkish government is opposing
   the expedition and that Turkish group IHH has withdrawn its participation
   in the flotilla, which is set to mark the anniversary of the attempt last
   year to breach the blockade that left nine activists aboard IHH's ship
   dead after a confrontation with the Israel Navy.

   Turkey recalled its ambassador following last year's incident and demanded
   an apology for actions the IDF considered as self-defense, and Oren
   indicated that Jerusalem was in discussions with Ankara to find language
   that would satisfy both governments' requirements so that the rift could
   be mended.

   Oren said that the blockade was necessary to prevent rockets from reaching
   Gaza and then threatening Israel, and that under international maritime
   law, all ships must be prevented from reaching shore under a legal
   blockade, so no exception could be made for the anticipated flotilla.

   Oren also rejected the notion that Israel prefers to see Bashar Assad stay
   as president rather than face a Syria taken over by unknown elements.

   That idea is "categorically untrue," he stressed, saying that Israel
   couldn't imagine anyone "more devilish" than Assad.

   Oren also spoke of the danger posed by Iran, pointing out that the
   technical difficulties its nuclear program suffered last year had been
   overcome and that the country continues to enrich uran ium at a rapid
   rate.

   Israel is pressing for additional sanctions on the Islamic Republic, and
   expects the US to act on them in the coming days, but Oren said it was
   important to state that "all options are on the table" and make sure that
   declaration has teeth.

   "We've seen that a credible military threat can prove effective in
   dissuading Middle East dictators and autocracies from developing nuclear
   weapons," he said. (passage omitted)

   (Description of Source: Jerusalem The Jerusalem Post Online in English --
   Website of right-of-center, independent daily; URL:
   http://www.jpost.co.il)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   97) Back to Top
   Iraqi Kurdi sh Arabic Press 22 Jun 11
   The following lists selected items from two Baghdad-based Kurdish
   newspapers on 22 June. To request additional processing, please call OSC
   at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735, or fax (703) 613-5735. - Iraq -- OSC
   Summary
   Thursday June 23, 2011 09:08:29 GMT
   I. In a 150-word report by Ibrahim Muhammad Sharif, Al-Ittihad reports an
   exchange of letters between journalists' unions of Egypt and the Kurdistan
   Region. The two unions are talking about closer bilateral cooperation.
   (Description of source: Baghdad Al-Ittihad Online in Arabic -- Website of
   Al-Ittihad, daily newspaper published by the Iraqi Patriotic Union of
   Kurdistan, PUK; URL:http://www.alitthad.com/

   )

   II. In a 120-word report by PUKmedia, Al-Ittihad reports shelling on 21
   June by Turkish artillery in northern border areas of the Kurdistan
   Region. Concurrently, unidentified aircraft were observed overflying the
   area. On the same day, intense shelling of border areas by Iranian
   artillery was also reported, but no casualties were reported because the
   area is uninhabited.

   III. In a 130-word report, Al-Ittihad quotes a police department source in
   the Governorate of al-Anbar saying on 21 June that leading Iraqi security
   figures are preparing to take over security responsibilities soon from the
   US Forces stationed in al-Ramadi.

   IV. In a 180-word report, Al-Ittihad reports a statement by the Iraqi
   Independent High Electoral Commission saying that the Commission is about
   to start preparations for holding elections for membership of all
   Governorate Councils of the Kurdistan Region. Faraj al-Haydari told AKnews
   that a delegation from the Commission will arrive in Arbil in the next few
   days to prepare for the elections, which he expected to take place on or
   soon after 10 October.

   V. In a 150-word report, Al-Ittihad reports a statement by the min ister
   of higher education and scientific research declaring that a branch of the
   University of Ankara will be established in Arbil beginning the next
   academic year. Dalawir Ala-al-Din made the statement at a news conference
   on 21 June. Ala-al-Din added that the move will strengthen relations in
   education between Turkey and the Region. 2. Al-Ta'akhi:

   VI. In a 220-word report, Al-Ta'akhi reports the convening of a medical
   conference in Arbil to improve medical services in Iraq. The conference
   was organized by the International Medical Support Services, IMSS. It was
   attended by Dr. Tahir Hawrami, minister of health of the KRG, in addition
   to representatives of the Ministry of Higher Education, and by physicians,
   specialists, and practitioners from Iraq and the Kurdistan Region. Hawrami
   expressed the hope of seeing "all physicians under the umbrella of one
   organization that provides them with all the instructions and laws that
   govern their profession." (Des cription of source: Baghdad Al-Ta'akhi
   Online in Arabic -- Website of Al-Ta'akhi, daily newspaper published by
   the Iraqi Kurdistan Democratic Party, KDP; URL:

   http://www.taakhinews.org/ http://www.taakhinews.org/)

   VII. In a 90-word report, Al-Ta'akhi reports a meeting on 20 June of KRG
   Minister of Interior Karim Sinjari and Francisco Diaz, commissioner of the
   European Union's Rule of Law Commission, and his deputy Sergio Lopez. The
   commissioner was paying an end-of-service courtesy call to the minister.
   Sinjari thanked Diaz for his contributions to the legal, police, and
   security institutions of the Region and promised to continue cooperation
   with the Commission.

   VIII. In a 150-word report, Al-Ta'akhi quotes the head of the Kurdistan
   Region Chamber of Commerce and Industry declaring on 19 June that a large
   delegation is scheduled to leave on 25 June for Britain and Ireland. Dara
   Jalil Khayyat said the delegation includes the KRG minister of trade and
   industry, the minister of municipalities and tourism, high ranking
   officials of the Ministry of Natural Resources, specialists from the Prime
   Ministry and the Investment Commission, and a number of businessmen. The
   one-week tour seeks to build economic relations and increase the volume of
   commercial exchange.

   IX. In a 320-word report, Al-Ta'akhi reports the convening of the Kirkuk
   Governorate Council under the chairmanship of Hasan Turan Baha-al-Din and
   the participation of Arab council members who rejoined the council after a
   period of boycott. Abdallah Sami al-Asi of the Arab group thanked the
   council chairman and his deputy for their efforts to help end their
   boycott.

   X. In a 320-word report, Al-Ta'akhi reports a meeting in Salah-al-Din on
   21 June between Masrur Barzani, head of the Kurdistan Region Security
   Protection Agency, and a visiting delegation of high-ranking officials of
   the Romanian Embassy in Baghdad. The delegation included Ambassador Yakob
   P rada, Military Attache Nae Dan, Economic Adviser Catlin Stoika, and
   Robert Roslecu. They discussed the strengthening of bilateral relations.

   XI. In a 160-word report, Al-Ta'akhi reports a meeting in Salah-al-Din on
   21 June between Fadil Mirani, secretary of the Political Bureau of the
   KDP, and the French consul general in Arbil, Dr. Frederic Tissot. They
   discussed the strengthening of human rights and democracy in the Region.
   The Extension of the Stay of the US Forces in Iraq

   XII. In a 700-word report, Al-Ittihad reports the views of various members
   of the Iraqi parliament. It quotes MP Hamid al-Mutlaq, of the National
   Dialogue Bloc, saying at a news conference on 21 June that his Bloc
   "demands the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq and not extending
   their stay beyond 2011." He praises the stand of the Sadrist Trend in
   rejecting extension, and calls on the three presidents (the president of
   the Republic, president of the Council of Ministers, and speaker of the
   parliament) "to take a firm stand" on the issue. The paper quotes MP Ryad
   al-Zubaydi, of the Sadrist Trend, saying that religious authorities have
   not responded to the query presented to them by Muqtada al-Sadr (seeking
   the opinions of Iraqi religious leaders, including one Christian cardinal,
   and non-Iraqis, including Shiite and Sunni authorities in Lebanon and
   Egypt), except for Kazim al-Ha'iri, who ruled that "occupation forces must
   leave." The paper quotes an unidentified source saying that Muqtada's
   query asked: "If the occupation continues without approval from the
   government, what is our legal duty in supporting the government? And if
   the occupation remains with the approval of the government, what should
   our position be?" Meanwhile, MP Sa'd al-Matlabi of the State of Law
   Coalition says that "any extension should get approved by a national
   consensus, and through a new agreement with new features serving the na
   tional interest."

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   98) Back to Top
   UK Analyst Says 'Fresh Approach' Needed To Combat Terrorism - IRNA
   Thursday June 23, 2011 09:02:27 GMT
   "The current academic approach and understanding by many countries is
   totally off track to the true reality as to what is actually going on in
   the world at grass roots level," Eyre said. From his perspective, he said
   that it was very important to "focus as to what is classified as genuine
   terrorism and the terrorism that is created by 'none terrorist groups'
   such as overseas Special Forces, CIA, MI5 and Mos sad etc." Eyre speaks
   from his experience, having served in the military, including NATO HQ and
   having the responsibility for safety and security at a large Police
   Operations Centre, an International Airport and other Major Oil, Gas and
   Mining facilities. "We know that the West, as an example, carry out many
   'False Flag Operations' using their own special forces or security agents
   and then blame Al Qaeda or some other Islamic extremist group for the
   attack," he told IRNA. His argument is that this type of clandestine
   activity is done for the very reason "to create hysteria and panic among
   its own people or alternatively to justify an action such as conflict or
   war against a nation for which it has a commercial or economic plan."
   "Many examples exist where Islamic extremists have been blamed when in
   actual fact they were, what we call inside jobs, carried out by
   CIA/MI5/Mossad or other joint venture agents," Eyre said, suggesting many
   major incidents including 9/11, 7/7, Madrid Train Bombing, USS Cole,
   Detroit Airline, Times Square New York and even Pan Am Flight 103 are
   deeply suspect. "I will go a stage further to say that no terrorism acts
   have been carried out in the West for some considerable time by any
   Islamic group and I firmly believe that al Qaeda does not and has never
   actually ever existed. It was simple a name invented by the US to make 'A
   war on terrorism' legal." he said. This weekend, Iran is holding an
   international conference, entitled 'A World Without Terrorism, that
   includes representatives from some 80 countries, seeking a comprehensive
   approach against terrorism at international level. "I do not think it is
   possible for us to have a world without terrorism until we can identify
   what is genuine terrorism and who are the terrorist," Eyre said in his
   interview with IRNA. "Certainly a totally new approach is required and
   when one looks at the list of so called terroris t activities around the
   world we can safely say that around 50-75% of those were not actually
   carried out by 'real time terrorists'," he said. After almost a decade
   since the US launched the so-called war against terrorism, the British
   analyst said that Washington "has not achieved anything towards combating
   terrorism but rather the opposite." "If any country has an aggressive
   foreign policy and also has an aggressive economic expansion programme,
   such as that of the United States, then that alone can induce terrorism
   i.e. Imperialism creates self induced terrorism and the two together
   create poverty," he said. In the context of a completely fresh approach,
   Eyre said that it must be made in fighting true terrorism rather than any
   perceived type of terrorism or threat as claimed. "At the end of the day
   creating hysteria and panic among the people of our respective countries
   in the west is very good for business. It allows the expansion of the mil
   itary and its activities overseas, it is very good for the arms
   manufacturers," he warned. Even more importantly, he said that it allows
   such countries as the US to create its own police state by changing the
   law, citing the introduction of the Patriot Act 2001 as one classic
   example among many other changes since 9/11 that has now taken away the
   liberty of the average American.

   (Description of Source: Tehran IRNA in English -- Official state-run
   online news agency, headed as of January 2010 by Ali Akbar Javanfekr,
   former media adviser to President Ahmadinezhad. URL:http://www.irna.ir)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   99) Back to Top
   Iran's Judiciary Chief Rejects UN Hu man Rights Claims - Press TV Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 06:54:25 GMT
   23 June: Iran's Judiciary has dismissed accusations about alleged rights
   violations in Iran, rejecting UN's appointment of a special human rights
   rapporteur for the country.

   In a move spearheaded by the United States, the UN Human Rights Council on
   Friday (17 June) named former Maldivian Foreign Minister Ahmed Shaheed as
   its human rights investigator on the Islamic Republic.

   "On the issue of human rights, we will cooperate with the United Nations,
   but within a rational framework and not as an instrument against our
   country," said Iran's Judiciary Chief Ayatollah Sadeq Amoli Larijani,
   quoted in an IRNA report Wednesday (22 June).

   Recalling numerous cases of rights violations by Western powers, Ayatollah
   Larijani questioned the world body's silence on the killing and torture of
   civilians during the US-led wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

   "The US (is the one) that invaded Afghanistan and Iraq and massacred many
   people while proclaiming (support for) human rights. However, we have not
   forgotten (what went on at) Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib prisons," he added,
   referring to notorious US-run detention centres in Cuba and Iraq
   respectively.

   Ayatollah Larijani ruled out the West's attempts to impose what it regards
   as human rights principles on other nations and cultures.

   "We cannot agree with the human rights that they are pushing on us from
   their collection of Liberalist culture, since our own religious
   establishment can have a (comprehensive) rights system based on its own
   tenets," he said.

   The senior Iranian official expressed serious concerns that the issue of
   human rights has become a political instrument to pile up pressure against
   those that challenge the unjust domination of Western powers.

   (Description of Source: Tehran Press TV Online in English -- website of
   Tehran Press TV, 24-hour English-language news channel of Iranian
   state-run television officially controlled by the office of the supreme
   leader; www.presstv.ir)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   100) Back to Top
   Ukraine's security service, FBI bust cybercrime ring - Interfax-Ukraine
   Thursday June 23, 2011 15:51:03 GMT
   It said the hackers used a special computer virus called Conficer to
   access and withdraw money from foreign bank accounts.

   According to preliminary estimates, the banks' damages as a result of such
   actions amounted to about 72m dollars.

   The chief of the SBU directorate for counterintelligence support for state
   information security, Vitaliy Khlevytskyy, told a news conference on 23
   June that 16 members of the criminal ring had been interrogated. They are
   26 to 33 years old with solid IT background. None of them has been
   detained so far because a criminal case has not been opened yet.

   Khlevytskyy said that on 21 June over 30 searches were carried out abroad
   and 19 in Ukraine. Policemen confiscated about 30 servers, 74 computers
   and about 300 data storage devices, and froze 40 bank accounts in Cyprus
   and Latvia. "This is the first operation of this scale as far as cyber
   crimes are concerned," Khlevytskyy said.

   FBI special agent Norman Sanders said that the FBI had investigated this
   case for three years. As a result of information exchange, the SBU and the
   FBI learnt they were after the same people. "This special operation would
   not be possible without t he SBU involvement," he said.

   Ukraine-based Assistant Legal Attache Brent A. Smith said that the FBI
   experts were directly involved in the investigative actions carried out in
   Ukraine .

   (Description of Source: Kiev Interfax-Ukraine in Russian -- Service
   provided by the Russian news agency Interfax focusing on events in
   Ukraine)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   101) Back to Top
   US Company To Start Drilling in Cyprus' Exclusive Economic Zone by End of
   2011
   "Noble's Top Official Says Drilling To Start by the End of 2011"-Cyprus
   News Agency headline - CNA
   Thursday June 23, 2011 06:11:54 GMT
   (Description of Source: Nicosia CNA in English -- Government affiliated
   Cyprus News Agency)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   102) Back to Top
   Birri Demands Swift Action on Offshore Oil, Gas
   "Berri Demands Swift Action on Offshore Oil, Gas" -- The Daily Star
   Headline - The Daily Star Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 05:20:23 GMT
   Speaking to MPs during a weekly meeting at Parliament, Berri said issuing
   the necessary decrees to render the oil law functional should be among the
   new government's top priorities.

   He said major revenues could be secured if Lebanon's offshore reserves of
   gas and oil were properly exploited.

   A private petrochemical firm has estimated the amount of fossil fuel
   reserves in Israeli waters to be 450 billion cubic meters; Lebanon says
   its share should prove to be greater.

   Berri told MPs that Italian petroleum experts had informed him that
   Lebanon could gain $70 million if it exploits one of the gas fields found
   in its territorial water.

   Lebanon had sent a letter to the U.N. asking for support in preventing
   Israel tapping oil and gas resources under the eastern Mediterranean
   seabed and U.N. Special Coordinator for Lebanon Michael Williams has
   repeatedly promised his organization will help safeguard Lebanon's
   reserves.

   Separately, Berri stressed the need for a swift drafting of the new
   government's policy statement, adding that the Cabinet has a set of
   internal and external challenges to tackle.

   "The main challenge the new government faces is to succeed its missi on,"
   the speaker was quoted as saying by MPs. "(The Cabinet) should be allowed
   to restore trust among the Lebanese on the political and economic levels."

   Berri also highlighted inconsistency in the United States with regard to
   Lebanese governments, and accused it of adopting double standards.

   The U.S. approved of certain issues under former Prime Minister Saad
   Hariri's Cabinet, while it vetoed the same issues under current Prime
   Minister Najib Mikati," he said without elaborating.

   (Description of Source: Beirut The Daily Star Online in English -- Website
   of the independent daily, The Daily Star; URL: http://dailystar.com.lb)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   103) Back to Top
   NATO chief confident about US Congress' Libyan stance
   "NATO Chief Confident About US Congress' Libyan Stance" -- NOW Lebanon
   Headline - NOW Lebanon
   Thursday June 23, 2011 05:20:23 GMT
   (NOW Lebanon) - NATO's chief said Wednesday he was confident members of
   the US Congress would take their global responsibility seriously in
   considering continued funding for the Libyan mission.

   "It would of course be damaging to the Libyan operation," if Congress
   followed through on a threat to cut off funds for the air war against
   Moammar Qaddafi's regime, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen
   told Le Figaro newspaper.

   "But I am confident. American lawmakers will take their global
   responsibility seriously," he said in an interview published on the French
   daily's website.

   Republicans and members of US President Barack Obama's own Democratic
   party have criticized his refusal to seek congressional authorization for
   the Libyan intervention, prompting some lawmakers to threaten to target
   war funding.

   The United States joined Britain and France in attacking Qaddafi's forces
   on March 19 in a UN-authorized mission to protect civilians as the regime
   attempted to crush an uprising.

   The United States withdrew into a supporting role when NATO took command
   of the mission on March 31, but the US military still provides the brunt
   of air-to-air refueling planes and surveillance aircraft that are critical
   to the mission. -AFP/NOW Lebanon Related Articles: Lawmakers step up
   pressure on Obama over Libya

   (Description of Source: Beirut NOW Lebanon in English -- A
   privately-funded pro-14 March coalition, anti-Syria news website; URL:
   www.nowlebanon.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained fro m the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   104) Back to Top
   Lebaneseness of Cabinet Formation Confirmed
   Lebaneseness of Cabinet Formation Confirmed -- The Daily Star Headline -
   The Daily Star Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 05:20:23 GMT
   At the same time, President Michel Sleiman received at Baabda Palace a
   Hezbollah delegation, who met to convey the greetings of Hezbollah leader
   Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah; discuss the ongoing preparations to write a draft
   of the ministerial statement; and speak on the importance of working
   collaboratively in the Cabinet - far from vengeful and malicious acts.

   It is clear, according to those close to the course of current events in
   Lebanon, that these two men complement each other in the new p olitical
   arrangement, a situation that echoes a recent statement from Deputy Prime
   Minister Samir Moqbel. The deputy's statement asserted that the new
   government is a Sleiman-Mikati-Lebanese Cabinet, in reply to attempts to
   link its formation to a regional axis, whose states and regimes don't
   appear to be in strong position from which they would be able to use
   neighboring arenas of influence to negotiate with the United States and
   its allies.

   If there are any hints at a Syrian role in the birth of the Cabinet, it
   should be pointed out that Syria is facing today two dangers which may
   prevent it from keeping up with the developments in Lebanon: the current
   foreign conspiracy carried out through the operations of some armed
   groups, and the challenge of reform, which was one of the most important
   headlines from President Assad's third speech in front of his people, the
   Arab nation and the world.

   It seems that President Sleiman, when it comes to the events in Syria,
   supports both maintaining stability and adopting demanded reforms, a
   position based on his awareness of the dangers of walking in the wake of
   regime change in Damascus, including the implications it could have on the
   domestic scene, especially the fragile security situation which threatens
   to turn at any moment into an arena for the exchange of fire between
   international and regional players.

   A survey of departments of the presidential palace to assess the state of
   communications with the Syrian leadership suggests that Sleiman will not
   soon pay a visit to the Syrian president in Damascus unless it is
   necessary. It was also noted that his previous visits happened suddenly,
   sometimes even without the knowledge of some advisers, not for lack of
   trust but in order to avoid its exploitation in the local media market,
   which is always ready to fabricate analyses and speculation to serve
   narrow political interests.

   Official political sources said that a phone call be tween Sleiman and
   Assad took place two days ago, during which the leaders held a
   comprehensive discussion of developments in the past weeks and months
   concerning Cabinet formation. In the discussions, it became apparent that
   they held similar views and were in agreement over the dangers posed by
   Lebanon remaining in a political vacuum. They also discussed the
   importance of what had been reached through Sleiman and Mikati's efforts,
   which added to the initiative of Speaker Nabih Berri who gave up a Shiite
   seat to "gain all of Lebanon."

   These sources also revealed that coordination is continuous between the
   two countries on the highest levels in ordinary as well as exceptional
   circumstances, in order to reinforce an atmosphere of mutual trust and
   ensure that the leadership of the two countries is moving forward with
   prudence to implement policies to reinforce their steadfastness, their
   sovereignty and their independence from foreign conspiracies, from
   whicheve r direction they come.

   (Description of Source: Beirut The Daily Star Online in English -- Website
   of the independent daily, The Daily Star; URL: http://dailystar.com.lb)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   105) Back to Top
   Russian Support, PRC 'Presence' in South China Sea Help Safeguard Rights
   To request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735; or email: oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Wen
   Wei Po Online
   Friday June 24, 2011 02:36:10 GMT
   (Description of Source: Hong Kong Wen Wei Po Online in Chinese -- Website
   of PRC-owned daily newspaper with a very small circulation; ranked low in
   "credibility" in Hong Kong opinion surveys due to strong pro-Beijing bias;
   has good access to PRC sources; URL:
   http://www.wenweipo.com)Attachments:wwp0622b.pdf

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   106) Back to Top
   South China Sea Issue Challenges Sino-US Strategic, Economic Dialogue
   To request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735; or email: oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Wen
   Wei Po Online
   Friday June 24, 2011 02:36:13 GMT
   (Description of Source: Hong Kong Wen Wei Po Online in Chinese -- Website
   of PRC-owned daily newspaper with a very small circulation; ranked low in
   "credibility" in Hong Kong opinion surveys due to strong pro-Beijing bias;
   has good access to PRC sources; URL:
   http://www.wenweipo.com)Attachments:wwp0623e.pdf

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   107) Back to Top
   Southeast Asia Chinese-Language Media Reporting on PRC 23 Jun 11
   The following lists selected reports on China from Southeast Asian
   Chinese-language media on 23 June. To request additional processing,
   please contact OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735; or fax (703)
   613-5735. - Southeast Asia-China -- OSC Summary
   Thursday June 23, 2011 21:15:08 GMT&lt;/ div&gt;
   (Jakarta Guo Ji Ri Bao (Electronic Edition) in Chinese -- Electronic
   edition of a pro-PRC Chinese-language newspaper with the largest
   circulation in Indonesia. Owned by businessman Ted Sioeng (Xiong De Long)
   who was accused by the US Senate in 1997 of seeking to influence US
   elections at China's behest through campaign contributions. Carries news
   and articles from Xinhua, Zhongguo Xinwen She, and other Chinese media
   outlets, and reports extensively on bilateral activities between China and
   local Chinese in Indonesia. Distributes to readers free copies of Renmin
   Ribao and Shenzen Daily from the PRC, Wen Hui Bao and Xiang Kang Ri Bao
   from Hong Kong, and Guo Xin Ri Bao from Indonesia; URL:

   http://www.guojiribao.com/ http://www.guojiribao.com/ ) 2. Report by Ai
   Lun: "China Foreign Trade Center, ICBC Sign Agreement at Launching
   Ceremony of 110th Canton Fair"

   The launching ceremony of the 110th China Import an d Export Fair (Canton
   Fair) was held in Jakarta on 22 June. The China Foreign Trade Center and
   the Indonesia China Business Council (ICBC) signed an agreement during the
   ceremony. Leaders of the two organizations, including vice director of the
   directors' board office of the China Foreign Trade Center, Chen Qiuru, and
   Ali Husen, executive chairman of ICBC. Economic and commercial councilor
   of the Chinese Embassy in Indonesia, Zhou Hui, also attended and spoke at
   the ceremony. (720 words)

   (Jakarta Guo Ji Ri Bao (Electronic Edition) in Chinese) Malaysia 3.
   Commentary by Xia Taining: "One Year After Currency Reforms"

   The author cautions China to stay vigilant to the recent continuous drop
   of the Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets. He says that technically, it
   is impossible for international hedge funds to short-sell renminbi when
   China has not opened its capital account and when the currency is not yet
   permitted for free exchange. Even so, he says China must not underestimate
   the ability of hedge funds in stirring up the stock markets and the
   economies of China and Hong Kong. (700 words)

   (Petaling Jaya Sin Chew Daily in Chinese -- Daily with the highest
   circulation in Malaysia. Per Audit Bureau of Circulations data, Sin Chew
   has a circulation of 357,163. Provides broad coverage of domestic
   political issues. Sin Chew came under the control of timber tycoon Tiong
   Hiew King in 1988.) 4. Unattributed report: "International Trade Minister:
   China Emerges as Malaysia's Largest Trade Partner, US Strength Remains
   Significant"

   Malaysian Minister of International Trade and Industry Mustapha Mohamad
   said that China has emerged as the largest trade partner of Malaysia. Even
   so, he stressed that the United States remains significant to Malaysia. He
   said that from January to April 2011, Malaysia received up to 90 billion
   Malaysian ringgit ($29.6 billion) of foreign investment, out of which 1.7
   billion ringgit ($56 0 million) came from the United States, while the
   investment from China amounted to more than 900 million ringgit ($296
   million). He made his comments at the groundbreaking ceremony of a new
   production plant of the US-based National Instruments in Penang on 22
   June. (580 words)

   (Petaling Jaya Sin Chew Daily in Chinese) 5. Unattributed report:
   "Malaysia-China Investment Fair in September Expected To Attract 1,000
   Participants"

   The Malaysia-China Trade and Investment International Conference,
   scheduled for 10 September, is expected to attract 1,000 elites from the
   commerce and industry sectors of China and ASEAN countries. The event is
   organized by the Malaysia-China Chamber of Commerce (MCCC). Vice
   Presidents of MCCC Kerk Loong Sing and Liew Choon Kong called on Oriental
   Daily on 22 June and briefed the daily about the progress of organizing
   the event. (560 words)

   (Kuala Lumpur Oriental Daily News in Chinese -- One of the few remaining
   Chinese d ailies not under control of timber tycoon Tiong Hiew King.
   Provides independent views on domestic political issues and has emerged as
   one of the strongest critics of the government. Per Audit Bureau of
   Circulations data, Oriental Daily News has a circulation of 102,802.)
   Singapore 6. Commentary by Ma Yahua: "China's Entry Into Africa and
   Western Countries' Strategic Anxiety"

   The commentary says that China's entry into Africa has affected the
   strategic interests of the West, especially the United States. The author
   says US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has recently cautioned African
   countries against "new colonialism" when they accept investment from China
   and that this statement subtly reflects the anxiety of the West in
   relation to this development. The author predicts that it is very likely
   the West will take certain unfriendly actions against Chinese interests in
   Africa, but since the entry into Africa is an important part of China's
   peacef ul emergence, China would not back off because of external threats.
   Thus, the author expects there will be a tug of war between China and the
   West over Africa. (2,320 words)

   (Singapore Lianhe Zaobao Online in Chinese -- Website of the leading
   Chinese newspaper in Singapore; URL:

   http://www.zaobao.com.sg/ http://www.zaobao.com.sg )

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   Commerce.

   108) Back to Top
   1st LD: G20 Agricultural Meeting Adopts Action Plan on Food Security,
   Price Volatility
   Xinhua: "1st LD: G20 Agricultural Meeting Adopts Action Plan on Food
   Security, Price Volatility" - Xinhua
   Thursday June 23, 2011 12:43:25 GMT
   PARIS, June 23 (Xinhua) -- Agricultural ministers of the 20 most
   influential economies approved Thursday a common action plan to deal with
   food security and the volatility of agricultural market, notable the food
   prices, said Bruno Le Maire, agricultural minister of the G20 presidency
   -- France.

   "We, the G20 agricultural ministers, meet today to address the issue of
   food price volatility with the ultimate objective to improve food security
   and agree on an 'Action plan on food price volatility and agriculture'
   that will be submitted o our leaders at their summit in November 2011,"
   said the ministerial declaration issued during the conference.The United
   States and China also confirmed the common stance in their statements
   obtained by Xinhua before the conference."The agreement on the Action Plan
   sent a clear signal that G20 would attach very high importance to farming
   and foodstuff production, establish an internati onal agricultural market
   information system, promote coordination in international agricultural
   policies and tighten the market regulation," Chinese delegation said in a
   statement.The ministers also agreed to launch an International Research
   Initiative for Wheat Improvement to help coordination among nations, and
   agreed on the "groundwork" for a global information system on agricultural
   market, said the U.S.delegation in a statement.(Description of Source:
   Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for
   English-language audiences (New China News Agency))

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   109) Back to Top
   Reported Retired General's Remark Betrays Taiwan ese People: Ma
   Corrected version: Replacing Subject - Central News Agency
   Thursday June 23, 2011 11:59:40 GMT
   (Description of Source: Taipei Central News Agency in English -- "Central
   News Agency (CNA)," Taiwan's major state-run press agency; generally
   favors ruling administration in its coverage of domestic and international
   affairs; URL: http://www.cna.com.tw)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   110) Back to Top
   Vietnam, US To Hold Joint Naval Exercises Amid SCS Tensions
   AFP Report: "Vietnam Says To Hold Joint Naval Drill With US" - AFP
   Thursday June 23, 2011 10:49:09 GMT
   Vietnam and the United States are to hold joint naval exercises, Hanoi
   said on Thursday as regional tensions simmer over territorial claims in
   the South China Sea.

   "The coming joint exercise between the Vietnamese and US navies is an
   annual event," foreign ministry spokeswoman Nguyen Phuong Nga told
   reporters.

   She did not give a date for the training but said it would "promote
   relations between the two navies, carry out humanitarian activities and
   exchange concerning professional matters, as well as search and rescue
   operations."

   Former wartime enemies the US and Vietnam normalised relations in 1995 and
   have been rapidly building relations across a wide range of areas -- in
   part due to a spike in tensions between Beijing and Hanoi.

   US Navy ships have occasionally visited Vietnam in recent years.

   Tensions between China and other claimants to strategically important
   waters in the South China Sea -- home to two potentially oil-rich
   archipelagoes, the Paracels and the Spratlys -- have escalated in recent
   weeks.

   Since late May Vietnam has twice accused China of violating its
   200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone and interfering with oil survey
   ships.

   Nga said Vietnam was not aware of any further incidents, and reiterated
   the country's resolve to settle disputes "through peaceful means based on
   international law".

   Chinese state media said Thursday that China and Vietnam conducted two
   days of joint naval patrols earlier this week in the Gulf of Tonkin as
   part of an annual plan of "friendly exchanges" between the two militaries.

   On Wednesday China reportedly warned the United States to stay out of the
   maritime spat.

   Vice foreign minister Cui Tiankai said neighbouring countries, including
   Vietnam, were responsible for recent incidents in the disput ed waters and
   dismissed calls for Washington to play a greater role in resolving
   tensions.

   "I believe some countries now are playing with fire. And I hope the US
   won't be burned by this fire," Cui was quoted by the Wall Street Journal
   as saying.

   it/je

   (Description of Source: Hong Kong AFP in English -- Hong Kong service of
   the independent French press agency Agence France-Presse)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   111) Back to Top
   Taiwan Political Issues 22 June 2011 - Taiwan -- OSC Summary
   Thursday June 23, 2011 09:46:02 GMT
   -- According to this Chung-yang T'ung- hsun-she (Central News Agency, CNA)
   report by Tseng I-hsuan, when commenting on the case where a Taiwanese
   fishing boat captain was killed in a crossfire between the US Navy and
   Somali pirates, Minister of Foreign Affairs Timothy Yang said on 22 June
   that MOFA's representative office in Washington has been communicating
   with high level US officials, including State Department, Department of
   Defense, and even national security officials. Yang said the US side
   understands how important the case is to Taiwan. According to the report,
   Yang presided over the swearing-in ceremony of Taipei's representative to
   Italy Lai Chien-chung and Wu Chin-mu, director general of the MOFA's
   Department of Central and South American Affairs, and made the remarks
   when talking to reporters.

   http://www.cna.com.tw/ShowNews/Detail.aspx?pNewsID=201106220088&amp;amp;pType1=PD&amp;amp;pType0=aIPL&amp;amp;pTypeSel=&amp;amp;pPNo=2
   http://www.cna.com.tw/ShowNews/Detail.aspx?pNewsID=201106220088&amp;a
   mp;pType1=PD&amp;amp;pType0=aIPL&amp;amp;pTypeSel=&amp;amp;pPNo=2 "Magazine Report
   Suspects Government Subsidizes Temple Activities To Win Votes; Premier Wu
   Says Unfair"

   -- According to this Chung-yang T'ung-hsun-she (Central News Agency, CNA)
   report by Yang Shu-min, a report in the Next magazine says the Ministry of
   the Interior has been subsidizing temple activities, and the magazine
   suspected that the government made the move to win over votes from
   religious groups. Commenting on the magazine report, Premier Wu Den-yih
   said on 22 June that the allegation was unfair. Wu said the subsidies were
   for temple cultural activities, stressing that pilgrimage activities at
   Chen-lan Temple in Tachia, Taichung are important part of Taiwanese
   culture. According to Wu, the central government's fund accounts only a
   small portion of the cost of the activities.

   http://www.cna.com.tw/ShowNews/Detail.aspx?pNewsID=201106220082&amp;amp;pType1=PD&amp;amp;pType0=aIPL&amp;
   ;amp;pTypeSel=&amp;amp;pPNo=2
   http://www.cna.com.tw/ShowNews/Detail.aspx?pNewsID=201106220082&amp;amp;pType1=PD&amp;amp;pType0=aIPL&amp;amp;pTypeSel=&amp;amp;pPNo=2
   "Wu Nai-jen Brings Together Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)
   Heavyweights"

   -- According to this unattributed Chung-yang T'ung-hsun-she (Central News
   Agency, CNA) report, DPP Chairman Tsai Ing-wen announced at a press
   conference the party's presidential and legislative election campaign
   framework on 22 June, and Tsai was accompanied by a number of DPP
   heavyweights, including former premiers Su Tseng-chang, Frank Hsieh, and
   Yu Shyi-kun. The report claims that DPP campaign headquarters director
   general Wu Nai-jen was the one who brought the heavyweights together. Wu
   said he talked to Su Tseng-chang on 16 June for about one hour and Su
   agreed immediately to take over chairman of the campaign headquarters.
   According to Wu, Tsai Ing-wen will meet former vice president Annette Lu
   to invite Lu to the c ampaign team after Lu returns from Finland. Wu also
   indicated that former DPP chairman Hsu Hsin-liang will also join the
   campaign team.

   http://news.chinatimes.com/politics/130502/132011062201168.html
   http://news.chinatimes.com/politics/130502/132011062201168.html "Frank
   Hsieh Says Lu, Yu, Su, Hsieh All Recommended To Be Legislator-at-large"

   -- According to this CNA report by Lin Hsu-shen, as the DPP is to announce
   the party's legislator-at-large candidates on 29 June, former premier
   Frank Hsieh said 21 June that he and former premiers Su Tseng-chang, Yu
   Shyi-kun and former vice president Annette Lu are on a recommended list
   but they did not campaign for the recommendation. Commenting on the
   controversy over a leaked list of the nominations, Hsieh said he believed
   the leaked list was a fake. The report claims that DPP Chairman Tsai
   Ing-wen said the party has not made a final decision of the nominations.

   http://www.cna.com.tw/ShowNews/Detail.aspx
   ?pNewsID=201106210301&amp;amp;pType1=PD&amp;amp;pType0=aIPL&amp;amp;pTypeSel=&amp;amp;pPNo=2
   http://www.cna.com.tw/ShowNews/Detail.aspx?pNewsID=201106210301&amp;amp;pType1=PD&amp;amp;pType0=aIPL&amp;amp;pTypeSel=&amp;amp;pPNo=2
   "Legislators Call for Deployment of Troops in South China Sea; High Level
   Officials Have Reservations"

   -- According to this Chung-kuo Shih-pao report by Cheng Min-sheng, Wu
   Ming-chieh, and Chou Pei-fen, a number of ruling and opposition
   legislators have urged the Ministry of National Defense to send combat
   troops to the Dongsha Islands and Taiping Island to reaffirm Taiwan's
   sovereignty over the islands. The report claims that the legislators
   believed that this would give the nation more bargaining chips and the
   right to speak in negotiations. It is reported that high level national
   security officials have assessed the situation and believed that Taipei
   should not make moves that would cause neighboring countries to think
   Taiwan is st rengthening military action in the area. The report claims
   that a source said it is unlikely that China would try to take the Taiping
   Island because cross-Strait tension has eased, but if Taiwan redeploys
   troops to the island it would be like adding fuel to the fire.

   http://news.chinatimes.com/politics/50206455/112011062200084.html
   http://news.chinatimes.com/politics/50206455/112011062200084.html

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   112) Back to Top
   Taiwan Opinion 23 Jun 11 - Taiwan -- OSC Summary
   Thursday June 23, 2011 06:48:18 GMT
   - According to an article in Chung-kuo Shih-pao by former Chung-kuo
   Shih-pao director Wang Chien-chuang, in the wake of Ma Ing-jeou's
   announcement of a Ma Ying-jeou-Wu Tung-yi ticket, DPP presidential
   candidate Tsai Ing-wen questioned if Ma is not confident so he has to
   announce his running mate so early. This kind of criticism does not make
   any sense, as making the decision in an earlier or later date has nothing
   to do with confidence. What is worse is that Tsai often used rhetoric
   skills to cover up the hollowness of her words. Recently, she said that
   the DPP is willing to sit down with China to talk about a long-standing
   exchange framework. She also said that cross-Strait relationship should be
   handled professionally instead of politically. These words are also empty
   and incomprehensible. Tsai has been having a smooth political career by
   exercising her rhetorical skills. However, in a meeting held recently
   between her and Su Chen-chang, she had actually been embarrassed when Su
   kept asking her "then?" and "you me an?" In the upcoming months, there
   will be more Su Chen-changs asking her similar questions. A presidential
   candidate cannot always hide herself in the cloud, the article says.
   (Taipei Chung-Kuo Shih-Pao (Internet Version-WWW) in Chinese -- Internet
   version of daily newspaper provides good coverage of political affairs,
   generally takes a pro-unification stance. Root URL as of filing time:

   http://www.chinatimes.com.tw/ http://www.chinatimes.com.tw ) "Both Parties
   Need Moon-Landing Worriers"

   - According to an article by Tsen-an in Chung-kuo Shih-pao, KMT Culture
   and Publicity Committee Chairman Su Chun-pin was drafted to race against
   Hsu Tien-tsai, former Tainan City mayor, in the fourth electoral precinct
   of Tainan, and Hsu's response was that it is quite impossible for Su to
   win the election and that a moon landing may even be an easier task for
   Su. The fourth electoral precinct of Tainan is a green stronghold, and it
   is a nice move to make Su Ch un-pin to engage in a race there. However, in
   Taoyuan, the KMT still nominated Liao Cheng-ching, a person with a
   dishonorable electoral record. "Is the KMT so short of talents that it has
   no one else to nominate?" the article asks. (Chung-kuo Shih-pao) "Unity of
   DPP Heavyweights Questionable"

   - According to an article in Lien-ho Pao by a teacher named Tsai Yuan, DPP
   heavyweights showed solidarity in a gathering, and each of them got a big
   title in Tsai Ing-wen's election team. All the titles are big, and it is
   confusing who would be the real person in command. In the meeting, when
   Frank Hsieh spoke, Tsai Ing-wen looked at him smilingly. However, when Su
   Chen-chang was speaking, Tsai lowered her head. Whether DPP heavyweights
   are really united remains a big question. (Taipei Lien-ho Pao (Internet
   Version-WWW) in Chinese - Website of a leading daily newspaper which
   consistently favors pan-blue politicians and issues. Root URL as of filing
   time:
   http://www.udnnews.com.tw/ http://www.udnnews.com.tw ) "Taiwan Plays Key
   Role in South Sea Issue"

   - According to an article by Yun Cheng in Tzu-yu Shih-pao, China declared
   last year that South Sea concerns its core interests. By saying so, China
   has not only tried to occupy energy resources, it was also securing its
   energy resource transportation line. For the United States, the South Sea
   is important in view of its global strategic deployment. If China owns all
   of the sovereignty over the South Sea, the command of the US Seventh Fleet
   would have to be split into two. In late June, more than 10 PLA military
   ships exercised in the South Sea and Taiwan's Foreign Affairs Minister
   told AIT that "our patience is limited." The situation is quite rare.
   Recently, Xinhua and Wen Wei Po carrie d an article entitled
   "understanding Deng Xiaoping's strategic thinking over ocean-related
   disputes," and it is obvious that Beijing is organizing its poli tical and
   military stance toward the South Sea issue. The above-mentioned article
   also says that the Ma Ying-jeou regime has proffered a possibility for
   further cooperation in the South Sea issue, and the article called on all
   the Chinese people, including Taiwan compatriots, to unite and share a
   bitter hatred of the enemy. (Taipei Tzu-yu Shih-pao -- Iernet version of
   widely read Taiwan daily which supports Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)
   position and often exhibits a pro-independence bias, especially in its
   editorial and other opinion pieces. Root URL as of filing time:

   http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/ http://www.libertytimes.com.tw )
   "'Assassin' Not Guarantee for Electoral Victory"

   - According to an article in Tzu-yu Shih-pao by a medicine salesman named
   Tsai Ming-tsan, in the face of elections, the KMT is taking "assassin" as
   a solution. Su Chun-pin is Ma Ying-jeou's favorite man, and he is sent to
   run for a legislator in Tainan. By doi ng so, Ma Ying-jeou pretends that
   he cares about Tainan. Su Chun-pin declared that he lived in Tainan six
   years while he was a student. This kind of words is a typical electoral
   language and it cannot move Tainan people. The Ma regime has been
   neglecting the south, but it is now trying to depend on a political star
   to expand its influence in Tainan. Tainan people's wisdom should not have
   been thus underestimated. (Tzu-yu Shih-pao)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   113) Back to Top
   NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO 163 -- Foreign Tips (4 of 5)
   Yonhap headline: "NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 163 (June 23, 2011)" - Yonhap
   Thursday June 23, 20 11 05:19:20 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   114) Back to Top
   Malaysia Chinese Press 23 Jun 11
   The following lists selected reports,editorial, and commntaries carried in
   Malaysia's Chinese press on 23 Jun. To request additional processing,
   contact the OSC Customer Center at (800) 205-8615 or
   OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Malaysia -- OSC Summary
   Thursday June 23, 2011 05:19:22 GMT
   2. Editorial:"Reflection on Downfa ll of Thai Democratic Political
   Culture." The editorial says that with the approach of a general election
   in Thailand, the so called involvement of "mafia" or "money politics" in
   Thailand has led to the downfall of the democratic Thai political culture.
   (1,200 words)

   Petaling Jaya Nanyang Siang Pau in Chinese -- One of Malaysia's oldest
   Chinese dailies. Provides wide coverage of both domestic and international
   news. Per Audit Bureau of Circulations data, Nanyang Siang Pau has a
   circulation of 114,049. It was acquired by timber tycoon Tiong Hiew King
   in 2007. Prior to 2007 it was owned by the ruling coalition component
   party Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA).

   3. A commentary by Zheng Yong Nian: "China Amidst New Global Economic
   Framework. Part One" This commentary by an academic from Singapore
   discusses the economic opportunities available to China in the new global
   economic framework and environment. The commentary says although the
   United States is still the world top economic body, the US protectionist
   policy will continue to weaken the global economy. The commentary says
   that when the economy of the West enters a stagnant post-industrial stage,
   China can become the driving force to push the global economy ahead. (p.
   26, 1,200 words)

   4. Unattributed report: "Leading Malaysian Banker Nazir Razak: ASEAN
   Should Move Toward Single United Financial Market To Accelerate
   Efficiency." In a public address delivered at the "CEO Night", CIMB Group
   Chief Executive Datuk Nazir stressed the advantage for ASEAN moving toward
   a global financial market to accelerate its capabilities and efficiency.
   He said that if ASEAN countries can achieve the vision of financial market
   integration, they will help promote economic development and attract
   investors to the ASEAN region. The report also includes the
   question-and-answer session of Nazir's presentation. (p. A 8, 1,500 words)

   5. Unattributed report: "12 Malaysian Police Arrested for Involvement in
   Drug Trafficking Related Activities." At a press briefing, National
   Narcotics Criminal Investigation Department Director Noor Rashid Ibrahim
   said although the police involved in drug-related activities are less than
   one percent of the total police task force, the police headquarters will
   take action against these police officers to rebuild the good image of the
   police in the country. (p. A 19, 200 words)

   6. Unattributed report:"Malaysia China Chamber of Commerce (MCCC) To
   Organize International Conference on Malaysia-China Investment in
   September." This report updates the contents, theme, and invited speakers
   for the forthcoming International Malaysia-China Conference to be hosted
   by MCCC in September 2011. (p. A 8, 400 words)

   Kuala Lumpur Oriental Daily News in Chinese -- One of the few remaining
   Chinese dailies not under control of timber tycoon Tiong Hiew Ki ng.
   Provides independent views on domestic political issues and has emerged as
   one of the strongest critics of the government. Per Audit Bureau of
   Circulations data, Oriental Daily News has a circulation of 102,802.

   7. Unattributed report:"National Narcotics Criminal Investigation
   Department Director: Police Arrested More Than 5,000 Drug Trafficking
   Offenders During First Half Year of 2011." In a press meeting, National
   Narcotics Criminal Investigation Department Director Noor Rashid Ibrahim
   disclosed that from January to June, the police arrested a total of 7,935
   drug-related criminals. Among them, 5,683 are drug traffickers and
   drug-making experts. (p. A 17, 600 words)

   8. A commentary by Xie Shi Jian:"Pan Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) Plans
   To Play "Turkey Card" To Reform Party." This commentary discusses PAS'
   political development in recent years especially after the recently held
   party election. The commentary observes that the present PAS leadership
   has a tendency to emulate Turkey's "Erdogan" moderate political leadership
   style to find a niche in the next general election. (p. A 38, 2,000 words)

   China Press in Chinese -- Carries general domestic and political news.
   Along with sister publication Nanyang Siang Pau, it came under timber
   tycoon Tiong Hiew King's media empire in 2007. Per Audit Bureau of
   Circulations data, China Press has a circulation of 231,539.Bureau of
   Circulations data, Oriental Daily News has a circulation of 102,802.

   9. A commentary by Yu Zhi: "Russia Seizes Opportunity To Expand Influence
   in South East Asia." The commentary says the military deployment in the
   South China Sea by the United States, China, and ASEAN countries has given
   a timely opportunity to Russia to get involved in the affairs in the South
   East Asian region in the coming days. (650 words)

   Penang Kwong Wah Jit Poh in Chinese -- Oldest Chinese daily in Malaysia.
   Focuses mainly on news from northern peninsular Malaysia. Along with
   Oriental Daily News it is one of the few Chinese dailies not under timber
   tycoon Tiong Hiew King's control. Per Audit Bureau of Circulations data,
   Kwong Wah Jit Poh has a circulation of 71,350.

   Negative Selection Petaling Jaya Malaysiakini in Chinese --
   Chinese-language version of the leading alternative online news portal
   owned by Mkini Dotcom. Offers independent news and views, focusing mainly
   on political issues. Often features exclusive interviews with leading
   opposition and government figures. Exact readership unknown; URL:

   http://www.malaysiakini.com/ http://www.malaysiakini.com

   Negative Selection

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   115) Back to Top
   President Aquino Calls On China To Adhere to UN Convention on Laws of Sea
   Report by Norman Bordadora with a report from Reuters: "Aquino to China:
   Adhere to UN Pact" - INQUIRER.net
   Thursday June 23, 2011 05:10:13 GMT
   President Benigno Aquino III on Wednesday said China should adhere to the
   UN Convention on the Laws of the Sea (Unclos) that provides for Philippine
   sovereignty over the Recto Bank located well within the Philippines'
   exclusive economic zone.

   In an interview with reporters in a military camp in Cotabato City, Mr.
   Aquino also said China should explain to the international community the
   validity of its claim over the isle just west of Palawan, which Beijing
   calls Reed Bank.

   The President called on the United Nations, United States and all other
   countries that use the West Philippine Se a to insist that concerned
   states adhere to international laws that in this case, he says, means the
   Unclos.

   "More than anything else, the issue here is all claimants keep on saying
   that let us adhere to international law and for the nth time the
   international law involved is (Unclos)," he said.

   He said the Unclos, adopted by countries including China in 1982, provides
   for an exclusive economic zone 320 kilometers (200 nautical miles) from a
   country's continental shelf.

   Noting that the Recto Bank is just 130 km from Palawan, Mr. Aquino said
   the area is beyond China's economic zone because it is 900 km from Hunan
   Island which is China's closest point.

   "We expect China to adhere to that and with America backing us up and
   other Asean claimants, we expect that the UN, America and other interested
   parties, who have to traverse this body of water will insist on their
   freedom of navigation and adherence to Unclos."

   China tells US to keep off

   But in Beijing, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai urged the United
   States on Wednesday to leave the West Philippine Sea dispute to the
   claimant states, saying that the US involvement may make the situation
   worse.

   Cui's comments to reporters were China's most direct warning to Washington
   in recent weeks. It came amid the biggest flare-up in regional tensions in
   years over competing maritime sovereignty claims in the disputed
   territory, an area believed to be rich in oil and gas.

   China has become more assertive in its claim to the waters, parts of which
   are also claimed by the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam.

   "The United States is not a claimant state to the dispute in the South
   China Sea and so it's better for the United States to leave the dispute to
   be sorted out between claimant states," Cui said at a briefing ahead of
   the first round of consultations on Asia-Pacific affairs in Hawaii on
   Saturda y.

   Wrong to cave in

   The President defended the Philippines' assertion of its sovereignty over
   its territory in the West Philippine Sea, saying it would be wrong to cave
   in to China's claims just because it's a bigger country.

   "We've already filed many protests. They've already filed protests against
   us. What's important here is ... let them defend themselves in the
   international fora as to where the validity of their claim lies in," he
   said.

   "For us, just to move forward, we may not agree on the disputed
   territories like, for instance, the Spratlys. But we didn't have any
   dispute over the Reed Bank. We've been there since the 1970s. It seems
   they came up with their nine-dash theory only in late 2000," he added.

   China's relatively new nine-dash theory refers to its map that indicates
   its sovereignty over the South China Sea, or as the Philippines would call
   it, the West Philippine Sea.

   Duty-bound

   "Why w as this area excluded (from the dispute) suddenly included?" Mr.
   Aquino said.

   "I don't think that I would be doing my duty to the people and to the
   state if (we) agree (with China) that, 'Go ahead. Take whatever you want
   because you're bigger than us.' That seems to be a wrong principle," Mr.
   Aquino said.

   "Our basis for our claim is well-founded especially under this treaty,
   ratified by so many countries including China."

   Mr. Aquino made the remarks aft er Sen. John McCain called on Washington
   to extend military and political support to concerned members of the
   Association of Southeast Asian Nations to stand up to China over the
   contested territories.

   Playing with fire

   "While some American friends may want the United States to help in this
   matter, we appreciate their gesture but more often than not such gestures
   will only make things more complicated," Cui said.

   Cui and US Assistant Secretary of Sta te Kurt Campbell will cohost the
   consultations in Hawaii.

   "If the United States wants to play a role, it may counsel restraint to
   those countries that have been taking provocative action and ask them to
   be more responsible in their behavior," he said.

   "I believe the individual countries are actually playing with fire and I
   hope the fire will not be drawn to the United States."

   Not responsible

   Cui emphasized that China was not responsible for the dispute in the West
   Philippine Sea and said it was greatly concerned by frequent provocation
   by other countries.

   "We are troubled by some recent events in the South China Sea but we were
   not the party who provoked these incidents," he said.

   "If you examine the facts closely, you will recognize who are the
   countries that have occupied islands under other countries' sovereignty by
   illegal means. It was certainly not China. Who are the countries that have
   done the most to explore oil and gas resources in the region? It was
   certainly not China, he added.

   "Who are the countries that displayed force or used force against the
   fishermen of other countries? Again, it was certainly not China."

   Largest claim

   China's claim is by far the largest, forming a large U-shape over most of
   the sea's 1.7 million square kilometers, including the Spratly and Paracel
   archipelagos.

   The latest spell of tension began last month when Vietnam said Chinese
   boats had harassed a Vietnamese oil exploration ship. China said
   Vietnamese oil and gas exploration undermined its rights in the West
   Philippine Sea. Hanoi refers to the body of water as the East Sea.

   Navy ships from Vietnam and China held a two-day joint patrol in the Gulf
   of Tonkin, Vietnamese state media reported on Tuesday, in a sign that
   tension over the disputed maritime border may be easing.

   (Description of Source: Makati City INQUIRER.net in Engl ish -- Website of
   the Philippine Daily Inquirer, a privately owned daily published by
   Isagani Yambot, veteran journalist and former press attache of the
   Philippine Embassy in Saudi Arabia and the United States; widely read by
   the middle class and elite; carries balanced news stories and a mixture of
   pro- and anti-government commentaries and editorials. Its highly respected
   editorial consultant, Amando Doronila, writes an influential column. Good
   source for breaking news. Average circulation: over 250,000; URL:
   http://www.inquirer.net)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   116) Back to Top
   Czech Commentary Criticizes 'Uncoordinated' Formation of Security Policy
   Commentary by Milos Ba laban: "When Cart Is Put Before Horse" - Pravo
   Thursday June 23, 2011 10:34:17 GMT
   Apart from anything else, this debate is taking place in a slightly
   uncoordinated way. The new Security Strategy of the Czech Republic, from
   which the conception of foreign policy and also the priorities for
   ensuring the defense of the county and the development of the army should
   be derived, has not yet been completed and approved. However, regardless
   of this the Defense Ministry has prepared the White Paper on Defense and
   had it approved by the government. To put it simply, the cart is being put
   before the horse.

   However, the problem is not a question of whether more or less is written
   about NATO or the EU in this place or that. Rather than a debate about two
   paragraphs for NATO, it would perhaps be more useful for Minister Vondra
   to hold negotiations with Foreign Minister Karel Sch warzenberg, the
   chairman of TOP 09 (Tradition, Responsibility, and Prosperity 09), about
   whether he (Schwarzenberg) will support him (Vondra) in the government on
   the matter of the protection of our army from collapse.

   Because of "blunt" accounting cuts this is the way it (the army) looks:
   aging (average age 38), decreasing in size (in June 2011 more than 4,200
   troop posts were unfilled at the Defense Ministry), and deprived of their
   benefits compensating for tough service (the taxation of the service
   contribution, the fall in the accommodation allowance, the abolition of
   the supplementary payment for relocation, and so on). It is equipped with
   antiquated, aging, or even non-functioning new technology (CASA planes
   incapable of deployment in Afghanistan and instead of that transporting
   horses to Mongolia). Soldiers are drowning in uncertainty and many of them
   are thinking about leaving the army. Some of them because they have
   already served their time, and others because it does not pay them to
   serve. Can we, for instance, rule out that there will not be enough
   soldiers for foreign missions?

   I would not even be surprised if some people (even in the government) were
   hatching a plan for how to "outsource" the defense of the country to a
   private army or a security service...

   We can hardly enthuse for NATO in the foreign policy concept, if we are
   not going to be capable of offering it some "added value." The same thing
   also applies for the EU's common defense and security policy. And if the
   defense minister were to have some talks with the foreign minister, then
   they could also talk about some important matters. For instance, about the
   consequences to be drawn from the approaching end of NATO's Afghan mission
   in 2014. Or about how to learn from the inglorious end of the attempt to
   establish a "special relationship" with the United States through missile
   defense. Or about how to st rengthen regional security and defense
   cooperation, for instance within the framework of Visegrad (Visegrad Four:
   Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland). More topics could certainly be
   found, but this should be enough for a first meeting. Then, the problems
   mentioned should be discussed in parliament with the awareness that this
   is an issue of the country's security for many years to come. However, is
   there going to be a will for this in the government?

   (Description of Source: Prague Pravo in Czech -- independent, center-left
   daily with good access to social democratic policy makers; known as the
   best-informed daily; has a loyal leftist readership base that is usually
   50 years or older and less affluent; the only national center-left
   daily)Attachments:ATTH4YZ5.rtf

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTI S, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   117) Back to Top
   Czech Commentary Argues Special Relationship With United States 'Not Good
   Idea'
   Commentary by Jan Jires, director of Center for Transatlantic Relations at
   CEVRO Institute: "Special Relationship With United States? Forget It" -
   Lidovky.cz
   Thursday June 23, 2011 10:49:38 GMT
   Czechs who supported the inclusion of their country in Bush's original
   missile defense project (the author of this text was among them) were
   driven by several motives. Firstly, this was a case of seeking a new "big
   story" of Czech-American relations that would have become the successor to
   the completion of the process of NATO enlargement and would have ensured
   for the Czech Republic a continuation of its -- to a certain extent --
   prominent standin g in Washington foreign policy circles. The Czech
   pro-Atlantic elite started to play with the notion of building exclusive
   bilateral relations with the United States along the model of the "special
   relationship" existing between the United States and Britain.

   The second motive was a lack of trust in our West European allies and in
   the reliability of NATO defense guarantees after the transatlantic split
   over Iraq. The solution to this was supposed to be to find a way in which
   to physically tie the Americans to Central European security -- regardless
   of NATO and its allegedly unreliable European members. Paradoxically, in
   this way Czech Atlanticists (and the Polish ones even more so) themselves
   contributed to a further weakening of the cohesion of NATO.

   The third motive was -- in the case of some people a clearly articulated,
   in the case of others rather a subconscious -- attempt to complete the
   transformation of the Czech identity into the form of a standard West
   European country. Precisely this "identity agenda," based on an attempt to
   persuade the rest of the world that our country is from the political and
   cultural point of view a normal part of the West, has been a leading
   motive of the entire Czech post-1989 foreign policy. In this respect entry
   to NATO and EU brought a certain disappointment, because even after their
   formal integration with the West post-communist countries still did not
   start to be regarded as a fully-fledged part of it. That is why close
   cooperation with the United States and the physical presence of its armed
   forces on our territory could have seemed like a further opportunity for
   confirming our Western identity. As (then) Prime Minister Topolanek
   declared, normal West European countries have American bases on their
   territories. At the same time the confirmation of our Western identity by
   means of an American military presence meant a message to an assertive
   Russia under Putin t hat we were no longer in the least a part of its
   sphere of influence.

   The early warning system as a part of the new version of the American MD
   system would evidently not have been a benefit with regard to any of these
   motives. Moreover, neither would it have fulfilled a useful function from
   the point of the view of the purpose of the entire system -- that is, the
   protection of Europe and the United States from ballistic missiles. Its
   relation to the planned NATO missile defense system would also have been
   at the least unclear. It is, therefore, logical that the Czechs refused
   the American offer. We Must Go About It Differently

   What lessons can be learned from this entire tale? First of all that a
   bilateral "special relationship" with the United States is not a good idea
   for a country the size of the Czech Republic and in its geographical
   position. An analysis by the European Council of Foreign Relations (ECFR)
   from November 2009 with an evidently ironic subtext identified 13 (!)
   European countries that have been or are convinced that their political
   and security relations with the United States have some kind of "special"
   status -- in the sense of being more pri vileged than in the case of their
   neighbors. Apart from Great Britain and the Czech Republic, among them
   are, for instance, Portugal, Sweden, and Latvia.

   The Americans have never taken this notion very seriously -- not even in
   the case of the United Kingdom, in the case of which there would be the
   greatest number of objective reasons. Europeans are realizing that a
   bilateral "special relationship" with the United States is inevitably
   unstable and its benefits doubtful. Even the British Conservatives are
   today reevaluating the tradition of the British-American special
   relationship and some of them are claiming that this is a case of a mere
   chimera, which occasionally directly harms British interests. Let us,
   then, hope that the refusal (of the US offer) on Wednesday (June 15) was
   not motivated merely by an attempt to show Obama's people that we are not
   going to be fobbed off with some small role, but also by a newly acquired
   conviction that exclusive bilateral relations with the United States in
   the security field are not an appropriate path and that the future of
   Czech-American relations is represented by the implementation of
   pro-Atlantic solutions within the multilateral framework of NATO and the
   EU. However, for our country to be able to play a positive role in this,
   it must be a stable and respected partner that knows what it wants and is
   also capable of clearly explaining this to others (including its own
   domestic public), does not make unnecessary troubles and in the end
   complies with what it has promised to do. Unfortunately, we are rather
   getting further away from this ideal.

   (Description of Source: Prague Lidovky.cz in Czech -- Website of Lidove
   Noviny, independent, center-right daily with samizdat roots; URL:
   http://www.lidovky.cz)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   118) Back to Top
   Slovak Economy Minister Plans To Terminate Provision of Investment
   Incentives
   "Economy Minister Plans To Scrap Investment Stimuli This Election Term" --
   SITA headline - SITA Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 20:52:55 GMT
   The minister specified that it is possible to replace the investment
   assistance for example by quality business environment. "A radical
   improvement of the business environment can represent a benefit for
   Slovakia, able to easily replace any investment stimuli ," thinks Miskov
   whose department is currently working on the Singapore project. After
   implementing 100 measures the project is to contribute to reducing the
   red-tape load of businesses in Slovakia.

   Miskov thinks that investment incentives are deforming the local business
   environment. However he admits that on the other hand we perceive a wider
   context of providing the investment assistance and believes that stimuli
   serve as a kind of auxiliary wheels which the country will no longer need
   after some time. He believes that Slovakia will become such attractive
   country for investors that it will not have to provide any investment
   stimuli. Miskov also said that he perceives stimuli also as reimbursement
   for the uncompleted highway network.

   Miskov introduced changes to the draft law on provision of investment
   stimuli to AmCham representatives. Parliament should pass it at the
   upcoming session. AmCham praised in the amendment the measure halving the
   sum of minim um investment in individual regions. It also gave high marks
   to the possibility to procure long-term tangible assets also from linked
   persons, the division of districts to zones according to the average
   unemployment rate, the possibility to ask for investment stimuli also for
   another investment project of the same investor and the possibility to
   draw relief on income tax for ten years instead of the current five.

   AmCham has expressed support to legislative changes that will represent
   continuation of the trend of transparency and effectiveness of the
   provision of investment stimuli in Slovakia. "I think that changes to
   providing investment stimuli are perceived positively at 80 percent.
   However there are further proposals that would mean a progress in the
   amendment according to AmCham," said Miskov.

   (Description of Source: Bratislava SITA Online in English -- Website of
   privately owned press agency; URL: http://www.sita.sk)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   119) Back to Top
   Mexico, Central America To Present Regional Plan vs. Organized Crime
   Report by Mayolo Lopez: "Regional Plan Against Crime in Central America
   Prepared" - REFORMA.com
   Thursday June 23, 2011 16:27:27 GMT
   "We will present the plans for security and the fight against crime drawn
   up at Central American level, which are the fruit of joint work carried
   out in recent months.

   "It is the first time in our history that Central America has submitted a
   joint work program to confront such a major challenge," El Salvador's
   President Mauricio Funes disc losed yesterday during his visit to Mexico.

   It is also expected that the Inter American Development Bank (IDB), the
   World Bank (WB), the Central American Bank for Economic Integration
   (BCIE), the United Nations Development Program and the Organization of
   American States (OAS) will contribute funds to finance the anti-crime
   strategy.

   In addition, participants intend to present a plan for the protection of
   the human rights of migrants, at a time when criminal organizations are
   representing a growing threat.

   US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will take part at the Summit, which
   will be attended by at least ten presidents and representatives of some 30
   other countries.

   Participation by President Felipe Calderon will take place at a difficult
   time for his government because of the violence in Mexico that has been
   stirred up against Central American migrants by drug traffickers, coupled
   with the corruption charges faced by the National Migration Inst itute.

   Following the murder a little over a month ago of Guatemalan farmers in
   the Department of Peten, presumably by killers employed by Los Zetas,
   President Alvaro Colom let it be known that Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman,
   head of the Sinaloa Cartel, could have sought refuge in Guatemalan
   territory.

   Non-governmental organizations have charged that as a result of the war
   embarked on by the Mexican Government against drug trafficking, Los Zetas
   have settled over at least 75% of Guatemalan territory.

   Unhappy with the (inadequate) backing by the US Government for efforts to
   halt gunrunning across the common border, Calderon is to meet with Hillary
   Clinton after having charged last week in San Jose, California that the
   thousands of deaths linked to the fight against organized crime could be
   blamed on the US weapons industry.

   (Description of Source: Mexico City REFORMA.com in Spanish -- Website of
   major center-right daily owned by Grupo Reforma; URL:
   http://www.reforma.com/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   120) Back to Top
   Article Calls for 'Determined Realignment' of Pakistan's External
   Relations
   Article by Zafar Hilaly: "An alliance gone sour" - The News Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 11:58:40 GMT
   A large part of friendship is feigning, especially in the cut-throat world
   of international politics. So, US Defence Secretary Gates got it right
   when in response to a US Senator's question about how Pakistan could have
   'lied' about the presence of OBL in Abbottabad, he replied that a lot of
   countries 'lie' to each other, inc luding the US.

   Gates, a former CIA chief, must have reflected on how often America had
   resorted to lies to get out of a jam and to further its ends. Indeed, how,
   as recently as 2007, America had lied not merely to one country but the
   whole world, and not once but repeatedly, about the presence of WMDs in
   Iraq to justify its invasion. That is not to say that the Senator did not
   know about America's record of lying or to say that he was naive. The kind
   of selective amnesia he displayed is common among politicians who have a
   bone to pick or wish to score cheap points in a debate.

   Also evident was the anger that gripped the American media and some
   Senators at the news that 30 or so Pakistanis had been detained for
   questioning for passing on information to the CIA about the goings on in
   the OBL compound in Abbottabad. In an angry and incredulous tone they
   asked how Pakistan could possibly arrest anyone who helped the CIA bring
   the world's number one terrorist to jus tice. It did not seem to cross
   their minds that those detained may be traitors because they preferred to
   work for a foreign spy agency rather than their own in return for money or
   some other favour. Instead, surprise and hurt were on display and the
   feeling among American politicians that such spiteful actions by Pakistan
   were actually meant to divert attention from the involvement,
   embarrassment, and incompetence of our own spooks.

   Ambassador Haqqani tried to assuage US anger by parrying questions and
   when cornered by adopting a very conciliatory tone. Even saying that none
   of those arrested had been punished thereby implying somehow that they
   would be dealt with leniently even if found to be spying for the CIA. This
   suggested to his legion of critics here that recruiting agents for the CIA
   among our uniformed personnel and civilians is somehow acceptable when, in
   fact, it is reprehensible and illegal to suborn their loyalty. I cannot
   believe Haqqani was saying anyth ing of the sort or that "the issue would
   be resolved to the satisfaction of Pakistan's friends and its laws." The
   law surely does not reflect the wishes of either friend or foe.

   What especially raised hackles here are the ongoing attempts, subsequently
   leaked to the press by the Americans that Panetta had intervened with
   Kayani on behalf of those arrested on suspicion of being CIA informers.
   How can Panetta forget that working for a foreign spy agency is deemed
   illegal in all the countries of the world, including his own, regardless
   of the issue involved? How can it be considered legal for a national of
   one country to spy for another country? It infringes on the very concepts
   of sovereignty, nation-state, and interstate relations. Neither the
   Russians nor the Americans believed their moles were doing the legal thing
   during the Cold War when they passed on sensitive information even if the
   individuals involved personally believed they were pursuing the right
   cause.

   The logic behind this just doesn't make sense. Even more ridiculous is
   when the issue involves a person in the armed service of another country.
   By the same token, the US should be releasing its own nationals held in
   custody because they were charged with spying for a foreign country but
   who were doing the right thing as deemed by the country they were working
   for. It can start by releasing Jonathan Pollard who spied for Israel, the
   closest of American allies.

   It would have been a lot better for Leon Panetta to have waited until the
   authorities had completed their investigation and to make a discreet pitch
   for clemency for the persons in question. Washing dirty linen in public is
   silly as it puts the country in an awkward position and may indeed worsen
   matters by being perceived as provocative and demeaning. Nor has Panetta
   done much good by allegedly leaking the matter and doing it at a time when
   there is mounting tension over more important issues. Act ually, all he
   has done is to ensure that if found guilty of violating their oath of
   loyalty to their institution and the state to which they belong, the fate
   of those being held will be dire.

   The question often asked is why America behaves in an arrogant and
   insensitive manner when dealing with friends or allies. Why doesn't it
   care if it is distrusted and disliked? Why do Americans feel they must
   step on the dignity of others, including friends, only so that they can
   claim they are maintaining their own? The fact that these questions are
   repeatedly asked by its friends should bother Americans and not be treated
   like water off a duck's back.

   The time has surely come to question the importance of the American
   alliance and the temptation to hang on to it in order to benefit from the
   American largesse and in particular, the weapons we need for our defence.
   Indeed, the price tag has grown more exorbitant while our capacity to foot
   the bill in terms of reciprocity h as shrunk further. In short the
   alliance is turning out to look like a luxury we can ill afford and we
   must therefore begin to live within our means as best as we can.

   We cannot continue to believe out of sheer force of habit that what we
   have become accustomed to is what is best for us, when it is not. We must
   cease to find excuses for acting and believing in the manner we do. When
   love no longer exists in the heart, as it does not today for America, then
   the love affair is truly over. Old creeds that have shrouded policies must
   be abandoned. Putting the American connection behind us sensibly and
   deftly should now be the priority of the moment. It is worth recalling
   what George Washington had to say in his "Farewell Address":

   "The nation which indulges towards another a habitual hatred, or a
   habitual fondness, is in some degree a slave. It is a slave to animosity
   or to its affection, either of which is sufficient to lead it astray from
   its duty and its interest."

   It is absurd that the Americans should be in the business of killing and
   be killed even as they declare their wish to make peace with their
   adversary. This absurd war has truly plunged Pakistan into a civil
   conflict and effectively destroyed our chances of emerging as a strong
   united nation for another generation. And the longer we remain tethered to
   the Americans, the greater the chances of deeper ruin. The need to cut our
   losses and free ourselves from an embrace that has in any case become a
   suffocating one, therefore, is now beyond doubt. Although admittedly
   untangling ourselves from the alliance will require far more skill and
   dexterity than we have been shown to possess.

   While doing so, let us bear in mind that ending an alliance does not mean
   making an abrupt shift from friendship to enmity -- that would be an error
   and an emotional response to an existential trauma we are undergoing
   today. It only means making a determined and di ligent realignment of our
   external relations so that we have more options and more space within
   which to address our national interests. The close American connection has
   outlived whatever value it may have had in the past and it has degenerated
   into a perpetual headache and heartburn. Parting amicably when we can is
   better than parting disagreeably when we must.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The News Online in English -- Website of
   a widely read, influential English daily, member of the Jang publishing
   group. Neutral editorial policy, good coverage of domestic and
   international issues. Usually offers leading news and analysis on issues
   related to war against terrorism. Circulation estimated at 55,000; URL:
   http://www.thenews.com.pk/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   &lt; /div&gt;

   121) Back to Top
   Experts Hail Arrest of Pro-Hizb-ut-Tahrir Army Officer
   News 5: Brig Ali Khans Arrest a Great Achievement of Pakistani Army;
   Talat Masood: Unity Must For Revival of Democracy, Sohail Warriach:
   Nawazs Criticism of Army is Regrettable; Wasim Akhtar: Countrys Security
   is Important and Not Politics; Jhagra: It is Time to Save the Country. -
   Khabrain
   Thursday June 23, 2011 12:09:55 GMT
   According to senior anchorperson Sohail Warriach, Benazir Bhutto was a top
   level leader and a well-known personality at the international level, who
   aspired to continue national reconciliation process in the country. She
   wanted to work jointly with all political powers for the development and
   progress of Pakistan and due to her vision, the reconciliation policy is
   still being pursued in the country today.

   The Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) leader Wasim Akhtar said that he felt
   very sad when he listened to the statement of Nawaz Sharif and added, God
   twice granted him an opportunity to become prime minister. He further said
   that now Nawaz Sharif has another opportunity and he should work for the
   welfare of the people and learn lessons from his mistakes. The crimes have
   increased in Punjab and he should control them and provide relief to the
   masses.

   Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leader Zafar Iqbal Jhagra said that
   it is their endeavor to do politics which could improve the situation in
   the country to avoid allegations. He added the future generation would not
   forgive us if we continue blame game and suggested that such things should
   be avoided which become a cause of disgrace for the leadership of any
   party.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad Khabrain in Urdu  News, a
   sensationalist daily, published by Liberty Papers Ltd., generally critical
   of Pakistan People's Party; known for its access to government and
   military sources of information. The same group owns The Post in English,
   Naya Akhbar in Urdu and Channel 5 TV. Circulation of 30,000)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   122) Back to Top
   US, Netanyahu Said Pressured Abbas To Delay Meeting with Mish'al - West
   Bank and Gaza Strip - OSC Summary
   Thursday June 23, 2011 07:36:58 GMT
   HAMAS-run Palestinian Information Center website in Arabic at 0640 GMT
   carries a 700-word Ramallah-datelined report citing "a Palestinian media
   source, who is well-informed about the reconci liation talks in Cairo, on
   the real reasons behind the postponement of the meeting between
   Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmud Abbas and HAMAS Political
   Bureau Chief Khalid Mish'al, which was slated for 21 June in Cairo."

   The source said: "Zionist Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu contacted
   Abbas and threatened him that if the meeting with Mish'al takes place and
   the reconciliation government is formed, the privileges he and his sons
   have will be withdrawn," including stopping their VIP cards and
   withdrawing their tax money.

   The source said Abbas phoned the Egyptian intelligence and informed them
   that the United States "asked him to appoint Salam Fayyad as prime
   minister of the reconciliation government and that it will not accept
   anyone else. He added that if someone else is appointed prime minister,
   the Palestinian Government will be boycotted."

   Abbas reportedly asked the Egyptians to suspend implementation of the
   recon ciliation agreement until September and said "he was surprised that
   HAMAS agreed to sign the reconciliation document." He did not expect it to
   do so and this has put him in an embarrassing position before the US
   President. The source revealed that Abbas is now considering resigning
   from all positions he holds. Al-Bardawil: Meeting Delayed Due to US
   Pressure, Fayyad's Refusal May Advance Talks

   The Palestinian Islamic Jihad affiliated news site Filastin al-Yawm in
   Arabic at 1508 GMT publishes a Gaza-datelined report citing "leading HAMAS
   figure Salah al-Bardawil" saying that "HAMAS has learned from sources
   close to President Abbas" that the Abbas-Mish'al meeting was postponed
   because of "US pressures on President Abbas." He added: "If what the
   sources have told us about US pressures to thwart the meeting is true,
   then this represents a dangerous situation, because Palestinian desires
   will thus wager on what the United States and Israel want. If this
   information is not correct, the situation will be much more dangerous
   because then, it is moodiness that controls Palestinian interests."

   Al-Bardawil said: "Regarding the possibility that Salam Fayyad refuses to
   assume the position of the next prime minister, we hope that this
   constitutes a motive for President Abbas to meet Mish'al in order to reach
   a set of names that are satisfactory to all, whether ministers or others.
   He described President Abbas's statements that the future government is
   his government as incorrect, confirming that the future government is the
   government of the people and of national consensus." Fatah Leader:
   Abbas-Mish'al Meeting 'Within the Next Few Days'

   Bethlehem-based, independent Ma'an News Agency in Arabic at 1451 GMT
   publishes a Gaza-datelined report at on statements by Dhiyab al-Lawh,
   Fatah commissioner of national relations, that "the meeting between
   President Abbas and HAMAS's Mish 'al will be held within the next few
   days," adding that "the postponement was the result of commitments that
   came up in the president's schedule regarding his visits abroad."

   Al-Lawh affirmed that Fatah seeks national accord and stressed that it
   will commit to the implementation of whatever articles are agreed on.
   Addressing a celebration by the Democratic Front for the Liberation of
   Palestine commemorating its martyrs in Jabaliya, Al-Lawh said: "We are
   about to form the government that will include independent qualified
   people away from quotas. After fo rming the government, the committees on
   internal reconciliation, political detention, and the PLO will also be
   formed."

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   123) Back to Top
   Tehreeke-e-Insaf Announces to Stage Next 'Sit-in' at Port Qasim
   Report by Shamim Bano: "PTI to stage next sit-in at Port Qasim" - The News
   Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 11:06:34 GMT
   This was announced by Subhan Sahil, President, Labour Wing, TI, on
   Wednesday, the last day of three-day sit-in will be under the Shershah
   Bridge.

   Imran Khan, Chairman, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, addressing the
   participants through telephone warned the government that the PTI would
   block all supply routes for NATO forces in Afghanistan if the US did not
   stop Drone attacks. He also said that the PTI would also besiege the
   parliament house if the government failed to implement its own resolution
   adopted in the joint session against Drone strikes.

   He asked the rulers to adopt immediate measures to halt the US stri kes or
   else the nation will have to take the ultimate action as no more killing
   of Pakistanis could be tolerated. Urging the countrymen to stand united
   against Drone attacks, Khan said that people had already supported the PTI
   and would welcome the call to wage war against the US if announced.

   He lamented the dual role of rulers and cursed Zardari and Nawaz for
   fooling the innocent people of Pakistan. He termed the silence of
   government over the issue of Drone strikes as criminal negligence and said
   that the nation wanted to know as to when the government would implement
   its joint session resolution against Drone attacks.

   He said corrupt rulers had sold out the blood of Pakistanis for a few
   dollars. He expressed his party's firm resolve to ensure justice for every
   segment of society. Khan said that PTI would continue to fight for justice
   for the Pakistanis, adding it was the time for the nation to rise up for
   protecting its honour.

   He asked the people of the country to get ready to march to Islamabad.
   Today every person of the country wanted a change and only PTI could steer
   the country out of the crisis, he reiterated.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The News Online in English -- Website of
   a widely read, influential English daily, member of the Jang publishing
   group. Neutral editorial policy, good coverage of domestic and
   international issues. Usually offers leading news and analysis on issues
   related to war against terrorism. Circulation estimated at 55,000; URL:
   http://www.thenews.com.pk/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   124) Back to Top
   US Importers Reluctant to Buy Pakistan Mangoes Due to High Costs,
   Technicalitie s
   Report by Shahid Shah: "Procedural hurdles impede mango exports to US" -
   The News Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 10:21:39 GMT
   Animal Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), a subsidiary of United
   States Department of Agriculture (USDA), has only approved Sadex
   Corporation for the handling of Pakistani mangoes once they arrive in the
   United States. APHIS has very extensive requirements and regulations.
   These rules and regulations create a number of risks, which may affect
   negatively the prospects of importing mangoes from Pakistan business.

   Jawad said that under the Commercial General Liability Insurance, the
   customer (importer) would provide Sadex with a letter of proof of
   insurance from a national insurance provider acceptable to Sadex with its
   principle office and place of business in the United States listing Sadex
   as an additional named insured.

   "As per our findings APHIS granted eight permits to US buyers and almost
   all the importers are reluctant to take that risk," he said. "Sadex has
   very strict conditions and it is not willing to be flexible. Things are
   not looking very bright unless they change their requirements."

   If any importer brings his order individually, then only liability premium
   will cost around $6,000, the highest individual expense for whole project.

   Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) is charging Rs285 per kg, or
   approximately $3.35, for commercial shipment of mangoes from Lahore to
   Chicago, which also makes it difficult to export mangoes, said the CEO
   Harvest Tradings said.

   Jawad estimated the C and F (Cost and Freight price) at $12 per 2-kg mango
   carton (excluding other costs) will be borne by US importers. He urged
   Ministry of Food and Agriculture and Pakistan Horticulture Development and
   Export Company to look into this matter on priority basis.

   He sai d the mango export had started and they hoped to export more than
   150,000 metric tons of mangoes, most of it through sea and about 22,000
   tonnes by air.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The News Online in English -- Website of
   a widely read, influential English daily, member of the Jang publishing
   group. Neutral editorial policy, good coverage of domestic and
   international issues. Usually offers leading news and analysis on issues
   related to war against terrorism. Circulation estimated at 55,000; URL:
   http://www.thenews.com.pk/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   125) Back to Top
   Daily Calls For Cleaning Army From Elements Linked With Radical Groups
   Editorial: "House -cleaning" - The News Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 08:58:17 GMT
   Pakistan Army on suspicion of linkages to a radical group goes to show how
   real concerns about radicalisation in the army are. The said brigadier was
   arrested four days after the May 2 operation was conducted by the
   Americans which saw the death of Osama bin Laden and a seismic shift in
   our relationship with America across several fronts, military and
   civilian. The army has been quick to disavow any linkage between the
   arrest and the Bin Laden episode, and beyond being told that the arrested
   man has links with a banned organisation - Hizb-ut-Tehrir - we have been
   told nothing more. The army can probably rightly invoke the 'need to know'
   rule in this respect. The news of the arrest was published first in the
   foreign media. The army has confirmed it with minimal supporting details
   and has said that releasing any more de tails may jeopardise the ongoing
   enquiry. Be that as it may, there are questions that need asking and
   answering.

   The arrested brigadier had been under surveillance and has close relatives
   serving in sensitive organisations. He would not have suddenly made the
   connections that led to his arrest. He may have had these sympathies and
   affiliations for years. He will almost certainly not be alone in his
   leanings. The army - like every other state institution - is wider society
   in a microcosm. A radicalised society may, over time, produce radicalised
   recruits for the armed forces and influence the allegiances of serving
   officers and men. It is all very well for the director general of the
   Inter Services Public Relations to say that the army has zero tolerance
   for extremist or sectarian ideology, but the reality he and the rest of
   the army command face is that an unknown proportion of serving officers
   and men may be of a radical persuasion, and may pursue radical or extreme
   agendas from their positions in the ranks or the officer cadre. This is
   not idle speculation or scaremongering, this is hard-nosed analysis based
   on proven behavioural and societal models. As a state we face some very
   sophisticated threats, and they are internal as well as external. We may
   have rotten apples in the barrel, and the barrel, it seems, is in need of
   cleaning.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The News Online in English -- Website of
   a widely read, influential English daily, member of the Jang publishing
   group. Neutral editorial policy, good coverage of domestic and
   international issues. Usually offers leading news and analysis on issues
   related to war against terrorism. Circulation estimated at 55,000; URL:
   http://www.thenews.com.pk/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   126) Back to Top
   Lahore High Court to Hear JuD Chief's Plea Against Drone Attacks Today
   Report by staff correspondent: "LHC to hear Hafiz Saeeds plea against
   drones today" - The News Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 08:30:42 GMT
   Hafiz Saeed had filed the constitutional petition through his counsel A.K
   Dogar, praying that the federal government be directed to make public the
   information about all matters of public importance, especially the secret
   'deals' with the US in implementation of article 19-A of the constitution
   which entitles every citizen of Pakistan to have access to information.

   The petitioner requested the court to declare that the pre-emptive strikes
   by foreign countries were not permitted by international law, therefore,
   every man, woman and child had a right to claim to be protected and a
   direction in the nature of mandamus may be issued to the government. He
   said the resolution passed by a joint session of the National Assembly on
   May 14 was a voice of the people and needed to be implemented, because to
   live in dignity like a respectable independent sovereign nation, the
   petitioner and every citizen of the country could not be forced to live
   like slaves. The people having spoken through their parliament could
   invoke the provisions of article 14 of the Constitution and seek a
   declaration that, to act against the voice of the people, amounted to
   violation of their fundamental rights.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The News Online in English -- Website of
   a widely read, influential English daily, member of the Jang publishing
   group. Neutral editorial policy, good coverage of domestic and
   international issues. Usually offers leading news and analysis on issues
   related to war against terrorism. Circulation esti mated at 55,000; URL:
   http://www.thenews.com.pk/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   127) Back to Top
   Editorial Criticizes Western Powers for Terming Pakistan 'Failed State'
   Editorial: "Pak a failed State  ridiculous" - Pakistan Observer Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 07:29:50 GMT
   The situation in Pakistan is not so precarious to put it on the list of
   failed state because there is democracy and all institutions of the state
   including the judiciary, parliament and the executive are in place to take
   care of the interest of the people. From time to time there are voices
   upcoming in Pa kistan, in the West and in other circles hostile to
   Pakistan who like to suggest Pakistan as a failed state. Looking at it
   from the Pakistani side one has to realize that our leaders could have
   done better in forging unity and adjusting the diverging interests of a
   culturally vastly diverse population. The constitutional 18th amendment
   has given provincial autonomy and the devolution process is scheduled to
   be completed by the end of this month. In addition the country has vast
   agricultural land and hard working people and we can survive without
   looking at donors for assistance.

   So the propaganda that Pakistan is a failed state is part of psychological
   warfare and ridiculous. No doubt the country faces challenges like
   militancy, energy crisis, unemployment and corruption yet we are confident
   that as in the past, we would come out of them with the passage of time.
   The way forward is to cleanse the country from corrupt elements, remove
   all those officials from important positions who are more loyal to foreign
   masters than Pakistan, honestly pay our due taxes and try to stand on our
   own feet.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad Pakistan Observer Online in English --
   Website of the pro-military daily with readership of 5,000. Anti-India,
   supportive of Saudi policies, strong supporter of Pakistan's nuclear and
   missile program. Chief Editor Zahid Malik is the author of books on
   nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan; URL: http://www.pakobserver.net)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   128) Back to Top
   High Alert in Islamabad, 3 Security Cordons Set Up
   Report by Ayub Nasir: Security High Alert in Islamabad, Barricades Again
   Set Up - Jang Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 06:26:03 GMT
   (Description of Source: Rawalpindi Jang Online in Urdu -- Website of The
   War, an influential, largest circulation newspaper in Pakistan,
   circulation of 300,000. One of the moderate Urdu newspapers, pro-free
   enterprise, politically neutral, supports improvement in Pakistan-India
   relations; URL: http://www.jang.com.pk)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   129) Back to Top
   Russian-ukrainian Antonov An-70 Not Inferior to European Analog - Pogosyan
   - Interfax
   Thursday June 23, 2011 12:43:23 GMT
   LE BOURGET, France. June 23 (Interfax-AVN) - Transport planes that Russia
   will start making within the next few years will be competitive on the
   world market, United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) President Mikhail Pogosyan
   said at the Paris Air Show 2011 in Le Bourget."I think that the Antonov
   An-70 jet is a quite competitive product, which is not inferior to the
   Airbus A400. When you look at the A400, you can see that it largely
   repeats the solutions of An-70, but with a ten-year delay," he said.As for
   the resumed production of the Ilyushin Il-76 military transport plane in
   Russia, Pogosyan said, "Certainly, this is not the plane produced serially
   over 20 years ago. The plane has new avionics, new engines that meet
   modern requirements and profoundly modernized systems.""This plane will be
   much better than products of U.S. colleagues by the cost-efficiency
   criteria," Pogosyan said.Technologies of the Antonov An-124 'Ruslan' jumbo
   jet mak e further development possible. "Luckily for us, no one else in
   the world has built a similar aircraft," he noted.Interfax-950215-AACIKVRD

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   130) Back to Top
   US Increases Funding for Security, Clean Energy, Business Partnerships
   CMC Unattributed Report: "US Increases Funding for Security, Clean Energy,
   Business Partnerships" - CMC
   Thursday June 23, 2011 23:11:48 GMT
   Clinton made the announcement at a news conference following a high-level
   meeting with her Caribbean counterparts at the Ritz Carlton Hotel in this
   tourist resort town. "W e have stepped up our joint efforts to crack down
   on corruption, illegal weapons, narcotics traffickers and to create
   economic opportunities for young people," Clinton told journalists. "As we
   work to invest this new money, we need to hear from you. What is working?
   What is not working? How do we achieve our priorities? How do we finally
   adopt formal mechanisms to coordinate maritime security efforts?" she told
   ministers.

   In a joint statement, the United States and CARICOM "reaffirmed a shared
   commitment to work together through the Caribbean Basin Security
   Initiative (CBSI) partnership". Since they met in June 2010 in Bridgetown,
   the CBSI partner nations have made progress in addressing priorities in
   social programs and law enforcement identified by the partners, the
   statement said. Under the CBSI, remedial education, and jobs skills
   training have been provided for Caribbean youth, in addition to efforts at
   juvenile justice reform, anti-corru ption, border security and prison
   reform, according to the statement.

   The CBSI is also intended to professionalize police offers, help the
   region share intelligence, interdict drugs at sea and reduce local demand
   for drugs. The American secretary of state and her Caribbean counterparts
   also held talks on the vexed issue of the repatriation of criminal
   deportees to their home countries. The US and CARICOM said they looked
   forward to further progress in addressing identified priorities as they
   prepared for a second annual meeting on regional security in November in
   The Bahamas.

   Clinton and CARICOM foreign ministers also pledged their solidarity with
   the people of Haiti and their commitment to support Haiti as it rebuilds
   from the devastating January 2010 earthquake. The United States and the
   Caribbean also announced cooperation under the Energy and Climate
   Partnership of the Americas (ECPA) in the areas of energy efficiency,
   renewable energy, energy poverty, and climate change. American expertise
   in clean energy is to be provided under the Enhancing Sustainable Energy
   Solutions in the Caribbean Initiative and the Caribbean Climate Change
   Adaptation Initiative, a partnership between the University of the West
   Indies and American universities to promote research and policy-making on
   climate change adaptation.

   "They will work together toward a successful outcome at the climate
   negotiations in Durban that builds on Cancun," the statement said. With
   the Caribbean islands and coastal nations on the frontline of climate
   change, and increasingly vulnerable to intensifying natural disasters and
   rising sea levels, the Americans discussed the region's vulnerability to
   natural disasters and the need for continued cooperation with its regional
   partners. Washington also pointed to opportunities for the Caribbean to
   boost trade with its largest trading partner through the extension of the
   Caribbean Basin Trade Partnership Act (CBT PA) which held out the
   "possibility" of greater Caribbean exports through "increased production
   and productivity".

   "The United States and Caribbean countries recognized that enhancement of
   growth and economic development of the Caribbean would contribute to
   improving the international competitiveness of those countries, as well as
   to achieving their objectives of improved standard of living, job
   creation, and social stability," the joint statement said. "They,
   therefore, agree to work together to achieving these objectives." The
   foreign ministers and the US secretary of state also recognized the civic
   and cultural contributions of the Caribbean Diaspora highlighted during
   Caribbean-American Heritage month in the United States.

   They noted the Caribbean Diaspora's connections to their communities in
   the Caribbean and considered ways to engage those communities in solving
   shared problems. Last month, Clinton announced the la unch of the
   International Diaspora Engagement Alliance (IDEA), a public-private
   partnership that will provide a "platform for the private sector, public
   institutions, and Diaspora organizations to coalesce and work together on
   issues of common interest".

   Clinton announced the Caribbean IDEA Marketplace, a business competition
   platform being developed in partnership with public and private
   institutions to challenge global Caribbean Diaspora business and social
   entrepreneurs to generate innovative projects that will stimulate
   employment and economic growth in the region. Clinton met with foreign
   ministers and their representatives in the 15-nation CARICOM grouping
   together with the Dominican Republic. Although a full member of CARICOM,
   the meeting did not include Montserrat, a British dependent territory
   whose foreign policy is administered by London.

   (Description of Source: Bridgetown CMC in English -- regional news service
   run by the Caribbean Media C orporation)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   131) Back to Top
   DPRK Party Organ Urges Abolition of ROK's 'Anti-Republic Confrontational
   Policy'
   Commentary by Cho'n Chong-ho: "Why Do North-South Relations Fail To Escape
   From Catastrophe"; The author's title in the byline provided by KPM may be
   different from that which appears in hard copy. - Rodong Sinmun
   (Electronic Edition)
   Friday June 24, 2011 02:03:48 GMT
   All this while, public opinions at home and abroad have sincerely hoped
   for North-South relations to improve and for the state of tension on the
   Korean peninsula to ease. Reg rettably, however, North-South relations and
   the Korean peninsula situation have not turned out so.

   It is not that there had not been room for improvement in North-South
   relations until now. Even though the Lee Myung-bak "regime" is seeking a
   policy of confrontation, we have patiently made efforts to meet with them
   in order to engage in dialogue and cooperation and pave the road to peace
   and reunification by all means.

   Despite our sincerity and efforts, however, North-South relations did not
   easily lead to easing and improvement. Then why are North-South relations
   falling deeper into a state of catastrophe day by day instead of improving
   (?)

   Right now, the puppets are publicizing that the North-South relations have
   aggravated due to the "Ch'o'nan" ship incident and the Yo'np'yo'ng Island
   incident. In so saying, they are noising blathering that the North has to
   "apologize" for these two incidents and adopt "responsible m easures" in
   order for North-South relations to be resolved and that it is their
   "principle" that they cannot engage in dialogue and cooperation without
   these.

   As we have made clear many times, the "Ch'o'nan" ship incident and the
   Yo'np'yo'ng Island incident are extremely grave anti-Republic provocation
   incidents, which the puppets instigated based on a wicked design to
   intensify the state of confrontation and tension between the North and the
   South and harm us by force. It does not make sense for us to apologize for
   these vicious provocation incidents. In the future, too, there will not be
   the slightest change in our stand on this.

   There never had been sound dialogue between the authorities in North-South
   relations even before the "Ch'o'nan" ship incident and the Yo'np'yo'ng
   Island incident took place. This was a state of acute confrontation that
   cannot be even compared with the periods of the past "regimes." The &amp;qu
   ot;Ch'o'nan" ship incident and the Yo'np'yo'ng Island incident took place
   as an extension of this. These two incidents are not the cause but only
   the reflection and result of the aggravation in North-South relations. It
   clearly stands to reason that the issue of North-South relations cannot be
   resolved by just eliminating the phenomenon while disregarding the
   fundamental cause.

   If so, what is the fundamental cause of the North-South relations
   continuously rushing toward only catastrophe (?) In a word, it lies in the
   "North Korea policy" implemented by the Lee Myung-bak conservative
   "regime."

   The South Korean ruling forces have come up with the so-called
   "Denuclearization, Opening, 3000 Initiative" as their "North Korea
   policy," while negating the 15 June Joint Declaration and the 4 October
   Declaration and rejecting their implementation. This is a policy of
   extreme confrontation refusing to engage in neither dialogue nor
   cooperation without our "nuclear abandonment first." In accordance with
   this, the Lee Myung-bak gang has indefinitely rejected dialogue with us on
   the pretext of the nuclear issue and systematically ratcheted up a racket
   of anti-Republic confrontation in cahoots with the United States, while
   blabbering that "waiting is also a stra tegy." Refusing to improve
   North-South relations and foolishly waiting for a "sudden change in the
   situation," while opposing the implementation of the 15 June Joint
   Declaration and the 4 October Declaration, is the essence of the "waiting
   strategy." After instigating the "Ch'o'nan" ship incident and the
   Yo'np'yo'ng Island incident, the puppet gang even attached the absurd
   preconditions of the North's "apology" for the two incidents in question
   and "sincere change in attitude" to "nuclear abandonment first" and
   insists that it cannot step forward to dialogue without these.

   The "waiting strategy" of the conservative gang, which refuses to take
   action for dialogue and improving the relations between the North and the
   South without some kind of "apology" and "sincere change in attitude," is
   modeled exactly after the "strategic patience" of the United States.

   The United States is implementing a policy of "strategic patience" in
   order to enforce "nuclear abandonment first" on us through political and
   military pressure and economic sanctions.

   The United States' policy of "strategic patience" and the "waiting
   strategy" of the Lee Myung-bak gang modeled after it have a thread of
   connection between them in that they oppose dialogue and improved
   relations between the North and the South and intensify confrontation. The
   door to improving North-South relations can never open, as long as such
   policies of confrontation continue.

   The "Ch'o 'nan" ship incident and the Yo'np'yo'ng Island incident would
   not have taken place at all, if the reckless anti-Republic confrontational
   policy of the United States and the South Korean authorities did not exist
   and the 15 June Joint Declaration and the 4 October Declaration were
   implemented.

   Talking to us about some kind of "apology" under the pretext of the
   "Ch'o'nan" ship incident and the Yo'np'yo'ng Island incident is indeed
   tantamount to a thief crying thief.

   We clearly state that the reason that North-South relations are unable to
   escape from catastrophe is not due to the "Ch'o'nan" ship incident and the
   Yo'np'yo'ng Island incident but due to the anti-Republic confrontational
   policy of the South Korean authorities that caused them.

   The fact that the South Korean ruling forces are using the two incidents
   as a pretext for obstructing improvement in North-South relations in
   collusion with the United States implies th at they intend to keep up the
   anti-Republic confrontational policy to the end. In such a situation,
   anti-Republic provocation incidents, such as the "Ch'o'nan" ship and
   Yo'np'yo'ng Island incidents, can erupt once again at any time. As a
   matter of fact, the South Korean warmongers have recently concentrated
   offensive armed forces on a large scale in the West Sea (Yellow Sea) of
   Korea in collusion with the United States under the pretext of preparing
   for somebody's "additional provocation," and they are staging all sorts of
   dangerous exercises of northward aggression aimed at mounting a preemptive
   attack day after day.

   The reality clearly proves that the catastrophe in North-South relations
   can never be resolved and that it would only aggravate further day by day,
   if the anti-reunification confrontational policy of the Lee Myung-bak
   conservative gang is left as it is.

   The anti-Republic confrontational policy of the South Korean conservative
   a uthorities, which is driving North-South relations to catastrophe, has
   to be withdrawn unconditionally.

   Nothing but ruin will be brought to confrontational fanatics who create
   grave obstacles to improving North-South relations while running counter
   to the aspiration of the times and the nation.

   (Description of Source: Pyongyang Rodong Sinmun (Electronic Edition) in
   Korean -- Daily of the Central Committee of the Workers Party of Korea;
   posted on the Korean Press Media (KPM) website run by the pro-Pyongyang
   General Association of Korean Residents in Japan; URL:
   http://dprkmedia.com)Attachments:ATTOLE92.pdfnsrelationsrscommentary17jun11.pdf

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   132) Back to Top
   Top ROK, US Diplomats To Sign Development Cooperation Deal
   Report by Lee Chi-dong: "Top S. Korean, U.S. Diplomats to Sign Development
   Cooperation Deal" - Yonhap
   Friday June 24, 2011 01:37:49 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   133) Back to Top
   : ROK Editorial: Pro-North Korea Sympathizers, Disappear! - Dong-A Ilbo
   Online
   Friday June 24, 2011 01:08:30 GMT
   A bigger problem is that though North Korean forces inflicted the worst
   atrocities on the Korean people, voices at large in the South actively
   seek to side with the North`s communist regime and ridicule
   anti-communism. The English musical "Battle of Jangjinho," whose
   screenplay was written by novelist Bok Geo-il, is also being staged.
   Cultural commemoration of the Korean War is necessary even just to allow
   the younger generation who did not experience the Korean War to learn and
   get a feel for the war.

   In the academic community, Yonsei University professor Park Myung-lim, a
   scholar of the war, recently published the book, History, Knowledge and
   Society "Understanding the Korean War and Korean Society." In the book,
   Park criticized American historian Bruce Cumings, who questions if the war
   was caused by an invasion by North or South Korea. Once deeply sympathetic
   to Cumings, Park said, "Whether the war was caused by invasion by the No
   rth or South is not a matter of whether you`re a conservative or
   progressive, but a matter of facts," adding, "After documents in Russia
   and China were declassified in the 1990s, it became clear that the Korean
   War was triggered by the North's invasion."

   Despite this, forces in South Korea who disguise themselves as
   progressives say they are unsure if the war was caused by invasion by the
   North or South or it was a civil war, trying to deny facts. Certain
   teachers even go as far as instilling students with distorted views of the
   Korean War. As a result, a new generation emerges who seek to inherit such
   beliefs and side with the North`s communist regime, which has been dubbed
   "the worst government in the world." The Korean War has long been
   confirmed not to be a civil war like the American Civil War, but an
   international conflict started by Kim Il Sung (Kim Il-so'ng) under the
   backing of Josef Stalin and Mao Zedong.

   Cumings also committe d the "fallacy of bias" by emphasizing massacres of
   civilians by South Korean and American troops, but lightly speaking of the
   North when it did the same. The "parrots of Cumings" must disappear from
   this country. MBC TV will broadcast a documentary on the Korean War titled
   "Nogeun-ri Remains Unresolved" Saturday. Massacres of innocent civilians
   by the North Korean military should not be glossed over while those
   erroneously committed by South Korean and American soldiers are
   highlighted. The Republic of Korea proudly exists and prospers as the
   world's 13th-largest economy because it overcame the disaster of the
   Korean War with global support, including from the U.S. South Korea`s
   younger generation must keep this in mind.

   (Description of Source: Seoul Dong-A Ilbo Online in English -- English
   website carrying English summaries and full translation of vernacular hard
   copy items of the second-oldest major ROK daily Dong-A Ilbo, which is cons
   ervative in editorial orientation -- generally pro-US, anti-North Korea;
   URL: http://english.donga.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   134) Back to Top
   Hyundai Equus Ranks 2nd in U.S. Quality Test - Yonhap
   Friday June 24, 2011 01:45:55 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   135) Back to Top
   Pro-North Korea Sympathizers, Disappear!
   Corrected version: removing typo in headline - Dong-A Ilbo Online
   Friday June 24, 2011 01:45:51 GMT
   A bigger problem is that though North Korean forces inflicted the worst
   atrocities on the Korean people, voices at large in the South actively
   seek to side with the North`s communist regime and ridicule
   anti-communism. The English musical "Battle of Jangjinho," whose
   screenplay was written by novelist Bok Geo-il, is also being staged.
   Cultural commemoration of the Korean War is necessary even just to allow
   the younger generation who did not experience the Korean War to learn and
   get a feel for the war.

   In the academic community, Yonsei University professor Park Myung-lim, a
   scholar of the war, recently published the book, History, Knowledge and
   Society "Understanding the Korean War and Korean Society." In the book,
   Park criticized American historian Bruce Cumings, who questions if the war
   was caused by an invasion by North or South Korea. Once deeply sympathetic
   to Cumings, Park said, "Whether the war was caused by invasion by the
   North or South is not a matter of whether you`re a conservative or
   progressive, but a matter of facts," adding, "After documents in Russia
   and China were declassified in the 1990s, it became clear that the Korean
   War was triggered by the North's invasion."

   Despite this, forces in South Korea who disguise themselves as
   progressives say they are unsure if the war was caused by invasion by the
   North or South or it was a civil war, trying to deny facts. Certain
   teachers even go as far as instilling students with distorted views of the
   Korean War. As a result, a new generation emerges who seek to inherit such
   beliefs and si de with the North`s communist regime, which has been dubbed
   "the worst government in the world." The Korean War has long been
   confirmed not to be a civil war like the American Civil War, but an
   international conflict started by Kim Il Sung (Kim Il-so'ng) under the
   backing of Josef Stalin and Mao Zedong.

   Cumings also committed the "fallacy of bias" by emphasizing massacres of
   civilians by South Korean and American troops, but lightly speaking of the
   North when it did the same. The "parrots of Cumings" must disappear from
   this country. MBC TV will broadcast a documentary on the Korean War titled
   "Nogeun-ri Remains Unresolved" Saturday. Massacres of innocent civilians
   by the North Korean military should not be glossed over while those
   erroneously committed by South Korean and American soldiers are
   highlighted. The Republic of Korea proudly exists and prospers as the
   world's 13th-largest economy because it overcame the disaster of t he
   Korean War with global support, including from the U.S. South Korea`s
   younger generation must keep this in mind.

   (Description of Source: Seoul Dong-A Ilbo Online in English -- English
   website carrying English summaries and full translation of vernacular hard
   copy items of the second-oldest major ROK daily Dong-A Ilbo, which is
   conservative in editorial orientation -- generally pro-US, anti-North
   Korea; URL: http://english.donga.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   136) Back to Top
   S. Korea's National Pension Fund Opens New York Office - Yonhap
   Friday June 24, 2011 01:51:08 GMT
   (Des cription of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   137) Back to Top
   ROK's Yonhap: Obama Extends 'National Emergency' for Sanctions Against
   DPRK
   Report by Lee Chi-dong: "Obama Extends National Emergency Against N.
   Korea" - Yonhap
   Thursday June 23, 2011 23:43:56 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   138) Back to Top
   Unnamed Source Says ROK Presidential Aide in US For Talks on DPRK, FTA
   Updated version: updating metadata; Yonhap headline: "Presidential Aide in
   U.S. For Possible Talks on N. Korea, FTA: Source" - Yonhap
   Thursday June 23, 2011 12:38:16 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   139) Back to Top
   Results of 2004 Study Finds Traces of Dioxin in USFK Base
   The following is a source-supplied update to the referent item; Yonhap
   headline: "(LEAD) 2004 Study Finds Traces of Dioxin Inside U.S. Military
   Base" - Yonhap
   Thursday June 23, 2011 11:26:50 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   140) Back to Top
   Released Results Confirm Chemical Burial at USFK Base in Late 1970s
   Report By Lee Tae-hoon: "Chemical Burial Confirmed in Camp Carroll" - The
   Korea Times Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 11:48:26 GMT
   M

   141) Back to Top
   DPRK Sends Delegation of State News Agency to US
   Yonhap headline: "(LEAD) N. Korea Sends Delegation of State News Agency to
   U.S." - Yonhap
   Thursday June 23, 2011 10:42:59 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.&lt; br&gt;

   142) Back to Top
   Newly Released Results of 2004 Study Finds Traces of Dioxin in USFK Base
   Yonhap headline: "2004 Study Finds Traces of Dioxin Inside U.S. Military
   Base" - Yonhap
   Thursday June 23, 2011 10:33:49 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   143) Back to Top
   Spokesman for ROK Party Calls on USFK To Apologize for Violence Against
   Citizens
   KCNA headline: "U.S. Forces Urged to Apologize For Violence Against
   Civilians" - KCNA
   Thursday June 23, 2011 10:09:24 GMT
   (Description of Source: Pyongyang KCNA in English -- Official DPRK news
   agency. URL: http://www.kcna.co.jp)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   144) Back to Top
   (LEAD) S. Korean Businesses Urge Quick Ratification of Korea-U.S. FTA -
   Yonhap
   Thursday June 23, 2011 10:05:19 GMT
   SEOUL, June 23 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's major industry leaders and
   government officials called for early im plementation of a free trade
   agreement (FTA) with the United States on Thursday, saying the country
   simply cannot afford to wait any longer.

   The Korea-U.S. FTA was signed four years ago, but still needs to be
   ratified by both the South Korean and U.S. legislatures. The deal was
   supplemented late last year with minor modifications that mostly deal with
   the auto industry."For our country that depends highly on international
   markets, securing overseas markets is important to overcome economic
   crises, and thus the strategic importance of FTAs is growing daily," said
   Chae Wook, head of the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy
   (KIEP), in a seminar jointly hosted by the Korea International Trade
   Association (KITA).The trade deal with the United States is the country's
   largest FTA, which, once implemented, is expected create over 300,000 jobs
   in South Korea alone and boost the country's economic growth by 6
   percent.The deal, however, has been blocked he re partly because of strong
   opposition from the country's farmers."Damage to the dairy industry from
   the Korea-U.S. FTA will be significant, so measures to protect the
   industry are urgently needed as the industry could very well collapse,"
   Lee Seung-ho, head of the Korea Dairy and Beef Farmers Association,
   said.An official from the Korea Federation of Textile Industries said the
   trade agreement will be mutually beneficial to the industrial sectors of
   both South Korea and the United States, but complex details of the deal
   could lead to unnecessary losses."We fear of possible losses as sections
   governing the places of origin of textile and manufacturing processes are
   rather complex," Yeom Gyu-bae said.Other industry leaders, however, said
   the country will have more to gain from the Korea-U.S. FTA."With the
   supplementary agreement (signed late last year), remaining questions for
   the country's automakers in the U.S. market have been addressed, and once
   t he deal is enacted, they will be able to take an advantageous position
   against their competitors in the large U.S. automobile market of 15
   million units a year," said Kim Tae-nyeon, an official from the Korea
   Automobile Manufacturers Association.Choi Yong-min, an official from KITA,
   noted the deal will also help the country's smaller exporters."In just
   seven years since the Korea-Chile FTA was enacted, our market share in
   Chile more than doubled and the number of businesses exporting goods to
   Chile jumped 43.1 percent from 873 to 1,249," he said. "This proves that
   an FTA has a very positive effect on creating new business opportunities
   for small and medium-sized businesses and creating jobs."Choi Seok-young,
   the country's top FTA negotiator, also called for a quick ratification of
   the Korea-U.S. FTA, saying the deal will be more beneficial to the country
   than it is to the U.S."It must be implemented at an early date as the
   economic and strategic benefits of the Korea-U.S. FTA are still valid and
   it is an agreement that is more beneficial to us," he said.(Description of
   Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news agency of the ROK;
   URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   145) Back to Top
   ROK Official's Remarks 'Seen as a Sign' of Softer Stance on DPRK
   Yonhap headline: "S. Korea Seen Softening Demand For N.K. Apology Before
   Resumption of Talks" - Yonhap
   Thursday June 23, 2011 10:28:44 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; UR L: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   146) Back to Top
   Soil, Groundwater Near Old US Bases Contaminated - Chosun Ilbo Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 05:25:26 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Chosun Ilbo Online in English -- English
   website carrying English summaries and full translations of vernacular
   hard copy items of the largest and oldest daily Chosun Ilbo, which is
   conservative in editorial orientation -- strongly nationalistic,
   anti-North Korea, and generally pro-US; URL: http://english.chosun.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   147) Back to Top
   DPRK Sends Delegation of State News Agency to US
   Yonhap headline: "N. Korea Sends Delegation of State News Agency to U.S."
   - Yonhap
   Thursday June 23, 2011 05:31:29 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   148) Back to Top
   International Flotilla, Again
   "International Flotilla, Again" -- Jordan Times Headline - Jordan Times
   Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 05:24:26 GMT
   Boats participating in the latest international flotilla to challenge
   Israel's siege and blockade of Gaza are set to gather in the eastern
   Mediterranean next week and attempt to make the passage to the strip in
   spite of threats from the Israeli navy to block the way.

   A second 'Freedom Flotilla' was inevitable after the May 2010 attack by
   Israeli commandos that slew nine Turkish activists on the Mavi Marmara, an
   Istanbul ferry taking part in the first flotilla. The ferry will, however,
   not be involved in the latest effort. Its owner, a Turkish charitable
   organisation, the IHH, claims that it has mechanical problems and cannot
   sail, but has let it be known that under extreme pressure, the Turkish
   government refused granting the necessary permit to embark on the journey.

   The absence of the Mavi Marmara could, however, be a blessing, as those
   who oppose the effort cannot continue to argue that the flotilla has been
   organised by IHH, which has wrongly been accused of being a fundamentalist
   movement involved with 'terrorists'.

   The worst that can honestly be said about passengers and crew from the
   other 20-odd nations participating in the voyage is that they are
   'pro-Palestinian activists' pursuing a course of action that Israel and
   its allies want to halt.

   Nevertheless, in April, Israel accused flotilla organisers of being
   involved with Hamas, dubbed a 'terrorist organisation' by Israel and the
   US.

   In addition to putting pressure on countries where ships taking part in
   the flotilla are registered or based and on insurance companies covering
   the boats, novel means have been used to prevent the voyage. Activists,
   particular ly those on the US vessel, the Audacity of Hope, have even been
   threatened with legal action by Dr Alan Bauer, a Harvard-graduated
   biologist who was injured in a 2002 bombing in Jerusalem has filed a civil
   suit in New York under a US law that provides for criminal and civil
   penalties for anyone preparing a vessel intending hostilities against a
   foreign state with which the US has peaceful relations.

   Bauer has also sent a letter to US Attorney General Eric Holder, asking
   that the Justice Department investigate and prosecute those involved,
   particularly the 36 US citizens set to sail on board the Audacity of Hope,
   named for one of President Barack Obama's biographical books.

   More than a quarter of the US citizens on this boat are Jewish. One of the
   organisers, Ann Wright, a retired colonel from the US army reserves, told
   the Israeli liberal daily Haaretz: 'believe that it is the responsibility
   of citizens to act when our governments fail to protect human rights - in
   this case, the Palestinians' (human rights).'

   Most other participants share her view.

   Why does the flotilla upset Israel so greatly?

   Israel's naval chief and a variety of politicians argue that the flotilla
   'delegitimises' Israel. But it is very difficult to see how. Israel is a
   sovereign state, established in 1948-49 and admitted to the UN in 1949.
   Israel is recognised by a majority of the world's governments and has the
   firm backing of the Western powers, particularly the US.

   Furthermore, the Free Gaza movement made several successful voyages to
   Gaza during the second half of 2008. The arrival of the first mission,
   involving the Free Gaza and the Liberty, two small Greek boats, was a
   spectacular success. Thousands of cheering, flag-waving Gazans were in the
   strip's fishing port to meet the boats and scores of television teams
   recorded their arrival which was broadcast live round the world.

   Gazans thought this blockade-busting effort w ould bring an end to their
   isolation. However, the blockade remains in place and Gaza is still
   isolated.

   The second voyage was low profile and the movement might have ended its
   campaign but for the fact that Israeli naval vessels rammed the yacht
   making a subsequent passage and halted all others. The Israeli attack on
   the Turkish boat in the first flotilla was a spectacular public relations
   disaster for the Netanyahu government. Therefore, flotillas, as such, do
   not 'delegitimise Israel'. This is an exaggeration. Instead,
   boats-for-Gaza make a statement about the lack of legitimacy of Israel's
   five-year-old siege and blockade of Gaza, which can be considered
   'collective punishment' of the strip's entire population of 1.5 million
   because Gaza is ruled by Hamas, a movement Israel and its supporters
   consider an enemy.

   Gazans themselves have no choice of ruler. Although Hamas won a majority
   of seats in the Palestinian legislature in the January 2006 election, the
   m ovement never took power at national level. Its chief rival, Fateh,
   refused to accept the result of the election and boycotted Hamas. Although
   a national unity government was formed under Saudi auspices in 2007, it
   was short-lived because of Israeli and US opposition. Fateh then tried and
   failed to stage a coup against Hamas in Gaza, but Fateh's fighters were
   defeated in six days of street fighting, its forces were routed, and left
   Gaza in charge of Hamas. This is hardly a reason to punish all Gazans.

   Why, then, does the flotilla incense Israel? Simply, Israel - which is
   used to getting its way - does not like to be challenged or confronted on
   any issue. This is especially true of Israel under the rightwing
   government formed by Benjamin Netanyahu who twice risked alienating Obama
   by refusing to freeze or curb Israeli settlement activity in the West Bank
   and East Jerusalem. This would have persuaded Palestinian President
   Mahmoud Abbas that Israel was serious about nego tiating the emergence of
   a viable Palestinian state. Netanyahu, however, opted for settlements
   rather than negotiations, and scuppered Obama's attempt to resolve the
   Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

   This humiliated Obama and exposed him as weak, upsetting Arabs and Muslims
   who believed he might make a serious attempt to adopt an even-handed
   policy on the Palestinian/Arab-Israeli conflict.

   Israel also believes there could be wider implications if it does not halt
   the flotilla and fears the domino effect if it fails to get its way on
   this one issue. Although Israel commands total loyalty from the US
   Congress - as Netanyahu's triumphant address to a recent joint session
   demonstrated - Israel still feels it could lose its purchase on the US,
   its sole friend. Israel is also nervous about Obama who, it believes,
   might retaliate - somehow - against it for humiliating him on the
   settlement freeze issue. 23 June 2011

   (Description of Source: Amman Jordan Times Online in English -- Website of
   Jordan Times, only Jordanian English daily known for its investigative and
   analytical coverage of controversial domestic issues; sister publication
   of Al-Ra'y; URL: http://www.jordantimes.com/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   149) Back to Top
   Mexico Economic Issues 23 Jun 11 - Mexico -- OSC Summary
   Thursday June 23, 2011 20:17:11 GMT
   -- Mexico City El Universal reports that the Chamber of Deputies is
   preparing a package of reforms to control the rising debt levels of state
   authorities, which are placing their public finances under increasing
   pressure. The legislativ e chamber's Center for Social and Public Opinion
   Studies proposed reforms to the Fiscal Coordination Law, the Public Debt
   Law, the Government Accounting Law, and the Constitution, in order to curb
   the capacity of local governments to acquire debt. These reforms, which
   are being reviewed by the chamber's Federalism and Finance committees,
   would require state authorities to seek approval from the federal
   Legislative branch before issuing or acquiring debt. Furthermore, the
   reforms would impose greater accountability on the state authorities' use
   of public resources. (Mexico City EL UNIVERSAL.com.mx in Spanish --
   Website of influential centrist daily; URL

   http://www.eluniversal.com.mx http://www.eluniversal.com.mx ) Pemex Aims
   To Make Taxpayers Liable for Company's Pensions

   -- Mexico City Reforma reports that with labor liabilities of a 677.1
   billion pesos ($57 billion) during the first quarter of 2011, Pemex
   (Mexican Petroleum) director Juan Jose Suarez Coppel be lieves that
   Mexico's taxpayers should be liable for this debt. Suarez Coppel explained
   in an interview that Pemex's labor liabilities increased by 81 billion
   pesos ($6.8 billion) per year, at a rate of 12 percent: "Right now our
   labor liabilities stand at almost 700 billion pesos and there are no funds
   to cover them. One third of our running expenses go toward pension
   payments for retirees (...). This has risen approximately 12 percent,
   which is a significant amount," the Pemex director declared. (Mexico City
   REFORMA.com in Spanish -- Website of major center-right daily owned by
   Grupo Reforma; URL:

   http://www.reforma.com http://www.reforma.com ) Mexico Doubles Automobile
   Sales to South America

   -- Mexico City Reforma reports that South America has become the second
   most important market -- after the United States -- for exports of
   vehicles assembled in Mexico. According to figures released by the Mexican
   Automobile Industry Association (AMIA), from Jan uary to May 2011 the
   country's automobile sector exported 114,277 vehicles to South America,
   which was 99 percent more than during the same period in 2010. AMIA
   chairman Eduardo Solis pointed out that South America represented 14.3
   percent of Mexico's automobile exports, which made it the country's second
   most important market after the United States. CRE: New Gas Distribution
   System To Allow Entry of Texas Producers

   -- Monterrey El Norte reports that according to Francisco Salazar,
   chairman of Mexico's Energy Regulating Commission (CRE), a new sales
   regime governing the distribution of natural gas could allow Texas
   producers of shale gas to offer their product directly to Mexican
   consumers. Salazar explained that the change from the current volumetric
   system to a new system based on reservations of duct capacity would allow
   Mexican and international suppliers to transport gas to end clients: "For
   example, a producer in Texas who wishes to start selling in Mexico cannot
   do so today, because there is no possibility of reserving capacity. So
   when capacity can be reserved, they will be able to say 'I have signed a
   contract with a client in Monterrey or in Saltillo, and in order to sell
   to them I will reserve the necessary capacity to move that gas'," Salazar
   explained. (Monterrey El Norte.com in Spanish --Website of northern Mexico
   centrist daily, owned by Grupo Reforma; URL:

   http://www.elnorte.com http://www.elnorte.com ) Legislators Urge
   Government Not To Sign ACTA

   -- Monterrey El Norte reports that a plenary session of the Legislative
   Branch's Permanent Commission app roved a motion urging the federal
   government not to sign the Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement (ACTA).
   Senator Francisco Javier Castellon, who drafted the motion, affirmed that
   "it is dangerous that this agreement considers the transmission of
   documents, fragments of books, or songs over the internet as a crime. This
   would criminalize users of the internet, for many of whom it is a medium
   for exchanges, leisure, and learning." Finance Secretary Declares Fight
   vs. Money Laundering Priority for Mexico

   -- Mexico City El Financiero reports that, addressing a joint plenary
   session of the FATF (Financial Action Task Force on Money Laundering) and
   GAFISUD (South American Financial Action Task Force on Money Laundering),
   Finance Secretary Ernesto Cordero Arroyo declared that the fight against
   money laundering and funding of terrorism was a priority for the Mexican
   Government. (Mexico City El Financiero en linea in Spanish -- Website of
   major national business and financial daily; URL

   http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx ) (OSC is
   translating this article as LAP20110623016005 Finance Secretary Declares
   Fight vs. Money Laundering Priority for Mexico)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   150) Back to Top
   Mexico's Northern Border Crime/Narcotics/Security Issues 23 Jun 11 -
   Mexico -- OSC Summary
   Thursday June 23, 2011 15:16:08 GMT
   CRIME/NARCOTICS Sedena Reports Results of Operation Northeast From 11-20
   June --

   The Secretariat of National Defense (Sedena) website in a 21 June press
   release reports the results of the Army's actions in Operation Northeast
   from 11-20 June in the states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, Tamaulipas, and San
   Luis Potosi. Soldiers arrested 83 persons and seized the following drugs:
   9.083757 metric tons of marijuana, 7,185 other doses of marijuana, 5.376
   kg of cocaine, 7,247 doses of cocaine, 5.558 kg of crack cocaine, 2,820
   doses of crack cocaine, 6. 035 kg of heroin, 840 g of crystal
   methamphetamine, and 562 psychotropic pills. Troops killed 12 gunmen and
   one soldier was killed during shootouts. The following weapons were
   seized: 315 shoulder firearms, 83 small arms, 2,984 ammunition clips,
   40,127 ammunition rounds, 26 grenades, and four grenade launchers.
   Soldiers also confiscated 154 vehicles, $135,909 in US currency, and
   9,883,931.50 pesos ($832,715.63). (Mexico City Secretariat of National
   Defense WWW-Text in Spanish -- Official website of the Mexican Secretariat
   of National Defense URL:

   http://www.sedena.gob.mx/ http://www.sedena.gob.mx/ ) Five Hundred Troops
   Sent to Nuevo Leon, Tamaulipas --

   Mexico City El Universal in a late morning update on 22 June reports that
   500 troops from the 15th Regiment of the Motorized Cavalry left Comitan,
   Chiapas State, to be deployed in Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon. This is the
   second time in two years that this military group has been sent to these
   states to assist with public security operations. This deployment is
   expected to last a few months. (Mexico City El Universal in Spanish --
   Major centrist daily. URL:

   http://www.el-universal.com.mx/ http://www.el-universal.com.mx/ ) BAJA
   CALIFORNIA Fifty Protest Border Patrol Shooting in Tijuana --

   Mexicali La Cronica.com reports that at least 50 persons held a brief
   demonstration yesterday evening at the San Ysidro border crossing in
   Tijuana, demanding justice for the shooting death of Jose Alfredo Yanez by
   a US Border Patrol agent. The protestors criticized the federal
   government's response to the incident, calling it weak and unconvincing.
   They urged the government to take action beyond mere words. (Mexicali La
   Cronica.com in Spanish -- Daily from Mexicali, Baja California State. URL:

   http://www.lacronica.com/ http://www.lacronica.com ) COAHUILA Daily
   Questions 'End' of La Familia Michoacana Cartel --

   A 22 June editorial from Saltillo Vanguardia notes the capture of Jose de
   Jesus Mendez Vargas ("El Chango"), head of the La Familia Michoacana drug
   cartel and the government's confidence that this blow signals the end of
   that criminal organization. The daily acknowledges that dismantling a
   major drug cartel would be a heartening accomplishment for government
   security forces. However, Vanguardia urges caution against being
   over-confident in the significance of the arrest, saying that imprisoning
   criminal bosses is good, but reducing criminal activity on the streets is
   better. (Saltillo Vanguardia Online in Spanish -- Website of daily from
   Coahuila State; URL:

   http://www.vanguardia.com.mx/ http://www.vanguardia.com.mx ) TAMAULIPAS
   Five Hundred Army Troops Deployed in Tampico Area --

   Tampico Milenio Diario de Tampico reports that more than 500 Army soldiers
   arrived in the Tampico metropolitan area yesterday, adding to the 500
   troops that were deployed on 13 May. Of the new group, 180 are assigned to
   Tampico, 180 to Ma dero, and 157 to Altamira. The new troops are expected
   to assist public security operations in the area for six months, according
   to Tampico Mayor Magdalena Peraza Guerra. (Tampico Milenio Diario de
   Tampico in Spanish -- Daily from Tampico, Tamaulipas State. URL:

   http://www.milenio.com/tampico/milenio)
   http://www.milenio.com/tampico/milenio) NUEVO LEON Coparmex Calls for More
   Military Troops in Nuevo Leon --

   Monterrey El Porvenir reports that Alfonso Garza Garza, president of the
   Employers Confederation of the Mexican Republic (Coparmex) in Nuevo Leon,
   yesterday called on the federal government to deploy more military
   soldiers to the state. He commented that police corruption has spiraled
   out of control and that the state's efforts to purge corrupt officers have
   been too slow. The private sector representative pointed specifically to
   the recent case in Zuazua, where all 25 Municipal Police officers were
   arrested for alleged ties to organized crime. Several have confessed to
   accepting bribes, while six acknowledged their involvement in the
   kidnapping of two bodyguards for Governor Rodrigo Medina who were later
   shot to death. (Monterrey El Porvenir in Spanish -- Daily from Monterrey,
   Nuevo Leon State. URL:

   http://www.elporvenir.com.mx/ http://www.elporvenir.com.mx )

   Billboard set on fire in Chihuahua capital (El Norte, 22 Jun)

   CHIHUAHUA Arsonists Destroy Billboards Offering Reward for Capture of La
   Linea Leader --

   Ciudad Juarez El Diario.mx reports that three billboards showing the
   government's offer of 15 million pesos ($1.267 million) for the capture of
   Jose Antonio Acosta ("El Diego") were set on fire after being posted for
   about a week in the Chihuahua capital. "El Diego" is a former state police
   officer and is considered a high-ranking leader of La Linea, the main gang
   of hitmen for the Juarez Cartel. The billboards were located at the corner
   of Heroico Colegio Militar Avenue an d Yucatan Street; on Circuito
   Universitario Avenue; and at the corner of 38th Street and the Francisco
   Almada Beltway. (Ciudad Juarez El Diario.mx in Spanish -- Most widely read
   border daily published in Chihuahua State. Root URL as of filing date:

   http://www.diario.com.mx/ http://www.diario.com.mx ) FGE Denies Attack on
   Praxedis G. Guerrero Police Chief --

   Monterrey El Norte in an update on 22 June reports that Rosario Rosales
   Ramirez (40), who was seriously wounded during a 21 June attack at the La
   Fortuna ranch at km 67 of the Juarez-Porvenir Highway in the Praxedis G.
   Guerrero municipality, is not the town's Public Security secretary. The
   State Prosecutor General's Office (FGE) refuted initial reports, and City
   Council Secretary Andres Morales Arreola indicated that the victim is a
   local police officer with 15 days on the force. Two civilians were also
   wounded during the shooting. (Monterrey El Norte in Spanish -- Major
   northern Mexico centrist daily; siste r, predecessor publication of Mexico
   City Reforma newspaper. URL:

   http://www.elnorte.com/ http://www.elnorte.com ) Parral Coparmex President
   Freed Week After Kidnapping --

   Ciudad Juarez El Diario.mx reports that Luis Valles Benitez, president of
   the Hidalgo del Parral chapter of Coparmex, was released from captivity
   more than a week after being kidnapped. Early yesterday morning, the
   victim was found in the city's Villa Matamoros community, following his
   abduction on 14 June. The kidnapping was never formally reported to local
   law enforcement. Prison Guard Shot to Death in Ciudad Juarez --

   Mexico City Blog del Narco in a 22 June post reports that Francisco
   Hernandez (48) was shot to death the afternoon of 21 June while riding a
   motorcycle on General Roberto Fierro Street in the Aeropuerto Industrial
   Park of Ciudad Juarez. The victim was a guard at the city's prison and was
   in uniform at the time of the attack. (Mexico City Blog del Narco in
   Spanish -- Bl og created on 2 March 2010 by a "sole author" claiming to be
   "neither in favor of or against" any criminal groups; URL:

   http://www.blogdelnarco.info/ http://www.blogdelnarco.info ) Nearly 40
   Customs Agents Fired in Ciudad Juarez --

   Ciudad Juarez El Diario.mx reports that 39 Customs agents in Ciudad Juarez
   have been fired after failing evaluations aimed at detecting corrupt or
   otherwise untrustworthy elements. This total made up nearly one-third of
   all Customs agents in the city. The "trust test" evaluations are
   administered every six months. A total of 25 agents were fired last
   December. Foreign Trade Officials (Oce) replaced the Fiscal Police as
   customs enforcement agents in an effort to eliminate corruption. Reports
   have shown that this switch has proven fruitless, as seizures of firearms
   and other contraband remain shockingly rare.

   SECURITY/HEALTH

   (no selections)

   OSC found no file-worthy material in the foll owing sources: PGR website,
   SSP website, Semar website, Tijuana el mexicano, Hermosillo El
   Imparcial.com, Nogales El Diario de Sonora, Chihuahua Tiempo la noticia
   digital, Torreon El Siglo de Torreon

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   151) Back to Top
   Lithuanian Analyst Censures President's Statements on Defense Spending
   "NATO Partners Won't Like Lithuanian President's Remarks on Defense
   Funding - Political Expert" -- BNS headline - BNS
   Thursday June 23, 2011 08:13:30 GMT
   "It's a bad signal and is part of a number of texts where, I believe, the
   president, stressing her indepen dence, chose words very uncarefully,"
   Girnius told BNS commenting on Grybauskaite's remark that the commitment
   to earmark 2 percent of their gross domestic products (GDP) to defense is
   virtually non-existent.

   "You see, when rules are not written down, they do not exist," the
   Lithuanian president told journalists when asked whether the unwritten
   rule of granting 2 percent of GDP to defense was no longer relevant.

   "I think very few NATO member countries have doubts that they are expected
   to allocate 2 percent for defense. The rule is written or not written, the
   commitment is there, they hope for that, and nobody has doubts about
   that," Girnius said stressing that in many spheres unwritten rules are
   very serious rules. Partners who spend a lot more would most likely not
   like the Lithuanian president's comments, the expert said.

   "Usually, when things like that are explained the complicated economic
   situation is mentioned and tha t there is no money. But when one says
   point-blank that we don't think we have such a commitment, when one says
   that we are very indifferent about our commitments, I think our partners
   will not like it very much. A question arises as to why some countries
   should give a lot of money for other countries to indirectly sponge,"
   Girnius said.

   Lithuanian currently earmarks less than 1 percent of its GDP for defense.

   "When a country gives less than a half of what it expected to give, no
   matter how well you use that money, it won't counterbalance. It would be
   the same if an employer told an employee 'I will halve your wage, but if
   you use the remaining money wisely, everything will be fine.' I don't
   think employees would accept that. I also don't think NATO partners would
   also accept the saying that we use it wisely and you don't," the political
   scientist told BNS.

   The Lithuanian president stated her opinion on Wednesday during a visit to
   the inte rnational exercise Amber Hope 2011 held in Lithuania. In
   Grybauskaite's words, the quality of armed forces does not depend on the
   amount of money but, instead, on the way available funds are spent.

   "First of all, please be reminded that I worked as the finance minister
   and I my answer is that the quality does not depend on the amount of money
   but on the way it is spend and our ability to use what is spend.
   Therefore, it depends on the quality, not the quantity," she said.

   Grybauskaite stated that Lithuania's future defense spending figures would
   depend on its capacities.

   "As we see now, it indeed does not depend on the quantity but on the
   quality. (...) Lithuania's contribution will definitely not be machinery
   or tanks but qualifications and innovations, and we will attempt to make
   an innovation contribution to NATO," said the president.

   Although Lithuania's defense spending is less than 1 percent of the GDP,
   she said: "Li thuania will increasingly become the territory with an
   interest and willingness to attend exercise."

   Commenting on the remark that Americans say you first need to allocate
   money and then talk about spending it qualitatively, the Lithuanian
   president said that "it's easy for a large country to talk when it can
   take with quantity. Lithuanian will take with quality."

   Earlier this month in Brussels, outgoing US Secretary of Defense Robert
   Gates said in no uncertain terms NATO countries in Europe should spend
   more on their own security, earmark more money for funding defense as
   otherwise the Alliance risks to loose (lose) its military meaning.

   He stressed that as US President Barack Obama was tr ying to deal with the
   US budget deficit of 1.4 trillion dollars, Americans legislators may start
   doubting whether the American 75 percent share in the Alliance's budget is
   acceptable.

   "The blunt reality is that there will be dwindling appeti te and patience
   in the U.S. Congress -- and in the American body politic writ large -- to
   expend increasingly precious funds on behalf of nations that are
   apparently unwilling to devote the necessary resources or make the
   necessary changes to be serious and capable partners in their own
   defense," he said.

   Under an informal agreement, NATO member countries have to reach and try
   to retain the 2 percent of GDP level of defense spending. Lithuanian
   allocates less than 1 percent. It's one of the worst rates among NATO
   countries.

   Currently only five of 28 NATO member countries earmark 2 percent and more
   of their GDP. Estonia plans to reach that level in 2012.

   (Description of Source: Vilnius BNS in English -- Baltic News Service, the
   largest private news agency in the Baltic States, providing news on
   political developments in all three Baltic countries; URL:
   http://www.bns.lt)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the sou
   rce cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder.
   Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.

   152) Back to Top
   Lithuania Tests Remote Troop Health Monitoring Technology During Exercise
   "Lithuanian Troops Test Technological Novelties During International
   Exercise" -- BNS headline - BNS
   Thursday June 23, 2011 08:02:20 GMT
   Participants of the multinational Exercise Amber Hope 2011 demonstrated
   military maneuvers simulating NATO international operations when terrorist
   forces attack patrolling troops they return fire, receive support from the
   air and immediate response forces. A light attack aircraft L-39 of the
   Lithuanian Air Force was flying over Lithuania, explosions roared and
   machine-gun shots were heard.

   " ;You saw the real picture the way it happened in Afghanistan when our
   special forces and other troops in Chagcharan find themselves in such a
   situation, and when they need help they call back-up from the air, medical
   help," Lithuanian Chief of Defense Arvydas Pocius said after the
   demonstration.

   In his words, an innovative remote troop health monitoring technology is
   being tested during the exercise.

   "It has been an experiment so far, and medical scientists are working with
   military medics. Certain receivers are put on a troop's body and with the
   help of computer systems they show the troop's health state, including his
   heartbeat, respiratory rate etc. If the troop's health state is poor,
   computer systems will identify his location and what happened to him. But
   these are future projects, I am glad that our scientists work in this
   area. If NATO commands are interested in such projects, NATO can allocate
   certain funds to develop, support science," Pocius said.

   The exercise took place not only in Pabrade but also at Kairiai polygon
   near the Lithuanian port of Klaipeda. All four branches of the Lithuanian
   military -- special forces, marine, air and land forces - took part in the
   exercise.

   On Wednesday, the exercise was attended by Lithuanian President Dalia
   Grybauskaite, Minister of National Defense rasa Jukneviciene, members of
   the Lithuanian parliament, foreign ambassadors, all chiefs of the
   Lithuanian army as well as visiting Major General Wesley E. Craig,
   adjutant general of the US Pennsylvania National Guard.

   "Such exercises, especially when Lithuania and the Baltic states have
   defense plans, will be held very often. They are necessary for
   international forces to be capable of coordinating their actions and work
   together as one country cannot carry out the whole operation. Our
   experience in Afghanistan is very useful and this experience can be used
   in any place of the world," Grybausk aite told journalists.

   Six F-16 demonstration aircraft from the US Air Force Thunderbirds
   squadron flew Pabrade polygon.

   Over 2, 000 troops are taking part in the Exercise Amber Hope 2011 with
   more than half of the troops represent foreign countries.

   (Description of Source: Vilnius BNS in English -- Baltic News Service, the
   largest private news agency in the Baltic States, providing news on
   political developments in all three Baltic countries; URL:
   http://www.bns.lt)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   153) Back to Top
   Unions To Push for Rejection of FTA with US
   Unattributed Article: "Unions To Push for Rejection of FTA with US" -
   prensa.com
   Thursday June 23, 2011 20:47:53 GMT
   that the pending free trade agreement (FTA) between the two countries be
   rejected.

   Labor leader Mariano Mena said that the unions are seeking that action due
   to abuses committed by the government of Panama against trade unions and
   associations of employees in the public sector. He said the request is
   being processed by the AFL-CIO, which performs lobbying actions on behalf
   of labor organizations.

   The FTA, which was drafted in 2007, is currently being debated in the US
   Congress.

   The obstacles to ratification in the US have included allegations of labor
   violations and political tensions between Washington and the government of
   President Ricardo Martinelli.

   Minister of Labor Alma Cortes shrugged off the allegations of the
   Panamanian unions Wednesday (22 June) morning and argued that human rights
   are respected in this country.

   H owever, Alfredo Berrocal, leader of the National Federation of Public
   Servants, has recently accused the government of gross violations of the
   rights of public sector employees, including acts of repression and
   unjustified dismissals.

   (Description of Source: Panama City prensa.com in English -- Online
   version of most widely circulated daily, pro business; URL
   http://www.prensa.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   154) Back to Top
   Report on US Official Feltmans Visit to Yemen, Talks With Yemeni
   Officials
   Report from Sanaa by Ghamdan al-Yusufi: The Aim of Feltmans Visit Is to
   Assert His Countrys Stand on the Need to Enforce the Gulf States
   Initiative. A High-Ranking S ource in the Yemeni Opposition Told Ilaf that
   US Assistant Secretary of State Jeffrey Feltman Held an Approximately
   70-Minute-Long Meeting With Leaders of the Joint Meeting [group of
   opposition parties] on Wednesday Evening Following a Similar Meeting With
   Vice President Abd Rabbuh Mansur and President Salihs Son - Ilaf.com
   Thursday June 23, 2011 17:21:33 GMT
   asserted the United States' stand in support of a peaceful and swift
   transfer of power in accordance with the Gulf states' initiative.

   The source added that the US official expressed his shock at the military
   and security situation that he saw in the streets of the capital,
   interruption of the electricity supply, and the difficult circumstances in
   which the country ended up.

   According to the source that attended the meeting, Feltman pointed out
   that the aim of his visit was not to convince the official side in Yemen ,
   but to explain the US stand and put an end to the varying views on this
   stand. According to the source, Feltman said the United States currently
   sides with the Gulf states' initiative that provides for a peaceful and
   smooth transfer of power and that he informed President Salih's deputy and
   his son of this stand at a meeting that took place before his meeting with
   the opposition.

   The source said Feltman expressed the United States' apprehensions toward
   the delay in enforcing the Gulf states' initiative and that he expressed
   his concern over the deteriorating situation in the country.

   Feltman ends today, Thursday, a visit to Yemen, the first by a senior US
   Administration official since the beginning of the crisis. During the
   visit, he met with the vice president, the Yemeni president's son, Ahmad
   Ali Abdallah Salih, and the foreign minister to whom he delivered a letter
   from US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

   Clinton's letter included condemnation o f the attack on President Ali
   Abdallah Salih and senior Yemeni officials in the mosque of the
   presidential compound on the 3 rd of this month. Clinton asserted that the
   US Embassy in Sanaa will work with the Yemeni Government to provide the
   necessary assistance.

   In her letter, Clinton said: "Violence will not resolve the issues that
   Yemen faces." She added that she looks forward to working with the Yemeni
   Government, the Gulf Cooperation Council states, other international
   partners, and friends of Yemen to resolve the political crisis in Yemen in
   a way that will fulfill the Yemeni people's needs and aspirations.

   In the same context, the official Yemeni News Agency reported that
   President Salih's deputy, acting President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, said at
   his meeting with the US official: "US President Barack Obama's personal
   interest and moves with the fraternal and friendly states and parties to
   ease the tension in Yemen helped a great deal to over come the serious
   stages."

   Both the United States and EU are leading efforts to transfer power to the
   Yemeni vice president under the constitution, taking advantage of
   President Salih's presence in Riyadh where he has been receiving treatment
   for three weeks now. For its part, the organizing committee of the
   revolution called for boycotting Feltman's visit in denunciation of the US
   stand on the revolution.

   The protesters who are opposed to the Salih regime level criticisms at the
   United States, and some of the protesters accuse it of supporting Salih on
   the pretext that Salih is an important ally of the United States in the
   fight against terrorism.

   Feltman's current visit to Yemen is his second to the country. He visited
   Sanaa in March last year, met with President Salih and his officials, and
   discussed with them issues related to the war on terror. The Initiative is
   the Most Suitable Solution

   Political analyst Abd-al-Ghani al-Iryani tells Ila f : "The international
   community in general, led by the United States, seeks to persuade the
   Yemeni parties to continue to support the Gulf states' initiative, which
   includes the formation of a national unity government and continuation of
   measures for a peaceful transfer of power."

   He added: "Feltman came to Yemen to talk to the parties conce rned,
   including the opposition and the president's sons, and to persuade them to
   continue to enforce the Gulf states' initiative. He came to also meet with
   the president's sons because they are the main obstacle to the
   continuation of constitutional legitimacy."

   Al-Iryani said: "The president's sons find it very difficult to accept
   this outcome. It is this outcome on which their father was about to sign
   on the Tuesday that followed the bombing incident in the Al-Nahdayn
   Mosque. This incident kept the president from signing (the Gulf states'
   initiative)."

   He explained: "Shortly bef ore the incident (exactly at 12 noon), the
   president and his government officials took a decision to sign the Gulf
   states' initiative the next Tuesday and went to perform prayers after the
   meeting. Then this incident, which disrupted the signing, took place."

   Al-Iryani noted: "Feltman's visit was not expected. However, the United
   States was indeed expected to continue to discuss the issue."

   He said: "Currently, the final answer lies with President Salih, not with
   his sons. Saudi Arabia will exert efforts to convince Salih that the idea
   of returning to the country is not a good one. Saudi Arabia is fully
   convinced of the need for Salih to sign the Gulf states' initiative and to
   continue to enforce its provisions because the initiative is its own idea
   in the first place."

   This visit comes one day after the US Embassy in Sanaa announced the
   arrival of food aid supplies in Yemen worth $10 million, presented by the
   US Agency for Inter national Development to the World Food Program. The
   supplies include flour, beans, and cooking oil to be given to 416,000
   people in Sa'dah and Harad in Hajjah in the north of the country most of
   whom are displaced people from the local area who have been affected by
   the war in Sa'dah. A Meeting Between the Vice President and the Two
   Al-Ahmars

   Meanwhile, sources close to Shaykh Sadiq al-Ahmar said that Yemeni Vice
   President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi held a joint meeting with Major General
   Ali Muhsin al-Ahmar, a military commander who had defected from the
   regime, and leader of the Hashid Tribes Shaykh Sadiq al-Ahmar, in addition
   to his brother Shaykh Hamid al-Ahmar who is a businessman and leading
   figure in the opposition.

   According to the source, the conferees discussed "the mechanism of
   transfer of power in Yemen in the absence of President Ali Abdallah Salih
   to enable the vice president to fully exercise the president's powers."

   (Description of Source: London Ilaf.com in Arabic -- Saudi-owned,
   independent Internet daily with pan-Arab, liberal line. URL:
   http://www.elaph.com/)

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   Commerce.

   155) Back to Top
   Senior Russian MP rejects US criticism of ban on liberal party - Rossiya
   24
   Thursday June 23, 2011 17:14:54 GMT
   Interviewed on state-owned Russian news channel Rossiya 24 on 23 June,
   Aleksandr Babakov, who is one of the deputy speakers of the State Duma,
   said that the United States was interfering in Russia's internal affairs.

   "I felt a certain resentment over this discourteous intervention in our in
   ternal affairs because the procedure for registration or non-registration
   is not the subject of international relations. If the Americans allow
   themselves to react like this, it probably means that either they are
   strongly worried about this - perhaps they expected something different
   from certain people, which gives more food for thought - or their domestic
   problems are so profound that they always need to get involved in the
   discussion of a theme that does not concern America itself. In any case,
   this is rather discourteous, to put it mildly. I would advise everyone
   here to deal with their own problems and try to resolve them
   domestically," Babakov said.

   (Description of Source: Moscow Rossiya 24 in Russian -- State-owned,
   24-hour news channel (formerly known as Vesti TV) launched in 2006 by the
   All-Russian State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company (VGTRK), which
   also owns Rossiya TV and Radio)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copy righted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   156) Back to Top
   Putin Talks About Seeking 'Pretext' To Ban More Food Imports - Interfax
   Thursday June 23, 2011 16:19:22 GMT
   Putin's remarks, which he made at a congress of the Russian Agrarian
   Movement in Rostov-na-Donu on 23 June, were reported by corporate-owned
   Russian news agency Interfax.

   Putin also appeared to suggest that Russia's chief public health officer
   Gennadiy Onishchenko did not take decisions independently.

   Asked if Russia should ban low-quality dairy imports, "just as it treated
   European vegetables" following an E. coli outbreak in Germany, Putin said:
   "We need a pretext. If only there was a pretext, we would do it tomorrow.
   Onishchenko is already rubbing his hands and waiting for the command,"
   Putin said, as reported by Interfax.

   "At every convenient opportunity, we will lend our shoulder to our
   producers," he added.

   (Description of Source: Moscow Interfax in Russian -- Nonofficial
   information agency known for its extensive and detailed reporting on
   domestic and international issues)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
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   Commerce.

   157) Back to Top
   Putin Criticizes European Attitudes To Russian Food Market - Interfax
   Thursday June 23, 2011 15:30:50 GMT
   Rostov, 23 June: Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin believes that
   Europe's reaction to the ban on the import of vegetables to Russia
   demonstrated that the attitude of western producers to the Russian market
   is like "to their own territory".

   "The western producers themselves for many years became accustomed to
   considering the Russian foodstuffs market almost their home territory,
   where everything is allowed. An example is what is happening now with
   vegetables," Putin said in Rostov at the congress of the Russian Agrarian
   Movement.

   He noted that "our fair request for Russian safety legislation to be
   complied with immediately received an almost political interpretation".

   The prime minister said that it is very difficult for domestic producers
   to break through to international markets. "In many countries, first of
   all in EU states and the USA, there are such administrative barriers and
   such bureaucracy that we have never even dreamed of. In order to supply
   our produce, our enterprises have to collect a mass of certificates.
   Sometimes, this takes years," the prime minister complained.

   Putin said that Russia "is ready and will conduct dialogue with partners
   only on an equal basis: it will rigorously defend the interests of
   domestic consumers and producers".

   The prime minister called for the Foreign Ministry, the Ministry of
   Economic Development, the Agriculture Ministry and agricultural producers'
   trade associations to work more actively to promote Russian goods.

   "As for supporting export, we have something to learn from our foreign
   colleagues. They are not shy to defend the interests of their agricultural
   exporters at the very highest level - both ambassadors and ministers,"
   Putin noted.

   (Description of Source: Moscow Interfax in Russian -- Nonofficial
   information agency known for its extensive and detailed reporting on
   domestic and i nternational issues)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   158) Back to Top
   Lukashenko Doubts U.S.-russian AMD Deal Possible - Interfax
   Thursday June 23, 2011 14:47:17 GMT
   BREST. June 23 (Interfax) - Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko
   doubts that Russia and the United States will come to an agreement on
   European missile defense."We will see. Anyway, this will not add to
   stability and security on the European continent. The fact that the
   Americans are deploying an AMD system here and that they (the United
   States) have failed to reach an agreement with Russia is just fueling
   tension,&amp;quo t; Lukashenko told reporters during a working trip to the
   Brest region."Very intensive talks are now under way between the Russians
   and the Americans," he said, adding that the Russians hope that "common
   sense will prevail" and that "an agreement is possible"."But I don't
   believe in it," Lukashenko said."They will deploy their AMD system. I am
   sure that this is just the beginning. It (AMD) will expand and
   strengthen," he said.In this situation, "the Russians, and maybe we also,
   will have to react to this," Lukashenko said.Interfax-950215-AACIMCDO

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   Commerce.

   159) Back to Top
   Russia Seeks Coordinated D ialog on Missile Defense With U.S., NATO -
   Moscow - Interfax
   Thursday June 23, 2011 13:21:03 GMT
   MOSCOW. June 23 (Interfax) - The work on missile defense in Russia's
   dialog with the United States and NATO must be transparent and must not
   undermine the foundations of strategic stability, the Russian Foreign
   Ministry said."Deputy Director of the Foreign Ministry's Security and
   Disarmament Department Vladimir Leontyev said the work on missile defense
   in Russia's dialog with the U.S. and NATO should be well-coordinated and
   transparent, and it must not undermine the foundations of strategic
   stability," Collective Security Treaty Organization Secretary Vladimir
   Zainetdinov said on Thursday.Leontyev voiced this position on Thursday at
   a meeting of the CSTO's Permanent Council, which was attended by CSTO
   General Secretary Nikolai Bordyuzha, he said."The Russian side will deal
   wit h this issue in as open a way as possible and in strong coordination
   with the CSTO members and with their support," Leontyev said.The meeting
   also discussed a daft statement by the CSTO member states at a session of
   the organizing committee of the UN Conference in 2012 on problems related
   to the international treaty on arms trade, submitted by Belarus.A draft
   plan of consultations between the CSTO member states on foreign policy,
   security and defense for the second half of 2011 and the first half of
   2012 have been negotiated.Interfax-950215-AACIMARI

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   160) Back to Top
   Russian Strategic Bombers Complete 15 Hour Flight Off Aleutian Islands -
   RIA-N ovosti
   Thursday June 23, 2011 13:41:20 GMT
   Excerpt from report by Russian state news agency RIA Novosti

   Moscow, 23 June: Strategic missile carriers of the Russian Air Force have
   successfully completed air patrolling in the area of the Aleutian Islands
   with a total duration of nearly 15 hours; they were accompanied at one
   stage in the flight by F-15 fighters of the US Air Force, Russian Defence
   Ministry spokesman Vladimir Drik told RIA Novosti on Thursday (23 June).

   "Two Tu-95MS strategic missile-carrying bombers scrambled from the
   Ukrainka airbase have successfully completed their objectives in
   accordance with the air patrolling plan. The flight route lay through the
   neutral waters to the area of the Aleutian Islands," the spokesman told
   the agency. (Passage omitted: repetition)

   "The crews of the Tu-95MS practised the skills of flying over featureless
   location, and refuelled in the air from Il-78 tanker aircraft," Drik said.

   He said that Long-Range Aviation pilots carried out regular air patrol
   flights over the neutral waters of the Arctic, the Atlantic, the Black
   Sea, and the Pacific, from both base and tactical airfields.

   "All the flights of the aircraft of the Russian Air Force have been
   carried out in strict compliance with the international rules for the use
   of airspace over neutral waters, without violating state borders," Drik
   stressed.

   (Description of Source: Moscow RIA-Novosti in Russian -- Government
   information agency, part of the state media holding company; located at
   www.rian.ru)

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   Commerce.

   161) Back to Top&lt; /a&gt;
   Russian 'bears' Fly Patrol Mission Over Aleutians Shadowed By U.S. Jets -
   Interfax
   Thursday June 23, 2011 13:27:09 GMT
   MOSCOW. June 23 (Interfax-AVN) - Two Russian Tu-95MS strategic 'bear'
   bombers have completed patrol missions over the Aleutian Islands. At one
   point they were shadowed by two U.S. F-15 fighter jets, Colonel Vladimir
   Drik, the official spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry, has told
   Interfax-AVN."The Tu-95MS crews rehearsed flights over textureless area
   and mid-air refueling from Il-78 flying tankers. The mission totaled about
   15 hours," he said.The 'bears' took off from the Ukrainka air base for
   routine patrolling of neutral waters near the Aleutians and successfully
   fulfilled their tasks, Drik said."All flights by Russian Air Force planes
   are carried out and have been carried out in strict complia nce with
   international laws on the use of air space over neutral waters without
   intruding into other nations' air space," he said.Interfax-950215-AACIMAEG

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   162) Back to Top
   Russian Commentator Ponders President Obama's Reelection Chances
   Article by Nikolay Pakhomov: "Obama Will Try Not to Lose" - Politkom.ru
   Thursday June 23, 2011 13:21:03 GMT
   A couple of weeks ago the cover of the influential Economist magazine
   carried an illustration that reflects the current situation very
   accurately: While Republican candidates depicted as Liliputians fig ht
   frenziedly, Gulliver Obama soars above them thinking "and yet I could
   still lose...."

   The situation in America today is indeed worrying -- economic development
   has slowed sharply, the unemployment level is high, the gap between rich
   and poor is growing, the country is surrendering its global positions,
   immigration policy has clearly hit the buffers, and the growing state debt
   is making a state default increasingly likely. But for all this we should
   not expect the election campaign to be a competition between formulas for
   rescuing the country from the crisis in all areas. The Republicans simply
   do not need it -- the population's dissatisfaction is so great that just
   criticizing Obama is sufficient. The president, however, appears to be
   starting to experience a shortage of ideas to revive the economic
   situation, and at the end of the day even his political qualities will not
   be sufficient if a frank discussion about the country's problems was to
   begin wi th the Republicans -- in that case both parties would have to
   acknowledge overly unpleasant things.

   Obama does not need to try to defend his position in the primaries. Even
   very recently journalists and experts were wondering whether somebody
   might challenge the president from a more "leftist" position. The
   dissatisfaction with Obama among the radical (by American standards)
   liberal section of the public and electorate is indeed great:
   Representatives of these circles reckoned that the convincing win for
   Obama and the Democrats in the 2008 congressional elections created all
   the opportunities for the comprehensive implementation of the liberals'
   program. The president showed himself to be a pragmatist -- he openly
   abandoned many parts of his program (for example, the prison at Guantanamo
   base continues to operate), carried out some things (the ban on gays
   serving in the Army was abolished), and carried out some things in a
   highly curtailed form (the refo rm of the medical insurance system)
   depending on the demands of the current political moment and remembering
   the need to get reelected.

   Moreover, some steps by the Obama administration would also be logical for
   any Republican demonstration. One can recall the increase in the size of
   the contingent in Afghanistan and -- something that is particularly
   galling to the "Left" -- the retention of the tax breaks adopted under
   Bush Junior. Obama's campaign staff has plenty of top-level professionals
   who understand all these problems. Thus all the indications are that the
   president's campaign will be conducted primarily around his personality;
   slogans about the need for unity (again around the president) among
   Americans in the face of the numerous problems can also be expected.

   Initially Obama's supporters attempted to employ the tactic that "the
   situation is serious, but it would be even worse if it had not been for
   the president's actions," but they quickly realized that such hypothetical
   flights of fancy do not convince the voters at all. In the next half year
   or so the Republican candidates and the experts working for them will
   attempt to do everything to exploit this mood of protest, which they
   previously succeeded in doing during last year's congressional elections.
   Whoever wins next year's election will have to answer the difficult
   questions that American society has today encountered. Popu lism and
   winning an election for the sake of winning the next election are no
   longer sufficient; it is harder and harder not to notice the crisis
   phenomena. From this viewpoint, Obama could acquire a good chance of
   implementing the requisite reforms -- a second and, in accordance with
   American tradition, final term of office would give him the opportunity to
   forget both pre-election landscapes and ratings.

   (Description of Source: Moscow Politkom.ru in Russian -- Website created
   by the independent Political Techno logies Center featuring insightful
   political commentary that is sometimes critical of the government; URL:
   http://politcom.ru/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   163) Back to Top
   On Threats of a New Biological Weapon and the Biosecurity of Russia
   Refiled removing issue no. and date from source name, adding source
   descriptor and city; On Threats of a New Biological Weapon and the
   Biosecurity of Russia by Yu. A. Bobylov, Kachestvennaya Klinicheskaya
   Praktika No 3, 2008 pp 94-99. http://www.clinvest.ru/part.php?pid=154 . -
   Kachestvennaya Klinicheskaya Praktika Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 13:27:08 GMT
   http://www.clinvest.ru/part.php?pid=154
   http://www.clinvest.ru/part.php?pid=154.

   Insuring the national security and defense of Russia has its own secret
   scientific component; consequently, such customers as the Ministry of
   Defense (and its main intelligence agencies) and the Federal Security
   Service of Russia are directly connected to this problem. This pertains to
   medical-biological programs currently being implemented. It should also be
   noted that in fundamental and applied science there are always projects in
   a new scientific area outside the formal plan. Frequently these projects
   are "elite" projects closed to any type of external monitoring. It is
   understood that at the sources of possible world biological diversions
   there may be not only secret criminal groups, but also the special forces
   of a number of "unfriendly" governments. 1. Preconditions for the
   deployment of a secret biological war

   The overall world political an d military situation in the world is
   becoming severely strained. Russia is no longer capable of world
   leadership in the military realm. However, no substantial changes have
   occurred in the confrontation of the great countries of the world and
   their competition for mastery of resources for economic development. The
   policies of the US, the European Union, China, and others are mainly
   oriented toward achieving world supremacy and the large-scale use of their
   armed forces for their goals.

   According to the data of ARMS-TASS, world military expenditures in 2007
   were 1.066 trillion US dollars. Compared to 2000, world military
   expenditures increased by nearly a factor of two (then they were 597
   billion US dollars in current prices). American expenditures in 2007
   reached the 545.8 billion dollar mark. North America leads regions of the
   world in this criterion due to US spending. After this, in terms of the
   level of military expenditures, follows Western Europe at 182.2 billion US
   dollars. In third place is the Asian-Pacific region at 175.3 billion US
   dollars. The Near East spends 42.7 billion dollars annually for military
   purposes, the countries of the former Soviet Union spend 37.7 billion,
   Latin America spends 29.1 billion, and Africa spends 18.3 billion. The
   most modest military expenditures are found in Eastern Europe: 17.3
   billion dollars.

   According to official US State Department information (from the beginning
   of 2006) regarding fulfillment of the treaty "On the Reduction of
   Strategic Offensive Weapons," on 1 January 2006 the weapons of the Russian
   nuclear triad, the Strategic Rocket Forces, the Navy, and the Air Force,
   held 4,399 nuclear warheads, and for the US this number reaches 5,966. The
   US surpasses Russia in the number of launch devices: 1,225 as opposed to
   1,033. Consequently, a possible nuclear war between the US and Russia, as
   well as China, does not make sense for a number of reasons:

   1. la rge-scale nuclear war leads to a planetary "nuclear winter";

   2. in a local war, at least before 2015, the US in a preventive strike
   still risks receiving in response from Russia or China "unacceptable
   economic damage";

   3. world scientific and technical progress in a number of new areas,
   especially in biological science, makes a "nontraditional" war against the
   rest of the world, including Russia, expedient.

   The survival of a number of developed countries of the world, obviously,
   is not just the "problem" of diplomats and ecologists, but the responsible
   mission of a "new type" of politician, the military, and special forces of
   such countries. In the battle for the world and the survival of developed
   countries, the winner is the one who creates effective and "highly
   accurate" military equipment and whose increase in military strength is
   based on the newest breakthroughs in fundamental and applied science, who
   can manage to substant ially break away from the other countries of the
   world that incorrectly evaluated the course of the scientific and
   technical revolution, and who today is switching to a mobilization policy
   in the implementation of strategically important programs and projects. In
   this regard, the role of a new biological weapon is being re-evaluated,
   especially one which has come to be called a "genetic bomb."

   What is new for current military thinking is a shift in the paradigm of
   the contemporary war. The most important goal has become the conquest of
   new living spaces (countries, regions, and even continents) and the
   large-scale use of new (non-nuclear) types of weapons of mass destruction.
   In this regard this would seem to repeat the epoch of colonization of the
   sixteenth to eighteenth centuries. The appearance of new planetary threats
   and the deficit that is arising of vitally important resources for
   economic development (for exam ple, energy, fresh water, ecologically pure
   food products, etc.) changes the priorities in the developments of current
   weaponry and military equipment. An important feature of the rapid wars of
   the future is their "contactless character." In the majority of cases the
   armed forces will be at a great spatial distance from the defeated
   opponent. The clearest example of this is fast "geophysical" wars, for
   example, with the use of American HAARP to create a drought, hurricanes,
   tsunamis, etc. Under these conditions the military and special forces are
   beginning to re-examine their attitude toward biological warfare. 2. The
   ethics of war

   Various approaches by our scientists to the evaluation of the expediency
   and effectiveness of creating a biological weapon should be noted. The
   chemist and human rights activist L. Federov thinks that the creation of
   this type of weapon (as well as chemical weapons) is a "very bad thing"
   and thus "di sarmament" would be better. V. Ovchinskiy, a legal expert and
   professor from the Ministry of Internal Affairs, is troubled by the
   threats of bioterrorism and is calling for the development of a
   legislative foundation and collaboration with Interpol. The position of
   the author of this article is this: a biological war (like any other war)
   has its own historical, geopolitical, and economic causes. Traditionally
   the goal of possible large-scale biological warfare is achieving the
   greatest results at minimum expense ("cost-benefit", "cost effectiveness"
   type decision-making models). Today's military engineering thinking is
   working toward the development, production, and use of a "high-accuracy
   weapon", including one with a high damaging capacity to achieve the given
   goals of transition to "stable development."

   Let us try to provide an adequate geopolitical evaluation of the world's
   and Russia's military technology and feat ures of its use in modern
   warfare.

   A. A weapon based on mechanical principles (small arms, planes, tanks,
   ships, submarines, etc), are difficult to associate with weapons of mass
   destruction, including a new generation of biological weapons based on
   genetic engineering. On the face of it the presence of a limit to the
   power of such mechanical weapons, even with increased accuracy, places
   additional demands on the "mechanical."

   B. Chemical and toxin weaponry is not selective, is difficult to control,
   and is the least effective. It is no accident that doctor of chemical
   sciences L. A. Fedorov has no great love for this type of weapon. However,
   testing in Russia in summer 2007 of a chemical "vacuum bomb" with a large
   damaging capacity with the use of nanotechnology has great military
   prospects and has entered the arsenal of the Ministry of Defense of
   Russia.

   C. World history over the last few decades has shown the poor suitability
   of atomic and nuclear weapons to conduct many military actions. The main
   drawback of this destructive weapon (even one that is not very powerful)
   is total destruction and prolonged contamination of the human environment
   with dangerous radioactive substances. The m ost modern designs of this
   type of weapon ("neutron" and "positron" bombs) still are experimental in
   nature. It is important that politicians and the military justifiably fear
   the destructive consequences of their widespread use.

   D. Considering crisis-level planetary problems and the exhaustion of
   resources for world development, a new biological genetically-engineered
   weapon moves to the forefront. In essence it is a "high-accuracy weapon."
   The essence of rapid fundamental innovations in the military realm is
   this: discoveries that have already been made in biology and genetics,
   operating on a new technological basis, make it possible to destroy the
   personnel of a potenti al enemy depending on the color of their skin and a
   number of other characteristic indicators of human race and major
   ethnicities. 3. The increasing biological threat to the world and Russia
   from the US, which is the leader in the area of molecular biology and
   medicine

   Let us turn to the results of scientific and technical progress in 2007.

   In the opinion of Donald Kennedy, the editor-in-chief of the journal
   Science (USA), the most important achievements in natural science in the
   past year belong to biology, mainly studies of the human genome. Published
   results of a number of researchers indicate that there are many more
   differences (up to 0.5%) between the genomes of representatives of
   different populations and between the genomes of individuals than
   previously thought (0.1%) (Ref. 1). Science has developed in such a way
   that all new technologies, biotechnology included, in essence have a dual
   purpose. The same genetic engineering methods which make it pos sible to
   create medicines may be used to create weapons. Primarily this refers to
   the development of a biological weapon. Of particular scientific interest
   is a biological weapon which could be ethnically targeted and could even
   knock out even individual groups in populations (for example, depending on
   sex, age, various anthropological indicators which could by determined by
   analysis of DNA structure that stores the genetic code, by the color of
   the skin, the slant of the eyes). The new Proteome Project to decipher and
   study the purpose and interaction of proteins is no less complex than the
   Human Genome project, and opens the way to an absolute weapon. In this
   regard the noted Russian criminologist and doctor of juridical sciences V.
   Ovchinskiy recently gave a completely "black" prediction of new biological
   threats: "the possibility in any given time period, from several hours to
   dozens of years, of destroying in a planned manner any human population wi
   th given key genetic indicators, without fearing a possible responsive
   strike." (Ref. 2).

   According to the definition of V. I. Yevstigneyev, a candidate of medical
   sciences and general-lieutenant of the medical service (retired) and one
   of the directors of the Biopreparat open-type joint stock company, "A
   genetic weapon is a variety of biological weapon whose damaging effect is
   based on the use of properties of genetically modified microorganisms or
   specially constructed molecules of nucleic acid."

   The Scientific Research Institute of Medical Genetics of the Tomsk Science
   Center of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences
   conducted genotyping of DNA samples of patients using nine gene markers
   associated with tuberculosis. The research showed that Tyvans and Russians
   differed in all studied gene markers except one. The gene variant
   (SLC11A1*543N) in Tyvans was encountered with a frequency of 0.139, which
   is much higher than in any of the studied populations of the world. For
   comparison, in Columbians it is 0.052, in Chinese it is 0.019, and in
   Bashkirs it is 0.000. This high level of distribution of the pathological
   form of the gene in Tyva may be the cause of the high frequency of
   tuberculosis. 4. A New Type of War

   A new stage in the development of civilization on Earth poses the question
   of a new type of war.

   Ach ievements in the area of military biology are closely guarded deep
   secrets because the use of dangerous biological preparations is frequently
   based on special operations and secret diversions. Periodically new
   previously secret facts become known, which force us again to think about
   the past, present, and future of ongoing scientific and technical progress
   in this direction. Here is the text of one of these reports on how the CIA
   evaluates the threats of a fundamentally new biological weapon (Ref. 3):
   "In a private seminar conducted on the initiative of the CIA American
   scientists warned the government that a fundamentally new biological
   weapon would soon appear on Earth." As the CIA document reports, "the
   effects of artificial viruses and bacteria could exceed in severity any
   currently known disease." According to the predictions of American
   scientists, such pathogens will appear in the next ten years. The new
   biological weapon will be able to act very selectively, destroying only
   people with a certain genetic code. Moreover, the capability will appear
   of creating "delayed effect" viruses. For example, as the document states,
   when it infects a person only cold symptoms will appear, and in
   interaction with certain drugs death will occur. Different types of
   bacteriological weapons will counteract all types of antibiotics and cause
   a lethal reaction of the immune system. In addition to this, as the
   scientists stated, new viruses and bacteria will not be able to be
   detected using traditional methods ." (Translator's note: the closing
   quotation mark appears in the source text, but not the opening quotation
   mark.)

   The presented information was discussed by Russian experts.

   As another example from past Soviet practice one can note the facts
   presented in the book by doctor of chemical sciences L. A. Fedorov, Soviet
   Biological Weapons: History, Ecology, Policy (Moscow, 2006 309 pp.). In
   section 2.2.2 of this book (pp 59-62) there are, for example, data on the
   activity of a secret military biological center of the Ministry of Defense
   of the USSR, the former 15th Administration of the General Staff with the
   provisional name "Sverdlovsk-19." It was at this facility that such
   "generals of biological warfare" as P. Burgasov, V. Yevstigneyev, V.
   Mikhaylov, V. Ogarkov, and A. Kharechko worked. Now it is the Center for
   Military-Technical Problems in Anti-Bacteriological Defense of the
   Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, which has at its disposal
   vast special underground production facilities for dangerous biological
   preparations. In April-May 1979 due to a mistake in the provision of
   safety of military-biological operations, Sverdlovsk-19 became a source of
   massive death for residents of the city. A strain of the pulmonary anthrax
   bacteria infected mainly adult men. In the opinion of a number of experts,
   this already was a biological weapon of a new genetic-molecular
   generation:

   it infected mainly men;death to people who swallowed the lethal aerosol
   occurred, in essence, instantaneously;the disease could not be treated;the
   disease was not spread from person to person ("dead-end infection").

   Unfortunately, Soviet biologists were late in creating a therapeutic
   vaccine, which lead to many human victims.

   Later information appeared that the primary secret strain was obtained by
   Soviet intelligence in African racist South Africa. In the version
   allegedly told several year s ago by former minister of health of the USSR
   P. Burgasov, this was a biological diversion of the US special forces,
   because four species of the detected virus were not Russian, but of
   different origin (Israel and Canada). The terrorist act was planned. In
   1992 the 15th Administration of the General Staff, the last director of
   which was General V. I. Yevstigneyev (now one of the directors of the
   Biopreparat open-type joint stock company), was abolished, and part of the
   structure was poured into the general system of chemical, radiatio n, and
   biological defense forces. Now many military personnel and biologists of
   the Russian Federation have acknowledged the haste and error of this
   decision. 5. International aspects and monitoring of biological threats

   According to data from the press, the main routes of infection by
   bioterrorists are distribution:

   through the air - 17%via drinking water - 11%via food - 15%via injections
   - 13%via medicines - 16%via other ch annels - 28% (Ref. 4).

   Not just any pathogenic microorganism is a military biological agent, only
   microbes or viruses that have a whole host of properties and that have
   been selected for the purpose of bacteriological warfare or terrorist
   acts. It is important to understand the difference between terrorist
   biological preparations used for single terrorist acts by individuals or a
   group of individuals and biological weapons. Lethal biological
   preparations or toxins may be considered a biological weapon if they:

   were developed and produced by special military (defense) order;have
   sufficient military effectiveness andwere specially selected and may be
   delivered for a specific biological attack.

   In faraway 1972 the international "Convention on the Prohibition of the
   Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological)
   and Toxin Weapons and on Their Destruction" was adopted. To date the
   convention has been signed by 144 countri es, of which 18 have not
   ratified the document. Since 1996 a special group of states-parties to the
   convention has been in operation to develop a supplemental document and
   corrections to the convention.

   The development of biological weapons is still continuing. In part, these
   developments have the character of "dual technologies," important, for
   example, in the search for new drugs to treat dangerous diseases such as
   AIDS. Russian experts have noted the unwillingness of the US to halt work
   in this area or to introduce special international monitoring of this
   scientific research and development work. One could focus attention on the
   increased funding in the US of fundamental and applied biological science
   by the Department of Defense and the Department of Energy of the US, which
   makes it possible for a number of major Russian military biologists to
   make extremely pessimistic predictions. In a number of areas the
   "quantity" of discoveries and in ventions in the US and, apparently,
   China, has already shifted into a new "military-biological quality."

   The appearance of a racial biological weapon is the greatest revolutionary
   shift in the strategy of large-scale military operations.

   According to the "binary" principle secret military agents in the form of
   various foods and non-food goods could be used in biological diversions in
   this order: first, one biological preparation, and then after a long
   interval of time (up to 1-3 years) another biological preparation, which
   would go into biological (biophysical, biochemical, etc.) interaction with
   the previously used substance. On this basis a third lethal biological
   preparation arises in the human body.

   In the years to come the role of national special forces to conduct secret
   operations of a biological character in the territory of a potential enemy
   will increase sharply, but these special forces will be called upon
   simultaneously to take protective measures as well.

   Biological terrorism is less dangerous than secret military biological
   diversions. In general the main properties of the increase in the
   biological threat in the world may be schematically characterized as
   follows (Table 1). Table 1. World science, high-tech terrorism, and the
   fight against it

   Acting individuals

   Tasks im plemented

   1. Those who order special studies and developments (politicians, special
   forces, the military)

   Organization of fundamental and applied research (including in the
   interest of preserving national security)

   2. Secret specialized scientific laboratories

   Scientific discoveries and inventions, first experimental models for
   practical use

   3. Large commercial companies that produce civilian products

   Direct or indirect conversion use of the results of secret scientific
   research and development for humanitarian civilian purposes

   4. Those who order terrorist acts (ideological or mafia foreign
   governments and international criminal groups)

   Acquisition of special geopolitical advantages or major economic
   advantages with the goal of their own national or corporate success

   5. Researchers and developers of high-tech terrorist acts

   Secret theft or enterprising creation of an intellectual product for
   direct or modified terrorist activity

   6. Highly-skilled terrorists carrying out the act

   Transportation and use of special equipment, technologies, or materials
   (including those with biological activity)

   7. Police and national special intelligence and counterintelligence forces

   Execution of various types of special operations, including for defensive
   prophylactic or offensive preventive purposes

   8. Military-biological and diplomatic ministries and departments

   Consultations, development, and adoption of international, regional, and
   national documents (agreements, co nventions, laws, etc.), organization of
   monitoring and control in the area of biology and medicine with a "dual
   purpose."

   9. Futurologists, political scientists, and sociologists

   Development of a new model of the world social order and new morals in the
   framework of stable development and preservation of the environment.

   Overall Europe lags behind the US in the area of biotechnology and there
   is a large question as to whether the US will open its protective
   "bioterrorist umbrella" over greater Europe in the case of possible racial
   (ethnic) bio-attacks by a number of "yellow" Arab countries and terrorist
   groups, as well as China and Japan. 6. Internal Russian problems

   The situation in Russia requires "mobilization actions," including on the
   part of the scientific medical-biological community.

   According to the evaluation of a number of informed experts, including the
   Biopreparat open-type joint stock company, the situation in Russia
   regarding the level of provision of biological security to the population
   of Russia is "critical." In November 2007 the leadership of the Russian
   Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs made a special appeal to the
   government of Russia. Nearly 80% of the medicines used in Russia are
   imported from abroad. Experts spoke of the "threat to national biological
   security": if as a result of some event Russia is cut off from the
   producers of drugs, including "vitally essential" drugs, we are in no
   condition to compensate for them. In 2006 there were 560 pharmaceutical
   producers in operation in the country, but the majority of the large
   pharmaceutical factories are controlled by foreign investors. Domestic
   enterprises are mainly packaging plants, producing one type of product,
   frequently outdated by a decade, with a low therapeutic effect (Ref. 5).
   The medical and pharmacological programs of Russia that have been adopted
   are not capable of achieving the necessary results by 2015.

   The predicted geopolitical and military threats are of an "invisible
   nature," unusual even to the experience and understanding of secret
   physicists, biologists, and engineers of the military industrial complex,
   and informed highly-placed intelligence and counterintelligence personnel
   of the Russian Federation. But diagnosis of the problems of national
   security and decision making is a simpler matter than solving them in the
   real world. The situation in the world is reminiscent of the "atomic" era
   of the late 1940s and early 1950s.

   One could present "breakthrough" examples of the creation of new special
   equipment in the US.

   In 2007 the Massachusetts Institute of Technology developed a new device
   to detect pathogens in air samples (Ref. 6). The new device was called
   PANTHER (for Pathogen Notification for Threatening Environmental
   Releases). The device us ed CANARY technology (Cellular Analysis and
   Notification of Antigen Risks and Yields), patented by the inventors in
   2003. It uses the emission of photons by specific B-lymphocytes in contact
   with a target pathogen. The created model detects 24 different pathogens,
   including the pathogens of anthrax, plague, smallpox, and tularemia. The
   analysis time is only three minutes, compared to 20 minutes in devices
   that use immune analysis or PCR. The device is in a case about 80 cubic
   decimeters in volume, weighs 18.5 kg, and is intended for stationary
   installation at locations where large numbers of people gather. A license
   to produce the device was obtained in January 2008 by Innovative
   Biosensors, Inc. (IBI) of Rockville, MD and is sold under the name
   BioFlash. Other known technical developments

   In the near future a new military-industrial and geopolitical strategy
   will take shape for Russia that requires the next asymmetrical response. A
   great deal has been written a bout this, not only in my articles in the
   journal Mir I Bezopastnost (No 2, 2006 and No 4, 2008), but also in other
   publications (Voyenno-Promyshlennyy Kuryer, Nezavisimoye Voyennoye
   Obozreniye, Rossiyskoye Voyennoye Obozreniye and others, as well as the
   monograph " Geneticheskaya Bomba. Taynyye Stsenarii Bioterrorizma (The
   Genetic Bomb. Secret Scenarios of Bioterrorism ), Moscow: Belyye Alvy,
   2006 and 2008).

   In my view, one should not overestimate measures of possible international
   collaboration to reduce the threat of bioterrorism. The reproach directed
   at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia is understandable. At the
   same time it is important to have an effective protective national policy
   in this area. The active development of research and development in the
   area of molecular biology and medicine is especially important for Russia,
   and is also in the interests of the Ministry of Defense of Russia and the
   special forces. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDAT IONS

   1. The main conclusion from the analysis that has been done: Russia should
   re-examine its relationship to participation in the corresponding
   Convention on the Prohibition of the Development of Biological Weapons
   (1972).

   As noted in the corresponding articles and reports, in recent years a
   significant number of international conventions, declarations, and
   resolutions have been adopted directed at reducing biological and
   biotechnological threats to civilization.

   New world conditions require new international documents. A good example
   of a new and more suitable behavior of Russia in the military realm is the
   introduction on 12 December 2007 of a moratorium on the participation of
   Russia in the European agreement with NATO unde r the acronym DOVSE. The
   Russian Federation officially exited from the agreement, which was signed
   in 1990 with the purpose of increasing the military might of NATO at the
   western borders of Russia. We were prepared to conti nue negotiations but
   with new security principles for Russia. It is possible that Russia may
   even exit from the acting international "Convention on the Prohibition of
   the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological
   (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on Their Destruction" (1972).

   Russia has significantly reduced its military-biological potential. There
   are also visible difficulties in providing the defense of the country's
   biosecurity in the face of new major scientific achievements of the US and
   the NATO member states, as well as China. After 1972 the geopolitical and
   military-technical situation in the world changed fundamentally, which for
   many reasons makes the corresponding convention a "military-biological
   utopia."

   It seems that a new international convention should have as its main goal
   not military aspects, but only an intensified fight against world
   bioterrorism with more active participation of national special for ces.

   2. Another important strategic conclusion: Russia needs accelerated
   development of biology, medicine, and biotechnology, and the Russian
   high-tech military-industrial complex should acquire a new
   "biologicalized" look. A number of new areas of fundamental and applied
   biological science should be refined to which Russia should direct major
   financial resources (in the strategy of "asymmetrical" defensive
   response). The convention for the provision of the biosecurity of Russia
   must be refined. It would be expedient to create a Federal Agency for
   Biotechnology, a large subdepartmental government state corporation (like
   Rusnanotech), as well as an All-Russian Scientific Research Institute of
   Biological Security of the Federal Security Service of Russia.

   There is an obvious need to mobilize "defensive" self-consciousness of
   Russian scientists themselves.

   3. Finally, emphasis must be placed on the need to restructure the
   government control of the economy of Russia and its scientific and
   technical progress. Ahead is a strong political and defensive centralism,
   a number of measures for mobilization economic policy. Experts on national
   security are right to expect new capital-intensive defense decisions from
   a reformed Russian government. References

   http://www.bio.su/page.php?id=9 http://www.bio.su/page.php?id=9

   http://www.bio.su/page.php?id=168 http://www.bio.su/page.php?id=168
   Korrespondent.net

   , 17 November 2003, 14:55L. P. Zhiganova, "Bioterrorism and Agroterrorism-
   A Real Threat to the Security of Society" in SShA I Kanada: Ekonomika,
   Politika, Kultura No 9, 2004.

   http://www.bio.su/page.php?id=316 http://www.bio.su/page.php?id=316.

   http://www.bio.su/page.php?id=138 http://www.bio.su/page.php?id=138.

   CEP/ST/BIO

   (Description of Source: Moscow Kachestvennaya Klinicheskaya Praktika
   Online in Russian -- Website of bimonthly clinical pharmacology journal;
   URL: http://www.clinvest.ru/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   164) Back to Top
   Palestinian Leadership Will Decide Whether to Apply to UN For Recognition
   By Fall - Diplomat - Interfax
   Thursday June 23, 2011 10:11:25 GMT
   fall - diplomat

   MOSCOW. June 23 (Interfax) - The Palestinian leadership will make a final
   decision on whether to apply to the UN for the recognition of an
   independent Palestinian state closer to September, Palestinian Ambassador
   to Moscow Faed Mustafa told Interfax."We can say that this decision is
   final after we submit relevant documents to the UN," Mustafa said."It is
   the Palestinian leadership that will formulate the final position, and
   this will happen closer to September," he said.An appeal to the UN General
   Assembly to recognize the Palestinian state so far remains "the principal
   direction of our movement," Mustafa said. "At the same time, we are
   continuing contacts on this issue with the Quartet of international
   mediators (Russia, the U.S., the EU, and the UN), our brotherly Arab
   states, and all countries that are friendly to us," he said.Asked what
   could change the Palestinian side's position, the ambassador replied, "The
   convention of a Quartet meeting is being discussed now. We are expecting
   results from this meeting.""We hope that the international community and
   the Quartet, which understand how dangerous the current political period
   is, will put pressure on Israel so that we can return to the negotiating
   table," Mustafa said.Palestine "does not want negotiations for the sake of
   negotiations," Mustafa said. "Our alternative is negotiations. But, since
   the Israelis are rejecting the fundamental principles of these
   negotiations, the international community should do something," he
   said."There is progress in this issue," Mustafa said. "France plans to
   arrange an international conference in Paris. Russia is actively working
   within the Quartet framework. The U.S. is also making efforts. We are
   waiting for results of this work," he said.A ministerial Quartet meeting
   is planned in Washington on July, he said."We expect the Quartet to make a
   statement determining key principles on which Palestinian-Israeli talks
   should be based and formulate what each party should do," he said."We also
   expect the Quartet to make a statement that the ultimate goal of the
   negotiations will be the establishment of a Palestinian state within the
   1967 borders with the capital in Jerusalem,&amp;qu ot; he said.In addition,
   "the Israelis should stop their settlement activities," he
   said.Palestine's appeal to the UN for the recognition of an independent
   state "is not aimed at isolating Israel," he said."If the Palestinian
   state is recognized and admitted to the UN, negotiations with Israel
   should continue," Mustafa said. "We do not see any controversy here," he
   said.Interfax-950215-AACILXHZ

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   165) Back to Top
   Palestinian Leadership Will Decide Whether to Apply to UN For Recognition
   By Fall - Diplomat (Part 2) - Interfax
   Thursday June 23, 2011 09:55:10 GMT
   fall - diplomat (Part 2)

   MOSCOW. June 23 (Interfax) - The Palestinian leadership will make a final
   decision on whether to apply to the UN for the recognition of an
   independent Palestinian state closer to September, Palestinian Ambassador
   to Moscow Faed Mustafa told Interfax."We can say that this decision is
   final after we submit relevant documents to the UN," Mustafa said."It is
   the Palestinian leadership that will formulate the final position, and
   this will happen closer to September," he said.An appeal to the UN General
   Assembly to recognize the Palestinian state so far remains "the principal
   direction of our movement," Mustafa said. "At the same time, we are
   continuing contacts on this issue with the Quartet of international
   mediators (Russia, the U.S., the EU, and the UN), our brotherly Arab
   states, and all countries that are friendly to us," he said.Asked what
   could change the Palestini an side's position, the ambassador replied,
   "The convention of a Quartet meeting is being discussed now. We are
   expecting results from this meeting.""We hope that the international
   community and the Quartet, which understand how dangerous the current
   political period is, will put pressure on Israel so that we can return to
   the negotiating table," Mustafa said.Palestine "does not want negotiations
   for the sake of negotiations," Mustafa said. "Our alternative is
   negotiations. But, since the Israelis are rejecting the fundamental
   principles of these negotiations, the international community should do
   something," he said."There is progress in this issue," Mustafa said.
   "France plans to arrange an international conference in Paris. Russia is
   actively working within the Quartet framework. The U.S. is also making
   efforts. We are waiting for results of this work," he said.A ministerial
   Quartet meeting is planned in Washingt on on July, he said."We expect the
   Quartet to make a statement determining key principles on which
   Palestinian-Israeli talks should be based and formulate what each party
   should do," he said."We also expect the Quartet to make a statement that
   the ultimate goal of the negotiations will be the establishment of a
   Palestinian state within the 1967 borders with the capital in Jerusalem,"
   he said.In addition, "the Israelis should stop their settlement
   activities," he said.Palestine's appeal to the UN for the recognition of
   an independent state "is not aimed at isolating Israel," he said."If the
   Palestinian state is recognized and admitted to the UN, negotiations with
   Israel should continue," Mustafa said. "We do not see any controversy
   here," he said.va jv(Our editorial staff can be reached at
   eng.editors@interfax.ru)Interfax-950040-AACILUYY

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the sou
   rce cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holder.
   Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.

   166) Back to Top
   Vote Monitors Await Russia's Nod - The Moscow Times Online
   Thursday June 23, 2011 07:47:04 GMT
   PAGE:

   http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/vote-monitors-await-russias-nod/439355.html
   http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/vote-monitors-await-r
   ussias-nod/439355.html

   )TITLE: Vote Monitors Await Russia's NodSECTION: NewsAUTHOR: By Nikolaus
   von TwickelPUBDATE: 23 June 2011(The Moscow Times.com) -

   Europe's top elections watchdog hopes to send several hundred observers to
   monitor the State Duma elections, but the Central Elections Commission has
   yet to respond to a request to send a fact-finding m ission in August.

   If the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe gets its way,
   it will be the first time since 2004 that a significant number of European
   and North American observers are present at a major election in Russia.

   The government's response will also send a strong signal about its
   readiness to let outsiders monitor elections on a larger scale.

   The 2007 Duma elections and the 2008 presidential vote were marred by
   scandal when the OSCE canceled its main observer missions, saying that
   Moscow had imposed "unacceptable restrictions."

   The few Western observers who did monitor those votes said afterward that
   they failed to meet democratic standards.

   Janez Lenarcic, director of the OSCE's Warsaw-based Office for Democratic
   Institutions and Human Rights, has asked elections commission chairman
   Vladimir Churov to let a small expert team into the country in mid-August.

   The group of up to four experts would reass ess conditions for an
   observation mission for the Duma vote in December, Lenarcic wrote in a
   letter to Churov, which was dated June 15 and published on the
   commission's web site Wednesday.

   Commission spokeswoman Anna Fomenkova refused to say Wednesday if and when
   an official invitation would be made for the expert team.

   Lenarcic said in the letter that he could not make a clear estimate on the
   size and format of the proposed observer mission for the elections, but he
   noted that the last such assessment in 2003 had recommended sending 460
   observers, 60 of them long-term.

   OSCE spokesman Jens Hagen Eschenbacher told The Moscow Times that the
   organization would make a formal decision on sending monitors only after
   hearing the fact-finding mission's report.

   Eschenbacher also said the organization would then discuss the elections
   commission's rules for international observers.

   The new rules, which were published earlier this month, prohibit obser
   vers from making any public comments before the vote is finished.

   Over the past few years, Moscow has consistently tried to reduce the
   number of Western observers. In 2007, the commission limited the OSCE
   mission to 70 short-term observers, no long-term observers and 30 members
   of the organization's Parliamentary Assembly. Moscow also refused to allow
   more than 400 observers in total, a figure that it called "common for
   civilized states."

   Rights groups say the figures were far from sufficient to monitor 95,000
   polling stations across Russia.

   As an OSCE member, Russia is bound by a 1990 treaty to invite election
   observers. But it is alone among the organization's 56 members, which
   include all former Soviet states, most European countries and the United
   States and Canada, to impose any restrictions.

   The Kremlin has long criticized the OSCE's human rights activities and in
   2007, then-President Vladimir Putin infamously denounced the organiz ation
   as "a vulgar instrument" designed to promote the foreign policy interests
   of one country, presumably the United States.

   (Description of Source: Moscow The Moscow Times Online in English --
   Website of daily English-language paper owned by the Finnish company
   International Media and often critical of the government; URL:
   http://www.themoscowtimes.com/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   167) Back to Top
   U.S. ATTEMPTS TO QUESTION RUSSIA'S SOVEREIGNTY OVER KURIL ISLANDS ARE
   INAPPROPRIATE; U.S. SHOULD NOT INTERFERE IN DIALOGUE BETWEEN MOSCOW, TOKYO
   - RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY - Interfax
   Thursday June 23, 2011 07:47:05 GMT
   INAPPROPRIATE; U.S. SHOULD NOT INTERFERE IN DIALOGUE BETWEEN MOSCOW, TOKYO
   - RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY

   Interfax-950040-AACILUWB

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   168) Back to Top
   Trading on MICEX Opens With Quotation Losses, Down 0.6% in First Minute -
   Interfax
   Thursday June 23, 2011 06:54:35 GMT
   MOSCOW. June 23 (Interfax) - Stock trading on the MICEX Stock Exchange
   opened on Thursday with losses for blue chips owing to the decline posted
   on world stock exchanges and commodities markets following news from the
   U.S. Federal Reserve System. The MICEX Stock Exchange went down by 0.6% in
   the first minute of trades.By 10:31 am Moscow time, the MICEX Index had
   decreased by 0.64% to 1,629.57 points and RTS Index - down 0.9% to 1,860.6
   points. The majority of benchmark stocks fell within 1.2%.Posting losses
   on the MICEX were shares in VTB (RTS: VTBR), down 1%, Gazprom (RTS: GAZP)
   - 0.9%, Gazprom Neft (RTS: SIBN) - 1.2%, Lukoil (RTS: LKOH) - 0.6%,
   NOVATEK (RTS: NVTK) - 0.8%, MMC Norilsk Nickel (RTS: GMKN) - 0.5%, Polyus
   Gold (RTS: PLZL) - 1%, Rosneft (RTS: ROSN) - 0.9%, Rostelecom (RTS: RTKM)
   - 0.6%, Sberbank (RTS: SBER) - 0.9%, Tatneft (RTS: TATN) - 0.7% and
   Federal Grid Co (RTS: FEES) - 0.9%.Ih(Our editorial staff can be reached
   at eng.editors@interfax.ru)Interfax-950140-AACILUBR

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   &lt; br&gt;
</description>
    <date>2011-06-24 16:53:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/814122_usa-united-states-americas-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mailto:translations@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>translations@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>dialogbot@smtp.stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>817740</id>
    <title>BRA/BRAZIL/AMERICAS
</title>
    <description>   Table of Contents for Brazil

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   1) NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 112 (June 24, 2010) -- TOPIC OF THE WEEK (1
   of 6)
   Yonhap headline: "NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 112 (June 24, 2010)"
   2) Brazil Economic Issues 23 Jun 10
   3) China, Portuguese-Speaking Countries Explore Trade Opportunities
   Xinhua: "China, Portuguese-Speaking Countries Explore Trade Opportunities"
   4) Brazil Crime and Narcotics Issues 23 Jun 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   5) (Special for CAFS) Brazil, Angola Ink Cooperation Agreements
   Xinhua: "(Special for CAFS) Brazil, Angola Ink Cooperation Agreements"
   6) PRC President Hu Jintao Arrives in Canada for State Visit, G20 Summit
   Xinhua: "2nd LD Writethru: Chinese President Arrives in Canada for Stat e
   Visit, G20 Summit"
   7) NO Highlights: Brazil Political Issues 23 Jun 10
   8) Brazil Political Issues 22 Jun 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   9) Paraguay Press 23 Jun 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   10) Petrobras Announces New Deepwater Oil Find
   "Petrobras Makes New Deepwater Oil Find" -- EFE Headline
   11) S. Korea Hosts Industrial Plant Cooperation Forum
   12) Southern Cone Crime and Narcotics Issues 22-23 Jun 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   13) Syrian Press 23 Jun 10
   The following lists selected items from the Syrian press on 23 June. To
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615 , (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
   14) Argentina Political and Economic Issues 23 Jun 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   15) Heavy Rains, Floods Death Toll Rises to 44
   "Death Toll in Brazil Floods Climbs to 44" -- EFE Headline
   16) Xinhua 'Interview': There Is Room for Trade Improvement Between
   Zimbabwe And China
   Xinhua "Interview": "There Is Room for Trade Improvement Between Zimbabwe
   And China"
   17) Brazil's Amorim Says Iran 'Must Respond' to Nuclear Concerns
   "Iran Must Respond to Nuclear Concerns: Brazil" -- AFP headline
   18) Brazilian Foreign Minister Visits Bulgaria, Defends Nuclear Deal With
   Iran
   "Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Luiz Nunes Amorim Visits" -- BTA
   headline
   19) Angolan President Arrives in Brazi l on Official Visit
   Unattributed report: "Angolan President Dos Santos Arrives in Brazil"
   20) Kikwete Appoints New Envoys to Sweden, Canada
   Unattributed report: "Kikwete Transfers Ambassadors"
   21) News Roundup 22, 23 Jun
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov
   22) Taiwan-made Shirts Worn By Nine Teams In 2010 World Cup
   By Chao Yu-fan and Frances Huang
   23) Observers Blame Kim Jong Il for DPRK's 'Foolish' World Cup Tactics
   Unattributed report: "Kim Jong-il Blamed For N.Korea's Foolish World Cup
   Tactics"
   24) Xinhua 'Roundup': Exports, Manufacturing Boost Mexico's Economic
   Recovery
   Xinhua "Roundup": "Exports, Manufacturing Boost Mexico's Economic
   Recovery"
   25) Brazil Condemns Sanctions Imposed on Syria
   "Brazil Condemns Sanctions Imposed on Syria" -- NOW Lebanon Headline
   26) Brazil Economic Issues 21-22 Jun 10
   .

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   1) Back to Top
   NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 112 (June 24, 2010) -- TOPIC OF THE WEEK (1 of
   6)
   Yonhap headline: "NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 112 (June 24, 2010)" - Yonhap
   Thursday June 24, 2010 02:26:27 GMT
   SEOUL (Yonhap) -- Despite football fever sweeping the country, North
   Koreans were disappointed and dispirited when their football players
   failed to advance to the round of 16 in the World Cup finals in South
   Africa early this week.North Korea crashed out of the competition after a
   humiliating defeat to Portugal by 7-0 in their second Group G match on
   June 21.The setback pushed North Korea to the bottom of the standings of
   Group G, which also includes Braz il and Ivory Coast.The North Koreans
   earlier had lost to Brazil 1-2, while Portugal had fought a scoreless draw
   with Ivory Coast.North Korea now are scheduled to play Ivory Coast in
   their final group-stage match but its result wouldn't affect the team's
   elimination from the tournament, effectively ending its hopes.It is first
   time in more than four decades that North Korea has qualified for the
   World Cup, a rare point of pride for a nation struggling to feed its
   people, locked in a standoff with world powers over its nuclear
   ambitions.Pyongyang citizens were hugely disappointed after their national
   football team suffered a 7-0 pounding from Portugal at the World Cup, a
   report said on June 22.Choson Sinbo, a pro-North Korean newspaper printed
   in Japan, reported from the North Korean capital that as Pyongyang
   citizens watched the live coverage on the team's second Group G game on
   (North) Korean Central TV Broadcasting Station (KCBSTV), their emotions
   quickly went from "an ticipation and excitement to frustration and
   disappointment."The North kept the game close after allowing only one goal
   in the first half, but Portugal exploded with six scores in the second
   half for the most lopsided win at this year's World Cup so far.North Korea
   has been eliminated from the tournament, regardless of its result against
   the Ivory Coast in the final group match."High expectations only bred huge
   disappointments," the report said. "After watching the opponent's great
   skills with their own eyes, they (Pyongyang residents) were at a loss for
   words."Football is the most popular sport in North Korea.The game was
   billed as the rematch of the quarterfinal showdown from the 1966 World
   Cup.North Korea made its World Cup debut at the 1966 tournament in
   England, where it became the first Asian nation to advance to the top
   eight after upsetting Italy 1-0.In their attempt to reach the semifinals,
   however, the North Koreans that year lost 5-3 to Po rtugal, despite an
   initial 3-0 lead.To this day, the North Koreans are the only Asian team to
   progress beyond the first round at the World Cup finals.Choson Sinbo
   added, however, that the North's valiant showing during the 2-1 loss to
   the World Cup favorite Brazil in the opener still remained in the hearts
   of many fans and that the North Koreans believe the performance was not a
   fluke.In a separate item, the paper reported from Cape Town, South Africa,
   that the team's striker Jong Tae-se offered a tearful apology to the North
   Koreans for the loss.Jong, a forward for Kawasaki Frontale who is dubbed
   the "People's Rooney," usually has been open about his team's hopes in
   South Africa."I felt we were virtually even in the first half, but we lost
   our concentration in the second half and committed many mistakes," Jong
   told the paper. "We wanted to take revenge for the 1966 game and we're
   sorry to our supporters that we couldn't pull it off.We will win the n ext
   match against the Ivory Coast and meet the expectations."The normally
   loquacious Jong, who has failed to score during the World Cup, later
   slipped out of another entrance, away from the crush of reporters without
   showing up for the media event, heading straight for the team bus.Dejected
   and dispirited, the North Korean team left the stadium in Cape Town as
   fast as it could, shuffling past reporters with heads bowed.Yet North
   Korea's coverage of this World Cup has been unprecedented, with stat e TV
   airing delayed footage of many matches in full -- including that of its
   rival, South Korea.In the past only snippets of World Cup matches were
   shown, sometimes weeks later.After showing the team's 2-1 loss to Brazil
   last week a day after the match was played, state TV announced on June 21
   that the much-anticipated match against Portugal would be aired alive.It
   was the first North Korean soccer match played overseas to air live back
   home.This year, the North Koreans made a notable splash as they defeated
   Asian strongholds Iran and Saudi Arabia in the regional qualifiers.But
   that record seemed irrelevant on June 21, even after putting up a tough
   battle against Brazil last week."The team that took part in the 1966 World
   Cup was loved (by the people of North Korea) as it was well combined with
   personal technique and teamwork," North Korean coach Kim Jong-hun recalled
   in a post-match press conference.Kim, appearing somber throughout the
   conference, took blame for his team's loss, saying he failed to control
   his players' strong emotions and to implement proper countermeasures.Asked
   if countermeasures really mattered in the face of Portugal's goal rally,
   the coach responded by repeating that he failed to control the
   formation.Preparing for the Portugal showdown, the North Korean players
   had shown strong motivation to avenge their loss 44 years ago. "Revenge,"
   said midfielder An Yong-hak at a recent press conference. "We will try to
   get revenge for 1966."But at the post-match mixed zone conference, most of
   them refused to speak. "Not today, please," team captain Pak Nam-chol said
   as he whisked past reporters.An, one of the few who spoke, acknowledged
   the match result was "unexpectedly bad." "We should self-reflect for
   having collapsed in the final moments and not doing our best," said An,
   the midfielder for the Japanese pro club Omiya Ardija.Despite recording
   their biggest World Cup loss ever and effectively falling out of the
   competition, the North Koreans expressed their will to fight on in the
   remaining match for their compatriots back home.An said that his teammates
   will "let go of regrets" and go chin-up against the Ivory Coast. "We may
   not be able to reach our goal, but with the final match remaining, we will
   prepare for it well," said An, adding that the team enjoys Pyongyang's
   full support.After an impressive performance against Braz il last week,
   North Korea's players feasted on noodles delivered by their top envoy in
   South Africa as they geared up to avenge the 1966 World Cup loss to
   Portugal, reports said on June 21.Choson Sinbo said North Korean
   Ambassador to South Africa An Hui-jong brought noodles to the squad and
   expressed hope that the food made from local rice and corn would shore up
   their strength against Portugal.The paper did not say when the envoy
   brought the noodles, but quoted the players as calling the taste
   "special."Last week, the North's Korean Central TV Broadcasting Station
   aired the recorded footage of its side's first group match against Brazil,
   in which the team lost by one goal despite having the lowest ranking among
   the 32 World Cup finalists.According to Choson Sinbo report, the North
   Korean capital, Pyongyang, looked like "a deserted city" on June 16, when
   its citizens went home early to watch the Brazil match.North Korea has
   been given the rights to broadc ast all matches of the South Africa World
   Cup under an agreement with the Asia-Pacific Broadcasting Union.Disputes
   arose last week when South Korean broadcaster SBS said it had the
   exclusive World Cup broadcast rights to the Korean Peninsula.SBS later
   retracted its claim.(Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English --
   Semiofficial news agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   2) Back to Top
   Brazil Economic Issues 23 Jun 10 - Brazil -- OSC Summary
   Thursday June 24, 2010 04:18:43 GMT
   http://www.estadao.com.br/ http://www.estadao.com.br ) Brazil, A ngola
   Sign Privileged Partnership Agreement

   - Sao Paulo Agencia Brasil's Renata Giraldi reports that President Luiz
   Inacio Lula da Silva will sign today a privileged partnership agreement
   with Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos. According to the report,
   with the partnership, Brazil and Angola agree that the presidents of the
   two countries shall meet at least once a year and that the dialogue among
   ministers shall be expanded in all the sectors. Story notes that the idea
   is for Brazil to supply knowledge and technology in the areas of
   agriculture, health, and education, in addition to defense, and intensify
   the implementation of the Angolan public health system and higher
   education and technical programs. (Brasilia Agencia Brasil WWW-Text in
   Portuguese -- Government-owned news agency. URL: as of filing date:
   http://www.agenciabrasil.gov.br/ ) Lula Again To Supports Changes in World
   Bank, IMF

   - Sao Paulo O Estado de S. Paulo's Tania Monteiro reports that a fter
   signing eight cooperation agreements in the areas of defense, health,
   agriculture, culture, and education between Brazil and Angola, President
   Lula stated in a speech at Itamaraty, that he will again support this
   weekend during the G-20 meeting the need for changes in the World Bank and
   IMF policies and their position regarding poor and developing countries.
   According to Lula "the World Bank and the IMF must once and for all
   abandon all their obsolete dogmas with absurd conditions." Petrobras
   Postpones Capitalization Plan Until September

   - Sao Paulo Agencia Estado reports that Petrobras yesterday announced that
   it has postponed to September its capitalization plans. According to the
   report, the company was working to issue stocks in July but had to change
   its plans to wait for the conclusion of price assessment on oil reserves
   for 5 billion barrels, which will be used by the government to increase
   the company's capital. (Sao Paulo Agencia Estado in Port uguese -
   Center-right, largely pro-administration news agency) Volume of Foreign
   Investment in Fixed Income Amounts to $12 Billion This Year

   - Sao Paulo Valor reports that the financial crisis in Europe, which has
   raised the volatility of the international financial market and risk
   aversion, did not reduce the appetite of foreign investors for Brazilian
   fixed income bonds. According to the report, with the high interest rat e,
   foreign investors purchased $4.02 billion in fixed income bonds in May,
   which accounts for almost half the investments of this type in 2009 ($9.08
   billion). According to the report, the volume of foreign investments in
   fixed income in Brazil from January to May amounts to $12.07 billion. (Sao
   Paulo Valor Online in Portuguese - Website of financial daily published
   jointly by the Folha and Globo media conglomerates; URL:

   http://www.valoronline.com.br/ http://www.valoronline.com.br ) Volume of
   Imports Grew by 41.5% Until May - Sao Paulo Valo r's Sergio Lamucci
   reports that the increase in imports in 2010 is impressive: from January
   to May the volume of imports rose by 41.5% in relationship to the same
   period of 2009, while prices went up only 1.7% below the variation of
   domestic inflation. According to the report, the strength of domestic
   demand and the strong exchange rate led to an increase particularly in the
   volume of imports of intermediary goods (such as steel, plastic, and
   chemical products), which recorded an increase of 51.3% in the first five
   months of the year, and durable goods (vehicles and electro-electronic
   goods), which rose by 77.1%. Deficit of Industrial Trade Balance Expected
   To Increase

   - Sao Paulo Valor's Marta Watanabe reports that the combination of an
   unfavorable exchange rate for exports and the competitiveness in price of
   imports is expected to increase further the transformation industry's
   trade balance deficit, which has reached almost $19 billion in the first
   five months of th e year.

   The following media were scanned and no file worthy items were noted:

   (Sao Paulo Folha de Sao Paulo Online in Portuguese - Website of generally
   critical of the government, top-circulation newspaper; URL:
   http:www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp)

   (Description of source: Sao Paulo Brasil Economico - Online version of
   economic daily; URL:

   http://www.brasileconomico.com.br/ www.brasileconomico.com.br )

   (Rio de Janeiro JB Online in Portuguese - Website of center-right
   commercial daily affiliated to the Catholic Church; URL:

   http://jbonline.terra.com.br/ http://jbonline.terra.com.br )(Rio de
   Janeiro O Globo Online in Portuguese -- Website of Rio de Janeiro's top
   circulation daily, part of the Globo media conglomerate; URL:

   http://oglobo.globo.com/ http://oglobo.globo.com )(Brasilia Correio
   Braziliense Online in Portuguese -- Website of pro-government daily
   generally differs from printed version, which is available on site to
   subscribe rs; URL:

   http://www.correiobraziliense.com.br/ http://www.correiobraziliense.com.br
   )(Porto Alegre Zero Hora (Internet version-WWW) --- Porto Alegre's leading
   daily

   http://zerohora.com.br URL:http://zerohora.com.br )

   (Brasilia Jornal de Brasilia (Internet Version-WWW) in Portuguese ---
   Brasilia daily URLhttp://www.jornaldebrasilia.com.br/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   3) Back to Top
   China, Portuguese-Speaking Countries Explore Trade Opportunities
   Xinhua: "China, Portuguese-Speaking Countries Explore Trade Opportunities"
   - Xinhua
   Thursday June 24, 2010 03:30:07 GMT
   LISBON, June 23 (Xinhua) -- About 500 entrepreneurs from China and
   Portuguese-speaking countries gathered here Wednesday to explore trade
   opportunities.

   The delegates are from Portugal, Brazil, Angola, Mozambique, Cape Verde,
   Guinea-Bissau, East Timor, the Chinese mainland and China's Macao Special
   Administrative Region (SAR).Portuguese Minister of Economy Vieira da Silva
   attended the meeting.Zhang Wei, vice president of the China Council for
   the Promotion of International Trade, told the meeting that Chinese
   entrepreneurs hope to deepen cooperation with Portugal and other
   Portuguese-speaking countries, especially in areas such as tourism,
   agriculture, energy and health."We hope that Europe can overcome this
   economic crisis soon," he said,adding that the situation "has great
   influence on the Chinese exports and the yuan (the Chinese currency), as
   well as the U.S. dollar. "Delegates said the meeting has economic
   importance, for it generates business.According to the latest official
   data, the trade volume between China and Portuguese-speaking countries
   increased 91 percent year-on-year in April, despite the global financial
   crisis.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's
   official news service for English-language audiences (New China News
   Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   4) Back to Top
   Brazil Crime and Narcotics Issues 23 Jun 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Brazil -- OSC Summary
   Thursday June 24, 2010 01:27:36 GMT
   On 23 June Lucian a Alvarez reports in Sao Paulo O Estado de Sao Paulo
   Digital that a National Drug Policy Secretariat (Senad) poll of 18,000
   Brazilian university students revealed that 60% of them consumed alcohol
   over the 30 days preceding the interview against 38.3% of a sample of the
   overall population; 25.9% had used illegal drugs, against 4.5% of the
   overall population. The drug and alcohol study group of Sao Paulo
   University's (USP) Medical School joined the Senad to prepare the study
   that interviewed students at 100 private and public universities in
   Brazil's 26 capital cities plus the Federal District. Paulina Duarte, head
   of Senad, explained that the administration intends to formulate policies
   to deal with drug use based on the study. USP psychiatrist Arthur Guerra
   de Andrade conveyed that it will be a challenge to find a way to reach out
   to the students. Knowing the downside of drug consumption does not
   discourage them from using narcotics, he affirmed. Many of the st udents
   use alcohol and other drugs simultaneously. The study showed that one in
   every four respondents drinks excessively and 3% qualify as dependents.
   The poll also revealed that 18% of the students said that they had driven
   under the influence of alcoholic beverages; 27% rode in vehicles driven by
   drunk people; and 43.4% had consumed alcohol and other drugs
   simultaneously; 26.1% of the students had consumed marijuana, hashish, or
   skunk; 13.8% had used amphetamines; 12.4% had used tranquilizers of some
   sort without a medical prescription, and 7.7% had used cocaine. (Sao Paulo
   O Estado de Sao Paulo Digital in Portuguese -- website of conservative,
   influential daily, critical of the government; URL:

   http://www.estadao.com.br/ http://www.estadao.com.br/ )

   Federal Police Prepare to Strike for Higher Pay --

   On 22 June Sao Paulo O Estado de Sao Paulo Digital reports that although
   President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva recently stated that he is not going t
   o grant any new salary increases in 2010, the Federal Police (PF) will be
   on alert as of 22 June, which means that a strike may be launched at any
   time. The PF are demanding increases that range from 18.73% to 38.42%.

   Equipment Installed in Federal Penitentiaries Infringe Attorney-Convict
   Confidentiality Rights --

   On 23 June Lucas Ferraz and Matheus Leitao report in Sao Paulo Folha de
   Sao Paulo that according to a classified Depen, the Justice Ministry's
   National Penitentiary Department, document the federal government built
   four federal penitentiaries equipped to record audio and images of
   conversations that inmates have with their attorneys, which conflicts with
   legislation in force. Sandro Avelar, a Depen director, affirmed that court
   orders are required to switch on the system. According to seven prison
   guards there is equipment available to record conversations in the rooms
   used for conjugal visits in the penitentiaries also. The documents wit h
   the information were delivered to the National Justice Council (CNJ) and
   the National Public Prosecutors' Council (CNMP). The PF are investigating
   the release of images said to have been made in the Campo Grande, Mato
   Grosso do Sul, federal penitentiary, on the YouTube website. (Sao Paulo
   Folha de Sao Paulo (Internet Version-WWW) in Portuguese --- Center-left
   daily, generally critical of the government; top-circulation newspaper.
   URL:http://www.folha.uol.com.br/)

   Brazil Listed Among Ecstasy Suppliers in UNODC Report --

   On 22 June Italo Nogueira reports in Sao Paulo Folha de Sao Paulo that the
   UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) report lists Brazil as an ecstasy
   exporter for the first time. Although the amount is irrelevant, a ccording
   to the UNODC, ecstasy left Brazil to supply Europe. The Federal Police
   (PF) does not have details of the cases. In 2008 and 2009 authorities
   closed two ecstasy manufacturing plants; one of them, in Imarui, Santa
   Cata rina, made 2 million doses of ecstasy in slightly over one year, or
   three times the 620,000 doses seized by the PF in 2002 to 2009.

   Legislation Limits Prison Terms to 30 Year Maximum --

   On 23 June Rio de Janeiro Globo G1 website reports that in 2009, 497 of
   the 508 convicts sentenced to spend over 100 years in Brazilian prisons
   are men and 11 are women, according to the National Penitentiary
   Department's Integrated System of Penitentiary Information (Infopen).
   According to legislation currently in force, convicts spend a maximum 30
   years in prison, however. (Rio de Janeiro Globo G1 (Internet Version-WWW)
   in Portuguese --- Rio de Janeiro Globo Network website - center-right,
   generally pro-government URL:http://g1.globo.com/) Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
   City Luxury Store Proprietor Accused of Import Frauds --

   On 23 June Fausto Macedo and Bruno Tavares report in Sao Paulo O Estado de
   Sao Paulo Digital that on 22 June a Sao Paulo federal court installed
   crimina l procedures against entrepreneur Tania Bulhoes Grendene Bartelle
   and 13 other people accused of import frauds, illegal remittance abroad,
   falsehood, currency exchange fraud, as well as transnational illicit
   association. According to public prosecutors the group ran a scheme that
   imported under-invoiced luxury goods sold at two Bulhoes' stores in Sao
   Paulo City. Investigations link the scheme to a similar operation
   uncovered in July 2005 and run by Daslu, a Sao Paulo City luxury boutique.
   The Bulhoes scheme used the same importers as Daslu. Military Police Close
   DVD Replication Facility, Seize 5,000 Pirated DVDs in Sao Paulo City Slum
   --

   On 23 June Rio de Janeiro Globo G1 website reports that on 22 June at
   night a Military Police (PM) operation uncovered a clandestine disc
   replication operation installed behind a bar in the Ayrton Senna
   shantytown of Jardim Angela, a district on the south side of Sao Paulo
   City, and seized 5,000 recorded DVDs, 2,500 virgin dis cs, and six
   computers. The owner of the property claims to have rented it but the PM
   did not find the tenant. Military Police Foil Plan to Rob Bank of Brazil,
   Central Bank in Sao Paulo Hinterland --

   On 23 June Rio de Janeiro Globo G1 website reports that according to
   Military Police (PM) a gang that dug two tunnels into a Bank of Brazil
   branch in Sao Jose dos Campos, Sao Paulo, planned to rob the facility
   later this week probably on 25 June, during the Brazil-Portugal World Cup
   of soccer game. The PM arrested one person and found the tunnels on 23
   June but the Federal Police (PF) will take over the investigation in view
   of the fact that the establishment is also a Central Bank (BC) deposit.
   The PM found the opening of one tunnel linked a house to the rain water
   drain system and a second one from the system to the BB's safe. BB
   employees called in police due to noise the gang made while digging the
   tunnel. Rio de Janeiro Federal Police Investigate Office rs Suspected of
   Corruption in Rio de Janeiro --

   On 22 June Rio de Janeiro Globo G1 website reports that Federal Police
   (PF) union representatives are keeping abreast of investigations into a
   device installed in one of the rooms at the PF office in Nova Iguacu, in
   Rio de Janeiro's Baixada Fluminense region. According to the PF the device
   was legally installed to eavesdrop on two officers suspected of
   corruption. Mato Grosso do Sul Military Police Seize 363 Kg of Marijuana
   in Mato Grosso do Sul Hinterland --

   On 23 June Mato Grosso do Sul Capitan Bado reports on 22 June Military
   Police (PM) arrested Genaro Medina da Silva, 19, and seized 363 kg of
   marijuana from the luggage compartment of the Fiat Palio Weekend with
   Ituiutaba, Minas Gerais, license plates HGN-2013, in Sidrolandia, Minas
   Gerais. Silva picked up the marijuana in Ponta Pora and intended to take
   it to Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul. The PM also arrested Julio August
   Fretes, 44, employed by the State Sanitary Defense Agency, Iagro, who was
   driving a Honda Civic with Campo Grande license plates HRR-5879, escorting
   Silva. (Capitan Bado, Mato Grosso do Sul regional news website --- URL:

   http://www.capitanbado.com http://www.capitanbado.com ) Parana Federal
   Highway Police Seize 5.5 Metric Tons of Marijuana in Parana Hinterland --

   Updating the report filed on 22 June (LAP20100623020001) Mato Grosso do
   Sul Capitan Bado reports that on 21 June the Federal Highway Police (PRF)
   seized 5.5 metric tons of marijuana in Cascavel, Parana, on board a truck
   with Laranjeiras do Sul, Parana, license plates CZB-8059, loaded with
   corn. The PRF arrested driver L.J.P., 32, and passenger J.E.R.S., 48,
   driving the truck from Foz do Iguacu, Parana, to Rio de Janeiro. Federal
   Police Detain Minor, Seize 4,500 Cartons of Contraband Paraguayn
   Cigarettes in Parana Hinterland --

   On 23 June the Brasilia Justice Ministry's Federal Police Department
   website reports that on 22 June Federal Police (PF) seized 4,500 cartons
   of cigarettes in a warehouse in Guaira, Parana, along with a GM Blazer
   loaded with boxes of cigarettes. The PF detained a minor who confessed
   that he smuggled the cigarettes in from Paraguay, via river. (Brasilia
   Justice Ministry - Federal Police Department (WWW) -Text in Portuguese ---
   Justice Ministry's Federal Police Department website
   URL:http://www.dpf.gov.br/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   5) Back to Top
   (Special for CAFS) Brazil, Angola Ink Cooperation Agreements
   Xinhua: "(Special for CAFS) Brazil, Angola Ink Cooperation Agreements" -
   Xinhua
   Thursday June 24, 2010 00:52:58 GMT
   BRASILIA, June 23 (Xinhua) -- Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da
   Silva and his visiting Angolan counterpart Jose Eduardo dos Santos signed
   on Wednesday a series of agreements on cooperation in technology, science
   and agriculture.

   The agreements will allow students exchanges, the creation of an
   scientific investigation network, the exchange of information on
   agriculture techniques and an understanding protocol on new credits.During
   a lunch in honor of Santos, Lula said that both countries "are convinced
   of the need to build a more fair international order. The reform of the
   global institutions cannot ignore the growing importance of Africa and
   South America."Lula also stressed the importance of the multilateral
   finance institutions to help rebuild Angola, whose nearly 30-year-old
   civil war ended eight years ago.Meanwhile, Santos supported Brazil's bid
   for a permanent seat at the United Nations Security Council and stressed
   the importance of the agreements signed to strengthen ties between both
   countries."It is about information exchange, a strategic alliance in
   important areas, such as the transfer of technology and knowledge," Santos
   said.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official
   news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   6) Back to Top
   PRC President Hu Jintao Arrives in Canada for State Visit, G20 Summit
   Xinhua: "2nd LD Writethru: Chinese President Arrives in Canada for State
   Visit, G20 Summit" - Xinhua
   Thursday June 24, 2010 00:26:46 GMT
   (Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news
   service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   7) Back to Top
   NO Highlights: Brazil Political Issues 23 Jun 10 - Brazil -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 22:47:39 GMT
   M

   8) Back to Top
   Brazil Political Issues 22 Jun 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   os cinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Brazil -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 22:32:32 GMT
   -- .The lead editorial in Sao Paulo O Estado de Sao Paulo looks at the
   acknowledgement by Foreign Minister Celso Amorim in a recent interview
   published in the London Financial Times that Brazil "got its fingers
   burned" in its effort to broker an agreement between the West and Iran on
   Tehran's controversial nuclear program. According to the editors, "Brazil
   did not go to bat for Iran because the United States encouraged it to do
   so only to then turn its back. At least from the time that the visit of
   Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinezhad (to Brasilia) was being planned in
   November of last year, the administration visibly took on the intent of
   promoting itself as a mediator of the dispute surrounding the nuclear
   program suspected of being used to produce an atomic bomb. In the
   estimation of Ita maraty (Palace), the initiative would give Brazil the
   equivalent in the political arena of what 'investment grade' means for the
   country's financial transactions. Such certainty, if not hubris, led the
   government to treat as unpatriotic the warnings about the disparity
   between the (real) costs and (possible) benefits of the Lulaist
   undertaking to disarm a confrontation that in the final analysis
   intertwines itself with the chronic conflicts of the Middle East and with
   the strategic interests of the United States." (Sao Paulo O Estado de S.
   Paulo digital in Portuguese -- Website of conservative, influential daily,
   critical of the government; URL:

   http://www.estadao.com.br/ http://www.estadao.com.br ) (OSC is translating
   this item) Former Ambassador Evaluates 'Hurried Desire' for 'International
   Star Power'

   - Contributing a guest article to Sao Paulo O Estado de Sao Paulo, former
   Ambassador to the United States Rubens Barbosa writes that in light of
   Brazil's growing stature on the world stage, traditional regional
   frameworks such as the Mercosur trade bloc and Latin America are proving
   too small for the global interests of the country. In Barbosa's view, only
   a lack of "political will" stands in the way of domestic structural
   reforms that would "complete the country's modernization process." At the
   same time, however, the veteran diplomat cautions that a "hasty desire for
   international star power for domestic electoral political ends" has placed
   that process "in check". Said haste, Barbosa maintains, has produced
   "mistakes in our foreign policy that could complicate the path of mature
   (Brazilian) affirmation in the world - a path which a successful staging
   of the World Cup (in 2014) and Olympic Games (in 2016) could enhance even
   further." (OSC is translating this item) Former Foreign Minister
   Criticizes 'Sectarianization' of Foreign Policy

   - Writing a guest article in the 20 June edition of Sao Paulo O Estado de
   Sao Paulo, former Foreign Minister Celso Lafer offers the following view:
   "The sectarianization of foreign policy, with its ideological slant, has
   served as a route to obfuscate and place on a secondary tier its
   dimensions as a policy of state, which taking into account the persistency
   factors in Brazil's international placement, contribute to guarantee the
   foreign predictability and reliability of the country. I notice that the
   partisan posture of those responsible for the current administration's
   foreign policy has considerably enabled the critical bruising directed at
   this policy. These individuals have, with no historical basis, formatted
   the Lula presidency as the 'Zero Milestone' for Brazilian diplomacy. Those
   who sow the wind of discrediting reap the whirlwind of dissent." (OSC is
   translating this item) Domestic Political Censored Text from Planning
   Ministry Website Addressed Progress of Agrarian Reform

   - Lu Ai ko Otta reports in Sao Paulo O Estado de Sao Paulo that the text
   which the Planning Ministry removed from one of its websites following
   complaints by cabinet ministers included a critical assessment of agrarian
   reform under President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. The document, which O
   Estado obtained, asserts that "so far, agrarian reform in earnest has
   taken place." "Despite having now gained access to land and some
   services," the text continues, "the quality of life of these (resettled)
   populations remains in many cases the same as it was before they were
   resettled." The document also points to the lack of a "culture of
   evaluation, willing to test the real effects of the (agrarian) policy as a
   whole." The critique also maintains that the government has concentrated
   credits designed to promote family agriculture in the south of the country
   at the expense of the northeast, where such activity "is reminiscent of
   conditions of extreme poverty." The text cites farming census data showing
   that only 20% of small rural land parcels up to 500 hectares in size
   received technical assistance from the government while 60% owners of land
   parcels exceeding 500 hectares and no greater than 2,500 hectares received
   such aid. Presidential Campaign Serra Rejects 'Terrorism' From Rousseff
   Camp

   - Sao Paulo Folha de Sao Paulo reports that Brazilian Social Democracy
   Party (PSDB) presidential candidate Jose Serra used a 21 June roundtable
   discussion sponsored by the newspaper to reject what he called "terrorism"
   by the campaign of Worker's Party (PT) presidential candidate Dilma
   Rousseff, whom he accused of spreading rumors that if elected he would
   resume the privatization process that took place during the tenure of
   former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB) and would end the Family
   Bonus program - one of the Lula administration's most popular initiatives.
   Serra also called on Rousseff to publicl y apologize for her camp's
   alleged involvement in hiring retired intelligence agents to compile
   incriminating information on the PSDB in general and Serra in particular.
   In reference to comments by Rousseff that the Revenue Department was
   responsible for unsealing confidential banking and financial records
   belonging to a senior PSDB official, Serra said: "Why would the Revenue
   Department of an administration from a party unseal and randomly leak
   somebody's records? It was not at random. I think the best thing to do
   when there has been an obvious error is to apologize." The PSDB
   presidential contender did not directly criticize President Lula and
   described himself as a "candidate of advancement" rather than of
   opposition. Addressing Brazilian efforts to broker an agreement with Iran
   on the issue of uranium enrichment, Serra said that the country had "gone
   down a road from where there is no going back." He added: "I would not
   have had that n egotiation because I do not trust a dictator. Relatively
   speaking, it is like the people who trusted Hitler in Munich." Serra also
   reiterated his view that Planalto Palace is not putting enough pressure on
   the government of Bolivian President Evo Morales to curb the smuggling of
   cocaine into Brazil. (Sao Paulo Folha de Sao Paulo Online in Portuguese -
   Website of generally critical of the government, top-circulation
   newspaper; URL: http:www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp) Rousseff Rebuffs
   Experience Issue

   - Sao Paulo O Estado de Sao Paulo 's Tiago Decimo reports that Dilma
   Rousseff rebuffed questions regarding her lack of managerial experience,
   saying that "the difference is that we know how to do things and they
   (opposition candidates) don't." Appearing at an event in Salvador (Bahia
   State) alongside vice-presidential candidate and former Chamber of
   Deputies President Michel Temer (Brazilian Democratic Movement Party, PMDB
   - Sao Paulo), Rousseff alluded to the S erra campaign's slogan "Brazil Can
   Do More," saying that "we are different from those who come around
   promising to do more; because they didn't and we did." She described
   herself as the "right and left hands" of President Lula and defended her
   credentials to seek the presidency, asserting that "there was no
   administration project, at the end of the first (Lula) term and in the
   second term, that I did not coordinate." "Some projects I not only
   coordinated but drew up, like the Growth Acceleration Program (PAC), My
   House My Life, and Electricity for All," she said. Rousseff said the
   opposition "is getting managerial experience mixed up with electoral
   experience; not having electoral experience means a new way of making
   policy, but I even regret not having electoral experience." The PT
   presidential hopeful also pledged to capitalize on what she called "a
   unique opportunity to stop being an emerging country and bec ome a
   developed one." Flanked by vice-presidential running mate Michel Temer (l)
   and PMDB gubernatorial candidate Geddel Vieira Lima, Rousseff greets
   supporters in Salvador (Bahia State)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   9) Back to Top
   Paraguay Press 23 Jun 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Paraguay -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 19:32:39 GMT
   -- Asuncion ABC Color reports that this morning the Senate elected Oscar
   Gonzalez Daher of the Colorado Party (National Republican Association-ANR)
   as the new Senate preside nt. (Asuncion ABC Color Digital in Spanish --
   Website of leading daily, highly critical of ANR-Colorado Party, owned by
   entrepreneur Aldo Zuccolillo; URL:http://www.abc.com.py) President Lugo
   shakes hand with officers during military ceremony (Source: ABC Color)
   Military Chief Says Armed Forces 'Alert' To Combat Armed Group

   -- ABC Color reports that Military Forces Commander General Juan Oscar
   Velazquez yesterday said that the Armed Forces are "alert" to combat the
   Paraguayan People's Army, EPP.He explained that the military forces are
   always prepared to fulfill any mission in the country.Asked what he thinks
   of the EPP statement calling on the military to revolt against the legally
   established authorities, Velazquez said that his mission is established in
   the Constitution.He made this comment in the facilities of the Military
   Justice Service Directorate (DSJM) where a ceremony headed by President
   Fernando Lugo was held to celebrate the DSJM 123 rd anniversa ry. Analyst
   Says EPP Creates Cells To Disorient Security Forces

   -- Asuncion Ultima Hora carries an article by political analyst Justiniano
   Riveros saying that the EPP is divided in three cells to create
   disorientation and to avoid being captured by the security forces.Asuncion
   La Nacion reports that political and military analyst Horacio Galeano
   Perrone predicts that the EPP will carry out kidnappings in urban areas.
   (Asuncion Ultima Hora.com in Spanish -- Website of leading daily; Majority
   shareholder business and media entrepreneur A.J.Vierci; URL:
   http://www.ultimahora.com/) (OSC will provide a full translation of this
   item) Brazilian Security Forces on Alert To Prevent EPP Operations

   -- ABC Color carries an article by political analyst Roque Gonzalez Vera
   stating that Brazilian Police and Army units stationed near the Apa River
   across Concepcion Department, Paraguay, are in state of alert to prevent
   EPP members from using Brazilian territory to take refuge or as transit
   for their operations.According to intelligence reports, the EPP column
   that escaped from Kurusu de Hierro is now divided in two groups, the
   article says. Government Investigates House Construction by EPP

   -- Ultima Hora reports that security organizations are investigating house
   constructions for "social" purpose by the EPP in Kurusu de Hierro and
   Tacuati with money collected from kidnappings, Interior Minister Rafael
   Filizzola admitted yesterday.He said that the sale of construction
   material in those regions has increased considerably and therefore, the
   government cannot rule out that the money came from the ransom paid for
   the release of kidnapped victims. Ministry Announces Establishment of
   Diplomatic Relations With Uganda

   -- Ultima Hora reports that the Foreign Ministry yesterday announced that
   Paraguay on 18 June established diplomatic relations with Uganda in New
   York.Jose Antonio Dos Santos, the Paraguayan representative at the Uni ted
   Nations, and his Ugandan counterpart Ruhakana Rugunda signed the
   documents. 'Landless Peasants' Threaten Land Invasions

   -- ABC Color carries a report datelined General Resquin, San Pedro
   Department, stating that the Departmental Coordinating Board for Agrarian
   Reform and Sovereignty yesterday announced that thousands of alleged
   "landless peasants" are ready to invade the land of 22,000 hectares owned
   by (Brazilian agricultural businessman) Ulisses Rodrigues Teixeira and the
   ranch Carla Maria of 15,000 hectares owned by Jose Bogarin.Peasant leader
   Jose Rodriguez, who belongs to the Free Fatherland Party (PPL), said that
   many peasant organizations are withdrawing their support for President
   Fernando Lugo because he has not fulfilled his promises. No Selection

   : Ciudad del Este Vanguardia

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   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries re garding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   10) Back to Top
   Petrobras Announces New Deepwater Oil Find
   "Petrobras Makes New Deepwater Oil Find" -- EFE Headline - EFE
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 19:16:05 GMT
   The oil was found in the Albacora Leste concession, which Petrobras
   jointly operates with Spanish energy firm Repsol, the Brazilian company
   said.

   The crude lies some 130 kilometers (80 miles) off the coast of Rio de
   Janeiro state at a depth of 4,536 meters (14,870 feet).

   Petrobras' preliminary estimates indicate the presence of good-quality,
   light oil, although more drilling is needed to determine the size of the
   reserves and their productivity, as well as the viability of extracting
   the crude without making additional investment.

   On 4 June, Petrobras announced the discovery of medium oil with an
   American Petroleum Institute gravity of 29 degrees, also in the Campos
   Basin, which accounts for 90 percent of Brazilian crude production.

   The firm said then that that discovery may hold 380 million barrels of
   recoverable oil and natural gas.

   Petrobras, Brazil's largest firm and one of the world's fastest-growing
   oil companies, produces an average of 2.5 million barrels of oil
   equivalent per day in Brazil and its fields abroad.

   The company has a presence in more than two-dozen countries in the
   Americas, Africa, Asia, Europe and Oceania.

   Shares of Petrobras, a global leader in deepwater oil exploration and
   production, trade on the Sao Paulo, New York, Madrid and Buenos Aires
   stock exchanges, but the Brazilian government retains control through a
   golden share.

   (Description of Source: Madrid EFE in English -- independent Spanish press
   agency)

   Material in the World News Conn ection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   11) Back to Top
   S. Korea Hosts Industrial Plant Cooperation Forum - Yonhap
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 21:12:15 GMT
   S Korea-industrial plant

   S. Korea hosts industrial plant cooperation forumSEOUL, June 24 (Yonhap)
   -- South Korea were to host an industrial plant cooperation forum in Seoul
   Thursday to help local companies secure fresh contracts in Africa and
   Latin American countries, the government said.The Ministry of Knowledge
   Economy said the one-day event is expected to be represented by 350
   corporate leaders, government officials and international organizations
   from countries such as Paraguay, Ghana, Cambodia and Brazil.It said
   prospective contracts worth up to US$7.0 billion won are to be discussed
   in talks between countries wanting to place orders and local industrial
   plant manufacturers, in oil and gas, electric power and marine
   construction areas."The gathering aims to help South Korean companies
   diversify away from the Middle East which accounted for 60 percent of all
   deals in 2009," a ministry official said. Over dependence in the Middle
   East could become a liability if there is a sudden drop in international
   energy prices or if unexpected geopolitical risks arise in the regionsIn
   2009, South Korea won overseas orders worth $46.3 billion, making the
   industry a key player for economic growth. The total secured marks a sharp
   increase from $25.4 billion tallied for 2006 and just $8.4 billion in
   2004.South Korea has the engineering knowhow, expertise and price
   competitiveness to win foreign deals and has won high marks for meeting
   construction and deli very deadlines.In addition to corporate talks, the
   Korea Plant Industries Association has arranged a forum, which will
   include an international plant export financial seminar attended by
   executives from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development,
   Asian Development Bank and BNP Paribas.The meeting will allow the
   participants to exchange views on how to finance large projects and to
   make use of funds from oil-rich Middle East countries for large
   projects.(Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial
   news agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   12) Back to Top
   Southern Cone Crime and Narcotics Issues 22 -23 Jun 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Southern Cone -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 20:41:22 GMT
   -- Buenos Aires Clarin reports on 21 June that Brazilian customs officials
   seized more than 1 metric ton of cocaine that was being transported by
   ship from Argentina to Spain. The Brazilian customs officials conducted
   the operation in the port of Santos (Brazil) and the authorities are
   investigating whether the cocaine belongs to a drug-trafficking ring that
   exports cocaine from Buenos Aires in fruit boxes. The cocaine was in two
   containers camouflaged with apples. Jose Antonio Mendez, chief inspector
   of the Santos Federal Revenue Secretariat, told the EFE news agency that
   the operation was conducted after the Argentine Customs Directorate issued
   an alert notice. The authorities are now seeking to confirm wheth er the
   ship carrying the cocaine was one of the ships that had left from Buenos
   Aires used by an organization that exported drugs in fruit boxes. This
   drug-trafficking ring was detected through Operation White Apple, which
   led to the seizure of 1,625 kg of cocaine in the port of Buenos Aires.
   Following this operation, the Argentine courts determined that two ships
   had already left and that one of them was about to arrive in Spain and the
   other one was the one detected by the Brazilian law enforcement
   authorities. Virginia Messi writes in Buenos Aires Clarin on 19 June that
   the company that shipped the apples is Frutol Inc., which is located in
   Allen (Rio Negro Province). This company has sent 17 shipments abroad over
   the past year to different companies. The main destination of these
   shipments was Spain. A businessman from Rio Negro Province is the only
   person arrested in connection with this case. The man was in charge of the
   packing process of the apples. The apple shipme nt seized during Operation
   White Apple had left Rio Negro Province on 4 June and arrived in Buenos
   Aires on 8 June, but the container with the apples was opened on 16 June.
   (Buenos Aires Clarin.com in Spanish -- Online version of
   highest-circulation, tabloid-format daily owned by the Clarin media group;
   generally critical of government; URL: http://www.clarin.com ) Article in
   Portuguese carrying photograph of the cocaine camouflaged with apples
   (clarin.com, 21 June)

   Cocaine Seized in Port of Santos Amounts to 3,349 Kg

   -- Buenos Aires Clarin reports on 23 June that the Brazilian law
   enforcement authorities have already seized 3,349 kg of cocaine in the
   port of Santos (Brazil) after being alerted by the Argentine courts about
   the existence of a cocaine shipment in two containers on board a ship. The
   seized cocaine was valued at 150 million euros. Agent from Brazil's
   Federal Revenue Secretariat inspects seized cocaine (clarin.com, 23 June)

   GN Seizes 566 K g of Marijuana in Misiones Province

   -- The official website of the National Border Guard (GN) of Argentina on
   23 June carries a report datelined Buenos Aires stating that GN personnel
   seized 566 kg of marijuana hidden in the ruins of the abandoned facilities
   of a place used to dry yerba mate in Colonia Santa Rosa in Misiones
   Province on 22 June. The GN personnel found 18 burlap bags containing 445
   marijuana bricks inside an oven. The seized marijuana is worth more than 2
   million pesos ($509,000). (National Border Guard of the Argentine Nation
   -- Official website of the Argentine National Border Guard; URL:
   http://www.gendarmeria.gov.ar ) Oven where the marijuana was found
   (gendarmeria.gov.ar, 23 June)

   CHILE Counternarcotics Agents Seize 26 Kg of Cocaine Base Paste in Biobio
   Region

   --Santiago El Mercurio on 22 June carries a report by Giovanni Calabrano
   datelined Concepcion stating that the Antinarcotics Brigade of the
   Investigations Police (PDI) arreste d two individuals carrying two
   suitcases containing 26 kg of cocaine base paste, which equal to
   approximately 300,000 doses, on 20 June. The seized cocaine base paste was
   valued at 300 million pesos ($566,000). This is the largest cocaine base
   paste shipment seized in the Biobio Region in 2010. The seized drug was
   going to be distributed in Greater Concepcion and in neighboring
   provinces. The PDI agents conducted this operation following an 18-month
   investigation along with personnel from the Talcahuano Attorney General's
   Office, which detected that the cocaine base paste was being transported
   from Calama in northern Chile. The PDI agents intercepted the detainees at
   the Agua Amarilla toll station at the intersection with the Itata Highway.
   The detainees were identified as Jorge Toro Saldana, 22, and Julio
   Martinez Bravo, 30. (Santiago El Mercurio Online in Spanish -- Website of
   privately owned, top-circulation, conservative daily, belonging to the
   Edwards family mediagroup ; URL: http://www.elmercurio.cl ) The seized
   cocaine base paste (tercera.com, 21 June)

   Civilian Police Seize More Than 2.2 Kg of Cocaine at Los Libertardores
   Border Crossing

   -- Andres Orrego writes in Santiago La Tercera on 22 June that personnel
   from the Civilian Police arrested an Argentine woman whose initials are
   G.A.V.G., 18, near Los Libertadores border crossing for trying to smuggle
   2.216 kg of high-purity cocaine into Chile. The seized cocaine was valued
   at 44 million pesos ($83,000). The woman was traveling in a bus coming
   from the city of Mendoza (Argentina). The woman is a member of an
   international drug-trafficking ring operating in Mendoza and sending drugs
   to Santiago. (Santiago La Tercera Online in Spanish -- Website of
   conservative daily. Belongs to the Copesa Group of Opus Dei member Alvaro
   Saieh. Requires subscription; URL: http://www.tercera.com ) Investigations
   Police Seize More Than 200 Kg of Marijuana in Temuco

   -- Santiago La Terc era reports on 22 June that PDI personnel conducted an
   eight-month investigation that led to the seizure of more than 200 kg of
   marijuana and the arrest of six people who were members of an
   international drug-trafficking ring in the city of Temuco. The PDI
   determined that the drug-trafficking ring smuggled the cocaine into Chile
   through border crossings with Argentina and then distributed it in
   Santiago, Temuco, and other cities in southern Chile. The ringleader had
   escaped to Argentina from the Osorno Prison after he was sentenced to life
   imprisonment for parricide. Investigations Police Seize More Than 3 Kg of
   Drugs

   -- Santiago La Tercera reports on 23 June that personnel from the PDI
   Criminal Investigations Brigade arrested a micro-drug trafficke r in his
   home in Diego Portales neighborhood in Puente Alto and seized more than 3
   kg of cocaine and marijuana after people residing in the area reported the
   man's activities. The seized drugs were valued at 6 million peso s
   ($11,280). PARAGUAY Police Destroy One-Hectare Marijuana Plantation in
   Caazapa Department

   -- Asuncion ABC Color on 21 June carries a report by correspondent Antonio
   Caballero datelined Caazapa (Caazapa Department) stating that policemen
   found a one-hectare marijuana plantation at a ranch in Yuti district on 20
   June. Antinarcotics Prosecutor Miguel A. Cardenas ordered destroying the
   marijuana plantation. According to police information, the ranch is owned
   by Guillermo Sheffer, a rancher from the city of Yegros. Sheffer is
   believed to be marijuana middleman who grows marijuana in his property.
   (Asuncion ABC Color Digital in Spanish -- Website of leading daily, highly
   critical of ANR-Colorado Party, owned by entrepreneur Aldo Zuccolillo;
   URL: http://www.abc.com.py) Police Seize 211 Kg of Marijuana in Itapua
   Department

   -- Asuncion Ultima Hora reports on 22 June that Police personnel seized
   211 kg of pressed marijuana at a vehicle checkpoint at the 48-km marker of
   Highway No. 6 in Bella Vista (Itapua Department). The marijuana was being
   transported in a pickup truck, whose driver escaped abandoning the vehicle
   and the marijuana. (Asuncion Ultima Hora.com in Spanish -- Website of
   leading daily; Majority shareholder business and media entrepreneur
   A.J.Vierci; URL: http://www.ultimahora.com/ ) Senad Agents Seize 748 Kg of
   Marijuana in Itapua Department

   -- Asuncion ABC Color reports on 22 June that special agents from the
   National Antinarcotics Secretariat (Senad) seized more than 748 kg of
   pressed marijuana in San Juan del Parana (Itapua Department) on 21 June.
   The seized marijuana had to be picked up at an abandoned house and then
   transported to Argentina for its redistribution. The Senad conducted the
   operation in an inhabited property in Paraiso neighborhood in San Juan del
   Parana, south of Encarnacion. No arrests were made in connection with this
   case. Another group of drug traffickers was apparently in charge of
   picking up the marijuana and cross the Parana River with it over to
   Argentina. Part of the seized marijuana was going to be sold in the
   Argentine border area. Customs Officials Seize Smuggled Goods Worth
   $192,000 -- Asuncion Ultima Hora reports on 22 June that the National
   Customs Directorate seized smuggled goods worth a total 865.9 million
   guaranis ($192,400) including 901 Nokia-, Motorola-, and LG-brand cell
   phones, as well as Brazilian sugar bags, powder soap, cooking oil, and
   medicines in Alto Parana Department. Customs officials also seized a
   Toyota Dyna in Central Department and seized sugar, cooking oil, caramel
   spread, powder soap, and powdered milk worth 83 million guaranis
   ($18,500). Senad Personnel Seize 330 Kg of Marijuana in Itapua Department

   -- Asuncion Ultima Hora on 23 June reports that the Senad announced on 23
   June that Senad agents arrested four drug traffickers and seized 330 kg of
   marijuana in a property in the locality of Edelira Cuatro Bocas in Itapua
   Dep artment. The marijuana was in 14 bags. The detainees were identified
   as Rufino Benitez Quintana, 48; W.F., 17; Ramon Gomez, 46; and Pedro
   Rojas, 44.The final destination of the marijuana was Argentina and it is
   valued at more than $300,000 in Argentina. URUGUAY

   No selection TRIBORDER AREA

   No selection

   The following media were scanned and no file-worthy items were found:
   Montevideo El Observador, Montevideo El Pais, and Montevideo La Republica.

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   13) Back to Top
   Syrian Press 23 Jun 10
   The following lists selected items from the Syrian press on 23 June. To
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 33
   8-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735. - Syria -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 18:44:37 GMT
   http://thawra.alwehda.gov.sy/ http://thawra.alwehda.gov.sy)

   In a 275-word editorial in Tishrin entitled "Iraq As We See it and the
   Arab Sees it," Chief Editor Samirah al-Masalimah says: "Iraq has
   constituted a historical, nationalistic, and regional depth for Syria
   since the dawn of history, because of all the common factors, both
   physical or moral, and by virtue of all the facts of past decades, and
   perhaps centuries, that have shown that Syria and Iraq have formed toward
   each other that emotion that no one can ignore. No one can break the ties
   or abolish the relationship from conscience or memory alike." She adds:
   "Everyone in the region, and beyond, is aware of the challenges that Syria
   faced, from the moment that brute force was used against the people of
   Iraq, its history, and its state at the hands of American occupation, and
   since the advanced Mosad Brigades started interfering with its national
   unity, social fabric, and even its state structure, and existence; Syria
   stood in word and deed against all this interference, the occupation, and
   the shamelessness of others on the soil of Iraq."Al-Masalimah concludes:
   "Therefore, and not in terms of any other concept, that (Syria's)
   eagerness for Iraq's unity, security, stability, and its future must be
   understood. And here too, everyone should be aware of the backgrounds of
   our political discourse about Iraq, and Syria's insistence on the
   establishment of a national government in Iraq that is all-inclusive, does
   not exclude anyone, deepens national reconciliation, and can be an entry
   to the return of security and stability to Iraq and the region in
   general." (Description of source: Damascus Tishrin Online in Arabic --
   Website of the government-owned newspaper; URL:
   &lt; br&gt;http://tishreen.info/ http://tishreen.info)

   In a 600-word article in Al-Ba'th entitled "The World Cup and the Arab
   Street," Ziyad Amin al-Qadi says that "the World Cup grabs the interest of
   popular classes across the globe, because it carries with it factors of
   excitement, while the various audio-visual, print, and electronic media
   play an important role in highlighting the event." "However," the writer
   adds, "this World Cup was preceded by an event that shook the feelings of
   humanity in the world, and was represented by the Zionist crime of naval
   piracy against the Freedom Flotilla."He goes on to say that the "Arab
   popular mood interacted with this major sporting event, but without
   ignoring the political context of its national issues," indicating that,
   despite the spread of the various flags of participating countries on Arab
   streets, "it is striking that in the midst of all the flags flown on
   balconies, and roofs of houses and cars, to note the absence of the
   American flag, although the United States's football performance has
   evolved recently." He explains that by the fact that "the Arab street has
   not forgotten the aggressive practices of the United States against our
   people, and our nation, by supporting the Zionist regime's crimes" in
   Palestine, Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq, Sudan, and Somalia, in addition to "the
   issuance of the Syria Accountability Act." He concludes: "The mood of the
   Arab street confirmed that enjoying an exciting World Cup will not make
   the Arabs forget their causes, and demonstrated that a beautiful football
   display by Western teams will not be able to beautify the positions of
   those countries." (Description of source: Damascus Al-Ba'th Online in
   Arabic -- Website of the newspaper of the ruling Ba'th Party; URL:

   http://www.albaath.news.sy/ http://www.albaath.news.sy)

   Al-Watan publishes a 2,350-word interview with the Brazilian ambassador in
   Syria, Edgar Antonio Cassiano, conducted by Hassan Hashim, in which
   Cassiano praises the forthcoming visit of President Bashar al-Asad to
   Brazil, stressing that "the meeting between al-Asad and Brazilian
   President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will be warmly welcomed." Cassiano
   adds that "this first visit of President al-Asad to Brazil is historic,
   and important on various levels, and is similar in meaning and objectives
   to the first visit paid by President da Silva to Syria in 2003, just after
   the occupation of Iraq." He also notes that "the historic feature of the
   visit stems from the similarity of circumstances experienced by the two
   countries."The ambassador indicates that "the conviction of the world
   public opinion is that Syria is a solution to many of the problems of the
   region." He notes that President al-Asad's visit "will open the door to
   the possibility of increasing the volume of trade exchange between the two
   countries, with the need for this to be preceded by sending economic and
   trade delegations from Syria to Brazil, and vice versa." (Description of
   source: Damascus Al-Watan Online in Arabic -- Website of the independent
   daily; URL:

   http://www.alwatan.sy/ http://www.alwatan.sy)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   14) Back to Top
   Argentina Political and Economic Issues 23 Jun 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Argentina - OSC Summary
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 18:02:10 GMT
   - Buenos Aires Clarin reports th at a plenary meeting of the Lower House
   Energy, Maritime Interests, and Foreign Relations Committees yesterday
   "unanimously" passed a bill that "prohibits all persons physical or
   juridical, national or foreign," from developing hydrocarbon activities on
   the Argentine continental shelf "without authorization." It also
   contemplates "tough sanctions" for companies that break the law. It goes
   to the floor today and could be approved if there is quorum to session.
   (OSC translating as LAP20100623021002) National Timerman Denies 'Parallel
   Diplomacy'

   - Buenos Aires La Nacion's Mariano Obarrio reports that with the evident
   desire to close the cabinet crisis unleashed by Jorge Taiana's surprising
   resignation as soon as possible, Cristina Kirchner took the oath of office
   yesterday from the new foreign minister, Hector Timerman, who made his
   contribution to removing the most conflictive issues from center stage and
   denied the existence of p arallel diplomacy with Venezuela. Meanwhile,
   Timerman traveled to New York last night for the UN Decolonization
   Committee meeting tomorrow, after which he will travel to Canada to
   participate with the president in the G-20 meeting. (Buenos Aires
   lanacion.com in Spanish -- Website of conservative, second
   highest-circulation daily; generally critical of government; URL:

   http://www.lanacion.com.ar/ http://www.lanacion.com.ar ) (OSC translating
   as LAP20100623021001) Ceremony Reportedly Lasts 'Four Minutes'

   - Buenos Aires La Nacion's Mariana Veron reports, in an article headlined
   "A ceremony of four minutes, without the joy or Kirchnerite euphoria,"
   that for the first time in the seven years of the Kirchnerite
   administration the swearing-in of a new minister was "not a fiesta"
   yesterday and, unlike any of the previous cabinet changes, there was a
   "climate of apathy and dejection" in the White Room, the least crowded in
   recent years: onl y about 80 persons. Its capacity is for over 200. The
   ruling-party activists, who always add "color" to the tensest moments, did
   not participate and the tension was "palpable." Meanwhile, the time that
   former President Nestor Kirchner dedicated to the few Mothers and
   Grandmothers of Plaza de Mayo, who came to accompany Timerman, contrasted
   with the "five seconds" that he took to greet his former foreign minister
   and although sources close to them denied that there was tension between
   them, they made no effort to display distension or warmth in front of the
   cameras. The president was "a little more cordial, but no less cutting"
   and after taking the oath from Timerman she went directly to Taiana,
   kissed him, and said "thanks for everything." "Thank you," stammered
   Taiana, whose smile was stiff. He was one of the first to leave,
   accompanied arm-in-arm by Defense Minister Nilda Garre and greeted by the
   "entire" ; cabinet, which was bidding him farewell amid the "resounding
   resignation" with which he "surprised" the officials last Friday. Clarin's
   Natasha Niebieskikwiat adds that the "coldness" toward Taiana in Casa
   Rosada yesterday and the fact that Kirchner did "not" greet him made
   "some" officials wonder if she or her husband decided the "reprimand" of
   Taiana last Friday. Meanwhile, Timerman has confirmed most of Taiana's
   officials and appointed Antonio Trombetta as his cabinet chief. Congress
   To Receive Former Ambassador to Venezuela With Sights on Kirchner, De Vido

   - Buenos Aires Clarin's Martin Bravo reports that Eduardo Sadous will be
   in the Lower House Foreign Relations Committee today. The session will be
   "secret" and the opposition considers that sufficient guarantee for
   Sadous, a career diplomat, to express everything that he knows without
   violating the confidentiality that Timerman demanded from him. Meanwhile,
   several opposition deputies stated yesterday that they would focus their
   questions on the "parallel embassy" in Caracas, in which Kirchner and
   Planning Minister Julio De Vido were reportedly involved. (Buenos Aires
   Clarin.com in Spanish -- Online version of highest-circulation,
   tabloid-format daily owned by the Clarin media group; generally critical
   of government; URL:

   http://www.clarin.com/ http://www.clarin.com ) Government Doubles Pressure
   on Sadous

   - Buenos Aires Clarin adds in a sidebar that Cabinet Chief Anibal
   Fernandez said yesterday that "neither the diplomat nor or any other
   official can break the secret about certain types of information that we
   are obliged by law to maintain in said state." Buenos Aires Governor Urges
   Officials To Enter Digital Era

   - Buenos Aires La Nacion's Pablo Morosi reports from La Plata that with
   his sights on next year's presidential elections, Daniel Scioli announced
   on his Twitter page yesterday, after a cabinet meeting, that he had
   instructed his officials to analyze the phenomenon of the social networks
   and to design the most effective way to utilize them "massively" in the
   different government areas. Former Opposition Allies Not To Meet

   - Buenos Aires La Nacion's Jaime Rosemberg reports that one year since
   their 2009 midterm election victory, Deputy Francisco de Narvaez (Federal
   Peronism-Buenos Aires) and City Mayor Mauricio Macri have rejected an
   invitation from Deputy Felipe Sola (Federal Peronism-Buenos Aires) to join
   him in San Nicolas next Monday for the "virtual" launching of his
   presidential candidacy and criticized his "having decided alone." Economic
   President Launches Credit Line for Farming Sector

   - Buenos Aires Clarin reports in a photo of a ceremony in Casa Rosada
   yesterday, that Cristina Kirchner presented a credit line for small- and
   medium-sized farmers and rural contractors to purchase n ational farming
   machinery. El Cronista adds that the credit is for 270 million pesos
   ($68.7 million) at 9% annually. This is the government's "third nod to
   this sector in less than 10 days." La Nacion adds that fights have broken
   out in the Argentine Agrarian Federation (FAA), and impacted on the
   Liaison Board, over the presence of one of its leaders in one of the
   ceremonies in which the president launched subsidies for farmers. (Buenos
   Aires Clarin.com in Spanish -- Online version of highest-circulation,
   tabloid-format daily owned by the Clarin media group; generally critical
   of government; URL:

   http://www.clarin.com/ http://www.clarin.com )

   President addressing farmers (Clarin)

   Government To Reform Farm Employment Law

   - Buenos Aires El Cronista adds that before yesterday's ceremony in Casa
   Rosada, Cristina Kirchner signed a bill to modify the Rural Worker Law and
   sent it to Congress. It aims at eliminating the so-called "sun-to-s un"
   working day on farms and to implement working days of eight hours, 44
   hours weekly, until 1300 on Saturday, and Sunday off. Labor Minister
   Carlos Tomada explained that the initiative intended to "cover an old debt
   that we had with the rural workers," 1.3 million persons, "replace a
   dictatorship law, and reverse the levels of rural workers' lack of
   protection and precarious employment." Trucker Boss 'Lowered Pretensions,'
   Signed for 25% Wage Hike

   - Buenos Aires Clarin's Carlos Galvan reports that General Workers Union
   (CGT) leader Hugo Moyano "lowered his pretensions" yesterday and signed an
   agreement for the Truckers Union for a wage increase of 25%, in three
   stages, which "can appear modest" if compared to what other unions got,
   but is in "total" alignment with what Casa Rosada considers an
   "appropriate increase." Tomada stressed "the efforts made by the parties
   to reach this agreement." However, the negotiation does not appear to have
   been "too complicated." Furthermore it was resolved in "less than two
   weeks." Meanwhile, faithful to his custom, Moyano negotiated "personally"
   with the sector businessmen. Not even his son Pablo participated. He is at
   the World Cup in South Africa and his brother Facundo was reportedly "on
   safari around there."

   Moyano and Tomada (Clarin)

   Trade Surplus Falls 25% in May

   - Buenos Aires El Cronista's Natalia Donato reports that in five months
   the trade surplus fell 27% on 2009 to $6.157 billion: the National
   Institute of Statistics and Census (Indec) announced yesterday that
   exports totaled $6.479 billion in May, 25% up year-on-year, and imports
   $4.574 billion, 72% up year-on-year: a surplus of $1.905 billion: 25.1%
   down on the $2.542 billion posted in May 2009. This fall could affect
   dollar entry in the second half of the year and put greater pressure on
   the exchange market, controlled thus far by the Central Bank (BCRA),
   despite sustained capital flight, which averages about $1 billion monthly.
   Cristina Kirchner seemed to reflect this concern yesterday when she said
   that it was of "key" importance to "continue substituting imports."
   (Buenos Aires El Cronista.com in Spanish -- Website of independent
   newspaper owned by Spain's Recoletos Group, focusing on financial
   information; URL:

   http://www.cronista.com/ http://www.cronista.com )

   "Collapse of the surplus" - Argentine trade balance, dollar

   million/billions, 2010 to end May (El Cronista)

   Central Bank Reinforces Coffers

   - Buenos Aires El Cronista reports that with the export sector continuing
   to liquidate intensely on the exchange market yesterday, the BCRA
   purchased $140 million and not only sustained the peso-dollar exchange
   rates, but also increased international reserves, which are now near $50
   billion and close to exc eeding the absolute record of $50.517 billion on
   27 March 2008. Economy Minister Announces 66% Swap Adherence, Operation
   Closed

   - Buenos Aires Telam reports at 1048 (1448 GMT) that in a press conference
   in the Economy Ministry, Amado Boudou has announced that "another $12.067
   billion entered the swap," "66% acceptance," stressed that that was
   "comfortably" above expectations, and announced, in reply to a question,
   that "we have taken the decision to maintain it closed." (Buenos Aires
   Telam in Spanish -- Official website of government-owned news agency; URL:

   http://www.telam.com.ar/ http://www.telam.com.ar ) Border dispute over
   pulp mill Cristina Kirchner, Jose Mujica Speak by Phone

   - Buenos Aires Clarin's Niebieskikwiat reports that the president and her
   Uruguayan counterpart spoke by phone last Monday and, according to
   important sources, she updated him on her cabinet changes. They also
   advanced in their "pos t-Botnia" relationship, as their inner circles call
   it, and in the creation of joint Uruguay River monitoring, which could
   include Brazil, although Brazilian sources consulted by Clarin displayed
   no interest in the initiative and stated that they had received no formal
   request, but they did display willingness to cooperate in "any diplomatic
   direction" that would help to unblock the long dispute in the Mercosur.
   Mayors Reinitiate Dialog

   - Buenos Aires El Cronista reports that Juan Jose Bahillo and Omar Lafluf,
   mayors of Gualeguaychu and Rio Negro, respectively, have reinitiated
   dialog "to work together," said Bahillo, who added that he asked Lafluf,
   whose department includes Fray Bentos, that Botnia would not transport
   merchandise for the paper-pulp mill on Highway 136 or the international
   bridge "not to create new points of tension" with the environmentalists.
   Lafluf considered the request "reasonable" and committed to med iating
   with the company.

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   15) Back to Top
   Heavy Rains, Floods Death Toll Rises to 44
   "Death Toll in Brazil Floods Climbs to 44" -- EFE Headline - EFE
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 17:40:53 GMT
   Emergency-management officials in Pernambuco say 15 people have died in
   the state and more than 42,000 have been forced to leave their homes.

   The situation is even worse in neighboring Alagoas, where 29 people are
   confirmed dead and 607 others remain missing, while 74,515 residents have
   lost their homes.

   Many of the state's towns were submerged as the Mundau and Paraiba surged
   to as much as 12 meters (39 feet) above normal levels. The floodwaters
   have begun to recede in some communities, leaving behind tons of garbage
   and debris.

   After a brief respite at the beginning of the week, the heavy rains
   resumed Tuesday night and forecasters are calling for continued wet
   weather.

   Brazil's armed forces are aiding police and firefighters in rescue and
   recovery efforts.

   Authorities are also using cadaver dogs to search for bodies, including
   some animals that did similar duty in Haiti after the 12 January
   earthquake. With many schools covered in mud and others pressed into
   service as shelters, the Alagoas education department moved up the break
   scheduled for July.

   Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva plans to visit the region
   Thursday to survey the damage.

   (Description of Source: Madrid EFE in English -- independent Spanish press
   agency)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
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   16) Back to Top
   Xinhua 'Interview': There Is Room for Trade Improvement Between Zimbabwe
   And China
   Xinhua "Interview": "There Is Room for Trade Improvement Between Zimbabwe
   And China" - Xinhua
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 17:41:55 GMT
   By Gretinah Machingura

   HARARE, June 23 (Xinhua) -- A senior Zimbabwean government official said
   on Wednesday that there is room for trade improvement between Zimbabwe and
   China given the two countries' long history of friendly bilateral
   relations.Zimbabwean Economic Planning and Investment Promotion Permanent
   Secretary Desire Sibanda told Xinhua in an interv iew that Zimbabwe is
   instituting measures to lure more Chinese investors into the country, and
   would soon conduct road shows in China to market its investment potential
   to the Asian giant."There are a number of African countries that are
   trading with China more than ourselves so we need to dramatically improve
   in that area," he said.He said the Zimbabwe Investment Authority, the
   country's investment promotion body, is currently being restructured into
   a one-stop investment shop to enhance efficiency. "China normally trades
   with countries that have economic zones. Zambia has economic zones where
   Chinese companies are operating so we also need to expedite
   operationalization of our one- stop investment shop to lure Chinese
   investors," Sibanda said.He said the Zimbabwen government would in the
   future open an investment office in China to coordinate Chinese investment
   into Zimbabwe, noting that countries such as Botswana have investment
   offices in the Asian co untry.While Sibanda could not provide latest trade
   figures between Zimbabwe and China, trade between the two countries was
   reported to have reached 500 million U.S. dollars in 2008.This was on the
   back of continued sound political ties between the two countries and the
   adoption of the "Look East" policy by the then government of President
   Robert Mugabe in 2003.Since the turn of the decade China has become one of
   Zimbabwe's business partners after Western countries started shunning the
   Southern African nation over alleged human rights abuses.The Asian giant
   has already emerged as the largest single importer of Zimbabwe's key
   export crop, tobacco. The Tobacco Industry and Marketing Board indicated
   in October last year that although China had not imported tobacco between
   May and September 2009, the country was still the number one importer with
   7. 281 tons.There are now many Chinese companies operating in Zimbabwe in
   such sectors as retail, mining, agriculture and man ufacturing.Sibanda
   said the Chinese were previously worried about the issue of the exchange
   rate and hyperinflation prevailing in the country prior to the adoption of
   multiple currencies early last year."But now those issues have been sorted
   out. There is no exchange rate risk in our economy now and the investment
   climate is highly conducive," he said.Sibanda said the positive growth in
   Gross Domestic Product has also made Zimbabwe an attractive investment
   destination.Zimbabwe's GDP has risen from negative growth rates of 10
   percent in 2008 to around 5 percent now, Sibanda said."The Chinese want to
   invest in growing economies and with our GDP now in the positive territory
   we believe we are now better placed to attract investment from China," he
   said.He said the interest by Chinese investors in Zimbabwe is also seen in
   the growing number of business delegations that started coming into the
   country soon after political and economic stability returned to the
   country following the formation of the inclusive government in February
   last year.Sibanda noted that global trade is increasingly moving to
   Brazil, China, Russia and India and he pointed out that it is imperative
   for Zimbabwe to follow the trend.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in
   English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences
   (New China News Agency))

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   17) Back to Top
   Brazil's Amorim Says Iran 'Must Respond' to Nuclear Concerns
   "Iran Must Respond to Nuclear Concerns: Brazil" -- AFP headline - AFP
   (North European Service)
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 13:36:42 GMT
   (Description of Source: Paris AFP in English -- North European Service of
   independent French press agency Agence France-Presse)

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   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   18) Back to Top
   Brazilian Foreign Minister Visits Bulgaria, Defends Nuclear Deal With Iran
   "Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Luiz Nunes Amorim Visits" -- BTA
   headline - BTA
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 12:26:33 GMT
   (Description of Source: Sofia BTA in English -- state-owned but
   politically neutral press agency)

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   urce cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   19) Back to Top
   Angolan President Arrives in Brazil on Official Visit
   Unattributed report: "Angolan President Dos Santos Arrives in Brazil" -
   PANA Online
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 12:27:34 GMT
   (Description of Source: Dakar PANA Online in English -- Website of the
   independent news agency with material from correspondents and news
   agencies throughout Africa; URL:
   http://www.panapress.com/english/index.htm)

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   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   20) Back to Top
   Kikwete Appoints New Envoys to Sweden, Canada
   Unattributed report: "Kikwete Transfers Ambassadors" - Daily News Online
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 11:31:19 GMT
   (Description of Source: Dar es Salaam Daily News Online in English --
   Website of the state-owned daily; URL: http://dailynews.co.tz)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   21) Back to Top
   News Roundup 22, 23 Jun
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov - Iran - OSC Summary
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 08:10:01 GMT
   The following is a roundup of reports appearing in the Iranian media
   sources in English, and news and commentaries published in non-US media on
   22 and 23 June 2010. This roundup is in the following sections: (Click on
   the links to go to the desired section) POLITICS/DIPLOMACY NUCLEAR ISSUE
   ECONOMY/ENERGY MILITARY/SECURITY TERRORISM/CRIME/NARCOTICS
   DISSENT/OPPOSITION SCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY SOCIETY/RELIGION HEALTH/MEDICINE
   CULTURE/MEDIA/SPORTS COMMENTARIES/ANALYSES/INTERVIEWS

   POLITICS/DIPLOMACY IRNA: "President Ahmadinejad receives Syrian VP"

   (Wed, 23 Jun) President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad received visiting Syrian
   Vice-President Farouq Ash-Shara here on Tuesday evening. In the meeting,
   President Ahmadinejad said that Iran and Syria have common view points on
   the world and regional issues and added that Tehran and Damascu s unity
   and unanimity deranged arrogance powers' plans. According to the report of
   the Presidential Office website, President Ahmadinejad said that the
   consolidated ties between the two countries are not political and
   sectional and according to the background whenever the two countries have
   entered an arena, it has always been with victory. He underlined that
   enemies in their own unclean goals to isolate Iran and Syria and
   stabilizie the Zionist regime in the region have failed and added that
   enemies are in a weak position, now. Confirming the Syrian VP's statement
   that the existence of the Zionist regime now is facing with a big question
   mark, Ahmadinejad said that this event is a reality and is a big victory
   which will be a preface for bigger events. Referring to the Tehran
   Declaration and appreciating Syria's supporting stance on Iran's nuclear
   program, Ahmadinejad said that as a matter of fact by the Tehran
   Declaration a new front was created against the arrogance powers and
   undoubtedly Iran and Syria are the central nucleus of the front. He
   concluded that the main factor which determines world future problems
   would be the existence of brotherly ties between independent and freedom
   loving countries which should be expanded and strengthened. Farouq
   ash-Shara, meanwhile, called the Tehran-Damascus relations strategic and
   said that goals and programs which the two countries follow are beneficial
   to the regional and world nations. He said that the regional nations
   should determine their own fate and added that this region owns rich
   resources and wealth and has been the birthplace of great civilizations,
   so these countries have the ability and capacity to build their own future
   without aliens' presence. Referring to the unjust measures of the UN
   Security Council, the Syrian VP said that the Security Council,
   International Atomic Energy Agency and other international organizations,
   related to the United Nations, whom had been created to solve wor ld
   problems as authorities should be obliged and committed to the frameworks
   which had been founded for. (Back to top) Press TV: "Iran students protest
   Majlis bill"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Hundreds of Iranian students have staged a demonstration in
   front of the Parliament in protest at a bill passed by lawmakers regarding
   the Islamic Azad University. The bill allows the University to donate its
   property worth $200 billion dollars for public purposes. The government
   says the bill violates the articles of association of the Supreme Council
   of Cultural Revolution. The body, chaired by President Mahmoud
   Ahmadinejad, supervises the country's universities. The ongoing
   controversy between the government and the Azad University started after
   the government decided to take control of the university. However,
   according to Khabar Online news service, Majlis members voted for the
   public endowment of the university's properties under the condition that
   the premises belong to the university's board of trustees. The Islamic
   Azad University, founded in 1982, is the country's largest private chain
   of universities that consists of 357 branches and satellite campuses
   throughout the country and an enrollment of 1.4 million students. In terms
   of enrollment, the university is the third largest university in the world
   after India's Indira Gandhi National Open University and Pakistan's Allama
   Iqbal Open University. (Back to top) Mehr News Agency: "Larijani calls
   harsh response to Azad University bill vindictive"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani has harshly criticized the
   opponents of a parliamentary bill on Islamic Azad University. The bill,
   which was approved on Sunday, allows Islamic Azad University to donate its
   properties for public purposes. The university's board of trustees had
   previously decided to endow the properties of the university. There has
   been strong opposition to the bill by some groups, especially those
   aligned to the administration, which claim it is in violation of the
   articles of association of the Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution.
   On Tuesday, Larijani said there is a difference between constructive
   criticism and disparaging remarks, and this should be remembered when
   assessing the performance of the branches of government. "If the norms are
   observed in the criticism of (government) branches, it will be good and
   will promote the progress of that branch, but (this should) not (be done)
   with bad language," Larijani stated in a speech to the lawmakers. Larijani
   said certain groups are trying to loudly blow the trumpet of their
   opposition in order to drown out the revolutionary voice of the parliament
   and called their response vindictive and ugly. The bill, if implemented,
   could enhance and empower the education system, he noted. Larijani also
   asserted that what the lawmakers chose to ratify, if endorsed by the
   Guardian Council, will come into force and should be r espected. However,
   in response to the parliament's ratification of the bill, a number of
   university students gathered outside the Majlis on Tuesday to voice their
   opposition to the bill. Some MPs also left the open session of the Majlis
   and joined the demonstration outside. The students also called for the
   resignation of Majlis Education and Research Committee Chairman Ali
   Abbaspour. (Back to top) IRNA: "Iran protests to Security Council over
   resolution on false claims"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Iran has protsted to United Nations Security Council over
   passing resulition 1929 on the basis of false accusations. Iran's Supreme
   National Security Council said in a letter to the UN Security Council that
   the resolution has been on the basis of false accusations and contrary to
   the expectations of the international community. (Back to top) Fars News
   Agency: "Iran renews offer to help US harness oil spill"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ra min Mehman-Parast
   underlined Tehran's technical capability to help the US control the oil
   spill in the Gulf of Mexico, and said Tehran is ready to study
   Washington's request for help in this regard. The issue will be studied if
   the US administration asks for it," Mehman-Parast said in his weekly press
   conference here in Tehran today, stressing that Iran has the required
   expertise and skillful human resources in this ground. The spokesman said
   that resolving the problem of the oil spill and the resulting slick in the
   Gulf of Mexico is a humanitarian issue that encourages all countries to
   provide the necessary aids to reduce the vast and drastic effects of the
   incident on the environment. The remarks by Mehman-Parast came a day after
   The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) announced that its experts are
   prepared to control the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. "The experience
   of Iranians' presence in curbing oil spills in a number of neighboring
   states in the Persi an Gulf, such as Kuwait, demonstrates Iranian
   capabilities and skills and the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps is ready
   to help curb the oil spill (in the Gulf of Mexico)," Commander of the
   IRGC's Khatam ol-Anbia Headquarters General Rostam Qassemi stated. Qassemi
   reminded the environmental threat posed by the oil spill to the Caribbean
   states and nations, and stated, "Despite new sanctions, the IRGC is
   prepared to fulfill its humanitarian duty in this regard and use its
   exclusive and indigenous capability in the Gulf of Mexico." Earlier on May
   24, Iranian Oil Minister Masoud Mir-Kazzemi had voiced the country's
   preparedness to aid the US in cleaning the massive oil spill in Mexico's
   Gulf Coast which threatens the surrounding environment. The BP-leased
   Deepwater Horizon rig exploded on April 20, killing 11 workers, and sank
   two days later. Ever since, hundreds of thousands of gallons of oil,
   perhaps even millions, have been spewing each day into the sea. The re
   sulting slick, now the size of a small country, threatens to leave
   Louisiana's fishing and coastal tourism industries in tatters, ruin
   pristine nature reserves, and cause decades of harm to the ecology of
   fragile marshes that are a haven for rare wildlife and migratory birds.
   The Obama administration has been forced to defend its response to the
   disaster as some Republicans have sought to portray it as its Katrina, an
   allusion to president Bush's mishandling of the response to the hurricane
   that devastated Louisiana in 2005. (Back to top) Fars News Agency:
   "Spokesman advises EU to take opportunity for cooperation with Iran"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehman-Parast asked
   the European countries not to lose the chance for expanding their
   cooperation with Tehran. "Europeans are expected to take the existing
   opportunities for developing cooperation and not to deprive themselves of
   this cooperation," Mehman-Parast told repor ters in his weekly press
   conference in Tehran on Tuesday. Asked about Iran's reaction to the
   implementation of the recent anti-Iran UN Security Council sanctions by
   Europe, he said the EU has not yet made a decision on the issue, but
   meantime stressed, "These paths will not lead to results." On French
   President Nicolas Sarkozy's preparedness to talk with Tehran on its
   nuclear issue within the framework of the International Atomic Energy
   Agency (IAEA), Mehman-Parast pointed out that such positions are in
   opposition to the French government's performance and compliance with the
   US policies for sanctioning Iran. Meantime, he announced Tehran's
   preparedness to attend all bilateral and multilateral talks if Iran's
   principled rights are secured in such negotiations. (Back to top) IRNA:
   "Iran hails Egypt's move to break Gaza siege"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehman-Parast said Tuesday
   that Iran hailed Egypt's recent move on opening of its borders with the
   Gaza Strip to transport humanitarian aid to the enclave. Following the
   Zionist regime's fatal attack on a peace flotilla which was sailing
   humanitarian aid to Gaza, Cairo decided earlier in June to open the Rafah
   border crossing with Gaza and end the Israeli blockade on the Palestinian
   territory. Speaking to reporters at his weekly press briefing,
   Mehman-Parast expressed hope that Cairo would pay due attention to the
   expectations of the international community as well as Egypt's historic
   duty for supporting the oppressed people of Gaza. Commenting on reports
   that said Iran was to send humanitarian aid for Gazans, Mehman-Parast said
   necessary arrangements were made by the government of Egypt for carrying
   the cargo into the Gaza Strip. (Back to top) Fars News Agency: "Iran to
   send aid cargo to Gaza next week"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Iran will send a convoy of humanitarian aids to the besieged
   Palestinians in the Gaza Strip next week. Iran's Red C rescent Society
   plans to send a ship carrying Iran's aids to the Gaza Strip, spokesman of
   the ship said on Tuesday, adding that the convoy is scheduled to leave the
   country's southern port city of Bandar Abbas next week. "The Iranian Red
   Crescent Society's aid ship, dubbed as 'Gaza Children Ship' and carrying
   1,100 tons of medicine and foodstuff, will leave the port of Bandar Abbas
   and the pier of Bahonar next week," Abdulrauf Adibzadeh said. "Five RC
   personnel and five reporters will also leave for Gaza on the ship," the
   spokesman stated, adding that Iran will officially issue the names and
   photos of the crews and passengers. In addition to 50 tons of medications,
   the ship will carry basic commodities and supplies needed by the besieged
   people, including blankets, cooking oil, canned food, detergents, flour,
   soap, sugar, water, children clothes, toys and balloons. Adibzadeh further
   said that the ship will have a 14-day voyage and all the necessity permis
   sions have already been Okayed. He noted that the cargo will respect all
   the international laws and regulations and will have no military support.
   (Back to top) Press TV: "Iran bashes UAE officials' behavior"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) A top Iranian official says 'irresponsible' remarks made by
   certain authorities of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will harm Tehran-Abu
   Dhabi relations. "A central plank of Teh ran's foreign policy is to
   enhance relations with neighbors and Muslim countries, and to promote
   unity in the Islamic community", spokesperson for the Iranian Parliament's
   National Security and Foreign Policy Committee Kazem Jalai told IRNA. He
   was talking in response to the UAE Federal National Council Speaker Abdul
   Aziz Al Ghurair's inappropriate behavior in a meeting of the
   Inter-Parliamentary Union's (IPU) Executive Committee in Dubai which
   resulted in the Iranian delegates walking out of the session. "Certain
   countries swayed by the US and other Western states promote Iranophobia in
   the region and across the world. They make undiplomatic remarks out of
   naivety and profiteering, which has a negative impact on reciprocal ties",
   said Jalali. Iran's representative to the Dubai meeting added the West
   seeks peace in the Middle East with the aim of selling military weapons
   and creating a false competition in the region to advance its own
   interests. "The UAE owes the better part of its economic development to
   Iran and Iranian investors", Jalali underlined. Unfortunately, he added,
   irresponsible behavior and comments by some UAE officials have created 'a
   wall of mistrust' in the court of Iranian public opinion. (Back to top)
   IRNA: "Rahimi: Iran calls for unified stands with Syria, Turkey, Iraq"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi said on Tuesday
   that ties between Iran and Syria are very consolidated and expressed the
   hope that a unified stands would be takeb by Iran, Syri a, Turkey and Iraq
   to help deepen such relations. Rahimi made the remarks in a meeting with
   visiting Syrian Vice President Farouq al Sharaa on Tuesday. The Islamic
   Republic of Tehran has always stood by Damascus at international
   gatherings and thanked Syria for its friendly and brotherly attitude to
   the Tehran Declaration, Rahimi said. The Islamic Republic of Iran has done
   its best to build confidence with the international community and Tehran
   Declaration proved the country's sincerity to this effect, he said.
   Referring to the attack of the Zionist regime on the Gaza aid flotilla, he
   said the inhuman behavior has brought the Zionists disgrace for its
   trampling upon all regulations of human society. The Islamic Republic of
   Iran and Syria are on the forefront of defending the oppressed Palestinian
   people, he said, adding that global developments have created a suitable
   opportunity for Iran, Syria and other freedom loving countries to help
   resolve the issue. "During my v isit to Syria, we made some very good
   decisions on economic issues," he said. The two sides are determined to
   further uphold and broaden current level of political relations, Rahimi
   said. Iran hopes that Syria will successfully re-take the occupied lands
   and celebrate the occasion in Golan Heights, he said. The Syrian vice
   president, for his part, praised Tehran Declaration and said "We believe
   that Iran's development belongs to all nations in the region." Iran and
   Syria have adopted similar stands on the issue of Palestine and the two
   countries through collective cooperation with other countries of the
   region such as Turkey and Iraq should thwart plots of the Zionists.
   Dispatch of Gaza flotilla has inflicted heavy blow on the Zionist regime
   and left crucial impacts on the global community, he said, adding that
   Iran and Syria through expansion of regional cooperation with Turkey and
   Brazil can neutralize pressures being exerted by the enemies and bring
   prosper ity and dignity for freedom loving nations. Ties between Iran and
   Syria are very amicable and deep-rooted, he said and called for more
   cooperation in dealing with existing challenges in the region. (Back to
   top) IRNA: "Mashaei: Ties between Iran, Kuwait a model for regional
   countries"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Presidential Advisor and Head of Presidential Office
   Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei said on Tuesday that the broad-based and
   deep-rooted relations between Iran and Kuwait could turn into an exemplary
   model for other countries of the region. Mashaei made the remarks in a
   meeting with the Kuwaiti emir's special envoy Tareq Abdullah Al Faraj who
   is carrying a written message for the Iranian president. Existing ties
   between Iran and Kuwait are historical and brotherly and the two sides
   enjoy ample potentials that could be used to help broaden mutual and
   regional cooperation, Mashaei said. Tehran is ready to bolster all out
   relations with Kuwait, he pointed out. The Middle East region is now the
   most significant spot in the world and the countries of the region enjoy
   high capabilities for expansion of mutual as well as international
   cooperation, he said. Iran and Kuwait could play a leading role in
   regional developments, he said. The Kuwaiti envoy, for his part, called
   for expansion of relations between the two countries and said no one can
   sow seeds of discord between them. Given profound cultural and historical
   relations between the two countries, he said Kuwait is determined to
   broaden mutual and regional cooperation with Iran mainly in economic
   fields. (Back to top) Fars News Agency: "Speaker: US prestige harmed by
   UNSC resolution"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani said the recent
   US-sponsored UN Security Council resolution against Iran harmed
   Washington's prestige and creditability. Speaking in a meeting between
   members of the parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy
   Commission and head of I ran's representative offices at the UN, Larijani
   reminded Washington's demands for a nuclear deal with Iran through Brazil
   and Turkey, and said after the two reached a deal with Tehran, the US
   acted the opposite and sponsored a resolution against Iran. "The US has
   even forgotten its pledges to Brazil and Turkey. This is not political
   cleverness; it only promotes mistrust in the international stage," he
   said. West's reaction not only surprised, but also angered Turkish and
   Brazilian officials who had started talks with Tehran at the US request.
   Ankara and Brasilia expected a positive reaction from the US and its
   western allies after they struck the nuclear swap deal with Tehran, and
   they were astonished to see Washington's belligerent approach and adoption
   of fresh sanctions against Iran. The US-sponsored sanctions resolution was
   approved at the UN Security Council on June 9 with Brazil and Turkey's
   opposition and Lebanon's abstention. Larijani said the already deep
   mistrust between Iran and the US was even made deeper after Washington's
   recent move. He also pointed to the sanctions resolution and said despite
   western claims that the resolution is against the Iranian government not
   against the nation, inspecting ships, confiscating cargos and sanctioning
   transactions imposes limitations on the people. Iran is under four rounds
   of UN Security Council sanctions for turning down West's calls to give up
   its right of uranium enrichment, saying the demand is politically tainted
   and illogical. Tehran says sanctions and pressures merely consolidate
   Iranians' national resolve to continue the path. (Back to top) Press TV:
   "Anti-Hezbollah campaign to face lawsuit"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) A member of the Lebanese parliament says the resistance
   movement of Hezbollah might file a lawsuit against those trying to distort
   the group's image. Hezbollah parliament member Nawaf Mousawi told the
   Lebanese media on Monday that the lawsuit would targe t "anyone whom
   investigation shows to have taken funds from the US" for political use.
   Earlier last week, the lawmaker said USD 500 million had been spent by the
   US and certain Arab countries to bribe people into criticizing Hezbollah.
   Mousawi implicated several Lebanese municipality officials and other
   political figures in the country in the bribery case. He also noted that
   the money was spent through the United States Agency for International
   Development. Meanwhile, the US embassy in Lebanon issued a statement to
   dismiss the allegation, saying that the US was committed to supporting
   Lebanon, its government, and its people. "We provided this support
   transparently to the people and media, unlike others. The US is committed
   to continuing this support, and these baseless accusations will not change
   that," the statement read. (Back to top) Fars News Agency: "Former Speaker
   calls for expansion of all-out ties between Iran, Algeria"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Former Speaker of the Iranian Parliament Gholam Ali Haddad
   Adel stressed the necessity for the development of relations between Iran
   and Algeria in all the different political, economic and cultural fields.
   Haddad Adel, who is now the head of the parliament's cultural commission,
   made the remarks in a meeting with the visiting Head of Algeria-Iran
   Parliamentary Friendship Group, Zobaideh Kharbash, here in Tehran on
   Tuesday. Haddad Adel hailed the good and friendly relations between the
   two countries, and said Iranian people respect the Algerian nation not
   only for the country's historical record and geographical importance but
   also for the Algerians' war of independence against colonialist powers. He
   also pointed to the growing tend of bilateral ties and mutual cooperation
   between Iran and Algeria, and underscored the necessity for the expansion
   of parliamentary relations between the two nations. Kharbash, for her
   part, described the relations between Iran and Algeria a s friendly and
   age-old, and called for an increase in reciprocal visits by the two
   countries' officials in a bid to deepen the bilateral ties. She also
   referred to the common positions of both countries on many international
   issues, including Palestine, and said the Algerian government believes
   that the Gaza siege should be ended. (Back to top) NUCLEAR ISSUE Press TV:
   "Russia seeks US 'guarantees' on Iran"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Russia wants the US to guarantee that its unilateral
   sanctions imposed against Iran over its nuclear program will not affect
   Russian companies, a Kremlin aid says. Sergei Prikhodko, a senior Kremlin
   adviser on foreign policy, told reporters in Moscow on Tuesday that Russia
   has been affected by previous UN Security Council sanctions on Iran. A
   number of laws introduced in Germany to implement the (sanctions)
   resolution appeared to ban the transportation of Russia's cargo via
   Germany to Iran, he said. "There have been no such cases from the US side
   so far, but we want to prevent them and have some guarantees concerning
   the issue," RIA Novosti quoted Prikhodko as saying on Tuesday. The UN
   Security Council imposed a fourth round of sanctions against Iran on June
   9, despite opposition from Turkey and Brazil. On Thursday, Russian
   President Dmitry Medvedev criticized unilateral US and European sanctions
   against Iran, warning the move might worsen the situation. Russia has
   called the unilateral sanctions "disappointing," saying such moves could
   undermine future cooperation on Iran. "We are extremely disappointed that
   neither the United States nor the European Union heeds our calls to
   refrain from such moves," Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov
   said last week. (Back to top) IRNA: "IAEA continues non-stop nuclear
   inspections in Iran--envoy"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Vienna -- Iran's envoy to International Atomic Energy Agency
   (IAEA) in Vienna said Tuesday the agency cont inues its ceaseless
   inspections of the nuclear sites in the country. In an exclusive interview
   with IRNA, Ali-Asghar Soltaniyeh said Iran cooperates with IAEA and its
   inspectors within the framework of the regulations of the
   Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). "If IAEA inspectors do not fulfill their
   responsibilities and give untrue or incomplete reports which cause
   jeopardizing cooperation between Iran and the IAEA, Tehran will demand
   crossing off their names from the list of Iran-related inspectors," he
   said. He underlined that new inspectors can surely do the job with no
   interrupton in the inspection process. Soltaniyeh said that two IAEA
   inspectors have already been eliminated from the list for the same reason.
   (Back to top) Press TV: "'IAEA needs to be run professionally'"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Iran's Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki says Director
   General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Yukiya Amano
   should run the agency with a prof essional approach. Mottaki made the
   remarks in the wake of Tehran's decision to bar the entrance of two UN
   nuclear inspectors to Iran who had provided the agency with false
   information on Iran's nuclear program. "This is actually a bylaw notice to
   Amano to take care that his inspectors do not violate the regulations of
   the international body," said Mottaki in a televised interview late
   Monday. Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Ali Akbar Salehi
   announced on Monday that the two inspectors would be barred from entering
   the country for passing false information about Iran's nuclear program to
   the IAEA and revealing information precipitately. Tehran has asked the
   IAEA to appoint two new inspectors for the job. Mottaki further reiterated
   that the fresh sanctions imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council (UNSC)
   would be to no avail and said they would be a heavy defeat for Western
   states "which have been trying to impede Iran's peaceful nuclear activiti
   es." The UNSC endorsed a US-sponsored sanctions resolution against Iran on
   June 9 over its uranium enrichment program. The US-proposed resolution was
   passed with 12 votes after UNSC member states Brazil and Turkey voted
   against the new sanctions and Lebanon abstained from voting. (Back to top)
   Press TV: "Mottaki: France N-talk offer, positive"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki describes French
   President Nicolas Sarkozy's offer to hold nuclear talks with Iran as a
   "positive approach." "We believe there are serious signs that France is
   willing to start an independent approach in some areas," ISNA quoted
   Mottaki as saying in a televised interview late Monday. "Some French
   officials have such will and we consider the approach as positive. If more
   serious signs emerge, then Europe can enter a new phase to play role (on
   the nuclear issue)," the senior official added. Sarkozy's offer to hold
   talks with th e Islamic Republic over its nuclear program follows a very
   recent UN Security Council resolution against the country over its uranium
   enrichment program. In a meeting with his Russian counterpart Dmitry
   Medvedev, Sarkozy had expressed France's readiness to start talks with
   Iran "without delay." According to Sarkozy's spokesman, negotiations with
   Iran would be held "on the basis of Brazilian and Turkish efforts"
   regarding the fuel swap with Tehran "and the response sent out by Russia,
   France and the United States." (Back to top) Press TV: "Brazil hails
   Iran's nuclear stance"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim says Iran's
   willingness to adhere to the Tehran nuclear declaration, despite recent
   sanctions, is "positive." "There is a will to maintain the deal as a base,
   which is positive because after what happened in the (UN) Security
   Council, you could fear a less flexible reaction on Iran's side,&amp; quot;
   Amorim told reporters during a visit to Bucharest on Tuesday. "I am
   encouraged by the fact that in spite of a lot of rhetoric, which is
   natural, President Ahmadinejad said that the Tehran declaration (as the
   nuclear fuel swap deal is known) was still on the table," AFP quoted the
   top Brazilian diplomat as saying... On Tuesday, Turkish Foreign Minister
   Ahmet Davutoglu voiced Ankara's commitment to work with Brazil in seeking
   a solution to Iran's nuclear issue. "We still believe a solution can be
   found. We are determined to continue our efforts...Brazil will continue to
   be with us," Davutoglu said. (Back to top) Mehr News Agency: "Rejection of
   two IAEA inspectors justified: official"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast has
   stated that Iran's request for the replacement of two IAEA inspectors is
   justified. This request is within the rights of the Islamic Republic and
   the inspectors from the Internation al Atomic Energy Agency should
   thoroughly perform their duties, Mehmanparast said at his weekly press
   briefing on Tuesday. Asked why Iran denied two of the agency's inspectors
   access to the country's nuclear facilities, he said promulgating false
   information and leaking reports to irrelevant bodies were outside the
   purview of the inspectors' duties. Thus, Tehran has asked the IAEA to
   dispatch new inspectors, he added. The Foreign Ministry spokesman
   maintained that Iran is not opposed to inspections and is committed to
   cooperating with the agency. Elsewhere in his remarks, Mehmanparast
   dismissed the United Nations sanctions resolution against Iran as
   propaganda but added that it will affect Tehran's ties with countries that
   endorsed the sanctions through their yes votes. He also confirmed reports
   that Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has written letters to 12
   members of the UN Security Council regarding the sanctions resolution,
   saying the letters will soon be subm itted. The Iranian Foreign Ministry
   spokesman also stated that the letters of the Vienna Group (Russia,
   France, and the United States), which were sent on June 9 in reply to
   Iran's letter about the Tehran declaration on a nuclear fuel swap, mainly
   dealt with side issues. The Islamic Republic's response to the Vienna
   Group is being finalized and will soon be sent, he added. Mehmanparast
   said that the issues surrounding the nuclear fuel exchange should not be
   overshadowed by extralegal demands. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman
   stated that the request made by some Western countries for further
   negotiation with Iran over its nuclear activities shortly after the
   adoption of the anti-Iranian resolution was in line with the West's carrot
   and stick approach, adding that such a policy only works in the West
   itself. The West's approach will only complicate matters, he observed.
   Commenting on the similar appeal made by European Union foreign policy
   chief Catherine Ashton for more talks on the issue, Mehmanparast said she
   had failed to seize an opportunity that had been on the table for a long
   time. She has sent a letter to Tehran calling for the resumption of
   negotiation and will get her response soon, he said. Mehmanparast pointed
   out that the Tehran declaration provided a unique opportunity for
   negotiation with Iran. On the European Union's decision to impose
   unilateral sanctions on Iran, he advised the Europeans to choose their
   path carefully. They should not undermine their cooperation with Iran
   through imposing unlawful sanctions on the country, he added. (Back to
   top) ECONOMY/ENERGY IRNA: "100,000-rial bank notes to arrive in market
   tomorrow"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) The Central Bank of Iran is to present the market with
   100,000-rial bank notes as of Wednesday June 23, it was announced here on
   Tuesday. CBI Secretary-General Mahmoud Ahmadi made the remarks while
   talking to reporters on the sidelines of a ceremony to unveil the paper
   mon ey. He added that 10 million pieces of the 100,000-rial bank note has
   so far been printed. (Back to top) Press TV: "Pakistan not pulling out of
   Iran deal: PM"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Pakistan has reiterated that Islamabad will not back out of
   a 7.6-billion dollar deal with Iran, stressing that the country has no
   obligations to follow US decisions. "We are not bound to implement US
   decisions," Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani said during a
   working lunch with lawmakers on Tuesday, a Press TV correspondent
   reported. Gilani made the remarks one day after reports said he had
   promised to respect a pending US legislation expected to tighten
   Washington's unilateral restrictions against Iran. "We will follow if the
   UN imposes these sanctions," the premier stressed, adding that he was
   seeking to clarify his earlier statements and "get it right." On June 12,
   the energy-starved South Asian country penned a gas pipeline deal with
   neighbor ing Iran, under which Tehran agrees to deliver 21.2 million cubic
   meters (750 million cubic feet) of natural gas per day to Pakistan from
   2014. US President Barack Obama's special envoy to Afghanistan and
   Pakistan Richard Holbrooke said Monday he had warned Pakistan that the
   expected sanctions could be "comprehensive" and target any countries or
   firms involved in the deal. The White House, seeking to increase pressure
   on Tehran, imposed its first set of unilateral sanctions immediately after
   the UN Security Council adopted a fourth round of punitive measure against
   Iran over its nuclear program. Iran firmly rejects Western allegations
   that its nuclear program harbors a secret military drive and says it aims
   to employ the peaceful aspects of the technology for civilian electricity
   generation and medical research. (Back to top) Fars News Agency:; "Iran
   dismisses reports on halt in electricity exports to Iraq"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Iran on Tuesday rejected s ome media reports alleging that
   the country has stopped supplying its western neighbor, Iraq, with
   electricity. "Iran has not stopped export of electricity to Iraq and 500
   mw of electricity is being exported to the country at present," Deputy
   Energy Minister for Electricity and Energy Affairs Mohammad Behzad told
   FNA. "The export of electricity to Iraq is carried out at five or six
   different points at present and what is heard about stopping Iran's
   electricity exports from (the western city of) Kermanshah to Diyala
   (province) in Iraq is not true," Behzad added. Meantime, he didn't dismiss
   the possibility of a drop in the voltage of the transferred electricity as
   a result of the hot summertime weather. Iraqi state television had
   allegedly reported that Iran had stopped supplying Iraq's national grid
   with 250 megawatts it had previously been sending down a power line from
   the Iranian province of Kermanshah to the neighboring Diyala province. The
   television report gave no other immediate details of the supply agreement
   between the two countries or the reason for its suspension by Iran. (Back
   to top) Fars News Agency: "Turkmenistan rejects reports on stop of oil
   swap with Iran"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Turkmenistan's Foreign Ministry strongly rejected alleged
   media reports that the country has or will stop swap of oil with Iran. A
   senior Turkmen Foreign Ministry spokesman announced in a news conference
   in Ashgabat on Monday that the alleged report about Turkmenistan's
   decision to halt oil swap with Iran "is not true". Last Thursday, Reuters
   had quoted an unknown source as claiming that Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan
   may redirect oil exports to Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiisk rather
   than shipping it to Iran due to the new round of UN Security Council
   sanctions against Iran. Reuters also alleged that the Kazakh and Turkmen
   barrels would be directed through the Baku-Makhachkala-Novorossiisk
   pipeline originat ing in the Azeri capital on the shore of the Caspian
   Sea. Iran, which faces new UN Security Council sanctions, has swap
   arrangements with Central Asian producers under which it imports crude
   into Caspian ports and supplies equivalent barrels to buyers and tanker
   ships in the Persian Gulf. Kazakhstan has been pumping oil to Iran at a
   rate of 1.2 million tons per year. Turkmenistan exports 2 million tons of
   oil each year, but it is unclear how much goes to Iran. (Back to top) The
   Peninsula: "Iran allots land for Qatar's trade center"

   (Wed, 23 Jun) DOHA: The Iranian Ambassador to Qatar, Abdullah Sohrabi,
   yesterday said that Iran has allotted land at Bushehr for setting up
   Qatar's permanent trade centre. The planned centre will be set over 20,000
   square metres and is expected to boost trade between the two countries.
   Sohrabi visited The Peninsula newspaper's office yesterday and met its
   Editor-in-Chief Khaled Al Sayed. The move, the ambassador said, comes in k
   eeping with an agreement signed between the two counties several years
   ago. As for the Iranian trade centre in Qatar, Sohrabi said that the issue
   was discussed with the Chairman of Qatar Chamber of Commerce and Industry
   (QCCI). "QCCI Chairman has promised to speed up the establishment of the
   trade centre," he added. (Back to top) IRNA: "Iran labor minister in
   Ankara for bilateral talks"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Ankara -- Minister of Labor and Social Affairs Abdolreza
   Sheikholeslami, heading a delegation, arrived here on Tuesday to review
   the issues of mutual interest with Turkish officials. The minister's visit
   is taking place at the official invitation of his Turkish counterpart Omer
   Dincer. Sheikholeslami and Dincer are to discuss Tehran-Ankara's growing
   trade and economic cooperation later today. Talking to IRNA upon arrival
   at Ankara's airport, the Iranian minister said that his current visit is
   aimed at further expansion of all-out ties between the tw o sides. He
   announced that a protocol on bilateral labor cooperation is to be inked by
   the two countries. On Iran's great potentials in the areas of labor and
   social affairs, the minister said the Islamic Republic of Iran is first in
   vocational training in the Mideast region. During his three-day official
   visit, the Iranian minister is to meet with Turkish Minister of Public
   Works and Housing Mustafa Demir. He is also to meet and confer with
   Turkish chairman of Iran-Turkey Joint Economic and Trade Commission Cevdet
   Yilmaz. (Back to top) Fars News Agency: "Iran's steel production exceeds
   1mln tons for 2nd consecutive month"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) The World Steel Association announced on Tuesday that Iran
   produced more than a million tons of steel in May, showing a stable
   increase in the country's steel production for the second month in row.
   "The production of steel in Iran in May 2010 showed an 8% increase in
   comparison with the same period last year and reach ed 1.027mln tons," the
   worldsteel announced in its report. Based on the report, Iran had produced
   948,000 tons of steel in May 2009. "It is for the second consecutive month
   that production of steel in Iran surpasses one million tons," the report
   said, adding, "Iran's steel production had reached 1.033mln tons in
   April." Meantime, Iran's official reports had earlier announced that the
   total volume of steel production in the country reached 1.993mln tons in
   the first two months of the current Iranian year, showing a 6% increase
   compared with the same period last year. A statement issued by the Iranian
   Mines and Mining Industries Development and Renovation Organization
   (IMIDRO) earlier this month said that exports value of Iran's raw steel
   had also witnessed a 19% increase during the first two months of the
   current Iranian year (started on March 21). Iran has exported 138,776 tons
   of raw steel ($81,481,000) that shows a 19% increase in terms of value. I
   ran's former First Vice-President Parviz Davoudi last year had announced
   the country's plans for achieving self-sufficiency in steel production,
   saying that Iran intended to become the world's fourth steel producer in
   the near future. (Back to top) Fars News Agency: "Iran, Italy study
   cooperation between Free Trade Zones"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Iranian Ambassador to Roma Seyed Mohammad Ali Hosseini and
   authorities of Italy's free port of Trieste discussed ways to expand trade
   ties between the two sides. Hosseini was in Trieste to visit the port's
   infrastructures and meet with the relevant authorities, including
   President of the Port of Trieste Claudio Boniciolli. During the meeting,
   the two sides discussed cooperation between the Italian port and Iran's
   free trade zones, specially southern trade zones of Kish Island and Bandar
   Abbas. Elaborating on the potentials and facilities of Iran's free trade
   zones, Hosseini briefed the Italian side about tourism-related infr
   astructures in Kish Island. The Iranian and Italian officials also studied
   the possibility of cooperation between the two countries' shipping lines
   in transferring cargos and passengers. The two sides also underlined the
   necessity for an exchange of delegations in specific fields. (Back to top)
   MILITARY/SECURITY Press TV: "Israel to spy on Iran with new satellite"

   (Wed, 23 Jun) Israel says it has launched a new spy satellite in a
   southern military base which will reportedly enable Tel Aviv to spy on
   Iran's nuclear facilities. "A few minutes ago...Israel launched the Ofek-9
   (Horizon-9) satellite from the Palmachim base," AFP quoted the Israeli
   Foreign Ministry as saying in a statement on Tuesday. "The results of the
   launch are being examined by the technical team," the statement added. The
   ministry did not elaborate on the satellite, but Israel's public radio
   said the device, like its predecessors in the Ofek series, is cable of
   taking h igh resolution pictures. Developed by Israel Aircraft Industries
   and launched on a Shavit rocket, the satellite is aimed at monitoring
   Iran's nuclear program, the radio added. According to director of Israel's
   military space program Chaim Eshed, the Ofek-9 -- which is Israel's sixth
   spy satellite in space -- is expected to increase the speed at which
   Israel can receive high-resolution images of subjects of interest. Israel,
   which is the Middle East's sole wielder of some 200 to 300 nuclear
   warheads, accuses Iran of making efforts to produce nuclear weapons. This
   is while the International Atomic Energy Agency has in numerous reports
   asserted that its inspectors and surveillance equipment have found no
   evidence of diversion in Iran's declared nuclear material. (Back to top)

   http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100622/wl--mideast--afp/mideastisraelspyspace--20100622195314
   AFP: "Israel launches spy satellite: defence ministry Press TV: "Iran
   renews call for S.300 de livery"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) The Iranian defense minister says Russia will be responsible
   for the "damages" caused by its failure to deliver the S-300 missile
   defense system to Iran. Ahmad Vahidi said on Tuesday that the delivery of
   the air-defense systems would not violate Russian or international laws.
   His remarks come five days after Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign
   Affairs Andrey Denisov said that Moscow would freeze the delivery of the
   S-300 air-defense missiles system to Iran as it was against the new round
   of UN sanctions on Tehran... "Russia has a duty to fulfill its
   obligations... Implementing the S-300 deal is not against Russian laws or
   i nternational regulations," Vahidi was quoted by Fars News Agency as
   saying. "It is obvious that (Russia) is responsible for the damages caused
   by its failure to implement the deal," he added. Vahidi also said that
   Russia would soon announce its official stance on the issue and that Iran
   would make no further comments until then. (Back to top) Press TV: "IRGC
   ready to tackle new threats"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) A top commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps
   (IRGC) says the IRGC develops its strategy based on new threats. "The
   IRGC's Navy will formulate a strategy proportional to new threats", IRGC's
   Navy Commander Rear Admiral Ali Fadawi was quoted by IRNA as saying on
   Tuesday. He was referring to new threats by the US and the Zionist regime
   of Israel. "The trend of modernization, equipment and overhaul at the IRGC
   is gaining momentum", the admiral further told an annual conference of the
   IRGC's Navy. He underscored the IRGC's Navy should channel its
   potentialities into countering new threats. (Back to top) Fars News
   Agency: "Iranian Navy ready to inspect foreign vessels"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Iranian Army's Navy Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah
   Sayyari announced that the Navy is prepared to inspect the foreign ves
   sels passing through Iran's territorial waters once required by the
   parliament. "In case of approval by the Islamic Consultative Assembly, we
   will reciprocate any possible threat of inspection of Iranian cargo
   ships," Sayyari said in a meeting with parliament's National Security and
   Foreign Policy Commission Chairman Alaeddin Boroujerdi and Defense
   Commission members here on Monday. The UN Security Council approved a
   sanctions resolution against Iran on June 9 which envisages inspection of
   Iranian vessels. Also during the meeting, Boroujerdi reiterated that if
   any country embarks on inspecting Iranian vessels, the Navy will not allow
   its ships to pass through the country's territorial waters without
   inspection. "Unilateral inspection (of Iranian ships) is not compatible
   with the Islamic Republic's might and our national pride," he added.
   Elsewhere, he referred to the deployment of alien forces in the region,
   and stressed that military presence of the arro gant and trans-regional
   powers in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman is not acceptable to Iran.
   "We will not allow them to weaken the Islamic Republic of Iran's might
   through their presence," Boroujerdi added. (Back to top) IRNA: "Iran-Oman
   border guards sign cooperation agreement"

   (Wed, 23 Jun) Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province -- Commander of Hormuzgan
   border guard announced signing of a cooperation agreement between Iran and
   Oman border guards. On the sidelines of the closing ceremony of the fifth
   joint meeting of commanders of Iran and Oman border guards on Tuesday,
   Colonel Elyas Rastin told reporters that considering more than 470
   kilometers of common sea border between Iran and Oman Iran is willing to
   expand cooperation in protecting this common border. He also said that in
   recent years several joint meetings have been held between the two
   countries in this regard. The Iranian official added that one of the most
   important agreements in th e latest meeting was in the field of fishery.
   Upon the agreement, if fishermen from each side enter mistakenly into the
   other side's littoral waters, they should be extradited to their own
   country for investigation. Intensification of anti-drug missions within
   common sea border, exchanging border information, and prevention of
   organized crimes in this region were among other agreements reached in the
   meeting. The fifth joint meeting of Iran-Oman border guards started here
   on Sunday June 20, 2010. (Back to top) TERRORISM/CRIME/NARCOTICS Press TV:
   "Iran puts 10 Rigi accomplices on trial"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) An Iranian official says 10 suspected Jundallah terrorists
   are facing trial for plotting attacks in retaliation for the arrest of
   their leader, Abdolmalek Rigi. Iran executed the ringleader of the
   Pakistan-based Jundallah terrorist group on Sunday, three months after his
   arrest by Iranian security forces on February 23 on a flight from Dubai to
   Kyrgyzstan. " ;The public hearing of 10 accomplices of Abdolmalek Rigi
   opens later this evening," Head of the Sistan-Baluchestan Justice
   Department Ebrahim Hamidi said on Tuesday. The co-conspirators are charged
   with Moharebeh (waging war on God) for their membership in and active
   support of the terrorist group. Under Iranian law, Moharebeh is a crime
   punishable by the death penalty. "Following Abdolmalek Rigi's arrest a
   number of (Jundallah) terrorists sought to enter the country, but their
   efforts were unsuccessful due to...the timely intervention of the
   intelligence forces, the military and the Islamic Revolution Guards
   Corps," Hamidi explained , saying that the 10 suspects were arrested
   during these operations. Hamidi also rejected as without basis "Western
   claims that Rigi was not permitted legal council," stressing that the
   Islamic Republic treats all cases without bias. The judiciary's website
   also announced that following Rigi's execution, many of his form er
   associates had repented, and that authorities were working on a program
   that would grant temporary clemency to rebels who lay down arms. It added
   that while up to 300 people had already received pardons and lived with
   their families, another 100 cases were being processed. Rigi was charged
   with 79 counts of armed robbery, bombing operations, and armed attacks on
   civilians. His brother, Abdulhamid, was executed in May. (Back to top)
   Press TV: "Iran blames US, UK for Afghan drugs"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Chief of Iran's anti-narcotics police blames US and Britain
   for the persisting drug problem in Afghanistan charging that their
   anti-narcotics policies involves deceptions and double standards. Brig.
   Gen. Hamidreza Hosseinabadi said in a meeting with deputy director of
   Russia's Anti-narcotics Agency Oleg Sukhanov that US and Britain have
   abandoned the fight against narcotics and are supposedly only after
   terrorism, despite the fact that terrorism in Afghanistan is f ueled and
   financed by drug trafficking, IRNA reported Tuesday. Referring to UN
   figures showing that over 10,000 tons of opium is kept in the warehouses
   of drug dealers in the country, he emphasized that the US-led foreign
   forces have not done a thing towards destroying such vast amounts of
   drugs. Hosseinabadi asserted that he believes that the transit of drugs
   out of Afghanistan is principally done through military bases in the
   country which remain in control of American and British forces. The
   Russian official thanked Hosseinabadi for Iran's efforts in fighting drugs
   and emphasized on the need for the cooperation of regional countries in
   containing the drug flow. Noting that there are over two million drug
   addicts in Russia, 90 percent of whom consume Heroin, he added that 30
   percent of Afghanistan's drugs are transited to Central Asia through its
   northern borders and it would not be possible to contain this major
   outflow of narcotics without the cooperation of Iran and int ernational
   bodies. (Back to top) Fars News Agency: 'Police seize 205 kg of opium in
   southeastern Iran"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Iran's law enforcement police squads have seized large
   amounts of illicit drugs in a single operation in the country's
   southeastern province of Sistan and Balouchestan, a senior provincial
   police chief announced on Tuesday. Commander of Sistan and Balouchestan's
   Public Security Police Masoud Heidari announced that 205 kg of opium was
   seized from a truck on Zahedan-Bam road. Heidari added that after a series
   of intelligent operations police forces found out that drug-traffickers
   planned to smuggle large amounts of opium from the region to the central
   Iran, and they subsequently intensified security measures along the road
   for several days. Following the intensification of the security measures,
   police forces suspected the truck and discovered the opium cargo
   skillfully planted inside the vehicle, he added. Zahedan is the capital
   city of the Sistan and Balouchestan province. Southeastern Iran is close
   to the world's number one opium producer, Afghanistan, and
   drug-traffickers view this region as the start of a transit route to drug
   markets in Europe. (Back to top) SOCIETY/RELIGION IRNA: "Supreme Leader
   condolence message for demise of late Imam son-in-law"

   (Wed, 23 Jun) Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali
   Khamenei in a message condoled with late Imam Khomeini's family for the
   demise of Imam's son in-law Mr. Aarabi. In his message, the supreme leader
   asked for patience for demised's family members and requested divine
   blessing and forgiveness for the demised person. (Back to top) HEALTH
   /MEDICINE Press TV: "Iranians find new strains of tuberculosis"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Iranian researchers have discovered two new strains of
   tubercles bacillus, which are believed to be resistant to the existing
   treatments. Ali Akbar Velayati, the head of Tuberculosis and Respirator y
   Disorders Research Center, told IRIB News Agency that neither of the
   existing medications is capable of treating the newly-discovered strains
   of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. He added that the two strains were
   discovered by Dr Farnian from Tuberculosis and Respiratory Disorders
   Research Center in two separate joint studies conducted in collaboration
   with Malaysian and Belarus researchers. Velayati went on to say that
   Iranian scientists have also succeeded in producing nano-crystals which
   can penetrate the membrane of the drug-resistant tubercles bacillus,
   adding that this finding can pave the way for the development of new
   anti-TB medication. The head of Tuberculosis and Respiratory Disorders
   Research Center added that drug-resistant tuberculosis has become a global
   concern, turning tuberculosis into a fatal disease. (Back to top)
   CULTURE/MEDIA/SPORTS Press TV: "Tehran exhibits World War II docs"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Tehran's Sa'ad Abad Cultural and Historical Co mplex has
   displayed documents related to damages imposed on Iran as a result of the
   Second World War. The exhibition was inaugurated on Tuesday morning in a
   wartime shelter which was built by the Pahlavi monarch in the 1940s. "Out
   of four thousand documents revealing the destructions imposed on Iran in
   World War II, 275 were selected of which only 120 were put on display due
   to space constraints," said Rozita Salehi Nezami, the head of the
   exhibition. "The documents reveal that despite Iran's neutral stance at
   the time of the war, we suffered great damages and loss," CHTN quoted
   Salehi Nezami as saying. "The photos show the presence of allies in Iran
   and also the demolition of hospitals and railways are among the many
   damages we suffered during the war," she further explained. On the
   sidelines of the inauguration ceremony Hamid Baqaie, Iran's Vice-President
   and the head of Iran's Cultural Heritage Organization, said that "Despite
   the huge a mount of losses, Iran has not received any compensation." The
   top official called for legal action to seek compensation for the damage.
   (Back to top) COMMENTARIES/ANALYSES/INTERVIEWS The Nation (Pakistan):
   "Pakistan to follow UN not US sanctions against Iran: PM" by Abrar Saeed

   (Wed, 23 Jun) ISLAMABAD - Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani has said
   that Pakistan is not bound to follow US sanctions on Iran, however, it
   will stand by its international obligation in case UN comes up with
   sanctions on Iran."As far as US is concerned we are not bound to follow
   the sanctions, but if these are slapped by the United Nations, we will
   consider the same under the obligation of international law," Prime
   Minister Gilani said.Addressing a luncheon given in honour of
   parliamentarians here on Tuesday, the Prime Minister clarified his remarks
   made on Monday at Garhi Khuda Bux about the impact on the over US $7
   billion Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project if sanctions were imposed by
   the US or the UN on Iran.In his address to the MPs, the Premier said that
   all state institutions should work within their constitutional ambit for
   achieving the collective good and for the welfare of the masses.
   Dispelling the impression of any clash like situation between the
   institutions, he said that the Government enjoyed good relations with all
   the state institutions and quickly added that certain elements wanted to
   create conflict between the Government and the Judiciary but all such
   attempts would fail. He further said that the Judiciary was trying to
   bring about social justice in the society.Prime Minister Gilani said the
   people of Pakistan had elected its representatives for a period of five
   years with a view to solve their problems.Gilani said the Government had
   never claimed that there were no problems or it knew the solution to all
   ills, but said that it was learning from experience and its mistakes.He
   said the Government had good ties w ith the Opposition, media and all
   other pillars of the state and believed that the country could progress
   and move forward by adhering to the policy of reconciliation and
   consensus.He said the Government with the support of all political forces
   in the country forged a strong policy against the militants and the entire
   nation stood as one. He further said that it was the strength of the
   masses that the Government had frustrated those elements which had
   challenged the writ of the Government in Swat and Malakand. (Back to top)
   TheNation: "Pakistan not bound to US sanctions on Iran: Gilani"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani says Pakistan will go
   ahead with a plan to import natural gas from Iran even if the US levies
   additional sanctions on the Mideast country. Speaking at a luncheon to
   parliamentarians on Tuesday, Gilani said, "We are not bound to implement
   the US decisions. We will follow if the United Nations impose the
   sanctions." Gi lani's comments Tuesday come two days after the U.S.
   special envoy to Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke, said new sanctions being
   finalized by Congress could affect the deal with Iran. The prime minister
   said Pakistan would reconsider the gas deal if it violated U.N. sanctions,
   but not those levied unilaterally by the U.S. (Back to top) The Nation
   Editorial: "Yielding to pressure"

   (Wed, 23 Jun) ONE day US representative Richard Holbrooke makes a public
   statement before the media that his country has no objection to the
   Iranian gas pipeline project; the very next day, he backtracks, very
   likely on being upbraided by Washington, and qualifies it with the remark
   that the US was drafting a legislation against Iran, which might
   jeopardise it. Then, while at Multan, Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood
   Qureshi sharply reacts by saying, "we have to look after our interests".
   He was confident that the project did not come under the purview of the UN
   sanctions that, in any case, Pakistan would follow, giving the clear
   impression that it has taken the decision to go ahead, whatever the
   American law might say. The nation, not only seething with anger at the
   government's obsequious attitude to the US but also under stress for a
   long list of worries and desperately wanting to get rid of the agony of
   loadshedding, was elated at this posture, which reflected the need to
   serve the national interest and befitted the behaviour of a sovereign
   state.Sadly, however, that feeling was not to last long. Soon afterwards,
   the official view took a sharp turn, and a tame acceptance of the US
   pressure became evident. All that talk of fiercely preserving our national
   interest and sovereign right in the conduct of relations with any country
   and the nation's euphoria that at last Pakistan was coming into its own,
   abruptly ended as Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani told newsmen at Garhi
   Khuda Bux that Pakistan would abide by the American sanctions i.e. as
   stipul ated in the legislation on the anvil in the US. Blatantly denying
   the stark reality that has, of late, become characteristic of Prime
   Minister's utterances, he maintained, "we will not act under anyone's
   dictation." (Back to top) The News (Pakistan): "Taking dictation"

   (Wed, 23 Jun) The possibility that our government is more pliant to the
   interests of the US than to its own people was driven home strongly by the
   prime minister's unexpected comments on Monday in Garhi Khuda Bux. He
   stated that Pakistan was likely to abide by US sanctions on Iran - a move
   that would put an end to the $ 7.6 billion gas pipeline project with Iran.
   Confusingly, on Tuesday Mr Gilani appeared to contradict himself by saying
   that Pakistan was not bound to follow the restrictions placed on Iran by
   the US, and that we would consider the implementation of sanctions in the
   light of our 'international obligations'. Be that as it may, it is obvious
   the indication that the fina l signatures may not be put on the deal came
   in response to pressure from US Special Envoy Richard Holbrooke who was
   recently in Islamabad.Scrapping the deal would mean a still more acute
   energy crisis in the country. The pipeline is essential to meeting our
   energy needs over the next two decades. The agreement with Tehran was
   close to being finalized. For some time, Iran has been asking Pakistan to
   finalize this deal. One wonders why this was not done faster - before
   Washington could twist arms with so much force. Even now, there is nothing
   to prevent Islamabad from going ahead to buy gas from Iran. Why Pakistan,
   as a sovereign state, should feel compelled to follow the US lead on Iran
   is a question that will undoubtedly be put to the prime minister and other
   government members. The lack of power to run mills and machines has
   already inflicted massive losses and left thousands workless. People elect
   governments to protect their interests. Mr Gilani's remarks suggest this
   on e is doing just the opposite. We urge the government to review any
   decision taken in this respect. It is vital that the welfare of the people
   of Pakistan be put ahead of all else. It is also important that regional
   ties be strengthened. The PM emphasized this himself with reference to
   India. It holds equally true as far as ties go with Iran. The scrapping of
   the deal, after it has been announced amidst much fanfare, will do nothing
   to build ties with Tehran and has already evoked angry voices across
   Pakistan. (Back to top) AFP: "UAE applies tougher measures on Iran trade"

   (Wed, 23 Jun) firms in the United Arab Emirates are increasingly coming
   under tougher measures in line with UN sanctions against Tehran over its
   nuclear drive, a senior Iranian businessman said on Tuesday."We are
   observing a very strict application of the UN sanctions against Iran,"
   Morteza Masoumzadeh, vice-president of the Iranian Business Council in
   Dubai, told AFP.Masoumzade h said the implementation of sanctions started
   about two years ago but have "become tougher in the past couple of months
   especially at Dubai ports.""All containers that arrive to the UAE for
   Iranian traders and which are normally sent to Iran by smaller vessels,
   have now to be unloaded and put into new containers, which cost the
   traders 1,000 extra dollars per container," he said.On June 9, the UN
   Security Council slapped a fourth round of sanctions on Iran over its
   controversial nuclear drive, this time tightening the noose on military
   and financial transactions.The resolution bans the sale to Iran of eight
   new types of heavy weapons and applies new restrictions on Iranian
   investments abroad.For years, Iran maintained active trade relations with
   Dubai, one of seven emirates making up the UAE, with the trade volume
   estimated at about 10 billion dollars a year, mostly of Iranian
   imports.Masoumzadeh said newly arriving Iranian merchants are facing
   several r estrictions as many of them are denied a license to operate
   while others have to undergo tougher procedures.These measures "will
   affect the overall trade relations between the UAE and Iran," estimated to
   have dropped to seven billion dollars last year from about 10 billion
   dollars previously, he said.The "UAE is no longer Iran's first trade
   partner as it has slipped to the third place," Masoumzadeh said.The
   Dubai-based Gulf News daily on Monday quoted an unnamed UAE official as
   saying the Gulf state has closed down 40 international and local firms as
   part of a crackdown on companies that violate UN sanctions on Iran.These
   companies have been dealing in "dual-use and dangerous materials banned
   under UN resolutions and the nuclear non-proliferation treaty," the
   official said.Masoumzadeh however said he was unaware of any closures
   among the 1,000 companies that come under the Iranian Business
   Council."There are 8,000 Iranian companies in the U AE out of which nearly
   1,000 are members of the IBC. However, none of the alleged 40 Iranian
   companies that they were shut down were members of the IBC," he said."I
   have no information about any of those companies that has been closed."
   (Back to top) The Gazette (Canada): "Canada strengthens Iranian sanctions;
   Activists urge even toughter measures" by Juliet O'Neill and Norma
   Greenaway

   (Wed, 23 Jun) Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced a tightening of
   Canadian sanctions targeting Iran's nuclear industry yesterday, just days
   before he is to host a G8 summit where heightened pressure on Iran will be
   a prominent international security theme.The measures to implement a
   recent United Nations Security Council resolution will have little if any
   impact on Canada's economic relationship with Iran, comprising mostly
   Canadian grain exports.Iranian-born human rights activist Nazanin
   Afshin-Jam and Liberal MP Irwin Cotler also released a report endorsed by
   about 100 scholars, activists and parliamentarians -including three former
   Canadian prime ministers -calling for broader, tougher sanctions to punish
   the Iranian regime for systemic and widespread human rights
   violations.However, analyst Anthony Seaboyer, a Queen's University expert
   on Iran's nuclear program, said Canada's compliance with UN sanctions
   against Iran's nuclear pursuits may be undermined by the federal
   government's plan to sign a civilian nuclear agreement next week with
   India -a country that has not signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty.Iran is
   a signatory to the treaty, but is accused of breaching it by pursuing
   nuclear weapons production. Signatories are not allowed to develop weapons
   if they don't already have them and signatories are not supposed to
   support civilian nuclear progra

   22) Back to Top
   Taiwan-made Shirts Worn By Nine Teams In 2010 World Cup
   By Chao Yu-fan and Frances Huang - Central News Agency
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 05:13:45 GMT
   Brussels, June 23 (CNA) -- Nine of the soccer teams in the 2010 World Cup
   are wearing uniforms made of recycled materials manufactured by Taiwanese
   textile companies, the European Parliament magazine reported recently.

   Wang Chen-tai, head of the news division at the Taipei Representative
   Office in the EU and Belgium, was quoted in the magazine as saying that
   while Taiwan does not have a team in the World Cup, it has supplied
   uniforms for the international sports event.Wang said the uniforms are
   evidence of Taiwan's cutting-edge technology in the textile sector and its
   commitment to reducing carbon emissions and protecting the global
   environment.The Taiwan sportswear supplied to the nine teams and retailers
   were made from 13 million recycled polyethylene terephthalate (PET)
   bottles, with each sports shirt requiring eight recycled PET bottles on
   average, he said.The World Cup teams wearing the Taiwan-made sports
   uniforms are Brazil, the Netherlands, Portugal, the United States, South
   Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Serbia and Slovakia.The manufacturing
   process involved breaking down the PET bottles which were then extruded
   into polyester fiber and spun into fabric, according to the Taiwan Textile
   Research Institute (TTRI).To color the shirts, the Taiwan manufacturers
   employed a dyeing technology that meets global green standards, which is
   an indication that Taiwan has become a world leader in that particular
   production area, the institute said.It took years of research by the
   Taiwan textile sector and the TTRI to develop that manufacturing
   technology, it added.Apart from its entry into the world's premier soccer
   competition, Wang said, Taiwan-made environmentally friendly sportswear
   has also become popular among multinational sports goods
   brands.(Description of Sou rce: Taipei Central News Agency in English --
   "Central News Agency (CNA)," Taiwan's major state-run press agency;
   generally favors ruling administration in its coverage of domestic and
   international affairs; URL: http://www.cna.com.tw)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   23) Back to Top
   Observers Blame Kim Jong Il for DPRK's 'Foolish' World Cup Tactics
   Unattributed report: "Kim Jong-il Blamed For N.Korea's Foolish World Cup
   Tactics" - Chosun Ilbo Online
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 06:43:03 GMT
   A source who knows Kim Jong-hun's playing style very well said that the
   match against Portugal was not played in a way the North Korean coach
   wanted and that he must have been pressured from someone outside. "Kim
   Jong-hun, who is composed and laid-back, adheres to defense-oriented
   tactics since he was formerly a defender, but North Korea played an
   unreasonable offense-oriented tactics at the time when the gap was
   widening," the source said.It appears that North Korea had high hopes of
   the game, which it broadcast live for the first time in its history. Kim
   Yong-hyun, a professor at Dongguk University, said, "The North Korean
   leadership seems to have wanted to consolidate its hold and look for ways
   to turn the tables through a victory in the World Cup as it is struggling
   both economically and diplomatically." Another government official said,
   "The brave display of discipline against Brazil on June 16 raised the bar
   for the North Korean team and instilled extravagant hopes in people."The
   atmosphere in the North is said to be subdu ed after the rout. Kim
   Sung-min, who heads radio channel Free North Korea Radio, said, "We
   contacted North Koreans, and they said that they feel let down and upset.
   There are people who said they were so upset that they drank themselves
   senseless and that they can never forgive the players."

   (Description of Source: Seoul Chosun Ilbo Online in English -- English
   website carrying English summaries and full translations of vernacular
   hard copy items of the largest and oldest daily Chosun Ilbo, which is
   conservative in editorial orientation -- strongly nationalistic,
   anti-North Korea, and generally pro-US; URL: http://english.chosun.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   24) Back to Top
   Xinhua 'Roundup': Exports, Manufacturing Boost Mexico's Economic Recovery
   Xinhua "Roundup": "Exports, Manufacturing Boost Mexico's Economic
   Recovery" - Xinhua
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 05:34:00 GMT
   MEXICO CITY, June 22 (Xinhua) -- Mexico's exports and manufacturing
   industry gained momentum in the last six months, giving the country's
   economy a lift.

   Mexico's National Statistics Agency (NSA) reported this week the country's
   exports registered a year-on-year growth of 23.6 percent in the first
   quarter, up from 7.3 percent a quarter earlier.In response, Banamex,
   Mexico's second largest bank, commented that "the rapid expansion of auto
   sales overseas and growth in manufacturing are pushing export growth."The
   most significant manufacturing growth was registered in the production of
   cars and trucks, which was completely pushed by U.S. de mand.There are
   also signs of recovery in maquilas, the country's small factories that
   import raw materials or semi-finished goods and export consumer goods to
   the United States."The auto sector is showing growing exports and
   production," Carlos Gonzalez Martinez, chief economist at Scotiabank
   Inverlat, told Xinhua, adding that "maquila employment is also showing a
   small recovery over the last two or three months."The Mexican Auto
   Industry Association reported this month that auto production surged 65.3
   percent in May compared with a year earlier, while exports increased 73.9
   percent.Also in June, the NSA reported that employment by manufacturers,
   maquilas, and export service providers, the so-called IMMEX grouping,
   climbed 6.2 percent in March compared with a year earlier. In Chihuahua, a
   state most closely linked to U.S.-bound exports, IMMEX employment rose by
   14.1 percent.The IMMEX survey covered nearly 5,300 businesses across the
   nation, but 75 percent of the businesses are concentrated in eight states
   -- Chihuahua, Baja California, Nuevo Leon, Tamaulipas, Coahuila, the state
   of Mexico, Jalisco and Sonora. Both Baja California and Nuevo Leon
   reported double-digit employment increases.Mexico is emerging from a slump
   that wiped off 10.3 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) in the
   second quarter of 2009, its worst period, in the aftermath of the
   financial crisis in the U.S. housing industry.Many Mexican banks are owned
   by U.S. and Spanish banks, which were hard hit by the collapsing property
   market in the U.S. As a result, problems north of the border were quickly
   felt by Mexican manufacturers and consumers. Exports suffered a decline of
   15.2 percent during January 2009, their worst month.As the crisis hit, the
   Mexican government worked hard to find buyers for its products apart from
   the United States, which buys around 80 percent of all Mexican exports,
   reaching out to France and Brazil via government export promotio n agency
   ProMexico.Other nations in Latin America experienced less dramatic
   economic shocks thanks to a looser link to the United States. Brazil, with
   14 percent of its exports going to the United States, experienced a merely
   0.2-percent economic decline during 2009, according to the Brazilian
   Institute of Geography and Statistics.While this year's figures are
   impressive, experts believe the Mexican economy will continue to suffer
   from its excessive dependence on the United States.However, analysts said
   the government's efforts to diversify its trade partners are expected to
   pay off and give the country a more stable and sustainable export
   pattern.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's
   official news service for English-language audiences (New China News
   Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   25) Back to Top
   Brazil Condemns Sanctions Imposed on Syria
   "Brazil Condemns Sanctions Imposed on Syria" -- NOW Lebanon Headline - NOW
   Lebanon
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 10:00:34 GMT
   Brazilian Ambassador to Syria Edgar Antonio Cassiano told Syrian newspaper

   Al-Watan on Wednesday that his country condemns all sanctions imposed on
   Syria,"since we realize that (this step) is not a way to resolve disputes
   betweenstates." He added Syrian President Bashar al-Assads expected visit
   to Brazil isof upmost importance.He also said that Brazil decided to push
   for a nuclear swap deal between Iran,Turkey and Brazil in order to reach a
   peaceful solution to Tehrans nucleardrive, which western countries have
   said aims to build a nuclear bomb.T he UN security Council imposed a
   fourth round of sanctions on Iran over itsnuclear program earlier this
   month despite the three-party agreement to sendIrans uranium abroad for
   enrichment.Regarding Israel, the ambassador said Brasilia condemns all
   forms of violence,"especially the Israeli offensive on Gaza (two years
   ago). We reiterate ourrejection to such actions."-NOW Lebanon(Description
   of Source: Beirut NOW Lebanon in English -- A privately-funded pro-14
   March coalition, anti-Syria news website; URL: www.nowlebanon.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   26) Back to Top
   Brazil Economic Issues 21-22 Jun 10
   . - Brazil -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 05:29:22 GMT
   - Sao Paulo Agencia Brasil reports on 22 June that according to data from
   the Central Bank (BC)'s weekly Focus bulletin with projections from the
   financial market on the key indicators of the Brazilian economy, Brazil's
   economic growth will reach 7.06% this year, up from the previous
   projection of 6.99%. According to the report, this is the 14% consecutive
   increase in projections. Story adds that the projection for 2011 was
   maintained at 4.5%. (Brasilia Agencia Brasil WWW-Text in Portuguese --
   Government-owned news agency. URL: as of filing date:
   http://www.agenciabrasil.gov.br/) Mantega Says Brazil To React To Increase
   in Real Value

   - Brasilia Correio Braziliense's Gabriel Capriolli and Vera Batista report
   on 22 June that Finance Minister Guido Mantega stated that the government
   has tools to avoid a massive inflow of dollars in case the European
   economy recovers. "When the European economy recovers, and it seems that
   it is, there will be pressure with the inflow of funds to Brazil. We might
   then record a valuation in our currency, which of course we will try to
   prevent," he stated. Mantega also deemed positive the possibility that
   China will adopt a more flexible exchange rate and allow the fluctuation
   of the currency, but complained of the slow pace of the process. (Brasilia
   Correio Braziliense Online in Portuguese -- Website of pro-government
   daily generally differs from printed version, which is available on site
   to subscribers; URL:

   http://www.correiobraziliense.com.br/ http://www.correiobraziliense.com.br
   ) Stock Exchange Increases Following China's Decision To Adopt Flexible
   Exchange Rate - Sao Paulo O Estado de S. Paulo's Claudia Violante reports
   on 22 June that China's decision to adopt a flexible exchange rate for the
   yuan has led to a positive start to the week in the Sao Paulo Stock
   Exchange (Bovespa), which increased ye sterday pulled by Vale and steel
   company stocks. (Sao Paulo O Estado de S. Paulo digital in Portuguese --
   Website of conservative, influential daily, critical of the government;
   URL:

   http://www.estadao.com.br/ http://www.estadao.com.br ) Vale to Invest $90
   Billion in 5 Years

   - Sao Paulo Valor reports on 22 June that Vale Company is preparing the
   investment plan worth $90 billion for the next 5 year, 70% of which in
   Brazil. According to the report, some $40 billion will be invested in new
   iron ore projects and the company plans to increase production from 300
   million to 450 million tons per year until 2014. (Sao Paulo Valor Online
   in Portuguese - Website of financial daily published jointly by the Folha
   and Globo media conglomerates; URL:

   http://www.valoronline.com.br http://www.valoronline.com.br ) Petrobras
   Announces $224 Billion Investment Plan

   - Sao Paulo O Estado de S. Paulo's Kelly Lima reports on 21 June that the
   Brazilian Petroleum Corporat ion (Petrobras) maintained its investment
   plans close to the volume that had been approved in March by the managing
   board and the company announced today that it will invest $224 billion
   from 2010 to 2014, $212.3 billion of which in Brazil and $11.7 billion (5%
   of the total) in the international area. According to the report, the
   volume announced represents an average investment volume of $44.8 billion
   per year. In related news, another report by Kelly Lima in O Estado on 21
   June adds that the Petrobras business plan for 2010-2014 maintained the
   company's growth targets at a rate of 9.4% per year until 2014 or 7.1% per
   year by 2020. According to the report, the company's oil production target
   is 3.9 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2014 and a projected
   5.4 million in 2020, namely 2.98 million barrels per day in Brazil in 2014
   and 3.95 mil lion barrels in 2014. Trade Surplus Amounts to $806 Million
   in Third Week of June

   - Sao Paulo O Estado de S. Paulo's Sa ndra Manfrini reports on 21 June
   that the Brazilian trade balance recorded a surplus of $806 million in the
   third week of June (14 to 20) according to data released on 21 June by the
   Ministry of Development, Industry, and Foreign Trade (MDIC). According to
   the report, in five business days, exports amounted to $4.075 billion and
   imports to $3.269 billion. Mantega Deems Chinese Decision on Exchange Rate
   'Good Start'

   - Sao Paulo O Estado de S. Paulo's Adriana Fernandes reports on 21 June
   that according to Mantega, China's decision to work toward a more flexible
   exchange rate for its currency is a good start, but its impact on the
   global exchange rate balance will depend on the speed with which this will
   take place. (OSC is translating this item) Analysts Expect 'Soft Landing'
   for Brazilian Economy Following Excessive Growth

   - Sao Paulo O Estado de S. Paulo's Fernando Dantas reports on 21 June that
   according to most analysts, the Brazilian economy is expected to h ave a
   "soft landing" after the excessive growth in early 2010, which means that
   the scenario starting late this year and particularly in 2011 is not
   expected to be bad, but not enthusiastic either. Op-Ed Discusses
   Perceptions Between US, Brazil

   - Sao Paulo Valor carries an op-ed on 21 June by Sergio Leo on the
   diplomatic and trade issues between Brazil and the United States.

   (OSC is translating this item)

   The following media were scanned and no file worthy items were noted:

   (Sao Paulo Folha de Sao Paulo Online in Portuguese - Website of generally
   critical of the government, top-circulation newspaper; URL:
   http:www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp)

   (Description of source: Sao Paulo Brasil Economico - Online version of
   economic daily; URL:

   http://www.brasileconomico.com.br www.brasileconomico.com.br )

   (Rio de Janeiro JB Online in Portuguese - Website of center-right
   commercial daily affiliated to the Catholic Church; URL:

   http://jbonline.terra.com.br http://jbonline.terra.com.br )(Rio de Janeiro
   O Globo Online in Portuguese -- Website of Rio de Janeiro's top
   circulation daily, part of the Globo media conglomerate; URL:

   http://oglobo.globo.com http://oglobo.globo.com )(Porto Alegre Zero Hora
   (Internet version-WWW) --- Porto Alegre's leading daily

   http://zerohora.com.br/ URL:http://zerohora.com.br )

   (Brasilia Jornal de Brasilia (Internet Version-WWW) in Portuguese ---
   Brasilia daily URLhttp://www.jornaldebrasilia.com.br/)

   (Sao Paulo Agencia Estado in Portuguese - Center-right, largely
   pro-administration news agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.
</description>
    <date>2010-06-24 12:30:04</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-02 04:00:00</releasedate>
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  <doc>
    <id>824597</id>
    <title>RUS/RUSSIA/FORMER SOVIET UNION
</title>
    <description>   Table of Contents for Russia

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   1) Obama's Afghanistan Strategy Not Working, Review Needed
   Editorial: "The Crisis of Obama's Plan for Afghanistan"
   2) Zarubezhneft To Participate In Developing Gas In SVietnam Shelf
   3) Greek Weekly Describes New Scene Following Liberalization of Natural
   Gas Market
   Report by Thodhoris Panagoulis: "Liberalization Lights Up the Natural Gas
   Market".
   4) FYI -- Iran To Reply to Vienna Group's Request for Nuclear Fuel Swap
   Talks
   5) Chernobyl Children Denied British Visas - Newspaper
   6) Russian pundits comment on TV attack on Belarusian leader
   7) (News Focus) N. Korea's Overtures Put S. Korea in Dilemma Over Nuclear
   Talks
   8) Visit of US Secretary of State to Poland, Ukraine, Transcaucasus
   Examined in Light of 'Reset' With Russia
   Article by Aleksandr Gabuyev, Georgiy Dvali, Tbilisi; Rafael Mustafayev,
   Baku; Ayk Dzhanpopadyan, Yerevan: "Reset Bypassing Russia: Hillary Clinton
   Reminds Ukraine and the Transcaucasus of the United States"
   9) Japan Plotted to Take Korean Emperor Gojong to Its Territory: Report
   10) Sakhalin Energy Consigns 100Th Tanker With Oil
   11) Construction Of Major Polyvinyl Chloride Factory To Begin In Volga
   Area
   12) Kuwaiti Leadership Cables Russian President on Nat''l Day
   "Kuwaiti Leadership Cables Russian President on Nat''l Day" -- KUNA
   Headline
   13) Russia's Amur Tigers Barely Surviving Heat At Tehran Zoo
   14) US Wants Better Relations With Russia, Won't Stop Support To Georgia -
   Diplomat
   15) Changing Nature, Pace of System of International Relations Eyed
   Article by Fedor Lukyanov, under the rubric &amp;qu ot;Authors": "The World Is
   Changing Its Skin"
   16) Spanish Fans In Moscow Celebrating Spanish Team's Victory In World Cup
   17) Plenty of Red Meat To Be Available Ahead of Ramadan
   Plenty of Red Meat To Be Available Ahead of Ramadan -- Jordan Times
   Headline
   18) Putin Congratulates Workers Of Fishing Industry On Fishermen Day
   19) One Police Killed, Two Wounded In Makhachkala
   20) Assistant Prosecutor, Criminal Police Chief Wounded In N Caucasus
   21) Siberian Region To Mark Tomato Day
   22) Vietnamese Communist Party's Sec Gen To Visit Forestry Academy In
   Petersburg
   23) Moscow Court To Make Public Verdict On Arts Exhibition Organizers
   24) Prosecution official, child, woman injured in two attacks in Russia's
   Dagestan
   25) Technical Flight To Test New Ru nway At Novosibirsk Int'l Airport
   26) Report Recalls Russian Spies' Attempt To Infiltrate Czech Army Top
   Brass in 2009
   Report by Jan Gazdik: "Russian Spies Penetrated All the Way to the Czech
   Army Command"
   27) Repair Teams Continue Restoring Damaged Railway In N Caucasus
   28) Suspected rebel shot dead, two police injured in blast in Russia's
   Dagestan
   29) Russian TV screens big report on Vostok-2010 exercise
   30) Spain Win 2010 World Cup
   31) Russian finance minister labelled as 'leader of the opposition' by
   Putin's party
   32) Memorial Human Rights Activists Fear for Their Safety in Chechnya
   Article by Sofiya Sardzhveladze: "Kadyrov Pointed out 'Enemies of the
   People' to Residents of Chechnya"
   33) Putin's Support of Medvedev's Reprimands to Ministries Shows Tandem
   Relations
   Comm entary by Tatyana Stanovaya: "Reprimands for Presidential
   Inconvenience" -- taken from html version of source provided by ISP
   34) Czech Tatra Truck Maker Seeks To Establish Assembly Plant in Russia
   "Tatra Wants To Assemble Lorries in Russia" -- Czech Happenings headline
   35) Almost 50% Of All Crimes In Russia Committed In Large Cities -
   Official
   36) Yantar Shipyard Building Oceanographic Vessel For Russian Defense
   Ministry
   37) UVS Tech Show Said Proves Lag in Drones Sector, Solutions Suggested
   Article by Vladimir Shcherbakov: "The aviation 'lacking in the cockpit,'
   or in search for 'Mister UAV.' Why Russia keeps buying drones abroad?"
   38) Russia Opens 2,000 Criminal Cases Over Breach Of Smoking Mixtures Ban
   39) About 30 States Confirm Participation In Defense And Security 2010
   Show
   40) Mos cow Weathermen Issue Storm Warning
   41) Vologda Oblast Military Unit Conscripts Have Not Been Paid Since
   January
   Article by military commentator Vyacheslav Ismailov: "The Army and
   Poverty"
   42) Kyrgyzstan May Allow Second Russian Military Base
   Report by Grigoriy Mikhaylov and Viktoriya Panfilova, under the rubric
   "CIS": "Kyrgyzstan Is Using Russia as a Shield"
   43) Local leader denies rights activists in danger in Chechnya
   44) US Interested In Spy Swap For Getting Back Four People - Holder - 2
   45) ISS Crew Welcomes Guests Of Open-air Rock Festival In Tver Region
   46) Moscow Plays Host To 34Th World Diamond Congress
   47) Over 150,000 Attend Open-air Rock Festival In Tver Region
   48) Criminal Case Opened Over Railroad Track Explosion In Dagestan
   49) US Interested In Spy Swap For Getting Back Four People - Holder
   50) Army prosecutors in Russian Urals launch probe into bullying claims
   51) Russian leader to talk to state TV boss about idea of 'youth talk
   show'
   52) Russian president considers challenges facing media industry
   53) Czech Business Considers Ulyanovsk Region As Very Promising Territory
   54) Bashkortostan President's Son Steps Down as Deputy Following Media
   Criticism
   Article by Yelizaveta Surnacheva: "Son Behind Father"
   55) First Electricity-generating Facility Of Polar Urals Project Launched
   In Yamal
   56) Informal CIS summit in Ukraine focuses on trade, infrastructure
   57) Beijing Plans To Reach $60-Bln Turnover In Russia-China Trade By
   Yearend
   58) First Project Of Glonass For Agriculture Starts In Kemerovo Reg ion
   59) USA Interested In Russian Entry Into WTO - Assistant Secretary
   60) Estonian Commentary Questions Russias Motives in Construction of
   Baltiiskii NPP
   Commentary by Jaanus Piirsalu: "Russia Pushing Baltic Countries Into Using
   Electricity Produced in Russia While Lithuanians Cannot Reach Agreement"
   61) Direct Talks With Israel Are Waste Of Time/energy Under
   62) Russian state TV pulses with suspicion over US, UK choice of spy-swap
   four
   63) Contract On Work At New Block Of Vietnam Shelf To Be Signed In October
   64) Railroad Track Damaged In Explosion Being Repaired In Dagestan
   65) Govt To Raise Prestige Of Fishermen's Difficult Work-vice-premier
   66) Russian media industry honours top executives
   67) RF, Vietnam Sign Documents On Developing Cooperation In Oil &amp;amp; Gas
   68) Pyongyang Ready To Resume 6-Party Talks
   Report by Kim Young-jin, staff reporter
   69) Iranian Commander Warns Russia Against Western Propaganda
   70) Russian politicians highly sceptical about new opposition party
   71) Turnout At Polls To Japan Upper Chamber Higher Than 3 Years Ago
   72) Official Says DPRK Apology, Denuclearization Pledge Key to Nuclear
   Talks
   Updated version: upgrading precedence, revising headline and adding
   referent items; Yonhap headline: "N.K. Apology, Denuclearization Pledge
   Key to Nuclear Talks: Official"
   73) Russian Carrier Puts Smoothly Into Orbit US Telecom Satellite
   74) Six Blasts Of TV &amp;amp; Radio Stations Committed In Kabardino-Balkaria
   75) Two Policemen Injured in Blast in Makhachkala
   76) N.K. Apology, Denuclearization Pledge Key to Nuclear Talks: Official
   77) Two Manned Submersibles to Be Supplied to Russian Navy Before End of
   2010
   78) North Korea For Developing Cooperation With UN Population Fund
   79) New Baltic Sea navigation rules prompted by Arctic Sea hijack -
   Russian official
   80) Russian Mailmen Mark Their Professional Holiday
   81) Blast derails freight train in Russia's Dagestan

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   1) Back to Top
   Obama's Afghanistan Strategy Not Working, Review Needed
   Editorial: "The Crisis of Obama's Plan for Afghanistan" - Nezavisimaya
   Gazeta Online
   Sunday July 11, 2010 20:31:24 GMT
   Formally the change of American commanders made in Afghanistan was caused
   by a case of insubordination. It is indicative, however, that General
   McChrystal was allowed to keep the rank of four-star general, that is to
   say full general, even though he should have lost one star because he is
   two years short of completing the full period for going on pension. It
   appears that the White House does not want to provide a pretext to
   politicize the conflict in conditions where there is a raging polemic
   about the situation in Afghanistan and with the approaching mid-term
   elections.

   McChrystal deliberately provoked his own dismissal. First he demanded
   major reinforcements -- up to 60,000 soldiers -- and grudgingly agreed to
   Obama's decision to reduce this figure by one-half. The fact that
   McChrystal decided to withdraw all the same indicates that the general
   does not consider the mission put before him feasible. In the first place,
   despite the addition of troops -- there were almost 130,000 troops under
   the general's command, including a 100,000-strong American contingent --
   the military situati on is not improving. The past June set a record for
   number of coalition troops lost -- 102. Only one major operation was
   conducted, in Helmand Province. The announced offensive in Kandahar
   Province simply has not begun; instead a series of minor actions is being
   conducted.

   For coalition forces who are used to relying first of all on superior
   firepower, the restrictions on air strikes introduced to reduce the number
   of civilian casualties created a serious problem. Commanding officers
   sometimes decline to ask for air support because they are required to
   guarantee no mistakes.

   The second aspect of the strategy -- building the Afghan Army -- is
   limping too. A recent check of their combat readiness showed that Afghan
   units and subunits are still not capable of fighting independently.

   Nor are there improvements in the third component -- straightening out the
   work of the Afghan organs of government and eliminating corruption. This
   prevents them from coun ting on popular support for the government and
   coalition troops. But without this it is impossible to be successful in
   the war. This was acknowledged by General David Petreus, who replaced
   McCrystal and is already in Kabul.

   All this convinces one that the plan for waging the war that the White
   House approved (the "Obama strategy") is not working. At the same time,
   its most highly disputed element, including in the assessment that is
   widespread in American political circles, is the central point of the plan
   -- the start of the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, which
   is scheduled for next summer.

   In the opinion of Senator John McCain, Obama's rival in the 2008
   presidential election who is the Republican Party's leading expert on
   military issues, the Taliban could simply take cover and wait until the
   coalition troops are gone. It is surprising that they have not done this
   -- the Taliban has become more active.

   There is no doubt t hat the White House and the new commander will run up
   against the need to review their strategy in Afghanistan in almost all its
   aspects. This means looking for ways to restructure the regime in Kabul
   and step up military efforts and even to put off the withdrawal of troops
   to a later time or restrict this withdrawal to purely symbolic actions.
   The occasions for such a review will be provided by the parliamentary
   elections scheduled for September and the general evaluation of the
   situation in Afghanistan that will be put together by year's end.

   It is not ruled out, of course, that the presently unproductive search for
   a victory formula in Afghanistan will convince Washington of the need to
   come to an agreement with the current Taliban leadership. Such a decision
   could lead to the creation of a regime that largely preserves the features
   of the former Taliban rule -- an extremist regime leading to making this
   country the main center of opium and heroin production in the world. Such
   a regime will be dangerous to its neighbors, to Russia, and to the whole
   world.

   (Description of Source: Moscow Nezavisimaya Gazeta Online in Russian --
   Website of daily Moscow newspaper featuring varied independent political
   viewpoints and criticism of the government; owned and edited by
   businessman Remchukov; URL: http://www.ng.ru/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   2) Back to Top
   Zarubezhneft To Participate In Developing Gas In SVietnam Shelf -
   ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 13:26:22 GMT
   intervention)

   MOSCOW, July 11 (Itar-Tass) - The Zarubezhneft Company will pa rticipate
   in developing new blocks on the shelf of South Vietnam where large
   deposits of gas condensate are expected.An agreement on this work was
   signed on Sunday in the presence of the general secretary of the Central
   Committee of the Vietnamese Communist Party Nong Duc Manh."One of three
   signed documents is this agreement of intent to join development of new
   blocks 05-2 and 05-3 where large deposits of gas condensate are expected,"
   first deputy director general of the Zarubezhneft Viktor Gorshenev told
   reporters. According to the deputy director, the sides "will get down to
   signing documents by the year-end, which will fix participation of
   Zarubezhneft in these projects".The company deputy head underlined that
   participation in developing the new blocks will be much cheaper for
   Zarubezhneft, since they border blocks 04-1 and 04-3 where the
   Vietsovpetro venture operates, and Zarubezhneft is a co-founder of this
   venture.Reserves of gas and gas condensate have not been estimated yet at
   blocks 05-2 and 05-3, Gorshenev specified, but inferred reserves total
   over 200 million tonnes of conventional fuel. Earlier, the British BP
   Company had worked at this area. However, the company and its partners
   left the South Vietnamese shelf late in 2009.Now, the Russian company
   along with Vietnamese partners will work there. "We suggest Vietsovpetro
   as an operator rather than another company, but this question will be
   initially discussed by Vietnamese partners," Gorshenev continued.Another
   document, signed on Sunday in the presence of the high guest, deals with
   the operation of the Rusvietpetro joint venture (this venture was set up
   in July 2008 to recover oil and gas in the Nenets Autonomous Area). This
   document records "an important question - a change in part of the
   Charter", expanding rights and powers of directors-general of Rusvietpetro
   and Vietsovpetro.According to the new charter, the heads of the companies
   may in dependently take decisions on financing - up to 30 million US
   dollars. Besides the document includes some changes in the structure of
   the Rusvietpetro joint venture.Gorshenev noted that the venture has so far
   only two blocks - S-1 and S-2. However, total expected reserves at all
   sections - 96 million tonnes. "But we hope that there will be more - much
   more than 100 million tonnes; this is a very promising project on the
   whole," Gorshenev went on to say.In future, the company's operation will
   expand: "Four promising sections are located next". A pipeline 100
   kilometres long has already been built. It is planned that following the
   commissioning of the first complex, annual production will amount to
   1.0-1.2 million tonnes of oil, then - 2.5-3.0 million tonnes "with the
   exit to the south of the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Area".Apart from
   operation in Vietnam and Russia, the Russian-Vietnamese Vietsovpetro
   venture also works in third countries - Tunisia , Cuba and examines
   possibilities for operation in Algeria and Angola.(Description of Source:
   Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   3) Back to Top
   Greek Weekly Describes New Scene Following Liberalization of Natural Gas
   Market
   Report by Thodhoris Panagoulis: "Liberalization Lights Up the Natural Gas
   Market". - O Kosmos tou Ependhiti
   Sunday July 11, 2010 14:24:55 GMT
   In other words, NATO would open its door to Skopje if, until then, a
   compromise solution was found that had also been approved by a referendum
   held in the FY ROM, since this is a political commitment made by Prime
   Minister Nikola Gruevski. Therefore, if all of the above are accomplished,
   it is expected that American mediator Matthew Nimetz will visit the region
   before July, carrying in his suitcases a proposal that is largely known to
   us . . . . The question arising is whether events will turn out as planned
   or those claiming that Gruevski is an unpredictable factor will be
   vindicated.

   What is beyond any doubt is that there have been frequent contacts
   recently between Greek Prime Minister Yeoryios Papandreou and Gruevski. It
   is equally certain that the Greek prime minister, using his considerable
   public relations skills, would like to allay the widely-spread national
   fear prevailing among the FYROM's public, where 80% of all
   Slav-Macedonians believe that Greece is using the name issue as a tool in
   its purported pursuit to make its neighbors renounce their national
   identity. Three Probable Benefits

   Finally, there is no doubt that as far as Yeoryios Papandreou is concerned
   he would like to solve the problem with the FYROM. Such a development will
   bring him three benefits.

   1) It will free his foreign policy from a hostage situation, which
   frequently raises obstacles to other Greek foreign police pursuits.

   2) It would enable him to develop an open cooperation strategy with all of
   Greece's neighbors, regaining in the process Athens's political leadership
   status in the Balkans.

   3) Because of the crisis the country is currently experiencing, a feeling
   of national satisfaction would spread among the public, showing to them
   that Greece has not lost the ability to solve its problems. Moreover, it
   would also send the message to the international community that Greece is
   a reliable, dynamic, and resourceful interlocutor. Above everything else,
   however, there is a personal and human temptation for Papandreou to show
   that he was the one responsible for solving a 20-year-ol d problem.

   One month ago a report published in the I Kathimerini reported that the
   proposal for the name of Republika Makedonija (Vardarska) is currently on
   the negotiating table. This sparked a flurry of clarifications from
   Athens, with embarrassed Greek foreign ministry sources trying to explain
   that two different versions are under discussion. The first version is for
   the name of "Republika Vardarska Makedonija" - this version is supported
   by us as along as it is used for all purposes (erga omnes). The second
   version is for the name of "Republika Makedonija (Vardarska)," although
   the other side wants this name to be used only for bilateral purposes.

   As far as the name itself is concerned, many sides point out that the new
   version has been well-chosen, since it provides a geographical designation
   for the country and at the same time it suggests that it is part of an
   overall total. Nonetheless, Athens would like to see the inclusion of the
   word "Vardarska," since this serves to provide a geographical designation
   and will also be easier to retain in the daily use of the country's name
   rather than been overlooked as is customary with words in brackets.

   On the other hand, the FYROM argues that the use of brackets does not
   require an amendment to its Constitution, while such a requirement is
   obligatory should a geographical designation be added. This is the reason
   why Papandreou is pressing for the remaining time to be utilized in order
   that the available options should not expire. However, Gruevski appears to
   be playing for time, probably because he believes that this will gain him
   more negotiating advantages. Athens is believed to have proposed a
   constitutional amendment whose implementation will be suspended. According
   to this proposal, the constitutional amendment will provide that the
   country's official name will be changed to "Republika Vardarska
   Makedonija" only when the F YROM joins either NATO or the European Union.

   Many influential figures, both local and foreign, accuse Gruevski of
   having a low credibility rating, believing that the FYROM prime minister
   will manage the referendum with the same manner that (then Cypriot
   President) Tassos Papadhopoulos managed the Annan Plan, by scripting for
   himself the "heroic" future of a small town leader. Consequently, beyond
   the risk entailed in all referenda, there is a real danger that a matching
   "ambient atmosphere" will be fashioned, corresponding to the 20-meter-high
   statute of Alexander the Great erected in Skopje and Prilep and the
   unbridled populism of the FYROM's leaders. Opinion Poll

   Furthermore, analysts believe it certain that the Albanian community
   living in the FYROM will give a positive vote. The Albanian DUI
   (Democratic Union for Integration) party has already threatened that it
   will lave the government coalition unless a specific plan aimed at a sol
   ution is put forward by the summer. On the other hand, the attitude of the
   Slav-Macedonian majority is uncertain. A recent opinion poll has indicated
   that Gruevski's nationalistic populism has won him the support of 61% of
   all Slav-Macedonians but only 13% of Albanians. For any agreement to pass
   the test of a referendum it must win the acceptance of between 30% and 35%
   of Albanians and 20% to 25% of Slav-Macedonians. Consequently, the problem
   is a complicated one and concerns not only the search for a mutually
   acceptable name version but also the procedure for its implementation. It
   is understood that this is being handled, in addition to the two prime
   ministers, by the following: US Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg
   plus two of the Greek prime minister's closest aides, Alex Rondos and
   Kharis Pampoukis. From the FYROM's side the person involved is Gruevski
   adviser Risto Nikovski.

   If the Greeks, because they know Papandreou, believe deep down in their he
   arts that the problem could be solved soon, in the case of our neighbors,
   because they know Gruevski, they believe that the problem will not be
   solved.

   (Description of Source: Athens O Kosmos tou Ependhiti in Greek --
   Independent, political and economic weekly)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   4) Back to Top
   FYI -- Iran To Reply to Vienna Group's Request for Nuclear Fuel Swap Talks
   - Iranian Students News Agency
   Sunday July 11, 2010 20:26:22 GMT
   reported that Foreign minister Manuchehr Mottaki has said that Iran is
   preparing replies to the letters it received from France, the United Stat
   es, and Russia prior to the passing of a recent resolution against Iran.

   According to ISNA, Mottaki made the above comment on the sidelines of a
   cabinet meeting on 11 July.Mottaki said that the Vienna group has asked
   Iran to hold talks and added: "Their request for (holding fuel swap) talks
   is under investigation. We think that for talks with the Vienna group, in
   other words (for talks within) the framework of Tehran's (nuclear) deal,
   it is better to have countries like Brazil and Turkey present in the new
   round of talks and this has been agreed by parties involved. We are
   investigating a framework for the agenda (to be discussed in) talks."The
   Vienna group consists of France, the United States, Russia, and the
   International Atomic Energy Organization.Further as available.(Description
   of Source: Tehran Iranian Students News Agency in Persian -- conservative
   news agency that now generally supports government policy; it had
   previously provided politically mode rate reporting; linked to University
   Jihad, a state-backed student organization; www.isna.ir)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   5) Back to Top
   Chernobyl Children Denied British Visas - Newspaper - ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 13:47:33 GMT
   intervention)

   LONDON, July 11 (Itar-Tass) -- Immigration officials have denied charity
   holidays in the United Kingdom to child victims of the Chernobyl nuclear
   disaster. The children signed up for a month-long rehabilitation program,
   but the UK Border Agency turned down numerous visa applications a day
   before they were due to arrive in the UK, The Inde pendent newspaper
   said.British charity organizations have helped thousands of children from
   Chernobyl-stricken areas of Ukraine and Belarus since 1986, the year when
   the disaster occurred. Now the charities say their work is practically
   impossible because many visa applications are rejected at the last
   minute."Last month only seven of 17 children due to holiday on the Isle of
   Wight actually made it on trips organized by Chernobyl Children's Life
   Line (CCLL), a charity which has brought over 46,000 children from the
   radioactive zone since 1991. The other 10 were told the night before
   departure that their holiday was cancelled. Another UK charity, Medicine
   and Chernobyl, has also had at least eight visas rejected this year," the
   newspaper said."Children in parts of Belarus and the Ukraine continue to
   be at greater risk of terminal illnesses because of the contaminated
   environment they are exposed to. A month in Britain, where they can eat
   cleaner food, breathe c leaner air and build up strength, can greatly
   improve life expectancy," the newspaper said."Linda Walker MBE, executive
   director of the Chernobyl Children's Project, which brings young cancer
   survivors to the UK, has experienced similar interrogation from the border
   agency. "In the last 12 years we have never had a problem. They have all
   gone home feeling healthier and more positive about life. I am at a loss
   to understand why the border agency is now demanding they provide
   documentation to "prove" that they have a reason to go home after their
   stay. If they can't convince UKBA, they may be denied the chance of a
   holiday which means so much to them"," the newspaper said.(Description of
   Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   6) Back to Top
   Russian pundits comment on TV attack on Belarusian leader - Ekho Moskvy
   Online
   Sunday July 11, 2010 10:23:20 GMT
   Text of report by Russian radio Ekho Moskvy website on 9 July(Presenter
   Kara-Murza) The broadcast of incriminating films about the Belarusian
   leader on Russian TV channels has seriously soured relations between
   Moscow and Minsk.Just before the agreement on the Customs Union, the
   signing of which the Belarusian president tried to avoid for a long time,
   came into force, (one of Russia's three main channels, owned by the
   state-controlled Russian gas giant Gazprom) NTV aired the film "Krestnyy
   Batka" ("Godfather Old Man", referring to Lukashenka's nickname in
   Belarus), whose authors practically accuse d Lukashenka of organizing the
   murders of his political opponents. For instance, the NTV film spoke about
   the mysterious death of deputy speaker of the Supreme Soviet of Belarus
   Henadz Karpenka, disappearances and killings of former Interior Minister
   Yuryy Zakharanka, deputy speaker of the Supreme Soviet and former head of
   the Central Electoral Commission Viktar Hanchar, journalist Dmitry
   Zavadsky, and businessman and public figure Anatol Krasowski. The
   journalists included archive interviews with the oppositionists, who later
   disappeared, and their families in the film, and laid blame on the
   country's authorities for all this. Economist Sergey Aleksashenko points
   out to the consistency of the Kremlin's tactics.(Aleksashenko) That is
   exactly the same policy which was pursued in Ukraine and exactly the same
   policy which has been declared against Georgia. While in the USA,
   President Medvedev said that there would be no improvement in relations
   with this president (President Mi kheil Saakashvili of Georgia), therefore
   you should elect another president and we work with him. Here is the same.
   Until Lukashenka is in power, there will be no good relations with
   Belarus. We would like to, but, you know, he gets in the way. Therefore I
   think that such an open attack by the Russian authorities was intended to
   show that in the upcoming presidential election in Belarus we will play
   against you, Alyaksandr Ryhoravich.(Kara-Murza) There have been many
   questions not even about the content of the film but about the timing of
   its broadcast. The Belarusian delegation regarded it as a deliberate
   attempt to put them under pressure. "The lies about Belarus look very well
   organized. This is all the more strange, given that we have been invited
   as allies and partners in the Customs Union," the Belarusian side said. In
   its view, this step by the Russian authorities is extremely short-sighted,
   because its organizers put their President Dmitriy Medvedev in an a wkward
   position. The Belarusian embassy in Moscow said it hoped that the film did
   not reflect the official position of Russia. Journalist Maksim Shevchenko
   suspects the authors the film of subversive intentions.(Shevchenko) I do
   not understand the purpose of this film, to be honest. It seems to me
   that, against the background of the successful conclusion of agreements of
   the Customs Union and ratification of the customs agreement, this is a
   reaction of opponents of the Customs Union and the customs
   agreement.(Kara-Murza) People who saw the film had no doubt that its
   broadcast is linked with the upcoming presidential election in Belarus and
   is a sort of a hint that Russia, which has always supported Lukashenka,
   will do this no more. The authors deliberately collected all known facts
   about repressions in Belarus, linked them together in a video sequence and
   accused Lukashenka almost of all deadly sins, including in his personal
   life. Owner of the Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper Konstantin Remchukov
   explains the film by a downturn in relations between Moscow and
   Minsk.(Remchukov) Lukashenka has made several tough statements addressed
   to the Russian leadership. And the conflict over Russian gas transit
   through Belarus had repercussions in Europe. People started saying again
   that Russia was not a reliable partner for European countries. I think
   that, at this point, an emotional decision was made to show this film,
   especially since the television company belongs to Gazprom. And to show
   Lukashenka that if he wants a fight he will get it. Something always
   sticks - this is the most simple and reliable motto which is used by
   people who recommend tough methods of dealing with their
   opponents.(Kara-Murza) One could conclude from the NTV documentary that
   the Russians, after the 15-year-long rule of the immortal president of
   Belarus, suddenly discovered that obdurate Lukashenka is a dictator with
   sympathies for Hitler. The hypocrisy of Russian spin doctors is obvious to
   dissident Valeriya Novodvorskaya.(Novodvorskaya) In fact, the Lukashenka
   regime exists solely on Russian money. And if Russia wanted this
   dictatorial regime to end, it would have stopped it in a week. If it were
   not for subsidized gas prices or Russian subsidies to this regime, it
   would not have existed. It's a lovers' tiff.(Description of Source: Moscow
   Ekho Moskvy Online in Russian -- Website of influential station known for
   its news coverage and interviews of politicians; now owned by Gazprom but
   largely retains its independence; URL: http://www.echo.msk.ru)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   7) Back to Top
   (News Focus) N. Korea's Overtures Put S. Korea in Dilemma Over N uclear
   Talks - Yonhap
   Monday July 12, 2010 04:42:42 GMT
   (News Focus) S Korea-nuclear talks

   (News Focus) N. Korea's overtures put S. Korea in dilemma over nuclear
   talksBy Chang Jae-soonSEOUL, July 12 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's surprise
   overtures following a mild U.N. rebuke over the sinking of a South Korean
   warship have put Seoul in a dilemma over whether to soften its hard-line
   stance and resume nuclear talks with the communist nation, analysts said
   Monday.A day after the U.N. Security Council adopted a presidential
   statement without directly blaming Pyongyang for the March sinking of the
   warship Ch'o'nan (Cheonan), Pyongyang's foreign ministry said Saturday it
   remains committed to the stalled six-party talks over its nuclear
   programs.The reaction came as a surprise because North Korea, which has
   denied any responsibility for the sinking, threatened to go to war if it
   is condemne d, and the U.N. statement condemned the attack and strongly
   implied Pyongyang's responsibility.Analysts and officials in Seoul said
   that the North is trying to find a way out of the high-pressure situation
   overshadowed by the Ch'o'nan (Cheonan)'s sinking at a time when its
   economic troubles are deepening and leader Kim Jong Il (Kim Cho'ng-il) is
   trying to hand power over to his son.Friday's report by Pyongyang's state
   news agency that an American jailed in the North attempted to kill himself
   is part of the regime's attempt to push the United States into dialogue,
   along with an offer, also made Friday, to hold military talks with the
   U.S.-led United Nations Command, they said."North Korea is putting forward
   an exit strategy in an attempt to escape from the Cheonan-dominated
   situation at an early date and turn the situation into a dialogue phase
   with the U.S.," said professor Kim Yong-hyun at Seoul's Dongguk
   University."That's because if the confrontation phase over the Ch'o'nan
   (Cheonan) case is dragged on, it could put burdens on the regime grappling
   with economic difficulties, succession plans and the issue of leader Kim
   Jong Il (Kim Cho'ng-il)'s health," he said.The North's charm offensive has
   posed a difficult question to South Korea that has been unwilling to
   reopen the six-party nuclear talks unless the ship sinking is resolved.
   Seoul has demanded that Pyongyang apologize for the attack and punish
   those responsible."I think North Korea first took hold of the initiative
   in bringing an end to the Cheonan-overshadowed situation," said Kim
   Young-su, a North Korea expert at Sogang University in Seoul. "Our
   government, which has put the Ch'o'nan (Cheonan) ahead of six-party talks,
   has been placed at a crossroad.But the professor said Seoul "needs some
   justification" in heading toward an exit strategy.On Sunday, a senior
   South Korean official said that the North appears to be "looking for a way
   ou t," but that the "ball is in North Korea's court," stressing that
   Pyongyang should first create an atmosphere for resuming the stalled
   nuclear talks.The on-again-off-again talks, which involve the two Koreas,
   China, Japan, Russia and the U.S., have been stalled since the last
   meeting in late 2008. While staying away from the talks, North Korea
   conducted its second-ever nuclear test last year."North Korea should first
   apologize for the Ch'o'nan (Cheonan) case or acknowledge its
   responsibility and show its willingness to denuclearize to make it
   possible for the six-party talks to resume," the official said."Sincerity
   and trustworthiness are important for resuming the talks," he said. "This
   is a matter of willingness. If it is willing (to apologize), it can do so
   in whatever way."Pyongyang has used its participation in nuclear talks as
   a negotiating card. It has been a standard pattern of North Korean
   behavior to raise tensions with provocations and then return to the
   dialogue table to get the concessions it wants before backtracking on
   agreements and quitting the talks again.South Korea, the U.S. and other
   like-minded partners have been trying to break the pattern, stressing the
   importance of the North showing sincere willingness to give up its nuclear
   programs before agreeing to reopen the nuclear talks.Still, analysts have
   warned that Seoul could be sidelined from North Korea's denuclearization
   process if it remains offish for too long, as China is expected to work
   actively to reopen the stalled six-party talks, and the U.S. could move
   gradually in that direction as well.Right after the U.N. statement on the
   ship sinking was adopted, Beijing's foreign ministry called for resumption
   of the nuclear talks, saying regional powers should "take this opportunity
   to quickly move to the next page of the Ch'o'nan (Cheonan) incident.""The
   answer is obvious. We have to view the situation from the perspective of
   maintaining stability on the Korean Peninsula," Yang Moo-jin, a professor
   at Seoul's University of North Korean Studies, said of how Seoul should
   respond to Pyongyang's charm offensive."We have to seek North Korea's
   denuclearization and discuss ways to reduce tensions through six-party
   talks, including ways to prevent an incident like the Ch'o'nan (Cheonan)
   case from happening again," he said.Yang also voiced concern that South
   Korea could be isolated if it sticks to the hard-line stance while China
   and the U.S. seeks to reopen the nuclear talks."We have to understand the
   grime reality in the international community," he said. "After all, global
   powers will act depending on their own national interests. There are no
   permanent enemies or friends."(Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in
   English -- Semiofficial news agency of the ROK; URL:
   http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   8) Back to Top
   Visit of US Secretary of State to Poland, Ukraine, Transcaucasus Examined
   in Light of 'Reset' With Russia
   Article by Aleksandr Gabuyev, Georgiy Dvali, Tbilisi; Rafael Mustafayev,
   Baku; Ayk Dzhanpopadyan, Yerevan: "Reset Bypassing Russia: Hillary Clinton
   Reminds Ukraine and the Transcaucasus of the United States" - Kommersant
   Online
   Sunday July 11, 2010 22:38:01 GMT
   Hillary Clinton's tour, which came to an end yesterday and encompassed
   visits to Ukraine, Poland, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia, was to a
   great degree mindful of last year's trip to the region of US Vice
   President Joe Biden. The vice president visited Ukraine and Georgia
   immediately after President Barack Obama's triumphant visit to Moscow,
   letting it be known that Washington did not intend to abandon its allies
   for the sake of the "reset" in relations with Russia. However, United
   States standing in this region has noticeably deteriorated over the past
   year. We note that having acceded to power in Ukraine, President Viktor
   Yanukovich has veered sharply in Russia's direction and reached agreement
   on extending the presence of the Black Sea Fleet in Crimea until 2042. Not
   one high-ranking US political figure has visited the country since
   Yanukovich's election victory. Poland has not forgotten that Barack
   Obama's administration rejected the idea of stationing missile defense
   facilities in the country. Mrs. Clinton has not once visited any of the
   three Transcaucasus countries as secretary of state. More telling still is
   the fact that for a year now, there has been no US ambassador in
   Azerbaijan -- Washington has been simply unable to settle on a candidacy.
   This is very offensive to Baku.

   During the course of her short tour, following Dmitriy Medvedev's visit to
   the United States, Hillary Clinton was unable, of course, to resolve all
   the problems that have accumulated. However, as her deputy for Europe and
   Eurasia, Philip Gordon, explained prior to the tour, the main goal of the
   secretary's trip was to demonstrate that the United States does not intend
   to abandon its activity in the region for the sake of improved relations
   with Moscow. Mrs. Clinton's stop in Kiev confirmed the correctness of his
   words. She discussed with Viktor Yanukovich the strengthening of relations
   between Kiev and the West and even confirmed the readiness of NATO to
   accept Ukraine into its ranks (see yesterday's issue of Kommersant). Her
   visit achieved other important results as well. We note that on the day
   the secretary of state flew to Kiev, the IMF (International Mo netary
   Fund) mission (in which the United States has a deciding say) declared its
   readiness to allocate $14.9 billion to the country. While Ukrainian
   Foreign Affairs Minister Konstantin Grishchenko stated that questions
   involving the "diversification of sources of nuclear fuel deliveries" for
   Ukrainian nuclear power plants were discussed with his guest. In June Kiev
   signed a contract with TVEL, a Russian open joint-stock company, which
   would essentially make the Russians monopolists in the market. Now it is
   possible that the American company Westinghouse, which used to deliver
   fuel to the Yuzhno-Ukrainskaya (Southern-Ukrainian) Nuclear Power Plant,
   will obtain its piece of the pie.

   Hillary Clinton was able to spend Sunday in Azerbaijan and Armenia. At
   meetings with Presidents Ilkham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan, as well as with
   her counterparts Elmar Mamedyarov and Edvard Nalbandyan, the US secretary
   of state chose her words carefully in expressing the need to settle the
   Karabakh conflict as quickly as possible on the basis of the Madrid
   principles coordinated by the Minsk Group of OSCE (Organization for
   Security and Cooperation in Europe) (Russian Federation, United States,
   and France). Taking into account the long-term, deep-seated nature of the
   conflict, Mrs. Clinton could hardly have realistically expected to move
   the process out of its impasse. However, she also found discussion topics
   which are more interesting and more important to the United States. We
   note that she once again talked over with Serzh Sargsyan the subject of
   normalization of relations with Turkey and publicly called upon Yerevan
   and Ankara to open their border as soon as possible. Philip Gordon stated
   the day before that in Azerbaijan, one of the key subject areas was
   cooperation in the energy sphere. Neither the secretary of state herself
   nor her Azeri colleagues were willing to publicly divulge the details of
   their talks. From all appearances, ho wever, discussion involved the
   future of the Nabucco project, which has recently come to a standstill
   because of disagreements between Baku and Ankara with respect to gas
   transit. Already Ilkham Aliyev has twice postponed a visit to Turkey for
   the purpose of signing documents on gas shipments, the most recent such
   instance being one month ago.

   Finally, the last stop on Hillary Clinton's itinerary was Georgia. Several
   times Mrs. Clinton referred to Abkhazia and South Ossetia as
   "Russian-occupied" regions of Georgia, which elicited warm gratitude on
   the part of President Mikahil Saakashvili. After her talks with the
   president, Mrs. Clinton met with representatives of the parties of
   Christian Democrats and Free Democrats. The former is represented in the
   parliament. The leader of the latter -- Irakliy Alasaniya -- achieved a
   certain degree of success in the May election of the Tbilisi mayor,
   amassing about 20 percent of the vote. Mr. Alasaniya is consider ed a
   promising political figure in the United States in light of the
   approaching presidential election of 2013 (he served for a long time as
   permanent representative of Georgia to the United Nations and has
   excellent connections in the country).

   Incidentally, Aleksiy Petriashvili, a very close comrade-in-arms of
   Irakliy Alasaniya who took part in the meeting with Hillary Clinton,
   informed Kommersant that there was in fact discussion with the secretary
   concerning the coming election, in particular -- on the undesirability of
   amending the Georgian Constitution and shifting to a parliamentary form of
   government in order to preserve the authority of Mikahil Saakashvili in
   the position of prime minister.

   (Description of Source: Moscow Kommersant Online in Russian -- Website of
   informative daily business newspaper owned by pro-Kremlin and
   Gazprom-linked businessman Alisher Usmanov, although it still criticizes
   the government; URL: http://kommersant.ru/)

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   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   9) Back to Top
   Japan Plotted to Take Korean Emperor Gojong to Its Territory: Report -
   Yonhap
   Monday July 12, 2010 02:24:38 GMT
   Emperor Gojong-Japan

   Japan plotted to take Korean Emperor Gojong to its territory: reportSEOUL,
   July 12 (Yonhap) -- Japan attempted to take Emperor Gojong of Korea's
   waning Joseon Dynasty to its territory during the 1904-1905 Russo-Japanese
   war, a report said Monday, citing diplomatic documents.The Japanese viewed
   Emperor Gojong as a cumbersome obstacle to annexing Korea and planned to
   take him to Nagasaki, southern Japan, the Korea Herald sai d, citing a
   26-page report titled "Japanese intention to take the Korean Emperor to
   Mokko."The document was discovered at the Russian Empire's foreign
   political archives in Moscow by Karoly Fendler, lecturer of Korean history
   at Budapest University ELTE, Hungary, and foreign researcher for overseas
   historical materials at National Institute of Korean History, the news
   report said.According to the report, the Russians opposed the Japanese
   plan, while the British agreed with dethroning the emperor and the
   annexation plan.U.S. President Theodore Roosevelt postponed his decision
   on the establishment of a protectorate over Korea, but criticized the plan
   to remove the Korean emperor, the report said.The Russian government first
   received information about the alleged Japanese plan from its legation in
   Belgrade, Serbia, on April 22, 1905. The first piece of information from
   Belgrade was sent to Czarskoe Selo, the residence of Russian czars near
   St. Petersburg, without dela y, on April 26. Czar Nicholas II wrote in a
   letter, "This Japanese activity must be prevented somehow.""The fact that
   Nicholas II was upset is understandable, not only because the
   Russo-Japanese War was still going on, but also because of the cruelties
   of the Japanese committed in Korea; the killing of Queen Min in 1895,
   trudging on international agreements and not considering Korea as a
   neutral independent state at that time," Fendler was quoted as saying in
   an e-mail interview with the Korea Herald.Germany, Britain and the U.S.
   were paying close attention to Japan's attempt to take Gojong, the report
   said, citing other diplomatic dispatches between the German mission in
   Korea and the German foreign ministry discovered in 2008 by a Korean
   professor.A secret telegram sent by a German envoy in Seoul, identified as
   Saldern, to the foreign ministry in Germany on Feb. 14, 1905 reads, "The
   Japanese are trying to transfer Gojong to Japan. Gojong refused, w orried
   that he would not be able to come back."Another telegram by Saldern, sent
   on June 2, 1905, suggests Japan may have withdrawn its plan because of
   U.S. opposition."Since a few weeks ago, Japan has been sounding Britain
   out about establishing a protectorate over Korea and dethroning Gojong to
   take him to Japan. Britain agreed on it. Japan inquired the U.S. about
   establishing a protectorate over but criticized the plan to depose Gojong
   and take him to Japan," the telegram reads, according to the news
   report.Emperor Gojong, the 26th king of the Joseon Dynasty, faced constant
   threats of invasion and political interference from neighboring powers
   throughout his reign from 1863-1907. Japan forced him to yield the throne
   to his son, Sunjong, three years before annexing Korea in
   1910.(Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   10) Back to Top
   Sakhalin Energy Consigns 100Th Tanker With Oil - ITAR-TASS
   Monday July 12, 2010 02:12:30 GMT
   intervention)

   VLADIVOSTOK, July 12 (Itar-Tass) - Sakhalin Energy Company that develops
   offshore oil deposits on the continental shelf of Russia's Far Eastern
   island of Sakhalin has consigned the 100th tanker with crude oil for the
   international market.The Gubernator Farkhutdinov tanker left the port of
   Prigorodnoye and is hauling the consignment to the Republic of Korea.Since
   the start of round-the-year shipments in December 2008, Sakhalin Energy
   has cosigned more than 9 million tons of the Vityaz blen d crude to Japan,
   the Republic of Korea, China, Thailand, Taiwan, the Philippines, the U.S.,
   and New Zealand.The Vityaz blend has received recognition as a fair prime
   material for the production of gasoline, kerosene, diesel fuel, and
   various petrochemical products.It is noteworthy that the very first crude
   was consigned from the Prigorodnoye wharfs by the same tanker Gubernator
   Farkhutdinov, which belongs to the Far-Eastern Shipping Line and has been
   leased to the oil company on provisions of long-term lease.(Description of
   Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   11) Back to Top
   Construction Of Major Polyvinyl Chl oride Factory To Begin In Volga Area -
   ITAR-TASS
   Monday July 12, 2010 04:48:47 GMT
   intervention)

   NIZHNY NOVGOROD, July 12 (Itar-Tass) - Construction of a Russian-Belgian
   joint-venture enterprise for the manufacturing of polyvinychloride begins
   in the Nizhny Novgorod region Monday.It is expected that Belgian Prime
   Minister Yves Leterme will attend the ceremony where the foundation stone
   of the factory is to be laid.The construction works will be carried out by
   the company RusVinyl that is run on parity grounds by the Russian company
   Sibur Holding and the corporation Solvive where the Gelgian company Solvay
   has 75%, while the German corporation BASF has 25%."Investment in the
   Nizhny Novgorod project will stand at around 40 billion rubles," the
   regional minister for investment policies, Dmitry Svatkovsky told
   reporters.He indicated that the factory will have a big enough o utput
   capacity for producing 330,000 tons of polyvinyl chloride and 235,000 tons
   of sodium hydrate.The factory is expected to come on stream in 2013.The
   project will create 435 new jobs with an average wage of 70,000 rubles a
   month.The factory is supposed to pay about a billion rubles in taxes to
   the consolidated budget of the Nizhny Novgorod region while the investment
   agreement is in effect and 351 million rubles after the term of
   effectuation expires.The European community endorsed the project May 19,
   2008. On that day, the European Commission issued endorsement to the
   setting up of a joint venture by Sibur and Solvay.The JV then received the
   status of a preferential regional project enjoying privileged taxation
   patterns. The federal government included it in the strategy of chemical
   and petrochemical industries development through to 2015.Sibur, which
   stands for the Siberian-Urals company, is Russia's largest petrochemical
   corporation. Its controlling stake belongs to th e natural gas giant
   Gazprom.Polyvinyl chloride is one of the least expensive large-capacity
   polymeric substances. It is broadly used in the automobile industry, as
   well as in the manufacturing of plastic packings.It has a simple enough
   technology of utilization(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in
   English -- Main government information agency)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   12) Back to Top
   Kuwaiti Leadership Cables Russian President on Nat''l Day
   "Kuwaiti Leadership Cables Russian President on Nat''l Day" -- KUNA
   Headline - KUNA Online
   Saturday June 12, 2010 07:31:18 GMT
   ( KUWAIT NEWS AGENCY) - KUWAIT, June 12 (KUNA) -- His Highness the Amir of
   the State of Kuwait Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sent a cable
   of congratulations on Saturday to the Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on
   his country's national day.Their Highnesses the Crown Prince Sheikh Nawaf
   Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah and the Prime Minister Sheikh Nasser
   Al-Mohammad Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah sent similar cables to the leader on this
   occasion.(Description of Source: Kuwait KUNA Online in English -- Official
   news agency of the Kuwaiti Government; URL: http://www.kuna.net.kw)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   13) Back to Top
   Russia's Amur Tigers Barely Surviving Heat At Tehran Zoo - ITAR-TAS S
   Sunday July 11, 2010 14:34:59 GMT
   intervention)

   TEHRAN, July 11 (Itar-Tass) -- The Amur tigers, Russia's gift to Iran, are
   barely surviving the heat in Tehran. The Tehran Zoo personnel are doing
   their best to make life comfortable for the tigers, the news agency Mehr
   said on Sunday.The tigers, a male and a female, were brought to Tehran by
   a special flight on April 23. Iran presented Russia with two Southwest
   Asian leopard females in exchange.It is planned to accommodate the Amur
   tigers in the Miankaleh nature reserve in northern Iran, by the Caspian
   Sea coast. Mehr said that the nature reserve was not ready to receive the
   tigers.Meanwhile, air temperatures in Tehran have been keeping at 40
   degrees Centigrade for the past two weeks. Weathermen said that was the
   hottest summer in Iran in the past 60 years.The male's condition is all
   right, but the female has lost appetite and is experiencing a severe
   stress, experts said. The tigers have been moved from cages to an open-air
   area with a pool of 18 square meters.Iranian environmentalists wish to
   restore the tiger population in the Caspian zone. Tigers who had populated
   that territory went extinct because of poachers.(Description of Source:
   Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   14) Back to Top
   US Wants Better Relations With Russia, Won't Stop Support To Georgia -
   Diplomat - ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 14:51:06 GMT
   intervention)

   TBILISI, July 11 (Ita r-Tass) -- The United States wishes to improve
   relations with Russia but it will not swerve from principles and will not
   stop supporting Georgia, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European
   and Eurasian Affairs Philip Gordon said in an interview broadcasted by the
   Tbilisi Rustavi 2 channel on Saturday.The reset of U.S.-Russia relations
   and the U.S. support to Georgia are not mutually exclusive, the diplomat
   said. He affirmed progress in U.S.-Russia interaction in the
   non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, Afghanistan, Iran and North Korea,
   and economics.The United States does not want to miss a chance to improve
   relations in Russia, but everyone must know that the U.S. will not abandon
   its principles or stop supporting Georgia, Gordon said.The United States
   supports territorial integrity of Georgia within internationally
   recognized borders and democratic development of that country, he said.The
   United States is interested in Russia's entry into the World Trade
   Organization (WTO), Gordon said.The Russian membership in the WTO is
   important for U.S. economy, world trade and Russia, he noted.It is
   necessary for Russia to answer remaining economic questions of Georgia, a
   WTO member, such as the possibility to lift the embargo on imports of
   Georgian wine, mineral water and other products, Gordon said.The WTO was
   established on January 1, 1995, as the successor to the General Agreement
   on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) that had been operating since 1947. This is
   the only international body supervising world trade. The WTO has the
   status of a UN specialized agency. It is headquartered in Geneva.The WTO
   has 153 members at present. Negotiations on the admission of a new member
   are held within the working group, which unites countries that have
   unsettled trade problems with the candidate.As a rule, negotiations focus
   on four areas: accessibility to the goods market, agriculture,
   accessibility to the market of services, and systemic matters. The
   candidate must bring its national laws in correspondence with the WTO
   rules. Two-thirds of votes of WTO members are sufficient for the admission
   of a new member. Regularly, the accession process takes a decade.Russia
   applied for membership in the WTO in December 1994. The number of its
   negotiating partners kept growing through the years, and the latest
   working group had 58 members - the largest working group ever in the
   entire history of the WTO. Six-year negotiations with the United States
   were the most difficult for Russia (the bilateral protocol was signed on
   November 19, 2006). The negotiations with the European Union also lasted
   for six years (the protocol was signed on May 21, 2004). Yet there are
   still some unresolved problems - export duties on timber with the EU and
   the activity of state-owned enterprises with the U.S.Russia expressed
   dissatisfaction with the dragging out admission process many times."Russia
   is ready to enter into the WTO on non-discriminative terms. We have done
   our best to achieve that," President Dmitry Medvedev said.The United
   States and Russia had agreed to complete the process by the end of
   September, U.S. Ambassador in Moscow John Beyrle said in an interview
   published by the July 2 issue of the newspaper Izvestia.The Jackson-Vanik
   amendment will automatically cease to exist with the Russian admission to
   the WTO, the ambassador said. In fact, the amendment is already invalid
   and has no effect on bilateral trade. However, it has a very large
   psychological significance, he said.Beyrle noted that the U.S. and Russian
   leaders had agreed to concentrate on economic relations, which fell short
   the potential. Bilateral trade stood at $24 billion in 2009, and $36
   billion before the crisis. That is nothing for such large countries as the
   United States and Russia, he said.The ambassador commented on results
   achieved over the past year. Large U.S. investors - Alcoa, Kimberly Clark,
   John Deere and Pepsi Cola - opened plants in Ru ssia, and investments
   topped $2 billion in the Moscow region alone. Boeing and Rostekhnologii
   agreed on the acquisition of 50 new Boeing 737 jets. Cisco Systems will
   invest over one billion dollars in innovative projects in Russia,
   including Skolkovo.Strong and prosperous Russia is advantageous for the
   United States, which needs predictable and reliable partners in the
   deterrence of threats of the 21st century, the ambassador
   said.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main
   government information agency)

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   15) Back to Top
   Changing Nature, Pace of System of International Relations Eyed
   Article by Fedor Lukyanov, under the rubric &amp;quo t;Authors": "The World Is
   Changing Its Skin" - Gazeta.ru
   Sunday July 11, 2010 21:14:36 GMT
   The most striking example is Turkey.

   In literally the last few months, the country has made a visible turn not
   even in its foreign policy but in its self-identification -- from a loyal
   part of the "collective West" to a regional Muslim power with independent
   ambitions.

   Naturally, the change did not occur spontaneously, and things were moving
   toward it throughout the entire first decade of the 2000s, but the last
   few months were crucial ones. In the winter the government announced the
   exposure of a large-scale conspiracy of military people who supposedly
   were planning a coup d'etat, and at the very start of the summer, there
   was the noisy break with Israel, which marked Ankara's reorientation.

   These two events are related, if not directly, at least ind irectly. The
   internal changes in Turkish society (the gradual retreat from the old
   secular ideology of Kemalism, whose guarantor was the military, and
   accordingly, the weakening of their influence) coincided with the
   transformation of the external landscape. In the absence of the unifying
   Soviet threat, it turned out that there are more ideological and
   geopolitical differences between Turkey and its Western allies than was
   believed earlier. The prospect of membership in the European Union, which
   the Turkish elite -- both secular and moderately Islamic -- very much
   wanted, served as the anchor that in theory was supposed to keep Ankara in
   the Western orbit. But at some point it became clear that unified Europe
   is not ready to accept Turkey, and the continued process of negotiations
   threatens to become an endless -- and very humiliating for Ankara --
   search for reasons why its joining is impossible.

   The development of events in the European Union is yet another impo rtant
   process of the past season. On 1 December the long-suffering Lisbon Treaty
   that was supposed to refine the system of European institutions and
   convert the European Union into a single and effective international
   player took effect. The result was all but the opposite. The major
   countries immediately took the levers of control into their hands and made
   it unambiguously clear that the federalization games that the entire
   constitutional process was associated with were over. The Europe of states
   conquered supra-national Europe.

   Almost immediately all the member countries that have their own ambitions
   (and that means not only Germany, France, or Italy but also, for example,
   Poland or Romania) began to seek their own ways to support their interests
   in contacts with important foreign partners.

   The situation only got worse in the spring, when the sluggish polemics
   over Greece moved to the acute phase. Quite quickly it became clear that
   Athens' slipshod acti ons were only a partial manifestation of the
   conceptual crisis of the European integration model squeezed between the
   currency union and the lack of a uniform economic policy. The Greek fire,
   doused with financial infusions, did not resolve the fundamental problem
   but aggravated relations among the different countries and groups of
   countries. The main result was to push to the foreground Germany, which
   was required to assume responsibility for the economic survival of the
   Union but at the same time not "stick out" too much so as not to frighten
   its neighbors and partners. Germany does no t want leadership, which it
   was effectively weaned away from during the postwar period, but inside
   German society irritation is growing at the fact that the taxpaying
   burgers are supposed to bear the debt burden of the "European home" on
   their shoulders. Angela Merkel is losing points inside the country, and
   specifically that will probably make the federal government become more
   active in the European arena in order to avoid foreign pressure that would
   only make the internal dissatisfaction worse. And Berlin's activization
   automatically makes the rest -- from Warsaw and Prague in the east to
   Paris and London in the west -- "tense."

   Symptoms that a new political consciousness is beginning to arise in
   Germany were manifested throughout the entire season. Beginning with
   Chancellor Merkel's speech on the anniversary of the start of World War II
   in Gdansk, when the tragedy of the Germans evicted from Eastern Europe in
   1945-1946 was mentioned at a high official level for the first time
   (earlier this was considered revanchism and was taboo), and ending with
   the interview that cost President Horst Koehler his job. In it he admitted
   for the first time that Germany might have its own military-strategic
   interests, which also had not occurred since the middle of the last
   century.

   The political transformation of Germany pro mises to exercise the greatest
   influence on European policy in the coming years.

   In Asia the past season brought an obvious increase in the self-confidence
   of China, which began to declare its political interests in tough language
   (such as, for example, happened at the Copenhagen conference on climate
   change), as well as Japan's attempt (failed, it is true) to declare a kind
   of independence from the United States. Yukio Hatoyama's government, which
   came to power last fall after the "political earthquake" (the
   irreplaceable Liberal Democrats lost the election), tried to achieve "more
   equitable" relations with Washington and the formation of an "East Asian
   community." After eight months Hatoyama retired, since the American
   partners clearly explained to him who was who. The tragic incident with
   the sinking of the South Korean corvette, which Pyongyang took
   responsibility for and which proved to be political timely, helped the
   United State s do this. As a result the configuration of forces in East
   Asia did not change, but the overall tension is rising.

   Among the other manifestations of unusual behavior, one may recall the
   United States' uncustomary passivity in post-Soviet space. It reached its
   apogee during the pogroms in Kyrgyzstan, when Washington simply kept
   silent for several days. (Russia's indifferent position also caused
   universal surprise, by the way, but I will talk about that, and about the
   other results of the Russian foreign policy season, next week.) The United
   States clearly changed its attitude toward its closest ally -- Israel: it
   has cooled to almost a record low temperature. That, however, did not
   bring Barack Obama any special dividends in the Arab community -- the
   revolutionary changes in relations between the United States and the
   Islamic world that the president's program speeches were aimed at in 2009
   did not occur. But then together with that same Turkey, Brazil made a cla
   im to leadership positions in settling the problems of the Third World.

   The May initiative of Erdogan and Lula on the Iranian question upset the
   applecart of the permanent members of the UN Security Council, who
   responded to the unexpected peacemakers with unconcealed irritation.

   The events of the autumn of 2009 -- summer of 2010 showed how rapidly the
   world situation has begun to change. The general comments about the
   "failed hegemony" and the ensuing "multipolarity" were replaced by a
   reorientation of the key states of the world and the rethinking of their
   particular strategies. The usual formats are not only no longer able to
   match the changes that are occurring -- they cannot even mask them. Hence,
   they will have to either change or leave the stage.

   (Description of Source: Moscow Gazeta.ru in Russian -- Popular website
   owned by LiveJournal proprietor SUP: often critical of the government;
   URL: http://www.gazeta.ru)

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   16) Back to Top
   Spanish Fans In Moscow Celebrating Spanish Team's Victory In World Cup -
   ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 22:59:08 GMT
   intervention)

   MOSCOW, July 12 (Itar-Tass) - Spanish football fans who turned up in
   Moscow on they night their national team played versus Holland in the 2010
   World Cup final in South Africa say they did not have any doubts for a
   single minute about the forthcoming victory."That's a historic feat,
   that's like a dream," a fan who joined his compatriots watching the game
   in a Moscow bar said.Spanish songs could be heard in Mosco w restaurants
   and on the streets, as the fans of La Furia Roja.Some of the fans were
   tapping and some had tears in their eyes."We're amused by how sincerely
   and unemphaticly the Spanish can express their joy," a female manager at a
   downtown Spanish restaurant said. "Spanish football is also easy-going and
   elegant."Dozens of Spanish tourists and staff-members of the Spanish
   embassy went on a tour of nighttime Moscow after the end of the
   match."We're yet to recognize the feat that our national team has achieved
   over the past two years," one of them said.The Spanish won the European
   Cup two years ago and the World Cup this Sunday - for the first time
   ever.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main
   government information agency)

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   17) Back to Top
   Plenty of Red Meat To Be Available Ahead of Ramadan
   Plenty of Red Meat To Be Available Ahead of Ramadan -- Jordan Times
   Headline - Jordan Times Online
   Monday July 12, 2010 01:20:02 GMT
   12 July 2010

   By Raed Omari AMMAN - Officials on Sunday said there will soon be
   an"abundance" of red meat on the local market to prevent any potential
   rise inprices during the holy month of Ramadan. Minister of Agriculture
   Saeed Masrisaid the ministry has taken several measures to ensure the
   availability of redmeat on the local market, including increasing the
   volume of red meat imports.In order to sustain market stability ahead of
   Ramadan, Masri explained that theministry has allowed traders to import
   red meat from 16 countries includingAustralia, Romania, Syria, Sudan,
   Russia, Cyprus, the UK, the US, Azerbaijan,China and Ethiopia, among
   others. "Within 10 days, there will be an excesssupply of red meat on the
   local market," Masri told The Jordan Times in atelephone interview
   yesterday. In addition, the ministry has stopped the exportof local sheep
   in a bid to ensure the country has an adequate supply of redmeat during
   the holy month, which witnesses an increase in consumption, headded. Wael
   Shqeirat, director general of the government-owned National Companyfor
   Food Security (NCFS), said the import of red meat will offset any
   potentialprice hikes, "be it due to increased transportation costs or
   demand". "If theprices of local fresh meat go up, customers will find
   cheaper alternatives onthe local market, because they have a variety of
   choices," the NCFS directortold The Jordan Times yesterday, adding that in
   order to avoid higher red meatprices, the company will import red meat
   from sever al countries, mainlyRomania. According to Consumer Protection
   Society (CPS) President MohammadObeidat, there is currently a constant
   supply of red meat on the local market,with no foreseeable price hikes in
   the near future. Ahead of the holy month ofRamadan, the Ministry of
   Agriculture, Ministry of Industry and Trade, the NCFSand the CPS are
   working together to keep red meat affordable for the public,Obeidat
   pointed out. Foodstuff Traders Association figures indicate thatJordanians
   consume around 5,000 tonnes of red meat during Ramadan, 20-30 percent
   higher than the average consumption of other months.12 July
   2010(Description of Source: Amman Jordan Times Online in English --
   Website of Jordan Times, only Jordanian English daily known for its
   investigative and analytical coverage of controversial domestic issues;
   sister publication of Al-Ra'y; URL: http://www.jordantimes.com/)

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   18) Back to Top
   Putin Congratulates Workers Of Fishing Industry On Fishermen Day -
   ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 09:12:43 GMT
   intervention)

   MOSCOW, July 11 (Itar-Tass) - Prime Minister Vladimir Putin contacted
   master of the Kalkan fishing boat Mikhail Galakhin on Fishermen Day via
   the satellite communication service and congratulated him as well as in
   his person all workers of the industry on their professional holiday, the
   premier's press secretary Dmitry Peskov told reporters.Galakhin's ship was
   fishing in the Pacific at the time of the phone call. The Kalkan is one of
   fishing vessels whose crew could not sail out for long and experienced
   serious d ifficulties in connection with wage arrears. The boats had been
   built in the 1990s by a Cyprus company on credits from a German
   bank.Later, the company could not meet its obligations under the credit,
   and the creditor's rights were shouldered by Vnesheconombank. Following
   the ban on commercial fishing under foreign flags, imposed by Russia on
   January 1, 2009, the ships and their crews were stranded on land.
   Following a letter to the prime minister, the question was repeatedly
   examined by the cabinet.As a result, on Putin's instructions, the vessels
   started operating under the Russian flag thanks to efforts of the
   Rosrybolovstvo (Russian State Fisheries Agency), the Finance Ministry,
   Rosimushchestvo (Federal Property Management Agency) and
   Vnesheconombank.Now, seven out of 12 vessels are already fishing: they
   received quotas for fishing. Five are still are anchored, and their
   problems are still to be resolved finally.Putin asked Galakhin how things
   are going on. The captain r eplied that they are fishing halibut, and
   things are now are fairly well.At the same time, Galakhin called the
   premier's attention to some problems, connected with the organisation of
   the fishing industry in the country and also raised the question on a
   possibility of improving working conditions for Russian fishermen and the
   fishing industry as a whole, Peskov said.(Description of Source: Moscow
   ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)

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   19) Back to Top
   One Police Killed, Two Wounded In Makhachkala - ITAR-TASS
   Monday July 12, 2010 04:26:31 GMT
   intervention)

   MACHACHKALA, July 12 (Itar-Tass) - One person was killed and another two
   wounded in a shootout in Makhachkala, the press service of Dagestan's
   Interior Ministry told Itar-Tass on Monday.The accident happed near the
   building of the republic's prosecutor's office at 04:15 Moscow time, when
   unidentified criminals in a car opened fire on a police squad that stopped
   a minivan to check.A policeman and a driver of the minivan were wounded.
   Another policeman died of wounds in the hospital.Criminals drove away from
   the scene of the accident.The search for criminals is
   underway.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main
   government information agency)

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   20) Back to Top
   Assistant Prosecutor, Criminal Police Chief Wounded In N Caucasus -
   ITAR-TASS
   Monday July 12, 2010 03:11:00 GMT
   intervention)

   MAKHACHKALA, July 12 (Itar-Tass) - Deputy prosecutor and chief of the
   Criminal Police have survived assassination attempts in the Khasavyurt
   district of the North Caucasian region of Dagestan.The attempts occurred
   late night Sunday, officials at the Dagestani Interior Ministry told
   Itar-Tass.At 22:30, unknown gunmen opened fire on a car where the
   Assistant Prosecutor of the District, Sirazhutdin Murtazaliyev, was riding
   together with his two-year-old son.The Interior Ministry source said
   Murtazaliyev was injured but slightly and managed to drive to the hospital
   on his own, while his young son received severs skull wounds.Five minutes
   before the attack on Murtazaliyev, another group of unknown gunmen opened
   fir e at a car where Lieutenant Colonel Aslambek Alibekov, the chief of
   the district criminal police was riding.The policemen himself was not
   wounded by a female relative who was riding in the same car received a
   tangential wound.The policemen failed to track the criminals down gut it
   instituted criminal cases and started investigations.(Description of
   Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)

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   21) Back to Top
   Siberian Region To Mark Tomato Day - ITAR-TASS
   Monday July 12, 2010 02:49:50 GMT
   intervention)

   KRASNOYARSK, July 12 (I tar-Tass) - Southern districts of the Krasnoyarsk
   territory in Siberia are marking the Minusinsk Tomato day, which was
   instituted by local authorities in the Minusinsk district in 2004 but
   became so popular that it received later the status of a territorial
   holiday.Tomatoes grown in the Minusinsk Trench are known for their
   fleshiness, perfect tastiness, big productivity, and big size.The record
   weight of a tomato registered to date is 1.7 kilograms. The main condition
   is that the local residents should not use any chemicals in the process of
   growing.The Minusinsk Tomato competition that will be held from July 19
   through to August 17 will have several nominations - 'An Exemplary Kitchen
   Garden', 'Exemplary Gardeners', 'The Culinary Mysteries of the Tomato',
   'The Tomato Parade', and 'The Minusinsk Champion'.A car will be the
   traditional prize for the biggest tomato.The Day of the Minusinsk tomato
   as such will be celebrated August 21.The guests from neighboring
   territories will bring along with them, in their turn nuts, honey, meat,
   poultry, fish, dairy products, and bakery products.The town's high street
   will turn into a huge marketplace where the owners of local kitchen
   gardens will sell vegetable, fruit and flowers.(Description of Source:
   Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)

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   22) Back to Top
   Vietnamese Communist Party's Sec Gen To Visit Forestry Academy In
   Petersburg - ITAR-TASS
   Monday July 12, 2010 01:30:07 GMT
   intervention)

   St PETERSBURG, July 12 (Itar-Tass) - Secretary General of Vietnam's Co
   mmunist Party, Nong Duc Manh, who is making an official visit to Russia,
   will spend Monday in St Petersburg.He arrived here Sunday afternoon and
   spent the rest of the day touring the city's most important sights and
   attended a performance of the Swan Lake at the Mikhailovsky
   theater.Officials at the press service of the St Petersburg government the
   business part of Nong Duc Manh's visit envisions a trip to the Forestry
   Academy, which he graduated from.He studied at the department of economics
   and administration.It is expected that he will hand to the academy a set
   of equipment for fitting out an advanced computerized class.Also, he will
   have meetings at the Smolny Institute where the city government offices
   are located.His discussions of cooperation will involve Deputy Governor
   Mikhail Osseyevsky who substitutes for Governor Valentina Matviyevnko when
   she is away on vacations.As an item traditional for such visits, Nong Duc
   Manh will go to the Piskaryovka memorial cemetery w here several hundred
   thousand people were buried in communal graves during the Siege of
   Leningrad from the end of 1941 through to the beginning of 1944.Monday
   night, Nong Duc Manh will leave for Hanoi.(Description of Source: Moscow
   ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)

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   23) Back to Top
   Moscow Court To Make Public Verdict On Arts Exhibition Organizers -
   ITAR-TASS
   Monday July 12, 2010 00:46:42 GMT
   intervention)

   MOSCOW, July 12 (Itar-Tass) - Moscow City's Taganka district court is due
   to make public a sentence on organizers of a scandal ous exhibition The
   Forbidden Art'2006 - the former director of the Andrei Sakharov Centrer,
   Yuri Samodurov, and the former chief of the newest artistic trends
   department at the Tretyakov Arts Gallery, Andrei Yerofeyev.In the process
   of court deliberations earlier, the public prosecutor asked the judges to
   consider the two defendants guilty of an offense under an article of the
   Criminal Code on "fomenting strife or hatred and humiliating human dignity
   with the aid of one's occupational position."The punishment requested by
   the prosecutor for both men is three years in a penal colony
   settlement.Both Yerofeyev and Samodurov said they do not recognize any
   guilt on their part and the defense asked the court to acquit them.The
   Forbidden Art'2006 exhibition was held at the Andrei Sakharov Center in
   Moscow from March 7 through March 31, 2007. It showed the works of art,
   which had been turned down by other Moscow museums and galleries for one
   reason or another.Some of the e xhibits concerned religion and their
   authors combined Christian symbols or sacred objects with the 'objects of
   everyday routine' or mass culture - Mickey Mouse, the black hole, obscene
   graffiti, etc.All the exhibits were hidden behind a false wall and one
   could see them only through special small slits in it.Officials of the
   Russian Orthodox Church expressed indignation with the exhibition asked
   the state agencies "to give an adequate legal and moral assessment to it",
   while the Narodny Sobor /People's Council/ Orthodox Patriotic movement
   filed a complaint with the Prosecutor's Office.Pending the acceptance of
   the complaint, a criminal case was instituted back in 2007 and charges
   were issued to the organizers of the exhibition.The indictment says: "The
   exhibition displayed the works that contained the images humiliating and
   insulting for the Christian faith and the citizens espousing it."For Yuri
   Samodurov, this is not the first criminal case.A similar ca se was
   instituted against him in 2004 in connection with a display titled Beware
   of Religion, held in January 2003.In March 2005, the Taganka district
   court recognized a provocative and insulting character of the display. It
   sentenced Samodurov and Sakharov center expert Lyudmila Veselovskaya to
   penalties of 100,000 rubles each.In the run-up to the reading-out of the
   sentence on the Forbidden Art'2006, Russian Culture Minister Alexander
   Avdeyev said the court persecution of Samodurov and Yerofeyev was
   ungrounded."I personally didn't like that exhibition," he said."Some
   people are scolding the organizers in tougher terms or even don't stretch
   a hand out to them and some find it quite appealing," Avdeyev
   said."Assessment to this should be passed at the level of morality and
   ethics rather than judiciary judgments," he said adding that Samodurov and
   Yerofeyev did not commit any trespasses."This was the instance of an
   outrage and I don't think t he Criminal Code can be applied here," Avdeyev
   said. "The attempts to do this have always been a failure
   here."(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main
   government information agency)

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   24) Back to Top
   Prosecution official, child, woman injured in two attacks in Russia's
   Dagestan - Interfax
   Sunday July 11, 2010 22:38:02 GMT
   Russia's Dagestan

   Text of report by corporate-owned Russian news agency
   InterfaxRostov-na-Donu, 12 July: Unknown people in Khasavyurt (Dagestan)
   have seriously injured chief assistant to the district pro secutor
   Sarazhedin Murtazaliyev and his two-year-old son, the Interfax-South news
   agency was told by Dagestani law-enforcement sources on Monday (12th
   July)."The incident occurred at about 2200 Moscow time (1800 gmt) on
   Sunday. Bandits opened massed intense fire from automatic weapons on the
   compact SUV in which the prosecutor's office employee was travelling with
   his two-year-old son," a spokesman told the agency.He said the
   prosecutor's office employee and his son sustained serious gunshot
   wounds.The bandits who attacked the prosecutor's office employee and his
   son fled in a VAZ-2114 car.Law-enforcement bodies also revealed that there
   was another attack in Khasavyurt an hour later, this time against the
   chief of the criminal police of the local ROVD (district internal affairs
   section)."Bandits opened fire on an armoured car of the high-ranking
   police official as he drove away from a house of his relatives. The
   lieutenant-colonel was not hurt in the shooting but a female relative was
   injured," a source said.He said that the Vulkan-5 (interception) plan was
   been put into effect in Khasavyurt, and measures were being taken to find
   those who carried out the two daring attacks on senior law-enforcement
   officials.(Description of Source: Moscow Interfax in Russian --
   Nonofficial information agency known for its extensive and detailed
   reporting on domestic and international issues)

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   25) Back to Top
   Technical Flight To Test New Runway At Novosibirsk Int'l Airport -
   ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 22:27:57 GMT
   interventi on)

   NOVOSIBIRSK, July 12 (Itar-Tass) - A special technical flight is to be
   performed at the international airport of Novosibirsk Monday for the
   purpose of testing a new runway, Svetalna Smirnova, a spokeswoman for the
   Tolmachevo airport told Itar-Tass.The testing flight will be performed by
   a Boeing 767-300 of the S7 airline."The objective of the test is to verify
   the operation readiness of the installations and systems of the runway for
   servicing regular flights," Smirnova said.Earlier, a laboratory jet did a
   successful testing of navigation systems and radio equipment of the
   runway.A special commission has been set up for organizing the technical
   flight and its members will also be the passengers aboard by Boeing
   767-300 Monday.The commission will draw up a confirmation act and will
   submit it to Russia's Federal Agency for Air Transport, which is due to
   pass the final decision on putting the runway into operation.The
   Tolmachevo airport's second runway will increase its traffic handling
   capacity twofold, which means the airport will be capable of servicing 36
   landings and takeoffs per hour.The total cost of the project stands at
   about 4 billion rubles /USD 1=RUB 31.2/.The cost of a linear running meter
   of the runway is more than 800,000 rubles.Tolmachevo is Russia's largest
   transit air junction to the east of the Ural Mountains on the routes
   linking Europe and Asia.Its technical capability allows the landings and
   takeoffs of the passenger and/or cargo jets of all types.Several days ago,
   Tomachevo serviced the millionth passenger since the beginning of the
   year.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main
   government information agency)

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   26) Back to Top
   Report Recalls Russian Spies' Attempt To Infiltrate Czech Army Top Brass
   in 2009
   Report by Jan Gazdik: "Russian Spies Penetrated All the Way to the Czech
   Army Command" - iDnes.cz
   Sunday July 11, 2010 22:36:30 GMT
   "The aim of this infiltration was the effort to obtain sensitive
   information from the arena of the highest command structures of the
   Defense Ministry," reads the annual report of the Military Intelligence
   Service (VOZ).

   A response from Czech authorities was not long in coming. And it was
   uncompromising. A total of seven Russian diplomats from the Department of
   the Military and Air Force Attache had to leave the Czech Republic
   quickly. "This completely decimated their network for some time," a
   well-informed source told Mlada Fronta Dnes. Czech Masterpiece?

   Incredibl e speculation is circulating in diplomatic circles about how
   high into the echelons of the Czech Army the Russians managed to penetrate
   and, in particular, how they did so. However, Jan Pejsek from the Defense
   Ministry refuses to provide any additional information: "We have already
   made public the maximum of what we could." Mlada Fronta Dnes

   has managed to find out from several sources that Russian
   counterintelligence contacted influential representatives of the army
   through a Czech citizen. These ties lasted several years, and the Czech
   commanders paid a price for them by being immediately dismissed from the
   army. The only thing that the VOZ has admitted is that an allied
   counterintelligence participated in uncovering the actions of Russian
   spies.

   Frantisek Bublan from the Czech Social Democratic Party (CSSD), chairman
   of the Defense and Security Committee of the Chamber of Deputies, views
   the intervention against the Russian spies as an excellent job of the
   Military Intelligence Service. As the former chief of Czech foreign
   espionage, he admits that it is always much more effective for a
   counterintelligence to monitor and wiretap foreign agents. "However, if
   they are expelled or arrested, they must have crossed the tolerable
   threshold and gotten quite far," he says.

   Russian agents were only expelled from the Czech Republic because they had
   the status of diplomats. Bublan admits that if this had not been the case,
   they could have faced imprisonment. He views their attempts to penetrate
   the Czech Army command as an alarming signal. A Czech Television
   Correspondent Was at the Receiving End as Well

   Josef Pazderka, former correspondent of Czech Television in Moscow, has
   thus learned only today why the Russians expelled him - it was in revenge
   for the dispersing of their intelligence network from the Czech Republic.
   "As a journalist, I became an unwanted part of an intelligence game that w
   as difficult to understand. You surprised me."

   "The Russians are trying very much to improve their relations with the
   West. However, this will not change their espionage strategy," adds Karel
   Pacner, an expert on intelligence services.

   (Description of Source: Prague iDnes.cz in Czech -- Website of Mlada
   Fronta Dnes, best-selling, independent, center-right daily; most popular
   print source among decisionmakers; URL: http://idnes.cz)

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   27) Back to Top
   Repair Teams Continue Restoring Damaged Railway In N Caucasus - ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 21:19:38 GMT
   intervention)

   MOSCOW, June 12 (Itar-Tass) - Repair teams continue restoration works at
   the Achi-Izerbash railway line in the North Caucasus region of Dagestan
   where a cargo train was blown up Sunday.A spokesman for the OAO RZD, the
   Russian state railway corporation, said more than a hundred technical
   experts and five repair echelons are working at the site of the incident
   right now."The traffic of trains has been suspended provisionally on that
   line," he said."Some passenger trains with more than 700 passengers aboard
   have been halted and we're providing hot meals and fresh water for the
   stranded customers," the spokesman said.To mitigate the inconveniences for
   the passengers, the RZD has offered bus transits to the railway stations
   where the passengers may take alternative trains.Law enforcement agencies
   say in the meantime the explosive device of a yet unidentified capacity
   went off under the locomotive of a cargo train at 04:15 Sunday at the
   2,335th kilometer of the North Caucasus railway line.The locomotive and
   sixteen coaches, including the thirteen ones carrying grain, cement and
   foodstuffs slid off the track and overturned as a result.No victims have
   been reported.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main
   government information agency)

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   28) Back to Top
   Suspected rebel shot dead, two police injured in blast in Russia's
   Dagestan - ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 21:40:44 GMT
   Dagestan

   A man described as a member of an illegal armed group was killed in a c
   lash with police in Dagestan in the North Caucasus region of Russia on 10
   July, Russian state news agency ITAR-TASS reported on the same day.The
   agency quoted the press service of the Dagestani Interior Ministry as
   saying that "law-enforcement bodies were carrying out an all-round
   preventive operation to find and neutralize members of illegal armed
   groups in a wooded area near the village of Gergenkala" in Buynakskiy
   District. "Towards the evening, a clash occurred between Interior Ministry
   employees and a group of armed men, as a result of which one militant was
   killed. He is now being identified," ITAR-TASS added.The agency said a
   camp used by militants had been discovered in the area on 8 July;
   ammunition and components to make explosive devices were found there. The
   operation to find and eliminate the remaining militants continues,
   ITAR-TASS said.In a separate incident in Dagestan reported by Russian
   state news agency RIA Novosti, two policemen were i njured in an explosion
   in the capital, Makhachkala. RIA Novosti quoted a spokesman for the
   Dagestani Interior Ministry as saying that a bomb thought to have been
   planted under or near a parked car in Akushinskiy Avenue near a cemetery
   went off at 0120 gmt on 11 July as another car carrying policemen was
   driving by. He added that the bomb contained a large amount of
   shrapnel.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in Russian -- Main
   government information agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   29) Back to Top
   Russian TV screens big report on Vostok-2010 exercise - Zvezda Television
   Sunday July 11, 2010 21:19:38 GMT
   Text of report by Russian Zvezda TV, Defence Ministry controlled, promotes
   patriotic values,(Film entitled "Vostok-2010: On the march towards the
   exercise") The eastern region of the Russian Federation is about half the
   country's entire territory but less than 20 per cent of its population.
   Its spaces are wide but its infrastructure is limited and the climate is
   harsh. There are thousands of kilometres of the state border, both land
   and sea. There are also factors like its abundant mineral and marine
   resources, plus science and industry centres of key national
   importance.This is the environment in which Vostok-2010, a large-scale
   operational-strategic military exercise, is being held in the Siberian and
   Far Eastern Military Districts and in the coastal waters of the Pacific
   Ocean from 29 June to 8 July 2010. Led by the Russian armed forces' chief
   of the General Staff (CGS), it involves the troops of the Siberian and Far
   Eastern Military Dis tricts, the forces of the Pacific Fleet and other
   fleets' warships, as well as some of the personnel and materiel of the
   Volga-Urals and Moscow Military Districts. A total of 11 all-arms military
   ranges, four air force and air defence ranges and four Pacific Fleet naval
   ranges are being used to hold the manoeuvres. (Telemba, Chita, Tsugol,
   Sergeyevskiy, Khabarovsk, Knyaze-Volkonskiy, Mys Klerk and Vladivostok
   sites shown marked on a map of the Russian Far East)(CGS Nikolay Makarov,
   also captioned as Vostok-2010 exercise leader, at a briefing) The theme
   chosen for the exercise is very complicated. It is the preparation and
   deployment of formations and units in a new table of organization and
   equipment, to accomplish missions in isolated sectors to ensure the
   military security of the Russian Federation. The aim of this exercise is,
   first, to test the formations and units that have been set up and the
   degree to which they are ready in connection with the switch to one year
   of m ilitary service, and to look at how the command and control agencies
   at operational and operational-strategic level that have been set up, as
   well as the newly created command and control system in the Russian
   Federation Armed Forces, function.We want to look at how effective the air
   defence system that has been created is as part of the
   operational-strategic command, and check a number of points to do with
   setting up a single - let me say again single - supply and maintenance
   system in the troops.(Correspondent) The Vostok-2010 operational-strategic
   military exercise is the largest-scale event in the operational combat
   training of the Russian armed forces this year and will become a logical
   continuation of the Osen-2009 (Autumn-2009) exercise which was held in
   Russia's western and northwestern regions and in Belarus. Up to 20,000
   service personnel, 70 aircraft, up to 2,500 units of armament, military
   and special hardware, as well 30 Russian Federation Navy warships are invo
   lved in the Vostok-2010 exercise. The troops will practise actions as part
   of inter-service and inter-departmental groupings, to which end three-tier
   command and control of the armed forces - operational-strategic command,
   operational command and brigade - will be tested.The plan is, as part of
   Vostok-2010, to carry out several separate command-post tactical exercises
   unconnected with each other - with live fire and subunits' redeployment
   over long distances, in different tactical and operational situations,
   with Ground Forces formations and units to be involved in training to
   localize and neutralize internal armed conflicts in unfamiliar and
   hard-to-access terrain, establish constitutional order, help the internal
   affairs agencies of Russia's Interior Ministry deal with the consequences
   of emergency situations, as well as for the warships of the Pacific Fleet
   to practise operations to help the borderguard agencies of Russia's FSB
   guard the sea border, disrupt the activities of poachers in our
   territorial waters and counter piracy in the region.(CGS Makarov) A large
   number of missions will have to be tackled by our air force. As you know,
   our Su-24M and Su-34 fighter bombers have flown as part of this exercise
   from airfields in the western part of the Russian Federation to Maritime
   Territory non-stop. They were refuelled in flight twice. During the
   flight, a whole range of tactical missions were accomplished in weapons
   delivery, as well as purely tactical tasks.(Correspondent) The naval
   personnel of the Northern and Black Sea Fleets were among the first to
   launch preparations for the Vostok-2010 operational-strategic exercise.The
   flagship of the Northern Fleet, the heavy nuclear cruiser Petr Velikiy
   (Pyotr Velikiy), left on its passage to the Far East on 29 March. Over
   almost two months at sea, it travelled 15,000 nautical miles over the seas
   of as many as four oceans, passed through La Manche, the Strait of
   Gibraltar and the Suez Canal, and fo ught pirates in the Gulf of Aden,
   where its naval infantry had to inspect suspect fishing vessels.Finally,
   it rendezvoused with the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, the missile
   cruiser Moskva, in the Indian Ocean. Two weeks of a joint cruise followed,
   with numerous exercises and drills by their crews, gunnery practice and
   flights by naval aviation. Actions in the event of radioactive or chemical
   contamination, the transfer of cargo from ship to ship, towing and
   fighting fires on board at sea were just some of the drills worked
   through.(Vladislav Malakhovskiy, captioned as Petr Velikiy executive
   officer) All the missions assigned and episodes allocated have been
   completed. Collaboration between the two ships was also successfully
   practised. Our actions were quite skilful. We met all the
   targets.(Correspondent) So, a lot happened as the Petr Velikiy and the
   Mosvka steamed towards Maritime Territory. Finally, they were greeted by a
   line-up at the Pacific Fleet base of Fokino. A fter a short rest, there
   was another month and a half of hard work in the form of preparations for
   the exercise, this time jointly with warships and submarines from the
   Pacific Fleet.As for the flagship of the Pacific Fleet, the missile
   cruiser Varyag, it arrived at the exercise site from a long passage to the
   US coast - the port of San Francisco, with Russian President and Supreme
   Commander-in-Chief Dmitriy Medvedev on a visit there at the time. During
   it, he also went aboard the Guards Missile Cruiser Varyag. During that
   long passage, the sailors were busy getting ready for the exercise to
   come, as the officers, warrant officers and sailors perfected their combat
   skills, learnt how to cope with the forces of the sea, saw far-away places
   but also, what was also very important, flew the St Andrew Flag (of the
   Russian Navy) worldwide. They prove that Russia is, in practice rather
   than just in theory, a major sea power and a force to be reckoned
   with.(Commercial break)(Over fo otage of warplanes at airfield, captioned
   Voronezh) Meanwhile - in the fifth ocean - two squadrons of Su-24M
   frontline bombers flew several thousand kilometres from one end of Russia
   to the other non-stop, refuelled in flight twice. They took off for the
   Far East from Baltimor Airbase in Voronezh. The aircraft flew in pairs,
   half an hour between them. The first time the fighter bombers were
   refuelled in the air on their way was over the Urals, then over Siberia.
   Airfields in the Trans-Baykal region, Khabarovsk and Maritime Territories
   were their final destination. They were airborne for six to eight hours at
   6,000 metres, their average speed 800 kilometres an hour. A long-haul
   flight non-stop like that over the whole of Russia on a supersonic
   frontline bomber is a privilege reserved for the true professional.
   Indeed, to refuel in-flight is one of the hardest tasks for the pilot, so
   preparations by the crew to fly this complex sortie began well in
   advance.(Vladislav Lef, capt ioned as airbase chief of staff) The mission
   is highly complex in itself. However, the process during which it is
   accomplished makes the crew feel as though they have achieved something.
   It promotes self-respect and makes us feel that the missions assigned to
   us by our Motherland will be accomplished and that we are not a total
   waste of money.(Correspondent, over video of large aircraft, captioned
   Yekaterinburg) The three air tankers, full of fuel, prepare to take off
   from Yekaterinburg airfield. Groups of air tankers just like this are now
   at work all along the way as frontline aviation flies towards the exercise
   site. They have the position of the other aircraft. The heavy-lift Il-78
   is on its way to the rendezvous point. A group of fighter bombers approach
   from the west. The unwieldy and slow air tanker saves time for the
   streamlined Su-24 and the latest Su-34. They have already flown almost
   3,000 km. A distance twice that long is still ahead. Flying non-stop, that
   distan ce can be covered in a matter of hours.(Vladimir Atadzhanov,
   captioned as Il-78 co-pilot) The most important thing is to make accurate
   navigational calculations and to arrive at the rendezvous point at the
   exact time, so that they do not have to wait for us and we do not have to
   wait for them.(Correspondent) In the tail section of the aircraft,
   preparations are under way by the operator for the fighter bombers with
   which it has rendezvoused to be refuelled, which calls for utmost
   attention. As it dispenses fuel, it does so to two aircraft at the same
   time. They are just 24 metres away from the air tanker. A lot depends on
   the pilot of the frontline bomber. Here you can see a tense moment, as one
   aircraft fails to dock the way it should be done and fuel spills out. It
   has another go, and 20 minutes later, the Su-24 that has now been fed
   moves away.(Aleksandr Belyayev, captioned as fuel-up operator)
   Well-coordinated actions by the crews of the air tanker and the one to be
   fuel led up shall we say, are the key point. Where we are now is the tail
   cabin. This is the fuel-up operator's station, where, properly, all the
   work is done. The weather is normal, good, we can say, with full
   visibility, so today there were no situations that could have been
   described as out of the ordinary, particularly difficult.(Correspondent)
   The air tanker is not used to flying this fast, at 570 kilometres an hour,
   but it has to adjust to the Su-24's high speed. They follow each other
   towards the Il-78's fuel lines, like hungry kittens to their
   mummy.(Mikhail Maksimov, captioned as deputy airbase commander) Over the
   past 15-16 years, there have been no exercises with the air force on a
   large scale like this, with such a large number of aircraft. That is why
   it is even taking a few days to redeploy. Our colleagues, their combat
   aircraft, are not used to flying long-range like this. They are in the air
   for more than six hours.(Correspondent) They will be refuelled next over
   Novosibirsk, Irkutsk or Blagoveshchensk. Over their three-hour-long
   flight, the three air tankers delivered fuel to 10 warplanes at once. More
   are on their way. The Il-78s got top marks for the missions they flew
   during this exercise, quickly to allow the fighter bombers' crews to fly
   on eastwards. As for the air force command, well-trained pilots like these
   allow it to plan combat operations by frontline aviation in a new
   way.(Over video of a mine-detection drill on a rail track, captioned
   Krasnoyarsk Territory) As part of preparations for the Vostok-2010
   operational-strategic military exercise, a special exercise by the rear
   services has been held in the Siberian Military District to work through
   issues to do with the formation of a single supply and maintenance system
   in the troops. This is how one of the episodes in that exercise started.
   The noise is just like during real-life bombardment. Even though the
   simulated enemy's missile and bomb strike is just that - simulate d - its
   outcome is still real: A bridge across a tributary to the Yenisey has been
   destroyed. A fire has started. It is being extinguished both on the ground
   and from the air. Once the flames have been put out, it gets hot from the
   work that's being done. Railway Troops soldiers and officers - the main
   force of this particular exercise - are at the scene. Railway Troops
   frogmen - yes, they really exist - are the first to join in, or to be more
   precise, to dive into action to repair the damage. To start with, a diver
   has to don a suit like this, which is no mean feat. What is harder still,
   Maksim explains, is to work underwater. In his 80-kilo gear, he has
   thoroughly to examine the bottom of the river following the
   explosions.(Maksim Lagoshin, captioned as diver) Logs might be lodged down
   there, which have to be strapped and lifted.(Correspondent) Finally, the
   divers give the all-clear. A ferry bridge is deployed in the stream. It is
   quickly put together nearby. The 37-metre crossing afloat is towed on five
   special pontoons. With the ferry put together and deployed in the middle
   of the river, only half the job is done. The most difficult thing is to
   put together two river-bank sections of the crossing. Each of them
   consists of dozens of metal structures that weigh many tonnes. Meanwhile,
   the regulations give no more than 12 hours to build a bridge like that. If
   they have not managed to do it on time, it means they have failed their
   professional-training exam. Almost all of the bridge builders are
   conscript soldiers. They serve in the 5th Separate Railway Brigade, which
   is stationed on the border between Khakassia and Krasnoyarsk Territory.
   For many, this exercise completes their military service. They are to be
   demobbed in a matter of days, hence their real excitement, like at a real
   exam. Besides that, this drill is among the first as part of the
   Vostok-2010 large-scale exercise. Bad luck - a section of the bridge
   stubbornly refuses to slot int o place.(Dmitriy Bulgakov, chief of the
   Russian Federation Armed Forces Rear Services and deputy defence minister)
   That is why we train. That is how we learn. How can we punish them for
   that? Accidents will happen. On the contrary, what we must do is create
   problems for the men to think about what technical solutions to
   use.(Correspondent) A bridge that has been built the right way must be
   able to take a load of 150 tonnes. No sooner than almost every one of its
   nuts has been tightened than shots ring out on the river bank again. It is
   simulated gunmen that are now trying to seize control of the bridge, now
   repaired. Wrenches in the hands of the Railway Troops men instantly give
   way to assault rifles. After just a few minutes of a fast-moving
   firefight, the enemy is neutralized.(Ivan Parutkin, captioned as
   serviceman) As the scenario of our exercise goes, we are both to build a
   bridge and to defend it.(Correspondent) After several hours of explosions,
   shooting and hard work, the moment of truth arrives: The crossing now has
   to be put to the test as - with a ceremony - a train rolls over it. That
   afterwards the bridge is still to be dismantled, no-one definitely wants
   to think about right now.On the day the Siberian troops had their
   largest-scale training session, the monks of the Tsugol datsan (as
   received) marked the Khural, one of the main Buddhist holidays. Lamas from
   all over the district come to pray here. Although their religion is the
   most peaceful of all, they are saying, they will not fail to ask Buddha
   for luck for the military. After all, it is they who, once upon a time,
   helped preserve one of the oldest monasteries in the Trans-Baykal region.
   Moreover, timed to coincide with the exercise, they made another present:
   They put up a mobile phone mast near the holy site.(Aleksandr Rabdanov,
   captioned as the Tsugol datsan's lama) Thanks to the military and this
   exercise, we now have communications. They were promising to provide us
   with communications for many years. We had none, we have been waiting for
   two years maybe. With this exercise in mind, it was put up
   quickly.(Correspondent, over video captioned Tsugol range, Trans-Baykal
   Territory) While the monks are at prayer, a real mini-war flares up
   nearby. Armour is on the move towards the river. The simulated enemy has
   dug in on the opposite bank. They go on the offensive in a classic
   fashion. It starts with artillery bombardment. While artillery is in
   action to suppress the enemy's forward line of defence, a subunit of
   sapper engineers is landed on the enemy bank to check for mines there.
   Reconnaissance comes next. Their task is a little more complicated - to
   locate and destroy the enemy's firing positions.(Aleksey Volkov, captioned
   as reconnaissance company commander) Reconnaissance men are always in the
   mood to fight. Of course, I had to give them a pep talk. I spoke about the
   importance of this drill, about the importance of reconnaissance in
   combat. After all, the quality of reconnaissance is what how many losses
   are taken during combat depends on.(Correspondent) The objective of this
   motor-rifle force is a complex one. It is, without slowing down, to cross
   a river and then drive the enemy off the positions they take. In how
   well-coordinated a fashion and how quickly they do it now depends on how
   well-trained they are for combat.There can be no place better suited for
   drills like this. This is the Tsugol range, which is one of the largest in
   Russia. Its area is almost 800 kilometres square, with mountains, woodland
   and waterways. Even though the rounds fired are blank, it detracts nothing
   from the spectacular and grandiose scale of the exercise.Warrant Officer
   Pimkin (phonetic) sounds the reveille. It means that it is six in the
   morning. The field camp wakes up. The soldier's every day starts with
   physical exercises - a bracing run to begin with, followed by a warm-up.
   Aleksandr has already got used to this timetable, e ven though he has not
   been in the army long. He says that, of course, at first he found it odd
   living in the steppes. He has now come to like it.(Aleksandr Molotkov,
   captioned as private) Variety is the spice of life - away from the
   barracks, in the open air. Drills are also interesting. Yesterday, for
   example, we were firing Grads, launching a salvo.(Correspondent) Several
   months of sleeping in tents and washing outdoors - that is the romantic
   essence of military service as a soldier in the Ground Forces. Here, there
   are several thousand of them, plus not much less military hardware. The
   field camp of the Vostok-2010 exercise stretches over many kilometres.
   From above, it is like a town. During the day, however, it is almost empty
   - everyone is involved in drills of one kind or another.The start of this
   particular episode in the rear-services exercise was unusual. Local cows
   had to be driven away from the military range. Otherwise, it would be
   dangerous. In a minute, a conv oy of vehicles turns up at a bridge across
   the river Aga (phonetic). A few seconds later, the simulated enemy's
   ground-attack planes roar over the steppe. After the aircraft cut off one
   route, they blow up another, too. Then a road-commandant battalion gets
   down to work. Engineers have established that the bridge cannot be
   repaired, so a new one starts to be assembled. It is being done by hand
   and quickly. In real combat, conditions will be no different.While the
   railway troops build the bridges, the command post of a logistical support
   regiment comes under attack in the woods nearby from a reconnaissance
   group of enemy subversives. At first, the rear services subunits try to
   defend against the attack themselves but they are outnumbered.
   Reinforcements have to be called in. The Spetsnaz are the first at the
   scene. They are followed into action by the subunits of a motor-rifle
   brigade.It is not just local commanders who watch the subversives being
   captured. More than 40 rear services chiefs from all over Russia have come
   to see this special exercise by the rear services in the Trans-Baykal
   region - and not just to watch them in action but to learn in order later
   to stage similar drills in their military districts. While here, they will
   also look at how properly to cater for the soldier in the field.Take
   bread, for example. This bakery can be deployed literally in a couple of
   hours. It makes 12 tonnes of the tastiest of loaves a day - enough to feed
   8,000 men. The visitors also found a freshly baked crust
   irresistible.(Stanislav Ostroukhov, captioned as senior baker) Even the
   Spetsnaz have to be fed. Without bread, they can neither run nor
   shoot.(Officer, uncaptioned) It is even crusty. This bread is really of
   very good quality and very tasty. It will give any civilian bakery a run
   for its money.(Correspondent) Also here, at the Tsugol range, organizing
   catering for the personnel of a motor-rifle brigade by means of
   outsourcing is being tested fo r the first time ever in the Russian army -
   that is when civilian organizations are paid to provide these services.
   This exercise has to provide an answer to the question of to what extent
   this method of logistical support for the troops, which is widespread in
   the armies of NATO's countries, can be adapted to Russia's
   conditions.(Soldier, uncaptioned) There are more amenities here, that's
   what I mean, which also ups our appetite.(Correspondent) New bath and
   laundry facilities were also shown off. Each of these new washing
   machines, for example, can sort out 25 kilos of field uniform an hour -
   highly necessary, officers noted, especially during field musters. And
   here is another item of equipment that premiered at this rear-services
   exercise. It is an experimental mobile modular complex - the future of
   soldiers' life. From the outside, it looks like an ordinary container.
   Inside, however, it has a kitchen, a leisure room and a canteen that can
   serve around 500 men in one go. Even its wash basins and showers are all
   very high-tech.(Over video of two soldiers underneath an armoured vehicle)
   Soldiers, meanwhile, have high-tech equipment of their own to worry about
   - for instance, thinking up ways to repair an APC for it not to die on
   them next time. It is always like this in the field: Even when you are not
   on the range, your military hardware is never far away. After each outing
   into the steppes, it is thoroughly washed, repaired and touched up with
   paint, even when the temperature is more than 40 Centigrade and it seems
   that even armour starts to melt. It all still needs to be done, Mikhail
   explains.(Mikhail Basov, captioned as tank driver-mechanic) A combat
   vehicle is like a woman. It needs TLC. If you don't look after her, she
   will also let you down. Who needs that? In the army, your military vehicle
   must always be ready.(Correspondent) Supplying combat vehicles with fuel
   is another mission rear-services units have. This is how it can be done,
   with a temporary oil pipeline laid to where military hardware is
   stationed. The soldiers and officers from a pipeline battalion of the
   Siberian Military District tackle their task quickly. And here is another
   way - for a mobile fuel station to be set up in the field. Tanks and
   armoured personnel carriers come to it themselves. The requirement is 20
   vehicles in eight minutes. Throughout that period, helicopters are
   overhead to provide air cover.The exercise culminates in the crossing of
   the River Onon. It is here that, as legend has it, the great Genghis Khan
   was born and began to assemble his horde. These hills now form part of the
   Tsugol range, the largest all-arms one in Russia. Tank battalions showed
   off their combat prowess when they forded the river. Here, tank crew for
   several minutes turn into submariners, with just the tanks' snorkels
   visible above the surface of the water. While underwater, they have to
   move blind, with the use of instruments, without stumbling ove r a boulder
   and getting stuck. This time round, there were no problems, and no-one had
   to be towed out of the water. The command gave the actions of the tank
   troops the mark defined as satisfactory, which on the army's scale is not
   bad at all. The rear services also coped well: They were able to deploy a
   pontoon bridge in almost half the time they were given. Even if there were
   shortcomings, no-one gave anyone a hard time about it: After all, that is
   why training exercises are held - to train the soldiers. According to the
   commanders, almost all of those involved in the Vostok-2010 exercise are
   conscripts and have not been in the army long, so will still have time to
   train.(Vladimir Donskikh, captioned as commander of 5th Separate Tank
   Brigade) The most important thing is that they are managing to master
   their trade much more quickly now and there is much more practice, because
   there are exercises every day, 10 hours a day, and everything is real,
   practical, on the ground, o n their hardware in the field.(Correspondent)
   Exotic Buryat and Mongol dances in the middle of the steppe are not
   something many of the soldiers have ever seen before. Today, performers
   from a local district centre are at the field camp. This show is a
   well-deserved break and the last chance to relax: The active phase of the
   exercise starts tomorrow. Then, even if songs are sung on the Tsugol
   range, the only kind they will be will certainly be marching ones.(Over
   video captioned Chita) The troops' three-tier command and control system -
   operational-strategic command, operational command and brigade - is being
   put to the test, too, as part of preparations for the holding of the
   Vostok-2010 exercise. New directives are delivered to the commanders from
   the headquarters on-line, with the introduction of a new automated command
   and control system. During the exercise, for the first time, it is being
   used by the troops of the Siberian Military District. That was preceded by
   specia l courses to train operator officers.(CGS Makarov) As part of
   preparations for this exercise, much was indeed done - both instruction
   and tuition classes, and officer training to increase their skill levels.
   I have already mentioned here that we will be working through a number of
   tasks at a new command and control post. Virtually all of our
   operational-level officers, not only in the Siberian but also Far Eastern
   Military Districts, have been trained at the Moscow centre here, to master
   the fundamentally new command and control technology that we are now
   developing and introducing into the troops. So, quite a large amount of
   work has been done in that respect, to do with training. (End of Part 1.
   More to follow)(Description of Source: Moscow Zvezda Television in Russian
   -- Commercial channel founded by the Russian Defense Ministry and private
   investors; it offers a mix of news, entertainment, and military-themed
   programming aimed at promoting patriotic values)

   Materi al in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   30) Back to Top
   Spain Win 2010 World Cup - ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 21:30:41 GMT
   intervention)

   JOHANNESBURG, July 12 (Itar-Tass) - Spanish national team has won the 2010
   World Cup after beating Holland 1 - 0.The goal was scored by Andres
   Iniesta in the 116th minute of the game.(Description of Source: Moscow
   ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to N TIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   31) Back to Top
   Russian finance minister labelled as 'leader of the opposition' by Putin's
   party - Center TV
   Sunday July 11, 2010 20:42:27 GMT
   opposition" by Putin's party

   Text of report by Russian Centre TV, owned by the Moscow city government,
   on 10 July(Presenter) This week One Russia has uncovered opposition to the
   authorities and not just anywhere but in the government of the country
   itself and announced that not just anyone but Deputy Prime Minister and
   Finance Minister Aleksey Kudrin is the leader of this opposition. What
   lies behind is Kudrin's support for such an unpopular measure as raising
   the pension age, which One Russia is categorically against. Admittedly,
   the probability that one of Vladimir Putin's oldest comrades-in-arms is a
   lso the secret leader of the liberal opposition does not look high, to put
   it bluntly. Still, is One Russia right in its suspicions? And why did it
   decide to launch an attack on Kudrin? Vladimir Rudakov tried to find
   out.(Correspondent) It seems that this week Aleksey Kudrin came under
   attack from left, right and centre. The leader of the CPRF (Communist
   Party of the Russian Federation), Gennadiy Zyuganov, even accused Kudrin
   of disrupting the plan for modernizing the country, no less.(Gennadiy
   Zyuganov, captioned as head of the CPRF faction in the State Duma) As for
   modernization, Aleksey Leonidovich (Kudrin), had I been president, I would
   have torn off your ears together with your head. You are sabotaging a
   programme which the president regards as his key programme.(Correspondent)
   But One Russia went further than the Communists. Through the mouthpiece of
   deputy Andrey Isayev the party accused the deputy prime minister and
   finance minister of well nigh all mortal sins. To b egin with, Isayev
   criticized Kudrin for saying that the pension age should be raised. But
   Isayev did not stop there. Kudrin is trying to provoke voters'
   dissatisfaction, so that One Russia gets fewer votes at the 2011
   elections, the MP said.What is the ill-meaning minister trying to
   achieve?(Dmitriy Orlov, captioned as general director of the Agency for
   Political and Economic Communications) It is One Russia that would have to
   implement the decision which Kudrin was talking about. This would mean a
   sharp reduction in its chances at the 2011 parliamentary
   elections.(Valeriy Khomyakov, captioned as general director of the Council
   on National Strategy) Simply everyone has their own agenda. For Aleksey
   Kudrin it is money and for Andrey Isayev and other One Russia
   functionaries it is the future vote of the electorate. It is obvious that
   this decision, if adopted, would seriously undermine One Russia's
   popularity rating - hence, everyone pursues their own
   agenda.(Correspondent) De puty Isayev, however, decided to deal another
   blow to Kudrin and expressed a supposition that it is Aleksey Kudrin who
   is now the leader of Russian liberals.(Quoting Isayev, as captioned on the
   screen) As of today, our opponents on the right are not organized into a
   party but it is during the current political season that they found a new
   leader who is objectively a political party substitute for them. This
   leader is Aleksey Leonidovich Kudrin.(Isayev) I can reiterate that he has
   become the banner of all liberal forces that are opposed to the party. As
   soon as One Russia's polemic against Kudrin broke out, all of our
   card-carrying liberals rose to his defence.(Correspondent) It is not
   surprising that after these words the party mouthpiece, the er.ru website,
   had the eye-catching headline reading "Kudrin goes into
   opposition".(Quoting the website, as captioned on the screen) Isayev has
   been proved right because the liberal opposition opened its embrace to
   Kudrin, sa id the website. Indeed, in the Right Cause party they are not
   hiding that they assess Aleksey Kudrin's achievements very highly.(Leonid
   Gozman, captioned as co-chairman of the Right Cause party) I regard
   Aleksey Leonidovich Kudrin as one of the best finance ministers in the
   history of Russia, the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union and the Russian
   Federation. He is one of the best. I am convinced that it is Kudrin's
   professionalism and civic courage that saved the country during the crisis
   period.(Correspondent) The right even consider Kudrin as a like-minded
   person.(addressing Gozman) Do you see Kudrin as a man whose is
   ideologically close to you?(Gozman) Of course, I believe that we are
   like-minded people. It goes without saying.(Correspondent) It seems
   Isayev's allegations are being confirmed. Kudrin shares the same views as
   the Right Cause, so he could be the secret leader of the opposition to the
   tandem. But is this really so?(Khomyakov) It is no secret that Aleksey
   Kudrin was closer to (market reformers in the early 1990s Yegor) Gaydar
   and (Anatoliy) Chubays. I simply know this. His beliefs are evidently
   liberal, but beliefs and leadership are two different things.(Orlov) I
   think Isayev slightly exaggerates when he says that Kudrin leads some
   liberal opposition. Kudrin is a technocrat and Kudrin is loyal to Prime
   Minister Putin. Yes, he is a man of liberal views, and this is well known,
   but of course he leads no liberal opposition of any kind.(Correspondent)
   At the same time, it is not accidental that Andrey Isayev could see
   sedition in Kudrin's pronouncements. Some time ago, another liberal in the
   authorities - the former minister of economic development and trade, and
   now the chairman of Sberbank, German Gref - called for large-scale
   political reform. His words could be interpreted along the lines that Gref
   is against the vertical power structure built under Putin.(Quoting Gref,
   as captioned on the screen) The first stage of economic refor m, during
   which the existence of a rigidly-controlled system was necessary, is
   coming to an end, Gref said some time ago. Russia should carry out
   large-scale political reforms to ensure future economic growth, (Gref
   said).The former minister of economic development and trade named the
   conditions needed for the future development of the country. According to
   him, these are the freedom of speech, the state reducing its role as far
   as possible and competition, including political one. I think, Gref said,
   that we have a good chance to demand a new round of reform desperately
   needed by our country.These remarks did not go unnoticed in the West. I
   quote - It is extremely rare for such a high-ranking member of the
   establishment to make public pronouncements about political reform, wrote
   the British news agency, Reuters. Such pronouncements are indeed rare. And
   One Russia immediately smelled a rat. But prudently it is not calling for
   Kudrin's or Gref's resignation.(Isayev) We are no t raising the question
   in this way - we trust the government chairman, who is the leader of our
   party. We believe that his personnel policy is dictated by sensible
   considerations. For him it must be important to hear, among other things,
   the position of the liberal wing. For him it is important to have this
   liberal wing participating in working out coordinated policy. But thus
   does not mean that we have to agree with this liberal wing.(Correspondent)
   So, One Russia does not agree (with Kudrin) and exposes him but is not
   calling for him to be kicked out. So, what is the point of the exposure,
   you may ask. The reply may be lying in the famous fable (by Ivan Krylov):
   Well, this lapdog must be strong since it barks at the
   elephant.(Description of Source: Moscow Center TV in Russian -- TV network
   owned by Moscow Mayor Luzhkovs city government; often promotes nationalist
   views)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission fo r use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   32) Back to Top
   Memorial Human Rights Activists Fear for Their Safety in Chechnya
   Article by Sofiya Sardzhveladze: "Kadyrov Pointed out 'Enemies of the
   People' to Residents of Chechnya" - GZT.ru
   Sunday July 11, 2010 19:22:04 GMT
   accomplices of terrorists. The Memorial human rights centre fears for the
   lives of its employees working in Chechnya after Ramzan Kadyrov called
   them enemies of the people, of the law and the state in an interview to a
   local television channel. Memorial is not ruling out the possibility of
   suspending its work in the republic and lodging action against Kadyrov,
   but the question of temporary withdrawal from Chechnya has not yet been
   considered. Kadyrov's representatives maintain that the leader of the
   republic is only criticizing those who support terrorists.

   The official statement by Memorial, published on Thursday 8 July on the
   organization's website, states that in an interview in Groznyy on 3 July,
   Ramzan Kadyrov called people involved in the human rights organization
   "enemies of the people, "enemies of the law", and "enemies of the state"
   who had "betrayed the idea of the motherland". The interview was given in
   the Chechen language and translated by the human rights activists
   themselves. Direct Threat

   In the opinion of Memorial, such a statement by Kadyrov in today's
   Chechnya is "a direct and overt threat". Local officials and
   law-enforcement bodies will interpret the words of the republic's
   president as an instruction to act against Memorial and its employees and
   to declare that Memorial members are acting outside the law, with all t he
   ensuing consequences.

   The human rights activists note that during the first half of 2009, the
   Chechen authorities "increasingly" made public attacks on them. Natalya
   Estemirova was killed on 15 July. A year later, human rights activists are
   seeing a similar situation and fear that the public declaration that they
   are enemies of the people, the law and the state "may lead to new tragic
   events".

   Memorial stresses that Kadyrov's interview is facilitating the incitement
   of hatred, illegal force, and the infringement of women's rights in
   Chechnya.

   "The president of the republic openly endorses illegal acts, the firing of
   paint at women whose appearance does not conform to his ideas about
   modesty," the human rights activists point out.

   From Ramzan Kadyrov's interview:

   (Correspondent) Your opponents say that you are taking upon yourself the
   adoption of difficult political decisions.

   (Kadyrov) You are talking about the corrupt journalists who write anything
   for the sake of money? And there are human rights activists receiving
   money from the West and saying what they want. But opponents ... who do
   you mean by that?

   (Correspondent) Those you have just mentioned...

   (Kadyrov) They are not my opponents, I consider them to be traitors,
   traitors. They have betrayed the idea of the homeland, the idea of the
   nation. If they are saying that about me... If people told me: "Ramzan,
   you are wrong about this..." Well, yes, it happens, I make mistakes, I do
   not deliberately make mistakes. It was not me ... it might be either a
   police officer or some official. He does things, he builds things, and in
   the process he makes a mistake. People adopt laws, you understand? There
   are lawyers who evade this law

   So? Does this mean Orlov is a greater patriot in my republic than I am?
   Does he support my republic? I have lost everything. I have lost loved
   ones who have been ki lled. Whether it is Orlov, or a man and a woman from
   Memorial in Gudermes, or someone else ... what have they done for the
   republic? They get a big salary from the West and in order to account for
   their activities, they write filth and rubbish on the Internet. That is
   why they are not my opponents.

   They are the enemies of the people, the enemies of the law, and the
   enemies of the state. "Ceasing Activities Will Not Add to Security"

   Oleg Orlov, the head of the human rights center, said in reply to a
   question from GZT.RU that he does not rule out raising the issue of
   suspending Memorial's work in the republic, but this question has not yet
   been discussed by the human rights activists.

   You may recall that a year ago, after the murder of human rights activist
   Natalya Estemirova on 15 July, Memorial temporarily suspended its
   activities in Chechnya and resumed them again on 16 December on "the firm
   insistence" of the center's employees work ing in this North Caucasian
   republic. Orlov added that he is not sure that suspending Memorial's work
   in Chechnya "will add to anyone's security".

   Commenting on the possibility of Memorial lodging a suit against Kadyrov
   in connection with his statements, Orlov noted that this matter was at the
   discussion stage. "We want benefits for society as a whole and security
   for our employees," the head of Memorial stressed.

   It cannot be ruled out that Memorial's high-profile statements after
   Kadyrov's interview might be interpreted as an attempt to distract public
   attention from charges directed at Orlov himself, against whom criminal
   proceedings have been instigated for libelling Kadyrov. However, the head
   of Memorial told GZT.RU that during the entire period that the
   investigation into the case has lasted, neither he nor his colleagues have
   ever tried to keep the process quiet, but have rather sought to draw the
   maximum of attention to it.

   Or lov added that fewer and fewer people believe that the killers of
   Natalya Estemirova will be found. The human rights activist says that a
   number of facts indicate that the investigation will simply nominate
   murderers among the dead militants. This will be the pretext for
   terminating the criminal proceedings. "Everyone will be satisfied, apart
   from us, Natalya's relatives, and society," Orlov concluded. "People
   Slander Kadyrov, Putin, and Frequently Medvedev As Well"

   Ramzan Kadyrov's lawyer Andrey Krasnenkov, in turn told GZT.RU that the
   Chechen president has only ever sharply criticized those human rights
   activists who support and condone terrorism. He includes Oleg Orlov and
   other members of the Memorial among them.

   According Krasnenkov, such human rights activists are demanding that the
   authorities take alive militants who have shot back, despite the deaths of
   law-enforcement officers, and they also sympathize not with the victims,
   but wit h the organizers and executors of terrorist acts. "There was
   recently an attempt to attack a cinema auditorium in Groznyy. Nine people
   were seriously injured, including two women. Did even one human rights
   activist of 'Memorial orientation' sympathize with them? Silence," the
   lawyer said indignantly.

   Krasnenkov maintains that terrorists accused of serious crimes often
   resort to Memorial's help. For example, a gunman suspected of murder and
   robbery was killed recently in Dagestan. An appeal to the human rights
   organization was found on him.

   The lawyer stressed that the Chechen authorities will meet the human
   rights activists halfway. Krasnenkov says that he was a witness to human
   rights activists negotiating a visit to a pre-trial detention facility,
   and the authorities suggested that they themselves choose any time for
   visits that would be convenient to them.

   However, in the opinion of Kadyrov's lawyer, all statements by human
   rights activists who are members of the Memorial Center board, are aimed
   at ordinary people who believe that everything is bad in Chechnya, but in
   actual fact there is "order, peace and quiet" there. Such human rights
   activists want to destabilize the situation in Chechnya and the rest of
   Russia, that is why they are constantly slandering either Kadyrov, or
   Putin, and now frequently Medvedev as well, Krasnenkov said.

   From the interview with Ramzan Kadyrov:

   (Correspondent) There have been incidents in the city where paint has been
   fired at girls not wearing headscarves. There were rumors that this was
   done with your permission...

   (Kadyrov) Even if it had been with my permission I would not be ashamed. I
   have dealt with this issue. Wh o had paint fired at them? A naked woman
   who was swallowing some medicine. In fact, it turns out that the girls who
   had paint fired at them had been warned several times before this. This
   girl, after such an incident, should have si mply disappeared from the
   face of the earth, locked herself in at home and not go out because she
   behaved so improperly that such a thing happened to her. She should be
   ashamed to talk about it at home. How will she look her brother in the
   eye? 'I was half-naked, my stomach was visible, my skirt super-short, my
   t-shirt was see-through..' But I did not see the girls that had this paint
   fired at them. People said that they had it fired at them.

   (Correspondent) With your permission?

   (Kadyrov) How could I permit paint to be fired at people?

   (Correspondent) And you do not know who is doing this?

   (Kadyrov) I do not know but when I find them I will express my gratitude
   to them! Criminal Case

   Memorial's statement was the latest step in the protracted confrontation
   between Kadyrov and the human rights activists, which entered a new phase
   after the murder of human rights activist Natalya Estemirova on 15 July
   last year. On the very day that Estemirov a was killed, Oleg Orlov blamed
   her death on Kadyrov.

   "I know, I am sure who is to blame for the murder of Natasha Estemirova.
   We all know this man. His name is Ramzan Kadyrov, he is the president of
   the Chechen Republic. Ramzan has already threatened Natalya, insulted her,
   and he considered her his personal enemy. We do not know whether he gave
   the order himself, or whether this was done by his closest associates in
   order to please their bosses. And a murderer as the leader of one of the
   component parts of the Russian Federation evidently suits President
   Medvedev," Orlov stated publicly.

   In response, Kadyrov decided to institute libel proceedings against the
   head of Memorial and he turned to the law-enforcement bodies. Admittedly,
   some time later the Chechen president decided to withdraw the suit, after
   his mother Aymani Kadyrova pointed out to him that arguing with elderly
   people is not among the traditions of the Chechen people.

   However, no reconciliation occurred between the parties. Kadyrov's lawyer
   Andrey Krasnenkov said that all attempts to contact Orlov had ended in
   failure, and as a result the investigation of the criminal case had
   continued. Orlov and Memorial have already been fined within the framework
   of the civil case relating to this episode.

   On Tuesday 6 July, Oleg Orlov was formally charged in the criminal case of
   slandering Ramzan Kadyrov in connection with the murder of Estemirova.

   (Description of Source: Moscow Gzt.ru -- Informative news website owned by
   metals magnate Lisin; not affiliated with the Gazeta.ru website; URL:
   http://gzt.ru/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   33) Back to Top
   Putin's Support of Medvedev's Reprimands to Ministries Shows Tandem
   Relations
   Commentary by Tatyana Stanovaya: "Reprimands for Presidential
   Inconvenience" -- taken from html version of source provided by ISP -
   Politkom.ru
   Sunday July 11, 2010 19:00:57 GMT
   reported that Natalya Timakova said yesterday that Russian prime minister
   Vladimir Putin had announced reprimands for six leading staff members of a
   number of ministries for "improper organization of work on ensuring the
   monitoring of the execution of the Russian Federation president's
   instructions." Receiving penalties were deputy minister of Energy Vladimir
   Azbukin, deputy minister of Industry and Trade Andrey Dementyev, secretary
   of state and deputy minister of Sports, Tourism and Youth Affairs Natalya
   Parshikova, deputy minister of Economic Development Olga Savelyeva, deputy
   minister of Finance Anton Siluano v, and deputy minister of Regional
   Development Sergey Yurpalov.

   The president has already posed the question of failure to execute
   instructions several times since the beginning of this year. In February
   Medvedev held a conference on investment policy, at which was heard tough
   criticism of the government because of a lack of improvement in the
   investment climate in Russia. But already in the following month, in
   March, the president caused a real blow-up for the government for failure
   to execute his instructions. At that time the president's aide Konstantin
   Chuychenko, head of the monitoring administration, came forth with a
   special report, and presented quite negative statistics on the ministries'
   and departments' failure to execute the president's instructions. Medvedev
   termed this "a systemic problem." Finally, on 21 June, at a conference on
   executing the instructions of the head of the state, the president ordered
   the preparation of a list of offic ials who violated the periods for
   executing his instructions, and the indication on it of what
   responsibility, "right up to dismissal," each of those guilty bore.
   Medvedev emphasized at that time that "failure to execute the instructions
   of the president and the government and in general the failure to execute
   instructions that were given was an emergency situation, especially when
   it was a question of executing the instructions of the head of the state."

   Vladimir Putin has also more than once criticized the government for
   inefficiency. This is a general problem of the "vertical line of
   authority": the loyalty of the bureaucracy is paid for with a reduction in
   its efficiency, an increase in secrecy, the growth of corruption, etc.
   Both Putin and Medvedev are interested in improving the situation with
   respect to preparation, coordination and decision-making as much as
   possible. The tandemocracy system, however, adds a political compone nt to
   this problem.

   No matter how "friendly" the relations between Putin and Medvedev,
   criticism of the one addressed to the other creates intrigue. In six
   months, Putin has not once reacted directly to Medvedev's criticism, and
   it has been publicly unclear: does the prime minister agree with this
   criticism or does it irritate him.

   In the end, a solution was worked out, which should minimally suit both
   participants in the tandem. First of all, Putin, having designated the
   responsibility for dragging out the periods for executing the president's
   instructions, acknowledged that Medvedev was right. This is important in
   principle. Essentially, however, the guilty parties bore only symbol ic
   responsibility. The president's words about an "emergency situation" and
   "dismissal" are in no way comparable with the way the prime minister
   reacted. The reprimands were made to the deputy ministers. They were
   entered in the personal file o f the civil servant, and on their basis,
   decisions can be made on deprivation of a bonus, the prime minister's
   press secretary Dmitriy Peskov told Vedemosti.

   At the same time, a source in the Ministry of Industry and Trade told
   Vedomosti that, for example, Dementyev was punished unjustly. The problem
   stemmed from the dragged-out time periods for coordination with other
   departments. Dementyev himself noted in a conversation with the newspaper
   that the grievances against the Ministry of Industry and Trade pertain to
   the sphere of technical regulation, but he is not responsible for this
   sphere. A source in the government also noted that the situation may heat
   up the president's circle, which feels uncomfortable because of the prime
   minister's great political weight.

   In many ways this comment is significant: it indicates the way the
   president's anger is perceived within the government. The attempts of the
   head of the state to strengthen his control over the work of the
   government looks to the officials like a manifestation of his political
   limitedness. The reaction to this anger has also been essentially
   politicized: to correct the problem there must be much more profound
   systemic changes in the work of the organs of executive authority. Putin
   will not engage in this because of the risks of weakening his political
   control, and Medvedev will not engage in this because of a lack of
   sufficient administrative levers. As a result, the problem has simply not
   been solved, even though Putin is, in turn, trying, even if formally, to
   satisfy the political needs of his successor.

   (Description of Source: Moscow Politkom.ru in Russian -- Website created
   by the independent Political Technologies Center featuring insightful
   political commentary that is sometimes critical of the government; URL:
   http://politcom.ru/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   34) Back to Top
   Czech Tatra Truck Maker Seeks To Establish Assembly Plant in Russia
   "Tatra Wants To Assemble Lorries in Russia" -- Czech Happenings headline -
   Czech Happenings
   Sunday July 11, 2010 18:04:33 GMT
   CEO Ronald Adams said in the statement the car maker plans to expand to
   markets in south-east Asia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Australia and
   India. Tatra managed to cut costs and expenditures and is succeeding in
   raising its market share and sales, which is necessary to get to the top
   again, where it belongs, Adams told shareholders in the statement.

   (Description of Source: Prague Czech Happenings in English -- Internet
   magazine with focus on polit ical and economic reporting, published by CTK
   subsidiary Neris; URL: http://www.ceskenoviny.cz)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   35) Back to Top
   Almost 50% Of All Crimes In Russia Committed In Large Cities - Official -
   ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 18:02:33 GMT
   intervention)

   MOSCOW, July 11 (Itar-Tass) -- Almost 50% of all crimes in Russia are
   committed in large cities, but the majority of victims of severe crimes
   are reported from small towns and villages, First Deputy Interior Minister
   Mikhail Sukhodolsky said."Nearly half of all crimes (41.9%) are
   perpetrated in regional and re publican centers, and a fifth (19.8%) in
   the countryside. At the same time, we are concerned about serious crimes
   committed in villages. Slightly less than 40% of murder victims are
   reported from the countryside," he said."A total of 37.8% of victims who
   sustain heavy bodily damage live in small towns and villages," he said.
   "Alcohol is the cause of many domestic crimes."Sukhodolsky recalled a
   recent meeting of the governmental commission for the prevention of
   crimes, which focused on alcoholism, and said that Moscow and some other
   regions had limited alcohol selling hours from 11:00 a.m. through 9:00
   p.m.Generally, the crime rate in Russia is improving, Sukhodolsky said.
   The crime rate declined by more than 12% in the first six months of this
   year, while the number of grave crimes went down by almost 15%. The number
   of terrorist attacks, assaults and robberies declined by about 20%, while
   the number of murders and car hijacks dropped by 15%.He is co ncerned
   about the growing street crime. "The street crime rate has grown by 1.3%,
   while the total number of thefts has declined by 7%," he said. "Two-thirds
   of street criminals are unemployed, and a fourth of them have a previous
   criminal record."(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English --
   Main government information agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   36) Back to Top
   Yantar Shipyard Building Oceanographic Vessel For Russian Defense Ministry
   - ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 18:28:46 GMT
   intervention)

   KALININGRAD, July 11 (Itar-Tass) -- The Yantar ship yard will build an
   oceanographic vessel of Project 22010 for the Russian Defense Ministry,
   shipyard press secretary Sergei Mikhailov told Itar-Tass.He said the
   construction started on July 8, the day the shipyard marked the 65th
   anniversary. The new vessel, The Yantar, will be delivered to the client
   in May 2013.The Almaz Naval Design Bureau designed the ship, which would
   have the displacement of 5,230 tonnes, the length of 108.1 meters and the
   width of 17.2 meters.The shipyard is building a research vessel for the
   Defense Ministry. The Seliger will be commissioned in June 2011, Mikhailov
   said.The shipyard based in Kaliningrad was founded on July 8, 1945. It
   builds small and medium vessels for military and civilian clients and
   repairs ships. In all, the shipyard has built 154 warships and over 500
   civilian vessels.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English --
   Main government information agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   37) Back to Top
   UVS Tech Show Said Proves Lag in Drones Sector, Solutions Suggested
   Article by Vladimir Shcherbakov: "The aviation 'lacking in the cockpit,'
   or in search for 'Mister UAV.' Why Russia keeps buying drones abroad?" -
   Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye Online
   Sunday July 11, 2010 17:26:49 GMT
   Within the framework of the new "military" exhibition -- the Tekhnologii v
   Mashinostroyenii (Engineering Technologies) forum -- which was held from
   30 June through 4 July in (the town of) Zhukovskiy, a traditional expo of
   the unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) and their payloads was organized. The
   interest which was demonstrated toward the expo by the Russian and foreign
   specialists was quite great, especially as, literally on the eve of the
   opening of the forum, the statements by the Russian and foreign high-level
   officials about acquisition by Russian of the foreign-made drones were
   made one after another.

   However, the surface gloss of the exhibitions and shows and the "Olympian"
   calmness of the Russian military and politicians covers a true "volcano"
   of passions and problems which will need to be addressed as soon as
   possible -- or else the consequences for the country's defense ability
   will turn out to be the most negative.

   Swing is worth a ruble, but blow is worth a kopek

   The wisdom of our people, which has been creating different sayings, is
   simply amazing. The saying which was used as a subheading is so many years
   old, but it still describes very accurately the situation which has taken
   shape at the Russian exhibition of drones, or th e UVS Tech, to use the
   official name.

   In the past, this event used to be organized separately, at the expo
   center in Krasnaya Presnya (district in Moscow). And it was quite
   successful too: It was very easy to get there both for the participants
   and the visitors (especially after the metro station Delovoy Tsentr was
   opened), the exhibition layout was compact, and an academic event
   (conference on the UAVs) was held next to it. And the developed
   infrastructure of the expo center made it possible to have a lunch or rest
   between the negotiations. There was only one problem: For security
   reasons, the organizers could not arrange demonstration flights of the
   drones, even of the small class, which of course made the entire event
   less spectacular.

   That is why when the Russian officials decided to organize the Tekhnologii
   v Mashinostroyenii forum at the site in the town of Zhukovskiy where the
   MAKS (Moscow Air Show) is organized, combining it under the same "ro of"
   with several other exhibitions, including the MVSV exhibition of military
   hardware for the ground troops, the organizers of the UVS Tech paid
   greater attention to the prospects of taking part in it. The main
   incentive is the possibility to show the Russian drones live at the
   demonstration ground. But that proved not to be the case....

   According to representatives of several Russian companies, the organizers
   of the forum asked for the demonstration flights of the UAVs a
   "hair-raising" sum. And this happened despite the fact that the flights of
   UAVs are not the flights of the airplanes or even helicopters: There is no
   need for the air traffic control ("towers"), and there is no need for
   fuelling with huge amounts of kerosene or other "bells and whistles"
   ("pribambasy"). There is no need for even large demonstration areas -- for
   greater visibility, the UAV must fly 150-200 meters from the audience,
   otherwise the drone will simply be "lost" in the sky. Paying several
   hundreds of thousands of rubles for one hour of this kind of action is
   downright outrageous. Only one company was able to perform a demonstration
   flight of its UAV (the author has not seen it -- I am saying what my
   colleagues told me). And the pavilion with the UAVs was organized so badly
   that the Russian-designed aerial robots, which were not exactly numerous
   anyway, were all but lost among the android hardware, publishing houses
   and other things.

   And what do we have now? Next year, the UVX Tech exhibition is moving back
   to the expo center in Krasnaya Presnya....

   "Mister UAV," where are you?!

   And now to the main thing: Why and for what purpose do we, the "great
   aviation and space power," buy drones abroad? And what do we have to do in
   this field to avoid finding ourselves in the backyard of the empire of the
   airborne robots.

   It seems that the main problem of Rus sia in the field of development of
   the UAV segment of the aviation sector is that, despite all the
   instructions from higher up and hints from lower down, the methods of ways
   of employment of the vehicles of this class in the interests of the
   military have still not been determined (hence the inability of the
   Defense Ministry to develop comprehensible technical design specifications
   for the UAVs of different classes and purposes), and the main directions
   of the entire drone segment in general and individual technological and
   technical directions in particular are also unclear.

   As early as last year, Air Force Chief Commander Colonel General Aleksandr
   Zelin said that the Air Force command would not take into service any of
   the drones which are offered by the Russian developers.

   "We have not received either speed or high precision and resolution, which
   is why we have what we have at present," Aleksandr Zelin said. "Taking
   into service these kinds o f drones is simply a crime."

   Just recently, already this year, Russian First Deputy Defense Minister
   Vladimir Popovkin effectively repeated the Air Force chief commander's
   words and said that none of the Russian UAVs meets the requirements of the
   Defense Ministry. The Pchela and Tipchak UAVs were also criticized.

   However, no one wants to make clear for some reason that the Tipchak UAV
   was created in exact conformity with the technical design specifications
   which were issued almost 20 years ago! What is to criticize here? If we
   wanted a steam engine, we received a steam engine, not a modern high-speed
   electric train. Change the specifications and get a product which meets
   them, and if the designer cannot create a modern product -- why then,
   literally "puffing and straining," allocate billion after billion to it?
   And how much has already been allocated, after all? The same Vladimir
   Popovkin mentioned three figures over the period of one year: One, seven
   and finally, five billion rubles! The Defense Ministry does not even have
   the information on exactly how much money was spent on the UAVs?

   But just a few years ago, Vladimir Mikhaylov, now already former Air Force
   chief commander, assured the Russian public that there was no need at all
   to worry about our country's lagging behind in the field of UAV
   development -- that presumably, the command was already issued to study
   the international best practices, and we would therefore quickly "catch up
   with them without making their mistakes." But we were either unable to
   appreciate the foreign experience because we speak no foreign languages
   ("zarubezhnaya mova" -- Ukrainian for "language" is used) or made the same
   mistakes as foreigners had made and added our own ones in addition. And
   then other representatives of the Air Force said that they "cannot see a
   place" in the battle ranks of the Russian aviation for the craft like the
   combat UAVs.

   On the other hand, the Russian military and developer companies were let
   down by their insolent attitude toward the drones: "If we can develop a
   missile or a fifth-generation fighter aircraft, we can build some tiny
   robots easily. We will only see what is going on abroad and do it right
   away." However, experience shows that the aerial robots are not so simple,
   and if we can more or less han dle the aerodynamics and design the air
   frames, we clearly fail at creating a purposeful payload for the UAVs
   within the acceptable weight and dimensional indicators and at integrating
   the payload and communications and command and control systems into the
   UAVS.

   "It is quite difficult to bridge a technological gap," Denis Fedutinov,
   chief editor of the UAV.RU specialized portal, said. "The development has
   to be of a consistent and systemic nature. It is impossible to make a
   biplane yesterday and the latest fighter jet toda y."

   During the Tekhnologii v Mashinostroyenii exhibition, the author of this
   article had quite an instructive conversation with specialists from one of
   the currently numerous US research centers which work on the issues of the
   strategy of development of the armed forces and armaments and military
   hardware in different countries of the world (when it comes to the latter
   (the military hardware), they specifically focus on modern high-tech
   models). Of course, the main "bugbear" for Washington is the growing
   "eastern dragon," China, but they pay greater attention to other countries
   which might be their potential opponents too. That is why they arrived in
   Zhukovskiy: To see the Russian machine building technologies.

   After the conversation with Americans, I had a strong impression that they
   were quite glad: The level of the Russian technologies in machine building
   and defense sector turned out to be so low that they realized -- there is
   n o need to fear us for now. The same was said about the Russian drones
   too: With rare exceptions like the unmanned aerial vehicles by the Tranzas
   company or the dummy models of the new unmanned helicopters by Kamov,
   which were on show at the stand of the Vertolety Rossii, they found
   nothing that would be of interest for them.

   However, even this is not the most important thing. Citing the experience
   of the world's leading countries in the field of development of the
   fundamentally new high-tech models of armaments and military hardware,
   which were often ahead of their time, Americans stressed: To promote some
   global idea in the country, which is capable of having considerable effect
   on the overall pace of the scientific and technological progress in state
   -- and the unmanned aviation field clearly belongs to this category --
   there always had to be at least one ideologue, a person who was capable of
   setting the wheels of the bureaucratic system into motion and impress the
   idea of vital necessity of creation of precisely this model of armament or
   hardware into the minds of the country's leaders, command of the armed
   forces and the public in general. For example, Admiral Hyman Rickover was
   the "pusher" of this sort of the US program of building nuclear powered
   shipbuilding, and he has been referred to as nothing else but the "father
   of the US nuclear-powered fleet" for a long time now.

   Americans asked me: "And do you have Mister UAV?"

   To be honest, I thought about the answer for a long time, but never
   figured out what to tell them -- we do not have a "Mister UAV." And this
   is the main problem! For now, we only have people who are mostly
   interested in "sharing out" the budget money and pushing their products,
   not always high-quality, to the state customer.

   Time to loosen purse-strings

   In recent years, the Russian developers of drones, particularly of the
   helic opter-type drones, frequently and with poorly disguised admiration
   "nod towards" the Austrian company Schiebel, which over a relative brief
   period of time designed the Camcopter S-100 unmanned helicopter, entered
   the market and organized its delivery to the customers, the armed forces,
   in large enough qualities for this type of the UAV. The demonstration
   which the company organized during the last year's aerospace show in Paris
   was particularly impressive: It was the first time an unmanned aerial
   vehicle had taken part in the demonstration program at that show!

   However, few people know that the Camcopter UAV was designed using only
   the company's own funds and research and technological potential -- and it
   only took two years, from 2003 to 2005, which is an example to follow for
   the majority of the Russian developers of the UAVs and proves that in
   principle, "there is nothing impossible for a man with intellect."

   It is even more instructive that before starting the Camcopter project,
   the company had quite a modest experience in the field of unmanned aerial
   vehicles. Founded in 1951, it was manufacturing electronic components for
   different types of appliances, including washing machines, for a long
   time, started to develop and serially manufacture mine detectors and metal
   detectors in the mid-1980s, quickly became one of the world leaders in
   this field (especially after the US Army placed its order for a batch of
   18,000 mine detectors in the 1980s with the company), and started to
   gradually enter the market of unmanned aircraft only in the 1990s.

   The Schiebel company had no multimillion-dollar subsidies and virtually no
   state support which the Russian developers demand so intensely. And yet,
   it managed -- thanks to the selfless work of its staffers, all of them,
   "young and old" -- to become and undisputed leader in the field of
   helicopter-type UAVs. Incidentally, by the time when the S-100 U AV
   entered the market, the number of the company's employees was only 150,
   and its annual revenues were under 10 million euro (about 380 million
   rubles). Compare this with the expenses and budget spending which we see
   in Russia!

   Generally speaking, in Russia only the St Petersburg-based Tranzas and
   Radar MMS companies invest their own funds in large amount into the
   development of the UAVs which can be of at least some interest for the
   Russian Defense Ministry, and to some extent, Moscow-based helicopter
   design bureaus which are today under the Vertolety Rossii OAO's (Open
   Joint Stock Company) control do too, although the real models, of iron and
   composite materials, are produced today only by the former two companies.
   All other developers either create the UAVs of the small class, which do
   not require large financial investments -- and Russia is doing more or
   less well in the field of small UAVs -- or, like the Vega concern, receive
   quite large amounts of money from state but come up with products which do
   not satisfy the military. Yet another developer which invests its own
   funds in the development of UAVs is the Irkut NPK (Research and Production
   Corporation), but it works not on the military-purpose, but on the
   civilian UAV projects (for the MChS (Ministry for Affairs of Civil
   Defense, Emergency Situations, and Elimination of Natural Disasters), fuel
   and energy complex and so on).

   "It seems to me that the Russian companies must finally start bearing some
   of the expenses on the scientific research and experimental development
   themselves, without awaiting assistance from state," Denis Fedutinov said
   with certainty. "They must offer customers not just pictures and models,
   but something 'in iron,' in other words, something that can be quickly
   brought to the final stage of development, fined tuned to the customer's
   specific requests, if there is appropriate additional funding."

   However, state too could do its best in this field: For example, to shunt
   the millions which were spent on organizing the exhibition of the
   ground-based armaments and military hardware in Zhukovskiy, which in a
   large scheme of things is not so necessary today -- we have enough of
   these types of exhibitions already -- to the same UAV development field,
   if only to formulate a comprehensible concept of development of this
   segment of the armaments and military hardware.... The Russian industry
   offers a wide range of not very much needed drones. Photo by Viktor
   Myasnikov.

   What is to be done?

   The title of Chernyshevskiy's book ("What is to be done?) is as relevant
   as ever in our case. Indeed, what is to be done for the Russian Army to
   receive a sufficient number of drones of different classes and types,
   which would be able to considerably enhance the combat readiness of the
   troops and effectiveness of their employment as intended?

   It seems that the first thing which needs to b e done in Russia is
   development of a concept of development and combat employment of the
   unmanned aerial systems of different purposes. This must be done by the
   main customer of the UAVs, the Defense Ministry. If the Defense Ministry
   itself, the General Staff and specialized scientific research institutes
   no longer have specialists who would be able to soberly assess the Russian
   Armed Forces' demand for the UAVs, analyze the current situation in this
   field and experience of combat employment of the UAVs abroad, and then
   develop a blueprint which would be adapted to the national conditions and
   requirements, then independent experts must be invited, a working group
   must be created, which will include, besides the military and
   representatives of the industry, the specialists who do not depend on
   corruption factor and are not interested in promoting their product. There
   are such people in Russia. And finally, sort out the issue once and for
   all what UAVs and for what purpose s you, Comrade Generals, need.

   Because for now, the Defense Ministry has finally managed to hold some
   tender to select a UAV for the purposes of surveillance and target
   designation this summer. Questions arise right away: What kind of
   surveillance? Target designation for what, whom and in what volume? They
   say that all this is classified. This is an utter nonsense -- if you
   direct attention to the foreign countries, concepts are not classified
   there -- so just look, read and, if you can, learn. And the methods and
   ways of employment and specific tactical and technical performance
   characteristics are indeed classified there.

   Incidentally, the very problem of lack of funding for the development of
   the UAVs stems in large part from insufficient attention which the Russian
   Defense Ministry pays to this issue. And this is the case in the entire
   field of the "military robotization," as most of our generals still rely
   on masses of men and tanks.
   And this happens despite the fact that the unconditional trend of the last
   10-20 years in the military field is the gradual robotization of war, and
   the remote controlled or automatically controlled models of the military
   hardware are assigned increasingly complex task, and the command of the
   world's most powerful army, the US one, is already seriously considering
   the possibility of creation in the foreseeable future of unmanned
   strategic bombers which will carry nuclear weapons.

   However, the flying robots carrying nuclear bombs and strategic cruise
   missiles remain for now in the realm of sci-fi writers and Pentagon
   strategists, but the numerous drones, from tactical to strategic, which
   really take part in combat operations is the reality of our times.
   Possessing broad capabilities, the modern-day UAVs are already capable of
   playing a more important role in carrying out highly important missions,
   compared to the craft of 20 or 25 years ago. Achieving information s
   uperiority, carrying out round-the-clock reconnaissance practically to the
   entire depth of the enemy's defenses, carrying out operations with high
   level of effectiveness against the solitary and area group targets in
   populated areas and residential blocks of the cities, and independent --
   in fully automatic mode -- delivery of pinpoint strikes using high
   precision weapons -- these are just some of the areas of employment of the
   UAVs in modern warfare.

   This is true for other types of combat robots too -- one visit to, for
   example, the Eurosatory land weapons show or the Euronaval naval weapons
   show to see this. The robots with shoulder straps (as published) are
   gradually sidelining people in the battle arrays, which seems to be a
   strategically correct solution.

   After developing the blueprint of development of the UAVs, the Russian
   Defense Ministry would also have to come up with modern technical design
   specifications too for individual craft which would occupy specific niches
   in the blueprint and be "fine-tuned" to carry out specific missions.
   Because we are not "grown up" enough to have strategic high-altitude UAVs
   of the Global Hawk type and because in principle, we are doing not so
   badly in the field of small-class UAVs, the main efforts have to focus on
   development of programs of creation of tactical and operational-tactical
   drones. And for the UAVs of these dimensions, budget funds will inevitably
   be required, which has always been a problem in Russia.

   "The entire world is spending billions of dollars in the UAV sector, and
   in Russia, millions of rubles are spent on this sector at best," Georgiy
   Antsev, head of the Radar MMS OAO, one of the leading Russian developers
   of high-precision weapons, noted. "It seems that state decided to withdraw
   itself from this field, and the unmanned aviation sector develops thanks
   only to the enthusiasts' efforts for now."

   However, as we have already pointed out above, the enterprises must
   themselves invest into this field. And a relatively unconventional
   solution can be found here: Promoting individual systems for export sales
   as supplements to other models of armaments and military hardware which
   are in demand.

   "The enterprises must consider not only the domestic market, but also the
   international one," Denis Fedutinov, leading independent expert in the
   field of unmanned aviation hardware, maintains. "The drones are part of
   reconnaissance systems, and in that capacity, they can be successfully
   promoted by Rosoboroneksport to the countries which are Russia's
   traditional partners in the field of military-technical cooperation."

   For example, the Kazan-based company Eniks has developed -- and quite a
   few years ago too -- a UAV for adjustment of fire of the Smerch
   multiple-launch rocket-propelled missile system. The small-sized T-90 UAV
   was designed for surveillance of the area, operational search and
   detection of the ground-based objects which can be targets for the missile
   systems, ascertainment of the meteorological conditions in the target
   area, and provision of data for target designation to employ the weapon
   system. The UAV itself fits into a special container and is launched using
   the standard 300-mm 9M534 (9M61) rocket-propelled projectile of the Smerch
   system. The test results showed that there is a possibility to
   considerably improve the accuracy of the missile system if the UAV is
   employed at the ranges of up to 70 kilometers and reduce the ammunition
   use. Today, the Smerch missile system enjoys steady demand in the
   international arms market, however, the T-90 UAV is seldom on offered with
   it, not to mention actual deliveries.

   If, however, it emerges that after all, the Russian developers are
   incapable of developing even rough approximations of foreign models, then
   it will be necessary to contact the developers abroad to o rganize
   licensed production of the required craft in Russia, which will make it
   possible to arm the Army, save the budget money and boost the technical
   and technological level of our industry. But this must be done on the
   basis of open tenders -- which will be open to the public too -- forcing
   the foreign manufacturers to fight tooth and nail to achieve the coveted
   victory. In other words, we need to do this in the same way as the
   military of India or China do, who "suck out" the latest novelties in the
   field of armaments and military hardware from foreign manufacturers. And
   what the basis was for the decisions to sign a deal with Israelis to buy
   the UAVs worth about $50 million or an agreement to build a joint venture
   with them in Russia worth already $300 million remains unclear to this
   day. And this makes us assume that there was some "interest" among certain
   circles and individuals.

   And finally, the most important thing: There is a need to find "Mister
   UAV," who will be respected by both the military and the industry. But it
   must not be a "young effective manager" -- it is fashionable these days to
   entrust different projects to these types of people, and the projects
   remain unimplemented while the money flows out of the treasury in swollen
   streams; instead, it must be a specialist who really cares about the
   unmanned systems. It is quite possible that such person should be invited
   not from the Defense Ministry or developer companies, but from third-party
   organizations. Otherwise, we shall be fleeing after the next 22 June (22
   June 1941, when the German troops crossed Soviet borders) again....

   Published in Nezavisimaya Gazeta-Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye issue
   dated 9 July 2010.

   Original:

   http://nvo.ng.ru/armament/2010-07-09/8--bpa.html
   http://nvo.ng.ru/armament/2010-07-09/8--bpa.html

   (Description of Source: Moscow Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye Online in
   Russian -- Website of weekly military newspaper published by Remchukov's
   Nezavisimaya Gazeta; URL: http://nvo.ng.ru/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   38) Back to Top
   Russia Opens 2,000 Criminal Cases Over Breach Of Smoking Mixtures Ban -
   ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 17:26:19 GMT
   intervention)

   MOSCOW, July 11 (Itar-Tass) -- Over 2,000 criminal cases have been opened
   in Russia in less than six months over the breach of a ban on smoking
   mixtures, a source at the Russian Prosecutor General's Office told
   Itar-Tass.The government resolution adding smoking mixtures to the list of
   narcoti c drugs, psychotropic substances and their precursors entered into
   force on January 22, 2010. Prosecutors, the Interior Ministry, the Federal
   Customs Service and the Federal Drug Control Service exposed 2,156 cases
   of transportation and distribution of the outlawed products.Some 435
   people were detained, including 43 in the Central Federal District, 188 in
   the Volga Federal District, 59 in the Urals Federal District, 64 in the
   Southern Federal District, ten in the North Caucasian Federal District, 31
   in the Northwestern Federal District, 36 in the Siberian Federal District,
   and four in the Far Eastern Federal District. Three hundred and fifty
   suspects were taken into custody.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS
   in English -- Main government information agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   39) Back to Top
   About 30 States Confirm Participation In Defense And Security 2010 Show -
   ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 16:48:06 GMT
   intervention)

   YEKATERINBURG, July 11 (Itar-Tass) -- About 30 countries have confirmed
   their participation in the Defense and Security 2010 show in Nizhny Tagil
   scheduled for July 14-17, Valentin Sokolovskikh from the Sverdlovsk
   regional ministry of international and foreign economic relations said.Two
   hundred and five exhibitors from Russia and other countries will display
   their products at the show.Paratroopers, police dog handlers and
   specialists of the Emergency Situations Ministry will present techniques
   of fire fighting, liberation of hostages, hand-to-hand combat and
   operation of modern rescue machinery.Visitors will see over 2,500 types of
   rescue and specialized machinery, equipment of military and civilian
   medical teams, anti-terrorist equipment, modern communication, information
   security and civil defense gadgets.The show will coincide with INNOPROM
   2010. The show of innovative projects will take place in Yekaterinburg on
   July 15-19.The show will take place with support of the federal
   government. About 30 large contracts may be signed.The organizers expect
   debates on innovations in Russia. The discussions by experts and
   representatives of large companies will start from the Russian strategy of
   a technological breakthrough. The delegates will identify obstacles on the
   way of Russia's innovative development and measures, which may build up
   the efficiency of the modernization policy.Reports on innovations in the
   fuel and energy sector, metallurgy, medicine and some other spheres will
   be made on the second day of the forum.The two events must not impede one
   another, Sverdlovsk regional industry mi nister Alexander Petrov said. He
   proposed to hold joint roundtables. Defense and Security is a biannual
   event held in Nizhny Tagil.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in
   English -- Main government information agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   40) Back to Top
   Moscow Weathermen Issue Storm Warning - ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 16:53:08 GMT
   intervention)

   MOSCOW, July 11 (Itar-Tass) -- The Moscow hydro-meteorological service has
   issued a storm warning."There may be short thunderstorms and wind of up to
   12-17 meters per second before 9:00 p.m. Air temperatures will vary f rom
   25 to 30 degrees Centigrade," a service representative told
   Itar-Tass.There were scattered showers in the Moscow region on Saturday.
   Precipitation was the biggest, 27 millimeters, in Mozhaisk. There was no
   rain at all within the Moscow city limits.(Description of Source: Moscow
   ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   41) Back to Top
   Vologda Oblast Military Unit Conscripts Have Not Been Paid Since January
   Article by military commentator Vyacheslav Ismailov: "The Army and
   Poverty" - Novaya Gazeta Online
   Sunday July 11, 2010 16:21:22 GMT
   The soldiers complain that at the end of June they are to be discharged
   from the Army, but they have not received their monetary allowance since
   January. Moreover, the letter says: "We appealed to the courts and won our
   case, but no measures were taken."

   The gist of the matter is: For six months the servicemen of our Russian
   military unit have been living, serving, and working without receiving
   money

   I call the General Staff Organizational and Mobilizational Directorate --
   it is responsible for army conscription, and is even discussing in the
   Federal Assembly the question of extending the draft until August and
   increasing the call-up age to 30 years. That is to say, the situation with
   the draft is such that we do not have enough kids aged between 18 and 27,
   and if guys aged 30 join the Army, that will be just perfect.

   "It is not a question for us," I am told in the General Staff Main
   Organizational and Mobilizational D irectorate. "Our task is to conscript
   people into the Armed Forces."

   It is like in the Arkadiy Raykin (Soviet-era stand-up comedian) joke: The
   client has an ugly jacket, but there is no one to answer to him for it: "I
   personally am responsible for buttons. Do you have any complaints against
   the buttons?" "No. They are sewn on very tight."

   I phone the Defense Ministry press service. The person on duty invites me
   to redial to the Main Directorate of Educational Work. I phone there. They
   tell me: "We do not handle this."

   I ask: "Who is your chief?" The reply: "We do not give out the names of
   officials on the telephone." That's a good one! Our entire press, and
   indeed, the agents of the world's intelligence services, know for certain
   that for several months now the duties of chief of this directorate have
   been fulfilled by Major General Yuriy Dashkin. Keep your secrets after
   that.

   I phone Zap olye postal department, which is in Vologda Oblast's
   Babayevskiy Rayon. The local employee keeps no secrets from me: "We do
   have a military unit no.87256, but you will not be able to phone there,
   the unit has been completely cut off for nonpayment of telephone services.
   And the soldiers have indeed not been paid for six months."

   The mail worker (the world is not without good people) gives me the mobile
   telephone number of one of the servicemen. The latter confirms: Conscripts
   were indeed discharged at the end of June, without having received a
   kopeck for the past six months, and officers are receiving only part of
   their monetary allowance.

   All the officers whom I contacted one after the other confirmed:
   Discharged conscripted servicemen have simply not been paid their monetary
   allowance, and officers are receiving at best only half their monetary
   allowance. They went to court. They won their case, but nothing has
   changed.

   Officers scraped toget her from their own empty pockets money for travel
   and food for the discharged soldiers.

   I do not give the names of the officers with whom I spoke so as not to get
   them into trouble. As though things were not bad enough already...

   (Description of Source: Moscow Novaya Gazeta Online in Russian -- Website
   of Independent thrice-weekly paper that specializes in exposes and often
   criticizes the Kremlin; Mikhail Gorbachev and Aleksandr Lebedev are
   minority owners; URL: http://www.novayagazeta.ru/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   42) Back to Top
   Kyrgyzstan May Allow Second Russian Military Base
   Report by Grigoriy Mikhaylov and Viktoriya Panfilova, under the rubric "C
   IS": "Kyrgyzstan Is Using Russia as a Shield" - Nezavisimaya Gazeta Online
   Sunday July 11, 2010 15:28:26 GMT
   Kyrgyzstan is ready to locate another Russian military base in its
   territory. This was announced Thursday by the republic's acting minister
   of foreign affairs Ruslan Kazakbayev. There was talk of another Russian
   site in the republic last year. After the coup d'etat that occurred on 7
   April, this question was taken off the agenda. Experts believe that
   Bishkek brought the subject back to life in order to even out the ratio of
   military forces in the republic's territory.

   Ruslan Kazakbayev said yesterday that "the question of locating a second
   Russian military base in Kyrgyzstan remains timely." It is true that at
   the same time he noted that "no official talks on this matter are being
   conducted."

   The first report that Russian and Kyrgyz military officials were holding
   very concrete negotiations on the possible appearance of a second Russia
   base in the republic was made by NG (Nezavisimaya Gazeta) exactly one year
   ago, on 9 July 2009, in the article entitled "Serdyukov Is Trying To Get a
   New Base in Kyrgyzstan." It seemed that stationing Russian military forces
   in the unsettled South of the country would be a mutually advantageous
   step -- on the one hand, the base could help Kyrgyzstan stabilize the
   situation in the region, while on the other it would restore relations
   with the Kremlin, which had been damaged following the affair with the
   American Manas base (it is common knowledge that the republic authorities
   first tried to convince Moscow that the base would be evacuated, but then
   it came out that it remained in the republic all the same, with a change
   of names).

   A little later, at the end of July, at a meeting in Kyrgyzstan Dmitriy
   Medvedev and then Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bak iyev, after officially
   discussing the topic of the Russian base, decided that it should appear in
   2-3 months. It was contemplated that "the Russian military contingent will
   comprise a military formation up to battalion size and a training center
   to train Kyrgyz and Russian servicemen."

   It remained to clear up minor formalities. But the base did not appear. By
   fall relations between Kyrgyzstan and Russia began worsening rapidly and
   the politicians were no longer concerned about bases. They returned to
   this subject already after the change of government in Krygyzstan, when
   Bakiyev, who had completely broken with Moscow, was overthrown by the
   popular masses (or by mobs of looters -- there are different points of
   view on the April events).

   The June events in Osh showed that the warnings, which had been heard
   hundreds of times, about the possibility of serious conflict arising in
   southern Kyrgyzstan were absolutely correct. The new Kyrgyz authorities
   have taken the situation in Osh under control today, but most analysts
   believe that this is far from the end. After a time the South may go up in
   flames again. In this context it becomes difficult to say how long the
   Russian base could actually help stabilize the situation. A battalion of
   Russian troops is clearly inadequate for a substantial influence on it.
   And their legal status is unclear.

   It can be asserted unequivocally that if the Russian base had already been
   functioning in Osh at the time when the June butchery began, thousands of
   refugees would have streamed right there in hopes of protection and help.
   There is also no doubt that the servicemen, defending women and children,
   would have had to use their firearms in earnest. Anyone can figure the
   results -- from the respect and gratitude of local residents and hundreds
   of lives saved to an intensification of the "anti-occupation" rhetoric and
   regular provocations.

   The current attempt of the Kyrgyz authorities to go back to discussion of
   the "base topic" is most likely not motivated solely by a desire to
   somehow save the residents of the South from possible clashes. A more
   likely motive in this case can be considered a desire to please Moscow.
   How long Roza Otumbayeva will hold the office of president depends
   specifically on whether she fulfills the promises made by Bakiyev in the
   near future.

   There is one more theory of why the idea was not realized. As NG has
   learned, the stumbling block in negotiations on building the new base was
   its location. Bishkek proposed that the military site be built on the
   territory of Batken Oblast, which borders on Uzbekistan and already has a
   certain infrastructure for this purpose. Tashkent reacted negatively to
   the proposal. The country's leaders considered that building an additional
   base on the territory of a neighboring state could lead to the activation
   of extremists and worsening of interethnic c onflicts. Moscow at that time
   was examining the Osh variant, where there is infrastructure, a training
   ground, and an airport.

   However, a client for Batken was found. The United States announced its
   intention to locate a military training center there. Washington was
   prepared to invest about $5.5 million in building it. In March 2010 the
   press service of the US Embassy in Bishkek reported that it was planned to
   begin construction of the center soon, even though no documents had been
   signed at that moment. The April events in Bishkek disrupted the plans of
   the Americans as well as the Russians. The implementation of both projects
   had to be postponed.

   Experts do not rule out the possibility that with the arrival of a new
   government the questions of building military sites have been revived.
   This fact is indirectly confirmed by the statement of Nikolay Bordyuzhi,
   general secretary of the ODKB (Collective Security Treaty Organization),
   who said on 1 June that after the referendum in Kyrgyzstan it became
   possible to return to the question of building a unified Russian military
   base. However, military expert Aleksandr Khramchikhin remarked that Russia
   is in a hurry to stake out the place: "Even though Russia hardly has the
   actual forces to occupy this place. The main thing is to show that we can.
   If the forces turn up, we will occupy this place."

   Bishkek also has an interest in broadening the Russian military presence.
   Toktayym Umetaliyeva, director of the Association of NPOs
   (science-production associations) and NKOs (non-state commercial
   organizations), told NG that, because it is not impossible that behind
   closed doors an agreement has already been reached to station US forces on
   Kyrgyz territory. "The proposal made by Russia is nothing else but a way
   to achieve a balance of Russian and US military forces in the region --
   Bishkek is making equally significant offers to the two powers at the same
   time, " Umetaliyeva believes.

   Other objectives are also being pursued. Specifically, the most vulnerable
   border for various kinds of extremists to penetrate is in Batken Oblast.
   In the expert's opinion, the provisional government would like to cover
   this sector of the border with allies as a shield.

   (Description of Source: Moscow Nezavisimaya Gazeta Online in Russian --
   Website of daily Moscow newspaper featuring varied independent political
   viewpoints and criticism of the government; owned and edited by
   businessman Remchukov; URL: http://www.ng.ru/)

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   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   43) Back to Top
   Local leader denies rights activists in danger in Chechnya - Interfax
   Sunday July 11, 2010 15:18:21 GMT
   Excerpt from report by corporate-owned Russian news agency
   InterfaxGroznyy, 11 July: Nobody and nothing threaten human rights
   activists in Chechnya, Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov has said."I am
   perplexed by systematic statements by some human rights organizations
   about an alleged threat to the lives of their representatives in Chechnya.
   This is an artificial problem. Nobody in Chechnya has threatened or
   threatens them," Kadyrov told Interfax in Groznyy today.Speaking about the
   Memorial human rights centre, he said that "nobody in the republic has
   ever dreamt about obstructing its activities". "We are surprised by the
   constant talk about plans to suspend its activities and close the offices.
   It would be better for the organization and Chechen residents if they
   spend more time attending to their direct duties," the Cheche n president
   said."There are no untouchable subjects or problems in the republic. There
   are no issues which somebody is not allowed to raise or discuss. The
   authorities are ready for cooperation and dialogue with members of civil
   society. This dialogue exists and produces tangible results. New
   organizations can join it as well," Kadyrov said.Asked about the trial
   against Oleg Orlov (head of the Memorial centre - Interfax), the Chechen
   president said that he "had recalled the lawsuit earlier this year". "I
   haven't filed any new lawsuit. Reports that the charges are based on a
   different lawsuit are not true," Kadyrov said.He said the republic's
   authorities "have made great efforts to create and develop civil society,
   which did not exist in Ichkeria (Chechnya) before." "There are many quite
   well known human rights organizations in the republic. Their offices are
   situated in the very centre of the city. There are offices in the distric
   ts. I regularly meet NGO leaders. Their work is covered by the local
   media. And we will not allow anybody to obstruct the activities of human
   rights activists", Kadyrov said. (passage omitted)"I can say with full
   responsibility that there is no danger in Chechnya for human rights
   activists. Dozens of NGOs are working here. Their staff daily collects for
   the media and foreign centres information about everything that is
   happening in Chechnya," Kadyrov said.However, according to the Chechen
   president, "some human rights organizations see their task in sifting
   through every word day and night, completely distorting statements and
   giving them the opposite meaning."(Description of Source: Moscow Interfax
   in Russian -- Nonofficial information agency known for its extensive and
   detailed reporting on domestic and international issues)

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   44) Back to Top
   US Interested In Spy Swap For Getting Back Four People - Holder - 2 -
   ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 15:49:36 GMT
   intervention)

   WASHINGTON DC, July 11 (Itar-Tass) -- U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder
   defended the decision to allow ten suspected spies to return to Russia in
   exchange for the release of four Russian prisoners accused of spying for
   the West in CBS Face the Nation program on Sunday.That was because the
   swap presented "an opportunity to get back ... four people in whom we have
   a great deal of interest," he said.Holder also sought to erase concern
   over the fate of the children of the Russian agents, saying they all were
   allowed to return to Russia "consistent with their parents wishes" or, in
   the case of those who were adults or nearly adults, were allowed to make
   their own choices of where to live, CBS said."The children have all been
   handled, I think, in an appropriate way," Holder said.According to CBS,
   the seven offspring embroiled in the spy saga ranged in age from a
   one-year-old to a 38-year-old architect. In most cases they were born and
   grew up in the United States, making them U.S. citizens.(Description of
   Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   45) Back to Top
   ISS Crew Welcomes Guests Of Open-air Rock Festival In Tver Reg ion -
   ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 15:39:31 GMT
   intervention)

   BOLSHOYE ZAVIDOVO, Tver region, July 11 (Itar-Tass) -- The crew of the
   International Space Station (ISS) welcomed participants and guests of the
   Nashestviye open-air rock festival in the Konakovo district of the Tver
   region late on Saturday night.ISS crew commander Alexander Skvortsov
   greeted the festival, and flight engineer Alexander Korniyenko wished
   musicians to play quality music. "Russia, Forward!" the Russian astronauts
   chanted together, causing the festival's cheers and applause.Some 150,000
   people have attended the festival, which will end on Sunday night.The
   police said that no major incidents had occurred over the festival's two
   days. Forty-nine administrative misdeeds were reported on the second day,
   and 342 people asked for medical aid, including 40 with heat strokes and
   33 with sunburns.The fi rst rock festival in Russia took place at a
   hippodrome in Ramenskoye, near Moscow, in 2000. That festival had 60,000
   viewers. Later on, the festival moved to the bank of the Volga River near
   Tver. Last year's Nashestviye took place in the Konakovo district, on an
   area of 120 hectares. The place is twelve kilometers away from the Moscow
   - St. Petersburg federal road.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in
   English -- Main government information agency)

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   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   46) Back to Top
   Moscow Plays Host To 34Th World Diamond Congress - ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 15:28:26 GMT
   intervention)

   MOSCOW, July 11 (Itar-Tass) -- The 34th World Diamond Congress opened in
   Moscow on Sunday.The forum is organized by the World Federation of the
   Diamond Bourses (WFDB) and the International Diamond Manufacturers
   Association (IDMA). The Russian Diamond Chamber and the Association of
   Russian Diamond Manufacturers play host to the event.The main goal of the
   congress is to find solutions to the hottest issues of the diamond
   business and to determine the further sectoral strategy.It was decided at
   the 33rd World Diamond Congress in Shanghai in 2008 that Moscow would be
   the venue of the next forum. The congress will take place from July 11
   through July 13, at the Ritz Carlton Hotel in downtown Moscow.The congress
   includes WFDB and IDMA working sessions and joint WFDB/IDMA plenary
   sessions attended also by Russian and foreign diamond manufacturers,
   scientific and research organizations and non-governmental organizations
   of the diamond and jewelry business.The world diamond output dropped to a
   critical level, by approximately 30%, last year because of the financial
   and economic crisis. The leading diamond supplier, De Beers, cut the
   diamond mining by 49% but retained leading positions by the diamond
   value.Meanwhile, Russia's ALROSA stopped selling diamonds on the world
   market in the first half of 2009 due to management mistakes. The company
   survived thanks to the state support and the selling of diamonds to the
   Gokhran state repository.In the opinion of experts, the diamond market
   needs no less than two years to recover.(Description of Source: Moscow
   ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)

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   Commerce.

   47) Back to Top
   Over 150,000 Attend Open-air Rock Festival In Tver Region - ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 13:58:41 GMT
   intervention)

   BOLSHOYE ZAVIDOVO, Tver region, July 11 (Itar-Tass) -- Some 150,000 people
   have attended the Nashestviye open-air rock festival in the Konakovo
   district of the Tver region.The police said that no major incidents had
   occurred over the festival's two days. Forty-nine administrative misdeeds
   were reported on the second day, and 342 people asked for medical aid,
   including 40 with heat strokes and 33 with sunburns.The first rock
   festival in Russia took place at a hippodrome in Ramenskoye, near Moscow,
   in 2000. That festival had 60,000 viewers. Later on, the festival moved to
   the bank of the Volga River near Tver. Last year's Nashestviye took place
   in the Konakovo district, on an area of 120 hectares. The place is twelve
   kilometers away from the Mo scow - St. Petersburg federal
   road.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main
   government information agency)

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   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   48) Back to Top
   Criminal Case Opened Over Railroad Track Explosion In Dagestan - ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 14:24:54 GMT
   intervention)

   MOSCOW, July 11 (Itar-Tass) -- A criminal case has been opened over the
   railroad track explosion in Dagestan. Damage to vehicles and transport
   routes and illegal making of a bomb are the charges, a source at the
   Makhachkala transport police department told Itar-Tass.The explosion,
   which occurre d under a freight train at 4:15 a.m. Moscow time, derailed a
   locomotive and 16 train cars. Twelve train cars capsized. "No one was
   hurt. The cars were carrying grain," the source said.Two passenger trains
   and four freight trains were suspended, he said.The damaged railroad track
   is being repaired, a source in the North Caucasian railroad administration
   told Itar-Tass."Forensic experts have ended their work and permitted to
   start the repairs of the Achi-Izberbash railroad line. More than 100
   workers and five repair trains are cleaning up the damage," he said.It is
   necessary to restore a contact wire support and 250 meters of the track
   and to take away the locomotive and train cars.There have been 17
   explosions on the railroad since July 2, 2009, including ten this year.
   The Achi-Izberbash line had an explosion on July 2, which detailed twelve
   train cars and injured the locomotive driver and his
   assistant.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main
   government information agency)

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   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   49) Back to Top
   US Interested In Spy Swap For Getting Back Four People - Holder -
   ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 14:56:09 GMT
   intervention)

   WASHINGTON DC, July 11 (Itar-Tass) -- U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder
   defended the decision to allow ten suspected spies to return to Russia in
   exchange for the release of four Russian prisoners accused of spying for
   the West in CBS Face the Nation program on Sunday.That was because the
   swap presented "an opportunity to get back ... four people in whom we have
   a great dea l of interest," he said.(Description of Source: Moscow
   ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   50) Back to Top
   Army prosecutors in Russian Urals launch probe into bullying claims - Ekho
   Moskvy Radio
   Sunday July 11, 2010 14:18:52 GMT
   claims

   Text of report by Gazprom-owned, editorially independent Russian radio
   station Ekho Moskvy on 11 July(Presenter) The military prosecutor's office
   has launched a criminal case in connection with the bullying of soldiers
   in Yekaterinburg, Radio Liberty reports. According to some reports, a
   compan y commander was beating soldiers up right on the parade ground. The
   mother of one conscript was forced to extricate her son and two of his
   fellow soldiers from the unit. The unit is number 61423, the victims have
   not been named.Information on soldiers being beaten up needs to be checked
   thoroughly, Marina Lebedeva, the head of Yekaterinburg's Soldiers' Mothers
   Committee, told Ekho Moskvy.(Lebedeva) I got a telephone call from the
   mother, just a telephone call. She said that the boys really were
   frightened and really were beaten up. She took photos and contacted the
   military prosecutor's office in Kurgan. The boys have now been sent away
   to Chebarkul (town in Chelyabinsk Region). The mother will visit to the
   military investigations directorate to make a statement, but of course I
   will need to sort this out and go there.(Presenter) The Soldiers' Mothers
   Committee provided the mother with contact details for local rights
   organizations and the law-enforcement agencies in order t o get to the
   bottom of the case as quickly as possible.(Description of Source: Moscow
   Ekho Moskvy Radio in Russian -- influential station known for its news
   coverage and interviews of politicians; now owned by Gazprom but largely
   retains its independence)

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   51) Back to Top
   Russian leader to talk to state TV boss about idea of 'youth talk show' -
   Interfax
   Sunday July 11, 2010 13:00:10 GMT
   talk show"

   Text of report by corporate-owned Russian news agency InterfaxSeliger, 8
   July: Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev has supported the idea of
   creating a yout h talk show on television.During the head of state's visit
   to the (government-sponsored) all-Russia youth educational forum Seliger
   2010, one of the participants asked the president to help bring to life an
   initiative to create a talk show on VGTRK (All-Russian State Television
   and Radio Broadcasting Company).The Russian president said in response
   that he would discuss the idea with VGTRK head Oleg Dobrodeyev. "I will
   tell Dobrodeyev (about it)," said Medvedev.(Description of Source: Moscow
   Interfax in Russian -- Nonofficial information agency known for its
   extensive and detailed reporting on domestic and international issues)

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   Commerce.

   52) Back to Top
   Russian president considers challenges facing media industry - President
   of Russia
   Sunday July 11, 2010 13:15:18 GMT
   Text of report and transcript headlined "Dmitriy Medvedev held a meeting
   on the development of mass media", published on the Russian presidential
   website on 9 JulyThe main topics addressed at the meeting included
   financial support for the media, bridging the technological divide between
   central and regional media, and implementing nationwide public broadband
   internet.Participants in the meeting included Deputy Prime Minister and
   government chief-of-staff Sergey Sobyanin, Deputy Prime Minister and
   Finance Minister Aleksey Kudrin, Telecommunications and Mass
   Communications Minister Igor Shchegolev, head of the Federal Agency for
   Print and Mass Communications Mikhail Seslavinskiy, and heads of major
   state media outlets, including the All-Russian State Televisio n and Radio
   Broadcasting Company (VGTRK), the Voice of Russia Russian state radio
   broadcasting company, the Ostankino television technical centre, and the
   ITAR-TASS and RIA Novosti news agencies.* * *RUSSIAN PRESIDENT OF RUSSIA
   DMITRIY MEDVEDEV: We have agreed to discuss issues pertaining to the
   development of mass media. All forms of development require money, first
   and foremost. There is never enough money, so naturally, we also need to
   look at media development in the upcoming years from a financial point of
   view, and in a substantive way.Yesterday, I held a meeting of the
   Information Society Council (Presidential Council for the Development of
   the Information Society): there, we also discussed modernization of the
   national economy and use of modern technologies, including media and
   information technologies.These issues are important for us. Suffice it to
   say, as of 8 July this year, there were 93,532 media outlets registered in
   Russia - almost 100,000. This is a signific ant force. Moreover, the vast
   majority of these media (over 90 per cent) are private. Thus, rumours that
   all the media in our nation are state-owned are somewhat exaggerated.The
   situation is exactly the opposite, but we have a number of respected media
   that are state-owned (as is the case in other nations as well). And so,
   today we need to talk about how to finance state media and how to help
   private media, including with the support of citizens. This is not only a
   challenge for the government and the federation, but for the regions, too,
   as well as for members of civil society and our business community. All
   possible financing options must be considered.One issue that is very
   relevant for our nation (given its size) is overcoming the technical,
   digital and the so-called content divide between Russian media and leading
   global media. To be quite frank, we must also overcome the gap between the
   central national media that are headquartered in Moscow and several major
   regions o f our nation, and the media in the regions.Here, too, it's not
   that simple. Sometimes, the divide between these media is even greater
   than the technological gap between our major media outlets and foreign
   media (without even mentioning the content gap).We also need to talk about
   technologies and certain other issues that I feel are now becoming
   increasingly relevant. No one has called off our task of developing
   electronic media. This also includes challenges in internet development,
   which I spoke about yesterday at the council meeting.Our common goal
   involves large-scale implementation of broadband internet in the next
   couple of years, providing 90 per cent of our citizens with internet
   access.And naturally, we want to digitize TV channels and media we have
   today, including broadcasts in high definition (HD) and, eventually, in 3D
   format, which is becoming increasingly popular. I don't know how good it
   is for our eyes, but it is quite impressive.All of this represents a majo
   r challenge for the government, and that is precisely why we are meeting
   today.(Description of Source: Moscow President of Russia in English --
   Official website of the Russian Federation president; URL:
   http://www.kremlin.ru)

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   53) Back to Top
   Czech Business Considers Ulyanovsk Region As Very Promising Territory -
   ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 13:10:15 GMT
   intervention)

   ULYANOVSK, July 11 (Itar-Tass) -- The Ulyanovsk region became one of the
   most promising areas for the Czech business, which had already implemented
   several investment projects in that Russ ian territory.The possibilities
   for the development of business cooperation between the Ulyanovsk region
   and the Czech Republic were in the focus of an international conference in
   this Russian city. The conference was held in the format of the Days of
   the Czech Republic, which were held there late in June, an official at the
   regional government told Itar-Tass.The Czech official and business
   delegation comprised President of the Czech Parliament Senate Premysl
   Sobotka, Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Milan Govorka,
   representatives of the Embassy of the Czech Republic in Russia, the
   Chamber of Commerce and Industry for CIS countries, and business
   persons.The guests took part in a national exhibition. About 50 companies
   put on display achievements in various spheres, including energy, IT, car-
   and aircraft-building industries, and electricity generating sector.The
   visit was aimed at the presentation of the national economy, development
   of new contacts between enterprises of the Czech Republic and the
   Ulyanovsk region, as well as strengthening of friendship, Govorka
   said.Governor Sergei Morozov stressed that the region had intensive
   contacts with 67 countries, while the Czech Republic was in the list of
   the five countries, with which Ulyanovsk had established the closest
   relations."In 2005, when we opted strategic partners at the international
   level, the Czech Republic was one of the first countries, which granted
   direct investments in the Ulyanovsk region," the governor said.Currently,
   Ulyanovsk is one of the most promising regions for Czech business, because
   several investment projects have been implemented there. The sides plan to
   expand their interaction and raise the number of joint investment
   projects.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main
   government information agency)

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   54) Back to Top
   Bashkortostan President's Son Steps Down as Deputy Following Media
   Criticism
   Article by Yelizaveta Surnacheva: "Son Behind Father" - Gazeta.ru
   Sunday July 11, 2010 13:47:32 GMT
   Ural Rakhimov, the son of Bashkortostani President Murtaza Rakhimov, is no
   longer a deputy in the republic's State Assembly. At the last meeting in
   the Bashkortostani parliament's spring session on 8 July, deputies in the
   Kurultay unanimously voted in favor of divesting Rakhimov junior of his
   mandate.

   "He wrote a statement himself asking to step down voluntarily," Konstantin
   Tolkachev, the assembly speaker, explained. The speaker said nothing about
   the reasons for Rakhimov's de cision. The parliamentarian was not present
   at the meeting himself.

   The statement was written a long time ago, a source in Rakhimov's
   entourage told Gazeta.ru, but they dragged their feet over him stepping
   down for some reason.

   Rafail Zinnurov, the deputy chairman of the Kurultay, told Gazeta.ru that
   he did not have any information about the time when the statement was
   submitted and that he could not comment on Rakhimov being divested of his
   mandate.

   "This is the final step in Ural's departure from Bashkortostan. When he
   completed the deal to sell the Bashkortostani oil industry, he purportedly
   left for Austria," Ural Khasanov, the head of the regional department at
   the all-Russian Chelovek i Zakon (Man and Law) organization, says.

   His continued membership of the parliament could have presented additional
   grounds for criticism: according to republican legislation, a deputy can
   be dismissed after two absences from Kurultay sessions, Khasa nov adds,
   and Rakhimov has not appeared in the sessions hall for more than a year
   now.. "An additional row could have started about Rakhimov infringing the
   law," he explains.

   His mandate in the regional parliament did not give Rakhimov any special
   privileges, and losing immunity had ceased to be of interest to Rakhimov,
   Khasanov thinks. According to the law On the General Principles of
   Organizing the Legislative (Representative) and Executive Bodies of State
   Power in Component Parts of the Russian Federation, the head of the
   regional administration of the Investigative Committee under the
   Prosecutor's Office takes the decision on instigating criminal proceedings
   against deputies in the legislative assembly. The security bodies in the
   republic are essentially no longer under the control of the republican
   regime: all those holding significant ranks have been replaced by Moscow
   over the past two years.

   "His action was quite logical: he left parliame nt in order let some fresh
   blood into politics and to give new people an opportunity to work," Andrey
   Nazarov, a State Duma deputy from Bashkortostan, thinks. "Rakhimov
   understood that the time for changes had come," the parliamentarian
   thinks.

   People started to talk again about big changes in the republic after two
   federal channels at once - television First Channel and NTV - as well as
   the federal edition of Rossiyskaya Gazeta, published material that was not
   flattering to the republic's leaders. In an item on Programma Maksimum,
   Rakhimov junior was presented as the former owner of the entire republican
   oil industry and he made, according to different data, between 500 million
   and 3 billion dollars from selling it.

   On 24 June, the Chelovek i Zakon programme on television First Channel
   broadcast a report on the business links between the Bashkortostani
   president's son and a former senator from the republic, Igor Izmestyev,
   who is accused of crea ting a gang and attacking citizens at the beginning
   of the 1990s and also of an attempt on the life of Ural Rakhimov himself.
   On 4 July, the Vremya programme on television First Channel, which is
   fully under state-c ontrol, broadcast an extremely critical report about
   the situation in Bashkortostan as a whole. On 30 June, a similar article
   on Bashkortostan was published in Rossiyskaya Gazeta.

   At the time, Gazeta.ru 's sources close to the federal regime explained
   the large-scale anti-Rakhimov attack as "the preliminary bombardment"
   ahead of his early retirement. Rakhimov junior's stepping down is being
   linked with this.

   "Ural understood that Murtaza would not leave quietly and if his father
   was removed harshly this would also affect Ural himself," Gazeta.ru 's
   source close to the United Russia leadership is sure. It is possible that
   he will apply for foreign citizenship or will stay in Moscow, he thinks.

   The republic's president did n ot leave the wide-ranging criticism of his
   son in the state media and the media close to the state unanswered. On 5
   July, the president lodged action in defense of his honor and dignity
   against the NTV television company, and on 8 July it became known that a
   similar case had been instigated against the Russian government's official
   press organ - Rossiyskaya Gazeta (Gazeta.ru has copies of the statements
   of claim at its disposal).

   The defendants in the first action are Nikolay Shvetsov, the Ufa resident
   shown in the film, the NTV television company, and the correspondent Gleb
   Pyyanykh. The second action is lodged against the GUP RB Upravleniye
   maloetazhnym stroitelstvom (low-rise construction administration) and
   Rossiyskaya Gazeta. In both cases, according the Civil Procedure Code, the
   plaintiff has the right to choose the place where the case will be heard.
   Rakhimov has chosen the Leninskiy and Kirovskiy district courts in Ufa.

   Khasanov is sure that having the cases heard in the republican courts
   means there is the opportunity to apply the maximum amount of pressure on
   the judges and gain the desired result. Murtaza Rakhimov has already won
   cases against NTV in the Ufa courts twice before - in 2007 and 2008

   (Description of Source: Moscow Gazeta.ru in Russian -- Popular website
   owned by LiveJournal proprietor SUP: often critical of the government;
   URL: http://www.gazeta.ru)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   55) Back to Top
   First Electricity-generating Facility Of Polar Urals Project Launched In
   Yamal - ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 13:15:18 GMT
   intervention)

   YEKATERINBURG, July 11 (Itar-Tass) -- The first electricity-generating
   facility - a 12-megawatt Kharp power plant - was commissioned in Yamal in
   the format of the Industrial Urals - Polar Urals mega project this
   week.Taking part in the ceremony were Presidential Envoy to the Urals
   Federal District Nikolai Vinnichenko, as well as the governors of the
   Kurgan, Tyumen, Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk regions, and the Khanty-Mansi
   and Yamal-Nenets autonomous areas."The Kharp power plant is the first
   facility, which was commissioned in the format of the Industrial Urals -
   Polar Urals investment mega project," Vinnichenko said.The new power plant
   will make it possible to guarantee stable electricity supplies to the
   consumers of the federal district, an official at the presidential envoy's
   staff told Itar-Tass.In addition, the power plant's designers foresaw a
   possibility to link new consumers, the official said, adding that there
   would be no growth of ch arges for electricity.The local authorities said
   that charges would decrease by five to 15 percent, which would become
   possible owing to the use of energy-efficient high technologies and
   maximum use of local components, the official said.The work of the power
   plant in the regime of combined electricity and heating generation will
   make it possible to use fuel efficiently, and meet the environmental
   requirements, the official said, explaining that the plant's pollutant
   emissions would be two times less than it was envisaged by the relevant
   norms.The Industrial Urals - Polar Urals embraces a vast territory of the
   Urals Federal District. The project envisages creation of a unique
   industrial and infrastructure network aimed at the upgrading and using of
   the existing industrial potential of the territory through the development
   of resources of the circumpolar and Polar Urals and construction of key
   components of the transport and energy infrastructure's key
   components.There is an intensive development of chromite ores in the area
   of the Kharp power plant. It is planned to build a ore dressing plant
   there.Implementation of the Industrial Urals - Polar Urals project will
   make it possible to meet the demand of the Southern Urals in manganese and
   chromium ore, as well as ferrous and non-ferrous ore and many other raw
   materials.In order to develop this "Russia's Klondike of raw materials," a
   railway line, a highway, new power plants and dozens of kilometers of
   electric transmission lines will be built along the Eastern slope of the
   Urals mountains.All in all, 1,200 kilometres of railroads and 800
   kilometres of automobile roads will be built in the format of the
   project.More than 20 billion roubles will be invested in geological
   surveys in the format of the Industrial Urals - Polar Urals project before
   2015.As it was said earlier, the project's investments exceed 800 billion
   roubles (USD 1 = RUB 30.79), three-fourths (359.7 billion roubles) of wh
   ich are expected to be assigned by private investors. The rest funds will
   be received from regional budgets.The Industrial Urals - Polar Urals
   project will receive 105 billion roubles from the Russian Investment
   Fund.All Russia's largest oil companies, including TNK-BP, LUKOIL, SIBUR,
   energy companies (which will be drawn for the construction of
   gas-generation and power plants), Russia's Railways, and other companies
   are investor partners of the mega project.Foreign investors are also
   interested in the participation in the project. For instance, the fund of
   Saudi Arabia's Royal Family will take part in the investments in Russia's
   Industrial Urals - Polar Urals project.All in all, the Industrial Urals -
   Polar Urals corporation have signed about 30 investment agreements.
   Implementation of the mega-project that is expected to link the industry
   of the Southern Urals with natural resources of circumpolar areas will
   give a fresh impetus to the development of the entire federal dis
   trict.The project is expected to promote social and economic development
   of the Urals and Western Siberia, and make it possible to create new jobs.
   As many as 60,000 additional jobs will be created already at the initial
   stage of the railway construction.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS
   in English -- Main government information agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   56) Back to Top
   Informal CIS summit in Ukraine focuses on trade, infrastructure - Unian
   Sunday July 11, 2010 13:47:33 GMT
   The participants in the informal meeting of CIS leaders, which was held in
   Ukraine's Crimea on 10 J uly, have positively assessed its results, the
   UNIAN news agency reported the same day quoting an official joint
   statement posted on the website of Ukrainian President Viktor
   Yanukovych."We, Azeri President Ilham Aliyev, Armenian President Serzh
   Sargsyan, Belarussian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka, Kazakh President
   Nursultan Nazarbayev, Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev, Ukrainian
   President Viktor Yanukovych and the executive secretary and chairman of
   the CIS Executive Committee, Sergey Lebedev, the heads of the CIS member
   countries, positively assess the results of the informal meeting in
   Ukraine, which focused on the issues of economic and investment
   cooperation within the CIS as well as prospects for implementation of
   joint projects in developing transport and tourism infrastructures
   including those on the regional level," the document said.According to the
   meeting participants, "much attention was paid to liberalization of trade
   between our countries&amp;quo t;. It was agreed to continue active work on a
   new free-trade accord and consider this issue during the next sitting of
   the council of CIS heads of state.Apart from that, the participants agreed
   to actively participate in implementation of joint infrastructure
   projects, particularly in preparations for the 2012 European football
   championship in Ukraine and the 2014 Winter Olympics in Russia's
   Sochi.(Description of Source: Kiev Unian in Ukrainian -- major independent
   news agency, considered a fairly reliable source of information)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   57) Back to Top
   Beijing Plans To Reach $60-Bln Turnover In Russia-China Trade By Yearend -
   ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 13:31:25 GMT
   intervention)

   MOSCOW, July 11 (Itar-Tass) -- Beijing plans to reach 60-billion-dollar
   turnover in Russian-Chinese trade before the end of the year, Vice
   Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress of
   the Republic of China Hua Jianmin said at the Russian Chamber of Commerce
   and Industry."Lately, Russian-Chinese relations develop dynamically and
   show rather high level. Strategic partnership is permanently
   strengthening. The two countries have close or identical stances on the
   key international problems," Hua said."Despite the global economic crisis,
   the two countries managed to keep an upward dynamics in their trade and
   economic relations, mainly in the energy sector," he said."I am confident
   that bilateral trade will grow significantly and even reach 60 billion
   U.S. dollars by the yearend, when an oil pipeline between Russia and China
   is commissioned in September 2010," the Chinese official said."The
   Russian-Chinese Friendship, Peace and Development Committee is the major
   floor of humanitarian contacts. In addition, it plays a key role in the
   enhancement of relations between Moscow and Beijing," Hua said.In his
   words, "jointly with Russia we would like to raise our relations into a
   new level.""My visit was aimed at a meeting with co-chairman of the
   Russian-Chinese Friendship, Peace and Development Committee and Russian
   Presidential Envoy to the Siberian Federal District Leonid Drachevsky,"
   Hua said.He voiced satisfaction with the results of the meeting. "We
   exchanged views, reached a set of important agreements. Upon the results
   of the talks, we signed a plan of action for our committee for 2011," the
   Chinese official said.President of the Russian Chamber of Commerce and
   Industry Yevgeny Primakov stressed: "Bilateral interaction is based on the
   mutually beneficial strategic partnership, which is confirmed by meetings
   at the top level."In his words, Moscow and Beijing develop intensive
   cooperation, including in the export of electricity, peaceful use of
   atomic energy, and humanitarian contacts. "In 2009, bilateral trade
   reached 56 billion U.S. dollars," Primakov said.During the visit to Russia
   on July 5-10, the Chinese delegation led by Hua made trips to Moscow, St.
   Petersburg and Irkutsk among others.(Description of Source: Moscow
   ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   58) Back to Top
   First Project Of Glonass For Agriculture Starts In Kemerovo Reg ion -
   ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 13:21:20 GMT
   intervention)

   KEMEROVO, July 11 (Itar-Tass) -- A Glonass-based satellite navigation
   system was installed and began operating on cars, trucks, combines and
   tractors of the Vaganovo agricultural company in the Kemerovo region's
   Promyshlenny district this week.This is the first experience of the
   large-scale implementation of the high-tech communication system in the
   Russian agricultural sector. The system is expected to increase the
   efficiency of the agricultural management.A controller and the director of
   the agricultural company will monitor on-line agricultural machinery's
   location, speed of movement, fuel volume, as well as quality of farming
   operations, yield level, out-of-work periods and even possible fuel
   stealing.While representing the new system, First Deputy Governor Valentin
   Mazikin said that the project would encourage h igher production of grain
   and vegetables.An electronic map of farmlands was installed in Vaganovo in
   the format of the project. The novelty makes it possible to look at the
   territories under crops and the scales of chemical treatment, and control
   transportation of products.The temperature limits of devices installed at
   the agricultural machinery ranges between minus 40 degrees and plus 75
   degrees Celsius, which is of huge importance in the severe climatic
   conditions of Siberia.The navigation equipment is tamperproof and rugged.
   It can determine location of a vehicle with the accuracy of ten metres.In
   the first day of the action, the devices of the satellite navigation
   system were installed on 68 pierces of agricultural machinery, which were
   farming 22,000 hectares of farmlands, President of the Siberian Business
   Council Company Mikhail Fedyayev said.The company expects that the
   implementation of the project will make it possible to decrease
   operational expenses, raise labour productivity by at least 15 percent and
   increase the yield of farmlands.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS
   in English -- Main government information agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   59) Back to Top
   USA Interested In Russian Entry Into WTO - Assistant Secretary - ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 13:10:16 GMT
   intervention)

   TBILISI, July 10 (Itar-Tass) -- The United States is interested in
   Russia's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO), U.S. Assistant
   Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Philip Gordon said in
   an interview broadcasted by the Tbilisi Rust avi 2 channel on Saturday.The
   Russian membership in the WTO is important for U.S. economy, world trade
   and Russia, Gordon said.It is necessary for Russia to answer remaining
   economic questions of Georgia, a WTO member, such as the possibility to
   lift the embargo on imports of Georgian wine, mineral water and other
   products, Gordon said.The WTO was established on January 1, 1995, as the
   successor to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) that had
   been operating since 1947. This is the only international body supervising
   world trade. The WTO has the status of a UN specialized agency. It is
   headquartered in Geneva.The WTO has 153 members at present. Negotiations
   on the admission of a new member are held within the working group, which
   unites countries that have unsettled trade problems with the candidate.As
   a rule, negotiations focus on four areas: accessibility to the goods
   market, agriculture, accessibility to the market of services, and systemic
   matters. The candi date must bring its national laws in correspondence
   with the WTO rules. Two-thirds of votes of WTO members are sufficient for
   the admission of a new member. Regularly, the accession process takes a
   decade.Russia applied for membership in the WTO in December 1994. The
   number of its negotiating partners kept growing through the years, and the
   latest working group had 58 members - the largest working group ever in
   the entire history of the WTO. Six-year negotiations with the United
   States were the most difficult for Russia (the bilateral protocol was
   signed on November 19, 2006). The negotiations with the European Union
   also lasted for six years (the protocol was signed on May 21, 2004). Yet
   there are still some unresolved problems - export duties on timber with
   the EU and the activity of state-owned enterprises with the U.S.Russia
   expressed dissatisfaction with the dragging out admission process many
   times."Russia is ready to enter into the WTO on non-discriminative terms .
   We have done our best to achieve that," President Dmitry Medvedev said.The
   United States and Russia had agreed to complete the process by the end of
   September, U.S. Ambassador in Moscow John Beyrle said in an interview
   published by the July 2 issue of the newspaper Izvestia.The Jackson-Vanik
   amendment will automatically cease to exist with the Russian admission to
   the WTO, the ambassador said. In fact, the amendment is already invalid
   and has no effect on bilateral trade. However, it has a very large
   psychological significance, he said.Beyrle noted that the U.S. and Russian
   leaders had agreed to concentrate on economic relations, which fell short
   the potential. Bilateral trade stood at $24 billion in 2009, and $36
   billion before the crisis. That is nothing for such large countries as the
   United States and Russia, he said.The ambassador commented on results
   achieved over the past year. Large U.S. investors - Alcoa, Kimberly Clark,
   John Deere and Pepsi Cola - opened pla nts in Russia, and investments
   topped $2 billion in the Moscow region alone. Boeing and Rostekhnologii
   agreed on the acquisition of 50 new Boeing 737 jets. Cisco Systems will
   invest over one billion dollars in innovative projects in Russia,
   including Skolkovo.Strong and prosperous Russia is advantageous for the
   United States, which needs predictable and reliable partners in the
   deterrence of threats of the 21st century, the ambassador
   said.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main
   government information agency)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   60) Back to Top
   Estonian Commentary Questions Russias Motives in Construction of
   Baltiiskii NPP
   Commentary by Jaanus P iirsalu: "Russia Pushing Baltic Countries Into
   Using Electricity Produced in Russia While Lithuanians Cannot Reach
   Agreement" - Eesti Paevaleht
   Sunday July 11, 2010 13:07:14 GMT
   These are interesting times in the Baltic region's energetics. Russia
   wants its nuclear power plant in Kaliningrad to occupy the niche the
   closed down Lithuanian Ignalina plant left empty, in order to win a
   considerable market share in the Baltic countries. How likely is it and
   what kind of a security risk will it pose to the Baltic states, especially
   Lithuania? For several months now, about a hundred excavators, cranes and
   trucks have been hard at work in the Kaliningrad region, a mere 15
   kilometers from the Lithuanian border. Here, on the outskirts of Neman,
   the Baltiiskii nuclear power plant (NPP) will be built over the next six
   years ans will become the largest power plant in the region after I
   gnalina NPP was closed down late last year. "At the moment, we are
   preparing the 300- hectare construction site," Ashot Nasibov, a
   representative of the Russian state-owned Rosatom group explained whilst
   standing on the verge of a former collective farm field. There are few
   fields of that size in Estonia. "Every day, 25,000 cubic meters of soil
   are moved," Nasimov said continuing with impressive figures.

   Let me remind you that in late February when Tallinn was snowed in, the
   same amount of snow was moved in four days. Russia's Deputy Prime Minister
   Sergey Ivanov laid a cornerstone for the new plant in late February. In
   early June, the excavation of the first reactor pit commenced. The pit
   must be 15 meters deep and 200 by 200 meters wide. The pit will be so deep
   that a small block of 5-storey apartment buildings would fit in there with
   only the rooftops showing. The speed of the construction work is clearly
   high and, therefore, it would be no wonder if concrete casting were to
   begin next spring, as Rosatom has promised. Rosatom plans to start the
   first reactor of the Baltiiskii NPP in summer 2016 and the second one or
   two years later. "We can start (the reactors) earlier if there is a
   shortage of electricity in the region," Sergey Boyarkin, the deputy
   director general of Rosenergoatom, responsible for the construction of the
   Baltiiskii NPP, said.

   The capacity of both reactors of the Baltiiskii NPP will be 1,190 MW
   which, combined, amounts to almost 2,400 MW. Let us compare: the capacity
   of the Ignalina reactor, closed down on 31 December 2009, was close to
   1,300 MW which met 70% of Lithuania's annual demand. Those (the reactors
   in the Baltiiskii NPP) are the most contemporary Russian light-water
   pressurized VVER series nuclear reactors to be built also in the
   Leningradskaya NPP-2 in Sosnovy Bor. The first of the four new nuclear
   power units in Sosnovy Bor will be completed in 2014 to grad ually replace
   the old, so-called Chernobyl-type (RBMK) reactors of the first nuclear
   power plant. According to Ashot Nasibov, the VVER series reactor has been
   certified that it meets European requirements since it will be used in the
   Belene nuclear power plant in Bulgaria. So, it is highly probable that the
   Baltiiskii NPP will be safe. At least no one has publicly raised the
   safety issue in earnest. The most burning issue is not safety of the new
   plant but where the Russians intend to sell the electricity produced by
   the plant. There is no answer yet, although the construction of the plant
   is underway. Rosatom has estimated that construction of the plant
   operating two nuclear reactors will cost 5 billion Euros (nearly 80
   billion kroons) ($6.4 billion), which is only marginally less than
   Estonia's total state budget this year. This is exclusive of transmission
   costs which may, depending on the option chosen, cost a further 0.5 to 1.6
   billion Euros.

   All in all, t he (Baltiiskii) nuclear power plant will be as expensive as
   the Nord Stream su b-marine gas pipeline. It is logical to assume that not
   even Russia would spend so much money without a specific plan.
   Unfortunately, Russia does not want to reveal the plan, or they really do
   not have a plan yet. In any case, limited transmission opportunities are
   the weakest link of Russia's project. Sergey Boyarkin said in Vilnius in
   June that they would have until 2013 to decide where to sell electricity
   produced by the Baltiiskii NPP. "At the moment we are in no hurry," he
   claimed. The annual demand of the Kaliningrad region amounts to 1,000 MW
   at the most; currently operating power plants and a new natural gas fueled
   plant started in the fall will meet the needs completely. "Baltiiskii NPP
   is built to export energy," Andres Mae, a researcher at the Estonian
   Foreign Policy Institute told Eesti Paevaleht. Kazys Almenas, an expert on
   nuclear energy involved in the mo dernization of the Ignalina NPP in the
   1990s, agrees with him. "Its (the Baltiiskii NPP's) only purpose is to
   export energy," Almenas told Eesti Paevaleht.

   Lithuania would be the most logical market where Russia could sell the
   electricity produced by the Baltiiskii NPP. Lithuania is the only country
   to be connected with the Kalinigrad region by high voltage transmission
   lines. Lithuania used to export energy to Kaliningrad when Ignalina was
   operational, and now the Russians would like the transmission to work the
   other way round. Boyarkin asserted in Vilnius that the said transmission
   lines would only need slight modernization to be able to transmit 1,000 MW
   which nearly corresponds to the intended production capacity of one
   nuclear reactor in the Baltiiskii NPP. Lithuanians say that the
   transmission lines can be used to deliver 750 MW at the most. In any case,
   there is the theoretical possibility of Russia starting to export energy
   to Lithuania even t omorrow, although there is no market in Lithuania for
   all the Baltiiskii NPP output. "Theoretically it is possible to have one
   reactor of the Baltiiskii NPP produce electricity for Kaliningrad, and the
   other for export. Some of the energy would be sold in Lithuania, the rest
   in Latvia and Estonia," Boyarkin described their ideal plan.

   A common electricity market

   Yet, it is very likely that, by the time the Baltiiskii NPP is completed,
   there will be no separate Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian energy markets.
   There will be a common Baltic energy market which will be connected with
   the Nordic energy market. The weak point of the Russian plan is that
   Lithuanians do not want to buy electricity from the Baltiiskii NPP but
   have plans to build their own nuclear power plant. Lithuania's Prime
   Minister Andrius Kubilius publicly confirmed it as recently as mid June.
   Currently Lithuania is importing most of the electricity it needs; part of
   it, occasionall y even 70 to 80% of the total consumption which almost
   equals the amount produced earlier by Ignalina, is exported from Smolensk
   NPP in Russia. (Energy) Independence from Russia is a security issue for
   Lithuania. "We are not satisfied with such a situation (where electricity
   is imported from Russia)," Linas Koraliovas, one of the project managers
   of Lithuania's nuclear power plant told Eesti Paevaleht. "Russia is, of
   course, a good neighbor but they can take advantage of the situation in
   order to assert their political influence. One reason for Lithuania to
   build a nuclear power plant is to have energy independence." Latvia and
   Estonia support Lithuania's position.

   "We understand that we must quickly and clearly express our position that
   first, we are not interested in energy exports from the plant in the
   Kaliningrad region, and second, we are interested in the rapid development
   of the Lithuanian (nuclear power) plant project," Andre s Tropp, the head
   of the Nuclear Energy Department at Eesti Energia said. Russia received
   the first clear message on 31 May when the economic affairs' ministers of
   the Baltic states and the deputy economic affairs' minister of Poland met
   with EU Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger in Brussels. The communique
   signed at the meeting clearly stated that, when integrating into the
   Nordic electricity market, the Baltic states will implement common policy
   measures concerning trading principles toward non-European Economic
   Association (EEA) third countries (meaning: toward Russia). It is too
   early to speculate what the policy measures will be like. Russia is
   implying that Lithuania (as well as Latvia and Estonia) would be stupid to
   refuse electricity produced in the Baltiiskii NPP since it will be cheap.

   Rosatom has a complete technology solution for constructing and launching
   a nuclear power plant which will certainly enable them to offer lower
   selling prices than Lit huania's future nuclear power plant, let alone
   fossil fuel power stations. "Our electricity will be cheap. Don't buy, if
   you don't need cheap electricity!" Sergey Boyarkin, the deputy director
   general of Rosenergoatom declared confidently in Vilnius in mid June. "You
   cannot force others to like you." Although the management of Lithuania's
   nuclear power plant project refrain from talking about competition between
   their and Russia's projects, it is quite clear that the competition is
   strong. For example, both are looking for strategic investors to help them
   finance the construction of their plants. Lithuania has a bigger problem
   since Rosatom, that is Russia will build the first reactor of the
   Baltiiskii NPP anyway, despite the fact that, for the first time in the
   history of Russia, they have invited foreign investors to participate in
   the project, offering them shares up to 49%. The second reactor will
   probably only be built if Rosatom can find outs ide investors. For
   example, one of the potential investors is Italian Enel.

   Russian representatives have repeatedly said in public that they do not
   believe that the Lithuanian nuclear power plant will ever be built since
   the Lithuanians do not have enough resources or political consensus on the
   matter. "They do not have the money. Money is the only issue -- if they
   get the money, they will build the plant, and if they don't get the money,
   then they will not build it," Ashot Nasibov, the spokesperson of Rosatom
   in the matters relating to the Baltiiskii NPP, noted. "We have the money."
   It is quite possible that foreign investors will have less interest in the
   construction of a nuclear power plant in Lithuania once the Baltiiskii NPP
   is launched. Lithuanians, on the other hand, diligently spread the word
   about the Baltiiskii NPP project not meeting all the international
   requirements, saying that the project was launched quickly in a dubious
   way. The project was announced three years ago and now the construction is
   already underway, Lithuanians have pointed out. Some Lithuanian
   politicians have noted that the Russians quickly passed approval and
   licensing procedures which take years in the West. Rosatom has responded
   by saying that the International Atomic Energy Agency has not reproached
   their project. The stakes in the ongoing information war are high since
   the energy security of the Baltic states is the issue. "Russia is clearly
   interested in taking control of the electricity market in the Baltic
   region," Andres Tropp from Eesti Energia claimed. "The Baltiiskii NPP
   operating two reactors would meet a large part of the baseload demand in
   the Baltic region. The decisions taken over the coming years will shape
   our market for the next 60 to 70 years."

   Kazys Almenas, a nuclear energy expert from Lithuania agrees with Tropp.
   "Have the Russians ever done anything without keeping t heir political
   interests in mind?" he posed a rhetorical question. Those behi nd the
   Baltiiskii NPP project have assured (their opponents) that there is
   nothing political in the project -- they just want to earn from the
   pending serious shortage of energy in the region. "We predict an energy
   shortage of 5,000 to 7,000 MW in the region (the Baltic countries and
   northern Poland) in the next few years," Sergey Boyarkin claimed. There
   will certainly be a shortage since the European Union requires us to close
   down old non-environmentally friendly power plants, although the above
   figures may be exaggerated since Boyarkin did not obviously take into
   account the projects to be launched in the Baltic countries and Poland.

   Will the European Union react?

   Russia is counting on us closing down old fossil fuel power plants. Russia
   has naturally no intention of adhering to the European Union energy policy
   or adopting the EU electricity market rules, but hop es to take advantage
   of the situation and take control over the electricity market of its
   neighbors. It will be interesting to see whether the European Union
   intends to react to it in any way in order to protect the interests of the
   Baltic states and also Poland. However, even if the predictions of
   Boyarkin were right, there would be enough room on the Baltic market for
   both the Baltiiskii NPP and the Lithuanian plant. By the way, Virgilijus
   Poderys, the economic director of the Lithuanian project is of the same
   opinion.

   Andres Mae, researcher at the Estonian Foreign Policy Institute does not
   consider Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia purchasing electricity from the
   Baltiiskii NPP a serious security risk. "To a certain extent, we can
   consider losing control over electricity production a security risk. Yet,
   we would maintain some production capacity," Mae explained. "Market risks
   are the principal risks associated with the Baltiiskii NPP -- on an open
   market we can no longer subsidize local energy producers, if their selling
   prices are higher than the prices of imported energy. Domestic producers
   must compete with foreign producers and the consumer has the opportunity
   to choose the company offering lower selling prices." In 2013, the Baltic
   countries will launch a common, open electricity market. Consumers will
   buy from companies offering lower selling prices. The Baltic electricity
   market is synchronized with the Russian market, and Estonia, Latvia and
   Lithuania should have no problem purchasing electricity from Russia.

   (Description of Source: Tallinn Eesti Paevaleht in Estonian -- popular
   daily with second largest readership in Tallinn, Northern Estonia)

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   61) Back to Top
   Direct Talks With Israel Are Waste Of Time/energy Under - ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 13:15:19 GMT
   intervention)

   CAIRO, July 11 (Itar-Tass) -- Direct negotiations with Israel would have
   been a waste of time and energy under current circumstances, Palestinian
   National Authority (PNA) President Mahmoud Abbas said in Ramallah on
   Sunday.If Tel Aviv proposes to start the dialog anew, that will be totally
   senseless and useless, Abbas said. Palestinians will not agree to
   negotiate until Israel stops building homes on Palestinian lands and
   decides to restart the dialog from the point it was thwarted at, he
   said.The Israeli government does not accept the terms so far, Abbas
   noted.He said earlier that he had been waiting for Israeli replies to such
   key questions as security and borders.The indi rect peace dialog was
   launched on May 9 after the League of Arab States (LAS) had authorized
   Abbas' negotiations with Israel and set the negotiations deadline at four
   months. There have been several rounds of the dialog mediated by U.S.
   envoy George Mitchell but there is tangible progress so far.(Description
   of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information
   agency)

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   62) Back to Top
   Russian state TV pulses with suspicion over US, UK choice of spy-swap four
   - Rossiya 1
   Sunday July 11, 2010 12:54:06 GMT
   Text of report by Russian official state t elevision channel Rossiya
   1("Vesti v Subbotu" presenter Sergey Brilev. "Vesti v Subbotu", or "Vesti
   on Saturday", is the Saturday, expanded edition of Rossiya 1's "Vesti"
   main evening news, with elements of editorial comment) Now, to new details
   and twists in the story to do with the exchange of nine Russians and a
   Peruvian woman, who've been arrested in the US, for the spy foursome
   released from prison in Russia yesterday.Today, for example, more became
   known about why one of them, namely Gennadiy Vasilenko, found himself
   behind bars. He, Interfax explains, is a former KGB officer and former
   deputy head of security at the TV company NTV Plyus, who in 2006 was
   convicted of illegal possession of weapons, attempted manufacture of an
   explosive device and resisting arrest. However, there were no charges of
   any kind to do with espionage. How then did he get on the list of those to
   be exchanged in this, apparently spy story?It was already ni ght time in
   Moscow when US Vice-President Joseph Biden gave a remarkable interview to
   US NBC TV. He said two amazing things. First of all, asked by the host
   whether America had such charming agents as Anna Chapman, Biden appeared
   to laugh it off. I did not take the decision to send her home, he said.
   But, joking aside, who then made the decision if not Biden, that is to say
   not the White House? It's a mystery.Second, as concerns the exchange of 10
   for just four, Biden called it equivalent. It means that, again, Gennadiy
   Vasilenko, even though he was behind bars on a completely different
   charge, is in some way of value to the US, but in what way? It's another
   mystery. Be that as it may, this confirms what the competent authorities
   (Soviet form of reference to the security agencies) in Russia have
   confirmed to us, namely that the list of those to be exchanged came from
   the West.And now, the well-informed newspaper The Washington Post writes
   today, now with reference to the com petent authorities in the US, that
   the four were picked for the exchange precisely by the US. And then
   there's today's publication in the London newspaper The Guardian. It
   writes that the CIA-chartered plane not just landed at the British Royal
   Air Force's Brize Norton base in Oxfordshire en route to Washington, but
   dropped off two of its four special passengers there. According to our
   British colleagues, Sergey Skripal, a former colonel in the GRU (Russian
   military intelligence), who was convicted in Russia of working precisely
   for Britain's Intelligence Service (pronounced in English), as well as
   Igor Sutyagin, never flew to the United States but remained in Britain. Of
   the latter man, it has been said in Russia that the information he passed
   to the West can be gleaned from open sources, but now it all somehow seems
   more complex, shall we say.Sutyagin is now in a hotel in a small town just
   outside London. As for the last special passenger to be named, he is
   Aleksandr Zapor ozhskiy, a former lieutenant colonel. The American TV
   company (?CBS) has learnt that when he flew to the States, he flew back
   home. Apparently back in 1999, he bought a house in the State of Maryland,
   apparently for 980,000 dollars, and apparently his son lives there. It's
   yet another mystery.Well, the reunion of families is always a special
   theme, especially since most of them are still very little girls and boys
   - the children of those who yesterday flew in the opposite direction, to
   Domodedovo. And, of course, to these girls and boys, their parents are no
   illegals and no spies, but just mum and dad. Purely humanly, we wish these
   families speedy reunification.(A foretaste of the angle likely to be taken
   on the story by Rossiya 1's "Vesti Nedeli" Sunday news and comment
   programme was given in the "Vesti on Saturday" trailer for the programme,
   which it was said will look at how "four traitors" were swapped for "10
   intelligence agents") (Description of Source: Moscow Rossiya 1 in Russian
   -- Large state-owned network broadcasting to almost all of Russia
   (formerly Rossiya TV))

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   63) Back to Top
   Contract On Work At New Block Of Vietnam Shelf To Be Signed In October -
   ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 12:12:36 GMT
   intervention)

   MOSCOW, July 11 (Itar-Tass) - The document, controlling work under
   contract block 09-1 (deposits White Tiger and Dragon on the shelf of South
   Vietnam) was one of three documents, signed on Sunday by executives of the
   Russian Zarubezhneft Company and Vietnamese PetroVietna m Corporation in
   the presence of secretary general of the Central Committee of the
   Vietnamese Communist Party Nong Duc Manh.This news was told to reporters
   on Sunday by first deputy director-general of the Russian state-owned
   Zarubezhneft Company Viktor Gorshenev.The sides "signed today materials of
   the 37th meeting of the board of the Vietsovpetro joint venture, which
   included the main document, controlling the continuation of work at block
   09-1", he said. The main question - feasibility report was agreed upon
   this Sunday, he explained.According to Gorshenev, the Vietnamese side will
   address its government in the near future to approve these conditions, and
   the sides are to conclude full preparation of the contract by August 1,"
   the Zarubezhneft deputy head specified.Besides, the signed final documents
   approved for the first time indicators for oil production over the next
   five years (earlier such plans were approved for two years at the most).
   In Gorshenev's words, starting from 2011, it is plan to recover annually
   6.14 million tonnes. Then provision is made for some increase in recovery,
   while in 2015 - a decline to 5.9 million tonnes.On the whole, Gorshenev
   emphasised, the results of Vietsovpetro work were recognised as positive
   over the first six months of this year. "We now overfulfil the plan,
   totalling 6 million this year plus 200,000 tonnes of an additional task.
   We hope that we shall fulfil and overfulfil this plan over the year," he
   said.The signed document also provides for converting the Vietsovpetro
   venture into a joint stock company from January 1, 2011 and approves the
   charter of the company with limited liability whose founders remain
   Petrovietnam and Zarubezhneft with 51 and 49 percent of stocks,
   respectively.According to Gorshenev, the final document also regulates a
   provision on the personnel of the new company with limited
   liability.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main
   governm ent information agency)

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   64) Back to Top
   Railroad Track Damaged In Explosion Being Repaired In Dagestan - ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 12:49:04 GMT
   intervention)

   MOSCOW, July 11 (Itar-Tass) -- The railroad track damaged in the Sunday
   explosion in Dagestan is being repaired, a source in the North Caucasian
   railroad administration told Itar-Tass."Forensic experts have ended their
   work and permitted to start the repairs of the Achi-Izberbash railroad
   line. More than 100 workers and five repair trains are cleaning up the
   damage," he said.It is nec essary to restore a contact wire support and
   250 meters of the track and to take away the locomotive and train cars.The
   explosion, which occurred under a freight train at 4:15 a.m. Moscow time,
   derailed a locomotive and 16 train cars. Twelve train cars capsized. "No
   one was hurt. The cars were carrying grain," the source said.Six commuter
   trains were suspended together with the Rostov-Baku passenger train.A
   criminal case was opened, the source noted.(Description of Source: Moscow
   ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)

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   65) Back to Top
   Govt To Raise Prestige Of Fishermen's Difficult Work-vice-premier -
   ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 11:01:53 GMT
   intervention)

   MOSCOW, July 11 (Itar-Tass) - The fishing industry for the Russian
   government "has been a priority area in the development of the national
   economy", first vice-premier Viktor Zubkov assured the best workers of the
   Russian fishing complex.He congratulated them on their professional
   holiday and awarded state decorations. The vice-premier expressed
   gratitude for their work to ichthyologists, fish breeders, scholars,
   engineers, captains and mechanics of ships, fishermen and inspectors of
   the fish protection service. Russia marks Fishermen Day according to
   tradition on second Sunday of July."We shall pay special attention to
   inviting young specialists to the industry and to raising the prestige of
   fishermen's difficult work," Zubkov promised to Russian fishermen.The
   vice-premier told reporters that he is satisfied on the whol e with the
   present successes of this economic sector. "Indeed, the industry has
   registered very stable work over the past few years. Incidentally, even
   under the crisis conditions, volumes of fish catches are annually
   increasing; coastal infrastructure started working better, work discipline
   improved, and there is less poaching," Zubkov described the situation in
   the fishing complex.According to the vice-premier, much merit for this
   goes to the government. "The resolved set of questions over the past two
   or three years permit this economic sector to operate in a stable way," he
   said confidently.This idea was also corroborated by speeches of industry
   workers decorated by the government. Many of them expressed gratitude for
   support to the first vice-premier who is in charge of the fisheries
   complex. "There are virtually no questions that need an immediate
   solution. On the other hand, questions which pop up, we seek to resolve
   quickly in the government, " Zubkov told reporters after the conversation
   with decorated workers."The industry can build up volumes with every
   pasting year and to operate profitably. Fishermen said today that their
   wages are going up, and profitability of the industry is on the rise,
   which is the main thing," Zubkov emphasised.According to data of the
   Russian fisheries agency, Russian fishermen caught two million tonnes of
   fish and marine products over the first six months of 2010. "The planned
   catch of four million tonnes will be fulfilled this year, and we strictly
   stick to the schedule of catches," agency head Andrei Krainy said with
   confidence.By the results of the first six months, the industry placed
   third in work efficiency among other economic sectors. Last week, Krainy
   said with pride that Russian fishermen returned to fish horse mackerel and
   krill in international waters: "We want to cover the entire Atlantic in
   areas where the Soviet fishing fleet operated in t he past and to return
   to economic zones of Latin America."Krainy also noted that "fish
   consumption in Russia jumped up by 30 percent in 2009". In other words,
   said the Russian chief fisherman, "in the 1990s, the country's population
   was switching over from meat to noodles, while now population is turning
   to consumption of fish and marine goods and, it is safe to say, population
   is switching over from meat to fish".(Description of Source: Moscow
   ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)

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   66) Back to Top
   Russian media industry honours top executives - RIA-Novosti
   Sunday July 11, 2010 11:34:16 GMT
   Excerpt from report by Russian state news agency RIA NovostiMoscow, 8
   July: Konstantin Ernst, director-general of (state-controlled) Channel One
   TV, Andrey Vasilyev, editorial director at the Kommersant publishing
   house, and Vladislav Surkov, the Russian president's first deputy
   chief-of-staff, have been named among the Russian Federation's best media
   managers of the past decade, RIA Novosti's correspondent reports from the
   "Russian Media Manager 2010" awards ceremony.The prize was instituted in
   2001 in order to promote the most significant events and trends in the
   media industry. It is organized by the MediaHouse publishing house and the
   Novosti SMI trade magazine, with support from the Guild of Press
   Publishers, the National Association of Television and Radio Broadcasters,
   the Press Distributors Association and others.On the occasion of the
   prize's 10th anniversary, the 10 best media ma nagers among winners from
   previous years were honoured. Apart from Ernst, Vasilyev and Surkov, the
   list included Roman Petrenko, director-general of (Gazprom-owned
   entertainment channel) TNT; Sergey Arkhipov, head of the radio
   broadcasting directorate at (the state media conglomerate) VGTRK; and
   Sergey Vasilyev, president of (ad sales house) Video International.The
   director-general of Komsomolskaya Pravda Novosibirsk (Galina Popova),
   Viktor Loshak, editor-in-chief of the Ogonek magazine, and Vera Orlova,
   editor-in-chief of the weekly "Sem Dney TV-Programma", won "Russian Media
   Manager 2010" awards in the print media category. Anton Kudryashov,
   director-general of STS-Media, Radik Batyrshin, chairman of the Mir
   international television and radio broadcasting company, and Leonid
   Bershidskiy, editor-in-chief of Slon.ru, won awards in the electronic
   media category.Among those to be given awards "for contributions to the
   industry's development" were Andrey Smirnov, president of Sistema
   Mass-Media; Sergey Pilatov, vice-president of the Russian Association of
   Communication Agencies; and Sergey Zverev, president of the Public Affairs
   and Public Relations Company.Artemiy Inyutin, director-general of the RBK
   Media holding company, Yuriy Kostin, president of the Prof-Media
   broadcasting corporation; and Denis Krylov, director-general of the
   Siberian Agency Ekspress, also received awards.Among those nominated this
   year were Natalya Loseva, head of internet projects at (state news agency)
   RIA Novosti, and Aleksey Pankin, a columnist on RIA Novosti's
   website.(Passage omitted: other background about the prize)(Description of
   Source: Moscow RIA-Novosti in Russian -- Government information agency,
   part of the state media holding company; located at www.rian.ru)

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   67) Back to Top
   RF, Vietnam Sign Documents On Developing Cooperation In Oil &amp;amp; Gas -
   ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 11:24:10 GMT
   intervention)

   MOSCOW, July 11 (Itar-Tass) - Secretary general of the Central Committee
   of the Vietnamese Communist Party Nong Duc Manh participated on Sunday in
   a signing ceremony of three documents on developing cooperation in the oil
   and gas sphere between the Russian Zarubezhneft Company and Vietnamese
   PetroVietnam Corporation.Following the signing of the documents, Nong Duc
   Manh noted that the joint enterprise Vietsovpetro, established by the
   Russian Zarubezhneft Company and the Vietnamese PetroVietnam Corporation
   in 1981, "is, as before, the key producer of oil and gas in Vietnam,
   recovering 40 recent of the total oil and gas production in the
   country."It annually contributes 18 percent to the Vietnamese GDP and is
   responsible for 25-30 percent of total revenues of the state." He also
   emphasised that Vietsovpetro has made a huge contribution to training
   personnel in Vietnam and Russia over the 30 years of its operation".
   Vietnam "has created the backbone for the entire oil and gas industries
   thanks to the operation of this enterprise, and many leaders not only of
   the industry, but of the Vietnamese state also came from
   Vietsovpetro".According to Nong Duc Manh, Russia and Vietnam do not limit
   their cooperation in the oil and gas sphere only to one joint venture, but
   "launch cooperation in Russia and third countries". For instance
   Rusvietpetro joint venture, set up in July 2008, plans to produce the
   first tonne of oil in the third quarter of this year".(Description of
   Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main go vernment information
   agency)

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   68) Back to Top
   Pyongyang Ready To Resume 6-Party Talks
   Report by Kim Young-jin, staff reporter - The Korea Times Online
   Sunday July 11, 2010 10:43:37 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul The Korea Times Online in English -- Website
   of The Korea Times, an independent and moderate English-language daily
   published by its sister daily Hanguk Ilbo from which it often draws
   articles and translates into English for publication; URL:
   http://www.koreatimes.co.kr)

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   69) Back to Top
   Iranian Commander Warns Russia Against Western Propaganda - Fars News
   Agency
   Sunday July 11, 2010 09:41:58 GMT
   Forces Deputy Chief of Staff for Cultural Affairs and Defence Publicity
   Brigadier General Mas'ud Jazayeri, in which Jazayeri warned Russia to
   avoid following the West's "false" reports.

   Jazayeri reacted to claims by a Russian analyst who had said: "The United
   States and Israel are preparing for an air attack on Iran's nuclear
   installation," by saying: "The Russians would better seriously avoid such
   false and problematic reports."Jazayeri said that Iran has never been in a
   bett er state of military readiness, adding: "Iran's armed forces equipped
   with advanced equipment are capable of safeguarding the country's land,
   sea and air borders in complete control and the best possible
   way."Jazayeri added: "Basically, the publication of military threats
   against Iran is the continuation of the same scenario which aims to convey
   that the region and Iran is going trough unrest or even crisis."Jazayeri
   said: "Iran has passed the stage of threats and decisions and as a major
   power before showing off its hardware to other countries would rather
   propagate peace and justice through religious teachings."Jazayeri said
   that Iran is not a country that would change its macro policies because of
   such reports, adding: "Besides, our enemies' problems are more than meet
   the eye."Jazayeri said that such remarks and provocations are part of a
   psychological warfare, adding: Of course, we should bear in mind that one
   of the requirements of a psychological war is to know and understand the
   mentality of the target country and fortunately our enemies are deprived
   of this opportunity and even their repeated claims have become
   sickening."In conclusion, Jazayeri said: "How could the Americans, who
   cannot tolerate an oil leak in the sea, withstand horrendous military
   storms?"No further processing.(Description of Source: Tehran Fars News
   Agency in Persian -- hardline pro-Ahmadinezhad news agency; headed as of
   December 2007 by Hamid Reza Moqaddamfar, who was formerly an IRGC cultural
   officer; www.fars.ir)

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   70) Back to Top
   Russian politicians highly sceptical about new oppositi on party -
   Interfax
   Sunday July 11, 2010 09:08:42 GMT
   Excerpt from report by corporate-owned Russian news agency InterfaxMoscow,
   10 July: The opposition movement Solidarnost (Solidarity) believes that
   The Other Russia party, which is being created by politician and writer
   Eduard Limonov, will remain his personal project. The Yabloko party does
   not believe that Limonov no longer holds radical views. The founding
   congress of the new party The Other Russia was held in Moscow today. It is
   being created from the remains of the opposition coalition which had the
   same name. Activists of The Other Russia are preparing official
   registration documents which they will submit to the Ministry of Justice.
   (passage omitted)"This is Limonov's personal project. It has no
   ideological basis or strong supporters," former Deputy Prime Minister and
   one of the leaders of the opposition Solidarnost m ovement Boris Nemtsov
   told Interfax today."The new party is based on the coalition The Other
   Russia, which is a very mixed bunch. The Other Russia united people of
   very different and sometimes diametrically opposed political views. There
   were the National Bolsheviks, nationalists, liberals, social democrats,
   and socialists. I can firmly say that there are no such parties in the
   world. A party brings together people who are at least ideologically not
   so far away from each other. What is in common between the liberals,
   nationalists and socialists? Nothing, I think," Nemtsov said."Of course, I
   wish Limonov success in this endeavour. However, party-building should be
   based on some ideological principles, not only on hatred for the
   authorities," the politician said. "If Limonov succeeds, that would be
   great. The more parties there are around, the better. However, we do not
   see Limonov being engaged in party building. He sees himself as a leader,
   whereas w e believe that searching for a leader is harmful and
   premature."He noted that Solidarnost is cooperating with the coalition The
   Other Russia in Moscow, St Petersburg and other cities in actions in
   defence of Article 31of the Constitution on the freedom of rallies and
   marches. However, Nemtsov said Limonov's supporters represent an
   "undemocratic organization". "We cannot cooperate with them on the party
   level, only in terms of some actions. Everything that concerns the
   protection of democracy and human rights is a common cause," Nemtsov
   said.The leaders of the Yabloko party do not believe that Limonov has
   become a democrat and rejected his nationalist and communist
   views."Creating a new party is almost always good. The only thing is that
   the party should distance itself from National-Bolshevism, which was often
   proclaimed by Limonov's supporters. Nationalism and Bolshevism were the
   greatest evils for Russia and the world in the 20th century," ; member of
   the political committee of the Yabloko party Sergey Ivanenko told Interfax
   today.When asked if he believed that Limonov had rejected his radical
   views, Ivanenko said: "This question is for him. We met with Limonov, but
   he is still standing under the colours which resemble the swastika." "They
   are not people from nowhere. I find it difficult to believe that one can
   so quickly and decisively change one's views. The question is what
   programme this party is putting forward and to what extent its practical
   actions will correspond to the programme. Saying democratic slogans is not
   enough. Nationalists and Bolsheviks almost always come to power under
   democratic slogans," Ivanenko said.(Description of Source: Moscow Interfax
   in Russian -- Nonofficial information agency known for its extensive and
   detailed reporting on domestic and international issues)

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   71) Back to Top
   Turnout At Polls To Japan Upper Chamber Higher Than 3 Years Ago -
   ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 08:26:19 GMT
   intervention)

   TOKYO, July 11 (Itar-Tass) - The Sunday elections to the Japanese
   parliament upper chamber are more active than three years ago.According to
   data of Japanese authorities, 27.81 percent of voters already went to the
   polls over seven hours of work of polling stations that opened at 07.00.
   This is slightly more than at the previous polls to the same chamber in
   2007.The voting was delayed by foul weather in several southern Japanese
   districts. For instance polling stations opened 10 to 60 minutes later on
   Tsushima Isla nd, Nagasaki prefecture. Members of election commissions
   could not open doors of polling stations, since roads to them turned to be
   under water because of a torrential rain. However, authorities note that
   the elections are passing without special problems on the
   whole.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main
   government information agency)

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   72) Back to Top
   Official Says DPRK Apology, Denuclearization Pledge Key to Nuclear Talks
   Updated version: upgrading precedence, revising headline and adding
   referent items; Yonhap headline: "N.K. Apology, Denuclearization Pledge
   Key to Nuclear Talks: Official" - Yonhap
   Sunday July 11, 2010 08:03:05 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

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   73) Back to Top
   Russian Carrier Puts Smoothly Into Orbit US Telecom Satellite - ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 07:31:47 GMT
   intervention)

   MOSCOW, July 11 (Itar-Tass) - A Russian Proton-M launch vehicle, blasted
   off from the Baikonur cosmodrome on Saturday evening, smoothly put into a
   targeted orbit the US telecom EchoStar- 15 satellite, Itar-Tass learnt
   from press secretary of the Khrunichev Space Centre Alexander
   Bobrenev.According to the press secretary, "the spacecraft EchoStar-15
   detached from the Briz-M booster at 07.54 MT". The satellite will operate
   at a sub-satellite point 61.5 degrees western longitude in a geostationary
   orbit.The EchoStar-15 spacecraft was developed by the Space Systems Loral
   Company on orders of a satellite communication operator of the EchoStar
   Company to work in the interests of the American TV company DISH Network
   whose services are enjoyed by 14 million televiewers in the US. The
   designed period of operation in orbit - 15 years. The satellite's mass -
   5,540 kilos. It is equipped with 32 transponders.The Proton-M carrier and
   the Briz-M booster are manufactured by the Khrunichev Space Centre. It is
   a three-stage missile, liquid with the takeoff weight of 700 tonnes. The
   International Launch Services Company (ILS) is engaged in marketing
   Protons on the ma rket of space services. The control interest in the
   company is owned by the Khrunichev centre.The centre noted that the
   Saturday launch was the seventh for the Proton-M carrier in 2010 and 358th
   in its flight history. It was the fifth for ILS in 2010 and 61st since the
   start of commercial operation of Protons in April 1996.(Description of
   Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   74) Back to Top
   Six Blasts Of TV &amp;amp; Radio Stations Committed In Kabardino-Balkaria -
   ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 07:53:58 GMT
   intervention)
   NALCHIK, July 11 (Itar-Tass) - Six blasts of TV and radio broadcasting
   stations were committed overnight in various districts of the
   Kabardino-Balkar Republic, Itar-Tass learnt from a source at law
   enforcement bodies.According to the source, two TV and radio relay
   stations were blasted in the Elbrus district, in the area of the
   Tyrnauzsky ore-concentration combine as well as in the village of Terskol.
   Arsonists lit fire to relation stations in the village of Sarmakovo,
   Zolsky district, as well as in the city of Baksan."A car was exploded in
   the city of Chegem, and flames leaped to the nearby Nebo (Sky) nightclub.
   There were nobody at the club at the time; there were no casualties, but
   owners suffered considerable material damage," the source noted. All the
   cases are being investigated.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in
   English -- Main government information agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source ci ted. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   75) Back to Top
   Two Policemen Injured in Blast in Makhachkala - ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 07:31:47 GMT
   entrance to an Orthodox cemetery in Makhachkala on Sunday morning, a city
   police told Itar-Tass.

   A driver and a dog training instructor were injured in the blast. The
   explosion was so powerful that it almost completely destroyed the
   car.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government
   information agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept . of
   Commerce.

   76) Back to Top
   N.K. Apology, Denuclearization Pledge Key to Nuclear Talks: Official -
   Yonhap
   Sunday July 11, 2010 07:21:39 GMT
   Koreas-nuclear talks

   N.K. apology, denuclearization pledge key to nuclear talks: officialSEOUL,
   July 11 (Yonhap) -- North Korea should first apologize or acknowledge its
   responsibility for the sinking of a South Korean warship and show its
   willingness to give up its atomic programs if it wants to resume six-party
   nuclear talks, a senior official said Sunday.Pyongyang's foreign ministry
   said Saturday it will "make consistent efforts" to conclude a peace treaty
   and resume six-party nuclear talks. The comment came in response to the
   U.N. Security Council's adoption of a presidential statement on the ship
   sinking.The Council sta tement did not directly blame the North for the
   sinking, though it implied Pyongyang's responsibility indirectly. The
   North's reaction to the U.N. measure suggests that the communist nation
   sees the statement as not as bad as it had expected."It looks like North
   Korea is looking for a way out," a senior South Korean government official
   told reporters on condition of anonymity. The North's foreign ministry
   reaction and its offer of military talks with the U.S.-led United Nations
   Command can be seen in that context, the official said.But the official
   also stressed that Pyongyang should first create an atmosphere for
   resuming the stalled nuclear talks that involve the two Koreas, China,
   Japan, Russia and the United States. The on-again-off-again talks have
   been stalled since the last meeting in late 2008."North Korea should first
   apologize for the Ch'o'nan (Cheonan) case or acknowledge its
   responsibility and show its willingness to denuclearize to make it possibl
   e for the six party talks to resume," the official said."Sincerity and
   trustworthiness are important for resuming the talks," he said. "This is a
   matter of willingness. If it is willing (to apologize) it can do so in
   whatever way."North Korea has used its participation in nuclear talks
   itself as a negotiating card. It has been a standard pattern of North
   Korean behavior to raise tensions with provocations and then return to the
   dialogue table to get concessions it wants before backtracking on
   agreements and quitting the talks.That's why South Korea, the U.S. and
   other nations have stressed the importance of the North showing sincere
   willingness to give up its nuclear programs before agreeing to reopen the
   nuclear talks that began in 2003."It's time for the North to respond," the
   official said. "The ball is in North Korea's court."(Description of
   Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news agency of the ROK;
   URL: http://en glish.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   77) Back to Top
   Two Manned Submersibles to Be Supplied to Russian Navy Before End of 2010
   - Interfax
   Sunday July 11, 2010 07:22:40 GMT
   KALININGRAD. July 11 (Interfax-AVN) - The Russian Navy plans to acquire
   two manned submersibles, "Rus" and "Konsul," before the end of 2010, head
   of the Defense Ministry's Main Directorate for Deep-water Research Rear
   Admiral Alexei Burilichev told journalists on Thursday."Before the end of
   this year, we will have two manned submersibles, one of which, "Rus," has
   already been tested, and the second one, "Konsul," is still undergoing
   tests. Both vehicles are capable of submerging and working at the depth of
   6,000 meters," Burilichev said."Konsul" is undergoing successful tests on
   board the Baltic Fleet's SS-750 emergency rescue ship, the crew of which
   has experience in working with manned submersibles, he said."Rus" has
   already entered service despite failing to submerge to the maximum depth,
   the admiral said. However, "very soon all defects that caused this failure
   will be removed," Burilichev said.The "Rus" and "Konsul" vehicles will be
   able to work from the Project 22010 "Yantar" oceanographic vessel, the
   construction of which began at the Baltic Shipyard "Yantar" (PSZ,
   Kaliningrad), Burilichev said.The efficiency of the submersibles is
   significantly enhanced thanks to the installed small unmanned submersibles
   ("Rupor-6000" type minirovers) whic h are operated by hydronauts.kk(Our
   editorial staff can be reached at
   eng.editors@interfax.ru)Interfax-950040-HTXQCBAA

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   78) Back to Top
   North Korea For Developing Cooperation With UN Population Fund - ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 05:57:06 GMT
   intervention)

   PYONGYANG, July 11 (Itar-Tass) - North Korea will consolidate cooperation
   with various international organisations, including the UN Population Fund
   (UNFPA), said here representative of the national centre for population
   census Jung Song-Il.He made this statement in connection with World
   Population Da y, marked this Sunday.According to Jung Song-Il, North Korea
   signed an agreement in 1985 on cooperation with the UNFPA which "has made
   a great contribution to training population experts and the development of
   the public health system". Fund officers participated in the censuses in
   1993 and 2008 that "were carried out on a scientific basis in compliance
   with world standards and encompassed all citizens, irrespective of their
   sex and age".The representative also noted that the North Korean
   government carried out a nation-wide check-up of the health of pregnant
   women, which is in line with the targets of the UN Millennium Declaration.
   A regular plan of cooperation between North Korea and the UNFPA is now
   drafted for 2011-2013.According to the 2008 census, 23.34 million people
   live in North Korea.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English --
   Main government information agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   79) Back to Top
   New Baltic Sea navigation rules prompted by Arctic Sea hijack - Russian
   official - Interfax
   Sunday July 11, 2010 05:57:06 GMT
   Russian official

   Excerpt from report by corporate-owned Russian news agency
   InterfaxKaliningrad, 8 July: The hijacking of the cargo vessel Arctic Sea
   (in summer 2009) has showed that the international system of ensuring safe
   navigation in the Baltic Sea requires more development, the (Federal)
   Border Guard Service of the Russian Federation's FSB (Federal Security
   Service) has said."The capture of the Arctic Sea has shown that threats to
   safe seafaring exist even in the Baltic Sea, where the system of ensuring
   it seems to have been perfected," Capt Mikhail Karpenko, deputy head of
   the FSB's Border Guard Directorate for Kaliningrad Region and commander of
   the international exercise of the Baltic Sea coast guard troops, told
   journalists.This is why the region's countries today are practising an
   improved plan of navigation in the framework of the Baltic Sea Region
   Border Control Cooperation (BSRBCC), he added.In particular, he said that
   "a system that will allow to carry out permanent control over all vessels
   in the Baltic waters is being introduced"."All yachts and small vessels
   will have to be added to it this year. Their location will be determined
   in an automated mode," Karpenko said."The coordinating centres for safe
   seafaring of the region's countries will swiftly respond to all unexpected
   stops of vessels and deviations from specified routes. Moreover, an
   international exchange of information on all vessels that violat ed rules
   of safe navigation will be carried out. There are 12 of them in the Baltic
   Sea region today," the officer said.He also said that the international
   exercise of the coast guard troops of the Baltic Sea countries will be
   aimed at improving the system of safe seafaring. (Passage
   omitted)(Description of Source: Moscow Interfax in Russian -- Nonofficial
   information agency known for its extensive and detailed reporting on
   domestic and international issues)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   80) Back to Top
   Russian Mailmen Mark Their Professional Holiday - ITAR-TASS
   Sunday July 11, 2010 05:08:52 GMT
   intervention)

   MOSCOW, July 11 (Itar-Tass) - Russian workers of the postal service mark
   their professional holiday this Sunday. The Day of Russian Mail has been
   marked annually on second Sunday of July since 1994.The history of the
   Russian postal service numbers over 1,000 years. The Russian postal
   service is one of the oldest in Europe. This industry continues now to
   develop dynamically, seeking to go abreast with time and not to lag behind
   new technologies.The postal service which encompassed disintegrated postal
   agencies of the country in 2003, numbers now 86 branches in various parts
   of the country and 42,000 postal facilities with a payroll of 415,000
   officers. Mailmen receive, process and deliver annually over 1.5 billion
   letters, 48 million parcels and over 190 million remittances.The postal
   service offers its clients more than 80 postal, financial and information
   services, including an access to Internet. "The postal communication
   remains, as be fore, the most wide-spread and accessible means of
   relations between people, divided by borders and distances," noted
   director-general of the Russian postal service Alexander Kiselev in his
   address to workers of the industry on the occasion of the holiday."Our
   service is changing now: we boost the range of services, introduce new
   technologies and raise the level of postal service," he noted. According
   to Kiselev, the service is turning into "an invest-appealing and
   commercially successful company", which is corroborated by net profit,
   received by the results of 2009."The industry has become profitable for
   the first time in many years, netting in 306 million roubles. In 2010, the
   service plans to boost its revenues by 13 percent."Our main task now is to
   make postal services not only accessible, but also qualitatively high,
   corresponding to the best modern standards," the service head noted. The
   industry has already made the first steps on the road of modernisation:
   last year, it put into operation the country's first automated sorting-out
   centre in the Moscow Region, permitting to cut considerably the time of
   delivering mail in the Central Federal District.The project for
   reconstructing local postal offices has been resumed. Besides, it is
   planned to set up a banking system, based on the country's main postal
   centre. The system will eclipse Sberbank (Eds: the largest bank in Russia)
   in its scale. However, dates of establishing the bank are constantly
   shifted on.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main
   government information agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   81) Back to Top
   Blast derails freight train in Russia's Dagestan - NTV
   Sunday July 11, 2010 05:08:52 GMT
   Text of report by Gazprom-owned Russian NTV on 11 July(Presenter) A
   freight train has been blown up in Dagestan. It derailed almost
   completely, 13 of its carriages toppled over. Our correspondent in the
   region Omar Magomedov has the details.(Correspondent) The incident took
   place at about 0415 (local time, 0015 gmt), at the Achi-Isberbash section
   of the North Caucasus Railway's Makhachkala branch. The blast derailed 16
   carriages of a freight train; 13 of them toppled over. Fortunately, nobody
   was killed or injured. The tracks are partially damaged. The blast left a
   small crater 30 cm deep.The train is reported to have been carrying a
   freight of grain to the town of Derbent. Explosives experts are working at
   the scene, the area is being searched for possible explosive devices.
   Investigative procedures are being ca rried out.Two repair trains have
   been sent to the scene from Derbent and Makhachkala. According to the
   Emergencies Ministry's Main Directorate for the Republic of Dagestan,
   traffic at the damaged railway section is expected to be restored only in
   the evening.(Description of Source: Moscow NTV in Russian -- Gazprom-owned
   TV network broadcasting to most of Russia; more independent than
   state-owned channels but still often restrained in covering controversial
   topics)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.
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  <doc>
    <id>841479</id>
    <title>USA/UNITED STATES/AMERICAS
</title>
    <description>   Table of Contents for United States

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   1) Minsk Group Co-Chairs issue statement .::. The Armenian News by A1
   2) OSCE Minsk Group Co-chairs Urge Baku, Yerevan to Work Harder For
   Nagorno-karabakh Settlement
   3) NGO Praises US Ambassador's Contribution to Albania's Democracy, Free
   Speech
   Report by E. Gjikolli: "John L. Withers II, Model of Courage, Integrity"
   4) Russia-Georgia Relations, Prospects for Restoring Contacts With
   Abkhazia and South Ossetia Examined
   Interview with Temur Iakobashvili, deputy chairman of the Georgian
   Government and state minister for reintegration, by Vremya Novostey
   correspondent Mikhail Vignanskiy; place and date not given: "Temur
   Iakobashvili: 'Georgia Has To Forget About Russia for a While'"
   5) Website Says World Situation Demands Russia and US Be Allies
   Article by Aleksandr Mozgovoy: "Where Should Allies Be Found""
   6) RF Backs Abkhazia/S Ossetia Participation In Geneva Discussions
   7) Xinhua 'Analysis': Why Most Pakistanis Label U.S. 'Enemy' Despite
   Alliance
   Xinhua "Analysis" by Matthew Rusling : "Why Most Pakistanis Label U.S.
   'Enemy' Despite Alliance"
   8) Moscow Calls U.S. State Dept Compliance Report Biased (Part 2)
   9) Moscow Calls U.S. State Dept Compliance Report Biased (Part 2)
   10) The Reality of Egypt, a View From the Opposite Sex
   "The Reality of Egypt, a View From the Opposite Sex" -- The Daily Star
   Headline
   11) Tengizchevroil Increases H1 Oil Production 22.5%
   12) King Abdullah, Assad Declare United Support for Lebanon's Stability
   "King Abdullah, Assad Declare United Support for Lebanon's Stability" --
   The Daily Star Headline
   13) &lt; a href="#t13"&gt;Us Official Says Relations With Russia Benefits
   Central Europe
   "Us Official Says Relations With Russia Benefits Central Europe" -- KUNA
   Headline
   14) Egyptian, Saudi Officials Cited Egyptian-Saudi summit Talks in Sharm
   Al-Shaykh
   The Peace Process and the Situation in Lebanon on Top of Issues Discussed
   by the Saudi-Egyptian Summit  Al-Hayah headline
   15) Iranian State-Run TV Divulges Tehran's Readiness To Resume Nuclear
   Talks
   16) Two Americans Killed in Airblues Flight ED 202 on 28 July 2010
   AFP report: Two Americans among 152 killed in Airblue plane crash
   17) Nobility And Criminality in War
   "Nobility And Criminality in War" -- Jordan Times Headline
   18) Bangladesh Immigration Police Bar BNP Leader Shamsher Mobin From
   Flying to US
   Unattributed report: Mobin Barred From Going Abroad
   19) EU Asks Zimbabwean Firms To Apply on 'Individual Basis' for Sanctions'
   Removal
   Report by Samantha Chidzero: "EU Set To Remove Sanctions on Individual
   Basis"
   20) Policy 'Makeovers' May Cause Loss in Supporter Base
   "Viewpoint" column by Yi Jung-jae, business editor of the JoongAng Sunday;
   Translation by the JoongAng Daily staff: "Presidential Makeovers Good and
   Bad"
   21) Int'l Modern Dance Competition to Open in Seoul
   22) Xinhua 'Analysis': 'British New PM Angers Israelis, Palestinians'
   Xinhua "Analysis" by David Harris: "British New PM Angers Israelis,
   Palestinians"
   23) Xinhua 'Interview': China Shows Strong Resolve To Develop Clean
   Energy: ITER
   Xinhua "Interview": "China Shows Strong Resolve To Develop Clean Energy:
   ITER"
   24) S. Korea's Share of Int'l Fusion Reactor Cost to Top 1 Tln Won
   25) Iraq War Inquiry To Resume Public Hearings
   "Iraq War Inquiry To Resume Public Hearings" -- KUNA Headline
   26) Al-Shabaab Vows To Make Mogadishu 'Graveyard' for Additional AU Troops
   27) Commentary Questions Credibility of AU's Role in Africa's Development
   Commentary by Charles Onyango-Obbo: "Scrap the AU! Africa Might Be Better
   Off Without It"
   28) WWP Article on Increasing Military Moves in PRC Off-Shore Waters
   Article by Chi Shuo-ming: "US Factor Causes Rising Strategic Military
   Deterrence Everywhere"
   29) ROK's Yonhap: US Urges Burma To Abide by UN Sanctions on DPRK
   Yonhap headline: "U.S. Urges Myanmar to Abide By U.N. Sanctions on N.
   Korea: State Dept." by Hwang Doo-hyong
   30) North Korean Foreign Minister Begins Visit With Tour of Shwedagon
   Pagoda
   Report by Joseph Allchin: "N Korean visit clouded in secrecy"; For
   assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at (800) 205-8615 or
   OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   31) North Korean Foreign Minister Visits Burma; US 'Concerned' by Military
   Ties
   AFP Report: "N Korean FM in Myanmar Amid Nuclear Worries"
   32) Cambodian National Bank Intervenes To Stabilize Currency in First Half
   of 2010
   Report by Poeusda: "Cambodian National Bank Uses 240.58 Thousand Million
   Riel To Save the Riel Currency"
   33) Russia's Arctic shelf expedition is of state importance - presidential
   envoy
   34) Roundtable Panelists View Afghanistan, Iran Situations
   Figures indicate program running time. For a video of this program,
   contact GSG_GVP_VideoOps@rccb.osis.gov or, if you do not have e-mail, the
   OSC Customer Center at (800) 205-8615. Selected video is also available on
   OpenSource.gov.
   35) RSA Writer Views 1st Pr eparatory Committee Meeting for Arms Trade
   Treaty
   Commentary by Dominique Dye: "Moving Forward on an Arms Trade Treaty"
   36) Expert Says Ugandan Bomb Attacks Show US 'Uncertainty' To Tackle
   Somali Crisis
   Report by Kevin J. Kelley: "Kampala Twin Attacks Expose US Uncertainty
   Over Somalia"
   37) Writer Criticizes US President Obama for 'Racial Skittishness'
   Article by Jacob Dlamini: "Hung Out to Dry by Obamas Racial Skittishness"
   38) Luring Chinese Tourists
   39) Thailand 'Likely' To End Emergency Rule in Six Provinces Excluding
   Bangkok
   AFP Report: "Thailand Likely To End Emergency Rule in Six Areas --
   Minister"
   40) Playing Three-Ball Billiards in Beirut
   "Playing Three-Ball Billiards in Beirut" -- The Daily Star Headline
   41) DPRK Party Organ Lauds Leader's 'Guts' on Warship 'Ch'o'nan,' '
   Pueblo,' Other Incidents
   Article by reporter Cho'n Yo'ng-hu'i: "Outstanding Leadership That Has
   Embroidered the Victorious History With Matchless Gallantry and Guts"; The
   author's title in the byline provided by KPM may be different from that
   which appears in hard copy
   42) US Urges PRC To Press DPRK To Stop Provocations, Abide by
   Denuclearization Pledge
   Updated version: "UPDATES with more details, background at bottom" per
   2237 GMT source update; Yonhap headline: "China Urged to Press N. Korea to
   Stop Provocations, Abide By Denuclearization Pledge: State Dept." by Hwang
   Doo-hyong
   43) China Remains Vigilant of US-ROK Military Drills
   Article by Li Daguang, professor of the National Defense University:
   "US-ROK Joint Military Exercise Was Eventually Started"
   44) Xinhua 'Analysis': British PM Visit To India Focuses on Developing
   Economic And Trade Ties
   Xinhua &amp;quo t;Analysis" by Wu Qiang : "British PM Visit To India Focuses
   on Developing Economic And Trade Ties"
   45) Software Push By University to Catch Up With U.S.
   46) Report Says US, India, Israel, Russia Working Against Pakistan
   Report by Javed Rashid: "1,200 RAW Operatives Asigned to Afghanistan To
   Carry Out Actions Against Pakistan"-- Words in quotation marks as
   published
   47) IMF Approves $15 Mln Stand-By Arrangement For Ukraine
   48) RMRB Interviews PRC Academic on 'Theory of China's Economic
   Responsibility'
   Report by Staff Reporter Cui Peng: "Renminbi Exchange Rate Has Not Been
   Undervalued! (Responding to the 'Theory of China's Economic
   Responsibility') -- Interview WithHe Weiwen, Director of the China-US
   Economics and Trade Research Center at University of International
   Business and Economics"
   49) ZTS Special Article Questions Mo tive of Exaggerating PRCs Naval
   Strength
   Special Article by Hong Kong ZTS contributing reporter Shi Ren: The
   Motive of Exaggerating Chinas Naval Strength Provides Much Food for
   Thought
   50) Pakistan Press Nawa-e Waqt 29 Jul 10
   To request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
   51) Xinhua 'Roundup': Vietnam To Host First ASEAN Defense Ministers'
   Meeting Plus in October
   Xinhua "Roundup": "Vietnam To Host First ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting
   Plus in October"
   52) Freed Dissident Arrives in US, Lashes Out Against Cuban Government
   "Freed Cuban dissident arrives in U.S." -- EFE Headline
   53) IMF Adopts $15 Bln Anti-crisis Support Program For Ukraine
   54) Pakistan Daily--ISI Must Clarify its Collusion With Afghan Taliban
   Editorial: Stunning Reticence
   55) PRC Expert on Role of Second Artillery in Countering US Encirclement
   Dispatch from Beijing news center by reporter Liu Yueh-shan: "Leading Role
   of Second Artillery in Defending China's Maritime Rights"
   56) Indian, Israeli Agencies Leaked Reports To Defame Country
   Report by Abdul Shakur Abi Hassan: "Secret Reports -- Israeli, Indian
   Agencies Played Significant Role"
   57) Commentary Says India Protesting 'Too Much' Against China-Pakistan
   Nuclear Deal
   Commentary by PR Chari: Is India Protesting too Much About the Sino-Pak
   Nuke Deal?
   58) NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 117 (July 29, 2010) -- NEWS IN BRIEF (3 of
   6)
   Yonhap headline: "NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 117 (July 29, 2010)"
   59) NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 117 (July 29, 2010) -- TOPIC OF THE WEEK (2
   of 6)
   Yonhap headline: "NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 117 (July 29, 2010)"
   60) US Must Assess Policy of Distrusting Pakistan, Focus To Stabilize
   Afghanistan
   Article by Asif Haroon Raja: Time for America To Introspect
   61) NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 117 (July 29) -- FOREIGN TIPS (5 of 6)
   Yonhap headline: "NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 117 (July 29)"
   62) DPRK KPA Vice Marshal Kim Yong Chun's 'Report' on War Victory
   Anniversary
   Text of "report" by Kim Yong Chun [Kim Yo'ng-ch'un], vice chairman of the
   DPRK National Defense Commission, minister of People's Armed Forces, and
   vice marshal of the Korean People's Army, at a central report meeting to
   mark the 57th anniversary of the victory of the great Fatherland
   Liberation War, held on 26 July at the Pyongyang Stadium -- recorded
   63) US Repeats Ch'o'nan Sunk by DPRK Torpedo, Dismisses Russian Claims of
   'Sea Mine'
   By Hwang Doo-hyong: "U.S. repeats Ch'o'nan [Cheonan] was sunk by N.
   Korea's torpedo: State Dept."
   64) PRC Expert Sees Warming Up of US-ROK Military Alliance
   By staff reporters Shi Shangyu and Zhang Xin, from Beijing, US-ROK
   Alliance Warms Up  Expert: The Trend is Worth Observation
   65) Us Says Corruption in Afghanistan Is 'An Ongoing Challenge'
   "Us Says Corruption in Afghanistan Is "An Ongoing Challenge"" -- KUNA
   Headline
   66) War Document Leaks Not Likely To Affect Pakistans 'Postures' on India
   Commentary by Vikram Sood, former head of the Research and Analysis Wing,
   Indias external intelligence agency: Night of the Generals
   67) Pakistan Army Chief ExtensionCivil Govt Caved In To Military
   Pressure
   Article by Saida Fazal: Weak Government, Strong Generals
   68) ROK 'Viewpoint' Column Urges ROK to Learn From UK Politician
   Wilberforce
   "Viewpoint" column by Park Sang-ik, professor of history educa tion at
   Woosuk University: "Summoning The Spirit of Wilberforce"
   69) Xinhua 'Interview': U.S. Solar Energy Technology Farther Advanced Than
   Other Countries: Expert
   Xinhua "Interview": "U.S. Solar Energy Technology Farther Advanced Than
   Other Countries: Expert"
   70) Pakistan Author Flays US-Based Indian Lobbies Idea of Division of
   Afghanistan
   Article by Saleem Safi: Division of Afghanistan?
   71) Pakistan Article Terms Reports Accusing ISI as Inconsistent,
   Fabricated
   Article by Ikram Sehgal: Here we go again!
   72) Afghan TV Program Debates Forthcoming Kabul Conference, Use of
   International Aid
   From the "De Owonay Bahs (Discussion of the Week)" program; for assistance
   with multimedia elements, contact the OSC Customer Center at (800)
   205-8615 or oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   73) JI Chief Says Pakistan Signed Afghan Transit Trade Treaty Under US
   Pressure
   Recorder report: Water dispute emerged due to Indian water aggression:
   Jamaat-e-Islami
   74) US Plan of Reconstruction Opportunity Zones in FATA Full of Flaws
   Report by Hamid Waleed: Absence of facilities makes proposed ROZs
   imperfect
   75) ROK Column Says 'Real Aftermath of Ch'o'nan Incident Has Only Just
   Begun'
   "Viewpoint" column by Oh Young-hwan, editor of foreign and security
   affairs at the JoongAng Ilbo: "Tough Diplomacy or Regime Change?"
   76) Russias Energy Cooperation With Iran Comes at 'Wrong Time'
   Commentary by Vladimir Radyuhin: The Russian-Iranian Road Map
   77) Yeni Ozgur Politika Headlines17 July 2010
   The following is a list of news headlines from the Yeni Ozgur Politika
   website on 17 July; to request additional processing, please contact OSC
   at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735, fax (703) 613-5735, or oscinfo@rc
   cb.osis.gov
   78) Arabic Daily Sees in Cameron's Remarks About Gaza Blockade Change in
   UK Policy
   Editorial: "Cameron and Awakening of Conscience"
   79) Russian Narcotics Problem Attributed to U.S. Failure To Curb Afghan
   Heroin
   Article by Yuriy Trofimov: "A Covering Force Against the Narcotics Threat"
   80) Macedonian Commentary Rejects ICJ Kosovo Verdict as Result of US
   'Pressure'
   Commentary by Straso Angelovski: "Noose Around European States' Neck"
   81) US Envoy's Remarks Trigger Kosovo Objections to Idea of Special Status
   for North
   Report by Arben Ahmeti: "Statements on North Disturb Prishtina"
   82) Russia Wants US To Focus On Afghan Terrorism, Illegal Drugs
   83) Russia is interested in USA's success in Afghanistan - official
   84) Danish Daily Says Wikileaks Documents Confirm Medi a Criticism of
   Afghanistan War
   Editorial by ts [Toger Seidenfaden]: "Wikileaks Yet Another Mess To
   Clean up for Obama; Afghanistan Rapidly Becoming a Serious Burden for the
   US President"
   85) Wikileaks Founder Expects Afghan War Revelations To Influence Future
   Decisions
   Telephone interview with Wikileaks founder Julian Assange in London by
   Fernando Navarro in Madrid on 28 July: "'We Provide Reliable Information
   Without Pursuing Commercial, Political Interests'"
   86) State Minister for Foreign Affairs Says US Entangled in Afghanistan
   Unattributed report: "US Will Not Be Able To Withdraw From Afghanistan
   Soon: Malik Ammad"-- All Words Within Double Quotation Marks, As Published
   87) Iranian Paper Warns of 'Strong Reaction' Against Any Military Action
   Editorial headlined "Washington's military threat and Iran's defense
   power"
   88) Former ISI Chief Says US Wants To Withdraw From Afghanistan
   Unattributed report: "Another 10,000 Page Report Regarding Afghanistan
   Will Soon Be Made Public -- Gen [ret] Hamid Gul"
   89) US Deputy SecState Says US-ROK Drills 'Direct Result' of PRC's Support
   for DPRK
   Report by Hwang Doo-hyong: "China's failure to blame N. Korea for Ch'o'nan
   [Cheonan] led to S. Korea-U.S. joint drills: Steinberg"
   90) America's Afghanistan Solution May Only Strengthen Pakistan
   "America's Afghanistan Solution May Only Strengthen Pakistan" -- The Daily
   Star Headline
   91) Cocaine Flow To Russia Increases By 25 Pct Annually - Source
   92) Afghan president, US Attorney General discuss corruption
   93) Afghan paper sees difficulties for Karzai in talks mediated by
   Pakistan's ISI
   94) Afghan daily sceptical about new US commander's success
   95) Afghan TV Program Reviews Efforts To Combat Narcotics Production,
   Smuggling
   From the "Mobahesa (Discussion)" program; for assistance with multimedia
   elements, contact the OSC Customer Center at (800) 205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   96) Afghan TV Program Debates Division of Power Between Presidency,
   Parliament
   From the "Hot Topics" program; for assistance with multimedia elements,
   contact the OSC Customer Center at (800) 205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   97) Afghan daily fears reversal of McChrystal approach to civilian
   casualties
   98) Paper urges Afghan government to take 'decisive' action, end war
   99) Abolition of AA And Conclusion of Peace Treaty to Replace It Demanded
   in S. Korea
   100) US Tracking DPRK's Money Flow for Sanctions
   Unattributed report: "U.S. Tracking N.Korea's Money Flow For Sanctions"
   101 ) UN Command, DPRK Begin 3rd Round of Talks Over Ship Sinking on 30
   Jul
   Updated version: upgrading precedence, revising headline, adjusting tags
   and adding referent items; Yonhap headline: "U.N. Command, N. Korea Begin
   Third Round of Talks Over Ship Sinking"
   102) Un Vote Declares Access To Water a Basic Human Right
   "Un Vote Declares Access To Water a Basic Human Right" -- The Daily Star
   Headline
   103) United States Seen Interfering in China's Islands Dispute With
   Neighbors
   Article by Vladimir Skosyrev: "United States Interferes in China's Dispute
   With Its Neighbors. Washington Seeks New Partners in Southeast Asia"
   104) Deputy USTR Says US-ROK FTA's Ratification to Enhance Exports, Jobs
   Updated version: Replacing 1642 GMT version with update provided by source
   at 2239 GMT; Following is source-supplied update to referent item; By
   Hwang Doo-hyong: " (LEAD) Korea FTA's ratification to enhance exports,
   jobs: Deputy USTR (ATTN: ADDS Rep. Levin's remarks in paras 11-12)," "(2nd
   LD) U.S. to focus on auto, beef in FTA negotiations: Kirk (ATTN: CHANGES
   headline, lead; ADDS remarks by Kirk throughout)"
   105) DAG Says No One in Custody Under Suspicion of Contact With Shehzad
   "Contact With Faisal Shehzad -- No One Is in Intelligence Agencies'
   Custody: Deputy Attorney General" -- Online headline
   106) PML Leader Says Army Chief's Service Extension Should Benefit People
   Unattributed report: "Army Chief Should Prove Extension Right By Taking
   Decisions In Interest Of Nation: Kabir Wasti"
   107) Nigerian Women's 100m Record Holder Aims Higher
   Xinhua: "Nigerian Women's 100m Record Holder Aims Higher"
   108) Xinhua 'Feature': Rain Dampens Rescue Efforts in Pakistani Plane
   Crash as Nation Mourns
   X inhua "Feature": "Rain Dampens Rescue Efforts in Pakistani Plane Crash
   as Nation Mourns"
   109) China Calls on US To Contribute To Bilateral Military Exchange
   Xinhua: "China Calls on US To Contribute To Bilateral Military Exchange"
   110) PRC Military Spokesman Calls On US to 'Handle Carefully' Sensitive
   Issues
   Updated version: rewording subject line for clarity, adding Urgent,
   Military topic tags; Xinhua: "China Calls on US To Contribute To Bilateral
   Military Exchange"
   111) Polish Special Forces Set To Join Elite NATO Club, Launch Recruitment
   Drive
   Report by Edyta Zemla: "Searching for Commandos"
   112) Peruvian President Announces Cancellation of US Mining Firm's License
   "Peru announces cancellation of U.S.-owned miner's license" -- EFE
   Headline
   113) Jbeil Church Renovated With US Heritage Aid"Jbeil Church Renovated
   With US Heritage Aid" -- The Daily Star Headline
   114) Experts See No Big US Arms Sales To Taiwan This Year
   Unattributed article from the "Taiwan" page: "Experts See No Big US Arms
   Sales To Taiwan This Year"
   115) 25 Years as An Executive in Korea
   116) Interior Ministry Defies LHC For Pleading Dr Aafias Case in US Court
   Report by Hamid Nawaz: Non-submission of documentary evidences: LHC seeks
   explanation from Secretary Interior Ministry
   117) Article Says Gen Kayani's Objective, Goal, Loyalties for Country
   Article by Nusrat Mirza: "General KayaniEndorsement of Service Extension"
   118) Wikileaks Propaganda Harmful For Pakistan-US Alliance: Foreign
   Affairs Secretary
   Recorder Report: Wikileaks propaganda a malicious attempt to defame
   Pakistan
   119) Pakistani Press Takbeer 17-23 Dec 2009
   To request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
   120) Mac Chairwoman To Speak On Ecfa In U.S.
   By Charles Kang and Fanny Liu
   121) Madrid to cooperate with Iraq death probe if judge requests it
   122) Spanish judge orders US soldiers' arrest over Iraq killing
   123) U.S. Gov't, Congress Leaders Call For Revision of FTA With Seoul
   124) S. Korea's Industrial Output Grows 16.9 Pct in June
   Updated version: "ADDS finance ministry's assessment of economic
   situations in 12-13 para" per 0103 GMT source update on 30 July; "ADDS
   details in 2nd para, other info from 4th para" per 0014 GMT source update
   on 30 July
   125) Tajik cotton blacklisted by USA
   126) No Software, No Future
   "Viewpoint" column by Lee Cheol-ho, an edi torial writer of the JoongAng
   Ilbo: "No Software, No Future"
   127) Push in US for Taiwan To Enter ICAO
   Unattributed article from the "Taiwan" page: "Push in US for Taiwan To
   Enter ICAO"
   128) Three Zimbabwean Youths To Attend Young African Leaders Forum in US
   From 3-5 Aug
   Report by Hendricks Chizhanje: "Zim Activists To Meet Obama"
   129) US Agency Says Working With Local Communities in Zimbabwe To Fight
   HIV/AIDS
   Report by Caroline Mvundura: "US Body Helps Communities Fight HIV/AIDS"
   130) PRC Holds Military Exercise in South China Sea 26 Jul; Pundits Blame
   US Actions
   By ZTS special correspondent Zhuang Jingqian: (Beijing Observations)
   China Accelerates Blue-Water Drive Under External Pressure
   131) Iranian Paper Says Secretary Clinton To Visit East Asia To Seek
   Allies
   Report by Faramarz Asghari: " ;Clinton's view on East"
   132) People's Daily Online: Is United States Ready To Recognize China as
   World Power?
   By Zhang Xinyi, People's Daily Online: "Is US ready to recognize China as
   world power?"
   133) DPRK Party Organ Criticizes US 'Deceptive' Advocacy of Nuclear
   Disarmament
   OSC plans to process the below Rodong Sinmun signed commentary as referent
   item; KCNA headline: "U.S. Deceptive Advocacy of 'Nuclear Disarmament'
   Flayed"
   134) UN Command, DPRK To Hold 'Third' Round of Talks on 30 Jul
   Yonhap headline: "U.N. Command, N. Korea to Hold Third Round of Talks
   Friday" by Kim Deok-hyun
   135) Pilot Error Blamed For F-5 Fighter Jet Crash in June
   136) Koreans in China Decry US-ROK Naval Exercises as Attempt to 'Ignite'
   War
   KCNA headline: "U.S. and Lee Myung Bak Group's Moves to Provoke Nuclear
   War Flailed"137) NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 117 (July 29, 2010) -- TOPIC
   OF THE WEEK (1 of 6)
   Yonhap headline: "NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 117 (July 29, 2010)"
   138) Court Bans LG Chem Scientist From Joining Foreign Rival
   139) 2nd LD Writethru: U.N. Command, DPRK Postpone Military Talks
   Xinhua: "2nd LD Writethru: U.N. Command, DPRK Postpone Military Talks"
   140) Former Kamran Naval Base Airport To Serve International Flights
   141) UNC Says 3rd Round of UN Command-DPRK Colonel-Level Meeting Postponed
   Xinhua "Urgent": "3rd Round of U.N. Command-DPRK Colonel-Level Meeting
   Postponed"
   142) ROK Activists in US to Voice Skepticism About DPRK Role in Ship's
   Sinking
   Updated version: Adjusting meta-data; Original headline: "In D.C., Liberal
   Civic Groups Get Cold-Shouldered"
   143) GM's V olt May Be Coming to Korea
   144) North Cyberattack Feared, Says Gov't
   145) Hidden Youth Unemployment
   146) PRC Economy Unlikely To Bottom Out in 2010, but Growth Expects To
   Decline
   To request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735; or email: oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   147) China Leads the World in Urbanization: Blue Paper
   Xinhua: "China Leads the World in Urbanization: Blue Paper"
   148) PRC's CICIR Expert Says Sanctions Drive Iran's Nuclear Fusion
   Research
   "Short Commentary" by Tian Wenlin, associate research fellow at the China
   Institutes of Contemporary International Relations: "Offense as Defense"
   149) Uncertain Oil Supply May Become New Risk for World Economy: Standard
   &amp;amp; Poor's
   Xinhua: "Uncertain Oil Supply May Become New Risk for World Ec onomy:
   Standard &amp;amp; Poor's"
   150) More on China Denying Forcing Foreign Firms To Transfer Technology
   151) WTO Backs China in Poultry Dispute With US
   152) Further on China Denying Forcing Foreign Firms To Transfer Technology
   153) China Denies Forcing Foreign Firms To Transfer Technology
   154) RMRB Signed Article Refutes 'Theory of China's Economic
   Responsibility'
   Article by Guo Jiping: "Theory of 'China's Economic Responsibility' Is
   Irresponsible"
   155) China To Fund Mega Tourism Project
   CMC Headline: "BAHAMAS-TOURISM-China To Fund Mega Tourism Project"
   156) Russian-US review of missile challenges to be finished by 2011 -
   official
   157) : Treaty Procedures for Mobile Land-Based ICBM Inspections Flawed
   Article by Midykhat Vildanov under "Realities" ru bric: "Blank Spots in
   START-3"
   158) Russian Stock Market Posts Gains on Thurs Spearheaded By Transneft
   Shares

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   1) Back to Top
   Minsk Group Co-Chairs issue statement .::. The Armenian News by A1 - A1+
   Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 09:27:32 GMT
   The Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, Ambassador Igor Popov of Russia,
   Bernard Fassier of France, and Robert Bradtke of the United States,
   released the following statement today:

   The OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs (Ambassador Bernard Fassier of France;
   Ambassador Robert Bradtke of the United States; Ambassador Igor Popov of
   the Russian Federation) met with the members of the Minsk Group July 28 in
   Vienna, Austria.

   They briefed the Minsk Group on recent developments in negotiations on the
   peaceful settlement o f the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, including:
   discussions held in St. Petersburg June 17, 2010 by the presidents of the
   Russian Federation, Armenia, and Azerbaijan; the meeting of the Heads of
   Delegation of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair countries with the Foreign
   Ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia July 17, 2010; and the joint
   statements issued by the Minsk Group Co-Chair countries in Muskoka and
   Almaty.

   The Co-Chairs stressed that the efforts made so far by the sides of the
   conflict have not been sufficient to overcome their differences, and that
   additional actions are needed to reinforce the ceasefire and demonstrate a
   spirit of compromise. To assist the parties in their efforts, the
   Co-Chairs plan to visit the region in early September.

   (Description of Source: Yerevan A1+ in English -- website of opposition
   A1+ Television taken off the air by the Armenian authorities in April
   2002; publishes news in brief, comments and interviews; URL: http://www.a1
   plus.am/en )

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   2) Back to Top
   OSCE Minsk Group Co-chairs Urge Baku, Yerevan to Work Harder For
   Nagorno-karabakh Settlement - Interfax
   Thursday July 29, 2010 08:22:56 GMT
   Nagorno-Karabakh settlement

   BAKU. July 29 (Interfax) - The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group will pay
   a visit to the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh in early September, it was
   announced after a meeting in Vienna."The co-chairs stressed that the
   efforts made so far by the sides of the conflict have not been sufficient
   to overcome their differences, and that additional actions are needed to
   reinforce the ceasefire and demonstrate a spirit of compromise," it said
   in a statement."To assist the parties in their efforts, the co-chairs plan
   to visit the region in early September," it says.The OSCE Minsk Group
   co-chairs ambassador Igor Popov of Russia, ambassador Bernard Fassier of
   France and ambassador Robert Bradtke of the U.S. informed the Minsk Group
   about the latest events in the negotiations on settling the conflict at
   the meeting in Vienna.Nagorno-Karabakh is located inside Azerbaijan but
   has a mainly ethnic Armenian population. It declared itself independent in
   1991 leading to a three-year war.Interfax-950215-EOKWCBAA

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   3) Back to Top
   NGO Praises US Ambassador's Contribution to Albania's Democracy, Free
   Speech
   Report by E. Gjikolli: "John L. Withers II, Model of Courage, Integrity" -
   ATA
   Thursday July 29, 2010 16:08:04 GMT
   The group of women's organizations held Thursday a ceremony to pay tribute
   to the contribution provided by outgoing Ambassador Withers.

   Withers did not take part in the event for health reasons. Mirela
   Arqimandriti, Executive Director of the Gender Alliance for Development
   Center, read a letter of thanks and gratitude to him.

   "The representatives of the organizations for the protection of the rights
   of women and children, as part of human rights, thank you for the
   excellent values shown in support of human rights," the letter says.

   The letter values the role of Withers and American people in consolidating
   democracy and the freedom of the speech in Alb ania.

   (Description of Source: Tirana ATA in English -- government press agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   4) Back to Top
   Russia-Georgia Relations, Prospects for Restoring Contacts With Abkhazia
   and South Ossetia Examined
   Interview with Temur Iakobashvili, deputy chairman of the Georgian
   Government and state minister for reintegration, by Vremya Novostey
   correspondent Mikhail Vignanskiy; place and date not given: "Temur
   Iakobashvili: 'Georgia Has To Forget About Russia for a While'" - Vremya
   Novostey Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 15:36:38 GMT
   (Vignanskiy) On this occa sion, the Abkhazians have for the first time
   declined to take part in the Geneva negotiations, voicing the complaint
   that the meetings are ineffective...

   (Iakobashvili) They are being crafty. They will take part -- it is just
   that the format will change somewhat and individual meetings will be held.

   (Vignanskiy) Abkhazia and South Ossetia want to sign agreements with
   Tbilisi on the non-resumption of war. They are saying that they are
   dissatisfied with the Geneva negotiations, insofar as the meetings are not
   producing a result...

   (Iakobashvili) This too is craftiness. A treaty on the non-use of force
   has already been signed (the Medvedev-Sarkozy agreement put an end to
   combat activity in August 2008 -- Ed.). Now Russia is attempting to
   portray the Abkhazians and Ossetians as independent players. But this will
   never happen. We did not fight against them, but with the Russian
   Federation. The Russians themselves want to extricate themselves from th e
   situation, to show that they are neutral. It is a trick that will not
   work! We are prepared once again to sign an agreement -- but with Russia.
   An agreement must have international guarantees.

   (Vignanskiy) How do you implement a new government strategy of engagement
   of Abkhazians and Ossetians without Russian participation, if you say that
   Moscow has complete control in Abkhazia and South Ossetia?

   (Iakobashvili) Our strategy has no relation to Russia. These are plans
   which concern our populace. Russia can impede their implementation, but in
   such event we will raise the issue on the level of international
   organizations. In general, I believe it would not be advisable for them to
   interfere, because if they do so, the Russians will get a negative
   reaction on the part of the population there. Why impede non-political
   aspects -- human contacts, trade, education, health care, culture, sports,
   the ecology, the establishment of joint enterprises? Our strate gy is
   oriented on ordinary people. I do not really understand why all of this
   would be blocked -- the movement of people, for example. A kilogram of
   tomatoes costs 2 lari (about $1.10 -- Ed.) at a bazaar in Zugdidi, but it
   is six times as much in Sukhumi. Abkhazia has experienced a failed tourist
   season. One of the reasons for this is high prices.

   It is not productive to emplace artificial economic obstacles. We are not
   recruiting anyone, not bribing anyone. We want to help our people. It is
   political aspects that are being discussed in Geneva. There is no mention
   in our concept of status or security. We must learn to separate politics
   from humanitarian issues.

   (Vignanskiy) Following the 2008 events, skepticism is strong in Abkhazia
   and South Ossetia with respect to any plans Georgia might have...

   (Iakobashvili) There is no skepticism there. People there are waiting.
   They want to be convinced of the degree to which the Georgian side intends
   to implement everythin g that has been noted. We will prove that we are
   serious!

   (Vignanskiy) And to this end Tbilisi is creating the Cooperation Agency
   and Trust Fund?

   (Iakobashvili) These instruments will help implement what we have planned.
   It is not donors that we need, but international partners. We cannot
   handle this alone. Consider, for example, the question of education in
   Europe and the United States. Or if we talk about relocations, situations
   where visas are required. We are happy that the European Union has
   responded approvingly to our concept. The world can share its experience.

   (Vignanskiy) The world is asking Georgia to straighten out its relations
   with Russia...

   (Iakobashvili) No one is asking anything. They are only saying that this
   would be a good thing. Naturally, we too want normal relations with Russia
   -- perhaps even more than Europe or the United States want this. We are
   neighbors, after all. But until Russia stops treating us like vassals,
   there will be problems.

   (Vignanskiy) President Mikhail Saakashvili recently stated that Georgia is
   prepared for dialogue with Russia...

   (Iakobashvili) We have a minister of foreign affairs who is quite well
   known in Russian diplomatic circles. They know him personally. They trust
   him. If there is a desire on the part of the Russian side to engage in
   dialogue, they know the address and the phone number to call. We can talk
   about everything except for two things: the sovereignty and the
   territorial integrity of Georgia. We do not bargain over this. We do not
   discuss these questions.

   (Vignanskiy) Are intermediaries needed for negotiations between Russia and
   Georgia?

   (Iakobashvili) Time will tell. If they are needed, they will become
   available. If we are going to hold an objective discussion, I think that
   at some time intermediaries will be necessary, because the level of trust
   between the two sides is zero .

   (Vignanskiy) What do you have to say about the first visits of the
   presidents of Abkhazia and South Ossetia to Nicaragua and Venezuela, which
   took place a few days ago? After all, together with the Republic of Nauru
   they recognized the independence of these states after Russia did so...

   (Iakobashvili) We are happy to see the money of Russian taxpayers being
   used to pay for the vacations of 40 Abkhazians and 40 Ossetians in Latin
   American countries. All of this is for internal use. Abkhazians and
   Ossetians actually understand that these are sham recognitions.

   (Vignanskiy) Early August will mark the two-year point following the war
   in the Caucasus. What lessons, in your view, must Georgia learn from this?

   (Iakobashvili) Here in Georgia, after what has happened, we know how to
   deal with Russia. Or more accurately -- we know how not to deal with
   Russia at all. We must forget about Russia for a while, until they no
   longer occupy our territo ries. This would be the best thing for us.

   (Description of Source: Moscow Vremya Novostey Online in Russian --
   Website of liberal, small-circulation paper that sometimes criticizes the
   government; URL: http://www.vremya.ru/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   5) Back to Top
   Website Says World Situation Demands Russia and US Be Allies
   Article by Aleksandr Mozgovoy: "Where Should Allies Be Found"" -
   Natsionalnaya Oborona Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 15:25:01 GMT
   The article is published by way of discussion and reflects the author's
   personal point of view.

   In a cer tain sense the Russian-American treaty on the further cutting and
   limitation of strategic offensive weapons (SNV-3) (START-3) signed on 8
   April in Prague is an anachronism, its own sort of a Cold War relic to the
   extent that it seemingly regulates the two sides' rivalry in the military
   sphere. But this rivalry, after all, should have been left in the past,
   inasmuch as the Cold War was ended at the boundary of the 90s of the last
   century.

   It is true that there was a side that lost in it -- the USSR that
   collapsed. But it is in no way possible to call the United States a victor
   in it either. It turned out that the multi-polar world, which at first
   they did not want to recognize at all in Washington, is not only good, but
   bad. Multi-polarity engendered new challenges, which simultaneously
   threatened both the United States together with its European NATO partners
   and the Russian Federation together with the SNG (CIS -- Commonwealth of
   Independent States) countries.

   The Cold War inertia, however, is strong and even very strong. As in the
   past, the United States and Russia continue to look upon one another
   primarily as upon enemies. This is observed both at the state level and at
   the level of everyday life. You do not have to go far for examples. Let us
   recall reaction overseas in connection with the events in South Ossetia in
   2008 that was insulting for Russia. But what if instead of Russian
   peacekeepers 15 American service members were treacherously killed? Almost
   1,800 peaceful inhabitants, the majority of whom were Russian Federation
   citizens, also perished then. And what if they had American passports? Of
   course, the United States could not have leveled the Caucasus Mountains to
   the ground, but they certainly would have burned down everything in
   Georgia.

   On the other hand, it is impossible not to notice the almost joyful tone
   of the reports in the Russian media on one or another setbacks of the
   United State's and NATO's armed forces in Afghanistan. For us, this
   country is still an open wound. And now the Americans and West Europeans
   have stepped on the very same rake. And it serves them right! Instead of
   fighting narcotics producers and narcotics traffickers, they are pursuing
   Bin Ladin and the Taliban. And it is somehow has never occurred to us that
   if the Americans and their NATO allies were not in Afghanistan it is still
   unknown how the situation would have shaped up in the Middle Asian states,
   which they now call Central, that is, on Russia's southern borders. And
   we, after all, would have been buried over the roof in narcotics. In
   essence, today American and West European troops are carrying out the work
   that the Soviet "limited military contingent" did not finish.

   In Russia's new military doctrine the approach of NATO's military
   infrastructure to the Russian Federation's borders is indicated as a
   fundamental foreign threat to our country. Undoubtedly, NATO's military
   power represents a threat to Russia, inasmuch as the level of any threat
   is determined not by the political figures' statements but by the real
   capabilities of the military machine of a concrete country or group of
   countries. And such capabilities of NATO are very great in comparison to
   the Russian Federation. And still, the threat from the side of the North
   Atlantic Alliance, with all of its reality -- this is a kind of plat du
   jour that is on the menu of provincial restaurants. It can always be
   offered when there is nothing else on hand in the political kitchen. The
   very same thing to this day is to be seen in Washington and West European
   capitals. From time to time they pull the shadow of the bloodthirsty
   "Russian bear" out of the old family cupboard and set it free to "take a
   walk" on the pages of newspapers and the screens of the electronic media.

   Nevertheless, it is fashionable in the West and in the East to call each
   oth er "partners." But this concept is too imprecise and carries hardly
   any obligations. After all, players at a card table are partners, as well
   has men and women meeting in a brothel. Finally, the unforgettable Lenya
   Golubkov was a "partner" of the Mavrodi brothers (REFERENCE to a notorious
   mid-90s Russian Ponzi scheme).

   The START-3 Treaty signed in Prague can be listed among the partnership
   things. There is no harm from it. In it the sides only de jure fixed
   positions that already de facto exist in the sphere of strategic nuclear
   arms.

   But the times require an already different character of interrelations and
   a different character of agreements. And precisely -- agreements between
   allies. This does not mean that the US and Russia during the period of
   time indicated in such a treaty will love each other tenderly and
   passionately. There is no need for extremes. What is needed is the
   pragmatic approach that once existed during the years of the Second World
   War.

   Take just the story with anti-missile defense. It must be recognized that
   the US here kidded around with Russia about the entire program. By all
   accounts, plans to station anti-missile missiles in Poland and the radars
   controlling them in the Czech Republic were from the very beginning a
   diversionary maneuver. While Moscow, with the fury of a Don Quixote
   tilting at windmills, hurled anger at these non-existent objects, the
   United States deployed an ABM system at sea with SM-3 missile interceptors
   and an Aegis command and control system (for details see Natsionalnaya
   Oborona nos. 1 and 2 for 2008). Last year, the US "met Russia halfway,"
   having renounced the non-existent ABM in Eastern Europe, and opened the
   way to negotiations on START-3.

   A great deal of noise was made with regard to the now "overloading"
   (perezagruzka), now "resetting" (peregruzka) of Russian-American
   relations, but the fact remains -- in the diplomatic and propaganda
   spheres the Americans splendidly outflanked us.

   Now in Moscow they assert that if the US were to improve its ABM, then
   Russia would withdraw from START-3, which is provided for by the
   agreement. But a point on a half-year procedure of withdrawing from
   treaties of this sort is included in all similar documents. It is enough
   to recall the US's withdrawal from the 1972 ABM Treaty. From the point of
   view of international law, everything was done irreproachably.

   There is no doubt that the US will continue to improve its global system
   of anti-missile defense, including directed energy weapons (see the
   journal Natsionalnaya Oborona no. 2 for 2010). But it must be recognized
   that Washington's concern with regard to the aggressive nuclear ambitions
   of a number of states is not without grounds. The US and Russia need to
   conduct a coordinated policy, including on ABM, before the matter comes to
   a great misfortune.

   Only such a naive person as the Russian Federation's Foreign Minister
   Sergey Lavrov could talk about the fact that "there is no evidence of the
   military nature of the Islamic Republic of Iran's nuclear program."
   High-ranking Iranian figures are openly declaring this. News arrived from
   Tehran at the beginning of the current year about the beginning of
   enriching uranium to the 20% level, and in February President Mahmoud
   Amadinejad announced that the first batch of higher concentration uranium
   has already been produced. At the same time, he emphasized that the plant
   in Natanze for enriching uranium can produce even 80% nuclear fuel, that
   is, he admitted the possibility of enriching uranium to weapons grade.
   This means that in a year to a year and a half Iran will get the material
   for its own first nuclear bomb.

   The Islamic Republic of Iran's (IRI) missile programs are developing at
   similar rapid rates. On 3 February the Kavoshgar-3 (Explorer-3) rocket
   delivery system successfully put a bio-capsule into orbit, that is, an
   artificial satellite with live organisms. According the data from the FARS
   agency, the length of the multi-stage rocket is 27 meters, and the launch
   weight is 85 tons. The Explorer-3 is capable of putting 100 kilograms of
   useful load into a 500-kilometer orbit.

   This rocket, as also was the Safir (Envoy) family of rockets used by Iran
   for the peaceful development of space, was created on the basis of the
   Shahab (Meteor) type ballistic missiles. The latter in turn are clones of
   the North Korean Tepkhodon missiles that are keeping citizens of South
   Korea and Japan in fear. They had been developed on the basis of the R-11
   and R-17 missiles, better known in the West as the Scud-A and Scud-B
   supplied to the DPRK by the Soviet Union.

   The Shahab missiles have several modifications, differentiated from each
   other by useful load weight and range. According to foreign sources' data,
   the Shahab-3 missile flies fo r 1,200 miles, that is, for 1,930
   kilometers. It is able to strike targets not only in Israel, but also in
   Kazakhstan and in Russia's Caspian and Volga regions. And the Shahab-3D
   modification with a flight range of 1,600 miles (2,573 kilometers) already
   makes it to Moscow and reaches the East European countries.

   It is known that Iran has grievances not only against the US, to which its
   missiles cannot reach in the near future, and against Israel, but also
   against other states. It is enough to recall President Mahmoud
   Ahmadinejad's recent directive to his administration to "assess the harm
   that was inflicted on Iran by the presence on its territory of the
   military contingents of the anti-Hitler coalition -- the USSR, US, and
   Great Britain -- during the time of the Second World War." The Iranian
   president wants to demand compensation for this damage "for the
   restoration of the rights of the Iranian people." When the "rights of the
   people&amp;qu ot; are talked about in this context it is necessary to prepare
   for the worst -- for war. By the way, Tehran is not simply frightening its
   neighboring countries with its "meteors," it is carrying out their covert
   deployment. The missiles are placed on tractor launchers camouflaged as
   civilian trailers.

   Iran's military activity also has been sharply intensified in the Caspian.
   The constant strengthening of the Islamic Republic's navy is to be seen
   there.

   Tehran's military preparations are not going unnoticed by neighbors.
   Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan have been forced to reinforce
   their military forces. Only Russia -- in theory the main figure in the
   ODKB (CSTO -- Collective Security Treaty Organization) -- is asleep.

   But it would be better for Moscow not to slumber, but together with the
   US, its NATO allies, and its own CSTO allies to take energetic steps to
   curb Tehran's militaristic ambitions. The time for tough sanctions aga
   inst this country already is due and even overdue. Military-technical
   cooperation with the IRI should be closed until a regime that is sound of
   mind has been established in Tehran. Well, and of course it is necessary
   to be engaged in anti-missile defense. Better not alone, but together with
   the US and other NATO countries. Inasmuch as Iran's missile and nuclear
   projects already are close to the final stage, it is not worth ruling out
   support for the US's and Israel's military actions against this country.
   They might include transferring intelligence information, providing air
   space for the over-flight of combat aircraft, as well as other measures.

   Responding to a question from the American television company ABC's
   correspondent G. Stephanopolous regarding the Iranian nuclear program,
   Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev emphasized that "we cannot watch with
   indifference the way one or another nuclear program is being developed
   there. And this is precisely why Russia has joined in the work that is
   being carried out today by the United States and other countries. However,
   the chief of the Russian state noted, "sanctions are a thing that very
   rarely work." In fact, sanctions also were imposed by that same United
   States against the Soviet Union, but Washington had to rescind them in
   connection with ineffectiveness. American sanctions have been in effect
   against Cuba for almost 50 years, but the island state lives, albeit with
   difficulty.

   China, which receives large volumes of oil and gas from Iranian deposits
   for its rapidly developing industries, is almost sure not to join in
   sanctions against Iran. At the same time, Iran for the PRC is an important
   market for the sale of goods, including military goods. Almost all of the
   anti-ship missiles in the IRI navy's arsenal, for instance, are of Chinese
   manufacture.

   And here looms a different, more substantial threat to Russia's national
   security -- from the Ch inese direction. It is possible, certainly, to
   believe the words of the present leaders of the PRC about the need to
   develop cooperation with Russia. The more so that this cooperation is
   extremely advantageous to Beijing. But it is impossible not to pay
   attention to other circumstances. Military reform of China's Peoples'
   Liberation Army is now being carried out in accordance with concepts of
   "strategic borders and living space." And it foresees the need for
   "increasing the natural sphere of existence," that is, carrying out wars
   for the seizure of the territory of other countries in order to ensure the
   state's economic activity.

   As long ago as 1993 the Military Council of the TsK KPK (CC CPC -- Central
   Committee of the Communist Party of China) approved the classified
   doctrine of "overcoming (odoleniye) the three norths within the bounds of
   the four seas," so that the 21st Century should become the "Chinese
   century." Unde r the three "norths," they have in mind the US, Western
   Europe, and Russia. And under the four "seas" they have in mind all of the
   oceans of the planet. Neither more nor less! Naturally, the Russian
   Federation is considered as No. 1 as an object to be "overcome," in any
   case the regions of its Far East and Eastern Siberia. On maps that are
   printed in Chinese publications, the "correct" border of the PRC passes to
   the north of Lake Baykal and Khabarovsk Kray. But those also are
   encountered where the border passes along the Urals Mountains. Everything
   to the east is Chinese.

   China today is the locomotive for getting the world economy out of the
   global crisis. But malfunctions happen with any kind of locomotive. The
   PRC is severely short of resources: energy, metals, and fresh water. An
   oversupply of free hands is creating hotbeds of social tension, especially
   in regions where separatist moods are strong.

   The even ts in Xinjiang in July 2009 confirm this. Therefore, the question
   about "strategic borders and living space" stands out starkly. A quiet
   Chinese-ization of the sparsely populated eastern regions of the Russian
   Federation already is going on. Not only almost all of consumer goods and
   food are being brought there from China, but also the work force for
   enterprises of the extraction and processing industries that are oriented
   toward export to China.

   In many Chinese media, books, and Internet publications the thought of
   wars is persistently presented, in which the PLA, naturally, scores a
   victory over the adversary. Claims against the "three norths and four
   seas" are being bolstered by

   the unprecedented growth of Chinese military power. The PRC has at its
   disposal modern armed forces capable, if nuclear deterrence did not exist,
   of breaking without straining the resistance of troops of the Siberian and
   Far Eastern military districts and th e not powerful Pacific Fleet.

   By the way, on the PRC's strategic forces, the PLA has at its disposal
   200-300 SNV (strategic offensive weapons) delivery systems, of which only
   40-80 can "shoot all the way" to the US. How easy it is to figure out th
   at all 200-300 Chinese strategic missiles are able to hit targets on the
   territory of Russia. And this without taking into consideration tactical
   nuclear warhead delivery systems. That is to say, one might as well think
   not about cutting nuclear arsenals but about increasing and improving
   them.

   And it is required to counter the potential Chinese threat together with
   the United States. But what does the US need Russia for? Putting it
   simply, after the collapse of Russia will come the US's turn. American
   experts already now are talking about the fact that 2017 will become the
   last year when the United States will be able to defeat the PRC is a
   hypothetical military conflict, and by 2025 the PRC will sign ificantly
   surpass the US in military power.

   Yes, START-3 is not bad, but it already is not playing that role that in
   their time fell to SALT-1, SALT-2, and SALT-3. The time has come to look
   for new instruments for ensuring global security and stability, including
   in the direction of building new alliance relations between Moscow and
   Washington.

   (Description of Source: Moscow Natsionalnaya Oborona (National Defense)
   Online in Russian -- Website of monthly journal focusing in Russian
   national security issues; URL: http://www.oborona.ru &amp;amp;
   http://nationaldefense.ru)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   6) Back to Top
   RF Backs Abkhazia/S Ossetia Participation In Geneva Discussions -
   ITAR-TASS
   Thursday July 29, 2010 14:41:58 GMT
   intervention)

   VIENNA, July 29 (Itar-Tass) - Russia considers it useful to invite
   Abkhazian and South Ossetian representatives to take part in sessions of
   the OSCE Standing Committee within Geneva discussions on security and
   stability in Transcaucasia, Russian permanent representative to the OSCE
   Anvar Azimov said on Thursday on the occasion of the 12th round of Geneva
   discussions.The discussions were held on July 27."Sukhum and Tskhinval
   should have an opportunity to inform the OSCE about their concerns as long
   as our organisation is trying to position itself as a fair 'broker' in the
   South Caucasus and as one of the moderators of the Geneva process. By
   disregarding the view of Abkhazs and Ossets the Standing Committee will be
   deprived of getting an objective assessment on the state of and prospects
   for the dialogu e in Geneva. Therefore, the Standing Committee will not
   have a full picture on the Geneva discussions," Azimov said.Unfortunately,
   the 12th round of consultations in Geneva "did not yield any tangible
   results and any breakthrough, including on the key issue - Georgia should
   give strict guarantees not to use force against South Ossetia and
   Abkhazia", the Russian permanent representative said. "Russia believes
   that the priority of international discussions is to work out legally
   binding agreements on the non-use of force. This is the essence of the
   talks. If there is no progress in solving this problem, it is impossible
   to wait for any successful steps on other tracks, including on the
   humanitarian dossier," Azimov stressed.Abkhazian and South Ossetian
   partners share this position in full, he added.Azimov stressed that
   Georgia always resorted to unlawful actions in the frontier zone with
   South Ossetia ahead of or during the sessions of Geneva discussio ns and
   "artificially heightens tensions in the area and complicates the
   constructive dialogue".The 12th round of consultations on security and
   stability in the Transcaucasia took place on July 27. The delegations from
   the Republic of Abkhazia, Georgia, Russia, the United States and the
   Republic of South Ossetia participated in the consultations, which were
   held under the auspices of the UN, the European Union and the Organisation
   for Security and Cooperation in Europe. The consultations were held in two
   working groups - on security and humanitarian issues.Russian Deputy
   Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin did not attend the 12th round of the
   Geneva discussions. The Russian delegation to the consultations was led by
   Deputy Director of the Foreign Ministry's Department of CIS Affairs Alexei
   Dvinyatin.The Abkhazian delegation included former Defence Minister Gari
   Kupalba and presidential administration official Nadir Bitiyev.Diplomatic
   sources told Itar-Tass that the rea son for the lower level of
   representation at the consultations lied in the results of the previous
   round in early June when the discussion was conducted in the traditional
   format of two working groups on security and on humanitarian issues.Back
   then, the delegations of South Ossetia and Abkhazia walked out of the
   negotiations, protesting against the fact that their opinions were
   ignored.Abkhazian President Sergei Bagapsh said later that Abkhazia would
   suspend its participation in the consultations in order to allow "the
   mediators to prepare concrete and well-considered proposals."Bagapsh said
   Abkhazian representatives continued to insist on "the need to sign
   agreements on international security guarantees and the non-use of force
   that will help avoid a new conflict with Georgia.""But Georgia refuses to
   discuss such document and insists on the withdrawal of Russians troops
   from Abkhazia and South Ossetia and on the deployment of international
   forces t hat is absolutely unacceptable for our countries," Bagapsh
   stressed."Moreover, we are confident that Georgia is encouraged by
   international mediators. We won't be able to take part in the discussions
   until the situation changes," the Abkhazian president said.Dvinyatin told
   Itar-Tass, "The period of summer vacations has resulted in objective cuts
   in the Russian delegation, but the main experts are present."He said, "the
   absence of the head of the delegation is a temporary phenomenon" and
   Russia would not send any "political signals".He said the emphasis would
   be on the need fore further work on the document banning the use of force
   by Georgia against Abkhazia South Ossetia.They plan to discuss "the
   current security situation on the borders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia
   with Georgia, including a review of joint mechanisms for preventing and
   responding to incidents in border areas," the ministry said.The main
   purpose is to "work out legally binding agreements on the non-use of
   force," it said, adding, "Russia will continue efforts towards this
   goal."The Geneva discussions have been held since October 2008 as part of
   the plan proposed by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and French
   President Nicolas Sarkozy after an armed conflict in South Ossetia in
   August 2008.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main
   government information agency)

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   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
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   7) Back to Top
   Xinhua 'Analysis': Why Most Pakistanis Label U.S. 'Enemy' Despite Alliance
   Xinhua "Analysis" by Matthew Rusling : "Why Most Pakistanis Label U.S.
   'Enemy' Despite Allianc e" - Xinhua
   Friday July 30, 2010 02:15:36 GMT
   WASHINGTON, July 29 (Xinhua) -- A new report found a majority of
   Pakistanis consider the United States an enemy, in spite of Pakistan' s
   role as a key ally in the U.S. fight against radicalism.

   Regard for the United States in Pakistan ranks lowest among 22 countries
   surveyed in the Pew Global Attitudes survey, with nearly 60 percent of
   Pakistanis describing the United States as a nemesis and only 17 percent
   expressing a favorable view of the country."America' s overall image
   remains very negative in Pakistan," said Andrew Kohut, president of the
   non-partisan Pew Research Center.The Pew Research Center report, titled
   "America' s Image Remains Poor: Concern About Extremist Threat Slips in
   Pakistan," comes at a time when the Obama administration is trying to
   strengthen ties with Pakistan.Indeed, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary
   Clinton earlier this month visited Pakistan and pledged 1.5 billion
   dollars a year over a five-year period in a bid to beef up Islamabad' s
   capacity to aid U.S. strategic goals.But despite the official line of
   warming ties, the study found that U.S. President Barack Obama is widely
   unpopular in Pakistan -- a sentiment that bucks the trend of many other
   countries' admiration for the U.S. president.That in spite of his outreach
   to the Muslim world since taking office and a speech from Cairo, Egypt
   last year that sought to mend fences in light of U.S. wars in Iraq and
   Afghanistan.A mere eight percent of Pakistanis expressed confidence that
   the U.S. president will make the right choices in world affairs -- his
   lowest rating among 22 nations, the report found."Obama' s famous global
   popularity does not extend to Pakistan," Kohut said.Kamran Bokhari,
   regional director of Middle East and South Asia at global intelligence
   company Stratfor, said the president initially generated much hope in the
   Muslim world as a result of his outreach efforts.But the U.S. surge policy
   in Afghanistan, which has increased civilian casualties, has undermined
   Pakistanis' expectations of Obama. Pakistanis now view him in the same
   negative light as they did former President George W. Bush."Whatever
   expectations were there are gone now," Bokhari said.Many hold the view
   that Obama will ultimately do what is in the United States' best interest,
   which is not always in line with what Pakistan wants, he added.The recent
   WikiLeaks fiasco-- more than 90,000 U.S. military documents were this week
   leaked and posted on the Internet-- has also re-enforced feelings of
   mistrust.Some of the documents charged Pakistan with playing double agent
   and providing sanctuary to Taliban fighters while objecting to U.S. forces
   entering parts of Pakistan where Taliban are holed up."WikiLeaks has
   eroded a good deal of the goodwill and trust that had been built up ,"
   Bokhari said. "I don' t want to exaggerate the extent to which it is a
   setback, but it does complicate cooperation."Pakistanis' support for the
   United States in the fight against radicalism has declined since last
   year. Fewer want Washington to provide support for Pakistani troops,
   although around half of those surveyed are still in favor of such efforts,
   the study found.Pakistanis widely oppose the U.S. war in Afghanistan and
   nearly two-thirds want U.S. and NATO forces to withdraw as soon as
   possible, the survey said.Few believe the conflict across the border could
   seriously impact Pakistan and 25 percent said a Taliban-controlled
   Afghanistan would be bad, whereas 18 percent said it would be good.
   Twenty-seven percent said it would not matter and 30 percent expressed no
   opinion, the report found.But despite a panoply of negative opinions, most
   Pakistanis want better relations with the United States, and the number of
   those for whom an improving relationshi p is important rose to 64 percent
   from 53 percent last year.The findings are based on face-to-face
   interviews taken last spring with 2,000 Pakistani adults, mostly in urban
   areas."There's a lot of conspiracy theory that informs the opinions of the
   Pakistanis," Bokhari said, adding that such thinking can be found across
   all facets of society, including the political and military elite.There
   also exists an overall fear that India ranks higher on the U.S. list of
   friends than Pakistan -- a reflection of a pre-existing negative opinion
   of the United States, he said.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in
   English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences
   (New China News Agency))

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   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   8) Back to Top
   Moscow Calls U.S. State Dept Compliance Report Biased (Part 2) - Interfax
   Thursday July 29, 2010 12:28:37 GMT
   MOSCOW. July 29 (Interfax) - Russia is dissatisfied with the evaluation of
   Moscow's observance of the START treaty by the U.S. State Department."On
   July 28 the U.S. Department of State released its 2010 report "Adherence
   to and compliance with arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament
   agreements." Without stating any facts, Russia is attributed to those that
   violate the nonproliferation agreements," the Russian Foreign Ministry
   said on its website on Thursday."The report contains biased assessments of
   the compliance of the START treaty by Russia," the ministry said.The
   ministry says that according to the report the United States has certain
   outstanding issues, namely con cerning the inspection of ICBM RS-24."We
   would want to remind that the Russian side in due time took all the
   necessary measures to dispel these concerns and at the time of the
   expiration of the START Treaty the United States did not express any
   grievances concerning its implementation," the ministry statement
   says.According to the ministry, the United States claims that a Russian
   organization continues dual purpose biological studies. The ministry
   believes that the lack of clarity of the U.S. side about Russia's
   observance of its commitments recorded in the Biological and Toxin Weapons
   Convention could have been removed 10 years ago, if in 2001 the United
   States would not have blocked multilateral talks on developing a
   verification mechanism of the convention.The Foreign Ministry also
   dismissed as untrue the claim of the United States that Russia does not
   comply with the CFE Treaty."We want to remind you that the treaty in its
   1990 wording lost its viability d ue to the refusal of the United States
   and other NATO countries to ratify the adapted CFE Treaty in the context
   of the continuing enlargement of the alliance which resulted in the
   noncompliance of the provisions of the initial treaty by its members," the
   statement says.The ministry also describes as incorrect the phrase in the
   report about "the presence of Russian forces in Moldova and Georgia
   without those states' consent."The Foreign Ministry stressed that there
   has not been a single Russian soldier in Georgia for a long time and that
   South Ossetia and Abkhazia where Russian military bases are deployed are
   no longer parts of Georgia or parties to the CFE Treaty.As for Russian
   peacekeepers stationed in Transdniestria, the Foreign Ministry says that
   they remain there in line with an agreement between the Republic of
   Moldova and the Russian Federation on the principles of the peaceful
   settlement of the armed conflict in the Transdniestrian region of the
   Republi c of Moldova.ml dp(Our editorial staff can be reached at
   eng.editors@interfax.ru)Interfax-950040-VXMWCBAA

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   9) Back to Top
   Moscow Calls U.S. State Dept Compliance Report Biased (Part 2) - Interfax
   Thursday July 29, 2010 12:34:25 GMT
   MOSCOW. July 29 (Interfax) - Russia is dissatisfied with the evaluation of
   Moscow's observance of the START treaty by the U.S. State Department."On
   July 28 the U.S. Department of State released its 2010 report "Adherence
   to and compliance with arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament
   agreements." Without stating a ny facts, Russia is attributed to those
   that violate the nonproliferation agreements," the Russian Foreign
   Ministry said on its website on Thursday."The report contains biased
   assessments of the compliance of the START treaty by Russia," the ministry
   said.The ministry says that according to the report the United States has
   certain outstanding issues, namely concerning the inspection of ICBM
   RS-24."We would want to remind that the Russian side in due time took all
   the necessary measures to dispel these concerns and at the time of the
   expiration of the START Treaty the United States did not express any
   grievances concerning its implementation," the ministry statement
   says.According to the ministry, the United States claims that a Russian
   organization continues dual purpose biological studies. The ministry
   believes that the lack of clarity of the U.S. side about Russia's
   observance of its commitments recorded in the Biological and Toxin Weapons
   Conventi on could have been removed 10 years ago, if in 2001 the United
   States would not have blocked multilateral talks on developing a
   verification mechanism of the convention.The Foreign Ministry also
   dismissed as untrue the claim of the United States that Russia does not
   comply with the CFE Treaty."We want to remind you that the treaty in its
   1990 wording lost its viability due to the refusal of the United States
   and other NATO countries to ratify the adapted CFE Treaty in the context
   of the continuing enlargement of the alliance which resulted in the
   noncompliance of the provisions of the initial treaty by its members," the
   statement says.The ministry also describes as incorrect the phrase in the
   report about "the presence of Russian forces in Moldova and Georgia
   without those states' consent."The Foreign Ministry stressed that there
   has not been a single Russian soldier in Georgia for a long time and that
   South Ossetia and Abkhazia where Russian military bas es are deployed are
   no longer parts of Georgia or parties to the CFE Treaty.As for Russian
   peacekeepers stationed in Transdniestria, the Foreign Ministry says that
   they remain there in line with an agreement between the Republic of
   Moldova and the Russian Federation on the principles of the peaceful
   settlement of the armed conflict in the Transdniestrian region of the
   Republic of Moldova.Interfax-950215-ZZNWCBAA

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   Commerce.

   10) Back to Top
   The Reality of Egypt, a View From the Opposite Sex
   "The Reality of Egypt, a View From the Opposite Sex" -- The Daily Star
   Headline - The Daily Star Online
   Friday July 30, 2010 01:22:23 GMT
   Friday, July 30, 2010

   'What is it like to live in Egypt as a Western woman?' Duringthe years I
   lived in Cairo, I was often asked this question while visiting mynative
   Finland, or when traveling outside the Middle East.My short answer was
   'different.'In fact, I was asked this so many times that I decided to
   write a book aboutEgypt. I contemplated writing about how I first came to
   Cairo as a 22-year-oldArabic language student who hadn-t traveled much and
   had never heard ofLonely Planet travel guidebooks. I could explain to
   those who asked that I wasimmediately captivated by the orchestrated chaos
   and megapolis charm, or thatthe city also drove me crazy at times for this
   very reason.I could tell them that every time I stepped outside my door, I
   had to takecertain precautions: no bare shoulders or knees, sunglasses to
   avoid eyecontact with the idle men on the street, an iPod so I didn-t hear
   thewhispers of men I passed by, which usually qualified as sexual
   harassment.Indeed, according to a 2008 study by the Egyptian Center for
   Women-sRights, 98 percent of foreign women reported being harassed. But,
   moreimportantly, 83 percent of Egyptian women also reported harassment,
   sometimeson a daily basis. This number did not change based on whether the
   respondentwore the hijab (headscarf) or not.Harassment is a nuisance and
   sometimes a danger to all women in Cairo, and I amconstantly impressed
   with the Egyptian women working to put an end to it. Thereare brave
   Egyptian women who are also fighting against the cultural practice
   offemale genital mutilation, and for the right to make an individual
   choice aboutwearing the headscarf in their workplaces or universities, be
   elected toParliament, or be allotted custody of their children in case of
   divorce.And so instead of writing about my life as a foreigner in Egypt, I
   decided tohighlight the voices of the strong, amazing Egyptians I saw ever
   yday and whoinspired me.Among these, feminist author Nawal el-Saadawi is
   perhaps the best known. She isin her 70s and still an active speaker and
   writer on feminism, health andpolitics.Lesser known to Western audiences,
   but not less influential in Egypt, are HibaRa-uf Ezzat and Hiba Qutb.
   Ra-uf is a moderate Islamist affiliatedwith the Muslim Brotherhood. She
   looks to Islam as a way to improvewomen-s status. She doesn-t call herself
   a feminist, although sheespouses 'feminist' values, believing that a woman
   can be presidentand that women should serve in the army.Qutb, on the other
   hand, is a sexologist. She wears a headscarf and regularlyappears on Arab
   satellite channels to discuss sexuality, surprising audiencesby arguing
   that Islam invented foreplay.Another woman whose courage impresses me is a
   young costume designer in Cairo,Hind al-Hinnawy. She became a celebrity in
   Egypt after demanding that herestranged boyfriend, an actor with whom she
   had an urfi, or informal marriag e,prove his paternity of their daughter.
   In an unprecedented scenario, she wenton television to publicly share her
   story, and Egyptians - including theGrand Mufti Sheikh Ali Gomaa - took
   her side. And even when the estrangedboyfriend refused to take a DNA test,
   the court nevertheless declared him thefather.After a two-year legal
   battle, her daughter, Lina, received a birth certificateand was finally
   recognized as an Egyptian citizen.And it is not only contemporary Egyptian
   women who continue to surprise andinspire. The Egyptian Feminist Union was
   established in 1923 by a charismaticheiress, Huda Shaarawi, only three
   years after the successful suffragettemovement in the United States. And
   in the 1950s, an Egyptian feminist namedDoria Shafik went on a hunger
   strike demanding equal rights for thecountry-s women.This is why, when I
   sat down to write a book about how I felt about living inEgypt as a
   foreign woman, I instead ended up providing a broader look atEgyptian
   society as a whole, of the Egyptians, both male and female, who
   defystereotypes and create change in politics and culture, religion and
   economics- and who do it with a sense of humor. You cannot write about
   Egyptianswithout writing about their jokes, hence, my book 'Hold on to
   Your Veil,Fatima!' was born.Sanna Negus is the Middle East correspondent
   for YLE Finnish BroadcastingCompany and author of 'Hold on to Your Veil,
   Fatima! And Other Snapshotsof Life in Contemporary Egypt' (Garnet
   2010).THE DAILY STAR publishes this commentary in collaboration with the
   CommonGround News Service (www.commongroundnews.org).(Description of
   Source: Beirut The Daily Star Online in English -- Website of the
   independent daily, The Daily Star; URL: http://dailystar.com.lb)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   11) Back to Top
   Tengizchevroil Increases H1 Oil Production 22.5% - Interfax
   Thursday July 29, 2010 10:10:17 GMT
   ALMATY. July 29 (Interfax) - Tengizchevroil extracted 12.5 million metric
   tonnes (99.5 million barrels) of oil in the first half of this year, a
   22.5% increase from the 10.2 million tonnes (81.2 million tonnes) it
   produced in the first half last year, the company said in a statement.Oil
   sales in January-June rose to 12.8 million metric tonnes from 10.2 million
   tonnes in H1 2009.The company exported 8 million metric tonnes of oil to
   Novorossiysk via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium pipeline (7.5 million
   tonnes in H1 2009). The rest of the oil was transported by rail to Odessa,
   Feodosia, and Aktau, and further on to Batumi and Kulevi in Georgia.The
   company extracted 676,000 metric tonne s of liquid oil gas and sold
   688,000 tonnes in the first quarter (534,000 and 539,000 tonnes in H1
   2009, respectively). Production of dry gas increased to 4 billion cubic
   meters (bcm) and sales to 3.5 bcm (3.2 and 2.4 bcm, respectively).Chevron
   owns 50% of Tengizchevroil, ExxonMobil Kazakhstan Ventures Inc. 20%, the
   Kazakh state 20% through national company KazMunaiGas, and the
   Russian-U.S. joint venture LUKArco 5%.Tengizchevroil works the Tengiz and
   Korolevskoye oil and gas deposits in the western Atyrau region of
   Kazakhstan.Cf(Our editorial staff can be reached at
   eng.editors@interfax.ru)Interfax-950140-IREWCBAA

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   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   12) Back to Top
   King Abdullah, Assa d Declare United Support for Lebanon's Stability
   "King Abdullah, Assad Declare United Support for Lebanon's Stability" --
   The Daily Star Headline - The Daily Star Online
   Friday July 30, 2010 01:22:13 GMT
   Friday, July 30, 2010

   BEIRUT: The Saudi king and Syrian president emphasized their keenness
   tosupport the calm that Lebanon has been witnessing since the formation of
   anational unity Cabinet, the state-run Syrian National News Agency (SANA)
   saidThursday.King Abdullah bin Abdel-Aziz and President Bashar Assad
   voiced support for anymeasure that enhances Lebanon-s stability, unity and
   trust among itspeople.BOTh leaders made their remarks during talks at the
   presidential palace inDamascus.The Saudi monarch arrived in the Syrian
   capital on Thursday as part of aregional tour that comes amid heightened
   tensions in the Middle East, accordingto SANA.Assad and King Abdullah al
   so stressed that the current Arab situationnecessitated promoting Arab
   ties and looking for mechanisms to enhance Arabsolidarity and joint
   action.The visit comes as Syria which held sway for three decades over
   Lebanon, triesto open a new chapter in ties with its smaller
   neighbor.Regional tensions are also high over recent reports that Syria
   sent Scudmissiles to Hizbullah and suspicions that the party-s patron Iran
   wantsto acquire nuclear weapons.Syria, which denied sending Scuds, is
   Iran-s strongest ally in the Arabworld.On Thursday, the Syrian government
   advised the United States againstinterfering in King Abdullah-s visit to
   Damascus, saying the twocountries 'know better' how to stabilize the
   Middle East.US State department official Philip Crowley said on Wednesday
   Washington hopedSyria would play a constructive role in the region and
   would respond to theSaudi monarch-s concerns about Iranian 'threats' to
   MiddleEast stability.'Obviously, King Abdullah has played a signific ant
   leadership role in theregion. So his prospective travel to Syria and to
   Lebanon is consistent withhis search for peace,' Crowley said.A Syrian
   Foreign Ministry statement said the United States 'has no rightto define
   our ties with the countries of the region and interfere in thecontent of
   the talks the Saudi monarch will have in Damascus.'Saudi Arabia and Syria
   have long been on opposite sides of a deep rift in theArab world, with
   Syria backing resistance groups such as the Lebanese Hizbullahand
   Palestinian Hamas. The kingdom is a US ally, along with Jordan and
   Egypt.But relations begun to thaw in recent years, and Thursday-s two-day
   visitis a sign the countries are trying to show a united front as tempers
   mount inthe region, including those in Syria-s neighbor Lebanon over
   pendingindictments in the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime
   Minister RafikHariri.Many in Lebanon have blamed Syria for the
   assassination, a claim that Damascusdenies. Hariri was a Sunni leade r
   with strong Saudi links, and his killingexacerbated already-strained
   tensions between Riyadh and Damascus..An international tribunal
   investigating Hariri-s death has not announcedwho will be charged, but the
   president of a UN tribunal probing the killing,Antonio Cassese, has said
   he expects an indictment by the end of this year.Hizbullah leader Sayyed
   Hassan Nasrallah said last week members of his groupwill be among those
   indicted.Nasrallah-s announcement appeared to be an attempt to undercut
   theeffects of any indictment, and he dismissed the tribunal as an
   'Israeliplot.' Many in Lebanon worry that if the tribunal implicates
   Hizbullah inthe Hariri assassination, it could lead to another round of
   clashes betweenLebanon-s Shiite and Sunni communities, such as the bloody
   conflict thatconvulsed Beirut in 2008.Prime Minister Saad Hariri, the son
   of late Rafik, has first blamed Syria forkilling his father. But Hariri-s
   ties with Damascus have warmed followingthe Syrian-Saudi rap proachment
   that led to the formation of a national unityCabinet headed by Hariri.The
   prime minister has so far made four trips to Damascus since he came
   tooffice in November 2009.Tensions in Lebanon have generated so much
   concern that Assad was expected toaccompany the Saudi monarch to Beirut on
   Friday. Reports said that Assad, theSaudi king, and Lebanese President
   Michel Sleiman would hold a tripartitesummit at Baabda palace on
   Friday.However, The Central News Agency (CNA) reported Thursday that the
   summit, whichwould be attended by Hariri, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri
   and a number ofofficials, would not see reconciliation between some
   Lebanese leaders orbetween Assad and some Lebanese officials.The gathering
   is rather aimed at defusing mounting tensions in light of reportsabout the
   possible indictment of Hizbullah in Hariri-s assassination.Assad-s
   expected visit to Lebanon is the first since his troops withdrewfrom the
   country in April 2005. Similarly, King Abdullah pays his first visitto
   Beirut since he ascended the throne in the same year. Qatari Emir Hamad
   BinKhalifah Al-Thani will also visit Lebanon Friday evening.Sleiman on
   Thursday discussed with Hariri the upcoming visits of Arab leadersto
   Lebanon, along with efforts aimed at enhancing calm and stability in
   thecountry. Arab flags fluttered in the main roads leading to Baabda
   palace andRafik Hariri International Airport, along with photos of top
   Arab leadersvisiting Lebanon on Friday. - Agencies , with The Daily
   Star(Description of Source: Beirut The Daily Star Online in English --
   Website of the independent daily, The Daily Star; URL:
   http://dailystar.com.lb)

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   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   13) Back to Top
   Us Official Says Relations With Russia Benefits Central Europe
   "Us Official Says Relations With Russia Benefits Central Europe" -- KUNA
   Headline - KUNA Online
   Tuesday June 29, 2010 20:36:03 GMT
   (KUWAIT NEWS AGENCY) - WASHINGTON, June 29 (KUNA) -- A senior US official
   affirmed on Tuesday that the positive progress in US-Russian relations
   will benefit Central Europe ahead of Secretary of State Hillary Clintons
   trip to the region."We want to get beyond the notion that European
   diplomacy and security is a zero-sum game and that countries in Central
   Europe need to choose whether they are going to be pro-Russian or
   pro-American," said Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian
   Affairs Philip Gordon in a press briefing about Clintons trip."One of the
   things we said about the relationship with Russia is that when the United
   States has a better relationship with Russia, that is actually a benefit
   to countries in Central Europe, because they do not feel obliged to choose
   or orient one way or another," he added.Clinton will be travel to Kiev,
   Krakow, Baku, Yerevan and Tbilisi from July 1st to 5th.Gordon said that
   she will focus in Ukraine on the strategic partnership between the two
   countries while describing the decision by Ukraine to get rid of all of
   its highly enriched uranium as "a very significant step in our efforts to
   prevent nuclear terrorism worldwide." Clinton will also participate in the
   second meeting of the US-Ukraine Strategic Partnership Commission."We have
   a broad relationship with Ukraine, and expect that they will discuss
   economic and energy issues, defense cooperation, the development of
   democracy, among other topics," noted Gordon.In Poland, Clinton will
   discuss with foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski the issues of Afghanistan,
   Iran, European security, economic and energy issues, and "our common
   interest in promoting good governance and human rights, especially in
   terms of the European Union's Eastern Partnership." Clinton will also stop
   in three south Caucasus countries, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia, to
   promote efforts to resolve regional conflicts and strengthen regional
   peace and stability." Gordon said that since President Barack Obama
   announced the new US policy towards Russia 18 month ago "he made clear
   that we had common interests with Russia that we wanted to pursue in
   nuclear nonproliferation, Afghanistan, disarmament, economics, and we were
   determined to pursue those where we had concrete common interests." "We
   feel we have made significant progress in the 18 months that we have been
   pursuing this different relationship with Russia," he added.Meanwhile, FBI
   agents arrested 10 people on charges that they spent years in the United
   States as spies for Russia, using fake identities and tryin g to collect
   intelligence about US policy."We would like to get to the point here there
   is just so much trust and cooperation between the United States and Russia
   that nobody would think of turning to intelligence means to find out
   things that they could not find out in other channels. We are apparently
   not there yet," noted Gordon."We are moving towards a more trusting
   relationship. We are beyond the Cold War. I think our relations absolutely
   demonstrate that," he added.In return, State Department spokesman Gordon
   Duguid affirmed that the State Department did not have a role in the
   ongoing investigation and mentioned that US officials are communicating
   with Russian officials about the Department of Justice-led
   investigation.(Description of Source: Kuwait KUNA Online in English --
   Official news agency of the Kuwaiti Government; URL:
   http://www.kuna.net.kw)

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   source cited. Permissio n for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   14) Back to Top
   Egyptian, Saudi Officials Cited Egyptian-Saudi summit Talks in Sharm
   Al-Shaykh
   The Peace Process and the Situation in Lebanon on Top of Issues Discussed
   by the Saudi-Egyptian Summit  Al-Hayah headline - Al-Hayah Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 15:23:59 GMT
   (Description of Source: London Al-Hayah Online in Arabic -- Website of
   influential Saudi-owned London pan-Arab daily. URL:
   http://www.daralhayat.com)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   15) Back to Top
   Iranian State-Run TV Divulges Tehran's Readiness To Resume Nuclear Talks -
   Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1
   Thursday July 29, 2010 10:49:51 GMT
   Department has disclosed its readiness to hold talks with Iran within the
   framework of the Vienna Group (5+1 and IAEA) on fuel exchange. The
   spokesman of the state department, Phillip J Crawley, told a press
   conference that we (USA) are fully ready for talks with Iran on the fuel
   exchange issue for Tehran research reactor. Four days ago, the foreign
   minister of our country (Manuchehr Mottaki) had told the fringes of the
   tripartite Tehran Declaration meeting in Istanbul that Iran is ready to
   hold talks on the basis of the Declaration.

   (Mottaki) We declare our readiness for entering debate on the finer
   details of talks in various fields and (hearing) various views within the
   framework of the Vienna Group. So, this is an announcement of the
   readiness of the Islamic Republic for the start of Vienna talks. This
   statement is on the table and it can act within the framework that has
   been defined and take its course of execution.(Newscaster) Crawley also
   supported the suggestion of EU foreign policy commissioner Catherine
   Ashton for holding talks between Iran and the 5+1 group. Iran had earlier
   declared that it would hold talks with 5+1 after the end of the holy month
   of Ramadan.(Description of Source: Tehran Vision of the Islamic Republic
   of Iran Network 1 in Persian -- state-run national television, officially
   controlled by the office of the supreme leader)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   &lt; br&gt;
   16) Back to Top
   Two Americans Killed in Airblues Flight ED 202 on 28 July 2010
   AFP report: Two Americans among 152 killed in Airblue plane crash -
   Business Recorder Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 08:37:23 GMT
   ISLAMABAD: Commercial company Airblue's flight ED 202 carrying 152 people
   crashed in a ball of flames on Wednesday into densely wooded hills outside
   Islamabad amid heavy rain and poor visibility, killing everyone on board.
   Thick smoke and flames shot into the sky above the smouldering wreckage,
   partially buried on a remote hillside alongside pieces of charred flesh
   and body parts in the worst crash involving a Pakistani passenger jet in
   18 years. Airblue's flight ED 202 from Karachi was being diverted into
   land at Islamabad's Benazir Bhutto International airport when witnesses
   saw it f lying at an unusually low altitude before a deafening boom. The
   plane disintegrated into a gorge between two hills, enveloped in cloud and
   some distance from the road, severely hampering rescue efforts and
   limiting visibility for helicopters hovering overhead, an AFP
   correspondent said. "I saw a big ball of smoke and fire everywhere with
   big pieces of aircraft rolling down the hill," police official Haji Taj
   Gul said. "The plane was flying very low. Then we heard a loud noise,"
   said Wajih-ur Rehman, a resident of the exclusive E-7 neighbourhood in the
   Margalla foothills. "Nobody survived," Interior Minister Rehman Malik told
   private TV channel. Health officials said DNA tests would be the only way
   to identify many of the remains. The Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) and
   Airblue said there were 152 people, including six crew, on board the
   doomed plane. Seven children, including two babies, were on the passenger
   manifest, an official said. "It' s a big tragedy. It's really a big
   tragedy," Malik said. The US embassy said two Americans were on the
   flight. The Austrian government said an Austrian-born businessman was on
   board as well. Officials suggested the flight had been diverted due to bad
   weather, but it was unclear why the jet was flying so low and close to the
   Margalla Hills -- off the normal route for aircraft arriving from Karachi.
   One pilot said that a Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) flight from
   Karachi had been diverted to Lahore only half an hour before the Airblue
   plane crashed because of bad weather in Islamabad. Government and civil
   aviation authority said all possible causes would be investigated,
   including terrorism, bad weather and sabotage, although officials gave no
   indication that an attack might have been to blame. Information Minister
   Qamar Zaman Kaira told private TV channel that the plane's black box
   flight data recorder had been found. "Experts will analyse this and they
   will also analyse the conversation between the control tower and the
   pilot. After that we will be a position to say something about the cause
   of the crash," he said. Airblue spokesman Raheel Ahmed said the Airbus 321
   took off from Karachi before 8:00 am (0300 GMT) and speculated that bad
   weather could have the cause, saying the plane had no technical fault when
   it took off. Rescue official Arshad Javed told AFP of horrifying scenes at
   the crash site after the routine commuter flight turned to carnage. The
   government declared a day of national mourning and called off a cabinet
   meeting as Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani expressed his grief over the
   "tragic incident" and offered prayers for the dead. Anguished families
   were in tears after hearing of the disaster while waiting to meet their
   relatives at the Islamabad airport arrivals terminal.

   (Description of Source: Karachi Business Recorder Online in English --
   Website of a leading business daily. The group also owns Aaj News TV; URL:
   http://www.brecorder.com/)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
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   Commerce.

   17) Back to Top
   Nobility And Criminality in War
   "Nobility And Criminality in War" -- Jordan Times Headline - Jordan Times
   Online
   Friday July 30, 2010 01:22:07 GMT
   30 July 2010

   By Rami G. Khouri One of the paradoxes of leading Western democracies
   ishow they can be at once so noble and so criminal. A particularly
   impressiveaspect of countries like the United States and the United
   Kingdom is theirpolitical openness, particularly their insistence in many
   cases on publiclyanalysing and evalua ting their government policies, to
   learn if mistakes weremade, and presumably to learn from those mistakes. A
   case in point is theongoing inquiry in the United Kingdom into the 2003
   invasion of Iraq.At one such public hearing last week the former head of
   British domesticintelligence service MI5, Eliza Manningham-Buller, made
   three important pointsabout the Iraq war that should be relevant today for
   Western policy makers onAfghanistan and Iran. The first was about the
   total absence of any credibleinformation linking the Iraqi Baathist regime
   to the terror attacks of 9-11.The second was about how the
   Anglo-American-led invasion of Iraq radicalisedsome young British citizens
   who saw the wars in Afg?anistan and Iraq as "attackon Islam." The third
   was about the incomplete nature of the intelligence onIraq. Terror threats
   in the UK increased dramatically after the Iraq invasion,and by 2004 "we
   were pretty well swamped (with domestic terrorism plots andthreats)," ;
   she said. The decision to invade had also boosted Al Qaeda's abilityto
   move into Iraq in a way that it could not previously. Have the US, UK
   andtheir NATO allies learned anything from the Iraq war experience? Not in
   allareas, it seems. The situations today in Iran and Afghanistan suggest
   thatpolicies are still being implemented with the same weaknesses that
   officialslike Manningham-Buller so honestly admit. Much of the case
   againstIran's alleged desire to obtain nuclear weapons is based on
   fragmentary andinconclusive bits of information and a great deal of
   speculation andideological distemper, coupled with the hysteria that is
   common in Washingtonwhen pro-Israeli lobby groups use their influence with
   American member ofCongress who are at once mostly ignorant of Middle
   Eastern realities and deeplyvulnerable to electoral blackmail. The
   evidence to accuse, pressure, sanction,distrust and threaten Iran is ?hin
   as silk thread. In some light conditions, itis alluring and worth
   examining further; in others, it disappears completely.Moving towards
   likely military conflict in Iran on the same factually, legallyand
   ethically shaky basis as the dishonest drive to invade Iraq seems like
   arather poor performance for Western democracies that like to trumpet
   themselvesas custodians and purveyors of the democratic rule of law. When
   they behave asthey did in Iraq, and continue to do now with Iran, they are
   little more thancriminals, rogues and delinquents hiding behind the
   magnificent glow of theMagna Carta, habeas corpus, and other fine?legacies
   they can rightly boastof. In Afghanistan, we also witness today the same
   sort of ruffianbehaviour that creates problems as serious as those it
   purports to resolve.While the initial anti-Qaeda rationale for the war in
   Afghanistan was rathermore convincing and legitimate than the Iraq
   adventure, both its conduct andduration suggest that something
   fundamentally wrong is at hand, because newenemies are created as fast as
   existing foes are vanquished. Last Friday,according to Afghan officials, a
   NATO air strike killed 52 civilians who weresheltering in a house near an
   active battle between NATO forces and Talibanfighters in the south of the
   country. This is not an isolated incident, butrather part of a pattern
   inherent in the use of high-tech firepower by aforeign invader whose
   technical prowess is rarely matched by culturalsensitivity or local
   political support. The newly leaked American armedforces documents on the
   Afghan war indicate clearly that attacks againstcivilians generate
   antipathy and anger among a civilian population andpolitical elites that
   should be vital allies. The mounting numbers of civilianskilled, the New
   York Times reported, "left the Americans seeking cooperationand support
   from an Afghan population that grew steadily more exhausted,resentful,
   fearful and alienated." By all accounts, the Taliban grow strongerand the
   war effort in Afghanistan is not going w ell for the US-led NATO
   forces,who can kill at will but have much more difficulty winning the
   politicalsupport of populations whose mothers, wives, sisters, and
   children they killindiscriminately. Sure, the killing is often a "mistake"
   or "collateraldamage." Yet you would think that the world's oldest and
   strongest democracieswould learn after considerable experience in invading
   foreign lands that such"mistakes? are in fact the routine consequence of
   assaults defined by thinjustification, considerable ignorance, little
   caring for what actually happensto the local population during or after
   the fighting, and the combination ofpoor intelligence and zombie-like
   ideological frenzy that continues to be welldocumented in the case of the
   Iraq invasion.30 July 2010(Description of Source: Amman Jordan Times
   Online in English -- Website of Jordan Times, only Jordanian English daily
   known for its investigative and analytical coverage of controversial
   domestic i ssues; sister publication of Al-Ra'y; URL:
   http://www.jordantimes.com/)

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   Commerce.

   18) Back to Top
   Bangladesh Immigration Police Bar BNP Leader Shamsher Mobin From Flying to
   US
   Unattributed report: Mobin Barred From Going Abroad - The Daily Star
   Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 04:45:54 GMT
   Immigration police at Shahjalal International Airport barred BNP
   Vice-chairman Shamsher Mobin Chowdhury from leaving for New York last
   night.Mobin, a former foreign secretary, told The Daily Star that
   immigration police prevented him from leaving the country for not having
   clearance from the authorities concerned.Asked if they had any written
   order, police personnel said they received verbal instruction in this
   regard, Mobin said.An immigration official, preferring anonymity,
   confirmed the incident but declined to elaborate any further.Mobin said he
   was scheduled to fly by a Singapore Air Lines flight at 11:55pm to attend
   the second annual meeting of international civil service commission in New
   York.He said he is one of the members of the commission.The BNP leader is
   now on an interim bail for two months in a case filed in connection with
   torching vehicles on June 26, the day before the party's countrywide
   hartal.Police arrested him from Mohakhali in the capital during the
   daylong hartal on June 27.

   (Description of Source: Dhaka The Daily Star online in English -- Website
   of Bangladesh's leading English language daily, with an estimated
   circulation of 45,000. Nonpartisan, well respected, and widely read by the
   elite. Owned by industrial and mark eting conglomerate TRANSCOM, which
   also owns Bengali daily Prothom Alo; URL: www.thedailystar.net)

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   19) Back to Top
   EU Asks Zimbabwean Firms To Apply on 'Individual Basis' for Sanctions'
   Removal
   Report by Samantha Chidzero: "EU Set To Remove Sanctions on Individual
   Basis" - The Zimbabwe Guardian
   Thursday July 29, 2010 12:12:11 GMT
   Who ensures that those sanctions are removed?"Are they trying to divide
   and rule people in Zanu-PF?" he asked.

   (Description of Source: London The Zimbabwe Guardian in English --
   UK-based website carrying n ews reports and opinion articles on Zimbabwe
   that appear to be supportive of ZANU-PF; URL: http://www.talkzimbabwe.com)

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   Commerce.

   20) Back to Top
   Policy 'Makeovers' May Cause Loss in Supporter Base
   "Viewpoint" column by Yi Jung-jae, business editor of the JoongAng Sunday;
   Translation by the JoongAng Daily staff: "Presidential Makeovers Good and
   Bad" - JoongAng Daily Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 01:41:16 GMT
   Inconsistency is not a privilege unique to the female species. Men, too,
   change. Even the high and the mighty, like the president, are entitle d to
   it. But there is a catch. You must change for the better. Otherwise, you
   are bound to be ridiculed.Makeovers usually flop when overdone. Early
   Presidents Syngman Rhee and Pak Cho'ng-hu'i (Park Chung-hee) went
   overboard by changing the Constitution several times in order to cling to
   power. Their pride was overblown, and they thought no one could replace
   them, generating public disgust.To succeed in transformation is simple. Do
   the opposite of Rhee and Park: be selfless and true. Such sincerity can
   win over hearts from different corners. This rule of thumb is particularly
   effective in economic policies that affect varying political
   interests.President Kim Dae-jung was an expert in chameleon-like
   adaptation in response to different circumstances. The president's first
   job in office was to sign a bailout from the International Monetary Fund
   to keep the country afloat during a financial crisis in late 1997. He
   earned the epithet "IMF Plus" for going further than IM F demands on
   layoffs, collective lawsuits and mergers and acquisitions.For a
   dissident-turned-president, endorsing massive layoffs was a hard pill to
   swallow. He had to turn against his loyal working-class supporters. He was
   elected on a campaign pledge to bargain for a two-year moratorium on the
   layoff system.But after a few days in office, he yielded to the IMF
   package. The godfather of the working class came under fire for becoming
   an advocate of the conglomerates. Despite the price of betraying his
   voting base, the long-time opposition leader morphed because he believed
   it was the best thing for his country.A successful metamorphosis is
   rewarded. Systematizing layoffs was a long-time goal for Korean business,
   ending a system in which jobs were secure for life. President Kim, having
   made the business sector's wishes come true, was able to get his own
   demands in return. He demanded stringent reforms and restructuring from
   conglomerates. The successful quid pro quo enabled South Korea to graduate
   from the IMF debt program in just two years.President No Mu-hyo'n (Roh
   Moo-hyun) was not only President Kim's protege in democratic ideology, but
   also in his ability to transform himself. The one-time human rights
   activist had long been anti-conglomerate. As a presidential candidate, he
   vowed to reform the conglomerates.But he changed after moving into the
   Blue House (ROK Office of the President). He was an avid, pro-capitalist
   salesman on overseas trips. During a visit to Russia in September 2004, he
   declared, "Business defines the country." While visiting India the next
   month, he said he was proud of Korean companies. Then in November that
   year in Brazil, he said that Korean companies were true patriots.But
   sadly, it was never a true love. He remained uncomfortable with the
   business sector until the end of his term. Despite his generous praise
   abroad, he went on with business-bashing at home.The Roh transformation
   peaked when he signed a f ree trade agreement with the United States. Most
   of his aides strongly opposed it, but the president was steadfast in
   pursuing the pact.He directly phoned President George W. Bush when the
   negotiations hit a snag at the last minute. Then-Trade Minister Kim
   Hyun-jong said President Roh had his own philosophy on opening markets.
   The deal also cost him his voting base in the rural areas, but he pushed
   forward because he, too, believed it was best for his country.Now we come
   to President Lee Myung-bak (Yi Myo'ng-pak) and his makeover. We can no
   longer recognize the entrepreneurship of his days in industry, or his
   doctrine that growth is more important than wealth sharing. He frequents
   marketplaces and shops to connect with ordinar y citizens.His new
   pro-working class attitude has made him anti-business. Recently, he railed
   against large companies for spending and investing little despite their
   ample cash reserves, making the lives of citizens more difficult. He also
   chided large capital companies for slapping high interest rates on
   consumer loans.His aides are worse. They say they differ from past
   administrations in their populist policies and reckless business-bashing.
   They also say their policies don't prioritize wealth equality over
   growth.The administration should learn from its predecessors by coming out
   honestly to seek support and sacrifice from their main supporters - in the
   case of this government, the elite and business class. Only with sincerity
   can a convert gain sympathy and support and possibly succeed.We should
   remember self-renouncing leaderships that pushed ahead with the best
   interests of the nation even at the cost of betraying their supporters.
   His predecessors have done it and so can President Lee.(Description of
   Source: Seoul JoongAng Daily Online in English -- Website of
   English-language daily which provides English-language summaries and
   full-texts of items published by the major center-right daily JoongAng
   Ilbo, as well as unique reportage; distributed as an insert to the Seoul
   edition of the International Herald Tribune; URL:
   http://joongangdaily.joins.com)

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   21) Back to Top
   Int'l Modern Dance Competition to Open in Seoul - Yonhap
   Thursday July 29, 2010 06:13:02 GMT
   modern dance-competition

   Int'l modern dance competition to open in SeoulBy Kim HyunSEOUL, July 29
   (Yonhap) -- A rare international competition in modern dance will be held
   in Seoul next month, with 36 solo dancers from around the world vying for
   the US$7,000 grand prize, organizers said Thursday.The 1st Korea In
   ternational Modern Dance Competition, set for Aug. 7-12 and hosted by the
   Dance Association of Korea, aims to create a stage where young dancers can
   exchange their nations' techniques and trends in non-traditional,
   experimental dance, they said.Participants will come from all around the
   world: 21 are from Korea and 15 others are from Belgium, China, France,
   Italy, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Ukraine, Venezuela and the
   United States, organizers said.All dancers will perform solo and bring
   their own music. Scoring will be based on their dancing ability,
   expression and style, said Kim Bock-hee, president of the organizing
   committee and dance professor at Hanyang University."Diversity counts in
   modern dance. It's extremely difficult to evaluate young dancers who have
   different talents, but some of them will be distinctively superb, I
   think," Kim said. "In modern dance, a dancer performs with his or her own
   idea, but it's also very important how viewers interpret them."A
   competition dedicated to modern dance while excluding the more
   commercially popular genre of ballet is highly rare around the world, she
   added.In addition to the grand prize, the competition is also to award
   $5,000 for the gold prize, $3,000 for silver, $2,000 for bronze as well as
   other special awards.The seven-member jury includes Mark Baldwin, artistic
   director of the Rambert Dance Company in Britian; Luc Louis de Lairesse,
   Ballettoday's founder and artistic director in Belgium; and Radu
   Poklitaru, the choreographer of the Kyiv Modern Ballet in
   Ukraine.(Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial
   news agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   22) Back to Top
   Xinhua 'Analysis': 'British New PM Angers Israelis, Palestinians'
   Xinhua "Analysis" by David Harris: "British New PM Angers Israelis,
   Palestinians" - Xinhua
   Thursday July 29, 2010 12:24:24 GMT
   JERUSALEM, July 29 (Xinhua) -- The past week has perhaps left the Israeli
   government somewhat confused as to the nature of its relationship with the
   new British government of Prime Minister David Cameron.

   There was a collective sigh of relief in Israel when British cabinet
   agreed last Thursday to legislate an amendment to the country's universal
   jurisdiction law. That move was the start of a process that should prevent
   Israeli leaders from facing arrest in Britain for alleged perpetration of
   war crimes.However, in the interim Cameron surprised Israel by launching
   strong attacks on the Jewish state d uring his visit to Turkey, an event
   that in part overshadowed the next leg of his overseas travels -- to
   India.FROM ELATION TO CONCERNAs it stands, the British statute books allow
   for attempts to prosecute Israelis for their alleged crimes against
   Palestinians. On more than one occasion in recent years, Israeli leaders
   have been forced to cancel trips to the country because the threat of
   arrest hung over their heads.Those who did land on British soil narrowly
   avoided capture.In October, Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak spoke at
   the Labor Party's annual conference alongside then British Prime Minister
   Gordon Brown. On the same day, Palestinians unsuccessfully attempted to
   have him arrested.Four years earlier, Doron Almog, a senior Israeli
   general, was advised not to disembark from his plane at Heathrow because
   he would face arrest.As a result of these and other cases, one involving
   Tzipi Livni, who was Israel's foreign minister at the time, Israel has
   been pressuring Lond on to make the change.The Labor government said it
   would do what it could but then lost the general election. However,
   Cameron picked up the mantle and promised to introduce the reform."At the
   moment anyone can apply to the courts for an arrest warrant. That is a
   right that the Government wants to protect," read a statement from
   Britain's Justice Ministry."However, because the evidence necessary to
   issue an arrest warrant may be far less than would be needed for a
   prosecution, the system is open to possible abuse by people trying to
   obtain arrest warrants for grave crimes on the basis of flimsy evidence to
   make a political statement or to cause embarrassment," the statement
   continued."The government has concluded, after careful consideration, that
   it would be appropriate to require the consent of the Director of Public
   Prosecutions before an arrest warrant can be issued to a private
   prosecutor in respect of an offense of universal jurisdiction," added
   Justice Secretary Kenneth Clarke.The move was welcomed by Israel with the
   country's Ambassador to the Court of St. James Ron Prosor, defining it as
   "a step in the right direction."With relations seemingly getting back on
   track and Israel immediately talking of a possible Britain role in the
   peace process, Cameron chose to attack Israel regarding its maritime
   operation to prevent a convoy of boats from bringing aid to the Gaza
   Strip.The incident on May 31 led to the killing of nine people on board a
   Turkish ship. Israelis claimed their officers were attacked by those on
   board and in order to extricate themselves, the Israelis used live
   fire."What we saw happen, was taking place in international waters and
   this attack can only be termed as piracy. There is no other word to
   describe it," Cameron said of the Israeli operation as he answered
   questions in a joint news conference with Turkish Prime Minister Recep
   Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday.During his Turki sh visit Cameron also referred
   to the Gaza Strip as a "prison camp." In clarifying that remark he said he
   had made a similar comment several weeks previously in the House of
   Commons of the British parliament.PLEASING NO ONEWhile the Britain-based
   Palestine Solidarity Campaign (PSC) welcomed Cameron's comments in Turkey
   saying they reflect ed popular British opinion, the organization is
   exasperated with the universal-jurisdiction announcement."Disappointed is
   not the word. We are incredibly concerned that the British government does
   not seem to realize that it has a responsibility under international law
   to prosecute those suspected of war crimes and bring to justice those who
   have committed war crimes," the PSC's Director of Campaigns and Operations
   Sarah Colborne said on Thursday."What this change will do is to allow
   those people who have committed war crimes to walk freely in this
   country," she added.Likewise the Israelis have been left with a bitter
   taste in their mouth. The fact that Cameron describes himself as "a
   critical friend of Israel," means he will not be trusted by the Jewish
   state in the same way its leaders confided in his two predecessors, Gordon
   Brown and Tony Blair, according to Jonathan Rynhold, a British born senior
   research associate at the Begin Sadat Center for Strategic Studies near
   Tel Aviv.The new strategy of Britain seems to be about appeasement, said
   Rynhold. He points to the British dialogue with Hezbollah, the south
   Lebanon-based organization with its own military wing."He's gone to Turkey
   at a time when Turkey has invited (Iranian President Mahmoud) Ahmadinejad,
   is supporting the Iranian position on the nuclear question...is inviting
   the Sudanese leader who is wanted for genocide, and in that environment he
   says all of this about Israel. You have to say that is something different
   and problematic," said Rynhold.While Israelis and the U.S. pro-Israel
   lobby were init ially concerned about the stance of United States
   President Barack Obama, in recent months he does appear to have given
   considerable credence to Israel's diplomatic position.The British,
   however, appear to be moving in a different direction, so much so that
   Rynhold believed this could well make Israel turn to France in place of
   Britain as one of its main allies in Europe.(Description of Source:
   Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for
   English-language audiences (New China News Agency))

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   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   23) Back to Top
   Xinhua 'Interview': China Shows Strong Resolve To Develop Clean Energy:
   ITER
   Xinhua "Interview": "China Shows Strong Resolve To Develop Clean Energy:
   ITER" - Xinhua
   Thursday July 29, 2010 07:33:59 GMT
   PARIS, July 28 (Xinhua) -- China had shown its commitment to developing
   clean energy through its strong support for an international alternative
   energy program, the head of the program's China office said Wednesday.

   The program, known as the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor
   or ITER, aims to emulate the power of the sun to provide limitless clean
   energy, Luo Delong told Xinhua during a telephone interview."China's
   active participation in the international nuclear fusion project reflects
   the country's determination to promote the development of clean energy,"
   Luo said."It is also in line with China's long-term energy strategy," Luo
   said.In a bid to solve the energy shortage and maintain sustainable
   development, China is working to develop fossil energy and fission energy
   while vigorously seeking alternative energy sources, according to Luo.Now
   it seemed ITER might be a reliable answer to the problem of energy in the
   long run, he said."I can give you an example: after ITER nuclear fusion,
   the deuterium extracted from one liter of sea water can produce as much
   energy as that of 300 liters of gasoline," and fusion energy had huge
   potential, "because it uses the inexhaustible sea water as material," he
   said.Moreover, the ITER process won't produce greenhouse gases or cause
   any pollutants such as high-radiation uranium waste, which made it an
   ideal energy source for both environmental protection and security, Luo
   said.China had devoted a lot of effort and funds to the project, he
   said.Luo said China had made great efforts in helping establish the
   organization and the country would inject about 10 billion yuan (1.4
   billion dollars) to the project, about 10 percent of its total cost.China
   would also undertake nearly 10 percent of the project, producing various
   components and transporting them to Cadarache, southern France, where the
   ITER's reactor units would be constructed, he said.On Wednesday, the ITER
   Council, the governing body of the ITER Organization, approved the
   baseline of overall schedule and costs for the project.Representatives of
   the seven ITER members -- China, the European Union, India, Japan, South
   Korea, Russia and the United States, attended the meeting in Cadarache.The
   council said in a statement the ITER project, with a designed capacity to
   produce 500 megawatts (MW) of fusion power, had fixed a goal to achieve
   the first plasma in November 2019.The ITER project was proposed in 1985
   and research assessment and design work for an experimental reactor were
   begun in 1988.A related ITER Agreement was signed in Paris in November
   2006 by ministers from the seven ITER members, officially launching the
   project.According to the ITER Agreement, the ITER project will la st 35
   years and require a total investment of up to 10 billion euros.It is the
   second largest international science and engineering project behind the
   International Space Station, and is also the biggest international science
   and technology cooperation in which China has taken part so
   far.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official
   news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   24) Back to Top
   S. Korea's Share of Int'l Fusion Reactor Cost to Top 1 Tln Won - Yonhap
   Thursday July 29, 2010 02:52:48 GMT
   ITER cost shar ing-increase

   S. Korea's share of int'l fusion reactor cost to top 1 tln wonSEOUL, July
   29 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's share of the cost for building an
   experimental fusion reactor is expected to exceed 1 trillion won (US$841
   million) due to construction delays and the need to make technical
   adjustments, the government said Thursday.The Ministry of Education,
   Science and Technology said a special board meeting of the International
   Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project agreed Wednesday to push
   back the completion date by two years and to increase the allotment that
   must be paid by each of the seven member countries.The ITER, being built
   in Cadarache, France, is an international experiment to see if a super-hot
   plasma field, and naturally abundant tritium and deuterium can create an
   artificial sun on Earth. If the project is successful, it could provide
   mankind with a limitless energy resource."With the latest delay, South
   Korea's portion of the cost shari ng is expected to rise correspondingly
   from 876.7 billion won to an estimated 1.07 trillion won. The total is a
   provisional sum that is subject to change," a ministry official said."The
   total covers the 10 key components Seoul needs to build for the ITER, as
   well as local research and development, and personnel costs."The ministry
   said that the total cost of construction is expected to reach 6.51 billion
   euros (US$8.45 billion) from the previous 5.08 billion euros, with the
   completion date of the reactor being pushed back to November 2019 from
   late 2017.Detailed plans for the ITER were drawn up in 2001 with actual
   work kicking off in October 2007.South Korea is a member of the ITER
   consortium, made up of the European Union (EU), the United States, Japan,
   Russia, China and India. The EU must foot 45 percent of the total cost
   with other countries responsible for around 9 percent of the total
   each.The ministry official said that because of the delay, actual tests to
   see if the test bed works should now begin in 2020, with authorities to
   determine the commercial feasibility of the reactor between 2027 and
   2037.Once the process is complete, ITER members may decide whether or not
   to build a full-fledged demonstration plant that can actually generate
   power.(Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   25) Back to Top
   Iraq War Inquiry To Resume Public Hearings
   "Iraq War Inquiry To Resume Public Hearings" -- KUNA Headline - KUNA
   Online
   Tuesday June 29, 2010 10:20:14 GMT
   (KUWAIT NEWS AGENCY) - LONDON, June 29 (KUNA) -- The Chilcot Inquiry into
   the Iraq War was resuming public hearings Tuesday after a break of nearly
   four months because of the general election. Former UN weapons inspector
   Hans Blix and ex-Director General of the domestic Intelligence service,
   MI5 Baroness Manningham-Buller are among the witnesses who were appearing
   before the inquiry over the next month, the inquiry administration
   announced. The fresh round of evidence sessions will also hear from
   ex-deputy prime minister John Prescott and two former heads of the Army,
   General Sir Mike Jackson and General Sir Richard Dannatt. A string of
   diplomats, government officials and military officers will be questioned
   as well. There was speculation that previous witnesses - potentially
   including former prime ministers Tony Blair and Gordon Brown - would be
   recalled to give further evidence. But they were not included in a list of
   35 people who wil l appear in the new round of hearings at the Queen
   Elizabeth II conference centre in central London. Lieutenant General
   Andrew Figgures, former deputy chief of defence staff, has been called
   before the inquiry for a second time, but is giving evidence on a separate
   subject. Brown commissioned the Chilcot Inquiry in June last year with a
   remit to consider the whole period of Britain's involvement with Iraq from
   2001 to 2009, including the run-up to war, the invasion and its aftermath.
   Sir John Chilcot said he hopes to publish a report by the end of this
   year. Public hearings were adjourned from March 8 until today because the
   inquiry panel, chaired by former senior civil servant Sir John, wanted to
   ensure it remained outside party politics during the election campaign.
   During this break, inquiry members travelled to France and the United
   States to interview key players in the conflict. They met Paul Bremer, who
   administered Iraq as George Bush's "vice-consul" from 2 003 to 2004, and
   former French foreign minister Dominique de Villepin. Today's witnesses
   are Douglas Brand, chief police adviser to the Ministry of Interior in
   Baghdad from 2003 to 2004, and Sir John Holmes, Britain's ambassador to
   Paris from 2001 to 2007.(Description of Source: Kuwait KUNA Online in
   English -- Official news agency of the Kuwaiti Government; URL:
   http://www.kuna.net.kw)

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   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   26) Back to Top
   Al-Shabaab Vows To Make Mogadishu 'Graveyard' for Additional AU Troops -
   AFP (World Service)
   Thursday July 29, 2010 15:32:38 GMT
   (Description of Source: Paris AF P (World Service) in English -- world
   news service of the independent French news agency Agence France Presse)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   27) Back to Top
   Commentary Questions Credibility of AU's Role in Africa's Development
   Commentary by Charles Onyango-Obbo: "Scrap the AU! Africa Might Be Better
   Off Without It" - The East African Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 10:49:57 GMT
   (Description of Source: Nairobi The East African Online in English --
   Website of the weekly (Monday) English-language newspaper published by the
   Nation Media Group; coverage is primarily concentrated on Ke nya,
   Tanzania, and Uganda but includes other regions as well; URL:
   http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/)

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   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   28) Back to Top
   WWP Article on Increasing Military Moves in PRC Off-Shore Waters
   Article by Chi Shuo-ming: "US Factor Causes Rising Strategic Military
   Deterrence Everywhere" - Wen Wei Po Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 11:41:11 GMT
   Chinese scholars are most worried about a Sino-US clash at sea; they had
   hardly finished speaking when the US factor in Chinese coastal waters is
   becoming increasingly strong. Despite China's strong opposition, the
   military exercise announced by the United States and the ROK due to the
   Ch'o'nan (Cheonan) incident has taken place in the Sea of Japan close to
   China's northern doorstep, although the carrier has not entered the Yellow
   Sea, as had been earlier announced. The deterrent force of a
   three-dimensional assault in the air over the sea, on the sea, and below
   the sea, is extremely intense. During the same period, US Secretary of
   State Hillary (as received) said in a speech at the ASEAN Regional Forum
   held in Vietnam that the US Government expresses concern over the
   sovereignty disputes regarding the Nansha and Xisha islands, and the
   United States has already prepared to intervene in this long-standing
   problem between China and other Asian countries. From south to north, with
   crescent-shape encirclement of China's coast, the United States is
   demonstrating the deterrent force of military strategy by "attacking with
   words and scaring by force." US-ROK Military Exercise Displays Strat egic
   Deterrent Force

   The US-ROK joint military exercise called "Invincible Spirit" has
   mobilized the most advanced sea and air armed power of the two countries;
   although the United States and ROK have announced that the exercise is
   aimed at giving a clear "warning" to the DPRK on account of the Ch'o'nan
   incident, as the exercise is being staged at China's front door, it is
   stirring up the sensitive nerves of the Sino-US relationship. (passage
   omitted on scale of exercise, weaponry involved)

   In fact, US F-22s can fly for a long time at supersonic speed; after
   taking off from Kadena Airbase on Okinawa, it will take them only 40
   minutes to one hour to accurately attack Kim Jong Il's office, nuclear
   installations, missile bases, and other military targets throughout the
   DPRK; this is massive deterrence. Of course, at such a flying speed, it
   will not take them much longer to get to Beijing, and this is naturally a
   similar deterrence against China .

   Military strategic deterrence is becoming an important means in east Asian
   regional diplomacy and international influence, and a new post-Cold War
   trend. In particular, following the end of the Cold War, US military
   strategy has switched to the east and the center of gravity has moved to
   the Asia-Pacific region; in northeast Asia the Korean Peninsula is one of
   the important focal points, and the original balance on the peninsula has
   been broken; in southeast Asia the South China Sea is the focus of
   controversy, and the US factor will establish the balance of power in this
   region. Military exercises over these regions are increasing all the time,
   stirring up sensitive nerves in each country and also increasing possible
   friction. Russia recently staged an eastern military exercise for 2010 in
   the Sea of Japan; it seems that the Russian Navy turned out in full force;
   the Northern, Pacific, and Baltic fleets send large squadrons to display
   their military power. South Ch ina Sea Becomes Focus of Controversy
   between Peripheral Countries

   These regions are of important strategic significance, including security,
   national territory, territorial waters, political power and so on, and
   there are also some nontraditional goals such as economic security. The
   interests of all world powers are f ocused here; the DPRK nuclear issue is
   still touching the nerves of China, the United States, Russia, Japan, the
   DPRK, and the ROK. And the disputes over South China Sea island
   sovereignty involve the coastal countries of southeast Asia. The countries
   around the South China Sea are in dispute over Nansha and Xisha island
   sovereignty. This sea area has become a sensitive zone in regional
   security. "Accidental firing" will become a routine event. The Philippine
   president recently signed a territorial waters baseline law, which
   includes some of the Nansha group in Philippine territory. The United
   States is also now sticking in an oar for "fre edom of navigation,"
   deepening the regional complexity.

   Hanoi has speeded up its military modernization process, regarding the
   selection and purchase of more air force and naval patent installations as
   the most important thing. Since the 1990s Vietnam has acquired 12 Russian
   Sukhoi multi-role jet fighters, and earlier this year it ordered 12 more
   with a value of over $500 million, seeking to double its air force
   strength. In recent years, Russia has also helped Vietnam to strengthen
   its navy building, and has provided it with six small frigates and two
   missile frigates. Not long ago Russian media reported that
   Rosoboronexport, an arms exporter, has agreed in principle to provide
   Vietnam with six super-quiet "Kilo" submarines, worth $1.8 billion. Since
   Vietnam at present only has two mini-submarines, these Russian-built boats
   will enable Vietnam to achieve a big flying leap in anti-submarine and
   anti-warship capability.

   Recently the Malaysian Navy has frequently displayed new warships
   targeting the South China Sea; the navy has now entered the new generation
   of MEKO100 coastal cruisers. Reports point out that the tasks facing the
   MEKO100 cruisers will no longer be just responsibility for marine patrols
   but will be higher intensity combat tasks. Analyses point out in this
   regard that Malaysia has long been on watch for some islands in China's
   Nansha archipelago; should a South China Sea conflict occur, Malaysia's
   coastal cruisers will fully act as the backbone force confronting the
   Chinese Navy.

   China is not showing weakness either; it is building a deep-water port and
   submarine base on Hainan to guard against US reconnaissance. The US global
   strategic network, citing US naval intelligence, claims that in early 2010
   Chinese naval submarine units suddenly intensified patrols in the South
   China Sea; before the argument between China and the United States over
   arms sales to Taiwan died down, the Chinese Navy had a lready started
   patrols in this disputed sea area. It is said that US military satellite
   reconnaissance has observed a large number of submarines entering and
   leaving the Chinese Navy's Yulin base, probably changing patrol shifts.

   With various countries displaying their military strength in east Asia,
   and military strategic deterrence replacing friendly exchanges, the
   confrontational nature of military strategic deterrence has overspread
   dialogue, and friction is on the rise in the region; small-scale conflicts
   are even possible in the short term.

   (Description of Source: Hong Kong Wen Wei Po Online in Chinese -- Website
   of PRC-owned daily newspaper with a very small circulation; ranked low in
   "credibility" in Hong Kong opinion surveys due to strong pro-Beijing bias;
   has good access to PRC sources; URL:
   http://www.wenweipo.com)Attachments:wwp0729a.pdf

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission f or use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   29) Back to Top
   ROK's Yonhap: US Urges Burma To Abide by UN Sanctions on DPRK
   Yonhap headline: "U.S. Urges Myanmar to Abide By U.N. Sanctions on N.
   Korea: State Dept." by Hwang Doo-hyong - Yonhap
   Thursday July 29, 2010 23:24:08 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   30) Back to Top&lt; br&gt;
   North Korean Foreign Minister Begins Visit With Tour of Shwedagon Pagoda
   Report by Joseph Allchin: "N Korean visit clouded in secrecy"; For
   assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at (800) 205-8615 or
   OSCinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Democratic Voice of Burma Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 19:38:10 GMT
   North Korea's foreign minister, Pak Ui-chun, arrived in Burma today on a
   four- day visit as the highest-level delegate from the reclusive state to
   travel to Burma since bilateral relations were normalised in 2007.

   Pak Ui-chun visits Shwedagon pagoda in Rangoon (DVB)

   Few details have been made public about Pak's itinerary, but today he
   visited the famous Shwedagon Pagoda and the National Museum in Rangoon,
   and is due to travel to the capital Naypidaw on Friday. There he will meet
   with his counterpart, Nyan Win.&lt; br&gt;
   The visit has not officially been announced by either government, and Nyan
   Win will have just returned from a trip to India with junta chief, Than
   Shwe. It is not known whether Pak will meet with the reclusive senior
   general.

   Fresh speculation about military ties between the two countries will
   likely follow: the apparently warming relationship has concerned the US,
   which points to suspicious North Korean ships docking in Rangoon and a DVB
   expose about Burma's nuclear intentions, via military defector Sai Thein
   Win, as evidence.

   Pak is a veteran of North Korean foreign policy, having held posts as
   ambassador to Russia for 18 years as well as heading missions in Syria,
   Algeria and Lebanon.

   His visit will represent a large step forward for bilateral relations
   between the two countries, which soured in 1983 when a bomb detonated by
   North Korean agents killed members of a South Korean delegation in
   Rangoon, who were visiting the Martyrs Mausoleum.

   The attack failed to take out its intended target, South Korean President
   Chun Doo Hwan, but resulted in a suspension of bilateral relations between
   the North and Burma.

   Their shared pariah status has been a warming factor in relations as both
   countries struggle to overcome isolation, particularly in regards to
   trading partners. Earlier this year the Burmese junta

   http://www.dvb.no/news/burma-revels-in-kim-jong-il/2938 honoured North
   Korean leader Kim Jong-il with a special ceremony for his birthday. Both
   have been under US scrutiny for their weapons trading and the alleged
   North Korean assistance to Burma's nascent nuclear programme.

   Hilary Clinton said before the recent ASEAN Regional Foreign (ARF)
   Ministers meeting in Hanoi that "we continue to be concerned by the
   reports that Burma may be seeking assistance from North Korea with regard
   to a nuclear programme."

   The US extended sanctions on Burma after the Hanoi meet, which was a
   ttended by Pak, citing links to North Korea as one of the main reasons.

   Washington is currently undertaking with South Korea joint naval exercises
   off the coast of North Korea, which will involve the US nuclear-powered
   aircraft carrier, the George Washington. The operation was given added
   poignancy by the alleged North Korean sinking of the South Korean naval
   vessel, the Cheonan. The US and South Korea indicted the North for the
   sinking, which killed 46 sailors, but refused to let North Korean
   officials examine the aged evidence.

   Burma and North Korea's shared antipathy of the US may feature heavily in
   talks, as North Korean looks to include a regional ally its stand-off
   against Washington. Photograph obtained from

   http://www.dvb.no/ www.dvb.no

   (Description of Source: Oslo Democratic Voice of Burma Online in English
   -- English-language version of the website of a radio station run by a
   Norway-based nonprofit Burmese media organization and Burmes e exiles.
   Carries audio clips of previously broadcast programs. One of the more
   reputable sources in the Burmese exile media, focusing on political,
   economic, and social issues; URL: http://www.dvb.no)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   31) Back to Top
   North Korean Foreign Minister Visits Burma; US 'Concerned' by Military
   Ties
   AFP Report: "N Korean FM in Myanmar Amid Nuclear Worries" - AFP
   Thursday July 29, 2010 06:37:16 GMT
   (Description of Source: Hong Kong AFP in English -- Hong Kong service of
   the independent French press agency Agence France-Presse)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   32) Back to Top
   Cambodian National Bank Intervenes To Stabilize Currency in First Half of
   2010
   Report by Poeusda: "Cambodian National Bank Uses 240.58 Thousand Million
   Riel To Save the Riel Currency" - Reaksmei Kampuchea
   Thursday July 29, 2010 07:54:22 GMT
   According to a report on the first half of 2010, published on 26 July, the
   CNB bought US dollar 17 times and sold the US dollar 16 times.

   The same source also said that in the 17 transactions to buy the US
   dollar, the total amount of US dollar bought was $41.26 million using
   172.9 thousand million Riel. In the 16 tra nsactions to sell the US
   dollar, the CNB used $16 million to absorb 67.68 thousand million Riel
   from the market.

   Mrs Tal Nai Sim, CNB director general, said on the same day (26 July) that
   in the first half of 2010 the Riel suffered a slight devaluation against
   the US dollar. The Riel, however, had been fairly stable compared to the
   depreciation of other currencies.

   According to the above report, there was roughly a two percent increase in
   the exchange rate against the dollar. In other words, at the end of the
   second half of 2009, the exchange rate was only 4,182 Riel, and in the
   first half of 2010 it went up to 4,266 Riel.

   The same source also said that this decline was caused by the general
   appreciation of the US dollar and the influence of world financial crisis
   which affect the flow of fund into the country, and also the weak balance
   of payment while the government's expenditure was up.

   By 26 July, the following is the exchange rate in Cambod ia: one US dollar
   is bought for 4,264 Riel; one US dollar is sold for 4,270 Riel. In the CNB
   website the affirmed official rates are: $1=4,237 Riel for buying, and
   $1=4,245 Riel for selling.

   (Description of Source: Phnom Penh Reaksmei Kampuchea in Cambodian  One
   of the oldest and most widely read pro-government daily newspapers. Title
   translates as "Light of Cambodia." Circulation between 15,000 and 20,000.)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   33) Back to Top
   Russia's Arctic shelf expedition is of state importance - presidential
   envoy - Rossiya 24
   Thursday July 29, 2010 11:16:33 GMT
   presidential envoy

   Text of report by state-owned Russian news channel Rossiya 24 on 29
   July(Presenter) A Russian scientific expedition has left for the Arctic.
   Under the plan, the flagship of the Russian Polar fleet, the Akademik
   Fedorov, will be back no sooner than in 100 days' time. The main goal of
   the expedition is to ascertain the boundaries of the Russian continental
   shelf. To this end, the scientists will use unique equipment installed on
   board the ship. Vitaliy Arutyunyan has more.(Artur Chilingarov,
   uncaptioned, pointing at a map) This is an absolutely unique expedition
   linked to studying the continental shelf, the boundaries of the
   continental shelf of the Russian Federation.(Correspondent) Before the
   ship sets off, the crew are once again checking the route of the
   expedition: from the Laptev Sea to the Pole, further to the Ostrov
   Vrangelya island, the East Siberian and the Chukchi seas. Making its way
   through ice is a usual thing for the Akademik Fedo rov. But the Arctic
   Ocean can surprise one at any moment, that is why every detail is
   important.(Valeriy Viktorov, captioned as the captain of the Akademik
   Fedorov) The route is the usual one: the Karskiye Vorota strait, the
   Proliv Vilkitskogo strait. This is the area where the work will be
   conducted. There is cyclone activity there now that helps destroy the ice
   mass. We hope that by the time we get there, things will become
   easier.(Correspondent) The Akademik Fedorov will spend exactly 100 days in
   the Arctic. During that period the scientists will carry out geological
   and seismic exploration of the continental shelf. To that end, unique
   equipment has been installed at the ship, including a multibeam echo
   sounder that will make it possible to determine the depth with high
   accuracy.(Artur Chilingarov, captioned as special presidential envoy for
   international cooperation in the Arctic and the Antarctic) This work is
   necessary for us to be able to present in a few years a bid to the United
   Nations for the Russian (continental) shelf and its boundaries. We will be
   working beyond the 200 mile zone. All this work will be carried out beyond
   the 200 mile zone, in the sector that we consider Russian.(Correspondent)
   The special presidential envoy describes the expedition as having special
   state importance. Russia must prove that the underwater Lomonosov and
   Mendeleyev ridges are a continuation of the continental shelf. According
   to experts, there are enormous deposits of oil and gas there.The
   information for the United Nations commission will be gathered by more
   than 60 scientists: oceanographers, cartographers, hydrographers and even
   meteorologists. Most of them are young people: emphasis has been made on
   them.(Nina Chervyakova, captioned as a member of the expedition) We have
   always been taught that by profession we are hydrometeorologists and that
   this is a profession that implies service to nature and to one's
   fatherland. That is why it is very impo rtant.(Correspondent) Russia plans
   to prepare its bid to the UN for the Arctic shelf by 2013. Meanwhile, its
   main rivals, the United States and Canada, are also sending a joint
   expedition to the Arctic, which begins on 7 August. The issue at stake is
   an area of 1.2m square kilometres in the Arctic.(Description of Source:
   Moscow Rossiya 24 in Russian -- State-owned, 24-hour news channel
   (formerly known as Vesti TV) launched in 2006 by the All-Russian State
   Television and Radio Broadcasting Company (VGTRK), which also owns Rossiya
   TV and Radio)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   34) Back to Top
   Roundtable Panelists View Afghanistan, Iran Situations
   Figures indicate program running t ime. For a video of this program,
   contact GSG_GVP_VideoOps@rccb.osis.gov or, if you do not have e-mail, the
   OSC Customer Center at (800) 205-8615. Selected video is also available on
   OpenSource.gov. - Cubavision
   Thursday July 29, 2010 04:46:22 GMT
   (Cubavision, 28 Jul 10)

   1. 2230 GMT Moderator Randy Alonso Falcon introduces "The World at
   Mid-Week" program which is to discuss the revelations, in WikiLeaks, of
   more than 92,000 US documents on the war in Afghanistan, new civilian
   casualties in that conflict, and the debate over the failed US strategy in
   that war. In addition, he says, the program will analyze new European
   Union and Canadian sanctions against Iran and statements by the Iranian
   Government. He announces his guests for the first segment of the program:
   Granma International commentator Elson Concepcion Perez and Prensa Latina
   journalist Leonel Nodal Alvarez, who is also an analyst of topics on Asia
   and the Middle East. Alonso also announces Reinaldo Taladrid's "The
   Corner" segment for later in the program.

   2. 2232 GMT Alonso presents a short video clip saying that US President
   Barack Obama "has minimized the importance of classified reports on the
   invasion of Afghanistan" published in the international media. Alonso
   shows another short clip where Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad
   describes as "ridiculous" the policies of Europe and the United States
   with regard to his country.

   3. 2233 GMT Alonso reads Fidel Castro's "Reflections by Comrade Fidel"
   commentary series: "The Strategic Victory," published originally on the
   site Cubadebate on 27 July. Filed as LAP20100728464001.

   4. 2245 GMT Today's News segment involves a video clip on the oil slick,
   100 days after it first happened.

   5. 2250 GMT Alonso says that war seems to be the Empire's favorite topi c,
   adding that US Congress supports a new budget to continue military actions
   in Afghanistan, Iraq, and other areas. Alonso asks Concepcion to tell
   figures of new military budget, as well as significance that analysts give
   to such figures. Concepcion says that yesterday House of Representatives
   approved $33 billion, additional to $130 billion already approved at
   President Obama's request. Concepcion states that there is criticism
   within Congress itself about the new figure. Alonso states that he wants
   to recall that Obama, as a candidate and later on, as president, stressed
   during his inauguration that he would not do like former President Bush
   who asked for additional funds for wars. Alonso further states that this
   is the second time that the US President has violated his promise.

   (Cubavision, 28 Jul 10)

   (Cubavision, 28 Jul 10)

   6. 2254 GMT Alonso turns to Nodal asking him to comment on new casualties
   in southern Afghanistan and on reports and analys es in the international
   media with regard to civilian casualties. He also asks Nodal to assess the
   documents that have just been disclosed. Nodal states that the 92,000
   documents contain a lot of information on civilian casualties. He adds
   that the documents have caused quite a commotion in the world. Nodal says
   that there is so much to read and discover in the documents that some
   European and US publications are publishing manuals on how to read and
   process all the information. Nodal emphasizes that the most important
   thing is the effect that such information will have on the public. Nodal
   says that "it makes no sense to continue adding funds to a war that makes
   no sense."

   7. 2300 GMT Nodal reads excerpts of a commentary appearing in The New York
   Times on the documents and wonders how many casualties there are for sure
   and mentions some casualty figures for June and so far in July.

   8. 2302 GMT Alonso states that on Friday, 45 people were killed during the
   bombing of "defenseless civilian population" by NATO forces. Alonso reads
   remarks by Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani who said that
   Afghanistan will become a new Vietnam for the United States.

   9. 2304 GMT Alonso shows a video clip of WikiLeaks founder as he reported
   about the military documents on the war in Afghanistan, as well as
   reaction to such documents. Concepcion says that these documents and
   previous documents, as well as remarks by US and NATO generals prompt many
   questions about President Obama's strategy. Concepcion says that experts
   feel that Afghan resistance is smarter and that it is using the war of
   attrition strategy against its opponents and that the Taliban occupy 70%
   of the country.

   10. 2312 GMT Alonso asks Nodal to report on the US reaction to the
   document, especially on what has been the White House reaction and what
   analysts are saying. Nodal reports that President Obama first said that he
   was worried and t hen played down importance of documents, saying that
   they were old reports. Nodal states that the documents might be old to
   President Obama but not to the public. He speculates about what will
   happen if the United States pulls out of Afghanistan. According to Nodal,
   the US problem is how to do it without losing face.

   11. 2317 GMT Alonso states that "analysts agree that the main result of
   the documents is that the US strategy has been a disaster in Afghanistan."
   He thanks his guest for sharing with him the first segment of today's
   Roundtable.

   (Cubavision, 28 Jul 10)

   12. 2319 GMT Alonso introduces Taladrid's "The Corner" segment. Taladrid
   announces that he has received over 50 responses to his contest from last
   week and says that contest winner will be announced next week. Taladrid
   says that by analyzing the Middle East situation, specifically the
   possibility of a military action against Iran, he has been thinking about
   the closest antecedent to this topic in order to draw conclusions or
   lessons from it. He stresses that such antecedent is Operation Orchard, an
   Israeli action against Syria to destroy an installation. Taladrid goes
   back in history to review what he terms were six different media versions
   of what truly happened. Taladrid also reviews reaction from various US and
   Israeli officials, citing one statement: "it was a clear message to Iran,
   Israel has the right to self-defense and it includes offensive operations
   against weapons of mass destruction that pose a threat and the United
   States justifies such attacks." Taladrid ends by stating that this is an
   antecedent that perhaps deserves more analysis and more points of
   comparisons with regard to possible scenarios for the complex situation in
   the Middle East.

   13. 2333 GMT Alonso announces his guests for the second segment of the
   program: Idalmis Brooks Beltran, specialist of the International Relations
   Department of the C entral Committee of the Communist Party of Cuba, PCC;
   and Roundtable journalist Oliver Zamora Oria who will "review the most
   recent reports on US and Israeli threats against Iran, European and
   Canadian sanctions against that nation, and Iranian reaction to such
   events."

   14. 2334 GMT Alonso says that new measures taken by European Union and
   Canada against Iran were announced yesterday. Alonso asks Zamora to tell
   about content of measures and their objectives. Zamora says analysts think
   that these are the most severe measures taken by the European Union with
   regard to any country. Zamora states that the measures are "the European
   version of those taken by the United States." In other words, he says,
   "this is a joint strategy" between the United States and its European
   allies. Zamora lists the measures and makes a brief analysis of them.

   (Cubavision, 28 Jul 10)

   (Cubavision, 28 Jul 10)

   15. 2340 GMT Alonso asks Brooks B eltran to tell about the opinion of "the
   spokesmen of war in the United States and Israel." She refers to what
   Taladrid just mentioned about "the United States and Israel agreeing on
   their positions." She says Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak is visiting
   the United States and cites Barak as reported by an Israeli newspaper:
   "Jerusalem and Washington share the same diagnosis that Iran is determined
   to reach a nuclear military capacity," adding that a series of measures
   must be taken against Iran, Brooks Beltran says. Brooks Beltran also
   mentions statements by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on the European
   and Canadian sanctions and stresses that what this is all about is an
   effort "to continue the offensive policy against Iran."

   (Cubavision, 28 Jul 10)

   (Cubavision, 28 Jul 10)

   16. 2346 GMT Alonso shows a video clip on the Iranian president's reaction
   to the European Union sanctions against Iran and asks Zamor a to comment
   on it. Zamora states that "Iran shows a firm position not to yield under
   pressure and to defend its right to have nuclear energy for peaceful
   purposes." Alonso asks Brooks Beltran to comment on the European reaction.
   She mentions remarks by the British prime minister and by Russian
   officials on the sanctions, as well as the rejection of the Brazilian and
   Turkish leaders.

   17. 2354 GMT Alonso states that these were the news from a region where
   peace is at stake. He thanks his guests and ends the program.

   Reception: Good

   Duration of broadcast: 84 minutes

   (Description of Source: Havana Cubavision in Spanish -- Government owned,
   government-controlled television station)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   35) Back to Top
   RSA Writer Views 1st Preparatory Committee Meeting for Arms Trade Treaty
   Commentary by Dominique Dye: "Moving Forward on an Arms Trade Treaty" -
   Institute for Security Studies
   Thursday July 29, 2010 11:56:02 GMT
   (Description of Source: Pretoria-based Institute for Security Studies in
   English -- Independent policy research institute providing research and
   analysis of human security issues in Africa to policy makers, area
   specialists, and advocacy groups. The think tank is headquartered in
   Pretoria, South Africa with offices in Kenya and Ethiopia; URL:
   http://www.iss.co.za)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Com
   merce.

   36) Back to Top
   Expert Says Ugandan Bomb Attacks Show US 'Uncertainty' To Tackle Somali
   Crisis
   Report by Kevin J. Kelley: "Kampala Twin Attacks Expose US Uncertainty
   Over Somalia" - The East African Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 11:49:54 GMT
   (Description of Source: Nairobi The East African Online in English --
   Website of the weekly (Monday) English-language newspaper published by the
   Nation Media Group; coverage is primarily concentrated on Kenya, Tanzania,
   and Uganda but includes other regions as well; URL:
   http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   37) Back to Top
   Writer Criticizes US President Obama for 'Racial Skittishness'
   Article by Jacob Dlamini: "Hung Out to Dry by Obamas Racial Skittishness"
   - Business Day Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 06:49:21 GMT
   (Description of Source: Johannesburg Business Day Online in English --
   Website of South Africa's only business-focused daily, which carries
   business, political, and general news. It is widely read by decisionmakers
   and targets a "higher-income and better-educated consumer" and attempts to
   attract "aspiring and emerging business." Its editorials and commentaries
   are generally critical of government policies; URL:
   http://www.bday.co.za/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   38) Back to Top
   Luring Chinese Tourists - The Korea Times Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 09:52:01 GMT
   (KOREA TIMES) - Eased visa issuance should just be beginning

   It's been some time since Seoul subway operators added Chinese to Korean,
   English and Japanese for their station announcements. The problem is, more
   than a few Chinese visitors complain that the broadcast rather increases
   their confusion because of incorrect diction and pronunciation.This
   episode illustrates the wide gap between Korean officials' eagerness to
   attract nouveau-riche tourists from the rapidly-growing neighbor and their
   half-baked steps.Korea also often finds itself a few steps behind i ts
   major competitors. A case in point was the Justice Ministry's announcement
   Tuesday on the eased rules in visa issuance. The ministry is right to
   sharply expand the beneficiaries of multiple visas from high-income to the
   middle-income Chinese while reducing the number of documents required for
   it.Yet Japan, which is fiercely competing with Korea to draw Chinese
   tourists, will drastically lower the threshold annual income for visa
   issuance from 250,000 yuan (about $37,000) to 60,000 yuan ($8,800)
   beginning next month. The per capita income of some Chinese cities,
   including Shanghai, has topped $10,000, but Korea's visa criteria is based
   on a decade ago when China's per capita GDP remained at $1,000.Often, more
   serious problems occur after the Chinese tourists pass Korean
   immigration.Annoyed by package tour programs at "dumped" prices, marked by
   cheap accommodation and dining, forced shopping and rampant overcharging
   at shops, quite a number of Chinese tourists are reportedly vowing not to
   revisit Korea. Many Koreans only have to recall how they felt during
   similar tours to China and other Southeast Asian countries to be in the
   shoes of the visiting Chinese. Korea was ranked at ninth out of 10 major
   destinations in Chinese tourists' satisfaction, trailing behind Thailand
   and Vietnam.The number of middle-class Chinese currently totals about 49
   million, almost equal to Korea's total population, but is expected to soar
   to 200 million in a few years, and China's overseas travelers will be the
   fourth biggest in number, following the United States, Germany and Japan.
   Yet the dumping tours and other gloomy industrial reports here explain why
   the eased visa issuance alone cannot attain the government's ambitious
   goal to more than double the number of Chinese tourists to 3 million by
   2002.Industry experts cite three basic factors as essentials for promoting
   tourism eating, shopping and sleeping and say Korea can boast a
   comparative advantage over major competitors in none of these.Some are
   more cynical, criticizing the number of inbound tourists rather declined
   whenever the government conducted "Visit Korea Year" campaigns in the
   past, pointing to the gap between slogans and corresponding actions.It may
   be a good starting place if the government boldly cancels the licenses of
   cheap tour operators, while introducing an incentive system, in which it
   gives subsidies in proportion to the foreign tourists'
   satisfaction.(Description of Source: Seoul The Korea Times Online in
   English -- Website of The Korea Times, an independent and moderate
   English-language daily published by its sister daily Hanguk Ilbo from
   which it often draws articles and translates into English for publication;
   URL: http://www.koreatimes.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   39) Back to Top
   Thailand 'Likely' To End Emergency Rule in Six Provinces Excluding Bangkok
   AFP Report: "Thailand Likely To End Emergency Rule in Six Areas --
   Minister" - AFP
   Thursday July 29, 2010 09:05:52 GMT
   (Description of Source: Hong Kong AFP in English -- Hong Kong service of
   the independent French press agency Agence France-Presse)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   40) Back to Top
   Playing Three-Ball Billiards in Beirut
   "Playing Thr ee-Ball Billiards in Beirut" -- The Daily Star Headline - The
   Daily Star Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 01:27:01 GMT
   Thursday, July 29, 2010

   Lebanon is caught up in a game of political billiards these days, each
   sideplaying a second ball against the third. And who is benefiting most
   from thissituation? Syria-s President Bashar Assad.For Prime Minister Saad
   Hariri, the alignment with Syria has brought dividends.Hizbullah has never
   felt so isolated, and Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah-sspeech just over a week ago
   was, above all, a reminder of the favors the partyrendered to Damascus.
   Hariri has been under no undue pressure to terminateLebanon-s relationship
   with the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, despiteNasrallah-s charge that it
   is 'an Israeli project,' and thatis because he knows that Syria will not
   allow Hizbullah to change the rules ofthe game in Beirut.But if Hariri is
   using the Sy rian ball against Hizbullah, what advantage do theSyrians
   have in using Hariri against Hizbullah? Simply, to bring the partysquarely
   under Syria-s sway, after five years when it was Syria thatdepended mainly
   on Hizbullah - because it held the ground - todefend its Lebanese stakes.
   During that time, Iran-s influence in Lebanonexpanded, denying Syria the
   paramount role it had played in the country fordecades. Assad now wants to
   reverse that equation, and is doing so byexploiting his new Sunni
   alliance, with Hariri for sure, but chiefly with SaudiArabia, whose King
   Abdullah will alight in Beirut this week to bless the neworder.Hizbullah,
   in turn, hoped to use its denunciation of the special tribunal toweaken
   Hariri. The Syrians are of two minds on the matter. Their
   Lebanesespokesmen are calling on the prime minister to turn against the
   tribunal, whileAssad appears not to have made such a request. The Syrians
   are keeping severalirons in the fire. They know that an accusation aga
   inst Hizbullah mayeventually hit them, a fact of which they were reminded
   by Walid Jumblatt,himself a corsair plying the uneasy seas between Syria,
   Hariri and Hizbullah.But they are also aware that the tribunal-s
   prosecutor, Daniel Bellemare,will not soon indict Syrians (if anyone), so
   they can use the prospect of legalaccusations to make Hizbullah more
   dependent on Damascus.Hizbullah can be reassured by the fact that Syria
   wants the party to bend toSyrian priorities, but it has no desire to see
   Hizbullah decisively damaged.Nor for that matter is Assad likely to oppose
   a war in southern Lebanon ifHizbullah is required by Iran to retaliate
   against an Israeli or Americanattack against the Islamic Republic. In
   fact, Syria could well view a conflictas an opening to enhance its control
   over Lebanon, perhaps even return to thecountry militarily.How so? Assad
   would point out that only Syria can stabilize Lebanon in theaftermath of a
   war that devastates lives and infrastructure, dis credits thegovernment
   (as wars tend to do), tears down the United Nations security edificein the
   south, and confirms Hizbullah as a major regional headache. If the
   partymanages to resist Israel for several weeks - and Syria has
   everyintention of ensuring it does - this would alarm the Arab states,
   Israeland the United States, whose approval is needed to sanction some
   sort of Syriancomeback.As the columnist Hazem Saghieh wrote last week in
   Al-Hayat, Syrian leaders havebeen good at reversing their alliances in
   Lebanon for Syria-s greaterbenefit. In 1976, the Syrian Army entered
   Lebanon at the request of theMaronite leadership to fight the Palestine
   Liberation Organization and theLebanese National Movement. President Hafez
   Assad sought to avoidLebanon-s becoming a PLO base, which might have
   forced Syria into aconfrontation with Israel. So he used the Maronite
   invitation to invade Lebanonand bring the PLO to heel, before turning
   against the Maronites and reconcilingwith the Pale stinians when Egypt
   began talks with Israel.You have to assume that the Syrians, in the way
   they bludgeoned the PLO, willseek to do the same to the Sunni community in
   the not too distant future. Afeature of Syria-s presence in Lebanon was
   the suffocation of independentSunni political activity that could threaten
   Damascus- hold over Lebanon- all the more important given its potential
   repercussions on theSunni-Alawite rapport in Syria. Saad Hariri has sought
   to challenge that rule,most recently by pursuing the institutionalization
   of the Future Movement,which may emerge as a Sunni 'big tent.' Yet this is
   not a move thatSyria will accept lightly.For Syria to play a regional
   balancing role, it needs to continue maneuveringbetween the Arab world and
   Iran - in other words it cannot afford to seeIran marginalized. That
   should be a further source of comfort to Hizbullah, butalso a thought
   American policy-makers must bear in mind when assuming that itis possible
   to play Damascus off against Tehran. But then again as a prominentofficial
   remarked in Beirut recently, Washington is in a 'coma'regionally, by so
   downgrading its presence, a major factor in pushing the Arabstates, Turkey
   and Iran to compete over the ensuing vacuum.Syria-s objective in Lebanon
   is to re-impose the hegemony it once had- without its army if it has to,
   and with if it can manage that. Amongits immediate priorities is to place
   its people in key security andadministrative posts, which may lead to
   friction with Hizbullah, which haspower over the main security agencies.
   Administrative nominations appear to bestalled, and reports suggest that
   Syria is responsible for this, onlyincreasing its leverage in the
   future.Lebanon may be a game of billiards, but it is Bashar Assad who is
   holding thecue. And one can use a cue for many things, not least striking
   the Lebanese atthe knees, an old Syrian specialty.Michael Young is opinion
   editor of THE DAILY STAR . His 'The Ghosts ofMartyrs Square: An Eyewitness
   Account of Lebanon-s Life Struggle'(Simon &amp;amp; Schuster) was recently
   published.(Description of Source: Beirut The Daily Star Online in English
   -- Website of the independent daily, The Daily Star; URL:
   http://dailystar.com.lb)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   41) Back to Top
   DPRK Party Organ Lauds Leader's 'Guts' on Warship 'Ch'o'nan,' 'Pueblo,'
   Other Incidents
   Article by reporter Cho'n Yo'ng-hu'i: "Outstanding Leadership That Has
   Embroidered the Victorious History With Matchless Gallantry and Guts"; The
   author's title in the byline provided by KPM may be different from that
   which appears in hard copy - Rodong Sinmun (Electronic Edition)
   Friday July 30, 2010 02:33:17 GMT
   being created on the Korean peninsula. The gang of South Korean puppets
   and traitors -- which fabricated a gross smear act, the incident of the
   sinking of the warship "Ch'o'nan" -- is bringing the situation to the
   brink of a war while babbling about "military retaliation" and so on. The
   one who masterminds this reckless anti-Republic, confrontational commotion
   behind the scenes is none other the United States. While accusing us as if
   we were to blame for the incident of the sinking of the warship that has
   occurred this time, the United States is widely spreading the rumors on
   "threats from North Korea" in the international arena. Regarding the
   incident that has occurred this time, the US Obama administration has
   ordered the US forces based in South Korea to maintain a combat posture to
   get ready for a Korean war and has forwardly depl oyed ultra-modern "F-22"
   fighters in Okinawa, Japan. The US imperialists are planning to conduct a
   joint anti-submarine exercise in the West Sea (Yellow Sea) of Korea with
   the South Korean puppet belligerent forces. Enormous forces, including a
   nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, "Aegis" destroyers, and a
   nuclear-powered submarine, will reportedly participate in this exercise.
   The anti-Republic, confrontational commotion that the US imperialists are
   kicking up with the incident of the warship "Ch'o'nan" as an opportunity
   is reaching an extreme point, and because of this the situation on the
   Korean peninsula is dashing headlong toward the threshold of a war.

   The world is closely watching the situation on the Korean peninsula --
   which is on the brink of explosion -- with serious concerns and
   apprehensions.

   The DPRK National Defense Commission (NDC), in its spokesperson's
   statement, made it clear our hard-line position that "We will respond to
   enemies' reckless 'response' with an all-out war of justice." Regarding
   our annihilate-the-enemy will and spirit to respond to "retaliation" with
   harsher retaliation and to "punishment" with our own style of
   indiscriminate punishment, the world is saying that military-first Korea
   is booming out again the sound of the gunfire of an ultra hard-line
   response.

   Today, while resolutely countering the enemies' atrocious anti-Republic,
   confrontational commotion, our army and people are achieving great leaps
   forward and great innovations with the thunderous drumbeat of the general
   offensive to open the gate of a powerful state. It is because they hold in
   high esteem Comrade Kim Jong Il (Kim Cho'ng-il) -- who is an
   ever-victorious, iron-willed commander -- as a great leader (ryo'ngdoja)
   that our army and people, while displaying their unyielding spiritual
   strength, are smashing the enemies' atrocious anti-Republic,
   confrontational comm otion and powerfully beating the drum of the victory
   of the great battle of powerful socialist state construction.

   Great leader Comrade Kim Il Sung (Kim Il-so'ng) taught as follows:

   "Comrade Kim Jong Il possesses indomitable will, audacity, outstanding
   strategies, and art of command, as the supreme commander of the
   revolutionary armed forces, and this is a guarantee for the ceaseless
   consolidation and development of our revolutionary armed forces and for
   their constant victories."

   The incident of the warship "Ch'o'nan" -- which is an anti-Republic act of
   fraud -- clearly shows the United States' invariable hostility toward the
   DPRK and its wild ambition for aggression, which is aimed at leading the
   political and military confrontation on the Korean peninsula to an extreme
   point and then igniting the fuse of a second Korean war without fail.

   The history of DPRK-US confrontation spans far more than half a century.
   During this pe riod, harsh tribulations have blocked the path ahead of us
   many times, because of t he military provocation maneuvers that the US
   imperialist aggressors and their stooges have ceaselessly perpetrated.
   But, our people have constantly prevailed by holding in high esteem the
   outstanding military-first commander who deals formidably heavy blows to
   the US imperialists with the revolutionary faith and will -- which remain
   steadfast in any thunder and lightning -- and with matchless gallantry and
   guts and with endlessly versatile strategies.

   DPRK-US confrontation is the confrontation of ideology and conviction and
   the confrontation of gallantry and guts. The commander's gallantry and
   guts are a guarantee of victory in the confrontation with enemies. Without
   gallantry and guts, it is impossible to avoid frustration and failures in
   confronting enemies, even if there are strategies. Thus, there is a
   proverb saying, one should build up guts before building up martial arts,
   i f he wants to become a brilliant commander. We are confronting the
   arrogant and wicked United States face to face and fighting with it, which
   is a self-claimed "sole superpower" of the world. This being the
   situation, it is impossible to prevail in the war of confrontation with
   the US imperialists without bold audacity and firm will.

   Great leader Comrade Kim Jong Il is the ever-victorious, iron-willed
   commander who is standing guard over the destiny of the fatherland and the
   nation and socialism while holding sway over the strong imperialist
   enemies with the strategies of sure victory and with matchless gallantry
   and guts that no one in the world has ever possessed. Viktor Kulikov,
   first deputy defense minister of the former Soviet Union and supreme
   commander of the Warsaw Treaty forces praised in his book, "The brilliant
   gallantry with which he fights, once he decides to fight, and he prevails;
   the firm resolve to respond to strength with strength a nd to overpower
   gun barrel with gun barrel; these are the traits of Comrade Kim Jong Il as
   a brilliant commander, who has made the Korean people a victor knowing no
   defeat in today's Cold War."

   What is shown by this cry of the heart of Kulikov who experienced the
   lesson of the former Soviet Union that collapsed because it had no right
   leader (ryo'ngdoja), even if it had powerful military strength?

   The world still vividly remembers it. Forty two years ago, in 1968, the
   armed spy ship "Pueblo," which was boasting about itself as a "hiding
   emperor" of the US Navy, was captured by our heroic people's army, while
   committing espionage acts after crawling into the territorial waters of
   our country. When this incident occurred, the attention of the world was
   focused on Korea. At the time, "Pueblo" was the newest-type armed spy ship
   of the US imperialists equipped with the most developed instruments and
   equipment. This spy ship dis guised as an "oceanography ship" was
   fulfilling an espionage mission while frequenting the waters of other
   countries in order to detect the situations of the ports and military
   targets of Pacific nations. Thus, when this spy ship was captured after
   intruding into the territorial waters of our Republic, the US imperialists
   ran amok like the herds of wolves hit by bullets, while screaming that
   this was the first of its kind in their history. Desperate in such a
   situation, the US imperialists concentrated enormous forces of aggression,
   more than enough to wage a modern war, in the vicinity of the Korean
   peninsula and oppressively intimidated and blackmailed in a way of
   ultimatum that our country must make an "apology" and must return
   "Pueblo"; otherwise, they would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons. This
   was the peak of shamelessness and arrogance.

   Precisely at this juncture, the respected and beloved general, when he was
   asked by the g reat leader to make a decision in the position of the
   supreme commander on how the case of "Pueblo" should be handled,
   resolutely said that he would never release the "Pueblo" crew, unless a
   letter of surrender is submitted by the United States, and that he would
   not return "Pueblo" but display it at a museum, because it is what has
   been gained from a battle.

   At one point in time, the respected and beloved general confidently said,
   the pomposity of the United States -- which looks down on small countries
   for the reason that the United States is a big country -- should be
   deflated. The tragedy of the United States lies in the fact that it still
   does not know the DPRK very well ...... (ellipses as published) The
   peoples of the world will see how we will receive a letter of surrender
   from the United States. The iron-willed conviction and unwavering
   gallantry and guts of the great general -- who remained steadfast in the
   midst of the milita ry threat of the United States that was falling upon
   us from all directions and the pressure of modern revisionists and who
   firmly defended the dignity and sovereignty of the country with ultra
   hard-line responses -- gave indomitable will and faith in victory to our
   people. Since then, our army and people overwhelmed the enemies with ultra
   hard-line responses thanks to the great general's gallantry and guts. In
   the end, the United States had to hang out the white flag to our people
   and apologize to them. Regarding the acute DPRK-US standoff surrounding
   the "Pueblo" incident at the time, a foreign publication said as follows:

   "During the 'Pueblo' incident, who had apologized and who had prevailed?
   It was the United States that had surrendered. The DPRK of President Kim
   Il Sung and General Kim Jong Il achieved a historic victory, while not
   backing away even a step in the military standoff with the United States.
   The documentary on the Caribbean Sea crisis is continuously shown not only
   in the United States but also around the world, but the DPRK-US military
   standoff surrounding the 'Pueblo' incident and the surrender of the United
   States are historically more meaningful incidents."

   "Pueblo" -- which is still being detained at the bank of Taedong River as
   our gain from the war of DPRK-US military confrontation -- is serving as a
   historic proof that shows our army and people's spirit of sure victory and
   their audacious guts, who never forgive but mercilessly mow down those who
   infringe on the sovereignty and security of military-first Korea, no
   matter who they are.

   In the DPRK-US standoff, the United States has never been able to escape
   the destiny of a disgraceful looser. The "EC-121" large spy plane incident
   and the "P'anmunjo'm incident" -- which have been recorded in history --
   as well show that the wars of the acute DPRK-US confrontation -- which
   broke out because of the United States' provocations -- always ended in
   the United States' surrenders and apologies and in our victories. The
   situation was embarrassing to the extent that even a high-ranking figure
   of the US military screamed, "North Korea is like a scorpion. If trodden
   on, it stings."

   The world still remembers the 1990s when the flaming clouds of a nuclear
   war loomed over the Korean peninsula.

   The US imperialists -- who had become more overbearing following the end
   of the Cold War -- frantically perpetrated a maneuver aimed at isolating
   and stifling our Republic and bringing down our own style of the socialist
   system centered on the popular masses by raising the so-called "nuclear
   issue." The US-led international "nuclear suspicion" racket kicked up
   against the Republic in 1993; the "special inspection" imposed on our
   nuclear facilities; the staging of the "Team Spirit" joint military
   exercise -- a large-scale nuclear war exercise; and putting the means of
   nuclear attacks and the forces of aggression into the Korean peninsula ...
   (ellipses as published); all these were the US imperialists' deliberate,
   brigandish, anti-Republic provocations and war maneuvers aimed at
   disarming and harming us. At this juncture, great leader Comrade Kim Jong
   Il audaciously led the war of DPRK-US nuclear confrontation to constant
   victories.

   By dropping a bombshell that our people -- who hold dear the sovereignty
   of the nation and the peace of the country -- do not desire a war but will
   not beg for peace, if their dignity is trampled underfoot, and that the
   enemies can never recklessly touch even an inch of the soil and a blade of
   grass of our Republic, the respected and beloved general gave a conviction
   of sure victory to our people and dealt heavy blows to the enemies. At the
   same time, he had us to take a strong countermeasure against the reckless
   maneuver of the United States that was incr easing the intensity of the
   military threat to and pressure on us with the "nuclear issue." In March
   1993, a semi-war state was declared to the entire country, the entire
   people, and the entire army through an order of the Korean People's Army
   (KPA) supreme commander, and then a statement of the Republic's government
   on our country's withdrawal from the NPT was announced. The United States
   succumbed to our ultra hard-line response and laid down the nuclear club
   and was dragged out into the site of DPRK-US talks against its will. It
   was another proud victory we had achieved and a historic event in the
   history of DPRK-US standoff that the DPRK-US Agreed Framework was adopted,
   and we received even the US President's letter of assurances. Regarding
   this, the peoples of the world were unable to hold back their amazement,
   while saying, "It is an event tantamount to cracking earth," and "it was a
   heavy blow of giving a stinging slap in the face of the b ig power."

   The war of DPRK-US standoff is still going on. The United States is
   talking about "change," "reconciliation," "stability on the Korean
   peninsula," and "preventing a war," but in actuality it has never given up
   its wild ambition to invade our Republic in order to hold a grip on Korea
   in its entirety and use it as a foothold for the reactionary strategy on
   Asia. The US imperialists have established a specific plan for a war of
   northward aggression, postulating a "contingency" on the Korean peninsula,
   and are running amok in trying to put the plan into implementation. It is
   not long ago that they openly raved about a preemptive nuclear strike
   against our Republic. The fabricated act of the warship "Ch'o'nan" this
   time, too, is an artifice aimed at bringing the situation on the Korean
   peninsula to a state of hypertension and lighting the fuse of a new Korean
   war with this as an excuse. Howeve r, our army and people are overpowering
   the United States' offensive of pressure on the DPRK with the guts and
   spirit of Mt Paektu given by the respected and beloved General Kim Jong Il
   -- who is the most brilliant commander under heaven -- and with the
   military-first might. It is our revolutionary way of response and our
   mettle to draw a sword, if enemies wield knives, and to level a cannon at
   the enemies, if they brandish rifles. No one in the world can withstand
   us, who hold in high esteem General Kim Jong Il, an outstanding
   military-first commander, who innately possesses the strong guts and
   gallantry -- with which he remains absolutely steadfast in all the storms
   and even before tens of millions of strong enemies -- and outstanding
   strategies and who have the spiritual strength of the millions of soldiers
   and people and the might of their single-hearted unity, which is more
   powerful than a nuclear weapon.

   Military-first Korea will eternally continue to add lust er to the history
   of constant victories in DPRK-US standoff, because it has the great
   general.

   (Description of Source: Pyongyang Rodong Sinmun (Electronic Edition) in
   Korean -- Daily of the Central Committee of the Workers Party of Korea;
   posted on the Korean Press Media (KPM) website run by the pro-Pyongyang
   General Association of Korean Residents in Japan; URL:
   http://dprkmedia.com)Attachments:DPRKoreaUSrelationsRS12Jul10.pdf

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   42) Back to Top
   US Urges PRC To Press DPRK To Stop Provocations, Abide by Denuclearization
   Pledge
   Updated version: "UPDATES with more details, background at bottom" per
   2237 GMT source update; Yonhap headl ine: "China Urged to Press N. Korea
   to Stop Provocations, Abide By Denuclearization Pledge: State Dept." by
   Hwang Doo-hyong - Yonhap
   Friday July 30, 2010 01:12:06 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   43) Back to Top
   China Remains Vigilant of US-ROK Military Drills
   Article by Li Daguang, professor of the National Defense University:
   "US-ROK Joint Military Exercise Was Eventually Started" - Liaowang
   Friday Ju ly 30, 2010 01:32:45 GMT
   The cause of the exercise was the "Ch'o'nan" incident, which led to much
   hubbub in the past few months. That was a rarely seen incident occurring
   in the western sea area of the Korean Peninsula for many years.

   In recent years, conflicts occurred between the navies of the south and
   north sides of the peninsula for several times. With the backing of the
   United States, plus the absolute superiority of the economic and
   technological power, the ROK Navy possessed absolute superiority. With its
   strong maritime force, the ROK never took the DPRK Navy seriously, and
   basically gained an upper hand in the confrontation between the two sides.
   The much weaker DPRK Navy continued to exist in an overpowered condition,
   and suffered losses almost in every maritime conflict. However, in the
   "Ch'o'nan" incident, the ROK Navy suffered a serious loss that was not
   seen over many years.

   Aft er the "Ch'o'nan" incident, the ROK government put the blame on the
   DPRK in a high-profile way, and submitted a resolution to the United
   Nations; and the DPRK also refuted the ROK in a high-profile manner. On 20
   May, the ROK government published the investigation report about the
   "Ch'o'nan" explosion and sinking incident. The report said that the
   warship's sinking had nothing to do with running against a rock, steel
   fatigue, and internal explosion. The report listed various evidence items,
   asserting that the "Ch'o'nan" was sunk after "being attacked by the DRPK
   military force with a torpedo". However, the investigation process and
   conclusion had many questionable points, and the current evidence was not
   sufficient in determining that the DPRK was the culprit.

   As of last June, the United States and the ROK threatened, with a big
   fanfare, to carry out a joint military exercise in the Yellow Sea. When
   the north and south sides of t he Korean Peninsula were locked in another
   round of confrontation because of the ship sinking incident, the holding
   of the US-ROK joint military exercise would just indicate that the United
   States and the ROK were intent on further escalating the tension on the
   Korean Peninsula.

   The US-ROK military exercise was aimed at giving a warning to the DPRK. On
   20 July, Kim Tae-Young, ROK minister of national defense, held talks with
   Robert Gates, US secretary of defense, at the ROK Ministry of National
   Defense. At the meeting, Kim Tae-young said: Through the "Ch'o'nan"
   incident, the ROK deeply felt the importance of the ROK-US alliance. On
   the same occasion, Gates said that the military exercise, which would
   contain antisubmarine and other drills, would "raise our long-range
   operation capability and confidence". He said that the main purpose of the
   military exercise was to give a "strong signal" to the DPRK.

   The joint statement published a fter the meeting of the two defense
   ministers said: The US-ROK joint military exercise in the Sea of Japan,
   which would began on 25 July, would be part of a series of military
   exercise activities between the two countries in a period to come, and
   would be an "exercise with defensive nature". It was aimed at making it
   clear to the DPRK that the DPRK "must stop the hostile actions", and the
   ROK and the United States would strengthen their joint defense capability
   for the peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.

   This time, the US-ROK joint military exercise was the largest-scale
   exercise carried out by the two militaries after 1976. The United States
   dispatched the aircraft carrier "George Washington" with a displacement is
   97,000 tons, three destroyers, and one submarine to take part in the
   military exercise. The Nimitz-class nuclear-powered aircraft carrier
   "George Washington" is one of the world's largest aircraft carrier. I t
   carries more than 6,000 American sailors and airmen and about 80 aircraft.
   Some American media held that the move of sending the "George Washington"
   to take part in the military exercise was to give an "intimidation" to the
   DPRK.

   The ROK side would dispatch a large-sized landing ship "Dokdo" with a
   displacement of 4,500 tons (as printed), several conventional warships,
   and multiple F-15K fighter aircraft to take part in the exercise. In
   addition, several latest F-22 fighters would be sent from the US base in
   Okinawa to join the ROK F-15K fighters and other more than 200 aircraft in
   taking part in the exercise. This would be the first time the F-22
   fighters appeared in a military exercise on the Korean Peninsula. The F-22
   fighter is a kind of advanced fighter aircraft that can carry out attacks
   on the DPRK nuclear facility in Nyongbyon within 30 minutes after
   take-off, and can carry out operations in the whole territory of the DPRK
   withi n one hour.

   John MacDonald, director of the ROK-US Combined Forces Command's operation
   bureau, said: "Four F-22 fighters will take part in the exercise's joint
   strike training. This is to demonstrate the importance of the ROK-US
   allied relationship." Reportedly, the US Cyber Command will also take part
   in the cyber defense drill in the exercise, and the US military may also
   carry out aerial refueling drills. The two defense ministers also stated
   that the two sides agreed to carry out a series of joint military
   exercises in the Sea of Japan and in the Yellow Sea in the next few
   months, but they did not reveal the timetable of the series exercises nor
   the number of forces, purposes, and specific venues of the exercises. The
   ROK and the United States will continue to carry out intensive
   consultations and formulate concrete plans for their future training. The
   two sides also discuss the follow-up measures related to the postponement
   of the operation command powe r transfer.

   In addition, the US and ROK authorities also expressed concern over the
   situation on the Korean Peninsula. The US force would continue to be
   stationed in the ROK and maintain the current size of 28,500 troops so as
   to guarantee a sufficient joint operation capability. On behalf of the US
   government, Gates once again promised to provide the nuclear protection
   umbrella for the ROK, and also provide conventional weapons and missile
   defense for the ROK. The ROK side emphasized the importance of maintaining
   the current alliance between the two countries.

   On the other hand, on 20 July, the US-led "UN Forces Command" notified the
   DPRK of the timetable of the joint military exercise in the Sea of Japan.
   The ROK Ministry of Defense notified the United States, Australia, Sweden,
   Britain, which took part in the investigation of the "Ch'o'nan" incident,
   China, Japan, Russia, and the 16 nations with personnel in the UN forces
   in the Korean Wa r of the timetable of the joint military exercise.

   At the very beginning, the ROK side once announced that the exercise would
   be carried out in the Yellow Sea, which is an area close to China's
   economic developed areas and political center; afterwards, the media once
   reported that the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier "George Washington"
   would sail to the Yellow Sea and take part in the exercise. This matter
   caused the Chinese side's serious attention. China openly expressed
   opposition to the holding of the US-ROK Yellow Sea joint exercise five
   times within a month.

   Though in his speech on 20 July, Gates particularly mentioned that the
   military exercise would not be a threat to China, as all people know,
   while the U S force, being the world's strongest force, stages a military
   exercise in an area close to China's territory, China cannot but maintain
   high vigilance. The military exercise carried out by the US military in
   the Sea of Japan may not pose a direct threat to China, but as it plays a
   weighty role in East Asia, the United States should act prudently and take
   the overall interests into account.

   This time, the change of the venue of the US-ROK joint military exercise
   from the Yellow Sea to the Sea of Japan indicated that the US side was
   clear that such event was never insignificant to China-US relations. The
   Chinese side should not feel like winning something while seeing that the
   US aircraft carrier "George Washington" did not come to the Yellow Sea,
   and should pay closer attention to the follow-up military exercises to be
   carried out by the United States and the ROK in the coming months, calmly
   watch the development of events, and prudently utter remarks.

   (Description of Source: Beijing Liaowang in Chinese -- weekly general
   affairs journal published by China's official news agency Xinhua, carrying
   articles on political, social, cultural, international, and economic
   issues)Attachments:lw0726 .pdf

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   44) Back to Top
   Xinhua 'Analysis': British PM Visit To India Focuses on Developing
   Economic And Trade Ties
   Xinhua "Analysis" by Wu Qiang : "British PM Visit To India Focuses on
   Developing Economic And Trade Ties" - Xinhua
   Friday July 30, 2010 00:26:31 GMT
   NEW DELHI, July 30 (Xinhua)-- British Prime Minister David Cameron
   Thursday wound up his two-day visit to India after holding talks with his
   Indian counterpart Manmohan Singh.

   He also attended Thursday an important British-Indian business forum with
   the top entrepreneurs of b oth countries here and attended the signing
   ceremony of a 1.1 billion-U.S. dollar project to jointly make 57 "Hawk"
   trainers for the Indian military in the southern city of Bangalore
   Wednesday.This visit was Cameron's first to a major developing country
   since assuming office and the first visit by a British PM to India since
   2005. He was accompanied by seven cabinet ministers and 50 British
   entrepreneurs as well as many people from the circles of education,
   culture and arts.Regarded as the largest ever delegation to India since
   India's Independence in 1947, the visit also showed the great importance
   paid by London to India.On the eve of his visit, Cameron published an
   article on British-Indian relations in the Indian daily The Hindu, in
   which he called for "a stronger, wider and deeper relationship" between
   the two countries, while emphasizing huge potentials in cooperative fields
   such as economy, trade and security.As per the agreement struck between
   New Delhi and London during Cameron's visit, one can see that economic and
   trade cooperation remain the focus bilateral relations. But the new
   characteristics of British-Indian relations can also be summarized as
   following:BRITIAN WISHES TO "RETURN" TO INDIA IN ECONOMIC FIELDDespite the
   fact that Britain was the former colonial power in India, its influence in
   the international arena has fallen greatly since World War II and its
   political and economic influence in India itself has also greatly
   diminished over the past several decades.Before he landed in India Tuesday
   evening, Cameron said he came here "in a spirit of humility". He said
   sentiment and "a shared history" can no longer build a new special
   relationship between the two countries and Britain must win its position
   in India though fierce international competition.The prime minister also
   pointed out that the aim of Britain is to again become one of the top five
   trading partners of India. Las t year, British-Indian trade fell to 4.5
   billion U.S. dollars, and Britain became India's 18th largest trading
   partner.The recent change of government in Britain was mainly caused by
   economic recession resulting from the global economic meltdown. After he
   came to power, Cameron carried out the largest deficit cut and economic
   austerity plan since Prime Minister Thatcher.London has realized that if
   Britain wants to recover from the economic slowdown, it must seek wider
   market overseas, especially in Asian countries. The Foreign Office has
   also launched a campaign of economic diplomacy. Under this
   circumstances,Cameron thus chose India as the first developing country to
   visit. The two governments agreed to carry out a wide-range of cooperation
   in all fields, increase investment in each other's country, and set up a
   CEO joint team to stimulate such endeavors.BRITAIN WANTS TO SHARE INDIA'S
   ARMS MARKETIndia is well-known for relying on foreign -- in particular
   Russian -- military equipment and technology to modernize its military
   forces, due to its limited home armament development capabilities. Over
   the past several years, India has been stepping up the purchase of foreign
   armaments.Britain, with its ownership of military high technology, wishes
   to share the Indian arms market. The Hawk project is one example of its
   efforts to do so. Besides this trainer, Britain also cooperates with India
   in Jaguar military aircraft production and it intends to build ships for
   India's Coast Guards.On the other hand, with restrictions of technology
   import from the U.S., India wishes to obtain advanced military and nuclear
   technology from Britain, which is an important member of NATO.BRITAIN AND
   INDIA OWN GREAT "SOFTWARE POWER" FOR DEVELOPING TIESDue to historical
   reasons, Britain and India have very close relations in people contacts
   and personnel exchange. India has some 2 million immigrants in Britain.
   The two countries also enjoy close ties in educatio n, academics, science
   research, arts, sports and other fields, which make up a huge "software
   power" for developing bilateral ties.During Cameron's visit, the two
   countries agreed to widen and deepen exchanges and cooperation in these
   fields. Britain also promise to continue absorbing the most talented
   people from India.CAMERON'S CRITICISM OF PAKISTAN DRAWS ATTENTIONDuring
   the visit, Cameron twice criticized Pakistan for not doing enough to crack
   down on terror groups on its soil. This could be regarded as an unusual
   gesture from London to boost the position of India, which has been blaming
   Pakistan for the 2008 Mumbai attacks.Political analysts and senior Indian
   officials immediately welcomed the British PM's remarks as "unusually
   blunt", but they also pointed out that the remarks came in the light of
   furthering defense ties as Britain clearly look at India as a potential
   buyer for defense equipment which may see the country breathe easy as it
   is recuper ating from recession which hit the country two years back.Some
   analysts also speculate that Cameron's new attitude towards Pakistan could
   signal a shift of policy of the United States and NATO in Afghanistan, as
   the Western countries might " encourage" India to be more actively
   involved in Afghanistan once NATO withdraws from the war-torn
   country.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's
   official news service for English-language audiences (New China News
   Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   45) Back to Top
   Software Push By University to Catch Up With U.S. - JoongAng Daily Online
   Friday July 30, 2010 00:37:4 4 GMT
   (JOONGANG ILBO) - Seoul's Sungkyunkwan University will establish a new
   department with the tentative name "software academy" to nurture future
   computer software developers starting next year.

   "Local corporations have a hard time recruiting quality talent in the
   software sector because they have long concentrated on hardware," the
   university's admissions head, Kim Yoon-jea, told the JoongAng Ilbo
   yesterday. "This new department aims to nurture talent that will meet the
   demand of corporations, much like the university's semiconductor systems
   engineering department."Sungkyunkwan's plan benefits students who enter
   the academy, providing some with four-year full scholarships and
   assistance with dormitory expenses. The university plans to admit 30
   students for the four-year course in the next academic year and will
   initially select students by an early admissions process that starts next
   mo nth. The university wants to expand the number of students in the
   course to 100.The idea of establishing a software engineering department
   was inspired by Yi Ko'n-hu'i (Lee Kun-hee), CEO of Samsung Electronics. In
   a recent meeting with university officials, Lee said that Samsung
   Electronics alone needs 30,000 software researchers, but Korea only has
   18,000.Lee went on to say that Samsung will hire the remaining 12,000
   researchers from countries overseas, such as software powerhouse
   India."State universities in the United States run collegiate honor
   programs and provide incentives to talented students so as not to lose
   them to Ivy League schools," another official from Sungkyunkwan University
   said. "We're taking a similar strategy to attract talented students who
   plan to apply for popular departments such as medical studies."Shin
   Dong-ryeol, dean of the university's information, communication and
   engineering department, said many young Koreans neglect the software
   sector. "For many Korean students, software is a 4-D industry, meaning
   it's difficult, dangerous, dirty, and doesn't guarantee a rosy future,"
   Shin said. "Even top universities like Seoul National University and Kaist
   failed to get full enrollment in their computer engineering
   departments."To realize its ambitious plan, Sungkyunkwan University
   already recruited four Kaist professors who specialize in software
   research and development. It plans to recruit software experts from
   international giants such as Intel, Microsoft and Qualcomm.The university
   plans to offer professor positions even if applicants don't have
   doctorates."Korea has the world's best technology in making (hardware
   products), but there are very few Koreans who can work on architecture or
   develop a platform that runs smartphones, such as Apple's iOS or Google's
   Android," Shin said.(Description of Source: Seoul JoongAng Daily Online in
   English -- Website of English-languag e daily which provides
   English-language summaries and full-texts of items published by the major
   center-right daily JoongAng Ilbo, as well as unique reportage; distributed
   as an insert to the Seoul edition of the International Herald Tribune;
   URL: http://joongangdaily.joins.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   46) Back to Top
   Report Says US, India, Israel, Russia Working Against Pakistan
   Report by Javed Rashid: "1,200 RAW Operatives Asigned to Afghanistan To
   Carry Out Actions Against Pakistan"-- Words in quotation marks as
   published - Jang
   Thursday July 29, 2010 16:43:46 GMT
   It i s being said that the Indian Government, supported by the United
   States, the United Kingdom, Russia, and Israel, has started work on
   actions against Pakistan. It has been learned that the infamous agencies
   of the four countries have started targeting Pakistan. "CIA" and "Mossad"
   are cooperating with India to act against Pakistan. It has been disclosed
   that Operation Baluchistan has been assigned Code 222, Three Two via
   Dubai; Karachi Code Four Square via South Africa, while Waziristan, Wana,
   and other tribal areas have been assigned Code Beirut and NATO (as
   published). Terrorism will be further fueled in Baluchistan, and forces
   will be targeted in coming days. Moreover, top officials may also be
   targeted. It has been learned that senior "RAW" officials called on the
   US, Russian, and Afghan intelligence officials to share the results of
   teams monitoring Pakistan.

   The Indian "RAW" will work on targeting "ISI" (Inter Serv ices
   Intelligence). Meanwhile, other secret services will assist India. It has
   been learned that Dalmiya got training from the German intelligence
   agency. CIA officials in Afghanistan particularly trust the German
   intelligence in Afghanistan.

   (Description of Source: Rawalpindi Jang in Urdu  The War, an
   influential, largest circulation newspaper in Pakistan, circulation of
   300,000. One of the moderate Urdu newspapers, pro-free enterprise,
   politically neutral, supports improvement in Pakistan-India relations)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   47) Back to Top
   IMF Approves $15 Mln Stand-By Arrangement For Ukraine - ITAR-TASS
   Thursday Ju ly 29, 2010 08:59:58 GMT
   intervention)

   WASHINGTON, July 29 (Itar-Tass) -- The Executive Board of the
   International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Thursday approved a 29-month 15.15
   billion-U.S. dollar Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for Ukraine in support of
   the country's economic reform.Kiev might receive 1.89 billion U.S. dollars
   immediately after the program's adoption.The previous IMF program for
   Ukraine has been cancelled. According to earlier reports, it was suspended
   over the failure of Ukraine's former authorities to fulfill a number of
   its terms and conditions."Ukraine is emerging from a difficult period
   during which the economy was severely hit by external shocks and
   exacerbated by domestic vulnerabilities. The authorities are committed to
   addressing existing imbalances and putting the economy on a path of
   durable growth, through important fiscal, energy, and financial sector
   reforms," John Lipsky, First Deputy M anaging Director and Acting Chair,
   said following the board's discussions."At the core of the authorities'
   economic program is a comprehensive consolidation strategy to safeguard
   fiscal sustainability. Fiscal adjustment will start in 2010 and deepen in
   2011-2012 backed by robust structural reforms of the pension system,
   public administration, and the tax system," he said.He also dwelled on the
   reforms in Ukraine's gas sector. In his words, such reforms will include
   "domestic price hikes and broader reforms supported by other multilateral
   institutions, which will help eliminate energy subsidies and create a more
   modern and viable sector, while protecting the most vulnerable with better
   targeted social assistance programs."According to Lipsky, another major
   direction of reforms is "to rehabilitate the financial system and enhance
   the National Bank of Ukraine's independence and accountability.""The
   planned recapitalization of banks and steps t o strengthen the supervisory
   and institutional framework are essential to restore financial stability,
   tackle the mounting problem of impaired assets, and eliminate impediments
   for robust economic recovery," he stressed.In an annex to the press
   release, the IMF summed up the Ukrainian government's economic plans it
   intends to support. Such plans include reducing the general government
   deficit to 3.5 percent of GDP in 2011 and to 2.5 percent of GDP in 2012,
   and "setting public debt firmly on a downward path below 35 percent by
   2015," as well as initiating "reforms to modernize the gas sector and
   eliminate Naftogaz's deficit starting from 2011."(Description of Source:
   Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerc e.

   48) Back to Top
   RMRB Interviews PRC Academic on 'Theory of China's Economic
   Responsibility'
   Report by Staff Reporter Cui Peng: "Renminbi Exchange Rate Has Not Been
   Undervalued! (Responding to the 'Theory of China's Economic
   Responsibility') -- Interview WithHe Weiwen, Director of the China-US
   Economics and Trade Research Center at University of International
   Business and Economics" - Renmin Ribao Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 15:57:55 GMT
   He Weiwen: Absolutely not. According to the real effective exchange rate
   indexes for major currencies in June released by the Bank for
   International Settlements on 15 July, the index for the renminbi was
   118.8, a drop of 0.98% from the May figure of 119.97. However, this was
   mainly because of the appreciation of the Euro, the Japan ese yen and the
   pound sterling. This in fact shows that the renminbi exchange rate was
   fluctuating both ways and was moving more and more in line with changes in
   the international market.

   In its calculation of the exchange rate index, the Bank for International
   Settlements set the average exchange rate level at 100 in 2005. Calculated
   on this basis, the real effective exchange rate index for the renminbi in
   June this year was 118.8, meaning that it had gone up by 18.8% in
   cumulative terms since the exchange rate reform in 2005. In the same
   month, the US dollar index was 94.31, meaning that it had dropped by 5.69%
   since 2005. The Euro index was 92.59, representing a drop of 7.41%; the
   yen index was 100.61, up 0.61%; and the pound sterling index was 81.38,
   down 18.62%. From these we can say that the extent of appreciation of the
   renminbi over the past five years was obviously the biggest.

   The real effective exchange rate of the renminbi had gone both up and down
   in the past five years. The index reached its highest point of 126.06 in
   February 2009 and had dropped by 5.76% by June this year. Why? Because the
   renminbi was pegged with the US dollar at that time and the dollar
   exchange rate was at a high level. The dollar index was 99.42 that month.
   Today, with the dollar index dropping by 5.24%, it is by no means strange
   to see fluctuations in the renminbi exchange rate. When we analyze this
   issue, we should not cut history apart but should base our judgment on the
   entire process.

   We will be able to see the picture more clearly by looking further back in
   time. In January 1994, the renminbi exchange rate index was 75.97, the US
   dollar index was 94.21, the Euro (known as the European Currency Unit at
   that time) index was 98.05, and the yen and pound sterling indexes were
   128.05 and 90.99 respectively. On this basis, the renminbi has risen by
   56.38% and the dollar by 0.11%, while the Euro, the Japanese yen and the
   pound sterling ha ve dropped by 5.57%, 21.43% and 10.56% respectively. In
   other words, only the renminbi has appreciated substantially, the dollar
   remains at the same level, and all other major currencies have fallen.

   Thus, accusations that the renminbi exchange rate has been forced down and
   is continuously falling are totally contrary to facts and go against
   professional knowledge. US Trade Deficit With China Has Nothing To Do With
   Renminbi Exchange Rate

   Reporter: China's trade surplus is a focal point of the West's attack
   against the renminbi exchange rate. Do you think the US trade deficit with
   China has to do with renminbi undervaluation?

   He Weiwen: China's trade surplus increased rapidly between 2005 and 2008.
   Interestingly, those were also years when the floating exchange rate of
   the renminbi against the dollar had risen by 21.2% in cumulative terms. In
   2009, there was no change in the renminbi exchange rate against the dollar
   but the trade surplus fell by nearly US $100 billion to US$196.06 billion.
   Obviously there are no direct correlations between level of the renminbi
   exchange rate and foreign trade surplus.

   Although China is having a considerable trade surplus at present, the
   figures vary great ly between different trading partners. In the first
   half of this year, China's trade surplus totaled US$55.3 billion,
   including a combined deficit of US$101.46 billion with Japan, the ROK and
   Taiwan and surpluses of US$77.05 billion and US$62.03 billion with the
   United States and the European Union respectively. During this period, the
   renminbi exchange rate dropped against the Japanese yen, remained steady
   against the dollar and fell after going up against the Euro. According to
   the trade weighted exchange rates of the Bank for International
   Settlements, the weight of the Japanese yen, the Korean won and the Taiwan
   dollar in renminbi was 31.6% while that of the US dollar and the Euro was
   21% and 18.6% respectively. China has trade de ficits with countries
   having the biggest weight index. How can the exchange rate be used to
   explain the US trade deficits with China?

   In fact, the main reasons for China's trade surplus is that it has played
   concrete parts in international division of labor and in the international
   flow of goods formed in the industrial chains. This is clearly manifested
   in relations between the United States, Canada and Mexico and between
   Germany and the East European countries.

   The United States registered an increase of 53.7% in global exports in
   cumulative terms between 1997 and 2009. During this period, its exports to
   China rose by 443.4%, 8.26 times faster than the former. If the renminbi
   exchange rate was indeed undervalued, how do you explain this opposite
   result? The increase in US exports to China was 1.19 times the increase in
   US imports from China. However, the global trade situation of the United
   States during this time was quite to the contrary, with import growth
   outpacing export growth by 1.47 times. This is an obvious indication that
   compared with the currencies of other major trading partners of the United
   States, the renminbi exchange rate has not been undervalued and is in fact
   slightly to the United States' advantage. Imbalance of World Economy
   Mainly Due to Imbalance in United States

   Reporter: The Economic Policy Institute of the United States published a
   report entitled "Unfair China Trade Costs Local Jobs" in March this year,
   saying that trade deficits with China have displaced 2.41 million jobs in
   the United States over the past seven years. Is this conclusion
   scientific?

   He Weiwen: This conclusion simply cannot stand close examination. In 1999
   and 2000, US trade deficits with China increased by US$11.77 billion and
   US$15.1 billion respectively while jobs increased by 3.172 million and
   2.005 million respectively. In 2001, 1.78 million jobs were lost although
   US trade deficits with China decreased. T here was no change in the
   renminbi exchange rate against the dollar during this period. In 2008, the
   number of unemployed in the manufacturing sector increased by 473,000. The
   number soared to 1.523 million in 2009, but trade deficit with China
   posted a sharp drop of US$41.2 billion from a year ago. There was also not
   much change in the renminbi exchange rate against the dollar over this
   period. It is obvious that the unemployment problem in the United States
   has no correlations with China's trade surplus or the renminbi exchange
   rate.

   The root cause for changes in the US unemployment rate lies in economic
   cycles and productivity. Between 2001 and 2003, output in the US
   manufacturing sector dropped by 5.01% in cumulative terms but productivity
   increased by 15.15%. Theoretically there should be a job loss of 3.02
   million, but actually only 2.896 million jobs were lost. The two figures
   are quite close. Between 2008 and 2009, output in the manufacturing sector
   dropped by 9.6% while productivity rose by 5.9%. Theoretically there
   should be a job loss of 1.907 million but the actual number of jobs lost
   was 1.996 million. The two figures were also were close, proving once
   again that they have no correlation with the renminbi exchange rate.

   Views in the West that the imbalance of the world economy was also due to
   the undervalued ren minbi exchange rate are even more unreasonable. Let us
   not concern ourselves with the established fact that the root cause of the
   international financial crisis lies in Wall Street's greed and US
   financial institutions getting out of control and only look at the
   prevailing arguments about the imbalance of the world economy. Actually
   this imbalance is due to imbalance in the United States. More
   specifically, the United States has a huge current account deficit, but
   the amounts are not too big for other deficit countries.

   The US current account deficit saw a big drop in 2009 mainly because its
   trade defic it registered a substantial drop of US$315.26 billion. Of
   this, 63% came from a smaller trade deficit in mineral fuels (mainly crude
   oil). The primary reason for US trade deficit is the energy problem, the
   cornerstone of which is oil price. The core of oil price lies in the
   solution of speculative futures trading in the United States and Britain,
   that is, the financial issue. Only by properly resolving this issue will a
   big part of the problem of US trade deficits be resolved.

   Another important reason for US trade deficits is that multinational
   companies are shifting their production bases and setting up subsidiaries
   abroad and then importing goods back from these subsidiaries to maximize
   their profits. This is called "buying one's own goods." According to the
   2007 base figure, the deficit (with China) would be reduced by at least
   US$234.5 billion if this factor is taken out of the equation and would
   only account for 28.2% of the (total) trade deficits that year.

   Thus, the United States should bear the main responsibility for resolving
   the imbalance of the world economy. It should put its own house in order
   rather than always putting the blame on China. Maintaining Exchange Rate
   Stability is Manifestation of China Assuming Its Responsibility As A Major
   Power

   Reporter: If this is the case, why is it that the theory of "the
   undervalued renminbi exchange rate," which has no scientific basis
   whatsoever, hotly disputed in individual countries in the West, and why is
   China repeatedly asked to "assume its responsibility as a major power"?

   He Weiwen: Actually the major critics of the renminbi exchange rate issue
   are a handful of US members of congress. Senator Charles Schumer did not
   major in economics and is not an expert on exchange rates. Obviously he
   had his reasons for doing what he did.

   First, political needs at home. At a time of weak US economic recovery and
   high unemployment, mak ing a scapegoat of other countries is the simplest
   and most beguiling method. With the Democratic Party facing a grim
   situation in mid-term elections, some analysts believe the Democratic
   Party may lose its position as the majority party in the House of
   Representatives, which is why they must do their best to win labor votes
   and make job increase their major slogan. Solving the employment problem
   requires money from the government, including tax cuts and subsidies for
   employers and relief for employees. The Obama administration needs to
   spend between US$30 billion and US$50 billion at least to create jobs for
   2 million people. However, the federal government cannot afford the money
   with its high deficits. Putting the blame on China does not cause any
   money and allows them to shirk responsibility while winning votes. This is
   a good business with small investment and big profits.

   Second, the need to shirk responsibility for the international financial
   crisis. Since the financial crisis was mainly caused by the United States,
   it is only natural that it should pick up the tab for the consequences. A
   very absurd argument has now cropped up. It says the United States and
   China should share the responsibility, because the undervalued renminbi
   exchange rate has resulted in China's huge trade surplus and led to excess
   liquidity in the United States. If China does not accept this, it is not
   assuming its responsibility as a major power, and China is to blame should
   crisis erupt again in future.

   This kind of accusation is very absurd. To say nothing about how much of
   China's surplus has turned into US liquidity, had it not been because of
   Wall Street's greed, had financial institutions not not gone so terribly
   out of control, and had the United States done everything according to
   rules, would the subprime crisis have taken place at all? How could it
   have produced the domino effect as it did?

   Third, the need to curb China. If we looked back at the consequences of
   the United States forcing the Japanese yen to appreciate, it would not be
   difficult to see its intentions in forcing the renminbi to appreciate.
   However, gone is the history of unilateral attempts to force a sovereign
   state to make sacrifices. China will never sacrifice its own development
   to suit the needs of the inhibitor.

   Facts have told us that the renminbi exchange rate has not affected the
   process of world economic recovery. History in the past two decades told
   us that major fluctuations in international monetary markets would always
   be followed by economic turmoil or recession.

   The foundation of world economic recovery remains fragile and the European
   debt crisis is just showing signs of stabilizing. The common
   responsibility of China and other major powers is to join hands to
   maintain the basic stability of the exchange rates of major currencies
   like the US dollar, the Euro, the renminbi, the Japanese yen and the pound
   sterli ng, prevent major fluctuations in the monetary market, prevent a
   resurgence of financial speculation, and create a basic environment for
   the steady recovery of the world economy and world trade for this purpose.
   In addition, China also needs to do its utmost to ensure steady and fast
   economic growth and provide a strong market and strong confidence for the
   world economy and world trade. This alone is China's best performance as a
   responsible major power.

   (Description of Source: Beijing Renmin Ribao Online in Chinese -- Online
   version of the daily newspaper (People's Daily) of the CPC Central
   Committee. URL: http://paper.people.com.cn)Attachments:rmrb0728rmb.pdf

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   49) Back to Top
   ZTS Special Article Questions Motive of Exaggerating PRCs Naval
   Strength
   Special Article by Hong Kong ZTS contributing reporter Shi Ren: The
   Motive of Exaggerating Chinas Naval Strength Provides Much Food for
   Thought - Zhongguo Tongxun She
   Thursday July 29, 2010 15:32:06 GMT
   Jin Canrong, a Chinese expert of international studies, said: In the
   crisis of the Taiwan Strait in 1996, the commander of the US Pacific
   Command laughed at China, saying how China was able to send the soldiers
   across the sea. However, in 2006, the then defense secretary cried out in
   alarm that the military strength of China's mainland had far exceeded the
   need to deal with the Taiwan Strait. "The change in their remarks has
   shown that the Chinese Navy has indeed made globally recognized
   achievements. However, it is obvious that China is a new player on the
   sea. Co mpared with the United States, which has been on the sea with
   great ease for more than 100 years, China's concern over sea power has
   remained only in the 'fetal stage'."

   A Sweden expert said: Taking a panoramic view of the world history, one
   will find that all European and American powers have attached great
   importance to sea power. Up to the present, the US armed forces still
   practice the principle of "wiping out the enemy on the sea, instead of
   bringing them to our territory." Therefore, it is not difficult to
   understand that when China has become strong, its navy can very easily
   touch "a sensitive nerve of the Westerners."

   Regarding the "bold assumption" of the US scholar, a commentary of
   Britain's "Financial Times" said, "National defense literature is always
   flooded with daydreams of upcoming outbreaks of wars and China has always
   attracted such attention." "However, China is indeed taking a more
   confrontational strategy to safeguard it interests in that region." As a
   matter of fact, for some time, the Western media are flooded with the
   concern about the greatly increased strength of the Chinese Navy.

   "Is it true that China and the United States will inevitably have a war in
   this century?" When a "Global Times" reporter asked David M. Finkelstein,
   the director of China studies of the "Center for Naval Analyses," a famous
   institution that collects large quantities of research data for the US
   Navy, about this, his first reaction was a "shock."

   David M. Finkelstein said: Neither the United States nor China should
   lightly put forward such a "disastrous" assumption. "What we should ask is
   how the two countries should build up trust and manage differences,
   instead of asking whether or not conflicts can be avoided." David M.
   Finkelstein also warned that since the scopes of movement of the navies of
   the two countries "are continuously getting closer and closer," if no good
   communication mechanism can be established, this "will lead to some
   unnecessary risks and incidents we do not want to see as what happed in
   the past."

   Bernard D. Cole, an expert of Chinese Studies of the US National War
   College, also shared the same view: "There are bound to be various kinds
   of differences between China and the United States, but I see no problem
   in the future that should make us assume that a war will break out between
   the two countries. Most people of our two countries do not understand the
   details about the progress in our naval or diplomatic affairs."

   (Description of Source: Hong Kong Zhongguo Tongxun She in Chinese --
   PRC-owned press agency (China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding u se may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   50) Back to Top
   Pakistan Press Nawa-e Waqt 29 Jul 10
   To request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735. - Nawa-e Waqt
   Thursday July 29, 2010 15:26:36 GMT
   pictures on page 1 show rescue workers searching for bodies amid wreckage
   of the plane that crashed into Margalla Hills of Islamabad, relatives of
   passengers wailing over tragedy, and Information Minister Qamar Zaman
   Kaira addressing news conference. Lead Story: Report by special
   correspondent: Passenger plane of private company hits Margalla Hills; 152
   killed; mourning announced across country today

   Interior Minister Rehman Malik said that all aspects, including
   subversion, would be looked upon. (pp 1, 9; 1,200 words) Rel ated News:
   Report by Mohammad Nawaz Raza: How plane entered into red zone despite
   being in right direction? Why green signal for landing given when clouds
   enveloped airport? (pp 1, 9; 400 words) Report by special correspondent:
   Lower flight by plane, heading toward Margalla Hills, permission for
   landing in stormy weather; not heading toward alternative airport? Civil
   aviation experts will have to focus on these questions (pp 1, 9; 300
   words) Report by special correspondent: Prime Minister orders immediate
   investigation into incident (pp 1, 9; 100 words) Report by Sajjad Tirin:
   Tragic accident of plane; sorrowful atmosphere grips country (pp 1, 9; 300
   words) Report by special correspondent: 13 lucky persons did not get into
   plane; some got booking cancelled at eleventh hour (pp 1, 9; 200 words)
   Report by special correspondent: Two American nationals were also on board
   plane (pp 1, 9; 100 words) Nawa-e Waqt report: Airport runway was not
   blocked before plane crash: Manager (pp 1, 9; 100 words) Report by special
   correspondent: There is need to make investigation transparent, make
   report public: Wing commander (retired) Nasim Ahmed (pp 1, 9; 200 words)
   Report from monitoring desk: Plane crashed due to pilot error; last
   conversation comes to light; warning was given to plane that it was
   getting away from runway (pp 1, 9; 200 words) Report by special
   correspondent: Was there a plan to hit plane against some important
   building? (pp 1, 9; 100 words) Report by Waqar Abbasi: Youth parliament
   prime minister, six members also killed (pp 1, 9; 400 words) Report by
   special correspondent: Horrific explosion occurred as plane struck
   Margalla Hills: Deputy inspector general police (pp 1, 9; 300 words)
   Report by special correspondent: 107 relatives of crash victims brought to
   Islamabad from Karachi by special flight (pp 1, 9; 200 words) Report by
   special correspondent: PIMS administration confirms receiving 70 bodies
   (pp 1, 9; 300 words) Report by special corres pondent: Black box not
   found; special center set up to hand over dead bodies; close relatives
   should get themselves registered: Information minister (pp 1, 9; 600
   words) Page 2: News From Islamabad, Rawalpindi

   Page 2 has a column besides local news and advertisements. Column by
   Rafique Dogar: See sun rising in Sargodha

   The column discusses defeat of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) in
   by-elections in Sargodha. (800 words) Page 3: National, International
   Reports

   The page 3 has national and international news. APP report: Southern
   Afghanistan; foreign solider killed in Taliban attack (p 3; 80 words)
   Report by special: Setting up of power commission only way to prevent
   targeted killings in Karachi: Hashmat Habib (pp 3, 10; 300 words) Page 4:
   News From Suburbs Column by Dr Ajmal Niazi: There are other sorrows in
   life apart from love

   The column discusses Nawaz Sharif's remarks over the extension in the
   service of Army chief. (1,000 words) Page 5: S pecial edition on fan
   manufacturing industry Page 6: Advertisements Page 7: Classified Ads Page
   8: Continuation of Reports From Other Pages Page 9: Continuation of
   Reports From Other Pages Page 10: Continuation of Reports From Other Pages
   Page 11: Sports World Page 12: National, International Reports

   Prominent pictures on page 12 show delegation of task force on education
   meeting President Asif Ali Zardari, and Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani
   chairing meeting on economic situation. The lower half of the page has
   quarter-page advertisements. Nawa-e Waqt report: Some other dictator may
   impose martial law if judicial review powers clipped: Chief Justice

   In his remarks during hearing on 18th Amendment, chief justice has said
   that those imposing martial law always assailed basic structure of
   constitution. (pp 8, 12; 500 words) Online report: Religious scholars
   should play important role for interfaith harmony: President Zardari (pp
   8, 12; 200 words) Report by spec ial correspondent: We are scrutinizing
   degrees on daily basis; facing tremendous pressure; media giving political
   color: HEC Vice chancellors (pp 8, 12; 400 words) Reuters report: Contacts
   with militant forces not proper; Pakistan should take action against
   groups promoting terrorism: British prime minister (pp 8, 12; 400 words)
   BBC report: Pakistan dismisses David Cameron's statement (pp 8, 12; 200
   words) Report by special correspondent: Pakistan is my country; will
   return: Pervez Musharraf (pp 8, 12; 200 words) Report by special
   correspondent: We will extend every possible cooperation for peace in
   Balochistan: Interior minister (pp 8, 12; 200 words) Nawa-e Waqt report:
   Connection with Faisal Shahzad; report regarding five missing persons
   sought (pp 8, 12; 100 words) Online report: Plane crash tragic; no
   subversion made: Defense minister (pp 8, 12; 300 words) Report by special
   correspondent: Crash should thoroughly be investigated, made public:
   Senators (pp 8, 12; 300 words ) Report from monitoring desk: Plane was out
   of safety area; appears to be pilot error: PIA chief (pp 8, 12; 100 words)

   Report by special correspondent: Army prevents people, media from going to
   site of crash (pp 8, 12; 200 words) Nawa-e Waqt report: Hardships faced in
   rescue operation: Gen Nadeem; there is no report about recovery of black
   box (pp 8, 12; 200 words) INP news report: I did not fulfill many desires
   of Zardari; refused to allot 14,000 canal land to Prime Minister Gilani's
   sons: Outgoing Azad (Pakistan-administered)Kashmir prime minister (pp 8,
   12; 400 words) APP report: Zardari to visit UK in August (pp 8, 12; 200
   words) Report by special correspondent: Decision about two weekly holidays
   should be revised: Shahbaz Sharif (pp 8, 12; 100 words) Report by special
   correspondent: Rains wreak havoc; 39 die in several cities (pp 8, 12; 300
   words) Report by special correspondent: We have finalized preparations for
   long march; mob of people to enter into Islamaba d after Id: Haider Zaman,
   Hazara province leader (pp 8, 12; 500 words) Report by Ittrat Jaffery:
   Collection of general sales tax; consensus evolved between center,
   provinces (pp 8, 12; 300 words) Page 13: Feature Report Report by Javed
   Siddique: Air Blue 202; passengers of valley of death; why accident
   occurred; what was cause of delay in landing on runway; investigation
   continues (1,000 words) Page 14: Editorial, Lead Articles

   Page 14 has editorials and articles besides the regular gossip column "By
   the way" and regular series of Islamic teachings from the Koran. It also
   has couplets from Allama Iqbal and Muzaffar Warsi, and a saying of
   Qaid-e-Azam. Editorial: Shifting of heavy conventional arms by US, UK to
   Afghanistan; we should worry about our security

   The editorial discusses a report published by an English daily that US has
   shipped large quantities of arms to Afghanistan that pose great threat to
   human lives. Presence of such large quantity of a rms near Pakistani
   border poses a permanent threat to peace and security of region. (800
   words) Editorial: Deplorable accident of private plane

   The editorial deplores the tragic crash of passenger plane and suggests
   transparent inquiry. (200 words) Editorial: Baluchistan; resolve issue
   with prudence, sagacity

   The editorial discusses statement of interior minister that some 100,000
   settlers have so far migrated from Balochistan. The government should
   ascertain causes behind hatred. (300 words) Article by Javed Qureshi:
   Fruitless talks between foreign ministers of Pakistan, India (last
   episode) (500 words) Article by Khalid H Lodhi: 'Those in field of
   journalism should also hold themselves accountable' (800 words) Article by
   Aziz Zafar Azad: Benefactors of PPP...General Gul Hassan, Gen Kayani
   (1,000 words) Page 15: Articles

   Page 15 has articles on national and international issues. Article by
   Justice (ret) Manzur Hussein Gilani: Are liberated parts of Jamm u and
   Kashmir state constitutional enigma or part of Pakistan? (1,000 words)
   Article by Fazal Hussein Awan: Siachen; withdrawal of forces not solution
   to problem (600 words) Article by Sultan Mahmud Hali: Plight of Indian
   Army (800 words) Article by Suhail Anjum Malik: Benefits, losses of
   friendship with Jews, Christians (800 words) Page 16: Politics

   Page 16 has articles and reports with pictures on domestic political
   scene. Article by Nawaz Raza: Extension in service of army chief; decision
   political, or administrative; Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) terms it outcome of US
   pressure (1,000 words) Article by Salman Ghani: Extension in service of
   army chief dominates political scenario; another blow to PML-N; loses seat
   in Sargodha after fake degrees issue (1,000 words) Article by Ahmed Kamal
   Nizami: Will four big remain safe until 2013; 3-year extension in army
   chief's service; final round between PPP, PML-N likely after Id (1,000
   words) Article by Yousaf Khan: Government's writ required for law, order
   in Karachi (800 words)

   (Description of Source: Rawalpindi Nawa-e Waqt in Urdu -- Privately owned,
   widely read, conservative Islamic daily, with circulation around 125,000.
   Harshly critical of the US and India)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   51) Back to Top
   Xinhua 'Roundup': Vietnam To Host First ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting
   Plus in October
   Xinhua "Roundup": "Vietnam To Host First ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting
   Plus in October" - Xinhua
   Thursday July 29, 2010 13:39:21 GMT
   HANOI, July 29 (Xinhua) -- Vietnam will host the first ASEAN Defense
   Ministers' Meeting Plus (ADMM-Plus) in the capital city Hanoi on Oct. 12
   this year, said Vietnamese Deputy Minister of Defense Nguyen Chi Vinh here
   at a press conference on Thursday.

   The meeting is expected to draw defense ministers from member countries of
   the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and eight ASEAN
   dialogue partners including Australia, China, India, Japan, the Republic
   of Korea, New Zealand, Russia and the United States, and representatives
   from the ASEAN Secretariat, said Vinh.Vinh said that the meeting marks a
   new development in the cooperation between ASEAN and its dialogue partners
   to deal with increasingly complicated and transnational security issues.
   It is aimed at building trust and confidence among participating
   countries.The conference takes place in the context that peace and
   development has become a tendency and cross-border non-traditional
   challenges are emerging which a single country cannot solve, he
   said.During the upc oming meeting, the defense ministers are expected to
   discuss a variety of issues including humanitarian aid, disaster relief,
   maritime security, counter-terrorism, and peace- keeping
   operations.Vietnam, as the host country for the meeting and ASEAN Chair
   this year, wants to discuss a new regional security structure and
   cooperation to address non-traditional challenges, according to Vinh.To
   prepare for the meeting, Vietnam has held several meetings among ASEAN
   senior defense officials and ASEAN defense ministers to prepare the agenda
   and program activities for the first ADMM- Plus, Vinh said.Vietnamese
   officials will also visit ASEAN partners like China, Russia and the United
   States for consultations about the issues related to the meeting, he
   said.The ADMM-Plus is a unique forum as it is a place where defense
   ministers from big and small, rich and poor countries and countries with
   different ideologies sit together and talk about peace, cooperation and
   development, said Vinh. The meeting is of symbolic and historical
   significance. A Joint Declaration to be issued at the end of the meeting
   will be of great importance, reflecting the political will and commitments
   for practical cooperation of defense ministers from participating
   countries for peace, stability and development in the region and the
   interests of each country, said Vinh.(Description of Source: Beijing
   Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language
   audiences (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   52) Back to Top
   Freed Dissident Arrives in US, Lashes Out Against Cuban Government
   "Freed Cuban dissident arrives in U.S." -- EFE Headline - EF E
   Thursday July 29, 2010 01:00:42 GMT
   (Description of Source: Madrid EFE in English -- Independent Spanish press
   agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   53) Back to Top
   IMF Adopts $15 Bln Anti-crisis Support Program For Ukraine - ITAR-TASS
   Thursday July 29, 2010 04:19:35 GMT
   intervention)

   WASHINGTON, July 29 (Itar-Tass) -- The board of directors of the
   International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday adopted a new 2.5-year
   anti-crisis support program for Ukraine worth 15.15 billion U.S.
   dollars.Kiev might receive two billion U.S. dollars immediately after the
   program's adoption.The previous IMF program for Ukraine was suspended over
   the failure of Ukraine's former authorities to fulfil a number of its
   terms and conditions.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English
   -- Main government information agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   54) Back to Top
   Pakistan Daily--ISI Must Clarify its Collusion With Afghan Taliban
   Editorial: Stunning Reticence - The Frontier Post Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 12:32:39 GMT
   As the whistle-blowing Wikileaks website's revealing of a treasur e-trove
   of about 90,000 secret US military files has stirred a storm, the western
   capitals are scrambling desperately on to a firefighting mission to cope
   with the grave consequences of the disclosures, all about the US-led war
   in Afghanistan. But stunning is the reticence of the Islamabad
   establishment. The main thrust of the revealed documents is though on the
   civilian killings by the US and NATO forces in Afghanistan, assassination
   missions run by a secret US Task Force 373, and the acquisition of lethal
   weaponry and fighting prowess by Taliban. But in their bid to offload the
   bristling burden of the damning revelations from their backs, the western
   capitals are cunningly deflecting the focus on to the ISI's alleged
   collusion with Taliban that makes only an insignificant part of the
   disclosures on patently questionable grounds. The Americans have already
   done it. The others too are seemingly in the works. And yet this Islamabad
   establishment is blithely sitting pretty, li stlessly, inertly and
   unintelligently, even as their machination is unmistakably so evident.
   This is shocking and bewildering, to say the least. This establishment
   must bear one thing in mind. The western publics now stand overwhelmingly
   disillusioned of the Afghan war. And as the casualties of western troops
   are mounting in the wake of President Barack Obama's stepped-up war
   strategy, the western capitals contributing troops for fighting or
   training have begun resounding with the public screams for their return
   home. And although some western government have buckled under this
   domestic public pressure and decided to pull out, some in deep hock of
   Washington are still showing doggedly to hang on. But they will now be in
   a real dire predicament. Certainly, western human rights groups will make
   a burning issue of the Afghan civilian casualties, as indeed the German
   activists did not long ago when a German commanding officer called in an
   air raid that snuffed out Afghan civilia ns. The German claimed they were
   insurgents. Inquiries ordered after much dillydallying by the German
   defence establishment established beyond doubt the victims to be mostly
   civilians. And the saga ended in the resignation of German defence
   minister and the military chief and the court martial of the commanding
   officer. Henceforth, nonetheless, it will be much different. The rights
   groups will not be standing alone. They will have a disillusioned public
   on their side as well, no lesser to put more punch in its voice for
   withdrawal from a war that is now being increasingly viewed popularly not
   just in Europe but even in the United states as a sheer waste of both
   blood and treasure. Given this, the western nations still in the war party
   will need a whipping boy to distract their public attention away from home
   to the outside. That scapegoat is sure to be Pakistan. Make no mistake
   about it. Although the western media as yet stays focussed by and large on
   the main thrust of the disclosures, their Indian counterparts are already
   in a riotous binge of whip-lashing Pakistan. And, more or less, so are the
   CIA's assets in Afghanistan. All that may change not inconceivably. The
   corporate western media may team up, as is their wont, to bash Pakistan,
   particularly its ISI, sooner than later. Nor should the Islamabad
   establishment remain any oblivious of the perceptible reality that the
   US-led adventurism in Afghanistan has reached the endgame. Barring a
   miracle, it is a lost cause, so irretrievably has gone wrong their war in
   Afghanistan for the war party's own foibles, frailties and cowardliness.
   In similar conditions in Vietnam, they picked on Cambodia, principally,
   and Laos, secondarily, as their scapegoats for their unwinnable war and
   pulverised both the unfortunate nations with massive aerial bombardments
   for mon ths devastatingly. Possibly, Pakistan could come in for a similar
   aggressive adventurism, notwithstanding pious vows pouring in from certain
   American quarters, but obviously so expediently. Will then someone in t he
   security establishment in Islamabad go through the allegations contained
   in the revealed files against the ISI, analyse them for their health and
   motives, and brief the national media on this score? Sitting inert and
   doing nothing, this establishment must understand, will ultimately cost
   Pakistan dearly. If it has not the guts to come upfront, it can at least
   hold a selective briefing of mediapersons. Even it can leak its brief to
   the national media, as others often do. But inertia it must shed off in
   any case and make its say when these allegations are largely based on the
   takes of the Afghan spy agency, National Directorate of Security, a
   Tajik-dominated apparatus whose hatred and hostility to Pakistan has been
   inbred, compulsive and proverbial. It should not be let go with its
   vileness, uncontested, unchallenged and scot-free to the great hurt to
   this country.

   (Description of Source: Peshaw ar The Frontier Post Online in English --
   Website of a daily providing good coverage of the Northwest Frontier
   Province, Afghanistan, and narcotics issues; URL:
   http://www.thefrontierpost.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   55) Back to Top
   PRC Expert on Role of Second Artillery in Countering US Encirclement
   Dispatch from Beijing news center by reporter Liu Yueh-shan: "Leading Role
   of Second Artillery in Defending China's Maritime Rights" - Wen Wei Po
   Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 07:46:39 GMT
   The US-ROK military exercise is now putting on a show in the Sea of Japan;
   and the US secretary of state recently aimed remarks at China's South
   China Sea sovereignty. The traces of US encirclement for the geopolitical
   containment of China are visible. In the face of US containment, China has
   already made the necessary response, and a series of military exercises
   have recently unfolded in the China's off-shore waters. "Second Artillery"
   Fights in Coordination in Either Sea Area

   The well-known Chinese military expert Liu Jiangping stated when we
   interviewed him on 28 July that as regards US military strike capability,
   whether the US-ROK joint military exercise is staged in the Sea of Japan
   or the Yellow Sea, the threat to China is the same; hence, although the
   United States has moved the exercise location to the Sea of Japan, China
   is bound to react.

   Liu Jiangping holds the view that the Yellow Sea is straight at the heart
   of China, and the South China Sea is related to China's economic lifeline;
   both seas are extremely important for C hina. Hence, the PLA will have
   considerable "countermeasures," to protect national security and core
   interests from violation.

   He said that since the Yellow Sea and South China Sea are different, the
   PLA's "countermeasures" are also not the same. The Yellow Sea is linked to
   land interests, hence the countermeasures consist of all-round action by
   land, sea, and air; whereas the South China Sea is a vast sea area, so the
   navy is the main force for dealing with this. And the Second Artillery
   Corps (strategic missile units) fights in coordination in either sea area.
   He stated that according to past rules and war "skills and tricks," it
   appears that the threat of war cannot break out in both sea areas at the
   same time, and the relevant branches of the armed forces should unfold
   combat force at any time according to the timing of the threat and the
   changes in degree. The Second Artillery is the quickest in support, and
   its missile guidance data can be reloaded in a few minutes; the air force
   can fulfil its missions relatively fast from the time that orders are
   received. Call to Speed up Building of Blue-water Navy

   Liu Jiangping holds the view that facing the increasingly serious and
   overbearing external threats, the only way for the Chinese armed forces is
   to make preparations as early as possible and deploy in advance some
   combat forces in the Yellow Sea and South China Sea, and also ensure
   mutual assistance and effective strikes at any time. Apart from that,
   China also needs to selectively build a mixed combat force to deal with
   threats from a higher level. He stated that today when the globalization
   process is continually accelerating, and China's overseas interests are
   becoming more extensive by the day, the "brown-water navy" is now far from
   capable of meeting national interest needs, and we should speed up the
   building of a blue-water navy.

   (Description of Source: Hong Kong Wen Wei Po Online in Chinese -- Website
   of PRC-owned daily newspaper with a very small circulation; ranked low in
   "credibility" in Hong Kong opinion surveys due to strong pro-Beijing bias;
   has good access to PRC sources; URL:
   http://www.wenweipo.com)Attachments:wwp0729.pdf

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   56) Back to Top
   Indian, Israeli Agencies Leaked Reports To Defame Country
   Report by Abdul Shakur Abi Hassan: "Secret Reports -- Israeli, Indian
   Agencies Played Significant Role" - Nawa-e Waqt
   Thursday July 29, 2010 09:11:09 GMT
   in leaking the secret report, which was published in the US and British
   dailies. The sources disclosed to the Nawa-e-Waqt

   that the purpose behind leaking these reports was to defame Pakistan
   throughout the world and declare it a terrorist state.

   The sources add that the Mumbai attack was also a drama staged by RAW
   (Research and Analysis Wing, an Indian intelligence agency) and Mosad, the
   Israeli intelligence agency, to target Pakistan. India is taking advantage
   of that attack even, now. The Mumbai attack was planned in Israel, and the
   Israeli civilians were made to stay at such places where they could be
   attacked. Making the Israeli civilians a scapegoat, support could be
   earned throughout the world, the Pakistani defense and intelligence
   agencies could be defamed and economic sanctions could be imposed on
   Pakistan.

   According to the sources, the purpose behind the reports of secret
   contacts between the Pakistan Army and the Taliban is also the same. India
   has had to face utter failure in spite of dozens o f diplomatic missions
   in Afghanistan, and it could not fulfill its plan vis-a-vis Balochistan.
   The Indian intelligence agency in collaboration with Mosad, prepared plan,
   meant to expose Pakistani links with the Taliban to defame Pakistan.

   (Description of Source: Rawalpindi Nawa-e Waqt in Urdu -- Privately owned,
   widely read, conservative Islamic daily, with circulation around 125,000.
   Harshly critical of the US and India.)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   57) Back to Top
   Commentary Says India Protesting 'Too Much' Against China-Pakistan Nuclear
   Deal
   Commentary by PR Chari: Is India Protesting too Much About the Sino-Pak
   Nuke Deal? - Daily News and Analysis Online
   &lt; br&gt;
   Thursday July 29, 2010 11:26:34 GMT
   Disconcertingly, the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) did not discuss China's
   controversial plan to build two new atomic power stations in Pakistan in
   its annual five-day meeting held in New Zealand. Apparently, the matter
   did come up but was not placed on the formal agenda.Earlier, Beijing was
   requested several times to clarify its position on this plan, but had not
   bothered to reply. A statement issued after the NSG meeting tamely "took
   note of briefings on developments concerning non-NSG states. It agreed on
   the value of ongoing consultation and transparency". Such was the extreme
   circumspection shown by the NSG for China's sensitivities.The NSG came
   into existence in 1974 in response to India's diversion of nuclear imports
   for its peaceful nuclear explosion. It has transformed itself into a
   watch-dog organisation that coordinates international ex port controls
   over transfers of civilian nuclear material, equipment and technology to
   non-nuclear weapon states to prevent their use for manufacturing nuclear
   weapons.All such transfers can only be affected under international
   safeguards and inspection arrangements. By definition the NSG's guidelines
   only apply to non-nuclear weapon states that are members of the
   Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), although they can be extended to states
   outside the NPT, provided they place their entire nuclear program under
   international safeguards and inspections.India and Pakistan are not
   members of the NSG and both possess nuclear weapons. But India succeeded
   in entering the Indo-US nuclear deal in 2008 after it secured a waiver
   from the NSG Guidelines following intense US pressure on its members.
   India accepted several constraints on its nuclear program in return for
   this concession.Like agreeing to separate its military and civil nuclear
   programs and accept international safeguards on its entire civilian
   program. Thereafter, India has entered into nuclear trade deals with a
   number of NSG members.In truth, the Bush administration undertook these
   extraordinary actions favouring India for several political and economic
   reasons, but largely to establish India as a strategic counterweight to
   China.China is aware of these larger strategic implications of the Indo-US
   nuclear deal.Its role was highly dubious when India's case came up before
   the NSG. It assured India and the US that it would not obstruct the
   passage of the Indo-US nuclear deal. But, it instigated several NSG
   countries to oppose the deal, while asserting that it had the right to
   offer a similar deal to Pakistan.Ultimately, a demarche by India and
   American pressure succeeded in persuading China to moderate its
   opposition, but it is clear now that China was biding its time for
   evolving its own reaction to the Indo-US nuclear deal.The China-Pakistan
   nuclear deal clearly violates the NSG's rules and regul ations in the
   absence of a special dispensation. China's argument is that its supply of
   nuclear reactors to Pakistan does not require any NSG approval, since this
   deal is a continuation of its earlier agreement to supply two nuclear
   reactors to Pakistan, which is disingenuous.The US has expressed deep
   concern considering the appalling nuclear proliferation history of
   Pakistan. China's nuclear proliferation history is the same considering
   its linkages to North Korea, Pakistan, Myanmar, Iran and Syria -- the
   notorious aberrant nations in the international system. At the moment
   China has yet to decide which way to jump -- heed the international
   sentiment or defy the same to progress its 'lip-and-teeth' relationship
   with Pakistan.Unsurprisingly, Pakistan's official spokesman has claimed
   that Pakistan's nuclear program "is purely for peaceful objectives".
   Apparently, India has sought to influence the NSG members from behind the
   scenes.But its official non-officials have gone berserk claiming that the
   Sino-Pak nuclear deal, by making Pakistan an exceptional to the NSG
   guidelines, will lead to a collapse of the NSG. Apropo s, India had also
   been made an exception to the NSG Guidelines.Arguing that this is
   justifiable because India's proliferation record is shining, but
   Pakistan's record is besmirched ignores the unfortunate fact that the NSG
   itself was created after India's diversion of civilian nuclear imports for
   its "peaceful nuclear explosion".And the US had ignored Pakistan's steady
   march to nuclear capability in the eighties when its cooperation was
   needed to torment the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. Even now, the US speaks
   softly because it requires Pakistan to enable the withdrawal of US troops
   from Afghanistan by 2011. And, China has huge deposits in US Federal
   reserves.The length of the Chinese purse has, indeed, become the beginning
   of all wisdom. Or, to put it in the Mumbai dialect, "Agar khisey main
   paise hota, to sabhi Ram Ram bolta".Realpolitik spells discretion and
   avoidance of firm positions. Having benefited from US realpolitik, India
   is protesting too much with its ineffectual diplomatic manoeuvres.

   (Description of Source: Mumbai Daily News and Analysis (DNA) online in
   English -- Indias first "all-color page" English-language daily, owned by
   the Diligent Media Corporation, a joint venture between industry majors --
   the Dainik Bhaskar (Indias number one Hindi daily) Group and Zee Group.
   Launched on 30 July 2005, DNA started with a subscribed circulation of
   300,000. The daily targets a young readership; URL: www.dnaindia.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   58) Back to Top
   NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 117 (July 29, 2010) -- NEWS IN BRIEF (3 of 6)
   Yonhap headline: "NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 117 (July 29, 2010)" - Yonhap
   Thursday July 29, 2010 05:40:33 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   59) Back to Top
   NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 117 (July 29, 2010) -- TOPIC OF THE WEEK (2 of
   6)
   Yonhap headline: "NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 117 (July 29, 2010)" - Yonhap
   Thursday Ju ly 29, 2010 05:30:25 GMT
   SEOUL (Yonhap) -- South and North Korea staged a tough diplomatic duel
   last week over the sinking in March of a South Korean warship at the
   regional security forum held in Hanoi, but the annual conference only
   expressed "concerns" over the sinking of the warship Ch'o'nan (Cheonan)
   without naming North Korea as the culprit.In the Asean Regional Forum
   (ARF) held in the Vietnamese capital, South Korea demanded North Korea
   acknowledge its responsibility for the incident and apologize, but North
   Korea said it has nothing to do with the warship and claimed that South
   Korea, instead, should apologize.This year's ARF session came just weeks
   after the U.N. Security Council condemned the Ch'o'nan (Cheonan) attack
   that left 46 sailors dead near the Yellow Sea border on March 26. The U.N.
   Council's presidential statement, however, did not directly link it to
   North Korea.The forum brought together the for eign ministers from 26
   countries plus the European Union under the aegis of the 10-member
   Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).In a statement, the top
   diplomats who attended the ARF meeting expressed "deep concerns" on July
   24 over the incident, but did not pinpoint North Korea as the perpetrator
   behind the sinking.The position taken by this year's ARF is almost the
   same as that taken by the U.N. Security Council on July 9. "The ministers
   expressed deep concerns over the sinking of the Republic of Korea's naval
   ship, the Ch'o'nan (Cheonan), resulted from the attack on 26 March 2010,"
   said the statement issued by the ARF chairman.South Korea voiced
   satisfaction with the ARF statement. "The ARF chairman's statement duly
   reflects this year's meeting and contains a message censuring North
   Korea's provocation and attack, and discouraging armed provocations to
   protect peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula," South Korean Foreign
   Ministe r Yu Myung-hwan (Yu Myo'ng-hwan) said.The ARF statement was issued
   a day after the annual forum ended its session on July 23, underlining
   difficulties in reconciling the two nations' wide differences on the
   matter.The U.N. statement did not name North Korea as the culprit, only
   condemning the "attack" that led to the ship sinking. North Korea has
   denied any role in the sinking and has accused South Korea of fabricating
   the investigation results.In the ARF statement, the ministers stressed the
   importance of maintaining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and
   in the region, and called on all concerned parties to resolve all disputes
   by peaceful means.The ministers also "reaffirmed their support for the
   complete and verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and
   encouraged the parties to return to the six-party talks in due course,"
   and underscored the importance of relevant U.N. resolutions, according to
   the statement.North Korean diplomat s attending the security forum
   reiterated calls for an end to the sanctions imposed on North Korea and
   the signing of a peace treaty as conditions to returning to the six-party
   talks, which have been stalled since early last year.U.S. Secretary of
   State Hillary Clinton did not meet with North Korean Foreign Minister Pak
   Ui-chun in Hanoi, but she met with Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi to
   discuss North Korea and other issues.China, North Korea's major ally and a
   veto-wielding council member, is the host of the six-party talks,
   involving the two Koreas, the U.S., China, Japan and Russia, which have
   been deadlocked over U.N. sanctions imposed after Pyongyang's nuclear and
   missile tests early last year.Yang demanded on July 23 that all parties
   concerned turn the page on the Ch'o'nan (Cheonan) incident for an early
   revival of the six-party tal ks.Clinton said in Seoul on July 21 the time
   is not ripe for the resumption of the talks. A new round "is not something
   we're l ooking at yet," Clinton said, noting that North Korea has shown no
   commitment to halt provocative actions or forswear nuclear weapons. "To
   date, we have seen nothing."Ahead of the ARF statement, South Korea
   pressed North Korea on July 23 to apologize for torpedoing its warships,
   but North Korea refused to comply, as the rival states tussled over how to
   reflect their views in the chairman's statement.South Korean Foreign
   Minister Yu, speaking at the forum, pressed North Korea to "clearly and
   truthfully acknowledge its provocation on the Ch'o'nan (Cheonan) and
   apologize for it."Along with the sinking of the 1,200-ton South Korean
   warship, North Korea's nuclear programs were high on the agenda of the
   forum. Yu accused North Korea of continuing its nuclear development in
   defiance of the international community.Pak Ui-chun, the North Korean
   foreign minister, rejected the South Korean demand for an apology, arguing
   that it has not been determined yet who i s responsible for the sinking of
   the Ch'o'nan (Cheonan)."The Ch'o'nan (Cheonan) case is still not resolved
   and a fair and objective probe must take place," Pak was quoted by South
   Korean officials as saying. "We've asked to send our inspection team, but
   South Korea and Washington have refused."Pak reiterated the North Korean
   position that the country would only return to the six-party nuclear
   disarmament table when sanctions imposed on it are lifted, they said.On
   July 23, a North Korean diplomat warned there would be "physical response"
   to the planned joint naval exercises between South Korea and the United
   States, and said it will not apologize for the sinking."There will be a
   physical response against the steps imposed by the United States
   militarily," said Ri Tong-il, spokesman for the North Korean delegation
   for the ARF. "The exercises are another expression of hostile policy
   against the DPRK (North Korea)."South Korea an d the United States began
   high-powered four-day drills on July 25 in the East Sea as a resolute
   signal to the North that its provocations will not be tolerated. Officials
   of the two allies said the maneuver was a defensive one meant to deter the
   communist regime.Ri responded by saying any military drills involving a
   warship like the USS George Washington, the nuclear-powered U.S. aircraft
   carrier, cannot be considered defensive."There are many sophisticated
   weapon equipments," Ri said. "(The drills are) against the sovereignty of
   the DPRK and security of the DPRK. It's a great threat to the Korean
   Peninsula and also to the region of Asia as a whole."Ri again accused
   Seoul of fabricating the probe results with "political and military
   motives" and conspiring with the United States. The North could never
   accept the South's attempts to "dump responsibility" on Pyongyang, he
   said.Meanwhile, North Korea's foreign minister has complained that high
   tensions caused by what he called "provocative actions" taken by South
   Korea and the U.S. in connection with the sinking of a South Korean
   warship are hurting the North's economy, South Korean officials said on
   July 24.Minister Pak Ui-chun strenuously complained the March 26 sinking
   has driven the peninsula "to the brink of war," they said."Our great
   leader Kim Jong Il (Kim Cho'ng-il) has prepared monumental policies on
   international investment, expansion of tourism and growing economic
   development," Pak told the forum, according to them."More than ever, we
   need stability. But the South Korean military brought up the Ch'o'nan
   (Cheonan) incident, which only offered one-sided results and raised doubt
   even within South Korea, and is making life difficult for us."Pak boasted
   that his country made "miraculous achievements" in its steel and machinery
   industries last year and is looking to develop its light industry and
   agricu lture, according to the South Korean officials.(Description of
   Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news agency of the ROK;
   URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   60) Back to Top
   US Must Assess Policy of Distrusting Pakistan, Focus To Stabilize
   Afghanistan
   Article by Asif Haroon Raja: Time for America To Introspect - Pakistan
   Observer Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 11:20:21 GMT
   Gen Petraeus has taken over same lot of demoralized coalition troops with
   little heart left to fight purposeless war. US military and NATO have
   never remained in sync; mi sunderstanding among them is likely to increase
   in coming months. Synchronized coordination among six intelligence
   agencies is lacking. Afghan Army and paramilitary forces are another
   headache needing emergent refurbishment. Introduction of Blackwater in
   security and military affairs has its own set of ramifications. He plays
   with the same battle plan conceived by his predecessor Gen McChrystal and
   approved by him. He is bounded by Af-Pak plan to draw a wedge between
   Taliban and Al-Qaeda, divide Taliban and defeat the hardliners. He too is
   keen for operation in NW for he feels that move into Kandahar with a heavy
   force would expose his southern flank and rear to militants in NW.

   The Soviets had withdrawn from Afghanistan exactly one year after
   Gorbochov announced his intentions on 09 February 1988. None had believed
   that Soviets would ever withdraw since the big bear had no history of
   retracing its steps. Taliban rightly feel that they have in principle
   achieved the s econd miracle within a span of three decades. The day
   Americans pull out, it will be like the history of rise of Islam under
   Holy Prophet (pbuh) in 6th century getting re-enacted when the two super
   powers of the time, the Persians (Sassanian Empire) and the Byzantine
   Empire under Romans, having fought with each other for a longtime finally
   got defeated at the hands of ill-equipped Muslim Arabs on horsebacks.

   Notwithstanding that Taliban have an influence over more than 70% of
   territory in Afghanistan, yet they are far from taking over reigns of
   country. Until and unless they capture Kabul and dismantle US bases in
   Baghram and Kandahar, which are the main power centres of coalition forces
   and Karzai regime, victory will remain illusive. Kabul's fall is
   obligatory to achieve total victory. Kabul can capitulate if focus of
   terror attacks is shifted to the capital city, northern route towards
   Salang Pass is blocked, supplies coming from Pakistan are disrupted, and
   like IE Ds and suicide attacks which have taken maximum toll of ISAF
   ground troops, means to combat aerial power acquired. Russia would be too
   willing to provide latest version of SAMs as a quid pro quo to stingers
   provided to Mujahideen by Americans in 1987-88, which accelerated the rot
   of Soviet forces.There is growing skepticism among policy makers in USA.
   The critics say that US military and civil officials associated with
   Afghanistan lack clarity, vision and have no set goals and their
   benchmarks are based on vague assumptions making achievement of goals that
   much unattainable. Shadow boxing for authority is continuing between
   Pentagon under Robert Gates cum CIA and State Department under Hillary
   Clinton cum White House. For Obama, next one year period is crucial to
   achieve some measure of stability in Afghanistan since it will have a
   direct bearing on the outcome of elections in USA in 2011-12.

   It is time for USA to introspect and to perform postmortem as to why today
   t he US finds itself in such a sorry state. Washington should make a
   candid assessment as to what the US gained in blindly trusting India and
   Israel and what it lost in distrusting Pakistan. Isn't it ironic that
   after punishing Pakistan for nine years on fabricated charges, the US has
   now begun to realize that stability of Pakistan is critical to stability
   of Afghanistan, South-Central Asia and for US national security? Who will
   account for immeasurable human and economic losses suffered by Pakistan?
   Had the US played a fair game with Pakistan and co-opted the Army and ISI
   in its war plans, it could have emerged as a victor. At this critical
   stage, the US needs a General like Gen Patton or Gen McArthu r to steady
   the ship and snatch the victory from the jaws of sure defeat. Like
   McChrystal, Petraeus too is a spent cartridge with nothing to gloat about.
   He is no match to one-eyed Mullah Omar who has proved his mettle and has
   all the qualities of a great leader. Petraeus will sw im with the tide but
   doesn't have the aura and drive to lift the sagging morale of 46-nation
   troops he commands, galvanize them into a well-knit team and kindle in
   them requisite warrior spirit to push back the surging tide and turn it in
   favorable direction. I may hazard to add that best of military plans fail
   under an indecisive and weak leader while an average plan succeeds under a
   dynamic leader.

   Therefore rather than wasting time in hatching conspiracies against
   Pakistan, focus should be on selecting the right man and giving him full
   liberty of action to run the show. He should dispassionately take stock of
   the obtaining situation, resources available, go about refurbishing grey
   areas, revise battle plans in accordance with ground realities and see if
   pitched battles are desirable. Any military leader with little grey matter
   would conclude that it is pointless to reinforce failure and would advise
   that from henceforth all efforts should be made towards salvaging the
   precarious situation through dialogue only and not through a mix of
   dialogue and use of force since it would prove counter productive.

   The intellectually bankrupt think tanks in USA instead of publishing
   anti-Pakistan articles scripted by Indian writers in US newspapers and
   magazines should critically examine as to why the US failed to usher in
   democracy, political stability and economic prosperity in war-torn
   Afghanistan? They should seek answers as to why USA could not win over the
   Afghans or train ANA and police despite spending trillions of dollars? An
   answer should be found as to why colossal amount was wasted on futile
   chase of Osama and other high profile militant leaders without any
   success? They should search their hearts and come out with honest opinion
   whether efforts wasted on dividing and killing Taliban will prove
   productive and whether it will be desirable to waste time and resources on
   propping up dead horse of ANA.

   The US strategists must n ow ponder over the coming withdrawal phase of
   coalition troops, starting in July 2011, whether it will be a clean break
   under a Geneva like accord or it will be a running battle, or total
   airlift of manpower leaving behind all the heavy baggage, tanks, guns,
   mines, explosives and ordnance. They must contemplate upon northern outlet
   through Central Asia and southern outlet through Pakistan as to what steps
   are required to make them safe for supplies as well as rearward road
   moves. The civil leaders like James Jones, Holbrooke, Eikenberry and
   others in the meanwhile should also do their homework and stick to their
   domain rather than poking their noses in military affairs and trying to
   become military strategists. As a matter of fact it was because of
   hardnosed Holbrooke's aggressive attitude which gave rise to
   civil-military tensions. He was behind making Af-Pak policy, which was
   devised to balkanize Pakistan on Yugoslavian model. He tried to assert his
   authority in Pakistan b ut his inflated ego was deflated by Lt Gen Shuja
   Pasha in April 2009 and ever since he has put on the guise of affability.
   However, beneath the mask of friendliness, he remains firm in his set
   goals.

   Michael Hughes has once again refreshed balkanization theme through his
   recent article appearing in Huffington Post, which is another reminder
   that hawks within Obama Administration pumped by Israeli and Indian
   lobbies have not given up their nefarious designs against Pakistan.
   Hillary has reiterated that Osama is in Pakistan and that any terror
   attack on USA with connection to Pakistan will have devastating impact on
   Pak-US relationship. It is rather late in the day to indulge in such
   tomfoolery. America should concentrate on stabilizing Afghanistan.

   The writer is a defence analyst and writes for national, internation al
   newspapers/websites.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad Pakistan Observer Online in English --
   Website of the pro-military daily with reade rship of 5,000. Anti-India,
   supportive of Saudi policies, strong supporter of Pakistan's nuclear and
   missile program. Chief Editor Zahid Malik is the author of books on
   nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan; URL: http://www.pakobserver.net)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   61) Back to Top
   NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 117 (July 29) -- FOREIGN TIPS (5 of 6)
   Yonhap headline: "NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 117 (July 29)" - Yonhap
   Thursday July 29, 2010 05:50:44 GMT
   SHENYANG, China, (Yonhap) -- China has acquired the rights to use another
   one of North Korea's northeastern ports, signaling deepening e conomic
   ties between the ideological allies, a Chinese official said on July
   22.China has used the North Korean port of Rajin in North Hamgyong
   Province for commercial trade since 2008. An official at the Tumen city in
   northeast China said that a Chinese state company has now also obtained
   the rights to use the port of Chongjin, about 70 kilometers south of
   Rajin.South Korea's Unification Ministry, which handles North Korea
   affairs, said it could not immediately confirm the comments by the Chinese
   official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.Since North Korean leader
   Kim Jong Il (Kim Cho'ng-il)'s visit to Beijing earlier this year, the two
   countries have been strengthening their economic cooperation. China is the
   foremost ally of the cash-strapped North, which is under deepening
   sanctions for its nuclear testing.The Chinese official also said in an
   interview with Yonhap News Agency that North Korea and China have also
   agreed to allow Chinese companies to use North Korea's r ailways from
   Tumen to Chonjin.The series of agreements would "facilitate trade from
   Tumen," the official said, adding the Chinese company that struck the deal
   to use the port of Chongjin will use it to carry out shipping agreements
   with three Chinese companies.------------------------ China Allowed to Use
   Another N. Korean Port: Official SHENYANG, China, July 22 (Yonhap) --
   China has acquired the rights to use another one of North Korea's
   northeastern ports, signaling deepening economic ties between the
   ideological allies, a Chinese official said Thursday.China has used the
   North Korean port of Rajin in North Hamgyong Province for commercial trade
   since 2008. An official at the Tumen city government in northeast China
   said that a Chinese state company has now also obtained the rights to use
   the port of Chongjin, about 70 kilometers south of Rajin.South Korea's
   Unification Ministry, which handles North Korea affairs, said it could not
   immediately confirm the comment s by the Chinese official, who spoke on
   condition of anonymity.Since North Korean leader Kim Jong Il (Kim
   Cho'ng-il)'s visit to Beijing earlier this year, the two countries have
   been strengthening their economic cooperation. China is the foremost ally
   of the cash-strapped North, which is under deepening sanctions for its
   nuclear testing.The Chinese official also said in an interview with Yonhap
   News Agency that North Korea and China have also agreed to allow Chinese
   companies to use North Korea's railways from Tumen to Chonjin.The series
   of agreements would "facilitate trade from Tumen," the official said,
   adding the Chinese company that struck the deal to use the port of
   Chongjin will use it to carry out shipping agreements with three Chinese
   companies.------------------------ Hong Kong to Continue Implementing U.N.
   Sanctions on N. Korea HONG KONG (Yonhap) -- The government of Hong Kong
   affirmed its commitment on July 23 to continue implementing punitive U.N.
   sanc tions imposed on North Korea to end its nuclear ambitions."Hong Kong
   will continue to exercise vigilance in enforcing our regulation to
   effectively implement the United Nations Security Coucil sanctions against
   DPRK (North Korea)," Josephine Lo, an official at the Commerce and
   Economic Development Bureau of the Hong Kong government, told Yonhap News,
   using the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of
   Korea."Our law enforcement agencies will take appropriate actions on those
   found in violation of the laws," she said.The comment was made after U.S.
   Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's announcement on July 28 that the U.S.
   will hit North Korea with a new set of sanctions to punish it for its
   sinking of a South Korean warship and prevent it from further
   provocations.Those sanctions will "strengthen our enforcement of U.N.
   Security Council resolutions 1718 and 1874" adopted after North Korea's
   first and second nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009, Clinton said at a joint
   press conference in Seoul after a meeting with South Korea's foreign and
   defense ministers.Hong Kong legislated what is called the U.N. Sanctions
   Regulation in June 2007 to implement the U.N. Security Council Resolution
   1718, according to Lo.In January, Hong Kong amended the regulation to
   implement the new and expanded sanctions against North Korea under the
   Security Council Resolution 1874, she said.A source in Hong Kong said
   earlier on July 23 that the U.S. has identified about 200 bank accounts
   with links to North Korea, and that the country is expected to freeze some
   100 of those suspected of being used for weapons exports and other illicit
   purposes banned under U.N. resolutions.The U.S. State Department said the
   U.S. will carry out new sanctions within two weeks to cut off money from
   illicit trafficking of weapons of mass destruction and counterfeit
   currency or luxury goods flowing into the North Korean leadership.North
   Korea has bristl ed at the announcement of new sanctions and Seoul's plan
   to conduct large-scale joint naval exercises with the U.S., claiming the
   moves pose grave threats to regional peace.------------------------ U.S.
   Closely Watching Front Companies for N. Korea to Evade Sanctions
   WASHINGTON (Yonhap) -- The United States said on July 26 it is closely
   looking at front companies North Korea has been using to evade
   international sanctions imposed after its nuclear and missile tests early
   last year."This is something that we watch carefully," State Department
   spokesman Philip Crowley said while responding to the report that
   Washington has found more than 100 North Korean accounts in foreign banks
   involved in illicit activities. "We're looking to identify front companies
   which help North Korea evade existing sanctions."U.S. Secretary of State
   Hillary Clinton said last week that Washington will blacklist more North
   Korean entities and individuals to cut off money flowing to its leaders
   through the trafficking of weapons of mass destruction and counterfeit and
   luxury goods in violation of U.N. resolutions."As the secretary announced
   last week, we're going to take additional steps," Crowley said. "We'll
   have more to say about that in the next couple of weeks."Crowley did not
   comment on reports that Pyongyang might conduct a third nuclear test,
   following underground detonations in 2006 and 2009."I can't really answer
   that question without getting into intelligence matters," the spokesman
   said. "But as we've made clear, the military exercises that are under way
   are defensive in nature. And what we would like to see from North Korea
   are fewer provocative words and more constructive
   actions."------------------------ Obama Urged to Engage in Direct,
   High-level Dialogue with N. Korea WASHINGTON (Yonhap) -- A senior U.S.
   senator on July 27 called on the Obama administration to engage in direct
   high-level dialogue with North Korea to break the impasse on nuclear talks
   and ease heightening tensions after the North's sinking of a South Korean
   warship.Speaking to a forum in Washington to mark the anniversary of the
   armistice signed at the end of the 1950-53 Korean War, Senator John Kerry
   (D-MA), called for "engaging in direct, candid, high-level dialogue" with
   North Korea with the goal being "to test whether North Korea is prepared
   to take concrete steps to return to the path of denuclearization and
   peace."Kerry, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, also
   demanded that the Obama administration "remain equally ready to pursue a
   peaceful, negotiated solution to the underlying security challenges that
   have kept the Korean Peninsula locked in a Cold War for far too long, even
   as we are fu lly prepared to deter and defend against any North Korean
   aggression, a fact underscored by upcoming joint military exercises and
   the delay of the planned transfer of wartime operational control to South
   Korea."BOTh Seoul and Washington have called on Pyongyang to forswear
   further provocations and demonstrate its denuclearization pledge before
   returning to the six-party talks, which the North has boycotted since
   early last year, when the U.N. Security Council imposed sanctions for
   Pyongyang's nuclear and missile tests.U.S. Secretary of State Hillary
   Clinton said last week that a new round of the nuclear talks "is not
   something we're looking at yet," citing no commitment by the North to halt
   provocative actions or forswear nuclear weapons.Chinese Foreign Minister
   Yang Jiechi demanded on July 23 that all parties concerned "turn the page"
   on the Ch'o'nan (Cheonan) incident toward an early revival of the
   six-party talks.North Korea insists on the removal of sanctions and the
   signing of a peace treaty to replace the armistice as conditions to
   returning to the six-party talks, involving the two Koreas, the U.S.,
   China, Japan and Russia.A sustained diplomatic engagement still "remains
   the best way to convince North Korea to change its dangerous and
   destabilizing pattern of behavior," Kerry said. "Strategic patience, the
   popular shorthand for the administration's North Korea policy, must not be
   allowed to turn into strategic indifference.""We must help illuminate the
   path to peace -- making clear the ways in which South Korea, the United
   States, and other members of the six-party talks stand ready to address
   the North's legitimate security concerns and assist in its economic
   revival provided that its ceases its hostile actions, take credible,
   verifiable steps to abandon once and for all its pursuit of nuclear
   weapons, and resume a good faith dialogue to address the many issues left
   unresolved when the Korean War ground to a halt 57 years ago," the senator
   said.------------------------ U.S. Officials to Focus on 'Framework' of
   N.K. Sanctions in Seoul Next Week SE OUL (Yonhap) -- U.S. officials are
   expected to focus on the "framework" of additional sanctions on North
   Korea when they come to Seoul next week, a diplomatic source here said on
   July 27.Robert Einhorn, the State Department's special advisor for
   nonproliferation and arms control, is expected to arrive in Seoul with a
   delegation that includes officials from the defense and treasury
   departments and the National Security Council. The visit is part of the
   delegation's anticipated travel through Japan, Malaysia and Singapore as
   Washington seeks their cooperation in tightening the financial noose
   around North Korea.The U.S. officials will meet their South Korean
   counterparts at the foreign and the finance ministries, according to
   sources here. It wasn't determined whether they will also hold talks with
   Seoul's financial regulators."The (U.S.) officials will talk about how to
   add and execute new sanctions," the diplomatic source said. "Their
   discussions wil l be mostly about forms and means of sanctions, rather
   than about sharing any new intelligence on North Korea."U.S. Secretary of
   State Hillary Clinton announced in Seoul last week that Washington will
   impose new sanctions on Pyongyang's leaders as punishment for the sinking
   of the South Korean warship Ch'o'nan (Cheonan) in March. The U.S. has
   reportedly identified some 200 bank accounts linked to North Korea and was
   expected to freeze about half of them suspected of being used in weapons
   exports.Seoul and its allies blame the North for the torpedo attack on the
   warship Ch'o'nan (Cheonan) that killed 46 sailors. North Korea denies any
   role in the sinking.In Washington, a diplomatic source told reporters that
   the new sanctions would be carried out in three phases, starting with a
   new list of North Korean companies or individuals subject to sanctions to
   ultimately have financial institutions in third countries halt dealings
   with them.The U.S. will sever ties with instituti ons that do not
   cooperate, the source said.In 2005, the U.S. designated Macau-based Banco
   Delta Asia as being linked to the North's illicit financial activities.
   The move effectively froze some US$25 million in North Korean accounts at
   the bank and ostracized the bank in the international financial
   community.Last summer, the U.S. froze assets of North Korean companies for
   their suspected involvement in Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programs
   and banned U.S. firms and individuals from doing business with
   them.(Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
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   62) Back to Top
   DPRK KPA Vice Marshal Kim Yong Chun's 'Report' on War Victory Anniversary
   Text of "report" by Kim Yong Chun [Kim Yo'ng-ch'un], vice chairman of the
   DPRK National Defense Commission, minister of People's Armed Forces, and
   vice marshal of the Korean People's Army, at a central report meeting to
   mark the 57th anniversary of the victory of the great Fatherland
   Liberation War, held on 26 July at the Pyongyang Stadium -- recorded -
   Korean Central Broadcasting Station
   Thursday July 29, 2010 05:30:25 GMT
   Today, we are celebrating the 57th anniversary of the victory in the great
   Fatherland Liberation War in an exciting environment where all the
   officers and men of the people's army and people are achieving dazzling
   changes on all fronts of the construction of a powerful state with a
   do-or-die resolve to firmly smash, with the ever-victorious military-first
   might, the maneuvers of th e US imperialists and the South Korean puppet
   clique (todang) for provoking a new war.

   The 27th day of July, Chuch'e 42 (1953), when our army and people defeated
   the US imperialists in the arduous three-year Fatherland Liberation War
   under the wise leadership of the great leader (suryo'ng) Comrade Kim Il
   Sung (Kim Il-so'ng), is the day of second national liberation that
   defended the independence of the fatherland and the sovereignty of the
   nation from the aggression of the imperialist allied forces and the day of
   a great war victory that shattered the myth of the powerfulness of the US
   imperialists, who had been boasting of being the strongest in the world,
   and brought the beginning of the US imperialists' entry into a road of
   decline. (applause)

   On the occasion of greeting the meaningful anniversary of war victory, in
   accordance with the authorization of the great leader (ryo'ngdoja) Comrade
   Kim Jong Il (Kim Cho'ng-il), general secretary of the Workers Party o f
   Korea (WPK), chairman of the DPRK National Defense Commission (NDC), and
   supreme commander of the Korean People's Army (KPA), I warmly
   congratulate, in the name of the WPK Central Committee (CC), the WPK
   Central Military Commission (CMC), and the DPRK NDC, the anti-Japanese
   revolutionary fighters, war veterans, and wartime persons of merit who
   performed immortal feats in the Fatherland Liberation War to defend the
   independence of the fatherland and the gains of the revolution. (applause)

   I also extend warm congratulations to the officers and men of the KPA and
   the DPRK Interior Forces, who are firmly grasping the gun of the
   revolution and impregnably defending our socialist fatherland, and to all
   the people who are performing proud feats in the construction of a
   powerful state. (applause)

   In addition, I express lofty respect to the heroic fighters of the
   people's army and patriotic martyrs who fought brilliantly and bravely in
   the Fatherland Liberation War by dedicating their valuable lives.
   (applause)

   At this moment of celebrating the 57th anniversary of the victory in the
   Fatherland Liberation War, our army and people are fervently looking back
   on the immortal achievements of the great leader (suryo'ng) Comrade Kim Il
   Sung, who led the great anti-US war to victory with the chuch'e-based
   military idea and art of war, outstanding resourcefulness, and tested art
   of command, and they are brimming with a blazing resolve to carry on the
   feat and tradition of winning the war victory in the 1950s of the previous
   century and achieve ultimate victory in the anti-US confrontational war
   under the respected and beloved Comrade Kim Jong Il's military-first
   revolutionary leadership. (applause)

   The Korean war was a war of aggression, which the United States prepared
   for craftily for a long time and instigated in a smear manner in order to
   pave a road of aggression against Asia and realize its ambition for world
   supremacy.

   The US imperialists -- which emerged as the head boss of imperialism after
   World War II, set forth world supremacy as a general goal of their
   external strategy, and designated the geopolitically important Korean
   peninsula as the first target -- drove the South Korean puppet army to
   ceaselessly perpetrate armed provocation maneuvers in the whole area of
   the 38th parallel line under an ambition to turn the whole of Korea into
   the bastards' complete colony and a bridgehead for continental invasion.

   The US imperialists, which had been running amok in military provocations
   and real war exercises according to a plan for Korean war, suddenly lit
   fire to the fuse of a war of aggression against our Repub lic at dawn on
   25 June 1950.

   On that very day of provoking the war in accordance to a scenario worked
   out in advance, the US imperialists unlawfully convened the United Nations
   Security Council (UNSC) and shifted the blame for the outbreak of war to
   us, and by permitti ng armed intervention of the United States and its
   following forces against Korea and forcibly passing series of resolutions
   on organizing the UN forces led by the US military, they starkly disclosed
   their brigandish nature as an aggressor and war fanatic.

   The maneuver of the United States, which covered up its identity as a
   warmonger and disgraced the UN arena by trampling on the UN Charter and
   illegally using the name of the UN, is a brigandish act that has no legal
   validity of any kind and a grave crime against international law that
   cannot be justified with anything.

   Our people's Fatherland Liberation War enforced by the US imperialists was
   a war of justice for national liberation aimed at defending the
   independence of the fatherland and the sovereignty of the nation, a stern
   class struggle against the enemies of people, and at the same time, it was
   a fierce anti-imperialist, anti-US struggle aimed at opposing the
   aggression of imperialist allied forces, in cluding the US imperialists,
   and defending the security of mankind and world peace.

   The US imperialists mobilized more than two-million-strong troops for the
   Korean war, including one third of their country's army and one fifth of
   their air force, the majority of their Pacific Fleet, and the armies of
   their 15 satellite countries, as well as the South Korean puppet army and
   the Japanese militarists and a tremendous amount of the latest combat
   equipments, and they employed the most savage methods and means of war
   unprecedented in the world history of war.

   The US imperialist aggressors indiscriminately destroyed and burned
   everything in our country and committed atrocities of inhuman slaughter
   everywhere by even using internationally banned germ weapons and chemical
   weapons.

   The US imperialist aggressors, however, could by no means force the
   surrender of the revolutionary army and people led by the great leader,
   and our people's army and people rose up lik e mountains to vigorously
   launch into a sacred war of justice and achieved a historic victory by
   dealing a severe military, political, and moral defeat to the aggressors.
   (applause)

   The victory in the Fatherland Liberation War was a miracle in the history
   of modern war achieved by the chuch'e-based military idea and art of war,
   matchless courage, and outstanding commanding art of the great leader
   Comrade Kim Il Sung, a gifted military strategist, an ever-victorious
   brilliant commander of iron will, and a legendary hero. (applause)

   The great Comrade Kim Il Sung -- who frustrated the enemies' invasion in
   the early days of the Fatherland Liberation War and had the aggressors
   ruthlessly annihilated and mopped up with an immediate counter-attack --
   presented a militant slogan called "Everything for war victory!" and
   reformed all work of the country into a wartime system, and vigorously
   organized and mobilized the entire party, the entire army, and all of t he
   people to wage a sacred war of justice against the US imperialist
   aggressors.

   The great leader Comrade Kim Il Sung, who bestowed a decisive meaning on
   the might of the ideology of the popular masses in the revolutionary war,
   brought the revolutionary enthusiasm and blazing patriotism of the
   officers and men of the people's army and people into high play, and by
   skillfully employing outstanding strategies and tactics and art of war, he
   defeated the numerical and technological superiority of the enemies with
   strategic and tactical superiority based on political and ideological
   superiority and thus continuously pushed the aggressors into a corner.

   The fact that our inexperienced people's army dealt an irrevocable
   crushing defeat to the enemies, always grasping the initiative in the
   confrontational war with the formid able imperialist enemies during the
   period of the Fatherland Liberation War, serves as a proud demonstration
   of the invincibility and might of the unique military strategy, idea, and
   art of war, outstanding resourcefulness, and commanding art of the great
   leader Comrade Kim Il Sung, who smashed the imperialists' theory of
   omnipotence of weapons by thoroughly materializing the military principle
   of chuch'e throughout the entire course of war and created a world example
   of anti-imperialist revolutionary war. (applause)

   The Fatherland Liberation War was an all-people revolutionary war in which
   the might of cohesion and unity of our army and people rallied firmly
   around the great leader Comrade Kim Il Sung was brought into full play.
   (applause)

   During the arduous days of war, the great leader always went among the
   soldiers and people and vigorously spurred them to war victory, while
   sharing joys and sorrows with them.

   The great leader even went to the foremost fronts where fiery rain was
   pouring down, braving risk to himself, and personally guided the
   operations and combats of the people's army units on the spot and
   instilled invincible wisdom and bravery in the fighting warriors, and by
   going into the people, he adopted revolutionary measures to stabilize
   their living and strengthen the rear.

   The people's army soldiers and people -- who had keenly realized from
   depths of their hearts through the dreamlike happy life during five years
   after national liberation and the days of war victory that the great
   Comrade Kim Il Sung is indeed a savior of their life and a defender of
   their destiny -- fought by dedicating everything they have to achieve the
   war victory with an indomitable faith and optimism that they would win
   without fail, thanks to the leader. (applause)

   The brilliant and brave people's army fighters and people literally turned
   themselves into human bombs, even when series of bombs were pouring down
   and the sky and land were burning, and defended each height and each inch
   of land with blood, and struggled by sacrificing themselves to assist the
   wartim e production and the frontlines.

   The matchless bravery, spirit of sacrifice, and mass heroism displayed
   highly among the officers and men of our people's army and people during
   the days of the Fatherland Liberation War were the manifestation of
   sublime ideological and spiritual traits regarding it as the highest honor
   and great happiness to fight by unsparingly dedicating their youth and
   life in order to desperately defend their leader, party, fatherland, and
   system. (applause)

   During the period of the Fatherland Liberation War, all the peace-loving
   people of the world actively supported and backed our people who were
   waging a sacred war of justice, and in particular, the Chinese people
   helped us with blood by dispatching volunteer forces organized with their
   outstanding sons and daughters to the Korean front.

   We appreciate and never forget this. (applause)

   Our people, by winning a brilliant victory in the Fatherland Liberation
   War under the outst anding leadership of the great leader Comrade Kim Il
   Sung, honorably defended our glorious Republic and the gains of the
   revolution, and they smashed the US imperialists' maneuvers for provoking
   a new world war and defended the security and peace of mankind.

   The historic victory in the Fatherland Liberation War showed that even the
   people of a small country are amply capable of defeating any enemy,
   however formidable, if all the people fight resolutely against the enemies
   in firm unity around the leader, and thus vigorously encouraged the
   struggle of the world's revolutionary people fighting for independence and
   ushered in an era of new upsurge in the anti-imperialist, anti-US
   struggle. (applause)

   The great leader Comrade Kim Il Sung, who shattered the myth of the
   powerfulness of the US imperialists for the first time in history by
   leading the Fatherland Liberation War to victory and once again rescued
   the destiny of the fatherland and nation from a life-and-de ath crisis,
   lives forever as a symbol of victory of the anti-imperialist cause of
   independence, and the leader's achievement of winning victory in the
   anti-US war will remain forever immortal, along with the history of the
   fatherland. (applause)

   The immortal achievements performed by the great leader Comrade Kim Il
   Sung in winning the war victory and the ever-victorious tradition of
   heroic Korea are being carried forward firmly from one century to the next
   and year after year under the outstanding military-first revolutionary
   leadership of the respected and beloved Supreme Commander Comrade Kim Jong
   Il. (applause)

   Even after the sound of gunfire stopped in the Fatherland Liberation War,
   the United States, far from drawing a due lesson from the crushing defeat
   it sustained in the Fatherland Liberation War, created grave obstacles
   before our revolution, while ceaselessly perpetrating military provocation
   maneuvers against our Republic, including the armed spy shi p Pueblo
   incident, the large spy plane EC-121 incident, and the P'anmunjo'm
   incident.

   Our people's army and people, who impregnably consolidated the military
   position of the revolution by thoroughly implementing the military line of
   self-defense and the one-a-match-for-100 slogan under the leadership of
   the party and the leader, have honorably defended the dignity of the
   fatherland and the gains of the revolution, while smashing the enemies'
   maneuvers for provoking a new war every step of the way. (applause)

   In the 1990s of the previous century, the US imperialists, by taking
   advantage of the collapse of socialism in various countries due to a great
   global political crisis, focused the brunt of their attack on our
   Republic, which was advancing with the banner of socialism and the banner
   of anti-imperialist, anti-US struggle unchangingly held high, and they
   unprecedentedly reinforced the pressure and offensive against us by coming
   up with the nuclear issue.
   &lt; br&gt;The respected and beloved Supreme Commander Comrade Kim Jong Il --
   who scientifically analyzed the international environment faced by our
   revolution and the trend of the rapidly changing situation at a time when
   severe trials approached before the fatherland and nation -- established
   the military-first politics, which places priority on military affairs and
   regards the revolutionary armed forces as a core, in all fields at a new
   lofty height, and thus provided a firm political and military guarantee
   for winning ultimate victory in the anti-US confrontational war.

   The great Comrade Kim Jong Il raised the entire army into a powerful army
   of idea and faith that regards the death-defying defense of the leader as
   the number one life and into the invincible and ever-victorious
   revolutionary powerful army of Mt Paektu fully equipped with modern means
   of offense and defense in the course of continuously traveling on the road
   of making on-the-spot inspections of the people' s army units day and
   night, and by leading the do-or-die anti-US confrontational war in the
   van, he rescued the destiny of the country and nation and paved a way out
   for the prosperity of the fatherland. (applause)

   Our army and people firmly defended our idea and system and our dignity
   and cause and highly displayed all over the world the majestic appearance
   and might of chuch'e Korea by single-handedly suppressing and smashing the
   anti-Republic isolating and crushing maneuvers of the US imperialists and
   imperialist reactionaries, who devote themselves to coercion and
   high-handedness while looking upon themselves as the world's sole
   superpower. This is truly the greatest victory and a historic miracle
   achieved through the respected and beloved Comrade Kim Jong Il's unique
   military-fist politics and military-first revolutionary strategy.
   (applause)

   This great victory achieved in the anti-US confrontational war clearly
   proved that the ever-victorious history and tradition of our people's army
   and people, who highly uphold in the van of the military-first revolution
   the resp ected and beloved Comrade Kim Jong Il, who is an unsurpassed
   heaven-sent brilliant commander, are eternal and that there is no strength
   in this world that can match the might of our single-hearted unity rallied
   firmly around the leader (ryo'ngdoja). (applause)

   Our army and people -- who are advancing under the respected and beloved
   Supreme Commander Comrade Kim Jong Il's outstanding military-first
   leadership, grasping the great leader Comrade Kim Il Sung's achievements
   of winning the war victory as a treasured sword in the anti-imperialist
   revolutionary struggle -- will firmly smash the aggression and challenge
   of the imperialist reactionaries and vigorously accelerate the victorious
   advance of our-style socialism in the future, too, as in the past.
   (applause)

   On this meaningful occasion of celebrating the anniversary of war victory
   with the great p ride and dignity of victors, by reflecting the endless
   admiration of all the party members, officers and men of the people's
   army, and people, I offer the loftiest respect and eternal glory to the
   great leader (suryo'ng) Comrade Kim Il Sung, who highly displayed the
   dignity and honor of our fatherland and nation by leading the Fatherland
   Liberation War to victory and made an immortal contribution to mankind's
   cause of anti-imperialist independence, and I extend the greatest honor
   and the most fervent gratitude to the great leader (ryo'ngdoja) Comrade
   Kim Jong Il, who is displaying the heroic spirit of chuch'e Korea all over
   the world with his unique military-first revolutionary leadership.
   (applause)

   Comrades!

   A touch-and-go situation, in which a war may erupt at any time, is
   prevailing on the Korean peninsula today due to the vicious anti-Republic
   confrontation of the United States and its following forces and their
   maneuvers for provoking a new war.

   Th e US imperialists, who make a business of war and regard killing and
   plunder as a mode of their existence, are scheming to use the Japanese
   reactionaries and the South Korean puppets as a shock brigade in a war of
   northward aggression by cooking up a tripartite military alliance among
   the United States, Japan, and South Korea, in a bid to realize by all
   means their ambition for aggression they failed to accomplish in the past
   Korean war, and they are frantically staging exercises for a war of
   aggression by committing vast armed forces and combat equipments.

   The US imperialists have decided on a preemptive nuclear attack as a basic
   method of Korean war, and they are countering our proposal for concluding
   a peace agreement with such nuclear war exercises as the Key Resolve and
   Foal Eagle joint military exercises, and sometime ago, they once again
   blatantly disclosed an attempt to mount a nuclear attack against our
   Republic in a so-called Nuclear Posture Review.

   T he US imperialists, which are scheming for the permanent division of our
   country, put the Lee Myung-bak (Ri Myo'ng-pak, Yi Myo'ng-pak) gang of
   traitors (yo'kcho'k p'aedang) -- which has been viciously perpetrating the
   maneuvers for confrontation against fellow countrymen with the backing of
   outside forces since the early days of coming to power -- at the forefront
   of anti-Republic confrontation to brutally trample on the historic
   North-South joint declarations and drive North-South relations to an
   overall catastrophe.

   The sinking incident of a puppet naval ship that recently took place in
   the West Sea (Yellow Sea) of Korea is a shameless fabricated act
   (nalchogu'k) cooked up by the United States in collusion with the Lee
   Myung-bak gang of traitors in order to accomplish their filthy political
   and military objective, and it is an extra-large criminal smear act
   (moryakku'k) aimed at coming up with a pretext for a new war of aggression
   against our Republic.

   The US imperialists and the South Korean puppets, who have been running
   about wildly in the anti-Republic crushing maneuvers while unreasonably
   linking the naval ship's sinking incident to us, are staging combined
   naval training on the largest scal e in history by embarking on reckless
   acts of actual warfare (silcho'nhaengdong) against us in the end and
   mobilizing vast armed forces of aggression, including an aircraft carrier,
   submarines, and hundreds of fighters, in East Sea (Sea of Japan) of Korea,
   and they are scheming to light fire to the fuse of a nuclear war by all
   means by expanding such military provocation step by step.

   The DPRK NDC, which assumes responsibility for the national defense of the
   country and the security of the nation, has solemnly declared that we
   could openly oppose with our powerful nuclear deterrent the nuclear war
   exercise commotion the US imperialists and the South Korean puppets are
   enforcing; that in response to the enemies' deliberate driving of the
   situation to the brink of war, we would, at any time necessary, commence
   our-style sacred war of retaliation based on nuclear deterrent; and that
   we would take all measures to the end to ferret out the truth behind the
   Ch'o'nan ship incident. (applause)

   The United States should realize that behind the war of aggression it
   provoked on 25 June is the victory of military-first Korea achieved on 27
   July.

   Right now, our millions of soldiers and people are boiling their blood
   with an enemy-annihilating resolve to firmly smash the brigandish US
   imperialists -- a sworn enemy and an old foe -- and the Lee Myung-bak gang
   of traitors, which is fawning on and following them and running amok
   frenziedly in order to push the nation to nuclear disaster, and to vent
   their deep-rooted grudge a hundred- and a thousand-fold.

   We will further bolster our nuclear deterrent in a newly advanced manner
   to cope with the increasing nuclear threat of the United States.
   This is our fair and square independent right and a merciless method of
   response employed by our revolutionary armed forces, which always emerge
   victorious by meeting the enemies head-on with the courage and attack
   spirit of Paektu. (applause)

   Should the US imperialists and the Lee Myung-bak gang of traitors provoke
   a new war of aggression in our country to the end, despite our repeated
   warnings, we will totally explode our tremendous military potential,
   including our self-defensive nuclear deterrent, and reduce to ashes the
   aggressors and all their strongholds, thereby clearly showing the enemies
   what a real war is like and completely getting rid of the root cause of
   war, and we will accomplish by all means the historic cause of the
   fatherland's reunification so eagerly desired by the entire nation.
   (applause)

   Today's situation, in which the US imperialists and their following forces
   are running amok indiscriminately, calls upon our army and people to more
   h ighly hold up the military-first banner.

   The great leader (ryo'ngdoja) Comrade Kim Jong Il has pointed out that the
   entire party, the entire army, and all of the people should uphold the
   party's military-first leadership and fight more resolutely for a great
   new victory of our revolution.

   The military-first (politics) serves as a lifeline of our revolution and a
   treasured sword of sure victory. (applause)

   By resolutely defending and thoroughly embodying the respected and beloved
   Comrade Kim Jong Il's military-first politics and military-first
   revolutionary line, we should adhere to and glorify generation after
   generation the immortal achievements of winning the war victory and
   traditions achieved by the great leader Comrade Kim Il Sung with the
   military-first (politics) and become honorable victors in the anti-US
   confrontational war.

   All the party members, officers and men of the people's army, and people
   should unchangingly cherish one mind of lo yalty to the party and leader
   (suryo'ng) in any trial and adversity and become passionate fighters of
   death-defying defense of the leader and guns-and-bombs heroes dedicating
   their lives to desperately defend the great Comrade Kim Jong Il, who
   represents our destiny and serves as an eternal banner of victory.
   (applause)

   All the officers and men of the people's army and people should arm
   themselves strongly with our party's chuch'e idea and military-first idea
   and loyally uphold the party's military-first leadership by uniting like
   steel around the Party CC headed by the great Comrade Kim Jong Il, thereby
   more highly displaying the might of our single-hearted unity, which has
   been consolidated resolutely amid the flames of the anti-imperialist
   revolutionary struggle.

   The people's army, which is the backbone (chungch'u) of self-defensive
   national defense capabilities and the first-line unit in the anti-US
   confrontational war, should hold high the slogan called, &amp; quot;Let us
   defend with our lives the Party CC headed by the great Comrade Kim Jong
   Il," and ceaselessly intensify the movement to win the title of O
   Chung-hu'p Seventh Regiment in order to further reinforce the entire army
   into the guns-and-bombs ranks of death-defying defense of the leader and
   the invincible and ever-victorious Mt Paektu revolutionary powerful army,
   and should maintain a high state of agitation and protect the outposts in
   the sky, land, and sea of the fatherland like an impregnable fortress.

   All the party members and working people should arm themselves strongly
   with our party's chuch'e-based viewpoint of war and anti-imperialist class
   consciousness and firmly establish the spirit of attaching importance to
   military affairs in the whole society, and thus give top priority to
   developing the national defense industry, faithfully learn military
   affairs, more firmly consolidate the whole country into an impregnable
   fortress, and make full preparati ons for war.

   By carrying on the proud tradition in which the army and people defeated
   the enemies while sharing their life and death within the same trenches
   during the past period of the Fatherland Liberation War, we should more
   highly display the might of great army-people unity based on the
   revolutionary soldier spirit, with the army assisting the people and the
   people assisting the army.

   At present when the historic WPK representatives conference is ahead, the
   revolutionary enthusiasm and militant spirit of our army and people are so
   high as to soar to the sky. (applause)

   All the party members, officers and men of the people's army, and people
   should highly uphold this year's joint editorial, the joint slogans issued
   by the Party CC and the Party CMC, and the idea and spirit of the letter
   from the Kimch'o'l (Kim Ch'aek Iron and Steel Complex) working class and
   more vigorously accelerate the march of great upswing, overflowing with
   the conviction of s ure victory and optimism.

   We should perform greater miracles and feats on all fronts of the
   construction of a powerful state, including the light industrial and
   agricultural sectors and the four leading sectors, and thus greet the WPK
   representatives conference with high political enthusiasm and brilliant
   labor results, glorify this year greeting the party's 65th founding
   anniversary as a year of great change (taebyo'nhyo'k) worth a special
   mention in the history of our fatherland, and fling open the gate to a
   powerful state without fail in the meaningful year 2012. (applause)

   All the brethren in the North, the South, and overseas should unite firmly
   under the banner of the 15 North North-South Joint Declaration and the 4
   October Declaration, which are great programs for reunification common to
   the nation, and open a new phase of independent reunification, while
   boldly smashing the maneuvers of the splittists at home and abroad.

   The victory of our revolu tion is certain, as the immortal achievements of
   winning victory in the anti-imperialist war performed by the great leader
   Comrade Kim Il Sung, who defeated the two formidable US and Japanese
   imperialist enemies in one generation, are radiating right and there is
   the ever-victorious military-first leadership of the respected and beloved
   Comrade Kim Jong Il, who is the world's best brilliant commander, as well
   as the invincible and ever-victorious revolutionary armed forces and the
   single-hearted unity of millions of soldiers and people, which is mightier
   than atomic bombs. (applause)

   Let us all unite firmly around the Party CC headed by the great Comrade
   Kim Jong Il and fight more vigorously for ultimate victory of the anti-US
   confrontational war, the fatherland's reunification, the construction of a
   powerful state, and the cause of the chuch'e revolution under the uplifted
   military-first banner. (applause)

   Long live the revolutionary idea of the great leader ( suryo'ng) Comrade
   Kim Il Sung! (a round of hurrah and applause)

   Long live the great leader (ryo'ngdoja) Comrade Kim Jong Il! (a round of
   hurrah and applause)

   Long live the glorious WPK, the organizer and guide of all victories of
   our people! (a round of hurrah and applause)

   (Description of Source: Pyongyang Korean Central Broadcasting Station in
   Korean -- DPRK state-run domestic radio
   network)Attachments:KYCSpeechatKorWarAnnivKCBS26Jul10.pdf

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   63) Back to Top
   US Repeats Ch'o'nan Sunk by DPRK Torpedo, Dismisses Russian Claims of 'Sea
   Mine'
   By Hwang Doo-hyong: "U.S. repeats Ch'o'nan [Cheonan] was sunk by N.
   Korea's torpedo: State Dept." - Yonhap
   Thursday July 29, 2010 04:03:24 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   64) Back to Top
   PRC Expert Sees Warming Up of US-ROK Military Alliance
   By staff reporters Shi Shangyu and Zhang Xin, from Beijing, US-ROK
   Alliance Warms Up  Expert: The Trend is Worth Observation - Wen Wei Po
   Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 03:01:21 GMT
   triggered worries among people of all sectors about the situation in East
   Asia. In an interview with the Wen Wei Po, Hong Yuan, a well-known
   strategist and deputy secretary general of the World Political Study
   Center of the China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), pointed out: The
   US-ROK joint military exercises have broadened to the scope of "United
   Nations troops". Before the exercises, they have informed many countries
   about the exercises, particularly including the 16 countries of the
   "United Nations troops" that took part in the Korean War, which indicates
   that the United States and ROK have elevated the exercises to the height
   of a war on the Korean peninsula.

   Hong Yuan pointed out: The joint military exercises have rapidly warmed up
   the US-ROK military alliance, and it seems that the US-ROK military
   alliance very likely will replace the US-Japan alliance. Although it is
   fundamentally impossible to replace the US-Japan alliance, the strong
   momentum of the new alliance is worth observation. The upcoming military
   exercises are extremely unfavorable to the stability and harmony in the
   East Asia region. Whether the exercises are carried out in the Yellow Sea
   or the Sea of Japan, China is involved as the target of the exercises, and
   China's security and interests have been harmed.

   Hong Yuan said: In this era, which is characterized by nuclear weapons and
   space technology, a country should enhance its consciousness of its
   strategic boundary and should have buffer zones with other powers, and
   these buffer zones should be respected by the two sides.

   (Description of Source: Hong Kong Wen Wei Po Online in Chinese -- Website
   of PRC-owned daily newspaper with a very small circulation; ranked low in
   "credibility" in Hong Kong opinion surveys due to strong pro-Beijing bias;
   has good access to PRC sources; URL:
   http://www.wenweipo.com)Attachments:wwp0726b.pdf

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by t he
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   65) Back to Top
   Us Says Corruption in Afghanistan Is 'An Ongoing Challenge'
   "Us Says Corruption in Afghanistan Is "An Ongoing Challenge"" -- KUNA
   Headline - KUNA Online
   Wednesday June 30, 2010 21:42:11 GMT
   (KUWAIT NEWS AGENCY) - WASHINGTON, June 30 (KUNA) -- The United States
   said on Wednesday that the issue of corruption is "an ongoing challenge"
   in Afghanistan while declining to comment on the allegation by
   Afghanistan's Attorney General that he was threatened in his job by the US
   ambassador to Kabul."There are many things that the government is doing,
   but we have to recognize that this is a si gnificant ongoing
   challenge..there is not the kind of robust financial structure in
   Afghanistan that there is in the developed world," said Assistant
   Secretary of State for public diplomacy Philip Crowley in a press
   briefing."That actually may work to Afghanistan's advantage given what is
   happening here in the last couple of years. But this is largely a cash
   economy. There is a lot of money flowing through Afghanistan, and out from
   Afghanistan," he added.Crowley affirmed that US officials will answer
   questions by Congress about "the accounting systems that are being put in
   place, the transparency that is being put in place." "The ability of
   Afghanistan to track money flows around the country has expanded
   significantly in recent months. President Karzai just this week has
   recommitted himself publicly to rooting out corruption," he
   added.Afghanistan's Attorney General Ishaq Alko told reporters that US
   ambassador to Kabul Karl Eikenberry threa tened to have him removed from
   his job if he did not take actions against an Afghan banker allegedly
   involved in fraud."I would simply say that Ambassador Eikenberry is doing
   his job as our civilian representative in Kabul. He has regular contact
   with officials of Afghan government from President Karzai through the
   Cabinet to local officials when he travels out around the country "he
   continues to encourage the Afghan government to follow through on the
   vision that President Karzai has laid out, particularly regarding
   corruption and capacity within the Afghan government," said Crowley when
   asked about the report.He declined to comment on the specific exchange
   between the Afghan attorney general and the US ambassador saying that
   Eikenberry "continues his important work in working with, but also
   encouraging the Afghan government to do everything it can not just because
   we're telling them to, but because this is important in terms of showing
   the Afghan people that this is a government that is going to root out
   corruption, this is a government that is going to expand the services that
   are available to its people.Meanwhile, US Attorney General Eric Holder is
   visiting Kabul to hold talks with Afghan officials about improving the
   justice system and fighting corruption."The Department of Justice has been
   very significantly involved in promoting the rule of law inside
   Afghanistan. You have got to strengthen institutions of government. People
   have to have confidence that if corruption or malfeasance is discovered,
   it will be aggressively investigated and prosecuted," noted Crowley."That
   continues to be our message to the government of Afghanistan, and in fact,
   we are helping Afghanistan to expand its capacity to do these various
   things," he concluded.(Description of Source: Kuwait KUNA Online in
   English -- Official news agency of the Kuwaiti Government; URL:
   http://www.kuna.net.kw)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   66) Back to Top
   War Document Leaks Not Likely To Affect Pakistans 'Postures' on India
   Commentary by Vikram Sood, former head of the Research and Analysis Wing,
   Indias external intelligence agency: Night of the Generals - The Asian
   Age Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 10:55:04 GMT
   This is not the first time that a Pakistan Army Chief has decided to stay
   on beyond his scheduled date of departure. The vers-ion that the civilian
   government of Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani granted Gen. Ashfaq Parvez
   Kayani this extension is a myth that very few believe. In fact,
   speculation and justificati-o ns for his extension were making the rounds
   in Islamabad in early summer this year. By May 2010, there were articles,
   sponsored undoubtedly, suggesting that Gen. Kayani had become
   indispensable to the scheme of things in Pakistan; that Pakistan was
   passing through a critical phase and continuity as the Army Chief was
   essential; that Gen. Kayani would not seek extension but would gracefully
   accept if invited to serve the country for a little while longer.Pakistani
   analyst Ayesha Siddiqa had earlier commented that a decision to extend the
   term would depend upon three factors -- an agreement within the GHQ, a nod
   from the United States and support of the government. With the
   Zardari-Gilani government perennially on the backfoot, there would have
   been very little resistance from the political setup. It is true that the
   US would like continuity and Gen. Kayani became the preferred option, as
   he was perceived to be able to deliver on US objectives.In the immediate
   future, Gen. Kay ani will have to keep the war on terror against selected
   sections going, keep the US at arm's length when it relates to the
   Pakistan Army's other strategic assets considered vital to its perceived
   aims in Afghanistan and India without any stoppage of funds from the US.
   He will also have to make some arrangements for those who will feel they
   have been deprived of the top slot because of this extension. For
   instance, at least 16 lieutenant-generals -- some of whom are now corps
   commanders -- are due to retire after November 23, 2010 and before Gen.
   Kayani's extended term expires in November 2013. This includes Lt. Gen.
   Shuja Pasha, Gen. Kayani's successor as ISI chief and who is already on a
   year's year extension. Gen. Pervez Musharraf had not extended the terms of
   his generals but accommodated them in civilian assignments. Increasing
   numbers of Pakistani military officers who will now be due for promotions
   as major-general and lieutenant-general or equivalent will be those re
   cruited during Gen. Zia-ul Haq's days of excessive Islamisation.The
   Pakistan Army -- with its ultimate control on policies relating to India,
   Afghanistan and the nuclear button -- has shown remarkable tactical
   brilliance in enhancing its position in its own country but has left the
   country with very little resilience to tackle its major internal
   socio-economic problems. Outsiders see the march of folly of a nation with
   a crumbling economy, dwindling exports and the sole source of dollars
   being handouts by the US and the International Monetary Fund, with
   terrorists knocking at various doors even in Punjab. Yet it continues to
   convince its people that "enemy" India is still trying to undo Pakistan.
   In the process, Pakistan has been involved in a two-front jihad, has
   punched above its weight and thus finds itself in the middle of a
   crippling and tragic blowback. Caught in the brinkmanship of its rhetoric,
   Pakistan's rulers are unable to retreat from the cul de sac int o which
   they have pushed their country.Pakistan's tragedy has been that its civil
   society is today under siege from Islamic radicals and the Army, and these
   radicals and terrorists have been raised by the Army. With all other
   systems of law and order collapsing, civil society is dependent on the
   same Army for its own security and well-being. That is why at various
   moments in the history of Pakistan whenever the Army has been seen to take
   over the reins upfront, there have been many from within this liberal
   society who actually showered accolades on the Army.

   The invisible hand of Rawalpindi was patently visible in the fiasco of the
   recent talks in Islamabad. Now that we have Gen. Kayani in charge of
   policy towards India and Afghanistan for the next three years, we should
   expect some hardening of attitudes. Pakistan's tactics in Jammu and
   Kashmir have already begun to change. Terrorist violence in the Valley has
   diminishing returns for Pakistan under the present circum stances; it wins
   Pakistan no new friends and attracts adverse attention from the US. We
   take solace behind encouraging statistics, but they tell only a part of
   the story. Stone-throwing tactics in the Valley portrayed as a people's
   movement in the new tactic where the state is made to look increasingly
   helpless and vicious.Pakistan's postures on India are not going to be
   affected by the recent disclosures by WikiLeaks. Despite the usual
   exultation in India forever looking for Western approval, the leaks do not
   say anything new. They are more about the US. The speed with which US
   national security adviser James Jones supported the Pakistan government
   immediately after the disclosures, confirming US commitment to deepening
   partnership with Afghanistan and Pakistan, the manner in which AfPak
   special envoy Richard Holbrooke certified Pakistan was part of the
   solution in Afghanistan and the timing of the release of $500 million
   during Hillary Clinton's Islamabad visit (where she called on Gen. Kayani)
   -- these only confirm the desperation of America's Afghan situation.
   Besides, Gen. Kayani's and the ISI chief's closeness to the Haqqani
   networks, their close liaison and protection of the Quetta Shura impinge
   directly on the US effort in Afghanistan. Pakistan has strengthened its
   assets in Afghanistan by inducting Lashkar-e-Tayyaba terrorists into
   Afghanistan.Pakistan carefully assessed the limitations of US military
   power and Indian decibel. The Americans had needed Pakistan to launch into
   Afghanistan in 2001; nine years later they need Pakistan to come to an
   honourable ar-rangement in Afghanistan, wh--a-tever that might be. Given
   the paranoia that affects Punjabi officers in the Pakistan Army al-ong
   with the desire to avenge 1971, there is need for India to prepare for the
   future and stre-n-g-t-hen its defence and intelligence capabilities
   substantially -- in quality and quantity. We face multiple fronts --
   Pakistan, Ch-i-na, terrorism and the ungua rded sea.

   While India-Pakistan talks may become desirable at some future date under
   suitable circumsta-n-ces, they are neither irreversible nor
   uninterruptable. India must dispel the impression that there is no option
   except to talk to Pakistan and lose on the negotiating table what we have
   won on the battlefield. Therefore, bet-ween the option to talk and total
   war there are several options that can be exercised and we should be
   prepared for the long haul.

   (Description of Source: New Delhi The Asian Age online in English --
   Website of the daily The Asian Age, with its flagship edition in New
   Delhi; also published from Kolkata, Mumbai, and London. Run by T.
   Venkattram Reddy, the owner of Hyderabad-based Deccan Chronicle group.
   Maintains pro-government, centrist editorial policy. Chronicle and Age
   share editorial content and their combined circulation is claimed to be 1
   million; URL: www.asianage.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally cop yrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   67) Back to Top
   Pakistan Army Chief ExtensionCivil Govt Caved In To Military Pressure
   Article by Saida Fazal: Weak Government, Strong Generals - Business
   Recorder Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 10:26:32 GMT
   ARTICLE (July 29 2010): In which other functioning democracy an army
   chief's appointment or extension in service gets as much importance as has
   the extension given to COAS General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani? None. The reason
   is simple. In democracies the power resides with elected governments
   which, like in the case of our next-door neighbour India, normally decide
   military appointments on the basis of seniority princ iple, and announce
   the same in a routine, unobtrusive way.

   But the Zardari/Gilani government has done the opposite. As if in a state
   of emergency, the Prime Minister appeared on the TV shortly before
   midnight the other evening just to say that he had decided to grant the
   army chief an extension in service, not for one year, two years, but a
   full three-year term because, he said, it is necessary to have continuity
   in army leadership while the war against terrorism has entered a critical
   stage. Both, the manner of the announcement and its rationale have raised
   serious concerns. The incumbent's retirement was due in November, which
   meant the government could take its time to make up its mind. More
   important, as Gilani said later, it was an administrative decision. In
   that case, it should have been treated like a routine administrative
   matter, the announcement going out in the form of a notification, issued
   by the Ministry of Defence. The Prime Minister did not need to ma ke an
   urgent, three-minute address-to-the-nation just to read out a service
   extension order.

   So far as the continuity argument goes, people have rightly pointed out
   that the army, being one of this country's most disciplined and
   professional organisations, individuals should not matter in ensuring
   continuity of the war effort. But the Prime Minister argued that a 'Sipah
   Salaar' (military commander) is never changed in the middle of a war. For
   his benefit, it would be useful to point to some old and new examples from
   history, which suggest otherwise. Take the case of Khalid bin Walid, the
   invincible commander of Muslim army under Caliph Omar. Just as the general
   was poised to make a triumphant march into Damascus, the Caliph issued the
   general's own marching orders. In modern times, US president Abraham
   Lincoln changed seven generals during the course of the American Civil
   War. And while the Korean War raged on, president Harry Truman removed the
   famous and flamboyant General Douglas MacArthur - revered in his country
   as a war hero for his performance during World War II- of the command of
   US forces in Korea. Just last month, President Obama fired General Stanley
   McChrystal, commander of US forces in Afghanistan - though in this case
   the general asked for his ouster.

   Leadership, of course, is important in every field of human endeavour, but
   modern armies are more attuned to institutional than individual authority
   in planning and executing wars.

   Notwithstanding the counter-arguments, the Prime Minister did have the
   prerogative to ask General Kayani to stay on for another year (three years
   is rather excessive). He could have saved himself much of the criticism he
   now faces had his office followed the regular appointments/extensions
   procedure, and refrained from offering flimsy justifications. He acted the
   way he did, it seems, because the other side was getting impatient to see
   things in black and white rather than to wait for the government to resort
   to its usual delay and obfuscation tactics. It is obvious that the
   government caved in to pressure, and, in a state of nervousness, ignored
   the need to maintain poise and composure.

   The Prime Minister has since been making blunderous statements one after
   another to justify the controversial decision. Aside from the ones
   mentioned earlier, he has been saying things, which range from
   self-contradictory to just plain outrageous. Whi le claiming it was an
   administrative decision and hence there was no need to consult the
   Opposition, he said he had called Nawaz Sharif but he was not available on
   the phone. If it was a mere administrative decision, what was the need to
   call the PML-N leader?

   In an inadvertent statement last Friday Gilani actually revealed what the
   mere 'administrative decision' had tried to achieve. After this, he said,
   all "major stakeholders" that, according to him, include the President,
   the Prime Minister, the Chief Justice and the COAS, are in a "secure
   position" till 2013. Basically, he is saying now that the army chief has
   what he wanted the hope and expectation is that he would let the President
   and Prime Minister complete their respective terms. Thus individual dreams
   and desires get precedence over thoughtful efforts aimed at strengthening
   of the democratic institutions.

   The Prime Minister has a lot of explaining to do to the public. First of
   all, how does the army chief become a stakeholder in the system in the
   league of the executive and judiciary heads? He leads a government
   organisation, not any of the state institutions that comprise the
   executive, parliament, and judiciary. Second of all, an elected government
   should look to the people for securing the position of its president or
   the prime minister rather than a general. The entire episode is reflective
   of the sad state of our democracy.

   It needs to be said that a civilian government is as stro ng as is its
   ability to deliver good governance, internal and external security. Soon
   after taking over power, the PPP government abdicated responsibility
   regarding the challenges extremists in Swat and the tribal areas posed to
   the writ of the state. The Prime Minister announced handing over complete
   control of counter-insurgency operations to the military leadership. At
   the same time, the government started an ill advised confrontation with
   the judiciary, disregarding public opinion, but agreeing to do the needful
   on the intervention of the quiet general, thus helping him restore, in the
   public eye, the army's image that had been badly sullied by his
   predecessor.

   Corruption cases, a confrontational posture toward the judiciary, and poor
   governance have kept weakening the government's position, lending
   corresponding clout to the army and a say in vital security as well as
   governance affairs. Slowly and steadily, it has regained an upper hand.
   The GHQ, instead of the civilian leadership, has been negotiating the
   terms of economic and military assistance with American officials. Before
   the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrived for the strategic
   partnership dialogue earlier this month, various civilian departments
   presented their input at the GHQ, leaving it to consolidate and finalise
   our side's proposals. This skewed civil-military relationship should be a
   matter of worry for all those who care about this country's future as a
   stable democracy.

   (Description of Source: Karachi Business Recorder Online in English --
   Website of a leading business daily. The group also owns Aaj News TV; URL:
   http://www.brecorder.com/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   68) Back to Top
   ROK 'Viewpoint' Column Urges ROK to Learn From UK Politician Wilberforce
   "Viewpoint" column by Park Sang-ik, professor of history education at
   Woosuk University: "Summoning The Spirit of Wilberforce" - JoongAng Daily
   Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 01:47:09 GMT
   In 1952, the British newspaper The Times wrote that expecting democracy to
   bloom in Korea was like expecting a rose to bloom in a trash can.In
   retrospect it's quite an interesting point of view, as it seems as though
   the newspaper forgot about England's own past.In the early 19th century,
   politicians in England often gained votes by offering ample amounts of
   food and drink to the public. Voters, in turn, often made public demands
   for money in exchange for their backing at the polls.It was quite similar
   to Korean politics in the 1950s, when votes were bought with makgeolli, or
   traditional rice wine, and shoes.In the aftermath of the industrial
   revolution in Korea, many electoral districts in rural areas suffered from
   population declines as people increasingly moved to cities. Voters in
   these areas were often bribed with money. There were also many "pocket
   electoral districts," where elite families in rural towns publicly
   revealed their favorite candidates and then bribed or coerced voters to
   back their choices.In England, the politician William Wilberforce played a
   decisive role in upgrading British politics. Wilberforce entered politics
   at the age of 21 and over time formed a network of influential like-minded
   politicians who rejected the practice of buying votes with bribes.The
   corrupt and decadent culture of the British aristocrats was deep-rooted.
   The Prince of Wales, the eldest son of King George III, was known to enjoy
   cavorting around with many different women and also had a gambling habit.
   His lawmaker friends often paid off his astronomical debt with money from
   state coffers.At the time, the British parliament was filled with
   alcoholic lawmakers. William Pitt, who was known as a well-mannered
   politician, was a no exception, appearing at parliament meetings
   drunk.Wilberforce's first goal was to overturn tradition. He was
   determined to improve the standing and image of aristocrats and believed
   that parliament must initiate the campaign to raise the country's ethical
   and moral standards.He was determined to improve the politics of the
   country to a world-class level.Through strategies that involved promoting
   the greater good in an effort to pressure society, Wilberforce managed to
   establish a law that laid out punishments for unethical and immoral
   actions undertaken by high-ranking public servants, such as excessive
   drinking and lewd behavior. The spirit of the Victorian age (1837~1901),
   which emphasized morality, was born through such efforts.Another one of
   Wilberforce's successes was abolishing slav ery. Anti-slavery campaigns
   were unpopular at the time because Britain was the world's strongest
   maritime force. It played a key role in transporting African slaves to
   North America, which was a profitable affair for both the country and for
   its people.The value of the slave trade to England at the time was
   equivalent to the importance of the defense industry to the United States
   today. The country's royal families, aristocrats and merchants all treated
   the abolitionists as unpatriotic traitors.Under the circumstances, a
   politician who advocated for the complete abolition of slavery had to
   abandon his lofty goals of winning a high post. In other words, he had to
   move the greater good to the forefront of personal gains.At the same time,
   he had to be someone with enough persuasiveness and popularity to convince
   the public, and he had to be someone with the intellect to handle a
   complicated issue.Wilberforce, who survived two assassination attempts,
   was that someone. His campai gn led to the Slavery Abolition Act, which
   abolished slavery in most of the British empire within a year. Wilberforce
   learned of the news on his deathbed and died three days later.The world
   before Wilberforce and the world after he died were completely different;
   it was the diffe rence between lead and gold.The public, which used to
   despise politicians, had a different mind-set. In the era after
   Wilberforce, politicians had to adhere to public standards in the realm of
   morals - or at least pretend they were doing so.The role of a politician
   is to be a respected leader, and we owe much of that mentality to
   Wilberforce.Korea has seen many political leaders since its liberation
   from Japan's colonial rule, but most of them have had plenty of flaws. In
   many cases, our leaders have actually fallen short of the average ethical
   and moral standards of the general public. Rather than leading the people,
   they actually create problems through scandalous words and actions.Will it
   ever be possible for Koreans to be blessed with a political leader with
   noble ambitions, one who can reform the frivolous and shallow spirit of
   21st century politics?(Description of Source: Seoul JoongAng Daily Online
   in English -- Website of English-language daily which provides
   English-language summaries and full-texts of items published by the major
   center-right daily JoongAng Ilbo, as well as unique reportage; distributed
   as an insert to the Seoul edition of the International Herald Tribune;
   URL: http://joongangdaily.joins.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   69) Back to Top
   Xinhua 'Interview': U.S. Solar Energy Technology Farther Advanced Than
   Other Countries: Expert
   Xinhua " ;Interview": "U.S. Solar Energy Technology Farther Advanced Than
   Other Countries: Expert" - Xinhua
   Thursday July 29, 2010 01:34:13 GMT
   WASHINGTON, July 28 (Xinhua) -- Though the Unites States comes only the
   fourth place as a solar energy market, behind Germany, Italy and Japan,
   its solar energy technology is farther advanced than any other country in
   the world, Rhone Resch, president and CEO of the U.S. Solar Energy
   Industries Association, said.

   Germany is a larger market than the United States and Japan has bent to
   the photovoltaic industry for decades. But it is the United States which
   holds the cutting edge, he said."When you look at the innovation that's
   coming out of our universities and our research laboratories as well as so
   many of the companies, I would actually argue that with respect to the
   actual technology, the efficiencies, the applications that solar is used
   and automatically the scale on which solar is applied, the U.S. is
   significantly farther advanced than either Germany or Japan with respect
   to technology development," Resch told Xinhua.Photovoltaics was invented
   in the United States' Bell Labs; the lowest cost panels are manufactured
   by a U.S. company, First Solar; the highest efficient panels in the world
   are manufactured by a U.S. company, Sun Power, Resch noted.According to
   the expert, the future development of solar energy industry depends on
   breakthroughs or innovations in regard to the cost, efficiency and the
   appearances of solar panels.Regarding cost, he explained that since a
   solar panel is a commodity product, every company out there is trying to
   drive their cost down. "If you can lower your cost and assure that you
   have high quality, then automatically you are going to win the
   race."According to Resch, the wholesale price of photovoltaic panels has
   come down by nearly 50 percent in th e last two years. Currently in the
   United States as an incentive to promote this industry, all homeowners and
   businesses get a 30 percent tax credit from the federal government and
   state governments.There has been a big push around the world to improve
   the efficiency of solar energy, Resch said, citing some Chinese companies
   which he said have made great strides."There are tremendous new companies,
   new products that will be available in the next 12 to 18 months that will
   both lower the cost as well as increase the efficiency of solar," he
   said.In regard to the appearance of solar panels, Resch says the future
   trend is to merge the panels with the buildings they are installed into so
   they are not so protruding as now. "Specialists will come in and look how
   to integrate solar into the skin of the building, into the roof materials
   of a building, into the shingles of a building," he said.Dow Chemical is
   making a product that looks just like a roof shingle tha t were previously
   used in the United States with solar integrated into it. That kind of
   building-integrated solar panel is something that consumers want, Resch
   said."You are starting to see it more and more commercially available. And
   I think it's really going to change the image of solar energy and
   automatically the application of solar in the United States."Resch says
   the biggest competition in the industry will occur between crystalline
   silicon and thin film."Crystalline silicon still represents the vast
   majority of the solar manufacturing today. But thin film products are
   coming on in a significant way," Resch said.(Description of Source:
   Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for
   English-language audiences (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   70) Back to Top
   Pakistan Author Flays US-Based Indian Lobbies Idea of Division of
   Afghanistan
   Article by Saleem Safi: Division of Afghanistan? - The News Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 09:05:49 GMT
   Thursday, July 29, 2010

   The CIA is arguably the most powerful intelligence agency in the world and
   maintains an espionage network in every part of the world. Some of the
   Pakistani rulers, besides being obedient US admirers, are the CIA's
   informants as well.

   It appears that power has blinded American policymakers regarding
   Afghanistan and Pakistan. They have committed blunders upon blunders.
   Despite the thousands of US soldiers present in Afghanistan and a large
   network of informants extending to remote villages and towns there, US
   policymakers hav e failed to appreciate the ground realities. The
   Americans have yet to set realistic policy goals for the region. Recent
   history is witness to the fact that the US always tried to convert the
   impossible into the possible.

   The Americans' single-minded pursuit of defeating the USSR in Afghanistan
   overlooked the consequences of radicalisation of the Muslim world. After
   achieving this goal, the US pitched Mujahideen factions against each
   other. Initially they even supported the Taliban movement. But after 9/11,
   the US presented the throne of Kabul to the same old warlord who had been
   punished by the Taliban once.

   In the struggle against the Taliban, the Americans grew ambitious enough
   to set new objectives in the region. They tried to encircle China, squeeze
   Iran, control Central Asian natural resources, punish Pakistan and make
   India a dominant regional player. In reaction, all these forces covertly
   supported the Taliban to make Afghanistan another Vietnam for Ame rica. If
   some of the contents of Wikileaks reports are true, then that will be the
   result of the American tactics in Afghanistan.

   Instead of reviewing past blunders, the US wanted to make Karzai a
   scapegoat for its own failures. After the failure of this scheme, the
   Americans tried to replicate Iraq's counterinsurgency in Afghanistan to
   form regional private tribal militias to fight the insurgency. This plan
   was doomed to fail from the outset. Therefore, the Indian lobbies in the
   US have now floated the idea of division of Afghanistan into a Pakhtun
   south and non-Pakhtun north.

   The ex-US ambassador to India, Robert Blackwill, an Indian lobbyist, has
   advised the US and Nato countries to follow this path. He suggested that
   the US and Nato forces should stay in northern Afghanistan and use that
   area as a staging ground against the Pakhtun south. This US-India plan is
   unlikely to succeed.

   The idea of the division of Afghanistan is reflective of the sick mind s
   still living in the past. If Iraq, with stronger and more distinct
   sectarian and linguistic divisions than Afghanistan, could not be divided
   on these lines, Afghanistan is least expected to go that way. Afghanistan
   has various linguistic groups and identities, which are airing grievances
   of exploitation at the hands of the dominant "other."

   But Afghans have proved to be the staunchest of nationalists in the
   region. Afghan poetry expresses love and longing for the homeland. Afghan
   songs praise Pakhtuns, Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks alike. Afghan literature
   has the highest intensity of nationalism in the region while the country's
   music is all about "Afghaniyat."

   Almost all Pakhtun Afghans can speak Darri and every non-Pakhtun Afghan
   understands Pashto. In contrast with the region, the Taliban movement is
   predominantly Pakhtun, but it also boasts of individuals from other
   linguistic groups. The movement is fast spreading in northern and wester n
   Afghanistan.

   Gulbadin Hikmatyar, who is considered a Pakhtun, hails from the extreme
   northern province of Kunduz. His party consists of people from other
   linguistic groups. He has married off his daughter to a Tajik. One of the
   four most trusted lieutenants of Ahmed Shah Masood and Qasim Faheem was a
   Pakhtun from Laghman. Abdullah Laghmani was deputy to the Afghan
   intelligence chief and was killed in a suicide attack some time ago.

   Kunduz in the north is a majority Pakhtun province while Herat in the
   south is a majority Tajik region. The central province of Logar too is a
   predominantly Pakhtun area but a large number of Tajiks also live here.
   Northern Afghanistan is not populated by a single linguistic group.
   Hazaras populate central Afghanistan while Tajik and Uzbek regions in the
   north are separated by the Pakhtun region of Kunduz. The tension between
   Uzbeks and Tajiks exacerbates the tension between Pakhtuns and Tajiks.
   Similarly, the Hazara community is u nwilling to live with either Tajiks
   or Uzbeks. The last presidential election was witness to the fact that
   Uzbek Abdul Rasheed Dostam, Tajik Qasim Faheem and Hazara Ustad Muhaqqiq
   supported the Pakhtun Hamid Karzai against Tajik Dr Abdullah. Currently,
   an Uzbek and a Hazara are vice presidents. In the presidential elections,
   no candidate from Pakhtun, Hazara, Uzbek and Tajik communities ever
   invoked race or linguistic affiliation.

   The Taliban resistance is not based on language or race. The movement
   surfaced against the excessively unruly commanders of Pakhtuns like
   Hekmatyar, Ustad Sayyaf, Yunus Khalis and Sibghatullah Mujaddidi. The
   Taliban had fought against Pakhtun commanders from Kandahar to Kabul.
   After the surrender of Kabul, they brutally hanged Dr Najibullah, a
   Pakhtun, but not a Tajik or Uzbek. Mullah Omar had not sacrificed his rule
   and taken up a fight with the only superpower for the sake of Pakhtuns,
   but for Arabs.

   Despite knowing these realities, those who plan the division of
   Afghanistan are living in a fools' paradise.

   The writer works for Geo TV.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The News Online in English -- Website of
   a widely read, influential English daily, member of the Jang publishing
   group. Neutral editorial policy, good coverage of domestic and
   international issues. Usually offers leading news and analysis on issues
   related to war against terrorism. Circulation estimated at 55,000; URL:
   http://www.thenews.com.pk/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   71) Back to Top
   Pakistan Article Terms Reports Accusing ISI as Inconsistent, Fabricated
   Article by Ikram Sehgal: Here we go again! - The News Online&lt; /div&gt;
   Thursday July 29, 2010 08:44:29 GMT
   In another major attack on Pakistan's credibility as a responsible entity
   among the comity of nations, among the 92,000 secret US documents about
   the Afghan war leaked to the media by WikiLeak, a number of reports
   accused Pakistan's premier intelligence agency of being in collusion with
   the Taliban. The "war logs" also alleged ISI involvement in plots to kill
   President Hamid Karzai as well as planning strategy for attacks against US
   and coalition forces in Afghanistan. Independent analysts warned that most
   of the intelligence material was of questionable value, coming from
   sources inimical to Pakistan. Clearly fabricated, inconsistent and
   certainly not verified, it was not surprising that most emanated from the
   National Directorate of Security, Afghanistan's premier intelligence
   agency, which was taken over lock, stock and barrel by India's RAW when
   the Northern Alliance came to power. As director general of the ISI in the
   late 1980s, Lt Gen (Retd) Hameed Gul was actively working with the CIA in
   aiding the Taliban. His views are well known and have not really changed.
   His extreme stance is presently at variance with the moderate nature of
   the "great silent majority" of Pakistanis. One does not agree with him on
   any number of issues, however one does respect his integrity and
   patriotism. To suggest that he would support the Taliban actively in any
   way, particularly when the army that he loves and served with distinction
   is at war with them, is, in his own words, "preposterous." There is a
   radical difference between the ISI that existed during the Afghan war and
   the ISI that exists today. Clandestine organisation like the ISI, the CIA,
   MI-5 and the former KGB, of necessity operate in grey areas. But that any
   would work against the best interests of the state is ridiculous. The
   Pakistani army shields Pakistan from its enemies, the ISI provides the
   outer shield for Pakistan and the army. Our enemies' motives in their
   constant attacks on the ISI are well known: reduce the shield and you
   compromise the security and integrity of Pakistan. The documents leaked by
   WikiLeak include details of war crimes by US and coalition forces and the
   involvement of Karzai's family in drug smuggling, yet these got only
   cursory media attention. Nowhere in the 92,000 documents does there seem
   to be any mention of India, good or bad. One may well ask: why this golden
   silence on India? True to form, the Afghan presidential spokesman, Waheed
   Omar, studiously focused on Pakistan, saying the "documents could help
   raise awareness on the sanctuaries Islamabad provides for militant
   groups." That about sums up Afghanistan's hostility to Pakistan and its
   ingratitude for all the sacrifices Pakistan has made (and is making) for
   Afghanistan. Only the week before, the Pakistani government had signed a
   memorandum of understanding under which the Afghans will receive
   most-favoured free access to Pakistani ports as well as to roads/railways
   communications infrastructure. It is time our foreign policy to discover
   self-respect. One is forced to use language that is not diplomatic: till
   they learn to shut up and keep shut, we should allow only food essentials
   for Afghanistan to transit through Pakistan, and nothing else. As regards
   transit facilities for India to Afghanistan, either through Karachi port
   or Wagah, somebody in our government needs to get their head examined for
   even agreeing to talk about it. We do not need Afghanistan, they need us.
   The US has forcefully condemned the leaks as harmful to their national
   security interests. However, there is a hint of a "wink" and a "nod" to
   put Pakistan under further pressure "to do none." One has great respect
   for Admiral Mike Mullen. What he has achieved in calming the suspicions
   and f ears of our armed forces is remarkable but this doublespeak in the
   US establishment is shocking. One is heartened by comments by US lawmakers
   who have taken into account the tremendous s acrifices rendered by
   Pakistani security forces in dealing with the militants. They rightly say
   that the leaks do not represent facts as they exist on the ground today.
   Richard Haass, chairman of the Council of Foreign Relations appeared on a
   show (hosted by CNN's Fareed Zakaria) to announce blithely that Pakistan
   allows Al-Qaeda to roam about freely in Pakistan and manipulates
   Afghanistan in its designs against India. While Indian Muslim Fareed
   Zakaria (an original "Uncle Tom") has a vested interest in showing himself
   as being more loyal than the king, these accusations were mind-boggling.
   We are the ones suffering most at the hands of Al-Qaeda and, to correct
   Haass, just look at the geography. It is the other way around: it is India
   that manipulates Afghanistan for its own purpos es against Pakistan. With
   experience in the White House working with both the younger and elder
   Bush, Haass was an insider in the making of decisions affecting millions.
   In his Essay "Dilemma of Dissent," Haass disclosed that "very frequently
   the rulers and their close aides made important (decisions) without proper
   enquiry, analysis or debate." Those facilitating such decision-making
   Haass calls "enablers." One way to avoid becoming an "enabler" was to
   resign. That unfortunately requires a conscience. Richard Haass became an
   "enabler" rather than risk "being ignored or overruled." Bluntly put, many
   American soldiers and Iraqis across the board have died (and are dying)
   because people like Haass wanted to stay within the reaches of power. If
   any order is unlawful, further action is a matter of morality. People like
   Haass sacrificed morality at the altar of their own careers. To quote from
   my article "Defining C haracter" published on May 28, 2009: "Richard Haass
   may be brilliant, he is also a self-confessed intellectually dishonest
   person." Yet, people like Haass proliferate in the upper reaches of US
   decision-making and can rule the airwaves to spread false perceptions.
   Perception is nine-tenths of media law. To quote from my recent article
   "Pie in the sky": "Propaganda is a deliberate attempt to persuade people
   by any available media to think and then behave in a manner desired by the
   source, it is really the means to an end. There could be individual
   Taliban sympathisers in the ranks of Pakistan's intelligence agencies and
   other official circles, but to say that Pakistan provides concerted
   institutional support...is nonsense, it demeans not only the blood that
   our soldiers have shed fighting the Taliban but that of our innocent
   civilians also." As a coherent platform for our national security
   strategy, our present media policy is quite impracti cal and is tilted
   inwards, rather than being focussed externally. The stakes are high, a
   comprehensive media strategy must incorporate the new ground realities and
   must project Pakistan abroad by coalescing and force-multiplying the
   talent and potential of the private sector. The attacks on the army and
   the ISI have grave national repercussions for us, and they will happen
   again and again unless we do something.

   The writer is a defence and political analyst.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The News Online in English -- Website of
   a widely read, influential English daily, member of the Jang publishing
   group. Neutral editorial policy, good coverage of domestic and
   international issues. Usually offers leading news and analysis on issues
   related to war against terrorism. Circulation estimated at 55,000; URL:
   http://www.thenews.com.pk/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained fr om the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   72) Back to Top
   Afghan TV Program Debates Forthcoming Kabul Conference, Use of
   International Aid
   From the "De Owonay Bahs (Discussion of the Week)" program; for assistance
   with multimedia elements, contact the OSC Customer Center at (800)
   205-8615 or oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - National TV Afghanistan
   Tuesday June 29, 2010 17:53:19 GMT
   President Hamid Karzai recently paid an official visit to Japan. Part of
   our program discussion today focuses on President Karzai's visit to Japan
   and his achievements during the visit. Moreover, the Kabul International
   Conference is due to be held in Kabul on 20 July this year. Our program
   will also discuss the Kabul Conference. The program guests are Najibollah
   Manalay, media adviser to the Ministry of Finance, Azrakhsh Hafezi, head
   of international relations of Afghanistan's Chamber of Commerce and
   Industries, and Sadeqizadah Nili, lawmaker and member of the economic and
   financial commission of the lower house of parliament. Studio

   (Announcer) As you know, President Hamid Karzai visited Japan recently.
   Earlier, he also visited other countries such as China. Would you please
   elaborate on the economic significance of the president's recent visits,
   and especially his visit to Japan? Hafezi

   (Hafezi) (passage omitted on opening pleasantries)

   The significance of a country to a very large extent depends on the extent
   of its foreign relations. Isolated countries tend to be insignificant
   countries. After many years of isolation, fortunately Afghanistan has now
   been at the center of international attention over the past several years.
   However, we have not been able to take full advantage of th e
   opportunities and the conditions that the international attention to
   Afghanistan brings about. Unfortunately, to date we have not been able to
   define the contours of our interests. We have not been able to produce a
   clear strategy toward self-sufficiency, poverty reduction, job creation,
   and an increase in per capita income. We have not made a thorough
   assessment of the opportunities and favorable conditions available to us.
   At times, I have been part of Afghan delegations abroad, but we have not
   been able to defend the interests of the people of Afghanistan through
   effective proposals that will convince our interlocutors of our
   viewpoints.

   (Announcer) What factors are relevant here, especially over the past nine
   years?

   (Hafezi) One main factor for our lackluster performance is that we always
   react to events rather than moving ahead of events. In fact, we are not
   even moving along with events; we always trail behind developments. For
   example, the intern ational intervention in Afghanistan occurred as a
   consequence of the 9/11 violent attacks on the World Trade Center in the
   United States. The international community came to Afghanistan and
   overthrew the Taliban regime, but it took us three to four more months
   before we established a government in Afghanistan. This serves as an
   example of the fact that we do not think about alternatives in advance;
   oftentimes we are caught offguard. Subsequent to the overthrow of the
   Taliban regime, the international community invited us to come and rebuild
   our country. Afghanistan's national unity had suffered as a result of
   prolonged conflict and we should have repaired the country's national
   unity. This means national unity, not in the sense of the unity of tribes
   as is often construed, but our ability and willingness to make maximum use
   of all the capacities available in Afghanistan. Unfortunately, however, we
   have not been able to make good use of all our national capacities becau
   se of rampant factionalism where we categorize each other with all sorts
   of labels and political agendas. Factionalism breeds exclusivity; hence,
   when a particular faction attains power, it tends to exclude members of
   other factions no matter how capable they might be. Such practices
   undermine and reduce our capacities and the result is that we are heavily
   dependent on NGOs.

   To date, over $1.2 billion in international assistance has been spent on
   what is called capacity building, but I do not know what the results have
   been. The fact is that we do have capacities and we have a lot of talented
   people in our nation, but these capacities are not being used. As for the
   president's visits to foreign countries, I was also among those who
   accompanied the president to China as well as to other countries
   previously. The president readily delivered a speech outlining the
   national needs. However, what is needed is that, before the president's
   foreign visits, we should have specialist teams to study the capacities
   and potential benefits in foreign countries that the president visits.

   (Announcer) Well, you are saying that preparations were not made in
   anticipation of the visit, but it is said that Japan has announced $5
   billion in new assistance to Afghanistan. How can we not welcome this?

   (Hafezi) There are two separate issues here; one is the international
   community's goodwill toward us, and the other is the question of whether
   or not we have the capacity to sufficiently benefit from the international
   community's goodwill. Over the past nine years, the international
   community has exercised very favorable policies and been very generous
   toward Afghanistan. The international community has given over $51 billion
   in assistance to Afghanistan over the past nine years. Now the question is
   how we should channel the international community's assistance. Japan is
   among the countries with the highest amount of assistance to Afghanist an.
   In the past, they were interested in building schools, but it seems that
   now they are also interested in the energy sector and road building. I
   must say that what has happened over the past nine years in terms of
   development in Afghanistan has been unprecedented in the country's
   history. I do not even agree with the use of the term reconstruction with
   respect to Afghanistan, because we did not have much that we could
   reconstruct in the past. We started from below zero level. Nevertheless,
   we have made progress over the past many years and this progress is
   because of the fact that the Afghans are talented and adaptable.

   (Announcer) The president's visit to Japan is said to be of historic
   significance. Moreover, it is said that the Afghan delegation also
   elaborated about the Afghan Government's programs during the visit. Can
   you please tell us what it all means? Manalay

   (Manalay) The president's visit to Japan and to the United States had many
   importan t aspects. An important aspect of the president's visit to the
   United States was its political significance. The president was very well
   received in the United States. This shows that Afghanistan has found its
   place at an international level now and foreign countries are respecting
   Afghanistan, no matter what the domestic political wrangling might be in
   the country. As for the economic significance of the president's visit to
   Japan, the latter has broadened the area of its assistance to Afghanistan.
   In the past, Japan was interested in school building in Afghanistan. As a
   result of the president's visit, Japan has committed to help Afghanistan
   in road building. As we know, Afghanistan is a landlocked country and the
   ring road that connects Afghanistan to the neighboring countries is very
   important for the country's economic self-sufficiency. During his visit to
   Japan, the president also mentioned that Afghanistan would give investment
   priority to Japan as a leading d onor country to Afghanistan. Although, as
   Mr Hafezi said, the details of this policy are not clear yet, in general
   the policy gives investment priority to countries that are providing
   assistance to Afghanistan. This means that now we select our own
   customers, rather than letting our economic policies be dictated by
   foreign power rivalries. Such policies will help Afghanistan move toward
   economic self-sufficiency in the future.

   (Announcer) As Mr Hafezi said, the available capacities in Afghanistan
   have not been thoroughly studied in the past. On the other hand, during
   the president's visit, Japan announced $5 billion of assistance to
   Afghanistan over the course o f the next five years. As a member of the
   finance commission of the lower house of parliament, how do you see the
   prospects of such a significant assistance being spent in Afghanistan?
   Will there be any improvement in how this assistance is spent in the
   country? Nili

   (Nili) (passage omitted on ope ning pleasantries)

   Over the past many years, Afghanistan has fortunately enjoyed an
   unprecedented status at an international level. If we look at the history
   of Afghanistan, the country has never received so much international
   assistance that it has in the past nine years. Afghanistan has been so
   fortunate in the past many years that even countries with acrimonious
   relations between themselves tend to have common views on Afghanistan. We
   should be grateful to the international community for their assistance to
   Afghanistan. Afghanistan's development budget is entirely dependent on
   foreign assistance. Even our normal budget is also dependent on foreign
   assistance; over 40% of the government's normal budget comes from the
   international assistance. Unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that we
   have not been able to provide even for our normal budget. However, the
   important point is as to how best the international assistance is used in
   the country. Unfortunately, we have not been able to make the best use of
   the international assistance available to us. The parliament discusses and
   approves the normal and development budgets every year. Unfortunately, the
   development budget recently sent for parliamentary approval shows a
   reduction in development expenditure. Similarly, the government has not
   been able to spend its normal budget fully. On average, I do not think
   that the government was able to spend more than 45% of its normal budget
   last year. These facts and figures indicate that the government does not
   have the capacity to make best use of the international assistance
   available to Afghanistan.

   Ironically, however, significant funds are allocated for capacity building
   every year. The recent budget also had an allocation for capacity
   building, but the lawmakers had a lot of reservations saying that,
   although significant funds have been sought and allocated toward capacity
   building over the past many years, there was lit tle evidence that the
   government has improved its capacity. The reduction in the development
   budget and the inability of the government to spend its normal budget in
   full point to low capacity in the government. Unfortunately, the
   international community has also reduced its development assistance to
   Afghanistan. The reduction of the international community's development
   assistance to Afghanistan serves as a warning bell to us that we should
   enhance our capacity. I hope that we will be able to enhance our
   capacities and make best use of the international assistance available to
   us.

   (Announcer) Various foreign countries have given certain commitments to
   Afghanistan, but how can Afghanistan enhance its capacities?

   (Nili) Well, part of the problem might be the lack of qualified human
   resources. Here, I am not saying that there are no professionally
   qualified personnel at the ministries. There are professionally qualified
   officials in various ministries, but there are questions about their
   commitment to Afghanistan. Oftentimes, ministers who have lost their
   ministerial positions have tended to return to the foreign countries from
   where they had come. Hence, there is a lack of commitment to the interests
   of Afghanistan. The second problem is that the timing of the budget
   approval process in the parliament is not helpful. The budget comes to
   parliament during the spring, but I think it would be better if the budget
   came to the parliament a few months before spring in early winter. This
   would allow the parliament enough time to debate the budget without taking
   up the spring, which is important for the government's activity. The third
   problem is that the procurement laws are too cumbersome. I think the p
   rocurement laws should be streamlined in order to expedite the process.

   (Announcer) During the president's visit to Japan, the Japanese
   authorities committed to continue their assistance to Afghanistan. They
   have also made a commitment to increase the ratio of their assistance
   channeled through the Afghan Government even beyond what was agreed in the
   Paris Conference previously. Do you think that such foreign visits will
   continue to bring about more positive results?

   (Hafezi) Certainly, over time we have gained more experience, enhanced our
   capacities, and reduced our shortcomings. However, we would have liked to
   do much more than we have to date. Japan is the second-largest economy in
   the world. Experience has shown that the Japanese assistance to
   Afghanistan is spent in the most efficient way with the least amount of
   waste and mismanagement. We should be grateful for the Japanese assistance
   to Afghanistan. Japan, the United States, and European Union have been the
   leading donors to Afghanistan for a long time. Now a question is asked as
   to how best the international assistance to Afghanistan can be spent,
   whether through the NGOs, through the government on infrastructural
   development, or a mix of the government and the NGOs as has been the case
   in the past many years.

   The challenge is to ensure that the bulk of the international assistance
   is actually spent on the projects rather than wasted in overhead
   administrative costs and corruption. As Mr Nili mentioned, the procurement
   law is one of the problems. Another problem, as I said earlier, is the
   fact that we always tend to trail behind the events. For example, the last
   budget was approved by the parliament nearly three months past the
   beginning of the financial year. Finally, they compromised in the national
   interests of Afghanistan and passed the budget. In order to avoid a repeat
   of the situation in the future, I suggest that, before the budget is sent
   officially to the parliament, arrangements should be made to make the
   major allocations available to the public through the media so that the
   public can have an input into the process and the parliamentarians will
   deliberate uno fficially about it. As for the official presentation of the
   budget to the parliament, the Ministry of Finance may find it difficult to
   do it in early winter because Afghanistan is an aid-dependent country.
   Without the timely allocation of international assistance to Afghanistan,
   the Finance Ministry may not be able to finalize the budget.

   As far the Afghan leadership's international visits are concerned, I think
   they have been very beneficial. The president's visit to America helped
   quell misunderstandings with the international community. His visits to
   Japan, China, and his participation in the London Conference were all
   useful. Soon there will be another international conference in Kabul. I
   suggest that the Ministry of Finance and the finance commission of the
   lower house of the parliament come up with a comprehensive and attractive
   proposal that encourages further international assistance to Afghanistan.
   The Afghan Constitution provides for a market economy in Afghanistan. The
   market economy needs certain scruples and conditions in order to succeed,
   but we have not been able to meet those conditions and principles in
   Afghanistan to date.

   It is true that Afghanistan's mineral resources are of great importance to
   the country's economy. During his visit, the president said that, as a
   leading donor country to Afghanistan, Japan will be given precedence to
   invest in Afghanistan's mining sector. I would like to urge the president
   and the government to create incentives for the expatriate Afghan private
   sector to invest in the development of the country's economic
   infrastructure. My question is as to what incentives the government is
   willing to offer in order to attract investment from the expa triate
   Afghan community in the development of the country's economic
   infrastructure such as the creation of a national oil industry or the
   creation of a national steel industry. Is the government willing to offer
   investment incentiv es to the Afghan private sector, or will it continue
   with the practice of treating favorably the foreign companies that merely
   produce good proposals and employ good consultants.

   (Announcer) Over the past nine years, there have been many national and
   international conferences on Afghanistan. However, for the first time, the
   forthcoming conference in Kabul will be hosted by the United Nations. Why
   is the United Nations hosting this conference?

   (Hafezi) You may recall that the first international donors conference on
   Afghanistan was held in Tokyo. Recently, Tokyo was once again host to
   President Hamid Karzai. In the past, Afghanistan did not have sufficient
   infrastructure and the facilities to convene conferences within the
   country. However, in the course of the past nine years, the facilities for
   holding international conferences have been developed in Afghanistan. I
   remember that initially the Intercontinental Hotel in Kabul did not even
   have water for wa shing, but now we have a number of hotels including five
   star and four star hotels to host conference participants. Similarly, we
   also have the transport capabilities to hold such events in country. The
   fact that the forthcoming conference is going to be held in Kabul
   indicates that the international community has come round to recognize our
   capacities, which is good for the country. It also indicates that the
   international community is not concerned about security threats and they
   are confident that the conference can be held in safety. Holding the
   conference in Afghanistan has many advantages. Normally, the size of
   Afghan delegations to international conferences on Afghanistan held
   outside the country had to be relatively small, often not exceeding 60
   participants. In fact, it would be difficult to transport more than 60
   people to conferences outside the country. The forthcoming conference in
   Kabul does not suffer from such constraints. The Afghan participants to t
   he conference can be more numerous. Similarly, while in Kabul the
   international participants to the conference would find it very easy to
   get in touch with Afghan officials in the government.

   (Announcer) As media adviser to the Ministry of Finance, what can you tell
   us about preparations for the Kabul conference?

   (Manalay) The forthcoming Kabul conference is different from the other
   international conferences on Afghanistan over the past nine years. First,
   the Kabul conference has been called by Afghans. Second, the Afghans do
   not intend to call for international assistance in the Kabul conference.
   In the previous international conferences, foreign donors made financial
   commitments toward the reconstruction of Afghanistan. In the Kabul
   conference, the Afghans will give a commitment to the international
   community that we will spend the international assistance efficiently.

   Similarly, the Afghan Government will show in the Kabul conference that it
   has brought certain changes in its approach to economic management. In the
   past, the reconstruction activities were based on projects where projects
   were identified and implemented in a haphazard way without much certainty
   about their success or failure. Now the reconstruction process is based on
   programs, meaning that the projects are interrelated. For example, a water
   management project in a village will also entail energy generation,
   agriculture, environmental considerations, road and infrastructure
   building projects. This is a new development in Afghanistan, for which the
   Afghan Government has rearranged its organizational structure.

   In accordance with the new arrangement, the entire government apparatus
   has been divided into five circles (sections). Government ministries are
   part of the circles in accordance with their fields of activity. In the
   economic field we have three circles, the first one being the
   reconstruction and development of economic infrastructu re. This circle
   includes the Ministry of Mines, Ministry of Commerce and Industries,
   Ministry of Communications, Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and
   Development, and the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Livestock.
   The second circle within the economic field pertains to the reconstruction
   and development of rural agriculture. This circle includes the Ministry of
   Agriculture, Irrigation, and Livestock, the Ministry of Energy and Water,
   the Department of Local Governance, and the Ministry of Rural
   Rehabilitation and Development. The third circle in the economic field
   pertains to the development of human resources in the country, which
   includes the Ministry of Education, Ministry of Higher Education, Ministry
   of Women's Affairs, and the Ministry of Work and Social Affairs. Hence, we
   take a comprehensive look at the country's economy and the international
   assistance. Where we have a development proposal, it will include all
   aspects of development, such as agricultu re, water management, rural
   rehabilitation and development, and roads, in a given area. Such an
   approach will make us more effective.

   As for the question of why we are doing things in this way now and not
   before, I must say that previously we did not have enough capacity to
   undertake and implement such comprehensive programs. Fortunately, we have
   developed our capacities over the past nine years, and now we are able to
   undertake such programs. The second reason as to why we were not able to
   implement comprehensive programs was that in the past we were not thinking
   about our own economy ourselves; rather, we used to implement
   prescriptions given to us by others. Now, we have acquired the capacity to
   put forth our own prescriptions and make the international community
   accept them.

   (Announcer) On what basis you are saying that we have acquired such
   capacity now?

   (Manalay) Well, a lot of our cadres have learned through experience over
   the past nine years . The standard of our universities has risen
   considerably compared to four or five years ago. Many other Afghan cadres
   have been trained in foreign countries. Overall, Afghanistan's capacity
   has risen in the course of the past many years. The other pleasant news is
   that, in accordance with a recent assessment by the World Bank, over 80%
   of the international assistance channeled through the Afghan Government is
   actually spent in Afghanistan, whereas the ratio of funds spent in
   Afghanistan by other organizations is only about 20% of the total funds
   that they receive from the international donors. This is also proof that
   the Afghan Government has acquired the capacity to manage international
   assistance more efficiently. The government's capacity might not be at its
   peak and there is still room for more improvement, but there is no doubt
   that the government has enhanced its capacities. This means that we have
   the capacity to take a fresh look at the country's economic dev elopment.

   (Announcer) Are we fully prepared for the Kabul Conference?

   (Manalay) We have made preparations for the Kabul Conference in the areas
   of economic development and the management of international assistance.
   Our preparations are over 80% complete. At present, several ministers,
   deputy ministers, and senior government officials are in Herat
   deliberating about the Kabul Conference. Similarly, we have made a lot of
   progress in the areas of security and governance. The local governance
   policy has been prepared, and it is a very comprehensive and beautiful
   policy. We might have had problems and missed some opportunities in the
   past, but most of the opportunities have been used rather diligently.
   However, we have gained experience from the past which is helping us
   perform better now.

   (Announcer) Mr Manalay said that the government is well-prepared to hold
   the Kabul conference on 20 July, but the fact is that over the past nine
   years the internati onal donor community has provided o ver $62 billion
   toward Afghanistan's reconstruction, of which only about 20% has been
   channeled through the government and the rest has been spent through other
   organizations. Are there any prospects that the Kabul Conference will
   remedy the situation in accordance with the wishes of the people of
   Afghanistan?

   (Nili) I think it is very important that an international conference is
   going to be held in Afghanistan for the first time. It is important to the
   international community. Having provided enormous financial assistance and
   deployed troops to Afghanistan, the international community expects to
   have the right answers for their people. Certainly, the Kabul Conference
   is very important to the international community because it proves that
   Afghanistan has come so far through the past nine years that it is capable
   of convening such an international conference inside the country.
   Similarly, the Kabul Conference is important to th e United Nations and
   also to Afghanistan because it will have a positive psychological impact
   on the people of Afghanistan by virtue of the fact that representatives of
   the international community demonstrate their confidence to come to
   Afghanistan and consult with government officials in the country. These
   are some of the factors that make the Kabul Conference very important and
   we all should acknowledge the importance of holding the conference in
   Kabul.

   However, on another note, there is a huge gap between what is announced in
   terms of international financial commitment to Afghanistan and what
   actually takes place in the country. The situation with the low percentage
   of international financial assistance being channeled through the Afghan
   Government is unacceptable. One of the main problems that we often
   encounter in the parliament with respect to the budget is that most of the
   budget is beyond the control of the Afghan Government. We are
   representatives of the people and the public have certain expectations of
   us to ensure that their problems are addressed in the budget. However, as
   soon as we try to introduce any changes to the budget, we are told that
   the relevant parts of the budget are beyond the control of the government
   and they cannot be changed. We do appreciate the government's compulsion
   in this respect, but the point here is that there is a huge gap between
   what the international community says and what changes and developments
   really take place in Afghanistan. At any rate, what is important here is
   that the government makes the necessary preparations to make sure that
   both the government and the people benefit from this opportunity.

   (Announcer) The fact is that the government did make the necessary
   preparations and made its presentations in previous international
   conferences. However, there are still problems and challenges. Are there
   any chances that Kabul Conference will improve the coordination?

   ( Nili) I think every international conference has its positive points.
   The fact that the forthcoming conference is going to be held in Kabul is a
   positive point in itself.

   (Announcer) Should we suffice with the mere fact that the conference is
   going to be held in Kabul?

   (Nili) No, we should aim to achieve results from the conference. As Mr
   Manalay said, the government wants to show its accountability to the
   international community.

   (Announcer) Look, there have been previous conferences as well, such as
   the Paris Conference, London Conference, Tokyo Conference, and so on.
   However, the people expect more than this. (Words indistinct), but how do
   you assess this?

   (Nili) As I mentioned, there is a huge gap between what is said in terms
   of international assistance to Afghanistan and what actually takes place
   in terms of change and development in the country. The situation has
   reached the point where members of the international community themselves
   are criticizing it and questioning the soundness of effectively returning
   over 70% of the international assistance to donor countries. This has
   disappointed our peop le and the government. The Afghan Government and the
   parliament have a responsibility to make sure that the international
   assistance is spent in the most efficient way in the country.

   (Announcer) Does that meaning that there should be a new framework?

   (Nili) Yes, but I think unfortunately we do not have such a new framework.
   Ask me why and I will tell you that, for example, we are the
   representatives of the people of Afghanistan in the parliament. The
   parliament directly represents the people of Afghanistan. I am a member of
   the parliament's economic and financial commission, but we have not been
   consulted about the details of the Kabul Conference, nor have we received
   any drafts of the proposals that the government is going to present in the
   Kabul Conference.

   (Announcer) Does that mea n that none of the proposals that Mr Manalay
   mentioned earlier have been sent to the parliament?

   (Nili) That is true. None of these proposals have been sent to us, nor did
   the government consult with us about the London Conference earlier. After
   all, the parliament represents the people, and is part of the state as a
   whole. It wants to facilitate public participation in such initiatives.
   Unfortunately, however, the government still suffers from this weakness of
   avoiding consultations with the parliament for reasons that elude my
   understanding.

   (Announcer) Two issues might be pertinent to the Kabul Conference; first,
   the capacity to spend international assistance efficiently, and second,
   the issue of corruption, which is always present in discussions. How can
   the Kabul Conference create public confidence?

   (passages indistinct to end of program)

   (Description of Source: Kabul National TV Afghanistan in Dari and Pashto
   -- State-run television)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   73) Back to Top
   JI Chief Says Pakistan Signed Afghan Transit Trade Treaty Under US
   Pressure
   Recorder report: Water dispute emerged due to Indian water aggression:
   Jamaat-e-Islami - Business Recorder Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 08:33:19 GMT
   LAHORE (July 29 2010): Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan Chief Syed Munawar Hassan
   claimed here on Wednesday that water dispute between the provinces of
   Pakistan has emerged due to Indian water aggression against Pakistan.
   India has constructed 62 dams over rivers violating the international
   agreements but unfortunately Pakistani foreign Minister and Indus Water
   Commissioner were advocating India instead of raising this issue at
   international level in favour of Pakistan, alleged Munawar while talking
   to media after attending an 'All Pakistan Growers Convention' arranged by
   the Kisan Board Pakistan (KBP) at Mansoora. Regarding Pak-Afghan Transit
   Trade agreement, he said it was signed under US pressure and Hillary
   Clinton visited Pakistan to get this deal struck. He was of the view that
   this should be debated in the parliament. The JI Chief also said that
   Pakistan should not go for composite dialogue under US pressure. He said
   Kashmir and water were the real issues and this should be included in the
   agenda of talks. Regarding target killing in Karachi, he termed it a fight
   between land mafia and Qabza group. He said both the parties present in
   the government were holding responsible each other for it. He said that
   MQM had occupied various flats and lands to set up its party offices. He
   demanded invest igation in to May 12 incident, to ensure peace in Karachi.
   Munawar also alleged that Maulana Fazal ur Rehman had assured President
   Asif Ali Zardari that he would not let MMA revived, which had exposed its
   real face. Earlier addressing the convention, the JI Chief called for
   uniting all segments of the society including growers and workers to
   launch an organised movement for changing the existing system, which
   according to him only promotes corruption and injustice. 'Pakistan has all
   the resources and most hard working human resource in the world but the
   existing system is not delivering properly as it only promotes the
   usurpers and looters,' Munawar said. He said that existing system only
   make rich people richer and add to the miseries of the poor. He said a few
   thousand people were enjoying all the available resources of the country
   and to change the situation, all segments of the society have to support
   those parties and leadership, which wanted to change the existing syst em.
   KBP President Sardar Zafar Hussein speaking on this occasion said that
   this gathering of farmers demand that sugar millers should be asked to
   issue cheques to the sugarcane growers in future instead of CPR, so in
   case of non-payment farmers could adopt some legal course of action. He
   also urged the government to take steps for ensuring water supply to the
   farmers in Cholistan and other areas of the province. He said that
   government should also ensure printing of price on the bags of fertilisers
   so as the growers could know the real price and avoid over-charging.

   (Description of Source: Karachi Business Recorder Online in English --
   Website of a leading business daily. The group also owns Aaj News TV; URL:
   http://www.brecorder.com/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   74) Back to Top
   US Plan of Reconstruction Opportunity Zones in FATA Full of Flaws
   Report by Hamid Waleed: Absence of facilities makes proposed ROZs
   imperfect - Business Recorder Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 08:33:23 GMT
   LAHORE (July 29 2010): Exclusion of critical products from this duty-free
   eligibility, high cost and long shipment hours to US market and absence of
   higher levels of infrastructure and security are making proposed
   Reconstruction Opportunity Zones (ROZs) in Federally Administered Tribal
   Areas (FATA) full of flaws. Expressing deep concerns over these flaws,
   textile circles feared that these tangible flaws would fail the US plans
   to help build Pakistan's domestic industry, create employment
   opportunities, and provide sustainable development. Further, it would also
   demonstra te to Pakistanis that the US is not serious about its long-term
   engagement with Pakistan and the region, added these circles. It may be
   noted that the current legislation pending before Congress seeks to create
   trade preference zones in Pakistan's conflict ridden and destitute
   Federally Administrated Tribal Areas (FATA) to ensure jobs and long-term
   prosperity in a region widely regarded as an al Qa`ida safe haven. It is a
   noble idea, but is flawed for three critical reasons. Textile circles
   pointed out that despite that fact that the ROZs relating bill aims to
   spur textile and apparel production in FATA, it excludes critical products
   from this duty-free eligibility, namely cotton knit tops and cotton
   trousers. These products, they said, make up 25 percent of the total value
   of US imports from Pakistan. Exclusion of these products is an obvious
   disincentive for new investment in apparel in Pakistan's border regions,
   they added. Secondly, they said, a quick turnaround time on orders and not
   lower cost enables Pakistan to compete against regional competitors like
   China and India in the US market. A geographically isolated area like FATA
   with long distance from ports and the cotton producing regions of Pakistan
   with weak transportation links would cost more and take longer to reach
   the US market, eliminating Pakistan's comparative advantage. Also, added
   textile sources, prospects for a successful ROZ are limited given that the
   FATA region remains embroiled in conflict and any further expenditure in
   the region would strain an already fragile government budget. Meanwhile,
   the textile circles are also advocating that no benefit can be accrued
   unless a reduction to the US tariff on textile exports from ROZs is put in
   place. According to these circles, abolition of current 8.1 percent
   average tariff on towels, sheets, comforters and curtains is a must to
   benefit from proposed ROZs.

   (Description of Source: Karachi Business Recorder Online in Engli sh --
   Website of a leading business daily. The group also owns Aaj News TV; URL:
   http://www.brecorder.com/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   75) Back to Top
   ROK Column Says 'Real Aftermath of Ch'o'nan Incident Has Only Just Begun'
   "Viewpoint" column by Oh Young-hwan, editor of foreign and security
   affairs at the JoongAng Ilbo: "Tough Diplomacy or Regime Change?" -
   JoongAng Daily Online
   Friday July 30, 2010 01:05:55 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul JoongAng Daily Online in English -- Website
   of English-language daily which provides English-language summaries and
   full-tex ts of items published by the major center-right daily JoongAng
   Ilbo, as well as unique reportage; distributed as an insert to the Seoul
   edition of the International Herald Tribune; URL:
   http://joongangdaily.joins.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   76) Back to Top
   Russias Energy Cooperation With Iran Comes at 'Wrong Time'
   Commentary by Vladimir Radyuhin: The Russian-Iranian Road Map - The
   Hindu Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 04:38:48 GMT
   The mixed signals on Iran that Russia has been sending in recent days have
   puzzled many western analysts. A little over a month after it went along
   wit h the United States in supporting tougher sanctions on Iran, Moscow
   signed a framework pact on wide-ranging cooperation with Tehran in
   hydrocarbons and announced a similar plan for nuclear energy projects.A
   road map for long-term cooperation in oil, gas and petrochemicals that
   Russia and Iran signed last week calls for interaction and partnership in
   transportation, swaps and marketing of natural gas, as well as sales of
   petroleum products and petrochemicals, according to the Russian Energy
   Ministry. Russia will help Iran set up a $100 million LNG plant to supply
   the natural gas to 8,000 settlements in remote regions of Iran. The two
   sides agreed to negotiate concrete projects in the energy field before the
   end of the year. They will also look into setting up a joint bank to
   finance projects in hydrocarbons and to evolve mechanisms to use the
   respective national currencies in bilateral deals.In another zigzag move,
   Russia apparently helped set up and strongly backed a Turkey- Brazil
   brokered deal with Iran in mid-May to swap Iranian low-enriched uranium
   for higher enriched fuel for use in medical reactors. A little later,
   however, Moscow threw its weight behind the Washington-championed United
   Nations sanctions.Russia's Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko said last week
   that he saw "practically no limits" to cooperation with Iran in the energy
   field. "No sanctions will hinder our cooperation in hydrocarbons. It does
   not contradict either the U.N. Security Council sanctions or international
   law," he said after signing the road map document on Wednesday with
   Iranian Oil Minister Masoud Mir-Kazemi. He also said the two sides had
   agreed to draft road maps for cooperation in the fields of nuclear energy
   and conventional electricity generation as well. Russian companies were
   "ready to supply oil products to Iran without any doubt," provided the
   commercial terms were attractive.The sanctions that were voted on on June
   9 do not b an the kind of projects Russia and Iran agreed to launch under
   the road map, but they fly in the face of additional unilateral penalties
   the U.S. and the European Union slapped on Iran. U.S. laws punish any
   company that exports refined oil products to Iran.Russian officials have
   stated several times that they disapproved of the unilateral sanctions,
   but two weeks ago Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev did not rule out
   further U.N. sanctions if a CIA report claiming that Iran may have enough
   fuel for two nuclear weapons proved correct. Mr. Medvedev said he was
   alarmed by the report.Two weeks ago, Mr. Medvedev warned for the first
   time that Iran was moving closer to acquiring the "potential to build
   nuclear weapons." The same week, he urged Iran to explain the "military
   components" of its nuclear programme. On the same day, a top Russian
   defence industry official, however, said a contract to supply S-300 air
   defence missiles to Iran, which the U.S. and Isra el vehemently objected
   to, had not been cancelled even though Moscow conceded that the deal fell
   under the sanctions regime.U.S. Defence Secretary Robert Gates termed
   Russia's policy on Iran "schizophrenic" because Moscow viewed Tehran as a
   security threat and, at the same time, pursued commercial deals with the
   country. "The Kremlin appears once again to be playing both sides;"
   "Moscow is trying to sit on two chairs;" "Russia and China go back and
   forth between Iran and the West" -- these are some of the typical comments
   in the western media. The West's frustration seems to come from the
   expectation that after it signed on to new sanctions against Iran, Russia
   would toe the U.S. line as part of the ongoing resetting process in
   U.S.-Russian ties.Russia 's vote for the sanctions last month was, in
   part, an act of balancing its improved relations with the U.S. against its
   interest of closer ties with Tehran. A Russian veto would have mad e
   President Barack Obama extremely vulnerable to opposition attacks in
   Congress for hitting the "reset" button with Moscow. Russia also felt the
   new censure of Iran could serve a useful purpose in prodding Tehran to
   open up more of its nuclear programme.Moscow has repeatedly said it is in
   a very different position vis-a-vis Iran, compared with the U.S. "Let's
   face the truth: the United States has no cooperation with Iran and has
   nothing to lose. Iran is not your partner," Mr. Medvedev said in an
   interview to U.S. journalists last month.Iran is an important partner of
   Russia on security issues in Afghanistan, Central Asia, the Caucasus and
   the Caspian. Russia is Iran's main source for arms and technology. In the
   past 15 years, Russia has supplied Iran with combat aircraft, helicopters,
   diesel submarines, tanks and air defence systems. The Bushehr nuclear
   plant in Russia that is preparing to start up later this year may be the
   first of a number of nuclear p ower projects that Iran plans to build with
   Russian help.The two countries, which hold about 20 per cent of the global
   oil reserves and 42 per cent of natural gas between them, have been
   steadily expanding cooperation in the energy field. They were the
   principal movers behind the establishment two years ago of the 11-member
   Gas Exporting Countries Forum, dubbed the "Gas OPEC." Russia's natural gas
   monopoly, Gazprom, has offered technical support and indicated its
   willingness to help finance a planned gas pipeline from Iran to Pakistan
   and India (IPI).Russia's biggest private oil major LukOil pulled out from
   the Anaran project in Iran and halted gasoline deliveries to that country
   in April in order to safeguard its investments in the U.S. However,
   Russia's state-owned companies which have no business going in the U.S.
   have not severed ties with Iran. Late last year, Gazpromneft, an oil
   subsidiary of Gazprom, signed an agreement with the National Iranian Oil
   Company (NIOC) to jointly develop two oilfields in Iran. Gazprom also has
   an agreement with the NIOC to develop the South Pars gas field and build
   an oil refinery in Iran.That said, the Russian-Iranian energy road map has
   seemingly come at the wrong time as it could conceivably jeopardise the
   Kremlin's plans to extend the "reset" in relations with the U.S. to the
   sphere of high technologies. In a keynote speech to Russian ambassadors
   earlier this month, Mr. Medvedev called for building "modernisation
   alliances" with Europe and the U.S. to facilitate the economic
   modernisation of Russia.Moscow, however, appears confident that its pledge
   of energy cooperation with Iran would not derail the new partnership with
   the West. It is of course in Washington's interests for Moscow to maintain
   ties with Iran as it gives a lever of influence on Teheran and provides a
   back channel for communication with its leadership. But the massive
   projects outlined in the Russian-Iranian r oad map go far beyond the
   tactical needs of keeping Tehran engaged.The Kremlin appears to have taken
   quite seriously Mr. Obama's election promise of solving the Iranian
   problem through a bold outreach to Tehran. The past 18 months of intensive
   contacts with Mr. Obama have also convinced Mr. Medvedev that the new U.S.
   President may be more open to Russia's arguments on Iran than his
   predecessor was. "He is a thinker, he thinks when he speaks," and "tries
   to listen to his partner," Mr. Medvedev famously said in an interview this
   year.The Russian President has been urging his American counterpart to
   adopt a new approach to Iran by creating "a system of incentives" for Iran
   to give up its nuclear ambitions. Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov
   said in an interview this year that any settlement of the Iranian nuclear
   problem must include full-fledged security guarantees to Iran and its
   broad involvement in all region a l issues. "The previous U.S.
   administration was reluctant to give such promises to Iran... but I think
   now a solution will be found," Mr. Lavrov told the Echo of Moscow radio
   station in February.At the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty review
   conference in May, the five permanent U.N. Security Council members issued
   a statement in support of making the Middle East a nuclear weapons-free
   zone, which would ultimately force Israel to scrap its atomic arms. This
   could be a signal that the Obama administration is taking a broader view
   of the problem of Iran's nuclear programme.However, the unilateral U.S.
   sanctions on Iran that go far beyond the U.N. penalties do not suggest any
   new thinking in the White House. Unless of course it is a manoeuvre to
   silence Mr. Obama's critics at home and jockey for position before
   launching a new dialogue with Iran.If the Russian leadership's calculus is
   correct, it will be a win-win situation for Moscow. If, however, it is
   wrong about Mr. Obama, Russia will face a painful choice between
   backtracking on its promises to Iran -- for a third time after repeatedly
   postponing the start-up of the Bushehr nuclear plant and freezing the
   S-300 contract -- and risking its "reset" with the U.S.

   (Description of Source: Chennai The Hindu Online in English -- Website of
   the most influential English daily of southern India. Strong focus on
   South Indian issues. It has abandoned its neutral editorial and reportage
   policy in the recent few years after its editor, N Ram, a Left party
   member, fell out with the Bharatiya Janata Party-led government and has
   become anti-BJP, pro-Left, and anti-US with perceptible bias in favor of
   China in its write-ups. Gives good coverage to Left parties and has
   reputation of publishing well-researched editorials and commentaries; URL:
   www.hindu.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inqu iries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   77) Back to Top
   Yeni Ozgur Politika Headlines17 July 2010
   The following is a list of news headlines from the Yeni Ozgur Politika
   website on 17 July; to request additional processing, please contact OSC
   at (800) 205-8615, (202) 338-6735, fax (703) 613-5735, or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov - Yeni Ozgur Politika Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 01:43:35 GMT
   KCK (Assembly of Communities of Kurdistan): You Will Not Be Able to
   Extract Yourself from This! - The KCK stated that with the exposure of the
   fake overture policy it has now become evident that the AKP (Justice and
   Development Party) and Turkish state have decided on a unilateral war and
   said: "They are reinstating the Ciller era policies."

   BDP (Peace an d Democracy Party): "This Is What Was Expected of You" - We
   refer you first to the people, then to God. You are going to have to
   explain yourself for this, both in this world and in the next."

   Boycott Campaign From BDP - Today, the BDP, which has decided to boycott
   the referendum on the constitutional change package, is launching a major
   campaign. Saying "we want a democratic constitution and will will not be
   going to the polls," the BDP will be holding central rallies in the cities
   of Amed (Diyarbakir), Wan (Van), Istanbul, Izmir and Adana.

   Assassination Announcement From HPG (People`s Defense Forces) - The HPG
   has claimed responsibility for the assassination of Gendarmarie Specialist
   Sergeant Yasin Ak that took place in Gever (Yuksekova). Eight soldiers
   were also killed in the guerilla attack on a van that was transporting
   soldiers in Eleziz (Elezig).

   Hotel Fire: 40 Deaths - 40 people died and more than 20 people were
   injured in a fire that broke out during the night in a hotel in
   Al-Sulaymaniyah in South Kurdistan two days ago.

   400 NGOs Will Say "Stop the War" - As non-governmental organizations
   continue to issue statements regarding the surge in armed confrontations
   and military operations, it has now been learned that all of the NGOs of
   the region are going to gather and make a plea for peace.

   PUK (Patriotic Union of Kurdistan) Member Abdullah: "This is Hostility" -
   Saying that the bombing carried out by the Turkish Armed Forces on the
   Federal Kurdistan Region had caused damages to the civilian population,
   author Arez Abdullah, a Politbureau member of the PUK, said, `We consider
   Turkey's attacks to be an act of hostility."

   Musle'man (Muslim) Erdogan- When the Mushriks (Pagans) who opposed the
   Muslim prophet were killed in battle, their killers vented their anger on
   them by cutting off their noses and ears and splitting their bodies open.
   This trad ition was termed Musle. Yesterday the Turkish prime minister
   defended this tradition, drawing the ire of the Kurds.

   Third Death - The father of Ercan Yesilkaya, the soldier from Mus who
   allegedly committed suicide, said his son was killed "because he is a
   Kurd." This is the third suspicious death of a soldier originating from
   Hosgeldi Village.

   Gate to Conscience - In his film Berf (Snow),director Erol Mintas relates
   the proud silence of a mother who was not allowed to retrieve the body of
   her son, who was killed as a guerrilla.

   Pilgrimage to Ehmede Xani - The importance of Ehmede Xani as a moral value
   for Kurds is making itself felt more each day. Rather important studies
   have been carried out on this moral value and will continue to be carried
   out in the future.

   Book Yildizlarin Yolculari (Passengers of the Stars) - Yildizlarin
   Yolculari, the first volume of a three-part novel written by Nurettin
   Aslan has now been published. While th e book tells the story of Ibrahim
   Kaypakkaya, slices of the lives of such important youthful leaders of the
   '68 generation as Mahir Cayan, Deniz Gezmis, and Sinan Cemgil are also
   touched upon and their influence on the people described.

   Documentary on Sacred Sites Screened - Sacred sites that were submerged
   under the waters of the Seyrantepe and Uzuncayir dams in Dersim (Tunceli)
   are the subjects of a documentary film entitled Gole Chetu-Hizir Mekani
   (Chetu Lake- Place of Hizir).

   Germany Says "Yes" to UNCRC - Germany has now approved the articles of the
   Convention on the Rights of the Child on which it had originally cited
   reservations. According to the new articles, the upper age limit for
   accepting refugees as children has been raised from 16 to 18 years.
   According to this, all refugees under the age of 18 are officially
   recognized as children.

   Torture, Rape, and Death! - A woman known as NB, who was arrested in Iran
   on allegations of being a member of the PJAK (Free Life Party of
   Kurdistan), described her fear-filled days in prison.

   Breath With Artificial Lungs - American researchers have succeeded in
   getting mice to breathe for six hours with "simple" artificial lungs.

   Ticks Kills 20 in Seven Months - Saying that the Department of Health,
   which has not yet produced a vaccine, cannot halt the deaths caused by
   ticks, SES (Union of Health Workers) Chairperson Bedriye Yorgun said that
   the policies guiding health services should prioritize preventive health
   care.

   Oil Leak Stopped Temporarily - The latest efforts undertaken by BP have
   succeeded in capping the seafloor oil well that caused such a huge
   environmental disaster. Whether or not the system works will become clear
   after a 48-hour testing period.

   Hundred-Year-Old Grandmother Searches for Her Family`s Bones - The only
   wish of Hanim Dogru, who for 72 years has been bearing the pain of
   suffering in her heart, is that hist ory demand answers to the massacre
   carried out on the Kurds, and that the remains of her family be located.

   Germany Blocks EU Refugee Law - Some EU countries are acting to block the
   EU Commission's plans to harmonize the laws governing refugees. Germany
   wants to preserve its own policies on refugee matters.

   Will Israel Relinquish Control to HAMAS? - Israeli Foreign Minister
   Avigdor Liebermann said that control over the Gaza Strip may be
   transferred to HAMAS.

   War Criminal Suspect To Be Released - The first session heard in Holland's
   International Criminal Court of The Hague proved unsuccessful. The court
   decided to release Congo militia leader Thomas Lubanga, who is being tried
   for war crimes, while he awaits trial.

   Village Guards in Action in Afghanistan - Afghanistan President Hamid
   Karzai has bowed to the pressures being brought to bear by the US and is
   permitting a village guard system to be established to oppose the Taliban.
   This development i s stirring the Afghani peoples' bad memories of the
   1980s. Kurdish News:

   Kurds Want New Constitution - According to a public survey regarding the
   referendum carried out among 667 people in Amed, 39.8% of those surveyed
   said 'yes' to the referendum, while 38.1% said 'No.'

   Annihilation Only Objective of Government - Kurdish People's Leader
   Abdullah Ocalan said that even though he had published a three-step peace
   plan, the state and the government have not taken any of those steps thus
   far. The state views the solution to be total destruction, and the
   government is in the midst of preparations for a major operation.

   Erdogan Speaks Only of War Preparations - While in a meeting he held with
   AKP provincial chairmen, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke of the
   necessity of dialogue with opposition parties, he also refused to meet
   with the BDP because they had sent him photographs of the torture of HPG
   members.

   Nisebin (Nusaybin) Women Issue Criminal Complaint against Bakirci - Women
   in Nisebin gathered in front of the Nizebin court house to issue a
   criminal complaint against AKP Rize Mayor Halil Bakirci

   In South Women Commit Suicide - Women in South Kurdistan are often the
   victims of tradition. Five women committed suicide this week.

   Unity of Democratic Forces is Necessary - Saying that those people who
   affirm the constitutional package should not expect their support, BDP
   Co-Chairperson Gultan Kisanak said that the path to a democratic
   constitution will be paved if all democratic forces unite.

   "We Do Everything Possible to Oppose the PKK" - Speaking in Washington,
   Iraqi Foreign Minister Hosyar Zebari said that they have no information
   about the 240-person list of PKK members that Turkey requested from the
   Iraqi and American governments.

   Eight Village Guards Lay Down Arms - Village guards in Sirnex (Sirnak) who
   do not want to participate in operations have laid down their arms. In the
   past two months, 168 village guards in the area have relinquished their
   weapons. Now three days ago eight village guards in Qileban (Uludere) who
   didn't want to go out on operations also laid down their arms.

   Hotel Burns in Al-Sulaymaniyah: 40 Dead -Two nights ago 40 people were
   killed and 21 more were injured in a hotel file in Al-Sulaymaniyah.
   According to information received, two nights ago at 2245 hours local time
   the Soma Hotel caught fire and 40 people lost their lives as a result.

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   78) Back to Top
   Arabic Daily Sees in Cameron's Remarks About Gaza Blockade Change in UK
   Policy
   Editorial: "Cameron and Awakening of Conscience&amp; quot; - Al-Quds al-Arabi
   Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 11:28:58 GMT
   Cameron demanded an immediate end to the blockade of the Gaza Strip and
   the passage of goods and humans in both directions without obstacles. This
   is a new approach by the ruling coalition government in Britain which
   angered Israel and satisfied the HAMAS movement's government which
   controls the Strip. It signifies that a change has occurred in British
   foreign policy dictated primarily by economic interests.

   Britain, whose governments deferred in the past to the dictates of the
   special relationship with the United States, has started to realize how
   wrong it is to continue with this approach, especially after it became
   embroiled in two losing and costly wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. It
   therefore decided to invest its foreign policy in serving its economic
   interests and this explains its openness to rising regio nal and
   international forces like India and Turkey and paying attention to the
   money depository in the Arab Gulf region. It also explains David Cameron's
   present tour that has included these countries. It was not a coincidence
   that Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, was his first
   stage of this tour. It is true that Cameron is looking for greater
   cooperation from Turkey in the blockade imposed by the United States on
   Iran and it is also true that he wants to slow down its rush toward the
   Islamic east at the expense of its relations with Europe. But it is also
   true that Cameron knows very well that Turley, which ranks 16 th in the
   list of the strongest economies in the world, is a new market for Britain
   and a rising great power that is wrong to ignore.

   The Israeli anger is understandable. Britain has always been its strongest
   ally and supporter of all its wars in region. Cameron's veiled
   condemnation of the blockade of the Strip does not mean estr angement or a
   change in these policies but is in any case a step in this direction.

   The Western world has started to run out of patience with Israel and its
   policies and feels it has become an economic, moral, and security burden
   on it and therefore the countdown to get rid of it gradually has started.
   Cameron is totally right when he talks about the Gaza Strip as a large
   prison. We wish he had compared it to the Nazi detention camps and wish
   more if he had condemned the Israeli war on the Strip and the war crimes
   the Israelis committed during it, particularly the use of white
   phosphorus. But the time when Israel carried out war crimes and the
   blockade without being brought to account or facing objections has started
   to recede, or so we believe.

   Cameron's statements reveal an awakening in the Western conscience toward
   a blockade that should not have been imposed or continue for four years
   from which 2 million persons are suffering from the ugliest kinds of s
   uffering as the civilized world stands watching. It might be a real
   awakening that broadens further toward the greater tragedy, namely, the
   tragedy of the Palestinians under the occupation, the continuing
   settlement activity, the racist walls, and the isolation roadblocks.

   (Description of Source: London Al-Quds al-Arabi Online in Arabic --
   Website of London-based independent Arab nationalist daily with strong
   anti-US bias. URL: http://www.alquds.co.uk/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   79) Back to Top
   Russian Narcotics Problem Attributed to U.S. Failure To Curb Afghan Heroin
   Article by Yuriy Trofimov: "A Covering Force Against the Narcotics Threat"
   - Delovoy Vt ornik Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 18:20:03 GMT
   The Director of the RF Federal Service for Control Over the Trafficking of
   Narcotics (FKSN), Viktor Ivanov, recently reported at a session of the
   State Duma that the situation with drug addiction in the country has
   reached a critical level. It affects around 30 million Russians directly
   or indirectly; that is, practically every fifth resident of the country.
   He noted that the narco-business makes enormous money from this human
   calamity, which then circulates in the shadow economy and serves as a
   basis for the financial support of terrorism and organized crime,
   including in the North Caucasus and Central Asia.

   Historically, Russia's population has never experienced a pathological
   draw to narcotics. Therefore, one can claim that the current outbreak of
   drug addiction in the country is specially heated up and provoked from
   outside. Ch arlie Cogan, once the head of CIA operations in Afghanistan,
   admits that back in the 1980s, U.S. special services viewed Afghan
   narcotics as a means to deliver a blow on the USSR, as a unique
   psychotropic weapon of mass destruction.

   With the arrival of the Americans in Afghanistan, the production of
   opiates in that country increased by 44 times, bringing more than $100
   billion of annual income to the international narco-mafia. Hence the
   heroine contagion has spread like cancerous metastasis in Russia through
   Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.

   It is well known that citizens of the Central Asia republics to this day
   enter the Russian Federation without foreign passports, but with so-called
   "internal documents". This permits narcotics couriers to cross the borders
   back and forth dozens of times a year with their lethal goods. They are
   caught, but far from all of them and not always. In addition, the
   extremely simplified procedure for obt aining RF citizenship has been in
   effect for them since the 1990s. As a result, more than half of such
   suitcase traders have Russian passports. The head of the FSKN, Viktor
   Ivanov, said justifiably to the State Duma that we can no longer remain
   hostage to decisions hastily made in the first years after the collapse of
   the USSR -- above all the vague, incoherent administrative-regulatory
   regimes for the state border. To be specific, it is time to stop the flow
   of Afghan narcotics that are freely crossing Central Asia into Russia.

   No country can cope with such a task by itself. Even Iran, which has
   fenced itself off from Afghanistan with 5-meter deep ditches, set up
   scaffolds there every 300 meters, and deployed 60 percent of its Ground
   Troops to guard the border. Moscow would like to act in a more civilized
   manner and certainly through joint efforts. For example, by enlisting the
   military contingents of the United States and NATO located in Afghanistan
   to eliminate pop py plantings. At the 52nd Session of the UN Commission on
   Narcotic Drugs, which took place in the spring of 2010 in Vienna, the
   Russian delegation suggested including the problem of narcotics production
   in Afghanistan in the summary documents. The proposal was blocked by the
   delegates of the United States and a number of European Union countries.

   This can be understood because Afghan heroin has in reality American
   protection. According to the UN report, the largest number of narcotics
   are produced in the three provinces of Afghanistan where American troops
   are stationed.

   The concentration of American troops and the concentration of opium po ppy
   plantations coincide strikingly. Should they wish, the Americans, who have
   the corresponding experience since the times of the Vietnam War, could
   accurately determine the location of the opium plantations from satellites
   and then apply herbicides to these areas from unmanned aerial vehicles,
   and solve the problem thoroug hly and finally in a short period of time.

   Such a possibility exists, but there is no desire to end the
   super-profitable narco-business that also has a definite political
   orientation.

   Russian special services -- State Narcotics-Trafficking Control, the FSB
   (Federal Security Service), and the MVD (Ministry of Internal Affairs) --
   have more than once provided their American colleagues and official Afghan
   authorities with accurate intelligence on Afghan laboratories where
   narcotics are manufactured, on large heroin storage buildings, and on the
   main traffic routes of narco-caravans. There has been no reaction to this.

   The American military contingent basically counters trafficking in opiates
   in the country's south, where it is impossible to set up large-scale
   narcotics production because of constant military operations. However in
   the north, where a minimum of 3,000 tons of ready heroin is lying in
   storage caches alone, the Americans have built bridges and roads that
   connect Afghanistan with Tajikistan and beyond and through Uzbekistan,
   Kyrgyzstan, and Azerbaijan, and with Russia.

   One should not count on any serious obstacles to the narcotics contagion
   on this route. In Kyrgyzstan, the Narcotics Control Agency was eliminated
   in the fall of 2009, although the republic long ago had been turned into a
   gigantic laundry for laundering criminal finances from the entire world,
   including the money of the narco-barons. The Kazakh government does not
   keep a complete record of foreign citizens or persons without citizenship
   who cross the border with the Russian Federation. Transport from the Asian
   countries is not subject to inspection there. The enormous length of the
   Russian-Kazakh border -- 7,600 km -- and its weak control infrastructure
   allow Afghan narcotics to move across it into Russia practically without
   obstacles. Can one hope for a change for the better after Kazakhstan
   joined the Customs Union on 1 July of this year? Th e border has, in fact,
   been finally opened!

   It seems that Russia will have to count mainly on its own resources in the
   struggle to save its population from the narcotics threat. In June 2010,
   RF President Dmitriy Medvedev approved the Strategy of the State Narcotics
   Policy of the Russian Federation Through 2020. This is the first document
   of such a level in the newest Russian history to create a reliable legal
   foundation for countering the narcotics threat.

   * * * INCIDENTALLY A Russian diplomat became the head of the UN's Office
   on Drugs and Crime (UNODC)

   The new head of the UN's Office on Drugs and Crime has experience on the
   highest level and is very well-informed about the situation in the world
   and the problems facing UN subunits. Such is the evaluation that UN
   Secretary General Ban Ki-moon gave to Russian diplomat Yuriy Fedotov, who
   was appointed to this post.

   The UN Office on Drugs and Crime was created in 1997. It is now the
   leading int ernational agency in the field of narcotics control and crime
   prevention. And that it should be headed by a Russian representative is in
   the opinion of many observers only natural. For in recent times Russia has
   become the unconditional leader in forming a broad, international
   coalition against the narcotics threat coming from Afghanistan. More than
   90 percent of the narcotics entering the world black market are produced
   there.

   Moreover, many criminal routes lie across the Central Asia countries and
   Russian territory and have not only reached Europe, but also the United
   States. Russia, together with the members of the Collective Security
   Treaty Organization (ODKB) is waging a constant and effective battle
   against the spread of the Afgh an potion around the globe.

   Tens of tons of narcotic substances and the means for their production
   have been confiscated. But nevertheless, up to 75 tons of narcotics end up
   in Russia every year. Around 30,000 person die from the ir use, and the
   number of victims of drug addiction is also growing in Europe. In fact,
   the covering force on the transit routes for Afghan narcotics could be
   made stronger.

   The ODKB countries have already more than once invited representatives of
   the coalition of international forces located in Afghanistan to join the
   joint antinarcotics operation Barrier. However, real steps to meet have
   not yet followed. In addition, in the time of the presence of foreign
   troops in Afghanistan, the production of narcotics there has grown ten
   times.

   Meanwhile the military from the United States and the NATO countries
   continue to decline from a decisive struggle with the narcotics business
   in Afghanistan territory. On this alarming background, the appointment of
   a representative of Russia to the position of head of the UNODC acquires
   special significance and opens up new possibilities, an expert and
   chairman of the Advisory Council of the Institute of Demographics,
   Migration, and Regional Development, Yuriy Krupnov, believes.

   "The Russian Federation should make full use of this situation. First of
   all, it is essential to seriously discuss the problems if Afghan narcotics
   production anew on a world level, on the level of the UN. In August, the
   Russian Federation will preside over the UN Security Council.

   "I think that through the joint efforts of the chairman of the UN Security
   Council and the newly-appointed director of UNODC, it will be possible to
   move fundamentally the problem of Afghan narcotics production. It is
   important that the world community recognize the real level of the threat.

   "An appointment of this type could not have taken place without
   consolidating all of the leading states of the world. Therefore, we see
   the formation of a wide antinarcotics coalition, and we hope that Russia
   will make full use of this opportunity," Yuriy Krupnov said.

   The Afghan narcotics threat has become real for practically the entire
   world. Therefore it is necessary to fight against this evil by uniting the
   efforts of the international community. It is now important that Russia's
   partners from the United States and other countries in the UN's
   antinarcotics department find a common language as soon as possible by
   working out a strategy and tactics for joint operations. This must be
   done; otherwise, Afghan narcotics will continue to destroy and maim
   people's futures.

   (Description of Source: Moscow Delovoy Vtornik Online in Russian --
   Website of weekly business supplement published in the Moscow paper
   Russkiy Kuryer and 41 regional newspapers; URL: http://www.dvtornik.ru)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   80) Back to Top
   Macedonian Commentary Rejects ICJ Kosovo Verdict as Result of US
   'Pressure'
   Commentary by Straso Angelovski: "Noose Around European States' Neck" -
   Vreme
   Thursday July 29, 2010 15:48:16 GMT
   Serbia and Kosovo are irrelevant in this case, although, being our first
   neighbors, they can easily trigger inconveniences and problems for the
   Republic of Macedonia as well. They are irrelevant in the sense that no
   one here in Macedonia must take sides, as the ethnic Albanian politicians
   and analysts in Macedonia have already done. The Hague verdict must not be
   a source of euphoria -- either for or against it, but it should be
   interpreted merely in terms of the Republic of Macedonia's national and
   state interests and in accordance with international law, which is still
   in effect. If we bear this in mind, we can unfortunately reach only one
   con clusion: the day when the Hague court reached its non-binding
   decision, it initiated a process of the international community's
   disintegration in the form that it has existed for 60 years now, that is,
   as the guarantor of peace in Europe and the European states following WWII
   through the existing international law. We may conclude that the Balkan
   wars, which the United States imposed in the beginning of the 1990s, were
   aimed precisely at the forceful change of the international order and
   international law. I have been writing for years now that the United
   States is slowly but steadily entering the bloody game that the world once
   witnessed and that was called Hitler's fascist attempt to violently alter
   the world order. Namely, the United States has begun the bloody
   dismantling of the existing international order, guaranteed with documents
   and institutions, such as the United Nations, in order to forcefully
   destroy international law through the wars that it has initiated an d in
   some of which it is taking part by bombarding European territory with
   banned depleted uranium and with its aggressions on Iraq and Afghanistan.

   The non-binding ruling that the United States imposed through the Hague
   court with its pressure has thus put a noose around the neck of almost all
   European states, thus jeopardizing their future and the future of united
   Europe. It has put a noose around their neck and they are now merely
   waiting to feel when the right time is to push the chair beneath their
   feet. Namely, the already accepted principle of a violent secession of a
   part of the territory of a sovereign state that is a UN member and the
   redrawing of the guaranteed borders may be a fuse for such or similar
   activities in a number of European states. The already accepted principle
   of solving any kind of problems with the force of arms, rather than
   through peaceful talks and agreements, will stir passions and incite the
   justified desire to take up arms among a number of European minorities
   that have been dreaming of an independent state for decades. Since
   international law has once been violated, it will unfortunately no longer
   be a guarantee for anyone's safety, territorial integrity, and adopted
   sovereignty. As international law has once been violated with the cynicism
   of the stronger, this will especially be dangerous for the small European
   states, which have been building their sovereignty, security, and
   inviolable borders precisely on this law. This is why we, here in
   Macedonia, are witnessing the current events. We are being blackmailed to
   change the state's name and lose our identity to make an alliance with
   NATO, which would guarantee our safety and security. Instead of
   international law and the voluntarily signed international documents
   continuing to guarantee our security, we are being offered a militant and
   military option as a guarantee for our security in the name of the new
   world order. And naturally, if we rej ect it, we will experience Serbia's
   fate, because NATO does not have the time to read the documents that
   guarantee our sovereignty, independence, and inviolable borders. Besides,
   it needs to spend the remaining reserves of depleted uranium.

   I will risk being misinterpreted at this point, but I definitely believe
   that the small states' future depends exclusively on the respect of law
   and the legal order, rather than on taking "sides," regardless of how
   powerful "the side" that we will rely on seems. The quisling governments
   some 70 years ago, too, believed that the inclusion in the powerful
   military alliance of Hitler's fascist Germany, which wanted a bloody
   change of the international order, was the only solution for their safety.
   Still, following the slaughterous wars, it was confirmed that the real
   guarantee for all of them was not the sheer military power of fascist
   Germany and the desire for a new world order, but international law, which
   ha s been protecting them over the past 60 years. The analogy of the
   current developments with the global events from that time is rather
   obvious. There are too many coincidences here for this to be accidental.
   This is why I will mention Russian President Medvedev's plan, which
   proposes a sort of a new Helsinki treaty that will guarantee peace,
   stability, and inviolability of all European states' borders and will
   establish a principle according to which any potential dispute between the
   European states will be resolved with talks, rather than with the use of
   arms and bloody outcomes.

   In the end, prior to Ilinden (2 August national holiday), I will send out
   a message from the Krusevo Manifesto that is topical nowadays as well. I
   will send it out to all those living in Macedonia, regardless of their
   ethnic or party affiliation. This is what the Macedonian people wrote 107
   years ago: "If you, too, take us as your brothers and wish us well, if you
   plan to live with us again, and if you are dignified sons of mother
   Macedonia, you can help us in one thing, which will be of great assistance
   to us: not to side with the foes, not to take up arms against us, and not
   to commit atrocities!"

   Respect the words of the Krusevo Manifesto and Happy Ilinden!

   The author is leader of TMORO-VEP (Macedonian Fatherland Organization for
   Radical Renewal-Vardar, Aegean, Pirin, Prespa).

   (Description of Source: Skopje Vreme in Macedonian -- independent
   political daily)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   81) Back to Top
   US Envoy's Remarks Trigger Kosovo Objections to Idea of Special Status for
   North
   Report by Arben Ahmeti: "Statements on North Disturb Prishtina" - Koha
   Ditore
   Thursday July 29, 2010 10:07:17 GMT
   Even though on vacation in his country, US Ambassador to Kosova
   Christopher Dell has disturbed the Kosovar public with a statement made in
   a news conference in Washington last week, where he emphasized for the
   first time that the north of Kosova could receive a status similar to the
   South Tyrol and that in principle he has seen a willingness on Prime
   Minister Thaci's part to agree to that.

   Dell's statements have prompted the opposition parties to criticize the
   government, government officials to switch off their phones, and Prime
   Minister Thaci not to accept questions from journalists. Although he did
   not respond to the media, Prime Minister Thaci was not able to avoid
   Kosova Assembly deputies, who requested explanations from him during a
   session on Thursday. Instead of Thaci, Deputy Prime Minist er Hajredin
   Kuci answered deputies' question, ruling out the possibility that special
   status for the north has been accepted as an option.

   "We must wait for Ambassador Dell to return to Kosova and explain this
   statement," Kuci said. "What I want to say is that we must read the
   ambassador's statement properly and I want to say that the ambassador's
   statement, the United States' views, and those of others are things that
   we review, but we have not thought about a special status or anything
   similar."

   According to him, the government is prepared for a solution within the
   Constitution and the Ahtisaari Plan. Kuci said that a special status for
   the north was not an option, adding that, nevertheless, this issue would
   be discussed with Ambassador Dell.

   The US Embassy in Kosova also preferred to wait for the ambassador to
   return from his vacation to give additional explanations about the
   statement if it is deemed necessary.

   In fact, d uring his meeting with journalists in Washington, Dell did not
   agree with the term "special status for the north," but he admitted that
   there could be arrangements similar to the South Tyrol model.

   According to the transcript of the news conference, when asked by a
   Serbian journalist whether Kosova Prime Minister Hashim Thaci would be
   open to the idea of autonomy for the Serbs of the north of Kosova, US
   Ambassador to Prishtina Christopher Dell said that the prime minister was
   open to resolving the issue within the European context.

   According to the official transcript of the news conference posted on the
   US State Department's website, Ambassador Dell said:

   "What I have heard him (Prime Minister Thaci) say publicly in Kosova on
   many occasions -- is that within the context of a European Union that
   consists of many regions and is recognized as such, he is prepared to look
   creatively at ways in which the special nature of the north of Kosova c an
   be accommodated within the boundaries of the unitary state of Kosova, but
   given -- recognizing that in the Europe of the 21st century there is room
   for special status -- not status, that is the wrong word -- special nature
   of regions within single countries. To be less cryptic, we are referring
   here to regional arrangements such as exist in Belgium, South Tyrol, many
   parts of Europe," Dell said. Gashi: Whole of Kosova Has Special Nature

   Tome Gashi, who is a legal adviser to Prime Minister Hashim Thaci, did not
   want to give a direct answer as to whether or not his boss was open to
   "creative" solutions for the north, as Dell said. However, he did not
   hesitate to conclude that nobody has the right to use "creative ways" to
   come up with a special status for any part of Kosova. He mocked Dell's
   statement that the north has a "special nature," saying that a ll parts of
   Kosova "have a special nature, which is their destiny."

   "Nobody should in any way try to find 'creative ways' to give a special
   status, within a European or Balkan context, to these parts of the state
   of Kosova. In my view, the European context means a special status for a
   territory of a state that remains an integral territory of that state and
   peaceful. In the Balkan context, a special status for a territory of a
   state often ends up with secession or unification of the territory of a
   state with another state. However, the Balkan version often creates
   suffering, bloodshed, and a personal and collective tragedy for one or
   another nationality," Gashi said.

   This prime minister's adviser went even further, assessing that not only
   the north but all parts of Kosova have a "special nature."

   "Every country, every state in the world has a special 'nature,' and this
   goes also for the entire territory of Kosova, and not only for the north
   of Kosova. The central part of Kosova also has a 's pecial nature,' as
   well as the southern part, Anamorave (Pomoravlje), Dukagjin (Dukadzin),
   Llap (Lab), the area of Drenice (Drenica; area in central Kosovo), and
   there are many other special natures in the state of Kosova. All these
   specifics are a destiny and not a spare territory of Kosova," Gashi said.

   The lawyer, who is also a legal adviser to the prime minister, warned that
   the north of Kosova accounts for approximately 30 percent of the territory
   of Kosova.

   "I do not believe that the states led by the United States, which have
   helped Kosova win from a 'special nature' a special status, which is
   supervised independence, will allow the game of creativity to be played to
   shrink the newest state in the world by 30 percent," Gashi said.

   Tome Gashi said that he was making these statements because of the
   decisions that his boss has to make in "difficult times."

   "Advisers are good when they advise wise state leaders wh o have a
   historic responsibility to make just decisions at difficult times," Gashi
   said. According to him, "historically, anyone who has signed any agreement
   that ended up with the loss of state territory has been called a traitor."

   "It is very easy to imagine how national treacheries end up, and they
   always end up the same; only the form changes," Gashi said. Maloku: Thaci
   Cannot Treat Kosova as Private Property

   In their reactions, representatives of the opposition parties in Kosova
   avoided commenting on the US ambassador's position on the north, dealing
   only with the part where Dell concluded that "the prime minister has a
   positive mood about the special nature of the north."

   "If the prime minister of Kosova has treated Kosova as his private
   property without asking anyone in Kosova, then he has made a big mistake,
   a very bad mistake," AAK (Alliance for the Future of Kosovo) Deputy
   Chairman Naim Maloku said.

   Ibrahim Makolli, deputy chairman of the other opposition party, the AKR
   (New Kosovo Alliance), opined that Dell's statement was disturbing.

   "Dell's statement is quite disturbing for the country. The prime minister
   should give an answer to the citizens regarding the veracity of those
   statements. We should not think about a special status for any part of the
   territory of Kosova, because under the Ahtisaari Plan, the municipalities
   with a Serb majority already have more powers compared to the
   municipalities inhabited by an Albanian majority, and this implies some
   kind of special status," Makolli said.

   In his view, Kosova does not need to rush and be afraid of the talks with
   the neighboring counties, "but some conditions should be met beforehand;
   the first condition is for Serbia to renounce territorial claims over
   Kosova, and the second condition is for Serbia to recognize Kosova as an
   independent and sovereign state."

   LDD (Dem ocratic League of Dardania) Deputy Chairman Naser Rugova said
   that Kosova was declared a sovereign state with the existing borders.

   "There is a kind of tendency among some prime ministers and presidents to
   tell the people one thing, and in meetings with diplomats say a different
   thing. Somebody is lying, either the prime minister with the coalition
   partners is lying, which means the entire spectrum of the international
   diplomacy, the most powerful states, which ultimately are sponsors of the
   independence of Kosova," Rugova said. (Preceding sentence as published)

   According to him, such "unserious" calculations diminish Kosova's
   authority in the eyes of our international friends.

   "They diminish the seriousness and the institutional approach of the
   state. Our friends, and Dell himself, have often addressed us and told us:
   Do your homework. I believe in Ambassador Dell's statements, I believe in
   his seriousness," Rugova said .

   (Description of Source: Pristina Koha Ditore in Albanian -- large,
   influential daily published by prominent activist Veton Surroi, who has
   ties to Western pro-democracy organizations)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   82) Back to Top
   Russia Wants US To Focus On Afghan Terrorism, Illegal Drugs - ITAR-TASS
   Friday July 30, 2010 01:15:03 GMT
   intervention)

   WASHINGTON, July 30 (Itar-Tass) -- Russia wants U.S. and NATO forces to
   succeed in Afghanistan, but cannot agree with all their actions, according
   to a high-ranking Russian security official."We assist U.S. and NATO
   operations in Afghanistan and we are interested in their success," Deputy
   Secretary of the Russian Security Council Vladimir Nazarov told Tass on
   Thursday after completing a working visit to the United States.However "we
   do not agree with everything they do in Afghanistan," he added.Nazarov
   explained Russia wants the coalition to focus on the fight against
   terrorism and illegal drugs in Afghanistan and said the task cannot be
   accomplished by an army."We would like to see more efficient actions aimed
   first and foremost against terrorism and drug trafficking. We believe the
   effort is insufficient. The actions shall be professional, pinpointed and
   carried out with the use of special forces and means," he said."We are
   constantly telling our U.S. partners and we know it from our own
   experience that the armed forces are not adapted to the fight against
   terrorism," Nazarov said, adding special forces and pinpointed actions
   "would prevent losses among c ivilians that are unacceptably high
   today."He said Russia is also greatly concerned over the situation in
   neighboring Pakistan. "The terror machine created in the 1980s on the
   territory of Pakistan that was nurtured also with American money continues
   to operate, this time against those who created it," Nazarov
   said.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main
   government information agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   83) Back to Top
   Russia is interested in USA's success in Afghanistan - official -
   ITAR-TASS
   Thursday July 29, 2010 22:28:53 GMT
   Text of report b y Russian state news agency ITAR-TASSWashington, 29 July:
   Russia is interested in the US and NATO forces' success in Afghanistan but
   does not agree with everything they do, Russian Deputy Security Council
   Secretary Vladimir Nazarov told ITAR-TASS after his working visit to
   Washington.He had had several meetings at the Department of State and the
   US National Security Council. For instance, he had meetings with the US
   president's special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard
   Holbrooke.Nazarov described interaction on Afghanistan as "an important
   area of cooperation" between Russia and the USA. He recalled that the
   well-known agreements on Afghan transit are "our real contribution,
   including material and financial contribution, to security" in a
   neighbouring country. On the whole, "we are contributing to the US and
   NATO operation in Afghanistan and actions of the coalition forces. We are
   interested in their success," the senior Russian officia l said.However,
   "we do not agree with everything they are doing in Afghanistan," he
   continued, referring to the USA and its allies."We would like to see more
   effective measures, aimed primarily at combating terrorism and drug
   trafficking," Nazarov said.He admitted that the Afghan drug trade causes
   particular concern in Russia. "We believe that not enough is being done in
   this area," Nazarov said. "In our opinion, these actions must be
   professional and precise and use first of all special forces and
   resources".From his point of view, this approach "would help avoid
   civilian casualties (in Afghanistan), which at the moment are unacceptably
   high". The secret documents which were published recently by the WikiLeaks
   organization "confirmed our worries", he said. "We have been constantly
   telling our American partners, including on the basis of our own
   experience, that armed forces are generally ill-equipped to fight
   terrorism," Nazarov said.The situation in Pakistan is a cause of great
   concern in Russia too, he said. "The machine of terror which was built in
   Pakistan in the 80s and fuelled, in particular, by American money, is,
   unfortunately, still in operation - but now against those who created it,"
   he said.During his stay in Washington, Vladimir Nazarov also discussed
   bilateral relations between Russia and the USA on the level of the
   security councils of the two countries. This cooperation "is constructive
   and characterized by mutual interest," Nazarov said. "In our view, it
   helps build confidence, and resolve several difficult problems of regional
   and international security and bilateral relations."During the visit, an
   agreement to continue contacts was reached and plans for further expansion
   of cooperation were outlined.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in
   Russian -- Main government information agency)

   Material in the World News Conn ection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   84) Back to Top
   Danish Daily Says Wikileaks Documents Confirm Media Criticism of
   Afghanistan War
   Editorial by ts [Toger Seidenfaden]: "Wikileaks Yet Another Mess To
   Clean up for Obama; Afghanistan Rapidly Becoming a Serious Burden for the
   US President" - Politiken.dk
   Thursday July 29, 2010 22:21:21 GMT
   In that sense President Obama is right that there is nothing crucially new
   with regard to the foundation on which he decided in favor of the new US
   strategy last spring.

   But that the reports confirm the media picture - plus new concrete details
   - that is precisely the issue. It turns the leak into a major problem for
   all those who have asserted that the media are painting too pessimistic a
   picture of the war.

   The picture now confirmed by tens of thousands of internal documents is a
   picture of a war that is not about to be won -- on the contrary.

   It now looks like a majority of the Democratic members of Congress in the
   United States will vote against the next military appropriation for
   Afghanistan. Since all Republicans will vote against, and a minority of
   Democrats as well, the political shift will have no practical
   consequences.

   But that the majority of the President's own party no longer support the
   war is nevertheless a very strong signal for how quickly Afghanistan can
   become a serious burden for Obama. Eight Catastrophic Bush Years

   The best he can do is to adhere to the decision to start the US withdrawal
   next summer.

   But his and the superpower's political problem lies in the increasing
   difficulty of concea ling that the withdrawal is a strategic defeat.
   Defeats, no matter how responsible and necessary they are to admit, are
   bitter pills to swallow, after all.

   The President must console himself with how little attention the US
   withdrawal from Iraq, which is now approaching in earnest, has attracted.
   And that is regardless of the fact that the Americans are also not leaving
   behind a stabilized country.

   How many, for example, have noticed that there still has been no new
   government formed after the election that was held many months ago?

   And that under no circumstances will it be the winner of the election -
   the nevertheless somewhat secular Allawi - who will have the crucial
   influence.

   Obama's task, in this as in so many other areas, is to clean up the mess
   after eight catastrophic Bush years. It is necessary, but not popular.

   His hope for reelection is dependent on the Republicans in all likelihood
   putting up an extremely scanty alternativ e.

   (Description of Source: Copenhagen Politiken.dk in Danish -- Website of
   independent, large-circulation, left-of-center national daily. Circulation
   on weekdays: 107,788 (2008). URL: http://www.politiken.dk)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   85) Back to Top
   Wikileaks Founder Expects Afghan War Revelations To Influence Future
   Decisions
   Telephone interview with Wikileaks founder Julian Assange in London by
   Fernando Navarro in Madrid on 28 July: "'We Provide Reliable Information
   Without Pursuing Commercial, Political Interests'" - El Pais.com
   Thursday July 29, 2010 17:14:35 GMT
   (Navarro) Are you enjoying your 15 minutes of fame or has your mission
   just begun?

   (Assange) That is not for me to say.

   (Navarro) Do you think that this leak can influence future political
   decisions?

   (Assange) Of course. The US and Pakistani administrations are well aware
   of the information that has been published. The files provide a detailed
   account of the current situation in Afghanistan. However, our only
   motivation is rendering a public service and being aware that we have to
   offer relevant stories that influence people.

   (Navarro) From the first day, the documents have been compared to the
   "Pentagon Papers" on the Vietnam war. Has this leak generated the same
   controversy?

   (Assange) Yes, I even believe that these documents are more harmful to the
   United States than the Pentagon Papers. They deal with a wide range of
   issues, ranging from the death of a child to major operations that
   resulted in hundreds of deaths.&lt; br&gt;
   (Navarro) At that time, Richard Nixon said that Daniel Elsberg, who had
   leaked the information to The New York Times, was the most dangerous man
   in America. Do you see yourself as dangerous?

   (Assange) The banks and wealthy and powerful people pose the most serious
   danger to the United States. I have no problems and I am not afraid of
   being arrested.

   (Navarro) What do you think about the United States' reaction?

   (Assange) We were prepared for such a reaction. We expected them to try to
   distract public attention from their responsibilities in this matter. This
   is serious.

   (Navarro) Hamid Gul, former head of the Pakistani intelligence services
   (ISI (Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence)), said that the
   documents were fakes.

   (Assange) The information comes from Pakistan and Afghanistan. The sources
   have links to combat units and embassies. There are a number of reasons
   they offered this information. First, for money. Second, out of personal
   interest. Third, to reveal the truth.

   (Navarro) Why do you think that the sources prefer Wikileaks over a
   traditional newspaper?

   (Assange) Because they rely on us for bringing information to light.
   Furthermore, we are good at protecting our sources. We do not give up when
   it comes to rendering a public service. To us, providing reliable
   information is always possible and we pursue neither commercial nor
   political interests.

   (Navarro) By choosing The New York Times, The Guardian, and Der Spiegel to
   spread the information, Wikileaks became a new intermediary between the
   source and the journalist. Is that the way you see yourselves?

   (Assange) Yes, because our technology and infrastructure are at the
   service of all media and organizations. However, Wikileaks is not a
   foundation. We take a different view. Our aim is different from the
   traditional one, because, apart from disclosing documents, we neither give
   in to p ressure nor pursue personal interests. The video showing the
   killing of journalists in Iraq is proof of this.

   (Navarro) Do the media pay for the information?

   (Assange) Demanding money in exchange for the information is not part of
   our philosophy. We will consider this in the future, but we have not yet
   done so. Financing ourselves is our next goal.

   (Description of Source: Madrid El Pais.com in Spanish -- Website of El
   Pais, center-left national daily; URL: http://www.elpais.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   86) Back to Top
   State Minister for Foreign Affairs Says US Entangled in Afghanistan
   Unattributed report: "US Will Not Be Able To Withdraw F rom Afghanistan
   Soon: Malik Ammad"-- All Words Within Double Quotation Marks, As Published
   - Jang
   Thursday July 29, 2010 16:00:57 GMT
   affairs, has said that baseless reports similar to the one published on
   the website Wikileaks

   have been published in the past as well. However, he has said that it is
   not necessary that every such report will be associated with the US State
   Department or Pentagon. He has said: "There are several think tanks in the
   United States, which can indulge in such activities, and I do not see
   these reports as a part of any great game."

   Expressing his views in "Kal Tak," an Express News program, he has said:
   "I do not consider the report on Wikileaks as the US Administration's part
   of a great game. These have been leaked by an official, and the Afghan
   president and US officials are now blaming Pakistan. The United States h
   as now been entangled in Afghanistan."

   Ilyas Ahmed Bilour, leader of the Awami National Party (ANP), said:
   "Thousands of our activists, two members of assembly, and now, the son of
   Mian Iftikhar Hussain have been killed. One of our political leaders had
   said that the Taliban had reached Margalla hills near Islamabad and that
   we were fighting Pakistan's war. The federal government has to decide
   about military action in North Waziristan. Therefore, we cannot express
   opinion on this. Only the prime minister can convene a conference, and
   only he can express opinion on this issue. Prime minister had also agreed
   with Nawaz Sharif's suggestion. He said that a few political parties
   secretly support the Taliban. The United States said that we should
   negotiate with the Taliban. You should tell me as to whether we should
   negotiate with the assassins, who lash our girls and cut our people's
   throats."

   Ahsan Iqbal, leader of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (P ML-N), said
   that scapegoats were being searched for the United States. Pakistan and
   its agencies were being blamed through baseless reports, he said. He said
   that Nawaz Sharif had proposed a national conference with an aim to evolve
   a strategy regarding the elimination of terrorism, Afghan affairs, and the
   US pressure.

   (Description of Source: Rawalpindi Jang in Urdu  The War, an
   influential, largest circulation newspaper in Pakistan, circulation of
   300,000. One of the moderate Urdu newspapers, pro-free enterprise,
   politically neutral, supports improvement in Pakistan-India relations)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   87) Back to Top
   Iranian Paper Warns of 'Strong Reaction' Against Any Military Action
   Editorial headlined "Washington's military threat and Iran's defense
   power" - Qods Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 12:33:50 GMT
   approved, will be the axis of Israel's military action against Iran. The
   issue of an attack by the usurper Israel on Iran has always been bandied
   about extensively by the White House echelons, since the victory of the
   Revolution, whenever it suited their diplomatic needs. Hence, it is not a
   very new term.

   Over the past few days, a new US scenario for the Middle East has been
   placed on the agenda. This scenario is based on sanctions against some
   regional countries, with the objective of downsizing their defense and
   combat capability and breaking them up.The Western countries are well
   aware that all kinds of military actions on the part of the US or the
   usurper Zionist regime will have unexpected reactions from Iran. In such
   an eventuality, there would not be any opportunity for embarking on the
   reasons for the attack or the possible choices, and only a crushing
   response by Iran in certain areas in the event of adoption of probable
   choices would be propounded.Washington knows fully well that other
   countries would not be reticent about not being concurrent (with the US)
   with regard to Iran. Disillusionment on this issue can be evaluated in
   McCrystal's remarks. This is because his declaration of the realities
   regarding NATO's defeat and the presence of America in Afghanistan
   resulted in his removal from office.In such circumstances, when the public
   opinion and economic interests of all the countries, who are tired of
   following the US and are in the throes of returning their forces from Iraq
   and Afghanistan, would not accept another war and thus will avoid
   congruence with the White House. Hence, the US will have to bear all the
   expenses and almost all the economic repercussions. This is no t
   acceptable for a country that has always offloaded its expenditure on the
   shoulders of its appendages.Washington's defeat in its attacks on Iraq and
   Afghanistan and its sustaining of more than a billion dollars in war
   expenses in these two wars, with a loss of 5,300 personnel in casualties,
   has resulted in the lack of support of the US public opinion for the White
   House's adventurist policies.So, another similar action against a country
   like Iran would impose greater expenditure on the American economy. Some
   statistics show the US as the most debt-ridden country in the world with a
   debt of $14,000 billion, making it unlikely that despite a budget deficit,
   it would be able to sustain the expenses of another war.It is obvious that
   any kind of attack on Iran would result in a spectacular rise in oil
   prices, the danger of which would steer the vulnerable economies of the
   world towards a financial crisis. If the oil price reaches $150 a barrel,
   (the level it had reached in the summer of 2008) the cost of gas would
   also encounter a sudden rise. Then the price of gasoline in the US would
   reach more than $4 per gallon.The thought that the public opinion within
   the US would justify the allegations of the White House echelons, based on
   pursuing their country's interests 12,000 kilometres away and will be
   willing to support their warmongering policies, is too far-fetched.If a
   consensus regarding the adoption of the policy of aggression against Iran
   were to gain strength, the scenarios of the Islamic Republic's combat
   would make them regret their decision.Iran has always been endowed with
   sagacious and prudent leadership and has so far been able to neutralize
   the attacks, propaganda deluge and psychological war of the enemy with its
   intelligent planning. So far, this is one of the most important
   compositions of Iran's capabilities against the powers of the world
   arrogance.Iran's eminent leader has adopted a stance on various occasions
   in accordance with the US threats and had said in the highlights of some
   of his speeches: "If the US was to attack Iran, American interests would
   be endangered all over the world."During the course of the hallowed
   existence of the Islamic Revolution, the Iranian people have affirmed
   their concurrence with the policies of their officials and have proved,
   how, at various junctures, they have entered the scene with a sense of
   duty and have displayed their exemplary role in practice.Presence in
   various areas of cooperation with the system, whether on the scene of the
   enemy's violent battle, or soft warfare, is an example of the support of
   the martyr-nurturing nation of Iran, which has played a role at every
   juncture.An assessment of the dossier of the Iraq-Iran war is a suitable
   example of the sacrificing qualities of the people of Islamic Iran, in
   which every person with any level of culture (ethnicity) prevented the
   enemy from attaining its objectives, by being united and cohesive arou nd
   the Islamic values.In the event of a clash between Iran and the US or its
   illegitimate progeny, the usurper Jerusalem regime, it will revive the
   memory of the model of the irregular combat and disgraceful defeat of this
   regime in 2006.The enemies of Iran should not forget that even with the
   utilization of all their military capability, diplomacy, the media, and
   all their regional and supra-regional allies, they could not defeat the
   Islamic resistance movement (REFERENCE to Hizballah) in Lebanon. Instead,
   the outcome of the battle was contrary to the belief of the experts and
   analysts of the Western political and military academies.With its
   inspiration from the model of Iran's resistance, the Hizballah was able to
   inflict an unforeseeable defeat on land, sea, and air, in an unequal
   combat on the despotic Israeli army that boasted of legendary
   invincibility. Even the Tel Aviv rulers were compelled to acknowledge
   defeat within the framework of the Vinogradov Committee.The Is lamic
   Republic has suitable geopolitical capability, which, in the event of any
   aggression, can inflict irreparable economic and political damages on the
   US's regional sympathizers and its supra-regional allies.Iran's strategic
   depth around its borders and in southwest Asia and even beyond, in the
   former geographical expanse of SEATO (Southeast Asia Treaty Organization),
   comprises one of the most important of compositions, which cannot be
   denied by the enemies and ill-wishers of the system. The readiness of the
   Armed Forces, especially the Basij (volunteer forces) comprising 12
   million people, has boosted the Islamic Republic of Iran's element of
   capability, quantitatively as well as qualitatively.The claims that have
   been propounded should be considered as a psychological war to test public
   opinion and the ruling elite, in order to pursue their avaricious
   objectives in an atmosphere of a soft war.It is quite clear that a threat
   of war, the practical warfare on behalf of Sad dam, sanctions and the
   actually entry into the arena of a soft war, are all issues which are not
   new for the Iranian nation. By embarking on propaganda, they are seeking
   to intensify pressures on the Iranian people.Accordingly, the Islamic
   Republic of Iran as an active member of the international community is
   willing to broaden relations on the basis of logic and negotiations, which
   are vehemently aligned with its national interests and security.If other
   governments wish to tread against the path of international norms and
   hinder the Iranian nation from achieving its rights, they will encounter
   the strong reaction of the Iranian nation.(Description of Source: Mashhad
   Qods Online in Persian -- website of conservative Mashhad daily published
   by the Qods Cultural Foundation of the Holy Shrine of Imam Reza (Astan-e
   Qods-e Razavi); URL: http://www.qudsdaily.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be o btained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   88) Back to Top
   Former ISI Chief Says US Wants To Withdraw From Afghanistan
   Unattributed report: "Another 10,000 Page Report Regarding Afghanistan
   Will Soon Be Made Public -- Gen [ret] Hamid Gul" - Nawa-e Waqt
   Thursday July 29, 2010 09:26:59 GMT
   Intelligence) chief, has said that the leaked report on Afghanistan is
   only one part of report. More pages will soon be made public.

   Talking to the Nawa-e-Waqt, Gul said that as the United States had to
   withdraw from Afghanistan, it was creating a suitable situation, and was
   giving an impression that Pakistan was not cooperating with us. Gen (ret)
   Gul said that the coming report would inform that the US troops were i
   nvolved in killing 737 Afghan civilians. Gen (ret) Gul said that the
   report would also mention corruption in the country and narcotics
   smuggling from Afghanistan.

   (Description of Source: Rawalpindi Nawa-e Waqt in Urdu -- Privately owned,
   widely read, conservative Islamic daily, with circulation around 125,000.
   Harshly critical of the US and India.)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   89) Back to Top
   US Deputy SecState Says US-ROK Drills 'Direct Result' of PRC's Support for
   DPRK
   Report by Hwang Doo-hyong: "China's failure to blame N. Korea for Ch'o'nan
   [Cheonan] led to S. Korea-U.S. joint drills: Steinberg" - Yonhap
   Thursday July 29, 2010 04:09:30 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   90) Back to Top
   America's Afghanistan Solution May Only Strengthen Pakistan
   "America's Afghanistan Solution May Only Strengthen Pakistan" -- The Daily
   Star Headline - The Daily Star Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 01:24:03 GMT
   Thursday, July 29, 2010

   In the almost nine years the United States has been fighting
   inAfghanistan, any thoughtful perso n who follows the war has had a
   recurringworry: Can America rely on Pakistan? Can our allies in that
   turbulent countryclose the Taliban-s safe havens along the border? And,
   for that matter,are the Pakistanis really trying?The massive disclosure of
   war-related documents this week by WikiLeaks raised anumber of questions,
   but none more important than the Pakistan conundrum.Although the Obama
   administration has downplayed the leaks in general, seniorofficials agree
   that Pakistan-s ability to close the sanctuaries is anabsolutely crucial
   issue.'These safe havens are a big question mark in terms of our
   successrate,' said General Jim Jones, the national security adviser, in
   aninterview at the White House Tuesday. He noted that the Taliban and
   itsaffiliates have used these havens to arm, train, regroup and
   gatherintelligence - confounding US strategy.The Pakistanis have denied
   that their intelligence service is aiding theTaliban, and they have noted
   the raw and fragmentary nature o f the WikiLeaksinformation.But the fact
   remains that the Taliban continues to operate effectively frombases inside
   Pakistan - and, indeed, is escalating its attacks. Unlessthis changes, the
   American effort in Afghanistan is likely to fail.Jones praised the
   Pakistani military for stepping up its operations in theborder region over
   the past 18 months, but he stressed: 'There-smuch more to do and not a lot
   of time to do it.'Jones drew on his own travels to the region over the
   past decade to explain whyPakistan is a 'hinge' in the war effort. He
   noted that from 2003 to2005, the organized enemy presence in Afghanistan
   was relatively low, withperhaps 100 Al-Qaeda and 3,000 Taliban fighters
   there.A 'pivotal time' came in 2006, Jones argued, when the
   Pakistanimilitary decided to 'cut a deal' with tribal leaders that
   allowedthe Taliban insurgents to cross freely from Afghanistan if they
   didn-tattack Pakistani forces. Jones, who was serving as NATO commander at
   the time,said he was 'i ncredulous' at the truce and warned the Pakistanis
   itwould never work.Opening this 'highway from Afghanistan to Pakistan'
   allowed theTaliban a 'momentum change' from 2007 to 2009, so that they
   beganto gain the upper hand, Jones recalled. It-s this continuing
   momentumthat the Obama administration has tried to check with its troop
   surge.The WikiLeaks hemorrhage has been damaging partly because it came at
   a timewhen the US mood about Afghanistan was darkening. Even hawkish
   officials havebecome increasingly concerned that success - even a minimal
   'Cplus' version - may not be possible within a realistic timeframe.White
   House officials talk these days about seeking an 'acceptableendstate' in
   Afghanistan, rather than victory. This means a patchworkprocess that
   brings greater security through a stronger Afghan national armyand police,
   plus the tribally based 'local police.' The crucialdriver will be a
   political process of reconciliation, brokered partly
   byPakistan.Administration off icials agree on the need for diplomatic
   engagement with theenemy, but they see no sign yet the Taliban is willing
   to play - with onepossible exception. Jones noted that elements of the
   Taliban might be willingto meet one US condition for talks, which is to
   disavow Al-Qaeda. 'TheTaliban generally as a group has never signed on to
   the global jihad businessand doesn-t seem to have ambitions beyond its
   region,' Jones said.Senior officials denied another seeming WikiLeaks
   revelation - that theTaliban has been using shoulder-fired missiles to
   down US aircraft. One said hehadn-t seen any reliable confirmation of
   these reports, but he stressedsuch missiles would 'be a big change in
   battlefield geometry.' Asto recent rumors that Iran may be shipping such
   weapons, the official said hehad no confirmation but that if such
   game-changing weapons entered Afghanistan,'we will not be able to sit idly
   by.'It-s usually a mistake to try to 'call' a faraway conflict- up or
   down, success or failu re - on the basis of fragmentaryinformation. But
   right now, any observer would say that Afghanistan is goingbadly, that the
   US counterinsurgency strategy hasn-t been proved, and theAmerican public-s
   patience is dwindling.That brings us back to closing the Taliban safe
   havens in Pakistan. It-sa measure of America-s strategic difficulty that
   this uncertain optionwith a reluctant partner may now offer the best
   possibility for reaching the'acceptable endstate.'Syndicated columnist
   David Ignatius is published twice weekly by THE DAILYSTAR.(Description of
   Source: Beirut The Daily Star Online in English -- Website of the
   independent daily, The Daily Star; URL: http://dailystar.com.lb)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   91) Back to Top
   Cocaine Flow To Russia Increases By 25 Pct Annually - Source - ITAR-TASS
   Thursday July 29, 2010 01:22:52 GMT
   intervention)

   MOSCOW, July 29 (Itar-Tass) -- Supplies of cocaine to Russia grow by about
   25 percent each year, head of Russia's Federal Service for control over
   drugs' turnover /FKSN/ Viktor Ivanov said."This is an average for the past
   three years," he said.Cocaine from several South American countries is a
   major drug threat along with cocaine from Afghanistan, he said."The drug
   mafia prefers new trans-continental routes using Western Africa's
   regions," he said. "From there cocaine is transported both to North
   America and to Europe, and, of course, they work out routes to Russia,
   too."(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main
   government information agency)

   Material in the W orld News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   92) Back to Top
   Afghan president, US Attorney General discuss corruption - National TV
   Afghanistan
   Wednesday June 30, 2010 19:12:32 GMT
   Text of report by state-owned National Afghanistan TV on 30 JuneHamed
   Karzai, the president of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, Wednesday
   met US Attorney-General Eric Holder at the Presidential Palace in
   Kabul.According to the information provided by the Presidential Press
   Office, to Bakhtar News Agency (BNA), the sides discussed the fight
   against administrative corruption from various angles and the causes of
   the phenomenon. The Afghan attorney-g eneral (Mohammad Eshaq Aloko) also
   attended the meeting.The president provided the visiting attorney-general
   with information about the process of administrative reforms and providing
   civil services in the country. He said that the Afghan government had made
   visible achievements in this regard over the past a few years and the
   process was under way successfully.Referring to anti-corruption efforts,
   he said that the Afghan government had launched serious and decisive war
   against the evil and unlawful phenomenon and wished that administrative
   corruption would soon be curbed in the country.Karzai added that the fight
   against the ugly practice would succeed when the USA and the international
   community reform their contract systems and urged them to avoid giving
   contracts to Afghan officials, members of parliament or their relatives
   because it would create obstacles for the implementation of the law in
   Afghanistan.The president described the existence of private security
   companie s and providing equipment to them as a threat to the Afghan
   government and urged the international community to stop supporting these
   firms and help the government to put an end to their activities.Karzai
   insisted that the USA and the international community should not give a
   political dimension to administrative corruption in Afghanistan because
   the more political steps are taken, against this phenomenon, the more
   problems it would create.The president once again called on the USA and
   the international community to accomplish the fight against the menace
   through full bilateral coordination.The US attorney-general welcomed the
   fight against administrative corruption by the Afghan government and said
   that the USA would review giving contracts to Afghan officials,
   parliamentarians and their relatives and would reform the contracting
   system in Afghanistan. However, the Afghan government, in its part, should
   accelerate the fight against administrative corruption, he noted.(Video
   shows the Afghan president and US attorney-general exchanging views at a
   meeting, some other Afghan and US officials at the meeting)(Description of
   Source: Kabul National TV Afghanistan in Pashto -- state-run television)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   93) Back to Top
   Afghan paper sees difficulties for Karzai in talks mediated by Pakistan's
   ISI - Hasht-e-Sobh
   Wednesday June 30, 2010 15:54:15 GMT
   Pakistan's ISI

   Text of editorial, "Dealing with Pakistan, start of another crisis and
   repeat of bitter experience" by Afghan independent secular daily newspaper
   Hasht-e Sobh on 28 Ju ne. Subheadings have been inserted
   editorially:According to a report by Al-Jazeera, Hamed Karzai, President
   of Afghanistan, has recently met with Sarajoddin Haqqani, leader of the
   Haqqani terrorist group, and his son, at the presidential palace in Kabul.
   Al-Jazeera has reported that Gen Ashfaq Kiyani, Pakistan's army chief, and
   the head of the ISI have paved the way for this meeting.However, the
   president's office and Pakistan's army officials have not said anything
   about this meeting. But if such a meeting has taken place, one can assess
   it from different angles. If it took place through the mediation of the
   ISI head and Pakistan's army chief, as Al-Jazeera has reported, it shows
   that Pakistan is eager to believe in Hamed Karzai as their close ally
   because they think that he is the one through whom they can ensure their
   long-term interests in Afghanistan.The Pakistani authorities have
   officially rejected having any link with the Haqqani terrorist group,
   which has claimed re sponsibility for carrying out most of the terrorist
   attacks and suicide bombings against Afghan and foreign forces in
   Afghanistan. However, accompanying Sarajoddin Haqqani inside the country's
   presidential palace and holding talks with President Hamed Karzai shows
   that now Pakistani officials want to make their link with the Sarajoddin
   Haqqani terrorist group public. Doing so, the Pakistani government wants
   to receive a large amount of money from the Afghan government and ensure
   its long-term interest in the country as the issue of NATO's withdrawal
   from the country has become heated and Hamed Karzai has shown an
   inclination towards holding talks with the Taleban.Global and regional
   support neededHowever, it is very early to talk about the result of these
   covert talks as Hamed Karzai will not be able to agree to a big deal with
   Pakistan so simply, as any kind of political deal with Pakistan should
   have the general support of ordinary Afghans, different political circles
   and civil institutions in the country. Undoubtedly, Karzai has much power
   as the president of Afghanistan, but again he is a single individual of
   this country and he cannot represent the wants, ideas and expectations of
   all Afghans. If the Afghan government reaches an agreement with Pakistan,
   it will be quite impossible for the government to make it public as most
   Afghans still remember all those cruelties the Pakistani government has
   committed against them and they will not let anyone make any deal on their
   destiny at any cost, though it will be a profitable transaction for the
   government.Moreover, the Afghan government needs to have global and
   regional support for signing any political agreement with Pakistan. There
   are other players involved in the Afghan situation, who have their own
   interest in Afghanistan, and sometimes their interests contradict with the
   interests of Pakistan. The list includes a number of big powers and
   neighbouring countries. If the Afghan government ag rees to such a deal
   with Pakistan that affects the short-term or long-term benefits of a
   number of big powers or neighbouring countries, in such a case, they will
   not let the government sign such a deal with the Pakistan. First, they
   will try to prevent the Afghan government from agreeing to such a deal
   with Pakistan through holding talks and threatening to halt their
   financial support. If the government does not accept their idea, and
   insists on its own stance, they will stop through lobbying force. In such
   a case, Afghanistan will once again experience the atrocities of the
   1990s, in which all armed groups in the country start fighting each other
   and Pakistan's dream of ensuring its long-term benefit in the country will
   remain just a dream.Karzai should win back people's trustUnfortunately,
   Hamed Karzai and his team have faced a number of serious and big
   challenges regarding their country's problem and they do not know that
   Pakistan is the only country helping the Taleban and terrorists towards
   achieving their aims. It is right though that Pakistan supports the
   Taleban, the Haqqani group and Hezb-e Eslami armed commanders and provides
   them with sanctuaries after training and equipping them, but due to the
   absence of a powerful, legitimate and reliable government in the country,
   these groups get stronger every day. Moreover, the president and his team
   do not know anything about the factors of the Taleban's empowerment, and
   paves the way for Pakistan's interference in the country's affaires.
   Karzai should look for these factors and investigate them; he should also
   bring reform in his government, improve his and his team's management
   skills and try to revive his lost trust among the people in order to have
   a legitimate, reliable and powerful government in the country. In such a
   case, neither Pakistan nor any other country will dare interfere in our
   country's affairs and we will not be bound to pay for that.One will assume
   that Karzai will reach an agreement with Pakistan; in such a situation can
   one claim that the Afghan turmoil will end? A man with a sound mind can
   never accept such an assumption as the move towards agreeing to a
   political deal with Pakistan will cause controversy and mount serious
   problems among different political groups and ordinary people in the
   country and this will finally lead to a repeat of the past bitter
   experiences. Moreover, such an agreement may mean that Karzai and his
   companions have ignored the main factors of turmoil in the
   country.(Description of Source: Kabul Hasht-e-Sobh in Dari -- Eight-page
   secular daily launched in May 2007; editor-in-chief, Qasim Akhgar, is a
   political analyst and Head of the Association for the Freedom of Speech. )

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   94) Back to Top
   Afghan daily sceptical about new US commander's success - Hasht-e-Sobh
   Wednesday June 30, 2010 14:30:53 GMT
   Text of article by Zia Zirak entitled "Fighting with Taleban, war imposed
   on Karzai", published by Afghan independent secular daily newspaper
   Hasht-e Sobh on 28 JuneFollowing the resignation of Gen McChrystal, Obama
   appointed Gen David Petraeus in his place (as head of US-led coalition
   forces in Afghanistan) to implement the USA military strategy for
   Afghanistan and control the NATO member countries' growing concern about
   Gen McChrystal's resignation. The Afghan government and NATO have
   appreciated Obama's decision to appoint Gen David Petraeus as McChrystal's
   successor.However, following McChrystal's dismissal, the Western media
   outlets expressed concern about Petraeus being successful in the Afghan
   war. Gen Petraeus was successful in the Iraq war but the Americans have
   warned him to be careful because Afghanistan is very different from Iraq
   as McChrystal's experiences of Iraq war did not help him in carrying out
   military operations in Marja and other districts of Helmand Province.In
   view of this scepticism, Gen Petraeus has a difficult task ahead of him in
   Afghanistan and no one knows whether his mission in the country will be
   successful. The most difficult situation Petraeus faces in Afghanistan is
   the negative mentality that the fight against the Taleban is America's
   fight against them (the Taleban), not Afghans. The Afghan government and
   some political circles in the country have already put aside the idea of
   war against the Taleban and it is said that the fight against the Taleban
   is a war imposed on Karzai because it has made him stand against his
   Pashtun brothers. The military presence of the Taleban in the country is
   no longer a t hreat to Karzai as he can ensure peace in the country
   through them to save his political power for a few more days. Karzai has
   even shown a kind of inclination to the Haqqani terrorist group through
   Pakistan's mediation effort because he has already acknowledged defeat in
   the fight against the Taleban.Pakistan has supported different armed
   groups, such as the Taleban, Haqqani group and Hezb-e Eslami armed
   commanders, fighting against the Afghan, Indian and USA governments. Now,
   if Karzai wants to save his political power, he needs to share power with
   these groups.If the Afghan government and Pakistan reach agreement on the
   issue of including the Taleban and Hezb-e Eslami in power, efforts by
   Petraeus efforts without an initiative by the Afghan leadership will not
   bear fruit, as it will be his fight against the Taleban and Haqqani
   terrorist group, not the Afghan government's. This is a bitter fact that
   the Obama administration and the anti-Taleban forces in Afghanistan have a
   lready understood.It seems that in such a situation; Petraeus is bound to
   accept the imposed political solution for talks with the Taleban proposed
   by the Afghan and Pakistan governments. The Afghan government was not
   ready to include Pakistan's efforts in the peace process as it did not
   want to share power with the Taleban and Hezb-e Eslami. At that time the
   government was sure that America would win the war fought against the
   Taleban and supported by Pakistan, but now, Karzai and his close
   companions no longer believe in such an idea. The reason is that Karzai,
   with his weak leadership, does not feel bold enough to be able to defeat
   the Taleban.According to reports published through national and
   international media outlets, it seems there has been more political
   coordination between Afghanistan and Pakistan. According to Pakistan's
   military spokesman, Pakistan has found its place in the Afghan problem
   since the US formally announced that it will start withdrawing its force s
   from Afghanistan in July 2011. It is clear that Pakistan will support
   talks with the Taleban as it wants that group to have its place in the
   political future of the country. Is it true that Pakistan will fill the
   power vacuum left after the American forces leave the country? Has Obama's
   deadline for withdrawing his forces form Afghanistan helped Pakistan to
   get more involved in the Afghan situation?There are signs of Pakistan's
   overwhelming involvement in the Afghan conflict. Fore example, Karzai has
   dismissed his intelligence chief and minister of interior as a sign of
   good will to Pakistan. The Pakistani spy chief and army chief of the staff
   have already visited Kabul, and Karzai has boosted his efforts to hold
   talks with the Taleban. He has stepped up his anti-Western comments and
   has even held foreigners responsible for increasing poppy cultivation.In
   such a bewildering situation, no one knows what will happen to the
   military strategy of Gen David Petraeus in Afghanist an. It is clear
   though that there are different standpoints regarding the strategy of the
   fight in Afghanistan and some White House officials no longer believe in
   military strategies. The Europeans have also supported the idea of talks
   with the Taleban but NATO does not have any intention of postponing the
   Kandahar military operation until told to do so.(Description of Source:
   Kabul Hasht-e-Sobh in Dari -- Eight-page secular daily launched in May
   2007; editor-in-chief, Qasim Akhgar, is a political analyst and Head of
   the Association for the Freedom of Speech. )

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   95) Back to Top
   Afghan TV Program Reviews Efforts To Combat Narcotics Production, Smuggli
   ng
   From the "Mobahesa (Discussion)" program; for assistance with multimedia
   elements, contact the OSC Customer Center at (800) 205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - National TV Afghanistan
   Tuesday June 29, 2010 19:57:10 GMT
   First of all, I would like to introduce our program guests including
   Mohammad Daud Daud, deputy interior minister for counternarcotics, and
   Deputy Counternarcotics Minister Mohammad Ibrahim Azhar. Dear viewers, as
   you know, international counternarcotics day was commemorated in Kabul
   last Saturday (26 June). President Hamid Karzai delivered a comprehensive
   speech at the commemoration event. We wanted to discuss President Karzai's
   speech, and also give you more information about the achievements of the
   relevant organs in combating narcotics in the country. Studio

   (Announcer) I just wanted to have a pause about some of the remarks that
   President K arzai made in his speech at the event. He said that, although
   Afghanistan has been a victim of terrorism, the coalition forces have come
   to Afghanistan to fight against terrorism. He said that, despite the
   presence of the foreign forces in Afghanistan, rather than seeing a
   reduction in the volume of narcotics produced in the country, we have
   actually witnessed increasing amounts of narcotics over the past many
   years. I wanted to hear your views about the issue. Daud

   (Daud) Thank you. At the outset, I would like to say that Afghanistan
   commemorates counternarcotics day at a time when the country has had good
   achievements in its counternarcotics campaign. Moreover, the United
   Nations Office on Drug and Crime (UNODC) and the Ministry of
   Counternarcotics have also issued their latest report, which includes
   statistics on drug addiction in Afghanistan. The report is indeed an alarm
   bell that serves to show the enormous harm narcotics inflicts on the
   people of Afghanis tan.

   The president addressed the commemoration of counternarcotics day
   yesterday. The main point is that the government's counternarcotics
   campaign has successfully reduced the amount of narcotics in the provinces
   where the government has control and where the rule of law is taking hold.
   In the current year, three more provinces will join the ranks of the
   opium-free provinces. This will bring the total number of opium-free
   provinces to 23. Moreover, we expect a 50% reduction in the volume of
   narcotics produced in Afghanistan this year. Narcotics are mainly produced
   in provinces where the insurgents have a strong presence. The production
   of narcotics is strongly related to the presence of the Taliban and
   Al-Qa'ida. Where narcotics are grown, Taliban and the Al-Qa'ida are
   present. Conversely, where the Taliban and Al-Qa'ida are present,
   narcotics are grown. According to the United Nations report, there has
   been a significant reduction in both narcotics traffick ing and the import
   of chemical materials used for processing narcotics in the more secure
   regions of Afghanistan. The bulk of narcotics trafficking has taken place
   across the Afghan borders in the insecure regions of the country. This
   proves that there is a strong relationship between narcotics and
   terrorism.

   For many years after their intervention in Afghanistan, the international
   community left the campaign against narcotics to the Afghan Government. It
   was only after 2008 that the international community started to give us
   military backup support in the counternarcotics campaign. Moreover, in the
   current year, most of the opium fields have been infected by a disease
   that will reduce the volume of opium produced this year. We will make sure
   to take joint measures with the international community to prevent the
   cultivation of opium next year so as to keep the volume of production low.
   Subsequently, we will step up our measures to eradicate opium from the
   countr y completely.

   (Announcer) You mean that the president's remarks about the increased
   volume of narcotics in the country were actually mean to refer to the
   insecure regions?

   (Daud) Surely, surely. At present, over 99% of the narcotics problem,
   meaning production as well a s trafficking, is concentrated in the five
   insecure provinces of Afghanistan.

   (Announcer) According to the UN report, there are 1 million drug addicts
   in Afghanistan. What programs does the Ministry of Counternarcotics have
   for the treatment of the drug addicts in the country, and how many of
   these drug addicts have already been treated as part of any such programs
   by the Ministry of Counternarcotics? Azhar

   (Azhar) As the esteemed deputy interior minister for counternarcotics
   said, the Ministry of Counternarcotics, Ministry of Public Health, and the
   United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime carried out a joint survey over
   the past six months that was issued last week, showing that there are over
   1 million treatable drug addicts in Afghanistan. The focus of the report
   is on the main problem, which is opium and heroin addiction. The report
   does not pay much attention to marijuana and alcohol addiction in the
   country. Overall, there are around 40 to 43 drug addiction treatment and
   rehabilitation centers in the country, which are run by the Ministry of
   Public Health and various NGOs. This number of drug addiction treatment
   and rehabilitation centers is sufficient only for about 10% of addicts in
   the country. As you know, the treatment and rehabilitation of narcotics
   addicts is very expensive. On the other hand, the donor organizations and
   countries involved in the establishment of the treatment and
   rehabilitation centers do not enjoy sufficient coordination and agreement
   over technical and financial issues among themselves. Some donor sources
   believe that it is better to create mobile treatment centers that will
   move around and stay for a period o f three months at each location to
   treat people. Such an arrangement can be very expensive, and there is
   little agreement on it among the donor sources. As a consequence of the
   report, the Ministry of Counternarcotics is required now to undertake
   certain policies and plans in coordination with the international
   community and donor sources toward the treatment and rehabilitation of
   drug addicts and also to prevent the further spread of drug addiction in
   the country.

   (Announcer) That means that the 43 centers across the country are enough
   for the treatment and rehabilitation of only about 100,000 people, while
   over 900,000 more addicts do not have access to treatment and
   rehabilitation.

   (Azhar) As I said earlier, the treatment and rehabilitation of drug
   addiction is very expensive. Afghanistan is a poor country. Moreover,
   because of the problem of insecurity, donor organizations and countries
   cannot establish treatment centers in all areas of the country. Ne
   vertheless, as I said, we have produced certain policies to address the
   issue. Recently, we had a meeting with the donor community and the UNODC.
   The donor community and the UNODC gave commitments that they will support
   us to address the problem. Obviously, it is a serious problem to have 1
   million addicts in the country. When we say 1 million addicts, you can
   count that 1 million families are also suffering as a result of such a
   high rate of addiction.

   (Announcer) There are reportedly 16 million drug addicts in the world, of
   which 1 million are in Afghanistan. If we were to say that $1 or $2 are
   spent on each addict in Afghanistan, the total would be $1 million or $2
   million per day in the country. How serious are the economic costs of drug
   addiction in the country, particularly on families?

   (Daud) Quite apart from its economic costs, drug addiction is a horrible
   phenomenon in Afghanistan. It has a terrible impact on families. As you
   know, in our cultu re and society drug addiction is also a social stigma.
   There are 16 million opium addicts and 160 million marijuana, cocaine, and
   alcohol addicts in the world. Drug addiction has even more serious
   implications than its economic costs for the country. Urban crime is
   closely related to drug addiction. We are also concerned that terrorists
   and the enemies of peac e and security may try to use drug addicts for
   their own purposes in the future. We have started discussions with the key
   sectoral ministries as well as the United Nations to devise the ways and
   means of addressing the problem. The president promised in his speech that
   he would consider allocating funds for the purpose. We hope that we will
   be able to do more in this area in coordination with the key ministries
   and the United Nations. The rate of treatment and rehabilitation of drug
   addiction in the country is far less than 10%; it is in fact below 1%. The
   number of drug addiction treatment and rehabilitation centers in
   Afghanistan is dismally inadequate.

   Five years ago, for the first time a preliminary survey was carried out on
   the rate of drug addiction in Afghanistan. The survey at the time showed
   that there were 250,000 drug addicts in the country. Hence, according to
   the latest survey, there has been a dramatic increase in the rate of drug
   addiction over the past five years in the country. Hence, we have come up
   with specific proposals to tackle the problem. First, we need to establish
   major treatment and rehabilitation centers in the major cities, where the
   addicts will be accommodated and provided with the right conditions to
   earn a livelihood. The most important thing in their treatment and
   rehabilitation of drug addicts is to create incentives for them so that
   they are motivated to abandon drugs in a sustainable way. Relevant figures
   from the developed countries show that without such measures as to
   motivate drug addicts to quit addiction, over 70% of them r eturn to the
   habit. Without creating the right conditions to ensure the sustainability
   of addiction treatment, treatment will not be effective. Hence, we need to
   determine where we are going to establish the treatment and rehabilitation
   centers as a matter of priority. The second important matter is the
   question of how we can find funding for these centers. For this purpose,
   we have held discussions with the UNODC, the USAID which is one of the
   biggest donors to Afghanistan, and the Government of Afghanistan,
   including the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Counternarcotics.
   Third, preventative measures against drug addiction constitute the most
   important element of the counternarcotics strategy. Figures show that over
   95% of the drug addicts in Afghanistan are returning refugees, especially
   from the neighboring countries.

   These are all the consequences of the three decades of conflict in
   Afghanistan. We have to undertake preventive measures in order to sa ve
   the coming generations from the scourge of drugs. We need to launch public
   awareness campaigns through the media and whatever other means about the
   scourge of drugs so that the coming generations desist from drugs. Two
   weeks ago, we participated in a major conference organized at the
   initiative of the Russian president. The conference was about the effects
   of Afghanistan's narcotics on drug addiction in Russia. The Russian
   president expressed very deep concern about the issue. Over 30,000 Russian
   youths die every year because of drug addiction. In fact, we are
   witnessing a major tragedy in Central Asia, our neighboring countries, and
   other countries of the region because of Afghanistan's narcotics. Another
   and even more serious phenomenon is the production of artificial drugs in
   more developed countries that have managed to eradicate or reduce the
   volume of drugs derived from natural plants such as opium. I was just
   reading an article today that said that at least some 13 million people in
   the United States have used artificial drugs at least once in their
   lifetimes one way or another. Similarly, this problem is serious in Asian
   countries such as Japan and Thailand. The use of artificial drugs is many
   times more dangerous than the use of drugs derived from natural plants.

   (Announcer) As Mr Daud said, the majority of the drug addicts in
   Afghanistan are former Afghan refugees who return to Afghanistan from
   foreign countries. Poverty and unemployment a re some of the major
   contributory factors to drug addiction in the country. However, as
   mentioned earlier, there are 16 million drug addicts in the world. As Mr
   Daud mentioned, many people in developed countries such as the United
   States have taken to the use of artificial drugs. What are the causes of
   such high rates of drug addiction in developed countries?

   (Azhar) Before answering your question, I would like to add something to
   what General Daud said. As part of the joint survey between the Ministry
   of Counternarcotics and the UNODC, 2,614 drug addicts were interviewed.
   The questionnaire asked them to mention the reasons as to why they took to
   drugs. The first answer from the majority of the drug addicts was that
   they became addicts because drugs are very easily accessible in
   Afghanistan. Hence, in addition to the fact that majority of the drug
   addicts in the country are Afghan refugee returning from foreign
   countries, the accessibility of narcotics is also a major cause of the
   high rate of drug addiction in the country. As part of our policy and in
   coordination with the Ministry of Interior, we intend to strengthen the
   law enforcement measures against drug dealers so that narcotics are not so
   easily available in the market. As for your question, it is true that
   poverty, unemployment, family problems, psychological pressures, and such
   other factors are all contributing to the high rate of drug addiction in
   Afghanistan. As far as the causes of drug addiction in more developed
   countries are concerned, my understanding is that psychological problems
   and work pressure constitute the most important factors. While people in
   Afghanistan might not even fully appreciate the ills of drug addiction,
   people in the more developed countries are much more aware of its
   maladies. Criminality, lack of the rule of law, and oppressive regimes are
   also contributing to drug addiction in foreign countries, because these
   factors contribute to an increase in mental health problems among the
   public. As we all know, there are multinational and multiethnic terrorist
   groups based in our neighboring countries. These terrorists are bent on
   destructive activities in Afghanistan. Many people who join these
   terrorist groups are those who have fled oppressive regimes in their own
   countries. Hence, lack of democracy, oppressive regimes, lack of the rule
   of law, and such other factors contribute to the problem of drug addiction
   i n any country.

   (Announcer) As far as we know, you provide millions of dollars to the
   provincial authorities of those provinces where narcotics production is
   reduced to nil. On the other hand, you spoke about financial constraints
   with regards to the treatment of drug addicts in the country. Is it not
   possible to allocate some of those funds for the treatment of drug
   addicts? Very briefly please.

   (Azhar) It is true that we used to provide $1 million to any province that
   would attain opium-free status in the past. That policy was based on a
   cabinet resolution. However, in accordance with our new policies, we would
   design development projects for the provinces ourselves. As such, we would
   make sure to include projects for the treatment and rehabilitation of drug
   addicts in project packages that we design for the provinces.

   (Announcer) Just following on your earlier point that there are security
   concerns that terrorist organizations might make use of d rug addicts, on
   the other hand we also spoke about the contributory factors to the high
   rate of drug addiction in the country. What measures have been taken to
   address these concerns and problems? I also have another question for you.
   Earlier, you spoke of a reduction in the amount of narcotics trafficked
   out of Afghanistan and also the amount of chemical materials imported to
   Afghanistan for narcotics processing. On a related note, President Karzai
   said in his speech on Saturday that the government does not have
   sufficient control over Afghanistan borders, but the international
   community's forces are present along the Afghan borders. As we know,
   gigantic amounts of narcotics are in fact trafficked across Afghanistan's
   borders. The trafficking of narcotics across the Afghan borders is not so
   tiny that they cannot be interdicted; it is undertaken in large truckloads
   and containers. Hence, why do the international forces not take action
   against drug trafficking in Afgha nistan?

   (Daud) First of all, let me say that, in accordance with the survey, the
   contributory factors to drug addiction in the country in order of
   precedence are: first, the low level of public awareness about the
   injuries of drug addiction; second, the easy and cheap accessibility of
   drugs in Afghanistan; and third, poverty and unemployment. These problems
   can push anyone to all sorts of problems and crimes. Therefore, in
   meetings with other government institutions, international partners, and
   the NATO forces in the country, we have discussed the question of finding
   the ways and means of helping the drug addicts in the country. We have
   proposed that we should establish centers to collect all the drug addicts,
   followed by treatment and job creation programs so as to ensure that those
   who are treated rejoin their families as healthy members.

   As for the second part of your question, it is essential that we create
   the right conditions for alternative income for the narcotics growers.
   Afghanistan is an agricultural country, but unfortunately we have not made
   much progress in the area of alternative income for the farmers yet. The
   US ambassador announced last week that the United States has allocated
   over $250 million toward alternative income in Afghanistan in the current
   year. Focusing on the alternative income program will allow us to separate
   the farmers from the drug traffickers on the one hand, and on the other
   hand improve the quality of Afghanistan's products so that they can be
   more easily marketable. Hence, the alternative income program is about
   alternative job creation, better agriculture, and quality improvement, and
   finding markets for our agricultural produce. We have to do a lot of work
   in this field. Recently, we have also heard about the wealth of
   Afghanistan's mineral resources. Investment in Afghanistan's mineral
   resources can also help the situation by creating employment opportunities
   and alternative inc ome for a lot of people. As for your question
   regarding the drug trafficking networks in Afghanistan, let me say that we
   started our work from a level of below zero initially. The
   narcotics-trafficking networks are very powerful and like a spider's web
   they have established a presence in the whole world. We needed time to
   identify these networks. We needed a very strong intelligence capability
   to do the work. Over time and with the help of the international
   community, we have managed to attain very high capacity in the field,
   which has allowed us to identify the drug trafficking networks not only in
   Afghanistan but also in the region and beyond. We have made progress
   against drug trafficking networks in Afghanistan, and we hope to detain
   and prosecute all the drug trafficking linchpins in Afghanistan. In one
   case, we even followed their trails and networks as far as Spain. I would
   like to assure the people of Afghanistan that we will spare no effort and
   we will use a ll our capacities to rescue the people of Afghanistan from
   the scourge of drugs, and the humiliation that drugs have wrought on the
   great people of Afghanistan, and save the world from narcotics exported
   from Afghanistan.

   (Announcer) Yes, and what about the question of a reduction in drug
   trafficking across the Afghan borders?

   (Daud) Yes, as I said, there has been a significant reduction in the
   trafficking of drugs out of Afghanistan and the import of chemical
   materials used in narcotics processed in the more secure provinces where
   the government has more effective control. The bulk of drug trafficking
   and import of chemical materials used in narcotics processing take place
   across Afghan borders near insecure regions of the country. We have
   implemented a joint counternarcotics program with Iran and Pakistan in
   cooperation with the United Nations. We also have another joint program
   with the Central Asian countries in cooperation with the UNODC. These
   program s have been very successful. We have interdicted significant
   amounts of chemical materials on our borders. We have also identified,
   chased up, and eliminated multinational drug trafficking networks.

   (Announcer) Thank you general, but I have another brief question as well.
   You mentioned about the counternarcotics conference in Moscow. In fact,
   the president also referred to that conference and called on the Central
   Asian countries such as Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to help Afghanistan in
   the counternarcotics campaign. What sort of cooperation can the Central
   Asian countries offer in the counternarcotics campaign? Have there been
   any understandings between Afghanistan and these countries in the
   counternarcotics campaign to date?

   (Daud) Surely Afghanistan's counternarcotics problem is not merely
   confined to Afghanistan; it is an international problem. We acknowledge
   the fact that Afghanistan's narcotics are a threat to foreign countries as
   well. Hence, tack ling the problem needs international resolve. There are
   countries that often criticize us, but I have told them that their
   criticism is not the solution and called on them to come forward and
   cooperate with us. Cooperation from the neighboring countries in the first
   place, the regional countries in the second place, and the major powers in
   the third place can be very effective in our counternarcotics campaign. We
   have held tripartite discussions with Russia and the Central Asian
   countries in the context of CAREC (Central Asia Regional Economic
   Cooperation), and now even Turkey has joined our discussions. We work on a
   joint program. There is a broad level of coordination and commonality of
   view on counternarcotics between these countries. We work on intelligence
   sharing and joint operations so that the drug traffickers find no safety
   in the region.

   (Announcer) How helpful are you that Afghanistan will be rescued from the
   scourge of narcotics that has tarnished it s international image?

   (Daud) As I said, narcotics are a global challenge and need international
   cooperation. I can see that there is good cooperation with the neighboring
   countries and at the regional level. We hope to expand our cooperation
   even further, and be witness to huge achievements in the future.

   (Announcer) (passage omitted on concluding remarks)

   (Description of Source: Kabul National TV Afghanistan in Dari and Pashto
   -- State-run television)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   96) Back to Top
   Afghan TV Program Debates Division of Power Between Presidency, Parliament
   From the "Hot Topics" program; for assistance with multimedia elements,
   contact the OSC Customer Center at (800) 205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - National TV Afghanistan
   Tuesday June 29, 2010 18:51:31 GMT
   (Announcer) What is your definition of the current government system in
   Afghanistan? Can we call it an absolute presidential system?

   (Mojaddadi) In my view we cannot call the current political system in
   Afghanistan a purely presidential system. Although the president's powers
   are recorded in the constitution in great detail, we cannot call the
   system a presidential form of government. I think it is a mixed system
   that has the features of both presidential and parliamentary systems.

   (Announcer) Does that mean we cannot call it a presidential system?
   Mojaddadi

   (Mojaddadi) In my view, we cannot call it an absolute presidential system.

   (Announcer) Some experts believe that Afghanistan's political system has
   borrowed certain f eatures of the presidential system from the United
   States and of the parliamentary system from the United Kingdom. Do you
   think this is correct?

   (Mojaddadi) I think Afghanistan's political system has borrowed the
   features of both parliamentary and presidential systems from some of the
   countries that assist Afghanistan. The president cannot dissolve the
   parliament and the parliament cannot depose the president in our political
   system. Similarly, there is a provision for a Loya Jirga in our political
   system. Hence, I think it is a mixture of the two systems.

   (Announcer) Does the current political system really have deficiencies?

   (Mojaddadi) In my view, the current political system has concentrated most
   of the powers in the office of the president, while the president is too
   often busy in foreign visits and meetings with the representatives of
   foreign countries. This situation does not leave the president with enough
   time to discharge his responsibilit ies as the head of the government.
   Although the two vice presidents are supposed to act on his behalf as
   heads of the government, they do not have enough powers to do so
   effectively either. The other problem with the current political system is
   that the cabinet ministers have to seek parliamentary approval for their
   appointments individually. Had it been a parliamentary system, people
   would have voted for a package of programs and the cabinet as a whole. In
   case of failures in the performance of the cabinet in such a system, the
   prime minister would have taken responsibility and resigned from the
   position. Similarly, a parliamentary system would have given the president
   a symbolic role and the president would have had enough time to work on
   foreign policy and engagements with foreign dignitaries. By the same
   token, the prime minister would have time to work on the economic policies
   and other domestic affairs.

   (Announcer) Hence, in your view are these the main de ficiencies of the
   current system?

   (Mojaddadi) The other deficiency of the current political system is that
   political parties do not have any role in the parliament. Lawmakers are
   not elected on the basis of a party system. Hence, oftentimes it is very
   difficult to have well-organized discussions and reach conclusions in the
   parliament. In a system based on the role of political parties, political
   parties produce their pol icies and programs and the people vote for such
   policies and programs. However, in the current system, almost anyone can
   find their way into the parliament. There is not even a minimum
   requirement of educational qualifications for parliamentary candidates. In
   the current political system, the parliament is very heterogeneous.
   Similarly, there are many deficiencies in the executive branch of the
   state as well.

   (Announcer, interrupting) Thank you, we will come back to talk about the
   deficiencies later.

   Do you agree with the view th at the current political system in
   Afghanistan is not an absolute presidential form of government and that it
   is a mixed system? Bashar

   (Bashar) I do not agree with the view that the current political system in
   Afghanistan is a mixed system. Absolutely, it is a presidential system.
   The constitution also clearly states that Afghanistan has a presidential
   system of government. What is the meaning of the presidential system? A
   presidential system is the one in which people directly elect the
   president. This means that the president does not get his or her vote of
   confidence from the parliament, plus other powers that the president
   enjoys in accordance with the constitution as we discussed.

   (Announcer) Are you saying that the political system in Afghanistan is an
   absolute presidential system?

   (Bashar) Absolutely, it is a presidential system. The nature of the
   parliament in Afghanistan is not exactly the same as that of the
   parliament in England. In En gland, the parliament is formed on the basis
   of political parties. However, in Afghanistan, most parliamentarians are
   independent candidates. Look at the list of the current parliamentary
   candidates, and you will see that most of them are standing as independent
   candidates. Even in cases where some candidates might be affiliated to
   political parties, they still present themselves as independents.
   Therefore, I believe that, unless political parties are strengthened in
   Afghanistan, the question of balancing the powers of the executive and
   legislative branches of the state cannot be addressed. Strong political
   parties can exert pressure on the president as well as on the parliament.
   If I were to say that England's political system should be implemented in
   Afghanistan ...

   (Announcer, interrupting) ...Some experts believe that the political
   system in Afghanistan is a mixture of presidential system in America and
   the parliamentary system in England. Do you not agree with this view?

   (Bashar) Absolutely not. I cannot agree with this view. Afghanistan's
   political system is neither copied from the United States nor from the
   UK's political systems. It is an independent political system as
   stipulated in the constitution. That certain features of the political
   system may overlap with some features of other political systems does not
   necessarily mean that they have been copied from those political systems.
   Afghanistan has an independent constitution that is neither related to
   England's parliamentary system nor to America's presidential system.

   (Announcer) Do you see any deficiencies in the current political system in
   Afghanistan?

   (Bashar) The deficiencies are in the constitution ...

   (Announcer, interrupting) ...Such as those to which Mr Mojaddadi referred,
   that the president has too much power and the parliament does not have
   sufficient powers?

   (Bashar) With all due respect to Mr Mojaddadi, I am afraid I do not agree
   with him. I do not agree with him because we are all supposed to live
   under the authority of the law. The constitution was approved by the
   parliament and it was accepted by the people. The constitution cannot be
   changed, and no one has the authority to interfere with the provisions of
   the constitution, except through a Loya Jirga. The constitution clearly
   states that Afghanistan has a presidential system of government. I do not
   agree with the assertion that the president is too powerful a nd the
   parliament does not have sufficient powers in Afghanistan. The fact is
   that the parliament has not been able to use its powers effectively. The
   parliament has powerful tools at its disposal ...

   (Announcer, interrupting) Do you mean that the parliament enjoys
   sufficient powers but it is not able to make use of its powers?

   (Bashar) Exactly, the parliament has powers, but it has not been able to
   make use of them. For example, if a bill is passed throug h the parliament
   but vetoed by the president, the parliament has the power to overrule the
   president's veto. This means that, if the parliament wants to pass a piece
   of legislation into law, it can do so irrespective of whether or not the
   president vetoes it. When the parliament overrules the president's veto on
   a legislative bill, the bill is deemed to have acquired the status of an
   enforceable law. However, it is quite another thing that this parliament
   does not exhibit sufficient internal unity. With all due respect to Mr
   Mojaddadi here, you go to the parliament and you will find out that not
   even 20% of the lawmakers are present. They are all absent or running from
   one ministry to another. Instead of sitting in the parliament and
   instructing the government to do things, they are running after this
   minister or that minister and begging them to do this thing or that thing
   for them. This is unbecoming of a lawmaker's status and prestige.

   (passage omitted on co mmercial interval)

   (Announcer) Dear viewers, now our third guest Mr Hasan Haqyar has also
   joined the program. Welcome to the program Mr Haqyar.

   (Haqyar) Thank you.

   (Announcer) Mr Haqyar, just before you arrived, we were discussing the
   character of the political system in Afghanistan. Mr Mojaddadi was saying
   that we cannot exactly characterize the current political system in
   Afghanistan as presidential, and Mr Bashar was saying that it is
   absolutely a presidential system. What is your view about the character of
   the existing political system in Afghanistan? Haqyar

   (Haqyar) In the name of God the Gracious and the Merciful. In accordance
   with the constitution, the political system in Afghanistan should be a
   presidential system. The government also apparently claims that there is a
   presidential system in Afghanistan. However, weak government institutions
   and prevalent anarchy in the government make it appear as though the
   presidential form of go vernment is just for show in Afghanistan. Even
   now, many provincial governors are still acting independently of the
   central government. Government officials hardly feeling bound to
   government authority either, and there are always tensions between the
   government and the parliament.

   Earlier, the professor (Bashar) mentioned that the parliament has the
   authority to overrule the president's veto on legislative bills. In
   practice, however, a number of times the parliament has overruled the
   president's veto but the president has simply disregarded the parliament's
   decisions. For example, recently the president proposed his cabinet
   ministers for parliamentary approval. The parliament did not approve a
   number of the proposed cabinet ministers. In accordance with the
   constitution, the president should have prepared another list of proposed
   ministers and sent it to the parliament for approval. The problem is that
   the president does not respect the decisions of the parli ament. The
   proposed ministers who did not win votes of confidence from the parliament
   are still serving as acting ministers in the cabinet.

   Similarly, in the case of the former minister of foreign affairs, we all
   witnessed that, despite the fact that the parliament withdrew its vote of
   confidence from him, he continued to serve as foreign minister until the
   end of the government's term. The withdrawal of the vote of confidence
   from the former foreign minister meant that he was not a legitimate
   minister anymore, but Karzai did not give any importance to the
   parliament's deci sion and let his foreign minister continue in the
   position. All this means that the presidential form of government is there
   just for show. For example, provincial officials in Mazar (Balkh Province)
   do not accept the authority of the central government. The governor openly
   takes position against the president. He openly issues resolutions against
   the president and disregards the president's instructions; yet, he still
   serves as governor.

   (Announcer) Hence, is your view that the presidential form of government
   is there just for show, but in reality it does not exist in Afghanistan
   currently?

   (Haqyar) Exactly, the presidential system is just for show.

   (passage omitted on the program announcer and participants continuing on
   the above themes)

   (Description of Source: Kabul National TV Afghanistan in Dari and Pashto
   -- State-run television)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   97) Back to Top
   Afghan daily fears reversal of McChrystal approach to civilian casualties
   - Weesa
   Tuesday June 29, 2010 13:19:10 GMT
   casualties

   Text of editorial, "Wrong prediction that can destroy both international
   community, Afghans", by pro-government Afghan newspaper Weesa on 28
   JuneFox News is quoted as saying that the new commander of NATO and
   American forces in Afghanistan, Gen David Petraeus, has said that he will
   introduce changes to the nature of military operations immediately after
   officially taking charge in Afghanistan. The report by Fox News says some
   American military commanders have told the new commander (Petraeus) that
   the restrictions imposed on them to avoid civilian casualties have tied
   their hands and they cannot effectively fight insurgents. A senior
   American military official said some months ago that the efforts to avoid
   civilian casualties had posed a threat to the lives of their soldiers.This
   clearly shows that American soldiers want the previous freedom that
   authorizes them to wilfully carry out their operations and not care about
   civilian casualties. They want so much freedom that they can turn their
   guns on whoever comes their way and kill people and destroy villages like
   Genghis Khan. They believe that every tall person wearing a turban should
   be killed whether or not he is Mullah Omar or Usamah. This is the attitude
   of the American army to the Afghan people and, in general, to mankind.
   Unfortunately, they are wrong again. If they think they will save their
   lives by causing more bloodshed, it is their serious blunder. They do not
   take into account the recent reaction to these arbitrary deaths.They do
   not think how civilian casualties will impact on the people. They do not
   care about civilian casualties or think how seriously it will humiliate
   their war. The fact is that the biggest problem of America and the
   international community and the key success of the insurgents is that the
   international community has undermined the confidence of the Afghan people
   and this has helped insur gents to consolidate their influence. Gen
   McChrystal was at least against such a strategy. If the American forces
   are granted unlimited freedom to set ablaze everything and kill everyone,
   they should also increase the number of their coffins because the Afghan
   nation will definitely react to such actions.(Description of Source: Kabul
   Weesa in Pashto -- pro-government daily launched in early 2006; supports
   reconciliation with the Taliban and Hekmatyar's groups.)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   98) Back to Top
   Paper urges Afghan government to take 'decisive' action, end war - Weesa
   Tuesday June 29, 2010 11:39:13 GMT
   Text of article by M Shafiqi headlined "Afghanistan's future; three
   probabilities" published by pro-government Afghan newspaper Weesa on 28
   JuneAl-Jazeera television network has reported that Sirajuddin Haqqani
   (son of Jalaluddin Haqqani) has left for Kabul and held talks with
   President Hamed Karzai with the mediation of Pakistan's military
   intelligence, ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence). Let us not comment on how
   true this report is and whether it is part of a propaganda campaign. The
   main question is what is the strategy of international community and
   Afghans for the Afghan war? Can it meet the demands of the Afghan people
   and how practical it is? There are three probabilities about Afghanistan.
   First, military solution to the war. Second, political solution to the war
   and third, the continuation of the current situation.Regarding the
   military solution to the war, we can say that we have missed many
   opportunities. The international communit y committed some serious
   blunders in Afghanistan and the region following the overthrow of the
   Taleban's government. It is clear that those blunders were serious whether
   they were made intentionally or unintentionally. The Afghan government and
   system were not strengthened. The efforts to reach reconciliation with the
   insurgents and bring them into political process were foiled. Not only
   these efforts were impeded but also those insurgents, who were not
   fighting the system, were forced to reorganize and strengthen the enemies
   of system.The international community did not exert adequate pressure on
   Pakistan (to stop backing insurgents). As a result, the enemies of the
   government and system turned into an organized and strong force. The
   actions of international military forces, weakness of Afghan government's
   local administrations and corruption helped insurgents to consolidate
   their influence and turn into a dangerous force. Now it is not easy and
   simple to destroy this front because there is lack of consensus within the
   international coalition over a decisive fight and coordination between the
   Afghan government and the international coalition.They do not pursue
   common goals and more importantly, the Afghan people no longer back the
   actions of international forces as in the past. What is more disturbing is
   that neither members of the international coalition has the will to take a
   decisive action against the insurgents. Even if (the international
   coalition) decides to eliminate insurgents through the use of military
   force, it is difficult that this approach will prove successful, given the
   extent of casualties (on the part of foreign troops) and its
   consequences.Secondly, it is not easy, but possible to seek a political
   solution and reach reconciliation with insurgents. It requires some
   sacrifices and this issue is the main obstacle impeding the adoption of
   reconciliation approach. There is a possibility of reconciliation and
   agreement. But, if r econciliation is reached with insurgents, the
   international forces will have no pretext for their presence in
   Afghanistan. The main problem is that the international forces believe
   that reconciliation and agreement are against their interests. One of the
   reasons for Gen McChrystal's removal is that he was supporting the Afghan
   government's national reconciliation programme.It is easy to undermine the
   peace and reconciliation process because it is hard to ideologically unite
   a generation hit by prolonged wars. It is pursuing minor objectives and
   goals, and some groups have been established for such minor objectives.
   These groups can be used as a tool to achieve such objectives. It is
   impossible to hire or buy suicide bombers. (Sentence as published)
   Reconciliation and agreement needs to be reached with many sides. It is
   also difficult to successfully execute this process at the same time.The
   neighboring countries, in particular Pakistan, are key sides in this
   process. The rec ent meetings between the Afghan and Pakistani
   intelligence and military circles are part of these efforts. It is not
   easy to reach complete reconciliation and agreement with insurgents at the
   present stage. However, one should believe that war and bloodshed will not
   last forever and peace will definitely be restored someday. The Afghan
   people's main demand is to put an end to the ongoing war that sheds their
   blood and destroys their country. But, the international community wants
   war and crises to continue. Our people can no longer tolerate war and
   therefore, peace and reconciliation should be reached with
   insurgents.Thirdly, perhaps the objective of international community, in
   particular the present American power brokers is that the present
   situation should continue, meaning that neither reconciliation should be
   reached nor should war be shifted to the main centers (where insurgents
   are trained and funded) to end war. They do not want to destroy the
   centers where insurgent s are trained and equipped.They want a symbolic
   government in Afghanistan that has relative control over Kabul and a few
   major cities and the rest of the country should witness rivalries and
   bloodshed between different groups. Such a situation will bring a gradual
   death to the Afghan people. Now it is the responsibility of the Afghan
   government and people not to remain indifferent at this decisive stage.
   They should clear up everything with the international community and not
   lend an ear to the withdrawal or non-withdrawal of their troops.They have
   no intention to leave Afghanistan. The Afghan people should not fall prey
   to a foreign war. Our senior officials have the right to determine their
   people's destiny at the present dark stage. The international community
   should pursue its regional and international objectives. However, our
   people should not fall prey to their rivalries and objectives. This is
   possible only when the ongoing devastating war is ends.(Description of Sou
   rce: Kabul Weesa in Pashto -- pro-government daily launched in early 2006;
   supports reconciliation with the Taliban and Hekmatyar's groups.)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   99) Back to Top
   Abolition of AA And Conclusion of Peace Treaty to Replace It Demanded in
   S. Korea - KCNA
   Friday July 30, 2010 03:41:18 GMT
   Abolition of AA and Conclusion of Peace Treaty to Replace It Demanded in
   S. Korea

   Pyongyang, July 30 (KCNA) -- The Youth and Students Solidarity for
   Implementing the June 15 Joint Declaration of South Korea on Tuesday
   released a statement titled "Abolish Armistice Agreement and Conclude
   Peace Treaty."The statement accused the United States of having increased
   the danger of a war on the Korean Peninsula since the signing of the AA in
   wanton violation of it.The situation on the peninsula is so tense that a
   war may break out any moment, it said, denouncing the U.S. and the Lee
   Myung-bak (Yi Myo'ng-pak) regime for kicking off the largest-ever joint
   naval exercises for aggression against the DPRK in the East Sea of
   Korea.It termed the joint military exercises dangerous war moves which
   might wreck the peace and stability in the Korean Peninsula and Northeast
   Asia and, moreover, spark off a new big war.It stressed the need to
   abolish the AA, build a peace-keeping mechanism on the Korean Peninsula
   and thoroughly implement the June 15 joint declaration and the October 4
   declaration for the purpose of achieving the independent reunification,
   peace and prosperity of the nation.It demanded the United States and the
   Lee Myung-bak (Yi Myo'ng-pak) regime stop at once the joint military
   exercises threatening peace and opt for settling the issue through
   dialogue.(Description of Source: Pyongyang KCNA in English -- Official
   DPRK news agency. URL: http://www.kcna.co.jp)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   100) Back to Top
   US Tracking DPRK's Money Flow for Sanctions
   Unattributed report: "U.S. Tracking N.Korea's Money Flow For Sanctions" -
   Chosun Ilbo Online
   Friday July 30, 2010 01:27:14 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Chosun Ilbo Online in English -- English
   website carrying English summaries and full translations of vernacular
   hard c opy items of the largest and oldest daily Chosun Ilbo, which is
   conservative in editorial orientation -- strongly nationalistic,
   anti-North Korea, and generally pro-US; URL: http://english.chosun.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   101) Back to Top
   UN Command, DPRK Begin 3rd Round of Talks Over Ship Sinking on 30 Jul
   Updated version: upgrading precedence, revising headline, adjusting tags
   and adding referent items; Yonhap headline: "U.N. Command, N. Korea Begin
   Third Round of Talks Over Ship Sinking" - Yonhap
   Friday July 30, 2010 01:37:19 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonha p in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   102) Back to Top
   Un Vote Declares Access To Water a Basic Human Right
   "Un Vote Declares Access To Water a Basic Human Right" -- The Daily Star
   Headline - The Daily Star Online
   Friday July 30, 2010 01:22:17 GMT
   Friday, July 30, 2010

   BEIRUT: Access to clean water and sanitation were declared
   fundamentalhuman rights Wednesday in a landmark vote by the UN General
   Assembly.The passage of the nonbinding resolution which calls water 'a
   human rightthat is ess ential for the full enjoyment of life and all human
   rights' issupposed to have more than just symbolic significance for
   governments which aregrappling with the dual pressure of rising demand and
   falling wateravailability.Lebanon - which voted for the resolution - has
   been slowly erodingits fresh water reserves for decades and experts fear
   that demand couldincrease by 80 percent in the next 15 year and that the
   country could run outof ground water supplies by 2015 if current trends
   are not reversed.'Issuing a nonbinding resolution does not have a direct
   legal obligationon countries (which are) party to the UN,' said Darine
   al-Hage, executivedirector of Lebanese NGO Alef: Act for Human Rights.
   'However, suchresolutions usually could develop into being a source of
   international law andcould eventually generate drafting-related
   conventions to be discussed withinthe UN country members, which applies to
   Lebanon as a state party.'The resolution, which advocates th presentation
   of a nnual reports on wateraccess to the Security Council, also puts added
   pressure on the internationalcommunity to fund water-management projects
   in poorer countries.The resolution was adopted by a vote of 122-0 but 41
   predominantly advancednations, including the United States, abstained in
   the vote.'The (US) is deeply committed to finding solutions to our
   waterchallenges,' US diplomat John Sammis told the General Assembly.'(But
   the resolution) describes a right to water and sanitation in a waythat is
   not reflective of existing international law.'Previous attempts to define
   access to clean water as a basic human right failedin 2008 after several
   developed countries again moved to have references towater stricken from
   the resolution.Advocacy groups at the time attributed the failure to the
   consequences forBOTtled water exporters, which, it was feared, would be
   forced to sell theirproducts to water poor countries at a reduced rate.The
   new resolution, put forward by Bolivia, was a dvanced on the basis
   thatinadequate access to water kills more people every year than any wars
   orconflict. Some 4.5 million people, including 1.5 million children under
   the ageof 5 are thought to die every year due to insufficient access to
   clean drinkingwater.(Description of Source: Beirut The Daily Star Online
   in English -- Website of the independent daily, The Daily Star; URL:
   http://dailystar.com.lb)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   103) Back to Top
   United States Seen Interfering in China's Islands Dispute With Neighbors
   Article by Vladimir Skosyrev: "United States Interferes in China's Dispute
   With Its Neighbors. Washington Seeks New Partners in Southeast Asia" -
   Nezavisimaya Gazeta Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 12:28:35 GMT
   The Chinese government has reacted sharply to the attempt by US Secretary
   of State Hillary Clinton to intervene in the long-running dispute between
   the PRC and its neighbors over the ownership of islands in the South China
   Sea.

   Speaking at the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries'
   forum in Vietnam, Clinton intimated that the United States' national
   interests are to play the role of mediator in settling the conflict over
   the approximately 200 islands and atolls claimed by China, Vietnam,
   Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan, Indonesia, and the Philippines.

   PRC Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi stated that American mediation would lead
   only to the increase of tension in the region. "What will happen if this
   question turns into an international or a multilateral issue? Its solution
   will become more diffic ult, and the situation will deteriorate," he
   indicated.

   The Chinese official press accused the Secretary of State of a cynical
   attempt to stymie the strengthening of China. "America hopes to restrain
   China with the aid of military means," the Renmin Ribao newspaper claims.
   And the English-language Global Times expressed itself even more
   trenchantly: "China will never give up the right to defend its cardinal
   interests via military methods," the publication writes.

   These words should not be taken for the bravado of the reporters working
   in the newspaper. Back in March Beijing warned American officials visiting
   the PRC that the South China Sea is the sphere of its cardinal interests.

   According to the information of The New York Times, China is preparing its
   Navy to counter a potential adversary. It is actively building aircraft
   carriers and nuclear submarines armed with ballistic missiles.

   The dispute over the islands in the South China Sea, into which virtually
   all the coastal countries have been drawn, bears a very acute character.
   The maritime trade route through which China delivers energy sources and
   through which goods from the Middle Kingdom find their way to Europe and
   the Near East passes through this region. In addition, it is believed that
   rich resources of oil and gas are hidden under the seabed.

   In 1988 a battle erupted between the Chinese and Vietnamese navies in the
   region of the disputed Paracel Islands. Three Vietnamese ships were sunk.
   Beijing has also warned foreign oil companies that they should not
   conclude agreements with Vietnam to prospect for oil in this region.

   The strengthening of China's positions in East Asia is of concern to its
   neighbors. The other day, Japan announced for the first time in the past
   three decades that it will increase its submarine fleet. Earlier,
   submarines were acquired by Vietnam, Singapore, and Malaysia.

   The mood of anx iety of China's neighbors is a factor allowing Washington
   to strengthen ties with traditional allies and to recruit new ones. Tokyo
   has agreed to retain the American military base in Okinawa, while South
   Korea decided to keep its armed forces under the command of an American
   general.

   In conversation with Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Pavel Kamenov, a leading
   research assistant at the Russian Academy of Sciences Far East Institute,
   recalled that in 2002 the coastal countries of the South China Sea agreed
   in Phnom Penh that they should have equal access to resources and to
   resolve vexed questions by means of consensus. China proceeds in its
   policy on the basis of the provisions of this document. The exacerbation
   of the situation , in the expert's opinion, is caused by the fact that the
   United States is apprehensive about the growth of China's powe r, and
   fears losing its dominant influence in the region. "China, on the other
   hand, is seeking to establish normal relations wi th the United States.
   But not at the price of concessions on problems touching the PRC's
   security," Nezavisimaya Gazeta 's interlocutor concluded.

   (Description of Source: Moscow Nezavisimaya Gazeta Online in Russian --
   Website of daily Moscow newspaper featuring varied independent political
   viewpoints and criticism of the government; owned and edited by
   businessman Remchukov; URL: http://www.ng.ru/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   104) Back to Top
   Deputy USTR Says US-ROK FTA's Ratification to Enhance Exports, Jobs
   Updated version: Replacing 1642 GMT version with update provided by source
   at 2239 GMT; Following is source-supplied update to referent item; By
   Hwang Do o-hyong: "(LEAD) Korea FTA's ratification to enhance exports,
   jobs: Deputy USTR (ATTN: ADDS Rep. Levin's remarks in paras 11-12)," "(2nd
   LD) U.S. to focus on auto, beef in FTA negotiations: Kirk (ATTN: CHANGES
   headline, lead; ADDS remarks by Kirk throughout)" - Yonhap
   Thursday July 29, 2010 04:19:35 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   105) Back to Top
   DAG Says No One in Custody Under Suspicion of Contact With Shehzad
   "Contact With Faisal Sh ehzad -- No One Is in Intelligence Agencies'
   Custody: Deputy Attorney General" -- Online headline - Jang
   Thursday July 29, 2010 18:41:12 GMT
   arrest of five individuals by the intelligence agencies under suspicion of
   contact with Faisal Shehzad, who is under arrest in Time Square attack
   case, the Supreme Court has asked the attorney general to submit the
   detailed report by 6 August. The hearing was conducted by a three-member
   Supreme Court bench, headed by Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry.

   On this occasion, presenting the report to the learned court, Deputy
   Attorney General (DAG) Tariq Agha said that no person was in custody of
   the intelligence agencies under the suspicion of contact with Faisal
   Shehzad.

   Asghar Hussain, the lawyer of the two missing persons, Salman Ashraf and
   Ahmed Raza, said that, in a meeting with the family members of the two,
   the interior m inister had clarified that they would be released after the
   investigation.

   (Description of Source: Rawalpindi Jang in Urdu  The War, an
   influential, largest circulation newspaper in Pakistan, circulation of
   300,000. One of the moderate Urdu newspapers, pro-free enterprise,
   politically neutral, supports improvement in Pakistan-India relations)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   106) Back to Top
   PML Leader Says Army Chief's Service Extension Should Benefit People
   Unattributed report: "Army Chief Should Prove Extension Right By Taking
   Decisions In Interest Of Nation: Kabir Wasti" - Jang
   Thursday July 29, 2010 12:56:00 GMT&lt; /div&gt;
   League (PML), has said to Army Chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani that he
   should prove his extension right by taking decisions in the interest of
   the Pakistani nation, instead of the United States or the ruling Pakistan
   People's Party (PPP).

   In a statement of his, he said that the decision of extending army chief's
   service tenure is good; however, the army chief would have to show that
   the decision has benefited the Pakistani people. He said that considering
   the growing chaos in the country, corruption, refusal to abide by Supreme
   Court's orders, rental power, LNG, Pakistan Steel, Pakistan International
   Airline (PIA), and other scandals, the army chief had been granted
   three-year extension. He said therefore, the army chief should play his
   role.

   He said that it would be utterly wrong to say that the army has no role in
   politics; it always had and would always have in future. He said:
   "Therefore, I want to sa y to the army that it should not be a silent
   spectator because the country is moving toward failure."

   He said that if General Kayani kept serving only the United States and
   corrupt politicians, the nation would be completely disappointed with the
   army, which would be very dangerous for the integrity and security of the
   country. He said that the decision of extending service tenure was a right
   decision; however, it should benefit the people. He said that the courts
   should have strong support so that they could hold strict accountability.

   (Description of Source: Rawalpindi Jang in Urdu  The War, an
   influential, largest circulation newspaper in Pakistan, circulation of
   300,000. One of the moderate Urdu newspapers, pro-free enterprise,
   politically neutral, supports improvement in Pakistan-India relations)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   107) Back to Top
   Nigerian Women's 100m Record Holder Aims Higher
   Xinhua: "Nigerian Women's 100m Record Holder Aims Higher" - Xinhua
   Thursday July 29, 2010 18:09:46 GMT
   NAIROBI, July 29 (Xinhua) -- Nigeria's rising women sprint star Blessing
   Okagbare believes she can only get better after breaking the 14-year-old
   African Championships record in women's 100m to give Nairobi's 17th
   Championships its first event record on Thursday.

   Starting slow from the blocks, the University of Texas El Paso General
   Studies major accelerated from 40m and dipped across the line in a
   remarkable 11.03 in Nairobi's high altitude, matching her season's best
   that was run at the Prefontaine Classic in Oregon that mad e her Africa's
   fastest woman this year."I wanted to run faster but the tension was so
   high before the start," Okagbare told Xinhua after emerging tops in the
   final."I was afraid of false starting and I decided to get off the blocks
   slowly and try to catch up from 30m to 40m. I know I did not make the best
   start but it's a huge relief the 100m is out of my way, I'm so
   relieved."The 22-year-old is gunning for three victories at the
   championships, with the 200m and long jump competitions still to
   come."There's not much time to celebrate this. I have to keep on training
   and focusing for the other two events," the athlete who gave Nigeria their
   second gold in a matter of minutes said. Okagbare obliterated the 11.05
   previous championship best run by her compatriot, Mary Onyali in 1998.Seun
   Adigun had given the West Africans their first gold when she fired to a
   13.14 victory in the women's 100m hurdles final.Asked whether training in
   the United States had improved her craft, Okagbare disclosed: "The good
   thing about training there is because I can focus since its all about me,
   myself and I as well as how far I can push myself."The new African women
   dash champion ended the reign of compatriot, Damola Osayomi who took
   bronze (11.22) with Gabon's Pau Milama (11.15), who made a great start,
   dipping for silver."I believe I can only get faster with time and my aim
   is to be as competitive as I can be at the top level. For now, I thank God
   for this victory that has made me very happy," she said.(Description of
   Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for
   English-language audiences (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   108) Back to Top
   Xinhua 'Feature': Rain Dampens Rescue Efforts in Pakistani Plane Crash as
   Nation Mourns
   Xinhua "Feature": "Rain Dampens Rescue Efforts in Pakistani Plane Crash as
   Nation Mourns" - Xinhua
   Thursday July 29, 2010 10:07:11 GMT
   ISLAMABAD, July 29 (Xinhua)-- Nature joins the aggrieved Pakistani nation
   Thursday that mourns the death of 152 people killed in Wednesday's
   passenger plane crash in the capital city Islamabad, as desperate
   relatives were frustrated because search for a dozen more missing bodies
   was seriously compromised due to heavy monsoon rains.

   There was not a single eye that did not burst into tears when three bodies
   including a newly-wed couple arrived in Karachi early Thursday morning.
   Five more bodies are also being sent by air to Karachi, an aviation
   sources told Xinhua.Submerged d eep into grief and sorrow many others
   awaiting relatives did not wink an eye the whole night still frustrated
   around airports and hospitals for news about their perished loved ones.
   The funeral prayers in absentia (an Islamic faith observance to pay homage
   to dead) has also been offered across the country.Some relatives of the
   victims protested at the Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences (PIMS),
   Islamabad, on Thursday morning for delay in handing over of bodies of
   their relatives. Most remained clueless even after traveling long
   distances to Islamabad about the remains of their relatives."We spent an
   uncomfortable night under the open raining sky after traveling to
   Islamabad," complained Mubashir, whose sobbing red eyes matched all others
   around at the PIMS hospital. "We have been asked to run around to morgue
   in one corner and for DNA test to the other," he added.All onboard 152
   people including six crew members were perished when the private airliners
   Airbus-321 medium sized jet crashed a minute after it lost communication
   with airport's control tower at 9:43 a.m. local time into the wooded
   Margalla hills surrounding the northeast of Islamabad on Wednesday amid
   heavy rains and dense fog.The ill-fated flight also carried two Americans,
   a spokesman of the United States embassy in Islamabad confirmed with
   Xinhua.Some 138 bodies were brought to PIMS after being airlifted by seven
   Pakistani military helicopters that supplemented the rescue efforts on
   Wednesday widely participated by an infantry battalion troops,
   firefighters, politicians and local residents.After completing postmortem
   on 112 bodies, 94 were shifted to morgue, hospital sources said, adding
   that 55 bodies were handed over to their relatives after identification.
   However, rest of agonizing relatives would have to wait for a week until
   the DNA test results to identify the torn body parts of the victims.The
   "Black Box" of flight ED-202 also could not be found, Pakistani
   information minister Qamar Zaman Kaira admitted before the media after
   conflicting statements about the recovery and subsequent decoding of the
   much need equipment to explore the cause of the crash. The minister also
   announced half a million rupees compensation for each victim of the
   crash.Pakistani Defense Minister Ahmed Mukhtar, who took an aerial view of
   the site along with Prime Minister Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani and chief
   ministers of the four provinces on the day of incident, also joined the
   latest official chorus on the missing informative equipment.Despite heavy
   rains, with masks wrapped over their noses, a 35- member team search and
   rescue team of capital city's municipal authority is still searching for
   the Black Box and remains of the remaining victims in a saddened
   atmosphere filled with smells of blood, decomposing and burned human body
   parts at the site of the plane crash in the foothills of Margalla
   hills."Black Box can help us in the invest igation," Interior minister
   Rehman Malik said as a 6-member investigation committee has been formed to
   investigate the incident that is keeping the white and green crescent and
   star studded Pakistani flag at the half mast, as both Prime Minister
   Gilani and President Asif Ali Zardari announced Thursday as a day of
   mourning in the Islamic nation.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in
   English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences
   (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   109) Back to Top
   China Calls on US To Contribute To Bilateral Military Exchange
   Xinhua: "China Calls on US To Contribute To Bilateral Military Exchange" -
   Xinhua
   Friday July 30, 2010 04:31:52 GMT
   BEIJING, July 30 (Xinhua) -- China on Friday called on the United States
   to "handle carefully" sensitive issues such as arms sale to Taiwan and
   contribute to the development of military-to-military relations between
   the two countries.

   Senior Colonel Geng Yansheng, spokesman of China's Ministry of National
   Defense made the call after being asked to comment on the possibility of
   military- to-military exchanges between the two countries in the near
   future after U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton talked at length
   about U.S. "national interests" in the South China Sea recently.China has
   attached great importance to and has taken a positive attitude towards the
   development of military relations between the two countries, Geng said,
   adding China has made unremitting efforts in this regard.He urged the U.S.
   to create &amp;qu ot;favorable environment and conditions" to promote
   military- to-military relations between the countries.In January, China
   cut off some military exchanges with the U.S. following the Pentagon's
   decision to sell a nearly 6.4-billion-U.S.-dollar arms package to Taiwan,
   an inalienable part of China.Subsequently, none of the planned high-level
   visits between the two militaries have been possible over the last six
   months.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's
   official news service for English-language audiences (New China News
   Agency))

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   110) Back to Top
   PRC Military Spokesman Calls On US to 'Handle Carefully' Sensitive Issues&lt;
   br&gt;Updated version: rewording subject line for clarity, adding Urgent,
   Military topic tags; Xinhua: "China Calls on US To Contribute To Bilateral
   Military Exchange" - Xinhua
   Friday July 30, 2010 04:35:51 GMT
   (Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news
   service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   111) Back to Top
   Polish Special Forces Set To Join Elite NATO Club, Launch Recruitment
   Drive
   Report by Edyta Zemla: "Searching for Commandos" - rp.pl
   Thurs day July 29, 2010 12:10:41 GMT
   "There are a lot of people interested in serving in the special forces,
   which is why every commander has the right to choose only the best," Major
   Jacek Poplawski from the DWS explains. "That is why both the head of the
   Special Forces and the commanders of particular units routinely take
   advantage of this right by carrying out various types of selection courses
   that correspond to the characteristics of the given unit under their
   command."

   "We need to organize selection courses in order to choose the best
   applicants. But expanding the ranks of our units is not everything," an
   officer from the GROM explains. "People leave and we routinely have to
   fill in these vacancies." No Worse Than the Americans

   As Rzeczpospolita has learned, a informational-promotional campaign will
   soon be launched to attract individuals interested in serving as command
   os in the Army.

   "Among other things, we plan to publish information on special forces
   units and the selection process in military interest magazines," says an
   officer from the GROM.

   As Rzeczpospolita's sources emphasize, the most difficult selection
   process is reserved for the GROM. The unit has been compared to the best
   special forces regiments in the world: the US Delta Force, British SAS, or
   Israeli Sayeret Matkal. The GROM's strength lies in its commandos. They
   have to be selected very carefully. Applicants' skills, predispositions,
   strength, and character are all put to the test.

   "I cannot imagine someone being accepted into the GROM who has not gone
   through the selection process. This is a kind of test that is designed to
   show whether a given individual is fit to serve in the unit," says Andrzej
   Kruczynski, the former commander of a GROM combat group.

   General Slawomir Petelicki was the founder and two-time commander of the
   JW (military unit) 2305 GROM special forces regiment, which is celebrating
   its 20th anniversary this year. Together with a group of handpicked men,
   Petelicki also personally went through the unit's first selection process
   in the mountains of the United States. "We showed the Americans at the
   time that even though we were just beginning, we were still able to
   perform under the most difficult conditions," Gen Petelicki says.

   Following this test, Gen Petelicki began to recruit the first commandos in
   Poland together with American Delta Force instructors.

   Piotr Cien-Maciejczyk was one of the people who found themselves in this
   first group. He graduated from the Land Forces Military Academy in Wroclaw
   in 1991. Murderous Mountain Trek

   "Among our graduating class of 200, 25 people were accepted into the JW
   2305 after the first selection," Cien-Maciejczyk recalls.

   Before this happened, however, the young officers did not even know what
   the unit's purpose was or what tasks it performed. They also had no
   information about how to prepare for the selection process or whether it
   would even take place at all. They had to get to the Bieszczady Mountains
   on their own in a matter of hours. Once there, they faced a murderous trek
   through the mountains.

   What does the selection process usually look like? One of the tests
   involves crossing a rope suspended over a stream -- the so-called
   commando's bridge. Another test requires applicants to reach a designated
   spot armed with only a map and without using any roads or encountering any
   people. The applicant's knowledge of topography is tested en route, and
   one of the exercises entails, for example, finding specific locations that
   have been marked by instructors. Applicants are often woken up in the
   middle of the night and given another route to complete. These first
   exercises are only a warm up, in addition to serving as an intelligence
   test.
   &lt; br&gt;"The selection process is primarily a test of character," says
   Cien-Maciejczyk.

   Cien-Maciejczyk became an instructor during his time in the GROM and now
   conducts his own selection courses. "Each one is different," he says. "A
   lot depends on the weather and the tasks assigned by instructors."

   This opinion is confirmed by Krzysztof Przepiorka, another former GROM
   officer. "Out of a group of 30 applicants, there were times when no one
   passed the selection process and was admitted to the GROM basic training
   course."

   In spite of this, on average, one out of every 10 applicants passes the
   test. Civilians Also Can

   The GROM's selection process was primarily developed on the basis of the
   British model.

   "After completing the process, only the best recruits are accepted into
   the unit -- individualists who share a great passion for the special
   forces," says Gen Petelicki.

   He adds that the s election process in the GROM continues even after the
   initial test. "First during training and then in combat operations. No
   mistakes can be concealed because human lives are at stake."

   Future GROM commandos are most often recruited from other military units,
   the police, or intelligence agencies. Even so, civilians can also apply to
   serve in Poland's most elite special forces unit. University graduates
   such as physicians and computer scientists are particularly encouraged to
   apply.

   (Description of Source: Warsaw rp.pl in Polish -- Website of
   Rzeczpospolita, center-right political and economic daily, partly owned by
   state; widely read by political and business elites; paper of record;
   often critical of Civic Platform and sympathetic to Kaczynski brothers;
   URL: http://www.rzeczpospolita.pl)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiri es regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   112) Back to Top
   Peruvian President Announces Cancellation of US Mining Firm's License
   "Peru announces cancellation of U.S.-owned miner's license" -- EFE
   Headline - EFE
   Thursday July 29, 2010 01:24:26 GMT
   (Description of Source: Madrid EFE in English -- Independent Spanish press
   agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   113) Back to Top
   Jbeil Church Renovated With US Heritage Aid
   "Jbeil Church Renovated With US Heritage Aid" -- The Daily Star Headline -
   The Daily Star Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 01:24:02 GMT
   Thursday, July 29, 2010

   BEIRUT: United States Ambassador Michele Sison and Minister of
   CultureSalim Wardy, toured a newly renovated church of Behdaidat in the
   area of Jbeilon Wednesday in a show of cultural collaboration between the
   two countries.The pair toured the 13th century church and viewed its many
   frescoes that havebeen restored to their former glory thanks to a
   contribution from the USAmbassador-s Fund for Cultural Preservation. The
   reconstruction work hasbeen conducted in partnership with the Culture
   Ministry-s Directorate ofAntiquities.The US Embassy contributed $44,000 in
   September 2009 to fund the project, whichis seen to be of grave cultural
   and touristic value to the region and it ishoped the renovation will
   reinvigorate the local economy as well as inc reasethe number of visitors
   to the site.'This project will preserve these local treasures for future
   generations,as well as provide an economic stimulus to the region through
   increasedtourism,' a US Embassy statement said. 'The Ambassador-s
   Funddemonstrates the United States- respect for other cultures-
   richtraditions by assisting in the preservation of culturally
   significantlandmarks, historical artifacts and oral traditions.'Since 2003
   the US has provided some $400,000 for cultural preservation projectsin
   Lebanon which has gone toward preserving the Ras-Nahel Khalwet
   religioussite in the Chouf Mountains and the Mubarakeh Tower in Tyre.It
   has also helped to revive the Hermitage of Mar Bichay at the Mar
   AntoniosMonastery in Ehden, a Roman-era temple in Temnin in the Bekaa, and
   thecannon-mounting sites and a 13th-century Crusaders- church on the
   Rabbitand Fanar Islands off the coast of Mina, near Tripoli.The US
   Ambassadors Fund is 10 years old and has helped to restore some 6 40sites
   of cultural importance across the world. - The Daily Star(Description of
   Source: Beirut The Daily Star Online in English -- Website of the
   independent daily, The Daily Star; URL: http://dailystar.com.lb)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
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   Commerce.

   114) Back to Top
   Experts See No Big US Arms Sales To Taiwan This Year
   Unattributed article from the "Taiwan" page: "Experts See No Big US Arms
   Sales To Taiwan This Year" - The China Post Online
   Friday July 30, 2010 01:53:23 GMT
   TAIPEI -- U.S. officials will defer any major new arms sales to Taiwan
   until at least 2011 as Beijing s teps up pressure on Washington, where
   mending Sino-U.S. ties is a priority, defense analysts say.

   Sales of anything more than minor parts or low end upgrades will wait
   until early next year, possibly much longer, letting Taiwan trail further
   in the balance of power against China but advancing relations between the
   two superpowers, analysts say.

   China has used stronger language and action this year, including the
   snubbing of U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, to deter arms sales to
   Taiwan, the self ruled and democratic island Beijing claims as its own and
   has threatened to take by force if necessary.

   Taiwan depends on its staunchest informal ally the United States for arms
   and wants new systems to keep up with China.

   The island says military strength is crucial even though the two sides
   have discussed trade and transit links since 2008 under China-friendly
   Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou after decades of hostilities, lifting local
   financial markets .

   A delay in getting new weapons systems would further tip a balance of
   power that already favors China, putting Beijing in an even stronger
   position to push any potential political resolution between the two sides.

   China is rapidly modernizing its military, putting particular emphasis on
   boosting its air force and navy. Taiwan says it has seen no sign of China
   removing missiles aimed at the island and estimates the number may rise
   from about 1,400 to as high as 2,000 this year.

   Yet U.S. President Barack Obama is seen focusing more on domestic issues
   and ties with China, the world's third-largest economy and holder of
   billions of dollars in U.S. treasuries.

   "It's a combination, the perfect storm," said Wendell Minnick, Asia bureau
   chief with Defense News. "You've got Obama dealing with domestic issues,
   you've got China ramping it up and you've got better Taiwan-China ties."

   Some analysts anticipate a brief resumption of arms sales in early 2011
   because Sino-U.S. contact normally dwindles at that time of year when both
   sides take holidays. But most expect Obama to defer the deals as long as
   China and Taiwan get along.

   "Given improvement in cross-Strait relations, Washington doesn't want to
   see any escalation of arms, so I don't think anything will come out of
   2011," said Raymond Wu, managing director of Taipei-based political risk
   consultancy e-telligence.

   Stuck in the pipeline are an upgrade to Taiwan's existing U.S.-made F-16
   fighter jets, six new cargo aircraft and an overhaul to a fleet of
   Lafayette frigates, Minnick said. Taiwan has also asked for 66 new
   later-model F-16s.

   Any of those deals would outrage China, which reacted angrily when the
   U.S. government approved a US$6.4-billion arms package earlier this year.

   Increasingly confident as its economic might grows, China postponed
   Sino-U.S. military exchanges and threatened sanctions against U.S. f irms
   that sell arms to Taiwan, although little has come of that threat to date.

   "China's words and actions are stronger compared to the past," said Niu
   Jun, a Peking University international relations professor. "It's not a
   new tactic but it's getting stronger."

   U.S. officials are coy about the timing of future arms sales, insisting
   that they do not consult China. But analysts say Washington listens
   attentively whenever Beijing makes noise.

   "When it all boils down to it, it is Chinese pressure and threats," said
   Rupert Hammond-Chambers, president of the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council.

   (Description of Source: Taipei The China Post Online in English -- Website
   of daily newspaper which generally supports the pan-blue parties and
   issues; URL: http://www.chinapost.com.tw)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. I nquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   115) Back to Top
   25 Years as An Executive in Korea - JoongAng Daily Online
   Friday July 30, 2010 00:47:44 GMT
   (JOONGANG ILBO) - Just two days before leaving the country in which he has
   lived for 25 years, William Oberlin, 66, former president of Boeing Korea,
   seemed quite calm. In an interview yesterday at the company's office in
   central Seoul, Oberlin didn't shed any tears, but instead pleasantly
   shared his fond memories of Korea and also his excitement at starting his
   retirement in Hawaii.

   "I think I've got everything done that I need to get done before I leave,"
   he said. "And I can do everything else that I wanted to do in Korea when I
   come back here (to visit), probably around Christmas time."Though Oberlin
   is originally from Texas, he considers Korea his second home, not only
   because his wife is Korean and he has family and friends here, but also
   because he's personally witnessed the country's modern history taking
   shape."Korea now is a very wired society, and to some degree, even more
   than the United States," he said, adding that Koreans can do more online
   than American citizens can."The United States is slowly trying to catch up
   to where Korea is, as far as broadband capability," Oberlin said. "Koreans
   use the Internet for just about all the daily functions that normally
   would have been thought of before as something done over the telephone or
   by filling out a form."The former executive did emphasize just how recent
   Korea's growth into an IT power was. He remembers vividly his first peek
   of traditional Korea, when he arrived at Gimpo International Airport in
   1985."I was a helicopter salesman for the Boeing Company, and we used
   Telex (automated telegrams) to communicate," he explained. "The first
   Boeing office opened in 1988 here in the Kyobo Building, and we had a
   Telex machine," a rarity at the time.Not very long after, around the early
   1990s, Korea began adopting the Internet and e-mail as business tools, and
   in no time, "Korea took off like a rocket and left countries like the
   United States behind."Oberlin also recalled the growing number of family
   cars on the streets, the modernization of the Seoul skyline and the growth
   in the number of Korean-American returnees."Until many years ago, you
   didn't see a lot of gyopos or Koreans who've been living overseas coming
   into Korea," he recalled. "Now, they're everywhere, and I think they add a
   lot to the country from a society and business point of view."One of the
   greatest improvements, Oberlin said, was the establishment of
   organizations run to promote business here, such as chambers of commer
   ce.Oberlin himself has held many roles that contributed to the Korean
   business community, including his two terms as chairman of the American
   Chamber of Commerce in Korea, from 2003 to 2004 and 2007 to 2008."One of
   the policies I wanted to ensure that Amcham followed was that whatever
   we're trying to do to improve the foreign business community should at the
   same time improve domestic Korean business," he said."We didn't really
   want to choose sides - it's not like us against them - but it's about
   improving the opportunities in many regards," he said.The most frustrating
   problem he faced at Amcham, Oberlin said, was the Korea-U.S. free trade
   agreement."It's not Korea's fault but the U.S." that the deal is not yet
   ratified, he mused. Nevertheless, Oberlin expects it to pass in six to
   eight months."There's a mechanism in the agreement that alleviates some of
   the concerns businesses hold," he said, calling the bilateral trade deal
   balanced , and fair. Oberlin also noted complaints from foreign businesses
   about Korean government regulation."What you need in a regulatory business
   environment is transparency so that it's fully understandable and
   comprehensible, but more than that, predictable," he said. "Businesses
   don't like unpredictability, as it means risk, and to a business, risk is
   money."What's troublesome in Korea today is probably the lack of labor
   flexibility," he said, calling it difficult to lay off workers, even
   temporarily, in lean times. To promote flexibility, Oberlin suggested the
   government help create a social safety net for workers to make sure they
   are taken care of until business picks up again.Oberlin is confident that
   "the Korean government is moving quite well in the direction of creating a
   social security net for laborers."(Description of Source: Seoul JoongAng
   Daily Online in English -- Website of English-language daily which
   provides English-language summaries and full-texts of items published by
   the major center-right daily JoongAng Ilbo, as well as unique reportage;
   distributed as an insert to the Seoul edition of the International Herald
   Tribune; URL: http://joongangdaily.joins.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   116) Back to Top
   Interior Ministry Defies LHC For Pleading Dr Aafias Case in US Court
   Report by Hamid Nawaz: Non-submission of documentary evidences: LHC seeks
   explanation from Secretary Interior Ministry - Business Recorder Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 07:05:34 GMT
   LAHORE (July 29 2010): The Lahore High Court (LHC) o n Wednesday sought
   explanation from Secretary Interior Ministry asking as to why the ministry
   failed to provide documentary evidences with regard to innocence of Dr
   Afia Siddiqui to the ministry of foreign affairs for the delivery to the
   US court.

   Earlier, a reply on behalf of Sohail Khan, Director General American Desk
   at the Ministry of Foreign Ministry was submitted in the court. The reply
   revealed that an official letter along with press clippings telling facts
   about the Dr Afia's case had been sent to Pakistani Ambassador Hussain
   Haqqani in the US. It said the ambassador would deliver the same to the US
   State Department and the court, which was going to announce its verdict in
   Afia's trial on August 16.

   Barrister Javed Iqbal Jaffrey, who filed contempt petition against the
   ministry, pointed out that the interior ministry had not given documentary
   evidences to the Foreign Ministry but relied on media reports only. He
   said the Interior Ministry did not follo w court's directions in letter
   and sprit. The court observed that it seemed the Interior Ministry had not
   taken solid steps to plead the case of Dr Afia before the US court.

   He directed the Interior Secretary to file reply by August 2 and explain
   his position in the case. Barrister Jaffrey pleaded that last month the
   court had directed the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to write an official
   letter to the trial court at the US district court of New York stating
   that Dr Afia Siddiqui was illegally kidnapped from Karachi in 2003 along
   with her three innocent children.

   He contended that Sohail Khan, Director General American Desk at the
   Ministry of Foreign Affairs had flouted court's orders due to influence
   and pressure and did not write a letter despite of several reminders. He
   sought contempt of court proceedings against the ministry's official.

   (Description of Source: Karachi Business Recorder Online in English --
   Website of a leading business daily. The gro up also owns Aaj News TV;
   URL: http://www.brecorder.com/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   117) Back to Top
   Article Says Gen Kayani's Objective, Goal, Loyalties for Country
   Article by Nusrat Mirza: "General KayaniEndorsement of Service Extension"
   - Jang
   Thursday July 29, 2010 07:38:16 GMT
   three-year extension to his service tenure. Nobody is surprised over it,
   for everybody knew that it would happen because of several reasons. The
   first is that Gen Kayani has a great role in the restoration of democracy;
   and the second is that Gen (retired) Pervez Musharraf played havoc with
   the image of the Army so much so that public emotions against the Army
   increased to the point of hatred. Gen Kayani, with extreme dexterity but
   patience and tolerance, restored the image of the Army. Then, he won
   popularity in Pakistan through taking control of Swat, Malakand, and South
   Waziristan, and also astounded the Western world.

   The people were raising an outcry before Swat operation that the Taliban
   of Swat were only 60-km away from Islamabad. This development sent a wave
   of concern to the West. They were thinking that Pakistan was trapped in a
   quagmire, and now it was about to slip from hands. The US military
   officers wanted to visit Swat and see for themselves whether it was really
   in Pakistan's control. They used to ask Gen Kayani how it had happened.
   They were told that it was our land. The people here are patriotic. They
   suffered troubles, but kept the Pakistani flag high.

   Similarly, the successes in Malakand and South Waziristan raised the
   importance of Gen Kayani in the eyes of the West and they started
   considering him a successful general. However, a sort of jealously crept
   in why the Pakistan Army succeeded and why they could not succeed in
   Afghanistan. They should know that they are occupying forces, and we have
   succeeded in our country. We are battling the terrorists with the help of
   our own people. Then, people had expected that he would be appointed chief
   of all three forces. Perhaps, it might happen in future.

   According to the confirmed sources, Lieutenant General (ret) Athar Ali,
   defense secretary general, and Lt Gen Imtiaz, Army Welfare director
   general, jointly prepared the summary of extension in his service tenure.
   Both these generals are childhood classmates of Gen Kayani. All three of
   them studied in the same school in Jhelum, whereas the successes of this
   taciturn general in Swat, Malakand, and South Waziristan were mentioned,
   several other concerns also came under discussion, like the judiciary m ay
   summon him in some case after his retirement. The suggestions given in
   this connection said that as the general, himself, was not desirous of
   extension in his service tenure. Therefore, his tenure should be extended
   for three years keeping his services in view. However, to make this
   extension honorable, it was thought he would be requested for extension
   through a parliamentary resolution. The cabinet should do so (request Gen
   Kayani) or (conjunction as published) the prime minister should announce
   this decision.

   The idea of extension through resolution was dropped on logical grounds.
   The cabinet approval was also not termed necessary. However, to keep his
   image intact, the prime minister gave an extraordinary importance to the
   issue of extension in his service tenure through a special announcement
   aired on radio and television.

   It is pertinent to mention that the US officials are impressed by the way
   Gen Kayani talks, his strategy, his continued success and his way of
   devising a military strategy as a good general. Gen McChrystal was quite
   close to Gen Kayani. However, considering the sensitivity of the
   situation, Gen David Petreaus, also, admits his importance. He also came
   to meet him. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has held a one-to-one
   meeting with him, during her recent visit and also supported extension in
   his service tenure and she even expressed so.

   However, it was thought here that the government would not extend service
   tenure of Gen Kayani if it were in its power. It is also being said that
   the decisive war against terror that is going to be launched in October
   will receive a serious blow if continuance of Gen Kayani is not
   maintained. Therefore, the incumbent g overnment had no options except to
   issue a notification of extension in service tenure of Gen Kayani in an
   honorable way. Now, after this extension in service, the year of
   retirement of Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry and Gen Ashfaq Per
   vez Kayani is the same. According to the prime minister, the tenure of his
   office and that of the president is also the same as that of the Army
   chief.

   There is no doubt that Gen Kayani has played an important role in
   promoting democracy. Had he not played his role, it was not possible to
   get rid of a tyrant ruler like Gen (ret) Pervez Musharraf. His plan of
   helping the PML-Q (Pakistan Muslim League-Qaid Azam) win and continue to
   be president, himself, would have succeeded. However, it is also a fact
   that Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kayani made no compromise on loyalty with the
   country and sanctity of his institution. He showed out this Gen (ret)
   Pervez Musharraf, who practically promoted Gen Kayani, for, that way, the
   institution of the Army was getting unpopular among the public and
   interests of Pakistan were at stake.

   That general was a strange man who was ready to sign any deal with anyone
   for his own interests. He permitted approximately 100 US officials to look
   for Usama Bin Ladin in Federally Administered Tribal Areas, and they
   formed Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). They turned this entire movement
   against Pakistan in three phases. First, their objective was to wage a war
   against the United States, which was a popular creed. Then, the war
   against the Pakistan Army was termed necessary as it was friend of the
   United States Third, since the Pakistani people were not supporting them,
   killing of innocent people was declared legitimate. Here, they were
   exposed and the Pakistani people united against them, and the war on
   terror was won. The Pakistani Armed Forces protected this country by
   offering sacrifices of blood and moved forward this strategy with
   steadfastness and perseverance. This led to the increase in the popularity
   of Gen Kayani in the country as well as abroad.

   Therefore, in that case, it should be kept in view that the objective,
   goal and loyalties of Gen Kayani are for the country, not for any person
   or a party. The refore, the government should now have some sense and
   should avoid resorting daily to immature attitude and lowly mannerisms. It
   should say good-bye whether it is the issue of accountability or fake
   degrees, tale of corruption or issue of maladministration or bad
   governance. It should gag the mouths of the shopping malls, shops,
   barrows, and purses of corruption, for a new chapter is about to start,
   now. The situation, circumstances and the Pakistani people will force the
   Pakistani institutions to bring back the plundered wealth. If justice
   rules here; if interests of the country are protected; if Pakistan's power
   is recognized, and foreign pressure is thwarted; if the government thinks
   about the Pakistani people's welfare and the corruption ends; if people
   get employment opportunities, prices come down, and peace and safety rule
   in Pakistan; there is a chance that the extension in Gen Kayani's service
   tenure will win endorsement.

   (Description of Source: Rawalpindi Ja ng in Urdu  The War, an
   influential, largest circulation newspaper in Pakistan, circulation of
   300,000. One of the moderate Urdu newspapers, pro-free enterprise,
   politically neutral, supports improvement in Pakistan-India relations)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   118) Back to Top
   Wikileaks Propaganda Harmful For Pakistan-US Alliance: Foreign Affairs
   Secretary
   Recorder Report: Wikileaks propaganda a malicious attempt to defame
   Pakistan - Business Recorder Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 07:16:47 GMT
   ISLAMABAD (July 29 2010): Secretary Foreign Affairs Salman Bashir on
   Wednesday condemne d the Wikileaks propaganda in strongest possible terms,
   terming it a malicious attempt to defame Pakistan before the international
   community.

   Talking to a select group of journalists on Wednesday, he said although
   the US administration disowned the allegations made against security
   forces and intelligence agencies of Pakistan for their roles in Afghan war
   and supporting Taliban, yet persisted that such propaganda tantamounts to
   defame government, security forces and intelligence agencies.

   The US administration must stop this propaganda which is damaging Pak-US
   alliance in war against terror. He said Pakistan has always gone by the
   book and never violated the UN Charter in last 60 years. He said we did
   not need any certification from anyone or dictation how to run security
   forces or intelligence agencies. "We all act in the best interest of our
   country and hold our own norms and values according to our religion," he
   added.

   Earlier, during procee dings of the National Assembly's PAC Sub Committee,
   he agreed to hold a ministerial meeting to formulate new rules for opening
   fresh accounts by government department with foreign missions abroad. He
   informed the committee that opening an account abroad by government
   departments was not a pre-requisite to obtain permission from the ministry
   of foreign affairs. But the Foreign Office was answerable to audit for
   such account, which was irrelevant.

   The PAC issued directive that all government departments would obtain
   formal permission from the ministry of foreign affairs and the ministry of
   finance prior to opening an account abroad for any purpose. In this
   respect, PAC directed to hold a meeting of the ministry of foreign
   affairs, the ministry of finance and the audit department to make fresh
   rules.

   (Description of Source: Karachi Business Recorder Online in English --
   Website of a leading business daily. The group also owns Aaj News TV; URL:
   http://www.brecorder .com/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   119) Back to Top
   Pakistani Press Takbeer 17-23 Dec 2009
   To request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735. - Takbeer
   Thursday July 29, 2010 07:42:06 GMT
   1. Saifullah Khalid

   claims that armed foreigners swagger anywhere at will. The country is an
   easy target of terrorism, and hundreds of innocent people have been killed
   in such activities; however, there is a new phenomenon which is more
   worrisome. A number of Americans have been caught moving in big vehicles
   with fake license plates in differen t cities. They behave arrogantly and
   refuse to be frisked. Such incidents have taken place in Islamabad,
   Lahore, and also near the Chashma nuclear plant. A Punjab minister says
   that they are on intelligence duty. It is a pity that they are let to go
   under diplomatic immunity, and law enforcers are taken to task for
   responding to the call of duty. All this is undesirable and should be
   condemned. (pp 9-11, 2,300 words)

   2. Najmul Hasan Arif portrays a gloomy side of Lahore. US personnel have
   now swarmed Lahore. In the guise of Blackwater, journalists, members of
   NGOs, or simply intelligence personnel, they strut anywhere in Punjab.
   They have taken photographs of all important installations in Lahore with
   impunity. The security staff on Egerton Road leading to the US Consulate
   witnesses unhindered movement of 8-10 such dubious vehicles everyday. Asif
   Zahoor, a Ravian, tried to frisk them, but was admonished and forbidden to
   indulge in such activities in the future. These elements have also been
   found to be active in Multan, Vehari, Bahwalpur, and surrounding areas.
   What do they do there? (pp 12-13, 2,000 words)

   3. Muhammad Qasim says that the CIA lies to Prime Minister Gilani,
   according to Rehman Malik. After the CIA admitted that like in Iraq,
   Blackwater was helping US forces in the war on terror, both the prime
   minister and Rehman Malik have been proved wrong, who, earlier, refuted
   even the existence of Blackwater in Pakistan. Three vehicles with fake
   license numbers in black against red, which is the norm for diplomatic
   vehicles, have been seen moving around. They are believed to target VIPs
   like Dr A. Q. Khan and to destabilize Pakistan with wanton suicide
   attacks. (pp 14, 600 words)

   4. Threats of terrorism during Ashura (10th day of Muharram) are likely,
   according to a Takbeer correspondent. Karachi seems to be wrapped up in
   fear as Ashura approaches. Sixty three mosques and 80 imambargahs (place
   where Shia Muslims gather to mourn the martyrdom of

   Imam Hussain bin Ali) in 13 areas have been declared highly sensitive, and
   law-enforcement agencies have taken extra measures to check any terrorist
   activity. CCTV cameras have also been installed at sensitive places. (pp
   18-19, 1,450 words)

   5. An article by Abu Jalal says that the Balochistan Government has been
   put to test and questions if it will cow down bureaucracy. The Pakistan
   People's Party has emerged as the biggest party in Gilgit-Baltistan, and
   Syed Mehdi Shah has rightfully become the chief minister of the new
   province. So far, bureaucracy had been virtually calling the shots, and it
   will be a big challenge for the new chief minister to deal with an
   unbridled bureaucracy. However, it can be expected that Gilgit-Baltistan
   will enter mainstream Pakistani politics and have its identity recognized.
   (pp 20-23, 2,850 words)

   6. An article by Abdul Hafeez Abid talks about the meaninglessness of the
   Balochistan Package. It i s strange that the man who has been called a
   murderer by the present government and who is also said to be responsible
   for the assassination of Benazir Bhutto is allowed to leave in dignity and
   with full honors. The Balochistan Package is meaningless and until and
   unless the murderer of Akbar Bugti is brought to book, Baluchis will not
   be satisfied. The popularity that the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz had won
   by leading the procession for restoration of judiciary is gradually
   declining. It should play the role of a genuine opposition and not a
   friendly opposition. Musharraf can, at least, be tried for his admission
   that he sold the country to the United States, if not for any other crime.
   (p p 24-27, 3,100 words)

   (Description of Source: Karachi Takbeer in Urdu -- "Chanting of God is
   Great," a weekly published by Afghan jihad veteran Rafiq Afghan. Carries
   religious and political content and criticisms of the United States,
   India, and the Pakistani Government. Circulation unknown.)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   120) Back to Top
   Mac Chairwoman To Speak On Ecfa In U.S.
   By Charles Kang and Fanny Liu - Central News Agency
   Thursday July 29, 2010 08:18:22 GMT
   Taipei, July 29 (CNA) -- Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Chairwoman Lai
   Shin-yuan is scheduled to visit the United States, where she will deliver
   a speech to a Washington-based think tank Aug. 4 on a landmark
   cross-Taiwan Strait trade pact, an MAC official said Thursday.

   Lai was invited by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) to deliver the
   speech on cross-strait relations in the wak e of the economic cooperation
   framework agreement (ECFA) with China that was signed June 29.The speech
   will be hosted by Gary Schmitt, a resident scholar at the AEI who is also
   director of the institute's Program on Advanced Strategic Studies.Lai,
   Taiwan's top China policymaker, will be the second Cabinet member to
   explain the ECFA in the U.S. Government Information Office (GIO) Minister
   Johnny Chiang also briefed several think tanks and media outlets in the
   U.S. early this month about the trade pact.In addition to her keynote
   speech at the AEI, Lai is also expected to talk about the ECFA during a
   speech to overseas Taiwanese representatives in Los Angeles Aug. 6, the
   MAC official said.The AEI said in its invitation that although signing the
   ECFA signifies improved cross-strait relations, there are still conflicts
   between China and Taiwan left unresolved, which is why it invited Lai to
   speak on the issue.(Description of Source: Taipei Central News Agency in
   English -- " Central News Agency (CNA)," Taiwan's major state-run press
   agency; generally favors ruling administration in its coverage of domestic
   and international affairs; URL: http://www.cna.com.tw)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   121) Back to Top
   Madrid to cooperate with Iraq death probe if judge requests it - EFE
   Thursday July 29, 2010 14:36:55 GMT
   Text of report by Spanish news agency EfeMadrid, 29 July: Justice Minister
   Francisco Caamano has said today that if National High Court Judge
   Santiago Pedraz - who has ordered the search and capture of the (US)
   soldiers accused over the death of the cameraman Jose Couso - requests
   international legal cooperation, his department will "of course" provide
   it."As we do with all judicial warrants, orders et cetera which judges
   decide must be processed through the Justice Ministry," Caamano added at a
   news conference to report on the agreement to transfer justice powers to
   Murcia (province in southeast Spain), on being asked about Pedraz's
   decision. He said the Justice Ministry respects the judge's decision and
   recalled that the Supreme Court recently agreed "there were elements" to
   support continuing the investigation and it therefore ordered the National
   High Court to reopen the investigation into the death of the Telecinco (TV
   channel) cameraman Jose Couso on 8 April 2003 in Baghdad (Iraq)."Judge
   Pedraz's decision is a decision taken in the exercise of jurisdiction and
   therefore in the exercise of his independence, which we must all respect,"
   he said.Pedraz ordered the search, captur e and imprisonment with a view
   to extradition of the three American soldiers accused over the cameraman's
   death and asked the General Council of the Judiciary (CGPJ) for
   authorization to travel to the scene of the events and conduct an
   inspection to investigate them.For their part, the journalists who
   witnessed the cameraman's death expressed their readiness to travel to the
   city together with the judge to show him in situ how the events took
   place.(Description of Source: Madrid EFE in Spanish -- Spanish
   semi-official independent news agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   122) Back to Top
   Spanish judge orders US soldiers' arrest over Iraq killing - EFE
   Thursday July 29, 2010 09:39:12 GMT
   Text of report by Spanish news agency EfeMadrid, 29 July: National High
   Court Judge Santiago Pedraz has ordered the search, capture and
   imprisonment with a view to extradition of the three American soldiers
   accused in the case of the death of the Telecinco (Spanish TV channel)
   cameraman Jose Couso on 8 April 2003 in Baghdad (Iraq).Legal sources said
   the judge also requested authorization from the General Council of the
   Judiciary (CGPJ) to travel to Iraq between October and November for a
   visual inspection of the scenes of the events.The Supreme Court ordered
   the National High Court to reopen the investigation into Couso's death, on
   the grounds that the military strategy known as "shock and awe" -
   consisting of actions like the bombardment of people and property
   protected in armed conflicts, like that which claimed Couso's life - is
   criminally attributable to those w ho direct those operations.(Description
   of Source: Madrid EFE in Spanish -- Spanish semi-official independent news
   agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   123) Back to Top
   U.S. Gov't, Congress Leaders Call For Revision of FTA With Seoul - Chosun
   Ilbo Online
   Friday July 30, 2010 01:31:15 GMT
   (CHOSUN ILBO) - U.S. administration and congressional leaders have called
   for a drastic revision of the U.S. free trade agreement with Korea since
   U.S. President Barack Obama set forth a guideline for concluding bilateral
   FTA talks before the upcoming G20 summit in Seoul in November.

   In a recent sp eech to members of the Communications Workers of America,
   Sander Levin, chairman of the U.S. House Committee on Ways and Means which
   oversees the Korea-U.S. FTA, called for revising the agreement. He
   reiterated the importance of improving access to markets of "all
   industrial products," including automobiles and beef.Levin said U.S.
   companies currently "cannot ship refrigerators into Korea" while Korea has
   "a completely open market" in the U.S.U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk
   Wednesday told reporters, "It's been no secret that the biggest number of
   complaints and concerns we've had about the Korean agreement were, in some
   people's minds, just the unacceptable disparity in market access for
   autos."He said imported cars account for less than 10 percent of the
   Korean auto market, adding that it is hard to accept the fact that Korea
   sells about 790,000 autos in the U.S. a year compared with a mere 7,000
   American cars shipped to Korea.Kirk also complained about Korea putting
   restrictions on imports of American beef, although the World Organization
   for Animal Health (OIE) has classified the U.S. as "a controlled risk
   country" for mad cow disease, meaning the beef is considered
   safe.(Description of Source: Seoul Chosun Ilbo Online in English --
   English website carrying English summaries and full translations of
   vernacular hard copy items of the largest and oldest daily Chosun Ilbo,
   which is conservative in editorial orientation -- strongly nationalistic,
   anti-North Korea, and generally pro-US; URL: http://english.chosun.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   124) Back to Top
   S. Korea's Industrial Output Grow s 16.9 Pct in June
   Updated version: "ADDS finance ministry's assessment of economic
   situations in 12-13 para" per 0103 GMT source update on 30 July; "ADDS
   details in 2nd para, other info from 4th para" per 0014 GMT source update
   on 30 July - Yonhap
   Friday July 30, 2010 01:55:27 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   125) Back to Top
   Tajik cotton blacklisted by USA - Asia-Plus
   Thursday July 29, 2010 08:18:17 GMT
   The USA has blacklisted Tajik cotton for the suspected use of child labour
   in its production, the Tajik weekly newspaper Asia-Plus reported on 21
   July.Cotton produced in Tajikistan was included in the "black" list of the
   USA for the first time, the report says.Tajikistan has sold 45,500 t of
   cotton, worth 66.4m dollars, to foreign states so far this year, the
   report says.Tajik cotton fibre was exported to Russia (28.4 per cent),
   Turkey (27.4 per cent), Iran (25.5 per cent), Ukraine (5.6 per cent),
   Moldova (3.1 per cent), Pakistan and Uzbekistan (2.4 per cent each) and
   Belarus (1.5 per cent), it says, adding that the average price of cotton
   fibre rose by 427 dollars compared to January-June 2009 and reached 1,459
   dollars per tonne.According to information from the Tajik statistic
   agency, the export of cotton from Tajikistan to the USA during the past
   six months of this year did not even reach 0.5 per cent of the c ountry's
   overall cotton export volume, the report says.(Description of Source:
   Dushanbe Asia-Plus in Russian -- Privately-owned sociopolitical weekly;
   launched in January 2000 by Asia-Plus media group; Chief Editor Umed
   Bobokhonov, who reportedly owns Asia-Plus media group)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   126) Back to Top
   No Software, No Future
   "Viewpoint" column by Lee Cheol-ho, an editorial writer of the JoongAng
   Ilbo: "No Software, No Future" - JoongAng Daily Online
   Friday July 30, 2010 00:43:42 GMT
   (JOONGANG ILBO) - Seoul National University's computer engineering
   department has been unable to fill its classrooms for six years.

   The biggest buzz words in the tech industry are definitely Apple Inc.. The
   company has enthralled consumers as well as investors. Its stock price has
   nearly doubled in just a year, topping Microsoft in the value of its
   market capitalization. Apple has become the irrefutable new alpha dog of
   the technology industry valued at over $200 billion, more than double what
   Samsung Electronics is worth.Apple has hit home runs three times in a row
   with the successes of the iPod, iPhone and iPad. In the accounting books,
   Samsung Electronics is ahead with double the revenue of Apple and better
   profits. Yet the Korean tech company's stock remains undervalued.Samsung
   Electronics maintains dominance in mobile phones and electronics hardware.
   It is the industry's most valuable player in semiconductors and liquid
   crystal displays. Its product designs are top notch. The company's new
   do-it-all handset Galaxy S with Android 2.1 software has become a
   formidable competitor in the smartphone shoot-out.But the stock market
   remains unimpressed because it doesn't have faith in the company's
   longer-term value due to its lack of a software edge. Investors are wary
   of how long Samsung Electronics can stay ahead in the fast-evolving tech
   industry without core software inventiveness. The staggering ascension of
   Apple is largely due to innovative software.Samsung Electronics cannot
   help but envy Apple and Google for their respective mobile operating
   platforms iOS and Android. It belatedly jumped onto the bandwagon by
   acquiring local operating system developer TmaxSoft. But tech pundits
   shook their heads. The software manpower in Korea is largely devoted to
   developing game and portal applications. There are few resources left to
   work on mobile open systems, insiders say.Fortunately, Samsung was able to
   run Android on Galaxy S phones for free. But no one knows when Google will
   start charging for its mobile operating system. The company also may
   demand exclusive use of Android on all Samsung phones. Being on the
   receiving end is always a place of insecurity and
   vulnerability.Smartphones are only the beginning of smart technologies.
   People are already talking about smart TVs and smart cars. Software will
   be the survival tool in the tech ecosystem from now on. Without its own
   software, no company will be able to remain competitive. Samsung and LG
   will one day wake up and find themselves serving as factory lines for
   foreign brands.We are not the only ones short of software manpower.
   Qualified and well-trained software manpower is hard to find everywhere
   except for the United States because most have been scouted by American
   multinational companies and lured by fat salaries and benefit plans.We
   have brought this zugzwang upon ourselves. Until 2000, computer
   engineering departments of top technology universities like Seoul National
   University and Kaist were the most popular among to p-tier high school
   graduates. In fact, these departments generated more than 300 high growth
   potential engineers.But now, computer engineering majors largely find jobs
   in small companies. Large companies prefer graduates with overseas degrees
   and software technology has long been snubbed. Software flagships NHN and
   NCsoft have stayed afloat in this widely neglected field.Seoul National
   University's computer engineering department has been unable to fill its
   classrooms for six years in a row and graduates from the three top
   technology universities with degrees in computer science number less than
   100 a year.Software is a field that thrives on distinct and intense
   talents, observes Kim Hyung-joo, professor of Seoul National University
   School of Computer Science and Engineering."In the operating system field,
   we don't need that many," he said. "Just 30 to 50 key members can make the
   differe nce. They must be equipped with high intelligence, educational
   background and ample experience."About 10 prodigies earn for 100,000 staff
   members in software companies like Apple, Microsoft and Oracle. Among the
   staff, many are from South Korea. They opted to go abroad on advice from
   their seniors who told them working at local companies was a poor
   prospect.The Korean software ecosystem has long been in danger. Under the
   current system, it can't last for more than six or seven years. We have no
   resources to challenge the infinite new world of smart technologies. We
   should take interest in the newest success stories. A few that hit the
   jackpot from software development can dictate the course of the
   race.Without excellent manpower, we have no hope in the high-end market.
   We will miss our opportunity to surf the future wave without a dedication
   to software. The face of Samsung Electronics' chief executive Choi Geesung
   does not look bright in spite of the company's record
   earnings.(Description of Source: Seoul JoongAng Daily Online in English --
   Website of English-language daily which provides English-language
   summaries and full-texts of items published by the major center-right
   daily JoongAng Ilbo, as well as unique reportage; distributed as an insert
   to the Seoul edition of the International Herald Tribune; URL:
   http://joongangdaily.joins.com)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   127) Back to Top
   Push in US for Taiwan To Enter ICAO
   Unattributed article from the "Taiwan" page: "Push in US for Taiwan To
   Enter ICAO" - Taipei Times Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 00:49:32 GMT
   PAGE:

   http://www.taipeitimes.com/Ne ws/taiwan/archives/2010/07/29/2003479096
   http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2010/07/29/20034 79096

   TITLE: Push in US for Taiwan to enter ICAOSECTION: TaiwanAUTHOR:PUBDATE:
   The resolution supporting Taiwan gaining observer status is expected to be
   passed by the US House of Representative's Foreign Affairs CommitteeBy
   William LowtherSTAFF REPORTER, WASHINGTONThursday, Jul 29, 2010, Page 3US
   Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen on Tuesday called on US President
   Barack Obama's administration to immediately push for Taiwan to be awarded
   observer status in the International Civil Aviation Organization
   (ICAO).(TAIPEI TIMES) - SAFETY: The resolution supporting Taiwan gaining
   observer status is expected to be passed by the US House of
   Representative's Foreign Affairs CommitteeBy William LowtherSTAFF
   REPORTER, WASHINGTONThursday, Jul 29, 2010, Page 3

   US Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen on Tuesday called on US President
   Barack Obama's administration to immedi ately push for Taiwan to be
   awarded observer status in the International Civil Aviation Organization
   (ICAO).

   Blaming China for working behind the scenes to keep Taiwan out of ICAO,
   she said: "The provincial and shortsighted manipulations of Beijing's
   leaders who seek to deny Taiwan international space cannot stand in the
   way of airport safety and security."Speaking on the floor of the House of
   Representatives as a resolution was introduced calling for Taiwan to be
   accorded ICAO observer status, Ros-Lehtinen said there was no doubt that
   Taiwan, which provides air traffic control services for more than 1.3
   million flights a year, needs to be part of the international organization
   responsible for air safety and security."This is especially true in a
   post-Sept. 11 world where security in the sky is of paramount importance
   to not only the American people, but to all across the globe," she
   said."It is time to bring to an end Beijing's petty parlor g ames of
   one-upmanship and humiliating slights in the running of international
   organizations," she said.Ros-Lehtinen added that if "the alleged thaw" in
   cross-strait relations was to have any true significance, it must and
   should begin in the meeting rooms of the ICAO and other international
   organizations."Those passengers, including our American citizens who
   travel on one of the almost 200,000 international flights headed to and
   from Taiwan each year, expect and deserve every protection than can be
   afforded," she said."The time to let Taiwan -begin to have constructive
   and meaningful participation in (the) ICAO is long overdue. The United
   States' State Department, as this resolution suggests, must assume a
   leading role to ensure this happens as quickly as possible," she said.The
   congressional resolution, which has now gone to the Foreign Affairs
   Committee where it is expected to pass, argues that Taipei has been
   impeded in its efforts to ma intain civil aviation practices in line with
   international standards because of its inability to contact the ICAO for
   up-to-date information.Nevertheless, "Taiwan has made every effort to
   comply with the operating procedures and guidelines set forth by the
   organization," the resolution says.It adds that the US government should
   take a leading role in gaining international support for the conferral of
   observer status to Taiwan in the ICAO and the US Department of State
   should provide briefings to, or consult with, the US Congress on all
   developments.(Description of Source: Taipei Taipei Times Online in English
   -- Website of daily English-language sister publication of Tzu-yu Shih-pao
   (Liberty Times), generally supports pan-green parties and issues; URL:
   http://www.taipeitimes.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be dir ected to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   128) Back to Top
   Three Zimbabwean Youths To Attend Young African Leaders Forum in US From
   3-5 Aug
   Report by Hendricks Chizhanje: "Zim Activists To Meet Obama" - ZimOnline
   Thursday July 29, 2010 12:33:36 GMT
   (Description of Source: Johannesburg ZimOnline in English -- Zimbabwe
   independent online news service, based in Johannesburg, critical of
   government: URL: http://www.zimonline.co.za/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   129) Back to Top
   US Agency Says Working With Local Communities in Zimbabwe To Fight
   HIV/AIDS
   Report by Caroline Mvundura: "US Body Helps Communities Fight HIV/AIDS" -
   ZimOnline
   Thursday July 29, 2010 12:33:35 GMT
   (Description of Source: Johannesburg ZimOnline in English -- Zimbabwe
   independent online news service, based in Johannesburg, critical of
   government: URL: http://www.zimonline.co.za/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   130) Back to Top
   PRC Holds Military Exercise in South China Sea 26 Jul; Pundits Blame US
   Actions
   By ZTS special correspondent Zhuang Jingqian: (Beijing Observations) Chi
   na Accelerates Blue-Water Drive Under External Pressure - Zhongguo
   Tongxun She
   Thursday July 29, 2010 16:04:31 GMT
   military training ground over the past week due to the effects of US-ROK
   military exercises and provocative US behavior on the South China Sea
   issue. According to the latest information, the Chinese Navy held a joint
   operations exercise involving the three major fleets in a part of the
   South China Sea on the 26 th. This, along with the military drills held
   earlier in the Yellow Sea, gave rise to a situation similar to a pincer
   movement. Observers in Beijing pointed out: The background to China's
   current naval exercises could not be clearer, namely, the need to
   "unsheathe the sword" to deal with external threats.

   According to CCTV reporting, the main combat ships of the People's
   Liberation Army's (PLA) East Sea, North Sea, and South Sea Fleets, such as
   the warships with hull numbers 171 and 116 and other modern warships with
   which the armed forces have been outfitted in recent years, all
   participated in the South China Sea exercise. The current exercise was the
   largest modern naval warfare exercise staged by the Chinese Navy since the
   PLA's founding. Not only did it effectively test the results of the Navy's
   modernization drive in recent years, but it also sent an important signal
   in the current complex regional environment. Chen Bingde, member of the
   Central Military Commission and chief of general staff; Wu Shengli,
   commander of the Navy; and other senior military officers observed the
   military exercise.

   While observing the combined live-ammunition drill involving actual troops
   from multiple branches of the Navy organized by the South Sea Fleet, Chen
   Bingde said emphatically: We should pay close attention to developments
   and changes in the situation and tasks and make sound preparations for
   military struggles. We must take practical steps to make military training
   a strategic priority, focus on developing a systemic combat capability,
   advance the profound transformation of military training, and further
   create an upsurge of military training.

   Experts on international issues in Beijing pointed out: The United States
   has recently initiated a new round of tactics in Asia to contain China by
   unfurling a virtual "maritime chain" in waters near China. Besides
   maintaining vigilance against being dragged into disputes deliberately
   provoked by the United States, China must pay attention to accelerating
   its blue-water drive and take the initiative to break through this virtual
   chain of siege.

   In fact, the US containment of China's rise in Asia has been a rather hot
   topic in the international arena over the past two years. Singaporean
   Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew, in a speech in the United States last year,
   advocated US engagement in Asian affairs to counterbalance China's m
   ilitary and economic power.

   The US emphasis this year on mapping out its strategic disposition in Asia
   to tighten control of the Asia-Pacific region and contain China is an
   important part of that effort.

   But these are different times. Tremendous changes have occurred in the
   environment in Asia and in the world at large. Although the United States
   is still the most powerful country, it cannot possibly return to the
   heyday of its global military disposition in the 1960s and 70s. Military
   hegemony is facing growing obstacles in the world.

   Some experts pointed out: Asia, particularly China, has always resolutely
   resisted US military hegemony. Every military provocation will only spur
   China to strengthen its military power. China is now in a crucial period
   of development. Its will to safeguard stability and peace has never been
   stronger. The United States' current provocative strategic disposition
   will only cause China to accelerate the development of its mil itary
   power, especially its blue-water military power, with even firmer resolve.

   It is reported that a naval flotilla comprising the "Zhenghe" training
   ship and the "Mianyang" missile frigate from the Chinese Navy will visit
   five South Pacific nations at the end of July, the first long-distance
   voyage in mixed formation. Observers pointed out: The Chinese military is
   accelerating its "blue-water" drive in response to changes in the
   situation. There will be more and more such moves.

   (Description of Source: Hong Kong Zhongguo Tongxun She in Chinese --
   PRC-owned press agency (China News Agency))

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   131) Back to Top
   Iranian Paper Says Secretary Clinton To Visit East Asia To Seek Allies
   Report by Faramarz Asghari: "Clinton's view on East" - Siyasat-e Ruz
   Thursday July 29, 2010 09:22:32 GMT
   (Description of Source: Tehran Siyasat-e Ruz in Persian -- conservative
   daily close to Ahmadinezhad; published by Ali Yusefpur, a member of the
   Islamic Revolution Devotees' Society (Jam`iyat-e Isargaran-e Enqelab-e
   Eslami); www.siasatrooz.ir)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   132) Back to Top
   People's Daily Online: Is United States Ready To Recognize China as World
   Power?
   By Zhang Xinyi, People's Dai ly Online: "Is US ready to recognize China as
   world power?" - Renmin Ribao
   Thursday July 29, 2010 09:12:06 GMT
   (Description of Source: Beijing People's Daily Online in English --
   Internet-only English version of Renmin Ribao, the daily newspaper of the
   CPC Central Committee. URL: http://english.peopledaily.com.cn)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   133) Back to Top
   DPRK Party Organ Criticizes US 'Deceptive' Advocacy of Nuclear Disarmament
   OSC plans to process the below Rodong Sinmun signed commentary as referent
   item; KCNA headline: "U.S. Deceptive Advocacy of 'Nuclear Disarma ment'
   Flayed" - KCNA
   Thursday July 29, 2010 07:25:52 GMT
   (Description of Source: Pyongyang KCNA in English -- Official DPRK news
   agency. URL: http://www.kcna.co.jp)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   134) Back to Top
   UN Command, DPRK To Hold 'Third' Round of Talks on 30 Jul
   Yonhap headline: "U.N. Command, N. Korea to Hold Third Round of Talks
   Friday" by Kim Deok-hyun - Yonhap
   Thursday July 29, 2010 07:18:48 GMT
   and North Korea will hold a third round of military talks Friday (30 July)
   ove r the sinking of a South Korean warship blamed on the North, the UNC
   said.

   "Representatives of the Korean People's Army and the UNC Military
   Armistice Commission will hold a colonel-level meeting in Panmunjom
   (P'anmunjo'm) tomorrow at 10:00 a.m.," the UNC said in a statement
   released Thursday.The talks were originally set for Thursday, but they
   were postponed after the two sides failed to reconfirm the date.The
   representatives first met on July 15 to discuss the sinking of the warship
   Ch'o'nan (Cheonan) and to arrange general-level talks.Confrontation
   continued, however, with Pyongyang denying responsibility for the sinking,
   while the UNC proposed a task force to jointly assess whether the sinking
   violated the armistice agreement that ended the 1950-53 Korean War.A team
   of multinational investigators concluded in May that a North Korean
   torpedo fired from one of its submarines sank the Ch'o'nan (Cheonan),
   killing 46 sailors.South Korean and U.S. forces on We dnesday wrapped up
   the four-day, large-scale military exercises off the South's east coast in
   a show of force to deter North Korea from future aggression.About 20 ships
   and submarines, including the 97,000-ton aircraft carrier USS George
   Washington, 200 aircraft and 8,000 personnel were mobilized for the
   "Invincible Spirit" exercises."These defensive, combined training
   exercises are designed to send a clear message to North Korea that its
   aggressive behavior must stop," Gen. Walter Sharp, commander of the some
   28,500 U.S. troops in the South, said in a statement released by the U.S.
   Forces Korea on Thursday.The drills also showed that South Korea and the
   U.S. "are committed to enhancing our combined defensive capabilities,"
   Sharp said.(Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial
   news agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cite d. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   135) Back to Top
   Pilot Error Blamed For F-5 Fighter Jet Crash in June - Yonhap
   Thursday July 29, 2010 06:35:16 GMT
   fighter jet crash-probe result

   Pilot error blamed for F-5 fighter jet crash in JuneBy Kim Deok-hyunSEOUL,
   July 29 (Yonhap) -- Pilot error, compounded by poor visibility due to
   heavy fog, caused a fighter jet to crash into the sea last month, Air
   Force investigators said Thursday.The F-5 fighter jet crashed into the sea
   on June 18 as it was returning to a base in the eastern coastal city of
   Gangneung, 237 kilometers east of Seoul, after a training mission. Two
   pilots on board were killed.The Air Force said there was "limit ed outside
   visibility" because of heavy fog at the time of the crash and that the
   pilots, about 6 kilometers from the runway, apparently did not notice that
   their fighter jet was approaching the sea."The investigation concluded
   that the pilots failed at their visual landing as they were landing
   through thick fog," an Air Force investigator said.Citing cockpit
   conversations in the final minutes before the crash and an examination of
   wreckage of the plane, investigators found no anomalies in the fighter
   jet's engine, airframe or electronic controlling systems, the Air Force
   said.The supersonic F-5 fighter, developed by Northrop Grumman of the
   United States, first flew in South Korea in 1975.South Korea plans to
   decommission all of its aging F-5 fighter jets by 2020. Currently, the Air
   Force operates about 170 F-5s.(Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in
   English -- Semiofficial news agency of the ROK; URL:
   http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the W orld News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   136) Back to Top
   Koreans in China Decry US-ROK Naval Exercises as Attempt to 'Ignite' War
   KCNA headline: "U.S. and Lee Myung Bak Group's Moves to Provoke Nuclear
   War Flailed" - KCNA
   Thursday July 29, 2010 05:46:39 GMT
   (Description of Source: Pyongyang KCNA in English -- Official DPRK news
   agency. URL: http://www.kcna.co.jp)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   137) Back to Top
   NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 117 (July 29, 2010) -- TOPIC OF THE WEEK (1 of
   6)
   Yonhap headline: "NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 117 (July 29, 2010)" - Yonhap
   Thursday July 29, 2010 05:24:37 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   138) Back to Top
   Court Bans LG Chem Scientist From Joining Foreign Rival - Dong-A Ilbo
   Online
   Thurs day July 29, 2010 04:47:56 GMT
   The Korean company is a leading manufacturer of rechargeable batteries,
   one of the nation's top 10 new growth engines.

   The Seoul Central District Court said Wednesday that it banned four LG
   employees from working at Enerland for up to 18 months after their
   resignation. Enerland is a subsidiary of the U.S.-based A123 Systems.

   LG had submitted an application to the court to ban six of its battery lab
   researchers from moving to other companies and leaking confidential
   information.

   In addition to the four employees, a former electrolyte developer and a
   director in charge of the battery production process already moved to
   A123. On the six former staff, the court banned them from leaking LG's
   business secrets or releasing them to a third party, including Enerland.

   A123 is a rechargeable battery maker established by alumni of
   Massachusetts Institute of Technology, or MIT. The company is LG's rival
   and once competed against LG in a battery supply competition.

   Enerland is a wholly owned subsidiary of A123.

   (Description of Source: Seoul Dong-A Ilbo Online in English -- English
   website carrying English summaries and full translation of vernacular hard
   copy items of the second-oldest major ROK daily Dong-A Ilbo, which is
   conservative in editorial orientation -- generally pro-US, anti-North
   Korea; URL: http://english.donga.com)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   139) Back to Top
   2nd LD Writethru: U.N. Command, DPRK Postpone Military Talks
   Xinhua: "2nd LD Writethru: U.N. Command, DPRK Postpone Military Talks" -
   Xinhua
   Thursday July 29, 2010 04:05:27 GMT
   SEOUL, July 29 (Xinhua) -- The third round of colonel-level talks between
   the U.S.-led U.N. Command (UNC) and the Democratic People's Republic of
   Korea (DPRK) has been postponed, the UNC said.

   The meeting, intended to discuss the deadly sinking of a South Korean
   warship in March, was tentatively due to take place on Thursday in the
   truce village of Panmunjom. But the two sides had failed to confirm the
   date.Further contacts between the two sides are underway to discuss a new
   date for the meeting, a UNC official told Xinhua.The DPRK has been blamed
   as the culprit for the sinking of the warship Cheonan, which took lives of
   46 sailors, after a multinational investigation concluded that the ship
   sank due to a torpedo attack from the DPRK. But it denies its
   involvement.At the last meeting, held on July 23, the UNC proposed a joint
   group to assess any armistice vio lations in the warship's sinking, and
   the two sides exchanged ideas and further details for convening the joint
   group, according to a UNC press release.The DPRK, meanwhile, urged the
   United States to unconditionally receive the inspection group dispatched
   by Pyongyang, saying "it was necessary to investigate the truth of the
   incident objectively and scientifically," DPRK's state-run KCNA said.The
   first round of such meeting after the Cheonan incident came on July 15,
   during which the two sides agreed to convene general- grade talks over the
   warship sinking.The U.S.-led UNC, which said it is charged with the
   enforcement and maintenance of the Armistice Agreement, has convened 16
   rounds of talks with the DPRK since the General Officer Talks forum
   between the two sides launched in 1998. However, the DPRK always insists
   that the "UNC" was unjust, and the so-called "United Nations troops" is
   just U.S. troops stationed in South Korea.The DPRK said it will send
   inspectors to South Korea to verify Seoul's claim after the probe results
   came out, but Seoul rejected Pyongyang's demand.(Description of Source:
   Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for
   English-language audiences (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   140) Back to Top
   Former Kamran Naval Base Airport To Serve International Flights -
   ITAR-TASS
   Thursday July 29, 2010 02:20:32 GMT
   intervention)

   HANOI, July 29 (Itar-Tass) -- The airport of Russia's former naval base
   Kamran in central Vietnam will serve international flights. The Vietnam A
   irlines Company will operate its first international flight to Kamran from
   Seoul, local media said.Russian air companies may start new regular
   flights to connect Central Vietnam with Russia's Far East and Moscow.The
   Kamran airport in Russia's former naval base became a commercial airport
   in May 2004. Five years later, as a new passenger terminal was constructed
   in 2009, the airport got a status of an international one.The new
   international air hub will give a strong impetus to the social and
   economic development of the region and will attract foreign tourists who
   come to enjoy sea resorts there.Russia's Navy left Kamran back in May
   2002. Vietnam announced that the Kamran Bay will no longer remain a
   military base, though both China and the USA had requested to rent it.
   Hanoi made a decision to transfer the "major citadel of socialism in Asia"
   of the "cold war" times into a tourist centre will most moderns
   infrastructures, and managed to do so quite quickly . The only object that
   keeps the memories of the base is the monument to Russian and Vietnamese
   military that died for peace and stability in the region.(Description of
   Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in English -- Main government information agency)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   141) Back to Top
   UNC Says 3rd Round of UN Command-DPRK Colonel-Level Meeting Postponed
   Xinhua "Urgent": "3rd Round of U.N. Command-DPRK Colonel-Level Meeting
   Postponed" - Xinhua
   Thursday July 29, 2010 02:11:26 GMT
   meeting between the U.S.-led U.N. Command (UNC) and the Democratic
   People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has been postponed as the two sides
   failed to agree on the detailed timetable, the UNC said.

   (Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news
   service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))

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   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   142) Back to Top
   ROK Activists in US to Voice Skepticism About DPRK Role in Ship's Sinking
   Updated version: Adjusting meta-data; Original headline: "In D.C., Liberal
   Civic Groups Get Cold-Shouldered" - JoongAng Daily Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 01:24:03 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul JoongAng Daily Online in English -- Website
   of English-language daily which provides English-language summaries and
   full-texts of items published by the major center-right daily JoongAng
   Ilbo, as well as unique reportage; distributed as an insert to the Seoul
   edition of the International Herald Tribune; URL:
   http://joongangdaily.joins.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   143) Back to Top
   GM's Volt May Be Coming to Korea - JoongAng Daily Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 01:24:26 GMT
   (JOONGANG ILBO) - GM Daewoo will consider launching its American parent's
   latest electric vehicle - the Chevrolet Volt - o n the Korean market next
   year, according to the local unit's President and Chief Executive Mike
   Arcamone.

   General Motors started receiving orders for the electric vehicle in the
   United States yesterday, when it also publicly released the retail
   price."We will bring a Volt demonstration fleet to Korea next year to
   examine consumer interest before deciding on the launch in the market,"
   Arcamone said in a release, while noting that the automaker will invest
   robustly in advanced vehicle engineering to spur the development of
   environment-friendly possibilities including hybrids."Chevrolet Volt is
   going to bring innovative change to the global auto market," he said.The
   U.S.-based auto giant is promoting the Volt as the industry's first and
   only electric vehicle with extended range capability. It runs on an
   electric motor with a gasoline generator capable of charging the battery.
   It cannot, however, run directly from a gasoline motor, which separates it
   f rom typical hybrids. GM puts the vehicle's range at about 500 kilometers
   (311 miles), with the first 60 kilometers powered by electricity stored in
   its 16-kilowatt lithium-ion batteries, and the next 440 kilometers with
   the generator powering the electric engine.The Volt will be sold in the
   United States to customers in California, New York, Michigan, Connecticut,
   Texas, New Jersey and Washington D.C. starting in November for a $41,000
   sticker price, though U.S. government tax incentives will bring that down
   to $33,500.(Description of Source: Seoul JoongAng Daily Online in English
   -- Website of English-language daily which provides English-language
   summaries and full-texts of items published by the major center-right
   daily JoongAng Ilbo, as well as unique reportage; distributed as an insert
   to the Seoul edition of the International Herald Tribune; URL:
   http://joongangdaily.joins.com)

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   source cited. P ermission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   144) Back to Top
   North Cyberattack Feared, Says Gov't - JoongAng Daily Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 00:54:35 GMT
   (JOONGANG ILBO) - The presidential office is on alert against a
   cyberattack by North Korea after receiving intelligence reports, the Blue
   House (ROK Office of the President) said yesterday.

   "The National Cyber Security Center (NCSC) obtained intelligence on a
   possible cyberattack from North Korea," Blue House (ROK Office of the
   President) spokeswoman Kim Hee-jung told reporters. A relevant team at the
   Blue House (ROK Office of the President) is on emergency alert footing
   from Tuesday in cooperation with the NCSC, she adde d.The possible
   cyberattack seems to be associated with the North's threat of a "sacred
   war" to retaliate against the large-scale joint naval drills between South
   Korea and the United States in the East Sea, which ended yesterday, she
   added.The Web sites of the Blue House (ROK Office of the President) and
   several other key government offices were hit last year and in recent
   months by a series of distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks, a
   massive number of access attempts, which are believed to have been from
   the communist regime.(Description of Source: Seoul JoongAng Daily Online
   in English -- Website of English-language daily which provides
   English-language summaries and full-texts of items published by the major
   center-right daily JoongAng Ilbo, as well as unique reportage; distributed
   as an insert to the Seoul edition of the International Herald Tribune;
   URL: http://joongangdaily.joins.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighte d by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   145) Back to Top
   Hidden Youth Unemployment - JoongAng Daily Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 00:50:36 GMT
   (JOONGANG ILBO) - Park Hyun-min, 29, wants to work in the human resources
   industry. He studied in the United States to improve his English and
   participated in numerous HR workshops. But Park sits in a Starbucks
   coffeehouse every day to scour job notices, but to no avail.

   "I wish I could get invited for a job interview just once," he said. "If
   only they would tell me what I'm doing wrong."Korea's young adults are
   struggling to land jobs despite an expanding economy and improving job
   prospects overall . Positions for young adults, those between 25 and 29,
   are dwindling. But excessive expectations and a surplus of highly educated
   young job seekers are compounding the problem, according to a report by
   the Samsung Economic Research Institute (SERI) released yesterday.During
   the first half of 2010, the total number of available jobs increased by
   283,000 from a year ago, but entry-level positions for young adults
   decreased by 34,000. In June, 313,000 jobs were added, but jobs for young
   adults fell by 85,000, the sharpest drop since October 2009.The SERI
   report suggests the situation is even more dire than it appears. "Though
   official statistics say that young adults without jobs make up 8.6 percent
   of those unemployed, the actual ratio is likely to be much higher," said
   Sohn Min-jung, head researcher at SERI and co-author of the report.The
   report took into account "discouraged job seekers," or those unemployed
   who are no longer taking any action to get jobs . Based on that
   calculation, it estimated that the jobless rate among young adults was 23
   percent."Unemployment among young adults can result in severe
   consequences, including reducing lifetime income in the long-term," said
   Park.There are two main reasons for growing unemployment among young
   adults, according to the report.First, there is a mismatch between
   business needs and university education in some cases. Those who gain a
   degree in education have a 89.3 percent chance of finding a job, but those
   with a degree in the humanities only have a 44.5 percent chance.Moreover,
   rising college attendance has inflated the sense of entitlement among
   young job seekers. The college attendance rate in Korea has jumped from
   33.2 percent of university-age youth in 1990 to 81.9 percent in 2009."To
   remedy this, creating more jobs is a given. But reforming the current
   education system so that young adults can gain a definite career plan and
   receive an education that fits th eir goals is necessary," said
   Park.(Description of Source: Seoul JoongAng Daily Online in English --
   Website of English-language daily which provides English-language
   summaries and full-texts of items published by the major center-right
   daily JoongAng Ilbo, as well as unique reportage; distributed as an insert
   to the Seoul edition of the International Herald Tribune; URL:
   http://joongangdaily.joins.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   146) Back to Top
   PRC Economy Unlikely To Bottom Out in 2010, but Growth Expects To Decline
   To request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735; or email: oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. -
   Liaowang
   Friday July 30, 2010 04:05:02 GMT
   (Description of Source: Beijing Liaowang in Chinese -- weekly general
   affairs journal published by China's official news agency Xinhua, carrying
   articles on political, social, cultural, international, and economic
   issues)Attachments:lw0726b.pdf

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   147) Back to Top
   China Leads the World in Urbanization: Blue Paper
   Xinhua: "China Leads the World in Urbanization: Blue Paper" - Xinhua
   Thursday July 29, 2010 16:14:09 GMT
   BEIJING, July 29 (Xinhua) - As China's urban population reached 46 percent
   of the total population last year, Chinese urban dwellers became the
   largest such population in the world, according to a 'blue paper' released
   on Thursday.

   By the end of 2009, China's urban population reached 620 million as both
   the annual birth rate and the total urban population became the world' s
   largest, according to "City' s Blue Book: China's Urban Development Report
   No. 3," which has been released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
   and the Social Sciences Academic Press.It said China's urban population is
   twice that of the population of the United States and one quarter more
   than the total population of 27 countries of the European Union.By 2015,
   urban residents in China will make up about 52 percent, and by 2030, 65
   percent of the total population in the country, it said."A milestone
   change for urban development will take place when urban people make up
   more than 50 percent of th e population and thus surpass the number of
   rural people," the paper said."The 50-percent point phenomenon will occur
   in the mid-12th Development Program period (2011-2015) when both the
   number of urban and rural Chinese will reach 680 million," it said.The
   role of the urban economy will be further strengthened by that time, it
   said, adding that the urban economy would continue to drive the domestic
   demand.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's
   official news service for English-language audiences (New China News
   Agency))

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   148) Back to Top
   PRC's CICIR Expert Says Sanctions Drive Iran's Nuclear Fusion Research
   &amp; quot;Short Commentary" by Tian Wenlin, associate research fellow at the
   China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations: "Offense as
   Defense" - Renmin Ribao Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 13:46:30 GMT
   If we look back at the nuclear gamble over the (past) few years, even
   though the United States has repeatedly (tried to) contain Iran's nuclear
   program, the level of Iran's nuclear research and development has
   continued to rise. It has created a nuclear program from scratch, and
   today it has even built an improved nuclear fuel cycle system. In this
   sense, there is not much benefit in using the sanctions approach to tackle
   Iran. On the contrary, it will be counterproductive. The fact that Iran
   has started nuclear fusion research is exactly a result of single-minded
   US and European pressure.

   For Iran, developing its nuclear program and other scientific research has
   become a "major policy guideline" involving national dignity and security
   strategy. It cannot possibly yield to economic sanctions. On the contrary,
   by continuing to intensify its blockade and sanctions against Iran, the
   United States can only force Iran to conduct independent research and
   development, even stimulating the growth of Iran's research and
   development capabilities to some extent.

   (Description of Source: Beijing Renmin Ribao Online in Chinese -- Online
   version of the daily newspaper (People's Daily) of the CPC Central
   Committee. URL: http://paper.people.com.cn)Attachments:rmrb0726iran.pdf

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   Commerce.

   149) Back to Top
   Uncertain Oil Supply May Become New Risk for World Economy: Standard &amp;amp;
   Poor's
   Xinhua: "Uncertain Oil Supply May Become New Risk for World Economy:
   Standard &amp;amp; Poor's" - Xinhua
   Thursday July 29, 2010 13:24:19 GMT
   BEIJING, July 29 (Xinhua) -- The uncertainty of energy supplies, in
   particular crude oil, might become a new risk for the world economy, a
   leading economist said Thursday.

   "We think there is enough strength to keep the recovery going. However,
   it's still fragile. There are things that can go wrong," said David Wyss,
   global chief economist of Standard &amp;amp; Poor's, a world leading rating
   agency."Leading possibilities right now would be another oil price spike,
   perhaps caused by geopolitical stress in the Middle East, or that we could
   get another freeze in financial markets, perhaps triggered by what's
   happening in South Europe," W yss said during a roundtable meeting with
   Chinese news media.Wyss said there are some signals showing that the world
   economy is cooling off a bit, but he thinks the problem is just a moderate
   correction."I do not see a double-dip recession," he said.Growth prospects
   for China's economy remains robust but some softening was expected in the
   coming quarter, largely on the back of problems in Europe, and stimulus
   measures in some developed economies, Wyss said.China, the world's third
   largest economy, expanded 10.3 percent year on year in the second quarter
   this year, slower than the previous two quarters, but the cooling down was
   considered good for economic restructuring.Meanwhile, David Peers, the
   global head of S&amp;amp;P's Sovereign and International Public Finance, said
   the impact of the euro zone crisis on China will be manageable."The first
   link is trade. Sluggish economic growth in the euro zone over the medium
   term suggests China's exports to the euro z one are likely to grow
   slowly," Peers said.Secondly, he said, Chinese banks have links with
   European banks, but China's exposure to the credit risks of those
   institutions and euro zone sovereigns is relatively modest.Wyss believed
   that China would face key constraints for a long time, including education
   and capital."China needs high saving rates to create capital and improve
   educational systems and graduation rates to sustain the country's current
   growth," Wyss said in a brief press release after the meeting.The
   economist predicted that the euro could be appreciated against the U.S.
   dollar by the end of this year, because the euro zone's situation is
   becoming stable.In addition, he said, some economies that hold big foreign
   reserves would buy back after heavy selling of the single currency during
   the recent sovereign debt crisis."On the other hand, the United States is
   still struggling from a huge trade deficit," Wyss said.(Description of
   Source: Be ijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for
   English-language audiences (New China News Agency))

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   Commerce.

   150) Back to Top
   More on China Denying Forcing Foreign Firms To Transfer Technology - AFP
   Thursday July 29, 2010 04:54:02 GMT
   that it unfairly forces foreign firms to transfer technology as the price
   of admission to its huge market, saying its policies were in line with
   world trade rules.

   "Countries around the world have taken a lot of measures to encourage
   technology innovation," a commerce ministry official, who declined to be
   nam ed, told AFP."The Chinese policies are in line with relevant WTO
   rules."The comments were in response to a US Chamber of Commerce report
   this week that accused China of abusing the allure of its vast market to
   push foreign companies to transfer their latest technologies to Chinese
   competitors.This was a "blueprint for technology theft on a scale the
   world has never seen before", it said.The chamber's report is the latest
   in a chorus of complaints by foreign businesses and governments over
   perceived unfair policies and market restrictions in the world's
   third-largest economy.US Trade Representative Ron Kirk joined the fray on
   Wednesday, responding to the chamber's complaints by saying Washington
   planned to push Beijing on the issue."That is going to be one of the top
   items that we continue to engage China on," Kirk told reporters in
   Washington.China committed at high-level Sino-US talks in May that its
   innovation policies would be non-discriminat ory, protect foreign
   intellectual property rights (IPR), and ensure open markets and trade,
   according to Washington.Beijing also pledged to leave the terms and
   conditions of technology transfer, production processes, and other
   proprietary information to individual enterprises, Kirk's deputy Demetrios
   Marantis said earlier this month.China launched its "indigenous
   innovation" campaign in 2006, officially to encourage the development of
   domestic technology and thereby reduce its reliance on foreign
   know-how.The commerce ministry official said the push did not discriminate
   against foreign companies and that IPR protection was "key to encouraging
   homegrown innovation"."China will further strengthen IPR protection,
   including that of foreign companies, exactly because we encourage
   homegrown innovation," he said.Tensions flared after Beijing issued rules
   late last year under the innovation campaign that were widely seen by
   foreign businesses as squeezi ng them out of the government's
   multi-billion-dollar procurement market.Concerns over indigenous
   innovation extended to security encryption rules, domestic patent laws and
   preferential policies for domestic companies, the US Chamber of Commerce
   report said.(Description of Source: Hong Kong AFP in English -- Hong Kong
   service of the independent French press agency Agence France-Presse)

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   Commerce.

   151) Back to Top
   WTO Backs China in Poultry Dispute With US - AFP
   Thursday July 29, 2010 04:05:27 GMT
   has ruled in China's favour in a dispute with the United States over
   imports of Chinese chicken, state media reported Thursday.

   China's commerce ministry has received the final ruling from the WTO,
   which is expected to come into effect soon and help open up the US market
   for China's finished chicken breast exports, the China Daily said."It (the
   final ruling) will be announced in one or two months, and the result is...
   China wins," the report said, citing an unnamed source within the
   ministry.A ministry official confirmed to AFP that China had received the
   WTO ruling, but declined further comment.Beijing says Washington is
   breaching international trade rules through several measures including an
   appropriations bill, which it says result in a complete ban on imports of
   Chinese poultry.The WTO set up a panel in July last year to examine the
   complaint following China's request.China and the United States halted
   imports of each other's poultry in 2004 over fears about the spread of
   bird flu.Imports of some US poultry products to China ha ve since been
   resumed but Chinese officials have complained that the United States
   continues to hold up reciprocal imports of Chinese poultry.China and the
   United States have been at loggerheads over a range of trade issues
   including a spat over China's currency, which critics say is kept
   undervalued by Beijing to give its exporters an unfair
   advantage.(Description of Source: Hong Kong AFP in English -- Hong Kong
   service of the independent French press agency Agence France-Presse)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
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   Commerce.

   152) Back to Top
   Further on China Denying Forcing Foreign Firms To Transfer Technology -
   AFP
   Thursday July 29, 2010 03:33:13 GMT&lt; /div&gt;
   that it unfairly forces foreign firm to transfer technology as the price
   of admission to its huge market, saying its policies were in line with
   world trade rules.

   "Countries around the world have taken a lot of measures to encourage
   technology innovation," a commerce ministry official, who declined to be
   named, told AFP."The Chinese policies are in line with relevant WTO
   rules."The comments were in response to a US Chamber of Commerce report
   released this week that accused China of abusing the allure of its vast
   market to push foreign companies to transfer their latest technologies to
   Chinese competitors.This was a "blueprint for technology theft on a scale
   the world has never seen before", it said.The chamber's report is the
   latest in a chorus of complaints by foreign businesses and governments
   over perceived unfair policies and market restrictions in the world's
   third-largest economy.US T rade Representative Ron Kirk joined the fray on
   Wednesday, responding to the chamber's complaints by saying Washington
   planned to push Beijing on the issue."That is going to be one of the top
   items that we continue to engage China on," Kirk told reporters in
   Washington.(Description of Source: Hong Kong AFP in English -- Hong Kong
   service of the independent French press agency Agence France-Presse)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   153) Back to Top
   China Denies Forcing Foreign Firms To Transfer Technology - AFP
   Thursday July 29, 2010 03:10:57 GMT
   that it forces foreign companies to tr ansfer technology as the price of
   admission to its huge market, saying its policies were in line with world
   trade rules.

   "Countries around the world have taken a lot of measures to encourage
   technology innovation," a commerce ministry official, who declined to be
   named, told AFP."The Chinese policies are in line with relevant WTO
   rules."(Description of Source: Hong Kong AFP in English -- Hong Kong
   service of the independent French press agency Agence France-Presse)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
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   Commerce.

   154) Back to Top
   RMRB Signed Article Refutes 'Theory of China's Economic Responsibility'
   Article by Guo Jiping: "Theory of 'China's Economic Responsibi lity' Is
   Irresponsible" - Renmin Ribao Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 03:17:28 GMT
   By Guo Jiping

   1.

   The ship of the world economy has sailed

   away from the storm and a ray of hope has emerged.

   What is inexplicable is that China, which has contributed enormously to
   saving the ship from capsizing, has once again become the target of
   criticisms by the politicians and media in some countries and the party
   held responsible for all kinds of problems. Even people who finally began
   to ask themselves "what China has done right" have relapsed into the old
   habit of asking "what China has done wrong."

   "The Chinese people save too much. They lend money to the United States at
   low interest rates, fueling a consumption frenzy and a housing bubble in
   the United States."

   "The renminbi is grossly undervalued. It should apprec iate at least 40%."

   "China's massive US bond holdings have given China a tool to control US
   domestic and foreign policies."

   "China will gobble up the energy of the whole world."

   "China sabotaged the Copenhagen climate change conference and is the
   biggest obstacle to global action on climate change."

   "If China does not adjust, it will be impossible to rebalance the world
   economy."

   It seems that every problem in the world economy was caused by China and
   that whether the world economy will recover also depends on China's policy
   measures. Not only must China be held accountable for the imbalance in the
   world economy, but it is also China's responsibility to rescue the world
   economy.

   The theory of "China's economic responsibility" is becoming another
   linguistic environment that China cannot but have to face.

   2.

   "Exchange rate responsibility," "surplus nati on responsibility,"
   "creditor nation responsibility," "savings nation responsibility," "major
   energy-consuming nation responsibility," "major carbon dioxide emitting
   nation responsibility."

   The theory of "China's economic responsibility" appears to be a rigorous
   system. There are signs that China is becoming a synonym for
   responsibility.

   If you examine it more closely, you will see that the various
   "responsibility" theories noted above are nothing new. But what are the
   facts?

   China has stabilized the renminbi's exchange rate at a fair and balanced
   level. That very fact alone is a positive contribution to the world
   economy. China has gone one step further by pressing ahead with the reform
   of the its currency exchange rate regime and increased the flexibility of
   its currency's exchange rate. By continuing to perfect its managed
   floating exchange rate system, China has promoted the essential b alance
   in the international payments and the stability of the financial market.

   China's trade surplus to a large extent reflects changes in the
   international division of labor and the trade structure. It is the result
   of the deepening of the division of labor in the world's industry, a
   process that took place under the auspices of the developed countries and
   against the backdrop of globalization. China does not pursue a trade
   surplus deliberately but instead is devoted to accelerating the change of
   its mode of economic development, including changing its mode of trade
   expansion and steering trade development in a direction that is balanced
   and sustainable.

   China is the United States' largest creditor nation. In fact, what people
   should worry about is "debtor nation responsibility," rather than
   "creditor nation responsibility," which is akin to turning things upside
   down. China is justified in caring about the security of its overseas
   assets and demanding that the relevant debtor nation keep its word and
   live up to its commitments.

   There are many countries in the world today that have fallen heavily into
   debt. These countries always consume and spend money ahead of time. When
   they go bankrupt, others who have worked hard and lived frugally get the
   blame. "The one who ruins the family fortune points the accusing finger at
   the good person." China's netizens surely have hit the nail on the head.

   On a per capita basis, China's energy consumption and CO2 emissions still
   rank rather low in the world. Still, China has taken forceful actions to
   deal with the energy and climate change issues. China aims to boost
   non-fossil fuels energy to about 15% of its total primary energy
   consumption by 2020, at the same time slashing carbon dioxide emissions
   per unit GDP by 40% to 45% compared with 2005.

   China long ago has plainly enunciated its principled stand on a string of
   major issues that affect the world's economic future. It has forcefully
   responded to the irresponsible theory of "China's economic responsibility"
   with responsible actions.

   3. A financial crisis that swept across the entire globe has thrusted
   China onto the front of the world stage.

   "Not only does China represent the future, but already it is representing
   the present." These words by Time magazine are most representative.

   China's critics have continued to ramp up their attacks on China with a
   mix of jealousy, misgivings, and fear. Severely battered by the crisis,
   some people's sense of superiority has taken a tumble. Witnessing China's
   outstanding performance in handling the crisis and its development
   potential in the post-crisis era, these people have become even more upset
   and have intensified their criticisms of China's "irresponsibility."

   The worst is now behind us and the world economy is seeking a new mode of
   growth and a new management structure. The reform now under way has
   touched the nerve of some countries that dominate the world economic
   system.

   For those people used to their big-spending ways who must now tighten
   their belts, pain is unavoidable. With public opinion souring, some
   politicians have scrambled to find a "scapegoat" to distract public
   attention.

   Those who cooked up the theory of 'China's economic responsibility" have
   an underlying motivation, which is to force China to follow their course
   of adjustment, comply with their standards, and take up more
   responsibilities so as to ensure the maintenance of their dominance in the
   international economic and financial systems. If China does not operate in
   accordance with these people's demands and standards, it will be labeled
   "irresponsible."

   4.

   Clearly it is unreasonable and unfair to blame China for all the problems
   in the world economy and impose on it the responsibility for resolving
   every contradiction.

   The theory of "China's economic responsibility" is a camouflage for the
   serious contradictions in the world economy today, especially the root
   cause of the crisis.

   The root of the international financial crisis can be found in an
   international economic and financial order that is unfair and unsound as
   well as the irresponsible financial and fiscal policies of a number of
   countries.

   The post-World War II international economic and financial system was
   created based on the desires and needs of a handful of developed
   capitalist countries. This system is now undergoing an epochal change. In
   the wake of the international financial crisis, successive G20 summits
   have taken steps to reform the management structure for the global
   economy. However, there has been no fundamental change to date to a
   management structure dominated by the developed countries or to the
   pattern of interests distribution.

   "The dollar is our currency but it is your (the world's) problem," There
   is no more candid way to describe the harm caused the world by the
   hegemony of the dollar than these "wise words" by John Connally, a former
   US Treasury secretary, back in the 1970's. Through its misuse of the
   dollar's hegemonistic position, the United States has objectively created
   a virtual economy and a bubble economy, which joined forces with the
   excessive consumption before the crisis, a financial and fiscal policy
   that relied on excessive borrowing, and an overly lax regulatory policy to
   create the international financia l crisis that spread around the world
   from Wall Street.

   To date the international economic and financial system's institutional
   flaws and systematic and structural risks have yet to be resolved. Making
   the international economic and financial systems fairer and global
   economic development more balanced is a joint responsibility for the
   developed countries and developing countries.
   5.

   The theory of "China's economic responsibility" reflects a tendency
   popular in recent years to overestimate China's power.

   When outsiders look at China, their frame of reference often is their own
   experiences. However, such experiences are one-sided. For instance, when
   they see that the supermarkets are stocked with more and more Chinese
   products, when they read reports in the media that go on and on about
   China's rapid economic development, or when they visit China and witness
   the forest of skyscrapers or the web of expressways, it is natural that
   people are awestruck. Some public opinion polls in the US even show that
   many Americans believe, erroneously, that China has overtaken the US in
   the total size of the economy.

   Some research institutions overseas base their China studies on the
   disciplines of quantitative statistics and data analysis as practiced
   under Western social sciences. Their research lacks in-depth studies and
   often is di vorced from the reality in China.

   All these observations of China are superficial. What people see is the
   fact that China has changed more rapidly in the past 30 years than any
   other country in all history. But they overlook that China's development
   is still ridden with a host of problems, some of which are unquantifiable.
   China has a huge population and a weak foundation. There is an imbalance
   between urban and rural developments. There are severe environmental and
   resource constraints. Employment pressure in society is enormous. There
   are still many poor people in China who have yet to shake off poverty.
   China is still a developing country.

   As long as these problems remain unsolved, China can only do what it is
   capable of. China cannot take up responsibilities that exceed its ability.

   6.

   A study by Morgan Stanley shows that Chinese products save US consumers
   $100 billion each year.

   China's development has created opportunities for the wor ld and furthered
   global progress, to the great benefit of developed countries such as the
   United States. If a nation raises questions about China's development even
   as it enjoys the dividend of China's development, in effect it is
   dismissing out of hand the development rights of 1.3 billion people.

   Jim Watson, a climate expert with the University of Sussex in Britain,
   said that European powers and the United States are anxious to capture
   world leadership in the present century on the strength of their economic
   prowess and their superiority in environmental protection science and
   technology, which explains why they appear to be perennial China critics.

   When it comes to the issues of energy, resources, and climate change, some
   people make demands on China using the criteria of developed countries,
   complain about China using too much energy based on their so-called
   calculations, and ignore the fact that China's energy consumption on a per
   capita basis is far less than that in the West. In so doing, these people
   in fact are betraying their own -held sense of moral superiority and their
   unspeakable ulterior motives deep down inside.

   The only way to make a fair assessment of China's economic responsibility
   and understand China's development is to respect China's development
   rights.

   7.

   Like other economies in the world, the Chinese economy has been hit hard
   by the international financial crisis. Clearly it is irresponsible to
   portray China simplistically as the "biggest winner" of the crisis.

   A shrinking foreign demand at one point caused China's foreign trade to
   decrease markedly, economic growth to slow, enterprise profits to fall,
   and social employment pressure to rise. The Chinese government wasted no
   time in adopting an economic stimulus package and the Chinese economy
   rebounded within a short period of time.

   China has adopted a proactive fiscal policy and an appropriately easy
   monetary p olicy. As a result, its economy was the first to turn the
   corner. In addition, it properly handled the relations among maintaining
   stable and relatively rapid economic growth, adjusting the economic
   structure, and managing inflationary expectations, and worked hard on
   increasing the sustainability of economic growth.

   China pursues a foreign trade strategy featuring a basic balance between
   imports and exports. It is a strategy that is based on expanding the
   domestic demand and spurring consumption. China is working hard to turn
   itself from "the world's factory" into the "world's market" to create
   external demand for the world and strongly support the stable recovery and
   balanced growth of the world economy.

   China is not pointing any fingers or trying to pass on any crisis onto
   others, let alone put up trade barriers. China is moving forward with a
   heavy responsibility on its shoulders, dealing with the crisis jointly
   with the other countries in the world. It has made important contributions
   to the stabilization and recovery of the world economy and projected the
   image of a responsible large country.

   8. History is a mirror. Mankind always seeks progress through
   introspection.

   In the course of the reform and adjustment of the international economic
   and financial system, it is even more imperative that those countries that
   are in a dominant position do some serious soul searching and take
   concrete action to set an example. In the long haul, any action that seeks
   to shift responsibility onto others will hurt others without benefiting
   oneself. It is short-sighted to plot and scheme for petty gains. Those who
   behave that way will only deepen the crisis.

   Right now the world economy is making a gradual recovery. Yet the
   foundation of the recovery is still fragile. To extricate ourselves from
   our plight, we must urgently continue to step up cooperation.

   By helping one another, the countries of the world have sailed away from
   the eye of the storm of the financial crisis. Now it is equally important
   that they help one another in pressing ahead with development that is
   strong, sustainable, and balanced.

   (Description of Source: Beijing Renmin Ribao Online in Chinese -- Online
   version of the daily newspaper (People's Daily) of the CPC Central
   Committee. URL: http://paper.people.com.cn)Attachments:rmrb0726econ.pdf

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   155) Back to Top
   China To Fund Mega Tourism Project
   CMC Headline: "BAHAMAS-TOURISM-China To Fund Mega Tourism Project" - CMC
   Thursday July 29, 2010 00:22:23 GMT
   The statement said that the diplomat, who is due to return here on 18
   August, will meet with Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham "to formally receive
   the approval of the Chinese Government". The ambitious complex had come to
   a halt more than two years ago when US casino operator Harrah's
   Entertainment pulled out. Initial plans for the two billion dollar mega
   project included the construction of a 3,000 room hotel, a 50-foot
   circular waterfall and 18-hole Jack Nicklaus championship golf course, and
   200,000 square feet of meeting space.

   The developers had said that the project would have resulted in creating
   11,000 jobs, including 6,000 permanent positions.

   (Description of Source: Bridgetown CMC in English -- regional news service
   run by the Caribbean Media Corporation)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright holde
   r. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.

   156) Back to Top
   Russian-US review of missile challenges to be finished by 2011 - official
   - ITAR-TASS
   Thursday July 29, 2010 20:57:23 GMT
   official

   Text of report by Russian state news agency ITAR-TASSWashington, 29 July:
   The Russian and US presidents' instruction to prepare a joint assessment
   of missile challenges in the 21st century must be fulfilled before the end
   of this year, Russian Deputy Security Council Secretary Vladimir Nazarov
   told ITAR-TASS after his working visit to Washington. He was the leader of
   an authoritative group of Russian experts who held another round of
   consultations on this subject at the Department of State the US National
   Security Council.The consultations began at the end of last year and this
   was the third round. According to Vladimir Nazarov, the parties already
   have "a common version of the joint report" which must be submitted to the
   presidents. The task is now to "broaden common ground", although some
   "fundamental differences remain, which we can not ignore and will have to
   record this in the joint document", Nazarov said.He said the report "is
   meant to be finished by the end of this year". "I think we will manage
   this," Nazarov said. In the remaining time, additional rounds of
   consultations can be held, if necessary, he said.Asked whether
   Washington's and Moscow's assessments of missile threats are similar,
   Vladimir Nazarov said that the USA "a priori do not like some regimes,
   irrespective of what technology they have and whether they have them at
   all". As for the Russian side, "today Russia does not see missile threats
   coming from so-called 'problem' or 'threshold' state s," Nazarov said.At
   the same time he stressed that Russia and the USA "have a basis for
   cooperation" in countering missile threats because "the prospect of
   threshold states acquiring missile and especially nuclear and nuclear
   missile potential is a threat to security in the whole world", including
   Russia. However, it will be possible to speak about practical steps by
   Moscow and Washington in this direction only after the joint report is
   adopted.Russia assumes that work "on neutralizing missile challenges" will
   "rely on political and diplomatic methods", Nazarov said."We assume that
   it is political and diplomatic means that can be used to prevent potential
   missile challenges turning into real missile threats," he
   said.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in Russian -- Main
   government information agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must b e obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   157) Back to Top
   : Treaty Procedures for Mobile Land-Based ICBM Inspections Flawed
   Article by Midykhat Vildanov under "Realities" rubric: "Blank Spots in
   START-3" - Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye Online
   Thursday July 29, 2010 19:43:12 GMT
   About the author: Midykhat Petrovich Vildanov is a major-general,
   professor of the Academy of Military Sciences, candidate of military
   sciences, and honored military specialist of the Russian Federation

   The State Duma has held parliamentary hearings to examine the START Treaty
   and the Protocol thereto with a view to preparing these documents for
   ratification. According to Konstantin Kosachev, head of the State Duma
   Committee for International Affairs, these documents have been subjected
   to a professional, meaningful, article-by-article discussion. The
   representatives of all factions had no complaints about the text of the
   treaty. But the parliamentarians nonetheless failed to receive answers to
   a number of questions that arose, and they have requested additional
   materials.

   A "group of wise men" comprised of former ambassadors and diverse experts,
   including people who were involved in preparing the previous START Treaty,
   has been enlisted in the work on the documents. "We intend to complete the
   work before the end of July," Konstantin Kosachev has said. It has to be
   assumed that special attention will be given to analyzing the content of
   Paragraph 14 of Section VI of Part Five governing the conduct of
   inspections of reentry vehicles (boyegolovka) emplaced on intercontinental
   ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (S
   LBMs). There it is recorded: "For a deployed ICBM or deployed
   SLBM...before the front section is viewed the inspected Party may cover
   reentry vehicles and other equipment, with individual covers.

   "In such a manner that the covers shall not hamper inspectors in
   ascertaining that the front section contains the number of reentry
   vehicles equal to the number of reentry vehicles declared for the deployed
   ICBM or deployed SLBM. Inspectors shall have the right to view such covers
   prior to their placement on the reentry vehicles. The inspection team
   shall conduct an inspection of reentry vehicles emplaced on a deployed
   ICBM or deployed SLBM as provided for in the Annex on Inspection
   Activities to this Protocol."

   It was emphasized during the parliamentary hearings that the START Treaty
   removes all discriminatory measures with regard to Russia's nuclear force
   grouping, particularly its mobile component. As far as the inspections of
   reentry vehicles em placed on the mobile land-based Topol, Topol-M, and
   Yars ICBMs are concerned, however, what manifests itself for the Russian
   side is the unilateral nature of their execution, inasmuch as the
   Americans do not possess missile complexes such as these. It is also
   appropriate to recall the Russian side's 15-year-long experience of
   support for the humiliatingly one-sided inspections of reentry vehicles
   emplaced on the mobile land-based Topol and Topol-M ICBMs conducted by the
   Americans within the framework of the "old" START Treaty. And it was only
   the termination of this treaty that prevented American inspectors
   inspecting the reentry vehicles emplaced on the mobile land-based Yars
   ICBM.

   The results of an analysis indicate that the Russian side will be
   compelled to adapt the "old" monitoring and inspection procedures for
   reentry vehicles emplaced on mobile land-based ICBMs to accommodate the
   new START Treaty, or to announce its refusal to conduct them . This
   conclusion is corroborated by the following arguments. UNPLANNED MARCHES

   Under the terms of the Protocol to the new treaty the Americans have the
   right to request the inspection of reentry vehicles emplaced on any
   self-contained launcher of any missil e regiment armed with mobile
   land-based Topol, Topol-M, and Yars missile complexes. The purpose is to
   ascertain that the self-contained launcher does not contain more than the
   declared number of reentry vehicles. Subsequently, in line with the
   procedure for conducting this inspection, the combat readiness of the
   self-contained launcher is lowered and a march to a maintenance facility
   (missile base) is prepared and undertaken. There, using specialized
   equipment and instrumentation, a sequence of technical measures is
   conducted on the missile and its front section, which are exhibited to the
   American inspectors.

   The missile complexes' design engineering and operating documentation
   makes no provision for t he execution of these operations at the missile
   regiments' permanent deployment locations, and it is categorically
   prohibited. The Americans are well aware of this. But because the missile
   regiments are located at some distance (5-60 km) from the missile base,
   the self-contained launchers of all missile regiments accomplished
   unplanned marches at the Americans' behest throughout the 15-year term of
   the "old" START Treaty. Moreover, the American inspectors rode in a bus
   right behind the self-contained launcher so as to preclude its turning off
   at a neighboring regiment, forest tract, or derelict structure, where
   Russia's strategic missilemen might secretly remove an excess (undeclared)
   reentry vehicle or switch the self-contained launcher.

   The missilemen have gotten used to this nonsense, but it continues to be
   viewed fondly by officials, the drafters of the previous START Treaty, and
   various experts, because they regard it as the apotheosis of openness, m
   utual trust, and transparency. Who -- one wonders -- are these "wise men"
   who devised and agreed to such an inspection procedure, and are they
   involved in the parliamentary hearings? OUR INEXPLICABLE SHYNESS

   For the missile division and missile regiment commander, implementation of
   the said procedures has entailed the disruption of combat training plans,
   unplanned engine use and fuel consumption, cancellations or deferments of
   servicing and maintenance for nuclear missile weaponry, the urgent
   preparation of routes of march, people, armament and military equipment,
   disruption of the personnel's daily routine, and so forth. It is essential
   to emphasize that undertaking marches with a self-contained launcher
   including missile and attached front section is classed as a particularly
   critical operation. In this context, there is no ruling out the occurrence
   of conditions conducive to road traffic accidents and technological
   emergencies, or departures from the r equirements of the nuclear and
   fire/explosion safety of nuclear missile armament, inasmuch as combat
   training programs make no provision for marches of this sort and personnel
   are not obligated to train for them.

   In certain regions of the Russian Federation where formations of mobile
   land-based missile complexes are stationed, threats of terrorist acts are
   periodically declared and different force majeure circumstances
   periodically arise that impact the safety and security of the organization
   of marches involving launchers. The principal leadership personnel of the
   army, division, and missile regiment are therefore mobilized for control
   and monitoring of the launcher convoy's preparation and march, and the
   entire system of command posts, from Strategic Missile Troops Central
   Command Post through to the missile division's command post inclusive,
   gets drawn into the process. This diverts the alert-duty personnel of
   command and control facilities from the performance o f their primary
   alert duty missions. Yars ICBM -- a missile of great interest to our
   Western partners

   Photo from

   http://www.kapyar.ru/ www.kapyar.ru site

   Upon the emergence of the self-contained launcher from its Krona
   installation, the American inspectors would examine the structure to
   determine that there was no second self-contained launcher in there,
   although this was technically impossible. Command and control of the march
   was conducted in line with the standard arrangements, a traffic control
   service was deployed, and the basic types of operations, technical, and
   logistic support for the march were implemented with the involvement of
   the local internal affairs agencies. It is entirely clear that the
   performance of measures to conceal the launcher's route no longer makes
   sense.

   On arrival at the maintenance facility the launcher occupied a special
   installation, and a set of technical measures was conducted on the missile
   and its front secti on, following which the Americans were allowed to view
   it. And when the American inspectors had departed, a substantial sequence
   of operations was performed to restore the specified temperature and
   humidity regime, accomplish the return march, and return the
   self-contained launcher to its original state.

   It should be stressed that the execution of the above-cited inspection
   procedures in a unilateral context, and moreover with the Americans riding
   along as part of the launcher convoys, has always been a source of
   exasperation for the strategic missilemen, and it adversely impacted
   morale. Unpleasant opinions have been voiced about the Soviet (Russian)
   negotiators and parties to the preparation and ratification of the "old"
   START Treaty. There is no doubt that the Americans have been able to
   familiarize themselves thoroughly with the Topol complex's specifications
   and performance characteristics that were being protected, and with the
   procedure for prepari ng, accomplishing, and supporting a march involving
   a self-contained launcher. Their growing interest in the Topol-M and Yars
   mobile land-based complexes -- which was confirmed during the
   Russian-American talks to prepare the new START Treaty -- is entirely
   natural. And it will manifest itself again, of course, during
   implementation of the treaty measures.

   A natural question, therefore: Why has the Russian side not availed itself
   of Article XVIII of the "old" START Treaty? Let me recall it: "Each Party
   may propose amendments to this Treaty. Agreed amendments shall enter into
   force in accordance with the procedures governing entry into force of this
   Treaty." And why was the content of the said prejudicial procedure not
   defined more precisely by Russia's representatives within the framework of
   the Joint Commission on Inspection and Compliance, which (from 1994)
   convened periodically in Geneva for a period of up to 30 days? WE MUST ACT
   LIKE THE Y DO

   According to information from the relevant Russian Federation agencies of
   state administration and military control, the specific procedure for
   inspections of reentry vehicles emplaced on Topol, Topol-M, and Yars
   mobile land-based ICBMs will be defined in the Annex on Inspection
   Activities to the Protocol, which is among the package of treaty
   documents. It is also being reported in this context that all the
   degrading monitoring and inspection procedures that occurred in the "old"
   START Treaty will be excluded. But permit me to have my doubts.

   In the specialists' estimation, the conduct of inspections relating to
   reentry vehicles emplaced on mobile land-based ICBMs and involving viewing
   of the front sections by the Americans at the missile regiments' permanent
   deployment locations (without a march to the maintenance facility) has not
   been fully formulated in technical respects for peacetime conditions. The
   missile regiments lack the installatio ns (there is no need for them) that
   meet nuclear safety requirements, as well as the specialized equipment and
   instrumentation designed for work with the front sections. There are no
   stipulations in the guideline documents and the combat and operating
   documentation governing the peacetime perf ormance of work such as this.
   But a special tent is required in order to screen the work done on the
   front sections outside the structure. And what is required all in all is a
   special decision from the missile complex's general designer, the
   inauguration and funding of experimental design work, and the revision and
   refinement of the design engineering and operating documentation. In terms
   of the Topol-M and Yars mobile land-based complexes, work such as this is
   both technically complex and dangerous, and conducting it in the interests
   of reentry vehicle inspections is inadvisable even at a maintenance
   facility.

   In this connection, the procedure for implementing Paragraph 14 of Section
   VI of Part Five concerning the conduct of inspections relating to reentry
   vehicles emplaced on mobile land-based ICBMs requires serious and thorough
   analysis involving representatives of the client, the Moscow Institute of
   Thermal Technology, the Russian Federation's nuclear weapons complex, and
   the interested main directorates of the Russian Federation Ministry of
   Defense. At the same time it would be necessary to propose a solution to
   the traditional problem of hard and soft covers.

   The conduct of inspections relating to reentry vehicles emplaced on mobile
   land-based ICBMs must be unequivocally excluded from the treaty
   procedures. In place of this it is essential to formulate an Agreed
   Statement or to provide the Americans with written guarantees from the
   Russian Federation's military-political leadership that the front sections
   of the mobile land-based ICBMs do not contain more reentry vehicles than
   the number declared. Incidentally, a similar example of a pragmatic
   approach by the American side already exists in the text of the Protocol
   to the START Treaty. So, the Americans have been able to secure the
   inclusion in the Protocol of a Second Agreed Statement that regulates for
   the Russian side monitoring of the nonconversion of four Ohio-class cruise
   missile-armed nuclear submarines to accommodate the Trident-2 SLBM. That
   said, the sea-based Tomahawk Block IV cruise missiles (each boat carries
   up to 154 missiles) are not being exhibited to the Russian inspectors.
   Furthermore, resolution of the problem of inspections of reentry vehicles
   emplaced on mobile land-based ICBMs is being allowed to take a "long
   voyage" by being referred to a bilateral consultative commission. But this
   has not yet been constituted.

   (Description of Source: Moscow Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye Online in
   Russian -- Website of weekly military newspaper published by Remchukov's
   Nezavisimaya Gazeta; URL: http://nvo.ng.ru/)
   &lt; br&gt;Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   158) Back to Top
   Russian Stock Market Posts Gains on Thurs Spearheaded By Transneft Shares
   - Interfax
   Thursday July 29, 2010 15:36:40 GMT
   MOSCOW. July 29 (Interfax) - The Russia stock market went up on Thursday
   following gains on world exchanges and oil prices while the euro increased
   against the U.S. dollar. The main advancer for the day was Transneft (RTS:
   TRNF).Benchmark stocks on the RTS Index went up 1.95% to 1,503.68 (after
   hitting a session maximum of 1,510,37 points) and 1.68% on the MICEX to
   1,418.35 points.Futures on the RTS Index dropped by 3.7 points a gainst
   the base assets, indicating a neutral mood among investors.The market
   leader for the day were prefs in Transneft, soaring 10.9% following a good
   financial report (according to Russian standards) for the first half of
   2010 and news that the state had reduced the stake of sellable shares in
   the company from 27.1% to 3%.Other advancers on the MICEX Stock Exchange
   were VTB (RTS: VTBR), up 1.5%, Gazprom (RTS: GAZP) - 2.3%, Gazprom Neft
   (RTS: SIBN) - 3.4%, MMC Norilsk Nickel (RTS: GMKN) - 1.7%, Lukoil (RTS:
   LKOH) - 0.5%, Rosneft (RTS: ROSN) - 1.7%, Sberbank (RTS: SBER) - 2.7%,
   Surgutneftegas (RTS: SNGS) - 1.8% and Tatneft (RTS: TATN) - 1.7%Posting
   gains on the MICEX Stock Exchange were IDGC Holding, up 5.7%, Inter RAO
   UES (RTS: IRAO) - 5.4%, TGK-1 (RTS: TGKA) - 3.8% and TGK-13 (RTS: TGKM) -
   2.5%.Posting losses were Diod, down 2.1%, PIK Group of Companies (RTS:
   PIKK) - 1.8%, Seventh Continent (RTS: SCON) - 1.2% and Uralsvyazinform
   (RTS: URSI) - 0.9%Total RTS Classic Trading for the day came to $12.939
   million, RTS Standard deal - $339.7 million and MICEX Stock Exchange
   transaction - over 46.535 billion rubles.Ih(Our editorial staff can be
   reached at eng.editors@interfax.ru)Interfax-950140-JLQWCBAA

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.
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  <doc>
    <id>842306</id>
    <title>Re: [Eurasia] TASKING - Secessionism in Europe
</title>
    <description>   Ok, and you can be in charge of that one.

   I was thinking about it, but thought that they've been pretty quiet since
   the 1970s.

   Elodie Dabbagh wrote:

     Maybe we should add Corsica to the list. There is definitely a
     secessionist movement there, even if the separatists have been pretty
     quiet recently.

     Marko Papic wrote:

       Updated list (Eugene, I tasked you to some of the regions Lauren
       proposed):

       Level I
       Italy - Aosta Valley  -- BENJAMIN
       Croatia - Serbian Krajina - MARKO
        Denmark - Faroe Islands - BENJAMIN
       Spain - Galicia - ELODIE
       U.K. - Northern Ireland - BENJAMIN
       Ukraine - Crimea - MARKO
       Serbia - Vojvodina - MARKO

       Level II
       Italy - Lombardy - BENJAMIN
       Bosnia - Western Herzegovina - MARKO
       Denmark - Greenland - BENJAMIN
       Finland/Sweden/Norway - Sami-land - ELODIE
       Spain - Basque Country - ELODIE
       Ukraine - Carpathian Ruthenia - MARKO
       Serbia - Sandzak - MARKO

       Level III
       Belgium (by which we mean both Flemish and Walloon regions, really the
       entire country) - ELODIE
       Cyrpus - Northern (Turkish) Cyprus - EMRE
       Romania - Szekler Land - ANTONIA
        Spain - Catalonia - ELODIE
       U.K. - Scotland - BENJAMIN

       Level IV
       Bosnia - Republika Srpska - MARKO
       Moldova - Transdniestria - ANTONIA
        Macedonia - Albanian region - EMRE
       Russia - Chechnya - MARKO
       Russia - Dagestan - MARKO
       Russia - Ingushetia - MARKO
       Russia - Kabardino-Balkaria - MARKO
       Russia - Tatarrstan - MARKO
       Russia - Bashkortostan - MARKO
       Russia - Adygea - EUGENE
       Russia - Karachai-Cherkessia - EUGENE
       Russia - North Ossetia - EUGENE
       Serbia - North Kosovo - MARKO
       Azerbaijan - Nagorno Karabakh - ELODIE
       Georgia - Adjara - EUGENE
       Georgia - Samtskhe-Javaheti - EUGENE

       Level V (secession over, violence still possible)
       Georgia - SOuth Ossetia - EUGENE
       Georgia - Abkhazia - EUGENE

       Marko Papic wrote:

         Ok, good call...

         Am re-sending the list with yours and Lauren's points.

         Eugene Chausovsky wrote:

           Can we include Nagorno Karabakh in this as well? I think this
           would be good for Elodie to take, since she is responsible for
           Armenia/Azerbaijan in morning digests anyway.

           I can take Abkhazia and South Ossetia, even though they have
           already seceded (possible stage V, as in completed?), but there is
           still violence there.

           Marko Papic wrote:

             Tasking on Secessionism in Europe:

             We need to assess via OS (which is why I am cc-ing monitors and
             watchofficers to this tasking) and via our sources the state of
             affairs of secessionist regions in Europe.

             There are four levels of secessionism as per weekly intelligence
             guidance
             (http://www.stratfor.com/node/167894/analysis/20100725_intelligence_guidance_week_july_25_2010):

             I.    Quietly Simmering - Yes, secessionism is an idea, but the
             region has no interest in pursuing it.
             II.    Simmering, but weak - Secessionism is more than an idea -
             if not the outright stated goal -- it is a desire, but the
             region has no means in pursuing it.
             III.    Active, but not explosive - Secessionism is the stated
             goal, but there is very little danger of violent uprising.
             IV.    Active - Secessionism is the stated goal and violence is
             potential means by which the country will pursue it.
             (the last two levels are really distinguished only by the factor
             of violence)

             Methodologically, we need five things:

             1.    Response to the ICJ Kosovo ruling. So for example the
             commentary by EP VP Laszlo Tokes (Hungarian from Romania) today
             would be something we are looking for. Same with Dodik's
             comments. Let's put all those together. Let's really search for
             any comments made by all the regions since the opinion was
             issued, and let's have the monitors increase their sensitivity
             to any comments (even if they're from a place like Northern
             Ireland) from this point forward.
             2.    An assessment of foreign backing for the region in
             question. So for places like South Ossetia and Abkhazia, this is
             obvious. What about Republika Srpska and the Albanians in
             Macedonia?
             3.    Popular support for secession. This becomes especially
             important in Western Europe. So let's look at polling data as
             well.
             4.    An assessment of the leadership (political and/or
             military) of the territory's secessionism.
             5.    Tasking sources in the region on how they perceive the ICJ
             decision and who is next.

             Breakdown of regions (plus who I want to get cracking at the
             information for the region):

             Level I
             Italy - Aosta Valley  -- BENJAMIN
             Croatia - Serbian Krajina - MARKO
              Denmark - Faroe Islands - BENJAMIN
             Spain - Galicia - ELODIE
             U.K. - Northern Ireland - BENJAMIN
             Ukraine - Crimea - MARKO
             Serbia - Vojvodina - MARKO

             Level II
             Italy - Lombardy - BENJAMIN
             Bosnia - Western Herzegovina - MARKO
             Denmark - Greenland - BENJAMIN
             Finland/Sweden/Norway - Sami-land - ELODIE
             Spain - Basque Country - ELODIE
             Ukraine - Carpathian Ruthenia - MARKO
             Serbia - Sandzak - MARKO

             Level III
             Belgium (by which we mean both Flemish and Walloon regions,
             really the entire country) - ELODIE
             Cyrpus - Northern (Turkish) Cyprus - EMRE
             Romania - Szekler Land - ANTONIA
              Spain - Catalonia - ELODIE
             U.K. - Scotland - BENJAMIN

             Level IV
             Bosnia - Republika Srpska - MARKO
             Moldova - Transdniestria - ANTONIA
              Macedonia - Albanian region - EMRE
             Russia - Chechnya - MARKO
             Russia - Dagestan - MARKO
             Russia - Ingushetia - MARKO
             Russia - Kabardino-Balkaria - MARKO
             Russia - Tatarrstan - MARKO
             Serbia - North Kosovo - MARKO

             My placement of regions in the categories is just my analytical
             guidance. We can update them as we find more about the current
             situation. Please get in touch with me if it is unclear what
             needs to be done.

             --

             - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

             Marko Papic

             Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

             STRATFOR

             700 Lavaca Street - 900

             Austin, Texas

             78701 USA

             P: + 1-512-744-4094

             marko.papic@stratfor.com

         --

         - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

         Marko Papic

         Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

         STRATFOR

         700 Lavaca Street - 900

         Austin, Texas

         78701 USA

         P: + 1-512-744-4094

         marko.papic@stratfor.com

       --

       - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

       Marko Papic

       Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

       STRATFOR

       700 Lavaca Street - 900

       Austin, Texas

       78701 USA

       P: + 1-512-744-4094

       marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --

   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

   Marko Papic

   Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

   STRATFOR

   700 Lavaca Street - 900

   Austin, Texas

   78701 USA

   P: + 1-512-744-4094

   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-07-26 23:49:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-18 22:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/842306_re-eurasia-tasking-secessionism-in-europe-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>watchofficer@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>rodger.baker@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>monitors@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>842625</id>
    <title>BBC Monitoring Alert - INDIA
</title>
    <description>    Indian official to discuss Afghan peace during 1-3 August Russia visit   
                                                                             
    Text of report by private Pakistani television channel Geo News website  
    on 31 July                                                               
                                                                             
    Peshawar [Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, formerly North-West Frontier      
    Province (NWFP)]: Rescue workers and troops in northwest Pakistan        
    struggled Saturday [31 July] to reach thousands of people affected by    
    the country's worst floods in living memory, as the death toll rose to   
    800.                                                                     
                                                                             
    Hundreds of homes and vast swathes of farmland were destroyed in the     
    northwest and Azad Jammu Kashmir (AJK) [Pakistan-administered Kashmir],  
    with the main highway to China reportedly cut and communities isolated   
    as monsoon rains caused flash floods and landslides.                     
                                                                             
    The United Nations said almost a million people had been affected by the 
    flooding, and at least 45 bridges destroyed around Khyber Pakhtunkhwa    
    Province.                                                                
                                                                             
    Television footage and photos shot from helicopters showed people        
    clinging to the walls and roof tops of damaged houses as gushing waters  
    rampaged through inundated villages.                                     
                                                                             
    Carrying their belongings and with children on their shoulders, some     
    even walked barefoot through the water to seek safety.                   
                                                                             
    "This is the worst-ever flood in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in   
    the country's history," provincial Information Minister Mian Iftikhar    
    Hussain said.                                                            
                                                                             
    "The death toll in floods and rain-related incidents has risen up to 800 
    across the province," he said.                                           
                                                                             
    Another 150 people were missing in the northwestern province, where many 
    impoverished families live in remote mountain villages.                  
                                                                             
    More than one million people have been affected, the minister said,      
    adding that more than 3,700 houses had been swept away by floods and     
    that the number of homeless people was rising.                           
                                                                             
    Peshawar and the districts of Swat and Shangla were cut off from the     
    rest of country as roads and highways were submerged, he said.           
                                                                             
    Police said five people were drowned when their boat capsized near the   
    northwestern town of Nowshera on Saturday.                               
                                                                             
    Hundreds of people were seen arriving in Peshawar, many of them without  
    any belongings.                                                          
                                                                             
    Muqaddir Khan, 25, who arrived with nine other family members, said in a 
    suburb of Peshawar that he had lost everything in flood.                 
                                                                             
    "I laboured hard in Saudi Arabia for three years and set up a small shop 
    which was swept away by flood in minutes. I have lost everything," Khan  
    said.                                                                    
                                                                             
    Razia Bibi, 48, said she and her family spent the night awake as water   
    kept rising.                                                             
                                                                             
    "My house is now gone under water and I could escape with a few          
    belongings," Bibi said.                                                  
                                                                             
    Authorities are using school buildings in Peshawar to shelter those      
    affected by the floods.                                                  
                                                                             
    The army said it had sent boats and helicopters to rescue stranded       
    people and its engineers were trying to open roads and divert water from 
    key routes.                                                              
                                                                             
    The flooding capped a week of tragedy for Pakistan, after an airliner    
    crashed into hills near Islamabad Wednesday, killing 152 people on       
    board.                                                                   
                                                                             
    Pakistan's weather bureau said an "unprecedented" 312 millimetres (12    
    inches) of rain had fallen in 36 hours in the northwest but predicted    
    only scattered showers during coming days.                               
                                                                             
    Provincial relief commissioner Shakil Qadir said the worst-hit area was  
    Malakand, where 102 people died and 16,000 were marooned because bridges 
    had collapsed and road links been cut. Qadir said that around 2,800      
    holidaymakers were stranded in the Swat valley. Efforts were being made  
    to airlift the holidaymakers to safety in helicopters, he said.          
                                                                             
    The Karakoram Highway, which links Pakistan to China, was closed as      
    rains washed away a bridge in Shangla District, also cutting off         
    Gilgit-Baltistan from other parts of the country, media reports said.    
                                                                             
    Northwest Pakistan has been hardest hit but monsoon rains have also      
    killed 25 people in the southwestern province of Balochistan over the    
    past few days, a senior officer of the disaster management authority,    
    Ataullah Khan, said.                                                     
                                                                             
    Flash floods had affected eight districts, he said, adding that around   
    275,000 people had been affected and more than 15,000 houses destroyed.  
                                                                             
    Source: The Telegraph website, Kolkata, in English 31 Jul 10             
                                                                             
    BBC Mon SA1 SADel FS1 FsuPol dg                                          

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2010
</description>
    <date>2010-07-31 14:49:06</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/842625_bbc-monitoring-alert-india-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>translations@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marketing@mon.bbc.co.uk</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>842993</id>
    <title>Re: [Eurasia] TASKING - Secessionism in Europe
</title>
    <description>   Let's get a status report by 3pm from everyone where they are with this
   project. I expect us to have some results.

   Thank you.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Elodie Dabbagh" &lt;elodie.dabbagh@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "EurAsia AOR" &lt;eurasia@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "watchofficer" &lt;watchofficer@stratfor.com&gt;, "rodger baker"
   &lt;rodger.baker@stratfor.com&gt;, monitors@stratfor.com
   Sent: Monday, July 26, 2010 4:59:07 PM
   Subject: Re: [Eurasia] TASKING - Secessionism in Europe

   The Front de liberation nationale corse (groups that say they are FLNC) is
   still pretty active. There are still many bomb attacks every year in
   Corsica.Politically, the separatists are also organized and have political
   parties. I'll work on this one.

   Marko Papic wrote:

     Ok, and you can be in charge of that one.

     I was thinking about it, but thought that they've been pretty quiet
     since the 1970s.

     Elodie Dabbagh wrote:

       Maybe we should add Corsica to the list. There is definitely a
       secessionist movement there, even if the separatists have been pretty
       quiet recently.

       Marko Papic wrote:

         Updated list (Eugene, I tasked you to some of the regions Lauren
         proposed):

         Level I
         Italy a** Aosta Valley  -- BENJAMIN
         Croatia a** Serbian Krajina a** MARKO
          Denmark a** Faroe Islands a** BENJAMIN
         Spain a** Galicia a** ELODIE
         U.K. a** Northern Ireland a** BENJAMIN
         Ukraine a** Crimea a** MARKO
         Serbia a** Vojvodina a** MARKO

         Level II
         Italy a** Lombardy a** BENJAMIN
         Bosnia a** Western Herzegovina a** MARKO
         Denmark a** Greenland a** BENJAMIN
         Finland/Sweden/Norway a** Sami-land a** ELODIE
         Spain a** Basque Country a** ELODIE
         Ukraine a** Carpathian Ruthenia a** MARKO
         Serbia a** Sandzak a** MARKO

         Level III
         Belgium (by which we mean both Flemish and Walloon regions, really
         the entire country) a** ELODIE
         Cyrpus a** Northern (Turkish) Cyprus a** EMRE
         Romania a** Szekler Land a** ANTONIA
          Spain a** Catalonia a** ELODIE
         U.K. a** Scotland a** BENJAMIN

         Level IV
         Bosnia a** Republika Srpska a** MARKO
         Moldova a** Transdniestria a** ANTONIA
          Macedonia a** Albanian region a** EMRE
         Russia a** Chechnya a** MARKO
         Russia a** Dagestan a** MARKO
         Russia a** Ingushetia a** MARKO
         Russia a** Kabardino-Balkaria a** MARKO
         Russia a** Tatarrstan a** MARKO
         Russia - Bashkortostan - MARKO
         Russia - Adygea - EUGENE
         Russia - Karachai-Cherkessia - EUGENE
         Russia - North Ossetia - EUGENE
         Serbia a** North Kosovo a** MARKO
         Azerbaijan - Nagorno Karabakh - ELODIE
         Georgia - Adjara - EUGENE
         Georgia - Samtskhe-Javaheti - EUGENE

         Level V (secession over, violence still possible)
         Georgia - SOuth Ossetia - EUGENE
         Georgia - Abkhazia - EUGENE

         Marko Papic wrote:

           Ok, good call...

           Am re-sending the list with yours and Lauren's points.

           Eugene Chausovsky wrote:

             Can we include Nagorno Karabakh in this as well? I think this
             would be good for Elodie to take, since she is responsible for
             Armenia/Azerbaijan in morning digests anyway.

             I can take Abkhazia and South Ossetia, even though they have
             already seceded (possible stage V, as in completed?), but there
             is still violence there.

             Marko Papic wrote:

               Tasking on Secessionism in Europe:

               We need to assess via OS (which is why I am cc-ing monitors
               and watchofficers to this tasking) and via our sources the
               state of affairs of secessionist regions in Europe.

               There are four levels of secessionism as per weekly
               intelligence guidance
               (http://www.stratfor.com/node/167894/analysis/20100725_intelligence_guidance_week_july_25_2010):

               I.    Quietly Simmering a** Yes, secessionism is an idea, but
               the region has no interest in pursuing it.
               II.    Simmering, but weak a** Secessionism is more than an
               idea a** if not the outright stated goal -- it is a desire,
               but the region has no means in pursuing it.
               III.    Active, but not explosive a** Secessionism is the
               stated goal, but there is very little danger of violent
               uprising.
               IV.    Active a** Secessionism is the stated goal and violence
               is potential means by which the country will pursue it.
               (the last two levels are really distinguished only by the
               factor of violence)

               Methodologically, we need five things:

               1.    Response to the ICJ Kosovo ruling. So for example the
               commentary by EP VP Laszlo Tokes (Hungarian from Romania)
               today would be something we are looking for. Same with
               Dodika**s comments. Leta**s put all those together. Leta**s
               really search for any comments made by all the regions since
               the opinion was issued, and leta**s have the monitors increase
               their sensitivity to any comments (even if theya**re from a
               place like Northern Ireland) from this point forward.
               2.    An assessment of foreign backing for the region in
               question. So for places like South Ossetia and Abkhazia, this
               is obvious. What about Republika Srpska and the Albanians in
               Macedonia?
               3.    Popular support for secession. This becomes especially
               important in Western Europe. So leta**s look at polling data
               as well.
               4.    An assessment of the leadership (political and/or
               military) of the territorya**s secessionism.
               5.    Tasking sources in the region on how they perceive the
               ICJ decision and who is next.

               Breakdown of regions (plus who I want to get cracking at the
               information for the region):

               Level I
               Italy a** Aosta Valley  -- BENJAMIN
               Croatia a** Serbian Krajina a** MARKO
                Denmark a** Faroe Islands a** BENJAMIN
               Spain a** Galicia a** ELODIE
               U.K. a** Northern Ireland a** BENJAMIN
               Ukraine a** Crimea a** MARKO
               Serbia a** Vojvodina a** MARKO

               Level II
               Italy a** Lombardy a** BENJAMIN
               Bosnia a** Western Herzegovina a** MARKO
               Denmark a** Greenland a** BENJAMIN
               Finland/Sweden/Norway a** Sami-land a** ELODIE
               Spain a** Basque Country a** ELODIE
               Ukraine a** Carpathian Ruthenia a** MARKO
               Serbia a** Sandzak a** MARKO

               Level III
               Belgium (by which we mean both Flemish and Walloon regions,
               really the entire country) a** ELODIE
               Cyrpus a** Northern (Turkish) Cyprus a** EMRE
               Romania a** Szekler Land a** ANTONIA
                Spain a** Catalonia a** ELODIE
               U.K. a** Scotland a** BENJAMIN

               Level IV
               Bosnia a** Republika Srpska a** MARKO
               Moldova a** Transdniestria a** ANTONIA
                Macedonia a** Albanian region a** EMRE
               Russia a** Chechnya a** MARKO
               Russia a** Dagestan a** MARKO
               Russia a** Ingushetia a** MARKO
               Russia a** Kabardino-Balkaria a** MARKO
               Russia a** Tatarrstan a** MARKO
               Serbia a** North Kosovo a** MARKO

               My placement of regions in the categories is just my
               analytical guidance. We can update them as we find more about
               the current situation. Please get in touch with me if it is
               unclear what needs to be done.

               --

               - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

               Marko Papic

               Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

               STRATFOR

               700 Lavaca Street - 900

               Austin, Texas

               78701 USA

               P: + 1-512-744-4094

               marko.papic@stratfor.com

           --

           - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

           Marko Papic

           Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

           STRATFOR

           700 Lavaca Street - 900

           Austin, Texas

           78701 USA

           P: + 1-512-744-4094

           marko.papic@stratfor.com

         --

         - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

         Marko Papic

         Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

         STRATFOR

         700 Lavaca Street - 900

         Austin, Texas

         78701 USA

         P: + 1-512-744-4094

         marko.papic@stratfor.com

     --

     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

     Marko Papic

     Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

     STRATFOR

     700 Lavaca Street - 900

     Austin, Texas

     78701 USA

     P: + 1-512-744-4094

     marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-07-27 14:24:16</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-21 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/842993_re-eurasia-tasking-secessionism-in-europe-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>watchofficer@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>rodger.baker@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>monitors@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>844650</id>
    <title>IND/INDIA/SOUTH ASIA
</title>
    <description>   Table of Contents for India

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   1) Visiting Indian official, Russian minister discuss security, Afghan
   situation
   2) India Starts Giving Deceiving Color to Kashmiris Movement to Malign
   Pakistan
   Report by Muhammad Saleh Zaafir: India initiates fresh anti-Pakistan
   drive in IHK
   3) Editorial Urges Rulers To Restore Confidence Through Transparency
   Editorial: "Transit Trade Agreement; Information Minister's Appreciable
   Stance"
   4) No Plans To Block Blackberry
   No Plans To Block Blackberry -- Jordan Times Headline
   5) Xinhua 'Backgrounder': Pacific Islands Forum
   Xinhua "Backgrounder": "Pacific Islands Forum"
   6) FEATURE: Swaziland Struggling in Appeal To Investors
   Unattributed article from the "Taiwan" page: "FEATURE: Swaziland
   Struggling in Appeal To Investors"
   7) Xinhua 'Interview': Chile To Further Explore Asian Tourism Market:
   Official
   Xinhua "Interview" by Luan Xiang: "Chile To Further Explore Asian Tourism
   Market: Official"
   8) Gov't Negotiator Says Taiwan Wants Bigger Role in Region
   Unattributed article from the "Taiwan" page: "Gov't Negotiator Says Taiwan
   Wants Bigger Role in Region"
   9) Various Countries Mark 'Korean People's War Victory Day'
   KCNA headline: "Korean People's War Victory Day Marked in Different
   Countries"
   10) Indian Security Forces Recover 20 Kg RDX From Rajouri District in
   Kashmir
   Unattributed report: "20 Kg RDX Seized in Kalakote"
   11) S. Korea's FX Reserves Top Record High in July
   Xinhua: "S. Korea's FX Reserves Top Record High in July"
   12) Six killed in Indian Kashmir as protesters target government buildings
   13) Zambian Government Delegation Visits India To Promote Business
   Unattributed report: Govt Delegation in India on Business Mission
   14) Survey Shows Hong Kong Youngsters Own Most Mobiles Across Asia
   Xinhua: "Survey Shows Hong Kong Youngsters Own Most Mobiles Across Asia"
   15) Airasia x Is Bringing Discount Fares to Korea
   16) ROK Foreign Reserves Hit Record High in July
   Updated version: replacing 2100 GMT version with source-supplied 2325 GMT
   update, which "ADDS more details in paras 3,7"; adjusting headline;
   adjusting topic tags; Yonhap headline: "(LEAD) S. Korea's Foreign Reserves
   Hit Record High in July"
   17) Heads of Russian, Indian space agencies, experts discuss cooperation
   18) Indian Company To Produce Vehicles in Myanmar
   Xinhua: "Indian Company To Produce Vehicles in Myanmar"&lt; /a&gt;
   19) EU Says Somali Pirates Hijack Panamanian Vessel With 23 Crew Members
   Onboard
   20) Pakistan Press Nawa-e Waqt 2 Aug 10
   To request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
   21) Militant Handlers Activate Network of Overground Workers in Kashmir
   Unattributed report: "Overground Workers Plot Terror in J&amp;amp;K"
   22) South Africa Considers RF Important Strategic Partner - Saul Molobi
   23) Taiwan's Negotiator Says Taiwan Wants Bigger Role In Region
   By Charles Kang and Maubo Chang
   24) Foreign Airlines Making Inroads Into Korea
   By Kwon Mee-yoo
   25) Airasia Joins Budget Airline Boom in Korea
   By Shin Hyon-hee
   26) RSA's Ambassador-Designate to Canada Admits to Involvement in
   Plagiarism Scandal
   Report by Mandy Roussouw: "New Envoy in Plagiarism Scandal"
   27) China Economic News in Brief: Harbin Auto Show; Jiangsu Aviation
   Sector; Jiangxi Exports; Beijing Tourism Figures
   Xinhua: "China Economic News in Brief: Harbin Auto Show; Jiangsu Aviation
   Sector; Jiangxi Exports; Beijing Tourism Figures"
   28) Qatari Paper Comments on Suspending Blackberry Services in Several
   Gulf States
   Editorial: "What Next After the BlackBerry Ban in UAE, Saudi?"
   29) Moldova Becomes First Country To Destroy Cluster Munitions
   30) UN Must Take Up Forgotten Kashmir Issue, End India Tyranny
   Article by Muhammad Farooq Rehmani: Kashmiris be Heard as Kosovo
   31) India-UK Business Collaboration Goes 'Green' at Camerons Initiative
   Commentary by Premila Nazareth Satyanand, writes on foreign direct
   investment issues; courtesy: UN Information Center, New Delhi: Climate
   Change in the U.K.-Ind ia Partnership
   32) Apple Daily: Taiwan Torn Between Two Powers
   By Lillian Lin
   33) Pakistan Article Says US Silence on Headley Issue Strengthen Indian
   Propaganda
   Report by Momin Iftikhar: Headley, LeT and the Indian spin doctors
   34) Commentary Voices Concern Over 'Attempt To Silence' Media in India
   Commentary by S. Viswanathan under the rubric Readers' Editor: Online
   &amp;amp; Off line : Attacks on Media on the Rise in India
   35) Pakistani Article Ridicules US Claim of Usama's Presence in Nation
   Article by Azim Sarwar: "Usama Is in Pakistan"
   36) ULFA Coordinating Fund Collection Drive in Assam Districts
   Report by Pullock Dutta: ULFA Pitches Tent on Island
   37) Govt Decides To Launch 24-Hour TV Channel for Rural Population,
   Farmers
   Report by Cithara Paul: 24x7 Channel for Farmer
   38) Assam Militant Group Leaders To Meet PM Singh To Discuss Autonomy
   Issue
   Report by Sarat Sarma: KLNLF To Meet Sonia, Singh
   39) Assam Militant Group Releases Abducted Pune-Based Forest Official
   Unattributed report: Bodo Rebels Free Pune Official
   40) Cameron Must not Learn Ropes of UK Foreign Policy at Pakistan
   Expense
   Article by Taj M Khattak: An Ill-advised Utterance
   41) Protests in Kashmir 'Almost Entirely Run' by Hardliners
   Report by Muzaffar Raina: Moderates in a Corner
   42) New Delhi Thinking to Release 200,000 to 256,000 Cusec Water Towards
   Pakistan
   Unattributed report: "India may release water towards Pak"
   43) Indian Air Force 'May Get' 6 Sea Planes for Security of Andaman,
   Nicobar Command
   Report by Sridhar Kumaraswami: "IAF May Get 6 Sea Planes"
   44) About 200 Russian Servicemen To Travel To India F or INDRA War Games
   45) Camerons Diatribe Against Pakistan: Daily Asks Zardari To Cancel
   His UK Visit
   Editorial: The Correct Responses
   46) New Delhi Assures Security to Railways Minister Mamata Against 'Any
   threat'
   Report by Subrata Chattopadhyay: "Pranab Assures Security for Worried
   Mamata"
   47) Probe Agency Arrests Maoist-Backed Group PCPA Member for Train
   Sabotage
   Unattributed report: "PCPA Member Arrested"
   48) IUML Cautions Muslim Youths Against 'Falling Prey' to 'Evil Forces'
   Unattributed report: Don't Fall Prey to Nefarious Designs of Evil Forces:
   IUML
   49) Indian Editorial Urges Political Response To Tackle Continuing Kashmir
   Violence
   Editorial: "Face the Challenge"
   50) West Bengal Govt Announces Relief Package for Maoists Willing To
   Surrender
   Report by Ananya Dutta: Rehabilitation Poli cy for Maoists Initiated

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   1) Back to Top
   Visiting Indian official, Russian minister discuss security, Afghan
   situation - PTI News Agency
   Tuesday August 3, 2010 05:00:01 GMT
   Text of report by Indian news agency PTIMoscow, 2 August: Bilateral
   issues, nuclear commerce, international security and the situation
   inAfghanistan figured prominently during the discussions Indian Foreign
   Secretary Nirupama Rao had with Russian First Deputy Foreign Minister
   Andrei Denisov on Monday (2 August).Rao, who arrived here on a three-day
   visit for regular consultations, met Densiov and discussed issues of
   bilateral interest.Rao's visit assumes significance as it comes just weeks
   after the International Conference on Afghanistan in Kabul, where both
   India and Russia opposed the involvement of Taleban in the Af ghan
   political process.Ahead of the Kabul meet, Russia had clearly echoed
   India's view that "there is no good or bad Taleban".It is presumed that
   Rao was also briefed on President Dmitry Medvedev's plans to hold a
   trilateral summit later this month with Pakistani President Asif Ali
   Zardari and Afghan leader Hamed Karzai.Rao and Denisov discussed
   international problems and ways to further advance the bilateral
   Indo-Russian strategic cooperation in the light of the decisions taken at
   the Moscow summit on 7 December 2009, an official statement said."The two
   sides stated the proximity of approaches of their nations on key
   international issues and reaffirmed their mutual intention to sustain
   regular bilateral contacts.They also agreed to jointly work in the
   international organisations and multilateral fora in the interest of
   global security and stability, effective response to the new challenges
   and threats and in the formation of a multi-polar world and a just eco
   nomic order," the statement said.No other details were immediately
   available about Rao's parleys in Moscow.(Description of Source: New Delhi
   PTI News Agency in English )

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   2) Back to Top
   India Starts Giving Deceiving Color to Kashmiris Movement to Malign
   Pakistan
   Report by Muhammad Saleh Zaafir: India initiates fresh anti-Pakistan
   drive in IHK - The News Online
   Monday August 2, 2010 11:33:42 GMT
   Islamabad: The Indians have officially initiated a fresh mudslinging
   campaign against Pakistan by giving deceiving colour to the peaceful
   movement of Kashmiri p eople and perpetrating the worst human rights
   violations in the occupied areas in the wake of recently concluded visit
   of British Prime Minister David Cameron to India.

   His reckless remarks have encouraged India to take on Pakistan. The former
   British foreign secretary and an expert on international affairs David
   Milliband has characterized his Premier as 'foul-mouth' after his
   loathsome remarks about Pakistan. It is heartening that Prime Minister
   Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani reminded his British counterpart while addressing a
   public meeting in Sargodha in the heart of Punjab on Saturday that it
   could have been pleasing Pakistan if the British prime minister talked
   about the human rights violations in occupied Kashmir while he was on the
   soil of India. Such assertions would have been close to justice if Kashmir
   had figured in the statement of the British prime minister.

   They again targetted Pakistan's national security institutions, which are
   engaged in checking Indi a's gross and criminal involvement in
   disseminating terror activities in tribal areas and Balochistan adjacent
   to international border with Afghanistan. Afghan president has once again
   started dancing on the tunes of Indians and West to blame Pakistan. He was
   expected to visit Pakistan in the outgoing week but he has to call off the
   trip. He sought refuge for many years in 80's and 90's here and developed
   links with the US and Western diplomats by sitting here.

   The diplomatic observers are of the view that the new campaign of the
   West, India and its stooge Afghan leader is not out of place. The Nato is
   bound to pack up from Afghanistan after failing in its designs and in all
   probabilities return journey would be started from next year. The big
   country currently engaged in Afghanistan is keen to stay back invisibly
   and for that it is preparing ground through the campaign that its allies
   have already launched against Pakistan. They are not expecting any
   resistance from the top of the political leadership in Pakistan but they
   are fearful of a role from the valiant Armed Forces of this country and
   the national security institutions, which have been souring the Indian
   eyes as well. All the forces, which have been after Pakistan's solidarity
   are now in complete synchronization to harm it by any manner. The flunkies
   of the adversaries of Pakistan, which are well fitted at certain places
   here, are also in joining hands with their foreign masters, the observers
   viewed.

   In the meanwhile India's notorious terror sponsoring-cum-intelligence
   gathering outfit Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) after failing in
   suppressing nonviolent campaign of Kashmiri people for their freedom in
   occupied territory has initiated a campaign to malign the struggle.

   Interestingly Indian Army Chief and puppet chief minister of the occupied
   parts of the state have already conceded that no so-called infiltration is
   taking place from across the line of control ( LOC). They have made the
   statement repeatedly and Pakistan's foreign minister in his remarks last
   month has made it clear that Pakistan would treat infiltration as
   terrorism. With this irresponsible comment he has conceded that freedom
   fighters are 'infiltrators.'

   The sources pointed out that RAW's mouthpiece online wire service has
   reported Saturday that "Violence in Kashmir is back and the Indian
   Intelligence Bureau's (IB) inputs suggest that external forces are once
   again fuelling the violence and that they have no plans of backing down.
   But this time, there's a change in the modus operandi. The ISI has
   specifically instructed the terror groups to target the security personnel
   by provoking them in the garb of stone-palters so they open fire on
   innocent civilians."

   Sources in the Intelligence Bureau told the so-called wire service that as
   per t heir intercepts, the ISI has specifically told groups such as the
   Laskhar to step up violence so that the attention of the world turns to
   Kashmir. There has been a lot of international pressure on these groups of
   late, and the recent WikiLeaks exposes have linked the ISI with terrorism.
   The IB says Kashmir is like a safe house for the ISI and whenever it finds
   itself on the back foot, it uses this issue to divert attention. The ISI
   feels that a large part of the international community still treats the
   Kashmir issue sympathetically. The new strategy was evolved after the
   Pakistan-based groups found it difficult to carry on as the sympathy
   factor among locals was missing.

   The IB says by provoking the security personnel into killing civilians,
   they hope that the mindset of the locals change completely. Indian IB says
   the ISI has a well-prepared force in place for Kashmir. The Lashkar
   comprises not just Pakistani Mujahideen, but also other ethnicities, like
   Arabs, Sudanese and Palestinians etc numbering 4500. Their job is to keep
   infiltrating into the Valley and create confu sion.

   The sources here pointed out that the concocted story has been fabricated
   just to malign Pakistan and its institutions since there is no reference
   of any official in it and version of the Indian government is also
   missing.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The News Online in English -- Website of
   a widely read, influential English daily, member of the Jang publishing
   group. Neutral editorial policy, good coverage of domestic and
   international issues. Usually offers leading news and analysis on issues
   related to war against terrorism. Circulation estimated at 55,000; URL:
   http://www.thenews.com.pk/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   3) Back to Top
   Editorial Urges R ulers To Restore Confidence Through Transparency
   Editorial: "Transit Trade Agreement; Information Minister's Appreciable
   Stance" - Nawa-e Waqt
   Monday August 2, 2010 09:55:10 GMT
   Minister Qamar Zaman Kaira clarified that India would not be granted the
   facility of transit trade until the resolution of Kashmir issue. Only the
   minutes of Pakistan-Afghanistan Transit Agreement have been signed, the
   agreement has not been entered into yet. The cabinet would give its
   approval.

   What does Federal Trade Minister Makhdoom Amin Fahim's announcement that
   he made on the occasion of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's recent
   visit to Pakistan, and the baffled statements that he made thereafter; and
   standing of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton behind the Afghan
   official when this Transit Agreement was being signed, mean?

   Qamar Zaman Kaira should respond to the questi on that what that agreement
   was actually all about? Was that not the US dictation? If India and
   Afghanistan want to conduct trade, they should do it through some other
   mean. The stance of Qamar Zaman Kaira that India would not be allowed
   transit trade facility until the resolution to the Kashmir issue is
   appreciable. However, what were the clauses of the agreement, which was
   signed in the presence of Hillary Clinton and if it is not an agreement,
   why is India and the United States declaring it to be their major
   achievement.

   The United States is by all means trying to impose India's dominance over
   Pakistan, and the incumbent rulers, for reasons unknown, are executing all
   orders of the United States. After seeing them flattering the US rulers,
   the Pakistani people can feel that the agreement that has been struck with
   Afghanistan would silently be approved in the cabinet meeting and the
   Pakistani people would be left watching this all helplessly.

   Therefore, the ru lers should present this agreement in the next National
   Assembly and senate session, and for people's awareness, the agreement
   with all its contents should be published in newspapers. Members of
   Senate, National and Provincial Assemblies should also wake up from
   slumber in this context, so that people can know why the US secretary of
   state was so anxious for signing of this agreement?

   The relation of trust between people and the government is weakening day
   by day. Democracy is the name of public trust on the government, but where
   is that trust? The rulers should pay more attention to this aspect.

   (Description of Source: Rawalpindi Nawa-e Waqt in Urdu -- Privately owned,
   widely read, conservative Islamic daily, with circulation around 125,000.
   Harshly critical of the US and India.)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may b e directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   4) Back to Top
   No Plans To Block Blackberry
   No Plans To Block Blackberry -- Jordan Times Headline - Jordan Times
   Online
   Tuesday August 3, 2010 01:27:40 GMT
   3 August 2010

   By Mohammad Ghazal AMMAN - There are no plans to block BlackBerry
   servicesin the Kingdom, telecommunications officials said on Monday. In
   light of newsreports that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are planning to suspend
   key BlackBerryservices over security concerns, the Telecommunications
   Regulatory Commission(TRC) said it has not received any complaints
   warranting such a move. "We havenot received any objection from security
   bodies&amp;amp;#1577; if we hear objectionsfrom security officials, then we
   will look into the issue and address thoseconcerns," TRC Chief
   Commissioner Fadi Kawar told The Jordan Times over thephone yesterday.
   "Even if Gulf states suspend these services, it does not meanthat we will.
   There are many technologies that we have been using for years inJordan
   that are banned in the Gulf," Kawar pointed out. A Saudi
   Arabiantelecommunications company on Monday said it has been ordered by
   the country'sregulatory authority to suspend key BlackBerry services,
   following similarmoves by the UAE, Agence France-Presse reported Monday.
   The UAE on Sunday saidit will block key features on BlackBerry smart
   phones, citing national securityconcerns as the devices operate beyond the
   government's ability to monitortheir use, the Associated Press (AP)
   reported. The ban, expected to beeffective as of October, will also affect
   foreign visitors, including thoseusing roaming services on foreign smart
   phones, AP added. BlackBerry data isencrypted and routed overseas, and the
   measure could be motivated in part bygovernment fears that the messaging
   system might be exploited by terrorists orother criminals who cannot be
   monitored by local authorities, AP said. Anexpert in the
   telecommunications sector, who asked not to be named, said alldata sent by
   BlackBerry Middle East users through BlackBerry Messenger,Internet
   browsing and e-mail services is sent to servers in the UK or
   Canadaaffiliated to Research In Motion (RIM), the maker of BlackBerry.
   "Providers ofBlackBerry services in a certain country cannot access this
   data, but RIM can,"the source explained. The source added that countries
   such as India and the UAEthat have decided to ban BlackBerry services took
   such measures as they cannotmonitor data. "Only RIM can monitor such data.
   However, there are agreementsbetween RIM and each service provider across
   the world stressing that RIMrespects the privacy and confidentiality of
   any data sent through BlackBerry,"the source added. Certain legal
   obligations prevent RIM from disclosing suchdata even if it sought to,
   according to the expert, who added that there havebeen no reported
   incidents of RIM servers being hacked. Mohammad Nasser, aBlackBerry user
   in Jordan, said he would rather have his information sharedwith
   authorities than lose his BlackBerry. "I do not care if the data I
   sendthrough my BlackBerry is monitored or not. I do not send any very
   personalinformation; I just use it for sending SMS's and sometime for
   checking e-mail,"Nasser, who works as a sales agent at an electronic
   appliance company, told TheJordan Times on Monday. Aya Mohammad, a
   community college student majoring inmarketing, said she became "anxious"
   when she read the news that the UAE hadbanned BlackBerry. "It is no one's
   business what I send on BlackBerry and toknow that everything else is
   monitored is shocking," the 20-year old studenttold The Jordan Times.
   BlackBerry services were introduced in Jordan in March2007. Orange and
   Zain currently provid e the services to thousands of users.3 August
   2010(Description of Source: Amman Jordan Times Online in English --
   Website of Jordan Times, only Jordanian English daily known for its
   investigative and analytical coverage of controversial domestic issues;
   sister publication of Al-Ra'y; URL: http://www.jordantimes.com/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   5) Back to Top
   Xinhua 'Backgrounder': Pacific Islands Forum
   Xinhua "Backgrounder": "Pacific Islands Forum" - Xinhua
   Tuesday August 3, 2010 01:22:31 GMT
   PORT VILA, Vanuatu, Aug. 3 (Xinhua) -- The Pacific Islands Forum leaders w
   ill meet in Vanuatu's capital Port Vila to attend their annual gathering
   scheduled on Aug. 3-6.

   The theme of economic development and addressing the needs of the Pacific
   island nations' most vulnerable has been set by the host nation.Trade, aid
   climate change, fisheries management, security are also set to be
   raised.The PIF, known until Oct. 27, 2000 as the South Pacific Forum, is a
   key political and economic policy organization in the Pacific. Forum
   leaders meet annually to develop collective responses to regional
   issues.The first PIF was held in 1971 in Wellington, New Zealand. The
   meeting was stemmed from a desire by leaders to address common issues from
   a regional perspective and to give their collective views greater weight
   in the international community.The forum's membership has increased from
   the original seven founding members (Australia, Cook Islands, Fiji, Nauru,
   New Zealand, Tonga and Samoa) to also include Micronesia, Kiribati, Niue,
   Marshall Islands, Pal au, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu and
   Vanuatu. Fiji was suspended from the Forum in May 2009, as it failed to
   meet the deadline of announcing a general election date.The PIF's agenda
   is based on issues raised by members and reports from the Secretariat and
   other regional organizations and committees. Decisions by the Leaders are
   reached by consensus and are outlined in a Forum Communique, from which
   policies are developed and a work program is prepared. The annual Forum
   meetings are chaired by head of the host country's government, who remains
   as Forum Chair until the next meeting.Since 1989, the Forum has held Post
   Forum Dialogues with key Dialogue Partners (PFDP) at ministerial level.
   The 14 PFDP members include Canada, China, the European Union, France,
   India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines,
   Thailand, Britain and the United States.The Forum's administrative arm is
   the PIF Secretariat, based in Suva, Fiji.The PIF held its 40th a nnual
   leaders meeting in Cairns, Australia.(Description of Source: Beijing
   Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for English-language
   audiences (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   6) Back to Top
   FEATURE: Swaziland Struggling in Appeal To Investors
   Unattributed article from the "Taiwan" page: "FEATURE: Swaziland
   Struggling in Appeal To Investors" - Taipei Times Online
   Tuesday August 3, 2010 00:57:19 GMT
   By Shih Hsiu-chuan

   STAFF REPORTER IN SWAZILANDTuesday, Aug 03, 2010, Page 3

   In the era of globalization, low production cos ts and various tax breaks
   are commonly used as incentives to attract foreign investors, but for
   Swaziland -- the smallest country in the southern hemisphere -- another
   factor, albeit one that is hard to quantify, has been proposed -- peace.

   "Never, since World War II, have we experienced any kind of war or
   threat," Swazi Minister of Economic Planning and Development Hlangusemphi
   Dlamini said in an interview with Taiwanese reporters visiting the country
   late last month."It is something that makes us proud as a country,
   something that we can say to the world, maybe if they come and invest and
   make Swaziland as a destination for Africa, a lot can be achieved,"
   Dlamimi said.Still, a drop in foreign direct investment (FDI) flowing into
   Swaziland in recent years has made some officials wonder if peace is not
   so much a strength as it is a weakness."There are opportunities for
   investors to invest in Swaziland and southern Africa ... but the main
   thing is people don't know about Africa and Swaziland," Swazi Minister of
   Foreign Affairs and International Co-operation Lutfo Ephraim Dlamini
   said.Swaziland is a very peaceful country, said Lutfo Ephraim Dlamini,
   formerly the minister of commerce, industry and trade, "but the problem
   is, the headlines are about war and fighting, so the peace that we have,
   the tranquility, has become our disadvantage."According to
   AfricanEconomic-Outlook.org, which combines experts from the African
   Development Band and other agencies providing data and analysis of 50
   African economies, says Swaziland has been adversely affected by the
   global economic slowdown, as its economy is closely linked to South
   Africa.Investment in Swaziland went down in real terms from 20.1 percent
   of GDP in 2002 to 11.4 percent in 2008 and 10.6 percent last year, the
   research body said.Hlangusemphi Dlamini attributed the decline to the
   sharp appreciation of the South African rand -- which the Swazi currenc y,
   the lilangeni, is pegged to -- since 2002."These are things that no one
   can control," Hlangusemphi Dlamini said.With a gradual recovery in the
   global economy, the Swazi government is trying to highlight its relatively
   favorable investment climate compared with other countries in Sub-Saharan
   Africa, with whom Swaziland shares development challenges.Pointing to
   South Africa-based Taiwanese textile and apparel manufacturers that will
   be looking at possible investments in Swaziland this month amid concerns
   over crime in South Africa, Ambassador to Swaziland Peter Tsai said that
   peace was a characteristic that had strong appeal with foreign
   investors.Swaziland's characterization as a "safe and secure" location for
   business, families and property is a clear advantage over other African
   countries, he said.Another distinguishing feature of Swaziland in terms of
   investment promotion policy is that it allows full repatriation of profits
   and dividends of enterpri ses operating in the country, Tsai said."Not
   many African countries adopt the measure, mostly because of limited
   foreign exchange reserves. However, this is not a case in Swaziland," Tsai
   said, adding that Swaziland has sufficient foreign exchange reserves to
   sustain a liberalized foreign exchange mechanism.Lutfo Ephraim Dlamini
   said the policy was guided by the view in Swaziland that "we believe in
   this country. You invest your money. You make profits and you are able to
   take the profits away."According to the latest WTO Trade Policy Review on
   Swaziland published in November last year, FDI inflow in Swaziland fell
   drastically from about US$67 million between 1990 and 2000 to
   approximately US$6.6 million between 2003 and 2007.Swaziland statistics
   showed that 8 percent of its commercial industry came from Taiwan.At
   present, 25 Taiwanese factories operate in Swaziland, mostly textile and
   garment manufacturers, with an aggregate investment of more than US$90
   million, employing about 15,000 people out of a population of 1.35
   million, with an unemployment rate of about 40 percent.Like other
   governments, Swaziland offers a series of tax deductions to foreign
   investors, but one of the incentives Taiwanese businesspeople investing in
   Swaziland find most attractive is that most exports enjoy duty-free access
   to the US, the EU, as well as the Southern African Development Community
   and the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa.Swaziland also
   became a signatory to the preferential trade agreement between the
   Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) and MERCUSOR, the Latin American
   common market composed of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, last
   year.However, the past decade has seen emerging concerns over gradual
   losses in preferential treatment granted to foreign manufacturers in
   African countries.Mason Ma, director and vice president of Tex-Ray
   Industrial Co, which produces dyed yarns, woven fabrics and garments, said
   he wo rried about the expiration in 2015 of the African Growth and
   Opportunity Act (AGOA), a US trade act that provides duty-free treatment
   for select apparel articles made in some Sub-Saharan African countries."We
   suffered a blow following the removal of quotas on textile and apparel
   trade in 2005. When the AGOA expires in 2015, we will lose another form of
   preferential treatment in terms of tariffs from the US market," Ma
   said.Another manager of a Taiwanese-owned textile and apparel business who
   wished to remain anonymous said the suspension of the Duty Credit
   Certificate Scheme (DCCS) in March was expected to cost his company a 15
   percent drop in revenue.The DCCS is an export subsidy for Taiwanese
   textile industries introduced by SACU in April 1993."We hope SACU will
   come up with new measures to replace the DCCS," he said.Chang Wan-li,
   president of the Taiwan Business Association in Swaziland and the
   president of W.W. Textile, said unstable electricity suppl y was a major
   challenge for the country, while fluctuations in electricity prices were
   also unfavorable to investment.Another concern for Taiwanese businesses in
   Swaziland is its rising labor cost, as wages have increased at an average
   annual rate of between 7 and 12 percent, pushing wage levels higher than
   in some Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam and Cambodia, Ma
   said.However, Ma said he looked at the positive side, adding that rules
   and regulations governing employment in Swaziland can better protect labor
   than those in Taiwan.An anonymous official with the Swaziland Investment
   Promotion Authority (SIPA), who was not allowed to speak for the agency,
   said the SIPA was fully aware of the concerns of Taiwanese businesses and
   held regular talks to work out solutions to the problems."At present, 75
   percent of Swaziland's electricity is bought from South Africa, with 5
   percent from Mozambique, but we are now planning to build a power plant,"
   she said.In a driv e to increase the country's competitiveness and create
   links between research and industry, the Swazi government is working on
   building an information, communications and technology park, to be funded
   through a loan from the Export-Import Bank of India.Another much larger
   research and development facility is a science and biotechnology park,
   with initial funding for its infrastructure design phase coming from the
   Taiwanese government and the master plan and designs done by CECI
   Engineering Consultants, Taiwan."This is the story of our biotechnology
   dream. We have a lot of natural resources to develop biotechnology and
   pharmaceuticals, to make cosmetics and medicine, but we don't have a
   research and development facility," said Moses Zungu, project manager at
   the Royal Science Technology Park."We want to capture some materials we
   have in the country and add value to them, so that we can make a decent
   income out of that, to sustain ourselves, to create skills and new
   products," Zungu told reporters. "It will change the whole trade landscape
   for the country."Swaziland also aims to boost its tourism industry, with a
   goal of doubling the number of tourists -- currently at 1.3 million --
   within a year and attracting tourists from continents other than Africa
   and Europe.Its new Sikhuphe International Airport is expected to begin
   operations in December.Swazi Minister of Tourism, Environment and
   Communications Thandie Shongwe said his country was looking forward to
   opening direct flights to and from Taiwan to attract more Taiwanese who
   are "high on tourism" to explore the culture of the "clean" and "smiling"
   Swaziland.(Description of Source: Taipei Taipei Times Online in English --
   Website of daily English-language sister publication of Tzu-yu Shih-pao
   (Liberty Times), generally supports pan-green parties and issues; URL:
   http://www.taipeitimes.com)

   Material in the World News Connection i s generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   7) Back to Top
   Xinhua 'Interview': Chile To Further Explore Asian Tourism Market:
   Official
   Xinhua "Interview" by Luan Xiang: "Chile To Further Explore Asian Tourism
   Market: Official" - Xinhua
   Monday August 2, 2010 11:15:24 GMT
   SANTIAGO, Aug. 1 (Xinhua) -- Chile hopes to attract more tourists from
   Asia, especially from China, Japan and India, said Jacqueline Plass,
   director of Chile's National Tourism Service, in an exclusive interview
   with Xinhua.

   Ms. Plass said Chile is unique in the world with its great variety of
   natural scenes. As a perfect tourist destination, it is consid ered "the
   end of the world."It is renowned for the world's driest desert Atacama in
   the north, the extended territory of modern cities, the exquisite beaches,
   rich vineries, the original culture of indigenous Mapuche, the amazing
   beauty of the virgin land in Patagonia, and the Antarctic glacier.As an
   initial step, Chile's National Tourism Service will join hands with
   ProChile, the Trade Commission of Chile, and other institutions for a
   one-year promotion program.They will set up a number of offices at travel
   agencies and tourism-related sectors in China to enhance better
   understanding of the South American country among the Chinese.In addition,
   Chile will launch a comprehensive publicity campaign for tourism to the
   Chinese public.Plass told Xinhua that Chile is designing routines for
   Asian tourists who will come to South America during major sports events
   such as World Cup 2014 and the 2016 Olympic Games, both to be held in
   Brazil.She said Chinese sports fans who w ill travel across the Pacific
   Ocean for these events may also like to take the opportunity to witness
   Chile's unique natural beauty they should not miss.Sharing the fabulous
   scenic resources of the Patagonia, Chile and Argentina are currently
   working together on a promotion program in major cities of China, hoping
   to attract Asian tourists with an integrated package which includes the
   best scenery from both sides of the Andes.Despite the earthquake that hit
   Chile on Feb. 27, "the tourism sector has not been affected," said
   Plass.She also said that Chile has a relatively low crime rate among South
   American countries, and that Asian tourists will have a safe, worry-free
   trip there.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's
   official news service for English-language audiences (New China News
   Agency))

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder . Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   8) Back to Top
   Gov't Negotiator Says Taiwan Wants Bigger Role in Region
   Unattributed article from the "Taiwan" page: "Gov't Negotiator Says Taiwan
   Wants Bigger Role in Region" - The China Post Online
   Tuesday August 3, 2010 02:06:05 GMT
   TAIPEI -- Taiwan's top negotiator with China reiterated at a seminar on
   Monday the country's desire to take part in the economic integration of
   the region, but a Chinese official taking part in the forum did not
   respond to the plea.

   Chiang Pin-kung, chairman of the Straits Exchange Foundation, which is in
   charge of Taiwan's dealings with China, said the economic cooperation
   framework agreement (ECFA) recently signed with China provides it an
   opportun ity to compete with Association of Southeast Asian Nations
   (ASEAN) members in China on an equal footing.

   Chiang said, however, that more needs to be done because the region is
   integrating economically, with China, South Korea, Japan, India, Australia
   and New Zealand, trying to form a regional trade bloc with ASEAN.

   "Rather than being excluded from the process, Taiwan would like to take
   part in it and beat Japan and South Korea to the punch, " Chiang said.

   An active role for Taiwan in the region would preserve the dynamism of its
   economy and strengthen its confidence in cooperating more closely on trade
   with China, to the benefit of both sides, Chiang said.

   He contended that such cooperation will lay a solid foundation for the
   peaceful development between Taiwan and China.

   Zhang Mingqing, the vice president of China's Association for Relations
   Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) and the head of China's delegation to
   the seminar, did not respond to Chiang's appeal.

   Instead, he lauded the conclusion of the ECFA in his speech, calling it a
   milestone in ties between Beijing and Taipei that will set a new stage for
   bilateral relations.

   The trade pact, clinched on June 29, is a preliminary form of free trade
   pact and an attempt by the two sides to institutionalize their trade
   relations.

   Taiwan hopes the pact will help it negotiate similar trade pacts with
   other states, but Beijing has been reluctant to see it sign pacts with
   other states fearing they would give international legitimacy to Taiwan's
   push to be recognized as a sovereign state.

   The annual seminar on China's modernization, which opened here on Monday,
   was jointly staged by ARATS and the private Academic Foundation for
   Advancing Chinese Modernization in Taipei.

   More than 40 scholars from Taiwan and China are attending this year's
   seminar.(Description of Source: Taipei The China Post Online in English --
   Website of daily newspaper which generally supports the pan-blue parties
   and issues; URL: http://www.chinapost.com.tw)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
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   9) Back to Top
   Various Countries Mark 'Korean People's War Victory Day'
   KCNA headline: "Korean People's War Victory Day Marked in Different
   Countries" - KCNA
   Tuesday August 3, 2010 04:17:34 GMT
   (Description of Source: Pyongyang KCNA in English -- Official DPRK news
   agency. URL: http://www.kcna.co.jp)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyrigh t
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   10) Back to Top
   Indian Security Forces Recover 20 Kg RDX From Rajouri District in Kashmir
   Unattributed report: "20 Kg RDX Seized in Kalakote" - Daily Excelsior
   Online
   Tuesday August 3, 2010 04:32:45 GMT
   JAMMU, Aug 2: Army and police today recovered another consignment of
   explosive devices and ammunition including 20 kg RDX in Rajouri district
   today.This was second seizure of explosives during last two days in the
   border district as Army and police had yesterday seized a huge consignment
   including 44 kg RDX from Santo forests in Chingus area.Official sources
   said troops of 63 Rashtriya Rifles, 72 CRPF and SOG launched a search
   operation at village Khadarian in Kalakote tehsil of Rajouri thi s morning
   and recovered the consignment.Recoveries included 20 kg RDX, 405 AK
   rounds, 133 pistol rounds, 47 UBGL shells, 50 IED fuse, one booster, three
   weapon kits and pencil cells.A hide-out of the militants has also been
   destroyed in the area, sources said.

   (Description of Source: Jammu Daily Excelsior Online in English -- Website
   of independent daily providing comprehensive reporting on Kashmir issues.
   Advocates hardline Indian stance against Pakistan on Kashmir. Circulation
   of 150,000; URL: www.dailyexcelsior.com)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   11) Back to Top
   S. Korea's FX Reserves Top Record High in July
   Xinhua: "S. Korea's FX Reserves Top Record High in Jul y" - Xinhua
   Tuesday August 3, 2010 02:32:24 GMT
   SEOUL, Aug. 3 (Xinhua) -- South Korea's foreign exchange reserves settled
   a new record in July on the back of a weaker U.S. dollar that pulled up
   the conversion value of assets denominated in other currencies, the
   central bank said Tuesday.

   According to the Bank of Korea (BOK), South Korea's official foreign
   reserves as of the end of July 2010 amounted to 285.96 billion U.S.
   dollars, up 11.74 billion U.S. dollars from the 274. 22 billion U.S.
   dollars total at the end of the preceding month.The July gain was mainly
   attributable to an increase in the operating profits on the foreign
   reserves, while a sharp rise was seen in the U.S. dollar translation
   values of euro- and pound- denominated reserves, the BOK said.As of the
   end of July this year, the nation's official foreign reserves consist of
   245.03 billion U.S. dollars of securi ties, 36. 39 billion U.S. dollars of
   deposits, 3.5 billion U.S. dollars of Special Drawing Rights, 0.96 billion
   U.S. dollars of its IMF reserve position, and 0.08 billion U.S. dollars of
   gold.As of the end of June, South Korea remained the 6th largest holder of
   foreign reserves in the world, following China, Japan, Russia, China's
   Taiwan and India.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English --
   China's official news service for English-language audiences (New China
   News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   12) Back to Top
   Six killed in Indian Kashmir as protesters target government buildings -
   PTI News Agency
   Tuesday August 3, 2010 04:32:45 GMT
   Text of report by Indian news agency PTISrinagar, 2 August: A fresh wave
   of protests in Kashmir Valley of the north Indian state Jammu and Kashmir
   Monday (2 August) claimed six lives and left 250 injured as police opened
   fire to disperse rampaging mobs who indulged in stone-pelting, attacked
   government buildings and looted weapons from police.Defying curfew,
   stone-pelting protesters took to the streets in several places and
   attacked police stations and CRPF (Central Reserve Police Force,
   paramilitary force) camps in the valley where 21 people have been killed
   and over 500 injured, including 200 security force personnel, in violence
   since last Friday.One protester was killed in police firing after
   agitators attacked a police post and attempted to set it afire in Kulgam
   district. In adjacent Sangam in Anantnag district, one person was killed
   when Central Reserve Police Force personnel retaliated to heavy stone-thro
   wing at their camp, police said, adding another person died in a stampede
   following the firing.At Kakpora, in south Kashmir's Pulwama district,
   police opened fire on a group of stone-pelting protesters who were
   indulging in ransacking, killing one of them.One person was killed in
   Kralpora in north Kashmir's Kupwara district when police fired on a mob
   which looted arms from a police post. The agitators managed to flee with
   four rifles.A boy, who was injured in violence in Batmaloo district this
   afternoon, succumbed in the evening, police said.Protesters this afternoon
   set afire all the four buildings in a police station at Rajpura in Pulwama
   district injuring 20 people."Rampaging mobs violated curfew restrictions
   at various places in Kakapora, Pulwama, Budgam, Anantnag, Kulgam and
   Kupwara destroying police and public properties," police department said
   in a statement.Earlier in the day, protesters set afire two government
   offices and a railway structure in central B udgam district.Three
   protesters were injured there as police tried to contain the
   violence.Three people were injured in firing in Bemina on the outskirts of
   Srinagar.A person identified as Tariq Ahmed, who was hit by a teargas
   shell three days back in Bijbehara in south Kashmir, succumbed to his
   injuries in a hospital here.Meanwhile, the Centre (federal government)
   today rallied behind Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah in
   handling the situation in the Kashmir Valley and indicated it is committed
   to carrying out political initiatives for which peace is a
   prerequisite.Arriving in New Delhi on Monday morning, Omar called on
   Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh who chaired a high-level meeting to
   discuss the current unrest in the valley and find an administrative and
   political way out.He briefed the meeting in which all the members of the
   Cabinet Committee of Security (CCS) including Finance Minister Pranab
   Mukherjee, Home Minister P Chidambaram, Defence Minister A K Antony and
   External Affairs Minister S M Krishna were present on the latest turn of
   events in Kashmir which witnessed a spurt in violence.(Description of
   Source: New Delhi PTI News Agency in English )

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   13) Back to Top
   Zambian Government Delegation Visits India To Promote Business
   Unattributed report: Govt Delegation in India on Business Mission -
   Times of Zambia Online
   Tuesday August 3, 2010 03:07:47 GMT
   The minister said her team which includes Finance and National Planning
   Deputy Minister David Phiri, Government officials and representatives from
   the Za mbia Development Agency (ZDA), was in India out of the conviction
   that, Zambia and India can deepen further, economic relations in keeping
   with the spirit of south-south cooperation. Ms Siliya said Zambia with a
   surface area of 750,000 square km, 12 neighbouring countries that form the
   Southern African Development Community (SADC) with a Gross Domestic
   Product(GDP) of US$450 billion, and a market for 250 million people,
   presents an excellent investment climate.

   She said Zambia, a politically stable nation since independence in 1964,
   was well endowed with natural resources and a large land expanse suitable
   for production of cash crops such as cotton and tobacco.She said the
   country also had an educated and English speaking population - an
   important requisite for doing business. She said the availability of
   several waterfalls dotted around the country presents investment
   opportunities in the hydro-power generation.

   The minister said biofuels were yet another area awaiting investors to
   venture into as this will give Zambia diverse energy sources to meet the
   ever increasing demand for energy for domestic and industrial purposes.Ms
   Siliya said opportunities also abound for investment in tourism,
   manufacturing, education, health, construction and information technology.
   She informed her audience that the creation of Multi-Facility Economic
   Zones (MFEZs) was also intended to give investors wider latitude for
   undertaking economic activities in areas where special incentives were
   offered. She assured Indian companies that the Zambian Government remained
   committed to creating an enabling environment which, apart from providing
   incentives, guaranteed full protection and safety of any investment that
   comes into the country.

   She cited the ZDA Act of 2006 that provides for a number of incentives
   such as tax holidays and free exercise duty on imported machinery, and the
   PPP Act of 2009 that allows for the private sector to partner with Go
   vernment in various sectors of the economy, as measures taken to attract
   investors into Zambia.

   Meanwhile, the Finance deputy minister has asked India to help Zambia
   develop the Lusaka MFEZs by financing infrastructure development, water
   reticulation, and power connectivity among others. Thanking India for the
   US$50 million Line of Credit extended to Zambia for the development of
   Itedzi Hydro Power Project, Mr Phiri extolled the strong economic presence
   of India in Zambia citing the Indo-Zambia Bank and Vedanta Group of
   companies under whose auspice Konkola Copper Mines (KCM) was running, as
   some of the key economic entities binding Zambia and India.

   The deputy minister was speaking in New Delhi when he led a Zambian
   Government Business Promotion team, in paying a courtesy call on India's
   External Affairs secretary (West), Vivek Katju.Mr Phiri said Zambia was
   desperately in need of development and would ensure all procedural
   requirements were finalised to quick en the process of disbursing funds
   that were pledged by India for the development of the Itedzi Tedzi Power
   generation project.

   He said his team was in India on a business promotion mission marketing
   Zambia as an investment destination under the Public Private Partnership
   (PPP). He noted that Zambia had a lot to learn from India where the PPP
   concept was fully functional and contributing significantly to the growth
   of a vibrant economy. It was the desire of Zambia to strengthen economic
   relations with India and hoped that the two countries would enter into
   more joint ventures for their common good.

   In response, Mr Katju assured Mr Phiri that his government would encourage
   Indian investors to venture into Zambia as this would add impetus to the
   expansion of cooperation between Zambia and India. Mr Katju said India was
   committed to the growth of the Zambian economy and would therefore support
   the country's development efforts. The Indian official added that in su
   pporting Zambia's development agenda, India would not be prescriptive in
   determining what aid to give to Zambia but leave it to the latter to
   indicate priority areas in which assistance was required.

   (Description of Source: Lusaka Times of Zambia Online in English --
   Government-owned daily; URL: http://www.times.co.zm/)

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   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   14) Back to Top
   Survey Shows Hong Kong Youngsters Own Most Mobiles Across Asia
   Xinhua: "Survey Shows Hong Kong Youngsters Own Most Mobiles Across Asia" -
   Xinhua
   Tuesday August 3, 2010 01:59:04 GMT
   HONG KONG, Aug. 2 (Xinhua) - - Personal ownership of mobiles among Asia's
   youth had increased from 60 percent in 2008 to 64 percent in 2010, while
   that of Hong Kong jumped from 82 percent to 87 percent of youth owning a
   mobile, the highest among all surveyed regions, according to a survey
   released on Monday by market research firm Synovate.

   In the 5th Synovate Young Asians, respondents ranged from eight to 24
   years old across 11 markets in Asia, including China's mainland, Hong
   Kong, Taiwan, India, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand and the Republic of
   Korea.A total sample of 12,302 youth was surveyed by face to face
   interviews and online method during the second quarter this year, said
   Synovate in a statement.Sixty-four percent of young Asians surveyed own a
   mobile phone. Hong Kong is leading the pack with 87 percent of youth
   possessing this multifunctional extension of themselves, followed by 85
   percent of Singaporean and youth in the Republic of Korea, it said.When
   looking at the results by age se gments, 93 percent of youth between age
   12 to 14 in Hong Kong and Singapore own a mobile phone, above the regional
   average of 47 percent, according to the survey.In Hong Kong, the most
   popular mobile phone activities over the past 7 days are listening to
   music, SMS, taking pictures, and playing games, it said."This year, we see
   that the mobile phone is simply inseparable from its owner. More youth
   across a number of Asia markets now own a mobile compared to 2008. With
   one in five young Asian planning to use their mobile even more often,
   these findings show the great potential of this medium," said Susanna Lam,
   research director of Synovate in Hong Kong.Synovate Young Asians is a
   tracking survey that provides credible, relevant, and detailed information
   on the lifestyle, product ownership, media, and leisure habits of young
   people in Asia aged eight to 24, meeting the needs of regional media,
   marketing and advertising specialists.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinh
   ua in English -- China's official news service for English-language
   audiences (New China News Agency))

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   15) Back to Top
   Airasia x Is Bringing Discount Fares to Korea - JoongAng Daily Online
   Tuesday August 3, 2010 00:46:09 GMT
   (JOONGANG ILBO) - AirAsia X, an affiliate of Asia's largest discount
   carrier, will begin flying to Korea on Nov. 1 in a move that could change
   the local aviation sector as the first international low-cost airline to
   enter the local market.

   The unit of Malaysian-based AirAsia will operate services between Seoul
   and Kuala Lumpur, the c arrier's hub airport, from which it flies to 132
   destinations in Southeast Asia."We've been waiting for this for a very
   long time," said Azran Osman-Rani, the AirAsia X chief executive, said
   yesterday.The carrier has been eyeing the Korean market since it was
   formed in 2007 as the long-distance offshoot of AirAsia, which specializes
   in short-range flights in the Southeast Asian region.Korea will be the
   11th overseas destination for AirAsia X, which also flies to Australia,
   India, Taiwan, China and Europe.AirAsia was the brainchild of Tony
   Fernandes, a former music executive, who bought a bankrupt Malaysian
   airline in 2002 and made it into the leading discount carrier in
   Asia.AirAsia, which started with two jets and flew 200,000 passengers in
   its first year, now operates 94 aircraft that flew 24 million passengers
   last year.AirAsia X will offer a promotional fare of 60,000 won ($51)
   between Aug. 4 and 8 for flights booked between Nov. 1, 2010, and Aug. 11,
   2011. (Re servations can be made via www.airasia.com or
   mobile.airasia.com.)It said that its highest fares would be about 30
   percent cheaper than those offered by Korean Air, the nation's largest
   carrier.AirAsia X will offer a daily flight each way between Seoul and
   Kuala Lumpur.Despite AirAsia X's entry into the Korean market, Korean
   airlines, both scheduled and discount carriers, said they were not worried
   about the competition.They explained that the passenger target markets
   were different between AirAsia X and the local carriers, while there is
   little overlap in terms of flight routes.Korea has three discount
   carriers, but they mainly fly domestic routes and only a few international
   routes to neighboring countries such as China and Japan.AirAsia X
   predicted that its service will boost bilateral tourism as they celebrate
   the 50th anniversary of diplomatic ties between Malaysia and Korea. Around
   227,000 Koreans went to visit Malaysia last year.(Description of Source:
   Seoul JoongAng Daily Online in English -- Website of English-language
   daily which provides English-language summaries and full-texts of items
   published by the major center-right daily JoongAng Ilbo, as well as unique
   reportage; distributed as an insert to the Seoul edition of the
   International Herald Tribune; URL: http://joongangdaily.joins.com)

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   Commerce.

   16) Back to Top
   ROK Foreign Reserves Hit Record High in July
   Updated version: replacing 2100 GMT version with source-supplied 2325 GMT
   update, which "ADDS more details in paras 3,7"; adjusting headline;
   adjusting topic tags; Yonhap headline: "(LEAD) S. Korea's Foreign Reserves
   Hit Record High in July" ; - Yonhap
   Monday August 2, 2010 23:49:45 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial news
   agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   17) Back to Top
   Heads of Russian, Indian space agencies, experts discuss cooperation -
   Interfax-AVN Online
   Monday August 2, 2010 17:11:19 GMT
   cooperation

   Text of report by corporate-owned Russian military news agency
   Interfax-AVNMoscow, 2 August: On Monday (2 August), the head of Roskosmos
   (Russia n Federal Space Agency), Anatoliy Perminov, met the chairman of
   the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), K.Radhakrishnan, the
   agency's press service has reported.A statement posted on the Roskosmos
   website says that cooperation between the space agencies of the two
   countries has good prospects. Issues of supply of Russian components for
   the GSLV Indian launch vehicle in particular were discussed during the
   meeting, in which representatives of the space agencies, experts and
   representatives of enterprises of the space rocket industries of the two
   countries took part.Apart from that, issues of Russian-Indian cooperation
   in the area of research of the Moon (Chandrayaan-2 project), development
   of satellite navigation technologies on the basis of Glonass, as well as
   future steps regarding the ISRO's contracts with Roskosmos and the
   Energiya space rocket corporation on research in the area of
   implementation of projects of manned space flights were
   considered.(Description of Source: Moscow Interfax-AVN Online in Russian
   -- Website of news service devoted to military news, owned by the
   independent Interfax news agency; URL: http://www.militarynews.ru)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   18) Back to Top
   Indian Company To Produce Vehicles in Myanmar
   Xinhua: "Indian Company To Produce Vehicles in Myanmar" - Xinhua
   Monday August 2, 2010 13:02:13 GMT
   YANGON, Aug. 2 (Xinhua) -- India's largest truck and bus manufacturer --
   Ta Ta Motors Company, will produce vehicles in Kyaukse industrial zone in
   Myanmar's Mandalay division, a local weekly reported on Monday.

   Joined with the Myanmar Automobile and Diesel Engine Industries under the
   Ministry of Industry-2, the Ta Ta Motors Ltd will produce saloon cars,
   light trucks and buses, the Weekly Eleven said, adding that the Indian
   company planned to produce 10,000 saloon cars annually.With the signing of
   the contract on the production in 2009, Ta Ta has become the first Indian
   automotive firm to operate in Myanmar.Besides, other countries such as
   Japan, South Korea and China have also joined with Myanmar in vehicle
   production.India stands as Myanmar's 4th largest trading partner after
   Thailand, China and Singapore and also Myanmar's second largest export
   market after Thailand, absorbing 25 percent of its total exports.India's
   contracted investment in five sectors of Myanmar reached 189 million U.S.
   dollars as of December 2009 since the government opened the foreign
   investment in 1988, of which 137 million were drawn into the oil and gas
   sector in September 2007, the statistics show.(D escription of Source:
   Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for
   English-language audiences (New China News Agency))

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   19) Back to Top
   EU Says Somali Pirates Hijack Panamanian Vessel With 23 Crew Members
   Onboard - AFP (World Service)
   Monday August 2, 2010 15:12:58 GMT
   (Description of Source: Paris AFP (World Service) in English -- world news
   service of the independent French news agency Agence France Presse)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the c opyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   20) Back to Top
   Pakistan Press Nawa-e Waqt 2 Aug 10
   To request additional processing, call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735. - Nawa-e Waqt
   Monday August 2, 2010 15:47:30 GMT
   pictures on page 1 show flames rising from government buildings, military
   vehicles, aerial view of inundated homes, crops in Taunsa, and Nawaz
   Sharif talking to the media persons during visit to flood-affected areas
   of Nowshera. Lead Stories: Report by special correspondent: Devastations
   by floods; death toll reaches 1,400; high flood at Kot Addu; more than
   900,000 cusec water to pass through Taunsa Barrage

   Second spell of torrential rains has started in South Waziristan, Dera
   Ismail Kha n, and other areas. (pp 1, 9; 1,500 words) ANN report: The US
   to give $10 million for flood-affected people; two planes with 50,000
   food-packs arrive at Chaklala Airbase (pp 1, 9; 200 words) INP report:
   President Asif Ali Zardari should postpone visit to the United Kingdom; I
   have come to assist affected people; to provide every possible facility:
   Nawaz Sharif; Pakistan's sovereignty hurt by David Cameron's statement (pp
   1, 9; 200 words) Report by special correspondent: We are ready for talks
   with Baluchi leadership; interior minister directed to complete
   investigation into Benazir Bhutto's assassination: Prime Minister Gilani
   (pp 1, 9; 800 words) Report by special correspondent: Jews will have to
   face grave consequences if fail to refrain: Religious scholars at dignity
   of the holy Prophet conference; announcement by US church to torch the
   holy Koran strongly condemned (pp 1, 9; 300 words) APP report: President
   Zardari holds meeting with Abu Dhabi crown prince; views exchang ed on
   floods, other issues (pp 1, 9; 400 words) Report on press release: Fifteen
   more boats, helicopters sought from the Army; we will not rest until full
   rehabilitation of flood-affected people: Shahbaz Sharif (pp 1, 9; 600
   words) Report by special correspondent: Zardari should spend expenditure
   to be incurred on visit to the United Kingdom on flood-affected people:
   Imran Khan (pp 1, 9; 200 words) INP report: President Zardari should not
   go to London for pleasure trip: Chaudhry Shujaat, PML-Q (Pakistan Muslim
   League-Qaid-e-Azam) leader (pp 1, 9; 200 words) INP report: Those
   preventing Zardari from UK visit should first sell away their flats there:
   Federal law minister, Punjab senior minister (pp 1, 8; 200 words) Report
   by news agencies: We will get isolated if we insist on preventing drone
   attacks: Information Minister Qamar Zaman Kaira (pp 1, 8; 200 words)
   Report by special correspondent: We will not accept any dam or canal on
   Indus River: Sindi nationalist leaders (pp 1, 9; 600 words) ANN report:
   Pervez Musharraf, former military ruler, to formally announce joining
   politics after Id (festival to mark the end of the Ramadan): Former
   minister Chaudhry Shahbaz (pp 1, 9; 400 words) Report by special
   correspondent: Balochistan; secret hand, not Baluchis, involved in
   targeted killing of settlers: Talal Bugti; why Musharraf cannot be tried
   if former soldiers are hanged in Bangladesh; Arms being smuggling into
   Balochistan via Afghanistan (pp 1, 9; 500 words) Report by special
   correspondent: Fazlur Rehman elected unopposed Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazlur
   Rehman (JUI-F) president for three-year term (pp 1, 9; 100 words) ANN
   report: I am doing my job according to law; not to succumb to pressure:
   Javed Leghari, Higher Education Commission (HEC) chief (pp 1, 9; 300
   words) Report by Qazi Bilal: The HEC hands over record of degree
   verification to standing committee (pp 1, 9; 200 words) Report by special
   correspondent: We should be allowed to investigate contro l tower
   officials: Police station Kohsar's letter (pp 1, 9; 300 words) Report by
   Suhail Abdul Nasir: Final decision made to send black box of (crashed)
   plane to France (pp 1, 9; 300 words) Report from monitoring desk: Orakza i
   Agency; bombing on militant hideouts; 21 killed (pp 1, 9; 100 words) INP
   report: Seven martyred, 150 injured in firing by the Indian forces in
   Occupied (Indian-administered) Kashmir; several government buildings
   torched; entire valley under curfew (pp 1, 9; 500 words) Online report:
   Enemies have become aware of our war strategy; disclosure of secret
   information terrifies us: Robert Gates (pp 1, 8; 200 words) Page 2: News
   From Islamabad, Rawalpindi

   Page 2 has a column besides local news and advertisements. Page 3:
   National, International Reports

   The page 3 contains national and international news. Column by Rafique
   Dogar: What Baluchi tribal chieftain should do?

   The column calls for President Zardari to cancel his visit to the Unite d
   Kingdom after the hostile statement by the British prime minister. (800
   words) APP report: Afghanistan; demonstration held against killing of 45
   persons in NATO attack (p 3; 100 words) Page 4: News From Islamabad's
   Suburbs Column by Saeed Aasi: Eating delicious dishes, enjoying

   The column discusses complaint by a Pakistan People's Party (PPP) woman
   leader about top leadership. (800 words) Page 5: Business, Commerce Column
   by Marwi Memon: Accidents, calamities, our preparations

   The column discusses problems being faced by people because of floods and
   government's failure to provide timely assistance to the affected people.
   (1,500 words) Page 6: Reports From Districts; Continuation of Reports From
   Other Pages Report by special correspondent: US mother of terrorism;
   development not possible by charity of Benazir Income Support Program:
   Minister Azam Swati; peace will be established in region after withdrawal
   of US, NATO forces (p 6; 200 words) Interview by Salma n Ghani: Cameron's
   tirade; Zardari should cancel visit to the United Kingdom, Nawaz Sharif
   should announce not to visit the United Kingdom until withdrawal of
   statement: Lord Nazir (pp 6, 10; 500 words) Page 7: Classified Ads Page 8:
   Continuation of Reports From Other Pages Page 9: Continuation of Reports
   From Other Pages Page 10: Continuation of Reports From Other Pages Page
   11: Sports World Page 12: National, International Reports

   Three-fourth of the page 12 is covered by advertisements. Report by
   special correspondent: Zardar's visit to London after statement by Cameron
   uncalled-for: Ahsan Iqbal

   The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leader said that why the rulers
   failed to see the people stranded in tribulation. (pp 8, 12; 300 words)
   INP report: The targeted killing in Karachi; six more, including former
   councilor, killed (pp 8, 12; 200 words) APP report: Coal reserves in Thar
   is the third largest asset of country: Dr Samar Mubarak Mand; reserves
   more th an overall oil reserves of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq (pp 8, 12; 300
   words) Report by special correspondent: Policies should be changed to
   steer country out of crisis: Maulana Fazlur Rehman (pp 8, 12; 300 words)
   Report by special correspondent: Go-slow policy enters into 9th day; 13
   pilots refuse to fly; national airline suffers loss worth billions (pp 8,
   12; 300 words) NNI report: Musharraf timid person; will not return to
   Pakistan until 2040: PPP leader Aitzaz Ahsan (pp 8, 12; 200 words) Report
   by Waqar Abbasi: National Accountability Bureau starts investigation into
   corruption scam in Capital Development Authority (pp 8, 12; 200 words)
   Report by special correspondent: The Punjab Government becomes silent
   spectator over plight of public schools (pp 8, 12; 300 words) Page 13:
   Interviews, Feature Reports Report by Sajjad Tirin: Terrorism in
   Balochistan; India's sec ret hand involved: Interior Minister Rehman
   Malik; we have evidence that enemy providing weapons, military traini ng
   to unpatriotic elements (2,000 words) Report by Aziz Alvi : Margalla
   tragedy; FIR (First Information Report) not registered so far; experts say
   investigations into such incidents very difficult, arduous (800 words)
   Page 14: Editorial, Lead Articles

   Page 14 has editorials and articles in addition to the regular gossip
   column "By the way" and regular series of Islamic teachings from the holy
   Koran. It also has couplets from Allama Iqbal and Muzaffar Warsi, and a
   saying of Qaid-e-Azam. Editorial: Flood devastations, apathy of
   government; government should not let its calamity-hit brethren feel
   lonely

   The editorial discusses devastations caused by rains and floods. The
   people in flood-hit areas are feeling helpless and waiting for aid. There
   appears no arrangement to shift them to safer places. (1,000 words)
   Editorial: Kashmir Issue...business by the United Kingdom

   The editorial discusses deep regret expressed by Prime Minister Gilani
   over state ment of the British prime minister in India and his overlooking
   of human rights abuses in Occupied Kashmir. He was on a business trip to
   India and leveled absurd allegations against Pakistan to please India.
   (300 words) Editorial: After finding black box; no more delay be made

   The editorial demands early ascertaining of facts regarding crash of
   passenger plane in the Red Zone area of Islamabad. (200 words) Editorial:
   Indian movies; mischievous proposal

   The editorial criticizes the Punjab Government decision to waive off 65
   percent recreational tax on the Indian and English movies. (200 words)
   Article by Qamar Zaman Kaira: Who represents people (part-I) (1,200 words)
   Article by Dr Hussain Ahmed Piracha: Drowning cities, sinking hearts
   (1,000 words) Article by Javed Qureshi: Natural calamities, favors of
   'friends' (part-I) (800 words) Page 15: Articles

   Page 15 has articles on national and international issues. Article by Syed
   Nasir Raza Kazmi: General Ashf aq Pervez Kayani; steadfast military
   leadership (1,000 words) Article by Muhammad Rasul Dawar: The US targets,
   our misperception (800 words) Article by Malik Abdur Rehman: Banta Singh,
   Catholics, transit trade (600 words) Page 16: Feature Reports Magazine
   report: City washed away by floods; flood torrents were so strong that
   entire settlements were ruined (1,000 words)

   (Description of Source: Rawalpindi Nawa-e Waqt in Urdu -- Privately owned,
   widely read, conservative Islamic daily, with circulation around 125,000.
   Harshly critical of the US and India)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   21) Back to Top
   Militant Handlers Activate Network of Overground Workers in Kashmir
   Unat tributed report: "Overground Workers Plot Terror in J&amp;amp;K" - The
   Pioneer Online
   Monday August 2, 2010 14:21:20 GMT
   Jammu -- After failing to push fresh recruits into Indian territory from
   across the international border and the Line of Control, militant handlers
   have activated their network of overground workers (OGWs).

   Repeated recoveries of huge consignments of explosive material and cache
   of arms and ammunition from militant hideouts clearly point to their
   increased mobility in remote areas of the State. In a few cases, the
   involvement of woman carriers has also come to light and efforts made by
   security forces to recover them from the custody of militants have yielded
   positive results.In the first seven months of the year, more than 65 OGWs
   have been arrested for their direct involvement in subversive activities
   in Jammu region alone.Fresh recovery of a huge c onsignment of explosive
   material from Rajouri district on Sunday has also alerted security forces
   in Jammu region in view of the prevailing law and order situation in the
   Kashmir Valley. Forces suspect the involvement of OGWs.According to
   reports, militant outfits have received directions from across the border
   to create more disturbance, especially in Jammu region.An Army spokesman
   said, "A huge consignment of 30 kg explosive material (two IEDs weighing
   15 kg each) was recovered during routine search and cordon operations from
   near the Line of Control in Santogla area of Rajouri on Sunday." Some 450
   rounds for AK rifle, UBGL grenades, three 9mm pistols and some other
   material was also recovered from the hideout. A similar consignment of 140
   kg of explosives -- including six IEDs of 15 kg each -- was recently
   recovered from Kishtwar district.

   (Description of Source: New Delhi The Pioneer Online in English -- Website
   of the pro-Bharatiya Janata Party daily, f avors nationalistic foreign and
   economic policies. Circulation for its five editions is approximately
   160,000, with its core audience in Lucknow and Delhi; URL:
   http://www.dailypioneer.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   22) Back to Top
   South Africa Considers RF Important Strategic Partner - Saul Molobi -
   ITAR-TASS
   Monday August 2, 2010 14:12:10 GMT
   intervention)

   PRETORIA, August 2 (Itar-Tass) - South Africa considers Russia an
   important strategic partner in political, social and economic affairs, as
   well as in strengthening stability in the world, spokesman for the
   Department of Inte rnational Relations and Cooperation Saul Kgomotso
   Molobi said on Monday.Ahead of South African President Jacob Zuma's
   official visit to Russia scheduled for August 4-6, the spokesman said
   South Africa named this trip as part of the efforts aimed at increasing
   trade turnover with BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China)."The
   visit is designed to strengthen the North-South cooperation in order to
   expand relations in culture, education and cutting-edged technologies," he
   said.Zuma will arrive in Russia at the invitation of President Dmitry
   Medvedev, Molobi said. During the visit, the parties are planning to sign
   an agreement on high technologies, particularly a memorandum on
   understanding between the Russian Federal Space Agency and the South
   African National Space Agency in observing the Earth, as well as an
   agreement on cooperation on plant quarantine.Russia and South Africa
   reveal the commonness of positions on the challenges and tasks that they
   face in edu cation and healthcare, the South African diplomat stressed.The
   South African delegation includes Tourism Minister Martinus van Schalkwyk,
   who earlier said that he was expected to discuss direct air service
   between the two countries, visa facility and promotion of South Africa as
   an attractive area for tourists. Russia is one of the leaders in this
   aspect, the minister stressed. In 1998 the two countries signed an
   agreement on tourism. But it has not been implemented till now.In trade,
   Russia ranks 44th in import and 31st in export. Trade turnover amounts to
   about 700 million U.S. dollars.(Description of Source: Moscow ITAR-TASS in
   English -- Main government information agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   23) Back to Top
   &lt; div style="font-weight:bold;font-size:16pt;"&gt;Taiwan's Negotiator Says
   Taiwan Wants Bigger Role In Region
   By Charles Kang and Maubo Chang - Central News Agency
   Monday August 2, 2010 12:55:09 GMT
   Taipei, Aug. 2 (CNA) --Taiwan's top negotiator with China reiterated at a
   seminar on Monday the country's desire to take part in the economic
   integration of the region, but a Chinese official taking part in the forum
   did not respond to the plea.

   Chiang Pin-kung, chairman of the Straits Exchange Foundation, which is in
   charge of Taiwan's dealings with China, said the economic cooperation
   framework agreement (ECFA) recently signed with China provides it an
   opportunity to compete with Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
   members in China on an equal footing.Chiang said, however, that more needs
   to be done because the region is integrating economically, with China,
   South Korea, Ja pan, India, Australia and New Zealand, trying to form a
   regional trade bloc with ASEAN."Rather than being excluded from the
   process, Taiwan would like to take part in it and beat Japan and South
   Korea to the punch, " Chiang said.An active role for Taiwan in the region
   would preserve the dynamism of its economy and strengthen its confidence
   in cooperating more closely on trade with China, to the benefit of both
   sides, Chiang said.He contended that such cooperation will lay a solid
   foundation for the peaceful development between Taiwan and China.Zhang
   Mingqing, the vice president of China's Association for Relations Across
   the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) and the head of China's delegation to the
   seminar, did not respond to Chiang's appeal.Instead, he lauded the
   conclusion of the ECFA in his speech, calling it a milestone in ties
   between Beijing and Taipei that will set a new stage for bilateral
   relations.The trade pact, clinched on June 29, is a preliminary form of
   free t rade pact and an attempt by the two sides to institutionalize their
   trade relations.Taiwan hopes the pact will help it negotiate similar trade
   pacts with other states, but Beijing has been reluctant to see it sign
   pacts with other states fearing they would give international legitimacy
   to Taiwan's push to be recognized as a sovereign state.The annual seminar
   on China's modernization, which opened here on Monday, was jointly staged
   by ARATS and the private Academic Foundation for Advancing Chinese
   Modernization in Taipei.More than 40 scholars from Taiwan and China are
   attending this year's seminar.(Description of Source: Taipei Central News
   Agency in English -- "Central News Agency (CNA)," Taiwan's major state-run
   press agency; generally favors ruling administration in its coverage of
   domestic and international affairs; URL: http://www.cna.com.tw)

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   source cited. Permission for use must be ob tained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   24) Back to Top
   Foreign Airlines Making Inroads Into Korea
   By Kwon Mee-yoo - The Korea Times Online
   Monday August 2, 2010 12:00:26 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul The Korea Times Online in English -- Website
   of The Korea Times, an independent and moderate English-language daily
   published by its sister daily Hanguk Ilbo from which it often draws
   articles and translates into English for publication; URL:
   http://www.koreatimes.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   &lt; a name="t25"&gt;25) Back to Top
   Airasia Joins Budget Airline Boom in Korea
   By Shin Hyon-hee - The Korea Herald Online
   Monday August 2, 2010 11:40:52 GMT
   (Description of Source: Seoul The Korea Herald Online in English --
   Website of the generally pro-government English-language daily The Korea
   Herald; URL: http://www.koreaherald.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   26) Back to Top
   RSA's Ambassador-Designate to Canada Admits to Involvement in Plagiarism
   Scandal
   Report by Mandy Roussouw: "New Envoy in Plagiarism Sc andal" - Mail &amp;amp;
   Guardian
   Monday August 2, 2010 12:18:32 GMT
   (Description of Source: Johannesburg Mail &amp;amp; Guardian in English -- A
   credible and reliable weekly newspaper mainly owned by Zimbabwean
   publisher Trevor Ncube's Newtrust Company Botswana Limited. It is known
   for its in-depth, investigative reporting and for uncovering government
   corruption cases. Its editorials tend to be critical of government
   policies)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   27) Back to Top
   China Economic News in Brief: Harbin Auto Show; Jiangsu Aviation Sector;
   Jiangxi Exports; Beijing Tourism Figures&lt; br&gt;Xinhua: "China Economic News
   in Brief: Harbin Auto Show; Jiangsu Aviation Sector; Jiangxi Exports;
   Beijing Tourism Figures" - Xinhua
   Monday August 2, 2010 08:46:01 GMT
   BEIJING, Aug. 2 (Xinhua) -- The following are China economic news items in
   brief: INT'L AUTO SHOW OPENS IN NE CHINA CITY

   Harbin, capital of northeast China's Heilongjiang Province, Monday opened
   its 13th international auto show, featuring 458 automakers from 11
   countries and regions.With an exhibition space of 95,000 square meters,
   the eight-day event has 637 vehicle models on display. Included are
   Bentley, Porsche, Hummer, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Lexus, Cadillac, Land Rover,
   Nissan, Mitsubishi, Subaru, Peugeot, Jaguar and Volkswagen.Harbin began to
   hold international auto show in 1998. JIANGSU'S AVIATION SECTOR
   ACCOMODATES 40 PCT MORE PASSENGERSEast China's Jiangsu Province recorded
   78,000 aircraft landin gs and departures at its seven airports in the
   first half, up 13.5 percent from the same period last year, according to
   the provincial transport authorities.The province's aviation sector
   handled 8.12 million passengers in the six months, up 20.5 percent year on
   year, as well as 147,000 tonnes of cargo and mail, up 26.6
   percent.International air transport accounted for 559,000 passengers, up
   40.4 percent, and 18,000 tonnes of cargo and mail, up 15.3 percent.
   JIANGXI'S EXPORTS TO EMERGING MARKETS UPEast China's Jiangxi Province
   registered 8.71 billion U.S. dollars in foreign trade in the first half, a
   rise of 63.4 percent from the same period last year, according to the
   provincial commerce authorities.The total included 5.13 billion U.S.
   dollars in export value, up 74.7 percent, and 3.58 billion dollars in
   import value, up 49.6 percent.The province's exports to the top three
   traditional markets -- the European Union, the United States and Hong Kong
   -- increased 89.3 percent, 71.3 percent and 50.8 percent,
   respectively.Exports to emerging markets rose, with exports to ASEAN
   members up 87.5 percent, India 87.8 percent, Iran 380 percent and Brazil
   260 percent. VISITORS TO BEIJING UP 26.5 PCT IN FIRST HALFChina's capital
   received 2.32 million tourists in the first half, a rise of 26.5 percent
   year-on-year. The total included 1.98 million foreign visitors, up 30.2
   percent.The United States, Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK) accounted
   for 36.3 percent of the total. Visitors from the United States numbered
   323,000, up 22.3 percent, those from Japan numbered 266,000, up 49.2
   percent, and those from the ROK, 252,000, up 45.1 percent.(Description of
   Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for
   English-language audiences (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   28) Back to Top
   Qatari Paper Comments on Suspending Blackberry Services in Several Gulf
   States
   Editorial: "What Next After the BlackBerry Ban in UAE, Saudi?" - Gulf
   Times Online
   Monday August 2, 2010 11:11:20 GMT
   The UAE's Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (TRA) said it took the
   drastic measure "after failing to make progress in repeated attempts to
   make BlackBerry services compatible" with the country's legal framework.
   "Due to its technical nature, some BlackBerry services, like the
   messenger, e-mail, and web browsing, remain beyond the implementation of
   local laws," the TRA said, while Saudi Arabia has only banned its
   messenger service.

   When the revolutionary device was first introduced by Ca nadian company
   Research In Motion (RIM) more than 10 years ago, it was targeted at
   high-flying executives and businessmen who needed to stay in touch with
   their contacts 24/7. But gradually, the BlackBerry became a "cool" gadget
   to be spotted with for even college students and "average" Joes in 10 to 5
   jobs.

   In the UAE, it seems, it became far too popular for its own good as
   authorities sensed it could "allow individuals to commit violations
   without being subject to legal accountability, which would lead to
   dangerous implications on the social, judicial and national security."The
   move would affect an estimated 500,000 BlackBerry users in a country that
   has established itself as a major business hub, mainly in the bustling
   emirate of Dubai.

   Other Gulf states also have problems with BlackBerry services that bypass
   censorship and surveillance monitoring systems. Bahrain and Kuwait have
   also voiced concerns and India had warned on Wedn esday that it would shut
   down the BlackBerry service completely unless encrypted e-mail and other
   data services became readable by security services.Admittedly, the Gulf is
   politically a high-strung region, but should the state be monitoring
   people's e-mails and Internet chatrooms? In this era of WikiLeaks,
   satellite imagery and what have you, can there be any more secrets worth
   keeping?

   (Description of Source: Doha Gulf Times Online in English -- Website of
   independent newspaper with close ties to the ruling family; sister
   publication of influential daily Al-Rayah; focuses on domestic affairs;
   URL: http://www.gulf-times.com/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   29) Back to Top
   Moldova Becomes First Country To Destroy Cluster Munitions - Interfax-AVN
   Online
   Monday August 2, 2010 11:24:38 GMT
   intervention)

   CHISINAU. Aug 2 (Interfax-AVN) - The Moldovan military have completed the
   destruction of the last cluster munitions from the National Army arsenals
   at a testing range of the Bulboaka military base."The completion of the
   operation means that Moldova has become the world's first country to have
   destroyed cluster munitions from its military arsenals," the Defense
   Ministry said.It was reported that the Moldovan National Army has, in
   particular, more than 800 projectiles and 78 cluster bombes made in
   1961-1987. Their service life has long expired.The mission to destroy
   cluster munitions was accomplished in line with Moldova's commitment to
   strengthen regional security. Under a memorandum agreement signed between
   the Moldovan Defense Ministry and Norwegian Peoples Aid, a nongovernmental
   organization, on December 14, 2009, the army has received technical aid
   for destroying cluster munitions.The project is worth 108,000 euros, of
   which 61,000 were contributed by the Spanish government and 47,000 by the
   Norwegian Foreign Ministry.Moldova signed the Convention on Cluster
   Munitions in December 2008. The Convention bans production, storage, use
   and transportation of this kind of munitions. The document was signed by
   98 nations. Russia, the United States and China, who manufacture and
   possess the largest arsenals of such munitions, as well as India, Pakistan
   and Israel, which consider them an efficient and indispensable weapon,
   have refused to sign the agreement.(Description of Source: Moscow
   Interfax-AVN Online in English -- Website of news service devoted to
   military news and owned by the independent Interfax news agency; URL:
   http://www.militarynews.ru)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighte d by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   30) Back to Top
   UN Must Take Up Forgotten Kashmir Issue, End India Tyranny
   Article by Muhammad Farooq Rehmani: Kashmiris be Heard as Kosovo - The
   Frontier Post Online
   Monday August 2, 2010 11:23:34 GMT
   Some elements may raise eyebrows at it, but an overwhelming majority of
   the people had liked the Declaration of independence by Kosovo in February
   2008. Now there is another happy development on July 22, 2010; the
   International Court of Justice has issued an advisory opinion on the
   following question posed to it by Serbia, "Is the Unilateral Declaration
   of Independence by the Provisional Institutions of Self Governm ent of
   Kosovo in accordance with International Law?" By a 10-4 majority, the
   court ruled that, because "general international law contains no
   applicable prohibition of declarations of independence", Kosovo's
   declaration of independence in February 2008, coordinated with and
   supported by the American and most EU governments and subsequently
   recognised by 69 countries, "did not violate general international law".
   The clear implication is that no declarations of independence violate
   international law and that all are, therefore, "legal". Based upon the
   above Judgment John V. Whitbeck, an international lawyer has strongly
   advocated independence for Palestine in the "Arab News" that "in American
   and EU eyes, a Kosovo declaration of independence from Serbian sovereignty
   should be recognised even if Serbia does not agree. However, their (US and
   EU) attitude was radically different when Palestine declared independence
   from Israeli oc cupation on Nov. 15, 1988. Then the US and the EU
   countries (which, in their own eyes, constitute the "international
   community", to the exclusion of most of mankind) were conspicuously absent
   when over 100 countries recognised the new State of Palestine, and their
   non recognition made this declaration of independence purely "symbolic" in
   their own eyes and, unfortunately, in most Palestinian and other eyes as
   well. For the US and the EU, any Palestinian independence, to be
   recognised and legally effective, must still be directly negotiated, on a
   wildly unequal bilateral basis, between the occupying power and the
   occupied people -- and must be agreed to by the occupying power. For the
   US and the EU, the rights and desires of a long-suffering and brutalized
   occupied people, as well as international law, are irrelevant." We welcome
   the majority judgment of the ICJ on the question of the unilateral
   Declaration of independence by Kosovo from Serbia and al so favour
   arguments forwarded by John V. Whitebeck in favour of the statehood of
   Palestinians. We believe that there should be no slavery or subjugation or
   colonisation or occupation or brutalising of any human race in this world.
   According to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the Law of God
   people have the right to be free and to shape their destiny according to
   their values of life. Universal peace can only be achieved by being kind
   to humanity all over the world without any distinction of race, religion
   or caste. Here is Kashmir, the oldest unresolved dispute on the agenda of
   the Security Council, with about 14 UN resolutions urging India and
   Pakistan to grant the right of self-determination to the people of Jammu
   and Kashmir. The Security Council had laid emphasis on the principle of
   plebiscite to be applied to the disputed state to ascertain the wishes of
   the inhabitants of the region on their destiny. To mean business it
   nominated Gen. Nimitz as administrat or to hold and supervise plebiscite
   in Jammu and Kashmir. Both India and Pakistan gave assurances to the
   people of Kashmir to respect their decision under the principle of
   referendum. In this regard India's first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru
   said to the All India Congress Committee on 6th July, 1951, "People seem
   to forget that Kashmir is not a commodity for sale or to be bartered. It
   has an individual existence and its people must be the final arbiters of
   their future." Again Nehru stated on 26th June, 1952 in the Indian Parli
   ament: "If, after a proper plebiscite, the people of Kashmir said: 'We do
   not want to be with India', we are committed to accept that. We will
   accept it though it might pain us. We will not send any army against them.
   We will accept that, howeve r hurt we might feel about it, we will change
   the Constitution, if necessary." On 7th Aug, 1952 he said: "I want to
   stress that it is only the people of Kashmir who can decide the f uture of
   Kashmir. It is not that we have merely said that to the United Nations and
   to the people of Kashmir, it is our conviction. "I started with the
   assumption that it is for the people of Kashmir to decide their own
   future. We will not compel them. In that sense, the people of Kashmir are
   sovereign." The then Indian and Pakistani Prime Ministers--Mohamed Ali and
   Pt. Nehru met in the aftermath of 1953 uprising by the Kashmiris in Delhi
   and issued a Declaration to reaffirm their commitments on conducting
   plebiscite in the state under the auspices of the UN organisation.
   Unfortunately, India under one pretext or other did not abide by its
   international commitments on Kashmir. And on the contrary enhanced its
   military strength to perpetuate terror and illegal occupation, and make
   draconian laws to imprison and kill Kashmiris. India's state terrorism
   forced Kashmiris to launch a mass struggle against the occupation forces.
   This has resulted in so much bloodshed of K ashmiris. The current uprising
   is writing on the wall, which is asking India to stop hoodwinking the
   world opinion as the Kashmiris are not any commodity for sale and purchase
   and they will not tolerate brutalizing campaign for long. The people of
   Kashmir equally do not believe in changing the nature of the Kashmir
   dispute from a tripartite question to a bilateral position. Therefore, the
   world body should take note of the current developments in Kashmir and
   initiate measures as they did in Kosovo to resolve the issue with the help
   of all the three stakeholders--the Kashmiris, Pakistan and India. The
   United Nations, having upheld the unilateral declaration of Independence
   by Kosovo, should also take up the forgotten Kashmir problem and
   accordingly endorse the peaceful demand of the Kashmiris for freedom to
   ensure a durable peace in the region. For realising that end and moving
   towards the final resolution of Jammu and Kashmir the international
   community (especially US and UK ) in general and the UN Security Council
   in particular should use all its moral, political, economic, and
   diplomatic influence in order to 1. Stop forth with the ongoing killings
   of the innocent Kashmiris. 2. Achieve a speedy withdrawal of over 600,000
   Indian forces from the region. 3. Facilitate a tripartite resolution
   process towards a just and durable settlement in line with the right of
   self-determination of the Kashmiris. The concern over the current state of
   affairs in Kashmir as showed by the UN Chief Ban ki-Moon should not stop
   only there but the Chief of the world body should see how the Indian guns
   become silent, thick clouds of tyranny vanish and the sun of freedom beams
   over Kashmir.

   (Description of Source: Peshawar The Frontier Post Online in English --
   Website of a daily providing good coverage of the Northwest Frontier
   Province, Afghanistan, and narcotics issues; URL:
   http://www.thefrontierpost.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is genera lly copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   31) Back to Top
   India-UK Business Collaboration Goes 'Green' at Camerons Initiative
   Commentary by Premila Nazareth Satyanand, writes on foreign direct
   investment issues; courtesy: UN Information Center, New Delhi: Climate
   Change in the U.K.-India Partnership - The Hindu Online
   Monday August 2, 2010 11:05:22 GMT
   Climate change, till now a 'global' issue, is inserting itself into
   India's bilateral agenda as well. For, at David Cameron's initiative, it
   is to be a central leg of the strategic new U.K.-India relationship.
   Business collaboration goes 'green' Collaboration has begun with the
   U.K.-India Business Lea ders Climate Group. Comprising well-known CEOs,
   the group will work jointly on national emissions-reduction strategies,
   private sector-driven low-carbon models, and synergistic business
   opportunities.Given climate change's stated importance in the U.K.-India
   partnership, policy-makers and business leaders in both countries might
   find it useful to leaf through UNCTAD's just-released World Investment
   Report 2010: Investing in a Low-Carbon Economy, which examines global
   flows of 'low carbon' foreign direct investment and proposes strategies to
   encourage it.The report makes two essential points, which if implemented
   could significantly enrich the U.K.-India initiative. One: transnational
   corporations should be factored into global efforts to mitigate climate
   change, since they are both principal greenhouse gas emitters and 'low
   carbon' technology innovators, Two: it might be time for governments to
   expand the climate change discourse beyond a single-minded focus on
   national targ ets to incorporate performance milestones for individual
   firms. (In fact, going a step further, U.K.'s Environment Minister has
   broached the subject of tradeable carbon credits for each individual
   Briton).It also presents a number of ideas for the two nations to pilot
   within their partnership, while using their joint experience to advance
   the climate change effort at the global level. For instance, FDI could be
   mainstreamed into low-carbon development strategies, with both countries
   working together to promote and support low-carbon investors and encourage
   strategic technology. They also need to ensure that policies incentivise,
   reward, and create a market for low-carbon investments, while
   incorporating climate-friendly provisions (including low-carbon investment
   promotion and environmental exceptions) into investment agreements. The
   report also suggests the establishment of an international low-carbon
   technical assistance centre, combining a global low-carbon technology dat
   abase with advisory and support services.The most compelling idea is the
   creation of a single global standard for corporate greenhouse gas
   emissions disclosure, which would significantly boost the accuracy of
   emissions monitoring and correction. The report finds 87 of the world's
   100 largest transnational corporations reporting on emissions, many
   voluntarily. But it also finds two common gaps in this reporting. First,
   nearly a half of those that report are failing to specify the source of
   emissions -- i.e. own operations, value chain, or energy use. Second, only
   21 disaggregate their emissions by country.In choosing practical
   initiatives to seed the U.K.-India environmental partnership, the U.K.
   government and the Business Leaders Climate Group might encourage British
   TNCs in India to report in detail on their local greenhouse gas emissions.
   This would be the most powerful way by which to establish the U.K.'s dual
   commitment to India and environmental protection. It would al so be a
   major step in advancing global and Indian 'best practice' in emissions
   disclosure. Voluntary carbon-emissions reporting Carbon disclosure is
   already a well-established practice in the U.K., and its Carbon Disclosure
   Project (CDP) runs an annual survey of corporate emissions-reporting/
   environmental management practices among British firms. By publicly
   reporting findings, CDP encourages firms to continually improve
   environmental performance, and keeps the public, policy-makers and
   investors in the loop. Since 2007, CDP has run a similar survey in India,
   funded by the British High Commission as part of its 'Low Carbon High
   Growth Programme. Survey results highlight areas for shared improvement.In
   CDP 2009, Indian firms performed as well, if not better, than U.K.
   counterparts on basic parameters, such as measuring and recording
   emissions, separating them by source, and in setting reduction targets.
   But U.K. firms considerably outperform Indian counterparts in public rep
   orting on a variety of key parameters, including emissions, reduction
   targets, and emissions forecasts. They are also far ahead in isolating,
   measuring and reporting value-chain emissions.More important, many of
   U.K.'s top carbon disclosers -- which outperform U.K. counterparts by a
   20-points average -- have a large and committed India presence. Among them
   are Unilever, Royal Dutch Shell, HSBC, Barclays, GlaxoSmithKline, Thomas
   Cook, Reckitt Benckiser, AstraZeneca, Aviva, and Royal Bank of Scotland,
   who outperform counterparts by 30 (out of a potential 100) points on the
   very parameters in which Indian firms are the weakest. All these firms are
   visible corporate citizens in India, and run active environmental and
   social responsibility programmes.There is thus much scope for a productive
   U.K.-India partnership on improved carbon disclosure. With climate change
   now firmly on the corporate agenda, Indian firms are actively looking to
   develop best practice across a variety of re lated areas. The U.K. and
   India in the global 'low-carbon' FDI picture A word of warning, though.
   While the U.K.-India environmental partnership is to rest on private
   sector collaboration, the World Investment Report shows that the U.K. is
   still a minor player in global low carbon FDI. . Only BP features in its
   ranking of Top 20 foreign direct investors in the alternative/renewable
   energy generation, and only three U.K. firms -- BP, Bronzeoak, and D1 Oils
   -- feature as Top 20 investors in environmental technologies manufacturing
   (i.e. the production of wind turbines, solar panels, bio-diesel plants,
   and other environmental equipment).BP made only nine of the 728
   international greenfield investments in alternative/ renewable energy
   generation between 2003-2009; all these in developed economies. BP made
   twelve of the 806 greenfield international investments in
   environmental-technology manufacture in this period, ten in developed
   economies. Bronzeoak made six and D1 Oil five; a ll in developing
   economies. The World Investment Report provides no indication on the size
   of these various investments.This data is based on UNCTAD's analysis of
   the 1,725 international greenfield investments and 281 mergers and
   acquisitions in renewables, recycling and low-carbon technology
   manufacturing between 2003-2009 - collectively worth US$344 billion. Of
   these, 806 greenfield investments were in environmental-technology
   manufacture: nearly a half in developing economies. The 728 greenfield
   alternative/renewable energy investments and the 129 greenfield recycling
   investments concentrated in developed economies. In all cases, India has
   been an important destination.The report also surveyed 240 leading TNCs to
   find climate change squarely on their agenda. 45 per cent of respondents
   said they factor host countries' GHG emissions-reduction requirements in
   planning investments, 32 per cent use in-house technologies, know-how and
   skills to reduce GHG emission in foreign pr ojects, and 31 per cent use
   international M&amp;amp;As to obtain technologies and other created assets
   related to emissions reductions. Balancing conflicting Indian interests
   But, the more committed India becomes to a low-carbon paradigm, the more
   carefully its policymakers will need to balance conflicting Indian
   interests.Take solar power. The government's new policy on grid-connected
   projects targets 100 per cent local equipment sourcing. This requirement
   could be counter-productive, in limiting our solar industry to a handful
   of (relatively new) local suppl iers, whose equipment is often costlier
   than international competitors'. Financing might also be more difficult
   initially, since financiers are more confident about tried-and-tested
   equipment. Most worryingly, we might be blocking our industry from
   immediate access to important solar innovations internationally.Another
   case in point is thermal power, where cost is still the defining parameter
   for technology choice, as a result of which we now liberally source power
   equipment from China, although it is considerably more polluting than
   costlier European and American models.

   (Description of Source: Chennai The Hindu Online in English -- Website of
   the most influential English daily of southern India. Strong focus on
   South Indian issues. It has abandoned its neutral editorial and reportage
   policy in the recent few years after its editor, N Ram, a Left party
   member, fell out with the Bharatiya Janata Party-led government and has
   become anti-BJP, pro-Left, and anti-US with perceptible bias in favor of
   China in its write-ups. Gives good coverage to Left parties and has
   reputation of publishing well-researched editorials and commentaries; URL:
   www.hindu.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   32) Back to Top
   Apple Daily: Taiwan Torn Between Two Powers
   By Lillian Lin - Central News Agency
   Monday August 2, 2010 07:23:45 GMT
   China's Defense Ministry spokesman Geng Yansheng said last Friday that
   with the establishment of military security and mutual trust across the
   Taiwan Strait, the mainland and Taiwan can discuss anything, even China's
   withdrawal of missiles, under the one-China principle.

   The one-China principle is not recognized, in any way, in Taiwan.The
   legislators of the ruling and opposition parties all agree on this.It was
   the first time that Beijing made such a suggestion, and its interest in
   having that discussion has pricked the curiosity of sensitive observers of
   China affairs.Why is Beijing so eager to raise this topic? It could be
   because of an internal fact or -- the expiry of Hu Jintao's presidency in
   2012 and his desire to leave a legacy of Taiwan's unification with China.
   With this in mind, Beijing may be worrying about a possible change of
   government in Taiwan and thinking it should inject political issues into
   cross-Taiwan Strait relations during Ma Ying-jeou
   presidency.Internationally, China is also feeling pressure as result of
   recent developments. With the end of the honeymoon period between U.S.
   President Barack Obama and China, the differences between the two sides
   have become even more obvious. The reports of China's growing influence
   have caused worry and fear among Southeast Asian countries, and they hope
   the U.S. will remain as a counterbalancing force in the region.On the
   other hand, China is anxious to make a breakthrough in the island chain in
   the West Pacific. Beijing may find it easier to ally with Taiwan than with
   Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines or India against the U.S.
   With Taiwan neutralized, China would stand a better chance of breaking the
   blockade.If it achieves unification with Taiwan, China would reap even
   bigger strategic rewards. Forcing Taiwan to accept the one-China principle
   is a means of getting Taiwan to take China's side.(editorial abstract,
   Aug. 2, 2010)(Description of Source: Taipei Central News Agency in English
   -- "Central News Agency (CNA)," Taiwan's major state-run press agency;
   generally favors ruling administration in its coverage of domestic and
   international affairs; URL: http://www.cna.com.tw)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   33) Back to Top
   Pakistan Article Says US Silence on Headley Issue Strengthen Indian
   Propaganda
   Report by Mo min Iftikhar: Headley, LeT and the Indian spin doctors -
   The News Online
   Monday August 2, 2010 11:28:38 GMT
   The signs are getting glaringly obvious that India's hyped up and
   jaundiced security vision of the terrorism threat in the south Asian
   Region is being accepted by the US security agencies either out of sheer
   ignorance of the ground realities or simply as a convenient expedient for
   acquiring a handle to push Pakistan to do more. Ratcheting up of Lashkar e
   Tayyaba (LeT), an Organization that was totally confined to supporting the
   struggle for freedom in Kashmir, is now fast acquiring the media profile
   of a universal threat that is only notches short of al-Qaeda in its
   potential for precipitating a global catastrophe. Taking their lead and
   encouragement from US the Indians are using the latest episode of Headley
   interrogation under the gaze of FBI to score propaganda points against
   Pakistan.

   The metamorphism of the Kashmir centric organization into one threatening
   strategic upheaval has been deviously manipulated by the Indian spin
   doctors, who using well coined sound bytes and raising the rhetoric to
   highest rungs of political leadership have managed to link up the struggle
   of independence in Kashmir to the scourge of terrorism.

   An unceasing tirade of propaganda that links each and every incident of
   terrorism in India to LeT, ISI and Pakistan, is creating a gallery of
   mirrors where it becomes extremely difficult to sift through illusion and
   reality. The episode of an American, David Coleman Headley (in the Indian
   media parlance; Pakistani- American Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorist) is the
   latest addition to the gallery of rogues, which the Indian media and
   establishment have created to hold Pakistan to ransom. US to its part is
   keeping mum, as the Indian leadership uses the alleged association of the
   American citizen with LeT to harangue Pakis tan.

   Headley, 49, the son of a Pakistani diplomat father and an American mother
   was arrested by the FBI in September 2009 over charges of involvement in
   the planning of 26 November attacks in Mumbai that left a gory trail of
   166 dead. Born in Washington and spending his teen years in Pakistan, he
   left for US at the age of 17, in 1977, where her mother had moved
   following a split with her husband. Having morphed into the shady life of
   a drug dealer in the 90's he was apprehended in a sting operation in Feb
   97 and was recruited as an informant for the Drug Enforcement
   Administration (DEA). The DEA frequently dispatched him to Afghanistan and
   Pakistan to meet with drug barons where he came into touch with militants,
   including splinter groups of LeT who were harbored in the FATA badlands
   after going underground following the government crackdown in 2001. The
   indictment in a Chicago court charged that Headley scouted targets in
   Mumbai for more than two years to set up the 2008 attacks. He was also
   accused of planning an attack on a Danish paper, which published
   blasphemous cartoons offensive to Muslims in the extreme. The matter is
   pending in the court but the US government's decision to let a four member
   team of Indian National Investigation Agency (NIA) question Headley in Jun
   this year has given another twist to the Headley saga.

   While the US authorities are silent as to what specific revelations have
   been made by Headley to the Indian investigators, Indian spin-doctors are
   relishing the opportunity to malign Pakistan. Indian Home Secretary GK
   PIllai's remarks, just before the 15 July meeting between the Indo-Pak
   Foreign Ministers, alleging that Headley had confirmed the involvement of
   Pakistan in the Mumbai attacks, played a major role in vitiating the
   environment for resumption of the Indo-Pak dialog that is gathering
   cobwebs in the aftermath of the Mumbai attacks. Another Headley related
   story has brought back to news the name of Ishrat Jehan; a 19 year old who
   was killed on 15 June 2004 in a fake encounter by the Gujarat Police on
   the pretext that she was a LeT operative tasked to assassinate the much
   hated Chief Minister of Gujarat Narendra Modi.

   The encounter, in which three other persons, two of them claimed to be
   Pakistanis, was later declared fake by the Metropolitan Magistrate S P
   Tamang. DIG Vanzara of the Guajrat Police, who led the encounter, is now
   in jail and the trial is in the final stages of being wrapped up in the
   Gujarat High Court. Ishrat's family has rubbished the media reports, which
   quote Headley (without any confirmation from the government sources) to
   endorse the identity of Ishrat as a LeT agent. "We think that the report
   is baseless. And if it is true why is the Home Ministry not issuing a
   statement to confirm it," said Ishrat's mother. How can Headley speak
   about an incident, which occurred in 2004 whereas he reportedly came to
   India in 2007, She asks.
   &lt; br&gt;What has Headley told his Indian interrogators in the FBI cell
   remains a mystery. US government has refused to take a position on what
   Headley divulged. "I don't see how I can comment from here. Anything I
   would say would either compromise intelligence information or an ongoing
   legal investigation," State Department spokesman, PJ Cowley told reporters
   during one of his daily press briefings. Indians have no such
   compunctions. A bonanza provided through an access to Headley has given
   them a propaganda opportunity, which will be exploited to the hilt by the
   spin-doctors. As demonstrated by Pillai on the eve of the Indo-Pak Foreign
   Minister level talks and media reports concerning the fake encounter case
   of Ishrat Jehan, heresy and leaks based on what Headley shared - or didn't
   share - with India's National Investigation Agency sleuths are the order
   of the day in India's relentless propaganda war against Pakistan. US'
   silence on the Headley interrogation is only le nding strength to the
   Indian propaganda tirade. As a damage control measure, US need to come
   clean in order to reduce the vitriolic ambience that has taken hold of the
   South Asian interactions.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The News Online in English -- Website of
   a widely read, influential English daily, member of the Jang publishing
   group. Neutral editorial policy, good coverage of domestic and
   international issues. Usually offers leading news and analysis on issues
   related to war against terrorism. Circulation estimated at 55,000; URL:
   http://www.thenews.com.pk/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   34) Back to Top
   Commentary Voices Concern Over 'Attempt To Silence' Media in India
   Commentary by S. Viswanathan under the rubric Readers' Editor: Online
   &amp;amp; Off line : Attacks on Media on the Rise in India - The Hindu
   Online
   Monday August 2, 2010 10:28:40 GMT
   A growing number of incidents of violence against, and restrictions on,
   journalists in several parts of India over the past few months has caused
   concern at the national and international level. July was a particularly
   bad month for the news media: they confronted hostility and intimidation
   from the Army, the police, anti-social elements, and militant communal
   organisations in Delhi, Maharashtra, Jammu and Kashmir, Manipur, Orissa,
   and Tamil Nadu.While Delhi and Mumbai witnessed vandalism let loose by a
   mob of religious bigots at the premises of two news television channels,
   it was the Army that imposed severe restrictions on journalists in
   J&amp;amp;K.In Orissa, the ongoing battle between owners of mines and
   industrial interests provided the background to physical attacks on
   journalists who dared to expose the clandestine operators and their
   exploitation of the poor and the marginalised. Attempt to silence the
   media In the evening of July 15, a mob allegedly belonging to Hindutva
   organisations stormed the office of the New Delhi-based TV Today network
   of the India Today group and vandalised whatever they could reach. The
   attack was in protest against the telecast of tapes showing "secret
   meetings" of a Hindutva organisation in which there were discussions on
   carrying out "terrorist attacks against meetings of Muslims." Headlines
   Today, the news channel of the TV Today network, had telecast the video
   footage.According to the channel, the video it telecast was extracted by
   investigation agencies from the laptop of one of the accused in the
   Malegaon blast case. The Cover Story of the latest issue of
   Frontline("Militant route to Hindu Ras htra," August 13, 2010) provides
   good insights into the whole episode.The attackers, armed with sticks,
   were on the rampage for about 15 minutes, causing damage to glass windows,
   doors, and furniture. Some security guards and officials were injured. The
   attackers did not spare the police personnel. Although the TV channel's
   officials had prior information about the attack and had informed the
   police, the custodians of law and order were caught on the wrong
   foot.Given the nasty circumstances, things could have gone much worse for
   those inside the building. It was clear that those who had set up the mob
   wanted to send a message to the news channel. Condemning the attack, the
   Editors Guild of India pointed out that such methods to try and silence
   the media would only backfire.Even as the office of the Headlines Today
   was being attacked, Zee 24, another TV news channel in Mumbai, came under
   Shiv Sena attack for picking up the news.It is well known that communalism
   and chauv inism of all shades are fiercely intolerant of criticism and
   dissent. Unless the state ensures that the fundamental rights in the
   secular Constitution, especially freedom of speech and expression, are
   meant to be enjoyed by all citizens, they will remain only on paper.
   Restrictions on movements of media persons The Vienna-based International
   Press Institute (IPI) has expressed its concern over reports that
   journalists are facing harassment in certain conflict-ridden States in
   India, notably Manipur and J&amp;amp;K.In Manipur, where security forces are
   involved in a confrontation with several armed gangs, newspapers stopped
   publication in protest against the forced entry of three gunmen into a
   journalist's house on July 21 for questioning him about a newspaper
   report. The print media announced a cessation of publication until the
   government took action against the intruders.In Jammu and Kashmir, the
   State Government had to seek the Army assistance after its efforts to
   control internal disorder among sections of people failed. The first thing
   the government did after the Army intervened was to impose severe
   restrictions on journalists. The officials followed it up by cancelling
   curfew passes issued to journalists and others. They also instructed the
   police and the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) n ot to allow any
   mediaperson to move around. In some instances, cameras were seized. In
   protest, the media organisations suspended operations for a couple of
   days. The protest at a national and international level forced at least a
   partial relaxation of the restrictions on newsgathering.Conditions in
   Orissa have been difficult for journalists wanting to report freely.
   According to a special report brought out by the Free House Speech, in the
   current year (2010) 12 cases of physical attacks on reporters, stringers,
   or photographers have been recorded. The report noted that "the most
   widely broadcast channels and the largest circulating daily are owned by
   powerful people. Given this reality, reporting the depredations caused by
   national and international business houses that have descended on the
   State to exploit its ample natural resources has become a perilous
   task."In Madurai in Tamil Nadu, the police arrested on July 22 S.
   Manimaran, Editor, Dina Bhoomi, a Tamil daily, and his son, for publishing
   articles on the business misdeeds of quarry owners in their newspapers.
   All manner of grave charges were initially recorded on the basis of a
   complaint made by an association of quarry owners that the daily had
   published a series of news items, "false and misleading," about their
   business. Illegal operations by quarry owners and the resultant loss of
   huge revenues to the State exchequer have been reported in the press from
   time to time. It took protests from several media organisations, and the
   intervention of the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister, to have the grave charges
   removed and the editor and his son relea sed on bail. That the relief came
   the very next day after the arrest highlighted the efficacy of media
   solidarity in bringing to public notice high-handed actions by the police
   in violation of accepted norms and procedures and indeed respect for
   freedom of expression.The rise in attacks on journalists in India is
   indeed a matter of concern. It is also heartening to see more and more
   journalists and their organisations venture into new areas of
   investigative journalism, even if they involve more resourcefulness,
   ingenuity, and risk to limb and life.

   (Description of Source: Chennai The Hindu Online in English -- Website of
   the most influential English daily of southern India. Strong focus on
   South Indian issues. It has abandoned its neutral editorial and reportage
   policy in the recent few years after its editor, N Ram, a Left party
   member, fell out with the Bharatiya Janata Party-led government and has
   become anti-BJP, pro-Left, and anti-US with perceptible bias in favo r of
   China in its write-ups. Gives good coverage to Left parties and has
   reputation of publishing well-researched editorials and commentaries; URL:
   www.hindu.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   35) Back to Top
   Pakistani Article Ridicules US Claim of Usama's Presence in Nation
   Article by Azim Sarwar: "Usama Is in Pakistan" - Jang
   Monday August 2, 2010 09:50:06 GMT
   officials rarely utter the truth and they also do not hesitate to confess
   their lies in public, like the former US Military Chief General Powell, in
   his capacity as the US secretary of state, said in the UNSC that Iraq had
   nuclear weapons and he even displayed photographs regarding this. After
   that so-called claim, the United States launched an attack on Iraq.
   Afterward, i.e., after the occupation, General Powell in a news conference
   said that his speech in the UNSC with regard to the Iraqi weapons was
   based on lies.

   Now, the incumbent Chief of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen has belligerently
   said that Usama is in Pakistan. This is a great truth that Pakistan should
   accept and should not issue statements against it. The reason is that Mike
   Mullen must have put forward these reports, which are supported by
   evidence received from the CIA agents, the US intelligence agency. Indian
   intelligence agency, RAW (Research and Analysis Wing), must also have
   given its opinion over it, and Israeli intelligence agency, Mosaad, must
   have supported it. This is why Mike Mullen roared in India and said,
   "Usama is in Pakistan."

   One of our friends says it might be possible that Usama is pre sent in the
   US Embassy in Pakistan. It is possible that his latest videos and
   statements are recorded over there. According to our friend, the confident
   tone of the US general evinces that Usama is in the custody of the US
   Ambassador W. Anne Patterson. He is present in Islamabad. Another friend
   of mine was telling that Usama was in Karachi and lived in a flat in
   Gulshan-e-Iqbal. He has changed his getup and now he looks like a
   20-year-old young man. He regularly comes to offer his prayers. His hair
   and beard is black. He is also pursuing his studies and has completed his
   bachelor degree from Karachi University. He speaks very good Urdu. If
   somebody asks him; "Where are you going Usama?" He responds in a
   particular style and says; "I am going to a bank."

   Another friend accepted this claim of our friends to prove Mike Mullen's
   claim true. He said; "O, dear! Disguise, called getup by your friends,
   should be learned from Usama. He is enjoying here the life of a
   20-year-old young man. Moreover, he suddenly transforms himself into a
   five or six years old child. Although the Americans call him a terrorist,
   however, when he disguises himself to a child, he starts crying over the
   slightest of rebuke and gets afraid. This friend told that he went to the
   airport to escort his maternal uncle. When the flight arrived, a child,
   who was aged between five or six, was jumping here and there and was
   accompanied by a woman. Once he went quite far away. After this, the woman
   called for him, "Usama...Usama stop there!"

   This created sensation among people, who had gathered there to receive the
   passengers. The woman cried again. "Usama come here. If you do not, I will
   break your bones."

   People saw that a terrified and trembling child, who was of five or six
   years, was coming toward the woman. When he reached close the woman, she
   gave him a sound jolt. After this, the child started weeping. The woman ag
   ain roared, "Usama, be silent," and people saw that terrified Usama became
   silent. This friend of mine told me that Usama's performance in the guise
   of a 5-year-old child was captivating. Nobody suspected that a great
   "terrorist," titled so by the US Administration, is present in the guise
   of a child.

   The US agent is reporting from different cities that Usama is present here
   in Pakistan. He gets his identity card from somewhere, and somewhere else,
   he is seen talking on his cell phone. He keeps on saying repeatedly,
   "Usama is speaking." Somewhere Usama comes to purchase the ticket of an
   airplane. A doctor was inspecting a patient in a hospital and after
   conducting different medical tests and x-rays on him, the doctor at the
   end started filling his test reports. When th e doctor asked the name of
   the patient, "the patient replied, "Usama...!!!" He only said that much
   and after this, the doctor got a shock and slipped from hi s chair. The
   staff immediately came forward to offer help to the doctor, and when he
   gained his senses, he said, "My brother! Pardon us. Silently go out and
   visit some other hospital. Go, I did not hear your name nor do I know you.
   I have not even examined you." The 16-year-old Usama was surprised and he
   left the hospital.

   When the agents report from every other place to the US higher agencies
   that Usama is found at several different places and that also at the same
   time, they think that Usama has obtained the latest technology, and with
   the support of that technology he is being seen in different cities at the
   same time. I asked my journalist friend: "When the United States knows
   that Usama is present in Pakistan, why is it not catching him?" My
   journalist friend said that that whenever Mike Mullen and other US people
   visited India and made such claims, they were taught in Lakhnavi manner,
   i.e., "You first." Then the United States asks P akistan; "You should
   arrest Usama first as you arrested Taliban ambassador Mullah Khurdaif
   (Mullah Zaeef) and handed over to us. Then we caught him afterward."

   Pakistan asks the United States; "If you know the whereabouts of Usama,
   you should arrest him first. We shall put that to our credit as we have
   taken the responsibility of your missile attacks in the past."

   I have taken help from my different friends to write this article. Another
   friend of mine is of the opinion that Pakistani Interior Minister Rehman
   Malik is going to launch "Catch Usama" campaign shortly. He will arrest
   every Usama seen in our country, whether he is in the guise of a
   2-year-old toddler or in the getup of an 80-year-old man, and hand him
   over to the United States. After his, he will say, "Sir! You informed us
   about a single Usama. It has been disclosed after investigations that
   around 2,200 Usamas are present over here. Take away all of them, and secu
   re your United States."

   (Description of Source: Rawalpindi Jang in Urdu  The War, an
   influential, largest circulation newspaper in Pakistan, circulation of
   300,000. One of the moderate Urdu newspapers, pro-free enterprise,
   politically neutral, supports improvement in Pakistan-India relations)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   36) Back to Top
   ULFA Coordinating Fund Collection Drive in Assam Districts
   Report by Pullock Dutta: ULFA Pitches Tent on Island - The Telegraph
   Online
   Monday August 2, 2010 09:43:59 GMT
   Guwahati, Aug 1 -- A 10-member group of ULFA has pitched tent on a few
   chaporis (sandbars) along the Brahmaputra river close to Majuli island to
   intensify its operations in the Upper Assam districts.Disclosing this,
   sources in the state intelligence bureau said the group was taking shelter
   at a few chaporis near Lakhimpur district and coordinating a fund
   collection drive in Lakhimpur, Jorhat and Golaghat districts.

   Accompanying illustration

   "The group, led by Biplab Barua of Sivasagar district, is using the river
   network and was shuttling between Sikoli Chapori and Charai Chapori till a
   few weeks back; it is distributing extortion notes among businessmen in
   Lakhimpur, Golaghat and Jorhat districts," the source said.In the early
   nineties, the outfit had made a similar plan to set up its operational
   headquarters at Majuli. The plan, however, did not materialise because of
   a massive operation launched by security forces on the island to flush out
   militants.According to sources, from Sikoli Chapori at least four channel
   s of the Brahmaputra have to be crossed to reach Narayanpur in Lakhimpur
   district and the militants were using country boats to cross over from one
   chapori to another."These chaporis are also close to Dergaon in Golaghat
   district," the source said. The militants, sources said, had recently
   purchased a few country boats for their convenience. "These boats have
   been handed over to a few permanent settlers of these small islands and
   the militants use these as and when required," the source said.According
   to police sources, the chaporis have a few permanent settlers who look
   after herds of cattle. A police official in Majuli said there was
   information about the presence of such a group at a few chaporis near the
   island."We have been conducting operations at a few chaporis but militants
   flee much before we reach these islands. It is also not easy to conduct
   operations on these islands, especially at Sikoli Chapori. It takes at
   least a full day to reach th ere and one has to cross several
   channels."The official said security forces were also keeping tabs on
   country boats plying on the Brahmaputra near Majuli.Assam police launched
   a drive last year to register country boats plying on the Brahmaputra and
   its tributaries to keep a watch on militants suspected to be using country
   boats to ferry weapons and explosives. The process, however, is yet to be
   completed.

   (Description of Source: Kolkata The Telegraph online in English -- Website
   of Kolkata's highest circulation English daily, owned by ABP Group, with a
   flagship publication Anandabazar Patrika in Bengali. Known for in-depth
   coverage of east and northeast India issues, and India-Bangladesh
   relations. Maintains an impartial editorial policy. Circulation 457,100;
   URL: www.telegraphindia.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding us e may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   37) Back to Top
   Govt Decides To Launch 24-Hour TV Channel for Rural Population, Farmers
   Report by Cithara Paul: 24x7 Channel for Farmer - The Telegraph Online
   Monday August 2, 2010 09:11:35 GMT
   New Delhi, Aug 1 -- Rural television viewers who want more than the
   half-an-hour of Krishi Darshan daily, there is good news. It may soon be
   beamed 24x7.The rural development ministry has decided to launch a 24-hour
   channel for India's large rural population to make them "adequately aware"
   of the government's umpteen schemes.Krishi Darshan would be the model --
   the proposed channel's programmes would deal with agriculture, land, water
   and sanitation. But "it will have interesting programmes such as reality
   and quiz shows, m usic and other performances. But every programme will
   have a rural touch", said a ministry official.So say, after a programme on
   how to preserve seeds, the viewer would also get to watch a reality show
   in which panchayats across the country would compete to highlight
   development in their areas and vie for a jackpot."The new channel will
   deal with all problems related to rural India and will also highlight the
   government's attempts to make rural life better," the official said,
   before quickly adding that the attempt should not be seen as a public
   relations exercise. "No, it won't be an extension of PIB (Press
   Information Bureau) advertisements. We want the channel to be able to
   bring the rural masses and the government closer."The brainwave for the
   channel is believed to be rural development minister C.P. Joshi's. He had
   told a meeting recently that the Centre's flagship programmes -- the
   Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, Swarnja yanti Gram
   Swarojgar Yojana, Indira Awaas Yojana, to name a few -- were not getting
   the publicity they deserved."Lack of information has not allowed the rural
   people to avail themselves of the facilities provided by many
   centrally-sponsored programmes worth Rs 70,000 crore," he had said.The
   official said the rural development ministry had held two rounds of talks
   with the information and broadcasting ministry. "I&amp;amp;B minister Ambika
   Soni is quite enthusiastic about the idea and has assured all possible
   help to launch the channel as soon as possible," the official said.Soni's
   ministry wants to transform one of the existing 17 Doordarshan channels
   into the rural channel, it is understood.Asked about the expenses, the
   official did not give figures but said the rural development ministry
   would provide the financial requirement while I&amp;amp;B would handle the
   production.Asked about its commercial viability, the official said that
   would not be a proble m as the ministry had enough funds to support the
   channel.

   (Description of Source: Kolkata The Telegraph online in English -- Website
   of Kolkata's highest circulation English daily, owned by ABP Group, with a
   flagship publication Anandabazar Patrika in Bengali. Known for in-depth
   coverage of east and northeast India issues, and India-Bangladesh
   relations. Maintains an impartial editorial policy. Circulation 457,100;
   URL: www.telegraphindia.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   38) Back to Top
   Assam Militant Group Leaders To Meet PM Singh To Discuss Autonomy Issue
   Report by Sarat Sarma: KLNLF To Meet Sonia, Singh - The Telegraph Online
   Monday August 2, 2010 09:50:08 GMT
   Nagaon, Aug 1 -- Representatives of the Karbi Longri NC Hills Liberation
   Front (KLNLF) will meet Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress chief
   Sonia Gandhi on August 14 on the autonomous state issue.A team of KLNLF
   leaders, led by the outfit's general secretary, Rejek Dera, will reach New
   Delhi on August 11.The team will have an official discussion with Centre's
   interlocutor P.C. Haldar and a meeting with the MPs from some of the the
   northeastern states."We want to share the common issues of the people of
   Karbi Anglong with the 'like-minded' MPs representing tribal-dominated
   constituencies of Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur. We want their
   support to our statehood struggle," Dera said."The government offered us
   that we should sit jointly with the United Peoples' Democratic Solidarity
   (UPDS), which is seeking a Karbi Anglong territorial council. This is
   impossib le as our demand is more than a territorial council and we will
   continue our struggle till our statehood demand is granted. This may
   either be under Article 244 (A) or Article 3 of the Constitution," he
   said.In June, the militant outfit submitted its charter of demands to the
   Union home ministry in which it included the statehood issue.On July 23,
   KLNLF leadership discussed the statehood demand with P.C. Haldar when he
   was in Guwahati."They (Dispur) asked us to refrain from Article 244 (A) as
   it is against government's present policy. But we do not think that our
   dialogue would proceed without that point," Dera said.He said their Delhi
   visit in August is basically to put pressure on the government for a
   serious and sympathetic consideration of the matter.The militant group was
   formed after a faction of UPDS leadership went for political dialogue with
   Delhi in August 2001. Initially, it was called the UPDS (anti-talks). In
   2003, the organisation was renamed the Karbi Longri NC Hills Liberation
   Front. On February 11, 412 KLNLF cadres laid down arms in Diphu and
   demanded a political solution to the hemprek kanthim (self-rule homeland)
   issue."Till now we have the Diphu designated camp. A week back a team
   visited Parakhowa and Rongmongwe where two more camps would be set up. The
   selection of these two sites came after the May sitting of the joint
   monitoring committee. Our demand is five designated camps and remaining
   two would perhaps be considered after the meeting is held in September,"
   Dera said.

   (Description of Source: Kolkata The Telegraph online in English -- Website
   of Kolkata's highest circulation English daily, owned by ABP Group, with a
   flagship publication Anandabazar Patrika in Bengali. Known for in-depth
   coverage of east and northeast India issues, and India-Bangladesh
   relations. Maintains an impartial editorial policy. Circulation 457,100;
   URL: www.telegraphindia.com)

   Material in the World News Co nnection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   39) Back to Top
   Assam Militant Group Releases Abducted Pune-Based Forest Official
   Unattributed report: Bodo Rebels Free Pune Official - The Telegraph
   Online
   Monday August 2, 2010 08:55:13 GMT
   Itanagar, Aug 1-- The Indian Forest Service official of the Maharashtra
   cadre, V.S. Bardekar, who was abducted from a village in Arunachal Pradesh
   by the anti-talks faction of the NDFB, was released at Dhekiajuli in Assam
   this evening.Militants snatched Bardekar from Daimara village of West
   Kameng district of Arunachal Pradesh, bordering Assam's Sonitpur district,
   on May 12. The Pune-based Bardekar was on a private visit to photograph
   butterflies in a wildlife sanctuary.Sources said the abductors released
   him after a Rs 1.4crore ransom which was scaled down from Rs 5 crore.The
   director-general of police of Arunachal Pradesh, Kanwaljit Deol, confirmed
   Bardekar's release late this evening but did not mention the
   ransom."Bardekar was released this evening by his abductors from their
   hideout at Dhekiajuli. More than two and half months of relentless effort
   by both the Assam and Arunachal governments ensured his safe return. I
   have this much to say as detailed information is awaited. His physical
   condition is said to be stable and he will be flown to Pune tomorrow,"
   Deol said.Officials from both states had been trying to negotiate the safe
   return of the IFS official for more than one month now.The forces
   initially zeroed in on Dhekiajuli after getting information on the
   location of an NDFB hideout but refrained from storming it lest the
   official was harmed.Bardekar, a cadre of the 1984 batch, who was posted in
   Pune as joint director, directorate of social forestry, was a butterfly
   enthusiast and had gone to Daimara village, which falls within the Eagle
   Nest wildlife sanctuary, known for its butterfly variety, on the evening
   of May 12.He was abducted by 11 youths, armed with automatic rifles and
   grenades, who arrived at the residence of former panchayat member Lama
   Norbu, where Bardekar was putting up, around 8pm.They beat up a casual
   worker of the Arunachal Pradesh forest department, Payao Magaji, and a
   guide, Gombu Tsering, who were accompanying Bardekar, and whisked the
   official away.

   (Description of Source: Kolkata The Telegraph online in English -- Website
   of Kolkata's highest circulation English daily, owned by ABP Group, with a
   flagship publication Anandabazar Patrika in Bengali. Known for in-depth
   coverage of east and northeast India issues, and India-Bangladesh
   relations. Maintains an impartial editorial policy. Circulatio n 457,100;
   URL: www.telegraphindia.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   40) Back to Top
   Cameron Must not Learn Ropes of UK Foreign Policy at Pakistan Expense
   Article by Taj M Khattak: An Ill-advised Utterance - The News Online
   Monday August 2, 2010 08:45:00 GMT
   Monday, August 02, 2010

   It is now a matter of conjecture but if, and remaining within diplomatic
   norms, our response to Mr Armitage's post-9/11 threat of bombing Pakistan
   back to the Stone Age had been more 'appropriate', there might have been
   fewer national insults hurled at us or, at least, the barbs would have
   been les s pointed. Be more painful is the seemingly lasting impression
   that Pakistan can be insulted and bullied around, which regrettably hasn't
   ceased ever since.

   The statement of British Prime Minister David Cameron, accusing Pakistan
   of 'export of terror' is the latest in a series. Former British foreign
   secretary David Miliband condemned Mr Cameron's statement and accused him
   of being a loudmouth. He even advised the prime minister to use his two
   ears and one mouth in the same proportion since there was a divine purpose
   in that ratio.

   American and British diplomats are usually very careful about what they
   say on Indian soil about Pakistan and vice versa. But the fact that Mr
   Cameron threw caution to the winds further strengthens the perception that
   every season is open season for Pakistan-bashing. His insistence that he
   didn't say anything inordinate is the ultimate rub.

   Mr Cameron's statement is reflective of his total insensitivity towards
   our government' s efforts in battling the curse of militancy. A few words
   of praise for the sacrifices rendered by our defence establishment and
   civilians fall too short in recognition and are nothing but mere
   lip-service. Hardly a day passes without innocent people dying in one part
   of Pakistan or another at the hands of terrorists. But that seems to be of
   least concern to the British prime minister.

   It is true that relations between states are very complex and mere
   statements should not cause major grievances. But an accusation of
   exporting terror when Pakistan has itself been the worst victim of
   terrorism in recent times is no ordinary thing.

   The British must be reminded -- and forever, if that is what it takes --
   that they bear a prime responsibility for the instability in this region
   for they left the Kashmir problem unresolved at Partition. As a colonial
   power withdrawing from the region, it was their responsibility, both moral
   and legal, to leave behind an orderly state of affairs.

   Needless to say, this does not absolve India and Pakistan from their
   respective responsibilities. They should have shown maturity like the rest
   of the world and cleared up the mess in the past six decades.

   While totally shattered Germany and Japan have, once again, moved on, and
   the past is another millennium for their populations, we are still bogged
   down in endless rounds of talks which, on every occasion, routinely
   produce more acrimony than any substantial progress. There is no let-up in
   overt or latent mutual distrust, hatred and hostilities, and that is sad.

   But lest they have forgotten the root cause of militancy in this region,
   the British must be repeatedly educated about the roles of the external
   powers which have created this Frankenstein monster. For from exporting
   terror, Pakistan itself is facing this disastrous phenomenon.

   The courage of the people suffering at the hands of terrorists needs to be
   acknowledged and apprec iated -- the latest example being the information
   minister of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa who has made his province proud. If Mr
   Cameron can't see what everyone else does, the least he can do is to keep
   quiet and not insult or hurt us.

   This is not something to be taken as meekly and subserviently as
   Armitage's threat and should not be disposed of by a mere demarche to the
   British high commissioner to Islamabad.

   The minimum the government could do was to cancel the presidential visit
   to London. Given the time between the demarche delivered and the
   presidential visit, it is unlikely that a formal response from London will
   be forthcoming before the president flies into the UK from France.

   One can't believe that it is the same ruling party whose founder-chairman,
   Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, walked out of the Commonwealth the moment Britain
   recognised Bangladesh even when the newly born country was gaining
   recognition by the day.

   Any demerits of that decision aside, i t can't be faulted even today on
   one count: it expressed the nation's displeasure loud and clear. The
   expression of displeasure certainly has regressed over time to meaningless
   demarches.

   One of the highlights of the presidential visit to the UK, as has been
   reported in the press, is the formal launching of young Bilawal as
   chairman of the PPP. If that happens to be the overriding factor in favour
   of the visit, it would be very unfortunate and no less insulting than the
   ill-advised utterances of Mr Cameron. An event such as this would be more
   suitable in a local setting. Besides, the expenses of the planned event
   are already a subject of discussion in the media.

   Our politicians' practice of making London the summer capital of Pakistan
   is not going down well with ordinary folks who are always a rupee too
   short and a day too late on resources and are committing suicide every
   day.

   The view of Wajid Shamsul Hasan, who is now famous for his yeoman service
   in other capitals on odd Sundays, that Mr Cameron is new in office and can
   be given the benefit of the doubt does not wash either, as the honourable
   British prime minister cannot be allowed to learn the ropes of his
   country's foreign policy at our expense.

   Mr Cameron could have been more even-handed by pointing to the thousands
   of innocent lives fallen to terrorism in Pakistan and the ongoing
   brutalisation of Kashmir and the atrocities committed there by the Indian
   troops.

   We are all terribly hurt and disappointed, Rt. Hon. David Cameron MP,
   Prime Minister of Britain. For the sake of Britain, may you have an
   enlightened tenure of office.

   The writer is a retired vice-admiral and former vice-chief of the naval
   staff.

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The News Online in English -- Website of
   a widely read, influential English daily, member of the Jang publishing
   group. Neutral editorial policy, good coverage of domestic and
   international issues. Usually offers leading news and analysis on issues
   related to war against terrorism. Circulation estimated at 55,000; URL:
   http://www.thenews.com.pk/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   41) Back to Top
   Protests in Kashmir 'Almost Entirely Run' by Hardliners
   Report by Muzaffar Raina: Moderates in a Corner - The Telegraph Online
   Monday August 2, 2010 08:35:52 GMT
   Srinagar, Aug 1 -- The Hurriyat moderates are finding themselves
   marginalised as never before, with the hardliners ruling the streets in
   Kashmir.The protests raging for seven weeks now has been almost entirely
   run by hardliners. They have t urned moderate stalwarts such as Mirwaiz
   Umar Farooq and Yasin Malik into spectators, unlike the 2008 Amarnath land
   row when both moderates and hardliners had called the shots."We have
   decided to start from where they (the hardliners) stop," said a senior
   leader of Malik's Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF), appearing
   reconciled to the fact that they have no role in the present
   agitation.Days before the current protests began, the JKLF had started a
   jail bharo (court arrest) campaign to protest rights violations, but the
   programme was called off after the present unrest showed no signs of
   abating.At the beginning of the agitation, which began on June 11, the
   Omar Abdullah government had sensed the trouble the hardliners could pose.
   It arrested the top leaders, including hawk Syed Ali Shah Geelani and his
   confidant Ashraf Sahrai.Even the high court bar association chief Mian
   Abdul Qayoom, considered close to Geelani, was arrested. All of them were
   booked under th e stringent Public Safety Act (PSA), which allows
   detention without trial for up to two years.Unlike the hardliners who were
   put in jail, the government preferred to keep the moderates such as the
   Mirwaiz, Bilal Lone and Agha Syed Hassan under house arrest. The JKLF's
   Malik was arrested but spared the PSA rod.In absence of leaders such as
   Geelani, the second-rung leadership of hardliners, including Masarat Alam
   and Asiya Andrabi, have taken charge. It is they who issue the weekly
   protest schedules of non-stop shutdowns and marches.But a moderate leader
   blamed the Centre for their irrelevance. "We hold Delhi responsible. They
   invited us for talks which were never meaningful. They were mere photo
   opportunities," a leader of the moderate faction said, referring to three
   rounds of talks between the Hurriyat and the NDA and UPA governments.The
   talks were stopped in 2005 and when the Centre revived a "quiet dialogue"
   last year, the militants nearly killed moder ate leader Fazal Haq Qureshi,
   giving a "quiet burial" to the process.Unlike hardliners who want Delhi to
   accept Kashmir as a disputed territory and offer major concessions before
   they join the talks, the moderates have been receptive to the idea of
   negotiations without conditions. But of late, they too have hardened their
   stance.Sources in the moderate camp now appear to be banking on the
   "failings" of the hardliners' protest to bounce back into the spotlight.
   "Daily shutdowns have caused immense hardship to people and there is lot
   of resentment. But the people are not coming forward to say so. But how
   long will this continue. There will be a space for us again," a moderate
   Hurriyat leader said.

   (Description of Source: Kolkata The Telegraph online in English -- Website
   of Kolkata's highest circulation English daily, owned by ABP Group, with a
   flagship publication Anandabazar Patrika in Bengali. Known for in-depth
   coverage of east and nort heast India issues, and India-Bangladesh
   relations. Maintains an impartial editorial policy. Circulation 457,100;
   URL: www.telegraphindia.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   42) Back to Top
   New Delhi Thinking to Release 200,000 to 256,000 Cusec Water Towards
   Pakistan
   Unattributed report: "India may release water towards Pak" - The Nation
   Online
   Monday August 2, 2010 08:35:51 GMT
   DASKA - It is feared that India may release a huge amount of flood water
   to the tune of 200,000 to 256,000 cusec today (Monday), inundating some
   areas of Pakistan, said the Sialkot Irrigation Department officials on
   Sunday.

   A huge inflow of flash floods is likely to pass through head Marala in
   River Chenab near Sialkot as the river is again in medium flood, the
   sources said.

   They believe that New Delhi might release 200,000 to 256,000 cusec water
   toward Pakistan, causing soaring up the water level at head Marala.

   Earlier, the flow of water registered a mark of 166,780 cusec on Sunday.
   It continues to rise after the ongoing fresh spell of heavy rains over the
   catchment areas of AJK.

   It is pertinent to mention here that four days ago, 268,000 cusec flood
   water passed through the head Marla safely.

   They maintain that water level is also rising in river Tavi, river Jammu,
   river Munawar and seasonal nullahs - Aik, Dek, Palkhu, Bhed and nullahs
   Baeen and in Bassuntar at Sialkot and Narowal districts respectively.

   All the departments concerned have already been put on high alert and the
   situation is being monitored round the clock, they sa id

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The Nation Online in English -- Website
   of a conservative daily, part of the Nawa-i-Waqt publishing group.
   Circulation around 20,000; URL: http://www.nation.com.pk)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   43) Back to Top
   Indian Air Force 'May Get' 6 Sea Planes for Security of Andaman, Nicobar
   Command
   Report by Sridhar Kumaraswami: "IAF May Get 6 Sea Planes" - The Asian Age
   Online
   Monday August 2, 2010 07:45:04 GMT
   New Delhi -- In a bid to boost security around the strategic tri-services
   Andaman and Nicobar Command and ensure adequate surveillan ce over the
   island chain, the Indian Air Force (IAF) is considering acquisition of
   about six amphibious sea planes that can operate from sea."Acquisition of
   amphibious sea-planes is being considered since these have a much longer
   range than helicopters which need helipads to land on. The sea planes will
   be used to move personnel to any of the islands in the chain, many of
   which are uninhabited. Sea-planes will also perform the task of
   surveillance," explained a source.Most of the islands in the chain are
   rocky and considered unsuitable for building of helipads on these.
   Proposed acquisition of the sea planes could come at a cost of over Rs 200
   crores.Following the Mumbai terror attacks, the threat perception of
   terrorists using the sea route has increased enormously. Further, the
   government is also anxious to ensure that no terror group is able to
   operate from and take over any of the uninhabited islands that form part
   of Indian territory.Acquisition of amphibious sea planes by the IAF will
   also boost India's maritime power and will augment the proposed growth in
   the aircraft and fleet strength of the Indian Navy which is hoping to
   acquire more indigenous aircraft carriers and naval fighter aircraft
   MiG-29 K apart from submarines with air independent propulsion (AIP) and
   stealth frigates that will be built at Indian shipyards.In fact, experts
   at a government conference held last year in the Andamans had called for
   the establishment of a nuclear power station in one of the islands in the
   chain and also bases from where aircraft carriers and nuclear-powered
   submarines could operate.Experts believe that the tri-services Andaman and
   Nicobar Command will have an increased significance in the next decade,
   considering the strategic location of the island.The Andaman and Nicobar
   Islands are geographically located closer to Southeast Asia than even the
   Indian mainland and give India a strategic presence in the Southeast Asian
   region.

   (D escription of Source: New Delhi The Asian Age Online in English --
   Website of the independent daily with good coverage of security issues.
   Harshly critical of US policies, run by T. Venkattram Reddy. Circulation
   estimated at 244,317, with an elite audience; URL:
   http://www.asianage.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   44) Back to Top
   About 200 Russian Servicemen To Travel To India For INDRA War Games -
   Interfax-AVN Online
   Monday August 2, 2010 07:32:56 GMT
   intervention)

   MOSCOW. Aug 2 (Interfax-AVN) - About 400 Russian service members will
   participate in the INDRA-2010 Russian-Indian wa r games in India in
   October, the North Caucasus Military District spokesman Lt. Col. Andrei
   Bobrun told Interfax-AVN."The sides have negotiated a plan of the upcoming
   maneuvers in consultations in Vladikavkaz, including the procedure of
   transferring the troops to the site of the drill," Bobrun said.Russia will
   send about 200 servicemen of the North Caucasus Military District to
   India, with India sending around the same number.An Indian delegation, led
   by representative of the Land Forces command, Brigadier General Varinder
   Singh, visited Vladikavkaz in late July. They held talks with the military
   district command and familiarized themselves with the infrastructure of
   the garrisons, and with the training at the firing rage and at the
   tank-training ground, Bobrun said.The district's motorized infantry
   brigade conducted demonstration training at Russia's only mountainous
   training site Daryal, displaying mountain climbing skills on rocky and
   grass terrain.The command a lso showed off uniforms, designed specially
   for mountain climbing units, as well as mountaineering equipment, which
   allows service members to climb slopes of any complexity.(Description of
   Source: Moscow Interfax-AVN Online in English -- Website of news service
   devoted to military news and owned by the independent Interfax news
   agency; URL: http://www.militarynews.ru)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   45) Back to Top
   Camerons Diatribe Against Pakistan: Daily Asks Zardari To Cancel His UK
   Visit
   Editorial: The Correct Responses - The Nation Online
   Monday August 2, 2010 07:30:53 GMT
   FIINAL LY, Prime Minister Gilani responded to British Prime Minister
   Cameron's diatribe against Pakistan, albeit his words were still guarded
   and restrained and certainly not bordering on the abusive, as had been
   Cameron's. It was also good to see PM Gilani remind the British leadership
   about Kashmir and how the British PM should have spoken about human rights
   abuses by the Indian state in Occupied Kashmir since he was in such a
   "plain speaking" mode while in India. After all, Occupied Kashmir was
   burning and Indian forces were continuing their repression of the
   Kashmiris, while Cameron was seducing the Indian leadership for business
   deals. Then one would have seen how far Cameron's plain speaking would
   have taken him! The Prime Minister also did well to remind Cameron of the
   fact that Pakistan has so far given the most sacrifices for the US-lead
   "war on terror", not only in terms of Pakistani lives lost but also the
   total destruction of our social fabric and st ability. But mere words will
   not suffice as the British have simply gone too far and at the very least
   some symbolic action is required.

   In this connection it makes no sense for President Zardari to visit the UK
   for what is primarily a private visit to bolster his son's entry into
   politics. It is not just a matter of costs at a time when the country has
   been wrecked by floods but one of priorities, although this is another
   reason for cancelling the foreign visit.

   A cancellation of the visit to the UK would also send a message not only
   to the British that Pakistan is not prepared to brook abuse; it would also
   show to the beleaguered Pakistanis that the President actually cared about
   his people. At this time of national tragedy, the President should be seen
   with his suffering people, not traipsing off to Europe. Even some of his
   political allies have suggested this option.

   Instead, the President's loyalists have reduced the whole issue of the
   visit to the ridiculous, with some stating he will take only a small
   delegation and stay in the "cheapest five star hotel"; while others are
   suddenly claiming his visit is on the PPP UK's invitation so they will
   bear all the costs - contrary to what the High Commissioner and
   Information Minister had been saying. In all this, the real issue has been
   lost sight of - that at this moment in time the people of Pakistan want to
   send a strong message to the UK and they also would like to see their
   leadership to be with them in their hour of need. But does the leadership
   care?

   (Description of Source: Islamabad The Nation Online in English -- Website
   of a conservative daily, part of the Nawa-i-Waqt publishing group.
   Circulation around 20,000; URL: http://www.nation.com.pk)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept . of
   Commerce.

   46) Back to Top
   New Delhi Assures Security to Railways Minister Mamata Against 'Any
   threat'
   Report by Subrata Chattopadhyay: "Pranab Assures Security for Worried
   Mamata" - The Asian Age Online
   Monday August 2, 2010 07:12:35 GMT
   Kolkata -- Showing a gesture to his alliance partner Trinamul Congress
   chief Mamata Banerjee's over charges that the Marxist party has set up a
   suicide squad to eliminate her, Union finance minister Pranab Mukherjee
   promised all the security arrangements for her vis-a-vis any threat.I
   became aware of it (the allegation) in the newspaper. Proper security
   arrangements will be made for her in the wake of that threat perception,"
   Mr Mukherjee said on Sunday, adding that the allegation has been made by a
   Central government ministe r.Significantly, rather than the Maoists,
   Mamata feared that the attack on her and on Trinamul MP Subhendu Adhikary
   could come from a suicide squad that had been formed by the CPI(M). She
   also claimed that she had specific information this suicide squad being
   raised in some camps the Red party was running in and around Lalgarh. The
   Trinamul Congress chief had made the startling allegations at her Kalighat
   residence on Saturday."These cowards (some CPI(M) ministers and leaders)
   have no moral courage to fight against me politically and are thus forming
   a suicide squad to eliminate me," she said, adding that the CPI(M) and
   some other political parties which have vested interests have held a
   meeting and hatched a conspiracy to eliminate me. "Such a meeting was
   held, you can inquire," claimed Ms Banerjee.Meanwhile, rubbishing Ms
   Banerjee`s sensational charge on the big brother party, senior RSP (a
   constituent of the Left Front) leader Kshiti Goswami said, &amp;quo t;This is
   quite a baseless charge. Before raising a storm over a hypothesis, she
   should have given proper evidence in support of her allegation."

   (Description of Source: New Delhi The Asian Age Online in English --
   Website of the independent daily with good coverage of security issues.
   Harshly critical of US policies, run by T. Venkattram Reddy. Circulation
   estimated at 244,317, with an elite audience; URL:
   http://www.asianage.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   47) Back to Top
   Probe Agency Arrests Maoist-Backed Group PCPA Member for Train Sabotage
   Unattributed report: "PCPA Member Arrested" - The Asian Age Online
   Monday August 2, 2010 06:54:27 GMT
   Kolkata -- The Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) arrested a member of
   the Maoist-backed People's Committee Against Police Atrocities (PCPA) for
   his alleged involvement in the sabotage of the Gyaneswari Express which
   had killed nearly 150 passengers.The accused, Lakshman Mahato alias Dhun,
   is a resident of Kusumghati village in Jhargram of West Midnapore. "He was
   arrested by a CBI team from his house on Saturday late night," said
   special public prosecutor of the Central Bureau of Investigation Partha
   Tapaswi. His cellphone and its SIM card were also seized.With his arrest,
   the total number of arrest rose to 10. During interrogations, the
   26-year-old had confessed of removing the pandrol clips from the railway
   tracks at Sardiha alongwith other People's Committee Against Police
   Atrocities members early on May 28, sources revealed."He was produced at
   the Jhargram court on Sunda y which remanded him in ten days' CBI
   custody," Mr Tapaswi added. The CBI is now examining his cellphone and the
   SIM card for the call records to know whom he used to maintain contacts
   before and after the carnage. Although prime accused in the case and
   People's Committee Against Police Atrocities leader Bapi Mahato was
   arrested in the case, two other PCPA leaders -- Umakanto Mahato and Asit
   Mahato, wanted by the CBI, are still at large.

   (Description of Source: New Delhi The Asian Age Online in English --
   Website of the independent daily with good coverage of security issues.
   Harshly critical of US policies, run by T. Venkattram Reddy. Circulation
   estimated at 244,317, with an elite audience; URL:
   http://www.asianage.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   48) Back to Top
   IUML Cautions Muslim Youths Against 'Falling Prey' to 'Evil Forces'
   Unattributed report: Don't Fall Prey to Nefarious Designs of Evil Forces:
   IUML - The Hindu Online
   Monday August 2, 2010 06:27:57 GMT
   CHENNAI: The Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) has urged Muslims not to
   "become a tool in the hands of mischievous and dangerous elements who are
   hell-bent on tarnishing the image of the Muslim community."Briefing
   newsmen here, IUML president and Minister of State for Railways E. Ahamed
   said the IUML national executive which met here had urged partymen and
   Muslim youth to work for the community and the country and cautioned
   against falling prey to the "nefarious designs of evil forces who want to
   disrupt the secular democratic fabric, communal amity and religious harmo
   ny of our nation." This would be one of the underlying themes of the All
   India Muslim Youth conference slated to be held at Vellore in three
   months, said IUML national general secretary and state president K.M.
   Kader Mohideen.Expressing anguish over the attempts by some groups who
   "work as stooges of terrorist outfits, resort to violence and create
   impediments in the peaceful co-existence of people of different faiths",
   the IUML said it dissociated completely from elements and outfits with
   ulterior motives who resorted to heinous crime and violence and mislead
   the community.The IUML believed that the problems being faced by the
   minorities and other weaker sections of society could only be solved
   through democratic means by wider engagement with civil society, Mr.
   Ahamed said.The IUML has appreciated the welfare measures taken by Tamil
   Nadu government to ameliorate the social and educational conditions of the
   minorities and backward classes even while rapping t he "miserable
   failure" of the government of Kerala on this count and describing the
   condition of minorities in West Bengal as "pathetic".

   (Description of Source: Chennai The Hindu Online in English -- Website of
   the most influential English daily of southern India. Strong focus on
   South Indian issues. It has abandoned its neutral editorial and reportage
   policy in the recent few years after its editor, N Ram, a Left party
   member, fell out with the Bharatiya Janata Party-led government and has
   become anti-BJP, pro-Left, and anti-US with perceptible bias in favor of
   China in its write-ups. Gives good coverage to Left parties and has
   reputation of publishing well-researched editorials and commentaries; URL:
   www.hindu.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   &lt;/ div&gt;

   49) Back to Top
   Indian Editorial Urges Political Response To Tackle Continuing Kashmir
   Violence
   Editorial: "Face the Challenge" - Daily Excelsior Online
   Monday August 2, 2010 06:10:41 GMT
   The continuing violence in the Kashmir Valley underlines the political
   challenge on hand for the ruling coalition in particular and mainstream
   parties on the whole. Nobody can be happy over the loss of innocent lives
   in clashes between protesters and the security forces. In fact, it causes
   hearts of all sane persons to ache with tremendous pain. Who will not be
   moved by the photographs of wailing mothers, sisters and other relatives?
   An important question thus does arise on this occasion. How do we prevent
   what is a collective setback to all of us? There is one easy way. We as
   citizens ought t o honour the law of the land. There is no reason why any
   one of us should be seen in the company of those violating curfew
   restrictions. A little precaution can avert a major crisis later. By no
   yardstick can the incidents of arson against public property be justified.
   Indeed, a dream has come true with the railway operating inside the
   Valley. Whose purpose does it serve to spoil it by damaging the railway
   property or setting it on fire? Who are the people who target camps and
   vehicles of security forces? Clearly they have a vested interest and a
   wicked agenda and need to be restrained come what may. They do pose a very
   serious question or two to the law and order apparatus which in turn will
   be failing in its duty if it does not come up with an appropriate reply.
   It is a pity that naive young persons are caught in the resultant
   crossfire. Radical separatist elements set off and stoke the flames
   because it fits into their vicious scheme. They revel in a troubled
   milieu. It i s absolutely necessary to catch them by the horns. There are
   ideologues and practitioners of violence among them. They are contained by
   the uniformed men who no doubt are carrying out their task with
   dedication.It is the political response that is being found wanting. For
   long we have been pleading in these columns the need for the National
   Conference (NC) and the People's Democratic Party (PDP) to assert
   themselves in the face of the secessionists' pronounced threat. The two
   parties are required to activate their cadre on the ground. The NC has of
   late ushered in a few changes and also brought in a senior leader as its
   main spokesperson. It has paid a heavy price in the past with several of
   its leaders and workers having been gunned down by the militants. Those
   sacrifices should strengthen its resolve to dictate terms instead of
   following them. The PDP, on the other hand, should look beyond merely
   lampooning the NC. How does it help it to lock out the Civil Secretariat's
   pr emises in Srinagar?As an opposition party it is all right for the PDP
   to accuse the Government of having lost "all credibility and moral
   authority." Why should it fail to anticipate, however, that its foe is the
   same as that of the NC? Time has come to call a spade a spade. British
   Prime Minister David Cameron has set an example recently by telling
   Pakistan to eliminate the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) on its soil to end
   terrorism in this country. An ideal situation will be the one in which the
   NC and PDP evolve a common meeting ground on fundamental issues.

   (Description of Source: Jammu Daily Excelsior Online in English -- Website
   of independent daily providing comprehensive reporting on Kashmir issues.
   Advocates hardline Indian stance against Pakistan on Kashmir. Circulation
   of 150,000; URL: www.dailyexcelsior.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright hold
   er. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce.

   50) Back to Top
   West Bengal Govt Announces Relief Package for Maoists Willing To Surrender
   Report by Ananya Dutta: Rehabilitation Policy for Maoists Initiated -
   The Hindu Online
   Monday August 2, 2010 06:10:41 GMT
   KOLKATA: The policy of rehabilitating left-wing extremists who surrender
   to security forces in West Bengal's Maoist-affected Jangalmahal area was
   initiated with the distribution of leaflets on Sunday, less than a week
   after the amnesty scheme was notified by the State government."We
   distributed leaflets containing information about the package in certain
   areas today and are hopeful of getting some response from Maoists soon,"
   Praveen Tripathi, Jhargram Superintendent of Police, told T he
   Hindu.Leaflets were distributed in Jhargram, Binpur, Belpahari and
   Manikpara, which are the areas of focus as of now, Mr. Tripathi
   added."When a Maoist surrenders to security forces, a Rs.1.5 lakh fixed
   deposit will be set aside for him for a period of three years. There will
   be no cash payments," he said.After the three-year period is over, a
   screening committee that will oversee the rehabilitation process will
   review the case and attest that the behaviour of the surrendered person
   has been good, after which the amount will be handed over to him, Mr.
   Tripathi said.Headed by an officer of the rank of Additional
   Director-General, the committee will include an officer of the rank of
   Inspector-General from the paramilitary services and Deputy
   Inspectors-General of every organisation operating in Maoist-affected
   areas, he added. 'This is the right time' "This is the right time for the
   rehabilitation package to be introduced here as some of the locals have
   begun cooperating with the police. The success of the scheme will depend
   on how the police implement it and ensure support from the people," said
   Manoj Verma, Superintendent of Police of Paschim Medinipur district.He
   said the police had received feelers from some Maoist cadres about their
   desire to return to mainstream society, and at the same time, villagers
   had begun sharing useful information about the whereabouts of the rebels.

   (Description of Source: Chennai The Hindu Online in English -- Website of
   the most influential English daily of southern India. Strong focus on
   South Indian issues. It has abandoned its neutral editorial and reportage
   policy in the recent few years after its editor, N Ram, a Left party
   member, fell out with the Bharatiya Janata Party-led government and has
   become anti-BJP, pro-Left, and anti-US with perceptible bias in favor of
   China in its write-ups. Gives good coverage to Left parties and has
   reputation of publishing well-researched edito rials and commentaries;
   URL: www.hindu.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.
</description>
    <date>2010-08-03 12:30:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/844650_ind-india-south-asia-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>translations@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>dialogbot@smtp.stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>845390</id>
    <title>Re: [OS] INDIA COUNTRY BRIEF 100730
</title>
    <description>   Pretty interesting figure in here:
   A governemtn report today said the number of train accidents due to
   sabotage by Maoists reported during the years 2008, 2009 and 2010 (January
   to June) are six train accidents in the year 2008, three in 2009 and eight
   train accident in 2010 (January to June) in which Maoists are involved.

   Record year for Maoist attacks on trains in India.

   Animesh wrote:

                              INDIA COUNTRY BRIEF

     100730

                          Basic Political Developments

      

       o Acknowledging that the situation in Jammu and Kashmir is 'not yet
         normal', the Centre on Friday made it clear that it was "willing to
         hold talks with our own people". Briefing reporters after presenting
         his report card for the month of July, Home Minister P Chidambaram
          said the stand of the government was clear about the issue.

      

       o The ruling Congress party in Andhra Pradesh Friday suffered a major
         setback with its state unit chief D. Srinivas losing the assembly
         by-election.

      

       o Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) swept the assembly by-elections in
         the region, winning five seats and leading in six other
         constituencies Friday. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is ahead in the
         remaining one seat.

      

       o The issue of price rise rocked the fourth day of Parliament's
         Monsoon Session on Friday. Both the houses were adjourned till
         Monday.

      

                            National Economic Trends

      

       o The government today decided to release Rs 4,868 crore to public
         sector lenders for providing concessional loans to farmers.

      

          Business, Energy or Environmental regulations or discussions

      

       o The Supreme Court on Friday declined to stay the Bombay High Court
         order that directed Vijay Mallya-promoted Kingfisher Airlines to
         co-operate with the fair trade regulator CCI.

      

       o NTPC today commissioned a 490-MW unit at its Dadri thermal power
         plant for the upcoming Commonwealth Games.

      

       o Olympus Imaging Corporation, a leading player in new generation
         cameras, will expand its presence in Tier II and Tier III cities,
         hoping to increase business revenue from India operations this year
         to Rs 136 crore.

      

       o SAIL sees steel prices firming up on the back of demand from
         construction and automobile firms and may revise the rates for its
         products in the next few months.

      

       o The government today informed the Rajya Sabha that Unions are
         opposed to disinvestment in Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL).

      

       o Chairman of government-run Indian Oil Corp BM Bansal told reporters
         on Friday Indian state firms have no immediate plans to revise
         petrol prices.  

      

       o PE player Kotak Private Equity Fund has picked up 10% stake in
         Vadodara-based Diamond Power Infrastructure Limited, the flagship
         company of the Rs 2,000-crore Diamond Group which has offered equity
         amounting to Rs 132 crore.

      

           Activity in the Oil and Gas sector (including regulatory)

      

       o Bal Krishna Chaturvedi, the Planning Commission's member in charge
         of energy said that India should free diesel prices immediately
         while global crude prices are stable.

      

Militant Activity/Terrorism (Particularly in Bangalore, Mumbai, Noida, Chennai,
                                  Coimbatore)

      

       o Suspected Maoists shot dead a Communist Party of India-Marxist
         (CPI-M) supporter in West Bengal's West Midnapore district Friday.

      

       o Six militants of the outlawed National Democratic Front of Bodoland
         (NDFB), including the outfit's publicity chief, were arrested Friday
         in separate raids from Assam's main city of Guwahati.

      

       o Five paramilitary troopers were killed and 30 injured, five of them
         critically, in a powerful landmine explosion in Assam Friday by the
         outlawed United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA).

      

       o A governemtn report today said the number of train accidents due to
         sabotage by Maoists reported during the years 2008, 2009 and 2010
         (January to June) are six train accidents in the year 2008, three in
         2009 and eight train accident in 2010 (January to June) in which
         Maoists are involved.

      

                              Labor/Social Unrest

      

       o A teenager was critically injured when security forces opened fire
         to disperse an unruly mob in the Chanpora locality of Srinagar on
         Friday morning. Curfew had been imposed in the city to foil a march
         called by separatists today.

      

       o BJP and members of the Sikh community today held separate
         demonstrations across Jammu region to protest an incident of alleged
         ill treatment of a Sikh youth in Kashmir valley.

      

                                   Full Text

                          Basic Political Developments

      

     Politicians' involvement not ruled out in Kashmir violence: PC

     Last updated on: July 30, 2010 16:28 IST

     http://news.rediff.com/report/2010/jul/30/politicians-role-not-ruled-out-in-jk-crisis-pc.htm

      

     Acknowledging that the situation in Jammu and Kashmir [ Images ] is 'not
     yet normal', the Centre on Friday made it clear that it was "willing to
     hold talks with our own people".

      

     Briefing reporters after presenting his report card for the month of
     July, Home Minister P Chidambaram [ Images ] said the stand of the
     government was clear about the issue.

      

     "From day one, I have favoured a quiet dialogue with all sections of
     opinion, all groups, all political parties," Chiadmabaram said.

      

     He was replying to a question on whether the Centre was willing to hold
     talks with separatist groups including Hurriyat Conference in the state.

      

     "I continue to meet leaders of different groups and political parties,"
     he said but admitted that "there has been some interruption in the
     process, I do not deny that."

      

     "But we are always prepared to meet everyone who is willing to meet us.
     The Prime Minister (Manmohan Singh [ Images ]) said he favours a
     dialogue with all groups. Chief Minister of the state (Omar Abdullah [
     Images ]) is encouraged to meet all groups. Talking to our own people -
     what is the reservation? There is no reservation at all," he said.

      

     "We are willing to talk to our own people," he said.

      

     Asked whether any political party was also involved in disrupting peace
     in the Valley, Chidambaram nodded in agreement and said 'presumably'.

      

     Chidambaram had announced last year that he would be holding quiet
     diplomacy with separatist organisations. He also met leaders of the
     Hurriyat Conference including Mirwaiz Umer Farooq on three occasions.

      

     However, the separatist group backtracked from the process after
     terrorists shot at a moderate leader Farl-ul-Haq Qureshi earlier this
     year. He disagreed with a suggestion that the separatists' writ was
     running in the state.

      

     "I don't agree with you that the writ of the separatists is running.
     Yes, in Srinagar [ Images ] and some other towns, they are able to
     mobilise support, urge people to indulge in stone pelting and are able
     to call bandhs," Chidambaram said.

      

     According to the state government, he said, there are many areas in the
     Valley which are "quite normal or by and large normal.  They (state
     government) have announced a few measures. They have appointed a
     commission of inquiry, they are formulating a surrender policy, they
     have offered compensation and jobs. Hope these measures will help in
     normalising the situation," he said.

      

     In his written statement, Chidambaram said the situation in the state is
     "not yet normal. Repeated calls for bandh have paralysed normal life in
     the Valley. Security forces continue to operate in a difficult situation
     by exercising maximum restraint."

      

      

     Andhra Pradesh Congress chief loses by-election           

     http://in.news.yahoo.com/43/20100730/818/tnl-andhra-pradesh-congress-chief-loses_1.html

     Jul 30 12:45 PM

     Hyderabad, July 30 (IANS) The ruling Congress party in Andhra Pradesh
     Friday suffered a major setback with its state unit chief D. Srinivas
     losing the assembly by-election.

      

     In a repeat of the 2009 result, Srinivas was defeated by BJP's A.
     Lakshminarayana by a margin of 12,200 votes in Nizamabad Urban
     constituency.

      

     The result has come as a big jolt to Srinivas, who was planning to join
     the state cabinet and was even emerging as a possible successor to Chief
     Minister K. Rosaiah.

      

     The state Congress president lost in the 2009 elections by 11,015 votes.

      

     Lakshminarayana had quit along with 10 legislators of the Telangana
     Rashtra Samiti and one of Telugu Desam Party early this year to press
     the demand for separate statehood to Telangana.

      

     TRS wins five seats, leading in six

     http://news.webindia123.com/news/articles/India/20100730/1556770.html

     Hyderabad |Friday, 2010 1:35:07 PM IST

     Riding on the Telangana sentiment, Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) swept
     the assembly by-elections in the region, winning five seats and leading
     in six other constituencies Friday. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is
     ahead in the remaining one seat.

      

     Proving that the Telangana sentiment is still strong, TRS retained
     Siddipet, Sirpur, Dharmapuri and Chennur seats with huge majority and
     wrested Vemulawada seat from Telugu Desam Party (TDP).

      

     TRS is heading for a comfortable win in the six constituencies while
     BJP's Lakshminarayana was ahead of state Congress chief D. Srinivas in
     Nizamabad Urban segment.

      

     TRS leader T. Harish Rao has set a record by retaining Siddipet seat
     with a margin of 95,858 votes, breaking the record of former chief
     minister Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy, who was re-elected from Pulivendula
     constituency in Kadapa district last year with a margin of 68,681.

      

     The results from seven constituencies, where electronic voting machines
     (EVMs) were used, are likely to be announced before noon while it may
     take some more time in the remaining five constituencies where ballot
     papers were used.

      

     The Election Commission said 66.67 percent of 23.60 lakh voters in the
     12 constituencies spread over five districts cast their votes in the
     elections held Tuesday.

      

     The by-polls were necessitated by the resignation of all 10 legislators
     of the TRS and one each of the BJP and the TDP on the issue of a
     separate Telangana state early this year.

      

     As many as 435 candidates are in the fray for the by-elections, seen as
     a referendum on the issue of a separate Telangana.

      

     Price issue rocks Parliament, both houses adjourned till Monday

     http://www.newkerala.com/news2/fullnews-10762.html

     New Delhi, July 30 : The issue of price rise rocked the fourth day of
     Parliament's Monsoon Session on Friday. Both the houses were adjourned
     till Monday.

      

     An unrelenting opposition continued its vociferous protest on the issue
     of price rise leading to the adjournment of both the Lok Sabha and the
     Rajya Sabha.

      

     In the Lok Sabha, Speaker Meira Kumar called for Question Hour prompting
     BJP members to troop to the well and raise slogans against the
     government. She then adjourned the proceedings till noon.

      

     After the House reassembled, the opposition members persisted with their
     protests in the well and forced adjournment for the day.

      

     Leader of the Opposition Sushma Swaraj said: "We have been pressing for
     a debate on price rise for the past four days either under adjournment
     motion or Rule 184, but the government is adamant on not having a debate
     under any rule that entails voting,"

      

     Rajya Sabha also has been adjourned till Monday following uproar over
     the price rise issue.

      

     On Wednesday, Meira Kumar rejected the opposition''s demand for a vote
     on the price rise issue.

      

     Kumar said the price rise is a matter of concern and may be discussed in
     any form other than the adjournment motion.

                            National Economic Trends

      

     Govt to infuse Rs 4,868 cr into state-owned banks

     http://www.ptinews.com/news/830657_Govt-to-infuse-Rs-4-868-cr-into-state-owned-banks-

     New Delhi, July 30 (PTI) The government today decided to release Rs
     4,868 crore to public sector lenders for providing concessional loans to
     farmers.

      

     The decision, taken at a Cabinet meeting, will help lenders provide
     farmers short-term crop loan at 7 per cent interest.

      

     "The Union Cabinet today gave its approval for the release of Rs 4,868
     crore as interest subvention to Public Sector Banks (PSBs), Regional
     Rural Banks (RRBs), Cooperative Banks and NABARD for refinance to RRBs
     at concessional rates to reimburse the amount of interest subvention to
     ensure that the farmer, in general, should receive short-term crop loan
     at 7 per cent per annum this fiscal," the government said in a
     statement.

      

     The lenders would have given loans to farmers at 9 per cent, had the
     subsidy of 2 per cent not been provided by the government.

          Business, Energy or Environmental regulations or discussions

      

     SC refuses to stay Kingfisher Airlines' plea against CCI probe

     http://www.thehindu.com/business/companies/article542027.ece

     The Supreme Court on Friday declined to stay the Bombay High Court order
     that directed Vijay Mallya-promoted Kingfisher Airlines to co-operate
     with the fair trade regulator CCI.

      

     A bench headed by Chief Justice S.H. Kapadia said that they are hearing
     a petition by the Competition Commission of India (CCI) regarding its
     powers to initiate an investigation against a company on the complaints
     of a rival.

      

     Kingfisher Airlines had moved the Supreme Court against a probe into its
     two-year-old strategic alliance with Jet Airways.

      

     The CCI began the probe last year to examine if the alliance was a case
     of cartelisation.

      

     Kingfisher, however, approached the Supreme Court arguing that the
     alliance was formed before the Competition Act came into force, and
     therefore, it couldn't be probed under it.

      

     Justice Kapadia said that the court would lay guidelines for such an
     investigation and it would hear Kingfisher's plea after that.

      

     Meanwhile, Additional Solicitor General Parag Tripathi appearing for CCI
     informed the court that Kingfisher was not co-operating in the
     investigation.

      

     The matter would be heard after four weeks.

      

     NTPC commissions 490-MW unit at Dadri plant

     http://www.ptinews.com/news/830523_NTPC-commissions-490-MW-unit-at-Dadri-plant

     New Delhi, July 30 (PTI) State-run NTPC today commissioned a 490-MW unit
     at its Dadri thermal power plant for the upcoming Commonwealth Games.

      

     Power Minister Sushilkumar Shinde inaugurated the 490 MW unit of NTPC's
     (2x490 MW)Dadri Stage-II thermal power project in Uttar Pradesh.

      

     The first 490-MW Unit at the same power project was commissioned earlier
     by BHEL and has been running satisfactorily, BHEL said in a separate
     press statement.

      

     Power generated from the Dadri Stage-II would be supplied to Delhi (90
     per cent) and Uttar Pradesh (10 per cent).

      

     With the commissioning of this project the total installed capacity of
     NTPC has reached 32,194 MW.

      

     Olympus targetting Rs 136 crore revenue from India

     http://www.ptinews.com/news/831294_Olympus-targetting-Rs-136-crore-revenue-from-India-

     Kochi, July 30 (PTI) Olympus Imaging Corporation, a leading player in
     new generation cameras, will expand its presence in Tier II and Tier III
     cities, hoping to increase business revenue from India operations this
     year to Rs 136 crore.

      

     Last year, revenues from the country had touched Rs 78 crore, Kinya
     Oshimura, General Manager India Operations, told reporters here.

      

     The company was into rapid growth in India and China.

      

     The Indian market will be much bigger and one of the most important
     markets for Olympus in the near future, he said.

      

     Olympus' newly launched products for India include Olympus PEN, Miju
     tough series, Voice recorders, Binoculars and other accessories.

      

     In digicam, the market size was 1.7 million units and Olympus aimed to
     achieve a 15 per cent market share.

      

     SAIL sees steel prices firming up in next few months

     http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/indl-goods-/-svs/steel/SAIL-sees-steel-prices-firming-up-in-next-few-months/articleshow/6236999.cms

     30 Jul 2010, 1505 hrs IST,PTI

      

      NEW DELHI: The country's largest steel-maker, SAIL, sees steel prices
     firming up on the back of demand from construction and automobile firms
     and

     may revise the rates for its products in the next few months.

      

     "Steel prices are firming up. There is an upward pressure on the prices.
     Demand in August-September is bound to improve, mainly from sectors like
     automobile and construction," SAIL Chairman C S Verma told PTI.

      

     Any price change by SAIL, which has a domestic market share of about 20
     per cent, is generally followed by other producers like JSW Steel, Tata
     Steel and Essar Steel, among others.

      

     Verma said the price of key steel products like hot-rolled coils (HR-C),
     which had touched a peak of USD 615 a tonne in international markets in
     January, had fallen to about USD 550 a tonne in July due to a slump in
     demand amid economic instability in Europe and a slowdown in
     manufacturing activity in China.

      

     Meanwhile, in reply to a query in the Rajya Sabha, Minister of State for
     Steel A Sai Prathap said, "... During July, 2010, the prices of various
     steel products have come down by 4 per cent to 13 per cent from the
     prices in March-April, 2010."

      

     Verma added, "HR coil prices have seen some improvement. They are
     hovering around the USD 555 a tonne level now."

      

     Asked if SAIL would take a cue from the changes in international prices
     and increase rates next month, Verma said, "Prices would be determined
     on the basis of the demand and supply situation."

      

     In the first quarter, Verma said, SAIL sold its products at an average
     price of Rs 34,000 a tonne as compared to Rs 31,000 a tonne a year-ago.

      

     Earlier this week, Sajjan Jindal, the Vice-Chairman and Managing
     Director of JSW, the country's largest private sector steel-maker by
     domestic capacity, had said that prices of the commodity have stabilised
     and are expected to show some signs of improvement.

      

     Unions opposed to SAIL disinvestment: Government

     http://www.ptinews.com/news/831375_Unions-opposed-to-SAIL-disinvestment--Government-

     New Delhi, July 30 (PTI) Unions are opposed to disinvestment in Steel
     Authority of India Ltd (SAIL), the government today informed the Rajya
     Sabha.

      

     SAIL's 20 per cent share sale plan to mop up about Rs 16,000 crore,
     earlier planned in October-November this year, already faces some
     regulatory hurdles.

      

     "It is informed by SAIL that some of the unions have resorted to
     distribution of pamphlets and also staged demonstrations protesting
     against the decision regarding disinvestment of SAIL," Minister of State
     for Steel A Sai Prathap told the Upper House in a written reply.

      

     He, however, said, "the disinvestment of Government of India?s
     shareholding in Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL) is in line with the
     Government?s policy to develop larger people?s ownership of Central
     Public Sector Enterprises with Government retaining majority
     shareholding and control.

      

     IOC says no plans to revise petrol prices now

     http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/energy/oil--gas/IOC-says-no-plans-to-revise-petrol-prices-now/articleshow/6236455.cms

     30 Jul 2010, 0051 hrs IST,REUTERS

     NEW DELHI: Indian state firms have no immediate plans to revise petrol
     prices, the chairman of government-run Indian Oil Corp BM Bansal told
     reporters on Friday.

      

     Diamond Power in deal for Rs 132 cr equity

     http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/energy/power/Diamond-Power-in-deal-for-Rs-132-cr-equity/articleshow/6236926.cms

     30 Jul 2010, 1452 hrs IST,Mitul Thakkar,ET Bureau

     AHMEDABAD: PE player Kotak Private Equity Fund has picked up 10% stake
     in Vadodara-based Diamond Power Infrastructure Limited, the flagship
     company of the Rs 2,000-crore Diamond Group which has offered equity
     amounting to Rs 132 crore.

      

     While the value of Kotak's stake amounts to Rs 80 crore, mutual funds
     and foreign institutional investors are learnt to have picked up 6.5%
     stake amounting to another Rs 50 crore. The deal was priced at Rs 204
     per equity share, based on its Monday's share price of Rs 207.65.

      

     Diamond Power officials could not be reached for comments. However,
     sources close to the development confirmed the deal. It is learnt that
     the company has already closed the deal, and a formal announcement is
     expected anytime soon.

      

     The 40-year-old Diamond Group is into power equipment and
     infrastructure.

      

     Sources said, Diamond Power would utilise the funds for long-term
     working capital and domestic acquisitions. It would be the fresh equity
     infusion for the Rs 850-crore Diamond Power which increased its
     authorised capital from Rs 30 crore to Rs 50 crore last year.

      

     Diamond Cables is on aggressive fund raising drive to shape its
     ambitious expansion and acquisition plans. In May, a consortium of
     lenders including Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, Dena Bank, Axis Bank
     and ICICI Bank sanctioned a working capital limit of Rs 372 crore.

      

     Formerly known as Diamond Cables Limited, the flagship company has now
     emerged as the largest and integrated manufacturer of power transmission
     equipments and turnkey services provider in the country.

      

     "Formed in 1970 with a single unit, Diamond Power today boasts of nine
     manufacturing facilities through expansion and acquisitions. Diamond
     Power has an order book worth Rs 1,300 crore and is now also on verge of
     completing the commissioning of transmission tower making facility. It
     will enable Diamond Power to enjoy control over all the arms cables,
     conductors, transformers and towers while bidding for turnkey
     contracts," said an industry expert closely associated with Diamond
     Group.

      

     In 2007, Diamond Power acquired two transformer making facilities Apex
     Electricals and Western Transformers to bring the key components making
     units under its fold. Acquisitions and expansion of HT &amp; LT cables have
     enabled Diamond Power to touch turnover mark of Rs 850 crore in 2009-10
     from Rs 500 crore in 2007-08. 

           Activity in the Oil and Gas sector (including regulatory)

     India should free diesel prices now: Adviser

     30 Jul 2010, 1318 hrs IST,REUTERS

     http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/India-should-free-diesel-prices-now-Adviser/articleshow/6236543.cms

     NEW DELHI: India should free diesel prices immediately while global
     crude prices are stable, but the government could impose a windfall tax
     on

     producers if crude surged beyond $80 a barrel, a senior adviser said.
     "Just now is the right time, because the (crude) prices are around
     $70-80, stable," Bal Krishna Chaturvedi, the Planning Commission's
     member in charge of energy, told Reuters late on Thursday.

      

     "The impact on inflation will be absolutely minimal." India had in June
     eliminated controls on petrol prices to cut its subsidy bill and bolster
     its fiscal health, but maintained those on diesel on concerns lifting
     them would further fan inflation already in double digits. 

      

Militant Activity/Terrorism (Particularly in Bangalore, Mumbai, Noida, Chennai,
                                  Coimbatore)

      

     Suspected Maoists kill CPI-M supporter in Bengal            

     http://in.news.yahoo.com/43/20100730/812/tnl-suspected-maoists-kill-cpi-m-support_1.html

     Jul 30 04:50 PM

     Kolkata, July 30 (IANS) Suspected Maoists shot dead a Communist Party of
     India-Marxist (CPI-M) supporter in West Bengal's West Midnapore district
     Friday, police said.

      

     The body of Bidyadhar Ghosh of Kakotpal village near Binpur in Jhargram
     sub-division was found lying near the road. 'A police team was rushed to
     the spot to recover his body. He was shot dead by a group of Maoists,'
     District Additional Superintendent of Police (operations) Mukesh Kumar
     said.

      

     According to local people, the rebels attacked Bidyadhar in the
     afternoon when he was working in his agricultural field.

      

     'The Maoists came riding on motorcycles and then forcibly took Bidyadhar
     to a place near the metalled road. After a few minutes, he was shot
     dead. They then fled away,' a villager said on condition of anonymity.

      

     In a separate incident, four people of Radhanagar village in Jhargram
     were injured when a group of Maoists fired and hurled bombs at them late
     Thursday. They have been admitted to the Jhargram sub-divisional
     hospital, police said.

      

     'On July 22, Maoists gathered at the village and asked the villagers to
     join them in a procession. However, the villagers opposed their demand
     and chased the rebels out of their village July 23. The Maoists came
     back to the village Thursday night and fired at them,' Mukesh said.

      

     The villagers have demanded setting up of a police camp in their
     village.

      

     'As the police camp is situated few kilometres away from our village,
     the rebels easily manage to escape after committing crimes. We have
     urged the police to set up a camp in our village so that Maoists or the
     members of the tribal body can not attack us,' said Sukhen Hemram, a
     villager.

      

     Six militants of Bodo group arrested           

     http://in.news.yahoo.com/43/20100730/812/tnl-six-militants-of-bodo-group-arrested_1.html

     Jul 30 05:30 PM

     Guwahati, July 30 (IANS) Six militants of the outlawed National
     Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB), including the outfit's publicity
     chief, were arrested Friday in separate raids from Assam's main city of
     Guwahati, officials said.

      

     A police spokesperson said the six arrests were made during an operation
     by security forces on different rented accommodations in Guwahati.

      

     'NDFB's publicity chief B. Barbhai and the outfit's women's wing leader
     Sharmistha Brahma were among the six arrested during separate raids,'
     Longri Terong, additional police superintendent of Guwahati city, said.

      

     'All of them were staying in different rented accommodations
     masquerading as students.'

      

     Barbhai was mainly responsible for sending e-mail statements to media
     houses in Assam, besides acting as NDFB's main liaison person in
     Guwahati.

      

     'I was staying in a rented house and used some email IDs to send press
     statements to newspapers and TV channels under instructions from our
     leadership,' Barbhai told journalists while in police custody.

      

     Sharmistha, on the other hand, is a Bangladesh-trained rebel and was
     instrumental in ferrying explosives to the city for terror attacks.

      

     Police claim the arrests are a major setback for the NDFB.

      

     'The other four arrested rebels are trained cadre,' another police
     official said.

      

     The NDFB is a rebel group fighting for an independent homeland for the
     Bodo tribe. The outfit is blamed for the Oct 30, 2008, serial explosions
     in Assam that killed around 100 people and wounded 500 more.

      

     NDFB chairman Ranjan Daimary is in jail after he was captured by
     Bangladesh and then handed over to India in May.

      

     Five CRPF troopers killed in Assam landmine blast

     http://news.webindia123.com/news/articles/India/20100730/1556981.html

     Guwahati |Friday, 2010 5:35:06 PM IST

     At least five paramilitary troopers were killed and 30 injured, five of
     them critically, in a powerful landmine explosion in Assam Friday,
     officials said. The outlawed United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA)
     claimed responsibility for the explosion.

      

     A police spokesperson said militants triggered the remote controlled
     landmine when a bus carrying troopers of the Central Reserve Police
     Force (CRPF) was passing near village Holmari in Goalpara district,
     about 130 km west of Assam's main city of Guwahati.

      

     The bus carrying about 40 CRPF troopers was returning to the base camp
     after a routine anti-insurgency training exercise when the landmine
     explosion took place, a senior police official said.

      

     Four CRPF troopers were killed on the spot and about 30 injured. One of
     them later succumbed to his injuries at a local hospital in Goalpara.

      

     All the 29 injured, earlier treated at hospitals in Goalpara, have since
     been shifted to the Gauhati Medical College Hospital for advanced
     treatment.

      

     The condition of at least five of the injured is stated to be critical,
     a doctor at the Medical College said.

      

     We carried out the blast on the CRPF bus and will step up our offensive
     if the government does not immediately stop the killing of our cadres.
     We have noticed the government's attitude thinking we are a spent force,
     but then they are wrong in thinking like that, ULFA spokesperson Anu
     Buragohain told a local TV channel by telephone.

      

     Earlier, police claimed the blast was carried out by suspected militants
     of the outlawed National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB).

      

     We don't think the ULFA has any base here, although we know for sure the
     NDFB has a strong presence in the district, the police official said.

      

     A massive security operation was launched in the area with police and
     CRPF troopers along with army soldiers combing the location to hunt for
     the rebels.

      

     The area where the explosion took place is a thickly forested area and
     the militants must have taken advantage of the location, A.K. Saharia,
     Assam Police deputy inspector general, said.

      

     This is the second biggest attack on security forces in Assam - four
     troopers of the Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB) were killed and seven injured
     in an ambush Monday by NDFB militants in the western district of
     Chirang.

      

     Rise in Maoist attacks in trains: Min

     http://www.newkerala.com/news2/fullnews-10819.html

     New Delhi, July 30 : The number of train accidents due to sabotage by
     Maoists reported during the years 2008, 2009 and 2010 (January to June)
     are six train accidents in the year 2008, three in 2009 and eight train
     accident in 2010 (January to June) in which Maoists are involved.

      

     "The security scenario in the country has changed drastically in the
     recent past. There has been a rise in Maoist attacks on critical
     infrastructure of Railways. The Railways because of its vast network and
     expanse have become a soft target of Maoists/extremists," said Minister
     of State for Railways E. Ahamed in Rajya Sabha on Friday.

      

     `Policing of Railways' is a state subject and prevention of crime,
     registration of cases and their investigation and maintenance of law and
     order in Railway premises are the statutory responsibility of the State
     Government concerned which they discharge through their Government
     Railway Police (GRP) and civil police.

      

     Railways bear 50 per cent of expenditure on the GRP. Railway Protection
     Force (RPF) is supplementing the GRP in controlling crime in Railways,
     the minister said.

      

     The minister said measures are being taken by the Railways for safety of
     passengers.

      

     "Nominated trains are escorted by GRP and (RPF) on the vulnerable
     sections/areas.

      

     "Ministry of Home Affairs, Govt. of India, has issued directions to the
     State Governments of Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya
     Pradesh, Orissa, Bihar and West Bengal to make additional deployment of
     civil police, GRP and Central Para Military Forces to avoid attacks on
     Railway infrastructure and avert any likely disasters," said the
     minister.

      

     He said an integrated Security System costing Rs. 353 crore has been
     approved to strengthen surveillance mechanism over sensitive and
     vulnerable railway stations. In the first phase, it is being implemented
     at 202 sensitive railway stations.

      

     Meanwhile, the minister said no case of burglary was reported in trains
     during the last two years, but there is marginal increase in the cases
     of loot and other crimes in trains over Indian Railways during the year
     2009 as compared to the year 2008.

      

     However, to provide better security to the traveling passengers in
     trains and passenger areas, Railway Protection Force (RPF) is deployed
     to escort important trains to effectively supplement the efforts of the
     State Government in controlling crime on the Railways.

                              Labor/Social Unrest

      

     Srinagar protests: Youth seriously injured in firing

     http://news.rediff.com/report/2010/jul/30/jk-2-protestors-injured-in-firing-by-forces.htm

     Last updated on: July 30, 2010 12:25 IST

     A teenager was critically injured when security forces opened fire to
     disperse an unruly mob in the Chanpora locality of Srinagar on Friday
     morning. Curfew had been imposed in the city to foil a march called by
     separatists today.

      

     Police vehicles fitted with loud speakers patrolled several localities
     and urged locals to abide by the curfew rules and stay indoors.

      

     A senior police officer said Iqbal Ahmad Khan, 18, was rushed to SMHS
     hospital where attending doctors described his condition as very
     critical and referred him to the Soura Medical Institute for treatment.

      

     The trouble in Chanpora locality erupted early on Friday morning when a
     group of youth started shouting pro-freedom slogans and tried to take
     out a procession. They also pelted stones at the security forces.

      

     The security forces retaliated by opening fire, injuring Khan, who
     suffered a bullet wound in the head.

      

     As the news about the incident spread in Chanpora and adjoining areas,
     loud speakers at the local mosque made repeated announcements asking
     people to come out of their homes.

      

     A large mob pelted stones at the local police post. Security forces
     responded by firing warning shots, using tear gas and baton charges.

      

     The situation in the area is extremely tense and more reinforcements
     have been rushed to beef up the security. Latest reports said mobs were
     pelting stones at the police in the nearby Rambagh locality.

      

     The hard-line separatist All Parties Hurriyat Conference had called for
     protests on Friday. They had also urged locals to attend a protest march
     to the uptown Maisuma locality.

      

     Authorities had imposed an indefinite curfew in Maisuma and adjoining
     areas on Thursday night and deployed police and Central Reserve Police
     Force to foil the march.

      

     On Thursday evening, two youth were injured when security forces fired
     rubber bullets to disperse stone pelting mobs in the old city area of
     Zaldagar. 

      

     Protests in Jammu against Sikh youth's harassment

     http://www.ptinews.com/news/831340_Protests-in-Jammu-against-Sikh-youth-s-harassment

      

      

     Jammu, Jul 30 (PTI) BJP and members of the Sikh community today held
     separate demonstrations across Jammu region to protest an incident of
     alleged ill treatment of a Sikh youth in Kashmir valley.

      

     Demanding arrest of the culprits involved in the incident in Pulawama
     district on Wednesday and deployment of security around the Sikh
     dominated places in Kashmir, over 1,000 members of the community took
     out a protest rally in the city and later held demonstrations in front
     of the Press Club.

      

     Demonstrations were also held by various Sikh groups in Nanak Nagar,
     Chatta, Simbal camp and Gole Gujral areas in Jammu district where the
     agitators burnt tyres, blocked various roads and wore black turbans as
     mark of protest, police said.

      

     Community leaders have warned that they would intensify their agitation
     if the government failed to take action against the elements responsible
     for hurting their religious sentiments.

      

 --
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX
</description>
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    <releasedate>2012-08-17 09:00:00</releasedate>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>847505</id>
    <title>BBC Monitoring Alert - INDIA
</title>
    <description>    Indian PM announces compensation for Kashmir flood victims               
                                                                             
    Text of report by Indian news agency PTI                                 
                                                                             
    New Delhi, 6 August: India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh Friday [6     
    August] expressed grief over the loss of life and property in the flash  
    floods in Leh in Jammu and Kashmir [Indian-administered Kashmir] and     
    announced an ex-gratia relief of one lakh [one lakh is 100,000] rupees   
    each to the kin of the deceased.                                         
                                                                             
    "The prime minister is grieved to learn about the loss of life and       
    property in the flash floods which hit Leh after a cloud burst" Thursday 
    night, a PMO [Prime Minister's Office] statement said.                   
                                                                             
    He announced an ex-gratia relief from the PM's National Relief Fund of   
    one lakh rupees each to the kin of those killed and 50,000 rupees each   
    to the seriously injured, it said.                                       
                                                                             
    Flash floods struck Leh town in western part of India's northernmost     
    state of Jammu and Kashmir Thursday night killing 59 people.             
                                                                             
    A Defence Ministry spokesperson said the prime minister has asked the    
    ministry to ensure prompt assistance to the Leh cloudburst victims.      
                                                                             
    Defence Minister A K Antony is personally monitoring the operations, he  
    said.                                                                    
                                                                             
    The Defence Ministry was also coordinating with the Home Ministry and    
    the Jammu and Kashmir government to provide targeted assistance to the   
    civil administration in the relief and rescue efforts, he said, adding   
    the Army, Air Force and DRDO [Defence Research and Development           
    Organization] establishments in Leh were actively involved in the        
    process.                                                                 
                                                                             
    A tri-service crisis management group meeting has also been scheduled    
    later Friday to work out the detailed assistance package to the victims, 
    the spokesperson said, noting that Defence Secretary Pradeep Kumar spoke 
    to the Jammu and Kashmir Chief Secretary and assured him of all help.    
                                                                             
    The Air Force, on its part, was working to make the Leh runway, which is 
    covered with six inches of slush following the cloudburst, operational   
    by the evening.                                                          
                                                                             
    Air Force aircraft were on the standby at Chandigarh, Thoise and         
    Udhampur to fly into Leh after clearance of the runway, he said.         
                                                                             
    Source: PTI news agency, New Delhi, in English 0853gmt 06 Aug 10         
                                                                             
    BBC Mon Alert SA1 SAsPol ub                                              

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2010
</description>
    <date>2010-08-06 09:20:05</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 09:00:00</releasedate>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>847884</id>
    <title>BBC Monitoring Alert - INDIA
</title>
    <description>    Police say 103 killed, 370 injured in Indian Kashmir floods              
                                                                             
    Text of report by Indian news agency PTI                                 
                                                                             
    Leh, 6 August: At least 103 people were killed and another 370 injured   
    when flash floods triggered by torrential rains struck this Himalayan    
    town in Ladakh region, northeast of Indian state Jammu and Kashmir,      
    leaving a trail of death and destruction.                                
                                                                             
    "We have recovered 103 bodies so far and at least 370 are injured. The   
    number of missing cannot be ascertained as yet," state police chief      
    Kuldeep Khoda told PTI over phone from Srinagar. He said the toll may go 
    up.                                                                      
                                                                             
    Leh airport runway was affected but was made operational by afternoon to 
    facilitate landing of aircraft carrying relief material and rescue       
    teams.                                                                   
                                                                             
    State Chief Minister Omar Abdullah flew to Leh to have an on-the-spot    
    assessment of the situation. He visited the flood-hit areas and spoke to 
    the affected families.                                                   
                                                                             
    Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh expressed grief over the loss of    
    life and property in the flash floods and announced an ex-gratia relief  
    of one lakh [one lakh is 100,000] rupees each to next of kin of each of  
    the deceased.                                                            
                                                                             
    The state government also announced that one lakh rupees relief would be 
    given to the families of each of those killed in the natural disaster.   
                                                                             
    Union [federal] Health Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad will fly to Leh         
    tomorrow with relief supplies and a team of 140 personnel of the         
    National Disaster Relief Force along with doctors and paramedical staff  
    in an IL76 IAF [Indian Air Force] aircraft.                              
                                                                             
    Massive rescue operations were underway involving the state police,      
    paramilitary forces and the army in Leh town.                            
                                                                             
    Security personnel were also rushed from Kargil to assist the civil      
    administration in rescue and relief operations.                          
                                                                             
    While many villages like Sabu, Phyang, Nimoo and Choglamsar were         
    affected, the city bore the maximum brunt of the calamity.               
                                                                             
    The communication equipment of BSNL [state-owned telecommunications      
    company] was also washed away in the flash floods and rains that hit the 
    town and adjoining villages in middle of night at around 2 A.M. (IST     
    [Indian Standard Time]). Various buildings and mud-houses in old Leh     
    town were wiped out in the incessant rains.                              
                                                                             
    The cloudbursts left a trail of death and destruction.                   
                                                                             
    The district hospital was flooded, bus stands flattened and vehicles     
    were seen floating in the town.                                          
                                                                             
    Leh is located at a height of 11,500 feet above sea level, 424           
    kilometres from Srinagar.                                                
                                                                             
    Jammu and Kashmir Police has set up two camps and were providing food    
    and shelter to nearly 2,000 people, Khoda said, adding that the camps    
    would remain operational till alternate arrangements were being made.    
                                                                             
    Fifty Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) [paramilitary] jawans          
    [soldiers] were rescued from the flooded areas, Khoda said, adding the   
    JKAP [Jammu and Kashmir Armed Police] building was also washed away in   
    the rains.                                                               
                                                                             
    Source: PTI news agency, New Delhi, in English 1256gmt 06 Aug 10         
                                                                             
    BBC Mon Alert SA1 SAsPol ub                                              

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2010
</description>
    <date>2010-08-06 13:16:04</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 09:00:00</releasedate>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>849048</id>
    <title>BBC Monitoring Alert - INDIA
</title>
    <description>    German foreign minister offers condolences over Indian Kashmir floods    
                                                                             
    Text of report by Indian news agency PTI                                 
                                                                             
    New Delhi, 8 August: Germany has condoled the loss of lives in the flash 
    floods in Leh town in India's northernmost state of Jammu and Kashmir    
    [Indian-administered Kashmir] and thanked Indian authorities for their   
    efforts to search for German nationals, about 100 of whom are stranded   
    there.                                                                   
                                                                             
    In a letter to India's External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna, German    
    Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said: "It is with great shock that I  
    have learned about the catastrophic consequences of the heavy rains in   
    Ladakh, which have cost the lives of so many persons."                   
                                                                             
    Offering condolences to Krishna and the families of the victims, he      
    said: "I sincerely hope for the speedy recovery of all survivors of this 
    tragedy."                                                                
                                                                             
    Westenwelle also hoped that those who are still in the affected area can 
    be brought to safety as soon as possible.                                
                                                                             
    "I would also like to express to you my heartfelt gratitude for the help 
    and excellent cooperation extended by Indian authorities while searching 
    for German tourists who have been and who still are in the region," he   
    said in the letter.                                                      
                                                                             
    The German embassy press release said it is estimated that approximately 
    100 German nationals, including tourists and those working in various    
    projects in Ladakh, were stranded due to the flash floods in Leh.        
                                                                             
    Andre Alexander, project leader of the NGO "Tibetan Heritage Fund" has   
    been entrusted with the task of overseeing the rescue and evacuation     
    operations of the German nationals, it said.                             
                                                                             
    Source: PTI news agency, New Delhi, in English 0944gmt 08 Aug 10         
                                                                             
    BBC Mon SA1 SAsPol nj                                                    

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2010
</description>
    <date>2010-08-08 10:09:05</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 09:00:00</releasedate>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>852777</id>
    <title>BBC Monitoring Alert - INDIA
</title>
    <description>    Around 130 killed, over 600 missing in Indian Kashmir floods             
                                                                             
    Text of report by Indian news agency PTI                                 
                                                                             
    Leh, 7 August: With the recovery of more bodies, the toll in the         
    cloudburst here Saturday [7 August] climbed to 130 even as 600 more are  
    feared washed away in the calamity that was followed by torrential rains 
    and flash floods devastating this Himalayan town in Ladakh region in     
    India's northernmost state Jammu &amp; Kasmir [Indian-administered Kashmir]. 
                                                                             
    Sources fear that the death toll could cross over 500 as several far     
    flung villages were yet to be accessed by rescue teams in this           
    high-altitude terrain.                                                   
                                                                             
    "We have recovered 130 bodies so far and at least 370 are injured. The   
    number of missing is yet to be ascertained," State Police Chief Kuldeep  
    Khoda said, adding the toll may go up.                                   
                                                                             
    A small village before Choglumsur, which bore the brunt of the incessant 
    rains, was completely wiped out as rescue workers were looking for       
    survivors in the mud slush and debris.                                   
                                                                             
    Over 200 people were still reported to be missing from the worst-hit     
    village Choglumsar, 13 kms from here.                                    
                                                                             
    A contractor told senior state administration officials that 150         
    labourers employed by him were missing from Shyong village where he had  
    lodged them. The colony was set up along Indus river and the officials   
    feared that many huts would have been washed away in the flash floods.   
                                                                             
    The Army has been asked to give an account of local and outstation       
    labourers.                                                               
                                                                             
    Authorities said that the Army had suffered losses in Turtuk area. Some  
    of the villages along the Chang La pass, world's second highest          
    motorable road, were also believed to have been washed away in the       
    torrential rains.                                                        
                                                                             
    Union Minister Farooq Abdullah reached the area Saturday morning from    
    Kashmir. Later two of his cabinet colleagues -- Ghulam Nabi Azad and     
    Prithviraj Chavan -- also reached here after making an earlier           
    unsuccessful attempt to land.                                            
                                                                             
    State Chief Minister Omar Abdullah had Friday visited the affected areas 
    and made an on-the-spot assessment of the situation.                     
                                                                             
    Army spokesman Colonel J S Brar told PTI that rescue operations which    
    had slowed down due to heavy rains have picked up again.                 
                                                                             
    "Two commercial planes have landed...A relief plane is about to reach,"  
    he said.                                                                 
                                                                             
    Police, Indo-Tibetan Border Police Force (ITBP) and civil administration 
    are collectively involved in the rescue operation.                       
                                                                             
    "Police and ITBP have established camps in the affected area. Civil      
    administration is helping to its maximum," Brar said.                    
                                                                             
    "Among the injured, 300 have been treated...The other injured are        
    treated in army hospital. The 31 Army jawans missing haven't still been  
    located. We found a body," he said.                                      
                                                                             
    President Pratibha Patil and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had Friday    
    expressed grief over the tragedy.                                        
                                                                             
    An ex-gratia relief of Rs one lakh each was announced by the Prime       
    Minister to next of kin of each of the deceased.                         
                                                                             
    Meanwhile, Chief Minister of Maharashtra state in west India Ashok       
    Chavan called the Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister and expressed grief   
    over the loss of lives in the Leh cloudburst.                            
                                                                             
    Chavan rang up Omar and offered all possible help from Maharashtra.      
    Abdullah thanked Chavan for the gesture, an official in Mumbai said.     
                                                                             
    Source: PTI news agency, New Delhi, in English 0843gmt 07 Aug 10         
                                                                             
    BBC Mon SA1 SAsPol ng                                                    

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2010
</description>
    <date>2010-08-07 13:50:08</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 09:00:00</releasedate>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>853378</id>
    <title>BBC Monitoring Alert - INDIA
</title>
    <description>    Toll in Indian Kashmir floods rises to 145                               
                                                                             
    Text of report by Indian news agency PTI                                 
                                                                             
    Choglumsar (Leh), 8 August: Rescue workers in India struggled through    
    piles of mud and slush looking for over 500 people missing in the        
    Friday's [6 August] devastating cloudburst that flattened villages and   
    snapped power and communication links, even as the death toll in the     
    tragedy Sunday mounted to 145.                                           
                                                                             
    The once picturesque landscape has turned into a disaster zone, with     
    tossed up vehicles lying scattered and mounds of silt and slush burying  
    houses made of mud called "gomfa" and shops.                             
                                                                             
    Walking on the layers of unstable mud in one of the worst-hit Choglusmar 
    village, you could find the high tension wires hanging right next to     
    you.                                                                     
                                                                             
    Rescuers waded through knee-deep mud to extricate trapped people.        
    Personnel of Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP), army and General Reserve 
    Engineer Force (GREF) ploughed through the silt and boulders with earth  
    movers, cranes and other machines; tourists were seen giving a helping   
    hand.                                                                    
                                                                             
    The death toll has climbed to 145, while over 500 were still to be       
    accounted for after the cloudburst and flash floods, official sources    
    said.                                                                    
                                                                             
    Both the ITBP and the army have set up various camps to look after       
    hundreds of injured. The ITBP had also set up community kitchens along   
    the roads, which are feeding the homeless.                               
                                                                             
    The biggest roadblock that rescue workers are facing is communication    
    breakdown as the BSNL office was severely damaged in the deluge.         
                                                                             
    "The major problem is due to the communication breakdown. If             
    communication is restored it, will help in coordination of rescue        
    operations in a better way," Pashi Tsetan, deputy director with the      
    development wing of the local administration, said.                      
                                                                             
    The district hospital building had been inundated by the swirling        
    waters, forcing the administration to move to an under-construction      
    building.                                                                
                                                                             
    Hundreds of people with bandages crowd the building. Doctors say many of 
    the injured were swept away by the deluge for considerable distances     
    before being rescued.                                                    
                                                                             
    The bodies of two French nationals, identified as [names omitted], were  
    retrieved from under the debris, the sources said.                       
                                                                             
    Meanwhile, army Sunday said 33 soldiers were washed away in flash floods 
    in Shyok river of Ladakh region near Siachen on Friday.                  
                                                                             
    The army has sought the help of Pakistani authorities to trace the       
    personnel who were on duty on the Line of Control [Kashmir cease-fire    
    line] as they fear that they might have been swept away towards          
    Pakistan-occupied Kashmir [Pakistan-administered Kashmir] in the deluge. 
                                                                             
    A group of about 45 National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) personnel    
    have also joined the rescue efforts in Leh. The NDRF team has brought    
    with them high-tech equipment to gear up rescue operations.              
                                                                             
    "The focus is on rescue operations. This is a disaster of huge           
    proportions. The effort of all agencies is to rescue the maximum number  
    of people," said ITBP DIG [deputy inspector-general] P.K. Dhasmana, who  
    is leading hundreds of rescuers.                                         
                                                                             
    As many as 1,314 passengers, mostly Indian and foreign tourists, were    
    airlifted from Leh and brought to Delhi, Aviation Ministry sources said. 
                                                                             
    JET airways and Air India operated four flights each and Kingfisher      
    three to carry medical and other relief material, doctors and paramedics 
    to help affected people in Leh, they said.                               
                                                                             
    Three IL-76 and four AN-32 aircraft carrying relief material reached Leh 
    this morning.                                                            
                                                                             
    "We have recovered 145 bodies so far, while the number of missing is     
    around 500," an official said, adding, the toll may go up.               
                                                                             
    ITBP is helping plug the breaches to make NH-1A between Srinagar-Kargil  
    and Kargil-Leh functional. Faced with an acute shortage of clean         
    drinking water, the ITBP has dispatched tankers containing drinking      
    water to the affected areas, Deepak Pandey spokesperson for the border   
    guarding force said.                                                     
                                                                             
    The force has also established a medical camp in Saboo village, which is 
    located above Chuglumsar village, Pandey said.                           
                                                                             
    Bodies of eleven persons were Sunday flown in an Indian Air Force plane  
    to Udhampur in Jammu region, from where they were sent to Jammu and      
    Kashmir [Indian-administered Kashmir], Punjab and Rajasthan, police      
    said.                                                                    
                                                                             
    Source: PTI news agency, New Delhi, in English 1346gmt 08 Aug 10         
                                                                             
    BBC Mon SA1 SAsPol nj                                                    

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2010
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>861058</id>
    <title>BBC Monitoring Alert - INDIA
</title>
    <description>    Indian Kashmir flood toll rises to 112                                   
                                                                             
    Text of report by Indian news agency PTI                                 
                                                                             
    Leh, 6 August: Over 110 people were killed and a few hundred more are    
    feared washed away in a cloudburst followed by torrential rains and      
    flash floods that devastated this Himalayan town in Ladakh region of     
    Jammu and Kashmir [Indian-administered Kashmir] in north India early     
    Friday [6 August] morning.                                               
                                                                             
    Eyewitness accounts and other sources fear that the death toll could     
    cross over 500 as several far flung villages were yet to be accessed by  
    rescue teams in this high-altitude terrain.                              
                                                                             
    "We have recovered 112 bodies so far and at least 370 are injured. The   
    number of missing is yet to be ascertained," State Police Chief Kuldeep  
    Khoda said and added that the toll may go up.                            
                                                                             
    A contractor told senior state administration officials that 150 of his  
    labourers were missing from Shyong village where he had lodged them. The 
    colony was set up along the river Sindh and the officials feared that    
    many huts would have been washed away in the flash floods.               
                                                                             
    The Army was being asked to give an account of local and outstation      
    labourers. Over 200 people were still reported to be missing from the    
    worst-hit village Chougham Sar, 13 kms from here.                        
                                                                             
    Authorities said that the Army had suffered losses in Turtuk area. Some  
    of the villages along the Chang La pass, world's second highest          
    motorable road, were also believed to have been washed away in the       
    torrential rains.                                                        
                                                                             
    A three-member Central team comprising Farooq Abdullah, Ghulam Nabi Azad 
    and Prithviraj Chavan will be visiting the area on Saturday.             
                                                                             
    The nation, led by President Pratibha Patil expressed grief over the     
    tragedy that had befallen on this town during the night.                 
                                                                             
    Prime Minister Manmohan Singh too expressed sorrow over the loss of life 
    and property in the flash floods and announced ex-gratia relief of one   
    lakh rupees [one lakh equals 100,000] each to next of kin of each of the 
    deceased.                                                                
                                                                             
    Leh airport runway was affected due to the inclement weather but was     
    made operational by afternoon to facilitate landing of aircraft carrying 
    relief material and rescue teams.                                        
                                                                             
    Chief Minister Omar Abdullah flew to Leh to make an on-the-spot          
    assessment of the situation. He visited the areas and spoke to the       
    affected families.                                                       
                                                                             
    Omar reviewed the rescue and relief measures being jointly carried out   
    by the Army, police and district administration. He directed the Leh     
    administration to be at the beck and call of the people in this need of  
    hour.                                                                    
                                                                             
    The chief minister said the focus should be on rescuing those who are    
    expected to be alive under the debris.                                   
                                                                             
    Expressing deep grief and sorrow over the loss of human lives, Omar said 
    the critically injured persons will be airlifted from Leh to other       
    hospitals for appropriate treatment.                                     
                                                                             
    He also visited Chougham Sar, Old Town, Sonam Narboo Hospital and other  
    affected areas and interacted with people at these places.               
                                                                             
    The state government has announced two lakh rupees relief for the        
    families of each of those killed in the natural disaster. Union Health   
    Minister Gulam Nabi Azad is scheduled to fly to Leh on Saturday with     
    relief supplies and a team of 140 personnel of the National Disaster     
    Relief Force along with doctors and paramedical staff in an IL76 IAF     
    [Indian Air Force] aircraft.                                             
                                                                             
    While many villages like Sabu, Phyang, Nimoo and Choglamsar were         
    affected, the city bore the maximum brunt of the calamity.               
                                                                             
    Communication equipment of BSNL was washed away in the flash floods and  
    rains that hit the town and adjoining villages in the middle of night at 
    around 2 am (IST) [2030 gmt]. Various buildings and mud-houses in old    
    Leh town collapsed in the incessant rains.                               
                                                                             
    Those who did manage to reach the district hospital were in for a shock  
    as the premises was also flooded. Bus stands were flattened by the       
    gushing water and vehicles were seen floating in the town and the JKAP   
    building was also washed away.                                           
                                                                             
    Jammu and Kashmir Police has set up two camps and were providing food    
    and shelter to nearly 2,000 people, officials said, adding that the      
    camps would remain operational till alternate arrangements were being    
    made.                                                                    
                                                                             
    CRPF [Central Reserve Police Force] jawans [soldiers] who were rushed    
    for rescue operations also faced the brunt of nature's fury as nearly 50 
    of them were trapped at a place and had to be rescued by another team.   
    Leh is located at a height of 11,500 feet above sea level, 424           
    kilometres from Srinagar.                                                
                                                                             
    Source: PTI news agency, New Delhi, in English 1736gmt 06 Aug 10         
                                                                             
    BBC Mon SA1 SAsPol ng                                                    

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2010
</description>
    <date>2010-08-07 06:40:05</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>865756</id>
    <title>Re: [latam] BRAZIL - Interesting interview,
	analysis of recent favel wars and reorganization
</title>
    <description>   it's y'all, haha. get it right, fedirka
   please write to him and send him our own analysis. good way to start a
   dialogue.
   On Dec 7, 2010, at 1:06 PM, Allison Fedirka wrote:

     this other 'specialist' aslo had and interesting take on the situation. 
     I may try stalking him if we think he'd be interesting to write to/talk
     with.  Some of his comments were right in line with our analysis which
     is always cool.  (so this is my virtual pat on the back to ya'all? 
     y'all? ya'll?)

     "Quem acha que a batalha do Alemao vai acabar com o trafico, esta
     enganado", afirma escritor
     Carlos Amorim contesta a onda otimista desencadeada pelas recentes
     ac,oes policiais no Rio de Janeiro

  29/11/2010 -
  http://www.clicrbs.com.br/diariocatarinense/jsp/default.jsp?uf=2&amp;section=Geral&amp;newsID=a3124725.htm

     Um dos maiores especialistas no estudo de facc,oes criminosas e crime
     organizado no pais, o escritor Carlos Amorim contesta a onda otimista
     desencadeada pelas recentes ac,oes policiais no Rio de Janeiro. Autor de
     tres livros sobre o tema (Comando Vermelho * a historia secreta do crime
     organizado, Ed. Record, 1994, ganhador do Jabuti do mesmo ano; CV-PCC -
     A irmandade do crime, 2004; e O Assalto ao Poder, 2010), o jornalista,
     que dedicou mais da metade de sua vida a pesquisar a criminalidade no
     Brasil, afirma que combater os traficantes das favelas e apenas parte de
     um processo mais complexo.

     * Quem acha que a batalha do Alemao vai acabar com o trafico ou o crime,
     esta enganado. O Comando Vermelho ocupava aquela area ha quase 30 anos,
     inclusive com hoteis para receber seus fornecedores estrangeiros e seus
     socios do PCC. Quanto tempo os militares ficarao por la? Nossos
     governantes nem sabem direito o que e crime organizado. Os chefes do
     trafico de drogas e de armas, da pirataria e do contrabando, nao moram
     em favelas e nao serao presos.

     O escritor tambem questiona a falta de atenc,ao do governo do Rio `as
     milicias e `a corrupc,ao policial.

     * Por que o governador Sergio Cabral nao aproveitou a ofensiva contra o
     crime organizado para atacar tambem as milicias, que ocupam quase cem
     favelas na cidade? Esses grupos paramilitares agem como forc,as
     auxiliares da policia. Por que nao aproveitou o momento de mobilizac,ao
     para anunciar um plano de reforma do aparelho policial e combate `a
     corrupc,ao entre as forc,as da lei? Estava na hora de fazer tudo isso?
     Nao! Essa hora ja passou ha muito tempo! Depois do calor das emoc,oes,
     tudo isso escorrega para o silencio.

     Em site especial, entenda o caso:

     Amorim aposta que os ataques da semana passada nao sao apenas uma
     represalia `a instalac,ao das Unidades de Policia Pacificadora (UPPs) no
     RJ. Na sua avaliac,ao, os incendios podem ter sido motivados pela
     transferencia de lideranc,as da facc,ao para presidios em outros
     Estados, alem de servir como moeda de troca para uma eventual tregua
     durante a Copa do Mundo e as Olimpiadas.

     * A explicac,ao oficial e de que eles estavam perdendo territorios para
     as Unidades de Policia Pacificadora (UPPs). Dificil de acreditar, porque
     essas unidades existem apenas em 12 (agora 13) das mais de mil favelas
     cariocas, uma gota no oceano. Em todos os levantes do crime organizado,
     ha sempre uma pauta de reivindicac,oes. Essas reivindicac,oes nao saem
     na midia e sao tratadas discretamente entre criminosos e autoridades.
     Foi assim nos ataques do Comando Vermelho nos anos 1980 e 1990, quando
     os criminosos orquestravam rebelioes sangrentas e metralhavam predios
     publicos no Rio de Janeiro. Nesse periodo, o governador Moreira Franco
     sofreu dois atentados `a bala, escapando por pouco. Essas ac,oes foram
     planejadas. E qual era a pauta de reivindicac,oes? O fim do isolamento
     das lideranc,as da organizac,ao no recem criado presidio de seguranc,a
     maxima de Bangu Um. * detalha.

     Apesar de as autoridades gauchas negarem que a violencia no Estado possa
     se equiparar ao Rio de Janeiro, o escritor tem uma visao mais pessimista
     sobre o tema.

     * O crime organizado esta presente em todo o pais, inclusive no Rio
     Grande do Sul. Nas cadeias, impera a vontade e a ideologia das
     organizac,oes criminosas. As rotas do trafico se estendem sobre o sul do
     Brasil, com vistas `a Argentina e ao Uruguai, e, dai, para a Africa e
     Europa. O numero de apreensoes de drogas e de pessoas envolvidas com o
     trafico no Sul so faz aumentar a cada ano. O Sul virou uma rota
     alternativa, fugindo da pressao repressiva no Sudeste. Infelizmente, a
     ac,ao dos bandidos so pode ser medida em escalas nacional e
     internacional * finaliza.

     On 12/7/2010 1:00 PM, Allison Fedirka wrote:

       This dude is a Prof at Universidade Rural do Rio de Janeiro and is a
       sociologist.  Interesting interview and analysis of the situation.  If
       between google translate and the Portguese there's still a desire for
       a more detailed summary let me know and we can pull one together
       later.

       Uma guerra pela regeografizac,ao do Rio de Janeiro. Entrevista 
       especial com Jose Claudio Alves                                
       Texto publicado em 01 de Dezembro de 2010 - 16h07              
         http://www.portogente.com.br/texto.php?cod=36709             
                                                                      
       *O que esta por tras desses conflitos urbanos e uma            
       reconfigurac,ao da geopolitica do crime na cidade*. Assim      
       descreve o sociologo Jose Claudio Souza Alves a motivac,ao     
       principal dos conflitos que estao se dando entre traficantes e 
       a policia do Rio de Janeiro. Na entrevista a seguir, concedida 
       `a IHU On-Line por telefone, o professor analisa a composic,ao 
       geografica do conflito e reflete as estrategias de             
       reorganizac,ao das facc,oes e milicias durante esses embates.  
       *A midia nos faz crer * sobretudo a Rede Globo esta empenhada  
       nisso * que ha uma luta entre o bem e o mal. O bem e a         
       seguranc,a publica e a policia do Rio de Janeiro e o mal sao   
       os traficantes que estao sendo combatidos. Na verdade, isso e  
       uma falacia. Nao existe essa realidade. O que existe e essa    
       reorganizac,ao da estrutura do crime*, explica.                
                                                                      
       Jose Claudio Souza Alves e graduado em Estudos Sociais pela    
       Fundac,ao Educacional de Brusque. E mestre em sociologia pela  
       Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro e doutor,   
       na mesma area, pela Universidade de Sao Paulo. Atualmente, e   
       professor na Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro      
       e membro do Iser Assessoria..                                  
                                                                      
       Confira a entrevista.                                          
                                                                      
       IHU On-Line * O que esta por tras desses conflitos atuais no   
       Rio de Janeiro?                                                
                                                                      
       Jose Claudio Alves * O que esta por tras desses conflitos      
       urbanos e uma reconfigurac,ao da geopolitica do crime na       
       cidade. Isso ja vem se dando ha algum tempo e culminou na      
       situac,ao que estamos vivendo atualmente. Ha elementos         
       presentes nesse conflito que vem de periodos maiores da        
       historia do Rio de Janeiro, um deles e o surgimento das        
       milicias que nada mais sao do que estruturas de violencia      
       construidas a partir do aparato policial de forma mais         
       explicita. Elas, portanto, controlarao varias favelas do RJ e  
       serao inseridas no processo de expulsao do Comando Vermelho e  
       pelo fortalecimento de uma outra facc,ao chamada Terceiro      
       Comando. Ha uma terceira facc,ao chamada Ada, que e um         
       desdobramento do Comando Vermelho e que opera nos confrontos   
       que vao ocorrer junto a essa primeira facc,ao em determinadas  
       areas. Na verdade, o Comando Vermelho foi se transformando num 
       segmento que esta perdendo sua hegemonia sobre a organizac,ao  
       do crime no Rio de Janeiro. Quem esta avanc,ando, ao longo do  
       tempo, sao as milicias em articulac,ao com o Terceiro Comando. 
                                                                      
       Um elemento determinante nessa reconfigurac,ao foi o           
       surgimento das UPPs a partir de uma politica de ocupac,ao de   
       determinadas favelas, sobretudo da zona sul do RJ. Seus        
       interesses estao voltados para a questao do capital do         
       turismo, industrial, comercial, terceiro setor, ou seja, o     
       capital que estara envolvido nas Olimpiadas. Entao, a expulsao 
       das favelas cariocas feita pelas UPPs ocorre em cima do        
       segmento do Comando Vermelho. Por isso, o que esta acontecendo 
       agora e um rearranjo dessa estrutura. O Comando Vermelho esta  
       indo agora para um confronto que aterroriza a populac,ao para  
       que um novo acordo se estabelec,a em relac,ao a areas e        
       espac,os para que esse segmento se estabelec,a e sobreviva.    
                                                                      
       IHU On-Line * Mas, entao, o que esta em jogo?                  
                                                                      
       Jose Claudio Alves * Nao esta em jogo a destruic,ao da         
       estrutura do crime, ela esta se rearranjando apenas. Nesse     
       rearranjo quem vai se sobressair sao, sobretudo, as milicias,  
       o Terceiro Comando * que vem crescendo junto e operando com as 
       milicias * e a politica de seguranc,a do Estado calcada nas    
       UPPs * que nao alteraram a relac,ao com o trafico de drogas. A 
       midia nos faz crer * sobretudo a Rede Globo esta empenhada     
       nisso * que ha uma luta entre o bem e o mal. O bem e a         
       seguranc,a publica e a policia do Rio de Janeiro e o mal sao   
       os traficantes que estao sendo combatidos. Na verdade, isso e  
       uma falacia. Nao existe essa realidade. O que existe e essa    
       reorganizac,ao da estrutura do crime.                          
                                                                      
       A realidade do RJ exige hoje uma analise muito profunda e      
       complexa e nao essa espetacularizac,ao midiatica, que tem um   
       objetivo: escorrac,ar um segmento do crime organizado e        
       favorecer a constelac,ao de outra composic,ao hegemonica do    
       crime no RJ.                                                   
                                                                      
       IHU On-Line * Por que esse confronto nasceu na Vila Cruzeiro?  
                                                                      
       Jose Claudio Alves * Porque a partir dessa reconfigurac,ao que 
       foi sendo feita das milicias e das UPPs (Unidades de           
       Policiamento Pacificadoras), o Comando Vermelho comec,ou a     
       estabelecer uma base operacional muito forte no Complexo do    
       Alemao. Este lugar envolve um conjunto de favelas com um       
       conjunto de entradas e saidas. O centro desse complexo e       
       constituido de areas abertas que sao remanescentes de matas.   
       Essa estruturac,ao geografica e paisagistica daquela regiao    
       favoreceu muito a presenc,a do Comando Vermelho la. Mas se     
       observarmos todas as operac,oes, veremos que elas estao        
       seguindo o eixo da Central do Brasil e Leopoldina, que sao     
       dois eixos ferroviarios que conectam o centro do RJ ao         
       suburbio e `a Baixada Fluminense. Todos os confrontos estao    
       ocorrendo nesse eixo.                                          
                                                                      
       IHU On-Line * Por que nesse eixo, em especifico?               
                                                                      
       Jose Claudio Alves * Porque, ao longo desse eixo, ha varias    
       comunidades que ainda pertencem ao Comando Vermelho. Nao tao   
       fortemente estruturadas, nao de forma organizada como no       
       Complexo do Alemao, mas sao comunidades que permanecem como    
       nucleos que sao facilmente articulados. Por exemplo: a favela  
       de Vigario Geral foi tomada pelo Terceiro Comando porque hoje  
       as milicias controlam essa favela e a de Parada de Lucas a     
       alugam para o Terceiro Comando. Mas ao lado, cerca de dois     
       quilometros de distancia dessa favela, existe uma menor que e  
       a favela de Furquim Mendes, controlada pelo Comando Vermelho.  
       Logo, as operac,oes que estao ocorrendo agora em Vigario       
       Geral, Jardim America e em Duque de Caxias estao tendo um      
       nucleo de operac,ao a partir de Furquim Mendes. O objetivo     
       maior e, portanto, desmobilizar e rearranjar essa              
       configurac,ao favorecendo novamente o Comando Vermelho.        
                                                                      
       Entao, o combate no Complexo do Alemao e meramente simbolico   
       nessa disputa. Por isso, invadir o Complexo do Alemao nao vai  
       acabar com o trafico no Rio de Janeiro. Ha varios pontos onde  
       as milicias e as diferentes facc,oes estao instaladas. O mais  
       drastico e que quem vai morrer nesse confronto e a populac,ao  
       civil e inocente, que nao tem acesso `a comunicac,ao, saude,   
       luz... Ha todo um drama social que essa populac,ao vai ser     
       submetida de forma injusta, arbitraria, ignorante, estupida,   
       meramente voltada aos interesses midiaticos, de venda de       
       imagens e para os interesses de um projeto de politica de      
       seguranc,a publica que ressalta a execuc,ao sumaria. No Rio de 
       Janeiro a execuc,ao sumaria foi elevada `a categoria de        
       politica publica pelo atual governo.                           
                                                                      
       IHU On-Line * Em que contexto geografico esta localizado a     
       Vila Cruzeiro?                                                 
                                                                      
       Jose Claudio Alves * A Vila Cruzeiro esta localizada no que    
       nos chamamos de zona da Leopoldina. Ela esta ao pe do Complexo 
       do Alemao, so que na face que esse complexo tem voltada para a 
       Penha. A Penha e um bairro da Leopoldina. Essa regiao da       
       Leopoldina se constituiu no eixo da estrada de ferro           
       Leopoldina, que comec,a na Central do Brasil, passa por Sao    
       Cristovao e dali vai seguir por Bom Sucesso, Penha, Olaria,    
       Vigario Geral * que e onde eu moro e que e a ultima parada da  
       Leopoldina e ai se entra na Baixada Fluminense com a estac,ao  
       de Duque de Caxias.                                            
                                                                      
       Esse *corredor* foi um dos maiores eixos de favelizac,ao da    
       cidade do Rio de Janeiro. A favelizac,ao que, inicialmente,    
       ocorre na zona sul nao encontra a possibilidade de adensamento 
       maior. Ela fica restrita a algumas favelas. Tirando a da       
       Rocinha, que e a maior do Rio de Janeiro, os outros complexos  
       todos * como o da Mare e do Alemao * estao localizados no eixo 
       da zona da Leopoldina ate Avenida Brasil. A Leopoldina e de    
       1887-1888, ja a Avenida Brasil e de 1946. E nesse prazo de     
       tempo que esse eixo se tornou o mais favelizado do RJ. Logo, a 
       Vila Cruzeiro e apenas uma das faces do Complexo do Alemao e e 
       a de maior facilidade para a entrada da policia, onde se pode  
       fazer operac,oes de grande porte como foi feita na             
       quinta-feira, dia 25-11. No entanto, isso nao expressa o       
       Complexo do Alemao em si.                                      
                                                                      
       A Mare fica do outro lado da Avenida Brasil. Ela tem quase 200 
       mil habitantes. Uma parte dela pertence ao Comando Vermelho, a 
       outra parte e do Terceiro Comando. Por que nao se faz nenhuma  
       operac,ao num complexo tao grande ou maior do que o do Alemao? 
       Ninguem cita isso! Por que nao se entra nas favelas onde os o  
       Terceiro Comando esta operando? Porque o Terceiro Comando ja   
       tem acordo com as milicias e com a politica de seguranc,a. Por 
       isso, as atuac,oes se dao em cima de uma das faces mais        
       frageis do Complexo do Alemao, como se isso fosse alguma coisa 
       significativa.                                                 
                                                                      
       IHU On-Line * Estando a Vila Cruzeiro numa das faces do        
       Complexo, por que o Alemao se tornou o reduto de fuga dos      
       traficantes?                                                   
                                                                      
       Jose Claudio Alves * A estrutura dele e muito mais complexa    
       para que se fac,a qualquer tipo de operac,ao la. Ha facilidade 
       de fuga, porque ha varias faces de saida. Nao e uma favela que 
       a policia consegue cercar. Mesmo juntando a policia do RJ      
       inteiro e o Exercito Nacional jamais se conseguiria cercar o   
       complexo. O Alemao e muito maior do que se possa imaginar.     
       Entao, e uma area que permite a reorganizac,ao e               
       reestruturac,ao do Comando Vermelho. Mas existem varias outras 
       bases do Comando Vermelho pulverizadas em toda a area da       
       Leopoldina e Central do Brasil que estao tambem operando.      
                                                                      
       Mesmo que se consiga ocupar todo o Complexo do Alemao, o       
       Comando Vermelho ainda tem possibilidades de reestruturac,ao   
       em outras pequenas areas. Ninguem fala, por exemplo, da        
       Baixada Fluminense, mas Duque de Caxias, Nova Iguac,u,         
       Mesquita, Belford Roxo sao areas que hoje estao sendo          
       reconfiguradas em termos de trafico de drogas a partir da ida  
       do Comando Vermelho para la.                                   
                                                                      
       Por exemplo, um bairro de Duque de Caxias chamado Olavo Bilac  
       e proximo de uma comunidade chamada Mangueirinha, que e um     
       morro. Essa comunidade ja e controlada pelo Comando Vermelho   
       que esta adensando a elevac,ao da Mangueirinha e Olavo Bilac   
       ja esta sentindo os efeitos diretos dessa reocupac,ao. Mas     
       ninguem esta falando nada sobre isso.                          
                                                                      
       A realidade do Rio de Janeiro e muito mais complexa do que se  
       possa imaginar. O Comando Vermelho, assim como outras facc,oes 
       e milicias, estabelece relac,ao direta com o aparato de        
       seguranc,a publica do Rio de Janeiro. Em todas essas areas ha  
       trafico de armas feito pela policia, em todas essas areas o    
       trafico de drogas permanece em func,ao de acordos com o        
       aparato policial.                                              
                                                                      
       IHU On-Line * Podemos comparar esses traficantes que estao     
       coordenando os conflitos no RJ com o PCC, de Sao Paulo?        
                                                                      
       Jose Claudio Alves * So podemos analisar a historia do Rio de  
       Janeiro, fazendo um retrospecto da historia e da geografia. O  
       PCC, em Sao Paulo, tem uma trajetoria muito diferente das      
       facc,oes do Rio de Janeiro, tanto que a estrutura do PCC se da 
       dentro dos presidios. Quando a midia noticia que os            
       traficantes no Rio de Janeiro presos estao operando os         
       conflitos, leia-se, por tras disso, que a estrutura            
       penitenciaria do Estado se transformou na estrutura            
       organizacional do crime. Nao estou dizendo que o Estado foi    
       corrompido. Estou dizendo que o proprio estado em si e o       
       crime. O mercado e o Estado sao os grandes problemas da        
       sociedade brasileira. O mercado de drogas, articulado com o    
       mercado de seguranc,a publica, com o mercado de trafico de     
       drogas, de roubo, com o proprio sistema financeiro brasileiro, 
       e quem tem interesse em perpetuar tudo isso.                   
                                                                      
       A articulac,ao entre economia formal, economia criminosa e     
       aparato estatal se da em Sao Paulo de uma forma diferente em   
       relac,ao ao Rio de Janeiro. Expulsar o Comando Vermelho dessas 
       areas interessa `a manutenc,ao economica do capital. O que ha  
       de semelhanc,a sao as operac,oes de terror, operac,oes de      
       confronto aberto dentro da cidade para reestruturar o crime e  
       reorganiza-lo em patamares mais favoraveis ao segmento que     
       esta ganhando ou perdendo.                                     
                                                                      
       IHU On-Line * Como o senhor avalia essa politica de            
       instalac,ao das UPPs * Unidades de Policiamento Pacificadoras  
       nas favelas do Rio de Janeiro?                                 
                                                                      
       Jose Claudio Alves * E uma politica midiatica de visibilidade  
       de seguranc,a no Rio de Janeiro e Brasil. A presidente eleita  
       quase transformou as UPPs na politica de seguranc,a publica do 
       pais e quer reproduzir as UPPs em todo o Brasil. A UPP e uma   
       grande farsa. Nas favelas ocupadas pelas UPSs podem ser        
       encontrados ex-traficantes que continuam operando, mas com     
       menos intensidade. A desigualdade social permanece, assim como 
       o nao acesso `a saude, educac,ao, propriedade da terra,        
       transporte. A policia esta la para garantir o nao tiroteio,    
       mas isso nao garante a nao existencia de crimes. A meu ver,    
       ate agora, as UPPs sao apenas formas de fachada de uma         
       politica de seguranc,a e economica de grupos de capitais       
       dominantes na cidade para estabelecer um novo projeto e        
       reconfigurac,ao dessa estrutura.                               
                                                                      
       IHU On-Line * A tensao no Rio de Janeiro, neste momento, e     
       diferente de outros momentos de conflito entre policia e       
       traficantes?                                                   
                                                                      
       Jose Claudio Alves * Sim, porque a dimensao e mais ampla, mais 
       aberta. Dizer que eles estao operando de forma desarticulada,  
       desesperada, desorganizada e uma mentira. A estrutura que o    
       Comando Vermelho organiza vem sendo elaborada ha mais de cinco 
       anos e ela tem sido, agora, colocada em pratica de uma forma   
       muito mais intensa do que jamais foi visto.                    
                                                                      
       A grande questao e saber o que se opera no fundo imaginario e  
       simbolico que esta sendo construido de quem sao, de fato, os   
       inimigos da sociedade fluminense e brasileira. Essa questao    
       vai ter efeitos muito mais venosos para a sociedade            
       empobrecida e favelizada. E isso que esta em jogo agora.       
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 20:13:04</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-02 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/865756_re-latam-brazil-interesting-interview-analysis-of-recent.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>latam@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:latam@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>866124</id>
    <title>Random Business Idea - Network Security
</title>
    <description>   I'm sure this has been thought of before at STRATFOR so excuse the
   redundancy. I was reading a solid Forbes article on Assange and it said
   that a large number of deep pocket corporations were looking into
   leak-focused network security after these Wikileak episodes.

   I was wondering if it was possible for us to get some of that
   "leak-focused" gravy train. This is an obvious fear sale, so that's a good
   thing. And we have something to offer that the IT security companies
   don't, mainly our focus on counter-intelligence and surveillance that Fred
   and Stick know better than anyone on the planet.

   We do a lot of good work with all the personal/executive security analysis
   as well. Could we develop some ideas and procedures on the idea of
   "leak-focused" network security that focuses on preventing one's own
   employees from leaking sensitive information.

   The point here is that I am sure there are certain procedures and
   precautions that companies should employ that go beyond installing network
   security network to deal with potential leaks. In fact, Im not so sure
   this is an IT problem that requires an IT solution.

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-09 02:38:51</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/866124_random-business-idea-network-security-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>866142</id>
    <title>BBC Monitoring Alert - INDIA
</title>
    <description>    Floods in Indian Kashmir kill 165, 400 still missing                     
                                                                             
    Text of report by Indian news agency PTI                                 
                                                                             
    Leh, 9 August: Rescue and relief efforts were being carried out on a     
    war-footing in cloudburst-hit Leh region of north Indian state Jammu and 
    Kashmir [Indian-administered Kashmir], as 81 foreigners and six tour     
    guides stranded in Zanskar valley were Monday [9 August] rescued by the  
    air force, while death toll mounted to 165 and 400 others remained       
    missing.                                                                 
                                                                             
    165 people have been killed, of whom 150 have been identified so far,    
    official sources said, adding the victims include a Romanian woman, 15   
    Nepalese nationals and two Tibetans.                                     
                                                                             
    Two French nationals and a Spaniard were yet to be traced, they said.    
                                                                             
    The Indian Air Force [IAF] carried out a record 62 sorties by Chetak     
    helicopters in five-and-half-hours to bring back 81 foreign campers and  
    six tour guides from the 11,000-ft Zanskar valley, who were stuck there  
    since intervening night of 5 and 6 August after cloudburst and flash     
    floods wreaked havoc in Leh and surrounding areas.                       
                                                                             
    The foreigners rescued include 17 British and French nationals, nine     
    people from the Netherlands, eight from Czechoslovakia, seven Germans    
    and four Israelis, according to IAF officials.                           
                                                                             
    200 people, including foreigners, are still stranded in various places   
    in the affected area, officials said.                                    
                                                                             
    Sniffer dogs, which arrived here by an IAF transport aircraft, have been 
    pressed into service to look for survivors as relief efforts by security 
    forces gained momentum, who were taking the help of heavy duty           
    bulldozers and other machines to clear the rubble.                       
                                                                             
    The army, Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP), General Reserve Engineer    
    Force (GREF), police and civilian authorities were trying hard to remove 
    the piles of mud and slush which had buried villages in the              
    worst-battered Choglusmar belt here as well as to restore telephone      
    links, the sources said.                                                 
                                                                             
    Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah today visited Leh for the 
    second time after the tragedy struck and directed the Border Roads       
    Organization to clear the Manali-Leh highway within next three days. He  
    asked the officials engaged in relief work to ensure that procedural     
    formalities do not delay the operation.                                  
                                                                             
    The highway which was swept away in flash floods is one of the two road  
    links between the "cold desert" and other parts of the country.          
                                                                             
    Meanwhile, a fresh cloudburst in Kargil area on Saturday has cut off     
    many villages.                                                           
                                                                             
    The IAF tried to airdrop essential , including tents and clothing, in    
    the villages affected by the cloudburst as roads were badly damaged,     
    Tashi Tsetan, deputy director with the development wing of the local     
    administration, said.                                                    
                                                                             
    The air force has been ferrying medicines, relief material and doctors   
    here using IL-76 and AN-32 aircraft, and has been flying out bodies of   
    the victims to various places as the highways remained cut-off.          
                                                                             
    With death and destruction all around, the miraculous survival of a      
    three-year-old girl brought cheers to the ITBP personnel slugging it out 
    in the tough conditions.                                                 
                                                                             
    Shreejal, daughter of ITBP Deputy Commandant (Engineering) Raj Kumar,    
    who was separated from her parents in the flash floods, was found alive  
    neck deep in slush in one of the building in the battalion campus,       
    though her face had several injuries.                                    
                                                                             
    "Though my men had started the relief and rescue operation within half   
    an hour after the cloudburst, everyone was praying for Kumar's family.   
    As soon as the news spread that they had been found, the morale went     
    up," ITBP DIG [deputy inspector-general] P.K. Dhasmana said.             
                                                                             
    The campus of the 24th Battalion of the force, once a neatly-decked area 
    housing officers, parks and playgrounds, is now covered with boulders    
    and slush.                                                               
                                                                             
    The officers, along with their families, had managed to climb atop their 
    houses and escape the nature's wrath.                                    
                                                                             
    Sources said nearly 400, including 26 army personnel, were still missing 
    in the devastating cloudburst that has done considerable damage to the   
    military establishment in this remote region.                            
                                                                             
    The army said most of the missing personnel are feared to have been      
    buried under 20 to 25 ft of slush, while a few could even have been      
    washed away into areas under Pakistan's control.                         
                                                                             
    "The cloudburst has done a lot of damage to civilian as well as the      
    military establishment," GOC of 14 Corps Lieutenant Gen S.K. Singh said  
    here.                                                                    
                                                                             
    He said small culverts and bridges used for going to many forward        
    locations have been destroyed, and it will take quite some time before   
    these can be rebuilt.                                                    
                                                                             
    The army said it was hopeful of reopening the two national highways by   
    the end of this week.                                                    
                                                                             
    "Our priority is to restore connectivity on the two national highways    
    for which we have put in all our resources," Singh said.                 
                                                                             
    Singh said seven bridges are needed on the Zijia access and four on the  
    Rohtang access. Two bridges near Leh were opened today.                  
                                                                             
    Army's efforts to open the highway were hit earlier after heavy rains    
    yesterday washed away fresh portions. Singh said the cloudburst has set  
    back the process of winter stocking by about 15 days.                    
                                                                             
    With the memory of the disaster firmly etched in their minds, the locals 
    are reluctant to stay in makeshift hospitals set up by relief agencies   
    in the night and feel safer in higher reaches.                           
                                                                             
    Some villagers who are undergoing treatment at these hospitals stay      
    there during the day, but as evening approaches they remove intravenous  
    drips of their relatives and take them to higher reaches despite         
    requests by paramedics not to do so.                                     
                                                                             
    "The psychological impact of these floods is too much on these locals.   
    Despite best of our efforts, they are not getting convinced to stay in   
    the relief camps during night. They prefer higher hills to spend the     
    night. They also take their near and dear ones who are under treatment   
    at these hospitals," a medic with Jammu and Kashmir Police said.         
                                                                             
    Source: PTI news agency, New Delhi, in English 1654gmt 09 Aug 10         
                                                                             
    BBC Mon SA1 SAsPol nj                                                    

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2010
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>867105</id>
    <title>BBC Monitoring Alert - INDIA
</title>
    <description>    Twenty-three foreigners among 166 killed in Indian Kashmir floods        
                                                                             
    Text of report by Indian news agency PTI                                 
                                                                             
    Leh, 10 August: Three French nationals, an Italian and a Spaniard were   
    among 23 foreigners killed in cloudburst and flash floods that           
    devastated Leh last Friday [6 August], even as 73 injured people,        
    including security personnel, were Tuesday flown out of the region by    
    IAF [Indian Air Force] for medical help.                                 
                                                                             
    The toll in the tragedy rose to 166, with 400 people still missing,      
    official sources said.                                                   
                                                                             
    Three French citizens - [names omitted], an Italian identified as [name  
    omitted] and [name omitted] from Spain have been declared dead, they     
    said.                                                                    
                                                                             
    Sixteen of those killed are from Nepal, namely Nema Zangmo, Tsering      
    Neklal, Bakta Bahadur, Kama Lama, Ajay Raina, Khunchok Gelak, Lakpa      
    Gyalmo, Shekhar, Mahurdin Ansari, Manee Patel, Ramesh Patel, Narai Badur 
    Sume, Santosh Kumar, Nel Badur, Saryanareyan Chaudhary and Anil          
    Chaudhary, they said.                                                    
                                                                             
    Two other victims were Tibetans. They were identified as Pasang Tsering  
    and Tsering Yangkyid, the sources said.                                  
                                                                             
    Meanwhile, 73 people, including 49 security personnel, who were injured  
    at different places following cloudburst, were brought to Udhampur from  
    Leh for treatment in an IL-76 transport aircraft this morning, group     
    captain of Indian Air Force P.M. Vithalkar said.                         
                                                                             
    A special control room has been set up in the Ministry of External       
    Affairs to streamline the collation and dissemination of information on  
    foreigners affected by the tragedy.                                      
                                                                             
    "Information about Indians and foreign nationals who have sadly lost     
    their lives, have been injured or are stranded in different parts is     
    being collated by agencies involved in rescue and relief effort," the    
    ministry said.                                                           
                                                                             
    Even as a massive relief and rescue operation continued, the state       
    Revenue Department has begun a painstaking exercise to gauge the extent  
    of economic damage suffered by the district.                             
                                                                             
    "What we feel is that 40 per cent of our infrastructure, which is        
    irrigation canals, link roads and bridges, have been destroyed. Another  
    40 per cent have been partially damaged. May be 20 per cent is intact,"  
    Ladakh Autonomous Hill Development Council Chairman Chering Dorjay told  
    PTI.                                                                     
                                                                             
    He said the cloudburst has severely affected agriculture. "We now have a 
    standing crop but all the irrigation canals have been washed away,       
    especially the headworks. In some places, the nallahs [drains] have      
    become deeper by as much as 20 ft," he said.                             
                                                                             
    Even at a rough estimate, it will take a minimum of two years for the    
    disaster-hit district to be rebuilt and this would involve thousands of  
    tonnes of cement, steel, bitumen and other construction materials, he    
    said.                                                                    
                                                                             
    The Leh calamity figured in the Lok Sabha [lower house of parliament]    
    today with two Congress members from Jammu and Kashmir                   
    [Indian-administered Kashmir] requesting the centre [federal government] 
    to ensure all support in rehabilitation of the affected.                 
                                                                             
    "Calamity has struck Ladakh. Thousands are still missing," Lal Singh     
    said during Zero Hour. Noting that the Centre had announced an ex-gratia 
    relief of 1 lakh [one lakh equals 100,000] rupees to each of those       
    killed, he said it was not enough.                                       
                                                                             
    His party colleague from the state, Madan Lal Sharma, also raised the    
    issue, saying thousands of people have been left homeless by the         
    tragedy.                                                                 
                                                                             
    BJP [Bharatiya Janata Party] leader L.K. Advani asked his party MPs      
    [Members of Parliament] to donate 10,000 rupees from their salary for    
    providing relief to the victims and suggested that the MPLAD [Member of  
    Parliament Local Area Development] funds be diverted for rehabilitation  
    and rebuilding of the region.                                            
                                                                             
    "In the BJP Parliamentary Party meeting today, Advani suggested that all 
    MPs should give 10,000 rupees from their salary to Sangh Parivar's Sewa  
    Bharti, which is active in providing relief to the people affected by    
    flash floods in Leh," deputy leader of BJP in Rajya Sabha [upper house   
    of parliament], S.S. Ahluwalia said in New Delhi. The money will be      
    collected by the party and sent to Sewa Bharti soon, he said. "We will   
    take up this issue through Lok Sabha speaker and Rajya Sabha chairman in 
    both houses of parliament for diverting funds of members for Leh flash   
    floods," Ahluwalia said.                                                 
                                                                             
    Several labourers from Chhattisgarh [central state], who were working in 
    the region, are reported missing, while seven were found dead following  
    the floods, the party said. Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Raman Singh has  
    promised all help to bring the survivors back to their home state and    
    provide relief to the families of the dead.                              
                                                                             
    Source: PTI news agency, New Delhi, in English 1452gmt 10 Aug 10         
                                                                             
    BBC Mon SA1 SAPol EU1 EuroPol nj                                         

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2010
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>868821</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   yes, marc called them a mob - and that seems accurate

   On 10/24/11 1:33 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     Good point. 
     In terrorist terms they are more like grassroots people than AQ core. 
     From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
     Reply-To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2011 13:11:05 -0500
     To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
     Somehow we have to stop referring to 'anonymous' as a monolith.  They
     are a bunch of different people that essentially get together in an
     online-form of a mob to carry out some action. I'm not sure how to do
     this in writing consistently.  But let's start with shit like 'people
     joining Anonymous chatrooms and claiming to be part of the movement' or
     something like that. 

     Comments in green below.  This is coming together nicely. 

     On 10/24/11 11:19 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of
       these in the US?
        What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
       I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
       whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
       because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
       revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of
       understanding of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is
       expendable to cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of
       coercion.

       Anonymous does not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
       cartels.  mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of
       el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication
       as a tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable
       intelligence, the government will use it against the cartels. That's a
       physical threat, if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify
       that Anonymous can not directly effect physical security. Any impact
       to the cartel in revealing information will be from actions of rival
       cartels or the GoM. They may release information on a given politician
       being linked to the cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the
       politician will feel an impact (Just because Anonymous says there is a
       link, doesn't make it true). It would be up to others to take action. 
       I think the way you have it worded in the above sentence is good. 
       Follow with a sentence explaining the rest of it, because readers will
       have the same question Karen did.  Something like 'Rather, the threat
       to cartels would come in what information anonymous could expose that
       is useful to their enemies'

       Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online
       activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to
       conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't know how
       much, but we do know they will have some points of operational
       vulnerability I have heard of cartels doing business online, but don't
       have specific examples which could be used in assessing their
       vulnerability online.

       by "no consequences" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired,
       arrested or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I
       should say, there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out
       politicians as colluding.
       On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
         c: 512.750.7234
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
         Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
         possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
         Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by people using
         the banner of Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on
         cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
         find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual
         being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico
         and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual
         posting flyers ['critical of cartels'?] in Veracruz as part of the
         Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation. [this is
         good and will be enough information to go with, though you'll need a
         quick explanation of what 'operation paperstorm' is.  Adding
         something in the explaining the flyers will work]

         Link: themeData
         Anonymous, a decentralized hacker collective  famous for distributed
         denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government and corporate
         websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
         statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
         depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on
         October 10? With the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold
         threats towards the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as
         releasing identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
         journalists who collude with criminal cartels do they specify
         whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of these in the US?
          What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
         group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
         face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
         was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
         their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
         potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
         presents a unique threat towards TCOs [If TCO= transnational
         criminal organization, it's not really unique.  Many such
         organizations do their crimes online, and have been hacked in
         response--like the nigerian princess scams. I think you should just
         say it's a unique threat to DTOs] . We know of cartels lashing out
         at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels
         dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

         What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
              o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
         threat to Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a
         gun to the head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for
         the using publication as a tool to force government action. If you
         reveal actionable intelligence, the government will use it against
         the cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
              o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
         media
              o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out
         at cartels

         While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
         threat, if it had access to certain types of information:

                 -The threat is in the information they can expose that may
     be of use to any cartel enemies.  That could be to the government or
     other cartels or even local citizens (the last one may be a stretch, but
     i could imagine someone discrediting cartel members in the eyes of the
     public).

              o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims tocut possess
         identifiable information on cartel members 
              o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
         cartels [cut this part here, and make the point at the end of this
         section/paragraph]
              o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
         identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in
         the realm of possibilities for
                     Anonymous
                     o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
         illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels
         are known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We
         don't know how much, but we do know they will have some points of
         operational vulnerability

        -They claim to have information on those that collude with cartels 
     (use the stuff you have above].  Releasing such information could hurt
     cartels' support networks, but most of these people are also easily
     replaceable. 
                 -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents
     have access to, and doubt they have such information that provides any
     sort of existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 

         Most Anonymous hackers are likely far removed from the ultra-violent
         world of drug trafficking in Mexico, but it's quite possible that
         some of its members in this campaign are in Mexico and opposed to
         the violence [or something like that.  my limited understanding is
         there are still activist crusader-types in Mexico, yeah?  it seems
         very possible those with a bit of time or computer skills could have
         joined up with anonymous] . As a result, their understanding of
         cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous members in other
         countries may act with confidence when sitting in front of a
         computer, but this may blind them to any possible retribution. They
         may not even know the impact of any online assault of cartels.  [the
         part below and above is written rather normatively.  We need to take
         that out.  just state the facts]
              o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
         will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
         individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
         drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
         halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not have
         a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
         Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &amp;
         Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
         consequences from this. by "no consequences" what exactly do you
         mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and that happens all
         the time.
              o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
         are willing to go protect their operations.
                 o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                 o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
         community before, coercing computer science majors into working for
         them.
                 o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
         discovering hackers within Mexico.
         need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply
         publishing tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the
         same camp as the bloggers  [yes, i think it needs to be clear that
         their damage will be similar to what bloggers or wikileaks can
         do--limited.  But maybe more a danger to themselves, since they are
         no longer challenging governments, but criminal organizations]

          

         On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

           Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
           there are several issues to address and fix here.

           These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
           discussion:

                o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but
           we can't gloss over that fact
                o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference
           between stealing bank records from government computers and
           overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
           information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
           kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
           talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
           politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
           going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
           killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
           operational details, because they acted as informants, because
           they exposed links with officials or because they somehow sullied
           the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of information is
           damaging to the cartels themselves?
                o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
           realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure
           of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for
           the technical ability by a very small number of its members to
           infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal information.
           Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on a network that
           is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
           information be found? Government databases? Once we know what kind
           of information is accessible, we can also know more about the
           consequences of dissemination.
                o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
           back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings
           done by people who may not understand the difference between an
           anon hacker and a blogger.

           On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

             wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

             -------- Original Message --------

              Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                 Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                 From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
             Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                   To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

             you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a
             lot more work

             You need to lay out:

             a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section
             is unclear
             b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
             therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
             c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
             d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone
             who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

             I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
             insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
             levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
             the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
             is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
             business online, in a protected fashion.

             Karen Hooper
             Latin America Analyst
             o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
             c: 512.750.7234
             STRATFOR
             www.stratfor.com
             On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

             On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             Link: themeData

             Trigger

             Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
             Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed
             out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
             denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released
             depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a screen?
             exactly when?.  With the most recent video release, Anonymous
             makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels. Threats such as
             releasing identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
             politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels.
             The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped
             member otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
             between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
             unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly different
             operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
             Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
             believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
             not believe for a second that the cartels have no experience
             with hackers.

              

             In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned
             as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their
             demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned
             right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening
             to hit back. Provide enough details so we understand who this
             guy is and why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous'
             claims of possessing revealing information on cartel members and
             operations are true, cartels will likely respond with violence
             against individuals revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you
             mean Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public
             disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force the
             GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i
             don't understand what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten
             Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
             against Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will
             continue their threats against any individual using online media
             WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about
             bloggers here. against the cartels.

              

             The Battle Space

             Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
             realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
             of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
             geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
             exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
             are physical people tho live in the real world. They have names
             and addresses - although most of them are likely outside of MX.)
              Anonymous' power base consists of their technical capabilities
             in hacking. Any information connected to the Internet is
             vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of
             individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population
             could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
             has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big
             company with a website that brings in revenue, but it does not
             really matter if you don't run operations on the web. Los Z
             don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are also far less
             dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

             Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
             base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
             believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
             through the internet. This gives an opening for people
             disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
             dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll.
             Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
             themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of serious IT
             capability. 

             The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been
             from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

             The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
             Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
             maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
             commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
             and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight.
             There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar
             capacity.  Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue
             and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
             experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels are
             always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence.
             While battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law
             Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in
             the flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted media
             outlets. Murdering journalists and online bloggers in order to
             cover details of their operations. ok... but that's kind of a
             red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus on the
             possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
             have no cyber presence.

              

             Anonymous' Weapons

             Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
             criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
             combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
             disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
             anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites in
             Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
             admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
             guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
             campaign by technically elite individuals can not be overlooked
             should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream media
             outlets and social media blogs as such a threat to their
             operations, that they have continued to target journalists and
             bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was placed
             with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the body of a
             blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce cartels
             on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not
             really addressing the subheading

             As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
             risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest
             Anonymous is capable of possessing information they threaten to
             release. By releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
             Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
             individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
             information is limited by what is available via the Internet.
             Government computers connected to the Internet should always be
             considered a possibility of an attack. However, as with the
             compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer
             networks, information available to Mexico's intelligence
             collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to
             say here? This isn't clear at all

              

             Cartel's Defense

                         A counter response to the video? by the cartels has
             yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped
             member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the
             threat posed by hackers so... how has there not been a counter
             response? also this undermines your statements above about how
             Anonymous is soley internet based, and underlines the
             vulnerabilities of associated members. How did they find teh
             Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well give you
             some indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
             Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the
             cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed
             for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies
             dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and
             we have good intel indicating that) they are working on
             disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can
             operate in any region of the world. Personal information
             including locations is only available if a hacker chooses to
             divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
             figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous. Cartels
             are only capable of dealing with their online enemy, if they can
             physically reach out to them. Or start employing hackers of
             their own under their payroll? Stranger things have happened,
             Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                         Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
             Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
             help of computer science majors through personal threats has
             been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported where?. 
             Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence and drug
             trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of technical
             experts to help combat any threat by computer hackers.  While
             identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it
             is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
             operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies such
             as the FBi, with far more technical experience and resources
             than cartels, struggle to find hackers through investigations.
             A) How do you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they
             kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are
             equally difficult to track down

                         In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
             likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with,
             brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
             operations within Mexico "still"? why would we assume they
             wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
             communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
             members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
             likely continue to be used to scare online media into submission
             i'm not really seeing the online media-international hacking
             group connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
             inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
             encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of cartel
             violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to be
             seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of
             the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff
             and simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can
             inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 20:39:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>868970</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   Brown

   On 10/24/11 11:50 AM, Morgan Kauffman wrote:

     If you're going to cover the vigilante/robin-hood aspect, I found this
     in today's sweeps: 
     http://arstechnica.com/business/news/2011/10/anonymous-takes-down-darknet-child-porn-site-on-tor-network.ars?utm_source=rss&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=rss
     and 
     http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2395175,00.asp#fbid=KvMufY_Mq3a

     They've got a sub-group that tries to hunt down child-abuse sites and
     users - last week they published a list of 1500 names of visitors to one
     site, in addition to performing a couple of DDoS attacks to the server.

     On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

       Link: themeData

       I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to have a
       broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no nothing, or
       almost nothing about what this group is and the threat it poses.
       Reviewing their list of attacks
       (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most of the
       cases, they are the "good" guys, sort of a Robin Hood of the internet
       . The interesting thing when it comes to their interactions with the
       cartels is the dubious role they play: at the same time they can be
       fighting crime by revealing cartel members/supporters, but they can
       also put lives in risk.

       However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by Anonymous.
       The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can conduct a cyber
       attack under "Anonymous" is worrisome.
       (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

       If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government websites,
       or if I am just a internet user, I would like to know more about these
       guys. Who they are? What are they interested in? How they operate? Who
       they have targeted so far? How can I defend myself from them? In what
       countries are they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use
       them to achieve any particular goal?

       On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

         nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else can
         build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they pose to
         innocent people caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing
         on journalists or taxi drivers they show little understanding of the
         situation.  This has long term implications in not just Mexico. 
         They don't consider the consequences of their actions and they act
         without understanding the environment.  It was the same when they
         released information on the Sony Playstation network to protest
         Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

         On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

           Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
           possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
           Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by Anonymous,
           threatens revealing personal information on cartels as well as
           states a member had been kidnapped. I could not find any sources
           outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being kidnapped.
           According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous
           Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting flyers in
           Veracruz as part of the Operation Paperstorm protest, although
           that is speculation.

           Link: themeData
           Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
           denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed
           out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
           Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked
           individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the
           most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
           the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing
           identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists
           who collude with criminal cartels. No mention of banks that accept
           their laundered money? That is when they would be a threat to
           their bottom line. They can always buy cabbies, cops, politicos
           and journos but tracing banks.  The hacker group demanded Los
           Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
           consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
           was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
           their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
           potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and
           hackers, presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels
           lashing out at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting
           on cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

           What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
           threat to Mexican cartels.
                o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
           media
                o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash
           out at cartels

           While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
           threat
                o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
           identifiable information on cartel members
                o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire
           on cartels
                o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
           communications, identifiable information on cartels members have
           to be considered in the realm of possibilities for
                       Anonymous
                       o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
           illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

           Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
           ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result,
           their understanding of cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous
           may act with confidence when sitting in front of a computer, but
           this may blind them to any possible retribution. They may not even
           know the impact of any online assault of cartels.
                o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
           will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
           individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
           drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
           halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not
           have a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
           Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &amp;
           Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
           consequences from this.
                o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
           are willing to go protect their operations.
                   o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                   o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
           community before, coercing computer science majors into working
           for them.
                   o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
           discovering hackers within Mexico.

            

           On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

             Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
             there are several issues to address and fix here.

             These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
             discussion:

                  o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine
             but we can't gloss over that fact
                  o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference
             between stealing bank records from government computers and
             overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                  o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
             information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
             kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
             talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
             politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
             going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
             killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
             operational details, because they acted as informants, because
             they exposed links with officials or because they somehow
             sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
             information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                  o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
             realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a
             measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity
             except for the technical ability by a very small number of its
             members to infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
             information. Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on
             a network that is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)?
             Where else could information be found? Government databases?
             Once we know what kind of information is accessible, we can also
             know more about the consequences of dissemination.
                  o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to
             trace back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of
             killings done by people who may not understand the difference
             between an anon hacker and a blogger.

             On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

               wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

               -------- Original Message --------

                Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                   Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                   From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
               Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                     To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

               you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need
               a lot more work

               You need to lay out:

               a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger
               section is unclear
               b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
               therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
               c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
               anything
               d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill
               anyone who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

               I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
               insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
               levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
               the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
               is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
               business online, in a protected fashion.

               Karen Hooper
               Latin America Analyst
               o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
               c: 512.750.7234
               STRATFOR
               www.stratfor.com
               On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

               On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

               Link: themeData

               Trigger

               Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
               Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?,
               lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
               denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
               released depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a
               screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent video release,
               Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels.
               Threats such as releasing identities of Mexican? American?
               taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who collude
               with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
               release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences.
               The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels
               and hackers, presents an unprecedented war front for the
               cartels. The vastly different operations of Anonymous and Los
               Zetas leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have
               little experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no
               experience with the cartels. I do not believe for a second
               that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                

               In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
               mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
               their demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be
               mentioned right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is
               threatening to hit back. Provide enough details so we
               understand who this guy is and why/how he was abducted. are
               not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing revealing
               information on cartel members and operations are true, cartels
               will likely respond with violence against individuals revealed
               as opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous members?.
               It also is likely that public disclosure of GOM officials who
               collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving
               the Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this
               means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
               effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against
               Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue
               their threats against any individual using online media WC....
               you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers
               here. against the cartels.

                

               The Battle Space

               Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
               realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
               of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
               geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
               exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
               are physical people tho live in the real world. They have
               names and addresses - although most of them are likely outside
               of MX.)  Anonymous' power base consists of their technical
               capabilities in hacking. Any information connected to the
               Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying
               the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's
               population could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of
               what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
               Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in
               revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't run
               operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money via
               e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on the web than
               the jihadists.)

               Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
               base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
               believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
               through the internet. This gives an opening for people
               disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
               dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience =
               troll. Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
               themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of serious IT
               capability. 

               The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has
               been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

               The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US
               and Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking
               to maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
               commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
               and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from
               insight. There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't
               have a similar capacity.  Their power base is built by large
               amounts of revenue and escalating brutal violence. Cartels
               like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing different types of
               threats. Cartels are always suffering at the hands of cartel
               on cartel violence. While battling each other, cartels still
               face arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to
               avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
               have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
               bloggers in order to cover details of their operations. ok...
               but that's kind of a red herrng for this discussion. You need
               to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't
               just assume they have no cyber presence.

                

               Anonymous' Weapons

               Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
               criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability
               to combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
               disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
               anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites
               in Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
               admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
               guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
               campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
               overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels view main
               stream media outlets and social media blogs as such a threat
               to their operations, that they have continued to target
               journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los
               Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on
               the body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
               denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive
               here, and it's not really addressing the subheading

               As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
               risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to
               suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing information they
               threaten to release. By releasing identities of individuals
               cooperating with Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life
               of those individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate
               sensitive information is limited by what is available via the
               Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
               should always be considered a possibility of an attack.
               However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the US
               governments computer networks, information available to
               Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy to acquire. 
               what are you trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

                

               Cartel's Defense

                           A counter response to the video? by the cartels
               has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a
               kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun
               addressing the threat posed by hackers so... how has there not
               been a counter response? also this undermines your statements
               above about how Anonymous is soley internet based, and
               underlines the vulnerabilities of associated members. How did
               they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that could very
               well give you some indication to the technical ability of the
               cartels . As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
               wide web , the cartels will face a number of challenges which
               rarely are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has
               whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You
               can assume (and we have good intel indicating that) they are
               working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening
               cartels, can operate in any region of the world. Personal
               information including locations is only available if a hacker
               chooses to divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy
               enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only work for
               Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
               online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or
               start employing hackers of their own under their payroll?
               Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                           Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
               Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
               help of computer science majors through personal threats has
               been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported
               where?.  Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence
               and drug trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of
               technical experts to help combat any threat by computer
               hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been
               demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable of
               identifying any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
               enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
               experience and resources than cartels, struggle to find
               hackers through investigations. A) How do you know they are
               not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm
               goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult to
               track down

                           In order to compete with an online foe, cartels
               will likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar
               with, brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
               operations within Mexico "still"? why would we assume they
               wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
               communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
               members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
               likely continue to be used to scare online media into
               submission i'm not really seeing the online
               media-international hacking group connection here.  The cruel
               manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer
               hackers have unlikely encountered before in their life.
               Whether the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence of
               Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels are able to
               seek out and capture members of the hacker group.. Or the
               Narcos could call the collective bluff and simply go on and
               shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

 --
 Sincerely,

 Marko Primorac
 Tactical Analyst
 marko.primorac@stratfor.com
 Tel: +1 512.744.4300
 Cell: +1 717.557.8480
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 18:59:47</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/868970_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>870971</id>
    <title>RE: Random Business Idea - Network Security
</title>
    <description>   I believe this is the article Marko is talking about.

    

   WikiLeaks' next target is big business, Assange says

   Andy Greenberg, Forbes.com

   Date: Wed. Dec. 1 2010 7:39 PM ET

   http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/World/20101201/forbes-assange-interview-101201/

    

   In a rare interview, Assange tells Forbes that the release of Pentagon and
   State Department documents are just the beginning. His next target: big
   business.

    

   Early next year, Julian Assange says, a major American bank will suddenly
   find itself turned inside out. Tens of thousands of its internal documents
   will be exposed on Wikileaks.org with no polite requests for executives'
   response or other forewarnings. The data dump will lay bare the finance
   firm's secrets on the Web for every customer, every competitor, every
   regulator to examine and pass judgment on.

    

   When? Which bank? What documents? Cagey as always, Assange won't say, so
   his claim is impossible to verify. But he has always followed through on
   his threats. Sitting for a rare interview in a London garden flat on a
   rainy November day, he compares what he is ready to unleash to the damning
   e-mails that poured out of the Enron trial: a comprehensive vivisection of
   corporate bad behavior. "You could call it the ecosystem of corruption,"
   he says, refusing to characterize the coming release in more detail. "But
   it's also all the regular decision making that turns a blind eye to and
   supports unethical practices: the oversight that's not done, the
   priorities of executives, how they think they're fulfilling their own
   self-interest."

    

   This is Assange: a moral ideologue, a champion of openness, a control
   freak. He pauses to think-a process that occasionally puts our
   conversation on hold for awkwardly long interludes. The slim 39-year-old
   WikiLeaks founder wears a navy suit over his 6-foot-2 frame, and his once
   shaggy white hair, recently dyed brown, has been cropped to a sandy
   patchwork of blonde and tan. He says he colors it when he's "being
   tracked."

    

   "These big-package releases. There should be a cute name for them," he
   says, then pauses again.

    

   "Megaleaks?" I suggest, trying to move things along.

    

   "Yes, that's good-megaleaks." His voice is a hoarse, Aussie-tinged
   baritone. As a teenage hacker in Melbourne its pitch helped him
   impersonate IT staff to trick companies' employees into revealing their
   passwords over the phone, and today it's deeper still after a recent bout
   of flu. "These megaleaks . . . they're an important phenomenon. And
   they're only going to increase."

    

   He'll see to that. By the time you're reading this another giant dump of
   classified U.S. documents may well be public. Assange refused to discuss
   the leak at the time FORBES went to press, but he claims it is part of a
   series that will have the greatest impact of any WikiLeaks release yet.
   Assange calls the shots: choosing the media outlets that splash his
   exposes, holding them to a strict embargo, running the leaks
   simultaneously on his site. Past megaleaks from his information insurgency
   over the last year have included 76,000 secret Afghan war documents and
   another trove of 392,000 files from the Iraq war. Those data explosions,
   the largest classified military security breaches in history, have roused
   antiwar activists and enraged the Pentagon.

    

   Admire Assange or revile him, he is the prophet of a coming age of
   involuntary transparency. Having exposed military misconduct on a grand
   scale, he is now gunning for corporate America. Does Assange have
   unpublished, damaging documents on pharmaceutical companies? Yes, he says.
   Finance? Yes, many more than the single bank scandal we've been
   discussing. Energy? Plenty, on everything from BP to an Albanian oil firm
   that he says attempted to sabotage its competitors' wells. Like
   informational IEDs, these damaging revelations can be detonated at will.

    

   Long gone are the days when Daniel Ellsberg had to photocopy thousands of
   Vietnam War documents to leak the Pentagon Papers. Modern whistleblowers,
   or employees with a grudge, can zip up their troves of incriminating
   documents on a laptop, USB stick or portable hard drive, spirit them out
   through personal e-mail accounts or online drop sites-or simply submit
   them directly to WikiLeaks.

    

   What do large companies think of the threat? If they're terrified, they're
   not saying. None would talk to us. Nor would the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
   WikiLeaks "is high profile, legally insulated and transnational," says
   former Commerce Department official James Lewis, who follows cybersecurity
   for the Center for Strategic &amp; International Studies. "That adds up to a
   reputational risk that companies didn't have to think about a year ago."

    

   Already U.S. laws wrapped into financial reform this year expand
   whistleblower incentives to offer six- and seven-digit rewards to staffers
   in any industry who report malfeasance. WikiLeaks adds another, new form
   of corporate data breach: It offers the conscience-stricken and vindictive
   alike a chance to publish documents largely unfiltered, without censors or
   personal repercussions, thanks to privacy and encryption technologies that
   make anonymity easier than ever before. WikiLeaks' technical and
   ideological example has inspired copycats from Africa to China and rallied
   transparency advocates to push for a new, legal promised land in the
   unlikely haven of Iceland. It's also fueling a race in the cybersecurity
   industry and in Washington to find technology that can plug information
   leaks once for all.

    

   Today Assange looks tired, his eyes narrowed and the skin beneath them
   puffy, as if he's unused to even England's gloomy daylight. He has no
   permanent home. "We're like a traveling production company; everyone moves
   somewhere, and we put on a production," he sighs. "We haven't had any rest
   since April." In Sweden, where many of the group's servers are based, a
   warrant has now been issued for his arrest on rape charges. He's denied
   the accusations, arguing they amount to smear tactics. He's also afraid to
   set foot in several other countries, including the U.S., fearing that
   officials will find reasons to detain him. No question that WikiLeaks
   would be in trouble if he were jailed: A spokeswoman says it has a
   "contingency plan," but without Assange there is no public face.
   Meanwhile, his resources have been drained by defections from his
   organization; some old friends and associates have taken issue with his
   autocratic style.

    

   None of which has stopped him from picking new fights. The promised
   release of bank documents would be the largest assault by WikiLeaks on the
   corporate sector, and Assange says the business community should expect
   plenty of sequels. In early October the site shut down its
   document-submission system; Assange says it was receiving more information
   than it could find resources to publish, thousands of additions a day at
   some points. The total is more gigabytes of data than he can count. "Our
   pipeline of leaks has been increasing exponentially as our profile rises,"
   he says, drawing a curve upward in the air with one hand.

    

   If even a fraction of his claims are borne out, he's already sitting on a
   crypt of data any three-letter spy agency would kill for. The world's most
   vocal transparency advocate is now one of the world's biggest keepers of
   secrets. And about half of those revelations, says Assange, relate to the
   private sector.

    

   Over the last four years he has been so busy embarrassing various
   governments, from Washington to the corrupt Kenyan regime of Daniel arap
   Moi, that many forget the corporate scandals already on WikiLeaks' trophy
   wall. In January 2008 the site posted documents alleging that the Swiss
   bank Julius Baer hid clients' profits from even the Swiss government,
   concealing them in what seemed to be shell companies in the Cayman
   Islands. The bank filed a lawsuit against WikiLeaks for publishing data
   stolen from its clients. Baer later dropped the suit-but managed to stir
   up embarrassing publicity for itself. The next year WikiLeaks published
   documents from a pharma trade group implying that its lobbyists were
   receiving confidential documents from and exerting influence over a World
   Health Organization project to fund drug research in the developing world.
   The resulting attention helped crater the WHO project.

    

   In September 2009 commodities giant Trafigura filed an injunction that
   prevented British media from mentioning a damaging internal report. The
   memo showed the company had dumped tons of toxic waste in the Ivory Coast,
   chemicals that allegedly sickened 100,000 locals. But it couldn't stop
   WikiLeaks from publishing the information. Trafigura eventually paid more
   than $200 million in settlements.

    

   How can an American corporation respond to a Wiki attack? Lawsuits won't
   work: WikiLeaks is legally shielded in the U.S. by its role as a mere
   conduit for documents. Even if a company somehow won a judgment against
   WikiLeaks, that wouldn't shut it down. Assange spreads the site's assets
   over many countries. "There's no single target to drop a bomb on," says
   Eric Goldman, a law professor at Santa Clara University.

    

   The best protection? With a dash of irony Icelandic WikiLeaks staffer
   Kristinn Hrafnsson suggests that companies change their ways to avoid
   targeting. "They should resist the temptation to enter into corruption,"
   he says. Don Tapscott, coauthor of The Naked Corporation (Free Press,
   2003), agrees. His simplistic conclusion: "Open your own kimono. You're
   going to be naked. So you have to dig deep, look at your whole operation,
   make sure that integrity is part of your bones."

    

   Most corporations, instead, are turning to cybersecurity to shield their
   private parts. Despite dozens of calls to companies in tech, energy and
   finance, none wanted to talk about antileaking strategies. But a Forrester
   Research study found that about a quarter of companies in the U.S., the
   U.K., France, Germany and Canada were implementing leak-focused security
   software in 2010, and another third are considering that option. A study
   last year by the Ponemon Institute, a privacy-research consultancy in
   Traverse City, Mich., found that 60% of employees admit to taking
   sensitive data before they leave a company.

    

   *****

    

   Some of the more intriguing antileak work is being done by Uncle Sam. In
   an unmarked government building on the edge of a residential Arlington,
   Va. neighborhood, a cybersecurity researcher named Peiter Zatko shows just
   how easily leaks can occur. He lays out a blow-by-blow history of one
   insider data theft: The suspect searched broadly over the network to find
   anything related to critical infrastructure, then returned to manually
   probe a few interesting files. "Then he walked away with enough
   information to shut down big chunks of the telephone systems in the United
   States," Zatko says matter-of-factly.

    

   Who was that shadowy data smuggler? "That was me," says the 39-year-old
   researcher, giggling bashfully.

    

   Zatko is not your typical Department of Defense employee. Even in his new
   Beltway digs, he prefers to be called "Mudge," the hacker handle he used
   during decades of exploring the dark corners of the Internet. Frank Heidt,
   a former security staffer at MCI and several military contractors, says
   that when he first read Zatko's exploit research in mid-1990s hacker
   zines, he thought that Mudge must be the pseudonym of a group. "He was so
   prolific that I thought he couldn't be one person," Heidt says. In 1998,
   as part of the L0pht hacker think tank, Zatko testified in a congressional
   hearing that he and his friends could shut down the Internet in 30
   minutes.

    

   Since March Zatko has also been a lead cybersecurity researcher at the
   Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the mad-scientist wing of the
   Pentagon devoted to projects that occasionally result in breakthroughs
   like the Internet and GPS. Zatko's new pet project may be equally
   ambitious: He aims to rid the world of digital leaks.

    

   The telephone system theft case that Zatko dissected in a Darpa conference
   room was a test, demonstrating that anyone with access to a network could
   steal data without detection, despite the system's expensive security
   software. Now his challenge is to fix the problem. Since August he has led
   a project known as the Cyber Insider Threat, or Cinder. Like most Darpa
   initiatives it's an X-Prize-style open invitation for ideas; recipients
   typically get tens of millions of dollars in government funding.
   Thirty-five entrants, mostly tiny companies, have already publicly signed
   up, many more in secret. "We're looking to everyone from academia to
   startups to large government contractors," says Zatko. "We're not looking
   for evolutionary improvement. We want to pull the rug out from the problem
   altogether."

    

   It's a well-worn carpet. Since late 2007 every major security software
   vendor, from McAfee to Symantec to Trend Micro, has spent hundreds of
   millions of dollars to acquire companies in the so-called Data-Leak
   Prevention (DLP) industry-software designed to locate and tag sensitive
   information, and then guard against its escape at the edges of a firm's
   network.

    

   The problem: DLP doesn't work. Data is simply created too quickly, and
   moved around too often, for a mere filter to catch it, says Richard
   Stiennon, an analyst for security consultancy IT-Harvest, in Birmingham,
   Mich. "For DLP to function, all the stars have to align," he says. "This
   is a huge problem that can't be stopped with a single layer of
   infrastructure."

    

   More fashionable now is network forensics: the process of constantly
   collecting every fingerprint on a company's servers to trace an intruder
   or leaker after the fact-and, perhaps, deter the next one. That's a bit
   like fighting the next war according to the last one. Still, revenue at
   NetWitness, a prominent Herndon, Va. startup in that budding field, has
   leaped from $250,000 to $40 million since 2006. While the software
   generally gathers data and makes it easily available to queries, it
   doesn't pinpoint culprits. "There's nothing in current technology that can
   do this in an automated fashion," says Shawn Carpenter, principal
   forensics analyst at NetWitness. "You need a Columbo."

    

   Or, better yet, a robo-Columbo. Darpa's Zatko has been working on a system
   of automatically identifying what he calls "malicious missions": insider
   activity aimed at stealing data from inside a company's firewall, whether
   it's a Dell PC remotely hijacked by a Chinese cyberspy or Bradley
   Mannings, the U.S. soldier accused of leaking classified documents about
   combat in Afghanistan to WikiLeaks. Zatko's system would monitor networks
   in real-time for just the sort of data-stealing behavior he would perform
   himself: steps like scouring large areas of the network for a certain
   file, dumping piles of data to external storage hardware or sending
   encrypted files out over the Internet. No single episode would signal a
   leak; instead, the software would link acts in a probabilistic chain,
   triggering an alert only if a string of events points to purposeful data
   theft.

    

   Some of that leaky behavior isn't what a casual observer might expect.
   Consider the cyber footprints left by Robert Hanssen, a former FBI agent
   serving a life sentence in a Colorado supermax prison for selling
   intelligence to the Soviets over two decades. Every few days Hanssen would
   stop his normal activities and make a single query to a server across the
   network, a pattern he repeated for years. That server, Zatko says, held
   the counterintelligence database. Hanssen was searching for himself, a
   routine check to see if he'd finally been found out.

    

   "You put all these things together into the different components of the
   mission," says Zatko. "I'm looking for these new rhythms, new tells, new
   interrelations and requirements."

    

   Cinder wasn't created to combat WikiLeaks-in fact, it predates WikiLeaks'
   biggest military scandals. But Zatko has nonetheless found himself
   squarely in opposition to Assange's mission-a strange face-off, given that
   the two men once traveled in the same hacker circles, during the years
   when Assange went by the hacker handle Mendax (a Latin reference to the
   "splendidly deceptive" in the poet Horace's Odes) and reveled in accessing
   corporate and government systems without authorization. Neither will
   reveal much about their past encounters, but Assange says that they "were
   in the same milieu." Asked about Assange, Zatko says only, "I have very
   pleasant memories of those old days."

    

   WikiLeaks' founder, in fact, seems to have trouble accepting that Mudge is
   working for the other side. "He's a clever guy, and he's also highly
   ethical," says Assange. "I suspect he would have concerns about creating a
   system to conceal genuine abuses." He dismisses Cinder as just another
   system of digital censorship. And those systems, he says, will always
   fail, just as China's Great Firewall can't stop well-informed and
   determined dissident Internet users. "Censorship might work for the
   average person but not for highly motivated people," Assange says. "And
   our people are highly motivated."

    

   *****

    

   Shutting down WikiLeaks wouldn't stop the growing movement of transparency
   agitators. They now have a nation-size ally: Iceland. Since WikiLeaks
   scored a major scoop unearthing the corrupt loans that helped destroy that
   country's largest bank, the volcanic island is fast on its way to becoming
   the conduit for a global flood of leaks.

    

   It began when Kaupthing Bank collapsed in October 2008-a calamitous chain
   reaction that has strapped Iceland with $128 billion in debts, around
   $400,000 per capita. Ten months later Bogi Agustsson, a Walter
   Cronkite-ish anchor for Icelandic national broadcaster RUV, appeared on
   the evening news and explained that a legal injunction had prevented the
   station from airing a prepared expose on Kaupthing. Viewers who wanted to
   see the material, he suggested, should visit a site called Wikileaks.org.

    

   Those who took Agustsson's advice found a summary of Kaupthing's loan book
   posted on the site, detailing more than $6 billion funneled from
   Kaupthing's coffers to its own proprietors and companies they owned, often
   with little or no collateral; $900 million went to Olafur Olafsson, a
   major investor in Kaupthing who, on his birthday, flew in Elton John from
   England, along with a grand piano, for a one-hour concert. "The banks had
   been eaten from the inside out," says Kristinn Hrafnsson, a former
   investigative reporter in Reykjavik who now works with WikiLeaks.

    

   A government investigation is still going on; no criminal charges have
   been filed. But WikiLeaks became a household name in Iceland. In December
   2009 Assange and Daniel Domscheit-Berg, a German who then worked with
   WikiLeaks, were invited to keynote a free-speech conference in Reykjavik.
   Their talk echoed an idea from American cyberlibertarian John Perry
   Barlow, calling for a "Switzerland of bits." Iceland, with its independent
   spirit and recent taste of explosive whistle-blowing, they suggested,
   could become the digital doppelga:nger of a tax haven: a safe harbor for
   transparency, where it's open season on government and business
   secrets-and leakers are protected by law.

    

   The idea might have gone nowhere if not for Birgitta Jonsdottir. Assange's
   message captivated the 43-year-old poet and self-styled
   "realist-anarchist." She wasn't just another idealistic protester with a
   goth wardrobe and hipster haircut. In the chaotic political environment
   that followed the national financial crisis, Jonsdottir had been elected
   to Iceland's parliament, the Althingi, in April 2009.

    

   Working with the country's transparency activists, she pulled together the
   Icelandic Modern Media Initiative, or Immi. The initiative would bring to
   Iceland all the source-protection, freedom of information and transparency
   laws from around the world and even set up a Nobel-style international
   award for work in the field of free expression. Jonsdottir pushed through
   a unanimous resolution to create a series of bills to implement Immi. They
   would also make Iceland the most friendly legal base for whistleblowers on
   Earth.

    

   Velkomin, as Icelanders would say, to Leakistan.

    

   "The more that companies resist, the more information will get out about
   them," says Jonsdottir when we meet in Reykjavik's Hressingarskalinn cafe,
   around the corner from the parliament building. "They can't hide anymore.
   The war is over. They lost." In Jonsdottir's vision Iceland will attract
   both mainstream media and WikiLeaks-like organizations to move their data
   to Iceland, enjoying legal protection, just as another firm might
   incorporate in a tax-sheltering island in the Caribbean.

    

   She may be getting a bit ahead of herself. Immi has yet to become law,
   though it has backing from powerful figures, including both Iceland's
   minister of justice and the head of its progressive party. Even if it
   does, Immi likely wouldn't offer much legal protection to organizations
   whose assets and staff aren't physically in the country; they could still
   be sued anywhere else in the world, given that their digital and print
   publications could appear globally. Immi could also face resistance from
   the U.S. and the EU-particularly when it comes to military matters. As
   Marc Thiessen, a conservative pundit, wrote on the blog of the American
   Enterprise Institute in August, "Immi calls into question Iceland's
   seriousness as a NATO ally, and Iceland needs to realize there will be
   consequences for its actions." There could be a backlash for exposing
   corporate secrets, too. Alastair Mullis, a professor of law at East Anglia
   University in Britain, says, "It's possible that Iceland will become the
   defamation capital of the world."

    

   Jonsdottir and fellow Immi creator Smari McCarthy are pushing ahead
   anyway. Immi, they say, doesn't fashion new laws; it cherry-picks existing
   statutes from around the world (source shields from Sweden, libel
   protection from New York State, protected communications with journalists
   from Belgium, among them). "We're basing our legislation on laws that have
   already withstood attacks," says Jonsdottir. Defamation and other concerns
   like child pornography and copyright violations, she argues, would still
   be illegal in Iceland and wouldn't be sheltered.

    

   Nor is the idea to protect WikiLeaks itself, Jonsdottir points out. The
   site doesn't need help: Its data and submissions process are carefully
   encrypted, and its infrastructure is spread over enough
   countries-including some servers in a bombproof, underground bunker in
   Sweden-that taking it offline is already nearly impossible.

   Instead Immi would foster a new wave of media organizations and
   whistleblower outlets that don't rely on WikiLeaks' technical savvy or
   resources. Already a handful of smaller, leak-focused conduits-regional
   sites like Africa-focused SaharaReporters or Thaileaks.info-have published
   damning data. Immi's McCarthy says he's been approached by media
   organizations from Rwanda to Chechnya. German WikiLeaks staffer Daniel
   Domscheit-Berg, disgruntled with Assange's laser focus on infrequent
   megaleaks, has left the organization along with several others to create
   his own spinoff. "In the end there must be a thousand WikiLeaks," he told
   Der Spiegel in September.

    

   Iceland certainly has the infrastructure for a lot of informational
   mischief. Half an hour outside Reykjavik, on a landscape that resembles
   Mars covered in snow, the Thor Data Center is preparing for an influx of
   bytes. By 2011 it hopes to have thousands of servers in its
   aluminum-plant-turned-server-farm, powered by ultracheap geothermal energy
   and cooled by free arctic air. Iceland's biggest Web host, ironically
   named 1984 Web Hosting, is excited about the boost Immi could give its
   business. "I created this company to prevent thought control," says Mordur
   Ingolfsson, its chief executive. "In my humble opinion, Immi is the most
   important thing to happen to this godforsaken island since the Sagas were
   written." (That's 600-plus years.)

    

   Jonsdottir agrees: "WikiLeaks was an important icebreaker. It was the tip.
   Immi is the rest of the wedge, and it will open up everything." (She is
   less thrilled to learn that Assange speaks of Immi as his personal
   creation.)I ask Assange how he expects companies to cope with a world
   where hundreds of WikiLeak-alikes may soon exist. His three-part
   prescription is earnest-if a bit patronizing: "Do things to encourage
   leaks from dishonest competitors. Be as open and honest as possible. Treat
   your employees well."

   He also wants to clear up a misunderstanding. Despite his revolutionary
   reputation, he's not antibusiness. He bristles at the media's focus on his
   teenage years as a computer hacker who broke into dozens of systems, from
   the Department of Defense to Nortel, and was eventually convicted on 25
   charges of computer fraud and fined thousands of dollars.

    

   Instead, he prefers to think of himself as an entrepreneur. He tells the
   story of a free-speech-focused Internet service provider he cofounded in
   1993, known as Suburbia. It was, to hear him tell it, the blueprint for
   WikiLeaks-in one instance, when the Church of Scientology demanded to know
   who had posted antichurch information on one site, he refused to help.
   ("He has titanium balls," says David Gerard, that site's creator.) "I saw
   it early on, without realizing it: potentiating people to reveal their
   information, creating a conduit," Assange says. "Without having any other
   robust publisher in the market, people came to us."

    

   Leaks merely lubricate the free market, he says, settling into the couch
   and clearly enjoying giving me a lecture on economics. (Later, as a
   45-minute interview pushes into two hours, he ignores his handler, who
   keeps urging him to leave for his next appointment.) He cites the example
   of the Chinese Sanlu Group, whose milk powder contained toxic melamine in
   2008. While poisoning its customers, Sanlu also gained an advantage over
   competitors and might have forced more of them to taint their products,
   too, or go bankrupt-if Sanlu hadn't been exposed in the Chinese press. "In
   the struggle between open and honest companies and dishonest and closed
   companies, we're creating a tremendous reputational tax on the unethical
   companies," he says.

    

   Of course, Assange's tax isn't as equitable as it sounds. He alone decides
   where to apply the penalty, choosing the targets and when to expose them
   with a touch of theatrical grandstanding-and with zero accountability. For
   better-and worse-WikiLeaks has become the Julian Assange Show. As a
   photographer begins shooting, Assange wonders aloud if the coat he's
   wearing might have been produced by a labor-exploiting company. A few
   minutes later he jokes about his "messiah complex."

    

   Like any true believer, Assange sees his work in simple terms. Markets, he
   reminds me, can't exist without information. Business will come to
   appreciate what he offers. And if that requires a few painful scandals in
   the process?

    

   Assange doesn't miss a beat. "Pain for the guilty.

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Wednesday, December 08, 2010 19:39
   To: analysts
   Subject: Random Business Idea - Network Security

    

   I'm sure this has been thought of before at STRATFOR so excuse the
   redundancy. I was reading a solid Forbes article on Assange and it said
   that a large number of deep pocket corporations were looking into
   leak-focused network security after these Wikileak episodes.

   I was wondering if it was possible for us to get some of that
   "leak-focused" gravy train. This is an obvious fear sale, so that's a good
   thing. And we have something to offer that the IT security companies
   don't, mainly our focus on counter-intelligence and surveillance that Fred
   and Stick know better than anyone on the planet.

   We do a lot of good work with all the personal/executive security analysis
   as well. Could we develop some ideas and procedures on the idea of
   "leak-focused" network security that focuses on preventing one's own
   employees from leaking sensitive information.

   The point here is that I am sure there are certain procedures and
   precautions that companies should employ that go beyond installing network
   security network to deal with potential leaks. In fact, Im not so sure
   this is an IT problem that requires an IT solution.

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-09 07:11:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/870971_re-random-business-idea-network-security-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kevin.stech@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>871999</id>
    <title>[Fwd: TrapWire on 100 Percent Chance of WMD Attack]]
</title>
    <description>TrapWire is in place at every HVT in NYC, DC, Vegas, London, Ottawa and
LA. 


-------- Original Message --------
Subject: 	TrapWire on 100 Percent Chance of WMD Attack]
Date: 	Tue, 15 Feb 2011 07:29:47 -0600
From: 	Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
To: 	'TACTICAL' &lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;



&gt;From TrapWire --


By the way -- the bad guys figured out long ago how paranoid we are
about anything that smacks of WMD…even if it's a deception.

Case in point: Dihren Barot, the AQ surveillant who now sits in UK
prison, actually stated in his surveillance reports related to the
Prudential Building op in NJ that the attack team should paint the gas
and oxygen canisters with the yellow and black radioactive symbol. He
opined (correctly I believe) that when first responders found bits and
pieces of the yellow/black metal, they'd freak out and seal the entire
area…and no one would ever believe the USG's subsequent explanation that
it wasn’t really radioactive. The bad guys only need to be right once…..


(By the way, we brief Barot and many other real-world case studies in
our Surveillance Detection training related to TrapWire. Always a bit
hit with the LE crowds).
</description>
    <date>2011-02-15 14:33:17</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/871999_-fwd-trapwire-on-100-percent-chance-of-wmd-attack-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>872882</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   if anonymous outs taxi cab drivers working with Zeta, they are dead.  that
   is both simple and devastating.  If they release email accounts of GOM
   folks, and there are cartel members in that address book that would be
   devastating.  I think our definitions of devastating are different.  I
   agree the ability of these folks to bring down governments is minimal, but
   I am willing to bet the next deep throat scenario will come via a hacker
   and information they are able to steal. 

   On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already

     2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  The question is if the attack is high
     priority enough.  Many people assume there is no attribution because
     there is no response, but I don't think that is accurate. 
     has NSA told you otherwise?  i am unclear, are you saying the entire
     darknet is mapped, or could be mapped, only it isn't because the NSA
     doesn't care or doens't share? 
     3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new laptop and
     start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack involves much more than
     a recently bought laptop.  In the same way there is an attack cycle for
     a terrorist attack or crime, there is one for a cyber attack.  A very
     simple attack may be as hard to trace as a nearly-random mugging in the
     dark in a neighborhood with much more serious crime and no CCTV cameras.
     so simple=low damage, and complicated = more damage?  if you hacked
     Calderon's blackberry and found out who his contacts were, and one of
     them was Chapo's sister, it would be simple and devastating.  A more
     complicated attack, however, involves pre-operational surveillance,
     developing exploits, developing programs and code, gaining access,
     exploiting that, and carrying out an attack.  And that takes time,
     giving more time for your exposure. Look at everything that went into
     Stuxnet as a great example, that couldn't be done with one person with a
     new laptop.  All of this activity provides activity and evidence which
     helps for attribution.  Of course it is always possible to develop an
     attack, just like any other operation, that even the best law
     enforcement and national intelligence agencies have trouble or cannot
     attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that it's very difficult for
     someone to successfully use Anonymous as a cover and have NSA, GHQ, MID,
     Aman, etc, be unable to attribute it.  They may not choose to cover it
     if it is small scale crime, however. 
     On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored cyber
       warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing that, since
       you can conduct a cyber attack without associating with a hacker group
       and still deny / cover actions on behalf of the State. An individual
       attacking US computer assets from China, may be working by himself or
       on behalf of the Chinese government, but unless the US has other intel
       on the Chinese government's cyber warfare activities in order to
       corroborate there is little capability to distinguish.

       It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
       operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets from
       SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual responsible for
       hacking State run servers. In the past, I have turned to SIGINT
       organizations for collections on computer related material, but this
       was due to the US being behind in cyber warfare, and not knowing where
       to assign responsibility. However, this has changed dramatically in
       the last couple of years.

       Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As an
       extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go to a
       Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the online
       activity to something revealing (accessing personal email accounts,
       tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop, etc..), and
       begin hacking government email accounts then never use the laptop
       again. Unless LEA could get an accurate description of my appearance
       from Starbuck's patrons or possible security cameras, I can not think
       of way to identify me.

       Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to these
       enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied to specific
       computer-related activities because of the difficulty in identifying
       individuals.

       I think the most likely way for a "Anonymous cover" to be blown, would
       be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a common
       participant in "Anonymous" activities, was working for a State?
       Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that State agent
       organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter buddies, what signs
       could a LEA look for to distinguish?

       On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a bit)

         1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything actually
         harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't, but i'm very
         doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first real case where
         they could do some minor damage--to individual people, not not to an
         organization or anything that would come as a serious or strategic
         threat. 

         2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is actually
         pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as a cover, but
         that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could probably still be
         attributed if important enough to those agencies.  The recent attack
         on Sony actually brings this issue up- Whoever is calling themselves
         anonymous denies they did it.  And keep in mind how much they have
         claimed an publicized attacks in the past, even before they were
         carried out.  The attack on the Playstation Network was more
         sophisticated than anonymous' usual work (though potentially
         coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that distracted Sony's IT
         security).  But whoever did it, again, no real damage came of it. 
         Congress is holding hearings over data security, but this is no
         different than the OC groups stealing your credit card information. 
         LE will go after them, have some success, but the threat is not that
         large. 
         On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

           Link: themeData

           I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to have a
           broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no nothing, or
           almost nothing about what this group is and the threat it poses.
           Reviewing their list of attacks
           (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most of
           the cases, they are the "good" guys, sort of a Robin Hood of the
           internet . The interesting thing when it comes to their
           interactions with the cartels is the dubious role they play: at
           the same time they can be fighting crime by revealing cartel
           members/supporters, but they can also put lives in risk.

           However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
           Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can
           conduct a cyber attack under "Anonymous" is worrisome.
           (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

           If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
           websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to know
           more about these guys. Who they are? What are they interested in?
           How they operate? Who they have targeted so far? How can I defend
           myself from them? In what countries are they active? Should I
           worry about them at all? Can I use them to achieve any particular
           goal?

           On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

             nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else
             can build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they
             pose to innocent people caught up in the terror that is Mexico. 
             By focusing on journalists or taxi drivers they show little
             understanding of the situation.  This has long term implications
             in not just Mexico.  They don't consider the consequences of
             their actions and they act without understanding the
             environment.  It was the same when they released information on
             the Sony Playstation network to protest Sony.  They hurt
             innocent people to prove a point. 

             On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

               Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
               possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
               Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by
               Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on cartels
               as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
               find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the
               individual being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites
               (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it
               may be an individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the
               Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

               Link: themeData
               Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
               distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government
               websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
               statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a
               video depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug
               cartels on October 10? With the most recent video release,
               Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels in
               Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers,
               police, politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal
               cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow
               kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. In the
               Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
               day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands
               of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The potential of
               conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
               presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels
               lashing out at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any
               reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers
               before. 

               What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                    o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
               threat to Mexican cartels.
                    o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit
               online media
                    o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to
               lash out at cartels

               While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose
               a threat
                    o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
               identifiable information on cartel members
                    o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could
               acquire on cartels
                    o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
               communications, identifiable information on cartels members
               have to be considered in the realm of possibilities for
                           Anonymous
                           o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to
               reveal illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

               Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
               ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
               result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
               limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting in
               front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
               retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online
               assault of cartels.
                    o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
               journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some
               of these individuals are forced to collude with cartels.    
                         Taxi drivers are often victims of extortion or
               coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the identity of these
               individuals will not have a significant impact on cartel    
                             operations. Politicans have been accused of
               working with cartels (Guerrero &amp; Veracruz' governor) before,
               however there has yet to be any consequences from this.
                    o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent
               cartels are willing to go protect their operations.
                       o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                       o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
               community before, coercing computer science majors into
               working for them.
                       o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
               discovering hackers within Mexico.

                

               On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                 Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea
                 but there are several issues to address and fix here.

                 These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
                 discussion:

                      o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's
                 fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                      o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a
                 difference between stealing bank records from government
                 computers and overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                      o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
                 information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of
                 info is kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You
                 seem to be talking about identities, whose? If anything it's
                 dirty cops, politicians and businessmen who need to worry
                 about what anon is going to be saying. Think about why the
                 bloggers and media were killed in previous instances. Was it
                 because they revealed operational details, because they
                 acted as informants, because they exposed links with
                 officials or because they somehow sullied the cartel's
                 reputation? In short, what kind of information is damaging
                 to the cartels themselves?
                      o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon
                 can realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes
                 a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence
                 capacity except for the technical ability by a very small
                 number of its members to infiltrate certain networks and
                 databases and steal information. Now what kind of
                 information would a cartel keep on a network that is
                 connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else
                 could information be found? Government databases? Once we
                 know what kind of information is accessible, we can also
                 know more about the consequences of dissemination.
                      o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to
                 trace back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of
                 killings done by people who may not understand the
                 difference between an anon hacker and a blogger.

                 On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                   wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                   -------- Original Message --------

                    Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                       Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                       From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
                   Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                         To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

                   you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to
                   need a lot more work

                   You need to lay out:

                   a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger
                   section is unclear
                   b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is,
                   and therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
                   c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
                   anything
                   d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill
                   anyone who breaches their systems or exposes their
                   connections

                   I also just want to point out that we have reasonable
                   reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some
                   significant levels of sophistication in their online
                   presence, to include the use of cyber currencies and
                   significant IT capacity. There is no reason to assume that
                   Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
                   protected fashion.

                   Karen Hooper
                   Latin America Analyst
                   o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                   c: 512.750.7234
                   STRATFOR
                   www.stratfor.com
                   On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                   On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                   Link: themeData

                   Trigger

                   Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
                   Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?,
                   lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
                   statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including
                   a video released depicting...? a person talking? a voice?
                   words on a screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent
                   video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                   criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of
                   Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
                   journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker
                   group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member
                   otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
                   between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
                   unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly
                   different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a
                   conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have little
                   experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no
                   experience with the cartels. I do not believe for a second
                   that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                    

                   In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                   mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                   reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped member
                   this should be mentioned right up front. Cartels have a
                   member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back. Provide
                   enough details so we understand who this guy is and
                   why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims
                   of possessing revealing information on cartel members and
                   operations are true, cartels will likely respond with
                   violence against individuals revealed as opposing cartel
                   members huh? you mean Anonymous members?. It also is
                   likely that public disclosure of GOM officials who collude
                   with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving the
                   Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this
                   means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
                   effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against
                   Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will
                   continue their threats against any individual using online
                   media WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking
                   about bloggers here. against the cartels.

                    

                   The Battle Space

                   Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two
                   separate realities from each other. Anonymous operates
                   solely in sphere of the computer networks. Anonymous does
                   not experience geographical boundaries. All personalities
                   within Anonymous, exist solely in cyber space.  (That is
                   not entirely true. They are physical people tho live in
                   the real world. They have names and addresses - although
                   most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power
                   base consists of their technical capabilities in hacking.
                   Any information connected to the Internet is vulnerable to
                   exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of individual
                   cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population could
                   be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
                   has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or
                   a big company with a website that brings in revenue, but
                   it does not really matter if you don't run operations on
                   the web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They
                   are also far less dependent on the web than the
                   jihadists.)

                   Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's
                   power base consists of the perceived anonymity that its
                   members believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by
                   operating through the internet. This gives an opening for
                   people disgruntled by anything and everything to practice
                   general dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity +
                   audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web of
                   people who identify themselves as "anonymous" have any
                   sort of serious IT capability. 

                   The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has
                   been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

                   The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in
                   US and Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always
                   looking to maximize profits and expand. But they are
                   bricks and mortar commerce. Yes..... but they use the
                   internet to launder money and issue commands. We know that
                   Sinaloa does that from insight. There is no reason to
                   assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity. 
                   Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue and
                   escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
                   experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels
                   are always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel
                   violence. While battling each other, cartels still face
                   arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to
                   avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money,
                   cartels have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists
                   and online bloggers in order to cover details of their
                   operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this
                   discussion. You need to focus on the possible
                   vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
                   have no cyber presence.

                    

                   Anonymous' Weapons

                   Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions
                   against criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous'
                   only ability to combat cartels lay in information
                   operations, mainly disseminating sensitive information on
                   cartels and propagating anti-cartel statements via social
                   media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean so far and
                   that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
                   cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance of
                   a targeted information operations campaign by technically
                   elite individuals can not be overlooked should not be
                   underestimated. Cartels view main stream media outlets and
                   social media blogs as such a threat to their operations,
                   that they have continued to target journalists and
                   bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was
                   placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the
                   body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
                   denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive
                   here, and it's not really addressing the subheading

                   As stated earlier, any information connected to the
                   internet risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample
                   reason to suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing
                   information they threaten to release. By releasing
                   identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
                   cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
                   individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
                   information is limited by what is available via the
                   Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
                   should always be considered a possibility of an attack.
                   However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the US
                   governments computer networks, information available to
                   Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy to
                   acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This isn't
                   clear at all

                    

                   Cartel's Defense

                               A counter response to the video? by the
                   cartels has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous'
                   claims of a kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los
                   Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by hackers
                   so... how has there not been a counter response? also this
                   undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is
                   soley internet based, and underlines the vulnerabilities
                   of associated members. How did they find teh Anonymous
                   member? The answer to that could very well give you some
                   indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
                   Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web
                   , the cartels will face a number of challenges which
                   rarely are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG
                   has whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in
                   cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good intel
                   indicating that) they are working on disrupting the
                   cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in any
                   region of the world. Personal information including
                   locations is only available if a hacker chooses to divulge
                   it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
                   figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous.
                   Cartels are only capable of dealing with their online
                   enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
                   employing hackers of their own under their payroll?
                   Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                               Cartels have been known to coerce the services
                   of Mexican citizens with a technical background.
                   Recruiting the help of computer science majors through
                   personal threats has been reported in the past where? What
                   cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels operate in the
                   world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they will
                   likely need the assistance of technical experts to help
                   combat any threat by computer hackers.  While identifying
                   bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is
                   unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
                   operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies
                   such as the FBi, with far more technical experience and
                   resources than cartels, struggle to find hackers through
                   investigations. A) How do you know they are not in Mexico?
                   (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume
                   that not all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                               In order to compete with an online foe,
                   cartels will likely continue counter tactics they are most
                   familiar with, brute force. Cartels are still capable of
                   their HUMINT operations within Mexico "still"? why would
                   we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged
                   connections to hacker communities will likely be targeted
                   and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and
                   public display of violence will likely continue to be used
                   to scare online media into submission i'm not really
                   seeing the online media-international hacking group
                   connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
                   inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
                   encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
                   cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will
                   remain to be seen until cartels are able to seek out and
                   capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could
                   call the collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off
                   any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
</description>
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    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
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  <doc>
    <id>873251</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else can build
   off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they pose to innocent
   people caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing on journalists
   or taxi drivers they show little understanding of the situation.  This has
   long term implications in not just Mexico.  They don't consider the
   consequences of their actions and they act without understanding the
   environment.  It was the same when they released information on the Sony
   Playstation network to protest Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a
   point. 

   On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing possible
     cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat Anonymous can pose
     to cartels. The video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing
     personal information on cartels as well as states a member had been
     kidnapped. I could not find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of
     the individual being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites
     (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an
     individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the Operation
     Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

     Link: themeData
     Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
     denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed out at
     drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
     criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked individual
     addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the most recent
     video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels
     in Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers, police,
     politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The
     hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member
     otherwise face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming
     November 5th was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
     reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met.
     The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
     presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out at
     online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing
     with any headaches from hackers before. 

     What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
          o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat to
     Mexican cartels.
          o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online media
          o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out at
     cartels

     While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a threat
          o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess identifiable
     information on cartel members
          o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
     cartels
          o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
     identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in the
     realm of possibilities for
                 Anonymous
                 o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
     illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

     Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the ultra-violent
     world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result, their understanding of
     cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when
     sitting in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
     retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online assault of
     cartels.
          o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will
     cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are
     forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are often
     victims of extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the
     identity of these individuals will not have a significant impact on
     cartel                   operations. Politicans have been accused of
     working with cartels (Guerrero &amp; Veracruz' governor) before, however
     there has yet to be any consequences from this.
          o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are
     willing to go protect their operations.
             o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
             o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science community
     before, coercing computer science majors into working for them.
             o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
     discovering hackers within Mexico.

      

     On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

       Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there
       are several issues to address and fix here.

       These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
       discussion:

            o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but we
       can't gloss over that fact
            o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference between
       stealing bank records from government computers and overloading
       www.loszetas.com main page.
            o     There's no thought out process of what sort of information
       could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is kept online and
       accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
       identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops, politicians and
       businessmen who need to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
       Think about why the bloggers and media were killed in previous
       instances. Was it because they revealed operational details, because
       they acted as informants, because they exposed links with officials or
       because they somehow sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what
       kind of information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
            o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
       realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of
       damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the
       technical ability by a very small number of its members to infiltrate
       certain networks and databases and steal information. Now what kind of
       information would a cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
       internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could information be found?
       Government databases? Once we know what kind of information is
       accessible, we can also know more about the consequences of
       dissemination.
            o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
       back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done by
       people who may not understand the difference between an anon hacker
       and a blogger.

       On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

         wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

         -------- Original Message --------

          Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
             Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
             From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
         Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
               To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

         you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a lot
         more work

         You need to lay out:

         a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section is
         unclear
         b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
         therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
         c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
         d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone who
         breaches their systems or exposes their connections

         I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
         insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels
         of sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of
         cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason to
         assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
         protected fashion.

         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
         c: 512.750.7234
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

         On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

         Link: themeData

         Trigger

         Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
         Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed out
         at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
         Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released depicting...?
         a person talking? a voice? words on a screen? exactly when?.  With
         the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
         the criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of
         Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
         journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker group
         demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
         consequences. The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal
         cartels and hackers, presents an unprecedented war front for the
         cartels. The vastly different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas
         leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have little
         experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no experience
         with the cartels. I do not believe for a second that the cartels
         have no experience with hackers.

          

         In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
         day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of
         releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up
         front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back.
         Provide enough details so we understand who this guy is and why/how
         he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing
         revealing information on cartel members and operations are true,
         cartels will likely respond with violence against individuals
         revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous
         members?. It also is likely that public disclosure of GOM officials
         who collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving the
         Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this means. You
         mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel
         will be able to retaliate against Anonymous remains unanswered .
         However, cartels will continue their threats against any individual
         using online media WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not
         talking about bloggers here. against the cartels.

          

         The Battle Space

         Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
         realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of
         the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical
         boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in
         cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They are physical people
         tho live in the real world. They have names and addresses - although
         most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power base
         consists of their technical capabilities in hacking. Any information
         connected to the Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers.
         (Identifying the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst of
         Mexico's population could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of
         what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
         Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in revenue,
         but it does not really matter if you don't run operations on the
         web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are also far
         less dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

         Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base
         consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe
         themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the
         internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
         and everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme
         goes, anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web
         of people who identify themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of
         serious IT capability. 

         The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been from
         targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

         The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
         Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
         maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
         commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money and
         issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight. There
         is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity.
         Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue and escalating
         brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing
         different types of threats. Cartels are always suffering at the
         hands of cartel on cartel violence. While battling each other,
         cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels
         wish to avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
         have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
         bloggers in order to cover details of their operations. ok... but
         that's kind of a red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus
         on the possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume
         they have no cyber presence.

          

         Anonymous' Weapons

         Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
         criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
         combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating
         sensitive information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel
         statements via social media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean
         so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
         cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance of a
         targeted information operations campaign by technically elite
         individuals can not be overlooked should not be underestimated.
         Cartels view main stream media outlets and social media blogs as
         such a threat to their operations, that they have continued to
         target journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los
         Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the
         body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce
         cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not
         really addressing the subheading

         As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks
         disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest Anonymous
         is capable of possessing information they threaten to release. By
         releasing identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
         cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those individuals.
         Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive information is limited
         by what is available via the Internet. Government computers
         connected to the Internet should always be considered a possibility
         of an attack. However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the
         US governments computer networks, information available to Mexico's
         intelligence collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you
         trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

          

         Cartel's Defense

                     A counter response to the video? by the cartels has yet
         to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped member by
         Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed
         by hackers so... how has there not been a counter response? also
         this undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is soley
         internet based, and underlines the vulnerabilities of associated
         members. How did they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that
         could very well give you some indication to the technical ability of
         the cartels . As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
         wide web , the cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely
         are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole
         agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume
         (and we have good intel indicating that) they are working on
         disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in
         any region of the world. Personal information including locations is
         only available if a hacker chooses to divulge it or if the subject
         of the attack is savvy enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only
         work for Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
         online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
         employing hackers of their own under their payroll? Stranger things
         have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                     Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
         Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help of
         computer science majors through personal threats has been reported
         in the past where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels
         operate in the world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they
         will likely need the assistance of technical experts to help combat
         any threat by computer hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside
         of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable
         of identifying any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
         enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
         experience and resources than cartels, struggle to find hackers
         through investigations. A) How do you know they are not in Mexico?
         (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not
         all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                     In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
         likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute
         force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within
         Mexico "still"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals
         with alleged connections to hacker communities will likely be
         targeted and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and
         public display of violence will likely continue to be used to scare
         online media into submission i'm not really seeing the online
         media-international hacking group connection here.  The cruel
         manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer hackers
         have unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
         cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to
         be seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of
         the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff and
         simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 17:22:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/873251_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>874103</id>
    <title>Re: [latam] Falklands Monitoring/Repping Guidance
</title>
    <description>   I believe they have had a sub rotation in the region since 82

   Nate Hughes wrote:

     We want to watch the Ocean Guardian rig and any Argentinian attempt to
     interfere or intimidate operations. Any Argentine naval or air activity
     in the vicinity of the Falklands right now should at the very least be
     noted, if not repped. Any UK reinforcements being deployed or arriving
     on station in the Falklands should be noted and repped unless they are
     simply rotational (one destroyer or detachment of fighters replacing
     another, for example.

     The heart of this is watching for actual developments and physical
     deployments. There will be no shortage of rhetoric flying out of Buenos
     Aires on this. But it is a keen awareness of what is actually happening
     that will help us sift through the rhetoric.

     UK assets on station:
     -the guided missile destroyer HMS York (D98)
     -the offshore patrol vessel HMS Clyde (P-284)
     -the Royal Fleet Auxiliary tanker Wave Ruler (A-390)
     -four Typhoon air superiority fighters

     You probably won't see it, but keep an eye out for any indication that
     there is a British sub on station.

     Probably want to dig and see if we can find a Falkland Islands paper.
     --
     Nathan Hughes
     Director of Military Analysis
     STRATFOR
     nathan.hughes@stratfor.com

 --
 Alex Posey
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 alex.posey@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-02-22 16:11:32</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 22:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/874103_re-latam-falklands-monitoring-repping-guidance-.html</permalink>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>874331</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   I disagree that Anonymous doesn't matter, but I agree the point of
   Tristan's piece is what makes this interesting.  innocent people could
   die, and that sucks.

   On 10/25/11 9:57 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     No, I didn't say that. 

     Sometimes we write about things--the most obvious and comparable example
     being Wikileaks-- that don't matter and explaining why they don't
     matter.  Another example being some of the grassroots terrorists who
     have been picked up in the US,  say Mohamad Osman Mohamad (sp?) for
     example.  He didn't matter, but we can provide a very good and cogent
     explanation of the threats he did and did not offer that few others do
     (or maybe no one else).

     But I don't think we have the expertise to truly deal with Anonymous and
     I don't care to give them more press for not doing much.  Tristan's
     piece on the other hand gets at a new and developing issue in what they
     are trying to do.  It's an anomaly i think that is worth covering.  It
     is probably the first time we will see violence as a result of their
     activities. 

     On 10/25/11 9:35 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

       So, until Anonymous doesn't become a national threat we shouldn't
       write about it?

       On 10/24/11 8:17 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         There's enough information on what's behind the Aurora attacks to
         respond and shut them down. 

         Change everything I said about SIGINT to CNO combined with
         all-source analysis and maybe human investigations.  Same point
         applies. With the low-level shit, it's usually not investigated.

         As far as I'm concerned an attack that matters is something
         seriously affects a country's capabilities relative to others.  (in
         this, intelligence can seriously affect those abilities, as it
         allows for them to be countered or become less advtantageous,
         relatively)
          

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: "Tristan Reed" &lt;tristan.reed@stratfor.com&gt;
         To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
         Sent: Monday, October 24, 2011 7:33:59 PM
         Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels

         As far as Aurora, I haven't followed it closely. Did they ever
         identify the attackers or number of attackers? I thought the target
         set was the only thing that led people to believe the Chinese
         government was responsible.

         2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
         responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating
         cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case
         HUMINT is just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT
         capabilities does not indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers.
         NSA may have there own department for tracking hackers but it does
         not make it SIGINT.

         Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

         Wikipedia provides an indepth explanation on SIGINT . But in short,
         SIGINT is the capability in exploiting signals provided by
         communication devices, and what can be obtained by exploiting the
         signals. Combining computer network operations and SIGINT is
         innaccurate, because while SIGINT may be used with other
         intelligence disciplines in order to identify a hacker, it is not
         necessary and is no more related than any other intel discipline.
         SIGINT could help you identify a computer devices (not the operator)
         emitting a signal (wifi), and cryptanalysis, which is also separate
         from SIGINT but often used in conjunction, could help in providing
         methods to decrypt messages over a network, but SIGINT wouldn't
         obtain those messages.

         In order to exploit computer network operations, the operators
         involved are specifically trained in computer science disciplines
         and technologies tailored specifically for computer activity.

         NSA also is the primary agency for cryptanalysis. Because of
         technological demands of SIGINT and cryptanalysis, NSA has enormous
         resources in R&amp;D, so I can see why the USG would move some CNO to
         NSA. But their SIGINT capabilities are not indicators of CNO
         capabilities.

         Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary
         labor for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are
         discussing operations on the scale of causing physical damage to
         extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of a cyber
         attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not mattered. 
         You chose the most prolific example of a cyber attack (which the
         whole operation consisted mainly outside of the cyber attack
         itself). Anything that falls short of this doesn't matter? Define
         what matters. None of anonymous' attacks have physically damaged
         secret Iranian nuclear facilities, but I think you are downplaying
         too much the significance of exposing corporate secrets, halting
         businesses' revenues, and embarrassing State actors by defacing
         their websites.

         On 10/24/11 5:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           On 10/24/11 5:07 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

               1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already The USG
               arrested 10 Russian spies last year, are you willing to say
               foreign intel is not capable of conducting espionage
               undetected? No, of course not.  But I also would not argue
               that the SVR is so good to be immune to detection, as you are
               arguing with hackers.  I'm saying they are more detectable
               than you think.  There is no such thing as truly anonymous. 
               Everythign leaves a trail.  Will that trail in every instance
               lead to a single individual? no.  but it can lead to a place,
               an organization, and often, an individual. 

               2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
               responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to
               investigating cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to
               corroborate, in this case HUMINT is just as significant as
               SIGINT. A country's SIGINT capabilities does not indicate its
               capabilities in tracking hackers. NSA may have there own
               department for tracking hackers but it does not make it
               SIGINT.

               Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

               The question is if the attack is high priority enough.  Many
               people assume there is no attribution because there is no
               response, but I don't think that is accurate.  Many people say
               this, because no attribution is one reason for no response. 
               Yes, they do, and if they think that is the primary reason for
               lack of response, then I think they are wrong. 

               3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new
               laptop and start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack
               involves much more than a recently bought laptop.  In the same
               way there is an attack cycle for a terrorist attack or crime,
               there is one for a cyber attack.  A very simple attack may be
               as hard to trace as a nearly-random mugging in the dark in a
               neighborhood with much more serious crime and no CCTV
               cameras.  A more complicated attack, however, involves
               pre-operational surveillance, developing exploits, developing
               programs and code, gaining access, exploiting that, and
               carrying out an attack.  Discovering exploits and writing code
               can be done entirely offline, out of sight of law enforcement
               or intel agencies. Pre-operational surveillance and gaining
               access (the point of the exploit you write offline) would fit
               in my example. The point is, if you don't link your computer
               to identifiable information, you remain anonymous. Just like
               people use certain methods to build IEDs, people use certain
               mehtods to design programs and code for cyber attacks.  Over
               time, those methods become identifiable and more and more
               attributable. This is, for example, how AURORA is linked back
               to the Chinese.  and very specific Chinese, I may add. Being
               connected or unconnected doesn't matter, eventually you have
               to use what you develop, or copy from someone, and all of
               those things can be analyzed.   And that takes time, giving
               more time for your exposure Exposure comes from network
               activity with the target, a lot of the pre-operational phase
               of an attack can occur without network activity. Look at
               everything that went into Stuxnet as a great example, that
               couldn't be done with one person with a new laptop. Writing
               the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary labor
               for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are
               discussing operations on the scale of causing physical damage
               to extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of
               a cyber attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not
               mattered.   All of this activity provides activity and
               evidence which helps for attribution.  Of course it is always
               possible to develop an attack, just like any other operation,
               that even the best law enforcement and national intelligence
               agencies have trouble or cannot attribute.  That's fine.  My
               point is that it's very difficult for someone to successfully
               use Anonymous as a cover and have NSA, GHQ, MID, Aman, etc, be
               unable to attribute it.  How do you know if NSA or GHQ is
               effective in identifying hackers?I don't, but I'm confident
               they are far better than you are allowing for.    They may not
               choose to cover it if it is small scale crime, however. 
               On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                 I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state
                 sponsored cyber warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in
                 actually doing that, since you can conduct a cyber attack
                 without associating with a hacker group and still deny /
                 cover actions on behalf of the State. An individual
                 attacking US computer assets from China, may be working by
                 himself or on behalf of the Chinese government, but unless
                 the US has other intel on the Chinese government's cyber
                 warfare activities in order to corroborate there is little
                 capability to distinguish.

                 It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
                 operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT.
                 Assets from SIGINT would not directly help you track an
                 individual responsible for hacking State run servers. In the
                 past, I have turned to SIGINT organizations for collections
                 on computer related material, but this was due to the US
                 being behind in cyber warfare, and not knowing where to
                 assign responsibility. However, this has changed
                 dramatically in the last couple of years.

                 Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous.
                 As an extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in
                 cash, go to a Starbucks with free public wifi, and never
                 attribute the online activity to something revealing
                 (accessing personal email accounts, tweeting, entering
                 personal information to the laptop, etc..), and begin
                 hacking government email accounts then never use the laptop
                 again. Unless LEA could get an accurate description of my
                 appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible security
                 cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

                 Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer
                 to these enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities
                 tied to specific computer-related activities because of the
                 difficulty in identifying individuals.

                 I think the most likely way for a "Anonymous cover" to be
                 blown, would be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But
                 what if a common participant in "Anonymous" activities, was
                 working for a State? Anonymous has denounced state
                 governments before, if that State agent organizes an attack
                 amongst his IRC / Twitter buddies, what signs could a LEA
                 look for to distinguish?

                 On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                   In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming
                   in a bit)

                   1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything
                   actually harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they
                   can't, but i'm very doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows
                   the first real case where they could do some minor
                   damage--to individual people, not not to an organization
                   or anything that would come as a serious or strategic
                   threat. 

                   2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is
                   actually pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous'
                   as a cover, but that would be pretty easy to bungle, and
                   could probably still be attributed if important enough to
                   those agencies.  The recent attack on Sony actually brings
                   this issue up- Whoever is calling themselves anonymous
                   denies they did it.  And keep in mind how much they have
                   claimed an publicized attacks in the past, even before
                   they were carried out.  The attack on the Playstation
                   Network was more sophisticated than anonymous' usual work
                   (though potentially coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS
                   attacks that distracted Sony's IT security).  But whoever
                   did it, again, no real damage came of it.  Congress is
                   holding hearings over data security, but this is no
                   different than the OC groups stealing your credit card
                   information.  LE will go after them, have some success,
                   but the threat is not that large. 
                   On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

                     I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity
                     to have a broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our
                     readers no nothing, or almost nothing about what this
                     group is and the threat it poses. Reviewing their list
                     of attacks
                     (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in
                     most of the cases, they are the "good" guys, sort of a
                     Robin Hood of the internet . The interesting thing when
                     it comes to their interactions with the cartels is the
                     dubious role they play: at the same time they can be
                     fighting crime by revealing cartel members/supporters,
                     but they can also put lives in risk.

                     However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed
                     by Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on
                     Earth, can conduct a cyber attack under "Anonymous" is
                     worrisome.
                     (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

                     If I run an organization, if I am responsible for
                     government websites, or if I am just a internet user, I
                     would like to know more about these guys. Who they are?
                     What are they interested in? How they operate? Who they
                     have targeted so far? How can I defend myself from them?
                     In what countries are they active? Should I worry about
                     them at all? Can I use them to achieve any particular
                     goal?

                     On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                       nice.  i still think the central focus, and what
                       everything else can build off of, is that Anonymous
                       doesn't know the threat they pose to innocent people
                       caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing
                       on journalists or taxi drivers they show little
                       understanding of the situation.  This has long term
                       implications in not just Mexico.  They don't consider
                       the consequences of their actions and they act without
                       understanding the environment.  It was the same when
                       they released information on the Sony Playstation
                       network to protest Sony.  They hurt innocent people to
                       prove a point. 

                       On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                         Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of
                         discussing possible cartel responses, the focus is
                         on what type of threat Anonymous can pose to
                         cartels. The video released by Anonymous, threatens
                         revealing personal information on cartels as well as
                         states a member had been kidnapped. I could not find
                         any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the
                         individual being kidnapped. According to their
                         facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous
                         Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual
                         posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the Operation
                         Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

                         Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
                         distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on
                         government websites, lashed out at drug cartels via
                         the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
                         criminal cartels, including a video depicting a
                         masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on
                         October 10? With the most recent video release,
                         Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal
                         cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing
                         identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
                         journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The
                         hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow
                         kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. In the
                         Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                         mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                         reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped
                         member are not met. The potential of conflict
                         between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
                         presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of
                         cartels lashing out at online bloggers, but I
                         haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing with
                         any headaches from hackers before. 

                         What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                              o     Anonymous would not pose a direct
                         physical security threat to Mexican cartels.
                              o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to
                         exploit online media
                              o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in
                         Mexico to lash out at cartels

                         While not certain, there is a potential for
                         Anonymous to pose a threat
                              o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to
                         possess identifiable information on cartel members
                              o     It is unknown what information Anonymous
                         could acquire on cartels
                              o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
                         communications, identifiable information on cartels
                         members have to be considered in the realm of
                         possibilities for
                                     Anonymous
                                     o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's
                         ability to reveal illicit online activity (child
                         pornography rings)

                         Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in
                         the ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in
                         Mexico. As a result, their understanding of cartel
                         activities may be limited. Anonymous may act with
                         confidence when sitting in front of a computer, but
                         this may blind them to any possible retribution.
                         They may not even know the impact of any online
                         assault of cartels.
                              o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
                         journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not
                         understand some of these individuals are forced to
                         collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are
                         often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
                         halcones. Revealing the identity of these
                         individuals will not have a significant impact on
                         cartel                   operations. Politicans have
                         been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &amp;
                         Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to
                         be any consequences from this.
                              o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the
                         extent cartels are willing to go protect their
                         operations.
                                 o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                                 o    Cartels have reached out to the
                         computer science community before, coercing computer
                         science majors into working for them.
                                 o    This provides the cartels with the
                         possibility of discovering hackers within Mexico.

                          

                         On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                           Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like
                           the idea but there are several issues to address
                           and fix here.

                           These are the bullets of my main analytical
                           concern with the discussion:

                                o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why.
                           that's fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                                o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a
                           difference between stealing bank records from
                           government computers and overloading
                           www.loszetas.com main page.
                                o     There's no thought out process of what
                           sort of information could anon have on the
                           cartels. What kind of info is kept online and
                           accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
                           talking about identities, whose? If anything it's
                           dirty cops, politicians and businessmen who need
                           to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
                           Think about why the bloggers and media were killed
                           in previous instances. Was it because they
                           revealed operational details, because they acted
                           as informants, because they exposed links with
                           officials or because they somehow sullied the
                           cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
                           information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                                o     Once you identify this info - think
                           about if anon can realistically access it and
                           disseminate it so it causes a measure of damage.
                           Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except
                           for the technical ability by a very small number
                           of its members to infiltrate certain networks and
                           databases and steal information. Now what kind of
                           information would a cartel keep on a network that
                           is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)?
                           Where else could information be found? Government
                           databases? Once we know what kind of information
                           is accessible, we can also know more about the
                           consequences of dissemination.
                                o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel?
                           Sufficient to trace back attacks? If it's not,
                           there risks to be a lot of killings done by people
                           who may not understand the difference between an
                           anon hacker and a blogger.

                           On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                             wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                             -------- Original Message --------

                              Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs     
                                       Cartels                                
                                 Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500        
                                 From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;     
                             Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;               
                                   To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;               

                             you've got some of the issues here, but this is
                             going to need a lot more work

                             You need to lay out:

                             a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your
                             trigger section is unclear
                             b) what our assessment of the online cartel
                             presence is, and therefore their vulnerabilities
                             and capabilities
                             c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high
                             security anything
                             d) how far the cartels would be willing to
                             travel to kill anyone who breaches their systems
                             or exposes their connections

                             I also just want to point out that we have
                             reasonable reliable insight that Sinaloa at the
                             very least has some significant levels of
                             sophistication in their online presence, to
                             include the use of cyber currencies and
                             significant IT capacity. There is no reason to
                             assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
                             business online, in a protected fashion.

                             Karen Hooper
                             Latin America Analyst
                             o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                             c: 512.750.7234
                             STRATFOR
                             www.stratfor.com
                             On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                             On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-10-25 17:35:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/874331_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>colby.martin@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>875135</id>
    <title>RE: Random Business Idea - Network Security
</title>
    <description>   You're right that it's really not a technological issue. There's a great
   technology for keeping your private data private already. It's called
   mandatory access control and it's been around for decades. The issue is
   more subtle since you're dealing with people leaking stuff they've been
   cleared to see. And now you're in the realm of grey matter.

    

   And it seems to me that here, as in many other things, an ounce of
   prevention is worth a pound of cure. I think that prevention can be boiled
   down to having a cohesive team with members that feel enfranchised. You
   don't leak your classified material, you leak their classified material.
   So if you want to be shady and exploit other people, fine. Just make sure
   you are on the same page with your co-conspirators and everybody gets a
   cut.

    

   If your company sells baby cribs and your employees are church-going
   soccer moms, then you might want to tone down the Dr. Evil routine.

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Thursday, December 09, 2010 00:16
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: Random Business Idea - Network Security

    

   That is the one...

   Forbes mentions how companies are now focusing on "leak-proof" network
   security. Interesting. I think that we would have a possible in there
   since that is not just about IT. But I don't really know what I am talking
   about.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Kevin Stech" &lt;kevin.stech@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, December 9, 2010 12:11:02 AM
   Subject: RE: Random Business Idea - Network Security

   I believe this is the article Marko is talking about.

    

   WikiLeaks' next target is big business, Assange says

   Andy Greenberg, Forbes.com

   Date: Wed. Dec. 1 2010 7:39 PM ET

   http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/World/20101201/forbes-assange-interview-101201/

    

   In a rare interview, Assange tells Forbes that the release of Pentagon and
   State Department documents are just the beginning. His next target: big
   business.

    

   Early next year, Julian Assange says, a major American bank will suddenly
   find itself turned inside out. Tens of thousands of its internal documents
   will be exposed on Wikileaks.org with no polite requests for executives'
   response or other forewarnings. The data dump will lay bare the finance
   firm's secrets on the Web for every customer, every competitor, every
   regulator to examine and pass judgment on.

    

   When? Which bank? What documents? Cagey as always, Assange won't say, so
   his claim is impossible to verify. But he has always followed through on
   his threats. Sitting for a rare interview in a London garden flat on a
   rainy November day, he compares what he is ready to unleash to the damning
   e-mails that poured out of the Enron trial: a comprehensive vivisection of
   corporate bad behavior. "You could call it the ecosystem of corruption,"
   he says, refusing to characterize the coming release in more detail. "But
   it's also all the regular decision making that turns a blind eye to and
   supports unethical practices: the oversight that's not done, the
   priorities of executives, how they think they're fulfilling their own
   self-interest."

    

   This is Assange: a moral ideologue, a champion of openness, a control
   freak. He pauses to think-a process that occasionally puts our
   conversation on hold for awkwardly long interludes. The slim 39-year-old
   WikiLeaks founder wears a navy suit over his 6-foot-2 frame, and his once
   shaggy white hair, recently dyed brown, has been cropped to a sandy
   patchwork of blonde and tan. He says he colors it when he's "being
   tracked."

    

   "These big-package releases. There should be a cute name for them," he
   says, then pauses again.

    

   "Megaleaks?" I suggest, trying to move things along.

    

   "Yes, that's good-megaleaks." His voice is a hoarse, Aussie-tinged
   baritone. As a teenage hacker in Melbourne its pitch helped him
   impersonate IT staff to trick companies' employees into revealing their
   passwords over the phone, and today it's deeper still after a recent bout
   of flu. "These megaleaks . . . they're an important phenomenon. And
   they're only going to increase."

    

   He'll see to that. By the time you're reading this another giant dump of
   classified U.S. documents may well be public. Assange refused to discuss
   the leak at the time FORBES went to press, but he claims it is part of a
   series that will have the greatest impact of any WikiLeaks release yet.
   Assange calls the shots: choosing the media outlets that splash his
   exposes, holding them to a strict embargo, running the leaks
   simultaneously on his site. Past megaleaks from his information insurgency
   over the last year have included 76,000 secret Afghan war documents and
   another trove of 392,000 files from the Iraq war. Those data explosions,
   the largest classified military security breaches in history, have roused
   antiwar activists and enraged the Pentagon.

    

   Admire Assange or revile him, he is the prophet of a coming age of
   involuntary transparency. Having exposed military misconduct on a grand
   scale, he is now gunning for corporate America. Does Assange have
   unpublished, damaging documents on pharmaceutical companies? Yes, he says.
   Finance? Yes, many more than the single bank scandal we've been
   discussing. Energy? Plenty, on everything from BP to an Albanian oil firm
   that he says attempted to sabotage its competitors' wells. Like
   informational IEDs, these damaging revelations can be detonated at will.

    

   Long gone are the days when Daniel Ellsberg had to photocopy thousands of
   Vietnam War documents to leak the Pentagon Papers. Modern whistleblowers,
   or employees with a grudge, can zip up their troves of incriminating
   documents on a laptop, USB stick or portable hard drive, spirit them out
   through personal e-mail accounts or online drop sites-or simply submit
   them directly to WikiLeaks.

    

   What do large companies think of the threat? If they're terrified, they're
   not saying. None would talk to us. Nor would the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
   WikiLeaks "is high profile, legally insulated and transnational," says
   former Commerce Department official James Lewis, who follows cybersecurity
   for the Center for Strategic &amp; International Studies. "That adds up to a
   reputational risk that companies didn't have to think about a year ago."

    

   Already U.S. laws wrapped into financial reform this year expand
   whistleblower incentives to offer six- and seven-digit rewards to staffers
   in any industry who report malfeasance. WikiLeaks adds another, new form
   of corporate data breach: It offers the conscience-stricken and vindictive
   alike a chance to publish documents largely unfiltered, without censors or
   personal repercussions, thanks to privacy and encryption technologies that
   make anonymity easier than ever before. WikiLeaks' technical and
   ideological example has inspired copycats from Africa to China and rallied
   transparency advocates to push for a new, legal promised land in the
   unlikely haven of Iceland. It's also fueling a race in the cybersecurity
   industry and in Washington to find technology that can plug information
   leaks once for all.

    

   Today Assange looks tired, his eyes narrowed and the skin beneath them
   puffy, as if he's unused to even England's gloomy daylight. He has no
   permanent home. "We're like a traveling production company; everyone moves
   somewhere, and we put on a production," he sighs. "We haven't had any rest
   since April." In Sweden, where many of the group's servers are based, a
   warrant has now been issued for his arrest on rape charges. He's denied
   the accusations, arguing they amount to smear tactics. He's also afraid to
   set foot in several other countries, including the U.S., fearing that
   officials will find reasons to detain him. No question that WikiLeaks
   would be in trouble if he were jailed: A spokeswoman says it has a
   "contingency plan," but without Assange there is no public face.
   Meanwhile, his resources have been drained by defections from his
   organization; some old friends and associates have taken issue with his
   autocratic style.

    

   None of which has stopped him from picking new fights. The promised
   release of bank documents would be the largest assault by WikiLeaks on the
   corporate sector, and Assange says the business community should expect
   plenty of sequels. In early October the site shut down its
   document-submission system; Assange says it was receiving more information
   than it could find resources to publish, thousands of additions a day at
   some points. The total is more gigabytes of data than he can count. "Our
   pipeline of leaks has been increasing exponentially as our profile rises,"
   he says, drawing a curve upward in the air with one hand.

    

   If even a fraction of his claims are borne out, he's already sitting on a
   crypt of data any three-letter spy agency would kill for. The world's most
   vocal transparency advocate is now one of the world's biggest keepers of
   secrets. And about half of those revelations, says Assange, relate to the
   private sector.

    

   Over the last four years he has been so busy embarrassing various
   governments, from Washington to the corrupt Kenyan regime of Daniel arap
   Moi, that many forget the corporate scandals already on WikiLeaks' trophy
   wall. In January 2008 the site posted documents alleging that the Swiss
   bank Julius Baer hid clients' profits from even the Swiss government,
   concealing them in what seemed to be shell companies in the Cayman
   Islands. The bank filed a lawsuit against WikiLeaks for publishing data
   stolen from its clients. Baer later dropped the suit-but managed to stir
   up embarrassing publicity for itself. The next year WikiLeaks published
   documents from a pharma trade group implying that its lobbyists were
   receiving confidential documents from and exerting influence over a World
   Health Organization project to fund drug research in the developing world.
   The resulting attention helped crater the WHO project.

    

   In September 2009 commodities giant Trafigura filed an injunction that
   prevented British media from mentioning a damaging internal report. The
   memo showed the company had dumped tons of toxic waste in the Ivory Coast,
   chemicals that allegedly sickened 100,000 locals. But it couldn't stop
   WikiLeaks from publishing the information. Trafigura eventually paid more
   than $200 million in settlements.

    

   How can an American corporation respond to a Wiki attack? Lawsuits won't
   work: WikiLeaks is legally shielded in the U.S. by its role as a mere
   conduit for documents. Even if a company somehow won a judgment against
   WikiLeaks, that wouldn't shut it down. Assange spreads the site's assets
   over many countries. "There's no single target to drop a bomb on," says
   Eric Goldman, a law professor at Santa Clara University.

    

   The best protection? With a dash of irony Icelandic WikiLeaks staffer
   Kristinn Hrafnsson suggests that companies change their ways to avoid
   targeting. "They should resist the temptation to enter into corruption,"
   he says. Don Tapscott, coauthor of The Naked Corporation (Free Press,
   2003), agrees. His simplistic conclusion: "Open your own kimono. You're
   going to be naked. So you have to dig deep, look at your whole operation,
   make sure that integrity is part of your bones."

    

   Most corporations, instead, are turning to cybersecurity to shield their
   private parts. Despite dozens of calls to companies in tech, energy and
   finance, none wanted to talk about antileaking strategies. But a Forrester
   Research study found that about a quarter of companies in the U.S., the
   U.K., France, Germany and Canada were implementing leak-focused security
   software in 2010, and another third are considering that option. A study
   last year by the Ponemon Institute, a privacy-research consultancy in
   Traverse City, Mich., found that 60% of employees admit to taking
   sensitive data before they leave a company.

    

   *****

    

   Some of the more intriguing antileak work is being done by Uncle Sam. In
   an unmarked government building on the edge of a residential Arlington,
   Va. neighborhood, a cybersecurity researcher named Peiter Zatko shows just
   how easily leaks can occur. He lays out a blow-by-blow history of one
   insider data theft: The suspect searched broadly over the network to find
   anything related to critical infrastructure, then returned to manually
   probe a few interesting files. "Then he walked away with enough
   information to shut down big chunks of the telephone systems in the United
   States," Zatko says matter-of-factly.

    

   Who was that shadowy data smuggler? "That was me," says the 39-year-old
   researcher, giggling bashfully.

    

   Zatko is not your typical Department of Defense employee. Even in his new
   Beltway digs, he prefers to be called "Mudge," the hacker handle he used
   during decades of exploring the dark corners of the Internet. Frank Heidt,
   a former security staffer at MCI and several military contractors, says
   that when he first read Zatko's exploit research in mid-1990s hacker
   zines, he thought that Mudge must be the pseudonym of a group. "He was so
   prolific that I thought he couldn't be one person," Heidt says. In 1998,
   as part of the L0pht hacker think tank, Zatko testified in a congressional
   hearing that he and his friends could shut down the Internet in 30
   minutes.

    

   Since March Zatko has also been a lead cybersecurity researcher at the
   Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the mad-scientist wing of the
   Pentagon devoted to projects that occasionally result in breakthroughs
   like the Internet and GPS. Zatko's new pet project may be equally
   ambitious: He aims to rid the world of digital leaks.

    

   The telephone system theft case that Zatko dissected in a Darpa conference
   room was a test, demonstrating that anyone with access to a network could
   steal data without detection, despite the system's expensive security
   software. Now his challenge is to fix the problem. Since August he has led
   a project known as the Cyber Insider Threat, or Cinder. Like most Darpa
   initiatives it's an X-Prize-style open invitation for ideas; recipients
   typically get tens of millions of dollars in government funding.
   Thirty-five entrants, mostly tiny companies, have already publicly signed
   up, many more in secret. "We're looking to everyone from academia to
   startups to large government contractors," says Zatko. "We're not looking
   for evolutionary improvement. We want to pull the rug out from the problem
   altogether."

    

   It's a well-worn carpet. Since late 2007 every major security software
   vendor, from McAfee to Symantec to Trend Micro, has spent hundreds of
   millions of dollars to acquire companies in the so-called Data-Leak
   Prevention (DLP) industry-software designed to locate and tag sensitive
   information, and then guard against its escape at the edges of a firm's
   network.

    

   The problem: DLP doesn't work. Data is simply created too quickly, and
   moved around too often, for a mere filter to catch it, says Richard
   Stiennon, an analyst for security consultancy IT-Harvest, in Birmingham,
   Mich. "For DLP to function, all the stars have to align," he says. "This
   is a huge problem that can't be stopped with a single layer of
   infrastructure."

    

   More fashionable now is network forensics: the process of constantly
   collecting every fingerprint on a company's servers to trace an intruder
   or leaker after the fact-and, perhaps, deter the next one. That's a bit
   like fighting the next war according to the last one. Still, revenue at
   NetWitness, a prominent Herndon, Va. startup in that budding field, has
   leaped from $250,000 to $40 million since 2006. While the software
   generally gathers data and makes it easily available to queries, it
   doesn't pinpoint culprits. "There's nothing in current technology that can
   do this in an automated fashion," says Shawn Carpenter, principal
   forensics analyst at NetWitness. "You need a Columbo."

    

   Or, better yet, a robo-Columbo. Darpa's Zatko has been working on a system
   of automatically identifying what he calls "malicious missions": insider
   activity aimed at stealing data from inside a company's firewall, whether
   it's a Dell PC remotely hijacked by a Chinese cyberspy or Bradley
   Mannings, the U.S. soldier accused of leaking classified documents about
   combat in Afghanistan to WikiLeaks. Zatko's system would monitor networks
   in real-time for just the sort of data-stealing behavior he would perform
   himself: steps like scouring large areas of the network for a certain
   file, dumping piles of data to external storage hardware or sending
   encrypted files out over the Internet. No single episode would signal a
   leak; instead, the software would link acts in a probabilistic chain,
   triggering an alert only if a string of events points to purposeful data
   theft.

    

   Some of that leaky behavior isn't what a casual observer might expect.
   Consider the cyber footprints left by Robert Hanssen, a former FBI agent
   serving a life sentence in a Colorado supermax prison for selling
   intelligence to the Soviets over two decades. Every few days Hanssen would
   stop his normal activities and make a single query to a server across the
   network, a pattern he repeated for years. That server, Zatko says, held
   the counterintelligence database. Hanssen was searching for himself, a
   routine check to see if he'd finally been found out.

    

   "You put all these things together into the different components of the
   mission," says Zatko. "I'm looking for these new rhythms, new tells, new
   interrelations and requirements."

    

   Cinder wasn't created to combat WikiLeaks-in fact, it predates WikiLeaks'
   biggest military scandals. But Zatko has nonetheless found himself
   squarely in opposition to Assange's mission-a strange face-off, given that
   the two men once traveled in the same hacker circles, during the years
   when Assange went by the hacker handle Mendax (a Latin reference to the
   "splendidly deceptive" in the poet Horace's Odes) and reveled in accessing
   corporate and government systems without authorization. Neither will
   reveal much about their past encounters, but Assange says that they "were
   in the same milieu." Asked about Assange, Zatko says only, "I have very
   pleasant memories of those old days."

    

   WikiLeaks' founder, in fact, seems to have trouble accepting that Mudge is
   working for the other side. "He's a clever guy, and he's also highly
   ethical," says Assange. "I suspect he would have concerns about creating a
   system to conceal genuine abuses." He dismisses Cinder as just another
   system of digital censorship. And those systems, he says, will always
   fail, just as China's Great Firewall can't stop well-informed and
   determined dissident Internet users. "Censorship might work for the
   average person but not for highly motivated people," Assange says. "And
   our people are highly motivated."

    

   *****

    

   Shutting down WikiLeaks wouldn't stop the growing movement of transparency
   agitators. They now have a nation-size ally: Iceland. Since WikiLeaks
   scored a major scoop unearthing the corrupt loans that helped destroy that
   country's largest bank, the volcanic island is fast on its way to becoming
   the conduit for a global flood of leaks.

    

   It began when Kaupthing Bank collapsed in October 2008-a calamitous chain
   reaction that has strapped Iceland with $128 billion in debts, around
   $400,000 per capita. Ten months later Bogi Agustsson, a Walter
   Cronkite-ish anchor for Icelandic national broadcaster RUV, appeared on
   the evening news and explained that a legal injunction had prevented the
   station from airing a prepared expose on Kaupthing. Viewers who wanted to
   see the material, he suggested, should visit a site called Wikileaks.org.

    

   Those who took Agustsson's advice found a summary of Kaupthing's loan book
   posted on the site, detailing more than $6 billion funneled from
   Kaupthing's coffers to its own proprietors and companies they owned, often
   with little or no collateral; $900 million went to Olafur Olafsson, a
   major investor in Kaupthing who, on his birthday, flew in Elton John from
   England, along with a grand piano, for a one-hour concert. "The banks had
   been eaten from the inside out," says Kristinn Hrafnsson, a former
   investigative reporter in Reykjavik who now works with WikiLeaks.

    

   A government investigation is still going on; no criminal charges have
   been filed. But WikiLeaks became a household name in Iceland. In December
   2009 Assange and Daniel Domscheit-Berg, a German who then worked with
   WikiLeaks, were invited to keynote a free-speech conference in Reykjavik.
   Their talk echoed an idea from American cyberlibertarian John Perry
   Barlow, calling for a "Switzerland of bits." Iceland, with its independent
   spirit and recent taste of explosive whistle-blowing, they suggested,
   could become the digital doppelga:nger of a tax haven: a safe harbor for
   transparency, where it's open season on government and business
   secrets-and leakers are protected by law.

    

   The idea might have gone nowhere if not for Birgitta Jonsdottir. Assange's
   message captivated the 43-year-old poet and self-styled
   "realist-anarchist." She wasn't just another idealistic protester with a
   goth wardrobe and hipster haircut. In the chaotic political environment
   that followed the national financial crisis, Jonsdottir had been elected
   to Iceland's parliament, the Althingi, in April 2009.

    

   Working with the country's transparency activists, she pulled together the
   Icelandic Modern Media Initiative, or Immi. The initiative would bring to
   Iceland all the source-protection, freedom of information and transparency
   laws from around the world and even set up a Nobel-style international
   award for work in the field of free expression. Jonsdottir pushed through
   a unanimous resolution to create a series of bills to implement Immi. They
   would also make Iceland the most friendly legal base for whistleblowers on
   Earth.

    

   Velkomin, as Icelanders would say, to Leakistan.

    

   "The more that companies resist, the more information will get out about
   them," says Jonsdottir when we meet in Reykjavik's Hressingarskalinn cafe,
   around the corner from the parliament building. "They can't hide anymore.
   The war is over. They lost." In Jonsdottir's vision Iceland will attract
   both mainstream media and WikiLeaks-like organizations to move their data
   to Iceland, enjoying legal protection, just as another firm might
   incorporate in a tax-sheltering island in the Caribbean.

    

   She may be getting a bit ahead of herself. Immi has yet to become law,
   though it has backing from powerful figures, including both Iceland's
   minister of justice and the head of its progressive party. Even if it
   does, Immi likely wouldn't offer much legal protection to organizations
   whose assets and staff aren't physically in the country; they could still
   be sued anywhere else in the world, given that their digital and print
   publications could appear globally. Immi could also face resistance from
   the U.S. and the EU-particularly when it comes to military matters. As
   Marc Thiessen, a conservative pundit, wrote on the blog of the American
   Enterprise Institute in August, "Immi calls into question Iceland's
   seriousness as a NATO ally, and Iceland needs to realize there will be
   consequences for its actions." There could be a backlash for exposing
   corporate secrets, too. Alastair Mullis, a professor of law at East Anglia
   University in Britain, says, "It's possible that Iceland will become the
   defamation capital of the world."

    

   Jonsdottir and fellow Immi creator Smari McCarthy are pushing ahead
   anyway. Immi, they say, doesn't fashion new laws; it cherry-picks existing
   statutes from around the world (source shields from Sweden, libel
   protection from New York State, protected communications with journalists
   from Belgium, among them). "We're basing our legislation on laws that have
   already withstood attacks," says Jonsdottir. Defamation and other concerns
   like child pornography and copyright violations, she argues, would still
   be illegal in Iceland and wouldn't be sheltered.

    

   Nor is the idea to protect WikiLeaks itself, Jonsdottir points out. The
   site doesn't need help: Its data and submissions process are carefully
   encrypted, and its infrastructure is spread over enough
   countries-including some servers in a bombproof, underground bunker in
   Sweden-that taking it offline is already nearly impossible.

   Instead Immi would foster a new wave of media organizations and
   whistleblower outlets that don't rely on WikiLeaks' technical savvy or
   resources. Already a handful of smaller, leak-focused conduits-regional
   sites like Africa-focused SaharaReporters or Thaileaks.info-have published
   damning data. Immi's McCarthy says he's been approached by media
   organizations from Rwanda to Chechnya. German WikiLeaks staffer Daniel
   Domscheit-Berg, disgruntled with Assange's laser focus on infrequent
   megaleaks, has left the organization along with several others to create
   his own spinoff. "In the end there must be a thousand WikiLeaks," he told
   Der Spiegel in September.

    

   Iceland certainly has the infrastructure for a lot of informational
   mischief. Half an hour outside Reykjavik, on a landscape that resembles
   Mars covered in snow, the Thor Data Center is preparing for an influx of
   bytes. By 2011 it hopes to have thousands of servers in its
   aluminum-plant-turned-server-farm, powered by ultracheap geothermal energy
   and cooled by free arctic air. Iceland's biggest Web host, ironically
   named 1984 Web Hosting, is excited about the boost Immi could give its
   business. "I created this company to prevent thought control," says Mordur
   Ingolfsson, its chief executive. "In my humble opinion, Immi is the most
   important thing to happen to this godforsaken island since the Sagas were
   written." (That's 600-plus years.)

    

   Jonsdottir agrees: "WikiLeaks was an important icebreaker. It was the tip.
   Immi is the rest of the wedge, and it will open up everything." (She is
   less thrilled to learn that Assange speaks of Immi as his personal
   creation.)I ask Assange how he expects companies to cope with a world
   where hundreds of WikiLeak-alikes may soon exist. His three-part
   prescription is earnest-if a bit patronizing: "Do things to encourage
   leaks from dishonest competitors. Be as open and honest as possible. Treat
   your employees well."

   He also wants to clear up a misunderstanding. Despite his revolutionary
   reputation, he's not antibusiness. He bristles at the media's focus on his
   teenage years as a computer hacker who broke into dozens of systems, from
   the Department of Defense to Nortel, and was eventually convicted on 25
   charges of computer fraud and fined thousands of dollars.

    

   Instead, he prefers to think of himself as an entrepreneur. He tells the
   story of a free-speech-focused Internet service provider he cofounded in
   1993, known as Suburbia. It was, to hear him tell it, the blueprint for
   WikiLeaks-in one instance, when the Church of Scientology demanded to know
   who had posted antichurch information on one site, he refused to help.
   ("He has titanium balls," says David Gerard, that site's creator.) "I saw
   it early on, without realizing it: potentiating people to reveal their
   information, creating a conduit," Assange says. "Without having any other
   robust publisher in the market, people came to us."

    

   Leaks merely lubricate the free market, he says, settling into the couch
   and clearly enjoying giving me a lecture on economics. (Later, as a
   45-minute interview pushes into two hours, he ignores his handler, who
   keeps urging him to leave for his next appointment.) He cites the example
   of the Chinese Sanlu Group, whose milk powder contained toxic melamine in
   2008. While poisoning its customers, Sanlu also gained an advantage over
   competitors and might have forced more of them to taint their products,
   too, or go bankrupt-if Sanlu hadn't been exposed in the Chinese press. "In
   the struggle between open and honest companies and dishonest and closed
   companies, we're creating a tremendous reputational tax on the unethical
   companies," he says.

    

   Of course, Assange's tax isn't as equitable as it sounds. He alone decides
   where to apply the penalty, choosing the targets and when to expose them
   with a touch of theatrical grandstanding-and with zero accountability. For
   better-and worse-WikiLeaks has become the Julian Assange Show. As a
   photographer begins shooting, Assange wonders aloud if the coat he's
   wearing might have been produced by a labor-exploiting company. A few
   minutes later he jokes about his "messiah complex."

    

   Like any true believer, Assange sees his work in simple terms. Markets, he
   reminds me, can't exist without information. Business will come to
   appreciate what he offers. And if that requires a few painful scandals in
   the process?

    

   Assange doesn't miss a beat. "Pain for the guilty.

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Wednesday, December 08, 2010 19:39
   To: analysts
   Subject: Random Business Idea - Network Security

    

   I'm sure this has been thought of before at STRATFOR so excuse the
   redundancy. I was reading a solid Forbes article on Assange and it said
   that a large number of deep pocket corporations were looking into
   leak-focused network security after these Wikileak episodes.

   I was wondering if it was possible for us to get some of that
   "leak-focused" gravy train. This is an obvious fear sale, so that's a good
   thing. And we have something to offer that the IT security companies
   don't, mainly our focus on counter-intelligence and surveillance that Fred
   and Stick know better than anyone on the planet.

   We do a lot of good work with all the personal/executive security analysis
   as well. Could we develop some ideas and procedures on the idea of
   "leak-focused" network security that focuses on preventing one's own
   employees from leaking sensitive information.

   The point here is that I am sure there are certain procedures and
   precautions that companies should employ that go beyond installing network
   security network to deal with potential leaks. In fact, Im not so sure
   this is an IT problem that requires an IT solution.

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-09 07:34:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/875135_re-random-business-idea-network-security-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kevin.stech@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>877901</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   Sean, just to be clear

   Your point is that Anonymous hasn't mattered?  Is your argument that
   hackers haven't mattered either?  because if Anonymous is a mob of hackers
   as you argue, how haven't they mattered to their targets?  what about all
   the money spent fighting them?  and as Tristan just pointed out - how
   about HBGary Federal?  He said the CEO's SSN and address were posted on
   Twitter.  What about all the sensitive emails that were lost?  We have no
   way of knowing what was in those emails, or how they are being used to
   make money at the expense of HBGary.  I have always agreed that they
   haven't reached a level of threat to the US, but that surely doesn't mean
   they won't.  And there are quite a few countries, organizations, and
   people below that rather high standard who could not withstand an attack,
   including an email purge of personal emails onto the web. 

   On 10/24/11 7:33 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     As far as Aurora, I haven't followed it closely. Did they ever identify
     the attackers or number of attackers? I thought the target set was the
     only thing that led people to believe the Chinese government was
     responsible.

     2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
     responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating cyber
     intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case HUMINT is
     just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT capabilities does not
     indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers. NSA may have there own
     department for tracking hackers but it does not make it SIGINT.

     Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

     Wikipedia provides an indepth explanation on SIGINT . But in short,
     SIGINT is the capability in exploiting signals provided by communication
     devices, and what can be obtained by exploiting the signals. Combining
     computer network operations and SIGINT is innaccurate, because while
     SIGINT may be used with other intelligence disciplines in order to
     identify a hacker, it is not necessary and is no more related than any
     other intel discipline. SIGINT could help you identify a computer
     devices (not the operator) emitting a signal (wifi), and cryptanalysis,
     which is also separate from SIGINT but often used in conjunction, could
     help in providing methods to decrypt messages over a network, but SIGINT
     wouldn't obtain those messages.

     In order to exploit computer network operations, the operators involved
     are specifically trained in computer science disciplines and
     technologies tailored specifically for computer activity.

     NSA also is the primary agency for cryptanalysis. Because of
     technological demands of SIGINT and cryptanalysis, NSA has enormous
     resources in R&amp;D, so I can see why the USG would move some CNO to NSA.
     But their SIGINT capabilities are not indicators of CNO capabilities.

     Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary labor
     for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are discussing
     operations on the scale of causing physical damage to extremely
     sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of a cyber attack that
     matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not mattered.  You chose the most
     prolific example of a cyber attack (which the whole operation consisted
     mainly outside of the cyber attack itself). Anything that falls short of
     this doesn't matter? Define what matters. None of anonymous' attacks
     have physically damaged secret Iranian nuclear facilities, but I think
     you are downplaying too much the significance of exposing corporate
     secrets, halting businesses' revenues, and embarrassing State actors by
     defacing their websites.

     On 10/24/11 5:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       On 10/24/11 5:07 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

         On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already The USG
           arrested 10 Russian spies last year, are you willing to say
           foreign intel is not capable of conducting espionage undetected?
           No, of course not.  But I also would not argue that the SVR is so
           good to be immune to detection, as you are arguing with hackers. 
           I'm saying they are more detectable than you think.  There is no
           such thing as truly anonymous.  Everythign leaves a trail.  Will
           that trail in every instance lead to a single individual? no.  but
           it can lead to a place, an organization, and often, an
           individual. 

           2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
           responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating
           cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this
           case HUMINT is just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT
           capabilities does not indicate its capabilities in tracking
           hackers. NSA may have there own department for tracking hackers
           but it does not make it SIGINT.

           Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

           The question is if the attack is high priority enough.  Many
           people assume there is no attribution because there is no
           response, but I don't think that is accurate.  Many people say
           this, because no attribution is one reason for no response.  Yes,
           they do, and if they think that is the primary reason for lack of
           response, then I think they are wrong. 

           3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new
           laptop and start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack
           involves much more than a recently bought laptop.  In the same way
           there is an attack cycle for a terrorist attack or crime, there is
           one for a cyber attack.  A very simple attack may be as hard to
           trace as a nearly-random mugging in the dark in a neighborhood
           with much more serious crime and no CCTV cameras.  A more
           complicated attack, however, involves pre-operational
           surveillance, developing exploits, developing programs and code,
           gaining access, exploiting that, and carrying out an attack. 
           Discovering exploits and writing code can be done entirely
           offline, out of sight of law enforcement or intel agencies.
           Pre-operational surveillance and gaining access (the point of the
           exploit you write offline) would fit in my example. The point is,
           if you don't link your computer to identifiable information, you
           remain anonymous. Just like people use certain methods to build
           IEDs, people use certain mehtods to design programs and code for
           cyber attacks.  Over time, those methods become identifiable and
           more and more attributable. This is, for example, how AURORA is
           linked back to the Chinese.  and very specific Chinese, I may add.
           Being connected or unconnected doesn't matter, eventually you have
           to use what you develop, or copy from someone, and all of those
           things can be analyzed.   And that takes time, giving more time
           for your exposure Exposure comes from network activity with the
           target, a lot of the pre-operational phase of an attack can occur
           without network activity. Look at everything that went into
           Stuxnet as a great example, that couldn't be done with one person
           with a new laptop. Writing the code and hacking was just a small
           part of necessary labor for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't
           think we are discussing operations on the scale of causing
           physical damage to extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is
           an example of a cyber attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so
           far has not mattered.   All of this activity provides activity and
           evidence which helps for attribution.  Of course it is always
           possible to develop an attack, just like any other operation, that
           even the best law enforcement and national intelligence agencies
           have trouble or cannot attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that
           it's very difficult for someone to successfully use Anonymous as a
           cover and have NSA, GHQ, MID, Aman, etc, be unable to attribute
           it.  How do you know if NSA or GHQ is effective in identifying
           hackers?I don't, but I'm confident they are far better than you
           are allowing for.    They may not choose to cover it if it is
           small scale crime, however. 
           On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored
             cyber warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing
             that, since you can conduct a cyber attack without associating
             with a hacker group and still deny / cover actions on behalf of
             the State. An individual attacking US computer assets from
             China, may be working by himself or on behalf of the Chinese
             government, but unless the US has other intel on the Chinese
             government's cyber warfare activities in order to corroborate
             there is little capability to distinguish.

             It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
             operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets
             from SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual
             responsible for hacking State run servers. In the past, I have
             turned to SIGINT organizations for collections on computer
             related material, but this was due to the US being behind in
             cyber warfare, and not knowing where to assign responsibility.
             However, this has changed dramatically in the last couple of
             years.

             Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As
             an extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go
             to a Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the
             online activity to something revealing (accessing personal email
             accounts, tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop,
             etc..), and begin hacking government email accounts then never
             use the laptop again. Unless LEA could get an accurate
             description of my appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible
             security cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

             Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to
             these enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied
             to specific computer-related activities because of the
             difficulty in identifying individuals.

             I think the most likely way for a "Anonymous cover" to be blown,
             would be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a
             common participant in "Anonymous" activities, was working for a
             State? Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that
             State agent organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter
             buddies, what signs could a LEA look for to distinguish?

             On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

               In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a
               bit)

               1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything
               actually harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't,
               but i'm very doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first
               real case where they could do some minor damage--to individual
               people, not not to an organization or anything that would come
               as a serious or strategic threat. 

               2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is
               actually pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as
               a cover, but that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could
               probably still be attributed if important enough to those
               agencies.  The recent attack on Sony actually brings this
               issue up- Whoever is calling themselves anonymous denies they
               did it.  And keep in mind how much they have claimed an
               publicized attacks in the past, even before they were carried
               out.  The attack on the Playstation Network was more
               sophisticated than anonymous' usual work (though potentially
               coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that distracted
               Sony's IT security).  But whoever did it, again, no real
               damage came of it.  Congress is holding hearings over data
               security, but this is no different than the OC groups stealing
               your credit card information.  LE will go after them, have
               some success, but the threat is not that large. 
               On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

                 Link: themeData

                 I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to
                 have a broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no
                 nothing, or almost nothing about what this group is and the
                 threat it poses. Reviewing their list of attacks
                 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in
                 most of the cases, they are the "good" guys, sort of a Robin
                 Hood of the internet . The interesting thing when it comes
                 to their interactions with the cartels is the dubious role
                 they play: at the same time they can be fighting crime by
                 revealing cartel members/supporters, but they can also put
                 lives in risk.

                 However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
                 Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth,
                 can conduct a cyber attack under "Anonymous" is worrisome.
                 (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

                 If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
                 websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to
                 know more about these guys. Who they are? What are they
                 interested in? How they operate? Who they have targeted so
                 far? How can I defend myself from them? In what countries
                 are they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use
                 them to achieve any particular goal?

                 On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                   nice.  i still think the central focus, and what
                   everything else can build off of, is that Anonymous
                   doesn't know the threat they pose to innocent people
                   caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing on
                   journalists or taxi drivers they show little understanding
                   of the situation.  This has long term implications in not
                   just Mexico.  They don't consider the consequences of
                   their actions and they act without understanding the
                   environment.  It was the same when they released
                   information on the Sony Playstation network to protest
                   Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

                   On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                     Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of
                     discussing possible cartel responses, the focus is on
                     what type of threat Anonymous can pose to cartels. The
                     video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing
                     personal information on cartels as well as states a
                     member had been kidnapped. I could not find any sources
                     outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being
                     kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous
                     Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be
                     an individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the
                     Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is
                     speculation.

                     Link: themeData
                     Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
                     distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on
                     government websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the
                     Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's criminal
                     cartels, including a video depicting a masked individual
                     addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the
                     most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats
                     towards the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as
                     releasing identities of taxi drivers, police,
                     politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal
                     cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a
                     fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. In
                     the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                     mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                     reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped
                     member are not met. The potential of conflict between
                     Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents a unique
                     threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out at
                     online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on
                     cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

                     What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                          o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical
                     security threat to Mexican cartels.
                          o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to
                     exploit online media
                          o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico
                     to lash out at cartels

                     While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to
                     pose a threat
                          o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to
                     possess identifiable information on cartel members
                          o     It is unknown what information Anonymous
                     could acquire on cartels
                          o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
                     communications, identifiable information on cartels
                     members have to be considered in the realm of
                     possibilities for
                                 Anonymous
                                 o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability
                     to reveal illicit online activity (child pornography
                     rings)

                     Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
                     ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
                     result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
                     limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting
                     in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any
                     possible retribution. They may not even know the impact
                     of any online assault of cartels.
                          o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
                     journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not
                     understand some of these individuals are forced to
                     collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are
                     often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
                     halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals
                     will not have a significant impact on cartel            
                           operations. Politicans have been accused of
                     working with cartels (Guerrero &amp; Veracruz' governor)
                     before, however there has yet to be any consequences
                     from this.
                          o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the
                     extent cartels are willing to go protect their
                     operations.
                             o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                             o    Cartels have reached out to the computer
                     science community before, coercing computer science
                     majors into working for them.
                             o    This provides the cartels with the
                     possibility of discovering hackers within Mexico.

                      

                     On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                       Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the
                       idea but there are several issues to address and fix
                       here.

                       These are the bullets of my main analytical concern
                       with the discussion:

                            o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why.
                       that's fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                            o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a
                       difference between stealing bank records from
                       government computers and overloading www.loszetas.com
                       main page.
                            o     There's no thought out process of what sort
                       of information could anon have on the cartels. What
                       kind of info is kept online and accessible to
                       potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
                       identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
                       politicians and businessmen who need to worry about
                       what anon is going to be saying. Think about why the
                       bloggers and media were killed in previous instances.
                       Was it because they revealed operational details,
                       because they acted as informants, because they exposed
                       links with officials or because they somehow sullied
                       the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
                       information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                            o     Once you identify this info - think about
                       if anon can realistically access it and disseminate it
                       so it causes a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have
                       any intelligence capacity except for the technical
                       ability by a very small number of its members to
                       infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
                       information. Now what kind of information would a
                       cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
                       internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
                       information be found? Government databases? Once we
                       know what kind of information is accessible, we can
                       also know more about the consequences of
                       dissemination.
                            o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel?
                       Sufficient to trace back attacks? If it's not, there
                       risks to be a lot of killings done by people who may
                       not understand the difference between an anon hacker
                       and a blogger.

                       On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                         wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                         -------- Original Message --------

                          Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                             Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                             From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
                         Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                               To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

                         you've got some of the issues here, but this is
                         going to need a lot more work

                         You need to lay out:

                         a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your
                         trigger section is unclear
                         b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence
                         is, and therefore their vulnerabilities and
                         capabilities
                         c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high
                         security anything
                         d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to
                         kill anyone who breaches their systems or exposes
                         their connections

                         I also just want to point out that we have
                         reasonable reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very
                         least has some significant levels of sophistication
                         in their online presence, to include the use of
                         cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
                         is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also
                         conduct business online, in a protected fashion.

                         Karen Hooper
                         Latin America Analyst
                         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                         c: 512.750.7234
                         STRATFOR
                         www.stratfor.com
                         On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                         On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                         Link: themeData

                         Trigger

                         Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy,
                         hackers. Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group
                         famous for...?, lashed out at drug cartels via the
                         Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
                         criminal cartels, including a video released
                         depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a
                         screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent video
                         release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                         criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing
                         identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers,
                         police, politicians, and journalists who collude
                         with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los
                         Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
                         face consequences. The potential of conflict between
                         Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
                         unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly
                         different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas
                         leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have
                         little experience in handling. i believe that
                         Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
                         not believe for a second that the cartels have no
                         experience with hackers.

                          

                         In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
                         was mentioned as a day cartels could expect
                         Anonymous' reaction if their demands of releasing a
                         kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up
                         front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is
                         threatening to hit back. Provide enough details so
                         we understand who this guy is and why/how he was
                         abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of
                         possessing revealing information on cartel members
                         and operations are true, cartels will likely respond
                         with violence against individuals revealed as
                         opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous
                         members?. It also is likely that public disclosure
                         of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force
                         the GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat
                         complexity i don't understand what this means. You
                         mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
                         effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
                         against Anonymous remains unanswered . However,
                         cartels will continue their threats against any
                         individual using online media WC.... you mean tools?
                         or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here.
                         against the cartels.

                          

                         The Battle Space

                         Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two
                         separate realities from each other. Anonymous
                         operates solely in sphere of the computer networks.
                         Anonymous does not experience geographical
                         boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
                         exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely
                         true. They are physical people tho live in the real
                         world. They have names and addresses - although most
                         of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power
                         base consists of their technical capabilities in
                         hacking. Any information connected to the Internet
                         is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying
                         the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst
                         of Mexico's population could be quite difficult.
                          Remember that most of what Anonymous has done are
                         DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big
                         company with a website that brings in revenue, but
                         it does not really matter if you don't run
                         operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money
                         via e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on
                         the web than the jihadists.)

                         Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but
                         it's power base consists of the perceived anonymity
                         that its members believe themselves to have, real or
                         otherwise, by operating through the internet. This
                         gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
                         and everything to practice general dickery. As the
                         popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll.
                         Only a fraction of the large web of people who
                         identify themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of
                         serious IT capability. 

                         The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so
                         far has been from targeted arrests by Law
                         Enforcement Agencies.

                         The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the
                         streets in US and Mexican cities. They are run as a
                         business, always looking to maximize profits and
                         expand. But they are bricks and mortar commerce.
                         Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
                         and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that
                         from insight. There is no reason to assume that Los
                         Zetas don't have a similar capacity.  Their power
                         base is built by large amounts of revenue and
                         escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas,
                         are experienced in facing different types of
                         threats. Cartels are always suffering at the hands
                         of cartel on cartel violence. While battling each
                         other, cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement
                         Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in
                         the flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted
                         media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
                         bloggers in order to cover details of their
                         operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng
                         for this discussion. You need to focus on the
                         possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just
                         assume they have no cyber presence.

                          

                         Anonymous' Weapons

                         Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous'
                         actions against criminal cartels has yet to be seen.
                         Anonymous' only ability to combat cartels lay in
                         information operations, mainly disseminating
                         sensitive information on cartels and propagating
                         anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced
                         websites in Mexico you mean so far and that we know
                         of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
                         cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The
                         significance of a targeted information operations
                         campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
                         overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels
                         view main stream media outlets and social media
                         blogs as such a threat to their operations, that
                         they have continued to target journalists and
                         bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas
                         was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly,
                         on the body of a blogger. The message threatened any
                         users who denounce cartels on blogging websites.
                         getting repetitive here, and it's not really
                         addressing the subheading

                         As stated earlier, any information connected to the
                         internet risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is
                         ample reason to suggest Anonymous is capable of
                         possessing information they threaten to release. By
                         releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
                         Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of
                         those individuals. Anonymous's ability to
                         disseminate sensitive information is limited by what
                         is available via the Internet. Government computers
                         connected to the Internet should always be
                         considered a possibility of an attack. However, as
                         with the compartmentalized nature of the US
                         governments computer networks, information available
                         to Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy
                         to acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This
                         isn't clear at all

                          

                         Cartel's Defense

                                     A counter response to the video? by the
                         cartels has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous'
                         claims of a kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest
                         Los Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by
                         hackers so... how has there not been a counter
                         response? also this undermines your statements above
                         about how Anonymous is soley internet based, and
                         underlines the vulnerabilities of associated
                         members. How did they find teh Anonymous member? The
                         answer to that could very well give you some
                         indication to the technical ability of the cartels .
                         As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
                         wide web , the cartels will face a number of
                         challenges which rarely are posed for them Again,
                         how do you know? The USG has whole agencies
                         dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can
                         assume (and we have good intel indicating that) they
                         are working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers
                         threatening cartels, can operate in any region of
                         the world. Personal information including locations
                         is only available if a hacker chooses to divulge it
                         or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
                         figure it out. Hackers don't only work for
                         Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with
                         their online enemy, if they can physically reach out
                         to them. Or start employing hackers of their own
                         under their payroll? Stranger things have happened,
                         Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                                     Cartels have been known to coerce the
                         services of Mexican citizens with a technical
                         background. Recruiting the help of computer science
                         majors through personal threats has been reported in
                         the past where? What cartels? reported where?. 
                         Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence
                         and drug trafficking, they will likely need the
                         assistance of technical experts to help combat any
                         threat by computer hackers.  While identifying
                         bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it
                         is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any
                         hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
                         enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more
                         technical experience and resources than cartels,
                         struggle to find hackers through investigations. A)
                         How do you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the
                         guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that
                         not all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                                     In order to compete with an online foe,
                         cartels will likely continue counter tactics they
                         are most familiar with, brute force. Cartels are
                         still capable of their HUMINT operations within
                         Mexico "still"? why would we assume they wouldn't
                         be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
                         communities will likely be targeted and interrogated
                         by cartel members.  Narco banners and public display
                         of violence will likely continue to be used to scare
                         online media into submission i'm not really seeing
                         the online media-international hacking group
                         connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
                         inflict harm, is something computer hackers have
                         unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether
                         the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence
                         of Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels
                         are able to seek out and capture members of the
                         hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the
                         collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off any
                         inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

               --

               Sean Noonan

               Tactical Analyst

               Office: +1 512-279-9479

               Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

               Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

               www.stratfor.com

           --

           Sean Noonan

           Tactical Analyst

           Office: +1 512-279-9479

           Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

           Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

           www.stratfor.com

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-25 02:47:49</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/877901_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>colby.martin@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>878708</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   Yes, in response to your first question. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Colby Martin" &lt;colby.martin@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: analysts@stratfor.com
   Sent: Monday, October 24, 2011 7:47:49 PM
   Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels

   Sean, just to be clear

   Your point is that Anonymous hasn't mattered?  Is your argument that
   hackers haven't mattered either?  because if Anonymous is a mob of hackers
   as you argue, how haven't they mattered to their targets?  what about all
   the money spent fighting them?  and as Tristan just pointed out - how
   about HBGary Federal?  He said the CEO's SSN and address were posted on
   Twitter.  What about all the sensitive emails that were lost?  We have no
   way of knowing what was in those emails, or how they are being used to
   make money at the expense of HBGary.  I have always agreed that they
   haven't reached a level of threat to the US, but that surely doesn't mean
   they won't.  And there are quite a few countries, organizations, and
   people below that rather high standard who could not withstand an attack,
   including an email purge of personal emails onto the web. 

   On 10/24/11 7:33 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     As far as Aurora, I haven't followed it closely. Did they ever identify
     the attackers or number of attackers? I thought the target set was the
     only thing that led people to believe the Chinese government was
     responsible.

     2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
     responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating cyber
     intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case HUMINT is
     just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT capabilities does not
     indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers. NSA may have there own
     department for tracking hackers but it does not make it SIGINT.

     Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

     Wikipedia provides an indepth explanation on SIGINT . But in short,
     SIGINT is the capability in exploiting signals provided by communication
     devices, and what can be obtained by exploiting the signals. Combining
     computer network operations and SIGINT is innaccurate, because while
     SIGINT may be used with other intelligence disciplines in order to
     identify a hacker, it is not necessary and is no more related than any
     other intel discipline. SIGINT could help you identify a computer
     devices (not the operator) emitting a signal (wifi), and cryptanalysis,
     which is also separate from SIGINT but often used in conjunction, could
     help in providing methods to decrypt messages over a network, but SIGINT
     wouldn't obtain those messages.

     In order to exploit computer network operations, the operators involved
     are specifically trained in computer science disciplines and
     technologies tailored specifically for computer activity.

     NSA also is the primary agency for cryptanalysis. Because of
     technological demands of SIGINT and cryptanalysis, NSA has enormous
     resources in R&amp;D, so I can see why the USG would move some CNO to NSA.
     But their SIGINT capabilities are not indicators of CNO capabilities.

     Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary labor
     for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are discussing
     operations on the scale of causing physical damage to extremely
     sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of a cyber attack that
     matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not mattered.  You chose the most
     prolific example of a cyber attack (which the whole operation consisted
     mainly outside of the cyber attack itself). Anything that falls short of
     this doesn't matter? Define what matters. None of anonymous' attacks
     have physically damaged secret Iranian nuclear facilities, but I think
     you are downplaying too much the significance of exposing corporate
     secrets, halting businesses' revenues, and embarrassing State actors by
     defacing their websites.

     On 10/24/11 5:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       On 10/24/11 5:07 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

         On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already The USG
           arrested 10 Russian spies last year, are you willing to say
           foreign intel is not capable of conducting espionage undetected?
           No, of course not.  But I also would not argue that the SVR is so
           good to be immune to detection, as you are arguing with hackers. 
           I'm saying they are more detectable than you think.  There is no
           such thing as truly anonymous.  Everythign leaves a trail.  Will
           that trail in every instance lead to a single individual? no.  but
           it can lead to a place, an organization, and often, an
           individual. 

           2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
           responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating
           cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this
           case HUMINT is just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT
           capabilities does not indicate its capabilities in tracking
           hackers. NSA may have there own department for tracking hackers
           but it does not make it SIGINT.

           Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

           The question is if the attack is high priority enough.  Many
           people assume there is no attribution because there is no
           response, but I don't think that is accurate.  Many people say
           this, because no attribution is one reason for no response.  Yes,
           they do, and if they think that is the primary reason for lack of
           response, then I think they are wrong. 

           3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new
           laptop and start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack
           involves much more than a recently bought laptop.  In the same way
           there is an attack cycle for a terrorist attack or crime, there is
           one for a cyber attack.  A very simple attack may be as hard to
           trace as a nearly-random mugging in the dark in a neighborhood
           with much more serious crime and no CCTV cameras.  A more
           complicated attack, however, involves pre-operational
           surveillance, developing exploits, developing programs and code,
           gaining access, exploiting that, and carrying out an attack. 
           Discovering exploits and writing code can be done entirely
           offline, out of sight of law enforcement or intel agencies.
           Pre-operational surveillance and gaining access (the point of the
           exploit you write offline) would fit in my example. The point is,
           if you don't link your computer to identifiable information, you
           remain anonymous. Just like people use certain methods to build
           IEDs, people use certain mehtods to design programs and code for
           cyber attacks.  Over time, those methods become identifiable and
           more and more attributable. This is, for example, how AURORA is
           linked back to the Chinese.  and very specific Chinese, I may add.
           Being connected or unconnected doesn't matter, eventually you have
           to use what you develop, or copy from someone, and all of those
           things can be analyzed.   And that takes time, giving more time
           for your exposure Exposure comes from network activity with the
           target, a lot of the pre-operational phase of an attack can occur
           without network activity. Look at everything that went into
           Stuxnet as a great example, that couldn't be done with one person
           with a new laptop. Writing the code and hacking was just a small
           part of necessary labor for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't
           think we are discussing operations on the scale of causing
           physical damage to extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is
           an example of a cyber attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so
           far has not mattered.   All of this activity provides activity and
           evidence which helps for attribution.  Of course it is always
           possible to develop an attack, just like any other operation, that
           even the best law enforcement and national intelligence agencies
           have trouble or cannot attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that
           it's very difficult for someone to successfully use Anonymous as a
           cover and have NSA, GHQ, MID, Aman, etc, be unable to attribute
           it.  How do you know if NSA or GHQ is effective in identifying
           hackers?I don't, but I'm confident they are far better than you
           are allowing for.    They may not choose to cover it if it is
           small scale crime, however. 
           On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored
             cyber warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing
             that, since you can conduct a cyber attack without associating
             with a hacker group and still deny / cover actions on behalf of
             the State. An individual attacking US computer assets from
             China, may be working by himself or on behalf of the Chinese
             government, but unless the US has other intel on the Chinese
             government's cyber warfare activities in order to corroborate
             there is little capability to distinguish.

             It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
             operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets
             from SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual
             responsible for hacking State run servers. In the past, I have
             turned to SIGINT organizations for collections on computer
             related material, but this was due to the US being behind in
             cyber warfare, and not knowing where to assign responsibility.
             However, this has changed dramatically in the last couple of
             years.

             Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As
             an extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go
             to a Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the
             online activity to something revealing (accessing personal email
             accounts, tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop,
             etc..), and begin hacking government email accounts then never
             use the laptop again. Unless LEA could get an accurate
             description of my appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible
             security cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

             Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to
             these enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied
             to specific computer-related activities because of the
             difficulty in identifying individuals.

             I think the most likely way for a "Anonymous cover" to be blown,
             would be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a
             common participant in "Anonymous" activities, was working for a
             State? Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that
             State agent organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter
             buddies, what signs could a LEA look for to distinguish?

             On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

               In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a
               bit)

               1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything
               actually harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't,
               but i'm very doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first
               real case where they could do some minor damage--to individual
               people, not not to an organization or anything that would come
               as a serious or strategic threat. 

               2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is
               actually pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as
               a cover, but that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could
               probably still be attributed if important enough to those
               agencies.  The recent attack on Sony actually brings this
               issue up- Whoever is calling themselves anonymous denies they
               did it.  And keep in mind how much they have claimed an
               publicized attacks in the past, even before they were carried
               out.  The attack on the Playstation Network was more
               sophisticated than anonymous' usual work (though potentially
               coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that distracted
               Sony's IT security).  But whoever did it, again, no real
               damage came of it.  Congress is holding hearings over data
               security, but this is no different than the OC groups stealing
               your credit card information.  LE will go after them, have
               some success, but the threat is not that large. 
               On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

                 I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to
                 have a broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no
                 nothing, or almost nothing about what this group is and the
                 threat it poses. Reviewing their list of attacks
                 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in
                 most of the cases, they are the a**gooda** guys, sort of a
                 Robin Hood of the internet . The interesting thing when it
                 comes to their interactions with the cartels is the dubious
                 role they play: at the same time they can be fighting crime
                 by revealing cartel members/supporters, but they can also
                 put lives in risk.

                 However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
                 Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth,
                 can conduct a cyber attack under a**Anonymousa** is
                 worrisome.
                 (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

                 If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
                 websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to
                 know more about these guys. Who they are? What are they
                 interested in? How they operate? Who they have targeted so
                 far? How can I defend myself from them? In what countries
                 are they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use
                 them to achieve any particular goal?

                 On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                   nice.  i still think the central focus, and what
                   everything else can build off of, is that Anonymous
                   doesn't know the threat they pose to innocent people
                   caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing on
                   journalists or taxi drivers they show little understanding
                   of the situation.  This has long term implications in not
                   just Mexico.  They don't consider the consequences of
                   their actions and they act without understanding the
                   environment.  It was the same when they released
                   information on the Sony Playstation network to protest
                   Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

                   On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                     Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of
                     discussing possible cartel responses, the focus is on
                     what type of threat Anonymous can pose to cartels. The
                     video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing
                     personal information on cartels as well as states a
                     member had been kidnapped. I could not find any sources
                     outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being
                     kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous
                     Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be
                     an individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the
                     Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is
                     speculation.

                     Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
                     distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on
                     government websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the
                     Internet with a statements denouncing Mexicoa**s
                     criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked
                     individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October
                     10? With the most recent video release, Anonymous makes
                     bold threats towards the criminal cartels in Mexico.
                     Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers,
                     police, politicians, and journalists who collude with
                     criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
                     release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
                     consequences. In the Anonymousa** video, this coming
                     November 5th was mentioned as a day cartels could expect
                     Anonymousa** reaction if their demands of releasing a
                     kidnapped member are not met. The potential of conflict
                     between Mexicoa**s criminal cartels and hackers,
                     presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of
                     cartels lashing out at online bloggers, but I havena**t
                     seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches
                     from hackers before. 

                     What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                         a*-c-    Anonymous would not pose a direct physical
                     security threat to Mexican cartels.
                         a*-c-    Anonymous' power base is the ability to
                     exploit online media
                         a*-c-    Anonymous hackers do not have to be in
                     Mexico to lash out at cartels

                     While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to
                     pose a threat
                         a*-c-    It is unknown if Anonymousa**s claims to
                     possess identifiable information on cartel members
                         a*-c-    It is unknown what information Anonymous
                     could acquire on cartels
                         a*-c-    Bank accounts, any online transactions or
                     communications, identifiable information on cartels
                     members have to be considered in the realm of
                     possibilities for
                                 Anonymous
                                 o    Anonymous has demonstrated ita**s
                     ability to reveal illicit online activity (child
                     pornography rings)

                     Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
                     ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
                     result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
                     limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting
                     in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any
                     possible retribution. They may not even know the impact
                     of any online assault of cartels.
                         a*-c-    Revealing information on taxi drivers and
                     journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not
                     understand some of these individuals are forced to
                     collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are
                     often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
                     halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals
                     will not have a significant impact on cartel            
                           operations. Politicans have been accused of
                     working with cartels (Guerrero &amp; Veracruz' governor)
                     before, however there has yet to be any consequences
                     from this.
                         a*-c-    Anonymous hackers may not understand the
                     extent cartels are willing to go protect their
                     operations.
                             o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                             o    Cartels have reached out to the computer
                     science community before, coercing computer science
                     majors into working for them.
                             o    This provides the cartels with the
                     possibility of discovering hackers within Mexico.

                      

                     On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                       Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the
                       idea but there are several issues to address and fix
                       here.

                       These are the bullets of my main analytical concern
                       with the discussion:

                           a*-c-    we don't know who got kidnapped or why.
                       that's fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                           a*-c-    "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a
                       difference between stealing bank records from
                       government computers and overloading www.loszetas.com
                       main page.
                           a*-c-    There's no thought out process of what
                       sort of information could anon have on the cartels.
                       What kind of info is kept online and accessible to
                       potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
                       identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
                       politicians and businessmen who need to worry about
                       what anon is going to be saying. Think about why the
                       bloggers and media were killed in previous instances.
                       Was it because they revealed operational details,
                       because they acted as informants, because they exposed
                       links with officials or because they somehow sullied
                       the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
                       information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                           a*-c-    Once you identify this info - think about
                       if anon can realistically access it and disseminate it
                       so it causes a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have
                       any intelligence capacity except for the technical
                       ability by a very small number of its members to
                       infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
                       information. Now what kind of information would a
                       cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
                       internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
                       information be found? Government databases? Once we
                       know what kind of information is accessible, we can
                       also know more about the consequences of
                       dissemination.
                           a*-c-    What's the IT capacity of a cartel?
                       Sufficient to trace back attacks? If it's not, there
                       risks to be a lot of killings done by people who may
                       not understand the difference between an anon hacker
                       and a blogger.

                       On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                         wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                         -------- Original Message --------

                          Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                             Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                             From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
                         Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                               To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

                         you've got some of the issues here, but this is
                         going to need a lot more work

                         You need to lay out:

                         a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your
                         trigger section is unclear
                         b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence
                         is, and therefore their vulnerabilities and
                         capabilities
                         c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high
                         security anything
                         d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to
                         kill anyone who breaches their systems or exposes
                         their connections

                         I also just want to point out that we have
                         reasonable reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very
                         least has some significant levels of sophistication
                         in their online presence, to include the use of
                         cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
                         is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also
                         conduct business online, in a protected fashion.

                         Karen Hooper
                         Latin America Analyst
                         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                         c: 512.750.7234
                         STRATFOR
                         www.stratfor.com
                         On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                         On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                         --
                         Sean Noonan
                         Tactical Analyst
                         Office: +1 512-279-9479
                         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
                         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
                         www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-25 03:18:15</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/878708_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>882131</id>
    <title>Re: Random Business Idea - Network Security
</title>
    <description>   That is the one...

   Forbes mentions how companies are now focusing on "leak-proof" network
   security. Interesting. I think that we would have a possible in there
   since that is not just about IT. But I don't really know what I am talking
   about.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Kevin Stech" &lt;kevin.stech@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, December 9, 2010 12:11:02 AM
   Subject: RE: Random Business Idea - Network Security

   I believe this is the article Marko is talking about.

    

   WikiLeaks' next target is big business, Assange says

   Andy Greenberg, Forbes.com

   Date: Wed. Dec. 1 2010 7:39 PM ET

   http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/World/20101201/forbes-assange-interview-101201/

    

   In a rare interview, Assange tells Forbes that the release of Pentagon and
   State Department documents are just the beginning. His next target: big
   business.

    

   Early next year, Julian Assange says, a major American bank will suddenly
   find itself turned inside out. Tens of thousands of its internal documents
   will be exposed on Wikileaks.org with no polite requests for executivesa**
   response or other forewarnings. The data dump will lay bare the finance
   firma**s secrets on the Web for every customer, every competitor, every
   regulator to examine and pass judgment on.

    

   When? Which bank? What documents? Cagey as always, Assange wona**t say, so
   his claim is impossible to verify. But he has always followed through on
   his threats. Sitting for a rare interview in a London garden flat on a
   rainy November day, he compares what he is ready to unleash to the damning
   e-mails that poured out of the Enron trial: a comprehensive vivisection of
   corporate bad behavior. a**You could call it the ecosystem of
   corruption,a** he says, refusing to characterize the coming release in
   more detail. a**But ita**s also all the regular decision making that turns
   a blind eye to and supports unethical practices: the oversight thata**s
   not done, the priorities of executives, how they think theya**re
   fulfilling their own self-interest.a**

    

   This is Assange: a moral ideologue, a champion of openness, a control
   freak. He pauses to thinka**a process that occasionally puts our
   conversation on hold for awkwardly long interludes. The slim 39-year-old
   WikiALeaks founder wears a navy suit over his 6-foot-2 frame, and his once
   shaggy white hair, recently dyed brown, has been cropped to a sandy
   patchwork of blonde and tan. He says he colors it when hea**s a**being
   tracked.a**

    

   a**These big-package releases. There should be a cute name for them,a** he
   says, then pauses again.

    

   a**Megaleaks?a** I suggest, trying to move things along.

    

   a**Yes, thata**s gooda**megaleaks.a** His voice is a hoarse, Aussie-tinged
   baritone. As a teenage hacker in Melbourne its pitch helped him
   impersonate IT staff to trick companiesa** employees into revealing their
   passwords over the phone, and today ita**s deeper still after a recent
   bout of flu. a**These megaleaks . . . theya**re an important phenomenon.
   And theya**re only going to increase.a**

    

   Hea**ll see to that. By the time youa**re reading this another giant dump
   of classified U.S. documents may well be public. Assange refused to
   discuss the leak at the time FORBES went to press, but he claims it is
   part of a series that will have the greatest impact of any WikiLeaks
   release yet. Assange calls the shots: choosing the media outlets that
   splash his exposA(c)s, holding them to a strict embargo, running the leaks
   simultaneously on his site. Past megaleaks from his information insurgency
   over the last year have included 76,000 secret Afghan war documents and
   another trove of 392,000 files from the Iraq war. Those data explosions,
   the largest classified military security breaches in history, have roused
   antiwar activists and enraged the Pentagon.

    

   Admire Assange or revile him, he is the prophet of a coming age of
   involuntary transparency. Having exposed military misconduct on a grand
   scale, he is now gunning for corporate America. Does Assange have
   unpublished, damaging documents on pharmaceutical companies? Yes, he says.
   Finance? Yes, many more than the single bank scandal wea**ve been
   discussing. Energy? Plenty, on everything from BP to an Albanian oil firm
   that he says attempted to sabotage its competitorsa** wells. Like
   informational IEDs, these damaging revelations can be detonated at will.

    

   Long gone are the days when Daniel Ellsberg had to photocopy thousands of
   Vietnam War documents to leak the Pentagon Papers. Modern whistleblowers,
   or employees with a grudge, can zip up their troves of incriminating
   documents on a laptop, USB stick or portable hard drive, spirit them out
   through personal e-mail accounts or online drop sitesa**or simply submit
   them directly to WikiLeaks.

    

   What do large companies think of the threat? If theya**re terrified,
   theya**re not saying. None would talk to us. Nor would the U.S. Chamber of
   Commerce. WikiLeaks a**is high profile, legally Ainsulated and
   transnational,a** says former Commerce Department official James Lewis,
   who follows cybersecurity for the Center for Strategic &amp; International
   Studies. a**That adds up to a reputational risk that companies didna**t
   have to think about a year ago.a**

    

   Already U.S. laws wrapped into financial reform this year expand
   whistleblower incentives to offer six- and seven-digit rewards to staffers
   in any industry who report malfeasance. WikiALeaks adds another, new form
   of corporate data breach: It offers the conscience-stricken and vindictive
   alike a chance to publish documents largely unfiltered, without censors or
   personal repercussions, thanks to privacy and encryption technologies that
   make anonymity easier than ever before. WikiALeaksa** technical and
   ideological example has inspired copycats from Africa to China and rallied
   transparency advocates to push for a new, legal promised land in the
   unlikely haven of Iceland. Ita**s also fueling a race in the
   cyberAsecurity industry and in Washington to find technology that can plug
   information leaks once for all.

    

   Today Assange looks tired, his eyes narrowed and the skin beneath them
   puffy, as if hea**s unused to even Englanda**s gloomy daylight. He has no
   permanent home. a**Wea**re like a traveling production company; everyone
   moves somewhere, and we put on a production,a** he sighs. a**We havena**t
   had any rest since April.a** In Sweden, where many of the groupa**s
   servers are based, a warrant has now been issued for his arrest on rape
   charges. Hea**s denied the accusations, arguing they amount to smear
   tactics. Hea**s also afraid to set foot in several other countries,
   including the U.S., fearing that officials will find reasons to detain
   him. No question that WikiALeaks would be in trouble if he were jailed: A
   spokeswoman says it has a a**contingency plan,a** but without Assange
   there is no public face. Meanwhile, his resources have been drained by
   defections from his organization; some old friends and associates have
   taken issue with his autocratic style.

    

   None of which has stopped him from picking new fights. The promised
   release of bank documents would be the largest assault by WikiLeaks on the
   corporate sector, and Assange says the business community should expect
   plenty of sequels. In early October the site shut down its
   document-submission system; Assange says it was receiving more information
   than it could find resources to publish, thousands of additions a day at
   some points. The total is more gigabytes of data than he can count. a**Our
   pipeline of leaks has been increasing exponentially as our profile
   rises,a** he says, drawing a curve upward in the air with one hand.

    

   If even a fraction of his claims are borne out, hea**s already sitting on
   a crypt of data any three-letter spy agency would kill for. The worlda**s
   most vocal transparency advocate is now one of the worlda**s biggest
   keepers of secrets. And about half of those revelations, says Assange,
   relate to the private sector.

    

   Over the last four years he has been so busy embarrassing various
   governments, from Washington to the corrupt Kenyan regime of Daniel arap
   Moi, that many forget the corporate scandals already on WikiLeaksa**
   trophy wall. In January 2008 the site posted documents alleging that the
   Swiss bank Julius Baer hid clientsa** profits from even the Swiss
   government, concealing them in what seemed to be shell companies in the
   Cayman Islands. The bank filed a lawsuit against WikiLeaks for publishing
   data stolen from its clients. Baer later dropped the suita**but managed to
   stir up embarrassing publicity for itself. The next year WikiLeaks
   published documents from a pharma trade group implying that its lobbyists
   were receiving confidential documents from and exerting influence over a
   World Health Organization project to fund drug research in the developing
   world. The resulting attention helped crater the WHO project.

    

   In September 2009 commodities giant Trafigura filed an injunction that
   prevented British media from mentioning a damaging internal report. The
   memo showed the company had dumped tons of toxic waste in the Ivory Coast,
   chemicals that allegedly sickened 100,000 locals. But it couldna**t stop
   WikiLeaks from publishing the information. Trafigura eventually paid more
   than $200 million in settlements.

    

   How can an American corporation respond to a Wiki attack? Lawsuits wona**t
   work: WikiLeaks is legally shielded in the U.S. by its role as a mere
   conduit for documents. Even if a company somehow won a judgment against
   WikiLeaks, that wouldna**t shut it down. Assange spreads the sitea**s
   assets over many countries. a**Therea**s no single target to drop a bomb
   on,a** says Eric Goldman, a law professor at Santa Clara University.

    

   The best protection? With a dash of irony Icelandic WikiALeaks staffer
   Kristinn Hrafnsson suggests that companies change their ways to avoid
   targeting. a**They should resist the temptation to enter into
   corruption,a** he says. Don Tapscott, coauthor of The Naked Corporation
   (Free Press, 2003), agrees. His simplistic conclusion: a**Open your own
   kimono. Youa**re going to be naked. So you have to dig deep, look at your
   whole operation, make sure that integrity is part of your bones.a**

    

   Most corporations, instead, are turning to cybersecurity to shield their
   private parts. Despite dozens of calls to companies in tech, energy and
   finance, none wanted to talk about antileaking strategies. But a Forrester
   Research study found that about a quarter of companies in the U.S., the
   U.K., France, Germany and Canada were implementing leak-Afocused security
   software in 2010, and another third are considering that option. A study
   last year by the Ponemon Institute, a privacy-research consultancy in
   Traverse City, Mich., found that 60% of employees admit to taking
   sensitive data before they leave a company.

    

   *****

    

   Some of the more intriguing antileak work is being done by Uncle Sam. In
   an unmarked government building on the edge of a residential Arlington,
   Va. neighborhood, a cybersecurity researcher named Peiter Zatko shows just
   how easily leaks can occur. He lays out a blow-by-blow history of one
   insider data theft: The suspect searched broadly over the network to find
   anything related to critical infrastructure, then returned to manually
   probe a few interesting files. a**Then he walked away with enough
   information to shut down big chunks of the telephone systems in the United
   States,a** Zatko says matter-of-factly.

    

   Who was that shadowy data smuggler? a**That was me,a** says the
   39-year-old researcher, giggling bashfully.

    

   Zatko is not your typical Department of Defense employee. Even in his new
   Beltway digs, he prefers to be called a**Mudge,a** the hacker handle he
   used during decades of exploring the dark corners of the Internet. Frank
   Heidt, a former security staffer at MCI and several military contractors,
   says that when he first read Zatkoa**s exploit research in mid-1990s
   hacker zines, he thought that Mudge must be the pseudonym of a group.
   a**He was so prolific that I thought he couldna**t be one person,a** Heidt
   says. In 1998, as part of the L0pht hacker think tank, Zatko testified in
   a congressional hearing that he and his friends could shut down the
   Internet in 30 minutes.

    

   Since March Zatko has also been a lead cybersecurity researcher at the
   Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the mad-scientist wing of the
   Pentagon devoted to projects that occasionally result in breakthroughs
   like the Internet and GPS. Zatkoa**s new pet project may be equally
   ambitious: He aims to rid the world of digital leaks.

    

   The telephone system theft case that Zatko dissected in a Darpa conference
   room was a test, demonstrating that anyone with access to a network could
   steal data without detection, despite the systema**s expensive security
   software. Now his challenge is to fix the problem. Since August he has led
   a project known as the Cyber Insider Threat, or Cinder. Like most Darpa
   initiatives ita**s an X-Prize-style open invitation for ideas; recipients
   typically get tens of millions of dollars in government funding.
   Thirty-five entrants, mostly tiny companies, have already publicly signed
   up, many more in secret. a**Wea**re looking to everyone from academia to
   startups to large government contractors,a** says Zatko. a**Wea**re not
   looking for evolutionary improvement. We want to pull the rug out from the
   problem altogether.a**

    

   Ita**s a well-worn carpet. Since late 2007 every major security software
   vendor, from McAfee to Symantec to Trend Micro, has spent hundreds of
   millions of dollars to acquire companies in the so-called Data-Leak
   Prevention (DLP) industrya**software designed to locate and tag sensitive
   information, and then guard against its escape at the edges of a firma**s
   network.

    

   The problem: DLP doesna**t work. Data is simply created too quickly, and
   moved around too often, for a mere filter to catch it, says Richard
   Stiennon, an analyst for security consultancy IT-Harvest, in Birmingham,
   Mich. a**For DLP to function, all the stars have to align,a** he says.
   a**This is a huge problem that cana**t be stopped with a single layer of
   infrastructure.a**

    

   More fashionable now is network forensics: the process of constantly
   collecting every fingerprint on a companya**s servers to trace an intruder
   or leaker after the facta**and, perhaps, deter the next one. Thata**s a
   bit like fighting the next war according to the last one. Still, revenue
   at NetWitness, a prominent Herndon, Va. startup in that budding field, has
   leaped from $250,000 to $40 million since 2006. While the software
   generally gathers data and makes it easily available to queries, it
   doesna**t pinpoint culprits. a**Therea**s nothing in current technology
   that can do this in an automated fashion,a** says Shawn Carpenter,
   principal forensics analyst at NetAWitness. a**You need a Columbo.a**

    

   Or, better yet, a robo-Columbo. Darpaa**s Zatko has been working on a
   system of automatically identifying what he calls a**malicious
   missionsa**: insider activity aimed at stealing data from inside a
   companya**s firewall, whether ita**s a Dell PC remotely hijacked by a
   Chinese cyberspy or Bradley Mannings, the U.S. soldier accused of leaking
   classified documents about combat in Afghanistan to WikiLeaks. Zatkoa**s
   system would monitor networks in real-time for just the sort of
   data-stealing behavior he would perform himself: steps like scouring large
   areas of the network for a certain file, dumping piles of data to external
   storage hardware or sending encrypted files out over the Internet. No
   single episode would signal a leak; instead, the software would link acts
   in a probabilistic chain, triggering an alert only if a string of events
   points to purposeful data theft.

    

   Some of that leaky behavior isna**t what a casual observer might expect.
   Consider the cyber footprints left by Robert Hanssen, a former FBI agent
   serving a life sentence in a Colorado supermax prison for selling
   intelligence to the Soviets over two decades. Every few days Hanssen would
   stop his normal activities and make a single query to a server across the
   network, a pattern he repeated for years. That server, Zatko says, held
   the counterintelligence database. Hanssen was searching for himself, a
   routine check to see if hea**d finally been found out.

    

   a**You put all these things together into the different components of the
   mission,a** says Zatko. a**Ia**m looking for these new rhythms, new tells,
   new interrelations and requirements.a**

    

   Cinder wasna**t created to combat WikiLeaksa**in fact, it predates
   WikiLeaksa** biggest military scandals. But Zatko has nonetheless found
   himself squarely in opposition to Assangea**s missiona**a strange
   face-off, given that the two men once traveled in the same hacker circles,
   during the years when Assange went by the hacker handle Mendax (a Latin
   reference to the a**splendidly deceptivea** in the poet Horacea**s Odes)
   and reveled in accessing corporate and government systems without
   authorization. Neither will reveal much about their past encounters, but
   Assange says that they a**were in the same milieu.a** Asked about Assange,
   Zatko says only, a**I have very pleasant memories of those old days.a**

    

   WikiLeaksa** founder, in fact, seems to have trouble accepting that Mudge
   is working for the other side. a**Hea**s a clever guy, and hea**s also
   highly ethical,a** says Assange. a**I suspect he would have concerns about
   creating a system to conceal genuine abuses.a** He dismisses Cinder as
   just another system of digital censorship. And those systems, he says,
   will always fail, just as Chinaa**s Great Firewall cana**t stop
   well-informed and determined dissident Internet users. a**Censorship might
   work for the average person but not for highly motivated people,a**
   Assange says. a**And our people are highly motivated.a**

    

   *****

    

   Shutting down WikiLeaks wouldn't stop the growing movement of transparency
   agitators. They now have a nation-size ally: Iceland. Since WikiLeaks
   scored a major scoop unearthing the corrupt loans that helped destroy that
   countrya**s largest bank, the volcanic island is fast on its way to
   becoming the conduit for a global flood of leaks.

    

   It began when Kaupthing Bank collapsed in October 2008a**a calamitous
   chain reaction that has strapped Iceland with $128 billion in debts,
   around $400,000 per capita. Ten months later Bogi Agustsson, a Walter
   Cronkite-ish anchor for Icelandic national broadcaster RUV, appeared on
   the evening news and explained that a legal injunction had prevented the
   station from airing a prepared exposA(c) on Kaupthing. Viewers who wanted
   to see the material, he suggested, should visit a site called
   Wikileaks.org.

    

   Those who took Agustssona**s advice found a summary of Kaupthinga**s loan
   book posted on the site, detailing more than $6 billion funneled from
   Kaupthinga**s coffers to its own proprietors and companies they owned,
   often with little or no collateral; $900 million went to Olafur Olafsson,
   a major investor in Kaupthing who, on his birthday, flew in Elton John
   from England, along with a grand piano, for a one-hour concert. a**The
   banks had been eaten from the inside out,a** says Kristinn Hrafnsson, a
   former investigative reporter in Reykjavik who now works with WikiLeaks.

    

   A government investigation is still going on; no criminal charges have
   been filed. But WikiLeaks became a household name in Iceland. In December
   2009 Assange and Daniel Domscheit-Berg, a German who then worked with
   WikiALeaks, were invited to keynote a free-speech conference in Reykjavik.
   Their talk echoed an idea from American cyberAlibertarian John Perry
   Barlow, calling for a a**Switzerland of bits.a** Iceland, with its
   independent spirit and recent taste of explosive whistle-blowing, they
   suggested, could become the digital doppelgACURnger of a tax haven: a safe
   harbor for transparency, where ita**s open season on government and
   business secretsa**and leakers are protected by law.

    

   The idea might have gone nowhere if not for Birgitta Jonsdottir.
   Assangea**s message captivated the 43-year-old poet and self-styled
   a**realist-anarchist.a** She wasna**t just another idealistic protester
   with a goth wardrobe and hipster haircut. In the chaotic political
   environment that followed the national financial crisis, Jonsdottir had
   been elected to Icelanda**s parliament, the Althingi, in April 2009.

    

   Working with the countrya**s transparency activists, she pulled together
   the Icelandic Modern Media Initiative, or Immi. The initiative would bring
   to Iceland all the source-protection, freedom of information and
   transparency laws from around the world and even set up a Nobel-style
   international award for work in the field of free expression. Jonsdottir
   pushed through a unanimous resolution to create a series of bills to
   implement Immi. They would also make Iceland the most friendly legal base
   for whistleblowers on Earth.

    

   Velkomin, as Icelanders would say, to Leakistan.

    

   a**The more that companies resist, the more information will get out about
   them,a** says Jonsdottir when we meet in Reykjavika**s Hressingarskalinn
   cafA(c), around the corner from the parliament building. a**They cana**t
   hide anymore. The war is over. They lost.a** In Jonsdottira**s vision
   Iceland will attract both mainstream media and WikiALeaks-like
   organizations to move their data to Iceland, enjoying legal protection,
   just as another firm might incorporate in a tax-sheltering island in the
   Caribbean.

    

   She may be getting a bit ahead of herself. Immi has yet to become law,
   though it has backing from powerful figures, including both Icelanda**s
   minister of justice and the head of its progressive party. Even if it
   does, Immi likely wouldna**t offer much legal protection to organizations
   whose assets and staff arena**t physically in the country; they could
   still be sued anywhere else in the world, given that their digital and
   print publications could appear globally. Immi could also face resistance
   from the U.S. and the EUa**particularly when it comes to military matters.
   As Marc Thiessen, a conservative pundit, wrote on the blog of the American
   Enterprise Institute in August, a**Immi calls into question Icelanda**s
   seriousness as a NATO ally, and Iceland needs to realize there will be
   consequences for its actions.a** There could be a backlash for exposing
   corporate secrets, too. Alastair Mullis, a professor of law at East Anglia
   University in Britain, says, a**Ita**s possible that Iceland will become
   the defamation capital of the world.a**

    

   Jonsdottir and fellow Immi creator Smari McCarthy are pushing ahead
   anyway. Immi, they say, doesna**t fashion new laws; it cherry-picks
   existing statutes from around the world (source shields from Sweden, libel
   protection from New York State, protected communications with journalists
   from Belgium, among them). a**Wea**re basing our legislation on laws that
   have already withstood attacks,a** says Jonsdottir. Defamation and other
   concerns like child pornography and copyright violations, she argues,
   would still be illegal in Iceland and wouldna**t be sheltered.

    

   Nor is the idea to protect WikiLeaks itself, Jonsdottir points out. The
   site doesna**t need help: Its data and submissions process are carefully
   encrypted, and its infrastructure is spread over enough
   countriesa**including some servers in a bombproof, underground bunker in
   Swedena**that taking it offline is already nearly impossible.

   Instead Immi would foster a new wave of media organizations and
   whistleblower outlets that dona**t rely on WikiALeaksa** technical savvy
   or resources. Already a handful of smaller, leak-focused
   conduitsa**regional sites like Africa-focused SaharaReporters or
   Thaileaks.infoa**have published damning data. Immia**s McCarthy says
   hea**s been approached by media organizations from Rwanda to Chechnya.
   German WikiLeaks staffer Daniel Domscheit-Berg, disgruntled with
   Assangea**s laser focus on infrequent megaleaks, has left the organization
   along with several others to create his own spinoff. a**In the end there
   must be a thousand WikiLeaks,a** he told Der Spiegel in September.

    

   Iceland certainly has the infrastructure for a lot of informational
   mischief. Half an hour outside Reykjavik, on a landscape that resembles
   Mars covered in snow, the Thor Data Center is preparing for an influx of
   bytes. By 2011 it hopes to have thousands of servers in its
   aluminum-plant-turned-server-farm, powered by ultracheap geothermal energy
   and cooled by free arctic air. Icelanda**s biggest Web host, ironically
   named 1984 Web Hosting, is excited about the boost Immi could give its
   business. a**I created this company to prevent thought control,a** says
   Mordur Ingolfsson, its chief executive. a**In my humble opinion, Immi is
   the most important thing to happen to this godforsaken island since the
   Sagas were written.a** (Thata**s 600-plus years.)

    

   Jonsdottir agrees: a**WikiLeaks was an important icebreaker. It was the
   tip. Immi is the rest of the wedge, and it will open up everything.a**
   (She is less thrilled to learn that Assange speaks of Immi as his personal
   creation.)I ask Assange how he expects companies to cope with a world
   where hundreds of WikiLeak-alikes may soon exist. His three-part
   prescription is earnesta**if a bit patronizing: a**Do things to encourage
   leaks from dishonest competitors. Be as open and honest as possible. Treat
   your employees well.a**

   He also wants to clear up a misunderstanding. Despite his revolutionary
   reputation, hea**s not antibusiness. He bristles at the mediaa**s focus on
   his teenage years as a computer hacker who broke into dozens of systems,
   from the Department of Defense to Nortel, and was eventually convicted on
   25 charges of computer fraud and fined thousands of dollars.

    

   Instead, he prefers to think of himself as an entrepreneur. He tells the
   story of a free-speech-focused Internet service provider he cofounded in
   1993, known as Suburbia. It was, to hear him tell it, the blueprint for
   WikiLeaksa**in one instance, when the Church of Scientology demanded to
   know who had posted antichurch information on one site, he refused to
   help. (a**He has titanium balls,a** says David Gerard, that sitea**s
   creator.) a**I saw it early on, without realizing it: potentiating people
   to reveal their information, creating a conduit,a** Assange says.
   a**Without having any other robust publisher in the market, people came to
   us.a**

    

   Leaks merely lubricate the free market, he says, settling into the couch
   and clearly enjoying giving me a lecture on economics. (Later, as a
   45-minute interview pushes into two hours, he ignores his handler, who
   keeps urging him to leave for his next appointment.) He cites the example
   of the Chinese Sanlu Group, whose milk powder contained toxic melamine in
   2008. While poisoning its customers, Sanlu also gained an advantage over
   competitors and might have forced more of them to taint their products,
   too, or go bankrupta**if Sanlu hadna**t been exposed in the Chinese press.
   a**In the struggle between open and honest companies and dishonest and
   closed companies, wea**re creating a tremendous reputational tax on the
   unethical companies,a** he says.

    

   Of course, Assangea**s tax isna**t as equitable as it sounds. He alone
   decides where to apply the penalty, choosing the targets and when to
   expose them with a touch of theatrical grandstandinga**and with zero
   accountability. For bettera**and worsea**WikiLeaks has become the Julian
   Assange Show. As a photographer begins shooting, Assange wonders aloud if
   the coat hea**s wearing might have been produced by a labor-exploiting
   company. A few minutes later he jokes about his a**messiah complex.a**

    

   Like any true believer, Assange sees his work in simple terms. Markets, he
   reminds me, cana**t exist without information. Business will come to
   appreciate what he offers. And if that requires a few painful scandals in
   the process?

    

   Assange doesna**t miss a beat. a**Pain for the guilty.

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Wednesday, December 08, 2010 19:39
   To: analysts
   Subject: Random Business Idea - Network Security

    

   I'm sure this has been thought of before at STRATFOR so excuse the
   redundancy. I was reading a solid Forbes article on Assange and it said
   that a large number of deep pocket corporations were looking into
   leak-focused network security after these Wikileak episodes.

   I was wondering if it was possible for us to get some of that
   "leak-focused" gravy train. This is an obvious fear sale, so that's a good
   thing. And we have something to offer that the IT security companies
   don't, mainly our focus on counter-intelligence and surveillance that Fred
   and Stick know better than anyone on the planet.

   We do a lot of good work with all the personal/executive security analysis
   as well. Could we develop some ideas and procedures on the idea of
   "leak-focused" network security that focuses on preventing one's own
   employees from leaking sensitive information.

   The point here is that I am sure there are certain procedures and
   precautions that companies should employ that go beyond installing network
   security network to deal with potential leaks. In fact, Im not so sure
   this is an IT problem that requires an IT solution.

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-09 07:16:08</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/882131_re-random-business-idea-network-security-.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>883572</id>
    <title>[alpha] Occupy Wall Street (DHS analysis)
</title>
    <description>3</description>
    <date>2011-10-25 18:04:51</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/883572_-alpha-occupy-wall-street-dhs-analysis-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
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    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/13/13637_DHS IP Special.pdf</path><size>797704</size><md5></md5><sha1>cbe7c9e671329c00f0091f1c9e330de5ed455db9</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>884921</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   Good point. 
   In terrorist terms they are more like grassroots people than AQ core. 
   From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Reply-To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2011 13:11:05 -0500
   To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
   Somehow we have to stop referring to 'anonymous' as a monolith.  They are
   a bunch of different people that essentially get together in an
   online-form of a mob to carry out some action. I'm not sure how to do this
   in writing consistently.  But let's start with shit like 'people joining
   Anonymous chatrooms and claiming to be part of the movement' or something
   like that. 

   Comments in green below.  This is coming together nicely. 

   On 10/24/11 11:19 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of
     these in the US?
      What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
     I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
     whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
     because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
     revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of
     understanding of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is
     expendable to cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of
     coercion.

     Anonymous does not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
     cartels.  mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of el
     chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication as a
     tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable intelligence,
     the government will use it against the cartels. That's a physical
     threat, if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify that
     Anonymous can not directly effect physical security. Any impact to the
     cartel in revealing information will be from actions of rival cartels or
     the GoM. They may release information on a given politician being linked
     to the cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the politician will feel
     an impact (Just because Anonymous says there is a link, doesn't make it
     true). It would be up to others to take action.  I think the way you
     have it worded in the above sentence is good.  Follow with a sentence
     explaining the rest of it, because readers will have the same question
     Karen did.  Something like 'Rather, the threat to cartels would come in
     what information anonymous could expose that is useful to their enemies'

     Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online
     activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to conduct
     significant logistics and business online. We don't know how much, but
     we do know they will have some points of operational vulnerability I
     have heard of cartels doing business online, but don't have specific
     examples which could be used in assessing their vulnerability online.

     by "no consequences" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired,
     arrested or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I
     should say, there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out
     politicians as colluding.
     On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

       Karen Hooper
       Latin America Analyst
       o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
       c: 512.750.7234
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com
       On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
       Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
       possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
       Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by people using the
       banner of Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on
       cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
       find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being
       kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and
       Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting
       flyers ['critical of cartels'?] in Veracruz as part of the Operation
       Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation. [this is good and
       will be enough information to go with, though you'll need a quick
       explanation of what 'operation paperstorm' is.  Adding something in
       the explaining the flyers will work]

       Link: themeData
       Anonymous, a decentralized hacker collective  famous for distributed
       denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government and corporate websites,
       lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
       denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video depicting a
       masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With
       the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
       the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities
       of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who collude with
       criminal cartels do they specify whether or not these are all in
       Mexico? Are some of these in the US?
        What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
       group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
       face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
       was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
       their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
       potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
       presents a unique threat towards TCOs [If TCO= transnational criminal
       organization, it's not really unique.  Many such organizations do
       their crimes online, and have been hacked in response--like the
       nigerian princess scams. I think you should just say it's a unique
       threat to DTOs] . We know of cartels lashing out at online bloggers,
       but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches
       from hackers before. 

       What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
            o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat
       to Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to
       the head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using
       publication as a tool to force government action. If you reveal
       actionable intelligence, the government will use it against the
       cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
            o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
       media
            o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out
       at cartels

       While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
       threat, if it had access to certain types of information:

               -The threat is in the information they can expose that may be
   of use to any cartel enemies.  That could be to the government or other
   cartels or even local citizens (the last one may be a stretch, but i could
   imagine someone discrediting cartel members in the eyes of the public).

            o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims tocut possess
       identifiable information on cartel members 
            o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
       cartels [cut this part here, and make the point at the end of this
       section/paragraph]
            o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
       identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in
       the realm of possibilities for
                   Anonymous
                   o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
       illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are
       known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't
       know how much, but we do know they will have some points of
       operational vulnerability

      -They claim to have information on those that collude with cartels 
   (use the stuff you have above].  Releasing such information could hurt
   cartels' support networks, but most of these people are also easily
   replaceable. 
               -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents have
   access to, and doubt they have such information that provides any sort of
   existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 

       Most Anonymous hackers are likely far removed from the ultra-violent
       world of drug trafficking in Mexico, but it's quite possible that some
       of its members in this campaign are in Mexico and opposed to the
       violence [or something like that.  my limited understanding is there
       are still activist crusader-types in Mexico, yeah?  it seems very
       possible those with a bit of time or computer skills could have joined
       up with anonymous] . As a result, their understanding of cartel
       activities may be limited. Anonymous members in other countries may
       act with confidence when sitting in front of a computer, but this may
       blind them to any possible retribution. They may not even know the
       impact of any online assault of cartels.  [the part below and above is
       written rather normatively.  We need to take that out.  just state the
       facts]
            o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will
       cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are
       forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are often
       victims of extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the
       identity of these individuals will not have a significant impact on
       cartel                   operations. Politicans have been accused of
       working with cartels (Guerrero &amp; Veracruz' governor) before, however
       there has yet to be any consequences from this. by "no consequences"
       what exactly do you mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and
       that happens all the time.
            o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are
       willing to go protect their operations.
               o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
               o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
       community before, coercing computer science majors into working for
       them.
               o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
       discovering hackers within Mexico.
       need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply publishing
       tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the same camp as
       the bloggers  [yes, i think it needs to be clear that their damage
       will be similar to what bloggers or wikileaks can do--limited.  But
       maybe more a danger to themselves, since they are no longer
       challenging governments, but criminal organizations]

        

       On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

         Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there
         are several issues to address and fix here.

         These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
         discussion:

              o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but
         we can't gloss over that fact
              o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference
         between stealing bank records from government computers and
         overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
              o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
         information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
         kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
         talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
         politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
         going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
         killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
         operational details, because they acted as informants, because they
         exposed links with officials or because they somehow sullied the
         cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of information is damaging
         to the cartels themselves?
              o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
         realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of
         damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the
         technical ability by a very small number of its members to
         infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal information. Now
         what kind of information would a cartel keep on a network that is
         connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
         information be found? Government databases? Once we know what kind
         of information is accessible, we can also know more about the
         consequences of dissemination.
              o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
         back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done
         by people who may not understand the difference between an anon
         hacker and a blogger.

         On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

           wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

           -------- Original Message --------

            Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
               Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
               From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
           Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                 To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

           you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a
           lot more work

           You need to lay out:

           a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section
           is unclear
           b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
           therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
           c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
           d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone
           who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

           I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
           insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels
           of sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of
           cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason
           to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
           protected fashion.

           Karen Hooper
           Latin America Analyst
           o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
           c: 512.750.7234
           STRATFOR
           www.stratfor.com
           On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

           On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

           Link: themeData

           Trigger

           Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
           Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed
           out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
           Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released
           depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a screen?
           exactly when?.  With the most recent video release, Anonymous
           makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels. Threats such as
           releasing identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
           politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels.
           The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped
           member otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
           between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
           unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly different
           operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
           Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
           believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
           not believe for a second that the cartels have no experience with
           hackers.

            

           In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as
           a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of
           releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up
           front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit
           back. Provide enough details so we understand who this guy is and
           why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of
           possessing revealing information on cartel members and operations
           are true, cartels will likely respond with violence against
           individuals revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you mean
           Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public disclosure of
           GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take
           action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand
           what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
           effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against Anonymous
           remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue their threats
           against any individual using online media WC.... you mean tools?
           or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here. against the
           cartels.

            

           The Battle Space

           Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
           realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of
           the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical
           boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in
           cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They are physical people
           tho live in the real world. They have names and addresses -
           although most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power
           base consists of their technical capabilities in hacking. Any
           information connected to the Internet is vulnerable to exploits by
           hackers. (Identifying the pc's of individual cartel members in the
           midst of Mexico's population could be quite difficult.  Remember
           that most of what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if
           you are Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in
           revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't run operations
           on the web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are
           also far less dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

           Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base
           consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe
           themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the
           internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
           and everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme
           goes, anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large
           web of people who identify themselves as "anonymous" have any sort
           of serious IT capability. 

           The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been
           from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

           The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
           Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
           maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
           commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money and
           issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight. There
           is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar
           capacity.  Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue
           and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
           experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels are
           always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence. While
           battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement
           Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in the flow of
           drugs and money, cartels have targeted media outlets. Murdering
           journalists and online bloggers in order to cover details of their
           operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this
           discussion. You need to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of
           the cartels. Don't just assume they have no cyber presence.

            

           Anonymous' Weapons

           Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
           criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
           combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating
           sensitive information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel
           statements via social media and defaced websites in Mexico you
           mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their
           video to cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance
           of a targeted information operations campaign by technically elite
           individuals can not be overlooked should not be underestimated.
           Cartels view main stream media outlets and social media blogs as
           such a threat to their operations, that they have continued to
           target journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by
           Los Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on
           the body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
           denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive here,
           and it's not really addressing the subheading

           As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks
           disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest
           Anonymous is capable of possessing information they threaten to
           release. By releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
           Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
           individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
           information is limited by what is available via the Internet.
           Government computers connected to the Internet should always be
           considered a possibility of an attack. However, as with the
           compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer networks,
           information available to Mexico's intelligence collection may not
           be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This isn't
           clear at all

            

           Cartel's Defense

                       A counter response to the video? by the cartels has
           yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped
           member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the
           threat posed by hackers so... how has there not been a counter
           response? also this undermines your statements above about how
           Anonymous is soley internet based, and underlines the
           vulnerabilities of associated members. How did they find teh
           Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well give you some
           indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As Anonymous
           exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the cartels
           will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed for them
           Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies dedicated to
           fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good
           intel indicating that) they are working on disrupting the
           cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in any region
           of the world. Personal information including locations is only
           available if a hacker chooses to divulge it or if the subject of
           the attack is savvy enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only
           work for Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
           online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
           employing hackers of their own under their payroll? Stranger
           things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                       Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
           Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help
           of computer science majors through personal threats has been
           reported in the past where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since
           cartels operate in the world of urban violence and drug
           trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of technical
           experts to help combat any threat by computer hackers.  While
           identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is
           unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers operating
           outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies such as the FBi,
           with far more technical experience and resources than cartels,
           struggle to find hackers through investigations. A) How do you
           know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???)
           B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult
           to track down

                       In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
           likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute
           force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within
           Mexico "still"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?. 
           Individuals with alleged connections to hacker communities will
           likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco
           banners and public display of violence will likely continue to be
           used to scare online media into submission i'm not really seeing
           the online media-international hacking group connection here.  The
           cruel manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer
           hackers have unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether
           the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous
           will remain to be seen until cartels are able to seek out and
           capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the
           collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience
           that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 20:33:26</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/884921_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>886391</id>
    <title>Re: Albania
</title>
    <description>   Words like "adherence to rules of engagement", "schooled", "non-lethal
   options".... there is no place for those words in a place like Albania.

   :)

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Nate Hughes" &lt;nathan.hughes@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2011 11:50:07 AM
   Subject: Re: Albania

   Ensuring adherence to rules of engagement (assuming there has even been
   stern, clear guidance given) in riot control scenarios can itself be
   difficult. Combine that with police who may not be well schooled in it and
   do not have a whole lot of non-lethal options besides a club, and you've
   got a recipe for people getting shot.

   That said, agree that the significance is the political and the popular
   perception of what happened.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Alex Hayward &lt;alex.hayward@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2011 11:44:15 -0600 (CST)
   To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Albania
   According to the AP, "The Prosecutor General's office said arrest warrants
   had been issued for six officers of the National Guard, army troops under
   Interior Ministry command who guard government institutions and senior
   officials."

   On 1/22/11 9:42 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     Is there a chance The cops were not actually the ones who killed the
     three? I didnt see any reports or photos indicating the riot police even
     had guns. And the type of pistol used to fire the rounds was listed in
     an article yesterday. I know nothing about guns so am of no use here,
     but would it be helpful to know The kind of firearm used?

     Either way, doesnt matter. All that matters is the political angle and
     the fact that the opposition perceives the police to be culpable

     Btw artillery?!

     On 2011 Jan 22, at 08:51, Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

         From TrapWire contact (former CIA clandestine officer)

       Not sure if STRATFOR's following events there -- but I chatted with
       some
       contacts in Tirana and tomorrow (Sunday) protests are expected to be
       even larger than yesterday's -- with many in the crowd bent on
       retaliation for the police killing of three protestors. (As always,
       rumor mills are in overdrive in the Balkans with claims being made
       that
       the cops targeted these protestors for assassination. No proof yet
       that
       that's the case. Having dealt with Albanian cops for three years, I
       can
       assure you though they dona**t need much pushing to draw their
       weapons.
       They actually fired artillery rounds onto protestors during the chaos
       of
       '97). Tough times in Tirana right now.

       Mike

 --
 Alex Hayward
 STRATFOR Research Intern

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 20:11:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/886391_re-albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>nathan.hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>886464</id>
    <title>Re: Albania
</title>
    <description>   Ensuring adherence to rules of engagement (assuming there has even been
   stern, clear guidance given) in riot control scenarios can itself be
   difficult. Combine that with police who may not be well schooled in it and
   do not have a whole lot of non-lethal options besides a club, and you've
   got a recipe for people getting shot.

   That said, agree that the significance is the political and the popular
   perception of what happened.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Alex Hayward &lt;alex.hayward@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2011 11:44:15 -0600 (CST)
   To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Albania
   According to the AP, "The Prosecutor General's office said arrest warrants
   had been issued for six officers of the National Guard, army troops under
   Interior Ministry command who guard government institutions and senior
   officials."

   On 1/22/11 9:42 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     Is there a chance The cops were not actually the ones who killed the
     three? I didnt see any reports or photos indicating the riot police even
     had guns. And the type of pistol used to fire the rounds was listed in
     an article yesterday. I know nothing about guns so am of no use here,
     but would it be helpful to know The kind of firearm used?

     Either way, doesnt matter. All that matters is the political angle and
     the fact that the opposition perceives the police to be culpable

     Btw artillery?!

     On 2011 Jan 22, at 08:51, Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

         From TrapWire contact (former CIA clandestine officer)

       Not sure if STRATFOR's following events there -- but I chatted with
       some
       contacts in Tirana and tomorrow (Sunday) protests are expected to be
       even larger than yesterday's -- with many in the crowd bent on
       retaliation for the police killing of three protestors. (As always,
       rumor mills are in overdrive in the Balkans with claims being made
       that
       the cops targeted these protestors for assassination. No proof yet
       that
       that's the case. Having dealt with Albanian cops for three years, I
       can
       assure you though they don't need much pushing to draw their weapons.
       They actually fired artillery rounds onto protestors during the chaos
       of
       '97). Tough times in Tirana right now.

       Mike

 --
 Alex Hayward
 STRATFOR Research Intern
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 18:50:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/886464_re-albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>nathan.hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>886475</id>
    <title>Albania
</title>
    <description>&gt;From TrapWire contact (former CIA clandestine officer)

Not sure if STRATFOR's following events there -- but I chatted with some
contacts in Tirana and tomorrow (Sunday) protests are expected to be
even larger than yesterday's -- with many in the crowd bent on
retaliation for the police killing of three protestors. (As always,
rumor mills are in overdrive in the Balkans with claims being made that
the cops targeted these protestors for assassination. No proof yet that
that's the case. Having dealt with Albanian cops for three years, I can
assure you though they don’t need much pushing to draw their weapons.
They actually fired artillery rounds onto protestors during the chaos of
'97). Tough times in Tirana right now.

Mike
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 15:51:04</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/886475_albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>886486</id>
    <title>RE: Albania
</title>
    <description>When I went shooting with the Albanian Secret Police in 1991, they were car=
rying Chinese copies of the Makarov (I think the Chinese called it a type 5=
9 pistol). Their ammo was old, crappy and unreliable.=20




-----Original Message-----
From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] =
On Behalf Of Ben West
Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2011 12:29 PM
To: Analyst List
Subject: Re: Albania

Yeah, it'd be interesting to know the type of pistol used in the killings a=
nd then compare that to what the albanian police use - but i doubt the alba=
nian police use a standardized sidearm, so it'd be difficult to say anythin=
g conclusive.

Sent from my iPhone

On Jan 22, 2011, at 9:42, Bayless Parsley &lt;bayless.parsley@stratfor.com&gt; wr=
ote:

&gt; Is there a chance The cops were not actually the ones who killed the thre=
e? I didnt see any reports or photos indicating the riot police even had gu=
ns. And the type of pistol used to fire the rounds was listed in an article=
 yesterday. I know nothing about guns so am of no use here, but would it be=
 helpful to know The kind of firearm used?
&gt;=20
&gt; Either way, doesnt matter. All that matters is the political angle and th=
e fact that the opposition perceives the police to be culpable
&gt;=20
&gt; Btw artillery?!
&gt;=20
&gt; On 2011 Jan 22, at 08:51, Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:
&gt;=20
&gt;&gt;&gt; From TrapWire contact (former CIA clandestine officer)
&gt;&gt;=20
&gt;&gt; Not sure if STRATFOR's following events there -- but I chatted with some
&gt;&gt; contacts in Tirana and tomorrow (Sunday) protests are expected to be
&gt;&gt; even larger than yesterday's -- with many in the crowd bent on
&gt;&gt; retaliation for the police killing of three protestors. (As always,
&gt;&gt; rumor mills are in overdrive in the Balkans with claims being made that
&gt;&gt; the cops targeted these protestors for assassination. No proof yet that
&gt;&gt; that's the case. Having dealt with Albanian cops for three years, I can
&gt;&gt; assure you though they don=E2=80=99t need much pushing to draw their wea=
pons.
&gt;&gt; They actually fired artillery rounds onto protestors during the chaos of
&gt;&gt; '97). Tough times in Tirana right now.
&gt;&gt;=20
&gt;&gt; Mike
&gt;&gt;=20
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 21:09:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/886486_re-albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>887782</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA/AZ/US/VZ/RUSSIA/TAIWAN - Erdogan's
 cancer, Turkish plan for Syria and more - TR325
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE: TR325 and his business partner
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Former NSC official in Turkey, adviser to Erdogan,
   energy expert negotiator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

   TR325's business partner has an old classmate friend who was the lead
   surgeon on Erdogan's most recent operation. He said that Erdogan has colon
   cancer, but they haven't seen the second biopsy results yet to see if it's
   metastasized. In the last operation, they cut out 20 cm of Erdogan's colon
   (I just looked up that the average colon is about 1.5m long.)  That's a
   really significant operation. Erdogan is not going to be able to travel
   for a while, and he's going to have to carry around with him a colonoscopy
   bag for at least 2-3 months.  The prognosis is not looking good, though.
   The surgeon said they were estimating 2 years for him.

   This is very likely going to cause major splits within the AKP.  Gul
   doesn't have much support.  Davutoglu is paranoid that everyone else is
   trying to undermine him (there's a definite competition between him and
   TR325.)  When I asked who Erdgogan trusts, two names were mentioned - Ali
   Babacan (Deputy PM) and Taner Yildiz (energy minister.)  Both sources were
   asking how the US is likely to react to this situation.  Would they try to
   back the military like the old days?  CHP is still very much divided. Both
   seemed to think the military won't be able to take advantage of the
   situation.

   On Syria - the conversation centered on how far Turkey is actually going
   to go.  TR325 explained that the Turkish plan is centered on civil war in
   Syria.  Officially, it's Turkey providing the main training,a rms and
   support to FSA. Unofficially, US and TUrkey are doing this together in
   deploying SOF for this mission.  Notice all the talk in the press now
   about civil war breaking out in Syria. This is the narrative Turkey and US
   want to build.  I pointed out that creating the conditions for civil war -
   actual neighborhood to neighborhood fighting - is still pretty difficult
   considering that the Alawite forces are still holding together, but he
   seemed to think that this can escalate within 2 months time. He also said
   without saying that they're working on making that happen. He acknowledges
   it'll be messy and it will take a lot of blood and time for a Sunni power
   to emerge in syria, but that this is the Turkish obligation.

   The Turkish plan to preempt the instability that would result from civil
   war conditions is to implement the buffer zone 5-40km into Syrian
   territory and set up refugee camps.  I asked what levers Iran and Syria
   have to get Turkey to back off in relation to PKK.  He said
   (half-jokingly) that Karilan is Turkey's man (ie. turkey can actually
   negotiate with him.)  But he said PKK third-in-command (still need to get
   this guy's name) answers to Syria and Iran. Turkey knows this very well
   and he says Syria and Iran are already making moves to threaten attacks
   via this faction.

   I'm left with a lot of questions --

   Given the instability that is likely to result within AKP over Erdogan's
   health, would Turkey really be making bold foreign policy moves, such as
   helping to create a civil war in Syria?

   Turkey appears very confident that Syria/Iran have the means to play the
   PKK card. Why risk that?

   Turkey knows they'll be dealing with a massive refugee crisis in Syria -
   why propel that situation?

   Some other points -

   TR325 believes AZ wiill be able to export 5-7bcm via ITGI for SDII. 
   Russia has its stake in Edison to keep a foothold in that route.  The rest
   he agrees is likely going to have to be shipped to Russia eventually since
   the Europeans aren't financing anything right now. He did say that SOCAR
   is flush with money right now and could actually put money down on these
   projects if they have the market demand and client base to do it.

   They were both asking me what is happening with Trinidad and Tobago. I
   told them I have no idea. They were asking because they are involved in a
   business deal to sell conventional subs to Trinidad and Tobago. They're
   assuming the US is preparing something for VZ.  They are also involved in
   similar submarine sales to Taiwan and Japan.
</description>
    <date>2011-12-10 20:04:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/887782_-alpha-insight-turkey-syria-az-us-vz-russia-taiwan-erdogan-s.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>888343</id>
    <title>Re: Albania
</title>
    <description>   Good insight. He put some thought into this.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;, "Marko Papic"
   &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, January 25, 2011 6:09:57 PM
   Subject: Albania

   From TrapWire in response to Marko's questions --
    

   Fred -- Just in. Haven't had time to give a good scrub/spell check etc. so
   might be a bit raw. (His English is excellent, but not perfect).  M

   ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
      

    

    

    

               1. Any thoughts on what repercussions unrest in Albania could
   have for the region as a whole?

    

               Instability in Albania generally means instability within the
   Albanian diaspora in the region.

    

   A.         Kosova: Just came out of general elections and is now facing an
   internal crises . The winning party does not have enough votes to elect a
   PM or create a new government. At the same time, the leadership of the
   winning party has been accused for war crimes and trafficking in human
   organs by a Swiss reporter. These issues have endangered the current
   political process towards Kosovo independence. Negotiations with Serbia
   are now on hold. An unstable political situation in Albania will be a big
   loss for Kosovo. Kosovo has no representation in international
   institutions and Albania is her biggest supporter and ally regarding
   Kosovo foreign policy.  A crisis in Albania will make the dialogue between
   Kosovo and Serbia, which is seeking a division of northern Kosovo.

    

   A.         Macedonia: Our neighboring country has a population of 30%
   Albanians, who have been in constant conflict with the Macedonian
   government regarding their rights as a minority. Macedonian-Albanians are
   divided in to two groups:  one that is more liberal and has assimilated
   into Macedonian society; and the other a much more radical group that is
   in conflict Macedonian policies. Add to this Macedonia's on-going conflict
   with Greece, and one could speculate that any major crisis in Albania will
   only compound the problems inside Macedonia -- particularly for those
   Albanians seeking greater rights inside Macedonia. There is a precedence
   for this problem during the 1997 conflict in Albania.

    

   A.         Greece: Our only neighboring country with EU membership is
   still going through a very bad political and economic crises itself. There
   are almost 1.5 million Albanians living in Greece -- many are illegal
   immigrants working illegally. Another crises in Albania could likely fuel
   another mass exodus to Greece (and Italy) -- particularly now that
   Albanians can finally travel without visas in Europe.   

    

   2.  After 1997 anarchy, weapons flowed across the borders to Kosovo and
   Macedonia. Any chance that another crisis has an effect on neighboring
   countries?

    

               In my opinion, it is unlikely the current situation will
   deteriorate to the point of 1997, which was fueled by economic collapse
   rather than only political differences. Albanians still have strong
   memories and feelings about this period, and would likely try to avoid a
   repeata*|particularly as the only groups who will profit from another
   crises would be the weapons, drugs, and fuel traffickers .

          

    

               3.  What is Berisha's role in neighboring Kosovo and
   Macedonia. Does he have influence with Kosovo leadership? Or Macedonian
   Albanian leadership?

    

               Generally speaking, Berisha does not have much of a role in
   the region. He continues to be viewed as a model of the old leadership.
   Clearly, Kosovo will always          need the support of the Albanian PM
   and his government; however, many Kosovars remember that Berisha gave only
   lukewarm support to the KLA, and was   believed to have profited
   personally by allowing fuel shipments into Serbia and Montenegro, despite
   the NATO embargo at the time. Berisha is still viewed as            
   having too close of ties to Serbia -- one of his closest contacts is Damir
   Fasllic, a character who is believed to have contacts at the highest
   levels of the Serbian           government. Berisha does not appear to
   have particularly strong ties to Macedonia and, with the loss of
   Jukanovic, probably has limited influence in Montenegro as          well

            

    

                4.  If there is a change in government to Edvin Rama, would
   it in any way change the situation in Albania or region?

    

               Edvin Rama is the leader of the Albanian opposition Socialist
   Party -- which represents about 50 % of the Albanian voters. Rama is known
   as a head-strong and       somewhat radical figure amongst the
   international community in Albania. He is not very good at dialoguing --
   often creating situations that neither side can win.           Despite
   these weaknesses, Rama represents the "modern" leader that many Albanians
   have been hoping for since 1990. His work in modernizing and cleaning-up
               the capital has made him very popular, and given him the image
   of someone who can get things done for the people (He has twice been
   re-elected as mayor).          Rama's popularity and modern thinking has
   been commented on favorably by many EU leaders and representatives.

    

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-01-26 01:17:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/888343_re-albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>888403</id>
    <title>Re: Albania
</title>
    <description>   many Kosovars remember that Berisha gave only lukewarm support to the KLA,
   and was   believed to have profited personally by allowing fuel shipments
   into Serbia and Montenegro, despite the NATO embargo at the time.
   so i guess that means the weapons flow in 1997 was not b/c of anything
   Berisha did (err, wait, was he in power back then? my Albanian history is
   getting all jumbled)

   On 1/25/11 6:09 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

     From TrapWire in response to Marko's questions --
      

     Fred -- Just in. Haven't had time to give a good scrub/spell check etc.
     so might be a bit raw. (His English is excellent, but not perfect).  M

     ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
        

      

      

      

                 1. Any thoughts on what repercussions unrest in Albania
     could have for the region as a whole?

      

                 Instability in Albania generally means instability within
     the Albanian diaspora in the region.

      

     .         Kosova: Just came out of general elections and is now facing
     an internal crises . The winning party does not have enough votes to
     elect a PM or create a new government. At the same time, the leadership
     of the winning party has been accused for war crimes and trafficking in
     human organs by a Swiss reporter. These issues have endangered the
     current political process towards Kosovo independence. Negotiations with
     Serbia are now on hold. An unstable political situation in Albania will
     be a big loss for Kosovo. Kosovo has no representation in international
     institutions and Albania is her biggest supporter and ally regarding
     Kosovo foreign policy.  A crisis in Albania will make the dialogue
     between Kosovo and Serbia, which is seeking a division of northern
     Kosovo.

      

     .         Macedonia: Our neighboring country has a population of 30%
     Albanians, who have been in constant conflict with the Macedonian
     government regarding their rights as a minority. Macedonian-Albanians
     are divided in to two groups:  one that is more liberal and has
     assimilated into Macedonian society; and the other a much more radical
     group that is in conflict Macedonian policies. Add to this Macedonia's
     on-going conflict with Greece, and one could speculate that any major
     crisis in Albania will only compound the problems inside Macedonia --
     particularly for those Albanians seeking greater rights inside
     Macedonia. There is a precedence for this problem during the 1997
     conflict in Albania.

      

     .         Greece: Our only neighboring country with EU membership is
     still going through a very bad political and economic crises itself.
     There are almost 1.5 million Albanians living in Greece -- many are
     illegal immigrants working illegally. Another crises in Albania could
     likely fuel another mass exodus to Greece (and Italy) -- particularly
     now that Albanians can finally travel without visas in Europe.   

      

     2.  After 1997 anarchy, weapons flowed across the borders to Kosovo and
     Macedonia. Any chance that another crisis has an effect on neighboring
     countries?

      

                 In my opinion, it is unlikely the current situation will
     deteriorate to the point of 1997, which was fueled by economic collapse
     rather than only political differences. Albanians still have strong
     memories and feelings about this period, and would likely try to avoid a
     repeat...particularly as the only groups who will profit from another
     crises would be the weapons, drugs, and fuel traffickers .

            

      

                 3.  What is Berisha's role in neighboring Kosovo and
     Macedonia. Does he have influence with Kosovo leadership? Or Macedonian
     Albanian leadership?

      

                 Generally speaking, Berisha does not have much of a role in
     the region. He continues to be viewed as a model of the old leadership.
     Clearly, Kosovo will always          need the support of the Albanian PM
     and his government; however, many Kosovars remember that Berisha gave
     only lukewarm support to the KLA, and was   believed to have profited
     personally by allowing fuel shipments into Serbia and Montenegro,
     despite the NATO embargo at the time. Berisha is still viewed as
                 having too close of ties to Serbia -- one of his closest
     contacts is Damir Fasllic, a character who is believed to have contacts
     at the highest levels of the Serbian           government. Berisha does
     not appear to have particularly strong ties to Macedonia and, with the
     loss of Jukanovic, probably has limited influence in Montenegro as
              well

              

      

                  4.  If there is a change in government to Edvin Rama, would
     it in any way change the situation in Albania or region?

      

                 Edvin Rama is the leader of the Albanian opposition
     Socialist Party -- which represents about 50 % of the Albanian voters.
     Rama is known as a head-strong and       somewhat radical figure amongst
     the international community in Albania. He is not very good at
     dialoguing -- often creating situations that neither side can win.
               Despite these weaknesses, Rama represents the "modern" leader
     that many Albanians have been hoping for since 1990. His work in
     modernizing and cleaning-up             the capital has made him very
     popular, and given him the image of someone who can get things done for
     the people (He has twice been re-elected as mayor).          Rama's
     popularity and modern thinking has been commented on favorably by many
     EU leaders and representatives.

      
</description>
    <date>2011-01-26 02:27:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/888403_re-albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bayless.parsley@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>888840</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - IRAN/US/SYRIA - Iran reaching out to US on
	post-Assad set-up? - ME1 and ME1386
</title>
    <description>   What does the source think about the possibility of a palace coup that
   isn't accepted by the SNC, FSA, people in the street or some combination
   thereof? Also does source know what the Iranians think about such a
   scenario (assuming they have considered it)

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2011 6:07:16 PM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - IRAN/US/SYRIA - Iran reaching out to US on
   post-Assad set-up? - ME1 and ME1386

   my bad, that should read HZ politburo

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Michael Wilson" &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2011 10:00:59 AM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - IRAN/US/SYRIA - Iran reaching out to US on
   post-Assad set-up? - ME1 and ME1386

   You say HZ source but notes say member of Hamas politburo

   On 12/13/11 9:29 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Reva's note - this is extremely interesting, especially the bolded part
     below. DOes Iran really think it can convince the US to collaborate with
     them on regime change in SYria in such a way that will end up in Iran's
     favor? the whole point of the US focusing in on Syria is to contain Iran
     in the first place. This sounds like the Iranians are getting to be in
     an increasingly desperate position. Always be wary of source bias, but
     why would a HZ source want to spread info on the weakness of the Syrian
     regime and the lack of options for Iran?  I do believe the part about
     Iran preferring a palace coup over the Turkish strategy of building up
     an opposition via FSA.

     SOURCE: ME1 and ME1386
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: ME1 and member of Hamas politburo
     PUBLICATION: Yes - worth a tactical analysis
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: B-C
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: B-C
     SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
     SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

     Marhaba Reva,
     I strongly believe that Asad's regime will fall in 2012. The
     conventional wisdom that Asad will survive, because both Iran and Israel
     view him with favor, is a thing of the past. The situation in Syria has
     reached the point of no return. It is true than nine months of
     demonstrations have not brought down the regime but, by the same token,
     regime brutality and heavy handedness have not quelled the uprising. If
     anything, the level of hostilities and army defections is on the rise.

     The breaking point will come when the military establishment realizes
     that Asad must go. There are signs that the military establishment is
     beginning to disintegrate. I talked to [ME1386] and he told me that
     Alawite officers and enlisted men are beginning to join the ranks of the
     FSA. This represents a major development. Alawite officers are divided
     since many of them are unhappy about the use of excessive force against
     Sunni protesters.  Alawite officers are aware that Asad is trying to
     find an asylum for himself and his family should his regime become
     unslavageable. This is upsetting many Alawites who are coming to realize
     that Asad will abandon them. If so, they reason that it would be
     suicidal to continue to win the wrath of the Sunnis. Walid al-Muallim
     offered to resign but Asad turned down his request. This is a clear
     indicator that many of Asad's men are realizing that they are putting a
     vain fight against the burgeoning uprising.

     The Iranians are weighing in the situation in Syria very carefully. One
     must read beyond the public statements of the Iranians, especially
     ayatollah Khamenei. Both Khamenei and Ahmadinejad have concluded that
     Asad's regime cannot be rescued. It is perfectly understood that the
     regime in Damascus will fall along lines similar to the Libyan model.
     There will have to be a coup in Damascus, be it a military or political
     one.

     One must not dismiss the pragmatism of Khamenei. Iran appears to be
     willing to use its influence in Syria to stage a coup, provided that it
     is able to ensure that the new leadership will continue to pursue
     excellent relations with Tehran. The Iranians have approached the
     Americans on this. In the past, Iran collaborated with the U.S. on the
     ouster of Saddam Hussein and Iran won big in Iraq. The Iranians would
     not mind working again on ousting Asad if they can secure good results
     in Syria. Syria's contiguity to Iraq allows Iran to play a direct role
     in the affairs of Damascus.

     The Iranians feel they need to act on Syria soon because the Turks have
     their own plans for Syria and are not coordinating with the Iranians. He
     says the Turks are moving slowly but systematically. Iran does not want
     to allow Turkey to take over Syria. Whereas the Turks are coordinating
     with the Brotherhood and the FSA, the Iranians prefer a palace coup in
     damascus in order to maintain their ties with Asad's successors. What is
     delaying action in Syria is the fact that the U.S. has not yet decided
     on the shape of the post-Asad political system. Nevertheless, he insists
     that Asad's regime will fall, although the future of Syria after the
     regime change remains nebulous.

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com

   --
   Nick Grinstead
   Regional Monitor
   STRATFOR
   Beirut, Lebanon
   +96171969463
</description>
    <date>2011-12-13 17:09:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/888840_re-alpha-insight-iran-us-syria-iran-reaching-out-to-us-on.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>nick.grinstead@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>888867</id>
    <title>Moscow attack 
</title>
    <description>&gt;From TrapWire --

 

 

On a professional note: Brilliant choice by the terrorists to hit the
international area of the airport. The mix of nationalities in the body
count is guaranteed to bring world-wide media attention, and cause a
ripple (at least for a little while) within the expat business community
in Moscow -- at a time when the GoR is desperate for foreign investment.
Couple more of these, and business will start to slow down there.

 
</description>
    <date>2011-01-26 17:03:10</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/888867_moscow-attack-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>891483</id>
    <title>Re: Albania Update
</title>
    <description>   Yes, please rep. If we are allowed.

   Don't source. Just say STRATFOR source in country.

   On 1/27/11 11:46 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     reliable enough info to rep?

     On 1/27/11 11:42 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

 &gt;From TrapWire (protect source):

 The protest of the opposition will be held tomorrow at 14.00. It will be
 only in Tirana,

 

 

 


 --
 Marko Papic
 Analyst - Europe
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
</description>
    <date>2011-01-27 18:49:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/891483_re-albania-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bayless.parsley@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>891529</id>
    <title>Re: Albania
</title>
    <description>   According to the AP, "The Prosecutor General's office said arrest warrants
   had been issued for six officers of the National Guard, army troops under
   Interior Ministry command who guard government institutions and senior
   officials."

   On 1/22/11 9:42 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     Is there a chance The cops were not actually the ones who killed the
     three? I didnt see any reports or photos indicating the riot police even
     had guns. And the type of pistol used to fire the rounds was listed in
     an article yesterday. I know nothing about guns so am of no use here,
     but would it be helpful to know The kind of firearm used?

     Either way, doesnt matter. All that matters is the political angle and
     the fact that the opposition perceives the police to be culpable

     Btw artillery?!

     On 2011 Jan 22, at 08:51, Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

         From TrapWire contact (former CIA clandestine officer)

       Not sure if STRATFOR's following events there -- but I chatted with
       some
       contacts in Tirana and tomorrow (Sunday) protests are expected to be
       even larger than yesterday's -- with many in the crowd bent on
       retaliation for the police killing of three protestors. (As always,
       rumor mills are in overdrive in the Balkans with claims being made
       that
       the cops targeted these protestors for assassination. No proof yet
       that
       that's the case. Having dealt with Albanian cops for three years, I
       can
       assure you though they don't need much pushing to draw their weapons.
       They actually fired artillery rounds onto protestors during the chaos
       of
       '97). Tough times in Tirana right now.

       Mike

 --
 Alex Hayward
 STRATFOR Research Intern
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 18:44:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/891529_re-albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alex.hayward@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>893516</id>
    <title>Albania 
</title>
    <description>   From TrapWire in response to Marko's questions --
    

   Fred -- Just in. Haven't had time to give a good scrub/spell check etc. so
   might be a bit raw. (His English is excellent, but not perfect).  M

   ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
      

    

    

    

               1. Any thoughts on what repercussions unrest in Albania could
   have for the region as a whole?

    

               Instability in Albania generally means instability within the
   Albanian diaspora in the region.

    

   .         Kosova: Just came out of general elections and is now facing an
   internal crises . The winning party does not have enough votes to elect a
   PM or create a new government. At the same time, the leadership of the
   winning party has been accused for war crimes and trafficking in human
   organs by a Swiss reporter. These issues have endangered the current
   political process towards Kosovo independence. Negotiations with Serbia
   are now on hold. An unstable political situation in Albania will be a big
   loss for Kosovo. Kosovo has no representation in international
   institutions and Albania is her biggest supporter and ally regarding
   Kosovo foreign policy.  A crisis in Albania will make the dialogue between
   Kosovo and Serbia, which is seeking a division of northern Kosovo.

    

   .         Macedonia: Our neighboring country has a population of 30%
   Albanians, who have been in constant conflict with the Macedonian
   government regarding their rights as a minority. Macedonian-Albanians are
   divided in to two groups:  one that is more liberal and has assimilated
   into Macedonian society; and the other a much more radical group that is
   in conflict Macedonian policies. Add to this Macedonia's on-going conflict
   with Greece, and one could speculate that any major crisis in Albania will
   only compound the problems inside Macedonia -- particularly for those
   Albanians seeking greater rights inside Macedonia. There is a precedence
   for this problem during the 1997 conflict in Albania.

    

   .         Greece: Our only neighboring country with EU membership is still
   going through a very bad political and economic crises itself. There are
   almost 1.5 million Albanians living in Greece -- many are illegal
   immigrants working illegally. Another crises in Albania could likely fuel
   another mass exodus to Greece (and Italy) -- particularly now that
   Albanians can finally travel without visas in Europe.   

    

   2.  After 1997 anarchy, weapons flowed across the borders to Kosovo and
   Macedonia. Any chance that another crisis has an effect on neighboring
   countries?

    

               In my opinion, it is unlikely the current situation will
   deteriorate to the point of 1997, which was fueled by economic collapse
   rather than only political differences. Albanians still have strong
   memories and feelings about this period, and would likely try to avoid a
   repeat...particularly as the only groups who will profit from another
   crises would be the weapons, drugs, and fuel traffickers .

          

    

               3.  What is Berisha's role in neighboring Kosovo and
   Macedonia. Does he have influence with Kosovo leadership? Or Macedonian
   Albanian leadership?

    

               Generally speaking, Berisha does not have much of a role in
   the region. He continues to be viewed as a model of the old leadership.
   Clearly, Kosovo will always          need the support of the Albanian PM
   and his government; however, many Kosovars remember that Berisha gave only
   lukewarm support to the KLA, and was   believed to have profited
   personally by allowing fuel shipments into Serbia and Montenegro, despite
   the NATO embargo at the time. Berisha is still viewed as            
   having too close of ties to Serbia -- one of his closest contacts is Damir
   Fasllic, a character who is believed to have contacts at the highest
   levels of the Serbian           government. Berisha does not appear to
   have particularly strong ties to Macedonia and, with the loss of
   Jukanovic, probably has limited influence in Montenegro as          well

            

    

                4.  If there is a change in government to Edvin Rama, would
   it in any way change the situation in Albania or region?

    

               Edvin Rama is the leader of the Albanian opposition Socialist
   Party -- which represents about 50 % of the Albanian voters. Rama is known
   as a head-strong and       somewhat radical figure amongst the
   international community in Albania. He is not very good at dialoguing --
   often creating situations that neither side can win.           Despite
   these weaknesses, Rama represents the "modern" leader that many Albanians
   have been hoping for since 1990. His work in modernizing and cleaning-up
               the capital has made him very popular, and given him the image
   of someone who can get things done for the people (He has twice been
   re-elected as mayor).          Rama's popularity and modern thinking has
   been commented on favorably by many EU leaders and representatives.

    
</description>
    <date>2011-01-26 01:09:57</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/893516_albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>894908</id>
    <title>Re: Albania - update 
</title>
    <description>Thank you again.



On Jan 27, 2011, at 7:30 AM, Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

&gt; From TrapWire --
&gt; 
&gt; ------------------------------------------------------------------------
&gt; 
&gt; Source advised no change yet (as of 0400 this morning) in Rama's planned
&gt; protest.
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; Source is meeting with someone close to the opposition leadership today
&gt; and will advise if any change.  M
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; 
</description>
    <date>2011-01-27 14:38:06</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/894908_re-albania-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>894997</id>
    <title>[alpha] Fw: Oslo
</title>
    <description>   Trapwire

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:00:28 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Oslo

   My money's on a Libyan connection.

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 18:04:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/894997_-alpha-fw-oslo-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>895080</id>
    <title>[alpha] Fw: Oslo
</title>
    <description>   Trapwire

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:18:40 -0500 (CDT)
   To: burton@stratfor.com&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Oslo
   99 percent sure. Some reports already confirming.
    
   From: burton@stratfor.com [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, July 22, 2011 12:15 PM
   To: Michael Maness
   Subject: Re: Oslo
    
   Think it was a bomb?

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:00:28 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Oslo

   My money's on a Libyan connection.

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 18:31:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/895080_-alpha-fw-oslo-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>895998</id>
    <title>falklands so far
</title>
    <description>   Summary

    

   On the twenty-fifth anniversary of the Falklands War, Argentina has cut
   off oil exploration cooperation with the UK in the area and is ramping up
   rhetoric claiming full sovereignty over the islands and their resources. 
   President Kirchner likely intends for this to serve as an outlet for
   domestic unrest that might otherwise sour prospects for upcoming
   presidential elections in October.  This unrest includes strikes and
   protests due to inflation/wage concerns, political feuds and demands for
   stronger investigations into past government atrocities.  His
   administration will maintain its provocative rhetoric for the rest of the
   year, but steer clear of actual confrontation with the UK.

    

   Analysis

    

   Argentina announced late March 27 that it is withdrawing from an oil and
   gas exploration partnership with the UK around the Falkland Islands
   (Spanish: Malvinas), territory contested by both countries in a war
   twenty-five years ago.  Simultaneously, government officials are loudly
   discussing the country's claim to sovereignty over the area, an issue that
   has not been spotlighted for some time.

    

   This is a calculated decision on the part of the Argentine government,
   designed to channel public discontent away from domestic problems where
   the government might be to blame, and towards a foreign object where the
   government represents the peoples' own nationalist passions.  This
   suggests that Argentina will take a hard stance on the issue for several
   months, but will avoid taking it so far that it would jeopardize its
   diplomatic relationship with the UK.

    

   Argentina will have presidential elections in October, and President
   Nestor Kirchner is widely expected to be reelected if he chooses to run;
   otherwise his wife Cristina, currently a Senator, is expected to succeed
   her husband.  The Kirchners have enjoyed widespread popularity over the
   past three years while overseeing sustained 8 percent economic growth
   rates, pulling the country out of its dismal economic collapse in 2001.  

    

   Yet beneath the surface, discontent has been brewing. 

    

    
</description>
    <date>2007-03-28 19:48:04</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 22:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/895998_falklands-so-far-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>kornfield@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>araceli.santos@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>896653</id>
    <title>Re: Albania
</title>
    <description>Yeah, it'd be interesting to know the type of pistol used in the killings a=
nd then compare that to what the albanian police use - but i doubt the alba=
nian police use a standardized sidearm, so it'd be difficult to say anythin=
g conclusive.

Sent from my iPhone

On Jan 22, 2011, at 9:42, Bayless Parsley &lt;bayless.parsley@stratfor.com&gt; wr=
ote:

&gt; Is there a chance The cops were not actually the ones who killed the thre=
e? I didnt see any reports or photos indicating the riot police even had gu=
ns. And the type of pistol used to fire the rounds was listed in an article=
 yesterday. I know nothing about guns so am of no use here, but would it be=
 helpful to know The kind of firearm used?
&gt;=20
&gt; Either way, doesnt matter. All that matters is the political angle and th=
e fact that the opposition perceives the police to be culpable
&gt;=20
&gt; Btw artillery?!
&gt;=20
&gt; On 2011 Jan 22, at 08:51, Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:
&gt;=20
&gt;&gt;&gt; From TrapWire contact (former CIA clandestine officer)
&gt;&gt;=20
&gt;&gt; Not sure if STRATFOR's following events there -- but I chatted with some
&gt;&gt; contacts in Tirana and tomorrow (Sunday) protests are expected to be
&gt;&gt; even larger than yesterday's -- with many in the crowd bent on
&gt;&gt; retaliation for the police killing of three protestors. (As always,
&gt;&gt; rumor mills are in overdrive in the Balkans with claims being made that
&gt;&gt; the cops targeted these protestors for assassination. No proof yet that
&gt;&gt; that's the case. Having dealt with Albanian cops for three years, I can
&gt;&gt; assure you though they don=E2=80=99t need much pushing to draw their wea=
pons.
&gt;&gt; They actually fired artillery rounds onto protestors during the chaos of
&gt;&gt; '97). Tough times in Tirana right now.
&gt;&gt;=20
&gt;&gt; Mike
&gt;&gt;=20
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 18:28:52</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/896653_re-albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ben.west@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>896885</id>
    <title>Re: [latam] [CT] How Guatemala's fragile democracy nearly went
	`narco'
</title>
    <description>   These types of exercises are very common and last only a short time.
     There is no residual troop presence.

    

   There may be some private security guys running around, but no USMC,
   especially with the USG restrictions on doing business with the
   Guatemalans. We are not even allowed to sell them guns. Providing US
   Marines to protect a Canadian company when we are already stretched thin
   for ground troops is a non-starter.

    

    

    

    

    

   From: ct-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:ct-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf
   Of Colby Martin
   Sent: Tuesday, July 20, 2010 4:01 PM
   To: CT AOR
   Cc: 'LATAM'
   Subject: Re: [CT] How Guatemala's fragile democracy nearly went `narco'

    

   I was in Nebaj during this time and although you can say some of it was
   well deserved paranoia on the side of the Guatemalans, having a 1000 US
   marines in San Marcos while there were riots and gun fights over the
   Marlin mine was reason for consternation.  The projects had been going on
   since 1995 but the marines came with support troops and no one believed
   they were there just to build schools and take care of patients.  I do not
   believe they were there only for humanitarian projects, especially after
   sitting in on meetings of the people's movement against the Marlin mine. 
   Goldcorp is a Canadian company but as the article below states the
   protection of the mine was secondary, and achieved by just being a
   presence in the area.  More importantly it gives the locals a sense that
   US marines are benign and there to help.  Basic counterinsurgency
   tactics.  To add to the general fear of the population, General Otto Perez
   Molina gave a campaign speech in Nebaj (where he was commander during many
   of the massacres of Ixil Mayans) where he bussed in hundreds of supporters
   to hear him speak and there were snipers on the roof of the police
   building across from the town square where he was speaking and security
   forces everywhere in the town.  It  is accepted as fact in this area that
   US forces or proxies are active in the area, and I have met more than a
   few dudes in the mountain(ish) passes of Northwestern Guatemala who I
   would bet my last dollar were not your average hiker.  

   US Deploys Troops Across Latin America In 'Goodwill' Gesture
   http://gsn.civiblog.org/blog/Guatemala/_archives/2007/2/3/2706052.html
   by Patrick on Sat 03 Feb 2007 04:58 PM GMT  |  Permanent Link  |  Cosmos
   1,000 US marines are coming to Guatemala to carry out humanitarian work in
   San Marcos. The announcement received a bit of coverage in the press back
   in November when Congress approved the move, but little now with the
   programmed deployment starting in February [there's now been an article in
   Prensa Libre 13-02-2007]. The US Ambassador James Derham described the
   reason for the initiative in a statement as:

   "This humanitarian exercise provides the United States the opportunity to
   deploy and train Military Reserve and National Guard troops."

   The Frente Nacional de Lucha called the arrival of US troops in Guatemala
   a threat to peace. They quoted Sandino Asturias, Centro de Estudios de
   Guatemala (CEG) who disputed how 'humanitarian' the intentions are:

   "Para nadie es un secreto el interes geopolitico de los Estados Unidos en
   la region y en particular en Guatemala. Aqui lo grave es que en esencia se
   trata del uso del territorio guatemalteco para entrenar tropas militares
   extranjeras. Eso es una flagrante violacion a la soberania nacional. El
   hecho que lo disfracen de obras sociales y de infraestructura tiene aun
   otro objetivo perverso: el acostumbrar a la poblacion a la presencia de
   las tropas norteamericanas y que de alguna forma esta sea aceptable por el
   publico en general."

   Whatever the truth it's not hard to be cynical when this same programme of
   'Nuevos Horizontes' is repeated all across the region each year since
   1995: Dominican Republic, Peru, Nicaragua, Panama, El Salvador, etc. Given
   the timing- just in the run up to the elections, let's hope there's not a
   repeat of interference the US demonstrated in Nicaragua (according to the
   OAS) last year.

   Background

   Nuevos Horizontes/ New Horizons is an engineer humanitarian civic
   assistance exercise designed to give training to U.S. military units in
   civilian construction or medical care services. Participating U.S. troops
   build basic infrastructure (roads, bridges, schools, wells, etc.) and
   provide medical, dental and veterinary services. Information from a
   'Civilian's guide to U.S. defence and security assistance to Latin
   America'.

   &gt;From Guatemala to Colombia: The Regional Integration of Gold and Bullets
   is an article in ZNET by Sandra Cuffe that analyzes the role of
   militarization as a part of the control of territory, natural resources
   and people, and raises doubts about the so-called war on drug trafficking
   in mining districts.  A comparison is drawn between Plan Colombia and the
   current situation in the gold mining region of San Marcos, Guatemala.

   More on US interference in the Nicaraguan election from Quest for Peace.

   It's also worth noting the irony that these humanitarian military
   manoeuvres are taking place while a US court is showing great 'humanity'
   jailing, on counts of trespass, peaceful protestors against WHINSEC
   (previously known as the School of the Americas) blamed for military-led
   human rights abuses across Latin America. Many graduates of the school
   trained in the US were from the Guatemalan military and are amongst those
   cited by various reports and legal actions for their responsibility in
   gross human rights violations.

   Marines Provide Guatemala Mission Support for Continuing Promise 2008
   http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2008/06/mil-080602-nns09.htm

   scott stewart wrote:

   There are already US marines on the ground there protecting the Montana
   mines.  

    

   Say what?

    

    

    

    

   From: ct-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:ct-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf
   Of Colby Martin
   Sent: Tuesday, July 20, 2010 9:26 AM
   To: CT AOR
   Cc: LATAM
   Subject: Re: [CT] How Guatemala's fragile democracy nearly went `narco'

    

   This ties into what we were talking about with Colom.  Everyone blames the
   wife for drug connections but there is no difference.  One theory about
   the office being tapped was that it wasn't by drug traffickers but by us. 
   I am trying to get everyone to talk to me about this but there is so much
   fear there now.  I really think we should be looking into whether Otto
   Perez Molina is the US backed choice for president there and although he
   has connections to the drug trade (who doesn't) he would be the candidate
   to get into line with Calderon and the drug war in return for
   financial/military support.  There are already US marines on the ground
   there protecting the Montana mines.  

   Alex Posey wrote:

   How Guatemala's fragile democracy nearly went `narco'
    
   Earlier this year, Guatemala nearly came under mobsters' control -- but an
   outspoken former Spanish judge yanked the nation from the precipice.

   BY TIM JOHNSON
   McClatchy News Service

   GUATEMALA CITY -- For a 17-day period that ended last month, Guatemala
   seemed to be falling under the direct control of suspected mobsters. A
   lawyer leading a posse of unsavory characters became the attorney general
   and started dismantling the state's legal apparatus.

   Central America's most populous country teetered on the edge of ``going
   narco.''

   Although the appointment of Conrado Reyes as attorney general has now been
   annulled and Guatemala's fragile democracy survived the ordeal, it's still
   on a tightrope, advocates for democracy and human rights say.

   A rugged coffee-growing nation of 13.5 million people, 40 percent of them
   disenfranchised Mayan Indians, Guatemala has largely been off the world's
   radar screen. But as U.S. anti-narcotics aid poured into Mexico and
   Colombia, bad guys flooded the region in between.

   Guatemala became a prime destination. While institutions of state appear
   to function, corruption is rampant, and narcotics are pervasive. Some 275
   to 385 tons of South American cocaine transits Guatemala each year, almost
   enough to satisfy all U.S. demand, according to a March estimate by the
   State Department.

   Syndicates from neighboring Mexico brought violence to the steps of power.
   Cartel enforcers demanding an end to a crackdown on organized crime dumped
   four decapitated human heads on the steps of Congress and other downtown
   Guatemala City sites on June 10.

   Drug gangs operate largely unhindered. As many as seven of Guatemala's 22
   provinces may not be under government control, making it ``one of the
   world's most dangerous countries,'' according to a report June 22 by the
   International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based organization.

   Impunity is the rule. A weak judicial system keeps most of Guatemala's
   corrupt politicians, hired assassins, arms traffickers and drug dealers
   out of prison. It got so bad that the United Nations set up a special
   commission in 2006 to help Guatemala dismantle its vast clandestine
   networks of organized crime, and by doing so, gave Guatemalans hope for
   justice.

   It remains a distant goal. Even though President Alvaro Colom's
   administration has sacked more than 2,000 police officers from the
   national force, corruption corrodes the pillars of state. The last two
   national police chiefs are in jail on narcotics charges. Two former
   interior ministers are fugitives.

   Leading the U.N.'s International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala
   was Carlos Castresana, a hard-charging and outspoken former Spanish judge.
   At high personal cost, he yanked Guatemala back from the precipice last
   month in an extraordinary chain of events.

   A starting point for the drama occurred at noon May 25 when Colom
   administered the oath of office as attorney general to Reyes, a lawyer. At
   the time, few suspected that Reyes might be fronting for criminal
   interests. After all, he'd come out on top in a selection process of 29
   candidates led by the deans of the nation's nine law schools, the chief of
   its Supreme Court and two other top legal officials.

   Scratch a little further, though, and there's more evidence of Guatemala's
   pervasive corruption. Legal reforms earlier this decade gave the deans of
   law schools an outsized role in selecting judges, magistrates and the
   attorney general, so the academic posts go to those who are backed by deep
   pockets and sometimes have shady backgrounds.

   `THEY SPEND BUCKETS'

   At the only national university, San Carlos, lobbying for the post of dean
   of the law school is intense, said Eduardo Stein, a former Guatemalan vice
   president who coordinates a truth commission that's looking into Honduras'
   2009 removal of its president. ``They spend buckets of money in parties,
   in gifts and in T-shirts. It's like a political campaign,'' Stein said.

   When the selection committee met to mull over the six finalists for
   attorney general, it gathered for only 15 minutes, a sign of an
   under-the-table agreement.

   Still, no one thought that Reyes would be so blatant as to take a
   suspected mobster to his swearing-in. To the surprise of attendees,
   standing nearby was Juan Roberto Garrido Perez, a former army captain
   whose U.S. visa had been revoked because of suspicions of links to
   narcotics trafficking. Garrido's shady connections are said to go beyond
   drugs. Castresana later would accuse Garrido of links to alien smuggling,
   the murder of a human rights activist's son and a 2006 heist of $9 million
   at the Guatemala City airport, where Garrido was then the security chief.
   During the heist, security cameras went on the blink.

   Once sworn in as attorney general, Reyes seized personal control of
   criminal investigations and the most sensitive bureau of the Public
   Ministry, the Special Methods Unit, which handles wiretaps of major drug
   traffickers, corrupt army officers, tycoons and politicians.

   SWEPT AWAY

   Within days of Reyes' takeover, more than a dozen seasoned prosecutors
   who'd been handling sensitive cases involving political murders,
   corruption and drug trafficking were swept out of their jobs, imperiling
   cases such as a pending trial of former President Alfonso Portillo
   (2000-04) on charges of embezzling $15.7 million.

   Asked why he sacked the prosecutors, Reyes told reporters: ``They weren't
   doing anything.''

   With key prosecutors gone, and suspected mafiosos calling the shots,
   however, Castresana saw his work coming undone.

   In desperation, he resigned June 7, issuing a broadside against Reyes:
   ``He is not the prosecutor that Guatemala deserves. He has ties with
   illicit organizations. His election was arranged by law firms that defend
   drug traffickers.''

   Foreign governments leaned heavily on Guatemala, and its Constitutional
   Court felt compelled to act. On June 11, it annulled Reyes' selection as
   attorney general. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon named a renowned
   Costa Rican corruption buster, Francisco Dall'Anese, to replace Castresana
   as the head of the U.N.-backed impunity commission, whose mandate expires
   next year.

   ``Guatemala is at an inflection point,'' said Helen Mack, the head of the
   Myrna Mack Foundation, named for her anthropologist sister, who was slain
   by an army death squad in 1990. Unless a variety of social forces act
   urgently to protect the rule of law, she said, ``we will lose the state.''

   Read more:
   http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/07/19/v-fullstory/1737894/how-a-fragile-democracy-nearly.html#ixzz0uEQhis51

 --

 Alex Posey

 Tactical Analyst

 STRATFOR

 alex.posey@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-07-20 23:17:51</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 06:00:00</releasedate>
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    <files>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>897014</id>
    <title>Re: Albania Update
</title>
    <description>   reliable enough info to rep?

   On 1/27/11 11:42 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

 &gt;From TrapWire (protect source):

 The protest of the opposition will be held tomorrow at 14.00. It will be
 only in Tirana,

 

 

 
</description>
    <date>2011-01-27 18:46:26</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/897014_re-albania-update-.html</permalink>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>897220</id>
    <title>Re: Meeting
</title>
    <description>   I'll forward that to the marketing list, Daniel - it's a good idea to put
   in the hopper. Thanks!

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Daniel Ben-Nun" &lt;daniel.ben-nun@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: friedman@att.blackberry.net, "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, June 3, 2010 3:40:50 PM
   Subject: Re: Meeting

   Every time I hear you guys say the phrase "&lt;insert name&gt; reads STRATFOR" I
   think to myself...wow, that phrase could make a great marketing campaign.

   Just think of the bumper stickers you could make for our readers all over
   the world...

   Obama reads STRATFOR
   Serbia reads STRATFOR
   Putin reads STRATFOR
   DavutoA:*lu reads STRATFOR
   Turkey reads STRATFOR
   Israel reads STRATFOR
   US ARMY reads STRATFOR etc. etc.

   This list goes on. I'm not sure we can use politicians' names, but country
   names could work well too and all you have to do is offer them on the
   website.

   Sounds like a pretty inexpensive and catchy marketing campaign to me.
   That's my two cents.

   On 6/3/10 10:47 AM, George Friedman wrote:

 Didn't accept the idea that the military is pro-israeli. Denied that he wanted an opportunity to break with israel. Nothing serious. But damn he reads us.
 Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

 -----Original Message-----
 From: Reva Bhalla &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
 Date: Thu, 3 Jun 2010 10:44:24
 To: &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;; Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
 Subject: Re: Meeting

 what mistakes did he point out?


 On Jun 3, 2010, at 10:43 AM, George Friedman wrote:

  

 Just met with turkish foreign minister. One thing you should know.
 He reads stratfor and knows what we say on turkey in detail. And
 points out mistakes.
 Just thought you should know. Now don't freeze up or anything.
 Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
    

  

 --
 Daniel Ben-Nun
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>897650</id>
    <title>Albania Update 
</title>
    <description>&gt;From TrapWire (protect source): 

The protest of the opposition will be held tomorrow at 14.00. It will be
only in Tirana,

 

 

 
</description>
    <date>2011-01-27 18:42:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>898587</id>
    <title>Draft of Handbook Chapter on Organization
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2010-08-08 20:53:46</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 09:00:00</releasedate>
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      <file><path>attach/62/62169_Handbook--Organization.doc</path><size>49152</size><md5></md5><sha1>762d2d8dad248aaf9e80fff1537c12b2bd5a943b</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>901056</id>
    <title>[alpha] source evaluations - must read
</title>
    <description>   This is the first in several emails on our sourcing and insight
   collections.  To begin with, we will be meeting with everyone who has
   sources to evaluate them on the criteria and scoring below.  I will be in
   touch with everyone who has a source list within the next few weeks.  If
   you have sources but no source list, then you need to create one.  I will
   give details on this in a separate email. 

   All of those who need to update or create their list need to do so by
   Monday and send them to both myself and Anya.  If you need a source code
   number range, email me and I will get this set up for you so you can start
   the process.  For analysts with compiled lists with uncoded sources,
   please code these ASAP unless they are genuinely a one-off and then give
   an explanation.

   In the meantime, it would be best if everyone with sources start to
   evaluate each source by looking at least the past five insights and start
   to score them based on the criteria and scoring below so you are not
   scrambling when we are ready to set up an evaluation with you.  Also, from
   here on out, start to think about sources with these criteria and scoring
   in mind.  This will be the first of many periodic insight evaluations so
   its best for everyone to get acquainted with this method.

   For Watch Officers, please also start to think along these lines when you
   are reading insight.  In the future we will also look to you as objective
   source evaluators.  Also, please start to read the insight carefully and
   comment on it the same as you would a piece from OS.  As Reva said in our
   meeting today, we are starting to refocus on intel and insight.  As Watch
   Officers, you are well placed to comment on any anomalies presented in
   insights and compare it with what is being said in the media.

   If there are any questions or concerns, please ask.

   Jen

                               Sourcing Criteria

   The following are the proposed criteria for analyzing both sources and
   insight.

    

   1.     Source Timeliness

   2.     Source Accessibility/Position

   3.     Source Availability

   4.     Insight Credibility

   5.     Insight Uniqueness

    

    

   Source Timeliness:  This is the average grade on how long this particular
   source turns around tasks and replies to inquiries.  It may change but is
   more of a static indicator.

    

   Source Accessibility: Accessibility weighs the source's position to have
   certain knowledge in a particular field.  So, for example, if we are
   looking for energy insight and the source is an official in an energy
   agency, his or her Accessibility would be ranked higher than if s/he was a
   banker giving insight on energy.  While we would welcome a banker giving
   his/her insight, a good source may not have a high accessibility ranking
   if they aren't in a position to offer reliable insight on a certain topic.
   The source's access to decision makers, specific training or education in
   the desired topic area, specific knowledge of events/situations/incidents
   can also be considered.

    

   Source Availability:  How often can we go to this source?  Are they
   someone we can tap daily, weekly, monthly, yearly?

    

   Insight Credibility:  This is our assessment of the veracity of the
   insight offered.  Here we need to consider whether or not this is
   disinformation, speculation, correct data or knowledgeable interpretation.
   Any bias that the source is displaying or any specific viewpoints or
   personal background the source is using in the assessment provided should
   also be considered.

    

   Insight Uniqueness:  Is this insight something that could be found in OS? 
   If it is but the analysis of the information is unique, it would still
   have a high uniqueness ranking.  Or, if it is concrete data, but is
   something that is only offered to industry insiders, i.e. stats that
   aren't published but that aren't secret, it would still have a high
   uniqueness score.

    

    

                                    Scoring

   All of the above factors will be scored on an A-F scale, with A being
   exemplary and F being useless. 

    

   Source Timeliness:

   A = turnaround within 24 hours

   B = turnaround within 48 hours

   C = turnaround within a week

   D = turnaround within a month

   F = lucky to receive a reply at all

    

   Source Accessibility:

   A = Someone with intimate knowledge of the particular insight

   B = Someone within the industry but whose knowledge of the topic is not
   exact (e.g. if we were asking someone in the oil industry about natural
   gas)

   C = Someone working close to the industry who doesn't have intimate
   knowledge of a particular topic but can speak to it intelligently (e.g. a
   financial consultant asked to gauge the movement of the stock market)

   D = Someone who may know a country but doesn't have any concrete insight
   into a particular topic but can offer rumors and discussions heard on the
   topic

   F = Someone who has no knowledge of a particular industry at all

    

   Source Availability:

   A = Available pretty much whenever

   B = Can tap around once a week

   C = Can tap about once a month

   D = Can tap only several times a year

   F = Very limited availability

    

   Insight Credibility:

   A = We can take this information to the bank

   B = Good insight but maybe not entirely precise

   C = Insight is only partially true

   D = There may be some interest in the insight, but it is mostly false or
   just pure speculation.

   F = Likely to be disinformation

    

   Insight Uniqueness:

   A = Can't be found anywhere else

   B = Can only be found in limited circles

   C = Insight can be found in OS, but the source has an interesting
   take/analysis

   D = Insight can be found in OS, but still may not be common knowledge

   F = Insight is accessible in numerous locations

    

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>904093</id>
    <title>Re: Albania
</title>
    <description>   He was, until the anarchy.

   I have heard that he in fact profited immensely from the beginnings of KLA
   operations in Kosovo and that he aided them greatly. But that is not at
   all exclusive to this insight. That he then made his money smuggling
   gasoline to Serbia during embargo also makes sense.

   On 1/25/11 7:27 PM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     many Kosovars remember that Berisha gave only lukewarm support to the
     KLA, and was   believed to have profited personally by allowing fuel
     shipments into Serbia and Montenegro, despite the NATO embargo at the
     time.
     so i guess that means the weapons flow in 1997 was not b/c of anything
     Berisha did (err, wait, was he in power back then? my Albanian history
     is getting all jumbled)

     On 1/25/11 6:09 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

       From TrapWire in response to Marko's questions --
        

       Fred -- Just in. Haven't had time to give a good scrub/spell check
       etc. so might be a bit raw. (His English is excellent, but not
       perfect).  M

       ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
          

        

        

        

                   1. Any thoughts on what repercussions unrest in Albania
       could have for the region as a whole?

        

                   Instability in Albania generally means instability within
       the Albanian diaspora in the region.

        

       .         Kosova: Just came out of general elections and is now facing
       an internal crises . The winning party does not have enough votes to
       elect a PM or create a new government. At the same time, the
       leadership of the winning party has been accused for war crimes and
       trafficking in human organs by a Swiss reporter. These issues have
       endangered the current political process towards Kosovo independence.
       Negotiations with Serbia are now on hold. An unstable political
       situation in Albania will be a big loss for Kosovo. Kosovo has no
       representation in international institutions and Albania is her
       biggest supporter and ally regarding Kosovo foreign policy.  A crisis
       in Albania will make the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia, which is
       seeking a division of northern Kosovo.

        

       .         Macedonia: Our neighboring country has a population of 30%
       Albanians, who have been in constant conflict with the Macedonian
       government regarding their rights as a minority. Macedonian-Albanians
       are divided in to two groups:  one that is more liberal and has
       assimilated into Macedonian society; and the other a much more radical
       group that is in conflict Macedonian policies. Add to this Macedonia's
       on-going conflict with Greece, and one could speculate that any major
       crisis in Albania will only compound the problems inside Macedonia --
       particularly for those Albanians seeking greater rights inside
       Macedonia. There is a precedence for this problem during the 1997
       conflict in Albania.

        

       .         Greece: Our only neighboring country with EU membership is
       still going through a very bad political and economic crises itself.
       There are almost 1.5 million Albanians living in Greece -- many are
       illegal immigrants working illegally. Another crises in Albania could
       likely fuel another mass exodus to Greece (and Italy) -- particularly
       now that Albanians can finally travel without visas in Europe.   

        

       2.  After 1997 anarchy, weapons flowed across the borders to Kosovo
       and Macedonia. Any chance that another crisis has an effect on
       neighboring countries?

        

                   In my opinion, it is unlikely the current situation will
       deteriorate to the point of 1997, which was fueled by economic
       collapse rather than only political differences. Albanians still have
       strong memories and feelings about this period, and would likely try
       to avoid a repeat...particularly as the only groups who will profit
       from another crises would be the weapons, drugs, and fuel traffickers
       .

              

        

                   3.  What is Berisha's role in neighboring Kosovo and
       Macedonia. Does he have influence with Kosovo leadership? Or
       Macedonian Albanian leadership?

        

                   Generally speaking, Berisha does not have much of a role
       in the region. He continues to be viewed as a model of the old
       leadership. Clearly, Kosovo will always          need the support of
       the Albanian PM and his government; however, many Kosovars remember
       that Berisha gave only lukewarm support to the KLA, and was   believed
       to have profited personally by allowing fuel shipments into Serbia and
       Montenegro, despite the NATO embargo at the time. Berisha is still
       viewed as             having too close of ties to Serbia -- one of his
       closest contacts is Damir Fasllic, a character who is believed to have
       contacts at the highest levels of the Serbian           government.
       Berisha does not appear to have particularly strong ties to Macedonia
       and, with the loss of Jukanovic, probably has limited influence in
       Montenegro as          well

                

        

                    4.  If there is a change in government to Edvin Rama,
       would it in any way change the situation in Albania or region?

        

                   Edvin Rama is the leader of the Albanian opposition
       Socialist Party -- which represents about 50 % of the Albanian voters.
       Rama is known as a head-strong and       somewhat radical figure
       amongst the international community in Albania. He is not very good at
       dialoguing -- often creating situations that neither side can win.
                 Despite these weaknesses, Rama represents the "modern"
       leader that many Albanians have been hoping for since 1990. His work
       in modernizing and cleaning-up             the capital has made him
       very popular, and given him the image of someone who can get things
       done for the people (He has twice been re-elected as mayor).         
       Rama's popularity and modern thinking has been commented on favorably
       by many EU leaders and representatives.

        

 --
 Marko Papic
 Analyst - Europe
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
</description>
    <date>2011-01-26 02:40:42</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/904093_re-albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bayless.parsley@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>904949</id>
    <title>Re: [latam] INTRO: Falklands/Malvinas drilling
</title>
    <description>   er, weak.
   look forward to seeing what Allison and Paulo can collect on this. This
   could make a good analysis on Brazil's FP outlook for the region
   On Sep 21, 2010, at 2:10 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     so brazil is establishing itself as a protector of Argentina?
     interesting...
     i guess they can afford to do so if they perceive Argentina as being
     that week
     On Sep 21, 2010, at 2:09 PM, Paulo Gregoire wrote:

       Yes I will try to get insight. Brazil has mentioned a few times that
       the South Atlantic is a  blue amazon  and that no northern country
       should be occupying it.  Since Lula came to power Brazil has shown
       signs of support to Argentina in the Malvinas issue.
       They do not want to have the UK next to the pre-salt reserves.

       Paulo Gregoire
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
       To: "LatAm AOR" &lt;latam@stratfor.com&gt;
       Sent: Wednesday, September 22, 2010 3:37:57 AM
       Subject: Re: [latam] INTRO: Falklands/Malvinas drilling

       This is very strange that Petrobras is involved (also interesting that
       Spain is backing Argentina up).
       Paulo, can you try to collect insight on what is going on here?
       Petrobras participating in this project is a pretty strong show of
       support for Argentina in a dispute where Argentina has looked
       completely helpless.  Why is Brazil/Petrobras doing this?
       On Sep 21, 2010, at 1:35 PM, Allison Fedirka wrote:

         Not sure who Mercopress is but they tend to report on
         Malvinas/Falklands stuff more completely than other news outlets and
         a bit faster than Argentine press.  The two articles below are the
         initial announcement (was repped) that the Govt plans its own
         exploration activities and the second is the most recent article
         saying that exploration plans are still on track for the start of
         Dec 2010.  The initial announcement was well timed, just about a
         week after the natl holiday for Malvinas in Argentina (April 2).

         For now it looks like YPF-Repsol, Petrobras and Pan American Energy
         will participate in the exploration.  Not sure how PAE's association
         with British Petroleum would affect things (if at all).  I'm not
         sure why I though Uruguay was somehow involved (wishful
         thinking?).  

         April 9th 2010 - 02:57 UTC
         - http://en.mercopress.com/2010/04/09/argentina-to-drill-two-wells-next-to-falklands-waters-in-last-quarter

     Argentina to drill two wells next to Falklands* waters in last quarter

         Several oil companies operating in Argentina have teamed up to begin
         hydrocarbons explorations close to Falklands* waters. The companies
         have programmed to spend 140 million US dollars in two exploratory
         wells for which they have contracted a special drilling vessel,
         according to reports in the Buenos Aires press.
         Companies involved are YPF, Brazil*s Petrobras and PAE which is an
         association of Argentina*s Bridas and British Petroleum.
         The vessel *Stena DriMax* is scheduled to drill two 2.000 metres
         wells in an area 320 kilometres from Rio Grande and 498 kilometres
         from Rio Gallegos.
         Although not many details of the operation have been disclosed
         *Stena DriMax* should be arriving in the last quarter of the year
         and will count with three support vessels operating from Comodoro
         Rivadavia as the logistics base.
         An estimated 250 people will be involved in the drilling round, says
         the Buenos Aires press. The vessel can accommodate 180 people.
         YPF has drilled in the South Atlantic, mainly offshore Chubut
         province in relatively shallow waters but this time the operation is
         to take place at an average depth of 500 metres according to the
         Buenos Aires press.
         Stena DrillMax is currently operating off-shore Brazil contracted by
         YPF parent company, Spain*s Repsol.
         The initiative apparently has been spurred by the Argentine
         government in response to the exploratory drilling round in
         Falklands* waters by four British companies with the oil rig Ocean
         Guardian, and which has infuriated Argentine authorities and upset
         public opinion.
         The first well drilled in the north Falkland basin by Desire
         Petroleum showed abundant signs of oil and gas but was finally
         sealed since it lacked the sufficient commercial volumes.
         According to the Stena Drilling website, the company is a wholly
         owned subsidiary of Stena AB, Gothenburg, Sweden and is one of the
         world's foremost independent drilling contractors.
         In 1989 and 1996 Stena acquired Houlder Marine Drilling and Ben Line
         Steamers / Atlantic Drilling respectively; and with them, history
         and pedigree dating back to the mid-1970s. The acquisitions were
         strategic in providing Stena Drilling, not only with worthy drilling
         units, but also with staff and personnel, who brought invaluable
         operational experience and success into the Company.
         Today, Stena Drilling manages a global business, holding a portfolio
         of successful, past and present operations in the North Sea, US Gulf
         of Mexico, South East Asia, Mediterranean, Caribbean, South America,
         Australia, North Africa and West Africa. In expanding its fleet of
         well-maintained drilling units, the Company has had an active role
         in building and converting rigs and, in doing so, pioneering some of
         the most leading-edge technologies and innovations in the drilling
         world.
         The 228 metres long Stena DrillMax was built by Samsung Heavy
         Industries, South Korea and is described as a dynamically positioned
         drilling vessels designed for year round world wide operations in
         ultra deep waters. She has a water depth capacity of 10.000 ft and
         35.000 deep drilling with a variable deck load of 15.000 tons. 

         Argentina confirms drilling in Malvinas basin for next December
         September 15th 2010 - 05:46
         UTC - http://en.mercopress.com/2010/09/15/argentina-confirms-drilling-in-malvinas-basin-for-next-december
         The Argentine press confirmed that following the contracting of a
         semi-submersible rig from the Swedish company Stensa, a consortium
         of Argentine based oil companies will begin exploratory drilling in
         the Malvinas basin next December.
         The consortium which includes YPF-Repsol, Pan American Energy and
         Petrobras will be drilling half way between the Falkland Islands and
         Tierra del Fuego, in what is considered the most austral
         hydrocarbons offshore exploratory operation in Argentine history.
         The initiative is seen as a strong reply from Argentina to the
         exploratory round in Falklands* waters which the government of
         President Cristina Kirchner has condemned and rejected as *illegal*
         since these are *disputed waters*, according to the Argentine
         argument.
         At least five London quoted companies have drilled or have announced
         plans to drill in Falklands* waters taking advantage of the *Ocean
         Guardian* rig.
         In Buenos Aires Defence ministry strategy considers the southwest
         Atlantic as *the soft belly of Argentina* and the policy has been to
         sponsor oil related activities in the area to contain the
         *encroaching* British companies, according to Argentina*s Cronista
         Comercial, a financial newspaper close to the government.
         *A positive result in the area would give a boost to the industry,
         and investments, and also most importantly signal defence of our
         sovereignty*, said an Argentine Defence ministry source.
         The consortium involved in the coming drilling round is estimated to
         pour into the operation 140 million US dollars. A 3D survey of the
         area to be explored was recently finished and analyzed.
         Apparently the project was almost cancelled at the end of last year,
         but YPF was finally able to contract a semi-submersible rig which
         has the necessary fittings to stand weather conditions in the South
         Atlantic. Built to stand ten metre waves the rig is permanently
         fixed to its position by a GPS system and four independent turbines.
         The vessel will be operating in waters 1.500 metres deep and
         drilling is expected to exceed 3.000 metres.
         Spain*s Repsol-YPF has sold some of its YPF assets back to Argentine
         interests, particularly the Eskenazi family which is very close to
         the Kirchner couple and had promised to go ahead with the Malvinas
         basin project.
</description>
    <date>2010-09-21 21:15:37</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 22:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/904949_re-latam-intro-falklands-malvinas-drilling-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>latam@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:latam@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>906940</id>
    <title>Albania - update 
</title>
    <description>&gt;From TrapWire --

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source advised no change yet (as of 0400 this morning) in Rama's planned
protest.
 

Source is meeting with someone close to the opposition leadership today
and will advise if any change.  M

 

 

 
</description>
    <date>2011-01-27 14:30:27</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/906940_albania-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>909781</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] sourcing insight
</title>
    <description>   We need to change that.  A simple email to IT before a trip gets you off
   the list. 
   From: Kamran Bokhari &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2011 16:51:42 -0400
   To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] sourcing insight
   Ok, but even when I have been outside the continent I have still been on
   secure. 
   On 7/29/11 4:03 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     Yeah. We don't consider Canada to really be overseas.  
     From: Kamran Bokhari &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
     Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2011 15:49:34 -0400
     To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [alpha] sourcing insight
     I have always been secure even though I am always overseas.

     On 7/29/11 2:59 PM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

       Ok, good question.

       The secure list is not supposed to have anyone overseas on it.  (And
       as a side note, if you are traveling overseas you need to get yourself
       off this list while out of the country.)  We have many WOs overseas
       and so when we send something to secure it is just one more way we are
       trying to protect sourcing by not having it sent over international
       wires (yes, of course, there are many ways that foreigners can access
       any insight sent from anywhere at anytime, but it is somewhat more
       secure when we email only within CONUS).  So either a source or
       insight that is highly sensitive needs to go to the secure list only,
       and that means that we send it in ourselves because the overseas WOs
       won't be able to pick it up.

       Alpha goes to analysts/writers (and the few others selected on this
       list) and not ADPs or Interns, including to analysts/writers overseas.

       On 7/29/11 1:50 PM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

         your last line in the P.S.... said to send things directly to
         secure... I wanted to know if that meant only to secure or to alpha
         too.
         I think there is still some confusion over which list is which.
         On 7/29/11 1:47 PM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

           I don't understand your question.  This applies to both lists. 
           All sources need IDs (as mentioned in my PS - does that answer
           your question?).

           As to the question of sending from BBs, I definitely understand
           that issue.  When you return to your computer, please reply to the
           insight sent out with the full coding.  We need this info to
           really track insight and any changes over time.

           On 7/29/11 1:45 PM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

             secure or alpha?

             On 7/29/11 1:41 PM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

 We've gotten lazy on insight source IDs again.  Not only do you need to
 put the source code in the subject line, but all of these categories
 need to be filled out for every single insight sent to the list.

 SOURCE: code
 ATTRIBUTION: this is what we should say if we use this info in a
 publication, e.g. STRATFOR source/source in the medical industry/source
 on the ground, etc
 SOURCE DESCRIPTION: this is where we put the more concrete details of
 the source for our internal consumption so we can better understand the
 source's background and ability to make the assessments in the insight
 PUBLICATION: Yes or no.  If you put yes it doesn't mean that we will
 publish it, but only that we can publish it.
 SOURCE RELIABILITY: A-F, A being the best and F being the worst.  this
 grades the turnaround time of this source in responding to requests
 ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1-10, 1 being the best and 10 being the worst (we may
 change the range here in the future).  this changes a lot based on the
 info provided.  1 is "you can take this to the bank" and 10 would be an
 example of maybe - "this is a totally ridiculous rumor but something
 that is spreading on the ground"
 SPECIAL HANDLING: often this is "none" but it may be something like, "if
 you use this we need to be sure not to mention the part about XXX in the
 publication" or any other special notes
 SOURCE HANDLER: the person who can take follow-up questions and
 communicate with the source

 If you have any questions, concerns or suggestions, let me know.  I'll
 be back in the office next Tues so if you want to discuss this process
 in person we can do so soon.  In the meantime, remember that every piece
 of insight needs this ENTIRE ID unless it is just something that you
 picked up off the ground from a source that you will likely not hear
 from again.  Even then, you should fill out the entire ID and in the
 SOURCE field simply say - n/a with a description on why we are not
 coding them.

 Jen
 PS: Also remember that is something is highly sensitive to send directly
 - not thru a WO - to the "secure" list.  Secure list insights still need
 the above ID tags.


             --
             Lauren Goodrich
             Senior Eurasia Analyst
             STRATFOR
             T: 512.744.4311
             F: 512.744.4334
             lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
             www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.comwww.stratfor.com

         --
         Lauren Goodrich
         Senior Eurasia Analyst
         STRATFOR
         T: 512.744.4311
         F: 512.744.4334
         lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
         www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.comwww.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-29 22:58:35</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/909781_re-alpha-sourcing-insight-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>910301</id>
    <title>Re: [latam] INTRO: Falklands/Malvinas drilling
</title>
    <description>   They think that Argentina is not a threat. They are more afraid of the UK
   because they associate it with NATO.

   The latest Brazil s national plan of defense says that the South Atlantic
   should be one of Brazils security priorities.

    

   Paulo Gregoire
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "LatAm AOR" &lt;latam@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, September 22, 2010 4:10:46 AM
   Subject: Re: [latam] INTRO: Falklands/Malvinas drilling

   so brazil is establishing itself as a protector of Argentina?

   interesting...
   i guess they can afford to do so if they perceive Argentina as being that
   week
   On Sep 21, 2010, at 2:09 PM, Paulo Gregoire wrote:

     Yes I will try to get insight. Brazil has mentioned a few times that the
     South Atlantic is a  blue amazon  and that no northern country should
     be occupying it.  Since Lula came to power Brazil has shown signs of
     support to Argentina in the Malvinas issue.
     They do not want to have the UK next to the pre-salt reserves.

     Paulo Gregoire
     STRATFOR
     www.stratfor.com

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "LatAm AOR" &lt;latam@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Wednesday, September 22, 2010 3:37:57 AM
     Subject: Re: [latam] INTRO: Falklands/Malvinas drilling

     This is very strange that Petrobras is involved (also interesting that
     Spain is backing Argentina up).
     Paulo, can you try to collect insight on what is going on here?
     Petrobras participating in this project is a pretty strong show of
     support for Argentina in a dispute where Argentina has looked completely
     helpless.  Why is Brazil/Petrobras doing this?
     On Sep 21, 2010, at 1:35 PM, Allison Fedirka wrote:

       Not sure who Mercopress is but they tend to report on
       Malvinas/Falklands stuff more completely than other news outlets and a
       bit faster than Argentine press.  The two articles below are the
       initial announcement (was repped) that the Govt plans its own
       exploration activities and the second is the most recent article
       saying that exploration plans are still on track for the start of Dec
       2010.  The initial announcement was well timed, just about a week
       after the natl holiday for Malvinas in Argentina (April 2).

       For now it looks like YPF-Repsol, Petrobras and Pan American Energy
       will participate in the exploration.  Not sure how PAE's association
       with British Petroleum would affect things (if at all).  I'm not sure
       why I though Uruguay was somehow involved (wishful thinking?).  

       April 9th 2010 - 02:57 UTC
       - http://en.mercopress.com/2010/04/09/argentina-to-drill-two-wells-next-to-falklands-waters-in-last-quarter

    Argentina to drill two wells next to Falklandsa** waters in last quarter

       Several oil companies operating in Argentina have teamed up to begin
       hydrocarbons explorations close to Falklandsa** waters. The companies
       have programmed to spend 140 million US dollars in two exploratory
       wells for which they have contracted a special drilling vessel,
       according to reports in the Buenos Aires press.
       Companies involved are YPF, Brazila**s Petrobras and PAE which is an
       association of Argentinaa**s Bridas and British Petroleum.
       The vessel a**Stena DriMaxa** is scheduled to drill two 2.000 metres
       wells in an area 320 kilometres from Rio Grande and 498 kilometres
       from Rio Gallegos.
       Although not many details of the operation have been disclosed
       a**Stena DriMaxa** should be arriving in the last quarter of the year
       and will count with three support vessels operating from Comodoro
       Rivadavia as the logistics base.
       An estimated 250 people will be involved in the drilling round, says
       the Buenos Aires press. The vessel can accommodate 180 people.
       YPF has drilled in the South Atlantic, mainly offshore Chubut province
       in relatively shallow waters but this time the operation is to take
       place at an average depth of 500 metres according to the Buenos Aires
       press.
       Stena DrillMax is currently operating off-shore Brazil contracted by
       YPF parent company, Spaina**s Repsol.
       The initiative apparently has been spurred by the Argentine government
       in response to the exploratory drilling round in Falklandsa** waters
       by four British companies with the oil rig Ocean Guardian, and which
       has infuriated Argentine authorities and upset public opinion.
       The first well drilled in the north Falkland basin by Desire Petroleum
       showed abundant signs of oil and gas but was finally sealed since it
       lacked the sufficient commercial volumes.
       According to the Stena Drilling website, the company is a wholly owned
       subsidiary of Stena AB, Gothenburg, Sweden and is one of the world's
       foremost independent drilling contractors.
       In 1989 and 1996 Stena acquired Houlder Marine Drilling and Ben Line
       Steamers / Atlantic Drilling respectively; and with them, history and
       pedigree dating back to the mid-1970s. The acquisitions were strategic
       in providing Stena Drilling, not only with worthy drilling units, but
       also with staff and personnel, who brought invaluable operational
       experience and success into the Company.
       Today, Stena Drilling manages a global business, holding a portfolio
       of successful, past and present operations in the North Sea, US Gulf
       of Mexico, South East Asia, Mediterranean, Caribbean, South America,
       Australia, North Africa and West Africa. In expanding its fleet of
       well-maintained drilling units, the Company has had an active role in
       building and converting rigs and, in doing so, pioneering some of the
       most leading-edge technologies and innovations in the drilling world.
       The 228 metres long Stena DrillMax was built by Samsung Heavy
       Industries, South Korea and is described as a dynamically positioned
       drilling vessels designed for year round world wide operations in
       ultra deep waters. She has a water depth capacity of 10.000 ft and
       35.000 deep drilling with a variable deck load of 15.000 tons. 

       Argentina confirms drilling in Malvinas basin for next December
       September 15th 2010 - 05:46
       UTC - http://en.mercopress.com/2010/09/15/argentina-confirms-drilling-in-malvinas-basin-for-next-december
       The Argentine press confirmed that following the contracting of a
       semi-submersible rig from the Swedish company Stensa, a consortium of
       Argentine based oil companies will begin exploratory drilling in the
       Malvinas basin next December.
       The consortium which includes YPF-Repsol, Pan American Energy and
       Petrobras will be drilling half way between the Falkland Islands and
       Tierra del Fuego, in what is considered the most austral hydrocarbons
       offshore exploratory operation in Argentine history.
       The initiative is seen as a strong reply from Argentina to the
       exploratory round in Falklandsa** waters which the government of
       President Cristina Kirchner has condemned and rejected as
       a**illegala** since these are a**disputed watersa**, according to the
       Argentine argument.
       At least five London quoted companies have drilled or have announced
       plans to drill in Falklandsa** waters taking advantage of the a**Ocean
       Guardiana** rig.
       In Buenos Aires Defence ministry strategy considers the southwest
       Atlantic as a**the soft belly of Argentinaa** and the policy has been
       to sponsor oil related activities in the area to contain the
       a**encroachinga** British companies, according to Argentinaa**s
       Cronista Comercial, a financial newspaper close to the government.
       a**A positive result in the area would give a boost to the industry,
       and investments, and also most importantly signal defence of our
       sovereigntya**, said an Argentine Defence ministry source.
       The consortium involved in the coming drilling round is estimated to
       pour into the operation 140 million US dollars. A 3D survey of the
       area to be explored was recently finished and analyzed.
       Apparently the project was almost cancelled at the end of last year,
       but YPF was finally able to contract a semi-submersible rig which has
       the necessary fittings to stand weather conditions in the South
       Atlantic. Built to stand ten metre waves the rig is permanently fixed
       to its position by a GPS system and four independent turbines. The
       vessel will be operating in waters 1.500 metres deep and drilling is
       expected to exceed 3.000 metres.
       Spaina**s Repsol-YPF has sold some of its YPF assets back to Argentine
       interests, particularly the Eskenazi family which is very close to the
       Kirchner couple and had promised to go ahead with the Malvinas basin
       project.
</description>
    <date>2010-09-21 21:15:38</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 22:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/910301_re-latam-intro-falklands-malvinas-drilling-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>paulo.gregoire@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>latam@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:latam@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>917533</id>
    <title>Re: Albania
</title>
    <description>Pls email me the piece.  Thanks

Marko Papic wrote:
&gt; Great insight! Forward him our piece that ran today.
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; On Jan 22, 2011, at 8:51 AM, Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:
&gt;
&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt; From TrapWire contact (former CIA clandestine officer)
&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt; Not sure if STRATFOR's following events there -- but I chatted with some
&gt;&gt; contacts in Tirana and tomorrow (Sunday) protests are expected to be
&gt;&gt; even larger than yesterday's -- with many in the crowd bent on
&gt;&gt; retaliation for the police killing of three protestors. (As always,
&gt;&gt; rumor mills are in overdrive in the Balkans with claims being made that
&gt;&gt; the cops targeted these protestors for assassination. No proof yet that
&gt;&gt; that's the case. Having dealt with Albanian cops for three years, I can
&gt;&gt; assure you though they donâ€™t need much pushing to draw their weapons.
&gt;&gt; They actually fired artillery rounds onto protestors during the chaos of
&gt;&gt; '97). Tough times in Tirana right now.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Mike
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;     
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 17:18:25</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/917533_re-albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>939050</id>
    <title>The Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks' Survival
</title>
    <description>    Stratfor logo                                                             
   The Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks' Survival                                 
                                                                              
    December 7, 2010 | 1646 GMT                                               
    The Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks' Survival                                
    FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP/Getty Images                                         
    WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange at the United Nations office in Geneva   
    on Nov. 5                                                                 
    Summary                                                                   
                                                                              
    WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange surrendered to authorities in Britain    
    on Dec. 7, following an Interpol Red Notice based on a Swedish arrest     
    warrant. WikiLeaks is a relatively young organization with one leader     
    and has not institutionalized a set of practices and protocols that       
    guarantee its survival even if the personnel changes. Assange's arrest    
    will test the organization's ability to maintain itself, but the use of   
    the Internet to leak documents will continue.                             
                                                                              
    Analysis                                                                  
    Related Special Topic Page                                                
      * The WikiLeaks Releases                                                
                                                                              
    London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and       
    public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 9:30 a.m. local time on Dec. 7 after   
    Assange turned himself in. He is due to appear in a court in Westminster  
    soon over sexual assault charges filed against him in Sweden, and faces   
    possible extradition.                                                     
                                                                              
    There is considerable interest in what his arrest will mean for his       
    organization. WikiLeaks organized a new method for an old practice -      
    leaking confidential government information in an attempt to influence    
    politics. And while Assange's arrest could disrupt the long-term          
    viability of WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release of the current       
    batch of diplomatic cables in the short term, nor will it stop similar    
    future leaks via the Internet.                                            
                                                                              
    Leadership is extremely important in nongovernmental organizations that   
    have not institutionalized to the point where their dominant figures are  
    replaceable and members can adapt to changing circumstance. From          
    terrorist groups to charities, new organizations often rise and fall      
    with their founders. Assange created WikiLeaks with himself as the only   
    public face - he leads supporters, drives donations, gives interviews     
    and faces the resulting criticism. There have been reports of internal    
    dissent and tensions, and in one interview with CNN, a discussion of the  
    organization's internal politics seemed to touch a nerve with Assange.    
    If Assange were to face charges in Sweden for sexual assault or new       
    charges in the United Kingdom or the United States and was found guilty,  
    WikiLeaks would still need someone to oversee it. Assange may have        
    someone ready to fill the leadership void, but there has been no          
    evidence of this.                                                         
                                                                              
    In addition to having its leadership threatened, WikiLeaks has suffered   
    logistically. As national governments put pressure on its                 
    infrastructure, its web server has been shut down, and most important, a  
    major source of funding, PayPal, has closed WikiLeaks' account (Visa and  
    Mastercard have also banned payments from their cards to WikiLeaks). It   
    is also possible the events of the past few months will deter other       
    potential leakers from approaching WikiLeaks as opposed to other          
    organizations (especially if they dislike or disagree with Assange).      
    Moreover, this new set of documents has not been greeted with the         
    reaction Assange expected - the U.S. public is not angry at the State     
    Department, but many are angry at Assange and his organization.           
                                                                              
    Immediately following Assange's arrest, a WikiLeaks spokesman said the    
    arrest would not stop the group's operations. Indeed, whether Assange     
    remains behind bars or not, it most likely will not stop the continued    
    release of the 250,000 U.S. State Department cables, only a fraction of   
    which have been released thus far. It also will not shut down WikiLeaks,  
    which still maintains its website - albeit currently on a Swiss server,   
    after its initial U.S.-hosted servers were deactivated - and the ability  
    to collect information from leakers. So in the short term, WikiLeaks      
    will persist. The question remains if Assange created a truly             
    sustainable institution.                                                  
                                                                              
    If Assange is extradited to Sweden and tried on one count of unlawful     
    coercion, two counts of sexual molestation and one count of rape, it is   
    not clear to what degree the image of WikiLeaks will be damaged; thus     
    far Assange has cultivated the site as an extension of his persona, and   
    even without the assault charges he is not held in high repute. The       
    extradition process could take months or even years, and he may try to    
    use prison time to develop his image as a martyr for free speech, but     
    this can backfire. If WikiLeaks, however, is not tied to his image, it    
    will be much more sustainable as an organization.                         
                                                                              
    Western governments also fear whatever is contained in his "insurance"    
    file, a 1.4-gigabyte computer file that has already been distributed to   
    many thousands of people over the Internet. Assange has threatened to     
    release the encryption password if something happens to him. As STRATFOR  
    has stated before, WikiLeaks likely led with its most insightful          
    documents, and thus those saved in the insurance file are probably less   
    enlightening than they are damaging. The file may contain no new          
    information at all, but simply the names and information on sources,      
    diplomats, military and intelligence officers not already disclosed.      
    Such a release could put these individuals' jobs or even lives at risk.   
    However, such a release exposing these individuals in a vindictive        
    manner could further tarnish Assange and WikiLeaks in the eyes of the     
    international public, to include potential financial and information      
    contributors. Beyond that, governments will almost certainly take         
    stronger measures against WikiLeaks if it does release identities of      
    classified sources or officers.                                           
                                                                              
    WikiLeaks is now facing a conundrum that all new organizations face at    
    some point - the ability to maintain and transition leadership through    
    adverse circumstances. Assange may be released quickly, but if he is      
    not, WikiLeaks' survival will be in question. However, even if WikiLeaks  
    disappears, the organizational concept will continue, and leaks along     
    with it. WikiLeaks has only demonstrated the ability new technology has   
    created to transfer large quantities of documents, and there is no        
    reason other organizations will not make use of the same technology.      
                                                                              
    Give us your thoughts                          Read comments on           
    on this report                                 other reports              
                                                                              
    For Publication                                Reader Comments            
                                                                              
    Not For Publication                                                       
    Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                                
    (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 18:38:06</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/939050_the-assange-arrest-and-wikileaks-survival-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>allstratfor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>noreply@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>942090</id>
    <title>Geopolitical Weekly : Taking Stock of WikiLeaks
</title>
    <description>    Stratfor logo                                                             
   Taking Stock of WikiLeaks                                                  
                                                                              
    December 14, 2010                                                         
                                                                              
    Germany and the Failure of Multiculturalism                               
                                                                              
    By George Friedman                                                        
                                                                              
    Julian Assange has declared that geopolitics will be separated into       
    pre-"Cablegate" and post-"Cablegate" eras. That was a bold claim.         
    However, given the intense interest that the leaks produced, it is a      
    claim that ought to be carefully considered. Several weeks have passed    
    since the first of the diplomatic cables were released, and it is time    
    now to address the following questions: First, how significant were the   
    leaks? Second, how could they have happened? Third, was their release a   
    crime? Fourth, what were their consequences? Finally, and most            
    important, is the WikiLeaks premise that releasing government secrets is  
    a healthy and appropriate act a tenable position?                         
                                                                              
    Let's begin by recalling that the U.S. State Department documents         
    constituted the third wave of leaks. The first two consisted of           
    battlefield reports from Iraq and Afghanistan. Looking back on those as   
    a benchmark, it is difficult to argue that they revealed information      
    that ran counter to informed opinion. I use the term "informed opinion"   
    deliberately. For someone who was watching Iraq and Afghanistan with      
    some care over the previous years, the leaks might have provided          
    interesting details but they would not have provided any startling        
    distinction between the reality that was known and what was revealed.     
    If, on the other hand, you weren't paying close attention, and WikiLeaks  
    provided your first and only view of the battlefields in any detail, you  
    might have been surprised.                                                
                                                                              
    Let's consider the most controversial revelation, one of the tens of      
    thousands of reports released on Iraq and Afghanistan and one in which a  
    video indicated that civilians were deliberately targeted by U.S.         
    troops. The first point, of course, is that the insurgents, in violation  
    of the 1949 Geneva Conventions, did not go into combat wearing armbands   
    or other distinctive clothing to distinguish themselves from              
    non-combatants. The Geneva Conventions have always been adamant on this   
    requirement because they regarded combatants operating under the cover    
    of civilians as being responsible for putting those civilians in harm's   
    way, not the uniformed troops who were forced to distinguish between      
    combatants and non-combatants when the combatants deliberately chose to   
    act in violation of the Geneva Conventions.                               
                                                                              
    It follows from this that such actions against civilians are inevitable   
    in the kind of war Iraqi insurgents chose to wage. Obviously, this        
    particular event has to be carefully analyzed, but in a war in which      
    combatants blend with non-combatants, civilian casualties will occur,     
    and so will criminal actions by uniformed troops. Hundreds of thousands   
    of troops have fought in Iraq, and the idea that criminal acts would be   
    absent is absurd. What is most startling is not the presence of           
    potentially criminal actions but their scarcity. Anyone who has been      
    close to combat or who has read histories of World War II would be        
    struck not by the presence of war crimes but by the fact that in all the  
    WikiLeaks files so few potential cases are found. War is controlled       
    violence, and when controls fail - as they inevitably do - uncontrolled   
    and potentially criminal violence occurs. However, the case cited by      
    WikiLeaks with much fanfare did not clearly show criminal actions on the  
    part of American troops as much as it did the consequences of the         
    insurgents violating the Geneva Conventions.                              
                                                                              
    Only those who were not paying attention to the fact that there was a     
    war going on, or who had no understanding of war, or who wanted to        
    pretend to be shocked for political reasons, missed two crucial points:   
    It was the insurgents who would be held responsible for criminal acts     
    under the Geneva Conventions for posing as non-combatants, and there      
    were extraordinarily few cases of potential war crimes that were          
    contained in the leaks.                                                   
                                                                              
    The diplomatic leaks are similar. There is precious little that was       
    revealed that was unknown to the informed observer. For example, anyone   
    reading STRATFOR knows we have argued that it was not only the Israelis   
    but also the Saudis that were most concerned about Iranian power and      
    most insistent that the United States do something about it. While the    
    media treated this as a significant revelation, it required a profound    
    lack of understanding of the geopolitics of the Persian Gulf to regard    
    U.S. diplomatic cables on the subject as surprising.                      
                                                                              
    U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates' statement in the leaks that the      
    Saudis were always prepared to fight to the last American was             
    embarrassing, in the sense that Gates would have to meet with Saudi       
    leaders in the future and would do so with them knowing what he thinks    
    of them. Of course, the Saudis are canny politicians and diplomats and    
    they already knew how the American leadership regarded their demands.     
                                                                              
    There were other embarrassments also known by the informed observer.      
    Almost anyone who worries about such things is aware that Italian Prime   
    Minister Silvio Berlusconi is close to the Russians and likes to party    
    with young women. The latest batch of leaks revealed that the American    
    diplomatic service was also aware of this. And now Berlusconi is aware    
    that they know of these things, which will make it hard for diplomats to  
    pretend that they don't know of these things. Of course, Berlusconi was   
    aware that everyone knew of these things and clearly didn't care, since   
    the charges were all over Italian media.                                  
                                                                              
    I am not cherry-picking the Saudi or Italian memos. The consistent        
    reality of the leaks is that they do not reveal anything new to the       
    informed but do provide some amusement over certain comments, such as     
    Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Dmitri Medvedev       
    being called "Batman and Robin." That's amusing, but it isn't             
    significant. Amusing and interesting but almost never significant is      
    what I come away with having read through all three waves of leaks.       
                                                                              
    Obviously, the leaks are being used by foreign politicians to their own   
    advantage. For example, the Russians feigned shock that NATO would be     
    reassuring the Balts about defense against a potential Russian invasion   
    or the Poles using the leaks to claim that solid U.S.-Polish relations    
    are an illusion. The Russians know well of NATO plans for defending the   
    Baltic states against a hypothetical Russian invasion, and the Poles      
    know equally well that U.S.-Polish relations are complex but far from     
    illusory. The leaks provide an opportunity for feigning shock and anger   
    and extracting possible minor concessions or controlling atmospherics.    
    They do not, however, change the structure of geopolitics.                
                                                                              
    Indeed, U.S. diplomats come away looking sharp, insightful and decent.    
    While their public statements after a conference may be vacuous, it is    
    encouraging to see that their read of the situation and of foreign        
    leaders is unsentimental and astute. Everything from memos on senior      
    leaders to anonymous snippets from apparently junior diplomats not only   
    are on target (in the sense that STRATFOR agrees with them) but are also  
    well-written and clear. I would argue that the leaks paint a flattering   
    picture overall of the intellect of U.S. officials without revealing,     
    for the most part, anything particularly embarrassing.                    
                                                                              
    At the same time, there were snarky and foolish remarks in some of the    
    leaks, particularly personal comments about leaders and sometimes their   
    families that were unnecessarily offensive. Some of these will damage     
    diplomatic careers, most generated a good deal of personal tension and    
    none of their authors will likely return to the countries in which they   
    served. Much was indeed unprofessional, but the task of a diplomat is to  
    provide a sense of place in its smallest details, and none expect their   
    observations ever to be seen by the wrong people. Nor do nations ever     
    shift geopolitical course over such insults, not in the long run. These   
    personal insults were by far the most significant embarrassments to be    
    found in the latest release. Personal tension is not, however,            
    international tension.                                                    
                                                                              
    This raises the question of why diplomats can't always simply state       
    their minds rather than publicly mouth preposterous platitudes. It could  
    be as simple as this: My son was a terrible pianist. He completely        
    lacked talent. After his recitals at age 10, I would pretend to be        
    enthralled. He knew he was awful and he knew I knew he was awful, but it  
    was appropriate that I not admit what I knew. It is called politeness     
    and sometimes affection. There is rarely affection among nations, but     
    politeness calls for behaving differently when a person is in the         
    company of certain other people than when that person is with colleagues  
    talking about those people. This is the simplest of human rules. Not      
    admitting what you know about others is the foundation of civilization.   
    The same is true among diplomats and nations.                             
                                                                              
    And in the end, this is all I found in the latest WikiLeaks release: a    
    great deal of information about people who aren't American that others    
    certainly knew and were aware that the Americans knew, and now they have  
    all seen it in writing. It would take someone who truly doesn't           
    understand how geopolitics really works to think that this would make a   
    difference. Some diplomats may wind up in other postings, and perhaps     
    some careers will be ended. But the idea that this would somehow change   
    the geopolitics of our time is really hard to fathom. I have yet to see   
    Assange point to something so significant that that it would justify his  
    claim. It may well be that the United States is hiding secrets that       
    would reveal it to be monstrous. If so, it is not to be found in what     
    has been released so far.                                                 
                                                                              
    There is, of course, the question of whether states should hold secrets,  
    which is at the root of the WikiLeaks issue. Assange claims that by       
    revealing these secrets WikiLeaks is doing a service. His ultimate        
    maxim, as he has said on several occasions, is that if money and          
    resources are being spent on keeping something secret, then the reasons   
    must be insidious. Nations have secrets for many reasons, from            
    protecting a military or intelligence advantage to seeking some           
    advantage in negotiations to, at times, hiding nefarious plans. But it    
    is difficult to imagine a state - or a business or a church - acting      
    without confidentiality. Imagine that everything you wrote and said in    
    an attempt to figure out a problem was made public? Every stupid idea     
    that you discarded or clueless comment you expressed would now be pinned  
    on you. But more than that, when you argue that nations should engage in  
    diplomacy rather than war, taking away privacy makes diplomacy            
    impossible. If what you really think of the guy on the other side of the  
    table is made public, how can diplomacy work?                             
                                                                              
    This is the contradiction at the heart of the WikiLeaks project. Given    
    what I have read Assange saying, he seems to me to be an opponent of war  
    and a supporter of peace. Yet what he did in leaking these documents, if  
    the leaking did anything at all, is make diplomacy more difficult. It is  
    not that it will lead to war by any means; it is simply that one cannot   
    advocate negotiations and then demand that negotiators be denied          
    confidentiality in which to conduct their negotiations. No business       
    could do that, nor could any other institution. Note how vigorously       
    WikiLeaks hides the inner workings of its own organization, from how it   
    is funded to the people it employs.                                       
                                                                              
    Assange's claims are made even more interesting in terms of his           
    "thermonuclear" threat. Apparently there are massive files that will be   
    revealed if any harm comes to him. Implicit is the idea that they will    
    not be revealed if he is unharmed - otherwise the threat makes no sense.  
    So, Assange's position is that he has secrets and will keep them secret   
    if he is not harmed. I regard this as a perfectly reasonable and          
    plausible position. One of the best uses for secrets is to control what   
    the other side does to you. So Assange is absolutely committed to         
    revealing the truth unless it serves his interests not to, in which case  
    the public has no need to know.                                           
                                                                              
    It is difficult to see what harm the leaks have done, beyond              
    embarrassment. It is also difficult to understand why WikiLeaks thinks    
    it has changed history or why Assange lacks a sufficient sense of irony   
    not to see the contradiction between his position on openness and his     
    willingness to keep secrets when they benefit him. But there is also      
    something important here, which is how this all was leaked in the first   
    place.                                                                    
                                                                              
    To begin that explanation, we have to go back to 9/11 and the feeling in  
    its aftermath that the failure of various government entities to share    
    information contributed to the disaster. The answer was to share          
    information so that intelligence analysts could draw intelligence from    
    all sources in order to connect the dots. Intelligence organizations      
    hate sharing information because it makes vast amounts of information     
    vulnerable. Compartmentalization makes it hard to connect dots, but it    
    also makes it harder to have a WikiLeaks release. The tension between     
    intelligence and security is eternal, and there will never be a clear     
    solution.                                                                 
                                                                              
    The real issue is who had access to this mass of files and what controls  
    were put on them. Did the IT department track all external drives or      
    e-mails? One of the reasons to be casual is that this was information     
    that was classified secret and below, with the vast majority being at     
    the confidential, no-foreign-distribution level. This information was     
    not considered highly sensitive by the U.S. government. Based on the      
    latest trove, it is hard to figure out how the U.S. government decides    
    to classify material. But it has to be remembered that given their level  
    of classification these files did not have the highest security around    
    them because they were not seen as highly sensitive.                      
                                                                              
    Still, a crime occurred. According to the case of Daniel Ellsberg, who    
    gave a copy of the Pentagon Papers on Vietnam to a New York Times         
    reporter, it is a crime for someone with a security clearance to provide  
    classified material for publication but not a crime for a publisher to    
    publish it, or so it has become practice since the Ellsberg case. Legal   
    experts can debate the nuances, but this has been the practice for        
    almost 40 years. The bright line is whether the publisher in any way      
    encouraged or participated in either the theft of the information or in   
    having it passed on to him. In the Ellsberg case, he handed it to         
    reporters without them even knowing what it was. Assange has been         
    insisting that he was the passive recipient of information that he had    
    nothing to do with securing.                                              
                                                                              
    Now it is interesting whether the sheer existence of WikiLeaks            
    constituted encouragement or conspiracy with anyone willing to pass on    
    classified information to him. But more interesting by far is the         
    sequence of events that led a U.S. Army private first class not only to   
    secure the material but to know where to send it and how to get it        
    there. If Pfc. Bradley Manning conceived and executed the theft by        
    himself, and gave the information to WikiLeaks unprompted, Assange is     
    clear. But anyone who assisted Manning or encouraged him is probably      
    guilty of conspiracy, and if Assange knew what was being done, he is      
    probably guilty, too. There was talk about some people at MIT helping     
    Manning. Unscrambling the sequence is what the Justice Department is      
    undoubtedly doing now. Assange cannot be guilty of treason, since he      
    isn't a U.S. citizen. But he could be guilty of espionage. His best       
    defense will be that he can't be guilty of espionage because the          
    material that was stolen was so trivial.                                  
                                                                              
    I have no idea whether or when he got involved in the acquisition of the  
    material. I do know - given the material leaked so far - that there is    
    little beyond minor embarrassments contained within it. Therefore,        
    Assange's claim that geopolitics has changed is as false as it is bold.   
    Whether he committed any crime, including rape, is something I have no    
    idea about. What he is clearly guilty of is hyperbole. But contrary to    
    what he intended, he did do a service to the United States. New controls  
    will be placed on the kind of low-grade material he published. Secretary  
    of Defense Gates made the following point on this:                        
                                                                              
      "Now, I've heard the impact of these releases on our foreign policy     
      described as a meltdown, as a game-changer, and so on. I think those    
      descriptions are fairly significantly overwrought. The fact is,         
      governments deal with the United States because it's in their           
      interest, not because they like us, not because they trust us, and not  
      because they believe we can keep secrets. Many governments - some       
      governments - deal with us because they fear us, some because they      
      respect us, most because they need us. We are still essentially, as     
      has been said before, the indispensable nation."                        
                                                                              
      "Is this embarrassing? Yes. Is it awkward? Yes. Consequences for U.S.   
      foreign policy? I think fairly modest."                                 
                                                                              
    I don't like to give anyone else the final word, but in this case Robert  
    Gates' view is definitive. One can pretend that WikiLeaks has redefined   
    geopolitics, but it hasn't come close.                                    
                                                                              
    Give us your thoughts                          Read comments on           
    on this report                                 other reports              
                                                                              
    For Publication                                Reader Comments            
                                                                              
    Not For Publication                                                       
                                                                              
    Reprinting or republication of this report on websites is authorized by   
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    (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
</description>
    <date>2010-12-14 11:10:05</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/942090_geopolitical-weekly-taking-stock-of-wikileaks-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>duchin@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>noreply@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>945049</id>
    <title>Re: London Terror Surveillance (not for pub)
</title>
    <description>   Good question. I don't know. Will ask.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2010 19:21:20 -0500
   To: Secure List&lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: London Terror Surveillance (not for pub)
   granted we have a strong theory about the GCHQ/MI6 officer who was killed,
   but could this person or persons conducting surveillance have been
   involved?

   (though it really does look like the GCHQ guy locked himself in a bag and
   couldn't get out....)
   Fred Burton wrote:

     aQ terrorist surveillance has been positively identified outside of MI6
     Hqs in London.  MI5 is monitoring the terrorist suspect observed
     conducting the pre-operational surveillance.   
      
      

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-09-24 02:22:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-16 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/945049_re-london-terror-surveillance-not-for-pub-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>948956</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - MOLDOVA - Part 4 - Future Challenge for Russia in Moldova
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE: MD101
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Washington &amp; Chisinau
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Head of Moldovan Lobby in Washington, but lives
   partially in Chisinau &amp; super close to most politicians
   PUBLICATION: yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

   THE FUTURE OF MOLDOVA

   Russia will consolidate Moldova a** no one doubts this. But the question
   is whether Russia can start to influence the new generation.

   The older generation and the people from the countryside of Moldova
   considers themselves Moldovan a** and tied to its old ways and Moscow. But
   the new generation and those in the capital consider themselves either
   pro-Western Moldovan or actually tied to Romanian identity (not the
   country, which is important to distinguish).

   It was this younger generation that rioted last time, but they are only in
   the capital and not the rest of the country. The older generation plus
   anyone in the country highly outnumbers the younger or capital generation.

   Also, the Communists and Voronin are great at literally knocking on the
   doors in the countryside to influence this population.

   Russia just needs to influence the capital/younger population. Russia is
   trying to do this with expanding its ties with non-Communist parties. But
   it hasna**t been successful thus far and needs to really make this its
   next focus after the next election.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer/Beijing Correspondent, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-10-01 04:11:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-05 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/948956_insight-moldova-part-4-future-challenge-for-russia-in.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>952799</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT -- IVORY COAST -- thoughts from Abidjan
</title>
    <description>   Code: CI005
   Attribution: Stratfor source (is an American missionary in Abidjan)
   Publication: for background
   Source reliability: is pretty new
   Item credibility: 5
   Handler: Mark
   Suggested distribution: Alpha

   Almost everything you are hearing from France and the UN is not true. Life
   in Abidjan is not even close to being normal. There are dead bodies at
   every intersection rotting in the sun for many days. Roving bands of armed
   criminals set free from the prisons to join his army (over 30,000 at last
   count) by Ouattara's men are killing randomly all over Abidjan. They are
   looting, killing, raping, entering homes and taking whatever they want,
   stealing cars and 4 x 4s. Ouattara's rebels going house to house taking
   young men from 15 years and up and killing them on the spot or taking them
   somewhere and they are not seen again. Food is running out, water too in
   some spots. Electric current is still on but not consistent. The French
   are still trying to kill Gbagbo. They bombed his house again today. They
   are not waiting to starve him out. They are attacking daily. Don't believe
   the nightly news my man. The French and UN have killed thousands of young
   people who have given their lives to protect their President without
   weapons, when they surrounded his residence and the Presidential Palace.
   Did you know that the French and UN killed many civilians in Akouedo
   military base. That base was home for hundreds of families of soldiers.
   Over 2400 men, women and children lost their lives. Our family knows
   families that were killed there.

   So, you asked for it. Now you have it. What will you do with this
   information. Is anyone listening to Senator Jim Inhofe? He has the facts
   and all that we have seen on the internet is accurate. Go to 
   http://inhofe.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=PressRoom.JimsJournal&amp;ContentRecord_id=3218c4e9-b19e-9f09-3866-7981e5068dbf

   Check out the facts that the Senator has furnished. He also spoke to the
   Senate and wrote to Hilary Clinton to demand a stop to this madness. Why
   isn't the news media picking upon this Mark. It is another Rwanda in
   progress.

   You ask if the people will begrudge him. It looks to us like he is killing
   all the people who do not support him, and we fear he will continue to do
   it until there are none left to hold a grudge. You ask what normal looks
   like. We know many who would give anything to leave the country right now
   but they are afraid to leave their houses because Ouattara terrorists are
   all over the place. They say the borders are open but we checked the
   border at Noe and there have not been any people leaving for over a week.
   The border town is dead. Normally it is full of people but the merchants
   there all know the true story. The Ouattara rebels are not allowing people
   to leave. So normal right now, does not exist. It is really complete
   insanity and total fear tat has griped the population.

   We are praying for a miracle and hope there are some people left in the
   media world with a little courage to tell the truth.

   As always, please do not use my name in this.
</description>
    <date>2011-04-11 15:19:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-06 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/952799_-alpha-insight-ivory-coast-thoughts-from-abidjan-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mark.schroeder@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>952814</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - MOLDOVA - Part 3 - Germany, US, Romania, Ukraine
</title>
    <description>     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Chris Farnham" &lt;chris.farnham@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "analysts" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, September 30, 2010 9:10:53 PM
   Subject: INSIGHT - MOLDOVA - Part 3 - Germany, US, Romania, Ukraine

   SOURCE: MD101
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Washington &amp; Chisinau
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Head of Moldovan Lobby in Washington, but lives
   partially in Chisinau &amp; super close to most politicians
   PUBLICATION: yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

   GERMANY

   As far as Germany, Germans have a**historica** ties to having former
   villages and pockets of former population in Moldova. Russia kicked them
   out, so there is a strange resentment between Germany and Russia over
   Moldova.  yeah, this is a huge factor in both Moldova and Romania

   But this isna**t a red-line.

   Instead, it is more about how the Moldova solidification will ripple
   through Central Europe. But Germany can contain Russiaa**s move if it gets
   an answer on Transdniestria. This will allow Germany to say to Europe
   a**see, if we work with Russia, then we can accept your ruling there.
   Germanya**s representative on the issue a** Patricia Flor a** told Russia
   that if Moscow could get a resolution between Transdniestria and Moldova
   started then Germany would be more open to Russia controlling the country.
   Germany also said that if Russia could get a resolution started then the
   rest of the EU would see it as a positive step in security assurances to
   Europe.

   I have this feeling as well. I am wondering what he means by "Gets an
   answer"... on what? Just what Russia plans to do in general? Troops
   specifically?

   This basically goes with our initial take that Germany is testing Russia's
   level of commitment and security cooperation. Moldova is not a do or die
   situation for Germany. Germany can survive with Moldova in Russia's hands.
   It has been for the past 20 years anyway.
   UKRAINE, ROMANIA &amp; US

   Ukraine is on board with whatever Russia wants on the Moldova issue,
   moreover it will help Russia with whatever is needed to help consolidate
   the country.

   Romania is simply terrible at influencing the country. Sure it wants to
   hold Moldova from Russia and to its own. But Romania has not done any
   grassroots moves. The US as asked Romania to set up NGOs, media, etca*|.
   it hasna**t. Romania tried after the last election to set up a Moldova
   Fund to invest in the countrya**but it has only given 100 million euros
   thus far a** which is nothing.

   The US has NO ONE interested in the country. Literally, the lobby in
   Washington has no ties in government a** especially Congress, Senate, NSC,
   etc. The only thing is a Moldova desk at State a** which means nothing.
   There is even no USAID to Moldova. Sure MMC gives some money to Moldova,
   but only $262 million.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer/Beijing Correspondent, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-10-01 13:52:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-05 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/952814_re-insight-moldova-part-3-germany-us-romania-ukraine-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>953563</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT - CHINA - Chinese coal imports - WW steel
 Production - (VIA) CN65
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE:  CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes, no attribution
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

     Coal imports into China remain at low level
     After falling to a 23-month low of 6.8 Mt in February, China's coal
     imports in March climbed by 2.3 Mt month-on-month to 9.1 Mt, according
     to latest data from China Customs Statistics. This is, however, still
     6.1 Mt or 40% lower year-on-year, mainly due to unfavourable price
     differentials between domestic and international supplies. Total
     imports in the 1q11 of 32.4 Mt were 11.1 Mt lower than the previous
     quarter, compared with 44.4 Mt in the corresponding period last year.
     Do not forget that China has considerable logistical problems moving her
     domestic coal 'internally' to end users which periodically results in
     her being
     forced to increase imports to maintain supplies to her power stations
     and steel
     mills, which is why China's imports for coal remain 'lumpy'.
     China is fast developing her large Mongolian coal supplies, which I am
     told
     includes cokaing coal, however once again logistic problems 'bottle
     neck'
     the supply chain to end users and as vast as these coal supplies are
     expected to
     be they can only sumpliment her needs, they cannot replace them. As
     China's
     demand for energy (coal fired) and steel production (coking coal)
     increases, Her
     overall demand for imported coal 'on average' can be expected to
     increase.
     Global steel production hit a new record
     World crude steel production rose 7.0% year-on-year to a new monthly
     record of 129.3 Mt in March, according to data from the World Steel
     Association. Total global output in the 1q11 was 371.5 Mt, up 8.8%
     from the year-ago level. Asia contributed 64% of total production in
     the first three months of the year, at 237.3 Mt, with an increase of
     9.1% year-on-year. January-March production in Europe was 6.9% higher
     at 45.6 Mt while the US produced 7.1% more year-on-year.
     This simply emphasises the real problem for steel producers and end
     users.
     The increasing WW demand for iron ore and coking coal continues to
     outpace WW
     ability to physically mine and export it and is the one fact that will
     sustain a
     rising trend in both iron ore and coal prices at the expense of dry bulk
     freight
     which is hugely over supplied as compared to maximum possible exports.

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19
</description>
    <date>2011-04-21 16:50:32</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/953563_-alpha-insight-china-chinese-coal-imports-ww-steel.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ben.preisler@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>954517</id>
    <title>Re: London Terror Surveillance (not for pub)
</title>
    <description>   granted we have a strong theory about the GCHQ/MI6 officer who was killed,
   but could this person or persons conducting surveillance have been
   involved?

   (though it really does look like the GCHQ guy locked himself in a bag and
   couldn't get out....)
   Fred Burton wrote:

     aQ terrorist surveillance has been positively identified outside of MI6
     Hqs in London.  MI5 is monitoring the terrorist suspect observed
     conducting the pre-operational surveillance.   
      
      

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-09-24 02:21:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-16 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/954517_re-london-terror-surveillance-not-for-pub-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>954679</id>
    <title>London Terror Surveillance (not for pub) 
</title>
    <description>   aQ terrorist surveillance has been positively identified outside of MI6
   Hqs in London.  MI5 is monitoring the terrorist suspect observed
   conducting the pre-operational surveillance.   
    
    
</description>
    <date>2010-09-24 00:01:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-16 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/954679_london-terror-surveillance-not-for-pub-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>955624</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - MOLDOVA - Part II - Transdniestria &amp; Russia
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE: MD101
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Washington &amp; Chisinau
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Head of Moldovan Lobby in Washington, but lives
   partially in Chisinau &amp; super close to most politicians
   PUBLICATION: yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

   TRANSDNIESTRIA

   The a**suspensiona** of financial aid and cooperation between banks to
   Transdniestria has three facets. First off, it is only the a**officiala**
   suspension of funds. Russia only recognized that it gave funds officially
   to Transdniestria a few years ago. So the funds will now just be
   unofficial. No one believes that the funds will stop a** especially in
   Transdniestria.

   The next issue is that Russia is sick of the political situation inside of
   Transdniestria surrounding the funds. In February Russia sent a letter to
   President Smirnov to not a**misusea** funds from Russia. Russia knew that
   the funds were being handled by Smirnova**s son, Oleg, who heads the main
   bank in the secessionist republic. Meaning the funds stayed inside the
   Smirnov family and didna**t impact the people in Transdniestria a** so it
   is hard for it to influence the people. So, Russia then did an a**audita**
   of the transfers and found a bunch of discrepancies a** giving them the
   ability to justify the a**officiala** cut-off. Now Russia can funnel the
   funds their own way.

   Lastly, this is a statement for Moldova proper and the region a** as if
   Russia is more interested in Moldova proper instead of Transdniestria.
   This made it look to Moldova proper that Russia was pulling its support
   for Transdniestriaa*| leading the public in Moldova to consider linking to
   Moscow. It is all about influencing the elections.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer/Beijing Correspondent, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-10-01 04:10:28</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-05 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/955624_insight-moldova-part-ii-transdniestria-and-russia-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>955839</id>
    <title>RE: Labor Day Review of Where We Are
</title>
    <description>   Can I get 30 minutes of G's time sometime this week?

    

   From: George Friedman [mailto:friedman@att.blackberry.net]
   Sent: Tuesday, September 06, 2011 3:07 PM
   To: Kevin Stech
   Subject: Re: Labor Day Review of Where We Are

    

   Sure

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Kevin Stech" &lt;kevin.stech@stratfor.com&gt;

   Date: Tue, 6 Sep 2011 15:02:20 -0500 (CDT)

   To: 'George Friedman'&lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;

   Subject: RE: Labor Day Review of Where We Are

    

   I would like to talk with you about these and other thoughts. Can I have
   Susan schedule something?

    

   From: Kevin Stech [mailto:kevin.stech@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Monday, September 05, 2011 7:02 PM
   To: George Friedman
   Cc: rbaker@stratfor.com
   Subject: RE: Labor Day Review of Where We Are

    

   George,

    

   There is a part of the company that you did not mention in this missive,
   and that is the research department. There was probably no need to make
   this mention, but I want to make sure a few things are on your radar.

    

   Research is a group that must grow and evolve in step with other changes
   occurring within the company. I've identified several large gaps in our
   capabilities that I plan to help remedy. I have attached a word document
   with my thoughts. Please give them due consideration.

    

   Thank you,

    

   Kevin

    

    

   From: stratforaustin-bounces@stratfor.com
   [mailto:stratforaustin-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of George Friedman
   Sent: Monday, September 05, 2011 14:55
   To: allstratfor
   Subject: Labor Day Review of Where We Are

    

   THIS IS FOR INTERNAL STRATFOR USE ONLY. DO NOT SHARE THIS DOCUMENT OR
   DISCUSS IT OUTSIDE OF STRATFOR.

    

    

    

   I hope you've all had a great Labor Day Weekend. This Labor Day marks a
   turning point in Stratfor's history, and I wanted to share my thoughts
   with you and some plans. It used to be, not so long ago, that we were so
   small that information flowed to all hands by itself.  It is hard for me
   to recognize sometimes that this is no longer true, so I will provide an
   extensive review of where we are and what is coming.  Some of this will be
   old hat to some of you; some of this will be new.  This is an attempt to
   start getting everyone on the same page. 

    

   Historically, Stratfor was unique in a number of ways. First, we accepted
   no advertising. Second, we charged for our subscriptions. Finally, we were
   revenue driven. We build the company from our revenues.  This kept us
   independent, it kept us free to experiment-and at times fail, it kept us
   tight. We were reaching a point where we our revenues did not keep up with
   our needs and market opportunities.

    

   Shea Morenz provided us with two opportunities.  First, he made an
   investment in Stratfor designed to give us the capital needed to build our
   staff and our marketing.  Second, he proposed a new venture, StratCap,
   which would allow us to utilize the intelligence we were gathering about
   the world in a new but related venue-an investment fund. Where we had
   previously advised other hedge funds. We would now have our own, itself
   fully funded by Shea.  Shea invested over $2 million in Stratfor and more
   in StratCap. In return he took a seat on Stratfor's board and a minority
   position in Stratfor, whose control remains in Don's and my hands.  It was
   a good deal for Stratfor, a good deal for StratCap, and since the deal
   closed officially on August 1, we now have the task of doing what we all
   want-building Stratfor and StratCap.

    

   Our cash position is not spectacular by any means, but we have the
   resources to build the kind of company we want, when that investment is
   combined with our revenues.  With cash under control we need to address
   the next problem-people. We all are doing more than our share to keep
   things going.  In some ways that good but it can be overdone, and we are
   overdoing it throughout the company.  Our job now is to expand the team. 
   Money is one element of that, but relieving the pressure we are under in a
   way increases the pressure, because we have to recruit and train new
   people. So it gets harder before it gets easier, and that's the point we
   are at.

    

   Let's divide our departments into two groups.  There are those departments
   that must train their own people, particularly in intelligence beyond the
   normal training needed by new employees.  We do that because no one thinks
   of the world like Stratfor, and that means that we can't hire people from
   other organizations, or at least not without a major training programming,
   which in our experience lasts up to two years.  Then there are departments
   that don't have this burden and that can hire people readily from other
   organizations.  Both groups of departments must grow and train, but the
   burden of training is much heavier in the Intelligence departments that
   train their staff from the bottom up than on other departments.  It is
   important for everyone to understand this distinction.  It is not that
   people in Intelligence are more important or more valuable than those in
   other departments.  It just means they face different problems in growing
   and that if they don't grow, other things can't happen.

    

   Now let's consider the tasks ahead.  First and foremost-and always first
   and foremost-we must be the world's leading private intelligence
   organization (and one of the finest intelligence organizations, period)
   and we must sell our intelligence through publishing.  Our current staff
   has done an outstanding job, but they are thin and sometimes we are weak. 
   We must do better in economics, and we must make certain that no AOR
   depends on only one person. There are lots of things that are needed. 

    

   Second, we are committed to supporting StratCap, a private fund that will
   begin operations some time this coming spring. What StratCap will do is
   use our Stratfor's intelligence and analysis to trade in a range of
   geopolitical instruments, particularly government bonds, currency and the
   like in the world's emerging markets.  Shea Morenz initiated this idea and
   leads it.  At the root of StratCap is a simple idea: Stratfor should put
   its money where its mouth is.  It does not conflict with Stratfor, but is
   an extension of it.

    

   Do not think of StratCap as an outside organization.  It will be integral
   to Stratfor, in the sense that much of the intelligence we are developing
   is useful to Stratcap as well as Stratfor.  The organizational and legal
   distinctions are real and important, but StratCap is linked to Stratfor
   intellectually and contractually.  It will be useful to you if, for the
   sake of convenience, you think of it as another aspect of Stratfor and
   Shea as another executive in Stratfor. 

    

   Let me also add that it is our commitment that all our team will benefit
   if StratCap is successful through some mechanism to be defined. This isn't
   an attempt to get you to work harder for the same money.  But that
   discussion must wait until the legal and administrative relationships of
   StratCap and its relation to Stratfor are worked out and reviewed by
   something called "compliance officers," people who make certain that we do
   not violate any regulations. 

    

   From that point of view, StratCap is something under construction.  You
   can see Shea Morenz hammering away building it in the corner office he
   took from Darryl. In the world of StratCap, corner offices are marketing
   tools.  This points to the fact that StratCap will be building its own
   staff and they come from a different world from Stratfor with a different
   culture.  That said, we have a great deal to learn from StratCap to
   strengthen Stratfor's understanding of economics and it has much to learn
   from us.  We are already working on mock portfolios and trades, testing
   our skills.  Kendra, Korena, Melissa, Jen, Peter, Meredith and myself are
   all involved in this along with Shea and Alfredo, a trader that makes us
   easy to understand compared to him. It's going pretty well in fact, but
   supporting StratCap will be a cultural and intellectual challenge.  It's
   important now to recognize that it is already here, growing and we will
   accommodate to it and it to us.

    

   I want to emphasize is that there is neither a legal, intellectual nor
   moral tension between Stratfor and StratCap.  We will continue to publish
   what we think is true.  StratCap is interested in our broad ideas but
   mostly in the obscure nuggets picked up by intelligence that are usually
   of little interest to our general readers.  My pledge to you and our
   readers is that our publication will remain untouched by StratCap-because
   they are merely different sides of the same coin, intelligence.

    

   We have also been asked to help the United States Marine Corps and other
   government intelligence organizations to teach them how Stratfor does what
   it does, and train them in becoming government Stratfors. We are beginning
   this project by preparing a three-year forecast for the Commandant of the
   Corps.  This is a double honor for us.  First, the professional
   intelligence community is acknowledging us as being the gold standard of
   intelligence.  Second, we are being asked to use our honest and unhedged
   views to support what is for Stratfor-an American company-its homeland. 
   Again, as with StratCap, there is no tension. We will tell the U.S.
   government precisely what we tell our readers and we think ourselves.  Our
   first lesson to the government is that intelligence organizations exist to
   make decision makers uncomfortable, not to make them feel better about
   their decisions. I didn't come this far to compromise on that. 

    

   Add to this that the fact that Turkish Chamber of Commerce (not its name
   but close enough; its name is TUSIAD) asked us to preside over their 40th
   anniversary celebration, and that the Turkish Foreign Minister and Energy
   Minister will speak at the event, and you can see both our global
   recognition and our commitment to speak the same words to every country.
   We can serve the world from the same platform.

    

   So think about it.  We have three triumphs.  First, our publication is now
   read by almost 300,000 people (counting our corporate accounts).  We are a
   major force around the world.  Second, Shea-a guy who has played with the
   big boys at Goldman Sachs, asked us to play in the majors with him. 
   Third, the USMC has asked for our help, and with them others in the
   defense community.  These are three validations of us that are precious to
   me.

    

   Obviously, there is no way in the world that we can do all these
   things-plus the endless little projects that we must do all the time-with
   the staff we have.  And given that we take two years to train new
   analysts, and all of this is on us now-we have an urgent problem.  We
   can't punt opportunities at hand and continue at our current size. Nor can
   we easily expand.  So we will therefore expand with difficulty.  There is
   no choice.  Our Analyst Development Program is the means where we train
   people and find new analysts as well as find some staff for publishing
   (watch officers, monitors, operations center and writers all under Jenna
   Colley). We will have the largest group of ADPs ever this fall, starting
   next week.  About 13 people at last count will be joining us.  This is a
   huge percentage of the number of analysts on staff. Ideally all will work
   out well and our crisis will be over.  That's unlikely but our crisis will
   be mitigated by January 1. Doing this will put a huge burden on
   Intelligence, who must do their work and also train these people, but
   there is no choice.  This is the year when we break out.  I promise to
   work side by side with the team in training and growing he organization. 
   I also promise that if we succeed, we will become one of the most
   significant and prestigious foreign policy publications in the world-and
   those that made it happen will be known.  I know there are questions about
   by-lines. You know my hesitation, but we will figure out together someway
   to make sure that the glory is shared.

    

   Intelligence is divided into three parts.  There is Strategic Intelligence
   (under Rodger assisted by Reva) that is organized geographically.  There
   is Tactical Intelligence (under Stick, assisted by Nate Hughes) that is
   organized thematically-organized crime, cyber-warfare, military,
   terrorism, security, financial flows, supply chain and so on.  There is
   then intelligence gathering, under Meredith, assisted by Jen Richmond that
   is building sources from around the world.  All of them must grow
   dramatically.  The first two will grow mostly out of the ADP pool. The
   latter will be done by extensive work in the field.  But it is the Writers
   Group that is making the most impressive evolution.  Under Jenna (and Tim
   French and Maverick) it has moved into the heart of intelligence, writing
   as well as editing.  Everyone should watch this team. They are pioneering
   things the world hasn't seen yet. Along with Watch Officers, monitors and
   the operations center, this unit is translating intelligence into product
   with increasing effectiveness.  It is now organizationally mature and
   ready to both grow and sustain the growth of Intelligence.

    

   This growth will put a tremendous strain on other departments. Leticia has
   done a tremendous job in Human Resources, but the job has grown much
   greater than she can possibly manage.  Just the process of getting visas
   for new ADPs is overwhelming, and at least half of these come from other
   countries.  We have selected an HR consulting firm to support her in the
   coming months and other solutions will be found to sustain this. HR will
   become more effective in the next months. In addition, we are retaining a
   law firm to create a policy for Stratfor on Foreign Corrupt Practices
   Act.  I don't plan to do the perp walk and I don't want anyone here doing
   it either.  We need some clear guidelines on the law and are getting them,
   particularly as we ramp our intelligence capability. Similarly finance has
   kept us all going and similarly it has to expand, although it is a shade
   less pressured than HR is.

    

   IT faces a huge challenge.  Traditional IT organizations focus on the
   development of new capabilities for a company and sustaining complex
   systems. At Stratfor, the focus must also be on sustaining basic systems
   like phones, email, configuring and fixing laptops and cell phones and so
   on-the basic tools that make our work possible and which are a particular
   challenge in a global company operating 24-7.  That gives our IT
   department a different shape and tempo than exists in other companies.
   With this class of ADPs, 24-7 will become very real.  IT is under pressure
   to maintain its focus on improving the web site and corporate systems but
   has a special and intense mission of supporting a growing, global company
   at the ground level, and the pressure is never going to be greater than
   now with all the new people coming on board in all departments. Creating
   an IT department that fits our peculiar needs will be Frank's challenge.

    

   I want to also point to two departments that are performing extremely
   well.  Customer Service at Stratfor is among the best in the business.  We
   daily get emails praising their work. John Gibbons has done an amazing job
   keeping this going.  More subscribers mean more customer service of
   course.

    

   Also to be mentioned is he on-line marketing team who has just done
   something very impressive. There is usually a slump in subscriptions after
   a Red Alert, and there was one, but in a matter of weeks they pitched in
   and turned it around with some strange and wonderful campaigns.  They have
   broken their forecast in spite of a pretty quiet world.  Its amazing the
   kind of ads that work!

    

   Let's turn to marketing and sales and the future.  Our readership is now
   about 5 percent of the Economist when we exclude corporate (not sure why
   we exclude corporate but that's what we do).  That means that we have
   probably saturated a good part of the early adopters market-the early
   adopters who love us and have built us-and put up with our weaknesses.
   It's kind of like people who supported Apple in its dark days, putting up
   with promising but not yet mature computers.  If you haven't read,
   "Crossing the Chasm," a rare business book that is actually helpful,
   please take a look at it.  It will explain much of what we are trying to
   achieve in marketing.

    

   We have no choice but to grow.  If we stay this size someone larger, with
   deep pockets will notice the market we have created and come in after us. 
   We won't be able to compete.  The only protection is market share, to be
   so dominant a force in the market that no one challenges us and our own
   deep pockets.  For this we must grow revenue and that means readership. 
   The place we must grow is in the mainstream.  I don't mean by mainstream
   CNN. I mean readers who are interested in what we have, but aren't
   fanatics, groupies and wannabes.  These people have higher standards in
   production values, and less forgiveness for mistakes. They don't buy the
   mystique.  They buy the publication. That's where most of our customers
   are and where we have to go.

    

   Obviously this is one of the reasons we need more people.  It is also the
   reason we must deliver in new ways.  Grant Perry and his team are looking
   at ways to create a unique, Stratfor video culture. I see this myself as
   consisting of much longer and serious conversations among analysts
   moderated by an anchor, documentaries, briefings. Perhaps our Sitreps
   should all be delivered via video and audio (there is I think huge demand
   for audio products in cars, or so many people tell me).  All of this will
   evolve in unexpected directions under Grant, Colin, Brian, Andrew and
   others who will join them. This is part of our own evolution into the
   mainstream, on our own terms, with our own voice. What you see above, by
   the way, are simply my own ideas, not fully thought out.  Whatever Grant
   and his team produce will be uniquely Stratfor.

    

   Other than that we shall see.  What markets we will enter, and how we
   enter them is not yet known. We do know that the current Stratfor product,
   however enhanced, will be our only offering.  We will not be developing
   new products for markets. 

    

   We have hired a consultant, Mark Stacey, who will guide this process.  We
   will also be bringing in a consulting firm to do survey research and
   interviews to teach us more about our current readers, readers who won't
   buy us, and readers who would buy us if they had heard of us.  Our choice
   was between hiring staff to give us a plan or hiring consultants to give
   us a plan and then hiring permanent staff to execute it.  The latter is
   the safest-we avoid a staff without the skill to do what we need whom
   instead craft a plan to do what they already know.  In addition to this
   initiative, we are participating in the University of Texas Business
   School program where a team of graduate students will essentially parallel
   the work of our outside consultants, giving us a double check on the
   data. 

    

   The goal here is to have a marketing and sales plan in place for execution
   on January 1.  From where I sit, the biggest challenge we have is that too
   many people have never heard of us.  At a meeting I can encounter someone
   who has subscribed for years and next to him is a person in the same
   industry that has never heard of us.  It is difficult selling to people
   who have never heard of us.  So our challenge-before trying to sell to
   them-is to increase awareness of who we are.  This is called branding and
   it's different from selling.  It is the precursor.  We will start with
   branding in January. That means there will be marketing people around
   asking many questions in the coming months, frequently the same ones.
   Please work with all of them.  In the end, we will have a plan with a high
   likelihood of success.

    

   Parallel to all of this, the executives (without Don, Steve Feldhaus or
   myself-the board members) are going through a planning process of their
   own, coordinated by Frank Ginac.  Not being on it (and not wanting to be
   informed of what is going on as there should be yet another set of eyes on
   things other than mine) I can't tell you what they are doing.  However,
   the deal we have on this is that as CEO, I will proceed with implementing
   my own plans that I've outlined here, and will consider their proposals
   when I see them. If the decision point is past when they make their
   recommendation on a subject, the recommendation will not be considered. 
   If they come in with recommendations before decision points, their
   recommendations will be taken very seriously.  This allows the company to
   move forward and an alternative planning model to be brought on line when
   it is ready.

    

   The company has become too large and complex for any one person to know
   what is going on.  I am moving (with difficulty) from the role of an early
   entrepreneur, knowing everything going on and getting involved in it, to
   the CEO of a company at the inflexion point.   The inflexion point is the
   point all companies dream of and few achieve-when they start really taking
   off.  This is a great point and a dangerous one.  Unless the company
   changes the way it does things, inflexion aborts.  I am trying to change
   what I do.

    

   There are some things that have to remain my responsibility.  Building
   Intelligence and publishing and particularly training new staff are things
   that I should oversee.  Building the intelligence capabilities of the
   company along with Meredith is also my responsibility.  Creating new
   models to support Stratcap and helping to train Stratcap in the
   capabilities of Stratfor is mine. Overseeing our training of the Marine
   Corps is something I want to do.  Kendra will be my deputy for this, but
   this leaves a large load on me.

    

   Along with this, for better or worse, I am the public face of Stratfor. 
   My speeches and travels build the brand, create intelligence
   opportunities, and give me a clearer vision of how the world works.  I
   will be doing a lot of traveling to do these things, and I will combine
   them with the Geopolitical Journeys concept that seems to have hit a
   nerve.  During my travels I will be doing articles, videos and writing a
   book based on those journeys, on the world's borderlands.  Between that
   and making contacts for Stratfor and StratCap, I will be busy.

    

   Along with that load is going to be setting the broad direction of the
   company.  Through long and sometimes painful experience I have learned
   that ultimate responsibility can be delegated but not abandoned.  It's an
   old military principle that applies here. I have a vision for Stratfor and
   while I will delegate, I will not turn over responsibility because I
   can't.

    

   That means that we will need an evolving management structure.  I've asked
   Don who is formally President of Stratfor to join Darryl in both the day
   to day management of the company and in what we still call "the business
   side."  One day we will simply be one company, but right now we are still
   two sides of one company.  Don and Darryl will now manage that side,
   implementing our plans there.  I will not disappear, but become
   intermittent on daily management but deeply focused on intelligence.

    

   One of the other things I must do is prepare a succession plan.  In some
   parts that are well developed, I already have that plan.  In other parts,
   we have to build an organization to have a succession plan.  But it is my
   intention that Stratfor survive me (no, I'm not feeling poorly and can
   still kick your ass).  I want to build this into the world's finest
   intelligence service, private and free to speak its mind.  I see this as
   the most lasting contribution I can make, and I am serious about making
   sure Stratfor goes on.

    

   We are all at the inflexion point where the level of effort temporarily
   soars until new resources are brought on line.  They couldn't have been
   staged in earlier because there weren't resources available.  But now they
   can't wait, because the moment will pass and perhaps never return.  For
   everything there is a "now."  This is now.

    

   I ask only one specific thing of all of you. If you don't understanding
   anything here; if you want to learn more; if something worries you and
   your boss can't clear it up, come directly to me. I will be available
   until the last week of September when I go with others to Turkey.  Please,
   please, please, do not engage in a round of paranoia or speculation based
   on lack of data.  Just set a time to see me and let's discuss it. 
   StratFantasy (a new term) is I really believe the greatest danger to
   success that we have face.

    

   This is a long review, but many have said they'd like to know where we are
   and what we are doing.  This is about as comprehensive as I can get. There
   will be more such reports.  There are no short versions about where we are
   and what we are doing.

    

    

   OH YES-THIS IS FOR INTERNAL STRATFOR USE ONLY. DO NOT SHARE THIS DOCUMENT
   OR DISCUSS IT OUTSIDE OF STRATFOR.

    

   --

   George Friedman

   Founder and CEO

   STRATFOR

   221 West 6th Street

   Suite 400

   Austin, Texas 78701

    

   Phone: 512-744-4319

   Fax: 512-744-4334

    
</description>
    <date>2011-09-06 22:59:42</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/955839_re-labor-day-review-of-where-we-are-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>copeland@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>956994</id>
    <title>Re: Cat3 for comment - Argentina/China - An intensifying trade spat
</title>
    <description>   not as good as China when you compare demand, also have to look at price
   competitiveness
   On May 19, 2010, at 11:13 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

     This looks good.  My only thought is Argentina is playing a dangerous
     game that could backfire at negotiations.  China has alternative for soy
     imports.  Argentina doesn't seem to have that many alternatives for
     Chinese exports, or do they?

     Reva Bhalla wrote:

       hah, wow. i got my election dates completely mixed up. thanks for
       comments. will incorporate
       On May 19, 2010, at 11:04 AM, Allison Fedirka wrote:

         Reva Bhalla wrote:

           In a move that is sure to escalate Argentina's ongoing trade spat
           with China, Argentina's Ministry of Tourism and Industry announced
           May 19 that it has imposed new anti-dumping measures on Chinese
           and Indonesian textiles. The new measures impose a 14.28 percent
           duty on Chinese polyester yarn and a 7.52 percent duty on
           Indonesian polyester yarn. In the midst of the global economic
           crisis in 2009, Argentina imposed 18 anti-dumping measures on
           Chinese goods, ranging from steel to pipes to textiles, as Buenos
           Aires watched its balance of trade surplus gradually shrink under
           economic pressures at home and abroad (Argentina reported a trade
           deficit with China of $600 million in the first two months of
           2010.)

           Beijing's retaliation strategy quickly honed in on Argentina's
           soybean product exports to China. On April 1, China issued a
           warning to importers of Argentine soybean oil, claiming that
           Argentina's soybean oil contained unacceptably high traces of
           solvents. Shortly thereafter, China transferred the right to issue
           permits for soy imports to the Ministry of Commerce, where central
           government authorities stopped issuing permits to import Argentine
           soybean oil. While Argentina reportedly supplied China with 77
           percent of its soybean oil in 2009, Argentina's overall market
           share of Chinese soybean imports has fallen from 33 percent in
           2007/08 to 15 percent in 2008/09 due to severe drought conditions
           and the government's ongoing battle with local farmers over the
           state's populist-driven price controls and export tariffs on
           Grains (yes they tax other food products but the big protests were
           related to grains) food products.

           Chinese soybean demand is meanwhile on a steady rise, and the
           Chinese government has been encouraging Chinese firms to search
           for alternative sources of soybean products. Those alternative
           sources are mainly Brazil and  the United States, who already
           export large volumes of soybean to China and have the capacity to
           expand that trade. China is also looking to move up the value
           chain in soybean production and reduce imports of soybean oil by
           expanding its domestic crushing capacity, an endeavor in which US
           firms ADM, Bunge, Cargill and Louis Dreyfus are heavily invested.
           STRATFOR sources have indicated that the Chinese ban on Argentine
           soybean oil was in part intended to apply pressure on Buenos Aires
           to repeal its anti-dumping measures on Chinese goods, but
           Argentina instead appears to be trying to bolster its own
           bargaining position by imposing fresh duties on Chinese goods
           before an Argentine trade delegation heads to Beijing May 31-June
           1 to try and work these issues out.

           Argentina is likely to struggle in finding alternatives to offset
           the loss in soybean trade with China. Argentine farmers, already
           under heavy financial duress  have shifted to exportable crops
           like soybeans that are not consumed in Argentina (and thus not
           subject to state price controls) in an attempt to turn a profit . 
           Through hefty export taxes, the government has been trying to
           force farmers into producing more essential foods, like wheat,
           that can be produced and consumed at home, but such price-capped
           crops are not profitable for farmers to sell at home. may want to
           state this sentence first, which helps explain the farmers' shift
           to soy (and then in turn the govts reaction to try and get other
           grains produced) At the same time, soybean farmers are also seeing
           their market share reduced abroad due to the state's spats with
           major buyers like China. Since Argentina is currently in harvest
           season, farmers have laid off protests for now in hopes of a more
           profitable export season beginning in June, but the state's
           reprieve from farmer protests could be short-lived may want to
           explain why - farmers can easily return to protests and or decide
           to temporarily not sell/store their grain if govt controls prevent
           them from getting a profit. While Argentina could look to
           alternative soybean importers in the EU, Japan, Mexico and other
           countries to help compensate for a decline in Chinese trade,
           Argentine farmers would be doing so on the spot market, where they
           already face immense trouble in accessing credit due to
           Argentina's prolonged debt crisis and where the price of Argentine
           grains would be less competitive. The continued deterioration of
           the agricultural sector, exacerbated by trade spats like the one
           playing out currently between Beijing and Buenos Aires, is likely
           to be a significant contributor to social unrest in the five-month
           build -up to the Oct. 2011 presidential elections. um, Oct 2011 is
           17 months off.  but can still talk about problems she's facing
           politically and an opposition congress.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director, Stratfor
 US Mobile: (512) 422-9335
 China Mobile: (86) 15801890731
 Email: richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-05-19 18:23:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-05 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/956994_re-cat3-for-comment-argentina-china-an-intensifying-trade.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>958029</id>
    <title>INSIGHTS - RUSSIA - Details on the privatizations (multiple sources)
</title>
    <description>   LG: I have been working on this with a slew of sources for months (some of
   it since last year).  The reason it took so long is because I had to cross
   check EVERY piece of intel against 3+ other sources because the amount of
   disinformation was astonishing. Because of this, it is hard to send out
   info separately.

   I have not included all the dirt on each company during such a
   privatization because it is not yet translated, but I'll send all that out
   in the interactive request Sunday.

   CODES &amp; DESCRIPTIONS:
   RU131 a** Kremlin thinktanker on econ &amp; pol
   RU171 a** Russian diplomat
   RU157 a** Russian state thinktanker
   RU138 a** Russian econ analyst
   RU134 a** Kremlin economist
   RU102 a** Deputy in ProsGen
   RU131 a** Kremlin policy analyst
   RU108 a** Kremlin strategist
   RU114 a** Aton Anlayst

   The privatizations are about to open soon with the sale of minority shares
   in a dozen companies. The plan is called the a**New Privatization
   Initiativea** and was created in 2009 (LG: which is when Stratfor first
   heard about ita**see intel from Dec 2009). The privatizations are in 2
   categories called a**companiesa** and a**asset companiesa** with the
   former privatization lasting through 2012 and the latter through 2014.

   The company privatizations (not the assets) are expected to earn the
   Russian government an estimated $29 billion. The company privatizations
   are the first list below. The assetsa**which will be made up of 5,000
   small companies mostly made up of firms and assets picked up during the
   financial crisisa** are expected to earn another $20 billion. The largest
   of these a**asseta** companies are also listed below.  So total, the
   government has the potential to earn is $50 billion by end of 2014

   The one thing that the government is still waiting on is the estimations
   if the privatizations can go forward now or wait until the market is ready
   to handle them. But there are already quite a few large investors ready to
   take on this enormous project.

   The government is expected to use the money to eliminate the countrya**s
   budget deficit by 2014 and give it extra stabilization cash all before the
   elections (both 2011 &amp; 2012). This is key because the confidence in the
   government may be high, but everything needs to be perfect and foolproof
   before the elections. Both Kudrin and the economic ministry are working
   together on the economic side of this. The new Kremlin budget is to rely
   upon internal borrowings and income from the privatization of state
   companies. Russia will rely less on external markets.

   Theoretically the shares are up for grabs from both foreign and domestic
   investors.
   It is publicly unclear how the process will take place, though privately
   we all know it will be via Kremlin a**mutual agreementsa** between the
   bidding companies and the Kremlin. Then the decision will be put through
   parliament a** though this is a non-issue.

   On June 15, 2010, a series of amendments came into effect on the laws
   a**On Privatization of State and Municipal Propertya** (aka, Privatization
   Amendments). The amendments give the Kremlin the ability to a**engage
   foreign and domestic entities to arrange and manage the privatization
   processa** on behalf of the Russian firms. Before the Kremlin had to
   influence the deals unless they owned all the pieces being privatized, now
   they can arrange it all no matter if the actual property belongs to
   certain governmental agencies or ministries, etc.

   Many sources did slyly say that should the government decide to
   nationalize in the future it can, but they cana**t say that right now or
   it would scare investors away ;).

   The privatization scheme is a Kudrin plan that has Medvedev-Putina**s
   blessing. Kudrina**s plan is for a**balancea** (LG: which wea**ve
   discussed a million times). Kudrin knows that he cana**t really fully
   privatize these companies, but can still earn enormous cash for small
   pieces of them. It is the balance between the 90s chaos and the 2003-7
   siloviki nationalizations.

   But many in the Kremlin and these companies are against the move. For
   example, Transneft CEO Tokarev (KGB in Dresden with Putin) is against the
   privatization.

   Once these privatizations are done, Kudrin would like to retire. He is
   exhausted by the entire ordeal, but has to see it through because he is
   one of the only men both Putin and Medvedev trust to tackle such a
   project. Also, he knows his luck is almost up with the Sechin clan, who
   would have had him killed by now if he werena**t personally protected by
   the tandem. Instead Sechina**s crew settled for Kudrina**s team instead.

   The move to first put VTB on the market was a plan pushed by Gref
   (Sberbanka**s chairman). There will be 2 tranches of shares put out of
   VTBa**s. The first tranche will be 10 percent and the second will be for
   25 percent. The top company in the running is US investment fund Texas
   Pacific Group. They have already traveled to Russia and spoken with First
   Deputy Premier Shuvalov about this. The first tranche will sell for $3
   billion a** with VTB valued at $30 billion. Another company interested in
   the next tranche is Merill Lynch.

   **any company planning to sell more than ~10% will do it in multiple
   tranches in order to see if the first part will be successful &amp; give the
   government time to reconsider good or bad.

   **the more strategic companies can not have state shares below 75%

   Company                Government Stake            Stake for Sale       
       Status
   Rosneft                           75.16%                           
   24.16%                Stake size under "review"
   Transneft                        78.10%                         3-27.1%   
                   Stake size under "review"
   Sovkomflot                    100%                                25%   
   VTB Bank                    85.50%                            24.50%   
   Rosselxozbank                100%                                49%   
   Russian Railways            100%                            34.99%       
               via subsidiary
   Federal Grid Company    79.11%                        28.11%           
           Stake size under "review"
   RusHydro                        60.38%                        9.38%   
   United Grain Company    100%                         10- 25%   
   Rosagroleasing                99.90%                         10-24%   
   Rosspirtprom                    100%                          10-25%    
   Sberbank                        60.30%                            9.30%   

   A TASTE OF THE ASSETS FOR SALE a** (these alone are $4b)
   Novorossiisk Seaport a** 20%
   Vanino Seaport a** 55%
   Yenisei River Shipping Company a** 25.5%
   Sakhalin Sea Shipping Company a** 25.5%
   Murmansk Seaport a** 34%
   SG-Trans Moscow a** 100%
   Tuapse Seaport a** 25%
   Volga River Shipping 25.5%
   Murmansk Sea Shipping Company a** 25.5%
   Northwestern Sea Shipping (St. Petes) a** 25.5%
   Koltsova Airport (Ekatrinburg) a** 34.5%
   Tomachevo Airport (Novosibirsk) a** 51%

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-10-08 22:08:52</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/958029_insights-russia-details-on-the-privatizations-multiple.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reginald.thompson@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>959180</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - MOLDOVA - Part 3 - Germany, US, Romania, Ukraine
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE: MD101
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Washington &amp; Chisinau
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Head of Moldovan Lobby in Washington, but lives
   partially in Chisinau &amp; super close to most politicians
   PUBLICATION: yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

   GERMANY

   As far as Germany, Germans have a**historica** ties to having former
   villages and pockets of former population in Moldova. Russia kicked them
   out, so there is a strange resentment between Germany and Russia over
   Moldova.

   But this isna**t a red-line.

   Instead, it is more about how the Moldova solidification will ripple
   through Central Europe. But Germany can contain Russiaa**s move if it gets
   an answer on Transdniestria. This will allow Germany to say to Europe
   a**see, if we work with Russia, then we can accept your ruling there.
   Germanya**s representative on the issue a** Patricia Flor a** told Russia
   that if Moscow could get a resolution between Transdniestria and Moldova
   started then Germany would be more open to Russia controlling the country.
   Germany also said that if Russia could get a resolution started then the
   rest of the EU would see it as a positive step in security assurances to
   Europe.

   UKRAINE, ROMANIA &amp; US

   Ukraine is on board with whatever Russia wants on the Moldova issue,
   moreover it will help Russia with whatever is needed to help consolidate
   the country.

   Romania is simply terrible at influencing the country. Sure it wants to
   hold Moldova from Russia and to its own. But Romania has not done any
   grassroots moves. The US as asked Romania to set up NGOs, media, etca*|.
   it hasna**t. Romania tried after the last election to set up a Moldova
   Fund to invest in the countrya**but it has only given 100 million euros
   thus far a** which is nothing.

   The US has NO ONE interested in the country. Literally, the lobby in
   Washington has no ties in government a** especially Congress, Senate, NSC,
   etc. The only thing is a Moldova desk at State a** which means nothing.
   There is even no USAID to Moldova. Sure MMC gives some money to Moldova,
   but only $262 million.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer/Beijing Correspondent, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-10-01 04:10:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-05 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/959180_insight-moldova-part-3-germany-us-romania-ukraine-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>960085</id>
    <title>Stratfor's World Snapshot
</title>
    <description>    Stratfor logo                       December 7, 2010                      
   Stratfor's World Snapshot                                                  
                                                                              
    The Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks' Survival                                
    FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP/Getty Images                                         
    WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange at the United Nations office in Geneva   
    on Nov. 5                                                                 
                                                                              
   The Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks' Survival                                 
                                                                              
    December 7, 2010 1646 GMT                                                 
    The arrest of the WikiLeaks founder raises questions about the            
    organization's ability to survive, but the use of the Internet to leak    
    documents will persist. [more]                                            
    Russia's Intensifying Diplomatic Courtship of Europe                      
                                                                              
   Russia's Intensifying Diplomatic Courtship of Europe                       
                                                                              
    December 7, 2010 1314 GMT                                                 
    Russia is launching a diplomatic offensive meant to strengthen Moscow's   
    ties with Poland, Italy and the European Union. [more]                    
    Mexico Security Memo: Dec. 6, 2010                                        
                                                                              
   Mexico Security Memo: Dec. 6, 2010                                         
                                                                              
    December 6, 2010 2252 GMT                                                 
    The arrest in Mexico of two Guatemalans on charges of weapon smuggling    
    highlights the often-ignored arms trafficking into Mexico from elsewhere  
    in Latin America. (With STRATFOR interactive map) [more]                  
    A Re-emerging Sweden Sets Its Sights on Eastern Europe                    
                                                                              
   A Re-emerging Sweden Sets Its Sights on Eastern Europe                     
                                                                              
    December 6, 2010 2215 GMT                                                 
    For the first time in more than a year, Sweden is attempting to pursue    
    its foreign policy objectives. A number of developments indicate it may   
    be trying to assert itself farther into Eastern Europe. [more]            
                                                                              
    More Analysis &gt;&gt;                                                          
                                                                              
   Situation Reports                                                          
                                                                              
   Iran: Rift Within Ahmadinejad's Government - Former Diplomat               
                                                                              
    December 7, 2010 1653 GMT                                                 
    During a meeting at France's Center of Political and Foreign Affairs,     
    Mohammed Reza Heydari, a former Iranian diplomat who defected to Norway   
    in February 2010, commented on a rift within the... [more]                
                                                                              
   Iran: North Korean Technicians Seen At Tehran Airport - Former Diplomat    
                                                                              
    December 7, 2010 1653 GMT                                                 
                                                                              
   U.S.: Increased Access To Australian Military Bases Sought                 
                                                                              
    December 7, 2010 1651 GMT                                                 
                                                                              
   Indonesia: Maritime Security Budget To Increase                            
                                                                              
    December 7, 2010 1631 GMT                                                 
    More Situation Reports &gt;&gt;                                                 
                                                                              
   Weekly Intelligence Reports                                                
                                                                              
    Geopolitical Journey, Part 8: Returning Home                              
                                                                              
   Geopolitical Journey, Part 8: Returning Home                               
                                                                              
    December 7, 2010 0956 GMT                                                 
    Simply put, there are fewer risks in Texas than in Central Europe. Part   
    eight in a series. [more]                                                 
    Geopolitical Journey, Part 7: Poland                                      
                                                                              
   Geopolitical Journey, Part 7: Poland                                       
                                                                              
    December 3, 2010 1227 GMT                                                 
    Attacks on Nuclear Scientists in Tehran                                   
                                                                              
   Attacks on Nuclear Scientists in Tehran                                    
                                                                              
    December 1, 2010 2354 GMT                                                 
    Geopolitical Journey, Part 6: Ukraine                                     
                                                                              
   Geopolitical Journey, Part 6: Ukraine                                      
                                                                              
    November 30, 2010 0955 GMT                                                
    Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                                
    (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 18:12:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/960085_stratfor-s-world-snapshot-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>allstratfor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>noreply@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>960134</id>
    <title>RE: ANALYSIS PROPOSAL - 2 - Intelligence on Luzhkov's replacement. 
</title>
    <description>   Sounds good. Let's keep it tight.

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Lauren Goodrich
   Sent: Monday, October 11, 2010 2:57 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: ANALYSIS PROPOSAL - 2 - Intelligence on Luzhkov's replacement.

    

   Over the weekend, Russia's ruling party, United Russia submitted a list of
   candidates to President Dmitri Medvedev to fill the position of Mayor of
   Moscow. Our intelligence from Moscow has said that the most likely choice
   to replace Luzhkov will be Deputy Premier Sergei Sobyanin. Of course,
   Russia is fickle with who finally gets the important governmental spots.
   But intelligence has told Stratfor that Sobyanin was a choice by Putin to
   repay Medvedev for finally sacking Luzhkov. He is a great compromise and
   works well with all power circles in the country. He also has a firm hand
   and creative background to start tackling the tough reforms that Moscow
   needs.

   450 words
   can be out now &amp; can run whenever. 

   INTELLIGENCE:

   CODE: RU102
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Prosecutor General's office
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Deputy ProsGen
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   HANDLER: Lauren

   Thus far, Sobyanin has the post. He is Putin's boy and everyone knows it.
   But he is on very friendly terms with Medvedev. Medvedev won major points
   with Putin by finally and easily removing Luzhkov. Now Putin has replied
   by putting in one of his loyalists, who is very responsive to Medvedev and
   his group. Sobyanin is also a good choice - he has a strong hand over
   cutting the bullshit in the capital.

   CODE: RU102
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Prosecutor General's office
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Deputy ProsGen
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   HANDLER: Lauren

   Luzhkov's ousting was never about Luzhkov - as we all know - it was about
   Baturina and her mob ties. Ousting Luzhkov was the first step. Now it is
   her turn. Criminal investigations from our office into Baturina over her
   company Inteko, its finances, her finances and the OC ties to it are all
   underway. This is going to be a nasty fight.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-10-11 21:07:29</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/960134_re-analysis-proposal-2-intelligence-on-luzhkov-s-replacement.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>960565</id>
    <title>RE: LA Terror Plot (not for pub - pls do not forward)  
</title>
    <description>   The surveillance detection was identified by the TrapWire surveillance
   system.    I'm getting the details on the recons and m.o.   The matter is
   very dicey.  Pls don't pass this around.  Thanks  

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, September 22, 2010 8:33 PM
   To: secure@stratfor.com
   Subject: LA Terror Plot (not for pub - pls do not forward)
   According to a very good source responsible for domestic surveillance
   operations, an extremely serious al Qaeda terror plot has been uncovered
   targeting a financial institution, an entertainment center and a
   government office bldg in Los Angeles.  The same terrorist surveillance
   team conducted pre-operational surveillance of all three sites.   The
   group is currently under watch....
    
   Note -- The NSC has refused disclosure due to the election.  Gotta love
   it.  I'll know more tomorrow. 

   No virus found in this incoming message.
   Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
   Version: 9.0.851 / Virus Database: 271.1.1/3152 - Release Date: 09/22/10
   01:34:00
</description>
    <date>2010-09-23 23:54:36</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-07-24 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/960565_re-la-terror-plot-not-for-pub-pls-do-not-forward-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>962665</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - IRAN/SYRIA - Some details on IRGC and HZ presence in
 Syria - ME1*
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE: sub-source via ME1
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Source 1 is a HZ student activist; Source 2 is a HZ
   media source; both via ME1
   PUBLICATION: Yes - can sitrep
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: C
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: C
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
   can post as STRATFOR sources linked to Hezbollah claim .....  include that
   info has not been verified.

   The first source says 42 IRGC members and 27 HZ fighters were killed in
   Syria during July.  Syrian cargo plane transported the dead Iranians to
   Tehran and several vans transported dead HZ men to Lebanon. He says there
   are in Syria about 3,000 IRGC men and 2,000 HZ fighters, in addition to
   300 Amal Movement men and 200 SNSP militiamen. The IRGC men are leading
   the pro-regime armed gangs. Syrian soldiers who refuse to open fire on
   protesters are killed by the Iranians and pro-Syrian Lebanese allies. The
   Iranians and Lebanese usually stand behind Syrian troops and  kill Syrian
   soldiers immediately if they refuse to open fire. The 17 Syrian troops
   dumped in the Orontes River in Hama were killed by HZ men.  HZ fighters
   are unmistakable because they are bearded and the authorities in Damascus
   say they are salafis. The second source has unconditionally verified the
   claims of the first source
</description>
    <date>2011-08-16 19:11:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/962665_insight-iran-syria-some-details-on-irgc-and-hz-presence-in.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>watchofficer@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>963091</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - MOLDOVA - the German-Russian talks on Transdniestria
	viewed in Moldova
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE: think tank analyst, close to the current Moldovan ambassador to
   the US
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Source
   PUBLICATION: for background
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: 1/2
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1/2 (it's more his analysis on the matter plus some info
   on EU/Germany knowledge)
   DISTRIBUTION: eurasia, analysts
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Antonia

   Let me know if anything is not understandable - translated from a Romanian
   that was much metaphorical.

   On the EU(Germany)-Russia security cooperation - the Moldovans think in
   geographic terms that are very limited; only few persons that have read a
   bit more on history and geography realizes that Moldova is located in the
   'error margin' of the discussions between Russia and Germany. The problem
   that I'm seeing is not related to the 2 partners but to the fact that the
   US is out of the equation, out of the security discussions in the region
   and particularly out of the discussions on Transnistria. This can't be
   advantageous for Moldova: it is better to have on your side the US and the
   EU and not only the EU. The third party presence in the negotiation
   diminishes the possibility to conclude on something that is against the
   Moldovan interest. In the same time, at a larger scale, the substitution
   or the diminishing in importance of the NATO Council-Russia 'partnership'
   and the fact that more parties are involved in the negotiation process on
   the matter makes it less probable that we see any surprises in the future.
   On the other side, the Russians are saying that Russia must not be
   conditioned on anything before signing the pact on the new security
   architecture on Europe.
   The most important problem for Moldova - in case all the discussions go
   further at the operational level - is the fact that we're not prepared for
   the next step. The Moldovan MFA is not discussing with the president, with
   the parliament, etc. In the same time, I've noticed that the people in
   Bruxelles don't know about the negotiations content between Germany and
   Russia, the EU has given its approval in a 'post factum' manner while the
   Germans don't want to talk about it even if they are the only ones knowing
   anything.

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-10-14 10:17:25</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-05 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/963091_insight-moldova-the-german-russian-talks-on-transdniestria.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>964991</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111
</title>
    <description>   this dude really gives the impression that Moscow calls the shots in Kiev

   so basically, Med gets pissed b/c Timo is blowing Putin and not him, so he
   whines to Putin and says drop the B and get behind Yanu like me. Putin
   says fine, Yanu gets excited and oversteps his boundaries, and now Putin
   is like fix this shit Med and Med is like okay, but we dont know what Med
   is actually gonna do to slap Yanu around

   so what's the couterargument to this? Does Russia really have this much
   influence over the situation?  this is something we need to address in
   ukraine reassessment

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marc Lanthemann" &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

   CODE: UA111
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Kiev
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch.
   But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps
   this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to
   begin with.

    

   You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in
   power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew
   Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to
   solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be
   Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most
   easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got
   her in trouble and arrested.

    

   But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no
   respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev
   made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a
   deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if
   Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being
   the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU,
   military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension
   it had been pushing for.

    

   So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009,
   the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing
   to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of
   demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally.

    

   Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev
   to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing
   against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever
   will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-09-14 20:55:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/964991_re-alpha-insight-ukraine-moscow-kiev-spat-ua111-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>966063</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - Libya - Info about Opposition Leadership - LY0700
</title>
    <description>   Source Code: LY700
   PUBLICATION: No, for background only
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Govt security contractor on US Govt assignment in
   Libya
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: Still testing
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: A
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   Follow up from information earlier today --

   Just to put a bow on this,

    

   1.  Abdel-Hakim Belhaj (45 yrs old and pictured in photo below talking on
   mobile), is the new head of the newly created Tripoli Military Council
   (new as of last week of August), with control of some 8,000 troops, the
   biggest fighting force in Libya.

    

   2.  Belhaj has the support of the leader of the rebels' National
   Transitional Council, Mustafa Abdul-Jalil.

    

   3.  Belhaj is former leader of an Islamic militant group (1996 he was
   leader of the now-dissolved Libyan Islamic Fighting Group).

    

   a.    Some branches have had connections with al-Qaida in Sudan,
   Afghanistan or Pakistan. He says in 2004 he was picked up and tortured by
   the agency at a black site prison in Thailand.

    

   4.  Belhaj was sent to Libya's Abu Salim prison, where Gadhafi's regime
   held many political prisoners.

    

   a.       Libyan government freed Belhaj and 33 other members of the
   Islamic Fighting Group in March 2010. Belhaj agreed to renounce violence
   as part of an initiative by Gadhafi's son Seif al-Islam, who at the time
   was considered a reformist voice.

    

   IMPORTANT CONNECTION:

    

   1.           The man that I made a contact with (Mehdi al-Harati,
   commander of the Tripoli Revolutionary Brigade) was appointed as the
   deputy commander of the Tripoli Military Council. He is a strong
   confederate of Belhaj and I've tried to get someone in the current
   administration to consider that he could be used to get close to /
   establish relationship with Belhaj and perhaps upwards thru to Abdul-Jalil
   (...keep your enemies closer). Hard to get folks to listen / think.
</description>
    <date>2011-09-14 20:34:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-19 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/966063_insight-libya-info-about-opposition-leadership-ly0700-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>fred.burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>watchofficer@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>966303</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - CHINA - RIO ESPIONAGE - CN65 [Analytical &amp; Intelligence
	Comments] RE: Australia,	China: Accusations of Espionage
</title>
    <description>So my Aussie intelligence source that I was so worried about because he 
stayed in China incommunicado for over a week decides to get in touch 
with me via STRATFOR!  Ha.  Well anyways, I am resending this as insight 
in case not everyone picks this up.  This is very important and wish 
like hell we woulda got it this morning before I wrote up the CSM.  I 
guess we can always update next week or do a stand-alone piece - thoughts?


SOURCE: CN65
ATTRIBUTION: Former Australian State Senator
SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Source is well-connected politically, militarily 
and economically.  He has become a
private businessman helping foreign companies with M&amp;As
PUBLICATION: Yes
SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
SPECIAL HANDLING: None


&gt;
&gt; Hey Jen,
&gt;
&gt; Just back in Australia, but still only in Perth.  Won't get back to
&gt; Brisbane until 1000 GMT on 10th July.  Happy to take a call after 
&gt; that. You may have missed a related issue on this story.
&gt;
&gt; The day in arrived in China the media announced proposed changes to the
&gt; laws on state secrets.  These include increasing the range of things 
&gt; which
&gt; could constitute revealing or stealing "state secrets".  Of course 
&gt; stealing
&gt; them, or deliberately revealing them, can attract a death sentence.  The
&gt; exact details are contained in clippings, which are in my checked 
&gt; luggage. I will get them once I get home.
&gt;
&gt; In my talks, the Chinese officials were turning themselves inside out 
&gt; over
&gt; Chinalco, and the line given in the official media curiously blamed the
&gt; Opposition.  The reason for this is simply that the Government and Rio
&gt; don't want to admit that they got it seriously wrong.  You recall my
&gt; comment on the clipping you showed me?  The problem is that they tried to
&gt; push their bargaining position too hard instead of revising the deal to
&gt; make it more immediately palatable.
&gt;
&gt; Interestingly, the arrests come not just during the protracted iron ore
&gt; negotiations, but on the very weekend that Rio successfully concluded its
&gt; rights issue to replace most of the cash they were to get from 
&gt; Chinalco.  I
&gt; think these guys were really pissed off by that, and wanted to do 
&gt; something
&gt; to lash out at Rio.  Also, they may have figured that arresting these 
&gt; guys
&gt; would lead to a capitulation by Rio at the negotiating table.
&gt;
&gt; Rudd is copping a flogging for failing to say anything at all on the
&gt; matter, even though the Australian has been in the bag for four days.  
&gt; You
&gt; need to see Greg Sheridan's article in the Australian today.  Also, you
&gt; have a fan at the Australian Fin Review, as Stratfor commentary made up
&gt; half the back page in the Chanticleer column there.
&gt;
&gt; I got out of China a week late, and was very worried for myself for a
&gt; week, but all turned out okay.
&gt;
&gt; Hope all is well at your end.
&gt;
&gt; Bill
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; Source: 
&gt; http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090708_australia_china_accusations_espionage 
&gt;
</description>
    <date>2009-07-10 05:05:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/966303_insight-china-rio-espionage-cn65-analytical-and-intelligence.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>967715</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - MOLDOVA - part 1 - Internal fight &amp; Russia's hand
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE: MD101
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Washington &amp; Chisinau
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Head of Moldovan Lobby in Washington, but lives
   partially in Chisinau &amp; super close to most politicians
   PUBLICATION: yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

   INTERNAL FIGHT &amp; RUSSIAa**S HAND

   First off, Russian influence has never left Moldova. Any politician (save
   those who have no real power) never are serious when they say that they
   are willing to go towards the West.

   The coalition could have been popular in the country if they had one more
   year. The coalition started a series of reforms this past year, but they
   wona**t start taking affect until another year from now. But the people
   dona**t care. They want something tangible now.

   So two things happened in the coalition that has broken it apart. First PM
   Filat struck out on his own and began this huge push across the country to
   raise pensions. Sure, this is a good move in the country, but he did it as
   he and his partya**s plan a** not the coalitiona**s. This was the nail in
   the coffin for the so-called pro-European coalition. By the way, this
   coalition was never really pro-European since both Filat and Lupu work
   with the Russians constantly.

   Then Lupu began forming its formal ties back with Russia. Lupu held out in
   the coalition much longer than anyone expected. The problem was that the
   coalition never gave Lupua**s PDM anything a** meaning any position in the
   government. What was the point of Lupua**s PDM staying in the coalition?

   Now the question is who will work with the Communistsa**since they will
   most likely gain 40% of the vote. On a side note, the Communists are
   debating whether their candidate will be Grechanaya or Stratan.

   Lupu use to be Voronina**s right hand in the Communists. Not because he
   actually believes in the Communist Party, but it was an opportunity for
   him to launch himself in the country. Lupu is an opportunist. When he left
   to start his own party, Voronin lost all respect for Lupu and the
   Communists branded him a traitor. But Lupu has solidified the power of his
   party by expanding his ties with Russia a** hence the tie with ER.

   The next possibility is Filat.

   Russia has asked Voronin to throw his weight either behind Lupu or to
   build a coalition with Filat. Voronin refuses to side with Lupu, so the
   most likely outcome is a coalition with Filat.

   Either way though, Russia will have a victory in ousting the Romanian camp
   a** meaning Ghimpua**s group. He is the only really non-Russia friendly
   force. He is Romanian President Basescua**s lapdog. But Ghimpu doesna**t
   have really any support, especially as he tried to blatently tried to
   rally support for the pro-Romanian movement in the country.

   But no matter what, this election is more about solidifying publicly the
   Russian presence in the country, more than Russia a**re-gaininga** the
   country. Russiaa**s presence never left. It is everywhere a** the media,
   the parties, in the countryside, etc.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer/Beijing Correspondent, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-10-01 04:09:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-05 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/967715_insight-moldova-part-1-internal-fight-and-russia-s-hand-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>968422</id>
    <title>Re: Der Spiegel on Iraq War Logs
</title>
    <description>   So what is new about that? Abu-G has already been detailed. Besides, what
   is US going to do about Iraqi on Iraqi? 

   On Oct 22, 2010, at 5:52 PM, Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

     Humanitarian-wise the Iraqi prisoner abuse will be one of the big
     issues.  Al-J points out FRAGO 242 and FRAGO 039, fragmentary orders
     that require not reporting or reporting prisoner abuse by Iraqi security
     forces. The above sample from the documents mentions them. 

DET ABUSE SUMMARY

     Date
     May 16 2005, 1115
     Type/Category
     Other/Other
     Location
     Al-Musayab, Babylon (MND-C)
     Coordinates
     32.9061584473, 44.1552238464,
     Summary: This is the first mention of fragmentary order (FRAGO) 242,
     which prohibits US forces from conducting any more than a preliminary
     investigation of alleged detainee abuse, unless coalition forces are
     allegedly involved. (The order can be overridden by higher headquarters,
     but there is little evidence that it was in more than a handful of
     cases.)
     NO COALITION FORCES WERE AWARE OR INVOLVED IN THE ABUSE. IRAQI ON IRAQI
     DETAINEE ABUSE SUMMARY 3 18 MAY 2005

     1. IRAQI ON IRAQI (NO US FORCES PERSONNEL WERE INVOLVED) NOTE: MNCI
     FRAGO 039 DTD 29 APRIL 2005 HAS MODIFIED FRAGO 242 AND NOW REQUIRES
     REPORTS OF IRAQI ON IRAQI ABUSE BE REPORTED THROUGH OPERATIONAL
     CHANNELS. INCIDENTS OF DETAINEE ABUSE COMMITTED BY IRAQI FORCES FALL
     WITH MNF-IS CCIR #8. REPORTING WILL BE MADE USING THE FORMAT ATTACHED TO
     MNCI FRAGO 039. PROVIDED THE INITIAL REPORT CONFIRMS US FORCES WERE NOT
     INVOLVED IN THE DETAINEE ABUSE, NO FURTHER INVESTIGATION WILL BE
     CONDUCTED UNLESS DIRECTED BY HHQ.

     ACTION REQUIRED: INITIAL REPORT FORWARDED TO HHQ. ACTION TAKEN: INITIAL
     REPORTS FOR ALL OF THE INCIDENTS DESCRIBED BELOW ARE ATTACHED AND WILL
     BE FORWARDED TO MNCI.

     A. DESCRIPTION OF INCIDENT INVOLVING DETAINEE #0484: DETAINEE #0484,
     [REDACTED], WAS RECEIVED AT RDF KALSU BY GYSGT QUIROZ AT APPROXIMATELY
     0915, 16 MAY 2005. SND WAS TRANSPORTED TO RDF KALSU BY [REDACTED] OF B
     CO. 1-155 INFANTRY FROM FOB ISKANDARIAYAH. SND WAS BROUGHT TO THE RDF
     KALSU WEARING A SLING ON HIS LEFT ARM. SND WAS MEDICALLY EXAMINED BY HM3
     BELIN WHO FOUND SND HAD HIS LEFT ARM HYPER-EXTENDED BY IRAQI POLICE. NO
     COALITION FORCES WERE INVOLVED IN THE INCIDENT. GYSGT QUIROZ REPORTED
     THE INCIDENT TO 1ST LT VARGAS, OIC, RDF KALSU. SND STATED THAT HE WAS
     CAPTURED BY IRAQI POLICE ON 13 MAY 2005 AND TAKEN TO THE MUSAYYIB POLICE
     STATION WHERE HE WAS BEATEN BY IRAQI POLICE.

     B. DESCRIPTION OF INCIDENT INVOLVING DETAINEE #0487: DETAINEE #0487,
     FASIL ALI KLAB WAS RECEIVED AT RDF KALSU BY GYSGT QUIROZ AT
     APPROXIMATELY 0915, 16 MAY 2005. SND WAS TRANSPORTED TO RDF KALSU BY SFC
     WILLIAMS OF B CO, 1-155 INFANTRY FROM FOB ISKANDARIAYAH. SND WAS BROUGHT
     TO THE RDF KALSU WITH BRUISES TO HIS BUTTOCKS. SND WAS MEDICALLY
     EXAMINED BY H

     On 10/22/10 5:43 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       Al Jazeera first video:
       http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2010/10/20101022202210771944.html
       On 10/22/10 5:40 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         10/22/2010
          
         The WikiLeaks Iraq War Logs
         Greatest Data Leak in US Military History
         http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,724845,00.html

         In the greatest leak in the history of the United States military,
         WikiLeaks plans to publish 391,832 classified documents on the Iraq
         on the Internet. The field reports from soldiers cast a new light on
         the war -- documenting in a unique way how the highly armed American
         military was helpless in the conflict for years. By SPIEGEL Staff

         First there were hundreds of thousands of documents from the
         Afghanistan conflict, and now there are hundreds of thousands from
         the Iraq war. WikiLeaks intends to publish a massive collection of
         internal war logs from the United States military early Saturday
         morning. They include some 391,832 field reports from US soldiers
         from a Pentagon database. Taken together, they represent a kind of
         diary of the Iraq war between 2004 and 2009.

         DER SPIEGEL, the London Guardian and the New York Times have
         analyzed and reviewed the documents together with other media
         sources. As was the case with the around 77,000 Afghanistan war logs
         published by WikiLeaks in July, SPIEGEL has taken every measure
         possible to ensure that lives are not put at risk. This includes
         redacting the names of those individuals who could be targeted for
         revenge or of those places at risk of being targeted for collective
         reprisals. The danger publication of the reports could create for
         informants and soldiers in Iraq is the primary concern of the US
         government, which is currently seeking to take action against
         WikiLeaks.

         "We deplore WikiLeaks for inducing individuals to break the law,
         leak classified documents," the Pentagon Press Secretary Geoff
         Morrell told SPIEGEL (see the box below, "US Reaction to Iraq War
         Logs," for the full statement), "and then cavalierly share that
         secret information with the world, including our enemies."

         US REACTION TO IRAQ WAR LOGS
         Click on the headlines to read the responses to SPIEGEL provided by
         Pentagon Press Secretary Geoff Morrell ...
         On the Planned WikiLeaks Publication
         "We deplore WikiLeaks for inducing individuals to break the law,
         leak classified documents and then cavalierly share that secret
         information with the world, including our enemies. We know terrorist
         organizations have been mining the leaked Afghan documents for
         information to use against us and this Iraq leak is more than four
         times as large. By disclosing such sensitive information, WikiLeaks
         continues to put at risk the lives of our troops, their coalition
         partners and those Iraqis and Afghans working with us. The only
         responsible course of action for WikiLeaks at this point is to
         return the stolen material and expunge it from their websites as
         soon as possible."
         On the Episodes Detailed in the Documents
         "We strongly condemn the unauthorized disclosure of classified
         information and will not comment on these leaked documents other
         than to note that 'significant activities' reports are initial, raw
         observations by tactical units. They are essentially snapshots of
         events, both tragic and mundane, and do not tell the whole story.
         That said, the period covered by these reports has been
         well-chronicled in news stories, books and films and the release of
         these field reports does not bring new understanding to Iraq's
         past."

         "However, it does expose secret information that could make our
         troops even more vulnerable to attack in the future. Just as with
         the leaked Afghan documents, we know our enemies will mine this
         information looking for insights into how we operate, cultivate
         sources, and react in combat situations, even the capability of our
         equipment. This security breach could very well get our troops and
         those they are fighting with killed."
         WikiLeaks, the Pentagon argued, continues to put at risk the lives
         of troops, their coalition partners and Iraqis. In addition, Morrell
         added, the reports are "initial, raw observations by tactical units.
         They are essentially snapshots of events, both tragic and mundane,
         and do not tell the whole story." Besides, the Pentagon added, the
         period covered in the reports has already been well-chronicled in
         news stories, books and films.

         A War that Lasted Longer than WWII

         SPIEGEL nevertheless decided to publish the documents because they
         expose additional dimensions to the war. The brief, matter-of-fact
         incident reports offer an unusual perspective on a war that lasted
         longer than World War II.

         They show the everyday aspects of the campaign as US soldiers
         experienced it. The thousands of threat analyses, attack reports and
         arrest records allow a very precise reconstruction of the escalation
         of the sectarian battle between the Shiites and Sunnis, how it
         brutalized Iraqi society and how kidnappings, executions and the
         torture of prisoners became routine practices. The reports also
         provide some evidence that neighboring countries including Syria and
         Iran were involved in the war. SPIEGEL ONLINE will be running a
         series of stories in the coming days shedding additional light on
         aspects of the war, and readers can also browse the complete
         WikiLeaks database in an interactive Iraq map prepared by SPIEGEL
         ONLINE. On Monday, SPIEGEL ONLINE will publish this week's WikiLeaks
         Iraq cover story in English.

         PHOTO GALLERY

             *
             *
             *

         15  Photos
         Photo Gallery: Images of a Bloody War

         The documents included in the WikiLeaks database aren't of the
         highest level of classification -- at most, they are "secret," but
         not "top secret." As such, many of the most sensational events in
         the Iraq war don't make an appearance, including the torture scandal
         at Abu Ghraib. There are other weaknesses, as well -- they are
         one-sided and subjective, unverifiable and, in many cases, were
         produced on the battlefield, making it easier for errors to slip
         through.

         However, they have the cumulative effect of painting a precise
         picture of an asymmetrical war, one in which a superpower equipped
         with state-of-the-art weaponry often stands helpless on the
         battlefield against individual fighting units, as brutal as they are
         nimble. The material shows how the constant state of fear paralyzed
         the world's last remaining superpower. Is the next bomb about to go
         off? Is it around the corner? On the side of the road? Or strapped
         to the body of an insurgent?

         'Bomb Explosion,' 'Under Enemy Fire,' 'Discoveries of Weapons'

         The war logs begin on Jan. 1, 2004, a day on which seven explosions
         were reported between Kirkuk in northern Iraq and Basra in the
         south, and end on Dec. 31, 2009, when three attacks were reported.
         With terms like "bomb explosion," "under enemy fire" and
         "discoveries of weapons," the Iraq logs try to make the war fit into
         the rough grid of military terminology. But there is one key
         difference between the Afghanistan war logs and these: The Iraq
         reports are all from a war that had already been officially declared
         as having been won. George W. Bush, the US president and commander
         in chief at the time, declared on May 1, 2003 on the aircraft
         carrier USS Abraham Lincoln that "major combat operations in Iraq
         have ended." The field reports show that his statement proved to be
         untrue for years to come.

         The soldiers' reports sometimes have a very reserved tone -- for
         example, when it comes to the deployments of their fellow soldiers
         who are hunting suspected insurgents, when patrols are ambushed or
         when weapons caches are discovered. They are everyday scenes from a
         war.

         And often the horrors that occurred are hidden in military
         abbreviations. The numbers and letters "13xAIF KIA," for example,
         stand for 13 enemies killed ("13 anti-Iraqi forces killed in
         action") -- as happened on July 12, 2007, when US attack helicopters
         became notorious around the world for the "Collateral Murder"
         operation in which they fired on innocent Iraqis. The fact that
         something must have gone awry in the mission is clear in the
         classified document because there were also "2xLN children WIA" --
         "3 local national children wounded in action."

         But other reports express the extent of the horror of the war more
         clearly. As tensions mount within the Iraqi population starting in
         2004, acts of the greatest cruelty take place. In June 2005, for
         example, the death of six members of a family near Baqouba are
         documented, a typical incident at that time. The killers tied the
         victims' hands behind their back and then cut off their heads,
         laying them next to their corpses on the ground. The nine-year-old
         grandson was forced to die the same way as his grandfather. At
         another point, US soldiers report that a commander with the Shiite
         Mahdi militia killed his wife. She evidently saw him commit an
         "extra-legal killing" -- a murder -- and she filmed him doing it on
         a mobile phone.

         The documents show hundreds of thousands of times what can happen to
         a society at war -- how it gradually slips to the point of
         self-destruction and the verge of breakdown. During those years, a
         full-blown civil war between ethnic groups in Iraq was only barely
         prevented.

         INTERACTIVE MAP: THE DEADLY EVENTS OF NOV. 23, 2006
         One Day in Iraq: SPIEGEL ONLINE documents the 70 deadly events of
         Nov. 23, 2006, as they are depicted in the WikiLeaks war logs.
         Murders, executions, attacks -- they show a picture of the brutal
         daily life in a country torn by civil war. Now you can read about a
         day that was just like many others in Iraq -- from the perspective
         of American soldiers. Visit the interactive map ...
         Recently, Bush's successor, Barack Obama, also officially declared
         the end of combat operations. On September 1, Operation Iraqi
         Freedom was replaced by Operation New Dawn. But aside from the
         excessively optimistic terminology, there were no signs of triumph
         to be seen. There were no flag-bedecked aircraft carriers or
         returning veterans being cheered as they marched up Broadway in New
         York.

         President Obama, long an opponent of what he once called a "dumb
         war," pointed out that the war had not only cost many lives, but had
         also come at a high financial cost. "We spent a trillion dollars at
         war, often financed by borrowing from overseas," he said. At the
         very same place where his predecessor had announced the start of the
         war, Obama declared its end in a tone suggesting that a completely
         different, considerably more humble nation had emerged from the
         conflict.

         Devastating Effects

         According to official figures, 3,884 US soldiers died between 2004
         and 2009, an additional 224 soldiers from allied nations, well over
         8,000 members of the Iraqi security forces (reasonably reliable
         figures are missing for 2004) and 92,003 Iraqi civilians whose
         deaths are documented by at least one source. Together, this makes
         more than 104,111 deaths, a figure that approximates the number of
         victims reported dead in these documents, namely 109,032. And
         although this war wasn't nearly as devastating in terms of the sheer
         number of casualties as the Vietnam War, with its 3 million deaths,
         its effects on the standing of the United States in the world have
         been no less devastating.

         One month before the beginning of the invasion, Bush had blustered
         that the overthrow of dictator Saddam Hussein and "a new regime in
         Iraq would serve as a dramatic and inspiring example of freedom for
         other nations in the region." But the military that withdrew after
         seven years of war was a demoralized force that had long since
         ceased to believe in the noble goals of the campaign.

         The documents faithfully reflect this change. In the roughly 400,000
         documents, the word "democracy" appears only eight times. The
         "improvised explosive devices" which instilled fear in the hearts of
         American soldiers, however, are mentioned 146,895 times.

         Editor's Note: The next issue of DER SPIEGEL is currently in
         production and the magazine's main feature article on the WikiLeaks
         Iraq war logs will be published on SPIEGEL ONLINE International in
         English on Monday.
         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-10-23 00:55:13</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/968422_re-der-spiegel-on-iraq-war-logs-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>970494</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - CHINA - RIO ESPIONAGE - CN65 [Analytical &amp; Intelligence
	Comments] RE: Australia,	China: Accusations of Espionage
</title>
    <description>   In this piece he mentions that the Chinese always target a Chinese foreign
   national.  That is what I got from my sources and from all the research we
   did on other cases seems to be exclusively the case.  I did not come
   across one westerner without Chinese decent that was ever implicated in
   such a case.   Chinese is Chinese no matter what your passport says. 

   Matthew Gertken wrote:

     Here's the Greg Sheridan article Jen's source mentions. It isn't
     brilliant or anything, but it pretty well captures the anger in
     Australia right now. And you have to admit, he's got a point. This was a
     really baldfaced move by China and this article is an example of the
     enormous domestic pressure that must be coming to bear on Rudd.

     Big risk in nasty business
     Greg Sheridan, Foreign editor | July 10, 2009
     http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25759154-5013460,00.html

     Article from:  The Australian

     THE arrest and detention in Shanghai of senior Australian Rio Tinto
     executive Stern Hu represents a grave crisis in Australia's relationship
     with China.

     It is a serious miscalculation by Beijing, and threatens to do lasting
     harm to China's interests, not only in Australia, but throughout the
     Western world.

     Rio Tinto is one of the biggest mining companies in the world. Recently
     it has earned the ire of official China (China Inc, as it's sometimes
     described) in two ways.

     It has pulled out of a huge deal in which the wholly Chinese government
     owned Chinalco was going to buy nearly $20 billion of Rio. And it is
     involved in tense negotiations over iron ore prices.

     And now Rio's number two man in China, a Chinese Australian, and three
     of his Chinese employees, are in custody, ludicrously on suspicion of
     espionage and stealing Chinese state secrets.

     Often when the Chinese state is under stress it reverts to Cold War
     rhetoric and indeed Cold War impulses.

     But really, to arrest a senior Rio executive for espionage? In 2009?

     This surely is 30 years out of date.

     These arrests always tend to be of ethnic Chinese, no matter what their
     citizenship, as though Beijing does not recognise the foreign
     nationality of anyone of Chinese blood.

     But if Australian executives cannot have difficult business dealings and
     negotiations in China without being arrested, this is a grievous
     development.

     The story has been reported widely internationally, on various forms of
     media including CNN and Bloomberg.

     Rio is a giant in the mining world. If Chinese authorities capriciously
     detain executives from companies such as Rio, what lessons will the
     international business community draw from this?

     Most of all, however, this is a crisis for the Rudd government. There is
     an air of contempt in the way the Chinese authorities have failed to
     respond to Australian government requests for information and for
     consular access to MrHu until today.

     What does the much touted Australia-China relationship add up to if
     Beijing treats Canberra with such conspicuous discourtesy and
     indifference? Or, more likely, are the Chinese deliberately sending a
     message? If so, it's a chilling message.

     If the Rudd government cannot secure Mr Hu's release within a few days,
     it will be seen as having zero influence with Beijing.

     Kevin Rudd's ambition to be a "zhengyou" to China, a good friend who can
     tell even unpleasant truths, will be torn to shreds.

     If the Rudd government cannot resolve this matter quickly, then every
     positive thing it ever says about its relations with Beijing will not be
     worth the hot air they take to say.

     The frequent talk of a special relationship between Australia and China
     will be seen as fatuous sentimentality.

     But the Chinese are risking serious interests as well.

     Their action against Mr Hu greatly strengthens those such as Nationals
     Senate leader Barnaby Joyce who argue against any strategic partnership
     between Australia and China, while China's many apologists in Australia
     will be deeply discredited.

     This nasty business needs to be resolved very quickly.

     Jennifer Richmond wrote:

       So my Aussie intelligence source that I was so worried about because
       he stayed in China incommunicado for over a week decides to get in
       touch with me via STRATFOR!  Ha.  Well anyways, I am resending this as
       insight in case not everyone picks this up.  This is very important
       and wish like hell we woulda got it this morning before I wrote up the
       CSM.  I guess we can always update next week or do a stand-alone piece
       - thoughts?

       SOURCE: CN65
       ATTRIBUTION: Former Australian State Senator
       SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Source is well-connected politically, militarily
       and economically.  He has become a
       private businessman helping foreign companies with M&amp;As
       PUBLICATION: Yes
       SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
       ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
       DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
       SPECIAL HANDLING: None

         Hey Jen,

         Just back in Australia, but still only in Perth.  Won't get back to
         Brisbane until 1000 GMT on 10th July.  Happy to take a call after
         that. You may have missed a related issue on this story.

         The day in arrived in China the media announced proposed changes to
         the
         laws on state secrets.  These include increasing the range of things
         which
         could constitute revealing or stealing "state secrets".  Of course
         stealing
         them, or deliberately revealing them, can attract a death sentence. 
         The
         exact details are contained in clippings, which are in my checked
         luggage. I will get them once I get home.

         In my talks, the Chinese officials were turning themselves inside
         out over
         Chinalco, and the line given in the official media curiously blamed
         the
         Opposition.  The reason for this is simply that the Government and
         Rio
         don't want to admit that they got it seriously wrong.  You recall my
         comment on the clipping you showed me?  The problem is that they
         tried to
         push their bargaining position too hard instead of revising the deal
         to
         make it more immediately palatable.

         Interestingly, the arrests come not just during the protracted iron
         ore
         negotiations, but on the very weekend that Rio successfully
         concluded its
         rights issue to replace most of the cash they were to get from
         Chinalco.  I
         think these guys were really pissed off by that, and wanted to do
         something
         to lash out at Rio.  Also, they may have figured that arresting
         these guys
         would lead to a capitulation by Rio at the negotiating table.

         Rudd is copping a flogging for failing to say anything at all on the
         matter, even though the Australian has been in the bag for four
         days.  You
         need to see Greg Sheridan's article in the Australian today.  Also,
         you
         have a fan at the Australian Fin Review, as Stratfor commentary made
         up
         half the back page in the Chanticleer column there.

         I got out of China a week late, and was very worried for myself for
         a
         week, but all turned out okay.

         Hope all is well at your end.

         Bill

         Source:
         http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090708_australia_china_accusations_espionage
</description>
    <date>2009-07-10 05:56:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/970494_re-insight-china-rio-espionage-cn65-analytical-and.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>970630</id>
    <title>Re: S-weekly for comments - Wikileaks, Lots of Fuss About Nothing
</title>
    <description>   very nice. Really glad we're saying this. Thoughts within.

     WikiLeaks, Lots of Fuss About Nothing

      

     On Friday Oct. 22, the organization known as WikiLeaks published a cache
     of 391,832 classified documents on their website. The documents are
     mostly field reports filed by U.S. forces in Iraq from January 2004 to
     December 2009 (the months of May 2004 and March 2009 are somehow missing
     from the cache.) The bulk of the documents (379,565) were classified at
     the secret level with a handful of them being might explain that this is
     lower confidential. The remainder of the documents are unclassified.
     This large batch of documents are believed to have been released by
     Private First Class Bradley Manning, who was arrested in May 2010 by the
     U.S. Army's Criminal Investigations Command and charged with
     transferring thousands of classified documents onto his personal
     computer and then transmitting them to an unauthorized person. Manning
     is also believed to have been the source of the classified material
     [link http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100726_wikileaks_and_afghan_war ]
     released by WikiLeaks pertaining to the war in Afghanistan in July
     2010. 

      

     Like the Afghan war documents, WikiLeaks released the Iraq documents to
     a number of news outlets for analysis several weeks in advance. These
     news organizations included the New York Times, Der Spiegel, The
     Guardian and al Jazeera, and they each released special reports and
     websites to coincide with the formal release of the documents to the
     public by WikiLeaks.   

      

     Due to its investigation of Manning, the U.S. government also had a
     pretty good idea of what the material was before it was released and had
     formed a special task force to review the material for sensitive and
     potentially damaging information prior to the release. The Pentagon has
     denounced the release of the information, which it views as a crime, has
     demanded the return of its stolen property might make it clear how
     absurd this is a.) because it is electronic data and b.) after it has
     been released in electronic form on the internet, and has warned that
     the documents place Iraqis at risk for retaliation and also place the
     lives of U.S. troops at risk from terrorist groups who are mining the
     documents for tidbits of operational information than can be exploited
     to conduct attacks.

      

     When one takes a careful look at the classified documents released by
     WikiLeaks, it becomes quickly apparent that they have revealed very few
     true secrets. Indeed the main points being emphasized by al Jazeera and
     the other media outlets after all the intense research they conducted
     before the public release of the documents seem to highlight a number of
     issues that were well-known and well-chronicled for years prior to the
     release:  The U.S. knew the Iraqi government was torturing its own
     people; many civilians were killed during the six years the documents
     covered; sectarian? death squads were operating inside Iraq; and, the
     Iranian government was funding  Shiite militias. None of this is news.
     But, when one takes a step back from the documents themselves and looks
     at the larger picture, there are some other very interesting issues that
     have been raised by the release of these documents, and the reaction to
     the release. 

      

     The Documents

      

     The documents released in this cache of classified documents were taken
     from the U.S. government's Secret Internet Protocol Router Network
     (SIPRNet) a network that is used to distribute classified but not
     particularly sensitive information.  SIPRNet is only authorized for the
     transmission of information up to the secret level. It cannot be used
     for top secret or more closely guarded intelligence that is classified
     at the Secret level. The regulations by which information is classified
     by the U.S. government are outlined in Executive Order 13526. Under that
     order, secret is the second-highest level of classification and applies
     to information that, if released, would be reasonable expected to cause
     serious damage to U.S. national security.

      

     Due to the nature of SIPRNet, most of the information that was
     downloaded from it and sent to WikiLeaks was raw field reports from the
     U.S. troops in Iraq. These reports discussed things the units
     encountered, such as IED attacks, ambushes, the bodies of murdered
     civilians, friendly fire incidents, traffic accidents, etc.  For the
     most part they were raw information reports and not vetted, processed
     intelligence. The documents also did not contain reports that were the
     result of intelligence collection operations, and therefore did not
     reveal sensitive intelligence sources and methods.

      

     To provide a sense of the material involved, we will choose two of the
     reports randomly. The first report we encounter is a report classified
     at the secret level from an Military Police company reporting that the
     Iraqi Police found a dead body that had been executed in a village with
     a redacted name on Oct. 28, 2006. In another secret-level report we see
     that on January 1, 2004, the Iraqi police called a military police unit
     in Baghdad to report that an improvised explosive device had detonated
     and that there was another suspicious object found at the scene. The
     military police unit responded, confirmed the presence of the suspicious
     object and then called an explosive ordnance disposal unit which
     responded to the site and destroyed the second IED.  Now, while it may
     have been justified to classify such reports at the secret level at the
     time they were written under provisions designed to protect information
     pertaining to military operations, clearly, the release of these two
     reports in Oct. 2010 has not caused any serious damage to U.S. national
     security.

      

     Another factor to consider when reading raw information reports from the
     field is that while they offer a degree of granular detail that cannot
     be found in higher level intelligence analysis, they can often be
     misleading or otherwise erroneous.  As anyone who has ever interviewed a
     witness can tell you, in a stressful situation people often miss or
     misinterpret important factual details. That's just how most people are
     wired.  This situation can be compounded when a witness is placed in a
     completely alien culture. This is not to say that all these reports are
     flawed, but just to note the fact that that raw information reports must
     often be double-checked and vetted before they can be used in creating a
     reliable estimate of the situation on the battlefield, and the readers
     of these documents obviously will not have the ability to conduct that
     type of follow-up.

      

     Few True Secrets

      

     In reality, there are very few true secrets in the cache of documents
     released by WikiLeaks, and by true secrets we mean things that would
     cause serious damage to national security. And no, we are not about to
     point out the things that we believe to be truly damaging. However, it
     is important to understand up front that something that causes
     embarrassment and discomfort to a specific administration or agency does
     not necessarily cause damage to national security. and can actually
     serve to expose flaws (sometimes things are classified within the system
     precisely because they are embarrasing)

      

     As to the charges that the documents are being mined by terrorist groups
     for information that can be used in attacks against U.S. troops deployed
     overseas, this is undoubtedly true. It would be foolish for the Taliban
     the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) and other militant groups not to read
     the documents and attempt to benefit from them. However, there are very
     few things noted in these reports pertaining to the tactics, techniques
     and procedures (TTP) used by U.S. forces that could not be learned by
     simply observing combat operations -and the Taliban and ISI have been
     carefully studying U.S. TTP every hour of every day for many years now.
     These documents are far less valuable than years of careful, direct
     observation and regular, first-hand interaction.

     This is a really valuable point you don't see being made elsewhere.
     Might be valuable to expand into another graph and really emphasize here
     -- particularly how absurd the idea is that combatants that have been
     intensely engaged with us for the better part of a decade are really
     going to learn anything operationally useful from after-action reports
     -- or perhaps even that some U.S. report about an informant at that low
     of a level would reveal something new to the Taliban, which has a far
     greater local situational awareness of who talks to the U.S. and what
     they said than anyone doing reporting at the secret level does.

      

     This is not to say that the alleged actions of Manning were somehow
     justified. From the statements released by the government in connection
     with the case, Manning knew the information was classified and needed to
     be protected. He also appeared to know that his actions were illegal and
     could land him in trouble. 

      

     This is also not a justification for the actions of Wikipedia and the
     media outlets who are exploiting and profiting from the release of this
     information. However, what we are saying is that the hype surrounding
     the release is just that. There were a lot of classified documents
     released, but very few of them contained information that would truly
     shed new light on the actions of U.S. troops in Iraq or their allies or
     cause damage to the national security of the United States. While the
     amount of information released in this case was huge, it was clearly far
     less damaging than the information released by convicted spies such as
     Robert Hanssen and Aldrich Ames - information that crippled intelligence
     operations and directly resulted in the murder of Americans and American
     sources?.

      

     Culture of Classification

      

     Perhaps one of the most interesting facets of the WikiLeaks case is that
     is serves to highlight the culture of classification
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/i_could_tell_you_id_have_kill_you_cult_classification_intelligence
     that is so pervasive inside the U.S. government.  Only 204 of the
     391,832 documents were classified at the confidential level, while
     379,565 of them were classified at the secret level. This highlights the
     propensity of the U.S. government culture to classify documents at the
     highest possible classification, rather than at the lowest level truly
     required to protect said information. More is better.  

      

     Furthermore, while much of this material may have been somewhat
     sensitive at the time it was reported, most of that sensitivity has been
     lost over time, and many of the documents, like the two reports
     referenced above,  certainly no longer need to be classified.  EO 13256
     provides the ability for classifying agencies to set dates for materials
     to be declassified, and  indeed, according to the EO a date for
     declassification is supposed to be set every time a document is
     classified. But in practice, such declassification provisions are rarely
     used and most people just expect the documents to remain classified for
     the entire authorized period, which is 10 years in most cases and 25
     years when dealing with sensitive topics such as intelligence sources
     and methods or nuclear weapons.

      

     This culture of classification tends to creates so much classified
     material that it then becomes very difficult for government employees
     and security managers to determine what is really sensitive and what
     truly needs to be protected.  It also tends to reinforce the belief
     among government employees that knowledge is power and that one can
     become powerful by having access to information and denying that access
     to others. This belief then can often contribute to the bureaucratic
     jealously that results in the failure to share intelligence - a practice
     that was criticized so heavily in the 9/11 Commission Report.

      

     One of the things that will be important to watch in the wake of the
     WikiLeaks cases is how those who are a part of the culture of
     classification react to these events. Some U.S. government agencies,
     such as the FBI have bridled under the post 9/11 era mandates to share
     their information more widely and have been trying to scale back their
     sharing. As anyone who has dealt with the FBI can attest, they tend to
     be a semi-permeable membrane when it comes to the flow of information.
     Intelligence only flows one way - in -- and does not flow back out. But
     the FBI is certainly not alone. There are many organizations which are
     very hesitant to share information with other government agencies, even
     when those agencies have a legitimate need-to-know. they also guard
     their information closely for precisely this reason -- they don't think
     others properly vet or have the proper procedures in place to safeguard
     their information. so the default is not to share.

      

     Although the WikiLeaks case did not result in the disclosure of FBI or
     CIA information, and did not even shed much light on the DOD's
     intelligence collection activities, there are certainly people and
     organizations in the U.S. government who will attempt to use the case as
     bureaucratic justification for continuing to classify information at the
     highest possible levels and for controlling the access to the
     intelligence they generate even more stringently i.e. sharing it with
     less people.
     would conclude along these lines: this wikileaks business is partially a
     symptom of the utter overloading of the classification system with every
     possible piece of information when it serves no value to classify it.
     That overloading and overclassification actually weakens the system (as
     we saw with manning) and thereby endangers (though not directly in this
     case) the stuff the system exists to protect.
     The problem is not wait and see. We know the answer. The
     bureaucracy(ies) will treat the symptom with further classification,
     further restrictions on information sharing and further curtailment of
     accessibility to the lowest levels of classification. These are all
     exactly the opposite things they should be doing. So the ultimate damage
     that manning did was to strengthen a system that was already broken.
     That's the real irony.

      

      

     Scott Stewart

     STRATFOR

     Office: 814 967 4046

     Cell: 814 573 8297

     scott.stewart@stratfor.com

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-10-27 00:07:52</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 03:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/970630_re-s-weekly-for-comments-wikileaks-lots-of-fuss-about.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>971109</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - BRAZIL - On military purchases
</title>
    <description>   there was a lengthy Economist article just recently about how a German
   industrial giant (maybe Siemens) had really turned around after years of
   corrupt practices. It is one thing to make it illegal, it is another to
   actually clean house and end the practices. So the French may be further
   behind the curve on the latter -- also, they're getting desperate on the
   Rafale, since they're going to have to start shutting down the line
   eventually...

   On 10/18/2010 11:08 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

     PUBLICATION: If needed
     SOURCE: US505
     ATTRIBUTION: U.S. officials in Brazil
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: FSO stationed in Rio, in charge of econ cooperation
     SOURCE  Reliability : A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY:
     DISTRIBUTION: Secure
     SPECIAL HANDLING: Marko

     Asked a good source of mine in Rio what he thought about our internal
     discussion on Brazil and its military purchases. This was a phone
     conversation from Sunday, so I am going from memory on a lot of this.
     This was his answer:

     You are correct to be asking yourself what in God's name Brasilia is
     doing. Look, Brazilian navy is shit. It is a joke, and I would know
     because I talk to our military personnel at the consulate all the time
     about this. That they went for nuclear subs makes no sense. In fact, the
     fact they want the Rafale's and Gripen's is a joke too. The F-18 is the
     best piece of hardware. We even gave them as much tech transfer as we
     give anyone, short of the Israelis. We literally gave them a package
     that said "you get everything, shade under the Israeli deal." It is a
     great deal and anyone would love to have it. Instead they're looking at
     the Rafale, which is overpriced even with price cuts, and the Gripen
     which is just shit. You purchase Gripen's if you're Slovakia.

     Our thinking, and we are pretty unified on this view, here at the
     Consulate and in the wider diplo community is that there are some
     serious kick backs going on. Brazil is an astonishingly corrupt country.
     However, our Treasury Department forbids us to pad their wallets the way
     the French can. That really is it. Remember that deal in Pakistan that
     led to the deaths of a bunch of French officials? Guess what that was
     about? Sale of three French submarines for $1 billion. The French
     supposedly had a kick back deal with Pakistan, which is why Pakistan
     bought the subs in the first place. [MP: later the French reneged on
     paying the kickback, which -- the theory goes -- resulted in the deaths
     of French engineers in 2002].

     I can't prove anything, and don't quote me on this, but the purchase of
     the submarines is so singularly stupid that it has to be part of some
     kickbacks. Lula is probably looking for retirement money. And look, the
     purchase came interestingly close to the end of his term. Same with the
     jets. Our Treasury Department is really vindictive on bribes. We can't
     do any real business because of it in a corrupt place like Brazil. The
     French have no such problems [MP: not saying I disagree, but I believe
     the French have also made bribing illegal].

     So I am sorry that I can't give you some grand explanation that talks of
     Brazil's grand strategy. It is our assessment that this is purely about
     bribes and the French using strategies they have applied in the past
     here in Brazil. The only difference is that Brazil now has money, lots
     of it, so it can do this stuff. I mean is it a coincidence that they are
     buying so much French stuff? The French know how to bribe.

     --

     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

     Marko Papic

     Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

     STRATFOR

     700 Lavaca Street - 900

     Austin, Texas

     78701 USA

     P: + 1-512-744-4094

     marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-10-18 17:14:03</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/971109_re-insight-brazil-on-military-purchases-.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>973511</id>
    <title>Re: Taksim attack
</title>
    <description>   How about JITM and other deep state forces?  Remember that Turkey tried to
   bomb a Kurdish cafe (if I remember correctly in 2007 in Shirnakh), but the
   guy was seized by the people sitting in the cafe before he gets away.  
   I must say that I have been calling PKK contacts since last night to get a
   statement about the bombing, but no answer.  Not just me, even other
   journalist friends have been calling, but no answer as well.  
   So I think they will say something shortly about the ceasefire and the
   Istanbul bombing.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Emre Dogru" &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, November 1, 2010 1:12:41 PM
   Subject: Re: Taksim attack

   There are many points that needs to be considered when talking about
   whether this was a PKK attack or not. Briefly, I think this attack was
   organized by a) either a extremist faction of PKK that wants to prevent
   the talks between the government and PKK (which are not going very well
   already b) PKK core, but blaming independent groups within itself to avoid
   criticism from Kurdish politicians.

   Given the reasons that we wrote in the piece, the first culprit appears to
   be PKK. But of course, we cannot be sure about it. Therefore, we can start
   looking at this why other groups may not be perpetrators.

   Why this is unlikely to be the work of AQ and leftist groups? For AQ,
   we've couple of reasons. First, AQ's main target is not the Turkish police
   even though they do not avoid killing police. AQ usually aims to kill
   Christians and Jews and the institutions that represent them. Remember
   HSBC, Consulate and Synagog bombings in Istanbul in 2003. Many civilians
   and police were killed at the time, but the main target was not the
   police. But in Taksim case, the attacker intentionally targeted the
   police. Second, we know from OS and insight that AQ activity in Turkey
   seems to be under control since 2003. It is also fair to assume that
   Turkish and foreign intel agencies are in cooperation to avoid further
   attacks. A quick look at OS shows that AQ members and even sympathizers
   are arrested almost on a weekly basis.

   A leftist organization, as we mentioned DHKP-C in the piece, seems a more
   plausible possibility. But there are two issues here. First, senior
   security analysts say that the MO and the bomb that the attacker used does
   not seem to be a leftist work. Second, Kurdish politicians immediately
   floated the idea that this could be a leftist attack since some of their
   militants were arrested few days ago, which means that they want to acquit
   PKK. An important detail is that a leftist organization would protest
   something in Taksim square on the same day. I don't believe that DHKP-C
   was unaware of this.

   Now, I need to list the points that why this is likely to be a PKK attack:

   First, there are two arguments that we mentioned in the piece: a) end of
   ceasefire b) a similar attack to the police in June. But there are further
   points that makes it understandable why PKK is the main culprit. As I
   wrote several times in Turkey updates, PKK - government talks are on the
   verge of breakdown. You have no idea how critical KCK trial (trail of
   Kurdish politicians) is for PKK. And what I read and hear, government does
   not intend to compromise with PKK over KCK trial. A prominent Kurdish
   political figure Aysel Tugluk, who talks with Ocalan twice a month, said
   few days ago that "very bad things could happen". Right after the attack,
   none of the Kurdish politicians immediately condemned the attack and they
   were being very cautious while talking about PKK. I'm sure they suspect
   this could be a PKK attack.

   Above is the political context. Now let's have a closer look how the
   attack was organized. It's true that PKK rarely uses suicide bombers, but
   it is not out of their MO. Many PKK suicide bombers (one of them targeted
   prime minister's building this past summer) were thwarted. This was also
   the case before 2009 local elections. Moreover, the guy was not merely a
   suicide bomber. He was shot down by a police right after he detonated the
   first bomb. Police chief said they found "button" of an IED next to his
   body. This means that there was another bomb that he could use if he had
   time. Talking about Taksim, it is true that it is a bold target for PKK.
   But PKK made attacks in many bold areas in the past. The fact that Taksim
   is an entertainment area does not make it special. PKK bombed downtown of
   Kurdish city Diyarbakir two years ago, which killed several Kurdish school
   children. This was a bolder attack by PKK.

   Lastly, we can say a guy who claims to be PKK spokesman said this was not
   a PKK attack makes everything clear. I would say not really. PKK does not
   usually claim attacks. It attacks and kills, and everybody knows it is
   PKK. It denies its responsibility when there is a controversial attack
   such as this one. But who cares? PKK killed seven soldiers in Resadiye in
   2007 when the peace talks were going on. They first denied but then
   accepted it. There is a huge case that dates back to 1993, when 33
   non-armed soldiers were killed. PKK still denies it but even senior
   members later confessed that it was PKK's attack. Therefore, I would say
   PKK is a pragmatic organization that it can deny attacks even if it knows
   that a faction of PKK did it.

   Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     There are two types of suicide bombers generally speaking. First is the
     obvious case of jihadists who are religiously motivated to engage in
     this m.o. Second, are non-religious groups such as the Tamil rebels in
     SL and others who don't have the same quantity of human bombers in their
     arsenal as do jihadists. So, when they use them these are for really
     important occasions in which the bomber understands that he/she is
     giving up his/her life in a mission that will greatly enhance the
     group's cause. I am not leaning towards the possibility of jihadist
     involvement, but the Taksim attack doesn't fit with the what a secular
     group would view as a critical task. So, we need to dig deeper.

     On 10/31/2010 12:30 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

       2 questions, then:
       When was the last time pkk did a suicide attack? I can't recall
       exactly but I don't think the attack on the military post around the
       time of the flotilla incident was suicide.
       How long does pkk usually take to claim attacks? What are their forums
       saying?
       We need a better sense of whether internally pkk is surprised by the
       attack and whether there is internal tension because of it. (Yerevan,
       that's all you)

       Sent from my iPhone
       On Oct 31, 2010, at 11:10 AM, Yerevan Saeed
       &lt;yerevan.saeed@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

         Called the PKK, but dont pick up the phone. Probably they know why I
         am calling and trying to prepare an answer.  will try again. 
         I agree with you about al Qaeda activities recently. I highly doubt
         PKK to resort to suicide bombing at the moment, if it was just a
         bomb, then I would says, yes, probably this is the act of the PKK. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
         To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
         Sent: Sunday, October 31, 2010 7:03:17 PM
         Subject: Taksim attack

         I'm not that convinced this is pkk, at least pkk core. When was the
          
         last time they did a suicide hit? Hitting taksim is also really  
         gutsy...that is the ideal target for any bomber. We've been seeing a
          
         lot more restraint from these guys in light of the akp's
         negotiations  
         with pkk, krg, etc. Doesn't mean that ceasefire couldn't have broken
          
         down, but this kind of attack gives the military an excuse to tell
         the  
         akp its approach toward pkk isn't working and use lublic support to
          
         reassert itself. Pkk is already under pressure from the krg side.
         The  
         one thing working for them is that with winter approaching it'll be
          
         that much harder for the military to pursue them.

         There has been some AQ activity in turkey, so I wouldn't rule that
         out  
         yet. There could also be a splinter pkk faction unhappy with the  
         negotiations. Yerevan, we need to see how pkk is reacting to this  
         attack. There hasn't been any claim or denial yet, right,

         Sent from my iPhone

         --
         Yerevan Saeed
         STRATFOR
         Phone: 009647701574587
         IRAQ

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

   --
   Yerevan Saeed
   STRATFOR
   Phone: 009647701574587
   IRAQ
</description>
    <date>2010-11-01 11:54:47</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2010-03-10 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/973511_re-taksim-attack-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>yerevan.saeed@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>973892</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - CN65 Re: [OS] CHINA/ENERGY - Coal-powered energy consumption
	to decrease in Q4: NEA
</title>
    <description>   In response to this article.

   SOURCE: CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator.  Source is 
   well-connected politically, militarily and economically.  He has become a
   private businessman helping foreign companies with M&amp;As
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2/3
   DISTRIBUTION: East Asia
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen
   I don't believe it at all.  They say this stuff all the time, just as they
   say that they are going to be self-sufficient in coal this year!
   But they are still building coal fired power plants fast than they are
   putting them out of commission.  Usually these comments are made with the
   intention to try to influence commodity prices.  Consider the statements
   they have made about iron ore consumption.

     -------- Original Message --------

      Subject: [OS] CHINA/ENERGY - Coal-powered energy consumption to         
               decrease in Q4: NEA                                            
         Date: Wed, 27 Oct 2010 12:47:44 -0500                                
         From: Clint Richards &lt;clint.richards@stratfor.com&gt;                   
     Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                  
           To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                  

     Coal-powered energy consumption to decrease in Q4: NEA

     http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/greenchina/2010-10/27/content_11465639.htm

     2010-10-27 14
       
     China's demand for coal-powered energy is expected to drop in the fourth
     quarter. But China's energy authorities say diesel and petrol
     consumption will remain high.

     The National Energy Administration, the energy sector's governing body,
     believes the government's efforts to cut emissions will bear fruit in
     the fourth quarter.

     Wang Siqiang, an official at National Energy Administration, says demand
     for coal will cool. That's due to the slower growth of the industry.

     Wang also says the annual net import of coal is expected to increase by
     16 percent from a year ago.

     "We predict that the demand and supply of coal will be largely balanced
     in the fourth quarter, and supply is relatively abundant," said Wang
     Siqiang

     Wang also says investment in power plants will remain relatively strong,
     with the whole year's newly built installed capacity expected to reach
     90 million kilowatts.

     He says some regions in the Southwest and Central China will experience
     a crunch in hydro-power supply, due to lower water volumes in some
     rivers during the winter season.

     According to Wang, the supply of processed oil will be sufficient in the
     last quarter of this year, with demand continuing its growth trend.

     Diesel fuel consumption is forecast to retain growth, as industrial
     manufacturing and construction engineering enter peak season.

     Petrol consumption is also expected to experience a boom, with
     burgeoning car sales.
</description>
    <date>2010-10-28 03:18:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/973892_insight-cn65-re-os-china-energy-coal-powered-energy.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.wilson@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>976931</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - CHINA/AUSTRALIA - General observations and Sino-Oz
	relations	- CN65
</title>
    <description>   probably two things

   1) capital flight - into things like bonds, real estate and such --
   non-FDI investments -- most of this is probably NOT from the major
   corps/state

   2) resource acquisition - one of the nice things about china's financial
   model is that there is little return for making a profit, so spending $4
   billion for a $2 billion asset is considered a-ok

   there can obviously be overlap as anything that is a 2) is certainly
   considered a reliable hard asset that is out of the country

   On 9/28/2010 9:02 AM, Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

     In response to some of Matt's queries.  We were talking the other day
     and he noted that the Chinese seemed to be investing in anything and
     everything.  We had a lively discussion on whether or not this was an
     indication of capital flight.  He thought it wasn't this as much as it
     was the attempt to put the money in a place far away from government
     control.  But he did concede that there could be some element of capital
     flight insofar as there was nothing with high ROI in China.  Although he
     argues that there are plenty of projects to invest in in China, but it
     isn't about opportunity as much as it is ROI.  To that though he pointed
     out that the Chinese really weren't all that interested in ROI in their
     overseas investments either, although it was a nice bene.  We have
     argued in the past that their primary concern is supply-line security,
     which I think is still correct, but they are investing in projects in
     Australia recently that the source argues does not do much to secure
     supply-lines.  At any rate, this is a bit of an extension of this
     conversation in relation to Matt's recent questions.  Sources responses
     are in red.

     SOURCE: CN65
     ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
     natural resources
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator.  Source is 
     well-connected politically, militarily and economically.  He has become
     a
     private businessman helping foreign companies with M&amp;As
     PUBLICATION: Yes but with no attribution
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3/4
     DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

       So there are a couple of things that we are watching.  China's foreign
       policy seems to have become considerably more feisty in the past year,
       and there are basically two theories for explaining this behavior: a
       centralized theory (in which more assertive foreign policy is being
       generated at the top central leadership) and a de-centralized theory
       (in which Hu Jintao and the central leaders are seen as weak, and
       powerful forces within China are each pushing their own interests
       internationally). In the latter theory we hypothesize that there are
       different elements within the Chinese system (such as different
       ministries, outward-looking SOEs, and the PLA) pushing their
       interests, leading to more assertive behavior on several fronts, but
       that these are relatively uncoordinated and not necessarily following
       orders from the central leadership.

       What are your thoughts?  This touches on our last convo of the varied
       companies that are combing Oz for investments.  Any more thoughts on
       this appreciated. 

     I'm noting an interesting trend in that there are fewer big investments,
     and more "non-traditional" investments, such as real estate.  I describe
     these as non-traditional, in that most investment has, hitherto, been
     aimed at achieving resource security or resource sovereignty (the
     Chinese have never been good at distinguishing the difference).  Now,
     the investments seem very different, and are aimed at things which are
     simply financial.  The question is why are they doing this?
     I think it is decentralised, and based on the objectives of the elite in
     control of state owned companies.  If this is so, it leaves serious
     doubts about the authority of the NDRC, which is supposed to vet
     outbound investment.  The alternative is that NDRC remains strong, but
     that this investment is made with hard currency that never came onshore.
      I specialised in washing this sort of money in Latin America 20 years
     ago, and there are lots of ways of doing it.

       On a similar note, what do you think about the progress and
       limitations of Sino-Australian defense ties, especially in regards to
       China's seemingly new assertiveness mentioned above?  Is there any
       coordination with the Americans when Australia holds talks with
       Chinese military and defense officials?  How do the Australians
       perceive and plan to respond to the increasingly active Chinese
       foreign policy in the Pacific islands? 

     Generally Australia takes a dim view of others messing around in our
     backyard, even the New Zealanders.  You can guess the attitude to China.
      I don't know about talking to the Americans.  The PLAN thing was noted
     last week, but there have been various exercises with them, and these
     make sense to an extent, since we have a shared interest in protecting
     seaborne trade between the two countries, especially ships passing
     through the Malacca Straits.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 richmond@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4300 X4105
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-09-28 16:43:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/976931_re-insight-china-australia-general-observations-and-sino-oz.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zeihan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>976964</id>
    <title>Re: S-weekly for comments - Wikileaks, Lots of Fuss About Nothing
</title>
    <description>   Good piece.  A few comments below.  Also, I think people are going to be
   wondering why a private first class who obviously wasn't trustworthy would
   be in the position to read these files.  You address it, essentially, by
   inferring that this information is not all that sensitive; however, it
   would be nice to see a sentence on the matter (that would presumably say
   that shit happens). 

   scott stewart wrote:

     WikiLeaks, Lots of Fuss About Nothing

      

     On Friday Oct. 22, the organization known as WikiLeaks published a cache
     of 391,832 classified documents on their website. The documents are
     mostly field reports filed by U.S. forces in Iraq from January 2004 to
     December 2009 (the months of May 2004 and March 2009 are somehow missing
     from the cache.) The bulk of the documents (379,565) were classified at
     the secret level with a handful of them being confidential. I don't
     think most ppl know the difference between secret and confidential.  The
     remainder of the documents are unclassified. This large batch of
     documents are believed to have been released by Private First Class
     Bradley Manning, who was arrested in May 2010 by the U.S. Army's
     Criminal Investigations Command and charged with transferring thousands
     of classified documents onto his personal computer and then transmitting
     them to an unauthorized person. Manning is also believed to have been
     the source of the classified material [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100726_wikileaks_and_afghan_war ]
     released by WikiLeaks pertaining to the war in Afghanistan in July
     2010. 

      

     Like the Afghan war documents, WikiLeaks released the Iraq documents to
     a number of news outlets for analysis several weeks in advance. These
     news organizations included the New York Times, Der Spiegel, The
     Guardian and al Jazeera, and they each released special reports and
     websites to coincide with the formal release of the documents to the
     public by WikiLeaks.   

      

     Due to its investigation of Manning, the U.S. government also had a
     pretty good idea of what the material was before it was released and had
     formed a special task force to review the material for sensitive and
     potentially damaging information prior to the release. The Pentagon has
     denounced the release of the information, which it views as a crime, has
     demanded the return of its stolen property, and has warned that the
     documents place Iraqis at risk for retaliation and also place the lives
     of U.S. troops at risk from terrorist groups who are mining the
     documents for tidbits of operational information than can be exploited
     to conduct attacks.

      

     When one takes a careful look at the classified documents released by
     WikiLeaks, it becomes quickly apparent that they have revealed very few
     true secrets. Indeed the main points being emphasized by al Jazeera and
     the other media outlets after all the intense research they conducted
     before the public release of the documents seem to highlight a number of
     issues that were well-known and well-chronicled for years prior to the
     release:  The U.S. knew the Iraqi government was torturing its own
     people; many civilians were killed during the six years the documents
     covered; death squads were operating inside Iraq; and, the Iranian
     government was funding  Shiite militias. None of this is news. But, when
     one takes a step back from the documents themselves and looks at the
     larger picture, there are some other very interesting issues that have
     been raised by the release of these documents, and the reaction to the
     release. 

      

     The Documents

      

     The documents released in this cache of classified documents were taken
     from the U.S. government's Secret Internet Protocol Router Network
     (SIPRNet) a network that is used to distribute classified but not
     particularly sensitive information.  SIPRNet is only authorized for the
     transmission of information up to the secret level. It cannot be used
     for top secret or more closely guarded intelligence that is classified
     at the Secret level. The regulations by which information is classified
     by the U.S. government are outlined in Executive Order 13526. Under that
     order, secret is the second-highest level of classification and applies
     to information that, if released, would be reasonable expected to cause
     serious damage to U.S. national security.

      

     Due to the nature of SIPRNet, most of the information that was
     downloaded from it and sent to WikiLeaks was raw field reports from the
     U.S. troops in Iraq. These reports discussed things the units
     encountered, such as IED attacks, ambushes, the bodies of murdered
     civilians, friendly fire incidents, traffic accidents, etc.  For the
     most part they were raw information reports and not vetted, processed
     intelligence. The documents also did not contain reports that were the
     result of intelligence collection operations, and therefore did not
     reveal sensitive intelligence sources and methods.

      

     To provide a sense of the material involved, we will choose two of the
     reports randomly. The first report we encounter is a report classified
     at the secret level from an Military Police company reporting that the
     Iraqi Police found a dead body that had been executed in a village with
     a redacted name on Oct. 28, 2006. In another secret-level report we see
     that on January 1, 2004, the Iraqi police called a US military police
     unit in Baghdad to report that an improvised explosive device had
     detonated and that there was another suspicious object found at the
     scene. The military police unit responded, confirmed the presence of the
     suspicious object and then called an explosive ordnance disposal unit
     which responded to the site and destroyed the second IED.  Now, while it
     may have been justified to classify such reports at the secret level at
     the time they were written under provisions designed to protect
     information pertaining to military operations, clearly, the release of
     these two reports in Oct. 2010 has not caused any serious damage to U.S.
     national security.

      

     Another factor to consider when reading raw information reports from the
     field is that while they offer a degree of granular detail that cannot
     be found in higher level intelligence analysis, they can often be
     misleading or otherwise erroneous.  As anyone who has ever interviewed a
     witness can tell you, in a stressful situation people often miss or
     misinterpret important factual details. That's just how most people are
     wired.  This situation can be compounded when a witness is placed in a
     completely alien culture. This is not to say that all these reports are
     flawed, but just to note the fact that that raw information reports must
     often be double-checked and vetted before they can be used in creating a
     reliable estimate of the situation on the battlefield, and the readers
     of these documents obviously will not have the ability to conduct that
     type of follow-up. There's also a selection bias.  It is not necessary
     to mention, but a view of the on-the-ground situation is going to be
     tainted by the fact that people don't report seeing butterflys and
     double rainbows.  If someone wants to know what life was/is like for
     soldiers in Iraq these are only part of the picture.

      

     Few True Secrets

      

     In reality, there are very few true secrets in the cache of documents
     released by WikiLeaks, and by true secrets we mean things that would
     cause serious damage to national security. And no, we are not about to
     point out the things that we believe to be truly damaging. However, it
     is important to understand up front that something that causes
     embarrassment and discomfort does not necessarily cause damage to
     national security.

      

     As to the charges that the documents are being mined by terrorist groups
     for information that can be used in attacks against U.S. troops deployed
     overseas, this is undoubtedly true. It would be foolish for the Taliban
     the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) and other militant groups not to read
     the documents and attempt to benefit from them. However, there are very
     few things noted in these reports pertaining to the tactics, techniques
     and procedures (TTP) used by U.S. forces that could not be learned by
     simply observing combat operations -and the Taliban and ISI have been
     carefully studying U.S. TTP every hour of every day for many years now.
     These documents are far less valuable than years of careful observation.

      

     This is not to say that the alleged actions of Manning were somehow
     justified. From the statements released by the government in connection
     with the case, Manning knew the information was classified and needed to
     be protected. He also appeared to know that his actions were illegal and
     could land him in trouble. 

      

     This is also not a justification for the actions of Wikipedia Wikileaks.
     Certain they aren't connected to Wikipedia. and the media outlets who
     are exploiting and profiting from the release of this information.
     However, what we are saying is that the hype surrounding the release is
     just that. There were a lot of classified documents released, but very
     few of them contained information that would truly shed new light on the
     actions of U.S. troops in Iraq or their allies or cause damage to the
     national security of the United States. While the amount of information
     released in this case was huge, it was clearly far less damaging than
     the information released by convicted spies such as Robert Hanssen and
     Aldrich Ames - information that crippled intelligence operations and
     killed people.

      

     Culture of Classification

      

     Perhaps one of the most interesting facets of the WikiLeaks case is that
     is serves to highlight the culture of classification that is so
     pervasive inside the U.S. government.  Only 204 of the 391,832 documents
     were classified at the confidential level, while 379,565 of them were
     classified at the secret level. This highlights the propensity of the
     U.S. government culture to classify documents at the highest possible
     classification, rather than at the lowest level truly required to
     protect said information. More is better.   Unclear if you are stating
     this as the writer or if you are stating the US perspective.  You
     address it below, but suggest making it clear here.

      

     Furthermore, while much of this material may have been somewhat
     sensitive at the time it was reported, most of that sensitivity has been
     lost over time, and many of the documents, like the two reports
     referenced above,  certainly no longer need to be classified.  EO 13256
     provides the ability for classifying agencies to set dates for materials
     to be declassified, and  indeed, according to the EO a date for
     declassification is supposed to be set every time a document is
     classified. But in practice, such declassification provisions are rarely
     used and most people just expect the documents to remain classified for
     the entire authorized period, which is 10 years in most cases and 25
     years when dealing with sensitive topics such as intelligence sources
     and methods or nuclear weapons.  Is it not used because its just another
     beauracratic thing to do or because people are covering their asses?

      

     This culture of classification tends to creates so much classified
     material that it then becomes very difficult for government employees
     and security managers to determine what is really sensitive and what
     truly needs to be protected.  It also tends to reinforce the belief
     among government employees that knowledge is power and that one can
     become powerful by having access to information and denying that access
     to others. This belief then can often contribute to the bureaucratic
     jealously that results in the failure to share intelligence - a practice
     that was criticized so heavily in the 9/11 Commission Report.  

      

     One of the things that will be important to watch in the wake of the
     WikiLeaks cases is how those who are a part of the culture of
     classification react to these events. Some U.S. government agencies,
     such as the FBI have bridled under the post 9/11 era mandates to share
     their information more widely and have been trying to scale back their
     sharing. As anyone who has dealt with the FBI can attest, they tend to
     be a semi-permeable membrane when it comes to the flow of information.
     Intelligence only flows one way - in -- and does not flow back out. But
     the FBI is certainly not alone. There are many organizations which are
     very hesitant to share information with other government agencies, even
     when those agencies have a legitimate need-to-know.

      

     Although the WikiLeaks case did not result in the disclosure of FBI or
     CIA information, and did not even shed much light on the DOD's
     intelligence collection activities, there are certainly people and
     organizations in the U.S. government who will attempt to use the case as
     bureaucratic justification for continuing to classify information at the
     highest possible levels and for controlling the access to the
     intelligence they generate even more stringently i.e. sharing it with
     less people. It will be interesting to watch and see if they are
     successful in their efforts to roll back some of the post 9/11
     information sharing mandates based on the large amount of media
     attention the WikiLeaks case has generated.

      

      

     Scott Stewart

     STRATFOR

     Office: 814 967 4046

     Cell: 814 573 8297

     scott.stewart@stratfor.com

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-10-26 21:44:29</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 23:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/976964_re-s-weekly-for-comments-wikileaks-lots-of-fuss-about.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>977100</id>
    <title>Re: FOR COMMENT: Likely ETA attacks in Mallorca
</title>
    <description>   In response, the Spanish government temporarily suspended travel at the
   island's ports and airport in an alleged alleged? effort to capture those
   responsible for the attacks.

   -Yeah, that's the reason that the police gave, although my first thought
   was that maybe there was a threat to transportation and so they wanted to
   close it down. 

   Karen Hooper wrote:

     Ben West wrote:

     Two police officers died when a small improvised explosive device (IED)
     detonated July 30 outside a police barracks in Palmanova, Spain, a small
     coastal town on the Mediterranean Spanish island of Mallorca, a
     destination popular with European tourists. The relatively limited
     damage from the blast is consistent with a device -- containing probably
     no more than 10 pounds of explosive -- being attached to a parked car,
     most likely near the vehicle's gas tank.  A second device was later
     found and defused in the same area, with unconfirmed reports saying that
     it, too, was placed under a police vehicle. In response, the Spanish
     government temporarily suspended travel at the island's ports and
     airport in an alleged alleged? effort to capture those responsible for
     the attacks.
      
     No one has claimed responsibility for the bombing, though authorities
     suspect that it was carried out by the Basque separatist militant group
     Euskadi ta Askatasuna (ETA). Indeed, the targeting of police officers
     and the use of an IED concealed in a car matches previous ETA attacks.
     Mallorca does not have a significant history of ETA activity, with the
     noteworthy exception of the group's 2005 plan to assassinate Spanish
     King Juan Carlos I there which was disrupted by police.  ETA is known to
     conduct attacks in tourist areas such as Malaga in 2002, and the popular
     tourist area in Madrid, Callao Square in 2000 and while today's attack
     certainly took place in an area with lots of tourists, it was not
     specifically against a tourist target.  Certainly the island's tourist
     industry will suffer as a side-affect though, as the ports and airports
     on the island were temporarily shut down to search for culprits.  (Palma
     de Mallorca airport is the second busiest in Spain, with upwards of
     90,000 passengers traveling through there per day during the tourist
     season.)   

     Today's attack is the second in as many days, the third time in the past
     year that suspected ETA militants clustered their attacks within a two
     day period, as seen in the timeline below. This is a tactic likely put
     in place with a design to maximize public exposure in the press, as
     consecutive attack generally garner more attention than single, isolated
     attacks.

     ETA attacks in the past year:

     July 30: An explosive device placed under a police patrol vehicle
     detonated, killing two officers

     July 29: An explosive laden van detonated outside Civil Guard barracks
     in Burgos

     July 10: An explosive device was detonated outside a Basque socialist
     party office in XXX

     June 19: An explosive device killed a Spanish policeman as he was
     leaving for work in Arrigorriaga [LINK]

     March 26: An explosive device detonated outside the home of a
     businessman in Basque country.

     February 9: An explosive device detonated in Madrid, causing physical
     damage but harming no one.

     January 16: Police defused two explosive devices near a television
     tower.

     December 31: An explosive device fitted to a car detonated at the
     regional broadcasting network headquarters in Bilbao.

     December 3: Gunmen shot and killed a man in Azpetia, Basque country

     December 2: A car bomb exploded at the University of Navarra in
     Pampalona, injuring 17.

     September 22: A car bomb exploded outside a military school in Catabria
     region, killing a soldier and wounding another.

     September 21: Suspected ETA militants threw Molotov Cocktails at a
     police station in Ondarroa, injuring 10 people

     September 21: A car bomb exploded in Vitoria after an anonymous phone
     call warned of an attack.

     With a changing demographic and political climate in the Basque
     autonomous region, STRATFOR has noted that ETA, with less support in its
     Basque autonomous region, is likely to become more violent as it becomes
     more desperate. As Basque country overall grows more moderate, ETA will
     be left with only the most extreme members who could very well deviate
     from the common ETA practices of avoiding civilians, calling attacks in
     ahead of time and conducting attacks in the middle of the night when
     casualties are less likely.  

 --
 Ben West
 Terrorism and Security Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin,TX
 Cell: 512-750-9890

     --
     Karen Hooper
     Latin America Analyst
     STRATFOR
     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Ben West
 Terrorism and Security Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin,TX
 Cell: 512-750-9890
</description>
    <date>2009-07-30 21:36:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-06 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/977100_re-for-comment-likely-eta-attacks-in-mallorca-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ben.west@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>982788</id>
    <title>Re: Discussion - Turkey/MIL - The Turkish Navy
</title>
    <description>   Overview on proficiencies/repuations:
   Details and sources attached
     * Turkish Naval Training parallels US training with prep schools,
       academies, specialized centers
     * Turkish Navy lacks training, but has other modern training facilities
     * Submarine Training Center is professional and has several specialized
       courses, trains foreign navies, but no mention of hands-on training
     * Turkish Navy gains experience from exercises with NATO, US, Israel,
       and Russia (some are annual and have continued for up to 8 years)
     * The U.S. Navy transferred command of the Combined Maritime Forces'
       (CMF) counterpiracy task force to the Turkish Navy May 3, suggesting
       the Turkish Navy has some training and experience necessary to lead.
     * Both Russian and US Navy representatives have made positive comments
       about Turkish Navy after exercises:
          * A United States naval officer experienced in joint operations
            with the Turkish navy wrote that all crews were "trained to a
            level far exceeding the capabilities of their platforms." 
          * "The Turkish navy is very strong and has deep traditions. We've
            sharpened our inter-operational ability with them." said ship
            commander Sergey Okhrenchuk.

   Peter Zeihan wrote:

     black see has a lot of $$$ on it -- remember that it is the terminus for
     the Danube, so it is a major trade hub for Europe from Bavaria on down
     through the balkans

     which isn't to say that the greeks play there much

     what i'm saying is that greece's competes in the north central med and
     that's it, and its range of competition is roughly matched by the
     resources they have available

     turkey is in three seas -- black, agean and eastern med -- but its got a
     relatively small land area to draw strength from AND it faces different
     competitors in each realm....its a resources to needs mismatch and
     explains why the ottomans were never known as particularly competent
     sailors

     cyprus is a mess -- it'll never have a big navy, but its a helluva
     aircraft carrier

     Nate Hughes wrote:

       well, they're also the only country with concerns in both bodies of
       water. I mean, so long as it doesn't become home to a major Russian
       fleet, what does Greece care about the Black Sea? Do they trade there
       a lot? Seems like the Black Sea has a ways to go before it really
       becomes a commercial hot spot like the Baltic has the potential to
       be...

       Agree, since Turkey also has significant requirements for a ground
       combat capability and air force that the navy requirement may be
       onorous. Can try to pull numbers on that as well.

       How strategic vs. petty is Cyprus?

       Peter Zeihan wrote:

         seems to me that the ratio of coastline and competitors to the
         resources that they have to throw at their navy is absolutely
         horrible

         the only reason they can hope to compete navally is because the
         straits allow them to shuffle fleets back and forth while denying
         that benefit to competitors

         Nate Hughes wrote:

           First way I want to look at this piece is geographic. Turkey is a
           peninsula with a limited river system and a mountainous interior.
           Communication and commerce by sea is not as natural as it is for
           the Greeks, but certainly an important part of a modern economy.

           It is literally at the crossroads of two continents and two bodies
           of water. The Bosporus and Dardanelles can be controlled fairly
           well from land so long as Turkey has firm control of both banks.

           Nevertheless, there are Greek islands up and down the Turkish west
           coast that are essentially in artillery range of Turkish
           population centers. And if Turkey wants to not only control the
           Bosporus and Dardanelles but actually control access for Istanbul
           to the Mediterranean and beyond, it has to be able to tango with
           the Greeks in the Aegean.

           There's also the Cyprus issue.

           In addition, it has to ensure that it is the dominant power in the
           Black Sea. So you've got a navy that has to be spread pretty
           broadly, but can be massed pretty quickly too as long as Turkish
           control of the critical sealanes and straits remains strong.

           &gt;From the late '90s up until this latest deal with Germany for six
           new subs (not unexpected or surprising in and of itself), Turkey
           has been broadly expanding its fleet -- from submarines to
           frigates to patrol boats. In terms of raw equipment, it is well
           ahead of Russia or anybody else on the Black Sea and Greece, too
           -- though Greece is much closer matched than even the Russians.

           Kendra is looking more into their proficiencies and reputation as
           sailors. Will also be pulling together some insight questions.

           But initial thoughts?
           --
           Nathan Hughes
           Military Analyst
           STRATFOR
           512.744.4300 ext. 4102
           nathan.hughes@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-07-02 20:01:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-09 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/982788_re-discussion-turkey-mil-the-turkish-navy-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kendra.vessels@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/97/97137_Turkish_Navy_Rep.doc</path><size>49152</size><md5></md5><sha1>5d2261ed38336bf55fc16737f134e61312fa602e</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>983788</id>
    <title>RE: DISCUSSION - Obama policy for mideast
</title>
    <description>   BB, being the man of honor that he is, intends to let Obama know (I've
   been told man to man) that he is the vanguard of the State of Israel, with
   the hell bent intentions (Bush like I may add) of neutralizing the Iranian
   nuclear menace, because he trusts this Presidency about as much as I
   do.   For that, he gets my man of the year award. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Reva Bhalla
   Sent: Tuesday, May 12, 2009 3:41 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: DISCUSSION - Obama policy for mideast
   Bibi is coming to town soon. The rumor is that in a few weeks Obama will
   be unveiling a new road map, calling for a two-state solution, yadda
   yadda.
   Now everyone knows that the Israeli-Palestinian issue is going nowhere.
   It's the geopolitical quicksand for any president trying to build a
   legacy. And especially now since the Israelis can hang Iran over the US's
   head, dont have to concede on anything and Bibi is going to be a hard ass
   on this for sure.
   So, Obama, why take this on so early in your presidency? it's not going to
   score you points, and you've gotta ton of other shit on your plate to
   worry about. is this more about PR stunts to win friends in the Islamic
   world?  a distraction from af/pak?
</description>
    <date>2009-05-12 22:54:48</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-27 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/983788_re-discussion-obama-policy-for-mideast-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>991928</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - US/Pakistan - Government and Military Relations - PK700
</title>
    <description>   Source Code: PK700
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Former Pakistani intelligence officer
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: C (personal opinion/analysis and speculation)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   Source sent these comments with the article "Thinking the Unthinkable" by
   Abdus Salam Akhtar:

   A sample of the reaction to Mullens statement in Pakistan. I think the
   trust and the partnership has been very very badly damaged. People think
   this as the third betrayal of Pakistan by USA and the worst outcome has
   been the opportunity to those opposing Pakistan,s help/participation  to
   gloat and have something to say. The more US media or the officials blame
   The ISI the more they make it impossible for any one to even utter a word
   of support for US. 
   I am surprised that the US authorities have not yet learnt that in
   Pakistan there is very high value placed on respect. You can achieve a lot
   by talking nicely and secretly but insulting a nation and behaving like
   the proverbial ugly American will only earn you hostility. The national
   make up of Afghans and Pakistanis is not very different and both have
   fairly pronounced suicidal tendencies. I pray better sense prevails and
   damage repair exercise is undertaken. The entire political leadership
   across the board met yesterday and agreed to stand with the Army and The
   ISI.
</description>
    <date>2011-09-30 18:43:15</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/991928_insight-us-pakistan-government-and-military-relations-pk700-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>fred.burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>watchofficer@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>994037</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - ECON/IRELAND - Moody's LATEST Analyses on Ireland
</title>
    <description>   Not yet published, DO NOT FORWARD TO ANYONE.

   --

   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

   Marko Papic

   Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

   STRATFOR

   700 Lavaca Street - 900

   Austin, Texas

   78701 USA

   P: + 1-512-744-4094

   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-10 20:40:32</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/994037_insight-econ-ireland-moody-s-latest-analyses-on-ireland-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>econ@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:econ@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/97/97446_sovereign risk report 11 8_Final dg.pdf</path><size>382331</size><md5></md5><sha1>947d000326598f912d867e14397495103c0103b8</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/97/97447_ireland againV2.docx</path><size>610541</size><md5></md5><sha1>e1219141da5c270d4397caa0ae6af02a33f47223</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>994928</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [OS] CHINA/CT/MIL - Chinese army develops drug to
 keep soldiers awake for up to 72 hours - paper
</title>
    <description>   scifi comingn true

   On 10/17/11 8:15 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

    Chinese army develops drug to keep soldiers awake for up to 72 hours -   
    paper                                                                    
                                                                             
    Text of report headlined "PLA eyes 'night eagle' to make army of night   
    owls" published by Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post website  
    on 16 October                                                            
                                                                             
    The People's Liberation Army (PLA) [Chinese army] has opened up a new    
    front in the war against sleep.                                          
                                                                             
    It has developed a drug that can keep its soldiers awake and active for  
    as long as 72 hours, state television reported yesterday. But its        
    scientists didn't disclose its ingredients.                              
                                                                             
    The anti-sleep drug - called Night Eagle - was unveiled as one of 600    
    scientific achievements in an exhibition marking the 60th anniversary of 
    the Academy of Military Medical Sciences. The China Central Television   
    report did not give further details about the new drug, such as any hint 
    of its composition, how it works or its possible side effects.           
                                                                             
    Instead, quoting academy researcher Wang Lin, it said the drug was       
    developed specifically for the military to help soldiers cope with sleep 
    deprivation during missions.                                             
                                                                             
    "Our troops will have to stay awake for a long time while being able to  
    maintain cognitive abilities when they are deployed in search and rescue 
    operations after earthquakes, floods and other disasters and some        
    special military missions," Wang said.                                   
                                                                             
    Analysts said the Night Eagle drug appeared similar to                   
    sleep-suppressants widely used by armed forces of other countries.       
                                                                             
    "Although I have no information about the newly invented drug, it is not 
    at all surprising to see efforts to control sleep and develop anti-sleep 
    technology because of their apparent practical uses in combat            
    situations," said Professor Ni Lexiong, a Shanghai-based military        
    expert.                                                                  
                                                                             
    "Whether our troops can deprive themselves of sleep hours or even days   
    longer than their opponents could make a major difference in combat," Ni 
    said.                                                                    
                                                                             
    Ni believed the PLA would not reveal the drug's composition or           
    associated experimental data, but said it probably worked the same way   
    as other stimulants developed in the West. Any possible side effects of  
    the drug were also unknown.                                              
                                                                             
    One popular military stimulant in the West is modafinil, which was       
    originally developed to treat narcolepsy but is now used by US, French,  
    British and Indian armed forces as an alternative to amphetamines, as    
    well as by students to fight fatigue.                                    
                                                                             
    Modafinil has been a popular lifestyle drug for people who want to       
    chemically turn off sleep with fewer side effects.                       
                                                                             
    Experts also said anti-sleep drugs were becoming more important hi-tech  
    aids and the US military reportedly developed a formulation that kept    
    soldiers awake for seven straight days and nights in the early 2000s.    
                                                                             
    Source: South China Morning Post website, Hong Kong, in English 16 Oct   
    11                                                                       
                                                                             
    BBC Mon AS1 ASDel ma                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4300 ex 4112

 --
 Anthony Sung
 ADP STRATFOR
</description>
    <date>2011-10-17 15:24:19</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/994928_re-eastasia-os-china-ct-mil-chinese-army-develops-drug-to.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anthony.sung@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>999236</id>
    <title>Re: anybody have questions for former Spanish PM Aznar
</title>
    <description>   he is impeccably dressed. the most beautiful hair... so silky and shiny! i
   might ask him what shampoo he uses
   On Nov 16, 2010, at 3:41 PM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     Como se dice "Movember" en espanol?

     &lt;moz-screenshot-68.png&gt;

     On 11/16/10 3:33 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       Uh, how about a party for stratfor in his (or one of his friends')
       mediterranean villa?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Michael Wilson &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
       Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
       Date: Tue, 16 Nov 2010 15:32:32 -0600
       To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
       ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
       Subject: Re: anybody have questions for former Spanish PM Aznar
       can i crash on his couch?

       On 11/16/10 3:26 PM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

         can you just tell him "good call on blaming ETA" for me?

         On 11/16/10 3:18 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

           he's teaching our class today

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-16 22:44:36</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/999236_re-anybody-have-questions-for-former-spanish-pm-aznar-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>999307</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [OS] CHINA/CT/MIL - Chinese army develops drug to
 keep soldiers awake for up to 72 hours - paper
</title>
    <description>   thats how why the cartels are so hardcore

   On 10/17/11 8:24 AM, Jose Mora wrote:

     Last time I checked this was called "crack"

     On 10/17/11 8:15 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

    Chinese army develops drug to keep soldiers awake for up to 72 hours -   
    paper                                                                    
                                                                             
    Text of report headlined "PLA eyes 'night eagle' to make army of night   
    owls" published by Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post website  
    on 16 October                                                            
                                                                             
    The People's Liberation Army (PLA) [Chinese army] has opened up a new    
    front in the war against sleep.                                          
                                                                             
    It has developed a drug that can keep its soldiers awake and active for  
    as long as 72 hours, state television reported yesterday. But its        
    scientists didn't disclose its ingredients.                              
                                                                             
    The anti-sleep drug - called Night Eagle - was unveiled as one of 600    
    scientific achievements in an exhibition marking the 60th anniversary of 
    the Academy of Military Medical Sciences. The China Central Television   
    report did not give further details about the new drug, such as any hint 
    of its composition, how it works or its possible side effects.           
                                                                             
    Instead, quoting academy researcher Wang Lin, it said the drug was       
    developed specifically for the military to help soldiers cope with sleep 
    deprivation during missions.                                             
                                                                             
    "Our troops will have to stay awake for a long time while being able to  
    maintain cognitive abilities when they are deployed in search and rescue 
    operations after earthquakes, floods and other disasters and some        
    special military missions," Wang said.                                   
                                                                             
    Analysts said the Night Eagle drug appeared similar to                   
    sleep-suppressants widely used by armed forces of other countries.       
                                                                             
    "Although I have no information about the newly invented drug, it is not 
    at all surprising to see efforts to control sleep and develop anti-sleep 
    technology because of their apparent practical uses in combat            
    situations," said Professor Ni Lexiong, a Shanghai-based military        
    expert.                                                                  
                                                                             
    "Whether our troops can deprive themselves of sleep hours or even days   
    longer than their opponents could make a major difference in combat," Ni 
    said.                                                                    
                                                                             
    Ni believed the PLA would not reveal the drug's composition or           
    associated experimental data, but said it probably worked the same way   
    as other stimulants developed in the West. Any possible side effects of  
    the drug were also unknown.                                              
                                                                             
    One popular military stimulant in the West is modafinil, which was       
    originally developed to treat narcolepsy but is now used by US, French,  
    British and Indian armed forces as an alternative to amphetamines, as    
    well as by students to fight fatigue.                                    
                                                                             
    Modafinil has been a popular lifestyle drug for people who want to       
    chemically turn off sleep with fewer side effects.                       
                                                                             
    Experts also said anti-sleep drugs were becoming more important hi-tech  
    aids and the US military reportedly developed a formulation that kept    
    soldiers awake for seven straight days and nights in the early 2000s.    
                                                                             
    Source: South China Morning Post website, Hong Kong, in English 16 Oct   
    11                                                                       
                                                                             
    BBC Mon AS1 ASDel ma                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4300 ex 4112

 --
 JOSE MORA
 ADP
 STRATFOR

 --
 Anthony Sung
 ADP STRATFOR
</description>
    <date>2011-10-17 15:25:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/999307_re-eastasia-os-china-ct-mil-chinese-army-develops-drug-to.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anthony.sung@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1001359</id>
    <title>Re: Former Spanish PM Azner
</title>
    <description>   Haha, I'm glad you noticed those gorgeous locks as well
   Aznar could have been exaggerating the ETA in VZ stuff, but who knows

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Nov 16, 2010, at 6:35 PM, Reginald Thompson
   &lt;reginald.thompson@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

     At least 20 camps? Pretty impressive. That's more than I've seen in OS,
     where so far all they've been focusing on is the Guasdalito camp where
     Cubillas was allegedly at, but it's quite possible all those former
     etarras are spread out all over the place. I would he's a lot more open
     about heaping criticisms on Chavez since I heard him speak at Trinity
     back in 2004, where he referred to him as "an interesting man." My
     brother has a picture of himself with Aznar at that event. Every time I
     look at it I really do think, it's always his hair that I notice.....

     -----------------
     Reginald Thompson

     Cell: (011) 504 8990-7741

     OSINT
     Stratfor

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Tuesday, November 16, 2010 5:26:21 PM
     Subject: Former Spanish PM Azner

     Wow, SeA+-or presidente is hardcore.. Way more extreme than even the  
     Israeli officials I've heard speak. He honestly believes that all  
     terrorists are the same and that nothing short of total war can defeat  
     them. He is adamantly against any kind of negotiation with terrorists  
     and criticizes France, Germany and others heavily in this regard. He  
     attributes French and German "weakness" on counterterrorism to their  
     larger Muslim populations. He said OBL's statement on retaking Andaluz  
     is all he heard and the Germans and French just didn't get it. He says  
     poverty has zero connection to terrorism and that developmental aid  
     policies are useless. On ETA, he said the ceasefires are just time  
     buying measures, nothing more. In Catalonia he says the regional govt  
     encourages Muslim immigration from Pakistan, Algeria, etc because they  
     can more easily linguistically integrate them as opposed to Spanish-
     speaking immigrants. This is also where the most radical imams are in  
     the country. He also said ETA has at least 20 camps in Venezuela and  
     ggat farc and eta work with each other in training l, weapons, etc.

     Overall, he's very ideological and hardline. Good reminder of the  
     personal role in poltics (though he also paid for that and is  
     embarassed by his loss)

     Also, great hair.

     Sent from my iPhone
</description>
    <date>2010-11-17 00:44:52</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1001359_re-former-spanish-pm-azner-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1002984</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   Brown

   On 10/24/11 11:50 AM, Morgan Kauffman wrote:

     If you're going to cover the vigilante/robin-hood aspect, I found this
     in today's sweeps: 
     http://arstechnica.com/business/news/2011/10/anonymous-takes-down-darknet-child-porn-site-on-tor-network.ars?utm_source=rss&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=rss
     and 
     http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2395175,00.asp#fbid=KvMufY_Mq3a

     They've got a sub-group that tries to hunt down child-abuse sites and
     users - last week they published a list of 1500 names of visitors to one
     site, in addition to performing a couple of DDoS attacks to the server.

     On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

       Link: themeData

       I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to have a
       broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no nothing, or
       almost nothing about what this group is and the threat it poses.
       Reviewing their list of attacks
       (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most of the
       cases, they are the "good" guys, sort of a Robin Hood of the internet
       . The interesting thing when it comes to their interactions with the
       cartels is the dubious role they play: at the same time they can be
       fighting crime by revealing cartel members/supporters, but they can
       also put lives in risk.

       However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by Anonymous.
       The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can conduct a cyber
       attack under "Anonymous" is worrisome.
       (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

       If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government websites,
       or if I am just a internet user, I would like to know more about these
       guys. Who they are? What are they interested in? How they operate? Who
       they have targeted so far? How can I defend myself from them? In what
       countries are they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use
       them to achieve any particular goal?

       On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

         nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else can
         build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they pose to
         innocent people caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing
         on journalists or taxi drivers they show little understanding of the
         situation.  This has long term implications in not just Mexico. 
         They don't consider the consequences of their actions and they act
         without understanding the environment.  It was the same when they
         released information on the Sony Playstation network to protest
         Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

         On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

           Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
           possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
           Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by Anonymous,
           threatens revealing personal information on cartels as well as
           states a member had been kidnapped. I could not find any sources
           outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being kidnapped.
           According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous
           Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting flyers in
           Veracruz as part of the Operation Paperstorm protest, although
           that is speculation.

           Link: themeData
           Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
           denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed
           out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
           Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked
           individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the
           most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
           the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing
           identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists
           who collude with criminal cartels. No mention of banks that accept
           their laundered money? That is when they would be a threat to
           their bottom line. They can always buy cabbies, cops, politicos
           and journos but tracing banks.  The hacker group demanded Los
           Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
           consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
           was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
           their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
           potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and
           hackers, presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels
           lashing out at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting
           on cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

           What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
           threat to Mexican cartels.
                o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
           media
                o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash
           out at cartels

           While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
           threat
                o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
           identifiable information on cartel members
                o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire
           on cartels
                o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
           communications, identifiable information on cartels members have
           to be considered in the realm of possibilities for
                       Anonymous
                       o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
           illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

           Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
           ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result,
           their understanding of cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous
           may act with confidence when sitting in front of a computer, but
           this may blind them to any possible retribution. They may not even
           know the impact of any online assault of cartels.
                o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
           will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
           individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
           drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
           halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not
           have a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
           Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &amp;
           Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
           consequences from this.
                o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
           are willing to go protect their operations.
                   o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                   o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
           community before, coercing computer science majors into working
           for them.
                   o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
           discovering hackers within Mexico.

            

           On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

             Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
             there are several issues to address and fix here.

             These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
             discussion:

                  o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine
             but we can't gloss over that fact
                  o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference
             between stealing bank records from government computers and
             overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                  o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
             information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
             kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
             talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
             politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
             going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
             killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
             operational details, because they acted as informants, because
             they exposed links with officials or because they somehow
             sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
             information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                  o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
             realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a
             measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity
             except for the technical ability by a very small number of its
             members to infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
             information. Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on
             a network that is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)?
             Where else could information be found? Government databases?
             Once we know what kind of information is accessible, we can also
             know more about the consequences of dissemination.
                  o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to
             trace back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of
             killings done by people who may not understand the difference
             between an anon hacker and a blogger.

             On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

               wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

               -------- Original Message --------

                Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                   Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                   From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
               Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                     To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

               you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need
               a lot more work

               You need to lay out:

               a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger
               section is unclear
               b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
               therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
               c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
               anything
               d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill
               anyone who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

               I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
               insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
               levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
               the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
               is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
               business online, in a protected fashion.

               Karen Hooper
               Latin America Analyst
               o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
               c: 512.750.7234
               STRATFOR
               www.stratfor.com
               On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

               On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

               Link: themeData

               Trigger

               Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
               Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?,
               lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
               denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
               released depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a
               screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent video release,
               Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels.
               Threats such as releasing identities of Mexican? American?
               taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who collude
               with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
               release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences.
               The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels
               and hackers, presents an unprecedented war front for the
               cartels. The vastly different operations of Anonymous and Los
               Zetas leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have
               little experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no
               experience with the cartels. I do not believe for a second
               that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                

               In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
               mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
               their demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be
               mentioned right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is
               threatening to hit back. Provide enough details so we
               understand who this guy is and why/how he was abducted. are
               not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing revealing
               information on cartel members and operations are true, cartels
               will likely respond with violence against individuals revealed
               as opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous members?.
               It also is likely that public disclosure of GOM officials who
               collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving
               the Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this
               means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
               effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against
               Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue
               their threats against any individual using online media WC....
               you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers
               here. against the cartels.

                

               The Battle Space

               Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
               realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
               of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
               geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
               exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
               are physical people tho live in the real world. They have
               names and addresses - although most of them are likely outside
               of MX.)  Anonymous' power base consists of their technical
               capabilities in hacking. Any information connected to the
               Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying
               the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's
               population could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of
               what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
               Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in
               revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't run
               operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money via
               e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on the web than
               the jihadists.)

               Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
               base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
               believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
               through the internet. This gives an opening for people
               disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
               dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience =
               troll. Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
               themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of serious IT
               capability. 

               The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has
               been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

               The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US
               and Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking
               to maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
               commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
               and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from
               insight. There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't
               have a similar capacity.  Their power base is built by large
               amounts of revenue and escalating brutal violence. Cartels
               like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing different types of
               threats. Cartels are always suffering at the hands of cartel
               on cartel violence. While battling each other, cartels still
               face arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to
               avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
               have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
               bloggers in order to cover details of their operations. ok...
               but that's kind of a red herrng for this discussion. You need
               to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't
               just assume they have no cyber presence.

                

               Anonymous' Weapons

               Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
               criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability
               to combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
               disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
               anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites
               in Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
               admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
               guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
               campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
               overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels view main
               stream media outlets and social media blogs as such a threat
               to their operations, that they have continued to target
               journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los
               Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on
               the body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
               denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive
               here, and it's not really addressing the subheading

               As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
               risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to
               suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing information they
               threaten to release. By releasing identities of individuals
               cooperating with Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life
               of those individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate
               sensitive information is limited by what is available via the
               Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
               should always be considered a possibility of an attack.
               However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the US
               governments computer networks, information available to
               Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy to acquire. 
               what are you trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

                

               Cartel's Defense

                           A counter response to the video? by the cartels
               has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a
               kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun
               addressing the threat posed by hackers so... how has there not
               been a counter response? also this undermines your statements
               above about how Anonymous is soley internet based, and
               underlines the vulnerabilities of associated members. How did
               they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that could very
               well give you some indication to the technical ability of the
               cartels . As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
               wide web , the cartels will face a number of challenges which
               rarely are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has
               whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You
               can assume (and we have good intel indicating that) they are
               working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening
               cartels, can operate in any region of the world. Personal
               information including locations is only available if a hacker
               chooses to divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy
               enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only work for
               Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
               online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or
               start employing hackers of their own under their payroll?
               Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                           Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
               Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
               help of computer science majors through personal threats has
               been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported
               where?.  Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence
               and drug trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of
               technical experts to help combat any threat by computer
               hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been
               demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable of
               identifying any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
               enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
               experience and resources than cartels, struggle to find
               hackers through investigations. A) How do you know they are
               not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm
               goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult to
               track down

                           In order to compete with an online foe, cartels
               will likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar
               with, brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
               operations within Mexico "still"? why would we assume they
               wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
               communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
               members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
               likely continue to be used to scare online media into
               submission i'm not really seeing the online
               media-international hacking group connection here.  The cruel
               manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer
               hackers have unlikely encountered before in their life.
               Whether the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence of
               Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels are able to
               seek out and capture members of the hacker group.. Or the
               Narcos could call the collective bluff and simply go on and
               shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

 --
 Sincerely,

 Marko Primorac
 Tactical Analyst
 marko.primorac@stratfor.com
 Tel: +1 512.744.4300
 Cell: +1 717.557.8480
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 18:59:47</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1002984_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1003207</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   I agree. I haven't seen any defining attributes of Anonymous as a group.
   They may not even know the identities of each other. There are several
   facebook / twitter Anonymous pages, which seem to be run by different
   individuals.

   What about defining Anonymous in terms of the individual? Instead of
   saying Anonymous attacking cartels, Individuals acting under the Anonymous
   name....

   -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents have access to,
   and doubt they have such information that provides any sort of existential
   threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 
   This is a problem with the threat assessment. Technically, anything cartel
   related (emails, online transactions, Mexican LEA information, etc.) would
   be available to a hacker, but we don't know if they have had access to
   this information, or if the hackers interested in harming cartels are
   capable. It's not even confirmed hackers have revealing information on
   cartel supporters which the video claims.

   On 10/24/11 1:11 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     Somehow we have to stop referring to 'anonymous' as a monolith.  They
     are a bunch of different people that essentially get together in an
     online-form of a mob to carry out some action. I'm not sure how to do
     this in writing consistently.  But let's start with shit like 'people
     joining Anonymous chatrooms and claiming to be part of the movement' or
     something like that. 

     Comments in green below.  This is coming together nicely. 

     On 10/24/11 11:19 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of
       these in the US?
        What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
       I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
       whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
       because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
       revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of
       understanding of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is
       expendable to cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of
       coercion.

       Anonymous does not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
       cartels.  mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of
       el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication
       as a tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable
       intelligence, the government will use it against the cartels. That's a
       physical threat, if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify
       that Anonymous can not directly effect physical security. Any impact
       to the cartel in revealing information will be from actions of rival
       cartels or the GoM. They may release information on a given politician
       being linked to the cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the
       politician will feel an impact (Just because Anonymous says there is a
       link, doesn't make it true). It would be up to others to take action. 
       I think the way you have it worded in the above sentence is good. 
       Follow with a sentence explaining the rest of it, because readers will
       have the same question Karen did.  Something like 'Rather, the threat
       to cartels would come in what information anonymous could expose that
       is useful to their enemies'

       Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online
       activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to
       conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't know how
       much, but we do know they will have some points of operational
       vulnerability I have heard of cartels doing business online, but don't
       have specific examples which could be used in assessing their
       vulnerability online.

       by "no consequences" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired,
       arrested or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I
       should say, there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out
       politicians as colluding.
       On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
         c: 512.750.7234
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
         Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
         possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
         Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by people using
         the banner of Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on
         cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
         find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual
         being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico
         and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual
         posting flyers ['critical of cartels'?] in Veracruz as part of the
         Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation. [this is
         good and will be enough information to go with, though you'll need a
         quick explanation of what 'operation paperstorm' is.  Adding
         something in the explaining the flyers will work]

         Link: themeData
         Anonymous, a decentralized hacker collective  famous for distributed
         denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government and corporate
         websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
         statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
         depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on
         October 10? With the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold
         threats towards the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as
         releasing identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
         journalists who collude with criminal cartels do they specify
         whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of these in the US?
          What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
         group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
         face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
         was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
         their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
         potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
         presents a unique threat towards TCOs [If TCO= transnational
         criminal organization, it's not really unique.  Many such
         organizations do their crimes online, and have been hacked in
         response--like the nigerian princess scams. I think you should just
         say it's a unique threat to DTOs] . We know of cartels lashing out
         at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels
         dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

         What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
              o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
         threat to Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a
         gun to the head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for
         the using publication as a tool to force government action. If you
         reveal actionable intelligence, the government will use it against
         the cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
              o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
         media
              o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out
         at cartels

         While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
         threat, if it had access to certain types of information:

                 -The threat is in the information they can expose that may
     be of use to any cartel enemies.  That could be to the government or
     other cartels or even local citizens (the last one may be a stretch, but
     i could imagine someone discrediting cartel members in the eyes of the
     public).

              o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims tocut possess
         identifiable information on cartel members 
              o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
         cartels [cut this part here, and make the point at the end of this
         section/paragraph]
              o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
         identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in
         the realm of possibilities for
                     Anonymous
                     o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
         illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels
         are known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We
         don't know how much, but we do know they will have some points of
         operational vulnerability

        -They claim to have information on those that collude with cartels 
     (use the stuff you have above].  Releasing such information could hurt
     cartels' support networks, but most of these people are also easily
     replaceable. 
                 -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents
     have access to, and doubt they have such information that provides any
     sort of existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 

         Most Anonymous hackers are likely far removed from the ultra-violent
         world of drug trafficking in Mexico, but it's quite possible that
         some of its members in this campaign are in Mexico and opposed to
         the violence [or something like that.  my limited understanding is
         there are still activist crusader-types in Mexico, yeah?  it seems
         very possible those with a bit of time or computer skills could have
         joined up with anonymous] . As a result, their understanding of
         cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous members in other
         countries may act with confidence when sitting in front of a
         computer, but this may blind them to any possible retribution. They
         may not even know the impact of any online assault of cartels.  [the
         part below and above is written rather normatively.  We need to take
         that out.  just state the facts]
              o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
         will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
         individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
         drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
         halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not have
         a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
         Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &amp;
         Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
         consequences from this. by "no consequences" what exactly do you
         mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and that happens all
         the time.
              o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
         are willing to go protect their operations.
                 o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                 o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
         community before, coercing computer science majors into working for
         them.
                 o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
         discovering hackers within Mexico.
         need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply
         publishing tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the
         same camp as the bloggers  [yes, i think it needs to be clear that
         their damage will be similar to what bloggers or wikileaks can
         do--limited.  But maybe more a danger to themselves, since they are
         no longer challenging governments, but criminal organizations]

          

         On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

           Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
           there are several issues to address and fix here.

           These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
           discussion:

                o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but
           we can't gloss over that fact
                o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference
           between stealing bank records from government computers and
           overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
           information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
           kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
           talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
           politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
           going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
           killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
           operational details, because they acted as informants, because
           they exposed links with officials or because they somehow sullied
           the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of information is
           damaging to the cartels themselves?
                o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
           realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure
           of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for
           the technical ability by a very small number of its members to
           infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal information.
           Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on a network that
           is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
           information be found? Government databases? Once we know what kind
           of information is accessible, we can also know more about the
           consequences of dissemination.
                o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
           back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings
           done by people who may not understand the difference between an
           anon hacker and a blogger.

           On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

             wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

             -------- Original Message --------

              Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                 Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                 From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
             Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                   To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

             you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a
             lot more work

             You need to lay out:

             a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section
             is unclear
             b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
             therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
             c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
             d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone
             who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

             I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
             insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
             levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
             the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
             is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
             business online, in a protected fashion.

             Karen Hooper
             Latin America Analyst
             o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
             c: 512.750.7234
             STRATFOR
             www.stratfor.com
             On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

             On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             Link: themeData

             Trigger

             Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
             Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed
             out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
             denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released
             depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a screen?
             exactly when?.  With the most recent video release, Anonymous
             makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels. Threats such as
             releasing identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
             politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels.
             The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped
             member otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
             between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
             unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly different
             operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
             Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
             believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
             not believe for a second that the cartels have no experience
             with hackers.

              

             In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned
             as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their
             demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned
             right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening
             to hit back. Provide enough details so we understand who this
             guy is and why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous'
             claims of possessing revealing information on cartel members and
             operations are true, cartels will likely respond with violence
             against individuals revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you
             mean Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public
             disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force the
             GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i
             don't understand what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten
             Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
             against Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will
             continue their threats against any individual using online media
             WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about
             bloggers here. against the cartels.

              

             The Battle Space

             Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
             realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
             of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
             geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
             exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
             are physical people tho live in the real world. They have names
             and addresses - although most of them are likely outside of MX.)
              Anonymous' power base consists of their technical capabilities
             in hacking. Any information connected to the Internet is
             vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of
             individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population
             could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
             has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big
             company with a website that brings in revenue, but it does not
             really matter if you don't run operations on the web. Los Z
             don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are also far less
             dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

             Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
             base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
             believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
             through the internet. This gives an opening for people
             disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
             dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll.
             Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
             themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of serious IT
             capability. 

             The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been
             from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

             The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
             Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
             maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
             commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
             and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight.
             There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar
             capacity.  Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue
             and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
             experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels are
             always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence.
             While battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law
             Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in
             the flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted media
             outlets. Murdering journalists and online bloggers in order to
             cover details of their operations. ok... but that's kind of a
             red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus on the
             possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
             have no cyber presence.

              

             Anonymous' Weapons

             Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
             criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
             combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
             disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
             anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites in
             Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
             admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
             guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
             campaign by technically elite individuals can not be overlooked
             should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream media
             outlets and social media blogs as such a threat to their
             operations, that they have continued to target journalists and
             bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was placed
             with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the body of a
             blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce cartels
             on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not
             really addressing the subheading

             As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
             risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest
             Anonymous is capable of possessing information they threaten to
             release. By releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
             Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
             individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
             information is limited by what is available via the Internet.
             Government computers connected to the Internet should always be
             considered a possibility of an attack. However, as with the
             compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer
             networks, information available to Mexico's intelligence
             collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to
             say here? This isn't clear at all

              

             Cartel's Defense

                         A counter response to the video? by the cartels has
             yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped
             member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the
             threat posed by hackers so... how has there not been a counter
             response? also this undermines your statements above about how
             Anonymous is soley internet based, and underlines the
             vulnerabilities of associated members. How did they find teh
             Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well give you
             some indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
             Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the
             cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed
             for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies
             dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and
             we have good intel indicating that) they are working on
             disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can
             operate in any region of the world. Personal information
             including locations is only available if a hacker chooses to
             divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
             figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous. Cartels
             are only capable of dealing with their online enemy, if they can
             physically reach out to them. Or start employing hackers of
             their own under their payroll? Stranger things have happened,
             Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                         Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
             Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
             help of computer science majors through personal threats has
             been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported where?. 
             Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence and drug
             trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of technical
             experts to help combat any threat by computer hackers.  While
             identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it
             is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
             operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies such
             as the FBi, with far more technical experience and resources
             than cartels, struggle to find hackers through investigations.
             A) How do you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they
             kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are
             equally difficult to track down

                         In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
             likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with,
             brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
             operations within Mexico "still"? why would we assume they
             wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
             communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
             members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
             likely continue to be used to scare online media into submission
             i'm not really seeing the online media-international hacking
             group connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
             inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
             encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of cartel
             violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to be
             seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of
             the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff
             and simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can
             inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 20:50:49</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1003207_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tristan.reed@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1003423</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   Sean, just to be clear

   Your point is that Anonymous hasn't mattered?  Is your argument that
   hackers haven't mattered either?  because if Anonymous is a mob of hackers
   as you argue, how haven't they mattered to their targets?  what about all
   the money spent fighting them?  and as Tristan just pointed out - how
   about HBGary Federal?  He said the CEO's SSN and address were posted on
   Twitter.  What about all the sensitive emails that were lost?  We have no
   way of knowing what was in those emails, or how they are being used to
   make money at the expense of HBGary.  I have always agreed that they
   haven't reached a level of threat to the US, but that surely doesn't mean
   they won't.  And there are quite a few countries, organizations, and
   people below that rather high standard who could not withstand an attack,
   including an email purge of personal emails onto the web. 

   On 10/24/11 7:33 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     As far as Aurora, I haven't followed it closely. Did they ever identify
     the attackers or number of attackers? I thought the target set was the
     only thing that led people to believe the Chinese government was
     responsible.

     2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
     responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating cyber
     intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case HUMINT is
     just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT capabilities does not
     indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers. NSA may have there own
     department for tracking hackers but it does not make it SIGINT.

     Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

     Wikipedia provides an indepth explanation on SIGINT . But in short,
     SIGINT is the capability in exploiting signals provided by communication
     devices, and what can be obtained by exploiting the signals. Combining
     computer network operations and SIGINT is innaccurate, because while
     SIGINT may be used with other intelligence disciplines in order to
     identify a hacker, it is not necessary and is no more related than any
     other intel discipline. SIGINT could help you identify a computer
     devices (not the operator) emitting a signal (wifi), and cryptanalysis,
     which is also separate from SIGINT but often used in conjunction, could
     help in providing methods to decrypt messages over a network, but SIGINT
     wouldn't obtain those messages.

     In order to exploit computer network operations, the operators involved
     are specifically trained in computer science disciplines and
     technologies tailored specifically for computer activity.

     NSA also is the primary agency for cryptanalysis. Because of
     technological demands of SIGINT and cryptanalysis, NSA has enormous
     resources in R&amp;D, so I can see why the USG would move some CNO to NSA.
     But their SIGINT capabilities are not indicators of CNO capabilities.

     Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary labor
     for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are discussing
     operations on the scale of causing physical damage to extremely
     sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of a cyber attack that
     matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not mattered.  You chose the most
     prolific example of a cyber attack (which the whole operation consisted
     mainly outside of the cyber attack itself). Anything that falls short of
     this doesn't matter? Define what matters. None of anonymous' attacks
     have physically damaged secret Iranian nuclear facilities, but I think
     you are downplaying too much the significance of exposing corporate
     secrets, halting businesses' revenues, and embarrassing State actors by
     defacing their websites.

     On 10/24/11 5:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       On 10/24/11 5:07 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

         On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already The USG
           arrested 10 Russian spies last year, are you willing to say
           foreign intel is not capable of conducting espionage undetected?
           No, of course not.  But I also would not argue that the SVR is so
           good to be immune to detection, as you are arguing with hackers. 
           I'm saying they are more detectable than you think.  There is no
           such thing as truly anonymous.  Everythign leaves a trail.  Will
           that trail in every instance lead to a single individual? no.  but
           it can lead to a place, an organization, and often, an
           individual. 

           2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
           responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating
           cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this
           case HUMINT is just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT
           capabilities does not indicate its capabilities in tracking
           hackers. NSA may have there own department for tracking hackers
           but it does not make it SIGINT.

           Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

           The question is if the attack is high priority enough.  Many
           people assume there is no attribution because there is no
           response, but I don't think that is accurate.  Many people say
           this, because no attribution is one reason for no response.  Yes,
           they do, and if they think that is the primary reason for lack of
           response, then I think they are wrong. 

           3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new
           laptop and start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack
           involves much more than a recently bought laptop.  In the same way
           there is an attack cycle for a terrorist attack or crime, there is
           one for a cyber attack.  A very simple attack may be as hard to
           trace as a nearly-random mugging in the dark in a neighborhood
           with much more serious crime and no CCTV cameras.  A more
           complicated attack, however, involves pre-operational
           surveillance, developing exploits, developing programs and code,
           gaining access, exploiting that, and carrying out an attack. 
           Discovering exploits and writing code can be done entirely
           offline, out of sight of law enforcement or intel agencies.
           Pre-operational surveillance and gaining access (the point of the
           exploit you write offline) would fit in my example. The point is,
           if you don't link your computer to identifiable information, you
           remain anonymous. Just like people use certain methods to build
           IEDs, people use certain mehtods to design programs and code for
           cyber attacks.  Over time, those methods become identifiable and
           more and more attributable. This is, for example, how AURORA is
           linked back to the Chinese.  and very specific Chinese, I may add.
           Being connected or unconnected doesn't matter, eventually you have
           to use what you develop, or copy from someone, and all of those
           things can be analyzed.   And that takes time, giving more time
           for your exposure Exposure comes from network activity with the
           target, a lot of the pre-operational phase of an attack can occur
           without network activity. Look at everything that went into
           Stuxnet as a great example, that couldn't be done with one person
           with a new laptop. Writing the code and hacking was just a small
           part of necessary labor for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't
           think we are discussing operations on the scale of causing
           physical damage to extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is
           an example of a cyber attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so
           far has not mattered.   All of this activity provides activity and
           evidence which helps for attribution.  Of course it is always
           possible to develop an attack, just like any other operation, that
           even the best law enforcement and national intelligence agencies
           have trouble or cannot attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that
           it's very difficult for someone to successfully use Anonymous as a
           cover and have NSA, GHQ, MID, Aman, etc, be unable to attribute
           it.  How do you know if NSA or GHQ is effective in identifying
           hackers?I don't, but I'm confident they are far better than you
           are allowing for.    They may not choose to cover it if it is
           small scale crime, however. 
           On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored
             cyber warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing
             that, since you can conduct a cyber attack without associating
             with a hacker group and still deny / cover actions on behalf of
             the State. An individual attacking US computer assets from
             China, may be working by himself or on behalf of the Chinese
             government, but unless the US has other intel on the Chinese
             government's cyber warfare activities in order to corroborate
             there is little capability to distinguish.

             It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
             operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets
             from SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual
             responsible for hacking State run servers. In the past, I have
             turned to SIGINT organizations for collections on computer
             related material, but this was due to the US being behind in
             cyber warfare, and not knowing where to assign responsibility.
             However, this has changed dramatically in the last couple of
             years.

             Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As
             an extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go
             to a Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the
             online activity to something revealing (accessing personal email
             accounts, tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop,
             etc..), and begin hacking government email accounts then never
             use the laptop again. Unless LEA could get an accurate
             description of my appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible
             security cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

             Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to
             these enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied
             to specific computer-related activities because of the
             difficulty in identifying individuals.

             I think the most likely way for a "Anonymous cover" to be blown,
             would be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a
             common participant in "Anonymous" activities, was working for a
             State? Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that
             State agent organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter
             buddies, what signs could a LEA look for to distinguish?

             On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

               In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a
               bit)

               1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything
               actually harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't,
               but i'm very doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first
               real case where they could do some minor damage--to individual
               people, not not to an organization or anything that would come
               as a serious or strategic threat. 

               2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is
               actually pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as
               a cover, but that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could
               probably still be attributed if important enough to those
               agencies.  The recent attack on Sony actually brings this
               issue up- Whoever is calling themselves anonymous denies they
               did it.  And keep in mind how much they have claimed an
               publicized attacks in the past, even before they were carried
               out.  The attack on the Playstation Network was more
               sophisticated than anonymous' usual work (though potentially
               coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that distracted
               Sony's IT security).  But whoever did it, again, no real
               damage came of it.  Congress is holding hearings over data
               security, but this is no different than the OC groups stealing
               your credit card information.  LE will go after them, have
               some success, but the threat is not that large. 
               On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

                 Link: themeData

                 I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to
                 have a broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no
                 nothing, or almost nothing about what this group is and the
                 threat it poses. Reviewing their list of attacks
                 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in
                 most of the cases, they are the "good" guys, sort of a Robin
                 Hood of the internet . The interesting thing when it comes
                 to their interactions with the cartels is the dubious role
                 they play: at the same time they can be fighting crime by
                 revealing cartel members/supporters, but they can also put
                 lives in risk.

                 However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
                 Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth,
                 can conduct a cyber attack under "Anonymous" is worrisome.
                 (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

                 If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
                 websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to
                 know more about these guys. Who they are? What are they
                 interested in? How they operate? Who they have targeted so
                 far? How can I defend myself from them? In what countries
                 are they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use
                 them to achieve any particular goal?

                 On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                   nice.  i still think the central focus, and what
                   everything else can build off of, is that Anonymous
                   doesn't know the threat they pose to innocent people
                   caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing on
                   journalists or taxi drivers they show little understanding
                   of the situation.  This has long term implications in not
                   just Mexico.  They don't consider the consequences of
                   their actions and they act without understanding the
                   environment.  It was the same when they released
                   information on the Sony Playstation network to protest
                   Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

                   On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                     Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of
                     discussing possible cartel responses, the focus is on
                     what type of threat Anonymous can pose to cartels. The
                     video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing
                     personal information on cartels as well as states a
                     member had been kidnapped. I could not find any sources
                     outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being
                     kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous
                     Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be
                     an individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the
                     Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is
                     speculation.

                     Link: themeData
                     Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
                     distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on
                     government websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the
                     Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's criminal
                     cartels, including a video depicting a masked individual
                     addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the
                     most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats
                     towards the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as
                     releasing identities of taxi drivers, police,
                     politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal
                     cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a
                     fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. In
                     the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                     mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                     reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped
                     member are not met. The potential of conflict between
                     Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents a unique
                     threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out at
                     online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on
                     cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

                     What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                          o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical
                     security threat to Mexican cartels.
                          o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to
                     exploit online media
                          o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico
                     to lash out at cartels

                     While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to
                     pose a threat
                          o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to
                     possess identifiable information on cartel members
                          o     It is unknown what information Anonymous
                     could acquire on cartels
                          o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
                     communications, identifiable information on cartels
                     members have to be considered in the realm of
                     possibilities for
                                 Anonymous
                                 o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability
                     to reveal illicit online activity (child pornography
                     rings)

                     Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
                     ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
                     result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
                     limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting
                     in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any
                     possible retribution. They may not even know the impact
                     of any online assault of cartels.
                          o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
                     journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not
                     understand some of these individuals are forced to
                     collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are
                     often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
                     halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals
                     will not have a significant impact on cartel            
                           operations. Politicans have been accused of
                     working with cartels (Guerrero &amp; Veracruz' governor)
                     before, however there has yet to be any consequences
                     from this.
                          o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the
                     extent cartels are willing to go protect their
                     operations.
                             o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                             o    Cartels have reached out to the computer
                     science community before, coercing computer science
                     majors into working for them.
                             o    This provides the cartels with the
                     possibility of discovering hackers within Mexico.

                      

                     On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                       Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the
                       idea but there are several issues to address and fix
                       here.

                       These are the bullets of my main analytical concern
                       with the discussion:

                            o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why.
                       that's fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                            o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a
                       difference between stealing bank records from
                       government computers and overloading www.loszetas.com
                       main page.
                            o     There's no thought out process of what sort
                       of information could anon have on the cartels. What
                       kind of info is kept online and accessible to
                       potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
                       identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
                       politicians and businessmen who need to worry about
                       what anon is going to be saying. Think about why the
                       bloggers and media were killed in previous instances.
                       Was it because they revealed operational details,
                       because they acted as informants, because they exposed
                       links with officials or because they somehow sullied
                       the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
                       information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                            o     Once you identify this info - think about
                       if anon can realistically access it and disseminate it
                       so it causes a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have
                       any intelligence capacity except for the technical
                       ability by a very small number of its members to
                       infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
                       information. Now what kind of information would a
                       cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
                       internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
                       information be found? Government databases? Once we
                       know what kind of information is accessible, we can
                       also know more about the consequences of
                       dissemination.
                            o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel?
                       Sufficient to trace back attacks? If it's not, there
                       risks to be a lot of killings done by people who may
                       not understand the difference between an anon hacker
                       and a blogger.

                       On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                         wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                         -------- Original Message --------

                          Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                             Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                             From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
                         Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                               To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

                         you've got some of the issues here, but this is
                         going to need a lot more work

                         You need to lay out:

                         a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your
                         trigger section is unclear
                         b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence
                         is, and therefore their vulnerabilities and
                         capabilities
                         c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high
                         security anything
                         d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to
                         kill anyone who breaches their systems or exposes
                         their connections

                         I also just want to point out that we have
                         reasonable reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very
                         least has some significant levels of sophistication
                         in their online presence, to include the use of
                         cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
                         is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also
                         conduct business online, in a protected fashion.

                         Karen Hooper
                         Latin America Analyst
                         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                         c: 512.750.7234
                         STRATFOR
                         www.stratfor.com
                         On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                         On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                         Link: themeData

                         Trigger

                         Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy,
                         hackers. Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group
                         famous for...?, lashed out at drug cartels via the
                         Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
                         criminal cartels, including a video released
                         depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a
                         screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent video
                         release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                         criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing
                         identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers,
                         police, politicians, and journalists who collude
                         with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los
                         Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
                         face consequences. The potential of conflict between
                         Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
                         unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly
                         different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas
                         leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have
                         little experience in handling. i believe that
                         Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
                         not believe for a second that the cartels have no
                         experience with hackers.

                          

                         In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
                         was mentioned as a day cartels could expect
                         Anonymous' reaction if their demands of releasing a
                         kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up
                         front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is
                         threatening to hit back. Provide enough details so
                         we understand who this guy is and why/how he was
                         abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of
                         possessing revealing information on cartel members
                         and operations are true, cartels will likely respond
                         with violence against individuals revealed as
                         opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous
                         members?. It also is likely that public disclosure
                         of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force
                         the GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat
                         complexity i don't understand what this means. You
                         mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
                         effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
                         against Anonymous remains unanswered . However,
                         cartels will continue their threats against any
                         individual using online media WC.... you mean tools?
                         or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here.
                         against the cartels.

                          

                         The Battle Space

                         Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two
                         separate realities from each other. Anonymous
                         operates solely in sphere of the computer networks.
                         Anonymous does not experience geographical
                         boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
                         exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely
                         true. They are physical people tho live in the real
                         world. They have names and addresses - although most
                         of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power
                         base consists of their technical capabilities in
                         hacking. Any information connected to the Internet
                         is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying
                         the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst
                         of Mexico's population could be quite difficult.
                          Remember that most of what Anonymous has done are
                         DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big
                         company with a website that brings in revenue, but
                         it does not really matter if you don't run
                         operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money
                         via e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on
                         the web than the jihadists.)

                         Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but
                         it's power base consists of the perceived anonymity
                         that its members believe themselves to have, real or
                         otherwise, by operating through the internet. This
                         gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
                         and everything to practice general dickery. As the
                         popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll.
                         Only a fraction of the large web of people who
                         identify themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of
                         serious IT capability. 

                         The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so
                         far has been from targeted arrests by Law
                         Enforcement Agencies.

                         The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the
                         streets in US and Mexican cities. They are run as a
                         business, always looking to maximize profits and
                         expand. But they are bricks and mortar commerce.
                         Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
                         and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that
                         from insight. There is no reason to assume that Los
                         Zetas don't have a similar capacity.  Their power
                         base is built by large amounts of revenue and
                         escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas,
                         are experienced in facing different types of
                         threats. Cartels are always suffering at the hands
                         of cartel on cartel violence. While battling each
                         other, cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement
                         Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in
                         the flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted
                         media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
                         bloggers in order to cover details of their
                         operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng
                         for this discussion. You need to focus on the
                         possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just
                         assume they have no cyber presence.

                          

                         Anonymous' Weapons

                         Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous'
                         actions against criminal cartels has yet to be seen.
                         Anonymous' only ability to combat cartels lay in
                         information operations, mainly disseminating
                         sensitive information on cartels and propagating
                         anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced
                         websites in Mexico you mean so far and that we know
                         of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
                         cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The
                         significance of a targeted information operations
                         campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
                         overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels
                         view main stream media outlets and social media
                         blogs as such a threat to their operations, that
                         they have continued to target journalists and
                         bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas
                         was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly,
                         on the body of a blogger. The message threatened any
                         users who denounce cartels on blogging websites.
                         getting repetitive here, and it's not really
                         addressing the subheading

                         As stated earlier, any information connected to the
                         internet risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is
                         ample reason to suggest Anonymous is capable of
                         possessing information they threaten to release. By
                         releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
                         Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of
                         those individuals. Anonymous's ability to
                         disseminate sensitive information is limited by what
                         is available via the Internet. Government computers
                         connected to the Internet should always be
                         considered a possibility of an attack. However, as
                         with the compartmentalized nature of the US
                         governments computer networks, information available
                         to Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy
                         to acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This
                         isn't clear at all

                          

                         Cartel's Defense

                                     A counter response to the video? by the
                         cartels has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous'
                         claims of a kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest
                         Los Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by
                         hackers so... how has there not been a counter
                         response? also this undermines your statements above
                         about how Anonymous is soley internet based, and
                         underlines the vulnerabilities of associated
                         members. How did they find teh Anonymous member? The
                         answer to that could very well give you some
                         indication to the technical ability of the cartels .
                         As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
                         wide web , the cartels will face a number of
                         challenges which rarely are posed for them Again,
                         how do you know? The USG has whole agencies
                         dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can
                         assume (and we have good intel indicating that) they
                         are working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers
                         threatening cartels, can operate in any region of
                         the world. Personal information including locations
                         is only available if a hacker chooses to divulge it
                         or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
                         figure it out. Hackers don't only work for
                         Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with
                         their online enemy, if they can physically reach out
                         to them. Or start employing hackers of their own
                         under their payroll? Stranger things have happened,
                         Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                                     Cartels have been known to coerce the
                         services of Mexican citizens with a technical
                         background. Recruiting the help of computer science
                         majors through personal threats has been reported in
                         the past where? What cartels? reported where?. 
                         Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence
                         and drug trafficking, they will likely need the
                         assistance of technical experts to help combat any
                         threat by computer hackers.  While identifying
                         bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it
                         is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any
                         hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
                         enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more
                         technical experience and resources than cartels,
                         struggle to find hackers through investigations. A)
                         How do you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the
                         guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that
                         not all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                                     In order to compete with an online foe,
                         cartels will likely continue counter tactics they
                         are most familiar with, brute force. Cartels are
                         still capable of their HUMINT operations within
                         Mexico "still"? why would we assume they wouldn't
                         be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
                         communities will likely be targeted and interrogated
                         by cartel members.  Narco banners and public display
                         of violence will likely continue to be used to scare
                         online media into submission i'm not really seeing
                         the online media-international hacking group
                         connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
                         inflict harm, is something computer hackers have
                         unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether
                         the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence
                         of Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels
                         are able to seek out and capture members of the
                         hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the
                         collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off any
                         inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

               --

               Sean Noonan

               Tactical Analyst

               Office: +1 512-279-9479

               Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

               Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

               www.stratfor.com

           --

           Sean Noonan

           Tactical Analyst

           Office: +1 512-279-9479

           Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

           Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

           www.stratfor.com

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
</description>
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    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
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  <doc>
    <id>1003511</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   Yes, in response to your first question. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Colby Martin" &lt;colby.martin@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: analysts@stratfor.com
   Sent: Monday, October 24, 2011 7:47:49 PM
   Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels

   Sean, just to be clear

   Your point is that Anonymous hasn't mattered?  Is your argument that
   hackers haven't mattered either?  because if Anonymous is a mob of hackers
   as you argue, how haven't they mattered to their targets?  what about all
   the money spent fighting them?  and as Tristan just pointed out - how
   about HBGary Federal?  He said the CEO's SSN and address were posted on
   Twitter.  What about all the sensitive emails that were lost?  We have no
   way of knowing what was in those emails, or how they are being used to
   make money at the expense of HBGary.  I have always agreed that they
   haven't reached a level of threat to the US, but that surely doesn't mean
   they won't.  And there are quite a few countries, organizations, and
   people below that rather high standard who could not withstand an attack,
   including an email purge of personal emails onto the web. 

   On 10/24/11 7:33 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     As far as Aurora, I haven't followed it closely. Did they ever identify
     the attackers or number of attackers? I thought the target set was the
     only thing that led people to believe the Chinese government was
     responsible.

     2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
     responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating cyber
     intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case HUMINT is
     just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT capabilities does not
     indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers. NSA may have there own
     department for tracking hackers but it does not make it SIGINT.

     Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

     Wikipedia provides an indepth explanation on SIGINT . But in short,
     SIGINT is the capability in exploiting signals provided by communication
     devices, and what can be obtained by exploiting the signals. Combining
     computer network operations and SIGINT is innaccurate, because while
     SIGINT may be used with other intelligence disciplines in order to
     identify a hacker, it is not necessary and is no more related than any
     other intel discipline. SIGINT could help you identify a computer
     devices (not the operator) emitting a signal (wifi), and cryptanalysis,
     which is also separate from SIGINT but often used in conjunction, could
     help in providing methods to decrypt messages over a network, but SIGINT
     wouldn't obtain those messages.

     In order to exploit computer network operations, the operators involved
     are specifically trained in computer science disciplines and
     technologies tailored specifically for computer activity.

     NSA also is the primary agency for cryptanalysis. Because of
     technological demands of SIGINT and cryptanalysis, NSA has enormous
     resources in R&amp;D, so I can see why the USG would move some CNO to NSA.
     But their SIGINT capabilities are not indicators of CNO capabilities.

     Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary labor
     for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are discussing
     operations on the scale of causing physical damage to extremely
     sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of a cyber attack that
     matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not mattered.  You chose the most
     prolific example of a cyber attack (which the whole operation consisted
     mainly outside of the cyber attack itself). Anything that falls short of
     this doesn't matter? Define what matters. None of anonymous' attacks
     have physically damaged secret Iranian nuclear facilities, but I think
     you are downplaying too much the significance of exposing corporate
     secrets, halting businesses' revenues, and embarrassing State actors by
     defacing their websites.

     On 10/24/11 5:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       On 10/24/11 5:07 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

         On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already The USG
           arrested 10 Russian spies last year, are you willing to say
           foreign intel is not capable of conducting espionage undetected?
           No, of course not.  But I also would not argue that the SVR is so
           good to be immune to detection, as you are arguing with hackers. 
           I'm saying they are more detectable than you think.  There is no
           such thing as truly anonymous.  Everythign leaves a trail.  Will
           that trail in every instance lead to a single individual? no.  but
           it can lead to a place, an organization, and often, an
           individual. 

           2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
           responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating
           cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this
           case HUMINT is just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT
           capabilities does not indicate its capabilities in tracking
           hackers. NSA may have there own department for tracking hackers
           but it does not make it SIGINT.

           Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

           The question is if the attack is high priority enough.  Many
           people assume there is no attribution because there is no
           response, but I don't think that is accurate.  Many people say
           this, because no attribution is one reason for no response.  Yes,
           they do, and if they think that is the primary reason for lack of
           response, then I think they are wrong. 

           3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new
           laptop and start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack
           involves much more than a recently bought laptop.  In the same way
           there is an attack cycle for a terrorist attack or crime, there is
           one for a cyber attack.  A very simple attack may be as hard to
           trace as a nearly-random mugging in the dark in a neighborhood
           with much more serious crime and no CCTV cameras.  A more
           complicated attack, however, involves pre-operational
           surveillance, developing exploits, developing programs and code,
           gaining access, exploiting that, and carrying out an attack. 
           Discovering exploits and writing code can be done entirely
           offline, out of sight of law enforcement or intel agencies.
           Pre-operational surveillance and gaining access (the point of the
           exploit you write offline) would fit in my example. The point is,
           if you don't link your computer to identifiable information, you
           remain anonymous. Just like people use certain methods to build
           IEDs, people use certain mehtods to design programs and code for
           cyber attacks.  Over time, those methods become identifiable and
           more and more attributable. This is, for example, how AURORA is
           linked back to the Chinese.  and very specific Chinese, I may add.
           Being connected or unconnected doesn't matter, eventually you have
           to use what you develop, or copy from someone, and all of those
           things can be analyzed.   And that takes time, giving more time
           for your exposure Exposure comes from network activity with the
           target, a lot of the pre-operational phase of an attack can occur
           without network activity. Look at everything that went into
           Stuxnet as a great example, that couldn't be done with one person
           with a new laptop. Writing the code and hacking was just a small
           part of necessary labor for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't
           think we are discussing operations on the scale of causing
           physical damage to extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is
           an example of a cyber attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so
           far has not mattered.   All of this activity provides activity and
           evidence which helps for attribution.  Of course it is always
           possible to develop an attack, just like any other operation, that
           even the best law enforcement and national intelligence agencies
           have trouble or cannot attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that
           it's very difficult for someone to successfully use Anonymous as a
           cover and have NSA, GHQ, MID, Aman, etc, be unable to attribute
           it.  How do you know if NSA or GHQ is effective in identifying
           hackers?I don't, but I'm confident they are far better than you
           are allowing for.    They may not choose to cover it if it is
           small scale crime, however. 
           On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored
             cyber warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing
             that, since you can conduct a cyber attack without associating
             with a hacker group and still deny / cover actions on behalf of
             the State. An individual attacking US computer assets from
             China, may be working by himself or on behalf of the Chinese
             government, but unless the US has other intel on the Chinese
             government's cyber warfare activities in order to corroborate
             there is little capability to distinguish.

             It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
             operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets
             from SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual
             responsible for hacking State run servers. In the past, I have
             turned to SIGINT organizations for collections on computer
             related material, but this was due to the US being behind in
             cyber warfare, and not knowing where to assign responsibility.
             However, this has changed dramatically in the last couple of
             years.

             Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As
             an extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go
             to a Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the
             online activity to something revealing (accessing personal email
             accounts, tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop,
             etc..), and begin hacking government email accounts then never
             use the laptop again. Unless LEA could get an accurate
             description of my appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible
             security cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

             Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to
             these enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied
             to specific computer-related activities because of the
             difficulty in identifying individuals.

             I think the most likely way for a "Anonymous cover" to be blown,
             would be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a
             common participant in "Anonymous" activities, was working for a
             State? Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that
             State agent organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter
             buddies, what signs could a LEA look for to distinguish?

             On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

               In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a
               bit)

               1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything
               actually harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't,
               but i'm very doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first
               real case where they could do some minor damage--to individual
               people, not not to an organization or anything that would come
               as a serious or strategic threat. 

               2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is
               actually pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as
               a cover, but that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could
               probably still be attributed if important enough to those
               agencies.  The recent attack on Sony actually brings this
               issue up- Whoever is calling themselves anonymous denies they
               did it.  And keep in mind how much they have claimed an
               publicized attacks in the past, even before they were carried
               out.  The attack on the Playstation Network was more
               sophisticated than anonymous' usual work (though potentially
               coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that distracted
               Sony's IT security).  But whoever did it, again, no real
               damage came of it.  Congress is holding hearings over data
               security, but this is no different than the OC groups stealing
               your credit card information.  LE will go after them, have
               some success, but the threat is not that large. 
               On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

                 I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to
                 have a broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no
                 nothing, or almost nothing about what this group is and the
                 threat it poses. Reviewing their list of attacks
                 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in
                 most of the cases, they are the a**gooda** guys, sort of a
                 Robin Hood of the internet . The interesting thing when it
                 comes to their interactions with the cartels is the dubious
                 role they play: at the same time they can be fighting crime
                 by revealing cartel members/supporters, but they can also
                 put lives in risk.

                 However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
                 Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth,
                 can conduct a cyber attack under a**Anonymousa** is
                 worrisome.
                 (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

                 If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
                 websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to
                 know more about these guys. Who they are? What are they
                 interested in? How they operate? Who they have targeted so
                 far? How can I defend myself from them? In what countries
                 are they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use
                 them to achieve any particular goal?

                 On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                   nice.  i still think the central focus, and what
                   everything else can build off of, is that Anonymous
                   doesn't know the threat they pose to innocent people
                   caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing on
                   journalists or taxi drivers they show little understanding
                   of the situation.  This has long term implications in not
                   just Mexico.  They don't consider the consequences of
                   their actions and they act without understanding the
                   environment.  It was the same when they released
                   information on the Sony Playstation network to protest
                   Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

                   On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                     Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of
                     discussing possible cartel responses, the focus is on
                     what type of threat Anonymous can pose to cartels. The
                     video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing
                     personal information on cartels as well as states a
                     member had been kidnapped. I could not find any sources
                     outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being
                     kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous
                     Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be
                     an individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the
                     Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is
                     speculation.

                     Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
                     distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on
                     government websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the
                     Internet with a statements denouncing Mexicoa**s
                     criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked
                     individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October
                     10? With the most recent video release, Anonymous makes
                     bold threats towards the criminal cartels in Mexico.
                     Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers,
                     police, politicians, and journalists who collude with
                     criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
                     release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
                     consequences. In the Anonymousa** video, this coming
                     November 5th was mentioned as a day cartels could expect
                     Anonymousa** reaction if their demands of releasing a
                     kidnapped member are not met. The potential of conflict
                     between Mexicoa**s criminal cartels and hackers,
                     presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of
                     cartels lashing out at online bloggers, but I havena**t
                     seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches
                     from hackers before. 

                     What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                         a*-c-    Anonymous would not pose a direct physical
                     security threat to Mexican cartels.
                         a*-c-    Anonymous' power base is the ability to
                     exploit online media
                         a*-c-    Anonymous hackers do not have to be in
                     Mexico to lash out at cartels

                     While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to
                     pose a threat
                         a*-c-    It is unknown if Anonymousa**s claims to
                     possess identifiable information on cartel members
                         a*-c-    It is unknown what information Anonymous
                     could acquire on cartels
                         a*-c-    Bank accounts, any online transactions or
                     communications, identifiable information on cartels
                     members have to be considered in the realm of
                     possibilities for
                                 Anonymous
                                 o    Anonymous has demonstrated ita**s
                     ability to reveal illicit online activity (child
                     pornography rings)

                     Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
                     ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
                     result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
                     limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting
                     in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any
                     possible retribution. They may not even know the impact
                     of any online assault of cartels.
                         a*-c-    Revealing information on taxi drivers and
                     journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not
                     understand some of these individuals are forced to
                     collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are
                     often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
                     halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals
                     will not have a significant impact on cartel            
                           operations. Politicans have been accused of
                     working with cartels (Guerrero &amp; Veracruz' governor)
                     before, however there has yet to be any consequences
                     from this.
                         a*-c-    Anonymous hackers may not understand the
                     extent cartels are willing to go protect their
                     operations.
                             o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                             o    Cartels have reached out to the computer
                     science community before, coercing computer science
                     majors into working for them.
                             o    This provides the cartels with the
                     possibility of discovering hackers within Mexico.

                      

                     On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                       Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the
                       idea but there are several issues to address and fix
                       here.

                       These are the bullets of my main analytical concern
                       with the discussion:

                           a*-c-    we don't know who got kidnapped or why.
                       that's fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                           a*-c-    "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a
                       difference between stealing bank records from
                       government computers and overloading www.loszetas.com
                       main page.
                           a*-c-    There's no thought out process of what
                       sort of information could anon have on the cartels.
                       What kind of info is kept online and accessible to
                       potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
                       identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
                       politicians and businessmen who need to worry about
                       what anon is going to be saying. Think about why the
                       bloggers and media were killed in previous instances.
                       Was it because they revealed operational details,
                       because they acted as informants, because they exposed
                       links with officials or because they somehow sullied
                       the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
                       information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                           a*-c-    Once you identify this info - think about
                       if anon can realistically access it and disseminate it
                       so it causes a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have
                       any intelligence capacity except for the technical
                       ability by a very small number of its members to
                       infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
                       information. Now what kind of information would a
                       cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
                       internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
                       information be found? Government databases? Once we
                       know what kind of information is accessible, we can
                       also know more about the consequences of
                       dissemination.
                           a*-c-    What's the IT capacity of a cartel?
                       Sufficient to trace back attacks? If it's not, there
                       risks to be a lot of killings done by people who may
                       not understand the difference between an anon hacker
                       and a blogger.

                       On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                         wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                         -------- Original Message --------

                          Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                             Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                             From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
                         Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                               To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

                         you've got some of the issues here, but this is
                         going to need a lot more work

                         You need to lay out:

                         a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your
                         trigger section is unclear
                         b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence
                         is, and therefore their vulnerabilities and
                         capabilities
                         c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high
                         security anything
                         d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to
                         kill anyone who breaches their systems or exposes
                         their connections

                         I also just want to point out that we have
                         reasonable reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very
                         least has some significant levels of sophistication
                         in their online presence, to include the use of
                         cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
                         is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also
                         conduct business online, in a protected fashion.

                         Karen Hooper
                         Latin America Analyst
                         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                         c: 512.750.7234
                         STRATFOR
                         www.stratfor.com
                         On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                         On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                         --
                         Sean Noonan
                         Tactical Analyst
                         Office: +1 512-279-9479
                         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
                         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
                         www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-25 03:18:15</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1003511_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1004860</id>
    <title>Re: anybody have questions for former Spanish PM Aznar
</title>
    <description>   Uh, how about a party for stratfor in his (or one of his friends')
   mediterranean villa?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Wilson &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Tue, 16 Nov 2010 15:32:32 -0600
   To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: anybody have questions for former Spanish PM Aznar
   can i crash on his couch?

   On 11/16/10 3:26 PM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     can you just tell him "good call on blaming ETA" for me?

     On 11/16/10 3:18 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

       he's teaching our class today

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-16 22:33:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1006351</id>
    <title>Re: Former Spanish PM Azner
</title>
    <description>   At least 20 camps? Pretty impressive. That's more than I've seen in OS,
   where so far all they've been focusing on is the Guasdalito camp where
   Cubillas was allegedly at, but it's quite possible all those former
   etarras are spread out all over the place. I would he's a lot more open
   about heaping criticisms on Chavez since I heard him speak at Trinity back
   in 2004, where he referred to him as "an interesting man." My brother has
   a picture of himself with Aznar at that event. Every time I look at it I
   really do think, it's always his hair that I notice.....

   -----------------
   Reginald Thompson

   Cell: (011) 504 8990-7741

   OSINT
   Stratfor

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, November 16, 2010 5:26:21 PM
   Subject: Former Spanish PM Azner

   Wow, SeA+-or presidente is hardcore.. Way more extreme than even the  
   Israeli officials I've heard speak. He honestly believes that all  
   terrorists are the same and that nothing short of total war can defeat  
   them. He is adamantly against any kind of negotiation with terrorists  
   and criticizes France, Germany and others heavily in this regard. He  
   attributes French and German "weakness" on counterterrorism to their  
   larger Muslim populations. He said OBL's statement on retaking Andaluz  
   is all he heard and the Germans and French just didn't get it. He says  
   poverty has zero connection to terrorism and that developmental aid  
   policies are useless. On ETA, he said the ceasefires are just time  
   buying measures, nothing more. In Catalonia he says the regional govt  
   encourages Muslim immigration from Pakistan, Algeria, etc because they  
   can more easily linguistically integrate them as opposed to Spanish-
   speaking immigrants. This is also where the most radical imams are in  
   the country. He also said ETA has at least 20 camps in Venezuela and  
   ggat farc and eta work with each other in training l, weapons, etc.

   Overall, he's very ideological and hardline. Good reminder of the  
   personal role in poltics (though he also paid for that and is  
   embarassed by his loss)

   Also, great hair.

   Sent from my iPhone
</description>
    <date>2010-11-17 00:35:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
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    </tags>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1006553</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [OS] CHINA/CT/MIL - Chinese army develops drug to
 keep soldiers awake for up to 72 hours - paper
</title>
    <description>   Last time I checked this was called "crack"

   On 10/17/11 8:15 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

    Chinese army develops drug to keep soldiers awake for up to 72 hours -   
    paper                                                                    
                                                                             
    Text of report headlined "PLA eyes 'night eagle' to make army of night   
    owls" published by Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post website  
    on 16 October                                                            
                                                                             
    The People's Liberation Army (PLA) [Chinese army] has opened up a new    
    front in the war against sleep.                                          
                                                                             
    It has developed a drug that can keep its soldiers awake and active for  
    as long as 72 hours, state television reported yesterday. But its        
    scientists didn't disclose its ingredients.                              
                                                                             
    The anti-sleep drug - called Night Eagle - was unveiled as one of 600    
    scientific achievements in an exhibition marking the 60th anniversary of 
    the Academy of Military Medical Sciences. The China Central Television   
    report did not give further details about the new drug, such as any hint 
    of its composition, how it works or its possible side effects.           
                                                                             
    Instead, quoting academy researcher Wang Lin, it said the drug was       
    developed specifically for the military to help soldiers cope with sleep 
    deprivation during missions.                                             
                                                                             
    "Our troops will have to stay awake for a long time while being able to  
    maintain cognitive abilities when they are deployed in search and rescue 
    operations after earthquakes, floods and other disasters and some        
    special military missions," Wang said.                                   
                                                                             
    Analysts said the Night Eagle drug appeared similar to                   
    sleep-suppressants widely used by armed forces of other countries.       
                                                                             
    "Although I have no information about the newly invented drug, it is not 
    at all surprising to see efforts to control sleep and develop anti-sleep 
    technology because of their apparent practical uses in combat            
    situations," said Professor Ni Lexiong, a Shanghai-based military        
    expert.                                                                  
                                                                             
    "Whether our troops can deprive themselves of sleep hours or even days   
    longer than their opponents could make a major difference in combat," Ni 
    said.                                                                    
                                                                             
    Ni believed the PLA would not reveal the drug's composition or           
    associated experimental data, but said it probably worked the same way   
    as other stimulants developed in the West. Any possible side effects of  
    the drug were also unknown.                                              
                                                                             
    One popular military stimulant in the West is modafinil, which was       
    originally developed to treat narcolepsy but is now used by US, French,  
    British and Indian armed forces as an alternative to amphetamines, as    
    well as by students to fight fatigue.                                    
                                                                             
    Modafinil has been a popular lifestyle drug for people who want to       
    chemically turn off sleep with fewer side effects.                       
                                                                             
    Experts also said anti-sleep drugs were becoming more important hi-tech  
    aids and the US military reportedly developed a formulation that kept    
    soldiers awake for seven straight days and nights in the early 2000s.    
                                                                             
    Source: South China Morning Post website, Hong Kong, in English 16 Oct   
    11                                                                       
                                                                             
    BBC Mon AS1 ASDel ma                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4300 ex 4112

 --
 JOSE MORA
 ADP
 STRATFOR
</description>
    <date>2011-10-17 15:24:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1006553_re-eastasia-os-china-ct-mil-chinese-army-develops-drug-to.html</permalink>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1009016</id>
    <title>[alpha] Occupy Wall Street (DHS analysis)
</title>
    <description>3</description>
    <date>2011-10-25 18:04:51</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1009016_-alpha-occupy-wall-street-dhs-analysis-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/13/13637_DHS IP Special.pdf</path><size>797704</size><md5></md5><sha1>cbe7c9e671329c00f0091f1c9e330de5ed455db9</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1009309</id>
    <title>Re: Research Request - Europe/MIL - Fighter Jet Market
</title>
    <description>   Here is my summary of Gripen and its place in Saab.  More information is
   in the attached document.

   Military aeronautics sales account for 9,183 million Swedish Kroners
   (about 1.3 billion dollars), or about 38% of Saab's total business, and
   Gripen fighters are the core of this.  Gripen has sold a total of about 50
   aircraft overseas since it started production in the mid 90's.  The
   company has made a big push for large sales in Brazil and India, and
   without one or both of these contracts coming through it seems unlikely
   that Gripen will continue as a major player past 2012.  The Gripen NG is
   the newest model, and has yet to find a buyer.  The JSF and Eurofighter
   have too much of the market claimed between them, and the natural clients
   for the Gripen fighters, second-tier powers looking to upgrade their air
   capabilities, are mostly facing financial constraints. When Norway and the
   Netherlands chose the JSF in the last year it was a big blow to Gripen. 
   The following Bloomberg article is an excellent summary of their problems:
   http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&amp;tkr=BA:US&amp;sid=a48CogGIxMy0

   Marko Papic wrote:

     Yeah... the "born of jets" is just a tag line ;)

     ----- Original Message -----
     From: "Nate Hughes" &lt;hughes@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
     Cc: "Kristen Cooper" &lt;kristen.cooper@stratfor.com&gt;, "Rami Naser"
     &lt;rami.naser@stratfor.com&gt;, "Matthew Powers"
     &lt;matthew.powers@stratfor.com&gt;, "Antonia Colibasanu"
     &lt;colibasanu@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2009 1:56:43 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada
     Central
     Subject: Re: Research Request - Europe/MIL - Fighter Jet Market

     heh. then we need a first look at Saab the corporate entity. Ignore any
     news about the automotive arm.

     Marko Papic wrote:

       Saab has not owned the car wing since 1990.

       ----- Original Message -----
       From: "Nate Hughes" &lt;hughes@stratfor.com&gt;
       To: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
       Cc: "Kristen Cooper" &lt;kristen.cooper@stratfor.com&gt;, "Rami Naser"
       &lt;rami.naser@stratfor.com&gt;, "Matthew Powers"
       &lt;matthew.powers@stratfor.com&gt;, "Antonia Colibasanu"
       &lt;colibasanu@stratfor.com&gt;
       Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2009 1:45:38 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada
       Central
       Subject: Re: Research Request - Europe/MIL - Fighter Jet Market

       Let's take a closer look at Saab as a corporate entity. Did GM just
       own the Saab car brand/the automotive arm of Saab? Saab's automotive
       troubles are just one element of Saab as an industrial entity, just
       like the Gripen is. Let's map it out and get a sense of the
       overarching corporate status of Saab as an entity.

       Marko Papic wrote:

         Thanks guys... I will hit you up with questions if I have them.

         I am going to do the piece on Gripen then, probably for tmrw.

         ----- Original Message -----
         From: "Kristen Cooper" &lt;kristen.cooper@stratfor.com&gt;
         To: "Nate Hughes" &lt;hughes@stratfor.com&gt;
         Cc: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;, "Rami Naser"
         &lt;rami.naser@stratfor.com&gt;, "Matthew Powers"
         &lt;matthew.powers@stratfor.com&gt;, "Antonia Colibasanu"
         &lt;colibasanu@stratfor.com&gt;
         Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2009 1:09:38 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada
         Central
         Subject: Re: Research Request - Europe/MIL - Fighter Jet Market

         nate and marko - attached and below is the research on the first
         tranche of questions. Much thanks to Antonia, Matthew and Rami for
         helping pull info on this.

         Matthew is currently looking into the specifics of each company as
         requested in the second part of the research and Rami is taking the
         more detailed look into the global fighter jet market.

         hit me up with any questions - kristen

         Contents

         i. Details of proposed price, technology transfer and indigenous
         production

         a. France - Dassault Aviationn SA's (AM.FR)

                     b. US - Boeing Co. (BA) F-18

                     c. Sweden - Saab Gripen NG

         ii. Saab's economic situation

         iii. Gripen sales and tenders

                     a. Gripen NG tenders

                     b. Gripens in service

          

          

          

         Brazil's Embraer is looking to purchase 36 fighter planes under the
         country's proposed FX-2 program.

          

         i. Three Potential Deals:

          

         a. France - Dassault Aviationn SA's (AM.FR)

          

           o Deal for 36 Rafale fighters
           o est. pricing ranges from $82 to $130 million price per unit (not
             including weapons and support)
                o ~$4 to 7 billion for aircraft sales alone - est. $10
                  billion in total sale
           o Sept. 10 - a Brazilian official speaking to AFP on condition of
             anonymity said Sarkozy wrote to da Silva promising "unrestricted
             access to technology" in the Dassault offer - this statement
             prompted issuing of similar statements by both US and Saab
             representatives
           o Sept. 29 - According to statement by Embraer's VP, Rafales deal
             woud be for "flight-ready planes" (limiting local industry
             participation)

          

          

         Rafale Fighter Deal:

           o Sept. 8 - France has struck a landmark outline accord to sell 36
             Rafale fighters for between four and seven billion dollars to
             Brazil, potentially the first foreign customer for the expensive
             jet, officials said.
           o A Dassault spokesman said the company hopes to finalize the sale
             in 2010
           o Throughout its tender process, Brazil has emphasized that full
             technology-sharing took priority over cost.

          

         French-Brazil Strategic Relationship:

           o Lula said that his country wanted closer military ties with
             France. "We are definitively consolidating a strategic
             partnership we started in 2005," Lula said in a joint news
             conference with Sarkozy in Brasilia.
           o The deal adds to 10 billion dollars' worth of agreements Brazil
             has already struck with France to buy five submarines (one to be
             converted to nuclear power) and 50 military transport
             helicopters.
           o Brazil's only aircraft carrier is a mothballed vessel bought
             from France in 2000.
           o France is also to buy about 10 military transport aircraft
             Brazil's air force plans to build with Embraer, the national
             aircraft manufacturer.
           o The military transport planes that Brazil is selling, the
             KC-390, are designed to carry lighter loads than the delayed
             Airbus A400 heavy military transport plane France is committed
             to.

          

          

         French Company:

           o France would back Dassault Aviation's bid for the contract to
             build 36 fighter planes for Brazil's air force, the official
             said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of palace
             rules.
           o The deal would be key for Dassault, which has not yet had a
             foreign buyer for its Rafale.
           o The Rafale is one of three planes in competition for the
             Brazilian contract, along with Chicago-based Boeing's F-18 Super
             Hornet and Saab's Gripen NG.
           o French daily Le Monde, which participated in the interview,
             quoted the Brazilian leader as suggesting the French bid had a
             "comparative advantage" over those of its rivals.

          

         Brazil's Request:

           o Brazil's air force has not given a price tag for the 36 jets,
             which it hopes to have delivered by 2014. The total number of
             jets ordered could also increase up to 100.
           o Agencia Estado news service said it could be between $2.2
             billion and $2.5billion.

          

          

         b. US - Boeing Co. (BA) F-18

           o Aug. 10 - Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) notifies
             Congress of potential sale to Government of Brazil including:

         .        28  F/A-18E Super Hornet Aircraft

         .        8    F/A-18F Super Hornet Aircraft

         .        72  F414-GE-400 installed engines

         .        host of spare parts and munitions

          

         Estimated value of total sale = $7 billion

         ~ $90 million per unit for the F/A-18s

          

           o Sept. 9 - US Embassy in Brazil issues statement:

          

              o US govt. has issued a final approval on transfer of "all
                necessary and advanced technologies associated with the U.S.
                Government's offer of the F/A-18 Super Hornet"

          

              o "Boeing's multi-billion dollar offset package to be invested
                directly into the Brazilian aerospace industry will transfer
                technology related to military design and production, provide
                autonomy in key areas of program support, and develop a broad
                Brazilian aerospace industry beyond just fighter aircraft,
                through direct involvement with the world's largest aerospace
                company."

          

         *Note: the US government's notification to Congress of a possible
         sale to Brazil of F-18s states that "offsets agreements associated
         with this proposed sale are expected," it does not mention either
         advanced technology transfer or local assembly, as claimed in the
         statement made by the US Embassy in Brazil.

          

          

          

         c. Sweden - Saab Gripen NG

          

           o Tender for 36 Gripen NGs

         ~ $60 million per unit

          

           o Sept. 29 - According to a statement from Embraer's VP, Saab is
             offering a "pre-production deal giving Brazil opportunity to
             develop from scratch-knowledge of the plane" - and that the NGs
             would have "important locally produced components" - and the
             development of the jet would bring "important technological
             benefits"

          

          

         From Saab's NG tender proposal to Brazil -

          

          - Transfer of Technology

         The Transfer of Technology (ToT) programme will guarantee full
         involvement in future capability development and maximize Brazilian
         industrial autonomy through the transfer of unique and highly
         advanced competencies.

         The ToT will include:

           o Design, development and integration of hardware, avionics,
             software and systems on the Gripen NG
           o Transfer of Advanced Technologies and key High-Tech competencies
             for example Sensor Fusion, Low-Observability (LO) and Stealth.

         Saab guarantees unrivalled access to all levels of technology,
         including full access to Gripen NG source codes.

          - Offset

         The proposal will deliver Offset equal to the contract value. The
         Offset programme will transfer unique and advanced technologies and
         know-how to appropriate Brazilian industrial and institutional
         parties with the objective of developing national capabilities.

         - Support solution

         The logistics concept is designed to meet the requirements of
         the Brazilian Air Force and makes maximum usage of existing
         Brazilian infrastructure.

         The training programme utilizes the existing infra-structure
         together with synthetic training aids and the Gripen system in order
         to maximize the training benefit.

         - Partnership

         COMAER and Brazilian industry would become partners with the Swedish
         Air Force and Saab in the design, development and integration of
         future technology programmes for the Gripen NG.

         Early Brazilian involvement in the Gripen NG design and development
         will give the Brazilian Air Force and industry unrivalled access to
         all levels of technology now and for the future.

         *Note: According to a recent interview with Jane's analyst, Craig
         Cafferty -

         "While Saab could offer good industrial participation and
         technology, "some of the key components included in the Gripen NG
         such as the engine and AESA radar are not made by Saab or a Swedish
         company thereby making full technology transfer impossible."

         The Gripen's engine is made by US company General Electric, and
         therefore subject to US export controls, while the advanced
         active-array, multi-targeting radar is made by Italian firm Selex."

          

          

          

         ii. Saab's economic situation

          

         1.      Saab - Gripen history (not nec related, but just in case you
         need it) - see here:
         http://www.gripen.com/en/GripenFighter/TheGripenFighter.htm

         2.      Saab problems starting in 2008: GM decided to sell Saab this
         year due to financial problems. They are still in talks and there is
         certain that there is pressure on the future of Saab... with all
         that it can mean for its financial stability. The Swedish government
         has announced (Jan. 2009) plans to provide up to $3.19 billion in
         credit guarantees and emergency loans to Saab and Volvo, which Ford
         Motor Co. put up for sale last month in a bid to raise additional
         funds. (http://www.thelocal.se/16808/20090109/) That's all I could
         find on the guarantees part.

         Last details on the deal:

           o The buy-out of Saab Automobile by the Koenigsegg Group hangs in
             the balance after co-owner Baard Eker states the company could
             withdraw if business is not concluded in the next few days.
             According to an article in business daily Dagens Industri the
             deal is at risk of caving in. "If things aren't in place by
             September 30, then we are out," Eker told Norwegian newspaper
             Dagens Naeringsliv. They include negotiations with the European
             Investment Bank (EIB) over a loan of around four billion Swedish
             crowns as well as discussions with Sweden's National Debt Office
             (Riksga:lden) to secure the EIB loan. Saab intend to use the
             money to develop new technology in the areas of environment and
             security. - http://www.thelocal.se/22312/20090926/
           o GM has agreed to put money in to assure it gets rid of Saab -
             http://www.thelocal.se/22098/20090915/
           o In August GM talked about the sale to Koenigsegg Group. But the
             problem is that Koenigsegg must prepare for 4 billion kronor or
             500 million dollars to take over. The report says that Beijing
             Automotive Industry Holdings, BAIC has written a letter of
             memorandum with Koenigsegg to become a small owner with capital.
              http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90776/90884/6755109.html

          

         Figures:

         With the collapse of the auto market, it has become a particularly
         weak division, selling less than 94,000 cars in 2008, down from a
         peak of 133,000 in 2006.
         http://gm-volt.com/2009/02/20/saab-becomes-independent-from-gm-and-declares-bankruptcy/

         Under GM's stewardship, Saab rarely posted a profit and last year
         lost 3.0 billion kronor ($496.9 million at the time).

         Saab's financial woes eased a bit Jan. 17 when a Swedish court
         approved an application to write down 75 percent of the automaker's
         debts -- previously some 10 billion kronor.
         http://www.asiaone.com/Motoring/News/Story/A1Story20090618-149231.html

          

         Nice talk on how sweet Saab is if it gets the deal:

         "The Swedish government and the Saab motor company are 100 percent
         committed to making the technology transfer," Swedish State
         Secretary for Defense Haakan Jevrell said at a press conference,
         accompanied by a Saab representative.
         (http://www.thelocal.se/22150/20090918/)

          

          

         iii. Gripen NG Sales

          

         a. It appears that no nation has purchased the Gripen NG model since
         Saab began trying to make sales in 2008.

         :

         As of early 2009, Saab claims to have Gripen tenders for:

         - Denmark

         - India

         - Romania

         - Brazil

         - Switzerland

          

         In addition, Saab has responded to requests for information from
         Bulgaria, Croatia, and the Netherlands.

          

          

         The Gripen NG was being considered by the Netherlands and Norway,
         but these nations have elected to go with the JSF.

          

         Denmark is still considering an offer for the Gripen NG.

          

         Gripen NG's are being considered for a huge purchase by the Indian
         airforce (100+ aircraft), but no decision is likely for some time.

          

         Brazil is the only other country that is currently considering the
         NG.

         a. Gripens currently in service:

          

         Gripen is in service with the Swedish, Czech Republic, Hungarian and
         South African Air Forces and has also been ordered by Thailand. The
         UK Empire Test Pilots' School (ETPS) is also operating Gripen as its
         advanced fast jet platform for test pilots worldwide.

           o Gripen was declared operational in the Swedish Air Force in
             1997, and 204 aircraft, including 28 two seaters, have been
             delivered.

          

           o Gripen is in full operational service with the Czech Republic
             Air Force, which has taken delivery of all of its 14 aircraft
             (12 single-seat and 2 two-seaters) to meet its national,
             European and NATO defence needs.

          

           o Gripen is also in full operational service with the Hungarian
             Air Force, which has taken delivery of all of its 14 aircraft
             (12 single-seat and 2 two-seaters) to meet its national,
             European and NATO needs.

          

           o South Africa, Gripen's first export customer, has ordered a
             fleet of 26 aircraft (9 two-seat and 17 single seat aircraft) to
             replace its existing front-line aircraft. Deliveries started in
             2008 and will be completed by 2012.

          

           o The United Kingdom's (UK) Empire Test Pilots' School (ETPS) is
             also operating Gripen as its advanced fast jet platform for test
             pilots worldwide.

          

           o In October 2007, the government of Thailand approved the
             procurement of Gripen fighters to replace the Royal Thai Air
             Force's ageing F-5 fleet, and in February 2008 Thailand and
             Sweden signed contracts for the supply of the initial six Gripen
             aircraft for the Royal Thai Air Force (RTAF) with aircraft
             delivered during 2011.

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

                                    Sources:

                              Gripen NG for Brazil

         Gripen offers Brazil a complete solution. Gripen NG is the world's
         most technologically advanced multi-role fighter aircraft with built
         in Net centric warfare (NCW) technologies and capabilities developed
         specifically for Brazil.

          

         The Gripen NG for Brazil in short:

           o A powerful and proven engine
           o AESA radar
           o Advanced Communication systems
           o Tactical Data Link
           o Supercruise
           o Advanced Electronic warfare
           o Strategic reach
           o Advanced Weapons Capacity

Why Brazil should choose Gripen

           o Gripen NG is the world's most technologically advanced
             multi-role fighter aircraft with built in Net centric warfare
             (NCW) technologies and capabilities developed specifically for
             Brazil.
           o Gripen will meet or exceed every operational requirement raised
             by the Brazilian Air Force in all roles - Air to Air Fighter
             BVR/WVR, Air to Surface land and sea, and recce.
           o Gripen will provide exceptional autonomous multi and swing role
             capability in normal and hostile FOB operations, and act as a
             perfect force multiplier.
           o Gripen will, over life, have a substantially lower real Life
             Cycle Cost than its nearest single engined competitor, and is
             able to operate at a fraction of the cost of its twin engined
             competitors.
           o Gripen NG is the only option for Brazil delivering next
             generation technical and military capabilities.
           o Gripen NG will allow Brazil to become a significant partner in
             the development programme and become a platform for future
             technology programmes.
           o In combination with the Industrial Cooperation program, Gripen's
             program for FAB, Brazilian Defence and industrial establishment
             will make Brazil by 2020 completely independent of the need to
             purchase combat aircraft from other countries and make it an
             exporter of aircraft like Sweden.

          

Operational capability

         As a Next Generation multi-role fighter Gripen NG has the
         operational range, payload and built-in Net Centric Warfare (NCW)
         capability to meet all the roles as defined by the Brazilian Air
         Force; both national and regional expeditionary. Brazil's NCW
         capability will be significantly enhanced by operating the Gripen NG
         in combination with the Embraer E-99 ERIEYE system.

Advanced Weapons System

         Gripen NG has a fully integrated sensor suite with total weapon
         flexibility and is able to carry weapons sourced from suppliers
         worldwide. Survivability is assured through a balance between low
         radar, Infra-Red and visible signatures and a highly advanced
         modular Electronic Warfare and Self-Protection system.

Support solution

         The logistics concept is designed to meet the requirements of
         the Brazilian Air Force and makes maximum usage of existing
         Brazilian infrastructure.

         The training programme utilizes the existing infra-structure
         together with synthetic training aids and the Gripen system in order
         to maximize the training benefit.

Partnership

         COMAER and Brazilian industry would become partners with the Swedish
         Air Force and Saab in the design, development and integration of
         future technology programmes for the Gripen NG.

         Early Brazilian involvement in the Gripen NG design and development
         will give the Brazilian Air Force and industry unrivalled access to
         all levels of technology now and for the future.

Offset

         The proposal will deliver Offset equal to the contract value. The
         Offset programme will transfer unique and advanced technologies and
         know-how to appropriate Brazilian industrial and institutional
         parties with the objective of developing national capabilities.

Production and Maintenance

         The commitment to Brazilian aerospace includes the option for
         manufacturing of Gripen NG parts and assemblies and Gripen NG Final
         assembly in Brazil.

         The maintenance concept is tailored to meet the requirements and
         capabilities of the Brazilian Industry and the FAB through:

           o Establishment of a Gripen NG maintenance centre in
             Brazil ensuring national autonomy
           o Extensive usage of existing Brazilian infra-structure securing
             cost savings and ensuring commonality

Transfer of Technology

         The Transfer of Technology (ToT) programme will guarantee full
         involvement in future capability development and maximize Brazilian
         industrial autonomy through the transfer of unique and highly
         advanced competencies.

         The ToT will include:

           o Design, development and integration of hardware, avionics,
             software and systems on the Gripen NG
           o Transfer of Advanced Technologies and key High-Tech competencies
             for example Sensor Fusion, Low-Observability (LO) and Stealth.

         Saab guarantees unrivalled access to all levels of technology,
         including full access to Gripen NG source codes.

Continued Enhancement

         Gripen Next Generation (NG) is a considerably enhanced version of
         the already proven and in-service Gripen C/D multi-role fighter.

         Designed for combat in the 21st Century Net Centric Warfare (NCW)
         environment Gripen's flexible and modular design makes continuous
         development and enhancement both low risk and cost effective. The
         Gripen NG programme covers development of all major sensors and
         avionics including data communication, self-protection systems,
         weapons integration, as well as airframe and propulsion
         enhancements.

Continued Growth

         Gripen NG is a 'low risk' platform with a funded ongoing development
         programme and guaranteed enhancements. The Gripen NG has substantial
         growth capability which will ensure that Gripen NG meets all future
         requirements.

          

          

          

         US Deal

          

          

          

         Brazil - F/A-18E/F Super Hornet Aircraft  
         (Source: US Defense Security Cooperation Agency; dated Aug. 6,
         web-posted Aug. 10, 2009)
          
           WASHINGTON --- Today the Defense Security Cooperation Agency
         (DSCA) notified Congress of a possible Foreign Military Sale to the
         Government of Brazil of 28 F/A-18E Super Hornet Aircraft, eight
         F/A-18F Super Hornet Aircraft, 72 F414-GE-400 installed engines, a
         host of spare parts and munitions at an estimated value of $7.0
         billion.

         The Government of Brazil has requested proposals from several
         foreign suppliers, including the United States, to provide the next
         generation fighter for the Brazilian Air Force. In this "FX-2"
         competition, the Government of Brazil has yet to select the United
         States Navy-Boeing proposal.

         This notification is being made in advance of receipt of a letter of
         request so that, in the event that the US Navy-Boeing proposal is
         selected, the United States might move as quickly as possible to
         implement the sale.

         If the Government of Brazil selects the U.S. Navy-Boeing proposal,
         the Government of Brazil will request a possible sale of:

         -- 28 F/A-18E Super Hornet Aircraft,
         -- eight F/A-18F Super Hornet Aircraft,
         -- 72 F414-GE-400 installed engines,
         -- four F414-GE-400 spare engines,
         -- 36 AN/APG-79 Radar Systems,
         -- 36 M61A2 20mm Gun Systems,
         -- 36 AN/ALR-67(V) three Radar Warning Receivers,
         -- 144 LAU-127 Launchers,
         -- 44 Joint Helmet Mounted Cueing Systems (JHMCS),
         -- 28 AIM-120C-7 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM),
         -- 28 AIM-9M Sidewinder Missiles,
         -- 60 GBU-31/32 Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM),
         -- 36 AGM-154 Joint Standoff Weapons (JSOW),
         -- 10 AGM-88B HARM Missiles, and
         -- 36 AN/ASQ-228 (V2) Advanced Targeting Forward-Looking Infrared
         (ATFLIR) Pods.

         Also included are 36 AN/ALQ-214 Radio Frequency Countermeasures. 40
         AN/ALE-47 Electronic Warfare Countermeasures Systems, 112 AN/ALE-50
         Towed Decoys, Joint Mission Planning System, support equipment,
         spare and repair parts, personnel training and training equipment,
         ferry and tanker support, flight test, software support,
         publications and technical documents, U.S. Government and contractor
         engineering, technical and logistics support services, and other
         related elements of logistics and program support.

         This proposed sale will contribute to the foreign policy and
         national security of the United States by helping to improve the
         security of a friendly country that has been, and continues to be,
         an important force for political stability and economic progress in
         South America.

         Brazil needs these aircraft to meet current and future threats. The
         proposed sale of F/A-18E/F aircraft will enhance Brazil's tactical
         aviation capabilities. An increase in capability will be accrued
         primarily due to the larger number of aircraft and the larger range
         and endurance of the F/A-18E/F. Brazil will have no difficulty
         absorbing these aircraft into its aircraft inventory. The proposed
         sale of this equipment and support will not alter the basic military
         balance in the region.

         The principal contractors will be:
         --The Boeing Company St. Louis, Mo.
         --General Electric Aircraft Engines Lynn, Mass.
         --Northrop Grumman Corporation El Segundo, Calif.
         --Raytheon Corporation El Segundo, Calif.
         --Lockheed Martin Bethesda, Md.

         Offsets agreements associated with this proposed sale are expected;
         however, specific agreements are undetermined and will be defined
         during negotiations between the purchaser and contractor.

         Implementation of this sale will require approximately eight
         contractor representatives to provide technical and logistics
         support in Brazil for two years. U.S. Government and contractor
         representatives will also participate in program management and
         technical reviews for one-week intervals twice semi-annually.

         There will be no adverse impact on U.S. defense readiness as a
         result of this proposed sale.

         This notice of a potential sale is required by law and does not mean
         the sale has been concluded.

         -ends-

         Nate Hughes wrote:

           Rami can take the lead on this, but we've got a few things on his
           plate today and Marko was hoping to get this rolling ASAP. The
           priority is the first tranche of questions for the initial Gripen
           piece.

           First, for the Gripen piece:
             * A clear understanding of the three offerings before Brazil:
                  * What has each offered specifically in terms of price,
                    tech transfer and indigenous assembly/production (not all
                    may be available, but we need to know what's out there --
                    particularly the price drop of the Gripen and price point
                    of the Rafale)
             * Just how dire/desperate is Saab? Are they trying to secure the
               deal in order to secure the deal? Or are they in more dire
               straits than that?
             * Any other takers for the NG? Even follow-on orders or for
               upgrades?
             * What has Saab managed to sell of the Gripen NGs thus far?
           Overall:
             * A careful look at each company in turn. Obviously we're
               starting with Saab. Dassault next, since I think the Rafale
               may be in worse shape than the Gripen. Eurofighter is the most
               coherent of the three at this point, I believe. For each:
                  * brief history of genesis of the program, and the business
                    case for it -- how many was each intending to sell to the
                    primary customer and how many were intended to be sold
                    abroad?
                  * In particular, what was the scheme and why did it fail?
                    For example, the Gripen was specifically designed as a
                    low cost, and low-life cycle-cost alternative to the
                    other designs on the market. Supposed to be a solid
                    plane. Certainly not competing directly with the Joint
                    Strike Fighter. What gives?
                  * Let's get a key sense of exactly where each fighter was
                    supposed to be sold... country by country. Marko can then
                    quickly lay out the macroeconomics of why country X or Y
                    could no longer afford this or that fighter.
                  * Key export agreements/failures to secure them. Timeline
                    for each. (I want to be careful about correlation of the
                    Iraq war with the sales of the Gripen. Even if they
                    correlate, that doesn't mean causation necessarily. Let's
                    get dates but also look at the production schedule for
                    the Gripen)
             * Might be good to get a bit of a sense of the evolution of the
               global fighter jet market as a whole, so we can fit European
               efforts in with American and Russian efforts.
             * Can we get a sense of all NEW Jet Fighter orders from 2000
               onwards? I am making 2000 up as arbitrary number... but it
               would be good to get a really detailed excel worksheet going
               with ALL fighter jet sales. Let's concentrate first on NEW
               fighters, not repurchased, since that will make things easier
               and we can decide if we need repurchased later. There has to
               be a study out there on this.
             * Let's see if we can't dig up some analysis of this situation.
               We're not the first to contemplate this. What are industry
               rags and European circles saying about it?
           --
           Nathan Hughes
           Director of Military Analysis
           STRATFOR
           512.744.4300 ext. 4097
           nathan.hughes@stratfor.com

 --
 Kristen Cooper
 Researcher
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com
 512.744.4093 - office
 512.619.9414 - cell
 kristen.cooper@stratfor.com

 --
 Matthew Powers
 STRATFOR Intern
 Matthew.Powers@stratfor.com

 --
 Matthew Powers
 STRATFOR Intern
 Matthew.Powers@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-09-30 21:39:12</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1009309_re-research-request-europe-mil-fighter-jet-market-.html</permalink>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1009942</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat
</title>
    <description>   In the more long-term, I think an analysis of the German intelligence
   agencies would be good too. They have been pretty decimated by the Cold
   War and by all the problems associated with running an intelligence agency
   in a post-Gestapo country. If Germany is ever going to become a world
   power again, however, they would need to overcome these deamons as well.
   That is sort of the last straw for Germany, the one that is going to be
   most sensitive to overcome. But perhaps this case may illustrate how they
   are already overcoming these issues.

   On 11/22/10 10:50 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     Main problem is that Der Spiegel is just that good, they've at least
     touched on most of what I would want to say about it.  The main thing
     here is how the politics of a terror threat/alert coincide with the
     reality of the threat itself. 

     We saw that Germany was fairly relaxed bout the earlier threat in Europe
     released by the US.  I'm not sure if that was the same as the info that
     the FBI passed over about this shia group, Saif (I don't know anything
     about them).  But something changed, as we noted last week in their
     interpretation.  That seems to go down to this virtual walk-in.  The one
     thing I was left confused about is whether BKA had ever been in contact
     with this source before.  It sounds like he cold called them.  It's
     common knowledge that walk-ins, rather than recruits, are nearly always
     the best sources.  But at the same time, they are very suspicious as
     double agents.  If this was a US source they would be freaking the fuck
     out after having Al-Balawi turn on them.  The germans seem to have
     cooler heads, but they will be working 24/7 to verify the source (let me
     make another plug for John Lecarre's A Most Wanted Man here, most of his
     career was in Germany). 

     They've clearly got enough corroborating information that they consider
     this a real threat.  But politically they are faced with the universal
     'damned if you do, damned if you don't' alert problem.  If the Interior
     ministry doesn't say something, they will be liable if an attack
     occurs.  Look at the constant press over information on the warning
     intelligence for Mumbai.  As we've said before, simply issuing the
     warning may help to deter the attackers. 

     The real important bit here, is that it seems the germans have fairly
     good intelligence.  While this attack is still not happening tomorrow,
     they have a lot of details about what might be in the works, rather than
     a single-source intercept that indicates some vague threat.  It seems
     they've increased security pretty well at the Bundestag, and want to add
     to the presence at any possible target.  This is where we seem them
     scrambling, and where their intelligence holes are. 

     The task now for the germans is to verify this source.  Maybe even pick
     him up and put him on ice somewhere (Fred/Stick?), not in GErmany but in
     Pakistan/Afghanistan.  That will require some cooperation with
     either/both the Americans and Pakistanis.  They also need to verify all
     the bio information they have on these 4-6 guys trying to get into
     germany and watch travelers very carefully.  The germans seem to be very
     good at surveilling these threats within Germany, so their best luck may
     come when one of the guys overseas contacts a local already under
     surveillance. 

     At minimum, this could be a pretty interesting tearline this week.  Both
     the walk-in issues and the CIA/FBI liaison conflicts that I havne't
     gotten into here. 
     On 11/22/10 10:34 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

       Any thoughts on where you guys are thinking of going with this?

       Der Spiegel article is indeed interesting.

       On 11/22/10 9:28 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         Great report from Der Spiegel (thanks Mikey).  I suggest anyone
         interested to read the whole thing.  They ask the right questions,
         and while not as much detail as I hoped, give us a much better
         understanding on the threat in Germany. 

         The BKA (germany's FBI) must be extremely busy verifying the details
         of this virtual walk-in.  It obviously caused the germans to shit
         their pants.  But the real questions are buried in the article---how
         real was this plot, how real is the source, is the source just
         trying to get back to the land of brezeln and bier? Trying to
         double-cross them somehow?

         Also note the tip off from the FBI (cue fred), not the usual CIA
         liaison with BND. 

         For Eurasia, there's a lot in here on the internal politics of the
         interior minister position, and the relation between state and
         federal government. 

         On 11/22/10 8:55 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

           -------- Original Message --------

            Subject: [OS] GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat 
               Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 08:38:21 -0600                          
               From: Graham Smith &lt;graham.smith@stratfor.com&gt;                 
           Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                            
                 To: os@stratfor.com                                          

            11/22/2010 11:38 AM
           Fears of a Mumbai Redux
           The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat

           http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,730377,00.html
           By Matthias Bartsch, Yassin Musharbash and Holger Stark

           Germany is currently in a state of high alert. Security officials
           are warning that they have concrete information pointing to a
           possible terror attack on the federal parliament building in
           Berlin, a massively popular tourist attraction. The days of
           Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere's reserved stances in dealing
           with such warnings appear to be over.

           The call came from abroad, and the man speaking hurriedly on the
           other end of the line sounded as if he feared for his life. He
           wanted out, he told the officers of the German Federal Criminal
           Police Office (BKA) -- out of the terrorist scene. He wanted to
           come back to Germany, back to his family. Then he asked if German
           officials could help him.

           Right now, they're trying to do just that. The BKA is pursuing the
           case under the codename "Nova." The apparently remorseful man
           could be an important possible whistleblower from a dangerous
           region of the globe. In fact, he is also the most recent reason
           why German Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere put the entire
           country in a state of fright on Wednesday.

           During a hastily called press conference that day, de Maiziere
           stated that Germany faced the threat of terrorist attacks that
           might be launched against the country at some point in November.
           As he put it, Germany is "presently dealing with a new situation."
           Just two days earlier, the source had called for the third time in
           just a short period and provided more information. He told
           officials that a small group of terrorists wanted to conduct a
           raid on the Reichstag building in Berlin, which houses the federal
           parliament, and that that was only one of the targets included in
           their attack plans.

           Germany on High Alert

           Since then, Germany has been in a state of high alert. The
           Reichstag is surrounded with barricades and its popular cupola
           tourist attraction temporarily closed to visitors. Police armed
           with submachine guns are patrolling major railway stations and
           airports. And vacations have been called off for officials at the
           country's security agencies. Wherever they have cause for doing
           so, the authorities are secretly monitoring communications,
           conducting surveillance operations and launching undercover
           investigations. At the moment, investigators seem to be at a loss;
           their modus operandi: "We'll prod the shrubs and see if we can
           flush out any birds."

           "There is cause for worry, but no cause for hysteria," de Maiziere
           assured his listeners. But while he has never been much of an
           agitator, his colleagues at the state level have described the
           situation in much more drastic terms. Uwe Schu:nemann, for
           example, who has been the interior minister of the northwestern
           state of Lower Saxony since 2003, stated that he had "never
           experienced a heightened security situation like this one." And
           Berlin Senator for the Interior Ehrhart Ko:rting, whose position
           is tantamount to that of a government minister in the city-state,
           has already even gone so far as to call on the inhabitants of the
           German capital city to report suspicious-looking individuals of
           Arab origin to the police. "If you suddenly see three somewhat
           strange-looking men who are new to your neighborhood, who hide
           their faces and who only speak Arabic," Ko:rting said, "you should
           report them to the authorities."

           Under heightened pressure, officials in Germany's 16 federal
           states are now checking to see when and where major events are
           scheduled to take place this coming week within their boundaries.
           And nothing suggested as a possible target is being discounted, no
           matter how unlikely. For example, officials in
           Rhineland-Palatinate warned the state's interior minister, Karl
           Peter Burch, that there was always a lot going on at IKEA stores
           on Saturdays.[WTF]

           Serenity, Scaremongering and Strategy

           Since last week, German politicians at both the state and federal
           levels have once again had to figure out how they will handle
           themselves when making warnings about terrorist attacks. They have
           had to come up with a language that can simultaneously convey both
           an alert and a sense of calm.

           This is no easy task. For one thing, this isn't the first time
           this has happened. In September 2009, for example, right before
           federal elections were held, there were concrete threats that
           resulted in a heightened security situation. But, in the end,
           nothing happened. This time around, people are wondering whether
           they are on the precipice of an emergency or whether these are
           once again empty threats.

           Still, one thing is certain: For the time being, Germany has
           become a different country -- more nervous, more anxious, more
           agitated. And Germany's domestic security policies are being put
           to the test.

           When Interior Minister de Maiziere assumed his office in October
           2009 in conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel's government, he
           aimed to cool down the heated sense of alarm regularly fanned out
           by his predecessors. What's more, the man who had served as
           Merkel's chief of staff in Chancellery until being moved to the
           role of interior minister in her new government, was given the
           task of nurturing a more relaxed relationship between her party,
           the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and its new coalition
           partner, the business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP). In
           particular, it was his job to not draw out the long-standing
           conflict over domestic security policies with the Justice
           Ministry, which has been led since the 2009 election by Sabine
           Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, a member of the FDP. Indeed, Merkel
           feared that the quarrelsome FDP might try to capitalize on the
           issue to win over more voters, so she assigned de Maiziere to
           prevent that from happening.

           In fact, the plan was to repeat the same strategy that the CDU and
           its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), had
           used when they were in the so-called "grand coalition" with the
           center-left Social Democratic Party, between 2005 and 2009. At the
           time, they made a point of undermining the SPD by championing what
           had traditionally been the latter party's issues.

           A Game-Changer

           But now the game plan has changed. This November will drastically
           alter de Maiziere's understanding of his role in office. If he
           tries to return things to their previous state of calm, he's going
           to have a very tough time. In fact, it's much more likely that he
           will be a completely different interior minister.

           For a while now, de Maiziere's softer stance has prompted
           opposition by politicians on the right involved with domestic
           security issues. But they are now calling louder than ever for a
           tougher course to be followed. Merkel is also adjusting to the new
           situation and is reportedly happy with the way de Maiziere handled
           himself last week. Likewise, no one seems to have voiced any
           criticism last Thursday evening during a meeting of the Coalition
           Committee, a regular gathering of the parties that are part of the
           government.

           The almost complete lack of protest has a lot to do with where the
           alarming information is coming from. In fact, information
           regarding the supposedly imminent attacks has come from two
           independent sources. Shortly before receiving the telephone call
           about the planned attacks, BKA officials had received a cable from
           their American counterparts at the FBI, America's federal police
           force, warning of possible attacks.

           Still, what truth is there in these "security-related" pieces of
           information coming from both domestic and foreign sources? And,
           given all the discrepancies in the warning messages, just how much
           do they deserve to be trusted? Indeed, even among security
           officials themselves, there is some doubt about how legitimate
           these statements are -- and about just how acute the danger
           threatening Germany really is.

           An Attack Modelled after Mumbai[plot details in this section]
           What the caller reported was undeniably alarming. According to
           him, al-Qaida and associated groups based in Pakistan were making
           joint preparations for an attack in Germany. One idea was to
           remotely detonate a bomb using a mobile phone. Another called for
           a small group of terrorists to storm the Reichstag with guns
           blazing, take hostages and end everything in one calamitous
           bloodbath. Indeed, BKA officials learned that the latter plan had
           been modeled on the storming of luxury hotels in Mumbai, the
           Indian capital, almost exactly two years ago, in a massacre that
           left 175 people dead.

           According to the caller, the plan called for the terrorists to
           procure the submachine guns, automatic rifles, explosives and
           whatever else they would need to storm Germany's parliament
           building in the Balkans. He said that two men had already traveled
           to Germany six to eight weeks earlier, adding that one had the nom
           de guerre of "Abu Mohammed" and that the other one was a German of
           Turkish origin. Both apparently had roots in the Greater Berlin
           metropolitan area, were currently unemployed and living off of
           welfare payments and had immersed themselves in the anonymity
           provided by a major city -- until the time should come for their
           activation.

           Likewise, there were allegedly four other volunteers -- including
           a German, a Turk, a North African and another jihadist of unknown
           identity -- in the training camps run by al-Qaida and related
           groups waiting for the signal to travel to Germany. And, according
           to the telephone source, al-Qaida's plan was to attack in February
           or March.
           The only question now relates to just how credible the caller's
           statements are. He is an insider who joined up with armed groups
           several months ago and has earned a reputation as a fanatic
           fighter.
           But could it be that he is only trying to tell German officials
           the juiciest things possible in order to raise his own market
           value and thereby prompt them to extract him from the terror
           scene? Or could it be that al-Qaida is even planning a second
           spectacular coup like the one in December 2009, when the Americans
           allowed a supposedly top-level turncoat onto an American military
           base without any sort of pat-down, who went on to detonate his
           explosive vest and blow seven CIA officials to bits?

           A Strange Message

           A clear picture has yet to emerge. And one reason for this is also
           the fact that it was only two weeks ago that the FBI first decided
           to share information about another possible attack with German
           officials.

           In this case, even the way contact was made was unusual. Under
           normal circumstances, liaisons from the CIA station in Germany are
           the ones to communicate American warnings to their German
           counterparts. But, this time around, it was an apparently
           particularly anxious FBI that chose to directly notify the BKA.
           The FBI told the Germans about an obscure Indian group called
           "Saif," or "sword." Despite being a Shiite group, it had allegedly
           made a pact with al-Qaida, a Sunni organization, and sent five of
           its men to the Pakistani province of Waziristan for training.
           According to the FBI, two volunteers -- who were already equipped
           with visas allowing them to travel freely within the 25 European
           countries belonging to the Schengen zone -- were supposedly
           already en route to Germany and would enter the United Arab
           Emirates on Monday, Nov. 22. There, they would allegedly be
           provided with new travel documents before traveling on to Germany.
           One of the men is supposedly named "Khan," which is about as
           common in that part of the world as "Smith" is in English-speaking
           countries. And no firm conclusion had been made about their
           nationalities.

           The FBI agents even named the presumed masterminds behind the
           operation. A certain Mushtaq Altaf Bin-Khadri, who is in charge of
           finances and training for "Saif," allegedly dispatched the
           terrorist squad. But the FBI was not in a position to comment on
           the targets of the two men in Germany.

           One name came up time and again in the communique, and one that
           pricked the Germans' ears: Dawood Ibrahim. The 54-year-old arms
           trader is "India's most-wanted man." The US government has listed
           him as a "global terrorist" and persuaded the United Nations to
           place his name on a list of supporters of terror. Ibrahim is
           rumored to be the head of D-Company, a criminal syndicate named
           after himself, and is believed to be in charge of smuggling the
           suspected terrorists into Germany.

           Both the FBI and the BKA are attaching a lot of importance to the
           information in the FBI communique. But the intelligence services
           of the two countries -- the CIA in the United States and the BND
           and Office for the Protection of the Constitution in Germany, the
           country's foreign and domestic intelligence agencies, respectively
           -- point to internal contradictions as reasons for their
           skepticism. As they see it, for example, it is highly unlikely
           that a Shiite group would team up with Sunni terrorists,
           especially since a good part of al-Qaida propaganda vilifies
           Shiites. Other reasons for doubt include the facts that none of
           the intelligence agencies was previously familiar with an
           organization called "Saif," that there have been no previously
           recorded threats against Germany by Indian extremists, and that
           the whole scenario seems rather implausible.

           On the other hand, the FBI information is uncommonly concrete. In
           addition to the names of the suspects, it also provides
           information about the exact day on which they are supposed to
           arrive in the United Arab Emirates. Moreover, Ibrahim is believed
           to be one of the men behind the terror attacks in Mumbai. If he
           really is involved, that alone would be reason enough for worry.

           Abnormal Circumstances

           Under normal circumstances, a message of this kind from the United
           States would no doubt be cause for serious-minded scrutiny, but it
           would not be a cause for alarm. For example, the BKA would go
           through all recent visa applications, and federal police officers
           would take a closer look at all the people entering Germany from
           Arab states. And the intelligence services would make the rounds
           to see if any of its partners had any helpful information on the
           matter.

           Indeed, under normal circumstances, there are always a lot of
           these communiques, most of which turn out to be false alarms. But
           these are no normal circumstances. Germany is in a state of
           emergency. Other countries, such as the United States, employ a
           system of official warning levels based on color codes that change
           -- from yellow to orange, for example -- when the danger level is
           thought to increase. But, in Germany, the interior minister is the
           barometer: He consults with experts -- and then it is he who must
           call the shots.

           For the minister, a situation like this presents a dilemma. If he
           remains silent and something happens, he's a failure. If he makes
           loud warning and nothing happens, he's just a rabble-rouser trying
           to push through controversial tougher security laws. And, of
           course, the public never thanks you if everyday life continues in
           a normal, peaceful way.

           Absolute Security Remains a Pipe Dream

           When de Maiziere became Germany's interior minister, he had
           planned to lead the ministry in a level-headed way. For example,
           he prefers to use phrases such as "internal calm" rather than
           "internal security." And it was only six weeks ago that he uttered
           the sentence: "There's no cause for alarm." But, since then, the
           chorus of warning voices has only ballooned in size.

           This change in course is the combined result of everything that
           happened beforehand. It might very well turn out that the alleged
           Indian terror squad stays home and that the raid on the Reichstag
           never happens. But what will remain is a well-founded supposition
           that there is a critical mass of terrorists in the border region
           between Afghanistan and Pakistan that is thinking about launching
           attacks in Europe -- and certainly in Germany, as well.

           Raw Nerves

           Given such circumstances, there is a major sense of alarm among
           German officials. Last Thursday, just a day after de Maiziere's
           shocking press conference, the BKA issued a press release "in
           connection with the current high-risk situation." It reported that
           a piece of suspicious luggage had been discovered a day earlier in
           Windhoek, the capital of Namibia, before being loaded onto a plane
           bound for Germany. The laptop bag contained batteries, wires, a
           detonator and a clock -- in other words, all the ingredients you
           need for a potential airborne catastrophe.

           It sounded as if another terror plot had been foiled. Had there
           been a plan to blow up Air Berlin Flight 7377 en route to Munich?
           And had the authorities, yet again, discovered an explosive device
           at the last minute? In the end, all the worry was unfounded. As it
           turned out, the piece of luggage was a test device built by a
           company that designs "real test" suitcases to be used to test
           security measures. It remains unclear who checked the bag in. But
           the fact that the BKA was so quick to go into alarm mode -- and
           publicly so -- has been a communications debacle.

           Of course, these days, nobody wants to be the one that wasn't
           sufficiently circumspect, the one who took too long to speak up.
           No one wants a replay of situations like the one from the
           beginning of November, when de Maiziere didn't know for hours
           whether the package that had arrived at the Chancellery contained
           actual explosives or was just a false alarm. Now, the threshold
           for sounding the alarm is already much lower.

           Bonded by Fear

           Of course, you can never be too sure. Over the last 12 months, a
           series of attacks concocted in the Afghan-Pakistani border region
           have been foiled in the West. For example, in May, a car bomb set
           in New York's Times Square by a man with ties to the Pakistani
           Taliban failed to properly detonate. In Copenhagen, al-Qaida had
           made plans to storm the offices of the Jyllands-Posten newspaper
           as revenge for its 2005 publishing of caricatures of the Prophet
           Muhammad. In October 2009, David Headley, an American citizen with
           Pakistani roots, was arrested after having already visited the
           newspaper's offices in order to scout them out before the planned
           attack. Other targets reportedly included the subway systems of
           New York City and Washington.

           On the other hand, absolute security is a pipe dream. For example,
           British authorities had even conducted rehearsals for how to
           respond to possible attacks. But, even so, when attacks claiming
           56 lives (including those of four attackers) did strike London, on
           July 7, 2005, they were unable to prevent them. Likewise, US
           intelligence services had warned India a number of times that
           terrorists were planning attacks in Mumbai.

           The new situation in Germany has at least had one positive side
           effect: For the time being, the traditionally quarrelsome interior
           ministers from both the state and the federal levels have
           refrained from their usual bickering. Following informal talks
           held last Thursday in Hamburg, Minister Bruch of
           Rhineland-Palatinate noted that he had "never experienced such
           harmony within this group" that has apparently been bonded
           together by their shared fear.

           Translated from the German by Josh Ward

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

       --

       - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

       Marko Papic

       Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

       STRATFOR

       700 Lavaca Street - 900

       Austin, Texas

       78701 USA

       P: + 1-512-744-4094

       marko.papic@stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

   --

   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

   Marko Papic

   Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

   STRATFOR

   700 Lavaca Street - 900

   Austin, Texas

   78701 USA

   P: + 1-512-744-4094

   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-22 17:58:26</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1009942_re-discussion-germany-ct-the-story-behind-germany-s-terror.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1010563</id>
    <title>[CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing possible
   cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat Anonymous can pose
   to cartels. The video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing personal
   information on cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I
   could not find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual
   being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and
   Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting flyers
   in Veracruz as part of the Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is
   speculation.

   Link: themeData
   Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
   denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed out at
   drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
   criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked individual
   addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the most recent video
   release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels in
   Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers, police,
   politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker
   group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
   consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
   mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their
   demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The potential of
   conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents a unique
   threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out at online bloggers,
   but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches
   from hackers before. 

   What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
        o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat to
   Mexican cartels.
        o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online media
        o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out at
   cartels

   While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a threat
        o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess identifiable
   information on cartel members
        o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
   cartels
        o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
   identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in the
   realm of possibilities for
               Anonymous
               o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit
   online activity (child pornography rings)

   Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the ultra-violent world
   of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result, their understanding of cartel
   activities may be limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting
   in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
   retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online assault of
   cartels.
        o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will cost
   lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are forced
   to collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are often victims of
   extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the identity of these
   individuals will not have a significant impact on cartel                  
   operations. Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero
   &amp; Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any consequences
   from this.
        o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are
   willing to go protect their operations.
           o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
           o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science community
   before, coercing computer science majors into working for them.
           o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of discovering
   hackers within Mexico.

    

   On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there are
     several issues to address and fix here.

     These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the discussion:

          o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but we
     can't gloss over that fact
          o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference between
     stealing bank records from government computers and overloading
     www.loszetas.com main page.
          o     There's no thought out process of what sort of information
     could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is kept online and
     accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
     identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops, politicians and
     businessmen who need to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
     Think about why the bloggers and media were killed in previous
     instances. Was it because they revealed operational details, because
     they acted as informants, because they exposed links with officials or
     because they somehow sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what
     kind of information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
          o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
     realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of
     damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the
     technical ability by a very small number of its members to infiltrate
     certain networks and databases and steal information. Now what kind of
     information would a cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
     internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could information be found?
     Government databases? Once we know what kind of information is
     accessible, we can also know more about the consequences of
     dissemination.
          o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace back
     attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done by people
     who may not understand the difference between an anon hacker and a
     blogger.

     On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

       wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

       -------- Original Message --------

        Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
           Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
           From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
       Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
             To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

       you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a lot
       more work

       You need to lay out:

       a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section is
       unclear
       b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and therefore
       their vulnerabilities and capabilities
       c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
       d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone who
       breaches their systems or exposes their connections

       I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable insight
       that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels of
       sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of cyber
       currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason to assume
       that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a protected
       fashion.

       Karen Hooper
       Latin America Analyst
       o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
       c: 512.750.7234
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com
       On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

       On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       Link: themeData

       Trigger

       Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers. Anonymous,
       a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed out at drug
       cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
       criminal cartels, including a video released depicting...? a person
       talking? a voice? words on a screen? exactly when?.  With the most
       recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
       criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of Mexican?
       American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who
       collude with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
       release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. The
       potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
       presents an unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly
       different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
       Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
       believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do not
       believe for a second that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

        

       In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
       day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of
       releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up front.
       Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back. Provide
       enough details so we understand who this guy is and why/how he was
       abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing revealing
       information on cartel members and operations are true, cartels will
       likely respond with violence against individuals revealed as opposing
       cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous members?. It also is likely
       that public disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will
       force the GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i
       don't understand what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten
       Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
       against Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue
       their threats against any individual using online media WC.... you
       mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here. against
       the cartels.

        

       The Battle Space

       Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate realities
       from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of the computer
       networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical boundaries. All
       personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in cyber space.  (That is
       not entirely true. They are physical people tho live in the real
       world. They have names and addresses - although most of them are
       likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power base consists of their
       technical capabilities in hacking. Any information connected to the
       Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's
       of individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population could
       be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous has done are
       DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big company with a
       website that brings in revenue, but it does not really matter if you
       don't run operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money via
       e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on the web than the
       jihadists.)

       Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base
       consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe
       themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the
       internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything and
       everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme goes,
       anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web of
       people who identify themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of serious
       IT capability. 

       The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been from
       targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

       The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
       Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to maximize
       profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar commerce. Yes.....
       but they use the internet to launder money and issue commands. We know
       that Sinaloa does that from insight. There is no reason to assume that
       Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity.  Their power base is built by
       large amounts of revenue and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like
       Los Zetas, are experienced in facing different types of threats.
       Cartels are always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel
       violence. While battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law
       Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in the
       flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted media outlets.
       Murdering journalists and online bloggers in order to cover details of
       their operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this
       discussion. You need to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of the
       cartels. Don't just assume they have no cyber presence.

        

       Anonymous' Weapons

       Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
       criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to combat
       cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating sensitive
       information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel statements via
       social media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean so far and that
       we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to cartels, they
       cannot fight with guns.  The significance of a targeted information
       operations campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
       overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream
       media outlets and social media blogs as such a threat to their
       operations, that they have continued to target journalists and
       bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was placed with a
       dead female body  more relevantly, on the body of a blogger. The
       message threatened any users who denounce cartels on blogging
       websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not really addressing the
       subheading

       As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks
       disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest Anonymous is
       capable of possessing information they threaten to release. By
       releasing identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican cartels,
       Anonymous threatens the life of those individuals. Anonymous's ability
       to disseminate sensitive information is limited by what is available
       via the Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
       should always be considered a possibility of an attack. However, as
       with the compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer
       networks, information available to Mexico's intelligence collection
       may not be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This
       isn't clear at all

        

       Cartel's Defense

                   A counter response to the video? by the cartels has yet to
       see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped member by Los
       Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by
       hackers so... how has there not been a counter response? also this
       undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is soley internet
       based, and underlines the vulnerabilities of associated members. How
       did they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well
       give you some indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
       Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the
       cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed for
       them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies dedicated to
       fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good intel
       indicating that) they are working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers
       threatening cartels, can operate in any region of the world. Personal
       information including locations is only available if a hacker chooses
       to divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
       figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous. Cartels are only
       capable of dealing with their online enemy, if they can physically
       reach out to them. Or start employing hackers of their own under their
       payroll? Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                   Cartels have been known to coerce the services of Mexican
       citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help of computer
       science majors through personal threats has been reported in the past
       where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels operate in the
       world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they will likely need
       the assistance of technical experts to help combat any threat by
       computer hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has
       been demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying
       any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies
       such as the FBi, with far more technical experience and resources than
       cartels, struggle to find hackers through investigations. A) How do
       you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???)
       B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult to
       track down

                   In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
       likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute
       force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within
       Mexico "still"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals
       with alleged connections to hacker communities will likely be targeted
       and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and public display
       of violence will likely continue to be used to scare online media into
       submission i'm not really seeing the online media-international
       hacking group connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
       inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely encountered
       before in their life. Whether the fear of cartel violence softens the
       confidence of Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels are able
       to seek out and capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos
       could call the collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off any
       inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 16:32:57</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1010563_-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>tristan.reed@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
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    </tags>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1010679</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else can build
   off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they pose to innocent
   people caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing on journalists
   or taxi drivers they show little understanding of the situation.  This has
   long term implications in not just Mexico.  They don't consider the
   consequences of their actions and they act without understanding the
   environment.  It was the same when they released information on the Sony
   Playstation network to protest Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a
   point. 

   On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing possible
     cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat Anonymous can pose
     to cartels. The video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing
     personal information on cartels as well as states a member had been
     kidnapped. I could not find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of
     the individual being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites
     (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an
     individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the Operation
     Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

     Link: themeData
     Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
     denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed out at
     drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
     criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked individual
     addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the most recent
     video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels
     in Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers, police,
     politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The
     hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member
     otherwise face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming
     November 5th was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
     reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met.
     The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
     presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out at
     online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing
     with any headaches from hackers before. 

     What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
          o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat to
     Mexican cartels.
          o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online media
          o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out at
     cartels

     While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a threat
          o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess identifiable
     information on cartel members
          o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
     cartels
          o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
     identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in the
     realm of possibilities for
                 Anonymous
                 o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
     illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

     Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the ultra-violent
     world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result, their understanding of
     cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when
     sitting in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
     retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online assault of
     cartels.
          o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will
     cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are
     forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are often
     victims of extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the
     identity of these individuals will not have a significant impact on
     cartel                   operations. Politicans have been accused of
     working with cartels (Guerrero &amp; Veracruz' governor) before, however
     there has yet to be any consequences from this.
          o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are
     willing to go protect their operations.
             o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
             o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science community
     before, coercing computer science majors into working for them.
             o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
     discovering hackers within Mexico.

      

     On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

       Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there
       are several issues to address and fix here.

       These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
       discussion:

            o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but we
       can't gloss over that fact
            o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference between
       stealing bank records from government computers and overloading
       www.loszetas.com main page.
            o     There's no thought out process of what sort of information
       could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is kept online and
       accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
       identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops, politicians and
       businessmen who need to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
       Think about why the bloggers and media were killed in previous
       instances. Was it because they revealed operational details, because
       they acted as informants, because they exposed links with officials or
       because they somehow sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what
       kind of information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
            o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
       realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of
       damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the
       technical ability by a very small number of its members to infiltrate
       certain networks and databases and steal information. Now what kind of
       information would a cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
       internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could information be found?
       Government databases? Once we know what kind of information is
       accessible, we can also know more about the consequences of
       dissemination.
            o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
       back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done by
       people who may not understand the difference between an anon hacker
       and a blogger.

       On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

         wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

         -------- Original Message --------

          Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
             Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
             From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
         Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
               To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

         you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a lot
         more work

         You need to lay out:

         a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section is
         unclear
         b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
         therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
         c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
         d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone who
         breaches their systems or exposes their connections

         I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
         insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels
         of sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of
         cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason to
         assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
         protected fashion.

         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
         c: 512.750.7234
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

         On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

         Link: themeData

         Trigger

         Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
         Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed out
         at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
         Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released depicting...?
         a person talking? a voice? words on a screen? exactly when?.  With
         the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
         the criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of
         Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
         journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker group
         demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
         consequences. The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal
         cartels and hackers, presents an unprecedented war front for the
         cartels. The vastly different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas
         leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have little
         experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no experience
         with the cartels. I do not believe for a second that the cartels
         have no experience with hackers.

          

         In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
         day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of
         releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up
         front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back.
         Provide enough details so we understand who this guy is and why/how
         he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing
         revealing information on cartel members and operations are true,
         cartels will likely respond with violence against individuals
         revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous
         members?. It also is likely that public disclosure of GOM officials
         who collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving the
         Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this means. You
         mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel
         will be able to retaliate against Anonymous remains unanswered .
         However, cartels will continue their threats against any individual
         using online media WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not
         talking about bloggers here. against the cartels.

          

         The Battle Space

         Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
         realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of
         the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical
         boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in
         cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They are physical people
         tho live in the real world. They have names and addresses - although
         most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power base
         consists of their technical capabilities in hacking. Any information
         connected to the Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers.
         (Identifying the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst of
         Mexico's population could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of
         what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
         Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in revenue,
         but it does not really matter if you don't run operations on the
         web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are also far
         less dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

         Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base
         consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe
         themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the
         internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
         and everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme
         goes, anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web
         of people who identify themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of
         serious IT capability. 

         The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been from
         targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

         The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
         Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
         maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
         commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money and
         issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight. There
         is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity.
         Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue and escalating
         brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing
         different types of threats. Cartels are always suffering at the
         hands of cartel on cartel violence. While battling each other,
         cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels
         wish to avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
         have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
         bloggers in order to cover details of their operations. ok... but
         that's kind of a red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus
         on the possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume
         they have no cyber presence.

          

         Anonymous' Weapons

         Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
         criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
         combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating
         sensitive information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel
         statements via social media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean
         so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
         cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance of a
         targeted information operations campaign by technically elite
         individuals can not be overlooked should not be underestimated.
         Cartels view main stream media outlets and social media blogs as
         such a threat to their operations, that they have continued to
         target journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los
         Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the
         body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce
         cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not
         really addressing the subheading

         As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks
         disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest Anonymous
         is capable of possessing information they threaten to release. By
         releasing identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
         cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those individuals.
         Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive information is limited
         by what is available via the Internet. Government computers
         connected to the Internet should always be considered a possibility
         of an attack. However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the
         US governments computer networks, information available to Mexico's
         intelligence collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you
         trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

          

         Cartel's Defense

                     A counter response to the video? by the cartels has yet
         to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped member by
         Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed
         by hackers so... how has there not been a counter response? also
         this undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is soley
         internet based, and underlines the vulnerabilities of associated
         members. How did they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that
         could very well give you some indication to the technical ability of
         the cartels . As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
         wide web , the cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely
         are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole
         agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume
         (and we have good intel indicating that) they are working on
         disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in
         any region of the world. Personal information including locations is
         only available if a hacker chooses to divulge it or if the subject
         of the attack is savvy enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only
         work for Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
         online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
         employing hackers of their own under their payroll? Stranger things
         have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                     Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
         Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help of
         computer science majors through personal threats has been reported
         in the past where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels
         operate in the world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they
         will likely need the assistance of technical experts to help combat
         any threat by computer hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside
         of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable
         of identifying any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
         enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
         experience and resources than cartels, struggle to find hackers
         through investigations. A) How do you know they are not in Mexico?
         (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not
         all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                     In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
         likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute
         force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within
         Mexico "still"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals
         with alleged connections to hacker communities will likely be
         targeted and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and
         public display of violence will likely continue to be used to scare
         online media into submission i'm not really seeing the online
         media-international hacking group connection here.  The cruel
         manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer hackers
         have unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
         cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to
         be seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of
         the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff and
         simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 17:22:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1010679_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1010733</id>
    <title>DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat
</title>
    <description>   Great report from Der Spiegel (thanks Mikey).  I suggest anyone interested
   to read the whole thing.  They ask the right questions, and while not as
   much detail as I hoped, give us a much better understanding on the threat
   in Germany. 

   The BKA (germany's FBI) must be extremely busy verifying the details of
   this virtual walk-in.  It obviously caused the germans to shit their
   pants.  But the real questions are buried in the article---how real was
   this plot, how real is the source, is the source just trying to get back
   to the land of brezeln and bier? Trying to double-cross them somehow?

   Also note the tip off from the FBI (cue fred), not the usual CIA liaison
   with BND. 

   For Eurasia, there's a lot in here on the internal politics of the
   interior minister position, and the relation between state and federal
   government. 

   On 11/22/10 8:55 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

     -------- Original Message --------

      Subject: [OS] GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat 
         Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 08:38:21 -0600                          
         From: Graham Smith &lt;graham.smith@stratfor.com&gt;                 
     Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                            
           To: os@stratfor.com                                          

      11/22/2010 11:38 AM
     Fears of a Mumbai Redux
     The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat

     http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,730377,00.html
     By Matthias Bartsch, Yassin Musharbash and Holger Stark

     Germany is currently in a state of high alert. Security officials are
     warning that they have concrete information pointing to a possible
     terror attack on the federal parliament building in Berlin, a massively
     popular tourist attraction. The days of Interior Minister Thomas de
     Maiziere's reserved stances in dealing with such warnings appear to be
     over.

     The call came from abroad, and the man speaking hurriedly on the other
     end of the line sounded as if he feared for his life. He wanted out, he
     told the officers of the German Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) --
     out of the terrorist scene. He wanted to come back to Germany, back to
     his family. Then he asked if German officials could help him.

     Right now, they're trying to do just that. The BKA is pursuing the case
     under the codename "Nova." The apparently remorseful man could be an
     important possible whistleblower from a dangerous region of the globe.
     In fact, he is also the most recent reason why German Interior Minister
     Thomas de Maiziere put the entire country in a state of fright on
     Wednesday.

     During a hastily called press conference that day, de Maiziere stated
     that Germany faced the threat of terrorist attacks that might be
     launched against the country at some point in November. As he put it,
     Germany is "presently dealing with a new situation."
     Just two days earlier, the source had called for the third time in just
     a short period and provided more information. He told officials that a
     small group of terrorists wanted to conduct a raid on the Reichstag
     building in Berlin, which houses the federal parliament, and that that
     was only one of the targets included in their attack plans.

     Germany on High Alert

     Since then, Germany has been in a state of high alert. The Reichstag is
     surrounded with barricades and its popular cupola tourist attraction
     temporarily closed to visitors. Police armed with submachine guns are
     patrolling major railway stations and airports. And vacations have been
     called off for officials at the country's security agencies. Wherever
     they have cause for doing so, the authorities are secretly monitoring
     communications, conducting surveillance operations and launching
     undercover investigations. At the moment, investigators seem to be at a
     loss; their modus operandi: "We'll prod the shrubs and see if we can
     flush out any birds."

     "There is cause for worry, but no cause for hysteria," de Maiziere
     assured his listeners. But while he has never been much of an agitator,
     his colleagues at the state level have described the situation in much
     more drastic terms. Uwe Schu:nemann, for example, who has been the
     interior minister of the northwestern state of Lower Saxony since 2003,
     stated that he had "never experienced a heightened security situation
     like this one." And Berlin Senator for the Interior Ehrhart Ko:rting,
     whose position is tantamount to that of a government minister in the
     city-state, has already even gone so far as to call on the inhabitants
     of the German capital city to report suspicious-looking individuals of
     Arab origin to the police. "If you suddenly see three somewhat
     strange-looking men who are new to your neighborhood, who hide their
     faces and who only speak Arabic," Ko:rting said, "you should report them
     to the authorities."

     Under heightened pressure, officials in Germany's 16 federal states are
     now checking to see when and where major events are scheduled to take
     place this coming week within their boundaries. And nothing suggested as
     a possible target is being discounted, no matter how unlikely. For
     example, officials in Rhineland-Palatinate warned the state's interior
     minister, Karl Peter Burch, that there was always a lot going on at IKEA
     stores on Saturdays.[WTF]

     Serenity, Scaremongering and Strategy

     Since last week, German politicians at both the state and federal levels
     have once again had to figure out how they will handle themselves when
     making warnings about terrorist attacks. They have had to come up with a
     language that can simultaneously convey both an alert and a sense of
     calm.

     This is no easy task. For one thing, this isn't the first time this has
     happened. In September 2009, for example, right before federal elections
     were held, there were concrete threats that resulted in a heightened
     security situation. But, in the end, nothing happened. This time around,
     people are wondering whether they are on the precipice of an emergency
     or whether these are once again empty threats.

     Still, one thing is certain: For the time being, Germany has become a
     different country -- more nervous, more anxious, more agitated. And
     Germany's domestic security policies are being put to the test.

     When Interior Minister de Maiziere assumed his office in October 2009 in
     conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel's government, he aimed to cool
     down the heated sense of alarm regularly fanned out by his predecessors.
     What's more, the man who had served as Merkel's chief of staff in
     Chancellery until being moved to the role of interior minister in her
     new government, was given the task of nurturing a more relaxed
     relationship between her party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU),
     and its new coalition partner, the business-friendly Free Democratic
     Party (FDP). In particular, it was his job to not draw out the
     long-standing conflict over domestic security policies with the Justice
     Ministry, which has been led since the 2009 election by Sabine
     Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, a member of the FDP. Indeed, Merkel feared
     that the quarrelsome FDP might try to capitalize on the issue to win
     over more voters, so she assigned de Maiziere to prevent that from
     happening.

     In fact, the plan was to repeat the same strategy that the CDU and its
     Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), had used when
     they were in the so-called "grand coalition" with the center-left Social
     Democratic Party, between 2005 and 2009. At the time, they made a point
     of undermining the SPD by championing what had traditionally been the
     latter party's issues.

     A Game-Changer

     But now the game plan has changed. This November will drastically alter
     de Maiziere's understanding of his role in office. If he tries to return
     things to their previous state of calm, he's going to have a very tough
     time. In fact, it's much more likely that he will be a completely
     different interior minister.

     For a while now, de Maiziere's softer stance has prompted opposition by
     politicians on the right involved with domestic security issues. But
     they are now calling louder than ever for a tougher course to be
     followed. Merkel is also adjusting to the new situation and is
     reportedly happy with the way de Maiziere handled himself last week.
     Likewise, no one seems to have voiced any criticism last Thursday
     evening during a meeting of the Coalition Committee, a regular gathering
     of the parties that are part of the government.

     The almost complete lack of protest has a lot to do with where the
     alarming information is coming from. In fact, information regarding the
     supposedly imminent attacks has come from two independent sources.
     Shortly before receiving the telephone call about the planned attacks,
     BKA officials had received a cable from their American counterparts at
     the FBI, America's federal police force, warning of possible attacks.

     Still, what truth is there in these "security-related" pieces of
     information coming from both domestic and foreign sources? And, given
     all the discrepancies in the warning messages, just how much do they
     deserve to be trusted? Indeed, even among security officials themselves,
     there is some doubt about how legitimate these statements are -- and
     about just how acute the danger threatening Germany really is.

     An Attack Modelled after Mumbai[plot details in this section]
     What the caller reported was undeniably alarming. According to him,
     al-Qaida and associated groups based in Pakistan were making joint
     preparations for an attack in Germany. One idea was to remotely detonate
     a bomb using a mobile phone. Another called for a small group of
     terrorists to storm the Reichstag with guns blazing, take hostages and
     end everything in one calamitous bloodbath. Indeed, BKA officials
     learned that the latter plan had been modeled on the storming of luxury
     hotels in Mumbai, the Indian capital, almost exactly two years ago, in a
     massacre that left 175 people dead.

     According to the caller, the plan called for the terrorists to procure
     the submachine guns, automatic rifles, explosives and whatever else they
     would need to storm Germany's parliament building in the Balkans. He
     said that two men had already traveled to Germany six to eight weeks
     earlier, adding that one had the nom de guerre of "Abu Mohammed" and
     that the other one was a German of Turkish origin. Both apparently had
     roots in the Greater Berlin metropolitan area, were currently unemployed
     and living off of welfare payments and had immersed themselves in the
     anonymity provided by a major city -- until the time should come for
     their activation.

     Likewise, there were allegedly four other volunteers -- including a
     German, a Turk, a North African and another jihadist of unknown identity
     -- in the training camps run by al-Qaida and related groups waiting for
     the signal to travel to Germany. And, according to the telephone source,
     al-Qaida's plan was to attack in February or March.
     The only question now relates to just how credible the caller's
     statements are. He is an insider who joined up with armed groups several
     months ago and has earned a reputation as a fanatic fighter.
     But could it be that he is only trying to tell German officials the
     juiciest things possible in order to raise his own market value and
     thereby prompt them to extract him from the terror scene? Or could it be
     that al-Qaida is even planning a second spectacular coup like the one in
     December 2009, when the Americans allowed a supposedly top-level
     turncoat onto an American military base without any sort of pat-down,
     who went on to detonate his explosive vest and blow seven CIA officials
     to bits?

     A Strange Message

     A clear picture has yet to emerge. And one reason for this is also the
     fact that it was only two weeks ago that the FBI first decided to share
     information about another possible attack with German officials.

     In this case, even the way contact was made was unusual. Under normal
     circumstances, liaisons from the CIA station in Germany are the ones to
     communicate American warnings to their German counterparts. But, this
     time around, it was an apparently particularly anxious FBI that chose to
     directly notify the BKA.
     The FBI told the Germans about an obscure Indian group called "Saif," or
     "sword." Despite being a Shiite group, it had allegedly made a pact with
     al-Qaida, a Sunni organization, and sent five of its men to the
     Pakistani province of Waziristan for training. According to the FBI, two
     volunteers -- who were already equipped with visas allowing them to
     travel freely within the 25 European countries belonging to the Schengen
     zone -- were supposedly already en route to Germany and would enter the
     United Arab Emirates on Monday, Nov. 22. There, they would allegedly be
     provided with new travel documents before traveling on to Germany. One
     of the men is supposedly named "Khan," which is about as common in that
     part of the world as "Smith" is in English-speaking countries. And no
     firm conclusion had been made about their nationalities.

     The FBI agents even named the presumed masterminds behind the operation.
     A certain Mushtaq Altaf Bin-Khadri, who is in charge of finances and
     training for "Saif," allegedly dispatched the terrorist squad. But the
     FBI was not in a position to comment on the targets of the two men in
     Germany.

     One name came up time and again in the communique, and one that pricked
     the Germans' ears: Dawood Ibrahim. The 54-year-old arms trader is
     "India's most-wanted man." The US government has listed him as a "global
     terrorist" and persuaded the United Nations to place his name on a list
     of supporters of terror. Ibrahim is rumored to be the head of D-Company,
     a criminal syndicate named after himself, and is believed to be in
     charge of smuggling the suspected terrorists into Germany.

     Both the FBI and the BKA are attaching a lot of importance to the
     information in the FBI communique. But the intelligence services of the
     two countries -- the CIA in the United States and the BND and Office for
     the Protection of the Constitution in Germany, the country's foreign and
     domestic intelligence agencies, respectively -- point to internal
     contradictions as reasons for their skepticism. As they see it, for
     example, it is highly unlikely that a Shiite group would team up with
     Sunni terrorists, especially since a good part of al-Qaida propaganda
     vilifies Shiites. Other reasons for doubt include the facts that none of
     the intelligence agencies was previously familiar with an organization
     called "Saif," that there have been no previously recorded threats
     against Germany by Indian extremists, and that the whole scenario seems
     rather implausible.

     On the other hand, the FBI information is uncommonly concrete. In
     addition to the names of the suspects, it also provides information
     about the exact day on which they are supposed to arrive in the United
     Arab Emirates. Moreover, Ibrahim is believed to be one of the men behind
     the terror attacks in Mumbai. If he really is involved, that alone would
     be reason enough for worry.

     Abnormal Circumstances

     Under normal circumstances, a message of this kind from the United
     States would no doubt be cause for serious-minded scrutiny, but it would
     not be a cause for alarm. For example, the BKA would go through all
     recent visa applications, and federal police officers would take a
     closer look at all the people entering Germany from Arab states. And the
     intelligence services would make the rounds to see if any of its
     partners had any helpful information on the matter.

     Indeed, under normal circumstances, there are always a lot of these
     communiques, most of which turn out to be false alarms. But these are no
     normal circumstances. Germany is in a state of emergency. Other
     countries, such as the United States, employ a system of official
     warning levels based on color codes that change -- from yellow to
     orange, for example -- when the danger level is thought to increase.
     But, in Germany, the interior minister is the barometer: He consults
     with experts -- and then it is he who must call the shots.

     For the minister, a situation like this presents a dilemma. If he
     remains silent and something happens, he's a failure. If he makes loud
     warning and nothing happens, he's just a rabble-rouser trying to push
     through controversial tougher security laws. And, of course, the public
     never thanks you if everyday life continues in a normal, peaceful way.

     Absolute Security Remains a Pipe Dream

     When de Maiziere became Germany's interior minister, he had planned to
     lead the ministry in a level-headed way. For example, he prefers to use
     phrases such as "internal calm" rather than "internal security." And it
     was only six weeks ago that he uttered the sentence: "There's no cause
     for alarm." But, since then, the chorus of warning voices has only
     ballooned in size.

     This change in course is the combined result of everything that happened
     beforehand. It might very well turn out that the alleged Indian terror
     squad stays home and that the raid on the Reichstag never happens. But
     what will remain is a well-founded supposition that there is a critical
     mass of terrorists in the border region between Afghanistan and Pakistan
     that is thinking about launching attacks in Europe -- and certainly in
     Germany, as well.

     Raw Nerves

     Given such circumstances, there is a major sense of alarm among German
     officials. Last Thursday, just a day after de Maiziere's shocking press
     conference, the BKA issued a press release "in connection with the
     current high-risk situation." It reported that a piece of suspicious
     luggage had been discovered a day earlier in Windhoek, the capital of
     Namibia, before being loaded onto a plane bound for Germany. The laptop
     bag contained batteries, wires, a detonator and a clock -- in other
     words, all the ingredients you need for a potential airborne
     catastrophe.

     It sounded as if another terror plot had been foiled. Had there been a
     plan to blow up Air Berlin Flight 7377 en route to Munich? And had the
     authorities, yet again, discovered an explosive device at the last
     minute? In the end, all the worry was unfounded. As it turned out, the
     piece of luggage was a test device built by a company that designs "real
     test" suitcases to be used to test security measures. It remains unclear
     who checked the bag in. But the fact that the BKA was so quick to go
     into alarm mode -- and publicly so -- has been a communications debacle.

     Of course, these days, nobody wants to be the one that wasn't
     sufficiently circumspect, the one who took too long to speak up. No one
     wants a replay of situations like the one from the beginning of
     November, when de Maiziere didn't know for hours whether the package
     that had arrived at the Chancellery contained actual explosives or was
     just a false alarm. Now, the threshold for sounding the alarm is already
     much lower.

     Bonded by Fear

     Of course, you can never be too sure. Over the last 12 months, a series
     of attacks concocted in the Afghan-Pakistani border region have been
     foiled in the West. For example, in May, a car bomb set in New York's
     Times Square by a man with ties to the Pakistani Taliban failed to
     properly detonate. In Copenhagen, al-Qaida had made plans to storm the
     offices of the Jyllands-Posten newspaper as revenge for its 2005
     publishing of caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad. In October 2009,
     David Headley, an American citizen with Pakistani roots, was arrested
     after having already visited the newspaper's offices in order to scout
     them out before the planned attack. Other targets reportedly included
     the subway systems of New York City and Washington.

     On the other hand, absolute security is a pipe dream. For example,
     British authorities had even conducted rehearsals for how to respond to
     possible attacks. But, even so, when attacks claiming 56 lives
     (including those of four attackers) did strike London, on July 7, 2005,
     they were unable to prevent them. Likewise, US intelligence services had
     warned India a number of times that terrorists were planning attacks in
     Mumbai.

     The new situation in Germany has at least had one positive side effect:
     For the time being, the traditionally quarrelsome interior ministers
     from both the state and the federal levels have refrained from their
     usual bickering. Following informal talks held last Thursday in Hamburg,
     Minister Bruch of Rhineland-Palatinate noted that he had "never
     experienced such harmony within this group" that has apparently been
     bonded together by their shared fear.

     Translated from the German by Josh Ward

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-22 16:28:56</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1010733_discussion-germany-ct-the-story-behind-germany-s-terror.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1010764</id>
    <title>Re: JSOC Leaning Forward - MX (internal use only)
</title>
    <description>It would be leaked before the election as a measure of "toughness."  Sad
part is it has nothing to do w/killing narcos.   All about the
re-election. 

Reva Bhalla wrote:
&gt; V. interesting if the US is going to increase their footprint in mx
&gt;
&gt; i dont see exactly how this helps Obama's re-election. it's not like
&gt; the US can be open about having forces inside MX.. they wouldn't be
&gt; able to claim their successes if they have any
&gt; On Nov 22, 2010, at 8:12 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;
&gt;&gt; Internal Use Only for now, until I can ferret out more details --
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; A very good contact of mine, current special agent assigned to JSOC Ft.
&gt;&gt; Bragg, advised the special operations group @ JSOC Ft. Bragg are leaning
&gt;&gt; forward with expanding their footprint INSIDE Mexico.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Curiously, but not surprising, the matter is being looked at by the NSC
&gt;&gt; as a possible advanatge to Obama's re-election campaign, however, State
&gt;&gt; is raising foreign policy objections.   The recent killings of innocent
&gt;&gt; AmCitzs (Juarez) are being viewed as a possible window to "spin" a get
&gt;&gt; tough on drug violence/narcos as part of Obama's re-election campaign.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Source said the decision will be a political one.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Last week, there was a close-hold meeting @ the US Emb MX City to
&gt;&gt; discuss operations.  RSOs from every constituent post were brought in to
&gt;&gt; examine blow-back and risk.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; I'll have an opportunity to visit w/my contact later this week and am
&gt;&gt; not clear if the matter is being considered for unilateral operations
&gt;&gt; w/out the MX govt's knowledge, which would be my advice.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Comment:
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; My gut tells me it would be undercover Green Berets in a covert
&gt;&gt; capacity.  Doomed to failure
&gt;
</description>
    <date>2010-11-22 15:56:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1010764_re-jsoc-leaning-forward-mx-internal-use-only-.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1011072</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - VZ/Colombia - VZ regime stability and Makled
</title>
    <description>   dude, yeah.. Cabello is serious shit.  Everyone was speculating he would
   be the one to replace Chavez.  I'll be writing on this as soon as i get
   the OK from the source
   On Nov 19, 2010, at 4:49 PM, Michael Wilson wrote:

     heh I just realized Diosdao's maternal last name is
     Rondon....confusing!!

     Cabello held down the presidency for Chavez during the 2002 coup and I
     think was vice-president at one point around then

     On 11/19/10 4:35 PM, Reginald Thompson wrote:

       PUBLICATION: analysis/background
       ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
       SOURCE DESCRIPTION:VZ302
       SOURCE  Reliability :  B
       ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
       DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
       SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
       There's been heavy negotiation between VZ and Colombia and US over
       Makled extradition
       US has given approval to Colombia's extradition of Makled to VZ (as we
       suspected)
       Unclear exactly what all the Colombian demands are, but from what I've
       been able to gather, Colombia has given a list to VZ of the most
       senior guerillas that they want extradited. US is demanding info from
       VZ on VZ banks and their connections to narco-trafficking and Iran so
       they can build cases against them. 
       Source seemed surprised that US isn't pushing for more... as he said
       'what can I say, this is how the Obama adminstration has been with
       this issue. There isn't a real strategy. If it were me, I would hold
       Makled over Chavez's head and extract as much as possible from him,
       but they're going soft on this." there's also no coordination. DoJ
       says they want Mackled but they have to raise it to the level of the
       presidency and state to get it going. They're not focused on it at
       all. DEA can't coordinate either. 
       (side note - this clarifies a bit what Uribe told me about the US
       having to 'raise its voice' in demanding Makled. I think the
       Colombians are surprised that the US isn't pushing more on this. As
       the source says, Santos is not naive.)
       Before Chavez supported Rangel, Rangel and the most senior general
       went to CHavez and asked 'who are you going to side with?" Chavez
       didn't have much choice but to do something, liket his promotion to
       show the rest that he wasn't going to betray them over Makled. 
       Watch Diosdado Cabello and Tomas Rondon. They're out. Completely
       sidelined. Even their cell phones that they use for a direct line to
       the president have been taken away. They knew too much. From what
       we've been able to gather, the total amount of money laundered between
       the two reaches as high as $15 billion (!)
       I asked how is VZ containing them if they know too much. He laughed
       and said Reva, Reva... I'm sure the Cubans can take of that.
       He agrees that all the activity around the housing projects is a rush
       job for them to launder more money, but will get more info on that in
       a couple weeks. 
       Below is some info on Cabello and Rondon that Reggie compiled for me:
       Diosdado Cabello
         * .         Cabello is currently the Vice President of the Central
           PSUV Political Region
       o   He attended meetings earlier this month of the PSUV National
       Directorate where the *three Rs* program to relaunch the revolution
       has been a topic of discussion (link)
       o   Journalist Miguel Salazar seems to imply in a column from this
       month that Cabello is one of Chavez*s protected associates, despite
       his apparent falling out with him and that he has his eyes set on the
       presidency of the national assembly (link)
       S:  Interesting aside: Salazar claims Cabello acted as financier for
       the La Piedrita paramilitary group, which attacked opposition news
       organizations.
       o   Cabello has been linked to several scandals in recent news
       stories. These include:
       S:  The BusCaracas program in Caracas was meant to be a bus line to be
       completed in Aug. 2009, while Cabello was minister of public works.
       The first stage of the project may be completed in the first quarter
       of 2011 (link).
       S:  Legislator Julio Garcia Jarpa has criticized Cabello for promising
       in 2009 to deliver 400 houses in Tachira state that were never
       completed (link).

        

       Tomas Sanchez Rondon
         * .         Sanchez Rondon is still in charge of Bolivariana de
           Seguros and Seguros La Previsora (link)
       o   He  was accused of corruption in anonymous e-mails that claimed he
       had brought one of his sons, Ronald Sanchez Mejia, aboard but without
       an official title (link)
       S:  Ronald reportedly negotiates insurance coverage with state-owned
       firms, is in charge of collecting payments and maintaining relations
       with customers. 
       o   I don*t really understand what Sanchez Rondon is accused of in the
       email, because it goes around in circles and never really goes into
       specific charges past the fraudulent employment of his son. However,
       it seems that the firm Bolivariana de Seguros functions irregularly
       and apparently employs many people but doesn*t really have much
       business. It appears to be some sort of insurance fraud.
       they know too much - the amount of money that has been laundered $15
       billion
       housing -- need to launder more money
       belarus
       radar equipment -- 
       giving to 
       a deal in Abu Dhabi 
       recent paid by the VZ re

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-19 23:49:06</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-09 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1011072_re-insight-vz-colombia-vz-regime-stability-and-makled-.html</permalink>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1011703</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already The USG arrested 10
     Russian spies last year, are you willing to say foreign intel is not
     capable of conducting espionage undetected?

     2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
     responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating cyber
     intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case HUMINT is
     just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT capabilities does not
     indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers. NSA may have there own
     department for tracking hackers but it does not make it SIGINT. The
     question is if the attack is high priority enough.  Many people assume
     there is no attribution because there is no response, but I don't think
     that is accurate.  Many people say this, because no attribution is one
     reason for no response.

     3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new laptop and
     start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack involves much more than
     a recently bought laptop.  In the same way there is an attack cycle for
     a terrorist attack or crime, there is one for a cyber attack.  A very
     simple attack may be as hard to trace as a nearly-random mugging in the
     dark in a neighborhood with much more serious crime and no CCTV
     cameras.  A more complicated attack, however, involves pre-operational
     surveillance, developing exploits, developing programs and code, gaining
     access, exploiting that, and carrying out an attack.  Discovering
     exploits and writing code can be done entirely offline, out of sight of
     law enforcement or intel agencies. Pre-operational surveillance and
     gaining access (the point of the exploit you write offline) would fit in
     my example. The point is, if you don't link your computer to
     identifiable information, you remain anonymous.  And that takes time,
     giving more time for your exposure Exposure comes from network activity
     with the target, a lot of the pre-operational phase of an attack can
     occur without network activity. Look at everything that went into
     Stuxnet as a great example, that couldn't be done with one person with a
     new laptop. Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of
     necessary labor for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are
     discussing operations on the scale of causing physical damage to
     extremely sensitive equipment .  All of this activity provides activity
     and evidence which helps for attribution.  Of course it is always
     possible to develop an attack, just like any other operation, that even
     the best law enforcement and national intelligence agencies have trouble
     or cannot attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that it's very difficult
     for someone to successfully use Anonymous as a cover and have NSA, GHQ,
     MID, Aman, etc, be unable to attribute it.  How do you know if NSA or
     GHQ is effective in identifying hackers? They may not choose to cover it
     if it is small scale crime, however. 
     On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored cyber
       warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing that, since
       you can conduct a cyber attack without associating with a hacker group
       and still deny / cover actions on behalf of the State. An individual
       attacking US computer assets from China, may be working by himself or
       on behalf of the Chinese government, but unless the US has other intel
       on the Chinese government's cyber warfare activities in order to
       corroborate there is little capability to distinguish.

       It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
       operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets from
       SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual responsible for
       hacking State run servers. In the past, I have turned to SIGINT
       organizations for collections on computer related material, but this
       was due to the US being behind in cyber warfare, and not knowing where
       to assign responsibility. However, this has changed dramatically in
       the last couple of years.

       Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As an
       extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go to a
       Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the online
       activity to something revealing (accessing personal email accounts,
       tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop, etc..), and
       begin hacking government email accounts then never use the laptop
       again. Unless LEA could get an accurate description of my appearance
       from Starbuck's patrons or possible security cameras, I can not think
       of way to identify me.

       Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to these
       enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied to specific
       computer-related activities because of the difficulty in identifying
       individuals.

       I think the most likely way for a "Anonymous cover" to be blown, would
       be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a common
       participant in "Anonymous" activities, was working for a State?
       Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that State agent
       organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter buddies, what signs
       could a LEA look for to distinguish?

       On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a bit)

         1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything actually
         harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't, but i'm very
         doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first real case where
         they could do some minor damage--to individual people, not not to an
         organization or anything that would come as a serious or strategic
         threat. 

         2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is actually
         pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as a cover, but
         that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could probably still be
         attributed if important enough to those agencies.  The recent attack
         on Sony actually brings this issue up- Whoever is calling themselves
         anonymous denies they did it.  And keep in mind how much they have
         claimed an publicized attacks in the past, even before they were
         carried out.  The attack on the Playstation Network was more
         sophisticated than anonymous' usual work (though potentially
         coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that distracted Sony's IT
         security).  But whoever did it, again, no real damage came of it. 
         Congress is holding hearings over data security, but this is no
         different than the OC groups stealing your credit card information. 
         LE will go after them, have some success, but the threat is not that
         large. 
         On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

           Link: themeData

           I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to have a
           broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no nothing, or
           almost nothing about what this group is and the threat it poses.
           Reviewing their list of attacks
           (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most of
           the cases, they are the "good" guys, sort of a Robin Hood of the
           internet . The interesting thing when it comes to their
           interactions with the cartels is the dubious role they play: at
           the same time they can be fighting crime by revealing cartel
           members/supporters, but they can also put lives in risk.

           However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
           Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can
           conduct a cyber attack under "Anonymous" is worrisome.
           (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

           If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
           websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to know
           more about these guys. Who they are? What are they interested in?
           How they operate? Who they have targeted so far? How can I defend
           myself from them? In what countries are they active? Should I
           worry about them at all? Can I use them to achieve any particular
           goal?

           On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

             nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else
             can build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they
             pose to innocent people caught up in the terror that is Mexico. 
             By focusing on journalists or taxi drivers they show little
             understanding of the situation.  This has long term implications
             in not just Mexico.  They don't consider the consequences of
             their actions and they act without understanding the
             environment.  It was the same when they released information on
             the Sony Playstation network to protest Sony.  They hurt
             innocent people to prove a point. 

             On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

               Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
               possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
               Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by
               Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on cartels
               as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
               find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the
               individual being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites
               (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it
               may be an individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the
               Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

               Link: themeData
               Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
               distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government
               websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
               statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a
               video depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug
               cartels on October 10? With the most recent video release,
               Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels in
               Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers,
               police, politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal
               cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow
               kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. In the
               Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
               day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands
               of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The potential of
               conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
               presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels
               lashing out at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any
               reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers
               before. 

               What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                    o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
               threat to Mexican cartels.
                    o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit
               online media
                    o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to
               lash out at cartels

               While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose
               a threat
                    o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
               identifiable information on cartel members
                    o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could
               acquire on cartels
                    o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
               communications, identifiable information on cartels members
               have to be considered in the realm of possibilities for
                           Anonymous
                           o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to
               reveal illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

               Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
               ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
               result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
               limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting in
               front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
               retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online
               assault of cartels.
                    o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
               journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some
               of these individuals are forced to collude with cartels.    
                         Taxi drivers are often victims of extortion or
               coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the identity of these
               individuals will not have a significant impact on cartel    
                             operations. Politicans have been accused of
               working with cartels (Guerrero &amp; Veracruz' governor) before,
               however there has yet to be any consequences from this.
                    o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent
               cartels are willing to go protect their operations.
                       o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                       o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
               community before, coercing computer science majors into
               working for them.
                       o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
               discovering hackers within Mexico.

                

               On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                 Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea
                 but there are several issues to address and fix here.

                 These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
                 discussion:

                      o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's
                 fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                      o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a
                 difference between stealing bank records from government
                 computers and overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                      o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
                 information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of
                 info is kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You
                 seem to be talking about identities, whose? If anything it's
                 dirty cops, politicians and businessmen who need to worry
                 about what anon is going to be saying. Think about why the
                 bloggers and media were killed in previous instances. Was it
                 because they revealed operational details, because they
                 acted as informants, because they exposed links with
                 officials or because they somehow sullied the cartel's
                 reputation? In short, what kind of information is damaging
                 to the cartels themselves?
                      o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon
                 can realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes
                 a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence
                 capacity except for the technical ability by a very small
                 number of its members to infiltrate certain networks and
                 databases and steal information. Now what kind of
                 information would a cartel keep on a network that is
                 connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else
                 could information be found? Government databases? Once we
                 know what kind of information is accessible, we can also
                 know more about the consequences of dissemination.
                      o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to
                 trace back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of
                 killings done by people who may not understand the
                 difference between an anon hacker and a blogger.

                 On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                   wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                   -------- Original Message --------

                    Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                       Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                       From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
                   Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                         To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

                   you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to
                   need a lot more work

                   You need to lay out:

                   a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger
                   section is unclear
                   b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is,
                   and therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
                   c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
                   anything
                   d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill
                   anyone who breaches their systems or exposes their
                   connections

                   I also just want to point out that we have reasonable
                   reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some
                   significant levels of sophistication in their online
                   presence, to include the use of cyber currencies and
                   significant IT capacity. There is no reason to assume that
                   Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
                   protected fashion.

                   Karen Hooper
                   Latin America Analyst
                   o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                   c: 512.750.7234
                   STRATFOR
                   www.stratfor.com
                   On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                   On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                   Link: themeData

                   Trigger

                   Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
                   Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?,
                   lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
                   statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including
                   a video released depicting...? a person talking? a voice?
                   words on a screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent
                   video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                   criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of
                   Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
                   journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker
                   group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member
                   otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
                   between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
                   unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly
                   different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a
                   conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have little
                   experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no
                   experience with the cartels. I do not believe for a second
                   that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                    

                   In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                   mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                   reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped member
                   this should be mentioned right up front. Cartels have a
                   member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back. Provide
                   enough details so we understand who this guy is and
                   why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims
                   of possessing revealing information on cartel members and
                   operations are true, cartels will likely respond with
                   violence against individuals revealed as opposing cartel
                   members huh? you mean Anonymous members?. It also is
                   likely that public disclosure of GOM officials who collude
                   with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving the
                   Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this
                   means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
                   effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against
                   Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will
                   continue their threats against any individual using online
                   media WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking
                   about bloggers here. against the cartels.

                    

                   The Battle Space

                   Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two
                   separate realities from each other. Anonymous operates
                   solely in sphere of the computer networks. Anonymous does
                   not experience geographical boundaries. All personalities
                   within Anonymous, exist solely in cyber space.  (That is
                   not entirely true. They are physical people tho live in
                   the real world. They have names and addresses - although
                   most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power
                   base consists of their technical capabilities in hacking.
                   Any information connected to the Internet is vulnerable to
                   exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of individual
                   cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population could
                   be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
                   has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or
                   a big company with a website that brings in revenue, but
                   it does not really matter if you don't run operations on
                   the web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They
                   are also far less dependent on the web than the
                   jihadists.)

                   Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's
                   power base consists of the perceived anonymity that its
                   members believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by
                   operating through the internet. This gives an opening for
                   people disgruntled by anything and everything to practice
                   general dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity +
                   audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web of
                   people who identify themselves as "anonymous" have any
                   sort of serious IT capability. 

                   The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has
                   been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

                   The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in
                   US and Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always
                   looking to maximize profits and expand. But they are
                   bricks and mortar commerce. Yes..... but they use the
                   internet to launder money and issue commands. We know that
                   Sinaloa does that from insight. There is no reason to
                   assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity. 
                   Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue and
                   escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
                   experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels
                   are always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel
                   violence. While battling each other, cartels still face
                   arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to
                   avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money,
                   cartels have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists
                   and online bloggers in order to cover details of their
                   operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this
                   discussion. You need to focus on the possible
                   vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
                   have no cyber presence.

                    

                   Anonymous' Weapons

                   Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions
                   against criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous'
                   only ability to combat cartels lay in information
                   operations, mainly disseminating sensitive information on
                   cartels and propagating anti-cartel statements via social
                   media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean so far and
                   that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
                   cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance of
                   a targeted information operations campaign by technically
                   elite individuals can not be overlooked should not be
                   underestimated. Cartels view main stream media outlets and
                   social media blogs as such a threat to their operations,
                   that they have continued to target journalists and
                   bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was
                   placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the
                   body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
                   denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive
                   here, and it's not really addressing the subheading

                   As stated earlier, any information connected to the
                   internet risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample
                   reason to suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing
                   information they threaten to release. By releasing
                   identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
                   cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
                   individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
                   information is limited by what is available via the
                   Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
                   should always be considered a possibility of an attack.
                   However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the US
                   governments computer networks, information available to
                   Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy to
                   acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This isn't
                   clear at all

                    

                   Cartel's Defense

                               A counter response to the video? by the
                   cartels has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous'
                   claims of a kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los
                   Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by hackers
                   so... how has there not been a counter response? also this
                   undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is
                   soley internet based, and underlines the vulnerabilities
                   of associated members. How did they find teh Anonymous
                   member? The answer to that could very well give you some
                   indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
                   Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web
                   , the cartels will face a number of challenges which
                   rarely are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG
                   has whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in
                   cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good intel
                   indicating that) they are working on disrupting the
                   cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in any
                   region of the world. Personal information including
                   locations is only available if a hacker chooses to divulge
                   it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
                   figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous.
                   Cartels are only capable of dealing with their online
                   enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
                   employing hackers of their own under their payroll?
                   Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                               Cartels have been known to coerce the services
                   of Mexican citizens with a technical background.
                   Recruiting the help of computer science majors through
                   personal threats has been reported in the past where? What
                   cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels operate in the
                   world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they will
                   likely need the assistance of technical experts to help
                   combat any threat by computer hackers.  While identifying
                   bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is
                   unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
                   operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies
                   such as the FBi, with far more technical experience and
                   resources than cartels, struggle to find hackers through
                   investigations. A) How do you know they are not in Mexico?
                   (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume
                   that not all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                               In order to compete with an online foe,
                   cartels will likely continue counter tactics they are most
                   familiar with, brute force. Cartels are still capable of
                   their HUMINT operations within Mexico "still"? why would
                   we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged
                   connections to hacker communities will likely be targeted
                   and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and
                   public display of violence will likely continue to be used
                   to scare online media into submission i'm not really
                   seeing the online media-international hacking group
                   connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
                   inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
                   encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
                   cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will
                   remain to be seen until cartels are able to seek out and
                   capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could
                   call the collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off
                   any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-25 00:07:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1011703_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tristan.reed@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1012575</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - RUSSIA/CzR - expelled Russian diplos
</title>
    <description>   Russian bias? never!
   There is a good point that the Soviets prompted the antinuclear movement
   in the West in the 1960s.... it was a movement that wasn't really there
   until they sparked it &amp; that movement is still there today. Russia is good
   at the grassroots movements &amp; what they are doing in CzR makes alot of
   sense.
   This movement against the US radar is a strong one in CzR (was like 68% of
   ppl). It is one of the top issues for a very fragile government..........
   a great move by Moscow.

   Eugene is doing a shorty on this.

   Reva Bhalla wrote:

     hah, love the bias
     On Aug 18, 2009, at 11:11 AM, Aaron Colvin wrote:

        

       CODE: RU101
       PUBLICATION: yes
       ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
       SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Senior within the Kremlin circle  
       SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
       ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
       DISTRIBUTION: Analysts, CT, Briefers
       SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
        
        
       The Czechs are accusing the diplomats of being SVR with the goal of
       influencing public opinion and causing resistance against building of
       the US radar at Brdy. As if the Czechs need any help being against the
       American invasion of their country. Not that a little nudging hurts.
       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       STRATFOR
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-08-18 18:40:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1012575_re-insight-russia-czr-expelled-russian-diplos-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>briefers@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1013806</id>
    <title>Re: Research Request - Europe/MIL - Fighter Jet Market
</title>
    <description>   Attached is my summary of the Dassault and Rafale's place in it.

   The Rafale is not the main component of Dassault's business.  62% of sales
   come from sales of the Falcon business jet. Defense sales make up the
   rest, with 31% from sales to France; while foreign defense sales account
   for only 7%.  However, no Rafales have been sold overseas.  Total sales
   were 3.75 Billion euros in 2008.

   The Rafale was designed primarily for use by the French government, but
   also for export.  They said they tried to develop the fighter to meet
   worldwide, as opposed to strictly western European needs.  As of 2008 120
   Rafales have been ordered by, or delivered to, the French government. 

   Kristen Cooper wrote:

     Just FYI -

     I'm working on the first bullet in the first tranche of questions

     Antonia is taking a look into Saab's situation right now.

     Kristen Cooper wrote:

       Got it.
       On Sep 30, 2009, at 10:20 AM, Nate Hughes wrote:

         Rami can take the lead on this, but we've got a few things on his
         plate today and Marko was hoping to get this rolling ASAP. The
         priority is the first tranche of questions for the initial Gripen
         piece.

         First, for the Gripen piece:
           * A clear understanding of the three offerings before Brazil:
                * What has each offered specifically in terms of price, tech
                  transfer and indigenous assembly/production (not all may be
                  available, but we need to know what's out there --
                  particularly the price drop of the Gripen and price point
                  of the Rafale)
           * Just how dire/desperate is Saab? Are they trying to secure the
             deal in order to secure the deal? Or are they in more dire
             straits than that?
           * Any other takers for the NG? Even follow-on orders or for
             upgrades?
           * What has Saab managed to sell of the Gripen NGs thus far? 
         Overall:
           * A careful look at each company in turn. Obviously we're starting
             with Saab. Dassault next, since I think the Rafale may be in
             worse shape than the Gripen. Eurofighter is the most coherent of
             the three at this point, I believe. For each:
                * brief history of genesis of the program, and the business
                  case for it -- how many was each intending to sell to the
                  primary customer and how many were intended to be sold
                  abroad?
                * In particular, what was the scheme and why did it fail? For
                  example, the Gripen was specifically designed as a low
                  cost, and low-life cycle-cost alternative to the other
                  designs on the market. Supposed to be a solid plane.
                  Certainly not competing directly with the Joint Strike
                  Fighter. What gives? 
                * Let's get a key sense of exactly where each fighter was
                  supposed to be sold... country by country. Marko can then
                  quickly lay out the macroeconomics of why country X or Y
                  could no longer afford this or that fighter. 
                * Key export agreements/failures to secure them. Timeline for
                  each. (I want to be careful about correlation of the Iraq
                  war with the sales of the Gripen. Even if they correlate,
                  that doesn't mean causation necessarily. Let's get dates
                  but also look at the production schedule for the Gripen)
           * Might be good to get a bit of a sense of the evolution of the
             global fighter jet market as a whole, so we can fit European
             efforts in with American and Russian efforts.
           * Can we get a sense of all NEW Jet Fighter orders from 2000
             onwards? I am making 2000 up as arbitrary number... but it would
             be good to get a really detailed excel worksheet going with ALL
             fighter jet sales. Let's concentrate first on NEW fighters, not
             repurchased, since that will make things easier and we can
             decide if we need repurchased later. There has to be a study out
             there on this. 
           * Let's see if we can't dig up some analysis of this situation.
             We're not the first to contemplate this. What are industry rags
             and European circles saying about it?
         -- 
         Nathan Hughes
         Director of Military Analysis
         STRATFOR
         512.744.4300 ext. 4097
         nathan.hughes@stratfor.com

 --
 Kristen Cooper
 Researcher
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com
 512.744.4093 - office
 512.619.9414 - cell
 kristen.cooper@stratfor.com

 --
 Matthew Powers
 STRATFOR Intern
 Matthew.Powers@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-09-30 22:44:11</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1013806_re-research-request-europe-mil-fighter-jet-market-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kristen.cooper@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>matthew.powers@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>researchers@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/97/97874_Dassault Company Summary.doc</path><size>92160</size><md5></md5><sha1>37ee31aa5330f1a73979a0804cbfeb1cabe5a522</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1015294</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat
</title>
    <description>   Any thoughts on where you guys are thinking of going with this?

   Der Spiegel article is indeed interesting.

   On 11/22/10 9:28 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     Great report from Der Spiegel (thanks Mikey).  I suggest anyone
     interested to read the whole thing.  They ask the right questions, and
     while not as much detail as I hoped, give us a much better understanding
     on the threat in Germany. 

     The BKA (germany's FBI) must be extremely busy verifying the details of
     this virtual walk-in.  It obviously caused the germans to shit their
     pants.  But the real questions are buried in the article---how real was
     this plot, how real is the source, is the source just trying to get back
     to the land of brezeln and bier? Trying to double-cross them somehow?

     Also note the tip off from the FBI (cue fred), not the usual CIA liaison
     with BND. 

     For Eurasia, there's a lot in here on the internal politics of the
     interior minister position, and the relation between state and federal
     government. 

     On 11/22/10 8:55 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

       -------- Original Message --------

        Subject: [OS] GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat 
           Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 08:38:21 -0600                          
           From: Graham Smith &lt;graham.smith@stratfor.com&gt;                 
       Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                            
             To: os@stratfor.com                                          

        11/22/2010 11:38 AM
       Fears of a Mumbai Redux
       The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat

       http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,730377,00.html
       By Matthias Bartsch, Yassin Musharbash and Holger Stark

       Germany is currently in a state of high alert. Security officials are
       warning that they have concrete information pointing to a possible
       terror attack on the federal parliament building in Berlin, a
       massively popular tourist attraction. The days of Interior Minister
       Thomas de Maiziere's reserved stances in dealing with such warnings
       appear to be over.

       The call came from abroad, and the man speaking hurriedly on the other
       end of the line sounded as if he feared for his life. He wanted out,
       he told the officers of the German Federal Criminal Police Office
       (BKA) -- out of the terrorist scene. He wanted to come back to
       Germany, back to his family. Then he asked if German officials could
       help him.

       Right now, they're trying to do just that. The BKA is pursuing the
       case under the codename "Nova." The apparently remorseful man could be
       an important possible whistleblower from a dangerous region of the
       globe. In fact, he is also the most recent reason why German Interior
       Minister Thomas de Maiziere put the entire country in a state of
       fright on Wednesday.

       During a hastily called press conference that day, de Maiziere stated
       that Germany faced the threat of terrorist attacks that might be
       launched against the country at some point in November. As he put it,
       Germany is "presently dealing with a new situation."
       Just two days earlier, the source had called for the third time in
       just a short period and provided more information. He told officials
       that a small group of terrorists wanted to conduct a raid on the
       Reichstag building in Berlin, which houses the federal parliament, and
       that that was only one of the targets included in their attack plans.

       Germany on High Alert

       Since then, Germany has been in a state of high alert. The Reichstag
       is surrounded with barricades and its popular cupola tourist
       attraction temporarily closed to visitors. Police armed with
       submachine guns are patrolling major railway stations and airports.
       And vacations have been called off for officials at the country's
       security agencies. Wherever they have cause for doing so, the
       authorities are secretly monitoring communications, conducting
       surveillance operations and launching undercover investigations. At
       the moment, investigators seem to be at a loss; their modus operandi:
       "We'll prod the shrubs and see if we can flush out any birds."

       "There is cause for worry, but no cause for hysteria," de Maiziere
       assured his listeners. But while he has never been much of an
       agitator, his colleagues at the state level have described the
       situation in much more drastic terms. Uwe Schu:nemann, for example,
       who has been the interior minister of the northwestern state of Lower
       Saxony since 2003, stated that he had "never experienced a heightened
       security situation like this one." And Berlin Senator for the Interior
       Ehrhart Ko:rting, whose position is tantamount to that of a government
       minister in the city-state, has already even gone so far as to call on
       the inhabitants of the German capital city to report
       suspicious-looking individuals of Arab origin to the police. "If you
       suddenly see three somewhat strange-looking men who are new to your
       neighborhood, who hide their faces and who only speak Arabic,"
       Ko:rting said, "you should report them to the authorities."

       Under heightened pressure, officials in Germany's 16 federal states
       are now checking to see when and where major events are scheduled to
       take place this coming week within their boundaries. And nothing
       suggested as a possible target is being discounted, no matter how
       unlikely. For example, officials in Rhineland-Palatinate warned the
       state's interior minister, Karl Peter Burch, that there was always a
       lot going on at IKEA stores on Saturdays.[WTF]

       Serenity, Scaremongering and Strategy

       Since last week, German politicians at both the state and federal
       levels have once again had to figure out how they will handle
       themselves when making warnings about terrorist attacks. They have had
       to come up with a language that can simultaneously convey both an
       alert and a sense of calm.

       This is no easy task. For one thing, this isn't the first time this
       has happened. In September 2009, for example, right before federal
       elections were held, there were concrete threats that resulted in a
       heightened security situation. But, in the end, nothing happened. This
       time around, people are wondering whether they are on the precipice of
       an emergency or whether these are once again empty threats.

       Still, one thing is certain: For the time being, Germany has become a
       different country -- more nervous, more anxious, more agitated. And
       Germany's domestic security policies are being put to the test.

       When Interior Minister de Maiziere assumed his office in October 2009
       in conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel's government, he aimed to
       cool down the heated sense of alarm regularly fanned out by his
       predecessors. What's more, the man who had served as Merkel's chief of
       staff in Chancellery until being moved to the role of interior
       minister in her new government, was given the task of nurturing a more
       relaxed relationship between her party, the Christian Democratic Union
       (CDU), and its new coalition partner, the business-friendly Free
       Democratic Party (FDP). In particular, it was his job to not draw out
       the long-standing conflict over domestic security policies with the
       Justice Ministry, which has been led since the 2009 election by Sabine
       Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, a member of the FDP. Indeed, Merkel
       feared that the quarrelsome FDP might try to capitalize on the issue
       to win over more voters, so she assigned de Maiziere to prevent that
       from happening.

       In fact, the plan was to repeat the same strategy that the CDU and its
       Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), had used when
       they were in the so-called "grand coalition" with the center-left
       Social Democratic Party, between 2005 and 2009. At the time, they made
       a point of undermining the SPD by championing what had traditionally
       been the latter party's issues.

       A Game-Changer

       But now the game plan has changed. This November will drastically
       alter de Maiziere's understanding of his role in office. If he tries
       to return things to their previous state of calm, he's going to have a
       very tough time. In fact, it's much more likely that he will be a
       completely different interior minister.

       For a while now, de Maiziere's softer stance has prompted opposition
       by politicians on the right involved with domestic security issues.
       But they are now calling louder than ever for a tougher course to be
       followed. Merkel is also adjusting to the new situation and is
       reportedly happy with the way de Maiziere handled himself last week.
       Likewise, no one seems to have voiced any criticism last Thursday
       evening during a meeting of the Coalition Committee, a regular
       gathering of the parties that are part of the government.

       The almost complete lack of protest has a lot to do with where the
       alarming information is coming from. In fact, information regarding
       the supposedly imminent attacks has come from two independent sources.
       Shortly before receiving the telephone call about the planned attacks,
       BKA officials had received a cable from their American counterparts at
       the FBI, America's federal police force, warning of possible attacks.

       Still, what truth is there in these "security-related" pieces of
       information coming from both domestic and foreign sources? And, given
       all the discrepancies in the warning messages, just how much do they
       deserve to be trusted? Indeed, even among security officials
       themselves, there is some doubt about how legitimate these statements
       are -- and about just how acute the danger threatening Germany really
       is.

       An Attack Modelled after Mumbai[plot details in this section]
       What the caller reported was undeniably alarming. According to him,
       al-Qaida and associated groups based in Pakistan were making joint
       preparations for an attack in Germany. One idea was to remotely
       detonate a bomb using a mobile phone. Another called for a small group
       of terrorists to storm the Reichstag with guns blazing, take hostages
       and end everything in one calamitous bloodbath. Indeed, BKA officials
       learned that the latter plan had been modeled on the storming of
       luxury hotels in Mumbai, the Indian capital, almost exactly two years
       ago, in a massacre that left 175 people dead.

       According to the caller, the plan called for the terrorists to procure
       the submachine guns, automatic rifles, explosives and whatever else
       they would need to storm Germany's parliament building in the Balkans.
       He said that two men had already traveled to Germany six to eight
       weeks earlier, adding that one had the nom de guerre of "Abu Mohammed"
       and that the other one was a German of Turkish origin. Both apparently
       had roots in the Greater Berlin metropolitan area, were currently
       unemployed and living off of welfare payments and had immersed
       themselves in the anonymity provided by a major city -- until the time
       should come for their activation.

       Likewise, there were allegedly four other volunteers -- including a
       German, a Turk, a North African and another jihadist of unknown
       identity -- in the training camps run by al-Qaida and related groups
       waiting for the signal to travel to Germany. And, according to the
       telephone source, al-Qaida's plan was to attack in February or March.
       The only question now relates to just how credible the caller's
       statements are. He is an insider who joined up with armed groups
       several months ago and has earned a reputation as a fanatic fighter.
       But could it be that he is only trying to tell German officials the
       juiciest things possible in order to raise his own market value and
       thereby prompt them to extract him from the terror scene? Or could it
       be that al-Qaida is even planning a second spectacular coup like the
       one in December 2009, when the Americans allowed a supposedly
       top-level turncoat onto an American military base without any sort of
       pat-down, who went on to detonate his explosive vest and blow seven
       CIA officials to bits?

       A Strange Message

       A clear picture has yet to emerge. And one reason for this is also the
       fact that it was only two weeks ago that the FBI first decided to
       share information about another possible attack with German officials.

       In this case, even the way contact was made was unusual. Under normal
       circumstances, liaisons from the CIA station in Germany are the ones
       to communicate American warnings to their German counterparts. But,
       this time around, it was an apparently particularly anxious FBI that
       chose to directly notify the BKA.
       The FBI told the Germans about an obscure Indian group called "Saif,"
       or "sword." Despite being a Shiite group, it had allegedly made a pact
       with al-Qaida, a Sunni organization, and sent five of its men to the
       Pakistani province of Waziristan for training. According to the FBI,
       two volunteers -- who were already equipped with visas allowing them
       to travel freely within the 25 European countries belonging to the
       Schengen zone -- were supposedly already en route to Germany and would
       enter the United Arab Emirates on Monday, Nov. 22. There, they would
       allegedly be provided with new travel documents before traveling on to
       Germany. One of the men is supposedly named "Khan," which is about as
       common in that part of the world as "Smith" is in English-speaking
       countries. And no firm conclusion had been made about their
       nationalities.

       The FBI agents even named the presumed masterminds behind the
       operation. A certain Mushtaq Altaf Bin-Khadri, who is in charge of
       finances and training for "Saif," allegedly dispatched the terrorist
       squad. But the FBI was not in a position to comment on the targets of
       the two men in Germany.

       One name came up time and again in the communique, and one that
       pricked the Germans' ears: Dawood Ibrahim. The 54-year-old arms trader
       is "India's most-wanted man." The US government has listed him as a
       "global terrorist" and persuaded the United Nations to place his name
       on a list of supporters of terror. Ibrahim is rumored to be the head
       of D-Company, a criminal syndicate named after himself, and is
       believed to be in charge of smuggling the suspected terrorists into
       Germany.

       Both the FBI and the BKA are attaching a lot of importance to the
       information in the FBI communique. But the intelligence services of
       the two countries -- the CIA in the United States and the BND and
       Office for the Protection of the Constitution in Germany, the
       country's foreign and domestic intelligence agencies, respectively --
       point to internal contradictions as reasons for their skepticism. As
       they see it, for example, it is highly unlikely that a Shiite group
       would team up with Sunni terrorists, especially since a good part of
       al-Qaida propaganda vilifies Shiites. Other reasons for doubt include
       the facts that none of the intelligence agencies was previously
       familiar with an organization called "Saif," that there have been no
       previously recorded threats against Germany by Indian extremists, and
       that the whole scenario seems rather implausible.

       On the other hand, the FBI information is uncommonly concrete. In
       addition to the names of the suspects, it also provides information
       about the exact day on which they are supposed to arrive in the United
       Arab Emirates. Moreover, Ibrahim is believed to be one of the men
       behind the terror attacks in Mumbai. If he really is involved, that
       alone would be reason enough for worry.

       Abnormal Circumstances

       Under normal circumstances, a message of this kind from the United
       States would no doubt be cause for serious-minded scrutiny, but it
       would not be a cause for alarm. For example, the BKA would go through
       all recent visa applications, and federal police officers would take a
       closer look at all the people entering Germany from Arab states. And
       the intelligence services would make the rounds to see if any of its
       partners had any helpful information on the matter.

       Indeed, under normal circumstances, there are always a lot of these
       communiques, most of which turn out to be false alarms. But these are
       no normal circumstances. Germany is in a state of emergency. Other
       countries, such as the United States, employ a system of official
       warning levels based on color codes that change -- from yellow to
       orange, for example -- when the danger level is thought to increase.
       But, in Germany, the interior minister is the barometer: He consults
       with experts -- and then it is he who must call the shots.

       For the minister, a situation like this presents a dilemma. If he
       remains silent and something happens, he's a failure. If he makes loud
       warning and nothing happens, he's just a rabble-rouser trying to push
       through controversial tougher security laws. And, of course, the
       public never thanks you if everyday life continues in a normal,
       peaceful way.

       Absolute Security Remains a Pipe Dream

       When de Maiziere became Germany's interior minister, he had planned to
       lead the ministry in a level-headed way. For example, he prefers to
       use phrases such as "internal calm" rather than "internal security."
       And it was only six weeks ago that he uttered the sentence: "There's
       no cause for alarm." But, since then, the chorus of warning voices has
       only ballooned in size.

       This change in course is the combined result of everything that
       happened beforehand. It might very well turn out that the alleged
       Indian terror squad stays home and that the raid on the Reichstag
       never happens. But what will remain is a well-founded supposition that
       there is a critical mass of terrorists in the border region between
       Afghanistan and Pakistan that is thinking about launching attacks in
       Europe -- and certainly in Germany, as well.

       Raw Nerves

       Given such circumstances, there is a major sense of alarm among German
       officials. Last Thursday, just a day after de Maiziere's shocking
       press conference, the BKA issued a press release "in connection with
       the current high-risk situation." It reported that a piece of
       suspicious luggage had been discovered a day earlier in Windhoek, the
       capital of Namibia, before being loaded onto a plane bound for
       Germany. The laptop bag contained batteries, wires, a detonator and a
       clock -- in other words, all the ingredients you need for a potential
       airborne catastrophe.

       It sounded as if another terror plot had been foiled. Had there been a
       plan to blow up Air Berlin Flight 7377 en route to Munich? And had the
       authorities, yet again, discovered an explosive device at the last
       minute? In the end, all the worry was unfounded. As it turned out, the
       piece of luggage was a test device built by a company that designs
       "real test" suitcases to be used to test security measures. It remains
       unclear who checked the bag in. But the fact that the BKA was so quick
       to go into alarm mode -- and publicly so -- has been a communications
       debacle.

       Of course, these days, nobody wants to be the one that wasn't
       sufficiently circumspect, the one who took too long to speak up. No
       one wants a replay of situations like the one from the beginning of
       November, when de Maiziere didn't know for hours whether the package
       that had arrived at the Chancellery contained actual explosives or was
       just a false alarm. Now, the threshold for sounding the alarm is
       already much lower.

       Bonded by Fear

       Of course, you can never be too sure. Over the last 12 months, a
       series of attacks concocted in the Afghan-Pakistani border region have
       been foiled in the West. For example, in May, a car bomb set in New
       York's Times Square by a man with ties to the Pakistani Taliban failed
       to properly detonate. In Copenhagen, al-Qaida had made plans to storm
       the offices of the Jyllands-Posten newspaper as revenge for its 2005
       publishing of caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad. In October 2009,
       David Headley, an American citizen with Pakistani roots, was arrested
       after having already visited the newspaper's offices in order to scout
       them out before the planned attack. Other targets reportedly included
       the subway systems of New York City and Washington.

       On the other hand, absolute security is a pipe dream. For example,
       British authorities had even conducted rehearsals for how to respond
       to possible attacks. But, even so, when attacks claiming 56 lives
       (including those of four attackers) did strike London, on July 7,
       2005, they were unable to prevent them. Likewise, US intelligence
       services had warned India a number of times that terrorists were
       planning attacks in Mumbai.

       The new situation in Germany has at least had one positive side
       effect: For the time being, the traditionally quarrelsome interior
       ministers from both the state and the federal levels have refrained
       from their usual bickering. Following informal talks held last
       Thursday in Hamburg, Minister Bruch of Rhineland-Palatinate noted that
       he had "never experienced such harmony within this group" that has
       apparently been bonded together by their shared fear.

       Translated from the German by Josh Ward

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

   --

   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

   Marko Papic

   Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

   STRATFOR

   700 Lavaca Street - 900

   Austin, Texas

   78701 USA

   P: + 1-512-744-4094

   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-22 17:34:28</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1015294_re-discussion-germany-ct-the-story-behind-germany-s-terror.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1016280</id>
    <title>G3 - GERMANY - Berlin asks NATO partners to keep quiet on deadly
	bombing
</title>
    <description>   example of pissed iron frau

   ----- Forwarded Message -----
   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "watchofficer" &lt;watchofficer@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 7:17:01 AM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: G3 - GERMANY - Berlin asks NATO partners to keep quiet on deadly
   bombing

   Berlin asks NATO partners to keep quiet on deadly bombing

   Published: 11 Sep 09 09:00 CET
   Online: http://www.thelocal.de/national/20090911-21857.html

   The German government has issued a round of formal diplomatic protests to
   fellow NATO countries, asking them to refrain from criticising a
   controversial air strike called by the Bundeswehr in Afghanistan last
   week.

   The Foreign Ministry told daily Financial Times Deutschland on Friday that
   German ambassadors had issued the demarches in NATO allied countries. The
   formal protests asked that officials wait until the NATO probe of the
   incident had concluded before commenting on the deadly bombing.

   In Paris the protest was not well-received, the paper said.

   a**What should a minister say if such an attack kills 80 and there are
   civilians among them? Nothing?a** an unnamed diplomat told the paper.

   On Tuesday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel rejected a**prejudgementa** of
   the air strike in a speech to parliament.

   Merkel assured the bombing of two fuel trucks in the northern part of the
   country last Friday would be thoroughly investigated amid concerns it
   caused scores of civilian casualties.

   She lashed out at widespread criticism by many of Germanya**s closes
   allies before NATO's International Security Assistance Force (ISAF)
   completed its investigation of the incident.

   a**I wona**t tolerate that either here at home or abroad,a** she said.

   The German government and military have faced immense pressure in recent
   days after Col. Georg Klein called in NATO air support to destroy two fuel
   tankers hijacked by the Taliban near the Afghan city of Kunduz. Berlin at
   first contended that only Islamist insurgents had been killed in the air
   strike, but ISAF announced shortly after Merkel's speech that there had
   been an unspecified number of civilian victims.

   French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner has described the strike as a
   "big mistake" while Afghan President Hamid Karzai blasted the German
   commander's call in an interview with French daily Le Figaro: "What an
   error of judgement!"

   http://www.thelocal.de/national/20090911-21857.html

    
</description>
    <date>2009-09-11 14:31:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-08 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1016280_g3-germany-berlin-asks-nato-partners-to-keep-quiet-on-deadly.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1016341</id>
    <title>Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta conflict
	in context
</title>
    <description>   Just to build on my last comment - and I think this should be included in
   the piece - the cartels could just as easily try to intimidate would be
   sources ratting to anonymous as intimidate bloggers. Imagine if, after
   anonymous publishes a few juicy tidbits, Zetas hang a few headless bodies
   from a bridge accusing them of contributing to anonymous? True or not,
   cartels can intimidate both sides of the information flow and the sources
   may be more vulnerable than anonymous themselves.

   Still think a discussion of Anonymous and source handling would be pretty
   cool.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Ben West" &lt;ben.west@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 5:42:42 PM
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict        in context

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 4:45:43 PM
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict        in context

   On 11/1/11 1:11 PM, scott stewart wrote:

      Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta Conflict in Context

     On Oct. 31, the online activist collective Anonymous posted a message to
     the internet  in which it stated that it was continuing with its
     campaign against the Mexican criminal cartels and their
     governmentsupporters despite the inherent danger.

      

     The messageurged inexperienced activists who might not be practicing
     proper online security measures to abstain from participating. It also
     urged individuals associated with Anonymous to not conduct physical
     pamphlet drops, participate in protests, wear or purchase Guy Fawkes
     masks, or use Guy Fawkes imagery in their internet or physical world
     activities.[Is this universally or just in Mexico?  The former points to
     problems with LE cracking down on them, the latter specifically to
     cartel retribution]  Guy Fawkes was British Catholic conspirator who was
     involved in a plot to bomb the British Parliament in 1605, and who has
     become somewhat of an Anarchist icon in the United Kingdom. The British
     celebrate Guy Fawkes Day each year on Nov. 5, and the day has special
     meaning for the anarchists.  

      

     It is not coincidental then, that in their Oct. 6 video, Anonymous set
     Nov. 5 as the deadline for Los Zetas to release the Anonymous associate
     who was allegedly kidnapped in Veracruz by Los Zetas. The Anonymous
     associate was reportedly abducted during an Anonymous leaflet campaign
     called Operation Paperstorm.

      

     The Oct. 31message acknowledged that the operation against Los Zetas,
     dubbed a**# OpCartela** is dangerous and noted that the collective would
     be assembling a hand-picked group of known and trusted associates to
     participate in a special task force to execute the operation.[hahahaha,
     this says something about leadership] It asked supporters to use a
     software widget[WC. is this the correct term?] they had developed in
     order to anonymously pass information pertaining to drug trafficking to
     the task force, which will then distribute it. 

      

     With Nov. 5, approaching, and at least some elements of Anonymous not
     backing down on their threats to Los Zetas, we thought it would be
     useful to provide some context to the present conflict between Anonymous
     and Los Zetas and to also address some of its potential implications.

      

     Context

      

     First it issignificant to understand that the physical? geographic?
     epicenter of this event is Veracruz, which  has been a very busy place
     over the past few months in terms of Mexicoa**s cartel wars. The port
     city also serves as a critical transportation hub for the narcotics
     smuggling activities of the Los Zetas cartel. Because of this, Stratfor
     has identified Veracruz as [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111024-mexican-drug-war-update-polarization-continues
     ] a bellweather city thatwill help determine the trajectory of the Los
     Zetas cartel in the coming months. 

      

     One of the big recent developments in Veracruz was the Sinaloa
     cartela**s push into the Zeta stronghold using the [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110928-mexico-security-memo-zetas-defensive-veracruz
     ] Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), which using the name
     Matazetas (Zeta killers) conducted some high-profile body dumps of over
     50 alleged low-level Zeta operatives on Sept. 20 and 22.  On Oct. 25,
     Mexican Marines arrested Carlos Arturo Pitalua-Carillo, a**El Bam
     Bam,a** who was Los Zetas plaza boss in Veracruz.  This means that in
     Veracruz at the present time, Los Zetas are feeling pressure from both
     the Government of Mexico and the CJNG.

      

     Into this dynamic flow, we had the Anonymous internet collective begin
     to take action in Veracruz in August. In response to what Anonymous saw
     as the state of Veracruz supporting the Los Zetas cartel, they launched
     Operation Paperstorm, in which activists who associated themselves with
     the Anonymous collective distributed leaflets throughout Veracruz
     claiming the state government supports Los Zetas.  They conducted major
     leaflet distributions on Aug. 13, 20, and 29. They also released videos
     to the internet on Aug. 26 and 29, condemning the State of Veracruz.
     (According to the Oct. 6 Anonymous video, Los Zetas allegedly kidnapped
     one of the activists involved in Operation Paperstorm.)

      

     Activities outside of Veracruz have also played a part in setting the
     stage. On Sept. 13, two people were tortured and killed and their bodies
     hung from a pedestrianoverpass in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state.  Signs
     left with the bodies signified that Los Zetas had killed the pair
     because they had posted information pertaining to Los Zetas on blogs
     that specialize in reporting on the Mexican cartels. On Sept 26, the
     body of Marisol Macias Casteneda was found beheaded in a park in Nuevo
     Laredo.   Macias who worked for a local newspaper allegedly posted on
     cartel blogs using the nickname a**Laredo Girl.a** A message found with
     her body noted that she was killed by Los Zetas due to her online
     activities.

      

     Following the death of Laredo Girl, Anonymous claimed responsibility for
     a distributed denial of service (DDOS) attack conducted against the
     official website of the state of Veracruz. Although she was killed by
     Los Zetas in Nuevo Laredo Tamaulipas, Anonymous said their attack on the
     Veracruz state website was because of the death of Laredo Girl. [can you
     attempt to explain why they linked it with veracruz?]

      

     It is also important to recognize that some members of Anonymous [again
     I hate referring to Anonymous as one entity] was also unhappy with the
     State of Veracruz over the decision of the state to prosecute two
     individuals who had posted false kidnapping reports on Twitter on Aug.
     25. The false reports alleged that a group of children had been abducted
     from a Veracruz school and the panic caused by the report allegedly
     resulted in some two dozen traffic accidents as terrified parents rushed
     to the school to check o n their children. The so-called a**twitter
     terroristsa** were initially charged with offenses that could have
     carried a 30-year sentence. Those involved in this campaign from
     Anonymous, which claims absolute freedom of speech on the internet as
     one of its foundational principles, took umbrage with this stiff penalty
     for the Twitter case a** especially because it stood in stark contrast
     with the impunity many cartel figures enjoy in Mexico. 

      

      

     Following the Oct. 6 release of the video in which Anonymous threatened
     Los Zetas if they did not release the kidnapped anonymous activist,
     Stratfor began to focus on the story, and in light of the approaching
     Nov. 5 deadline, decided to publish an, [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111028-mexicos-cartels-draw-online-activists-ire
     ] analysis of the topic, which was released on Oct. 28.  

      

     Following the release of our analysis, the topic has received a great
     deal of media coverage. This publicity has generated a very interesting
     response from Anonymous -- one that emphasizes the fast that it is a
     collective of people and not an organization.  As some
     Anonymousactivists were backing off the issue, erasing online user
     accounts[does this mean accounts of people in support of the attack?],
     suggesting that the operation against Los Zetas had been a hoax and
     claiming that no activist had been kidnapped, other activists suggested
     that the campaign should be suspended. Still other activists became more
     strident and determined in their posts, urging that the campaign
     continue. Since Anonymous is a collective, activists can pick and choose
     which actions they will participate in. that means in his case that
     those activists who want to refrain from the campaign will and those who
     want to participate will continue it.  [i see how this paragraph fits
     into your analysis the way you have it written, but I think it might go
     better at the front.  You could use the 'anonymous discussion' as a
     trigger, explain it's "collective" qualities and then go into the rest
     of the analysis.  This way I feel much less bad about how we refer to
     'anonymous']

      

     This will to continue was manifested[something is off in the previous
     part of the sentence] on Oct. 29, the personal website of Gustavo
     RosarioTorres, the former attorney general of the Mexican state of
     Tobasco was hacked and defaced with a message from Anonymous Mexico
     stating that Rosario was aZeta.  It was also reflected in the tone of
     the Oct. 31 message. Some activists associated with Anonymous clearly
     feel compelled to continue with the campaign due to the outpouring[WC. 
     Did they really get an outpouring? seemed like they got a lot of
     criticism and also support for going against the cartels] of public
     support they received in the wake of the media coverage. According to
     the Oct 31. Video statement: (did we see specific examples of "public
     support" or are we just going off of the youtube statement CLAIMING that
     they got lots of support?)

      

     a**we received many expressions of support and solidarity as well as the
     voices of people crying for help. We must remember that we are on the
     side of the people, and we cannot let down the people, especially in
     critical moments like the one they currently live in.a**

      

     We therefore anticipate that some Anonymous activists will continue the
     campaign. We also believe that Los Zetas will respond.

      

     Revenge of the Sith (Yes Kamran, I agree with Isa that Star Wars is
     better than Star Trek. What's Star Trek?) 

      

     The variouscartel groups in Mexico have long used the internet as a
     place to trumpet their triumphs on the battlefield and to taunt and even
     degrade their enemies. The cartels have posted videos of them torturing,
     executing and beheading members of opposing cartels. They also
     frequently monitor narco blogs and sometimeseven post on them.  As
     demonstrated by the blogger killings in Nuevo Laredo in September, Los
     Zetas appear to possess at least some rudimentary capability to trace
     online activity to people in thephysical world. It is not known if they
     employ their own team of dedicated cyber experts or if they rely on
     sources within the Mexican government a** although the most likely
     answer is probably a little of both.  [what about just old-fashioned
     human intelligence?  Many people discuss blogger identities both online
     and offline, something they could've picked up without network-based
     forensics.  'My brother blogs about...' and on from there.  Or by
     tracing the information the blogger had in the real world, and
     eventually getting back to the blogger]

   Tristan was talking about how the cartels were even kidnapping computer
   science students and forcing them to track anonymous down. Need to check
   with him on specifics though

      

      

     In past Anonymous actions, like the Dec. 2010 attack against Pay Pal
     following the Wikileaks case, governments in the U.S. and the UK have
     arrested numerous individuals associated with Anonymous who allegedly
     participated in the attack. In June 2011, Turkey arrested dozens of
     activists associated with Anonymousactions conducted against the Turkish
     government for its efforts to establish a national internet filtering
     system. [Need something to make a point here, maybe something like:] 
     The reality is that there is no such thing as anonymity, on the internet
     or otherwise.  Any action leaves some trail, whether digitial or
     physical.  In the same way that hackers from Anonymous develop exploits
     to access confidential information, law enforcement agencies and even
     cartels could get around encryption, examine patterns of activity and
     investigate leads that in the end identify a real person behind a
     computer. 

      

     Los Zetas, like the other Mexican cartels, do not take affronts lightly.
     Even if Anonymous is not able to provide information that will damage
     Los Zetas smuggling operations, the very fact that this group has
     decided to challenge Los Zetas publicly will result in some sort of
     response. The big question is: do theypossess the capability to
     effectively trace the organizers of the Anonymousaction against them?

      

     One problem with an entity such as Anonymous is that it is intentionally
     amorphous a** it is also as transnational as the internet, and it would
     not be surprising if many of those chosen to participate in the
     operation against Los Zetas are located outside of Mexico in locations
     such as the U.S. and Europe which are outside the immediate reach of Los
     Zetas.(the US is not out of reach, at least not on the border:
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111005-mexico-security-memo-defining-cross-border-violence)

      

     But the amorphous nature of Anonymous can also cut the other way.  If
     Los Zetas pick up and execute some random patrons from an internet cafe,
     behead them and place Guy Fawkesmasks on their heads, it will be very
     difficult to prove that they were not  associated with  Anonymous.  As
     Anonymous noted in their Oct. 31 video, this is dangerous business.(it
     would certainly be within the cartel's capacity to kill innocents and
     blame anonymous in the attempt to intimidate them into stopping their
     activity)

      

      

     The Big Picture

      

     One thing to watch as the Anonymous operation continues is the way in
     which the Mexican public reacts. Many people in the Mexican middle and
     upper classes have been deeply affected by the criminal cartels and
     theviolence the practice. We talk to many people in Mexico who are
     fearful of being kidnapped. In many communities, especially places like
     Juarez, Torreon, Monterrey and Veracruz, businessmen are being caught in
     a terrible bind. On one hand, they are receiving ever-increasing
     extortion demands from the cartels, while at the same time their
     business revenues are dwindling because people are afraid to go out due
     to the violence associated with those same cartels. This is forcing many
     businessmen[enterprises?] out of business. It is also creating a great
     deal of frustration and resentment.

      

     At the same time, Mexico has become one of the most dangerous countries
     in the world for journalists, and many media organizations practice
     heavy self-censorship to protect themselves. In the wake of the
     September blogger killings some of the narco blogs, like Blog del Narco,
     have also exhibited strong signs of fear inspired self-censorship.  
     This means that the legitimate press is not able to be of any real aid
     to the Mexican people.

      

     Mexican citizens are also frustrated with their government, which is
     well-known for corruption.  This is the sentiment feeding Anonymousa**
     original campaign in Veracruz.  This frustration has lead some people to
     begin to talk about

     vigilante groups to fight the cartels a** though that has been attempted
     before in Mexico and as we saw in the case of [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090714_mexico_la_familia_michoacana_expands_its_attacks
     ] La Familia MichoacA!n, which originally began as such a vigilante
     group, vigilantism frequently does not end well.

      

     This is where Anonymous may fit in. With Mexican citizens unable to rely
     on their government, the media or even armed vigilante groups for
     assistance, they may embrace Anonymous and come to view its form of
     cyber vigilantism as an outlet for their frustration -- and a perceived
     safe way to pass oninformation pertaining to cartel activities.  If this
     occurs, we may see people not just in Veracruz and other Zeta controlled
     areas providing information to Anonymous, but citizens from all over the
     country.

      

     Also, in the same way that cartels leak information togovernments in an
     effort to use them as weapons against their rivals, we could also very
     well see groups such as the Sinaloa cartel provide information on Los
     Zetas to Anonymous. This of course would provide even more reason for
     Los Zetas to strike out against the activist collective.

      

     If the Anonymous information campaign does indeed take off, and if
     Anonymous is attacked by Los Zetas, the activists could resort to
     releasing sensitive information to the U.S. Drug Enforcement
     Administration in an attempt to damage Los Zetas. This would be an
     incredible irony in light of the way Anonymous has viewed itself as an
     opponent of the U.S. government in cases like Wikileaks. (Anonymous has
     made it clear that the value they provide is a safe and private medium
     through which to pass this damning information. Their stated priority is
     to publicize information that people send to them. But, do they have a
     way to protect their sources? They likely don't have much collective
     experience in source handling. I imagine a lot of the details they get
     could put their sources in serious trouble. If I were a semi-smart
     Mexican who knew some super detailed information on the cartels, I would
     think long and hard before handing it over to these guys. This may be a
     separate piece entirely, but I think we need a discussion on source
     handling and how good hackers don't necessarily make good intelligence
     agents.)

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   STRATFOR

   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967

   www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-01 23:46:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1016341_re-s-weekly-for-comment-placing-the-anonymous-vs-zeta.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ben.west@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1016464</id>
    <title>Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta conflict
	in context
</title>
    <description>   Cool piece, comments and questions within

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Nate Hughes" &lt;nate.hughes@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 3:38:44 PM
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict        in context

   On 11/1/11 1:11 PM, scott stewart wrote:

      Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta Conflict in Context

     On Oct. 31, the online activist collective Anonymous posted a message to
     the internet  in which it stated that it was continuing with its
     campaign against the Mexican criminal cartels and their
     governmentsupporters despite the inherent danger.

      

     The messageurged inexperienced activists who might not be practicing
     proper online security measures to abstain from participating. It also
     urged individuals associated with Anonymous to not conduct physical
     pamphlet drops, participate in protests, wear or purchase Guy Fawkes
     masks, or use Guy Fawkes imagery in their internet or physical world
     activities.  Guy Fawkes was British Catholic conspirator who was
     involved in a plot to bomb the British Parliament in 1605, and who has
     become somewhat of an Anarchist icon in the United Kingdom. The British
     celebrate Guy Fawkes Day each year on Nov. 5, and the day has special
     meaning for the anarchists.  

      

     It is not coincidental then, that in their Oct. 6 video, Anonymous set
     Nov. 5 as the deadline for Los Zetas to release the Anonymous associate
     who was allegedly kidnapped in Veracruz by Los Zetas. The Anonymous
     associate was reportedly abducted during an Anonymous leaflet campaign
     called Operation Paperstorm Also you might want to add the date he was
     picked up.

      

     The Oct. 31message acknowledged that the operation against Los Zetas,
     dubbed a**# OpCartela** no space. also, make it clear that this is a
     hashmark associated with twitter tagging (not looking to harp on it, but
     we need to show that we're aware of what that is with at least a
     parenthetical) is dangerous and noted that the collective would be
     assembling a hand-picked group of known and trusted associates to
     participate in a special task force to execute the operation. It asked
     supporters to use a software widget they had developed in order to
     anonymously pass information pertaining to drug trafficking to the task
     force, which will then distribute it. 

      

     With Nov. 5, approaching, and at least some elements of Anonymous not
     backing down on their threats to Los Zetas, we thought it would be
     useful to provide some context to the present conflict between Anonymous
     and Los Zetas and to also address some of its potential implications.

      

     Context

      

     First it issignificant to understand that the epicenter of this event is
     Veracruz, which  has been a very busy place over the past few months in
     terms of Mexicoa**s cartel wars. The port city also serves as a critical
     transportation hub for the narcotics smuggling activities of the Los
     Zetas cartel. Because of this, Stratfor has identified Veracruz as [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111024-mexican-drug-war-update-polarization-continues
     ] a bellweather city thatwill help determine the trajectory of the Los
     Zetas cartel in the coming months. 

      

     One of the big recent developments in Veracruz was the Sinaloa
     cartela**s push into the Zeta stronghold using the [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110928-mexico-security-memo-zetas-defensive-veracruz
     ] Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), which using the name
     Matazetas (Zeta killers) conducted some high-profile body dumps of over
     50 alleged low-level Zeta operatives on Sept. 20 and 22.  On Oct. 25,
     Mexican Marines arrested Carlos Arturo Pitalua-Carillo, a**El Bam
     Bam,a** who was Los Zetas plaza boss in Veracruz.  This means that in
     Veracruz at the present time, Los Zetas are feeling pressure from both
     the Government of Mexico and the CJNG.

      

     Into this dynamic flow, we had the Anonymous internet collective begin
     to take action in Veracruz in August. In response to what Anonymous saw
     as the state of Veracruz supporting the Los Zetas cartel could really
     use a bit more about what led an online collective of activists into the
     mexican cartel war and why now? How does this fit with their modus
     operandi and why veracruz now and not any other place at any other time
     in the last year or two? we get at some of this below, but would get to
     the what brought anonymous into this right up front...

     , they launched Operation Paperstorm, in which activists associated with
     this is the leaderless resistance model, and we want to be clear early
     on that many of these 'associates' may be self-styled and self-appointed
     'members' of the group, not unlike ELF or ALF... the Anonymous
     collective distributed leaflets throughout Veracruz claiming the state
     government supports Los Zetas.  They conducted major leaflet
     distributions on Aug. 13, 20, and 29. They also released videos to the
     internet on the anonymous website? or on the website of the veracruz
     government? or on youtube? on Aug. 26 and 29, condemning the State of
     Veracruz. (According to the Oct. 6 Anonymous video, Los Zetas allegedly
     kidnapped one of the activists involved in Operation Paperstorm.)

      

     Activities outside of Veracruz have also played a part in setting the
     stage. On Sept. 13, two people were tortured and killed and their bodies
     hung from a pedestrianoverpass in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state.  Signs
     left with the bodies signified that Los Zetas had killed the pair
     because they had posted information pertaining to Los Zetas on blogs
     that specialize in reporting on the Mexican cartels. On Sept 26, the
     body of Marisol Macias Casteneda was found beheaded in a park in Nuevo
     Laredo.   Macias who worked for a local newspaper allegedly posted on
     cartel blogs using the nickname a**Laredo Girl.a** A message found with
     her body noted that she was killed by Los Zetas due to her online
     activities.

      

     Following the death of Laredo Girl, Anonymous claimed responsibility for
     a distributed denial of service (DDOS) attack conducted against the
     official website of the state of Veracruz. Although she was killed by
     Los Zetas in Nuevo Laredo Tamaulipas, Anonymous said their attack on the
     Veracruz state website was because of the death of Laredo Girl. are we
     implying that this is an indication of the level of sophistication of
     anonymous activists' understanding of mexico and the cartels? I agree
     that a sentence should be added here about what it means that Anonymous
     chose to avenge Laredo Girl's death.

      

     It is also important to recognize that Anonymous was also unhappy with
     the State of Veracruz over the decision of the state to prosecute two
     individuals who had posted false kidnapping reports on Twitter on Aug.
     25. The false reports alleged that a group of children had been abducted
     from a Veracruz school and the panic caused by the report allegedly
     resulted in some two dozen traffic accidents as terrified parents rushed
     to the school to check o n their children. The so-called a**twitter
     terroristsa** were initially charged with offenses that could have
     carried a 30-year sentence. Anonymous, which has absolute freedom of
     speech on the internet as one of its foundational principles, took
     umbrage with this stiff penalty for the Twitter case a** especially
     because it stood in stark contrast with the impunity many cartel figures
     enjoy in Mexico. 

      

      

     Following the Oct. 6 release of the video in which Anonymous threatened
     Los Zetas if they did not release the kidnapped anonymous activist,
     Stratfor began to focus on the story, and in light of the approaching
     Nov. 5 deadline, decided to publish an, [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111028-mexicos-cartels-draw-online-activists-ire
     ] analysis of the topic, which was released on Oct. 28.  

      

     Following the release of our analysis, the topic has received a great
     deal of media coverage. This publicity has generated a very interesting
     response from Anonymous -- one that emphasizes the fast that it is a
     collective of people and not an organization.  As some
     Anonymousactivists were backing off the issue, erasing online user
     accounts, suggesting that the operation against Los Zetas had been a
     hoax and claiming that no activist had been kidnapped, other activists
     suggested that the campaign should be suspended. Still other activists
     became more strident and determined in their posts, urging that the
     campaign continue. Since Anonymous is a collective, activists can pick
     and choose which actions they will participate in. that means in his
     case that those activists who want to refrain from the campaign will and
     those who want to participate will continue it.

      

     This will to continue was manifested on Oct. 29, the personal website of
     Gustavo RosarioTorres, the former attorney general of the Mexican state
     of Tobasco was hacked and defaced with a message from Anonymous Mexico
     stating that Rosario was aZeta Do we know if that claim is true? If so,
     lets note it because it shows that Anonymous does have the ability to
     dig up factual "dirt" about the Veracruz govt. officials .  It was also
     reflected in the tone of the Oct. 31 message. Some activists associated
     with Anonymous clearly feel compelled to continue with the campaign due
     to the outpouring of public support they received in the wake of the
     media coverage. According to the Oct 31. Video statement:

      

     a**we received many expressions of support and solidarity as well as the
     voices of people crying for help. We must remember that we are on the
     side of the people, and we cannot let down the people, especially in
     critical moments like the one they currently live in.a**

      

     We therefore anticipate that some Anonymous activists will continue the
     campaign. We also believe that Los Zetas will respond.

      

     Revenge of the Sith (Yes Kamran, I agree with Isa that Star Wars is
     better than Star Trek disagree...star wars all the way) 

      

     The variouscartel groups in Mexico have long used the internet as a
     place to trumpet their triumphs on the battlefield and to taunt and even
     degrade their enemies. The cartels have posted videos of them torturing,
     executing and beheading members of opposing cartels. They also
     frequently monitor narco blogs and sometimeseven post on them.  As
     demonstrated by the blogger killings in Nuevo Laredo in September, Los
     Zetas appear to possess at least some rudimentary capability to trace
     online activity to people in thephysical world. It is not known if they
     employ their own team of dedicated cyber experts or if they rely on
     sources within the Mexican government a** although the most likely
     answer is probably a little of both. 

      

      

     In past Anonymous actions, like the Dec. 2010 attack against Pay Pal
     following the Wikileaks case, governments in the U.S. and the UK have
     arrested numerous individuals associated with Anonymous who allegedly
     participated in the attack. In June 2011, Turkey arrested dozens of
     activists associated with Anonymousactions conducted against the Turkish
     government for its efforts to establish a national internet filtering
     system.

      

     Los Zetas, like the other Mexican cartels, do not take affronts lightly.
     Even if Anonymous is not able to provide information that will damage
     Los Zetas smuggling operations, the very fact that this group has
     decided to challenge Los Zetas publicly will result in some sort of
     response. The big question is: do theypossess the capability to
     effectively trace the organizers of the Anonymousaction against them?

      

     One problem with an entity such as Anonymous is that it is intentionally
     amorphous a** it is also as transnational as the internet, and it would
     not be surprising if many of those chosen to participate in the
     operation against Los Zetas are located outside of Mexico in locations
     such as the U.S. and Europe which are outside the immediate reach of Los
     Zetas.

      

     But the amorphous nature of Anonymous can also cut the other way.  If
     Los Zetas pick up and execute some random patrons from an internet cafe,
     behead them and place Guy Fawkesmasks on their heads, it will be very
     difficult to prove that they were not  associated with  Anonymous.  As
     Anonymous noted in their Oct. 31 video, this is dangerous business.

      

      

     The Big Picture

      

     One thing to watch as the Anonymous operation continues is the way in
     which the Mexican public reacts. Many people in the Mexican middle and
     upper classes have been deeply affected by the criminal cartels and
     theviolence the practice. We talk to many people in Mexico who are
     fearful of being kidnapped. In many communities, especially places like
     Juarez, Torreon, Monterrey and Veracruz, businessmen are being caught in
     a terrible bind. On one hand, they are receiving ever-increasing
     extortion demands from the cartels, while at the same time their
     business revenues are dwindling because people are afraid to go out due
     to the violence associated with those same cartels. This is forcing many
     businessmen out of business. It is also creating a great deal of
     frustration and resentment.

      

     At the same time, Mexico has become one of the most dangerous countries
     in the world for journalists, and many media companies practice heavy
     self-censorship to protect themselves. In the wake of the September
     blogger killings some of the narco blogs, like Blog del Narco, have also
     exhibited strong signs of fear inspired self-censorship.   This means
     that the legitimate press is not able to be of any real aid to the
     Mexican people. watch normative...

      

     Mexican citizens are also frustrated with their government, which is
     well-known for corruption.  This is the sentiment feeding Anonymousa**
     original campaign in Veracruz.  This frustration has lead some people to
     begin to talk about

     vigilante groups to fight the cartels a** though that has been attempted
     before in Mexico and as we saw in the case of [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090714_mexico_la_familia_michoacana_expands_its_attacks
     ] La Familia MichoacA!n, which originally began as such a vigilante
     group, vigilantism frequently does not end well.

      

     This is where Anonymous may fit in. With Mexican citizens unable to rely
     on their government, the media or even armed vigilante groups for
     assistance, they may embrace Anonymous and come to view its form of
     cyber vigilantism as an outlet for their frustration -- and a safe way
     to pass oninformation pertaining to cartel activities.  If this occurs,
     we may see people not just in Veracruz and other Zeta controlled areas
     providing information to Anonymous, but citizens from all over the
     country.The only thing is that I don't see what Anonymous can really do
     to los Zetas.  I mean they would have the dirt on officials in the
     government who may be Zetas, but what will the Mexican government do
     about it? I don't see the US govt. being able to do anything about that
     either.  For example, what happened to the guy Gustavo Torres in
     response to the claim by Anonymous.

      

     Also, in the same way that cartels leak information togovernments in an
     effort to use them as weapons against their rivals, we could also very
     well see groups such as the Sinaloa cartel provide information on Los
     Zetas to Anonymous. This of course would provide even more reason for
     Los Zetas to strike out against the activist collective.

      
     one interesting angle is that anonymous depends on anonymity -- and
     particularly novice self-styled, self-appointed members are not
     necessarily in a position to adequately guard their own autonomy

     Also, has autonomous struck out at entities as violent and capable as
     the cartels before? or is this a new move (meaning that even the
     experienced people have no practical experience in making judgments
     about dangers to individuals and the life-and-death consequences of
     dealing with the cartels...)

     If the Anonymous information campaign does indeed take off, and if
     Anonymous is attacked by Los Zetas, the activists could resort to
     releasing sensitive information what kind of sensitive information? to
     the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration in an attempt to damage Los
     Zetas. This would be an incredible irony in light of the way Anonymous
     has viewed itself as an opponent of the U.S. government in cases like
     Wikileaks.  do we have any indication that they would do this rather
     than just making it public? What to be careful if this is how we are
     going to conclude...
</description>
    <date>2011-11-01 22:32:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1016464_re-s-weekly-for-comment-placing-the-anonymous-vs-zeta.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ashley.harrison@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1017020</id>
    <title>Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta conflict
	in context
</title>
    <description>     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 4:45:43 PM
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict        in context

   On 11/1/11 1:11 PM, scott stewart wrote:

      Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta Conflict in Context

     On Oct. 31, the online activist collective Anonymous posted a message to
     the internet  in which it stated that it was continuing with its
     campaign against the Mexican criminal cartels and their
     governmentsupporters despite the inherent danger.

      

     The messageurged inexperienced activists who might not be practicing
     proper online security measures to abstain from participating. It also
     urged individuals associated with Anonymous to not conduct physical
     pamphlet drops, participate in protests, wear or purchase Guy Fawkes
     masks, or use Guy Fawkes imagery in their internet or physical world
     activities.[Is this universally or just in Mexico?  The former points to
     problems with LE cracking down on them, the latter specifically to
     cartel retribution]  Guy Fawkes was British Catholic conspirator who was
     involved in a plot to bomb the British Parliament in 1605, and who has
     become somewhat of an Anarchist icon in the United Kingdom. The British
     celebrate Guy Fawkes Day each year on Nov. 5, and the day has special
     meaning for the anarchists.  

      

     It is not coincidental then, that in their Oct. 6 video, Anonymous set
     Nov. 5 as the deadline for Los Zetas to release the Anonymous associate
     who was allegedly kidnapped in Veracruz by Los Zetas. The Anonymous
     associate was reportedly abducted during an Anonymous leaflet campaign
     called Operation Paperstorm.

      

     The Oct. 31message acknowledged that the operation against Los Zetas,
     dubbed a**# OpCartela** is dangerous and noted that the collective would
     be assembling a hand-picked group of known and trusted associates to
     participate in a special task force to execute the operation.[hahahaha,
     this says something about leadership] It asked supporters to use a
     software widget[WC. is this the correct term?] they had developed in
     order to anonymously pass information pertaining to drug trafficking to
     the task force, which will then distribute it. 

      

     With Nov. 5, approaching, and at least some elements of Anonymous not
     backing down on their threats to Los Zetas, we thought it would be
     useful to provide some context to the present conflict between Anonymous
     and Los Zetas and to also address some of its potential implications.

      

     Context

      

     First it issignificant to understand that the physical? geographic?
     epicenter of this event is Veracruz, which  has been a very busy place
     over the past few months in terms of Mexicoa**s cartel wars. The port
     city also serves as a critical transportation hub for the narcotics
     smuggling activities of the Los Zetas cartel. Because of this, Stratfor
     has identified Veracruz as [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111024-mexican-drug-war-update-polarization-continues
     ] a bellweather city thatwill help determine the trajectory of the Los
     Zetas cartel in the coming months. 

      

     One of the big recent developments in Veracruz was the Sinaloa
     cartela**s push into the Zeta stronghold using the [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110928-mexico-security-memo-zetas-defensive-veracruz
     ] Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), which using the name
     Matazetas (Zeta killers) conducted some high-profile body dumps of over
     50 alleged low-level Zeta operatives on Sept. 20 and 22.  On Oct. 25,
     Mexican Marines arrested Carlos Arturo Pitalua-Carillo, a**El Bam
     Bam,a** who was Los Zetas plaza boss in Veracruz.  This means that in
     Veracruz at the present time, Los Zetas are feeling pressure from both
     the Government of Mexico and the CJNG.

      

     Into this dynamic flow, we had the Anonymous internet collective begin
     to take action in Veracruz in August. In response to what Anonymous saw
     as the state of Veracruz supporting the Los Zetas cartel, they launched
     Operation Paperstorm, in which activists who associated themselves with
     the Anonymous collective distributed leaflets throughout Veracruz
     claiming the state government supports Los Zetas.  They conducted major
     leaflet distributions on Aug. 13, 20, and 29. They also released videos
     to the internet on Aug. 26 and 29, condemning the State of Veracruz.
     (According to the Oct. 6 Anonymous video, Los Zetas allegedly kidnapped
     one of the activists involved in Operation Paperstorm.)

      

     Activities outside of Veracruz have also played a part in setting the
     stage. On Sept. 13, two people were tortured and killed and their bodies
     hung from a pedestrianoverpass in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state.  Signs
     left with the bodies signified that Los Zetas had killed the pair
     because they had posted information pertaining to Los Zetas on blogs
     that specialize in reporting on the Mexican cartels. On Sept 26, the
     body of Marisol Macias Casteneda was found beheaded in a park in Nuevo
     Laredo.   Macias who worked for a local newspaper allegedly posted on
     cartel blogs using the nickname a**Laredo Girl.a** A message found with
     her body noted that she was killed by Los Zetas due to her online
     activities.

      

     Following the death of Laredo Girl, Anonymous claimed responsibility for
     a distributed denial of service (DDOS) attack conducted against the
     official website of the state of Veracruz. Although she was killed by
     Los Zetas in Nuevo Laredo Tamaulipas, Anonymous said their attack on the
     Veracruz state website was because of the death of Laredo Girl. [can you
     attempt to explain why they linked it with veracruz?]

      

     It is also important to recognize that some members of Anonymous [again
     I hate referring to Anonymous as one entity] was also unhappy with the
     State of Veracruz over the decision of the state to prosecute two
     individuals who had posted false kidnapping reports on Twitter on Aug.
     25. The false reports alleged that a group of children had been abducted
     from a Veracruz school and the panic caused by the report allegedly
     resulted in some two dozen traffic accidents as terrified parents rushed
     to the school to check o n their children. The so-called a**twitter
     terroristsa** were initially charged with offenses that could have
     carried a 30-year sentence. Those involved in this campaign from
     Anonymous, which claims absolute freedom of speech on the internet as
     one of its foundational principles, took umbrage with this stiff penalty
     for the Twitter case a** especially because it stood in stark contrast
     with the impunity many cartel figures enjoy in Mexico. 

      

      

     Following the Oct. 6 release of the video in which Anonymous threatened
     Los Zetas if they did not release the kidnapped anonymous activist,
     Stratfor began to focus on the story, and in light of the approaching
     Nov. 5 deadline, decided to publish an, [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111028-mexicos-cartels-draw-online-activists-ire
     ] analysis of the topic, which was released on Oct. 28.  

      

     Following the release of our analysis, the topic has received a great
     deal of media coverage. This publicity has generated a very interesting
     response from Anonymous -- one that emphasizes the fast that it is a
     collective of people and not an organization.  As some
     Anonymousactivists were backing off the issue, erasing online user
     accounts[does this mean accounts of people in support of the attack?],
     suggesting that the operation against Los Zetas had been a hoax and
     claiming that no activist had been kidnapped, other activists suggested
     that the campaign should be suspended. Still other activists became more
     strident and determined in their posts, urging that the campaign
     continue. Since Anonymous is a collective, activists can pick and choose
     which actions they will participate in. that means in his case that
     those activists who want to refrain from the campaign will and those who
     want to participate will continue it.  [i see how this paragraph fits
     into your analysis the way you have it written, but I think it might go
     better at the front.  You could use the 'anonymous discussion' as a
     trigger, explain it's "collective" qualities and then go into the rest
     of the analysis.  This way I feel much less bad about how we refer to
     'anonymous']

      

     This will to continue was manifested[something is off in the previous
     part of the sentence] on Oct. 29, the personal website of Gustavo
     RosarioTorres, the former attorney general of the Mexican state of
     Tobasco was hacked and defaced with a message from Anonymous Mexico
     stating that Rosario was aZeta.  It was also reflected in the tone of
     the Oct. 31 message. Some activists associated with Anonymous clearly
     feel compelled to continue with the campaign due to the outpouring[WC. 
     Did they really get an outpouring? seemed like they got a lot of
     criticism and also support for going against the cartels] of public
     support they received in the wake of the media coverage. According to
     the Oct 31. Video statement: (did we see specific examples of "public
     support" or are we just going off of the youtube statement CLAIMING that
     they got lots of support?)

      

     a**we received many expressions of support and solidarity as well as the
     voices of people crying for help. We must remember that we are on the
     side of the people, and we cannot let down the people, especially in
     critical moments like the one they currently live in.a**

      

     We therefore anticipate that some Anonymous activists will continue the
     campaign. We also believe that Los Zetas will respond.

      

     Revenge of the Sith (Yes Kamran, I agree with Isa that Star Wars is
     better than Star Trek. What's Star Trek?) 

      

     The variouscartel groups in Mexico have long used the internet as a
     place to trumpet their triumphs on the battlefield and to taunt and even
     degrade their enemies. The cartels have posted videos of them torturing,
     executing and beheading members of opposing cartels. They also
     frequently monitor narco blogs and sometimeseven post on them.  As
     demonstrated by the blogger killings in Nuevo Laredo in September, Los
     Zetas appear to possess at least some rudimentary capability to trace
     online activity to people in thephysical world. It is not known if they
     employ their own team of dedicated cyber experts or if they rely on
     sources within the Mexican government a** although the most likely
     answer is probably a little of both.  [what about just old-fashioned
     human intelligence?  Many people discuss blogger identities both online
     and offline, something they could've picked up without network-based
     forensics.  'My brother blogs about...' and on from there.  Or by
     tracing the information the blogger had in the real world, and
     eventually getting back to the blogger]

   Tristan was talking about how the cartels were even kidnapping computer
   science students and forcing them to track anonymous down. Need to check
   with him on specifics though

      

      

     In past Anonymous actions, like the Dec. 2010 attack against Pay Pal
     following the Wikileaks case, governments in the U.S. and the UK have
     arrested numerous individuals associated with Anonymous who allegedly
     participated in the attack. In June 2011, Turkey arrested dozens of
     activists associated with Anonymousactions conducted against the Turkish
     government for its efforts to establish a national internet filtering
     system. [Need something to make a point here, maybe something like:] 
     The reality is that there is no such thing as anonymity, on the internet
     or otherwise.  Any action leaves some trail, whether digitial or
     physical.  In the same way that hackers from Anonymous develop exploits
     to access confidential information, law enforcement agencies and even
     cartels could get around encryption, examine patterns of activity and
     investigate leads that in the end identify a real person behind a
     computer. 

      

     Los Zetas, like the other Mexican cartels, do not take affronts lightly.
     Even if Anonymous is not able to provide information that will damage
     Los Zetas smuggling operations, the very fact that this group has
     decided to challenge Los Zetas publicly will result in some sort of
     response. The big question is: do theypossess the capability to
     effectively trace the organizers of the Anonymousaction against them?

      

     One problem with an entity such as Anonymous is that it is intentionally
     amorphous a** it is also as transnational as the internet, and it would
     not be surprising if many of those chosen to participate in the
     operation against Los Zetas are located outside of Mexico in locations
     such as the U.S. and Europe which are outside the immediate reach of Los
     Zetas.(the US is not out of reach, at least not on the border:
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111005-mexico-security-memo-defining-cross-border-violence)

      

     But the amorphous nature of Anonymous can also cut the other way.  If
     Los Zetas pick up and execute some random patrons from an internet cafe,
     behead them and place Guy Fawkesmasks on their heads, it will be very
     difficult to prove that they were not  associated with  Anonymous.  As
     Anonymous noted in their Oct. 31 video, this is dangerous business.(it
     would certainly be within the cartel's capacity to kill innocents and
     blame anonymous in the attempt to intimidate them into stopping their
     activity)

      

      

     The Big Picture

      

     One thing to watch as the Anonymous operation continues is the way in
     which the Mexican public reacts. Many people in the Mexican middle and
     upper classes have been deeply affected by the criminal cartels and
     theviolence the practice. We talk to many people in Mexico who are
     fearful of being kidnapped. In many communities, especially places like
     Juarez, Torreon, Monterrey and Veracruz, businessmen are being caught in
     a terrible bind. On one hand, they are receiving ever-increasing
     extortion demands from the cartels, while at the same time their
     business revenues are dwindling because people are afraid to go out due
     to the violence associated with those same cartels. This is forcing many
     businessmen[enterprises?] out of business. It is also creating a great
     deal of frustration and resentment.

      

     At the same time, Mexico has become one of the most dangerous countries
     in the world for journalists, and many media organizations practice
     heavy self-censorship to protect themselves. In the wake of the
     September blogger killings some of the narco blogs, like Blog del Narco,
     have also exhibited strong signs of fear inspired self-censorship.  
     This means that the legitimate press is not able to be of any real aid
     to the Mexican people.

      

     Mexican citizens are also frustrated with their government, which is
     well-known for corruption.  This is the sentiment feeding Anonymousa**
     original campaign in Veracruz.  This frustration has lead some people to
     begin to talk about

     vigilante groups to fight the cartels a** though that has been attempted
     before in Mexico and as we saw in the case of [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090714_mexico_la_familia_michoacana_expands_its_attacks
     ] La Familia MichoacA!n, which originally began as such a vigilante
     group, vigilantism frequently does not end well.

      

     This is where Anonymous may fit in. With Mexican citizens unable to rely
     on their government, the media or even armed vigilante groups for
     assistance, they may embrace Anonymous and come to view its form of
     cyber vigilantism as an outlet for their frustration -- and a perceived
     safe way to pass oninformation pertaining to cartel activities.  If this
     occurs, we may see people not just in Veracruz and other Zeta controlled
     areas providing information to Anonymous, but citizens from all over the
     country.

      

     Also, in the same way that cartels leak information togovernments in an
     effort to use them as weapons against their rivals, we could also very
     well see groups such as the Sinaloa cartel provide information on Los
     Zetas to Anonymous. This of course would provide even more reason for
     Los Zetas to strike out against the activist collective.

      

     If the Anonymous information campaign does indeed take off, and if
     Anonymous is attacked by Los Zetas, the activists could resort to
     releasing sensitive information to the U.S. Drug Enforcement
     Administration in an attempt to damage Los Zetas. This would be an
     incredible irony in light of the way Anonymous has viewed itself as an
     opponent of the U.S. government in cases like Wikileaks. (Anonymous has
     made it clear that the value they provide is a safe and private medium
     through which to pass this damning information. Their stated priority is
     to publicize information that people send to them. But, do they have a
     way to protect their sources? They likely don't have much collective
     experience in source handling. I imagine a lot of the details they get
     could put their sources in serious trouble. If I were a semi-smart
     Mexican who knew some super detailed information on the cartels, I would
     think long and hard before handing it over to these guys. This may be a
     separate piece entirely, but I think we need a discussion on source
     handling and how good hackers don't necessarily make good intelligence
     agents.)

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   STRATFOR

   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967

   www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-01 23:42:42</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1017020_re-s-weekly-for-comment-placing-the-anonymous-vs-zeta.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ben.west@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1017409</id>
    <title>Re: GREECE - Greece just announced major surprise changes to its
	top	brass
</title>
    <description>   On it. Will send out compilation shortly of what we know.

   --
   Kristen A. Cooper
   Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: (512) 744-4093 M: (512) 619-9414

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "George Friedman" &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 5:59:17 PM
   Subject: Re: GREECE - Greece just announced major surprise changes to
   its        top        brass

   Agree completely with kristen. No sane politician would do this without a
   reason. Jest happened is crap.

   Someone start crawling over facts and sources. This is a nato matter so
   brussels should be buzzing.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Kristen Cooper &lt;kristen.cooper@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Tue, 1 Nov 2011 16:52:43 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: GREECE - Greece just announced major surprise changes to its
   top brass
   I'm mostly trying to play devil advocate here - but if these are issues
   that were long-standing or of limited significance why announce this when
   the entire cabinet including the minister of defense is supposed to be in
   an emergency cabinet?

   --
   Kristen A. Cooper
   Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: (512) 744-4093 M: (512) 619-9414

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Nate Hughes" &lt;nate.hughes@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "Kristen Cooper" &lt;kristen.cooper@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 5:35:41 PM
   Subject: Re: GREECE - Greece just announced major surprise changes to its
   top brass

   another demographic to keep in mind is the civilian employees of the MoD
   (don't know if this is who we're talking about here or not...). These guys
   traditionally enjoy the privileges of state employees in terms of pension
   benefits and job security, but are likely to take a big -- even
   disproportionate -- hit as the military institutes whatever cuts but tries
   to retain as much combat capability as possible...

   On 11/1/11 4:26 PM, Kristen Cooper wrote:

       the Association of Support and Cooperation of the State Armed Forces 

     That is the equivalent of the military's union and its not clear who the
     "executives of the Greek Armed Forces is". The defense ministry was the
     first to condemn these guys.
     It is not at all clear that this was a cabinet decision. He needs the
     support of the whole cabinet and the Prime Minister and the President to
     do this.
     On Nov 1, 2011, at 5:18 PM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

       This is not the retired officers:

       On Sunday in a measured but pointed open letter to the government, the
       Association of Support and Cooperation of the State Armed Forces, the
       professional association of full-time staff, warned that the Greek
       Armed Forces are monitoring the governmenta**s moves a**with increased
       concerna** and that their confidence in the a**intentions of the
       statea** have been a**shakena**.

       a**The executives of the Greek Armed Forces are monitoring with
       increased concern the latest developments regarding issues related to
       their needs after retirement,a** the letter reads.

       If the Defense Minister is acting on a cabinet decision I don't see
       why he wouldn't have the power to do that.

       On 11/01/2011 09:49 PM, Kristen Cooper wrote:

         The defense minister saying he is going to replace the military
         leadership that was appointed by the party that appointed him as
         defense minister with his "own people".
         That isn't normal. The defense minister does not have the power to
         legally do that on his own.
         Papandreou just finished up his speech to the parliament like 30
         mins ago. The finance minister, Venizelos, never attended -
         allegedly for health reasons.
         There are varying degrees between military coup and routine shuffle.
         If the prime minister is about to be outed - maybe this is about
         cutting out the people that are more loyal to him than to the party.
         If PASOK is about lose control over the government, it doesn't
         matter who they appoint because the new government would just
         replace them.
         Also, the "trouble brewing in the ranks" that you are referring to
         is from retired officers who want their pension funds paid in full.
         That is different than dissent from active members of the military.
         I'm not saying this is a coup - but it is unusual and, I don't buy
         resistance to budget cuts as a sufficient answer - particularly when
         its unclear who is going to be responsible for enacting those budget
         cuts at the moment.
         On Nov 1, 2011, at 4:32 PM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

           I think the military coup theory is a bit far-fetched honestly.

           This was announced earlier as probably happening today:

           On Tuesday, he convened an unscheduled meeting of the Government
           Council for Foreign Affairs and Defence, the supreme
           decision-making body on national defense.

           According to sources within the ministry quoted by Greek daily
           Eleftherotypia, Beglitis is planning to replace the leadership of
           the military with "his own people." Unnamed officials described
           his actions as "politically mad" and "militarily dangerous."

           http://euobserver.com/19/114133

           We also knew that trouble had been brewing in the ranks:
           http://euobserver.com/13/113821

           On 11/01/2011 07:48 PM, Kristen Cooper wrote:

             All of the replaced officers were appointed by the ruling party
             in 2009 and 2010. They knew cuts to the military budget were
             coming - and they haven't made a show of resisting them.

             --
             Kristen A. Cooper
             Eurasia Analyst
             STRATFOR
             T: (512) 744-4093 M: (512) 619-9414

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: "Nate Hughes" &lt;nate.hughes@stratfor.com&gt;
             To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
             Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 2:08:43 PM
             Subject: Re: GREECE - Greece just announced major surprise
             changes to its        top brass

             no, but the perception within the Greek government may have been
             that these leaders were unwilling to accept cuts below a certain
             level. They may have replaced them with more ambitious,
             politically malleable replacements willing to accept deeper cuts
             without making a public show of it. That may be a perception or
             based on internal signals from these guys. We haven't seen
             anything publicly.

             That's a potential scenario, not necessarily what's going on.
             Point is that this isn't about solving Greece's problems, but
             that given all the political shuffling in Greece, there are a
             dozen viable scenarios where this is just a symptom or
             reflection of all of the broader shuffling.

             The only critical potential red alert scenario we need to be
             examining right now is either the pre-emptive move to stave off
             a coup or setting the stage for some sort of military-instigated
             hail mary by the powers that be to change the equation since the
             existing equation is intolerable and insoluble. As long as this
             isn't one of those two -- either Greece just barely avoided a
             military coup or is actually setting one up -- we can return to
             our discussion from the blue sky.

             On 11/1/11 12:54 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

               replacing hte top brass doesn't resolve your need for massive
               defense cuts

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

               From: "Peter Zeihan" &lt;zeihan@stratfor.com&gt;
               To: analysts@stratfor.com
               Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 12:52:22 PM
               Subject: Re: GREECE - Greece just announced major surprise
               changes to its        top brass

               just so we're all starting from the same place, we've seeing
               NOTHING before today to suggest that a military government is
               in the making

               HOWEVER, this is a piece of the world that has wavered between
               military control and non-statehood for about 2570 out of the
               past 2700 years, some of which are within living memory -
               democracy is not the normal state of affairs

               as such military movements are something we've been keeping an
               eye open for -- don't know (yet) if that's what we're seeing
               here...it could simply be that massive defense cuts are needed
               in order to meet budgetary goals (and greece has resisted them
               strongly so far)

               On 11/1/11 12:45 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

                 what talk has there been so far in Greece of imposing
                 emergency rule by the military/govt? im sure that's
                 something they've had to contemplate. what's the nature of
                 mil-civ relations in Greece?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

                 From: "Bayless Parsley" &lt;bayless.parsley@stratfor.com&gt;
                 To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
                 Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 12:44:25 PM
                 Subject: Re: GREECE - Greece just announced major surprise
                 changes to its        top brass

                 this is not really helpful, only sending along because
                 apparently people in the financial world have been joking
                 about this as the optimal option for the past week.
                 The Appalling Greek Solution: A Military Coup
                 2 comments, 0 called-out
                 + Comment now
                 http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2011/10/26/the-real-greek-solution-a-military-coup/

                 Therea**s a not very funny joke going around the financial
                 markets at the moment, that the real solution to the Greek
                 problem is a military coup. (Just to make it clear, no, of
                 course Ia**m not advocating a coup. See below) Instead of
                 Germany trying to fund the Greek debt they should instead
                 sponsor such a coup:

                   Only half in jest is it sometimes said that a better use
                   for Germanya**s money than pouring it down the drain of
                   further bail-outs would be to sponsor a Greek military
                   coup and solve the problem that waya*|..

                 The reason being that a military dictatorship cannot be in
                 the European Union. Thus, if there was such a military coup
                 Greece would immediately have to leave the EU and thus
                 whatever happened to its economy would simply be someone
                 elsea**s problem.

                 Whata**s so sad, or bitter if you prefer, about the joke is
                 that, if we ignore the little problem of it being a military
                 dictatorship, this would in fact be a good solution to Greek
                 woes. They simply cannot, under any circumstances, pay the
                 current debts so theya**re going to have to default. But
                 default in itself doesna**t solve the major problem, which
                 is that theya**re caught in a monetary union at a price
                 which makes Greek labour woefully uncompetitive.

                 Which means in turn that Greek wages, Greek living
                 standards, have to fall in order to make that labour
                 competitive. Or, if you prefer, Greek labour productivity
                 needs to rise very strngly and very quickly. Either path is
                 extremely difficult and painful. The third alternative is
                 for Greece to leave the currency union and then devalue the
                 New Drachma.

                 However, the way that the European Union and the eurozone
                 are set up a country leaving the monetary union would be
                 considered to be a shocking defeat for the whole European
                 ideal. What the military coup would allow is, as I say
                 ignoring that little detail about it being a military coup,
                 what should probably happen and would certainly be the least
                 painful way for Greece to deal with its problems: default
                 and exit from the euro.

                 That we have to joke about such horrible things as a
                 military takeover though does show quite how dysfunctional
                 European politics has become. No one really wants to talk
                 about a dictatorship as the solution to a fairly simple
                 economic problem but that is what wea**re reduced to as the
                 current system simple will not take that reasonably simple
                 solution seriously.

                 Update: Ia**ve changed the headline from a**Reala** to
                 a**Appallinga** just to make clear that of course Ia**m not
                 advocating a coup. Yes, of course I know my Greek history. I
                 can see that therea**s at least one translation of this post
                 into Greek out there and I assume that some of the sublety
                 of the English language original has got lost. I was not, do
                 not and would not advocate something like a military coup as
                 a solution to a simple economic problem. The point of the
                 post was to point out that there is a dark and bitter joke
                 going around stating that given that the EU is so
                 mismanaging this situation then that might be the best path
                 left. No, no one who tells the joke nor I in repeating it
                 think that this is the best path: or even an acceptable one.
                 The point being made is that the EU is so mismanaging
                 matters. This is a dark and bitter comment on the EU, not
                 advocacy of a course of action.

                 On 11/1/11 12:28 PM, Kristen Cooper wrote:

                   Omar and Paul are helping me get the backgrounds on the
                   guys that were replaced and who they are being replaced
                   with.

                   If you are going to have a coup from the military against
                   the government then it usually comes from the lower
                   echelon guys - which these guys probably are not. But this
                   is the equivalent of Obama and Panetta replacing the
                   entire joint chiefs.

                   All of the guys on this committee are members of the
                   ruling cabinet - members of the Parliament. The parliament
                   is supposed to be on lockdown debating the no-confidence
                   vote. All other business is supposed to be on hold. In
                   that case, they shouldn't be holding this meeting at all.
                   Let alone making surprise announcements like that.

                   As prime minister, Papandreou is supposed to be on this
                   committee. We need to find out if he was there.

                   Another thing, until this June, the current finance
                   minister and deputy prime minister, Evangelos Venizelos,
                   was the national defence minster. So, in theory, he should
                   have a pretty close read on the military's top brass,
                   knowing who is loyal and who isn't.
                   --
                   Kristen A. Cooper
                   Eurasia Analyst
                   STRATFOR
                   T: (512) 744-4093 M: (512) 619-9414

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

                   From: "Omar Lamrani" &lt;omar.lamrani@stratfor.com&gt;
                   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
                   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 1:09:46 PM
                   Subject: Re: GREECE - Greece just announced major surprise
                   changes to its        top brass

                   This is indeed rather huge. This is essentially replacing
                   the entire top military leadership in one go. There must
                   be a significant reason for this. Could it possibly be
                   military dissent against the Govt.?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

                   From: "Kristen Cooper" &lt;kristen.cooper@stratfor.com&gt;
                   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
                   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 11:59:33 AM
                   Subject: Fwd: GREECE - Greece just announced major
                   surprise changes to its        top brass

                   The government committee that appoints the top brass for
                   all service divisions is composed entirely of the ruling
                   party. I'm looking into the history of these guys.

                   This is not typical to replace the head of all of your
                   armed forces in a surprise announcement all at once.

                   --
                   Kristen A. Cooper
                   Eurasia Analyst
                   STRATFOR
                   T: (512) 744-4093 M: (512) 619-9414

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

                   From: "Kristen Cooper" &lt;kristen.cooper@stratfor.com&gt;
                   To: watchofficer@stratfor.com, "Analyst List"
                   &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
                   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 12:53:50 PM
                   Subject: GREECE - Greece just announced major surprise
                   changes to its top brass

                   We need to look into this. I don't think this is routine
                   at first glance.

                   http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/49916

                   Changes afoot for the top brass                           
                    1 Nov 2011                                               
                   (File                                                     
                         photo)                                              
                                         (File photo)                        
                                                                             
                   [IMG]                                                     
                   In a surprise move, the defence minister proposed on      
                   Tuesday evening the complete replacement of the           
                   countrya**s top brass.                                    
                                                                             
                   At an extraordinary meeting of the Government Council of  
                   Foreign Affairs and Defence (Kysea), which comprises the  
                   prime minister and other key cabinet members, Defence     
                   Minister Panos Beglitis proposed the following changes to 
                   the army, navy and air force and the general staff:       
                     * General Ioannis Giagkos, chief of the Greek National  
                       Defence General Staff, to be replaced by Lieutenant   
                       General Michalis Kostarakos                           
                     * Lieutenant General Fragkos Fragkoulis, chief of the   
                       Greek Army General Staff, to be replaced by           
                       lieutenant general Konstantinos Zazias                
                     * Lieutenant General Vasilios Klokozas, chief of the    
                       Greek Air Force, to be replaced by air marshal        
                       Antonis Tsantirakis                                   
                     * Vice-Admiral Dimitrios Elefsiniotis, chief of the     
                       Greek Navy General Staff, to be replaced by           
                       Rear-Admiral Kosmas Christidis                        
                   It is understood that the personnel changes took many     
                   members of the government and of the armed forces by      
                   surprise. (Athens News)                                   

                   --
                   Kristen A. Cooper
                   Eurasia Analyst
                   STRATFOR
                   T: (512) 744-4093 M: (512) 619-9414

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +216 22 73 23 19
 www.STRATFOR.com

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +216 22 73 23 19
 www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-01 23:10:48</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-07 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1017409_re-greece-greece-just-announced-major-surprise-changes-to.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kristen.cooper@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1017421</id>
    <title>Re: G3* - ARGENTINA/MIL - Govt secretly developing mid-range missiles
</title>
    <description>   How much time, technology and money does this type of improvement/upgrade
   take?  I know they've been at it for a year, but Argentina has a tendency
   to talk big but not have enough money or organization for follow through. 
   (for example Paris Club debt - they announced that payment in Fall 2008
   and still have not negotiated terms with the Club nor has the
   govt/Congress agreed on using reserves to pay the debt)  Just want to
   check how realistic implementing these changes is.

   On 11/23/2010 9:28 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     In Dec. 2009, Arg test launched the Gradicom PXC, which used solid fuel
     tech to launch a little bit over 100 km. The aim now is to improve the
     Condor II missile (which was reportedly abandoned by the Menem admin in
     the 90s). The Condor II was supposed to have a range of 1,000 miles and
     a payload of 500 kilos.  The med-term goal, according to this report, is
     for Arg to develop mid-range missiles that could carry a payload of at
     least 500 kilos up to 300 km, which would reach the Falklands.
     Nate, any thoughts on this?
     On Nov 23, 2010, at 9:21 AM, Allison Fedirka wrote:

       Falklands are about 300 miles (482 km) off the coast of Argentina. 
       I'm not much of missile expert to comment on the weapon's capabilities

       Also, to put this in context.  Yesterday was a new holiday in
       Argentina - Dia de la nacionalidad.  So there was lots of hype about
       Falkland sovereignty, etc.

         Rodger says look into this see if they can hit the falklands

         On 11/23/10 8:28 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

           Argentine Govt secretly developing mid-range missiles
           dialogbot@smtp.stratfor.com
           - Buenos Aires Perfil's Fernando Oz reports on 20 November that
           the Defence Ministry is working "in secret" on the development of
           a medium-range missile, Gradicom PXC 2009, and tested it
           successfully in Cordoba last December.The Planning Ministry is
           also involved in the project and plans to produce the missile on
           an industrial scale.Nobody in the Defense Ministry wants to
           comment and the US Embassy said that "we will make no comments."
           En secreto, el Gobierno disena un misil nacional de mediano
           alcance
           21 de Noviembre de 2010 07:41  -
           http://www.contexto.com.ar/vernota.php?id=39144

           Desde el Ministerio de Defensa desarrollan el arma y el ministro
           De Vido lo alienta. Las Fuerzas Armadas argentinas lo usarian y el
           remanente se exportaria. Sucede al Condor II, el proyecto que veto
           EEUU.

           El Gobierno trabaja en secreto en el desarrollo de un misil de
           mediano alcance que podria igualar las prestaciones del Condor II.

           La prueba experimental del cohete Gradicom PXC 2009, que se
           realizo hace un ano, fue motivo de festejos en el Edificio
           Libertador. Ahora, los cientificos y tecnicos que trabajan en el
           proyecto tienen el visto bueno para repotenciarlo, dotarlo de un
           moderno sistema de guiado, y producirlo a escala industrial.

           Despues de realizar una profunda transformacion de la politica de
           derechos humanos en las Fuerza Armadas, la ministra de Defensa,
           Nilda Garre, busca modernizar los sistemas de defensa y ampliar la
           capacidad disuasiva del pais a traves "del crecimiento tecnologico
           y la produccion para la defensa".

           A principios de diciembre de 2009 se probo con exito, en la
           localidad cordobesa de Serrezuela, el lanzamiento del cohete
           Gradicom PXC 2009.

           Su combustible solido lo hace apto para aplicaciones militares,
           aunque aun no se lo utilizo con cargas explosivas y el dia de su
           bautismo de lanzamiento apenas supero los cien kilometros.

           "Quisieramos que el nuevo misil supere los 500 kilometros de
           distancia, que tenga una propulsion con separacion y guiado, pero
           falta mucho para eso", confio una fuente cientifica del Ministerio
           de Defensa que esta trabajando en el proyecto.

           El proyecto Gradicom (Grandes Dimensiones Compuestos) es mejorar
           "tecnologicamente" al misil Condor II, que fue desmantelado por el
           ex presidente Carlos Menem en los 90, como consecuencia de la
           politica exterior basada en las "relaciones carnales" con los
           Estados Unidos.

           El Condor II tenia un alcance de mil kilometros y podia
           transportar una bomba de 500 kilos. Por ser un misil de alcance
           medio y su uso estaba cuestionado por el Regimen de Control de la
           Tecnologia Misilistica (MTCR).

           El MTCR, establecido en abril de 1987, es una sociedad informal y
           voluntaria entre 34 paises -Argentina se incorporo en 1993- para
           prevenir la proliferacion de tecnologia misilistica. Una de sus
           misiones es contener la extension de los sistemas sin tripulacion
           de la entrega para las armas nucleares, especificamente los que
           podrian llevar una carga util minima de 500 km, al menos, hasta
           300 km.

            

           Pero en el Edificio Libertador aseguran que el proyecto Gradicom
           no viola ningun tratado internacional.

           Una segunda fuente, allegada a la Secretaria de Planeamiento del
           Ministerio de Defensa, reconocio a este diario que se trabaja para
           "aumentar el alcance" del misil, aunque aclaro que "todo se hace
           dentro del marco de los tratados internacionales firmados por el
           pais".

           La idea del Ministerio de Planificacion, tambien involucrado en el
           proyecto, es potenciar el nuevo misil y llevarlo a escala
           industrial para la exportacion y uso militar de las Fuerzas
           Armadas argentinas. Pero para eso, faltan otros pasos: "Lo
           primero, que fue la propulsion, ya esta. Ahora estamos trabajando
           en la propulsion con separacion, y una tercera etapa sera la
           telemetria, los sensores. Lo mas complejo es el sistema de guiado
           y control completo", explico uno de los cientificos que trabaja en
           el proyecto que se esta disenando en el Centro de Investigaciones
           Cientificas y Tecnicas de las Fuerzas Armadas (Citefa).

           "No vamos hacer comentarios sobre el tema", se limitaron a decir
           en la Embajada de Estados Unidos en Buenos Aires, cuando PERFIL
           consulto sobre el nuevo emprendimiento militar argentino. En los
           90, fueron las presiones norteamericanas las que terminaron con el
           Condor II.

           En la cartera que conduce Garre, nadie quiere hablar sobre las
           etapas del misterioso misil. "Se informo lo que se debia en su
           momento, el resto es secreto porque se esta trabajando", se
           disculparon en el entorno de la titular de Defensa. El ministro de
           Planificacion, Julio De Vido, es uno de los mas entusiasmados con
           el proyecto que en la Casa Rosada califican como "una cuestion de
           Estado".

           "Vamos a poner Fabricaciones Militares (que depende de
           Planificacion) a disposicion del Ministerio de Defensa para tener
           la posibilidad de fabricar en serie el PCX 2009", aseguro De Vido
           cuando los tecnicos civiles y militares le explicaron cuales eran
           los proximos objetivos.

           Garre y los ascensos

           La ministra de Defensa, Nilda Garre, afirmo en relacion con la
           polemica por los ascensos de los oficiales superiores de las
           Fuerzas Armadas que "la Presidenta, como Comandante en Jefe de las
           Fuerzas Armadas, tiene facultades discrecionales y por razones de
           merito, oportunidad y conveniencia puede seleccionar o sacar de la
           lista que le han elevado las Fuerzas, a traves del Ministerio de
           Defensa, alguno de esos oficiales propuestos".

           La funcionaria explico que "de ninguna manera importa de quien es
           hijo el candidato a considerar", y agrego que "hay gente que con
           su accionar y predica ha demostrado una vocacion democratica
           clara".

           Senalo que "algunos de ellos son hijos de personas que estan en
           este momento condenadas por delitos graves".

           La funcionaria cito como ejemplos, el cargo del actual general de
           brigada Diaz Bessone, con quien "he tratado esporadicamente y es
           un hombre democratico, claramente no suscribe las ideas de su
           padre". En este sentido, explico Garre, "se elige el mejor
           perfil". /perfil.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-23 16:39:35</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 22:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1017421_re-g3-argentina-mil-govt-secretly-developing-mid-range.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>allison.fedirka@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1017647</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   As far as Aurora, I haven't followed it closely. Did they ever identify
   the attackers or number of attackers? I thought the target set was the
   only thing that led people to believe the Chinese government was
   responsible.

   2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
   responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating cyber
   intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case HUMINT is
   just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT capabilities does not
   indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers. NSA may have there own
   department for tracking hackers but it does not make it SIGINT.

   Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

   Wikipedia provides an indepth explanation on SIGINT . But in short, SIGINT
   is the capability in exploiting signals provided by communication devices,
   and what can be obtained by exploiting the signals. Combining computer
   network operations and SIGINT is innaccurate, because while SIGINT may be
   used with other intelligence disciplines in order to identify a hacker, it
   is not necessary and is no more related than any other intel discipline.
   SIGINT could help you identify a computer devices (not the operator)
   emitting a signal (wifi), and cryptanalysis, which is also separate from
   SIGINT but often used in conjunction, could help in providing methods to
   decrypt messages over a network, but SIGINT wouldn't obtain those
   messages.

   In order to exploit computer network operations, the operators involved
   are specifically trained in computer science disciplines and technologies
   tailored specifically for computer activity.

   NSA also is the primary agency for cryptanalysis. Because of technological
   demands of SIGINT and cryptanalysis, NSA has enormous resources in R&amp;D, so
   I can see why the USG would move some CNO to NSA. But their SIGINT
   capabilities are not indicators of CNO capabilities.

   Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary labor for
   the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are discussing operations on
   the scale of causing physical damage to extremely sensitive equipment .
   Well, this is an example of a cyber attack that matters, whereeas
   Anonymous so far has not mattered.  You chose the most prolific example of
   a cyber attack (which the whole operation consisted mainly outside of the
   cyber attack itself). Anything that falls short of this doesn't matter?
   Define what matters. None of anonymous' attacks have physically damaged
   secret Iranian nuclear facilities, but I think you are downplaying too
   much the significance of exposing corporate secrets, halting businesses'
   revenues, and embarrassing State actors by defacing their websites.

   On 10/24/11 5:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     On 10/24/11 5:07 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already The USG
         arrested 10 Russian spies last year, are you willing to say foreign
         intel is not capable of conducting espionage undetected? No, of
         course not.  But I also would not argue that the SVR is so good to
         be immune to detection, as you are arguing with hackers.  I'm saying
         they are more detectable than you think.  There is no such thing as
         truly anonymous.  Everythign leaves a trail.  Will that trail in
         every instance lead to a single individual? no.  but it can lead to
         a place, an organization, and often, an individual. 

         2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
         responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating
         cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case
         HUMINT is just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT
         capabilities does not indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers.
         NSA may have there own department for tracking hackers but it does
         not make it SIGINT.

         Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

         The question is if the attack is high priority enough.  Many people
         assume there is no attribution because there is no response, but I
         don't think that is accurate.  Many people say this, because no
         attribution is one reason for no response.  Yes, they do, and if
         they think that is the primary reason for lack of response, then I
         think they are wrong. 

         3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new laptop
         and start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack involves much
         more than a recently bought laptop.  In the same way there is an
         attack cycle for a terrorist attack or crime, there is one for a
         cyber attack.  A very simple attack may be as hard to trace as a
         nearly-random mugging in the dark in a neighborhood with much more
         serious crime and no CCTV cameras.  A more complicated attack,
         however, involves pre-operational surveillance, developing exploits,
         developing programs and code, gaining access, exploiting that, and
         carrying out an attack.  Discovering exploits and writing code can
         be done entirely offline, out of sight of law enforcement or intel
         agencies. Pre-operational surveillance and gaining access (the point
         of the exploit you write offline) would fit in my example. The point
         is, if you don't link your computer to identifiable information, you
         remain anonymous. Just like people use certain methods to build
         IEDs, people use certain mehtods to design programs and code for
         cyber attacks.  Over time, those methods become identifiable and
         more and more attributable. This is, for example, how AURORA is
         linked back to the Chinese.  and very specific Chinese, I may add.
         Being connected or unconnected doesn't matter, eventually you have
         to use what you develop, or copy from someone, and all of those
         things can be analyzed.   And that takes time, giving more time for
         your exposure Exposure comes from network activity with the target,
         a lot of the pre-operational phase of an attack can occur without
         network activity. Look at everything that went into Stuxnet as a
         great example, that couldn't be done with one person with a new
         laptop. Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of
         necessary labor for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are
         discussing operations on the scale of causing physical damage to
         extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of a cyber
         attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not mattered.  
         All of this activity provides activity and evidence which helps for
         attribution.  Of course it is always possible to develop an attack,
         just like any other operation, that even the best law enforcement
         and national intelligence agencies have trouble or cannot
         attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that it's very difficult for
         someone to successfully use Anonymous as a cover and have NSA, GHQ,
         MID, Aman, etc, be unable to attribute it.  How do you know if NSA
         or GHQ is effective in identifying hackers?I don't, but I'm
         confident they are far better than you are allowing for.    They may
         not choose to cover it if it is small scale crime, however. 
         On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

           I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored
           cyber warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing
           that, since you can conduct a cyber attack without associating
           with a hacker group and still deny / cover actions on behalf of
           the State. An individual attacking US computer assets from China,
           may be working by himself or on behalf of the Chinese government,
           but unless the US has other intel on the Chinese government's
           cyber warfare activities in order to corroborate there is little
           capability to distinguish.

           It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
           operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets from
           SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual responsible
           for hacking State run servers. In the past, I have turned to
           SIGINT organizations for collections on computer related material,
           but this was due to the US being behind in cyber warfare, and not
           knowing where to assign responsibility. However, this has changed
           dramatically in the last couple of years.

           Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As an
           extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go to a
           Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the online
           activity to something revealing (accessing personal email
           accounts, tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop,
           etc..), and begin hacking government email accounts then never use
           the laptop again. Unless LEA could get an accurate description of
           my appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible security
           cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

           Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to
           these enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied to
           specific computer-related activities because of the difficulty in
           identifying individuals.

           I think the most likely way for a "Anonymous cover" to be blown,
           would be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a common
           participant in "Anonymous" activities, was working for a State?
           Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that State
           agent organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter buddies, what
           signs could a LEA look for to distinguish?

           On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

             In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a
             bit)

             1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything
             actually harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't, but
             i'm very doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first real
             case where they could do some minor damage--to individual
             people, not not to an organization or anything that would come
             as a serious or strategic threat. 

             2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is actually
             pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as a cover,
             but that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could probably
             still be attributed if important enough to those agencies.  The
             recent attack on Sony actually brings this issue up- Whoever is
             calling themselves anonymous denies they did it.  And keep in
             mind how much they have claimed an publicized attacks in the
             past, even before they were carried out.  The attack on the
             Playstation Network was more sophisticated than anonymous' usual
             work (though potentially coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS
             attacks that distracted Sony's IT security).  But whoever did
             it, again, no real damage came of it.  Congress is holding
             hearings over data security, but this is no different than the
             OC groups stealing your credit card information.  LE will go
             after them, have some success, but the threat is not that
             large. 
             On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

               Link: themeData

               I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to
               have a broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no
               nothing, or almost nothing about what this group is and the
               threat it poses. Reviewing their list of attacks
               (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most
               of the cases, they are the "good" guys, sort of a Robin Hood
               of the internet . The interesting thing when it comes to their
               interactions with the cartels is the dubious role they play:
               at the same time they can be fighting crime by revealing
               cartel members/supporters, but they can also put lives in
               risk.

               However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
               Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can
               conduct a cyber attack under "Anonymous" is worrisome.
               (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

               If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
               websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to
               know more about these guys. Who they are? What are they
               interested in? How they operate? Who they have targeted so
               far? How can I defend myself from them? In what countries are
               they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use them
               to achieve any particular goal?

               On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                 nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything
                 else can build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the
                 threat they pose to innocent people caught up in the terror
                 that is Mexico.  By focusing on journalists or taxi drivers
                 they show little understanding of the situation.  This has
                 long term implications in not just Mexico.  They don't
                 consider the consequences of their actions and they act
                 without understanding the environment.  It was the same when
                 they released information on the Sony Playstation network to
                 protest Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

                 On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                   Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of
                   discussing possible cartel responses, the focus is on what
                   type of threat Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video
                   released by Anonymous, threatens revealing personal
                   information on cartels as well as states a member had been
                   kidnapped. I could not find any sources outside of
                   Anonymous' claims of the individual being kidnapped.
                   According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and
                   Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual
                   posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the Operation
                   Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

                   Link: themeData
                   Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
                   distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government
                   websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with
                   a statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels,
                   including a video depicting a masked individual addressing
                   Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the most recent
                   video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                   criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing
                   identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
                   journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker
                   group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member
                   otherwise face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this
                   coming November 5th was mentioned as a day cartels could
                   expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of releasing a
                   kidnapped member are not met. The potential of conflict
                   between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents a
                   unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out
                   at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on
                   cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

                   What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                        o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical
                   security threat to Mexican cartels.
                        o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit
                   online media
                        o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico
                   to lash out at cartels

                   While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to
                   pose a threat
                        o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
                   identifiable information on cartel members
                        o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could
                   acquire on cartels
                        o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
                   communications, identifiable information on cartels
                   members have to be considered in the realm of
                   possibilities for
                               Anonymous
                               o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability
                   to reveal illicit online activity (child pornography
                   rings)

                   Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
                   ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
                   result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
                   limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting in
                   front of a computer, but this may blind them to any
                   possible retribution. They may not even know the impact of
                   any online assault of cartels.
                        o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
                   journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand
                   some of these individuals are forced to collude with
                   cartels.               Taxi drivers are often victims of
                   extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the
                   identity of these individuals will not have a significant
                   impact on cartel                   operations. Politicans
                   have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &amp;
                   Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be
                   any consequences from this.
                        o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent
                   cartels are willing to go protect their operations.
                           o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                           o    Cartels have reached out to the computer
                   science community before, coercing computer science majors
                   into working for them.
                           o    This provides the cartels with the
                   possibility of discovering hackers within Mexico.

                    

                   On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                     Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the
                     idea but there are several issues to address and fix
                     here.

                     These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with
                     the discussion:

                          o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why.
                     that's fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                          o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a
                     difference between stealing bank records from government
                     computers and overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                          o     There's no thought out process of what sort
                     of information could anon have on the cartels. What kind
                     of info is kept online and accessible to potential
                     attacks? You seem to be talking about identities, whose?
                     If anything it's dirty cops, politicians and businessmen
                     who need to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
                     Think about why the bloggers and media were killed in
                     previous instances. Was it because they revealed
                     operational details, because they acted as informants,
                     because they exposed links with officials or because
                     they somehow sullied the cartel's reputation? In short,
                     what kind of information is damaging to the cartels
                     themselves?
                          o     Once you identify this info - think about if
                     anon can realistically access it and disseminate it so
                     it causes a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any
                     intelligence capacity except for the technical ability
                     by a very small number of its members to infiltrate
                     certain networks and databases and steal information.
                     Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on a
                     network that is connected to the internet (aka no
                     intranet)? Where else could information be found?
                     Government databases? Once we know what kind of
                     information is accessible, we can also know more about
                     the consequences of dissemination.
                          o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel?
                     Sufficient to trace back attacks? If it's not, there
                     risks to be a lot of killings done by people who may not
                     understand the difference between an anon hacker and a
                     blogger.

                     On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                       wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                       -------- Original Message --------

                        Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                           Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                           From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
                       Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                             To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

                       you've got some of the issues here, but this is going
                       to need a lot more work

                       You need to lay out:

                       a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your
                       trigger section is unclear
                       b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence
                       is, and therefore their vulnerabilities and
                       capabilities
                       c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
                       anything
                       d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to
                       kill anyone who breaches their systems or exposes
                       their connections

                       I also just want to point out that we have reasonable
                       reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very least has
                       some significant levels of sophistication in their
                       online presence, to include the use of cyber
                       currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no
                       reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
                       business online, in a protected fashion.

                       Karen Hooper
                       Latin America Analyst
                       o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                       c: 512.750.7234
                       STRATFOR
                       www.stratfor.com
                       On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                       On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                       Link: themeData

                       Trigger

                       Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy,
                       hackers. Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group
                       famous for...?, lashed out at drug cartels via the
                       Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
                       criminal cartels, including a video released
                       depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a
                       screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent video
                       release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                       criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities
                       of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
                       politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal
                       cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a
                       fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences.
                       The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal
                       cartels and hackers, presents an unprecedented war
                       front for the cartels. The vastly different operations
                       of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
                       Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in
                       handling. i believe that Anonymous has no experience
                       with the cartels. I do not believe for a second that
                       the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                        

                       In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                       mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                       reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped
                       member this should be mentioned right up front.
                       Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit
                       back. Provide enough details so we understand who this
                       guy is and why/how he was abducted. are not met. If
                       Anonymous' claims of possessing revealing information
                       on cartel members and operations are true, cartels
                       will likely respond with violence against individuals
                       revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you mean
                       Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public
                       disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will
                       force the GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous
                       threat complexity i don't understand what this means.
                       You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
                       effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
                       against Anonymous remains unanswered . However,
                       cartels will continue their threats against any
                       individual using online media WC.... you mean tools?
                       or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here.
                       against the cartels.

                        

                       The Battle Space

                       Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two
                       separate realities from each other. Anonymous operates
                       solely in sphere of the computer networks. Anonymous
                       does not experience geographical boundaries. All
                       personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in cyber
                       space.  (That is not entirely true. They are physical
                       people tho live in the real world. They have names and
                       addresses - although most of them are likely outside
                       of MX.)  Anonymous' power base consists of their
                       technical capabilities in hacking. Any information
                       connected to the Internet is vulnerable to exploits by
                       hackers. (Identifying the pc's of individual cartel
                       members in the midst of Mexico's population could be
                       quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
                       has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
                       Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings
                       in revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't
                       run operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money
                       via e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on
                       the web than the jihadists.)

                       Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's
                       power base consists of the perceived anonymity that
                       its members believe themselves to have, real or
                       otherwise, by operating through the internet. This
                       gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
                       and everything to practice general dickery. As the
                       popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll. Only
                       a fraction of the large web of people who identify
                       themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of serious IT
                       capability. 

                       The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far
                       has been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement
                       Agencies.

                       The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets
                       in US and Mexican cities. They are run as a business,
                       always looking to maximize profits and expand. But
                       they are bricks and mortar commerce. Yes..... but they
                       use the internet to launder money and issue commands.
                       We know that Sinaloa does that from insight. There is
                       no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a
                       similar capacity.  Their power base is built by large
                       amounts of revenue and escalating brutal violence.
                       Cartels like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing
                       different types of threats. Cartels are always
                       suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence.
                       While battling each other, cartels still face arrests
                       by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid
                       any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
                       have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and
                       online bloggers in order to cover details of their
                       operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for
                       this discussion. You need to focus on the possible
                       vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
                       have no cyber presence.

                        

                       Anonymous' Weapons

                       Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions
                       against criminal cartels has yet to be seen.
                       Anonymous' only ability to combat cartels lay in
                       information operations, mainly disseminating sensitive
                       information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel
                       statements via social media and defaced websites in
                       Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As
                       Anonymous admitted in their video to cartels, they
                       cannot fight with guns.  The significance of a
                       targeted information operations campaign by
                       technically elite individuals can not be overlooked
                       should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream
                       media outlets and social media blogs as such a threat
                       to their operations, that they have continued to
                       target journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message
                       signed by Los Zetas was placed with a dead female
                       body  more relevantly, on the body of a blogger. The
                       message threatened any users who denounce cartels on
                       blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's
                       not really addressing the subheading

                       As stated earlier, any information connected to the
                       internet risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample
                       reason to suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing
                       information they threaten to release. By releasing
                       identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
                       cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
                       individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate
                       sensitive information is limited by what is available
                       via the Internet. Government computers connected to
                       the Internet should always be considered a possibility
                       of an attack. However, as with the compartmentalized
                       nature of the US governments computer networks,
                       information available to Mexico's intelligence
                       collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you
                       trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

                        

                       Cartel's Defense

                                   A counter response to the video? by the
                       cartels has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous'
                       claims of a kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los
                       Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by
                       hackers so... how has there not been a counter
                       response? also this undermines your statements above
                       about how Anonymous is soley internet based, and
                       underlines the vulnerabilities of associated members.
                       How did they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to
                       that could very well give you some indication to the
                       technical ability of the cartels . As Anonymous exists
                       in abstract reality of the world wide web , the
                       cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely
                       are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has
                       whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in
                       cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good intel
                       indicating that) they are working on disrupting the
                       cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in
                       any region of the world. Personal information
                       including locations is only available if a hacker
                       chooses to divulge it or if the subject of the attack
                       is savvy enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only
                       work for Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of
                       dealing with their online enemy, if they can
                       physically reach out to them. Or start employing
                       hackers of their own under their payroll? Stranger
                       things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                                   Cartels have been known to coerce the
                       services of Mexican citizens with a technical
                       background. Recruiting the help of computer science
                       majors through personal threats has been reported in
                       the past where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since
                       cartels operate in the world of urban violence and
                       drug trafficking, they will likely need the assistance
                       of technical experts to help combat any threat by
                       computer hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside
                       of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is unlikely
                       cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
                       operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement
                       agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
                       experience and resources than cartels, struggle to
                       find hackers through investigations. A) How do you
                       know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they
                       kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not all
                       hackers are equally difficult to track down

                                   In order to compete with an online foe,
                       cartels will likely continue counter tactics they are
                       most familiar with, brute force. Cartels are still
                       capable of their HUMINT operations within Mexico
                       "still"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?. 
                       Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
                       communities will likely be targeted and interrogated
                       by cartel members.  Narco banners and public display
                       of violence will likely continue to be used to scare
                       online media into submission i'm not really seeing the
                       online media-international hacking group connection
                       here.  The cruel manners in which cartels inflict
                       harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
                       encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
                       cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous
                       will remain to be seen until cartels are able to seek
                       out and capture members of the hacker group.. Or the
                       Narcos could call the collective bluff and simply go
                       on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can
                       inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

             --

             Sean Noonan

             Tactical Analyst

             Office: +1 512-279-9479

             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

             www.stratfor.com

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-25 02:33:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1017647_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tristan.reed@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1017743</id>
    <title>[Eurasia] GREECE - Referendum will not be on euro, ministers say
</title>
    <description>   This seems like pretty empty rhetoric as I don't think anyone was ever
   saying that the referendum would be on whether to stay in the eurozone or
   not - but rather that the consequences of the public rejecting the terms
   of the bailout would be expulsion from the euro.

   Referendum will not be on euro, ministers say
       2 Nov 2011
   http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/49924

   Government officials have given assurances that the question that will
   appear on ballot papers in the planned referendum will be on the loan
   contract and the October 27 decision of the eurozone summit of the leaders
   and not on Greece's membership of the eurozone.
    
   "Nobody doubts the European prospect of the country," deputy government
   spokesman Angelos Tolkas told the main evening news bulletin on private
   Mega TV. "This government has taken all the measures for Greece to remain
   strong in the euro."
    
   The comments came as Prime Minister George Papandreou was meeting with G20
   leaders on November 2.
    
   Earlier French and German officials said that a Greek referendum on the
   latest EU bailout deal must happen as soon as possible - and preferably
   before mid-December - to keep to a minimum the period of economic and
   political uncertainty.
    
   Germany's finance minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, urged Greece to stick to
   the aid plan agreed with the eurozone and IMF on October 26 and to avoid
   the dangerous instability posed by the prospect of a referendum.
    
   "It would be helpful if clarity is achieved as soon as possible on which
   path Greece wants to take," Schaeuble told the Hamburger Abendblatt
   newspaper
    
   Meanwhile, French European Affairs Minister Jean Leonetti said that any
   referendum should be held "as soon as possible". Asked if it would better
   for the poll to be completed by mid-December, he said: "It would be
   important that things are decided that way."
    
   German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy have
   summoned Papandreou to crisis talks in Cannes, France, at a summit of G20
   world economies. Preliminary indications are that Merkel, Sarkozy and
   other G20 leaders will meet at 6.30pm local time, and that a smaller
   meeting will follow with Papandreou at 9pm. Ta Nea daily is also reporting
   that Papandreou will hold a separate meeting with US President Barack
   Obama.
    
   In a rare televised address on the steps of the Elysee palace in Paris on
   November 1, Sarkozy did not hide his frustration with Papandreoua**s
   decision to call a referendum, while Merkela**s reaction was more
   measured.
    
   "This announcement took the whole of Europe by surprise," Sarkozy said.
   "The plan ... is the only way to solve Greece's debt problem."
    
   Advance warning
    
   German European Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said in a newspaper
   interview on November 2 that Papandreou's actions had "made the situation
   considerably worse for countries which don't have the highest credit
   rating, and the danger of further setbacks is rising".
    
   He told the daily Die Welt that the Greek leader should have given
   European leaders advance warning of his referendum plans at their twin
   summits last week. The mass-circulation Bild daily said "even the
   chancellor was taken by surprise".
    
   "My worry is that we will have an unstable situation until the referendum.
   The Greeks have many good grounds to vote for the package. The steps we
   decided on are a good opportunity for their country. But there's a lot of
   frustration and resignation in Greece. If the Greeks actually vote no, the
   consequences are unforeseeable," said Oettinger, the EU energy
   commissioner.
    
   However, government spokesman Elias Mossialos denied on November 2 that EU
   leaders were unaware of Papandreoua**s plans to call a referendum.
    
   "Prime Minister George Papandreou had informed our European partners of
   his intentions, but he had not informed them on the exact date of their
   announcement,a** he told private radio station Vima. a**It lies with the
   Greek prime minister when and in what way a political initiative is
   announced. It's a part of our national sovereignty and our political
   initiatives.
    
   Backing
    
   Papandreou won the backing of his cabinet in the early hours of November 2
   to hold a referendum on latest Brussels bailout deal.
    
   The cabinet unanimously backed a proposal after a marathon seven-hour
   meeting that lasted until 3am on Wednesday morning, according to an
   official announcement issued after the meeting.
    
   Ministers also expressed "full support" for the vote of confidence in the
   government called by Papandreou, debate on which begins Wednesday
   afternoon and ends with a roll-call vote at midnight Friday.
    
   Some of his party lawmakers called for him to quit, accusing him of
   endangering Greek euro membership with his shock decision to call a
   popular vote, a move that pummelled the euro and global stocks. But the
   cabinet support at least gives him a stay of execution before a confidence
   vote in parliament on November 4.
    
   "The referendum will be a clear mandate and a clear message in and outside
   Greece on our European course and participation in the euro," Papandreou
   told a cabinet meeting that lasted seven hours, a statement from his
   office said. "No one will be able to doubt Greece's course within the
   euro."
    
   Speaking after the cabinet meeting, government spokesman Mossialos said
   that the technical procedures, the exact date of the referendum and the
   wording of the question to be put to the citizens will be worked out by a
   governmental committee and submitted to the cabinet "in a relatively short
   time" so that the referendum may be held "by the end of the year, if
   possible".
    
   Speaking to public broadcaster Net, Interior Minister Haris Kastanidis
   said that the referendum date could be moved forward from January if all
   the details of the loan agreement has been completed.
    
   "There is a possibility that the referendum will take place earlier, in
   December," he said.
    
   Kastanidis also lashed out at the banking sector, as well as the
   opposition parties, for their stance. He charged that very few banks "have
   put their hand in their pocket to confront the crisis" and that they are
   "confronting the crisis with state support".
    
   Commenting on Friday's confidence vote, the interior minister also
   revealed that the government will carry on even if it hangs on by the skin
   of its teeth, with a single vote from an independent MP.
    
   Speaking to his parliamentary group at noon on November 2, main opposition
   New Democracy (ND) leader Antonis Samaras warned that the Pasok government
   was "desperate and dangerous" and pledged that an ND government would do
   everything necessary to attain Greece's fiscal targets.
    
   Samaras said this could only be done with a different policy that would
   give hope and prospects to the country. (Athens News, Reuters, AMNA)

   --
   Kristen A. Cooper
   Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: (512) 744-4093 M: (512) 619-9414
</description>
    <date>2011-11-02 23:48:48</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1017743_-eurasia-greece-referendum-will-not-be-on-euro-ministers-say.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>kristen.cooper@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1018845</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   Good point. 
   In terrorist terms they are more like grassroots people than AQ core. 
   From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Reply-To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2011 13:11:05 -0500
   To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
   Somehow we have to stop referring to 'anonymous' as a monolith.  They are
   a bunch of different people that essentially get together in an
   online-form of a mob to carry out some action. I'm not sure how to do this
   in writing consistently.  But let's start with shit like 'people joining
   Anonymous chatrooms and claiming to be part of the movement' or something
   like that. 

   Comments in green below.  This is coming together nicely. 

   On 10/24/11 11:19 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of
     these in the US?
      What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
     I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
     whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
     because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
     revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of
     understanding of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is
     expendable to cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of
     coercion.

     Anonymous does not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
     cartels.  mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of el
     chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication as a
     tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable intelligence,
     the government will use it against the cartels. That's a physical
     threat, if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify that
     Anonymous can not directly effect physical security. Any impact to the
     cartel in revealing information will be from actions of rival cartels or
     the GoM. They may release information on a given politician being linked
     to the cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the politician will feel
     an impact (Just because Anonymous says there is a link, doesn't make it
     true). It would be up to others to take action.  I think the way you
     have it worded in the above sentence is good.  Follow with a sentence
     explaining the rest of it, because readers will have the same question
     Karen did.  Something like 'Rather, the threat to cartels would come in
     what information anonymous could expose that is useful to their enemies'

     Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online
     activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to conduct
     significant logistics and business online. We don't know how much, but
     we do know they will have some points of operational vulnerability I
     have heard of cartels doing business online, but don't have specific
     examples which could be used in assessing their vulnerability online.

     by "no consequences" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired,
     arrested or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I
     should say, there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out
     politicians as colluding.
     On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

       Karen Hooper
       Latin America Analyst
       o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
       c: 512.750.7234
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com
       On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
       Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
       possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
       Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by people using the
       banner of Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on
       cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
       find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being
       kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and
       Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting
       flyers ['critical of cartels'?] in Veracruz as part of the Operation
       Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation. [this is good and
       will be enough information to go with, though you'll need a quick
       explanation of what 'operation paperstorm' is.  Adding something in
       the explaining the flyers will work]

       Link: themeData
       Anonymous, a decentralized hacker collective  famous for distributed
       denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government and corporate websites,
       lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
       denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video depicting a
       masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With
       the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
       the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities
       of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who collude with
       criminal cartels do they specify whether or not these are all in
       Mexico? Are some of these in the US?
        What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
       group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
       face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
       was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
       their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
       potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
       presents a unique threat towards TCOs [If TCO= transnational criminal
       organization, it's not really unique.  Many such organizations do
       their crimes online, and have been hacked in response--like the
       nigerian princess scams. I think you should just say it's a unique
       threat to DTOs] . We know of cartels lashing out at online bloggers,
       but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches
       from hackers before. 

       What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
            o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat
       to Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to
       the head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using
       publication as a tool to force government action. If you reveal
       actionable intelligence, the government will use it against the
       cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
            o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
       media
            o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out
       at cartels

       While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
       threat, if it had access to certain types of information:

               -The threat is in the information they can expose that may be
   of use to any cartel enemies.  That could be to the government or other
   cartels or even local citizens (the last one may be a stretch, but i could
   imagine someone discrediting cartel members in the eyes of the public).

            o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims tocut possess
       identifiable information on cartel members 
            o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
       cartels [cut this part here, and make the point at the end of this
       section/paragraph]
            o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
       identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in
       the realm of possibilities for
                   Anonymous
                   o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
       illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are
       known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't
       know how much, but we do know they will have some points of
       operational vulnerability

      -They claim to have information on those that collude with cartels 
   (use the stuff you have above].  Releasing such information could hurt
   cartels' support networks, but most of these people are also easily
   replaceable. 
               -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents have
   access to, and doubt they have such information that provides any sort of
   existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 

       Most Anonymous hackers are likely far removed from the ultra-violent
       world of drug trafficking in Mexico, but it's quite possible that some
       of its members in this campaign are in Mexico and opposed to the
       violence [or something like that.  my limited understanding is there
       are still activist crusader-types in Mexico, yeah?  it seems very
       possible those with a bit of time or computer skills could have joined
       up with anonymous] . As a result, their understanding of cartel
       activities may be limited. Anonymous members in other countries may
       act with confidence when sitting in front of a computer, but this may
       blind them to any possible retribution. They may not even know the
       impact of any online assault of cartels.  [the part below and above is
       written rather normatively.  We need to take that out.  just state the
       facts]
            o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will
       cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are
       forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are often
       victims of extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the
       identity of these individuals will not have a significant impact on
       cartel                   operations. Politicans have been accused of
       working with cartels (Guerrero &amp; Veracruz' governor) before, however
       there has yet to be any consequences from this. by "no consequences"
       what exactly do you mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and
       that happens all the time.
            o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are
       willing to go protect their operations.
               o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
               o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
       community before, coercing computer science majors into working for
       them.
               o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
       discovering hackers within Mexico.
       need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply publishing
       tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the same camp as
       the bloggers  [yes, i think it needs to be clear that their damage
       will be similar to what bloggers or wikileaks can do--limited.  But
       maybe more a danger to themselves, since they are no longer
       challenging governments, but criminal organizations]

        

       On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

         Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there
         are several issues to address and fix here.

         These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
         discussion:

              o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but
         we can't gloss over that fact
              o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference
         between stealing bank records from government computers and
         overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
              o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
         information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
         kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
         talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
         politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
         going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
         killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
         operational details, because they acted as informants, because they
         exposed links with officials or because they somehow sullied the
         cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of information is damaging
         to the cartels themselves?
              o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
         realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of
         damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the
         technical ability by a very small number of its members to
         infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal information. Now
         what kind of information would a cartel keep on a network that is
         connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
         information be found? Government databases? Once we know what kind
         of information is accessible, we can also know more about the
         consequences of dissemination.
              o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
         back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done
         by people who may not understand the difference between an anon
         hacker and a blogger.

         On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

           wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

           -------- Original Message --------

            Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
               Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
               From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
           Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                 To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

           you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a
           lot more work

           You need to lay out:

           a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section
           is unclear
           b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
           therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
           c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
           d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone
           who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

           I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
           insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels
           of sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of
           cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason
           to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
           protected fashion.

           Karen Hooper
           Latin America Analyst
           o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
           c: 512.750.7234
           STRATFOR
           www.stratfor.com
           On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

           On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

           Link: themeData

           Trigger

           Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
           Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed
           out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
           Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released
           depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a screen?
           exactly when?.  With the most recent video release, Anonymous
           makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels. Threats such as
           releasing identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
           politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels.
           The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped
           member otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
           between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
           unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly different
           operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
           Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
           believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
           not believe for a second that the cartels have no experience with
           hackers.

            

           In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as
           a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of
           releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up
           front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit
           back. Provide enough details so we understand who this guy is and
           why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of
           possessing revealing information on cartel members and operations
           are true, cartels will likely respond with violence against
           individuals revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you mean
           Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public disclosure of
           GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take
           action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand
           what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
           effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against Anonymous
           remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue their threats
           against any individual using online media WC.... you mean tools?
           or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here. against the
           cartels.

            

           The Battle Space

           Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
           realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of
           the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical
           boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in
           cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They are physical people
           tho live in the real world. They have names and addresses -
           although most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power
           base consists of their technical capabilities in hacking. Any
           information connected to the Internet is vulnerable to exploits by
           hackers. (Identifying the pc's of individual cartel members in the
           midst of Mexico's population could be quite difficult.  Remember
           that most of what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if
           you are Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in
           revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't run operations
           on the web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are
           also far less dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

           Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base
           consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe
           themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the
           internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
           and everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme
           goes, anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large
           web of people who identify themselves as "anonymous" have any sort
           of serious IT capability. 

           The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been
           from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

           The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
           Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
           maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
           commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money and
           issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight. There
           is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar
           capacity.  Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue
           and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
           experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels are
           always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence. While
           battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement
           Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in the flow of
           drugs and money, cartels have targeted media outlets. Murdering
           journalists and online bloggers in order to cover details of their
           operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this
           discussion. You need to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of
           the cartels. Don't just assume they have no cyber presence.

            

           Anonymous' Weapons

           Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
           criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
           combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating
           sensitive information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel
           statements via social media and defaced websites in Mexico you
           mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their
           video to cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance
           of a targeted information operations campaign by technically elite
           individuals can not be overlooked should not be underestimated.
           Cartels view main stream media outlets and social media blogs as
           such a threat to their operations, that they have continued to
           target journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by
           Los Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on
           the body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
           denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive here,
           and it's not really addressing the subheading

           As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks
           disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest
           Anonymous is capable of possessing information they threaten to
           release. By releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
           Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
           individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
           information is limited by what is available via the Internet.
           Government computers connected to the Internet should always be
           considered a possibility of an attack. However, as with the
           compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer networks,
           information available to Mexico's intelligence collection may not
           be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This isn't
           clear at all

            

           Cartel's Defense

                       A counter response to the video? by the cartels has
           yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped
           member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the
           threat posed by hackers so... how has there not been a counter
           response? also this undermines your statements above about how
           Anonymous is soley internet based, and underlines the
           vulnerabilities of associated members. How did they find teh
           Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well give you some
           indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As Anonymous
           exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the cartels
           will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed for them
           Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies dedicated to
           fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good
           intel indicating that) they are working on disrupting the
           cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in any region
           of the world. Personal information including locations is only
           available if a hacker chooses to divulge it or if the subject of
           the attack is savvy enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only
           work for Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
           online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
           employing hackers of their own under their payroll? Stranger
           things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                       Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
           Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help
           of computer science majors through personal threats has been
           reported in the past where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since
           cartels operate in the world of urban violence and drug
           trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of technical
           experts to help combat any threat by computer hackers.  While
           identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is
           unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers operating
           outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies such as the FBi,
           with far more technical experience and resources than cartels,
           struggle to find hackers through investigations. A) How do you
           know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???)
           B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult
           to track down

                       In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
           likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute
           force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within
           Mexico "still"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?. 
           Individuals with alleged connections to hacker communities will
           likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco
           banners and public display of violence will likely continue to be
           used to scare online media into submission i'm not really seeing
           the online media-international hacking group connection here.  The
           cruel manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer
           hackers have unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether
           the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous
           will remain to be seen until cartels are able to seek out and
           capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the
           collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience
           that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 20:33:26</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1018845_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1022457</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored cyber
   warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing that, since you
   can conduct a cyber attack without associating with a hacker group and
   still deny / cover actions on behalf of the State. An individual attacking
   US computer assets from China, may be working by himself or on behalf of
   the Chinese government, but unless the US has other intel on the Chinese
   government's cyber warfare activities in order to corroborate there is
   little capability to distinguish.

   It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network operations do
   not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets from SIGINT would not
   directly help you track an individual responsible for hacking State run
   servers. In the past, I have turned to SIGINT organizations for
   collections on computer related material, but this was due to the US being
   behind in cyber warfare, and not knowing where to assign responsibility.
   However, this has changed dramatically in the last couple of years.

   Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As an extreme
   scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go to a Starbucks with
   free public wifi, and never attribute the online activity to something
   revealing (accessing personal email accounts, tweeting, entering personal
   information to the laptop, etc..), and begin hacking government email
   accounts then never use the laptop again. Unless LEA could get an accurate
   description of my appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible security
   cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

   Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to these
   enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied to specific
   computer-related activities because of the difficulty in identifying
   individuals.

   I think the most likely way for a "Anonymous cover" to be blown, would be
   the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a common participant in
   "Anonymous" activities, was working for a State? Anonymous has denounced
   state governments before, if that State agent organizes an attack amongst
   his IRC / Twitter buddies, what signs could a LEA look for to distinguish?

   On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a bit)

     1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything actually
     harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't, but i'm very
     doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first real case where they
     could do some minor damage--to individual people, not not to an
     organization or anything that would come as a serious or strategic
     threat. 

     2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is actually pretty
     good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as a cover, but that would be
     pretty easy to bungle, and could probably still be attributed if
     important enough to those agencies.  The recent attack on Sony actually
     brings this issue up- Whoever is calling themselves anonymous denies
     they did it.  And keep in mind how much they have claimed an publicized
     attacks in the past, even before they were carried out.  The attack on
     the Playstation Network was more sophisticated than anonymous' usual
     work (though potentially coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that
     distracted Sony's IT security).  But whoever did it, again, no real
     damage came of it.  Congress is holding hearings over data security, but
     this is no different than the OC groups stealing your credit card
     information.  LE will go after them, have some success, but the threat
     is not that large. 
     On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

       Link: themeData

       I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to have a
       broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no nothing, or
       almost nothing about what this group is and the threat it poses.
       Reviewing their list of attacks
       (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most of the
       cases, they are the "good" guys, sort of a Robin Hood of the internet
       . The interesting thing when it comes to their interactions with the
       cartels is the dubious role they play: at the same time they can be
       fighting crime by revealing cartel members/supporters, but they can
       also put lives in risk.

       However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by Anonymous.
       The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can conduct a cyber
       attack under "Anonymous" is worrisome.
       (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

       If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government websites,
       or if I am just a internet user, I would like to know more about these
       guys. Who they are? What are they interested in? How they operate? Who
       they have targeted so far? How can I defend myself from them? In what
       countries are they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use
       them to achieve any particular goal?

       On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

         nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else can
         build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they pose to
         innocent people caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing
         on journalists or taxi drivers they show little understanding of the
         situation.  This has long term implications in not just Mexico. 
         They don't consider the consequences of their actions and they act
         without understanding the environment.  It was the same when they
         released information on the Sony Playstation network to protest
         Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

         On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

           Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
           possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
           Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by Anonymous,
           threatens revealing personal information on cartels as well as
           states a member had been kidnapped. I could not find any sources
           outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being kidnapped.
           According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous
           Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting flyers in
           Veracruz as part of the Operation Paperstorm protest, although
           that is speculation.

           Link: themeData
           Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
           denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed
           out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
           Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked
           individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the
           most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
           the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing
           identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists
           who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los
           Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
           consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
           was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
           their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
           potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and
           hackers, presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels
           lashing out at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting
           on cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

           What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
           threat to Mexican cartels.
                o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
           media
                o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash
           out at cartels

           While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
           threat
                o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
           identifiable information on cartel members
                o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire
           on cartels
                o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
           communications, identifiable information on cartels members have
           to be considered in the realm of possibilities for
                       Anonymous
                       o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
           illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

           Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
           ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result,
           their understanding of cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous
           may act with confidence when sitting in front of a computer, but
           this may blind them to any possible retribution. They may not even
           know the impact of any online assault of cartels.
                o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
           will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
           individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
           drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
           halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not
           have a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
           Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &amp;
           Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
           consequences from this.
                o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
           are willing to go protect their operations.
                   o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                   o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
           community before, coercing computer science majors into working
           for them.
                   o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
           discovering hackers within Mexico.

            

           On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

             Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
             there are several issues to address and fix here.

             These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
             discussion:

                  o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine
             but we can't gloss over that fact
                  o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference
             between stealing bank records from government computers and
             overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                  o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
             information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
             kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
             talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
             politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
             going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
             killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
             operational details, because they acted as informants, because
             they exposed links with officials or because they somehow
             sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
             information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                  o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
             realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a
             measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity
             except for the technical ability by a very small number of its
             members to infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
             information. Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on
             a network that is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)?
             Where else could information be found? Government databases?
             Once we know what kind of information is accessible, we can also
             know more about the consequences of dissemination.
                  o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to
             trace back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of
             killings done by people who may not understand the difference
             between an anon hacker and a blogger.

             On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

               wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

               -------- Original Message --------

                Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                   Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                   From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
               Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                     To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

               you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need
               a lot more work

               You need to lay out:

               a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger
               section is unclear
               b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
               therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
               c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
               anything
               d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill
               anyone who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

               I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
               insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
               levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
               the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
               is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
               business online, in a protected fashion.

               Karen Hooper
               Latin America Analyst
               o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
               c: 512.750.7234
               STRATFOR
               www.stratfor.com
               On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

               On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

               Link: themeData

               Trigger

               Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
               Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?,
               lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
               denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
               released depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a
               screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent video release,
               Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels.
               Threats such as releasing identities of Mexican? American?
               taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who collude
               with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
               release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences.
               The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels
               and hackers, presents an unprecedented war front for the
               cartels. The vastly different operations of Anonymous and Los
               Zetas leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have
               little experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no
               experience with the cartels. I do not believe for a second
               that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                

               In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
               mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
               their demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be
               mentioned right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is
               threatening to hit back. Provide enough details so we
               understand who this guy is and why/how he was abducted. are
               not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing revealing
               information on cartel members and operations are true, cartels
               will likely respond with violence against individuals revealed
               as opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous members?.
               It also is likely that public disclosure of GOM officials who
               collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving
               the Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this
               means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
               effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against
               Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue
               their threats against any individual using online media WC....
               you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers
               here. against the cartels.

                

               The Battle Space

               Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
               realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
               of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
               geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
               exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
               are physical people tho live in the real world. They have
               names and addresses - although most of them are likely outside
               of MX.)  Anonymous' power base consists of their technical
               capabilities in hacking. Any information connected to the
               Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying
               the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's
               population could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of
               what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
               Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in
               revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't run
               operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money via
               e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on the web than
               the jihadists.)

               Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
               base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
               believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
               through the internet. This gives an opening for people
               disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
               dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience =
               troll. Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
               themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of serious IT
               capability. 

               The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has
               been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

               The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US
               and Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking
               to maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
               commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
               and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from
               insight. There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't
               have a similar capacity.  Their power base is built by large
               amounts of revenue and escalating brutal violence. Cartels
               like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing different types of
               threats. Cartels are always suffering at the hands of cartel
               on cartel violence. While battling each other, cartels still
               face arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to
               avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
               have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
               bloggers in order to cover details of their operations. ok...
               but that's kind of a red herrng for this discussion. You need
               to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't
               just assume they have no cyber presence.

                

               Anonymous' Weapons

               Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
               criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability
               to combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
               disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
               anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites
               in Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
               admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
               guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
               campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
               overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels view main
               stream media outlets and social media blogs as such a threat
               to their operations, that they have continued to target
               journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los
               Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on
               the body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
               denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive
               here, and it's not really addressing the subheading

               As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
               risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to
               suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing information they
               threaten to release. By releasing identities of individuals
               cooperating with Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life
               of those individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate
               sensitive information is limited by what is available via the
               Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
               should always be considered a possibility of an attack.
               However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the US
               governments computer networks, information available to
               Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy to acquire. 
               what are you trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

                

               Cartel's Defense

                           A counter response to the video? by the cartels
               has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a
               kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun
               addressing the threat posed by hackers so... how has there not
               been a counter response? also this undermines your statements
               above about how Anonymous is soley internet based, and
               underlines the vulnerabilities of associated members. How did
               they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that could very
               well give you some indication to the technical ability of the
               cartels . As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
               wide web , the cartels will face a number of challenges which
               rarely are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has
               whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You
               can assume (and we have good intel indicating that) they are
               working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening
               cartels, can operate in any region of the world. Personal
               information including locations is only available if a hacker
               chooses to divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy
               enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only work for
               Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
               online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or
               start employing hackers of their own under their payroll?
               Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                           Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
               Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
               help of computer science majors through personal threats has
               been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported
               where?.  Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence
               and drug trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of
               technical experts to help combat any threat by computer
               hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been
               demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable of
               identifying any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
               enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
               experience and resources than cartels, struggle to find
               hackers through investigations. A) How do you know they are
               not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm
               goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult to
               track down

                           In order to compete with an online foe, cartels
               will likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar
               with, brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
               operations within Mexico "still"? why would we assume they
               wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
               communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
               members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
               likely continue to be used to scare online media into
               submission i'm not really seeing the online
               media-international hacking group connection here.  The cruel
               manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer
               hackers have unlikely encountered before in their life.
               Whether the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence of
               Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels are able to
               seek out and capture members of the hacker group.. Or the
               Narcos could call the collective bluff and simply go on and
               shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 20:38:17</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1022457_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tristan.reed@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1024771</id>
    <title>Re: For Comment:  Wikileaks and the State Department Documents
</title>
    <description>   When I was doing research in grad school as part of a year long study of
   the history of KSA, I went through volumes of declassified memos sent by
   the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh. One such memo, from 1947, was in response to a
   query from DoS about an incident of food poisoning at a royal party where
   a prince had died. The memo explained that the partying folks ran out of
   booze and began to brew an in house cocktail, which was the cause of the
   poisoning. That memo would have caused an uproar back then in the nascent
   KSA and King Abdul-aziz would have had some major shit to deal with.
   Luckily for the Saudis, it was a world in which there was much more
   tighter control on official communications and the kingdom existed in the
   dark ages. Today where even terrorists have access to advanced means of
   communication, any such revelations could have major consequences.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Sun, 28 Nov 2010 06:28:40 -0600 (CST)
   To: &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;; 'Analysts'&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: 'George Friedman'&lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: RE: For Comment: Wikileaks and the State Department Documents

   Copy. Nate is going to walk this through edit for me this morning so we
   can get it out.

    

    

    

   From: George Friedman [mailto:friedman@att.blackberry.net]
   Sent: Sunday, November 28, 2010 7:27 AM
   To: scott stewart; Analysts
   Cc: 'George Friedman'
   Subject: Re: For Comment: Wikileaks and the State Department Documents

    

   Exactly right. We don't know what's there. But we know this much.
   Ambassadors met foreign ministers and gave them specifics of what to
   expect. So what they expect caused them to take significant steps.

   Bottom line. We don't know what's coming. Let's just be ready.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;

   Date: Sun, 28 Nov 2010 06:23:22 -0600 (CST)

   To: &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;; 'Analysts'&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;

   Cc: 'George Friedman'&lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;

   Subject: RE: For Comment: Wikileaks and the State Department Documents

    

   Thought of this way, this is wildly unpredictable. We just don't know
   what's there but washington is prepping everyone for the worst because dc
   is scared. This could certainly end the careers of us diplomats in several
   countries. We just don't know.

    

    

   --But DC also went hog wild with damage control efforts for the last two
   releases (they had that huge interagency task force), and those releases
   were not nearly as damaging as we were initially led to believe.  Remember
   that the media outlets who have been given early access to these documents
   really want to hype this for the ad revenue potential. They will beat this
   horse for all it is worth.

    

   Because of that, I want to keep this piece heavily caveated until we see
   the goods.

    

    

    

    

   From: George Friedman [mailto:friedman@att.blackberry.net]
   Sent: Sunday, November 28, 2010 5:07 AM
   To: scott stewart; Analysts
   Cc: 'George Friedman'
   Subject: Re: For Comment: Wikileaks and the State Department Documents

    

   I think it may go deeper than that. It may reveal that some negotiations
   were not carried out by the us in good faith, that the us was supporting
   anti government factions in some countries, and so on. The view in europe
   is that the leaks could create a public uproar that will force short term
   policy changes. Apart from the personal impact there is a domestic
   political issue in these countries.

   One of the oddities of our classification system is the focus on sources.
   Opinions are not seen as nearly as sensitive as hard intelligence. But in
   this case the opinions of american diplomats, however its significance
   will be viewed by washington officials will be seen in a very different
   way by local media, public and politicians. It will be used against the
   united states.

   Imagine that memos from the embassy in poland ridicules the polish efforts
   in afghanistan. Might have a low clearance level in dc, but could threaten
   a government that has made its close relations with the us its platform. A
   memo treating polish soldiers as incompetent would not have a high
   secutity clearance if it was simply written by a second secretary, but
   could explode us-polish relations or bring down the government. People
   will believe this the american view. Don't use this as an example.

   So it isn't simply the family getting to read what uncle charley thinks of
   them. It is everyone the family knows at their work, their church and
   bowling league learning that a member of his family thinks uncle charley
   is bipolar, and likes young boys. Oh, and that he plans to get uncle
   charley into a deal where we take his money because he is too dumb to
   protect himself.

   Thought of this way, this is wildly unpredictable. We just don't know
   what's there but washington is prepping everyone for the worst because dc
   is scared. This could certainly end the careers of us diplomats in several
   countries. We just don't know.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;

   Date: Sat, 27 Nov 2010 20:53:51 -0600 (CST)

   To: 'Analyst List'&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;

   Cc: 'George Friedman'&lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;

   Subject: RE: For Comment: Wikileaks and the State Department Documents

    

   To explain the blow-back potential of this release to my wife, I told her
   that it is like us going to a family reunion and then having her tell all
   my family members all the observations and comments I've made about them
   over the years to her, thinking all my comments and observations would be
   held in confidence.

    

   Everybody in the world might know that Uncle Herb is crazy or Aunt Betty
   is a lush (heck, they might even recognize the problems themselves), but
   if they learn you`ve said such things about them, they are likely to
   become quite offended, and maybe even cut you out of any inheritance.

    

   This is the kind of thing that can hurt people's pride. Same thing with
   these notes from meetings with foreign leaders.

    

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of scott stewart
   Sent: Saturday, November 27, 2010 9:33 PM
   To: 'Analyst List'
   Cc: 'George Friedman'
   Subject: For Comment: Wikileaks and the State Department Documents

    

    

   Wikileaks and the State Department Documents

    

   The latest batch of classified U.S. government documents that is being
   released by Wikileaks would appear to be very different from the others.
   Like the [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20101027_wikileaks_and_culture_classification]
   last two large groups of documents, this one also was allegedly downloaded
   by a U.S. Army Soldier, PFC Bradley Manning, from the U.S. government's
   Secret Internet Protocol Router Network (SIPRNet). SIPRNet is a network
   used to distribute classified but not particularly sensitive information
   classified at the secret level and below. However, while the last two
   installments of documents involved battlefield reports from U.S. forces in
   Iraq and Afghanistan, this latest group allegedly involves some 260,000
   messages authored by the U.S Department of State, many of which appear to
   have been sent by U.S. Embassies and Consulates abroad.

    

   State Department messages are called cables in State Department parlance,
   a reference that hearkens back to the days when embassies really did send
   cables rather than satellite transmissions or email messages via SIPRNet.
   The cables were intentionally placed on SIPRNet, under an information
   sharing initiative known as "net-centric diplomacy" that was enacted in
   the shadow of the criticism levied against the U.S. government for not
   sharing intelligence information that perhaps could have prevented the
   9/11 attacks. Net-Centric diplomacy ensured that even though Manning was a
   low-level U.S. Army soldier, he had access to hundreds of thousands of
   State Department cables by virtue of his access to SIPRNet.

    

   It is important to understand that SIPRNet only contains information
   classified at the Secret level and below. Because of this, it will not
   contain highly classified information pertaining to U.S. Government
   intelligence operations, methods or sources. This information also will
   not contain the most sensitive Diplomatic information passed between the
   State Department Headquarters in Foggy Bottom and it constellation of
   diplomatic posts overseas.  The fact that much of the diplomatic message
   traffic being released was unclassified and the most heavily classified
   was at the Secret level does not mean that the release will not cause real
   pain or embarrassment for the U.S. Government. In fact it is quite
   possible that these documents will do far more to damage U.S. foreign
   relations that the last two batches of documents released by Wikileaks.

    

   Some of the documents reportedly contain the minutes held with foreign
   leaders. Such reports may contain gossip, opinion and even evaluations of
   the intellect and mental state of foreign leaders by U.S. diplomats. While
   such details are useful to keep Foggy Bottom informed about the progress
   of such meetings and negotiations, revealing them to the public could
   prove quite embarrassing, as could reports of the U.S. government meeting
   with foreign opposition or militant groups. 

    

   We have received reports that U.S. ambassadors and their diplomatic staff
   have been meeting with representatives of foreign governments over the
   past several days to prepare them for the release of these documents. 
   Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has also reportedly been busy by phone.
   The U.S. government could be conducting this preparation out of an
   abundance of caution, and this release of documents could prove to be as
   much of a bust as the last two. It is, however, possible that this batch
   of documents will prove to be more incendiary and will provoke a much more
   dramatic international reaction. Like the rest of the world, we are
   awaiting the release of the documents so that we can attempt to make that
   assessment. 

    

    

    

   Scott Stewart

   STRATFOR

   Office: 814 967 4046

   Cell: 814 573 8297

   scott.stewart@stratfor.com

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-28 13:57:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1024771_re-for-comment-wikileaks-and-the-state-department-documents-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1025066</id>
    <title>RE: Wikileaks
</title>
    <description>This is also still stuff from PFC Bradley Manning. There were allegations
early on that he had downloaded something like 260,000 state department
cables. 

This is also probably secret stuff at the most and will not jeopardize any
intelligence sources and methods. But there could be political backlash. 


-----Original Message-----
From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
On Behalf Of Reva Bhalla
Sent: Thursday, November 25, 2010 2:30 PM
To: Analyst List
Cc: friedman@att.blackberry.net; Analyst List
Subject: Re: Wikileaks

Yes, will be ready to go through it with Emre. This is the last thing  
they need after getting bmd. Depending on how bad this gets it could  
create problems for akp in election yr.




Sent from my iPhone

On Nov 25, 2010, at 12:23 PM, Emre Dogru &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;  
wrote:

&gt; I will cover mesa countries in coordination with the rest of mesa  
&gt; team.
&gt;
&gt; Sent from my iPhone
&gt;
&gt; On Nov 25, 2010, at 20:00, "George Friedman" &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net 
&gt; &gt; wrote:
&gt;
&gt;&gt; We need to be ready to go through this stuff and identify things.  
&gt;&gt; Unlike the military stuff this seems important.
&gt;&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2010-11-26 00:27:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1025066_re-wikileaks-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1025329</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - AUSTRALIA/CHINA - Resources Tax - CN65
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE: CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator.  Source is 
   well-connected politically, militarily and economically.  He has become a
   private businessman helping foreign companies with M&amp;As
   PUBLICATION: Yes but with no attribution
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

   Xstrata has announced that it has cancelled all exploration in
   Queensland's NW resources province.  This is a huge area of Queensland
   centred around Mt Isa.  
   By way of explanation, Xstrata bought MIM (Mt Isa Mines) about a decade
   ago.  MIM opened up the NW minerals province in the 1920s, and the Mt Isa
   mine is still one of the world's largest producers of copper, lead, silver
   and zinc.  The province has also spawned other mines such as Mary Kathleen
   (Australia's first uranium mine), Ernest Henry (copper gold mine), George
   Fisher (lead, zinc, silver), Lady Annie (copper) and Century (the world's
   second largest zinc mine).
   This is a major statement of no confidence, and also a hit to overall
   revenue. The point to note is that if the companies do not explore on
   their exploration tenements, they forfeit them.  This leaves the door open
   for the Chinese to come in and snap them up, as I predicted.

   In another note on the topic in response to whether or not all of the
   backlash against Rudd for the resources task is really bluster and whether
   or not the mining companies can actually do anything about it more than
   just gripe:

   On Rudd and the RSPT, it is very complex.  Companies like Fortescue and
   Xstrata are serious about cancelling projects and exploration.  There is a
   difference, too, between the coal miners and the metalliferous miners.
    Coal exploration has a much lower risk profile in Australia because of
   the uniformity of the coal measure in Eastern Australia.  That is not the
   case with iron ore and other metals which are the result of volcanic,
   rather than sedimentary processes.  Coal miners will continue to invest
   but metalliferous miners will not. This is not a bluff.  These guys are
   fair dinkum.
   As to the application of the tax, Rudd is not saying that the proceeds of
   the RSPT will go to pensions.  In fact the proceeds go to consolidated
   revenue and are therefore unhypothecated.
   The Rudd line is that part of the money raised from the RSPT will go to
   fund reductions in company tax, which will then be taken from the
   companies in an increased in the company contribution to superannuation.
    Because it funds superannuation, there is not benefit to current
   pensioners.
   Bu the problem is that the RSPT has wiped billions of dollars from the
   value of the stock market, and therefore from the value of existing
   pension funds.  The increase in the company contribution rate to super
   will not, in the short to medium term, offset the losses from the value of
   share portfolios.
   Overall public sentiment is probably against the tax 55% to 45%.  If I can
   find the latest Morgan Poll figures, I shall send them to you.
   Rudd's popularity has slumped.  There has been a bounce for the Coalition.
    Some polls put the Coalition in front of a 2PP (two party preferred)
   basis, others have Labor ahead by 0.5% on a 2PP basis.  What I do know is
   that the Coalition needs more than 3% lead on a 2PP basis at the moment to
   win government, because the Australian electorate always swings to the
   government in the second half of an election campaign.
</description>
    <date>2010-05-27 16:59:30</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1025329_insight-australia-china-resources-tax-cn65-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>colibasanu@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1025951</id>
    <title>[alpha] ARGENTINA-CHINA RELATIONS - MEETING/SEMINAR AT
	ARGENTINE/THINK TANK
</title>
    <description>   This evening I attended a meeting at the Argentine Council on Foreign
   Relations (CARI). The meeting was about Argentina-China relations. CARI is
   an Argentine think tank that was created by Argentine diplomats, scholars,
   private businesses to debate and study ArgentinaA's international
   relations.

   Today, it was CARIA's China group studies headed by a prominent Argentine
   ambassador, especially during Nestor KirchenerA's presidency that promoted
   a debate about Argentina-China relations.  I was really surprised with
   this meeting, because I thought the debate about how to deal with China
   was going to be similar to some IA've witnessed in Brazil where some
   diplomats, scholars, think tanks etca*| have started to re-think BrazilA's
   relations with China as the import of Chinese products have started to
   increase considerably.  This is not what I saw this evening at CARI. Most
   of the people at this meeting today are current Argentine diplomats and
   they were pretty much saying about how China is card that they can play
   against the US and how Argentina needs to start strengthening relations
   with China. They said that every time a high rank Chinese military officer
   comes to Argentina, the US embassy goes ballistic and the Argentine govt,
   of course, loves it. They said that Argentina needs to cooperate with
   China in the areas of biotechnology, bio-fuels, telecommunications, and
   wind power. They also said that China in terms of defense cooperation has
   categorized South America into 3 groups. One group is the one that they
   have signed most defense cooperation agreements with, which are: Brazil,
   Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay. A 2nd group is the one that they sell
   weapons: Venezuela, Ecuador and Bolivia. 3rd one is the one that they have
   more navy exchanges, which are the ones on the Pacific Coast: Peru, Chile,
   Ecuador, and Colombia. One of CARIA's member who is an Argentine diplomat
   said that one of the problems with China is that a lot of Latin American
   military officers are being trained in China, but Chinese military
   officers do not come to Latin America to spend some time and have some
   exchange with Latin American military officers. My feeling is that it
   seems that Argentina perceives China in a more positive way than Brazil. I
   heard several times during the meeting how China was important for
   Argentina to diversify its trade partner and also use it as a card against
   the US. 

   Paulo Gregoire
   Latin America Monitor
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-02 01:01:04</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 22:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1025951_-alpha-argentina-china-relations-meeting-seminar-at.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>paulo.gregoire@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1026472</id>
    <title>[MESA] SYRIA/KSA/LEBANON - Quotes on the Syria-Arab League Peace
	Plan
</title>
    <description>    This includes highlights of the statements from Syrian media and two     
    different Saudi papers.  Just so we can keep track of the overt Saudi    
    sentiment regarding the Arab League plan and Syria.                      
    BBC Monitoring quotes from Middle East Arabic press for 8 Nov 11         
                                                                             
    The following is a selection of quotes from editorials and comment       
    published in the 8 November 2011 editions of Arabic language newspapers  
    in the Middle East and North Africa, as available to the BBC at 0800     
    gmt. Any material from the previous day is indicated as such. Quotes     
    from Palestinian newspapers and those published in the UK are being      
    filed separately.                                                        
                                                                             
                          Syria-Arab League peace plan                       
                                                                             
    Syria's Al-Thawrah: [govt-owned]: "Straightforward and without any       
    embarrassment and in the midst of steps taken by Syria to stop violence, 
    Washington publicly and arrogantly calls on Syrian armed men to not      
    'surrender their arms' in an attempt to foil efforts made to end the     
    fabricated crisis in Syria. What does this mean? It simply means it is   
    new evidence to direct US involvement in violence and sedition in Syria  
    and its encouragement of armed groups to go ahead with their criminal    
    acts against the Syrian people." (Commentary by Yunis Khalaf-            
    "Exceptional US sponsorship")                                            
                                                                             
    Saudi Al-Watan: [privately-owned, pro-govt]: "Time is gradually running  
    out for the Syrian regime and the gap is widening between the political  
    reforms that the Arab League has demanded to stop violence in Syria and  
    measures expected to be adopted by the emergency ministerial meeting of  
    Arab foreign ministers on 12 November... We warn the Syrian regime not   
    against protesters' call for international intervention but for regime's 
    pursuit to get Syria involved in a fierce Iran, particularly in light of 
    the standoff between Iran and the West over the former's nuclear         
    programme... The Arab League peace plan in Syria and Damascus' approval  
    of it are the last lifeboat for the Syrian regime. The Syrian regime     
    should resort to real national dialogue and recognize the opposition as  
    an influential part of the society." (Editorial- "Syria, racing against  
    time")                                                                   
                                                                             
    Saudi Al-Riyadh: [privately-owned, pro-govt]: "The Arab League will hold 
    a meeting on Syria on 12 November. However, does it have the mechanism   
    to put pressure to bear on Damascus? Let's suppose that an Arab League   
    resolution would be made suspending Syria's membership in the Arab       
    organization. I think the maximum the Arab League can do in this regard  
    is to move the issue of protecting the Syrian people to the UN Security  
    Council to take resolutions under an Arab umbrella... Evidence to        
    failure of the Arab League project is that it is objected to by the      
    Syrian opposition inside and outside the country. The Syrian opposition  
    claims that the Arab League gave the Syrian regime a chance to bluff     
    international public opinion... Let's see the Arab stance represented by 
    the Arab League. However, let's also think about the league's role in    
    Tunisian, Egyptian, Libyan, Yemeni and Syrian uprisings." (Editorial-    
    "Damascus, hiding true political motives")                               
                                                                             
    Lebanon's Al-Safir: [independent, leftist]: "The Syrian opposition       
    rushed yesterday into announcing that the Arab League peace plan on      
    Syria has failed. Moreover, it called yesterday for moving beyond Arab   
    solutions to the crisis; internationalization... Arabs and the           
    international community are monitoring the situation in Syria from a     
    distance and they don't have the desire or ability to intervene there.   
    The Syrian regime understands this fact very well... For many reasons,   
    the Syrian regime looks more self-confident because it believes that the 
    battle is in its final conclusive stages." (Commentary by Sati           
    Nur-al-Din- "Light at beginning of tunnel")                              
                                                                             
                                  Iran-Nuclear                               
                                                                             
    Qata r's Al-Watan: [privately-owned, pro-govt]: "It seems that the       
    Iranian nuclear crisis is on its way for escalation anew thanks to an    
    extensive Israeli propaganda campaign ahead of an IAEA report that is    
    expected to criticize Iran with harshest possible terms. As per leaked   
    information circulated in Israeli media, Western experts, who have       
    looked into the intelligence bits of the IAEA report, believe that Iran  
    has got the know-how and technology required to build a nuclear bomb     
    within months... It also seems that the IAEA under its new director      
    general Yukiya Amano would be stricter in dealing with Iran compared to  
    its former director general Muhammad al-Barad'i." (Commentary by Mazin   
    Hammad- "IAEA, Iranian bomb")                                            
                                                                             
    UAE's Al-Khalij: [indep,leftist]: "It seems that the most prominent      
    feature in the 'war of nerves' that is currently shaping in the media    
    about the possibility of dealing a unilateral Israeli military blow to   
    Iran in cooperation with the USA or Britain or other allies is that      
    Washington is officially avoiding any talk about this strike. US         
    President Obama just talked about need to put pressure on Tehran... The  
    least Obama needs ahead of next year's presidential polls is to take a   
    decision regarding war on Iran given the chronic economic crisis that    
    his country is facing, which makes it impossible for the USA to cover    
    the expenses of a fourth war." (Commentary by Ma'mun al-Husayni- "Israel 
    wars, exporting crises")                                                 
                                                                             
    Source: Quotes package from BBC Monitoring, in English 08 Nov 11         
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MECai wm                                                     

              A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011
</description>
    <date>2011-11-08 22:21:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1026472_-mesa-syria-ksa-lebanon-quotes-on-the-syria-arab-league.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mesa@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ashley.harrison@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:mesa@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1026631</id>
    <title>[Eurasia] Fwd: GREECE - Greece reshuffles military chief amid crisis
</title>
    <description>                  Greece reshuffles military chief amid crisis

   http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/greece-reshuffles-military-chief-amid-crisis-20111102-1muen.html

   November 2, 2011 - 7:42AM

   Greece on Tuesday reshuffled its military chiefs amid a political crisis
   that could see a government downfall following a controversial decision to
   put an EU debt rescue deal to a referendum.

   A state security council under Prime Minister George Papandreou replaced
   the heads of the general staff, the army, navy and airforce, and
   discharged a dozen army and navy officers, the defence ministry said in a
   statement.

   A defence ministry source told AFP that the reshuffle was previously
   scheduled and not linked to political developments.

   But opposition parties attacked the government over the move.

   "You're finished, hands off the armed forces," said conservative New
   Democracy shadow defence minister Margaritis Tzimas.

   "There is no government in the country, one by one its lawmakers are
   jumping ship," Tzimas said, calling the reshuffle "undemocratic".

   The other parties also questioned the government's motives.

   "This heightens the climate of uncertainty and concern among public
   opinion," said the Democratic Left party.

   Papandreou's shock announcement for a referendum early next year and a
   confidence vote on Friday sparked calls for early elections and a
   defection, leaving the government with just 152 deputies in the 300-seat
   parliament.

   The hard-fought deal agreed last Thursday after marathon talks in Brussels
   included an agreement to write off 100 billion euros ($A132.06 billion)
   ($137 billion) of debt owed by Greece.

   With leaders of the world's 20 biggest economies getting ready for a
   summit in Cannes focused on the economic crisis, Papandreou's unexpected
   move triggered fears that the EU's rescue efforts could rapidly unravel.

   AFP

   Read more:
   http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/greece-reshuffles-military-chief-amid-crisis-20111102-1muen.html#ixzz1cUipNwT0
   Sincerely,

   Marko Primorac
   Tactical Analyst
   STRATFOR
   221 W 6th Street, Suite 400
   Austin, TX 78701
   T: +1 512.744.4300 ext. 4115 A| M: +1 717.557.8480 A| F: +1 512.744.4334
   www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-01 23:15:10</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-07 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1026631_-eurasia-fwd-greece-greece-reshuffles-military-chief-amid.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.primorac@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1026833</id>
    <title>Re: G3/B3* - GREECE - Papa speech: rejects snap elections,
	doesn't resign	and still defends referendum
</title>
    <description>   But the original point is that he maintains the referendum was a good
   idea... for him. No contest on it being irrelevant at this point.

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Nov 4, 2011, at 19:01, Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   wrote:

     I don't think the referendum idea came from extraneous forces but was a
     misguided attempt to discharge responsibility. As you said, the
     pressures on P are EU and domestic, the referendum came from neither.
     Therefore, id there is one thing he knows he will do it's NOT having a
     referendum.

     Sent from my iPhone
     On Nov 4, 2011, at 18:56, "George Friedman"
     &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt; wrote:

       He doesn't know what he will do. He is riding the tiger caught between
       the eu leadership and the public. Pay no attention to what he wants
       and pay attention to the forces on him. We've seen him whirling like a
       dervish for days.

       Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
       Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
       Date: Fri, 4 Nov 2011 18:43:56 -0500 (CDT)
       To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
       ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
       Subject: Re: G3/B3* - GREECE - Papa speech: rejects snap elections,
       doesn't resign and still defends referendum
       If Peter meant that Papa still thinks the referendum was the best idea
       I agree with him. If he means papa is still thinking of doing it in
       the future I'm with Kristen.
       Sent from my iPhone
       On Nov 4, 2011, at 17:58, Kristen Cooper &lt;kristen.cooper@stratfor.com&gt;
       wrote:

         I don't think that is what he said. He spent most the time
         explaining why he called it in the first place but not still having
         it.

         Kristen Cooper
         512.619.9414
         On Nov 4, 2011, at 18:53, Peter Zeihan &lt;zeihan@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

           I mean papa is still saying that's his plan

           On Nov 4, 2011, at 5:41 PM, Kristen Cooper
           &lt;kristen.cooper@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

             I really don't think the referendum is still on. He gave that up
             awhile ago. There is NO way he would win a confidence vote if
             people thought he was still going to call a referendum
             On Nov 4, 2011, at 6:23 PM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

               Still on the referendum
               Awesome
               On Nov 4, 2011, at 5:10 PM, Marc Lanthemann
               &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

                 nothing exciting or historic

                 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8846201/Debt-crisis-live.html

                 21.58 Papandreou closes his speech, rejecting talk of snap
                 elections:

                 We need to be level-headed. We are managing a crisis. We
                 need to strengthen democratic institutions or we will wound
                 democracy. We must be organised and Greece must be governed
                 without interuption. We require level-headedness, not
                 frenzy. Political parties which are going to be
                 collaborating cannot be a government on a status quo that is
                 dying.

                 What i want is to operate for today and tomorrow but not for
                 yesterday. Let's go for the citizens of Greece, for a
                 country that can be proud and dignified. I want to remind
                 foreign leaders that they should have belief in the Greek
                 people. This country is made of hard stuff and the country
                 does what it is meant to do.

                 I ask for a vote of confidence so our country has a
                 government to take necessary steps of security over the next
                 few months. The country supercedes all of us. United, we can
                 go forward.

                 21.43 More humble talk from Mr Papandreou:
                 I did not see politics as profession. I can contribute to
                 general good. When I am under criticism i want to send a
                 clear message, I hope my actions can bring about a different
                 culture in political life of the country and media and
                 citizens.

                 21.41 He opens the door for a coalition government to be
                 formed.

                 21.40 Mr Papandreou insists he is not "clinging to power".
                 He says he is not interested in that. The floor claps.

                 21.37 More from Mr Papandreou:

                 I broke a taboo with the referendum [...] Going against the
                 norm was for the benefit of Greece. We do have differences,
                 but we also see priorities of countries and these can best
                 be served with collaborations.
                 A transitional government would mean catastrophe. This
                 should not happen. Snap elections would mean the bail-out
                 would be up in the air.

                 21.35 He says early elections would be a "catastrophe".

                 21.29 Mr Papandreou continues:
                 It is in the interest of the Greek nation, this bailout. I
                 am curious how all oppositions oppose this. What did they
                 fear? Rejection by greek people of bailout?
                 [The referendum] was a democratic decision which shook the
                 markets.
                 But we the Greek nation exists which finally must decide.
                 Many on the right and on the left said we were bothering our
                 partners, and therefore there was hypocracy abound.
                 [So] yes financial markets exist, but first of all people
                 exist.

                 21.17 Mr Papandreou asks Parliament for greater
                 collaboration and cooperation. He says:
                 The bailout allows us to write-off a large part of our debt
                 in the next few months [it] permits us to give the energy to
                 build a Greece of growth.

                 Greek people, There is no problem with your deposits in the
                 banks because of the bailout. They are even more guaranteed
                 with us in the eurozone.

                 [...] This bailout is tremendous opportunity to rebuild
                 country on new foundations.

                 Papandreou steps up to address the Greek parliament on
                 Fridsy (Photo: AP)

                 21.12 There are shades of the British Commons as George
                 Papandreou finally takes the mic. He blames the previous
                 government for multiplying the debt and the a**tragic
                 mistakesa** that have been made. He adds:
                 We are living through a new trial, and some of us wish to
                 forget what has happened in the past.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-05 01:03:38</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1026833_re-g3-b3-greece-papa-speech-rejects-snap-elections-doesn-t.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1029168</id>
    <title>wikileaks tasking
</title>
    <description>   I'd like every AOR to look at the leaks from their area.  Look for two
   things.  First, is there anything significantly embarrassing to anyone. 
   Second, is there any place where Stratfor is shown to be compeltely off
   base?
   --

   George Friedman

   Founder and CEO

   Stratfor

   700 Lavaca Street

   Suite 900

   Austin, Texas 78701

   Phone  512-744-4319

   Fax  512-744-4334
</description>
    <date>2010-11-28 20:19:44</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 03:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1029168_wikileaks-tasking-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1029237</id>
    <title>wikileaks mirrored
</title>
    <description>   In case the wikileaks.org site goes down again, I've mirrored it here:

    

   https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/

    

    

    

   Kevin Stech

   Research Director | STRATFOR

   kevin.stech@stratfor.com

   +1 (512) 744-4086

    
</description>
    <date>2010-11-28 23:07:51</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 03:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1029237_wikileaks-mirrored-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1030004</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged "Anonymous" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise "anonymous"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-10 19:47:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1030004_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1031554</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] Anonymous 101: Introduction to the Lulz
</title>
    <description>   So far extremely underwhelming, as expected. 

   10 points to whoever came up with this phrase "ultra-coordinated
   motherfuckery" 

   Unfortunately it is applied to people who are completely uncoordinated and
   couldn't fuck anything.  You can be sure I will find a better use for this
   phrase in the future.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marc Lanthemann" &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "CT AOR" &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, November 8, 2011 2:48:49 PM
   Subject: [CT] Anonymous 101: Introduction to the Lulz

   pretty good cultural overview of anon but useless in terms of figuring out
   "tactical" details.

   On 11/8/11 1:30 PM, Melissa Taylor wrote:

 Haven't read it, but looks very interesting.  This is Part I.

 Recommend reading at link for pics.


 Anonymous 101: Introduction to the Lulz

 http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2011/11/anonymous-101/all/1

 November 8, 2011  |
 5:30 am

 (Any decent coverage of Anonymous is going to verge on some NSFW material at points. There will be questionable language and strange imagery.)

 Last week the net and the media were ablaze with the news that Anonymous might be taking on the Zeta drug cartel in Mexico, a story that has morphed into wider drug corruption story, and led to one American law enforcement official in North Carolina being named as a gang conspirator.

 Also this year, anons released documents on, or d0xed, several police organization and one prominent police vendor in retaliation for heavy-handed law enforcement reactions to occupations associated with the Occupy Wall Street movement. Theya**ve fought with child pornographers, hacked Sony repeatedly, and even tried to releasing compromising pictures to blackmail Bay Area Rapid Transit spokesman Linton Johnson into resigning. (Johnson claimed to have authored and then defended BARTa**s controversial decision to shut off mobile phone service in BART stations to pre-empt an anti-police brutality protest.)

 Theya**ve created law enforcement excitement thata**s verged on panic, given net and media pundits hyperbolic logorrhea about a**cyber terrorisma** and a**cyber freedoma**, and happily skipped between damn funny, deeply disturbing, and self-aggrandizing, depending on the mood of the hive mind at the moment.

 But what is Anonymous?

 In this in-depth series a**Anonymous: Beyond the Mask,a** wea**re going to do our best to answer that.

 NYU Professor and Anonymous researcher Biella Coleman compares Anonymous to the trickster god archetype.

 a**The trickster does exist across America, across Europe, really across the world and it is not in myth but in embodied in group and living practice: in that of the prankster, hacker, the phreaker, the troller (all of whom, have their own unique elements of course, but so does each trickster),a** she wrote in Social Text.

 The trickster isna**t the good guy or the bad guy, ita**s the character that exposes contradictions, initiates change and moves the plot forward. One minute, the loving and heroic trickster is saving civilization. A few minutes later the same trickster is cruel, kicking your ass and eating babies as a snack.

 The conversation about Anonymous points to this trickster nature, veering between praise and fear, with the media at a loss for even how to describe them.

 Wea**ve tried hacker group, notorious hacker group, hacktivists, the Internet Hate Machine, pimply-faced, basement-dwelling teenagers, an activist organization, a movement, a collective, a vigilante group, online terrorists, and any number of other fantastical and colorful terms. None of them have ever really fit. Anonymous has constantly forced us to reach for the thesaurus a** revealing that as a whole, we in the media have no idea what Anonymous really is or what it means.

 It wasna**t until I downloaded and listened to Lulz: A corruption of LOLa**s second album, Corruption, that I grasped what Anonymous really is.

 Ita**s a culture.

 It takes cultures to have albums, idioms, and iconography, and I was swimming in these and more. Anonymous is a nascent and small culture, but one with its own aesthetics and values, art and literature, social norms and ways of production, and even its own dialectic language.

 It is no wonder we in the media and the wider culture are often confused. Any study of Anonymous must be anthropological, taking into account the way people exist in different societies. The media has just been looking for an organization with a leader who could explain why Anonymous seems to do weird things. Not only that, but Anonymous seems to be built around doing weird things, and even has a term for it: the lulz.

 The lulz (a corruption of LOL, online shorthand for laugh out loud) is the most important and abstract thing to understand about Anonymous, and perhaps the internet itself. The lulz is laughing instead of screaming. Ita**s a laughter of embarrassment and separation. Ita**s schadenfreude. Ita**s not the anesthetic humor that makes days go by easier, ita**s humor that heightens contradictions. The lulz is laughter with pain in it. It forces you to consider injustice and hypocrisy, whichever side of it you are on in that moment.

 In the culture of Anonymous, the lulz is the reason for doing. Anonymous wasna**t made for easy times; the trickster sleeps when all is well.
 Inevitablity

 Cultures dona**t emerge from vacuums, and Anonymous is no exception. The birthplace of Anonymous is a website called 4chan founded in 2003, that developed an a**anything goesa** random section known as the /b/ board. 4chan itself comes from Japanese language predecessor called 2chan, founded in 2001. Before that, the lulz and hacker pranking was alive and well in old-school IRC chat rooms, EFnet, and the 1990s hacker scene.

 But if youa**re going back that far, add as influences Mondo 2000, and publications like RE/Search, and a billion shitty zines that were dead by 1996. But those all came from something, too.

 Hacker culture, and almost all of computer culture back in the day is shot through with the Discordian edge of 1960/1970s counter-culture and Robert Anton Wilson and Robert Sheaa**s Illuminatus. So from there ita**s the yippies, Andy Kaufmann, and the Situationists we need to first comprehend, or do we head back to early 20th century absurdists of Dada? Or maybe we venture all the way to that olde booke of epic trolling lulze, Tristram Shandy?

 Wea**re all the way to 1759 now.

 Perhaps this means the 1960s Discordians are right, and therea**s a Ha Ha Only Serious giggle that is cosmic in nature. That there is a part of reality, a force of physics, that is actually a Fundamental Sense of Humor. But the gravity we deal with can only be explained to an even larger amount of Dark Humor, woven into the fabric of the universe.

 The point is Anonymous, despite the false shock of contemporary news reporting, isna**t sui generis. Ita**s not a surprise, and it didna**t spring fully formed from the forehead of Ceiling Cat.

 In this place and time, with the exhaustion of political discourse, the overwhelming pressures of modern life, and rise of the internet, the stochastic network organism of Anonymous was inevitable.

 I will confess up front that I love Anonymous, but not because I think theya**re the heroes.

 Like Alan Moorea**s character V who inspired Anonymous to adopt the Guy Fawkes mask as an icon and fashion item, youa**re never quite sure if Anonymous is the hero or antihero. The trickster is attracted to change and the need for change, and thata**s where Anonymous goes. But they are not your personal army a** thata**s Rule 44 a** yes, there are rules. And when they do something it never goes quite as planned. The internet has no neat endings.

 The trickster as myth proved so compelling that the network made it real. Anonymous, the neta**s trickster, emerged like supernatural movie monster out of the misty realm of ideas and into the real world.

 a**Ultra-coordinated motherfuckerya**

 But to be historical, leta**s start with 4chan.org, a wildly popular board for sharing images and talking about them, and in particular, 4chana**s /b/ board (Really, really, NSFW). /b/ is a web forum where posts have no author names and there are no archives and ita**s explicitly about anything at all. This technological format meeting with the internet in the early 21st Century gave birth to Anonymous, and it remains the mothera**s teat from which Anonymous sucks. (Rule 22)

 Once you pull your hands away from your face and start looking, /b/ is hard to look away from.

 /b/ is the id of the internet, the collective unconsciousa**s version of the place from which the base drives arise. There is no sophistication in the slurs, sexuality, and destruction in the savage landscape of /b/ a** it is the natural state of networked man.

 In this, it has a kind of innocence and purity. Terms like a**niggera** and a**faggota** are common, but not there because of racism and bigotry a** though racism and bigotry are easily found there. Their use is there to keep you out. These words are heads on pikes warning you that further in it gets much worse, and it does.

 Nearly any human appetite is acceptable, nearly any flaw exploited, and probably photographed with a time stamp. But /b/ reminds us that the id is the seat of creative energy. Much of it, hell even most of it, is harmless or even sweet. People reach out for help on /b/, and they find encouragement and advice. The id and /b/ are the foxholes of those who feel powerless and disenfranchised.

 Thata**s what youa**ll find in /b/, the unspoken. a**/b/tardsa**, as denizens of the board are called and call themselves, create incest porn, fantasize about beating women, look for dataviz examples or coding tips. They are grown men that really want to talk about a**My Little Pony: Friendship is Magic.a** Maybe ita**s ironic, maybe ita**s not. (Ia**m told by one such brony that the show is just a lot better than youa**d expect.)

 At some moment lost in its unrecorded history, /b/ and Anonymous reached an inflection point, and the id spilled into the rest of the net in the form of a**ultra-coordinated motherfuckery,a** as one anon described it Coleman. This was the ability to use the technological tools of social coordination so quickly and well that anons working together could collectively attack targets for any perceived slight, or just for fun, without those targets ever having a chance to see it coming or defend themselves.

 These came to be called a**raids.a**

 Over time raids took many forms, eventually moving into the regular world. They could look like protests, massively coordinated pranks, distributed denial of service attacks (DDOS) or straight-up hacking attacks. D0xing, ordering unpaid pizzas, signing people up for embarrassing junk mail were all common raids. Therea**s a raid that you know for sure. Ita**s likely youa**ve even participated, and even more likely youa**ve been a victim of it; the rickroll. The rickroll began as a tool of the /b/tard/Anonymous raid, before spreading so far into the culture that the Oregon legislature and even the US Speaker of the House were rickrolling the world.

 Anonymous spat out other memes like lolcats and pedobear that spread far enough for their origins to be lost to many, but with little profound effect on the rest of the world.

 Even then Anonymous had a vigilante streak, and it could be downright mean. Theya**d d0x someone who abused a cat. In particular they went after abusers of cats, because Anonymous loves cats and pictures of cats. They blocked the pool at the online kida**s game Habbo Hotel with black, generously froa**d avatars declaring a**Pool is closed due to AIDSa** as a protest to perceived racism on the part of Habboa**s admins.

 But Anonymous was never particularly focused. Raids could be devastating or funny, but either way they came and went quickly, the neta**s own little tornado system. Anonymous was never anyonea**s personal army, and never stayed on any one topic for very long.

 It took Tom Cruise to change all that and give Anonymous a political consciousness. Specifically, Tom Cruise as cringe-worthy Scientologist.

 Birth of the a**Moralfagsa**

 A video of a disturbingly manic Cruise leaked out of Scientology in January 2008, and the notably litigious church tried to force hosting services and Gawker to take it down with legal nastygrams.

 But the video contained some truly epic lulz, and Anonymous wouldna**t let it die. The churcha**s effort to kill it off so enraged Anons they decided to destroy the church itself. By enraged, I mean a pissy kind of laughing and spitting at once. For Anonymous being mad meant wanting to troll the church very hard, but it was never to get serious, because getting serious for Anons meant losing.

 To accomplish this op (short for operation), Anons created Project Chanology, which arguably marked both the birth of political consciousness for Anonymous, and the development of its methods of taking mass action.

 Destroying the church was going to be aggro funny, as well as require a lot of dancing. Many have wondered since then, were they serious about destroying the church, or was it all a joke?

 The answer is yes, and understanding that is vital to understanding Anonymous.

 Therea**s no proof that the people that started Project Chanology had any personal beefs against the Church of Scientology beyond their secondhand annoyance at the Churcha**s litigious history and attempted suppression of speech. But probably most importantly, the Church was rampantly guilty of feeding the trolls. (Rule 14)

 But Project Chanology was the perfect way for the people who did have a history with Scientology to jump under the wing of the haughty and lulzy collective. Scientology had pursued its detractors with mean spirited ruthlessness, delving into critica**s personal lives, following them with investigators and ruining their reputations.

 Anonymous didna**t care. Call them rapists, and theya**d laughingly tell you they were child rapists. Accuse them of any crime, and they could point to worse on /b/. Anonymity and the a**words will never hurt mea** ethic that arose out of the aesthetic of extremes on 4chan made them immune to the Churcha**s arsenal.

 But some existing Anons, and the ones that came in from the community of Scientology detractors, really cared about winning this one. They wanted to be the good guys and Scientology to play the bad guys. The Church, they reasoned, hurt people, took their money, and lied to them under the guise of being caretakers and teachers.

 Anonymous claimed to do all those bad things too, but didna**t really, and would never promise to take care of you and teach you, but sometimes did anyway.

 As Coleman put it in her study, they were the perfect nemeses. But Anons caring about doing the right thing is about morality, and morality, at least straight morality, is not the lulz. Many veterans saw this as a corruption of the purity of Anonymous a** the cancer that was killing /b/.

 On February 10, 2008, the a**moralfagsa** took the whole thing to a new level. They set up meeting times and places in cities around the world, bought masks and made signs.

 Anons left the internet by the thousands and showed up in front of church locations and Scientology centers around the world, many wearing their new Guy Fawkes masks, V for Vendetta movie merchandise sold by Warner Brothers, to obscure their identities.

 They played music and walked around with signs which both accused Scientology of crimes and referenced obscure internet memes. They met each other in meat space for the first time. They partied with their own in front of aghast Scientologists in more than 90 cities.

 For the first time, the internet had shown up on the real street, en masse.

 And yes, they brought Long Cat.

 Coming soon: Part Two: Three Years of Epic Trolling the Church of Scientology, the LOIC, and OpPayback

 This post is part of a special series from Quinn Norton, who is embedding with Occupy protestors and going beyond the headlines with Anonymous for Wired.com. For an introduction to the series, read Quinna**s description of the project.


 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967
   www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-08 23:55:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1031554_re-ct-anonymous-101-introduction-to-the-lulz-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1031816</id>
    <title>Re: Info - Wiki Founder
</title>
    <description>   Timeline of charges:
   http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2010/12/01/131722777/timeline-the-international-arrest-warrant-for-wikileaks-julian-assange?ft=1&amp;f=1004

   Bayless Parsley wrote:

     read this:

     http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/24/world/24assange.html?_r=1&amp;pagewanted=print

     On 12/1/10 2:15 PM, Lena Bell wrote:

       this is a good feature piece The Age newspaper did back in May... a
       lot of people were talking about it then because so little is known
       about the man. Some of the more personal, historical background is
       pasted below after URL. My personal opinion? I think he is very
       intelligent but disenchanted and as journo writes:

       In another life, Assange might have been a mathematician. He spent
       four years studying maths, mostly at Melbourne University - with
       stints at the Australian National University in Canberra - but never
       graduated, disenchanted, he says, with how many of his fellow students
       were conducting research for the US defence system. 'There are key
       cases which are just really f---ing obnoxious,'' he says.

       Assange isn't paid a salary by WikiLeaks. He has investments, which he
       won't discuss. But during the 1990s he worked in computer security in
       Australia and overseas, devised software programmes - in 1997 he
       co-invented ''Rubberhose deniable encryption'', which he describes as
       a cryptographic system made for human rights workers wanting to
       protect sensitive data in the field - and also became a key figure in
       the free software movement.

       http://www.theage.com.au/technology/technology-news/the-secret-life-of-wikileaks-founder-julian-assange-20100521-w1um.html

       The former teenage hacker from Melbourne, whose mystique as an
       internet subversive, a resourceful loner with no fixed address,
       travelling constantly between countries with laptop and backpack,
       constitutes what you might call Assange's romantic appeal.

       But then there's the flip side: a man who believes in extreme
       transparency, but evades and obfuscates when it comes to talking about
       himself in the rare interviews that he gives. In the past, at least,
       these have hardly ever been face to face.

       The secretiveness extends to those close to him. One woman who speaks
       to me on the condition of total anonymity lived in the same share
       house in Melbourne as Assange for a few months in early 2007, when
       WikiLeaks was in its incubation period. The house was the hub, and it
       was inhabited by computer geeks.

       There were beds everywhere, she says. There was even a bed in the
       kitchen. This woman slept on a mattress in Assange's room, and says
       she would sometimes wake up in the middle of the night to find him
       still glued to his computer. He frequently forget to eat or sleep,
       wrote mathematical formulas all over the walls and the doors, and used
       only red light bulbs in his room - on the basis that early man, if
       waking suddenly, would see only the gentle light of the campfire, and
       fall asleep again. He also went through a period of frustration that
       the human body has to be fed several times a day and experimented with
       eating just one meal every two days, in order to be more efficient.
       ''He was always extremely focused,'' she says.

       Assange first visited Sweden in the 1990s - and WikiLeaks is hosted on
       a main server in Sweden, where the identities of confidential sources
       are protected by law.

       This doesn't prove anything, of course - and WikiLeaks only moved its
       main server to Sweden two years ago, after the Julius Baer Bank tried
       to close down the website. Even so, I email Eva Gabrielsson, Larsson's
       widow, to ask if the two of them ever met Assange - explaining that he
       helped research a remarkable 1997 book, /Underground/, about the
       exploits of an extraordinary group of young Melbourne hackers, written
       by the Melbourne academic Suelette Dreyfus. The hackers all had
       monikers in the book: Assange is said to be the character Mendax.
       Assange convinced Dreyfus to release the book online, and according to
       one source I spoke to, there was great interest in the book in Sweden
       - and in China.

       ''About Julian Assange - well, why don't you ask him?'' Gabrielsson
       emails back.

       It isn't the most urgent question I have for Assange, who I meet in
       early May, the day after he slips back into Melbourne, his home town.
       He arrived on a flight from Europe, via the US. Or so I understand
       from the person acting as our inbetween.

       The same contact provides a Melbourne address, and instructions.
       ''Don't call a cab, find one on the street; turn off your mobile phone
       before you catch the cab and preferably, remove the batteries.''

       And here he is - a tall, thin, pale figure with that remarkable white
       hair, looking very tired, and wearing creased, student-style dark
       clothes and boots, and backpack.

       As we shake hands, he inclines his head slightly in a courtly, old
       world manner, at odds with his youthful, student-traveller looks. When
       I remark that there's a lot to ask him, he replies, ''That's all right
       - I'm not going to answer half of it.''

       Is Assange his real name? Yes, he replies, then says it's the name in
       his passport. ''What's in a name?'' he then adds mysteriously, casting
       doubt on his first answer.

       At the time of writing, his passport status was apparently back to
       normal after immigration officials at Melbourne Airport said that his
       passport was going to be cancelled on the grounds that it was too
       tatty.

       It has been in a couple of rivers, Assange allows of the state of his
       passport. The first time, as he recalls, in December 2006, when he was
       crossing a swollen river during heavy rain in southern Tasmania, and
       was swept out to sea. He swam back in. ''My conclusion from that
       experience is that the universe doesn't give a damn about you, so it's
       a good thing you do.''

       Why did he have his passport with him? He had everything he needed for
       three weeks of survival, he replies. He needed his passport for ID
       when he flew to Tasmania.

       Doesn't he have a driver's licence? ''No comment.''

       How true is the image of him as the enigmatic founder of WikiLeaks,
       constantly on the move, with no real place to call home? Is this
       really how he lives his life?

       ''Do I live my life as an enigmatic man?''

       No - is it true you're constantly on the move?

       ''Pretty much true.''

       Does he have one base he'd call home?

       ''I have four bases where I would go if I was sick, which is how I
       think about where home is.''

       He has spent the best part of the past six months in Iceland, he says.
       And the next six months? ''It depends on which area of the world I'm
       needed most. We're an international organisation. We deal with
       international problems,'' he replies.

       Assange mentions four bases, but names only two. The one in Iceland
       and another in Kenya, where he has spent a lot of time, on and off, in
       the past couple of years.

       The Kroll report, released on WikiLeaks, reportedly swung the Kenyan
       presidential election in 2007.

       When he's in the country, Assange lives in a compound in Nairobi with
       other foreigners, mainly members of NGOs such as Medecins Sans
       Frontieres. He originally went to Kenya in 2007 to give a lecture on
       WikiLeaks, when it was up and running. ''And ended up staying there,''
       I suggest encouragingly.

       ''Mmmm.''

       As a result of liking the place or ...

       ''Well, it has got extraordinary opportunities for reforms. It had a
       revolution in the 1970s. It has only been a democracy since 2004 ... I
       was introduced to senior people in journalism, in human rights very
       quickly.''

       He has travelled to Siberia. Is there a third base there?

       ''No comment. I wish. The bear steak is good.''

       Why did he go to Georgia?

       ''How do you know about that?''

       I read it somewhere, I reply. It was a rumour. ''Ah, a rumour,'' he
       says.

       But he did go there? ''It's better that I don't comment on that,
       because Georgia is not such a big place.''

       Living permanently in a state of exile, which can become addictive,
       means that you always have the sharp eye of the outsider, I suggest.

       ''The sense of perspective that interaction with multiple cultures
       gives you I find to be extremely valuable, because it allows you to
       see the structure of a country with greater clarity, and gives you a
       sense of mental independence,'' Assange replies.

       "You're not swept up in the trivialities of a nation. You can
       concentrate on the serious matters. Australia is a bit of a political
       wasteland. That's OK, as long as people recognise that. As long as
       people recognise that Australia is a suburb of a country called
       Anglo-Saxon.''

       Could he ever live in one place again? A brief silence. ''I don't
       think so,'' he says finally.

       ''I don't see myself as a computer guru,'' he remarks at one point.
       ''I live a broad intellectual life. I'm good at a lot of things,
       except for spelling.''

       At one point, thinking about some of the material leaked on WikiLeaks,
       I ask Assange how he defines national security. ''We don't,'' he says
       crisply. "We're not interested in that. We're interested in justice.
       We are a supranational organisation. So we're not interested in
       national security.''

       How does he justify keeping his own life as private as possible,
       considering that he believes in extreme transparency?

       ''I don't justify it,'' he says, with just a hint of mischievousness.
       ''No one has sent us any official documents that were not published
       previously on me. Should they do so, and they meet our editorial
       criteria, we will publish them.''

       Assange isn't paid a salary by WikiLeaks. He has investments, which he
       won't discuss. But during the 1990s he worked in computer security in
       Australia and overseas, devised software programmes - in 1997 he
       co-invented ''Rubberhose deniable encryption'', which he describes as
       a cryptographic system made for human rights workers wanting to
       protect sensitive data in the field - and also became a key figure in
       the free software movement.

       The whole point of free software, he comments, is to ''liberate it in
       all senses''. He adds: ''It' s part of the intellectual heritage of
       man. True intellectual heritage can't be bound up in intellectual
       property.''

       Did being arrested, and later on finding himself in a courtroom, push
       him into a completely different reality that he had never thought
       about - and eventually in a direction that eventually saw him start
       thinking along the lines of a website like WikiLeaks, that would take
       on the world?

       ''That [experience] showed me how the justice system and bureaucracy
       worked, and did not work; what its abilities were and what its
       limitations were,'' he replies. ''And justice wasn't something that
       came out of the justice system. Justice was something that you bring
       to the justice system. And if you're lucky, or skilled, and you're in
       a country that isn't too corrupt, you can do that.''

       In another life, Assange might have been a mathematician. He spent
       four years studying maths, mostly at Melbourne University - with
       stints at the Australian National University in Canberra - but never
       graduated, disenchanted, he says, with how many of his fellow students
       were conducting research for the US defence system.

       ''There are key cases which are just really f---ing obnoxious,'' he
       says.

       According to Assange, the US Defence Advance Research Project Agency
       was funding research which involved optimising the efficiency of a
       military bulldozer called the Grizzly Plough, which was used in the
       Iraqi desert during Operation Desert Storm during the 1991 Gulf War.

       ''It has a problem in that it gets damaged [from] the sand rolling up
       in front. The application of this bulldozer is to move at 60
       kilometres an hour, sweeping barbed wire and so on before it, and get
       the sand and put it in the trenches where the [Iraqi] troops are, and
       bury them all alive and then roll over the top. So that's what
       Melbourne University's applied maths department was doing - studying
       how to improve the efficiency of the Grizzly Plough.''

       Assange says he did a lot of soul-searching before he finally quit his
       studies in 2007. He had already started working with other people on a
       model of WikiLeaks by early 2006.

       There were people at the physics conference, he goes on, who were
       career physicists, ''and there was just something about their attire,
       and the way they moved their bodies, and of course the bags on their
       backs didn't help much either. I couldn't respect them as men''.

       His university experience didn't define his cynicism, though. Assange
       says that he's extremely cynical anyway. ''I painted every corner,
       floor, wall and ceiling in the 'room' I was in, black, until there was
       only one corner left. I mean intellectually,'' he adds. ''To me, it
       was the forced move [in chess], when you have to do something or
       you'll lose the game.''

       So WikiLeaks was his forced move?

       ''That's the way it feels to me, yes. There were no other options left
       to me on the table.''

       WikiLeaks, he says, has released more classified documents than the
       rest of the world press combined.

       ''That's not something I say as a way of saying how successful we are
       - rather, that shows you the parlous state of the rest of the media.
       How is it that a team of five people has managed to release to the
       public more suppressed information, at that level, than the rest of
       the world press combined? It's disgraceful.''

       Where does Assange see WikiLeaks in 10 years? "It's not what I want
       the world to be. It's what I want the rest of the world to be," he
       replies.

       He would like to see all media develop their own forms of WikiLeaks.
       That would put his own website out of business, I point out.

       ''We have a proposal to [an American foundation] for a grant to just
       that,'' he replies, explaining that WikiLeaks could create systems for
       all media organisations.

       A thought: has he ever met Rupert Murdoch? ''No.''

       Fred Burton wrote:

         Lena - What is this dude's Aussie background?  He seems like a
         lunatic
         or a left-winger?  Angry Aussie w/an axe to grind.  Belongs in
         Swedish
         politics.
         FBI is in bed w/the Aussies.  I'm sure we are listening in to every
         call
         the jamoke is making.
         Lena Bell wrote:
          

           Not sure that's happening re Oz; federal police have opened up an
           investigation to see whether or not any Australian criminal laws
           were
           broken. - where did Nick get the insight about an agreed
           extradition -
           there is nothing about this on OS and of course it would mean
           Assange
           would have to come home first. Something he is very unlikely to
           do.
           GovGen hasn't ruled out canceling his passport incidentally.
           His mother has recently been interviewed by the ABC and she is
           scared
           that he will be "hunted down and jailed"...  will make it
           difficult to
           pursue the scenario painted below. Australians are likely to back
           him.
           You wouldn't believe how much press/public sentiment david hicks
           created in Guantanamo Bay. It really forced the Howard govt to
           change
           tactics... esp when polling results overall were so poor.**

           Bayless Parsley wrote:
              

             The main thing I was trying to ask about earlier was in regards
             to
             the logistics of actually detaining the guy.

             I got the sense that Fred was saying US agents could physically
             do it
             in another country. Perhaps I just misunderstood what he was
             trying
             to say, because I find that really hard to believe (as rendition
             is
             not an option in this case, which is why I brought up the fact
             that
             some Republican congressmen are trying to call Assange a
             "terrorist"
             now).

             Basic fact is that any move to arrest the guy (assuming they get
             an
             indictment for him) would require that a friendly government do
             it
             and then extradite him. Nick Miller told me the Australians have
             already offered to do this, as Assange is an Australian citizen,
             and
             Australia is the Canada of the southern hemisphere when it comes
             to
             its relations with the US.

             Also, Karen had a very good point about the sex charges. Weren't
             those dropped months ago after the initial allegations? What do
             ya
             know, after the US explictly warned him time and again to stop
             publishing the cables, it pops back up all of a sudden...

             On 12/1/10 12:36 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:
                  

               can you charge them with anything if they paid for the
               information?

               On Dec 1, 2010, at 12:35 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                      

                 You mean by helping Manning get the information off the
                 networks? Training, computer codes, flash drives, etc?? 
                 That's a good point. On 12/1/10 12:31 PM, George Friedman
                 wrote:
                          

                   He might have facilitated or suborned the access. For
                   example,
                   provided the means for distirbuting it.

                   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

                   ------------------------------------------------------------------------

                   *From: *Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
                   *Date: *Wed, 1 Dec 2010 12:19:09 -0600 (CST)
                   *To: *Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
                   *ReplyTo: *Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
                   *Subject: *Re: Info - Wiki Founder

                   I think it's very difficult to indict him on anything
                   though. MAYBE espionage, but even those laws are still too
                   old.  I think
                   your FBI contact is right (sadly).  the US can really only
                   get the
                   person who did the leak, not who published it--George also
                   pointed
                   this out over the weekend. What would the sealed
                   indictment be for?

                   (this is also why they will get him on some other charges
                   in
                   another country....)

                   On 12/1/10 12:15 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
                              

                     Sealed indictment.  Hand the warrant over to the USMS to
                     execute.
                     Happens everyday.  The USMS works w/their counterparts
                     and lock
                     the dude
                     up.
                     Bayless Parsley wrote:
                                           

                       How would it work if the US wanted to catch such a
                       high profile
                       target
                       like this? Despite what one Republican senator may
                       have said the
                       other
                       day (can't remember who, or if it was even a senator),
                       he's not a
                       "terrorist," and so rendition..... wouldn't really be
                       an option.

                       But legally, you'd have to have the host government's
                       cooperation. Is
                       there any way aside from that scenario that could lead
                       to his
                       arrest
                       on charges of breaking US laws?

                       On 12/1/10 12:12 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
                                                 

                         &gt;From a very good contact @ the FBI --

                         How come you guys haven't picked this left-wing
                         lunatic
                         WikiLeaks founder up on
                         some sort of trumped up charge? 
                         ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

                         1st Amendment overprotects journalists.
                                                            

                   -- 
                   Sean Noonan
                   Tactical Analyst
                   Office: +1 512-279-9479
                   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
                   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
                   www.stratfor.com
                              

                 -- 
                 Sean Noonan
                 Tactical Analyst
                 Office: +1 512-279-9479
                 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
                 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
                 www.stratfor.com
                          
</description>
    <date>2010-12-01 21:21:30</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1031816_re-info-wiki-founder-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>melissa.taylor@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1031933</id>
    <title>Re: has the wikileaks site stopped working for anyone else?
</title>
    <description>   Just checked, up to 505 now.  Research is backing them up as we speak.

   Marko Papic wrote:

     Let's make sure we check like every hour to see if anything has been
     further downloaded.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Kevin Stech" &lt;kevin.stech@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Cc: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Wednesday, December 1, 2010 2:03:59 PM
     Subject: RE: has the wikileaks site stopped working for anyone else?

     I've got 291 cables backed up at
     https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/

      

      

     From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Marko Papic
     Sent: Wednesday, December 01, 2010 14:00
     To: Analyst List
     Cc: Reva Bhalla
     Subject: Re: has the wikileaks site stopped working for anyone else?

      

     This is why it is crucial that we download all the files whenever they
     are available.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Anya Alfano" &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Cc: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Wednesday, December 1, 2010 1:55:23 PM
     Subject: Re: has the wikileaks site stopped working for anyone else?

     Possible explanation --

     http://www.aolnews.com/surge-desk/article/did-amazon-just-pull-the-plug-on-the-wikileaks-website/19740475

            Did Amazon Just Pull the Plug on the WikiLeaks Website?

     Updated: 6 minutes ago

     Print Text Size

     Print this page|EmailShare on FacebookShare on TwitterShare on DiggShare
     on Lifestream

     David             Knowles

     David Knowles Writer

     AOL News Surge Desk

     (Dec. 1) -- Who turned out the lights?

     Today, key portions of the WikiLeaks website went down, prompting
     speculation that Amazon.com, the host for the WikiLeaks site, may have
     bowed to pressure to sever service to the whistle-blower group, The
     Associated Press reported.

     While the main page at WikiLeaks.org has been sporadically available for
     some of the day, attempts to open a link that leads to the latest trove
     of classified U.S. government documents result in an error message.

     Amazon.com has so far offered no confirmation of its possible role in
     the partial shutdown of the WikiLeaks site. But a statement released by
     Sen. Joe Lieberman confirms that Amazon has officially given WikiLeaks
     the boot:

     This morning Amazon informed my staff that it has ceased to host the
     Wikileaks website. I wish that Amazon had taken this action earlier
     based on Wikileaks' previous publication of classified material. The
     company's decision to cut off Wikileaks now is the right decision and
     should set the standard for other companies Wikileaks is using to
     distribute its illegally seized material. I call on any other company or
     organization that is hosting Wikileaks to immediately terminate its
     relationship with them. Wikileaks' illegal, outrageous, and reckless
     acts have compromised our national security and put lives at risk around
     the world. No responsible company - whether American or foreign - should
     assist Wikileaks in its efforts to disseminate these stolen materials. I
     will be asking Amazon about the extent of its relationship with
     Wikileaks and what it and other web service providers will do in the
     future to ensure that their services are not used to distribute stolen,
     classified information.

     Since releasing more than 250,000 State Department cables on a variety
     of sensitive topics, WikiLeaks.org has undergone attacks by hackers that
     have limited availability to the documents the group also released to
     The New York Times, The Guardian, Der Spiegel and Al-Jazeera.

     According to The Washington Post, at least one of the hackers
     responsible for the attack on WikiLeaks is believed to be a "patriotic"
     American angered by the group's ongoing campaign to publish state
     secrets.

     With Julian Assange now being hunted by Interpol, and WikiLeaks' losing
     its American web host, it might be tempting to think that the group will
     soon be out of business. But given the fact that Assange has made it
     known that he possesses a vast amount of potentially damaging
     information yet to leak, some possibly about the Bank of America,
     there's no indication that the world has heard the last of WikiLeaks.

     On 12/1/10 1:12 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     im getting nada

     --
     Marko Papic

     STRATFOR Analyst
     C: + 1-512-905-3091
     marko.papic@stratfor.com

     --
     Marko Papic

     STRATFOR Analyst
     C: + 1-512-905-3091
     marko.papic@stratfor.com

 --
 Matthew Powers
 STRATFOR Researcher
 Matthew.Powers@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-01 21:14:51</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 03:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1031933_re-has-the-wikileaks-site-stopped-working-for-anyone-else-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>matthew.powers@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/98/98172_image001.jpg</path><size>8736</size><md5></md5><sha1>3e0947ea0b39f71819196054b9a6021b1120c035</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1031974</id>
    <title>Re: Info - Wiki Founder
</title>
    <description>   I would think that's the second to last place he would want to go.

   GCHQ/london police/MI5 could easily find him, and I don't see why Cameron
   and friends wouldn't be 100% agreeable to extradition.

   But you're right, this is also the last report I saw. This could actually
   mean the US has decided NOT to go after him.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Bayless Parsley &lt;bayless.parsley@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Wed, 01 Dec 2010 14:14:30 -0600
   To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Info - Wiki Founder
   no, last he was heard from was in Britain.... and he sounded SUPER
   paranoid

   this was before shit hit the fan like it has now hit following the pub of
   the diplo cables

   WikiLeaks Founder on the Run, Trailed by Notoriety

   By JOHN F. BURNS and RAVI SOMAIYA

   10/23/10

   http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/24/world/24assange.html?_r=1&amp;pagewanted=print

   LONDON - Julian Assange moves like a hunted man. In a noisy Ethiopian
   restaurant in London's rundown Paddington district, he pitches his voice
   barely above a whisper to foil the Western intelligence agencies he fears.

   He demands that his dwindling number of loyalists use expensive encrypted
   cellphones and swaps his own the way other men change shirts. He checks
   into hotels under false names, dyes his hair, sleeps on sofas and floors,
   and uses cash instead of credit cards, often borrowed from friends.

   "By being determined to be on this path, and not to compromise, I've wound
   up in an extraordinary situation," Mr. Assange said over lunch last
   Sunday, when he arrived sporting a woolen beanie and a wispy stubble and
   trailing a youthful entourage that included a filmmaker assigned to
   document any unpleasant surprises.

   In his remarkable journey to notoriety, Mr. Assange, founder of the
   WikiLeaks whistle-blowers' Web site, sees the next few weeks as his most
   hazardous. Now he is making his most brazen disclosure yet: 391,832 secret
   documents on the Iraqi war. He held a news conference in London on
   Saturday, saying that the release "constituted the most comprehensive and
   detailed account of any war ever to have entered the public record."

   Twelve weeks ago, he posted on his organization's Web site some 77,000
   classified Pentagon documents on the Afghan conflict.

   Much has changed since 2006, when Mr. Assange, a 39-year-old Australian,
   used years of computer hacking and what friends call a near genius I.Q. to
   establish WikiLeaks, redefining whistle-blowing by gathering secrets in
   bulk, storing them beyond the reach of governments and others determined
   to retrieve them, then releasing them instantly, and globally.

   Now it is not just governments that denounce him: some of his own comrades
   are abandoning him for what they see as erratic and imperious behavior,
   and a nearly delusional grandeur unmatched by an awareness that the
   digital secrets he reveals can have a price in flesh and blood.

   Several WikiLeaks colleagues say he alone decided to release the Afghan
   documents without removing the names of Afghan intelligence sources for
   NATO troops. "We were very, very upset with that, and with the way he
   spoke about it afterwards," said Birgitta Jonsdottir, a core WikiLeaks
   volunteer and a member of Iceland's Parliament. "If he could just focus on
   the important things he does, it would be better."

   He is also being investigated in connection with accusations of rape and
   molestation involving two Swedish women. Mr. Assange has denied the
   allegations, saying the relations were consensual. But prosecutors in
   Sweden have yet to formally approve charges or dismiss the case eight
   weeks after the complaints against Mr. Assange were filed, damaging his
   quest for a secure base for himself and WikiLeaks. Though he characterizes
   the claims as "a smear campaign," the scandal has compounded the pressures
   of his cloaked life.

   "When it comes to the point where you occasionally look forward to being
   in prison on the basis that you might be able to spend a day reading a
   book, the realization dawns that perhaps the situation has become a little
   more stressful than you would like," he said over the London lunch.

   Exposing Secrets

   Mr. Assange has come a long way from an unsettled childhood in Australia
   as a self-acknowledged social misfit who narrowly avoided prison after
   being convicted on 25 charges of computer hacking in 1995. History is
   punctuated by spies, defectors and others who revealed the most
   inflammatory secrets of their age. Mr. Assange has become that figure for
   the Internet era, with as yet unreckoned consequences for himself and for
   the keepers of the world's secrets.

   "I've been waiting 40 years for someone to disclose information on a scale
   that might really make a difference," said Daniel Ellsberg, who exposed a
   1,000-page secret study of the Vietnam War in 1971 that became known as
   the Pentagon Papers.

   Mr. Ellsberg said he saw kindred spirits in Mr. Assange and Pfc. Bradley
   Manning, the 22-year-old former Army intelligence operative under
   detention in Quantico, Va., suspected of leaking the Iraq and Afghan
   documents.

   "They were willing to go to prison for life, or be executed, to put out
   this information," Mr. Ellsberg said.

   Underlying Mr. Assange's anxieties is deep uncertainty about what the
   United States and its allies may do next. Pentagon and Justice department
   officials have said they are weighing his actions under the 1917 Espionage
   Act. They have demanded that Mr. Assange "return" all government documents
   in his possession, undertake not to publish any new ones and not "solicit"
   further American materials.

   Mr. Assange has responded by going on the run, but has found no refuge.
   Amid the Afghan documents controversy, he flew to Sweden, seeking a
   residence permit and protection under that country's broad press freedoms.
   His initial welcome was euphoric.

   "They called me the James Bond of journalism," he recalled wryly. "It got
   me a lot of fans, and some of them ended up causing me a bit of trouble."

   Within days, his liaisons with two Swedish women led to an arrest warrant
   on charges of rape and molestation. Karin Rosander, a spokesperson for the
   prosecutor, said last week that the police were continuing to investigate.

   In late September, he left Stockholm for Berlin. A bag he checked on the
   almost empty flight disappeared, with three encrypted laptops. It has not
   resurfaced; Mr. Assange suspects it was intercepted. From Germany, he
   traveled to London, wary at being detained on arrival. Under British law,
   his Australian passport entitles him to remain for six months. Iceland,
   another country with generous press freedoms and a strong WikiLeaks
   following, has also lost its appeal, with Mr. Assange concluding that its
   government, like Britain's, is too easily influenced by Washington. In his
   native Australia, ministers have signaled their willingness to cooperate
   with the United States if it opens a prosecution. Mr. Assange said a
   senior Australian official told him, "You play outside the rules, and you
   will be dealt with outside the rules."

   He faces attack from within, too.

   After the Sweden scandal, strains within WikiLeaks reached a breaking
   point, with some of Mr. Assange's closest collaborators publicly
   defecting. The New York Times spoke with dozens of people who have worked
   with and supported him in Iceland, Sweden, Germany, Britain and the United
   States. What emerged was a picture of the founder of WikiLeaks as its
   prime innovator and charismatic force but as someone whose growing
   celebrity has been matched by an increasingly dictatorial, eccentric and
   capricious style.

   Internal Turmoil

   Effectively, as Mr. Assange pursues his fugitive's life, his leadership is
   enforced over the Internet. Even remotely, his style is imperious. In an
   online exchange with one volunteer, a transcript of which was obtained by
   The Times, he warned that WikiLeaks would disintegrate without him. "We've
   been in a Unity or Death situation for a few months now," he said.

   When Herbert Snorrason, a 25-year-old political activist in Iceland,
   questioned Mr. Assange's judgment over a number of issues in an online
   exchange last month, Mr. Assange was uncompromising. "I don't like your
   tone," he said, according to a transcript. "If it continues, you're out."

   Mr. Assange cast himself as indispensable. "I am the heart and soul of
   this organization, its founder, philosopher, spokesperson, original coder,
   organizer, financier, and all the rest," he said. "If you have a problem
   with me," he told Mr. Snorrason, using an expletive, he should quit.

   In an interview about the exchange, Mr. Snorrason's conclusion was stark.
   "He is not in his right mind," he said. In London, Mr. Assange was
   dismissive of all those who have criticized him. "These are not
   consequential people," he said.

   "About a dozen" disillusioned volunteers have left recently, said Smari
   McCarthy, an Icelandic volunteer who has distanced himself in the recent
   turmoil. In late summer, Mr. Assange suspended Daniel Domscheit-Berg, a
   German who had been the WikiLeaks spokesman under the pseudonym Daniel
   Schmitt, accusing him of unspecified "bad behavior." Many more activists,
   Mr. McCarthy said, are likely to follow.

   Mr. Assange denied that any important volunteers had quit, apart from Mr.
   Domscheit-Berg. But further defections could paralyze an organization that
   Mr. Assange says has 40 core volunteers and about 800 mostly unpaid
   followers to maintain a diffuse web of computer servers and to secure the
   system against attack - to guard against the kind of infiltration that
   WikiLeaks itself has used to generate its revelations.

   Mr. Assange's detractors also accuse him of pursuing a vendetta against
   the United States. In London, Mr. Assange said America was an increasingly
   militarized society and a threat to democracy. Moreover, he said, "we have
   been attacked by the United States, so we are forced into a position where
   we must defend ourselves."

   Even among those challenging Mr. Assange's leadership style, there is
   recognition that the intricate computer and financial architecture
   WikiLeaks uses to shield it against its enemies has depended on its
   founder. "He's very unique and extremely capable," said Ms. Jonsdottir,
   the Icelandic lawmaker.

   A Rash of Scoops

   Before posting the documents on Afghanistan and Iraq, WikiLeaks enjoyed a
   string of coups.

   Supporters were thrilled when the organization posted documents on the
   Guantanamo Bay detention operation, the contents of Sarah Palin's personal
   Yahoo email account, reports of extrajudicial killings in Kenya and East
   Timor, the membership rolls of the neo-Nazi British National Party and a
   combat video showing American Apache helicopters in Baghdad in 2007
   gunning down at least 12 people, including two Reuters journalists.

   But now, WikiLeaks has been met with new doubts. Amnesty International and
   Reporters Without Borders have joined the Pentagon in criticizing the
   organization for risking people's lives by publishing war logs identifying
   Afghans working for the Americans or acting as informers.

   A Taliban spokesman in Afghanistan using the pseudonym Zabiullah Mujahid
   said in a telephone interview that the Taliban had formed a nine-member
   "commission" after the Afghan documents were posted "to find about people
   who are spying." He said the Taliban had a "wanted" list of 1,800 Afghans
   and was comparing that with names WikiLeaks provided.

   "After the process is completed, our Taliban court will decide about such
   people," he said.

   Mr. Assange defended posting unredacted documents, saying he balanced his
   decision "with the knowledge of the tremendous good and prevention of harm
   that is caused" by putting the information into the public domain. "There
   are no easy choices on the table for this organization," he said.

   But if Mr. Assange is sustained by his sense of mission, faith is fading
   among his fellow conspirators. His mood was caught vividly in an exchange
   on Sept. 20 with another senior WikiLeaks figure. In an encrypted online
   chat, a transcript of which was passed to The Times, Mr. Assange was
   dismissive of his colleagues. He described them as "a confederacy of
   fools," and asked his interlocutor, "Am I dealing with a complete retard?"

   In London, Mr. Assange was angered when asked about the rifts. He
   responded testily to questions about WikiLeaks's opaque finances, Private
   Manning's fate and WikiLeaks's apparent lack of accountability to anybody
   but himself, calling the questions "cretinous," "facile" and reminiscent
   of "kindergarten."

   Mr. Assange has been equivocal about Private Manning, talking in late
   summer as though the soldier was unavoidable collateral damage, much like
   the Afghans named as informers in the secret Pentagon documents.

   But in London, he took a more sympathetic view, describing Private Manning
   as a "political prisoner" facing a jail term of up to 52 years, without
   confirming that he was the source of the disclosed war logs. "We have a
   duty to assist Mr. Manning and other people who are facing legal and other
   consequences," he said.

   Mr. Assange's own fate seems as imperiled as Private Manning's. Last
   Monday, the Swedish Migration Board said Mr. Assange's bid for a residence
   permit had been rejected. His British visa will expire early next year.
   When he left the London restaurant at twilight, heading into the shadows,
   he declined to say where he was going. The man who has put some of the
   world's most powerful institutions on his watch list was, once more, on
   the move.

   Eric Schmitt contributed reporting from Washington, and Dexter Filkins
   from Kabul, Afghanistan.

   On 12/1/10 1:29 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

 Is he even still in sweden?

 -----Original Message-----
 From: Lena Bell &lt;lena.bell@stratfor.com&gt;
 Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
 Date: Wed, 01 Dec 2010 13:10:26
 To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
 Reply-To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
 Subject: Re: Info - Wiki Founder


 Not sure that's happening re Oz; federal police have opened up an
 investigation to see whether or not any Australian criminal laws were
 broken. - where did Nick get the insight about an agreed extradition -
 there is nothing about this on OS and of course it would mean Assange
 would have to come home first. Something he is very unlikely to do.
 GovGen hasn't ruled out canceling his passport incidentally.
 His mother has recently been interviewed by the ABC and she is scared
 that he will be "hunted down and jailed"...  will make it difficult to
 pursue the scenario painted below. Australians are likely to back him.
 You wouldn't believe how much press/public sentiment david hicks created
 in Guantanamo Bay. It really forced the Howard govt to change tactics...
 esp when polling results overall were so poor.**

 Bayless Parsley wrote:

 The main thing I was trying to ask about earlier was in regards to the
 logistics of actually detaining the guy.

 I got the sense that Fred was saying US agents could physically do it
 in another country. Perhaps I just misunderstood what he was trying to
 say, because I find that really hard to believe (as rendition is not
 an option in this case, which is why I brought up the fact that some
 Republican congressmen are trying to call Assange a "terrorist" now).

 Basic fact is that any move to arrest the guy (assuming they get an
 indictment for him) would require that a friendly government do it and
 then extradite him. Nick Miller told me the Australians have already
 offered to do this, as Assange is an Australian citizen, and Australia
 is the Canada of the southern hemisphere when it comes to its
 relations with the US.

 Also, Karen had a very good point about the sex charges. Weren't those
 dropped months ago after the initial allegations? What do ya know,
 after the US explictly warned him time and again to stop publishing
 the cables, it pops back up all of a sudden...



 On 12/1/10 12:36 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

 can you charge them with anything if they paid for the information?


 On Dec 1, 2010, at 12:35 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:


 You mean by helping Manning get the information off the networks?
 Training, computer codes, flash drives, etc??
 That's a good point.

 On 12/1/10 12:31 PM, George Friedman wrote:

 He might have facilitated or suborned the access. For example,
 provided the means for distirbuting it.

 Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

 ------------------------------------------------------------------------
 *From: *Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
 *Date: *Wed, 1 Dec 2010 12:19:09 -0600 (CST)
 *To: *Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
 *ReplyTo: *Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
 *Subject: *Re: Info - Wiki Founder

 I think it's very difficult to indict him on anything though.
 MAYBE espionage, but even those laws are still too old.  I think
 your FBI contact is right (sadly).  the US can really only get the
 person who did the leak, not who published it--George also pointed
 this out over the weekend.

 What would the sealed indictment be for?

 (this is also why they will get him on some other charges in
 another country....)

 On 12/1/10 12:15 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 Sealed indictment.  Hand the warrant over to the USMS to execute.
 Happens everyday.  The USMS works w/their counterparts and lock the dude
 up.

 Bayless Parsley wrote:


 How would it work if the US wanted to catch such a high profile target
 like this? Despite what one Republican senator may have said the other
 day (can't remember who, or if it was even a senator), he's not a
 "terrorist," and so rendition..... wouldn't really be an option.

 But legally, you'd have to have the host government's cooperation. Is
 there any way aside from that scenario that could lead to his arrest
 on charges of breaking US laws?


 On 12/1/10 12:12 PM, Fred Burton wrote:


 &gt;From a very good contact @ the FBI --


 How come you guys haven't picked this left-wing lunatic WikiLeaks founder up on
 some sort of trumped up charge?

 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

 1st Amendment overprotects journalists.




 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Office: +1 512-279-9479
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Office: +1 512-279-9479
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-01 21:17:05</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1031974_re-info-wiki-founder-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1032380</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-11 13:59:34</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1032380_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1032787</id>
    <title>[OS] G3* - IRAN/UN/MIL - Iran IAEA report leaked
</title>
    <description>           I'm thinking we'll see a bucket load of items out of Iran, the US
           and Europe today regarding the coming IAEA report and all the
           politicing around it. Might as well have them all in one place for
           ease of reading [chris]

   Obviously waaaaay too much info here to rep. The key element of this item
   is the leaking of the info before the release of the report in order to
   prime/set the agenda by focusing on particular aspects and findings of the
   report. this leak is obviously a part of the concerted PR operation on
   behalf of the Israelis, US and possibly some Europeans and KSA. The items
   of the report are secondary in importance to the agenda that is being
   played out here to increase pressure on Iran, probably in the attempt to
   increase sanctions and push it to the top of the global consciousness thus
   giving the US increased leverage to bargain the best possible pull out of
   Iraq/Afghanistan [chris]

   there was a strange report of an anonymous speaker at a forum last friday,
   this may be related to that [johnblasing]

   IAEA says foreign expertise has brought Iran to threshold of nuclear
   capability

   http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iaea-says-foreign-expertise-has-brought-iran-to-threshold-of-nuclear-capability/2011/11/05/gIQAc6hjtM_print.html

   By Joby Warrick, Monday, November 7, 4:41 AM

   Intelligence provided to U.N. nuclear officials shows that Iran's
   government has mastered the critical steps needed to build a nuclear
   weapon, receiving assistance from foreign scientists to overcome key
   technical hurdles, according to Western diplomats and nuclear experts
   briefed on the findings.

   Documents and other records provide new details on the role played by a
   former Soviet weapons scientist who allegedly tutored Iranians over
   several years on building high-precision detonators of the kind used to
   trigger a nuclear chain reaction, the officials and experts said. Crucial
   technology linked to experts in Pakistan and North Korea also helped
   propel Iran to the threshold of nuclear capability, they added.

   The officials, citing secret intelligence provided over several years to
   the International Atomic Energy Agency, said the records reinforce
   concerns that Iran continued to conduct weapons-related research after
   2003 - when, U.S. intelligence agencies believe, Iranian leaders halted
   such experiments in response to international and domestic pressures.

   The U.N. nuclear watchdog is due to release a report this week laying out
   its findings on Iran's efforts to obtain sensitive nuclear technology.
   Fears that Iran could quickly build an atomic bomb if it chooses to has
   fueled anti-Iran rhetoric and new threats of military strikes. Some U.S.
   arms-control groups have cautioned against what they fear could be an
   overreaction to the report, saying there is still time to persuade Iran to
   change its behavior.

   Iranian officials expressed indifference about the report.

   "Let them publish and see what happens," said Iran's foreign minister and
   former nuclear top official, Ali Akbar Salehi, the semiofficial Mehr News
   Agency reported Saturday.

   Salehi said that the controversy over Iran's nuclear program is "100
   percent political" and that the IAEA is "under pressure from foreign
   powers."

   `Never really stopped'

   Although the IAEA has chided Iran for years to come clean about a number
   of apparently weapons-related scientific projects, the new disclosures
   fill out the contours of an apparent secret research program that was more
   ambitious, more organized and more successful than commonly suspected.
   Beginning early in the last decade and apparently resuming - though at a
   more measured pace - after a pause in 2003, Iranian scientists worked
   concurrently across multiple disciplines to obtain key skills needed to
   make and test a nuclear weapon that could fit inside the country's
   long-range missiles, said David Albright, a former IAEA official who has
   reviewed the intelligence files.
   "The program never really stopped," said Albright, president of the
   Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security. The
   institute performs widely respected independent analyses of nuclear
   programs in countries around the world, often drawing from IAEA data.

   "After 2003, money was made available for research in areas that sure look
   like nuclear weapons work but were hidden within civilian institutions,"
   Albright said.

   U.S. intelligence officials maintain that Iran's leaders have not decided
   whether to build nuclear weapons but are intent on gathering all the
   components and skills so they can quickly assemble a bomb if they choose
   to. Iran has consistently maintained that its nuclear activities are
   peaceful and intended only to generate electricity.

   The IAEA has declined to comment on the intelligence it has received from
   member states, including the United States, pending the release of its
   report.

   But some of the highlights were described in a presentation by Albright at
   a private conference of intelligence professionals last week. PowerPoint
   slides from the presentation were obtained by The Washington Post, and
   details of Albright's summary were confirmed by two European diplomats
   privy to the IAEA's internal reports. The two officials spoke on the
   condition of anonymity, in keeping with diplomatic protocol.

   Albright said IAEA officials, based on the totality of the evidence given
   to them, have concluded that Iran "has sufficient information to design
   and produce a workable implosion nuclear device" using highly enriched
   uranium as its fissile core. In the presentation, he described
   intelligence that points to a formalized and rigorous process for gaining
   all the necessary skills for weapons-building, using native talent as well
   as a generous helping of foreign expertise.

   "The [intelligence] points to a comprehensive project structure and
   hierarchy with clear responsibilities, timelines and deliverables,"
   Albright said, according to the notes from the presentation.

   Key outside assistance

   According to Albright, one key breakthrough that has not been publicly
   described was Iran's success in obtaining design information for a device
   known as an R265 generator. The device is a hemispherical aluminum shell
   with an intricate array of high explosives that detonate with split-second
   precision. These charges compress a small sphere of enriched uranium or
   plutonium to trigger a nuclear chain reaction.

   Creating such a device is a formidable technical challenge, and Iran
   needed outside assistance in designing the generator and testing its
   performance, Albright said.

   According to the intelligence provided to the IAEA, key assistance in both
   areas was provided by Vyacheslav Danilenko, a former Soviet nuclear
   scientist who was contracted in the mid-1990s by Iran's Physics Research
   Center, a facility linked to the country's nuclear program. Documents
   provided to the U.N. officials showed that Danilenko offered assistance to
   the Iranians over at least five years, giving lectures and sharing
   research papers on developing and testing an explosives package that the
   Iranians apparently incorporated into their warhead design, according to
   two officials with access to the IAEA's confidential files.

   Danilenko's role was judged to be so critical that IAEA investigators
   devoted considerable effort to obtaining his cooperation, the two
   officials said. The scientist acknowledged his role but said he thought
   his work was limited to assisting civilian engineering projects, the
   sources said.

   There is no evidence that Russian government officials knew of Danilenko's
   activities in Iran. E-mails requesting comment from Russian officials in
   Washington and Moscow were not returned. Efforts to reach Danilenko
   through his former company were not successful.

   Iran relied on foreign experts to supply mathematical formulas and codes
   for theoretical design work - some of which appear to have originated in
   North Korea, diplomats and weapons experts say. Additional help appears to
   have come from the father of Pakistan's nuclear program, Abdul Qadeer
   Khan, whose design for a device known as a neutron initiator was found in
   Iran, the sources said. Khan is known to have provided nuclear blueprints
   to Libya that included a neutron initiator, a device that shoots a stream
   of atomic particles into a nuclear weapon's fissile core at the start of
   the nuclear chain reaction.

   One Iranian document provided to the IAEA portrayed Iranian scientists as
   discussing plans to conduct a four-year study of neutron initiators
   beginning in 2007, four years after Iran was said to have halted such
   research.

   "It is unknown if it commenced or progressed as planned," Albright said.
   The disclosures come against a backdrop of new threats of military strikes
   on Iran. Israeli newspapers reported last week that there is high-level
   government support in Israel for a military attack on Iran's nuclear
   installations.

   "One of the problems with such open threats of military action is that it
   furthers the drift towards a military conflict and makes it more difficult
   to dial down tensions," said Peter Crail, a nonproliferation analyst with
   the Arms Control Association, a Washington advocacy group. "It also risks
   creating an assumption that we can always end Iran's nuclear program with
   a few airstrikes if nothing else works. That's simply not the case."

   Special correspondent Thomas Erdbrink in Tehran contributed to this
   report.

     (Corr) Cleric asks IAEA head to avoid "lies"against Iran, save dignity
     of Agency

     At 0522 gmt, IRTV1 started airing the Id al-Adha prayer sermons in
     Tehran by Ayatollah Seyyed Ahmad Khatami live. Ayatollah Khatami listed
     10 types of plots that America and Israel have resorted to against Iran
     during the past 32 year.

     He said: "During the past 32 years, we have witnessed different types of
     plots of the global arrogance against us, especially of the US and its
     illegitimate child, the Zionist regime. I have written down 10 types of
     these [plots] - seven of which refer to the domestic field and three
     others the foreign field."

     He described "ethnic wars" as the first type of plots. Then he spoke
     about "assassinations" and said: "Over 12,000 people have been
     assassinated by the US and its agents in this country" He added that
     Iran possesses 100 "undeniable documents" that prove America's
     involvement in the assassinations inside the country and outside of it,
     in other countries.

     He referred to the "eight-year imposed war" (Iraq-Iran war) as the third
     type of plot and termed "influences up to the level of the president" as
     the fourth type of plots (reference to the 2009 presidential candidate
     Mirhoseyn Musavi).

     Describing "coups" as the fifth type of plot, he said that six coups
     were initiated by the US in Iran, all of which, he said were "foiled"
     with the help of God.

     He called the "soft warfare and"1388 sedition" (2009 post-poll protests)
     are the sixth and seventh types of America's and Israel's plots against
     Iran.

     Regarding the foreign types of plots, Khatami said: "Eight: Intrusion
     into Afghanistan aimed at creating a base against the Islamic Iran.
     Nine: Intrusion into Iraq to establish control over Iran. 10: New Middle
     East, which was aimed at curbing the wave of the huge Islamic
     Revolution."

     He added that all these plots were "foiled" with the help of God.

     Source: Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1, Tehran, in
     Persian 0525gmt 07 Nov 11

     BBC Mon Alert ME1 MEPol sh

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

     Top cleric lists 10 types of US, Israel "plots" against Iran

     At 0522 gmt, IRTV1 started airing the Id al-Adha prayer sermons in
     Tehran by Ayatollah Seyyed Ahmad Khatami live. Ayatollah Khatami listed
     10 types of plots that America and Israel have resorted to against Iran
     during the past 32 year.

     He said: "During the past 32 years, we have witnessed different types of
     plots of the global arrogance against us, especially of the US and its
     illegitimate child, the Zionist regime. I have written down 10 types of
     these [plots] - seven of which refer to the domestic field and three
     others the foreign field."

     He described "ethnic wars" as the first type of plots. Then he spoke
     about "assassinations" and said: "Over 12,000 people have been
     assassinated by the US and its agents in this country" He added that
     Iran possesses 100 "undeniable documents" that prove America's
     involvement in the assassinations inside the country and outside of it,
     in other countries.

     He referred to the "eight-year imposed war" (Iraq-Iran war) as the third
     type of plot and termed "influences up to the level of the president" as
     the fourth type of plots (reference to the 2009 presidential candidate
     Mirhoseyn Musavi).

     Describing "coups" as the fifth type of plot, he said that six coups
     were initiated by the US in Iran, all of which, he said were "foiled"
     with the help of God.

     He called the "soft warfare and"1388 sedition" (2009 post-poll protests)
     are the sixth and seventh types of America's and Israel's plots against
     Iran.

     Regarding the foreign types of plots, Khatami said: "Eight: Intrusion
     into Afghanistan aimed at creating a base against the Islamic Iran.
     Nine: Intrusion into Iraq to establish control over Iran. 10: New Middle
     East, which was aimed at curbing the wave of the huge Islamic
     Revolution."

     He added that all these plots were "foiled" with the help of God.

     Source: Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1, Tehran, in
     Persian 0522gmt 07 Nov 11

     BBC Mon Alert ME1 MEPol sh

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

       More anti-Western remarks attributed to Khatami [chris]

       Top clear asks IAEA chief to avoid "lies" against Iran, save dignity
       of Agency

       During the Id al-Adha sermons at Tehran University being aired live by
       IRTV1, Ayatollah Seyyed Ahmad Khatami referred to the upcoming IAEA
       report on Iran nuclear programme and addressed the Secretary-General
       of the Agency [Yukiya Amano], saying: "Do not insult the dignity of
       the International Atomic Energy Agency with your conduct."

       He added that if he [Amano] is used as a "week tool of the US" and
       acts against the "independent nation" of Iran and "publishes lies" in
       the form of a document then "whatever dignity is left of the Agency,
       will be wiped off."

       Thanking God for his blessings, he further said that all "plots"
       against Iran have always been "nullified".

       He added: "I explicitly tell America that the period of superpower has
       ended [for you]. America is being considered like an empty drum in the
       world, today. Neither are you the America of the past, nor the Islamic
       Iran is Iran of the past of during the Shah's time."

       He added that Iran today is a strong country that can confront any
       plot in a manner that will be a "lesson" for others.

       Source: Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1, Tehran, in
       Persian 0525gmt 07 Nov 11

       BBC Mon Alert ME1 MEPol sh

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

    Iran foreign minister terms Bushehr plant "symbol" of Iran-Russia ties   
                                                                             
    Text of report by Iranian official government news agency IRNA website   
                                                                             
    Tehran, 6 November, IRNA: Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said here on 
    Sunday [6 November] that Bushehr nuclear power plant is a symbol of      
    Iran-Russia cooperation.                                                 
                                                                             
    He made the remark in a meeting with new Russian Ambassador to Iran Leon 
    Jagarian, who submitted a copy of his credentials to Salehi.             
                                                                             
    "Bushehr power plant as a symbol of Iran-Russia cooperation proves that  
    the two countries can exchange views and cooperate at regional and       
    international levels.                                                    
                                                                             
    Pointing to the Iran-Russia excellent relations, Salehi said             
    unfortunately the volume of trade exchange between the two countries is  
    not enough while they have high potentials in this regard.               
                                                                             
    Expressing Iran's readiness to increase the current volume of economic   
    exchange by 10bn dollars, he said the two countries can expand their     
    cooperation in such fields as politics, economy, trade, culture, oil and 
    gas and power plant construction.                                        
                                                                             
    Jagarian described the recent meeting between the Iranian and Russian    
    presidents in Astana, Kazakhstan as a new phase in the two countries'    
    relations.                                                               
                                                                             
    He also expressed his country's readiness to cooperate with Iran at      
    regional and international levels.                                       
                                                                             
    Source: Islamic Republic News Agency website, Tehran, in English 1613gmt 
    06 Nov 11                                                                
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEPol sh                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

         Not on IRNA english yet - CR

    Attacking Iran would make US, Israel "pay heavy price" - official        
                                                                             
    Excerpt from report by Iranian news channel Press TV website             
                                                                             
    A member of Iran's Assembly of Expert says that the United States and    
    Israel will have to pay a heavy price for any military attack on Iran's  
    nuclear facilities.                                                      
                                                                             
    Seyyed Mahmud Alavi told IRNA on Sunday [6 November] that Washington and 
    Tel Aviv are aware of the fact that putting their anti-Iran threats into 
    practice would cost them dearly, and thus they would not become involved 
    in such folly.                                                           
                                                                             
    He stated that the US and Israel know that such empty threats cannot     
    intimidate Iran and also know that they would receive a crushing         
    response if they ever attack the Islamic Republic.                       
                                                                             
    [Passage omitted: background information]                                
                                                                             
    Source: Press TV website, Tehran, in English 1419gmt 06 Nov 11           
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEPol sh                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

           Transcript Ehud Barak interview
           Page last updated at 11:09 GMT, Sunday, 6 November 2011
           PLEASE NOTE "THE ANDREW MARR SHOW" MUST BE CREDITED IF ANY PART OF
           THIS TRANSCRIPT IS USED
           http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/andrew_marr_show/9632770.stm
           JEREMY VINE:

           Now by any standards Ehud Barak has had an astonishing career
           serving his country. Israel's Prime Minister during the Camp David
           negotiations with Yasser Arafat now serves as both Deputy Prime
           Minister and Defence Minister in the current government. Before
           entering politics, he was one of the country's most decorated
           soldiers carrying out the kind of military ops that are now the
           stuff of legend among many Israelis. So a man of peace or a man of
           war? When I met him in London recently, I began by asking why his
           government has authorised the building of more settlements despite
           international criticism.

           EHUD BARAK:

           We are building in Jerusalem. It's our capital. We are building in
           the Jewish neighbourhoods of Jerusalem. It's a city of 700,000
           people. You have to build and we will not accept anyone has the
           right to intervene in this. And we ...

           JEREMY VINE:

           (over) Well that is seen as speeding up, isn't it? That's seen as
           acceleration.

           EHUD BARAK:

           (over) No, it's not. No speeding up ... It's about numbers and
           pace, numbers per unit time. When Olmert was Prime Minister five
           years ago, we were building our defence minister twice the rate we
           are building now. When I was Prime Minister ten years ago, we were
           building four times the rate we are building right now. So it's
           not about the pace.

           JEREMY VINE:

           But why not ... Again it's about the symbolism. Why not just stop
           for a while because the other side see this as getting in the way,
           don't they?

           EHUD BARAK:

           No, no, the other side plays with it as a kind of manipulation to
           put certain preconditions into the dialogue. The reason that
           Olmert's government and my government could do it is because
           somehow we managed to convince the rest of the world that we are
           genuine in our talks and now we are facing more sophisticated
           Palestinian group which feels the zeitgeist behind them. They feel
           that they have good will from many international bodies, so they
           try to play with this issue of settlement. It really shouldn't
           matter because ...

           JEREMY VINE:

           Well you said something very, very interesting there - the phrases
           you've used - where you say you're dealing with a sophisticated
           Palestinian leadership now and they're very zeitgeisty and I
           couldn't have put it better myself in these questions. They're
           getting world opinion behind them, aren't they?

           EHUD BARAK:

           Yuh, yuh. We have to work properly to allow our people, our kind
           of spokesmen to talk more often to others, but it won't solve the
           issue. It cannot ...

           JEREMY VINE:

           (over) Are you frustrated at that?

           EHUD BARAK:

           I am a little bit frustrated by the fact that we cannot convince
           even some of our friends.

           JEREMY VINE:

           Okay, just to be clear. You accept that it strengthens Hamas if
           you go on building these settlements or not?

           EHUD BARAK:

           I don't think it relates to Hamas. Hamas basically is challenging
           Abu Mazen and the Palestinian authority. They are turning to
           terror. We cannot negotiate with them. Hamas are shooting at us
           rockets. You know just last week we got dozens of rockets in our
           southern part of the country. One man, father of four, was killed.
           That's something that cannot go together with peacemaking.

           JEREMY VINE:

           Let me change the subject.

           EHUD BARAK:

           (over) So it will be a challenge for Abu Mazen to take control
           over his own political system.

           JEREMY VINE:
           Alright, alright, I want to just move on because we haven't got
           much time. I want to talk to you about Iran as well. And I gather
           if we had the Israeli newspapers here and we opened them up, we
           would see that everyone in Israel is now thinking that you're
           getting ready to attack Iran. Is that right? Is that what people
           are saying?

           EHUD BARAK:

           Believe me, don't ... I do not try to underestimate the nature of
           the Iranian threat. That's a major threat for the stability of the
           whole region, probably of the whole world. A nuclear Iran - and
           they are determined to reach nuclear military capability - can
           open a major arms race, nuclear arms race in the whole Middle
           East. It can change the effectiveness of their supporting and
           their co-sponsoring of terror all around the region. They can ...

           JEREMY VINE:

           (over) Which is why the Israeli papers are saying aha, you're
           about to strike on them.

           EHUD BARAK:

           No, but I am telling it for years now. And they will intimidate
           neighbours in a much more effective way, especially when America
           and others are moving out of the region. I hope that the IAEA
           Report next week will tell the whole world a little bit more
           explicitly what they are really doing in regard to their nuclear
           plan.

           JEREMY VINE:

           (over) This is the narrative that's coming together. It's the
           missile test. It's the long range bombing plan. It's the IAEA
           Report which you mentioned. So they may say that Iran is getting
           closer to a bomb.

           EHUD BARAK:

           We strongly believe that sanctions are effective or could be
           effective if they are little and paralysing enough, that diplomacy
           could work if enough unity could be synchronised between the major
           players, but that no option should be removed from the table.

           JEREMY VINE:

           You have an amazing military record, and for those who don't know
           it, 19... - correct me if I'm wrong here - 1972 led the mission to
           free hostages on a Sabena flight; 1973, I read somewhere you
           dressed as a woman to assassinate - you're nodding - members of
           the PLO.

           EHUD BARAK:

           (over) Not as a hobby, yuh.

           JEREMY VINE:

           Okay. A scene in the film Munich reflected that. You were involved
           in Operation Entebbe in 1976; helped dismantle the Palestinian
           terror cell known as Black September. I'm thinking you're not
           really into diplomacy here. You would like to attack Iran.

           EHUD BARAK:

           No, I was also Foreign Affairs Minister of Israel and Prime
           Minister. In the last 15 years I didn't shot a single shot at
           anyone and I played a lot round the diplomatic saloons and the TV
           interviews as well. You know it's too serious. Israel is there. A
           person cannot choose his parents and a nation cannot choose its
           neighbours. We are living in a tough neighbourhood. No mercy for
           the weak, no second opportunity for those who cannot defend
           themselves. We would love to have the Canadians as our neighbours,
           but unfortunately the Americans got them. It's a tough
           neighbourhood and we have to be strong.

           JEREMY VINE:

           (over) One more because if you suddenly attack Iran next week, I
           want to make sure we've asked every question here. Have you got
           British support for that - for flying over them and dropping a
           bomb on their nuclear reactors?

           EHUD BARAK:

           I'm not going even to respond to this. May I say we are not ...
           don't worry about your next week programme, but the Iranian
           challenge is serious. This is something that should be prevented
           from happening. We have to stay there. We are strong. Israel is
           the strongest country a thousand miles around Jerusalem. We plan
           to remain the strongest country around. But we are at the same
           time peaceful. We are ready to make peace at any moment with any
           one of our neighbours.

           JEREMY VINE:

           So pretty cautious. Ehud Barak there, Israel's Defence Minister.
           No options ruled out on Iran.

           INTERVIEW ENDS

 --
 Clint Richards
 Global Monitor
 clint.richards@stratfor.com
 cell: 81 080 4477 5316
 office: 512 744 4300 ex:40841

           Iran Calligrapher's Association of North America, according to
           Google. Possibly not the entity being referred to below, though
           [chris]

           No idea what ICANA is... - CR

    Nuclear talks possible only if IAEA submits "honest" report - Iran       
    official                                                                 
                                                                             
    Text of report by Iranian news channel Press TV website                  
                                                                             
    An Iranian lawmaker says Iran has nothing to hide regarding its nuclear  
    programme and Tehran will only participate in negotiations if the UN     
    atomic agency is "honest" in its reports.                                
                                                                             
    Deputy Chairman of Iran's Majlis (parliament) National Security and      
    Foreign Policy Committee Esma'il Kowsari said that if the International  
    Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) resorts to deception then Iran "will set     
    conditions for talks."                                                   
                                                                             
    He went on to say that so long as the IAEA submits to the will of        
    arrogant powers particularly Washington, the agency's reports will       
    always be compiled to portray Iran in a negative light.                  
                                                                             
    "While the US has between 7,000 to 10,000 nuclear warheads and no other  
    country has atrocities such as Nagasaki and Hiroshima on its record, the 
    agency makes no effort to act against it (the US) and does not even dare 
    write a report against it," ICANA quoted him as saying on Sunday.        
                                                                             
    The IAEA director-general Yukiya Amano is scheduled to submit his new    
    report on Iran's nuclear case to IAEA member states on 8 November 2011.  
                                                                             
    However, Amano's visit to Washington for talks with US officials ahead   
    of the publication of the report has cast grave suspicion over its       
    objectivity and sincerity.                                               
                                                                             
    Iran has always rejected US allegations that it is pursuing a military   
    nuclear program and asserted the right to develop and acquire nuclear    
    technology for peaceful purposes as a signatory to the Non-Proliferation 
    Treaty [NPT].                                                            
                                                                             
    Source: Press TV website, Tehran, in English 1925gmt 06 Nov 11           
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEPol sh                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

           On 11/6/11 9:43 PM, Chris Farnham wrote:

             al-Ahkbar isn't in english - CR

               Iran's Ahmadinejad defiant as U.S. raises heat-paper
               http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/irans-ahmadinejad-defiant-as-us-raises-heat-paper/
               06 Nov 2011 23:19

               CAIRO, Nov 7 (Reuters) - The United States fears Iran's
               growing military power because it is now able to compete with
               Israel and the West, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
               said in comments carried by an Egyptian newspaper on Monday.

               Responding to a toughening stance from the United States and
               Israel against Tehran, Ahmadinejad accused Washington of
               inventing conspiracies to discredit Iran and sowing discord
               with its near neighbour Saudi Arabia.

               "Yes, we have military capabilities that are different from
               any other country in the region," Egyptian daily al-Akhbar
               cited Ahmadinejad as saying. "Iran is increasing in capability
               and advancement and therefore we are able to compete with
               Israel and the West and especially the United States."

               "The U.S. fears Iran's capability," he told the paper. "Iran
               will not permit (anyone from making) a move against it."
               Iran's Islamic rulers, who say Israel has no right to exist,
               deny accusations that they are seeking nuclear weapons and
               have warned they will respond to any attacks by striking at
               Israel and U.S. interests in the Gulf.

               A senior U.S. military official said on Friday Iran had become
               the biggest threat to the United States and Israel's president
               said the military option to stop the Islamic republic from
               obtaining nuclear weapons was nearer.

               Ahmadinejad repeated that Iran does not own a nuclear bomb,
               but said Israel's end was inevitable.
               The U.N. nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, is expected this week to
               issue its most detailed report yet on research in Iran seen as
               geared to developing atomic bombs.

               "It is Israel that has about 300 nuclear warheads. Iran is
               only keen to have nuclear capability for peaceful means," he
               said, accusing Washington of lumping Iran with Syria, the
               Islamist Hamas movement that rules Gaza and Hezbollah in
               Lebanon.

               The U.S. portrays those four as "the Axis of Evil to save the
               Zionist entity (Israel). But the Zionists are bound to go out
               of existence," he said.

               Responding to a U.S. claim that Iran was involved in a plot to
               kill the Saudi ambassador to Washington, Ahmadinejad said:
               "Iran is farthest from thinking of carrying out such crimes
               but the U.S. is always inventing conspiracies against Iran".

               "The U.S. fears any friendship between us and Saudi Arabia and
               therefore incites disagreements," he said. "To stop the U.S.
               in its tracks we must deepen the elements of friendship... We
               are ready for this and the relation between Saudi and Iran
               already exists and has not been cut off." (Reporting by Marwa
               Awad; Writing by Tom Pfeiffer; Editing by Matthew Jones)

 --
 Clint Richards
 Global Monitor
 clint.richards@stratfor.com
 cell: 81 080 4477 5316
 office: 512 744 4300 ex:40841

 --
 Clint Richards
 Global Monitor
 clint.richards@stratfor.com
 cell: 81 080 4477 5316
 office: 512 744 4300 ex:40841

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-07 09:02:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1032787_-os-g3-iran-un-mil-iran-iaea-report-leaked-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:os@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1033040</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT - CHINA/AUSTRALIA - Gillard Visit - CN65
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE:  CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3/4
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

   Some high level impressions for you. 
   Gillard has caved in on human rights. Her comments on human rights in
   China were prefaced with "this is an issue which we'll disagree..." which
   is code for "you can ignore this because we know you will".
   The Labor govt have taken a tough line on foreign investment lately and
   recent cyber attacks will have fortified that view in Canberra. In
   addition BHP will be telling them they have excess capital and don't need
   Chinese investment funds as they can't invest what they have. 
   The talk of closer defence ties with China is puzzling at face value but
   probably doesn't mean much. We already have military exchanges and the CDF
   does an annual visit to meet his Chinese counterpart. The statement didn't
   offer anything new. 
   Korea was just for the anniversary of the Battle of Kapyong and because
   Gillard had to have an excuse to be absent from Australia on Anzac Day. No
   business was done there with the ROK govt. 
   Japan is a different kettle of fish. In spite of WW2 Japan has long been a
   major trade partner. Gillard's statements there should be taken at face
   value. She will also have been trying to figure out Japan's real economic
   state. 
   Economically the real joker in the pack was the place she didn't visit -
   India. China will be aware the Aust govt has allowed 100% Indian ownership
   of two major resource projects in the Galilee whereas Chinese resource
   investment has been subject to strict conditions since Sept 2009 and a
   number of takeovers of similar or smaller size have been vetoed. 
   The Gillard visit to China should be examined not in the context of what
   they got, but what China didn't get.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 richmond@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4324
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19
</description>
    <date>2011-04-28 15:52:19</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1033040_-alpha-insight-china-australia-gillard-visit-cn65-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ben.preisler@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1033296</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat
</title>
    <description>   Main problem is that Der Spiegel is just that good, they've at least
   touched on most of what I would want to say about it.  The main thing here
   is how the politics of a terror threat/alert coincide with the reality of
   the threat itself. 

   We saw that Germany was fairly relaxed bout the earlier threat in Europe
   released by the US.  I'm not sure if that was the same as the info that
   the FBI passed over about this shia group, Saif (I don't know anything
   about them).  But something changed, as we noted last week in their
   interpretation.  That seems to go down to this virtual walk-in.  The one
   thing I was left confused about is whether BKA had ever been in contact
   with this source before.  It sounds like he cold called them.  It's common
   knowledge that walk-ins, rather than recruits, are nearly always the best
   sources.  But at the same time, they are very suspicious as double
   agents.  If this was a US source they would be freaking the fuck out after
   having Al-Balawi turn on them.  The germans seem to have cooler heads, but
   they will be working 24/7 to verify the source (let me make another plug
   for John Lecarre's A Most Wanted Man here, most of his career was in
   Germany). 

   They've clearly got enough corroborating information that they consider
   this a real threat.  But politically they are faced with the universal
   'damned if you do, damned if you don't' alert problem.  If the Interior
   ministry doesn't say something, they will be liable if an attack occurs. 
   Look at the constant press over information on the warning intelligence
   for Mumbai.  As we've said before, simply issuing the warning may help to
   deter the attackers. 

   The real important bit here, is that it seems the germans have fairly good
   intelligence.  While this attack is still not happening tomorrow, they
   have a lot of details about what might be in the works, rather than a
   single-source intercept that indicates some vague threat.  It seems
   they've increased security pretty well at the Bundestag, and want to add
   to the presence at any possible target.  This is where we seem them
   scrambling, and where their intelligence holes are. 

   The task now for the germans is to verify this source.  Maybe even pick
   him up and put him on ice somewhere (Fred/Stick?), not in GErmany but in
   Pakistan/Afghanistan.  That will require some cooperation with either/both
   the Americans and Pakistanis.  They also need to verify all the bio
   information they have on these 4-6 guys trying to get into germany and
   watch travelers very carefully.  The germans seem to be very good at
   surveilling these threats within Germany, so their best luck may come when
   one of the guys overseas contacts a local already under surveillance. 

   At minimum, this could be a pretty interesting tearline this week.  Both
   the walk-in issues and the CIA/FBI liaison conflicts that I havne't gotten
   into here. 
   On 11/22/10 10:34 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

     Any thoughts on where you guys are thinking of going with this?

     Der Spiegel article is indeed interesting.

     On 11/22/10 9:28 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       Great report from Der Spiegel (thanks Mikey).  I suggest anyone
       interested to read the whole thing.  They ask the right questions, and
       while not as much detail as I hoped, give us a much better
       understanding on the threat in Germany. 

       The BKA (germany's FBI) must be extremely busy verifying the details
       of this virtual walk-in.  It obviously caused the germans to shit
       their pants.  But the real questions are buried in the article---how
       real was this plot, how real is the source, is the source just trying
       to get back to the land of brezeln and bier? Trying to double-cross
       them somehow?

       Also note the tip off from the FBI (cue fred), not the usual CIA
       liaison with BND. 

       For Eurasia, there's a lot in here on the internal politics of the
       interior minister position, and the relation between state and federal
       government. 

       On 11/22/10 8:55 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

         -------- Original Message --------

          Subject: [OS] GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat 
             Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 08:38:21 -0600                          
             From: Graham Smith &lt;graham.smith@stratfor.com&gt;                 
         Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                            
               To: os@stratfor.com                                          

          11/22/2010 11:38 AM
         Fears of a Mumbai Redux
         The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat

         http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,730377,00.html
         By Matthias Bartsch, Yassin Musharbash and Holger Stark

         Germany is currently in a state of high alert. Security officials
         are warning that they have concrete information pointing to a
         possible terror attack on the federal parliament building in Berlin,
         a massively popular tourist attraction. The days of Interior
         Minister Thomas de Maiziere's reserved stances in dealing with such
         warnings appear to be over.

         The call came from abroad, and the man speaking hurriedly on the
         other end of the line sounded as if he feared for his life. He
         wanted out, he told the officers of the German Federal Criminal
         Police Office (BKA) -- out of the terrorist scene. He wanted to come
         back to Germany, back to his family. Then he asked if German
         officials could help him.

         Right now, they're trying to do just that. The BKA is pursuing the
         case under the codename "Nova." The apparently remorseful man could
         be an important possible whistleblower from a dangerous region of
         the globe. In fact, he is also the most recent reason why German
         Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere put the entire country in a
         state of fright on Wednesday.

         During a hastily called press conference that day, de Maiziere
         stated that Germany faced the threat of terrorist attacks that might
         be launched against the country at some point in November. As he put
         it, Germany is "presently dealing with a new situation."
         Just two days earlier, the source had called for the third time in
         just a short period and provided more information. He told officials
         that a small group of terrorists wanted to conduct a raid on the
         Reichstag building in Berlin, which houses the federal parliament,
         and that that was only one of the targets included in their attack
         plans.

         Germany on High Alert

         Since then, Germany has been in a state of high alert. The Reichstag
         is surrounded with barricades and its popular cupola tourist
         attraction temporarily closed to visitors. Police armed with
         submachine guns are patrolling major railway stations and airports.
         And vacations have been called off for officials at the country's
         security agencies. Wherever they have cause for doing so, the
         authorities are secretly monitoring communications, conducting
         surveillance operations and launching undercover investigations. At
         the moment, investigators seem to be at a loss; their modus
         operandi: "We'll prod the shrubs and see if we can flush out any
         birds."

         "There is cause for worry, but no cause for hysteria," de Maiziere
         assured his listeners. But while he has never been much of an
         agitator, his colleagues at the state level have described the
         situation in much more drastic terms. Uwe Schu:nemann, for example,
         who has been the interior minister of the northwestern state of
         Lower Saxony since 2003, stated that he had "never experienced a
         heightened security situation like this one." And Berlin Senator for
         the Interior Ehrhart Ko:rting, whose position is tantamount to that
         of a government minister in the city-state, has already even gone so
         far as to call on the inhabitants of the German capital city to
         report suspicious-looking individuals of Arab origin to the police.
         "If you suddenly see three somewhat strange-looking men who are new
         to your neighborhood, who hide their faces and who only speak
         Arabic," Ko:rting said, "you should report them to the authorities."

         Under heightened pressure, officials in Germany's 16 federal states
         are now checking to see when and where major events are scheduled to
         take place this coming week within their boundaries. And nothing
         suggested as a possible target is being discounted, no matter how
         unlikely. For example, officials in Rhineland-Palatinate warned the
         state's interior minister, Karl Peter Burch, that there was always a
         lot going on at IKEA stores on Saturdays.[WTF]

         Serenity, Scaremongering and Strategy

         Since last week, German politicians at both the state and federal
         levels have once again had to figure out how they will handle
         themselves when making warnings about terrorist attacks. They have
         had to come up with a language that can simultaneously convey both
         an alert and a sense of calm.

         This is no easy task. For one thing, this isn't the first time this
         has happened. In September 2009, for example, right before federal
         elections were held, there were concrete threats that resulted in a
         heightened security situation. But, in the end, nothing happened.
         This time around, people are wondering whether they are on the
         precipice of an emergency or whether these are once again empty
         threats.

         Still, one thing is certain: For the time being, Germany has become
         a different country -- more nervous, more anxious, more agitated.
         And Germany's domestic security policies are being put to the test.

         When Interior Minister de Maiziere assumed his office in October
         2009 in conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel's government, he aimed
         to cool down the heated sense of alarm regularly fanned out by his
         predecessors. What's more, the man who had served as Merkel's chief
         of staff in Chancellery until being moved to the role of interior
         minister in her new government, was given the task of nurturing a
         more relaxed relationship between her party, the Christian
         Democratic Union (CDU), and its new coalition partner, the
         business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP). In particular, it was
         his job to not draw out the long-standing conflict over domestic
         security policies with the Justice Ministry, which has been led
         since the 2009 election by Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, a
         member of the FDP. Indeed, Merkel feared that the quarrelsome FDP
         might try to capitalize on the issue to win over more voters, so she
         assigned de Maiziere to prevent that from happening.

         In fact, the plan was to repeat the same strategy that the CDU and
         its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), had
         used when they were in the so-called "grand coalition" with the
         center-left Social Democratic Party, between 2005 and 2009. At the
         time, they made a point of undermining the SPD by championing what
         had traditionally been the latter party's issues.

         A Game-Changer

         But now the game plan has changed. This November will drastically
         alter de Maiziere's understanding of his role in office. If he tries
         to return things to their previous state of calm, he's going to have
         a very tough time. In fact, it's much more likely that he will be a
         completely different interior minister.

         For a while now, de Maiziere's softer stance has prompted opposition
         by politicians on the right involved with domestic security issues.
         But they are now calling louder than ever for a tougher course to be
         followed. Merkel is also adjusting to the new situation and is
         reportedly happy with the way de Maiziere handled himself last week.
         Likewise, no one seems to have voiced any criticism last Thursday
         evening during a meeting of the Coalition Committee, a regular
         gathering of the parties that are part of the government.

         The almost complete lack of protest has a lot to do with where the
         alarming information is coming from. In fact, information regarding
         the supposedly imminent attacks has come from two independent
         sources. Shortly before receiving the telephone call about the
         planned attacks, BKA officials had received a cable from their
         American counterparts at the FBI, America's federal police force,
         warning of possible attacks.

         Still, what truth is there in these "security-related" pieces of
         information coming from both domestic and foreign sources? And,
         given all the discrepancies in the warning messages, just how much
         do they deserve to be trusted? Indeed, even among security officials
         themselves, there is some doubt about how legitimate these
         statements are -- and about just how acute the danger threatening
         Germany really is.

         An Attack Modelled after Mumbai[plot details in this section]
         What the caller reported was undeniably alarming. According to him,
         al-Qaida and associated groups based in Pakistan were making joint
         preparations for an attack in Germany. One idea was to remotely
         detonate a bomb using a mobile phone. Another called for a small
         group of terrorists to storm the Reichstag with guns blazing, take
         hostages and end everything in one calamitous bloodbath. Indeed, BKA
         officials learned that the latter plan had been modeled on the
         storming of luxury hotels in Mumbai, the Indian capital, almost
         exactly two years ago, in a massacre that left 175 people dead.

         According to the caller, the plan called for the terrorists to
         procure the submachine guns, automatic rifles, explosives and
         whatever else they would need to storm Germany's parliament building
         in the Balkans. He said that two men had already traveled to Germany
         six to eight weeks earlier, adding that one had the nom de guerre of
         "Abu Mohammed" and that the other one was a German of Turkish
         origin. Both apparently had roots in the Greater Berlin metropolitan
         area, were currently unemployed and living off of welfare payments
         and had immersed themselves in the anonymity provided by a major
         city -- until the time should come for their activation.

         Likewise, there were allegedly four other volunteers -- including a
         German, a Turk, a North African and another jihadist of unknown
         identity -- in the training camps run by al-Qaida and related groups
         waiting for the signal to travel to Germany. And, according to the
         telephone source, al-Qaida's plan was to attack in February or
         March.
         The only question now relates to just how credible the caller's
         statements are. He is an insider who joined up with armed groups
         several months ago and has earned a reputation as a fanatic fighter.
         But could it be that he is only trying to tell German officials the
         juiciest things possible in order to raise his own market value and
         thereby prompt them to extract him from the terror scene? Or could
         it be that al-Qaida is even planning a second spectacular coup like
         the one in December 2009, when the Americans allowed a supposedly
         top-level turncoat onto an American military base without any sort
         of pat-down, who went on to detonate his explosive vest and blow
         seven CIA officials to bits?

         A Strange Message

         A clear picture has yet to emerge. And one reason for this is also
         the fact that it was only two weeks ago that the FBI first decided
         to share information about another possible attack with German
         officials.

         In this case, even the way contact was made was unusual. Under
         normal circumstances, liaisons from the CIA station in Germany are
         the ones to communicate American warnings to their German
         counterparts. But, this time around, it was an apparently
         particularly anxious FBI that chose to directly notify the BKA.
         The FBI told the Germans about an obscure Indian group called
         "Saif," or "sword." Despite being a Shiite group, it had allegedly
         made a pact with al-Qaida, a Sunni organization, and sent five of
         its men to the Pakistani province of Waziristan for training.
         According to the FBI, two volunteers -- who were already equipped
         with visas allowing them to travel freely within the 25 European
         countries belonging to the Schengen zone -- were supposedly already
         en route to Germany and would enter the United Arab Emirates on
         Monday, Nov. 22. There, they would allegedly be provided with new
         travel documents before traveling on to Germany. One of the men is
         supposedly named "Khan," which is about as common in that part of
         the world as "Smith" is in English-speaking countries. And no firm
         conclusion had been made about their nationalities.

         The FBI agents even named the presumed masterminds behind the
         operation. A certain Mushtaq Altaf Bin-Khadri, who is in charge of
         finances and training for "Saif," allegedly dispatched the terrorist
         squad. But the FBI was not in a position to comment on the targets
         of the two men in Germany.

         One name came up time and again in the communique, and one that
         pricked the Germans' ears: Dawood Ibrahim. The 54-year-old arms
         trader is "India's most-wanted man." The US government has listed
         him as a "global terrorist" and persuaded the United Nations to
         place his name on a list of supporters of terror. Ibrahim is rumored
         to be the head of D-Company, a criminal syndicate named after
         himself, and is believed to be in charge of smuggling the suspected
         terrorists into Germany.

         Both the FBI and the BKA are attaching a lot of importance to the
         information in the FBI communique. But the intelligence services of
         the two countries -- the CIA in the United States and the BND and
         Office for the Protection of the Constitution in Germany, the
         country's foreign and domestic intelligence agencies, respectively
         -- point to internal contradictions as reasons for their skepticism.
         As they see it, for example, it is highly unlikely that a Shiite
         group would team up with Sunni terrorists, especially since a good
         part of al-Qaida propaganda vilifies Shiites. Other reasons for
         doubt include the facts that none of the intelligence agencies was
         previously familiar with an organization called "Saif," that there
         have been no previously recorded threats against Germany by Indian
         extremists, and that the whole scenario seems rather implausible.

         On the other hand, the FBI information is uncommonly concrete. In
         addition to the names of the suspects, it also provides information
         about the exact day on which they are supposed to arrive in the
         United Arab Emirates. Moreover, Ibrahim is believed to be one of the
         men behind the terror attacks in Mumbai. If he really is involved,
         that alone would be reason enough for worry.

         Abnormal Circumstances

         Under normal circumstances, a message of this kind from the United
         States would no doubt be cause for serious-minded scrutiny, but it
         would not be a cause for alarm. For example, the BKA would go
         through all recent visa applications, and federal police officers
         would take a closer look at all the people entering Germany from
         Arab states. And the intelligence services would make the rounds to
         see if any of its partners had any helpful information on the
         matter.

         Indeed, under normal circumstances, there are always a lot of these
         communiques, most of which turn out to be false alarms. But these
         are no normal circumstances. Germany is in a state of emergency.
         Other countries, such as the United States, employ a system of
         official warning levels based on color codes that change -- from
         yellow to orange, for example -- when the danger level is thought to
         increase. But, in Germany, the interior minister is the barometer:
         He consults with experts -- and then it is he who must call the
         shots.

         For the minister, a situation like this presents a dilemma. If he
         remains silent and something happens, he's a failure. If he makes
         loud warning and nothing happens, he's just a rabble-rouser trying
         to push through controversial tougher security laws. And, of course,
         the public never thanks you if everyday life continues in a normal,
         peaceful way.

         Absolute Security Remains a Pipe Dream

         When de Maiziere became Germany's interior minister, he had planned
         to lead the ministry in a level-headed way. For example, he prefers
         to use phrases such as "internal calm" rather than "internal
         security." And it was only six weeks ago that he uttered the
         sentence: "There's no cause for alarm." But, since then, the chorus
         of warning voices has only ballooned in size.

         This change in course is the combined result of everything that
         happened beforehand. It might very well turn out that the alleged
         Indian terror squad stays home and that the raid on the Reichstag
         never happens. But what will remain is a well-founded supposition
         that there is a critical mass of terrorists in the border region
         between Afghanistan and Pakistan that is thinking about launching
         attacks in Europe -- and certainly in Germany, as well.

         Raw Nerves

         Given such circumstances, there is a major sense of alarm among
         German officials. Last Thursday, just a day after de Maiziere's
         shocking press conference, the BKA issued a press release "in
         connection with the current high-risk situation." It reported that a
         piece of suspicious luggage had been discovered a day earlier in
         Windhoek, the capital of Namibia, before being loaded onto a plane
         bound for Germany. The laptop bag contained batteries, wires, a
         detonator and a clock -- in other words, all the ingredients you
         need for a potential airborne catastrophe.

         It sounded as if another terror plot had been foiled. Had there been
         a plan to blow up Air Berlin Flight 7377 en route to Munich? And had
         the authorities, yet again, discovered an explosive device at the
         last minute? In the end, all the worry was unfounded. As it turned
         out, the piece of luggage was a test device built by a company that
         designs "real test" suitcases to be used to test security measures.
         It remains unclear who checked the bag in. But the fact that the BKA
         was so quick to go into alarm mode -- and publicly so -- has been a
         communications debacle.

         Of course, these days, nobody wants to be the one that wasn't
         sufficiently circumspect, the one who took too long to speak up. No
         one wants a replay of situations like the one from the beginning of
         November, when de Maiziere didn't know for hours whether the package
         that had arrived at the Chancellery contained actual explosives or
         was just a false alarm. Now, the threshold for sounding the alarm is
         already much lower.

         Bonded by Fear

         Of course, you can never be too sure. Over the last 12 months, a
         series of attacks concocted in the Afghan-Pakistani border region
         have been foiled in the West. For example, in May, a car bomb set in
         New York's Times Square by a man with ties to the Pakistani Taliban
         failed to properly detonate. In Copenhagen, al-Qaida had made plans
         to storm the offices of the Jyllands-Posten newspaper as revenge for
         its 2005 publishing of caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad. In
         October 2009, David Headley, an American citizen with Pakistani
         roots, was arrested after having already visited the newspaper's
         offices in order to scout them out before the planned attack. Other
         targets reportedly included the subway systems of New York City and
         Washington.

         On the other hand, absolute security is a pipe dream. For example,
         British authorities had even conducted rehearsals for how to respond
         to possible attacks. But, even so, when attacks claiming 56 lives
         (including those of four attackers) did strike London, on July 7,
         2005, they were unable to prevent them. Likewise, US intelligence
         services had warned India a number of times that terrorists were
         planning attacks in Mumbai.

         The new situation in Germany has at least had one positive side
         effect: For the time being, the traditionally quarrelsome interior
         ministers from both the state and the federal levels have refrained
         from their usual bickering. Following informal talks held last
         Thursday in Hamburg, Minister Bruch of Rhineland-Palatinate noted
         that he had "never experienced such harmony within this group" that
         has apparently been bonded together by their shared fear.

         Translated from the German by Josh Ward

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

     --

     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

     Marko Papic

     Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

     STRATFOR

     700 Lavaca Street - 900

     Austin, Texas

     78701 USA

     P: + 1-512-744-4094

     marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-22 17:50:16</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1033296_re-discussion-germany-ct-the-story-behind-germany-s-terror.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1033431</id>
    <title>Re: Info - Wiki Founder
</title>
    <description>   read this:

   http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/24/world/24assange.html?_r=1&amp;pagewanted=print

   On 12/1/10 2:15 PM, Lena Bell wrote:

     this is a good feature piece The Age newspaper did back in May... a lot
     of people were talking about it then because so little is known about
     the man. Some of the more personal, historical background is pasted
     below after URL. My personal opinion? I think he is very intelligent but
     disenchanted and as journo writes:

     In another life, Assange might have been a mathematician. He spent four
     years studying maths, mostly at Melbourne University - with stints at
     the Australian National University in Canberra - but never graduated,
     disenchanted, he says, with how many of his fellow students were
     conducting research for the US defence system. 'There are key cases
     which are just really f---ing obnoxious,'' he says.

     Assange isn't paid a salary by WikiLeaks. He has investments, which he
     won't discuss. But during the 1990s he worked in computer security in
     Australia and overseas, devised software programmes - in 1997 he
     co-invented ''Rubberhose deniable encryption'', which he describes as a
     cryptographic system made for human rights workers wanting to protect
     sensitive data in the field - and also became a key figure in the free
     software movement.

     http://www.theage.com.au/technology/technology-news/the-secret-life-of-wikileaks-founder-julian-assange-20100521-w1um.html

     The former teenage hacker from Melbourne, whose mystique as an internet
     subversive, a resourceful loner with no fixed address, travelling
     constantly between countries with laptop and backpack, constitutes what
     you might call Assange's romantic appeal.

     But then there's the flip side: a man who believes in extreme
     transparency, but evades and obfuscates when it comes to talking about
     himself in the rare interviews that he gives. In the past, at least,
     these have hardly ever been face to face.

     The secretiveness extends to those close to him. One woman who speaks to
     me on the condition of total anonymity lived in the same share house in
     Melbourne as Assange for a few months in early 2007, when WikiLeaks was
     in its incubation period. The house was the hub, and it was inhabited by
     computer geeks.

     There were beds everywhere, she says. There was even a bed in the
     kitchen. This woman slept on a mattress in Assange's room, and says she
     would sometimes wake up in the middle of the night to find him still
     glued to his computer. He frequently forget to eat or sleep, wrote
     mathematical formulas all over the walls and the doors, and used only
     red light bulbs in his room - on the basis that early man, if waking
     suddenly, would see only the gentle light of the campfire, and fall
     asleep again. He also went through a period of frustration that the
     human body has to be fed several times a day and experimented with
     eating just one meal every two days, in order to be more efficient. ''He
     was always extremely focused,'' she says.

     Assange first visited Sweden in the 1990s - and WikiLeaks is hosted on a
     main server in Sweden, where the identities of confidential sources are
     protected by law.

     This doesn't prove anything, of course - and WikiLeaks only moved its
     main server to Sweden two years ago, after the Julius Baer Bank tried to
     close down the website. Even so, I email Eva Gabrielsson, Larsson's
     widow, to ask if the two of them ever met Assange - explaining that he
     helped research a remarkable 1997 book, /Underground/, about the
     exploits of an extraordinary group of young Melbourne hackers, written
     by the Melbourne academic Suelette Dreyfus. The hackers all had monikers
     in the book: Assange is said to be the character Mendax. Assange
     convinced Dreyfus to release the book online, and according to one
     source I spoke to, there was great interest in the book in Sweden - and
     in China.

     ''About Julian Assange - well, why don't you ask him?'' Gabrielsson
     emails back.

     It isn't the most urgent question I have for Assange, who I meet in
     early May, the day after he slips back into Melbourne, his home town. He
     arrived on a flight from Europe, via the US. Or so I understand from the
     person acting as our inbetween.

     The same contact provides a Melbourne address, and instructions. ''Don't
     call a cab, find one on the street; turn off your mobile phone before
     you catch the cab and preferably, remove the batteries.''

     And here he is - a tall, thin, pale figure with that remarkable white
     hair, looking very tired, and wearing creased, student-style dark
     clothes and boots, and backpack.

     As we shake hands, he inclines his head slightly in a courtly, old world
     manner, at odds with his youthful, student-traveller looks. When I
     remark that there's a lot to ask him, he replies, ''That's all right -
     I'm not going to answer half of it.''

     Is Assange his real name? Yes, he replies, then says it's the name in
     his passport. ''What's in a name?'' he then adds mysteriously, casting
     doubt on his first answer.

     At the time of writing, his passport status was apparently back to
     normal after immigration officials at Melbourne Airport said that his
     passport was going to be cancelled on the grounds that it was too tatty.

     It has been in a couple of rivers, Assange allows of the state of his
     passport. The first time, as he recalls, in December 2006, when he was
     crossing a swollen river during heavy rain in southern Tasmania, and was
     swept out to sea. He swam back in. ''My conclusion from that experience
     is that the universe doesn't give a damn about you, so it's a good thing
     you do.''

     Why did he have his passport with him? He had everything he needed for
     three weeks of survival, he replies. He needed his passport for ID when
     he flew to Tasmania.

     Doesn't he have a driver's licence? ''No comment.''

     How true is the image of him as the enigmatic founder of WikiLeaks,
     constantly on the move, with no real place to call home? Is this really
     how he lives his life?

     ''Do I live my life as an enigmatic man?''

     No - is it true you're constantly on the move?

     ''Pretty much true.''

     Does he have one base he'd call home?

     ''I have four bases where I would go if I was sick, which is how I think
     about where home is.''

     He has spent the best part of the past six months in Iceland, he says.
     And the next six months? ''It depends on which area of the world I'm
     needed most. We're an international organisation. We deal with
     international problems,'' he replies.

     Assange mentions four bases, but names only two. The one in Iceland and
     another in Kenya, where he has spent a lot of time, on and off, in the
     past couple of years.

     The Kroll report, released on WikiLeaks, reportedly swung the Kenyan
     presidential election in 2007.

     When he's in the country, Assange lives in a compound in Nairobi with
     other foreigners, mainly members of NGOs such as Medecins Sans
     Frontieres. He originally went to Kenya in 2007 to give a lecture on
     WikiLeaks, when it was up and running. ''And ended up staying there,'' I
     suggest encouragingly.

     ''Mmmm.''

     As a result of liking the place or ...

     ''Well, it has got extraordinary opportunities for reforms. It had a
     revolution in the 1970s. It has only been a democracy since 2004 ... I
     was introduced to senior people in journalism, in human rights very
     quickly.''

     He has travelled to Siberia. Is there a third base there?

     ''No comment. I wish. The bear steak is good.''

     Why did he go to Georgia?

     ''How do you know about that?''

     I read it somewhere, I reply. It was a rumour. ''Ah, a rumour,'' he
     says.

     But he did go there? ''It's better that I don't comment on that, because
     Georgia is not such a big place.''

     Living permanently in a state of exile, which can become addictive,
     means that you always have the sharp eye of the outsider, I suggest.

     ''The sense of perspective that interaction with multiple cultures gives
     you I find to be extremely valuable, because it allows you to see the
     structure of a country with greater clarity, and gives you a sense of
     mental independence,'' Assange replies.

     "You're not swept up in the trivialities of a nation. You can
     concentrate on the serious matters. Australia is a bit of a political
     wasteland. That's OK, as long as people recognise that. As long as
     people recognise that Australia is a suburb of a country called
     Anglo-Saxon.''

     Could he ever live in one place again? A brief silence. ''I don't think
     so,'' he says finally.

     ''I don't see myself as a computer guru,'' he remarks at one point. ''I
     live a broad intellectual life. I'm good at a lot of things, except for
     spelling.''

     At one point, thinking about some of the material leaked on WikiLeaks, I
     ask Assange how he defines national security. ''We don't,'' he says
     crisply. "We're not interested in that. We're interested in justice. We
     are a supranational organisation. So we're not interested in national
     security.''

     How does he justify keeping his own life as private as possible,
     considering that he believes in extreme transparency?

     ''I don't justify it,'' he says, with just a hint of mischievousness.
     ''No one has sent us any official documents that were not published
     previously on me. Should they do so, and they meet our editorial
     criteria, we will publish them.''

     Assange isn't paid a salary by WikiLeaks. He has investments, which he
     won't discuss. But during the 1990s he worked in computer security in
     Australia and overseas, devised software programmes - in 1997 he
     co-invented ''Rubberhose deniable encryption'', which he describes as a
     cryptographic system made for human rights workers wanting to protect
     sensitive data in the field - and also became a key figure in the free
     software movement.

     The whole point of free software, he comments, is to ''liberate it in
     all senses''. He adds: ''It' s part of the intellectual heritage of man.
     True intellectual heritage can't be bound up in intellectual property.''

     Did being arrested, and later on finding himself in a courtroom, push
     him into a completely different reality that he had never thought about
     - and eventually in a direction that eventually saw him start thinking
     along the lines of a website like WikiLeaks, that would take on the
     world?

     ''That [experience] showed me how the justice system and bureaucracy
     worked, and did not work; what its abilities were and what its
     limitations were,'' he replies. ''And justice wasn't something that came
     out of the justice system. Justice was something that you bring to the
     justice system. And if you're lucky, or skilled, and you're in a country
     that isn't too corrupt, you can do that.''

     In another life, Assange might have been a mathematician. He spent four
     years studying maths, mostly at Melbourne University - with stints at
     the Australian National University in Canberra - but never graduated,
     disenchanted, he says, with how many of his fellow students were
     conducting research for the US defence system.

     ''There are key cases which are just really f---ing obnoxious,'' he
     says.

     According to Assange, the US Defence Advance Research Project Agency was
     funding research which involved optimising the efficiency of a military
     bulldozer called the Grizzly Plough, which was used in the Iraqi desert
     during Operation Desert Storm during the 1991 Gulf War.

     ''It has a problem in that it gets damaged [from] the sand rolling up in
     front. The application of this bulldozer is to move at 60 kilometres an
     hour, sweeping barbed wire and so on before it, and get the sand and put
     it in the trenches where the [Iraqi] troops are, and bury them all alive
     and then roll over the top. So that's what Melbourne University's
     applied maths department was doing - studying how to improve the
     efficiency of the Grizzly Plough.''

     Assange says he did a lot of soul-searching before he finally quit his
     studies in 2007. He had already started working with other people on a
     model of WikiLeaks by early 2006.

     There were people at the physics conference, he goes on, who were career
     physicists, ''and there was just something about their attire, and the
     way they moved their bodies, and of course the bags on their backs
     didn't help much either. I couldn't respect them as men''.

     His university experience didn't define his cynicism, though. Assange
     says that he's extremely cynical anyway. ''I painted every corner,
     floor, wall and ceiling in the 'room' I was in, black, until there was
     only one corner left. I mean intellectually,'' he adds. ''To me, it was
     the forced move [in chess], when you have to do something or you'll lose
     the game.''

     So WikiLeaks was his forced move?

     ''That's the way it feels to me, yes. There were no other options left
     to me on the table.''

     WikiLeaks, he says, has released more classified documents than the rest
     of the world press combined.

     ''That's not something I say as a way of saying how successful we are -
     rather, that shows you the parlous state of the rest of the media. How
     is it that a team of five people has managed to release to the public
     more suppressed information, at that level, than the rest of the world
     press combined? It's disgraceful.''

     Where does Assange see WikiLeaks in 10 years? "It's not what I want the
     world to be. It's what I want the rest of the world to be," he replies.

     He would like to see all media develop their own forms of WikiLeaks.
     That would put his own website out of business, I point out.

     ''We have a proposal to [an American foundation] for a grant to just
     that,'' he replies, explaining that WikiLeaks could create systems for
     all media organisations.

     A thought: has he ever met Rupert Murdoch? ''No.''

     Fred Burton wrote:

       Lena - What is this dude's Aussie background?  He seems like a lunatic
       or a left-winger?  Angry Aussie w/an axe to grind.  Belongs in Swedish
       politics.
       FBI is in bed w/the Aussies.  I'm sure we are listening in to every
       call
       the jamoke is making.
       Lena Bell wrote:
        

         Not sure that's happening re Oz; federal police have opened up an
         investigation to see whether or not any Australian criminal laws
         were
         broken. - where did Nick get the insight about an agreed extradition
         -
         there is nothing about this on OS and of course it would mean
         Assange
         would have to come home first. Something he is very unlikely to do.
         GovGen hasn't ruled out canceling his passport incidentally.
         His mother has recently been interviewed by the ABC and she is
         scared
         that he will be "hunted down and jailed"...  will make it difficult
         to
         pursue the scenario painted below. Australians are likely to back
         him.
         You wouldn't believe how much press/public sentiment david hicks
         created in Guantanamo Bay. It really forced the Howard govt to
         change
         tactics... esp when polling results overall were so poor.**

         Bayless Parsley wrote:
            

           The main thing I was trying to ask about earlier was in regards to
           the logistics of actually detaining the guy.

           I got the sense that Fred was saying US agents could physically do
           it
           in another country. Perhaps I just misunderstood what he was
           trying
           to say, because I find that really hard to believe (as rendition
           is
           not an option in this case, which is why I brought up the fact
           that
           some Republican congressmen are trying to call Assange a
           "terrorist"
           now).

           Basic fact is that any move to arrest the guy (assuming they get
           an
           indictment for him) would require that a friendly government do it
           and then extradite him. Nick Miller told me the Australians have
           already offered to do this, as Assange is an Australian citizen,
           and
           Australia is the Canada of the southern hemisphere when it comes
           to
           its relations with the US.

           Also, Karen had a very good point about the sex charges. Weren't
           those dropped months ago after the initial allegations? What do ya
           know, after the US explictly warned him time and again to stop
           publishing the cables, it pops back up all of a sudden...

           On 12/1/10 12:36 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:
                

             can you charge them with anything if they paid for the
             information?

             On Dec 1, 2010, at 12:35 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                    

               You mean by helping Manning get the information off the
               networks? Training, computer codes, flash drives, etc?? 
               That's a good point. On 12/1/10 12:31 PM, George Friedman
               wrote:
                        

                 He might have facilitated or suborned the access. For
                 example,
                 provided the means for distirbuting it.

                 Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

                 ------------------------------------------------------------------------

                 *From: *Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
                 *Date: *Wed, 1 Dec 2010 12:19:09 -0600 (CST)
                 *To: *Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
                 *ReplyTo: *Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
                 *Subject: *Re: Info - Wiki Founder

                 I think it's very difficult to indict him on anything
                 though. MAYBE espionage, but even those laws are still too
                 old.  I think
                 your FBI contact is right (sadly).  the US can really only
                 get the
                 person who did the leak, not who published it--George also
                 pointed
                 this out over the weekend. What would the sealed indictment
                 be for?

                 (this is also why they will get him on some other charges in
                 another country....)

                 On 12/1/10 12:15 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
                            

                   Sealed indictment.  Hand the warrant over to the USMS to
                   execute.
                   Happens everyday.  The USMS works w/their counterparts and
                   lock
                   the dude
                   up.
                   Bayless Parsley wrote:
                                         

                     How would it work if the US wanted to catch such a high
                     profile
                     target
                     like this? Despite what one Republican senator may have
                     said the
                     other
                     day (can't remember who, or if it was even a senator),
                     he's not a
                     "terrorist," and so rendition..... wouldn't really be an
                     option.

                     But legally, you'd have to have the host government's
                     cooperation. Is
                     there any way aside from that scenario that could lead
                     to his
                     arrest
                     on charges of breaking US laws?

                     On 12/1/10 12:12 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
                                               

                       &gt;From a very good contact @ the FBI --

                       How come you guys haven't picked this left-wing
                       lunatic
                       WikiLeaks founder up on
                       some sort of trumped up charge? 
                       ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

                       1st Amendment overprotects journalists.
                                                          

                 -- 
                 Sean Noonan
                 Tactical Analyst
                 Office: +1 512-279-9479
                 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
                 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
                 www.stratfor.com
                            

               -- 
               Sean Noonan
               Tactical Analyst
               Office: +1 512-279-9479
               Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
               Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
               www.stratfor.com
                        
</description>
    <date>2010-12-01 21:17:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1033431_re-info-wiki-founder-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bayless.parsley@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1033882</id>
    <title>Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta conflict in
	context
</title>
    <description>   He has long been pegged as a Zeta supporter in the Mexican Media and even
   the LA Times. There are videos all over Youtube that say he's a crook.
    
   From: Marko Primorac &lt;marko.primorac@stratfor.com&gt;
   Reply-To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Tue, 1 Nov 2011 17:25:49 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict in context
   Great stuff -- I guess one thing you may want to maybe that no legal
   action has been taken against Rosario Torres to date over the Anonymous
   posting.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Matt Mawhinney" &lt;matt.mawhinney@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 5:16:18 PM
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict        in context

   One comment in blue. 

   On 11/1/11 4:51 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     also i don't think widget is the appropriate term - script maybe?
     protocol? kevin might actually know the technical term.

     On 11/1/11 4:48 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

       I think it might be good to mention what was said in the dispatch
       discussion: that this is a brand new type of cyber attack against
       cartels, exposing rather than intel collection and disruption, which
       is what government agencies do.

       On 11/1/11 1:11 PM, scott stewart wrote:

          Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta Conflict in Context

         On Oct. 31, the online activist collective Anonymous posted a
         message to the internet  in which it stated that it was continuing
         with its campaign against the Mexican criminal cartels and their
         governmentsupporters despite the inherent danger.

          

         The messageurged inexperienced activists who might not be practicing
         proper online security measures to abstain from participating. It
         also urged individuals associated with Anonymous to not conduct
         physical pamphlet drops, participate in protests, wear or purchase
         Guy Fawkes masks, or use Guy Fawkes imagery in their internet or
         physical world activities.  Guy Fawkes was British Catholic
         conspirator who was involved in a plot to bomb the British
         Parliament in 1605, and who has become somewhat of an Anarchist icon
         in the United Kingdom. The British celebrate Guy Fawkes Day each
         year on Nov. 5, and the day has special meaning for the anarchists. 
         Not incorrect but the use of the Guy Fawkes mask as the face of Anon
         stems from the graphic novel and subsequent Hollywood movie V for
         Vendetta.

          

         It is not coincidental then, that in their Oct. 6 video, Anonymous
         set Nov. 5 as the deadline for Los Zetas to release the Anonymous
         associate who was allegedly kidnapped in Veracruz by Los Zetas. The
         Anonymous associate was reportedly abducted during an Anonymous
         leaflet campaign called Operation Paperstorm.

          

         The Oct. 31message acknowledged that the operation against Los
         Zetas, dubbed "# OpCartel" I am not sure if the hashtag is not just
         the twitter handle, should be checked is dangerous and noted that
         the collective would be assembling a hand-picked group of known and
         trusted associates to participate in a special task force to execute
         the operation. It asked supporters to use a software widget they had
         developed in order to anonymously pass information pertaining to
         drug trafficking to the task force, which will then distribute it. 

          

         With Nov. 5, approaching, and at least some elements of Anonymous
         not backing down on their threats to Los Zetas, we thought it would
         be useful to provide some context to the present conflict between
         Anonymous and Los Zetas and to also address some of its potential
         implications.

          

         Context

          

         First it issignificant to understand that the epicenter of this
         event is Veracruz, which  has been a very busy place over the past
         few months in terms of Mexico's cartel wars. The port city also
         serves as a critical transportation hub for the narcotics smuggling
         activities of the Los Zetas cartel. Because of this, Stratfor has
         identified Veracruz as [link
         http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111024-mexican-drug-war-update-polarization-continues
         ] a bellweather city thatwill help determine the trajectory of the
         Los Zetas cartel in the coming months. 

          

         One of the big recent developments in Veracruz was the Sinaloa
         cartel's push into the Zeta stronghold using the [link
         http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110928-mexico-security-memo-zetas-defensive-veracruz
         ] Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), which using the name
         Matazetas (Zeta killers) conducted some high-profile body dumps of
         over 50 alleged low-level Zeta operatives on Sept. 20 and 22.  On
         Oct. 25, Mexican Marines arrested Carlos Arturo Pitalua-Carillo, "El
         Bam Bam," who was Los Zetas plaza boss in Veracruz.  This means that
         in Veracruz at the present time, Los Zetas are feeling pressure from
         both the Government of Mexico and the CJNG.

          

         Into this dynamic flow, we had the Anonymous internet collective
         begin to take action in Veracruz in August. In response to what
         Anonymous saw as the state of Veracruz supporting the Los Zetas
         cartel, they launched Operation Paperstorm, in which activists
         associated with the Anonymous collective distributed leaflets
         throughout Veracruz claiming the state government supports Los
         Zetas.  They conducted major leaflet distributions on Aug. 13, 20,
         and 29. They also released videos to the internet on Aug. 26 and 29,
         condemning the State of Veracruz. (According to the Oct. 6 Anonymous
         video, Los Zetas allegedly kidnapped one of the activists involved
         in Operation Paperstorm.)

          

         Activities outside of Veracruz have also played a part in setting
         the stage. On Sept. 13, two people were tortured and killed and
         their bodies hung from a pedestrianoverpass in Nuevo Laredo,
         Tamaulipas state.  Signs left with the bodies signified that Los
         Zetas had killed the pair because they had posted information
         pertaining to Los Zetas on blogs that specialize in reporting on the
         Mexican cartels. On Sept 26, the body of Marisol Macias Casteneda
         was found beheaded in a park in Nuevo Laredo.   Macias who worked
         for a local newspaper allegedly posted on cartel blogs using the
         nickname "Laredo Girl." A message found with her body noted that she
         was killed by Los Zetas due to her online activities.

          

         Following the death of Laredo Girl, Anonymous claimed responsibility
         for a distributed denial of service (DDOS) attack conducted against
         the official website of the state of Veracruz. Although she was
         killed by Los Zetas in Nuevo Laredo Tamaulipas, Anonymous said their
         attack on the Veracruz state website was because of the death of
         Laredo Girl.

          

         It is also important to recognize that Anonymous was also unhappy
         with the State of Veracruz over the decision of the state to
         prosecute two individuals who had posted false kidnapping reports on
         Twitter on Aug. 25. The false reports alleged that a group of
         children had been abducted from a Veracruz school and the panic
         caused by the report allegedly resulted in some two dozen traffic
         accidents as terrified parents rushed to the school to check o n
         their children. The so-called "twitter terrorists" were initially
         charged with offenses that could have carried a 30-year sentence.
         Anonymous, which has absolute freedom of speech on the internet as
         one of its foundational principles, took umbrage with this stiff
         penalty for the Twitter case - especially because it stood in stark
         contrast with the impunity many cartel figures enjoy in Mexico. 

          

          

         Following the Oct. 6 release of the video in which Anonymous
         threatened Los Zetas if they did not release the kidnapped anonymous
         activist, Stratfor began to focus on the story, and in light of the
         approaching Nov. 5 deadline, decided to publish an, [link
         http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111028-mexicos-cartels-draw-online-activists-ire
         ] analysis of the topic, which was released on Oct. 28.  

          

         Following the release of our analysis, the topic has received a
         great deal of media coverage. This publicity has generated a very
         interesting response from Anonymous -- one that emphasizes the fast
         that it is a collective of people and not an organization.  As some
         Anonymousactivists were backing off the issue, erasing online user
         accounts, suggesting that the operation against Los Zetas had been a
         hoax and claiming that no activist had been kidnapped, other
         activists suggested that the campaign should be suspended. Still
         other activists became more strident and determined in their posts,
         urging that the campaign continue. Since Anonymous is a collective,
         activists can pick and choose which actions they will participate
         in. that means in his case that those activists who want to refrain
         from the campaign will and those who want to participate will
         continue it.

          

         This will to continue was manifested on Oct. 29, the personal
         website of Gustavo RosarioTorres, the former attorney general of the
         Mexican state of Tobasco was hacked and defaced with a message from
         Anonymous Mexico stating that Rosario was aZeta -  It was also
         reflected in the tone of the Oct. 31 message. Some activists
         associated with Anonymous clearly feel compelled to continue with
         the campaign due to the outpouring of public support they received
         in the wake of the media coverage. According to the Oct 31. Video
         statement:

          

         "we received many expressions of support and solidarity as well as
         the voices of people crying for help. We must remember that we are
         on the side of the people, and we cannot let down the people,
         especially in critical moments like the one they currently live in."

          

         We therefore anticipate that some Anonymous activists will continue
         the campaign. We also believe that Los Zetas will respond.

          

         Revenge of the Sith (Yes Kamran, I agree with Isa that Star Wars is
         better than Star Trek)  Star Wars III-IV are, the rest don't exist
         in my book.

          

         The variouscartel groups in Mexico have long used the internet as a
         place to trumpet their triumphs on the battlefield and to taunt and
         even degrade their enemies. The cartels have posted videos of them
         torturing, executing and beheading members of opposing cartels. They
         also frequently monitor narco blogs and sometimeseven post on them. 
         As demonstrated by the blogger killings in Nuevo Laredo in
         September, Los Zetas appear to possess at least some rudimentary
         capability to trace online activity to people in thephysical world.
         It is not known if they employ their own team of dedicated cyber
         experts or if they rely on sources within the Mexican government -
         although the most likely answer is probably a little of both. 

          

          

         In past Anonymous actions, like the Dec. 2010 attack against Pay Pal
         following the Wikileaks case, governments in the U.S. and the UK
         have arrested numerous individuals associated with Anonymous who
         allegedly participated in the attack. In June 2011, Turkey arrested
         dozens of activists associated with Anonymousactions conducted
         against the Turkish government for its efforts to establish a
         national internet filtering system.

          

         Los Zetas, like the other Mexican cartels, do not take affronts
         lightly. Even if Anonymous is not able to provide information that
         will damage Los Zetas smuggling operations, the very fact that this
         group has decided to challenge Los Zetas publicly will result in
         some sort of response. The big question is: do theypossess the
         capability to effectively trace the organizers of the
         Anonymousaction against them?

          

         One problem with an entity such as Anonymous is that it is
         intentionally amorphous - it is also as transnational as the
         internet, and it would not be surprising if many of those chosen to
         participate in the operation against Los Zetas are located outside
         of Mexico in locations such as the U.S. and Europe which are outside
         the immediate reach of Los Zetas.

          

         But the amorphous nature of Anonymous can also cut the other way. 
         If Los Zetas pick up and execute some random patrons from an
         internet cafe, behead them and place Guy Fawkesmasks on their heads,
         it will be very difficult to prove that they were not  associated
         with  Anonymous.  As Anonymous noted in their Oct. 31 video, this is
         dangerous business.

          

          

         The Big Picture

          

         One thing to watch as the Anonymous operation continues is the way
         in which the Mexican public reacts. Many people in the Mexican
         middle and upper classes have been deeply affected by the criminal
         cartels and theviolence the practice. We talk to many people in
         Mexico who are fearful of being kidnapped. In many communities,
         especially places like Juarez, Torreon, Monterrey and Veracruz,
         businessmen are being caught in a terrible bind. On one hand, they
         are receiving ever-increasing extortion demands from the cartels,
         while at the same time their business revenues are dwindling because
         people are afraid to go out due to the violence associated with
         those same cartels. This is forcing many businessmen out of
         business. It is also creating a great deal of frustration and
         resentment.

          

         At the same time, Mexico has become one of the most dangerous
         countries in the world for journalists, and many media companies
         practice heavy self-censorship to protect themselves. In the wake of
         the September blogger killings some of the narco blogs, like Blog
         del Narco, have also exhibited strong signs of fear inspired
         self-censorship.   This means that the legitimate press is not able
         to be of any real aid to the Mexican people.

          

         Mexican citizens are also frustrated with their government, which is
         well-known for corruption.  This is the sentiment feeding Anonymous'
         original campaign in Veracruz.  This frustration has lead some
         people to begin to talk about

         vigilante groups to fight the cartels - though that has been
         attempted before in Mexico and as we saw in the case of [link
         http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090714_mexico_la_familia_michoacana_expands_its_attacks
         ] La Familia MichoacA!n, which originally began as such a vigilante
         group, vigilantism frequently does not end well.

          

         This is where Anonymous may fit in. With Mexican citizens unable to
         rely on their government, the media or even armed vigilante groups
         for assistance, they may embrace Anonymous and come to view its form
         of cyber vigilantism as an outlet for their frustration -- and a
         safe way to pass oninformation pertaining to cartel activities.  If
         this occurs, we may see people not just in Veracruz and other Zeta
         controlled areas providing information to Anonymous, but citizens
         from all over the country.

          

         Also, in the same way that cartels leak information togovernments in
         an effort to use them as weapons against their rivals, we could also
         very well see groups such as the Sinaloa cartel provide information
         on Los Zetas to Anonymous. This of course would provide even more
         reason for Los Zetas to strike out against the activist collective.
         Eventually Anonymous could turn their sites on the other cartels. I
         wonder if the other cartels are thinking of Anonymous more as a
         potential threat/annoyance or a way to weaken the Zetas. Probably  a
         little bit of both at this point.

          

         If the Anonymous information campaign does indeed take off, and if
         Anonymous is attacked by Los Zetas, the activists could resort to
         releasing sensitive information to the U.S. Drug Enforcement
         Administration in an attempt to damage Los Zetas. This would be an
         incredible irony in light of the way Anonymous has viewed itself as
         an opponent of the U.S. government in cases like Wikileaks. 

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Matt Mawhinney
 ADP
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: 512.744.4300 A| M: 267.972.2609 A| F: 512.744.4334
 www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-02 01:51:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1033882_re-s-weekly-for-comment-placing-the-anonymous-vs-zeta.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1034764</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in Iran
</title>
    <description>   I am not saying that we should believe something only when it hits the OS.
   My point is about proceeding forward from a single source report. We
   shouldn't completely dismiss it but the issue is confirmation before
   something related pops up in the OS.

   On 11/14/11 9:30 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

     Yes but an intelligence agency that secures a single piece of insight
     that is then corroborated by the infamous OS leads one to believe that
     either the same source is responsible for both or perhaps there is smoke
     that indicates a fire?    We tend to not believe things unless there is
     OS.  The best intel never see's the light of day.  I'm more circumspect
     when it is in the OS...unless of course, we planted it.  

     p.s. I'm offended that we may believe an Iranian before a Jew. 

     cc:  APAC, JINSA. 

     On 11/14/2011 8:21 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

       As an intelligence entity we can't simply accept a single piece of
       insight as truth.

       On 11/14/11 9:10 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

         Guerrilla actions behind enemy lines.  

         If we think the Izzies have set back waiting on Iran to create a
         bomb we are like the CIA with their inability to predict just about
         anything. 

         Check INSIGHT I posted last week that everyone discounted.  How come
         if its not in OS we nash our teeth?  Intelligence agencies exist to
         have sources.  That is what we are.  

         On 11/14/2011 8:06 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

           Penetrating a major military installation and causing a blast is a
           totally different ballgame. Not saying it can't happen. But we
           can't assume that because they did stuxnet that they are capable
           of doing this blast as well. It is a huge leap in capabilities.

           Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
           Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
           Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 08:03:34 -0600 (CST)
           To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
           ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
           Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
           blast in Iran
           It clearly does not. Look at the thousand centrifuges. Please
           reread the 2 stuxnet analyses.

           There are enough iranians who have aliyah'd to israel that they
           could easily train a persian looking, farsi speaking jew to go
           into Iran for sabotage and not get caught. I don't know that this
           is happening nor do I assume that there would not be mistakes, but
           its very possible to do this undetected. The key is recruiting
           human agents on the bases. This was clearly done with stuxnet,
           though it may have been unknowingly

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: "Kamran Bokhari" &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
           Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
           Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 07:59:47 -0600 (CST)
           To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
           ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
           Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
           blast in Iran
           Yeah this seems really unlikely. '79 was a whole different
           reality. The security establishment has the placed locked down.
           Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: Abe Selig &lt;abe.selig@stratfor.com&gt;
           Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
           Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 07:45:14 -0600 (CST)
           To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
           ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
           Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
           blast in Iran
           There are still about 20,000 Jews in Iran (Tehran and Esfahan
           mostly), but IMO, they are far too scared of being accused as
           Israeli spies too actually help Israel out.

           On 11/14/11 7:32 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

             Ah.  As stick said, they would more likely use proxies.  But if
             not,  special operations forces do often move undetected.  Don't
             think of them as going in on a helicopter, think of them as
             going in with a group of migrant workers crossing the border. 
             There used to be a lot of jews in Iran, not so much anymore,
             that's who I would recruit form. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: "Kamran Bokhari" &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
             To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
             Sent: Monday, November 14, 2011 7:11:15 AM
             Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
             blast in Iran

             See insight below.
             Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
             Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
             Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 07:10:06 -0600 (CST)
             To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
             ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
             Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
             blast in Iran
             what commandos?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: "Kamran Bokhari" &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
             To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
             Sent: Monday, November 14, 2011 6:39:07 AM
             Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
             blast in Iran

             How did Israeli commandos get to operate deep inside Iran
             without being detected?
             Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
             Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
             Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 05:54:41 -0600 (CST)
             To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
             ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
             Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
             blast in Iran
             I agree.  The argument here is that the proponents of
             conventional war are ones that want the oil prices--but is it
             really that simple?  What about other economic effects?  For
             Israel, by this argument, it doesn't matter what method as long
             as it sets Iran back----I agree with this.  However, the
             confidence that this guy has does not show publicly.  By that, I
             mean look at what Dagan was saying a year ago, and how quiet
             Israeli leaders have been.  Suddenly they are really pushing the
             issue, and while Dagan isn't it, his line is that conventional
             war would be a mistake, not that Iran doesn't need to be dealt
             with.  I don't really like trying to interpret public
             statements, but I think there is something here, and that's why
             I keep pushing this. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: "Chris Farnham" &lt;chris.farnham@stratfor.com&gt;
             To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
             Sent: Sunday, November 13, 2011 7:22:52 PM
             Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
             blast in Iran

             I think the info that Fred sent in previously needs to be looked
             quite seriously here.

             The insight seems like quite a stretch however it has been put
             out there for some reason or another and is now playing in to
             what we are seeing.

             Insight below:

             Source below was asked to clarify his remarks that the nuclear
             infrastructure had been destroyed.  Source response:

             Israeli commandos in collaboration with Kurd forces destroyed
             few underground facilities mainly used for the Iranian defense
             and nuclear research projects.

             Despite the reports in the media and against any public
             knowledge, the promoter of a massive Israeli attack on Syria is
             the axis India-Russia-Turkey-Saudi Arabia. The axis
             US-Germany-France-China is against such an attack from obvious
             reasons. Not many people know that Russia is one of Israel's
             largest military partners and India is Israel's largest client.

             If a direct conflict between Iran and Israel erupts, Russia and
             Saudi Arabia will gain the advantages on oil increasing prices.
             On the other hand, China and Europe are expected to loose from
             an oil crisis as a result of a conflict. Based on Israeli plans,
             the attack on Iran will last only 48 hours but will be so
             destructive that Iran will be unable to retaliate or recover and
             the government will fall. It is hard to believe that Hamas or
             Hezbollah will try to get involved in this conflict.

             In the open media many are pushing and expecting Israel to
             launch a massive attack on Iran. Even if the Israelis have the
             capabilities and are ready to attack by air, sea and land, there
             is no need to attack the nuclear program at this point after the
             commandos destroyed a significant part of it.

             If a massive attack on Iran happens soon, then the attack will
             have political and oil reasons and not nuclear. It is also very
             hard to believe that the Israelis will initiate an attack unless
             they act as a contractor for other nations or if Iran or its
             proxies attack first. With the revealed of the new UN report the
             Israelis have green light to take care of the Iranian proxies in
             Gaza and Lebanon now with the entire world watching Iran. I
             think that we should expect escalations on these fronts rather
             than an Israeli attack on Iran.

             On 11/7/11 8:09 AM, Chris Farnham wrote: Ah, what? Israel has
             already destroyed the Iranian prog/infra and this is all being
             engineered by Europeans so people forget about the economy
             crisis?!

             How and when did the Israelis destroy the infra on the ground?

             Why is that we see the vast majority of the increase in pressure
             coming from Israel (I mean straight from people's mouths) and
             from the US (Such as Albright in the WaPo)?

             Would anyone actually accept that this could let the Europeans
             forget about the Euro crisis, something they have been
             experiencing every day for over a year?!

             Do we attribute any credibility to this item at all? I don't
             even see what possible disinfo purposes this could serve.

             On 11/7/11 7:54 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

               Code: IL701
               Publication: for background
               Attribution: none
               Source Description - Confirmed Israeli Intelligence Agent
               Source reliability: Still testing
               Item credibility: untested
               Source handler: Fred

               Source was asked what he thought of reports that the Israelis
               were preparing a military offensive against Iran.  Response:

               I think this is a diversion. The Israelis already destroyed
               all the Iranian nuclear infrastructure on the ground weeks
               ago. The current "let's bomb Iran" campaign was ordered by the
               EU leaders to divert the public attention from their at home
               financial problems. It plays also well for the US  since
               Pakistan, Russia and N. Korea are mentioned in the report. 

               The result of this campaign will be massive attacks on Gaza
               and strikes on Hezbollah in both Lebanon and Syria.

               --

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
             To: analysts@stratfor.com
             Sent: Monday, 14 November, 2011 11:52:04 AM
             Subject: Re: S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in
             Iran

             wow, that's an extremely revealing statement.  The Israelis (i
             believe it was even Barak then too) made very similar comments
             following the Stuxnet news as well.  THe whole 'I'm not going to
             admit publicly that we did it, but boy that was nice.' 

             i think we need a piece laying out the details as far as we know
             of what happened and where and point out the holes in the
             accident theory. i think our assessment on the constraints of an
             Israeli attack on Iranian sites holds. It's the sabotage efforts
             where the most resources are being concentrated, which makes a
             lot of strategic and tactical sense for Israel and US in dealing
             with Iran at this stage

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: "Ben West" &lt;ben.west@stratfor.com&gt;
             To: "alerts" &lt;alerts@stratfor.com&gt;
             Sent: Sunday, November 13, 2011 2:40:06 PM
             Subject: S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in
             Iran

             Interesting comments by the defense minister.

             http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i28MvYyqR9sGxc2cZ4U1QlPPQFLA?docId=CNG.93c1b5af9b6cb71a17bf389563809eb2.a1
             Israel hails deadly blast in Iran

             (AFP) - 1 hour ago 

             JERUSALEM - Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak on Sunday hailed
             the deadly munitions blast at a base of Iran's elite
             Revolutionary Guards and hoped for more such incidents.

             "I don't know the extent of the explosion," he told military
             radio, asked about the incident. "But it would be desirable if
             they multiply."

             Iran said earlier that a senior general who pioneered an
             artillery and missile unit was among the 17 Guards reported
             killed in Saturday's blast at Bid Ganeh, near the town of Malard
             on the western outskirts of Tehran.

             Guards spokesman commander Ramezan Sharif said the blast, which
             Iran said was an accident, occurred as "ammunition was taken out
             of the depot and was being moved outside toward the appropriate
             site."

             Set up after the 1979 Islamic revolution to defend Iran, the
             Guards are in charge of the Islamic republic's missile
             programme, including Shahab-3 missiles with a range of 2,000
             kilometres (1,200 miles) capable of hitting Israel.

             Saturday's blast came amid international condemnation of Iran
             since the release of a new UN nuclear watchdog report accusing
             Tehran of working towards the development of nuclear warheads to
             fit inside its medium-range missiles.

             Israeli officials have in past weeks warned Iran of the
             possibility of military strikes against its nuclear sites.

             Ben West
             Tactical Analyst
             STRATFOR
             512-744-4300
             ext. 4340

             --

             Chris Farnham
             Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
             Australia Mobile: 0423372241
             Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
             www.stratfor.com

             --
             Sean Noonan
             Tactical Analyst
             STRATFOR
             T: +1 512-279-9479 | M: +1 512-758-5967
             www.STRATFOR.com

             --
             Sean Noonan
             Tactical Analyst
             STRATFOR
             T: +1 512-279-9479 | M: +1 512-758-5967
             www.STRATFOR.com

             --
             Sean Noonan
             Tactical Analyst
             STRATFOR
             T: +1 512-279-9479 | M: +1 512-758-5967
             www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 -
 Abe Selig
 Officer, Operations Center
 STRATFOR
 T: 512.279.9489 | M: 512.574.3846
 www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-14 15:40:05</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-26 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1034764_re-alpha-s3-g3-israel-iran-barak-hails-munitions-blast-in.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1035283</id>
    <title>Re: [Fwd: WikiLeaks Prosecution Faces Hurdles]
</title>
    <description>   This seems like a pretty good analysis.=A0 Certainly better than most of
   our own conjecture.= =A0

   "Given that Assange has run hundreds of thousands of classified documents
   on his web site, each one that is properly classified could be included as
   a separate count of an indictment."
   - I look forward to Manning and Assange facing a bajillion-thousand counts
   of espionage.=A0

   On 12/2/10 11:05 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

 =93The espionage laws, believe it or not, do not make =
 an exception for
 reporters,=94 Martin says. However, as a matter of policy, reporters and
 publishers have never been charged under espionage laws.



 Fred Burton wrote:

 -------- Original Message --------
 Subject:        WikiLeaks Prosecution Faces Hurdles
 Date:   Thu, 2 Dec 2010 12:00:46 -0500
 From:   KesslerRonald@gmail.com &lt;KesslerRonald@gmail.com&gt;
 Reply-To:       KesslerRonald@gmail.com
 To:     Ronald Kessler &lt;kesslerronald@gmail.com&gt;



     _WikiLeaks Prosecution Faces Hurdles_
     &lt;h=
 ttp://www.newsmax.com/RonaldKessler/WikiLeaks-Assange-espionage-EricHolder/=
 2010/12/02/id/378730&gt;


     Newsmax


   WikiLeaks Prosecution Faces Hurdles

 Thursday, December 2, 2010 11:43 AM

 *By: Ronald Kessler*

 WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange can be prosecuted in this country for
 espionage, but he may never be brought back to the United States to face
 the charges.

 That=92s the judgment of John L. Martin, arguably the country=92s foremost
 expert on the subject.

 For 25 years, Martin was in charge of espionage prosecutions by the
 Justice Department. By the time he retired in August 1997, Martin had
 supervised the prosecution of 76 spies. Only one of the prosecutions
 resulted in an acquittal.

 Attorney General Eric Holder Jr. has said the Justice Department has an
 =93active, ongoing criminal investigation=94 of Assange, who is in hiding,
 over his apparent release of classified documents.

 While Assange could be indicted, =93as long as he stays out of the United
 States, we don=92t have any jurisdiction over him,=94 Martin tells Newsmax.
 =93Moreover, because espionage is considered under international law to be
 a political offense, extradition treaties do not cover those accused of
 violating the espionage laws of any country.=94

 A major reason is that espionage laws could be applied to foreign
 intelligence officers who are under nonofficial cover and therefore have
 no diplomatic immunity from prosecution. In addition, a country such as
 Great Britain has an Official Secrets Act that would apply espionage
 laws to publishing material that other countries may not consider major
 breaches of security.

 As a result, countries are wary of supporting such laws by honoring
 extradition requests.

 =93You would never want to put your people in jeopardy by sending an
 intelligence officer without diplomatic immunity back to that country to
 face trial for violating its espionage laws,=94 says Martin, who was an
 FBI agent before becoming the country=92s chief spy prosecutor.

 So, while Assange could be charged by the United States, =93He would have
 to come into the United States voluntarily or by some ruse,=94 Martin says.

 However, aside from any treaties, Martin says a foreign country could
 decide to cooperate by putting him on a boat or airplane destined for
 this country under guard. That has happened in the past, Martin says.

 While Assange would argue that he is a journalist and therefore exempt
 from espionage laws, those laws actually have no exception for
 journalists, editors, or publishers, Martin says.

 =93The espionage laws, believe it or not, do not make an exception for
 reporters,=94 Martin says. However, as a matter of policy, reporters and
 publishers have never been charged under espionage laws.

 Martin says Assange could be charged under Section 793 of Title 18 of
 the U.S. Code, which prohibits unauthorized receipt, possession, or
 transmittal of classified documents, or under Section 798, which
 prohibits disclosure or publication of classified communications
 intelligence information.

 Given that Assange has run hundreds of thousands of classified documents
 on his web site, each one that is properly classified could be included
 as a separate count of an indictment. As a result, he could face a
 mounting prison term equivalent to a sentence of life in prison upon
 conviction, Martin says.

 The military arrested Private First Class Bradley Manning, suspected of
 being the source of the leaked documents, last May after WikiLeaks ran a
 video it had allegedly obtained from him. Taken by cameras on U.S.
 Apache helicopters, it shows several civilians, including two Reuters
 employees, being killed in a U.S. strike in Iraq in 2007.

 In an online chat, the Iraq-based intelligence analyst boasted about
 making available such classified material to the world.

 =93Since Manning did not transmit these documents to an agent of a foreign
 power, the more serious espionage offense that carries life imprisonment
 or death would not apply,=94 Martin says.

 However, =93The military will be looking to indict Manning on multiple
 counts of violating Section 793 of Title 18 of the U.S. Code by passing
 national security information to an unauthorized person,=94 Martin says.

 The government will have to establish that the documents it selects to
 be included in the prosecution =93related to the national defense, that
 they were protected information, and that the disclosure of these
 documents to unauthorized persons could damage national security,=94
 Martin says. =93You don't have to prove actual damage, only the
 possibility that it could cause damage.=94

 The fact that Manning will face a military court martial gives the
 government an advantage, Martin says.

 =93It=92s going to be a prosecution where classified documents are central
 to the government=92s case, and in that situation a military judge may
 close the courtroom to the public to take classified testimony or when
 the documents are introduced into evidence,=94 Martin says. =93You can=92t
 close a public trial in a civilian courtroom.=94

 Another advantage in a military case is that each time a soldier commits
 a violation, he can be charged with violating general orders, a separate
 crime.

 =93There's no such offense in civilian court,=94 Martin says.

 Since each properly classified document would represent a separate
 count, =93Manning would face the possibility of 100 years or more in
 prison,=94 Martin says. =93They could put him away for life if they do it
 right.=94


 *Ronald Kessler is chief Washington correspondent of Newsmax.com. View
 his previous reports and get his dispatches sent to you free via e-mail.
 Go here now &lt;http://newsmax.com/blogs/RonaldKessler/id-69&amp;=
 gt;.*



 =20=20

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-02 18:10:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1035283_re-fwd-wikileaks-prosecution-faces-hurdles-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sf@feldhauslaw.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1035582</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   yes, marc called them a mob - and that seems accurate

   On 10/24/11 1:33 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     Good point. 
     In terrorist terms they are more like grassroots people than AQ core. 
     From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
     Reply-To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2011 13:11:05 -0500
     To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
     Somehow we have to stop referring to 'anonymous' as a monolith.  They
     are a bunch of different people that essentially get together in an
     online-form of a mob to carry out some action. I'm not sure how to do
     this in writing consistently.  But let's start with shit like 'people
     joining Anonymous chatrooms and claiming to be part of the movement' or
     something like that. 

     Comments in green below.  This is coming together nicely. 

     On 10/24/11 11:19 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of
       these in the US?
        What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
       I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
       whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
       because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
       revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of
       understanding of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is
       expendable to cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of
       coercion.

       Anonymous does not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
       cartels.  mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of
       el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication
       as a tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable
       intelligence, the government will use it against the cartels. That's a
       physical threat, if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify
       that Anonymous can not directly effect physical security. Any impact
       to the cartel in revealing information will be from actions of rival
       cartels or the GoM. They may release information on a given politician
       being linked to the cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the
       politician will feel an impact (Just because Anonymous says there is a
       link, doesn't make it true). It would be up to others to take action. 
       I think the way you have it worded in the above sentence is good. 
       Follow with a sentence explaining the rest of it, because readers will
       have the same question Karen did.  Something like 'Rather, the threat
       to cartels would come in what information anonymous could expose that
       is useful to their enemies'

       Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online
       activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to
       conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't know how
       much, but we do know they will have some points of operational
       vulnerability I have heard of cartels doing business online, but don't
       have specific examples which could be used in assessing their
       vulnerability online.

       by "no consequences" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired,
       arrested or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I
       should say, there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out
       politicians as colluding.
       On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
         c: 512.750.7234
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
         Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
         possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
         Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by people using
         the banner of Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on
         cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
         find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual
         being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico
         and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual
         posting flyers ['critical of cartels'?] in Veracruz as part of the
         Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation. [this is
         good and will be enough information to go with, though you'll need a
         quick explanation of what 'operation paperstorm' is.  Adding
         something in the explaining the flyers will work]

         Link: themeData
         Anonymous, a decentralized hacker collective  famous for distributed
         denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government and corporate
         websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
         statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
         depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on
         October 10? With the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold
         threats towards the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as
         releasing identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
         journalists who collude with criminal cartels do they specify
         whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of these in the US?
          What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
         group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
         face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
         was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
         their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
         potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
         presents a unique threat towards TCOs [If TCO= transnational
         criminal organization, it's not really unique.  Many such
         organizations do their crimes online, and have been hacked in
         response--like the nigerian princess scams. I think you should just
         say it's a unique threat to DTOs] . We know of cartels lashing out
         at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels
         dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

         What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
              o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
         threat to Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a
         gun to the head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for
         the using publication as a tool to force government action. If you
         reveal actionable intelligence, the government will use it against
         the cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
              o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
         media
              o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out
         at cartels

         While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
         threat, if it had access to certain types of information:

                 -The threat is in the information they can expose that may
     be of use to any cartel enemies.  That could be to the government or
     other cartels or even local citizens (the last one may be a stretch, but
     i could imagine someone discrediting cartel members in the eyes of the
     public).

              o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims tocut possess
         identifiable information on cartel members 
              o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
         cartels [cut this part here, and make the point at the end of this
         section/paragraph]
              o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
         identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in
         the realm of possibilities for
                     Anonymous
                     o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
         illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels
         are known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We
         don't know how much, but we do know they will have some points of
         operational vulnerability

        -They claim to have information on those that collude with cartels 
     (use the stuff you have above].  Releasing such information could hurt
     cartels' support networks, but most of these people are also easily
     replaceable. 
                 -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents
     have access to, and doubt they have such information that provides any
     sort of existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 

         Most Anonymous hackers are likely far removed from the ultra-violent
         world of drug trafficking in Mexico, but it's quite possible that
         some of its members in this campaign are in Mexico and opposed to
         the violence [or something like that.  my limited understanding is
         there are still activist crusader-types in Mexico, yeah?  it seems
         very possible those with a bit of time or computer skills could have
         joined up with anonymous] . As a result, their understanding of
         cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous members in other
         countries may act with confidence when sitting in front of a
         computer, but this may blind them to any possible retribution. They
         may not even know the impact of any online assault of cartels.  [the
         part below and above is written rather normatively.  We need to take
         that out.  just state the facts]
              o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
         will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
         individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
         drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
         halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not have
         a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
         Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &amp;
         Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
         consequences from this. by "no consequences" what exactly do you
         mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and that happens all
         the time.
              o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
         are willing to go protect their operations.
                 o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                 o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
         community before, coercing computer science majors into working for
         them.
                 o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
         discovering hackers within Mexico.
         need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply
         publishing tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the
         same camp as the bloggers  [yes, i think it needs to be clear that
         their damage will be similar to what bloggers or wikileaks can
         do--limited.  But maybe more a danger to themselves, since they are
         no longer challenging governments, but criminal organizations]

          

         On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

           Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
           there are several issues to address and fix here.

           These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
           discussion:

                o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but
           we can't gloss over that fact
                o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference
           between stealing bank records from government computers and
           overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
           information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
           kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
           talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
           politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
           going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
           killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
           operational details, because they acted as informants, because
           they exposed links with officials or because they somehow sullied
           the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of information is
           damaging to the cartels themselves?
                o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
           realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure
           of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for
           the technical ability by a very small number of its members to
           infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal information.
           Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on a network that
           is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
           information be found? Government databases? Once we know what kind
           of information is accessible, we can also know more about the
           consequences of dissemination.
                o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
           back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings
           done by people who may not understand the difference between an
           anon hacker and a blogger.

           On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

             wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

             -------- Original Message --------

              Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                 Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                 From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
             Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                   To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

             you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a
             lot more work

             You need to lay out:

             a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section
             is unclear
             b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
             therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
             c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
             d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone
             who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

             I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
             insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
             levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
             the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
             is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
             business online, in a protected fashion.

             Karen Hooper
             Latin America Analyst
             o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
             c: 512.750.7234
             STRATFOR
             www.stratfor.com
             On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

             On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             Link: themeData

             Trigger

             Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
             Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed
             out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
             denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released
             depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a screen?
             exactly when?.  With the most recent video release, Anonymous
             makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels. Threats such as
             releasing identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
             politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels.
             The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped
             member otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
             between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
             unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly different
             operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
             Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
             believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
             not believe for a second that the cartels have no experience
             with hackers.

              

             In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned
             as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their
             demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned
             right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening
             to hit back. Provide enough details so we understand who this
             guy is and why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous'
             claims of possessing revealing information on cartel members and
             operations are true, cartels will likely respond with violence
             against individuals revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you
             mean Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public
             disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force the
             GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i
             don't understand what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten
             Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
             against Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will
             continue their threats against any individual using online media
             WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about
             bloggers here. against the cartels.

              

             The Battle Space

             Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
             realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
             of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
             geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
             exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
             are physical people tho live in the real world. They have names
             and addresses - although most of them are likely outside of MX.)
              Anonymous' power base consists of their technical capabilities
             in hacking. Any information connected to the Internet is
             vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of
             individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population
             could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
             has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big
             company with a website that brings in revenue, but it does not
             really matter if you don't run operations on the web. Los Z
             don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are also far less
             dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

             Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
             base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
             believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
             through the internet. This gives an opening for people
             disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
             dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll.
             Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
             themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of serious IT
             capability. 

             The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been
             from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

             The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
             Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
             maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
             commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
             and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight.
             There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar
             capacity.  Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue
             and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
             experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels are
             always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence.
             While battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law
             Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in
             the flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted media
             outlets. Murdering journalists and online bloggers in order to
             cover details of their operations. ok... but that's kind of a
             red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus on the
             possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
             have no cyber presence.

              

             Anonymous' Weapons

             Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
             criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
             combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
             disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
             anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites in
             Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
             admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
             guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
             campaign by technically elite individuals can not be overlooked
             should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream media
             outlets and social media blogs as such a threat to their
             operations, that they have continued to target journalists and
             bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was placed
             with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the body of a
             blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce cartels
             on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not
             really addressing the subheading

             As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
             risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest
             Anonymous is capable of possessing information they threaten to
             release. By releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
             Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
             individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
             information is limited by what is available via the Internet.
             Government computers connected to the Internet should always be
             considered a possibility of an attack. However, as with the
             compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer
             networks, information available to Mexico's intelligence
             collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to
             say here? This isn't clear at all

              

             Cartel's Defense

                         A counter response to the video? by the cartels has
             yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped
             member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the
             threat posed by hackers so... how has there not been a counter
             response? also this undermines your statements above about how
             Anonymous is soley internet based, and underlines the
             vulnerabilities of associated members. How did they find teh
             Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well give you
             some indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
             Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the
             cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed
             for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies
             dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and
             we have good intel indicating that) they are working on
             disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can
             operate in any region of the world. Personal information
             including locations is only available if a hacker chooses to
             divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
             figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous. Cartels
             are only capable of dealing with their online enemy, if they can
             physically reach out to them. Or start employing hackers of
             their own under their payroll? Stranger things have happened,
             Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                         Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
             Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
             help of computer science majors through personal threats has
             been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported where?. 
             Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence and drug
             trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of technical
             experts to help combat any threat by computer hackers.  While
             identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it
             is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
             operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies such
             as the FBi, with far more technical experience and resources
             than cartels, struggle to find hackers through investigations.
             A) How do you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they
             kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are
             equally difficult to track down

                         In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
             likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with,
             brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
             operations within Mexico "still"? why would we assume they
             wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
             communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
             members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
             likely continue to be used to scare online media into submission
             i'm not really seeing the online media-international hacking
             group connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
             inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
             encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of cartel
             violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to be
             seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of
             the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff
             and simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can
             inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 20:39:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1035582_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>colby.martin@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1035690</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   if anonymous outs taxi cab drivers working with Zeta, they are dead.  that
   is both simple and devastating.  If they release email accounts of GOM
   folks, and there are cartel members in that address book that would be
   devastating.  I think our definitions of devastating are different.  I
   agree the ability of these folks to bring down governments is minimal, but
   I am willing to bet the next deep throat scenario will come via a hacker
   and information they are able to steal. 

   On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already

     2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  The question is if the attack is high
     priority enough.  Many people assume there is no attribution because
     there is no response, but I don't think that is accurate. 
     has NSA told you otherwise?  i am unclear, are you saying the entire
     darknet is mapped, or could be mapped, only it isn't because the NSA
     doesn't care or doens't share? 
     3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new laptop and
     start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack involves much more than
     a recently bought laptop.  In the same way there is an attack cycle for
     a terrorist attack or crime, there is one for a cyber attack.  A very
     simple attack may be as hard to trace as a nearly-random mugging in the
     dark in a neighborhood with much more serious crime and no CCTV cameras.
     so simple=low damage, and complicated = more damage?  if you hacked
     Calderon's blackberry and found out who his contacts were, and one of
     them was Chapo's sister, it would be simple and devastating.  A more
     complicated attack, however, involves pre-operational surveillance,
     developing exploits, developing programs and code, gaining access,
     exploiting that, and carrying out an attack.  And that takes time,
     giving more time for your exposure. Look at everything that went into
     Stuxnet as a great example, that couldn't be done with one person with a
     new laptop.  All of this activity provides activity and evidence which
     helps for attribution.  Of course it is always possible to develop an
     attack, just like any other operation, that even the best law
     enforcement and national intelligence agencies have trouble or cannot
     attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that it's very difficult for
     someone to successfully use Anonymous as a cover and have NSA, GHQ, MID,
     Aman, etc, be unable to attribute it.  They may not choose to cover it
     if it is small scale crime, however. 
     On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored cyber
       warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing that, since
       you can conduct a cyber attack without associating with a hacker group
       and still deny / cover actions on behalf of the State. An individual
       attacking US computer assets from China, may be working by himself or
       on behalf of the Chinese government, but unless the US has other intel
       on the Chinese government's cyber warfare activities in order to
       corroborate there is little capability to distinguish.

       It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
       operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets from
       SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual responsible for
       hacking State run servers. In the past, I have turned to SIGINT
       organizations for collections on computer related material, but this
       was due to the US being behind in cyber warfare, and not knowing where
       to assign responsibility. However, this has changed dramatically in
       the last couple of years.

       Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As an
       extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go to a
       Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the online
       activity to something revealing (accessing personal email accounts,
       tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop, etc..), and
       begin hacking government email accounts then never use the laptop
       again. Unless LEA could get an accurate description of my appearance
       from Starbuck's patrons or possible security cameras, I can not think
       of way to identify me.

       Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to these
       enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied to specific
       computer-related activities because of the difficulty in identifying
       individuals.

       I think the most likely way for a "Anonymous cover" to be blown, would
       be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a common
       participant in "Anonymous" activities, was working for a State?
       Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that State agent
       organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter buddies, what signs
       could a LEA look for to distinguish?

       On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a bit)

         1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything actually
         harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't, but i'm very
         doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first real case where
         they could do some minor damage--to individual people, not not to an
         organization or anything that would come as a serious or strategic
         threat. 

         2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is actually
         pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as a cover, but
         that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could probably still be
         attributed if important enough to those agencies.  The recent attack
         on Sony actually brings this issue up- Whoever is calling themselves
         anonymous denies they did it.  And keep in mind how much they have
         claimed an publicized attacks in the past, even before they were
         carried out.  The attack on the Playstation Network was more
         sophisticated than anonymous' usual work (though potentially
         coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that distracted Sony's IT
         security).  But whoever did it, again, no real damage came of it. 
         Congress is holding hearings over data security, but this is no
         different than the OC groups stealing your credit card information. 
         LE will go after them, have some success, but the threat is not that
         large. 
         On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

           Link: themeData

           I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to have a
           broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no nothing, or
           almost nothing about what this group is and the threat it poses.
           Reviewing their list of attacks
           (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most of
           the cases, they are the "good" guys, sort of a Robin Hood of the
           internet . The interesting thing when it comes to their
           interactions with the cartels is the dubious role they play: at
           the same time they can be fighting crime by revealing cartel
           members/supporters, but they can also put lives in risk.

           However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
           Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can
           conduct a cyber attack under "Anonymous" is worrisome.
           (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

           If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
           websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to know
           more about these guys. Who they are? What are they interested in?
           How they operate? Who they have targeted so far? How can I defend
           myself from them? In what countries are they active? Should I
           worry about them at all? Can I use them to achieve any particular
           goal?

           On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

             nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else
             can build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they
             pose to innocent people caught up in the terror that is Mexico. 
             By focusing on journalists or taxi drivers they show little
             understanding of the situation.  This has long term implications
             in not just Mexico.  They don't consider the consequences of
             their actions and they act without understanding the
             environment.  It was the same when they released information on
             the Sony Playstation network to protest Sony.  They hurt
             innocent people to prove a point. 

             On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

               Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
               possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
               Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by
               Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on cartels
               as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
               find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the
               individual being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites
               (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it
               may be an individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the
               Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

               Link: themeData
               Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
               distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government
               websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
               statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a
               video depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug
               cartels on October 10? With the most recent video release,
               Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels in
               Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers,
               police, politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal
               cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow
               kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. In the
               Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
               day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands
               of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The potential of
               conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
               presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels
               lashing out at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any
               reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers
               before. 

               What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                    o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
               threat to Mexican cartels.
                    o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit
               online media
                    o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to
               lash out at cartels

               While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose
               a threat
                    o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
               identifiable information on cartel members
                    o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could
               acquire on cartels
                    o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
               communications, identifiable information on cartels members
               have to be considered in the realm of possibilities for
                           Anonymous
                           o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to
               reveal illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

               Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
               ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
               result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
               limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting in
               front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
               retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online
               assault of cartels.
                    o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
               journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some
               of these individuals are forced to collude with cartels.    
                         Taxi drivers are often victims of extortion or
               coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the identity of these
               individuals will not have a significant impact on cartel    
                             operations. Politicans have been accused of
               working with cartels (Guerrero &amp; Veracruz' governor) before,
               however there has yet to be any consequences from this.
                    o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent
               cartels are willing to go protect their operations.
                       o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                       o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
               community before, coercing computer science majors into
               working for them.
                       o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
               discovering hackers within Mexico.

                

               On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                 Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea
                 but there are several issues to address and fix here.

                 These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
                 discussion:

                      o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's
                 fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                      o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a
                 difference between stealing bank records from government
                 computers and overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                      o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
                 information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of
                 info is kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You
                 seem to be talking about identities, whose? If anything it's
                 dirty cops, politicians and businessmen who need to worry
                 about what anon is going to be saying. Think about why the
                 bloggers and media were killed in previous instances. Was it
                 because they revealed operational details, because they
                 acted as informants, because they exposed links with
                 officials or because they somehow sullied the cartel's
                 reputation? In short, what kind of information is damaging
                 to the cartels themselves?
                      o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon
                 can realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes
                 a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence
                 capacity except for the technical ability by a very small
                 number of its members to infiltrate certain networks and
                 databases and steal information. Now what kind of
                 information would a cartel keep on a network that is
                 connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else
                 could information be found? Government databases? Once we
                 know what kind of information is accessible, we can also
                 know more about the consequences of dissemination.
                      o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to
                 trace back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of
                 killings done by people who may not understand the
                 difference between an anon hacker and a blogger.

                 On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                   wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                   -------- Original Message --------

                    Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                       Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                       From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
                   Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                         To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

                   you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to
                   need a lot more work

                   You need to lay out:

                   a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger
                   section is unclear
                   b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is,
                   and therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
                   c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
                   anything
                   d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill
                   anyone who breaches their systems or exposes their
                   connections

                   I also just want to point out that we have reasonable
                   reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some
                   significant levels of sophistication in their online
                   presence, to include the use of cyber currencies and
                   significant IT capacity. There is no reason to assume that
                   Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
                   protected fashion.

                   Karen Hooper
                   Latin America Analyst
                   o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                   c: 512.750.7234
                   STRATFOR
                   www.stratfor.com
                   On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                   On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                   Link: themeData

                   Trigger

                   Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
                   Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?,
                   lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
                   statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including
                   a video released depicting...? a person talking? a voice?
                   words on a screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent
                   video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                   criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of
                   Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
                   journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker
                   group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member
                   otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
                   between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
                   unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly
                   different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a
                   conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have little
                   experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no
                   experience with the cartels. I do not believe for a second
                   that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                    

                   In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                   mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                   reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped member
                   this should be mentioned right up front. Cartels have a
                   member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back. Provide
                   enough details so we understand who this guy is and
                   why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims
                   of possessing revealing information on cartel members and
                   operations are true, cartels will likely respond with
                   violence against individuals revealed as opposing cartel
                   members huh? you mean Anonymous members?. It also is
                   likely that public disclosure of GOM officials who collude
                   with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving the
                   Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this
                   means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
                   effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against
                   Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will
                   continue their threats against any individual using online
                   media WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking
                   about bloggers here. against the cartels.

                    

                   The Battle Space

                   Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two
                   separate realities from each other. Anonymous operates
                   solely in sphere of the computer networks. Anonymous does
                   not experience geographical boundaries. All personalities
                   within Anonymous, exist solely in cyber space.  (That is
                   not entirely true. They are physical people tho live in
                   the real world. They have names and addresses - although
                   most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power
                   base consists of their technical capabilities in hacking.
                   Any information connected to the Internet is vulnerable to
                   exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of individual
                   cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population could
                   be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
                   has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or
                   a big company with a website that brings in revenue, but
                   it does not really matter if you don't run operations on
                   the web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They
                   are also far less dependent on the web than the
                   jihadists.)

                   Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's
                   power base consists of the perceived anonymity that its
                   members believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by
                   operating through the internet. This gives an opening for
                   people disgruntled by anything and everything to practice
                   general dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity +
                   audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web of
                   people who identify themselves as "anonymous" have any
                   sort of serious IT capability. 

                   The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has
                   been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

                   The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in
                   US and Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always
                   looking to maximize profits and expand. But they are
                   bricks and mortar commerce. Yes..... but they use the
                   internet to launder money and issue commands. We know that
                   Sinaloa does that from insight. There is no reason to
                   assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity. 
                   Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue and
                   escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
                   experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels
                   are always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel
                   violence. While battling each other, cartels still face
                   arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to
                   avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money,
                   cartels have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists
                   and online bloggers in order to cover details of their
                   operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this
                   discussion. You need to focus on the possible
                   vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
                   have no cyber presence.

                    

                   Anonymous' Weapons

                   Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions
                   against criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous'
                   only ability to combat cartels lay in information
                   operations, mainly disseminating sensitive information on
                   cartels and propagating anti-cartel statements via social
                   media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean so far and
                   that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
                   cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance of
                   a targeted information operations campaign by technically
                   elite individuals can not be overlooked should not be
                   underestimated. Cartels view main stream media outlets and
                   social media blogs as such a threat to their operations,
                   that they have continued to target journalists and
                   bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was
                   placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the
                   body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
                   denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive
                   here, and it's not really addressing the subheading

                   As stated earlier, any information connected to the
                   internet risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample
                   reason to suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing
                   information they threaten to release. By releasing
                   identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
                   cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
                   individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
                   information is limited by what is available via the
                   Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
                   should always be considered a possibility of an attack.
                   However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the US
                   governments computer networks, information available to
                   Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy to
                   acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This isn't
                   clear at all

                    

                   Cartel's Defense

                               A counter response to the video? by the
                   cartels has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous'
                   claims of a kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los
                   Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by hackers
                   so... how has there not been a counter response? also this
                   undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is
                   soley internet based, and underlines the vulnerabilities
                   of associated members. How did they find teh Anonymous
                   member? The answer to that could very well give you some
                   indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
                   Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web
                   , the cartels will face a number of challenges which
                   rarely are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG
                   has whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in
                   cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good intel
                   indicating that) they are working on disrupting the
                   cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in any
                   region of the world. Personal information including
                   locations is only available if a hacker chooses to divulge
                   it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
                   figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous.
                   Cartels are only capable of dealing with their online
                   enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
                   employing hackers of their own under their payroll?
                   Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                               Cartels have been known to coerce the services
                   of Mexican citizens with a technical background.
                   Recruiting the help of computer science majors through
                   personal threats has been reported in the past where? What
                   cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels operate in the
                   world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they will
                   likely need the assistance of technical experts to help
                   combat any threat by computer hackers.  While identifying
                   bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is
                   unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
                   operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies
                   such as the FBi, with far more technical experience and
                   resources than cartels, struggle to find hackers through
                   investigations. A) How do you know they are not in Mexico?
                   (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume
                   that not all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                               In order to compete with an online foe,
                   cartels will likely continue counter tactics they are most
                   familiar with, brute force. Cartels are still capable of
                   their HUMINT operations within Mexico "still"? why would
                   we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged
                   connections to hacker communities will likely be targeted
                   and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and
                   public display of violence will likely continue to be used
                   to scare online media into submission i'm not really
                   seeing the online media-international hacking group
                   connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
                   inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
                   encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
                   cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will
                   remain to be seen until cartels are able to seek out and
                   capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could
                   call the collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off
                   any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 22:29:35</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1035690_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>colby.martin@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1036081</id>
    <title>Re: Info - Wiki Founder
</title>
    <description>He needs to fall off a roof top. 

Lena Bell wrote:
&gt; this is a good feature piece The Age newspaper did back in May... a
&gt; lot of people were talking about it then because so little is known
&gt; about the man. Some of the more personal, historical background is
&gt; pasted below after URL. My personal opinion? I think he is very
&gt; intelligent but disenchanted and as journo writes:
&gt;
&gt; In another life, Assange might have been a mathematician. He spent
&gt; four years studying maths, mostly at Melbourne University - with
&gt; stints at the Australian National University in Canberra - but never
&gt; graduated, disenchanted, he says, with how many of his fellow students
&gt; were conducting research for the US defence system. 'There are key
&gt; cases which are just really f---ing obnoxious,'' he says.
&gt;
&gt; Assange isn't paid a salary by WikiLeaks. He has investments, which he
&gt; won't discuss. But during the 1990s he worked in computer security in
&gt; Australia and overseas, devised software programmes - in 1997 he
&gt; co-invented ''Rubberhose deniable encryption'', which he describes as
&gt; a cryptographic system made for human rights workers wanting to
&gt; protect sensitive data in the field - and also became a key figure in
&gt; the free software movement.
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; http://www.theage.com.au/technology/technology-news/the-secret-life-of-wikileaks-founder-julian-assange-20100521-w1um.html
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; The former teenage hacker from Melbourne, whose mystique as an
&gt; internet subversive, a resourceful loner with no fixed address,
&gt; travelling constantly between countries with laptop and backpack,
&gt; constitutes what you might call Assange's romantic appeal.
&gt;
&gt; But then there's the flip side: a man who believes in extreme
&gt; transparency, but evades and obfuscates when it comes to talking about
&gt; himself in the rare interviews that he gives. In the past, at least,
&gt; these have hardly ever been face to face.
&gt;
&gt; The secretiveness extends to those close to him. One woman who speaks
&gt; to me on the condition of total anonymity lived in the same share
&gt; house in Melbourne as Assange for a few months in early 2007, when
&gt; WikiLeaks was in its incubation period. The house was the hub, and it
&gt; was inhabited by computer geeks.
&gt;
&gt; There were beds everywhere, she says. There was even a bed in the
&gt; kitchen. This woman slept on a mattress in Assange's room, and says
&gt; she would sometimes wake up in the middle of the night to find him
&gt; still glued to his computer. He frequently forget to eat or sleep,
&gt; wrote mathematical formulas all over the walls and the doors, and used
&gt; only red light bulbs in his room - on the basis that early man, if
&gt; waking suddenly, would see only the gentle light of the campfire, and
&gt; fall asleep again. He also went through a period of frustration that
&gt; the human body has to be fed several times a day and experimented with
&gt; eating just one meal every two days, in order to be more efficient.
&gt; ''He was always extremely focused,'' she says.
&gt;
&gt; Assange first visited Sweden in the 1990s - and WikiLeaks is hosted on
&gt; a main server in Sweden, where the identities of confidential sources
&gt; are protected by law.
&gt;
&gt; This doesn't prove anything, of course - and WikiLeaks only moved its
&gt; main server to Sweden two years ago, after the Julius Baer Bank tried
&gt; to close down the website. Even so, I email Eva Gabrielsson, Larsson's
&gt; widow, to ask if the two of them ever met Assange - explaining that he
&gt; helped research a remarkable 1997 book, /Underground/, about the
&gt; exploits of an extraordinary group of young Melbourne hackers, written
&gt; by the Melbourne academic Suelette Dreyfus. The hackers all had
&gt; monikers in the book: Assange is said to be the character Mendax.
&gt; Assange convinced Dreyfus to release the book online, and according to
&gt; one source I spoke to, there was great interest in the book in Sweden
&gt; - and in China.
&gt;
&gt; ''About Julian Assange - well, why don't you ask him?'' Gabrielsson
&gt; emails back.
&gt;
&gt; It isn't the most urgent question I have for Assange, who I meet in
&gt; early May, the day after he slips back into Melbourne, his home town.
&gt; He arrived on a flight from Europe, via the US. Or so I understand
&gt; from the person acting as our inbetween.
&gt;
&gt; The same contact provides a Melbourne address, and instructions.
&gt; ''Don't call a cab, find one on the street; turn off your mobile phone
&gt; before you catch the cab and preferably, remove the batteries.''
&gt;
&gt; And here he is - a tall, thin, pale figure with that remarkable white
&gt; hair, looking very tired, and wearing creased, student-style dark
&gt; clothes and boots, and backpack.
&gt;
&gt; As we shake hands, he inclines his head slightly in a courtly, old
&gt; world manner, at odds with his youthful, student-traveller looks. When
&gt; I remark that there's a lot to ask him, he replies, ''That's all right
&gt; - I'm not going to answer half of it.''
&gt;
&gt; Is Assange his real name? Yes, he replies, then says it's the name in
&gt; his passport. ''What's in a name?'' he then adds mysteriously, casting
&gt; doubt on his first answer.
&gt;
&gt; At the time of writing, his passport status was apparently back to
&gt; normal after immigration officials at Melbourne Airport said that his
&gt; passport was going to be cancelled on the grounds that it was too tatty.
&gt;
&gt; It has been in a couple of rivers, Assange allows of the state of his
&gt; passport. The first time, as he recalls, in December 2006, when he was
&gt; crossing a swollen river during heavy rain in southern Tasmania, and
&gt; was swept out to sea. He swam back in. ''My conclusion from that
&gt; experience is that the universe doesn't give a damn about you, so it's
&gt; a good thing you do.''
&gt;
&gt; Why did he have his passport with him? He had everything he needed for
&gt; three weeks of survival, he replies. He needed his passport for ID
&gt; when he flew to Tasmania.
&gt;
&gt; Doesn't he have a driver's licence? ''No comment.''
&gt;
&gt; How true is the image of him as the enigmatic founder of WikiLeaks,
&gt; constantly on the move, with no real place to call home? Is this
&gt; really how he lives his life?
&gt;
&gt; ''Do I live my life as an enigmatic man?''
&gt;
&gt; No - is it true you're constantly on the move?
&gt;
&gt; ''Pretty much true.''
&gt;
&gt; Does he have one base he'd call home?
&gt;
&gt; ''I have four bases where I would go if I was sick, which is how I
&gt; think about where home is.''
&gt;
&gt; He has spent the best part of the past six months in Iceland, he says.
&gt; And the next six months? ''It depends on which area of the world I'm
&gt; needed most. We're an international organisation. We deal with
&gt; international problems,'' he replies.
&gt;
&gt; Assange mentions four bases, but names only two. The one in Iceland
&gt; and another in Kenya, where he has spent a lot of time, on and off, in
&gt; the past couple of years.
&gt;
&gt; The Kroll report, released on WikiLeaks, reportedly swung the Kenyan
&gt; presidential election in 2007.
&gt;
&gt; When he's in the country, Assange lives in a compound in Nairobi with
&gt; other foreigners, mainly members of NGOs such as Medecins Sans
&gt; Frontieres. He originally went to Kenya in 2007 to give a lecture on
&gt; WikiLeaks, when it was up and running. ''And ended up staying there,''
&gt; I suggest encouragingly.
&gt;
&gt; ''Mmmm.''
&gt;
&gt; As a result of liking the place or â€¦
&gt;
&gt; ''Well, it has got extraordinary opportunities for reforms. It had a
&gt; revolution in the 1970s. It has only been a democracy since 2004 â€¦ I
&gt; was introduced to senior people in journalism, in human rights very
&gt; quickly.''
&gt;
&gt; He has travelled to Siberia. Is there a third base there?
&gt;
&gt; ''No comment. I wish. The bear steak is good.''
&gt;
&gt; Why did he go to Georgia?
&gt;
&gt; ''How do you know about that?''
&gt;
&gt; I read it somewhere, I reply. It was a rumour. ''Ah, a rumour,'' he says.
&gt;
&gt; But he did go there? ''It's better that I don't comment on that,
&gt; because Georgia is not such a big place.''
&gt;
&gt; Living permanently in a state of exile, which can become addictive,
&gt; means that you always have the sharp eye of the outsider, I suggest.
&gt;
&gt; ''The sense of perspective that interaction with multiple cultures
&gt; gives you I find to be extremely valuable, because it allows you to
&gt; see the structure of a country with greater clarity, and gives you a
&gt; sense of mental independence,'' Assange replies.
&gt;
&gt; "You're not swept up in the trivialities of a nation. You can
&gt; concentrate on the serious matters. Australia is a bit of a political
&gt; wasteland. That's OK, as long as people recognise that. As long as
&gt; people recognise that Australia is a suburb of a country called
&gt; Anglo-Saxon.''
&gt;
&gt; Could he ever live in one place again? A brief silence. ''I don't
&gt; think so,'' he says finally.
&gt;
&gt; ''I don't see myself as a computer guru,'' he remarks at one point.
&gt; ''I live a broad intellectual life. I'm good at a lot of things,
&gt; except for spelling.''
&gt;
&gt; At one point, thinking about some of the material leaked on WikiLeaks,
&gt; I ask Assange how he defines national security. ''We don't,'' he says
&gt; crisply. "We're not interested in that. We're interested in justice.
&gt; We are a supranational organisation. So we're not interested in
&gt; national security.''
&gt;
&gt; How does he justify keeping his own life as private as possible,
&gt; considering that he believes in extreme transparency?
&gt;
&gt; ''I don't justify it,'' he says, with just a hint of mischievousness.
&gt; ''No one has sent us any official documents that were not published
&gt; previously on me. Should they do so, and they meet our editorial
&gt; criteria, we will publish them.''
&gt;
&gt; Assange isn't paid a salary by WikiLeaks. He has investments, which he
&gt; won't discuss. But during the 1990s he worked in computer security in
&gt; Australia and overseas, devised software programmes - in 1997 he
&gt; co-invented ''Rubberhose deniable encryption'', which he describes as
&gt; a cryptographic system made for human rights workers wanting to
&gt; protect sensitive data in the field - and also became a key figure in
&gt; the free software movement.
&gt;
&gt; The whole point of free software, he comments, is to ''liberate it in
&gt; all senses''. He adds: ''It' s part of the intellectual heritage of
&gt; man. True intellectual heritage can't be bound up in intellectual
&gt; property.''
&gt;
&gt; Did being arrested, and later on finding himself in a courtroom, push
&gt; him into a completely different reality that he had never thought
&gt; about - and eventually in a direction that eventually saw him start
&gt; thinking along the lines of a website like WikiLeaks, that would take
&gt; on the world?
&gt;
&gt; ''That [experience] showed me how the justice system and bureaucracy
&gt; worked, and did not work; what its abilities were and what its
&gt; limitations were,'' he replies. ''And justice wasn't something that
&gt; came out of the justice system. Justice was something that you bring
&gt; to the justice system. And if you're lucky, or skilled, and you're in
&gt; a country that isn't too corrupt, you can do that.''
&gt;
&gt; In another life, Assange might have been a mathematician. He spent
&gt; four years studying maths, mostly at Melbourne University - with
&gt; stints at the Australian National University in Canberra - but never
&gt; graduated, disenchanted, he says, with how many of his fellow students
&gt; were conducting research for the US defence system.
&gt;
&gt; ''There are key cases which are just really f---ing obnoxious,'' he says.
&gt;
&gt; According to Assange, the US Defence Advance Research Project Agency
&gt; was funding research which involved optimising the efficiency of a
&gt; military bulldozer called the Grizzly Plough, which was used in the
&gt; Iraqi desert during Operation Desert Storm during the 1991 Gulf War.
&gt;
&gt; ''It has a problem in that it gets damaged [from] the sand rolling up
&gt; in front. The application of this bulldozer is to move at 60
&gt; kilometres an hour, sweeping barbed wire and so on before it, and get
&gt; the sand and put it in the trenches where the [Iraqi] troops are, and
&gt; bury them all alive and then roll over the top. So that's what
&gt; Melbourne University's applied maths department was doing - studying
&gt; how to improve the efficiency of the Grizzly Plough.''
&gt;
&gt; Assange says he did a lot of soul-searching before he finally quit his
&gt; studies in 2007. He had already started working with other people on a
&gt; model of WikiLeaks by early 2006.
&gt;
&gt; There were people at the physics conference, he goes on, who were
&gt; career physicists, ''and there was just something about their attire,
&gt; and the way they moved their bodies, and of course the bags on their
&gt; backs didn't help much either. I couldn't respect them as men''.
&gt;
&gt; His university experience didn't define his cynicism, though. Assange
&gt; says that he's extremely cynical anyway. ''I painted every corner,
&gt; floor, wall and ceiling in the 'room' I was in, black, until there was
&gt; only one corner left. I mean intellectually,'' he adds. ''To me, it
&gt; was the forced move [in chess], when you have to do something or
&gt; you'll lose the game.''
&gt;
&gt; So WikiLeaks was his forced move?
&gt;
&gt; ''That's the way it feels to me, yes. There were no other options left
&gt; to me on the table.''
&gt;
&gt; WikiLeaks, he says, has released more classified documents than the
&gt; rest of the world press combined.
&gt;
&gt; ''That's not something I say as a way of saying how successful we are
&gt; - rather, that shows you the parlous state of the rest of the media.
&gt; How is it that a team of five people has managed to release to the
&gt; public more suppressed information, at that level, than the rest of
&gt; the world press combined? It's disgraceful.''
&gt;
&gt; Where does Assange see WikiLeaks in 10 years? "It's not what I want
&gt; the world to be. It's what I want the rest of the world to be," he
&gt; replies.
&gt;
&gt; He would like to see all media develop their own forms of WikiLeaks.
&gt; That would put his own website out of business, I point out.
&gt;
&gt; ''We have a proposal to [an American foundation] for a grant to just
&gt; that,'' he replies, explaining that WikiLeaks could create systems for
&gt; all media organisations.
&gt;
&gt; A thought: has he ever met Rupert Murdoch? ''No.''
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt; Lena - What is this dude's Aussie background?  He seems like a lunatic
&gt;&gt; or a left-winger?  Angry Aussie w/an axe to grind.  Belongs in Swedish
&gt;&gt; politics.
&gt;&gt; FBI is in bed w/the Aussies.  I'm sure we are listening in to every call
&gt;&gt; the jamoke is making.
&gt;&gt; Lena Bell wrote:
&gt;&gt;  
&gt;&gt;&gt; Not sure that's happening re Oz; federal police have opened up an
&gt;&gt;&gt; investigation to see whether or not any Australian criminal laws were
&gt;&gt;&gt; broken. - where did Nick get the insight about an agreed extradition -
&gt;&gt;&gt; there is nothing about this on OS and of course it would mean Assange
&gt;&gt;&gt; would have to come home first. Something he is very unlikely to do.
&gt;&gt;&gt; GovGen hasn't ruled out canceling his passport incidentally.
&gt;&gt;&gt; His mother has recently been interviewed by the ABC and she is scared
&gt;&gt;&gt; that he will be "hunted down and jailed"...  will make it difficult to
&gt;&gt;&gt; pursue the scenario painted below. Australians are likely to back him.
&gt;&gt;&gt; You wouldn't believe how much press/public sentiment david hicks
&gt;&gt;&gt; created in Guantanamo Bay. It really forced the Howard govt to change
&gt;&gt;&gt; tactics... esp when polling results overall were so poor.**
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Bayless Parsley wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;    
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; The main thing I was trying to ask about earlier was in regards to
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; the logistics of actually detaining the guy.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; I got the sense that Fred was saying US agents could physically do it
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; in another country. Perhaps I just misunderstood what he was trying
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; to say, because I find that really hard to believe (as rendition is
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; not an option in this case, which is why I brought up the fact that
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; some Republican congressmen are trying to call Assange a "terrorist"
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; now).
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Basic fact is that any move to arrest the guy (assuming they get an
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; indictment for him) would require that a friendly government do it
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; and then extradite him. Nick Miller told me the Australians have
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; already offered to do this, as Assange is an Australian citizen, and
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Australia is the Canada of the southern hemisphere when it comes to
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; its relations with the US.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Also, Karen had a very good point about the sex charges. Weren't
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; those dropped months ago after the initial allegations? What do ya
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; know, after the US explictly warned him time and again to stop
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; publishing the cables, it pops back up all of a sudden...
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On 12/1/10 12:36 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; can you charge them with anything if they paid for the information?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On Dec 1, 2010, at 12:35 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;        
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; You mean by helping Manning get the information off the networks?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Training, computer codes, flash drives, etc??  That's a good
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; point. On 12/1/10 12:31 PM, George Friedman wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;          
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; He might have facilitated or suborned the access. For example,
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; provided the means for distirbuting it.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; ------------------------------------------------------------------------
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; *From: *Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; *Date: *Wed, 1 Dec 2010 12:19:09 -0600 (CST)
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; *To: *Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; *ReplyTo: *Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; *Subject: *Re: Info - Wiki Founder
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; I think it's very difficult to indict him on anything though.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; MAYBE espionage, but even those laws are still too old.  I think
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; your FBI contact is right (sadly).  the US can really only get the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; person who did the leak, not who published it--George also pointed
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; this out over the weekend. What would the sealed indictment be for?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; (this is also why they will get him on some other charges in
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; another country....)
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On 12/1/10 12:15 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;            
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sealed indictment.  Hand the warrant over to the USMS to execute.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Happens everyday.  The USMS works w/their counterparts and lock
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; the dude
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; up.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Bayless Parsley wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; How would it work if the US wanted to catch such a high profile
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; target
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; like this? Despite what one Republican senator may have said the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; other
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; day (can't remember who, or if it was even a senator), he's not a
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; "terrorist," and so rendition..... wouldn't really be an option.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; But legally, you'd have to have the host government's
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; cooperation. Is
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; there any way aside from that scenario that could lead to his
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; arrest
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; on charges of breaking US laws?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On 12/1/10 12:12 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                           
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; &gt;From a very good contact @ the FBI --
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; How come you guys haven't picked this left-wing lunatic
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; WikiLeaks founder up on
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; some sort of trumped up charge? 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; 1st Amendment overprotects journalists.                  
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                   
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sean Noonan
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Tactical Analyst
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; www.stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sean Noonan
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Tactical Analyst
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; www.stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;           
&gt;
</description>
    <date>2010-12-01 21:46:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1036081_re-info-wiki-founder-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1037604</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Cryptic note from an Israeli diplomat on iran blasts
</title>
    <description>   Agree

   I raised this a few days ago.
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "George Friedman" &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2011 13:48:24 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Cryptic note from an Israeli diplomat on iran blasts
   Two answers. First if you see my own comment I have this from multiple non
   diplomatic sources. Second israel wants to telegraph this. They want it to
   be known that they did it in order to intimidate the iranians. That's why
   they authorize diplomats to talk.
   The question is whether they did it or are taking credit for the accident.
   My judgment based on conversations is that they did do it. They are making
   that very public but unofficial. The mystery is how they did it.
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2011 13:44:08 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Cryptic note from an Israeli diplomat on iran blasts
   I have a question on this.  Reva's original source for this is a diplomat.
    It seems to me that he or she would not have need to know, and therefore
   probably would not know what really happened operationally.  To me that
   seems to show a degree of political coordination to create a certain
   perception.  It looks to me like that is what is going on---the first peep
   about this was from Barak and then it went down the chain from there.  
   George, why do you think your sources are so confident on this missile
   base and were not on Stuxnet or the dead scientists, etc?  How is it not a
   question of timing and trying to figure out how to push harder in Iran?

   And please keep in mind that I think this was sabotage, I've been arguing
   this for months.  But I don't know, and I'm also very skeptical of such
   leaks and public claims. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "George Friedman" &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, November 14, 2011 10:28:36 PM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Cryptic note from an Israeli diplomat on iran blasts

   Slams should be slcm. Sorry.
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "George Friedman" &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;
   Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2011 04:24:52 +0000
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: friedman@att.blackberry.net
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Cryptic note from an Israeli diplomat on iran blasts
   Everything I'm hearing from israel is that they did it. Its not clear if
   it was spec ops or if it was slams but they are claiming it. The claims go
   too wide to be simply orchestrated. They are really gloating and my gut
   tells me its true this time. They are near dancing. Could be just crap but
   I am taking it seriously. The sources are good on this.
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla &lt;reva413@gmail.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 22:11:48 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: [alpha] Cryptic note from an Israeli diplomat on iran blasts
   Iran a** lovely smoke (and as we know , there is a fire behinda*|)

   Sent from my iPhone

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967
   www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-15 21:17:10</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1037604_re-alpha-cryptic-note-from-an-israeli-diplomat-on-iran.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1037771</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   I disagree that Anonymous doesn't matter, but I agree the point of
   Tristan's piece is what makes this interesting.  innocent people could
   die, and that sucks.

   On 10/25/11 9:57 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     No, I didn't say that. 

     Sometimes we write about things--the most obvious and comparable example
     being Wikileaks-- that don't matter and explaining why they don't
     matter.  Another example being some of the grassroots terrorists who
     have been picked up in the US,  say Mohamad Osman Mohamad (sp?) for
     example.  He didn't matter, but we can provide a very good and cogent
     explanation of the threats he did and did not offer that few others do
     (or maybe no one else).

     But I don't think we have the expertise to truly deal with Anonymous and
     I don't care to give them more press for not doing much.  Tristan's
     piece on the other hand gets at a new and developing issue in what they
     are trying to do.  It's an anomaly i think that is worth covering.  It
     is probably the first time we will see violence as a result of their
     activities. 

     On 10/25/11 9:35 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

       So, until Anonymous doesn't become a national threat we shouldn't
       write about it?

       On 10/24/11 8:17 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         There's enough information on what's behind the Aurora attacks to
         respond and shut them down. 

         Change everything I said about SIGINT to CNO combined with
         all-source analysis and maybe human investigations.  Same point
         applies. With the low-level shit, it's usually not investigated.

         As far as I'm concerned an attack that matters is something
         seriously affects a country's capabilities relative to others.  (in
         this, intelligence can seriously affect those abilities, as it
         allows for them to be countered or become less advtantageous,
         relatively)
          

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: "Tristan Reed" &lt;tristan.reed@stratfor.com&gt;
         To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
         Sent: Monday, October 24, 2011 7:33:59 PM
         Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels

         As far as Aurora, I haven't followed it closely. Did they ever
         identify the attackers or number of attackers? I thought the target
         set was the only thing that led people to believe the Chinese
         government was responsible.

         2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
         responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating
         cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case
         HUMINT is just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT
         capabilities does not indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers.
         NSA may have there own department for tracking hackers but it does
         not make it SIGINT.

         Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

         Wikipedia provides an indepth explanation on SIGINT . But in short,
         SIGINT is the capability in exploiting signals provided by
         communication devices, and what can be obtained by exploiting the
         signals. Combining computer network operations and SIGINT is
         innaccurate, because while SIGINT may be used with other
         intelligence disciplines in order to identify a hacker, it is not
         necessary and is no more related than any other intel discipline.
         SIGINT could help you identify a computer devices (not the operator)
         emitting a signal (wifi), and cryptanalysis, which is also separate
         from SIGINT but often used in conjunction, could help in providing
         methods to decrypt messages over a network, but SIGINT wouldn't
         obtain those messages.

         In order to exploit computer network operations, the operators
         involved are specifically trained in computer science disciplines
         and technologies tailored specifically for computer activity.

         NSA also is the primary agency for cryptanalysis. Because of
         technological demands of SIGINT and cryptanalysis, NSA has enormous
         resources in R&amp;D, so I can see why the USG would move some CNO to
         NSA. But their SIGINT capabilities are not indicators of CNO
         capabilities.

         Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary
         labor for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are
         discussing operations on the scale of causing physical damage to
         extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of a cyber
         attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not mattered. 
         You chose the most prolific example of a cyber attack (which the
         whole operation consisted mainly outside of the cyber attack
         itself). Anything that falls short of this doesn't matter? Define
         what matters. None of anonymous' attacks have physically damaged
         secret Iranian nuclear facilities, but I think you are downplaying
         too much the significance of exposing corporate secrets, halting
         businesses' revenues, and embarrassing State actors by defacing
         their websites.

         On 10/24/11 5:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           On 10/24/11 5:07 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

               1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already The USG
               arrested 10 Russian spies last year, are you willing to say
               foreign intel is not capable of conducting espionage
               undetected? No, of course not.  But I also would not argue
               that the SVR is so good to be immune to detection, as you are
               arguing with hackers.  I'm saying they are more detectable
               than you think.  There is no such thing as truly anonymous. 
               Everythign leaves a trail.  Will that trail in every instance
               lead to a single individual? no.  but it can lead to a place,
               an organization, and often, an individual. 

               2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
               responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to
               investigating cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to
               corroborate, in this case HUMINT is just as significant as
               SIGINT. A country's SIGINT capabilities does not indicate its
               capabilities in tracking hackers. NSA may have there own
               department for tracking hackers but it does not make it
               SIGINT.

               Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

               The question is if the attack is high priority enough.  Many
               people assume there is no attribution because there is no
               response, but I don't think that is accurate.  Many people say
               this, because no attribution is one reason for no response. 
               Yes, they do, and if they think that is the primary reason for
               lack of response, then I think they are wrong. 

               3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new
               laptop and start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack
               involves much more than a recently bought laptop.  In the same
               way there is an attack cycle for a terrorist attack or crime,
               there is one for a cyber attack.  A very simple attack may be
               as hard to trace as a nearly-random mugging in the dark in a
               neighborhood with much more serious crime and no CCTV
               cameras.  A more complicated attack, however, involves
               pre-operational surveillance, developing exploits, developing
               programs and code, gaining access, exploiting that, and
               carrying out an attack.  Discovering exploits and writing code
               can be done entirely offline, out of sight of law enforcement
               or intel agencies. Pre-operational surveillance and gaining
               access (the point of the exploit you write offline) would fit
               in my example. The point is, if you don't link your computer
               to identifiable information, you remain anonymous. Just like
               people use certain methods to build IEDs, people use certain
               mehtods to design programs and code for cyber attacks.  Over
               time, those methods become identifiable and more and more
               attributable. This is, for example, how AURORA is linked back
               to the Chinese.  and very specific Chinese, I may add. Being
               connected or unconnected doesn't matter, eventually you have
               to use what you develop, or copy from someone, and all of
               those things can be analyzed.   And that takes time, giving
               more time for your exposure Exposure comes from network
               activity with the target, a lot of the pre-operational phase
               of an attack can occur without network activity. Look at
               everything that went into Stuxnet as a great example, that
               couldn't be done with one person with a new laptop. Writing
               the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary labor
               for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are
               discussing operations on the scale of causing physical damage
               to extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of
               a cyber attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not
               mattered.   All of this activity provides activity and
               evidence which helps for attribution.  Of course it is always
               possible to develop an attack, just like any other operation,
               that even the best law enforcement and national intelligence
               agencies have trouble or cannot attribute.  That's fine.  My
               point is that it's very difficult for someone to successfully
               use Anonymous as a cover and have NSA, GHQ, MID, Aman, etc, be
               unable to attribute it.  How do you know if NSA or GHQ is
               effective in identifying hackers?I don't, but I'm confident
               they are far better than you are allowing for.    They may not
               choose to cover it if it is small scale crime, however. 
               On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                 I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state
                 sponsored cyber warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in
                 actually doing that, since you can conduct a cyber attack
                 without associating with a hacker group and still deny /
                 cover actions on behalf of the State. An individual
                 attacking US computer assets from China, may be working by
                 himself or on behalf of the Chinese government, but unless
                 the US has other intel on the Chinese government's cyber
                 warfare activities in order to corroborate there is little
                 capability to distinguish.

                 It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
                 operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT.
                 Assets from SIGINT would not directly help you track an
                 individual responsible for hacking State run servers. In the
                 past, I have turned to SIGINT organizations for collections
                 on computer related material, but this was due to the US
                 being behind in cyber warfare, and not knowing where to
                 assign responsibility. However, this has changed
                 dramatically in the last couple of years.

                 Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous.
                 As an extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in
                 cash, go to a Starbucks with free public wifi, and never
                 attribute the online activity to something revealing
                 (accessing personal email accounts, tweeting, entering
                 personal information to the laptop, etc..), and begin
                 hacking government email accounts then never use the laptop
                 again. Unless LEA could get an accurate description of my
                 appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible security
                 cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

                 Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer
                 to these enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities
                 tied to specific computer-related activities because of the
                 difficulty in identifying individuals.

                 I think the most likely way for a "Anonymous cover" to be
                 blown, would be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But
                 what if a common participant in "Anonymous" activities, was
                 working for a State? Anonymous has denounced state
                 governments before, if that State agent organizes an attack
                 amongst his IRC / Twitter buddies, what signs could a LEA
                 look for to distinguish?

                 On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                   In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming
                   in a bit)

                   1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything
                   actually harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they
                   can't, but i'm very doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows
                   the first real case where they could do some minor
                   damage--to individual people, not not to an organization
                   or anything that would come as a serious or strategic
                   threat. 

                   2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is
                   actually pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous'
                   as a cover, but that would be pretty easy to bungle, and
                   could probably still be attributed if important enough to
                   those agencies.  The recent attack on Sony actually brings
                   this issue up- Whoever is calling themselves anonymous
                   denies they did it.  And keep in mind how much they have
                   claimed an publicized attacks in the past, even before
                   they were carried out.  The attack on the Playstation
                   Network was more sophisticated than anonymous' usual work
                   (though potentially coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS
                   attacks that distracted Sony's IT security).  But whoever
                   did it, again, no real damage came of it.  Congress is
                   holding hearings over data security, but this is no
                   different than the OC groups stealing your credit card
                   information.  LE will go after them, have some success,
                   but the threat is not that large. 
                   On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

                     I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity
                     to have a broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our
                     readers no nothing, or almost nothing about what this
                     group is and the threat it poses. Reviewing their list
                     of attacks
                     (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in
                     most of the cases, they are the "good" guys, sort of a
                     Robin Hood of the internet . The interesting thing when
                     it comes to their interactions with the cartels is the
                     dubious role they play: at the same time they can be
                     fighting crime by revealing cartel members/supporters,
                     but they can also put lives in risk.

                     However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed
                     by Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on
                     Earth, can conduct a cyber attack under "Anonymous" is
                     worrisome.
                     (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

                     If I run an organization, if I am responsible for
                     government websites, or if I am just a internet user, I
                     would like to know more about these guys. Who they are?
                     What are they interested in? How they operate? Who they
                     have targeted so far? How can I defend myself from them?
                     In what countries are they active? Should I worry about
                     them at all? Can I use them to achieve any particular
                     goal?

                     On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                       nice.  i still think the central focus, and what
                       everything else can build off of, is that Anonymous
                       doesn't know the threat they pose to innocent people
                       caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing
                       on journalists or taxi drivers they show little
                       understanding of the situation.  This has long term
                       implications in not just Mexico.  They don't consider
                       the consequences of their actions and they act without
                       understanding the environment.  It was the same when
                       they released information on the Sony Playstation
                       network to protest Sony.  They hurt innocent people to
                       prove a point. 

                       On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                         Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of
                         discussing possible cartel responses, the focus is
                         on what type of threat Anonymous can pose to
                         cartels. The video released by Anonymous, threatens
                         revealing personal information on cartels as well as
                         states a member had been kidnapped. I could not find
                         any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the
                         individual being kidnapped. According to their
                         facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous
                         Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual
                         posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the Operation
                         Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

                         Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
                         distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on
                         government websites, lashed out at drug cartels via
                         the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
                         criminal cartels, including a video depicting a
                         masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on
                         October 10? With the most recent video release,
                         Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal
                         cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing
                         identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
                         journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The
                         hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow
                         kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. In the
                         Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                         mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                         reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped
                         member are not met. The potential of conflict
                         between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
                         presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of
                         cartels lashing out at online bloggers, but I
                         haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing with
                         any headaches from hackers before. 

                         What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                              o     Anonymous would not pose a direct
                         physical security threat to Mexican cartels.
                              o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to
                         exploit online media
                              o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in
                         Mexico to lash out at cartels

                         While not certain, there is a potential for
                         Anonymous to pose a threat
                              o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to
                         possess identifiable information on cartel members
                              o     It is unknown what information Anonymous
                         could acquire on cartels
                              o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
                         communications, identifiable information on cartels
                         members have to be considered in the realm of
                         possibilities for
                                     Anonymous
                                     o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's
                         ability to reveal illicit online activity (child
                         pornography rings)

                         Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in
                         the ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in
                         Mexico. As a result, their understanding of cartel
                         activities may be limited. Anonymous may act with
                         confidence when sitting in front of a computer, but
                         this may blind them to any possible retribution.
                         They may not even know the impact of any online
                         assault of cartels.
                              o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
                         journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not
                         understand some of these individuals are forced to
                         collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are
                         often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
                         halcones. Revealing the identity of these
                         individuals will not have a significant impact on
                         cartel                   operations. Politicans have
                         been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &amp;
                         Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to
                         be any consequences from this.
                              o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the
                         extent cartels are willing to go protect their
                         operations.
                                 o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                                 o    Cartels have reached out to the
                         computer science community before, coercing computer
                         science majors into working for them.
                                 o    This provides the cartels with the
                         possibility of discovering hackers within Mexico.

                          

                         On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                           Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like
                           the idea but there are several issues to address
                           and fix here.

                           These are the bullets of my main analytical
                           concern with the discussion:

                                o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why.
                           that's fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                                o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a
                           difference between stealing bank records from
                           government computers and overloading
                           www.loszetas.com main page.
                                o     There's no thought out process of what
                           sort of information could anon have on the
                           cartels. What kind of info is kept online and
                           accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
                           talking about identities, whose? If anything it's
                           dirty cops, politicians and businessmen who need
                           to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
                           Think about why the bloggers and media were killed
                           in previous instances. Was it because they
                           revealed operational details, because they acted
                           as informants, because they exposed links with
                           officials or because they somehow sullied the
                           cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
                           information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                                o     Once you identify this info - think
                           about if anon can realistically access it and
                           disseminate it so it causes a measure of damage.
                           Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except
                           for the technical ability by a very small number
                           of its members to infiltrate certain networks and
                           databases and steal information. Now what kind of
                           information would a cartel keep on a network that
                           is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)?
                           Where else could information be found? Government
                           databases? Once we know what kind of information
                           is accessible, we can also know more about the
                           consequences of dissemination.
                                o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel?
                           Sufficient to trace back attacks? If it's not,
                           there risks to be a lot of killings done by people
                           who may not understand the difference between an
                           anon hacker and a blogger.

                           On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                             wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                             -------- Original Message --------

                              Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs     
                                       Cartels                                
                                 Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500        
                                 From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;     
                             Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;               
                                   To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;               

                             you've got some of the issues here, but this is
                             going to need a lot more work

                             You need to lay out:

                             a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your
                             trigger section is unclear
                             b) what our assessment of the online cartel
                             presence is, and therefore their vulnerabilities
                             and capabilities
                             c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high
                             security anything
                             d) how far the cartels would be willing to
                             travel to kill anyone who breaches their systems
                             or exposes their connections

                             I also just want to point out that we have
                             reasonable reliable insight that Sinaloa at the
                             very least has some significant levels of
                             sophistication in their online presence, to
                             include the use of cyber currencies and
                             significant IT capacity. There is no reason to
                             assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
                             business online, in a protected fashion.

                             Karen Hooper
                             Latin America Analyst
                             o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                             c: 512.750.7234
                             STRATFOR
                             www.stratfor.com
                             On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                             On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-10-25 17:35:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1037771_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>colby.martin@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1038271</id>
    <title>Re: Counterterrorism: Shifting from the Who to the How
</title>
    <description>   Great piece, one small question.  
   On Nov 3, 2009, at 2:06 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     A joint Stick/Fred production.
      
     We know what we are talking about, and this makes sense to us - but
     please make sure that we have explained this in terms that can be
     understood by someone other than Fred and me.
      
      
     &lt;atta9339.jpg&gt;
     The Who
      
      
     &lt;Outlook.jpg&gt;
     The How
      
      
     Counterterrorism: Shifting from the Who to the How
      
     In the eleventh edition of the online magazine [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/yemen_al_qaedas_resurgence ] Sada
     al-Malahim (The Echo of Battle) which was released to jihadist Web sites
     last week, the leader of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) [ link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090128_al_qaeda_arabian_peninsula_desperation_or_new_life
     ] Nasir al-Wuhayshi, wrote an article in which he called for jihadists
     to conduct simple attacks against a variety of targets. The targets he
     mentioned included *any tyrant, intelligence den, prince,* or *minister*
     (referring to the governments in the Muslim world like Egypt, Saudi
     Arabia and Yemen), and *any crusaders whenever you find one of them,
     like at the airports of the crusader western countries that participate
     in the wars against Muslim, or their living compounds, trains etc.*
     (obviously referring to the U.S. and Europe.)
      
     Al-Wuhayshi, an ethnic Yemeni who spent time in Afghanistan serving as a
     lieutenant under Osama Bin Laden, noted these simple attacks could be
     conducted using readily available weapons, such as knives, clubs or
     small improvised explosive devices (IEDs). According to al-Wuhayshi,
     jihadists *don*t need to conduct a big effort or spend a lot of money to
     manufacture 10 grams of explosive material more or less* and that they
     should not *waste a long time finding the materials, because you can
     find all these in your mother*s kitchen, or at your hand or in any city
     you are in.* 
      
     The fact that these instructions were given by al-Wuhayshi in an
     internet magazine distributed via jihadist chat rooms and not some
     secret meeting with his operational staff demonstrates that they are
     clearly intended to reach [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090805_paying_attention_grassroots ]
     grassroots jihadists * and are not intended just as internal guidance
     for AQAP members. Al- Wuhayshi was encouraging grassroots jihadists to
     *do what Abu al-Khair did* referring to [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090902_aqap_paradigm_shifts_and_lessons_learned 
     ] AQAP member Abdullah Hassan Taleh al-Asiri, the Saudi suicide bomber
     who attempted to kill Saudi Deputy Interior Minister Prince Mohammed bin
     Nayef with a small IED on August 28, 2009.
      
     The most concerning aspect of al-Wuhayshi*s statement is that it is
     largely true. Improvised explosive mixtures are relatively easy to make
     from readily available chemicals -- if a person has the proper training
     -- and attacks using small IEDs or other readily attainable weapons such
     as knives or clubs [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090603_lone_wolf_lessons ] (or firearms
     in the U.S.) are indeed quite simple to conduct.
      
     As STRATFOR has [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/al_qaeda_2007_continuing_devolution ] noted for
     several years now, with al Qaeda's structure under continual attack and
     no regional al Qaeda franchise groups in the Western Hemisphere, the
     most pressing jihadist threat to the U.S. homeland at present stems from
     grassroots jihadists and not the al Qaeda core. This trend has been
     borne out by the large number of plots and arrests over the past several
     years, to include several so far in 2009. The grassroots have likewise
     proven to pose a critical threat to Europe.
      
     From a counterterrorism perspective, the problem posed by grassroots
     operatives is that unless they somehow self-identify [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090521_u_s_foiled_plot_and_very_real_grassroots_risk
     ] by contacting a government informant or other person who reports them
     to authorities, or they [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20091021_curious_case_adlene_hicheur ]
     conduct electronic correspondence with a person or organization under
     government scrutiny, they are very difficult to detect.
      
     The threat posed by grassroots operatives, and the difficulty
     identifying them, highlight the need for counterterrorism programs to
     adopt a proactive, protective intelligence approach to the problem -- an
     approach that focuses on *the how* of militant attacks instead of just
     *the who*.
      
     The How
      
     In the traditional, reactive, approach to counterterrorism, where
     authorities respond to a crime scene after a terrorist attack in order
     to find and arrest the militants responsible for the attack, it is
     customary to focus on *the who* behind the attack. Indeed, in this
     traditional approach, the only time much emphasis is placed on *the how*
     is either in an effort to identify a suspect when the attack was
     conducted by an unknown actor, or to prove that a particular suspect was
     responsible for the attack during a trial. Beyond these limited
     purposes, not much attention is paid to *the how.*
      
     Now, catching and prosecuting those who commit terrorist attacks is a
     good thing, but from our perspective what is even more important is
     preventing the attack in the first place, and prevention requires a
     proactive approach.  In order to pursue such a proactive approach to
     counterterrorism, *the how* becomes the critical question. By studying
     and understanding how attacks are conducted, authorities can then
     establish systems to proactively identify early indicators that attack
     planning is occurring. People involved in that attack planning can then
     be focused on, identified, and action can be taken prevent them from
     conducting the attack(s) they are plotting. This means that focusing on
     *the how* can lead to previously unidentified suspects * those who do
     not self-identify.
      
     How is the primary question addressed by [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/proactive_tool_protective_intelligence
      ] protective intelligence, which is, at its core, a process for
     proactively identifying and assessing potential threats.  Focusing on
     *the how* then, requires protective intelligence practitioners to
     carefully study the tactics, tradecraft and behavior associated with
     militant actors involved in terrorist attacks in order to search for and
     identify those behaviors before an attack takes place. Many of these
     behaviors are not by themselves criminal in nature, visiting a public
     building and observing the security measures or standing on the street
     to watch the arrival of a VIP at her office are not illegal, but they
     can be indicators that an attack is being plotted, and in the grand
     scheme of things those legal activities could turn out to be overt
     actions in furtherance of an illegal conspiracy to conduct the attack *
     but even in a case where a conspiracy cannot be proves, steps can be
     still taken to prevent a potential attack and to mitigate the risk posed
     by the people involved.  
      
     Protective intelligence is based on the fact that attacks don*t just
     happen out of the blue. Rather, every terrorist attack follows a [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/themes/terrorist_attack_cycle ] discernable
     attack cycle, and there are critical points in that cycle where a plot
     is most likely to be detected by an outside observer and the critical
     activity that happens at these points can then be looked for. Among the
     most vulnerable times of in the attack cycle are while surveillance is
     being conducted and weapons are being acquired, but there are other,
     less obvious points where such activity can be spotted by someone who is
     looking for it.
      
     In order to really understand *the how*, protective intelligence
     practitioners cannot just simply acknowledge that something like
     surveillance occurs. Rather they must turn a powerful lens on topics
     like pre-operational surveillance in order to study them at a granular
     level so that it can be studied and fully understood.  Dissecting an
     activity like [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/themes/surveillance_and_countersurveillance ]
     preoperational surveillance requires not only examining subjects such as
     the demeanor demonstrated by those conducting surveillance prior to an
     attack and the specific methods [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/physical_surveillance_art_blending ] and cover
     for action and cover for status utilized, but identifying certain times
     where surveillance is most likely to happen and certain optimal vantage
     points (called perches in surveillance jargon) where a surveillant is
     most likely to operate from, if he is seeking to surveil a specific
     facility or event.  This type of complex understanding of the topic of
     surveillance can then be used to help focus human or technological
     countersurveillance efforts to where they can be most effective.
      
     Unfortunately, many counterterrorism investigators are so focused on
     *the who* that they do not focus on collecting this type of granular
     *how* information. We have talked to law enforcement officers
     responsible for investigating some recent grassroots plots, and when
     asked to describe specifically how the suspects had conducted
     surveillance on the intended targets, we were met with blank stares.
     They simply had not paid attention to this type of detail. But this is
     not really the fault of these investigators. Nobody had ever explained
     to them why paying attention to and recording this type of detail was
     important. Additionally, it takes specific training and a practiced eye
     to pick out these details without glossing over them. For example, one
     must first conduct a lot of surveillance in order to become a first-rate
     countersurveillance officer. The experience of conducting surveillance
     allows you to understand what a surveillant must do and where he must be
     in order to conduct surveillance of a specific person or place.
      
     Similarly, in order to truly understand the tradecraft required to build
     an IED and the specific steps that a militant needs to complete in order
     to do so, it helps to go to an IED school where the investigator learns
     the tradecraft firsthand. Militant actors can and do change over time.
     New groups, causes and ideologies emerge, and specific militants can be
     killed, captured or retire. But the tactical steps that a militant must
     complete in order to conduct an attack are constant. It doesn*t matter
     if the person planning an attack is a radical environmentalist, a
     grassroots jihadist or a member of the al Qaeda core, while these
     diverse actors will exhibit different levels of professionalism in
     regard to terrorist tradecraft, they still must follow essentially the
     same steps, accomplish the same tasks and operate in the same areas. 
     Knowing this allows protective intelligence to guard against different
     levels of threats.  
      
     Of course tactics can be change and be perfected and new tactics can be
     developed -- and technology can emerge (like cell phones and Google
     earth) -- which can alter the way in which some of these activities are
     conducted, or the time it takes to do so. However possessing a profound
     knowledge of the tradecraft and behaviors needed to execute the tactics
     allows protective intelligence practitioners to respond to such changes
     and even alter how they operate. Technology can also help the protective
     intelligence forces in their mission. There are tools such as Trapwire
     (what is trapwire? a quick phrase would help a reader who's not in the
     know) that can be focused on critical areas and that can help law
     enforcement and security forces cut through the fog of noise and
     activity to help identify things like hostile surveillance occurring in
     those critical areas identified by protective intelligence. These
     technological tools can help turn the tables on the unknown *who* by
     focusing on *the how*. They will likely never replace human observation
     and experience, but they are valuable aids to human perception.
      
     Of course protective intelligence does not have to be the sole
     providence of the authorities. Corporate security managers and private
     security contractors can also apply the principles to protecting the
     people and facilities in their charge.
      
     Keeping it Simple?
      
     Al-Wuhayshi is right that it is not difficult to construct improvised
     explosives from a wide range of household chemicals such as peroxide and
     acetone or chlorine and brake fluid. He is also correct that some of
     those explosive mixtures can be concealed in objects ranging from
     electronic items to picture frames or can be employed in forms ranging
     from hand grenades to suicide vests. Likewise, low-level attacks can
     also be conducted using knives, clubs and guns.
      
     However -- and this is an important however -- if a militant is going to
     conduct such an attack against some of the targets al-Wuhayshi suggests,
     such as an airports, a train, or a specific leader or media personality,
     complexity creeps into the picture, and the attack planning cycle must
     be followed. The prospective attacker must observe and quantify the
     target, construct a plan to attack it and then execute that plan. It is
     the demands of conducting this process that will cause even an attacker
     previously unknown to the authorities to place himself in a position
     where he is vulnerable to being identified. If the attacker does this
     while there are people watching for him, he will likely be seen. If he
     does this while there are no watchers, there is little chance that he
     will become a *who* until after the attack has been completed. 
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
     Scott Stewart
     STRATFOR
     Office: 814 967 4046
     Cell: 814 573 8297
     scott.stewart@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com
      

   Mike Jeffers
   STRATFOR
   Austin, Texas
   Tel: 1-512-744-4077
   Mobile: 1-512-934-0636
</description>
    <date>2009-11-03 23:05:17</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1038271_re-counterterrorism-shifting-from-the-who-to-the-how-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.jeffers@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1038803</id>
    <title>Re: Counterterrorism: Shifting from the Who to the How
</title>
    <description>   scott stewart wrote:

     A joint Stick/Fred production.
      
     We know what we are talking about, and this makes sense to us - but
     please make sure that we have explained this in terms that can be
     understood by someone other than Fred and me.
      
      

     The Who

      

      

     The How

      
      

     Counterterrorism: Shifting from the Who to the How

      

     In the eleventh edition of the online magazine [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/yemen_al_qaedas_resurgence ] Sada
     al-Malahim (The Echo of Battle) which was released to jihadist Web sites
     last week, the leader of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) [ link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090128_al_qaeda_arabian_peninsula_desperation_or_new_life
     ] Nasir al-Wuhayshi, wrote an article in which he called for jihadists
     to conduct simple attacks against a variety of targets. The targets he
     mentioned included "any tyrant, intelligence den, prince," or "minister"
     (referring to the governments in the Muslim world like Egypt, Saudi
     Arabia and Yemen), and "any crusaders whenever you find one of them,
     like at the airports of the crusader western countries that participate
     in the wars against Muslim, or their living compounds, trains etc."
     (obviously referring to the U.S. and Europe.)

      

     Al-Wuhayshi, an ethnic Yemeni who spent time in Afghanistan serving as a
     lieutenant under Osama Bin Laden, noted these simple attacks could be
     conducted using readily available weapons, such as knives, clubs or
     small improvised explosive devices (IEDs). According to al-Wuhayshi,
     jihadists "don't need to conduct a big effort or spend a lot of money to
     manufacture 10 grams of explosive material more or less" and that they
     should not "waste a long time finding the materials, because you can
     find all these in your mother's kitchen, or at your hand or in any city
     you are in." 

      

     The fact that these instructions were given by al-Wuhayshi in an
     internet magazine distributed via jihadist chat rooms and not some
     secret meeting with his operational staff demonstrates that they are
     clearly intended to reach [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090805_paying_attention_grassroots ]
     grassroots jihadists - and are not intended just as internal guidance
     for AQAP members. Al- Wuhayshi was encouraging grassroots jihadists to
     "do what Abu al-Khair did" referring to [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090902_aqap_paradigm_shifts_and_lessons_learned 
     ] AQAP member Abdullah Hassan Taleh al-Asiri, the Saudi suicide bomber
     who attempted to kill Saudi Deputy Interior Minister Prince Mohammed bin
     Nayef with a small IED on August 28, 2009.

      

     The most concerning aspect of al-Wuhayshi's statement is that it is
     largely true. Improvised explosive mixtures are relatively easy to make
     from readily available chemicals -- if a person has the proper training
     -- and attacks using small IEDs or other readily attainable weapons such
     as knives or clubs [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090603_lone_wolf_lessons ] (or firearms
     in the U.S.) are indeed quite simple to conduct.

      

     As STRATFOR has [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/al_qaeda_2007_continuing_devolution ] noted for
     several years now, with al Qaeda's structure under continual attack and
     no regional al Qaeda franchise groups in the Western Hemisphere, the
     most pressing jihadist threat to the U.S. homeland at present stems from
     grassroots jihadists and not the al Qaeda core. This trend has been
     borne out by the large number of plots and arrests over the past several
     years, to include several so far in 2009. The grassroots have likewise
     proven to pose a critical threat to Europe.

      

     From a counterterrorism perspective, the problem posed by grassroots
     operatives is that unless they somehow self-identify [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090521_u_s_foiled_plot_and_very_real_grassroots_risk
     ] by contacting a government informant or other person who reports them
     to authorities, or they [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20091021_curious_case_adlene_hicheur ]
     conduct electronic correspondence with a person or organization under
     government scrutiny, they are very difficult to detect. If and when the
     paradigm shifts so that grass-roots jihadists begin to plan and carry
     out violent acts against soft and small targets strictly alone without
     inadvertently betraying their mission when conspiring with other people,
     then it will be vastly more difficult to detect and thwart these plots.
     The Arkansas National Guard shooter acted alone and was successful, as I
     remember.
      

     The threat posed by grassroots operatives, and the difficulty
     identifying them, highlight the need for counterterrorism programs to
     adopt a proactive, protective intelligence approach to the problem -- an
     approach that focuses on "the how" of militant attacks instead of just
     "the who".

      

     The How

      

     In the traditional, reactive, approach to counterterrorism, where
     authorities respond to a crime scene after a terrorist attack in order
     to find and arrest the militants responsible for the attack, it is
     customary to focus on "the who" behind the attack. Indeed, in this
     traditional approach, the only time much emphasis is placed on "the how"
     is either in an effort to identify a suspect when the attack was
     conducted by an unknown actor, or to prove that a particular suspect was
     responsible for the attack during a trial. Beyond these limited
     purposes, not much attention is paid to "the how."

      

     Now, catching and prosecuting those who commit terrorist attacks is a
     good thing, but from our perspective what is even more important is
     preventing the attack in the first place, and prevention requires a
     proactive approach.  In order to pursue such a proactive approach to
     counterterrorism, "the how" becomes the critical question. By studying
     and understanding how attacks are conducted, authorities can then
     establish systems to proactively identify early indicators that attack
     planning is occurring. People involved in that attack planning can then
     be focused on, and identified, and action can be taken to prevent them
     from conducting the attack(s) they are plotting. This means that
     focusing on "the how" can lead to previously unidentified suspects -
     those who do not self-identify.

      

     How is the primary question addressed by [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/proactive_tool_protective_intelligence

      ] protective intelligence, which is, at its core, a process for
     proactively identifying and assessing potential threats.  Focusing on
     "the how" then, requires protective intelligence practitioners to
     carefully study the tactics, tradecraft and behavior associated with
     militant actors involved in terrorist attacks in order to search for and
     identify those behaviors before an attack takes place. Many of these
     behaviors are not by themselves criminal in nature, visiting a public
     building and observing the security measures or standing on the street
     to watch the arrival of a VIP at her office are not illegal, but they
     can be indicators that an attack is being plotted, and in the grand
     scheme of things those legal activities could turn out to be overt
     actions in furtherance of an illegal conspiracy to conduct the attack -
     but even in a case where a conspiracy cannot be provens, steps can be
     still taken to prevent a potential attack and to mitigate the risk posed
     by the people involved.  

      

     Protective intelligence is based on the fact that attacks don't just
     happen out of the blue. Rather, every terrorist attack follows a [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/themes/terrorist_attack_cycle ] discernable
     attack cycle, and there are critical points in that cycle where a plot
     is most likely to be detected by an outside observer and the critical
     activity that happens at these points can then be looked for. Among the
     most vulnerable times of in the attack cycle are while surveillance is
     being conducted and weapons are being acquired, but there are other,
     less obvious points where such activity can be spotted by someone who is
     looking for it.

      

     In order to really understand "the how", protective intelligence
     practitioners cannot just simply acknowledge that something like
     surveillance occurs. Rather they must turn a powerful lens on topics
     like pre-operational surveillance in order to study them at a granular
     level so that it can be studied and fully understood.  Dissecting an
     activity like [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/themes/surveillance_and_countersurveillance ]
     preoperational surveillance requires not only examining subjects such as
     the demeanor demonstrated by those conducting surveillance prior to an
     attack and the specific methods [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/physical_surveillance_art_blending ] and cover
     for action and cover for status utilized, but identifying certain times
     where surveillance is most likely to happen and certain optimal vantage
     points (called perches in surveillance jargon) where a surveillant is
     most likely to operate from, if he is seeking to surveil a specific
     facility or event.  This type of complex understanding of the topic of
     surveillance can then be used to help focus human or technological
     countersurveillance efforts to where they can be most effective.

      

     Unfortunately, many counterterrorism investigators are so focused on
     "the who" that they do not focus on collecting this type of granular
     "how" information. We have talked to law enforcement officers
     responsible for investigating some recent grassroots plots, and when
     asked to describe specifically how the suspects had conducted
     surveillance on the intended targets, we were met with blank stares.
     They simply had not paid attention to this type of detail. But this is
     not really the fault of these investigators. Nobody had ever explained
     to them why paying attention to and recording this type of detail was
     important. Additionally, it takes specific training and a practiced eye
     to pick out these details without glossing over them. For example, one
     must first conduct a lot of surveillance in order to become a first-rate
     countersurveillance officer. The experience of conducting surveillance
     allows you to understand what a surveillant must do and where he must be
     in order to conduct surveillance of a specific person or place.

      

     Similarly, in order to truly understand the tradecraft required to build
     an IED and the specific steps that a militant needs to complete in order
     to do so, it helps to go to an IED school where the investigator learns
     the tradecraft firsthand. Militant actors can and do change over time.
     New groups, causes and ideologies emerge, and specific militants can be
     killed, captured or retire. But the tactical steps that a militant must
     complete in order to conduct an attack are constant. It doesn't matter
     if the person planning an attack is a radical environmentalist, a
     grassroots jihadist or a member of the al Qaeda core, while these
     diverse actors will exhibit different levels of professionalism in
     regard to terrorist tradecraft, they still must follow essentially the
     same steps[Could you perhaps very, very briefly lay out what a couple of
     those steps are such as observation and logistical planning, so that the
     reader can practically apply, in his or her mind, the theory behind
     this?], accomplish the same tasks and operate in the same areas. 
     Knowing this allows protective intelligence to guard against different
     levels of threats.  

      

     Of course tactics can be change and be perfected and new tactics can be
     developed -- and technology can emerge (like cell phones and Google
     earth) -- which can alter the way in which some of these activities are
     conducted, or the time it takes to do so. However possessing a profound
     knowledge of the tradecraft and behaviors needed to execute the tactics
     allows protective intelligence practitioners to respond to such changes
     and even alter how they operate. Technology can also help the protective
     intelligence forces in their mission. There are tools such as Trapwire
     that can be focused on critical areas and that can help law enforcement
     and security forces cut through the fog of noise and activity to help
     identify things like hostile surveillance occurring in those critical
     areas identified by protective intelligence. These technological tools
     can help turn the tables on the unknown "who" by focusing on "the how".
     They will likely never replace human observation and experience, but
     they are valuable aids to human perception.

      

     Of course protective intelligence does not have to be the sole
     providence of the authorities. Corporate security managers and private
     security contractors can also apply the principles to protecting the
     people and facilities in their charge.

      

     Keeping it Simple?

      

     Al-Wuhayshi is right that it is not difficult to construct improvised
     explosives from a wide range of household chemicals such as peroxide and
     acetone or chlorine and brake fluid. He is also correct that some of
     those explosive mixtures can be concealed in objects ranging from
     electronic items to picture frames or can be employed in forms ranging
     from hand grenades to suicide vests. Likewise, low-level attacks can
     also be conducted using knives, clubs and guns.

      

     However -- and this is an important however -- if a militant is going to
     conduct such an attack against some of the targets al-Wuhayshi suggests,
     such as an airports, a train, or a specific leader or media personality,
     complexity creeps into the picture, and the attack planning cycle must
     be followed. The prospective attacker must observe and quantify the
     target, construct a plan to attack it and then execute that plan. It is
     the demands of conducting this process that will cause even an attacker
     previously unknown to the authorities to place himself in a position
     where he is vulnerable to being identified. If the attacker does this
     while there are people watching for him, he will likely be seen. If he
     does this while there are no watchers, there is little chance that he
     will become a "who" until after the attack has been completed. Good!

      

      

      

      

      
      
      
     Scott Stewart
     STRATFOR
     Office: 814 967 4046
     Cell: 814 573 8297
     scott.stewart@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com
      

 --
 Ginger Hatfield
 STRATFOR Intern
 ginger.hatfield@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
 c: (276) 393-4245
</description>
    <date>2009-11-03 22:28:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1038803_re-counterterrorism-shifting-from-the-who-to-the-how-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ginger.hatfield@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/98/98283_msg-21776-165955.jpg</path><size>3271</size><md5></md5><sha1>6580725211103564aef64d22e7eee5601a1b074b</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/98/98284_msg-21776-165954.jpg</path><size>3968</size><md5></md5><sha1>dde2086f80d900895145712aa0300ee33409dc10</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1038864</id>
    <title>Re: Counterterrorism: Shifting from the Who to the How
</title>
    <description>   one overall thought:

   you're talking about anything from a coffee shop to a line at the DMV
   being a potential target. While you suggest broader and more extensive
   countersurveillance and ied training and awareness, that's really only
   great in an ideal world. One of the most important things al-Wuhayshi does
   here is expand the target set dramatically. You can't defend everything,
   especially in this sort of scenario. While it may not be a strategic
   threat, any police department can only really expand its
   counter-surveillance capabilities and awareness so far. It can give some
   basic classes to most of its officers, perhaps, but it cannot provide
   extensive operational experience and training to many more officers than
   it already does.

   So you still have to make choices about what you defend, and what
   al-Wuhayshi has done is run around that problem and attempted to make
   everything at risk. One point is that you can't actually defend everything
   -- and you can't attempt to dramatically expand protection without
   altering how society functions.

   So in the other sense, al-Wuhayshi just reminds us that we're all
   vulnerable all the time, but a little individual situational awareness can
   sometimes go a long way.

   comments within.

     Counterterrorism: Shifting from the Who to the How

      

     In the eleventh edition of the online magazine [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/yemen_al_qaedas_resurgence ] Sada
     al-Malahim (The Echo of Battle) which was released to jihadist Web sites
     last week, the leader of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) [ link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090128_al_qaeda_arabian_peninsula_desperation_or_new_life
     ] Nasir al-Wuhayshi, wrote an article in which he called for jihadists
     to conduct simple attacks against a variety of targets. The targets he
     mentioned included "any tyrant, intelligence den, prince," or "minister"
     (referring to the governments in the Muslim world like Egypt, Saudi
     Arabia and Yemen), and "any crusaders whenever you find one of them,
     like at the airports of the crusader western countries that participate
     in the wars against Muslim, or their living compounds, trains etc."
     (obviously referring to the U.S. and Europe. plenty of infidel housing
     compounds in the ME -- especially KSA, yes?)

      

     Al-Wuhayshi, an ethnic Yemeni who spent time in Afghanistan serving as a
     lieutenant under Osama Bin Laden, noted these simple attacks could be
     conducted using readily available weapons, such as knives, clubs or
     small improvised explosive devices (IEDs). According to al-Wuhayshi,
     jihadists "don't need to conduct a big effort or spend a lot of money to
     manufacture 10 grams of explosive material more or less" and that they
     should not "waste a long time finding the materials, because you can
     find all these in your mother's kitchen, or at your hand or in any city
     you are in." 

      

     The fact that these instructions were given by al-Wuhayshi in an
     internet magazine distributed via jihadist chat rooms and not some
     secret meeting with his operational staff demonstrates that they are
     clearly intended to reach [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090805_paying_attention_grassroots ]
     grassroots jihadists - and are not intended just as internal guidance
     for AQAP members. Al- Wuhayshi was encouraging grassroots jihadists to
     "do what Abu al-Khair did" referring to [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090902_aqap_paradigm_shifts_and_lessons_learned 
     ] AQAP member Abdullah Hassan Taleh al-Asiri, the Saudi suicide bomber
     who attempted to kill Saudi Deputy Interior Minister Prince Mohammed bin
     Nayef with a small IED on August 28, 2009.

      

     The most concerning aspect of al-Wuhayshi's statement is that it is
     largely true. Improvised explosive mixtures are relatively easy to make
     from readily available chemicals -- if a person has the proper training
     -- and attacks using small IEDs or other readily attainable weapons such
     as knives or clubs [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090603_lone_wolf_lessons ] (or firearms
     in the U.S.) are indeed quite simple to conduct.

      even by amateurs (and indeed, targeting diffuse and non-descript soft
     targets with little pre-operational surveillance leaves little room for
     detection)

     As STRATFOR has [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/al_qaeda_2007_continuing_devolution ] noted for
     several years now, with al Qaeda's structure under continual attack and
     no regional al Qaeda franchise groups in the Western Hemisphere, the
     most pressing jihadist threat to the U.S. homeland at present stems from
     grassroots jihadists and not the al Qaeda core. This trend has been
     borne out by the large number of plots and arrests over the past several
     years, to include several so far in 2009. The grassroots have likewise
     proven to pose a critical threat to Europe.

      

     From a counterterrorism perspective, the problem posed by grassroots
     operatives is that unless they somehow self-identify [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090521_u_s_foiled_plot_and_very_real_grassroots_risk
     ] by contacting a government informant or other person who reports them
     to authorities, or they [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20091021_curious_case_adlene_hicheur ]
     conduct electronic correspondence with a person or organization under
     government scrutiny, they are very difficult to detect.

      

     The threat posed by grassroots operatives, and the difficulty
     identifying them, highlight the need for counterterrorism programs to
     adopt a proactive, protective intelligence approach to the problem -- an
     approach that focuses on "the how" of militant attacks instead of just
     "the who".

     the saving grace of these grassroots operatives is that their capability
     and resources are far more limited. though they may aspire to more
     advanced attacks like coordinated highjackings of airliners and can
     certainly get lucky and cause damage, they are far more likely than
     trained, experienced and hardened operatives to get caught, blunder or
     otherwise fail when attempting to reach beyond their training (which
     they have none) and capability. Maybe cite richard reade's shoe bombing
     fiasco?
      

     The How

      

     In the traditional, reactive, approach to counterterrorism, where
     authorities respond to a crime scene after a terrorist attack in order
     to find and arrest the militants responsible for the attack, it is
     customary to focus on "the who" behind the attack. Indeed, in this
     traditional approach, the only time much emphasis is placed on "the how"
     is either in an effort to identify a suspect when the attack was
     conducted by an unknown actor, or to prove that a particular suspect was
     responsible for the attack during a trial. Beyond these limited
     purposes, not much attention is paid to "the how."

      

     Now, catching and prosecuting those who commit terrorist attacks is a
     good thing, but from our perspective what is even more important is
     preventing the attack in the first place, and prevention requires a
     proactive approach.  In order to pursue such a proactive approach to
     counterterrorism, "the how" becomes the critical question. By studying
     and understanding how attacks are conducted, authorities can then
     establish systems to proactively identify early indicators that attack
     planning is occurring. People involved in that attack planning can then
     be focused on, identified, and action can be taken prevent them from
     conducting the attack(s) they are plotting. This means that focusing on
     "the how" can lead to previously unidentified suspects - those who do
     not self-identify.

      

     How is the primary question addressed by [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/proactive_tool_protective_intelligence

      ] protective intelligence, which is, at its core, a process for
     proactively identifying and assessing potential threats.  Focusing on
     "the how" then, requires protective intelligence practitioners to
     carefully study the tactics, tradecraft and behavior associated with
     militant actors involved in terrorist attacks in order to search for and
     identify those behaviors before an attack takes place. Many of these
     behaviors are not by themselves criminal in nature, visiting a public
     building and observing the security measures or standing on the street
     to watch the arrival of a VIP at her office are not illegal, but they
     can be indicators that an attack is being plotted, and in the grand
     scheme of things those legal activities could turn out to be overt
     actions in furtherance of an illegal conspiracy to conduct the attack -
     but even in a case where a conspiracy cannot be proves, steps can be
     still taken to prevent a potential attack and to mitigate the risk posed
     by the people involved.  

      

     Protective intelligence is based on the fact that attacks don't just
     happen out of the blue. well, some illconceived ones happen with almost
     no pre-op surveillance. need to mention that they do happen. Pre-op
     surveillance/intel and general sit. awareness doesn't get you
     everything, but done well it can significantly reduce attacks that
     actually are carried out and their success, right?  Rather, every
     terrorist attack follows a [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/themes/terrorist_attack_cycle ] discernable
     attack cycle, and there are critical points in that cycle where a plot
     is most likely to be detected by an outside observer and the critical
     activity that happens at these points can then be looked for. Among the
     most vulnerable times of in the attack cycle are while surveillance is
     being conducted and weapons are being acquired, but there are other,
     less obvious points where such activity can be spotted by someone who is
     looking for it.

      

     In order to really understand "the how", protective intelligence
     practitioners cannot just simply acknowledge that something like
     surveillance occurs. Rather they must turn a powerful lens on topics
     like pre-operational surveillance in order to study them at a granular
     level so that it can be studied and fully understood.  Dissecting an
     activity like [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/themes/surveillance_and_countersurveillance ]
     preoperational surveillance requires not only examining subjects such as
     the demeanor demonstrated by those conducting surveillance prior to an
     attack and the specific methods [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/physical_surveillance_art_blending ] and cover
     for action and cover for status utilized, but identifying certain times
     where surveillance is most likely to happen and certain optimal vantage
     points (called perches in surveillance jargon) where a surveillant is
     most likely to operate from, if he is seeking to surveil a specific
     facility or event.  This type of complex understanding of the topic of
     surveillance can then be used to help focus human or technological
     countersurveillance efforts to where they can be most effective.

      

     Unfortunately, many counterterrorism investigators are so focused on
     "the who" that they do not focus on collecting this type of granular
     "how" information. We have talked to law enforcement officers
     responsible for investigating some recent grassroots plots, and when
     asked to describe specifically how the suspects had conducted
     surveillance on the intended targets, we were met with blank stares.
     They simply had not paid attention to this type of detail. But this is
     not really the fault of these investigators. Nobody had ever explained
     to them why paying attention to and recording this type of detail was
     important. Additionally, it takes specific training and a practiced eye
     to pick out these details without glossing over them. For example, one
     must first conduct a lot of surveillance in order to become a first-rate
     countersurveillance officer. The experience of conducting surveillance
     allows you to understand what a surveillant must do and where he must be
     in order to conduct surveillance of a specific person or place.

      

     Similarly, in order to truly understand the tradecraft required to build
     an IED and the specific steps that a militant needs to complete in order
     to do so, it helps to go to an IED school where the investigator learns
     the tradecraft firsthand. Militant actors can and do change over time.
     New groups, causes and ideologies emerge, and specific militants can be
     killed, captured or retire. But the tactical steps that a militant must
     complete in order to conduct an attack are constant. It doesn't matter
     if the person planning an attack is a radical environmentalist, a
     grassroots jihadist or a member of the al Qaeda core, while these
     diverse actors will exhibit different levels of professionalism in
     regard to terrorist tradecraft, they still must follow essentially the
     same steps, accomplish the same tasks and operate in the same areas. 
     Knowing this allows protective intelligence to guard against different
     levels of threats.  

      

     Of course tactics can be change and be perfected and new tactics can be
     developed -- and technology can emerge (like cell phones and Google
     earth) -- which can alter the way in which some of these activities are
     conducted, or the time it takes to do so. However possessing a profound
     knowledge of the tradecraft and behaviors needed to execute the tactics
     allows protective intelligence practitioners to respond to such changes
     and even alter how they operate. Technology can also help the protective
     intelligence forces in their mission. There are tools such as Trapwire
     that can be focused on critical areas and that can help law enforcement
     and security forces cut through the fog of noise and activity to help
     identify things like hostile surveillance occurring in those critical
     areas identified by protective intelligence. These technological tools
     can help turn the tables on the unknown "who" by focusing on "the how".
     They will likely never replace human observation and experience, but
     they are valuable aids to human perception.

      

     Of course protective intelligence does not have to be the sole
     providence of the authorities. Corporate security managers and private
     security contractors can also apply the principles to protecting the
     people and facilities in their charge.

      

     Keeping it Simple?

      

     Al-Wuhayshi is right that it is not difficult to construct improvised
     explosives from a wide range of household chemicals such as peroxide and
     acetone or chlorine and brake fluid. He is also correct that some of
     those explosive mixtures can be concealed in objects ranging from
     electronic items to picture frames or can be employed in forms ranging
     from hand grenades to suicide vests. Likewise, low-level attacks can
     also be conducted using knives, clubs and guns.

      

     However -- and this is an important however -- if a militant is going to
     conduct such an attack against some of the targets al-Wuhayshi suggests,
     such as an airports, a train, or a specific leader or media personality,
     complexity creeps into the picture, and the attack planning cycle must
     be followed. The prospective attacker must observe and quantify the
     target, construct a plan to attack it and then execute that plan. It is
     the demands of conducting this process that will cause even an attacker
     previously unknown to the authorities to place himself in a position
     where he is vulnerable to being identified. If the attacker does this
     while there are people watching for him, he will likely be seen. If he
     does this while there are no watchers, there is little chance that he
     will become a "who" until after the attack has been completed. 

      

      

      

      

      
      
      
     Scott Stewart
     STRATFOR
     Office: 814 967 4046
     Cell: 814 573 8297
     scott.stewart@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com
      
</description>
    <date>2009-11-03 22:38:14</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1038864_re-counterterrorism-shifting-from-the-who-to-the-how-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1039924</id>
    <title>Re: [TACTICAL] Thought--Re: wikileaks cablegate -	disappearing	cables
</title>
    <description>Agree

I've asked an old crony @ State if they still view the released material
as classified out of curiosity sake.


Nate Hughes wrote:
&gt; also, as long as Google is readily making cached pages available, I
&gt; think we're probably good.
&gt;
&gt; On 12/2/2010 2:03 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;   
&gt;&gt; Agree
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; I've asked Steve Feldhouse, our internal counsel for his advice and
&gt;&gt; guidance.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; If the FBI raids the place, I'm headed for the back door.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Kevin Stech wrote:
&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt; That’s reasonable
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; *From:* Nate Hughes [mailto:hughes@stratfor.com]
&gt;&gt;&gt; *Sent:* Thursday, December 02, 2010 12:56
&gt;&gt;&gt; *To:* Tactical
&gt;&gt;&gt; *Cc:* Kevin Stech; 'Sean Noonan'
&gt;&gt;&gt; *Subject:* Re: [TACTICAL] Thought--Re: wikileaks cablegate -
&gt;&gt;&gt; disappearing cables
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; look, technically, if it's classified, it's classified. Inappropriate
&gt;&gt;&gt; handling of it continues to be a legal issue. This is why in their
&gt;&gt;&gt; letters to wikileaks, the USG can insist not only that he not publish
&gt;&gt;&gt; it, but that he somehow return all property (this shit was all clearly
&gt;&gt;&gt; written before the digital age).
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; But it's also absurd. And it is important for Kevin to be doing what
&gt;&gt;&gt; he's doing, in the event that something that is important does leak
&gt;&gt;&gt; out and is retracted. We need to be able to know what that was.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Get a password on it, send a note to Fred, Stick and Rodger and carry
&gt;&gt;&gt; on until instructed otherwise.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; On 12/2/2010 1:51 PM, Kevin Stech wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; If there are real legal concerns I can throw a password on it
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; *From:* Sean Noonan [mailto:sean.noonan@stratfor.com]
&gt;&gt;&gt; *Sent:* Thursday, December 02, 2010 12:46
&gt;&gt;&gt; *To:* Kevin Stech; Tactical
&gt;&gt;&gt; *Subject:* Thought--Re: wikileaks cablegate - disappearing cables
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Is the research website that hosts a copy of these cables public?
&gt;&gt;&gt; Could we get in trouble for storing classified information?
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; I don't mean to be nitpicky, and you guys may have already addressed
&gt;&gt;&gt; this, but I wanted to double check just in case.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; It seems like no one will be charged with that--and sooo many other
&gt;&gt;&gt; people are hosting it---but that doesn't make it legal either.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; On 12/2/10 12:37 PM, Kevin Stech wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Was it this one?
&gt;&gt;&gt;  
&gt;&gt;&gt; https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2005/03/05TELA
&gt;&gt;&gt; VIV1580.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;  
&gt;&gt;&gt;  
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;     -----Original Message-----
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;     From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com &lt;mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;     Behalf Of Fred Burton
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;     Sent: Thursday, December 02, 2010 12:33
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;     To: Analyst List
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;     Subject: Re: wikileaks cablegate - disappearing cables
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;       New response from Wiki server on a Mossad cable/briefing I pulled up
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;       on Day one..
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;       not found, overloaded or other issues ...
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;     We are sorry but we cannot answer your request at the moment.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;     This may be any kind of error.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;     Reva Bhalla wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;         ive only gone through a couple of them,b ut these dont even seem that
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;         sensitive to warrant a disappearing act On Dec 2, 2010, at 11:59 AM,
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;         Karen Hooper wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;          
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;             Good eye, Kevin. Also, for each of them that i pulled up, Google has
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;             a cached copy available to load.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;              
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;              
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;              
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;             On 12/2/10 12:56 PM, Kevin Stech wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 By continuously mirroring the Cablegate website, it lets me do
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 certain things like monitor the timestamps of the cables very
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 closely. One anomaly this has turned up is a number of disappearing
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 cables. I haven't tested each one yet, but I believe the following
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 cables to have been removed from the Cablegate website. Check for
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 yourself.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                  
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10ROME173.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10STATE17263.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10BAKU134.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/01/10LONDON131.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/10/08RPODUBAI49.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/08/08MUSCAT565.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/12/08STATE134490.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/06/09ASHGABAT757.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/08/09KUWAIT760.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/04/09RPODUBAI177.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/09ANKARA1594.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/09BAGHDAD2992.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/01/09RIYADH181.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/09BAGHDAD3195.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/09DOHA728.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2006/04/06ABUDHABI1401.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2005/03/05TELAVIV1580.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/11/07STATE152317.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/11/07BAGHDAD3895.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/01/07TELAVIV64.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                  
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 You can view the backups of the original cables here.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                  
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 10ROME173.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 10STATE17263.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 10BAKU134.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/01/
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 10LONDON131.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/10/
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 08RPODUBAI49.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/08/
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 08MUSCAT565.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/12/
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 08STATE134490.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/06/
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 09ASHGABAT757.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/08/
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 09KUWAIT760.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/04/
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 09RPODUBAI177.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 09ANKARA1594.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 09BAGHDAD2992.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/01/
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 09RIYADH181.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 09BAGHDAD3195.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 09DOHA728.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2006/04/
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 06ABUDHABI1401.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2005/03/
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 05TELAVIV1580.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/11/
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 07STATE152317.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/11/
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 07BAGHDAD3895.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/01/
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 07TELAVIV64.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                  
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 Kevin Stech
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 Research Director | STRATFOR
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 kevin.stech@stratfor.com &lt;mailto:kevin.stech@stratfor.com&gt; &lt;mailto:kevin.stech@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 +1 (512) 744-4086
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                  
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;          
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Sean Noonan
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Tactical Analyst
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; www.stratfor.com &lt;http://www.stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;       
</description>
    <date>2010-12-02 20:17:17</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1039924_re-tactical-thought-re-wikileaks-cablegate-disappearing.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kevin.stech@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1039952</id>
    <title>RE: Counterterrorism: Shifting from the Who to the How
</title>
    <description>   Stick, People need to pay to learn how to translate what we say, even if
   we don't know what it is we said. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Fred Burton
   Sent: Tuesday, November 03, 2009 4:31 PM
   To: 'Analyst List'
   Subject: RE: Counterterrorism: Shifting from the Who to the How
   TrapWire is a technology solution predicated upon behavior patterns in red
   zones to identify surveillance.   It helps you connect the dots over time
   and distance. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Mike Jeffers
   Sent: Tuesday, November 03, 2009 4:05 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: Counterterrorism: Shifting from the Who to the How
   Great piece, one small question.  
   On Nov 3, 2009, at 2:06 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     A joint Stick/Fred production.
      
     We know what we are talking about, and this makes sense to us - but
     please make sure that we have explained this in terms that can be
     understood by someone other than Fred and me.
      
      
     &lt;atta9339.jpg&gt;
     The Who
      
      
     &lt;Outlook.jpg&gt;
     The How
      
      
     Counterterrorism: Shifting from the Who to the How
      
     In the eleventh edition of the online magazine [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/yemen_al_qaedas_resurgence ] Sada
     al-Malahim (The Echo of Battle) which was released to jihadist Web sites
     last week, the leader of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) [ link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090128_al_qaeda_arabian_peninsula_desperation_or_new_life
     ] Nasir al-Wuhayshi, wrote an article in which he called for jihadists
     to conduct simple attacks against a variety of targets. The targets he
     mentioned included "any tyrant, intelligence den, prince," or "minister"
     (referring to the governments in the Muslim world like Egypt, Saudi
     Arabia and Yemen), and "any crusaders whenever you find one of them,
     like at the airports of the crusader western countries that participate
     in the wars against Muslim, or their living compounds, trains etc."
     (obviously referring to the U.S. and Europe.)
      
     Al-Wuhayshi, an ethnic Yemeni who spent time in Afghanistan serving as a
     lieutenant under Osama Bin Laden, noted these simple attacks could be
     conducted using readily available weapons, such as knives, clubs or
     small improvised explosive devices (IEDs). According to al-Wuhayshi,
     jihadists "don't need to conduct a big effort or spend a lot of money to
     manufacture 10 grams of explosive material more or less" and that they
     should not "waste a long time finding the materials, because you can
     find all these in your mother's kitchen, or at your hand or in any city
     you are in." 
      
     The fact that these instructions were given by al-Wuhayshi in an
     internet magazine distributed via jihadist chat rooms and not some
     secret meeting with his operational staff demonstrates that they are
     clearly intended to reach [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090805_paying_attention_grassroots ]
     grassroots jihadists - and are not intended just as internal guidance
     for AQAP members. Al- Wuhayshi was encouraging grassroots jihadists to
     "do what Abu al-Khair did" referring to [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090902_aqap_paradigm_shifts_and_lessons_learned 
     ] AQAP member Abdullah Hassan Taleh al-Asiri, the Saudi suicide bomber
     who attempted to kill Saudi Deputy Interior Minister Prince Mohammed bin
     Nayef with a small IED on August 28, 2009.
      
     The most concerning aspect of al-Wuhayshi's statement is that it is
     largely true. Improvised explosive mixtures are relatively easy to make
     from readily available chemicals -- if a person has the proper training
     -- and attacks using small IEDs or other readily attainable weapons such
     as knives or clubs [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090603_lone_wolf_lessons ] (or firearms
     in the U.S.) are indeed quite simple to conduct.
      
     As STRATFOR has [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/al_qaeda_2007_continuing_devolution ] noted for
     several years now, with al Qaeda's structure under continual attack and
     no regional al Qaeda franchise groups in the Western Hemisphere, the
     most pressing jihadist threat to the U.S. homeland at present stems from
     grassroots jihadists and not the al Qaeda core. This trend has been
     borne out by the large number of plots and arrests over the past several
     years, to include several so far in 2009. The grassroots have likewise
     proven to pose a critical threat to Europe.
      
     From a counterterrorism perspective, the problem posed by grassroots
     operatives is that unless they somehow self-identify [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090521_u_s_foiled_plot_and_very_real_grassroots_risk
     ] by contacting a government informant or other person who reports them
     to authorities, or they [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20091021_curious_case_adlene_hicheur ]
     conduct electronic correspondence with a person or organization under
     government scrutiny, they are very difficult to detect.
      
     The threat posed by grassroots operatives, and the difficulty
     identifying them, highlight the need for counterterrorism programs to
     adopt a proactive, protective intelligence approach to the problem -- an
     approach that focuses on "the how" of militant attacks instead of just
     "the who".
      
     The How
      
     In the traditional, reactive, approach to counterterrorism, where
     authorities respond to a crime scene after a terrorist attack in order
     to find and arrest the militants responsible for the attack, it is
     customary to focus on "the who" behind the attack. Indeed, in this
     traditional approach, the only time much emphasis is placed on "the how"
     is either in an effort to identify a suspect when the attack was
     conducted by an unknown actor, or to prove that a particular suspect was
     responsible for the attack during a trial. Beyond these limited
     purposes, not much attention is paid to "the how."
      
     Now, catching and prosecuting those who commit terrorist attacks is a
     good thing, but from our perspective what is even more important is
     preventing the attack in the first place, and prevention requires a
     proactive approach.  In order to pursue such a proactive approach to
     counterterrorism, "the how" becomes the critical question. By studying
     and understanding how attacks are conducted, authorities can then
     establish systems to proactively identify early indicators that attack
     planning is occurring. People involved in that attack planning can then
     be focused on, identified, and action can be taken prevent them from
     conducting the attack(s) they are plotting. This means that focusing on
     "the how" can lead to previously unidentified suspects - those who do
     not self-identify.
      
     How is the primary question addressed by [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/proactive_tool_protective_intelligence
      ] protective intelligence, which is, at its core, a process for
     proactively identifying and assessing potential threats.  Focusing on
     "the how" then, requires protective intelligence practitioners to
     carefully study the tactics, tradecraft and behavior associated with
     militant actors involved in terrorist attacks in order to search for and
     identify those behaviors before an attack takes place. Many of these
     behaviors are not by themselves criminal in nature, visiting a public
     building and observing the security measures or standing on the street
     to watch the arrival of a VIP at her office are not illegal, but they
     can be indicators that an attack is being plotted, and in the grand
     scheme of things those legal activities could turn out to be overt
     actions in furtherance of an illegal conspiracy to conduct the attack -
     but even in a case where a conspiracy cannot be proves, steps can be
     still taken to prevent a potential attack and to mitigate the risk posed
     by the people involved.  
      
     Protective intelligence is based on the fact that attacks don't just
     happen out of the blue. Rather, every terrorist attack follows a [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/themes/terrorist_attack_cycle ] discernable
     attack cycle, and there are critical points in that cycle where a plot
     is most likely to be detected by an outside observer and the critical
     activity that happens at these points can then be looked for. Among the
     most vulnerable times of in the attack cycle are while surveillance is
     being conducted and weapons are being acquired, but there are other,
     less obvious points where such activity can be spotted by someone who is
     looking for it.
      
     In order to really understand "the how", protective intelligence
     practitioners cannot just simply acknowledge that something like
     surveillance occurs. Rather they must turn a powerful lens on topics
     like pre-operational surveillance in order to study them at a granular
     level so that it can be studied and fully understood.  Dissecting an
     activity like [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/themes/surveillance_and_countersurveillance ]
     preoperational surveillance requires not only examining subjects such as
     the demeanor demonstrated by those conducting surveillance prior to an
     attack and the specific methods [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/physical_surveillance_art_blending ] and cover
     for action and cover for status utilized, but identifying certain times
     where surveillance is most likely to happen and certain optimal vantage
     points (called perches in surveillance jargon) where a surveillant is
     most likely to operate from, if he is seeking to surveil a specific
     facility or event.  This type of complex understanding of the topic of
     surveillance can then be used to help focus human or technological
     countersurveillance efforts to where they can be most effective.
      
     Unfortunately, many counterterrorism investigators are so focused on
     "the who" that they do not focus on collecting this type of granular
     "how" information. We have talked to law enforcement officers
     responsible for investigating some recent grassroots plots, and when
     asked to describe specifically how the suspects had conducted
     surveillance on the intended targets, we were met with blank stares.
     They simply had not paid attention to this type of detail. But this is
     not really the fault of these investigators. Nobody had ever explained
     to them why paying attention to and recording this type of detail was
     important. Additionally, it takes specific training and a practiced eye
     to pick out these details without glossing over them. For example, one
     must first conduct a lot of surveillance in order to become a first-rate
     countersurveillance officer. The experience of conducting surveillance
     allows you to understand what a surveillant must do and where he must be
     in order to conduct surveillance of a specific person or place.
      
     Similarly, in order to truly understand the tradecraft required to build
     an IED and the specific steps that a militant needs to complete in order
     to do so, it helps to go to an IED school where the investigator learns
     the tradecraft firsthand. Militant actors can and do change over time.
     New groups, causes and ideologies emerge, and specific militants can be
     killed, captured or retire. But the tactical steps that a militant must
     complete in order to conduct an attack are constant. It doesn't matter
     if the person planning an attack is a radical environmentalist, a
     grassroots jihadist or a member of the al Qaeda core, while these
     diverse actors will exhibit different levels of professionalism in
     regard to terrorist tradecraft, they still must follow essentially the
     same steps, accomplish the same tasks and operate in the same areas. 
     Knowing this allows protective intelligence to guard against different
     levels of threats.  
      
     Of course tactics can be change and be perfected and new tactics can be
     developed -- and technology can emerge (like cell phones and Google
     earth) -- which can alter the way in which some of these activities are
     conducted, or the time it takes to do so. However possessing a profound
     knowledge of the tradecraft and behaviors needed to execute the tactics
     allows protective intelligence practitioners to respond to such changes
     and even alter how they operate. Technology can also help the protective
     intelligence forces in their mission. There are tools such as Trapwire
     (what is trapwire? a quick phrase would help a reader who's not in the
     know) that can be focused on critical areas and that can help law
     enforcement and security forces cut through the fog of noise and
     activity to help identify things like hostile surveillance occurring in
     those critical areas identified by protective intelligence. These
     technological tools can help turn the tables on the unknown "who" by
     focusing on "the how". They will likely never replace human observation
     and experience, but they are valuable aids to human perception.
     Of course protective intelligence does not have to be the sole
     providence of the authorities. Corporate security managers and private
     security contractors can also apply the principles to protecting the
     people and facilities in their charge.
      
     Keeping it Simple?
      
     Al-Wuhayshi is right that it is not difficult to construct improvised
     explosives from a wide range of household chemicals such as peroxide and
     acetone or chlorine and brake fluid. He is also correct that some of
     those explosive mixtures can be concealed in objects ranging from
     electronic items to picture frames or can be employed in forms ranging
     from hand grenades to suicide vests. Likewise, low-level attacks can
     also be conducted using knives, clubs and guns.
      
     However -- and this is an important however -- if a militant is going to
     conduct such an attack against some of the targets al-Wuhayshi suggests,
     such as an airports, a train, or a specific leader or media personality,
     complexity creeps into the picture, and the attack planning cycle must
     be followed. The prospective attacker must observe and quantify the
     target, construct a plan to attack it and then execute that plan. It is
     the demands of conducting this process that will cause even an attacker
     previously unknown to the authorities to place himself in a position
     where he is vulnerable to being identified. If the attacker does this
     while there are people watching for him, he will likely be seen. If he
     does this while there are no watchers, there is little chance that he
     will become a "who" until after the attack has been completed. 
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
     Scott Stewart
     STRATFOR
     Office: 814 967 4046
     Cell: 814 573 8297
     scott.stewart@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com
      

   Mike Jeffers
   STRATFOR
   Austin, Texas
   Tel: 1-512-744-4077
   Mobile: 1-512-934-0636
</description>
    <date>2009-11-03 23:35:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1039952_re-counterterrorism-shifting-from-the-who-to-the-how-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1039966</id>
    <title>Re: ANALYSIS PROPOSAL -- COTE D'IVOIRE,
	moving forward from electionsfiasco
</title>
    <description>   Ok

   --
   Sent via BlackBerry from Cingular Wireless

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Mark Schroeder &lt;mark.schroeder@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 3 Dec 2010 12:10:06 -0600 (CST)
   To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: ANALYSIS PROPOSAL -- COTE D'IVOIRE, moving forward from
   elections fiasco
   At the heart of it, knowing whether a national crisis will disrupt output
   in the world's #1 cocoa producer.

   There may be circulation slowdowns as the government maintains a curfew,
   but overall, the southern-based government will keep the cocoa flowing and
   the northerner opposition isn't positioned to stop that.

   On 12/3/10 12:03 PM, Rodger Baker wrote:

     why is STRATFOR interested in Ivory Coast? 
     On Dec 3, 2010, at 11:53 AM, Mark Schroeder wrote:

       Type III, analysis-driven

       Thesis:
       Cote d'Ivoire's Constitutional Court ruled Dec. 3 that incumbent
       President Laurent Gbagbo won the country's run-off presidential
       election, overturning preliminary results released a day before by the
       Independent Electoral Commission. The move will lead to a loud
       backlash by supporters of opposition presidential candidate Alassane
       Ouattara, but clashes will be contained by a strong imposition of
       government control, while Gbagbo uses his advantages of economic and
       security force muster to compel  Ouattara to enter drawn-out
       negotiations to accommodate each other in a new coalition government.
</description>
    <date>2010-12-03 19:12:52</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-06 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1039966_re-analysis-proposal-cote-d-ivoire-moving-forward-from.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>rbaker@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1040789</id>
    <title>Re: Info - Wiki Founder
</title>
    <description>   This means that the administration doesn't buy the Bradley Manning story?
   That they think there has to have been someone more high up?

   On 12/1/10 12:19 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 The odd aspect in play here is the seated Grand Jury looking at inside
 the beltway leaks.  DoJ is on a Nazi-like pursuit of leakers.  I have it
 on very word that Obama himself is driving that train, in cahoots
 w/Holder.  Wiki far surpasses anything some reporter from the NYT has
 done.

 Kevin Stech wrote:

 Regular aclu member there

  

 -----Original Message-----
 From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
    

 [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On
  

 Behalf Of Fred Burton
 Sent: Wednesday, December 01, 2010 12:12
 To: Analyst List
 Subject: Info - Wiki Founder

 &gt;From a very good contact @ the FBI --


 How come you guys haven't picked this left-wing lunatic WikiLeaks
    

 founder up on
  

 some sort of trumped up charge?


    

 --------------------------------------------------------------------------
 -
  

 1st Amendment overprotects journalists.
    

  
</description>
    <date>2010-12-01 19:24:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-21 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1040789_re-info-wiki-founder-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bayless.parsley@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1044278</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat
</title>
    <description>   It is up to you and CT how you approach this. On the short-term, this
   looks like something you can handle without me. If you want to dabble in
   the more long-term view of what is going on here, I would love to help.

   On 11/22/10 10:58 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

     In the more long-term, I think an analysis of the German intelligence
     agencies would be good too. They have been pretty decimated by the Cold
     War and by all the problems associated with running an intelligence
     agency in a post-Gestapo country. If Germany is ever going to become a
     world power again, however, they would need to overcome these deamons as
     well. That is sort of the last straw for Germany, the one that is going
     to be most sensitive to overcome. But perhaps this case may illustrate
     how they are already overcoming these issues.

     On 11/22/10 10:50 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       Main problem is that Der Spiegel is just that good, they've at least
       touched on most of what I would want to say about it.  The main thing
       here is how the politics of a terror threat/alert coincide with the
       reality of the threat itself. 

       We saw that Germany was fairly relaxed bout the earlier threat in
       Europe released by the US.  I'm not sure if that was the same as the
       info that the FBI passed over about this shia group, Saif (I don't
       know anything about them).  But something changed, as we noted last
       week in their interpretation.  That seems to go down to this virtual
       walk-in.  The one thing I was left confused about is whether BKA had
       ever been in contact with this source before.  It sounds like he cold
       called them.  It's common knowledge that walk-ins, rather than
       recruits, are nearly always the best sources.  But at the same time,
       they are very suspicious as double agents.  If this was a US source
       they would be freaking the fuck out after having Al-Balawi turn on
       them.  The germans seem to have cooler heads, but they will be working
       24/7 to verify the source (let me make another plug for John Lecarre's
       A Most Wanted Man here, most of his career was in Germany). 

       They've clearly got enough corroborating information that they
       consider this a real threat.  But politically they are faced with the
       universal 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' alert problem.  If
       the Interior ministry doesn't say something, they will be liable if an
       attack occurs.  Look at the constant press over information on the
       warning intelligence for Mumbai.  As we've said before, simply issuing
       the warning may help to deter the attackers. 

       The real important bit here, is that it seems the germans have fairly
       good intelligence.  While this attack is still not happening tomorrow,
       they have a lot of details about what might be in the works, rather
       than a single-source intercept that indicates some vague threat.  It
       seems they've increased security pretty well at the Bundestag, and
       want to add to the presence at any possible target.  This is where we
       seem them scrambling, and where their intelligence holes are. 

       The task now for the germans is to verify this source.  Maybe even
       pick him up and put him on ice somewhere (Fred/Stick?), not in GErmany
       but in Pakistan/Afghanistan.  That will require some cooperation with
       either/both the Americans and Pakistanis.  They also need to verify
       all the bio information they have on these 4-6 guys trying to get into
       germany and watch travelers very carefully.  The germans seem to be
       very good at surveilling these threats within Germany, so their best
       luck may come when one of the guys overseas contacts a local already
       under surveillance. 

       At minimum, this could be a pretty interesting tearline this week. 
       Both the walk-in issues and the CIA/FBI liaison conflicts that I
       havne't gotten into here. 
       On 11/22/10 10:34 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

         Any thoughts on where you guys are thinking of going with this?

         Der Spiegel article is indeed interesting.

         On 11/22/10 9:28 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           Great report from Der Spiegel (thanks Mikey).  I suggest anyone
           interested to read the whole thing.  They ask the right questions,
           and while not as much detail as I hoped, give us a much better
           understanding on the threat in Germany. 

           The BKA (germany's FBI) must be extremely busy verifying the
           details of this virtual walk-in.  It obviously caused the germans
           to shit their pants.  But the real questions are buried in the
           article---how real was this plot, how real is the source, is the
           source just trying to get back to the land of brezeln and bier?
           Trying to double-cross them somehow?

           Also note the tip off from the FBI (cue fred), not the usual CIA
           liaison with BND. 

           For Eurasia, there's a lot in here on the internal politics of the
           interior minister position, and the relation between state and
           federal government. 

           On 11/22/10 8:55 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

             -------- Original Message --------

              Subject: [OS] GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror      
                       Threat                                                 
                 Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 08:38:21 -0600                        
                 From: Graham Smith &lt;graham.smith@stratfor.com&gt;               
             Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                          
                   To: os@stratfor.com                                        

              11/22/2010 11:38 AM
             Fears of a Mumbai Redux
             The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat

             http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,730377,00.html
             By Matthias Bartsch, Yassin Musharbash and Holger Stark

             Germany is currently in a state of high alert. Security
             officials are warning that they have concrete information
             pointing to a possible terror attack on the federal parliament
             building in Berlin, a massively popular tourist attraction. The
             days of Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere's reserved stances
             in dealing with such warnings appear to be over.

             The call came from abroad, and the man speaking hurriedly on the
             other end of the line sounded as if he feared for his life. He
             wanted out, he told the officers of the German Federal Criminal
             Police Office (BKA) -- out of the terrorist scene. He wanted to
             come back to Germany, back to his family. Then he asked if
             German officials could help him.

             Right now, they're trying to do just that. The BKA is pursuing
             the case under the codename "Nova." The apparently remorseful
             man could be an important possible whistleblower from a
             dangerous region of the globe. In fact, he is also the most
             recent reason why German Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere
             put the entire country in a state of fright on Wednesday.

             During a hastily called press conference that day, de Maiziere
             stated that Germany faced the threat of terrorist attacks that
             might be launched against the country at some point in November.
             As he put it, Germany is "presently dealing with a new
             situation."
             Just two days earlier, the source had called for the third time
             in just a short period and provided more information. He told
             officials that a small group of terrorists wanted to conduct a
             raid on the Reichstag building in Berlin, which houses the
             federal parliament, and that that was only one of the targets
             included in their attack plans.

             Germany on High Alert

             Since then, Germany has been in a state of high alert. The
             Reichstag is surrounded with barricades and its popular cupola
             tourist attraction temporarily closed to visitors. Police armed
             with submachine guns are patrolling major railway stations and
             airports. And vacations have been called off for officials at
             the country's security agencies. Wherever they have cause for
             doing so, the authorities are secretly monitoring
             communications, conducting surveillance operations and launching
             undercover investigations. At the moment, investigators seem to
             be at a loss; their modus operandi: "We'll prod the shrubs and
             see if we can flush out any birds."

             "There is cause for worry, but no cause for hysteria," de
             Maiziere assured his listeners. But while he has never been much
             of an agitator, his colleagues at the state level have described
             the situation in much more drastic terms. Uwe Schu:nemann, for
             example, who has been the interior minister of the northwestern
             state of Lower Saxony since 2003, stated that he had "never
             experienced a heightened security situation like this one." And
             Berlin Senator for the Interior Ehrhart Ko:rting, whose position
             is tantamount to that of a government minister in the
             city-state, has already even gone so far as to call on the
             inhabitants of the German capital city to report
             suspicious-looking individuals of Arab origin to the police. "If
             you suddenly see three somewhat strange-looking men who are new
             to your neighborhood, who hide their faces and who only speak
             Arabic," Ko:rting said, "you should report them to the
             authorities."

             Under heightened pressure, officials in Germany's 16 federal
             states are now checking to see when and where major events are
             scheduled to take place this coming week within their
             boundaries. And nothing suggested as a possible target is being
             discounted, no matter how unlikely. For example, officials in
             Rhineland-Palatinate warned the state's interior minister, Karl
             Peter Burch, that there was always a lot going on at IKEA stores
             on Saturdays.[WTF]

             Serenity, Scaremongering and Strategy

             Since last week, German politicians at both the state and
             federal levels have once again had to figure out how they will
             handle themselves when making warnings about terrorist attacks.
             They have had to come up with a language that can simultaneously
             convey both an alert and a sense of calm.

             This is no easy task. For one thing, this isn't the first time
             this has happened. In September 2009, for example, right before
             federal elections were held, there were concrete threats that
             resulted in a heightened security situation. But, in the end,
             nothing happened. This time around, people are wondering whether
             they are on the precipice of an emergency or whether these are
             once again empty threats.

             Still, one thing is certain: For the time being, Germany has
             become a different country -- more nervous, more anxious, more
             agitated. And Germany's domestic security policies are being put
             to the test.

             When Interior Minister de Maiziere assumed his office in October
             2009 in conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel's government, he
             aimed to cool down the heated sense of alarm regularly fanned
             out by his predecessors. What's more, the man who had served as
             Merkel's chief of staff in Chancellery until being moved to the
             role of interior minister in her new government, was given the
             task of nurturing a more relaxed relationship between her party,
             the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and its new coalition
             partner, the business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP). In
             particular, it was his job to not draw out the long-standing
             conflict over domestic security policies with the Justice
             Ministry, which has been led since the 2009 election by Sabine
             Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, a member of the FDP. Indeed, Merkel
             feared that the quarrelsome FDP might try to capitalize on the
             issue to win over more voters, so she assigned de Maiziere to
             prevent that from happening.

             In fact, the plan was to repeat the same strategy that the CDU
             and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU),
             had used when they were in the so-called "grand coalition" with
             the center-left Social Democratic Party, between 2005 and 2009.
             At the time, they made a point of undermining the SPD by
             championing what had traditionally been the latter party's
             issues.

             A Game-Changer

             But now the game plan has changed. This November will
             drastically alter de Maiziere's understanding of his role in
             office. If he tries to return things to their previous state of
             calm, he's going to have a very tough time. In fact, it's much
             more likely that he will be a completely different interior
             minister.

             For a while now, de Maiziere's softer stance has prompted
             opposition by politicians on the right involved with domestic
             security issues. But they are now calling louder than ever for a
             tougher course to be followed. Merkel is also adjusting to the
             new situation and is reportedly happy with the way de Maiziere
             handled himself last week. Likewise, no one seems to have voiced
             any criticism last Thursday evening during a meeting of the
             Coalition Committee, a regular gathering of the parties that are
             part of the government.

             The almost complete lack of protest has a lot to do with where
             the alarming information is coming from. In fact, information
             regarding the supposedly imminent attacks has come from two
             independent sources. Shortly before receiving the telephone call
             about the planned attacks, BKA officials had received a cable
             from their American counterparts at the FBI, America's federal
             police force, warning of possible attacks.

             Still, what truth is there in these "security-related" pieces of
             information coming from both domestic and foreign sources? And,
             given all the discrepancies in the warning messages, just how
             much do they deserve to be trusted? Indeed, even among security
             officials themselves, there is some doubt about how legitimate
             these statements are -- and about just how acute the danger
             threatening Germany really is.

             An Attack Modelled after Mumbai[plot details in this section]
             What the caller reported was undeniably alarming. According to
             him, al-Qaida and associated groups based in Pakistan were
             making joint preparations for an attack in Germany. One idea was
             to remotely detonate a bomb using a mobile phone. Another called
             for a small group of terrorists to storm the Reichstag with guns
             blazing, take hostages and end everything in one calamitous
             bloodbath. Indeed, BKA officials learned that the latter plan
             had been modeled on the storming of luxury hotels in Mumbai, the
             Indian capital, almost exactly two years ago, in a massacre that
             left 175 people dead.

             According to the caller, the plan called for the terrorists to
             procure the submachine guns, automatic rifles, explosives and
             whatever else they would need to storm Germany's parliament
             building in the Balkans. He said that two men had already
             traveled to Germany six to eight weeks earlier, adding that one
             had the nom de guerre of "Abu Mohammed" and that the other one
             was a German of Turkish origin. Both apparently had roots in the
             Greater Berlin metropolitan area, were currently unemployed and
             living off of welfare payments and had immersed themselves in
             the anonymity provided by a major city -- until the time should
             come for their activation.

             Likewise, there were allegedly four other volunteers --
             including a German, a Turk, a North African and another jihadist
             of unknown identity -- in the training camps run by al-Qaida and
             related groups waiting for the signal to travel to Germany. And,
             according to the telephone source, al-Qaida's plan was to attack
             in February or March.
             The only question now relates to just how credible the caller's
             statements are. He is an insider who joined up with armed groups
             several months ago and has earned a reputation as a fanatic
             fighter.
             But could it be that he is only trying to tell German officials
             the juiciest things possible in order to raise his own market
             value and thereby prompt them to extract him from the terror
             scene? Or could it be that al-Qaida is even planning a second
             spectacular coup like the one in December 2009, when the
             Americans allowed a supposedly top-level turncoat onto an
             American military base without any sort of pat-down, who went on
             to detonate his explosive vest and blow seven CIA officials to
             bits?

             A Strange Message

             A clear picture has yet to emerge. And one reason for this is
             also the fact that it was only two weeks ago that the FBI first
             decided to share information about another possible attack with
             German officials.

             In this case, even the way contact was made was unusual. Under
             normal circumstances, liaisons from the CIA station in Germany
             are the ones to communicate American warnings to their German
             counterparts. But, this time around, it was an apparently
             particularly anxious FBI that chose to directly notify the BKA.
             The FBI told the Germans about an obscure Indian group called
             "Saif," or "sword." Despite being a Shiite group, it had
             allegedly made a pact with al-Qaida, a Sunni organization, and
             sent five of its men to the Pakistani province of Waziristan for
             training. According to the FBI, two volunteers -- who were
             already equipped with visas allowing them to travel freely
             within the 25 European countries belonging to the Schengen zone
             -- were supposedly already en route to Germany and would enter
             the United Arab Emirates on Monday, Nov. 22. There, they would
             allegedly be provided with new travel documents before traveling
             on to Germany. One of the men is supposedly named "Khan," which
             is about as common in that part of the world as "Smith" is in
             English-speaking countries. And no firm conclusion had been made
             about their nationalities.

             The FBI agents even named the presumed masterminds behind the
             operation. A certain Mushtaq Altaf Bin-Khadri, who is in charge
             of finances and training for "Saif," allegedly dispatched the
             terrorist squad. But the FBI was not in a position to comment on
             the targets of the two men in Germany.

             One name came up time and again in the communique, and one that
             pricked the Germans' ears: Dawood Ibrahim. The 54-year-old arms
             trader is "India's most-wanted man." The US government has
             listed him as a "global terrorist" and persuaded the United
             Nations to place his name on a list of supporters of terror.
             Ibrahim is rumored to be the head of D-Company, a criminal
             syndicate named after himself, and is believed to be in charge
             of smuggling the suspected terrorists into Germany.

             Both the FBI and the BKA are attaching a lot of importance to
             the information in the FBI communique. But the intelligence
             services of the two countries -- the CIA in the United States
             and the BND and Office for the Protection of the Constitution in
             Germany, the country's foreign and domestic intelligence
             agencies, respectively -- point to internal contradictions as
             reasons for their skepticism. As they see it, for example, it is
             highly unlikely that a Shiite group would team up with Sunni
             terrorists, especially since a good part of al-Qaida propaganda
             vilifies Shiites. Other reasons for doubt include the facts that
             none of the intelligence agencies was previously familiar with
             an organization called "Saif," that there have been no
             previously recorded threats against Germany by Indian
             extremists, and that the whole scenario seems rather
             implausible.

             On the other hand, the FBI information is uncommonly concrete.
             In addition to the names of the suspects, it also provides
             information about the exact day on which they are supposed to
             arrive in the United Arab Emirates. Moreover, Ibrahim is
             believed to be one of the men behind the terror attacks in
             Mumbai. If he really is involved, that alone would be reason
             enough for worry.

             Abnormal Circumstances

             Under normal circumstances, a message of this kind from the
             United States would no doubt be cause for serious-minded
             scrutiny, but it would not be a cause for alarm. For example,
             the BKA would go through all recent visa applications, and
             federal police officers would take a closer look at all the
             people entering Germany from Arab states. And the intelligence
             services would make the rounds to see if any of its partners had
             any helpful information on the matter.

             Indeed, under normal circumstances, there are always a lot of
             these communiques, most of which turn out to be false alarms.
             But these are no normal circumstances. Germany is in a state of
             emergency. Other countries, such as the United States, employ a
             system of official warning levels based on color codes that
             change -- from yellow to orange, for example -- when the danger
             level is thought to increase. But, in Germany, the interior
             minister is the barometer: He consults with experts -- and then
             it is he who must call the shots.

             For the minister, a situation like this presents a dilemma. If
             he remains silent and something happens, he's a failure. If he
             makes loud warning and nothing happens, he's just a
             rabble-rouser trying to push through controversial tougher
             security laws. And, of course, the public never thanks you if
             everyday life continues in a normal, peaceful way.

             Absolute Security Remains a Pipe Dream

             When de Maiziere became Germany's interior minister, he had
             planned to lead the ministry in a level-headed way. For example,
             he prefers to use phrases such as "internal calm" rather than
             "internal security." And it was only six weeks ago that he
             uttered the sentence: "There's no cause for alarm." But, since
             then, the chorus of warning voices has only ballooned in size.

             This change in course is the combined result of everything that
             happened beforehand. It might very well turn out that the
             alleged Indian terror squad stays home and that the raid on the
             Reichstag never happens. But what will remain is a well-founded
             supposition that there is a critical mass of terrorists in the
             border region between Afghanistan and Pakistan that is thinking
             about launching attacks in Europe -- and certainly in Germany,
             as well.

             Raw Nerves

             Given such circumstances, there is a major sense of alarm among
             German officials. Last Thursday, just a day after de Maiziere's
             shocking press conference, the BKA issued a press release "in
             connection with the current high-risk situation." It reported
             that a piece of suspicious luggage had been discovered a day
             earlier in Windhoek, the capital of Namibia, before being loaded
             onto a plane bound for Germany. The laptop bag contained
             batteries, wires, a detonator and a clock -- in other words, all
             the ingredients you need for a potential airborne catastrophe.

             It sounded as if another terror plot had been foiled. Had there
             been a plan to blow up Air Berlin Flight 7377 en route to
             Munich? And had the authorities, yet again, discovered an
             explosive device at the last minute? In the end, all the worry
             was unfounded. As it turned out, the piece of luggage was a test
             device built by a company that designs "real test" suitcases to
             be used to test security measures. It remains unclear who
             checked the bag in. But the fact that the BKA was so quick to go
             into alarm mode -- and publicly so -- has been a communications
             debacle.

             Of course, these days, nobody wants to be the one that wasn't
             sufficiently circumspect, the one who took too long to speak up.
             No one wants a replay of situations like the one from the
             beginning of November, when de Maiziere didn't know for hours
             whether the package that had arrived at the Chancellery
             contained actual explosives or was just a false alarm. Now, the
             threshold for sounding the alarm is already much lower.

             Bonded by Fear

             Of course, you can never be too sure. Over the last 12 months, a
             series of attacks concocted in the Afghan-Pakistani border
             region have been foiled in the West. For example, in May, a car
             bomb set in New York's Times Square by a man with ties to the
             Pakistani Taliban failed to properly detonate. In Copenhagen,
             al-Qaida had made plans to storm the offices of the
             Jyllands-Posten newspaper as revenge for its 2005 publishing of
             caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad. In October 2009, David
             Headley, an American citizen with Pakistani roots, was arrested
             after having already visited the newspaper's offices in order to
             scout them out before the planned attack. Other targets
             reportedly included the subway systems of New York City and
             Washington.

             On the other hand, absolute security is a pipe dream. For
             example, British authorities had even conducted rehearsals for
             how to respond to possible attacks. But, even so, when attacks
             claiming 56 lives (including those of four attackers) did strike
             London, on July 7, 2005, they were unable to prevent them.
             Likewise, US intelligence services had warned India a number of
             times that terrorists were planning attacks in Mumbai.

             The new situation in Germany has at least had one positive side
             effect: For the time being, the traditionally quarrelsome
             interior ministers from both the state and the federal levels
             have refrained from their usual bickering. Following informal
             talks held last Thursday in Hamburg, Minister Bruch of
             Rhineland-Palatinate noted that he had "never experienced such
             harmony within this group" that has apparently been bonded
             together by their shared fear.

             Translated from the German by Josh Ward

           --

           Sean Noonan

           Tactical Analyst

           Office: +1 512-279-9479

           Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

           Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

           www.stratfor.com

         --

         - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

         Marko Papic

         Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

         STRATFOR

         700 Lavaca Street - 900

         Austin, Texas

         78701 USA

         P: + 1-512-744-4094

         marko.papic@stratfor.com

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

     --

     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

     Marko Papic

     Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

     STRATFOR

     700 Lavaca Street - 900

     Austin, Texas

     78701 USA

     P: + 1-512-744-4094

     marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --

   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

   Marko Papic

   Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

   STRATFOR

   700 Lavaca Street - 900

   Austin, Texas

   78701 USA

   P: + 1-512-744-4094

   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-22 18:00:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1044278_re-discussion-germany-ct-the-story-behind-germany-s-terror.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1044308</id>
    <title>Re: wikileaks cablegate - disappearing cables
</title>
    <description>The Foggy-Bottom Bow-Ties have their panties in a knot over a specific
Iraq cable outed yesterday.  Not sure which one.  May be yanked. 

Reva Bhalla wrote:
&gt; ive only gone through a couple of them,b ut these dont even seem that
&gt; sensitive to warrant a disappearing act
&gt; On Dec 2, 2010, at 11:59 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:
&gt;
&gt;&gt; Good eye, Kevin. Also, for each of them that i pulled up, Google has
&gt;&gt; a cached copy available to load. 
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; On 12/2/10 12:56 PM, Kevin Stech wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt; By continuously mirroring the Cablegate website, it lets me do
&gt;&gt;&gt; certain things like monitor the timestamps of the cables very
&gt;&gt;&gt; closely. One anomaly this has turned up is a number of disappearing
&gt;&gt;&gt; cables. I haven’t tested each one yet, but I believe the following
&gt;&gt;&gt; cables to have been removed from the Cablegate website. Check for
&gt;&gt;&gt; yourself.
&gt;&gt;&gt;  
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10ROME173.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10STATE17263.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10BAKU134.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/01/10LONDON131.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/10/08RPODUBAI49.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/08/08MUSCAT565.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/12/08STATE134490.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/06/09ASHGABAT757.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/08/09KUWAIT760.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/04/09RPODUBAI177.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/09ANKARA1594.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/09BAGHDAD2992.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/01/09RIYADH181.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/09BAGHDAD3195.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/09DOHA728.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2006/04/06ABUDHABI1401.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2005/03/05TELAVIV1580.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/11/07STATE152317.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/11/07BAGHDAD3895.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/01/07TELAVIV64.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;  
&gt;&gt;&gt; You can view the backups of the original cables here.
&gt;&gt;&gt;  
&gt;&gt;&gt; https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10ROME173.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10STATE17263.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10BAKU134.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/01/10LONDON131.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/10/08RPODUBAI49.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/08/08MUSCAT565.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/12/08STATE134490.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/06/09ASHGABAT757.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/08/09KUWAIT760.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/04/09RPODUBAI177.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/09ANKARA1594.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/09BAGHDAD2992.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/01/09RIYADH181.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/09BAGHDAD3195.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/09DOHA728.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2006/04/06ABUDHABI1401.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2005/03/05TELAVIV1580.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/11/07STATE152317.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/11/07BAGHDAD3895.html
&gt;&gt;&gt; https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/01/07TELAVIV64.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;  
&gt;&gt;&gt; Kevin Stech
&gt;&gt;&gt; Research Director | STRATFOR
&gt;&gt;&gt; kevin.stech@stratfor.com &lt;mailto:kevin.stech@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; +1 (512) 744-4086
&gt;&gt;&gt;  
&gt;
</description>
    <date>2010-12-02 19:26:35</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1044308_re-wikileaks-cablegate-disappearing-cables-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1044330</id>
    <title>RE: [TACTICAL] Thought--Re: wikileaks cablegate - disappearing	cables
</title>
    <description>   That's reasonable

    

   From: Nate Hughes [mailto:hughes@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, December 02, 2010 12:56
   To: Tactical
   Cc: Kevin Stech; 'Sean Noonan'
   Subject: Re: [TACTICAL] Thought--Re: wikileaks cablegate - disappearing
   cables

    

   look, technically, if it's classified, it's classified. Inappropriate
   handling of it continues to be a legal issue. This is why in their letters
   to wikileaks, the USG can insist not only that he not publish it, but that
   he somehow return all property (this shit was all clearly written before
   the digital age).

   But it's also absurd. And it is important for Kevin to be doing what he's
   doing, in the event that something that is important does leak out and is
   retracted. We need to be able to know what that was.

   Get a password on it, send a note to Fred, Stick and Rodger and carry on
   until instructed otherwise.

   On 12/2/2010 1:51 PM, Kevin Stech wrote:

   If there are real legal concerns I can throw a password on it

    

   From: Sean Noonan [mailto:sean.noonan@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, December 02, 2010 12:46
   To: Kevin Stech; Tactical
   Subject: Thought--Re: wikileaks cablegate - disappearing cables

    

   Is the research website that hosts a copy of these cables public?  Could
   we get in trouble for storing classified information?

   I don't mean to be nitpicky, and you guys may have already addressed this,
   but I wanted to double check just in case. 

   It seems like no one will be charged with that--and sooo many other people
   are hosting it---but that doesn't make it legal either. 

   On 12/2/10 12:37 PM, Kevin Stech wrote:

 Was it this one?

  

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2005/03/05TELA

 VIV1580.html

  

  

 -----Original Message-----

 From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com

 [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On

 Behalf Of Fred Burton

 Sent: Thursday, December 02, 2010 12:33

 To: Analyst List

 Subject: Re: wikileaks cablegate - disappearing cables

  

  

   New response from Wiki server on a Mossad cable/briefing I pulled up

   on Day one..

  

  

  

   not found, overloaded or other issues ...

  

 We are sorry but we cannot answer your request at the moment.

  

 This may be any kind of error.

  

  

  

 Reva Bhalla wrote:

 ive only gone through a couple of them,b ut these dont even seem that

 sensitive to warrant a disappearing act On Dec 2, 2010, at 11:59 AM,

 Karen Hooper wrote:

  

 Good eye, Kevin. Also, for each of them that i pulled up, Google has

 a cached copy available to load.

  

  

  

 On 12/2/10 12:56 PM, Kevin Stech wrote:

 By continuously mirroring the Cablegate website, it lets me do

 certain things like monitor the timestamps of the cables very

 closely. One anomaly this has turned up is a number of disappearing

 cables. I haven't tested each one yet, but I believe the following

 cables to have been removed from the Cablegate website. Check for

 yourself.

  

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10ROME173.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10STATE17263.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10BAKU134.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/01/10LONDON131.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/10/08RPODUBAI49.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/08/08MUSCAT565.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/12/08STATE134490.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/06/09ASHGABAT757.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/08/09KUWAIT760.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/04/09RPODUBAI177.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/09ANKARA1594.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/09BAGHDAD2992.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/01/09RIYADH181.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/09BAGHDAD3195.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/09DOHA728.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2006/04/06ABUDHABI1401.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2005/03/05TELAVIV1580.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/11/07STATE152317.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/11/07BAGHDAD3895.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/01/07TELAVIV64.html

  

 You can view the backups of the original cables here.

  

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/

 10ROME173.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/

 10STATE17263.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/

 10BAKU134.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/01/

 10LONDON131.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/10/

 08RPODUBAI49.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/08/

 08MUSCAT565.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/12/

 08STATE134490.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/06/

 09ASHGABAT757.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/08/

 09KUWAIT760.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/04/

 09RPODUBAI177.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/

 09ANKARA1594.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/

 09BAGHDAD2992.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/01/

 09RIYADH181.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/

 09BAGHDAD3195.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/

 09DOHA728.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2006/04/

 06ABUDHABI1401.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2005/03/

 05TELAVIV1580.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/11/

 07STATE152317.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/11/

 07BAGHDAD3895.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/01/

 07TELAVIV64.html

  

 Kevin Stech

 Research Director | STRATFOR

 kevin.stech@stratfor.com &lt;mailto:kevin.stech@stratfor.com&gt;

 +1 (512) 744-4086

  

  

    

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-02 19:56:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 03:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1044330_re-tactical-thought-re-wikileaks-cablegate-disappearing.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1044386</id>
    <title>[Fwd: Re: [TACTICAL] Thought--Re: wikileaks cablegate - disappearingcables]
</title>
    <description>FYI

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: 	Re: [TACTICAL] Thought--Re: wikileaks cablegate -
disappearingcables
Date: 	Thu, 2 Dec 2010 19:44:06 +0000
From: 	Stephen M. Feldhaus &lt;sf@feldhauslaw.com&gt;
Reply-To: 	sf@feldhauslaw.com
To: 	Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;, sean.noonan@stratfor.com
CC: 	Mr. George Friedman &lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
References:
&lt;09c801cb924a$41645240$c42cf6c0$@stratfor.com&gt;&lt;4CF7DE6C.5050603@stratfor.com&gt;&lt;91BAC3A3-6793-4E91-BA61-00ABB532EB67@stratfor.com&gt;&lt;4CF7E66A.6010908@stratfor.com&gt;&lt;0a9a01cb9250$00d68990$02839cb0$@stratfor.com&gt;&lt;4CF7E972.8000702@stratfor.com&gt;&lt;0ab301cb9251$e7be8460$b73b8d20$@stratfor.com&gt;&lt;4CF7EB34.7030101@stratfor.com&gt;




Just got out of a meeting and saw this. We definitely should not be making these available to the public, or to our subscribers. I am not worried about our maintaining a database of the documents for our own use. 

Best,

Steve
-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
Date: Thu, 2 Dec 2010 13:53:40 
To: Tactical&lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
Cc: 'Sean Noonan'&lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;; Feldhaus, Stephen&lt;sf@feldhauslaw.com&gt;
Subject: Re: [TACTICAL] Thought--Re: wikileaks cablegate - disappearing
	cables

Steve - Thoughts?  Thanks

Kevin Stech wrote:
&gt;
&gt; If there are real legal concerns I can throw a password on it
&gt;
&gt;  
&gt;
&gt; *From:* Sean Noonan [mailto:sean.noonan@stratfor.com]
&gt; *Sent:* Thursday, December 02, 2010 12:46
&gt; *To:* Kevin Stech; Tactical
&gt; *Subject:* Thought--Re: wikileaks cablegate - disappearing cables
&gt;
&gt;  
&gt;
&gt; Is the research website that hosts a copy of these cables public? 
&gt; Could we get in trouble for storing classified information?
&gt;
&gt; I don't mean to be nitpicky, and you guys may have already addressed
&gt; this, but I wanted to double check just in case. 
&gt;
&gt; It seems like no one will be charged with that--and sooo many other
&gt; people are hosting it---but that doesn't make it legal either. 
&gt;
&gt; On 12/2/10 12:37 PM, Kevin Stech wrote:
&gt;
&gt; Was it this one?
&gt;  
&gt; https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2005/03/05TELA
&gt; VIV1580.html
&gt;  
&gt;  
&gt;
&gt;     -----Original Message-----
&gt;
&gt;     From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com &lt;mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;
&gt; [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On
&gt;
&gt;     Behalf Of Fred Burton
&gt;
&gt;     Sent: Thursday, December 02, 2010 12:33
&gt;
&gt;     To: Analyst List
&gt;
&gt;     Subject: Re: wikileaks cablegate - disappearing cables
&gt;
&gt;      
&gt;
&gt;      
&gt;
&gt;       New response from Wiki server on a Mossad cable/briefing I pulled up
&gt;
&gt;       on Day one..
&gt;
&gt;      
&gt;
&gt;      
&gt;
&gt;      
&gt;
&gt;       not found, overloaded or other issues ...
&gt;
&gt;      
&gt;
&gt;     We are sorry but we cannot answer your request at the moment.
&gt;
&gt;      
&gt;
&gt;     This may be any kind of error.
&gt;
&gt;      
&gt;
&gt;      
&gt;
&gt;      
&gt;
&gt;     Reva Bhalla wrote:
&gt;
&gt;         ive only gone through a couple of them,b ut these dont even seem that
&gt;
&gt;         sensitive to warrant a disappearing act On Dec 2, 2010, at 11:59 AM,
&gt;
&gt;         Karen Hooper wrote:
&gt;
&gt;          
&gt;
&gt;             Good eye, Kevin. Also, for each of them that i pulled up, Google has
&gt;
&gt;             a cached copy available to load.
&gt;
&gt;              
&gt;
&gt;              
&gt;
&gt;              
&gt;
&gt;             On 12/2/10 12:56 PM, Kevin Stech wrote:
&gt;
&gt;                 By continuously mirroring the Cablegate website, it lets me do
&gt;
&gt;                 certain things like monitor the timestamps of the cables very
&gt;
&gt;                 closely. One anomaly this has turned up is a number of disappearing
&gt;
&gt;                 cables. I haven't tested each one yet, but I believe the following
&gt;
&gt;                 cables to have been removed from the Cablegate website. Check for
&gt;
&gt;                 yourself.
&gt;
&gt;                  
&gt;
&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10ROME173.html
&gt;
&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10STATE17263.html
&gt;
&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10BAKU134.html
&gt;
&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/01/10LONDON131.html
&gt;
&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/10/08RPODUBAI49.html
&gt;
&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/08/08MUSCAT565.html
&gt;
&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/12/08STATE134490.html
&gt;
&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/06/09ASHGABAT757.html
&gt;
&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/08/09KUWAIT760.html
&gt;
&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/04/09RPODUBAI177.html
&gt;
&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/09ANKARA1594.html
&gt;
&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/09BAGHDAD2992.html
&gt;
&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/01/09RIYADH181.html
&gt;
&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/09BAGHDAD3195.html
&gt;
&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/09DOHA728.html
&gt;
&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2006/04/06ABUDHABI1401.html
&gt;
&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2005/03/05TELAVIV1580.html
&gt;
&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/11/07STATE152317.html
&gt;
&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/11/07BAGHDAD3895.html
&gt;
&gt;                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/01/07TELAVIV64.html
&gt;
&gt;                  
&gt;
&gt;                 You can view the backups of the original cables here.
&gt;
&gt;                  
&gt;
&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/
&gt;
&gt;                 10ROME173.html
&gt;
&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/
&gt;
&gt;                 10STATE17263.html
&gt;
&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/
&gt;
&gt;                 10BAKU134.html
&gt;
&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/01/
&gt;
&gt;                 10LONDON131.html
&gt;
&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/10/
&gt;
&gt;                 08RPODUBAI49.html
&gt;
&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/08/
&gt;
&gt;                 08MUSCAT565.html
&gt;
&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/12/
&gt;
&gt;                 08STATE134490.html
&gt;
&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/06/
&gt;
&gt;                 09ASHGABAT757.html
&gt;
&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/08/
&gt;
&gt;                 09KUWAIT760.html
&gt;
&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/04/
&gt;
&gt;                 09RPODUBAI177.html
&gt;
&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/
&gt;
&gt;                 09ANKARA1594.html
&gt;
&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/
&gt;
&gt;                 09BAGHDAD2992.html
&gt;
&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/01/
&gt;
&gt;                 09RIYADH181.html
&gt;
&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/
&gt;
&gt;                 09BAGHDAD3195.html
&gt;
&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/
&gt;
&gt;                 09DOHA728.html
&gt;
&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2006/04/
&gt;
&gt;                 06ABUDHABI1401.html
&gt;
&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2005/03/
&gt;
&gt;                 05TELAVIV1580.html
&gt;
&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/11/
&gt;
&gt;                 07STATE152317.html
&gt;
&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/11/
&gt;
&gt;                 07BAGHDAD3895.html
&gt;
&gt;                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/01/
&gt;
&gt;                 07TELAVIV64.html
&gt;
&gt;                  
&gt;
&gt;                 Kevin Stech
&gt;
&gt;                 Research Director | STRATFOR
&gt;
&gt;                 kevin.stech@stratfor.com &lt;mailto:kevin.stech@stratfor.com&gt; &lt;mailto:kevin.stech@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;
&gt;                 +1 (512) 744-4086
&gt;
&gt;                  
&gt;
&gt;          
&gt;
&gt;  
&gt;
&gt; -- 
&gt;
&gt; Sean Noonan
&gt;
&gt; Tactical Analyst
&gt;
&gt; Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt;
&gt; Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt;
&gt; Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt;
&gt; www.stratfor.com &lt;http://www.stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;
</description>
    <date>2010-12-02 22:49:44</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1044386_-fwd-re-tactical-thought-re-wikileaks-cablegate.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>rbaker@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kevin.stech@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1049005</id>
    <title>Re: Counterterrorism: Shifting from the Who to the How
</title>
    <description>   i sort of see that. but by the time you're talking about journalists and
   'like at airports' it sort of seems like he's talking about killing
   westerners whenever whereever and however you can...

   scott stewart wrote:

     Um, well he kept the target set fairly confined. Tyrants, ministers,
     princes, spooks, crusaders, journalists.....
      
     It was the attackers and types of attacks he attempts to expand.
      
      
      

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Nate Hughes
     Sent: Tuesday, November 03, 2009 4:38 PM
     To: Analyst List
     Subject: Re: Counterterrorism: Shifting from the Who to the How
     one overall thought:

     you're talking about anything from a coffee shop to a line at the DMV
     being a potential target. While you suggest broader and more extensive
     countersurveillance and ied training and awareness, that's really only
     great in an ideal world. One of the most important things al-Wuhayshi
     does here is expand the target set dramatically. You can't defend
     everything, especially in this sort of scenario. While it may not be a
     strategic threat, any police department can only really expand its
     counter-surveillance capabilities and awareness so far. It can give some
     basic classes to most of its officers, perhaps, but it cannot provide
     extensive operational experience and training to many more officers than
     it already does.

     So you still have to make choices about what you defend, and what
     al-Wuhayshi has done is run around that problem and attempted to make
     everything at risk. One point is that you can't actually defend
     everything -- and you can't attempt to dramatically expand protection
     without altering how society functions.

     So in the other sense, al-Wuhayshi just reminds us that we're all
     vulnerable all the time, but a little individual situational awareness
     can sometimes go a long way.

     comments within.

       Counterterrorism: Shifting from the Who to the How

       In the eleventh edition of the online magazine [link
       http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/yemen_al_qaedas_resurgence ] Sada
       al-Malahim (The Echo of Battle) which was released to jihadist Web
       sites last week, the leader of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
       (AQAP) [ link
       http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090128_al_qaeda_arabian_peninsula_desperation_or_new_life
       ] Nasir al-Wuhayshi, wrote an article in which he called for jihadists
       to conduct simple attacks against a variety of targets. The targets he
       mentioned included "any tyrant, intelligence den, prince," or
       "minister" (referring to the governments in the Muslim world like
       Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Yemen), and "any crusaders whenever you find
       one of them, like at the airports of the crusader western countries
       that participate in the wars against Muslim, or their living
       compounds, trains etc." (obviously referring to the U.S. and Europe.
       plenty of infidel housing compounds in the ME -- especially KSA, yes?)

       Al-Wuhayshi, an ethnic Yemeni who spent time in Afghanistan serving as
       a lieutenant under Osama Bin Laden, noted these simple attacks could
       be conducted using readily available weapons, such as knives, clubs or
       small improvised explosive devices (IEDs). According to al-Wuhayshi,
       jihadists "don't need to conduct a big effort or spend a lot of money
       to manufacture 10 grams of explosive material more or less" and that
       they should not "waste a long time finding the materials, because you
       can find all these in your mother's kitchen, or at your hand or in any
       city you are in." 

       The fact that these instructions were given by al-Wuhayshi in an
       internet magazine distributed via jihadist chat rooms and not some
       secret meeting with his operational staff demonstrates that they are
       clearly intended to reach [link
       http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090805_paying_attention_grassroots ]
       grassroots jihadists - and are not intended just as internal guidance
       for AQAP members. Al- Wuhayshi was encouraging grassroots jihadists to
       "do what Abu al-Khair did" referring to [link
       http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090902_aqap_paradigm_shifts_and_lessons_learned 
       ] AQAP member Abdullah Hassan Taleh al-Asiri, the Saudi suicide bomber
       who attempted to kill Saudi Deputy Interior Minister Prince Mohammed
       bin Nayef with a small IED on August 28, 2009.

       The most concerning aspect of al-Wuhayshi's statement is that it is
       largely true. Improvised explosive mixtures are relatively easy to
       make from readily available chemicals -- if a person has the proper
       training -- and attacks using small IEDs or other readily attainable
       weapons such as knives or clubs [link
       http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090603_lone_wolf_lessons ] (or
       firearms in the U.S.) are indeed quite simple to conduct.

        even by amateurs (and indeed, targeting diffuse and non-descript soft
       targets with little pre-operational surveillance leaves little room
       for detection)

       As STRATFOR has [link
       http://www.stratfor.com/al_qaeda_2007_continuing_devolution ] noted
       for several years now, with al Qaeda's structure under continual
       attack and no regional al Qaeda franchise groups in the Western
       Hemisphere, the most pressing jihadist threat to the U.S. homeland at
       present stems from grassroots jihadists and not the al Qaeda core.
       This trend has been borne out by the large number of plots and arrests
       over the past several years, to include several so far in 2009. The
       grassroots have likewise proven to pose a critical threat to Europe.

       From a counterterrorism perspective, the problem posed by grassroots
       operatives is that unless they somehow self-identify [link
       http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090521_u_s_foiled_plot_and_very_real_grassroots_risk
       ] by contacting a government informant or other person who reports
       them to authorities, or they [link
       http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20091021_curious_case_adlene_hicheur ]
       conduct electronic correspondence with a person or organization under
       government scrutiny, they are very difficult to detect.

       The threat posed by grassroots operatives, and the difficulty
       identifying them, highlight the need for counterterrorism programs to
       adopt a proactive, protective intelligence approach to the problem --
       an approach that focuses on "the how" of militant attacks instead of
       just "the who".

       the saving grace of these grassroots operatives is that their
       capability and resources are far more limited. though they may aspire
       to more advanced attacks like coordinated highjackings of airliners
       and can certainly get lucky and cause damage, they are far more likely
       than trained, experienced and hardened operatives to get caught,
       blunder or otherwise fail when attempting to reach beyond their
       training (which they have none) and capability. Maybe cite richard
       reade's shoe bombing fiasco?
        

       The How

       In the traditional, reactive, approach to counterterrorism, where
       authorities respond to a crime scene after a terrorist attack in order
       to find and arrest the militants responsible for the attack, it is
       customary to focus on "the who" behind the attack. Indeed, in this
       traditional approach, the only time much emphasis is placed on "the
       how" is either in an effort to identify a suspect when the attack was
       conducted by an unknown actor, or to prove that a particular suspect
       was responsible for the attack during a trial. Beyond these limited
       purposes, not much attention is paid to "the how."

       Now, catching and prosecuting those who commit terrorist attacks is a
       good thing, but from our perspective what is even more important is
       preventing the attack in the first place, and prevention requires a
       proactive approach.  In order to pursue such a proactive approach to
       counterterrorism, "the how" becomes the critical question. By studying
       and understanding how attacks are conducted, authorities can then
       establish systems to proactively identify early indicators that attack
       planning is occurring. People involved in that attack planning can
       then be focused on, identified, and action can be taken prevent them
       from conducting the attack(s) they are plotting. This means that
       focusing on "the how" can lead to previously unidentified suspects -
       those who do not self-identify.

       How is the primary question addressed by [link
       http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/proactive_tool_protective_intelligence

        ] protective intelligence, which is, at its core, a process for
       proactively identifying and assessing potential threats.  Focusing on
       "the how" then, requires protective intelligence practitioners to
       carefully study the tactics, tradecraft and behavior associated with
       militant actors involved in terrorist attacks in order to search for
       and identify those behaviors before an attack takes place. Many of
       these behaviors are not by themselves criminal in nature, visiting a
       public building and observing the security measures or standing on the
       street to watch the arrival of a VIP at her office are not illegal,
       but they can be indicators that an attack is being plotted, and in the
       grand scheme of things those legal activities could turn out to be
       overt actions in furtherance of an illegal conspiracy to conduct the
       attack - but even in a case where a conspiracy cannot be proves, steps
       can be still taken to prevent a potential attack and to mitigate the
       risk posed by the people involved.  

       Protective intelligence is based on the fact that attacks don't just
       happen out of the blue. well, some illconceived ones happen with
       almost no pre-op surveillance. need to mention that they do happen.
       Pre-op surveillance/intel and general sit. awareness doesn't get you
       everything, but done well it can significantly reduce attacks that
       actually are carried out and their success, right?  Rather, every
       terrorist attack follows a [link
       http://www.stratfor.com/themes/terrorist_attack_cycle ] discernable
       attack cycle, and there are critical points in that cycle where a plot
       is most likely to be detected by an outside observer and the critical
       activity that happens at these points can then be looked for. Among
       the most vulnerable times of in the attack cycle are while
       surveillance is being conducted and weapons are being acquired, but
       there are other, less obvious points where such activity can be
       spotted by someone who is looking for it.

       In order to really understand "the how", protective intelligence
       practitioners cannot just simply acknowledge that something like
       surveillance occurs. Rather they must turn a powerful lens on topics
       like pre-operational surveillance in order to study them at a granular
       level so that it can be studied and fully understood.  Dissecting an
       activity like [link
       http://www.stratfor.com/themes/surveillance_and_countersurveillance ]
       preoperational surveillance requires not only examining subjects such
       as the demeanor demonstrated by those conducting surveillance prior to
       an attack and the specific methods [link
       http://www.stratfor.com/physical_surveillance_art_blending ] and cover
       for action and cover for status utilized, but identifying certain
       times where surveillance is most likely to happen and certain optimal
       vantage points (called perches in surveillance jargon) where a
       surveillant is most likely to operate from, if he is seeking to
       surveil a specific facility or event.  This type of complex
       understanding of the topic of surveillance can then be used to help
       focus human or technological countersurveillance efforts to where they
       can be most effective.

       Unfortunately, many counterterrorism investigators are so focused on
       "the who" that they do not focus on collecting this type of granular
       "how" information. We have talked to law enforcement officers
       responsible for investigating some recent grassroots plots, and when
       asked to describe specifically how the suspects had conducted
       surveillance on the intended targets, we were met with blank stares.
       They simply had not paid attention to this type of detail. But this is
       not really the fault of these investigators. Nobody had ever explained
       to them why paying attention to and recording this type of detail was
       important. Additionally, it takes specific training and a practiced
       eye to pick out these details without glossing over them. For example,
       one must first conduct a lot of surveillance in order to become a
       first-rate countersurveillance officer. The experience of conducting
       surveillance allows you to understand what a surveillant must do and
       where he must be in order to conduct surveillance of a specific person
       or place.

       Similarly, in order to truly understand the tradecraft required to
       build an IED and the specific steps that a militant needs to complete
       in order to do so, it helps to go to an IED school where the
       investigator learns the tradecraft firsthand. Militant actors can and
       do change over time. New groups, causes and ideologies emerge, and
       specific militants can be killed, captured or retire. But the tactical
       steps that a militant must complete in order to conduct an attack are
       constant. It doesn't matter if the person planning an attack is a
       radical environmentalist, a grassroots jihadist or a member of the al
       Qaeda core, while these diverse actors will exhibit different levels
       of professionalism in regard to terrorist tradecraft, they still must
       follow essentially the same steps, accomplish the same tasks and
       operate in the same areas.  Knowing this allows protective
       intelligence to guard against different levels of threats.  

       Of course tactics can be change and be perfected and new tactics can
       be developed -- and technology can emerge (like cell phones and Google
       earth) -- which can alter the way in which some of these activities
       are conducted, or the time it takes to do so. However possessing a
       profound knowledge of the tradecraft and behaviors needed to execute
       the tactics allows protective intelligence practitioners to respond to
       such changes and even alter how they operate. Technology can also help
       the protective intelligence forces in their mission. There are tools
       such as Trapwire that can be focused on critical areas and that can
       help law enforcement and security forces cut through the fog of noise
       and activity to help identify things like hostile surveillance
       occurring in those critical areas identified by protective
       intelligence. These technological tools can help turn the tables on
       the unknown "who" by focusing on "the how". They will likely never
       replace human observation and experience, but they are valuable aids
       to human perception.

        

       Of course protective intelligence does not have to be the sole
       providence of the authorities. Corporate security managers and private
       security contractors can also apply the principles to protecting the
       people and facilities in their charge.

       Keeping it Simple?

       Al-Wuhayshi is right that it is not difficult to construct improvised
       explosives from a wide range of household chemicals such as peroxide
       and acetone or chlorine and brake fluid. He is also correct that some
       of those explosive mixtures can be concealed in objects ranging from
       electronic items to picture frames or can be employed in forms ranging
       from hand grenades to suicide vests. Likewise, low-level attacks can
       also be conducted using knives, clubs and guns.

       However -- and this is an important however -- if a militant is going
       to conduct such an attack against some of the targets al-Wuhayshi
       suggests, such as an airports, a train, or a specific leader or media
       personality, complexity creeps into the picture, and the attack
       planning cycle must be followed. The prospective attacker must observe
       and quantify the target, construct a plan to attack it and then
       execute that plan. It is the demands of conducting this process that
       will cause even an attacker previously unknown to the authorities to
       place himself in a position where he is vulnerable to being
       identified. If the attacker does this while there are people watching
       for him, he will likely be seen. If he does this while there are no
       watchers, there is little chance that he will become a "who" until
       after the attack has been completed. 

        
        
        
       Scott Stewart
       STRATFOR
       Office: 814 967 4046
       Cell: 814 573 8297
       scott.stewart@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com
        
</description>
    <date>2009-11-03 23:02:32</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1049005_re-counterterrorism-shifting-from-the-who-to-the-how-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1050076</id>
    <title>DISCUSSION - US focus on Georgia and Ukraine ... 
</title>
    <description>   INSIGHT:
    
   This is not Vershbow's only move. He will be tossing himself back and
   forth for the next few months between Georgia and Ukraine. He will be in
   Georgia October 19-20 and then in Ukraine in early November and Georgia in
   late November and then back again to both in December.
    
   In Georgia, Vershbow will be coordinating an expansion of US training of
   Georgian troops. It will most likely not just be defensive anymore.
    
   In Ukraine, yes, there was the BMD announcement that Kiev did not even
   know about. But the bigger concern is that under certain Western nudging,
   Ukraine will resume weapon transfers to Georgia.
    
   Vershbow's primary focus will now be on Georgia and Ukraine, but we all
   know that there is an expiration date on the Ukraine part of this
   equation.
    
   LG discussion....
    
   What the source means by the expiration date is that Vershbow can actually
   get some cool things done in Ukraine via Yushchenko. The rest of the
   political sphere - Timo, Yanu, parliament, cabinet, etc-all won't work
   with Vershbow. But Yushchenko can.
    
   Though Yushchenko has 2% approval rating, his party is split into half a
   dozen parts and he LITERALLY has no friends.... He does still control 3
   key sectors in Ukraine as President: SBU, military industrial and
   military. Yushchenko can make decisions in those sectors without having to
   consult with anyone else for the most part.
    
   So Vershbow and Yushchenko could  in theory pull off some incredible shit
   in Ukraine and Georgia...... but there is a time limit since Yushchenko
   will be out of office in 3 months.....
    
   The clock is ticking.  
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-10-09 17:52:47</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1050076_discussion-us-focus-on-georgia-and-ukraine-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1050427</id>
    <title>Re: Assange is off the hook...
</title>
    <description>   It is possible to revoke citizenship on the grounds of being a dickhead
   except in Australia, where all of Queensland and a good part of South
   Australia, along with all of Sydney Uni would lose their passports.

   On 12/05/10 22:42 , Chris Farnham wrote:

     Is it possible to revoke some one's citizenship on the grounds of them
     being a total dickhead? 
     I don't care about the other leaks but the ones he has made that
     potentially damage Australian interests upset me. 
     If I thought I could switch this dickhead off without getting done I
     don't think I'd have too much of a problem.
     BTW, close family friend in Sweden who knows the girl that is pressing
     charges tells me that there is absolutely nothing behind it other than
     prosecutors that are looking to make a name for themselves. My friend
     speaks rather disparagingly about the girl who is claiming molestation.
     I also think the whole rape thing is incorrect for if I remember
     correctly rape was never the charge. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 12:23:03 PM
     Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

     What a douche.

     And I just want to be clear here... I have no problem with the leaks. I
     think they're great. And I think it may be good on some level to have
     stuff like this come out once in a while. What I can't stand is A) his
     ego trip and B) his clear anti-Americanism. Take the time to read the
     intro to Cablegate when you get the chance. This guy hates America more
     than OBL.

     What I love, however, is how nobody in the U.S. is mad about the cables.
     Hell, I have a better opinion of State Department diplomats now than I
     did before the cables. They actually said a few smart things here and
     there. I actually gave them a tip of my hat.

     I want to see him try to take on the Russians. He'd be going bald in an
     Iceland hospital within days.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 10:11:39 PM
     Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

     should we change our Stratfor motto now?
     Predictive, insightful intelligence...in a post-Cablegate world.
     On Dec 5, 2010, at 10:05 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

       This guy needs to take pills for his ego:

      He suggested, not for the first time, that he believes his document
      service has had a profound effect on world history: "I believe geopolitics
      will be separated into pre- and post-Cablegate phases."

       Also, I have a question about this part (this is Assange's lawyer
       saying how Wikileaks would release full versions of all files --
       including names of spies, etc. -- if harmed):

      WikiLeaks, Mr. Stephens said, has "been subject to cyberattacks and
      censorship around the world and they need to protect themselves ... This
      is what they believe to be a thermonuclear device in the information age."

       Let's say the following scenario happens. Assange is arrested and
       extradicted to Sweden to face rape charges. Wikileaks releases the
       password to the insurance files. Would he not then be directly
       endangering U.S. and other country intelligence professionals? Would
       it not then be possible to prosecute him for espionage? 

       -- 
       - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
       Marko Papic
       Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
       STRATFOR
       700 Lavaca Street - 900
       Austin, Texas
       78701 USA
       P: + 1-512-744-4094
       marko.papic@stratfor.com

     --
     Marko Papic

     STRATFOR Analyst
     C: + 1-512-905-3091
     marko.papic@stratfor.com

     --

     Chris Farnham
     Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
     China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
     Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

   --

   George Friedman

   Founder and CEO

   Stratfor

   700 Lavaca Street

   Suite 900

   Austin, Texas 78701

   Phone  512-744-4319

   Fax  512-744-4334
</description>
    <date>2010-12-06 05:53:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1050427_re-assange-is-off-the-hook-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1051088</id>
    <title>FBI SAIC comment on WikiLeaks (internal use only pls) 
</title>
    <description>
Hey Fred - Just got back into town to reply to your question. 

Looks pretty bad - then again, nobody knew better than us how those
State Department people write - so nobody should be surprised at some of it.
</description>
    <date>2010-11-29 16:23:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1051088_fbi-saic-comment-on-wikileaks-internal-use-only-pls-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1051844</id>
    <title>Re: Assange is off the hook...
</title>
    <description>   And yeah, his theoretical argument -- one he bases everything off of -- is
   that if money is being spent to keep something secret, then it is evil.

   I don't think I've heard a more self-righteous, sweeping statement than
   that.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 11:47:05 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   Yeah but my point was that the common folk are not outraged except at
   Assange. He wanted people to be outraged at the government. Nobody is, in
   fact most people think the diplomats are doing their job. That's a change
   considering what low opinion most people have of diplomats.

   And as for my comment about wikileaks, I was being far more philosophical
   than the question of whether it is illegal or not. From time to time, you
   got to leak some stuff... it's just the way it is. It's good for the
   country. Doesn't feel nice, but it's good. Like jogging.

   But my overall point here is that Assange is just an anti-American prick
   who things he is going to leak some stuff that leaves the American people
   outraged. What an idiot. As Stewart said the other night, this is the
   country that sold weapons to Iran so that we can fund right-wing
   guerrillas in Central America. And this idiot thought we would be outraged
   by someone calling Merkel "risk-averse".

   He is a fucking idiot.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 11:42:17 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   Queensland= Aussie Texas.  Y'all have an attitude that Alabamans don't. 

   Last I saw Assange was charged with sexual assault, not rape.  That's
   different in the US, obviously, but no idea about Sweden. 

   And Marko, I beg to differ.  The leaks are wrong.  Are they seriously
   damaging? No, but that doesn't make it OK.  Serious laws were violated
   here, and the only reason they have some freedom of movement is because
   Wikileaks (presumably) is not state-sponsored and claim to be some sort of
   journalism.  But that is BS, these documents were stolen and published
   illegally.  We can go into the whole argument of overclassification- and
   be right to say that most of this stuff should no longer be classified. 
   That does not change the fact that the documents were classified.  Some
   sort of civil disobedience is not going to change the USG's culture of
   secrecy.  That idea by Assange is just ludicrous.  This is just an
   NGO-version of espionage and everyone involved should be arrested and
   tried accordingly (and disrupted if we can't get them to court).

   What Matt said about a large number of the American right being pretty
   pissed off about these is also true.  Assange has been called a terrorist
   many times, I think Palin wanted to hunt him down.   

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Meredith Friedman" &lt;mfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 12:21:43 AM
   Subject: RE: Assange is off the hook...

   The Landsdowne Hotel and the pub crawls...but I totally agree with your
   view on Queensland!!

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Chris Farnham
   Sent: Sunday, December 05, 2010 11:17 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...
   Oh the teaching is still first rate and turned me in to the intellectual
   Adonis that I am. Was just that the majority of the company there sucked.
   Nestled between Glebe and Newtown since their gentrification hasn't
   helped, I don't think. Thank god for the Landsdowne Hotel!!

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Meredith Friedman" &lt;mfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 1:09:42 PM
   Subject: RE: Assange is off the hook...

   I am a proud alumnus of Sydney Uni thank you very much. But it was much
   better back then....

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Chris Farnham
   Sent: Sunday, December 05, 2010 11:07 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...
   If you think you're going to get any argument out of me on Usyd you're
   going to be disappointed. 
   The place was full of left wing socialist wankers or college boy, Aviator
   wearing, popped collar rich kids. 
   Going to hazard a guess that Assange may also have studied there as well.
   Queensland is Australia's version of Alabama, only with better beaches. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "George Friedman" &lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 12:53:55 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   It is possible to revoke citizenship on the grounds of being a dickhead
   except in Australia, where all of Queensland and a good part of South
   Australia, along with all of Sydney Uni would lose their passports.

   On 12/05/10 22:42 , Chris Farnham wrote:

     Is it possible to revoke some one's citizenship on the grounds of them
     being a total dickhead? 
     I don't care about the other leaks but the ones he has made that
     potentially damage Australian interests upset me. 
     If I thought I could switch this dickhead off without getting done I
     don't think I'd have too much of a problem.
     BTW, close family friend in Sweden who knows the girl that is pressing
     charges tells me that there is absolutely nothing behind it other than
     prosecutors that are looking to make a name for themselves. My friend
     speaks rather disparagingly about the girl who is claiming molestation.
     I also think the whole rape thing is incorrect for if I remember
     correctly rape was never the charge. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 12:23:03 PM
     Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

     What a douche.

     And I just want to be clear here... I have no problem with the leaks. I
     think they're great. And I think it may be good on some level to have
     stuff like this come out once in a while. What I can't stand is A) his
     ego trip and B) his clear anti-Americanism. Take the time to read the
     intro to Cablegate when you get the chance. This guy hates America more
     than OBL.

     What I love, however, is how nobody in the U.S. is mad about the cables.
     Hell, I have a better opinion of State Department diplomats now than I
     did before the cables. They actually said a few smart things here and
     there. I actually gave them a tip of my hat.

     I want to see him try to take on the Russians. He'd be going bald in an
     Iceland hospital within days.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 10:11:39 PM
     Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

     should we change our Stratfor motto now?
     Predictive, insightful intelligence...in a post-Cablegate world.
     On Dec 5, 2010, at 10:05 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

       This guy needs to take pills for his ego:

      He suggested, not for the first time, that he believes his document
      service has had a profound effect on world history: a**I believe
      geopolitics will be separated into pre- and post-Cablegate phases.a**

       Also, I have a question about this part (this is Assange's lawyer
       saying how Wikileaks would release full versions of all files --
       including names of spies, etc. -- if harmed):

      WikiLeaks, Mr. Stephens said, has a**been subject to cyberattacks and
      censorship around the world and they need to protect themselves ... This
      is what they believe to be a thermonuclear device in the information
      age.a**

       Let's say the following scenario happens. Assange is arrested and
       extradicted to Sweden to face rape charges. Wikileaks releases the
       password to the insurance files. Would he not then be directly
       endangering U.S. and other country intelligence professionals? Would
       it not then be possible to prosecute him for espionage? 

       -- 
       - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
       Marko Papic
       Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
       STRATFOR
       700 Lavaca Street - 900
       Austin, Texas
       78701 USA
       P: + 1-512-744-4094
       marko.papic@stratfor.com

     --
     Marko Papic

     STRATFOR Analyst
     C: + 1-512-905-3091
     marko.papic@stratfor.com

     --

     Chris Farnham
     Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
     China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
     Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

   --

   George Friedman

   Founder and CEO

   Stratfor

   700 Lavaca Street

   Suite 900

   Austin, Texas 78701

   Phone  512-744-4319

   Fax  512-744-4334

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   Office: +1 512-279-9479
   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-06 06:49:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1051844_re-assange-is-off-the-hook-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1052371</id>
    <title>Re: G3 - ROMANIA/MOLDOVA - Moldova may reunite with Romania
	in	next25years - Basescu
</title>
    <description>   Well good. According to antonio, his best buddy said on tv that I'm an ex
   cia agent on a fat pension and saying this to cause trouble. I wonder if I
   can apply to be basecu's new best buddy. We could dtink beer and hunt
   ducks together.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Bayless Parsley &lt;bayless.parsley@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Tue, 30 Nov 2010 14:07:54 -0600 (CST)
   To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: G3 - ROMANIA/MOLDOVA - Moldova may reunite with Romania in
   next25 years - Basescu
   Well judging by Basescu's comments in this article, sounds like his head
   is pretty far out of his ass. That's what he's predicting will happen
   within a generation.

   On 11/30/10 2:01 PM, George Friedman wrote:

     Of course moldova will join romania. The alternative is the russians
     coming back the the prut and threatening the mouth of the danube. Those
     idiots in bucharest have to take their heads out of their asses.

     But don't quote me on that.

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Lauren Goodrich &lt;lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: Tue, 30 Nov 2010 09:56:08 -0600 (CST)
     To: &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: G3 - ROMANIA/MOLDOVA - Moldova may reunite with Romania in
     next 25 years - Basescu
     Basescu has been pretty flirty with the concept of swallowing Moldova.

     On 11/30/10 9:54 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

       wait hold up

       did he actually say that Moldove will "reunite" with Romania as in
       become subsumed by Romania?

       or that Moldova would become part of the EU, and therefore they'd be
       reunited that way?

       obviously a much bigger deal if it's the former

       On 11/30/10 9:49 AM, Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

         Original interview published online today - I can't help wondering
         if he read George's piece on MD... 
         http://www.romanialibera.ro/opinii/interviuri/rusia-are-o-ostilitate-fata-de-romania-207830.html
         He said that in the next 25 yrs Romania and Moldova could unite if
         the Romanians and Moldovans will want this.
         Moldova may reunite with Romania in next 25 years - Basescu
         http://en.rian.ru/world/20101130/161565516.html
          

         17:51 30/11/2010

         CHISINAU, November 30 (RIA Novosti) - Romanian President Traian
         Basescu said on Tuesday that Moldova may become part of Romania
         again in the next 25 years.
         Romania and Moldova sealed a long-awaited border treaty on November
         8, setting the stage for closer cooperation between the two
         neighbors.
         "In the next 25 years Romania and Moldova could be united again,"
         Basescu said in an article published on Monday in Romanian newspaper
         Romania Libera.
         "EU borders will extend to the Dnestr River, and the democratic
         development in the region will be an incentive for other countries,
         such as Ukraine, to join the EU," the president said. "The Balkans
         will become part of the EU and NATO within 25 years."

         The Romanian-Moldovan border treaty deals with a number of technical
         issues, such as the marking of the 681 km border, joint construction
         projects, joint use of water resources, infrastructure and
         communication installations, as well as border maintenance and
         surveillance.

         Moldova was part of Romania until it was annexed by the Soviet Union
         in 1940. It declared independence in 1991 after the collapse of the
         Soviet Union.

         The ex-Soviet state was the only neighboring country with which
         Bucharest had not signed such an agreement. Romania hopes to join 25
         other European nations in the visa-free Schengen area in March 2011,
         when its border with Moldova will also become part of the EU
         external border.

          

     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     STRATFOR
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-30 21:11:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1052371_re-g3-romania-moldova-moldova-may-reunite-with-romania-in.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1052655</id>
    <title>Re: Info - Wiki Founder
</title>
    <description>   I think that timeline misses new charges against him on Sept. 1???

   also, here is the full Time interview and audio if that hasn't been sent
   out yet:

   http://www.time.com/time/world/article= /0,8599,2034040,00.html
   On 12/1/10 2:21 PM, Melissa Taylor wrote:

     Timeline of charges:
     &lt;a moz-do-not-send=3D"true" class=3D"moz-txt-link-freetext"
     href=3D"http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2010/12/01/131722777/timeline-t=
     he-international-arrest-warrant-for-wikileaks-julian-assange?ft=3D1&amp;f=
     =3D1004"&gt;http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2010/12/01/131722777/timeline-=
     the-international-arrest-warrant-for-wikileaks-julian-assange?ft=3D1&amp;f=
     =3D1004

     Bayless Parsley wrote:

       read this:

       http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/24/world/24assange.html?_=
       r=3D1&amp;pagewanted=3Dprint

       On 12/1/10 2:15 PM, Lena Bell wrote:

         this is a good feature piece The Age newspaper did back in May... a
         lot of people were talking about it then because so little is known
         about the man. Some of the more personal, historical background is
         pasted below after URL. My personal opinion? I think he is very
         intelligent but disenchanted and as journo writes:

         In another life, Assange might have been a mathematician. He spent
         four years studying maths, mostly at Melbourne University - with
         stints at the Australian National University in Canberra - but never
         graduated, disenchanted, he says, with how many of his fellow
         students were conducting research for the US defence system. 'There
         are key cases which are just really f---ing obnoxious,'' he says.

         Assange isn't paid a salary by WikiLeaks. He has investments, which
         he won't discuss. But during the 1990s he worked in computer
         security in Australia and overseas, devised software programmes - in
         1997 he co-invented ''Rubberhose deniable encryption'', which he
         describes as a cryptographic system made for human rights workers
         wanting to protect sensitive data in the field - and also became a
         key figure in the free software movement.

         http://www.theage.=
         com.au/technology/technology-news/the-secret-life-of-wikileaks-founder-juli=
         an-assange-20100521-w1um.html

         The former teenage hacker from Melbourne, whose mystique as an
         internet subversive, a resourceful loner with no fixed address,
         travelling constantly between countries with laptop and backpack,
         constitutes what you might call Assange's romantic appeal.

         But then there's the flip side: a man who believes in extreme
         transparency, but evades and obfuscates when it comes to talking
         about himself in the rare interviews that he gives. In the past, at
         least, these have hardly ever been face to face.

         The secretiveness extends to those close to him. One woman who
         speaks to me on the condition of total anonymity lived in the same
         share house in Melbourne as Assange for a few months in early 2007,
         when WikiLeaks was in its incubation period. The house was the hub,
         and it was inhabited by computer geeks.

         There were beds everywhere, she says. There was even a bed in the
         kitchen. This woman slept on a mattress in Assange's room, and says
         she would sometimes wake up in the middle of the night to find him
         still glued to his computer. He frequently forget to eat or sleep,
         wrote mathematical formulas all over the walls and the doors, and
         used only red light bulbs in his room - on the basis that early man,
         if waking suddenly, would see only the gentle light of the campfire,
         and fall asleep again. He also went through a period of frustration
         that the human body has to be fed several times a day and
         experimented with eating just one meal every two days, in order to
         be more efficient. ''He was always extremely focused,'' she says.

         Assange first visited Sweden in the 1990s - and WikiLeaks is hosted
         on a main server in Sweden, where the identities of confidential
         sources are protected by law.

         This doesn't prove anything, of course - and WikiLeaks only moved
         its main server to Sweden two years ago, after the Julius Baer Bank
         tried to close down the website. Even so, I email Eva Gabrielsson,
         Larsson's widow, to ask if the two of them ever met Assange -
         explaining that he helped research a remarkable 1997 book,
         /Underground/, about the exploits of an extraordinary group of young
         Melbourne hackers, written by the Melbourne academic Suelette
         Dreyfus. The hackers all had monikers in the book: Assange is said
         to be the character Mendax. Assange convinced Dreyfus to release the
         book online, and according to one source I spoke to, there was great
         interest in the book in Sweden - and in China.

         ''About Julian Assange - well, why don't you ask him?'' Gabrielsson
         emails back.

         It isn't the most urgent question I have for Assange, who I meet in
         early May, the day after he slips back into Melbourne, his home
         town. He arrived on a flight from Europe, via the US. Or so I
         understand from the person acting as our inbetween.

         The same contact provides a Melbourne address, and instructions.
         ''Don't call a cab, find one on the street; turn off your mobile
         phone before you catch the cab and preferably, remove the
         batteries.''

         And here he is - a tall, thin, pale figure with that remarkable
         white hair, looking very tired, and wearing creased, student-style
         dark clothes and boots, and backpack.

         As we shake hands, he inclines his head slightly in a courtly, old
         world manner, at odds with his youthful, student-traveller looks.
         When I remark that there's a lot to ask him, he replies, ''That's
         all right - I'm not going to answer half of it.''

         Is Assange his real name? Yes, he replies, then says it's the name
         in his passport. ''What's in a name?'' he then adds mysteriously,
         casting doubt on his first answer.

         At the time of writing, his passport status was apparently back to
         normal after immigration officials at Melbourne Airport said that
         his passport was going to be cancelled on the grounds that it was
         too tatty.

         It has been in a couple of rivers, Assange allows of the state of
         his passport. The first time, as he recalls, in December 2006, when
         he was crossing a swollen river during heavy rain in southern
         Tasmania, and was swept out to sea. He swam back in. ''My conclusion
         from that experience is that the universe doesn't give a damn about
         you, so it's a good thing you do.''

         Why did he have his passport with him? He had everything he needed
         for three weeks of survival, he replies. He needed his passport for
         ID when he flew to Tasmania.

         Doesn't he have a driver's licence? ''No comment.''

         How true is the image of him as the enigmatic founder of WikiLeaks,
         constantly on the move, with no real place to call home? Is this
         really how he lives his life?

         ''Do I live my life as an enigmatic man?''

         No - is it true you're constantly on the move?

         ''Pretty much true.''

         Does he have one base he'd call home?

         ''I have four bases where I would go if I was sick, which is how I
         think about where home is.''

         He has spent the best part of the past six months in Iceland, he
         says. And the next six months? ''It depends on which area of the
         world I'm needed most. We're an international organisation. We deal
         with international problems,'' he replies.

         Assange mentions four bases, but names only two. The one in Iceland
         and another in Kenya, where he has spent a lot of time, on and off,
         in the past couple of years.

         The Kroll report, released on WikiLeaks, reportedly swung the Kenyan
         presidential election in 2007.

         When he's in the country, Assange lives in a compound in Nairobi
         with other foreigners, mainly members of NGOs such as Medecins Sans
         Frontieres. He originally went to Kenya in 2007 to give a lecture on
         WikiLeaks, when it was up and running. ''And ended up staying
         there,'' I suggest encouragingly.

         ''Mmmm.''

         As a result of liking the place or =E2=80=A6

         ''Well, it has got extraordinary opportunities for reforms. It had a
         revolution in the 1970s. It has only been a democracy since 2004
         =E2=80=A6 I was introduced to senior people in journalism, in human
         rights very quickly.''

         He has travelled to Siberia. Is there a third base there?

         ''No comment. I wish. The bear steak is good.''

         Why did he go to Georgia?

         ''How do you know about that?''

         I read it somewhere, I reply. It was a rumour. ''Ah, a rumour,'' he
         says.

         But he did go there? ''It's better that I don't comment on that,
         because Georgia is not such a big place.''

         Living permanently in a state of exile, which can become addictive,
         means that you always have the sharp eye of the outsider, I suggest.

         ''The sense of perspective that interaction with multiple cultures
         gives you I find to be extremely valuable, because it allows you to
         see the structure of a country with greater clarity, and gives you a
         sense of mental independence,'' Assange replies.

         "You're not swept up in the trivialities of a nation. You can
         concentrate on the serious matters. Australia is a bit of a
         political wasteland. That's OK, as long as people recognise that. As
         long as people recognise that Australia is a suburb of a country
         called Anglo-Saxon.''

         Could he ever live in one place again? A brief silence. ''I don't
         think so,'' he says finally.

         ''I don't see myself as a computer guru,'' he remarks at one point.
         ''I live a broad intellectual life. I'm good at a lot of things,
         except for spelling.''

         At one point, thinking about some of the material leaked on
         WikiLeaks, I ask Assange how he defines national security. ''We
         don't,'' he says crisply. "We're not interested in that. We're
         interested in justice. We are a supranational organisation. So we're
         not interested in national security.''

         How does he justify keeping his own life as private as possible,
         considering that he believes in extreme transparency?

         ''I don't justify it,'' he says, with just a hint of
         mischievousness. ''No one has sent us any official documents that
         were not published previously on me. Should they do so, and they
         meet our editorial criteria, we will publish them.''

         Assange isn't paid a salary by WikiLeaks. He has investments, which
         he won't discuss. But during the 1990s he worked in computer
         security in Australia and overseas, devised software programmes - in
         1997 he co-invented ''Rubberhose deniable encryption'', which he
         describes as a cryptographic system made for human rights workers
         wanting to protect sensitive data in the field - and also became a
         key figure in the free software movement.

         The whole point of free software, he comments, is to ''liberate it
         in all senses''. He adds: ''It' s part of the intellectual heritage
         of man. True intellectual heritage can't be bound up in intellectual
         property.''

         Did being arrested, and later on finding himself in a courtroom,
         push him into a completely different reality that he had never
         thought about - and eventually in a direction that eventually saw
         him start thinking along the lines of a website like WikiLeaks, that
         would take on the world?

         ''That [experience] showed me how the justice system and bureaucracy
         worked, and did not work; what its abilities were and what its
         limitations were,'' he replies. ''And justice wasn't something that
         came out of the justice system. Justice was something that you bring
         to the justice system. And if you're lucky, or skilled, and you're
         in a country that isn't too corrupt, you can do that.''

         In another life, Assange might have been a mathematician. He spent
         four years studying maths, mostly at Melbourne University - with
         stints at the Australian National University in Canberra - but never
         graduated, disenchanted, he says, with how many of his fellow
         students were conducting research for the US defence system.

         ''There are key cases which are just really f---ing obnoxious,'' he
         says.

         According to Assange, the US Defence Advance Research Project Agency
         was funding research which involved optimising the efficiency of a
         military bulldozer called the Grizzly Plough, which was used in the
         Iraqi desert during Operation Desert Storm during the 1991 Gulf War.

         ''It has a problem in that it gets damaged [from] the sand rolling
         up in front. The application of this bulldozer is to move at 60
         kilometres an hour, sweeping barbed wire and so on before it, and
         get the sand and put it in the trenches where the [Iraqi] troops
         are, and bury them all alive and then roll over the top. So that's
         what Melbourne University's applied maths department was doing -
         studying how to improve the efficiency of the Grizzly Plough.''

         Assange says he did a lot of soul-searching before he finally quit
         his studies in 2007. He had already started working with other
         people on a model of WikiLeaks by early 2006.

         There were people at the physics conference, he goes on, who were
         career physicists, ''and there was just something about their
         attire, and the way they moved their bodies, and of course the bags
         on their backs didn't help much either. I couldn't respect them as
         men''.

         His university experience didn't define his cynicism, though.
         Assange says that he's extremely cynical anyway. ''I painted every
         corner, floor, wall and ceiling in the 'room' I was in, black, until
         there was only one corner left. I mean intellectually,'' he adds.
         ''To me, it was the forced move [in chess], when you have to do
         something or you'll lose the game.''

         So WikiLeaks was his forced move?

         ''That's the way it feels to me, yes. There were no other options
         left to me on the table.''

         WikiLeaks, he says, has released more classified documents than the
         rest of the world press combined.

         ''That's not something I say as a way of saying how successful we
         are - rather, that shows you the parlous state of the rest of the
         media. How is it that a team of five people has managed to release
         to the public more suppressed information, at that level, than the
         rest of the world press combined? It's disgraceful.''

         Where does Assange see WikiLeaks in 10 years? "It's not what I want
         the world to be. It's what I want the rest of the world to be," he
         replies.

         He would like to see all media develop their own forms of WikiLeaks.
         That would put his own website out of business, I point out.

         ''We have a proposal to [an American foundation] for a grant to just
         that,'' he replies, explaining that WikiLeaks could create systems
         for all media organisations.

         A thought: has he ever met Rupert Murdoch? ''No.''

         Fred Burton wrote:

           Lena - What is this dude's Aussie background?=C2=A0 He seems like
           a lunatic
           or a left-winger?=C2=A0 Angry Aussie w/an axe to grind.=C2=A0 B=
           elongs in Swedish
           politics.
           FBI is in bed w/the Aussies.=C2=A0 I'm sure we are listening in to
           every call
           the jamoke is making.
           Lena Bell wrote:
           =C2=A0

             Not sure that's happening re Oz; federal police have opened up
             an
             investigation to see whether or not any Australian criminal laws
             were
             broken. - where did Nick get the insight about an agreed
             extradition -
             there is nothing about this on OS and of course it would mean
             Assange
             would have to come home first. Something he is very unlikely to
             do.
             GovGen hasn't ruled out canceling his passport incidentally.
             His mother has recently been interviewed by the ABC and she is
             scared
             that he will be "hunted down and jailed"...=C2=A0 will make it
             difficult to
             pursue the scenario painted below. Australians are likely to
             back him.
             You wouldn't believe how much press/public sentiment david hicks
             created in Guantanamo Bay. It really forced the Howard govt to
             change
             tactics... esp when polling results overall were so poor.**

             Bayless Parsley wrote:
             =C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0

               The main thing I was trying to ask about earlier was in
               regards to
               the logistics of actually detaining the guy.

               I got the sense that Fred was saying US agents could
               physically do it
               in another country. Perhaps I just misunderstood what he was
               trying
               to say, because I find that really hard to believe (as
               rendition is
               not an option in this case, which is why I brought up the fact
               that
               some Republican congressmen are trying to call Assange a
               "terrorist"
               now).

               Basic fact is that any move to arrest the guy (assuming they
               get an
               indictment for him) would require that a friendly government
               do it
               and then extradite him. Nick Miller told me the Australians
               have
               already offered to do this, as Assange is an Australian
               citizen, and
               Australia is the Canada of the southern hemisphere when it
               comes to
               its relations with the US.

               Also, Karen had a very good point about the sex charges.
               Weren't
               those dropped months ago after the initial allegations? What
               do ya
               know, after the US explictly warned him time and again to stop
               publishing the cables, it pops back up all of a sudden...

               On 12/1/10 12:36 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:
               =C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0

                 can you charge them with anything if they paid for the
                 information?

                 On Dec 1, 2010, at 12:35 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                 =C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0

                   You mean by helping Manning get the information off the
                   networks? Training, computer codes, flash drives,
                   etc??=C2=A0 That's a good point. On 12/1/10 12:31 PM,
                   George Friedman wrote:
                   =C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0

                     He might have facilitated or suborned the access. For
                     example,
                     provided the means for distirbuting it.

                     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

                     -----------------------------------------------------=
                     -------------------

                     *From: *Sean Noonan &lt;sean.n= oonan@stratfor.com&gt;
                     *Date: *Wed, 1 Dec 2010 12:19:09 -0600 (CST)
                     *To: *Analyst List&lt;analysts@= stratfor.com&gt;
                     *ReplyTo: *Analyst List &lt;analysts@= stratfor.com&gt;
                     *Subject: *Re: Info - Wiki Founder

                     I think it's very difficult to indict him on anything
                     though. MAYBE espionage, but even those laws are still
                     too old.=C2= =A0 I think
                     your FBI contact is right (sadly).=C2=A0 the US can
                     really only get the
                     person who did the leak, not who published it--George
                     also pointed
                     this out over the weekend. What would the sealed
                     indictment be for?

                     (this is also why they will get him on some other
                     charges in
                     another country....)

                     On 12/1/10 12:15 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
                     =C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=
                     =A0=C2=A0=C2=A0

                       Sealed indictment.=C2=A0 Ha= nd the warrant over to
                       the USMS to execute.
                       Happens everyday.=C2=A0 The USMS works w/their
                       counterparts and lock
                       the dude
                       up.
                       Bayless Parsley wrote:
                       =C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0 =
                       =C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=
                       =A0

                         How would it work if the US wanted to catch such a
                         high profile
                         target
                         like this? Despite what one Republican senator may
                         have said the
                         other
                         day (can't remember who, or if it was even a
                         senator), he's not a
                         "terrorist," and so rendition..... wouldn't really
                         be an option.

                         But legally, you'd have to have the host
                         government's
                         cooperation. Is
                         there any way aside from that scenario that could
                         lead to his
                         arrest
                         on charges of breaking US laws?

                         On 12/1/10 12:12 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
                         =C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=
                         =C2=A0=C2=A0
                         =C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=
                         =C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0

                           &gt;From a very good contact @ the FBI --

                           How come you guys haven't picked this left-wing
                           lunatic
                           WikiLeaks founder up on
                           some sort of trumped up charge?=C2=A0
                           ---------------------------------------------------------------------------=

                           1st Amendment overprotects journalists.
                           =C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=
                           =A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0
                           =C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=
                           =A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0

                     --=C2=A0
                     Sean Noonan
                     Tactical Analyst
                     Office: +1 512-279-9479
                     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
                     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
                     www.stratfor.com&lt;/= a&gt;
                     =C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=
                     =A0=C2=A0=C2=A0

                   --=C2=A0
                   Sean Noonan
                   Tactical Analyst
                   Office: +1 512-279-9479
                   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
                   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
                   www.stratfor.com
                   =C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0 =

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-01 21:26:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1052655_re-info-wiki-founder-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1055466</id>
    <title>Re: Assange is off the hook...
</title>
    <description>   you are right, it's a "sex by surprise charge"!

   Sort of like...

   nevermind

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Chris Farnham" &lt;chris.farnham@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 11:01:04 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   If it really matters I can look in to it, but from what I am hearing that
   is not the case. 
   That's not to say that my friend is foolproof either. She knows nothing of
   law or politics, she just knows the girl in question and follows the
   news. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 12:57:59 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   It is about rape. They asked him to use a condom, but he apparently likes
   unprotected sex.

   Sweden has very low threshold for what constitutes rape by the way,
   according to a lawyer friend.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Chris Farnham" &lt;chris.farnham@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 10:42:16 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   Is it possible to revoke some one's citizenship on the grounds of them
   being a total dickhead? 
   I don't care about the other leaks but the ones he has made that
   potentially damage Australian interests upset me. 
   If I thought I could switch this dickhead off without getting done I don't
   think I'd have too much of a problem.
   BTW, close family friend in Sweden who knows the girl that is pressing
   charges tells me that there is absolutely nothing behind it other than
   prosecutors that are looking to make a name for themselves. My friend
   speaks rather disparagingly about the girl who is claiming molestation. I
   also think the whole rape thing is incorrect for if I remember correctly
   rape was never the charge. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 12:23:03 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   What a douche.

   And I just want to be clear here... I have no problem with the leaks. I
   think they're great. And I think it may be good on some level to have
   stuff like this come out once in a while. What I can't stand is A) his ego
   trip and B) his clear anti-Americanism. Take the time to read the intro to
   Cablegate when you get the chance. This guy hates America more than OBL.

   What I love, however, is how nobody in the U.S. is mad about the cables.
   Hell, I have a better opinion of State Department diplomats now than I did
   before the cables. They actually said a few smart things here and there. I
   actually gave them a tip of my hat.

   I want to see him try to take on the Russians. He'd be going bald in an
   Iceland hospital within days.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 10:11:39 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   should we change our Stratfor motto now?
   Predictive, insightful intelligence...in a post-Cablegate world.
   On Dec 5, 2010, at 10:05 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

     This guy needs to take pills for his ego:

      He suggested, not for the first time, that he believes his document
      service has had a profound effect on world history: a**I believe
      geopolitics will be separated into pre- and post-Cablegate phases.a**

     Also, I have a question about this part (this is Assange's lawyer saying
     how Wikileaks would release full versions of all files -- including
     names of spies, etc. -- if harmed):

      WikiLeaks, Mr. Stephens said, has a**been subject to cyberattacks and
      censorship around the world and they need to protect themselves ... This
      is what they believe to be a thermonuclear device in the information
      age.a**

     Let's say the following scenario happens. Assange is arrested and
     extradicted to Sweden to face rape charges. Wikileaks releases the
     password to the insurance files. Would he not then be directly
     endangering U.S. and other country intelligence professionals? Would it
     not then be possible to prosecute him for espionage? 

     -- 
     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
     Marko Papic
     Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
     STRATFOR
     700 Lavaca Street - 900
     Austin, Texas
     78701 USA
     P: + 1-512-744-4094
     marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-06 06:05:28</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1055466_re-assange-is-off-the-hook-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1055857</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] Fwd: G3* - NEW ZEALAND- NZ leader wins 2nd term,
 pledges fiscal discipline
</title>
    <description>   thanks. misread it.  thought it meant to sell their minority stakes

   On 11/28/11 8:00 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

     Selling from 74% to 51% is selling a minority stake of 23%

     On 11/28/11 7:50 AM, Anthony Sung wrote:

       I don't understand how minorities stakes can be 74%? are there rumors
       that China is planning to bid on these assets?

       also, is NZ in such a bad economic position?  18 billion deficit is
       bad but not horrid and was running a trade surplus for the first half
       of this year. they may not be awesome like OZ but they sure as hell
       ain't EU

       On 11/28/11 1:04 AM, Lena Bell wrote:

         biggest thing to note from election is that Key can now proceed with
         the planned asset sales (they're expected to raise between $NZ5
         billion to $NZ7 billion).
         49 percent of Genesis Energy is expected to be the first on the
         block, but Key has also promised to sell minority stakes in power
         companies in Meridian Energy, Mighty River Power and coal producer
         Solid Energy. The Nationals also campaigned on cutting the govt's 74
         percent stake in Air New Zealand to 51 percent.
         Why does Stratfor potentially care? Because there are a lot of
         energy assets on offer here. Let's watch and see if/how China
         responds.
         NZ is in a very different economic position to Oz - last year they
         posted a record deficit of $NZ18.4 billion - so there are definite
         opportunities for willing buyers.

         -------- Original Message --------

          Subject: G3* - NEW ZEALAND- NZ leader wins 2nd term, pledges fiscal 
                   discipline                                                 
             Date: Sat, 26 Nov 2011 08:50:39 -0600 (CST)                      
             From: Adelaide Schwartz &lt;adelaide.schwartz@stratfor.com&gt;         
         Reply-To: analysts@stratfor.com                                      
               To: alerts@stratfor.com                                        

         NZ leader wins 2nd term, pledges fiscal discipline
         By NICK PERRY | AP aEUR" 1 hr 51 mins ago. Nov. 26, 2011
         http://news.yahoo.com/nz-leader-wins-2nd-term-pledges-fiscal-discipline-125705751.html
         WELLINGTON, New Zealand (AP) aEUR" Prime Minister John Key
         convincingly won a second term as New Zealand's leader in elections
         Saturday that open the door for the sales of billions of dollars
         worth of government assets as part of a plan to reduce the country's
         debt.
         Key's center-right National Party has promised to get the nation's
         books in order and begin paying down foreign debt within the next
         three years. That message has taken on a new resonance after the
         country's credit rating was downgraded this year and the situation
         in Europe has shown how debt can quickly become toxic.
         The National Party dominated the election, coming up just short of
         getting enough votes to govern alone. With most of the votes
         counted, the party was projected to win 60 of the 121 seats in
         Parliament, an increase of two. Key will look to some of the minor
         parties for support in forming a stable government.
         "Tonight New Zealanders voted for a better future, and there will be
         a better future," Key said in his victory speech.
         The center-left Labour party, which had opposed asset sales, won
         just 27 percent of the vote, meaning it will lose about nine of its
         43 seats. Like National, it also promised to get the books in order
         aEUR" but Labour planned to do it by introducing a capital gains tax
         and raising the age of retirement by two years, to 67.
         Phil Goff, Labour's leader, said the party was "bloodied, but not
         defeated."
         "It wasn't our time this time," he told supporters. The poor showing
         makes it likely Goff will soon step aside.
         Key plans to sell minority stakes in four government-owned energy
         companies and in Air New Zealand in order to raise an estimated 7
         billion New Zealand dollars ($5.2 billion).
         The National Party's win could also open the door for more mineral
         exploration and offshore oil drilling. Labour had proposed a
         moratorium on deep-sea drilling after a cargo ship ran aground last
         month near the North Island port of Tauranga, spilling about 400
         tons of fuel into the ocean and onto local beaches.
         Key's win will also likely continue the country's warming
         relationship with the United States. For a quarter-century, New
         Zealand's ban on nuclear warships caused a rift, particularly over
         defense. However, New Zealand's small troop presence in Afghanistan
         and a promise by the U.S. to send a contingent of Marines to New
         Zealand next year point to a thaw.
         The U.S. and New Zealand are also among nine Pacific countries
         negotiating a free trade deal in the region.
         The election was also marked by the unexpected return to Parliament
         of Winston Peters, the mercurial leader of the anti-immigration New
         Zealand First party, which has shored up support among older voters
         who approve of its generous policies for them.
         New Zealand First won about 7 percent of the vote, enough for eight
         seats, after getting shut out of the last election in 2008.
         The Green party, meanwhile, enjoyed its best showing ever, winning
         11 percent of the vote.
         But the election also spelled the near-demise of the conservative
         Act party, which won five seats in the last election but this time
         could manage just one. Act party leader Don Brash announced he would
         resign Sunday.
         National's campaign hinged on the personal popularity of Key, a
         former currency trader whose easygoing demeanor appeals to many. His
         image was placed on hundreds of National billboards.
         Key's common touch was reassuring to people when a powerful
         earthquake struck Christchurch last February, said Jennifer
         Lees-Marshment, a political studies lecturer at the University of
         Auckland. It also enabled him to share in their excitement in
         October when the country's national All Blacks team won the Rugby
         World Cup.
         Voters were also deciding whether to keep their electoral system, in
         which parties win parliamentary seats based on the proportion of
         votes they receive. Some wanted to return to a winner-takes-all
         format, although polls indicated most favored sticking with the
         current system.
         The final results of that measure won't be known for two weeks. In
         early results, however, about 54 percent of voters favored keeping
         the German-style proportional system.

 --
 Anthony Sung
 ADP
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4076 | F: +1 512 744 4105
 www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 Anthony Sung
 ADP
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4076 | F: +1 512 744 4105
 www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-28 15:17:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-07-29 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1055857_re-eastasia-fwd-g3-new-zealand-nz-leader-wins-2nd-term.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>anthony.sung@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1056763</id>
    <title>Re: Discussion- Assange Arrested
</title>
    <description>One other point is this.  Ferreting out his confederates is also key. 
Find out what other disgruntled rogues inside the tent or outside.  Pile
on.  Move him from country to country to face various charges for the
next 25 years.  But, seize everything he and his family own, to include
every person linked to Wiki. 

Marko Papic wrote:
&gt; Nate makes a good point. The arrest is not necessarily the end of
&gt; Julian Assange. He could become a martyr in jail, particularly a
&gt; Swedish jail, which I imagine has better amenities than my house.
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; On 12/7/10 7:38 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt; Will take weeks for extradition, unless he waves the process. 
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; DOJ (Holder) won't seek prosecution on their own, but look for the GOP
&gt;&gt; (Congress) to press for criminal prosecution.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Be easy to indict. 
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; I would pursue Conspiracy and Political Terrorism charges and declassify
&gt;&gt; the death of a source someone which I could link to Wiki. 
&gt;&gt;  
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Nate Hughes wrote:
&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt; Other thought is that I kind of feel like a lot of people were coming
&gt;&gt;&gt; around to recognizing his astonishing douchebaggery and he was by this
&gt;&gt;&gt; point undermining himself and his organization. If he does get tied up
&gt;&gt;&gt; in the legal system, does he come out screaming all the louder? And if
&gt;&gt;&gt; he does somehow get imprisoned, does he have the potential in
&gt;&gt;&gt; incarceration to actually become the sort of inspirational,
&gt;&gt;&gt; martryr-like (forgive the euphamism) figure that he always imagined
&gt;&gt;&gt; himself to be in the free world?
&gt;&gt;&gt; ------------------------------------------------------------------------
&gt;&gt;&gt; *From: * Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; *Date: *Tue, 7 Dec 2010 04:42:58 -0600 (CST)
&gt;&gt;&gt; *To: *Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; *ReplyTo: * Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; *Subject: *Discussion- Assange Arrested
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; We had the discussion below on Friday when it was first suggested that
&gt;&gt;&gt; Assange would be arrested.  Here's a bit more:
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and
&gt;&gt;&gt; public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7.  He is due to
&gt;&gt;&gt; appear in a court in Westminster soon to face charges of rape, accused
&gt;&gt;&gt; by two woman in Sweden.  Charges of sexual assault rarely are passed
&gt;&gt;&gt; through Interpol red notices, like this case, so this is no doubt
&gt;&gt;&gt; about trying to disrupt WikiLeaks release of government documents. 
&gt;&gt;&gt; While it's possible that Assange's arrest could disrupt the long-term
&gt;&gt;&gt; viability of WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release of cables in the
&gt;&gt;&gt; short-term and governments will now be concerned about what the
&gt;&gt;&gt; organization may release in revenge.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; see discussion below.  (revenge = that encrypted 'security' file)
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; ------------------------------------------------------------------------
&gt;&gt;&gt; *From: *"Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; *To: *"Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; *Sent: *Friday, December 3, 2010 10:23:51 AM
&gt;&gt;&gt; *Subject: *Re: [OS] UK/US/AUSTRALIA/CT- WikiLeaks back online, Assange
&gt;&gt;&gt; close        to arrest
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; yes, most likely would not stop these.  but it could disrupt whatever
&gt;&gt;&gt; might be next. 
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Also all this trouble with internet hosting could serve to slow down
&gt;&gt;&gt; this set of leaks.  And maybe a combination of wikileaks arrest and
&gt;&gt;&gt; server shutdowns could stop it. 
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; On 12/3/10 9:20 AM, Ben West wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;     If Assange is running the show and his staff isn't as confident as
&gt;&gt;&gt;     he is, then arresting him now could very well stop the flow of
&gt;&gt;&gt;     cables. But all it takes is one person to keep it going - or just
&gt;&gt;&gt;     dump them all at once if it gets too dicey, and these files have
&gt;&gt;&gt;     been very widely distributed so far. I can't imagine anyone
&gt;&gt;&gt;     reclaiming all the documents now.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;     On 12/3/2010 8:54 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;         yeah also remember there was an article by nytimes i think
&gt;&gt;&gt;         that alot of people on his staff were uncomfortable with the
&gt;&gt;&gt;         way things were playing out, so without him there they may
&gt;&gt;&gt;         loose nerve or come to their better senses
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;         On 12/3/10 8:48 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;             Yes, like Fred's source pointed out--arrest and trial
&gt;&gt;&gt;             would just be a political circus.  It would probably not
&gt;&gt;&gt;             disrupt wikileaks.  BUT, occasonally a leader makes an
&gt;&gt;&gt;             organization, and maybe no one as capable will be willing
&gt;&gt;&gt;             to fill his shoes.  Or at least, won't be able to get as
&gt;&gt;&gt;             much pubilicity for wikileaks.  As you also said, it could
&gt;&gt;&gt;             tarnish both Assange's and Wikileaks' repution.  That coul
&gt;&gt;&gt;             dserve to discredit and undermine the group.  Maybe people
&gt;&gt;&gt;             would be less inclined to leak to it, or the public would
&gt;&gt;&gt;             be less inclined to pay attention--or more importantly
&gt;&gt;&gt;             support wikileaks financially.  Though I admit the chance
&gt;&gt;&gt;             of this causing the public to pay less attention is
&gt;&gt;&gt;             minimal, and in fact would probably increase attention on
&gt;&gt;&gt;             the guy. 
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;             (though personally, getting a rapist off the street is
&gt;&gt;&gt;             getting a rapist off the street.  Also, his mom owns a
&gt;&gt;&gt;             puppet theater...)
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;             On 12/3/10 8:38 AM, Ben West wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 What would the overall significance of his arrest be?
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 It's likely that the files are backed up elsewhere and
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 that someone else could give the go-ahead for
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 releasing them (that could very well already be the
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 case) and if his back-ups are anything like Assange,
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 they would welcome the publicity that would come to
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 them by filling his shoes.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 If the British got custody of him, they could conduct
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 searches or evidence that would support rape charges
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 and, if they happened to find material regarding the
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 leaks, that could lead to new charges. But this has
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 been coming for a while, and if Assange was smart, he
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 would have turned over any really sensitive stuff by
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 now, which would decrease the likelihood of police
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 finding anything juicy.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 Seems to me that all this really does is tarnish his
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 reputation and make him look like scum. It provides
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 some public distraction from all the leaked documents,
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 but doesn't undermine their impact - just undermines
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 the character of the person who facilitated the leaks.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 any other thoughts?
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 On 12/3/2010 7:40 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                     I may have sent this out before- Assange walking
&gt;&gt;&gt;                     out of a CNN interview.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lisa9XTRLb4
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                     just shows how far his head is up his ass. 
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                     On 12/3/10 7:32 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                         looks like Assange is in the UK and they might
&gt;&gt;&gt;                         actually roll on him.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                         On 12/3/10 7:31 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             *OG source
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             *
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Net closes on Assange: arrest by British
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             police expected in days*
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             By Mark Hughes and Jerome Taylor
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Friday, 3 December 2010
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/net-closes-on-assange-arrest-by-british-police-expected-in-days-2149805.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Julian Assange, the WikiLeaks founder, is
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             expected to be arrested in the coming days
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             after Swedish prosecutors filed a new
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             warrant with British authorities.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             The Independent revealed yesterday that a
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             procedural error with the European Arrest
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Warrant had delayed the arrest of the
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             39-year-old Australian, who is wanted in
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Sweden over sexual allegations but has
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             been in England since October.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Police in Gothenburg claim they have now
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             submitted a fresh warrant to the Serious
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Organised Crime Agency. Soca is expected
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             to instruct Scotland Yard to arrest Mr
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Assange and have him appear before an
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             extradition hearing â€“ although as of last
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             night the Metropolitan Police had yet to
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             receive the warrant.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Police sources have previously said that
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             they received a letter from Mr Assange's
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             UK-based lawyer, Mark Stephens, containing
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             information about how to contact Mr
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Assange should they need to.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Details of the new arrest warrant came as
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             a last-ditch attempt to have the
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             allegations against Mr Assange dropped
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             failed. Sweden's highest court upheld the
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             arrest order and refused to let him appeal
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             against a lower court's ruling.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Last night, Mr Assange's family spoke of
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             their fears for his safety after
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             increasingly shrill statements from
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             American commentators who have called for
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             his assassination. His mother, Christine
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Assange, said "the forces that he's
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             challenging are too big".
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             The arrest warrant filed with Soca states
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             that he was wanted on suspicion of rape,
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             sexual molestation and unlawful coercion.
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             But Soca requested a new warrant. A
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             spokeswoman for the Swedish National
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Police Board told the BBC that the
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             original one had been refused because it
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             listed only the maximum penalty for the
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             most serious crime alleged, rather than
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             for all of the crimes.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             When the arrest is made, Mr Assange will
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             be taken before an extradition hearing at
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Westminster magistrates' court. If he
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             refuses to be extradited, a judge will
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             preside over an extradition hearing and
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             will rule whether he should be sent to
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Sweden or discharged.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Last night, Mr Stephens said he would
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             challenge any arrest in British courts.
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             "The process in this case has been so
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             utterly irregular that the chances of a
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             valid arrest warrant being submitted to me
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             are very small," he said. Mr Stephens has
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             accused Swedish prosecutors of launching a
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             witch-hunt against his client, who
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             strongly denies the rape allegations and
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             says he is being smeared because of the
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             exposÃ©s published by his website.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             He has maintained that Swedish prosecutors
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             have yet to provide any evidence against
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Mr Assange and have ignored his requests
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             to meet with them. He also expressed
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             concerns at the way the UK and Swedish
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             authorities were handling the case.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             "I feel like I am sitting in the middle of
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             a surreal Swedish fairytale," he said.
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             "The trolls keep threatening to come on
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             and keep making noises off stage. But at
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             the moment, no appearance from them."
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             In an interview with an Australian
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             newspaper, Mr Assange's mother defended
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             her son and lambasted hawks in the US who
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             have called for his death.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Ms Assange, who runs a puppet theatre in
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Noosa, a Queensland beach resort, defended
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             her son's decision to publish thousands of
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             classified US documents on the website.
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             "He sees what he's doing as doing a good
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             thing in the world â€“ fighting baddies, if
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             you like," she told Queensland's Courier-Mail.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Ms Assange â€“ who does not even own a
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             computer â€“ described her son as a hero of
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             the internet. But she added that she
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             feared he had "gotten too smart for
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             himself", saying: "I'm concerned it's
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             gotten too big and the forces that he's
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             challenging are too big." She did not want
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             him "hunted down and jailed".
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             On 12/3/10 7:24 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 *WikiLeaks back online, Assange close
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 to arrest*
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Updated 2 hours 45 minutes ago
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/12/03/3084384.htm
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 The WikiLeaks website is back online
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 with a new Swiss address after its
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 previous domain name was killed.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 The whistleblower website's original
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 domain host, EveryDNS.net, says it
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 terminated its services because
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Wikileaks had been coming under
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 "massive" cyber attacks.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 The new address - wikileaks.ch - was
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 put online six hours after the
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 original site wikileaks.org was killed.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 An internet trace of the new domain
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 name suggests that the site itself is
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 still hosted in Sweden and in France.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Web users accessing the wikileaks.ch
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 address are directed to a page under
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 the URL http://213.251.145.96/ which
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 gives them access to the former site,
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 including a massive trove of leaked US
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 diplomatic traffic.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 The WikiLeaks website released more
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 than 250,000 secret US diplomatic
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 cables this week, which has left
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 governments around the world
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 scrambling to deal with the fallout.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Meanwhile, British media reports
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Scotland Yard could arrest the site's
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 founder Julian Assange within days.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Prosecutors in Sweden want to question
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Mr Assange over alleged sex crimes
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 involving two women during a visit to
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Stockholm in August.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Mr Assange, who was born in Australia,
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 has not been charged and he denies the
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 allegations.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 He reportedly avoided arrest this week
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 because Swedish authorities had filled
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 out an Interpol red notice incorrectly.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Britain's Independent newspaper
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 reports that police know Mr Assange's
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 whereabouts in England and are
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 expected to arrest him in the coming days.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Mr Assange's Stockholm-based lawyer
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Bjoern Hurtig says he will fight his
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 client's extradition to Sweden in the
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 event of his arrest.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 "Together with my British colleague
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Mark Stephens and international
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 experts, we will fight the extradition
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 warrants," he said.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 A WikiLeaks spokesman says Mr Assange
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 has to remain out of the public eye
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 because he is facing assassination
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 threats following the whistleblowing
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 website's publication of the secret
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 cables.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Several US senators have also called
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 for him to be charged with espionage.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Senator Dianne Feinstein says the leak
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 is a serious breach of national
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 security and action must be taken.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 "We have reviewed the espionage
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 statutes and we believe it qualifies,"
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 she said.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 "That this, allowed to be carried out,
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 incapacitates this nation to carry out
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 business."
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Sean Noonan
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Tactical Analyst
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 www.stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Sean Noonan
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Tactical Analyst
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                             www.stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                         -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                         Sean Noonan
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                         Tactical Analyst
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                         Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                         www.stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                     -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                     Sean Noonan
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                     Tactical Analyst
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                     Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                     www.stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 Ben West
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 Tactical Analyst
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 STRATFOR
&gt;&gt;&gt;                 Austin, TX
&gt;&gt;&gt;                           
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;             -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;             Sean Noonan
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;             Tactical Analyst
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;             Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;             www.stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;         -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;         Michael Wilson
&gt;&gt;&gt;         Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
&gt;&gt;&gt;         Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
&gt;&gt;&gt;         Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;               
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;     -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;     Ben West
&gt;&gt;&gt;     Tactical Analyst
&gt;&gt;&gt;     STRATFOR
&gt;&gt;&gt;     Austin, TX
&gt;&gt;&gt;         
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Sean Noonan
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Tactical Analyst
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; www.stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt; Sean Noonan
&gt;&gt;&gt; Tactical Analyst
&gt;&gt;&gt; Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt;&gt;&gt; Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt;&gt;&gt; Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt;&gt;&gt; www.stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;
&gt; -- 
&gt;
&gt; - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
&gt;
&gt; Marko Papic
&gt;
&gt; Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
&gt;
&gt; STRATFOR
&gt;
&gt; 700 Lavaca Street - 900
&gt;
&gt; Austin, Texas
&gt;
&gt; 78701 USA
&gt;
&gt; P: + 1-512-744-4094
&gt;
&gt; marko.papic@stratfor.com
&gt;
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 14:50:44</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1056763_re-discussion-assange-arrested-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1056988</id>
    <title>Re: Wikileaks is attacking us
</title>
    <description>Assange is going to make a nice bride in prison.  Screw the terrorist. 
He'll be eating cat food forever, unless George Soros hires him. 

Reva Bhalla wrote:
&gt; what.... the hell is that.  
&gt;
&gt; On Dec 7, 2010, at 11:24 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:
&gt;
&gt;&gt; would this suffice?
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; &lt;moz-screenshot-88.png&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; On 12/7/10 11:13 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt; when are your new book jacket pics coming out?  we need some new
&gt;&gt;&gt; material.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; On Dec 7, 2010, at 11:12 AM, George Friedman wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; He is always in an awkward pose. I'm merely posed in one.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; From: Reva Bhalla &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Date: Tue, 7 Dec 2010 11:05:59
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Marko Papic&lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Reply-To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;; Kevin
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Stech&lt;kevin.stech@stratfor.com&gt;; Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: Re: Wikileaks is attacking us
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Assange v Friedman... who can look more intimidating in an awkward
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; pose?  Find out in the 2011 annual forecast
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On Dec 7, 2010, at 11:00 AM, Marko Papic wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Potential diary? Comparing WikiLeak attack to Pearl Harbor...
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Will STRATFOR rebound and eventually launch a nuclear attack against
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; WikiLeaks?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Stay tuned... for $199 a year.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On 12/7/10 10:57 AM, George Friedman wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; So pearl harbor it wasn't.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; And while we are at it a moment to remember those that fell at
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; pearl 69 years ago today wouldn't me out of place.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; If I'm not mistaken more americans died at pearl than died in iraq.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Not trivializing the latter. Simply highlighting the former.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; From: "Kevin Stech" &lt;kevin.stech@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Date: Tue, 7 Dec 2010 10:42:57 -0600 (CST)
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;; 'Analyst
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; List'&lt;analysts@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: 'Reva Bhalla'&lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: RE: Wikileaks is attacking us
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Our research request tracking system was slowed to a crawl, and
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; brought down for about 10 minutes while I disabled access to the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; port it was attacking.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; ] On Behalf Of George Friedman
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent: Tuesday, December 07, 2010 10:41
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Analysts
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: Reva Bhalla
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: Re: Wikileaks is attacking us
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Did it in anyway hinder our ability to operate.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; From: "Kevin Stech" &lt;kevin.stech@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Date: Tue, 7 Dec 2010 10:38:55 -0600 (CST)
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;; 'Analyst
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; List'&lt;analysts@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: 'Reva Bhalla'&lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: RE: Wikileaks is attacking us
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; We also know that the traffic was specifically designed to test for
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; misconfigured software in an attempt to gain unauthorized web
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; content. The traffic was extremely aggressive and not at all subtle
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; or stealthy. It actually bordered on a denial of service attack.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; We also know that it wasnï¿½t originating from just any wikileaks
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; address, but from their webserver.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; These facts let us make some pretty solid guesses about whatï¿½s
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; going on. Maybe Iï¿½m never proven right, but the leading theory at
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; this point is IP spoofing.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; ] On Behalf Of George Friedman
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent: Tuesday, December 07, 2010 10:35
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Analysts
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: Reva Bhalla
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: Re: Wikileaks is attacking us
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; And yet we don't even know that for certain. Its inference.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Here is what we know. A wikileaks address has sent some amateurish
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; traffic against a minor stratfor site.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; That's it.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; The rest inference. It would be interesting if this escalated or we
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; had more data but until we do, it is hard to justify publishing.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; From: "Kevin Stech" &lt;kevin.stech@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Date: Tue, 7 Dec 2010 10:32:25 -0600 (CST)
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;; 'Analysts'&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: 'Reva Bhalla'&lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: RE: Wikileaks is attacking us
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; I completely discount the idea that Wikileaks is doing the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; attacking. Nor do I think anyone with legitimate access to their IP
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; address or network is doing this.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; I think someone outside their network is spoofing their IP address,
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; generating a lot of annoying traffic, and attempting to get their
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; IP blacklisted by automatic security processes.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; From: George Friedman [mailto:friedman@att.blackberry.net]
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent: Tuesday, December 07, 2010 10:28
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Kevin Stech; Analysts
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: Reva Bhalla
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: Re: Wikileaks is attacking us
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; How do you know that it is wikileaks as an organization attacking
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; and not someone using them as a mask?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; From: "Kevin Stech" &lt;kevin.stech@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Date: Tue, 7 Dec 2010 10:16:15 -0600 (CST)
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;; 'Analyst
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; List'&lt;analysts@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: 'Reva Bhalla'&lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: RE: Wikileaks is attacking us
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; What is unique in this attack
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; It is a supposed attack against us by the Wikileaks webserver. Very
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; very strange and unique, especially in light of all the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; circumstances.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Is this an attack or someone's server gone nuts.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Definitely an attack. No two ways about it.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Is there any reason except timing to assume any link to any other
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; event.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Not sure what you mean by this.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; ] On Behalf Of George Friedman
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent: Tuesday, December 07, 2010 10:13
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Analysts
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: Reva Bhalla
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: Re: Wikileaks is attacking us
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Three questions.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; What is unique in this attack
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Is this an attack or someone's server gone nuts.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Is there any reason except timing to assume any link to any other
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; event.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; From: Rodger Baker &lt;rbaker@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Date: Tue, 7 Dec 2010 10:11:21 -0600 (CST)
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: 'Reva Bhalla'&lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: Re: Wikileaks is attacking us
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; I do not think this is something we should write on.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; First, do we know whether this is hitting anyone other than stech's
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; personal server?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; second, what does it mean/matter?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On Dec 7, 2010, at 10:08 AM, scott stewart wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; This is not obsessing, the attack is actually very interesting and
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; different from anything seen in the press.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; ] On Behalf Of Marko Papic
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent: Tuesday, December 07, 2010 11:07 AM
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Analyst List
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: Reva Bhalla
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: Re: Wikileaks is attacking us
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; But the readers would want to know...
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Is a good, "hey, whats up over here?"
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; get Stech to write it... He knows what's up and needs to nerd out
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; on Assange.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; good publicity.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; $
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On 12/7/10 10:05 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; let's not obsess over this too much.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; it's really not that important, IMO...
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; we sound just as obsessed as the rest of the media over this thing.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; let's focus on real issue.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On Dec 7, 2010, at 10:03 AM, scott stewart wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Yes.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; ] On Behalf Of Marko Papic
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent: Tuesday, December 07, 2010 11:00 AM
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Analyst List
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: Re: Wikileaks is attacking us
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; If nobody else is noticing it, might be worth a quick 300 word
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; statement on it... almost like a brief.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Hey, look... this is what is happening. We dont think WikiLeaks is
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Douchbacking us on purpose. We ask our readers for thoughts...
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; LINK: Awesome diary
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; LINK: Fuck you Assange
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On 12/7/10 9:57 AM, Matthew Powers wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; I have not been able to find anyone else talking about this
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; online.  Seems even stranger if it is only Stratfor's research
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; server.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Kevin Stech wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Any reason to think the US is not behind this? Cui bono?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; ] On Behalf Of scott stewart
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent: Tuesday, December 07, 2010 09:49
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: 'Analyst List'; 'Marko Papic'
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: it@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: RE: Wikileaks is attacking us
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; I agree that option 2, is not it.  Too obvious to attack us using
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; their own system.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; ] On Behalf Of Kevin Stech
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent: Tuesday, December 07, 2010 10:45 AM
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: 'Analyst List'; 'Marko Papic'
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: it@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: RE: Wikileaks is attacking us
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; There are only 3 options and theyï¿½re all hugely interesting
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Least likely: someone hacked into the wikileaks server, left it
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; running, and decided to attack stratfor
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Not likely: wikileaks doesnï¿½t like stratfor and is attacking us
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; from their webserver.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Likely: someone is spoofing wikileaks and acting like the internet
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; equivalent of an abusively drunk fratboy to get the wikileaks
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; server ip blocked from as many networks as possible
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; None of those scenarios is uninteresting, but I think my theory
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; fits best.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Thoughts?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; ] On Behalf Of Kevin Stech
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent: Tuesday, December 07, 2010 09:30
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: 'Marko Papic'; 'Analyst List'
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: it@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: RE: Wikileaks is attacking us
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; If these nerds were going to attack us, they wouldnï¿½t be doing it
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; from their webserver. Thatï¿½s idiotic.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent: Tuesday, December 07, 2010 09:29
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Analyst List
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: Kevin Stech; it@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: Re: Wikileaks is attacking us
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Also, we published the diary on Wikileaks last night... could that
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; have something to do with it?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On 12/7/10 9:27 AM, Marko Papic wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Why us then?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On 12/7/10 9:26 AM, Kevin Stech wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; ï¿½or so someone wants us to think.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; The research box is currently being pounded with Internet traffic,
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; doing a very aggressive, over-the-top, amateurish security scan
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; that is not only annoying, its actually limiting functionality by
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; forcing the system to cope with 1000s of bogus requests. Itï¿½s the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; type of thing that gets your IP address banned, or at least ignored
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; for a while.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; The IP address doing this? 213.251.145.96
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; So who is this asshole at 213.251.145.96? None other than
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Wikileaks. But I donï¿½t think Wikileaks is security scanning us, nor
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; do I even think Wikileaks was hacked and someone is mounting a
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; security scan from there. I think its far more likely that people
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; are spoofing the Wikileaks IP address and acting like as big of an
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; asshole as possible in order to trip everyoneï¿½s automatic security
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; that bans and ignores the offender.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; In a nutshell, I believe someone is spoofing attacks from Wikileaks
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; in order to get their IP address blocked.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Kevin Stech
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Research Director | STRATFOR
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; kevin.stech@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; +1 (512) 744-4086
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Marko Papic
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; STRATFOR
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; 700 Lavaca Street - 900
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Austin, Texas
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; 78701 USA
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; P: + 1-512-744-4094
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; marko.papic@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Marko Papic
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; STRATFOR
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; 700 Lavaca Street - 900
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Austin, Texas
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; 78701 USA
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; P: + 1-512-744-4094
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; marko.papic@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Matthew Powers
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; STRATFOR Researcher
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Matthew.Powers@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Marko Papic
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; STRATFOR
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; 700 Lavaca Street - 900
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Austin, Texas
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; 78701 USA
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; P: + 1-512-744-4094
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; marko.papic@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Marko Papic
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; STRATFOR
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; 700 Lavaca Street - 900
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Austin, Texas
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; 78701 USA
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; P: + 1-512-744-4094
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; marko.papic@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Marko Papic
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; STRATFOR
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; 700 Lavaca Street - 900
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Austin, Texas
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; 78701 USA
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; P: + 1-512-744-4094
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; marko.papic@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 18:40:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1056988_re-wikileaks-is-attacking-us-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1057220</id>
    <title>Re: Discussion- Assange Arrested
</title>
    <description>Depends on what charges would stick.  Bankrupt the arsehole first, ruin
his life.  Give him 7-12 yrs for conspiracy. 

Sources will die or have died is what I've been told, which is a very
conservative but reasonable assessment.  

In looking at the Wiki docs, you can easily ID a few sources if desired,
e.g., the plot to whack the VOA broadcaster by the Iranians. 

Nicolas Miller wrote:
&gt; Fred,
&gt;  what would be the maximum punishment for the charges you listed? has
&gt; there been any sources that has been killed because of wikileaks?
&gt;
&gt; ------------------------------------------------------------------------
&gt; *From: *"Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; *To: *"nathan hughes" &lt;nathan.hughes@stratfor.com&gt;, "Analyst List"
&gt; &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; *Sent: *Tuesday, December 7, 2010 7:38:52 AM
&gt; *Subject: *Re: Discussion- Assange Arrested
&gt;
&gt; Will take weeks for extradition, unless he waves the process.
&gt;
&gt; DOJ (Holder) won't seek prosecution on their own, but look for the GOP
&gt; (Congress) to press for criminal prosecution.
&gt;
&gt; Be easy to indict.
&gt;
&gt; I would pursue Conspiracy and Political Terrorism charges and declassify
&gt; the death of a source someone which I could link to Wiki.
&gt;  
&gt;
&gt; Nate Hughes wrote:
&gt; &gt; Other thought is that I kind of feel like a lot of people were coming
&gt; &gt; around to recognizing his astonishing douchebaggery and he was by this
&gt; &gt; point undermining himself and his organization. If he does get tied up
&gt; &gt; in the legal system, does he come out screaming all the louder? And if
&gt; &gt; he does somehow get imprisoned, does he have the potential in
&gt; &gt; incarceration to actually become the sort of inspirational,
&gt; &gt; martryr-like (forgive the euphamism) figure that he always imagined
&gt; &gt; himself to be in the free world?
&gt; &gt; ------------------------------------------------------------------------
&gt; &gt; *From: * Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; &gt; *Date: *Tue, 7 Dec 2010 04:42:58 -0600 (CST)
&gt; &gt; *To: *Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; &gt; *ReplyTo: * Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; &gt; *Subject: *Discussion- Assange Arrested
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; We had the discussion below on Friday when it was first suggested that
&gt; &gt; Assange would be arrested.  Here's a bit more:
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and
&gt; &gt; public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7.  He is due to
&gt; &gt; appear in a court in Westminster soon to face charges of rape, accused
&gt; &gt; by two woman in Sweden.  Charges of sexual assault rarely are passed
&gt; &gt; through Interpol red notices, like this case, so this is no doubt
&gt; &gt; about trying to disrupt WikiLeaks release of government documents.
&gt; &gt; While it's possible that Assange's arrest could disrupt the long-term
&gt; &gt; viability of WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release of cables in the
&gt; &gt; short-term and governments will now be concerned about what the
&gt; &gt; organization may release in revenge.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; see discussion below.  (revenge = that encrypted 'security' file)
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; ------------------------------------------------------------------------
&gt; &gt; *From: *"Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; &gt; *To: *"Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; &gt; *Sent: *Friday, December 3, 2010 10:23:51 AM
&gt; &gt; *Subject: *Re: [OS] UK/US/AUSTRALIA/CT- WikiLeaks back online, Assange
&gt; &gt; close        to arrest
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; yes, most likely would not stop these.  but it could disrupt whatever
&gt; &gt; might be next.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; Also all this trouble with internet hosting could serve to slow down
&gt; &gt; this set of leaks.  And maybe a combination of wikileaks arrest and
&gt; &gt; server shutdowns could stop it.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; On 12/3/10 9:20 AM, Ben West wrote:
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;     If Assange is running the show and his staff isn't as confident as
&gt; &gt;     he is, then arresting him now could very well stop the flow of
&gt; &gt;     cables. But all it takes is one person to keep it going - or just
&gt; &gt;     dump them all at once if it gets too dicey, and these files have
&gt; &gt;     been very widely distributed so far. I can't imagine anyone
&gt; &gt;     reclaiming all the documents now.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;     On 12/3/2010 8:54 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;         yeah also remember there was an article by nytimes i think
&gt; &gt;         that alot of people on his staff were uncomfortable with the
&gt; &gt;         way things were playing out, so without him there they may
&gt; &gt;         loose nerve or come to their better senses
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;         On 12/3/10 8:48 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;             Yes, like Fred's source pointed out--arrest and trial
&gt; &gt;             would just be a political circus.  It would probably not
&gt; &gt;             disrupt wikileaks.  BUT, occasonally a leader makes an
&gt; &gt;             organization, and maybe no one as capable will be willing
&gt; &gt;             to fill his shoes.  Or at least, won't be able to get as
&gt; &gt;             much pubilicity for wikileaks.  As you also said, it could
&gt; &gt;             tarnish both Assange's and Wikileaks' repution.  That coul
&gt; &gt;             dserve to discredit and undermine the group.  Maybe people
&gt; &gt;             would be less inclined to leak to it, or the public would
&gt; &gt;             be less inclined to pay attention--or more importantly
&gt; &gt;             support wikileaks financially.  Though I admit the chance
&gt; &gt;             of this causing the public to pay less attention is
&gt; &gt;             minimal, and in fact would probably increase attention on
&gt; &gt;             the guy.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;             (though personally, getting a rapist off the street is
&gt; &gt;             getting a rapist off the street.  Also, his mom owns a
&gt; &gt;             puppet theater...)
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;             On 12/3/10 8:38 AM, Ben West wrote:
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                 What would the overall significance of his arrest be?
&gt; &gt;                 It's likely that the files are backed up elsewhere and
&gt; &gt;                 that someone else could give the go-ahead for
&gt; &gt;                 releasing them (that could very well already be the
&gt; &gt;                 case) and if his back-ups are anything like Assange,
&gt; &gt;                 they would welcome the publicity that would come to
&gt; &gt;                 them by filling his shoes.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                 If the British got custody of him, they could conduct
&gt; &gt;                 searches or evidence that would support rape charges
&gt; &gt;                 and, if they happened to find material regarding the
&gt; &gt;                 leaks, that could lead to new charges. But this has
&gt; &gt;                 been coming for a while, and if Assange was smart, he
&gt; &gt;                 would have turned over any really sensitive stuff by
&gt; &gt;                 now, which would decrease the likelihood of police
&gt; &gt;                 finding anything juicy.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                 Seems to me that all this really does is tarnish his
&gt; &gt;                 reputation and make him look like scum. It provides
&gt; &gt;                 some public distraction from all the leaked documents,
&gt; &gt;                 but doesn't undermine their impact - just undermines
&gt; &gt;                 the character of the person who facilitated the leaks.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                 any other thoughts?
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                 On 12/3/2010 7:40 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                     I may have sent this out before- Assange walking
&gt; &gt;                     out of a CNN interview.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lisa9XTRLb4
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                     just shows how far his head is up his ass.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                     On 12/3/10 7:32 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                         looks like Assange is in the UK and they might
&gt; &gt;                         actually roll on him.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                         On 12/3/10 7:31 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                             *OG source
&gt; &gt;                             *
&gt; &gt;                             Net closes on Assange: arrest by British
&gt; &gt;                             police expected in days*
&gt; &gt;                             By Mark Hughes and Jerome Taylor
&gt; &gt;                             Friday, 3 December 2010
&gt; &gt;                            
&gt; http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/net-closes-on-assange-arrest-by-british-police-expected-in-days-2149805.html
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                             Julian Assange, the WikiLeaks founder, is
&gt; &gt;                             expected to be arrested in the coming days
&gt; &gt;                             after Swedish prosecutors filed a new
&gt; &gt;                             warrant with British authorities.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                             The Independent revealed yesterday that a
&gt; &gt;                             procedural error with the European Arrest
&gt; &gt;                             Warrant had delayed the arrest of the
&gt; &gt;                             39-year-old Australian, who is wanted in
&gt; &gt;                             Sweden over sexual allegations but has
&gt; &gt;                             been in England since October.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                             Police in Gothenburg claim they have now
&gt; &gt;                             submitted a fresh warrant to the Serious
&gt; &gt;                             Organised Crime Agency. Soca is expected
&gt; &gt;                             to instruct Scotland Yard to arrest Mr
&gt; &gt;                             Assange and have him appear before an
&gt; &gt;                             extradition hearing â€“ although as of last
&gt; &gt;                             night the Metropolitan Police had yet to
&gt; &gt;                             receive the warrant.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                             Police sources have previously said that
&gt; &gt;                             they received a letter from Mr Assange's
&gt; &gt;                             UK-based lawyer, Mark Stephens, containing
&gt; &gt;                             information about how to contact Mr
&gt; &gt;                             Assange should they need to.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                             Details of the new arrest warrant came as
&gt; &gt;                             a last-ditch attempt to have the
&gt; &gt;                             allegations against Mr Assange dropped
&gt; &gt;                             failed. Sweden's highest court upheld the
&gt; &gt;                             arrest order and refused to let him appeal
&gt; &gt;                             against a lower court's ruling.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                             Last night, Mr Assange's family spoke of
&gt; &gt;                             their fears for his safety after
&gt; &gt;                             increasingly shrill statements from
&gt; &gt;                             American commentators who have called for
&gt; &gt;                             his assassination. His mother, Christine
&gt; &gt;                             Assange, said "the forces that he's
&gt; &gt;                             challenging are too big".
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                             The arrest warrant filed with Soca states
&gt; &gt;                             that he was wanted on suspicion of rape,
&gt; &gt;                             sexual molestation and unlawful coercion.
&gt; &gt;                             But Soca requested a new warrant. A
&gt; &gt;                             spokeswoman for the Swedish National
&gt; &gt;                             Police Board told the BBC that the
&gt; &gt;                             original one had been refused because it
&gt; &gt;                             listed only the maximum penalty for the
&gt; &gt;                             most serious crime alleged, rather than
&gt; &gt;                             for all of the crimes.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                             When the arrest is made, Mr Assange will
&gt; &gt;                             be taken before an extradition hearing at
&gt; &gt;                             Westminster magistrates' court. If he
&gt; &gt;                             refuses to be extradited, a judge will
&gt; &gt;                             preside over an extradition hearing and
&gt; &gt;                             will rule whether he should be sent to
&gt; &gt;                             Sweden or discharged.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                             Last night, Mr Stephens said he would
&gt; &gt;                             challenge any arrest in British courts.
&gt; &gt;                             "The process in this case has been so
&gt; &gt;                             utterly irregular that the chances of a
&gt; &gt;                             valid arrest warrant being submitted to me
&gt; &gt;                             are very small," he said. Mr Stephens has
&gt; &gt;                             accused Swedish prosecutors of launching a
&gt; &gt;                             witch-hunt against his client, who
&gt; &gt;                             strongly denies the rape allegations and
&gt; &gt;                             says he is being smeared because of the
&gt; &gt;                             exposÃ©s published by his website.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                             He has maintained that Swedish prosecutors
&gt; &gt;                             have yet to provide any evidence against
&gt; &gt;                             Mr Assange and have ignored his requests
&gt; &gt;                             to meet with them. He also expressed
&gt; &gt;                             concerns at the way the UK and Swedish
&gt; &gt;                             authorities were handling the case.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                             "I feel like I am sitting in the middle of
&gt; &gt;                             a surreal Swedish fairytale," he said.
&gt; &gt;                             "The trolls keep threatening to come on
&gt; &gt;                             and keep making noises off stage. But at
&gt; &gt;                             the moment, no appearance from them."
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                             In an interview with an Australian
&gt; &gt;                             newspaper, Mr Assange's mother defended
&gt; &gt;                             her son and lambasted hawks in the US who
&gt; &gt;                             have called for his death.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                             Ms Assange, who runs a puppet theatre in
&gt; &gt;                             Noosa, a Queensland beach resort, defended
&gt; &gt;                             her son's decision to publish thousands of
&gt; &gt;                             classified US documents on the website.
&gt; &gt;                             "He sees what he's doing as doing a good
&gt; &gt;                             thing in the world â€“ fighting baddies, if
&gt; &gt;                             you like," she told Queensland's
&gt; Courier-Mail.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                             Ms Assange â€“ who does not even own a
&gt; &gt;                             computer â€“ described her son as a hero of
&gt; &gt;                             the internet. But she added that she
&gt; &gt;                             feared he had "gotten too smart for
&gt; &gt;                             himself", saying: "I'm concerned it's
&gt; &gt;                             gotten too big and the forces that he's
&gt; &gt;                             challenging are too big." She did not want
&gt; &gt;                             him "hunted down and jailed".
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                             On 12/3/10 7:24 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                                 *WikiLeaks back online, Assange close
&gt; &gt;                                 to arrest*
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                                 Updated 2 hours 45 minutes ago
&gt; &gt;                                
&gt; http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/12/03/3084384.htm
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                                 The WikiLeaks website is back online
&gt; &gt;                                 with a new Swiss address after its
&gt; &gt;                                 previous domain name was killed.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                                 The whistleblower website's original
&gt; &gt;                                 domain host, EveryDNS.net, says it
&gt; &gt;                                 terminated its services because
&gt; &gt;                                 Wikileaks had been coming under
&gt; &gt;                                 "massive" cyber attacks.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                                 The new address - wikileaks.ch - was
&gt; &gt;                                 put online six hours after the
&gt; &gt;                                 original site wikileaks.org was killed.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                                 An internet trace of the new domain
&gt; &gt;                                 name suggests that the site itself is
&gt; &gt;                                 still hosted in Sweden and in France.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                                 Web users accessing the wikileaks.ch
&gt; &gt;                                 address are directed to a page under
&gt; &gt;                                 the URL http://213.251.145.96/ which
&gt; &gt;                                 gives them access to the former site,
&gt; &gt;                                 including a massive trove of leaked US
&gt; &gt;                                 diplomatic traffic.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                                 The WikiLeaks website released more
&gt; &gt;                                 than 250,000 secret US diplomatic
&gt; &gt;                                 cables this week, which has left
&gt; &gt;                                 governments around the world
&gt; &gt;                                 scrambling to deal with the fallout.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                                 Meanwhile, British media reports
&gt; &gt;                                 Scotland Yard could arrest the site's
&gt; &gt;                                 founder Julian Assange within days.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                                 Prosecutors in Sweden want to question
&gt; &gt;                                 Mr Assange over alleged sex crimes
&gt; &gt;                                 involving two women during a visit to
&gt; &gt;                                 Stockholm in August.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                                 Mr Assange, who was born in Australia,
&gt; &gt;                                 has not been charged and he denies the
&gt; &gt;                                 allegations.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                                 He reportedly avoided arrest this week
&gt; &gt;                                 because Swedish authorities had filled
&gt; &gt;                                 out an Interpol red notice incorrectly.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                                 Britain's Independent newspaper
&gt; &gt;                                 reports that police know Mr Assange's
&gt; &gt;                                 whereabouts in England and are
&gt; &gt;                                 expected to arrest him in the coming
&gt; days.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                                 Mr Assange's Stockholm-based lawyer
&gt; &gt;                                 Bjoern Hurtig says he will fight his
&gt; &gt;                                 client's extradition to Sweden in the
&gt; &gt;                                 event of his arrest.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                                 "Together with my British colleague
&gt; &gt;                                 Mark Stephens and international
&gt; &gt;                                 experts, we will fight the extradition
&gt; &gt;                                 warrants," he said.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                                 A WikiLeaks spokesman says Mr Assange
&gt; &gt;                                 has to remain out of the public eye
&gt; &gt;                                 because he is facing assassination
&gt; &gt;                                 threats following the whistleblowing
&gt; &gt;                                 website's publication of the secret
&gt; &gt;                                 cables.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                                 Several US senators have also called
&gt; &gt;                                 for him to be charged with espionage.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                                 Senator Dianne Feinstein says the leak
&gt; &gt;                                 is a serious breach of national
&gt; &gt;                                 security and action must be taken.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                                 "We have reviewed the espionage
&gt; &gt;                                 statutes and we believe it qualifies,"
&gt; &gt;                                 she said.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                                 "That this, allowed to be carried out,
&gt; &gt;                                 incapacitates this nation to carry out
&gt; &gt;                                 business."
&gt; &gt;                                 --
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                                 Sean Noonan
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                                 Tactical Analyst
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                                 Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                                 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                                 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                                 www.stratfor.com
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                             --
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                             Sean Noonan
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                             Tactical Analyst
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                             Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                             www.stratfor.com
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                         --
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                         Sean Noonan
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                         Tactical Analyst
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                         Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                         www.stratfor.com
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                     --
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                     Sean Noonan
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                     Tactical Analyst
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                     Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                     www.stratfor.com
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;                 --
&gt; &gt;                 Ben West
&gt; &gt;                 Tactical Analyst
&gt; &gt;                 STRATFOR
&gt; &gt;                 Austin, TX
&gt; &gt;                          
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;             --
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;             Sean Noonan
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;             Tactical Analyst
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;             Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;             www.stratfor.com
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;         --
&gt; &gt;         Michael Wilson
&gt; &gt;         Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
&gt; &gt;         Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
&gt; &gt;         Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;              
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;     --
&gt; &gt;     Ben West
&gt; &gt;     Tactical Analyst
&gt; &gt;     STRATFOR
&gt; &gt;     Austin, TX
&gt; &gt;        
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; --
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; Sean Noonan
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; Tactical Analyst
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; www.stratfor.com
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; --
&gt; &gt; Sean Noonan
&gt; &gt; Tactical Analyst
&gt; &gt; Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt; &gt; Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt; &gt; Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt; &gt; www.stratfor.com
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt;
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 14:47:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1057220_re-discussion-assange-arrested-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1057231</id>
    <title>RE: USE ME Re: Discussion- Assange Arrested
</title>
    <description>   Yeah its like, phew, good thing Napster got its ass owned and people don't
   share pirated media anymore.

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Reva Bhalla
   Sent: Tuesday, December 07, 2010 07:53
   To: Analyst List
   Cc: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: USE ME Re: Discussion- Assange Arrested

    

   Wikileaks itself may struggle to survive but the idea that's put out
   there, that anyone with the bandwidth and servers to support such a system
   can act as a prime outlet of leaks. Ppl are obsessed with this kind of
   stuff. The idea behind it won't die

   Sent from my iPhone

   On Dec 7, 2010, at 8:43 AM, Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

     *Here's my full set of thoughts.  This may be a little too informal for
     our regular articles.  Hopefully this addresses the questions that have
     already come up. 

     London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and
     public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7.  He is due to
     appear in a court in Westminster soon to face charges of rape, accused
     by two woman in Sweden.  Charges of sexual assault rarely are passed
     through Interpol red notices, like this case, so this is no doubt about
     trying to disrupt WikiLeaks release of government documents.  While it's
     possible that Assange's arrest could disrupt the long-term viability of
     WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release of cables in the short-term and
     governments will now be concerned about what the organization may
     release in revenge.

     Leadership is extremely important in non-governmental organizations that
     have not institutionalized.  From terrorist grous  to charities [LINK:
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090923_death_top_indonesian_militant],
     these organizations often ebb and flow along with their founders. 
     WikiLeaks is a new organization that has a created a novel method for an
     old practice- leaking confidential government information in an attempt
     to influence politics.  Leaking will not go away with Assange's arrest,
     but WikiLeaks might. 

     WikiLeaks created itself with Assange as the only public face-- he leads
     supports, drives donations, and faces criticism.  This has made many in
     the organization unhappy, and some have left it after disagreeing with
     him.  If Assange were to face charges in Sweden for sexual assault or
     new charges in the UK or US and was found guilty, WikiLeaks would still
     need someone to operate it.  Assange may have someone waiting in the
     wings, but that is not evident. 

     WikiLeaks has also suffered logistically and as a brand.  As national
     governments put pressure on its infrastructure, its websites have been
     shut and most importantly its main source of funding- PayPal- has closed
     WikiLeaks account.  With such pressure and government monitoring, future
     leakers may be too afraid of getting intercepted and go elsewhere. 
     Moreover, this new set of documents have not worked out like Assange
     expected- the public is not angry at the State Department, but many are
     angry at Assange and his organization. 

     Assange's arrest won't stop the continued leaks of this large batch of
     US State Department cables.  It also won't shut down WikiLeaks, which
     still maintains its website and the ability to collect information from
     leakers.  So in the short-term, WikiLeaks will maintain.  The question
     remains if it has created a truly sustainable institutions-- one where
     leaders are replacable, members can adapt to changing circumstance, and
     representatives can aid and inspire new leakers. 

     If Asange is extradited to Sweden and tried of one count of unlawful
     coercion, two counts of sexual molestation and one count of rape, will
     he be able to maintain WikiLeaks image?  That is hard to say, but
     growing public criticism of him indicates his inability to grow
     WikiLeaks support base.  Western govrenments also fear whatever is
     contained in his ___ file, for which he threatens to release an
     encryption key if something happens to him.  WikiLeaks has already
     released its most damaging documents-- its attempt to get public
     attention-- and they haven't amounted to much.  This new file likely
     contains no more damaging information, but instead is full of names. 
     The names of sources who will be at risk and those of diplomats,
     military or intelligence officers who could lose their jobs. 

     WikiLeaks is now facing a conundrum that all new organizations do--the
     ability to maintain and transition leadership through adverse
     circumstances.  Maybe Assange will be released quickly-- STRATFOR cannot
     speak to the veracity of the charges against him-- but if he isn't,
     WikiLeaks will struggle to survive. 

     On 12/7/10 6:36 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

     I would imagine the most politically "exciting" stuff has been published
     (much of which we already knew) but some of the less sexy things may be
     more damaging when released or released uncensored b/c it burns sources
     and people's careers (a few people have already lost their jobs in
     western countries...what about sources in less democratic countries)

     On 12/7/10 5:18 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

     I am not clear about your argument in the last line. Why this arrest
     could disrupt long-term viability of Wikileaks? I would say the
     opposite, that there might be short-term disruptions (latest release was
     two days ago) but Wikileaks will work in the long-term. They already
     have over 250K documents and if they release them at the same pace,
     Wikileaks will have very long-term viability. Also, Ben's point below
     about possibly backed up documents is worth considering. 

      

     One more question. How do we now that Wikileaks has more sensitive
     information that governments should be concerned about as a revenge?
     Recall George's initial argument that they probably published most
     sensitive information at the very beginning to draw attention. 

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Tuesday, December 7, 2010 12:42:49 PM
     Subject: Discussion- Assange Arrested

     We had the discussion below on Friday when it was first suggested that
     Assange would be arrested.  Here's a bit more:

     London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and
     public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7.  He is due to
     appear in a court in Westminster soon to face charges of rape, accused
     by two woman in Sweden.  Charges of sexual assault rarely are passed
     through Interpol red notices, like this case, so this is no doubt about
     trying to disrupt WikiLeaks release of government documents.  While it's
     possible that Assange's arrest could disrupt the long-term viability of
     WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release of cables in the short-term and
     governments will now be concerned about what the organization may
     release in revenge.

     see discussion below.  (revenge = that encrypted 'security' file)

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Friday, December 3, 2010 10:23:51 AM
     Subject: Re: [OS] UK/US/AUSTRALIA/CT- WikiLeaks back online, Assange
     close        to arrest

     yes, most likely would not stop these.  but it could disrupt whatever
     might be next. 

     Also all this trouble with internet hosting could serve to slow down
     this set of leaks.  And maybe a combination of wikileaks arrest and
     server shutdowns could stop it. 

     On 12/3/10 9:20 AM, Ben West wrote:

     If Assange is running the show and his staff isn't as confident as he
     is, then arresting him now could very well stop the flow of cables. But
     all it takes is one person to keep it going - or just dump them all at
     once if it gets too dicey, and these files have been very widely
     distributed so far. I can't imagine anyone reclaiming all the documents
     now.

     On 12/3/2010 8:54 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

     yeah also remember there was an article by nytimes i think that alot of
     people on his staff were uncomfortable with the way things were playing
     out, so without him there they may loose nerve or come to their better
     senses

     On 12/3/10 8:48 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     Yes, like Fred's source pointed out--arrest and trial would just be a
     political circus.  It would probably not disrupt wikileaks.  BUT,
     occasonally a leader makes an organization, and maybe no one as capable
     will be willing to fill his shoes.  Or at least, won't be able to get as
     much pubilicity for wikileaks.  As you also said, it could tarnish both
     Assange's and Wikileaks' repution.  That coul dserve to discredit and
     undermine the group.  Maybe people would be less inclined to leak to it,
     or the public would be less inclined to pay attention--or more
     importantly support wikileaks financially.  Though I admit the chance of
     this causing the public to pay less attention is minimal, and in fact
     would probably increase attention on the guy. 

     (though personally, getting a rapist off the street is getting a rapist
     off the street.  Also, his mom owns a puppet theater...)

     On 12/3/10 8:38 AM, Ben West wrote:

     What would the overall significance of his arrest be? It's likely that
     the files are backed up elsewhere and that someone else could give the
     go-ahead for releasing them (that could very well already be the case)
     and if his back-ups are anything like Assange, they would welcome the
     publicity that would come to them by filling his shoes.

     If the British got custody of him, they could conduct searches or
     evidence that would support rape charges and, if they happened to find
     material regarding the leaks, that could lead to new charges. But this
     has been coming for a while, and if Assange was smart, he would have
     turned over any really sensitive stuff by now, which would decrease the
     likelihood of police finding anything juicy.

     Seems to me that all this really does is tarnish his reputation and make
     him look like scum. It provides some public distraction from all the
     leaked documents, but doesn't undermine their impact - just undermines
     the character of the person who facilitated the leaks.

     any other thoughts?

     On 12/3/2010 7:40 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     I may have sent this out before- Assange walking out of a CNN interview.

     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lisa9XTRLb4

     just shows how far his head is up his ass. 

     On 12/3/10 7:32 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     looks like Assange is in the UK and they might actually roll on him.

     On 12/3/10 7:31 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     *OG source
     Net closes on Assange: arrest by British police expected in days
     By Mark Hughes and Jerome Taylor
     Friday, 3 December 2010
     http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/net-closes-on-assange-arrest-by-british-police-expected-in-days-2149805.html

     Julian Assange, the WikiLeaks founder, is expected to be arrested in the
     coming days after Swedish prosecutors filed a new warrant with British
     authorities.

     The Independent revealed yesterday that a procedural error with the
     European Arrest Warrant had delayed the arrest of the 39-year-old
     Australian, who is wanted in Sweden over sexual allegations but has been
     in England since October.

     Police in Gothenburg claim they have now submitted a fresh warrant to
     the Serious Organised Crime Agency. Soca is expected to instruct
     Scotland Yard to arrest Mr Assange and have him appear before an
     extradition hearing - although as of last night the Metropolitan Police
     had yet to receive the warrant.

     Police sources have previously said that they received a letter from Mr
     Assange's UK-based lawyer, Mark Stephens, containing information about
     how to contact Mr Assange should they need to.

     Details of the new arrest warrant came as a last-ditch attempt to have
     the allegations against Mr Assange dropped failed. Sweden's highest
     court upheld the arrest order and refused to let him appeal against a
     lower court's ruling.

     Last night, Mr Assange's family spoke of their fears for his safety
     after increasingly shrill statements from American commentators who have
     called for his assassination. His mother, Christine Assange, said "the
     forces that he's challenging are too big".

     The arrest warrant filed with Soca states that he was wanted on
     suspicion of rape, sexual molestation and unlawful coercion. But Soca
     requested a new warrant. A spokeswoman for the Swedish National Police
     Board told the BBC that the original one had been refused because it
     listed only the maximum penalty for the most serious crime alleged,
     rather than for all of the crimes.

     When the arrest is made, Mr Assange will be taken before an extradition
     hearing at Westminster magistrates' court. If he refuses to be
     extradited, a judge will preside over an extradition hearing and will
     rule whether he should be sent to Sweden or discharged.

     Last night, Mr Stephens said he would challenge any arrest in British
     courts. "The process in this case has been so utterly irregular that the
     chances of a valid arrest warrant being submitted to me are very small,"
     he said. Mr Stephens has accused Swedish prosecutors of launching a
     witch-hunt against his client, who strongly denies the rape allegations
     and says he is being smeared because of the exposes published by his
     website.

     He has maintained that Swedish prosecutors have yet to provide any
     evidence against Mr Assange and have ignored his requests to meet with
     them. He also expressed concerns at the way the UK and Swedish
     authorities were handling the case.

     "I feel like I am sitting in the middle of a surreal Swedish fairytale,"
     he said. "The trolls keep threatening to come on and keep making noises
     off stage. But at the moment, no appearance from them."

     In an interview with an Australian newspaper, Mr Assange's mother
     defended her son and lambasted hawks in the US who have called for his
     death.

     Ms Assange, who runs a puppet theatre in Noosa, a Queensland beach
     resort, defended her son's decision to publish thousands of classified
     US documents on the website. "He sees what he's doing as doing a good
     thing in the world - fighting baddies, if you like," she told
     Queensland's Courier-Mail.

     Ms Assange - who does not even own a computer - described her son as a
     hero of the internet. But she added that she feared he had "gotten too
     smart for himself", saying: "I'm concerned it's gotten too big and the
     forces that he's challenging are too big." She did not want him "hunted
     down and jailed".

     On 12/3/10 7:24 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     WikiLeaks back online, Assange close to arrest

     Updated 2 hours 45 minutes ago
     http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/12/03/3084384.htm

     The WikiLeaks website is back online with a new Swiss address after its
     previous domain name was killed.

     The whistleblower website's original domain host, EveryDNS.net, says it
     terminated its services because Wikileaks had been coming under
     "massive" cyber attacks.

     The new address - wikileaks.ch - was put online six hours after the
     original site wikileaks.org was killed.

     An internet trace of the new domain name suggests that the site itself
     is still hosted in Sweden and in France.

     Web users accessing the wikileaks.ch address are directed to a page
     under the URL http://213.251.145.96/ which gives them access to the
     former site, including a massive trove of leaked US diplomatic traffic.

     The WikiLeaks website released more than 250,000 secret US diplomatic
     cables this week, which has left governments around the world scrambling
     to deal with the fallout.

     Meanwhile, British media reports Scotland Yard could arrest the site's
     founder Julian Assange within days.

     Prosecutors in Sweden want to question Mr Assange over alleged sex
     crimes involving two women during a visit to Stockholm in August.

     Mr Assange, who was born in Australia, has not been charged and he
     denies the allegations.

     He reportedly avoided arrest this week because Swedish authorities had
     filled out an Interpol red notice incorrectly.

     Britain's Independent newspaper reports that police know Mr Assange's
     whereabouts in England and are expected to arrest him in the coming
     days.

     Mr Assange's Stockholm-based lawyer Bjoern Hurtig says he will fight his
     client's extradition to Sweden in the event of his arrest.

     "Together with my British colleague Mark Stephens and international
     experts, we will fight the extradition warrants," he said.

     A WikiLeaks spokesman says Mr Assange has to remain out of the public
     eye because he is facing assassination threats following the
     whistleblowing website's publication of the secret cables.

     Several US senators have also called for him to be charged with
     espionage.

     Senator Dianne Feinstein says the leak is a serious breach of national
     security and action must be taken.

     "We have reviewed the espionage statutes and we believe it qualifies,"
     she said.

     "That this, allowed to be carried out, incapacitates this nation to
     carry out business."

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

      

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

      

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

      

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

      

 --

 Ben West

 Tactical Analyst

 STRATFOR

 Austin, TX

      

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

      

 --

 Michael Wilson

 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR

 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112

 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com

  

      

 --

 Ben West

 Tactical Analyst

 STRATFOR

 Austin, TX

      

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

     --
     Sean Noonan
     Tactical Analyst
     Office: +1 512-279-9479
     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
     www.stratfor.com

     --
     --
     Emre Dogru
     STRATFOR  
     Cell: +90.532.465.7514
     Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
     emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
     www.stratfor.com

 --

 Michael Wilson

 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR

 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112

 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com

  

      

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 14:58:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1057231_re-use-me-re-discussion-assange-arrested-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kevin.stech@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1058451</id>
    <title>Re: diary for comment
</title>
    <description>   Nice work threading the needle on this one. Couple thoughts:

   Make clear and link back to our diary from last week that no serious
   person doubts that international diplomacy entails duplicity and
   deception. Read machiavelli.

   Also, whatever wikileaks can claim to have achieved, it has also
   substantially undermined candid exchange between nations. Diplomacy
   necessarily and has always entailed discretion and confidence. Without
   unveilling anything of watergate or even mcchrystal rolling stone
   revelatory, they've (without cause, other than the principle of the thing)
   thrown back the curtain that allows nations to function in a pragmatic
   sense, if not a rhetorical one -- thereby undermining the process without
   any clear gain. (I'm rambling on this graph a bit so don't run with it
   verbatim, but trying to emphasize that he's undermined how nations have
   interacted for hundreds of years for no clear reason, so as fun as these
   are to read, it's a little unproductive in the middle of a period of
   serious geopolitical maneuvering...)

   "...technological advancements have long since minimized the utility of
   mobile archery..." Need something about horse-mobile

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Mon, 6 Dec 2010 19:59:35 -0600 (CST)
   To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: diary for comment

   Julian Assange, spokesman for Wikileaks, said over the weekend that
   "geopolitics will be separated into pre- and post- Cablegate phases." A
   number of developments on Monday seemed to support his bold thesis. But
   STRATFOR nonetheless disagrees. 

    

   Another batch of released cables on Monday included a note from the U.S.
   Secretary of State Hilary Clinton asking U.S. diplomats abroad to gather a
   list of sites sensitive to U.S. national security interests. In the cable,
   Clinton asked for an updated list of sites "which, if destroyed, disrupted
   or exploited, would likely have an immediate and deleterious effect on the
   United States." The disclosure sparked immediate outrage with U.S.
   officials, with the U.S. State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley
   commenting that the release "amounts to giving a targeting list to groups
   like al-Qaida".

    

   Meanwhile, STRATFOR sources in the U.S. as well as foreign intelligence
   agencies and diplomatic corps have continued on Monday to speak to us
   about how the leaks have indeed had a negative effect on their ability to
   conduct diplomatic business as usual. A senior foreign diplomat of a
   critical country to Washington's interests working inside the U.S.
   revealed to us that they are apprehensively waiting to see if their name
   is in the cables. Their candor with U.S. diplomats - often done at the
   expense of home government and as an attempt to build credibility with
   U.S. counterparts - may very well cost them their job if conversations are
   revealed. A precedent has been set within that country's foreign ministry,
   the diplomat acknowledged, of pulling back on speaking honestly about
   government deficiencies with U.S. officials.

    

   U.S. intelligence and diplomatic officials have also expressed
   frustration, with particularly negative implications for operations in the
   Middle East.  The U.S. intelligence community is also looking for ways to
   further compartmentalize information (LINK:
   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20101201_dispatch_wikileaks_and_implications_intelligence_sharing
   ) to prohibit similar disclosures in the future.

    

   Repercussions of Cablegate therefore are serious and global, not confined
   only to American statecraft. Diplomacy and intelligence professions may
   very well consider classifying its eras as pre- and post- Cablegate.

    

   But we take issue with the thesis that the Cablegate will mark geopolitics
   itself. Geopolitics is a set of constraints imposed primarily by geography
   -- with demographics and technology playing roles as well -- that limit
   strategic options for leaders. Belgium may want to be a world power - and
   it may have dabbled in the pursuit of such power in the jungles of the
   Congo -- but its existence is defined by its geography as a buffer between
   France and Germany. Mongolia may once have dominated vast stretches of the
   Eurasian steppe, but technological advancements have long since minimized
   the utility of mobile archery.

    

   One could argue that Cablegate introduces a new set of constraints,
   constraints of open information that will limit how governments pursue
   their national interests. But the episode does not actually affect one set
   of countries disproportionately over others. In fact, as much as the U.S.
   will now be hampered in intelligence sharing among its diplomats and
   intelligence officials a much less technologically advanced country will
   be hampered in getting its point across in a frank manner. It is not clear
   if anyone wins or loses. Power structures established by geography,
   demographics and technology remain unaffected. One continues to be either
   constrained or enabled by their particular circumstances.

    

   Diplomacy and intelligence work are crafts of manipulating and alleviating
   the constraints of geopolitics.  They are not constraints or enablers
   themselves. Diplomats and intelligence officials will adapt to the new set
   of constraints in their work --much as they adapted to the telegraph or
   the photocopy machine -- and this will take time, resources and training.
   But ultimately geopolitics remains unaffected.

    

   Perhaps we have misread Assange's point. Perhaps behind the thesis that
   Cablegate would change geopolitics is not a simple argument of new
   constraints and enablers emerging, but rather the assumption that the
   revelation of supposed cynicism and insidious scheming of U.S. diplomats
   would by itself create a call for change within the American - and global
   -- society. This has not happened. In fact, the U.S. public - as well as
   publics across the globe - seem to be very much aware of what their
   diplomats are doing and how they are going about their business. They are,
   as Joseph Stalin once wrote, quite aware that "sincere diplomacy is no
   more possible than dry water or wooden iron."

    

    

   --

   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

   Marko Papic

   Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

   STRATFOR

   700 Lavaca Street - 900

   Austin, Texas

   78701 USA

   P: + 1-512-744-4094

   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 03:13:46</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1058451_re-diary-for-comment-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>nathan.hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1059823</id>
    <title>RE: Counterterrorism: Shifting from the Who to the How
</title>
    <description>   Um, well he kept the target set fairly confined. Tyrants, ministers,
   princes, spooks, crusaders, journalists.....
    
   It was the attackers and types of attacks he attempts to expand.
    
    
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Nate Hughes
   Sent: Tuesday, November 03, 2009 4:38 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: Counterterrorism: Shifting from the Who to the How
   one overall thought:

   you're talking about anything from a coffee shop to a line at the DMV
   being a potential target. While you suggest broader and more extensive
   countersurveillance and ied training and awareness, that's really only
   great in an ideal world. One of the most important things al-Wuhayshi does
   here is expand the target set dramatically. You can't defend everything,
   especially in this sort of scenario. While it may not be a strategic
   threat, any police department can only really expand its
   counter-surveillance capabilities and awareness so far. It can give some
   basic classes to most of its officers, perhaps, but it cannot provide
   extensive operational experience and training to many more officers than
   it already does.

   So you still have to make choices about what you defend, and what
   al-Wuhayshi has done is run around that problem and attempted to make
   everything at risk. One point is that you can't actually defend everything
   -- and you can't attempt to dramatically expand protection without
   altering how society functions.

   So in the other sense, al-Wuhayshi just reminds us that we're all
   vulnerable all the time, but a little individual situational awareness can
   sometimes go a long way.

   comments within.

     Counterterrorism: Shifting from the Who to the How

     In the eleventh edition of the online magazine [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/yemen_al_qaedas_resurgence ] Sada
     al-Malahim (The Echo of Battle) which was released to jihadist Web sites
     last week, the leader of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) [ link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090128_al_qaeda_arabian_peninsula_desperation_or_new_life
     ] Nasir al-Wuhayshi, wrote an article in which he called for jihadists
     to conduct simple attacks against a variety of targets. The targets he
     mentioned included "any tyrant, intelligence den, prince," or "minister"
     (referring to the governments in the Muslim world like Egypt, Saudi
     Arabia and Yemen), and "any crusaders whenever you find one of them,
     like at the airports of the crusader western countries that participate
     in the wars against Muslim, or their living compounds, trains etc."
     (obviously referring to the U.S. and Europe. plenty of infidel housing
     compounds in the ME -- especially KSA, yes?)

     Al-Wuhayshi, an ethnic Yemeni who spent time in Afghanistan serving as a
     lieutenant under Osama Bin Laden, noted these simple attacks could be
     conducted using readily available weapons, such as knives, clubs or
     small improvised explosive devices (IEDs). According to al-Wuhayshi,
     jihadists "don't need to conduct a big effort or spend a lot of money to
     manufacture 10 grams of explosive material more or less" and that they
     should not "waste a long time finding the materials, because you can
     find all these in your mother's kitchen, or at your hand or in any city
     you are in." 

     The fact that these instructions were given by al-Wuhayshi in an
     internet magazine distributed via jihadist chat rooms and not some
     secret meeting with his operational staff demonstrates that they are
     clearly intended to reach [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090805_paying_attention_grassroots ]
     grassroots jihadists - and are not intended just as internal guidance
     for AQAP members. Al- Wuhayshi was encouraging grassroots jihadists to
     "do what Abu al-Khair did" referring to [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090902_aqap_paradigm_shifts_and_lessons_learned 
     ] AQAP member Abdullah Hassan Taleh al-Asiri, the Saudi suicide bomber
     who attempted to kill Saudi Deputy Interior Minister Prince Mohammed bin
     Nayef with a small IED on August 28, 2009.

     The most concerning aspect of al-Wuhayshi's statement is that it is
     largely true. Improvised explosive mixtures are relatively easy to make
     from readily available chemicals -- if a person has the proper training
     -- and attacks using small IEDs or other readily attainable weapons such
     as knives or clubs [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090603_lone_wolf_lessons ] (or firearms
     in the U.S.) are indeed quite simple to conduct.

      even by amateurs (and indeed, targeting diffuse and non-descript soft
     targets with little pre-operational surveillance leaves little room for
     detection)

     As STRATFOR has [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/al_qaeda_2007_continuing_devolution ] noted for
     several years now, with al Qaeda's structure under continual attack and
     no regional al Qaeda franchise groups in the Western Hemisphere, the
     most pressing jihadist threat to the U.S. homeland at present stems from
     grassroots jihadists and not the al Qaeda core. This trend has been
     borne out by the large number of plots and arrests over the past several
     years, to include several so far in 2009. The grassroots have likewise
     proven to pose a critical threat to Europe.

     From a counterterrorism perspective, the problem posed by grassroots
     operatives is that unless they somehow self-identify [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090521_u_s_foiled_plot_and_very_real_grassroots_risk
     ] by contacting a government informant or other person who reports them
     to authorities, or they [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20091021_curious_case_adlene_hicheur ]
     conduct electronic correspondence with a person or organization under
     government scrutiny, they are very difficult to detect.

     The threat posed by grassroots operatives, and the difficulty
     identifying them, highlight the need for counterterrorism programs to
     adopt a proactive, protective intelligence approach to the problem -- an
     approach that focuses on "the how" of militant attacks instead of just
     "the who".

     the saving grace of these grassroots operatives is that their capability
     and resources are far more limited. though they may aspire to more
     advanced attacks like coordinated highjackings of airliners and can
     certainly get lucky and cause damage, they are far more likely than
     trained, experienced and hardened operatives to get caught, blunder or
     otherwise fail when attempting to reach beyond their training (which
     they have none) and capability. Maybe cite richard reade's shoe bombing
     fiasco?
      

     The How

     In the traditional, reactive, approach to counterterrorism, where
     authorities respond to a crime scene after a terrorist attack in order
     to find and arrest the militants responsible for the attack, it is
     customary to focus on "the who" behind the attack. Indeed, in this
     traditional approach, the only time much emphasis is placed on "the how"
     is either in an effort to identify a suspect when the attack was
     conducted by an unknown actor, or to prove that a particular suspect was
     responsible for the attack during a trial. Beyond these limited
     purposes, not much attention is paid to "the how."

     Now, catching and prosecuting those who commit terrorist attacks is a
     good thing, but from our perspective what is even more important is
     preventing the attack in the first place, and prevention requires a
     proactive approach.  In order to pursue such a proactive approach to
     counterterrorism, "the how" becomes the critical question. By studying
     and understanding how attacks are conducted, authorities can then
     establish systems to proactively identify early indicators that attack
     planning is occurring. People involved in that attack planning can then
     be focused on, identified, and action can be taken prevent them from
     conducting the attack(s) they are plotting. This means that focusing on
     "the how" can lead to previously unidentified suspects - those who do
     not self-identify.

     How is the primary question addressed by [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/proactive_tool_protective_intelligence

      ] protective intelligence, which is, at its core, a process for
     proactively identifying and assessing potential threats.  Focusing on
     "the how" then, requires protective intelligence practitioners to
     carefully study the tactics, tradecraft and behavior associated with
     militant actors involved in terrorist attacks in order to search for and
     identify those behaviors before an attack takes place. Many of these
     behaviors are not by themselves criminal in nature, visiting a public
     building and observing the security measures or standing on the street
     to watch the arrival of a VIP at her office are not illegal, but they
     can be indicators that an attack is being plotted, and in the grand
     scheme of things those legal activities could turn out to be overt
     actions in furtherance of an illegal conspiracy to conduct the attack -
     but even in a case where a conspiracy cannot be proves, steps can be
     still taken to prevent a potential attack and to mitigate the risk posed
     by the people involved.  

     Protective intelligence is based on the fact that attacks don't just
     happen out of the blue. well, some illconceived ones happen with almost
     no pre-op surveillance. need to mention that they do happen. Pre-op
     surveillance/intel and general sit. awareness doesn't get you
     everything, but done well it can significantly reduce attacks that
     actually are carried out and their success, right?  Rather, every
     terrorist attack follows a [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/themes/terrorist_attack_cycle ] discernable
     attack cycle, and there are critical points in that cycle where a plot
     is most likely to be detected by an outside observer and the critical
     activity that happens at these points can then be looked for. Among the
     most vulnerable times of in the attack cycle are while surveillance is
     being conducted and weapons are being acquired, but there are other,
     less obvious points where such activity can be spotted by someone who is
     looking for it.

     In order to really understand "the how", protective intelligence
     practitioners cannot just simply acknowledge that something like
     surveillance occurs. Rather they must turn a powerful lens on topics
     like pre-operational surveillance in order to study them at a granular
     level so that it can be studied and fully understood.  Dissecting an
     activity like [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/themes/surveillance_and_countersurveillance ]
     preoperational surveillance requires not only examining subjects such as
     the demeanor demonstrated by those conducting surveillance prior to an
     attack and the specific methods [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/physical_surveillance_art_blending ] and cover
     for action and cover for status utilized, but identifying certain times
     where surveillance is most likely to happen and certain optimal vantage
     points (called perches in surveillance jargon) where a surveillant is
     most likely to operate from, if he is seeking to surveil a specific
     facility or event.  This type of complex understanding of the topic of
     surveillance can then be used to help focus human or technological
     countersurveillance efforts to where they can be most effective.

     Unfortunately, many counterterrorism investigators are so focused on
     "the who" that they do not focus on collecting this type of granular
     "how" information. We have talked to law enforcement officers
     responsible for investigating some recent grassroots plots, and when
     asked to describe specifically how the suspects had conducted
     surveillance on the intended targets, we were met with blank stares.
     They simply had not paid attention to this type of detail. But this is
     not really the fault of these investigators. Nobody had ever explained
     to them why paying attention to and recording this type of detail was
     important. Additionally, it takes specific training and a practiced eye
     to pick out these details without glossing over them. For example, one
     must first conduct a lot of surveillance in order to become a first-rate
     countersurveillance officer. The experience of conducting surveillance
     allows you to understand what a surveillant must do and where he must be
     in order to conduct surveillance of a specific person or place.

     Similarly, in order to truly understand the tradecraft required to build
     an IED and the specific steps that a militant needs to complete in order
     to do so, it helps to go to an IED school where the investigator learns
     the tradecraft firsthand. Militant actors can and do change over time.
     New groups, causes and ideologies emerge, and specific militants can be
     killed, captured or retire. But the tactical steps that a militant must
     complete in order to conduct an attack are constant. It doesn't matter
     if the person planning an attack is a radical environmentalist, a
     grassroots jihadist or a member of the al Qaeda core, while these
     diverse actors will exhibit different levels of professionalism in
     regard to terrorist tradecraft, they still must follow essentially the
     same steps, accomplish the same tasks and operate in the same areas. 
     Knowing this allows protective intelligence to guard against different
     levels of threats.  

     Of course tactics can be change and be perfected and new tactics can be
     developed -- and technology can emerge (like cell phones and Google
     earth) -- which can alter the way in which some of these activities are
     conducted, or the time it takes to do so. However possessing a profound
     knowledge of the tradecraft and behaviors needed to execute the tactics
     allows protective intelligence practitioners to respond to such changes
     and even alter how they operate. Technology can also help the protective
     intelligence forces in their mission. There are tools such as Trapwire
     that can be focused on critical areas and that can help law enforcement
     and security forces cut through the fog of noise and activity to help
     identify things like hostile surveillance occurring in those critical
     areas identified by protective intelligence. These technological tools
     can help turn the tables on the unknown "who" by focusing on "the how".
     They will likely never replace human observation and experience, but
     they are valuable aids to human perception.

      

     Of course protective intelligence does not have to be the sole
     providence of the authorities. Corporate security managers and private
     security contractors can also apply the principles to protecting the
     people and facilities in their charge.

     Keeping it Simple?

     Al-Wuhayshi is right that it is not difficult to construct improvised
     explosives from a wide range of household chemicals such as peroxide and
     acetone or chlorine and brake fluid. He is also correct that some of
     those explosive mixtures can be concealed in objects ranging from
     electronic items to picture frames or can be employed in forms ranging
     from hand grenades to suicide vests. Likewise, low-level attacks can
     also be conducted using knives, clubs and guns.

     However -- and this is an important however -- if a militant is going to
     conduct such an attack against some of the targets al-Wuhayshi suggests,
     such as an airports, a train, or a specific leader or media personality,
     complexity creeps into the picture, and the attack planning cycle must
     be followed. The prospective attacker must observe and quantify the
     target, construct a plan to attack it and then execute that plan. It is
     the demands of conducting this process that will cause even an attacker
     previously unknown to the authorities to place himself in a position
     where he is vulnerable to being identified. If the attacker does this
     while there are people watching for him, he will likely be seen. If he
     does this while there are no watchers, there is little chance that he
     will become a "who" until after the attack has been completed. 

      
      
      
     Scott Stewart
     STRATFOR
     Office: 814 967 4046
     Cell: 814 573 8297
     scott.stewart@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com
      
</description>
    <date>2009-11-03 22:46:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1059823_re-counterterrorism-shifting-from-the-who-to-the-how-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1060101</id>
    <title>Re: Assange is off the hook...
</title>
    <description>   If it really matters I can look in to it, but from what I am hearing that
   is not the case. 
   That's not to say that my friend is foolproof either. She knows nothing of
   law or politics, she just knows the girl in question and follows the
   news. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 12:57:59 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   It is about rape. They asked him to use a condom, but he apparently likes
   unprotected sex.

   Sweden has very low threshold for what constitutes rape by the way,
   according to a lawyer friend.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Chris Farnham" &lt;chris.farnham@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 10:42:16 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   Is it possible to revoke some one's citizenship on the grounds of them
   being a total dickhead? 
   I don't care about the other leaks but the ones he has made that
   potentially damage Australian interests upset me. 
   If I thought I could switch this dickhead off without getting done I don't
   think I'd have too much of a problem.
   BTW, close family friend in Sweden who knows the girl that is pressing
   charges tells me that there is absolutely nothing behind it other than
   prosecutors that are looking to make a name for themselves. My friend
   speaks rather disparagingly about the girl who is claiming molestation. I
   also think the whole rape thing is incorrect for if I remember correctly
   rape was never the charge. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 12:23:03 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   What a douche.

   And I just want to be clear here... I have no problem with the leaks. I
   think they're great. And I think it may be good on some level to have
   stuff like this come out once in a while. What I can't stand is A) his ego
   trip and B) his clear anti-Americanism. Take the time to read the intro to
   Cablegate when you get the chance. This guy hates America more than OBL.

   What I love, however, is how nobody in the U.S. is mad about the cables.
   Hell, I have a better opinion of State Department diplomats now than I did
   before the cables. They actually said a few smart things here and there. I
   actually gave them a tip of my hat.

   I want to see him try to take on the Russians. He'd be going bald in an
   Iceland hospital within days.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 10:11:39 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   should we change our Stratfor motto now?
   Predictive, insightful intelligence...in a post-Cablegate world.
   On Dec 5, 2010, at 10:05 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

     This guy needs to take pills for his ego:

      He suggested, not for the first time, that he believes his document
      service has had a profound effect on world history: a**I believe
      geopolitics will be separated into pre- and post-Cablegate phases.a**

     Also, I have a question about this part (this is Assange's lawyer saying
     how Wikileaks would release full versions of all files -- including
     names of spies, etc. -- if harmed):

      WikiLeaks, Mr. Stephens said, has a**been subject to cyberattacks and
      censorship around the world and they need to protect themselves ... This
      is what they believe to be a thermonuclear device in the information
      age.a**

     Let's say the following scenario happens. Assange is arrested and
     extradicted to Sweden to face rape charges. Wikileaks releases the
     password to the insurance files. Would he not then be directly
     endangering U.S. and other country intelligence professionals? Would it
     not then be possible to prosecute him for espionage? 

     -- 
     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
     Marko Papic
     Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
     STRATFOR
     700 Lavaca Street - 900
     Austin, Texas
     78701 USA
     P: + 1-512-744-4094
     marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-06 06:01:04</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1060101_re-assange-is-off-the-hook-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1061018</id>
    <title>RE: Random Business Idea - Network Security
</title>
    <description>   Well governments are another matter I think. There is almost no possible
   way, with probably a couple tiny exceptions, to enfranchise your entire
   bureaucracy. So instead billions will be spent on wildly complex
   mechanisms to not only control the information you don't have access to,
   but to control the information you do have access to. Which basically
   amounts to controlling you.

    

   From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, December 09, 2010 00:38
   To: Kevin Stech
   Subject: Re: Random Business Idea - Network Security

    

   Or as Assange says in that interview: "treat your employees well".

   Great point. Problem is, that doesn't sell. ;)

   Imagine telling that to our leadership... lol

   On 12/9/10 12:34 AM, Kevin Stech wrote:

   You're right that it's really not a technological issue. There's a great
   technology for keeping your private data private already. It's called
   mandatory access control and it's been around for decades. The issue is
   more subtle since you're dealing with people leaking stuff they've been
   cleared to see. And now you're in the realm of grey matter.

    

   And it seems to me that here, as in many other things, an ounce of
   prevention is worth a pound of cure. I think that prevention can be boiled
   down to having a cohesive team with members that feel enfranchised. You
   don't leak your classified material, you leak their classified material.
   So if you want to be shady and exploit other people, fine. Just make sure
   you are on the same page with your co-conspirators and everybody gets a
   cut.

    

   If your company sells baby cribs and your employees are church-going
   soccer moms, then you might want to tone down the Dr. Evil routine.

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Thursday, December 09, 2010 00:16
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: Random Business Idea - Network Security

    

   That is the one...

   Forbes mentions how companies are now focusing on "leak-proof" network
   security. Interesting. I think that we would have a possible in there
   since that is not just about IT. But I don't really know what I am talking
   about.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Kevin Stech" &lt;kevin.stech@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, December 9, 2010 12:11:02 AM
   Subject: RE: Random Business Idea - Network Security

   I believe this is the article Marko is talking about.

    

   WikiLeaks' next target is big business, Assange says

   Andy Greenberg, Forbes.com

   Date: Wed. Dec. 1 2010 7:39 PM ET

   http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/World/20101201/forbes-assange-interview-101201/

    

   In a rare interview, Assange tells Forbes that the release of Pentagon and
   State Department documents are just the beginning. His next target: big
   business.

    

   Early next year, Julian Assange says, a major American bank will suddenly
   find itself turned inside out. Tens of thousands of its internal documents
   will be exposed on Wikileaks.org with no polite requests for executives'
   response or other forewarnings. The data dump will lay bare the finance
   firm's secrets on the Web for every customer, every competitor, every
   regulator to examine and pass judgment on.

    

   When? Which bank? What documents? Cagey as always, Assange won't say, so
   his claim is impossible to verify. But he has always followed through on
   his threats. Sitting for a rare interview in a London garden flat on a
   rainy November day, he compares what he is ready to unleash to the damning
   e-mails that poured out of the Enron trial: a comprehensive vivisection of
   corporate bad behavior. "You could call it the ecosystem of corruption,"
   he says, refusing to characterize the coming release in more detail. "But
   it's also all the regular decision making that turns a blind eye to and
   supports unethical practices: the oversight that's not done, the
   priorities of executives, how they think they're fulfilling their own
   self-interest."

    

   This is Assange: a moral ideologue, a champion of openness, a control
   freak. He pauses to think-a process that occasionally puts our
   conversation on hold for awkwardly long interludes. The slim 39-year-old
   WikiLeaks founder wears a navy suit over his 6-foot-2 frame, and his once
   shaggy white hair, recently dyed brown, has been cropped to a sandy
   patchwork of blonde and tan. He says he colors it when he's "being
   tracked."

    

   "These big-package releases. There should be a cute name for them," he
   says, then pauses again.

    

   "Megaleaks?" I suggest, trying to move things along.

    

   "Yes, that's good-megaleaks." His voice is a hoarse, Aussie-tinged
   baritone. As a teenage hacker in Melbourne its pitch helped him
   impersonate IT staff to trick companies' employees into revealing their
   passwords over the phone, and today it's deeper still after a recent bout
   of flu. "These megaleaks . . . they're an important phenomenon. And
   they're only going to increase."

    

   He'll see to that. By the time you're reading this another giant dump of
   classified U.S. documents may well be public. Assange refused to discuss
   the leak at the time FORBES went to press, but he claims it is part of a
   series that will have the greatest impact of any WikiLeaks release yet.
   Assange calls the shots: choosing the media outlets that splash his
   exposes, holding them to a strict embargo, running the leaks
   simultaneously on his site. Past megaleaks from his information insurgency
   over the last year have included 76,000 secret Afghan war documents and
   another trove of 392,000 files from the Iraq war. Those data explosions,
   the largest classified military security breaches in history, have roused
   antiwar activists and enraged the Pentagon.

    

   Admire Assange or revile him, he is the prophet of a coming age of
   involuntary transparency. Having exposed military misconduct on a grand
   scale, he is now gunning for corporate America. Does Assange have
   unpublished, damaging documents on pharmaceutical companies? Yes, he says.
   Finance? Yes, many more than the single bank scandal we've been
   discussing. Energy? Plenty, on everything from BP to an Albanian oil firm
   that he says attempted to sabotage its competitors' wells. Like
   informational IEDs, these damaging revelations can be detonated at will.

    

   Long gone are the days when Daniel Ellsberg had to photocopy thousands of
   Vietnam War documents to leak the Pentagon Papers. Modern whistleblowers,
   or employees with a grudge, can zip up their troves of incriminating
   documents on a laptop, USB stick or portable hard drive, spirit them out
   through personal e-mail accounts or online drop sites-or simply submit
   them directly to WikiLeaks.

    

   What do large companies think of the threat? If they're terrified, they're
   not saying. None would talk to us. Nor would the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
   WikiLeaks "is high profile, legally insulated and transnational," says
   former Commerce Department official James Lewis, who follows cybersecurity
   for the Center for Strategic &amp; International Studies. "That adds up to a
   reputational risk that companies didn't have to think about a year ago."

    

   Already U.S. laws wrapped into financial reform this year expand
   whistleblower incentives to offer six- and seven-digit rewards to staffers
   in any industry who report malfeasance. WikiLeaks adds another, new form
   of corporate data breach: It offers the conscience-stricken and vindictive
   alike a chance to publish documents largely unfiltered, without censors or
   personal repercussions, thanks to privacy and encryption technologies that
   make anonymity easier than ever before. WikiLeaks' technical and
   ideological example has inspired copycats from Africa to China and rallied
   transparency advocates to push for a new, legal promised land in the
   unlikely haven of Iceland. It's also fueling a race in the cybersecurity
   industry and in Washington to find technology that can plug information
   leaks once for all.

    

   Today Assange looks tired, his eyes narrowed and the skin beneath them
   puffy, as if he's unused to even England's gloomy daylight. He has no
   permanent home. "We're like a traveling production company; everyone moves
   somewhere, and we put on a production," he sighs. "We haven't had any rest
   since April." In Sweden, where many of the group's servers are based, a
   warrant has now been issued for his arrest on rape charges. He's denied
   the accusations, arguing they amount to smear tactics. He's also afraid to
   set foot in several other countries, including the U.S., fearing that
   officials will find reasons to detain him. No question that WikiLeaks
   would be in trouble if he were jailed: A spokeswoman says it has a
   "contingency plan," but without Assange there is no public face.
   Meanwhile, his resources have been drained by defections from his
   organization; some old friends and associates have taken issue with his
   autocratic style.

    

   None of which has stopped him from picking new fights. The promised
   release of bank documents would be the largest assault by WikiLeaks on the
   corporate sector, and Assange says the business community should expect
   plenty of sequels. In early October the site shut down its
   document-submission system; Assange says it was receiving more information
   than it could find resources to publish, thousands of additions a day at
   some points. The total is more gigabytes of data than he can count. "Our
   pipeline of leaks has been increasing exponentially as our profile rises,"
   he says, drawing a curve upward in the air with one hand.

    

   If even a fraction of his claims are borne out, he's already sitting on a
   crypt of data any three-letter spy agency would kill for. The world's most
   vocal transparency advocate is now one of the world's biggest keepers of
   secrets. And about half of those revelations, says Assange, relate to the
   private sector.

    

   Over the last four years he has been so busy embarrassing various
   governments, from Washington to the corrupt Kenyan regime of Daniel arap
   Moi, that many forget the corporate scandals already on WikiLeaks' trophy
   wall. In January 2008 the site posted documents alleging that the Swiss
   bank Julius Baer hid clients' profits from even the Swiss government,
   concealing them in what seemed to be shell companies in the Cayman
   Islands. The bank filed a lawsuit against WikiLeaks for publishing data
   stolen from its clients. Baer later dropped the suit-but managed to stir
   up embarrassing publicity for itself. The next year WikiLeaks published
   documents from a pharma trade group implying that its lobbyists were
   receiving confidential documents from and exerting influence over a World
   Health Organization project to fund drug research in the developing world.
   The resulting attention helped crater the WHO project.

    

   In September 2009 commodities giant Trafigura filed an injunction that
   prevented British media from mentioning a damaging internal report. The
   memo showed the company had dumped tons of toxic waste in the Ivory Coast,
   chemicals that allegedly sickened 100,000 locals. But it couldn't stop
   WikiLeaks from publishing the information. Trafigura eventually paid more
   than $200 million in settlements.

    

   How can an American corporation respond to a Wiki attack? Lawsuits won't
   work: WikiLeaks is legally shielded in the U.S. by its role as a mere
   conduit for documents. Even if a company somehow won a judgment against
   WikiLeaks, that wouldn't shut it down. Assange spreads the site's assets
   over many countries. "There's no single target to drop a bomb on," says
   Eric Goldman, a law professor at Santa Clara University.

    

   The best protection? With a dash of irony Icelandic WikiLeaks staffer
   Kristinn Hrafnsson suggests that companies change their ways to avoid
   targeting. "They should resist the temptation to enter into corruption,"
   he says. Don Tapscott, coauthor of The Naked Corporation (Free Press,
   2003), agrees. His simplistic conclusion: "Open your own kimono. You're
   going to be naked. So you have to dig deep, look at your whole operation,
   make sure that integrity is part of your bones."

    

   Most corporations, instead, are turning to cybersecurity to shield their
   private parts. Despite dozens of calls to companies in tech, energy and
   finance, none wanted to talk about antileaking strategies. But a Forrester
   Research study found that about a quarter of companies in the U.S., the
   U.K., France, Germany and Canada were implementing leak-focused security
   software in 2010, and another third are considering that option. A study
   last year by the Ponemon Institute, a privacy-research consultancy in
   Traverse City, Mich., found that 60% of employees admit to taking
   sensitive data before they leave a company.

    

   *****

    

   Some of the more intriguing antileak work is being done by Uncle Sam. In
   an unmarked government building on the edge of a residential Arlington,
   Va. neighborhood, a cybersecurity researcher named Peiter Zatko shows just
   how easily leaks can occur. He lays out a blow-by-blow history of one
   insider data theft: The suspect searched broadly over the network to find
   anything related to critical infrastructure, then returned to manually
   probe a few interesting files. "Then he walked away with enough
   information to shut down big chunks of the telephone systems in the United
   States," Zatko says matter-of-factly.

    

   Who was that shadowy data smuggler? "That was me," says the 39-year-old
   researcher, giggling bashfully.

    

   Zatko is not your typical Department of Defense employee. Even in his new
   Beltway digs, he prefers to be called "Mudge," the hacker handle he used
   during decades of exploring the dark corners of the Internet. Frank Heidt,
   a former security staffer at MCI and several military contractors, says
   that when he first read Zatko's exploit research in mid-1990s hacker
   zines, he thought that Mudge must be the pseudonym of a group. "He was so
   prolific that I thought he couldn't be one person," Heidt says. In 1998,
   as part of the L0pht hacker think tank, Zatko testified in a congressional
   hearing that he and his friends could shut down the Internet in 30
   minutes.

    

   Since March Zatko has also been a lead cybersecurity researcher at the
   Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the mad-scientist wing of the
   Pentagon devoted to projects that occasionally result in breakthroughs
   like the Internet and GPS. Zatko's new pet project may be equally
   ambitious: He aims to rid the world of digital leaks.

    

   The telephone system theft case that Zatko dissected in a Darpa conference
   room was a test, demonstrating that anyone with access to a network could
   steal data without detection, despite the system's expensive security
   software. Now his challenge is to fix the problem. Since August he has led
   a project known as the Cyber Insider Threat, or Cinder. Like most Darpa
   initiatives it's an X-Prize-style open invitation for ideas; recipients
   typically get tens of millions of dollars in government funding.
   Thirty-five entrants, mostly tiny companies, have already publicly signed
   up, many more in secret. "We're looking to everyone from academia to
   startups to large government contractors," says Zatko. "We're not looking
   for evolutionary improvement. We want to pull the rug out from the problem
   altogether."

    

   It's a well-worn carpet. Since late 2007 every major security software
   vendor, from McAfee to Symantec to Trend Micro, has spent hundreds of
   millions of dollars to acquire companies in the so-called Data-Leak
   Prevention (DLP) industry-software designed to locate and tag sensitive
   information, and then guard against its escape at the edges of a firm's
   network.

    

   The problem: DLP doesn't work. Data is simply created too quickly, and
   moved around too often, for a mere filter to catch it, says Richard
   Stiennon, an analyst for security consultancy IT-Harvest, in Birmingham,
   Mich. "For DLP to function, all the stars have to align," he says. "This
   is a huge problem that can't be stopped with a single layer of
   infrastructure."

    

   More fashionable now is network forensics: the process of constantly
   collecting every fingerprint on a company's servers to trace an intruder
   or leaker after the fact-and, perhaps, deter the next one. That's a bit
   like fighting the next war according to the last one. Still, revenue at
   NetWitness, a prominent Herndon, Va. startup in that budding field, has
   leaped from $250,000 to $40 million since 2006. While the software
   generally gathers data and makes it easily available to queries, it
   doesn't pinpoint culprits. "There's nothing in current technology that can
   do this in an automated fashion," says Shawn Carpenter, principal
   forensics analyst at NetWitness. "You need a Columbo."

    

   Or, better yet, a robo-Columbo. Darpa's Zatko has been working on a system
   of automatically identifying what he calls "malicious missions": insider
   activity aimed at stealing data from inside a company's firewall, whether
   it's a Dell PC remotely hijacked by a Chinese cyberspy or Bradley
   Mannings, the U.S. soldier accused of leaking classified documents about
   combat in Afghanistan to WikiLeaks. Zatko's system would monitor networks
   in real-time for just the sort of data-stealing behavior he would perform
   himself: steps like scouring large areas of the network for a certain
   file, dumping piles of data to external storage hardware or sending
   encrypted files out over the Internet. No single episode would signal a
   leak; instead, the software would link acts in a probabilistic chain,
   triggering an alert only if a string of events points to purposeful data
   theft.

    

   Some of that leaky behavior isn't what a casual observer might expect.
   Consider the cyber footprints left by Robert Hanssen, a former FBI agent
   serving a life sentence in a Colorado supermax prison for selling
   intelligence to the Soviets over two decades. Every few days Hanssen would
   stop his normal activities and make a single query to a server across the
   network, a pattern he repeated for years. That server, Zatko says, held
   the counterintelligence database. Hanssen was searching for himself, a
   routine check to see if he'd finally been found out.

    

   "You put all these things together into the different components of the
   mission," says Zatko. "I'm looking for these new rhythms, new tells, new
   interrelations and requirements."

    

   Cinder wasn't created to combat WikiLeaks-in fact, it predates WikiLeaks'
   biggest military scandals. But Zatko has nonetheless found himself
   squarely in opposition to Assange's mission-a strange face-off, given that
   the two men once traveled in the same hacker circles, during the years
   when Assange went by the hacker handle Mendax (a Latin reference to the
   "splendidly deceptive" in the poet Horace's Odes) and reveled in accessing
   corporate and government systems without authorization. Neither will
   reveal much about their past encounters, but Assange says that they "were
   in the same milieu." Asked about Assange, Zatko says only, "I have very
   pleasant memories of those old days."

    

   WikiLeaks' founder, in fact, seems to have trouble accepting that Mudge is
   working for the other side. "He's a clever guy, and he's also highly
   ethical," says Assange. "I suspect he would have concerns about creating a
   system to conceal genuine abuses." He dismisses Cinder as just another
   system of digital censorship. And those systems, he says, will always
   fail, just as China's Great Firewall can't stop well-informed and
   determined dissident Internet users. "Censorship might work for the
   average person but not for highly motivated people," Assange says. "And
   our people are highly motivated."

    

   *****

    

   Shutting down WikiLeaks wouldn't stop the growing movement of transparency
   agitators. They now have a nation-size ally: Iceland. Since WikiLeaks
   scored a major scoop unearthing the corrupt loans that helped destroy that
   country's largest bank, the volcanic island is fast on its way to becoming
   the conduit for a global flood of leaks.

    

   It began when Kaupthing Bank collapsed in October 2008-a calamitous chain
   reaction that has strapped Iceland with $128 billion in debts, around
   $400,000 per capita. Ten months later Bogi Agustsson, a Walter
   Cronkite-ish anchor for Icelandic national broadcaster RUV, appeared on
   the evening news and explained that a legal injunction had prevented the
   station from airing a prepared expose on Kaupthing. Viewers who wanted to
   see the material, he suggested, should visit a site called Wikileaks.org.

    

   Those who took Agustsson's advice found a summary of Kaupthing's loan book
   posted on the site, detailing more than $6 billion funneled from
   Kaupthing's coffers to its own proprietors and companies they owned, often
   with little or no collateral; $900 million went to Olafur Olafsson, a
   major investor in Kaupthing who, on his birthday, flew in Elton John from
   England, along with a grand piano, for a one-hour concert. "The banks had
   been eaten from the inside out," says Kristinn Hrafnsson, a former
   investigative reporter in Reykjavik who now works with WikiLeaks.

    

   A government investigation is still going on; no criminal charges have
   been filed. But WikiLeaks became a household name in Iceland. In December
   2009 Assange and Daniel Domscheit-Berg, a German who then worked with
   WikiLeaks, were invited to keynote a free-speech conference in Reykjavik.
   Their talk echoed an idea from American cyberlibertarian John Perry
   Barlow, calling for a "Switzerland of bits." Iceland, with its independent
   spirit and recent taste of explosive whistle-blowing, they suggested,
   could become the digital doppelga:nger of a tax haven: a safe harbor for
   transparency, where it's open season on government and business
   secrets-and leakers are protected by law.

    

   The idea might have gone nowhere if not for Birgitta Jonsdottir. Assange's
   message captivated the 43-year-old poet and self-styled
   "realist-anarchist." She wasn't just another idealistic protester with a
   goth wardrobe and hipster haircut. In the chaotic political environment
   that followed the national financial crisis, Jonsdottir had been elected
   to Iceland's parliament, the Althingi, in April 2009.

    

   Working with the country's transparency activists, she pulled together the
   Icelandic Modern Media Initiative, or Immi. The initiative would bring to
   Iceland all the source-protection, freedom of information and transparency
   laws from around the world and even set up a Nobel-style international
   award for work in the field of free expression. Jonsdottir pushed through
   a unanimous resolution to create a series of bills to implement Immi. They
   would also make Iceland the most friendly legal base for whistleblowers on
   Earth.

    

   Velkomin, as Icelanders would say, to Leakistan.

    

   "The more that companies resist, the more information will get out about
   them," says Jonsdottir when we meet in Reykjavik's Hressingarskalinn cafe,
   around the corner from the parliament building. "They can't hide anymore.
   The war is over. They lost." In Jonsdottir's vision Iceland will attract
   both mainstream media and WikiLeaks-like organizations to move their data
   to Iceland, enjoying legal protection, just as another firm might
   incorporate in a tax-sheltering island in the Caribbean.

    

   She may be getting a bit ahead of herself. Immi has yet to become law,
   though it has backing from powerful figures, including both Iceland's
   minister of justice and the head of its progressive party. Even if it
   does, Immi likely wouldn't offer much legal protection to organizations
   whose assets and staff aren't physically in the country; they could still
   be sued anywhere else in the world, given that their digital and print
   publications could appear globally. Immi could also face resistance from
   the U.S. and the EU-particularly when it comes to military matters. As
   Marc Thiessen, a conservative pundit, wrote on the blog of the American
   Enterprise Institute in August, "Immi calls into question Iceland's
   seriousness as a NATO ally, and Iceland needs to realize there will be
   consequences for its actions." There could be a backlash for exposing
   corporate secrets, too. Alastair Mullis, a professor of law at East Anglia
   University in Britain, says, "It's possible that Iceland will become the
   defamation capital of the world."

    

   Jonsdottir and fellow Immi creator Smari McCarthy are pushing ahead
   anyway. Immi, they say, doesn't fashion new laws; it cherry-picks existing
   statutes from around the world (source shields from Sweden, libel
   protection from New York State, protected communications with journalists
   from Belgium, among them). "We're basing our legislation on laws that have
   already withstood attacks," says Jonsdottir. Defamation and other concerns
   like child pornography and copyright violations, she argues, would still
   be illegal in Iceland and wouldn't be sheltered.

    

   Nor is the idea to protect WikiLeaks itself, Jonsdottir points out. The
   site doesn't need help: Its data and submissions process are carefully
   encrypted, and its infrastructure is spread over enough
   countries-including some servers in a bombproof, underground bunker in
   Sweden-that taking it offline is already nearly impossible.

   Instead Immi would foster a new wave of media organizations and
   whistleblower outlets that don't rely on WikiLeaks' technical savvy or
   resources. Already a handful of smaller, leak-focused conduits-regional
   sites like Africa-focused SaharaReporters or Thaileaks.info-have published
   damning data. Immi's McCarthy says he's been approached by media
   organizations from Rwanda to Chechnya. German WikiLeaks staffer Daniel
   Domscheit-Berg, disgruntled with Assange's laser focus on infrequent
   megaleaks, has left the organization along with several others to create
   his own spinoff. "In the end there must be a thousand WikiLeaks," he told
   Der Spiegel in September.

    

   Iceland certainly has the infrastructure for a lot of informational
   mischief. Half an hour outside Reykjavik, on a landscape that resembles
   Mars covered in snow, the Thor Data Center is preparing for an influx of
   bytes. By 2011 it hopes to have thousands of servers in its
   aluminum-plant-turned-server-farm, powered by ultracheap geothermal energy
   and cooled by free arctic air. Iceland's biggest Web host, ironically
   named 1984 Web Hosting, is excited about the boost Immi could give its
   business. "I created this company to prevent thought control," says Mordur
   Ingolfsson, its chief executive. "In my humble opinion, Immi is the most
   important thing to happen to this godforsaken island since the Sagas were
   written." (That's 600-plus years.)

    

   Jonsdottir agrees: "WikiLeaks was an important icebreaker. It was the tip.
   Immi is the rest of the wedge, and it will open up everything." (She is
   less thrilled to learn that Assange speaks of Immi as his personal
   creation.)I ask Assange how he expects companies to cope with a world
   where hundreds of WikiLeak-alikes may soon exist. His three-part
   prescription is earnest-if a bit patronizing: "Do things to encourage
   leaks from dishonest competitors. Be as open and honest as possible. Treat
   your employees well."

   He also wants to clear up a misunderstanding. Despite his revolutionary
   reputation, he's not antibusiness. He bristles at the media's focus on his
   teenage years as a computer hacker who broke into dozens of systems, from
   the Department of Defense to Nortel, and was eventually convicted on 25
   charges of computer fraud and fined thousands of dollars.

    

   Instead, he prefers to think of himself as an entrepreneur. He tells the
   story of a free-speech-focused Internet service provider he cofounded in
   1993, known as Suburbia. It was, to hear him tell it, the blueprint for
   WikiLeaks-in one instance, when the Church of Scientology demanded to know
   who had posted antichurch information on one site, he refused to help.
   ("He has titanium balls," says David Gerard, that site's creator.) "I saw
   it early on, without realizing it: potentiating people to reveal their
   information, creating a conduit," Assange says. "Without having any other
   robust publisher in the market, people came to us."

    

   Leaks merely lubricate the free market, he says, settling into the couch
   and clearly enjoying giving me a lecture on economics. (Later, as a
   45-minute interview pushes into two hours, he ignores his handler, who
   keeps urging him to leave for his next appointment.) He cites the example
   of the Chinese Sanlu Group, whose milk powder contained toxic melamine in
   2008. While poisoning its customers, Sanlu also gained an advantage over
   competitors and might have forced more of them to taint their products,
   too, or go bankrupt-if Sanlu hadn't been exposed in the Chinese press. "In
   the struggle between open and honest companies and dishonest and closed
   companies, we're creating a tremendous reputational tax on the unethical
   companies," he says.

    

   Of course, Assange's tax isn't as equitable as it sounds. He alone decides
   where to apply the penalty, choosing the targets and when to expose them
   with a touch of theatrical grandstanding-and with zero accountability. For
   better-and worse-WikiLeaks has become the Julian Assange Show. As a
   photographer begins shooting, Assange wonders aloud if the coat he's
   wearing might have been produced by a labor-exploiting company. A few
   minutes later he jokes about his "messiah complex."

    

   Like any true believer, Assange sees his work in simple terms. Markets, he
   reminds me, can't exist without information. Business will come to
   appreciate what he offers. And if that requires a few painful scandals in
   the process?

    

   Assange doesn't miss a beat. "Pain for the guilty.

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Wednesday, December 08, 2010 19:39
   To: analysts
   Subject: Random Business Idea - Network Security

    

   I'm sure this has been thought of before at STRATFOR so excuse the
   redundancy. I was reading a solid Forbes article on Assange and it said
   that a large number of deep pocket corporations were looking into
   leak-focused network security after these Wikileak episodes.

   I was wondering if it was possible for us to get some of that
   "leak-focused" gravy train. This is an obvious fear sale, so that's a good
   thing. And we have something to offer that the IT security companies
   don't, mainly our focus on counter-intelligence and surveillance that Fred
   and Stick know better than anyone on the planet.

   We do a lot of good work with all the personal/executive security analysis
   as well. Could we develop some ideas and procedures on the idea of
   "leak-focused" network security that focuses on preventing one's own
   employees from leaking sensitive information.

   The point here is that I am sure there are certain procedures and
   precautions that companies should employ that go beyond installing network
   security network to deal with potential leaks. In fact, Im not so sure
   this is an IT problem that requires an IT solution.

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

    

   --

   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

   Marko Papic

   Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

   STRATFOR

   700 Lavaca Street - 900

   Austin, Texas

   78701 USA

   P: + 1-512-744-4094

   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-09 07:44:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1061018_re-random-business-idea-network-security-.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1061805</id>
    <title>RE: PROPOSAL- Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks Survival
</title>
    <description>   Let's do it.

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Sean Noonan
   Sent: Tuesday, December 07, 2010 8:49 AM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: PROPOSAL- Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks Survival

    

   Title: Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks Survival

   Type: 3- When I woke up at 5, there was no one saying anything on this.  I
   haven't checked but I'm guessing we are still way ahead of in providing
   analysis of what Assange's arrest will do to him/the organization

   Thesis: Assange was arrested in Britain December 7.  WikiLeaks is a new
   organization with one leader that has not institutionalized.  Assange's
   arest will test its ability to maintain itself as an institution--but that
   won't stop the current set of documents. 

   600 words

   Current Discussion:

    

   London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and public
   spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7.  He is due to appear in a
   court in Westminster soon to face charges of rape, accused by two woman in
   Sweden.  Charges of sexual assault rarely are passed through Interpol red
   notices, like this case, so this is no doubt about trying to disrupt
   WikiLeaks release of government documents.  While it's possible that
   Assange's arrest could disrupt the long-term viability of WikiLeaks, it
   will not stop the release of cables in the short-term and governments will
   now be concerned about what the organization may release in revenge.

    

   Leadership is extremely important in non-governmental organizations that
   have not institutionalized.  From terrorist grous  to charities [LINK:
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090923_death_top_indonesian_militant],
   these organizations often ebb and flow along with their founders. 
   WikiLeaks is a new organization that has a created a novel method for an
   old practice- leaking confidential government information in an attempt to
   influence politics.  Leaking will not go away with Assange's arrest, but
   WikiLeaks might.

    

   WikiLeaks created itself with Assange as the only public face-- he leads
   supports, drives donations, and faces criticism.  This has made many in
   the organization unhappy, and some have left it after disagreeing with
   him.  If Assange were to face charges in Sweden for sexual assault or new
   charges in the UK or US and was found guilty, WikiLeaks would still need
   someone to operate it.  Assange may have someone waiting in the wings, but
   that is not evident.

    

   WikiLeaks has also suffered logistically and as a brand.  As national
   governments put pressure on its infrastructure, its websites have been
   shut and most importantly its main source of funding- PayPal- has closed
   WikiLeaks account.  With such pressure and government monitoring, future
   leakers may be too afraid of getting intercepted and go elsewhere. 
   Moreover, this new set of documents have not worked out like Assange
   expected- the public is not angry at the State Department, but many are
   angry at Assange and his organization.

    

   Assange's arrest won't stop the continued leaks of this large batch of US
   State Department cables.  It also won't shut down WikiLeaks, which still
   maintains its website and the ability to collect information from
   leakers.  So in the short-term, WikiLeaks will maintain.  The question
   remains if it has created a truly sustainable institutions-- one where
   leaders are replacable, members can adapt to changing circumstance, and
   representatives can aid and inspire new leakers.

    

   If Asange is extradited to Sweden and tried of one count of unlawful
   coercion, two counts of sexual molestation and one count of rape, will he
   be able to maintain WikiLeaks image?  That is hard to say, but growing
   public criticism of him indicates his inability to grow WikiLeaks support
   base.  Western govrenments also fear whatever is contained in his ___
   file, for which he threatens to release an encryption key if something
   happens to him.  WikiLeaks has already released its most damaging
   documents-- its attempt to get public attention-- and they haven't
   amounted to much.  This new file likely contains no more damaging
   information, but instead is full of names.  The names of sources who will
   be at risk and those of diplomats, military or intelligence officers who
   could lose their jobs.

    

   WikiLeaks is now facing a conundrum that all new organizations do--the
   ability to maintain and transition leadership through adverse
   circumstances.  Maybe Assange will be released quickly-- STRATFOR cannot
   speak to the veracity of the charges against him-- but if he isn't,
   WikiLeaks will struggle to survive.

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 14:54:51</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1061805_re-proposal-assange-arrest-and-wikileaks-survival-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1062001</id>
    <title>PROPOSAL- Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks Survival
</title>
    <description>   Title: Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks Survival

   Type: 3- When I woke up at 5, there was no one saying anything on this.  I
   haven't checked but I'm guessing we are still way ahead of in providing
   analysis of what Assange's arrest will do to him/the organization

   Thesis: Assange was arrested in Britain December 7.  WikiLeaks is a new
   organization with one leader that has not institutionalized.  Assange's
   arest will test its ability to maintain itself as an institution--but that
   won't stop the current set of documents. 

   600 words

   Current Discussion:

    

   London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and public
   spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7.  He is due to appear in a
   court in Westminster soon to face charges of rape, accused by two woman in
   Sweden.  Charges of sexual assault rarely are passed through Interpol red
   notices, like this case, so this is no doubt about trying to disrupt
   WikiLeaks release of government documents.  While it's possible that
   Assange's arrest could disrupt the long-term viability of WikiLeaks, it
   will not stop the release of cables in the short-term and governments will
   now be concerned about what the organization may release in revenge.

    

   Leadership is extremely important in non-governmental organizations that
   have not institutionalized.  From terrorist grous  to charities [LINK:
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090923_death_top_indonesian_militant],
   these organizations often ebb and flow along with their founders. 
   WikiLeaks is a new organization that has a created a novel method for an
   old practice- leaking confidential government information in an attempt to
   influence politics.  Leaking will not go away with Assange's arrest, but
   WikiLeaks might.

    

   WikiLeaks created itself with Assange as the only public face-- he leads
   supports, drives donations, and faces criticism.  This has made many in
   the organization unhappy, and some have left it after disagreeing with
   him.  If Assange were to face charges in Sweden for sexual assault or new
   charges in the UK or US and was found guilty, WikiLeaks would still need
   someone to operate it.  Assange may have someone waiting in the wings, but
   that is not evident.

    

   WikiLeaks has also suffered logistically and as a brand.  As national
   governments put pressure on its infrastructure, its websites have been
   shut and most importantly its main source of funding- PayPal- has closed
   WikiLeaks account.  With such pressure and government monitoring, future
   leakers may be too afraid of getting intercepted and go elsewhere. 
   Moreover, this new set of documents have not worked out like Assange
   expected- the public is not angry at the State Department, but many are
   angry at Assange and his organization.

    

   Assange's arrest won't stop the continued leaks of this large batch of US
   State Department cables.  It also won't shut down WikiLeaks, which still
   maintains its website and the ability to collect information from
   leakers.  So in the short-term, WikiLeaks will maintain.  The question
   remains if it has created a truly sustainable institutions-- one where
   leaders are replacable, members can adapt to changing circumstance, and
   representatives can aid and inspire new leakers.

    

   If Asange is extradited to Sweden and tried of one count of unlawful
   coercion, two counts of sexual molestation and one count of rape, will he
   be able to maintain WikiLeaks image?  That is hard to say, but growing
   public criticism of him indicates his inability to grow WikiLeaks support
   base.  Western govrenments also fear whatever is contained in his ___
   file, for which he threatens to release an encryption key if something
   happens to him.  WikiLeaks has already released its most damaging
   documents-- its attempt to get public attention-- and they haven't
   amounted to much.  This new file likely contains no more damaging
   information, but instead is full of names.  The names of sources who will
   be at risk and those of diplomats, military or intelligence officers who
   could lose their jobs.

    

   WikiLeaks is now facing a conundrum that all new organizations do--the
   ability to maintain and transition leadership through adverse
   circumstances.  Maybe Assange will be released quickly-- STRATFOR cannot
   speak to the veracity of the charges against him-- but if he isn't,
   WikiLeaks will struggle to survive.

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 14:49:14</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1062001_proposal-assange-arrest-and-wikileaks-survival-.html</permalink>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1062505</id>
    <title>Re: WikiLeaks cables: Shell boasts it has infiltrated Nigerian
	government
</title>
    <description>I'm sure Shell Corporate Security is hating life right about now.  

I would not be surprised to see a few Nigerian govt officials to be
locked up or blown up as a result. 

Since Shell has a U.S. footprint, the FCPA DOJ investigations will be
following suit.

MNC worst nightmare....


Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;   WikiLeaks cables: Shell boasts it has infiltrated Nigerian government
&gt;
&gt; US embassy cables reveal top executive's claims that company 'knows
&gt; everything' about key decisions in oil-rich Niger Delta
&gt;
&gt; The oil &lt;http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/oil&gt; giant Shell claimed it
&gt; has inserted its staff into all key ministries of the Nigerian
&gt; government, giving it access to politicians' every move in the oil-rich
&gt; Niger Delta, according to a leaked US diplomatic cable.
&gt;
&gt; The company's top executive in Nigeria
&gt; &lt;http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/nigeria&gt; told US diplomats that Shell
&gt; had seconded employees to every relevant department and so knew
&gt; "everything that was being done in those ministries". She boasted that
&gt; the Nigerian government had "forgotten" about the extent of Shell's
&gt; infiltration and were unaware of how much the company knew about its
&gt; deliberations.
&gt;
&gt; The cache of secret dispatches from Washington's embassies in Africa
&gt; also revealed that the Anglo-Dutch oil firm swapped intelligence with
&gt; the US, in one case providing US diplomats with the names of Nigerian
&gt; politicians it suspected of supporting militant activity and requesting
&gt; information from the US on whether the militants had acquired
&gt; anti-aircraft missiles.
&gt;
&gt; Other cables rreveal:
&gt;
&gt; • US diplomats fear that Kenya could erupt in violence worse than that
&gt; experienced after the election in 2008 unless rampant government
&gt; corruption is tackled.
&gt;
&gt; • America asked Uganda to let it know if its army intended to commit war
&gt; crimes based on US intelligence – but did not try to prevent war crimes
&gt; taking place.
&gt;
&gt; • Washington's ambassador to the troubled African state of Eritrea
&gt; described its president, Isaias Afwerki, as a cruel "unhinged dictator"
&gt; who's regime was "one bullet away from implosion".
&gt;
&gt; The latest revelations came on a day that saw hackers sympathetic to
&gt; WikiLeaks target Mastercard and Visa over their decision to block
&gt; payments to the whistleblowers' website who's founder, Julian Assange,
&gt; spent a second night in prison after a judge refused him bail ahead of
&gt; an extradition hearing to face questioning over sexual assault charges
&gt; in Sweden.
&gt;
&gt; Campaigners tonight said the revelation about Shell in Nigeria
&gt; demonstrate the tangled links between the oil firm and politicians in
&gt; the country where, despite billions of dollars in oil revenue, 70% of
&gt; people live below the poverty line.
&gt;
&gt; Cables from Nigeria show how Ann Pickard
&gt; &lt;http://www.shell.com.au/home/content/aus/aboutshell/who_we_are/leadership&gt;,
&gt; then Shell's vice-president for sub-Saharan Africa, sought to share
&gt; intelligence with the US government on militant activity and business
&gt; competition in the contested Niger Delta — and how, with some
&gt; prescience, she seemed reluctant to open up because of a suspicion the
&gt; US government was "leaky".
&gt;
&gt; But that did not prevent Pickard disclosing the company's reach into
&gt; Nigerian government when she met US ambassador Robin Renee Sanders,
&gt; recorded in a confidential memo from the American embassy in Abuja on 20
&gt; October 2009.
&gt;
&gt; At the meeting Pickard related how the company had obtained a letter
&gt; showing that the Nigerian government had invited bids for oil
&gt; concessions from China. She said the Minister of State for Petroleum
&gt; Resources Odein Ajumogobia had denied the letter had been sent but Shell
&gt; knew similar correspondence had taken place with China and Russia
&gt; &lt;http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/russia&gt;.
&gt;
&gt; The ambassador reported: "She said the GON [government of Nigeria] had
&gt; forgotten that Shell had seconded people to all the relevant ministries
&gt; and that Shell consequently had access to everything that was being done
&gt; in those ministries."
&gt;
&gt; Nigeria is Africa's leading oil producer and the eighth biggest exporter
&gt; in the world, accounting for 8% of US oil imports. Although a recent UN
&gt; report largely exonerated the company, critics accuse Shell, the biggest
&gt; operator in the delta, and other companies, of causing widespread
&gt; pollution and environmental damage
&gt; &lt;http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/cif-green/2010/nov/09/niger-delta-shell-crisis&gt;
&gt; in the region. Militant groups engaged in hostage-taking and sabotage
&gt; have proliferated.
&gt;
&gt; The WikiLeaks disclosure was today seized on by campaigners as evidence
&gt; of Shell's vice-like grip on the country's oil wealth. "Shell and the
&gt; government of Nigeria are two sides of the same coin," said Celestine
&gt; AkpoBari, programme officer for Social Action Nigeria.
&gt;
&gt; "Shell is everywhere. They have an eye and an ear in every ministry of
&gt; Nigeria. They have people on the payroll in every community, which is
&gt; why they get away with everything. They are more powerful than the
&gt; Nigerian government."
&gt;
&gt; The criticism was echoed by Ben Amunwa of the London-based oil watchdog
&gt; Platform &lt;http://platformlondon.org&gt;. "Shell claims to have nothing to
&gt; do with Nigerian politics," he said. "In reality, Shell works deep
&gt; inside the system, and has long exploited political channels in Nigeria
&gt; to its own advantage."
&gt;
&gt; Nigeria tonight strenuously denied the claim. Levi Ajuonoma, a spokesman
&gt; for state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation
&gt; &lt;http://www.nnpcgroup.com&gt;, said: "Shell does not control the government
&gt; of Nigeria and has never controlled the government of Nigeria. This
&gt; cable is the mere interpretation of one individual. It is absolutely
&gt; untrue, an absolute falsehood and utterly misleading. It is an attempt
&gt; to demean the government and we will not stand for that. I don't think
&gt; anybody will lose sleep over it."
&gt;
&gt; Another cable released today, from the US consulate in Lagos and dated
&gt; 19 September 2008, claims that Pickard told US diplomats that two named
&gt; regional politicians were behind unrest in the Rivers state. She also
&gt; asked if the American diplomats had any intelligence on shipments of
&gt; surface to air missiles (SAMs) to militants in the Niger Delta.
&gt;
&gt; "She claimed Shell has 'intelligence' that one to three SAMs may have
&gt; been shipped to Nigerian militant groups, although she seemed somewhat
&gt; sceptical of that information and wondered if such sensitive systems
&gt; would last long in the harsh environment of the Niger Delta in the care
&gt; of groups not known for their preventive maintenance practices," the
&gt; cable said.
&gt;
&gt; Pickard also said Shell had learned from the British government details
&gt; of Russian energy company Gazprom's ambitions to enter the Nigerian
&gt; market. In June last year Gazprom signed a $2.5bn (£1.5bn) deal with the
&gt; state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation to build refineries,
&gt; pipelines and gas power stations.
&gt;
&gt; Shell put a request to the US consulate for potentially sensitive
&gt; intelligence about its possible rival, which she said had secured a
&gt; promise from the Nigerian government of access to 17 trillion cubic feet
&gt; of natural gas – roughly a tenth of Nigeria's entire reserves.
&gt;
&gt; "Pickard said that that amount of gas was only available if the GON were
&gt; to take concessions currently assigned to other oil companies and give
&gt; them to Gazprom. She assumed Shell would be the GON's prime target."
&gt; Pickard alleged that a conversation with a Nigerian government minister
&gt; had been secretly recorded by the Russians. Shortly after the meeting in
&gt; the minister's office she received a verbatim transcript of the meeting
&gt; "from Russia", according to the memo.
&gt;
&gt; The cable concludes with the observation that the oil executive had
&gt; tended to be guarded in discussion with US officials. "Pickard has
&gt; repeatedly told us she does not like to talk to USG [US government]
&gt; officials because the USG is 'leaky'." She may be concerned that...bad
&gt; news about Shell's Nigerian operations will leak out."
&gt;
&gt; Shell declined to comment on the allegations, saying: "You are seeking
&gt; our views on a leaked cable allegedly containing information about a
&gt; private conversation involving a Shell representative, but have declined
&gt; to share this cable or to permit us sufficient time to obtain
&gt; information from the person you say took part in the conversation on the
&gt; part of Shell. In view of this, we cannot comment on the alleged
&gt; contents of the cable, including the correctness or incorrectness of any
&gt; statements you say it contains."
&gt;
&gt;   
</description>
    <date>2010-12-08 22:58:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 23:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1062505_re-wikileaks-cables-shell-boasts-it-has-infiltrated-nigerian.html</permalink>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1063815</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] Anonymous and Occupy divergence...in the Iowa caucuses
</title>
    <description>   occupying the caucasus themselves would be impossible -- as Sean noted its
   direct participatory democracy...each congressional district is split into
   not-so-small number of precincts, withe separate meeting places for
   democrats and republicans

   so my home town -- population 26k -- had 12 caucasus locations

   the greater des moines are (cue the laughter) would have something like 25
   times that

   and there is one other nice thing about Iowa -- the roads leading out are
   in immaculate condition

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "CT AOR" &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "Peter Zeihan" &lt;peter.zeihan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, November 9, 2011 9:30:51 PM
   Subject: Anonymous and Occupy divergence...in the Iowa caucuses

   Ironically after all my Anonymous bashing, i want to point out a very
   minor development. Mainly because it's funny to me. 

   I mentioned the Occupy Des Moines protest last week sometime.  It is very
   small, and a lot like Austin's.  They have been planning for a few weeks
   to Occupy the Iowa caucuses.  For those of you that don't know about the
   practice of the most important local democratic process in the world, the
   Iowa Caucuses are the first round of true competition between presidential
   candidates.  Unlike voting in a primary, it's more like a town hall
   meeting with much debate and discussion--a very open democratic form.  A
   candidate doesn't have to win Iowa necessarily to get the presidential
   nomination, but it serves to weed most of the bad ones early on in the
   race  (Iowans are fallible, they have made mistakes too). It's the one
   time that Iowa has an influence on politics, and I often say it is Iowa's
   one good thing.  I think it's January 3. 

   Back to the protestors.  Their plan has been developing to "occupy"
   candidate's offices.  That really means protest in front of the offices,
   which if you think of all the little shitty strip malls you see around,
   one small section would be a campaign office.  They have no security, and
   allow a lot of access to candidates if they choose to campaign in Iowa.
   The Occupy Des Moines group are not at all planning to disrupt the
   Caucuses functioning.  Though I wouldn't be surprised if they protested
   outside caucus meeting places, or more likely, brought their signs and
   slogans in with them.  These people are experienced organizers (as it
   comes to des moines), and know that if they have a political impact, one
   of the best places to aim it is the Caucuses. 

   Now here comes "Anonymous."  Those of you that read the Wired background
   know that their real effect has been in popularizing "memes."  One of
   these was actually Occupy Wall Street- 
   http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/20/occupy-wall-street-anonymous-connection_n_1021665.html 
   The mob of computer users and protest movement have been running on
   parallel tracks for awhile, and have served to mutually reinforce each
   other.

   Whoever from Anonymous made this new video about the Caucuses has made an
   ass out of themselves.  The video recommends actually shutting down the
   Caucuses.  That is both tactically dumb for the Occupy movement, but also
   totally antithetical to its general ideology.  For example, a Caucus
   functions very similarly to the Occupy General Assembly meetings--direct
   participatory democracy. 

   The Des Moines organizers have already spoken up- saying they have nothing
   to do with this "Anonymous" bullshit.  I'm happy to see I left them with
   some sense of realism.  This little event is not going to matter very
   much, but it shows how uncoordinated Anonymous is. 

   See the article below, the video is at the link. 

   Video calls for shutting down Iowa caucuses; the group Anonymous claims
   responsibility
   Jason Clayworth
   4:55 PM, Nov 6, 2011
   http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/11/06/video-calls-for-shutting-down-iowa-caucuses-the-group-anonymous-claims-responsibility/

   An anarchist-style movement that has caught the attention of the FBI and
   taken credit for hacking into military and corporate websites has now
   claimed responsibility for creating a video that urges its supporters to
   shut down the Iowa caucuses.

   Local authorities say they are aware of the video, are preparing for
   possible action by the group and are in contact with the presidential
   campaigns about the issue.

   A computer-generated voice in the online video, which had received more
   than 1,600 views by Sunday evening, says, a**Both parties are desecrating
   the American democracy and committing crimes against humanity on behalf of
   the American people.a**

   It continues: a**The primaries and caucuses put on by these parties are
   part of an elaborate scam that deceives the public into voting for
   candidates that serve the private interests of the mega corporations.
   These parties have deliberately driven tens of millions of people into
   poverty.a**

   It later says: a**We are calling upon you to occupy the campaign offices
   of presidential headquarters in Des Moines, Iowa, on Dec. 27, and
   peacefully shut down the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3.a**

   The group is believed to have no centralized operational leadership and
   appears to be piggybacking on the Occupy Des Moines movement.

   But Occupy Des Moines leaders say therea**s a difference: The Iowa
   groupa**s planned sit-ins at presidential campaign headquarters are not
   intended to shut down the Iowa caucuses, they say. Rather, they want to
   target presidential candidates and big-moneyed corporations that activists
   say are pulling the strings behind the scenes.

   While there are similarities between the groupsa** beliefs, they are
   separate, Occupy Des Moines participants emphasized Sunday.

   a**I dona**t like it one bit,a** former Rep. Ed Fallon, a Des Moines
   Democrat and participant in Occupy Des Moines, said of the video on
   Sunday. a**It doesna**t fit with my definition of Gandhi- and Martin
   Luther King Jr.-style nonviolence. The core of nonviolent action is truth.
   And if you are doing everything you can to be truthful, then you should be
   up front and transparent. No distorting of your voice or hiding.a**

   FBI sees Anonymous as security threat

   The Anonymous movement has become a potential national security threat,
   according to an article published in September by the Associated Press.

   The FBI has carried out more than 75 raids and arrested at least 16 people
   this year in connection with illegal Internet hacking jobs for which the
   group has claimed responsibility, according to the AP. One demonstration
   disrupted traffic in San Francisco as a protest after the Bay Area Rapid
   Transit system shut off cell service to deter a planned protest of a
   police shooting on a subway platform.

   The group also claimed responsibility for hacking the online payment
   processing center PayPal after it had suspended WikiLeaksa** account after
   WikiLeaks published sensitive U.S. government intelligence documents, the
   AP reported.

   Three of the Iowa campaign headquarters of presidential candidates are in
   Urbandale a** those of Michele Bachmann, a U.S. representative from
   Minnesota; former Godfathera**s Pizza CEO Herman Cain; and former
   Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.

   Urbandale police are aware of the video, and while they arena**t releasing
   details of their security plans, authorities will be prepared should the
   demonstrations take an illegal turn, Urbandale officer Randy Peterson said
   Sunday.

   a**Wea**ll just try to address any issue as they arise,a** Peterson said.

   Occupy movement: We dona**t plan to interfere with voting

   Occupy Des Moines, an offshoot of an anti-Wall Street protest group, last
   week announced plans to launch nonviolent sit-ins inside campaign offices
   in the final week before the Iowa caucuses. Some of the groupa**s members
   have said they expect large-scale arrests, but they have emphasized they
   do not plan to commit violence or interfere with voting.

   a**There might be some overlapa** in what the groups believe, a**but
   Anonymous speaks for themselves and the Occupy Movement speaks for
   itself,a** said David Goodner, a demonstrator who often speaks on behalf
   of Occupy Des Moines. a**Whether the public can understand that or not,
   Ia**m not sure, but for me therea**s a clear difference.a**

   State officials were preparing for a variety of public safety scenarios
   associated with the Iowa caucuses before the video was released, said John
   Benson, a public information officer for Iowaa**s Homeland Security and
   Emergency Management Division

   a**Obviously with the video that theya**ve put out and some of the other
   work theya**re doing, that certainly increases your overall awareness,a**
   Benson said. a**But to say wea**re going to do something specific in our
   planning process, we cana**t say that right now, but it certainly has our
   attention.a**

   Party leaders: Let caucuses proceed

   Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Matt Strawn said the partya**s state
   central committee will discuss the situation at its next meeting.

   a**Successive generations of Iowans of both political parties have worked
   awfully hard to make sure Iowans have this opportunity to participate in
   this first-in-the-nation caucus,a** Strawn said. a**I certainly will do
   anything in my power to keep outside agitators from ruining something that
   a lot of people have worked very hard for over a long period of time.a**

   The integrity of the Iowa caucuses would be eroded should attempts to shut
   them down be successful, said Iowa Democratic Party Chairwoman Sue
   Dvorsky.

   a**If anyone is coming and planning to make it so the participants of the
   caucus cannot have a civil and civic conversation, then of course that
   would erode the integrity of the caucuses, and it flies in the face of
   what the caucuses are,a** Dvorsky said. a**Theya**re the most basic
   long-standing tradition in this country of neighbors coming together to
   talk about political issues.a**

   She continued: a**Ia**m hoping Iowans can protect their ability to speak
   freely and respectfully with their neighbors.a**

   About Anonymous

   Anonymous emerged in 2003 from an Internet chat channel where members
   organized web incidents for their own amusement.

   By 2008, the prankster nature of Anonymous morphed into a**hacktivism,a**
   where members sabotaged websites and leaked confidential information for
   political purposes, according to law enforcement authorities.

   The group has no formal leadership and is generally considered to be more
   of a movement than an organization. As the name implies, its members
   generally dona**t identify themselves.

   The group has generally concentrated on Internet hacking. This summer, it
   claimed credit for hacking into a Booz Allen Hamilton website and leaking
   email addresses of 90,000 U.S. military personnel and hacking a Monsanto
   Co. website and releasing personal data on 2,500 employees.

   Sources: USA Today and the Associated Press

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967
   www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-10 14:15:47</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1063815_re-ct-anonymous-and-occupy-divergence-in-the-iowa-caucuses-.html</permalink>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1067796</id>
    <title>Re: USE ME Re: Discussion- Assange Arrested
</title>
    <description>Take down the money.  Go after his infrastructure.   The tools we are
using to nail and de-construct Wiki are the same tools used to dismantle
and track aQ.  Thank Cheney &amp; 43.  Big Brother owns his liberal
terrorist arse. 

Bayless Parsley wrote:
&gt; On 12/7/10 7:43 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
&gt;&gt; *Here's my full set of thoughts.  This may be a little too informal
&gt;&gt; for our regular articles.  Hopefully this addresses the questions
&gt;&gt; that have already come up. 
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and
&gt;&gt; public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7.  He is due to
&gt;&gt; appear in a court in Westminster soon to face charges of rape,
&gt;&gt; accused by two woman in Sweden.  Charges of sexual assault rarely are
&gt;&gt; passed through Interpol red notices, like this case, so this is no
&gt;&gt; doubt about trying to disrupt WikiLeaks release of government
&gt;&gt; documents.  While it's possible that Assange's arrest could disrupt
&gt;&gt; the long-term viability of WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release of
&gt;&gt; cables in the short-term and governments will now be concerned about
&gt;&gt; what the organization may release in revenge.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Leadership is extremely important in non-governmental organizations
&gt;&gt; that have not institutionalized.  From terrorist grous  to charities
&gt;&gt; [LINK:
&gt;&gt; http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090923_death_top_indonesian_militant],
&gt;&gt; these organizations often ebb and flow along with their founders. 
&gt;&gt; WikiLeaks is a new organization that has a created a novel method for
&gt;&gt; an old practice- leaking confidential government information in an
&gt;&gt; attempt to influence politics.  Leaking will not go away with
&gt;&gt; Assange's arrest, but WikiLeaks might. 
&gt;&gt; *
&gt;&gt; Assange created Wikileaks with himself* as the only public face-- he
&gt;&gt; leads supports, drives donations, and faces criticism.  This has made
&gt;&gt; many in the organization unhappy, and some have left it after
&gt;&gt; disagreeing with him. *I don't think ppl are unhappy that he is the
&gt;&gt; supreme leader; i think they're unhappy b/c he's a dick head who
&gt;&gt; doesn't allow anyone else to voice any opinions whatsoever. there is
&gt;&gt; a difference.*  If Assange were to face charges in Sweden for sexual
&gt;&gt; assault or new charges in the UK or US and was found guilty,
&gt;&gt; WikiLeaks would still need someone to operate it.  Assange may have
&gt;&gt; someone waiting in the wings, but that is not evident. 
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; WikiLeaks has also suffered logistically and as a brand.  As national
&gt;&gt; governments put pressure on its infrastructure, its websites have
&gt;&gt; been shut and most importantly its main source of funding- PayPal-
&gt;&gt; has closed WikiLeaks account. *Does MasterCard own PayPal? I saw
&gt;&gt; something in an OS article about MasterCard cutting off WikiLeaks'
&gt;&gt; accounts*
&gt;&gt; With such pressure and government monitoring, future leakers may be
&gt;&gt; too afraid of getting intercepted and go elsewhere.  Moreover, this
&gt;&gt; new set of documents have not worked out like Assange expected- the
&gt;&gt; *U.S. *public is not angry at the State Department, but many are
&gt;&gt; angry at Assange and his organization. 
&gt;&gt; *
&gt;&gt; Immediately following Assange's arrest, WikiLeaks spokesperson
&gt;&gt; **Kristinn Hrafnsson said that it would not stop the group's
&gt;&gt; operations. Indeed, whether Assange remains behind bars or not, it
&gt;&gt; most likely will not* stop the continued leaks of this large batch of
&gt;&gt; US State Department cables.  It also won't shut down WikiLeaks, which
&gt;&gt; still maintains its website *(albeit currently on a Swiss server,
&gt;&gt; after its initial URL's were deactivated..or something in computer
&gt;&gt; speak, I don't know)* and the ability to collect information from
&gt;&gt; leakers.  So in the short-term, WikiLeaks will maintain.  The
&gt;&gt; question remains if it has created a truly sustainable institutions--
&gt;&gt; one where leaders are replacable, members can adapt to changing
&gt;&gt; circumstance, and representatives can aid and inspire new leakers. 
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; If Asange is extradited to Sweden and tried of one count of unlawful
&gt;&gt; coercion, two counts of sexual molestation and one count of rape,
&gt;&gt; will he be able to maintain WikiLeaks image *define that image; I
&gt;&gt; would argue that this point is largely irrelevant. it's not like
&gt;&gt; there have been hundreds of leakers just dishing out info to him b/c
&gt;&gt; they admire him. it was Bradley Manning who did it in one fell
&gt;&gt; swoop*.?  That is hard to say, but growing public criticism of him
&gt;&gt; indicates his inability to grow WikiLeaks support base.  *the
&gt;&gt; following sentence does not flow with the previous parts of this
&gt;&gt; para* Western govrenments also fear whatever is contained in his ___
&gt;&gt; file, for which he threatens to release an encryption key if
&gt;&gt; something happens to him.  WikiLeaks has already released its most
&gt;&gt; damaging documents *this is our theory; we don't know if this is true
&gt;&gt; or not *-- its attempt to get public attention-- and they haven't
&gt;&gt; amounted to much.  This new file likely contains no more damaging
&gt;&gt; information, but instead is full of names.  The names of sources who
&gt;&gt; will be at risk and those of diplomats, military or intelligence
&gt;&gt; officers who could lose their jobs. 
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; WikiLeaks is now facing a conundrum that all new organizations
&gt;&gt; do--the ability to maintain and transition leadership through adverse
&gt;&gt; circumstances.  Maybe Assange will be released quickly-- STRATFOR
&gt;&gt; cannot speak to the veracity of the charges against him-- but if he
&gt;&gt; isn't, WikiLeaks will struggle to survive. 
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; On 12/7/10 6:36 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt; I would imagine the most politically "exciting" stuff has been
&gt;&gt;&gt; published (much of which we already knew) but some of the less sexy
&gt;&gt;&gt; things may be more damaging when released or released uncensored b/c
&gt;&gt;&gt; it burns sources and people's careers (a few people have already
&gt;&gt;&gt; lost their jobs in western countries...what about sources in less
&gt;&gt;&gt; democratic countries)
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; On 12/7/10 5:18 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; I am not clear about your argument in the last line. Why this
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; arrest could disrupt long-term viability of Wikileaks? I would say
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; the opposite, that there might be short-term disruptions (latest
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; release was two days ago) but Wikileaks will work in the long-term.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; They already have over 250K documents and if they release them at
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; the same pace, Wikileaks will have very long-term viability. Also,
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Ben's point below about possibly backed up documents is worth
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; considering. 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; One more question. How do we now that Wikileaks has more sensitive
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; information that governments should be concerned about as a
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; revenge? Recall George's initial argument that they probably
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; published most sensitive information at the very beginning to draw
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; attention. 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; ------------------------------------------------------------------------
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; *From: *"Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; *To: *"Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; *Sent: *Tuesday, December 7, 2010 12:42:49 PM
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; *Subject: *Discussion- Assange Arrested
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; We had the discussion below on Friday when it was first suggested
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; that Assange would be arrested.  Here's a bit more:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7.  He is due
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; to appear in a court in Westminster soon to face charges of rape,
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; accused by two woman in Sweden.  Charges of sexual assault rarely
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; are passed through Interpol red notices, like this case, so this is
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; no doubt about trying to disrupt WikiLeaks release of government
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; documents.  While it's possible that Assange's arrest could disrupt
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; the long-term viability of WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; of cables in the short-term and governments will now be concerned
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; about what the organization may release in revenge.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; see discussion below.  (revenge = that encrypted 'security' file)
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; ------------------------------------------------------------------------
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; *From: *"Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; *To: *"Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; *Sent: *Friday, December 3, 2010 10:23:51 AM
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; *Subject: *Re: [OS] UK/US/AUSTRALIA/CT- WikiLeaks back online,
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Assange close        to arrest
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; yes, most likely would not stop these.  but it could disrupt
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; whatever might be next. 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Also all this trouble with internet hosting could serve to slow
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; down this set of leaks.  And maybe a combination of wikileaks
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; arrest and server shutdowns could stop it. 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On 12/3/10 9:20 AM, Ben West wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;     If Assange is running the show and his staff isn't as confident
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;     as he is, then arresting him now could very well stop the flow
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;     of cables. But all it takes is one person to keep it going - or
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;     just dump them all at once if it gets too dicey, and these
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;     files have been very widely distributed so far. I can't imagine
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;     anyone reclaiming all the documents now.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;     On 12/3/2010 8:54 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         yeah also remember there was an article by nytimes i think
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         that alot of people on his staff were uncomfortable with
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         the way things were playing out, so without him there they
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         may loose nerve or come to their better senses
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         On 12/3/10 8:48 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             Yes, like Fred's source pointed out--arrest and trial
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             would just be a political circus.  It would probably
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             not disrupt wikileaks.  BUT, occasonally a leader makes
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             an organization, and maybe no one as capable will be
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             willing to fill his shoes.  Or at least, won't be able
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             to get as much pubilicity for wikileaks.  As you also
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             said, it could tarnish both Assange's and Wikileaks'
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             repution.  That coul dserve to discredit and undermine
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             the group.  Maybe people would be less inclined to leak
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             to it, or the public would be less inclined to pay
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             attention--or more importantly support wikileaks
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             financially.  Though I admit the chance of this causing
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             the public to pay less attention is minimal, and in
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             fact would probably increase attention on the guy. 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             (though personally, getting a rapist off the street is
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             getting a rapist off the street.  Also, his mom owns a
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             puppet theater...)
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             On 12/3/10 8:38 AM, Ben West wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 What would the overall significance of his arrest
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 be? It's likely that the files are backed up
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 elsewhere and that someone else could give the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 go-ahead for releasing them (that could very well
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 already be the case) and if his back-ups are
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 anything like Assange, they would welcome the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 publicity that would come to them by filling his
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 shoes.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 If the British got custody of him, they could
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 conduct searches or evidence that would support
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 rape charges and, if they happened to find material
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 regarding the leaks, that could lead to new
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 charges. But this has been coming for a while, and
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 if Assange was smart, he would have turned over any
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 really sensitive stuff by now, which would decrease
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 the likelihood of police finding anything juicy.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 Seems to me that all this really does is tarnish
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 his reputation and make him look like scum. It
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 provides some public distraction from all the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 leaked documents, but doesn't undermine their
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 impact - just undermines the character of the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 person who facilitated the leaks.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 any other thoughts?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 On 12/3/2010 7:40 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                     I may have sent this out before- Assange
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                     walking out of a CNN interview.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lisa9XTRLb4
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                     just shows how far his head is up his ass. 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                     On 12/3/10 7:32 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                         looks like Assange is in the UK and they
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                         might actually roll on him.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                         On 12/3/10 7:31 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             *OG source
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             *
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Net closes on Assange: arrest by
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             British police expected in days*
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             By Mark Hughes and Jerome Taylor
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Friday, 3 December 2010
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/net-closes-on-assange-arrest-by-british-police-expected-in-days-2149805.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Julian Assange, the WikiLeaks founder,
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             is expected to be arrested in the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             coming days after Swedish prosecutors
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             filed a new warrant with British
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             authorities.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             The Independent revealed yesterday that
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             a procedural error with the European
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Arrest Warrant had delayed the arrest
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             of the 39-year-old Australian, who is
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             wanted in Sweden over sexual
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             allegations but has been in England
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             since October.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Police in Gothenburg claim they have
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             now submitted a fresh warrant to the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Serious Organised Crime Agency. Soca is
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             expected to instruct Scotland Yard to
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             arrest Mr Assange and have him appear
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             before an extradition hearing â€“
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             although as of last night the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Metropolitan Police had yet to receive
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             the warrant.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Police sources have previously said
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             that they received a letter from Mr
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Assange's UK-based lawyer, Mark
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Stephens, containing information about
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             how to contact Mr Assange should they
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             need to.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Details of the new arrest warrant came
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             as a last-ditch attempt to have the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             allegations against Mr Assange dropped
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             failed. Sweden's highest court upheld
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             the arrest order and refused to let him
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             appeal against a lower court's ruling.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Last night, Mr Assange's family spoke
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             of their fears for his safety after
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             increasingly shrill statements from
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             American commentators who have called
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             for his assassination. His mother,
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Christine Assange, said "the forces
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             that he's challenging are too big".
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             The arrest warrant filed with Soca
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             states that he was wanted on suspicion
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             of rape, sexual molestation and
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             unlawful coercion. But Soca requested a
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             new warrant. A spokeswoman for the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Swedish National Police Board told the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             BBC that the original one had been
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             refused because it listed only the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             maximum penalty for the most serious
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             crime alleged, rather than for all of
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             the crimes.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             When the arrest is made, Mr Assange
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             will be taken before an extradition
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             hearing at Westminster magistrates'
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             court. If he refuses to be extradited,
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             a judge will preside over an
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             extradition hearing and will rule
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             whether he should be sent to Sweden or
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             discharged.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Last night, Mr Stephens said he would
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             challenge any arrest in British courts.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             "The process in this case has been so
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             utterly irregular that the chances of a
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             valid arrest warrant being submitted to
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             me are very small," he said. Mr
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Stephens has accused Swedish
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             prosecutors of launching a witch-hunt
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             against his client, who strongly denies
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             the rape allegations and says he is
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             being smeared because of the exposÃ©s
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             published by his website.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             He has maintained that Swedish
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             prosecutors have yet to provide any
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             evidence against Mr Assange and have
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             ignored his requests to meet with them.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             He also expressed concerns at the way
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             the UK and Swedish authorities were
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             handling the case.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             "I feel like I am sitting in the middle
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             of a surreal Swedish fairytale," he
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             said. "The trolls keep threatening to
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             come on and keep making noises off
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             stage. But at the moment, no appearance
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             from them."
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             In an interview with an Australian
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             newspaper, Mr Assange's mother defended
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             her son and lambasted hawks in the US
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             who have called for his death.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Ms Assange, who runs a puppet theatre
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             in Noosa, a Queensland beach resort,
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             defended her son's decision to publish
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             thousands of classified US documents on
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             the website. "He sees what he's doing
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             as doing a good thing in the world â€“
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             fighting baddies, if you like," she
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             told Queensland's Courier-Mail.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Ms Assange â€“ who does not even own a
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             computer â€“ described her son as a hero
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             of the internet. But she added that she
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             feared he had "gotten too smart for
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             himself", saying: "I'm concerned it's
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             gotten too big and the forces that he's
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             challenging are too big." She did not
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             want him "hunted down and jailed".
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             On 12/3/10 7:24 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 *WikiLeaks back online, Assange
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 close to arrest*
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Updated 2 hours 45 minutes ago
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/12/03/3084384.htm
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 The WikiLeaks website is back
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 online with a new Swiss address
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 after its previous domain name was
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 killed.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 The whistleblower website's
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 original domain host, EveryDNS.net,
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 says it terminated its services
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 because Wikileaks had been coming
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 under "massive" cyber attacks.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 The new address - wikileaks.ch -
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 was put online six hours after the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 original site wikileaks.org was killed.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 An internet trace of the new domain
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 name suggests that the site itself
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 is still hosted in Sweden and in
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 France.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Web users accessing the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 wikileaks.ch address are directed
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 to a page under the URL
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 http://213.251.145.96/ which gives
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 them access to the former site,
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 including a massive trove of leaked
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 US diplomatic traffic.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 The WikiLeaks website released more
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 than 250,000 secret US diplomatic
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 cables this week, which has left
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 governments around the world
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 scrambling to deal with the fallout.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Meanwhile, British media reports
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Scotland Yard could arrest the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 site's founder Julian Assange
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 within days.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Prosecutors in Sweden want to
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 question Mr Assange over alleged
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 sex crimes involving two women
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 during a visit to Stockholm in August.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Mr Assange, who was born in
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Australia, has not been charged and
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 he denies the allegations.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 He reportedly avoided arrest this
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 week because Swedish authorities
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 had filled out an Interpol red
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 notice incorrectly.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Britain's Independent newspaper
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 reports that police know Mr
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Assange's whereabouts in England
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 and are expected to arrest him in
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 the coming days.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Mr Assange's Stockholm-based lawyer
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Bjoern Hurtig says he will fight
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 his client's extradition to Sweden
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 in the event of his arrest.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 "Together with my British colleague
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Mark Stephens and international
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 experts, we will fight the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 extradition warrants," he said.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 A WikiLeaks spokesman says Mr
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Assange has to remain out of the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 public eye because he is facing
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 assassination threats following the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 whistleblowing website's
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 publication of the secret cables.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Several US senators have also
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 called for him to be charged with
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 espionage.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Senator Dianne Feinstein says the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 leak is a serious breach of
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 national security and action must
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 be taken.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 "We have reviewed the espionage
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 statutes and we believe it
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 qualifies," she said.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 "That this, allowed to be carried
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 out, incapacitates this nation to
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 carry out business."
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Sean Noonan
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Tactical Analyst
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 www.stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Sean Noonan
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Tactical Analyst
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                             www.stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                         -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                         Sean Noonan
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                         Tactical Analyst
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                         Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                         www.stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                     -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                     Sean Noonan
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                     Tactical Analyst
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                     Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                     www.stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 Ben West
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 Tactical Analyst
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 STRATFOR
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 Austin, TX
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                                 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             Sean Noonan
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             Tactical Analyst
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             www.stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         Michael Wilson
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                     
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;     -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;     Ben West
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;     Tactical Analyst
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;     STRATFOR
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;     Austin, TX
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;               
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sean Noonan
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Tactical Analyst
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; www.stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sean Noonan
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Tactical Analyst
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; www.stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; --
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Emre Dogru
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; STRATFOR  
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Cell: +90.532.465.7514
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; www.stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt; Michael Wilson
&gt;&gt;&gt; Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
&gt;&gt;&gt; Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
&gt;&gt;&gt; Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; -- 
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Sean Noonan
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Tactical Analyst
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; www.stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;
&gt;
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 14:55:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1067796_re-use-me-re-discussion-assange-arrested-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1068170</id>
    <title>Re: Assange is off the hook...
</title>
    <description>   It is about rape. They asked him to use a condom, but he apparently likes
   unprotected sex.

   Sweden has very low threshold for what constitutes rape by the way,
   according to a lawyer friend.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Chris Farnham" &lt;chris.farnham@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 10:42:16 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   Is it possible to revoke some one's citizenship on the grounds of them
   being a total dickhead? 
   I don't care about the other leaks but the ones he has made that
   potentially damage Australian interests upset me. 
   If I thought I could switch this dickhead off without getting done I don't
   think I'd have too much of a problem.
   BTW, close family friend in Sweden who knows the girl that is pressing
   charges tells me that there is absolutely nothing behind it other than
   prosecutors that are looking to make a name for themselves. My friend
   speaks rather disparagingly about the girl who is claiming molestation. I
   also think the whole rape thing is incorrect for if I remember correctly
   rape was never the charge. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 12:23:03 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   What a douche.

   And I just want to be clear here... I have no problem with the leaks. I
   think they're great. And I think it may be good on some level to have
   stuff like this come out once in a while. What I can't stand is A) his ego
   trip and B) his clear anti-Americanism. Take the time to read the intro to
   Cablegate when you get the chance. This guy hates America more than OBL.

   What I love, however, is how nobody in the U.S. is mad about the cables.
   Hell, I have a better opinion of State Department diplomats now than I did
   before the cables. They actually said a few smart things here and there. I
   actually gave them a tip of my hat.

   I want to see him try to take on the Russians. He'd be going bald in an
   Iceland hospital within days.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 10:11:39 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   should we change our Stratfor motto now?
   Predictive, insightful intelligence...in a post-Cablegate world.
   On Dec 5, 2010, at 10:05 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

     This guy needs to take pills for his ego:

      He suggested, not for the first time, that he believes his document
      service has had a profound effect on world history: a**I believe
      geopolitics will be separated into pre- and post-Cablegate phases.a**

     Also, I have a question about this part (this is Assange's lawyer saying
     how Wikileaks would release full versions of all files -- including
     names of spies, etc. -- if harmed):

      WikiLeaks, Mr. Stephens said, has a**been subject to cyberattacks and
      censorship around the world and they need to protect themselves ... This
      is what they believe to be a thermonuclear device in the information
      age.a**

     Let's say the following scenario happens. Assange is arrested and
     extradicted to Sweden to face rape charges. Wikileaks releases the
     password to the insurance files. Would he not then be directly
     endangering U.S. and other country intelligence professionals? Would it
     not then be possible to prosecute him for espionage? 

     -- 
     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
     Marko Papic
     Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
     STRATFOR
     700 Lavaca Street - 900
     Austin, Texas
     78701 USA
     P: + 1-512-744-4094
     marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-06 05:57:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1068170_re-assange-is-off-the-hook-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1069315</id>
    <title>[EastAsia] Fwd: G3* - NEW ZEALAND- NZ leader wins 2nd term,
	pledges fiscal discipline
</title>
    <description>   biggest thing to note from election is that Key can now proceed with the
   planned asset sales (they're expected to raise between $NZ5 billion to
   $NZ7 billion).
   49 percent of Genesis Energy is expected to be the first on the block, but
   Key has also promised to sell minority stakes in power companies in
   Meridian Energy, Mighty River Power and coal producer Solid Energy. The
   Nationals also campaigned on cutting the govt's 74 percent stake in Air
   New Zealand to 51 percent.
   Why does Stratfor potentially care? Because there are a lot of energy
   assets on offer here. Let's watch and see if/how China responds.
   NZ is in a very different economic position to Oz - last year they posted
   a record deficit of $NZ18.4 billion - so there are definite opportunities
   for willing buyers.

   -------- Original Message --------

    Subject: G3* - NEW ZEALAND- NZ leader wins 2nd term, pledges fiscal       
             discipline                                                       
       Date: Sat, 26 Nov 2011 08:50:39 -0600 (CST)                            
       From: Adelaide Schwartz &lt;adelaide.schwartz@stratfor.com&gt;               
   Reply-To: analysts@stratfor.com                                            
         To: alerts@stratfor.com                                              

   NZ leader wins 2nd term, pledges fiscal discipline
   By NICK PERRY | AP aEUR" 1 hr 51 mins ago. Nov. 26, 2011
   http://news.yahoo.com/nz-leader-wins-2nd-term-pledges-fiscal-discipline-125705751.html
   WELLINGTON, New Zealand (AP) aEUR" Prime Minister John Key convincingly
   won a second term as New Zealand's leader in elections Saturday that open
   the door for the sales of billions of dollars worth of government assets
   as part of a plan to reduce the country's debt.
   Key's center-right National Party has promised to get the nation's books
   in order and begin paying down foreign debt within the next three years.
   That message has taken on a new resonance after the country's credit
   rating was downgraded this year and the situation in Europe has shown how
   debt can quickly become toxic.
   The National Party dominated the election, coming up just short of getting
   enough votes to govern alone. With most of the votes counted, the party
   was projected to win 60 of the 121 seats in Parliament, an increase of
   two. Key will look to some of the minor parties for support in forming a
   stable government.
   "Tonight New Zealanders voted for a better future, and there will be a
   better future," Key said in his victory speech.
   The center-left Labour party, which had opposed asset sales, won just 27
   percent of the vote, meaning it will lose about nine of its 43 seats. Like
   National, it also promised to get the books in order aEUR" but Labour
   planned to do it by introducing a capital gains tax and raising the age of
   retirement by two years, to 67.
   Phil Goff, Labour's leader, said the party was "bloodied, but not
   defeated."
   "It wasn't our time this time," he told supporters. The poor showing makes
   it likely Goff will soon step aside.
   Key plans to sell minority stakes in four government-owned energy
   companies and in Air New Zealand in order to raise an estimated 7 billion
   New Zealand dollars ($5.2 billion).
   The National Party's win could also open the door for more mineral
   exploration and offshore oil drilling. Labour had proposed a moratorium on
   deep-sea drilling after a cargo ship ran aground last month near the North
   Island port of Tauranga, spilling about 400 tons of fuel into the ocean
   and onto local beaches.
   Key's win will also likely continue the country's warming relationship
   with the United States. For a quarter-century, New Zealand's ban on
   nuclear warships caused a rift, particularly over defense. However, New
   Zealand's small troop presence in Afghanistan and a promise by the U.S. to
   send a contingent of Marines to New Zealand next year point to a thaw.
   The U.S. and New Zealand are also among nine Pacific countries negotiating
   a free trade deal in the region.
   The election was also marked by the unexpected return to Parliament of
   Winston Peters, the mercurial leader of the anti-immigration New Zealand
   First party, which has shored up support among older voters who approve of
   its generous policies for them.
   New Zealand First won about 7 percent of the vote, enough for eight seats,
   after getting shut out of the last election in 2008.
   The Green party, meanwhile, enjoyed its best showing ever, winning 11
   percent of the vote.
   But the election also spelled the near-demise of the conservative Act
   party, which won five seats in the last election but this time could
   manage just one. Act party leader Don Brash announced he would resign
   Sunday.
   National's campaign hinged on the personal popularity of Key, a former
   currency trader whose easygoing demeanor appeals to many. His image was
   placed on hundreds of National billboards.
   Key's common touch was reassuring to people when a powerful earthquake
   struck Christchurch last February, said Jennifer Lees-Marshment, a
   political studies lecturer at the University of Auckland. It also enabled
   him to share in their excitement in October when the country's national
   All Blacks team won the Rugby World Cup.
   Voters were also deciding whether to keep their electoral system, in which
   parties win parliamentary seats based on the proportion of votes they
   receive. Some wanted to return to a winner-takes-all format, although
   polls indicated most favored sticking with the current system.
   The final results of that measure won't be known for two weeks. In early
   results, however, about 54 percent of voters favored keeping the
   German-style proportional system.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-28 08:04:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-07-29 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1069315_-eastasia-fwd-g3-new-zealand-nz-leader-wins-2nd-term-pledges.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>lena.bell@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1072269</id>
    <title>Re: Assange is off the hook...
</title>
    <description>      a**I believe geopolitics will be separated into pre- and post-Cablegate
      phases.a**

   I think we should write a diary tomorrow -- barring anything truly
   important -- on why this dickhead is wrong.

   I volunteer.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "George Friedman" &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;
   To: "Analysts" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 10:10:50 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   Think of this. He is saying he is dedicated to revealing the truth.
   However he will not reveal the truth if he is let off on rape charges.

   What a piece of work.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Sun, 5 Dec 2010 22:05:28 -0600 (CST)
   To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Assange is off the hook...
   This guy needs to take pills for his ego:

      He suggested, not for the first time, that he believes his document
      service has had a profound effect on world history: a**I believe
      geopolitics will be separated into pre- and post-Cablegate phases.a**

   Also, I have a question about this part (this is Assange's lawyer saying
   how Wikileaks would release full versions of all files -- including names
   of spies, etc. -- if harmed):

      WikiLeaks, Mr. Stephens said, has a**been subject to cyberattacks and
      censorship around the world and they need to protect themselves ... This
      is what they believe to be a thermonuclear device in the information
      age.a**

   Let's say the following scenario happens. Assange is arrested and
   extradicted to Sweden to face rape charges. Wikileaks releases the
   password to the insurance files. Would he not then be directly endangering
   U.S. and other country intelligence professionals? Would it not then be
   possible to prosecute him for espionage?

   --

   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

   Marko Papic

   Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

   STRATFOR

   700 Lavaca Street - 900

   Austin, Texas

   78701 USA

   P: + 1-512-744-4094

   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-06 06:17:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1072269_re-assange-is-off-the-hook-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1073282</id>
    <title>RE: Counterterrorism: Shifting from the Who to the How
</title>
    <description>   TrapWire is a technology solution predicated upon behavior patterns in red
   zones to identify surveillance.   It helps you connect the dots over time
   and distance. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Mike Jeffers
   Sent: Tuesday, November 03, 2009 4:05 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: Counterterrorism: Shifting from the Who to the How
   Great piece, one small question.  
   On Nov 3, 2009, at 2:06 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     A joint Stick/Fred production.
      
     We know what we are talking about, and this makes sense to us - but
     please make sure that we have explained this in terms that can be
     understood by someone other than Fred and me.
      
      
     &lt;atta9339.jpg&gt;
     The Who
      
      
     &lt;Outlook.jpg&gt;
     The How
      
      
     Counterterrorism: Shifting from the Who to the How
      
     In the eleventh edition of the online magazine [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/yemen_al_qaedas_resurgence ] Sada
     al-Malahim (The Echo of Battle) which was released to jihadist Web sites
     last week, the leader of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) [ link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090128_al_qaeda_arabian_peninsula_desperation_or_new_life
     ] Nasir al-Wuhayshi, wrote an article in which he called for jihadists
     to conduct simple attacks against a variety of targets. The targets he
     mentioned included "any tyrant, intelligence den, prince," or "minister"
     (referring to the governments in the Muslim world like Egypt, Saudi
     Arabia and Yemen), and "any crusaders whenever you find one of them,
     like at the airports of the crusader western countries that participate
     in the wars against Muslim, or their living compounds, trains etc."
     (obviously referring to the U.S. and Europe.)
      
     Al-Wuhayshi, an ethnic Yemeni who spent time in Afghanistan serving as a
     lieutenant under Osama Bin Laden, noted these simple attacks could be
     conducted using readily available weapons, such as knives, clubs or
     small improvised explosive devices (IEDs). According to al-Wuhayshi,
     jihadists "don't need to conduct a big effort or spend a lot of money to
     manufacture 10 grams of explosive material more or less" and that they
     should not "waste a long time finding the materials, because you can
     find all these in your mother's kitchen, or at your hand or in any city
     you are in." 
      
     The fact that these instructions were given by al-Wuhayshi in an
     internet magazine distributed via jihadist chat rooms and not some
     secret meeting with his operational staff demonstrates that they are
     clearly intended to reach [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090805_paying_attention_grassroots ]
     grassroots jihadists - and are not intended just as internal guidance
     for AQAP members. Al- Wuhayshi was encouraging grassroots jihadists to
     "do what Abu al-Khair did" referring to [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090902_aqap_paradigm_shifts_and_lessons_learned 
     ] AQAP member Abdullah Hassan Taleh al-Asiri, the Saudi suicide bomber
     who attempted to kill Saudi Deputy Interior Minister Prince Mohammed bin
     Nayef with a small IED on August 28, 2009.
      
     The most concerning aspect of al-Wuhayshi's statement is that it is
     largely true. Improvised explosive mixtures are relatively easy to make
     from readily available chemicals -- if a person has the proper training
     -- and attacks using small IEDs or other readily attainable weapons such
     as knives or clubs [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090603_lone_wolf_lessons ] (or firearms
     in the U.S.) are indeed quite simple to conduct.
      
     As STRATFOR has [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/al_qaeda_2007_continuing_devolution ] noted for
     several years now, with al Qaeda's structure under continual attack and
     no regional al Qaeda franchise groups in the Western Hemisphere, the
     most pressing jihadist threat to the U.S. homeland at present stems from
     grassroots jihadists and not the al Qaeda core. This trend has been
     borne out by the large number of plots and arrests over the past several
     years, to include several so far in 2009. The grassroots have likewise
     proven to pose a critical threat to Europe.
      
     From a counterterrorism perspective, the problem posed by grassroots
     operatives is that unless they somehow self-identify [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090521_u_s_foiled_plot_and_very_real_grassroots_risk
     ] by contacting a government informant or other person who reports them
     to authorities, or they [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20091021_curious_case_adlene_hicheur ]
     conduct electronic correspondence with a person or organization under
     government scrutiny, they are very difficult to detect.
      
     The threat posed by grassroots operatives, and the difficulty
     identifying them, highlight the need for counterterrorism programs to
     adopt a proactive, protective intelligence approach to the problem -- an
     approach that focuses on "the how" of militant attacks instead of just
     "the who".
      
     The How
      
     In the traditional, reactive, approach to counterterrorism, where
     authorities respond to a crime scene after a terrorist attack in order
     to find and arrest the militants responsible for the attack, it is
     customary to focus on "the who" behind the attack. Indeed, in this
     traditional approach, the only time much emphasis is placed on "the how"
     is either in an effort to identify a suspect when the attack was
     conducted by an unknown actor, or to prove that a particular suspect was
     responsible for the attack during a trial. Beyond these limited
     purposes, not much attention is paid to "the how."
      
     Now, catching and prosecuting those who commit terrorist attacks is a
     good thing, but from our perspective what is even more important is
     preventing the attack in the first place, and prevention requires a
     proactive approach.  In order to pursue such a proactive approach to
     counterterrorism, "the how" becomes the critical question. By studying
     and understanding how attacks are conducted, authorities can then
     establish systems to proactively identify early indicators that attack
     planning is occurring. People involved in that attack planning can then
     be focused on, identified, and action can be taken prevent them from
     conducting the attack(s) they are plotting. This means that focusing on
     "the how" can lead to previously unidentified suspects - those who do
     not self-identify.
      
     How is the primary question addressed by [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/proactive_tool_protective_intelligence
      ] protective intelligence, which is, at its core, a process for
     proactively identifying and assessing potential threats.  Focusing on
     "the how" then, requires protective intelligence practitioners to
     carefully study the tactics, tradecraft and behavior associated with
     militant actors involved in terrorist attacks in order to search for and
     identify those behaviors before an attack takes place. Many of these
     behaviors are not by themselves criminal in nature, visiting a public
     building and observing the security measures or standing on the street
     to watch the arrival of a VIP at her office are not illegal, but they
     can be indicators that an attack is being plotted, and in the grand
     scheme of things those legal activities could turn out to be overt
     actions in furtherance of an illegal conspiracy to conduct the attack -
     but even in a case where a conspiracy cannot be proves, steps can be
     still taken to prevent a potential attack and to mitigate the risk posed
     by the people involved.  
      
     Protective intelligence is based on the fact that attacks don't just
     happen out of the blue. Rather, every terrorist attack follows a [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/themes/terrorist_attack_cycle ] discernable
     attack cycle, and there are critical points in that cycle where a plot
     is most likely to be detected by an outside observer and the critical
     activity that happens at these points can then be looked for. Among the
     most vulnerable times of in the attack cycle are while surveillance is
     being conducted and weapons are being acquired, but there are other,
     less obvious points where such activity can be spotted by someone who is
     looking for it.
      
     In order to really understand "the how", protective intelligence
     practitioners cannot just simply acknowledge that something like
     surveillance occurs. Rather they must turn a powerful lens on topics
     like pre-operational surveillance in order to study them at a granular
     level so that it can be studied and fully understood.  Dissecting an
     activity like [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/themes/surveillance_and_countersurveillance ]
     preoperational surveillance requires not only examining subjects such as
     the demeanor demonstrated by those conducting surveillance prior to an
     attack and the specific methods [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/physical_surveillance_art_blending ] and cover
     for action and cover for status utilized, but identifying certain times
     where surveillance is most likely to happen and certain optimal vantage
     points (called perches in surveillance jargon) where a surveillant is
     most likely to operate from, if he is seeking to surveil a specific
     facility or event.  This type of complex understanding of the topic of
     surveillance can then be used to help focus human or technological
     countersurveillance efforts to where they can be most effective.
      
     Unfortunately, many counterterrorism investigators are so focused on
     "the who" that they do not focus on collecting this type of granular
     "how" information. We have talked to law enforcement officers
     responsible for investigating some recent grassroots plots, and when
     asked to describe specifically how the suspects had conducted
     surveillance on the intended targets, we were met with blank stares.
     They simply had not paid attention to this type of detail. But this is
     not really the fault of these investigators. Nobody had ever explained
     to them why paying attention to and recording this type of detail was
     important. Additionally, it takes specific training and a practiced eye
     to pick out these details without glossing over them. For example, one
     must first conduct a lot of surveillance in order to become a first-rate
     countersurveillance officer. The experience of conducting surveillance
     allows you to understand what a surveillant must do and where he must be
     in order to conduct surveillance of a specific person or place.
      
     Similarly, in order to truly understand the tradecraft required to build
     an IED and the specific steps that a militant needs to complete in order
     to do so, it helps to go to an IED school where the investigator learns
     the tradecraft firsthand. Militant actors can and do change over time.
     New groups, causes and ideologies emerge, and specific militants can be
     killed, captured or retire. But the tactical steps that a militant must
     complete in order to conduct an attack are constant. It doesn't matter
     if the person planning an attack is a radical environmentalist, a
     grassroots jihadist or a member of the al Qaeda core, while these
     diverse actors will exhibit different levels of professionalism in
     regard to terrorist tradecraft, they still must follow essentially the
     same steps, accomplish the same tasks and operate in the same areas. 
     Knowing this allows protective intelligence to guard against different
     levels of threats.  
      
     Of course tactics can be change and be perfected and new tactics can be
     developed -- and technology can emerge (like cell phones and Google
     earth) -- which can alter the way in which some of these activities are
     conducted, or the time it takes to do so. However possessing a profound
     knowledge of the tradecraft and behaviors needed to execute the tactics
     allows protective intelligence practitioners to respond to such changes
     and even alter how they operate. Technology can also help the protective
     intelligence forces in their mission. There are tools such as Trapwire
     (what is trapwire? a quick phrase would help a reader who's not in the
     know) that can be focused on critical areas and that can help law
     enforcement and security forces cut through the fog of noise and
     activity to help identify things like hostile surveillance occurring in
     those critical areas identified by protective intelligence. These
     technological tools can help turn the tables on the unknown "who" by
     focusing on "the how". They will likely never replace human observation
     and experience, but they are valuable aids to human perception.
     Of course protective intelligence does not have to be the sole
     providence of the authorities. Corporate security managers and private
     security contractors can also apply the principles to protecting the
     people and facilities in their charge.
      
     Keeping it Simple?
      
     Al-Wuhayshi is right that it is not difficult to construct improvised
     explosives from a wide range of household chemicals such as peroxide and
     acetone or chlorine and brake fluid. He is also correct that some of
     those explosive mixtures can be concealed in objects ranging from
     electronic items to picture frames or can be employed in forms ranging
     from hand grenades to suicide vests. Likewise, low-level attacks can
     also be conducted using knives, clubs and guns.
      
     However -- and this is an important however -- if a militant is going to
     conduct such an attack against some of the targets al-Wuhayshi suggests,
     such as an airports, a train, or a specific leader or media personality,
     complexity creeps into the picture, and the attack planning cycle must
     be followed. The prospective attacker must observe and quantify the
     target, construct a plan to attack it and then execute that plan. It is
     the demands of conducting this process that will cause even an attacker
     previously unknown to the authorities to place himself in a position
     where he is vulnerable to being identified. If the attacker does this
     while there are people watching for him, he will likely be seen. If he
     does this while there are no watchers, there is little chance that he
     will become a "who" until after the attack has been completed. 
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
     Scott Stewart
     STRATFOR
     Office: 814 967 4046
     Cell: 814 573 8297
     scott.stewart@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com
      

   Mike Jeffers
   STRATFOR
   Austin, Texas
   Tel: 1-512-744-4077
   Mobile: 1-512-934-0636
</description>
    <date>2009-11-03 23:30:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1073282_re-counterterrorism-shifting-from-the-who-to-the-how-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1074383</id>
    <title>Re: Discussion- Assange Arrested
</title>
    <description>   Fred,
    what would be the maximum punishment for the charges you listed? has
   there been any sources that has been killed because of wikileaks?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "nathan hughes" &lt;nathan.hughes@stratfor.com&gt;, "Analyst List"
   &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, December 7, 2010 7:38:52 AM
   Subject: Re: Discussion- Assange Arrested

   Will take weeks for extradition, unless he waves the process.

   DOJ (Holder) won't seek prosecution on their own, but look for the GOP
   (Congress) to press for criminal prosecution.

   Be easy to indict.

   I would pursue Conspiracy and Political Terrorism charges and declassify
   the death of a source someone which I could link to Wiki.
    

   Nate Hughes wrote:
   &gt; Other thought is that I kind of feel like a lot of people were coming
   &gt; around to recognizing his astonishing douchebaggery and he was by this
   &gt; point undermining himself and his organization. If he does get tied up
   &gt; in the legal system, does he come out screaming all the louder? And if
   &gt; he does somehow get imprisoned, does he have the potential in
   &gt; incarceration to actually become the sort of inspirational,
   &gt; martryr-like (forgive the euphamism) figure that he always imagined
   &gt; himself to be in the free world?
   &gt; ------------------------------------------------------------------------
   &gt; *From: * Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   &gt; *Date: *Tue, 7 Dec 2010 04:42:58 -0600 (CST)
   &gt; *To: *Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   &gt; *ReplyTo: * Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   &gt; *Subject: *Discussion- Assange Arrested
   &gt;
   &gt; We had the discussion below on Friday when it was first suggested that
   &gt; Assange would be arrested.  Here's a bit more:
   &gt;
   &gt; London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and
   &gt; public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7.  He is due to
   &gt; appear in a court in Westminster soon to face charges of rape, accused
   &gt; by two woman in Sweden.  Charges of sexual assault rarely are passed
   &gt; through Interpol red notices, like this case, so this is no doubt
   &gt; about trying to disrupt WikiLeaks release of government documents.
   &gt; While it's possible that Assange's arrest could disrupt the long-term
   &gt; viability of WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release of cables in the
   &gt; short-term and governments will now be concerned about what the
   &gt; organization may release in revenge.
   &gt;
   &gt; see discussion below.  (revenge = that encrypted 'security' file)
   &gt;
   &gt; ------------------------------------------------------------------------
   &gt; *From: *"Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   &gt; *To: *"Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   &gt; *Sent: *Friday, December 3, 2010 10:23:51 AM
   &gt; *Subject: *Re: [OS] UK/US/AUSTRALIA/CT- WikiLeaks back online, Assange
   &gt; close        to arrest
   &gt;
   &gt; yes, most likely would not stop these.  but it could disrupt whatever
   &gt; might be next.
   &gt;
   &gt; Also all this trouble with internet hosting could serve to slow down
   &gt; this set of leaks.  And maybe a combination of wikileaks arrest and
   &gt; server shutdowns could stop it.
   &gt;
   &gt; On 12/3/10 9:20 AM, Ben West wrote:
   &gt;
   &gt;     If Assange is running the show and his staff isn't as confident as
   &gt;     he is, then arresting him now could very well stop the flow of
   &gt;     cables. But all it takes is one person to keep it going - or just
   &gt;     dump them all at once if it gets too dicey, and these files have
   &gt;     been very widely distributed so far. I can't imagine anyone
   &gt;     reclaiming all the documents now.
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt;     On 12/3/2010 8:54 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:
   &gt;
   &gt;         yeah also remember there was an article by nytimes i think
   &gt;         that alot of people on his staff were uncomfortable with the
   &gt;         way things were playing out, so without him there they may
   &gt;         loose nerve or come to their better senses
   &gt;
   &gt;         On 12/3/10 8:48 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
   &gt;
   &gt;             Yes, like Fred's source pointed out--arrest and trial
   &gt;             would just be a political circus.  It would probably not
   &gt;             disrupt wikileaks.  BUT, occasonally a leader makes an
   &gt;             organization, and maybe no one as capable will be willing
   &gt;             to fill his shoes.  Or at least, won't be able to get as
   &gt;             much pubilicity for wikileaks.  As you also said, it could
   &gt;             tarnish both Assange's and Wikileaks' repution.  That coul
   &gt;             dserve to discredit and undermine the group.  Maybe people
   &gt;             would be less inclined to leak to it, or the public would
   &gt;             be less inclined to pay attention--or more importantly
   &gt;             support wikileaks financially.  Though I admit the chance
   &gt;             of this causing the public to pay less attention is
   &gt;             minimal, and in fact would probably increase attention on
   &gt;             the guy.
   &gt;
   &gt;             (though personally, getting a rapist off the street is
   &gt;             getting a rapist off the street.  Also, his mom owns a
   &gt;             puppet theater...)
   &gt;
   &gt;             On 12/3/10 8:38 AM, Ben West wrote:
   &gt;
   &gt;                 What would the overall significance of his arrest be?
   &gt;                 It's likely that the files are backed up elsewhere and
   &gt;                 that someone else could give the go-ahead for
   &gt;                 releasing them (that could very well already be the
   &gt;                 case) and if his back-ups are anything like Assange,
   &gt;                 they would welcome the publicity that would come to
   &gt;                 them by filling his shoes.
   &gt;
   &gt;                 If the British got custody of him, they could conduct
   &gt;                 searches or evidence that would support rape charges
   &gt;                 and, if they happened to find material regarding the
   &gt;                 leaks, that could lead to new charges. But this has
   &gt;                 been coming for a while, and if Assange was smart, he
   &gt;                 would have turned over any really sensitive stuff by
   &gt;                 now, which would decrease the likelihood of police
   &gt;                 finding anything juicy.
   &gt;
   &gt;                 Seems to me that all this really does is tarnish his
   &gt;                 reputation and make him look like scum. It provides
   &gt;                 some public distraction from all the leaked documents,
   &gt;                 but doesn't undermine their impact - just undermines
   &gt;                 the character of the person who facilitated the leaks.
   &gt;
   &gt;                 any other thoughts?
   &gt;
   &gt;                 On 12/3/2010 7:40 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
   &gt;
   &gt;                     I may have sent this out before- Assange walking
   &gt;                     out of a CNN interview.
   &gt;
   &gt;                     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lisa9XTRLb4
   &gt;
   &gt;                     just shows how far his head is up his ass.
   &gt;
   &gt;                     On 12/3/10 7:32 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
   &gt;
   &gt;                         looks like Assange is in the UK and they might
   &gt;                         actually roll on him.
   &gt;
   &gt;                         On 12/3/10 7:31 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
   &gt;
   &gt;                             *OG source
   &gt;                             *
   &gt;                             Net closes on Assange: arrest by British
   &gt;                             police expected in days*
   &gt;                             By Mark Hughes and Jerome Taylor
   &gt;                             Friday, 3 December 2010
   &gt;                            
   http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/net-closes-on-assange-arrest-by-british-police-expected-in-days-2149805.html
   &gt;
   &gt;                             Julian Assange, the WikiLeaks founder, is
   &gt;                             expected to be arrested in the coming days
   &gt;                             after Swedish prosecutors filed a new
   &gt;                             warrant with British authorities.
   &gt;
   &gt;                             The Independent revealed yesterday that a
   &gt;                             procedural error with the European Arrest
   &gt;                             Warrant had delayed the arrest of the
   &gt;                             39-year-old Australian, who is wanted in
   &gt;                             Sweden over sexual allegations but has
   &gt;                             been in England since October.
   &gt;
   &gt;                             Police in Gothenburg claim they have now
   &gt;                             submitted a fresh warrant to the Serious
   &gt;                             Organised Crime Agency. Soca is expected
   &gt;                             to instruct Scotland Yard to arrest Mr
   &gt;                             Assange and have him appear before an
   &gt;                             extradition hearing a** although as of last
   &gt;                             night the Metropolitan Police had yet to
   &gt;                             receive the warrant.
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt;                             Police sources have previously said that
   &gt;                             they received a letter from Mr Assange's
   &gt;                             UK-based lawyer, Mark Stephens, containing
   &gt;                             information about how to contact Mr
   &gt;                             Assange should they need to.
   &gt;
   &gt;                             Details of the new arrest warrant came as
   &gt;                             a last-ditch attempt to have the
   &gt;                             allegations against Mr Assange dropped
   &gt;                             failed. Sweden's highest court upheld the
   &gt;                             arrest order and refused to let him appeal
   &gt;                             against a lower court's ruling.
   &gt;
   &gt;                             Last night, Mr Assange's family spoke of
   &gt;                             their fears for his safety after
   &gt;                             increasingly shrill statements from
   &gt;                             American commentators who have called for
   &gt;                             his assassination. His mother, Christine
   &gt;                             Assange, said "the forces that he's
   &gt;                             challenging are too big".
   &gt;
   &gt;                             The arrest warrant filed with Soca states
   &gt;                             that he was wanted on suspicion of rape,
   &gt;                             sexual molestation and unlawful coercion.
   &gt;                             But Soca requested a new warrant. A
   &gt;                             spokeswoman for the Swedish National
   &gt;                             Police Board told the BBC that the
   &gt;                             original one had been refused because it
   &gt;                             listed only the maximum penalty for the
   &gt;                             most serious crime alleged, rather than
   &gt;                             for all of the crimes.
   &gt;
   &gt;                             When the arrest is made, Mr Assange will
   &gt;                             be taken before an extradition hearing at
   &gt;                             Westminster magistrates' court. If he
   &gt;                             refuses to be extradited, a judge will
   &gt;                             preside over an extradition hearing and
   &gt;                             will rule whether he should be sent to
   &gt;                             Sweden or discharged.
   &gt;
   &gt;                             Last night, Mr Stephens said he would
   &gt;                             challenge any arrest in British courts.
   &gt;                             "The process in this case has been so
   &gt;                             utterly irregular that the chances of a
   &gt;                             valid arrest warrant being submitted to me
   &gt;                             are very small," he said. Mr Stephens has
   &gt;                             accused Swedish prosecutors of launching a
   &gt;                             witch-hunt against his client, who
   &gt;                             strongly denies the rape allegations and
   &gt;                             says he is being smeared because of the
   &gt;                             exposA(c)s published by his website.
   &gt;
   &gt;                             He has maintained that Swedish prosecutors
   &gt;                             have yet to provide any evidence against
   &gt;                             Mr Assange and have ignored his requests
   &gt;                             to meet with them. He also expressed
   &gt;                             concerns at the way the UK and Swedish
   &gt;                             authorities were handling the case.
   &gt;
   &gt;                             "I feel like I am sitting in the middle of
   &gt;                             a surreal Swedish fairytale," he said.
   &gt;                             "The trolls keep threatening to come on
   &gt;                             and keep making noises off stage. But at
   &gt;                             the moment, no appearance from them."
   &gt;
   &gt;                             In an interview with an Australian
   &gt;                             newspaper, Mr Assange's mother defended
   &gt;                             her son and lambasted hawks in the US who
   &gt;                             have called for his death.
   &gt;
   &gt;                             Ms Assange, who runs a puppet theatre in
   &gt;                             Noosa, a Queensland beach resort, defended
   &gt;                             her son's decision to publish thousands of
   &gt;                             classified US documents on the website.
   &gt;                             "He sees what he's doing as doing a good
   &gt;                             thing in the world a** fighting baddies, if
   &gt;                             you like," she told Queensland's
   Courier-Mail.
   &gt;
   &gt;                             Ms Assange a** who does not even own a
   &gt;                             computer a** described her son as a hero of
   &gt;                             the internet. But she added that she
   &gt;                             feared he had "gotten too smart for
   &gt;                             himself", saying: "I'm concerned it's
   &gt;                             gotten too big and the forces that he's
   &gt;                             challenging are too big." She did not want
   &gt;                             him "hunted down and jailed".
   &gt;
   &gt;                             On 12/3/10 7:24 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
   &gt;
   &gt;                                 *WikiLeaks back online, Assange close
   &gt;                                 to arrest*
   &gt;
   &gt;                                 Updated 2 hours 45 minutes ago
   &gt;                                
   http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/12/03/3084384.htm
   &gt;
   &gt;                                 The WikiLeaks website is back online
   &gt;                                 with a new Swiss address after its
   &gt;                                 previous domain name was killed.
   &gt;
   &gt;                                 The whistleblower website's original
   &gt;                                 domain host, EveryDNS.net, says it
   &gt;                                 terminated its services because
   &gt;                                 Wikileaks had been coming under
   &gt;                                 "massive" cyber attacks.
   &gt;
   &gt;                                 The new address - wikileaks.ch - was
   &gt;                                 put online six hours after the
   &gt;                                 original site wikileaks.org was killed.
   &gt;
   &gt;                                 An internet trace of the new domain
   &gt;                                 name suggests that the site itself is
   &gt;                                 still hosted in Sweden and in France.
   &gt;
   &gt;                                 Web users accessing the wikileaks.ch
   &gt;                                 address are directed to a page under
   &gt;                                 the URL http://213.251.145.96/ which
   &gt;                                 gives them access to the former site,
   &gt;                                 including a massive trove of leaked US
   &gt;                                 diplomatic traffic.
   &gt;
   &gt;                                 The WikiLeaks website released more
   &gt;                                 than 250,000 secret US diplomatic
   &gt;                                 cables this week, which has left
   &gt;                                 governments around the world
   &gt;                                 scrambling to deal with the fallout.
   &gt;
   &gt;                                 Meanwhile, British media reports
   &gt;                                 Scotland Yard could arrest the site's
   &gt;                                 founder Julian Assange within days.
   &gt;
   &gt;                                 Prosecutors in Sweden want to question
   &gt;                                 Mr Assange over alleged sex crimes
   &gt;                                 involving two women during a visit to
   &gt;                                 Stockholm in August.
   &gt;
   &gt;                                 Mr Assange, who was born in Australia,
   &gt;                                 has not been charged and he denies the
   &gt;                                 allegations.
   &gt;
   &gt;                                 He reportedly avoided arrest this week
   &gt;                                 because Swedish authorities had filled
   &gt;                                 out an Interpol red notice incorrectly.
   &gt;
   &gt;                                 Britain's Independent newspaper
   &gt;                                 reports that police know Mr Assange's
   &gt;                                 whereabouts in England and are
   &gt;                                 expected to arrest him in the coming
   days.
   &gt;
   &gt;                                 Mr Assange's Stockholm-based lawyer
   &gt;                                 Bjoern Hurtig says he will fight his
   &gt;                                 client's extradition to Sweden in the
   &gt;                                 event of his arrest.
   &gt;
   &gt;                                 "Together with my British colleague
   &gt;                                 Mark Stephens and international
   &gt;                                 experts, we will fight the extradition
   &gt;                                 warrants," he said.
   &gt;
   &gt;                                 A WikiLeaks spokesman says Mr Assange
   &gt;                                 has to remain out of the public eye
   &gt;                                 because he is facing assassination
   &gt;                                 threats following the whistleblowing
   &gt;                                 website's publication of the secret
   &gt;                                 cables.
   &gt;
   &gt;                                 Several US senators have also called
   &gt;                                 for him to be charged with espionage.
   &gt;
   &gt;                                 Senator Dianne Feinstein says the leak
   &gt;                                 is a serious breach of national
   &gt;                                 security and action must be taken.
   &gt;
   &gt;                                 "We have reviewed the espionage
   &gt;                                 statutes and we believe it qualifies,"
   &gt;                                 she said.
   &gt;
   &gt;                                 "That this, allowed to be carried out,
   &gt;                                 incapacitates this nation to carry out
   &gt;                                 business."
   &gt;                                 --
   &gt;
   &gt;                                 Sean Noonan
   &gt;
   &gt;                                 Tactical Analyst
   &gt;
   &gt;                                 Office: +1 512-279-9479
   &gt;
   &gt;                                 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
   &gt;
   &gt;                                 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   &gt;
   &gt;                                 www.stratfor.com
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt;                             --
   &gt;
   &gt;                             Sean Noonan
   &gt;
   &gt;                             Tactical Analyst
   &gt;
   &gt;                             Office: +1 512-279-9479
   &gt;
   &gt;                             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
   &gt;
   &gt;                             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   &gt;
   &gt;                             www.stratfor.com
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt;                         --
   &gt;
   &gt;                         Sean Noonan
   &gt;
   &gt;                         Tactical Analyst
   &gt;
   &gt;                         Office: +1 512-279-9479
   &gt;
   &gt;                         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
   &gt;
   &gt;                         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   &gt;
   &gt;                         www.stratfor.com
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt;                     --
   &gt;
   &gt;                     Sean Noonan
   &gt;
   &gt;                     Tactical Analyst
   &gt;
   &gt;                     Office: +1 512-279-9479
   &gt;
   &gt;                     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
   &gt;
   &gt;                     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   &gt;
   &gt;                     www.stratfor.com
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt;                 --
   &gt;                 Ben West
   &gt;                 Tactical Analyst
   &gt;                 STRATFOR
   &gt;                 Austin, TX
   &gt;                          
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt;             --
   &gt;
   &gt;             Sean Noonan
   &gt;
   &gt;             Tactical Analyst
   &gt;
   &gt;             Office: +1 512-279-9479
   &gt;
   &gt;             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
   &gt;
   &gt;             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   &gt;
   &gt;             www.stratfor.com
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt;         --
   &gt;         Michael Wilson
   &gt;         Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   &gt;         Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
   &gt;         Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
   &gt;
   &gt;              
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt;     --
   &gt;     Ben West
   &gt;     Tactical Analyst
   &gt;     STRATFOR
   &gt;     Austin, TX
   &gt;        
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt; --
   &gt;
   &gt; Sean Noonan
   &gt;
   &gt; Tactical Analyst
   &gt;
   &gt; Office: +1 512-279-9479
   &gt;
   &gt; Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
   &gt;
   &gt; Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   &gt;
   &gt; www.stratfor.com
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt; --
   &gt; Sean Noonan
   &gt; Tactical Analyst
   &gt; Office: +1 512-279-9479
   &gt; Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
   &gt; Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   &gt; www.stratfor.com
   &gt;
   &gt;
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 14:42:51</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1074383_re-discussion-assange-arrested-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>nicolas.miller@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1074401</id>
    <title>RE: USE ME Re: Discussion- Assange Arrested
</title>
    <description>    

   WikiLeaks has already released its most damaging documents-- its attempt
   to get public attention-- and they haven't amounted to much.  This new
   file likely contains no more damaging information, but instead is full of
   names.  The names of sources who will be at risk and those of diplomats,
   military or intelligence officers who could lose their jobs. 

    

   --And if they release these names, they come off looking like total jerks
   who don't care about the lives and welfare of innocent people and this
   will further serve to alienate global netizens, and turn public opinion
   further against Wikileaks.

    

    

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Sean Noonan
   Sent: Tuesday, December 07, 2010 8:44 AM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: USE ME Re: Discussion- Assange Arrested

    

   *Here's my full set of thoughts.  This may be a little too informal for
   our regular articles.  Hopefully this addresses the questions that have
   already come up. 

   London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and public
   spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7.  He is due to appear in a
   court in Westminster soon to face charges of rape, accused by two woman in
   Sweden.  Charges of sexual assault rarely are passed through Interpol red
   notices, like this case, so this is no doubt about trying to disrupt
   WikiLeaks release of government documents.  While it's possible that
   Assange's arrest could disrupt the long-term viability of WikiLeaks, it
   will not stop the release of cables in the short-term and governments will
   now be concerned about what the organization may release in revenge.

   Leadership is extremely important in non-governmental organizations that
   have not institutionalized.  From terrorist grous  to charities [LINK:
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090923_death_top_indonesian_militant],
   these organizations often ebb and flow along with their founders. 
   WikiLeaks is a new organization that has a created a novel method for an
   old practice- leaking confidential government information in an attempt to
   influence politics.  Leaking will not go away with Assange's arrest, but
   WikiLeaks might. 

   WikiLeaks created itself with Assange as the only public face-- he leads
   supports, drives donations, and faces criticism.  This has made many in
   the organization unhappy, and some have left it after disagreeing with
   him.  If Assange were to face charges in Sweden for sexual assault or new
   charges in the UK or US and was found guilty, WikiLeaks would still need
   someone to operate it.  Assange may have someone waiting in the wings, but
   that is not evident. 

   WikiLeaks has also suffered logistically and as a brand.  As national
   governments put pressure on its infrastructure, its websites have been
   shut and most importantly its main source of funding- PayPal- has closed
   WikiLeaks account.  With such pressure and government monitoring, future
   leakers may be too afraid of getting intercepted and go elsewhere. 
   Moreover, this new set of documents have not worked out like Assange
   expected- the public is not angry at the State Department, but many are
   angry at Assange and his organization. 

   Assange's arrest won't stop the continued leaks of this large batch of US
   State Department cables.  It also won't shut down WikiLeaks, which still
   maintains its website and the ability to collect information from
   leakers.  So in the short-term, WikiLeaks will maintain.  The question
   remains if it has created a truly sustainable institutions-- one where
   leaders are replacable, members can adapt to changing circumstance, and
   representatives can aid and inspire new leakers. 

   If Asange is extradited to Sweden and tried of one count of unlawful
   coercion, two counts of sexual molestation and one count of rape, will he
   be able to maintain WikiLeaks image?  That is hard to say, but growing
   public criticism of him indicates his inability to grow WikiLeaks support
   base.  Western govrenments also fear whatever is contained in his ___
   file, for which he threatens to release an encryption key if something
   happens to him.  WikiLeaks has already released its most damaging
   documents-- its attempt to get public attention-- and they haven't
   amounted to much.  This new file likely contains no more damaging
   information, but instead is full of names.  The names of sources who will
   be at risk and those of diplomats, military or intelligence officers who
   could lose their jobs. 

   WikiLeaks is now facing a conundrum that all new organizations do--the
   ability to maintain and transition leadership through adverse
   circumstances.  Maybe Assange will be released quickly-- STRATFOR cannot
   speak to the veracity of the charges against him-- but if he isn't,
   WikiLeaks will struggle to survive. 

   On 12/7/10 6:36 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

   I would imagine the most politically "exciting" stuff has been published
   (much of which we already knew) but some of the less sexy things may be
   more damaging when released or released uncensored b/c it burns sources
   and people's careers (a few people have already lost their jobs in western
   countries...what about sources in less democratic countries)

   On 12/7/10 5:18 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

   I am not clear about your argument in the last line. Why this arrest could
   disrupt long-term viability of Wikileaks? I would say the opposite, that
   there might be short-term disruptions (latest release was two days ago)
   but Wikileaks will work in the long-term. They already have over 250K
   documents and if they release them at the same pace, Wikileaks will have
   very long-term viability. Also, Ben's point below about possibly backed up
   documents is worth considering. 

    

   One more question. How do we now that Wikileaks has more sensitive
   information that governments should be concerned about as a revenge?
   Recall George's initial argument that they probably published most
   sensitive information at the very beginning to draw attention. 

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, December 7, 2010 12:42:49 PM
   Subject: Discussion- Assange Arrested

   We had the discussion below on Friday when it was first suggested that
   Assange would be arrested.  Here's a bit more:

   London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and public
   spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7.  He is due to appear in a
   court in Westminster soon to face charges of rape, accused by two woman in
   Sweden.  Charges of sexual assault rarely are passed through Interpol red
   notices, like this case, so this is no doubt about trying to disrupt
   WikiLeaks release of government documents.  While it's possible that
   Assange's arrest could disrupt the long-term viability of WikiLeaks, it
   will not stop the release of cables in the short-term and governments will
   now be concerned about what the organization may release in revenge.

   see discussion below.  (revenge = that encrypted 'security' file)

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Friday, December 3, 2010 10:23:51 AM
   Subject: Re: [OS] UK/US/AUSTRALIA/CT- WikiLeaks back online, Assange
   close        to arrest

   yes, most likely would not stop these.  but it could disrupt whatever
   might be next. 

   Also all this trouble with internet hosting could serve to slow down this
   set of leaks.  And maybe a combination of wikileaks arrest and server
   shutdowns could stop it. 

   On 12/3/10 9:20 AM, Ben West wrote:

   If Assange is running the show and his staff isn't as confident as he is,
   then arresting him now could very well stop the flow of cables. But all it
   takes is one person to keep it going - or just dump them all at once if it
   gets too dicey, and these files have been very widely distributed so far.
   I can't imagine anyone reclaiming all the documents now.

   On 12/3/2010 8:54 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

   yeah also remember there was an article by nytimes i think that alot of
   people on his staff were uncomfortable with the way things were playing
   out, so without him there they may loose nerve or come to their better
   senses

   On 12/3/10 8:48 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

   Yes, like Fred's source pointed out--arrest and trial would just be a
   political circus.  It would probably not disrupt wikileaks.  BUT,
   occasonally a leader makes an organization, and maybe no one as capable
   will be willing to fill his shoes.  Or at least, won't be able to get as
   much pubilicity for wikileaks.  As you also said, it could tarnish both
   Assange's and Wikileaks' repution.  That coul dserve to discredit and
   undermine the group.  Maybe people would be less inclined to leak to it,
   or the public would be less inclined to pay attention--or more importantly
   support wikileaks financially.  Though I admit the chance of this causing
   the public to pay less attention is minimal, and in fact would probably
   increase attention on the guy. 

   (though personally, getting a rapist off the street is getting a rapist
   off the street.  Also, his mom owns a puppet theater...)

   On 12/3/10 8:38 AM, Ben West wrote:

   What would the overall significance of his arrest be? It's likely that the
   files are backed up elsewhere and that someone else could give the
   go-ahead for releasing them (that could very well already be the case) and
   if his back-ups are anything like Assange, they would welcome the
   publicity that would come to them by filling his shoes.

   If the British got custody of him, they could conduct searches or evidence
   that would support rape charges and, if they happened to find material
   regarding the leaks, that could lead to new charges. But this has been
   coming for a while, and if Assange was smart, he would have turned over
   any really sensitive stuff by now, which would decrease the likelihood of
   police finding anything juicy.

   Seems to me that all this really does is tarnish his reputation and make
   him look like scum. It provides some public distraction from all the
   leaked documents, but doesn't undermine their impact - just undermines the
   character of the person who facilitated the leaks.

   any other thoughts?

   On 12/3/2010 7:40 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

   I may have sent this out before- Assange walking out of a CNN interview.

   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lisa9XTRLb4

   just shows how far his head is up his ass. 

   On 12/3/10 7:32 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

   looks like Assange is in the UK and they might actually roll on him.

   On 12/3/10 7:31 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

   *OG source
   Net closes on Assange: arrest by British police expected in days
   By Mark Hughes and Jerome Taylor
   Friday, 3 December 2010
   http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/net-closes-on-assange-arrest-by-british-police-expected-in-days-2149805.html

   Julian Assange, the WikiLeaks founder, is expected to be arrested in the
   coming days after Swedish prosecutors filed a new warrant with British
   authorities.

   The Independent revealed yesterday that a procedural error with the
   European Arrest Warrant had delayed the arrest of the 39-year-old
   Australian, who is wanted in Sweden over sexual allegations but has been
   in England since October.

   Police in Gothenburg claim they have now submitted a fresh warrant to the
   Serious Organised Crime Agency. Soca is expected to instruct Scotland Yard
   to arrest Mr Assange and have him appear before an extradition hearing -
   although as of last night the Metropolitan Police had yet to receive the
   warrant.

   Police sources have previously said that they received a letter from Mr
   Assange's UK-based lawyer, Mark Stephens, containing information about how
   to contact Mr Assange should they need to.

   Details of the new arrest warrant came as a last-ditch attempt to have the
   allegations against Mr Assange dropped failed. Sweden's highest court
   upheld the arrest order and refused to let him appeal against a lower
   court's ruling.

   Last night, Mr Assange's family spoke of their fears for his safety after
   increasingly shrill statements from American commentators who have called
   for his assassination. His mother, Christine Assange, said "the forces
   that he's challenging are too big".

   The arrest warrant filed with Soca states that he was wanted on suspicion
   of rape, sexual molestation and unlawful coercion. But Soca requested a
   new warrant. A spokeswoman for the Swedish National Police Board told the
   BBC that the original one had been refused because it listed only the
   maximum penalty for the most serious crime alleged, rather than for all of
   the crimes.

   When the arrest is made, Mr Assange will be taken before an extradition
   hearing at Westminster magistrates' court. If he refuses to be extradited,
   a judge will preside over an extradition hearing and will rule whether he
   should be sent to Sweden or discharged.

   Last night, Mr Stephens said he would challenge any arrest in British
   courts. "The process in this case has been so utterly irregular that the
   chances of a valid arrest warrant being submitted to me are very small,"
   he said. Mr Stephens has accused Swedish prosecutors of launching a
   witch-hunt against his client, who strongly denies the rape allegations
   and says he is being smeared because of the exposes published by his
   website.

   He has maintained that Swedish prosecutors have yet to provide any
   evidence against Mr Assange and have ignored his requests to meet with
   them. He also expressed concerns at the way the UK and Swedish authorities
   were handling the case.

   "I feel like I am sitting in the middle of a surreal Swedish fairytale,"
   he said. "The trolls keep threatening to come on and keep making noises
   off stage. But at the moment, no appearance from them."

   In an interview with an Australian newspaper, Mr Assange's mother defended
   her son and lambasted hawks in the US who have called for his death.

   Ms Assange, who runs a puppet theatre in Noosa, a Queensland beach resort,
   defended her son's decision to publish thousands of classified US
   documents on the website. "He sees what he's doing as doing a good thing
   in the world - fighting baddies, if you like," she told Queensland's
   Courier-Mail.

   Ms Assange - who does not even own a computer - described her son as a
   hero of the internet. But she added that she feared he had "gotten too
   smart for himself", saying: "I'm concerned it's gotten too big and the
   forces that he's challenging are too big." She did not want him "hunted
   down and jailed".

   On 12/3/10 7:24 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

   WikiLeaks back online, Assange close to arrest

   Updated 2 hours 45 minutes ago
   http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/12/03/3084384.htm

   The WikiLeaks website is back online with a new Swiss address after its
   previous domain name was killed.

   The whistleblower website's original domain host, EveryDNS.net, says it
   terminated its services because Wikileaks had been coming under "massive"
   cyber attacks.

   The new address - wikileaks.ch - was put online six hours after the
   original site wikileaks.org was killed.

   An internet trace of the new domain name suggests that the site itself is
   still hosted in Sweden and in France.

   Web users accessing the wikileaks.ch address are directed to a page under
   the URL http://213.251.145.96/ which gives them access to the former site,
   including a massive trove of leaked US diplomatic traffic.

   The WikiLeaks website released more than 250,000 secret US diplomatic
   cables this week, which has left governments around the world scrambling
   to deal with the fallout.

   Meanwhile, British media reports Scotland Yard could arrest the site's
   founder Julian Assange within days.

   Prosecutors in Sweden want to question Mr Assange over alleged sex crimes
   involving two women during a visit to Stockholm in August.

   Mr Assange, who was born in Australia, has not been charged and he denies
   the allegations.

   He reportedly avoided arrest this week because Swedish authorities had
   filled out an Interpol red notice incorrectly.

   Britain's Independent newspaper reports that police know Mr Assange's
   whereabouts in England and are expected to arrest him in the coming days.

   Mr Assange's Stockholm-based lawyer Bjoern Hurtig says he will fight his
   client's extradition to Sweden in the event of his arrest.

   "Together with my British colleague Mark Stephens and international
   experts, we will fight the extradition warrants," he said.

   A WikiLeaks spokesman says Mr Assange has to remain out of the public eye
   because he is facing assassination threats following the whistleblowing
   website's publication of the secret cables.

   Several US senators have also called for him to be charged with espionage.

   Senator Dianne Feinstein says the leak is a serious breach of national
   security and action must be taken.

   "We have reviewed the espionage statutes and we believe it qualifies," she
   said.

   "That this, allowed to be carried out, incapacitates this nation to carry
   out business."

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com

    

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com

    

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com

    

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com

    

 --

 Ben West

 Tactical Analyst

 STRATFOR

 Austin, TX

    

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com

    

 --

 Michael Wilson

 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR

 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112

 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com

  

    

 --

 Ben West

 Tactical Analyst

 STRATFOR

 Austin, TX

    

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   Office: +1 512-279-9479
   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com

 --

 Michael Wilson

 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR

 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112

 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com

  

    

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 14:54:03</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1074401_re-use-me-re-discussion-assange-arrested-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1075446</id>
    <title>Re: [Eurasia] Monti, a government without politicians
</title>
    <description>   as a rule academics do very badly in the real world -- ive more confidence
   in the bankers

   regardless, this should be fun to watch

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Adriano Bosoni" &lt;adriano.bosoni@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "EurAsia AOR" &lt;eurasia@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, November 16, 2011 3:46:31 PM
   Subject: [Eurasia] Monti, a government without politicians

   This is an interesting profile of the new Monti cabinet... only the second
   time in Italian history when a technical government is 100%
   politician-free (the previous one being the Dini government of 95-96). The
   press is already calling Monti "The Professor" (Prodi has the same
   nickname)... I'm afraid the press is creating excessive hype around the
   new government...

   Monti, a government without politicians
   November 16, 2011

   http://www3.lastampa.it/politica/sezioni/articolo/lstp/430140/

   A government of professors, rectors, officials, bankers. A government of
   few women (only three, although in leading roles), gray hair (63 years
   average age). And with no politicians.

   The professor sends two messages: one to markets on the "seriousness" and
   "quality" of his team, the other to the parties. Monti ensures that the
   solidity of its executive is not challenged by the absence of politicians,
   but rather is enhanced precisely because there would be "embarrassment" by
   their presence.

   After reading the composition of the Executive (which sees himself leading
   Economic Affairs), the Professor stresses that the guiding star of his
   government will be a quest to ensure growth. "The reliance on one person
   of the Ministry of Economic Development and Infrastructure - says of the
   appointment of Corrado Passera - corresponds to a logic that I want to
   emphasize: the initiatives for economic growth and development will be at
   the center of my government."

   Former Commissioner knows that the greatest obstacles will be in the
   Parliament. Thus he is showing his best diplomatic skills. First Monti
   thanks the political and social forces "for the partnership had during the
   consultations." Then, his predecessor, Silvio Berlusconi to whom he sends
   "cordial greetings" with "respect and attention to the work he has done."

   The Monti government, as well as having cut the number of Ministers (now
   16, Berlusconi had 23) and being born in record time (67 hours after
   receiving President Napolitano's request), stands to have a 100% technical
   profile. Palazzo Chigi will be full of specialists, recruited in
   university classrooms and offices of the ministries, not because of their
   political cloak but only for their expertise.

   A military man goes to defense, a former prefect of the Interior, an
   ambassador for Foreign Affairs, not to mention Monti taking the Economy
   Ministry: this is the impression that the new PM wanted to give his team,
   in which, after the push and pull of Letta and Amato, in the end they have
   not even entered as representatives of their party.

   But the Executive will not be weakened: "The armor of this government
   depends on our ability to act and to explain the significance of their
   actions: this is the armor that I will try with my ministers".

 --
 Adriano Bosoni - ADP
</description>
    <date>2011-11-17 14:24:57</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1075446_re-eurasia-monti-a-government-without-politicians-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>peter.zeihan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1075760</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - RUSSIA - protest update
</title>
    <description>   [LG: let's rep this]

   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Within the Prosecutor General
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   HANDLER: Lauren

   As I've been relaying, everyone is on high alert. The streets are filled
   with militia, interior forces &amp; riot police. The Europeysky shopping mall
   and Kievsky rail station are closed -- the two locations of the proposed
   protests. All main squares in the city are closed. Cars are being diverted
   away from all main squares and the mall. From the extremists skinhead and
   Muslim websites, their so-called plans are to try to clash once the sun
   goes down, so 8 or 9 pm. But we are locking the city down -- no small feat
   for a city like Moscow.

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-15 11:48:22</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1075760_insight-russia-protest-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>colibasanu@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1078390</id>
    <title>MORE Re: INSIGHT - CN65 Re: [Fwd: [OS] AUSTRALIA/MINING -Australia
	treasurer	rules out retreat over mining tax]
</title>
    <description>   I asked the source if it really looks like Rudd and his party would lose
   to the LNP what would be the change that they backtrack on the tax, to
   which he responds:  Little.  They've dug themselves such an enormous hole
   (if you forgive the irony about the pun) that if they backtrack they will
   be even worse off.  It was backtracking on emissions trading which caused
   their problems originally.

   Jennifer Richmond wrote:

     Just an opinion, of course, from the opposition.

     SOURCE: CN65
     ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
     natural resources
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator.  Source is 
     well-connected politically, militarily and economically.  He has become
     a
     private businessman helping foreign companies with M&amp;As
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
     DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

     You need to understand that the Treasurer is (a) not terribly smart, and
     (b) the most appalling grub you have ever met.  He has made his
     political career by smear and innuendo against anyone and anything in
     his way.  Not a terribly satisfactory individual.
     I am, as a matter of interest, campaign manager for the LNP in his seat.
      It iwll be a tough ask, though, because of the redistribution.

       Thought you would be interested.

       -------- Original Message --------

        Subject: [OS] AUSTRALIA/MINING -Australia treasurer rules out retreat 
                 over mining tax                                              
           Date: Thu, 27 May 2010 10:28:41 -0500                              
           From: Michael Wilson &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;                 
       Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                
             To: os &gt;&gt; The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                          

       Australia treasurer rules out retreat over mining tax
        27 May 2010 - 09H54 
       http://www.france24.com/en/20100527-australia-treasurer-rules-out-retreat-over-mining-tax

       AFP - The architect of Australia's controversial new resources tax
       rejected any weakening of the proposal Thursday, as pension funds
       warned miners that their vocal opposition was only hurting share
       prices.

       Treasury secretary Ken Henry also denied the planned 40 percent "super
       tax" on mining profits would deter investment or raise Australia's
       sovereign risk, following repeated warnings by industry giants such as
       Rio Tinto.

       There is "a lot of colour in the debate at the moment," Henry, who
       unveiled the tax earlier this month, told the Senate.

       "An enormous amount has been said by mining executives and
       commentators recently about the impact of the resource super profits
       tax on mining investment.

       "But I can say to you that today, we remain very confident of our
       forecasts for mining investment included in the budget."

       The government proposes updating the current royalties system with a
       40 percent tax on profits over six percent, to claim a greater share
       of an Asian-driven mining boom tipped to last decades.

       Mining companies believe the tax is too heavy and will drive away
       investment and jobs, derailing Australia's economic recovery, which
       has been exceptional by developed-world standards. Several firms have
       put projects on hold.

       The tax has prompted a concerted industry campaign, in turn dismissed
       as scare tactics by the government, including TV and newspaper adverts
       and a series of public warnings.

       On Thursday, a body representing Australia's mandatory pensions
       industry urged the miners to tone down their "overtly political"
       rhetoric, partly blaming the resources industry for a sudden slump in
       share prices and fund values.

       "(This) very well resourced and very consistent public relations and
       media campaign is possibly causing greater uncertainty and affecting
       share prices of major resources companies, in the context of some
       clearly very concerning news which continues to arrive out of Europe,"
       said Industry Super Network chief David Whitely.

       "I think the expectation that industry super (superannuation) funds
       would have on the major miners and the resources sector, as
       shareholders in these companies, is that they would cease this quite
       clear and overtly political campaign," Whitely told ABC Radio.

       Meanwhile Henry tempered expectations that the tax's threshold might
       be raised from six to 12 percent, after Treasurer Wayne Swan said he
       was "not ruling any of these things in or out" during consultations
       with miners.

       "I am not aware of any decisions having been taken to make fundamental
       changes to the tax plan," Henry said.

       He also rejected suggestions that the mining industry, which accounts
       for some 40 percent of Australia's exports by value, had saved the
       country from recession during last year's global downturn.

       "These statements are not supported by the facts," said Henry, noting
       that the sector shed 15 percent of its jobs in 2009.

       "Had every industry in Australia behaved in the same way, our
       unemployment rate would have increased from 4.6 percent to 19 percent
       in six months," he added.

       A group of prominent Australian economists and academics issued a
       public letter this week backing Henry's tax and dismissing the
       industry campaign against it as "misinformation".

       But Citi analysts Thursday warned that uncertainty around the tax
       could delay some projects by up to 12 months and permanently scuttle
       others, hitting government plans to return the budget to surplus
       within three years.

       -- Dow Jones Newswires contributed to this report --
       Click here to find out more!

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Watchofficer
 STRATFOR
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director, Stratfor
 US Mobile: (512) 422-9335
 China Mobile: (86) 15801890731
 Email: richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-05-28 04:33:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1078390_more-re-insight-cn65-re-fwd-os-australia-mining-australia.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1078864</id>
    <title>Re: WikiLeaks &amp; Julian Assange
</title>
    <description>   Mostly its a revelation to the ignorant. If you pay little attention to
   foreign affairs but suddenly focused on this because of media attention,
   you might think some of this is significant. If your well versed, its the
   unimportant scraps of conversations. This is the same as with the iraqi
   and afghan reports. Nothing was of significance there either.

   Woodward and bernstein were fed their story by lent and the fbi. They
   weren't investigators. They were stenographers. This isn't investigation
   either. Its more like dumpster diving and only getting the top layer of
   the garbage and thinking it was gold.

   J

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Rodger Baker" &lt;rbaker@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2010 19:34:54 -0600 (CST)
   To: Colin Chapman&lt;chapman@stratfor.com&gt;; &lt;rbaker@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: rbaker@stratfor.com, Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Analysts&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: WikiLeaks &amp; Julian Assange
   My point is that this isn't a taRgeted look at anything. It is a
   completely random selection of material, not even released in a way to
   tell a narrative. There is a signicant difference between this and
   specific leaks of targeted information.

   I'm not arguing tjhat rich people aren't helping spread this. And maybe
   some journalists will eventually use some if this to point them into the
   direection of some important investigation.

   But I have a hard time seeing these releases as some sort of journalistic
   tour du force. And reception is less changing politics than voyeuristic
   pleasure.

   --
   Sent via BlackBerry from Cingular Wireless

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Colin Chapman &lt;chapman@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2010 19:04:11 -0600 (CST)
   To: &lt;rbaker@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: WikiLeaks &amp; Julian Assange
   I did make the point about context and also said it is precisely because
   investigative journalism has died in much of the press that WL can
   flourish. (Along with many other internet operations).  And actually some
   of the stuff I have seen on WL had already been leaked to the press.
    WikiLeaks is raw, but I am not sure publication of a confidential
   document in this form and passed over on a memory stick is any different
   from a printed document handed over by a public official or whistleblower
   to a journalist, or indeed to a private intelligence company. Breaches of
   security are by the providers, not the messengers. As to spin, I disagree.
   Spinning interferes with truth. Rio Tinto was spinning that it sought
   leniency from the Chinese for Stern Hu. All the time it was providing
   secret information on his finances to the Chinese government, thereby
   condemning him to a more serious sentence. The US state department
   pretended Rudd was a great friend of the US (as indeed he was) while at
   the same time working with a leading conspirator to get rid of him. That
   these things happen it is not surprising, but when we find out about them
   they should be published not in 50 years time when a historian decides to
   write a book, but now
   On 11/12/2010, at 10:46 AM, Rodger Baker wrote:

     Much of the discussion today wasn't about assange, but about these
     wiki-supporting internet vigilantes, who sit around and mess with vidsa
     and mastercard web services. These sorts are geeks in their nom's
     basement.

     But even if funded, they do nothing to offer understanding, context,
     explanation of the material. It is a data dump. Well funded, perhaps,
     but with little value added.

     As for sick of spindoctors, I don't know. They are just spinning things
     in anothjer direction. Politically motivated, yes. Cutting through spin?
     No way. Just spinning another direction.

     As for woodward, the wiki folks aren't investigative journalists, just
     thieves. They didn't do any work, just downloaded a memory stick if
     stolen documents. 

     -- 
     Sent via BlackBerry from Cingular Wireless

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Marko Papic &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2010 16:50:43 -0600 (CST)
     To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;; chapman&lt;chapman@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: WikiLeaks &amp; Julian Assange
     Nor, in my opinion, are they, as Marko suggests, young men destined for
     greatness.

     I did not say that. I said that they are young men DISILLUSIONED by
     greatness and ego. 

     BIG difference.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Colin Chapman" &lt;chapman@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Friday, December 10, 2010 4:46:20 PM
     Subject: WikiLeaks &amp; Julian Assange

     It is wrong to characterise the WikiLeaks leaders as geeks operating
     from Mum's basement.
     Nor, in my opinion, are they, as Marko suggests, young men destined for
     greatness.
     That may be the way it reads inside America, but outside the US they are
     the Woodsteins of the internet age. They are well funded, and their
     patrons are those, who - like the voters in recent elections in Britain,
     US and Australia - who are sick of spin doctors and politicians telling
     lies. (In that sense they are like Stratfor!). The weakness is that WL
     stuff is raw and unprocessed, often not in context. 
     One of the participants in the WikiLeaks publishing operation has today
      described a visit by their correspondent to the WikiLeaks HQ in rural
     England. It's not Mum's basement, but a Georgian mansion, obviously
     donated by a generous benefactor. Many of these benefactors are
     broadcasters and rich lawyers, such as Geoffrey Robinson, who are strong
     advocates of press freedom. By its description it sounds to me as if it
     this place is in Norfolk, where my son lives, about 120 miles north east
     of London. The correspondent makes it clear that the people around
     Assange were not geeks.
     It is worth reading this article, found at 

     http://www.smh.com.au/technology/technology-news/how-i-met-julian-assange-and-secured-the-american-embassy-cables-20101210-18sxj.html

     This isn't to say that much of their stuff is either important, or
     relevant in the world of geopolitics. But some of the recent material
     is. The duplicity of Rio Tinto in feeding the Chinese secretly  data
     about its staff, including Stern HU, while simultaneously pleading for
     his release, and the many other commercial revelations are examples. 
     Finally, surely the approach here is to treat each 'leak' on its merits
     as an event, either worthy of attention or not, rather than the product
     of anarchists. If newspapers were doing their job properly,if they were
     following the edict of the great London Times editor Thomas Delane that
     'the duty of the press is disclosure' , there would be little space for
     Wikileaks. Much of the media, particularly in metropolitan America, has
     resigned from investigative journalism, preferring instead to feed off
     the corporate and government spin doctors for serious news, and publish
     tedious 'lifestyle' sections. 

     Colin

     -- 
     Marko Papic

     STRATFOR Analyst 
     C: + 1-512-905-3091
     marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-11 02:44:04</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1078864_re-wikileaks-and-julian-assange-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>rbaker@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>chapman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1079543</id>
    <title>STRATFOR Reader Response - Taking Stock of WikiLeaks
</title>
    <description>   Jack,

   I don't think there's much of a doubt that there is some legitimacy to
   suggestions that WikiLeaks could have been better with redaction. With the
   diplomatic cables especially, there has absolutely been a fallout with
   cooperative diplomatic persons being outed.

   But in the case of Afghanistan, we take a different view. The Taliban is a
   adept and aware adversary. And it is a grassroots phenomenon with
   considerable local support. These guys watch what U.S. troops do and where
   they go extraordinarily closely. So the idea that they need to read U.S.
   reports to figure out who is working with the Americans simply does not
   ring true to us.

   Are the leaks ideal or helpful? Of course not. But the claims of their
   danger seem largely overblown to us.

   We appreciate your question and close readership.

   Cheers,

   Nate
   --
   Nathan Hughes
   Director
   Military Analysis
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-15 22:17:42</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1079543_stratfor-reader-response-taking-stock-of-wikileaks-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>jackk@chicagobancorp.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1081483</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION - New EU Commission
</title>
    <description>   Some thoughts:

   Almunia - I know several competition lawyers that deal with this
   DG/Commissioner, waiting to hear their thoughts

   Barnier - As part of the deal that was supposed to appease the British,
   the top guy in this DG will be a Brit, which on its face looks great, but
   keep in mind that the Commissioner's office and the respective DG are
   often at odds. Plus the British guy has little to no actual finance
   experience - he's a career EU diplomat.

   Rehn: The Finns are completely shocked that they got a big portfolio -
   they were expecting something like enlargement again (not that it's not
   important but certainly not as big as econ)

   De Gucht: Oh Really, from development aid to TRADE? Feels like another
   compromise pick

   Marko Papic wrote:

     Resending

     ----- Original Message -----
     From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "analysts" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Saturday, November 28, 2009 11:00:04 AM GMT -06:00 Central America
     Subject: DISCUSSION - New EU Commission

     Ok, so the new EU Commission has been announced.

     What is the relevance of this EU Commission? Well for one, the Germans
     and the French have LOCKED DOWN the two key posts: internal market and
     energy!  How did they do this? By brilliant manuvering. They gave the
     Poles the EP Presidency, which Warsaw thought was uber important but is
     mainly ceremonial. That was the first key EU post and they gave it to
     the Poles first, who bought it like crazy. Then they got UK out of EU's
     internal business by giving London the FM post. This was not as "cheap"
     as the EP President, BUT it gave the post to a relative unknown Brit who
     is from Labor and now owes her relevancy completely to the EU.

     BRILLIANT.

     Here are the next steps:

       * 11-19 Jan. 2010: Hearings with the newly-nominated commissioners
         in the European Parliament.
       * 26 Jan. 2010: Final vote of the European Parliament on the full
         Commission (9.00-11.00 debate in plenary; 11.00-12.00 political
         group meetings; 12.00-13.00 vote in plenary). 
       * 1 Feb. 2010: New Commission expected to take office.
     Entire line up (my comments in orange):

     The appointments in full:

       * Jose Manuel Barroso (Portugal): President With Van Rompuy as EU
         President, Barroso still retains power. Imagine if Blair was EU
         President. It would be Barroso who?
       * Joaquin Almunia (Spain): Competition  According to EU sources, he is
         loyal to Barroso (makes sense, they are Iberian). He is also a bad
         ass. Expect him to take member states to court if he deems they are
         being protectionist. Will piss off Berlin and Paris for sure.
       * Catherine Ashton (UK): Foreign Affairs High Representative As I
         said, this was a great choice for Berlin and Paris. They get UK off
         of their hands with a post that will not let UK meddle in EU
         internal affairs.
       * Michel Barnier (France): Internal Market and Services BOOM. This
         shows how RETARDED Brown is. He installed a relative unknown who may
         go "native" into the FM post and gave up the internal market and
         services to the FRENCH!!! The City of London is PISSED.
       * Olli Rehn (Finland): Economic and Monetary Affairs Former
         Enlargement guy gets this post, also loyal to Barroso, will
         undoubtedly piss off Berlin and Paris.
       * Dacian Ciolos (Romania): Agriculture
       * John Dalli (Malta): Health and Consumer Policy Wow... granted, the
         Maltese are super health conscious, so if you're Monsanto or
         Sagenta, you are NOT happy.
       * Karel De Gucht (Belgium): Trade
       * Stefan Fu:le (Czech Republic): Enlargement This was something that
         was discussed. A new member state gets the enlargement portfolio.
         Nice compromise here as well, since Prague is not as crazy about
         Ukraine/Georgia
       * Connie Hedegaard (Denmark): Climate Action Denmark gets climate
         action, poignant.
       * Maire Geoghegan-Quinn (Ireland): Research and Innovation
       * Janusz Lewandowski (Poland): Budget/Financial Programming
       * Guenther Oettinger (Germany): Energy HUUUUUGE... Germany gets a key
         post and screws Central Europeans completely
       * Janez Potocnik (Slovenia): Environment Slovenians got on the whole
         "green" bandwaggon first, so this is cute.
       * Neelie Kroes (Netherlands): Digital Agenda
       * Laszlo Andor (Hungary): Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion Oh
         God... Hungarians in charge of employment...
       * Maria Damanaki (Greece): Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Makes sense.
       * Johannes Hahn (Austria): Regional Policy Tame choice.
       * Rumiana Jeleva (Bulgaria): International Cooperation, Humanitarian
         Aid and Crisis Response
       * Siim Kallas (Estonia): Transport
       * Cecilia Malmstro:m (Sweden): Home Affairs
       * Andris Piebalgs (Latvia): Development
       * Viviane Reding (Luxembourg): Justice, Fundamental Rights and
         Citizenship
       * Algirdas Semeta (Lithuania): Taxation and Customs Union
       * Antonio Tajani (Italy): Industry and Entrepreneurship This is
         usually the DG that fights with all the free market DGs, so Italian
         running it is a key.
       * Androulla Vassiliou (Cyprus): Education, Culture, Multilingualism
         and Youth  
       * Maros Sefcovic (Slovakia): Interinstitutional Relations and
         Administration
</description>
    <date>2009-11-30 18:32:11</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-24 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1081483_re-discussion-new-eu-commission-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>laura.jack@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/4/4586_laura_jack.vcf</path><size>295</size><md5></md5><sha1>f327c557ea3b020c9b469fe3dad1d10c6ac1b4dd</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1081910</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION - New EU Commission
</title>
    <description>   There is a LOT that goes into the Energy DG that lays down the groundwork
   for influencing European energy without any votes being taken.

   Think about the push that the EU had to force energy conglomerates to
   divide up their downstream and upstream production. That came from a DG
   led by a Latvian. That ain't happening with a German in power. Or at
   least, not if he is fine with what is going on with German-Russian energy
   relationship.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Emre Dogru" &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, November 30, 2009 11:24:47 AM GMT -06:00 Central America
   Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - New EU Commission

   I don't want to play down the appointment of German guy but I am still
   skeptical as to the extent to which the energy commissioner can push the
   EU toward an cohesive energy policy.
   &gt;From the Lisbon Treaty:
   Art. 194. Such measures shall not affect a Member State's right to
   determine the conditions for exploiting its energy resources, its choice
   between different energy sources and the general structure of its energy
   supply, without prejudice to Article 192(2)(c).

   Art. 192(2)(c) Also refers to another article, which stipulates that no
   Member State can violate EU's energy policy's general objectives. Sounds
   cool. If this happens,  measures significantly affecting a Member State's
   choice between different energy sources and the general structure of its
   energy supply   can only be adopted (HOWEVER) by the Council acting
   UNANIMOUSLY, which means that every country has the right to veto.

   Marko Papic wrote:

     Resending

     ----- Original Message -----
     From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "analysts" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Saturday, November 28, 2009 11:00:04 AM GMT -06:00 Central America
     Subject: DISCUSSION - New EU Commission

     Ok, so the new EU Commission has been announced.

     What is the relevance of this EU Commission? Well for one, the Germans
     and the French have LOCKED DOWN the two key posts: internal market and
     energy!  How did they do this? By brilliant manuvering. They gave the
     Poles the EP Presidency, which Warsaw thought was uber important but is
     mainly ceremonial. That was the first key EU post and they gave it to
     the Poles first, who bought it like crazy. Then they got UK out of EU's
     internal business by giving London the FM post. This was not as "cheap"
     as the EP President, BUT it gave the post to a relative unknown Brit who
     is from Labor and now owes her relevancy completely to the EU.

     BRILLIANT.

     Here are the next steps:

       * 11-19 Jan. 2010: Hearings with the newly-nominated commissioners
         in the European Parliament.
       * 26 Jan. 2010: Final vote of the European Parliament on the full
         Commission (9.00-11.00 debate in plenary; 11.00-12.00 political
         group meetings; 12.00-13.00 vote in plenary). 
       * 1 Feb. 2010: New Commission expected to take office.
     Entire line up (my comments in orange):

     The appointments in full:

       * JosA(c) Manuel Barroso (Portugal): President With Van Rompuy as EU
         President, Barroso still retains power. Imagine if Blair was EU
         President. It would be Barroso who?
       * Joaquin Almunia (Spain): Competition  According to EU sources, he is
         loyal to Barroso (makes sense, they are Iberian). He is also a bad
         ass. Expect him to take member states to court if he deems they are
         being protectionist. Will piss off Berlin and Paris for sure.
       * Catherine Ashton (UK): Foreign Affairs High Representative As I
         said, this was a great choice for Berlin and Paris. They get UK off
         of their hands with a post that will not let UK meddle in EU
         internal affairs.
       * Michel Barnier (France): Internal Market and Services BOOM. This
         shows how RETARDED Brown is. He installed a relative unknown who may
         go "native" into the FM post and gave up the internal market and
         services to the FRENCH!!! The City of London is PISSED.
       * Olli Rehn (Finland): Economic and Monetary Affairs Former
         Enlargement guy gets this post, also loyal to Barroso, will
         undoubtedly piss off Berlin and Paris.
       * Dacian Ciolos (Romania): Agriculture
       * John Dalli (Malta): Health and Consumer Policy Wow... granted, the
         Maltese are super health conscious, so if you're Monsanto or
         Sagenta, you are NOT happy.
       * Karel De Gucht (Belgium): Trade
       * Stefan FA 1/4le (Czech Republic): Enlargement This was something
         that was discussed. A new member state gets the enlargement
         portfolio. Nice compromise here as well, since Prague is not as
         crazy about Ukraine/Georgia
       * Connie Hedegaard (Denmark): Climate Action Denmark gets climate
         action, poignant.
       * Maire Geoghegan-Quinn (Ireland): Research and Innovation
       * Janusz Lewandowski (Poland): Budget/Financial Programming
       * Guenther Oettinger (Germany): Energy HUUUUUGE... Germany gets a key
         post and screws Central Europeans completely
       * Janez Potocnik (Slovenia): Environment Slovenians got on the whole
         "green" bandwaggon first, so this is cute.
       * Neelie Kroes (Netherlands): Digital Agenda
       * LA!szlA^3 Andor (Hungary): Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion
         Oh God... Hungarians in charge of employment...
       * Maria Damanaki (Greece): Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Makes sense.
       * Johannes Hahn (Austria): Regional Policy Tame choice.
       * Rumiana Jeleva (Bulgaria): International Cooperation, Humanitarian
         Aid and Crisis Response
       * Siim Kallas (Estonia): Transport
       * Cecilia MalmstrAP:m (Sweden): Home Affairs
       * Andris Piebalgs (Latvia): Development
       * Viviane Reding (Luxembourg): Justice, Fundamental Rights and
         Citizenship
       * Algirdas AA emeta (Lithuania): Taxation and Customs Union
       * Antonio Tajani (Italy): Industry and Entrepreneurship This is
         usually the DG that fights with all the free market DGs, so Italian
         running it is a key.
       * Androulla Vassiliou (Cyprus): Education, Culture, Multilingualism
         and Youth  
       * Maros Sefcovic (Slovakia): Interinstitutional Relations and
         Administration

 --
 C. Emre Dogru
 STRATFOR Intern
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 +1 512 226 3111
</description>
    <date>2009-11-30 18:32:31</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-24 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1081910_re-discussion-new-eu-commission-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1084229</id>
    <title>Espionage Act Presents Challenges for WikiLeaks Indictment
</title>
    <description>   Comments from the experts.  As I said before, I still don't think the
   Supreme Court has set a clear line on this issue.  Note Holder's statement
   too--suggests Fred's info is true that they may try to prosecute Assange
   under other laws. 
   Espionage Act Presents Challenges for WikiLeaks Indictment
   Sweeping Anti-Spying Law 'Makes Felons of Us All,' Legal Expert Says
   http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wikileaks-indictment-us-charge-julian-assange-espionage-act/story?id=12369173
   29 comments
   By DEVIN DWYER
   Dec. 13, 2010

   As the U.S. Justice Department crafts a legal case against WikiLeaks'
   Julian Assange for the publication of thousands of secret government
   cables, legal experts are warning that any indictment under the Espionage
   Act may also implicate the news media -- and Americans who've read the
   cables or shared them with their friends.

   The World War I-era law is broadly written and criminalizes anyone who
   possesses or transmits any "information relating to the national defense"
   which an individual has "reason to believe could be used to the injury of
   the United States or to the advantage of any foreign nation."

   If WikiLeaks, which allegedly did not steal the documents, is guilty of
   espionage for printing them, so too might be the New York Times, U.K.'s
   The Guardian, and Germany's Der Spiegel, which have replicated and
   disseminated the materials worldwide, some experts say.

   Individual users of Twitter and Facebook and other social media who spread
   links to the documents far and wide, or even discussed the contents in
   public, could also technically be liable.

   "One of the flaws in the Espionage Act is that it draws no distinction
   between the leaker or the spy and the recipient of the information, no
   matter how far downstream the recipient is," said American University law
   professor Stephen Vladeck, an expert in national security law.

   "There's no difference in the statute between Assange and someone at home
   who opens up something that Assange has posted on his website knowing that
   it's classified," he said.

   The sweeping and vague nature of the law may explain why the federal
   government recently warned all employees not to read WikiLeaks' cables or
   any news reports pertaining to them because the information is still
   classified.

   Several universities around the country have also warned students who
   might seek careers with the federal government not to post links to
   WikiLeaks content or discuss the cables publicly through social media.

   " [The Espionage Act] criminalizes all casual discussions of such
   disclosures by persons not authorized to receive them to other persons not
   authorized to receive them... in other words, all tweets sending around
   those countless news stories, all blogging on them, and all dinner party
   conversations about their contents," wrote Benjamin Wittes, a legal
   analyst with the Brookings Institution, on the blog LawFare.

   "Taken at its word, the Espionage Act makes felons of us all," he said.

  Feds Weigh Approaches to Charging Assange

   Vladeck said the complexity of the situation may explain why the U.S.
   government and Attorney General Eric Holder have not yet charged Assange
   with a crime.

   Still, Jennifer Robinson, one of Assange's attorneys, told ABC News last
   week that she's hearing an indictment under the Espionage Act could be
   imminent.

   "Our position of course is that we don't believe it applies to Mr. Assange
   and that in any event he's entitled to First Amendment protection as
   publisher of Wikileaks and any prosecution under the Espionage Act would
   in my view be unconstitutional and puts at risk all media organizations in
   the U.S.," Robinson said.

   Only once in the history of the Espionage Act has the U.S. government
   brought a case against someone other than the thief of secret information.
   That prosecution failed, Vladeck said.

   But Holder cautioned reporters last week that the Espionage Act isn't the
   only law under which the Justice Department might charge Assange.

   "I don't want to get into specifics here, but people would have a
   misimpression if the only statute you think that we are looking at is the
   Espionage Act," he said. "That is certainly something that might play a
   role, but there are other statutes, other tools that we have at our
   disposal."

   Experts say Assange could also be charged with trafficking in stolen
   government property or conspiracy, if investigators can demonstrate a link
   between Assange and the alleged source of the leak, Army Private Bradley
   Manning.

   Manning, who is believed to have stolen the documents in his role as a
   military intelligence analyst, is being held in a U.S. military prison in
   Quantico, Va. He likely faces charges for espionage.

   As for liability of the news media, a recent report from the Congressional
   Research Service suggests there may be sufficient legal precedent to keep
   them off the hook.

   "Leaks of classified information to the press have only rarely been
   punished as crimes, and we are aware of no case in which a publisher of
   information obtained through unauthorized disclosure by a government
   employee has been prosecuted for publishing it," the report reads.

   "There may be First Amendment implications that would make such a
   prosecution difficult, not to mention political ramifications based on
   concerns about government censorship."

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-15 17:40:26</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 03:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1084229_espionage-act-presents-challenges-for-wikileaks-indictment-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1086790</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION - New EU Commission
</title>
    <description>   I don't want to play down the appointment of German guy but I am still
   skeptical as to the extent to which the energy commissioner can push the
   EU toward an cohesive energy policy.
   &gt;From the Lisbon Treaty:
   Art. 194. Such measures shall not affect a Member State's right to
   determine the conditions for exploiting its energy resources, its choice
   between different energy sources and the general structure of its energy
   supply, without prejudice to Article 192(2)(c).

   Art. 192(2)(c) Also refers to another article, which stipulates that no
   Member State can violate EU's energy policy's general objectives. Sounds
   cool. If this happens,  measures significantly affecting a Member State's
   choice between different energy sources and the general structure of its
   energy supply   can only be adopted (HOWEVER) by the Council acting
   UNANIMOUSLY, which means that every country has the right to veto.

   Marko Papic wrote:

     Resending

     ----- Original Message -----
     From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "analysts" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Saturday, November 28, 2009 11:00:04 AM GMT -06:00 Central America
     Subject: DISCUSSION - New EU Commission

     Ok, so the new EU Commission has been announced.

     What is the relevance of this EU Commission? Well for one, the Germans
     and the French have LOCKED DOWN the two key posts: internal market and
     energy!  How did they do this? By brilliant manuvering. They gave the
     Poles the EP Presidency, which Warsaw thought was uber important but is
     mainly ceremonial. That was the first key EU post and they gave it to
     the Poles first, who bought it like crazy. Then they got UK out of EU's
     internal business by giving London the FM post. This was not as "cheap"
     as the EP President, BUT it gave the post to a relative unknown Brit who
     is from Labor and now owes her relevancy completely to the EU.

     BRILLIANT.

     Here are the next steps:

       * 11-19 Jan. 2010: Hearings with the newly-nominated commissioners
         in the European Parliament.
       * 26 Jan. 2010: Final vote of the European Parliament on the full
         Commission (9.00-11.00 debate in plenary; 11.00-12.00 political
         group meetings; 12.00-13.00 vote in plenary). 
       * 1 Feb. 2010: New Commission expected to take office.
     Entire line up (my comments in orange):

     The appointments in full:

       * Jose Manuel Barroso (Portugal): President With Van Rompuy as EU
         President, Barroso still retains power. Imagine if Blair was EU
         President. It would be Barroso who?
       * Joaquin Almunia (Spain): Competition  According to EU sources, he is
         loyal to Barroso (makes sense, they are Iberian). He is also a bad
         ass. Expect him to take member states to court if he deems they are
         being protectionist. Will piss off Berlin and Paris for sure.
       * Catherine Ashton (UK): Foreign Affairs High Representative As I
         said, this was a great choice for Berlin and Paris. They get UK off
         of their hands with a post that will not let UK meddle in EU
         internal affairs.
       * Michel Barnier (France): Internal Market and Services BOOM. This
         shows how RETARDED Brown is. He installed a relative unknown who may
         go "native" into the FM post and gave up the internal market and
         services to the FRENCH!!! The City of London is PISSED.
       * Olli Rehn (Finland): Economic and Monetary Affairs Former
         Enlargement guy gets this post, also loyal to Barroso, will
         undoubtedly piss off Berlin and Paris.
       * Dacian Ciolos (Romania): Agriculture
       * John Dalli (Malta): Health and Consumer Policy Wow... granted, the
         Maltese are super health conscious, so if you're Monsanto or
         Sagenta, you are NOT happy.
       * Karel De Gucht (Belgium): Trade
       * Stefan Fu:le (Czech Republic): Enlargement This was something that
         was discussed. A new member state gets the enlargement portfolio.
         Nice compromise here as well, since Prague is not as crazy about
         Ukraine/Georgia
       * Connie Hedegaard (Denmark): Climate Action Denmark gets climate
         action, poignant.
       * Maire Geoghegan-Quinn (Ireland): Research and Innovation
       * Janusz Lewandowski (Poland): Budget/Financial Programming
       * Guenther Oettinger (Germany): Energy HUUUUUGE... Germany gets a key
         post and screws Central Europeans completely
       * Janez Potocnik (Slovenia): Environment Slovenians got on the whole
         "green" bandwaggon first, so this is cute.
       * Neelie Kroes (Netherlands): Digital Agenda
       * Laszlo Andor (Hungary): Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion Oh
         God... Hungarians in charge of employment...
       * Maria Damanaki (Greece): Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Makes sense.
       * Johannes Hahn (Austria): Regional Policy Tame choice.
       * Rumiana Jeleva (Bulgaria): International Cooperation, Humanitarian
         Aid and Crisis Response
       * Siim Kallas (Estonia): Transport
       * Cecilia Malmstro:m (Sweden): Home Affairs
       * Andris Piebalgs (Latvia): Development
       * Viviane Reding (Luxembourg): Justice, Fundamental Rights and
         Citizenship
       * Algirdas Semeta (Lithuania): Taxation and Customs Union
       * Antonio Tajani (Italy): Industry and Entrepreneurship This is
         usually the DG that fights with all the free market DGs, so Italian
         running it is a key.
       * Androulla Vassiliou (Cyprus): Education, Culture, Multilingualism
         and Youth  
       * Maros Sefcovic (Slovakia): Interinstitutional Relations and
         Administration

 --
 C. Emre Dogru
 STRATFOR Intern
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 +1 512 226 3111
</description>
    <date>2009-11-30 18:24:47</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-24 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1086790_re-discussion-new-eu-commission-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1087227</id>
    <title>Re: [OS] GERMANY - Report says Bundeswehr lied during Kunduz strike
</title>
    <description>   This is getting bigger and bigger. I don't see this becoming a serious
   issue for Merkel. But this is NOT going to help in US-German relations.
   Note that this was an ISAF report, which I can only imagine was written by
   Americans.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "os" &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, December 23, 2009 7:49:00 AM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: [OS] GERMANY - Report says Bundeswehr lied during Kunduz strike

   Report says Bundeswehr lied during Kunduz strike

   Published: 23 Dec 09 10:02 CET
   Online: http://www.thelocal.de/national/20091223-24131.html

   The German military deliberately misled the American fighter pilots who
   carried out the Kunduz air strikes in which up to 142 Afghans, including
   many civilians, were killed, daily Frankfurter Rundschau reported
   Wednesday.

   Citing a confidential investigation report by the International Security
   Assistance Force (ISAF), the paper reported that Bundeswehr Colonel Georg
   Kleina**s communications officer falsely claimed the German troops had
   a**enemy contacta** to justify the September 4 strike.

   According to the report, the officer, codenamed "Red Baron 21," was acting
   on instructions from Col. Georg Klein, who ordered the deadly air strike.

   Red Baron 21 knowingly misled the flight control centre that was
   instructing the two F-15 fighters that carried out the attack, saying
   troops were in a**immediate dangera** in order a**to make it possible for
   the mission to go ahead,a** the ISAF report said, according to the
   Frankfurter Rundschau.

   But no such enemy contact had taken place. Under the ISAF rules, such an
   air strike can only go ahead if troops are under fire or immediately
   threatened. But at the time of the attack, the nearest German troops were
   nearly eight kilometres away in the Kunduz Bundeswehr field camp. If the
   report is correct, then the Germans breached the regulations.

   The victims of the air strike on two hijacked petrol tankers included many
   civilians, sparking a political maelstrom in Germany. Franz Josef Jung,
   who was Defence Minister at the time of the attack, was forced to resign
   along with Germanya**s top soldier Wolfgang Schneiderhahn and senior
   Defence Ministry bureaucrat Peter Wichert after it emerged the government
   had falsely claimed no civilians were killed in the attack.

   Now there is increasing pressure on Junga**s successor, Karl-Theodor zu
   Guttenberg, along with Chancellor Angela Merkel, to explain the
   information debacle that followed the attack. The lower house of the
   parliament or Bundestag, will begin an inquiry into the governmenta**s
   handling of the affair in January.

   The latest revelations will increase the stakes further.

   News magazine Der Spiegel recently reported that Col. Klein turned down
   the F-15 pilotsa** request to do a a**fly overa** of the two stranded
   tankers, giving the people on the ground time to flee.

   This fact, along with the alleged false claim that German troops had had
   contact with the Taliban, would mean Col. Klein breached ISAF protocols on
   air strikes

   http://www.thelocal.de/national/20091223-24131.html
</description>
    <date>2009-12-23 14:50:27</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-08 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1087227_re-os-germany-report-says-bundeswehr-lied-during-kunduz.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1087385</id>
    <title>LUGGAGE FOUND!!
</title>
    <description>   Godfather just called.... he "found" my luggage in CA..... don't want to
   know how or who died.....
   But it'll be in the States in a few days!
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-12-15 00:16:03</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1087385_luggage-found-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>hooper@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>nathan.hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ben.sledge@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>matt.gertken@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kristen.cooper@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kevin.stech@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>peter.zeihan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bayless.parsley@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ben.west@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alex.posey@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1089652</id>
    <title>RE: Text of Obama's speech
</title>
    <description>   This is not a fixable problem. 
    
   DHS is dysfunctional and broke.  FBI doesn't share information w/DHS.  
   CIA has one foot in the grave.  DIA is conspiring w/the FBI to bury the
   CIA.
    
   Foggy Bottom has always been broke. 
    
   Meanwhile, NYPD is infiltrating aQ. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Chris Stevenson
   Sent: Tuesday, January 05, 2010 7:00 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Text of Obama's speech

   http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2010/01/05/urgency-getting-right

   THE PRESIDENT:  Good afternoon, everybody.  I just concluded a meeting
   with members of my national security team, including those from our
   intelligence, homeland security and law enforcement agencies involved in
   the security reviews that I ordered after the failed attack on Christmas
   Day.
        
        I called these leaders to the White House because we face a challenge
   of the utmost urgency.  As we saw on Christmas, al Qaeda and its extremist
   allies will stop at nothing in their efforts to kill Americans.  And we
   are determined not only to thwart those plans, but to disrupt, dismantle
   and defeat their networks once and for all.  
        
        Indeed, over the past year, we've taken the fight to al Qaeda and its
   allies wherever they plot and train, be it in Afghanistan and Pakistan, in
   Yemen and Somalia, or in other countries around the world. 

   Here at home, our intelligence, homeland security and law enforcement
   agencies have worked together with considerable success:  gathering
   intelligence, stitching it together, and making arrests -- from Denver to
   Texas, from Illinois to New York -- disrupting plots and saving American
   lives.  And these successes have not come without a price, as we saw last
   week in the loss of our courageous CIA officers in Afghanistan.
     
        But when a suspected terrorist is able to board a plane with
   explosives on Christmas Day the system has failed in a potentially
   disastrous way.  And it's my responsibility to find out why, and to
   correct that failure so that we can prevent such attacks in the future.

        And that's why, shortly after the attempted bombing over Detroit, I
   ordered two reviews.  I directed Secretary of Homeland Security Janet
   Napolitano to review aviation screening, technology and procedures.  She
   briefed me on her initial findings today, and I'm pleased that this review
   is drawing on the best science and technology, including the expertise of
   Secretary of Energy Steven Chu and his department. 
         
        I also directed my counterterrorism and homeland security advisor
   John Brennan to lead a thorough review into our terrorist watch-listing
   system so we can fix what went wrong.  As we discussed today, this ongoing
   review continues to reveal more about the human and systemic failures that
   almost cost nearly 300 lives.  We will make a summary of this preliminary
   report public within the next few days, but let me share some of what we
   know so far.

        As I described over the weekend, elements of our intelligence
   community knew that Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab had traveled to Yemen and
   joined up with extremists there.  It now turns out that our intelligence
   community knew of other red flags -- that al Qaeda in the Arabian
   Peninsula sought to strike not only American targets in Yemen, but the
   United States itself.  And we had information that this group was working
   with an individual who was known -- who we now know was in fact the
   individual involved in the Christmas attack.

        The bottom line is this:  The U.S. government had sufficient
   information to have uncovered this plot and potentially disrupt the
   Christmas Day attack.  But our intelligence community failed to connect
   those dots, which would have placed the suspect on the "no fly" list.
   In other words, this was not a failure to collect intelligence; it was a
   failure to integrate and understand the intelligence that we already had. 
   The information was there.  Agencies and analysts who needed it had access
   to it.  And our professionals were trained to look for it and to bring it
   all together. 

        Now, I will accept that intelligence, by its nature, is imperfect,
   but it is increasingly clear that intelligence was not fully analyzed or
   fully leveraged.  That's not acceptable, and I will not tolerate it.  Time
   and again, we've learned that quickly piecing together information and
   taking swift action is critical to staying one step ahead of a nimble
   adversary.

        So we have to do better -- and we will do better.  And we have to do
   it quickly.  American lives are on the line.  So I made it clear today to
   my team:  I want our initial reviews completed this week.  I want specific
   recommendations for corrective actions to fix what went wrong.  I want
   those reforms implemented immediately, so that this doesn't happen again
   and so we can prevent future attacks.  And I know that every member of my
   team that I met with today understands the urgency of getting this right. 
   And I appreciate that each of them took responsibility for the shortfalls
   within their own agencies.

        Immediately after the attack, I ordered concrete steps to protect the
   American people:  new screening and security for all flights, domestic and
   international; more explosive detection teams at airports; more air
   marshals on flights; and deepening cooperation with international
   partners.
   In recent days, we've taken additional steps to improve security. 
   Counterterrorism officials have reviewed and updated our terrorist watch
   list system, including adding more individuals to the "no fly" list.  And
   while our review has found that our watch-listing system is not broken,
   the failure to add Abdulmutallab to the "no fly" list shows that this
   system needs to be strengthened.  

        The State Department is now requiring embassies and consulates to
   include current visa information in their warning on individuals with
   terrorist or suspected terrorist connections.  As of yesterday, the
   Transportation Security Administration, or TSA, is requiring enhanced
   screening for passengers flying into the United States from, or flying
   through, nations on our list of state sponsors of terrorism, or other
   countries of interest.  And in the days ahead, I will announce further
   steps to disrupt attacks, including better integration of information and
   enhanced passenger screening for air travel.

        Finally, some have suggested that the events on Christmas Day should
   cause us to revisit the decision to close the prison at Guantanamo Bay. 
   So let me be clear.  It was always our intent to transfer detainees to
   other countries only under conditions that provide assurances that our
   security is being protected. 

        With respect to Yemen in particular, there's an ongoing security
   situation which we have been confronting for some time, along with our
   Yemeni partner.  Given the unsettled situation, I've spoken to the
   Attorney General and we've agreed that we will not be transferring
   additional detainees back to Yemen at this time.

        But make no mistake:  We will close Guantanamo prison, which has
   damaged our national security interests and become a tremendous recruiting
   tool for al Qaeda.  In fact, that was an explicit rationale for the
   formation of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.  And, as I've always said,
   we will do so -- we will close the prison in a manner that keeps the
   American people safe and secure. 

   Our reviews -- and the steps that we've taken and will continue to take --
   go to the heart of the kind of intelligence and homeland security we need
   in the 21st century.  Just as al Qaeda and its allies are constantly
   evolving and adapting their efforts to strike us, we have to constantly
   adapt and evolve to defeat them, because as we saw on Christmas, the
   margin for error is slim and the consequences of failure can be
   catastrophic.

        As these violent extremists pursue new havens, we intend to target al
   Qaeda wherever they take root, forging new partnerships to deny them
   sanctuary, as we are doing currently with the government in Yemen.  As our
   adversaries seek new recruits, we'll constantly review and rapidly update
   our intelligence and our institutions.  As they refine our tactics, we'll
   enhance our defenses, including smarter screening and security at
   airports, and investing in the technologies that might have detected the
   kind of explosives used on Christmas.
     
        In short, we need our intelligence, homeland security and law
   enforcement systems -- and the people in them -- to be accountable and to
   work as intended:  collecting, sharing, integrating, analyzing, and acting
   on intelligence as quickly and effectively as possible to save innocent
   lives -- not just most of the time, but all the time.  That's what the
   American people deserve.  As President, that's exactly what I will
   demand. 

   Thank you very much.

   --
   Chris Stevenson
   ADP-CT
   Stratfor
   chris.stevenson@stratfor.com
   512-744-4077
</description>
    <date>2010-01-06 02:15:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-21 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1089652_re-text-of-obama-s-speech-.html</permalink>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1090102</id>
    <title>Re: ANALYSIS FOR COMMENT: Russian interior ministry cuts - 1
</title>
    <description>   Bring me a billionaire English lord. Thanks ;)

   Peter Zeihan wrote:

     bring us chocolate

     from switerland

     not kent

     kent food is naaaaaaaasty

     Lauren Goodrich wrote:

       I'm in Kent, suppose to head to Switzerland on Thurs......
       unless you need me home now-- which I really want to do-- so you
       should order me home!
       "Sorry, my boss has ordered me back to Austin"

       George Friedman wrote:

         hey, are you back from Switzerland yet?  Where are you now world
         traveler?

         Lauren Goodrich wrote:

           Its mainly bureaucracy.
           Mainly all the FSB guys who have cushy jobs there now

           Eugene Chausovsky wrote:

             The specifics of the cut have yet to be released - this is just
             a shorty update that confirms the insight from our previous
             piece on the Interior Ministry. I'm sure we will be addressing
             this more in-depth in the near future.

             Nate Hughes wrote:

               any idea where these cuts are being made? Across the board?
               Primarily in internal security and police troops? Trimming the
               bureaucracy? Some detail would help us understand the ways in
               which the interior ministry may be weakened. If it isn't known
               where, we should probably caveat that explicitly, maybe
               offering some perspective on options...

                 Russian President Dmitri Medvedev signed a presidential
                 decree Dec 24 which calls for a 20 percent reduction in the
                 personnel of the country's Interior Ministry by Jan 1, 2012.
                 The Interior Ministry has been subject to serious state
                 scrutiny over the past few months, particularly since the
                 death of Sergei Magnitsky, a Russian lawyer working for
                 London-based Hermitage Capital who died in prison due to
                 allegedly harsh conditions. The Interior Ministry controls
                 Russia's prison system, as well as the country's police
                 force and a powerful contingent of roughly 200,000 troops
                 (LINK).

                 Medvedev's recent announcement confirms previous STRATFOR
                 insight (LINK) that the Interior Ministry would be a prime
                 target in the Kremlin clan wars (LINK), which pits chief
                 Kremlin aid Vladislav Surkov and his clan of GRU and the
                 civiliki (a group of economic and legal technocrats) against
                 deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin and his FSB clan
                 consisting of siloviki (or strongmen). Surkov has long had
                 his sights set on the Interior Ministry, and FSB stronghold,
                 and this latest move indicates that he was successful in
                 persuading Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin that the
                 Interior Ministry required some serious purging. This
                 announcement shows that the clan wars are heating up, and
                 STRATFOR will continue to closely monitor the situation as
                 it unfolds.

           --
           Lauren Goodrich
           Director of Analysis
           Senior Eurasia Analyst
           STRATFOR
           T: 512.744.4311
           F: 512.744.4334
           lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
           www.stratfor.com

         --

         George Friedman

         Founder and CEO

         Stratfor

         700 Lavaca Street

         Suite 900

         Austin, Texas 78701

         Phone  512-744-4319

         Fax  512-744-4334

       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       STRATFOR
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

   --
   Karen Hooper
   Latin America Analyst
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-12-28 16:50:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1090102_re-analysis-for-comment-russian-interior-ministry-cuts-1-.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1092010</id>
    <title>BUDGET- Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks Survival
</title>
    <description>   Discussing the impact of Assange's arrest.

   600 words
   Will be out within a few minutes of our Tactical meeting.  Depends how
   long that runs. 
   Hopefully before the 9am Annual. 
   On 12/7/10 7:54 AM, scott stewart wrote:

     Let's do it.

      

     From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Sean Noonan
     Sent: Tuesday, December 07, 2010 8:49 AM
     To: Analyst List
     Subject: PROPOSAL- Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks Survival

      

     Title: Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks Survival

     Type: 3- When I woke up at 5, there was no one saying anything on this. 
     I haven't checked but I'm guessing we are still way ahead of in
     providing analysis of what Assange's arrest will do to him/the
     organization

     Thesis: Assange was arrested in Britain December 7.  WikiLeaks is a new
     organization with one leader that has not institutionalized.  Assange's
     arest will test its ability to maintain itself as an institution--but
     that won't stop the current set of documents. 

     600 words

     Current Discussion:

      

     London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and
     public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7.  He is due to
     appear in a court in Westminster soon to face charges of rape, accused
     by two woman in Sweden.  Charges of sexual assault rarely are passed
     through Interpol red notices, like this case, so this is no doubt about
     trying to disrupt WikiLeaks release of government documents.  While it's
     possible that Assange's arrest could disrupt the long-term viability of
     WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release of cables in the short-term and
     governments will now be concerned about what the organization may
     release in revenge.

      

     Leadership is extremely important in non-governmental organizations that
     have not institutionalized.  From terrorist grous  to charities [LINK:
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090923_death_top_indonesian_militant],
     these organizations often ebb and flow along with their founders. 
     WikiLeaks is a new organization that has a created a novel method for an
     old practice- leaking confidential government information in an attempt
     to influence politics.  Leaking will not go away with Assange's arrest,
     but WikiLeaks might.

      

     WikiLeaks created itself with Assange as the only public face-- he leads
     supports, drives donations, and faces criticism.  This has made many in
     the organization unhappy, and some have left it after disagreeing with
     him.  If Assange were to face charges in Sweden for sexual assault or
     new charges in the UK or US and was found guilty, WikiLeaks would still
     need someone to operate it.  Assange may have someone waiting in the
     wings, but that is not evident.

      

     WikiLeaks has also suffered logistically and as a brand.  As national
     governments put pressure on its infrastructure, its websites have been
     shut and most importantly its main source of funding- PayPal- has closed
     WikiLeaks account.  With such pressure and government monitoring, future
     leakers may be too afraid of getting intercepted and go elsewhere. 
     Moreover, this new set of documents have not worked out like Assange
     expected- the public is not angry at the State Department, but many are
     angry at Assange and his organization.

      

     Assange's arrest won't stop the continued leaks of this large batch of
     US State Department cables.  It also won't shut down WikiLeaks, which
     still maintains its website and the ability to collect information from
     leakers.  So in the short-term, WikiLeaks will maintain.  The question
     remains if it has created a truly sustainable institutions-- one where
     leaders are replacable, members can adapt to changing circumstance, and
     representatives can aid and inspire new leakers.

      

     If Asange is extradited to Sweden and tried of one count of unlawful
     coercion, two counts of sexual molestation and one count of rape, will
     he be able to maintain WikiLeaks image?  That is hard to say, but
     growing public criticism of him indicates his inability to grow
     WikiLeaks support base.  Western govrenments also fear whatever is
     contained in his ___ file, for which he threatens to release an
     encryption key if something happens to him.  WikiLeaks has already
     released its most damaging documents-- its attempt to get public
     attention-- and they haven't amounted to much.  This new file likely
     contains no more damaging information, but instead is full of names. 
     The names of sources who will be at risk and those of diplomats,
     military or intelligence officers who could lose their jobs.

      

     WikiLeaks is now facing a conundrum that all new organizations do--the
     ability to maintain and transition leadership through adverse
     circumstances.  Maybe Assange will be released quickly-- STRATFOR cannot
     speak to the veracity of the charges against him-- but if he isn't,
     WikiLeaks will struggle to survive.

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 15:06:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1092010_budget-assange-arrest-and-wikileaks-survival-.html</permalink>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1092275</id>
    <title>[alpha] OBL
</title>
    <description>We told the Pakis after we killed him.  But, will praise GOP publicly.  All spin and bullshit.


Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2011-05-02 05:33:15</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1092275_-alpha-obl-.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1092740</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - BRAZIL - defense matters
</title>
    <description>   Summary of meetings at the Scoala de Guerra in Rio with a Brazilian Major
   General and Air Force commander. Have a very good relationship with one
   general in particular for future questions on Brazilian defense
   The biggest priority for the Brazilian military right now is
   modernization. A military is like a dog you keep in your backyard. Our dog
   has gotten really old, it's losing a lot of teeth, even going blind in one
   eye. We don't need a Rottweiller, per se, but we do need a good guard dog,
   just to let everyone know 'we're here.'  For example, we really don't like
   the idea of the U.S. Fourth Fleet coming near the Pre-Salt fields.
   One of the biggest changes we've been adjusting to over the past few years
   is a change in the chain of military command to include a larger civilian
   role. The creation of ministry of defense was an important aspect of this.
   Now we have more of a discussion between government and military on major
   issues. Civil-mil relations are healthy now. It took time since the
   military dictatorship only ended in 1985, but Brazilians understand now
   that defense is not just for the military, it's for the nation. I would
   say that trust has been rebuilt only very recently. We were a bit
   concerned over how Dilma (former guerrilla) would act with the military,
   but she was very careful in her inauguration speech (i'm forgetting the
   exact line now -- but something about how she would not hold resentment
   against the military, which came as a big sigh of relief)
   We have a problem in developing a military industrial complex (we really
   dont have one right now) -- our own military is our worst customer. 
   When we want to develop something and export it, the government will first
   ask, well, how many of those do we have first?  typically, we would have
   0, and there was always an issue of money. We were never used to having a
   real defense budget.  So the miltary has found a way to 'lease' certain
   military equipment to the different branches of the armed forces so Brazil
   can say they have X many, so we can export Y many. 
   Brazil's defense mentality is all about deterrence. We are not looking for
   wars, but we want to build own defenses. (this is something that is really
   stressed a lot - brazil has absolute zero interest in conflict - they want
   peace with all their neighbors, etc - sounds a lot like turkey)
   Yes there is a rivalry with Argentina, but we have an accommodation. We
   don't have a war posture toward Argentina -- in fact, Brazil wants the
   Argentina economy to recover so Mercosur can work [note -- this is along
   the same lines of what Ambassador Azambuja described to me.] I have really
   strong relationships with all my Argentine defense counterparts.. the
   biggest deference I see between us and them is that their morale is really
   down.  Brazil is different -- our military-civil transition was the
   smoothest in the region if you compare it to Argentina and Chile. 
   Our Amazon strategy is all about territorial sovereignty. This is a
   growing focus of Brazilian defense priorities. the problem traces back to
   the 1850s, but even if you look really recently, there was a book written
   in the 1980s (forget the name)  - that discussed the internationalization
   of the Amazon. This book really freaked Brazil out. Brazil is seriously
   concerned about all the foreign players in Amazon, NGOs, American biotech
   companies etc. operating there under the impression that the Amazon falls
   under this genre of international 'public goods'.  The Amazon belongs to
   Brazil. We are blessed with resources, (as Azumbaja said, we are a
   freshwater superpower.) There is a sort of conspiracy that is seriously
   framing the mindset of the government and military that believes an
   outside force could begin a secessionist movement with the Indians in the
   Amazon and threaten Brazil's territorial sovereignty.
   So, Brazil is building up defenses and is setting up double perimeter in
   Amazon -- 3 battalions deployed to the Amazon so far. Before we had no
   means of patrolling those borders, but now we do have water, air and land
   patrols to interdict smugglers and prevent FARC from crossing over and
   buying food and supplies as they would do regularly in the past.  
   Jet fighter deal
   We are frustrated. The longer they wait to decide, the more they are
   putting the country at risk. - Lula should have announced it. Right now we
   are having to lease old Mirages from the Israelis. This needs to move
   forward.
   Brazil doesn't want to have a diverse set of military suppliers -- it's a
   logistical nightmare
   The French option makes sense and we are leaning heavily toward the
   Rafales for strategic reasons.
   Tech transfer is crucial in this deal.
   We are tired of this 'old lady from Idaho' problem with the US Congress.
    Some old lady in Idaho sees on TV how we are fighting favelas and crime
   in Rio and someone writes to their congressman and says don't give brazil
   those fighter jets.  We're sick of these restrictions.
   Boeing has tried to sweeten the deal by saying they will give  'adquate
   tech sharing,' whatever that means. Brazil doesn't want to deal with those
   restricitons anymore.  We had a huge problem dealing with the Tucano
   aircraft - We wanted to sell these Tucanos to VZ, but then US said we
   can't.  So then what happens?  VZ buys from Russia. That's very
   frustrating for us. Then the US makes a big deal about Russian arms sales
   in South America. Well, the US is facilitating those sales.
   There is a complete consensus that Brazil is going to move forward with
   the nuclear submarine strategy. Again, it's based on deterrence - to say
   'we have it.'
   Dilma always asks - what is the cascade effect for the jet fighters,
   nuclear submarines?
   she'll only approve these initiatives if they will produce jobs, and they
   will.
   The military is also very involved in development projects that the
   government really cares about, which helps build trust - Dilma has kept
   all continuity with the Brazilian defense appointments, and this is good
   for us. 
   Chile is arming itself, VZ is arming itself, Brazil feels the pressure.
   not we don't see this as an urgent arms race. We do need to get moving,
   though.
   Most of Brazil's attention is on Paraguay -- we need political stability
   and stability over the Itaipu arrangements -  we send reminders, but dont
   want to interfere directly in neighbors' affairs
   from journalist - Brazil doesn't have an official definition of
   'terrorism'  Instead, it's referred to as drug trafficking. Reason is
   Brazil doesn't want to give any impression or make itself a target for
   terrorists. THis was expressed in the Wikileaks.
   (rest of these notes are included with more context in the favela insight
   i sent out a couple days ago)
   Army should be in reserve role for favela crackdown, but police not yet
   reliable, trained, etc.
   Rocinha next likely target -- favelas in west sector of Rio where all the
   construction is happening for the games
   Govt is building trust, but needs to act fast, prevent the drug groups
   from aligning and going on offensive - twisting the arm of the state
   problem is with the games coming up, not enough time - can[t have
   crackdowns on tv - major dilemma for the government
</description>
    <date>2011-01-05 13:00:37</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-26 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1092740_insight-brazil-defense-matters-.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1092847</id>
    <title>=?Windows-1252?B?UmU6IERJU0NVU1NJT04gLSBUVVJLRVkvQ1QgLSBIZXpib2xsYWgsIFBLSywgR3VsZW4gYW5kIEFLUJJzIG5ldyBLdXJkaXNoIFN0cmF0ZWd5?=
</title>
    <description>   This can become a good piece because it intersects a number of Turkey
   trends we are following, I.e., Elections, Kurdish separatism, and the AKP
   v Secularist struggle. You have the material here. So it shouldn't take
   too much time. But for the purposes of a proposal you need to zoom out of
   the details and provide a simple and clear thesis of what it is that this
   piece is going to be about and its significance.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Emre Dogru &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 7 Jan 2011 07:12:16 -0600 (CST)
   To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: DISCUSSION - TURKEY/CT - Hezbollah, PKK, Gulen and AKPa**s new
   Kurdish Strategy
   I'm willing to transform this discussion into a piece but not sure if it
   is too local and/or a delicate issue. Thoughts would be much appreciated.

   Top-brass militants of Turkish Hezbollah have been released two days ago -
   after staying 10 years in prison a** as a result of a law in Turkish penal
   code that the Turkish government recently changed. Ia**m not going to talk
   about the details of the new law, but briefly their cases will continue
   while they are outside of prison. This may not be a law that is
   specifically about Hezbollah, but it is clearly Hezbollah that benefits
   the most from it. And not surprisingly, Ergenekon culprits the least.

   Why does Hezbollah matter? We need to look deeper into its history to
   understand this. First, what I would prefer to call as the first period of
   Hezbollah.

   Hezbollah was active in 1980s and especially in 1990s, and especially in
   fight against PKK in Southeastern Turkey. Turkish Hezbollah and PKK are
   the two main rivals there, with Hezbollah being very Islamist and PKK a**
   still a** quite secularist. This struggle, of course, was in Turkish
   Statea**s very interest and today there is no doubt that Hezbollah gained
   a lot of power in late 1990s with Turkish a**deepa** statea**s support to
   counterweight PKK. However, it became much more powerful than the Turkish
   State expected. In 2000, Turkish special forces made operations against
   the group and killed its leader Velioglu. Turkish media revealed how
   Hezbollah killed and tortured people (its rivals, moderate Islamists and
   even its own members), and buried them in the backyard of their
   cell-houses. In revenge, Hezbollah killed police chief of the main Kurdish
   province Diyarbakir. (As a side note, my Kurdish source from Diyarbakir
   told me that this police chief interrogated leader of Hezbollaha**s armed
   wing and learned every detail about Hezbollaha**s ties to the State. Then
   he came out and said he was the black box of the Turkish state. He was
   killed that week in the downtown of Diyarbakir. So, ita**s very likely
   that the State supported his killing by Hezbollah).

   Second period started in 2000. Hezbollaha**s leader was killed and all
   top-brass was jailed. Hezbollah renounced armed struggle, and founded many
   newspapers, websites, and associations instead. It became more civilized
   and expanded its civil network. It has been working as a civil society
   organization in the region with activities very much in parallel with
   PKKa**s civilian organization. Today, its members and sympathizers are
   estimated to be around hundreds of thousands of people. It should be kept
   in mind that even though they tried to be a national - Islamist group,
   they were unable to spread beyond Kurdish areas.

   Now, we are about to see the third period of Hezbollah. Release of
   top-brass Hezbollah is going to revitalize the group. But of course one
   question remain: why now?

   There are three main movements/bloc that claim they have right and power
   to get involved in the Kurdish issue. First, Hezbollah/Mazlum-Der (its
   civil society organization). Second, PKK/DTK (civil organization)/BDP
   (political party). Third, Gulen movement. Erdogan is on top of these three
   movements and makes sure that they constantly balance each other off. He
   plays them against each other and does not allow any of them to gain
   enough power to challenge his government. This strategy allows Erdogan to
   buy time, without getting really involved in thorny issues. Never forget
   that the Kurdish issue is the biggest problem of the Turkish Republic and
   how politically risky it is. Erdogan will settle the Kurdish issue when he
   becomes president, not now. For now, he needs time. Hence, balance of
   power between these groups.

   &gt;From this background information, the pattern shows us that Erdogan is
   now pushing Hezbollah against the other two. Why? Because there is only
   six months left before the parliamentary elections and PKK/DTK/BDP bloc is
   currently dominating the political debate about the Kurdish issue. They
   successfully opened the discussion on bi-lungualism, behaved very
   cautiously not to provoke anyone and dominated the issue over the past few
   weeks. Ia**m sure they also created rifts within the AKP and the State as
   to how to deal with them. As an example, Gul seems to have a rhetoric that
   is closer to PKK than Erdogan. Moreover, it is important that PKK does not
   attack for the moment. This gives a momentum to its popular base. Overall,
   things are going well for PKK bloc.

   But, something much more important happened three weeks ago, that could
   seriously challenge Erdogana**s game plans. For the first time, PKKa**s
   leader Ocalan offered cooperation to Gulen movement with a message from
   his prison. If you think how PKK is strong in the region and prevented
   almost all activities of the Gulen movement, this becomes really
   game-changing. The two blocs, PKK and Gulen have remained silent since
   then but there is no reason to rule out the possibility that they have
   been holding back-channel talks. Imagine what would a cooperation between
   the two main blocs mean to the AKP. Erdogan could not tolerate such a
   possibility. My guess is that Erdogan told this to his unofficial
   chief-of-staff Mucahit Arslan, who is the closest to Hezbollah bloc in
   AKP, to organize this push. My sources who travel with Erdogan's
   delegation abroad told me that Arslan is the king of Erdogan's delegation,
   in charge of everything and everyone.

   Now, reports say that Hezbollah is mulling how to participate 2011
   elections. They may participate as independent candidates or support a
   political party. It is not important whether they will support AKP, which
   I see unlikely. But there is no question that they will strongly counter
   PKK in the Kurdish regions, which is in AKPa**s best interest.

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-01-07 14:27:27</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1092847_-windows-1252-b.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1094236</id>
    <title>Re: Insight - CIA Killings ** pls do not forward **
</title>
    <description>   leaving the middle and upper management in the hands of people trained in
   the 1990s--a very different world and very different training missions.

   That really seems to me as an intrinsic problem... not just for the
   intelligence community, but also for the State, the military, etc.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "George Friedman" &lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: friedman@att.blackberry.net
   Sent: Monday, January 4, 2010 8:45:44 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re: Insight - CIA Killings ** pls do not forward **

   There is a good and a bad reason for doing this.  The bad reason is that
   you either don't understand the difference or you don't have enough
   trained staff.  That's DIA's problem--both of them.

   But there is no inherent reason why an analyst can't learn the operators
   craft and vice versa.  Granted there are profound issues of personality
   type, but there are those who can bridge that.  However, to bridge that
   requires time, training, mentoring and maturing.  It also requires time in
   both roles for the person to learn where analysis stops and operations. 
   And it requires training by people who understand and accept both sides.

   This is very hard to do in a war where many of the senior people have
   left.  Over the past ten years a stunning number of people in the IC have
   retired, leaving the middle and upper management in the hands of people
   trained in the 1990s--a very different world and very different training
   missions. Their numbers and skill are missing and limits their mentoring
   ability.  People are happy if they get baseline capable analysts and
   operators, let alone cross-breeding them.

   Reva Bhalla wrote:

     i had heard a while back how in Iraq especially they would allow a lot
     more analysts in DIA and other agencies to interact more directly with
     sources... sounds like a trend that grew out of limited resources
     On Jan 4, 2010, at 8:34 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

       The spooks told me tonight that DOD have lost 350 soldiers in similar
       events but it has never made the press. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On
       Behalf Of George Friedman
       Sent: Monday, January 04, 2010 8:31 PM
       To: Analysts
       Subject: Re: Insight - CIA Killings ** pls do not forward **
       At the age of 25 or so an analyst or an ops officer are about equally
       skilled in the field. The training prepares you to start learning. The
       problem is that they haven't got enough experience out there. Twenty
       years in do as opposed to di makes a big difference. In my view
       getting trained at the farm and spending a year in camaroon prepares
       you for squat. The problem isn't the directorate but that both
       directirates have kids playing way abobe their pay grade.
       Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
       Date: Mon, 4 Jan 2010 20:28:29 -0600
       To: 'Analyst List'&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
       Subject: RE: Insight - CIA Killings ** pls do not forward **
       An OPS officer is in the field from the DO, the clandestine service. 
       He/she  is specifically trained in HUMINT collection, asset
       development and asset operation.  They run the assets and work out the
       commo bwt the source and OPS officer.  Ops officers are also called
       case officers.   
        
       An analyst (the DI) reads the reports collected by the OPS officer and
       very rarely meets w/a HUMINT source, unless its an intelligence
       liaison source.  
        
       Training and skillset are apples and oranges. 
        
        

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On
       Behalf Of Sean Noonan
       Sent: Monday, January 04, 2010 8:18 PM
       To: Analyst List
       Subject: Re: Insight - CIA Killings ** pls do not forward **
       Fred, can you clarify what exactly a "analyst vice clandestine
       operational officer" position is?  

       Fred Burton wrote:

         Fiasco
          
         When balls are dropped in this business, they are usually fatal. 
          
         The call from an operational asset for an emergency meeting should
         have sent off the alarm bells. 
          
         The only rational explanation is the call went to the Jordanian GID
         handler first, than the Jordanian spook caused the CIA meeting. 
         Very Arab like.    (lesson learned:  Never, ever let an operational
         asset control the meeting site, especially in Injun Country.) 
          
         Obviously, the double agent told his terrorist handlers that he
         would not be checked for bombs or weapons.  This operation has been
         in the works for a long time. 
          
         My hats off to aQ.  Job well done. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On
         Behalf Of Reva Bhalla
         Sent: Monday, January 04, 2010 8:04 PM
         To: Analyst List
         Subject: Re: Insight - CIA Killings ** pls do not forward ** 
         wow, there are all kinds of lessons built into this
         On Jan 4, 2010, at 8:02 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

           Politics and CIA political correctness. 
            
           Since 9-11, analysts (like John Brennan, who was COS Riyadh w/zero
           ops training) are placed in operational management jobs.   
            
           This analyst believed their source.  First mistake in agent
           handling.  Source was running the analyst.  Lesson learned. 
            
           Inexperience field personnel pushed out due to the scope of duties
           that surpass CIA's bandwidth. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On
           Behalf Of Reva Bhalla
           Sent: Monday, January 04, 2010 7:58 PM
           To: Analyst List
           Subject: Re: Insight - CIA Killings ** pls do not forward ** 
           why was an analyst handling the source?
           On Jan 4, 2010, at 7:56 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

             ** Note  -- This cannot be sourced to the CIA.  Pls do not
             forward **
              
             According to a CIA source, there are several factors that caused
             the catastrophic incident.  Preliminary assessment follows: 
              
             1) Inexperienced analyst vice clandestine operational officer
             brought the asset into the secure setting. 
              
             2) The gathering of approx. 13 CIA staff should never have
             occurred.  
              
             3) Failure to screen the source for weapons or bombs.  Asset
             handling 101.
              
             4) COS Amman and COS Afghanistan have been recalled for
             "consultations."
              
             5) Jordanian spooks arrived Langley today. 
              
              
              
              
              
              
              
              

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Research Intern
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
    

   --

   George Friedman

   Founder and CEO

   Stratfor

   700 Lavaca Street

   Suite 900

   Austin, Texas 78701

   Phone  512-744-4319

   Fax  512-744-4334
</description>
    <date>2010-01-05 03:48:06</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-07-29 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1094236_re-insight-cia-killings-pls-do-not-forward-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1094301</id>
    <title>[alpha] Killed by Ground Branch
</title>
    <description>CIA 
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2011-05-02 05:12:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1094301_-alpha-killed-by-ground-branch-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1094322</id>
    <title>[alpha] OBL
</title>
    <description>Reportedly, we took the body with us.  Thank goodness.

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2011-05-02 05:26:15</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1094322_-alpha-obl-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1094536</id>
    <title>Re: OBL's corpse
</title>
    <description>   Bogus pics and bogus news stories of burials at sea.

   Makes the US look dodgy and encourages distrust that the whole thing is
   real...., conspiracy, CIA, Illuminati, etc.

   Wonder if it's just a confluence of events or just a consequence of the
   internet and the loonies it brings out.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: analysts@stratfor.com
   Sent: Monday, 2 May, 2011 7:26:06 PM
   Subject: OBL's corpse

   If body dumped at sea, which I doubt, the touch is very Adolph Eichman
   like.  The Tribe did the same thing with the Nazi's ashes. 

   We would want to photograph, DNA, fingerprint, etc. 

   His body is a crime scene and I don't see the FBI nor DOJ letting that
   happen. 

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 186 0122 5004
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-05-02 13:35:44</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 17:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1094536_re-obl-s-corpse-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1095521</id>
    <title>Re: Thoughts on Der Spiegel?
</title>
    <description>The German services are also hampered by Constitutional issues (they
just can't get that Nazi thing out of mind) which prohibits what kind of
person can be surveilled.

Marko Papic wrote:
&gt; To answer Reva's question, this is certainly something that could be
&gt; assumed. Mossad and German intelligence have grown close over the years,
&gt; especially following the fiasco in Munich. On the other hand, Der
&gt; Spiegel usually does very good in depth analyses and investigative work.
&gt; Best at that in Germany. In that way, it has a very good tradition of
&gt; investigative journalism similar to the Guardian (although it is a
&gt; weekly, not a daily like the Guardian).
&gt; 
&gt; Kamran Bokhari wrote:
&gt;&gt; If you are going by what defectors tell you then it is also reasonable to
&gt;&gt; assume that the Iranians have moved things around since the defections. 
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt;&gt; From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
&gt;&gt; On Behalf Of Fred Burton
&gt;&gt; Sent: January-25-10 1:43 PM
&gt;&gt; To: Analyst List
&gt;&gt; Subject: Re: Thoughts on Der Spiegel?
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Western experts believe that this center developed into a
&gt;&gt; sub-organization of the Defense Ministry known as the FEDAT, an acronym
&gt;&gt; for the "Department for Expanded High-Technology Applications" -- the
&gt;&gt; secret heart of Iran's nuclear weapons program. The head of that
&gt;&gt; organization is Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, 48, an officer in the Revolutionary
&gt;&gt; Guard and a professor at Tehran's Imam Hossein University.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; ** This kind of granularity is critical.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Reva Bhalla wrote:
&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt; Any thoughts on Der Spiegel as an outlet for Mossad or any other
&gt;&gt;&gt; intelligence agencies?  Have we seen examples of this in the past?  They
&gt;&gt;&gt; have some insane detail here (read the second half) where they claim
&gt;&gt;&gt; they've got all this access to a classified doc on Iran's nuclear
&gt;&gt;&gt; weapons program
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;           01/25/2010
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;  
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;   The Secret Nuclear Dossier
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;     Intelligence from Tehran Elevates Concern in the West
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; By Dieter Bednarz, Erich Follath and Holger Stark
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; *The West has long been suspicous of Iran's nuclear program. SPIEGEL has
&gt;&gt;&gt; obtained new documents on secret tests and leadership structures that
&gt;&gt;&gt; call into question Tehran's claims to be exclusively interested in the
&gt;&gt;&gt; peaceful use of the technology.*
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; It was probably the last attempt to defuse the nuclear dispute with
&gt;&gt;&gt; Tehran without having to turn to dramatic new sanctions or military
&gt;&gt;&gt; action. The plan, devised at the White House in October, had Russian and
&gt;&gt;&gt; Chinese support and came with the seal of approval of the US president.
&gt;&gt;&gt; It was clearly a Barack Obama operation.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Under the plan, Iran would send a large share of its low enriched
&gt;&gt;&gt; uranium abroad, all at once, for a period of one year, receiving
&gt;&gt;&gt; internationally monitored quantities of nuclear fuel elements in return.
&gt;&gt;&gt; It was a deal that provided benefits for all sides. The Iranians would
&gt;&gt;&gt; have enough material for what they claim is their civilian nuclear
&gt;&gt;&gt; program, as well as for scientific experiments, and the world could be
&gt;&gt;&gt; assured that Tehran would not be left with enough fissile material for
&gt;&gt;&gt; its secret domestic uranium enrichment program -- and for what the West
&gt;&gt;&gt; assumes is the building of a nuclear bomb.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;         PHOTO GALLERY
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;     * &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;     * &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;     * &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; 3  Photos
&gt;&gt;&gt; *Photo Gallery:* Iran's Nuclear Program
&gt;&gt;&gt; &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Tehran's leaders initially agreed to the proposal "in principle." But
&gt;&gt;&gt; for weeks they put off the international community with vague allusions
&gt;&gt;&gt; to a "final response," and when that response finally materialized, it
&gt;&gt;&gt; came in the form of a "counter-proposal." Under this proposal, Tehran
&gt;&gt;&gt; insisted that the exchange could not take place all at once, but only in
&gt;&gt;&gt; stages, and that the material would not be sent abroad. Instead, Tehran
&gt;&gt;&gt; wanted the exchange to take place in Iran.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Once again, the Iranian leadership has rebuffed the West with phony
&gt;&gt;&gt; promises of its willingness to compromise. The government in Tehran
&gt;&gt;&gt; officially rejected the nuclear exchange plan last Tuesday. To make
&gt;&gt;&gt; matters worse, after the West's discovery of a secret uranium enrichment
&gt;&gt;&gt; plant near Qom, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad defiantly announced that
&gt;&gt;&gt; he would never give in, and in fact would build 10 more enrichment
&gt;&gt;&gt; plants instead.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; *Highly Volatile Material*
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; But officials in Washington and European capitals are currently not as
&gt;&gt;&gt; concerned about these cocky, unrealistic announcements as they are about
&gt;&gt;&gt; intelligence reports based on sources within Iran and information from
&gt;&gt;&gt; high-ranking defectors. The new information, say American experts, will
&gt;&gt;&gt; likely prompt the US government to reassess the risks coming from the
&gt;&gt;&gt; mullah-controlled country in the coming days and raise the alarm level
&gt;&gt;&gt; from yellow to red. Skeptics who in the past, sometimes justifiably so,
&gt;&gt;&gt; treated alarmist reports as Israeli propaganda, are also extremely
&gt;&gt;&gt; worried. They include the experts from the United Nations International
&gt;&gt;&gt; Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whose goal is prevent the spread of nuclear
&gt;&gt;&gt; weapons.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; After an extensive internal investigation, IAEA officials concluded that
&gt;&gt;&gt; a computer obtained from Iran years ago contains highly volatile
&gt;&gt;&gt; material. The laptop reached the Americans through Germany's foreign
&gt;&gt;&gt; intelligence agency, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), and was then
&gt;&gt;&gt; passed on to the IAEA in Vienna.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Reports by Ali Reza Asgari, Iran's former deputy defense minister who
&gt;&gt;&gt; managed to defect to the United States, where he was given a new
&gt;&gt;&gt; identity, proved to be just as informative. Nuclear scientist Shahram
&gt;&gt;&gt; Amiri, who "disappeared" during a pilgrimage to Mecca in June 2009, is
&gt;&gt;&gt; also believed to have particularly valuable information. The Iranian
&gt;&gt;&gt; authorities accused Saudi Arabia and the United States of kidnapping the
&gt;&gt;&gt; expert, but it is more likely that he defected.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Iran's government has come under pressure as a result of the new
&gt;&gt;&gt; charges. They center on the question of who exactly is responsible for
&gt;&gt;&gt; the country's nuclear program -- and what this says about its true
&gt;&gt;&gt; nature. The government has consistently told the IAEA that the only
&gt;&gt;&gt; agency involved in uranium enrichment is the National Energy Council,
&gt;&gt;&gt; and that its work was exclusively dedicated to the peaceful use of the
&gt;&gt;&gt; technology.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; But if the claims are true that have been made in an intelligence
&gt;&gt;&gt; dossier currently under review in diplomatic circles in Washington,
&gt;&gt;&gt; Vienna, Tel Aviv and Berlin, portions of which SPIEGEL has obtained,
&gt;&gt;&gt; this is a half-truth at best.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; According to the classified document, there is a secret military branch
&gt;&gt;&gt; of Iran's nuclear research program that answers to the Defense Ministry
&gt;&gt;&gt; and has clandestine structures. The officials who have read the dossier
&gt;&gt;&gt; conclude that the government in Tehran is serious about developing a
&gt;&gt;&gt; bomb, and that its plans are well advanced. There are two names that
&gt;&gt;&gt; appear again and again in the documents, particularly in connection with
&gt;&gt;&gt; the secret weapons program: Kamran Daneshjoo and Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; *Secret Heart of Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program*
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Daneshjoo, 52, Iran's new minister of science, research and technology,
&gt;&gt;&gt; is also responsible for the country's nuclear energy agency, and he is
&gt;&gt;&gt; seen as a close ally of Ahmadinejad. Opposition leaders say he is a
&gt;&gt;&gt; hardliner who was partly responsible for the apparently rigged
&gt;&gt;&gt; presidential election in June. Daneshjoo's biography includes only
&gt;&gt;&gt; marginal references to his possible nuclear expertise. In describing
&gt;&gt;&gt; himself, the man with the steely-gray beard writes that he studied
&gt;&gt;&gt; engineering in the British city of Manchester, and then spent several
&gt;&gt;&gt; years working at a Tehran "Center for Aviation Technology." Western
&gt;&gt;&gt; experts believe that this center developed into a sub-organization of
&gt;&gt;&gt; the Defense Ministry known as the FEDAT, an acronym for the "Department
&gt;&gt;&gt; for Expanded High-Technology Applications" -- the secret heart of Iran's
&gt;&gt;&gt; nuclear weapons program. The head of that organization is Mohsen
&gt;&gt;&gt; Fakhrizadeh, 48, an officer in the Revolutionary Guard and a professor
&gt;&gt;&gt; at Tehran's Imam Hossein University.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Western intelligence agencies believe that although the nuclear energy
&gt;&gt;&gt; agency and the FEDAT compete in some areas, they have agreed to a
&gt;&gt;&gt; division of labor on the central issue of nuclear weapons research, with
&gt;&gt;&gt; the nuclear agency primarily supervising uranium enrichment while the
&gt;&gt;&gt; FEDAT is involved in the construction of a nuclear warhead to be used in
&gt;&gt;&gt; Iran's Shahab missiles. Experts believe that Iran's scientists could
&gt;&gt;&gt; produce a primitive, truck-sized version of the bomb this year, but that
&gt;&gt;&gt; it would have to be compressed to a size that would fit into a nuclear
&gt;&gt;&gt; warhead to yield the strategic threat potential that has Israel and the
&gt;&gt;&gt; West so alarmed -- and that they could reach that stage by sometime
&gt;&gt;&gt; between 2012 and 2014.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; The Iranians are believed to have conducted non-nuclear tests of a
&gt;&gt;&gt; detonating mechanism for a nuclear bomb more than six years ago. The
&gt;&gt;&gt; challenge in the technology is to uniformly ignite the conventional
&gt;&gt;&gt; explosives surrounding the uranium core -- which is needed to produce
&gt;&gt;&gt; the desired chain reaction. It is believed that the test series was
&gt;&gt;&gt; conducted with a warhead encased in aluminum. In other words, everything
&gt;&gt;&gt; but the core was "real." According to the reports, the Tehran engineers
&gt;&gt;&gt; used thin fibers and a measuring circuit board in place of the fissile
&gt;&gt;&gt; material. This enabled them to measure the shock waves and photograph
&gt;&gt;&gt; flashes that simulate the detonation of a nuclear bomb with some degree
&gt;&gt;&gt; of accuracy. The results were apparently so encouraging that the Iranian
&gt;&gt;&gt; government has since classified the technology as "feasible."
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; SPIEGEL obtained access to a FEDAT organizational chart and a list of
&gt;&gt;&gt; the names of scientists working for the agency. The Vienna-based IAEA
&gt;&gt;&gt; also has these documents, but the Iranian president claims that they are
&gt;&gt;&gt; forged and are being used to discredit his country. After reporting two
&gt;&gt;&gt; years ago that the Iranians had frozen their nuclear weapons research in
&gt;&gt;&gt; 2003, the CIA and other intelligence agencies will probably paint a
&gt;&gt;&gt; significantly more sobering scenario just as the UN Security Council is
&gt;&gt;&gt; considering tougher sanctions against Iran.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; *Mulling Sanctions*
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; When France assumes the Council's rotating chairmanship in February,
&gt;&gt;&gt; Washington could push for a showdown. While Moscow is not ruling out
&gt;&gt;&gt; additional punitive measures, China, which has negotiated billions in
&gt;&gt;&gt; energy deals with Iran, is more likely to block such measures.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; China could, however, approve "smart" sanctions, such as travel
&gt;&gt;&gt; restrictions for senior members of the Revolutionary Guard and nuclear
&gt;&gt;&gt; scientists. Fakhrizadeh is already on a list of officials subject to
&gt;&gt;&gt; such restrictions, and Daneshjoo could well be added in the future.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; But the West would presumably be on its own when enforcing sanctions
&gt;&gt;&gt; that would be truly harmful to Iran -- and to its own, profitable trade
&gt;&gt;&gt; relations with Tehran. The most effective trade weapon would be a fuel
&gt;&gt;&gt; embargo. Because of a lack of refinery capacity Iran, which has the
&gt;&gt;&gt; world's second-largest oil reserves, imports almost half of the gasoline
&gt;&gt;&gt; it uses. Sanctions would trigger a sharp rise in the price of gasoline,
&gt;&gt;&gt; inevitably leading to social unrest. Experts are divided over whether it
&gt;&gt;&gt; would be directed against the unpopular regime or if the country's
&gt;&gt;&gt; leaders could once again inflame the Iranian people against the "evil
&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt; West."
&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt; This leaves the military option. Apart from the political consequences
&gt;&gt;&gt; and the possibility of counter-attacks, bombing Iran's nuclear
&gt;&gt;&gt; facilities would be extremely difficult. The nuclear experts have
&gt;&gt;&gt; literally buried themselves and their facilities underground, in
&gt;&gt;&gt; locations that would be virtually impossible to reach with conventional
&gt;&gt;&gt; weapons.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; While even Israeli experts are skeptical over how much damage bombing
&gt;&gt;&gt; the facilities could do to the nuclear program, the normally levelheaded
&gt;&gt;&gt; US General David Petraeus sounded downright belligerent when asked
&gt;&gt;&gt; whether the Iranian nuclear facilities could be attacked militarily.
&gt;&gt;&gt; "Well, they certainly can be bombed," he said just two weeks ago in
&gt;&gt;&gt; Washington.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; /Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan/
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;   
&gt; 
&gt; -- 
&gt;  
&gt; Marko Papic
&gt; 
&gt; STRATFOR 
&gt; Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
&gt; 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
&gt; Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
&gt; TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
&gt; FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
&gt; marko.papic@stratfor.com
&gt; www.stratfor.com
&gt; 
</description>
    <date>2010-01-25 20:03:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-11 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1095521_re-thoughts-on-der-spiegel-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1095652</id>
    <title>RE: Thoughts on Der Spiegel?
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2010-01-25 19:10:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-11 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1095652_re-thoughts-on-der-spiegel-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/99/99141_image003.jpg</path><size>6770</size><md5></md5><sha1>1d870418ebf1270fc608c9b3dfdf466f86808eb3</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/99/99142_image002.jpg</path><size>29532</size><md5></md5><sha1>7cdefd5f04907f1eedacd63c3e4dfcea79d591ba</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/99/99143_image001.jpg</path><size>24177</size><md5></md5><sha1>a6e8a51ae5f0aa5991a92f4a3cdc871d4b2832e7</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1095668</id>
    <title>Re: Thoughts on Der Spiegel?
</title>
    <description>CIA also distrusts IAEA.

Reva Bhalla wrote:
&gt; Any thoughts on Der Spiegel as an outlet for Mossad or any other
&gt; intelligence agencies?  Have we seen examples of this in the past?  They
&gt; have some insane detail here (read the second half) where they claim
&gt; they've got all this access to a classified doc on Iran's nuclear
&gt; weapons program
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt;           01/25/2010
&gt; 
&gt;  
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt;   The Secret Nuclear Dossier
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt;     Intelligence from Tehran Elevates Concern in the West
&gt; 
&gt; By Dieter Bednarz, Erich Follath and Holger Stark
&gt; 
&gt; *The West has long been suspicous of Iran's nuclear program. SPIEGEL has
&gt; obtained new documents on secret tests and leadership structures that
&gt; call into question Tehran's claims to be exclusively interested in the
&gt; peaceful use of the technology.*
&gt; 
&gt; It was probably the last attempt to defuse the nuclear dispute with
&gt; Tehran without having to turn to dramatic new sanctions or military
&gt; action. The plan, devised at the White House in October, had Russian and
&gt; Chinese support and came with the seal of approval of the US president.
&gt; It was clearly a Barack Obama operation.
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; Under the plan, Iran would send a large share of its low enriched
&gt; uranium abroad, all at once, for a period of one year, receiving
&gt; internationally monitored quantities of nuclear fuel elements in return.
&gt; It was a deal that provided benefits for all sides. The Iranians would
&gt; have enough material for what they claim is their civilian nuclear
&gt; program, as well as for scientific experiments, and the world could be
&gt; assured that Tehran would not be left with enough fissile material for
&gt; its secret domestic uranium enrichment program -- and for what the West
&gt; assumes is the building of a nuclear bomb.
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt;         PHOTO GALLERY
&gt; 
&gt;     * &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;
&gt;     * &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;
&gt;     * &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; 3  Photos
&gt; *Photo Gallery:* Iran's Nuclear Program
&gt; &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; Tehran's leaders initially agreed to the proposal "in principle." But
&gt; for weeks they put off the international community with vague allusions
&gt; to a "final response," and when that response finally materialized, it
&gt; came in the form of a "counter-proposal." Under this proposal, Tehran
&gt; insisted that the exchange could not take place all at once, but only in
&gt; stages, and that the material would not be sent abroad. Instead, Tehran
&gt; wanted the exchange to take place in Iran.
&gt; 
&gt; Once again, the Iranian leadership has rebuffed the West with phony
&gt; promises of its willingness to compromise. The government in Tehran
&gt; officially rejected the nuclear exchange plan last Tuesday. To make
&gt; matters worse, after the West's discovery of a secret uranium enrichment
&gt; plant near Qom, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad defiantly announced that
&gt; he would never give in, and in fact would build 10 more enrichment
&gt; plants instead.
&gt; 
&gt; *Highly Volatile Material*
&gt; 
&gt; But officials in Washington and European capitals are currently not as
&gt; concerned about these cocky, unrealistic announcements as they are about
&gt; intelligence reports based on sources within Iran and information from
&gt; high-ranking defectors. The new information, say American experts, will
&gt; likely prompt the US government to reassess the risks coming from the
&gt; mullah-controlled country in the coming days and raise the alarm level
&gt; from yellow to red. Skeptics who in the past, sometimes justifiably so,
&gt; treated alarmist reports as Israeli propaganda, are also extremely
&gt; worried. They include the experts from the United Nations International
&gt; Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whose goal is prevent the spread of nuclear
&gt; weapons.
&gt; 
&gt; After an extensive internal investigation, IAEA officials concluded that
&gt; a computer obtained from Iran years ago contains highly volatile
&gt; material. The laptop reached the Americans through Germany's foreign
&gt; intelligence agency, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), and was then
&gt; passed on to the IAEA in Vienna.
&gt; 
&gt; Reports by Ali Reza Asgari, Iran's former deputy defense minister who
&gt; managed to defect to the United States, where he was given a new
&gt; identity, proved to be just as informative. Nuclear scientist Shahram
&gt; Amiri, who "disappeared" during a pilgrimage to Mecca in June 2009, is
&gt; also believed to have particularly valuable information. The Iranian
&gt; authorities accused Saudi Arabia and the United States of kidnapping the
&gt; expert, but it is more likely that he defected.
&gt; 
&gt; Iran's government has come under pressure as a result of the new
&gt; charges. They center on the question of who exactly is responsible for
&gt; the country's nuclear program -- and what this says about its true
&gt; nature. The government has consistently told the IAEA that the only
&gt; agency involved in uranium enrichment is the National Energy Council,
&gt; and that its work was exclusively dedicated to the peaceful use of the
&gt; technology.
&gt; 
&gt; But if the claims are true that have been made in an intelligence
&gt; dossier currently under review in diplomatic circles in Washington,
&gt; Vienna, Tel Aviv and Berlin, portions of which SPIEGEL has obtained,
&gt; this is a half-truth at best.
&gt; 
&gt; According to the classified document, there is a secret military branch
&gt; of Iran's nuclear research program that answers to the Defense Ministry
&gt; and has clandestine structures. The officials who have read the dossier
&gt; conclude that the government in Tehran is serious about developing a
&gt; bomb, and that its plans are well advanced. There are two names that
&gt; appear again and again in the documents, particularly in connection with
&gt; the secret weapons program: Kamran Daneshjoo and Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.
&gt; 
&gt; *Secret Heart of Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program*
&gt; 
&gt; Daneshjoo, 52, Iran's new minister of science, research and technology,
&gt; is also responsible for the country's nuclear energy agency, and he is
&gt; seen as a close ally of Ahmadinejad. Opposition leaders say he is a
&gt; hardliner who was partly responsible for the apparently rigged
&gt; presidential election in June. Daneshjoo's biography includes only
&gt; marginal references to his possible nuclear expertise. In describing
&gt; himself, the man with the steely-gray beard writes that he studied
&gt; engineering in the British city of Manchester, and then spent several
&gt; years working at a Tehran "Center for Aviation Technology." Western
&gt; experts believe that this center developed into a sub-organization of
&gt; the Defense Ministry known as the FEDAT, an acronym for the "Department
&gt; for Expanded High-Technology Applications" -- the secret heart of Iran's
&gt; nuclear weapons program. The head of that organization is Mohsen
&gt; Fakhrizadeh, 48, an officer in the Revolutionary Guard and a professor
&gt; at Tehran's Imam Hossein University.
&gt; 
&gt; Western intelligence agencies believe that although the nuclear energy
&gt; agency and the FEDAT compete in some areas, they have agreed to a
&gt; division of labor on the central issue of nuclear weapons research, with
&gt; the nuclear agency primarily supervising uranium enrichment while the
&gt; FEDAT is involved in the construction of a nuclear warhead to be used in
&gt; Iran's Shahab missiles. Experts believe that Iran's scientists could
&gt; produce a primitive, truck-sized version of the bomb this year, but that
&gt; it would have to be compressed to a size that would fit into a nuclear
&gt; warhead to yield the strategic threat potential that has Israel and the
&gt; West so alarmed -- and that they could reach that stage by sometime
&gt; between 2012 and 2014.
&gt; 
&gt; The Iranians are believed to have conducted non-nuclear tests of a
&gt; detonating mechanism for a nuclear bomb more than six years ago. The
&gt; challenge in the technology is to uniformly ignite the conventional
&gt; explosives surrounding the uranium core -- which is needed to produce
&gt; the desired chain reaction. It is believed that the test series was
&gt; conducted with a warhead encased in aluminum. In other words, everything
&gt; but the core was "real." According to the reports, the Tehran engineers
&gt; used thin fibers and a measuring circuit board in place of the fissile
&gt; material. This enabled them to measure the shock waves and photograph
&gt; flashes that simulate the detonation of a nuclear bomb with some degree
&gt; of accuracy. The results were apparently so encouraging that the Iranian
&gt; government has since classified the technology as "feasible."
&gt; 
&gt; SPIEGEL obtained access to a FEDAT organizational chart and a list of
&gt; the names of scientists working for the agency. The Vienna-based IAEA
&gt; also has these documents, but the Iranian president claims that they are
&gt; forged and are being used to discredit his country. After reporting two
&gt; years ago that the Iranians had frozen their nuclear weapons research in
&gt; 2003, the CIA and other intelligence agencies will probably paint a
&gt; significantly more sobering scenario just as the UN Security Council is
&gt; considering tougher sanctions against Iran.
&gt; 
&gt; *Mulling Sanctions*
&gt; 
&gt; When France assumes the Council's rotating chairmanship in February,
&gt; Washington could push for a showdown. While Moscow is not ruling out
&gt; additional punitive measures, China, which has negotiated billions in
&gt; energy deals with Iran, is more likely to block such measures.
&gt; 
&gt; China could, however, approve "smart" sanctions, such as travel
&gt; restrictions for senior members of the Revolutionary Guard and nuclear
&gt; scientists. Fakhrizadeh is already on a list of officials subject to
&gt; such restrictions, and Daneshjoo could well be added in the future.
&gt; 
&gt; But the West would presumably be on its own when enforcing sanctions
&gt; that would be truly harmful to Iran -- and to its own, profitable trade
&gt; relations with Tehran. The most effective trade weapon would be a fuel
&gt; embargo. Because of a lack of refinery capacity Iran, which has the
&gt; world's second-largest oil reserves, imports almost half of the gasoline
&gt; it uses. Sanctions would trigger a sharp rise in the price of gasoline,
&gt; inevitably leading to social unrest. Experts are divided over whether it
&gt; would be directed against the unpopular regime or if the country's
&gt; leaders could once again inflame the Iranian people against the "evil West."
&gt; 
&gt; This leaves the military option. Apart from the political consequences
&gt; and the possibility of counter-attacks, bombing Iran's nuclear
&gt; facilities would be extremely difficult. The nuclear experts have
&gt; literally buried themselves and their facilities underground, in
&gt; locations that would be virtually impossible to reach with conventional
&gt; weapons.
&gt; 
&gt; While even Israeli experts are skeptical over how much damage bombing
&gt; the facilities could do to the nuclear program, the normally levelheaded
&gt; US General David Petraeus sounded downright belligerent when asked
&gt; whether the Iranian nuclear facilities could be attacked militarily.
&gt; "Well, they certainly can be bombed," he said just two weeks ago in
&gt; Washington.
&gt; 
&gt; /Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan/
&gt; 
</description>
    <date>2010-01-25 19:40:38</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-11 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1095668_re-thoughts-on-der-spiegel-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1095686</id>
    <title>Re: Thoughts on Der Spiegel?
</title>
    <description>   To answer Reva's question, this is certainly something that could be
   assumed. Mossad and German intelligence have grown close over the years,
   especially following the fiasco in Munich. On the other hand, Der Spiegel
   usually does very good in depth analyses and investigative work. Best at
   that in Germany. In that way, it has a very good tradition of
   investigative journalism similar to the Guardian (although it is a weekly,
   not a daily like the Guardian).

   Kamran Bokhari wrote:

 If you are going by what defectors tell you then it is also reasonable to
 assume that the Iranians have moved things around since the defections.

 -----Original Message-----
 From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
 On Behalf Of Fred Burton
 Sent: January-25-10 1:43 PM
 To: Analyst List
 Subject: Re: Thoughts on Der Spiegel?

 Western experts believe that this center developed into a
 sub-organization of the Defense Ministry known as the FEDAT, an acronym
 for the "Department for Expanded High-Technology Applications" -- the
 secret heart of Iran's nuclear weapons program. The head of that
 organization is Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, 48, an officer in the Revolutionary
 Guard and a professor at Tehran's Imam Hossein University.

 ** This kind of granularity is critical.


 Reva Bhalla wrote:
  

 Any thoughts on Der Spiegel as an outlet for Mossad or any other
 intelligence agencies?  Have we seen examples of this in the past?  They
 have some insane detail here (read the second half) where they claim
 they've got all this access to a classified doc on Iran's nuclear
 weapons program



           01/25/2010

 


   The Secret Nuclear Dossier


     Intelligence from Tehran Elevates Concern in the West

 By Dieter Bednarz, Erich Follath and Holger Stark

 *The West has long been suspicous of Iran's nuclear program. SPIEGEL has
 obtained new documents on secret tests and leadership structures that
 call into question Tehran's claims to be exclusively interested in the
 peaceful use of the technology.*

 It was probably the last attempt to defuse the nuclear dispute with
 Tehran without having to turn to dramatic new sanctions or military
 action. The plan, devised at the White House in October, had Russian and
 Chinese support and came with the seal of approval of the US president.
 It was clearly a Barack Obama operation.


 Under the plan, Iran would send a large share of its low enriched
 uranium abroad, all at once, for a period of one year, receiving
 internationally monitored quantities of nuclear fuel elements in return.
 It was a deal that provided benefits for all sides. The Iranians would
 have enough material for what they claim is their civilian nuclear
 program, as well as for scientific experiments, and the world could be
 assured that Tehran would not be left with enough fissile material for
 its secret domestic uranium enrichment program -- and for what the West
 assumes is the building of a nuclear bomb.


         PHOTO GALLERY

     * &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;
     * &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;
     * &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;


 3  Photos
 *Photo Gallery:* Iran's Nuclear Program
 &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;


 Tehran's leaders initially agreed to the proposal "in principle." But
 for weeks they put off the international community with vague allusions
 to a "final response," and when that response finally materialized, it
 came in the form of a "counter-proposal." Under this proposal, Tehran
 insisted that the exchange could not take place all at once, but only in
 stages, and that the material would not be sent abroad. Instead, Tehran
 wanted the exchange to take place in Iran.

 Once again, the Iranian leadership has rebuffed the West with phony
 promises of its willingness to compromise. The government in Tehran
 officially rejected the nuclear exchange plan last Tuesday. To make
 matters worse, after the West's discovery of a secret uranium enrichment
 plant near Qom, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad defiantly announced that
 he would never give in, and in fact would build 10 more enrichment
 plants instead.

 *Highly Volatile Material*

 But officials in Washington and European capitals are currently not as
 concerned about these cocky, unrealistic announcements as they are about
 intelligence reports based on sources within Iran and information from
 high-ranking defectors. The new information, say American experts, will
 likely prompt the US government to reassess the risks coming from the
 mullah-controlled country in the coming days and raise the alarm level
 from yellow to red. Skeptics who in the past, sometimes justifiably so,
 treated alarmist reports as Israeli propaganda, are also extremely
 worried. They include the experts from the United Nations International
 Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whose goal is prevent the spread of nuclear
 weapons.

 After an extensive internal investigation, IAEA officials concluded that
 a computer obtained from Iran years ago contains highly volatile
 material. The laptop reached the Americans through Germany's foreign
 intelligence agency, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), and was then
 passed on to the IAEA in Vienna.

 Reports by Ali Reza Asgari, Iran's former deputy defense minister who
 managed to defect to the United States, where he was given a new
 identity, proved to be just as informative. Nuclear scientist Shahram
 Amiri, who "disappeared" during a pilgrimage to Mecca in June 2009, is
 also believed to have particularly valuable information. The Iranian
 authorities accused Saudi Arabia and the United States of kidnapping the
 expert, but it is more likely that he defected.

 Iran's government has come under pressure as a result of the new
 charges. They center on the question of who exactly is responsible for
 the country's nuclear program -- and what this says about its true
 nature. The government has consistently told the IAEA that the only
 agency involved in uranium enrichment is the National Energy Council,
 and that its work was exclusively dedicated to the peaceful use of the
 technology.

 But if the claims are true that have been made in an intelligence
 dossier currently under review in diplomatic circles in Washington,
 Vienna, Tel Aviv and Berlin, portions of which SPIEGEL has obtained,
 this is a half-truth at best.

 According to the classified document, there is a secret military branch
 of Iran's nuclear research program that answers to the Defense Ministry
 and has clandestine structures. The officials who have read the dossier
 conclude that the government in Tehran is serious about developing a
 bomb, and that its plans are well advanced. There are two names that
 appear again and again in the documents, particularly in connection with
 the secret weapons program: Kamran Daneshjoo and Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.

 *Secret Heart of Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program*

 Daneshjoo, 52, Iran's new minister of science, research and technology,
 is also responsible for the country's nuclear energy agency, and he is
 seen as a close ally of Ahmadinejad. Opposition leaders say he is a
 hardliner who was partly responsible for the apparently rigged
 presidential election in June. Daneshjoo's biography includes only
 marginal references to his possible nuclear expertise. In describing
 himself, the man with the steely-gray beard writes that he studied
 engineering in the British city of Manchester, and then spent several
 years working at a Tehran "Center for Aviation Technology." Western
 experts believe that this center developed into a sub-organization of
 the Defense Ministry known as the FEDAT, an acronym for the "Department
 for Expanded High-Technology Applications" -- the secret heart of Iran's
 nuclear weapons program. The head of that organization is Mohsen
 Fakhrizadeh, 48, an officer in the Revolutionary Guard and a professor
 at Tehran's Imam Hossein University.

 Western intelligence agencies believe that although the nuclear energy
 agency and the FEDAT compete in some areas, they have agreed to a
 division of labor on the central issue of nuclear weapons research, with
 the nuclear agency primarily supervising uranium enrichment while the
 FEDAT is involved in the construction of a nuclear warhead to be used in
 Iran's Shahab missiles. Experts believe that Iran's scientists could
 produce a primitive, truck-sized version of the bomb this year, but that
 it would have to be compressed to a size that would fit into a nuclear
 warhead to yield the strategic threat potential that has Israel and the
 West so alarmed -- and that they could reach that stage by sometime
 between 2012 and 2014.

 The Iranians are believed to have conducted non-nuclear tests of a
 detonating mechanism for a nuclear bomb more than six years ago. The
 challenge in the technology is to uniformly ignite the conventional
 explosives surrounding the uranium core -- which is needed to produce
 the desired chain reaction. It is believed that the test series was
 conducted with a warhead encased in aluminum. In other words, everything
 but the core was "real." According to the reports, the Tehran engineers
 used thin fibers and a measuring circuit board in place of the fissile
 material. This enabled them to measure the shock waves and photograph
 flashes that simulate the detonation of a nuclear bomb with some degree
 of accuracy. The results were apparently so encouraging that the Iranian
 government has since classified the technology as "feasible."

 SPIEGEL obtained access to a FEDAT organizational chart and a list of
 the names of scientists working for the agency. The Vienna-based IAEA
 also has these documents, but the Iranian president claims that they are
 forged and are being used to discredit his country. After reporting two
 years ago that the Iranians had frozen their nuclear weapons research in
 2003, the CIA and other intelligence agencies will probably paint a
 significantly more sobering scenario just as the UN Security Council is
 considering tougher sanctions against Iran.

 *Mulling Sanctions*

 When France assumes the Council's rotating chairmanship in February,
 Washington could push for a showdown. While Moscow is not ruling out
 additional punitive measures, China, which has negotiated billions in
 energy deals with Iran, is more likely to block such measures.

 China could, however, approve "smart" sanctions, such as travel
 restrictions for senior members of the Revolutionary Guard and nuclear
 scientists. Fakhrizadeh is already on a list of officials subject to
 such restrictions, and Daneshjoo could well be added in the future.

 But the West would presumably be on its own when enforcing sanctions
 that would be truly harmful to Iran -- and to its own, profitable trade
 relations with Tehran. The most effective trade weapon would be a fuel
 embargo. Because of a lack of refinery capacity Iran, which has the
 world's second-largest oil reserves, imports almost half of the gasoline
 it uses. Sanctions would trigger a sharp rise in the price of gasoline,
 inevitably leading to social unrest. Experts are divided over whether it
 would be directed against the unpopular regime or if the country's
 leaders could once again inflame the Iranian people against the "evil
    

 West."
  

 This leaves the military option. Apart from the political consequences
 and the possibility of counter-attacks, bombing Iran's nuclear
 facilities would be extremely difficult. The nuclear experts have
 literally buried themselves and their facilities underground, in
 locations that would be virtually impossible to reach with conventional
 weapons.

 While even Israeli experts are skeptical over how much damage bombing
 the facilities could do to the nuclear program, the normally levelheaded
 US General David Petraeus sounded downright belligerent when asked
 whether the Iranian nuclear facilities could be attacked militarily.
 "Well, they certainly can be bombed," he said just two weeks ago in
 Washington.

 /Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan/

    

  

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
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</description>
    <date>2010-01-25 19:58:31</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-11 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1095686_re-thoughts-on-der-spiegel-.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1095884</id>
    <title>RE: Thoughts on Der Spiegel?
</title>
    <description>   Not saying they are also false but the involvement is exaggerated. There
   is no way A-Dogg has control over the nuclear establishment. He has
   tremendous amount of influence over it but this is one of those projects
   that the Sepah have control over and the Sepah go back to the SL.
   Daneshjoo is an A-Dogg man and therefore is unlikely to be that
   influential. Same thing with Fakhrizadeh. The article or the intelligence
   it is based on is over privileging his role over an entire and complex
   establishment.  

    

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Reva Bhalla
   Sent: January-25-10 1:14 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: Thoughts on Der Spiegel?

    

   well we really have no way of determining Daneshjoo's or Fakhrizadeh's
   exact involvement in the program. doesn't mean the claims in the article
   are necessarily false

    

   On Jan 25, 2010, at 12:10 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

   This article has some oddities. First Kamran Daneshjoo is an A-Dogg ally
   and thus hasn't been around for a long time. Until recently he was EC
   chief. The nuclear establishment is very large. Between the AEO, SNSC,
   IRGC, the SL's office, Majlis' Nat'l Security and Foreign Policy
   Committee, he doesn't stand a chance to be a key player. The Defense
   Ministry has an input into the nuclear establishment but it is one of many
   players. The other guy, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who is an IRGC officer
   (unknown rank) and is a nuclear physicist is also an obscure guy. It also
   seems like the article uses Asgari and Amiri's involvement to rattle the
   Iranian chain as they have been concerned about it.  

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
   [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Reva Bhalla
   Sent: January-25-10 12:42 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Thoughts on Der Spiegel?

    

   Any thoughts on Der Spiegel as an outlet for Mossad or any other
   intelligence agencies?  Have we seen examples of this in the past?  They
   have some insane detail here (read the second half) where they claim
   they've got all this access to a classified doc on Iran's nuclear weapons
   program

    

    

    

      01/25/2010

    

                           The Secret Nuclear Dossier

Intelligence from Tehran Elevates Concern in the West

   By Dieter Bednarz, Erich Follath and Holger Stark

   The West has long been suspicous of Iran's nuclear program. SPIEGEL has
   obtained new documents on secret tests and leadership structures that call
   into question Tehran's claims to be exclusively interested in the peaceful
   use of the technology.

   It was probably the last attempt to defuse the nuclear dispute with Tehran
   without having to turn to dramatic new sanctions or military action. The
   plan, devised at the White House in October, had Russian and Chinese
   support and came with the seal of approval of the US president. It was
   clearly a Barack Obama operation.

    

   Under the plan, Iran would send a large share of its low enriched uranium
   abroad, all at once, for a period of one year, receiving internationally
   monitored quantities of nuclear fuel elements in return. It was a deal
   that provided benefits for all sides. The Iranians would have enough
   material for what they claim is their civilian nuclear program, as well as
   for scientific experiments, and the world could be assured that Tehran
   would not be left with enough fissile material for its secret domestic
   uranium enrichment program -- and for what the West assumes is the
   building of a nuclear bomb.

    

    

    PHOTO GALLERY

   .         &lt;image001.jpg&gt;

   .         &lt;image002.jpg&gt;

   .         &lt;image003.jpg&gt;

   3  Photos

   Photo Gallery: Iran's Nuclear Program

    

   Tehran's leaders initially agreed to the proposal "in principle." But for
   weeks they put off the international community with vague allusions to a
   "final response," and when that response finally materialized, it came in
   the form of a "counter-proposal." Under this proposal, Tehran insisted
   that the exchange could not take place all at once, but only in stages,
   and that the material would not be sent abroad. Instead, Tehran wanted the
   exchange to take place in Iran.

   Once again, the Iranian leadership has rebuffed the West with phony
   promises of its willingness to compromise. The government in Tehran
   officially rejected the nuclear exchange plan last Tuesday. To make
   matters worse, after the West's discovery of a secret uranium enrichment
   plant near Qom, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad defiantly announced that he
   would never give in, and in fact would build 10 more enrichment plants
   instead.

   Highly Volatile Material

   But officials in Washington and European capitals are currently not as
   concerned about these cocky, unrealistic announcements as they are about
   intelligence reports based on sources within Iran and information from
   high-ranking defectors. The new information, say American experts, will
   likely prompt the US government to reassess the risks coming from the
   mullah-controlled country in the coming days and raise the alarm level
   from yellow to red. Skeptics who in the past, sometimes justifiably so,
   treated alarmist reports as Israeli propaganda, are also extremely
   worried. They include the experts from the United Nations International
   Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whose goal is prevent the spread of nuclear
   weapons.

   After an extensive internal investigation, IAEA officials concluded that a
   computer obtained from Iran years ago contains highly volatile material.
   The laptop reached the Americans through Germany's foreign intelligence
   agency, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), and was then passed on to the
   IAEA in Vienna.

   Reports by Ali Reza Asgari, Iran's former deputy defense minister who
   managed to defect to the United States, where he was given a new identity,
   proved to be just as informative. Nuclear scientist Shahram Amiri, who
   "disappeared" during a pilgrimage to Mecca in June 2009, is also believed
   to have particularly valuable information. The Iranian authorities accused
   Saudi Arabia and the United States of kidnapping the expert, but it is
   more likely that he defected.

   Iran's government has come under pressure as a result of the new charges.
   They center on the question of who exactly is responsible for the
   country's nuclear program -- and what this says about its true nature. The
   government has consistently told the IAEA that the only agency involved in
   uranium enrichment is the National Energy Council, and that its work was
   exclusively dedicated to the peaceful use of the technology.

   But if the claims are true that have been made in an intelligence dossier
   currently under review in diplomatic circles in Washington, Vienna, Tel
   Aviv and Berlin, portions of which SPIEGEL has obtained, this is a
   half-truth at best.

   According to the classified document, there is a secret military branch of
   Iran's nuclear research program that answers to the Defense Ministry and
   has clandestine structures. The officials who have read the dossier
   conclude that the government in Tehran is serious about developing a bomb,
   and that its plans are well advanced. There are two names that appear
   again and again in the documents, particularly in connection with the
   secret weapons program: Kamran Daneshjoo and Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.

   Secret Heart of Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program

   Daneshjoo, 52, Iran's new minister of science, research and technology, is
   also responsible for the country's nuclear energy agency, and he is seen
   as a close ally of Ahmadinejad. Opposition leaders say he is a hardliner
   who was partly responsible for the apparently rigged presidential election
   in June. Daneshjoo's biography includes only marginal references to his
   possible nuclear expertise. In describing himself, the man with the
   steely-gray beard writes that he studied engineering in the British city
   of Manchester, and then spent several years working at a Tehran "Center
   for Aviation Technology." Western experts believe that this center
   developed into a sub-organization of the Defense Ministry known as the
   FEDAT, an acronym for the "Department for Expanded High-Technology
   Applications" -- the secret heart of Iran's nuclear weapons program. The
   head of that organization is Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, 48, an officer in the
   Revolutionary Guard and a professor at Tehran's Imam Hossein University.

   Western intelligence agencies believe that although the nuclear energy
   agency and the FEDAT compete in some areas, they have agreed to a division
   of labor on the central issue of nuclear weapons research, with the
   nuclear agency primarily supervising uranium enrichment while the FEDAT is
   involved in the construction of a nuclear warhead to be used in Iran's
   Shahab missiles. Experts believe that Iran's scientists could produce a
   primitive, truck-sized version of the bomb this year, but that it would
   have to be compressed to a size that would fit into a nuclear warhead to
   yield the strategic threat potential that has Israel and the West so
   alarmed -- and that they could reach that stage by sometime between 2012
   and 2014.

   The Iranians are believed to have conducted non-nuclear tests of a
   detonating mechanism for a nuclear bomb more than six years ago. The
   challenge in the technology is to uniformly ignite the conventional
   explosives surrounding the uranium core -- which is needed to produce the
   desired chain reaction. It is believed that the test series was conducted
   with a warhead encased in aluminum. In other words, everything but the
   core was "real." According to the reports, the Tehran engineers used thin
   fibers and a measuring circuit board in place of the fissile material.
   This enabled them to measure the shock waves and photograph flashes that
   simulate the detonation of a nuclear bomb with some degree of accuracy.
   The results were apparently so encouraging that the Iranian government has
   since classified the technology as "feasible."

   SPIEGEL obtained access to a FEDAT organizational chart and a list of the
   names of scientists working for the agency. The Vienna-based IAEA also has
   these documents, but the Iranian president claims that they are forged and
   are being used to discredit his country. After reporting two years ago
   that the Iranians had frozen their nuclear weapons research in 2003, the
   CIA and other intelligence agencies will probably paint a significantly
   more sobering scenario just as the UN Security Council is considering
   tougher sanctions against Iran.

   Mulling Sanctions

   When France assumes the Council's rotating chairmanship in February,
   Washington could push for a showdown. While Moscow is not ruling out
   additional punitive measures, China, which has negotiated billions in
   energy deals with Iran, is more likely to block such measures.

   China could, however, approve "smart" sanctions, such as travel
   restrictions for senior members of the Revolutionary Guard and nuclear
   scientists. Fakhrizadeh is already on a list of officials subject to such
   restrictions, and Daneshjoo could well be added in the future.

   But the West would presumably be on its own when enforcing sanctions that
   would be truly harmful to Iran -- and to its own, profitable trade
   relations with Tehran. The most effective trade weapon would be a fuel
   embargo. Because of a lack of refinery capacity Iran, which has the
   world's second-largest oil reserves, imports almost half of the gasoline
   it uses. Sanctions would trigger a sharp rise in the price of gasoline,
   inevitably leading to social unrest. Experts are divided over whether it
   would be directed against the unpopular regime or if the country's leaders
   could once again inflame the Iranian people against the "evil West."

   This leaves the military option. Apart from the political consequences and
   the possibility of counter-attacks, bombing Iran's nuclear facilities
   would be extremely difficult. The nuclear experts have literally buried
   themselves and their facilities underground, in locations that would be
   virtually impossible to reach with conventional weapons.

   While even Israeli experts are skeptical over how much damage bombing the
   facilities could do to the nuclear program, the normally levelheaded US
   General David Petraeus sounded downright belligerent when asked whether
   the Iranian nuclear facilities could be attacked militarily. "Well, they
   certainly can be bombed," he said just two weeks ago in Washington.

   Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan

    
</description>
    <date>2010-01-25 19:22:15</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-11 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1095884_re-thoughts-on-der-spiegel-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1096148</id>
    <title>Occupy's 'nerve center' staffed by Soros activists
</title>
    <description>                        To View As Web Page Click Here.                       

   +------------------------------------------------------------------------+
   |Newsletter - TeaParty.org                                               |
   |                                                                        |
   |                            Secret Funding!                             |
   |                                                                        |
   |                        Occupy's 'Nerve Center'                         |
   | The so-called leaderless Occupy movement has just been caught          |
   | red-handed operating what appears to be a nerve center staffed by      |
   | professional agitators deeply tied to groups funded by billionaire     |
   | activist George Soros.                                                 |
   |                                                                        |
   | The groups, most prominent among them being the Tides Center, have     |
   | been involved with Occupy since the anti-Wall Street movement's        |
   | inception.                                                             |
   |                                                                        |
   | The radical connections have been largely missed by the general        |
   | public. CNN, the only news media outlet to receive exclusive access to |
   | Occupy's alleged headquarters, did not fully identify the activists    |
   | found running it.                                                      |
   |                    Fax a Flag - Wake Up Washington                     |
   | Last week, CNN ran a piece titled "Exclusive: Inside the offices of    |
   | Occupy Wall Street."                                                   |
   |                                                                        |
   | The article and accompanying video purport to depict "a few dozen      |
   | Occupy Wall Street organizers" who "show up to work every day at an    |
   | office building in the heart of Manhattan's Financial District."       |
   |                                                                        |
   | CNN surmised "the office space appears to be the movement's nerve      |
   | center," a notion denied by Occupy leaders interviewed by the news     |
   | network.                                                               |
   |                                                                        |
   | Continued the piece: "But the volunteers who plan future actions,      |
   | network with other Occupy protests and deal with logistical issues     |
   | insisted the location is not Occupy Wall Street's headquarters."       |
   |                                                                        |
   | The news network maintained it visited Occupy's nerve center. CNN      |
   | reported the Occupy office boasts a finance committee that manages     |
   | expenses and donations; a communications group that disseminates       |
   | information agreed upon by consensus and a housing group to make       |
   | sleeping arrangements for protesters.                                  |
   |                                                                        |
   | CNN quoted activist Han Shan, identifying him only as "a member of     |
   | Occupy Wall Street's press relations and direct-action working         |
   | groups."                                                               |
   |                                                                        |
   | "This is just an office space that a handful of people have tried to   |
   | make a resource for the Occupy Wall Street movement," Shan stated.     |
   |                                                                        |
   | "Everybody is looking around trying to figure out where the heck the   |
   | headquarters is, and the truth of the matter is this movement is       |
   | bigger than any piece of geography, than any piece of real estate,     |
   | than any square block."                                                |
   |                                                                        |
   | Shan's radical resume goes far beyond Occupy. He is the former program |
   | director for the Tides Center-funded Ruckus Society and an activist    |
   | with the Tides-funded Adbusters.                                       |
   | For Price of Six-pack and a Pizza You Can Support the Tea Party for a  |
   |                                 Month!                                 |
   | Shan was listed as the contact person for protests outside the 2000    |
   | Democratic National Convention. Those protests were sponsored by both  |
   | Adbusters and Ruckus.                                                  |
   |                                                                        |
   | Shan previously pulled off a stunt at the Mall of America in           |
   | Minneapolis, where he reportedly climbed to the top of the building    |
   | and unfurled a 600-square-foot cartoon that depicted the earth falling |
   | through a broken shopping bag. The action was aimed at getting mall    |
   | visitors to ditch their purchases, go home and observe Thanksgiving    |
   | Friday as "Buy Nothing Day."                                           |
   |                                                                        |
   | Since 1992, "Buy Nothing Day" has been sponsored annually by the       |
   | Vancouver-based Media Foundation, which publishes Adbusters.           |
   |                                                                        |
   | Adbusters magazine is reported to have come up with the Occupy Wall    |
   | Street idea after Arab Spring protests toppled governments in Egypt,   |
   | Libya and Tunisia. The Adbusters website serves as a central hub for   |
   | Occupy's planning.                                                     |
   |                                                                        |
   | Working with the Ruckus Society, Shan was a leader of the 1999 World   |
   | Trade Organization protests in Seattle that turned violent. Ruckus     |
   | helped to spark those riots.                                           |
   |                                                                        |
   | Ruckus is directly tied to Occupy. WND previously reported how         |
   | official direct-action training resources for recent Occupy events     |
   | include several manuals from the Ruckus Society, which trains radical  |
   | activists in "direct action" techniques.                               |
   |                                                                        |
   | Ruckus was also listed as a "friend and partner" of the Occupy Days of |
   | Action held last month.                                                |
   |                                                                        |
   | Ruckus is funded by the Tides Center, which has been involved in       |
   | Occupy since the movement's onset.                                     |
   |                                                                        |
   | Another grantee of Tides is the Adbusters magazine. MoveOn org, which  |
   | has joined Occupy, is funded by Tides.                                 |
   |                                                                        |
   | Tides functions as a money tunnel where major leftist donors provide   |
   | large sums that are channeled to hundreds of radical groups. One       |
   | prominent Tides donor is Soros.                                        |
   |                                                                        |
   | Besides accepting major donations from Tides, Ruckus is also funded    |
   | directly by Soros' own Open Society Institute.                         |
   |                                                                        |
   | Meanwhile, another Occupy staffer loosely identified by CNN is Haywood |
   | Carey, who is labeled simply as an Occupy "activist." KEEP READING -   |
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   | 1. What is says is Obama doesn't stand a chance against the law suits  |
   | that can be brought against him in each State. It describes what and   |
   | how we came from using the term Natural Born Citizen to Citizen and    |
   | what the Constitution and Courts have upheld in regards to those       |
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   |                           Join Command Center                          |
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   | Citizen is and that illegal aliens that come here and have their       |
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   | your local governing bodies, have stipulations in their requirements   |
   | for people running for you Mayor, City Council, Sheriff, School Board  |
   | members, County boards etc. any office that is held by an elected or   |
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   | At least that's what I get out of it.....I'm not a constitutional wiz  |
   | or a lawyer, but to me that's what if means.                           |
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</description>
    <date>2011-12-15 17:18:44</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1096148_occupy-s-nerve-center-staffed-by-soros-activists-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>internships@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>teaparty@e.teaparty.org</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1097638</id>
    <title>Re: OBL's corpse
</title>
    <description>   Body is Dover bound, should be here by now. 

   On 5/2/2011 6:35 AM, George Friedman wrote:

     Eichmann was seen alive for many months on trial before being sentenced
     to death and executed. No one wanted a monument to him so they cremated
     him. But i dont know anyone who claimed he wasnt eicjhman. No comparison
     with suddenly burying him at sea without any chance to view him which i
     doubt happened.

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Mon, 2 May 2011 06:26:07 -0500 (CDT)
     To: &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: OBL's corpse
     If body dumped at sea, which I doubt, the touch is very Adolph Eichman
     like.  The Tribe did the same thing with the Nazi's ashes. 

     We would want to photograph, DNA, fingerprint, etc. 

     His body is a crime scene and I don't see the FBI nor DOJ letting that
     happen. 
</description>
    <date>2011-05-02 13:36:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1097638_re-obl-s-corpse-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
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      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1097802</id>
    <title>Re: Thoughts on Der Spiegel?
</title>
    <description>Western experts believe that this center developed into a
sub-organization of the Defense Ministry known as the FEDAT, an acronym
for the "Department for Expanded High-Technology Applications" -- the
secret heart of Iran's nuclear weapons program. The head of that
organization is Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, 48, an officer in the Revolutionary
Guard and a professor at Tehran's Imam Hossein University.

** This kind of granularity is critical.


Reva Bhalla wrote:
&gt; Any thoughts on Der Spiegel as an outlet for Mossad or any other
&gt; intelligence agencies?  Have we seen examples of this in the past?  They
&gt; have some insane detail here (read the second half) where they claim
&gt; they've got all this access to a classified doc on Iran's nuclear
&gt; weapons program
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt;           01/25/2010
&gt; 
&gt;  
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt;   The Secret Nuclear Dossier
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt;     Intelligence from Tehran Elevates Concern in the West
&gt; 
&gt; By Dieter Bednarz, Erich Follath and Holger Stark
&gt; 
&gt; *The West has long been suspicous of Iran's nuclear program. SPIEGEL has
&gt; obtained new documents on secret tests and leadership structures that
&gt; call into question Tehran's claims to be exclusively interested in the
&gt; peaceful use of the technology.*
&gt; 
&gt; It was probably the last attempt to defuse the nuclear dispute with
&gt; Tehran without having to turn to dramatic new sanctions or military
&gt; action. The plan, devised at the White House in October, had Russian and
&gt; Chinese support and came with the seal of approval of the US president.
&gt; It was clearly a Barack Obama operation.
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; Under the plan, Iran would send a large share of its low enriched
&gt; uranium abroad, all at once, for a period of one year, receiving
&gt; internationally monitored quantities of nuclear fuel elements in return.
&gt; It was a deal that provided benefits for all sides. The Iranians would
&gt; have enough material for what they claim is their civilian nuclear
&gt; program, as well as for scientific experiments, and the world could be
&gt; assured that Tehran would not be left with enough fissile material for
&gt; its secret domestic uranium enrichment program -- and for what the West
&gt; assumes is the building of a nuclear bomb.
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt;         PHOTO GALLERY
&gt; 
&gt;     * &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;
&gt;     * &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;
&gt;     * &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; 3  Photos
&gt; *Photo Gallery:* Iran's Nuclear Program
&gt; &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; Tehran's leaders initially agreed to the proposal "in principle." But
&gt; for weeks they put off the international community with vague allusions
&gt; to a "final response," and when that response finally materialized, it
&gt; came in the form of a "counter-proposal." Under this proposal, Tehran
&gt; insisted that the exchange could not take place all at once, but only in
&gt; stages, and that the material would not be sent abroad. Instead, Tehran
&gt; wanted the exchange to take place in Iran.
&gt; 
&gt; Once again, the Iranian leadership has rebuffed the West with phony
&gt; promises of its willingness to compromise. The government in Tehran
&gt; officially rejected the nuclear exchange plan last Tuesday. To make
&gt; matters worse, after the West's discovery of a secret uranium enrichment
&gt; plant near Qom, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad defiantly announced that
&gt; he would never give in, and in fact would build 10 more enrichment
&gt; plants instead.
&gt; 
&gt; *Highly Volatile Material*
&gt; 
&gt; But officials in Washington and European capitals are currently not as
&gt; concerned about these cocky, unrealistic announcements as they are about
&gt; intelligence reports based on sources within Iran and information from
&gt; high-ranking defectors. The new information, say American experts, will
&gt; likely prompt the US government to reassess the risks coming from the
&gt; mullah-controlled country in the coming days and raise the alarm level
&gt; from yellow to red. Skeptics who in the past, sometimes justifiably so,
&gt; treated alarmist reports as Israeli propaganda, are also extremely
&gt; worried. They include the experts from the United Nations International
&gt; Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whose goal is prevent the spread of nuclear
&gt; weapons.
&gt; 
&gt; After an extensive internal investigation, IAEA officials concluded that
&gt; a computer obtained from Iran years ago contains highly volatile
&gt; material. The laptop reached the Americans through Germany's foreign
&gt; intelligence agency, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), and was then
&gt; passed on to the IAEA in Vienna.
&gt; 
&gt; Reports by Ali Reza Asgari, Iran's former deputy defense minister who
&gt; managed to defect to the United States, where he was given a new
&gt; identity, proved to be just as informative. Nuclear scientist Shahram
&gt; Amiri, who "disappeared" during a pilgrimage to Mecca in June 2009, is
&gt; also believed to have particularly valuable information. The Iranian
&gt; authorities accused Saudi Arabia and the United States of kidnapping the
&gt; expert, but it is more likely that he defected.
&gt; 
&gt; Iran's government has come under pressure as a result of the new
&gt; charges. They center on the question of who exactly is responsible for
&gt; the country's nuclear program -- and what this says about its true
&gt; nature. The government has consistently told the IAEA that the only
&gt; agency involved in uranium enrichment is the National Energy Council,
&gt; and that its work was exclusively dedicated to the peaceful use of the
&gt; technology.
&gt; 
&gt; But if the claims are true that have been made in an intelligence
&gt; dossier currently under review in diplomatic circles in Washington,
&gt; Vienna, Tel Aviv and Berlin, portions of which SPIEGEL has obtained,
&gt; this is a half-truth at best.
&gt; 
&gt; According to the classified document, there is a secret military branch
&gt; of Iran's nuclear research program that answers to the Defense Ministry
&gt; and has clandestine structures. The officials who have read the dossier
&gt; conclude that the government in Tehran is serious about developing a
&gt; bomb, and that its plans are well advanced. There are two names that
&gt; appear again and again in the documents, particularly in connection with
&gt; the secret weapons program: Kamran Daneshjoo and Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.
&gt; 
&gt; *Secret Heart of Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program*
&gt; 
&gt; Daneshjoo, 52, Iran's new minister of science, research and technology,
&gt; is also responsible for the country's nuclear energy agency, and he is
&gt; seen as a close ally of Ahmadinejad. Opposition leaders say he is a
&gt; hardliner who was partly responsible for the apparently rigged
&gt; presidential election in June. Daneshjoo's biography includes only
&gt; marginal references to his possible nuclear expertise. In describing
&gt; himself, the man with the steely-gray beard writes that he studied
&gt; engineering in the British city of Manchester, and then spent several
&gt; years working at a Tehran "Center for Aviation Technology." Western
&gt; experts believe that this center developed into a sub-organization of
&gt; the Defense Ministry known as the FEDAT, an acronym for the "Department
&gt; for Expanded High-Technology Applications" -- the secret heart of Iran's
&gt; nuclear weapons program. The head of that organization is Mohsen
&gt; Fakhrizadeh, 48, an officer in the Revolutionary Guard and a professor
&gt; at Tehran's Imam Hossein University.
&gt; 
&gt; Western intelligence agencies believe that although the nuclear energy
&gt; agency and the FEDAT compete in some areas, they have agreed to a
&gt; division of labor on the central issue of nuclear weapons research, with
&gt; the nuclear agency primarily supervising uranium enrichment while the
&gt; FEDAT is involved in the construction of a nuclear warhead to be used in
&gt; Iran's Shahab missiles. Experts believe that Iran's scientists could
&gt; produce a primitive, truck-sized version of the bomb this year, but that
&gt; it would have to be compressed to a size that would fit into a nuclear
&gt; warhead to yield the strategic threat potential that has Israel and the
&gt; West so alarmed -- and that they could reach that stage by sometime
&gt; between 2012 and 2014.
&gt; 
&gt; The Iranians are believed to have conducted non-nuclear tests of a
&gt; detonating mechanism for a nuclear bomb more than six years ago. The
&gt; challenge in the technology is to uniformly ignite the conventional
&gt; explosives surrounding the uranium core -- which is needed to produce
&gt; the desired chain reaction. It is believed that the test series was
&gt; conducted with a warhead encased in aluminum. In other words, everything
&gt; but the core was "real." According to the reports, the Tehran engineers
&gt; used thin fibers and a measuring circuit board in place of the fissile
&gt; material. This enabled them to measure the shock waves and photograph
&gt; flashes that simulate the detonation of a nuclear bomb with some degree
&gt; of accuracy. The results were apparently so encouraging that the Iranian
&gt; government has since classified the technology as "feasible."
&gt; 
&gt; SPIEGEL obtained access to a FEDAT organizational chart and a list of
&gt; the names of scientists working for the agency. The Vienna-based IAEA
&gt; also has these documents, but the Iranian president claims that they are
&gt; forged and are being used to discredit his country. After reporting two
&gt; years ago that the Iranians had frozen their nuclear weapons research in
&gt; 2003, the CIA and other intelligence agencies will probably paint a
&gt; significantly more sobering scenario just as the UN Security Council is
&gt; considering tougher sanctions against Iran.
&gt; 
&gt; *Mulling Sanctions*
&gt; 
&gt; When France assumes the Council's rotating chairmanship in February,
&gt; Washington could push for a showdown. While Moscow is not ruling out
&gt; additional punitive measures, China, which has negotiated billions in
&gt; energy deals with Iran, is more likely to block such measures.
&gt; 
&gt; China could, however, approve "smart" sanctions, such as travel
&gt; restrictions for senior members of the Revolutionary Guard and nuclear
&gt; scientists. Fakhrizadeh is already on a list of officials subject to
&gt; such restrictions, and Daneshjoo could well be added in the future.
&gt; 
&gt; But the West would presumably be on its own when enforcing sanctions
&gt; that would be truly harmful to Iran -- and to its own, profitable trade
&gt; relations with Tehran. The most effective trade weapon would be a fuel
&gt; embargo. Because of a lack of refinery capacity Iran, which has the
&gt; world's second-largest oil reserves, imports almost half of the gasoline
&gt; it uses. Sanctions would trigger a sharp rise in the price of gasoline,
&gt; inevitably leading to social unrest. Experts are divided over whether it
&gt; would be directed against the unpopular regime or if the country's
&gt; leaders could once again inflame the Iranian people against the "evil West."
&gt; 
&gt; This leaves the military option. Apart from the political consequences
&gt; and the possibility of counter-attacks, bombing Iran's nuclear
&gt; facilities would be extremely difficult. The nuclear experts have
&gt; literally buried themselves and their facilities underground, in
&gt; locations that would be virtually impossible to reach with conventional
&gt; weapons.
&gt; 
&gt; While even Israeli experts are skeptical over how much damage bombing
&gt; the facilities could do to the nuclear program, the normally levelheaded
&gt; US General David Petraeus sounded downright belligerent when asked
&gt; whether the Iranian nuclear facilities could be attacked militarily.
&gt; "Well, they certainly can be bombed," he said just two weeks ago in
&gt; Washington.
&gt; 
&gt; /Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan/
&gt; 
</description>
    <date>2010-01-25 19:42:32</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-11 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1097802_re-thoughts-on-der-spiegel-.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
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      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1097811</id>
    <title>[alpha] Blowback
</title>
    <description>FBI sees retaliation attacks in CONUS 

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2011-05-02 05:22:49</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1097811_-alpha-blowback-.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1099041</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION - New EU Commission
</title>
    <description>   I had chatted with Marko over the phone on this because the Russians were
   chatting about it constantly while I was in Moscow.
   The Russians are ecstatic that the Germans have the energy portfolio.
   First off, Oettinger is pretty pro-Russian in his energy ideas and has
   relationships throughout Moscow. Also, he is weak enough that he'll bend
   to Merkel on most items, but all other things can be easily bought by
   Moscow.

   Marko Papic wrote:

     Ok, so the new EU Commission has been announced.

     What is the relevance of this EU Commission? Well for one, the Germans
     and the French have LOCKED DOWN the two key posts: internal market and
     energy!  How did they do this? By brilliant manuvering. They gave the
     Poles the EP Presidency, which Warsaw thought was uber important but is
     mainly ceremonial. That was the first key EU post and they gave it to
     the Poles first, who bought it like crazy. Then they got UK out of EU's
     internal business by giving London the FM post. This was not as "cheap"
     as the EP President, BUT it gave the post to a relative unknown Brit who
     is from Labor and now owes her relevancy completely to the EU.

     BRILLIANT.

     Here are the next steps:

       * 11-19 Jan. 2010: Hearings with the newly-nominated commissioners
         in the European Parliament.
       * 26 Jan. 2010: Final vote of the European Parliament on the full
         Commission (9.00-11.00 debate in plenary; 11.00-12.00 political
         group meetings; 12.00-13.00 vote in plenary). 
       * 1 Feb. 2010: New Commission expected to take office.
     Entire line up (my comments in orange):

     The appointments in full:

       * Jose Manuel Barroso (Portugal): President With Van Rompuy as EU
         President, Barroso still retains power. Imagine if Blair was EU
         President. It would be Barroso who?
       * Joaquin Almunia (Spain): Competition  According to EU sources, he is
         loyal to Barroso (makes sense, they are Iberian). He is also a bad
         ass. Expect him to take member states to court if he deems they are
         being protectionist. Will piss off Berlin and Paris for sure.
       * Catherine Ashton (UK): Foreign Affairs High Representative As I
         said, this was a great choice for Berlin and Paris. They get UK off
         of their hands with a post that will not let UK meddle in EU
         internal affairs.
       * Michel Barnier (France): Internal Market and Services BOOM. This
         shows how RETARDED Brown is. He installed a relative unknown who may
         go "native" into the FM post and gave up the internal market and
         services to the FRENCH!!! The City of London is PISSED.
       * Olli Rehn (Finland): Economic and Monetary Affairs Former
         Enlargement guy gets this post, also loyal to Barroso, will
         undoubtedly piss off Berlin and Paris.
       * Dacian Ciolos (Romania): Agriculture
       * John Dalli (Malta): Health and Consumer Policy Wow... granted, the
         Maltese are super health conscious, so if you're Monsanto or
         Sagenta, you are NOT happy.
       * Karel De Gucht (Belgium): Trade
       * Stefan Fu:le (Czech Republic): Enlargement This was something that
         was discussed. A new member state gets the enlargement portfolio.
         Nice compromise here as well, since Prague is not as crazy about
         Ukraine/Georgia
       * Connie Hedegaard (Denmark): Climate Action Denmark gets climate
         action, poignant.
       * Maire Geoghegan-Quinn (Ireland): Research and Innovation
       * Janusz Lewandowski (Poland): Budget/Financial Programming
       * Guenther Oettinger (Germany): Energy HUUUUUGE... Germany gets a key
         post and screws Central Europeans completely
       * Janez Potocnik (Slovenia): Environment Slovenians got on the whole
         "green" bandwaggon first, so this is cute.
       * Neelie Kroes (Netherlands): Digital Agenda
       * Laszlo Andor (Hungary): Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion Oh
         God... Hungarians in charge of employment...
       * Maria Damanaki (Greece): Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Makes sense.
       * Johannes Hahn (Austria): Regional Policy Tame choice.
       * Rumiana Jeleva (Bulgaria): International Cooperation, Humanitarian
         Aid and Crisis Response
       * Siim Kallas (Estonia): Transport
       * Cecilia Malmstro:m (Sweden): Home Affairs
       * Andris Piebalgs (Latvia): Development
       * Viviane Reding (Luxembourg): Justice, Fundamental Rights and
         Citizenship
       * Algirdas Semeta (Lithuania): Taxation and Customs Union
       * Antonio Tajani (Italy): Industry and Entrepreneurship This is
         usually the DG that fights with all the free market DGs, so Italian
         running it is a key.
       * Androulla Vassiliou (Cyprus): Education, Culture, Multilingualism
         and Youth  
       * Maros Sefcovic (Slovakia): Interinstitutional Relations and
         Administration

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-11-29 17:19:27</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-24 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1099041_re-discussion-new-eu-commission-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1099190</id>
    <title>DISCUSSION - New EU Commission
</title>
    <description>   Resending

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "analysts" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, November 28, 2009 11:00:04 AM GMT -06:00 Central America
   Subject: DISCUSSION - New EU Commission

   Ok, so the new EU Commission has been announced.

   What is the relevance of this EU Commission? Well for one, the Germans and
   the French have LOCKED DOWN the two key posts: internal market and
   energy!  How did they do this? By brilliant manuvering. They gave the
   Poles the EP Presidency, which Warsaw thought was uber important but is
   mainly ceremonial. That was the first key EU post and they gave it to the
   Poles first, who bought it like crazy. Then they got UK out of EU's
   internal business by giving London the FM post. This was not as "cheap" as
   the EP President, BUT it gave the post to a relative unknown Brit who is
   from Labor and now owes her relevancy completely to the EU.

   BRILLIANT.

   Here are the next steps:

     * 11-19 Jan. 2010: Hearings with the newly-nominated commissioners
       in the European Parliament.
     * 26 Jan. 2010: Final vote of the European Parliament on the full
       Commission (9.00-11.00 debate in plenary; 11.00-12.00 political group
       meetings; 12.00-13.00 vote in plenary). 
     * 1 Feb. 2010: New Commission expected to take office.
   Entire line up (my comments in orange):

   The appointments in full:

     * JosA(c) Manuel Barroso (Portugal): President With Van Rompuy as EU
       President, Barroso still retains power. Imagine if Blair was EU
       President. It would be Barroso who?
     * Joaquin Almunia (Spain): Competition  According to EU sources, he is
       loyal to Barroso (makes sense, they are Iberian). He is also a bad
       ass. Expect him to take member states to court if he deems they are
       being protectionist. Will piss off Berlin and Paris for sure.
     * Catherine Ashton (UK): Foreign Affairs High Representative As I said,
       this was a great choice for Berlin and Paris. They get UK off of their
       hands with a post that will not let UK meddle in EU internal affairs.
     * Michel Barnier (France): Internal Market and Services BOOM. This shows
       how RETARDED Brown is. He installed a relative unknown who may go
       "native" into the FM post and gave up the internal market and services
       to the FRENCH!!! The City of London is PISSED.
     * Olli Rehn (Finland): Economic and Monetary Affairs Former Enlargement
       guy gets this post, also loyal to Barroso, will undoubtedly piss off
       Berlin and Paris.
     * Dacian Ciolos (Romania): Agriculture
     * John Dalli (Malta): Health and Consumer Policy Wow... granted, the
       Maltese are super health conscious, so if you're Monsanto or Sagenta,
       you are NOT happy.
     * Karel De Gucht (Belgium): Trade
     * Stefan FA 1/4le (Czech Republic): Enlargement This was something that
       was discussed. A new member state gets the enlargement portfolio. Nice
       compromise here as well, since Prague is not as crazy about
       Ukraine/Georgia
     * Connie Hedegaard (Denmark): Climate Action Denmark gets climate
       action, poignant.
     * Maire Geoghegan-Quinn (Ireland): Research and Innovation
     * Janusz Lewandowski (Poland): Budget/Financial Programming
     * Guenther Oettinger (Germany): Energy HUUUUUGE... Germany gets a key
       post and screws Central Europeans completely
     * Janez Potocnik (Slovenia): Environment Slovenians got on the whole
       "green" bandwaggon first, so this is cute.
     * Neelie Kroes (Netherlands): Digital Agenda
     * LA!szlA^3 Andor (Hungary): Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion Oh
       God... Hungarians in charge of employment...
     * Maria Damanaki (Greece): Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Makes sense.
     * Johannes Hahn (Austria): Regional Policy Tame choice.
     * Rumiana Jeleva (Bulgaria): International Cooperation, Humanitarian Aid
       and Crisis Response
     * Siim Kallas (Estonia): Transport
     * Cecilia MalmstrAP:m (Sweden): Home Affairs
     * Andris Piebalgs (Latvia): Development
     * Viviane Reding (Luxembourg): Justice, Fundamental Rights and
       Citizenship
     * Algirdas AA emeta (Lithuania): Taxation and Customs Union
     * Antonio Tajani (Italy): Industry and Entrepreneurship This is usually
       the DG that fights with all the free market DGs, so Italian running it
       is a key.
     * Androulla Vassiliou (Cyprus): Education, Culture, Multilingualism and
       Youth  
     * Maros Sefcovic (Slovakia): Interinstitutional Relations and
       Administration
</description>
    <date>2009-11-30 18:11:37</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-24 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1099190_discussion-new-eu-commission-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1100512</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - World Crude Steel Production - (via) CN65
</title>
    <description>   **Report sent by CN65

   SOURCE: CN65 (via CN65)
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator working in PNG
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

   World Crude Steel Production

   The Latest data from The World Steel Association shows a 1% decline in
   global
   crude steel production in December 2010 on the previous month total was
   116.2 Mt,
   which was however 8.4 Mt higher than in the same month in 2009.

   I think this fairly suggests that the Global recovery since The GFC is
   well
   on track and it is not 'just' China.

   Total global crude steel production in 2010 was 1,395.5 Mt, 15% higher
   than
   in the previous year which is a big number except for the fact that the
   GFC forced a very significant reduction pretty much everywhere
   'except for China'

   Month-on-month increases were seen in the majority of steel producing
   regions including the US (+0.3 Mt to 6.7 Mt), China (+1.4 Mt to 51.5
   Mt) and Japan (+0.2 Mt to 9.2 Mt). However in the EU, production fell
   from the previous month (-1.7 to 13.0 Mt).

   German Imports of Iron Ore Drop to 3.46 Mt in November German imports of
   iron ore dropped 17% month-on-month in November to 3.46 Mt BUT this took
   the January to November 2010 total in German to 39.48 Mt, 10.66 Mt higher
   that in the same period of 2009 when Germany and others were still
   recovering from The GFC.

   Obviously as WW steel production continues to increase then demand
   for Ore and Coking coal remains strong and continues to expand 'ahead'
   of Physical supply and therefore keeps these commodity prices trending
   higher at a time when total DWCC for its carriage continues to
   grow ahead of Physical export volumes which forces dry bulk freight
   rates to trend lower, even with extraordinary factors of Congestion
   (and slow steaming) and additional tonne miles through longer haul
   which fo however reduce DWCC availability.

   Having said this, I still say 'watch out' for a significant recovery in
   druy bulk rates 'led by capers' then flowing down into Panamax resp
   Supramax sizes once the current unsustainably low levels have been
   rationailsed by this market and DWCC supply having been redistributed
   (Including layups - especially Capers) and the equation reset in Owners
   favour, albeit that any bounce will be relatively short lived and have
   a limited upside for Capers, panamax, Supramax, high/lows for Handies
   remaining relatively stable for reasons previously explained.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-01-24 20:22:32</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1100512_insight-world-crude-steel-production-via-cn65-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
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      <tag><name>reginald.thompson@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1100541</id>
    <title>RE: Obama transcript on terrorism---buck stops with ME
</title>
    <description>
One other point.  

Threat investigation is an art, but there is no single govt agency
responsible.  It depends upon the nature of the threat.  So, the many cooks
in the kitchen have to figure out who takes the lead in DC, but the
originator of the threat reporting can run with the ball and direct his
agent colleagues to take action in other posts.  This was a very routine
matter done 5-6 times a day, back on my watch.  The inability to know who
has the lead, provides the vacuum to be filled by those taking action in the
field.  

For example, here are the various threats and the lead agencies to
investigate:  

POTUS, VPOTUS - USSS
SecState, Embassies - State/DSS
Nuclear - FBI, CIA, DOE
US Homeland - FBI, DHS 
Aviation - FBI, TSA, FAA

Clear as mudd, ain't it?  

Which is why WE would take the lead on every terror threat and run with the
ball back in the day.
 

-----Original Message-----
From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
On Behalf Of Sean Noonan
Sent: Thursday, January 07, 2010 4:34 PM
To: Analyst List
Subject: Obama transcript on terrorism---buck stops with ME

Transcript: Obama outlines steps to prevent terrorism January 7, 2010 --
Updated 2229 GMT (0629 HKT) President Obama says the United States "will not
succumb to a siege mentality that sacrifices the open society."
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/POLITICS/01/07/transcript.obama.terror.report/in
dex.html?iref=24hours

Washington (CNN) -- President Obama on Thursday discussed the results of the
reviews he requested after the botched Christmas terrorist attack. 
Here is a transcript of his speech.

Obama: Good afternoon, everybody.

The immediate reviews that I ordered after the failed Christmas terrorist
attack are now complete. I was just briefed on the findings and
recommendations for reform, and I believe it's important that the American
people understand the new steps that we're taking to prevent attacks and
keep our country safe.

This afternoon my counterterrorism and homeland security adviser, John
Brennan, will discuss his review into our terrorist watch list system, how
our government failed to connect the dots in a way that would have prevented
a known terrorist from boarding a plane for America, and the steps we're
going to take to prevent that from happening again.

Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano will discuss her review of
aviation screening, technology and procedures, how that terrorist boarded a
plane with explosives that could have killed nearly 300 innocent people, and
how we'll strengthen aviation security going forward.

So today I want to just briefly summarize their conclusions and the steps
that I've ordered to address them.

In our ever-changing world, America's first line of defense is timely,
accurate intelligence that is shared, integrated, analyzed and acted upon
quickly and effectively. That's what the intelligence reforms after the 9/11
attacks largely achieved. That's what our intelligence community does every
day.

But, unfortunately, that's not what happened in the lead-up to Christmas
Day. It's now clear that shortcomings occurred in three broad and
compounding ways.

First, although our intelligence community had learned a great deal about
the al Qaeda affiliate in Yemen, called al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula,
that we knew that they sought to strike the United States and that they were
recruiting operatives to do so, the intelligence community did not
aggressively follow up on and prioritize particular streams of intelligence
related to a possible attack against the homeland.

Second, this contributed to a larger failure of analysis, a failure to
connect the dots of intelligence that existed across our intelligence
community and which together could have revealed that [Umar Farouk]
AbdulMutallab was planning an attack.

Third, this in turn fed into shortcomings in the watch-listing system which
resulted in this person not being placed on the no-fly list, thereby
allowing him to board that plane in Amsterdam for Detroit.

In sum, the U.S. government had the information scattered throughout the
system to potentially uncover this plot and disrupt the attack. Rather than
a failure to collect or share intelligence, this was a failure to connect
and understand the intelligence that we already had.

Now, that's why we took swift action in the immediate days following
Christmas, including reviewing and updating the terrorist watch list system
and adding more individuals to the no-fly list, and directing our embassies
and consulates to include current visa information in their warnings of
individuals with terrorist or suspected terrorist ties.

Today, I'm directing a series of additional corrective steps across multiple
agencies. Broadly speaking, they fall into four areas.

First, I'm directing that our intelligence community immediately begin
assigning specific responsibility for investigating all leads on
high-priority threats so that these leads are pursued and acted upon
aggressively not just most of the time, but all of the time.

We must follow the leads that we get, and we must pursue them until plots
are disrupted. And that means assigning clear lines of responsibility.

Second, I'm directing that intelligence reports, especially those involving
potential threats to the United States, be distributed more rapidly and more
widely. We can't sit on information that could protect the American people.

Third, I'm directing that we strengthen the analytical process, how our
analysis -- how our analysts process and integrate the intelligence that
they receive.

My director of national intelligence, Denny Blair, will take the lead in
improving our day-to-day efforts. My Intelligence Advisory Board will
examine the longer term challenge of sifting through vast universes of
-- of intelligence and data in our information age.

And, finally, I'm ordering an immediate effort to strengthen the criteria
used to add individuals to our terrorist watch lists, especially the no-fly
list. We must do better in keeping dangerous people off airplanes, while
still facilitating air travel.

So taken together, these reforms will improve the intelligence community's
ability to collect, share, integrate, analyze and act on intelligence
swiftly and effectively.

In short, they will help our intelligence community do its job even better
and protect American lives.

But even the best intelligence can't identify in advance every individual
who would do us harm.

So we need the security at our airports, ports, and borders and through our
partnerships with other nations to prevent terrorists from entering America.

At the Amsterdam airport, AbdulMutallab was subjected to the same screening
as other passengers. He was required to show his documents, including a
valid U.S. visa. His carry-on bag was X-rayed. He passed through a metal
detector.

But a metal detector can't detect the kind of explosives that were sewn into
his clothes. As Secretary Napolitano will explain, the screening
technologies that might have detected these explosives are in use at the
Amsterdam airport but not at the specific checkpoints that he passed
through.

Indeed, most airports in the world and in the United States do not yet have
these technologies.

Now, there's no silver bullet to securing the thousands of flights into
America each day, domestic and international. It will require significant
investments in many areas. And that's why, even before the Christmas attack,
we increased investments in homeland security and aviation security.

This includes an additional $1 billion in new systems and technologies that
we need to protect our airports, more baggage screening, more passenger
screening, and more advanced explosive detection capabilities, including
those that can improve our ability to detect the kind of explosive used on
Christmas.

These are major investments, and they'll make our skies safer and more
secure.

Now, as I announced this week, we've taken a whole range of steps to improve
aviation screening and security since Christmas, including new rules for how
we handle visas within the government and enhanced screening for passengers
flying from or through certain countries.

And today, I am directing that the Department of Homeland Security take
additional steps, including strengthening our international partnerships to
improve aviation screening and security around the world, greater use of the
advanced explosive detection technologies that we already have, including
imaging technology, and working aggressively in cooperation with the
Department of Energy and our national labs to develop and deploy the next
generation of screening technologies.

Now, there is, of course, no foolproof solution. As we develop new screening
technologies and procedures, our adversaries will seek new ways to evade
them, as was shown by the Christmas attack. In the never-ending race to
protect our country, we have to stay one step ahead of a nimble adversary.
That's what these steps are designed to do, and we will continue to work
with Congress to ensure that our intelligence, homeland security, and law
enforcement communities have the resources they need to keep the American
people safe.

I ordered these two immediate reviews so that we could take immediate action
to secure our country. But in the weeks and months ahead, we will continue a
sustained and intensive effort of analysis and assessment so we leave no
stone unturned in seeking better ways to protect the American people.

I have repeatedly made it clear in public with the American people and in
private with my national security team that I will hold my staff, our
agencies and the people in them accountable when they fail to perform their
responsibilities at the highest levels.

Now, at this stage in the review process it appears that this incident was
not the fault of a single individual or organization, but rather a systemic
failure across organizations and agencies.

That's why, in addition to the corrective efforts that I've ordered, I've
directed agency heads to establish internal accountability reviews and
directed my national security staff to monitor their efforts.

We will measure progress, and John Brennan will report back to me within 30
days and on a regular basis after that.

All of these agencies and their leaders are responsible for implementing
these reforms, and all will be held accountable if they don't.

Moreover, I am less interested in passing out blame than I am in learning
from and correcting these mistakes to make us safer, for ultimately the buck
stops with me. As president, I have a solemn responsibility to protect our
nation and our people, and when the system fails, it is my responsibility.

Over the past two weeks, we've been reminded again of the challenge we face
in protecting our country against a foe that is bent on our destruction. And
while passions and politics can often obscure the hard work before us, let's
be clear about what this moment demands.

We are at war. We are at war against al Qaeda, a far-reaching network of
violence and hatred that attacked us on 9/11, that killed nearly 3,000
innocent people, and that is plotting to strike us again. And we will do
whatever it takes to defeat them.

And we've made progress. Al Qaeda's leadership is hunkered down. We have
worked closely with partners, including Yemen, to inflict major blows
against al Qaeda leaders. And we have disrupted plots at home and abroad and
saved American lives.

And we know that the vast majority of Muslims reject al Qaeda. But it is
clear that al Qaeda increasingly seeks to recruit individuals without known
terrorist affiliations, not just in the Middle East but in Africa and other
places, to do their bidding.

That's why I've directed my national security team to develop a strategy
that addresses the unique challenges posed by lone recruits. And that's why
we must communicate clearly to Muslims around the world that al Qaeda offers
nothing except a bankrupt vision of misery and death, including the murder
of fellow Muslims, while the United States stands with those who seek
justice and progress.

To advance that progress we've sought new beginnings with Muslim communities
around the world, one in which we engage on the basis of mutual interest and
mutual respect and work together to fulfill the aspirations that all people
share -- to get an education, to work with dignity, to live in peace and
security.

That's what America believes in. That's the vision that is far more powerful
than the hatred of these violent extremists.

Here at home, we will strengthen our defenses, but we will not succumb to a
siege mentality that sacrifices the open society and liberties and values
that we cherish as Americans, because great and proud nations don't hunker
down and hide behind walls of suspicion and mistrust. That is exactly what
our adversaries want. And so long as I am president, we will never hand them
that victory.

We will define the character of our country, not some band of small men
intent on killing innocent men, women and children.

And in this cause, every one of us -- every American, every elected official
-- can do our part. Instead of giving in to cynicism and division, let's
move forward with the confidence and optimism and unity that defines us as a
people, for now is not a time for partisanship, it's a time for citizenship,
a time to come together and work together with the seriousness of purpose
that our national security demands.

That's what it means to be strong in the face of violent extremism. 
That's how we will prevail in this fight. And that's how we will protect our
country and pass it, safer and stronger, to the next generation.

Thanks very much.

--
Sean Noonan
Research Intern
Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-01-08 00:35:26</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-21 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1100541_re-obama-transcript-on-terrorism-buck-stops-with-me-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1101321</id>
    <title>Re: Albania
</title>
    <description>   Good insight. He put some thought into this.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;, "Marko Papic"
   &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, January 25, 2011 6:09:57 PM
   Subject: Albania

   From TrapWire in response to Marko's questions --
    

   Fred -- Just in. Haven't had time to give a good scrub/spell check etc. so
   might be a bit raw. (His English is excellent, but not perfect).  M

   ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
      

    

    

    

               1. Any thoughts on what repercussions unrest in Albania could
   have for the region as a whole?

    

               Instability in Albania generally means instability within the
   Albanian diaspora in the region.

    

   A.         Kosova: Just came out of general elections and is now facing an
   internal crises . The winning party does not have enough votes to elect a
   PM or create a new government. At the same time, the leadership of the
   winning party has been accused for war crimes and trafficking in human
   organs by a Swiss reporter. These issues have endangered the current
   political process towards Kosovo independence. Negotiations with Serbia
   are now on hold. An unstable political situation in Albania will be a big
   loss for Kosovo. Kosovo has no representation in international
   institutions and Albania is her biggest supporter and ally regarding
   Kosovo foreign policy.  A crisis in Albania will make the dialogue between
   Kosovo and Serbia, which is seeking a division of northern Kosovo.

    

   A.         Macedonia: Our neighboring country has a population of 30%
   Albanians, who have been in constant conflict with the Macedonian
   government regarding their rights as a minority. Macedonian-Albanians are
   divided in to two groups:  one that is more liberal and has assimilated
   into Macedonian society; and the other a much more radical group that is
   in conflict Macedonian policies. Add to this Macedonia's on-going conflict
   with Greece, and one could speculate that any major crisis in Albania will
   only compound the problems inside Macedonia -- particularly for those
   Albanians seeking greater rights inside Macedonia. There is a precedence
   for this problem during the 1997 conflict in Albania.

    

   A.         Greece: Our only neighboring country with EU membership is
   still going through a very bad political and economic crises itself. There
   are almost 1.5 million Albanians living in Greece -- many are illegal
   immigrants working illegally. Another crises in Albania could likely fuel
   another mass exodus to Greece (and Italy) -- particularly now that
   Albanians can finally travel without visas in Europe.   

    

   2.  After 1997 anarchy, weapons flowed across the borders to Kosovo and
   Macedonia. Any chance that another crisis has an effect on neighboring
   countries?

    

               In my opinion, it is unlikely the current situation will
   deteriorate to the point of 1997, which was fueled by economic collapse
   rather than only political differences. Albanians still have strong
   memories and feelings about this period, and would likely try to avoid a
   repeata*|particularly as the only groups who will profit from another
   crises would be the weapons, drugs, and fuel traffickers .

          

    

               3.  What is Berisha's role in neighboring Kosovo and
   Macedonia. Does he have influence with Kosovo leadership? Or Macedonian
   Albanian leadership?

    

               Generally speaking, Berisha does not have much of a role in
   the region. He continues to be viewed as a model of the old leadership.
   Clearly, Kosovo will always          need the support of the Albanian PM
   and his government; however, many Kosovars remember that Berisha gave only
   lukewarm support to the KLA, and was   believed to have profited
   personally by allowing fuel shipments into Serbia and Montenegro, despite
   the NATO embargo at the time. Berisha is still viewed as            
   having too close of ties to Serbia -- one of his closest contacts is Damir
   Fasllic, a character who is believed to have contacts at the highest
   levels of the Serbian           government. Berisha does not appear to
   have particularly strong ties to Macedonia and, with the loss of
   Jukanovic, probably has limited influence in Montenegro as          well

            

    

                4.  If there is a change in government to Edvin Rama, would
   it in any way change the situation in Albania or region?

    

               Edvin Rama is the leader of the Albanian opposition Socialist
   Party -- which represents about 50 % of the Albanian voters. Rama is known
   as a head-strong and       somewhat radical figure amongst the
   international community in Albania. He is not very good at dialoguing --
   often creating situations that neither side can win.           Despite
   these weaknesses, Rama represents the "modern" leader that many Albanians
   have been hoping for since 1990. His work in modernizing and cleaning-up
               the capital has made him very popular, and given him the image
   of someone who can get things done for the people (He has twice been
   re-elected as mayor).          Rama's popularity and modern thinking has
   been commented on favorably by many EU leaders and representatives.

    

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-01-26 01:17:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1101321_re-albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1101457</id>
    <title>continuation of insinuating reva sleeps with sources
</title>
    <description>(17:09) Bayless Parsley: you have been the latam analyst for like two 
seconds
(17:10) Bayless Parsley: how the fuck did you get all this
(17:10) Reva Bhalla: coffee  
(17:10) Bayless Parsley: so that's what they're calling it these days, huh
(17:10) Reva Bhalla: haha
(17:10) Reva Bhalla: shut the hell up
(17:10) Bayless Parsley: amazing
(17:12) Bayless Parsley: it's a good thing G doesn't want you as the new 
africa analyst
(17:12) Bayless Parsley: risk of AIDS is too high
(17:12) Reva Bhalla: OMG
(17:12) Reva Bhalla: BAYLESS
(17:12) Reva Bhalla: FUCKING
(17:12) Reva Bhalla: PARSLEY
(17:12) Bayless Parsley: ????
(17:12) Bayless Parsley: i'm talking about if you have an open cut
(17:12) Bayless Parsley: and your source, also has an open cut
(17:12) Bayless Parsley: and you accidentally bump into him with open cuts!!
(17:13) Reva Bhalla: haha i hate you
</description>
    <date>2010-02-11 00:13:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 02:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1101457_continuation-of-insinuating-reva-sleeps-with-sources-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1102490</id>
    <title>[EastAsia] INSIGHT - CHINA - Growth - (via) CN65
</title>
    <description>   **Source is actually an Ernst &amp; Young Analyst writing to CN65.  Nothing
   ground-breaking, but confirmation of what we already know.

   SOURCE: CN65 (via CN65)
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator working in PNG
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2/3
   DISTRIBUTION: EA, Econ
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

   Some things about Chinese growth figures:

   -  they are a bit dodgy, because regional economies are told that they
   need, say, 10% growth, and voila, they report 10% growth
   -  statistics are still not accurate. for example, in 2007 (i think) the
   Chinese decided that its economy was suddenly 16% larger than what they
   thought it was.  The reporting of services sector output is still a bit
   dodgy
   -  i think the best way to forecast Chinese growth is from the supply
   side - ie. to look at their potential growth rate in terms of Labour Force
   growth + Productivity Growth = GDP and then have a think about the risks
   around that.  I always recommended a wide variance around China's growth
   forecast because the whole show could fall over because of the massive
   misallocations in the market (eg.  investment is directed at only certain
   industries, the exchange rate is held low to promote exports, interest
   rates are held at different levels in different industry sectors etc etc).
   -  So, until about 2015, you will see a continuation of the massive
   labour force growth (peasants coming in from the farms).  That said, wages
   and inflation are slowly starting to rise.   While labour productivity is
   still strong, capital productivity is starting to decline as China
   inevitably becomes a capital rich developed country.  The upshot is that
   10% is the absolute max that China can now grow given the current
   structure
   of the economy.  I would expect China to grow between 8-10% until 2015,
   then things will switch from the export sector to domestic demand,
   particularly as China commit to the pension reforms that will allow the
   people to spend more of their money (at the moment savings is 50% of
   GDP!!!!!).

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-01-24 14:09:16</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1102490_-eastasia-insight-china-growth-via-cn65-.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>econ@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1102505</id>
    <title>Feedback - Re: Albania - New Protests Planned
</title>
    <description>&gt;From TrapWire --

I've sent this along for comments from my contacts over there. At first glance, appears to be the usual heavy-handed analysis the Serbs do of anything Albanian.
(I'm always a little leery of anything written by a Serbo news source when it comes to Albania, Kosovo of Bosnia....and vice-versa).   Mike

-----Original Message-----

&gt;
&gt;
&gt; *Albanian opposition calls for new protests, PD to hold anti-violence
&gt; rally*
&gt;
&gt; *http://www.emportal.rs/en/news/region/145049.html*
&gt;
&gt; * *
&gt;
&gt; 24. January 2011. | 07:39
&gt; http://www.emportal.rs/img/red-blue-arrow.gif08:24
&gt;
&gt; Source: Tanjug
&gt;
&gt; *Albanian opposition leader Edvin Rama called on his supporters on
&gt; Sunday to gather for a new peaceful protest on Friday. Berisha has
&gt; announced that his Democratic Party is going to hold an anti-violence
&gt; rally on Wednesday.*
&gt;
&gt; Albanian opposition leader Edvin Rama called on his supporters on
&gt; Sunday to gather for a new peaceful protest on Friday, a week after
&gt; the clashes between protesters and police in Tirana which claimed
&gt; three lives.
&gt;
&gt; Berisha has announced that his Democratic Party is going to hold an
&gt; anti-violence rally on Wednesday.
&gt;
&gt; Parliament Speaker Jozefina Topalli, on the other hand, said that no
&gt; one can overthrow the government through violence.
&gt;
&gt; Rama, who heads the Socialist Party of Albania, the strongest
&gt; opposition party in the country, attended Sunday the funeral of one of
&gt; the protesters killed on Friday. The protest was organized by Rama's
&gt; party, demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Sali Berisha and
&gt; early elections.
&gt;
&gt; The Democratic Party (DP) accused Edi Rama of reminding Albanians of
&gt; 1997. These comments came from the head of the Democrat Parliamentary
&gt; Group, Astrit Patozi. "Edi Rama is responsible for what happened on
&gt; Friday in Tirana," declared Ilir Meta, who accused the Chairman of the
&gt; SP of having recruited criminals for what he calls "coup d'etat". Even
&gt; Chairman of the Democratic Alliance, Neritan Ceka denounced the
&gt; violence that was used in the opposition's demonstration. Ceka
&gt; directly accused Edi Rama of organizing this scenario and of
&gt; organizing criminal groups, which would face with the police.
&gt;
&gt; "Edi Rama is the only responsible for what happened and for what did
&gt; not happen in the 'Deshmoret e Kombit" Boulevard, in front of the
&gt; Prime Minister's Office. He is the organizer of that monster
&gt; demonstration, which through an enormous express of hate, tried to
&gt; destroy the political reports that came from the citizens' free votes
&gt; with blood, guns, stones, sticks and Molotov cocktails. But the life
&gt; of every Albanian citizen is very precious. The loss of three lives is
&gt; such a great loss, and I express my deepest condolences to the
&gt; relatives of those who lost their lives on Friday for Edi Rama. Even
&gt; more serious than this is the murdering of calmness and hope of a free
&gt; society," said Astrit Patozi, Head of the Democrat Parliamentary Group.
&gt;
&gt; "Yesterday he showed his true face through the criminals that hit for
&gt; several hours the institutions and the police forces. This bastard,
&gt; who has nothing political, replaced the Socialist Party with organized
&gt; crime... He shed blood and burned Tirana on Friday, so this way, he can
&gt; give up from blackmailing the state's institutions. Neither Edi Rama
&gt; nor anyone else can take power through violence, and especially by
&gt; using his relations to organized crime," said Chairman of the
&gt; Socialist Movement for Integration (SMI), Ilir Meta.
&gt;
&gt; The "Democratic Alliance" sentenced the violence that was used on
&gt; Friday's demonstration, which was organized by the SP. This was not a
&gt; spontaneous violence; it was a political and anarchist act, which was
&gt; prepared for several weeks by the leadership of this party. The
&gt; Prosecutor's Office should identify all the authors of these attacks
&gt; and it should place them before justice. We also want the strict
&gt; inspection of every case where violence has been used unnecessarily by
&gt; the police," said Ceka.
&gt;
&gt; "The Republican Party (RP) expresses its deepest condolences to the
&gt; victims' families, and it asks all Albanian citizens, without
&gt; political distinction, to sentence these irresponsible acts of
&gt; violence. The RP calls the SP as the main opposing political force to
&gt; take its responsibilities in analyzing the events and to prevent the
&gt; repetition of similar situations, which damage all Albanians
&gt; regardless of their political inclinations. We ask the Prosecutor's
&gt; Office to carry investigations for all illegal acts carried on
&gt; Friday," said Olsi Baze, from the RP
&gt;

-- 
Ben West
Tactical Analyst
STRATFOR
Austin, TX
</description>
    <date>2011-01-24 14:54:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1102505_feedback-re-albania-new-protests-planned-.html</permalink>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1102694</id>
    <title>[alpha] Body
</title>
    <description>Airborne to CONUS

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2011-05-02 05:41:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1102694_-alpha-body-.html</permalink>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1102718</id>
    <title>[alpha] Body bound for Dover, DE on CIA plane
</title>
    <description>Than onward to the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology in Bethesda.

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2011-05-02 05:51:12</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1102718_-alpha-body-bound-for-dover-de-on-cia-plane-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1102724</id>
    <title>Re: B3* - GREECE/EU/ECON - Greek bonds fall as EU says budget deficit
	forecast unreliable
</title>
    <description>   by cheap i mean inexpensive.

   Robert Reinfrank wrote:

     Calling bullshit on their stats is a pretty cheap way to talk bond
     prices down and add pressure on Greece to reform.

     **************************
     Robert Reinfrank
     STRATFOR
     Austin, Texas
     W: +1 512 744-4110
     C: +1 310 614-1156

     On Jan 12, 2010, at 6:40 AM, Antonia Colibasanu
     &lt;colibasanu@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

       EU report released on Jan. 8 but posted today -
       http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/COM_2010_REPORT_GREEK/EN/COM_2010_REPORT_GREEK-EN.PDF

         http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&amp;sid=a_XY.hXYSyAI

         Greek Bonds Fall as EU Says Budget Deficit Forecast Unreliable
         Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A

         By Andrew Davis

         Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Greek bonds fell after the European
         Commission said there have been "severe irregularities" in the
         nation's statistical data, leaving the accuracy of the European
         Union's largest budget deficit in doubt.

         The declines drove the yield on Greece's two-year note 16 basis
         points higher, the most in almost a month, after the commission
         said in a report today "the lack of reliability and the shortage of
         evidence supporting the deficit figure reported" in two revisions
         by the government in April and October left the data "in question."
         An International Monetary Fund team arrived in Greece today to aid
         the government in its efforts to tame the deficit.

         "You have all these stories about the IMF visiting Greece, the
         European Commission and a reversal in risk appetite" hurting bonds,
         said Peter Schaffrik, an interest-rate strategist at Commerzbank
         AG in London. "A combination of these factors will weigh on Greece."

         The EU is stepping up scrutiny of Prime Minister George Papandreou's
         efforts to tame a deficit forecast to be equivalent to 12.7 percent
         of the country's gross domestic product this year, more than four
         times the region's set limit. EU President Herman van Rompuy will
         hold talks with Papandreou today, a week after an EU team spent
         three days in Athens.

         "Unless the institutional weaknesses identified in this report
         are addressed and proper checks and balances introduced, the
         reliability of Greek deficit and debt data will remain in question,"
         the EU said in its report today.

         Yield Premium

         The declines for Greek bonds drove up the extra yield investors
         demand to hold the country's 10-year notes instead of
         similar-maturity German bonds, the benchmark European securities, by
         14 basis points to 232, the highest since Jan. 4. The difference
         averaged 55 basis points over the past 10 years.

         Credit-default swaps on Greece rose 20.5 basis points to 276,
         according to CMA DataVision prices. That means it costs $276,000 a
         year to protect $10 million of the government's debt from default
         for five years.

         Papandreou's government will complete this week a new
         deficit-reduction plan that aims to cut the shortfall to within the
         EU's 3 percent limit in 2012 and avoid punishment under the EU's
         excessive-deficit procedure. The plan will be presented to the
         Brussels-based commission this month and European finance ministers
         will rule on the measures at a meeting on Feb. 15-16.

         Today's report marks the EU's latest challenge to Greek statistical
         data, after revisions in 2004 indicated the country shouldn't have
         qualified to join the euro. Greece has met the EU's deficit target
         once since joining the euro, according to Commission figures in
         November. That was in 2006, when the shortfall was 2.9 percent.

         Earlier Revisions

         "The most recent revisions are an illustration of the lack of
         quality of the Greek fiscal statistics and of Greek macroeconomic
         statistics in general and show that the progress in the compilation
         of fiscal statistics in the country, and the intense scrutiny by
         Eurostat since 2004, have not sufficed to bring the quality of Greek
         fiscal data to the level reached by other EU Member States," the
         report said.

         Concern about the government's worsening finances prompted Fitch
         Ratings, Moody's Investors Service and Standard &amp; Poor's to all cut
         the country's creditworthiness in December and fueled
         investor concern about a possible debt default.

         The difference in yield between Greek and German 10-year government
         debt widened to 276 basis points on Dec. 21, the most since March
         17.

         Greece's deficit has prompted speculation from some investors
         that the rest of the EU would save the country from default if such
         a move were necessary. The EU will support Greece's efforts to tame
         the deficit, Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero,
         who holds the EU's rotating presidency, said last week in Brussels.

         How far support from the EU or ECB would go remains unclear. ECB
         Executive Board member Juergen Stark said in a Jan. 6 interview in
         Italian newspaper Il Sole-24 Ore that "markets are deluding
         themselves" if they are counting on a bailout.

         To contact the reporter on this story: Andrew Davis in Rome at
         abdavis@bloomberg.net
         Last Updated: January 12, 2010 06:37 EST
</description>
    <date>2010-01-12 18:53:08</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2001-03-13 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1102724_re-b3-greece-eu-econ-greek-bonds-fall-as-eu-says-budget.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>robert.reinfrank@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>econ@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:econ@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1103141</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - EGYPT - Info on April 6, gov't tone on "good students"
	and bad MB, Kifaya
</title>
    <description>   information about the crackdown targeting April 6, the difference between
   April 6 and Kifaya, arrest of El Baradei supporter, the orgins of April 6
   and the observation that the government is trying to draw a distinction
   between "good students" and the bad MB (though, I have not see any
   evidence of this, but it could just be because we can't collect every
   public statement issued by the gov't using English media)

   PUBLICATION: Background/analysis
   SOURCE: RS501
   ATTRIBUTION:STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Revolutionary leader
   SOURCE  Reliability : B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2-3
   DISTRIBUTION:Analyst
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Bayless/Marko

   Bayless,

   We have just spoken with some of our friends in Egypt and have learned few
   things

    

   -          That "softening the language" about "good students" while being
   harsh on Muslim Brotherhood still is main trend [BP: This tracks with what
   Marko was saying about how he thinks Mubarak will eventually come out and
   try to embrace the 'student', aka pro-democracy groups movement, while
   saying 'baaad Islamists, bad.']

   -          That besides his announcement that he will come back and
   participate in demonstrations tomorrow El Baradei may have lost part of
   his authority due to "absence in key days" factor (the same reason why
   political opposition is not considered to be legitimate in Tunisia)

   -          That may be guy named Noor, former presidential candidate whose
   authority among protestors rises and

   -          That tomorrow MB will pull their move on streets, so it may be
   even more dramatic.

   -          We got a bit better insight among the groups and how theywe
   organizing last few days, but still look into mapping it.

   -           Regarding your question, seems that one of our friends from
   April 6, and their key men for online organizing (kind of what "David
   Plouffe was for barrack obama) Mohammed Adel, was arrested last night and
   treated brutally. Among others, who were arrested last night, was Dr.
   Mustafa Al Nagar general coordinator of the popular campaign in support of
   El Baradei. He was arrested and transferred to unknown destination.
   Knowing Egyptians, and how they were fast in moving towards
   "personalization" I expect their names to emerge in protesters and media.

    

   We have gotten, though, answers to part of your questions, as we have
   spoken to other friends in Egypt:

    

   [the following part is an email the source copied and pasted to me; i have
   included the questions i was asking in red above the answers]

   Regarding the questions below, here are my answers:

   1) State-owned Nile News TV ran a report on Jan. 25 that was very
   disparaging of all the protesters. But the thing that interested me the
   most was the statement made in the broadcast was: "This is the first time
   political movements such as 6 April movement, National Association for
   Change and Kifaya are mentioned in state television."

   What?! That cannot be true, man. Is it really? Can you please ask your
   friends at April 6?

   1) No, this is wrong! It is not the first time state tv mentions
   opposition groups. Nile News TV is part of the state-owned Egypt News
   Sector. They mentioned April6 and Kefaya and Elbaradei many many times
   before. Of course, they do not always say nice things about them. But at
   least in mentioning them they recognize that they exist!

   2) I read on the April 6 website their little "About Us" page in English:
   http://shabab6april.wordpress.com/shabab-6-april-youth-movement-about-us-in-english/

   I am very interested in the reference to Mahalla in 2007. What is so
   special about that place to them?
   2) Mahalla 2007 protests were the spark that started April6 Movement from
   the very beginning. In 2007, labor force in Mahalla (the largest
   industrial city of Egypt) started huge demonstrations against poverty and
   unfair work conditions. Those demonstrations were suppressed brutally by
   the police [BP: emphasis mine; just noting it was not the military]. So,
   activists all over Egypt, especially in Cairo called upon launching
   protests nation-wide, all over the country, against corruption, poverty,
   and low salaries. This protest was planned to happen on April6. This is
   how "April6" movement got their name.
   3) What is April 6's relationship with Kifaya?

   3) As far as I know there is no direct relationship between April6 and
   Kefaya except that some of the members of April6 were former members of
   Youth for Change sub-group affiliated to Kefaya. But both are independent
   movements that are not directly linked. Also, it is noteworthy that April6
   are mostly composed of liberal young students, while Kefaya is composed of
   leftist (socialist) older activists and intellectuals.

   I hope this is helpful.
</description>
    <date>2011-01-27 19:25:44</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-06-18 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1103141_insight-egypt-info-on-april-6-gov-t-tone-on-good-students.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.wilson@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1103176</id>
    <title>Re: Albania Update
</title>
    <description>   Yes, please rep. If we are allowed.

   Don't source. Just say STRATFOR source in country.

   On 1/27/11 11:46 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     reliable enough info to rep?

     On 1/27/11 11:42 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

 &gt;From TrapWire (protect source):

 The protest of the opposition will be held tomorrow at 14.00. It will be
 only in Tirana,

 

 

 


 --
 Marko Papic
 Analyst - Europe
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
</description>
    <date>2011-01-27 18:49:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1103176_re-albania-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bayless.parsley@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1103823</id>
    <title>[Fwd: Re: [CT] Discussion- Al-Mabhouh blowback]
</title>
    <description>   I just noticed this conversation was going only to CT.  Should be on the
   analyst list so I'm transferring it.

   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: Re: [CT] Discussion- Al-Mabhouh blowback                                                      
      Date: Thu, 18 Feb 2010 00:19:14 +0000                                                               
      From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;                                                             
  Reply-To: burton@stratfor.com, CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                                                 
        To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                                                                      
References: &lt;4B7C5842.4060000@stratfor.com&gt; &lt;4B7C5AF4.9080409@stratfor.com&gt;                               
            &lt;4B7C5FB4.7070300@stratfor.com&gt; &lt;4B7C60BD.9020407@stratfor.com&gt;                               
            &lt;4B7C610F.8070509@stratfor.com&gt; &lt;4B7C6223.3070105@stratfor.com&gt;                               
            &lt;4B7C643D.9090608@stratfor.com&gt; &lt;4B7C6567.8030206@stratfor.com&gt;                               
            &lt;4B7C65E1.2010108@stratfor.com&gt; &lt;4B7C684B.4070805@stratfor.com&gt;                               
            &lt;059901cab01e$4fe781c0$efb68540$@stewart@stratfor.com&gt; &lt;4B7C70C9.6010103@stratfor.com&gt;        
            &lt;4B7C7211.4000703@stratfor.com&gt;&lt;4B7C83FF.1060709@stratfor.com&gt;&lt;4B7C85B4.5000501@stratfor.com&gt; 

   The trade offs outweigh retiring these folks back to the academy.

   One can use this for training purposes forever.

   Its just the risk one runs in The Great Game.

   Tradeoff was worth it.

   Mossad Chief was probably there.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: George Friedman &lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Wed, 17 Feb 2010 18:11:32 -0600
   To: CT AOR&lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [CT] Discussion- Al-Mabhouh blowback
   Worse--having highly and expensively trained people sidelined is a major
   problem for a small intelligence agency.  There were other ways to do
   this.

   Ginger Hatfield wrote:

     Being exposed and having to retire to headquarters is one thing, but
     having Interpol warrants out for you on top of that (as Dubai has
     requested) could really hamper your life and possibly prevent you from
     ever traveling abroad again, I would think. That's a tough (albeit
     highly patriotic) sacrifice for your country, but as you said, one they
     might easily consider worth it.

     Sean Noonan wrote:

       We were discussing this during our video review.A  My belief is that
       some of these operatives' career is over.A  They're gonna go work in a
       little Mossad office once they come back in from the cold.A  They have
       to stay somewhere they don't feel at risk of getting picked up.A 

       Bringing intelligence officers in to work at headquarters is really
       not an uncommon thing.A  Nearly everyone gets exposed somehow in their
       career.A  Usually the NOCs are younger for that reason, eventually
       they have to be official cover or back at HQ.A  I don't think they'll
       be disappointed after pulling this off.

       Ginger Hatfield wrote:

         So what happens to those operatives now? Do they just fade away back
         into their "normal" lives as intelligence agents? Or are the
         authorities in the various countries they scattered to reviewing
         camera footage from their arrivals at the airports and trying to
         track them down that way (if that's even possible)? But if they made
         it back to Israel, then they're home free.

         A 
         This has been reported previously but it's interesting that they
         used real (albeit stolen) identities for some members of the hit
         team but made-up ones for others.

         The three hit men/woman from Ireland technically don't exist. Their
         passports were counterfeit. But at least seven people who live in
         Israel claim their identities were stolen and used by the hit team.
         http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iwVdaYpYsBz7wKRCUxpcqhtjr31AD9DU421G0
         http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/dubai/7250217/Dubai-Hamas-assassination-Irish-citizens-not-involved-Ireland-says.html

         scott stewart wrote:

           I suspect they went back and interviewed cab drivers, etc. Not
           hard to do.

           A 

           A 

           From: ct-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:ct-bounces@stratfor.com] On
           Behalf Of Ben West
           Sent: Wednesday, February 17, 2010 5:06 PM
           To: CT AOR
           Subject: Re: [CT] Discussion- Al-Mabhouh blowback

           A 

           right, but there was no inherent connection between the hotel and
           the shopping center that I could see. In order to run TrapWire,
           you first have to have the images to analyze - I'm curious as to
           who decided to look at the shopping center tapes and how they
           determined that it needed to be looked at.
           In general, this just seems too good to be true.A  Either Dubai
           police department are a bunch of bad-asses or someone got help.

           Fred Burton wrote:

 Forensically, you start on the hotel tapes from the floor of the murder 

 and walk the cat back, using TrapWire like software. 

  A 

 Ben West wrote: 

 A   

 One thing I was talking to Bayless about just now: I realize that there 

 is now face recognition technology out there that would allow the 

 Emirates to track these people, but in order to use that, you have to 

 have the right set of images to work from in the first place. 

 Running analysis at the airport makes sense because the team would have 

 scanned their passports there and so had to have gone through the 

 airport.A  Same for the hotels, authorities would have been able to place 

 the team members at each hotel based on their passports, which would 

 help specify which video to analyze. 

 However, I don't understand how they got video of the team going into 

 the shopping center.A  Out of all the random places that the team 

 could've met, what prompted the police to check that shopping center? 

 Either they ran checks on hundreds of other CCTV tapes or they somehow 

 had a tip that the team was meeting at the mall.  

  A 

 Fred Burton wrote: 

 A A A   

 Yes, I think as you break down the tape, the teams had specific roles. 

 If host country intelligence and/or another service picked up on them, 

 they had enough players in the mix to send any surveillance team down a 

 rat hole.A  I think we are missing something on the dead guy. 

  A 

 George Friedman wrote: 

 A   

 A A A A A A  

 17 people for a hit leaves so many opportunities for failure that its 

 breathtaking.A  Maybe it is the Israelis, but that is way out of the 

 box.A  Like I said, I wonder how many were camo.A  I bet you some of those 

 who resolved back to the Israeli passport holders weren't even aware 

 there was a hit on.A  That much razzle dazzle might mean a small team 

 hidden in a big box.  

  A 

 Fred Burton wrote: 

 A A A   

 A A A A A A A A  

 Wow 

  A 

 His links to Iran must have been very important. 

  A 

 Sean Noonan wrote: 

 A   

 A A A A A A  

 A A A A A A A A A A  

 Just to clarify--NYT, sourced from Dubai police, says 17 people now.  

 The 11 they identified, with pictures/passport info, and then 6 others. 

 Fred Burton wrote: 

 A A A   

 A A A A A A A A  

 A A A A A A A A A A A A  

 When you break down the video tape, efforts were made by the hit team to 

 conceal their identities from the video. 

  A 

 The operation was worked around the video tape I think. 

  A 

 Between 13-15 men were in play; multiple surveillance teams; hand offs, 

 clothing changes; wigs, toupees, cover for action. 

  A 

 Mossad has made several tactical errors in the past, to include the loss 

 of two Palestinian double agents in Europe. 

  A 

 They had the same passport foul up on the attempt to poison Mishaal in 

 Amman, which led to them being caught. 

  A 

 Frankly, Mossad has a history of bungled operations, but quite a few 

 good ones, like Ali Hassan Salameh. 

  A 

 This was Mossad. 

  A 

 George Friedman wrote: 

   

 A A A A A A  

 A A A A A A A A A A  

 A A A A A A A A A A A A A A  

 A Mossad team would be extremely aware of placement of security 

 cameras.A  They would not be doing what this woman did.A  She is to a 

 great extent blown now.A  Major intelligence agencies would be able to do 

 biometrics on her pretty effectively.A  An agent competent enough to 

 participate in an assassination of a HVT in an Arab country would be 

 highly trained and prized.A  So from this we can assume that she is 

 either a throwaway in the team or that this isn't a major league 

 hit--and it was. The Israelis did not need to make this appear to be an 

 Israeli hit because everyone would assume that it was Israeli anyway. No 

 need for confirmation.A  For a hit like this the passports used would 

 have been much harder to trace, certainly not to living people in 

 Israel.A  The Israelis, like all intelligence organizations, maintain 

 libraries of properly aged identities that don't resolve to living 

 people. 

  A 

 Either this was not an Israeli hit or the Israelis sent a second tier 

 team.A  The women looks like she could be Jewish, but she could also be 

 middle eastern or American. 

 This hit, like some other allegedly Israeli hits in recent years, does 

 not follow high professional standards.A  Trust me on this--the hotel in 

 which this woman stayed was mapped out months ago, probably from blue 

 prints but certainly remapped for security devices and cameras.A  She was 

 briefed (pounded into her head) where the cameras were and to turn her 

 head as she walked by, preferably wearing a dress that hid her figure--a 

 blob on the video camera.A  Instead, she is hamming it up.A  Looking at 

 her, she wasn't the honey trap, so what the hell is going on? 

  A 

 Sean Noonan wrote: 

 A A   

 A A A A A A A A  

 A A A A A A A A A A A A  

 A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A  

 As Posey works on the piece from the tactical angle, I wanted to bring 

 up the political angle.A  Now that all kinds of information has come 

 out on the assassination of Hamas operative Al-Mabhouh in Dubai on 

 Jan. 19, European governments are starting to question the fraudulent 

 use of their passports.A  6 British, 3 Irish, 1 German and 1 French 

 passports were all faked/stolen/borrowed and then used by the 

 assassination team.A  NYT/Dubai says there were another 6 involved, who 

 they probably didn't get on camera. 

 Israel has in the past borrowed/acquired passports from immigrated or 

 dual-citizens of other countries (like Canada for failed Meshaal 

 assassination). They also can fake them or steal them.A  It's becoming 

 clear that this was a Mossad op, so if we make that assumption, what's 

 the blowback on Israel? 

  A 

 UK is asking questions: 

 http://www.english.rfi.fr/europe/20100217-uk-presses-answers-hamas-killing 

  A 

 http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5heI4dq286UxVDMXoueq-dwR8tbJw 

  A 

 http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=37297 

  A 

 Ireland from a week or so ago: 

 http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/world-news/israeli-hit-squad-that-killed-hamas-commander-had-irish-passports-14670094.html 

  A 

  A 

 Six of the passport _names_ had dual citizenship with israel: 

 http://articles.latimes.com/2010/feb/16/world/la-fg-dubai-slaying17-2010feb17 

  A 

  A 

 I haven't seen stuff from other countries yet.A  When this happened to 

 the Canadians with Meshaal, they couldn't/didn't do much.A  Will the 

 Brits or anyone else do anything?A  Obviously Israel doesn't really 

 give a shit, but I feel like this is something we should watch. 

  A 

 --  

 Sean Noonan 

 ADP- Tactical Intelligence 

 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967 

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc. 

 www.stratfor.com 

  A 

 A A A A A A A   

 A A A A A A A A A A  

 A A A A A A A A A A A A A A  

 A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A  

 --  

  A 

 George Friedman 

  A 

 Founder and CEO 

  A 

 Stratfor 

  A 

 700 Lavaca Street 

  A 

 Suite 900 

  A 

 Austin, Texas 78701 

  A 

  A 

 PhoneA  512-744-4319 

  A 

 FaxA  512-744-4334 

  A 

 A A A   

 A A A A A A A A  

 A A A A A A A A A A A A  

 A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A  

 A   

 A A A A A A  

 A A A A A A A A A A  

 --  

  A 

 George Friedman 

  A 

 Founder and CEO 

  A 

 Stratfor 

  A 

 700 Lavaca Street 

  A 

 Suite 900 

  A 

 Austin, Texas 78701 

  A 

  A 

 PhoneA  512-744-4319 

  A 

 FaxA  512-744-4334 

  A 

 A A A   

 A A A A A A A A  

 --  

 Ben West 

 Terrorism and Security Analyst 

 STRATFOR 

 Austin,TX 

 Cell: 512-750-9890 

  A 

 A A A   

 --  

 Ben West 

 Terrorism and Security Analyst 

 STRATFOR 

 Austin,TX 

 Cell: 512-750-9890 

 --
 Sean Noonan
 ADP- Tactical Intelligence
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

  

   --

   George Friedman

   Founder and CEO

   Stratfor

   700 Lavaca Street

   Suite 900

   Austin, Texas 78701

   Phone  512-744-4319

   Fax  512-744-4334

   --

   George Friedman

   Founder and CEO

   Stratfor

   700 Lavaca Street

   Suite 900

   Austin, Texas 78701

   Phone  512-744-4319

   Fax  512-744-4334
</description>
    <date>2010-02-18 01:21:28</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1103823_-fwd-re-ct-discussion-al-mabhouh-blowback-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
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      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1105024</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT -- COTE D'IVOIRE -- thoughts on French motivation against
	Gbagbo
</title>
    <description>   i don't know the numbers but i doubt France's economy would be hurt all
   that bad regardless of anything that ever happens in Ivory Coast

   On 1/29/11 3:41 PM, Mark Schroeder wrote:

     Code: CI004
     Attribution: Stratfor Ivorian source (is an Ivorian sociology professor)
     Publication: if useful
     Source reliability: is new
     Item credibility: is new
     Handler: Mark
     Suggested distribution: Africa, Analysts

     France has to go so far to oust a president because it is vital for its
     survival..
     If [incumbent President] Gbagbo resists enough and brings changes to
     Cote d'Ivoire (Nationalizing French companies, removing Cote d'Ivoire
     from the West African Central Bank (BCEAO), for example) France will
     lose a big deal of money. 85% of that central bank's money is deposited
     in the Bank of France and Cote d'Ivoire provides 60% of such money. So
     imagine the disaster if Cote d'Ivoire gets out of the BCEAO. Last night
     I listened to one of the minister of Gbagbo and he said this: "by
     cutting us out of the BCEAO, the France and its African partners are
     helping us tremendously. We will print our own money soon and control
     our economy"...
     So, when I say it is vital for France it is because other countries
     might follow Cote d'Ivoire example; a move that, in the long run, can
     weaken France's economy.
</description>
    <date>2011-01-29 23:13:12</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-06 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1105024_re-insight-cote-d-ivoire-thoughts-on-french-motivation.html</permalink>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1105205</id>
    <title>Re: G3/B3/GV - CHINA/CANADA/ENERGY -
	China	Invests	in	Canadian	Oil-Export Project
</title>
    <description>   it is Prince Rupert that is the gateway they're talking about. i'll send
   here next a PR release I dug up, on plans for Prince Rupert port and
   infrastructure.

   On 1/21/11 8:33 AM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

     yeah - that might be better for PR reasons

     they'll need a mega-massive port expansion for that tho -- add in a
     couple billion more

     On 1/21/2011 8:28 AM, Mark Schroeder wrote:

       i think BC is actually building a new port/new infrastructure up in
       the northern part of the province, Prince Rupert I believe.

       I can try to get a bit of insight on this if I'm lucky.

       On 1/21/11 8:25 AM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

         while technically possible, going over the Canadian Rockies would be
         a technical challenge to say the least

         im guessing that the price tag on this would easily go above $15b
         (about triple what the current estimate is)

         there's are very good reasons why all the crude goes south on flat
         land to the midwest

         so not impossible, but china would have to pony up for all of that
         itself (its done stranger things for less, so who knows)

         Vancouver as an oil supertanker port -- now THAT would do some
         interesting things to Canada's view of China

         On 1/20/2011 10:19 PM, Chris Farnham wrote:

           Will this undermine the supply to the US at all? [chris]

                  China Invests in Canadian Oil-Export Project

             * http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704747904576094513925922294.html?mod=WSJASIA_hps_LEFTTopWhatNews

  By EDWARD WELSCH

           CALGARY-China is helping to finance the development of a proposed
           $5.51 billion dollar oil pipeline to Canada's West Coast that
           would open the Asian market to Canadian crude, which is now
           chiefly consumed by the U.S.

           State-owned China Petroleum &amp; Chemical Corp., or Sinopec, is among
           a consortium of Canadian oil producers and Asian refiners
           investing $100 million in Enbridge Inc.'s proposed Northern
           Gateway pipeline, Enbridge Chief Executive Pat Daniel said during
           a Web cast investor conference Thursday.

           The Northern Gateway pipeline would pipe an average of 525,000
           barrels of crude oil a day from Canada's oil-sands region to a
           port in British Columbia, from which it would be shipped to Asian
           markets. Regulators aren't expected to rule on whether the project
           can go forward until next year. If approved, construction is
           scheduled to be completed in 2016.

           Canada's oil sands hold an estimated 170 billion barrels of oil,
           making it the second-largest oil reserve in the world, after Saudi
           Arabia's. The U.S. is the only export market for Canadian crude
           oil, and Canada is the U.S.'s largest single supplier.

           "We think it is hugely in Canada's national best interest to have
           a second outlet for our crude oil," Mr. Daniel said, "...so that
           we can become a price-maker with regard to crude-oil pricing,
           instead of a price-taker."

           Sinopec and other investors have put up $100 million to help
           Northern Gateway get through the regulatory process, which
           includes producing environmental-impact studies and consulting
           with native and environmental groups-some of which oppose the
           project.

           Mr. Daniel said Enbridge itself has already spent $100 million on
           the regulatory process. The Calgary-based pipeline company applied
           for approval to build Northern Gateway in May, and expects
           Canada's federal energy regulator to approve it by the middle of
           2012.

           Mr. Daniel said confidentiality agreements prohibited him from
           naming the other investors, but said he could name Sinopec because
           the news had been previously reported by Canadian newspaper the
           National Post.

           The proposal has met fierce criticism from native groups and
           environmental nongovernmental organizations. Some warn of the risk
           of spills from the pipeline or from oil tankers, while others are
           chiefly opposed to further growth of the oil-sands industry, which
           has come under fire for its substantial greenhouse-gas emissions
           and fears of water contamination.

           Mr. Daniel said he is confident Enbridge could win over
           opposition. The company in November proposed giving a 10% equity
           stake to native groups in an attempt to win them over, Daniel
           said.

           "That's been very well received and we're hoping to bring more
           First Nations on side as a result of that," he said.

           U.S.-listed shares of Enbridge closed down 39 cents at $55.32 on
           the New York Stock Exchange Thursday.

           Write to Edward Welsch at edward.welsch@dowjones.com

           --

           Chris Farnham
           Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
           China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
           Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
           www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-01-21 15:38:57</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-06-20 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1105205_re-g3-b3-gv-china-canada-energy-china-invests-in-canadian.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mark.schroeder@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1105470</id>
    <title>Re: Tirana update
</title>
    <description>   I think this is worth being written up as a piece ahead of tomorrow's
   protests.

   Is it possible to publish this?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: burton@stratfor.com
   To: "Analysts" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;, "Tactical" &lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2011 1:36:04 PM
   Subject: Tirana update

   From TrapWire --

   Just in from a contact (Former senior law enforcement officer with direct
   access to Opposition party members).

    

   Tirana : 22 Jan 2011 (Situation at 1930 local)

    

   a**         Situation today calm, as Govt declared day of mourning for the
   "martyrs" (Berisha's words).

   a**         The Opposition has been hold-up all day today in Mayor Edi
   Rama's office discussing next steps. There is some reluctance on their
   part as to whether tomorrow's protest should proceed as planned. They have
   apparently received word that many protesters intend to come armed to
   protect themselves against the police.  Rama has commented privately he
   may lead the protest to try and keep them peaceful.

   a**         Despite this, the Opposition continues to insist they will not
   stop actions against the current regime until Berisha resigns. In
   response, Berisha has declared that "anyone touching an official
   government building will meet the same fate as the protestors yesterday."

   a**         Rumblings have started in other major cities throughout
   Albania re. sympathetic protests. Most notably Shkoder, Durres and
   Gjirokaster.

   a**         There are reports of a handful of arrests of senior police
   officials following yesterday's incident. Investigation is now underway as
   to who gave the order to fire upon the crowds.

   a**         Rumors continue to spread within the population that agents of
   the State Intelligence Service (SHISH) had infiltrated the crowds and
   provoked yesterday's violence. (Comment: No proof of this, but would not
   be the first time SHISH was used in this capacity).

   a**         Note: Great deal of fear and apprehension amongst the
   populace, particularly in Tirana. Most still have vivid memories of '90
   and '97. Average Albanian is still well armed following the ransacking of
   weapons depots in '97 and an escalation in violence is not unthinkable.

    

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 20:40:14</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1105470_re-tirana-update-.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1105676</id>
    <title>Re: Albania
</title>
    <description>   According to the AP, "The Prosecutor General's office said arrest warrants
   had been issued for six officers of the National Guard, army troops under
   Interior Ministry command who guard government institutions and senior
   officials."

   On 1/22/11 9:42 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     Is there a chance The cops were not actually the ones who killed the
     three? I didnt see any reports or photos indicating the riot police even
     had guns. And the type of pistol used to fire the rounds was listed in
     an article yesterday. I know nothing about guns so am of no use here,
     but would it be helpful to know The kind of firearm used?

     Either way, doesnt matter. All that matters is the political angle and
     the fact that the opposition perceives the police to be culpable

     Btw artillery?!

     On 2011 Jan 22, at 08:51, Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

         From TrapWire contact (former CIA clandestine officer)

       Not sure if STRATFOR's following events there -- but I chatted with
       some
       contacts in Tirana and tomorrow (Sunday) protests are expected to be
       even larger than yesterday's -- with many in the crowd bent on
       retaliation for the police killing of three protestors. (As always,
       rumor mills are in overdrive in the Balkans with claims being made
       that
       the cops targeted these protestors for assassination. No proof yet
       that
       that's the case. Having dealt with Albanian cops for three years, I
       can
       assure you though they don't need much pushing to draw their weapons.
       They actually fired artillery rounds onto protestors during the chaos
       of
       '97). Tough times in Tirana right now.

       Mike

 --
 Alex Hayward
 STRATFOR Research Intern
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 18:44:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1105676_re-albania-.html</permalink>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1105690</id>
    <title>Re: Tirana update
</title>
    <description>        Rumors continue to spread within the population that agents of the
   State Intelligence Service (SHISH) had infiltrated the crowds and provoked
   yesterday's violence. (Comment: No proof of this, but would not be the
   first time SHISH was used in this capacity).
   Would SHISH be trying to instigate violence so as to justify a govt
   crackdown on socialists? Seems like that is an unnecessary risk... No one
   wants civil war when youre The one actually in power already.
    
   On 2011 Jan 22, at 13:36, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     From TrapWire --
     Just in from a contact (Former senior law enforcement officer with
     direct access to Opposition party members).
      
     Tirana : 22 Jan 2011 (Situation at 1930 local)
      
     a**         Situation today calm, as Govt declared day of mourning for
     the "martyrs" (Berisha's words).
     a**         The Opposition has been hold-up all day today in Mayor Edi
     Rama's office discussing next steps. There is some reluctance on their
     part as to whether tomorrow's protest should proceed as planned. They
     have apparently received word that many protesters intend to come armed
     to protect themselves against the police.  Rama has commented privately
     he may lead the protest to try and keep them peaceful.
     a**         Despite this, the Opposition continues to insist they will
     not stop actions against the current regime until Berisha resigns. In
     response, Berisha has declared that "anyone touching an official
     government building will meet the same fate as the protestors
     yesterday."
     a**         Rumblings have started in other major cities throughout
     Albania re. sympathetic protests. Most notably Shkoder, Durres and
     Gjirokaster.
     a**         There are reports of a handful of arrests of senior police
     officials following yesterday's incident. Investigation is now underway
     as to who gave the order to fire upon the crowds.
     a**         Rumors continue to spread within the population that agents
     of the State Intelligence Service (SHISH) had infiltrated the crowds and
     provoked yesterday's violence. (Comment: No proof of this, but would not
     be the first time SHISH was used in this capacity).
     a**         Note: Great deal of fear and apprehension amongst the
     populace, particularly in Tirana. Most still have vivid memories of '90
     and '97. Average Albanian is still well armed following the ransacking
     of weapons depots in '97 and an escalation in violence is not
     unthinkable.
      
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 22:24:15</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1105690_re-tirana-update-.html</permalink>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1106053</id>
    <title>Re: On bombing Iran
</title>
    <description>The point is what is Israel's next move?  Bob and Mike are experts, but
both also understand that what we think is really not the issue.  I also
know what BB will do, i.e., protect the State of Israel.  One can look
at MOSSAD's recent covert activities and get a sense of their mindset.
I also think they will assassinate A-Dogg.  His helo will have a
malfunction.

Kamran Bokhari wrote:
&gt; /The National Journal Online/ recently solicited submissions
&gt; &lt;http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1103080116673&amp;s=587&amp;e=001zZCK7RjAkKotG9fO6_BsMQTLf85siLqbdpGanhUklt1BcxdBjf8iJmMyphxq2VMVMK_ce1s0AQRbba6B5cDZGL4DIXtBJ1tqQXHJ4Xnv3RZSSq9wW4ZSvxaIKtV9oLb3H7yw0tfeHDfEjImJWfltpgMs6TRM0l8qNAuo52xJSRZRF9k8jV0Y-8Gc-rWII7Q3&gt; from
&gt; a variety of different Middle East experts on what policy steps the U.S.
&gt; should next take toward Iran. Of the ten submissions that were
&gt; published, none of them advised Washington to use military force.
&gt; *Michael F. Scheuer *called upon the administration to make a public
&gt; statement that there will be no military action, or support of one,
&gt; against Iran. *Michael Brenner* argued that embracing the opposition
&gt; movement in Iran could be "the kiss of death." *James Jay Carafano
&gt; *maintained that the U.S. should adopt tough sanctions against Iran as
&gt; well as "shame Iran for its horrific human rights record." And *Robert
&gt; Baer proposed a "don't do anything about Iran" policy since *Iran's
&gt; military dictatorship thrives on conflict and hostility.
&gt; 
&gt;  
&gt; 
</description>
    <date>2010-02-22 17:21:03</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-27 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1106053_re-on-bombing-iran-.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1107428</id>
    <title>Re: Thoughts on Der Spiegel?
</title>
    <description>Visibility into their program becomes a challenge for everyone.  Our
best sources have been the past defections and probing journalists,
coupled w/SIGINT.  As I've said for years, we (namely the US Govt) has
never gotten any calls on Iran correct.  There is no reason to believe
that we have any understanding of the country.  Regarding the nuclear
issue, MOSSAD is laser fixated to the detriment of other Arab and
Palestinian threats.  A betting man goes w/MOSSAD's estimates on this
front.  Universities are used for nuclear R&amp;D inside the country.

Kamran Bokhari wrote:
&gt; *Not saying they are also false but the involvement is exaggerated.
&gt; There is no way A-Dogg has control over the nuclear establishment. He
&gt; has tremendous amount of influence over it but this is one of those
&gt; projects that the Sepah have control over and the Sepah go back to the
&gt; SL. Daneshjoo is an A-Dogg man and therefore is unlikely to be that
&gt; influential. Same thing with Fakhrizadeh. The article or the
&gt; intelligence it is based on is over privileging his role over an entire
&gt; and complex establishment.  *
&gt; 
&gt;  
&gt; 
&gt; * *
&gt; 
&gt; *From:* analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
&gt; [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] *On Behalf Of *Reva Bhalla
&gt; *Sent:* January-25-10 1:14 PM
&gt; *To:* Analyst List
&gt; *Subject:* Re: Thoughts on Der Spiegel?
&gt; 
&gt;  
&gt; 
&gt; well we really have no way of determining Daneshjoo's or Fakhrizadeh's
&gt; exact involvement in the program. doesn't mean the claims in the article
&gt; are necessarily false
&gt; 
&gt;  
&gt; 
&gt; On Jan 25, 2010, at 12:10 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; *This article has some oddities. First Kamran Daneshjoo is an A-Dogg
&gt; ally and thus hasn’t been around for a long time. Until recently he was
&gt; EC chief. The nuclear establishment is very large. Between the AEO,
&gt; SNSC, IRGC, the SL’s office, Majlis’ Nat’l Security and Foreign Policy
&gt; Committee, he doesn’t stand a chance to be a key player. The Defense
&gt; Ministry has an input into the nuclear establishment but it is one of
&gt; many players. The other guy, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who is an IRGC officer
&gt; (unknown rank) and is a nuclear physicist is also an obscure guy. It
&gt; also seems like the article uses Asgari and Amiri’s involvement to
&gt; rattle the Iranian chain as they have been concerned about it.  *
&gt; 
&gt; * *
&gt; 
&gt; *From:* analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
&gt; &lt;mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] *On Behalf Of *Reva Bhalla
&gt; *Sent:* January-25-10 12:42 PM
&gt; *To:* Analyst List
&gt; *Subject:* Thoughts on Der Spiegel?
&gt; 
&gt;  
&gt; 
&gt; Any thoughts on Der Spiegel as an outlet for Mossad or any other
&gt; intelligence agencies?  Have we seen examples of this in the past?  They
&gt; have some insane detail here (read the second half) where they claim
&gt; they've got all this access to a classified doc on Iran's nuclear
&gt; weapons program
&gt; 
&gt;  
&gt; 
&gt;  
&gt; 
&gt;  
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt;           01/25/2010
&gt; 
&gt;  
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt;   The Secret Nuclear Dossier
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt;     Intelligence from Tehran Elevates Concern in the West
&gt; 
&gt; /By Dieter Bednarz, Erich Follath and Holger Stark/
&gt; 
&gt; *The West has long been suspicous of Iran's nuclear program. SPIEGEL has
&gt; obtained new documents on secret tests and leadership structures that
&gt; call into question Tehran's claims to be exclusively interested in the
&gt; peaceful use of the technology.*
&gt; 
&gt; It was probably the last attempt to defuse the nuclear dispute with
&gt; Tehran without having to turn to dramatic new sanctions or military
&gt; action. The plan, devised at the White House in October, had Russian and
&gt; Chinese support and came with the seal of approval of the US president.
&gt; It was clearly a Barack Obama operation.
&gt; 
&gt;  
&gt; 
&gt; Under the plan, Iran would send a large share of its low enriched
&gt; uranium abroad, all at once, for a period of one year, receiving
&gt; internationally monitored quantities of nuclear fuel elements in return.
&gt; It was a deal that provided benefits for all sides. The Iranians would
&gt; have enough material for what they claim is their civilian nuclear
&gt; program, as well as for scientific experiments, and the world could be
&gt; assured that Tehran would not be left with enough fissile material for
&gt; its secret domestic uranium enrichment program -- and for what the West
&gt; assumes is the building of a nuclear bomb.
&gt; 
&gt;  
&gt; 
&gt;  
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt;         PHOTO GALLERY
&gt; 
&gt; ·         &lt;image001.jpg&gt;
&gt; &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;
&gt; 
&gt; ·         &lt;image002.jpg&gt;
&gt; &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;
&gt; 
&gt; ·         &lt;image003.jpg&gt;
&gt; &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; 3  Photos
&gt; 
&gt; *Photo Gallery:* Iran's Nuclear Program
&gt; &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt;  
&gt; 
&gt; Tehran's leaders initially agreed to the proposal "in principle." But
&gt; for weeks they put off the international community with vague allusions
&gt; to a "final response," and when that response finally materialized, it
&gt; came in the form of a "counter-proposal." Under this proposal, Tehran
&gt; insisted that the exchange could not take place all at once, but only in
&gt; stages, and that the material would not be sent abroad. Instead, Tehran
&gt; wanted the exchange to take place in Iran.
&gt; 
&gt; Once again, the Iranian leadership has rebuffed the West with phony
&gt; promises of its willingness to compromise. The government in Tehran
&gt; officially rejected the nuclear exchange plan last Tuesday. To make
&gt; matters worse, after the West's discovery of a secret uranium enrichment
&gt; plant near Qom, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad defiantly announced that
&gt; he would never give in, and in fact would build 10 more enrichment
&gt; plants instead.
&gt; 
&gt; *Highly Volatile Material*
&gt; 
&gt; But officials in Washington and European capitals are currently not as
&gt; concerned about these cocky, unrealistic announcements as they are about
&gt; intelligence reports based on sources within Iran and information from
&gt; high-ranking defectors. The new information, say American experts, will
&gt; likely prompt the US government to reassess the risks coming from the
&gt; mullah-controlled country in the coming days and raise the alarm level
&gt; from yellow to red. Skeptics who in the past, sometimes justifiably so,
&gt; treated alarmist reports as Israeli propaganda, are also extremely
&gt; worried. They include the experts from the United Nations International
&gt; Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whose goal is prevent the spread of nuclear
&gt; weapons.
&gt; 
&gt; After an extensive internal investigation, IAEA officials concluded that
&gt; a computer obtained from Iran years ago contains highly volatile
&gt; material. The laptop reached the Americans through Germany's foreign
&gt; intelligence agency, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), and was then
&gt; passed on to the IAEA in Vienna.
&gt; 
&gt; Reports by Ali Reza Asgari, Iran's former deputy defense minister who
&gt; managed to defect to the United States, where he was given a new
&gt; identity, proved to be just as informative. Nuclear scientist Shahram
&gt; Amiri, who "disappeared" during a pilgrimage to Mecca in June 2009, is
&gt; also believed to have particularly valuable information. The Iranian
&gt; authorities accused Saudi Arabia and the United States of kidnapping the
&gt; expert, but it is more likely that he defected.
&gt; 
&gt; Iran's government has come under pressure as a result of the new
&gt; charges. They center on the question of who exactly is responsible for
&gt; the country's nuclear program -- and what this says about its true
&gt; nature. The government has consistently told the IAEA that the only
&gt; agency involved in uranium enrichment is the National Energy Council,
&gt; and that its work was exclusively dedicated to the peaceful use of the
&gt; technology.
&gt; 
&gt; But if the claims are true that have been made in an intelligence
&gt; dossier currently under review in diplomatic circles in Washington,
&gt; Vienna, Tel Aviv and Berlin, portions of which SPIEGEL has obtained,
&gt; this is a half-truth at best.
&gt; 
&gt; According to the classified document, there is a secret military branch
&gt; of Iran's nuclear research program that answers to the Defense Ministry
&gt; and has clandestine structures. The officials who have read the dossier
&gt; conclude that the government in Tehran is serious about developing a
&gt; bomb, and that its plans are well advanced. There are two names that
&gt; appear again and again in the documents, particularly in connection with
&gt; the secret weapons program: Kamran Daneshjoo and Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.
&gt; 
&gt; *Secret Heart of Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program*
&gt; 
&gt; Daneshjoo, 52, Iran's new minister of science, research and technology,
&gt; is also responsible for the country's nuclear energy agency, and he is
&gt; seen as a close ally of Ahmadinejad. Opposition leaders say he is a
&gt; hardliner who was partly responsible for the apparently rigged
&gt; presidential election in June. Daneshjoo's biography includes only
&gt; marginal references to his possible nuclear expertise. In describing
&gt; himself, the man with the steely-gray beard writes that he studied
&gt; engineering in the British city of Manchester, and then spent several
&gt; years working at a Tehran "Center for Aviation Technology." Western
&gt; experts believe that this center developed into a sub-organization of
&gt; the Defense Ministry known as the FEDAT, an acronym for the "Department
&gt; for Expanded High-Technology Applications" -- the secret heart of Iran's
&gt; nuclear weapons program. The head of that organization is Mohsen
&gt; Fakhrizadeh, 48, an officer in the Revolutionary Guard and a professor
&gt; at Tehran's Imam Hossein University.
&gt; 
&gt; Western intelligence agencies believe that although the nuclear energy
&gt; agency and the FEDAT compete in some areas, they have agreed to a
&gt; division of labor on the central issue of nuclear weapons research, with
&gt; the nuclear agency primarily supervising uranium enrichment while the
&gt; FEDAT is involved in the construction of a nuclear warhead to be used in
&gt; Iran's Shahab missiles. Experts believe that Iran's scientists could
&gt; produce a primitive, truck-sized version of the bomb this year, but that
&gt; it would have to be compressed to a size that would fit into a nuclear
&gt; warhead to yield the strategic threat potential that has Israel and the
&gt; West so alarmed -- and that they could reach that stage by sometime
&gt; between 2012 and 2014.
&gt; 
&gt; The Iranians are believed to have conducted non-nuclear tests of a
&gt; detonating mechanism for a nuclear bomb more than six years ago. The
&gt; challenge in the technology is to uniformly ignite the conventional
&gt; explosives surrounding the uranium core -- which is needed to produce
&gt; the desired chain reaction. It is believed that the test series was
&gt; conducted with a warhead encased in aluminum. In other words, everything
&gt; but the core was "real." According to the reports, the Tehran engineers
&gt; used thin fibers and a measuring circuit board in place of the fissile
&gt; material. This enabled them to measure the shock waves and photograph
&gt; flashes that simulate the detonation of a nuclear bomb with some degree
&gt; of accuracy. The results were apparently so encouraging that the Iranian
&gt; government has since classified the technology as "feasible."
&gt; 
&gt; SPIEGEL obtained access to a FEDAT organizational chart and a list of
&gt; the names of scientists working for the agency. The Vienna-based IAEA
&gt; also has these documents, but the Iranian president claims that they are
&gt; forged and are being used to discredit his country. After reporting two
&gt; years ago that the Iranians had frozen their nuclear weapons research in
&gt; 2003, the CIA and other intelligence agencies will probably paint a
&gt; significantly more sobering scenario just as the UN Security Council is
&gt; considering tougher sanctions against Iran.
&gt; 
&gt; *Mulling Sanctions*
&gt; 
&gt; When France assumes the Council's rotating chairmanship in February,
&gt; Washington could push for a showdown. While Moscow is not ruling out
&gt; additional punitive measures, China, which has negotiated billions in
&gt; energy deals with Iran, is more likely to block such measures.
&gt; 
&gt; China could, however, approve "smart" sanctions, such as travel
&gt; restrictions for senior members of the Revolutionary Guard and nuclear
&gt; scientists. Fakhrizadeh is already on a list of officials subject to
&gt; such restrictions, and Daneshjoo could well be added in the future.
&gt; 
&gt; But the West would presumably be on its own when enforcing sanctions
&gt; that would be truly harmful to Iran -- and to its own, profitable trade
&gt; relations with Tehran. The most effective trade weapon would be a fuel
&gt; embargo. Because of a lack of refinery capacity Iran, which has the
&gt; world's second-largest oil reserves, imports almost half of the gasoline
&gt; it uses. Sanctions would trigger a sharp rise in the price of gasoline,
&gt; inevitably leading to social unrest. Experts are divided over whether it
&gt; would be directed against the unpopular regime or if the country's
&gt; leaders could once again inflame the Iranian people against the "evil West."
&gt; 
&gt; This leaves the military option. Apart from the political consequences
&gt; and the possibility of counter-attacks, bombing Iran's nuclear
&gt; facilities would be extremely difficult. The nuclear experts have
&gt; literally buried themselves and their facilities underground, in
&gt; locations that would be virtually impossible to reach with conventional
&gt; weapons.
&gt; 
&gt; While even Israeli experts are skeptical over how much damage bombing
&gt; the facilities could do to the nuclear program, the normally levelheaded
&gt; US General David Petraeus sounded downright belligerent when asked
&gt; whether the Iranian nuclear facilities could be attacked militarily.
&gt; "Well, they certainly can be bombed," he said just two weeks ago in
&gt; Washington.
&gt; 
&gt; /Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan/
&gt; 
&gt;  
&gt; 
</description>
    <date>2010-01-25 19:39:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-11 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1107428_re-thoughts-on-der-spiegel-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1108169</id>
    <title>Re: B2* - Greek fury at EU partners over 'psychology of looming
	collapse'
</title>
    <description>   Papandreu is of course correct. Greece really is "the lab animal" in the
   tussle between the EU and the markets. The EU is using the Greek example
   to send two messages: 1. First is to the rest of the Club Med: there may
   be an implicit bailout at the end of teh rainbow, but it is one bloody
   rainbow that!, and 2) To the markets that the EU will bail out, so dont
   dump the bonds.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Antonia Colibasanu" &lt;colibasanu@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "alerts" &lt;alerts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Sunday, February 14, 2010 2:33:51 AM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: B2* - Greek fury at EU partners over 'psychology of looming
   collapse'

   *this is reported by FT online 8 hours ago but was in print edition of
   yesterday. so no rep :(

   http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1ee4cdfe-183c-11df-9256-00144feab49a.html

   Greek fury at EU partners over 'psychology of looming collapse'

   By Kerin Hope in Athens, Quentin Peel in Berlin and Tony,Barber in
   Brussels

   Published: February 13 2010 02:00 | Last updated: February 13 2010 02:00

   Greece yesterday unleashed a fierce attack on its European Union partners,
   accusing them of creating a "psychology of looming collapse" a day after
   they had pledged support for the country's crisis-hit government.

   George Papandreou, Greek prime minister, said that, in the eurozone's
   first big test, Greece had become "a laboratory animal in the battle
   between Europe and the markets".

   In a televised address to his cabinet, he criticised other EU members for
   sending "mixed messages about our country . . . that have created a
   psychology of looming collapse which could be self-fulfilling".

   Mr Papandreou blamed the European Commission for failing to crack down on
   the previous conservative government's "criminal record" in falsifying
   statistics. "This has undermined the responsibility of the European
   institutions with international markets," he said.

   His outburst is likely to infuriate the very leaders whose help Mr
   Papandreou needs. It came as it emerged there would be no more talk of
   financial assistance until Athens had persuaded the EU that it had a
   sustainable austerity programme in place.

   Germany is insisting Athens bears initial responsibility for restoring
   confidence in Greece. Angela Merkel, German chancellor, resisted French
   efforts to come up with an explicit bail-out package at Thursday's summit
   of EU leaders in Brussels.

   Officials in Paris said Ms Merkel's insistence on additional efforts by
   Greece to cut its budget deficit came close to thwarting agreement at the
   summit. According to sources in Athens, she called for a rise in Greek
   value-added tax of 1 percentage point, in addition to extra spending cuts.
   Herman Van Rompuy, EU president, drafted a compromise before the summit
   started.

   Ms Merkel's tough stance has overwhelming political and popular support in
   Germany.

   Members of both government and opposition parties in the Bundestag said
   there would be no parliamentary support for a Greek rescue package without
   clear evidence of drastic cuts in spending. Eurozone finance ministers are
   due to meet on Monday, but no detailed rescue plan will be on their
   agenda.

   Additional reporting by Ben Hall in Paris

   Eurozone economy, Page 5 Editorial Comment, Page 10 Man in the News, Page
   11 Lex, Page 24

   Marko Papic wrote:

        EU needs to step up anti-speculation moves: Greek PM
       12 February 2010, 15:07 CET
       http://www.eubusiness.com/news-eu/greece-economy-debt.2oo
       (ATHENS) - The European Union needs to become a more active and better
       coordinated force on international markets, the Greek prime minister
       said on Friday, as his country struggles to restore its global
       financial standing.

       "Today ... the credibility of Europe and its willingness to stand up
       to international markets are at stake," George Papandreou said a day
       after the European Union undertook to stand by Greece as it confronts
       a debt and public deficit crisis.

       An EU summit declaration on Thursday contained no concrete measures to
       help Greece, but Papandreou said after the meeting that it nonetheless
       amounted to a clear warning to speculators.

       The cost of borrowing for Greece on bond markets has risen sharply of
       late in response to the country's debt burden and on fears that its
       proposed measures might not be enough to strengthen public finances.

       Some commentators, however, have said the problems Greece has faced in
       raising funds are due to speculative attacks in the market.

       "My feeling is that Europe has still not understood its capacity to
       draft rules and policies to confront international markets,"
       Papandreou told a cabinet meeting Friday.

       He said it was unfortunate that while the EU had thrown its "political
       support" behind Greece's effort to shore up its public finances, "the
       struggle against the impressions and psychology of the markets lacks
       punch, to say the least."

       He said: "Greece is neither an economic nor a political superpower and
       cannot lead such a campaign by itself."

       He said: "There is a lack of coordination among the different
       components of the (European Union executive) commission, the European
       Union and the European Central Bank. There are even differences among
       them."

       Greece has caused consternation in the 16-nation eurozone with a
       public deficit that comes to 12.7 percent of gross domestic product
       and a debt that amounts to 113 percent of output.

       Both figures are far in excess of eurozone regulations and have led to
       an erosion of Greek credibility on financial markets.

       Moody's Investors Service has estimated that Greece must allocate 15.1
       percent of its revenues to interest payments, about twice the ratio
       for two other debt-burdened eurozone members, Spain and Portugal.

       The comparable figures are 7.0 percent for Spain and 7.1 percent for
       Portugal, according to Moody's.

       Text and Picture Copyright 2010 AFP.

       Mike Jeffers
       STRATFOR
       Austin, Texas
       Tel: 1-512-744-4077
       Mobile: 1-512-934-0636

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-02-14 11:12:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2001-03-13 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1108169_re-b2-greek-fury-at-eu-partners-over-psychology-of-looming.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>econ@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:econ@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1111729</id>
    <title>Re: Goggle Shitstorm Moving to Gaza (internal use only)
</title>
    <description>   Cohen's rabbi is Eric Schmidt and Obama lackey.

   My source is trying to find out if the billionaire owners are backing
   Cohen's efforts for regime change.

   I'm thinking about having the Palestinians pick him up.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 10 Feb 2011 13:22:55 -0600 (CST)
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Secure List&lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Goggle Shitstorm Moving to Gaza (internal use only)
   Why hasn't Google cut ties to Cohen yet? Or is Cohen's activity being
   endorsed by those higher up in the co. than your contact?

   On 2/10/11 1:20 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 Jared Cohen, the Google policy official who met w/the Google Gypo Exec,
 ONE HOUR before the poor chap was nabbed, is off to Gaza next
 week....per a very good Google source.

 Cohen, a Jew, is bound to get himself whacked....

 Google is not clear if Cohen is operating w/a State Dept/WH license, or
 a hippie activist.

 Google may be more important than Obama.  Their lefty billionaire owners
 think they can change the world.  I would prefer Google run the world
 vice the WH.
</description>
    <date>2011-02-10 20:26:49</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-14 22:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1111729_re-goggle-shitstorm-moving-to-gaza-internal-use-only-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1112068</id>
    <title>Re: Albania
</title>
    <description>   Ensuring adherence to rules of engagement (assuming there has even been
   stern, clear guidance given) in riot control scenarios can itself be
   difficult. Combine that with police who may not be well schooled in it and
   do not have a whole lot of non-lethal options besides a club, and you've
   got a recipe for people getting shot.

   That said, agree that the significance is the political and the popular
   perception of what happened.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Alex Hayward &lt;alex.hayward@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2011 11:44:15 -0600 (CST)
   To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Albania
   According to the AP, "The Prosecutor General's office said arrest warrants
   had been issued for six officers of the National Guard, army troops under
   Interior Ministry command who guard government institutions and senior
   officials."

   On 1/22/11 9:42 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     Is there a chance The cops were not actually the ones who killed the
     three? I didnt see any reports or photos indicating the riot police even
     had guns. And the type of pistol used to fire the rounds was listed in
     an article yesterday. I know nothing about guns so am of no use here,
     but would it be helpful to know The kind of firearm used?

     Either way, doesnt matter. All that matters is the political angle and
     the fact that the opposition perceives the police to be culpable

     Btw artillery?!

     On 2011 Jan 22, at 08:51, Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

         From TrapWire contact (former CIA clandestine officer)

       Not sure if STRATFOR's following events there -- but I chatted with
       some
       contacts in Tirana and tomorrow (Sunday) protests are expected to be
       even larger than yesterday's -- with many in the crowd bent on
       retaliation for the police killing of three protestors. (As always,
       rumor mills are in overdrive in the Balkans with claims being made
       that
       the cops targeted these protestors for assassination. No proof yet
       that
       that's the case. Having dealt with Albanian cops for three years, I
       can
       assure you though they don't need much pushing to draw their weapons.
       They actually fired artillery rounds onto protestors during the chaos
       of
       '97). Tough times in Tirana right now.

       Mike

 --
 Alex Hayward
 STRATFOR Research Intern
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 18:50:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1112068_re-albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>nathan.hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1112075</id>
    <title>Re: Tirana update
</title>
    <description>   It would be to crack down on protesters, yes. 
   And I disagree. From Tiranas perspective it is better to crack down early
   and hard. 

   On Jan 22, 2011, at 3:24 PM, Bayless Parsley
   &lt;bayless.parsley@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

          Rumors continue to spread within the population that agents of the
     State Intelligence Service (SHISH) had infiltrated the crowds and
     provoked yesterday's violence. (Comment: No proof of this, but would not
     be the first time SHISH was used in this capacity).
     Would SHISH be trying to instigate violence so as to justify a govt
     crackdown on socialists? Seems like that is an unnecessary risk... No
     one wants civil war when youre The one actually in power already.
      
     On 2011 Jan 22, at 13:36, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

       From TrapWire --
       Just in from a contact (Former senior law enforcement officer with
       direct access to Opposition party members).
        
       Tirana : 22 Jan 2011 (Situation at 1930 local)
        
       a**         Situation today calm, as Govt declared day of mourning for
       the "martyrs" (Berisha's words).
       a**         The Opposition has been hold-up all day today in Mayor Edi
       Rama's office discussing next steps. There is some reluctance on their
       part as to whether tomorrow's protest should proceed as planned. They
       have apparently received word that many protesters intend to come
       armed to protect themselves against the police.  Rama has commented
       privately he may lead the protest to try and keep them peaceful.
       a**         Despite this, the Opposition continues to insist they will
       not stop actions against the current regime until Berisha resigns. In
       response, Berisha has declared that "anyone touching an official
       government building will meet the same fate as the protestors
       yesterday."
       a**         Rumblings have started in other major cities throughout
       Albania re. sympathetic protests. Most notably Shkoder, Durres and
       Gjirokaster.
       a**         There are reports of a handful of arrests of senior police
       officials following yesterday's incident. Investigation is now
       underway as to who gave the order to fire upon the crowds.
       a**         Rumors continue to spread within the population that
       agents of the State Intelligence Service (SHISH) had infiltrated the
       crowds and provoked yesterday's violence. (Comment: No proof of this,
       but would not be the first time SHISH was used in this capacity).
       a**         Note: Great deal of fear and apprehension amongst the
       populace, particularly in Tirana. Most still have vivid memories of
       '90 and '97. Average Albanian is still well armed following the
       ransacking of weapons depots in '97 and an escalation in violence is
       not unthinkable.
        
       Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 22:36:48</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1112075_re-tirana-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1112457</id>
    <title>TrapWire read on Mubarak 
</title>
    <description>   Fill your gas tanks this weekend.

    

   (Panetta botched this one....)

   Really tough call. Mubarak has an ego bigger than Cowboy's Stadium and has
   long ago disassociated from the man-on-the-street. (Remind me to tell you
   some horror stories of working with the service there and the way the
   treated the citizenry). He's also not one to rule by committee, so there's
   probably little chance anyone's getting through to him with logic. Would
   also not surprise me if he's actually a little scared. Where exactly would
   he go...and what would he do if he leaves office this way? Is a date with
   the International Court in his future on human rights charges...like so
   many modern dictators? He can't be feeling too confident with this
   administration covering his ass if the Egyptian populace starts screaming
   for an accounting of past sins.

    

   The real kicker in all this is that the only reason we don't have a 9/11
   type incident happening every week in this country is because of dictators
   like Mubarak. He's kept his boot on the throat of the Brotherhood and
   every other radical Islamic group for some time now. Yes, he has probably
   thrown many people in prison for nothing more than being in the wrong
   place at the wrong time. But he's been one of our staunchest allies in the
   GWOT and we'll start paying the price (with more attacks on US facilities)
   when he's gone. If I were him, I'd take my millions, head to Tahiti and
   giggle at Obama as he struggles with the flood of attacks that are sure to
   come.

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-02-11 01:43:19</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1112457_trapwire-read-on-mubarak-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1112521</id>
    <title>RE: TrapWire read on Mubarak 
</title>
    <description>   But he's been one of our staunchest allies in the GWOT and we'll start
   paying the price (with more attacks on US facilities) when he's gone. If I
   were him, I'd take my millions, head to Tahiti and giggle at Obama as he
   struggles with the flood of attacks that are sure to come.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Fred Burton
   Sent: Thursday, February 10, 2011 6:43 PM
   To: 'Analyst List'
   Subject: TrapWire read on Mubarak

   Fill your gas tanks this weekend.

    

   (Panetta botched this one....)

   Really tough call. Mubarak has an ego bigger than Cowboy's Stadium and has
   long ago disassociated from the man-on-the-street. (Remind me to tell you
   some horror stories of working with the service there and the way the
   treated the citizenry). He's also not one to rule by committee, so there's
   probably little chance anyone's getting through to him with logic. Would
   also not surprise me if he's actually a little scared. Where exactly would
   he go...and what would he do if he leaves office this way? Is a date with
   the International Court in his future on human rights charges...like so
   many modern dictators? He can't be feeling too confident with this
   administration covering his ass if the Egyptian populace starts screaming
   for an accounting of past sins.

    

   The real kicker in all this is that the only reason we don't have a 9/11
   type incident happening every week in this country is because of dictators
   like Mubarak. He's kept his boot on the throat of the Brotherhood and
   every other radical Islamic group for some time now. Yes, he has probably
   thrown many people in prison for nothing more than being in the wrong
   place at the wrong time. But he's been one of our staunchest allies in the
   GWOT and we'll start paying the price (with more attacks on US facilities)
   when he's gone. If I were him, I'd take my millions, head to Tahiti and
   giggle at Obama as he struggles with the flood of attacks that are sure to
   come.

    

    

   No virus found in this incoming message.
   Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
   Version: 9.0.872 / Virus Database: 271.1.1/3434 - Release Date: 02/10/11
   01:34:00
</description>
    <date>2011-02-11 01:49:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1112521_re-trapwire-read-on-mubarak-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1112549</id>
    <title>Fw: [CT] Assange-Manning Link Not Key to WikiLeaks Case
</title>
    <description>   Not for Pub --

   We have a sealed indictment on Assange.

   Pls protect

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: ct-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Wed, 26 Jan 2011 08:16:53 -0600
   To: CT AOR&lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: [CT] Assange-Manning Link Not Key to WikiLeaks Case
   January 25, 2011 3:37 PM
   Assange-Manning Link Not Key to WikiLeaks Case

   http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503543_162-20029521-503543.html

   A report that investigators have so far failed to establish a direct link
   between the founder of the document-dumping website WikiLeaks and the Army
   private accused of providing the site with hundreds of thousands of secret
   State Department cables won't derail the military's case as much as it
   might seem.

   The case against Army Pfc. Bradley Manning didn't hinge on investigators
   uncovering a direct link to WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange anyway, CBS
   News National Security Correspondent David Martin reports.

   Special Section: WikiLeaks

   On Monday, NBC News reported that military officials said Manning couldn't
   be directly linked to Assange in allegedly handing off the cables and
   other secret documents that led to last summer's publication of the
   Afghanistan and Iraq war logs.

   But no one ever thought there was direct contact between Assange and
   Manning, Martin reports. Assange meeting or e-mailing Manning would be
   like the director of the Central Intelligence Agency meeting or e-mailing
   a CIA agent. The theory of the case is that Assange orchestrated the leak
   through cut outs deliberately designed to immunize himself from charges of
   espionage.

   In his own e-mails, Manning refers to himself as a source for Assange even
   though he did not give the documents to Assange but allegedly to a third
   person while home on Christmas leave, Martin reports.

   Attorney General Eric Holder has said the Justice Department was
   considering filing espionage charges in the case.

   Meanwhile, Manning continues to be held in a military brig while the Army
   considers prosecuting him. He has been charged with illegally obtaining
   more than 150,000 secret cables and giving more than 50 of them and a
   classified video to an unauthorized person.

   Manning's lawyer told The Associated Press Friday that a mental-health
   investigation to determine if Manning can stand trial will likely begin in
   February.
   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-01-26 15:23:28</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-01-29 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1112549_fw-ct-assange-manning-link-not-key-to-wikileaks-case-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1112696</id>
    <title>Re: When Hedge funds attack
</title>
    <description>   they actually do expropriate... ask J.C. Flowers!

   It is a perfect way to pass the buck, Europeans know this game and have
   played it for centuries:

   - pick some rich people, CHECK
   - preferably American, CHECK
   - preferably dining in an expensive Manhattan restaurant, CHECK
   - with a private dining room, CHECK
   - blame them for everything, including the Black Death, CHECK
   - build some shower rooms... getting there

   Robert Reinfrank wrote:

     Having dinner and taking each others' temperature is not colluding or
     illegal. However, with all their huffing and puffing about the euro,
     Eurozone governments are essentially saying that it is illegal for any
     one to question the integrity of their currency (or public finances, or
     whatever). Hence, they intimidate and threaten to--if they don't
     actually-- expropriate, regulate, tax, sue, and imprison.  Government is
     going to bully and scare every which way it can, and hedge funds are an
     easy, high-profile target-- "hedge fund" packs even more punch than
     "speculators," and everyone knows how they caused the financial crisis,
     right? This is simply a diversionary tactic. 

     Peter Zeihan wrote:

       if they are actually colluding, the JD had better go after them

       making market bets is one thing -- actively collaborating in doing so
       is flatly illegal

       Marko Papic wrote:

         Interesting stuff... Why is the Justice Department going after hedge
         funds? Pressure from Europe?

         March 4, 2010
         http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/04/business/global/04bets.html?pagewanted=print

              Traders Seek Out the Next Greece in an Ailing Europe

         By NELSON D. SCHWARTZ and GRAHAM BOWLEY

         Is Spain the next Greece? Or Italy? Or Portugal?

         Even as Greece pledged anew on Wednesday to rein in its runaway
         budget deficit, briefly easing the anxiety over its perilous
         finances, traders on both sides of the Atlantic weighed the risks -
         and potential rewards - posed by the groaning debts of other
         European governments.

         While investors welcomed news that Athens would raise taxes and cut
         spending by $6.5 billion this year, analysts warned the moves might
         not be enough to avert a bailout for Greece or to contain the crisis
         shaking Europe and its common currency, the euro.

         Indeed, some banks and hedge funds have already begun to turn their
         attention to other indebted nations, particularly Portugal, Spain,
         Italy and, to a lesser degree, Ireland.

         The role of such traders has become increasingly controversial in
         Europe and the United States. The Justice Department's antitrust
         division is examining whether at least four hedge funds colluded on
         a bet against the euro last month.

         "If the problems of Greece aren't addressed now, there is a risk the
         market will focus on the next weakest link in the chain," said Jim
         Caron, global head of interest rate strategy at Morgan Stanley.

         Whatever the outcome in Athens, the debt crisis in Europe threatens
         to tip the financial, as well as political, balance of power across
         the Continent. With Germany and France emerging as the most likely
         rescuers, leaders in Berlin and Paris could end up dictating fiscal
         policy in Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain.

         And in the months ahead, fears about the growing debt burden
         elsewhere in Europe are likely to return, according to investors and
         strategists. That is particularly worrying given that Western
         European countries must raise more than half a trillion dollars this
         year to refinance existing debts and cover their widening budget
         gaps.

         The way fear can spread from capital to capital reminds Mr. Caron of
         how the American financial crisis played out. "What people are doing
         in the markets is no different from what they did with the banks,"
         he said. "First it was Bear Stearns, then it was Lehman Brothers and
         so on. That's what people are worried about."

         France and Germany are emerging as the crucial backers of any
         lifeline for Greece, but they have slow growth and budget troubles
         of their own - deficits equaling 6.3 percent of gross domestic
         product in Germany and 7.5 percent in France. And among voters in
         both countries, "there is very little appetite for rescues," said
         Marco Annunziata, chief economist for Unicredit.

         The most vulnerable country after Greece, some analysts say, is
         Spain, which has been mired in a deep recession. Facing an
         unemployment rate of 20 percent, a budget gap of more than 10
         percent of gross domestic product, and an economy expected to shrink
         by 0.4 percent this year, Madrid has little wiggle room if investors
         shun an expected 85 billion euros in new bond offerings this year.

         Spain's neighbor Portugal is also vulnerable. Large budget and trade
         deficits, combined with a shortage of domestic savings, leave
         Portugal dependent on foreign investors. And, as in Greece, there
         may be little political will to slash spending or raise taxes.

         That's in sharp contrast to Ireland, which had been a source of
         anxiety last year. New austerity measures, including a government
         hiring freeze and public sector wage cuts, have put it in a stronger
         position as it raises 19 billion euros this year.

         The Italian government is also heavily indebted - it has more than
         $2 trillion in total exposure - but it is also in a slightly
         stronger position than Spain or Portugal because its economy is
         expected to grow by 0.9 percent this year and 1.0 percent next year.
         In addition, its budget is not as far out of whack, with the deficit
         this year expected to equal 5.4 percent of G.D.P.

         According to Kenneth J. Heinz of Hedge Fund Research, the big hedge
         funds are now evaluating the response by other European countries in
         extending a lifeline to Greece before they probe weaknesses and
         opportunities in other countries.

         Hedge funds, banks and other institutions are still wagering on a
         drop in the euro as well as the British pound.

         Those trades have been controversial for months in Europe. But the
         debate shifted to the United States on Wednesday, after it emerged
         that at least four hedge funds had been asked by the Justice
         Department to turn over trading records and other documents. That
         request followed a dinner in New York last month where, among
         several other subjects, representatives of some of these hedge funds
         discussed betting against the euro.

         The funds that received the letters - Greenlight Capital, SAC
         Capitol Advisors, Paulson &amp; Company and Soros Fund Management - are
         among the best-known names in the hedge fund universe. Greenlight
         and SAC declined to comment, as did the Justice Department. Paulson
         &amp; Company, whose representatives did not attend the dinner, also
         declined to comment.

         In a statement, Michael Vachon, a spokesman for Soros Fund
         Management, denied any wrongdoing and said, "It has become
         commonplace to direct attention toward George Soros whenever
         currency markets are in the news."

         The dinner, in a private room at the Park Avenue Townhouse
         restaurant in Manhattan on Feb. 2, involved about 20 people and was
         characterized as an "ideas round table" by several who attended. But
         people present at the dinner or knowledgeable about the discussion
         said the idea of shorting the euro occupied only a few minutes of
         the conversation.

         The presentation on the euro, by SAC, lasted less than five minutes,
         according to these people.

         Notes provided by one of the firms that attended the dinner
         summarized the discussion on the euro state: "Greece is important
         but not that important; instead you have to start thinking about
         every other country. What's after Greece? Spain, Ireland, Portugal."

         James S. Chanos, a hedge fund investor who has not been making bets
         on the euro, defended the positions taken by hedge funds, calling
         the inquiries into their activities "witch hunts."

         "Hedge funds and short-sellers are being blamed for the failings of
         other people," he said. Nevertheless, the anxiety in Europe is
         reflected on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, where trading in
         futures on the euro soared to a record $60 billion in February - up
         71 percent from a year ago.

         "The Greek story is putting downward pressure on the euro," said
         Derek Sammann, a managing director at the CME. According to CME
         data, hedge funds are in their most bearish position in a decade in
         shorting the euro, said Mary Ann Bartels of Bank of America Merrill
         Lynch.

         "They have been short for a while, but in the past two weeks have
         really pressed it," she said.

                U.S. Probes Hedge Fund Bets Against Euro: Source

         whole article is interesting

         By REUTERS
         http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2010/03/03/business/business-us-markets-euro-investigation.html?_r=1&amp;pagewanted=print

         Filed at 1:32 p.m. ET

         NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. Justice Department has launched an
         investigation into whether hedge funds might have acted together in
         betting against the euro, a source familiar with the situation said
         on Wednesday.

         The Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter,
         said the department has asked hedge funds including SAC Capital
         Advisors LP, Greenlight Capital Inc, Soros Fund Management LLC and
         Paulson &amp; Co to retain trading records and emails relating to the
         euro.

         SAC, Greenlight and Paulson declined comment to Reuters about the
         reported request, while Soros Fund Management failed to respond to
         inquiries. The Justice Department also declined to comment.

         The euro has come under selling pressure during the Greek debt
         crisis, losing over 10 percent since November, and the newspaper
         said the request, dated February 26, coincided with its article
         describing gatherings of hedge fund managers where the euro was
         discussed.

         The Justice Department's letter said the antitrust division "has
         opened an investigation into agreements among various hedge funds
         that trade euro contracts," the newspaper quoted a source as saying.

         The letter requested that the funds "preserve all documents" and
         electronic communications relating to agreements to trade the euro
         or communications about agreements to trade currencies, the source
         said.

         The letter being described matches the description of a preservation
         order, where the Justice Department asks for information to be
         retained that would help them determine if there was a plan to
         collude or enforcement of that collusion, said Andrew Gavil, who
         teaches antitrust law at Howard University.

         "Either could be very damning and could lead to criminal
         indictments," he said.

         The reported Justice Department probe comes at a time when financial
         institutions are facing scrutiny over their role in the Greek
         financial crisis.

         Critics accuse Wall Street firms of exacerbating the crisis by first
         helping governments mask their debts through derivatives deals only
         to benefit later by driving down the value of securities related to
         them.

         Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S.
         central bank was looking into derivatives transactions that
         financial firms made with Greece.

         But the idea of collusion among hedge fund traders made no sense to
         Evan Stewart, an antitrust expert with the law firm Zuckerman
         Spaeder LLP.

         "Hedge fund managers tend to.... make their own bets and generally
         guard the secrecy of their own bets because they think they're
         smarter than the next guy," he said.

         "It's hard to understand what the motivation would be for hedge fund
         managers to collude... but maybe there's some evidence that they
         tried."

         Adair Turner, chairman of Britain's Financial Services Authority,
         said on Tuesday that the total amount of CDS short positions in the
         area of Greek problem debt was only 3 percent to 4 percent of
         outstanding Greek sovereign debt.

         "The biggest driver is confidence levels and actions of long
         investors," he said.

         (Reporting Jennifer Ablan in New York and Diane Bartz in Washington;
         Editing by Neil Fullick and Tim Dobbyn)

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-03-04 17:59:49</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2011-03-15 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1112696_re-when-hedge-funds-attack-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>econ@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:econ@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1113282</id>
    <title>RE: ANALYST TASKING -  CLIENT QUESTION - Israeli strike against Iran
</title>
    <description>   When they loose their HUMINT coverage they will move. 
    
   Thus far, elements of their disruption strategy has been working from what
   I understand. 
    
   When the window closes, BB knows what he must do.  We won't be given any
   warning, similar to their strike on Abu Jihad. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Nate Hughes
   Sent: Wednesday, February 24, 2010 4:56 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: ANALYST TASKING - CLIENT QUESTION - Israeli strike against
   Iran
   The Israelis are wily bastards, so you can't rule anything out.

   They should be able to range most targets in Iran with their newer Jericho
   ballistic missiles, though that's not going to get you bunker busting
   without nukes and they'd only use -- if any -- a handful because that's
   part of their nuclear deterrent.

   Same deal with the sub-launched cruise missiles. But these are thought to
   be more limited in range and also aren't going to get you either the
   bunker busting or quantities you need.

   So you need the air force. The strike package would be impacted
   significantly by the route. This is a big, complex operation no matter how
   you slice it. But the shorter the route, the more targets they can hit.

   But the US would take several weeks to do this. That isn't realistic for
   the izzies. They'll conduct BDA and might be able to get a few follow-on
   strikes but they don't have friends and the airspace issue is key.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Peter Zeihan &lt;zeihan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Wed, 24 Feb 2010 16:44:15 -0600
   To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: ANALYST TASKING - CLIENT QUESTION - Israeli strike against
   Iran
   that's not the question -- the question is that if they go solo, what can
   they hit iran with?

   Nate Hughes wrote:

     If Iran crosses a red line, yes, Israel will act unilaterally if forced
     to. Exactly where the red line for Israel is -- that's a key unknown
     because Israel is laying on the rhetoric pretty think right now in order
     to shift perceptions and get more prompt, effective action.

     As far as we know, Israel's Jericho arsenal of ballistic missiles is
     equipped primarily as part of the nuclear deterrent -- something it'll
     need if it has any doubts about the effectiveness of its attempt to
     destroy Iran's nuclear weapons program. At the end of the day, they do,
     because they know that unilaterally, they'll only be setting it back,
     not making a good shot at destroying it.

     Thus even when it comes down to the unilateral strike, there will be
     some interest in implicating the U.S. in the conflict and getting it to
     come in and act.

     But the attack itself will likely center around an air campaign. Some
     ballistic missiles and submarine-launched cruise missiles may be used to
     supplement the attack, but without the use of nuclear weapons, only a
     large air campaign has the capacity to haul the ordnance to the number
     of sites necessary to even attempt to pull this off -- especially the
     heavy 5,000 lb bunker busters Israel would use to attempt to destroy
     hardened and deeply buried facilities.

     Airspace is an issue, and using Iraq's presents a number of political
     problems (not the least that it is controlled by the USAF). How that is
     addressed will be a significant factor in how this plays out and the
     length of an air campaign that Israel can sustain -- and not just the
     practical issue of range, but the political issue of the use of which
     airspace.

     The Israelis can absolutely sustain air operations at a high rate of
     intensity, but at that range, they have very limited tanker assets and
     generally go for more of the hit and be gone before anybody knows they
     were there angle. But that's not how a complex air campaign works --
     they need to be able to carry out battle damage assessments and conduct
     follow on strikes. Not clear how long that will be feasible which is
     part of the problem to begin with.

     Korena, I'll be offline for a bit, but give me a call if you need to
     talk this.

     On 2/24/2010 5:30 PM, Karen Hooper wrote:

       Team,

       In regards to an Israeli strike against Iran, we have written that the
       range and complexity of such an air campaign means that an air
       campaign carried out in coordination with the United States would
       likely be significantly more comprehensive and more effective -
       something Israel wants. However, should all diplomatic efforts fail
       and in the worst case scenario, do we think Israel would strike
       against Iran without assistance from the U.S. regardless if it is a
       comprehensive attack or not? Does Israel even have the capability to
       solely launch strikes against Iran without the assistance of the U.S.?
       If so, how long of a strike could Israel sustain with its current
       missile load--what capability does Israel have to sustain an air
       campaign to strike all desired targets?

       Feedback needed by COB. Let me know if you have any questions.

       --
       Karen Hooper
       Director of Operations
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com

       --
</description>
    <date>2010-02-25 01:39:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-27 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1113282_re-analyst-tasking-client-question-israeli-strike-against.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>nathan.hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1113375</id>
    <title>Albania 
</title>
    <description>   From TrapWire in response to Marko's questions --
    

   Fred -- Just in. Haven't had time to give a good scrub/spell check etc. so
   might be a bit raw. (His English is excellent, but not perfect).  M

   ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
      

    

    

    

               1. Any thoughts on what repercussions unrest in Albania could
   have for the region as a whole?

    

               Instability in Albania generally means instability within the
   Albanian diaspora in the region.

    

   .         Kosova: Just came out of general elections and is now facing an
   internal crises . The winning party does not have enough votes to elect a
   PM or create a new government. At the same time, the leadership of the
   winning party has been accused for war crimes and trafficking in human
   organs by a Swiss reporter. These issues have endangered the current
   political process towards Kosovo independence. Negotiations with Serbia
   are now on hold. An unstable political situation in Albania will be a big
   loss for Kosovo. Kosovo has no representation in international
   institutions and Albania is her biggest supporter and ally regarding
   Kosovo foreign policy.  A crisis in Albania will make the dialogue between
   Kosovo and Serbia, which is seeking a division of northern Kosovo.

    

   .         Macedonia: Our neighboring country has a population of 30%
   Albanians, who have been in constant conflict with the Macedonian
   government regarding their rights as a minority. Macedonian-Albanians are
   divided in to two groups:  one that is more liberal and has assimilated
   into Macedonian society; and the other a much more radical group that is
   in conflict Macedonian policies. Add to this Macedonia's on-going conflict
   with Greece, and one could speculate that any major crisis in Albania will
   only compound the problems inside Macedonia -- particularly for those
   Albanians seeking greater rights inside Macedonia. There is a precedence
   for this problem during the 1997 conflict in Albania.

    

   .         Greece: Our only neighboring country with EU membership is still
   going through a very bad political and economic crises itself. There are
   almost 1.5 million Albanians living in Greece -- many are illegal
   immigrants working illegally. Another crises in Albania could likely fuel
   another mass exodus to Greece (and Italy) -- particularly now that
   Albanians can finally travel without visas in Europe.   

    

   2.  After 1997 anarchy, weapons flowed across the borders to Kosovo and
   Macedonia. Any chance that another crisis has an effect on neighboring
   countries?

    

               In my opinion, it is unlikely the current situation will
   deteriorate to the point of 1997, which was fueled by economic collapse
   rather than only political differences. Albanians still have strong
   memories and feelings about this period, and would likely try to avoid a
   repeat...particularly as the only groups who will profit from another
   crises would be the weapons, drugs, and fuel traffickers .

          

    

               3.  What is Berisha's role in neighboring Kosovo and
   Macedonia. Does he have influence with Kosovo leadership? Or Macedonian
   Albanian leadership?

    

               Generally speaking, Berisha does not have much of a role in
   the region. He continues to be viewed as a model of the old leadership.
   Clearly, Kosovo will always          need the support of the Albanian PM
   and his government; however, many Kosovars remember that Berisha gave only
   lukewarm support to the KLA, and was   believed to have profited
   personally by allowing fuel shipments into Serbia and Montenegro, despite
   the NATO embargo at the time. Berisha is still viewed as            
   having too close of ties to Serbia -- one of his closest contacts is Damir
   Fasllic, a character who is believed to have contacts at the highest
   levels of the Serbian           government. Berisha does not appear to
   have particularly strong ties to Macedonia and, with the loss of
   Jukanovic, probably has limited influence in Montenegro as          well

            

    

                4.  If there is a change in government to Edvin Rama, would
   it in any way change the situation in Albania or region?

    

               Edvin Rama is the leader of the Albanian opposition Socialist
   Party -- which represents about 50 % of the Albanian voters. Rama is known
   as a head-strong and       somewhat radical figure amongst the
   international community in Albania. He is not very good at dialoguing --
   often creating situations that neither side can win.           Despite
   these weaknesses, Rama represents the "modern" leader that many Albanians
   have been hoping for since 1990. His work in modernizing and cleaning-up
               the capital has made him very popular, and given him the image
   of someone who can get things done for the people (He has twice been
   re-elected as mayor).          Rama's popularity and modern thinking has
   been commented on favorably by many EU leaders and representatives.

    
</description>
    <date>2011-01-26 01:09:57</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1113375_albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
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      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1113558</id>
    <title>Re: Thoughts on Der Spiegel?
</title>
    <description>   well we really have no way of determining Daneshjoo's or Fakhrizadeh's
   exact involvement in the program. doesn't mean the claims in the article
   are necessarily false
   On Jan 25, 2010, at 12:10 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     This article has some oddities. First Kamran Daneshjoo is an A-Dogg ally
     and thus hasn*t been around for a long time. Until recently he was EC
     chief. The nuclear establishment is very large. Between the AEO, SNSC,
     IRGC, the SL*s office, Majlis* Nat*l Security and Foreign Policy
     Committee, he doesn*t stand a chance to be a key player. The Defense
     Ministry has an input into the nuclear establishment but it is one of
     many players. The other guy, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who is an IRGC officer
     (unknown rank) and is a nuclear physicist is also an obscure guy. It
     also seems like the article uses Asgari and Amiri*s involvement to
     rattle the Iranian chain as they have been concerned about it.  
      
     From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Reva Bhalla
     Sent: January-25-10 12:42 PM
     To: Analyst List
     Subject: Thoughts on Der Spiegel?
      
     Any thoughts on Der Spiegel as an outlet for Mossad or any other
     intelligence agencies?  Have we seen examples of this in the past?  They
     have some insane detail here (read the second half) where they claim
     they've got all this access to a classified doc on Iran's nuclear
     weapons program
      
      
      

      01/25/2010

      

                           The Secret Nuclear Dossier

Intelligence from Tehran Elevates Concern in the West

     By Dieter Bednarz, Erich Follath and Holger Stark

     The West has long been suspicous of Iran's nuclear program. SPIEGEL has
     obtained new documents on secret tests and leadership structures that
     call into question Tehran's claims to be exclusively interested in the
     peaceful use of the technology.

     It was probably the last attempt to defuse the nuclear dispute with
     Tehran without having to turn to dramatic new sanctions or military
     action. The plan, devised at the White House in October, had Russian and
     Chinese support and came with the seal of approval of the US president.
     It was clearly a Barack Obama operation.

      
     Under the plan, Iran would send a large share of its low enriched
     uranium abroad, all at once, for a period of one year, receiving
     internationally monitored quantities of nuclear fuel elements in return.
     It was a deal that provided benefits for all sides. The Iranians would
     have enough material for what they claim is their civilian nuclear
     program, as well as for scientific experiments, and the world could be
     assured that Tehran would not be left with enough fissile material for
     its secret domestic uranium enrichment program -- and for what the West
     assumes is the building of a nuclear bomb.
      
      

    PHOTO GALLERY

     .         &lt;image001.jpg&gt;
     .         &lt;image002.jpg&gt;
     .         &lt;image003.jpg&gt;
     3  Photos
     Photo Gallery: Iran's Nuclear Program
      

     Tehran's leaders initially agreed to the proposal "in principle." But
     for weeks they put off the international community with vague allusions
     to a "final response," and when that response finally materialized, it
     came in the form of a "counter-proposal." Under this proposal, Tehran
     insisted that the exchange could not take place all at once, but only in
     stages, and that the material would not be sent abroad. Instead, Tehran
     wanted the exchange to take place in Iran.

     Once again, the Iranian leadership has rebuffed the West with phony
     promises of its willingness to compromise. The government in Tehran
     officially rejected the nuclear exchange plan last Tuesday. To make
     matters worse, after the West's discovery of a secret uranium enrichment
     plant near Qom, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad defiantly announced that
     he would never give in, and in fact would build 10 more enrichment
     plants instead.

     Highly Volatile Material

     But officials in Washington and European capitals are currently not as
     concerned about these cocky, unrealistic announcements as they are about
     intelligence reports based on sources within Iran and information from
     high-ranking defectors. The new information, say American experts, will
     likely prompt the US government to reassess the risks coming from the
     mullah-controlled country in the coming days and raise the alarm level
     from yellow to red. Skeptics who in the past, sometimes justifiably so,
     treated alarmist reports as Israeli propaganda, are also extremely
     worried. They include the experts from the United Nations International
     Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whose goal is prevent the spread of nuclear
     weapons.

     After an extensive internal investigation, IAEA officials concluded that
     a computer obtained from Iran years ago contains highly volatile
     material. The laptop reached the Americans through Germany's foreign
     intelligence agency, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), and was then
     passed on to the IAEA in Vienna.

     Reports by Ali Reza Asgari, Iran's former deputy defense minister who
     managed to defect to the United States, where he was given a new
     identity, proved to be just as informative. Nuclear scientist Shahram
     Amiri, who "disappeared" during a pilgrimage to Mecca in June 2009, is
     also believed to have particularly valuable information. The Iranian
     authorities accused Saudi Arabia and the United States of kidnapping the
     expert, but it is more likely that he defected.

     Iran's government has come under pressure as a result of the new
     charges. They center on the question of who exactly is responsible for
     the country's nuclear program -- and what this says about its true
     nature. The government has consistently told the IAEA that the only
     agency involved in uranium enrichment is the National Energy Council,
     and that its work was exclusively dedicated to the peaceful use of the
     technology.

     But if the claims are true that have been made in an intelligence
     dossier currently under review in diplomatic circles in Washington,
     Vienna, Tel Aviv and Berlin, portions of which SPIEGEL has obtained,
     this is a half-truth at best.

     According to the classified document, there is a secret military branch
     of Iran's nuclear research program that answers to the Defense Ministry
     and has clandestine structures. The officials who have read the dossier
     conclude that the government in Tehran is serious about developing a
     bomb, and that its plans are well advanced. There are two names that
     appear again and again in the documents, particularly in connection with
     the secret weapons program: Kamran Daneshjoo and Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.

     Secret Heart of Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program

     Daneshjoo, 52, Iran's new minister of science, research and technology,
     is also responsible for the country's nuclear energy agency, and he is
     seen as a close ally of Ahmadinejad. Opposition leaders say he is a
     hardliner who was partly responsible for the apparently rigged
     presidential election in June. Daneshjoo's biography includes only
     marginal references to his possible nuclear expertise. In describing
     himself, the man with the steely-gray beard writes that he studied
     engineering in the British city of Manchester, and then spent several
     years working at a Tehran "Center for Aviation Technology." Western
     experts believe that this center developed into a sub-organization of
     the Defense Ministry known as the FEDAT, an acronym for the "Department
     for Expanded High-Technology Applications" -- the secret heart of Iran's
     nuclear weapons program. The head of that organization is Mohsen
     Fakhrizadeh, 48, an officer in the Revolutionary Guard and a professor
     at Tehran's Imam Hossein University.

     Western intelligence agencies believe that although the nuclear energy
     agency and the FEDAT compete in some areas, they have agreed to a
     division of labor on the central issue of nuclear weapons research, with
     the nuclear agency primarily supervising uranium enrichment while the
     FEDAT is involved in the construction of a nuclear warhead to be used in
     Iran's Shahab missiles. Experts believe that Iran's scientists could
     produce a primitive, truck-sized version of the bomb this year, but that
     it would have to be compressed to a size that would fit into a nuclear
     warhead to yield the strategic threat potential that has Israel and the
     West so alarmed -- and that they could reach that stage by sometime
     between 2012 and 2014.

     The Iranians are believed to have conducted non-nuclear tests of a
     detonating mechanism for a nuclear bomb more than six years ago. The
     challenge in the technology is to uniformly ignite the conventional
     explosives surrounding the uranium core -- which is needed to produce
     the desired chain reaction. It is believed that the test series was
     conducted with a warhead encased in aluminum. In other words, everything
     but the core was "real." According to the reports, the Tehran engineers
     used thin fibers and a measuring circuit board in place of the fissile
     material. This enabled them to measure the shock waves and photograph
     flashes that simulate the detonation of a nuclear bomb with some degree
     of accuracy. The results were apparently so encouraging that the Iranian
     government has since classified the technology as "feasible."

     SPIEGEL obtained access to a FEDAT organizational chart and a list of
     the names of scientists working for the agency. The Vienna-based IAEA
     also has these documents, but the Iranian president claims that they are
     forged and are being used to discredit his country. After reporting two
     years ago that the Iranians had frozen their nuclear weapons research in
     2003, the CIA and other intelligence agencies will probably paint a
     significantly more sobering scenario just as the UN Security Council is
     considering tougher sanctions against Iran.

     Mulling Sanctions

     When France assumes the Council's rotating chairmanship in February,
     Washington could push for a showdown. While Moscow is not ruling out
     additional punitive measures, China, which has negotiated billions in
     energy deals with Iran, is more likely to block such measures.

     China could, however, approve "smart" sanctions, such as travel
     restrictions for senior members of the Revolutionary Guard and nuclear
     scientists. Fakhrizadeh is already on a list of officials subject to
     such restrictions, and Daneshjoo could well be added in the future.

     But the West would presumably be on its own when enforcing sanctions
     that would be truly harmful to Iran -- and to its own, profitable trade
     relations with Tehran. The most effective trade weapon would be a fuel
     embargo. Because of a lack of refinery capacity Iran, which has the
     world's second-largest oil reserves, imports almost half of the gasoline
     it uses. Sanctions would trigger a sharp rise in the price of gasoline,
     inevitably leading to social unrest. Experts are divided over whether it
     would be directed against the unpopular regime or if the country's
     leaders could once again inflame the Iranian people against the "evil
     West."

     This leaves the military option. Apart from the political consequences
     and the possibility of counter-attacks, bombing Iran's nuclear
     facilities would be extremely difficult. The nuclear experts have
     literally buried themselves and their facilities underground, in
     locations that would be virtually impossible to reach with conventional
     weapons.

     While even Israeli experts are skeptical over how much damage bombing
     the facilities could do to the nuclear program, the normally levelheaded
     US General David Petraeus sounded downright belligerent when asked
     whether the Iranian nuclear facilities could be attacked militarily.
     "Well, they certainly can be bombed," he said just two weeks ago in
     Washington.

     Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan
</description>
    <date>2010-01-25 19:13:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-11 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1113558_re-thoughts-on-der-spiegel-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1113572</id>
    <title>RE: Thoughts on Der Spiegel?
</title>
    <description>If you are going by what defectors tell you then it is also reasonable to
assume that the Iranians have moved things around since the defections. 

-----Original Message-----
From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
On Behalf Of Fred Burton
Sent: January-25-10 1:43 PM
To: Analyst List
Subject: Re: Thoughts on Der Spiegel?

Western experts believe that this center developed into a
sub-organization of the Defense Ministry known as the FEDAT, an acronym
for the "Department for Expanded High-Technology Applications" -- the
secret heart of Iran's nuclear weapons program. The head of that
organization is Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, 48, an officer in the Revolutionary
Guard and a professor at Tehran's Imam Hossein University.

** This kind of granularity is critical.


Reva Bhalla wrote:
&gt; Any thoughts on Der Spiegel as an outlet for Mossad or any other
&gt; intelligence agencies?  Have we seen examples of this in the past?  They
&gt; have some insane detail here (read the second half) where they claim
&gt; they've got all this access to a classified doc on Iran's nuclear
&gt; weapons program
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt;           01/25/2010
&gt; 
&gt;  
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt;   The Secret Nuclear Dossier
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt;     Intelligence from Tehran Elevates Concern in the West
&gt; 
&gt; By Dieter Bednarz, Erich Follath and Holger Stark
&gt; 
&gt; *The West has long been suspicous of Iran's nuclear program. SPIEGEL has
&gt; obtained new documents on secret tests and leadership structures that
&gt; call into question Tehran's claims to be exclusively interested in the
&gt; peaceful use of the technology.*
&gt; 
&gt; It was probably the last attempt to defuse the nuclear dispute with
&gt; Tehran without having to turn to dramatic new sanctions or military
&gt; action. The plan, devised at the White House in October, had Russian and
&gt; Chinese support and came with the seal of approval of the US president.
&gt; It was clearly a Barack Obama operation.
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; Under the plan, Iran would send a large share of its low enriched
&gt; uranium abroad, all at once, for a period of one year, receiving
&gt; internationally monitored quantities of nuclear fuel elements in return.
&gt; It was a deal that provided benefits for all sides. The Iranians would
&gt; have enough material for what they claim is their civilian nuclear
&gt; program, as well as for scientific experiments, and the world could be
&gt; assured that Tehran would not be left with enough fissile material for
&gt; its secret domestic uranium enrichment program -- and for what the West
&gt; assumes is the building of a nuclear bomb.
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt;         PHOTO GALLERY
&gt; 
&gt;     * &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;
&gt;     * &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;
&gt;     * &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; 3  Photos
&gt; *Photo Gallery:* Iran's Nuclear Program
&gt; &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; Tehran's leaders initially agreed to the proposal "in principle." But
&gt; for weeks they put off the international community with vague allusions
&gt; to a "final response," and when that response finally materialized, it
&gt; came in the form of a "counter-proposal." Under this proposal, Tehran
&gt; insisted that the exchange could not take place all at once, but only in
&gt; stages, and that the material would not be sent abroad. Instead, Tehran
&gt; wanted the exchange to take place in Iran.
&gt; 
&gt; Once again, the Iranian leadership has rebuffed the West with phony
&gt; promises of its willingness to compromise. The government in Tehran
&gt; officially rejected the nuclear exchange plan last Tuesday. To make
&gt; matters worse, after the West's discovery of a secret uranium enrichment
&gt; plant near Qom, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad defiantly announced that
&gt; he would never give in, and in fact would build 10 more enrichment
&gt; plants instead.
&gt; 
&gt; *Highly Volatile Material*
&gt; 
&gt; But officials in Washington and European capitals are currently not as
&gt; concerned about these cocky, unrealistic announcements as they are about
&gt; intelligence reports based on sources within Iran and information from
&gt; high-ranking defectors. The new information, say American experts, will
&gt; likely prompt the US government to reassess the risks coming from the
&gt; mullah-controlled country in the coming days and raise the alarm level
&gt; from yellow to red. Skeptics who in the past, sometimes justifiably so,
&gt; treated alarmist reports as Israeli propaganda, are also extremely
&gt; worried. They include the experts from the United Nations International
&gt; Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whose goal is prevent the spread of nuclear
&gt; weapons.
&gt; 
&gt; After an extensive internal investigation, IAEA officials concluded that
&gt; a computer obtained from Iran years ago contains highly volatile
&gt; material. The laptop reached the Americans through Germany's foreign
&gt; intelligence agency, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), and was then
&gt; passed on to the IAEA in Vienna.
&gt; 
&gt; Reports by Ali Reza Asgari, Iran's former deputy defense minister who
&gt; managed to defect to the United States, where he was given a new
&gt; identity, proved to be just as informative. Nuclear scientist Shahram
&gt; Amiri, who "disappeared" during a pilgrimage to Mecca in June 2009, is
&gt; also believed to have particularly valuable information. The Iranian
&gt; authorities accused Saudi Arabia and the United States of kidnapping the
&gt; expert, but it is more likely that he defected.
&gt; 
&gt; Iran's government has come under pressure as a result of the new
&gt; charges. They center on the question of who exactly is responsible for
&gt; the country's nuclear program -- and what this says about its true
&gt; nature. The government has consistently told the IAEA that the only
&gt; agency involved in uranium enrichment is the National Energy Council,
&gt; and that its work was exclusively dedicated to the peaceful use of the
&gt; technology.
&gt; 
&gt; But if the claims are true that have been made in an intelligence
&gt; dossier currently under review in diplomatic circles in Washington,
&gt; Vienna, Tel Aviv and Berlin, portions of which SPIEGEL has obtained,
&gt; this is a half-truth at best.
&gt; 
&gt; According to the classified document, there is a secret military branch
&gt; of Iran's nuclear research program that answers to the Defense Ministry
&gt; and has clandestine structures. The officials who have read the dossier
&gt; conclude that the government in Tehran is serious about developing a
&gt; bomb, and that its plans are well advanced. There are two names that
&gt; appear again and again in the documents, particularly in connection with
&gt; the secret weapons program: Kamran Daneshjoo and Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.
&gt; 
&gt; *Secret Heart of Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program*
&gt; 
&gt; Daneshjoo, 52, Iran's new minister of science, research and technology,
&gt; is also responsible for the country's nuclear energy agency, and he is
&gt; seen as a close ally of Ahmadinejad. Opposition leaders say he is a
&gt; hardliner who was partly responsible for the apparently rigged
&gt; presidential election in June. Daneshjoo's biography includes only
&gt; marginal references to his possible nuclear expertise. In describing
&gt; himself, the man with the steely-gray beard writes that he studied
&gt; engineering in the British city of Manchester, and then spent several
&gt; years working at a Tehran "Center for Aviation Technology." Western
&gt; experts believe that this center developed into a sub-organization of
&gt; the Defense Ministry known as the FEDAT, an acronym for the "Department
&gt; for Expanded High-Technology Applications" -- the secret heart of Iran's
&gt; nuclear weapons program. The head of that organization is Mohsen
&gt; Fakhrizadeh, 48, an officer in the Revolutionary Guard and a professor
&gt; at Tehran's Imam Hossein University.
&gt; 
&gt; Western intelligence agencies believe that although the nuclear energy
&gt; agency and the FEDAT compete in some areas, they have agreed to a
&gt; division of labor on the central issue of nuclear weapons research, with
&gt; the nuclear agency primarily supervising uranium enrichment while the
&gt; FEDAT is involved in the construction of a nuclear warhead to be used in
&gt; Iran's Shahab missiles. Experts believe that Iran's scientists could
&gt; produce a primitive, truck-sized version of the bomb this year, but that
&gt; it would have to be compressed to a size that would fit into a nuclear
&gt; warhead to yield the strategic threat potential that has Israel and the
&gt; West so alarmed -- and that they could reach that stage by sometime
&gt; between 2012 and 2014.
&gt; 
&gt; The Iranians are believed to have conducted non-nuclear tests of a
&gt; detonating mechanism for a nuclear bomb more than six years ago. The
&gt; challenge in the technology is to uniformly ignite the conventional
&gt; explosives surrounding the uranium core -- which is needed to produce
&gt; the desired chain reaction. It is believed that the test series was
&gt; conducted with a warhead encased in aluminum. In other words, everything
&gt; but the core was "real." According to the reports, the Tehran engineers
&gt; used thin fibers and a measuring circuit board in place of the fissile
&gt; material. This enabled them to measure the shock waves and photograph
&gt; flashes that simulate the detonation of a nuclear bomb with some degree
&gt; of accuracy. The results were apparently so encouraging that the Iranian
&gt; government has since classified the technology as "feasible."
&gt; 
&gt; SPIEGEL obtained access to a FEDAT organizational chart and a list of
&gt; the names of scientists working for the agency. The Vienna-based IAEA
&gt; also has these documents, but the Iranian president claims that they are
&gt; forged and are being used to discredit his country. After reporting two
&gt; years ago that the Iranians had frozen their nuclear weapons research in
&gt; 2003, the CIA and other intelligence agencies will probably paint a
&gt; significantly more sobering scenario just as the UN Security Council is
&gt; considering tougher sanctions against Iran.
&gt; 
&gt; *Mulling Sanctions*
&gt; 
&gt; When France assumes the Council's rotating chairmanship in February,
&gt; Washington could push for a showdown. While Moscow is not ruling out
&gt; additional punitive measures, China, which has negotiated billions in
&gt; energy deals with Iran, is more likely to block such measures.
&gt; 
&gt; China could, however, approve "smart" sanctions, such as travel
&gt; restrictions for senior members of the Revolutionary Guard and nuclear
&gt; scientists. Fakhrizadeh is already on a list of officials subject to
&gt; such restrictions, and Daneshjoo could well be added in the future.
&gt; 
&gt; But the West would presumably be on its own when enforcing sanctions
&gt; that would be truly harmful to Iran -- and to its own, profitable trade
&gt; relations with Tehran. The most effective trade weapon would be a fuel
&gt; embargo. Because of a lack of refinery capacity Iran, which has the
&gt; world's second-largest oil reserves, imports almost half of the gasoline
&gt; it uses. Sanctions would trigger a sharp rise in the price of gasoline,
&gt; inevitably leading to social unrest. Experts are divided over whether it
&gt; would be directed against the unpopular regime or if the country's
&gt; leaders could once again inflame the Iranian people against the "evil
West."
&gt; 
&gt; This leaves the military option. Apart from the political consequences
&gt; and the possibility of counter-attacks, bombing Iran's nuclear
&gt; facilities would be extremely difficult. The nuclear experts have
&gt; literally buried themselves and their facilities underground, in
&gt; locations that would be virtually impossible to reach with conventional
&gt; weapons.
&gt; 
&gt; While even Israeli experts are skeptical over how much damage bombing
&gt; the facilities could do to the nuclear program, the normally levelheaded
&gt; US General David Petraeus sounded downright belligerent when asked
&gt; whether the Iranian nuclear facilities could be attacked militarily.
&gt; "Well, they certainly can be bombed," he said just two weeks ago in
&gt; Washington.
&gt; 
&gt; /Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan/
&gt; 
</description>
    <date>2010-01-25 19:48:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-11 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1113572_re-thoughts-on-der-spiegel-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1113596</id>
    <title>Re: movements.org founder Cohen
</title>
    <description>The dude is a loose canon. 

GOOGLE is trying to stop his entry into Gaza now because the dude is
like scorched earth. 

Its unclear to GOOGLE if he's driving w/out a license, but GOOGLE
believes he's on a specific mission of "regime change" on the part of
leftest fools inside the WH who are using him for their agendas. 

I would hope the Shabak pick him up for "an interview". 

Kamran Bokhari wrote:
&gt; Speaking to him @ 6PM this evening.
&gt;
&gt; ------Original Message------
&gt; From: Scott Stewart
&gt; To: Fred Burton
&gt; To: 'Secure List'
&gt; Subject: RE: movements.org founder Cohen
&gt; Sent: Feb 11, 2011 1:34 PM
&gt;
&gt; Actually, he might be worth watching...
&gt;
&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt; From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
&gt; Sent: Friday, February 11, 2011 1:22 PM
&gt; To: Secure List
&gt; Subject: movements.org founder Cohen
&gt;
&gt; Is bound for Gaza Monday....he was in Tunisia BEFORE the shit hit the
&gt; fan and was in Cairo four days before Ghonim was nabbed...
&gt;
&gt; Check out movements.org public sponsor...(hint:  The place Stick worked.)
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;   
</description>
    <date>2011-02-11 19:42:49</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1113596_re-movements-org-founder-cohen-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1113965</id>
    <title>Re: discussion: who is next?
</title>
    <description>   Iran failed -- we could go back and bring up those reasons why
   (overestimation of the protesters by themselves, underestimation of A-Dogg
   and his base, and no real foreign access into that base to manipulate
   loyalties). There was plenty of access to tweeters, but this didn't speak
   to the regime that stood solid and did not fracture.

   Now in Egypt, there was extensive consultations between the military and
   foreign (the US) throughout the protests. We don't know what was told to
   whom, but we do know it was extensive. All this besides whatever the
   tweeters were sending in.

   I'm not sure if in Tunisia there was as extensive consultations between
   the military calling it quits on Ben Ali and any outside pressure or
   consultations?

   On 2/11/11 4:14 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     One major thing about this- Cohen has been working on this for a long
     time. Maybe not revolutions per se (I don't know his motives), but in
     spreading free speech and political organization through social media.
     He was the one who told twitter not to stop service during Iran 2009.

     Iran failed.

     Tunisia and egypt had underlying causes that social media was used as a
     tool. (Read the Sweekly, blah blah blah). Maybe they have figured out
     now how to target things. But I think they are much more like CANVAS
     providing training and better tools, so when the right situation comes
     about they are ready to go.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Mark Schroeder &lt;mark.schroeder@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 11 Feb 2011 13:45:37 -0600 (CST)
     To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: discussion: who is next?
     it would be pretty great to be able to fast-forward a couple of months
     and see who is next, and then walk it back. we all agree on that, we all
     agree on wanting to understand patterns.

     maybe there's just some small group of twitting free-lancers who are
     eager to stir up social protest movements, maybe they have an agenda,
     maybe they're just looking for a huge rush even if it risks trouble like
     being blindfolded and beaten in some stank cell.

     but if they're looking to stir up dissent among old-guard Arab regimes,
     and see where that goes as far as shaking them up, they won't be looking
     outside the Middle East, and they won't be looking at lower-ranking
     states. been there, done that.

     On 2/11/11 1:26 PM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

       Wait are you saying there is an intntnl conspiracy driving all this in
       a coordinated fashion?

       On 2011 Feb 11, at 14:14, Mark Schroeder &lt;mark.schroeder@stratfor.com&gt;
       wrote:

         Just to look at it in another way. On the one hand, there are states
         that are facing revolutionary/successionist pressures and that we
         can monitor the protests there.

         On the other hand, going off of Fred's thoughts of any
         Cohen/Google/WH thing going on -- who's higher in the ranking of
         significance that we could also look at as next? Tunisia was
         small-fry, to test out methods. Egypt was pretty big fry, and that
         was pretty successful timing-wise, less than 3 weeks. Going from
         Tunisia to Egypt to a chump state (say, Yemen) might not be the
         intention or desire. Not to rule those out -- protesters and their
         supporters will take what they can get --  and I'm not saying that
         protesting will get any easier (or success being likely) when going
         up in a ranking of significance, but now there are 2 case studies
         under the belt and next could be bigger and more juicy targets even
         if they will be difficult.

         On 2/11/11 12:16 PM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

           First Tunisia, now Egypt.
            
           While obviously protests are key to all this, bear in mind that at
           least in the Egyptian case this is more an internal military
           succession issue than a revolution, so we need to examine other
           states in the same light.

           Rather than respond to this thread, please start up new threads
           for each individual state that any of you think might be facing
           revolutionary/successionist pressure.

           Pls funnel your initial thoughts through Bayless so that we only
           have one thread per country.

           Remember: this is the question from all of our clients who are
           interested in the topic of Egypt.
</description>
    <date>2011-02-11 23:30:13</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-14 22:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1113965_re-discussion-who-is-next-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mark.schroeder@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1115826</id>
    <title>Re: US Bank - Dirty Money
</title>
    <description>   I have a cost. It is money spent on something and that has a profit.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Kevin Stech" &lt;kevin.stech@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 5 May 2011 15:07:13 -0500 (CDT)
   To: &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;; 'Karen Hooper'&lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;;
   'Sean Noonan'&lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;; 'Secure
   List'&lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: RE: US Bank - Dirty Money

   What do you mean by "flow through effect"

    

   From: George Friedman [mailto:friedman@att.blackberry.net]
   Sent: Thursday, May 05, 2011 15:05
   To: Kevin Stech; Karen Hooper; Sean Noonan; Secure List
   Subject: Re: US Bank - Dirty Money

    

   Those numbers assume a profit margin of 25 percent which is absurdly low.
   Moreover it fails to take into account that the primary cost is labor
   which has a massive flow through effect.

   The likely profit margin on drugs is about 80 percent for the primary
   transporter. No one is going to risk his life on a 25 percent margin deal.
   Youre better investing in other things without risk.

   Dying for a 25 percent return doesnt happen. Smuggle drugs is dramarically
   more profitable.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Kevin Stech" &lt;kevin.stech@stratfor.com&gt;

   Date: Thu, 5 May 2011 14:58:49 -0500 (CDT)

   To: 'Karen Hooper'&lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;; &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;;
   &lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;

   Subject: RE: US Bank - Dirty Money

    

   The $40 bn estimate is revenues, not profits. The common profit estimates
   you see are in the $10 bn range.

    

   From: Karen Hooper [mailto:hooper@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, May 05, 2011 12:30
   To: sean.noonan@stratfor.com; secure@stratfor.com
   Subject: Re: US Bank - Dirty Money

    

   WF bought wachovia, and yeah, the case was settled last year with no
   criminal charges pursued. Sounds like Fred's contact is doing a follow up
   investigation. I'm less interested in the laundering so much as the size
   of it and where it ends up. The exit of that much money from Mexico is no
   small thing. We're never going to get a full picture of how the drug trade
   affects the financial system in Mex, but it's worth tracking the pieces.
   Also, the $40 bn estimate of drug profits has always seemed low, and these
   data points reinforce that.

   Sent from my iPhone

   On May 5, 2011, at 13:11, "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

     Btw, if this is new it is wells fargo not wachovia.

     WF already paid fines for some of these shenanigans

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;

     Date: Thu, 5 May 2011 11:55:57 -0500 (CDT)

     To: 'Secure List'&lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;

     Subject: Re: US Bank - Dirty Money

      

     Two different things here: 1) The Wachovia bust detailed in the article
     I sent out said that Wachovia handled $378.4 bn in transfers from casas
     de cambio (CDC) in 2004-2007 that they're calling shady (though they
     haven't verified just HOW shady all of it is). 2) Fred's contact says
     his contact has seen $70 bn laundered as a part of an ongoing
     investigation, but we don't know yet know over what timeframe.

     Could be that the CDC transfers are majority legitimate, but why
     transfer cash TO the United States? Usually the flow of legitimate
     remittances goes the other way, and that's the amount the DEA case
     sanctioned Wachovia for failing to properly monitor under money
     laundering laws.

     I'll try to dig up more details from the Wachovia investigation.

      

     On 5/5/11 12:43 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     Wait, so it was way more than $70B?

      

     Maybe not all of that was cartel cash... 

      

     From: Karen Hooper [mailto:hooper@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Thursday, May 05, 2011 12:24 PM
     To: 'Secure List'
     Subject: Re: US Bank - Dirty Money

      

     Right. What i'm saying is that Wachovia ALONE handled ~$125 billion per
     year in shady cash from Mexico from 2004-2007. And that doesn't even
     count the money that stayed in cash, went to the Bahamas or stayed in
     Mexico.

     That makes the $40 bn per year stat seem pretty miniscule, no?
      

      

     On 5/5/11 12:00 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     That is $40B a year. Not all of it was laundered by one institution.
     Some is still physically hauled as bulk cash.

      

     From: Karen Hooper [mailto:hooper@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Thursday, May 05, 2011 11:45 AM
     To: Secure List
     Subject: Re: US Bank - Dirty Money

      

     Any word on the rate of flow? $70 bn is much bigger than the $40 billion
     estimates that we've seen over the years. 

      

     The volume of cash handled in the Wachovia case also suggests something
     on the order of $125 bn per year being laundered by a single method.
     That's a LOT of money, and a lot more than we've discussed.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: burton@stratfor.com
     To: "Karen Hooper" &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;, "Secure List"
     &lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Thursday, May 5, 2011 11:25:50 AM
     Subject: Re: US Bank - Dirty Money

     The money laundered was new, framed as exposing next week or words to
     that effect.

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;

     Date: Thu, 5 May 2011 09:39:12 -0500 (CDT)

     To: Secure List&lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;

     Subject: Re: US Bank - Dirty Money

      

     Over what timeframe did your contact handle that $70 billion?

     On 5/5/11 10:31 AM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     The GOM has hired the ex-CIA group to find additional monies laundered
     by Wachovia. Same group are being used against British Tobacco.

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;

     Date: Thu, 5 May 2011 09:27:48 -0500 (CDT)

     To: Secure List&lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;

     Subject: Re: US Bank - Dirty Money

      

     Here's a good one:

     How a big US bank laundered billions from Mexico's murderous drug gangs
     Ed Vulliamy
     The Observer,     Sunday 3 April 2011
     http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/03/us-bank-mexico-drug-gangs

     A soldier guards marijuana that is being incinerated in Tijuana, Mexico.
     Photograph: Guillermo Arias/AP
     On 10 April 2006, a DC-9 jet landed in the port city of Ciudad del
     Carmen, on the Gulf of Mexico, as the sun was setting. Mexican soldiers,
     waiting to intercept it, found 128 cases packed with 5.7 tons of
     cocaine, valued at $100m. But something else - more important and
     far-reaching - was discovered in the paper trail behind the purchase of
     the plane by the Sinaloa narco-trafficking cartel.

     During a 22-month investigation by agents from the US Drug Enforcement
     Administration, the Internal Revenue Service and others, it emerged that
     the cocaine smugglers had bought the plane with money they had laundered
     through one of the biggest banks in the United States: Wachovia, now
     part of the giant Wells Fargo.

     The authorities uncovered billions of dollars in wire transfers,
     traveller's cheques and cash shipments through Mexican exchanges into
     Wachovia accounts. Wachovia was put under immediate investigation for
     failing to maintain an effective anti-money laundering programme. Of
     special significance was that the period concerned began in 2004, which
     coincided with the first escalation of violence along the US-Mexico
     border that ignited the current drugs war.

     Criminal proceedings were brought against Wachovia, though not against
     any individual, but the case never came to court. In March 2010,
     Wachovia settled the biggest action brought under the US bank secrecy
     act, through the US district court in Miami. Now that the year's
     "deferred prosecution" has expired, the bank is in effect in the clear.
     It paid federal authorities $110m in forfeiture, for allowing
     transactions later proved to be connected to drug smuggling, and
     incurred a $50m fine for failing to monitor cash used to ship 22 tons of
     cocaine.

     More shocking, and more important, the bank was sanctioned for failing
     to apply the proper anti-laundering strictures to the transfer of
     $378.4bn - a sum equivalent to one-third of Mexico's gross national
     product - into dollar accounts from so-called casas de cambio (CDCs) in
     Mexico, currency exchange houses with which the bank did business.

     "Wachovia's blatant disregard for our banking laws gave international
     cocaine cartels a virtual carte blanche to finance their operations,"
     said Jeffrey Sloman, the federal prosecutor. Yet the total fine was less
     than 2% of the bank's $12.3bn profit for 2009. On 24 March 2010, Wells
     Fargo stock traded at $30.86 - up 1% on the week of the court
     settlement.

     The conclusion to the case was only the tip of an iceberg, demonstrating
     the role of the "legal" banking sector in swilling hundreds of billions
     of dollars - the blood money from the murderous drug trade in Mexico and
     other places in the world - around their global operations, now bailed
     out by the taxpayer.

     At the height of the 2008 banking crisis, Antonio Maria Costa, then head
     of the United Nations office on drugs and crime, said he had evidence to
     suggest the proceeds from drugs and crime were "the only liquid
     investment capital" available to banks on the brink of collapse.
     "Inter-bank loans were funded by money that originated from the drugs
     trade," he said. "There were signs that some banks were rescued that
     way."

     Wachovia was acquired by Wells Fargo during the 2008 crash, just as
     Wells Fargo became a beneficiary of $25bn in taxpayers' money.
     Wachovia's prosecutors were clear, however, that there was no suggestion
     Wells Fargo had behaved improperly; it had co-operated fully with the
     investigation. Mexico is the US's third largest international trading
     partner and Wachovia was understandably interested in this volume of
     legitimate trade.

     Jose Luis Marmolejo, who prosecuted those running one of the casas de
     cambio at the Mexican end, said: "Wachovia handled all the transfers.
     They never reported any as suspicious."

     "As early as 2004, Wachovia understood the risk," the bank admitted in
     the statement of settlement with the federal government, but, "despite
     these warnings, Wachovia remained in the business". There is, of course,
     the legitimate use of CDCs as a way into the Hispanic market. In 2005
     the World Bank said that Mexico was receiving $8.1bn in remittances.

     During research into the Wachovia Mexican case, the Observer obtained
     documents previously provided to financial regulators. It emerged that
     the alarm that was ignored came from, among other places, London, as a
     result of the diligence of one of the most important whistleblowers of
     our time. A man who, in a series of interviews with the Observer, adds
     detail to the documents, laying bare the story of how Wachovia was at
     the centre of one of the world's biggest money-laundering operations.

     Martin Woods, a Liverpudlian in his mid-40s, joined the London office of
     Wachovia Bank in February 2005 as a senior anti-money laundering
     officer. He had previously served with the Metropolitan police drug
     squad. As a detective he joined the money-laundering investigation team
     of the National Crime Squad, where he worked on the British end of the
     Bank of New York money-laundering scandal in the late 1990s.

     Woods talks like a police officer - in the best sense of the word:
     punctilious, exact, with a roguish humour, but moral at the core. He was
     an ideal appointment for any bank eager to operate a diligent and
     effective risk management policy against the lucrative scourge of high
     finance: laundering, knowing or otherwise, the vast proceeds of
     criminality, tax-evasion, and dealing in arms and drugs.

     Woods had a police officer's eye and a police officer's instincts - not
     those of a banker. And this influenced not only his methods, but his
     mentality. "I think that a lot of things matter more than money - and
     that marks you out in a culture which appears to prevail in many of the
     banks in the world," he says.

     Woods was set apart by his modus operandi. His speciality, he explains,
     was his application of a "know your client", or KYC, policing strategy
     to identifying dirty money. "KYC is a fundamental approach to anti-money
     laundering, going after tax evasion or counter-terrorist financing. Who
     are your clients? Is the documentation right? Good, responsible banking
     involved always knowing your customer and it still does."

     When he looked at Wachovia, the first thing Woods noticed was a
     deficiency in KYC information. And among his first reports to his
     superiors at the bank's headquarters in Charlotte, North Carolina, were
     observations on a shortfall in KYC at Wachovia's operation in London,
     which he set about correcting, while at the same time implementing what
     was known as an enhanced transaction monitoring programme, gathering
     more information on clients whose money came through the bank's offices
     in the City, in sterling or euros. By August 2006, Woods had identified
     a number of suspicious transactions relating to casas de cambio
     customers in Mexico.

     Primarily, these involved deposits of traveller's cheques in euros. They
     had sequential numbers and deposited larger amounts of money than any
     innocent travelling person would need, with inadequate or no KYC
     information on them and what seemed to a trained eye to be dubious
     signatures. "It was basic work," he says. "They didn't answer the
     obvious questions: 'Is the transaction real, or does it look synthetic?
     Does the traveller's cheque meet the protocols? Is it all there, and if
     not, why not?'"

     Woods discussed the matter with Wachovia's global head of anti-money
     laundering for correspondent banking, who believed the cheques could
     signify tax evasion. He then undertook what banks call a "look back" at
     previous transactions and saw fit to submit a series of SARs, or
     suspicious activity reports, to the authorities in the UK and his
     superiors in Charlotte, urging the blocking of named parties and large
     series of sequentially numbered traveller's cheques from Mexico. He
     issued a number of SARs in 2006, of which 50 related to the casas de
     cambio in Mexico. To his amazement, the response from Wachovia's Miami
     office, the centre for Latin American business, was anything but
     supportive - he felt it was quite the reverse.

     As it turned out, however, Woods was on the right track. Wachovia's
     business in Mexico was coming under closer and closer scrutiny by US
     federal law enforcement. Wachovia was issued with a number of subpoenas
     for information on its Mexican operation. Woods has subsequently been
     informed that Wachovia had six or seven thousand subpoenas. He says this
     was "An absurd number. So at what point does someone at the highest
     level not get the feeling that something is very, very wrong?"

     In April and May 2007, Wachovia - as a result of increasing interest and
     pressure from the US attorney's office - began to close its relationship
     with some of the casas de cambio. But rather than launch an internal
     investigation into Woods's alerts over Mexico, Woods claims Wachovia
     hung its own money-laundering expert out to dry. The records show that
     during 2007 Woods "continued to submit more SARs related to the casas de
     cambio".

     In July 2007, all of Wachovia's remaining 10 Mexican casa de cambio
     clients operating through London suddenly stopped doing so. Later in
     2007, after the investigation of Wachovia was reported in the US
     financial media, the bank decided to end its remaining relationships
     with the Mexican casas de cambio globally. By this time, Woods says, he
     found his personal situation within the bank untenable; while the bank
     acted on one level to protect itself from the federal investigation into
     its shortcomings, on another, it rounded on the man who had been among
     the first to spot them.

     On 16 June Woods was told by Wachovia's head of compliance that his
     latest SAR need not have been filed, that he had no legal requirement to
     investigate an overseas case and no right of access to documents held
     overseas from Britain, even if they were held by Wachovia.

     Woods's life went into freefall. He went to hospital with a prolapsed
     disc, reported sick and was told by the bank that he not done so in the
     appropriate manner, as directed by the employees' handbook. He was off
     work for three weeks, returning in August 2007 to find a letter from the
     bank's compliance managing director, which was unrelenting in its tone
     and words of warning.

     The letter addressed itself to what the manager called "specific
     examples of your failure to perform at an acceptable standard". Woods,
     on the edge of a breakdown, was put on sick leave by his GP; he was
     later given psychiatric treatment, enrolled on a stress management
     course and put on medication.

     Late in 2007, Woods attended a function at Scotland Yard where
     colleagues from the US were being entertained. There, he sought out a
     representative of the Drug Enforcement Administration and told him about
     the casas de cambio, the SARs and his employer's reaction. The Federal
     Reserve and officials of the office of comptroller of currency in
     Washington DC then "spent a lot of time examining the SARs" that had
     been sent by Woods to Charlotte from London.

     "They got back in touch with me a while afterwards and we began to put
     the pieces of the jigsaw together," says Woods. What they found was - as
     Costa says - the tip of the iceberg of what was happening to drug money
     in the banking industry, but at least it was visible and it had a name:
     Wachovia.

     In June 2005, the DEA, the criminal division of the Internal Revenue
     Service and the US attorney's office in southern Florida began
     investigating wire transfers from Mexico to the US. They were traced
     back to correspondent bank accounts held by casas de cambio at Wachovia.
     The CDC accounts were supervised and managed by a business unit of
     Wachovia in the bank's Miami offices.

     "Through CDCs," said the court document, "persons in Mexico can use hard
     currency and ... wire transfer the value of that currency to US bank
     accounts to purchase items in the United States or other countries. The
     nature of the CDC business allows money launderers the opportunity to
     move drug dollars that are in Mexico into CDCs and ultimately into the
     US banking system.

     "On numerous occasions," say the court papers, "monies were deposited
     into a CDC by a drug-trafficking organisation. Using false identities,
     the CDC then wired that money through its Wachovia correspondent bank
     accounts for the purchase of airplanes for drug-trafficking
     organisations." The court settlement of 2010 would detail that "nearly
     $13m went through correspondent bank accounts at Wachovia for the
     purchase of aircraft to be used in the illegal narcotics trade. From
     these aircraft, more than 20,000kg of cocaine were seized."

     All this occurred despite the fact that Wachovia's office was in Miami,
     designated by the US government as a "high-intensity money laundering
     and related financial crime area", and a "high-intensity drug
     trafficking area". Since the drug cartel war began in 2005, Mexico had
     been designated a high-risk source of money laundering.

     "As early as 2004," the court settlement would read, "Wachovia
     understood the risk that was associated with doing business with the
     Mexican CDCs. Wachovia was aware of the general industry warnings. As
     early as July 2005, Wachovia was aware that other large US banks were
     exiting the CDC business based on [anti-money laundering] concerns ...
     despite these warnings, Wachovia remained in business."

     On 16 March 2010, Douglas Edwards, senior vice-president of Wachovia
     Bank, put his signature to page 10 of a 25-page settlement, in which the
     bank admitted its role as outlined by the prosecutors. On page 11, he
     signed again, as senior vice-president of Wells Fargo. The documents
     show Wachovia providing three services to 22 CDCs in Mexico: wire
     transfers, a "bulk cash service" and a "pouch deposit service", to
     accept "deposit items drawn on US banks, eg cheques and traveller's
     cheques", as spotted by Woods.

     "For the time period of 1 May 2004 through 31 May 2007, Wachovia
     processed at least $$373.6bn in CDCs, $4.7bn in bulk cash" - a total of
     more than $378.3bn, a sum that dwarfs the budgets debated by US state
     and UK local authorities to provide services to citizens.

     The document gives a fascinating insight into how the laundering of drug
     money works. It details how investigators "found readily identifiable
     evidence of red flags of large-scale money laundering". There were
     "structured wire transfers" whereby "it was commonplace in the CDC
     accounts for round-number wire transfers to be made on the same day or
     in close succession, by the same wire senders, for the ... same
     account".

     Over two days, 10 wire transfers by four individuals "went though
     Wachovia for deposit into an aircraft broker's account. All of the
     transfers were in round numbers. None of the individuals of business
     that wired money had any connection to the aircraft or the entity that
     allegedly owned the aircraft. The investigation has further revealed
     that the identities of the individuals who sent the money were false and
     that the business was a shell entity. That plane was subsequently seized
     with approximately 2,000kg of cocaine on board."

     Many of the sequentially numbered traveller's cheques, of the kind dealt
     with by Woods, contained "unusual markings" or "lacked any legible
     signature". Also, "many of the CDCs that used Wachovia's bulk cash
     service sent significantly more cash to Wachovia than what Wachovia had
     expected. More specifically, many of the CDCs exceeded their monthly
     activity by at least 50%."

     Recognising these "red flags", the US attorney's office in Miami, the
     IRS and the DEA began investigating Wachovia, later joined by FinCEN,
     one of the US Treasury's agencies to fight money laundering, while the
     office of the comptroller of the currency carried out a parallel
     investigation. The violations they found were, says the document,
     "serious and systemic and allowed certain Wachovia customers to launder
     millions of dollars of proceeds from the sale of illegal narcotics
     through Wachovia accounts over an extended time period. The
     investigation has identified that at least $110m in drug proceeds were
     funnelled through the CDC accounts held at Wachovia."

     The settlement concludes by discussing Wachovia's "considerable
     co-operation and remedial actions" since the prosecution was initiated,
     after the bank was bought by Wells Fargo. "In consideration of
     Wachovia's remedial actions," concludes the prosecutor, "the United
     States shall recommend to the court ... that prosecution of Wachovia on
     the information filed ... be deferred for a period of 12 months."

     But while the federal prosecution proceeded, Woods had remained out in
     the cold. On Christmas Eve 2008, his lawyers filed tribunal proceedings
     against Wachovia for bullying and detrimental treatment of a
     whistleblower. The case was settled in May 2009, by which time Woods
     felt as though he was "the most toxic person in the bank". Wachovia
     agreed to pay an undisclosed amount, in return for which Woods left the
     bank and said he would not make public the terms of the settlement.

     After years of tribulation, Woods was finally formally vindicated,
     though not by Wachovia: a letter arrived from John Dugan, the
     comptroller of the currency in Washington DC, dated 19 March 2010 -
     three days after the settlement in Miami. Dugan said he was "writing to
     personally recognise and express my appreciation for the role you played
     in the actions brought against Wachovia Bank for violations of the bank
     secrecy act ... Not only did the information that you provided
     facilitate our investigation, but you demonstrated great personal
     courage and integrity by speaking up. Without the efforts of individuals
     like you, actions such as the one taken against Wachovia would not be
     possible."

     The so-called "deferred prosecution" detailed in the Miami document is a
     form of probation whereby if the bank abides by the law for a year,
     charges are dropped. So this March the bank was in the clear. The week
     that the deferred prosecution expired, a spokeswoman for Wells Fargo
     said the parent bank had no comment to make on the documentation
     pertaining to Woods's case, or his allegations. She added that there was
     no comment on Sloman's remarks to the court; a provision in the
     settlement stipulated Wachovia was not allowed to issue public
     statements that contradicted it.

     But the settlement leaves a sour taste in many mouths - and certainly in
     Woods's. The deferred prosecution is part of this "cop-out all round",
     he says. "The regulatory authorities do not have to spend any more time
     on it, and they don't have to push it as far as a criminal trial. They
     just issue criminal proceedings, and settle. The law enforcement people
     do what they are supposed to do, but what's the point? All those people
     dealing with all that money from drug-trafficking and murder, and no one
     goes to jail?"

     One of the foremost figures in the training of anti-money laundering
     officers is Robert Mazur, lead infiltrator for US law enforcement of the
     Colombian Medellin cartel during the epic prosecution and collapse of
     the BCCI banking business in 1991 (his story was made famous by his
     memoir, The Infiltrator, which became a movie).

     Mazur, whose firm Chase and Associates works closely with law
     enforcement agencies and trains officers for bank anti-money laundering,
     cast a keen eye over the case against Wachovia, and he says now that
     "the only thing that will make the banks properly vigilant to what is
     happening is when they hear the rattle of handcuffs in the boardroom".

     Mazur said that "a lot of the law enforcement people were disappointed
     to see a settlement" between the administration and Wachovia. "But I
     know there were external circumstances that worked to Wachovia's
     benefit, not least that the US banking system was on the edge of
     collapse."

     What concerns Mazur is that what law enforcement agencies and
     politicians hope to achieve against the cartels is limited, and falls
     short of the obvious attack the US could make in its war on drugs: go
     after the money. "We're thinking way too small," Mazur says. "I train
     law enforcement officers, thousands of them every year, and they say to
     me that if they tried to do half of what I did, they'd be arrested. But
     I tell them: 'You got to think big. The headlines you will be reading in
     seven years' time will be the result of the work you begin now.' With
     BCCI, we had to spend two years setting it up, two years doing
     undercover work, and another two years getting it to trial. If they want
     to do something big, like go after the money, that's how long it takes."

     But Mazur warns: "If you look at the career ladders of law enforcement,
     there's no incentive to go after the big money. People move every two to
     three years. The DEA is focused on drug trafficking rather than money
     laundering. You get a quicker result that way - they want to get the
     traffickers and seize their assets. But this is like treating a sick
     plant by cutting off a few branches - it just grows new ones. Going
     after the big money is cutting down the plant - it's a harder door to
     knock on, it's a longer haul, and it won't get you the short-term
     riches."

      

     The office of the comptroller of the currency is still examining whether
     individuals in Wachovia are criminally liable. Sources at FinCEN say
     that a so-called "look-back" is in process, as directed by the
     settlement and agreed to by Wachovia, into the $378.4bn that was not
     directly associated with the aircraft purchases and cocaine hauls, but
     neither was it subject to the proper anti-laundering checks. A FinCEN
     source says that $20bn already examined appears to have "suspicious
     origins". But this is just the beginning.

     Antonio Maria Costa, who was executive director of the UN's office on
     drugs and crime from May 2002 to August 2010, charts the history of the
     contamination of the global banking industry by drug and criminal money
     since his first initiatives to try to curb it from the European
     commission during the 1990s. "The connection between organised crime and
     financial institutions started in the late 1970s, early 1980s," he says,
     "when the mafia became globalised."

     Until then, criminal money had circulated largely in cash, with the
     authorities making the occasional, spectacular "sting" or haul. During
     Costa's time as director for economics and finance at the EC in
     Brussels, from 1987, inroads were made against penetration of banks by
     criminal laundering, and "criminal money started moving back to cash,
     out of the financial institutions and banks. Then two things happened:
     the financial crisis in Russia, after the emergence of the Russian
     mafia, and the crises of 2003 and 2007-08.

     "With these crises," says Costa, "the banking sector was short of
     liquidity, the banks exposed themselves to the criminal syndicates, who
     had cash in hand."

     Costa questions the readiness of governments and their regulatory
     structures to challenge this large-scale corruption of the global
     economy: "Government regulators showed what they were capable of when
     the issue suddenly changed to laundering money for terrorism - on that,
     they suddenly became serious and changed their attitude."

     Hardly surprising, then, that Wachovia does not appear to be the end of
     the line. In August 2010, it emerged in quarterly disclosures by HSBC
     that the US justice department was seeking to fine it for anti-money
     laundering compliance problems reported to include dealings with Mexico.

      

     "Wachovia had my resume, they knew who I was," says Woods. "But they did
     not want to know - their attitude was, 'Why are you doing this?' They
     should have been on my side, because they were compliance people, not
     commercial people. But really they were commercial people all along.
     We're talking about hundreds of millions of dollars. This is the biggest
     money-laundering scandal of our time.

     "These are the proceeds of murder and misery in Mexico, and of drugs
     sold around the world," he says. "All the law enforcement people wanted
     to see this come to trial. But no one goes to jail. "What does the
     settlement do to fight the cartels? Nothing - it doesn't make the job of
     law enforcement easier and it encourages the cartels and anyone who
     wants to make money by laundering their blood dollars. Where's the risk?
     There is none.

     "Is it in the interest of the American people to encourage both the drug
     cartels and the banks in this way? Is it in the interest of the Mexican
     people? It's simple: if you don't see the correlation between the money
     laundering by banks and the 30,000 people killed in Mexico, you're
     missing the point."

     Woods feels unable to rest on his laurels. He tours the world for a
     consultancy he now runs, Hermes Forensic Solutions, counselling and
     speaking to banks on the dangers of laundering criminal money, and how
     to spot and stop it. "New York and London," says Woods, "have become the
     world's two biggest laundries of criminal and drug money, and offshore
     tax havens. Not the Cayman Islands, not the Isle of Man or Jersey. The
     big laundering is right through the City of London and Wall Street.

     "After the Wachovia case, no one in the regulatory community has sat
     down with me and asked, 'What happened?' or 'What can we do to avoid
     this happening to other banks?' They are not interested. They are the
     same people who attack the whistleblowers and this is a position the
     [British] Financial Services Authority at least has adopted on legal
     advice: it has been advised that the confidentiality of banking and
     bankers takes primacy over the public information disclosure act. That
     is how the priorities work: secrecy first, public interest second.

     "Meanwhile, the drug industry has two products: money and suffering. On
     one hand, you have massive profits and enrichment. On the other, you
     have massive suffering, misery and death. You cannot separate one from
     the other.

     "What happened at Wachovia was symptomatic of the failure of the entire
     regulatory system to apply the kind of proper governance and adequate
     risk management which would have prevented not just the laundering of
     blood money, but the global crisis."

     On 5/4/11 9:29 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     this is in OS. 

     Many big stories on it. 

     On 5/4/11 7:53 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 One of my trusted former CIA cronies reports Wachovia laundered $70

 billion (yes billion) for the MX drug cartels per an on-going

 investigation.  His company has been hired by the MX govt to look for

 drug money.

  

  

      

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-05-05 22:12:26</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1115826_re-us-bank-dirty-money-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kevin.stech@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1116097</id>
    <title>[Africa] INSIGHT -- COTE D'IVOIRE -- thoughts from Abidjan on
 pro-Ouattara bias
</title>
    <description>   Code: CI005
   Attribution: Stratfor source (is an American missionary in Abidjan)
   Publication: for background
   Source reliability: is new
   Item credibility: is new
   Handler: Mark
   Suggested distribution: Africa, Analysts

   I am a missionary serving in Abidjan. I do not support political
   candidates here or in the USA. I am completely neutral and I tell everyone
   that I am. However, I have been burned in the past by the news media so I
   am a bit nervous about sharing too much info as it could endanger my
   family.

   What we really need over here, and all of francophone Africa, are some
   neutral observer/reporters to come and wade through all the lies so the
   world can see the truth. I remember when reporters used to pride
   themselves in doing true investigative reporting. What happened to those
   guys?

   For example, I read the UN reports where they say there are 20,000 to
   30,000 people fleeing into Liberia and Guinea and they show pictures of
   the red cross helping them. They always make sure they include it with a
   statement of human rights abuses of the Gbagbo regime which they say are
   not verified yet. But what they never say is that the people are fleeing
   because they are being killed and raped and whole villages are being
   burned by the rebel supporters of [opposition leader Alassane] Ouattara.
   This is common knowledge here on the streets. We know this is true because
   we have friends who have family who have lost their homes and family
   members. Of course, the UN, USA and France support Ouattara so they bury
   the truth or disguise it to look like Gbagbo is responsible.

   This is easily verified by anyone who wants to go to the refugee camps and
   interview the people there.

   I really appreciate your writing and respect the work of your
   organization. May you can give me some insight on something. Why does the
   Obama administration want to make enemies of the entire West African
   population when all the Africans here love America and would do anything
   to become a business partner with America. If Obama used some wisdom , he
   could end this crisis right now by calling for an investigation and
   discovery of the truth about the abuses of the election and who actually
   won. If he did this all the people would proclaim him a friend of
   democracy and a hero of the people. He could get anything he wanted over
   here if he helped the people to get real freedom from colonial domination.
   What do you think?

   Everyone here is working and going to school, living their lives and
   ignoring the calls of Ouattara for civil disobedience. If you talk to
   regular folks, family people, not those who are being paid to start
   trouble, on both political sides of the issue, they all say they do not
   want war.

   Look at what is happening in Egypt or Tunisia right now. No one had to
   tell them to rebel. They rebelled because they didn't like the people in
   power. Now here in Cote d' Ivoire we have a nation who is at peace with
   Gbagbo. They are not rebelling and the USA, France and the UN want to
   remove him. My friend, I can tell you that the people here will never
   allow that to happen peacefully. They will have to kill many people to
   force the 60 to 70% to submit to someone they do not want as President.
   Again, don't take my word for it. Come here yourself and see it all. It
   will blow you away to see how the truth has been distorted and trampled
   on.

   Please, come and see!
</description>
    <date>2011-01-29 22:47:16</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-06 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1116097_-africa-insight-cote-d-ivoire-thoughts-from-abidjan-on-pro.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mark.schroeder@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>africa@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:africa@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1116312</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - VENEZUELA: Canvas fostering revolutions
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE CODE: SR501

   PUBLICATION: NO

   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: CANVAS leader

   ATTRIBUTION: Not yet, not unless they let us publish

   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A

   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 5

   SPECIAL HANDLING:

   DISTRIBUTION: Secure

   SOURCE HANDLER: Marko

   Translated from source:

   To explain the plan of action we sent, it is a how-to guide for
   revolution, obviously. It is all explained in our Revolution Guide (the
   encyclopedia of mayhem) under the chapter "HOw to Plan Campaigns".

   When somebody asks us for help, as in Vene case, we usually ask them the
   question "and how would you do it". That means that the first thing is to
   create a situational analysis (the word doc I sent you) and after that
   comes "Mission Statement" (still left to be done) and then "Operational
   Concept", which is the plan for campaign. For this case we have three
   campaigns: unification of opposition, campaign for September elections and
   parallel with that a "get out and vote" campaign.

   In NORMAL circumstances, activists come to us and work in a worksho[ on
   exactly this sort of a format. We only guide them. This is why plans end
   up being so efficient later on, because the activist themselves created
   them and are absolutely theirs, ie authentic. We only give them the tools
   to use them. In Venezuela's case, because of the complete disaster that
   the place is, because of suspicion between oppositoon groups and
   disorganization, we have to do the initial analysis. Whether they go on to
   next steps really depends on them, in other words depends on whether they
   will become aware that because of a lack of UNITY they can lose the race
   before it has started.

   By the way Venezuela's security culture is nonexistent. They are retarded
   and talk out of their ass. It is absolutely a joke.
</description>
    <date>2010-01-13 23:49:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-06-18 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1116312_insight-venezuela-canvas-fostering-revolutions-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1116408</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA: Canvas ramping up
</title>
    <description>   heh, love the 'how to' guide. let's sell it to Chavez
   On Jan 12, 2010, at 3:49 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

     SOURCE CODE: SR501 
     PUBLICATION: NO
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: CANVAS leader
     ATTRIBUTION: Not yet, not unless they let us publish 
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: 5
     SPECIAL HANDLING: 
     DISTRIBUTION: Secure
     SOURCE HANDLER: Marko 
     See attached document. It is CANVAS's strategy for Venezuela. They are
     ramping up their work there. Very active. The document comes to me with
     the following email: 
     "This year we are definitely ramping up activity in Venezuela. They have
     elections i September and we are in close connection with activists from
     there and people trying to help them (please keep this to yourself for
     now, no publication). The first phase of our preparation is under way.
     According to CANVAS's "Plan Format" model (which activists apply in
     workshops) there are four stages to successful strategy: 
     1. Situational Analysis (which we are doing now)
     2. Concept of oepration (what is to be done)
     3. Execution phase (How the hell we are going to win this war?)
     4. Technology operations (administration, logistics, coordination and
     communication). 
     This is the model, by the way, that we showed George in Colorado and
     that is the basis of our "powergraph". 
     This is the foundation for our draft analysis of what we are planning to
     do in Venezuela. That is attached. 
     &lt;VENEZUELA CANVAS NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION.docx&gt;
</description>
    <date>2010-01-12 22:51:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-06-18 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1116408_re-insight-venezuela-canvas-ramping-up-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1116441</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - VENEZUELA: Canvas ramping up
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2010-01-12 22:49:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-06-18 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1116441_insight-venezuela-canvas-ramping-up-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/100/100251_VENEZUELA CANVAS NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION.docx</path><size>126215</size><md5></md5><sha1>adc13c476215cfb6a0e1ef9721618a83a7255128</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1116451</id>
    <title>[Fwd: Re: Thoughts on Der Spiegel?]
</title>
    <description>8</description>
    <date>2010-01-25 19:56:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-11 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1116451_-fwd-re-thoughts-on-der-spiegel-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1116544</id>
    <title>Re: Insight--for internal use only--On pain of agony
</title>
    <description>   No wonder Medvedev has 2 trips planned to Turkey this spring..... Russia
   will try to take advantage.

   Reva Bhalla wrote:

     yes... turkey isn't only using Iran as the cause for the break. look at
     turkey's public outrage over the Israeli offensive in Gaza as an
     example. Turkey is already pretty tight with Russia, but this doesn't
     mean Turkey has to necessarily get closer to Russia. Turkey will play
     nice with the Russians but also wants to show it can play on its own
     On Feb 20, 2010, at 11:14 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

       I meant to say, if not for Iran, would he look for other
       places/weaknesses in the US/Israel relationship to cause a break? 
       And, if he did break with these two, would it mean necessarily that he
       would move closer to Russia?

       Reva Bhalla wrote:

         US and Israel are the ones that matter. it's about redefining
         Turkey's role as an independent power
         On Feb 20, 2010, at 11:04 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

           Erdogan is looking to break with the US and Israel?  Are there
           other possible places he could do this, if he is actively trying?

           George Friedman wrote:

             Turkey would break with israel and the united states. It would
             be an opportunity erdogan is looking for. 

             Iran would become more visible but not more powerful. A year
             after the attack its underlying weakness would still be there
             and its dependence on turkey greater. 

             In my view the ourtcome of this is turkish power. But remeber,
             my insight is not that israel will attack. Its that kissinger
             thinks they will attack. Huge difference. 

             $

             Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: "Kamran Bokhari" &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
             Date: Sat, 20 Feb 2010 15:55:16 +0000
             To: Secure List&lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;
             Subject: Re: Insight--for internal use only--On pain of agony
             All my sources - regardless of factional affiliation - are
             convinced that Iran is preparing for war and one that will make
             the regime more stronger. Did you see Bob Baer make the same
             argument in TIME? Any attack on Iran will make it very difficult
             for Turkey. It will be forced to take a stand against the war
             and there could be trouble with the United States. Such a
             conflict will be a test of Turkey's resurgence and moves towards
             a more independent foreign policy. 

             ---

             Sent from my BlackBerry device on the Rogers Wireless Network 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: "George Friedman" &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;
             Date: Sat, 20 Feb 2010 15:47:49 +0000
             To: Kamran Bokhari&lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;; George
             Friedman&lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;; Secure
             List&lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;
             Subject: Re: Insight--for internal use only--On pain of agony
             I believe th us will premempt. But there is no clear time line.

             Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: "Kamran Bokhari" &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
             Date: Sat, 20 Feb 2010 15:43:38 +0000
             To: George Friedman&lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;; Secure
             List&lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;
             Subject: Re: Insight--for internal use only--On pain of agony
             Understood. What is your own assessment of the view that the
             Israelis will attack?

             ---

             Sent from my BlackBerry device on the Rogers Wireless Network 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: George Friedman &lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
             Date: Sat, 20 Feb 2010 09:41:03 -0600
             To: Secure List&lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;
             Subject: Insight--for internal use only--On pain of agony
             Internal use only

             Some nuggets from meeting:

             Kissinger believes that the Israelis are in a panic and will
             attack Iran.  Erdogan has made it clear to him that he plans to
             break with Israel at some point and reorient toward the Islamic
             world. He intends to be their leader.  Paul Volcker regards the
             Greek crisis as potentially a mortal blow for the EU. He would
             like to see an IMF tranche.  He also said that Nicholas Brady is
             behind both this and the Volcker principles Obama adopted.  When
             I asked Brady how he expects to get the the U.S. to go along
             with an IMF bailout, he shrugged and said they won't, but that's
             the only choice.  Volcker is now doubtful the Euro can survive. 
             Brady is convinced it will.  Kissinger thinks Volcker and Brady
             are missing the real crisis which is in Iran and potentially
             Russia. Volcker also says that the Bank of England and the
             French will go along with the Volcker rules on an international
             basis--that is returning to a variety of Glass-Steagal.  The
             Japanese will do whatever is said, and in Germany only Deutsche
             Bank really makes decisions. Sarkozy told him he would come in. 
             So there may be an international convention on restructuring
             banks under way--Volcker is pretty careful in what he says and
             doesn't promote himself more than the average bear, so this may
             be the case.  Nick Brady thinks so too.

             Total confusion on situation in China, but more on Obama.  They
             don't understand who is running China policy. The decision to
             meet with the Dalia Lama strikes them as particularly bizarre. 
             But China is the least of the discussion.  It is about Greece
             and Iran.  China is kind of an afterthought.

             I asked Tim Reed who ran Resolution Trust Corporation during the
             S&amp;L crisis under Nick Brady whether a new RTC would have been
             better as a supplement to TARP and he agreed but said that
             Paulsen was so panicked he wasn't thinking and Bernaecke and he
             were just responding.  

             One sense I'm getting here is that the American elite, along
             with Europe's, China's and just about everyone but Russia's his
             suffering from three problems:  First, none are really aware of
             the political pressures on other elites.  Second, they
             completely misunderstand the alienation of the publics, three,
             except for Volcker, they think this can be handled by the elites
             among themselves.  We have a crisis of the elites, in my view.  

             I get to hold forth in an hour or so, and I'm going to argue
             that Iran is going out of control because of the elite crisis. 
             No decision making is going on and the decisions that are being
             made won't be supported in the public. The only country that is
             acting decisively and can do so is Russia.

             This is for our own internal use.  This must not be published or
             discussed outside Stratfor.
             -- 
             George Friedman
             Founder and CEO
             Stratfor
             700 Lavaca Street
             Suite 900
             Austin, Texas 78701
             Phone  512-744-4319
             Fax  512-744-4334

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director, Stratfor
 US Mobile: (512) 422-9335
 China Mobile: (86) 15801890731
 Email: richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com



    

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director, Stratfor
 US Mobile: (512) 422-9335
 China Mobile: (86) 15801890731
 Email: richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com



    

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-02-20 20:37:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1116544_re-insight-for-internal-use-only-on-pain-of-agony-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1117154</id>
    <title>DEA on Covert Action in MX 
</title>
    <description>Response: 

Yes it would be nice to "Action" (kinetically) these folks.


-----Original Message-----

Fred's question:


Could you go and kill/arrest the narco HVT's today if the dumb asses in the
WH would authorize it? 
</description>
    <date>2011-02-17 18:38:17</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-23 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1117154_dea-on-covert-action-in-mx-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1117571</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - Part II of Turkey trip
</title>
    <description>   (sent out first part of insight last week. this is the second part)

   After meeting with the group of energy experts, Emre and I headed to
   Istanbul*s business district, where I had a meeting scheduled through
   Isbank with the CEO of Sabanci Holding Co. Sabanci is the largest business
   conglomerate in Turkey * it is, essentially, the Turkish economy. 
   Sabanci, along with Koc, are the two big business groups that really
   matter in the country and belong to the traditional, Istanbul elite, ie.
   the Kemalist-nationalists.

    

   The office building is, as expected, overwhelmingly gorgeous. We were
   shown to a fancy meeting room with a view of the entire city. In walks in
   the Sabanci CEO, dressed very refined, spoke perfect English. He was
   obviously the elite of the elites. 

    

   Overall, I felt pretty intimidated in this meeting. The Sabanci guy was
   oozing with confidence and made very clear that his company has been and
   will remain the driver of the Turkish economy.  We discussed how Turkey
   was able to cope so well with the financial crisis. He described how
   extremely flexible Turkish businesses were, and how his business agents
   went out looking for new markets when the European markets started
   crashing. He said they found markets in random places like Ivory Coast and
   Togo.  Sabanci*s cement company recorded profit in 2009 by finding new
   customers in Africa.

    

   He kept emphasizing how more competition is good for business. Otherwise,
   businesses can grow complacent. He acknowledged there is a power struggle
   happening, but how the growth of the Anatolian business class was good. He
   didn*t seem the least bit threatened. His whole attitude was that no one
   could compete with Sabanci. If you look at the numbers, he*s right.
   Sabanci is huge compared to the others. At the same time, AKP makes up for
   their lack of financial leverage in sheer numbers. The support of all
   these Anatolian small and medium businesses adds up. He said how Sabanci
   dominates the overseas markets, but doesn*t really have many guys along
   the Turkish borders in the Mideast where the AKP is lifting visa regimes
   and opening the borders.  That policy is designed to help the Anatolian
   business class loyal to AKP. Overall, we didn*t learn anything
   particularly new from this meeting, but it helped immensely just to get a
   direct impression of what Turkey*s nationalist/secularist/elitist business
   class looks and feels like.  They still act like they can*t be touched by
   the government and that they*re unstoppable.

    

   That night I was supposed to meet with the head of Dogan media group at my
   hotel. At the last minute, he cancelled saying he had something come up at
   work. It felt a little suspicious to me, though. I got the feeling that
   Dogan was still really nervous about talking to us since they*re under
   attack and he knew I had been talking to Gulen people.

    

   A side anecdote * That night, Emre and I went to the grand bazaar. I
   wanted to find one of those old Ottoman maps. I found the guy that sells
   them and bargained hard with him for a good hour. We ended up becoming
   friends afterward and went to smoke sheesha and have tea after we made our
   deal. I asked him about how business has been in the past few years and he
   said it*s been hard, they have to pay really high taxes, but that they
   have benefited from having more Arabs coming to Turkey with the lifing of
   the visa restrictions * a good example of AKP strategy working to help the
   small business owners.

    

   Friday, March 12

    

   Early in the morning, we had a breakfast meeting with TUSKON, the main
   business association loyal to AKP and dominated by Gulenists. These are
   the guys who are raising the Anatolian business class. This meeting was
   arranged by Cehan Usak from the Gulenist organization we visited. We met
   with Hakan Tasci, the US representative of TUSKON, and Dr. Mustafa M.
   Gunay, TUSKON*s Secretary-General. They were in a modest office building
   in a not that great part of town (huge contrast to the Sabanci group), but
   they laid out a huge Turkish breakfast for us and were extremely welcoming
   and forthcoming.

    

   Tasci was very familiar with Stratfor. He*s an example of an Anatolian
   businessman who has been well educated, raised in a Gulenist school and
   then sent abroad for the organization. Dr. Gunay made it seem like he
   didn*t really know much about Stratfor. After I explained a bit about the
   company and what I hoped to learn from them, they both launched into their
   own speeches. Again, I was struck by how they answered my questions
   without me even having to ask them. The breakfast lasted for nearly an
   hour and 40 minutes.. they weren*t in a rush to see us leave, despite how
   busy they were. They were clearly told to spend time with us and give us
   the full treatment.

    

   At first, the discussion started out as very business-focused with Tasci,
   the US representative. They talked about how rapidly Tuskon has grown in
   Turkey just over the past 5 years as part of the AKP*s strategy to raise
   its own Anatolian business class. They say that they understand that
   they*re nowhere near the level of the Istanbul giants like Sabanci, Koc,
   etc.,but that they just want to share a small piece of the pie to make
   Turkey more democratic, shared among equals, etc.

    

   Tuskon doesn*t try to compete as much with the markets that the Istanbul
   giants dominate. Instead, they have found new markets in Africa, Middle
   East, Central Asia, etc. This is why the AKP has been lifting visa
   restrictions in places like Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, etc. They want to open
   the borders and use commerce to spread Turkish influence. Tuskon is the
   main vehicle for this effort.

    

   Tuskon organizes these major conferences and business summits all over the
   world and they do this thing that they call *match-making*, where they*ll
   match the Anatolian businessmen with a customer in each of these
   countries, and thus incorporate them into a lucrative supply chain. They
   organize conferences for various geographic regions, then merged all of
   them and created a *World Trade Bridge* where they gather Turkish and
   international businessmen as well as translators to facilitate their
   communication. They showed us a video on this. The video had the exact
   same dramatic music and narrator as the first Gulenist propaganda film
   that we saw a couple days earlier. Emre and I got a big kick out of that.
   From then on, we had to say everything in the Gulenist propaganda voice.

    

   After we talked about the business model for some time with Tasci, Dr.
   Gunay took over and then launched into the Gulenist propaganda. Again, I
   was surprised by how they were very openly representing themselves as
   Gulenist. Dr. Gunay kept talking about what a brilliant man Fethullah
   Gulen was. At the same time, he dismissed the idea of this being a battle
   between Islamists and secularists. He proclaimed himself to be a
   secularist and then said secularists don*t even know the meaning of
   secularism. He said that Tuskon includes Armenians, and even Atheists. The
   main message was that they are not fundamentialists. Then he goes into
   that same exact speech we heard before about peace, love, harmony,
   humanity, democratic ideals, etc. He kept telling me how they approach
   everything with humanistic ideals. They are out to create world peace,
   distribute soup to hungry Haitians, etc. He kept saying *our friends* do
   this and *our friends* do that, referring to the Gulen movement.  He said
   when Hurrican Katrina hit and they received a check for some business
   summit expenses, they returned the same amount of money and made it a
   donation. When I asked about the financing, he said it*s all done
   independently. Tuskon pays its own way for these summits, doesn*t take
   money from the government, etc. (how much of that is true is up for
   debate, of course).

    

   They also talked a lot about the Gulenist schools. They say that the
   curriculums focus on the sciences, English language, etc., not necessarily
   an Islamist agenda. The goal is raise well-bred kids in these schools.
   Plus, they learn Turkish and develop an affinity to the Turkish state.
   Again when I asked about financing for all these top notch schools, he
   kind of waved it off and said that it*s not expensive to build schools in
   places like Africa.

    

   The basic model is this: Anatolian businessmen have family firms that
   produce salt shakers, t-shirts, whatever. They want to be able to produce
   and sell. Tuskon gives them clients. They then send Gulenists to live in
   these countries where they*re selling and set up schools. That way, they
   learn the local language and overcome the language barrier when Turkish
   officials comes to visit. They raise their kids in the best schools and
   then when they come back, they take the lead of the company or are
   integrated within the government. Thorughout all this, Gulen ensures they
   maintain conservative, *family* values while being exposed to a globalized
   world.

    

   .When we talked about the relationship between the Gulen movement and the
   state, Dr. Gunay was insistent that the government does not give them any
   breaks. He said it*s the government that*s dependent on them. He said they
   use the Gulenist schools like embassies. President Gul will ask Tuskon to
   organize his visit to Africa, they then work with the schools they have
   set up there to gather represenatives and organize facilities for the
   events. He also openly acknowledged that they*re used as intelligence
   posts, though he didn*t say that directly. He said that they have many
   deep connetions in these countries with the government, business,
   opposition, etc. So, when Turkey has a problem in X country, say
   Kazakhstan, then they call on the GUlenist school representative or Tuskon
   rep for information.

    

   I brought up the fact that not all countries are comfortable with the
   ideas of these Gulenist schools. Uzbekistan, for example, has banned them.
   Azerbaijan has been trying to get rid of them. He downplayed the whole
   thing, saying that even where the schools have been banned, the
   governments are still *our friends* and allow us to work with other
   schools.

    

   Tasci, who is based in DC, didn*t seem as hardcore Gulenist as the other
   guy. I caught him making some cringing looks when Dr. Gunay was unleashing
   the propaganda. I think he could tell we already knew quite a bit about
   the movement. Tasci seems a lot more business-minded than
   ideologically-motivated. I*ll be meeting with him again soon in DC.

    

    

   Cengiz Candar

    

   Cengiz Candar is a highly respected political analyst and journalist in
   Turkey. He was a former advisor to Ozal  from 1991-1993. Whenever he
   writes an article, every major newspaper in Turkey prints it and listens
   to what he says. Ask Emre, he*s a huge fan of his as well. Everyone I
   talked to in Turkey about Cengiz said he is the best analyst they have. He
   is still highly connected in the current government and seems to be
   involved in various negotiations, particularly when it comes to anything
   related to the Kurdish issue.  Cengiz is an older man, very blunt, to the
   point, geopolitically-minded. He*s basically the Turkish version of
   George.

   Cengiz attracts a lot of controversy because of his views on the Kurdish
   issue. He is one of the rare Turks who openly speaks about a *Kurdistan*
   region and acknowledges Kurdish history. He is very close to the Iraqi
   Kurdish leadership as well.  I focused the discussion on the AKP*s
   strategy toward the Kurds both inside Turkey and in the broader region,
   particularly Iraq.

   He started out with a very long history of the Kurds and the territory
   they claim. He explained how following the Treaty of Sevres, Turkey could
   not afford to give Kurds an identity that would undermine the post-Ottoman
   identity of the Turkish state created by Ataturk. But, he said, the
   Kurdistan region is the natural area of competition between Turkey and
   Iran. He explained how in the first Gulf War, the debate in Turkey was
   over how Iran could use the situation to fill a power vacuum in Kurdistan
   and challenge Turkey. At that time, there were discussions of addressing
   the Kurdish issue openly within Turkey to facilitate Turkey*s strategy in
   northern Iraq. But that strategy didn*t get very far, especially with the
   following uptick in PKK violence.

   But again, in 2003, when the US invaded Iraq, the same security concerns
   arose. Turkey wanted to keep Iran at bay and didn*t want to create a power
   vacuum in northern Iraq. But before Turkey could address the Kurdish issue
   as a security issue in Iraq, it had to first deal with its own Kurdish
   problem at home. It wouldn*t make sense to deny the existence of Kurds in
   Turkey when you are fighting Kurds in an insurgency emanating from Iraq.
   This is when we saw the idea taking root again that Turkey has to
   acknowledge the Kurdish cultural identity and integrate them into society.
   Cengiz appears to be a major driver behind the AKP*s efforts to continue
   with this Kurdish initiative and forge closer ties with the KRG
   leadership.  In essence, the idea is that Turkey can guarantee the
   economic and political security of the Iraqi Kurds, and in return the
   Iraqi Kurds will have to respect Turkey*s territorial rights.

   But this isn*t just about northern Iraq for Turkey. The Turks know that
   Turkmens in Iraq are not the sufficient outlet for Turkey to expand its
   influence in Iraq and in the Gulf. Turkey also works with Iraqi Sunni and
   Shiite leaders, but at the end of the day, the Shiites turn to Iran for
   guidance and the Sunnis turn to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, etc. He says Iranian
   influence in Iraq is not as much as people might think.

   Therefore, Turkey needs Kurds in Iraq. They also need Turkey to export
   their goods. By using Turkish influence over the Kurds in Iraq, Turkey can
   expand its influence in the country and then use Iraq as a launchpad for
   influence in the Gulf. They can*t just skip over Iraq to reach the Saudis.
   Turkey has made progress in areas around its own borders in places like
   Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, etc. But to reach the Gulf, they need Iraq first.

    

   We talked about how the AKP stumbled a bit in its Kurdish opening
   initiative, but it isn*t dead.  He said that the MIT (national
   intelligence) led the effort in negotiating with Ocalan and PKK to allow
   PKK rebels from Maghmur and Qandil to return to Turkey. That caused major
   blowback inside Turkey, though. After that, the PM had the police take
   over the initiative. This is when we saw the crackdown on DTP/PKK in
   Turkey as well as in Europe.

    

   Will be seeing Cengiz again in DC in a few weeks.

    

   IsBank

    

   We met Friday afternoon with the representatives at Isbank. Caglan had
   with her their senior banking and economic analysts. Again, the contrast
   between the humble Gulenist organizations and these huge fancy corporate
   buildings was remarkable. At Isbank, everyone was very young, attractive,
   hip, modern.

    

   They had a full presentation prepared for us on Turkey*s macroeconomy,
   which they had done for their clients.  Most of what they showed us
   confirmed what we already had prepared in our own economic assessment, but
   they really helped us to understand what allowed Turkey to cope with the
   financial crisis so well. A lot of Turkish businessmen were able to react
   quickly to the crisis and find new markets. Still, they a long way to
   recover their losses from 2009.

    

   Our question about the cyclical downturn in industrial production was
   answered. The econ researcher said the automotive industry constitutes 50%
   of Turkey*s industrial production. In times of financial stress, people
   usually sacrifice their automobile expenses. They don*t need to get that
   second car for their wife, kind of thing. Also everyone knows that car
   dealers usually give discounts at the end of the year, and so plan for
   that. Automobile industry is also huge for Turkish employment rates since
   2.5 million people work in this industry.

    

   Turkey passed more than 100 legal arrangements after the 2001 banking
   crisis with the aim of increasing transparency in the banking sector. They
   described how they have to report their transactions on a daily basis, and
   how that transparency really helped Turkey in this crisis whereas the
   European states were dealing with major transparency issues. Turkey also
   wasn*t exposed to toxic assets like the others were. NPL concerns are also
   calming down. Their main concern is inflation... they expect further rate
   hikes this year as the government will be spending heavily in the lead-up
   to elections.

    

   I asked about how the power struggle plays out in the banking sector. They
   were all pretty clearly anti-Gulenist so it was easy to talk to them about
   it. They said the government doesn*t have a concrete channel within the
   banking sector to support their own allies, but they are in a position to
   influence banks through individual channels. Ziraat bank is an example of
   this. They said that they don*t really see cases in which the big banks
   like Isbank, traditionally dominated by the nationalist/secularists, have
   denied financing to the Anatolian businessmen and to AKP projects. They
   don*t create obstacles for investment. At the same time, they see the
   struggle play out when you see businessmen like Calik getting contracts
   with AKP*s help.

    

   I have a lot more detailed info on the Turkish economic assessment, but
   all that info is in my suitcase, which is floating around Frankfurt still.
   The Isbank people are also putting us on their private client mailing list
   so we can get their monthly econ assessments. They are really thorough and
   are a great resource for us to monitor Turkey's economic health.
</description>
    <date>2010-03-16 17:38:22</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-10 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1117571_insight-part-ii-of-turkey-trip-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1118044</id>
    <title>Re: Albania
</title>
    <description>   Words like "adherence to rules of engagement", "schooled", "non-lethal
   options".... there is no place for those words in a place like Albania.

   :)

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Nate Hughes" &lt;nathan.hughes@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2011 11:50:07 AM
   Subject: Re: Albania

   Ensuring adherence to rules of engagement (assuming there has even been
   stern, clear guidance given) in riot control scenarios can itself be
   difficult. Combine that with police who may not be well schooled in it and
   do not have a whole lot of non-lethal options besides a club, and you've
   got a recipe for people getting shot.

   That said, agree that the significance is the political and the popular
   perception of what happened.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Alex Hayward &lt;alex.hayward@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2011 11:44:15 -0600 (CST)
   To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Albania
   According to the AP, "The Prosecutor General's office said arrest warrants
   had been issued for six officers of the National Guard, army troops under
   Interior Ministry command who guard government institutions and senior
   officials."

   On 1/22/11 9:42 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     Is there a chance The cops were not actually the ones who killed the
     three? I didnt see any reports or photos indicating the riot police even
     had guns. And the type of pistol used to fire the rounds was listed in
     an article yesterday. I know nothing about guns so am of no use here,
     but would it be helpful to know The kind of firearm used?

     Either way, doesnt matter. All that matters is the political angle and
     the fact that the opposition perceives the police to be culpable

     Btw artillery?!

     On 2011 Jan 22, at 08:51, Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

         From TrapWire contact (former CIA clandestine officer)

       Not sure if STRATFOR's following events there -- but I chatted with
       some
       contacts in Tirana and tomorrow (Sunday) protests are expected to be
       even larger than yesterday's -- with many in the crowd bent on
       retaliation for the police killing of three protestors. (As always,
       rumor mills are in overdrive in the Balkans with claims being made
       that
       the cops targeted these protestors for assassination. No proof yet
       that
       that's the case. Having dealt with Albanian cops for three years, I
       can
       assure you though they dona**t need much pushing to draw their
       weapons.
       They actually fired artillery rounds onto protestors during the chaos
       of
       '97). Tough times in Tirana right now.

       Mike

 --
 Alex Hayward
 STRATFOR Research Intern

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 20:11:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1118044_re-albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>nathan.hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1118135</id>
    <title>Re: B2 Re: B3* - GREECE/EU/IMF - Papandreou: It's time for Europe,
	otherwise there is the IMF
</title>
    <description>   heh - the IMF would be a lot meaner than europe

   Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

     confirmation here

     http://www.ana-mpa.gr/anaweb/user/showplain?maindoc=8483656&amp;service=142

     PM leaves open prospect of Greek recourse to IMF if EU backing not
     forthcoming, gov't source says

        Prime minister George Papandreou left open the prospect of Greece
     taking recourse in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) if Greece is
     not financially backed by the EU, speaking to a lengthy Cabinet meeting
     on Wednesday during which supplementary measures for the economy were
     discussed, according to a senior government official.

        The same official added that EU backing is the main goal and
     orientation of the government.

        Another official said that the anticipated reactions to the measures,
     due to be announced in the next few hours, are understandable, but the
     government is determined for the country's survival.

        Government economic circles said that the measures to be announced
     will not affect the pensioners' benefits, while VAT rebates to farmers
     will be increased from the current 7 percent to 11 percent.

     Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

       Poor translation from Google but I think Papandreou says that if EU
       won't give, they'll have to ask IMF - I'll keep looking to confirm
       (see red bold below)

       Papandreou: It's time for Europe, otherwise there is the IMF
       Tetarty, 03 03 2010 12:39 Wednesday 03 03 2010 12:39
       E-mail Print PDF

       Papoulias-Papandreou-003 Tyn anti%drasy ty*s Eurwpajky%*s E%nwsy*s
       perime%nei o Prwthupourgo%*s meta% tyn apo%fasy gia tyn efarmogy% twn
       me%trwn ecugi%ansy*s ty*s Ellyniky%*s oikonomi%a*s, enw% milw%nta*s
       sto upourgiko% Sumbou%lio, to%nise pw*s emei%*s steko%maste sto u%qo*s
       twn perista%sewn. The reaction of the European Union expects the Prime
       Minister following the decision to implement the consolidation
       measures of the Greek economy, while speaking at the Council of
       Ministers, stressed that we stand to the occasion. To mesyme%ri, o
       Giw%rgo*s Papandre%ou enyme%rwse ton Pro%edro ty*s Dymokrati%a*s gia
       ta ne%a me%tra. At noon, George Papandreou briefed the President of
       the Republic on the new measures. " Ku%rie Pro%edre, du%skole*s
       apofa%sei*s se mia du%skoly stigmy% gia ty xw%ra " ane%fere o
       Prwthupourgo%*s, apeuthuno%meno*s pro*s ton Ka%rolo Papou%lia kata% ty
       suna%ntysy% tou*s sto Proedriko% Me%garo. "Mr President, difficult
       decisions at a difficult moment for the country," said the Prime
       Minister, he appealed to the Karolos Papoulias during their meeting at
       the Presidential Palace. "Du%skole*s me%re*s" ei%pe apo% tyn pleura%
       tou o k. Papou%lia*s, upogrammi%zonta*s o%ti " pre%pei na apokty%soume
       tyn koinwniky% aciopisti%a me koinwniky% euaisthysi%a kai nomi%zw o%ti
       se auto% tha antapokrithei% o ellyniko%*s lao%*s, o%tan peistei% o%ti
       ei%nai swsta% kai di%kaia ta me%tra kai o%ti pre%pei na prosfe%roun
       perisso%tera autoi% pou e%xoun perisso%tera ". "Rainy day" said the
       part of Mr. Papoulias stressed that "we must have social credibility
       of social awareness and I think this will meet the Greek people, when
       convinced that it is properly and fairly and that measures should be
       offer more people who have more. "

       "Du%skole*s me%re*s, alla% anagkai%a ta o%sa apofasi%same. Py%rame
       du%skole*s apofa%sei*s se mia du%skoly kata%stasy" to%nise o k.
       Papandre%ou milw%nta*s me ton k. Papou%lia. "Difficult days, but need
       what we decided. We took tough decisions in a difficult situation,"
       said Papandreou, speaking with Mr. Papoulias.

       O Prwthupourgo%*s symei%wse o%ti y xw%ra ma*s bre%thyke sty di%ny tou
       kuklw%na, twn pistwtw%n kai twn diethnw%n agorw%n kai pro%sthese pw*s,
       "dei%xnoume, y Ella%da kai o ellyniko%*s lao%*s o%ti mporei%
       acio%pista na pai%rnei apofa%sei*s". The Prime Minister noted that the
       country we found the vortex of the storm, creditors and international
       markets, adding that, "showing, Greece and the Greek people that can
       reliably make decisions."

       "Aname%noume dikai%w*s pia tyn eurwpajky% allyleggu%y kai ei%nai y
       a%lly pleura% auty%*s ty*s sumfwni%a*s" to%nise o k. Papandre%ou kai
       e%kane lo%go gia istoriky% euthu%ny kai ty*s Eurw%py*s. "We are
       waiting right now for European solidarity and the other side of this
       agreement," said Mr. Papandreou spoke of historical responsibility and
       Europe.
       Ako%my, o Prwthupourgo%*s ane%fere o%ti "ei%nai pia auto% to anagkai%o
       by%ma gia na pa%me se mia ma%xy gia mega%le*s allage%*s" kai me%tra
       koinwniky%*s dikaiosu%ny*s kai prostasi%a*s tou poli%ty, w%ste na
       ce%rei ple%on o%ti y politei%a se%betai ton i%dio kai ta xry%mata% tou
       kai tou dymiourgei% prooptike%*s gia ergasi%a kai ana%ptucy. Even the
       Prime Minister stated that "this is no longer necessary step to go
       into a battle for big changes" and measures of social justice and
       protection of citizens to know now that the state respects himself and
       his money and raises outlook work and development.

       "Auty% ty ma%xy di%noume kai tha ty dw%soume o%loi, y kube%rnysy mazi%
       kai di%pla me ton ellyniko% lao%", to%nise o Prwthupourgo%*s. "This
       battle we will give to everyone, with the government and side with the
       Greek people," said the Prime Minister.

       "Ku%rie pro%edre, ei%nai swsta% auta% pou le%te" ei%pe o k.
       Papou%lia*s. "Mr President, it is correct what you say," Mr.
       Papoulias. Upogra%mmise de, o%ti "pre%pei na apokty%soume tyn
       koinwniky% aciopisti%a me koinwniky% euaisthysi%a kai nomi%zw o%ti se
       auto% tha antapokrithei% o ellyniko%*s lao%*s, o%tan peistei% o%ti
       ei%nai swsta% kai di%kaia ta me%tra kai o%ti pre%pei na prosfe%roun
       perisso%tera autoi% pou e%xoun perisso%tera". Underlined that "we must
       have social credibility of social awareness and I think this will meet
       the Greek people, when convinced that it is properly and fairly and
       that the measures should provide more people who have more."

       O k. Papandre%ou symei%wse me ty seira% tou o%ti pre%pei na ei%nai
       analogika% ta ba%ry. Papandreou noted in turn that it must be
       proportionate weights.

       O Prwthupourgo%*s euxari%styse ton pro%edro ty*s Dymokrati%a*s gia tyn
       prwtobouli%a tou na anala%bei to Tamei%o Sty%ricy*s gia tyn oikonomi%a
       ty*s xw%ra*s, ka%ti pou pro%teine o pro%edro*s ty*s Bouly%*s
       Fi%lippo*s Petsa%lniko*s. The Prime Minister thanked the President of
       the Republic for his initiative to take the Fund to support the
       country's economy, which suggested the chairman of the House Philippos
       Petsalnikos.

       Meta% ty suna%ntysy% tou me ton Pro%edro ty*s Dymokrati%a*s, o
       Prwthupourgo%*s e%kane lo%go gia "du%skole*s apofa%sei*s pou den y%tan
       aplw%*s epilogy%, alla% y%tan ana%gky na pa%roume". After his meeting
       with President of the Republic, the Prime Minister spoke of "difficult
       decisions that were not merely choice, but we needed to take."

       O Prwthupourgo%*s ecy%gyse o%ti oi sugkekrime%ne*s apofa%sei*s ei%nai
       anagkai%e*s gia tyn epibi%wsy ty*s xw%ra*s ma*s, ty*s oikonomi%a*s
       ma*s, gia na fu%gei y Ella%da apo% ty di%ny kai twn kerdosko%pwn kai
       ty*s dusfy%mysy*s. The Prime Minister explained that these decisions
       are necessary for the survival of our country, our economy, to leave
       the Greece of the vortex and speculators and defamation.

       "Na anasa%noume, gia na mpore%soume na dw%soume kai auty% ty ma%xy"
       ei%pe xaraktyristika% o k. Papandre%ou. "To breathe, to be able to
       give and this battle" said Mr Papandreou.

       O Prwthupourgo%*s to%nise o%ti o i%dio*s kai y kube%rnysy di%noun
       mazi% kai di%pla ston ellyniko% lao% ty ma%xy gia mia pio di%kaiy
       koinwni%a, gia ti*s mega%le*s allage%*s pou tha fe%roun ana%ptucy,
       douleie%*s kai prooptiky% ston to%po. The Prime Minister stressed that
       he and the government pay close together and the Greek people to fight
       for a fairer society for major changes that will bring growth, jobs
       and view the site.

       Sugkekrime%na, o k. Papandre%ou styn topothe%tysy% tou sto Upourgiko%
       Sumbou%lio gia tyn efarmogy% twn me%trwn, ei%pe metacu% a%llwn o%ti
       tw%ra y%rthe y w%ra ty*s Eurw%py*s: " Emei%*s analamba%noume ti*s
       euthu%ne*s ma*s kai steko%maste sto u%qo*s twn perista%sewn, to i%dio
       perime%noume na pra%cei kai y EE ". Specifically, Mr. Papandreou to
       put him in the Cabinet to implement the measures, said among other
       things, that now it is time for Europe: "We undertake our
       responsibilities and we stand to the occasion, so expect to do and the
       EU .

       Epi%sy*s, episy%mane o%ti an den upa%rcei ousiastiky% politiky%
       sty%ricy kai eggu%ysy apo% ta eurwpajka% o%rgana, ei%nai anoixto% to
       sena%rio prosfugy%*s ty*s xw%ra*s sto Diethne%*s Nomismatiko% Tamei%o.
       It also commented that if there is substantial political support and
       guaranteed by the European institutions, open the application scenario
       of the country at the International Monetary Fund.

       Su%mfwna me plyrofori%e*s, o Prwthupourgo%*s styri%xthyke o%so pote%
       kai anepifu%lakta apo% o%lo to Upourgiko% Sumbou%lio, sto opoi%o,
       su%mfwna me kubernytiko% ste%lexo*s, upy%rce perisullogy%, enw%
       diatupw%thyke y a%poqy o%ti ei%nai katanoyte%*s oi anameno%mene*s
       antidra%sei*s, wsto%so ekei%no pou kuriarxei% ei%nai y
       apofasistiko%tyta ty*s kube%rnysy*s sto na epibiw%sei y xw%ra.
       According to reports, Prime Minister and supported ever more strongly
       from the Cabinet, which, according to government figures, was
       gathering, and expressed the view that understanding of the expected
       reactions, however, that dominates the government's determination to
       survive the country.

       O%loi antilambano%maste tyn krisimo%tyta twn stigmw%n , ei%pe a%llo
       ste%lexo*s tou oikonomikou% epitelei%ou ty*s kube%rnysy*s,
       anagnwri%zonta*s pw*s tha upa%rcoun orisme%ne*s arnytike%*s
       sune%peie*s styn oikonomiky% drastyrio%tyta kai ti*s time%*s, wsto%so
       to%nise, o%ti auty% ty stigmy% proe%xei y apokata%stasy ty*s
       dunato%tyta*s ty*s xw%ra*s gia daneismo%. We all understand the
       gravity of the dots, "said another member of the economic staff of the
       government, recognizing that there will be some negative impact on
       economic activity and prices, but stressed that this time it is
       important to restore the country's ability to borrow.

       Oi i%dioi ku%kloi to%nisan tauto%xrona, o%ti me ti*s prospa%theie*s
       pou kataba%llei y Ella%da ste%lnetai e%na ceka%tharo my%numa pro*s
       ti*s agore%*s kai tyn Eurwpajky% Epitropy%, o%ti y xw%ra eca%ntlyse ta
       perithw%ria% ty*s apo% tyn a%poqy ty*s ly%qy*s me%trwn. The same
       circles also stressed that the efforts Greece has sent a clear message
       to the markets and the European Commission, the country has exhausted
       the margins in terms of measures.
        

       Pyge%*s: NET, NET 105.8, APE-MPE Sources: NET, NET 105.8, ANA-MPA
</description>
    <date>2010-03-03 14:45:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2001-03-13 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1118135_re-b2-re-b3-greece-eu-imf-papandreou-it-s-time-for-europe.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1118240</id>
    <title>Tirana update
</title>
    <description>&gt;From TrapWire --


Fred,

My contact's comments/opinions on your last. (Same contact: Former
Senior Albanian LE official.)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


·         The report is fairly accurate as regards local press reporting
on the personal opinions expressed in the article.

·         The most contentious issue at this point is the police refusal
to arrest six members of the Republican Guard as requested by the
Prosecutor General. This is the first time Albanian police have ever
refused to carry-out such an order. Great deal of concern within the
govt regarding the loyalties of the police force at the moment.

·         Berisha continues to justify the shootings, claiming that the
constitution allows deadly force when protecting a government
institution. What he has failed to explain is the fact that the three
protestors appeared to have been shot outside the Ministry gates, on
public property.

·         The fact that Meta would make claims against Rama is not
surprising. Meta is embarrassed by the release of the video tape
alleging his involvement in a bribe for a public tender to construct a
hydroelectric power plant. Meta is probably desperate to get someone
else into the spotlight.

·         (Personal opinion of the source: The claims of Rama hiring
"criminals" for the protests are unfounded and typical of the heated
rhetoric in Albanian politics. Local newspapers are also running stories
-- sourced to the Minister of Public Order -- that 300 of the protestors
were "drugged" prior to the event. (Allegedly to make them more hostile
towards police). On top of this, PM Berisha has now jumped on the
bandwagon in accusing SHISH of working with Rama to turn the protest
violent.)
</description>
    <date>2011-01-24 16:24:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1118240_tirana-update-.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1118344</id>
    <title>Re: Google's Cohen Activist Role
</title>
    <description>   I am speaking to him tomorrow.

   On 2/10/2011 4:53 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 State is behind these events

 Sean Noonan wrote:

 I sent this out yesterday to tactical.

 On 2/10/11 3:04 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 Oh my, the State Dept is the orgs public sponsor....plot thickens.

 Fred Burton wrote:
    

       JARED COHEN

 *Co-Founder and Board Member*

 **

 Jared Cohen is the Director of Google Ideas, a new entity at Google
 aiming to re-frame and act on old challenges in new and innovative ways.
 He is also an Adjunct Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, where
 he focuses on terrorism and counter-radicalization, the impact of
 connection technologies, and "21st century statecraft."Previously, he
 served for four years as a member of the State Department's Policy
 Planning Staff under both Secretaries of State Condoleezza Rice and
 Hillary Clinton. In this capacity, he advised on the Middle East, South
 Asia, counter-terrorism, counter-radicalization, and the development of
 the "21st century statecraft" agenda. He is twice a recipient of the
 Secretary of State's Meritorious Honor Award.

 Cohen is author of the books Children of Jihad: A Young American's
 Travels Among the Youth of the Middle East and One Hundred Days of
 Silence: America and the Rwanda Genocide. He has also written several
 articles, including "Diverting the Radicalization Track" (Policy Review)
 and "Iran's Young Opposition" (SAIS Review). He received his BA from
 Stanford University and his M.Phil in International Relations from
 Oxford University, where he studied as a Rhodes Scholar.

 Cohen has traveled extensively throughout Africa, where he examined
 issues related to democracy, governance, and genocide. He has also
 conducted research in Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon,
 looking at opposition groups, the spread of technology, and interviewing
 militants ranging from Hezbollah to several Al-Qaeda affiliated groups.
 He is fluent in Swahili. In his spare time, he enjoys painting,
 collecting presidential campaign memorabilia, and reading about Tudor
 England. He has twice served as a juror at the Tribeca Film Festival.



 Fred Burton wrote:
  
      

 Google source advises that Cohen was part of the founding group. Google,
 Facebook, others

 Fred Burton wrote:
  
    
        

 http://www.movements.org/


 Ben West wrote:
  
    
      
          

 This is what i get at that link



 On 2/10/2011 2:27 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
    
      
        
            

 From Source --

 A site created to help online organization of groups and individuals to
 move democracy in stubborn nations.  Funded through public-private
 partnerships.

 Ben West wrote:
    
      
        
          
              

 I don't think this website is registered. It just has an add for
 breitling watches.

 On 2/10/2011 2:16 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
      
        
          
            
                

 http://movements.com/hc3.asp

 ** Source advises this umbrella group is linked to Cohen and Google.
    
        
          
            
              
                  

 --
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX
  
      
        
          
            
                

 --
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX
  
    
      
        
            

 --

 Sean Noonan

 Tactical Analyst

 Office: +1 512-279-9479

 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

 www.stratfor.com


   --
</description>
    <date>2011-02-10 23:48:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-14 22:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1118344_re-google-s-cohen-activist-role-.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1119001</id>
    <title>Thoughts on Der Spiegel?
</title>
    <description>200</description>
    <date>2010-01-25 18:41:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-11 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1119001_thoughts-on-der-spiegel-.html</permalink>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1119571</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - Turkey - Gulen, business cycle, Africa, IMF, etc.
</title>
    <description>   This is not how the Gulenists operate. They are ambitious and working on a
   bottoms-up approach to change the Kemalist nature of the state. But they
   will not openly violate religious principles to promote them. This sounds
   like conspiracy theory. I know many Gulenists and they are nothing like
   this. I don't think this part should be published.

   ---

   Sent from my BlackBerry device on the Rogers Wireless Network

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Sat, 20 Feb 2010 13:25:21 -0600
   To: Secure List&lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: INSIGHT - Turkey - Gulen, business cycle, Africa, IMF, etc.
   PUBLICATION: For Turkey analysis series that I'm working on
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: extremely well-informed and well-connected Turkish
   source based in DC
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY:  A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:  secure
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
   (this was a meeting to get me ready for my trip to Turkey. For security
   reasons, we're not going to publish the Turkey series on Gulen till after
   I come back)
   Gulen 'sleeper' cells
   I talked to him about what I learned from another source about the
   Gulenist 'sleeper families'. He confirmed that this is the case and
   explained in more detail how it works. Essentially you will have a family
   where the wife will be very modern, no headscarf, the man can go drinking,
   vacation on the French Riviera, get a Russian prostitute, etc., the kids
   will grow up secular, socialize with military kids in school. The whole
   time though you will have them report regularly to a case officer in
   Gulen, who will place them strategically in institutions where they need
   to build influence.  We also discussed the specific ways in which the
   Gulen targets its opponents or potential agents of influence (some good
   things for me to be aware of given stratfor's profile in turkey - very
   similar to the Chinese method of buying influence on a grassroots level).
   In short, it's very difficult to tell who you're talking to. You could be
   sitting down with someone bashing AKP and drinking whiskey, and they could
   be a hardcore Gulenist.
   Gulen's Relationship with AKP
   We've talked about AKP's symbiotic, but often tense relationship with
   Gulen. Need to note that Gulen doesn't like Erdogan. When the AKP last
   faced the threat of being banned, Gulen supported them through the whole
   ordeal, but as soon as it was clear AKP would remain, orders were given to
   Gulen media to attack Erdogan in the news. Gulen is much closer
   ideologically to Gul and Davutoglu. Need to watch this dynamic closely.
   How to tell a Gulenist
   -Gulenists will not refer to the Gulen movement as Gulen, but as Hoca
   Ofendi; anti-Gulenists will refer to it as Gulen or worse, by the leaders
   first name Faitullah
   - see how paranoid the person you are talking to is with their phone. If
   they bring it to a mtg and leave the battery in, they could be Gulenist,
   ie. not afraid to talk. If they are paranoid and disassemble or check
   their phone at the front lobby (this is apparently common now in Turkey),
   then they are afraid of Gulen/police surveillance. 
   - when talking to a man, pay attention to the metal of their ring.
   Hardcore Islamists won't wear gold and will wear silver instead. It is a
   very symbolic thing in Turkey religiously to go from gold to silver or
   vice-versa
   - Gulenists love to use cosmic and galactic sounding names for their
   organizations - anything to do with space, milky way, time (zaman), peace
   and harmony, etc.
   Gulen Influence in Police Intelligence
   I asked how the Gulen developed into such an unbelievably sophisticated
   intelligence organization. He explained in detail how the Gulen were able
   to build so much influence within the police intelligence. The police were
   always the weaker force in Turkey. It was always the military intelligence
   of course that had the most clout. The way he explained it was that the
   gendarmerie, the branch of the Turkish armed forces that patrols the
   countryside (outside of police control) controlled some 97% of the
   country, while the police controlled some 3% of the population in urban
   Turkey. In the early 1990s, the PM at the time, Ciller, while very
   secular, thought it would be a good idea to build up the police intel as a
   way to counter the military and balance power more effectively. The US at
   the time supplied the Turkish police at the time with surveillance
   technology and other forms of technical equipment and expertise (remember
   this was a time when cell phone technology was starting to take off). The
   Turks then developed an indigenous capability and empowered themselves
   through that. The Gulen started early in placing their people in the
   police ranks, realizing that the institution would rise to power. Today,
   the police intelligence is the main institution driving all these
   Ergenekon investigations, tax audits, etc. It's a political tool, and a
   very effective one at that.
   Turkey won't take IMF loan
   Turkey won't take the IMF loan. They'll continue to keep the issue alive
   but string it along and make clear that they're past the worst part of the
   economic storm.  Why won't they take it?  IMF is placing a condition on
   the loan for Turkey to create an independent tax audit body. There's no
   way AKP/Gulen could agree to that. The tax audits are what allows them to
   neutralize their business and media opponents (very Russian-like).
   Rise of AKP oligarchs
   Strongest areas of Gulen/AKP influence -- police, lower judiciary,
   ministry of foreign affairs, newly established universities
   AKP/Gulen is still far behind the nationalists in the banking sector. Emre
   and I are breaking down the top 10 Forbes Turkish business families over
   the past several years, and clearly the mainstay secular families
   (Sabanci, Koc, Dogan, etc) are dominant. That said, the AKP/Gulen may not
   have the support of the multi-billionaires, but the strength of the
   small-med business families cannot be ignored. These together make up a
   powerful force. 
   In our discussion, we broke down the four types of business families in
   modern Turkey
   a) Those that are staunchly secular/nationalist, anti-AKP and anti-Gulen
   (Koc, Dogan)
   b) Those that are secular/nationalist and anti-Gulen but more neutral
   toward AKP out of business interest (Sabanci, Sahenk (NTV), Dogus,
   Ozyegin)
   c) Those that are pro-AKP, fake supporters of Gulen for their own business
   and personal protection - (Calik, Zorlu)
   d) Those that are legitimately pro-AKP and pro-Gulen - (Ulkher)
   The Gulen Business Cycle
   (this is so cool... i'm going to create a visual graphic of this cycle for
   the series we publish)
   This is how the Gulen spreads beyond Turkey in business territory:
   Say I'm a button maker for dress shirts in Denizli, Konya, Kayseri,
   Gaziantep, etc (these are all more conservative provinces where AKP/Gulen
   has strong support). If I support AKP/Gulen, then they will arrange a spot
   for me in the supply chain and set up contracts for me with all the shirt
   makers I need to do business with. If I don't cooperate, they'll deny me
   land, and I'll have the tax auditing office come after me.
   Gulen in Africa
   Now, to spread internationally, we've talked already about how Gulen is in
   the balkans, a lot of the former Soviet space, etc but it's more difficult
   to operate in some of these areas where they don't know Islam or where you
   have strong authoritarian regimes.  Africa, however, is perfect because
   you have little to no transparency, it's virgin territory and it's
   chaotic, lots of Muslims and undeveloped.
   Gulen/AKP will organize a big business forum in X African country. Usually
   organized by Tuscan business lobby group. Tuscan will work with the MFA
   officials and the ambassador there to faciltate your business contacts.
   You'll get a lucrative contract. In return, you donate a sizable sum to
   fund a school in the country. These Gulenist schools (note - i have tons
   of research on this - many of them are also in the US) have top-notch
   facilities and disciplines, ie. where the elites of these countries would
   send their kids. The idea is to indoctrinate the children of these state
   leaders early in these schools so that when they rise to power, they are
   already tied into Gulen. Very sophisticated, deliberate and long-term
   approach to build influence in these countries. A lot of the elites in
   these countries will become paranoid because they can't be sure if these
   kids will turn on them and charge them for not being good Muslims, etc.
   The point is for the Gulen to be able to influence political decisions and
   raise the political elite in these countries. 
   To map out where Gulen is operating, we are going to look at a couple
   things:
   a) where Turkey has opened up new embassies recently (there's been a ton)
   b) new Turkish Airlines routes that have opened recently 
   * note Calik just got a contract for a refinery in Sudan .. beat out the
   Indian bid. AKP/Gulen helped facilitate this deal. They're focused a lot
   on Sudan lately.
   Gulen and universities
   Turkey's long-established universities are run and dominated by the
   secularist/nationalists. But Gulen is creating its new class of
   universities. In past 7 years, the number of universities in Turkey has
   grown from 70 to 140.. nearly doubled. These are all privately funded by
   Gulenist businessmen. I'll be checking out some of these universities
   while I'm there. 
   have a lot more, but these were some of the highlights. 
</description>
    <date>2010-02-20 22:41:08</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-16 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1119571_re-insight-turkey-gulen-business-cycle-africa-imf-etc-.html</permalink>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1120794</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - RUSSIA - nationalism
</title>
    <description>    

   CODE: RU157
   PUBLICATION:  yes/background
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Moscow
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Kremlin thinktank
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISSEMINATION: Analysts
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

   There is a massive rise in nationalism, but it must be carefully
   explained.

   There is a clear difference between Russian Muslims and Foreign Muslims.

    

   Social discrimination is not about religion. It isn't about being Muslim.
   It is about being a part of a different culture. For example, those
   nationals protesting in the squares recently weren't protesting Islam, but
   different cultures and terrorism. (We discussed how this was different
   than the protests in the US, like the Mosque protest. Those protests were
   against Mosques and Islam-not about them being socially different.)

    

   Muslims live in pockets in Moscow and do not conform to Russian society.
   They are considered criminal and disruptive. Even their kids are
   considered poor students and disruptive in schools.

    

   So the nationals are first against different cultural identities, and then
   second against religious identities.

    
   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-02-23 17:13:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1120794_insight-russia-nationalism-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.wilson@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1121800</id>
    <title>Re: GOOGLE &amp; Iran ** internal use only - pls do not forward **
</title>
    <description>GOOGLE is getting WH and State Dept. support &amp; air cover.   In reality,
they are doing things the CIA cannot do.  But, I agree with you.  He's
going to get himself kidnapped or killed.  Might be the best thing to
happen to expose GOOGLE's covert role in foaming up-risings, to be
blunt.  The US Govt can then disavow knowledge and GOOGLE is left
holding the shit bag. 

scott stewart wrote:
&gt; Cohen might end up having an accident if he is not careful. This is not
&gt; child's play. 
&gt;
&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt; From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
&gt; Sent: Sunday, February 27, 2011 9:28 AM
&gt; To: Secure List
&gt; Subject: GOOGLE &amp; Iran ** internal use only - pls do not forward ** 
&gt;
&gt; *** PLS DO NOT FORWARD -- SOLE SOURCE
&gt;
&gt; ** Extracted from an internal email to a senior Google Executive.  The
&gt; msg is from Jared Cohen (the former policy appointee @ State) and
&gt; discusses Cohen's plans on meeting w/Iranians. 
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
&gt; ------------------------------------------------
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; I wanted to follow-up and get a sense of your latest thinking on the
&gt; proposed March trip to UAE, Azerbaijan, and Turkey.  The purpose of this
&gt; trip is to exclusively engage the Iranian community to better understand
&gt; the challenges faced by Iranians as part of one of our Google Ideas
&gt; groups on repressive societies.
&gt;
&gt; Here is what we are thinking:
&gt;
&gt; Drive to Azerbaijan/Iranian border and engage the Iranian communities
&gt; closer to the border (this is important because we need the Azeri
&gt; Iranian perspective)
&gt;
&gt;   
</description>
    <date>2011-02-27 15:31:56</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-14 22:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1121800_re-google-and-iran-internal-use-only-pls-do-not-forward-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1122191</id>
    <title>Egypt - Google ** Suggest you read 
</title>
    <description>** Cohen had dinner in Cairo the night before the Google Exec was picked
up by GOE State Security.....one-hour after the dinner, the Gypo exec
was grabbed off the streets heading into a friends apt.  

More to follow.....

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/09/07/jared_cohen


  State Department Innovator Goes to Google
  &lt;http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/09/07/jared_cohen&gt;


    Jared Cohen, a high-profile advocate of the State Department's
    forays into "21st-century statecraft," is leaving Foggy Bottom for
    New York. In an exclusive interview with FP, he talks about his time
    at State and his new project: building a "think/do tank" called
    Google Ideas.
</description>
    <date>2011-02-09 15:05:19</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-14 22:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1122191_egypt-google-suggest-you-read-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1122461</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - TURKEY - AKP spat with largest media group - TR5
</title>
    <description>   yep, and im going to be getting additional insight on this from a source
   tomorrow to flesh it all out for the analysis we're working on on the
   media crackdown
   On Jan 19, 2010, at 8:33 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     Confirms some of what Emre heard from his contact at the paper.
      
     SOURCE CODE: TR5
     PUBLICATION: If we want to 
     SOURCE: A senior editor at Hurriyet
     ATTRIBUTION: Turkish media sources
     SOURCE RELIABILITY:  A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
     SPECIAL HANDLING: Not Applicable 
     DISTRIBUTION: Secure
     SOURCE HANDLER: Kamran
      
     hi kamran
     i am including a pdf file, which may help you track the process, it has
     a good timeline on the tax cases. our web site also has a section
     ("power to tax, power to destroy") in which we publish important new
     about the dispute.
      
     There is a criminal case against dogan family members, regarding
     allegations of purchasing cheap paper from abroad but showing it
     expensive, thus "cheating" shareholders... but we doubt it will end with
     jail terms. so thats an exaggeration.
     the real issue is the "forced divestment" here, as Dogan Media Group is
     forced to downsize as if an invisible agreement is in place with the
     government. i.e. divest and i'll lift the tax cases against you... so
     dogan is indeed in talks with the ipek-koza group, regarded as
     pro-government, to sell part of his empire. the talks may come to a
     conclusion in less than a month, and a group of media outlets including
     Milliyet may be sold for around half a billion dollars.
     The dogan group has decided to use "professional CEOs" from outside the
     family. so first aydin dogan resigned. his daughters may also, in time,
     leave their posts to CEOs from outside the family. ertugrul o:zko:k, the
     20-year editorinchief of Hu:rriyet, has also resigned and left his post
     to Enis Berberoglu, the Ankara representative of the newspaper. But
     contrary to what the FT wrote, for example, Berberoglu is a journalist
     that has been criticising the government much harsher than Ozko:k.
     &lt;DMG.pdf&gt;
</description>
    <date>2010-01-19 15:34:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-20 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1122461_re-insight-turkey-akp-spat-with-largest-media-group-tr5-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1122770</id>
    <title>Re: Euro finance ministers to agree on Greek aid: source | CALENDAR
	MAR 15
</title>
    <description>   Here are some of the options for what could happen tomorrow:

   1. They say they agree to the idea of establishing a facility. Changes
   nothing.

   2. They say they are planning to establish a facility. Changes nothing.

   3. They say they are currently establishing a facility. Changes nothing.

   4. They say they have established a facility. Depends on the details.

   If they announce a facility, it'll likely be composed of guarantees.
   Guaranteeing Greek debt would probably lower CDS spreads and Greece's
   borrowing costs slightly, but the impact would only be at the margin.
   Since the Greek economy will continue to contract, there's no reason why
   Greece's borrowing costs won't, at the very least, stay elevated, and thus
   continue to undermine the efficacy of Athens' austerity measures.

   The fact is that the only thing that will substantially help Greece is
   loans at far below market rates. Unfortunately, even if the Eurozone
   agrees to supply Greece with 0% loans, while it will ameliorate the
   imminent threat of a liquidity crisis (for now), that credit line will do
   nothing to help get Greece back on a sustainable fiscal path.
</description>
    <date>2010-03-15 02:40:47</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2001-03-13 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1122770_re-euro-finance-ministers-to-agree-on-greek-aid-source.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>robert.reinfrank@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1124918</id>
    <title>Re: Albania
</title>
    <description>   He was, until the anarchy.

   I have heard that he in fact profited immensely from the beginnings of KLA
   operations in Kosovo and that he aided them greatly. But that is not at
   all exclusive to this insight. That he then made his money smuggling
   gasoline to Serbia during embargo also makes sense.

   On 1/25/11 7:27 PM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     many Kosovars remember that Berisha gave only lukewarm support to the
     KLA, and was   believed to have profited personally by allowing fuel
     shipments into Serbia and Montenegro, despite the NATO embargo at the
     time.
     so i guess that means the weapons flow in 1997 was not b/c of anything
     Berisha did (err, wait, was he in power back then? my Albanian history
     is getting all jumbled)

     On 1/25/11 6:09 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

       From TrapWire in response to Marko's questions --
        

       Fred -- Just in. Haven't had time to give a good scrub/spell check
       etc. so might be a bit raw. (His English is excellent, but not
       perfect).  M

       ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
          

        

        

        

                   1. Any thoughts on what repercussions unrest in Albania
       could have for the region as a whole?

        

                   Instability in Albania generally means instability within
       the Albanian diaspora in the region.

        

       .         Kosova: Just came out of general elections and is now facing
       an internal crises . The winning party does not have enough votes to
       elect a PM or create a new government. At the same time, the
       leadership of the winning party has been accused for war crimes and
       trafficking in human organs by a Swiss reporter. These issues have
       endangered the current political process towards Kosovo independence.
       Negotiations with Serbia are now on hold. An unstable political
       situation in Albania will be a big loss for Kosovo. Kosovo has no
       representation in international institutions and Albania is her
       biggest supporter and ally regarding Kosovo foreign policy.  A crisis
       in Albania will make the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia, which is
       seeking a division of northern Kosovo.

        

       .         Macedonia: Our neighboring country has a population of 30%
       Albanians, who have been in constant conflict with the Macedonian
       government regarding their rights as a minority. Macedonian-Albanians
       are divided in to two groups:  one that is more liberal and has
       assimilated into Macedonian society; and the other a much more radical
       group that is in conflict Macedonian policies. Add to this Macedonia's
       on-going conflict with Greece, and one could speculate that any major
       crisis in Albania will only compound the problems inside Macedonia --
       particularly for those Albanians seeking greater rights inside
       Macedonia. There is a precedence for this problem during the 1997
       conflict in Albania.

        

       .         Greece: Our only neighboring country with EU membership is
       still going through a very bad political and economic crises itself.
       There are almost 1.5 million Albanians living in Greece -- many are
       illegal immigrants working illegally. Another crises in Albania could
       likely fuel another mass exodus to Greece (and Italy) -- particularly
       now that Albanians can finally travel without visas in Europe.   

        

       2.  After 1997 anarchy, weapons flowed across the borders to Kosovo
       and Macedonia. Any chance that another crisis has an effect on
       neighboring countries?

        

                   In my opinion, it is unlikely the current situation will
       deteriorate to the point of 1997, which was fueled by economic
       collapse rather than only political differences. Albanians still have
       strong memories and feelings about this period, and would likely try
       to avoid a repeat...particularly as the only groups who will profit
       from another crises would be the weapons, drugs, and fuel traffickers
       .

              

        

                   3.  What is Berisha's role in neighboring Kosovo and
       Macedonia. Does he have influence with Kosovo leadership? Or
       Macedonian Albanian leadership?

        

                   Generally speaking, Berisha does not have much of a role
       in the region. He continues to be viewed as a model of the old
       leadership. Clearly, Kosovo will always          need the support of
       the Albanian PM and his government; however, many Kosovars remember
       that Berisha gave only lukewarm support to the KLA, and was   believed
       to have profited personally by allowing fuel shipments into Serbia and
       Montenegro, despite the NATO embargo at the time. Berisha is still
       viewed as             having too close of ties to Serbia -- one of his
       closest contacts is Damir Fasllic, a character who is believed to have
       contacts at the highest levels of the Serbian           government.
       Berisha does not appear to have particularly strong ties to Macedonia
       and, with the loss of Jukanovic, probably has limited influence in
       Montenegro as          well

                

        

                    4.  If there is a change in government to Edvin Rama,
       would it in any way change the situation in Albania or region?

        

                   Edvin Rama is the leader of the Albanian opposition
       Socialist Party -- which represents about 50 % of the Albanian voters.
       Rama is known as a head-strong and       somewhat radical figure
       amongst the international community in Albania. He is not very good at
       dialoguing -- often creating situations that neither side can win.
                 Despite these weaknesses, Rama represents the "modern"
       leader that many Albanians have been hoping for since 1990. His work
       in modernizing and cleaning-up             the capital has made him
       very popular, and given him the image of someone who can get things
       done for the people (He has twice been re-elected as mayor).         
       Rama's popularity and modern thinking has been commented on favorably
       by many EU leaders and representatives.

        

 --
 Marko Papic
 Analyst - Europe
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
</description>
    <date>2011-01-26 02:40:42</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1124918_re-albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bayless.parsley@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1127361</id>
    <title>Re: G3/S3* - Turkey - Two more journalists jailed over coup plot
</title>
    <description>   I agree, but keep in mind that this election will be the last greatest
   opportunity for Gulen to own AKP. Erdogan will not run for PM again, he
   will become president. AKP's votes (without Erdogan's leadership) may tend
   to decrease in the next elections after this one. Also, do not think that
   Gulen wants these MPs out of the blue. The movement will increase AKP's
   votes as well, so it wants its share and maybe a bit more.

   Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     150 is a huge #. I see this as a way for Gulen to subvert the AKP.

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Emre Dogru &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: Sun, 6 Mar 2011 12:50:53 -0600 (CST)
     To: &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;; Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: G3/S3* - Turkey - Two more journalists jailed over coup
     plot
     I really don't know and I don't think this can be found out accurately.
     We can know this at ministerial level at best. President Gul and FM
     Davutoglu are close to Gulen, for example.

     Kamran Bokhari wrote:

       How many Gulenites in the current parliament?

       Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Emre Dogru &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
       Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
       Date: Sun, 6 Mar 2011 12:42:30 -0600 (CST)
       To: &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;; Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
       ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
       Subject: Re: G3/S3* - Turkey - Two more journalists jailed over coup
       plot
       I think it's not AKP, but Gulen movement that takes this step.

       AKP came under criticism from the opposition and from the US, when
       generals and some other journalists were arrested two weeks ago. Thus,
       it doesn't make sense for AKP to arrest two more journalists (who most
       people believe unrelated to any of plots against AKP) and create more
       controversy ahead of elections. Erdogan is a pragmatic guy, he would
       not want more pressure before elections that would increase public
       fear against AKP. So, Gulen movement puts pressure on AKP by making
       these arrests. The question is why. I discussed this with our Turkish
       friend who came to Austin recently. He says Gulenists want 150 MPs
       from AKP if Erdogan wants less pressure. It's basically a
       post-election bargaining.
       friedman@att.blackberry.net wrote:

         Explain why akp would take this step. It seems to energize oppostion
         rather than strengthen akp. What is their thinking?

         Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: Emre Dogru &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
         Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
         Date: Sun, 6 Mar 2011 11:38:16 -0600 (CST)
         To: &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
         ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
         Subject: Re: G3/S3* - Turkey - Two more journalists jailed over coup
         plot
         There is a point here that is related to the discussion that Rodger,
         Kamran, Reva and I had while I was writing the PKK piece last week.
         They argued that PKK ending ceasefire could create an opening for
         opposition to use regional unrest as cover to topple the AKP. I said
         this was unlikely.
         Arrests of these two journalists made a huge impact in Turkey. They
         are accused of being linked to Ergenekon. Turkish political agenda
         is currently overwhelmed by these arrests since no one believes that
         they are part of such plan. I can say that so far I have not seen
         the Turkish media being so outspoken about the fear that AKP
         creates, the auto-censure that they have to apply and how they fear
         being arrested because of their opposition against AKP/Gulen
         movement. Some journalists marched on Saturday to protest the
         arrests, all ministers (including Erdogan) had to make some mild
         statements to distance AKP from arrests, which nobody bought.
         But the point here is that even at such a period when AKP is seen as
         most autocratic government and there is huge criticism against it,
         neither there were mass protests on the streets, nor opposition
         tried to exploit it. If there is an opportunity to use regional
         unrest as cover to show how undemocratic AKP is, this is it. But it
         did not take place yet. I think this proves my point.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: "Nate Hughes" &lt;hughes@stratfor.com&gt;
         To: "alerts" &lt;alerts@stratfor.com&gt;
         Sent: Sunday, March 6, 2011 4:53:02 PM
         Subject: G3/S3* - Turkey - Two more journalists jailed over coup
         plot

         Turkey jails two more journalists over coup plot
         http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/06/us-turkey-plot-idUSTRE7251G920110306

         9:09am EST
         By Ibon Villelabeitia
         ANKARA (Reuters) - A court on Sunday charged two more prominent
         journalists with links to an alleged plot to topple the Turkish
         government in a case that has raised worries of media freedom in
         Turkey.
         Ahmet Sik and Nedim Sener, who have written investigative books
         about Turkey's clandestine "deep state" activities, were detained on
         Thursday with six other journalists after police raided their homes
         at dawn. They were jailed pending trial.
         Another prominent journalist, Soner Yalcin, who runs a news website
         critical of the government, was charged last month as part of the
         same case, which has turned the political heat on the government
         before elections in June.
         The arrests of journalists in Turkey, a country which has applied to
         join the European Union, has also drawn expressions of concern from
         the United States, the EU and Human Rights Watch about Ankara's
         commitment to democratic principles and free media.
         Human Right Watch said on Saturday such developments had a "chilling
         effect" on free speech and urged Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's
         government to respect press freedom.
         Authorities say the arrests are part of an investigation into an
         alleged plot by a murky ultra-nationalist group known as Ergenekon
         to overthrow Erdogan's AK Party government.
         But critics say the case is being used to silence media critical of
         the AK government, which has a huge majority in parliament and
         controls levers of state power.
         Sik is already on trial over a book he co-wrote about the Ergenekon
         group. He had also written stories in a now-defunct magazine about
         diaries by a formal navy commander outlining the existence of an
         alleged coup plan against Erdogan's government.
         Sener has written books about the investigation into the killing of
         Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink in 2007, in which members of
         Turkey's clandestine state apparatus have long been suspected of
         having a role.
         The government is expected to easily win a third consecutive term in
         parliamentary elections in June.
         Erdogan has said the arrests have nothing to do with the government
         but the case threatens to become an election issue.
         Thousands of people, many of them journalists, marched in Ankara and
         Istanbul on Friday in response to the detentions and chanted
         anti-government slogans.
         Public opinion was behind the government after the first Ergenekon
         arrests back in 2007, particularly of retired military and police
         officers, as few Turks want a return to the coups that blighted the
         country in the late 20th century.
         But skepticism set in as the case broadened and police detained
         academics, journalists, civil society workers, and in one case, a
         transsexual singer. Hundreds have been taken in and many suspects
         have been held for more than two years.
         The trials reflect a lingering mistrust between the traditionally
         secular establishment and a ruling party that critics say retains
         Islamist leanings.
         The AK Party, which swept establishment parties from power in 2002,
         is regarded by investors as the most market-friendly party due to
         Turkey's economic success over the past decade.
         Critics accuse Erdogan of having an authoritarian streak and say AK
         has lost its reformist spirit after eight years in power.
         --
         Nathan Hughes
         Director
         Military Analysis
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com

         --
         --
         Emre Dogru
         STRATFOR  
         Cell: +90.532.465.7514
         Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
         emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
         www.stratfor.com

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-03-06 19:57:56</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-07 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1127361_re-g3-s3-turkey-two-more-journalists-jailed-over-coup-plot-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1128807</id>
    <title>Update - Re: G3/S3* - Turkey - Two more journalists jailed over coup
	plot
</title>
    <description>   Head of police intelligence in Istanbul, Ali Fuat Yilmazer, was sacked
   yesterday. He was very close to Erdogan. Yilmazer used to manage all
   arrests of journalists, academicians and soldiers in various cases such as
   Ergenekon, Sledgehammer etc. that AKP uses to limit its rivals' moves.
   However, as we discussed before, recent arrests increased fear against
   AKP's authoritarianism because everybody knows last arrests have nothing
   to do with those plot cases.

   In response to your question below on Sunday (why AKP allows these arrests
   if they energize opposition), I argued that it's not AKP, but Gulen
   movement (through police intelligence) that exceeded its limits by
   arresting more journalists in order to put pressure on Erdogan and get
   more MPs in the next parliament. Police and police intelligence in
   particular is owned by Gulen movement. Sacking of head of Istanbul police
   intelligence Yilmazer by PM Erdogan thus proves my theory. This move means
   Erdogan strikes back to Gulen ahead of elections and says he will not get
   under their pressure. Both sides tested each other. Now room is open for
   negotiation.

   Emre Dogru wrote:

     I think it's not AKP, but Gulen movement that takes this step.

     AKP came under criticism from the opposition and from the US, when
     generals and some other journalists were arrested two weeks ago. Thus,
     it doesn't make sense for AKP to arrest two more journalists (who most
     people believe unrelated to any of plots against AKP) and create more
     controversy ahead of elections. Erdogan is a pragmatic guy, he would not
     want more pressure before elections that would increase public fear
     against AKP. So, Gulen movement puts pressure on AKP by making these
     arrests. The question is why. I discussed this with our Turkish friend
     who came to Austin recently. He says Gulenists want 150 MPs from AKP if
     Erdogan wants less pressure. It's basically a post-election bargaining.
     friedman@att.blackberry.net wrote:

       Explain why akp would take this step. It seems to energize oppostion
       rather than strengthen akp. What is their thinking?

       Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Emre Dogru &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
       Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
       Date: Sun, 6 Mar 2011 11:38:16 -0600 (CST)
       To: &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
       ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
       Subject: Re: G3/S3* - Turkey - Two more journalists jailed over coup
       plot
       There is a point here that is related to the discussion that Rodger,
       Kamran, Reva and I had while I was writing the PKK piece last week.
       They argued that PKK ending ceasefire could create an opening for
       opposition to use regional unrest as cover to topple the AKP. I said
       this was unlikely.
       Arrests of these two journalists made a huge impact in Turkey. They
       are accused of being linked to Ergenekon. Turkish political agenda is
       currently overwhelmed by these arrests since no one believes that they
       are part of such plan. I can say that so far I have not seen the
       Turkish media being so outspoken about the fear that AKP creates, the
       auto-censure that they have to apply and how they fear being arrested
       because of their opposition against AKP/Gulen movement. Some
       journalists marched on Saturday to protest the arrests, all ministers
       (including Erdogan) had to make some mild statements to distance AKP
       from arrests, which nobody bought.
       But the point here is that even at such a period when AKP is seen as
       most autocratic government and there is huge criticism against it,
       neither there were mass protests on the streets, nor opposition tried
       to exploit it. If there is an opportunity to use regional unrest as
       cover to show how undemocratic AKP is, this is it. But it did not take
       place yet. I think this proves my point.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: "Nate Hughes" &lt;hughes@stratfor.com&gt;
       To: "alerts" &lt;alerts@stratfor.com&gt;
       Sent: Sunday, March 6, 2011 4:53:02 PM
       Subject: G3/S3* - Turkey - Two more journalists jailed over coup plot

       Turkey jails two more journalists over coup plot
       http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/06/us-turkey-plot-idUSTRE7251G920110306

       9:09am EST
       By Ibon Villelabeitia
       ANKARA (Reuters) - A court on Sunday charged two more prominent
       journalists with links to an alleged plot to topple the Turkish
       government in a case that has raised worries of media freedom in
       Turkey.
       Ahmet Sik and Nedim Sener, who have written investigative books about
       Turkey's clandestine "deep state" activities, were detained on
       Thursday with six other journalists after police raided their homes at
       dawn. They were jailed pending trial.
       Another prominent journalist, Soner Yalcin, who runs a news website
       critical of the government, was charged last month as part of the same
       case, which has turned the political heat on the government before
       elections in June.
       The arrests of journalists in Turkey, a country which has applied to
       join the European Union, has also drawn expressions of concern from
       the United States, the EU and Human Rights Watch about Ankara's
       commitment to democratic principles and free media.
       Human Right Watch said on Saturday such developments had a "chilling
       effect" on free speech and urged Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's
       government to respect press freedom.
       Authorities say the arrests are part of an investigation into an
       alleged plot by a murky ultra-nationalist group known as Ergenekon to
       overthrow Erdogan's AK Party government.
       But critics say the case is being used to silence media critical of
       the AK government, which has a huge majority in parliament and
       controls levers of state power.
       Sik is already on trial over a book he co-wrote about the Ergenekon
       group. He had also written stories in a now-defunct magazine about
       diaries by a formal navy commander outlining the existence of an
       alleged coup plan against Erdogan's government.
       Sener has written books about the investigation into the killing of
       Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink in 2007, in which members of
       Turkey's clandestine state apparatus have long been suspected of
       having a role.
       The government is expected to easily win a third consecutive term in
       parliamentary elections in June.
       Erdogan has said the arrests have nothing to do with the government
       but the case threatens to become an election issue.
       Thousands of people, many of them journalists, marched in Ankara and
       Istanbul on Friday in response to the detentions and chanted
       anti-government slogans.
       Public opinion was behind the government after the first Ergenekon
       arrests back in 2007, particularly of retired military and police
       officers, as few Turks want a return to the coups that blighted the
       country in the late 20th century.
       But skepticism set in as the case broadened and police detained
       academics, journalists, civil society workers, and in one case, a
       transsexual singer. Hundreds have been taken in and many suspects have
       been held for more than two years.
       The trials reflect a lingering mistrust between the traditionally
       secular establishment and a ruling party that critics say retains
       Islamist leanings.
       The AK Party, which swept establishment parties from power in 2002, is
       regarded by investors as the most market-friendly party due to
       Turkey's economic success over the past decade.
       Critics accuse Erdogan of having an authoritarian streak and say AK
       has lost its reformist spirit after eight years in power.
       --
       Nathan Hughes
       Director
       Military Analysis
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com

       --
       --
       Emre Dogru
       STRATFOR  
       Cell: +90.532.465.7514
       Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
       emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
       www.stratfor.com

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-03-11 11:13:08</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-07 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1128807_update-re-g3-s3-turkey-two-more-journalists-jailed-over-coup.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1129067</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - IRAN/US: More on pro-democracy group funding
</title>
    <description>   PUBLICATION: background/analysis
   SOURCE: CANVAS leader SR 501
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY :  A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY:  A
   DISTRIBUTION:  Secure
   SOURCE HANDLER: Marko
   (This is now Marko's translation):

   Here are a few more details about this whole thing... From the meetings I
   had with this administration and according to my fellow pro-democracy
   contacts, I can tell you that this Administration is acting like an
   elephant in a china store. From one side you have these cuts of
   pro-democracy programs so as to protect from Tehran's assertions that DC
   is funding revolution, but from the other side you have the tactic
   negotiations-sanctions-engagement will bring the situation exactly where
   Cheney wanted it: war.

   I mean imagine the scenario where negotiations failed, deadlines have
   passed and now is time to threaten war. Iran knows that with Russians
   behind their back and thousands of kilometers of border that cannot be
   controlled, Iran has nothing to fear from US. Sanctions will obviously
   follow but they will be A) inefficient, B) strengthen the regime (if you
   do a comparative analysis of how UN sanctions against Serbia strengthened
   Slobo's and Arkan's regime by giving them monopoly over gasoline and
   foreign trade you will see that Tehran CANNOT WAIT for sanctions [MP:
   Arkan is petty thief, war criminal turned OC boss who ran Milosevic's
   paramilitaries and ran the gasoline black market during sanctions, making
   himself and Slobo BILLIONS)). At the end, Israel loses its nerve and
   attacks.

   Which is exactly how Cheney would have wanted! Hilarious isn't it...

   By the way, Republicans are already all over this. Find McCaine's
   performance on Fox over the weekend when the healthcare bill passed where
   on the question of Iran he openly answers that Democrats have left the
   people of Iran to suffer and that the Republicans will ask for a new law
   to help the Iranian opposition...
</description>
    <date>2010-01-05 18:19:08</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-06-18 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1129067_insight-iran-us-more-on-pro-democracy-group-funding-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1130782</id>
    <title>Re: G3/B3 - GREECE/EU/ECON - IMF to set Greek terms in potential
	challenge	to Europe
</title>
    <description>   all he's saying is that the IMF isnt going to do anything special for
   greece, just because its a member of this currency bloc.  if theres an IMF
   program, the IMF is going to run it.  they're not going to get into a
   power sharing situation with the EU, or provide funds without the
   attendant control over the austerity program.  thats it.

   On 3/30/10 07:49, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     no, he's saying if Greece asks, there will be one

     but this idea of the IMF deciding on its own how to carry it through...
     this gets back to my questions over the past few weeks. Strauss-Kahn is
     talking almost as if the IMF can act as an autonomous entity, rather
     than as a reflection of the votes allotted to member states according to
     their quotas

     or perhaps i'm just reading it wrong, and all Strauss-Kahn is saying is
     that it will certainly not be the Greeks determining the rates they
     receive on any IMF loan. (but if this is the case, i don't see why the
     Bloomberg reporter would write that this is "reflecting tensions with
     European leaders over a possible rescue.")

     Emre Dogru wrote:

       So, Kahn is making clear that this will be indeed an IMF rescue plan
       and IMF will put the rules.

       Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

         http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&amp;sid=aMZ5CNhPtaPo

         IMF to Set Greek Aid Terms in Potential Challenge to Europe
         Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A

         By Agnes Lovasz

         March 30 (Bloomberg) -- The International Monetary Fund would
         dictate terms of assistance it provides Greece, Managing Director
         Dominique Strauss-Kahn said, reflecting tensions with European
         leaders over a possible rescue.

         Leaders of the 16-nation euro region last week endorsed a
         combination of IMF and bilateral loans at market interest rates
         should Greece run out of fund-raising options, while saying they
         would maintain control over the process.

         Any Greek package would "be an IMF program decided by the IMF as it
         happens with each and every country," Strauss-Kahn said in an
         interview on a flight to Bucharest from Warsaw today. "The IMF will
         define the conditionality, as we do with any country."

         Strauss-Kahn's comments signaled a potential turf battle with
         European leaders. Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who
         chairs the panel of euro-area finance ministers, said last week that
         he "would have preferred" a "purely European" plan. European Central
         Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, who initially opposed an IMF
         role, said European governments will remain in control of the terms.

         By accepting an IMF role, the euro-area leaders bowed to German
         Chancellor Angela Merkel's insistence that up to half of any loans
         for Greece come from the Washington-based lender of last resort.

         Bond Sale

         Greece, battling the European Union's highest budget deficit, sold 5
         billion euros ($6.7 billion) of a new seven-year bond yesterday,
         testing investors' confidence in the EU aid pledge. The notes fell
         in the first trading day, with the yield premium widening about 5
         basis points to 339 basis points over benchmark German debt. The
         yield rose to 6.078 percent from an issue yield of 6.001 percent.

         The sale took care of all of Greece's funding needs for April,
         Petros Christodoulou, head of the nation's debt agency, said
         yesterday.

         Strauss-Kahn said the IMF won't get involved until Greece asks it
         for assistance.

         "If, and it's a big if, Greece asks for support, we will provide
         support for Greece as one of our members, as we do with any other
         member," he said in the interview.

         He said in Warsaw yesterday Greece might be able to solve its
         financing problems alone in the markets, and "hopefully" won't need
         the IMF. The IMF has "no role" in a possible rescue for Greece until
         the country requests a loan program from the Washington-based fund.

         In Greece's Hands

         "There's no step" to be taken by the IMF at the moment, Strauss-Kahn
         said in the interview. "Everything is in the hands of the Greeks,
         not in our hand. We never go to a country and say you need a
         program, it's always the other way around. Until a country comes to
         us, we have no role, and it's the same for Greece."

         He declined to speculate on how much money Greece may be able to
         borrow. It will be a multiple of the country's IMF quota, which will
         depend on the fund's assessment of the country's needs, he said.

         The Greek government is counting on wage cuts and tax increases to
         shave its budget deficit to 8.7 percent of gross domestic product
         this year from 12.7 percent in 2009, the highest in the euro's
         11-year history.

         "It seems to be the right thing to do," Strauss-Kahn said, adding
         that he currently wasn't in a position to predict if any additional
         measures will be needed.

         To contact the reporter on this story: Agnes Lovasz in London at
         alovasz@bloomberg.net
         Last Updated: March 30, 2010 04:34 EDT

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-03-30 14:54:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2001-03-13 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1130782_re-g3-b3-greece-eu-econ-imf-to-set-greek-terms-in-potential.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kevin.stech@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bayless.parsley@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1132153</id>
    <title>Re: Thoughts on Der Spiegel?
</title>
    <description>   Other media reports that the new intelligence itself came from BND (other
   than just the laptop which the article mentions).  I bet it was leaked by
   them or IAEA in Vienna.

   Marko Papic wrote:

     To answer Reva's question, this is certainly something that could be
     assumed. Mossad and German intelligence have grown close over the years,
     especially following the fiasco in Munich. On the other hand, Der
     Spiegel usually does very good in depth analyses and investigative work.
     Best at that in Germany. In that way, it has a very good tradition of
     investigative journalism similar to the Guardian (although it is a
     weekly, not a daily like the Guardian).

     Kamran Bokhari wrote:

 If you are going by what defectors tell you then it is also reasonable to
 assume that the Iranians have moved things around since the defections.

 -----Original Message-----
 From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
 On Behalf Of Fred Burton
 Sent: January-25-10 1:43 PM
 To: Analyst List
 Subject: Re: Thoughts on Der Spiegel?

 Western experts believe that this center developed into a
 sub-organization of the Defense Ministry known as the FEDAT, an acronym
 for the "Department for Expanded High-Technology Applications" -- the
 secret heart of Iran's nuclear weapons program. The head of that
 organization is Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, 48, an officer in the Revolutionary
 Guard and a professor at Tehran's Imam Hossein University.

 ** This kind of granularity is critical.


 Reva Bhalla wrote:
  

 Any thoughts on Der Spiegel as an outlet for Mossad or any other
 intelligence agencies?  Have we seen examples of this in the past?  They
 have some insane detail here (read the second half) where they claim
 they've got all this access to a classified doc on Iran's nuclear
 weapons program



           01/25/2010

 


   The Secret Nuclear Dossier


     Intelligence from Tehran Elevates Concern in the West

 By Dieter Bednarz, Erich Follath and Holger Stark

 *The West has long been suspicous of Iran's nuclear program. SPIEGEL has
 obtained new documents on secret tests and leadership structures that
 call into question Tehran's claims to be exclusively interested in the
 peaceful use of the technology.*

 It was probably the last attempt to defuse the nuclear dispute with
 Tehran without having to turn to dramatic new sanctions or military
 action. The plan, devised at the White House in October, had Russian and
 Chinese support and came with the seal of approval of the US president.
 It was clearly a Barack Obama operation.


 Under the plan, Iran would send a large share of its low enriched
 uranium abroad, all at once, for a period of one year, receiving
 internationally monitored quantities of nuclear fuel elements in return.
 It was a deal that provided benefits for all sides. The Iranians would
 have enough material for what they claim is their civilian nuclear
 program, as well as for scientific experiments, and the world could be
 assured that Tehran would not be left with enough fissile material for
 its secret domestic uranium enrichment program -- and for what the West
 assumes is the building of a nuclear bomb.


         PHOTO GALLERY

     * &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;
     * &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;
     * &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;


 3  Photos
 *Photo Gallery:* Iran's Nuclear Program
 &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;


 Tehran's leaders initially agreed to the proposal "in principle." But
 for weeks they put off the international community with vague allusions
 to a "final response," and when that response finally materialized, it
 came in the form of a "counter-proposal." Under this proposal, Tehran
 insisted that the exchange could not take place all at once, but only in
 stages, and that the material would not be sent abroad. Instead, Tehran
 wanted the exchange to take place in Iran.

 Once again, the Iranian leadership has rebuffed the West with phony
 promises of its willingness to compromise. The government in Tehran
 officially rejected the nuclear exchange plan last Tuesday. To make
 matters worse, after the West's discovery of a secret uranium enrichment
 plant near Qom, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad defiantly announced that
 he would never give in, and in fact would build 10 more enrichment
 plants instead.

 *Highly Volatile Material*

 But officials in Washington and European capitals are currently not as
 concerned about these cocky, unrealistic announcements as they are about
 intelligence reports based on sources within Iran and information from
 high-ranking defectors. The new information, say American experts, will
 likely prompt the US government to reassess the risks coming from the
 mullah-controlled country in the coming days and raise the alarm level
 from yellow to red. Skeptics who in the past, sometimes justifiably so,
 treated alarmist reports as Israeli propaganda, are also extremely
 worried. They include the experts from the United Nations International
 Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whose goal is prevent the spread of nuclear
 weapons.

 After an extensive internal investigation, IAEA officials concluded that
 a computer obtained from Iran years ago contains highly volatile
 material. The laptop reached the Americans through Germany's foreign
 intelligence agency, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), and was then
 passed on to the IAEA in Vienna.

 Reports by Ali Reza Asgari, Iran's former deputy defense minister who
 managed to defect to the United States, where he was given a new
 identity, proved to be just as informative. Nuclear scientist Shahram
 Amiri, who "disappeared" during a pilgrimage to Mecca in June 2009, is
 also believed to have particularly valuable information. The Iranian
 authorities accused Saudi Arabia and the United States of kidnapping the
 expert, but it is more likely that he defected.

 Iran's government has come under pressure as a result of the new
 charges. They center on the question of who exactly is responsible for
 the country's nuclear program -- and what this says about its true
 nature. The government has consistently told the IAEA that the only
 agency involved in uranium enrichment is the National Energy Council,
 and that its work was exclusively dedicated to the peaceful use of the
 technology.

 But if the claims are true that have been made in an intelligence
 dossier currently under review in diplomatic circles in Washington,
 Vienna, Tel Aviv and Berlin, portions of which SPIEGEL has obtained,
 this is a half-truth at best.

 According to the classified document, there is a secret military branch
 of Iran's nuclear research program that answers to the Defense Ministry
 and has clandestine structures. The officials who have read the dossier
 conclude that the government in Tehran is serious about developing a
 bomb, and that its plans are well advanced. There are two names that
 appear again and again in the documents, particularly in connection with
 the secret weapons program: Kamran Daneshjoo and Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.

 *Secret Heart of Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program*

 Daneshjoo, 52, Iran's new minister of science, research and technology,
 is also responsible for the country's nuclear energy agency, and he is
 seen as a close ally of Ahmadinejad. Opposition leaders say he is a
 hardliner who was partly responsible for the apparently rigged
 presidential election in June. Daneshjoo's biography includes only
 marginal references to his possible nuclear expertise. In describing
 himself, the man with the steely-gray beard writes that he studied
 engineering in the British city of Manchester, and then spent several
 years working at a Tehran "Center for Aviation Technology." Western
 experts believe that this center developed into a sub-organization of
 the Defense Ministry known as the FEDAT, an acronym for the "Department
 for Expanded High-Technology Applications" -- the secret heart of Iran's
 nuclear weapons program. The head of that organization is Mohsen
 Fakhrizadeh, 48, an officer in the Revolutionary Guard and a professor
 at Tehran's Imam Hossein University.

 Western intelligence agencies believe that although the nuclear energy
 agency and the FEDAT compete in some areas, they have agreed to a
 division of labor on the central issue of nuclear weapons research, with
 the nuclear agency primarily supervising uranium enrichment while the
 FEDAT is involved in the construction of a nuclear warhead to be used in
 Iran's Shahab missiles. Experts believe that Iran's scientists could
 produce a primitive, truck-sized version of the bomb this year, but that
 it would have to be compressed to a size that would fit into a nuclear
 warhead to yield the strategic threat potential that has Israel and the
 West so alarmed -- and that they could reach that stage by sometime
 between 2012 and 2014.

 The Iranians are believed to have conducted non-nuclear tests of a
 detonating mechanism for a nuclear bomb more than six years ago. The
 challenge in the technology is to uniformly ignite the conventional
 explosives surrounding the uranium core -- which is needed to produce
 the desired chain reaction. It is believed that the test series was
 conducted with a warhead encased in aluminum. In other words, everything
 but the core was "real." According to the reports, the Tehran engineers
 used thin fibers and a measuring circuit board in place of the fissile
 material. This enabled them to measure the shock waves and photograph
 flashes that simulate the detonation of a nuclear bomb with some degree
 of accuracy. The results were apparently so encouraging that the Iranian
 government has since classified the technology as "feasible."

 SPIEGEL obtained access to a FEDAT organizational chart and a list of
 the names of scientists working for the agency. The Vienna-based IAEA
 also has these documents, but the Iranian president claims that they are
 forged and are being used to discredit his country. After reporting two
 years ago that the Iranians had frozen their nuclear weapons research in
 2003, the CIA and other intelligence agencies will probably paint a
 significantly more sobering scenario just as the UN Security Council is
 considering tougher sanctions against Iran.

 *Mulling Sanctions*

 When France assumes the Council's rotating chairmanship in February,
 Washington could push for a showdown. While Moscow is not ruling out
 additional punitive measures, China, which has negotiated billions in
 energy deals with Iran, is more likely to block such measures.

 China could, however, approve "smart" sanctions, such as travel
 restrictions for senior members of the Revolutionary Guard and nuclear
 scientists. Fakhrizadeh is already on a list of officials subject to
 such restrictions, and Daneshjoo could well be added in the future.

 But the West would presumably be on its own when enforcing sanctions
 that would be truly harmful to Iran -- and to its own, profitable trade
 relations with Tehran. The most effective trade weapon would be a fuel
 embargo. Because of a lack of refinery capacity Iran, which has the
 world's second-largest oil reserves, imports almost half of the gasoline
 it uses. Sanctions would trigger a sharp rise in the price of gasoline,
 inevitably leading to social unrest. Experts are divided over whether it
 would be directed against the unpopular regime or if the country's
 leaders could once again inflame the Iranian people against the "evil
    

 West."
  

 This leaves the military option. Apart from the political consequences
 and the possibility of counter-attacks, bombing Iran's nuclear
 facilities would be extremely difficult. The nuclear experts have
 literally buried themselves and their facilities underground, in
 locations that would be virtually impossible to reach with conventional
 weapons.

 While even Israeli experts are skeptical over how much damage bombing
 the facilities could do to the nuclear program, the normally levelheaded
 US General David Petraeus sounded downright belligerent when asked
 whether the Iranian nuclear facilities could be attacked militarily.
 "Well, they certainly can be bombed," he said just two weeks ago in
 Washington.

 /Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan/

    

  

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Analyst Development Program
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-01-25 20:35:56</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-11 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1132153_re-thoughts-on-der-spiegel-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1133861</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] GOOGLE - Cohen &amp; Hosting of Terrorists
</title>
    <description>If you go, pls sell copies of my books. 

On 3/22/2011 9:18 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:
&gt; I am invited to this conference. Perhaps I should reconsider.
&gt;
&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;
&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt; From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
&gt; Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2011 09:07:36 
&gt; To: Matthew Powers&lt;matthew.powers@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; Cc: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; Subject: Re: [alpha] GOOGLE - Cohen &amp; Hosting of Terrorists
&gt;
&gt; The conference will feature "formers" from urban African American gangs,
&gt; rural white power gangs, neo Nazis gangs, Latin American gangs, Asian
&gt; gangs, and former nationalist extremists from Ireland, Europe, and Asia,
&gt; as well as Islamist extremists from the Middle East, North Africa, and
&gt; Southeast Asia.
&gt;
&gt; ** Star Wars bar?   GOOGLE has become the new Bob Dylan, Sam Cooke and
&gt; The Beatles trying to make social change.
&gt;
&gt; Why can't they worry about making better widgets and Gmail?
&gt;
&gt; I'm calling the GOOGLE founders later today.  What will this do to my
&gt; GOOGLE stock?
&gt;
&gt; Fred's motto # 2 - Money does not buy sanity.
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; On 3/22/2011 8:57 AM, Matthew Powers wrote:
&gt;&gt; http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/21/cfr_and_google_team_up_to_battle_violent_extremism
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt; &gt;From a senior GOOGLE exec:
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; By the way - Jared (COHEN) heeded the advice not to go to Turkey or UAE
&gt;&gt;&gt; for those
&gt;&gt;&gt; meetings. Other Googlers are hosting those meetings.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; You should see some
&gt;&gt;&gt; stories about us hosting a "formers" event in June in Dublin.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; This is a
&gt;&gt;&gt; meeting of 100 former terrorists, gang members, and other basic
&gt;&gt;&gt; troublemakers.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; (Fred's note -- Can we find information on the Dublin event?  May be a
&gt;&gt;&gt; good place for me to do a book signing!  WTF is wrong with these rich
&gt;&gt;&gt; arseholes?  Money does not buy sanity.)
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; --
&gt;&gt; Matthew Powers
&gt;&gt; STRATFOR Senior Researcher
&gt;&gt; Matthew.Powers@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-03-22 15:31:34</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-14 22:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1133861_re-alpha-google-cohen-and-hosting-of-terrorists-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1134490</id>
    <title>RE: DISCUSSION - Risking the wrath of George and playing the
	devil'sadvocate on Iran-Israel-US 
</title>
    <description>I'm with Reva.  

BB will attack Iran when he looses his intel window.  

&gt;From my lips to your ears.

Plus, he doesn't trust Obama.  Do you?   

-----Original Message-----
From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
On Behalf Of Reva Bhalla
Sent: Tuesday, March 23, 2010 5:11 PM
To: Analyst List
Subject: DISCUSSION - Risking the wrath of George and playing the
devil'sadvocate on Iran-Israel-US 

I'm going to play the devil's advocate on the Iran-Israel-US issue.  
George is obviously the authority on Israel, but we could all benefit from
some competitive analysis on an issue of this magnitude.

The situation:  US-Israeli relations are under stress following an Israeli
decision to flare up the settlement issue. Meanwhile, the US has backed off
of "crippling" sanctions against Iran, is reiterating its interest in
reaching out diplomatically to Iran and is publicly standing up to Israel on
the settlement/Palestinian issue.

Iran, meanwhile, is sitting cool. They rejected Obama's Nowruz message and
are quite content with the way things are playing out between Israel and US.
In other words, we don't see Iran under pressure to respond to the US's
diplomatic opening and since the June election, the Iranian regime has
reasserted its authority over the state.

a)  Domestic Israeli politics certainly plays into the US-Israel crisis.
Bibi is trying to manage a very polarized Cabinet, with guys like Lieberman
on one end and Barak on the other.  The centrist figures like Livni are
sitting in the opposition. REMEMBER, however, that the Israeli elections
were in Feb. 2009.  Bibi has been managing this Cabinet for a while.  It's
not like this is something new, although internal political tensions can and
do arise. Last time this happened we saw the Gaza offensive.

b)  If you look at Israel's strategic imperatives, the threat of a nuclear
Iran outweighs the threat of the Palestinians. The Palestinians, in their
current form, are fractured politically, economically, militarily and
geographically. This allows Israel to  
argue that it has no Palestinian negotiating partner to deal with.   
That suits Israel just fine. THe more divided the Palestinians, the better.
As we've written in our own analysis, the Palestinian threat in its current
form (and without a hostile Egypt) is a nuisance, not a strategic threat.
As Israel has flared up the settlements issue, we've seen Hamas and Fatah
actually working toward reconciliation, which works AGAINST the Israeli
strategic interest.

c)  The potential for a nuclear Iran poses a strategic threat to Iran.
Israel is a tiny place with a tiny population that doesn't want to risk
getting wiped off the map.


George argued in today's meeting that the Israeli decision to flare up the
settlements issue when VP Biden visited was purely political and
non-strategic. As he said, the right hand did not know what the left hand
was doing, and Bibi did not anticipate that the US would respond so
strongly. He was just attending to a domestic political issue to hold his
coalition together.


I disagree.

Keep in mind the strategic imperatives above. You cannot ignore the fact
that this settlements spat between the US and Israel comes right as the US
has backed off crippling sanctions against Iran.  Go back 1 month. Israel
was making clear that deadline after deadline had passed and that the
diplomatic chapter had closed. Bibi also said he wanted crippling sanctions
by mid-Feb while reiterating that the military option remained on the table.
For a while, the US echoed the ISraeli tone on the Iran issue. Then, we saw
a shift.  As the US tried to deal with Russia and China, as new intel
assessments were likely coming in, as Obama examined closely what would be
at stake the day after such a strike, etc., the US backed off the hardline
approach.  Instead, the US circulated a draft of sanctions that were most
clearly NOT crippling, by removing the energy sanctions from the draft.

Israel at that point realized it's running short of options. The US was
saying it's not going to get pushed around on the Iran issue and that it
could afford to buy time.  This is an issue, i would argue, that would
enflame members of Bibi's Cabinet. If Iran is designated as the number one
foreign policy threat, and Bibi, who prides himself as someone who knows how
to deal with the Americans, can't get the US to deliver on Iran, then that
would constitute a political crisis.

It is at this point that we see Israel flare up another issue --
settlements.  This is an issue that would pacify the right-wingers in Bibi's
Cabinet.  I do not believe this sprung up out of nowhere. and I don't see
how this can be viewed in isolation of the shift we saw this past quarter in
how the US has decided to deal with Iran.  No, everything doesn't have to be
interlinked and sometimes politics really is politics. A big element of this
is Israeli domestic politics, but I don't think that's all there is to it
given the factors above.

Finally, we've discussed to some extent what would Israel do if it realizes
it's run into a dead-end on Iran.  It could try to work out a Plan B with
the US.  As George mentioned, Plan B could involve keeping US troops in
Iraq.

Two problems I have with that:  a) that goes against US imperatives -- why
would we want to remain bogged down in Iraq?  we can still use regional
allies like Turkey and Saudi Arabia to keep a balance. IT's not llike Iran
is able to completely dominate the Iraqi state. That needs to be put into
perspective

b) how does keeping US troops in Iraq contain an Iranian nuclear threat?  If
you look at Iran's core imperatives, a long-term US presence in Iraq
(especially as the US is in Afghanistan) increases  
Iranian insecurity, thus increasing the need for defense, ie. a nuke.   
If you look at the military reality of the situation, the US can't easily
neutralize the Iranian nuclear program through military action.  
So, again, what does keeping US troops in IRaq do for the nuclear threat?

Also note that the Israelis themselves have been coupling statements on the
Iranian threat with what's happening with the crisis over settlements.
Netanyahu did this today, and Ashkenazi did this today when he said anyone
who thinks an opposition force in Iran is sufficient to contain the nuclear
threat is smoking crack. I'm paraphrasing, but that is exactly the message
the US is delivering to Israel in trying to stave off action against Iran --
that a military strike will bring about all kinds of mess, and that it would
knock the wind out of a legitimate opposition force. Israel's message is
'yeah, we don't buy that.'

I'm not tying down to old assumptions, but I'm seeing some real flaws in the
new assumptions that are being introduced as we go through this quarterly
process. Let's work this out.
</description>
    <date>2010-03-23 23:29:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-27 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1134490_re-discussion-risking-the-wrath-of-george-and-playing-the.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1136251</id>
    <title>RE: Plane Crash
</title>
    <description>   FWIW - Comrade J (the highest ranking Soviet defector in history)
   confirmed his services assassination of Pres. Zia in Pakistan.   

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Matthew Gertken
   Sent: Saturday, April 10, 2010 11:56 AM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: Plane Crash
   well it is rather suspicious

   Lauren Goodrich wrote:

     The conspiracy theorists will hate that the Russians get to lead this
     investigation.

     Marko Papic wrote:

       Note that this all comes from the Russian side... We won't know until
       we find the Black Box and I have a feeling that Russians are going to
       stall on giving it to the Poles. This could be a start of another
       diplomatic incident. Just a heads up on that.

       OR, Putin could continue his charm offensive, especially if the
       apparently dumb arrogant Polish pilot really is at fault (disobeying
       traffic control order?! So freaking Polish... "A Russian is not going
       to tell Polish presidential plane what to do!" sort of a thing), then
       it gives Putin an opportunity to act magnanimously again.

       Either way, Russia WINS big time. Which is becoming quite a trend.

       ----- Original Message -----
       From: "Michael Wilson" &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
       To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
       Sent: Saturday, April 10, 2010 11:49:18 AM GMT -06:00 US/Canada
       Central
       Subject: Re: Plane Crash

       A few articles

       On 4/10/2010 11:46 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

         Has there been further details on the final few minutes of the plane
         crash?  Pilot contact w/the tower?  

       Russia: Kaczynski's pilot ignored ground command
       10 Apr 2010 15:07:51 GMT
       Source: Reuters

       http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/LDE6390DM.htm

       MOSCOW, April 10 (Reuters) - The pilot of the plane which crashed on
       Saturday, killing Polish President Lech Kaczynski, ignored several
       orders not to land from Russian air traffic control, a Russian
       military official was quoted as saying.

       Kaczynski, his wife and at least 95 others were killed when the aged
       Tupolev Tu-154 they were travelling in crashed in a forest while
       trying to land near the Russian city of Smolensk.

       "At a distance of 2.5 kilometres (1.5 miles) the head of air traffic
       control ascertained that the crew had increased the speed of the
       descent," the first deputy chief of the Russian Air Force's general
       staff, Alexander Alyoshin, was quoted as saying by Interfax news
       agency.

       "The head of the air traffic control group gave a command to the crew
       to put the aircraft into the horizontal position and when the crew did
       not implement this order, several times gave orders to divert to an
       alternative airport," he said.

       "Despite this, the crew continued the descent. Unfortunately this
       ended in tragedy," he said. (Reporting by Dmitry Sergeyev, editing by
       Tim Pearce)

       http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/LDE639054.htm
        
       Pilot error may have caused Polish crash-local spokesman
       10 Apr 2010 09:38:33 GMT
        
       SMOLENSK, Russia, April 10 (Reuters) - Pilot error was a possible
       reason for the plane crash that killed Polish President Lech Kaczynski
       and central bank governor Slawomir Skrzypek on Saturday, a spokesman
       for the Smolensk local government said.
        
       "The pilot was advised to land in Minsk, but decided to land in
       Smolensk," said the spokesman, Andrei Yevseyenkov. The plane crashed
       in thick fog about 2 km (1.3 miles) from the airport in the western
       Russian region of Smolensk. (Reporting by Lidia Kelly, writing by
       Robin Paxton, editing by Tim Pearce

       Both "black boxes" found at Polish air crash site - Russian minister

       Both "black boxes" (flight data recorders) of Polish President Lech
       Kaczynski's Tu-154 aircraft, which crashed near Smolensk on 10 April,
       have been found at the site of the crash, Interfax news agency
       reported Emergencies Ministry Sergey Shoygu as saying on the same day.

       "The flight data recorders, both telemetry and speech, have been found
       at the scene of the disaster. The analysis of them, which should shed
       light on the causes of the disaster, has already begun," he was quoted
       as saying.

       "The trajectory of the aircraft's flight, which I have now gone over
       twice, suggests that the deviation from the runway was not only in
       terms of height, but also laterally at least 150 m," he was quoted as
       saying.

       According to Shoygu's information, the aircraft was completely
       destroyed and fragments of the plane are distributed over quite a
       large area, the report said.

       "The destruction, by all appearances, begun from the left wing, which
       has been found 500 m. from the remains of the fuselage," Shoygu said.

       Asked by Polish journalists whether the reason for the crash was the
       inadequate length of the runway, Shoygu replied that the Severnyy
       aerodrome could receive aircraft of any class.

       Source: Interfax news agency, Moscow, in Russian 1400 gmt 10 Apr 10

       BBC Mon Alert FS1 FsuPol EU1 EuroPol hb

       Polish leader's plane crash unlikely related to state of airfield -
       general

       Deputy Commander of the Russian Air Force for Air Defence Lt-Gen
       Sergey Razygrayev has said that he does not believe the crash of the
       Tu-154 aircraft carrying a Polish delegation headed by Polish
       President Lech Kaczynski on 10 April was related to the condition of
       the airfield, Interfax news agency reported that day. The plane had
       crashed when coming into land at Severnyy airfield near Smolensk.

       "The Severnyy aerodrome is first class and I don't think that this
       disaster is somehow connected with it [the aerodrome]," the general
       was reported as telling Ekho Moskvy radio on the same day.

       But he stressed that "information on this issue is quite scant, and it
       is still too early to draw any conclusion", the report said.

       Source: Interfax news agency, Moscow, in Russian 0828 gmt 10 Apr 10

       BBC Mon Alert FS1 FsuPol EU1 EuroPol hb

       http://en.rian.ru/world/20100410/158510776.html

        

       Polish president's body 'found' in crash wreckage - source

       The body of Polish President Lech Kaczynski may have been found in the
       wreckage of the plane that crashed earlier on Saturday in western
       Russia, a highly-placed police source told RIA Novosti.

       Speaking from the scene of the clean-up operation, the source said
       however that "additional tests, including DNA," would be needed to
       identify many of the bodies.

       All 97 people on board died when a plane carrying Kaczynski, his wife,
       and a delegation of senior officials crashed in thick fog while
       attempting to land at Smolensk airport.

       Kaczynski was on his way to a ceremony in nearby Katyn to commemorate
       the memory of some 20,000 Polish officers killed by Soviet secret
       police during World War Two.

        

     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     Stratfor
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-04-10 18:59:27</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1136251_re-plane-crash-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1138152</id>
    <title>Re: [OS] FINLAND - Finland May Double Atomic Power to Cut Russia
	Imports
</title>
    <description>   The Finns import 100 percent of the natural gas from Russia. They are also
   relatively flat, so while they do have a lot of water and rivers they
   usually don't run in a way that would be conducive to large hydropower
   dams. This means that they only get 18 percent of power from hydro.

   This is also one of the best examples of how say an anti-nuclear power NGO
   would serve Russian interests. Were Finland to build 3 more nuclear
   reactors, it would no longer be dependent on Russia for electricity.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Laura Jack" &lt;laura.jack@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "The OS List" &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2010 5:59:11 AM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: [OS] FINLAND - Finland May Double Atomic Power to Cut Russia
   Imports

   http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601095&amp;sid=ajnVybZbdA0M

   Finland May Double Atomic Power to Cut Russia Imports (Update1)
   Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A

   By Kati Pohjanpalo and Diana ben-Aaron

   April 15 (Bloomberg) -- Finland, the European Uniona**s biggest power
   consumer per capita, may double nuclear energy production in the next 10
   years to wean the Nordic nation off Russian electricity imports that
   reached a record high in 2009.

   Fortum Oyj, Finlanda**s largest utility, Teollisuuden Voima Oyj, and a
   group led by E.ON AG want permission to build three reactors in addition
   to the current four. The government plans to make a decision this month.

   a**Ita**s first and foremost to be able to replace Russian electricity
   imports,a** Finance Minister Jyrki Katainen said in an interview. a**We
   should not be dependent on them and there is no sense in paying Russia for
   electricity we could produce ourselves.a** He is chairman of the National
   Coalition Party, the smaller government coalition member, which supports
   granting permits to all applicants provided they meet all criteria.

   Finlanda**s reliance on imports, which come mainly from Russia and supply
   15 percent of all power, make the country vulnerable because of its
   energy-intensive industries such as papermaking and winters where
   temperatures in the north can remain below freezing for six months,
   supporters of the building program say. Opponents say nuclear energy is
   too dangerous and Finland should seek other options.

   a**Ita**s worrying that three-quarters of Finlanda**s imported energy
   comes from Russia, including 100 percent of natural gas,a** said Ilkka
   Kananen, head of the National Emergency Supply Agency. a**Electricity
   imports are a structural vulnerability and a risk to supply security.a**

   Russia cut gas deliveries to Ukraine three times in five years in a
   pricing dispute, the last row in January 2009, which lasted three weeks,
   causing disrupted supplies and widespread shortages in eastern and Western
   Europe.

   Minus 50

   Electricity consumption in Finland is the highest in the EU and more than
   double Germanya**s per capita use, in part because temperatures in winter
   can drop to as low as minus 50 degrees Centigrade (minus 58 degrees
   Fahrenheit). The nationa**s main option for increased energy independence
   lies with nuclear power because it lacks the oil and gas supplies of
   Russia and Norway.

   a**We have to reach our security of supply goal even in peak load
   situations,a** said Juha Naukkarinen, head of Finnish Energy Industries,
   which represents power producers. a**All applicants should get the permit
   and let them evaluate when to build.a**

   In 2009, Finlanda**s nuclear reactors generated one-third of the
   nationa**s 68.7 terawatt hours of electricity output, while hydropower
   accounted for 18 percent, Statistics Finland data show. Finland consumed a
   total of 80.8 million terawatt hours, with the difference made up by
   imports.

   At Least One

   Russian electricity cost Finland 365 million euros ($497 million) last
   year and accounted for three-quarters of all imported electricity, the
   statistics office said.

   Finance Minister Katainen is at odds with Prime Minister Matti
   Vanhanena**s Centre party, which is pushing for a mixture of new nuclear
   power and renewable energy. Economy Minister Mauri Pekkarinen, a Centre
   Party member, has said the government is unlikely to issue three new
   permits.

   a**We can easily see from the debate what the outcome will be,a** said
   Tapio Litmanen, a sociology professor at the University of Jyvaeskylae in
   central Finland who has edited a book on the nuclear power industry. a**At
   least one new license will be given.a**

   Finland, which has four working reactors, was second behind the U.K. among
   western nations to start building additional nuclear plants following the
   Chernobyl meltdown in Ukraine in 1986.

   a**Unnecessarya**

   Teollisuuden Voima, or TVO, one of the three applicants, is building the
   countrya**s fifth reactor, the worlda**s largest, on the west coast with
   Areva SA. The original target cost was 3 billion euros, though Areva has
   set aside 2.3 billion euros for cost overruns, the company said on March
   4.

   Environmental groups also point to construction delays at the TVO
   Olkiluoto-3 reactor, set to open three years late in 2012, as an example
   of the complexities and hazards associated with nuclear energy.

   Nuclear power is a**unnecessary for Finland at this time,a** said Janne
   Bjoerklund, the Finnish Association for Nature Conservationa**s nuclear
   campaign coordinator. a**Even one new atomic reactor will make Finland a
   nuclear power exporter.a**

   After Finnish electricity consumption fell 7.4 percent last year, the
   biggest drop since World War II as the recession trimmed output and the
   forest industry shuttered capacity, critics say thata**s evidence new
   reactors are not needed and the industrya**s consumption forecast is too
   high.

   TVO and Fortum, which are partly government owned, have selected sites and
   waste repository locations for their new plants. Fennovoima, 34 percent
   owned by E.ON, has narrowed possible locations down to two in northern
   Finland.

   Capacity

   E.ON, which runs power plants in Germany, the U.K. and Sweden, posted net
   income of 5.33 billion euros last year, adjusted to exclude changes in the
   value of fuel hedging. Shares of the Dusseldorf, Germany-based company
   have declined 2.5 percent so far this year. E.ON gained 0.5 percent to
   28.54 euros as of 11:13 a.m. in Frankfurt.

   Finlanda**s four reactors have a capacity of about 2,700 megawatts.
   Olkiluoto-3 will produce 1,600 megawatts. The proposed three new reactors
   would add from 3,500 megawatts to 6,100 megawatts. The government predicts
   electricity usage of about 100 terawatt hours in 2030, while the Finnish
   energy industry forecasts it will grow faster.

   New power sources are also needed to replace plants that come to the end
   of their lifespan and are taken offline. Fortuma**s two Loviisa reactors
   will be shuttered in 2027 and 2030. Of Finlanda**s current power plants,
   only Olkiluoto-3 and some hydropower plants will be generating electricity
   in 2050, Finnish Energy Industriesa** data shows.

   To contact the reporters on this story: Kati Pohjanpalo in Helsinki at
   kpohjanpalo@bloomberg.net; Diana ben-Aaron in Helsinki at
   dbenaaron1@bloomberg.net.
   Last Updated: April 15, 2010 05:26 EDT

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-04-15 13:40:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-01 03:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1138152_re-os-finland-finland-may-double-atomic-power-to-cut-russia.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1138211</id>
    <title>RE: G3 - US/ISRAEL-'No PM-Obama meeting scheduled'
</title>
    <description>   BB dislikes Obama immensely.  After hosting Biden, the last thing he wants
   to do is kiss Obama's arse. 
    
   From my lips to your ears. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Rodger Baker
   Sent: Friday, March 19, 2010 5:14 PM
   To: analysts@stratfor.com
   Cc: alerts
   Subject: Re: G3 - US/ISRAEL-'No PM-Obama meeting scheduled'
   no caveat. just facts - Whitehouse says no meeting scheduled at this
   time. 
   On Mar 19, 2010, at 5:11 PM, Reginald Thompson wrote:

we should caveat this, saying "no meeting was planned", cause the possibility of
a meeting wasn't ruled out

     'No PM-Obama meeting scheduled'                                          

     http://www.jpost.com/LandedPages/PrintArticle.aspx?id=171318
     3.19.10
     The White House said Friday that no meeting has been scheduled between
     US President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu for next
     week, despite a Fox News report of a planned parley. White House
     officials, however, didn't rule out the potential for such a meeting to
     be added to the schedule early next week, when Netanyahu is in town to
     address the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.
     On Thursday night, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spoke with
     Netanyahu over the phone. The two discussed the Ramat Shlomo
     construction crisis, and Netanyahu proposed mutual confidence building
     measures between Israel and the Palestinians in the West Bank. The media
     was not provided with specifics as to the measures considered, although
     the Prime Minister's Office noted that these had been agreed upon by
     Netanyahu's inner cabinet.

     With the Netanyahu government still drafting a formula on construction
     in Jerusalem to satisfy the Americans, the Prime Minister's Office said
     on Thursday that US Middle East envoy George Mitchell is scheduled to
     arrive here on Sunday to work toward indirect talks between Israel and
     the Palestinians.

     Mitchell was originally expected last week, but postponed his trip amid
     reports that he was awaiting Israeli answers to demands that Clinton had
     made, following the Ramat Shlomo construction flap.

     One of her demands was reportedly for Netanyahu to cancel the Ramat
     Shlomo project.

     Mitchell is scheduled to meet both Netanyahu and  Barak before the two
     of them leave for the US Sunday evening to attend the American Israel
     Public Affairs Committee's annual policy conference.

     Netanyahu on Thursday asked Barak to accompany him on the visit, which
     will take place during one of the most difficult patches in US-Israeli
     relations in years.

     Although no meetings with top-level US officials have yet been set,
     Netanyahu - despite the current tension - is expected to meet both
     Clinton and Vice President Joe Biden.

     The White House confirmed that Biden held a telephone conversation with
     Netanyahu on Tuesday, and agreed to meet with him.

     The last time Netanyahu went to Washington, to address the Jewish
     Federations of North America's annual conference in November, lack of
     the coordination with the White House resulted in an awkwardly arranged
     last-minute meeting.

     A repeat performance was to have been avoided next week by Obama's being
     out of town during Netanyahu's visit. But now, as Netanyahu returns to
     speak to AIPAC on Monday, amid even greater tensions with the US
     administration than existed in November, a similar potential for
     diplomatic discomfort arises.

     At this point, the White House is saying nothing about the president's
     schedule next week, with aides noting the decision to cancel the planned
     trip to Indonesia and Australia had only just been announced. The Prime
     Minister's Office also said it was too early to discuss a meeting, and
     that the focus of Netanyahu's visit was on the AIPAC conference.

     Obama's trip was scrapped so he could concentrate on turning up
     sufficient votes for his major domestic priority, a teetering health
     care bill that he wants to see Congress pass before its spring recess at
     the end of March. That means, at the very least, that large chunks of
     Obama's calendar in the coming days will be devoted to dealing with the
     legislation, not the Middle East.

     Obama, meanwhile, tried to dial down the crisis atmosphere in US-Israeli
     relations, saying on Wednesday night that the American and Israel people
     have a "special bond" even if recent actions in Jerusalem harmed the
     peace process.

     Obama told Fox News that "friends are going to disagree sometimes" and
     criticized Interior Minister Eli Yishai of Shas for taking moves that
     "weren't helpful" to the peace process.

     But Obama noted that Netanyahu "acknowledged as much and apologized for
     it."

     A planning committee within Yishai's ministry approved 1,600 units of
     housing in east Jerusalem during Biden's visit to Israel last week,
     embarrassing the US government and setting off the current diplomatic
     row.

     Obama stressed that "we need both sides to take steps to make sure that
     we can rebuild trust," and criticized the Palestinians for rioting at
     the rededication of the Hurva Synagogue in the the Old City's Jewish
     Quarter.

     Asked whether there was a crisis in the Jerusalem-Washington
     relationship, Obama answered negatively, saying, "Israel is one of our
     closest allies" and that "we and the Israeli people have a special bond
     that's not going to go away."

     Obama added that he "specifically sent" Biden to Israel "to send a
     message of support and reassurance about my belief that Israel's
     security is sacrosanct and that we have a host of shared interests."

     Also in the Fox interview, Obama reiterated America's intention to
     prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons in the face of setbacks to
     its strategy of engaging Teheran.

     "We are going to go after aggressive sanctions. We haven't taken any
     options off the table," he said, a phrase leaving open the possibility
     of using military force, which the administration has largely
     de-emphasized while pursuing its diplomatic outreach.

     "We are going to keep on pushing." Obama declared, "It is one of our
     highest priorities to make sure that Iran doesn't possess a nuclear
     weapon."

     Ambassador to the US Michael Oren, meanwhile, emphasized the need to
     work with the administration on that priority, in an op-ed piece in
     Thursday's New York Times, agreeing with Obama's assessment that
     relations are not in crisis.

     "American-Israeli cooperation is vital to meeting the direst challenge
     facing both countries and the entire world: denying nuclear weapons to
     Iran," he wrote. "Though we may disagree with the White House at certain
     stages of the peace process, we must never allow such differences to
     obscure the purpose we share or to raise doubts about the unbreakable
     bonds between us."

     Oren again denied having said that US-Israel ties were at their lowest
     point in 35 years while giving a confidential briefing to
     consuls-general on Saturday evening, as had been reported in the Hebrew
     media.

     "Israel and America enjoy a deep and multi-layered friendship, but even
     the closest of allies can sometimes disagree. Such a disagreement began
     last week," he wrote. "While this discord was unfortunate, it was not a
     historic low point in United States-Israel relations."

     Biden also put the fracas in perspective when addressing the Radio &amp; TV
     Correspondents' Dinner on Wednesday night, when top US officials are
     known to deliver speeches parodying themselves, current events and their
     political opponents.

     "Trying to negotiate a lasting peace between Palestinians and Israelis
     is tough - but it was a hell of a nice break from health care," he said,
     referring to the administration's efforts to twist enough arms to get
     the bill passed.

     He also said, to laughter and applause, "I love travel, but it's great
     to be back in a place where a boom in housing construction is actually a
     good thing."

No Netanyahu-Obama meeting scheduled

     http://www.jta.org/news/article/2010/03/19/1011226/netanyahu-obama-to-meet-report

     3.19.10

     WASHINGTON (JTA) -- No meeting with President Obama has been scheduled
     for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to the United
     States.

     Obama administration officials rejected a Fox News report Friday that
     the two leaders would meet in the Oval Office on Tuesday; nothing has
     been scheduled yet, the officials told JTA.

     Netanyahu's visit follows two weeks of tension triggered by Israel's
     announcement of a housing construction project in eastern Jerusalem
     during what was supposed to have been a friendly visit by U.S. Vice
     President Joe Biden.

     Officials at the Israeli embassy said they did not know of any planned
     Obama-Netanyahu meeting.

     Netanyahu will be in Washington to address the American Israel Public
     Affairs Committee annual policy conference. Obama was going to be away,
     on a tour of the Far East, but the White House announced Thursday that
     the trip was canceled because Obama is determined to shepherd his health
     care package through Congress. Since then, speculation has abounded
     about whether the two leaders would meet. A snub would be seen as a
     major humiliation for Netanyahu.

     On Thursday, Netanyahu phoned U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham
     Clinton and outlined for her measures he proposed to smooth the waters
     and entice the Palestinian Authority, which had suspended peace
     negotiations because of the announcement, back to talks.

     Neither side revealed the nature of Netanyahu's proposals, but media
     have suggested that Netanyahu might quietly suspend the Jerusalem
     housing project.

     Reginald Thompson

     ADP
     Stratfor
</description>
    <date>2010-03-19 23:25:13</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-27 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1138211_re-g3-us-israel-no-pm-obama-meeting-scheduled-.html</permalink>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1139919</id>
    <title>[Fwd: TrapWire on 100 Percent Chance of WMD Attack]]
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-02-15 14:33:17</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1139919_-fwd-trapwire-on-100-percent-chance-of-wmd-attack-.html</permalink>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1140035</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT- US/MENA-  Movements.org
</title>
    <description>   Good work Sean.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Tue, 29 Mar 2011 16:17:19 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT- US/MENA- Movements.org
   He is a co-founder and board member.  So he oversees the show, but isn't
   doing day-to-day work. 

   On 3/29/11 4:12 PM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     So what is Cohen's current ties with them?

     On 3/29/11 4:04 PM, Reginald Thompson wrote:

       SOURCE: n/a
       ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source   
       SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Main organizer at movements.org   
       PUBLICATION: Some is not for publication.  Rest is background   
       SOURCE RELIABILITY:
       ITEM CREDIBILITY:  [in terms of knowing what movements.org is doing,
       they are A-1, but in terms of what the other groups are doing, source
       is not great]
       SPECIAL HANDLING: none
       SOURCE HANDLER: Sean

       My Notes:

       How Movements.org got started:  [This part is not for publication]
       in 2008 it became apparent to the USG that they needed to do public
       diplomacy over the internet.  So Jared Cohen was at DoS then and
       played a major role in starting the organization.  The main goal was
       just spreading the good word about the US.  Similar inititiaves have
       come aobut in 21st Century Diplomacy and Civil Society 2.0, but
       movments.org has since split from the US government.  A key turning
       point in leading to its creates was seeing Oscar Morales organize a
       Global Day of Protest against FARC in 2008.  This is the first time
       social networking was really used to organize a protest.  [This part
       is not for publication]

       Three goals- Taking people wanting social change from the internet to
       constructive activism by:
           1. monopolizing on initial success (this generally means getting
       popular on facebook)
           2. Staying secure
           3. Peer-to-peer training

       Currently choosing "Unlikely Leaders" to be invited to the next Global
       Summit.  These are people that for example start a facebook activisit
       group that becomes very popular and then suddenly are completely
       unprepared--much like April 6 in Egypt.  CANVAS will also be invited. 
       Source is familiar with them, but has not been through their
       training. 

       they are part of a network of NGOs ready to negotiate with Facebook
       when activist accounts are deleted or hacked.  Movements.org wants a
       sort of Facebook customer service to be created just to deal with
       activism, since there are positives and negatives to allowing
       anonymous accounts, and those will probably never be allowed anyway. 

       Movements.org is engaging with these groups once they actually get
       popular.  This is the main criteria for their involvement, or inviting
       them to their Summits. 

       Answer to the neutrality issue-- "we are by no means trying to
       overthrow governments." Movements.org goal is to develop civil society
       and social movements.  

       [Not for Pub.  And don't let this get back to RS501, for now]
       "Serbia is exactly what we don't want to see"---Otpor needed a
       political leader and was able to create that, but Dindic was assinated
       in 2003 and the momentum of Otpor has not been maintained
       afterwards.   [Not for pub]

       The Internet is helpful in bring people together, but the hard part is
       keeping them together.  The first real examples politically were the
       color revolutions and now MENA.  But the challenge has been keeping
       the momentum going to keep these social movements alive.  They were a
       case study in the power of technology for short-term political change,
       but that's it. 

       Movements.org was communicating with someone at April 6 who said they
       had established different cells across Cairo in case one group was
       arrested.  [not sure if we knew this]

       Egyptians are now presented with two choices--1. to find a political
       leader and take power or, 2. To create a sustainable social movement. 
       Source sees this as a dichotomy. 
       Manuel Castells is the only academic to have really examined the
       internet in terms of social networks. 

       Agrees with S-weekly on Social media.  The impetus for these
       revolutions is there already, social media is just tapping into that. 

       MY THOUGHTS AND IMPRESSIONS
       First, to explain the thing about Serbia- the source is pretty set on
       trying to create these long-term sustainable social movements that are
       effective over various issues, rather than new political parties that
       take power.  The criticism of OTPOR is interesting, and is telling
       about how Movements.org would like to work. 

       I get the idea that this organization is actually farther behind then
       we are--understaffed and inexperienced.  I don't mean this critically,
       because really no one is that experienced in online organization--they
       are breaking new ground.  They have a pretty good understanding of the
       challenges presented by social media--and that is really what they are
       focusing on, but don't really have solutions yet.  Their main response
       to this is to develop this peer-to-peer training done through people
       they designate as ambassadors to work with others in their own country
       or region.  So really what Movements.org is doing right now is
       creating a database of training materials and valuable networks for
       groups to learn from each other--not doing direct training like
       CANVAS. 

       They are also doing everything after things get started--waiting for
       these groups to get big, then trying to work with them.  This means
       they aren't identifying countries or groups to start some shit in. 
       Though, I get the impression they would like to be more active in th
       emore oppresive countries like Cuba and Myanmar.   You can probably
       see how the idealism bleeds through. 

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-03-29 23:45:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1140035_re-alpha-insight-us-mena-movements-org-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1141030</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - IRAN/US: Pro-Democracy groups less funding
</title>
    <description>   PUBLICATION: background/analysis
   SOURCE: CANVAS leader SR 501
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY :  A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY:  A
   DISTRIBUTION:  Secure
   SOURCE HANDLER: Marko

   From our CANVAS source (he wrote it all in English, not my translation)

   Iran policy is largely made in the NSC under Dennis Ross. There is a
   growing
   Iran function at the State Department under Deputy Assistant Secretary
   John
   Limbert.

   Under previous congresses, appropriations for Iran democracy programs
   increased from
   $1.5 million in Fiscal Year 2004 to $60 million in Fiscal Year 2008.

   For Fiscal Year 2009, the Bush Administration requested $65 million for
   Iran democracy
   programs.
   But with a Democratic White House and Congress, the final FY 2009 omnibus
   appropriations bill came to the House floor with no line item for Iran
   democracy.
   Instead, the majority invented a new account a** the Near East Regional
   Democracy Fund
   a** and gave it only $25 million.

   While no official document exists stating the purpose of this fund
   (appropriately
   nicknamed the NERD), State Department officials claim it will be used for
   Iran democracy programs. But to date, none of the funds have been
   obligated a**
   and Fiscal Year 2009 ended on September 30.

   On October 6, the Boston Globe reported that at least four groups that
   previously
   received funding for Iran democracy programs had been cut off by the Obama
   Administration. Most notable were the Iran Human Rights Documentation
   Center, which
   received word its State Department grant was terminated just as it was
   ramping up
   investigations into the post-election crackdown -- and Freedom House Iran,
   a leader in
   exposing the regimea**s violence via cell phone images, photographs and
   eye
   witness
   testimony.

   USAID &amp; State offered $20m from July 2008 to end June 2009 but spent none
   of
   this.

   After the June 12, 2009, the NSC decided to neutralize the effect of
   existing programs, which had all begun under Bush. Apparently the
   rationale
   was that the US did not want to be seen to interfere in Iranian internal
   politics. The US does not want to give the Iranian regime an excuse to say
   no during the nuclear talks nor provide the EU 3 (UK, France, Germany)
   with
   the opportunity to claim that the US is not serious about engagement.

   As a result, the Iran Human Rights Documentation Center, Freedom House,
   IFES and IRI had substantial funding requests turned down.

   USAID &amp; State gave $3m to ABA to train Iranian lawyers and IRD, an
   organization that mainly does economic development, received $3m to do a
   Persian language website. We know than IFES has received a smal amount of
   continuation funding for existing projects.
</description>
    <date>2010-01-05 18:08:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-06-18 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1141030_insight-iran-us-pro-democracy-groups-less-funding-.html</permalink>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1141240</id>
    <title>Re: MORE* - Re: S3 - FRANCE/COTE D'IVOIRE/MIL - French forces deployed
	in Abidjan	- sources
</title>
    <description>   but France's troops have been in Abidjan for decades. It's like a second
   home to them. I guess the mutual defense treaties are not honored this
   time.

   On 3/31/11 1:02 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

     The French are conducting two theater operations in Africa... I mean I
     know, it's just 900 men in Ivory Coast preventing looting and they were
     already deployed in the region.

     But still. Don't compare this to the U.S. France is not U.S. Compare it
     to its neighbors in Europe. Hell, could Russia do something like that?

     On 3/31/11 11:47 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

       French troops said deployed in suburb of Ivorian economic capital

       Soldiers of the French Licorne [Unicorn] Force were on Thursday
       deployed in a neighbourhood in Abidjan which faces the threat of
       looting.

       Meanwhile, forces loyal to the president who is recognized by the
       international community, Alassane Ouattara, are shaking the current
       regime in place, AFP reported on 31 March.

       The Licorne Force (900 men) intervened following looting in Zone 4, a
       neighbourhood to the south of Abidjan where many Europeans, notably
       French nationals, are known to live and where several businesses are
       located, sources close to the issue said.

       Source: AFP news agency, Paris, in French 1613 gmt 31 Mar 11

       On 3/31/11 10:42 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

         French forces deployed in Abidjan - sources

         http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/french-forces-deployed-in-abidjan-sources/

          

         3.31.11

          

         ABIDJAN, March 31 (Reuters) - French forces have been deployed in
         some parts of Ivory Coast's main city of Abidjan, three sources said
         on Thursday.

         One source said soldiers from the 1,000-strong French Licorne force
         in Ivory Coast had been deployed in Zone 4, in the south of the
         city.

         A Western military source said others were sent to rescue some
         French nationals being attacked in the Deux Plateaux neighbourhood
         by youth supporters of Laurent Gbagbo, the incumbent leader who has
         refused to leave office since a disputed election last November.

         France&amp;apos;s armed forces declined to immediately comment.
         (Reporting by Ange Aboa and Tim Cocks; writing by David Lewis)

         -----------------
         Reginald Thompson

         Cell: (011) 504 8990-7741

         OSINT
         Stratfor

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com


 --
 Marko Papic
 Analyst - Europe
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
</description>
    <date>2011-03-31 20:07:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-06 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1141240_re-more-re-s3-france-cote-d-ivoire-mil-french-forces.html</permalink>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1141337</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT-MEXICO/US-Mishandling of ICE informants-US714
</title>
    <description>   Recent subsequent to this report

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 1 Apr 2011 12:28:09 -0500 (CDT)
   To: 'Korena Zucha'&lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;; 'Secure List'&lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: RE: INSIGHT-MEXICO/US-Mishandling of ICE informants-US714

   We wrote about that a couple years ago.

    

   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090819_confidential_informants_double_edged_sword

    

    

    

    

   From: Korena Zucha [mailto:zucha@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, April 01, 2011 1:22 PM
   To: 'Secure List'
   Subject: INSIGHT-MEXICO/US-Mishandling of ICE informants-US714

    

   Source Code: US714
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security Source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Officer with direct oversight of
   border investigations
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2-3
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   Regarding ICE screwing up informants:  

   They were handling big hitmen from Juarez and letting them kill in the
   U.S.
</description>
    <date>2011-04-01 19:31:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 05:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1141337_re-insight-mexico-us-mishandling-of-ice-informants-us714-.html</permalink>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1142108</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT-BOLIVIA-St. Dept source's take on Morales
</title>
    <description>Back in the day, we would have been planning his (and Chavez's)
helicopter "accident."  Guess I'm getting old, I think its best to keep
these lads around for comic relief.  Evo and Chevez belong in the US
Congress and could probably get elected.

Korena Zucha wrote:
&gt; SOURCE CODE: BOL701
&gt; ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR security source
&gt; SOURCE DESCRIPTION: State Dept. source in Bolivia
&gt; PUBLICATION: if desired
&gt; SOURCE RELIABILITY: Still testing
&gt; ITEM CREDIBILITY: Still testing
&gt; DISTRIBUTION: Secure
&gt; SPECIAL HANDLING:  None
&gt; SOURCE HANDLER: Fred
&gt; 
&gt; In response to Evo Morales saying 'Chicken causes baldness and
&gt; homosexuality'--
&gt; 
&gt; Evo says stupid things every day, but the local media here (which is
&gt; under his thumb) protects him in their 'lack of reporting' or twisting
&gt; it for disinformation purposes.  Unfortunately for him, he was
&gt; addressing an international audience so he could not be protected by his
&gt; lackey media drones from the international press.  For the first time,
&gt; the world got to see firsthand what a buffoon this 4th grade educated,
&gt; narco-trafficking, murderous thug is.  He is NOT the messiah and genius
&gt; that everyone touts him to be.  His rhetoric is anti-US and
&gt; anti-Capitalism, so he is the darling to the ultra-left and self-hating
&gt; US citizens (Danny Glover, Sean Penn, Oliver Stone, etc.)  He is
&gt; destroying Bolivia like Chavez is destroying Venezuela.  However, there
&gt; are now chinks in his armor.  His recent hypocrisy was to dispatch his
&gt; Minister of Finance last week to the US to engage those 'evil
&gt; capitalists' there to invest in Bolivia.  And, this was only a few days
&gt; after he lashed out (ala MO of Fidel Castro) on the evils of capitalism
&gt; and how the US was responsible for everything bad in the world.  Over
&gt; the weekend, Evo announced his government is engaging Vietnam and North
&gt; Korea to establish formal diplomatic relations with them, open embassies
&gt; and exchange ambassadors in an attempt to strengthen socialist
&gt; governments to destroy the US and capitalism.  He speaks of Robert
&gt; Mugabe as a 'dear freedom fighter' who is doing great things for
&gt; Zimbabwe.  If George W. Bush made a stupid statement like his
&gt; genetically modified chicken (and drinking Coca Cola, consuming Alka
&gt; Shelzer, both were made in his diatribes but omitted by the media), the
&gt; MSM (CNN, MSBNC, et all) would beat this Bush statement to death.  You
&gt; hear nothing from them when idiots like Chavez and Evo speak.  This
&gt; media bias is the double standard the left-leaning MSM media is guilty
&gt; of.  If they were doing their job, instead of being coconspirators in
&gt; their liberal politics, FoxNews would not be needed to balance out
&gt; objectivity.  Finally, the nomination of Evo for the Nobel Peace Prize
&gt; was just formally accepted yesterday as a result for his "Mother Earth"
&gt; Summit [aka, vehement anti-US, anti-Capitalism (specifically targeting
&gt; Coca Cola), anti-UN, pro-coca (sic cocaine) and narco-trafficking
&gt; platform that was embraced by 22,000 anti-US, left-wing anarchists in
&gt; attendance] as a result of the recent Climate Change Summit in Cochabamba.
</description>
    <date>2010-04-27 19:06:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1142108_re-insight-bolivia-st-dept-source-s-take-on-morales-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1143273</id>
    <title>RE: ANALYSIS FOR QUICK COMMENT- CAT. 3 - TURKEY: AKP fights back
</title>
    <description>   I don't disagree with you but this is all very new and in flux so it would
   be best if we didn't come out strongly that the AKP has contained the
   military. The TSK is not without cards and they are using them. Last week
   we had a brief on how they are again trying to get a case through the
   judiciary to have the ruling party outlawed on charges of supporting
   Kurdish separatism.  

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of George Friedman
   Sent: February-22-10 8:55 AM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: ANALYSIS FOR QUICK COMMENT- CAT. 3 - TURKEY: AKP fights back

    

   We know that there is tension between the government and the military.  It
   seems to me that the government is having no problem controlling the
   military elements. As this incidence shows the government knows what they
   are doing and arrests them when it feels like them.  Why isn't the
   conclusion here about the weakness of the secular forces and the strength
   of the Islamists.  This seems a very one-sided struggle.

   Emre Dogru wrote:

   with Kamran's approval. the sooner published the better. there is nothing
   about this in international media yet.

   A raid has started early in the morning in the houses and offices of the
   retired Turkish generals and some others were arrested Feb. 22. The reason
   of the recent investigation (which is the biggest against the retired and
   serving military officials so far) is the so-called Balyoz (Sledgehammer)
   plan (LINK:
   http://www.stratfor.com/sitrep/20100121_turkey_coup_plan_was_part_military_exercise_program)
   that reportedly outlined the plan of the Turkish army in 2003 to intervene
   should anti-secular movements get out of hand. Former 1st Army General
   Cetin Dogan, deputy commander of Turkish Armed Forces Ergin Saygun, navy
   general Ozden Ornek and air forces general Ibrahim Firtina are among those
   who are accused of being involved in army's plots to topple the ruling
   Justice and Development Party (AKP).

   Sledgehammer Plan was revealed in last January. The plan allegedly
   contains actions that the Turkish army was supposed to take in 2003, such
   as bombing a mosque in Istanbul and shutting down a Turkish jet plane over
   the Aegean Sea to blame Greece, in order to create necessary conditions to
   call state of emergency and repeal the government to take over the
   authority. Top commander of the Turkish Army Ilker Basbug, however,
   fiercely condemned those allegations. Former commander of the 1st Army
   Cetin Dogan, who is the main responsible of the plan, defended the
   Sledgehammer Plan as a war exercise and a usual contingency plan.

   There is already an ongoing probe since 2007 against the former soldiers,
   journalists and academicians who are accused of creating an organization
   called Ergenekon to topple the AKP government. Since it's beginning, AKP
   used Ergenekon probe to crack down on military and civilian forces that
   may pose challenge to AKP. Whether the recent Sledgehammer plan will be
   merged with the Ergenekon case remains to be seen. But the fact that some
   of the arrested generals are being sent to Istanbul to be questioned by
   Ergenekon prosecutors supports this possibility.

   The raid comes at a time when the struggle between the Islamist-rooted
   Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Turkey's strictly secular civilian
   and military bureaucracy intensified within the judiciary.(LINK:
   http://www.stratfor.com/node/154795). AKP government came under pressure
   with the recent spat within the judiciary over the allegations of
   interfering to the independence of judges and prosecutors. However, with
   the investigation and arrest of retired generals over the Sledgehammer
   Plan, AKP shows its ability to stave off such accusations and contain
   army's traditional influence in Turkish politics.

 --

 Emre Dogru

  

 STRATFOR

 +1.512.279.9468

 emre.dogru@stratfor.com

 www.stratfor.com

    

   --

   George Friedman

   Founder and CEO

   Stratfor

   700 Lavaca Street

   Suite 900

   Austin, Texas 78701

    

   Phone  512-744-4319

   Fax  512-744-4334
</description>
    <date>2010-02-22 15:01:03</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-14 17:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1143273_re-analysis-for-quick-comment-cat-3-turkey-akp-fights-back-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1143509</id>
    <title>Re: Classic Drew.... (hilarious)...
</title>
    <description>   Drew intends to have the cast broken &amp; recast every other week. He already
   thought of that. Rediculous man. 

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Feb 22, 2010, at 4:02 PM, Ben West &lt;ben.west@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

     You can't maintain dignity and grace with the amount of foot cheese he's
     going to have after wearing that thing for 9 weeks.

     Kevin Stech wrote:

       when i broke my arm in high school i rocked a ninja turtles cast for 2
       months.  hows that for dignity and grace.

       On 02-22 15:48, Nate Hughes wrote:

         nah, I rent my suits. And I had not the dignity and grace of Kenton
         Park to maintain.

         On 2/22/2010 4:45 PM, Kristen Cooper wrote:

           is that what you did, nate?
           ----- Original Message -----
           From: "Nate Hughes" &lt;hughes@stratfor.com&gt;
           To: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
           Cc: "Lauren Goodrich" &lt;goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;, "Matt Gertken"
           &lt;matt.gertken@stratfor.com&gt;, "Robert Reinfrank"
           &lt;robert.reinfrank@stratfor.com&gt;, "Eugene Chausovsky"
           &lt;eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com&gt;, "Ben West"
           &lt;ben.west@stratfor.com&gt;, "Benjamin Sledge"
           &lt;ben.sledge@stratfor.com&gt;, "Alex Posey" &lt;alex.posey@stratfor.com&gt;,
           "Bayless Parsley" &lt;bayless.parsley@stratfor.com&gt;, "Michael Wilson"
           &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;, "Kevin Stech"
           &lt;kevin.stech@stratfor.com&gt;, "Kristen Cooper"
           &lt;kristen.cooper@stratfor.com&gt;, "Reva Bhalla"
           &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;, "Karen Hooper" &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;,
           "nate hughes" &lt;nathan.hughes@stratfor.com&gt;
           Sent: Monday, February 22, 2010 3:05:52 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada
           Central
           Subject: Re: Classic Drew.... (hilarious)...

           I suggest finding a few suits he can part with and slicing up the
           leg. That way the dignity and grace of Kenton Park may be
           maintained and there is extra cause to be fitted for new suits in
           9 weeks.

           On 2/22/2010 4:03 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

             The flag in front of Casa Papic will fly at half mast in honor
             of Rt. Hon Andrew Anderson , Lord of Kenton Park.

             Lauren Goodrich wrote:

                
               So Andrew broke his foot today playing football with his
               mates. What would you guess he is most upset about? The pain?
               Being crippled? Nooooooooooa*|a*| not being able to wear his
               suits for the next 9 weeksa*| it is classic Drew (text below):
                
                
               I am in a cast for the next 9 weeks. That means 9 weeks of
               "Suiting Down". Today is a somber, somber, very somber day.
               People try to prepare you for days like this, but the reality
               is that no one can prepare you. Not even experiencing it once
               before can prepare you. It is traumatic each and every time it
               happens. The memorial is yet to be scheduled. If there is any
               silver lining in today's black hole of events, it is that the
               obligatory "Suit Re-birth", just over two months from now,
               will be remarkable enough to be famous. Till then I am living
               in a world of disarray.
                
                

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Ben West
 Terrorism and Security Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin,TX
 Cell: 512-750-9890
</description>
    <date>2010-02-22 23:13:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1143509_re-classic-drew-hilarious-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>hooper@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>nathan.hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ben.sledge@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>matt.gertken@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kristen.cooper@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kevin.stech@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bayless.parsley@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ben.west@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.wilson@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alex.posey@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>robert.reinfrank@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1144263</id>
    <title>Re: [latam] tasking - CHINA/ARGENTINA/ECON - China concerned about
 Argentina's protectionist trend: official
</title>
    <description>   paulo sergio gregoire wrote:

     There is a lot of good and cheap land available in the states of Piaui,
     Tocantins, Mato Grosso do Sul and Mato Grosso. These states have
     attracted many farmers from southern Brazil in the last years. The
     governor of Mato Grosso is the one of the biggest soybeans producers in
     the world and he is also from the south. It is a growing business in
     Brazil.
     Argentina has had trade disputes with everyone, including Brazil. Last
     year, they wanted to impose a quota on electronics coming from Brazil
     because they want to develop their own industry in southern Argentina.
     This current Argentine administration hasn't paid much attention to the
     agricultural business, which has caused a lot of discontentment in the
     agricultural sector.

     Karen Hooper wrote:

       Does Brazil have the excess capacity to completely replace Argentina's
       exports to China? This would be pretty devastating to the argentine
       agricultural sector (which, i might add is at extreme odds with the
       government, and their policies are not at all in lockstep). On the
       other hand, China is a HUGE market, and there are only a handful of
       places in the world that produce soybeans. If Brazil radically ramped
       up production, are there other markets that would absorb Argentine
       soy? Seems plausible, every time i turn around they're making
       something new out of soy....

       On 4/22/10 9:47 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

         depends on what the Chinese do. If they significantly cut Argentine
         soy imports, where is Argentina going to find that big of a
         replacement market?
         On Apr 22, 2010, at 8:45 AM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

           so there've been brewing trade frictions for some time then

           not exactly a shocker i guess -- arg has been seeing its trade
           position wither everywhere, with only brazil maintaining and only
           china expanding their interactions, makes sense that china would
           therefore be the point of most friction

           see any breakpoints coming?

           Reva Bhalla wrote:

             here is the timeline:
             last year, when the global econ crisis was hitting hard,
             Argentina passed two anti-dumping measures against China to try
             and mitigate their widening trade deficit with China. 
             Then, on April 1, China said Argentina oil contains unacceptably
             high traces of solvents.  Argentina said that's BS.  Then less
             than a couple weeks later, China transferred the right to issue
             permits for soy imports to the Ministry of Commerce. By giving
             this authority to central authorities, the Chinese govt is able
             to place tighter restrictions on these imports.
             Argentina supplied China with 77% of their soy last year.
              Brazil and the US would be pretty eager to make up the
             difference, though China seems to also be using this to boost
             its domestic soy industry.  China hasn't stopped importing soy
             from Argentina amid this trade dispute, but reports indicate
             that the imports have slowed. 
             On Apr 22, 2010, at 8:05 AM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

               think i'm getting lost

               so china complained that arg soy is contaminated, so arg
               responded to the complaint by launching a couple anti-dumping
               investigations which china feels are protectionist?

               Reva Bhalla wrote:

                 and Brazil stands to gain from this. They've already said
                 that they'll replace the Argentine soy to China with their
                 own
                 On Apr 22, 2010, at 7:50 AM, Matt Gertken wrote:

                   It's about the soy issue. The Chinese have threatened
                   countermeasures on Argentine soybeans saying the hexane
                   levels are too high (they officially raised the issue in
                   late March). They are responding to Argentina's initiation
                   of two anti-dumping investigations against Chinese
                   imports. 

                   Not sure about your point on protectionism -- the Chinese
                   have been using this term, and accusing everyone of doing
                   it, since at least the Sept G20 meeting if not before.
                   This is their mantra right now -- everyone is
                   protectionist except China. 

                   Peter Zeihan wrote:

                     no idea -- let's find out

                     Jennifer Richmond wrote:

                       Does this have anything to do with the ongoing soy
                       issue?  I think it is stemming from this and is a
                       one-off issue and not indicative of a growing trend.

                       Peter Zeihan wrote:

                         let's find out what -- its not so much that Arg is a
                         canary in the coal mine for anything, but there's
                         three things that come to mine

                         1) china in the past has offered credit outside of
                         intl norms to Arg -- has that happened? is it in
                         danger?
                         2) Arg has massively de-industrialized in recent
                         years -- this suggests that there may be a
                         (successful?) effort to reverse that trend -- if
                         there is we need to understand it
                         3) China is playing with fire whenever it uses the
                         word 'protectionist' -- i doubt they used it lightly

                         bottom line: could be several interesting things
                         going on here

                         Chris Farnham wrote:

                           China concerned about Argentina's protectionist    
                           trend: official                                    

                     English.news.cn                                             
                     2010-04-22        [IMG]Feedback[IMG]Print[IMG]RSS[IMG][IMG]
                     13:36:38          

                           http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/indepth/2010-04/22/c_13262679.htm

                           BUENOS AIRES, April 21 (Xinhua) -- China is
                           concerned about Argentina's growing tendency to
                           impose protectionist measures on Chinese products,
                           which has already hurt bilateral ties, a Chinese
                           trade official said.

                           Visiting Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Jiang
                           Yaoping made the comments in an interview with
                           Xinhua Tuesday here in Buenos Aires before leaving
                           the South American nation after a 48-hour visit.

                           -- 

                           Chris Farnham
                           Watch Officer/Beijing Correspondent , STRATFOR
                           China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
                           Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
                           www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director, Stratfor
 US Mobile: (512) 422-9335
 China Mobile: (86) 15801890731
 Email: richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com



  

       --
       Karen Hooper
       Director of Operations
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-04-22 16:27:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-05 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1144263_re-latam-tasking-china-argentina-econ-china-concerned-about.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>paulo.gregoire@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>latam@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:latam@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1146247</id>
    <title>Comrade J (KGB Defector) 
</title>
    <description>More to follow --

From Comrade J, the highest ranking Soviet defector to the U.S.


Did the KGB try to identify "Ramon Garcia" who repeatedly
stated that he would not identify himself to his employer in his letters
to the KGB and the GRU?

I was not involved in Hanssen's case. But as far as I remember, the work
with Hanssen was very well supervised. In this particular case there
were no specific efforts made to find out who and what Hanssen was. In
the Soviet/Russian intelligence there is an understanding (Hanssen's
case): DO NOT DIG AT ALL. They were professionals, there was no need to
identify him while he keeps providing exceptionally sensitive information.
</description>
    <date>2010-04-02 22:10:36</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1146247_comrade-j-kgb-defector-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1146487</id>
    <title>Re: OBL take -- quick response needed
</title>
    <description>   ISI should know by now since they have the homeowner.  There is much more
   to the story on The Courier which ISI doesn't know. 

   On 5/13/2011 6:18 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     You know this reminds me of a discussion I had on NPR's Diane Rehm Show
     back in July '07. I was on with Peter Brookes (former deputy assistant
     secretary of defense for Asian and Pacific affairs in the second Bush
     administration) and the State Dept's current CT Coordinator, Daniel
     Benjamin. These two guys kept saying how ObL was in the tribal belt
     while I argued that he was much deeper in K-P province. God knows how
     many years were wasted chasing the sob in the tribal belt.

     On 5/13/2011 7:04 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

       The investigative key would be two prong to uncover the links to Paki
       ISI and Mil:

       1) The Homeowner

       2) The Courier

       Both are known quantities.

       On 5/13/2011 5:56 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

         Could be anyone of Lt. Col or below rank. Then again it could be a
         retired military officer still serving as a civie in the
         directorate. Or a consultant/contractor who work in the field. Or
         even a civilian official (60 percent are civilians in the ISI).
         Since most army officers including the chief are deputed to the ISI
         for a max of 3 years, we are really talking about people who are
         career intel officers. Then there is a large cadre of retired army
         personnel outside the security establishment. Good luck sifting
         through the jungle.

         On 5/13/2011 5:29 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

           Not further specified.  But, it may help explain why the ISI chief
           has offered to resign, which is the noble way out.  He can be the
           fall guy for domestic consumption.   It would be best if he
           defected. 

           On 5/13/2011 4:23 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

             What does source mean by mid to senior level. As for retired, I
             can think of a number of them. So, that is not really
             surprising. 

             On 5/13/2011 2:27 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

               Same response as before:

               Mid to senior level ISI and Pak Mil with one retired Pak Mil
               General that had knowledge of the OBL arrangements and safe
               house.

               Names unk to me and not provided.

               Specific ranks unk to me and not provided.

               But, I get a very clear sense we (US intel) know names and
               ranks.

               I also do not know if we have passed this info to the GOP.

               If I was in command, I would not pass the info to the GOP,
               because we can't trust them. I would piece meal the names off
               and bury in a list of other non-related names for internal ISI
               traces in a non-alerting fashion, to see what the Pakis tell
               us.

               I may also trade one or two names for the captured tail
               rudder.

               Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

               From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
               Date: Fri, 13 May 2011 12:22:31 -0500 (CDT)
               To: Kamran Bokhari&lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
               Cc: Sean Noonan&lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;; Secure
               List&lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;
               Subject: Re: OBL take -- quick response needed
               I may be able to get that, let me ask. 

               On 5/13/2011 12:21 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

                 No surprises here. We will never find out their departments
                 but their ranks would be very telling.

                 On 5/13/2011 11:19 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                   awesome.  Please see what you can find out about what kind
                   of department they are in, or area they cover. 

                   On 5/13/11 9:58 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

 More on # 3 --

 Several w/in ISI and Pak Mil, less than 12.

 More on this later.


 On 5/12/2011 3:26 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

 1 specific operational plans

 2 communications with franchise groups (like AQAP)

 3 connections to anyone associated with the Pakistani state


 ------Original Message------
 From: Fred Burton
 To: Secure List
 Subject: OBL take -- quick response needed
 Sent: May 12, 2011 15:25

 I can get access to the materials seized from the OBL safe house.

 What are the top (not 45) questions we want addressed?


                   --

                   Sean Noonan

                   Tactical Analyst

                   Office: +1 512-279-9479

                   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

                   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

                   www.stratfor.com

                 --

             --

         --

     --
</description>
    <date>2011-05-14 01:47:27</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1146487_re-obl-take-quick-response-needed-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/6/6434_Signature.JPG</path><size>53193</size><md5></md5><sha1>5ee8f19bfa1ba0db5c4c413c3fe0d1731b650f71</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1146565</id>
    <title>RE: TURKEY/ISRAEL - Gulen criticizes flotilla in WSJ interview
</title>
    <description>   Our friend responds as follows:

    

   I believe he is seeking to do several things:

   1. He wants to distance himself from the ihh, another aid organization
   with Islamic roots.
   2. He wants to protect his community from any possible attack because of
   its aid/educational work.
   3. He is saying he would have done things differently.
   4. He may be heeding the U.S. sensitivities regarding Israel.

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of George Friedman
   Sent: June-04-10 3:10 PM
   To: Reva Bhalla; Analysts
   Subject: Re: TURKEY/ISRAEL - Gulen criticizes flotilla in WSJ interview

    

   It just split a bit more open wouldn't you say.

   Write a factual cat 2 and let's pull together what we can. Kamran has the
   main channel for understanding this.

   This was not something I was led to see as an issue.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;

   Date: Fri, 4 Jun 2010 14:06:26 -0500

   To: &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;; Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;

   Subject: Re: TURKEY/ISRAEL - Gulen criticizes flotilla in WSJ interview

    

   by whom?  Ibrahim?

    

   Zaman is the main Gulenist institution

    

   there have always been tensions between the AKP and Gulen. That split is
   already open

    

   On Jun 4, 2010, at 2:05 PM, George Friedman wrote:

   Let's keep the cat 2 factual and not draw conclusions yet. Let's see what
   kamran gets. We need to gage how this will impact the turkish government.

   I know that I was steered away from zaman to sabah by him. I think there
   may be a split opening.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;

   Date: Fri, 4 Jun 2010 14:02:21 -0500 (CDT)

   To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;

   Subject: Re: TURKEY/ISRAEL - Gulen criticizes flotilla in WSJ interview

    

   im on it

    

    

   On Jun 4, 2010, at 2:01 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

   Sounds like a way for AKP to move to a safe distance as well. Let us a do
   a CAT 2 on this.

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
   [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Reva Bhalla
   Sent: June-04-10 2:57 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: TURKEY/ISRAEL - Gulen criticizes flotilla in WSJ interview

    

   NOte that he's very noticeably distancing his movment from the IHH

    

    

   On Jun 4, 2010, at 1:51 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

   This should be repped.  

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On
   Behalf Of Bayless Parsley
   Sent: June-04-10 2:50 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: TURKEY/ISRAEL - Gulen criticizes flotilla in WSJ interview

    

   Reclusive Turkish Imam Criticizes Gaza Flotilla
   http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704025304575284721280274694.html#printMode

   6/4/10

   By JOE LAURIA

   SAYLORSBURG, Pa.-Imam Fethullah Gu:len, a controversial and reclusive U.S.
   resident who is considered Turkey's most influential religious leader,
   criticized a Turkish-led flotilla for trying to deliver aid without
   Israel's consent.

   Speaking in his first interview with a U.S. news organization, Mr. Gu:len
   spoke of watching news coverage of Monday's deadly confrontation between
   Israeli commandos and Turkish aid group members as its flotilla approached
   Israel's sea blockade of Gaza. "What I saw was not pretty," he said. "It
   was ugly."

   Mr. Gu:len said organizers' failure to seek accord with Israel before
   attempting to deliver aid "is a sign of defying authority, and will not
   lead to fruitful matters."

   Mr. Gu:len's views and influence within Turkey are under growing scrutiny
   now, as factions within the country battle to remold a democracy that is a
   key U.S. ally in the Middle East. The struggle, as many observers
   characterize it, pits the country's old-guard secularist and military
   establishment against Islamist-leaning government workers and ruling
   politicians who say they seek a more democratic and religiously tolerant
   Turkey. Mr. Gu:len inspires a swath of the latter camp, though the extent
   of his reach remains hotly disputed.

   His words of restraint come as many in Turkey gave flotilla members a
   hero's welcome after two days of detention in Israel. Prime Minister Recep
   Tayyip Erdogan of the ruling Justice and Development Party condemned
   Israel's moves as "bullying" and a "historic mistake."

   Mr. Gu:len said he had only recently heard of IHH, the Istanbul-based
   Islamic charity active in more than 100 countries that was a lead flotilla
   organizer. "It is not easy to say if they are politicized or not," he
   said. He said that when a charity organization linked with his movement
   wanted to help Gazans, he insisted they get Israel's permission. He added
   that assigning blame in the matter is best left to the United Nations.

   Mr. Gu:len has long cut a baffling figure, as critics and adherents have
   sparred over the nature of his influence in Turkey and the extent of his
   reach. Leading a visitor on Wednesday past his front corridor-adorned with
   a map of Turkey, a verse from the Quran and a photograph of a Turkish F-16
   jet over the Bosphorus-he portrayed himself an apolitical teacher. "I do
   not consider myself someone who has followers," he said.
   More

       * Opinion: Turkey's Radical Drift
       * New Aid Ship Heads to Gaza
       * Israel Explores Easing Its Blockade of Gaza
       * Turkish Group Sees Victory in Martyrdom
       * Israel's Isolation Deepens
       * In Israel and Abroad, Raid Spurs Criticism of Military's Judgment
       * Aboard Marmara, Skirmish Turns Deadly
       * Complete Coverage: WSJ.com/Mideast 

   Born in eastern Turkey in 1941, Mr. Gu:len became a state-licensed imam at
   17, after three years of formal education and studies with Sufi masters.
   In a Turkey largely under the sway of a military-secularist establishment,
   he built a national organization of Islamic study and boarding halls,
   gaining support of many wealthy Muslims but at times running afoul of the
   law.

   While in the U.S. in 1999 for medical treatment, he was charged in Turkey
   with attempting to create an Islamic state- anathema under Turkey's
   secularist constitution. He stayed in Pennsylvania, where he now lives on
   a 25-acre estate in the Pocono Mountains. Over the years, he said, he has
   left the estate twice.

   Mr. Gu:len preaches nonviolence, dialogue between Western and Muslim
   worlds, and an educational tradition that combines study of science and
   Islam. His newspaper columns, weekly Internet sermons and other messages
   have been collected into more than 60 books. His adherents number, by
   various estimates, three million to eight million.

   Followers have established hundreds of schools in more than 100 countries
   and run an insurance company and an Islamic bank, Asya, that its 2008
   annual report said had $5.2 billion in assets. They own Turkey's largest
   daily newspaper, Zaman; the magazine Aktion; a wire service; publishing
   companies; a radio station and the television network STV, according to
   Helen Rose Ebaugh, a University of Houston sociologist and author of "The
   Gu:len Movement." She says followers donate up to one-third of their
   income to independent Gu:len-linked foundations.

   Ms. Ebaugh said Mr. Gu:len doesn't sit on the boards of Asha bank nor any
   foundation or editorial boards of Gu:len-sympathetic magazines, newspapers
   or television stations. In the interview, the imam said he had no
   financial interest in any holdings.

   Mr. Gu:len's detractors see him as a cult-like leader whose empire aims to
   train an Islamic elite who will one day rebuild the Turkish state. Soner
   Cagaptay, a Gu:len critic who is a Turkey analyst at the Washington
   Institute for Near East Policy, says the Turkish police force may be
   largely influenced by the imam through Gu:len sympathizers in key
   positions-effectively creating a counterbalance to Turkey's powerful
   military, a secularist bastion.

   "I am not a leader of a faction or someone who would cause some state
   officials to follow me despite their official duties," Mr. Gu:len said in
   the interview.

   The U.S. has "immense ambivalence" about Mr. Gu:len, said Graham Fuller,
   an ex-Central Intelligence Agency officer who is a resident consultant at
   the Rand Corp. in British Columbia.

   "On the one hand they do perceive him as very moderate and doing many
   positive things," Mr. Fuller said. But Washington has long thrown its lot
   behind the secularist followers of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, he says, viewing
   them "as the only narrative to what Turkish politics is all about."

   The U.S. State Department declined to comment about Mr. Gu:len for this
   article.

   In 2007, U.S. Homeland Security moved to deny Mr. Gu:len
   permanent-resident status in the U.S., rejecting his claim of exceptional
   ability as an educator. "The record contains overwhelming evidence that
   plaintiff is primarily the leader of a large and influential religious and
   political movement with immense commercial holdings," the government
   wrote.

   Mr. Gu:len won on appeal after getting 29 letters of support, including
   one from Mr. Fuller.

   The imam disputed Homeland Security's characterization. He goes only so
   far as to provide guidance to those who ask, he said.

   The 2002 election of the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, opened a
   new era for Mr. Gu:len and those he inspires, given their common foe in
   the military-secularist establishment.

   The AKP says it has no political ties to Mr. Gu:len. The imam says critics
   have linked him, falsely, to Turkey's current and previous leaders. "I do
   not have and have never had any relationship with a movement that has
   political aspirations," he said. "I am just a Turkish citizen."

   Last month, Mr. Gu:len's followers founded the Assembly of Turkic American
   Federations in Washington, a lobbying and umbrella organization for some
   180 local non-profit foundations around the U.S. involved in education and
   culture.

   An English-language Turkish newspaper reported that Mr. Gu:len has told
   his followers they couldn't visit him on his Poconos estate if they didn't
   first donate to their local congressman. Mr. Gulen denies making the
   remark.

   Mr. Gu:len said that for Muslims, benefiting their community is both an
   Islamic and humanitarian duty, and that he would be happy if those who
   respect him support their lawmakers in the name of democracy and
   humanitarianism.

   "I hear that some people in the United States consider Turkey as sitting
   at the epicenter of radicalism," Mr. Gu:len said. The new federation's
   lobbying would aim "to reflect through sincere, pro-dialog and open-minded
   people the true nature of Turkey's realities."

   Write to Joe Lauria at newseditor@wsj.com

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2010-06-04 22:44:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-12 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1146565_re-turkey-israel-gulen-criticizes-flotilla-in-wsj-interview-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1147093</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT: PKK and alledged Israel role
</title>
    <description>   Fascinating stuff, Yerevan. Good work. Makes a lot of sense from the PKK
   point of view to play up the Israeli links. Will definitely be using this
   insight for our analysis

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Jun 5, 2010, at 3:56 PM, Yerevan Saeed &lt;yerevan.saeed@stratfor.com&gt;
   wrote:

     hello, I sent out this Insight earlier to WO, but did not get posted,
     probably cz its weekend. I am sending it for you so that it can be used
     if found useful.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Yerevan Saeed" &lt;yerevan.saeed@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "watchofficer" &lt;watchofficer@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Saturday, June 5, 2010 10:58:17 AM
     Subject: INSIGHT: PKK and alledged Israel role

      

     Source: PKK close associate and advisor

     Source credibility: Really new

     Distribution: Mesa, Analysts

     Source handler: Yerevan

     Last night, I met a close PKK associate who is from Iraq, but works for
     the PKK as advisor. we had a chat about the current situaion in Turkey
     and the Flotilla in Gaza.  He said some interesting staff about PKK and
     Israel role in the recent demonstrations in Southeast Turkey.

      

     He told me that Israel is doing everything possible to make noises in
     Turkey via Kurdish channels to bring up Kurdish issue to the eyes of the
     international community in the hope of reducing the public relation cam
     paign agianst it by Turkey. He said that the Kurds are Israel's only
     option at the moment to put pressure on Turkey.

      

      

      

     The source said, there will be  more dmonstrations and protests in
     Turkey at the present time.

      

     Regarding the PKK break of its ceasefire, he said that PKK delibrately
     chose this time, in fact they did not want to break the ceasefire at
     least officially, but the Flotilla and the nature of Israel and Turkey
     relations made PKK to break the ceasefire to plant the seed in the minds
     of the Turks that there is a real relation between PKK and Israel.

      

     The source said that worsening Israel/Turkey relations will help PKK
     very much, since Turkey has used Israeli intelligence to target PKK and
     has been provided with hich tech by Israel.

      

     the source said that PKK is very carefully handling with the situation
     in Turkey and there will be more attacks and demonstrations for two
     things.

      

     1- to try to undermine Turkey/Israel relations as much as possible.

     2- PKK thinks that this is the best time to make the Kurdish issue to be
     heard in the outside world, especailly after Erdogan said tat Hamas is
     not a terrorist organization.

      

     the source said that the leadership of the PKK is very happy about the
     statements made by the Turkish officials about Hamas.

      

     I asked him if there is a real relations between PKK and Israel. he said
     he does not know, but PKK is happy about the current situation happening
     between Israel and the PKK.
     --
     Yerevan Saeed
     STRATFOR
     Phone: 009647701574587
     IRAQ

     --
     Yerevan Saeed
     STRATFOR
     Phone: 009647701574587
     IRAQ
</description>
    <date>2010-06-05 23:13:26</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-14 17:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1147093_re-insight-pkk-and-alledged-israel-role-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>yerevan.saeed@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1147293</id>
    <title>Re: wall st firms in deep shit
</title>
    <description>Real interest rates are negative (i.e. below inflation), and the Fed and
Treasury are every day loosening their definition of what's possible. 
These factors are very inflationary, although not in an immediate
sense.  In the immediate present, investors are fleeing stocks for the
perceived safety of bonds.  As another wave or two of price inflation
hits, that perception of safety will erode drastically.  Investors will
demand higher interest rates to compensate.  Rapid issuance of Treasury
bonds to cover ballooning obligations (plus bailouts) will also drive
interest rates up.  Bonds of all stripes should suffer heavily in the
next couple years.  Look to short Treasuries and Eurodollar CD's over
the coming months, especially if the Fed cuts its target rate further. 
There are also easy to use ETF's that will track the inverse movement of
key interest rates.  You just buy shares and sit on em.

Not sure if this screws anybody else, but it will personally make you money.

Fred Burton wrote:
&gt; How do I personally make money and screw everybody else is what every
&gt; rational Stratfor subscriber is thinking today (like me.)   
&gt;
&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt; From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
&gt; On Behalf Of Kevin Stech
&gt; Sent: Sunday, September 14, 2008 7:47 PM
&gt; To: Analyst List
&gt; Subject: wall st firms in deep shit
&gt;
&gt; Lehman and Merrill are both set to declare bankruptcy unless they are bought
&gt; or bailed.  Lehman especially looks doomed. AIG is planning a major asset
&gt; sale to remain solvent.  Should be an interesting day in the markets
&gt; tomorrow.
&gt;
&gt; --
&gt; Kevin R. Stech
&gt; Monitor/Researcher
&gt; STRATFOR
&gt; Ph: 512.744.4086
&gt; Em: kevin.stech@stratfor.com
&gt;
&gt; _______________________________________________
&gt; Analysts mailing list
&gt;
&gt; LIST ADDRESS:
&gt; analysts@stratfor.com
&gt; LIST INFO:
&gt; https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts
&gt; LIST ARCHIVE:
&gt; https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts
&gt;
&gt; _______________________________________________
&gt; Analysts mailing list
&gt;
&gt; LIST ADDRESS:
&gt; analysts@stratfor.com
&gt; LIST INFO:
&gt; https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts
&gt; LIST ARCHIVE:
&gt; https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts
&gt;   

-- 
Kevin R. Stech
Monitor/Researcher
STRATFOR
Ph: 512.744.4086
Em: kevin.stech@stratfor.com

_______________________________________________
Analysts mailing list

LIST ADDRESS:
analysts@stratfor.com
LIST INFO:
https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts
LIST ARCHIVE:
https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts
</description>
    <date>2008-09-15 14:56:21</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2011-03-15 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1147293_re-wall-st-firms-in-deep-shit-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kevin.stech@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1147341</id>
    <title>Re: wall st firms in deep shit
</title>
    <description>Source is unnamed official who was present at today's meetings at the
Manhattan Fed bldg.

Partial list of mtg participants:
 Paulson, Timothy Geithner, president of the New York Fed, Securities
and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox, and a host of CEOs,
including Vikram Pandit of Citigroup Inc., Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase
&amp; Co., John Mack of Morgan Stanley, Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs
Group Inc., and Merrill Lynch &amp; Co.'s John Thain.

Govt officials tried to broker a Lehman buyout, but would not backstop
the deal as with Bear. Nobody would bite.

The source said the Fed and Treasury pushed B. of A. to buy Merrill.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hCKSS1sJl3_Z9F0al2ztN1YxGO-gD936ORQG3
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/apwire/61b43e203125201d23e6cf65050fbc25.htm

George Friedman wrote:
&gt; Source on Merrill? 
&gt;
&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt; From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
&gt; On Behalf Of Kevin Stech
&gt; Sent: Sunday, September 14, 2008 7:47 PM
&gt; To: Analyst List
&gt; Subject: wall st firms in deep shit
&gt;
&gt; Lehman and Merrill are both set to declare bankruptcy unless they are bought
&gt; or bailed.  Lehman especially looks doomed. AIG is planning a major asset
&gt; sale to remain solvent.  Should be an interesting day in the markets
&gt; tomorrow.
&gt;
&gt; --
&gt; Kevin R. Stech
&gt; Monitor/Researcher
&gt; STRATFOR
&gt; Ph: 512.744.4086
&gt; Em: kevin.stech@stratfor.com
&gt;
&gt; _______________________________________________
&gt; Analysts mailing list
&gt;
&gt; LIST ADDRESS:
&gt; analysts@stratfor.com
&gt; LIST INFO:
&gt; https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts
&gt; LIST ARCHIVE:
&gt; https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts
&gt;
&gt; _______________________________________________
&gt; Analysts mailing list
&gt;
&gt; LIST ADDRESS:
&gt; analysts@stratfor.com
&gt; LIST INFO:
&gt; https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts
&gt; LIST ARCHIVE:
&gt; https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts
&gt;   

-- 
Kevin R. Stech
Monitor/Researcher
STRATFOR
Ph: 512.744.4086
Em: kevin.stech@stratfor.com

_______________________________________________
Analysts mailing list

LIST ADDRESS:
analysts@stratfor.com
LIST INFO:
https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts
LIST ARCHIVE:
https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts
</description>
    <date>2008-09-15 04:01:17</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2011-03-15 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1147341_re-wall-st-firms-in-deep-shit-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kevin.stech@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1147730</id>
    <title>[alpha] Fwd: RE: Training Opportunity
</title>
    <description>

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: 	RE: Training Opportunity
Date: 	Wed, 30 Mar 2011 21:26:56 -0400
From: 	Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
To: 	Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;



Waste of time and money. Several of our client casinos sent people to this -- and came away disappointed. (Many said it appeared these guys just cut-n-pasted articles from the internet on to a PPT.) Nothing original, and nothing that a cop outside of Tel Aviv could really use. Rules of Engagement are just a tad different in the Holy Land.

M 

-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
Sent: Wednesday, March 30, 2011 5:23 PM
To: Michael Maness
Subject: Fwd: Training Opportunity

** Israelis trying to steal your rice bowl! 

Force Pro related and does assist frontline operators and security
professionals in gathering tactical operational intelligence.

http://www.tsstraining.com/documents/TSS.Behavioral-Pattern-Recognition-Las-Vegas-06-2011.pdf
</description>
    <date>2011-03-31 03:48:48</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1147730_-alpha-fwd-re-training-opportunity-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1147942</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - Cote d'Ivoire - update &amp; impending crisis?
</title>
    <description>    
   CODE: no code... its my dad
   PUBLICATION:  Yes/background
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  my father... works via global outreach and nothing
   but nets
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   HANDLER: Lauren
    
   My father just returned from Cote d'Ivoire...
    
   Here are his findings from his trip + his dinner with Former Prime
   Minister Daniel Duncan:
    
   Elections are still stalled (of course). The President won't call
   elections until he feels he can win.
   The four opposition parties have come to this agreement: they will each
   run their own candidate in the first round, but in the second round all
   four opposition parties will consolidate behind their one candidate
   against the president.
    
   The change now is that the president is getting pressure from the
   international community to call elections soon. The United Nations came to
   visit recently and said that they won't give any more aid or investment to
   Cote d'Ivoire until elections are called.
    
   This could actually light a fire under his ass... the country counts on
   that money to survive, as well as, is counting on that money to help stave
   off a possible crisis in the future over electricity.
    
   CRISIS: Cote d'Ivoire use to be an electricity exporter, but is now an
   importer with HUGE interruptions in electricity. My father counted an
   average of 6 interruptions a day - some lasting hours. The problem is the
   aging electricity systems. The UN was looking to help with this, but they
   won't consider such investment without a change politically.
    
   STRIKES: The next big strike could come from the teachers, who have not
   been paid in 4 months. Public schools may be shut down. Private schools
   are still running because those have foreign backers, but the government
   is suppose to be given stipens to those schools as well and hasn't for
   months.
    
   SECURITY: Military was less present on this trip than in Feb (during the
   riots) &amp; April. Though they are still visible on the streets and holding
   roadblocks everywhere. But there isn't any real large military equipment
   on the streets anymore.
    
    
    
</description>
    <date>2010-05-01 22:57:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-06 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1147942_insight-cote-d-ivoire-update-and-impending-crisis-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1148174</id>
    <title>MORE (reply from CN65) Re: INSIGHT - CHINA/MINING - new source(s)
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE: CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator.  Source is 
   well-connected politically, militarily and economically.  He has become a
   private businessman helping foreign companies with M&amp;As
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

   I think that small companies cannot compete in terms of technology or
   capital.  Of that there is no doubt.  But where foreign companies do get
   access to tenements, they always seem to lose out because the mining
   sector in China is one of the most corrupt sectors of all.
   In witness of the latter point consider a recent case that came to light
   in China about May 25-26 in the China Daily.  It involved a suit brought
   by a local magistrate against a mining company owner in Southern China for
   profits he claims should have been distributed out of the mine.  The
   magistrate was a shareholder.
   The company owner disputed the claim on the basis that the magistrate had
   somehow forfeited or abandoned his shares in the company (there seems to
   have been some capital reconstruction at some stage in the past).  The
   main reason for this argument was that in 2005 (?) the government had
   prohibited government officials, and especially magistrates, from being
   shareholders in mining companies because of the endemic corruption this
   engendered.
   The magistrate won his case. The company owner was seeking an appeal.
    Informed commentary said that the magistrate was entitled to win in
   contract law, but the local court in the area had failed to consider the
   fact he should not have had any shareholding at all.
   This is the supervening corruption which makes issues of government policy
   of marginal importance.
   Ironically, this corruption is one of the impediments to Chinese interests
   not having accumulated even greater stakes in the resources sector in
   Australia.  They simply cannot get it in their heads that the rule of law
   applies to mining projects in Australia.  They refuse to believe that they
   have a right to receive a mining lease subject only to complying with
   relevant environmental permitting conditions.  They think you have no
   credibility unless you tell them they need to bribe someone!!!

   Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

     Source code: New acquaintance 
     Publication: If so desired but more useful as back ground info
     Source description: Source has worked for a number of Chinese mining
     groups and works in close contact with the Ministry of Land and
     Resources
     Attribution: Mining source in China
     Source reliability: B/C (source is new to me)
     Item credibility: 1-2 (pretty commonly held knowledge)
     Distribution: analysts
     Source handler: Chris

     Chit chat from a BBQ last night. 
     Source tells me: 
     - of a foreign company that had paid for prospecting rights near Dalian
     and when they finally found gold the government told them that they
     couldn't dig it up for environmental reasons. Now of course the Chinese
     are getting ready to dig it up. 
     Another group (who I know the GM of as well) who had gone through 7
     years of prep, building local infrastructure, getting screwed by local
     forms and extorted by the local security orgs was finally ready to begin
     extraction when the Chinese gave them some BS reason and kicked them out
     of the project. The Chinese are now of course removing that gold from
     the ground themselves. 
     Local mining interests have pressured the government to block foreign
     mining investment because the locals cannot compete with foreign
     technology. 
     Another chap at the BBQ, a foreigner who seems to be pretty with it here
     and runs a pretty profitable marketing/PR firm tells me that he has been
     in the "war room" of CIC and says that it was breathe taking. He says
     that divided up in to industries are all the companies that export to
     China and there are internal departments that collect share holder info
     for each company and who's task it is to buy up ownership of said
     exporters to China. 
     Will be chatting to these guys more down the track. 

     --

     Chris Farnham
     Watch Officer/Beijing Correspondent , STRATFOR
     China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
     Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

     --

     Chris Farnham
     Watch Officer/Beijing Correspondent , STRATFOR
     China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
     Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director, Stratfor
 US Mobile: (512) 422-9335
 China Mobile: (86) 15801890731
 Email: richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-06-07 17:42:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1148174_more-reply-from-cn65-re-insight-china-mining-new-source-s-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1149294</id>
    <title>Confed Fuckhouse
</title>
    <description> --
 Matthew Powers
 STRATFOR Senior Researcher
 Matthew.Powers@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-04-04 23:14:10</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1149294_confed-fuckhouse-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>kevin.stech@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>matthew.powers@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/102/102203_stratfor - confederation program.xlsx</path><size>30292</size><md5></md5><sha1>3637c6b1d20bdadcb5d74a7349fddf9ded2cc6a9</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1151645</id>
    <title>Re: wall st firms in deep shit
</title>
    <description>   Its a us government guarantee. Fdic will be covered and insurance rates
   hiked down the road.

   What are the asian markets doing?

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Kevin Stech &lt;kevin.stech@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Sun, 14 Sep 2008 21:19:14 -0500
   To: &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;; Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: wall st firms in deep shit

   From NYT:

   "Administration officials acknowledged this week that more bank failures
   are inevitable, and the main protection for depositors - the Federal
   Deposit Insurance Corporation - is likely to exhaust the reserves it has
   built over the years from bank insurance premiums."

   This has been my concern for a while.  Before the credit crunch began 1
   year ago, FDIC held approximately one penny of reserves for every dollar
   of deposits it guaranteed.  At some point FDIC will have to be rescued as
   well.

   friedman@att.blackberry.net wrote:

 Markets already discounted lehmann. Merrill will be stunning. The end of the quarter is nigh. Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T  -----Original Message----- From: Kevin Stech &lt;kevin.stech@stratfor.com&gt;  Date: Sun, 14 Sep 2008 21:01:17 To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt; Subject: Re: wall st firms in deep shit   Source is unnamed official who was present at today's meetings at the Manhattan Fed bldg.  Partial list of mtg participants:  Paulson, Timothy Geithner, president of the New York Fed, Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox, and a host of CEOs, including Vikram Pandit of Citigroup Inc., Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., John Mack of Morgan Stanley, Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and Merrill Lynch &amp; Co.'s John Thain.  Govt officials tried to broker a Lehman buyout, but would not backstop the deal as with Bear. Nobody would bite.  The source said the Fed and Treasury pushed B. of A. to buy Merrill. http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hCKSS1sJl3_Z9F0al2ztN1YxGO-gD936ORQG3http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/apwire/61b43e203125201d23e6cf65050fbc25.htm  George Friedman wrote:  

 Source on Merrill?  -----Original Message----- From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Kevin Stech Sent: Sunday, September 14, 2008 7:47 PM To: Analyst List Subject: wall st firms in deep shit  Lehman and Merrill are both set to declare bankruptcy unless they are bought or bailed.  Lehman especially looks doomed. AIG is planning a major asset sale to remain solvent.  Should be an interesting day in the markets tomorrow.  -- Kevin R. Stech Monitor/Researcher STRATFOR Ph: 512.744.4086 Em: kevin.stech@stratfor.com  _______________________________________________ Analysts mailing list  LIST ADDRESS:analysts@stratfor.com LIST INFO:https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts LIST ARCHIVE:https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts  _______________________________________________ Analysts mailing list  LIST ADDRESS:analysts@stratfor.com LIST INFO:https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts LIST ARCHIVE:https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts     

  -- Kevin R. Stech Monitor/Researcher STRATFOR Ph: 512.744.4086 Em: kevin.stech@stratfor.com  _______________________________________________ Analysts mailing list  LIST ADDRESS:analysts@stratfor.com LIST INFO:https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts LIST ARCHIVE:https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts _______________________________________________ Analysts mailing list  LIST ADDRESS:analysts@stratfor.com LIST INFO:https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts LIST ARCHIVE:https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts  

 -- Kevin R. Stech Monitor/Researcher STRATFOR Ph: 512.744.4086 Em: kevin.stech@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2008-09-15 04:21:32</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2011-03-15 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1151645_re-wall-st-firms-in-deep-shit-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kevin.stech@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1151790</id>
    <title>RE: INSIGHT - Iran/Iraq/US - iranian response to sanctions in Iraq
</title>
    <description>   As I see it the Iranians are in a sort of a bind on how the can use Iraq
   against the United States. On one hand, things are looking pretty good in
   terms of Tehran's Shia allies dominating the next government, which means
   Iran filling the geopolitical vacuum created by the withdrawal of U.S.
   forces. That alone could force the American hand. So, it is not clear if
   the IRI wants to light a fire under its western neighbor and ruin its own
   position. Keep in mind that the al-Sadrite militia is more of a symbolic
   tool than a real one. It is no longer the fighting force it used to be and
   by (Iranian) design. The Iranians have other non-brand name entities that
   they can rely on should the need arise.

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Reva Bhalla
   Sent: June-15-10 10:05 AM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - Iran/Iraq/US - iranian response to sanctions in
   Iraq

    

   yes, have some additional insight on what the Iranians have been planning
   for the Sadrites and their comeback

    

    

   On Jun 15, 2010, at 8:47 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

   we wrote about al-Sadrite's decision to reactivate Mahdi Army and Iranian
   moves behind it on April 23
   (http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100423_iraq_sectarian_tensions_and_alsadrite_reemergence)
   Radical Iraqi Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr's movement has called on its
   armed wing, the Mehdi Army, to help the country's security forces protect
   its Shiite majority against militant attacks. Senior al-Sadrite leader
   Baha al-Araji criticized the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki
   for incompetence in failing to prevent recent bombings.
   ...
   In other words, the statement about reviving the al-Sadrite militia is not
   just about sectarian power struggles, but also intra-Shia power politics.
   At a higher level, talk of resuscitating the Mehdi Army could also be a
   signal from Iran - which is closely controlling the evolution of the
   al-Sadrite movement - to the United States that Washington must accept an
   Iranian-leaning Shiite-dominated Iraqi government or risk having its
   drawdown plans upset by sectarian warfare. At this preliminary stage, it
   is unclear whether the Mehdi Army will be re-activated - and if so, in
   what shape or form. But in the context of Iraqi government formation and
   the continuing U.S.-Iranian fight for Iraq, the development is key amidst
   growing sectarian tensions.
   Peter Zeihan wrote:

   how seriously do we take this bit:

   The source says Iran has decided to reactivate the Mahdi army. 

   Reginald Thompson wrote:

   PUBLICATION: analysis/background

   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: well-connected Arab journalist working for BBC,
   focused on Iraq
   SOURCE  Reliability :  C 
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

    

   Iran's answer to the new sanctions will begin in Iraq. The formation of a
   grand coalition between the State of Law Coalition and the Iraqi National
   Coalition is the first step in Iran's answer. Iran will complicate matters
   in Iraq for the US in a way that makes the redeployment of the US troops a
   daunting matter.

   The source says Iran has decided to reactivate the Mahdi army. He says he
   expects al-Qaeda's terror attacks in Iraq to resurge now that they have
   decided to escalate their pressure on their common US "enemy."  He does
   not expect Iraqi Shiites to start any military provocations of US troops
   in Iraq immediately. They want, nevertheless, to convince the US that this
   is a ready option for them. The source expects the political and security
   situation in Iraq to deteriorate. He says Iranian president mahmud
   Ahmadinejad has consolidated his power in Iran and has, in fact, assumed
   the operational prerogatives of Ayatollah Khamene

 --

 Emre Dogru

  

 STRATFOR

 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514

 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468

 emre.dogru@stratfor.com

 www.stratfor.com

    
</description>
    <date>2010-06-15 16:14:32</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-05 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1151790_re-insight-iran-iraq-us-iranian-response-to-sanctions-in.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1153672</id>
    <title>Re: TURKEY/ISRAEL - Gulen criticizes flotilla in WSJ interview
</title>
    <description>   It think this is going to take the turks by surprise. Kamran. Write to
   ibrahim and get his reaction.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 4 Jun 2010 13:57:41 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: TURKEY/ISRAEL - Gulen criticizes flotilla in WSJ interview
   NOte that he's very noticeably distancing his movment from the IHH
   On Jun 4, 2010, at 1:51 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     This should be repped.  
      
     From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On
     Behalf Of Bayless Parsley
     Sent: June-04-10 2:50 PM
     To: Analyst List
     Subject: TURKEY/ISRAEL - Gulen criticizes flotilla in WSJ interview
      
     Reclusive Turkish Imam Criticizes Gaza Flotilla
     http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704025304575284721280274694.html#printMode

     6/4/10

     By JOE LAURIA

     SAYLORSBURG, Pa.*Imam Fethullah Gu:len, a controversial and reclusive
     U.S. resident who is considered Turkey's most influential religious
     leader, criticized a Turkish-led flotilla for trying to deliver aid
     without Israel's consent.

     Speaking in his first interview with a U.S. news organization, Mr.
     Gu:len spoke of watching news coverage of Monday's deadly confrontation
     between Israeli commandos and Turkish aid group members as its flotilla
     approached Israel's sea blockade of Gaza. "What I saw was not pretty,"
     he said. "It was ugly."

     Mr. Gu:len said organizers' failure to seek accord with Israel before
     attempting to deliver aid "is a sign of defying authority, and will not
     lead to fruitful matters."

     Mr. Gu:len's views and influence within Turkey are under growing
     scrutiny now, as factions within the country battle to remold a
     democracy that is a key U.S. ally in the Middle East. The struggle, as
     many observers characterize it, pits the country's old-guard secularist
     and military establishment against Islamist-leaning government workers
     and ruling politicians who say they seek a more democratic and
     religiously tolerant Turkey. Mr. Gu:len inspires a swath of the latter
     camp, though the extent of his reach remains hotly disputed.

     His words of restraint come as many in Turkey gave flotilla members a
     hero's welcome after two days of detention in Israel. Prime Minister
     Recep Tayyip Erdogan of the ruling Justice and Development Party
     condemned Israel's moves as "bullying" and a "historic mistake."

     Mr. Gu:len said he had only recently heard of IHH, the Istanbul-based
     Islamic charity active in more than 100 countries that was a lead
     flotilla organizer. "It is not easy to say if they are politicized or
     not," he said. He said that when a charity organization linked with his
     movement wanted to help Gazans, he insisted they get Israel's
     permission. He added that assigning blame in the matter is best left to
     the United Nations.

     Mr. Gu:len has long cut a baffling figure, as critics and adherents have
     sparred over the nature of his influence in Turkey and the extent of his
     reach. Leading a visitor on Wednesday past his front corridor*adorned
     with a map of Turkey, a verse from the Quran and a photograph of a
     Turkish F-16 jet over the Bosphorus*he portrayed himself an apolitical
     teacher. "I do not consider myself someone who has followers," he said.
     More

         * Opinion: Turkey's Radical Drift
         * New Aid Ship Heads to Gaza
         * Israel Explores Easing Its Blockade of Gaza
         * Turkish Group Sees Victory in Martyrdom
         * Israel's Isolation Deepens
         * In Israel and Abroad, Raid Spurs Criticism of Military's Judgment
         * Aboard Marmara, Skirmish Turns Deadly
         * Complete Coverage: WSJ.com/Mideast 

     Born in eastern Turkey in 1941, Mr. Gu:len became a state-licensed imam
     at 17, after three years of formal education and studies with Sufi
     masters. In a Turkey largely under the sway of a military-secularist
     establishment, he built a national organization of Islamic study and
     boarding halls, gaining support of many wealthy Muslims but at times
     running afoul of the law.

     While in the U.S. in 1999 for medical treatment, he was charged in
     Turkey with attempting to create an Islamic state* anathema under
     Turkey's secularist constitution. He stayed in Pennsylvania, where he
     now lives on a 25-acre estate in the Pocono Mountains. Over the years,
     he said, he has left the estate twice.

     Mr. Gu:len preaches nonviolence, dialogue between Western and Muslim
     worlds, and an educational tradition that combines study of science and
     Islam. His newspaper columns, weekly Internet sermons and other messages
     have been collected into more than 60 books. His adherents number, by
     various estimates, three million to eight million.

     Followers have established hundreds of schools in more than 100
     countries and run an insurance company and an Islamic bank, Asya, that
     its 2008 annual report said had $5.2 billion in assets. They own
     Turkey's largest daily newspaper, Zaman; the magazine Aktion; a wire
     service; publishing companies; a radio station and the television
     network STV, according to Helen Rose Ebaugh, a University of Houston
     sociologist and author of "The Gu:len Movement." She says followers
     donate up to one-third of their income to independent Gu:len-linked
     foundations.

     Ms. Ebaugh said Mr. Gu:len doesn't sit on the boards of Asha bank nor
     any foundation or editorial boards of Gu:len-sympathetic magazines,
     newspapers or television stations. In the interview, the imam said he
     had no financial interest in any holdings.

     Mr. Gu:len's detractors see him as a cult-like leader whose empire aims
     to train an Islamic elite who will one day rebuild the Turkish state.
     Soner Cagaptay, a Gu:len critic who is a Turkey analyst at the
     Washington Institute for Near East Policy, says the Turkish police force
     may be largely influenced by the imam through Gu:len sympathizers in key
     positions*effectively creating a counterbalance to Turkey's powerful
     military, a secularist bastion.

     "I am not a leader of a faction or someone who would cause some state
     officials to follow me despite their official duties," Mr. Gu:len said
     in the interview.

     The U.S. has "immense ambivalence" about Mr. Gu:len, said Graham Fuller,
     an ex-Central Intelligence Agency officer who is a resident consultant
     at the Rand Corp. in British Columbia.

     "On the one hand they do perceive him as very moderate and doing many
     positive things," Mr. Fuller said. But Washington has long thrown its
     lot behind the secularist followers of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, he says,
     viewing them "as the only narrative to what Turkish politics is all
     about."

     The U.S. State Department declined to comment about Mr. Gu:len for this
     article.

     In 2007, U.S. Homeland Security moved to deny Mr. Gu:len
     permanent-resident status in the U.S., rejecting his claim of
     exceptional ability as an educator. "The record contains overwhelming
     evidence that plaintiff is primarily the leader of a large and
     influential religious and political movement with immense commercial
     holdings," the government wrote.

     Mr. Gu:len won on appeal after getting 29 letters of support, including
     one from Mr. Fuller.

     The imam disputed Homeland Security's characterization. He goes only so
     far as to provide guidance to those who ask, he said.

     The 2002 election of the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, opened a
     new era for Mr. Gu:len and those he inspires, given their common foe in
     the military-secularist establishment.

     The AKP says it has no political ties to Mr. Gu:len. The imam says
     critics have linked him, falsely, to Turkey's current and previous
     leaders. "I do not have and have never had any relationship with a
     movement that has political aspirations," he said. "I am just a Turkish
     citizen."

     Last month, Mr. Gu:len's followers founded the Assembly of Turkic
     American Federations in Washington, a lobbying and umbrella organization
     for some 180 local non-profit foundations around the U.S. involved in
     education and culture.

     An English-language Turkish newspaper reported that Mr. Gu:len has told
     his followers they couldn't visit him on his Poconos estate if they
     didn't first donate to their local congressman. Mr. Gulen denies making
     the remark.

     Mr. Gu:len said that for Muslims, benefiting their community is both an
     Islamic and humanitarian duty, and that he would be happy if those who
     respect him support their lawmakers in the name of democracy and
     humanitarianism.

     "I hear that some people in the United States consider Turkey as sitting
     at the epicenter of radicalism," Mr. Gu:len said. The new federation's
     lobbying would aim "to reflect through sincere, pro-dialog and
     open-minded people the true nature of Turkey's realities."

     Write to Joe Lauria at newseditor@wsj.com
</description>
    <date>2010-06-04 21:00:04</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-12 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1153672_re-turkey-israel-gulen-criticizes-flotilla-in-wsj-interview-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1153776</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - Turkey used UAVs during the Iraqi incursion [follow-up
	of discussion - Re: guidance on Turkey]
</title>
    <description>   he says Turkey doesn't need Israeli assistance to fly them. (thus, Israeli
   decision to pull UAV instructors is not damaging). but of course, Turks
   may need Israeli help to fix if there is a technical problem in UAVs.

   Reva Bhalla wrote:

     so this source is claiming that Turkey doesn't need Israeli assistance
     for the UAVs?
     On Jun 17, 2010, at 8:57 AM, Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

       ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
       SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Confederation source  - Sabah (pro-government)
       PUBLICATION: Yes
       SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
       ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
       DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
       SPECIAL HANDLING: None
       SOURCE HANDLER: Emre

       Source says UAVs took off from the UAV air base in Batman (a
       southeastern province of Turkey) and provided real-time intelligence
       to the Turkish army during Turkish commandos' incursion to the
       Northern Iraq yesterday. Turkish army's press release implies this as
       well [it says they watched the operation live.emre.] No idea on how
       many UAVs were sent to Iraq. Source thinks that Turkey has the
       necessary technical capability to fly these birds. [there were reports
       few weeks ago that UAVs bought from Israel were transferred to the UAV
       air base in Batman.emre]

       George Friedman wrote:

         On the uav's. They got them. They don't know how to use and maintain
         them. Its a problem.

         Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: Emre Dogru &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
         Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2010 10:49:39 -0500 (CDT)
         To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
         Subject: Re: guidance on Turkey
         Turks realized that the initial passion needs to be backed with
         actions and Turkey cannot easily do that now. Turkey keeps repeating
         that no military treaty was canceled. The biggest threat that I've
         seen so far is to decrease level of diplomatic ties, which is not
         much of a threat. This what creates fissure between Gulen and Akp,
         because Gulen does not want the relations detoriated only due to
         Erdogan's rhetoric, which they think mainly for domestic political
         reasons.
         Agree that Pkk is becoming an increasingly pressing issue (I can
         tell you how Erdogan is nervous about this and how he lashes out at
         every one) But Israel's decision to pull UAV instructors is not
         huge. It doesn't make Turkey looser. After all Turkey got six of
         them and will get remaining four. Turkey will be able to fly them,
         at worst with a little delay. Also, we don't know yet the extent to
         which UAVs would be effective against Pkk. Plus, Turkey relies on
         real time intel sharing with the us more than Israel. If Israel
         starts to lobby on the US to stop this mechanism, that would be the
         nightmare of Erdogan.
         Chp has a long way to go to gain on Akp for the moment. Their main
         criticism is gov's inability on Gaza and Akp knows this. Also, we
         have a const amendment package debate ahead, I am sure Erdogan has
         several scenarios for that. 

         Sent from my iPhone
         On Jun 16, 2010, at 17:38, George Friedman &lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
         wrote:

           The things I didn't want to write from the region.

           The Turks have taken a tremendous beating and the Israelis have
           come out in remarkably good position.  

           First, on the tactical side, the Israeli-Turkish intelligence
           sharing agreement required that the Turks screen the passengers on
           the ships.  This screening took place but the Israelis have now
           shown the Turks and others intelligence that the Turks either (1)
           failed to detect the intentions of a group of people in the
           flotilla or their backgrounds) (2) detected it and failed to tell
           either Israel or the United States or (3) intentionally deceived
           Israel. The passion of the first days has dissipated into internal
           feuding. Obviously the CHP is making headway against AKP, The
           Gulen-AKP squabble has shaken confidence in the movement, and
           there were some quiet comments that Devotoglu (still can't spell
           or pronounce his name) is a great man and intellectual but not up
           to power politics.  I certainly didn't have a chance to reach a
           judgment on this.  However, I got a clear sense of divisions in
           the AKP based on personalities, style and substance.  This is not
           deeper than the splits in any political party, but its there. The
           Israelis are happy as hell.  The avalanche hasn't materialized. An
           international inquiry isn't going to happen and the Turks have
           stopped demanding it, except pro forma.  The Turks have discovered
           that a propaganda coup works only when you can back it up with
           follow-on power and they just don't have that yet.

           Second, the Israelis hit them in the one place that really hurts,
           pulling trainers on UAVs.  Actually these trainers were operating
           against the PKK in recce.  The Israeli military relationship is
           not trivial for the Turks.  They are modernizing form a Cold War
           military to a modern net-centric force and they have invested
           heavily in Israeli equipment.  They urgently need this stuff to
           deal with PKK and losing these capabilities creates serious
           problems.  The issue here isn't a coup by the Army or such
           nonsense. It is that one of the things AKP must show is their
           vigor against the PKK.  This is a significant issue in Turkey and
           AKP can't put it on hold while they posture against the Israelis. 
           AKP can really lose the next election over PKK.  So, the Israeli
           move was a surgical strike against the AKP. This can, of course,
           be reversed and that is the point.  I met with the Israeli
           Ambassador to Azerbaijan and he laid out for me why this isn't the
           crisis it appeared and why countermeasures against Turkey really
           hurt.  We can expect resumption of training and assistance from
           the Israelis without announcement.

           Third, the Turks got totally hammered by the Egyptians.  They
           viewed Turkish policy as a direct attack on the Mubarak government
           and a threat to Egyptian national security.  The Egyptians were
           furious on two counts. First, the Turks didn't consult them.
           Second, the Turks didn't seem to be aware of Egypt's anti-Hamas
           policy or didn't care.  The logic of the Turkish position is that
           they move from this crisis to leadership in the Arab world.  They
           could do that, but they can't lead everyone. They need to make
           decisions on supporting Hamas and that involves alienating Egypt
           and Fatah.  They do NOT want to support Hezbollah, but they also
           don't want to break with them.  The Israelis are offering to end
           the Gaza blockade precisely because they know the Egyptians will
           do the heavy lifting for them on Hamas.  The Turkish policy on no
           enemies among their neighbors is unsupportable in the Arab world.
           Once you are involved, you will have enemies.  The core of their
           strategy is not to get deeply involved in such issues.  The logic
           of the flotilla was to get involved.  The divergent logics are
           causing a reboot in the Turkish government.  The flotilla issue is
           bleeding off while they calculate their moves.

           They are of course unhappy publicly with the U.S. rejection of
           their idea on nuclear weapons.  When pressed, they will admit they
           were in full consultation with the U.S., expected it and see this
           as a part of the negotiating process. The Turks have an odd
           naivete.  On one level they are completely sophisticated. On
           another, they seem to expect to be thanked for first efforts and
           are insulted when they aren't.  I think this has to do with
           Devotuglu who is really a theoretician more than an operator.  He
           has devoted followers who admire him deeply, but I think his
           brittleness and lack of forethought on what comes next may have
           hurt him.  

           The secular-religious shift is unbelievably rigid from the secular
           side. I had dinner with a physician whose father was a general,
           and there is no give in his position. He seemed serious about
           leaving Turkey and he believes AKP will lose the next elections. 
           I have no idea whether it will or not, but it seemed to me in
           several conversations that if AKP wins, that will create a crisis
           in the secular side much deeper than it is now.  There is a
           believe that AKP is a passing event.  If it proves not to be, that
           will be the critical point.  

           My read having gone through the region on the flotilla crisis is
           that his has not done anything to increase Arab unity, nor has it
           bought the Turks into a leadership role. More precisely, the Turks
           flinched when they saw the price that leadership would exact.  The
           Israelis have waged a superb propaganda campaign focusing on the
           attack on them and in Europe, a series of articles charging
           critics of Israel with anti-antisemitism, written by significant
           figures in Europe, has stemmed the hemorrhage.  Anti-Muslim and
           anti-Turkish feeling in  Europe is deeper than anti-Israeli
           feeling  among the public.  Intellectuals and others  of course 
           remain anti-Israeli, but they don't shape political life and the
           political leaders are not prepared to go too far with a
           pro-Turkish, pro-Arab policy.

           Obviously this could all flare up but my view was that the passion
           that was present in Turkey when I arrived was dissipated when I
           left, and that the government is starting to feel the costs of a
           break with Israel.  The Israelis will issue a scathing report on
           themselves, but only on the failure of planning.  Privately, they
           are telling the Turks that this crisis was, if not planned by
           them, their fault for failing to identify the demonstrators as
           they promised they would.  This is raising the issue in
           Turkey--very quietly--of whether this was planned (and therefore
           mishandled in the aftermath) or a mistake (in which case a failure
           in execution).  

           Certainly the sense of Turkish leadership for the Palestinians is
           no longer there.

           I will have other reports as I recover.
           -- 
           George Friedman
           Founder and CEO
           Stratfor
           700 Lavaca Street
           Suite 900
           Austin, Texas 78701
           Phone  512-744-4319
           Fax  512-744-4334

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-06-17 16:03:19</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1153776_re-insight-turkey-used-uavs-during-the-iraqi-incursion.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1154178</id>
    <title>discussion4 - econ/financial - lehman bros next to bite the dust
</title>
    <description>Lehman is down about 40% today as investors fear the imminent break up
of the iconic Wall st. i-bank.  They bet heavily on US mortgage backed
securities, and lost even more heavily (due to massive leverage).  There
are talks on of splitting into 2 entities, a "good" bank with salable
assets, and a "bad" bank that will sit there and hold the bag of
worthless subprime and alt-a backed MBS's and other shaky derivatives.

The questions now are:  1) will the implosion of lehman generate another
wave of counterparty risk to other banks who hold the other side of the
derivative contracts?  2) will the federal reserve step in and finance
the creation of the "bad" bank, much like they extended a nearly 30 bn
usd credit line to jp morgan to buy bear stearns?  3) and importantly,
what happens to the counterparties to the "BAD" bank when it finally
collapses?

there are a lot of worthless securities floating around out there,
propping up very large and very undeserved market capitalizations.  when
does the next round of credit losses hit?  lehman reports earnings sept.
16, so i smell a "deal" going down this weekend before the reportedly
giant ($3.9 bn is what i've heard) write down occurs at lehman.  watch
the breakup occur this weekend, with a panicky wave of investor flight
rippling through other financial houses.

other banks are in trouble too.  citigroup has been described by
insiders as a 'dead bank walking.'  washington mutual is also screwed.

thoughts?

-- 
Kevin R. Stech
Monitor/Researcher
STRATFOR
Ph: 512.744.4086
Em: kevin.stech@stratfor.com

_______________________________________________
Analysts mailing list

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</description>
    <date>2008-09-11 17:08:21</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2011-03-15 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1154178_discussion4-econ-financial-lehman-bros-next-to-bite-the-dust.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kevin.stech@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1160182</id>
    <title>[alpha] Jared Cohen (GOOGLE)
</title>
    <description>
** From a senior GOOGLE Exec reference Jared Cohen, global rabblerouser
and beatnik. 



Not that I'm aware of.  He heeded the advice to avoid Turkey and UAE and
didn't go on that trip



---------------------------------------

Is he playing a role in Libya?   Fred
</description>
    <date>2011-03-30 14:56:37</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-14 22:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1160182_-alpha-jared-cohen-google-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1160427</id>
    <title>[MESA] INDIA COUNTRY BRIEF 100507
</title>
    <description>                              INDIA COUNTRY BRIEF

   100507

                          Basic Political Developments

    

     o Six Naga MLAs in Manipur have resigned in protest against the state
       government disallowing NSCN(IM) General Secretary T Muivah to visit
       his ancestral village in the state.

    

     o The Supreme Court today ruled that state Governors cannot be changed
       arbitrarily with the change of the government at the Centre. A
       five-Judge constitution bench in their judgement noted that Governor
       of a state holds the office during the pleasure of the President and
       they cannot be removed merely on the grounds of being appointed by the
       previous government.

    

     o Uttar Pradesh government Friday ordered sacking of as many as 1,058
       doctors for "absconding" from duty. Principal Health Secretary Pradeep
       Shukla said the doctors were "absent from their duties for months and
       even years.

    

     o NSCN-IM leader T Muivah, camping at a border village since Wednesday,
       is understood to have put on hold his visit to his native village in
       Manipur after the Centre asked him to defer it and plan his tour in a
       more congenial atmosphere.

    

     o Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told the Lok Sabha Friday that the
       government will soon take a decision on caste-based census in the
       country.  The assurance came in the wake of pressure on the United
       Progressive Alliance (UPA) government to undertake a caste-based
       census.

    

     o Union government today introduced the controversial 'Civil Liability
       for Nuclear Damage Bill, 2010' in the Lok Sabha, which met with stiff
       resistance from the BJP and Left parties who after vitrolic comments
       staged a walk-out.

    

                            National Economic Trends

    

     o The revenue potential for the government from the ongoing 3G auctions
       crossed the Rs 45,000-crore mark on Thursday. The revenue includes the
       amount to be paid by state-owned telcos BSNL and MTNL after the
       auctions are concluded. The government has already allotted 3G
       spectrum to BSNL and MTNL.

    

     o The Rajya Sabha was informed today that India's milk production
       increased by over 17 per cent in the five years from fiscal 2004-05 to
       to 108.46 million tonnes in 2008-09.

    

    

          Business, Energy or Environmental regulations or discussions

    

     o A group of Air India unions today asked Civil Aviation Minister Praful
       Patel to fix the accountability on those who are "sabotaging" the
       airlines merger process and have led to a loss of Rs 18,000 crore in
       the last three years.

    

     o Gemini Communication on Friday said it has acquired African telecom
       and internet services provider Rosy Blue Wireless (RBW).

    

     o Jordan's Phosphate Mines Company, one of the world's largest phosphate
       suppliers, has awarded India's Afcons Infrastructure Limited a $240
       million contract to construct a new phosphate terminal.

    

     o Siemens Mobility has signed a contract with the Rapid Metro Rail
       Gurgaon (RMGL) to build a new metro line connecting Gurgaon Cyber City
       to Line 2 of the Delhi Metro (DMRC), via the connecting station of
       Sikanderpur.

    

     o Healthcare major Apollo Hospitals today announced the technical tie up
       with IT giant Cisco for providing Telemedicine services in the
       country. Telemedicine is a process through which patients can consult
       doctors located at very distant places through electronic mediums
       without visiting them.

    

     o World Steel Dynamics report has ranked state-owned steelmaker SAIL
       second in its list of world-class steelmakers, giving the company the
       right exposure ahead of its globalisation drive and its forthcoming
       public issue. Korean steelmaker Posco is ranked first.

    

     o Dalmia Cement today said Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR), the US-based
       private equity will be investing Rs 750 crore in the demerged cement
       entity of Dalmia Cement* Avnija. KKR will pick up a 15-20% stake in
       this entity.

    

     o ADAG Chairman Anil Ambani on Friday said his group had no immediate
       plans to seek review of the Supreme Court verdict that rejectedWhat
       are the cheap gas to group firm RNRL from Mukesh Ambani-led RIL.

    

     o Tata Tea on Thursday decided to change its name to Tata Global
       Beverages, to better reflect the group*s international standing and
       the array of products it sells under different categories.

    

     o The Export Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) on Friday said it is
       planning to raise Rs 24,000 crore during the current fiscal. Exim Bank
       executive director N Shankar said "We plan to borrow Rs 24,000 crore
       during this fiscal as against the Rs 20,266 crore in the previous
       fiscal."

    

     o Gold prices today spurted by Rs 495 to regain the Rs 18,000 per ten
       gram level after five months on heavy buying driven by a rally in
       overseas markets.

    

     o ICICI Bank on Friday claimed that it continues to be the second
       largest bank in the country in terms of total assets, which it
       described as a "relevant" measure for ranking.

           Activity in the Oil and Gas sector (including regulatory)

    

     o A top company official said GSPC Pipavav Power Company Limited (GPPC),
       plans to set up a 1,053 MW gas-fired combined cycle power plant
       project at Pipavav in Gujarat.

    

     o Union Power Minister Sushilkumar Shinde today said the Supreme Court
       upholding the government's right to approve price and utilisation of
       gas was a "fair decision" and it had no bearing on the gas supply
       dispute between NTPC and Reliance Industries.

    

     o The Supreme Court today rejected Anil Ambani group's plea for cheaper
       gas from Mukesh Ambani- led RIL on the basis of a family pact, saying
       the government had the soverign right on price and utilisation of
       fuel.

    

Militant Activity/Terrorism (Particularly in Bangalore, Mumbai, Noida, Chennai,
                                  Coimbatore)

    

     o Defence Spokesman Lt Col J S Brar said four militants and two Army
       jawans were killed in a gunbattle between the two sides in Baramulla
       district of North Kashmir this morning.

    

     o Rajya Sabha today witnessed a flutter over reports that BJP member
       Rajiv Pratap Rudy was facing a threat to his life from Maoists.
       Members from different parties including Congress demanded adequate
       security for Rudy.

    

     o Noting that Left wing extremists sometimes try to block development
       works, the Government today said the Maoists targeted steel plants,
       railways, panchayats and other infrastructure 105 times in the first
       four months of 2010 against 362 in the entire previous year.

    

                              Labor/Social Unrest

    

     o The situation in Manipur continued to be volatile for the second day
       Friday after three students were killed and about 70 injured in
       clashes between security forces and supporters of Naga separatist
       leader Thuingaleng Muivah.

    

                                   Full Text

                          Basic Political Developments

    

   Six Naga MLAs in Manipur resign

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/643301_Six-Naga-MLAs-in-Manipur-resign

   Imphal, May 7 (PTI) Six Naga MLAs in Manipur have resigned in protest
   against the state government disallowing NSCN(IM) General Secretary T
   Muivah to visit his ancestral village in the state.

    

   The MLAs, all independents, who were camping in Delhi, have sent their
   resignation letters to Speaker Budhi Singh by fax, assembly sources said
   today.

    

   The sources said the Speaker had received the resignation letters, but
   they have not been accepted so far.

    

   The legislators are Morung Mokunga (Tengnoupal), M Thohri (Mao),
   Wungnaoshing Keishing (Phungyar), K Raina (Tadubi), P Awangbou (Tamei) and
   Khasing Ruivah (Chingai).

    

   The MLAs said they wanted to resign their membership because Muivah was
   not welcome in Manipur by the people of the state.

    

   Governors cannot be changed with change of Central govt: SC

   http://news.webindia123.com/news/articles/India/20100507/1500667.html

   The Supreme Court today ruled that state Governors cannot be changed
   arbitrarily with the change of the government at the Centre.

    

   The petition was filed by former Uttar Pradesh DGP B P Singhal, who had
   challenged the removal of some Governors, when the United Progressive
   Alliance (UPA) came to power at the Centre.

    

   A five-Judge constitution bench comprising Chief Justice K G Balakrishnan
   and Justices S H Kapadia, R V Raveendran, B Sudershan Reddy and P
   Sathasivam in their judgement noted that Governor of a state holds the
   office during the pleasure of the President and they cannot be removed
   merely on the grounds of being appointed by the previous government.

    

   Mr Singhal, in his petition, had contended that it was unconstitutional to
   remove a Governor with the change of the government at the Centre.
   Governors too had a fixed tenure of five years, like the President and was
   the head of the state concerned.

    

   Mayawati government sacks over 1,000 doctors

   http://news.webindia123.com/news/articles/India/20100507/1500741.html

   Lucknow |Friday, 2010 6:05:08 PM IST

    The Uttar Pradesh government Friday ordered sacking of as many as 1,058
   doctors for "absconding" from duty.

    

   According to Principal Health Secretary Pradeep Shukla, the doctors were
   "absent from their duties for months and even years".

    

   "The decision to terminate their services was taken after we had made all
   efforts to get across to them," he said.

    

   The exercise to detect the errant doctors was initiated by the Mayawati
   government more than a year ago, following which notices were issued by
   the directorate of medical and health services to each of the defaulters.

    

   "When the notices failed to elicit any response from the doctors, the
   medical and health services director general got these notices published
   in different newspapers too; yet there was no response. Hence we resolved
   to take the final step of dismissing them," Shukla said.

    

   "Some of the doctors were found to have drawn salaries for months after
   they absconded from duty," he added.

    

   "The government is in the process of undertaking a recruitment drive to
   appoint 2,500 new doctors to meet the requirements of the state," Shukla
   said.

    

   Muivah defers visit to Manipur at PMO's request

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/643393_Muivah-defers-visit-to-Manipur-at-PMO-s-request

   Kohima/Imphal, May 7 (PTI) NSCN-IM leader T Muivah, camping at a border
   village since Wednesday, is understood to have put on hold his visit to
   his native village in Manipur after the Centre asked him to defer it and
   plan his tour in a more congenial atmosphere.

    

   "Since the PMO (Prime Minister's Office) has requested us to wait for
   things to settle down, we cannot disregard the request," senior NSCN-IM
   functionary Phungthing Shimrang said, adding Muivah was, however,
   determined to head for Somdal in Ukhrul district at any cost.

    

   "It is up to the government of India how fast it can handle the present
   situation and create a congenial situation for our general secretary to
   visit his native village without any hindrance," he told reporters.

    

   "Now the ball is in the government's court and we are waiting for its
   response," Phungthing said.

    

   Government's decision on caste-based census soon: PM

   http://www.newkerala.com/news/fullnews-103695.html

   New Delhi, May 7 : The government will soon take a decision on caste-based
   census in the country, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told the Lok Sabha
   Friday.

    

   Making a brief statement during a debate in the lower house, the prime
   minister said: "Home Minister (P. Chidambaram) has laid a detailed
   statement on the issue of Census 2011. I am aware of the views of
   honourable members belonging to all sections of the house. I assure you
   the cabinet will take a decision shortly."

    

   The assurance came in the wake of pressure on the United Progressive
   Alliance (UPA) government to undertake a caste-based census.

    

   The prime minister's statement mollified the opposition members who had
   forced adjournment of the house earlier after Chidambaram virtually ruled
   out inclusion of caste in the population count exercise.

    

   Replying to the debate, Chidambaram insisted that the main aim of the
   exercise was headcount and listed difficulties in including caste in the
   list.

    

   The members including those from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP),
   Samajwadi Party (SP) and Rashtriya Janata Dal, cutting across party lines,
   had been supporting the proposal arguing that data from such an exercise,
   particularly on other backward classes (OBCs), would help in planning
   welfare measures.

    

   Opposition MPs thanked the prime minister after his statement.

    

    

   BJP, Left walk-out on Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Bill

   http://www.newkerala.com/news/fullnews-103723.html

   New Delhi, May 7 : The government today introduced the controversial
   'Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Bill, 2010' in the Lok Sabha, which
   met with stiff resistance from the BJP and Left parties who after vitrolic
   comments staged a walk-out.

    

   The Bill was introduced by Minister of State in the Department of Atomic
   Energy Prithiviraj Chavan, but did not find favour with these Opposition
   parties.

    

   The Bill was, however, introduced by a voice vote.

    

   Parliamentary Affairs Minister Pawan Kumar Bansal clarified right at the
   beginning that as per the ruling by various speakers, the members can only
   go into the legality of the Bill. This point was also reiterated by Leader
   of the House Pranab Mukherjee.

    

   Mr Basudeb Acharia(CPI-M) described the proposed legislation as violative
   of Article 21 of the Constitution. He said according to the principles of
   law, it is always the polluter who pays, This was not the framework on
   which the Bill has been drafted.

    

   Mr Murli Manohar Joshi (BJP)said the legislation was violative of the
   Constitution and the relevant laws relating to environment, Mr Gurudas
   Dasgupta (CPI) said the Bill was in contradiction of several Supreme Court
   rulings and the Indian Constitution. ''We will oppose the Bill tooth and
   nail'', he said.

    

   Mr Ram Chandra Dome (CPI-M) described the Bill as "anti-people" and said
   it will be resisted at every stage.

    

   Mr Yashwant Sinha(BJP) said members have put forth new ideas, which have
   not been taken into account in the Bill brought forth in the House.

    

   Leader of the Opposition Sushma Swaraj said the government was adamant to
   bringing the legislation in the present form, though several views have
   been expressed relating to changes in the Bill.

    

   Mr Mukherjee described the opposition's resistance to the legislation as
   unwarranted and "obstructionist." After these remarks, the BJP and Left
   parties staged a walk-out.

                            National Economic Trends

   Govt may earn over Rs 45k cr from 3G bids

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/643195_Goldman-in-talks-with-SEC-for-possible-settlement

   7 May 2010, 0003 hrs IST,ET Bureau

    NEW DELHI: The revenue potential for the government from the ongoing 3G
   auctions crossed the Rs 45,000-crore mark on Thursday. The revenue
   includes the amount to be paid by state-owned telcos BSNL and MTNL after
   the auctions are concluded. The government has already allotted 3G
   spectrum to BSNL and MTNL.

    

   The pan-India bid price reached Rs 11,327.44 crore on Thursday, up 224%
   compared with the original base price of Rs 3,500 crore. With this, the
   revenue assured to the government shot up to Rs 45,691.66 crore. Telecom
   minister A Raja recently said that the revenues from the 3G and broadband
   wireless access (BWA) auction could go up to Rs 55,000.

    

   Mumbai and Delhi were the most sought after circles among the operators,
   with Mumbai recording the highest bid-price of Rs 1,986.69 crore, followed
   by Delhi with Rs 1,920.02 crore. The original bid price for both the
   circles was set at Rs 320 crore. Maharashtra came in third position with a
   bid price of Rs 1,062.15 crore. The Karnataka circle also crossed the Rs
   1,000 crore mark to reach Rs 1,072.51 crore on Thursday.

    

   Nine telecom operators in the country, including Bharti Airtel, Vodafone
   Essar, Reliance Communications and Tata Teleservices, are in race to
   acquire the 3G-service license across 22 circles in the country.

    

   The government is auctioning three slots of 3G airwaves in 17 telecom
   circles and four in the remaining five, including Punjab, West Bengal,
   Bihar, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu &amp; Kashmir. The bidding activity
   requirement was set at 100% on Thursday. The auction would continue till
   the available number of slots is equal to number of bidders in all 22
   circles simultaneously. The government has already concluded 132 rounds of
   auction in total.

    

   The auction for broadband wireless access (BWA) spectrum is expected to be
   as competitive with 11 players, more than 9 in case 3G, bidding for just
   two slots in 22 circles across the country. The BWA auction is slated to
   start after the conclusion of the 3G auctions. 

    

   India's milk production at 108.46 mn tons

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/643231_India-s-milk-production-at-108-46-mn-tons

   New Delhi, May 7 (PTI) India's milk production increased by over 17 per
   cent in the five years from fiscal 2004-05 to to 108.46 million tonnes in
   2008-09, the Rajya Sabha was informed today.

    

   Milk output in India, the world's largest milk producer, was 92.48 million
   tonnes in financial year 2004-05, Minister of State for Food and
   Agriculture K V Thomas informed the House a written reply.

    

   Uttar Pradesh was the largest producer during the five-year period,
   increasing its output by 18 per cent to 19.53 million tonnes in 2008-09,
   according to the data furnished in the reply.

    

   "By and large the production of milk in the country is sufficient to meet
   the domestic demand," Thomas said.

    

   When asked if there was milk scarcity in urban areas, he replied in the
   negative.

    

          Business, Energy or Environmental regulations or discussions

    

   'Fix accountability for sabotaging Air India merger'

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/642831_-Fix-accountability-for-sabotaging-Air-India-merger-

   New Delhi, May 7 (PTI) A group of Air India unions today asked Civil
   Aviation Minister Praful Patel to fix the accountability on those who are
   "sabotaging" the airlines merger process and have led to a loss of Rs
   18,000 crore in the last three years.

    

   Common Action Group (CAG), a group of unions of Air India?NACIL who have
   joined hands to save the national carrier, said that "accountability be
   fixed on those persons for sabotaging the merger process, propagating the
   rhetoric of de-merger and causing losses to the tune of Rs 18,000 crores."

    

   The CAG, in a statement, alleged that some anti-Air India (NACIL) lobbies
   comprised well-established people opposed to the merger of AI and Indian
   Airlines. The merger took place in 2007.

    

   Gemini Comm acquires African firm RBW

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/telecom/Gemini-Comm-acquires-African-firm-RBW/articleshow/5902654.cms

   7 May 2010, 1526 hrs IST,PTI

   MUMBAI: Gemini Communication on Friday said it has acquired African
   telecom and internet services provider Rosy Blue Wireless (RBW).

    

   RBW has presence in Zambia, Malawi and Mozambique. The company operates in
   these countries through joint ventures, where it holds 60 per cent stake
   and rest are held by local partners.

    

   The company, however, did not disclose the financial details of the deal.

    

   "This acquisition is an exciting step in our growth strategy and offers
   tremendous growth potential. We have close association with RBW and we
   look forward to develop similar collaborations with them in the African
   territories in future also," Gemini Communication MD Krishna B said in a
   filing to the Bombay Stock Exchange.

    

   The JVs of RBW are called Morse Communications and have been alloted WiMax
   spectrum license in these countries.

    

   "With this acquisition, Gemini will be expanding its lines of businesses
   into newer verticals as well," the company said in its statement to the
   Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).

    

   The entire WiMAX network rollouts will happen using Pointred Telecom's (a
   Gemini Communications subsidiary) WiMAX products. Pointred Telecom will
   tremendously benefit due to equipment orders being placed on them, it
   added.

    

   WiMAX is a wireless digital communications system, used for providing
   high-speed wireless internet access.

    

   Gemini Communication is a network integration and telecom services
   provider. 

    

   Afcons to build $240 mn Jordan terminal

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/transportation/airlines-/-aviation/Afcons-to-build-240-mn-Jordan-terminal/articleshow/5902260.cms

   7 May 2010, 1342 hrs IST,REUTERS

   AMMAN: Jordan's Phosphate Mines Company, one of the world's largest
   phosphate suppliers, has awarded India's Afcons Infrastructure Limited a
   $240 million contract to construct a new phosphate terminal, the Jordanian
   firm said on Thursday.

    

   The project, in the southern part of the Red Sea port city of Aqaba,
   involves building a four million tonne a year terminal as well as
   trucking, unloading and handling facilities and other marine terminal
   facilities.

    

   The export terminal will include a 280-metre long berth and the
   construction is expected to take 25.5 months to complete, Jordan Phosphate
   Mines Company (JPMC) chairman and CEO Walid al-Kurdi said in a statement.

    

   Financing of the project would come from a $110 million loan from the
   World Bank's International Finance Corporation (IFC) and the rest would be
   covered by the firm's internal sources, Kurdi said. The IFC loan would be
   repaid over nine years at an interest rate of 3.5 percent over LIBOR,
   company officials said.

    

   JPMC will manage the port under a 30-year concession from the Aqaba
   authorities. JPMC, which has joint ventures with Indian and Japanese firms
   with diversified downstream fertiliser operations, depends mainly on
   Shidiyah mine, in southern Jordan.

    

   Shidiyah, with its high grade phosphate, is easily the lowest cost
   producer in Jordan and holds 1 billion tonnes of the country's 1.5 billion
   tonnes of proven reserves. JPMC produces about 6 million tonnes of rock
   phosphate annually.

    

   It exports some and uses the rest at its fertiliser complex in Aqaba,
   which produces annually 320,000 tonnes of phosphoric acid, 630,000 tonnes
   of di-ammonium phosphate and 10,000 tonnes of aluminium fluoride.

    

   Lower prices and higher production costs have cut JPMC's profit margins
   despite steady demand in India, Japan and Asia, where growing populations
   and economic growth have led to more use of fertilisers to boost food
   output, company officials said.

    

   JPMC saw its net revenue from exports of fertilisers and phosphate fall a
   sharp 46 percent in 2009 to 458 million dinars ($645 mln) against the
   previous year. Last year's phosphate prices fell by almost half from 2008
   levels as the global recession took hold.

    

   Unlike many commodities whose prices are determined on futures exchanges,
   phosphate costs are negotiated directly between producers and industrial
   users. Brunei Investment Agency has a 37 percent stake in JPMC. Other
   major shareholders are Kuwait, which owns 9 percent, and Jordan's
   government pension fund which holds 16 percent. 

    

   Siemens inks pact with RMGL for Gurgaon metro

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/643281_Siemens-inks-pact-with-RMGL-for-Gurgaon-metro

   Mumbai, May 7 (PTI) Siemens Mobility has signed a contract with the Rapid
   Metro Rail Gurgaon (RMGL) to build a new metro line connecting Gurgaon
   Cyber City to Line 2 of the Delhi Metro (DMRC), via the connecting station
   of Sikanderpur.

    

   For this project, Siemens will implement total rail solutions, ranging
   from coaches and electrification to signaling and system integration, a
   press release issued here today stated.

    

   The project is scheduled to be commissioned by the end of 2012 and, once
   complete, the new 6.1-kilometre stretch will help commuters reduce their
   travel time significantly.

    

   For this project, Siemens will provide end-to-end rail solutions from a
   single source, besides five three-car metro coaches of aluminum design.
   The coaches will run on the standard-gauge elevated track at an average
   speed of 30 kilometres/hour.

    

   Apollo ties up with Cisco for telemedicine project

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/643251_Apollo-ties-up-with-Cisco-for-telemedicine-project

   New Delhi, May 7 (PTI) Healthcare major Apollo Hospitals today announced
   the technical tie up with IT giant Cisco for providing Telemedicine
   services in the country.

    

   Telemedicine is a process through which patients can consult doctors
   located at very distant places through electronic mediums without visiting
   them.

    

   "The alliance with Cisco will revolutionise the delivery of healthcare in
   India," Apollo Hospitals Group Executive Director Sangita Reddy told
   reporters here.

    

   As per the tie up, Cisco will provide its technological solutions, which
   including softwares and other hardware systems for integrating Apollo'
   hospitals, clinics and other institutes through high speed internet.

    

   Cisco's desktop based Healthpresence Extended Reach Technology will help
   doctors working in centres located in remote areas to consult specialists
   for providing better services to patients in these regions.

    

   Class Act: SAIL moves up to 2nd spot on the World Steel Dynamics list

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/indl-goods-/-svs/steel/Class-Act-SAIL-moves-up-to-2nd-spot-on-the-World-Steel-Dynamics-list/articleshow/5900652.cms

   7 May 2010, 0252 hrs IST,

    NEW DELHI: World Steel Dynamics, a leading steel information services
   provider, has ranked state-owned steelmaker SAIL second in its list of
   world-class steelmakers, giving the company the right exposure ahead of
   its globalisation drive and its forthcoming public issue.

    

   Korean steelmaker Posco is ranked first. The WSD ranking is based on a
   scores of 23 parameters that include size, expansion plan, adaptation of
   new technology and products, pricing power, raw material security, and
   labour and energy cost.

    

   SAIL was ranked 17th in 2007. *The acknowledgement of SAIL being a world
   class company is a big achievement considering it did not even figure in
   the WSD list a few years ago,* SAIL chairman S K Roongta told ET.

    

   SAIL has scored high on its strong balance sheet position, raw material
   security in terms of availability of iron ore mines, location in high
   growth markets, expansion plan and cost cutting efforts.

    

   Its performance on several of these parameters is better than world*s
   largest steelmaker ArcelorMittal and number one POSCO. Four others Indian
   steel companies also feature for the first time among the top 32 world
   steel companies. These include, Rashtriya Ispat Nigam (earlier Visag steel
   plant)* rank 30, Essar Steel (20), Tata Corus (10) and JSW Steel (7).

    

   Surprisingly, WSD*s ranking put ArcelorMittal on the 12th spot due to a
   drop in profit and its balance sheet, which was impacted during the
   meltdown. *The WSD ranking clearly brings out the point that steel
   companies in India and China would continue to perform better in wake of
   rising economic activities and a consistent increase in steel demand,* a
   steel analyst said.

    

   The European and American markets are yet to fully recover from the shocks
   of financial meltdown that saw steel companies cutting production by
   almost 50%.

    

   POSCO, with which SAIL has an alliance in India, got the numero uno
   position on the back of its investment in new technologies and skilled
   manpower.

    

   SAIL had become the most profitable steel entity globally in the first
   half of 2009 before. That time it left steel biggies such as
   ArcelorMittal, POSCO, Bao Steel, Nippon far behind.

    

   SAIL is currently in the midst of completing an ambitious expansion
   programme that involves investment of close to Rs 70,000 crore to increase
   hot metal capacity from 13 million tonne to 23.6 million tonne by 2012.
   This would put the company among the top three steel makers globally.

    

   It is also expected to tap the market by September this year with a public
   offer involving sale of 10% equity. The company has been permitted to
   offload 20% equity involving the government offloading 10% stake in the
   company and the steel PSU issuing fresh equity shares in the same
   proportion (10%), in two phases.

    

   The company is also looking to tap overseas market for building raw
   material security. It is scouting for acquisition opportunity of coking
   coal mines in Australia, Canada, Brazil and few African markets. 

    

   KKR buys 15-20% stake in Dalmia Cement for Rs 750 cr

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/indl-goods-/-svs/cement/KKR-buys-15-20-stake-in-Dalmia-Cement-for-Rs-750-cr/articleshow/5902832.cms

   7 May 2010, 1609 hrs IST,

    MUMBAI: Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR), the US-based private equity will
   be investing Rs 750 crore in the demerged cement entity of Dalmia Cement*
   Avnija. KKR will pick up a 15-20% stake in this entity. Dalmia Cement will
   officially announce the deal later today in Delhi.

    

   Earlier in March, the Rs 2,000-crore Dalmia Cement had declared spinning
   off its cement, power and refractory businesses and list it on the stock
   exchanges by the end of the year. The scrip today closed at Rs 259.45 in
   the Bombay Stock Exchange.

    

   With the boost given by the government to infrastructure projects, road
   networks and housing facilities, growth in cement consumption has been
   anticipated.

    

   Cement is the main money spinner of Dalmia Cement with a 70% share in
   revenue. It has a capacity of 9 million tonnes which makes it among the
   second largest player in the South. Sugar and refractory businesses
   generate 20% and 10%, respectively. 

    

   ADAG not to seek review of SC verdict on RIL-RNRL gas row

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/energy/oil--gas/ADAG-not-to-seek-review-of-SC-verdict-on-RIL-RNRL-gas-row/articleshow/5902687.cms

   7 May 2010, 1533 hrs IST,PTI

   NEW DELHI: ADAG Chairman Anil Ambani on Friday said his group had no
   immediate plans to seek review of the Supreme Court verdict that
   rejectedWhat are the cheap gas to group firm RNRL from Mukesh Ambani-led
   RIL.

    

   "RNRL looks forward to an expeditious and successful renegotiations with
   RIL within the stipulated period of six weeks to secure gas supply for the
   group's power plants in line with the Supreme Court order," Ambani told
   reporters shortly after the judgement.

    

   In the dispute, where RNRL sought gas at a concessional price of USD 2.34
   per mmBtu as against the government approved USD 4.20 per mmBtu, the
   Supreme Court said the government has the last word on pricing and usage.

    

   It also asked RIL and RNRL to renegotiate gas supply terms within six
   weeks.

    

   "RNRL has currently no plans to file a review petition in the Supreme
   Court," Ambani said.

    

   Anil Ambani, who left the court without taking any questions from
   reporters after the judgement was pronounced, said that the court has
   safeguarded the interests of 25 lakh shareholders of RNRL by issuing
   guidelines for expeditious finalisation of gas supply agreement.

    

   "By a majority judgement, the Supreme Court has upheld RNRL's case that
   the company petition filed by RNRL as maintainable and has upheld the
   powers of the court to modify the scheme and make it workable," he said.

    

   Ambani said that the apex court has also acknowledged that the June 18,
   2005 MoU was basis for the business reorganisation of RIL.

    

   "The court has also directed that suitable arrangements for gas supply
   should not only be suitable to RIL but also the shareholders of RNRL,
   whose interests have to be fully protected," he said.

    

   RNRL is seeking 28 mmscmd of gas from RIL's KG-D6 fields for group firm
   Reliance Power's proposed power plant in Dadri, Uttar Pradesh. 

    

   Tata Tea is now Tata Global Beverages

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/cons-products/food/Tata-Tea-is-now-Tata-Global-Beverages/articleshow/5900408.cms

   7 May 2010, 0037 hrs IST,ET Bureau

    MUMBAI: Tata Tea, a part of the Tata group, on Thursday decided to change
   its name to Tata Global Beverages, to better reflect the group*s
   international standing and the array of products it sells under different
   categories. The company, now earns more than 70% of its revenue outside
   India. The Tata Tea board approved the change in name which will now bring
   popular global brands such as Tetley, Eight O* Clock Coffee and other
   brands under Tata Global Beverages, even as the country*s largest tea
   company by sales makes the shift toward being a beverages player.

    

   *This demonstrates the group*s pride in its Tata parentage and heritage as
   well as an intention to build a new and strong global Tata brand,* said
   vice-chairman RK Krishna Kumar, while announcing the consolidation of
   company*s various beverages brands. The over $1 billion Tata Tea plans to
   take shareholder*s approval for the change in name through a postal
   ballot.

    

   The salt-to-telecom Tata group has been spearheading a series of outbound
   acquisitions from India, starting with the high profile takeover of tea
   firm Tetley by Tata Tea in 1999, and following it up with buys such as
   Corus and Jaguar Land Rover in 2007 and 2008, respectively.

    

   The group has carved separate companies under the Tata Global brand name,
   specifying the industry name as an initial step to creating multinational
   businesses. Following the operational integration of its five beverage
   businesses last year, Tata Global Beverages will unite all beverage
   interests. Current brand names will remain for its products, the company
   said.

    

   Earlier, in March 2009, ET had reported that Tata Tea is taking steps to
   transform into a global beverages company, focusing primarily on the
   growing health and wellness segment and with youth as a major driver.
   While the traditional black tea market has been sluggish, markets for
   speciality tea, green tea, ready-to drinks and fruit juices have been
   growing sharply.

    

   Early April, Tata Tea signed a joint venture agreement with US-based
   PepsiCo for non-carbonated drinks business, and for developing and
   marketing beverages for Indian consumers on health and wellness platform.

    

   *This development will create multiplier effect where, combine entity will
   give them power globally to deal with modern retail trade in a better
   way,* says Shirish Pardeshi, senior analyst at Anand Rathi Securities. *On
   the other hand, this consolidated company can reduce the cost at various
   levels.* Tata Tea has a global presence through its offices in Asia,
   Africa, Europe, the US, Canada and South America and the Asia-Pacific and
   has 2,920 employees. 

    

   Exim Bank to raise Rs 24,000 cr in FY11

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/banking/finance/banking/Exim-Bank-to-raise-Rs-24000-cr-in-FY11/articleshow/5903103.cms

   7 May 2010, 1707 hrs IST,PTI

   MUMBAI: The Export Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) on Friday said it is
   planning to raise Rs 24,000 crore during the current fiscal.

    

   "We plan to borrow Rs 24,000 crore during this fiscal as against the Rs
   20,266 crore in the previous fiscal," Exim Bank executive director N
   Shankar told reporters here today.

    

   During the past fiscal, the bank had raised Rs 20,266 crore comprising
   rupee resources of Rs 13,037 crore and foreign currency resources worth
   USD 1.61 billion.

    

   In FY10, the bank received Rs 300 crore from the government taking its
   paid-up capital to Rs 1,700 crore. The government would be infusing an
   additional Rs 300 crore into the bank during the current fiscal, he said.

    

   On the financial performance of the bank during the past fiscal, Shankar
   said net profit jumped by 8 per cent to Rs 513 crore against Rs 477 crore
   the previous fiscal. During the year, the bank made a net provision of Rs
   259 crore towards income tax as against Rs 133 crore in FY09.

    

   Its loan assets increased 14 per cent to Rs 39,371 crore during the year
   up from Rs 34,505 crore in FY09, he said.

    

   It approved loans worth Rs 38,843 crore during FY10 against Rs 33,628
   crore in FY09. Total disbursements of the bank in FY10 was Rs 33,249 crore
   compared to Rs 28,933 crore in the previous fiscal.

    

   The net NPAs of the bank decreased to 0.20 per cent of net loan assets as
   on March 31 compared to 0.23 per cent in the previous year. During the
   year, the bank extended 22 lines of credit, aggregating USD 753.31 million
   and covering 20 countries to support export.

    

   During the year, the bank supported project contracts amounting to Rs
   13,993 crore and the contracts were secured by 13 companies in 12
   countries.

    

   The bank opened its representative office in Chandigarh to serve companies
   in the Northwestern region. The bank also plans to open an office in
   Africa this year, Shankar said. 

    

   Gold prices skyrocket by Rs 495 to five-month high

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/643315_Gold-prices-skyrocket-by-Rs-495-to-five-month-high

   New Delhi, May 7 (PTI) Gold prices today spurted by Rs 495 to regain the
   Rs 18,000 per ten gram level after five months on heavy buying driven by a
   rally in overseas markets.

    

   Standard gold surged by Rs 495 to Rs 18,110 per ten gram, a level last
   seen on November 26, 2009.

    

   Silver also jumped Rs 565 to Rs 28,165 per kg on increased offtake by
   industrial units and coin makers.

    

   Marketmen said trading sentiment remained firm as gold climbed in overseas
   markets on stronger demand for the alternative investment as currencies
   weakened and equities dropped.

    

   Gold in global markets, which normally set the price trend on the domestic
   front, recorded a handsome rally of 33.20 dollars to 1,208.80 dollars an
   ounce last evening.

    

   ICICI says it is still the 2nd largest bank

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/banking/finance/banking/ICICI-says-it-is-still-the-2nd-largest-bank/articleshow/5902993.cms

   7 May 2010, 1643 hrs IST,PTI

   NEW DELHI: Private sector lender ICICI Bank on Friday claimed that it
   continues to be the second largest bank in the country in terms of total
   assets, which it described as a "relevant" measure for ranking.

    

   The statement came in the wake of state-run Punjab National Bank (PNB)
   declaring its total business, comprising total deposits and loans, worth
   over Rs 4,35,000 crore for fiscal 2009-10, which is higher than the total
   business of ICICI Bank at Rs 3,83,223 crore for the same fiscal.

    

   "ICICI Bank continues to be the second largest bank in the country by
   assets. The total book-size of the bank at March 31, 2010, was Rs 3,63,400
   crore," ICICI Bank spokesperson Rahul Virkar said in a statement.

    

   The total assets of state-run Punjab National Bank (PNB) is Rs 2,96,643
   crore, ICICI Bank said in the statement.

    

   "In terms of balance sheet size, ICICI Bank is larger, since banks extend
   loans as well as make investments. Hence, for defining 'second largest
   lender' it is assets which are relevant (rather than advances and
   deposits)," ICICI said. 

    

           Activity in the Oil and Gas sector (including regulatory)

    

   GPPC plans Rs 2,545 cr gas-based power plant at Pipavav in Guj

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/energy/power/GPPC-plans-Rs-2545-cr-gas-based-power-plant-at-Pipavav-in-Guj/articleshow/5902489.cms

   7 May 2010, 1441 hrs IST,PTI

    MUMBAI: GSPC Pipavav Power Company Limited (GPPC), plans to set up a
   1,053 MW gas-fired combined cycle power plant project at Pipavav in
   Gujarat, a top company official said.

    

   GPPC is a a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) set up by GSPC (Gujarat State
   Petroleum Corporation) along with GPCL (Gujarat Power Corporation Ltd) to
   implement a power project catering to energy requirements in Gujarat.

    

   "We are planning to set up a gas-based combined cycle power plant project
   in Gujarat. The first phase envisages the construction of two 351-MW
   gas-based power plant," GSPC's Managing Director, Tapan Roy, told here
   today.

    

   The first 351-MW unit is scheduled to be commissioned in December 2010 and
   the second unit by March 2011, Roy said, adding the second phase of the
   project envisages expanding the capacity of the power plant by another 351
   MW.

    

   The project cost is estimated at Rs 2,545 crore that would be funded
   through 20 per cent of equity and 80 per cent of debt. However, the debt
   requirement to the extent of Rs 1,935 crore has been tied-up by Rural
   Electrification (REC).

    

   The equity infusion would be carried out in the ratio 34 per cent, 17 per
   cent and 49 per cent between GSPC, GPCL and third-party investor, Swan
   Energy, respectively, he said.

    

   GPPC has appointed Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) as the EPC
   contractor through international competitive bidding (ICB) route and the
   Notice to Proceed (NTP) was handed in March 2008, Roy said. 

    

   'RIL-RNRL verdict has no bearing on NTPC case'

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/643146_-RIL-RNRL-verdict-has-no-bearing-on-NTPC-case-

   New Delhi, May 7 (PTI) Power Minister Sushilkumar Shinde today said the
   Supreme Court upholding the government's right to approve price and
   utilisation of gas was a "fair decision" and it had no bearing on the gas
   supply dispute between NTPC and Reliance Industries.

    

   "It has nothing to do with RIL-NTPC case," he said shortly after a
   three-judge bench of the apex court ruled that private family agreements
   cannot over-ride the government's right under Production Sharing Contract
   (PSC) to approve price and fix users of gas.

    

   Supreme Court had ruled that Anil Ambani Group's Reliance Natural
   Resources Ltd cannot claim gas at concessional rate of 2.34 per million
   British thermal unit from RIL.

    

   The rate RNRL is claiming is the same that RIL had bid in a 2004 NTPC
   tender to supply 12 million standard cubic meters per day of gas to the
   state utility.

    

    

   Govt word final; no cheap gas for ADAG from RIL: SC

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/643267_Govt-word-final--no-cheap-gas-for-ADAG-from-RIL--SC

   New Delhi, May 7 (PTI) The Supreme Court today rejected Anil Ambani
   group's plea for cheaper gas from Mukesh Ambani- led RIL on the basis of a
   family pact, saying the government had the soverign right on price and
   utilisation of fuel.

    

   A three-judge bench headed by Chief Justice K G Balakrishnan, who demits
   office on May 11, said that the Ambani family MoU that seeks to divide gas
   between group firms of the two brothers was not binding, both legally as
   well as technically.

    

   The MoU is part of the Ambani family settlement reached in June 2005 for
   dividing the Reliance empire between Mukesh and his younger brother Anil.

Militant Activity/Terrorism (Particularly in Bangalore, Mumbai, Noida, Chennai,
                                  Coimbatore)

    

   Four militants and 2 army jawans killed in encounter

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/642786_Four-militants-and-2-army-jawans-killed-in-encounter

   Srinagar, May 7 (PTI) Four militants and two Army jawans were killed in a
   gunbattle between the two sides in Baramulla district of North Kashmir
   this morning.

    

   Acting on a tip off, Army cordoned Rafiabad village, 65 km from here, in
   the wee hours, Defence Spokesman Lt Col J S Brar said.

    

   He said as the search party reached the house where the militants were
   hiding, the ultras opened fire and in the ensuing gunbattle four militants
   and two jawans were killed.

    

   The gunbattle was going on when last reports came in.

    

   BJP MP facing threat to life from Maoists

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/643040_BJP-MP-facing-threat-to-life-from-Maoists

   New Delhi, May 7 (PTI) Rajya Sabha today witnessed a flutter over reports
   that BJP member Rajiv Pratap Rudy was facing a threat to his life from
   Maoists.

    

   Members from different parties including Congress demanded adequate
   security for Rudy.

    

   Raising the issue in a special mention, S S Ahluwalia (BJP) said a map of
   Rudy's house in Vasantpur village in Chapra district of Bihar was
   recovered from an arrested 'Area Commander' of CPI-Maoist, who wanted to
   blow the MP's house.

    

   Terming it "an attempt to stifle" the voice of those taking a stand
   against Maoists, Ahluwalia demanded that Rudy's house should be provided
   adequate security.

    

   P J Kurien (Congress) joined the issue saying the entire House associates
   with the concern as the issue was above party politics.

    

   Deputy Chairman K Rahman Khan said Rudy has written a letter to the
   Chairman in this regard.

    

   'Left wing extremists do not spare development work'

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/643505_-Left-wing-extremists-do-not-spare-development-work-

   New Delhi, May 7 (PTI) Noting that Left wing extremists sometimes try to
   block development works, the Government today said the ultras targeted
   steel plants, railways, panchayats and other infrastructure 105 times in
   the first four months of 2010 against 362 in the entire previous year.

    

   "Efforts are sometimes made by Left wing extremists to prevent execution
   and implementation of development works," Minister of State for Finance
   Namo Narain Meena told the Lok Sabha in a written reply.

    

   According to data given by him, these extremists targeted economic works
   182 times in 2008.

    

   Forest buildings, roads, culverts bore the brunt of their activities.
   There were 36 incidents of ultras targeting them up to April 30 this year,
   126 in the entire last year and 41 in 2008, the minister said.

                              Labor/Social Unrest

    

   Tension continues in Manipur           

   http://in.news.yahoo.com/43/20100507/812/tnl-tension-continues-in-manipur_1.html

   Fri, May 7 12:15 PM

   Imphal, May 7 (IANS) The situation in Manipur continued to be volatile for
   the second day Friday after three students were killed and about 70
   injured in clashes between security forces and supporters of Naga
   separatist leader Thuingaleng Muivah.

    

   More than 5,000 Nagas had Thursday gathered at Mao, the border town
   between the two adjoining states of Nagaland and Manipur, to welcome
   Muivah, the general secretary of the National Socialist Council of
   Nagaland (NSCN).

    

   Muivah deferred his visit to his birthplace in Ukhrul district, about 220
   km from Mao, following mounting tension after security forces opened fire
   on his supporters, burst tear gas canisters, and baton charged the mob in
   an attempt to disperse them.

    

   A large number of police and paramilitary troopers are still deployed at
   the Mao area with protestors continuing to build up pressure on the
   government to allow Muivah to visit his birthplace.

    

   'The situation remains tense and so we have deployed security forces in
   strength to prevent any untoward incidents,' a police official said.

    

   Three students were killed in police firing Thursday - Loshua and Chakho,
   both graduate students, and Lokho, a postgraduate student.

    

   'This is nothing but state-sponsored terrorism and unprovoked suppression
   of democratic protest. We have declared all the three students as
   martyrs,' the NSCN-Isak Muivah (NSCN-IM) said in a statement Friday.

    

   The Manipur government had earlier decided against allowing Muivah to
   visit the state. 'Under no circumstances shall the government allow Muivah
   to visit Manipur,' a government spokesperson said.

    

   The NSCN-IM is operating a ceasefire with New Delhi since 1997 with the
   two sides holding close to 60 rounds of peace talks aimed at ending one of
   India's longest running insurgencies.

    

   The Manipur government maintains the ceasefire with the NSCN-IM does not
   extend beyond Nagaland and hence Muivah's visit to Manipur was not
   acceptable.

    

   The NSCN-IM had earlier demanded that all Naga-inhabited areas in the
   northeast, including Manipur, be integrated by slicing off parts of three
   neighbouring states to unite 1.2 million Nagas and create a Greater
   Nagaland.

    

   The demand is strongly opposed by the states of Assam, Manipur and
   Arunachal Pradesh.

    

   A police spokesperson said several areas in Manipur's Senapati district,
   dominated by Nagas, have blocked the highway by resorting to sit-in
   protests leading to disruption in road communication between Manipur and
   the rest of the country.

    

   'I will surely visit by birthplace,' Muivah told journalists Friday.

    

   Six independent legislators, all tribal Nagas, resigned Thursday from the
   Manipur assembly protesting against the state government's decision to
   block Muivah's visit to his birthplace.

    

   The Nagaland government is in favour of Muivah visiting his birthplace,
   with Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio lobbying in New Delhi.

    

   The violent insurgency in Nagaland has claimed around 25,000 lives since
   the country's independence in 1947.

    

    

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2010-05-07 15:42:56</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-11 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1160427_-mesa-india-country-brief-100507-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>os@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mesa@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:mesa@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>animeshroul@gmail.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1162055</id>
    <title>Re: Individual summaries- russia spying
</title>
    <description>Colby &amp; Sean - Good work

Sean Noonan wrote:
&gt; Juan Lazaro/ Vicky Palaez  (Yonkers, NY)
&gt;      -First indication of FBI surveillance:
&gt;                     January 14, 2000 travel to unknown South American
&gt; country. 
&gt;      -Contacts:
&gt;                   Russian Government Official #1, who is a verified RGO
&gt; in the South American country
&gt;                   Seem to have only passed information when in South
&gt; America, but unclear 
&gt;                    (FBI had telephone intercepts, but not clear with
&gt; who, seems to be between the two)
&gt;     -Travel Abroad:
&gt;           -Palaez to South America 1/14/2000 met unknownâ€œindividualâ€ in
&gt; Public Park (same as first surveillance)
&gt;           -Palaez to South America February 20, 2002 met unknown
&gt; â€œindividualâ€ in Public Park
&gt;            -Palaez to South America January 8, 2003 to South America, no
&gt; info on who she met or where
&gt;            -Lazaro to South America August 25, 2007 met with Russian
&gt; Govâ€™t Official (confirmed)
&gt; 
&gt; Richard Murphy and Cynthia Murphy  (Hoboken, Montclair NJ)
&gt;     -First indication of FBI surveillance:
&gt;                     Richard Murphy began meeting Metsos Feb 24, 2001
&gt; (first details of one of these meetings is 3/31/2002)
&gt;     -Contacts-
&gt;                  Christopher R. Metsos in 2004
&gt;                  Michael Zottoli  (Patricia Mills was present) 2004, 2009
&gt;                  Russian Government Official #3 (3rd Secretary in
&gt; Russia's Mission to UN in NY)
&gt;                 Electonic Communication with Moscow
&gt;     -Travel Abroad:
&gt;                 Richard Murphy traveled to Moscow via Italy February 21,
&gt; 2010 , returned March 5, 2010
&gt; 
&gt; Michael Zottoli and Patricia Mills  (Seattle, Arlington
&gt;     -First indication of FBI surveillance:
&gt;                 -June 19, 2004 meeting with Murphy
&gt;     -Contacts
&gt;              -Richard Murphy
&gt;              Electronic Communication with Moscow
&gt;     -Travel abroad  
&gt;           -None listed
&gt; 
&gt; Christopher R. Metsos (Who was arrested with reversed first/middle
&gt; name)  unknown residence
&gt;     -First indication of FBI surveillance:
&gt;            -Metsos began meeting Murphy at a restaurant Feb 24, 2001
&gt; (first details of one of these meetings is 3/31/2002)
&gt;     Contacts:
&gt;              Richard Murphy
&gt;              Russiang Government Official #2  (Second Secretary in
&gt; Russian Mission to UN, NY),  2004 brush pass
&gt;     Travel:
&gt;           Unknown, believed to have lived in Canada
&gt;           Arrested in Cyprus at 3am June 28 boarding flight Budapest,
&gt; had been in Cyprus from June 17
&gt;         
&gt; (Listed in Cypriot news as: Robert Christopher Metsos, 55)
&gt; 
&gt; Donald Howard Heathfield and Tracey Lee Ann Foley  (Cambridge, Mass)
&gt;         -First indication of FBI surveillance:
&gt;                 -FBI searches safe deposit box listed under their names
&gt; Jan 23, 2001
&gt;        Contacts
&gt;              Electronic Communication with Moscow
&gt;         Travel
&gt;                 Foley travels to Moscow via Paris on March, 2010
&gt;          
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; -- 
&gt; 
&gt; Sean Noonan
&gt; 
&gt; Tactical Analyst
&gt; 
&gt; Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt; 
&gt; Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt; 
&gt; Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt; 
&gt; www.stratfor.com
&gt; 
</description>
    <date>2010-06-29 21:47:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-14 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1162055_re-individual-summaries-russia-spying-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1162925</id>
    <title>Re: Comrade J (CJ)
</title>
    <description>Will ask, I don't know.

Sean Noonan wrote:
&gt; 911 call was at 7:08pm, why did they report that he died in the morning?
&gt; 
&gt; Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt; According to JJ Green at WTOP (pls protect the sourcing) CJ had high
&gt;&gt; cholesterol, high blood pressure and suffered from seasonal allergies
&gt;&gt; (pollen).  He had lost weight, but his entertainment patio looked like a
&gt;&gt; Georgetown bar.  Green said CJ drank wine at lunch, but did not appear
&gt;&gt; to be a heavy drinker in his company.  The wife will continue to provide
&gt;&gt; exclusive interviews with Green, which has pissed off Pete Earley the
&gt;&gt; author of the book.  If we have any questions for the wife, pls let me
&gt;&gt; know.  Thanks
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;   
&gt; 
&gt; -- 
&gt; 
&gt; Sean Noonan
&gt; 
&gt; Tactical Analyst
&gt; 
&gt; Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt; 
&gt; Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt; 
&gt; Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt; 
&gt; www.stratfor.com
&gt; 
</description>
    <date>2010-07-14 21:22:17</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1162925_re-comrade-j-cj-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1164190</id>
    <title>GOOGLE Loose Canon Bound for Turkey &amp; UAE (SENSITIVE - DO NOT FORWARD)
</title>
    <description>** A  note from a senior GOOGLE Exec.  Pls protect the origin.  The msg
pertains to Jared Cohen's plans to travel to Turkey and UAE, on the
heals of his antics in Egypt and Tunisia.  As you can see, there are
folks @ GOOGLE not happy w/his actions.....

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


I'm committed to helping Jared do his job and making Google an active
participant in the four priority areas for Google Ideas.  We do have
concerns regarding his travel there.  Right now Jared is a lightning rod
(said lovingly).  His "baggage" as a U.S. State Dept policymaker, his
research and publications on Muslim extremists and youth movements and
his presence in Egypt just as the uprising started presents a unique
convergence.   

I'd put them in several buckets:

   1. Following Egypt and the "baggage" Jared carries his engagement
      with people in the youth movements focused on Iran may be viewed
      as an instigator.  There is potential risk to Google's brand and
      each situation further perpetuates the image of Jared as a spy or
      agent of the U.S (or Israeli) Gov't. He will be receiving a lot of
      attention around the "Formers" event just as he will make this
      trip so his profile will be very high.
   2. There is a possibility, although we believe small right now, that
      Jared could get detained by one of the governments who sees him as
      a threat to their power and stability. 
   3. There is potential for harm to the people who meet with Jared.
      While the location of the meeting is outside Iran we should not
      discount the extent of surveillance and data gathering efforts by
      those regimes.  The identification of Jared's associates may
      result in detainment of them or their families.  

Our recommendation is that Jared take a lower profile on this specific
trip and let time pass before being visible and associated with people
known by their states to be active in challenging repressive societies.
 We can talk Friday by phone if that's convenient. 
</description>
    <date>2011-03-10 16:52:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-14 22:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1164190_google-loose-canon-bound-for-turkey-and-uae-sensitive-do-not.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1166525</id>
    <title>RE: Comrade J on Polish Plane Crash
</title>
    <description>   Yeah, and Putin even farted the fog first to make it all fall in line.

    

    

    

    

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, April 22, 2010 8:16 PM
   To: Marko Papic
   Cc: 'Secure List'
   Subject: Re: Comrade J on Polish Plane Crash

    

   Interesting

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;

   Date: Thu, 22 Apr 2010 16:55:53 -0600

   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;

   Cc: 'Secure List'&lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;

   Subject: Re: Comrade J on Polish Plane Crash

    

   This was actually one of the theories that one of my contacts also gave
   me. But the intention was not to kill Kacynzki, just make his life
   difficult by forcing him to land in Minsk and therefore miss the Katyn
   Massacre ceremonies set to begin in an hour from landing. But instead, the
   pilots tried to land anyways and crashed the flight.

   Fred Burton wrote:

   The Russians purposefully denied the aircraft the ability to land knowing
   that the Polish President would either force the pilot to land based upon
   their own leadership analysis collection of the President's m.o.; or the
   plane would return and not land at the location. 

    

   He claims purposeful act.  His words not mine. 

    

   Reportedly, the Russians have similar plans (scenarios) for other foreign
   leaders that can be pulled off the shelf if desired by Putin/FSB.

    

   Follow up questions welcomed. 

    

    

    

    

 --

  

 Marko Papic

  

 STRATFOR

 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900

 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A

 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094

 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334

 marko.papic@stratfor.com

 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-04-23 02:40:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1166525_re-comrade-j-on-polish-plane-crash-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1167894</id>
    <title>London surveillance &amp; Russian Spies
</title>
    <description>   not for pub
    
   There is on-going aQ surveillance of several high-profile targets in
   London to include MI5, Scotland Yard and SIS Hqs; impacting on London
   links to the Russian spy round up on U.S. soil.   MI5 is strapped to the
   breaking point in looking at hadji running loose planning attacks and have
   reduced surveillance coverage's of Russian IO's (both known and suspected)
   inside the UK. 
    
   "The candle is burning at both ends" was the qoute. 
    
    
</description>
    <date>2010-07-07 04:14:57</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-16 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1167894_london-surveillance-and-russian-spies-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1168958</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] contradictory quotes about tretyakov autopsy
</title>
    <description>   This July 26 date might be for public release--rather than the FBI and
   Yelena's view of it.  We really don't know. 
   We are waiting for a recording of the 911 call.  There a number of ways to
   kill people that don't show up in an autopsy. 

   And while Tretyakov wasn't in WITSEC, the FBI (and CIA presumably) are
   going to be afraid of being publicly held partly responsible for his
   death, if it was foulplay. 

   All that said, a suspicious death would trigger what happened over the
   last few weeks, even if they now know it was natural causes.

   Colby Martin wrote:

     Below are the two contradictory quotes

     &gt;From Pete Early blog:
     http://www.peteearley.com/blog/2010/07/09/sergei-tretyakov-comrade-j-has-died/
     Helen asked those of us who were his friends to not immediately reveal
     his death until an autopsy could be performed under the supervision of
     the FBI. She was concerned that Sergei's former colleagues in Russia's
     SVR, which replaced the KGB as Russia's foreign intelligence service,
     might attempt to use his unexpected death for propaganda purposes.
     That autopsy has now been completed and it showed no evidence of foul
     play, according to an FBI official who spoke to me off-the-record.

     &gt;From article: Former top Russian spy Sergei Tretyakov dies at 53
     http://www.svherald.com/content/associatedpress/former-top-russian-spy-sergei-tretyakov-dies-53
     The medical examiner's office in Sarasota County, Fla., is conducting an
     autopsy on Tretyakov. A woman who answered the phone at the office said
     it would be completed sometime after July 26.

     -------- Original Message --------

      Subject: Author of Comrade J on Tretyakov's death                       
         Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2010 10:11:42 -0500                                
         From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;                         
     Reply-To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;                           
           To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;, The OS List              
               &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;, Tactical &lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;            

     http://www.peteearley.com/blog/2010/07/09/sergei-tretyakov-comrade-j-has-died/

     Sergei Tretyakov, Comrade J, has died.
     Published by Pete on July 9, 2010 in Books and Personal.
     I am sorry to announce that my good friend, Sergei Tretyakov, the
     subject of my book, Comrade J: The Untold Secrets of Russia's Master Spy
     in America After the End of the Cold War, died unexpectedly on June 13th
     in his home with his wife, Helen.
     Sergei was 53.
     Helen asked those of us who were his friends to not immediately reveal
     his death until an autopsy could be performed under the supervision of
     the FBI. She was concerned that Sergei's former colleagues in Russia's
     SVR, which replaced the KGB as Russia's foreign intelligence service,
     might attempt to use his unexpected death for propaganda purposes.
     That autopsy has now been completed and it showed no evidence of foul
     play, according to an FBI official who spoke to me off-the-record. Helen
     said her husband died from massive cardiac arrest.
     In keeping with Russian Orthodox religious traditions, a private funeral
     was held on the third day after his death. On the ninth day, more than
     200 people attended a private celebration of his life. The guests
     included close friends, neighbors and persons who had worked with him in
     the United States.
     Sergei was called "the most important spy for the U.S. since the
     collapse of the Soviet Union" by an FBI official in my book.
     Unfortunately, because much of what he said is still being used by U. S.
     counter-intelligence officers, it will be years before the true extent
     of his contribution can be made public - if ever.
     Sergei Olegovich Tretyakov was born Oct. 5, 1956 in Moscow and rose
     quickly through the ranks to become the second-in-command of the KGB in
     New York City between 1995 to 2000. As such, he oversaw all Russian spy
     operations against the US and its allies in New York City and within the
     United Nations.
     When he defected on Oct. 11, 2000, with Helen and their daughter,
     Ksenia, the U.S. government took the family into hiding and during the
     next five years, they lived largely "off the grid." It wasn't until
     Comrade J was published and Sergei went on a book tour that his work
     both as a high-ranking KGB/SVR officer and U.S. operative was made
     public. It is thought that he spent at least three years working as a
     U.S. agent while he was still an SVR colonel in New York.
     Sergei, Helen and their daughter became U.S. citizens after they
     defected and although some federal officials feared for their safety,
     Sergei lived openly under his own name without protection - although
     when he traveled overseas, he always had an FBI escort. Sergei was
     convinced that his U.S. citizenship protected him from the SVR, even
     though he continued to publicly criticize his former colleagues,
     especially President Vladimir Putin.
     The recent arrests of eleven Russian "illegals" on June 28th by the FBI
     thrust Sergei's name into the news once again. The fact that he was in
     charge of all covert operations in New York City when several of the
     illegals entered the country suggested that he was aware of their
     operations and quickly led to speculation that he had tipped-off the FBI
     about the ring.
     However, on Thursday, a  informed source told me that Sergei was not
     involved in the case. Sergei told U.S. officials when he was debriefed
     about Russian "illegal" operations, but he did not know the individuals
     who later were arrested, my source said.
     I became close friends with Sergei and Helen while working on my book
     about their life and his career. They insisted that I stay with them in
     their home and during our weeks together, I witnessed first-hand how
     much he and Helen loved each other, their devotion to their daughter,
     and love for their new homeland. I also was delighted to discover that
     Helen was a gourmet cook!
     Sergei dispelled many of the Hollywood stereotypes of a Russian agent.
     He was well-educated, fluent in three languages, quick-witted,
     personable and able to laugh at his own mistakes when he didn't
     understand an American tradition or slang.
     He proved to be a tireless worker when I interviewed him. He would speak
     for ten hours straight, often pacing back-and-forth, in the family room
     of his house as we discussed his career. He had a fabulous memory that
     he had sharpened as a KGB/SVR officer and he refused to speculate or
     exaggerate when he discussed KGB/SVR operations.  He knew his enemies in
     Russia would use the slightest mistake to attack his credibility so he
     was scrupulous in what he said and the charges that he made.
     Having written bestselling books about two American traitors, including
     John Walker Jr., and his Family of Spies,and Aldrich Ames, the CIA
     turncoat, I was struck at how different Sergei was from U.S. traitors.
     Walker and Ames were motivated by greed and money. Sergei did not need
     money. Upon his return to Russia from New York, he was due to be
     promoted to the rank of general, which would have guaranteed him a cushy
     retirement. He had assets in Moscow worth more than two million U.S.
     dollars - money that was stripped from him after he defected.
     It was clear to me early on that he did not swtich sides for financial
     gain, but rather because he had lost faith in Russian leaders and he
     wanted a better life for his young daughter. He liked to say that he did
     not betray his homeland. Rather he and other ordinary citizens in Russia
     had been betrayed by Presidents Boris Yeltsin and Putin after the Soviet
     Union collapsed.
     Neither Walker or Ames ever wanted to become Russian citizens, but
     Sergei and his family relished their U.S. citizenship. Sergei often told
     me that Americans were naive because they took freedoms for granted and
     did not understand how unique our lives here are compared to life in an
     oppressive nation, such as Russia whose leaders often silence their
     critics, especially those in the media, with a bullet.
     One reason why I believe Sergei did not know about the 11 Russians who
     were arrested as illegals is because he did not hold back during our
     interviews in identifying persons whom he claimed were Russian spies.
     Among the individuals identified in my book were a former member of the
     Canadian Parliament, a top-ranking verification expert at the
     International Atomic Energy Agency, and a former U.N. official who
     Sergei helped place in the Oil For Food Program. That UN official
     diverted a half billion US dollars of UN humanitarian relief to Moscow
     under both the Yeltsin and Putin administrations and was rewarded by
     Putin for the thefts. Sergei was disgusted by that thievery and said so.
     In our interviews, he talked repeatedly about how Yeltsin had failed the
     Russian people by becoming a drunken stumble-bum who allowed Oligarchs
     to engorge themselves by stealing government property. He had similar
     harsh criticisms for Putin, whom Sergei described as an insignificant
     KGB officer who later as president surrounded himself with thugs. Their
     primary goal has been to enrich themselves, he charged.
     Sergei asked me to write his story at the suggestion of a director in
     the British intelligence service. They were having dinner when my name
     was mentioned because the director had read my book about Aldrich Ames
     and had admired it. Sergei waived his rights to any advance money from
     the publisher and received less than $10,000 from the book's sales even
     though it was a New York Times bestseller. Money was not his motive in
     telling his story.
     Instead, he hoped to sound a wake-up call about Russia. He was fond of
     saying that the Cold War never ended. Before the collapse of the Soviet
     Union, the KGB had a list of three main adversaries: (1.) The United
     States  (2.) NATO and (3.) China. After the KGB was disbanded and the
     SVR was formed, Sergei said a new edict came down announcing that the
     SVR had three main targets: (1.) The United States (2.) NATO and (3.)
     China.
     "What changed?" he asked, laughing.
     Those of us who were his friends will miss his sense of humor, his
     knowledge about Russia and KGB/SVR spy-craft,  and his almost child-like
     love for his new country.
     I was honored to write his life story and to call him my friend.
     I will miss not hearing his voice when I call.

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

  

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-07-09 18:39:28</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1168958_re-ct-contradictory-quotes-about-tretyakov-autopsy-.html</permalink>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1169425</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - Some thoughts on US, UK, France, Turkey
</title>
    <description>   that should be 1.3 million per day*

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, May 19, 2011 10:24:55 AM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - Some thoughts on US, UK, France, Turkey

   My briefing yesterday with the USAF's strategy group was to help prep the
   USAF chief of staff before his trip to Turkey the first week of June. In
   this meeting, there was a US lt col, French lt col guy and British group
   captain, as well as the Europe guy from the State Dept's Office of the
   Secretary (who I completely owned in the discussion. he finally quit
   trying and then literally applauded stratfor's knowledge of these issues).
   Most of the discussion I had with them centered on our view on Turkey, the
   intermarium, Turkey's power struggle, etc. so nothing new to add there.
   The State Dept is still trying to wrap its head around how to deal with
   Turkey more effectively when it's becoming clear that Turkey isn't ready
   to handle everything on its plate. THere's also a lack of understanding on
   why Azerbaijan matters in this mix.  They're about to do what sounds like
   a pretty elaborate war game within NATO, and they complain that every time
   they do this, they're not allowed to call Iran 'Iran' in the game. It's
   referred to as 'Zagros'.  Why? Because the Turks insist on not calling
   Iran by it's name in these things.

   When I brought up Libya, and asked what's next in terms of the air
   campaign, the British adn French guys had an interesting response. The
   talk of UK only having 6 more months of funding for this air campaign is
   all about inter-service rivalry, justifying budgets, etc. The Brits and
   the French really don't seem concerned at all about the financial aspect.
   THey said it's an expense, but it's not expensive. It's costing each 1.3
   million euro per month to do Libya (including the daily patrols and
   everything else).  By comparison, Afghanistan costs them 1.4 million per
   month.

   They are fine with the stalemate. The British guy, who had met with the
   British air force chief a few days ago, said that no one is really trying
   to force the issue at this point. the rebels don't want to ask for state
   recognition until they get the West back. No one seems really prepared to
   force regime change and give that commitment, but they're willing to wait
   this one out until something gives within to make Ghadafi fall
   (non-militarily.)
   The money isn't what matters. What the Brits and the FRench are really
   getting out of this mil campaign is a good, hard lesson from their
   "American cousins" on command and control for these missions. The lesson
   here is vital for them. THey gave all sorts of examples. When the LIbya
   campaign began, France was still coordinating its mission with the UK
   through this lt col French liaison in the Pentagon instead of directly
   with UK. Now, finally, the Brits have set up a command office in Paris for
   them to coordinate. Little things like that make a huge difference, and
   the US is helping them along the way so that they can prove they can do
   missions like this more independently and manage their neighborhood.
   Classic balance of pwoer, as they put it. French-UK cooperation has really
   benefited from this whole thing. They could really care less that it's
   about Libya. They see this mission as a very useful boost for NATO and
   that this raises the bar for new entrants.

   I countered that you can't consider it a boost for NATO when you're
   missing GERMANY (!)  They acknowledged that NATO's original purpose is
   broken. These regional realignments, with France, UK adn US working
   closely together is the new future. They still seem to think that despite
   warming German-Russian ties, they don't need to worry yet about Germany.
   Their military is still largely seen as irrelevant, and so in that sense,
   NATO is still doing the job of keeping Germany down and Russia out.

   The French guy joked that now Strauss-Kahn is out of the running, Sarkozy
   doesn't need to continue the war in Libya anymore. He's got the election
</description>
    <date>2011-05-19 17:39:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 07:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1169425_re-alpha-insight-some-thoughts-on-us-uk-france-turkey-.html</permalink>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1172894</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION - Insight on Iranian intentions in negotiations
</title>
    <description>   Amendment to this:

     . It could certainly go down further, but a South Korean-style presence,
     especially with troops serving in the role of a conventional deterrent,
     not carrying out internal security functions, is not something I'd
     completely rule out -- IF it can be worked out with the government in
     Baghdad. And for that, you need a government in Baghdad...

   it's not about working that out with a government in Baghdad.  Even if you
   are talking to the govt in Baghdad, you are still dealing with Iran on
   this issue. First, you have to talk the Iranians.  Hence, the
   negotiations...
   On Aug 2, 2010, at 10:05 AM, Nate Hughes wrote:

     The SOFA says all troops out by the end of 2011. This is the time at
     which Iraqi security forces are expected to be capable of handling
     internal security issues on their own.

     Because this is the language of the SOFA, the U.S. military is making
     preparations to do just that. The U.S. embassy is making preparations
     for contractors to assist DSS with all manner of security required for
     the U.S. diplomatic mission.

     But I don't think this necessarily has to be the final settlement. The
     Iraqi military is not expected to be capable of external/territorial
     defense until 2018+. A lot of that can be covered by an implicit U.S.
     security guarantee and a presence in Kuwait with a lot of pre-positioned
     gear.

     But the re-establishment of a strategic reserve (which is G's focus on
     the drawdown as I understand it) will already begin to be possible with
     the drawdown to 50K. It could certainly go down further, but a South
     Korean-style presence, especially with troops serving in the role of a
     conventional deterrent, not carrying out internal security functions, is
     not something I'd completely rule out -- IF it can be worked out with
     the government in Baghdad. And for that, you need a government in
     Baghdad...

     Kamran Bokhari wrote:

       From what I have heard from G, DC needs to pull em out. And the other
       thing is that the Iraqis won't want them to stay. As for when they
       would leave, some time late next year is what I am seeing from the
       Obama administration. Of course that could change. 
       On 8/2/2010 10:40 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

         Question: when we talk about our continued desire to get out of
         Iraq, do we actually intend (at least publicly/legally) to fully
         withdraw these final 50,000 troops, ever? Or if not "ever," in the
         next five-10 years? Not familiar with what the SOFA mandates must be
         done once our combat troops are all out. And obviously the answer
         would have a huge effect on these negotiations.

         Do we really "need" to pull them out, or would it not be that huge
         of a strain on our military to maintain troops there, just like we
         do in Europe, Korea, and tons of other places?

         Kamran Bokhari wrote:

           There isn't much time to do anything with the remaining troops.
           They are leaving one way or another. Iran knows that. Also, the
           only situation that I can see upsetting the drawdown schedule is
           massive violence combined with the various factions rapidly
           hurling into a direction opposite to that of a power-sharing
           formula. The talks are not going anywhere but no sign that these
           guys are about to say fuck it. Also, note that July was the
           deadliest month in terms of attacks since 2008. But U.S. forces
           continue to drawdown and ahead of schedule. Iran is also not
           interested in creating problems right now because it doesn't have
           the Shia house in order with al-Maliki feuding with
           al-Hakim/al-Sadr. 

           The key issue is therefore the 50k troops that will be left
           behind. Even then the Iranians don't have to do anything
           necessarily. Just play around with U.S. perceptions. They know
           that DC needs to pull them out but can't. Not without creating a
           vacuum that Tehran would exploit. So, they say we can let you go
           with assurances if you give us what we want, which is regime
           security, lifting of sanctions, and recognition of IRI's regional
           role. Hence the bit about holding them hostage. That said, do note
           that the al-Sadrites said recently that they will not tolerate any
           long-term American bases in country even in Kurdistan. So Iran has
           that option as well. but really their goal is to play with U.S.
           perceptions to get what they want. They won't need to do much more
           unless the U.S. says the 50K are digging in for the long haul. 
            
            
           On 8/2/2010 10:14 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

             I think it's a bit of both.  The demands outlined here make
             sense. At the same time, iran will want to convey the message
             that it has the upper hand and the US needs to be the one to
             make the first move.  This is why I'd like a better
             understanding of what can Iran actually do to the remaining
             troops in Iraq to upset the withdrawal or hold the leftover
             forces hostage?
             On Aug 2, 2010, at 8:44 AM, Rodger Baker wrote:

               if these are part of backchannel messaging to DC, how do we
               interpret these? as accurate assessments of iran's views, or
               as the position Iran wants people in the US admin and policy
               positions to think is the iranian position?
               On Aug 2, 2010, at 8:20 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

                 Please read the two pieces of insight below.  They both come
                 from the same source, who (I believe)  has used this
                 communication link through S4 in attempt to send messages to
                 the US administration. I believe this message below is being
                 transmitted through a number of backchannels.
                 I think this is important for us to publish in an article so
                 we can better define the Iranian position in this stage of
                 the negotiations.  It is clear that the Iranian priority is
                 Iraq in these nuclear negotiations, which should come as no
                 surprise to STRATFOR.  My biggest question is, are the
                 Iranians overestimating their leverage over the remaining US
                 troops in Iraq?  Perhaps there is an Iranian contingency
                 plan that we haven't fully considered?  Overall, the
                 Iranians are not under any great pressure to concede
                 anything big right now. It's up to the US to answer to their
                 demands in Iraq, and it's unclear to me whether the US is
                 really that much of a blocker to what Iran wants to achieve
                 in Iraq right now. It's also unclear to what extent Iran
                 would cooperate in allowing in inspectors again and in
                 temproarily freezing enrichment.  
                 PUBLICATION: for analysis
                 ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources
                 SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Iranian diplomat -- strongly suspected
                 of using S4 as backchannel to US admin
                 SOURCE  Reliability :  D
                 ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3 
                 DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
                 SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
                 Iran has informed the USA through back channels about its
                 perspective on resolving the current standoff with regard to
                 the Iranian nuclear program. The Iranian package includes
                 the following:
                 1. Iran wants the US to cease its support to secessionist
                 ethnic groups in Iran, namely the Balochs in
                 Balochistan-Sistan and Arabs in Khuzistan (Ahwas), in
                 addition to Mujahidin e-Khalq.
                 2. Iran will suspend uranium enrichment for a year.
                 3. Iran will give international inspectors access to its
                 nuclear sites.
                 4. Iran will allow US troops to withdraw smoothly from Iraq.
                 5. The US gives Iran a free hand in Iraq and allows it to
                 form the cabinet of its choice.

                 The source believes Iran has the upper hand over the US,
                 because the Obama administration's main concern is to ensure
                 a peaceful and disruption free withdrawal from Iraq. Iran
                 can make this happen, otherwise it can easily transform US
                 troops there into hostages. The Iranians strongly feel that
                 the fate of US troops in Iraq lies within their hands. s
                 Iran has the capacity to make or unmake president Obama.

                 The Iranians have told the Americans that they will not go
                 for Allawi's prime ministership. They very much prefer the
                 weak character of Nuri al-Maliki, whom they can easily use
                 to achieve their goals in Iraq.  Iran is quite hopeful that
                 al-Maliki will become next prime minister because Ayatollah
                 Ali Sistani has quietly endorsed his candidacy. He says the
                 reappointment of Maliki will neutralize the aspirations in
                 Iraq of Syria, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Iran will not
                 compromise on Iraq. It will delay its nuclear program but it
                 will not abandon it and they have made this matter
                 absolutely clear to the Americans. He thinks Iran will
                 prevail.

                   On 7/30/2010 9:59 AM, Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

                     PUBLICATION: analysis
                     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources
                     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Iranian diplomat
                     SOURCE  Reliability :  D
                     ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
                     DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
                     SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
                     ** This supports my earlier assumption that Iran still
                     feels like it has enough leverage in other places to
                     avoid making any real concessions in this next round of
                     talks.
                     There is nothing the Iranians like more than discussing
                     their nuclear program.  Iran is keenly interested in
                     negotiating its nuclear options. He adds that "we are
                     only interested in the process of negotiation and do not
                     intend to make concessions that may harm our strategic
                     nuclear objectives." He says the Iranians feel quite
                     safe as long as the West engages them in talks. Talking
                     is one thing and reaching firm agreements that the
                     Iranians will respect is another thing.

                     The source says the Iranians can withstand as much
                     pressure as the West can apply. The  Iranian
                     leadership's assessment is that neither the US nor
                     Israel will attack them, because the repercussions for
                     the US/Israel will be beyond their ability to withstand.
                     He says it would not make much sense for the US to
                     escalate militarily if they are so desperate to downsize
                     their miliarty presence in Iraq. He says Ahmadinejad
                     chose to sound concerned when he told Press TV last week
                     that the US will launch war against two countries in the
                     Middle East. Ahmadinejad wanted to give the impression
                     that he is concerned and that Iran may be willing to
                     make serious concessions. His real aim was to get the US
                     to engage Iran and give it more time until it achieves
                     its nuclear objectives. He says Ahmadinejad is basing
                     his assumptions on the seeming conviction that the West
                     will limit its response to diplomatic and economic
                     sanctions. He says the US may use Israel to send signals
                     to Iran by authorizing the Israelis to hit at Hizbullah
                     in Lebanon. The Iranians are serious about talks but
                     they are not serious about making concessions that can
                     undermine their nuclear abmitions. Iran's decision om
                     this matter is strategic and irreversible.
</description>
    <date>2010-08-02 17:08:31</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-05 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1172894_re-discussion-insight-on-iranian-intentions-in-negotiations-.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1173190</id>
    <title>RE: TURKEY/ISRAEL - Gulen criticizes flotilla in WSJ interview
</title>
    <description>   Yes that is the puzzle.

    

   From: George Friedman [mailto:friedman@att.blackberry.net]
   Sent: June-04-10 3:11 PM
   To: Kamran Bokhari; Analysts
   Subject: Re: TURKEY/ISRAEL - Gulen criticizes flotilla in WSJ interview

    

   Focus on the fact that this guy said something totally out of keeping not
   only with the akp, but with all turkish opinion as well as the entire
   islamic world plus every woman in england who where sensible shoes.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Kamran Bokhari" &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;

   Date: Fri, 4 Jun 2010 15:08:21 -0400

   To: &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;; 'Analyst List'&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;

   Subject: RE: TURKEY/ISRAEL - Gulen criticizes flotilla in WSJ interview

    

   Have pinged him. Let's see how quickly he responds or even responds to
   this one at all. FG movement has a complex relationship with AKP. There
   are many within AKP who are Gulenites but they don't dominate the party.
   FG has been building itself within the educational and law enforcement
   sectors.

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of George Friedman
   Sent: June-04-10 3:05 PM
   To: Analysts
   Subject: Re: TURKEY/ISRAEL - Gulen criticizes flotilla in WSJ interview

    

   Let's keep the cat 2 factual and not draw conclusions yet. Let's see what
   kamran gets. We need to gage how this will impact the turkish government.

   I know that I was steered away from zaman to sabah by him. I think there
   may be a split opening.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;

   Date: Fri, 4 Jun 2010 14:02:21 -0500 (CDT)

   To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;

   Subject: Re: TURKEY/ISRAEL - Gulen criticizes flotilla in WSJ interview

    

   im on it

    

    

   On Jun 4, 2010, at 2:01 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

    

   Sounds like a way for AKP to move to a safe distance as well. Let us a do
   a CAT 2 on this.

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
   [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Reva Bhalla
   Sent: June-04-10 2:57 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: TURKEY/ISRAEL - Gulen criticizes flotilla in WSJ interview

    

   NOte that he's very noticeably distancing his movment from the IHH

    

    

   On Jun 4, 2010, at 1:51 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

   This should be repped.  

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On
   Behalf Of Bayless Parsley
   Sent: June-04-10 2:50 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: TURKEY/ISRAEL - Gulen criticizes flotilla in WSJ interview

    

   Reclusive Turkish Imam Criticizes Gaza Flotilla
   http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704025304575284721280274694.html#printMode

   6/4/10

   By JOE LAURIA

   SAYLORSBURG, Pa.-Imam Fethullah Gu:len, a controversial and reclusive U.S.
   resident who is considered Turkey's most influential religious leader,
   criticized a Turkish-led flotilla for trying to deliver aid without
   Israel's consent.

   Speaking in his first interview with a U.S. news organization, Mr. Gu:len
   spoke of watching news coverage of Monday's deadly confrontation between
   Israeli commandos and Turkish aid group members as its flotilla approached
   Israel's sea blockade of Gaza. "What I saw was not pretty," he said. "It
   was ugly."

   Mr. Gu:len said organizers' failure to seek accord with Israel before
   attempting to deliver aid "is a sign of defying authority, and will not
   lead to fruitful matters."

   Mr. Gu:len's views and influence within Turkey are under growing scrutiny
   now, as factions within the country battle to remold a democracy that is a
   key U.S. ally in the Middle East. The struggle, as many observers
   characterize it, pits the country's old-guard secularist and military
   establishment against Islamist-leaning government workers and ruling
   politicians who say they seek a more democratic and religiously tolerant
   Turkey. Mr. Gu:len inspires a swath of the latter camp, though the extent
   of his reach remains hotly disputed.

   His words of restraint come as many in Turkey gave flotilla members a
   hero's welcome after two days of detention in Israel. Prime Minister Recep
   Tayyip Erdogan of the ruling Justice and Development Party condemned
   Israel's moves as "bullying" and a "historic mistake."

   Mr. Gu:len said he had only recently heard of IHH, the Istanbul-based
   Islamic charity active in more than 100 countries that was a lead flotilla
   organizer. "It is not easy to say if they are politicized or not," he
   said. He said that when a charity organization linked with his movement
   wanted to help Gazans, he insisted they get Israel's permission. He added
   that assigning blame in the matter is best left to the United Nations.

   Mr. Gu:len has long cut a baffling figure, as critics and adherents have
   sparred over the nature of his influence in Turkey and the extent of his
   reach. Leading a visitor on Wednesday past his front corridor-adorned with
   a map of Turkey, a verse from the Quran and a photograph of a Turkish F-16
   jet over the Bosphorus-he portrayed himself an apolitical teacher. "I do
   not consider myself someone who has followers," he said.
   More

       * Opinion: Turkey's Radical Drift
       * New Aid Ship Heads to Gaza
       * Israel Explores Easing Its Blockade of Gaza
       * Turkish Group Sees Victory in Martyrdom
       * Israel's Isolation Deepens
       * In Israel and Abroad, Raid Spurs Criticism of Military's Judgment
       * Aboard Marmara, Skirmish Turns Deadly
       * Complete Coverage: WSJ.com/Mideast 

   Born in eastern Turkey in 1941, Mr. Gu:len became a state-licensed imam at
   17, after three years of formal education and studies with Sufi masters.
   In a Turkey largely under the sway of a military-secularist establishment,
   he built a national organization of Islamic study and boarding halls,
   gaining support of many wealthy Muslims but at times running afoul of the
   law.

   While in the U.S. in 1999 for medical treatment, he was charged in Turkey
   with attempting to create an Islamic state- anathema under Turkey's
   secularist constitution. He stayed in Pennsylvania, where he now lives on
   a 25-acre estate in the Pocono Mountains. Over the years, he said, he has
   left the estate twice.

   Mr. Gu:len preaches nonviolence, dialogue between Western and Muslim
   worlds, and an educational tradition that combines study of science and
   Islam. His newspaper columns, weekly Internet sermons and other messages
   have been collected into more than 60 books. His adherents number, by
   various estimates, three million to eight million.

   Followers have established hundreds of schools in more than 100 countries
   and run an insurance company and an Islamic bank, Asya, that its 2008
   annual report said had $5.2 billion in assets. They own Turkey's largest
   daily newspaper, Zaman; the magazine Aktion; a wire service; publishing
   companies; a radio station and the television network STV, according to
   Helen Rose Ebaugh, a University of Houston sociologist and author of "The
   Gu:len Movement." She says followers donate up to one-third of their
   income to independent Gu:len-linked foundations.

   Ms. Ebaugh said Mr. Gu:len doesn't sit on the boards of Asha bank nor any
   foundation or editorial boards of Gu:len-sympathetic magazines, newspapers
   or television stations. In the interview, the imam said he had no
   financial interest in any holdings.

   Mr. Gu:len's detractors see him as a cult-like leader whose empire aims to
   train an Islamic elite who will one day rebuild the Turkish state. Soner
   Cagaptay, a Gu:len critic who is a Turkey analyst at the Washington
   Institute for Near East Policy, says the Turkish police force may be
   largely influenced by the imam through Gu:len sympathizers in key
   positions-effectively creating a counterbalance to Turkey's powerful
   military, a secularist bastion.

   "I am not a leader of a faction or someone who would cause some state
   officials to follow me despite their official duties," Mr. Gu:len said in
   the interview.

   The U.S. has "immense ambivalence" about Mr. Gu:len, said Graham Fuller,
   an ex-Central Intelligence Agency officer who is a resident consultant at
   the Rand Corp. in British Columbia.

   "On the one hand they do perceive him as very moderate and doing many
   positive things," Mr. Fuller said. But Washington has long thrown its lot
   behind the secularist followers of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, he says, viewing
   them "as the only narrative to what Turkish politics is all about."

   The U.S. State Department declined to comment about Mr. Gu:len for this
   article.

   In 2007, U.S. Homeland Security moved to deny Mr. Gu:len
   permanent-resident status in the U.S., rejecting his claim of exceptional
   ability as an educator. "The record contains overwhelming evidence that
   plaintiff is primarily the leader of a large and influential religious and
   political movement with immense commercial holdings," the government
   wrote.

   Mr. Gu:len won on appeal after getting 29 letters of support, including
   one from Mr. Fuller.

   The imam disputed Homeland Security's characterization. He goes only so
   far as to provide guidance to those who ask, he said.

   The 2002 election of the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, opened a
   new era for Mr. Gu:len and those he inspires, given their common foe in
   the military-secularist establishment.

   The AKP says it has no political ties to Mr. Gu:len. The imam says critics
   have linked him, falsely, to Turkey's current and previous leaders. "I do
   not have and have never had any relationship with a movement that has
   political aspirations," he said. "I am just a Turkish citizen."

   Last month, Mr. Gu:len's followers founded the Assembly of Turkic American
   Federations in Washington, a lobbying and umbrella organization for some
   180 local non-profit foundations around the U.S. involved in education and
   culture.

   An English-language Turkish newspaper reported that Mr. Gu:len has told
   his followers they couldn't visit him on his Poconos estate if they didn't
   first donate to their local congressman. Mr. Gulen denies making the
   remark.

   Mr. Gu:len said that for Muslims, benefiting their community is both an
   Islamic and humanitarian duty, and that he would be happy if those who
   respect him support their lawmakers in the name of democracy and
   humanitarianism.

   "I hear that some people in the United States consider Turkey as sitting
   at the epicenter of radicalism," Mr. Gu:len said. The new federation's
   lobbying would aim "to reflect through sincere, pro-dialog and open-minded
   people the true nature of Turkey's realities."

   Write to Joe Lauria at newseditor@wsj.com

    

    
</description>
    <date>2010-06-04 21:12:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-12 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1173190_re-turkey-israel-gulen-criticizes-flotilla-in-wsj-interview-.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1176624</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION - Responses to the ICJ Opinion
</title>
    <description>   this is a great starting point

   Marko Papic wrote:

     This research is in response to the Intelligence Guidance, which asked
     us to do a sweep of secessionist regions and see how they responded to
     the ruling. Not everyone responded to the ruling yet, but we did a sweep
     of most secessionist regions anyways.

     This is not a proposal for an analysis. I want everyone to have access
     to the research we conducted. Especially the MONITORS and WOs because we
     want to make sure that we pick up on any statements from any region on
     the ICJ opinion (see the list of regions below).

     If this were to lead to an analysis the only angle I can see it the fact
     that the media is concentrating on the wrong regions. The media is
     concentrating on this story in terms of what it means for
     Nagorno-Kharabah, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Transdniestria, etc. However,
     I think the focus on the FSU is misplaced. The ICJ opinion and legal
     legitimacy will have the least impact on regions in the FSU, where it is
     all about foreign patronage (Russia) and capacity (can you defend your
     sovereignty). It is in Western Europe and the Balkans that the decision
     will have the most impact. Balkans because of direct applicability for
     Republika Srpska in BiH and the Albanians in Macedonia, Western Europe
     because an ICJ opinion and legal legitimacy carries much more weight in
     Spain or UK than it does in Azerbaijan or Russia.

     Classification of Secessionist Regions (example in brackets):

     TIER I - Quietly Simmering - Yes, secessionism is an idea, but the
     region has no interest in pursuing it at this time. It could stir up at
     some point in the future if the conditions are right, or change.
     (Serbian Krajina)

     TIER II - Secessionism active, but weak - Secessionism is more than just
     a distant idea - if not the outright stated goal - but the region has no
     means of pursuing it, it is too weak. (Basque Region)

     TIER III - Active Secessionism (without violence) - Secessionism is the
     stated goal, but the region will not use violence to pursue it.
     (Catalonia)

     TIER IV - Active Secessionism (with possible violence) - Secessionism is
     the stated goal and violence is potential (or active) means by which
     country will pursue it. (Republika Srpska)

     TIER V - The region is de-facto independent (South Ossetia)

     LIST OF EXAMINED REGIONS (* denotes that they did make a statement about
     ICJ Opinion)

     TIER I

     Croatia - Serbian Krajina
     Spain - Galicia
     Serbia - Vojvodina
     Finland/Sweden/Norway - Sami-land
     Italy - Lombardy
     Russia - Tatarstan * (statement was not by anyone official)

     TIER II

     Bosnia - Western Herzegovina
     Spain - Basque Country *
     Ukraine - Carpathian Ruthenia
     Serbia - Sandzak
     Ukraine - Crimea
     Romania - Szekler Land *
      
     TIER III

     Belgium (by which we mean both Flemish and Walloon regions, really the
     entire country)
     Denmark - Greenland
     Spain - Catalonia *
     U.K. - Scotland *
     Denmark - Faroe Islands

     TIER IV

     Bosnia - Republika Srpska *
     Moldova - Transdniestria *
     Macedonia - Albanian region*
     Russia - Chechnya
     Russia - Dagestan
     Russia - Ingushetia
     Russia - Kabardino-Balkaria
     Russia - Bashkortostan
     Russia - Adygea
     Russia - Karachai-Cherkessia
     Russia - North Ossetia
     Serbia - North Kosovo *
     Azerbaijan - Nagorno Karabakh *
     Georgia - Adjara
     Georgia - Samtskhe-Javaheti

     TIER V (secession over, violence still possible)

     Georgia - South Ossetia *
     Georgia - Abkhazia *

     TIER I

     CROATIA - Serbian Krajina:

     Population: Potentially 400,000 (based on figures from 1991-1995), but
     due to ethnic cleansing, forced expulsion/migration and difficulty in
     returning, less today. According to the Croatian 2001 census, there are
     around 201,631 Serbs in Croatia. (http://www.dzs.hr/)

     Popular support for independence: Low. Serbs in Croatia today are trying
     to fight for return of around 200,000 refugees from BiH and Serbia. The
     main Serbian party in Croatia, the Independent Democratic Serbian Party
     (SDSS), is party of the center-right nationalist government, with
     Slobodan Uzelac a Croatian Vice PM.

     Background: Krajina Serbs rebelled against Croatia in 1990 because the
     new Croatian constitution removed Serbs as a "constitutive nation" of
     Croatia and made them just one of the national minorities, along with
     Italians and Hungarians. The rebellion ended with Operation "Storm" in
     1995 when majority of Krajina Serbs fled from the region along with the
     retreating Serbian army.

     Current Status: Dissolved. "Government in exile" in Serbia. The
     government in exile was most active in 2005-2006 period. It was
     formulated in 2005, largely it seems as a PR stunt by the Serbian
     Radical Party (SRS). It has since issued statements here or there, such
     as recognizing South Ossetia and Abkhazia in 2008. However, their
     website and forum are largely dormant, certainly since 2007. 
     (http://www.vladarsk.com/)

     Comments on ICJ opinion: None

     Serbia Vojvodina

     Population: Just over 2 million, with about 290,000 Hungarians (14% of
     the province).
     (http://web.stratfor.com/images/europe/Hungarians-800.jpg?fn=5116103054)

     Popular support for independence: Very low. Hungarians make up just 14
     percent of the population. However, there is support for autonomy. Serbs
     in Vojvodina feel that with autonomy they have greater opportunities.
     Vojvodina is the richest part of Serbia.

     Current status: The adoption of the Vojvodina Statute on Autonomy at the
     end of 2009 satisfied the Serbs and to large extent Hungarians in
     Vojvodina. The statute returns Vojvodina the autonomy that was taken
     from it by Milosevic in the 1990. Hungarians are still interested in a
     possible autonomy within Vojvodina, but there are no plans to push for
     it at this moment.

     Comments on ICJ opinion: None

     SPAIN - Galicia
     Population: Approximately 10 millions of Galician people worldwide,
     including 2.796.089 in Galicia (6-7% of the Spanish population).

     Popular support for independence: Low. According to a recent poll, 75%
     of the Galicians feel more Spanish than Galicians. Source Galicia has
     partial self-governance, in the form of a devolved government,
     established on 16 March 1978 and reinforced by the Galician Statute of
     Autonomy, ratified on 28 April 1981.

     &gt;From 1990 BNG has gradually abandoned the secessionist discourse and
     claims for self-determination are rarely produced, especially since the
     regionalist party Unidade Galega (Galician Unity) joined the coalition.

     FINLAND/NORWAY/SWEDEN/RUSSIA - Sami people
      

     Population: Between 60,000 and 100,000 in Norway. 14,600 in Sweden. 9350
     in Finland. 2000 in Russia.

     Popular support for independence: Difficult to evaluate. There is a
     growing self-consciousness and the Sami people are asking for more
     rights, but still not to a point of secessionism.

     The Sami are politically organized through Sami Parliaments (one for
     each country) which sometimes work together. Most of their work is
     however related to preserving the Sami languages and culture. Disputes
     over the ownership of land and natural resources continue in these
     countries, which could potentially lead to a rise in their desire to be
     independent.

     The Sami Council is a transnational organization (ONG statute), which
     aims at promoting Saami rights and interests in the four countries where
     the Saami are living, to consolidate the feeling of affinity among the
     Saami people, to attain recognition for the Saami as a nation and to
     maintain the economic, social and cultural rights of the Saami in the
     legislation of the four states. 

     Overall, the risk of secession is very low.

     ITALY - Lombardy:

     Population: 9,821,270. Italy's richest region.

     Support for independence: extremely low. Instead, the Lombards want more
     autonomy. In the 2010 regional election the party Lega Lombarda (which
     wants to increase autonomy) gained 26.2%, its best result ever. The Lega
     Nord has pretty much abandoned its idea to create a State of Padania and
     is instead asking for more autonomy as well (the goal is a federal
     state).

     No statement on Kosovo found.

     RUSSIA - Tatarstan

     Population: 3.8 million people

     Comments on ICJ opinion: No official comments in Tatarstan about the ICJ
     opinion. But the chairwoman of the Milli Medjilis, self-procraimed
     pan-Tatar national assembly, has said that she hopes Tatarstan follows
     the same path as Kosovo. She, however, does not have much support in
     Tatarstan,
      
     TIER II

     BiH: Herzeg Bosna - Western Herzegovina

     Population: There are about 700,000 Croats in BiH today.

     Popular support for independence: Very low. The Croats as part of the
     Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina want their own ethnic political
     entity. They have expressed this desire a numerous times and tensions
     between Bosniaks and Croats have been rising, especially around the city
     of Mostar.

     Current status: All of the Croatian parties in BiH support the creation
     of a third political entity. The Muslims are vehemently opposed to this,
     since it would leave them isolated in the most populous, and
     territorially smallest, entity. However, the Croats do not want
     independence largely because Zagreb has made it clear that it would not
     support them. Croatia is trying to get into the EU and supporting
     Bosnian Croats in independence would be a problem.

     Comments on the ICJ opinion: None

     Ukraine Crimea

     Population: Crimea has about 2 million people. According to the latest
     Ukrainian census, the population is 58.32 percent Russian, 24.32 percent
     Ukrainian, 12.1 percent Crimean Tatar, 1.44 percent Belarus.
     (http://www.ukrcensus.gov.ua/eng/regions/reg_crym/) The population
     speaks mainly Russian.

     Popular support for independence:

     Background: Crimea never considered itself part of Ukraine, which is why
     the collapse of the Soviet Union was a shock for the republic. It is the
     only Autonomous Republic in Ukraine today, but it very nearly sought
     independence in the early 1990s. The idea was eventually abandoned and
     it has a special autonomous status now.

     Current Status: With change in government in Kyiv, Crimean independence
     is not something that is expected to come to the forefront again. The
     pro-Moscow government has signed an extension with Russia for the Black
     Sea Fleet to stay in Sevastopol until 2042. With tensions between Russia
     and Ukraine reduced, Crimea no longer can rely on Russia supporting it
     against Kyiv. Under Yuschenko, however, Russians were giving Russian
     passports to the ethnic Russians in Crimea 
     (http://www.kyivpost.com/news/politics/detail/75601/) during Yuschenko's
     rule and this is definitely a potential flash point between Russia and
     Ukraine if Kyiv ever decides to play with the West again.

     Comments on ICJ opinion: None

     Ukraine: Carpathian Ruthenia

     Population: About 1 to 1.5 million, most living in Zakarpattia in
     Ukraine

     Popular support for independence: Difficult to gauge, but it exists. At
     least according to the intelligence we have from the region.

     Current Status: Moscow was making moves to influence the Ruthenians to
     ask for independence in late 2008. The Ruthenians live on the Western
     side of the Carpathians and are therefore geographically separated from
     Ukraine to an extent. However, with Kyiv firmly under Moscow's control,
     it does not seem that Ruthenians would have the international support
     for their independence.

     Comments on ICJ opinion: none thus far.
     SERBIA - Sandzak

     Population: About 150,000 Muslims living in a region where they make up
     about 55-60 percent of total population.

     Popular support for independence: Unclear because the Bosniak community
     is split between Muamer Zukorlic and Sulejman Ugljanin. Ugljanin
     supports a different mufti against Zukoerlic. There is therefore
     considerable internal dissent in the region.

     Current Status: Muamer Zukorlic's group is pretty mad that the votes for
     the Bosniak Council were deemed illegal by the government (LINK:
     http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/main/analysis/29484/). There is talk in
     the region of parallel institutions being imposed. This is very
     reminiscent of what happened in Kosovo before the uprising by Albanians
     against Serbs. However, the Bosniak's are divided, which means that
     there is no unity by the Muslims against Serbs.

     Comments on ICJ opinion: None, however there has been talk in Sandzak of
     adopting parallel institutions to Serbian government, which is what
     Kosovars did in Kosovo in the 1980s.

     SPAIN - Basque Country

     Population: 1,850,500 in the Spanish part of the Basque country, 230,020
     in the French part.

     Support for independence: Low/moderate.

     Since 2009, the President of the Basque country is Juan Jose Ibarretxe,
     a Socialist, but still fairly in favor of a wider autonomy (Proposed for
     example in 2003 Ibarretxe Plan, which foresees a future Basque country
     'freely associated' with Spain, with its own separate legal system and
     European Union (EU) representation.) Thus, politically, the secessionist
     movement is relatively strong. In regard to popular support to
     independence, a poll in 2002 showed that 32% of the people living in the
     Basque region would be in favor of a statu quo; 31% are in favor of a
     wider autonomy and 31% would support the independence.

     Comments on ICJ opinion:

     PNV [Basque Nationalist Party]

     "It is a victory for common sense," Inigo Urkullu [leader of PNV] said.

     Inaki Anasagasti [PNV member of Parliament] urged the government to stop
     "scaring" Catalonia and the Basque Country.

      Source: La Vanguardia website, Barcelona, in Spanish 24 Jul 10

      El portavoz del Partido Nacionalista Vasco en la Comision Mixta para la
     Union Europea, Inaki Anasagasti, ha declarado que esta decision del CIJ
     no hace si no confirmar que la postura que Espana ha mantenido hasta
     ahora sobre este tema es "incomprensible y mas propia del franquismo"
     que de un sistema democratico, y le ha pedido al Gobierno que deje de
     "meter miedo" a Cataluna y Euskadi. Ademas, ha arremetido contra el
     ministro de Exteriores, al que acusa de tener "mucha querencia sobre
     Serbia". Anasagasti ha apostillado que los nacionalistas vascos van a
     continuar reclamando en las Cortes Generales en su derecho de la
     voluntad popular "por encima de cualquier otra consideracion".

      Google Translate: The Basque Nationalist Party spokesman in the Joint
     Commission for the European Union, Inaki Anasagasti, said that the
     decision of the ICJ if it does confirm that the position that Spain has
     maintained so far on this issue is "incomprehensible and more typical of
     Franco "that a democratic system, and has asked the government to stop
     the" scare "in Catalonia and Euskadi. He has also lashed out at foreign
     minister, which he accuses of having "a lot of fondness for Serbia."
     Anasagasti has Apostilled that Basque nationalists will continue calling
     on the Parliament in the right of the popular will "above any other
     consideration."

     ROMANIA - Szekler Land

     Population: 786.573 according to census in 2002. Composition:
     Szekler-Hungarians 75.65%; Romanians: 20%; Others: 4.35%
     (http://freeszekelyland.uw.hu/population.html;
     http://www.sznt.eu/en/index.php?option=com_content&amp;view=article&amp;id=210%3Athe-szeklers-and-their-struggle-for-autonomy&amp;catid=4%3Aa-szekelyseg&amp;Itemid=6&amp;lang=en)

     Popular support for independence: high. They say however that they want
     autonomy and argue that it is different from independence.

     Foreign backing: Hungary (depending on government - now they've got
     backing for instance)

     Current status: It has no formal independent political organization;
     there are 3 counties that are organized following the Romanian laws.
     There is no leadership for the region as the political representation is
     no longer formed by one party; there are 2 main parties: Tokes one and
     UDMR and some other small organizations that are basically fighting each
     other to get the Seklers' support in the respective counties and in
     Transylvania's regions where Hungarians live. There has been something
     called "Szekle's Assembly" backed by the Hungarian parties that wrote a
     manisfesto in 2006 - with no success. http://freeszekelyland.uw.hu/)

     EP Vice President Laszlo Tokes - and a legend in Hungarian Romanian lore
     - said that Kosovo and Hungarians in Romania are similar, but he then
     changed his mind, saying that he was not talking of independence, but
     rather autonomy.

     TIER III

     DENMARK - Greenland:

     Population: 57,000.  88% Inuit (including Inuit-Danish mixed, 12%
     Europeans, mostly Danish.

     Referendum for more autonomy in 2008: Just over 75% of voters had
     supported the plan, which gives Greenland a say in foreign policy and a
     more definite split of future oil revenue, and make Greenlandic the sole
     official language (among other things). Greenland gained self-rule in
     1979, after previously being a colony and then a province of Denmark.
     Source

     No statements on Kosovo.

     SPAIN - Catalonia:

     Population: 4,664,675 of Catalans in Catalonia (7,504,881 is the total
     population of Catalonia).

     Popular support: 37% of pro-independence, 41% of unionists (highest
     support of independence it has ever been) Source

     1979: Autonomy recovered. A new statute was approved in 2006 by
     referendum.  However, important articles of the statute were declared
     unconstitutional in July 2010. The Catalan Statute of Autonomy (1979)
     established a Catalan Parliament, the Presidency of the Generalitat, the
     Government or Executive Council and the other institutions created by
     the Parliament. Symbolic referendum on independence are sometimes
     organized.

     Comments on ICJ opinion:

      Por su parte, Esquerra Republicana, a traves de su eurodiputado, Oriol
     Junqueras, se mostro "satisfecho de que la democracia haya vencido". ERC
     se propone presentar una propuesta no de ley pidiendo el reconocimiento
     con todos sus efectos de la Republica de Kosovo.

      Google Translate: For its part, Esquerra Republicana, through its MEP,
     Oriol Junqueras, was "satisfied that democracy has prevailed." ERC
     intends to present a law proposal calling for the recognition for all
     purposes of the Republic of Kosovo.

     Entre los catalanes, el partido de Artur Mas ha felicitado al pueblo
     kosovar, y considera que esta ha sido una sentencia logica. Ademas,
     insta al Gobierno espanol a "reconocer definitivamente al nuevo Estado
     europeo". Source

     Google Translate: Among the Catalans, the party of Artur Mas
     (Convergencia i Unio) has congratulated the people of Kosovo, and
     considers that this was a logical decision. It also urges the Spanish
     government to "finally recognize the new European state."

     &gt;From the President of Catalonia, Jose Montilla
      
     El presidente de la Generalitat, Jose Montilla, ha destacado que
     Cataluna y Kosovo tienen "pocas cosas en comun", por lo que ha rechazado
     que puedan establecerse paralelismos. "No tiene nada que ver el regimen
     opresivo de la Serbia de Milosevic con la Cataluna y la Espana de 2010".
     Responde asi a las declaraciones de ERC. Para los independentistas, la
     decision de la ONU de declarar legal la independencia de Kosovo se
     podria aplicar a una hipotetica independencia de Cataluna.
      
     Google Translate: The President of the Generalitat, Jose Montilla,
     Catalonia and stressed that Kosovo have "little in common, so has
     rejected parallels can be established. "It has nothing to do with the
     oppressive regime of Milosevic's Serbia and Spain in Catalonia in 2010."
     Responds to the statements of ERC. For independence, the UN decision to
     declare the independence of Kosovo law could be applied to a
     hypothetical independence of Catalonia.

     DENMARK - Faroe Islands:

     Population: 48,760 , 91.7% Faroese and 5.8% Danish.

     Desire for independence is old. In 1946 a referendum was held in the
     Faroes about complete independence or continued presence within the
     Danish state. There was a majority in favor of complete independence but
     the Danish government overruled the result, claiming the margin was too
     small. They have been an autonomous region of the kingdom of Denmark
     since 1948 and have, over the years, taken control of most matters,
     except defense and foreign affairs. Source

     Support for independence is high, about 50%

     Moderate / High risk of secession in the long term (high support +
     economically viable since companies invest in Faroese oil).

     No statements about Kosovo.

     U.K. - Scotland:

     Population: 5,194,000.  89% Scottish, 7% English, Irish, Welsh, 4%
     other.

     Scotland has partial self-government within the United Kingdom as well
     as representation in the UK Parliament. The United Kingdom Parliament
     retains power over a set list of areas explicitly specified in the
     Scotland Act 1998 as reserved matters, including, for example, levels of
     UK taxes, social security, defense, international relations. The
     Scottish Parliament has legislative authority for all other areas
     relating to Scotland, as well as limited power to vary income tax, a
     power it has yet to exercise.

     The largest party is the Scottish National Party which campaigns for
     Scottish independence and which won 32.9% of the votes at the 2007
     Scottish Parliament election. The Scottish National Party formed the
     Scottish government, which comprises only SNP members.

     Popular support: Surveys show only 27 per cent of Scots would support
     independence in a referendum compared to 55 per cent who are opposed.
     (March 2010 - Source). Overall, the percentage of people supporting
     Scottish independence is decreasing.

     "It is crucial ... that neighbouring governments, especially Serbia,
     recognise that not only is Kosovan independence legal, it is a necessary
     step in building the stability of the region," said Alyn Smith from the
     Scottish National Party. Source  (More details:
     http://www.snp.org/node/17177)

     LEVEL IV

     MOLDOVA - Transdniestria:
     Population: 555,347 based on Transnistrian census in 2004. Composition:
     Moldovans 31.9%; Russians 30.4%, Ukrainians 28.8%, Others: 8.9%.
     (http://pridnestrovie.net/facts.html;
     http://www.olvia.idknet.com/ol37-09-05.htm)

     Popular support for independence: presumably high, they are organized as
     a de-facto republic with own organization

     Foreign backing - Russia

     Current status: Transniestria is a presidential republic, with the
     president being also head of government. In theory there is also a
     parliament that has legislative power. In practice, the region is
     controlled by the president - Igor Smirnov and his family which has key
     posts in the econ/political life.

     Attitudes on Kosovo ICJ rulling:

     The foreign ministry of Moldova's breakaway Dniester region has welcomed
     the ruling of the International Court of Justice on Kosovo and said that
     it means "international legitimization of a settlement model based on
     priority of a nation's right to self-determination". In a statement
     posted on the Dniester region official Olvia-press website on 27 July,
     the ministry said that the UN decision is an obvious move "towards
     reformatting the outdated Helsinki mechanism applied to the entire
     Europe in accordance with the demands of the 21st century". The Dniester
     foreign ministry said that the ruling of the International Court of
     Justice "has international legal meaning as it cancels out any
     unilateral attempts by other states to hamper expression of the people's
     will through adoption of their own laws", Olvia-press reported. [bbcmon
     - see the whole article below]

     BOSNIA - Republika Srpska

     Population: 1.5 million of which nearly 90 percent are Serb (up from 55 
     percent before the war due to ethnic cleansing).

     Popular support for independence: High, of course most would want to
     join Serbia post-independence.

     Current Status: Republika Srpska is a separate political entity in BiH
     created by the Dayton Peace Accord. It is ethnically more Serbian than
     Serbia itself. BiH is currently trying to go through constitutional
     reforms that would make it possible to apply to the EU. Republika Srpska
     is rejecting much of these reforms because it does not want to give up
     any of its power to Sarajevo. Its Premier, Milorad Dodik, has made
     threats that he would secede from BiH in that case.

     Comments on ICJ opinion: Dodik said that Serbs in RS could
     "hypothetically" take Kosovo's example. "Until now, the practice was
     different, because we were always told that cannot be our path," Dodik
     said in an interview conducted after The International Court of Justice
     (ICJ) said this week that the Albanian majority in Kosovo broke no law
     by splitting from Serbia. This ICJ opinion, which was backed by the most
     powerful countries in the world ... says it is a possible practice. "Why
     would it then be a problem if somebody, let's say hypothetically even
     the Serb Republic, was to do the same in the future?", he asked, adding
     that the ruling "will not be without consequences in Bosnia." Dodik also
     said that the issue would be taken up after elections on October 3.

     Dodik went on to say:

     "An additional fight for a status that does not breach international
     law, in line with the [World Court's] opinion, is not excluded," Mr
     Dodik said, after condemning a verdict that he claimed sent "a new
     message to the Serbs that the politics of violence is successful".
     "It would be interesting to see the reaction of the international
     community if we declared independence."

     "For a long time, we in the Republika Srpska have not been happy in
     Bosnia-Herzegovina," Dodik told reporters in Banja Luka late on July 22.

     "We respect the Dayton agreement [that ended the war in Bosn ia], but
     the ICJ decision can serve us as guidance for our continuing fight over
     our status and our future."

     SERBIA - North Kosovo
     Population - Around 100,000

     Current status: The Serbs are largely concentrated North of the River
     Ibar and are resisting all integration with Kosovo. Most recently Kosovo
     has offered negotiations with the Serbs about a wide-ranging autonomy.
     The ICJ opinion has encouraged Albanians to therefore make the first
     move on getting the Serbs to accept Pristina's sovereignty.

     Comments on ICJ opinion: Negative. Obviously the ICJ opinion potentially
     opens up the idea of Northern Kosovo joining up with Serbia by seceding
     from Kosovo. But that would mean accepting the rest of Kosovo being
     independent. Belgrade would not support that.

     RUSSIA - Chechnya/Dagestan/Ingushetia/Kabardino-Balkaria

     The ICJ opinion on Kosovo is not going to change the reality on the
     ground in the Russian Caucuses. After Kosovo's independence in 2008,
     Chechen rebels hailed the decision by Kosovo to declare independence.
     However, the only factor standing in between Caucus regions and
     independence is capacity (military), not motivation or legal legitimacy.
     Therefore, it is not clear how the ICJ opinion will have any baring on
     the Caucuses. The militants in the region are not holding back from
     launching another wide scale war because they were waiting for the ICJ
     opinion to come out.

     GEORGIA - Adjara

     Population: 375,000

     Background: Adjara has long been considered "Muslim Georgia," though
     presently only about 35 percent of the region is Muslim. Most Adjarans
     still back their region's 1993 secession from Georgia, though the region
     was pulled back under central control in 2004. Adjara's uprisings have
     failed thus far because it lacks strong foreign support - Adjara has
     some Russian backing, but not as much as Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

     Popular support for independence: High

     Current Status: Autonomous Republic of Georgia

     Response to ICJ Kosovo Opinion: None
     GEORGIA - Samtskhe-Javakheti

     Population: 208,000

     Background: Closely tied to and borders Armenia.

     Popular support for independence: High

     Current Status: Autonomous Republic of

     Response to ICJ Kosovo Opinion: None

     AZERBAIJAN - Nagorno-Karabakh:

      Population: About 140,000.

     Nagorno-Karabakh Republic: Territory internationally recognized as part
     of Azerbaijan, which has not exercised power over most of the region
     since 1991. Three solutions: the region as part of Azerbaijan, the
     region as part of Armenia and an independent region. The election that
     took place in May showed a massive support for pro-independence parties.
     The Free Motherland party, led by the region's prime minister Ara
     Harutiunyan, received 46 percent of the vote and the pro-government
     Democratic Party of Artsakh 30 percent.

     Bako Sahakyan is currently the president of Nagorno-Karabakh.

     Comments on ICJ opinion:

      According to Sahakyan the advisory ruling by the International Court of
     Justice over the legality of Kosovo's independence will bring about new
     geopolitical situation.

      Further he said he did not think that ICJ's ruling over Kosovo will
     seriously affect the works by OSCE MG, but even if it does, Karabakh
     will only welcome it. Source

     If the recognition of Kosovo's independence facilitates the
     international recognition of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, we will
     certainly welcome this, President of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic Bako
     Sahakyan said during a press-conference in Stepanakert July 23.
      
     MACEDONIA - Albanians:

     Population: 509,000 Albanians, 22% of the country (EU sponsored census).
     They are mainly in the north-west of the country.

     A civil war was fought between government and ethnic Albanian
     insurgents, mostly in the north and west of the country, between March
     and June 2001. The war ended with the intervention of a NATO ceasefire
     monitoring force. Under the terms of the Ohrid Agreement, the government
     agreed to devolve greater political power and cultural recognition to
     the Albanian minority. The Albanian side agreed to abandon separatist
     demands and to fully recognise all Macedonian institutions. In addition,
     according to this accord, the Albanian National Liberation Army (NLA)
     were to disarm and hand over their weapons to a NATO force. It has
     stayed quiet since then, but weapon caches have been found this year.

     Democratic Union for Integration (among which many members of the NLA)
     and Democratic Party of Albanians are the two main Albanian parties in
     Macedonia.  Albanian political parties in Macedonia are active in the
     pursuit of even greater political and national rights for the Albanian
     minority of Macedonia such as the official use of the Albanian language
     in local administration, proportional representation in the government
     and the right to higher education in mother-tongue.

     The Albanians in Macedonia are still very angry with the Macedonian
     government, as their situation has not drastically improved. There is a
     better political representation of the Albanians, but there are still
     tensions between the two ethnicities.

     Albanians in Macedonia / PP: Rafiz Haliti of the DUI [Democratic Union
     for Integration - BDI in Albanian] believes that the verdict will have a
     positive effect on the whole region.

     The verdict has shown that the court is not under any political
     influence, Haliti says.

     The DPA [Democratic Party of Albanians - PDSh in Albanian] shares a
     similar view.

     The International Court verdict is historic not only for the Albanians,
     but the entire region, as well. I hope that it will bring stabilization
     and peace to the region, DPA Chairman Menduh Thaci says.

     TIER V

     GEORGIA - Abkhazia
     Population: ~200,000

     Background: Sporadic conflict and violence between ethnic Abkhaz and
     Georgians since the the fall of the Soviet Union.Fully seceded from
     Georgia and established independence following the August 2008
     Russia-Georgia war

     Popular support for independence: High

     Current Status: Effectively seceded, recognized as indepedent by Russia,
     Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Naura. Russia is of course the primary patron,
     with 1-5,000 troops stationed in a military base in the breakaway
     territory.

     Response to ICJ Kosovo Opinion: The conclusion of The Hague
     International Court of Justice that Kosovo's declaration of independence
     does not contradict international law confirms the right of nations to
     self-determination, de facto Abkhazian Prime Minister Sergey Shamba said
     on July 23. "This [the conclusion] gives the arguments of the Abkhazian
     side more weight," Apsnypress quoted Shamba as saying. However the de
     facto Prime Minister said that "considering the double standards of
     Western politicians, even if Abkhazia applies to The Hague International
     Court I am not sure that the same kind of decision would be made."
     http://www.messenger.com.ge/issues/2156_july_26_2010/2156_mzia.html

     GEORGIA - South Ossetia

     Population: 70,000

     Background: Sporadic conflict and violence between ethnic Ossetians and
     Georgians since the the fall of the Soviet Union. Fully seceded from
     Georgia and established independence following the August 2008
     Russia-Georgia war

     Popular support for independence: High

     Current Status: Effectively seceded, recognized as indepedent by Russia,
     Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Naura. Russia is of course the primary patron,
     with 1-5,000 troops stationed in a military base in the breakaway
     territory.

     Response to ICJ Kosovo Opinion: None

     --

     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

     Marko Papic

     Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

     STRATFOR

     700 Lavaca Street - 900

     Austin, Texas

     78701 USA

     P: + 1-512-744-4094

     marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --

   George Friedman

   Founder and CEO

   Stratfor

   700 Lavaca Street

   Suite 900

   Austin, Texas 78701

   Phone  512-744-4319

   Fax  512-744-4334
</description>
    <date>2010-07-28 21:26:32</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-18 22:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1176624_re-discussion-responses-to-the-icj-opinion-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1176673</id>
    <title>RE: S3* -  MESA/CT/MIL - WikiLeaks posts huge encrypted file to Web
</title>
    <description>   Oh, I'm not saying we shouldn't watch it.

    

   We just need to watch it with a jaundiced eye and not automatically buy
   into the hype...

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marc Lanthemann
   Sent: Thursday, August 05, 2010 4:20 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: S3* - MESA/CT/MIL - WikiLeaks posts huge encrypted file to
   Web

    

   I agree with your that it's most likely not exciting info. Wikileak's
   become a world recognized brand after the leak and they probably want to
   keep it that way by building up the mystique.

   However, I think it doesn't hurt to keep an eye on this and consider all
   possible scenarios.

   On 8/5/10 3:13 PM, scott stewart wrote:

   I think you may be giving the material more weight than it deserves.  The
   stuff released to date is pretty tame and lame. I can't imagine the last
   15,000 documents being qualitatively much different  if they came from the
   same source.

   Therefore, I think this is more of a publicity stunt than anything.   I
   wonder how much money Assange has raised through this "ordeal" of being
   persecuted by the USG?

    

    

    

    

    

    

    

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marc Lanthemann
   Sent: Thursday, August 05, 2010 4:06 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: S3* - MESA/CT/MIL - WikiLeaks posts huge encrypted file to
   Web

    

   I came up with some more thoughts/points while discussing this with Sean:

     o The general guess is that Insurance contains the remaining 15k Afghan
       docs, but it could either be something more damaging or total bluff.
     o In any case the US govt wouldn't want to risk public dissemination.
       Which means they can't really arrest him, kill him or send him to a
       relaxation spa in Cuba or Poland.
     o Therefore Assange's life/liberty is somewhat important for US national
       security.
     o Pushing this reasoning forward, killing Assange would be detrimental
       for the US.
     o I don't know who would benefit from further leaks and political
       shitstorms in the US, but that person/government may have it in them
       to cap Assange.
     o The US needs to make sure nobody gets to him.
     o All in all, not a particularly brilliant self-preservation move from
       Assange.

   On 8/5/10 2:25 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

   FYI, talked to some of my CS/hacker-savvy friends. The file is encrypted
   using a 256 bit AES encryption, which is what the US government uses for
   classified documentation. There are no known weaknesses to this encryption
   and it would take longer than the lifetime of the sun to brute-force the
   code using all the supercomputers currently in existence. You'd need a
   super secret quantum computer or the biggest breakthrough in
   cryptoanalysis ever.

   Bottom line we'll only get access to the files when Wikileaks feels like
   releasing the password. This has been making lots of waves in the
   hacker/nerd community, and I spent some time browsing hacker forums for
   ideas. Serious people (as serious as webforum hackers can be) are talking
   about a sort of dead man trigger, password must be entered by Assange
   every X hours/days or the password is released.

   In any case, NSA is going to get a headache over this. It might even be a
   bluff and turn out to be Assange's randomly encrypted copy of Bambi.

   On 8/5/10 1:31 PM, Michael Wilson wrote:

   no idea what is really on

   WikiLeaks posts huge encrypted file to Web
   The Associated Press
   Thursday, August 5, 2010; 1:30 PM

   http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/05/AR2010080504526.html

   LONDON -- Online whistle-blower WikiLeaks has posted a huge encrypted file
   named "Insurance" to its website, sparking speculation that those behind
   the organization may be prepared to release more classified information if
   authorities interfere with them.

   Bloggers have noted that it's 20 times larger than the batch of 77,000
   secret U.S. military documents about Afghanistan that WikiLeaks dumped
   onto the Web last month. Contributors to tech sites such as CNet have
   speculated that the file could be a way of threatening to disclose more
   information if WikiLeaks' staffers were detained or if the site was
   attacked, although the organization itself has kept mum.

   "As a matter of policy, we do not discuss security procedures," WikiLeaks
   said Thursday in an e-mail response to questions about the 1.4 gigabyte
   file.

   Editor-in-chief Julian Assange was a bit more expansive - if equally
   cryptic - in his response to the same line of questioning in a television
   interview with independent U.S. news network Democracy Now!

   "I think it's better that we don't comment on that," Assange said,
   according to the network's transcript of the interview. "But, you know,
   one could imagine in a similar situation that it might be worth ensuring
   that important parts of history do not disappear."

   Assange, a former computer hacker, has expressed concern over his safety
   in the past, complaining of surveillance and telling interviewers that
   he's been warned away from visiting the United States.

   Since the publication of the Afghanistan files, at least one activist
   associated with the site has been questioned by U.S. authorities.
   Programmer Jacob Appelbaum, who filled in for Assange at a conference last
   month, was reportedly detained and questioned about the site by officials
   after arriving in the U.S. on a flight from the Netherlands.
   ad_icon

   U.S. officials have had harsh words for Assange, with Adm. Michael Mullen,
   chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, saying he and his colleagues had
   disclosed potentially life-threatening information and might already have
   blood on their hands.

   U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates has refused to rule out the
   possibility that Assange could be a target into the military's
   investigation into the leak.

   ---

 --

 Michael Wilson

 Watch Officer, STRAFOR

 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112

 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com

  

  

 --

 Michael Wilson

 Watch Officer, STRAFOR

 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112

 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com

  

  

 --

 Marc Lanthemann

 Research Intern

 Mobile: +1 609-865-5782

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Marc Lanthemann

 Research Intern

 Mobile: +1 609-865-5782

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Marc Lanthemann

 Research Intern

 Mobile: +1 609-865-5782

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-08-05 22:28:10</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 03:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1176673_re-s3-mesa-ct-mil-wikileaks-posts-huge-encrypted-file-to-web.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1177040</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] (more) TrapWire on Kabul Hotel Attack
</title>
    <description>   Two points here:

   1. If they were in fact dressed in Afghan police clothing it brings us
   back to the question we addressed in the afghan weekly a few weeks ago
   where there is concern about militant infiltration into the Afghan
   security forces. This definitely makes things difficult as the Afghan
   security forces are handed over the control which brings us to Sean's
   point about the fact the operation primarily ended with the NATO
   helicopters shooting down 3 men on the roof and even then there was one
   guy just going around in the hotel and it took about 2 hours to contain
   him.

   2. Also if the militants were dressed in Afghan police attire it explains
   how they managed to bypass those multiple layers of defense.

   On Wednesday, 6/29/11 9:27 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

     Nothing to confirm or refute this initial claim. But new reporting
     suggests attackers arrived dressed as Afghan police. This is standard MO
     for Taliban...and many terror groups as you know. Only thing that
     everyone agrees on right now is that this thing was meticulously
     planned, and clearly well surveilled ahead of time. This hotel has
     multiple layers of defense -- including armed guards -- and still the
     bad guys got in. We don't have a single hotel in this country with even
     10% of the security the Intercontinental had. When they decide to start
     targeting hotels here, it'll shooting fish in a barrel.

      

      

     Stormed in force out of a vehicle after one perp detonated a vest at the
     gate  (Mike, think this remains accurate?)

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-06-29 16:46:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1177040_re-alpha-more-trapwire-on-kabul-hotel-attack-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>hoor.jangda@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1177721</id>
    <title>Re: USE ME: B3 - ECON/GREECE - Governmental situation is evolving
</title>
    <description>   Lots of talk that a cabinet reshuffle is coming... might mean that Papa-C
   is out (the finance minister). If Papa-D stays, however, then it is a
   really lame concession.

   On 6/15/11 10:35 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

     needs to include the line at the bottom about potential elections

     On 6/15/11 10:26 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

       combine all the way to the bottom with the parts from STRATFOR sources

       PM and ND leader discuss all-party government, sources claim
           15 Jun 2011 (google says about 26 mins ago)
       http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43171
       Prime Minister George Papandreou held talks with main opposition New
       Democracy leader Antonis Samaras on the telephone on Wednesday, after
       a round of telephone calls with the leaders of the other political
       parties in Parliament. Their conversation lasted roughly 20 minutes.
        
       While an earlier official announcement by ND had refused to disclose
       the content of their talks before Papandreou had expressed his
       position, unnamed sources within the party [the ND] said that the
       prime minister had described the situation as extremely difficult and
       that he was prepared to consider either an all-party government or a
       broader alliance government.
        
       The same sources said that Samaras did not reject the proposal but
       made it clear that this could not work with Papandreou as prime
       minister. To this, always according to ND sources, Papandreou
       apparently replied that he was not concerned about whether he was
       prime minister.
        
       Other sources within the party announced that there would be a second
       telephone communication between the two men later on Wednesday
       afternoon.
        
       Samaras has apparently made it a condition that there is a substantial
       renegotiation of the terms of the Memorandum for the loans to Greece,
       in order to agree to an all-party government.
        
       The ND leader, who has been in continuous contact with his closest
       aides since the morning, is expected to head to his party's
       headquarters in a short while. (ANA)

       PM talks with Samaras on the phone
           15 Jun 2011 (google says about 1 hour ago)
       http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43169

       Prime Minister George Papandreou held talks with main opposition New
       Democracy leader Antonis Samaras on the telephone on Wednesday, after
       a round of telephone calls with the leaders of the other political
       parties in Parliament.
        
       Their conversation lasted roughly 20 minutes and ND refused to reveal
       any information concerning their talks before the prime minister
       addresses the public.
        
       Samaras, who has been in continuous contact with his closest aides
       since the morning, was expected to head to his party's headquarters
       after the conversation with Papandreou. (ANA)

       Tsipras calls for immediate elections in phone call with PM
           15 Jun 2011 (google says about 2 hours ago)
       http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43163

       Coalition of the Radical Left (Syriza parliamentary alliance)
       parliamentary group leader Alexis Tsipras on Wednesday called for
       immediate general elections as the only way out for the country,
       during a telephone discussion with Prime Minister George Papandreou,
       according to party sources.
        
       Papandreou called Tsipras after an extraordinary meeting with
       President of the Republic Karolos Papoulias earlier in the day, in the
       context of a round of phone calls to all political party leaders.
        
       Sources said Papandreou reiterated his government's and his own
       personal determination that the Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy Framework
       programme will be passed by parliament, to which Tsipras replied that
       Syriza remained firm in its stance that the Memorandum and the
       Medium-Term programme are catastrophic for the country, and that the
       only way out, and to the benefit of stability in Greece, is immediate
       recourse to general elections.
        
       The same sources said that neither a new meeting of the Council of
       Political Party Leaders nor a one-on-one meeting with Papandreou were
       put forward during the phone discussion.
        
       Tsipras will make statements immediately after the prime minister's
       address to the nation later on Wednesday. (ANA)

       PM meets with President, rumours abound
           by (AthensNewsWeb)             15 Jun 2011 (google says about 3
       hours ago)
       http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43133
       Prime Minister George Papandreou met with the President of the
       Republic Karolos Papoulias, on Wednesday noon, stating that this is a
       "historic moment", while Greek journalists cancelled their 24-hour
       nationwide strike, as rumours abound about the possibility of a
       coalition government or snap elections.
        
       According to government sources, the prime minister will continue on
       Wednesday his round of telephone contacts with the political party
       leaders after his extraordinary meeting with Karolos Papoulias, adding
       that Papandreou had spoken only with Communist Party of Greece (KKE)
       leader Aleka Papariga and Democratic Left leader Fotis Kouvelis before
       the meeting.
        
       This clarification comes as earlier on Wednesday, a statement by
       Papandreou before the meeting with Papoulias that he was in contact
       with the party leaders to seek consensus sparked denials of such
       telephone contacts by ND and Syriza.

        
       Papandreou, the sources continued, would make an address to the people
       later on Wednesday. The government sources left open all prospects,
       but for the time being ruled out snap elections.
        
       Earlier, Pasok MP Ntinos Vrettos asked for the government to resign so
       that a new one would be formed of publicly acclaimed experts and
       politicians.
        
       On Tuesday, Florina MP Giorgos Lianis tendered his resignation as a
       member of Pasok's central committee. Lianis is keeping his parliament
       seat and will continue to serve as an independent, leaving the ruling
       Pasok party with 155 MPs.
        
       In his resignation letter addressed to the Speaker of the Parliament
       and to Prime Minister George Papandreou, Lianis stressed that he does
       not believe anymore in the government's economic policy and that "we
       [the government] have failed and we are forced to hide the truth from
       the people".
        
       Lianis, who started his career as a journalist, was first elected to
       parliament on Pasok's ticket in 1989 and he has served as deputy
       culture minister from 1993 to 1996.
        
       Earlier on Tuesday, Pasok MP for Kozani Alekos Athanasiadis in a radio
       interview said that he would vote against the medium-term programme.
        
       "I will not vote for the medium-term programme and I assume my
       responsibilities," Athanasiadis said.
        
       The government on Thursday tabled in parliament a medium-term fiscal
       strategy framework for the economy envisaging a new round of severe
       austerity measures designed to bring in overall revenues of 28.259
       billion euros by 2015, as well as a 50 billion euros privatisation
       programme. The programme is scheduled to be put to vote in the
       300-member chamber on June 28.

       ND denies reports of Samaras meeting with PM aide
           15 Jun 2011 (google says about 5 hours ago)
       http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43150
       Main opposition New Democracy categorically denied on Wednesday
       rumours appearing on several blogs and websites of a meeting on
       Tuesday between ND leader Antonis Samaras and a representative of
       Prime Minister George Papandreou.
        
       In a statement, ND press officer Yiannis Michelakis called the rumours
       "absurd" and unworthy of denial.
        
       ND further denied any telephone contact whatsoever between Samaras and
       Papandreou. (ANA)

       On 06/15/2011 03:53 PM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

         STRATFOR sources in Greece:

         Papandreou is in contact with other political leaders for some kind
         of broader consensus, maybe even some form of coalition government. 
         Tthe elections scenario is also at the forefront if no consensus is
         reached.
         A PASOK MP Mr Dinos Vrettos, asked today for a total reshuffling of
         the government, putting well known personalities from a broader
         spectrum in the new government.

         Papandreou in talks with Samaras about a coalition governement. They
         are looking at the possibility of a  "national salvation" government
         without Papandreou as  a prime minister. A prerogative of such a
         governement will probably be a renegotiation of the austerity
         measures. There being no time for bargaining now, first they would
         pass the measures through parliament and then try to renegotiate
         some of the measures (taxes mostly).

         --
         Marko Papic

         STRATFOR Analyst
         C: + 1-512-905-3091
         marko.papic@stratfor.com

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com


 --
 Marko Papic
 Senior Analyst
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 + 1-512-905-3091 (C)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
 www.stratfor.com
 @marko_papic
</description>
    <date>2011-06-15 18:11:44</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2011-03-05 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1177721_re-use-me-b3-econ-greece-governmental-situation-is-evolving-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>watchofficer@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1180377</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION - Insight on Iranian intentions in negotiations
</title>
    <description>   Question: when we talk about our continued desire to get out of Iraq, do
   we actually intend (at least publicly/legally) to fully withdraw these
   final 50,000 troops, ever? Or if not "ever," in the next five-10 years?
   Not familiar with what the SOFA mandates must be done once our combat
   troops are all out. And obviously the answer would have a huge effect on
   these negotiations.

   Do we really "need" to pull them out, or would it not be that huge of a
   strain on our military to maintain troops there, just like we do in
   Europe, Korea, and tons of other places?

   Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     There isn't much time to do anything with the remaining troops. They are
     leaving one way or another. Iran knows that. Also, the only situation
     that I can see upsetting the drawdown schedule is massive violence
     combined with the various factions rapidly hurling into a direction
     opposite to that of a power-sharing formula. The talks are not going
     anywhere but no sign that these guys are about to say fuck it. Also,
     note that July was the deadliest month in terms of attacks since 2008.
     But U.S. forces continue to drawdown and ahead of schedule. Iran is also
     not interested in creating problems right now because it doesn't have
     the Shia house in order with al-Maliki feuding with al-Hakim/al-Sadr.

     The key issue is therefore the 50k troops that will be left behind. Even
     then the Iranians don't have to do anything necessarily. Just play
     around with U.S. perceptions. They know that DC needs to pull them out
     but can't. Not without creating a vacuum that Tehran would exploit. So,
     they say we can let you go with assurances if you give us what we want,
     which is regime security, lifting of sanctions, and recognition of IRI's
     regional role. Hence the bit about holding them hostage. That said, do
     note that the al-Sadrites said recently that they will not tolerate any
     long-term American bases in country even in Kurdistan. So Iran has that
     option as well. but really their goal is to play with U.S. perceptions
     to get what they want. They won't need to do much more unless the U.S.
     says the 50K are digging in for the long haul.
     Link: themeData
     Link: colorSchemeMapping

      

      

     On 8/2/2010 10:14 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

       I think it's a bit of both.  The demands outlined here make sense. At
       the same time, iran will want to convey the message that it has the
       upper hand and the US needs to be the one to make the first move.
        This is why I'd like a better understanding of what can Iran actually
       do to the remaining troops in Iraq to upset the withdrawal or hold the
       leftover forces hostage?
       On Aug 2, 2010, at 8:44 AM, Rodger Baker wrote:

         if these are part of backchannel messaging to DC, how do we
         interpret these? as accurate assessments of iran's views, or as the
         position Iran wants people in the US admin and policy positions to
         think is the iranian position?
         On Aug 2, 2010, at 8:20 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

           Please read the two pieces of insight below.  They both come from
           the same source, who (I believe)  has used this communication link
           through S4 in attempt to send messages to the US administration. I
           believe this message below is being transmitted through a number
           of backchannels.
           I think this is important for us to publish in an article so we
           can better define the Iranian position in this stage of the
           negotiations.  It is clear that the Iranian priority is Iraq in
           these nuclear negotiations, which should come as no surprise to
           STRATFOR.  My biggest question is, are the Iranians overestimating
           their leverage over the remaining US troops in Iraq?  Perhaps
           there is an Iranian contingency plan that we haven't fully
           considered?  Overall, the Iranians are not under any great
           pressure to concede anything big right now. It's up to the US to
           answer to their demands in Iraq, and it's unclear to me whether
           the US is really that much of a blocker to what Iran wants to
           achieve in Iraq right now. It's also unclear to what extent Iran
           would cooperate in allowing in inspectors again and in temproarily
           freezing enrichment.  
           PUBLICATION: for analysis
           ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources
           SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Iranian diplomat -- strongly suspected of
           using S4 as backchannel to US admin
           SOURCE  Reliability :  D
           ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3 
           DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
           SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
           Iran has informed the USA through back channels about its
           perspective on resolving the current standoff with regard to the
           Iranian nuclear program. The Iranian package includes the
           following:
           1. Iran wants the US to cease its support to secessionist ethnic
           groups in Iran, namely the Balochs in Balochistan-Sistan and Arabs
           in Khuzistan (Ahwas), in addition to Mujahidin e-Khalq.
           2. Iran will suspend uranium enrichment for a year.
           3. Iran will give international inspectors access to its nuclear
           sites.
           4. Iran will allow US troops to withdraw smoothly from Iraq.
           5. The US gives Iran a free hand in Iraq and allows it to form the
           cabinet of its choice.

           The source believes Iran has the upper hand over the US, because
           the Obama administration's main concern is to ensure a peaceful
           and disruption free withdrawal from Iraq. Iran can make this
           happen, otherwise it can easily transform US troops there into
           hostages. The Iranians strongly feel that the fate of US troops in
           Iraq lies within their hands. s Iran has the capacity to make or
           unmake president Obama.

           The Iranians have told the Americans that they will not go for
           Allawi's prime ministership. They very much prefer the weak
           character of Nuri al-Maliki, whom they can easily use to achieve
           their goals in Iraq.  Iran is quite hopeful that al-Maliki will
           become next prime minister because Ayatollah Ali Sistani has
           quietly endorsed his candidacy. He says the reappointment of
           Maliki will neutralize the aspirations in Iraq of Syria, Turkey
           and Saudi Arabia. Iran will not compromise on Iraq. It will delay
           its nuclear program but it will not abandon it and they have made
           this matter absolutely clear to the Americans. He thinks Iran will
           prevail.

             On 7/30/2010 9:59 AM, Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

               PUBLICATION: analysis
               ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources
               SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Iranian diplomat
               SOURCE  Reliability :  D
               ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
               DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
               SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
               ** This supports my earlier assumption that Iran still feels
               like it has enough leverage in other places to avoid making
               any real concessions in this next round of talks.
               There is nothing the Iranians like more than discussing their
               nuclear program.  Iran is keenly interested in negotiating its
               nuclear options. He adds that "we are only interested in the
               process of negotiation and do not intend to make concessions
               that may harm our strategic nuclear objectives." He says the
               Iranians feel quite safe as long as the West engages them in
               talks. Talking is one thing and reaching firm agreements that
               the Iranians will respect is another thing.

               The source says the Iranians can withstand as much pressure as
               the West can apply. The  Iranian leadership's assessment is
               that neither the US nor Israel will attack them, because the
               repercussions for the US/Israel will be beyond their ability
               to withstand. He says it would not make much sense for the US
               to escalate militarily if they are so desperate to downsize
               their miliarty presence in Iraq. He says Ahmadinejad chose to
               sound concerned when he told Press TV last week that the US
               will launch war against two countries in the Middle East.
               Ahmadinejad wanted to give the impression that he is concerned
               and that Iran may be willing to make serious concessions. His
               real aim was to get the US to engage Iran and give it more
               time until it achieves its nuclear objectives. He says
               Ahmadinejad is basing his assumptions on the seeming
               conviction that the West will limit its response to diplomatic
               and economic sanctions. He says the US may use Israel to send
               signals to Iran by authorizing the Israelis to hit at
               Hizbullah in Lebanon. The Iranians are serious about talks but
               they are not serious about making concessions that can
               undermine their nuclear abmitions. Iran's decision om this
               matter is strategic and irreversible.
</description>
    <date>2010-08-02 16:40:08</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-05 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1180377_re-discussion-insight-on-iranian-intentions-in-negotiations-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bayless.parsley@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1180386</id>
    <title>Re: BP Oil Spill
</title>
    <description>   Dear Sir,

   While we referred to the incident as "a disaster on the BP- and
   Transocean-operated Deepwater Horizon oilrig April 20," we frequently
   referred directly to BP because it is taking lead in the emergency
   response and attempts to plug the leak. The blow-out-preventer that failed
   was built by Cameron, and the cementing that had recently been completed
   was done by Halliburton. The investigation will doubtless cast light on a
   number of service providers, and by the time the incident is over, every
   company remotely involved will have its practices affected in some way.

   I hope this clarifies our references to BP. Thank you for reading and
   writing in.

   Best from Austin,

   Matt Gertken

   Analyst
   STRATFOR


 markstan sent a message using the contact form at 
 https://www.stratfor.com/contact.

 I have noticed in the US that BP is continually mentioned as being 
 responsible and whilst they have not tried to get off the hook, I would have

 expected that Stratfor would have included that Transnational operated the 
 rig on behalf of BP and are in reality the ones responsible for the clean
 up, 
 now I suspect that transnational's pockets are in no way big enough to cover

 the costs in question. But I believe you should have included it in your 
 article.



  
</description>
    <date>2010-05-07 15:47:11</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1180386_re-bp-oil-spill-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>matt.gertken@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mark@stanhope.org.uk</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1180729</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT- PKK/ Ocalan
</title>
    <description>   pls ask how the power dynamic works between Ocalan and Karayalin...
   especially when it comes to the wishes of the more radical European
   factions. Who has more clout when it comes to actual military operations.
    Not disputing that Ocalan is still the spiritual leader of PKK.
   what is AKP offering PKK in return for keeping the ceasefire through the
   referendum? how long does PKK plan to maintain the ceasefire?
   On Aug 18, 2010, at 1:18 PM, Michael Wilson wrote:

     CODE: N/A
     PUBLICATION: N/A
     ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor source in Iraqi-Kurdistan
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Kurdish journalist well connected with PKK and
     Kurdish officials. Some times he spends afew nights in Qandil with PKK
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
     DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
     HANDLER: Yerevan

     The source says it's a strategic mistake for anyone or government to
     think that Ocalan has lost it's clout over the PKK. He says Ocalan is
     not just a leader but is a spiritual one who has been able to hold the
     Pkk together for years despite being in Prrsion. He added that Ocalan is
     just like Sheikh Ahmed Yassin of Hamas, despite being in prison, still
     he was the leader and his directives were considered.

     He also said all rhe developments happening in Turkey now is because of
     Ocalan' strategies  and tactics to make the government move about the
     Kurdish issue. He also claimed that if Ocalan had died, then pkk had
     long been collapsed from in side.

     He said now pkk is following a new stratgy which is sanctioned by Ocalan
     which is the strategy of fighting and then give a temporal cease fire to
     both make government think that they are still there and make them to
     talk to them, which getting international attention.

     He believed that in From October the kurdish issue will see big
     attention in Turkey.

     The source is in Erbil right now, willl come back and talk  in person 
     intensively about this and pkk future plans.

     If you have any specific questions, let me know.

     Sent from my iPhone

     --
     Michael Wilson
     Watch Officer, STRATFOR
     Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
     Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-08-18 20:25:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-15 20:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1180729_re-insight-pkk-ocalan-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1181111</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - GREECE/ECON - Risks Abound for Austerity Vote
</title>
    <description>   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE: EL501
   ATTRIBUTION: Greek media sources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Confed partner
   SOURCE  Reliability : A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Marko

   There is a vote for the mid-term plan on the 29th and another vote on the
   application law (of the plan) on the 30th of June.
   Chances are it will pass. There are 2 MPs that are still against it (but
   appear to be less "adamant" about it) and some unknown quantities (another
   2-3 I would say) that are "suspects".
   But nobody is really certain yet! 
   There is a 2day general strike for the 28th and 29th and there will be
   demosntrations in front of the parliament. This could play a-negative-
   part, if there are too many people, and/or some violence etc.
   Best

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-06-27 16:00:17</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2011-03-05 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1181111_insight-greece-econ-risks-abound-for-austerity-vote-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>watchofficer@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1183539</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - AUSTRALIA - Election - CN65
</title>
    <description>   The election is becoming difficult to call, though the sudden and
   extremely rapid rise of the opposition in the past few months doesn't bode
   well for Labor, though its support, as he mentions, was thought to still
   be greater even as little as a month ago. Obviously we aren't going to try
   to call the election. Here is our take on it from Neptune report:

   In the run-up to federal elections Aug 21, Australia's ruling Labor Party
   and Prime Minister Julia Gillard remain ahead of the opposition
   Liberal-National Coalition and its leader Tony Abbott, but the gap has
   narrowed dramatically in the past month. The Labor Party is still reeling
   after ditching its previous leader, Kevin Rudd, watering down its proposal
   to impose a tax on the windfall profits of mining companies and struggling
   to come up with a credible bid to create a regional processing center for
   asylum seekers. The election is not likely to affect the major
   geopolitically relevant trends: Australia will remain financially in a
   better position than most developed economies, it will maintain its
   support for the U.S.-led International Security Assistance Force in
   Afghanistan, and it will continue to benefit economically from China's
   growth while limiting Chinese influence in Australia. However, the
   election will impact the proposed mining super-tax, which could affect the
   country's ability to acquire, or leverage, foreign investment in its
   resources development. Critics say the law, which would not take effect
   until 2012, would drive away foreign investment, while proponents say it
   would help fix the budget deficit and rebalance the economy away from
   foreign investment-driven growth. Abbott has proposed scrapping the
   super-tax altogether while Gillard is sticking to her moderated version.

   Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

     SOURCE: CN65
     ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
     natural resources
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator.  Source is 
     well-connected politically, militarily and economically.  He has become
     a
     private businessman helping foreign companies with M&amp;As
     PUBLICATION: Yes but with no attribution
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
     DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Jen
     Please find herewith some political background analysis from John Black,
     former Labor Party senator for Queensland.
     There are very interesting things happening here, most notably a cabinet
     leak which clearly came from the Rudd camp in the ALP.  Please see this
     article by Lenore Taylor (who is hard left, and therefore not from my
     side).
     http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/opinion/politics/gillards-credibility-takes-a-hit-and-theres-not-a-thing-she-can-do-20100728-10w35.html?autostart=1
     You should also listen to the vodcast by Tim Lester on the link.
     There is also a Newspoll out showing that Abbott and Gillard are level
     pegging on approval ratings for the first time.  If correct, this
     presages a swing to the Opposition in about a week or so.  Also,
     Sportsbet announced it had taken $25,000 of bets on the Coalition since
     the weekend, but not a single dollar on Labor!  
     http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-election/gillard-gets-the-wobbles-with-bookies-20100729-10x9f.html
     I really can't pick this campaign at all.  I thought Labor would win,
     but now I'm not sure.
</description>
    <date>2010-07-29 15:00:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1183539_re-insight-australia-election-cn65-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>matt.gertken@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1184240</id>
    <title>Re: S3* -  MESA/CT/MIL - WikiLeaks posts huge encrypted file to Web
</title>
    <description>   This is a pretty cool tool to come out of the Wikileaks data
   http://ekstrabladet.dk/indsigt/warlogs-1/

   Nate Hughes wrote:

     True, but gotta watch for the ideologies. Not above breaking the law or
     anything like that, but pretty fanatical in their beliefs. This
     wikileaks guy talks a lot about 'justice' and shit like that...

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: Thu, 5 Aug 2010 16:10:08 -0500 (CDT)
     To: 'Analyst List'&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: RE: S3* - MESA/CT/MIL - WikiLeaks posts huge encrypted file to
     Web

     They try to portray themselves as all idealistic, but by and large, the
     hacker community is pretty mercenary. I can see him selling copies to
     intelligence agencies to make some quick scratch and build his server
     farm....  

      

     The Chinese and Russians don't leak intelligence they vacuum it up.

      

      

      

      

     From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Marc Lanthemann
     Sent: Thursday, August 05, 2010 5:01 PM
     To: Analyst List
     Subject: Re: S3* - MESA/CT/MIL - WikiLeaks posts huge encrypted file to
     Web

      

     I don't think that the copies can be purchased. It's the complete
     opposite of wikileaks' mission. They are as a public dissemination
     organization, not a private intelligence agency. Selling information to
     private parties is just unthinkable to those guys, they seek the glory
     of being whistle blowers, not monetary profit. They think of themselves
     as the freedom of press' Robin Hoods, taking info from the rich and
     powerful to give to the poor and ignorant masses.

     If this is, as you said, a media operation, they wouldn't risk the
     Chinese or the Russians leaking that info and taking away their credit.
     Assuming it's similar to the previous leaks, the biggest damage those
     documents can do is by being leaked. It's not like the PRA is going to
     learn anything about out tactics they didn't know already. So China
     would only pay for this document for its potentially destabilizing
     value. This implies some sort of dissemination. If someone is going to
     leak that document it's wikileaks, ergo they won't give/sell it to
     anyone else.

     On 8/5/10 3:43 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     The sources and methods concern is already out the window. This material
     is already out there and I'm certain that anybody who wanted to purchase
     it on the side from Assange could do so.  I'm sure the Chinese and
     Russians already have complete copies, probably even the ISI has bought
     a copy.

      

     Now the issue is really more about damage control, and spinning the
     perception of events in the USGs favor.  

      

      

      

     From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Sean Noonan
     Sent: Thursday, August 05, 2010 4:36 PM
     To: Analyst List
     Subject: Re: S3* - MESA/CT/MIL - WikiLeaks posts huge encrypted file to
     Web

      

     I'm not sure what you're saying here--- if you mean that Assange wants
     this to appear like a Keanue Reeves movie you are right on.  In terms of
     the US concerns, i'm pretty confident in my analysis.  There's no crazy
     conspiracy here, but the US is going to do what it can to limit and
     protect that information.  The key is protecting sources and methods. 
     While there was nothing crazy in the last file dump, it still outed
     both. I'm not saying the US is going to do any major covert operation or
     whatever to get Assange nor that they are going to be intimidated by
     this 'insurance' file.  They're going to quickly rethink how they are
     going to get him, but they're not going to be scared by this.  They
     might be more motivated to negotiate in some way. 

     Marko Papic wrote:

     I will say one thing... if you submitted this as a script to Hollywood,
     they'd say it is too ludicrous.

     Unless it was the 1990s... in which case they would cast Keanu Reeves
     as  Assange

     Sean Noonan wrote:

     I think it is actually the smartest move he could make.  The US wants
     him....pretty badly.  So, he can assume he will be pursued for arrest,
     maybe even rendition (I doubt that, and definitely doubt any
     assassination BS) wherever he goes.  Putting this file up there makes
     the US think twice about arresting him.  And Marc, you are right that
     now the US can be concerned about his well-being, especially if they
     have been given clues abou what's in the file and really don't want it
     out.  Looking at the information in the last leak, none of it was of any
     serious value (except in endangering US operatives).  Let's assume this
     is more valuable, but it's still hard to believe it is that valuable. 
     Wikileaks wants the public to think these are crazy revelations coming
     out.  For example, everything in those files people could've learned
     from reading STRATFOR, but now that it has the hype of being
     'classified' and 'leaked' more people are paying attention. 

     Even if the information is valuable enough to the US to really try to
     protect, I highly doubt whatever information this might have will be so
     damaging to the US that any foreign group or country would find it
     valuable enough to assassinate Assange.  Would any foreign intelligence
     agency or militant group dealing with the US want it leaked?  Yes,
     definitely, but it is not of such value to them to accept the risk to
     force the information out there.  At best a foreign country would offer
     him some sort of protected asylum in return for access (but would he
     accept that?  not on his ideology).

     So now the US has to figure out how to get its hand on this file, any
     other information Assange might have while having enough information for
     a prosecution and preventing the 'insurance' from being 'collected.' 
     This gives him a delay in which he can move around, maybe better protect
     himself and at worst work out a deal with the US. If the US really was
     so concerned about, he would already be in custody.  It would have to be
     truly disastrous information, and I highly doubt it is. 

     He's making a smart media ploy, and creating enough of a distraction
     that it's probably better for his personal security.  The larger his
     profile, the harder it is for US security services to arrest,
     interrogate and neutralize (I don't mean kill) him. 

     Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     I came up with some more thoughts/points while discussing this with
     Sean:

       o The general guess is that Insurance contains the remaining 15k
         Afghan docs, but it could either be something more damaging or total
         bluff.
       o In any case the US govt wouldn't want to risk public dissemination.
         Which means they can't really arrest him, kill him or send him to a
         relaxation spa in Cuba or Poland.
       o Therefore Assange's life/liberty is somewhat important for US
         national security.
       o Pushing this reasoning forward, killing Assange would be detrimental
         for the US.
       o I don't know who would benefit from further leaks and political
         shitstorms in the US, but that person/government may have it in them
         to cap Assange.
       o The US needs to make sure nobody gets to him.
       o All in all, not a particularly brilliant self-preservation move from
         Assange.

     On 8/5/10 2:25 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     FYI, talked to some of my CS/hacker-savvy friends. The file is encrypted
     using a 256 bit AES encryption, which is what the US government uses for
     classified documentation. There are no known weaknesses to this
     encryption and it would take longer than the lifetime of the sun to
     brute-force the code using all the supercomputers currently in
     existence. You'd need a super secret quantum computer or the biggest
     breakthrough in cryptoanalysis ever.

     Bottom line we'll only get access to the files when Wikileaks feels like
     releasing the password. This has been making lots of waves in the
     hacker/nerd community, and I spent some time browsing hacker forums for
     ideas. Serious people (as serious as webforum hackers can be) are
     talking about a sort of dead man trigger, password must be entered by
     Assange every X hours/days or the password is released.

     In any case, NSA is going to get a headache over this. It might even be
     a bluff and turn out to be Assange's randomly encrypted copy of Bambi.

     On 8/5/10 1:31 PM, Michael Wilson wrote:

     no idea what is really on

     WikiLeaks posts huge encrypted file to Web
     The Associated Press
     Thursday, August 5, 2010; 1:30 PM

     http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/05/AR2010080504526.html

     LONDON -- Online whistle-blower WikiLeaks has posted a huge encrypted
     file named "Insurance" to its website, sparking speculation that those
     behind the organization may be prepared to release more classified
     information if authorities interfere with them.

     Bloggers have noted that it's 20 times larger than the batch of 77,000
     secret U.S. military documents about Afghanistan that WikiLeaks dumped
     onto the Web last month. Contributors to tech sites such as CNet have
     speculated that the file could be a way of threatening to disclose more
     information if WikiLeaks' staffers were detained or if the site was
     attacked, although the organization itself has kept mum.

     "As a matter of policy, we do not discuss security procedures,"
     WikiLeaks said Thursday in an e-mail response to questions about the 1.4
     gigabyte file.

     Editor-in-chief Julian Assange was a bit more expansive - if equally
     cryptic - in his response to the same line of questioning in a
     television interview with independent U.S. news network Democracy Now!

     "I think it's better that we don't comment on that," Assange said,
     according to the network's transcript of the interview. "But, you know,
     one could imagine in a similar situation that it might be worth ensuring
     that important parts of history do not disappear."

     Assange, a former computer hacker, has expressed concern over his safety
     in the past, complaining of surveillance and telling interviewers that
     he's been warned away from visiting the United States.

     Since the publication of the Afghanistan files, at least one activist
     associated with the site has been questioned by U.S. authorities.
     Programmer Jacob Appelbaum, who filled in for Assange at a conference
     last month, was reportedly detained and questioned about the site by
     officials after arriving in the U.S. on a flight from the Netherlands.
     ad_icon

     U.S. officials have had harsh words for Assange, with Adm. Michael
     Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, saying he and his
     colleagues had disclosed potentially life-threatening information and
     might already have blood on their hands.

     U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates has refused to rule out the
     possibility that Assange could be a target into the military's
     investigation into the leak.

     ---

 --

 Michael Wilson

 Watch Officer, STRAFOR

 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112

 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com

  

  

 --

 Michael Wilson

 Watch Officer, STRAFOR

 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112

 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com

  

  

 --

 Marc Lanthemann

 Research Intern

 Mobile: +1 609-865-5782

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Marc Lanthemann

 Research Intern

 Mobile: +1 609-865-5782

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

 www.stratfor.com

      

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

      

     --

     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

     Marko Papic

     Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

     STRATFOR

     700 Lavaca Street - 900

     Austin, Texas

     78701 USA

     P: + 1-512-744-4094

     marko.papic@stratfor.com

      

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --

 Marc Lanthemann

 Research Intern

 Mobile: +1 609-865-5782

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-08-06 15:47:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 03:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1184240_re-s3-mesa-ct-mil-wikileaks-posts-huge-encrypted-file-to-web.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>nathan.hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>benjamin.preisler@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1187951</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - TURKEY - Ankara's pov on DC reviewing its net	assessment
	on Turkey - TR1
</title>
    <description>   Of course but note the following comments, which are telling:

   yes, it was a tough conversation because both issues, the iran vote and
   the gaza attack, were very recent and hot.
   needless to say, this brings many advantages and challenges. i think the
   state dpt meeting on turkey was held within this context.

   The last line is an acknowledgment that DC is in the process of reviewing
   its Turkey net assessment.

   On 8/18/2010 9:50 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

     the PR guy likes to show everything under control. Having trouble with
     the US the last thing that AKP wants right now. They are already
     disappointed with the lack of US backing following the flotilla crisis.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Antonia Colibasanu" &lt;colibasanu@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Wednesday, August 18, 2010 4:21:06 PM
     Subject: INSIGHT - TURKEY - Ankara's pov on DC reviewing its net
     assessment        on Turkey - TR1

 CODE: TR1
 PUBLICATION: Not Applicable
 DESCRIPTION: Chief foreign affairs adviser to Erdogan
 ATTRIBUTION: Not Applicable
 SOURCE RELIABILITY:  A
 ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
 SPECIAL HANDLING: Not Applicable
 DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
 HANDLER: Kamran

     the ultimatum report is simply bogus. there was no such thing. whoever
     that us official who spoke (i have my guess!) to the ft is simply
     misconstruing the facts. yes, it was a tough conversation because both
     issues, the iran vote and the gaza attack, were very recent and hot.
     right now, things have considerably calmed down.
     obama called pm erdogan last week to speak about the government in iraq
     and the us plans for withdrawal. americans are happy that the iranians
     have sent a letter to the vienna group to resume talks after eid. they
     are very happy about our efforts in afghanistan. and so on.
     the flotilla attack and turkish-israeli relations remain contentious
     though the panel of inquiry has been formed but now the israelis want to
     interpret it in a different way, i.e., underestimate and reduce its
     mandate, significance, etc.
     in all of this, the us, like many others, see turkey as a stronger
     player than in the past. needless to say, this brings many advantages
     and challenges.
     i think the state dpt meeting on turkey was held within this context.

     --
     --
     Emre Dogru
     STRATFOR  
     Cell: +90.532.465.7514
     Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
     emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-08-18 15:58:47</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-16 21:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1187951_re-insight-turkey-ankara-s-pov-on-dc-reviewing-its-net.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1188949</id>
    <title>Info - Comrade J 
</title>
    <description>From FBI Hqs (not for attribution)


J had high blood pressure.

-------- Original Message --------


Easy to crank that one up and get it to pop
</description>
    <date>2010-07-09 20:28:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1188949_info-comrade-j-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1189059</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Was the shooter a Libyan?

   On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:11:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1189059_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1189178</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Maybe, or he could be the Norwegian McVeigh.

   On 7/22/11 9:26 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     Mercenary
     Contract hit

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Hoor Jangda &lt;hoor.jangda@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:25:36 -0500 (CDT)
     To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
     the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
     height.

     On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

       Was the shooter a Libyan?

       On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:30:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1189178_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1189181</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   We don't know

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:12:04 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   Was the shooter a Libyan?

   On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:13:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1189181_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1190145</id>
    <title>Re: Comrade J (CJ)
</title>
    <description>   911 call was at 7:08pm, why did they report that he died in the morning?

   Fred Burton wrote:

 According to JJ Green at WTOP (pls protect the sourcing) CJ had high
 cholesterol, high blood pressure and suffered from seasonal allergies
 (pollen).  He had lost weight, but his entertainment patio looked like a
 Georgetown bar.  Green said CJ drank wine at lunch, but did not appear
 to be a heavy drinker in his company.  The wife will continue to provide
 exclusive interviews with Green, which has pissed off Pete Earley the
 author of the book.  If we have any questions for the wife, pls let me
 know.  Thanks



  

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-07-14 20:47:15</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1190145_re-comrade-j-cj-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1190693</id>
    <title>Info - Netanyahu  ** pls look at note 
</title>
    <description>Netanyahu told a US Congressman friend in a 1x1 conversation that he
will not allow Iran to go nuclear "on his watch in Israel's back-yard"
and he intends to use every means at his disposal to see that doesn't
happen "Mossad, bunker busting bombs, whatever it takes", if need be.

Netanyahu also said in a sigh of frustration to the Congressman that he
doesn't think Obama understands the threat ("rose colored glasses" was
the exact phrase used.)

** Note -- This was a private conversation between me and Congressman,
so I would appreciate that the matter not be forwarded.  Thanks
</description>
    <date>2010-05-14 21:37:14</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1190693_info-netanyahu-pls-look-at-note-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1192666</id>
    <title>Re: [TACTICAL] MX - Targeted Assassinations
</title>
    <description>   He'll be the first killed since McVeigh once the GOP takes the Hill in
   Nov. Barry Hussein will have no choice worried about his own ass in 2012.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Wed, 08 Sep 2010 09:15:48 -0500
   To: &lt;fredburton1@att.blackberry.net&gt;; Tactical&lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [TACTICAL] MX - Targeted Assassinations
   ACLU is suing over Awlaki......

   fredburton1@att.blackberry.net wrote:

 Have confirmed that we are helping the MXs whack Zetas in MX, in the aftermath of the 72 migrants smoked.

 Note - Amazing what even the libs are capable of doing when in power.  If this was Cheney, they would be screaming war crimes and human rights abuse.  Guess its okay for the Dems.  Frankly, this will only lead to blowback against us and get cops killed in retaliation.  Dumb asses in the White House cross all political parties.

 Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
  

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-09-08 16:37:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-23 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1192666_re-tactical-mx-targeted-assassinations-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>fredburton1@att.blackberry.net</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1192707</id>
    <title>Re: MORE Re: INSIGHT - AUSTRALIA - Independents split - CN65
</title>
    <description>   I thought the original Singtel Optus-Huawei bid was killed in 2009.=C2=A0
   ASIO (Aussie intelligence) was investigating Huawei at the time.=C2=A0 Is
   there a new bid?=C2=A0 (forgive me if I missed the discussion).=C2=A0

   Also, this has been Huawei's new strategy since a bunch of their bids got
   killed in the 2000s.=C2=A0 They partner with major local telecoms
   companies--like they're trying to do with Motorola in the US now.=C2=A0
   Lena Bell wrote:

     Jennifer Richmond wrote:

       The issue is that China's Huawei is bidding to do part of the NBN, and
       the Labour government is "turning a blind eye" to it, according to
       source.=C2=A0 Source says, "They just refuse to believe what they've
       been told by the guys who know. The whole scheme is flawed. They're
       going to spend A$43 billion on this for a population of 22 million.
       That means almost A$2,000 per person. This just can't be made to work
       at anything like affordable costs to the consumer. That might be
       driving them into the arms of Huawei."

       On 9/7/2010 11:19 AM, Matt Gertken wrote:

         Chris and I were just discussing this. the plan is a national funded
         and controlled fiber optic broadband network. The security issue has
         not received nearly as much debate or discussion as the political
         debates about cost and competitiveness, even though it was
         frequently referred to during the China-Google debates. The
         criticism by some activists has been that Oz will have complete
         control over information. The complaint by national security types
         has been that a foreign sponsored hacker (such as China) would
         access a gold mine by breaking into this network, and that it should
         be coupled with a more comprehensive cyber-security plan.

         we need more info about it but here is the Oz House of Reps' latest
         report on cyber crime which was oft-cited in questions relating to
         this: =
         http://www.aph.gov.au/house/committee/coms/cybercrime/report.htm

         essentially the security risk argument is that a centrally
         administered broadband network would be more vulnerable to foreign
         attack.

         Of course will defer to Jen's source on this and would very much
         like to hear more details/specifics (or links to places to find
         them) about the security risks.

         Peter Zeihan wrote:

           how is the NBN a security risk?

           On 9/7/2010 9:44 AM, Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

             = National Broadband Network

 --=20
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director, Stratfor
 US Mobile: (512) 422-9335
 China Mobile: (86) 15801890731
 Email: richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com



  

     Hi (new OZ ADP) very interesting comment about security issues...
     definite split in the community about the costs, but a lot of
     Australians see it as a nation building imperative. The cost is high,
     but it's being compared to the railroads infrastructure (how that
     radically changed things), and something that is necessary.

     Matt, don't think Huawei is bidding (?) do you mean investing? (no press
     about this back home)
     Even if they did, the government would be very unlikely to ban
     investment... create too many waves.

     Also, in July Huawei joined forces with RMIT (a uni in Melbourne) to
     create a Next Generation Tech Training Centre (will train 1000 students
     over the next 3 years). Jobs out of this.
     I think it just launched its first Android phone in Oz this week too.

     Interestingly, Chinese-owned operator Asia Netcom used to provide
     services for OZ embassies...

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-09-08 20:15:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1192707_re-more-re-insight-australia-independents-split-cn65-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1193338</id>
    <title>[alpha] Fw: Oslo
</title>
    <description>   Trapwire

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:00:28 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Oslo

   My money's on a Libyan connection.

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 18:04:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1193338_-alpha-fw-oslo-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1194936</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - TURKEY - DC power struggle over AKP, PKK
</title>
    <description>   sorry that should say 'if it was not yet made public'
   On Aug 18, 2010, at 8:25 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     let's dig deeper to see if there is something more to it, though. This
     source is quite reliable and i know this is an issue he has a lot of
     access to... this was something he was dealing with directly while in
     Ankara last week.
      We have two competing views a) that Ocalan from prison still exercises
     enormous influence over the group and b) that Ocalan does not carry as
     much influence as before, that MIT learned that the hard way when they
     attempted to quietly negotiate a ceasefire with him months ago, and that
     Karlyan is their main guy that they can deal with, but he faces a lot of
     resistance from more radical factions in Europe.
     we may not have seen PKK ignoring Ocalan's call for ceasefire if it was
     negotiated quietly and if it was made public. Ocalan may have given the
     directive quietly to Karalyan and it was ignored until MIT came to
     Karalyan directly.  Let's be open to the alternative and see what else
     we can get from both Turkish and Kurdish sources to see what the real
     story is.
     On Aug 18, 2010, at 8:19 AM, Yerevan Saeed wrote:

       Have we ever seen any Ocalan's directives or signals to be ignored by
       PKK or Karalyan?   I really dont think so and the PKK is committed
       with any call from Ocalan and his leadership.  I am afraid I dont
       agree with what he says about PKK/Ocalan relationship. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
       To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
       Sent: Wednesday, August 18, 2010 4:06:29 PM
       Subject: Re: INSIGHT - TURKEY - DC power struggle over AKP, PKK

       i may have gotten the 6 months thing wrong..i know he said several
       months ago though. The point was that they tried to negotiate with him
       several months ago, but PKK led by Karayilan ignored him.
       I disagreed with him at first as well, but he was really adamant about
       this issue and about Karayilan. He had seen some of the internal docs
       on the ceasefire and the govt's concerns over keeping Karayilan alive.
        It's also extremely important for the AKP to ensure that the Kurds
       participate in the referendum. Sounds like they can work with
       Karayilan to make that happen, but let's see
       On Aug 18, 2010, at 3:09 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

         Interesting view on Ocalan's influence over PKK and Karayilan. I do
         not completely agree with his comments, but something to bear in
         mind. I'll check this with my sources. (Also, the bit about
         negotiating ceasefire six months ago sounds inaccurate since there
         was a ceasefire in place by then. Remember, clashes started June 1)
         The thing to watch now is PKK/BDP's decision to boycott referendum.
         Against this decision, Ocalan gave signals to loosen the boycott and
         let the Kurds to go to ballots. PKK/BDP cannot understand what he is
         aiming for. Let's see if they will implement his decision.
         Rest is not new. JITEM part is related to the ethnic clashes in
         Hatay which made the AKP gov extremely nervous, as we wrote in our
         previous piece about a possible ceasefire.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: "Michael Wilson" &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
         To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
         Sent: Wednesday, August 18, 2010 12:59:55 AM
         Subject: INSIGHT - TURKEY - DC power struggle over AKP, PKK

         PUBLICATION: analysis/background
         ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
         SOURCE DESCRIPTION: AKP's point man in DC
         SOURCE  Reliability :  B 
         ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
         DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
         SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
         There is a huge battle taking place in DC right now between the
         pro-AKP and anti-AKP forces trying to influence the admin.  I had to
         experience it first-hand today in trying to get an answer on a
         question.. turns out this split is pretty bad, with the anti-AKP
         voice having way more influence over the State dept and the
         administration. I've also been noticing in some of these defense
         policy circles discussions on TUrkey that the perception that TUrkey
         is turning extremist under AKP has taken hold. THis is also
         manifesting in the hold-up in Congress over the nomination for the
         new US ambassador to TUrkey. Because this guy is seen as closer to
         AKP as opposed to the secularist establishment, the anti-AKP and
         Israeli lobby are influencing key senators to block the vote (a
         letter from sen. brownback to clinton was leaked yesterday.)
         From conversation with the source --
         Ocalan doesn't carry influence over the PKK like he used to. AKP
         needed to contain the PKK situation before the referendum. THey were
         willing to do anything to make it happen. When they tried to
         negotiate a ceasefire 6 months ago with Ocalan (this was done
         through MIT,) Ocalan's directives to the PKK went completely
         ignored. PKK uses Ocalan when they need him. They will lament his
         treatment in prison and follow his call, etc. to benefit from his
         charisma among the Kurds, but they dont take orders from him as much
         as they did before. THis is especially true of the PKK branches in
         Germany.  The real man in charge is Murat Karayalin in Qandil. Only
         when MIT negotiated with him this time were they able to implement
         the ceasefire. (laughing) Let's just say, we are very concerned
         about Karayalin's health. I have seen some internal document
         expressing concern that the more radical factions in Germany could
         eliminate Karayalin. We need to keep him alive. He is the only one
         who will negotiate with us and who can enforce. We can't afford to
         lose him. 
         The heron videos showing a PKK assault on the Hantepe military
         outpost are very interesting.  (Videos were broadcast by Taraf
         newspaper -- the same newspaper that has printed very detailed
         videos and other evidence that supported the AKP against the
         military in all these Ergenekon/sledgehammer cases. The video shows
         the firefight, with the PKK shooting at the troops with impunity.
         The commander called backup and no one came. 7 soldiers died)  THis
         is being seen as a deep state thing in which the military turned a
         blind eye to the attack and used the casualties to escalate the PKK
         problem and try to create issues for the AKP ahead of the
         referendum. 
         The AKP is asserting its will over the military in very strong ways.
         The military appointments issue was of course a big development.
         Erdogan actually defended Basbug (former army chief of staff) for a
         long time against hte Gulenists. The Gulenists are much more
         anti-military, while AKP realizes a need to control the military,
         but still work with them. However, when evidence came out on
         Operation Cage, which was an op led by Basbug to tarnish AKP and
         Gulen movement, Erdogan dropped him. When deciding the new military
         appointments, Basbug invited Erdogan to the security council
         meeting. Erdogan told him, no.. I don't need to go. You guys come up
         with a list, and I'll decide yes or no.' Erdogan then went to a
         meeting with some actress. THis was a huge sign.. it showed Erdogan
         has authority over them.
         The big issue for the AKP is to rein in the JITEM, the gendarmarie
         intel and ct agency. JITEM is pretty much the embodiment of deep
         state. Erdogan wants it completely purged.
         US support on the Kurdish issue will come.. THis is part of the deal
         TUrkey has with the US on Iraq. If Turkey gets what it wants from
         the US on PKK, it will be a lot more cooperative in other areas,
         including the Caucasus. I'll get more details on what that deal
         entails.
         Turkey will not compromise on Allawi. Erdogan even sent his own
         personal advisors to develop ALlawi's propaganda campaign and build
         up Sunni, Shia and Kurdish support for his bloc. THey are investing
         a lot into this. 
         So far the polls show about 54% in favor of hte referendum. Still
         hard to say that it will pass, but Erdogan sounds confident. THere
         are a lot of promises being made to Kurdish areas for example. He
         tells them I will give you Kurdish channels, courses, etc. whatever
         you want to support democratic freedom, and more changes will come
         when we change the constitution, if you side with us and vote for
         change instead of voting no with the secularists.

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com


         -- 
         --
         Emre Dogru
         STRATFOR  
         Cell: +90.532.465.7514 
         Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
         emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
         www.stratfor.com

       -- 
       Yerevan Saeed
       STRATFOR 
       Phone: 009647701574587
       IRAQ
</description>
    <date>2010-08-18 15:26:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1194936_re-insight-turkey-dc-power-struggle-over-akp-pkk-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1196005</id>
    <title>RE: DISCUSSION/ BUDGET - Engaging with the Hezzies
</title>
    <description>Please keep your lips to yourself. 



-----Original Message-----
From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
On Behalf Of Fred Burton
Sent: Friday, March 06, 2009 6:02 PM
To: 'Analyst List'
Subject: RE: DISCUSSION/ BUDGET - Engaging with the Hezzies

BiBi will kill Nasrallah unless the U.S. can insure HZ is in their box.
&gt;From my lips to your ears.   

-----Original Message-----
From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
On Behalf Of Reva Bhalla
Sent: Friday, March 06, 2009 3:01 PM
To: Analyst List
Subject: DISCUSSION/ BUDGET - Engaging with the Hezzies

sorry, im trying to hurry up b/c it's late in the day. the insight that i
sent out with ME1's and my back and forth explains it all.

1. The British are engaging HEzbollah.
2. this was a move coordinated with the US 3. that's a big break from Bush
policy, which was to completely isolate Hezbollah 4. US may not be
politically ready to deal with HZ, but it is ready to engage with syria,
which it's already doing.
5. The Syrians are in a complex situation right now, very clearly and
publicly engaging with the US, talking again with the Turks about wanting to
restart talks with the Israelis, all the while trying to reassure the
Iranians that they're not straying too far.
6. When it comes down to it, though, the syrians do not want Hezbollah
militarily empowered. They know they're going to have make some concessions,
but the direction they want to take is emboldening HZ as a POLITICAL
movement, allowing Damascus room to negotiate with US, Israel, Saudi  in
cutting off HZ's militant arm.
7. According to our HZ insight, these discussions on moving more political
are underway already int he organization, which can lead to rifts

and that's what i call chaaaaaange, baby!


On Mar 6, 2009, at 2:54 PM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

&gt; this needs discussion before it can become a piece
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; Reva Bhalla wrote:
&gt;&gt; Writing up an analysis on the UK move to engage Hezbollah in 
&gt;&gt; coordination with US moves to engage Syria, and what that means for 
&gt;&gt; Iran
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; have a lot of info to organize, will try to get this out within the 
&gt;&gt; hr medium-length
</description>
    <date>2009-03-07 00:36:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-27 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1196005_re-discussion-budget-engaging-with-the-hezzies-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1196090</id>
    <title>Comrade J's Death by Choking
</title>
    <description>   From an FBI source  (protect source origin) --

   Thanks Fred.  I was beating around the bush about this when we were last
   discussing as I knew from talking to Helen what the cause of death was. 
   For some reason she did not want this to be released and was happy for it
   to be a "heart attack".  That's why I was so insistent it was not
   suspicious.  Sergie was  a bit of a drinker, although not your usual
   fifth-of-vodka-a-night Russian;  It is not unusual for people who choke
   out like this to have a few cocktails and glasses of wine under their belt
   as it helps relax the reflux muscles, leading to the choking.  It's why if
   you ever see this at a restaurant, it's always a fat white guy. 
</description>
    <date>2010-09-20 16:04:29</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1196090_comrade-j-s-death-by-choking-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1196861</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Once we do know, then we will know who was behind it.

   Until then, this is all conjecture and opinion.  And you know what
   opinions are like.

   On 7/22/11 9:13 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     We don't know

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:12:04 -0500 (CDT)
     To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
     Was the shooter a Libyan?

     On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:15:11</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1196861_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1198817</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - IRAN - on the Razaei assassination
</title>
    <description>   If two MC's were used, pro intel hit.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Tue, 26 Jul 2011 10:45:45 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - IRAN - on the Razaei assassination
   I hope we're not going by any theory.  I think three are equally
   plausible:  Israel/US hired out assassination, IRGC/Basij enforcement,
   OC-type dispute.  Can't prove anything one way or another, except the
   sponsors thought it important enough to invest some resources. 

   On 7/26/11 10:33 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     Wait aren't we going by the theory that the U.S. and/or Israel killed
     the guy?

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Tue, 26 Jul 2011 10:30:30 -0500 (CDT)
     To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - IRAN - on the Razaei assassination
     I would find it hard to believe Iranian govt intel agents killed the
     wrong guy. 

     On 7/26/2011 10:27 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       Not necessarily the wrong guy---an electronics engineer could have an
       important role in gov't/defense/nuclear programs.  But I also don't
       know what his expertise specifically was.

       Given all the past research we did on different scientists, I tend to
       believe that most of the scientists at major universities are more
       associated with the government, especially if it's something that
       could play a role in national interest---and power generation at
       minimum is one. 

       Kamran, if you have something that shows the bio of another guy with a
       similar name and some bio info on this guy, that would be pretty
       relevant. 
       On 7/26/11 9:39 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

         That is what I am hearing.

         Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
         Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
         Date: Tue, 26 Jul 2011 09:32:18 -0500 (CDT)
         To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
         ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
         Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - IRAN - on the Razaei assassination
         So the wrong guy was killed? 

         On 7/26/2011 9:27 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

           Not sure about that but R was not a nuclear scientist. He has been
           confused with another person with the same name.

           Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
           Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
           Date: Tue, 26 Jul 2011 09:23:49 -0500 (CDT)
           To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
           ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
           Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - IRAN - on the Razaei assassination
           ** Is this accurate? 

           Razaei was not a nuclear scientist but that did not seem to
           matter, since all graduate students in scientific fields in Iran
           are associated with the ministry of defense.

           On 7/26/2011 8:56 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

             Razaei was not a nuclear scientist but that did not seem to
             matter, since all graduate students in scientific fields in Iran
             are associated with the ministry of defense. 

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-26 18:08:51</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1198817_re-alpha-insight-iran-on-the-razaei-assassination-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1204635</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Qaddaffi out-sources jobs, going back to Carlos the Jackal.

   Ck the OS about 3-4 weeks ago, about Qaddaffi hiring mercs.

   The suspect could be ex-French Foreign Legion.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:30:48 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   Maybe, or he could be the Norwegian McVeigh.

   On 7/22/11 9:26 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     Mercenary
     Contract hit

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Hoor Jangda &lt;hoor.jangda@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:25:36 -0500 (CDT)
     To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
     the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
     height.

     On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

       Was the shooter a Libyan?

       On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:34:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1204635_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1209471</id>
    <title>Fwd: Re: Zaur
</title>
    <description>   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: Re: Zaur                                       
      Date: Sun, 05 Dec 2010 23:21:48 -0600                
      From: Lauren Goodrich &lt;lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com&gt; 
        To: Zaur Hasanov &lt;hasanovz@yahoo.com&gt;              
        CC: Lauren Goodrich &lt;goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;        

   Hello Zaur!
   Here are my answers. I hope they reach you in time. Let me know if you
   have any follow-up questions.
   Lauren

   We are also thinking on wikileaks in Azerbaijan. What's your take on it, I
   mean of Stratfor?

    

   This latest round of WikiLeaks of more than 250,000 U.S. State Department
   diplomatic cables has revealed very little that was not previously known.
   There has not been a single Top Secret report like the Pentagon Papers of
   1971. Each of the WikiLeaks releases have instead been fairly low-level
   reports of even lower levels of classification-despite the cables being
   classified.

    

   The leaks will not affect much in ways of operation, but are instead
   diplomatically embarrassing. The cables reveal what is widely known in the
   world - that countries' representatives act one way and say another. The
   cables cut through much of the diplomatic and theatrical dialogues seen in
   public and instead lay out much of the reality between countries. But such
   frank discussions are meant to be held in confidence since there are
   larger games and balances to be held outside of a bilateral discussion.
   This is how diplomacy and the real back-channel negotiations work.

    

   Do you see in a purposeful leak by US officials or it is happened really?

    

   The U.S. at this time can not afford to have such a scandal as its
   relationships around the world are already strained, so STRATFOR believes
   that the leaks are genuine instead of purposefully orchestrated.

    

   Also what do you think Azerbaijan  can expect from the leak? There are
   tons of stories not published yet. The leak already irritates officials
   here. If wikileak will continue to publish stories about high ranking
   officials it can damage the relations between US and Azerbaijan.  

    

   The WikiLeaks on Azerbaijan were interesting in that there were two sets
   of leaks that will effect Azerbaijan's public perception.

    

   The first set of important leaks is the US officials in Baku comparing
   President Ilham Aliyev to the "Godfather", saying that "the Aliyev
   administration has developed an 'organised crime' image in some quarters,
   leading some analysts to see Ilham Aliyev at times in a mafia-like role."
   This is a definite blast against the leadership in Azerbaijan at a time
   when the U.S. State department was already struggling with getting an
   Ambassador sent to Baku. So this leak could be another sign to Baku of the
   U.S.'s lack of taking Azerbaijan seriously. Interestingly, this
   terminology of comparing leaders to the mafia has been seen in may of the
   cables concerning former Soviet states, giving the impression that the
   State Department perhaps does not understand how governments in the region
   operate.

    

   The other set of leaks that STRATFOR finds interesting is those where
   President Aliyev discusses Baku's balance of powers in the region. How
   Azerbaijan is not against normalizing relations with Armenia pending a
   resolution on Nagorn-Karabakh, but how Russia isn't playing the a negative
   role in the process. Also, how Baku isn't tied to Ankara. Such leaks are a
   sign that Azerbaijan isn't solely dependent on the U.S. or Turkey and does
   have a constructive relationship with Russia. Such leaks reinforce to the
   U.S. that it can not dictate Azerbaijan's future, since Baku does have
   options of other major players in the region to leverage into a better
   relationship with Washington.

    

    

   On 12/3/10 3:38 AM, Zaur Hasanov wrote:

     Hey Lauren
      
     Hope you are fine.
      
     We are also thinking on wikileaks in Azerbaijan. What's your take on it,
     I mean of Stratfor?
      
     Do you see in a purposeful leak by US officials or it is happened
     really?
      
     Also what do you think Azerbaijan  can expect from the leak? There are
     tons of stories not published yet. The leak already irritates officials
     here. If wikileak will continue to publish stories about high ranking
     officials it can damage the relations between US and Azerbaijan.  
      
     Have a good day, Zaur      
      
      

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-06 06:37:06</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 03:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1209471_fwd-re-zaur-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>confed@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1210303</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Mercenary
   Contract hit

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Hoor Jangda &lt;hoor.jangda@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:25:36 -0500 (CDT)
   To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
   height.

   On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

     Was the shooter a Libyan?

     On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:26:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1210303_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1211585</id>
    <title>Info - DHS &amp; FBI (internal use only) 
</title>
    <description>The White House told Nancy Pelosi not to allow the chairman of the
Homeland Security Committee to hold hearings into the domestic plots and
attacks, specifically the Ft. Hood shooting.

The culprit is believed to be Holder.

Holder sat on the request for the FBI to respond to Ft. Hood, which
substantiates why it took them 3 days to mobilize.

Motive - Politically, timing was bad for a Muslim terrorist attack on
U.S. soil, however, the WH did not anticipate the follow on attacks
(Detroit, Times Square) so now the WH's arse is in a crack.

Napolitano told a very good source that her hands have been tied.  She's
been told at a cabinet meeting not to push the domestic threat issue.
</description>
    <date>2010-05-14 21:29:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-21 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1211585_info-dhs-and-fbi-internal-use-only-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1216363</id>
    <title>[OS] CHINA/CSM- Foxconn founder: suicides will stop
</title>
    <description>   Foxconn founder: suicides will stop

   By Wang Xiang  |   2010-5-25  |     NEWSPAPER EDITION
   http://www.shanghaidaily.com/sp/article/2010/201005/20100525/article_438048.htm

   THE founder of Foxconn Terry Gou responded to the spate of eight suicides
   in its Shenzhen factory for the first time yesterday, saying he was
   confident of stopping the trend of tragedies.

   Gou admitted it was hard to manage over 800,000 workers in Foxconn around
   the world, but his factories were "definitely not a sweatshop," China News
   Service reported.

   Gou said the company has started working to change, but he would not
   discuss details.

   Foxconn's Shenzhen factory started to play music on its assembly line
   yesterday to soothe work stress, following eight suicides and two
   attempted suicides among its workers this year.

   The factory - described as a "hell factory" in media reports - said it
   will have a comprehensive plan to improve working conditions within a
   month, Oriental Morning Post reported yesterday.

   As a part of the plan, the factory started to recruit more than 2,000
   singers, dancers and gym trainers on Sunday to help its 400,000 workers
   relax.

   The factory also plans to hire more psychiatrists to help its workers deal
   with stress.

   In the meantime, new fences are being installed on every workers'
   dormitory building. The fences now rise up to 3 meters and are meant to
   prevent suicidal workers from jumping off, the report said.

   But some workers told the newspaper that adding fences were only
   superficial and suicidal workers would surely find other ways to end their
   lives. They said the wire fence even added to their stress, making workers
   feel they were living in prison every day.

   More than 400,000 workers live in the 3-square-kilometer factory area.
   According to media reports, the workers have to work through their days
   like a machine. Starting work at 4am every day, the workers repeat the
   same moves thousands of times.

   One worker told Guangdong based Southern Weekend that he would
   deliberately drop something on the ground so that he could have a few
   seconds of rest when picking it up.

   A Shenzhen Foxconn spokesman said after the ninth jumper killed himself
   that deeper social problems were to blame for the workers' deaths and the
   factory was not at fault.

   Read more:
   http://www.shanghaidaily.com/sp/article/2010/201005/20100525/article_438048.htm#ixzz0ospWF4eU

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-05-24 23:07:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1216363_-os-china-csm-foxconn-founder-suicides-will-stop-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>os@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:os@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1216587</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] sourcing insight
</title>
    <description>   I can't speak to your particular circumstances, but that is the general
   rule.

   On 7/29/11 2:49 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     I have always been secure even though I am always overseas.

     On 7/29/11 2:59 PM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

       Ok, good question.

       The secure list is not supposed to have anyone overseas on it.  (And
       as a side note, if you are traveling overseas you need to get yourself
       off this list while out of the country.)  We have many WOs overseas
       and so when we send something to secure it is just one more way we are
       trying to protect sourcing by not having it sent over international
       wires (yes, of course, there are many ways that foreigners can access
       any insight sent from anywhere at anytime, but it is somewhat more
       secure when we email only within CONUS).  So either a source or
       insight that is highly sensitive needs to go to the secure list only,
       and that means that we send it in ourselves because the overseas WOs
       won't be able to pick it up.

       Alpha goes to analysts/writers (and the few others selected on this
       list) and not ADPs or Interns, including to analysts/writers overseas.

       On 7/29/11 1:50 PM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

         your last line in the P.S.... said to send things directly to
         secure... I wanted to know if that meant only to secure or to alpha
         too.
         I think there is still some confusion over which list is which.
         On 7/29/11 1:47 PM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

           I don't understand your question.  This applies to both lists. 
           All sources need IDs (as mentioned in my PS - does that answer
           your question?).

           As to the question of sending from BBs, I definitely understand
           that issue.  When you return to your computer, please reply to the
           insight sent out with the full coding.  We need this info to
           really track insight and any changes over time.

           On 7/29/11 1:45 PM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

             secure or alpha?

             On 7/29/11 1:41 PM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

 We've gotten lazy on insight source IDs again.  Not only do you need to
 put the source code in the subject line, but all of these categories
 need to be filled out for every single insight sent to the list.

 SOURCE: code
 ATTRIBUTION: this is what we should say if we use this info in a
 publication, e.g. STRATFOR source/source in the medical industry/source
 on the ground, etc
 SOURCE DESCRIPTION: this is where we put the more concrete details of
 the source for our internal consumption so we can better understand the
 source's background and ability to make the assessments in the insight
 PUBLICATION: Yes or no.  If you put yes it doesn't mean that we will
 publish it, but only that we can publish it.
 SOURCE RELIABILITY: A-F, A being the best and F being the worst.  this
 grades the turnaround time of this source in responding to requests
 ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1-10, 1 being the best and 10 being the worst (we may
 change the range here in the future).  this changes a lot based on the
 info provided.  1 is "you can take this to the bank" and 10 would be an
 example of maybe - "this is a totally ridiculous rumor but something
 that is spreading on the ground"
 SPECIAL HANDLING: often this is "none" but it may be something like, "if
 you use this we need to be sure not to mention the part about XXX in the
 publication" or any other special notes
 SOURCE HANDLER: the person who can take follow-up questions and
 communicate with the source

 If you have any questions, concerns or suggestions, let me know.  I'll
 be back in the office next Tues so if you want to discuss this process
 in person we can do so soon.  In the meantime, remember that every piece
 of insight needs this ENTIRE ID unless it is just something that you
 picked up off the ground from a source that you will likely not hear
 from again.  Even then, you should fill out the entire ID and in the
 SOURCE field simply say - n/a with a description on why we are not
 coding them.

 Jen
 PS: Also remember that is something is highly sensitive to send directly
 - not thru a WO - to the "secure" list.  Secure list insights still need
 the above ID tags.


             --
             Lauren Goodrich
             Senior Eurasia Analyst
             STRATFOR
             T: 512.744.4311
             F: 512.744.4334
             lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
             www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com


         --
         Lauren Goodrich
         Senior Eurasia Analyst
         STRATFOR
         T: 512.744.4311
         F: 512.744.4334
         lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
         www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com


 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-29 21:59:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1216587_re-alpha-sourcing-insight-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1217649</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Libyans also pay foreign mercenaries.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:12:04 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   Was the shooter a Libyan?

   On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:13:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1217649_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1218086</id>
    <title>Re: RESEARCH REQUEST - Brazil &amp; Colombia sign a hot pursuit treaty
 of 50 km
</title>
    <description>   Hey Karen - Below and attached is what I was able to pull together on
   Brazil's military presence in the Amazon region. Let me know if there is
   more you need.

   Brazil Military - Amazon Region

    

   Brazilian Military

   Army = Amazonian Command (Manaus, Amazonas) - 8th Military Region

   Navy = HQ IX Manaus, Amazonas

    

    

   Army = 120,000 + 70,000 conscripts = 190,000 total

   Jungle Infantry =

     o 5 bridgades
     o 15 battalions

    

   State police for Amazon and border patrol under army control.

    

   Navy = 67,000

   Military Command of the 9th Naval District

   Command of the fleet of Amazonas

   ComFlotAM = 5 patrol boats

    

                             Amazonas  Command - AM

                http://www.exercito.gov.br/06OMs/indiceom/am.htm

   Command of the Military Command of the Amazon - Manaus Cmdo CMA
   www.cma.eb.mil.br 

   Command of Border - Rio Negro and 5th Infantry Battalion of the Jungle -
   Sao Gabriel da Cachoeira Cmdo R Fron Black / 5 A www.cfrn5bis.eb.mil.br  

   Command of Border - Solimoes and 8th Infantry Battalion of the Jungle -
   Tabatinga Cmdo Fron Solimoes / 8 A www.8bis.eb.mil.br 

   Command of the 2nd Infantry Brigade of the Jungle - Sao Gabriel da
   Cachoeira Cmdo 2nd Bda Inf Sl

   Command of the 2nd Grouping of Engineering - Manaus Cmdo 2 gpt E

   Command of the 12th Military Region - Manaus Cmdo 12th RM

   Command of the 16th Infantry Brigade of the Jungle - Tefe Cmdo 16th Bda
   Inf Sl

   Regional Commission for Works of the 12th Military Region - Manaus CRO/12

   Company Command Military Command of the Amazon - Manaus Cia Cmdo CMA

   Company Command of the 2nd Infantry Brigade of the Jungle - Sao Gabriel da
   Cachoeira Cia Cmdo 2nd Bda Inf Sl

   Company of the 2nd Command Grouping of Engineering - Manaus Cmdo Cia 2 gpt
   E

   Company Command of the 12th Military Region - Manaus Cmdo Cia 12th RM

   Company Command 16th Infantry Brigade of the Jungle - Tefe

   Cia Cmdo 16th Bda Inf Sl

   1st Company of Statement of Jungle - Manaus 1st Cia With Sl
   1st Precinct of the 29th Military Service CSM - Parintins 1st Del SM/29 of
   CSM
   1st Infantry Battalion of the Jungle - Manaus 1 A

   2nd Precinct of the 29th Military Service CSM - Itacoatiara 2nd Del SM/29
   of CSM

   3rd Special Forces Company - Manaus 3rd Cia Esp F
   3rd Precinct of the 29th Military Service CSM - Manaus 3rd Del SM/29 of
   CSM

   4th Precinct of the 29th Military Service CSM - Tefe 4th Del SM/29 of CSM

   4th Division of Survey - Manaus 4th DL www.4dl.eb.mil.br
   4th Battalion of the Army Aviation - Manaus 4 B Av Ex
   www.4esqdavex.eb.mil.br 
   4 Center for Telematics Area - Manaus 4 CTA www.cma.eb.mil.br  
   5th Precinct of the 29th Military Service CSM - Tabatinga 5th Del SM/29 of
   CSM

   6th Precinct of the Military Service of the 31st CSM - Humaita 6th Del
   SM/31 of CSM

   7th Precinct of the 29th Military Service CSM - Barcelos 7th Del SM/29 of
   CSM

   12th Company of Guards - Manaus 12th Cia Gd
   12th Police Company of the Army - Manaus 12th Cia PE
   12th Inspectorate of Army Finance And Accounting - Manaus 12th ICF Ex
   12th Battalion of Supply - Manaus 12 Sup B

   16th Logistics Base - 16th Tefe Log Ba
   16 Platoon of Communications of Jungle - Tefe
     16 Pel With SL

   17th Infantry Battalion of the Jungle - Tefe 17 BIS

   21 -a Companhia de Engenharia de Construc,ao - Sao Gabriel da Cachoeira 21
   -a Cia And CNST

   22 Police Platoon of the Army - San Gabriel da Cachoeira 22 Pel PE

   29th district of Military Service - Manaus 29th CSM www.29csm.eb.mil.br 

   34 Police Platoon of the Army - Tefe 34 Pel PE

   54 Infantry Battalion of the Jungle - Humaita 54 A www.54bis.eb.mil.br

    

    

   Amazon Command Logistics

    

   1 - The Challenge of the jungle
   The Amazon Jungle contains nearly a third of the planet's tropical
   forests. It is a true "ocean of trees." large and dangerous. She is so
   huge in fact, that the equivalent cross-cross the Atlantic Ocean between
   Africa and the Americas.

   The extensive and dense Amazonian forest is endowed with huge mesh basin,
   poor road network, high levels of humidity, rainfall and constant risk of
   tropical diseases, and it is the major obstacle to the logistics
   operations, either in operations or in support for organizations Military
   based in the area. There is the world no region so inhospitable and
   frightening as the Tropical Jungle.

   The 8th Military Region (8th RM) has a logistics area of responsibility of
   more than 1,500,000 km2, which represents approximately 18% of national
   territory. In real challenge to meet your Organicac,oes Military (OM)
   contingent, are employed means of the Brazilian Air Force (FAB), and
   organic car ferries and the 8th of Supply Depot (8 Sup D).

   The adversity of the environment directly influence the performance of man
   and material. The deterioration of the items of supply is a constant and
   real threat that demands the taking of special measures to preserve, such
   as conducting periodic purge of the food, the climate of depots and
   warehouses and preventive maintenance of stocked items.

   Besides these, other challenges have been defeated by the 8th RM in 1997
   to provide the necessary support to the OM under their responsibility,
   such as:

   - Creation of the lining of Maraba Hospital, opened in October 1997;

   - Production, distribution and installation of seven dental offices for
   OM;

   - Reequipping of doctors;

   - Collection and distribution of two modules of boats tactics for the 2nd
   Infantry Battalion of the Jungle (2 A - Bethlehem) and the 52 Infantry
   Battalion of the Jungle (52 A - Maraba-PA);

   - Installation of a ramp to facilitate loading and unloading, the vessel
   floating Codajas and Logistics;

   - Rationalization of the distribution of quotas of fuel to OM, offering
   economy and allowing the supply of petrol and diesel to April to March
   1998;

   - Reducing the rate of pre-availability of vehicles, by using funds from
   the Department of Transportation;

   - Fosfatizac,ao of 1880 OM regional arms of Arsenal in the War of Rio de
   Janeiro, with employment of aircraft for the transport of FAB;

   - Making operational ration alternative, using items of food in the trade,
   with great economy and good acceptance by the troop maneuvers in the
   Strait of brief and the State of Amapa;

   - Increased storage capacity of the cold chambers of OM further from
   Bethlehem and

   - The use of C-130 aircraft of the Support Plan Amazon, for carrying
   supplies, and the C-95 of the agreement with the FAB, to carry the team
   Regional Park Maintenance / 8 (Pq R Mnt / 8), General Hospital of Belem
   (HGeBe) and Regional Commission for Works / 8 (CRO / 8), and perform any
   evacuations in order to meet the entire area of responsibility of the 8th
   MR.

   2 - Insulation
   8th in the RM, the largest population density are at the margins of the
   main roads and rivers: Imperatriz (MA), Maraba, Altamira, Itaituba and
   Santarem, in Para

   Climatic conditions, the precariousness of the roads, particularly the
   Transamazon and the great distances inland to overcome, this isolation
   makes it the most difficult one for the completion of logistical support.

   3 - Large distances
   The road infrastructure priority, traditionally, means river, which are
   considered the most viable for logistical support to troops in Macapa,
   Santarem, and Itaituba Altamira, drawing up the routes of the network
   hidroviaria of the Amazon Basin.

   Addressing the troops in cantoned Oiapoque (AP) is a special challenge.
   The activity can be done by sea, rising up after the river of the same
   name or, as is currently done by the combination of the waterway to
   Macapa, the road of 620 kilometers through the BR-156, which connects one
   the capital city of Oiapoque, or by air.

   The roads south of Para, in theory, allow any support to the troops
   positioned along the highway Transamazon, ie Maraba, Altamira and
   Itaituba. However, its lack of traffic during periods of rain particularly
   difficult logistical support for these two cities, requiring the
   employment of means of inland 8 Sup D and / or aircraft of the FAB for the
   transport of supplies.

   The following table summarizes the distances to be overcome and the means
   employed by 8 Sup D to support the troops in charge of logistics 8th RM

   VENUE OF OM Road (Km) Anv C-130 (h) Ferry (days)
   Oiapoque - 1:40 5
   Macapa - 1:00 2
   Santarem - 1:30 5
   Itaituba - 2:00 6
   Altamira - 1:20 3
   Maraba 668 - --
   Empress 578 - --

   4 - The limitations of the means of communications and transport
   The communications environment in the jungle suffer effects of weather
   such as torrential rain, humidity, heat and limitations offered by the
   scarcity of roads, poor visibility at ground curled in some areas and the
   dense vegetation.

   However, the 8th MRI was able to test with success, some communications
   equipment during the "Operation Brief" and "Operation Amapa", held at the
   end of 1997.

   We used the following equipment: TW 7000; generating solar power, portable
   generator, automatic telephone exchange, telegraph handlers, all radio
   EB-11 ERC 131/TPX720 to link earth - air, maintaining contact with
   military aircraft to 50 km away , and the same at 1,000 feet altitude, TW
   2000 (run); KENWOOD with laptop or desktop, integrating radio-wire (IRF)
   and the use of brief radio station for the transmission of messages
   pre-established.

   The question of means of transport to be used in large-scale displacement
   is closely linked to the isolation of the units to be supported, the
   volume of material to be transported and the speed you wish. You can say
   that the mesh of the Eastern Amazon river meets the needs of access roads
   to large for the implementation of logistical support. However, although
   significant, the road is of poor quality, particularly in the BR-230 and
   156, during the rainy months.

   With this, the growing importance of maintenance of vehicles, the use of
   ferries and FAB for the logistical support to always reach the end of the
   line.

   5 - Support to civilian populations and indigenous
   The Army, through its military organizations (OM) distributed along the
   borders, major rivers and roads, providing essential support to
   communities and indigenous civilians.

   The 8th Military Region supports this activity, providing conditions for
   the functioning of hospitals to trim jobs and health care, both in
   personnel and in equipment and medicines.

   With the participation of the Region, the OM able to support various
   operations performing the type Civic Action Committee (ACIS) and joint
   campaigns with the Prefecture of the various towns in visits in the
   specialized field of medical health, dental and laboratory, with the
   objective to raise community spirit between the army and the local
   community.

   These activities are quite common, particularly in more isolated and
   Military Organizations, Santarem, Itaituba, north of Altamira and
   Cleveland.

    

    

                      Amazon Naval Command - 9th District

                           http://www.mar.mil.br/9dn/

    

   Organizations subordinate to the Military Command of the 9th Naval
   District

     o Command of the fleet of Amazonas
     o Capitania the Amazon River West
     o Battalion Operations Ribeirinha
     o Capitania River to Tabatinga
     o Naval Station Rio Negro
     o Deposit Naval Manaus
     o 3rd Squadron of Helicopters General Employment

    

   OM subordinated to ComFlotAM

     o P-30 Patrol Boat River Roraima
     o P-31 Patrol Boat River Rondonia
     o P-32 Patrol Boat River Amapa
     o P-20 Patrol Boat River Teixeira
     o P-21 Patrol Boat River Raposo Tavares
     o U-16 Hospital Doctor Ship Assistance Montenegro
     o U-18 Ship Assistance Hospital Oswaldo Cruz
     o U-19 Ship Assistance Hospital Carlos Chagas

    

   OM subordinated to CFAOC
   River station of Porto Velho
     Agency of River Tefe
     Agency of River Eirunepe
     Agency of Boca do Acre River
     Agency of River Guajara Mirim
     Agency of Itacoatiara River
     Agency of Parintins River

    

   Karen Hooper wrote:

     1) What are the most prominent (or any), non-Afghanistan/Pakistan hot
     pursuit agreements between countries around the world?
     2) Need a status update on Brazilian forces deployed to the Amazon
     regions: Where are they? How many are there?

     Priority 1

     Please let me know who takes this.

     It might be best to split the two questions up.

     Thanks!
     --
     Karen Hooper
     Latin America Analyst
     STRATFOR
     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Kristen Cooper
 Researcher
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com
 512.744.4093 - office
 512.619.9414 - cell
 kristen.cooper@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-03-12 16:44:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-02 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1218086_re-research-request-brazil-and-colombia-sign-a-hot-pursuit.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>hooper@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>nathan.hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kristen.cooper@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>researchers@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/105/105950_Brazil Military - Amazon Region Command.doc</path><size>49152</size><md5></md5><sha1>3dd5dabf5e51271a1e6b092beae0e721b00ebb80</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1218415</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - CHINA/AUSTRALIA - Gillard hacking - CN65
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE:  CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes NO ATTRIBUTION
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen
   This government has been very cavalier about security issues in China
   including bringing their laptops to China and even leaving them in their
   hotels despite their security briefings.  Source believes that these
   computers have been hacked before. 

   These computers are on the Parliamentary network, with public email
   addresses, namely for constituents including important companies (e.g.
   Rio, BHP, etc - quasi commercial/quasi national interest).  There are
   separate ministerial computers.  At least 10 officials have been hacked on
   the Parliamentary network.  It is unclear if the ministerial computers
   have been compromised, but it is likely.  Regardless the amount of
   commercial information they could have obtained is enormous.

   The government is building the national broadband network.  It is costing
   36 billion AUD.  Huawei is still being considered for the bid. 
   Australia's security guys are going nuts.  The potential for their entire
   security apparatus to be compromised is great. 

   The increase in hacking is a test.  They think the west is weak.  They
   don't think the US will respond and they know the Australians won't
   respond. 

   The Australian that has gone missing, Yang Hengjun the spy novelist living
   in Sydney (report in OS earlier today and yesterday) didn't just retire
   from the MFA as the OS reports are saying. 

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-03-30 04:50:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1218415_insight-china-australia-gillard-hacking-cn65-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1219122</id>
    <title>Re: CHINA/AUSTRALIA - Hanlong lifts bid for Sundance: report
</title>
    <description>   You called after my bed-time.  I try desperately to get 6 hours and turn
   the phone off at 11pm.  Not always so, but I try.

   On 10/6/11 2:43 AM, William "Bill" O'Chee wrote:

     Jen,
     I tried calling you, but to no avail.
     Will try tomorrow evening your time.
     Yours,
     William O'Chee
     ********* 
     Partner
     Himalaya Consulting
     Australia:        +61 7 31033306
     Aust mob:  +61 422 688886
     China mob:   +86 1365 1001069
     On 06/10/2011, at 12:46 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

       A little discussion from our side.

       -------- Original Message --------

       Subject: Re: [EastAsia] Fwd: Fwd: INSIGHT - CN65 Re: CHINA/AUSTRALIA - 
                Hanlong lifts bid for Sundance: report                        
          Date: Wed, 05 Oct 2011 09:43:06 -0500                               

       We do know that Sundance directors unanimously recommended Hanlong's
       57c cash per share offer yesterday, implying a market cap of $A1.65
       billion, or a 65.3 percent premium.

       The new offer was reportedly contingent on Sundance securing an
       agreement with govts of Cameroon and Congo to approve conventions for
       the Mbalam project. Govt approvals in these countries were not
       expected to come unless Sundance could show it had the necessary
       financing - the increased bid has done that - so I'd be surprised if
       these govts did not make regulatory approvals now.

       Sundance did the right thing by holding out for a higher bid because
       we know Hanlong wants to get its hands on the project to try and break
       the stranglehold of BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale. Hanlong chairman
       Liu Han told Sichuan Daily that the successful purchase of Sundance
       will have a huge impact on Chinese mining and Chinese iron markets.
       Liu also said that Hanlong has signed a deal with an unnamed Chinese
       construction company to build the rail and port infrastructure for the
       Mbalam project, which it said would produce iron ore at a "very
       competitive" $US21 a tonne.

       Don't forget that there were also insider trading allegations against
       Hanlong employees in Oz on Sept 14, although it's starting to look
       like this might not be a deal breaker. Getting a read on Oz's foreign
       investment review board (FIRB) thinking on this is going to be more
       difficult. I will say that FIRB just approved a plan (yesterday) by
       Rio Tinto and Japan's Mitsubishi to to basically mop up the remaining
       shares in coal miner Coal &amp; Allied that they don't already own. Rio
       currently owns 75.5 percent of Coal &amp; Allied, and Mitsubishi 10.2
       percent. They've offered $125 a share, valuing the miner at $10.8
       billion, minus the special dividend of up to $8 per share proposed by
       Coal &amp; Allied. I mention this because sometimes it feels like FIRB
       makes approval decisions in waves...

           -------- Original Message --------

           Subject: [EastAsia] CHINA/AUSTRALIA - Hanlong lifts bid for        
                    Sundance: report                                          
              Date: Mon, 03 Oct 2011 11:19:43 -0500                           

           Hanlong lifts bid for Sundance: report

           http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Hanlong-lifts-bid-for-Sundance-report-pd20111003-M9VUK?OpenDocument&amp;src=hp14

             Chinese group Hanlong Mining has lifted its takeover offer for
             Sundance Resources Ltd, in order to secure an agreement on the
             deal from the takeover target, according to a reports by Reuters
             Media.

             Sources told Reuters that Hanlong has raised its offer from the
             50 cents per share bid made in July. The new bid would be
             revealed by Tuesday, the sources said.

             Hanlong's initial bid valued Sundance at around $1.4 billion.

             Earlier this morning, Sundance was placed in a trading halt,
             ahead of an announcement on its possible acquisition by Hanlong.

             "The company requests an immediate trading halt of its
             securities until open of trading on Wednesday 5 October, 2011,
             or release of an announcement by the company," Sundance said.

             "The reason for the request is to provide an update regarding
             the proposal from Hanlong Mining Limited to enter into a Scheme
             of Arrangement to acquire 100 per cent of the issued capital of
             Sundance Resources Limited."

             An announcement would be made to the market prior to open of
             trading on Wednesday, the company said.

             Hanlong is also looking to take over Bannerman Resources Ltd,
             with a $144 million bid.

             However, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission
             (ASIC) is investigating trades by Hanlong employees in both
             Sundance Resources and Bannerman Resources and has obtained
             court orders to restrict their travel.

             In September, Hanlong Mining said it would stand down its
             executives who were being investigated by the corporate watchdog
             for suspected insider trading in the Chinese company's takeover
             targets.

             Sundance shares last traded at 43 cents a share.

             With AAP

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-06 12:35:25</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1219122_re-china-australia-hanlong-lifts-bid-for-sundance-report-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>william@himalayaconsulting.biz</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1219135</id>
    <title>Re: CHINA/AUSTRALIA - Hanlong lifts bid for Sundance: report
</title>
    <description>   Perfect.  I'll look forward to it.  Sleep well.

   On 10/6/11 7:12 AM, William "Bill" O'Chee wrote:

     Dear Jen,
     I shall remember that, but I do plead I was delayed by that business
     lunch. :)
     I shall call you this evening your time.  I have just come back from a
     district RSL meeting, and am too tired for words.  You have a great day,
     and we can talk tonight about these corruption issues and other China
     matters (including Hanlong Sichuan).
     Yours,
     William O'Chee
     ********* 
     Partner
     Himalaya Consulting
     Australia:        +61 7 31033306
     Aust mob:  +61 422 688886
     China mob:   +86 1365 1001069
     On 06/10/2011, at 8:35 PM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

       You called after my bed-time.  I try desperately to get 6 hours and
       turn the phone off at 11pm.  Not always so, but I try.

       On 10/6/11 2:43 AM, William "Bill" O'Chee wrote:

         Jen,
         I tried calling you, but to no avail.
         Will try tomorrow evening your time.
         Yours,
         William O'Chee
         ********* 
         Partner
         Himalaya Consulting
         Australia:        +61 7 31033306
         Aust mob:  +61 422 688886
         China mob:   +86 1365 1001069
         On 06/10/2011, at 12:46 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

           A little discussion from our side.

           -------- Original Message --------

           Subject: Re: [EastAsia] Fwd: Fwd: INSIGHT - CN65 Re:               
                    CHINA/AUSTRALIA - Hanlong lifts bid for Sundance: report  
              Date: Wed, 05 Oct 2011 09:43:06 -0500                           

           We do know that Sundance directors unanimously recommended
           Hanlong's 57c cash per share offer yesterday, implying a market
           cap of $A1.65 billion, or a 65.3 percent premium.

           The new offer was reportedly contingent on Sundance securing an
           agreement with govts of Cameroon and Congo to approve conventions
           for the Mbalam project. Govt approvals in these countries were not
           expected to come unless Sundance could show it had the necessary
           financing - the increased bid has done that - so I'd be surprised
           if these govts did not make regulatory approvals now.

           Sundance did the right thing by holding out for a higher bid
           because we know Hanlong wants to get its hands on the project to
           try and break the stranglehold of BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and
           Vale. Hanlong chairman Liu Han told Sichuan Daily that the
           successful purchase of Sundance will have a huge impact on Chinese
           mining and Chinese iron markets. Liu also said that Hanlong has
           signed a deal with an unnamed Chinese construction company to
           build the rail and port infrastructure for the Mbalam project,
           which it said would produce iron ore at a "very competitive" $US21
           a tonne.

           Don't forget that there were also insider trading allegations
           against Hanlong employees in Oz on Sept 14, although it's starting
           to look like this might not be a deal breaker. Getting a read on
           Oz's foreign investment review board (FIRB) thinking on this is
           going to be more difficult. I will say that FIRB just approved a
           plan (yesterday) by Rio Tinto and Japan's Mitsubishi to to
           basically mop up the remaining shares in coal miner Coal &amp; Allied
           that they don't already own. Rio currently owns 75.5 percent of
           Coal &amp; Allied, and Mitsubishi 10.2 percent. They've offered $125 a
           share, valuing the miner at $10.8 billion, minus the special
           dividend of up to $8 per share proposed by Coal &amp; Allied. I
           mention this because sometimes it feels like FIRB makes approval
           decisions in waves...

               -------- Original Message --------

               Subject: [EastAsia] CHINA/AUSTRALIA - Hanlong lifts bid for    
                        Sundance: report                                      
                  Date: Mon, 03 Oct 2011 11:19:43 -0500                       

               Hanlong lifts bid for Sundance: report

               http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Hanlong-lifts-bid-for-Sundance-report-pd20111003-M9VUK?OpenDocument&amp;src=hp14

                 Chinese group Hanlong Mining has lifted its takeover offer
                 for Sundance Resources Ltd, in order to secure an agreement
                 on the deal from the takeover target, according to a reports
                 by Reuters Media.

                 Sources told Reuters that Hanlong has raised its offer from
                 the 50 cents per share bid made in July. The new bid would
                 be revealed by Tuesday, the sources said.

                 Hanlong's initial bid valued Sundance at around $1.4
                 billion.

                 Earlier this morning, Sundance was placed in a trading halt,
                 ahead of an announcement on its possible acquisition by
                 Hanlong.

                 "The company requests an immediate trading halt of its
                 securities until open of trading on Wednesday 5 October,
                 2011, or release of an announcement by the company,"
                 Sundance said.

                 "The reason for the request is to provide an update
                 regarding the proposal from Hanlong Mining Limited to enter
                 into a Scheme of Arrangement to acquire 100 per cent of the
                 issued capital of Sundance Resources Limited."

                 An announcement would be made to the market prior to open of
                 trading on Wednesday, the company said.

                 Hanlong is also looking to take over Bannerman Resources
                 Ltd, with a $144 million bid.

                 However, the Australian Securities and Investments
                 Commission (ASIC) is investigating trades by Hanlong
                 employees in both Sundance Resources and Bannerman Resources
                 and has obtained court orders to restrict their travel.

                 In September, Hanlong Mining said it would stand down its
                 executives who were being investigated by the corporate
                 watchdog for suspected insider trading in the Chinese
                 company's takeover targets.

                 Sundance shares last traded at 43 cents a share.

                 With AAP

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-06 14:15:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1219135_re-china-australia-hanlong-lifts-bid-for-sundance-report-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>william@himalayaconsulting.biz</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1219750</id>
    <title>Re: Dispatch: Anonymous' Online Tactics Against Mexican Cartels
</title>
    <description>I think our Security Weekly will be on the same topic.  I'll send it
along too once its published if you're interested.

On 11/1/11 10:12 PM, Troy May wrote:
&gt; Cool
&gt;
&gt; On 02/11/2011, at 9:32 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:
&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; -------- Original Message --------
&gt;&gt; Subject:	Dispatch: Anonymous' Online Tactics Against Mexican Cartels
&gt;&gt; Date:	Tue, 1 Nov 2011 15:54:06 -0500
&gt;&gt; From:	Stratfor &lt;noreply@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt; Reply-To:	STRATFOR ALL List &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;, STRATFOR AUSTIN List&lt;stratforaustin@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt; To:	allstratfor &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; 	
&gt;&gt; Dispatch: Anonymous' Online Tactics Against Mexican Cartels
&gt;&gt; November 1, 2011 | 2040 GMT
&gt;&gt; Click on image below to watch video:
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Tactical Analyst Ben West discusses online activists Anonymous’ continued efforts against Mexican drug cartels and the cartels’ responses.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Editor’s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete accuracy.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; RELATED LINKS
&gt;&gt; 	• Mexico’s Cartels Draw Online Activists’ Ire
&gt;&gt; 	•  Dispatch: Implications of a Mexican Drug Lord’s Capture
&gt;&gt; 	• Mexican Drug War Update: The Polarization Continues
&gt;&gt; A member of the online activist group, Anonymous, released a video statement October 31 stating that it will continue to search for and publicize sensitive data about Mexican criminal organizations despite the physical threat of doing so.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Based upon past examples, the latest Anonymous campaign against Los Zetas could spill over into the real world, resulting in violence and deaths as Los Zetas target a new group.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Online media has been in conflict with Mexican criminal and drug organizations for some time now. Journalists are known to be targets of the cartels and plenty have been killed in the past.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Bloggers are also included in the online media campaign against the cartels, but they have typically not been targeted as much — likely because the information they post has not had as much of an impact on cartel operations as the journalists have.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; However, that could be changing with the addition of Anonymous to the anti-cartel online media campaign in Mexico.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Throughout August and September of this year four people with connections to anti-cartel blog websites have been attacked.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; · Two individuals killed and hung from a bridge in Nuevo Laredo with signs warning not to post on blogs.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; · A girl found beheaded in Nuevo Laredo who had contributed to anti-cartel blogs in the past.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; · Additionally, an Anonymous member claimed that a volunteer was abducted by Los Zetas while distributing pamphlets in Veracruz.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Anonymous has conducted successful Distributed Denial of Service Attacks on institutions such as Visa and MasterCard and has stolen sensitive information from HB Gary Federal in 2011 and subsequently publicized internal emails from that group. It brings together a group of individuals with a higher skill-set and sense of operational security than the less savvy anti-cartel bloggers already active in Mexico.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; This higher skill-set means that Anonymous could contribute to the effectiveness of the online struggle against the cartels or at least bring more publicity to the issue. It’s important to remember that the U.S. has been engaging in its own electronic observation of the Mexican cartels for years. Anonymous likely won’t be able to turn up more information than the U.S. government already has, but they are able to publicize more information than the U.S. government can.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; If Anonymous is able to increase the effectiveness of online operations seeking to expose cartel activities then that makes them and other anti-cartel bloggers in Mexico much higher profile targets than before.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Anonymous is not an organization. It’s important to remember, it is a loose association of individuals. It’s not the group itself then, but the individuals involved, who become targets of the cartels.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; We have seen reports that Los Zetas are deploying their own teams of computer experts to track those individuals involved in the online anti-cartel campaign, which indicates that the criminal group is taking the campaign very seriously. Those individuals involved face the risk of abduction, injury and death — judging by how Los Zetas has dealt with threats in the past.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Click for more videos
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Give us your thoughts 
&gt;&gt; on this report
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; For Publication
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Not For Publication
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Read comments on 
&gt;&gt; other reports
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Reader Comments
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; This report may be forwarded or republished on your website with attribution to www.stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us 
&gt;&gt; © Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; -- 
&gt;&gt; Jennifer Richmond
&gt;&gt; STRATFOR
&gt;&gt; w: 512-744-4324
&gt;&gt; c: 512-422-9335
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; richmond@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt; www.stratfor.com

-- 
Jennifer Richmond
STRATFOR
w: 512-744-4324
c: 512-422-9335
richmond@stratfor.com
www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-02 04:20:47</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1219750_re-dispatch-anonymous-online-tactics-against-mexican-cartels.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>troy.may@wimex.cn</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1219814</id>
    <title>more on anonymous
</title>
    <description>Here ya go... xo...



Anonymous vs. Zetas Amid Mexico's Cartel Violence
November 2, 2011 | 1701 GMT


By Scott Stewart

The online activist collective Anonymous posted a message on the
Internet on Oct. 31 saying it would continue its campaign against
Mexican criminal cartels and their government supporters despite the risks.

The message urged inexperienced activists, who might not be practicing
proper online security measures, to abstain from participating. It also
urged individuals associated with Anonymous in Mexico not to conduct
physical pamphlet drops, participate in protests, wear or purchase Guy
Fawkes masks, or use Guy Fawkes imagery in their Internet or
physical-world activities. Guy Fawkes was a British Roman Catholic
conspirator involved in a plot to bomb the British Parliament on Nov. 5,
1605. The British celebrate the plot’s failure as Guy Fawkes Day each
Nov. 5. In modern times, the day has come to have special meaning for
anarchists. Since 2006, the style of the Guy Fawkes mask used in the
movie “V for Vendetta” has become something of an anarchist icon in the
United Kingdom and elsewhere.
Related Video

It was no coincidence, then, that in an Oct. 6 video Anonymous activists
set Nov. 5 as the deadline for Los Zetas to release an Anonymous
associate allegedly kidnapped in Veracruz. The associate reportedly was
abducted during an Anonymous leaflet campaign called “Operation Paperstorm.”

The Oct. 31 message acknowledged that the operation against Los Zetas,
dubbed “Operation Cartel,” would be dangerous. It noted that some
members of the collective would form a group of trusted associates to
participate in a special task force to execute the operation. It asked
supporters to pass information pertaining to drug trafficking to the
Operation Cartel task force for publication on the Internet via a
software tool developed by Anonymous that permits the anonymous passing
of information.

When discussing Anonymous, it is important to remember that Anonymous is
not a hierarchical organization, but rather a collective of activists.
Individuals who choose to associate themselves with the collective
frequently disagree over issues addressed by the collective and are free
to choose which actions to support and/or participate in.

With Nov. 5 approaching, and at least some elements of Anonymous not
backing down on their threats to Los Zetas, we thought it would be
useful to provide some context to the present conflict between Anonymous
and Los Zetas and to address some of its potential implications.

Context

The Mexican port city of Veracruz has been the epicenter of this event.
Veracruz has been a busy place over the past few months in terms of
Mexico’s cartel wars. The port serves as a critical transportation hub
for Los Zetas narcotics smuggling. Because of this, STRATFOR has
identified Veracruz as a bellwether for determining Los Zetas’
trajectory in the coming months.

In a major recent development in Veracruz, the Sinaloa cartel began an
offensive into the Zetas stronghold using the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva
Generacion (CJNG), which, under the name “Matazetas” (Spanish for “Zeta
killers”), conducted high-profile body dumps of more than 50 alleged
low-level Zetas operatives on Sept. 20 and Sept. 22. On Oct. 25, Mexican
marines arrested Carlos Arturo Pitalua-Carillo, also known as “El Bam
Bam,” who was the Zetas’ plaza boss in Veracruz. The Zetas in Veracruz
thus are feeling pressure from both the Mexican government and the CJNG.

The Anonymous Internet collective entered this dynamic in August with
its activities in Veracruz. It is common knowledge that members of
local, state and federal governments in Mexico support various cartel
groups. In the state of Veracruz, it is generally believed that some
members of the state government support Los Zetas, the dominant cartel
there. In response to this corruption, some who have associated
themselves with Anonymous launched Operation Paperstorm. These activists
distributed leaflets throughout Veracruz denouncing the state government
for supporting Los Zetas. They conducted leaflet distributions Aug. 13,
Aug. 20 and Aug. 29. They also released videos on the Internet on Aug.
26 and Aug. 29 condemning the Veracruz state government.

Activities outside Veracruz also played a part in setting the stage. On
Sept. 13, the bodies of two people who had been tortured and killed were
hung from a pedestrian overpass in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state. Signs
left with the bodies said Los Zetas had killed the pair because they had
posted information pertaining to the Zetas on blogs that specialize in
reporting on the Mexican cartels. On Sept. 26, the decapitated body of
Marisol Macias Castaneda was found in a park in Nuevo Laredo. Macias,
who worked for a local newspaper, allegedly posted on cartel blogs using
the nickname “Laredo Girl.” A message found with her body said the Zetas
killed her due to her online activities.

Following the death of Laredo Girl, Anonymous claimed responsibility for
a distributed denial of service attack against the official website of
the state of Veracruz. Although her murder occurred outside of the
state, Anonymous said its attack on the Veracruz website was in response
to Laredo Girl’s death. This indicates that activists understand that
Los Zetas are active in both areas and suggests that Veracruz
state-based activists are driving the Anonymous campaign against Los Zetas.

Significantly, some individuals associated with Anonymous already were
unhappy with the state of Veracruz over its decision to prosecute two
individuals who had posted kidnapping reports on Twitter on Aug. 25 that
proved false. According to the reports, a group of children had been
abducted from a Veracruz school. The inaccurate reports allegedly caused
some two dozen traffic accidents as terrified parents rushed to the
school to check on their children. The so-called Twitter terrorists
initially were charged with offenses that could have carried a 30-year
sentence. Some associated with Anonymous, which has absolute freedom of
speech on the Internet as one of its foundational principles, took
umbrage at the prospect of such stiff penalties — especially given the
stark contrast with the impunity enjoyed by many cartel figures in Mexico.

STRATFOR began to focus on the story following the Oct. 6 release of the
video in which Anonymous activists threatened to release information
about individuals cooperating with Los Zetas if the Zetas did not
release the Anonymous activist kidnapped during Operation Paperstorm. In
light of the approaching Nov. 5 deadline, we published an analysis of
the topic on Oct. 28; the topic subsequently received a great deal of
media coverage.

This publicity has generated a very interesting response from Anonymous
that emphasizes that it is a collective, not an organization. Some
Anonymous activists began to back off the issue, erasing online user
accounts formerly associated with the campaign, suggesting the operation
against Los Zetas had been a hoax and claiming that no activist had been
kidnapped. Other activists suggested that the campaign was dangerous,
ill-advised and should be suspended. Still other activists became more
strident and determined in their posts, urging that the campaign
continue. As noted, Anonymous’ collective nature means activists can
select the actions they participate in, including Operation Cartel. It
would only take one dedicated individual to continue the operation.

The will to continue was manifested Oct. 29 with the hacking of the
personal website of Gustavo Rosario Torres, the former attorney general
of the Mexican state of Tabasco. The site was defaced with a message
from Anonymous Mexico stating that Rosario is a Zeta. Rosario has long
been accused in the Mexican and international media of protecting Los
Zetas, and videos long have circulated on YouTube making the same
charge. The hacking of his website thus did not provide any startling
revelation; Anonymous will have to uncover and publish original and
timely information if it hopes to do much damage to Los Zetas.

The determination by some activists to continue the operation against
Los Zetas also was reflected in the tone of the Oct. 31 message. Some
activists associated with Anonymous clearly feel compelled to continue
with the campaign over what they have characterized as an outpouring of
public support in the wake of the media coverage. According to their
Oct. 31 video statement:

“We received many expressions of support and solidarity as well as the
voices of people crying for help. We must remember that we are on the
side of the people, and we cannot let down the people, especially in
critical moments like the one they currently live in.”

We therefore anticipate that some Anonymous activists will continue the
campaign. We also believe that Los Zetas will respond.

Blowback

Mexico’s various cartels long have used the Internet to trumpet their
triumphs on the battlefield and to taunt and even degrade their enemies.
The cartels have posted videos of the torture, execution and desecration
of the corpses of rivals. They also frequently monitor narcoblogs and
sometimes even post on them. As demonstrated by the September blogger
killings in Nuevo Laredo, Los Zetas appear to possess at least some
rudimentary capability to trace online activity to people in the
physical world. They are known to employ their own team of dedicated
cyber experts and to have sources within the Mexican government.

In addition to technical intelligence, the Zetas can use old-fashioned
human intelligence to track down their online enemies. People sometimes
discuss their online identities with family and friends, and such
information can be overheard and passed to Los Zetas in return for
money. This danger was recognized in the Oct. 31 video from Anonymous
that urges participants in their campaign not to discuss their
activities with anyone.

In past Anonymous actions, like the December 2010 attack against PayPal
after the WikiLeaks scandal broke, the U.S. and British governments
arrested numerous individuals associated with Anonymous who allegedly
participated in the attacks. In June 2011, Turkey arrested dozens of
activists associated with Anonymous actions conducted against the
Turkish government in response to its plan to establish a national
Internet-filtering system. This indicates that some activists associated
with Anonymous are not nearly as anonymous as they would like to be.
Every action on the Internet leaves some sort of trail, making it very
difficult to be truly anonymous.

Like other Mexican cartels, Los Zetas do not take affronts lightly. Even
if Anonymous cannot provide information that damages Los Zetas smuggling
operations, the very fact that the collective has decided publicly to
challenge Los Zetas will result in some sort of response. The big
question is whether the Zetas possess the capability to trace the
organizers of the Anonymous action?

One challenge with tracking an entity such as Anonymous is that it is
intentionally amorphous. It is also as transnational as the Internet,
and it would be unsurprising if many of those chosen to participate in
the operation against Los Zetas are located in the United Sates, Europe
and other areas that are outside the Zetas’ immediate reach.

The amorphous nature of Anonymous can also cut the other way, however.
If Los Zetas abduct and execute random patrons at an Internet cafe,
behead them and place Guy Fawkes masks on their heads, it will be very
difficult to prove that they were not associated with Anonymous. Los
Zetas also could execute random people and claim they had provided
Anonymous with information in order to intimidate people from actually
cooperating with Anonymous. As Anonymous noted in its Oct. 31 video,
this is dangerous business indeed.

The Big Picture

How the Mexican public reacts to the Anonymous operation must be
watched. The criminal cartels and their violence have deeply affected
many people in Mexico’s middle and upper classes. STRATFOR talks to many
people in Mexico who fear that they or a family member will be
kidnapped. In many communities, especially places like Ciudad Juarez,
Torreon, Monterrey and Veracruz, businessmen find themselves in a
terrible bind. They face ever-increasing extortion demands from the
cartels while their business revenues dwindle because the violence
associated with those same cartels has frightened people into not going
out. This is forcing many small businesses to close. It also is creating
a great deal of frustration and resentment.

At the same time, Mexico has become one of the most dangerous countries
in the world for journalists, and many media organizations practice
heavy self-censorship to protect themselves. In the wake of the
September blogger killings, some of the narcoblogs, like Blog del Narco,
have exhibited strong signs of self-censorship inspired by fear. As a
result, many Mexicans believe the mainstream media are not of any real
assistance in the face of cartel violence.

Mexican citizens also are frustrated with their government, which, as
noted, is well-known for corruption. This sentiment is feeding
Anonymous’ original campaign in Veracruz. This frustration even has led
some people to begin discussing the creation of vigilante groups to
fight the cartels — though this has been attempted before in Mexico. As
we saw in the case of La Familia Michoacana, which began as such a
vigilante group, vigilantism frequently does not end well.

This is where Anonymous may fit in. With Mexican citizens unable to rely
on their government, the media or even armed vigilante groups for
assistance, they may embrace Anonymous, coming to view its form of
cybervigilantism as an outlet for their frustration. If Anonymous is
perceived as a safe way to pass information pertaining to cartel
activities, we may see people from all over the country begin to share
intelligence. Such human intelligence could very well prove to be far
more damaging to the cartels than any information Anonymous activists
can dredge up electronically. As this operation is becoming more widely
publicized, the pool of people outside Mexico who might wish to
participate will likely grow. The number of people inside Mexico who
wish to provide information might grow as well.

Anonymous has taken on many powerful entities in the past, such as major
transnational corporations and governments. But the repercussions from
participating in such operations were never as grave for online
activists as they are in this case. Being identified and detained by
Scotland Yard or the FBI is a far different situation than being
identified and detained by Los Zetas.


-- 
Jennifer Richmond
richmond@stratfor.com
w: (512) 744-4324
c: (512) 422-9335
www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-03 14:42:04</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1219814_more-on-anonymous-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>troy.may@wimex.cn</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1220381</id>
    <title>signed/pending spreadsheet
</title>
    <description>14</description>
    <date>2011-12-09 19:16:16</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1220381_signed-pending-spreadsheet-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/106/106104_signed partnerships.xlsx</path><size>13214</size><md5></md5><sha1>64ffa70c83f997c05b7a3be73674885a63ab5b88</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1220919</id>
    <title>Fwd: Confederation Projects for Turkey
</title>
    <description>   FYI, for your update
   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Reva Bhalla &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: March 16, 2010 10:42:51 PM CDT
     To: Meredith Friedman &lt;mfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Confederation Projects for Turkey
     CONFEDERATION PROJECTS FOR TURKEY
     Cihan News Agency -- owns Zaman, Today's Zaman and other major Turkish
     media agencies
     Cihan provides news to: CNN International, BBC, NBC, MTV, CBS, ABC,
     Al-Jazeera, Abu Dhabi Tv, ARD, ZDF, SAT 1, TF1, Canal +, RAI, Tve,
     Antena 3, TV2 Denmark, Nos Tv, MJTV, NTV Japan, KBS, NTV Russia, TV6,
     IRIB, MEGA Channel, Bloomberg, MSMBC, ANS, Lider Tv and others. They
     have staff in Central Asia, Mideast, Balkans, Europe, South America,
     Africa, Far East. Permanent offices in places like Gaza, Kabul, Arbil.
     Political ideology:  Gulenist/loyal to ruling AKP
     My contact:  Abdulhamit Bilici (a.bilici@zaman.com.tr) - General
     Director of Cihan News Agency and columnist for Zaman
     Today's Zaman -- English-language version of Zaman; direct competitor to
     Hurriyet
     Has partnership with British daily The Times
     Political ideology: Gulenist/loyal to ruling AKP
     My contact: Bulent Kenes (b.kenes@todayszaman.com) - Editor in Chief of
     Today's Zaman  (both he and Bilici are extremely influential within the
     Gulen movement.)
     Additional contact:  Ali Aslan aslan@alihalit.com - columnist for
     Today's Zaman, based in Washington, DC
     Note -- I had a preliminary discussion with Mr. Bilici and Mr. Kenes
     about a partnership when I met with them at Zaman HQ in Istanbul. I also
     know their primary contact in DC. They would need a bit more explanation
     and coaxing. Their immediate response was that they publish all the
     information that they get on their Web site. What we would have to
     better explain is that we're looking for a direct partnership. If we
     have a deal with Hurriyet, then we should also have a deal with
     Cihan/Zaman to balance out politically.
     Dogan News Agency -  owns Hurriyet, Turkish Daily News and others
     Direct competitor to Cihan News Agency
     Political ideology:  A lot more neutral, but more in line with the
     nationalist/secularist camp
     Contacts:  Haluk Tukel - CEO of Dogan media group and Secretary-General
     of TUSIAD - main business association dominated by
     nationalist/secularists;  David Judson, editor in chief of Hurriyet -
     david.judson@tdn.com.tr;  Taylan Bilgic - managing editor of Hurriyet -
     taylan.bilgic@tdn.com.tr
      
     Note -- had dinner with David Judson, who explained why he was hesitant
     before to sign a deal with STRATFOR since Dogan media has been under
     attack by the Gulenists and AKP and are facing major tax evasion fines.
     They didnt want to also get branded as working with a 'shadow CIA'. Now
     he feels they have enough partnerships under his belt to move forward
     with STRATFOR.  My meeting with Haluk Tukel got cancelled last minute,
     but we're in touch via email and I think I'll be able to meet him when
     he's in DC in a couple weeks.
     EnergyReport  - An energy-focused magazine written in Turkish and
     English. Launched January 2010, monthly circulation. 
     Contacts:  Gulcin Fatma Kabasakalli (fkabasakalli@yahoo.com, +90 530 363
     14 84);   Faruk Demir - mfd2030@gmail.com ( 0.530.592 46 09)
     This is a very polished energy publication run by the topmost energy
     expert in Turkey, Faruk Demir and his assistant, Fatma Kabasakalli, who
     is the editor in chief. Faruk Demir was formerly on the Turkish national
     security council. Now he conducts a lot of energy negotiations on behalf
     of Turkey, but keeps a bit of distance from the government to give him
     some flexibility. He and his assistant are extremely well-connected. The
     magazine also has a lot of good analysis and insider information. They
     are already planning on publishing one of George's weeklies in their
     next publication. I'll bring a copy of the magazine when I come to
     Austin next week. If we set up a formal partnership with them, we can
     have regular access to the best resources on Turkey's energy relations
     with Russia, Azerbaijan, Europe, Central Asia, US, etc. This would be
     extremely useful for our source efforts.  I met with Faruk and Fatma for
     lunch while in Istanbul and discussed a partnership with Fatma. I will
     be seeing Faruk in DC in a couple weeks.
</description>
    <date>2010-03-17 04:44:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-03 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1220919_fwd-confederation-projects-for-turkey-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1222809</id>
    <title>RE: INSIGHT - RUSSIA - monster metals merger?
</title>
    <description>   Before Fred has to ask....  How do I make money off of this???
    

   Aaric S. Eisenstein

   STRATFOR

   SVP Publishing

   700 Lavaca St., Suite 900

   Austin, TX  78701

   512-744-4308

   512-744-4334 fax

    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Tuesday, May 12, 2009 11:35 PM
   To: 'Secure List'; EurAsia AOR
   Subject: INSIGHT - RUSSIA - monster metals merger?
   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: One of the top within the Kremlin circle  
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
    
    
   One set of the talks underway are for Deripaska, Potanin, Rybolovlev,
   Usmanov, Zyuzin and Abramovich to pool their assets and the allow the
   government to step in some sort of way. Of course many will be lost,
   crushed or placed as heads of the new creation. This is just one plan
   Putin threw at the olis though it isn't definite yet. I'm sure you can
   guess who would be head of the new company.
    
   LG: this would merge Rusal, Norilsk, Evraz, Mechel, Urakali and
   Metaloinvest.....
   MOSTER METALS COMPANY COMING TO EAT A CITY NEAR YOUUUU.
    
    
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-05-13 06:36:32</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1222809_re-insight-russia-monster-metals-merger-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1223659</id>
    <title>merging turkey codes
</title>
    <description>The following are sources you both use.  I am going to merge their
codes.  Please use the following codes for these people from here on out.

Bilici TR304
Kenes TR303
Sengonul TR312
Unuvar TR314
Demir TR325
Kabasakali TR324

-- 
Jennifer Richmond
China Director
Director of International Projects
richmond@stratfor.com
(512) 744-4324
www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-08-29 16:47:12</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-03 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1223659_merging-turkey-codes-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anya.alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>meredith.friedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1224410</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [OS] CHINA/CSM - Chinese media "told to tone down
 reports on Foxconn suicides" - HK press
</title>
    <description>   Michael Wilson wrote:

    Chinese media "told to tone down reports on Foxconn suicides" - HK press 
                                                                             
    Text of report by Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post website   
    on 28 May                                                                
                                                                             
    [Report by Fiona Tam: "Mainland Media Told To Tone Down Reports";        
    headline as provided by source]                                          
                                                                             
    Major mainland newspapers and websites said they had received orders     
    from propaganda officials at the provincial and central government       
    levels to play down the suicide cases in Foxconn's Shenzhen plants.      
                                                                             
    The latest ban, issued last night [27 May], required all mainland media  
    to recall their reporters, saying that the groups waiting outside the    
    plant and local hospitals to seek interviews were disrupting operations. 
                                                                             
    Editors at a newspaper in Guangzhou yesterday said they had been told to 
    use Xinhua's reports, not to give the story too much coverage and not to 
    sensationalise it.                                                       
                                                                             
    A reporter from another Guangdong newspaper who was waiting outside      
    Foxconn's industrial complex yesterday said he had seen at least four    
    ban orders during the past week and was not sure whether the story he    
    filed yesterday would be cut in length or dropped altogether.            
                                                                             
    He was later told by editors not to describe the 13th suicide attempt as 
    a "suicide", although it was confirmed as such by Shenzhen police.       
                                                                             
    Many mainland reporters who were not allowed to write what they saw and  
    thought complained on their microblogs, saying that was the only channel 
    for them to air the grievances of Foxconn workers.                       
                                                                             
    Website editors said they were told to use only government-provided      
    information or official statements from Foxconn.                         
                                                                             
    City government mouthpiece sznews.com, the only news website in the      
    city, deleted all reports of individual suicide cases of Foxconn workers 
    yesterday.                                                               
                                                                             
    On major mainland news portals such as Sina.com and Sohu.com, Shenzhen   
    government statements and Xinhua stories about the latest situation in   
    Foxconn replaced independent reports.                                    
                                                                             
    On Sina.com, all news reports about Foxconn were by Xinhua, and Sohu.com 
    used two stories from government mouthpieces, the Yangcheng Evening News 
    and the Mirror .                                                         
                                                                             
    The Southern Metropolis News ran three full pages of independent reports 
    on the press conference of Terry Gou, chairman of Foxconn's              
    Taiwanese-based parent, Hon Hai Precision Industry.                      
                                                                             
    But the newspaper was told by authorities later yesterday to place more  
    focus on government measures to cope with the scandal and to scale down  
    coverage.                                                                
                                                                             
    Mainland newspapers said they had received orders to drop independent    
    reports on Foxconn from early this year, before the spate of suicides    
    worsened in the past month.                                              
                                                                             
    The Southern Weekly had apparently dropped a report on Foxconn's working 
    conditions earlier.                                                      
                                                                             
    Source: South China Morning Post website, Hong Kong, in English 28 May   
    10                                                                       
                                                                             
    BBC Mon MD1 Media FMU AS1 AsPol amdc                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2010

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Watchofficer
 STRATFOR
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Watchofficer
 STRATFOR
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
</description>
    <date>2010-05-28 16:56:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1224410_re-eastasia-os-china-csm-chinese-media-told-to-tone-down.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>michael.wilson@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1224886</id>
    <title></title>
    <description>   I'm sitting here with a cisco guy.  What is the trapwire tech?  He's not
   involved with this project but let me know if there are any ques and I'll
   see what he can find out.

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Jul 4, 2011, at 8:55 PM, Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

     Maybe with talk of Trapwire technology and such we can provide some
     insight on this.  The addition of the cameras is not new, I think i had
     it in the bullets sometime earlier this year. 

     -------- Original Message --------

      Subject: [OS] CHINA/CSM/CT- Cisco Poised to Help China Keep an Eye on   
               Its Citizens                                                   
         Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2011 22:52:54 -0500                                
         From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;                         
     Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                  
           To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                  

         * JULY 5, 2011

     Censorship Inc.
     Cisco Poised to Help China Keep an Eye on Its Citizens
     Read more:
     http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304778304576377141077267316.html#ixzz1RCQsajlK
     By LORETTA CHAO in Beijing and DON CLARK in San Francisco
     [CISCO] Getty Images

     Cameras in Beijing's Tiananmen Square. U.S. firms can sell surveillance
     gear in China, but not equipment that is used only for crime control.

     Western companies including Cisco Systems Inc. are poised to help build
     an ambitious new surveillance project in Chinaa**a citywide network of
     as many as 500,000 cameras that officials say will prevent crime but
     that human-rights advocates warn could target political dissent.
     [CISCO_p1]

     The system, being built in the city of Chongqing over the next two to
     three years, is among the largest and most sophisticated
     video-surveillance projects of its kind in China, and perhaps the world.
     Dubbed "Peaceful Chongqing," it is planned to cover a half-million
     intersections, neighborhoods and parks over nearly 400 square miles, an
     area more than 25% larger than New York City.

     The project sheds light on how Western tech companies sell their wares
     in China, the Middle East and other places where there is potential for
     the gear to be used for political purposes and not just safety. The
     products range from Internet-censoring software to sophisticated
     networking gear. China in particular has drawn criticism for treating
     political dissent as a crime and has a track record of using technology
     to suppress it.

     An examination of the Peaceful Chongqing project by The Wall Street
     Journal shows Cisco is expected to supply networking equipment that is
     essential to operating large and complicated surveillance systems,
     according to people familiar with the deal.

     The U.S. has prohibited export of crime-control products to China (for
     instance, fingerprinting equipment) ever since Beijing's deadly 1989
     Tiananmen Square crackdown. But the U.S. restrictions don't prohibit
     sale of technologies such as cameras that can be used in many waysa**to
     tame, say, either traffic jams or democracy marches. This loophole
     troubles some critics. There is no indication that Cisco is selling
     products customized for crime control.
     More

         * Cisco Faces Lawsuits, Criticism Over Past China Activities

     Western companies' pursuit of sales in China underscores a fundamental
     question for businesses and policy makers alike: Should companies be
     held accountable if foreign governments use their products for political
     suppression?

     Cisco was brought in to the Chongqing project by Chinese security
     company Hikvision Digital Technology Co., the project's main contractor,
     Hikvision officials and others say. It is unclear whether Cisco's
     participation has been finalized, although one person familiar with the
     matter says it is close.

     Officials at Cisco, based in San Jose, Calif., declined to discuss its
     possible involvement in detail. A company spokesman stressed that Cisco
     "hasn't sold video cameras or video-surveillance solutions in any of our
     public infrastructure projects in China."

     The company has previously saida**including in a June blog post by
     Cisco's general counsel, Mark Chandlera**that the company strictly
     abides by the Tiananmen export controls and doesn't supply any gear to
     China that is "customized in any way" to facilitate repressive uses.

     View Full Image
     CISCO_jmp
     CISCO_jmp
     CISCO_jmp

     Cisco is the world's biggest maker of networking equipment, which
     includes routing and switching systems that send data between computers
     and connect systems to the Internet. The company has stirred controversy
     in the past for its China dealings.

     The Chongqing project is also attracting interest from other U.S.
     companies, including Alabama software maker Intergraph Corp.
     Hewlett-Packard Co. also expects to bid on part of the project,
     according to a senior H-P executive.

     The people familiar with the matter said H-P may be looking to supply
     servers or storage equipment for Peaceful Chongqing.

     Asked about concerns about political use of the system, Todd Bradley, an
     executive vice president who oversees H-P's China strategy, said in an
     interview last week in China, "We take them at their word as to the
     usage." He added, "It's not my job to really understand what they're
     going to use it for. Our job is to respond to the bid that they've
     made."
     Censorship Inc.

         * Mideast Uses Western Tools to Battle the Skype Rebellion 6/1/2011
         * Iran Vows to Unplug Internet 5/28/2011
         * U.S. Products Help Block Mideast Web 3/28/2011

     Another possible participant in the Chongqing project is Intergraph, a
     Huntsville, Ala., company that made a bid through Cisco to provide
     customized software for the effort, said Bob Scott, head of Intergraph's
     security group. It is unclear if the company, a unit of Sweden's Hexagon
     AB, will ultimately be hired.

     Although sale of surveillance technology to repressive nations is
     permissible, some critics have harsh words for companies that do so.
     "The business community is only hearing what it wants to hear and
     disregarding the rest," said Rep. Frank Wolf, a Virginia Republican who
     co-chairs the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, a nonpartisan rights
     group made up of members of Congress.

     Chongqing, a sprawling metropolis in southwestern China, is one of the
     most populous cities in the nation with an urban population of at least
     12 million. The hillside Yangtze River port, famous for spicy hot-pot
     and often covered in fog, was China's capital from 1938 to 1945. Today,
     it is being developed as a gateway to the country's western hinterland.

     Chongqing has gained prominence the past two years because of its
     Communist Party chief, Bo Xilai, a rising political star who has led a
     controversial crackdown on organized crime that some lawyers have
     criticized for what they say are violations of legal due process.

     View Full Image
     CISCO
     Getty Images

     Chongqing's party chief, Bo Xilai, led a controversial crime crackdown.
     CISCO
     CISCO

     Mr. Bo declined to comment. He is expected to become one of China's top
     leaders next year by being appointed to China's Politburo Standing
     Committee, the nation's top decision-making body.

     Chongqing's government has said it plans to invest more than $800
     million of its own in building the Peaceful Chongqing system. Another
     $1.6 billion is coming from other, unspecified sources, the city has
     said. Hikvision's president, Hu Yangzhong, said in an interview that
     government funds would go toward building the central surveillance
     network and installing a portion of the cameras, while more cameras
     would be installed by owners of residences, office buildings and
     othersa**all of which would be linked to the network.

     Video-surveillance systems can serve many purposes and are routinely
     used for benign purposes by cities world-wide to fight crime and ease
     traffic. Still, civil libertarians raise concerns including in the U.S.
     that the technology can invade privacy and is poorly regulated.

     Human-rights advocates say Chinese police have used surveillance footage
     to identify people in political protests. Jailed Chinese artist-activist
     Ai Weiwei, who was released last month, complained before he was
     apprehended on April 3 that police were using cameras to monitor him.

     Corinna-Barbara Francis, a researcher at Amnesty International, said
     surveillance footage has been used to identify and apprehend peaceful
     protesters in China, including in Xinjiang and Tibet. "In China there's
     ample evidence that they use" video surveillance "to crack down and then
     criminalize activity which should not be criminalized," Ms. Francis
     said.

     The Chongqing government declined to comment, as did China's Ministry of
     Public Security and the State Council Information Office. Chinese
     leaders have long argued that maintaining social stability and economic
     growth takes precedence over political rights.

     Hikvision's president, Mr. Hu, said he believes the project's goal is to
     cut crime, not target political dissidents. "China has a very serious
     public-security problem," he said in an interview last week. He blamed
     an epidemic of robbery and other crimes on the flood of poor migrants
     into China's cities and a growing wealth gap.

     Mr. Hu said Chongqing's new surveillance system will be tied in to an
     information network that Cisco is already building in the city, where
     Cisco has announced a high-profile alliance under a program it calls
     Smart+Connected Communitiesa**an initiative under which Cisco consults
     with governments around the world to use technology to tackle civic
     problems such as transportation, healthcare and education.

     According to the Chongqing government's website, Cisco Chief Executive
     John Chambers told the city's mayor in a meeting last year that he hoped
     the Smart+Connected project could create a "model in Chongqing which can
     be popularized in China."

     Executives at Western companies say they must weigh the possibility that
     technology could be misused against the business risks of missing out on
     a lucrative market. "We do have concerns," said Intergraph's Mr. Scott.
     "On the other hand, we want to do business there," he said, noting that
     the company's software is also used for environmental and other projects
     in China.

     "We're just the technology platform," he said, adding that it is the
     responsibility of the buyers "to meet and adhere to laws and policies"
     of their jurisdictions. Ultimately, Intergraph has "to manage the risk
     against the gain."

     In an April interview with the Journal, Bill Stuntz, general manager of
     Cisco's physical-security business, said Cisco gives careful
     consideration to how its products are used in China and doesn't want
     them to be used for repressive purposes. He declined to discuss specific
     projects in China but noted that sales of security equipment there have
     been expanding rapidly. He said Cisco is providing products that include
     networking equipment and servers along with support for some large
     video-surveillance systems, though not video cameras.

     China has become the fastest growing market for surveillance equipment,
     although it isn't yet the biggest, according to IMS Research, a U.K.
     firm that studies the market. The surveillance markets in the U.S. and
     Europe are growing at single-digit rates while surveillance-related
     revenue in China is growing at 23% a year. Surveillance-equipment sales
     alone, not including networking gear or software, totaled $1.7 billion
     last year.

     Chongqing's government says on its website that its current surveillance
     system is outdated, allowing police to directly tap into just 15,000 of
     the total 300,000 cameras. It wants the new system to be among the
     world's most advanced.

     Mr. Scott of Intergraph says Chongqing wants not only to increase camera
     count, but also to have video managed and delivered to dozens of police
     precincts and other organizations. The project presents challenges "that
     have not really been done anywhere else in the world," he said.

     Mr. Scott said his company spent three years developing software that
     enables multiple agencies to control cameras and also analyzes video
     feeds for unusual situations like fires or the formation of crowds.

     The number of surveillance cameras in Chinese cities including Chongqing
     appears to dwarf that of other cities around the world, though
     comparisons are tough because cities generally don't disclose their
     camera counts.

     A 2008 report by the state-run Xinhua news agency said Beijing had some
     280,000 cameras in its system. By comparison, privacy advocates in the
     U.S., including the American Civil Liberties Union, estimate Chicago has
     10,000 cameras. The New York Civil Liberties Union estimated in 2009
     that there were 8,000 cameras in New York.
     a**Kersten Zhang, Yoli Zhang, Jason Dean and Cari Tuna contributed to
     this article.

     Write to Loretta Chao at loretta.chao@wsj.com and Don Clark at
     don.clark@wsj.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 06:03:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1224886_.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>richmond@core.stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1225569</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] China - Coal
</title>
    <description>See insight sent from CN65 last night.  Good stuff.  Let me know what 
else you need.

On 8/24/11 4:28 AM, Zhixing Zhang wrote:
&gt; heard from news that stockpile have significantly dropped in the 
&gt; recent two weeks due to summer peak, and that it would affect winter 
&gt; power usage.
&gt;
&gt; knowing that we have clients interested in the issue, let us know if 
&gt; we need to follow this or do any updates.

-- 
Jennifer Richmond
China Director
Director of International Projects
STRATFOR
w: 512-744-4324
c: 512-422-9335
richmond@stratfor.com
www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-08-24 12:31:31</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1225569_re-eastasia-china-coal-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>melissa.taylor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1226848</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - CN 65 Re: [OS] CHINA/MINING/GV - Imported iron ore supplies
 decline in China
</title>
    <description>   **In response to the story below that imported iron ore supplies have
   declined.  Note that this report and the Commodore report the EA team was
   reviewing yesterday contradict, as the source notes.

   SOURCE: via CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: A - concrete data from shipbrokers say otherwise
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

   And almost immediately, the propaganda begins.  The article below, based
   on the new IO index says:

     "Xinhua analysts said sharp declines of billet price and weakening
     demand for iron ore have led to declines in imported iron ore prices.
     "Steel companies have also cut their bid prices for iron ore due to weak
     demand for steel in the coming winter and the relatively large amount of
     remaining stock, according to Xinhua analysts."

   Compare this with the report you sent me today from Commodore Research,
   which stated:

     "As we have continued to stress in recent reports, spot availability of
     capesize vessels in the Atlantic basin has remained very tight. This
     tightness, combined with an increase in congestion at Australian and
     Brazilian ports (discussed in greater detail on page 9), and an increase
     in Chinese iron ore demand has caused capesize rates to rebound."

   And this today from my shipbroker:

     "Just to prove The Bears wrong, Owners counter attack picked up momentum
     yesterday, West Aussie ore miners, who were very quiet from Last Friday,
     entered the market with 'several cargoes' including 'spot spot'. This
     complimented the increased demand in The Atlantic the day before and
     with further pushing for loading Atlantic for TA and for
     fronthaul yesterday, we had a very sharp rise in spot rates across
     the board again, with The Bulls buying paper and pushing
     physicals hard.... 
     "Exporters focus is on getting ships to sell as many tonnes as they can
     produce and get out of their ports on ships that fit their schedules
     (and mitigate congestion costs). The focus is not on whether they have
     to pay 'a few dollars more freight' to ship them. They can only of
     course do this if The Buyers focus remains to guarantee they can receive
     as much (ore and coal) as they need, which keeps FOB prices at record
     highs and freight rates at a relatively small percentage of delivered
     costs."

   Note very carefully the language in the Xinhua report.  It refers to
   Xinhua analysts opinions, but these are at clear variance from the data
   from shippers and shipbrokers.  If Chinese demand for IO is down, why are
   capesize charter rates up, and the number of stems fixed increasing, not
   decreasing?

     -------- Original Message --------

     Subject: [OS] CHINA/MINING/GV - Imported iron ore supplies decline in    
              China                                                           
        Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2011 19:45:00 +1000                                 

      
     Imported iron ore supplies decline in China
     English.news.cn   2011-09-27 17:26:54     FeedbackPrintRSS

     http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/business/2011-09/27/c_131163147.htm

     BEIJING, Sept. 27 (Xinhua) -- Inventories of iron ore at 25 of China's
     major sea ports dropped to 94.17 million metric tons in the week ending
     on Sept. 26, according to the Xinhua-China Iron Ore Price Index, which
     was released on Tuesday.

     Last week's supplies of imported iron ore were 320,000 metric tons lower
     than that of the previous week, down 0.34 percent week-on-week,
     according to the index.

     The price index for 63.5-percent-purity and 58-percent-purity iron ore
     imports both dropped by one point to 186 points and 155 points,
     respectively.

     Xinhua analysts said sharp declines of billet price and weakening demand
     for iron ore have led to declines in imported iron ore prices.

     Steel companies have also cut their bid prices for iron ore due to weak
     demand for steel in the coming winter and the relatively large amount of
     remaining stock, according to Xinhua analysts.

     However, price corrections for imported iron ore will be limited as a
     result of rising shipping costs, the analysts said.
</description>
    <date>2011-09-27 13:23:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1226848_insight-cn-65-re-os-china-mining-gv-imported-iron-ore.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>watchofficer@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1227700</id>
    <title>RE: Al-Qaeda supporters working at strategic sites  ** note Paki cops..
</title>
    <description>   Himmler said the same thing. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Kamran Bokhari [mailto:bokhari@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Monday, April 30, 2007 2:36 PM
   To: 'Fred Burton'; analysts@stratfor.com
   Subject: RE: Al-Qaeda supporters working at strategic sites ** note Paki
   cops..
   This thing needs to be handled delicately and you need the right people
   involved.
    
    

   -------

   Kamran Bokhari

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   Senior Analyst, Middle East &amp; South Asia

   T: 202-251-6636

   F: 905-785-7985

   bokhari@stratfor.com

   www.stratfor.com

    

   -----Original Message-----
   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Monday, April 30, 2007 3:34 PM
   To: 'Kamran Bokhari'; analysts@stratfor.com
   Subject: RE: Al-Qaeda supporters working at strategic sites ** note Paki
   cops..

   Lovely.  Time for internment camps. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Kamran Bokhari [mailto:bokhari@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Monday, April 30, 2007 2:33 PM
   To: 'Fred Burton'; analysts@stratfor.com
   Subject: RE: Al-Qaeda supporters working at strategic sites ** note Paki
   cops..
   Huge issue, which I had raised when Bakri a few months back had said that
   the Muslims working in British security services would eventually wage the
   future jihad.
    
    

   -------

   Kamran Bokhari

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   Senior Analyst, Middle East &amp; South Asia

   T: 202-251-6636

   F: 905-785-7985

   bokhari@stratfor.com

   www.stratfor.com

    

   -----Original Message-----
   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Monday, April 30, 2007 3:30 PM
   To: analysts@stratfor.com
   Subject: Al-Qaeda supporters working at strategic sites ** note Paki
   cops..

   By Ben Leapman, Home Affairs Correspondent, Sunday Telegraph (London)
   29/04/2007
    
   http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/04/29/nterr29.xml
    
   Suspects linked to al-Qaeda have obtained sensitive jobs in vital
   industries that could be the target of terrorist attacks, it can be
   revealed.  The individuals were uncovered by police and the security
   services in operations designed to protect key British sites such as
   transport hubs, power stations and the water supply.  Security chiefs
   believe that they may have become radicalised while already in employment,
   thus evading the strict vetting procedure for applicants for
   security-sensitive posts.  Following the discovery, the Government is to
   draft new guidelines for companies to strengthen systems for monitoring
   staff. Employees will be encouraged to report any concerns they may have
   about suspicious behaviour by colleagues.  Other elements of the critical
   national infrastructure that the Government has drawn up include plans to
   defend telecommunications, food supply, finance, key health facilities and
   the emergency services... MI5 is understood to have unmasked al-Qaeda
   sympathisers who joined its ranks during a recruitment drive aimed at
   young British Muslims, following the London bombings. At least three
   Metropolitan Police officers have also been investigated over visits they
   made to Pakistan, according to the Association of Muslim Police...
    
    
</description>
    <date>2007-04-30 21:37:38</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-20 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1227700_re-al-qaeda-supporters-working-at-strategic-sites-note-paki.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1227863</id>
    <title>RE: Humint - Israel and Syria
</title>
    <description>Keep in mind that the final Winograd report is to be released in July, and
that's going to be much, much worse. Kadima knows Olmert is bad news, but
they have to also counter a Bibi alternative

Bibi is leading the polls -- In a separate question on who they would vote
for, the poll found that 26% of Israelis believe that Likud chairman
Binyamin Netanyahu should be prime minister, followed by Foreign Minister
Tzipi Livni (9%), former prime minister Ehud Barak (6%), Labor MK Ami Ayalon
(5%), Vice Premier Shimon Peres (4%), Israel Beiteinu leader Avigdor
Lieberman (3%), billionaire Arkadi Gaydamak (2%) and Peretz (1%). Olmert
received zero percent in the poll, Channel 2 said. 

Also, Netanyahu has set up a special team of Russian-speaking advisers to
prepare to compete for Russian votes in the next election. 

The team, which meets every few weeks, includes Benny Briskin, who served as
an adviser to Netanyahu while he was prime minister. It also includes Dr.
Zeev Hanin, a sociologist from Bar-Ilan University, Dr. Alex Feldman, an
expert on opinion polls, and Likud spokesman Dmitry Shimelfarb. 
 

-----Original Message-----
From: George Friedman [mailto:friedman@mycingular.blackberry.net] 
Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2007 3:10 PM
To: Fred Burton; 'Reva Bhalla'; Analysts
Subject: Re: Humint - Israel and Syria

Its like american politics. Hillary can say its her. Doesn't mean shit until
she has it. Its like consulting the fbi on who the next president will be.
They know what's in the papers. 

This stuff is all over the israeli papers. No secret that bibi seems to have
it except that he's as loved as hillary. But olmert is finished. 
-- 
Sent via Cingular Xpress Mail with Blackberry     

-----Original Message-----
From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
Date: Tue, 1 May 2007 15:07:45 
To:"'Reva Bhalla'" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;,       "'Analysts'"
&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
Subject: RE: Humint - Israel and Syria


BiBi (protect) has said that Olmert is "finished" Thursday.  

In looking at my notes, there may be an interim short term replacement,
however, it looks like BiBi is the one that wants the job very badly.  He
said, "it's mine, I've shored up Likud. Thank you Fred for your support of
Israel..."   

I don't know Izzy politics as to others who may be the short term fix.     

-----Original Message-----
From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2007 3:01 PM
To: 'Analysts'
Subject: RE: Humint - Israel and Syria

So to clarify,  Bibi is implying that Olmert has privately indicated that
he's resigning on Thursday?

-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2007 3:00 PM
To: 'Reva Bhalla'; friedman@mycingular.blackberry.net; 'Peter Zeihan';
'Analysts'
Subject: RE: Humint - Israel and Syria


Thursday from BiBi (protect)  

-----Original Message-----
From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2007 2:57 PM
To: friedman@mycingular.blackberry.net; 'Fred Burton'; 'Peter Zeihan';
'Analysts'
Subject: RE: Humint - Israel and Syria

The reason you're hearing he's going out thursdya is b/c that's the day the
massive opposition political protests are planned. They're trying to get
everyone committed to the idea that Olmert needs to be kicked out now. I
don't think Olmert's gonna last long, but he's not going to duck out that
quickly

-----Original Message-----
From: George Friedman [mailto:friedman@mycingular.blackberry.net]
Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2007 2:55 PM
To: Fred Burton; Peter Zeihan; Analysts
Subject: Re: Humint - Israel and Syria

And if not thursday then wednesday and if not wednesday then sunday. 
-- 
Sent via Cingular Xpress Mail with Blackberry     

-----Original Message-----
From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
Date: Tue, 1 May 2007 14:53:29 
To:&lt;friedman@mycingular.blackberry.net&gt;,       "'Peter Zeihan'"
&lt;zeihan@stratfor.com&gt;,       "'Analysts'" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
Subject: RE: Humint - Israel and Syria

New info -- 

Olmert is out on Thursday.

From my lips to your ears.  

 

-----Original Message-----
From: George Friedman [mailto:friedman@mycingular.blackberry.net]
Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2007 1:17 PM
To: Peter Zeihan; Fred Burton; Analysts
Subject: Re: Humint - Israel and Syria

That's open but there is no one except bibi to take over. Perez is finished.
Peres is too old. And barak is even less liked than bibi. 



-- 
Sent via Cingular Xpress Mail with Blackberry     

-----Original Message-----
From: "Peter Zeihan" &lt;zeihan@stratfor.com&gt;
Date: Tue, 1 May 2007 13:11:14
To:&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;, "'Analysts'" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
Subject: RE: Humint - Israel and Syria

Unseat in an election? Or unseat as PM?


-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2007 1:08 PM
To: Analysts
Subject: Humint - Israel and Syria


From an Israeli source who spoke to Netenyahu today:

BiBi believes he can unseat Olmert and there is a movement underway to do
so.  

Source also advises the IDF cannot protect the Golan and the IDF believes
the Syrians are making plans to take it. 




  
</description>
    <date>2007-05-01 22:26:44</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-27 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1227863_re-humint-israel-and-syria-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@mycingular.blackberry.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1227888</id>
    <title>RE: HUMINT - MOSSAD Covert Assistance to Saudi Intelligence
</title>
    <description>   Fred attended budget meeting yesterday.  Will submit shrinks invoice to
   Don for services rendered.   He's pricey, but I get a volume discount
   because he is studying me for a long term paper on "Dashboards, Mental
   Health and Meetings."   Ink blots of Hoppman, Jonardi, Sunshine, Howlet,
   Hargas and other assorted snake oil were shown.   Under doctors orders,
   will not attend any more.  These ruses in the future will not work.   Any
   gathering of more then me, I consider a meeting. 
    
   Either we want these towel heads as a client of not.  I can also have
   anybody we send to Riyadh beheaded.  Is Moore still on the dole? 
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Todd Hanna [mailto:hanna@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, May 02, 2007 9:32 AM
   To: 'Fred Burton'; 'Aaric Eisenstein'; 'Debora Henson';
   kuykendall@stratfor.com
   Subject: RE: HUMINT - MOSSAD Covert Assistance to Saudi Intelligence
   I'm guessing a trip to Riyadh is not in the budget. 
    

   Todd Hanna

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   T: 512-744-4080

   F: 512-744-4334

   hanna@stratfor.com

   www.stratfor.com

    

    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, May 02, 2007 9:32 AM
   To: 'Todd Hanna'; 'Aaric Eisenstein'; 'Debora Henson';
   kuykendall@stratfor.com
   Subject: RE: HUMINT - MOSSAD Covert Assistance to Saudi Intelligence
   Might require a trip to Riyadh, but he would start with the Saudi
   Embassy.  
    
   Didn't know what Janka had covered or what he has up his sleeve with these
   camel jockies. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Todd Hanna [mailto:hanna@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, May 02, 2007 9:29 AM
   To: 'Fred Burton'; 'Aaric Eisenstein'; 'Debora Henson';
   kuykendall@stratfor.com
   Subject: RE: HUMINT - MOSSAD Covert Assistance to Saudi Intelligence
   If it's that easy for Mike, I say tell him to have at it.  Debora should
   be involved as well, for pricing considerations. 
    

   Todd Hanna

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   T: 512-744-4080

   F: 512-744-4334

   hanna@stratfor.com

   www.stratfor.com

    

    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, May 02, 2007 7:52 AM
   To: 'Todd Hanna'; 'Aaric Eisenstein'; 'Debora Henson';
   kuykendall@stratfor.com
   Subject: FW: HUMINT - MOSSAD Covert Assistance to Saudi Intelligence
   Have we got the Saudi Foreign Ministry or intel service as sub clients? 
   If not, suggest we send Mike Parks, who is good friends with Prince
   Bandar, to sign them up.  $100,000 deal is nothing to these folks.  I
   think Les Janka also has contacts with these sleezy arsehole ragheads
   (Fred's personal assessment.) 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, May 02, 2007 7:46 AM
   To: 'Analysts'
   Subject: HUMINT - MOSSAD Covert Assistance to Saudi Intelligence
   MOSSAD is using Nicosia, Cyprus as a primary transit hub into Riyadh, to
   assist the Saudi intelligence services with intelligence collection and
   advice on Iran.  Sources advised the Saudis are playing both sides of the
   fence -- with the jihadists and the Israelis -- for fear that the U.S.
   does not have a handle on either.  
    
   Several enterprising MOSSAD officers, both past and present, are making a
   bundle selling the Saudis everything from security equipment, intelligence
   and consultation. 
    
    
</description>
    <date>2007-05-02 16:46:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1227888_re-humint-mossad-covert-assistance-to-saudi-intelligence-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>henson@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>hanna@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>aaric.eisenstein@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1229232</id>
    <title>[alpha] Fw: Oslo
</title>
    <description>   Trapwire

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:18:40 -0500 (CDT)
   To: burton@stratfor.com&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Oslo
   99 percent sure. Some reports already confirming.
    
   From: burton@stratfor.com [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, July 22, 2011 12:15 PM
   To: Michael Maness
   Subject: Re: Oslo
    
   Think it was a bomb?

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:00:28 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Oslo

   My money's on a Libyan connection.

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 18:31:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1229232_-alpha-fw-oslo-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1229550</id>
    <title>Fwd: [Analytical &amp; Intelligence Comments] RE: Cuba
</title>
    <description>   Marla please be sure to publish

   Sent from my iPhone
   Begin forwarded message:

     From: davidharvey13th@yahoo.com
     Date: April 14, 2009 3:25:30 AM CDT
     To: responses@stratfor.com
     Subject: [Analytical &amp; Intelligence Comments] RE: Cuba
     Reply-To: Responses List &lt;responses@stratfor.com&gt;

     David Harvey sent a message using the contact form at
     https://www.stratfor.com/contact.
     Dear Richard,  I always wondered what the fuss was about in Cuba, now I
     know.  Much like Ireland was to England and France.  However, I am not
     worried about the wars of other countries as they are all controlled by
     the
     foreign rich trillionaire bankers of the Rothchild's Illuminati, to kill
     6.2 of 6.7 billion of the world's population to leave the rich 500
     million
     slaves, in the name of Sustainable Development.  Now that really
     concerns
     me that our government, which was elected to defend us against
     foreigners
     attacking us and charging custom and duty taxes to foreigners, is going
     to
     use laws created by the Illuminati to give up our sovereignty as a
     nation
     and as states in order to kill us by fraudulent claims of a bird flu
     virus
     that was benign to humans as an excuse to murder 80% of the US
     population.
     On another topic, what is your analysis on the Rothchild's Illuminati,
     Bilderberg Group, Trilateral Commission, and Council of Foreign
     Relations,
     in their efforts to form a One World Government or New World Order, by
     controlling the US and all its citizens through the bought and paid for
     politicians by means of the lobbyists of corporations, the DHS, the IRS,
     the DIS, the Dept of Treasury, the Federal Reserve Board - a private
     foreign bank of Rothchild's Illuminati?  They have taken the dollar off
     the
     gold standard in order to inflate and deflate the dollar and thereby
     creating overt an covert taxation, which will have the knock on effect
     of
     causing recessions and depressions, causing bankruptcies, foreclosures,
     gas
     crisis, housing crisis, credit crisis, which all involve a national
     security risk of immense proportions.  They must break a few eggs to
     make
     an omelet, or in others words, they must ruin all national governments,
     including the US, in order for the Illuminati to take over the world's
     countries and make them into the One World Government, One World
     Religion,
     and One World Monetary System do that they can control all the world's
     people.
     Either way, the FEMA will use some natural or man-made excuse to declare
     martial law, deport all of American's citizens to go to detention camps,
     and be forced to take this weaponized vaccine to kill us off, one way or
     another.  
     Already I have obtained 1000 military manuals of the US from
     www.spectergroup.com at $18 in order to know my enemy, see how they
     think,
     and avoid, escape or evade them by some means, such as heading for the
     hills as the Jews and Cherokees did, or by going to another country
     before
     all hell breaks loose.  I plan to use such military manuals to live off
     the
     land, (survival) apart from the dollar dominated government that wishes
     to
     subjugate us by denying us freedom, food, health care and other
     benefits,
     necessary in today's modern world.
     If the epidemic or natural disaster does not take down the US citizens,
     the war between the foodless, homeless, jobless (have-nots) against the
     stores and businesses (haves) will surely call FEMA to declare Martial
     Law.
     Either way we are screwed one and all.
     I am sure you have read the Baxter Pharmaceuticals have attempted to
     cause
     the weaponized Avian Flu Virus to be released in six European Countries
     in
     order to cause an epidemic that would give rise for FEMA to cut off all
     transportation and declare Martial Law as a consequence.
     Then we have the Executive Branch assuming powers that they do not have
     under the US Constitution and the Legislative branch kowtowing to the
     President's threat of Martial Law, the the Judicial Branch making law
     from
     the bench.
     I would be most interested in your take in all this.  Also, which
     country
     should a real patriot go to in order to avoid the coming financial,
     man-made avian flu virus epidemic, now that H5N1 has been modified with
     the
     human virus H1N3 to become weaponized, which with the Model State
     Medical
     Emergency Powers Act of 2008 by Bush, would force all Americans, by FEMA
     declaring Martial Law to be deported to detention centers for
     involuntary
     vaccination or face unlimited quarantine and forfeiture of all property
     and
     at the point of guns from our own anti-Posse Comitatus military.
     Why for God's sake is no one screaming at the top of their lungs and the
     impending Tsunami that is before us and try to amorealate the
     consequences
     of it before it happens?  Am I the only conspiracy theory wacko that
     foresees all this?  What say you to this?
     I am truly sorry I cannot afford to subscribe to your excellent info, as
     a
     totally and permanently disabled vet, who is 21K below the poverty
     level. But I do pay attention to all you have said and I do tell others
     of it. Afterall, if there is anyone who could pull our fat out of the
     fire, it
     would be the Watchman on the Tower as in Ezekiel 3:17-21, (YOU), to
     allow
     those trained or who wish to be trained and led out of this impending
     morass of doom against an Axis and Empire of World Evil, the
     Rothchild's,
     UN New World Order.  We cannot stop them, but maybe we could slow them
     down
     a little to give others a chance to run to the hills, as the FEMA led
     goons
     will imprison all the citizens in 48 hours from declaraion of martial
     law.
     David Harvey
     Vietnam Vet, Paralegal, ex-LE, &amp; Christian Patriot
     Columbus, Ohio, USA, formerly Odessa Ukraine where I wrote to you
     before.
     Source: http://us.mg1.mail.yahoo.com/dc/launch?.gx=1&amp;.rand=eanqhla5ji6t9
</description>
    <date>2009-04-14 15:21:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-11 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1229550_fwd-analytical-and-intelligence-comments-re-cuba-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>social@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eisenstein@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1229775</id>
    <title>One more news from Sabah on Stratfor
</title>
    <description>   A well-known columnist of our confed partner Sabah, Emre Akoz, mentioned
   Stratfor and George in his article today. Akoz says he wishes those who
   are paranoiac about Turkish foreign policy and AKP could listen to the
   founder of American intelligence and strategic thinking center Stratfor,
   political scientist George Friedman, so that Friedman could tell them how
   Turkey will become one of the major global powers in the future.
   There is no direct reference in his article to the G's weekly on Turkey. I
   thanked him for his kinds words and sent him G's weekly on Turkey.
   Cheers,
   Emre

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-26 11:55:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-09 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1229775_one-more-news-from-sabah-on-stratfor-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>confed@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1230162</id>
    <title>RE: Humint - Bush Family 
</title>
    <description>   did anyone in that limo say no?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Bokhari, Kamran Asghar [mailto:bokhari@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, April 12, 2007 12:09 PM
   To: 'Fred Burton'; howerton@stratfor.com; 'Reva Bhalla';
   analysts@stratfor.com
   Subject: RE: Humint - Bush Family
   Such knee-jerk reaction explains why we are in the current mess.
    

   -------

   Kamran Bokhari

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   Senior Analyst, Middle East &amp; South Asia

   T: 202-251-6636

   F: 905-785-7985

   bokhari@stratfor.com

   www.stratfor.com

    

   -----Original Message-----
   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, April 12, 2007 1:07 PM
   To: 'Bokhari, Kamran Asghar'; howerton@stratfor.com; 'Reva Bhalla';
   analysts@stratfor.com
   Subject: RE: Humint - Bush Family

   Not a lot of great thinking goes into these decisions I'm
   afraid.  Hindsight is always 20/20.   Reagan made the decision to bomb
   Libya after the LaBelle disco bombing in the back seat of the limo in a
   nano-second.  Was it the right call?  Sure.  Did he ponder all options and
   debate the geo-political importance with his Cabinet?   No, he asked us in
   the limo what we thought. 
    
   Sometimes it is what it is. 
    
   Rent the Wizard of Oz.  When Dorothy pulls the curtain back, what does she
   see?  

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Bokhari, Kamran Asghar [mailto:bokhari@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, April 12, 2007 12:01 PM
   To: 'Fred Burton'; howerton@stratfor.com; 'Reva Bhalla';
   analysts@stratfor.com
   Subject: RE: Humint - Bush Family
   The admin does otherwise it would not have neglected Afghanistan and left
   the country wide open to the Taliban to do with it as the please.
    
    

   -------

   Kamran Bokhari

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   Senior Analyst, Middle East &amp; South Asia

   T: 202-251-6636

   F: 905-785-7985

   bokhari@stratfor.com

   www.stratfor.com

    

   -----Original Message-----
   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, April 12, 2007 12:57 PM
   To: 'Bokhari, Kamran Asghar'; howerton@stratfor.com; 'Reva Bhalla';
   analysts@stratfor.com
   Subject: RE: Humint - Bush Family

   Clearly, nobody other then Stratfor gives a damn about Iraq. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Bokhari, Kamran Asghar [mailto:bokhari@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, April 12, 2007 11:54 AM
   To: 'Fred Burton'; howerton@stratfor.com; 'Reva Bhalla';
   analysts@stratfor.com
   Subject: RE: Humint - Bush Family
   Crocker is good but who do you pick as a plug to seal the breaking dam
   called Iraq?
    
    

   -------

   Kamran Bokhari

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   Senior Analyst, Middle East &amp; South Asia

   T: 202-251-6636

   F: 905-785-7985

   bokhari@stratfor.com

   www.stratfor.com

    

   -----Original Message-----
   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, April 12, 2007 12:50 PM
   To: howerton@stratfor.com; 'Bokhari, Kamran Asghar'; 'Reva Bhalla';
   analysts@stratfor.com
   Subject: RE: Humint - Bush Family

   Nah, Negroponte is an old State Dept Black Dragon and prick.  Look at Ryan
   Crocker, this is a short term gig for a lame duck. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Walter Howerton [mailto:howerton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, April 12, 2007 11:23 AM
   To: 'Bokhari, Kamran Asghar'; 'Reva Bhalla'; 'Fred Burton';
   analysts@stratfor.com
   Subject: RE: Humint - Bush Family
   Don Imus, who can chant mea culpa, mea culpa for the next couple or years
   as well as anyone in the bush admin.
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Bokhari, Kamran Asghar [mailto:bokhari@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, April 12, 2007 11:19 AM
   To: 'Reva Bhalla'; 'Fred Burton'; analysts@stratfor.com
   Subject: RE: Humint - Bush Family
   Am thinking Negroponte. He was former amb to Iraq, nat'l intel czar, and
   now I think he is an assistant secy of state in DoS, no?
    
    

   -------

   Kamran Bokhari

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   Senior Analyst, Middle East &amp; South Asia

   T: 202-251-6636

   F: 905-785-7985

   bokhari@stratfor.com

   www.stratfor.com

    

   -----Original Message-----
   From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, April 12, 2007 12:06 PM
   To: 'Fred Burton'; analysts@stratfor.com
   Subject: RE: Humint - Bush Family

   any more word on who her replacement would be?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, April 12, 2007 11:05 AM
   To: 'Reva Bhalla'; analysts@stratfor.com
   Subject: RE: Humint - Bush Family
   As I reported 'bout two weeks ago from one of the 12 richest Jews who
   control the world, the right-wing Jewish lobby has geared up the ground
   swell to run her out of dodge.  
    
   Money buys access.  Bottom feeders vote. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, April 12, 2007 11:01 AM
   To: 'Fred Burton'; analysts@stratfor.com
   Subject: RE: Humint - Bush Family
   Cheney had an edge?
    
   Does seem like Rice has taken a back seat... no one even pays attention to
   her anymore

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, April 12, 2007 11:01 AM
   To: analysts@stratfor.com
   Subject: Humint - Bush Family
   According to a source very close to the Bush family, Cheney has told
   POTUS SecState needs to go.  Reportedly, she has been running amok with
   her Middle-East policies and is out on a limb that will be sawed off.    W
   has been letting her do what she wants with little oversight or guidance. 
   Source advises he does not believe Negroponte will be her replacement. 
    
   41 believes that Rumsfeld was a disaster and Barbara calls him "that
   lunatic."   41 also blames Dougles Feith for cooking the books on WMD in
   Iraq.   
    
   Source stated that he counseled W to negotiate and deal with the 256
   various clans in Iraq, which could have been bought off "like all Arabs",
   but W refused.  His "Texas cocky attitude" has resulted in a disaster. 
   The next 18 months will be worse.     
    
   The Saudis have gone to the Israelis (bypassing Rice) wanting to know what
   the U.S. plans to do in Iraq.  The Saudis believe the Americans are out of
   control. 
    
   Source believes Cheney "has lost his edge and is burned out" after his
   last heart attack. 
    
    
    
    
    
    
</description>
    <date>2007-04-12 19:08:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-23 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1230162_re-humint-bush-family-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>howerton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1230215</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
   height.

   On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

     Was the shooter a Libyan?

     On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:25:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1230215_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>hoor.jangda@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1230234</id>
    <title>Fwd: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   190 cm?
   see what i mean? this means nothing to me

   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Hoor Jangda &lt;hoor.jangda@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: 2011 Julai 22 15:25:24 GMT-05:00
     To: alpha@stratfor.com
     Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
     Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;

     the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
     height.

     On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

       Was the shooter a Libyan?

       On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:37:34</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1230234_fwd-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>kevin.stech@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bayless.parsley@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1230660</id>
    <title>Re: RESEARCH REQUEST - Brazil &amp; Colombia sign a hot pursuit treaty
 of 50 km
</title>
    <description>   Hey - This is kinda old. Haven't updated since I was an intern doing FARC
   but just in case it is useful - Here is a map approximating the locations
   of the FARC blocs and a breakdown of the Eastern bloc fronts - no. of
   combatants, etc. - that border Brazil.

                       FARC - Eastern Bloc                                    
        Commanders: Jorge Briceno Suarez aka "Mono Jojoy"                     
              "Granobles" aka German Briceno Suarez                           
              "Romana" aka Henry Castellanos Garzon                           
      Front     Department   Commander     No. of      Recent   Notes         
                                         Combantants  Activity  
                                                     Commander  believed to   
                            "Cesar" aka              "Doris     be holding    
                            Gerardo                  Adriana"   political     
   1st Front   Guaviare     Antonio              400 aka Luz    hostages      
                            Aguilar                  Dary Conde including     
                                                     arrested   Betancourt    
                                                     in 2008    
                            "Willington"                                      
   7th Front   Meta         aka Carlos           200             
                            Julio Vargas 
                            Medina       
                            "El Marrano"                                      
   10th Front  Arauca       aka Carlos           200             
                            Julio Avila  
                            "El Negro                "El Negro  considered to 
                            Acacio" aka              Acacio"    be the main   
   16th Front  Vichada      Tomas Molina         300 killed in  drug          
                            Caracas                  2007       trafficking   
                                                                front         
                            "Hugo" aka               "Hugo"                   
   22nd Front  Cundinamarca Wilmer               120 captured    
                            Antonio                  in 2003    
                            Marin Cano   
                            "Hugo                    "Hugo                    
                            Sandoval                 Sandoval   
   26th Front  Meta         Ruiz" aka            130 Ruiz"       
                            Angel Oveido             killed in  
                            Yara                     2007       
                                                     "El                      
                            "Jorge 40"               Medico" or in charge of  
   27th Front  Meta         aka Gener            200 "El Tio"   financial     
                            Garcia                   captured   flow
                            Molina                   March 27,  
                                                     2008       
                            "Julian                                           
               Casanare &amp;   Arevalo" aka 
   28th Front  Boyaca       Aristipo             120             
                            Alponte      
                            Alvarado     
                                                                has not been  
   31st Front  Meta                              120            notable       
                                                                active        
   38th Front  Casanare &amp;   "Efrain              100                          
               Boyaca       Mendez"      
   39th Frony  Vichada                           120                          
   40th Front  Meta                              350                          
                                                     "El                      
                            "Geovany                 Campesino" 
                            Rodriguez"               aka Jose   
   42nd Front  Cundinamarca aka Ernesto          110 Nerup       
                            Orjuela                  Reyes Pena 
                            Tovar                    killed     
                                                     2007       
                            "Jorge 40"                                        
   43rd Front  Meta         aka Gener            150             
                            Garcia       
                            Molina       
   44th Front  Meta                              120                          
                            "Rafael                                           
               Norte de     Gutierrez"   
   45th Front  Santander &amp;  aka Luis             150             
               Boyaca       Eduardo      
                            Marin        
                            "Hermides"               "Hermides"               
                            aka Jose                 captured   
   51st Front  Cundinamarca Paramenides           80 in 2002,    
                            Castro                   no recent  
                                                     activity   
               Cundinamarca "El Zarco"                                        
   52nd Front  &amp; Boyaca     aka Manuel           120             
                            Sierra       
                                                     "Eliecer"                
                            "El Zarco"               aka        
   53rd Front  Cundinamarca aka Manuel           120 Bertulfo    
               &amp; Meta       Sierra                   Garcia     
                                                     captured   
                                                     in 2005    
   54th Front  Cundinamarca                       50            Believed to   
                                                                be terminated 
                            "Nelson                             Responsible   
                            Robles" aka                         for the       
   55th Front  Cundinamarca Julio                 70            majority of   
                            Enrique                             FARC activity 
                            Rincon Rico                         in Bogota     
                            "Reuben" aka                                      
                            Armando                              
                            Barbosa      
                            Tovar        
                                                     "Jeronimo                
                                                     Aljure"    
   56th Front  Casanare &amp;                         80 aka Jorge   
               Boyaca                                Martinez   
                                                     captured   
                                                     in 2004    
   Antonio                  "Chucho" aka             Chuco      seeks to      
   Narino      Cundinamarca Marbel                50 captured   operate in    
   Front                    Zamora                   October    Bogota        
                                                     29, 2008   
   Columns and Companies in the Eastern Bloc                                  
   Front       Department   Commander    No. of      Recent     Notes         
                                         Combantants Activity   
                                                                Mobile Column 
   Alfonso     Arauca                            120            - Faction of  
   Castellanos                                                  the 10th      
                                                                Front         
   Juan Jose   Guaviare                          250            Mobile Column 
   Rondon      
   Special     former DMZ                         80            Mobile Column 
   Forces      
   Company                                                                    
   Reinel      former DMZ                         80             
   Mendez      
   Company                                                                    
   Esteban     former DMZ                         80             
   Ramirez     
   Company                                                                    
   Manuela     Cundinamarca                       50             
   Beltran     
   Company                                                                    
   Abelardo    Cundinamarca                       40             
   Romero      
   Company                                                                    
   Joaquin     Cundinamarca                      140             
   Ballen      
   Company Che former DMZ                        120                          
   Guevara     

   Kristen Cooper wrote:

     Hey Karen - Below and attached is what I was able to pull together on
     Brazil's military presence in the Amazon region. Let me know if there is
     more you need.

     Brazil Military - Amazon Region

      

     Brazilian Military

     Army = Amazonian Command (Manaus, Amazonas) - 8th Military Region

     Navy = HQ IX Manaus, Amazonas

      

      

     Army = 120,000 + 70,000 conscripts = 190,000 total

     Jungle Infantry =

       o 5 bridgades
       o 15 battalions

      

     State police for Amazon and border patrol under army control.

      

     Navy = 67,000

     Military Command of the 9th Naval District

     Command of the fleet of Amazonas

     ComFlotAM = 5 patrol boats

      

                             Amazonas  Command - AM

                http://www.exercito.gov.br/06OMs/indiceom/am.htm

     Command of the Military Command of the Amazon - Manaus Cmdo CMA
     www.cma.eb.mil.br 

     Command of Border - Rio Negro and 5th Infantry Battalion of the Jungle -
     Sao Gabriel da Cachoeira Cmdo R Fron Black / 5 A
     www.cfrn5bis.eb.mil.br  

     Command of Border - Solimoes and 8th Infantry Battalion of the Jungle -
     Tabatinga Cmdo Fron Solimoes / 8 A www.8bis.eb.mil.br 

     Command of the 2nd Infantry Brigade of the Jungle - Sao Gabriel da
     Cachoeira Cmdo 2nd Bda Inf Sl

     Command of the 2nd Grouping of Engineering - Manaus Cmdo 2 gpt E

     Command of the 12th Military Region - Manaus Cmdo 12th RM

     Command of the 16th Infantry Brigade of the Jungle - Tefe Cmdo 16th Bda
     Inf Sl

     Regional Commission for Works of the 12th Military Region - Manaus
     CRO/12

     Company Command Military Command of the Amazon - Manaus Cia Cmdo CMA

     Company Command of the 2nd Infantry Brigade of the Jungle - Sao Gabriel
     da Cachoeira Cia Cmdo 2nd Bda Inf Sl

     Company of the 2nd Command Grouping of Engineering - Manaus Cmdo Cia 2
     gpt E

     Company Command of the 12th Military Region - Manaus Cmdo Cia 12th RM

     Company Command 16th Infantry Brigade of the Jungle - Tefe

     Cia Cmdo 16th Bda Inf Sl

     1st Company of Statement of Jungle - Manaus 1st Cia With Sl
     1st Precinct of the 29th Military Service CSM - Parintins 1st Del SM/29
     of CSM
     1st Infantry Battalion of the Jungle - Manaus 1 A

     2nd Precinct of the 29th Military Service CSM - Itacoatiara 2nd Del
     SM/29 of CSM

     3rd Special Forces Company - Manaus 3rd Cia Esp F
     3rd Precinct of the 29th Military Service CSM - Manaus 3rd Del SM/29 of
     CSM

     4th Precinct of the 29th Military Service CSM - Tefe 4th Del SM/29 of
     CSM

     4th Division of Survey - Manaus 4th DL www.4dl.eb.mil.br
     4th Battalion of the Army Aviation - Manaus 4 B Av Ex
     www.4esqdavex.eb.mil.br 
     4 Center for Telematics Area - Manaus 4 CTA www.cma.eb.mil.br  
     5th Precinct of the 29th Military Service CSM - Tabatinga 5th Del SM/29
     of CSM

     6th Precinct of the Military Service of the 31st CSM - Humaita 6th Del
     SM/31 of CSM

     7th Precinct of the 29th Military Service CSM - Barcelos 7th Del SM/29
     of CSM

     12th Company of Guards - Manaus 12th Cia Gd
     12th Police Company of the Army - Manaus 12th Cia PE
     12th Inspectorate of Army Finance And Accounting - Manaus 12th ICF Ex
     12th Battalion of Supply - Manaus 12 Sup B

     16th Logistics Base - 16th Tefe Log Ba
     16 Platoon of Communications of Jungle - Tefe
       16 Pel With SL

     17th Infantry Battalion of the Jungle - Tefe 17 BIS

     21 -a Companhia de Engenharia de Construc,ao - Sao Gabriel da Cachoeira
     21 -a Cia And CNST

     22 Police Platoon of the Army - San Gabriel da Cachoeira 22 Pel PE

     29th district of Military Service - Manaus 29th CSM www.29csm.eb.mil.br 

     34 Police Platoon of the Army - Tefe 34 Pel PE

     54 Infantry Battalion of the Jungle - Humaita 54 A www.54bis.eb.mil.br

      

      

     Amazon Command Logistics

      

     1 - The Challenge of the jungle
     The Amazon Jungle contains nearly a third of the planet's tropical
     forests. It is a true "ocean of trees." large and dangerous. She is so
     huge in fact, that the equivalent cross-cross the Atlantic Ocean between
     Africa and the Americas.

     The extensive and dense Amazonian forest is endowed with huge mesh
     basin, poor road network, high levels of humidity, rainfall and constant
     risk of tropical diseases, and it is the major obstacle to the logistics
     operations, either in operations or in support for organizations
     Military based in the area. There is the world no region so inhospitable
     and frightening as the Tropical Jungle.

     The 8th Military Region (8th RM) has a logistics area of responsibility
     of more than 1,500,000 km2, which represents approximately 18% of
     national territory. In real challenge to meet your Organicac,oes
     Military (OM) contingent, are employed means of the Brazilian Air Force
     (FAB), and organic car ferries and the 8th of Supply Depot (8 Sup D).

     The adversity of the environment directly influence the performance of
     man and material. The deterioration of the items of supply is a constant
     and real threat that demands the taking of special measures to preserve,
     such as conducting periodic purge of the food, the climate of depots and
     warehouses and preventive maintenance of stocked items.

     Besides these, other challenges have been defeated by the 8th RM in 1997
     to provide the necessary support to the OM under their responsibility,
     such as:

     - Creation of the lining of Maraba Hospital, opened in October 1997;

     - Production, distribution and installation of seven dental offices for
     OM;

     - Reequipping of doctors;

     - Collection and distribution of two modules of boats tactics for the
     2nd Infantry Battalion of the Jungle (2 A - Bethlehem) and the 52
     Infantry Battalion of the Jungle (52 A - Maraba-PA);

     - Installation of a ramp to facilitate loading and unloading, the vessel
     floating Codajas and Logistics;

     - Rationalization of the distribution of quotas of fuel to OM, offering
     economy and allowing the supply of petrol and diesel to April to March
     1998;

     - Reducing the rate of pre-availability of vehicles, by using funds from
     the Department of Transportation;

     - Fosfatizac,ao of 1880 OM regional arms of Arsenal in the War of Rio de
     Janeiro, with employment of aircraft for the transport of FAB;

     - Making operational ration alternative, using items of food in the
     trade, with great economy and good acceptance by the troop maneuvers in
     the Strait of brief and the State of Amapa;

     - Increased storage capacity of the cold chambers of OM further from
     Bethlehem and

     - The use of C-130 aircraft of the Support Plan Amazon, for carrying
     supplies, and the C-95 of the agreement with the FAB, to carry the team
     Regional Park Maintenance / 8 (Pq R Mnt / 8), General Hospital of Belem
     (HGeBe) and Regional Commission for Works / 8 (CRO / 8), and perform any
     evacuations in order to meet the entire area of responsibility of the
     8th MR.

     2 - Insulation
     8th in the RM, the largest population density are at the margins of the
     main roads and rivers: Imperatriz (MA), Maraba, Altamira, Itaituba and
     Santarem, in Para

     Climatic conditions, the precariousness of the roads, particularly the
     Transamazon and the great distances inland to overcome, this isolation
     makes it the most difficult one for the completion of logistical
     support.

     3 - Large distances
     The road infrastructure priority, traditionally, means river, which are
     considered the most viable for logistical support to troops in Macapa,
     Santarem, and Itaituba Altamira, drawing up the routes of the network
     hidroviaria of the Amazon Basin.

     Addressing the troops in cantoned Oiapoque (AP) is a special challenge.
     The activity can be done by sea, rising up after the river of the same
     name or, as is currently done by the combination of the waterway to
     Macapa, the road of 620 kilometers through the BR-156, which connects
     one the capital city of Oiapoque, or by air.

     The roads south of Para, in theory, allow any support to the troops
     positioned along the highway Transamazon, ie Maraba, Altamira and
     Itaituba. However, its lack of traffic during periods of rain
     particularly difficult logistical support for these two cities,
     requiring the employment of means of inland 8 Sup D and / or aircraft of
     the FAB for the transport of supplies.

     The following table summarizes the distances to be overcome and the
     means employed by 8 Sup D to support the troops in charge of logistics
     8th RM

     VENUE OF OM Road (Km) Anv C-130 (h) Ferry (days)
     Oiapoque - 1:40 5
     Macapa - 1:00 2
     Santarem - 1:30 5
     Itaituba - 2:00 6
     Altamira - 1:20 3
     Maraba 668 - --
     Empress 578 - --

     4 - The limitations of the means of communications and transport
     The communications environment in the jungle suffer effects of weather
     such as torrential rain, humidity, heat and limitations offered by the
     scarcity of roads, poor visibility at ground curled in some areas and
     the dense vegetation.

     However, the 8th MRI was able to test with success, some communications
     equipment during the "Operation Brief" and "Operation Amapa", held at
     the end of 1997.

     We used the following equipment: TW 7000; generating solar power,
     portable generator, automatic telephone exchange, telegraph handlers,
     all radio EB-11 ERC 131/TPX720 to link earth - air, maintaining contact
     with military aircraft to 50 km away , and the same at 1,000 feet
     altitude, TW 2000 (run); KENWOOD with laptop or desktop, integrating
     radio-wire (IRF) and the use of brief radio station for the transmission
     of messages pre-established.

     The question of means of transport to be used in large-scale
     displacement is closely linked to the isolation of the units to be
     supported, the volume of material to be transported and the speed you
     wish. You can say that the mesh of the Eastern Amazon river meets the
     needs of access roads to large for the implementation of logistical
     support. However, although significant, the road is of poor quality,
     particularly in the BR-230 and 156, during the rainy months.

     With this, the growing importance of maintenance of vehicles, the use of
     ferries and FAB for the logistical support to always reach the end of
     the line.

     5 - Support to civilian populations and indigenous
     The Army, through its military organizations (OM) distributed along the
     borders, major rivers and roads, providing essential support to
     communities and indigenous civilians.

     The 8th Military Region supports this activity, providing conditions for
     the functioning of hospitals to trim jobs and health care, both in
     personnel and in equipment and medicines.

     With the participation of the Region, the OM able to support various
     operations performing the type Civic Action Committee (ACIS) and joint
     campaigns with the Prefecture of the various towns in visits in the
     specialized field of medical health, dental and laboratory, with the
     objective to raise community spirit between the army and the local
     community.

     These activities are quite common, particularly in more isolated and
     Military Organizations, Santarem, Itaituba, north of Altamira and
     Cleveland.

      

      

                      Amazon Naval Command - 9th District

                           http://www.mar.mil.br/9dn/

      

     Organizations subordinate to the Military Command of the 9th Naval
     District

       o Command of the fleet of Amazonas
       o Capitania the Amazon River West
       o Battalion Operations Ribeirinha
       o Capitania River to Tabatinga
       o Naval Station Rio Negro
       o Deposit Naval Manaus
       o 3rd Squadron of Helicopters General Employment

      

     OM subordinated to ComFlotAM

       o P-30 Patrol Boat River Roraima
       o P-31 Patrol Boat River Rondonia
       o P-32 Patrol Boat River Amapa
       o P-20 Patrol Boat River Teixeira
       o P-21 Patrol Boat River Raposo Tavares
       o U-16 Hospital Doctor Ship Assistance Montenegro
       o U-18 Ship Assistance Hospital Oswaldo Cruz
       o U-19 Ship Assistance Hospital Carlos Chagas

      

     OM subordinated to CFAOC
     River station of Porto Velho
       Agency of River Tefe
       Agency of River Eirunepe
       Agency of Boca do Acre River
       Agency of River Guajara Mirim
       Agency of Itacoatiara River
       Agency of Parintins River

      

     Karen Hooper wrote:

       1) What are the most prominent (or any), non-Afghanistan/Pakistan hot
       pursuit agreements between countries around the world?
       2) Need a status update on Brazilian forces deployed to the Amazon
       regions: Where are they? How many are there?

       Priority 1

       Please let me know who takes this.

       It might be best to split the two questions up.

       Thanks!
       --
       Karen Hooper
       Latin America Analyst
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com

 --
 Kristen Cooper
 Researcher
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com
 512.744.4093 - office
 512.619.9414 - cell
 kristen.cooper@stratfor.com

 --
 Kristen Cooper
 Researcher
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com
 512.744.4093 - office
 512.619.9414 - cell
 kristen.cooper@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-03-12 16:59:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-02 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1230660_re-research-request-brazil-and-colombia-sign-a-hot-pursuit.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>hooper@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>nathan.hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kristen.cooper@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>researchers@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/107/107203_clip_image002.gif</path><size>75680</size><md5></md5><sha1>ff44a46b7c8f7260ac5aebbf5ae6191db4e6445b</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1232132</id>
    <title>Fwd: Africa source list -- updated
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-09-20 18:11:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-06 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1232132_fwd-africa-source-list-updated-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>meredith.friedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/107/107401_Africa Insight List 110919.xls</path><size>207872</size><md5></md5><sha1>f86296de032a9d9c8ddc30eb50b9becf36c5cd11</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1234734</id>
    <title>PAID SOURCE NETWORK
</title>
    <description>   Here is the first cut of the proposed system. It lays out the basic
   procedural elements. Let us discuss, critique, and refine it.

    

                Proposed System to Develop a Paid Source Network

                                        

   Our efforts to develop into a true global intelligence company which
   offers its clients, analyses and forecasts, better than anyone else,
   requires, among other things, a reliable network of well-placed sources.
   What this means is that we will have to increasingly move towards
   developing paid sources. Obviously, our financial limitations will
   determine how fast we can achieve this goal.

    

   As of now we have very few paid sources who we hired as and when we came
   to know of them and we determined that we needed to have them and that we
   could from a financial standpoint. This approach served our needs for
   quite some time but now that we are aggressively moving towards global
   operations it is essential that we have a system by which we enhance our
   source capabilities. Such a system should allow us to uniformly develop
   the network across the various aors.

    

   As each aor enhances its understanding of various parts of its respective
   region, it is only natural that it will come across the need for paid
   sources. Each aor head working with the corresponding field analyst will
   identify the need for a source in x country or y region. These two senior
   analysts - given that they are jointly responsible for maintaining
   situational awareness - will determine the need based on the geopolitical
   significance of the area/issue.

    

   Once there is a consensus within the aor that having a paid source in a
   given area is critical to their operational needs, the aor will submit a
   request to the Vice-President of Tactical Intelligence (VP-TI) with all
   the necessary details justifying their specific requirement. The VP-TI,
   working with the CFO and CEO, would already have developed a budget to
   address the needs of all the aors within the analytical group, would then
   coordinate with the relevant field analyst and the CEO in reviewing the
   request. Whether or not a particular request will be approved will be
   based on the strategic priorities of the company, financial bandwidth,
   which aor takes precedence at a given point in time, and availability of
   reliable sources.

    

   Once an approval has been issued, the VP-TI will then work with the
   relevant field analyst to identify and process suitable candidates for the
   position. The field analyst will most likely have at least one candidate
   already in the pipeline and will provide the details (identity,
   background, occupation, affiliations, location, etc) of the candidate to
   the VP-TI. While the VP-TI is the one who will decide on whether or not
   person A will be hired as a paid source, he will be heavily dependent upon
   input from the field analyst to make his decision.

    

   The final stage is one where compensation will be negotiated with the
   prospective source. The VP-TI will let the field analyst know what the
   company can offer, which will then be relayed via the field analyst to the
   source. This proposed process is complete if and when the company and the
   source agree on a particular amount.  

     

    

    
</description>
    <date>2009-12-10 14:47:29</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-03 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1234734_paid-source-network-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>excomm@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1237789</id>
    <title>Re: Weekly
</title>
    <description>   Thank you

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Aaric Eisenstein" &lt;eisenstein@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Sat, 23 Jan 2010 22:30:02 -0600 (CST)
   To: 'Fred Burton'&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: RE: Weekly
   Hey-
    
   Sorry to hear about your wife's dad.  My father-in-law is a pretty
   prominent doc in Houston.  If you need anything at all or have questions
   about anybody, etc., please don't hesitate to ask.  I'd be more than glad
   to get him to help out however.
    
   All best,
    
   AA
    
   Aaric S. Eisenstein
   Chief Innovation Officer
   STRATFOR
   512-744-4308
   512-744-4334 fax
   aaric.eisenstein@stratfor.com
   Follow us on http://Twitter.com/stratfor
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, January 22, 2010 4:39 PM
   To: 'Exec'
   Subject: Weekly
   Business
    
   Positive developments with TrapWire in light of the Texas State Capital
   shooting.  I chatted w/the DPS Director and lead Commissioner about the
   need to get this moving so one of my hand picked men was re-assigned today
   to move this off center.  Thank goodness for crazy people.  I wrote the
   master plan to cover all of the DPS bldgs statewide, so if we get one, the
   rest will fall in line.  
    
   Visited w/South African Nate (about UT website lead) and Darryl about the
   opportunities in the on-line educational market as it pertains to homeland
   security, terrorism, security and intelligence analysis courses.  There
   are thousands of US Govt hacks and DOD folks taking on-line courses at
   places like AMU and Henley-Putnam.  The dean at Henley-Putnam is an old
   USSS crony, as a side bar.   I also know one of his chief CIA
   instructors.  He uses Ghost for his surveillance classes.  I think we are
   a natural fit for these schools.  Showed Darryl a good number of the
   on-line courses that are wonderful.    There are approx. 100 schools with
   similar programs to include Kings College in London.   How do we sell them
   our products?  I got no idea.  But, I know how our work would be helpful
   to their students.   
    
   Tactical
    
   Fast-paced week with intel collected on Haiti, the second wave plot
   (aviation), domestic terror plots, Iranian scientist whacked by Lord knows
   who.  
    
   I've learned that AP has an undercover reporter in Iran.  I've used one of
   my AP contacts to task that source to look into the scientist killing. 
    
    
   Media
    
   WTOP radio; Univision (MX) tv on TX State Capital shooting; CNN Atlanta on
   background re Fusion centers.  
    
   An old interview on covert action inside Iran is also getting a fair
   amount of play in various blogs and websites. 
    
   Other
    
   My father-in-law is at MD Anderson for stomach cancer consultations (thank
   you for the help Don) and my wife is taking it pretty hard.  We don't know
   how bad off he may be and are awaiting further tests.  I may need to pop
   down there next week for awhile.   He's a tough old man who has drank far
   too much over the years, so if anybody can beat this, he can. 
    
   My old high school pal Andy Serwer, the Managing Editor of Fortune, has a
   new book out.  It's called Starting Over.   Somehow, he managed to get
   that old coot Walter Isaacson to write a testimonial for his book.  I
   thought he was dead. 
    
   I'm looking at the concept proposal for the movie script for
   Ghost.   Kinda surreal.  I've penciled in more hair.   I just want some
   hot chick to play my sidekick.  Why not?  It's Hollywood. 
    
    
    
    
    
</description>
    <date>2010-01-24 14:46:17</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1237789_re-weekly-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eisenstein@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1239829</id>
    <title>fyi
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2007-09-05 15:42:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1239829_fyi-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eisenstein@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/107/107978_Intelligence Glossary.doc</path><size>199680</size><md5></md5><sha1>3f5b288c197167aedea3ae3023a078d5f426b5b8</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1243529</id>
    <title>Re: IMPORTANT: Folha and STRATFOR - a cooperation
</title>
    <description>   Hi ladies.  After reading this convo it seems you've got everything under
   control.  I have a few extra thoughts below in blue in the contract.  Keep
   me posted on what the lawyer says.  On another note, Allison, asking the
   Latam team for weekly confed questions, if you are the POC is a great
   idea.  I do it with EA and Antonia does it for Eurasia.  There is no
   reason why you shouldn't do it as well.  As for making you the official
   POC, I also have no problem with that, but I'll let Meredith make the
   final call.  Reva, like Marko, has a lot on her plate, so I'm sure she
   would welcome going through you.  Not to mention you are the best choice
   in terms of language.  I do believe that Reva is using Paulo for a lot of
   her confed work and I think that's beneficial.

   Cooperation Agreement between Strategic Forecasting, Inc. d/b/a Stratfor
   ("STRATFOR") and Empresa Folha da Manha S.A. (Folha de S.Paulo Newspaper)
   ("Folha")

    

   STRATFOR and Folha would like to form a collaboration in which
   information, reports and opinions will be shared.

    

   This agreement will remain force for a period of 12 months commencing on
   June 01, 2011 unless earlier terminated with its provisions and ending on
   June 01, 2012.  

   As already noted I don't see this as a major problem but regardless of
   whether or not we keep this clause, we should make sure that they
   understand this is more of an MOU than an official contract.  That said, I
   do understand, Allison, that we may have to be a bit more flexible in
   dealing with Latam as they like to formalize things.  This seems to be a
   problem in some European countries too.

   Within this relationship STRATFOR will receive on demand (not sure what
   the need for this word is - just that we need to specifically request?
    One of the things that I explain to our potential POCs is that we expect
   communication to flow both ways about once a week and more if there is a
   crisis.  This is just informal dialogue via emails.) regular information
   or reports from Folha as well as breaking critical items of certain events
   of interest to STRATFOR. The information from Folha will come primarily
   from Brazil, but also information the organization receives from the
   surrounding region and globally. Regular information or reports to be
   provided by Folha are subject to availability. Folha must be mentioned as
   the source of information.  The first sentence is a given, but again I
   think we need to stress we are really just trying to maintain an open (and
   mutually beneficial!) dialogue and are not expecting them to write up
   formal reports for us.  On the second sentence, I agree with Meredith.  If
   we reprint in OV they should rest assured that not only will they be cited
   but we will also use their logo to link back to their website and also
   include a link to the piece.  As for the informal weekly dialogue, this is
   not cited if used within an analysis but filtered through our geopolitical
   methodology to help us to write the analysis.
    
   STRATFOR in return will share information on a regular basis with Folha in
   areas of its main focus. STRATFOR analysts will be available for
   interviews, sometimes exclusive, with Folha. STRATFOR will also provide
   complimentary accounts and access to www.stratfor.com for the journalists
   you designate which will allow them to quote from and reference STRATFOR
   analysis. 

    

   Our two free weekly analyses (Friedman on Geopolitics and Burton/Stewart
   on Security) may be republished by Folha at any time. Any other article
   from our paid content you wish to reprint in its entirety should be
   requested on a case by case basis. STRATFOR hereby warrants to Folha that
   it is the originator or is rightfully representing the originator of  the
   Materials; that is has the authority to grant to Folha all of the rights
   granted herein; and warrants the non-infringement of any patent,
   trademark, or copyright or any other right of a 3rd party on the
   Materials.  Here we just need to make sure that they have the proper lingo
   that Kyle has given us whenever they reprint: 
   "This report is republished with the express permission of STRATFOR and
   may not be republished by any other parties without STRATFOR's consent."
    With a link back to the original (and let's also get them our logos so
   they can use it to link back to the site - I'll send these in a separate
   email.)

   Both STRATFOR and Folha will support each other with background
   information and research at the request of the other. The collaboration
   and cooperation between STRATFOR and Folha shall evolve over time as each
   group's priorities and focus shift and change.

    

   The points of contact between STRATFOR and Folha will primarily be
   STRATFOR's South America Analyst, Reva Bhalla and Folha's Administrative
   Manager, Raimundo Chaves da Cunha Junior.

    

    

   Signed: ____________________________   Date:________________
                 George Friedman, CEO STRATFOR

    

    

   Signed: _____________________________ Date: ________________

                 Raimundo Chaves da Cunha Junior, Administrative Manager,
   Folha

    

    

     No worries waiting a bit to hear back from the lawyer.  I agree with
     Antonia's line about how to cite us as STRATFOR for brand reocgnition
     being included in the contract. 

     As for using and citing their reports and citing, I can work to explain
     that in my response email.  Since we mentioned them reprinting our
     reports I can see where they may have gotten some confusion and assume
     we'd be looking to do the exact same thing.

     As for the logo, I made no mention of logos when I approached them.  The
     proposed contract and conversation had already  been handed to them
     before I had been updated on our new logo project.  Renato and I checked
     their website to see if there is any partnership page and there is
     none.  The closest thing is one that features Folha Group but those are
     obviously all part of the same parent company.  They do have a folha
     book store which we may be able to work with down the line. I have no
     idea how it works but they have a spot to sell books and we print books.
     http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/institucional/
     http://livraria.folha.com.br/

     I'll wait to hear more from you guys before passing back our version of
     the contract in response to theirs.  I'm excited about this one if it
     goes through :)
     Allison

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Meredith Friedman" &lt;mfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Antonia Colibasanu" &lt;colibasanu@stratfor.com&gt;
     Cc: "Allison Fedirka" &lt;allison.fedirka@stratfor.com&gt;, "Jennifer
     Richmond" &lt;richmond@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Monday, June 6, 2011 12:47:26 PM
     Subject: Re: IMPORTANT: Folha and STRATFOR - a cooperation

     I forwarded it to our lawyer to take a quick look at - I know he's
     traveling today so not sure when he'll get a chance to review it.
     Antonia's points are very good.

     On 6/6/11 12:39 PM, Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

       I'm really happy that Folha has accepted this being its size in
       Brazil! So from the marketing perspective, this is really good!

       On the first notes that their lawyers made - regarding the reports, I
       don't think Folha is clear what we mean by reports. You should make
       clear to them that we will not publish the reports. We may integrate
       the info we get in analysis but that doesn't mean that we'll publish
       their reports. You can add as example the fact that we always cite our
       sources in the sitreps we produce based on reports publicly available.

       Also, on Stratfor name, think we should be clear that anything that
       gets published as them citing us, is under name STRATFOR not Strategic
       Forecasting as we don't want to lose the brand and people get
       confused. So maybe add a line there about this?

       On the last - referring to the originator of materials, I'd really
       like a lawyer to look at that but I don't think it's necessarily
       bad...they'll probably translate the weeklies so we need to make sure
       they don't make huge interpretation in Portuguese when they translate
       that. Most importantly, we also want to make sure that the weekly
       appears as a STRATFOR product, only translated by Folha.

       Also, should we include a paragraph about our logo on their webpage?
       I've made an attempt and attached the draft with the logo paragraph -
       let me know what you think. I think we should say in the contract as
       with the bigger media partners - and the smaller ones that have
       lawyers and bureaucracy for this sort of things - are probably going
       to be less flexible with us asking for new deals like the logo being
       put on their website after the contract is signed. So am concerned
       that they may ask for signing adendums to contracts when we ask for
       logos...

       Allison Fedirka wrote:

         Hi Meredith and Antonia (and Jen if you are reading this),

         As you already know, I've been in contact with A Folha here in Sao
         Paulo.  It's a huge newspaper in the country - well connected and
         ranked first or second in natl circulation.  They were interested in
         cooperating with us.  I've been talking with a couple of people
         about coming to a common agreement for cooperation. 

         The managing editors looked it over and liked it enough to have the
         paper's lawyers look at the agreement.  As you can see they proposed
         some changes - some of which are harmless, such as referring to the
         company by Strategic Forecasting and putting an expiration date
         (after which we could renew the agreement).  There are other changes
         that you guys (or our company lawyers if we have them) need to look
         over to decide if the agreement is acceptable.  If you guys could
         look over that and get back to me sooner than later, that'd be
         great.  Their turn around time with the lawyers was about a week.

         Two other points of business....
         1) If we are going to start any serious negotiations or challenges
         with them please give me some pointers/prompting for writing back to
         them.  I'm good at individual, unofficial lnegotiations but have
         little experience openly playgin corporate hard bally
         2) Now may be a good time figure out how to handle adding new Latam
         confed partners.  As I've mentioned to Jen and Antonia, Karen is a
         fan of how in Europe Antonia makes and handles the confed
         relationships and does a general call for questions.  Karen proposed
         that we start doing that in Latam with me since that helps avoid
         passing people around, concentrates the confed flow and avoids any
         language barriers.  I bring this up now because if we decide to move
         forward with Folha, this decision will affect the Stratfor name on
         the contract.  If Latam tries to copy Europe, Karen suggested I
         assume Antonia's role.  If we decide to hand off papers to different
         analysts, we'd most likely put Reva's name down since she does more
         with Brazil than Karen.

         I know I've thrown a lot at you gals.  The most pressing matter in
         all of this is our response to Folha's version of the contract since
         I don't want to keep them waiting too long.

         Happy Monday
         Allison

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: "Marie Racheline Lyn Attia" &lt;marie.attia@grupofolha.com.br&gt;
         To: "allison fedirka" &lt;allison.fedirka@stratfor.com&gt;
         Sent: Friday, June 3, 2011 6:02:39 PM
         Subject: Folha and STRATFOR - a cooperation

         Dear Allison,
          
          
         Could you please see attached the Stratfor agreement with the lawyers
         changes. Do not hesitate to contact me if you have any questions.
          
         Thanks for your help.
          
         Best regrads,
          
         Marie  

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         De: Marie Racheline Lyn Attia
         Enviado: quinta-feira, 2 de junho de 2011 11:49
         Para: Allison Fedirka; Ana Estela de Sousa Pinto
         Assunto: RES: RES: RES: RES: RES: A Folha and STRATFOR - a
         cooperation
         Hi Allison,
          
         Great! If our lawyers will need something I'll be in touch with you.
          
         Regards,
          
         Marie Racheline Lyn Attia
         Gerente-Assistente Administrativa da Redac,ao
         Assistant Administrative Manager for the Editorial Staff
         Folha de S.Paulo (Brazil)
         Fone: (+55 11) 3224 7953 / 3224 7904

         http://www.folha.com.br/sobre
         http://www.folha.com.br/english

          

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         De: Allison Fedirka [allison.fedirka@stratfor.com]
         Enviado: quinta-feira, 2 de junho de 2011 11:04
         Para: Ana Estela de Sousa Pinto
         Cc: Marie Racheline Lyn Attia
         Assunto: Re: RES: RES: RES: RES: A Folha and STRATFOR - a
         cooperation
          Goodmorning,

         Ana, thank you for the introduction. 

         Marie please do not hesitate to contact
         me if with any questions or concerns - no matter how big or small. 
         In case the phone is more convenient for you than email,
         I am passing along mycell numbers. 
         Brazil: +55.11.9343.7752
         US:  +1.512.496.3466

          Takecare
         Allison

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: "Ana Estela de Sousa Pinto" &lt;ana.estela@grupofolha.com.br&gt;
         To: "Allison Fedirka" &lt;allison.fedirka@stratfor.com&gt;
         Cc: "Marie Racheline Lyn Attia" &lt;marie.attia@grupofolha.com.br&gt;
         Sent: Thursday, June 2, 2011 8:54:13 AM
         Subject: RES: RES: RES: RES: A Folha and STRATFOR - a cooperation

         OK, Allison.

          

         I am cc-ing this to Marie Attia, who is in
         charge of dealing with the lawyers!

          

         =)

          

         Marie, if there is anything that should be added to the Stratfor
         agreement, please inform Allison.

          

         Best regards,

          

         Ana

          

         Ana Estela de Sousa Pinto
         Editora de Treinamento
         Folha de S.Paulo
         3224-3109

          

         Leia o nosso blog: http://novoemfolha.folha.blog.uol.com.br/

         Ouc,a os podcasts:
         http://search.folha.com.br/search?q=ana%20estela&amp;site=online%2Fpodcasts

          

          

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         AVISO: A informac,ao contida neste email, bem como em qualquer de
         seus anexos, e CONFIDENCIAL e destinada ao uso exclusivo do(s)
         destinatario(s) acima referido(s), podendo conter informac,oes
         sigilosas e/ou legalmente protegidas. Caso voce nao seja o
         destinatario desta mensagem, informamos que qualquer divulgac,ao,
         distribuic,ao ou copia deste email e/ou de qualquer de seus anexos e
         absolutamente proibida. Solicitamos que o remetente seja comunicado
         imediatamente, respondendo esta mensagem, e que o original desta
         mensagem e de seus anexos, bem como toda e qualquer copia e/ou
         impressao realizada a partir destes, sejam permanentemente apagados
         e/ou destruidos. Informac,oes adicionais sobre nossa empresa podem
         ser obtidas no site http://www.folha.uol.com.br/folha/conheca/ .

         NOTICE: The information contained in this email and any attachments
         thereto is CONFIDENTIAL and is intended only for use by the
         recipient named herein and may contain legally privileged and/or
         secret information. If you are not the email's intended recipient,
         you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution or copy
         of this email, and/or any attachments thereto, is strictly
         prohibited. Please immediately notify the sender replying to the
         above mentioned email address, and permanently delete and/or destroy
         the original and any copy of this email and/or its attachments, as
         well as any printout thereof. Additional information about our
         company may be obtained through the site
         http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/conheca/index-en.shtml .

 --
 Meredith Friedman
 VP,Communications
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com

 221 W. Sixth Street,
 Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 512 744 4301 - office
 512 426 5107 - cell

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-06-08 12:31:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-26 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1243529_re-important-folha-and-stratfor-a-cooperation-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>colibasanu@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>allison.fedirka@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1244937</id>
    <title>more on cote d'ivoire
</title>
    <description>   Audra,

   I shared your thoughts with one of our Africa peeps and he came back with
   the reply below.

   Hope all is well with you.  Are you back yet?  My vacation is almost
   over... ;(

   Jen

   Ouattara has political experience with palace intrigue and he has held top
   government and international organizational portfolios before. Plus he's
   personally close with the French. But he also has nipping at his heals his
   prime minister, the young Guillaume Soro, who, despite his age (39), is an
   extremely capable force who still commands substantial forces that I'd say
   are more loyal to him that Ouattara. Sure, Soro will never say he's not
   100% loyal to Ouattara, but Soro has played power politics and has
   achieved his advances through his own hard work and not through Ouattara's
   patronage. Ouattara was a vehicle for Soro to advance his own power play.

   For now Ouattara and Soro can play fair. Soro can afford to wait for his
   time to become president. Ouattara's got 30 years on him. Meanwhile, in
   northern Ivory Coast, the New Forces are still the factor in charge, not
   the Ivorian government who now has Ouattara as their chief executive.

     I've heard the same in feeling safer but that overall there is still a
     lot of tension. It is way too quite here and too quickly in my humble
     opinion. Apparently a battalion (about 200) of Marines (equivalent of
     special ops/commandos I suppose) went missing not in a have-been-killed
     sense but just disappeared. So there are real concerns about a potential
     coup in the future. I am sure the Ghanaian border side is fine but was
     never really an issue.

      

     The President is very good in the "business" of government regard but
     the feeling is that does not have a handle on the new military and how
     to integrate the rebels in and what is to be done with those that he
     cannot. Additionally, the rebels are not well disciplined and will need
     much training. The country is awash with weapons and people who have
     guns will need to be paid at some point. Ouattara will be a fine
     technocrat, but can he make the really tough and strong decisions
     vis-`a-vis security, that is more difficult. He's had these guys backing
     him for 10 years now and they are going to be expecting something out
     this. Additionally, feeling is that there is a crise de confiance in the
     government itself in that really qualified individuals are being thrown
     out due to suspicions of being in previous government and well, that's
     going to hit the civil sector rather hard.

      

     There still remains a good governance issue and the question of the
     integration of rebels into the military is huge on top of getting their
     parallel structures into the nation state. There are numerous parallel
     systems in the North and West and the economy of war is substantial. The
     spirit of vengeance in the West is rather high so would not be
     surprising to see some reprisals. And the Dozos are in charge of
     security in parts of the West and well they did kill the Guere so the
     displaced and refugee issue isn't going to go away soon. Then thrown
     some Liberian mercenaries on top of it and you definitely have a lot of
     potential for this to go bad.

      

     Your person on the ground is very pro-Ouattara and of course they feel
     very positive. Really is going to come down to if they can deliver and
     how to incorporate the losers back in or they will definitely be
     spoilers in the future.
</description>
    <date>2011-07-29 00:06:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1244937_more-on-cote-d-ivoire-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>adykman@chemonics.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1247981</id>
    <title>RE: today outside lehman
</title>
    <description>Those guys are all going to be mowing Fred's lawn! 


Aaric S. Eisenstein

Stratfor

SVP Publishing

700 Lavaca St., Suite 900

Austin, TX  78701

512-744-4308

512-744-4334 fax


-----Original Message-----
From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
On Behalf Of Fred Burton
Sent: Tuesday, October 14, 2008 8:59 PM
To: 'Analyst List'
Subject: RE: today outside lehman

HA!  This is great.  Hope the FBI takes droves away in cuffs.   

-----Original Message-----
From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
On Behalf Of Peter Zeihan
Sent: Tuesday, October 14, 2008 6:12 PM
To: 'Analysts'
Subject: today outside lehman



_______________________________________________
Analysts mailing list

LIST ADDRESS:
analysts@stratfor.com
LIST INFO:
https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts
LIST ARCHIVE:
https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts
</description>
    <date>2008-10-15 03:59:57</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2011-03-15 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1247981_re-today-outside-lehman-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1257071</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] [OS] CHINA/CSM - Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in
 fraud probe
</title>
    <description>   I agree with Alibaba and had flagged that too.  I didn't see the mention
   of trapwire in the story on Cisco.  Maybe I missed it.  Yes, keep me
   posted on any questions and I'll see what my contact can dig up.

   On 7/4/11 11:18 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     This is also a pretty good CSM topic.  some college kids running a scam
     through Alibaba (chinese ebay), took in a good amount of money. 

     If we had some good 'redism' related incidents, maybe I could write on
     that, but we'd need some very concise points to make. 

     Let me know what you guys think of this and the surveillance camera
     topic.

     Jen, I assume that Trapwire is a competitor to Cisco, but I'm not sure. 
     I don't know if trapwire makes the actual cameras or just does the
     analysis.   I won't have real questions till morning. 

     On 7/2/11 11:00 AM, Kevin Stech wrote:

       Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in fraud probe

       02 July 2011 - 08H10 

       http://www.france24.com/en/20110702-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-fraud-probe

        

       AFP - Police have arrested 36 people in southeast China following an
       investigation into fraud on e-commerce site Alibaba.com and other
       websites that duped buyers out of more than $6 million.

        

       Alizila.com, Alibaba's corporate news website, reported earlier this
       week the suspects were detained in Fujian province's Putian city in
       April. John Spelich, the firm's spokesman, confirmed the report to AFP
       on Saturday.

        

       The people arrested allegedly operated a criminal gang that used fake
       IDs to open more than 100 "Gold Supplier" accounts on Alibaba.com.
       This designation is given to those certified as highly trusted
       suppliers by the firm.

        

       This allowed the suspects to pose as legitimate companies selling to
       overseas businesses that source goods through Alibaba.com. Police said
       the alleged scammers also used other international trading websites.

        

       Alibaba.com, based in the eastern city of Hangzhou, has grown into one
       of China's largest Internet companies by matching mainland
       manufacturers and wholesalers with buyers around the world.

        

       But its reputation took a hit in February when the firm announced the
       resignation of chief executive David Wei and head of operations Elvis
       Lee after fraud was uncovered on the site.

        

       Wei and Lee were not involved in the scams but resigned because they
       took responsibility for "systemic breakdowns" that allowed the fraud
       to happen, Alibaba said at the time.

        

       But according to the Alizila report, the fraud was "sometimes abetted
       by Alibaba.com employees." But Spelich said Saturday none of the 36
       arrested worked at the company.

        

       He added the number of fraud complaints received by the website in
       June was down 70 percent from February after Alibaba toughened
       procedures and other security measures.

        

       The report said Alibaba had refunded $1.9 million to those who lost
       their money to the alleged scammers.

       Click here to find out more!

        

       Kevin Stech

       Director of Research | STRATFOR

       kevin.stech@stratfor.com

       +1 (512) 744-4086

        

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 07:22:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1257071_re-ct-os-china-csm-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-in.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1261332</id>
    <title>Re: FOR EDIT- Assange Arrest
</title>
    <description>   got it

   On 12/7/2010 9:15 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     *thanks to all for the very helpful comments. 

     Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks Survival

     Display: the Douchiest picture of Assange possible.  

      

     Summary:

     WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange was arrested in Britain December 7,
     following an Interpol Red Notice based on a Swedish warrant.  WikiLeaks
     is a new organization with one leader that has not institutionalized.
      Assange's arrest will test its ability to maintain itself as an
     institution, but the concept of leaking documents on the internet will
     continue.  

      

     Analysis:

     London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and
     public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7 when he turned
     himself in.  He is due to appear in a court in Westminster soon to face
     a hearing over charges against him in Sweden, and possible extradition.
      There is considerable interest in what this can mean for his
     organization.  While it's possible that Assange's arrest could disrupt
     the long-term viability of WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release of
     cables in the short-term and will not stop similar future leaks via the
     internet.

      

     Leadership can be extremely important in non-governmental organizations
     that have not institutionalized.  From &lt;terrorist groups&gt; [LINK:
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090923_death_top_indonesian_militant]
     to charities, new organizations often ebb and flow along with their
     founders.  WikiLeaks organized a new method for an old practice- leaking
     confidential government information in an attempt to influence politics.

      

     Assange created WikiLeaks with himself as the only public face-- he
     leads supporters, drives donations, gives interviews and faces
     criticism. There have been reports of internal dissent and tensions, and
     in one interview with CNN, discussion of the organizations internal
     politics seemed to touch a nerve with Assange.  If Assange were to face
     charges in Sweden for sexual assault or new charges in the UK or US and
     was found guilty, WikiLeaks would still need someone to operate it.
      Assange may have someone waiting in the wings, but that is not evident.

      

     WikiLeaks has also suffered logistically.  As national governments put
     pressure on its infrastructure, its websites have been shut down and
     most importantly a major source of funding, PayPal, has closed
     WikiLeaks' account (Mastercard has also banned payments from its card to
     WikiLeaks). It is also not clear whether the events of the last few
     months will encourage or deter other potential leakers from approaching
     Wikileaks as opposed to other organizations (especially if they dislike
     or disagree with Assange.  Moreover, this new set of documents have not
     worked out like Assange expected- the U.S. public is not angry at the
     State Department, but many are angry at Assange and his organization.
     [LINK:
     http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical_diary/20101206_geopolitics_continue_despite_wikileaks]

     Immediately following Assange's arrest, WikiLeaks spokesperson Kristinn
     Hrafnsson said that it would not stop the group's operations. Indeed,
     whether Assange remains behind bars or not, it most likely will not stop
     the continued leaks of this large batch of US State Department cables.
      It also will not shut down WikiLeaks, which still maintains its website
     (albeit currently on a Swiss server, after its initial site's were
     deactivated) and the ability to collect information from leakers.  So in
     the short-term, WikiLeaks will continue.  The question remains if
     Assange created a truly sustainable institution-- one where leaders are
     replaceable, members can adapt to changing circumstance, and
     representatives can aid and inspire new leakers.  Will leakers continue
     to go to the, or choose other organizations?

      

     If Assange is extradited to Sweden and tried of one count of unlawful
     coercion, two counts of sexual molestation and one count of rape, the
     question is how much WikiLeaks image will be damaged.  He may try to use
     prison time- especially before trial- to develop his image as a martyr,
     but this can always backfire.  If WikiLeaks, however, is not tied to his
     image, it will be much more sustainable as an organization.  

      

     Western governments also fear whatever is contained in his "insurance"
     file, for which he threatens to release an encryption key if something
     happens to him.  The file was released across the internet and has been
     downloaded by countless number of people.  What it contains is still
     secret, but WikiLeaks may have threatened the US government and others
     with clues to its contents.  WikiLeaks has likely already released its
     most damaging documents in an attempt to get public attention.  This new
     file then probably does not contain higher-level secret information, but
     instead may be full of names.  Those names being sources who will be at
     risk and those of diplomats, military or intelligence officers who could
     lose their jobs or even lives.  These people who could be adversely
     affected by the release of the insurance file also pose another
     conundrum for wikileaks. Exposing them and impacting them in a
     vindictive manner could further tarnish Assange and Wikileaks in the
     eyes of the international public, to include potential financial and
     information contributors.  

      

     WikiLeaks is now facing a conundrum that all new organizations do--the
     ability to maintain and transition leadership through adverse
     circumstances.  Maybe Assange will be released quickly-- STRATFOR cannot
     speak to the veracity of the charges against him-- but if he isn't,
     WikiLeaks survival is brought into question.  But even if WikiLeaks
     disappears, the organizational concept will still continue, and leaks
     along with it.  WikiLeaks has only demonstrated the ability new
     technology has created to transfer such large quantities of documents,
     and there is no reason other organizations will not make use of the same
     technology.  

      

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 16:18:35</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1261332_re-for-edit-assange-arrest-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>writers@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mike.marchio@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1264928</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - MOLDOVA - opinion on Biden's visit
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE: MD101

 ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Washington &amp; Chisinau
 SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Head of Moldovan Lobby in Washington, but lives
 partially in Chisinau &amp; super close to most politicians
 PUBLICATION: yes
 SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
 ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
 DISTRIBUTION: Analysts, eurasia
 SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren/Antonia

 I believe that the visit in Russia is meant for the 'reset relations'
 scheme. The visits in Finland and Moldova are meant to 'ballance' the
 message towards the region (that's what the Americans usually do when
 they have a high profile visit to Moscow: they usually go to Eastern
 Europe, the Balts or Ukraine or Georgia... depending on the situation).
 Honestly, I don't expect something important from the visit in Moldova -
 it's a protocol and PR/image visit.

 It's possible that Transnistria be discussed (considering the European
 initiatives) but we'll not have a break-trough sit. It could be just a
 Chinese drop... but this is also very optimistic.

 If the Moldovans will take seriously all the messages referring to the
 consolidation of non-comunists parties and promoting the reforms in all
 fields, that would be the biggest achievement of the visit - on the
 short term.

 I'll meet a Biden's adviser after the visit and will let you know more.
</description>
    <date>2011-03-08 15:00:04</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-05 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1264928_insight-moldova-opinion-on-biden-s-visit-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ben.preisler@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1265938</id>
    <title>RE: [CT] New Panthers' war on whites
</title>
    <description>   I'm flying Tue morning to Dee-troit to watch the results at Miss Olaylia's
   Soul Food Kitchen and Bar.  Should be a hell of a party.  Or race riot.
    

   Aaric S. Eisenstein

   Stratfor

   SVP Publishing

   700 Lavaca St., Suite 900

   Austin, TX  78701

   512-744-4308

   512-744-4334 fax

    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, October 30, 2008 3:02 PM
   To: 'Aaric Eisenstein'; 'Don Kuykendall'
   Subject: RE: [CT] New Panthers' war on whites
   Jesse Jackson has promised riots if Obama is not elected.  Our country is
   finished.  Good thing I'm old. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Aaric Eisenstein [mailto:eisenstein@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, October 30, 2008 3:00 PM
   To: 'Fred Burton'; 'Don Kuykendall'
   Subject: RE: [CT] New Panthers' war on whites
   Am naming my next child after him.
    

   Aaric S. Eisenstein

   Stratfor

   SVP Publishing

   700 Lavaca St., Suite 900

   Austin, TX  78701

   512-744-4308

   512-744-4334 fax

    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, October 30, 2008 7:21 AM
   To: 'Don Kuykendall'; aaric.eisenstein@stratfor.com
   Subject: FW: [CT] New Panthers' war on whites
   FYI

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: ct-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:ct-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf
   Of scott stewart
   Sent: Thursday, October 30, 2008 7:19 AM
   To: 'CT AOR'
   Subject: [CT] New Panthers' war on whites

 Charming....

 http://www.philly.com/philly/news/33491864.html
 
 Posted on Wed, Oct. 29, 2008
 New Panthers' war on whites
 By DANA DiFILIPPO Philadelphia Daily News
 difilid@phillynews.com 215-854-5934
 
 Some people wear their heart on their sleeve.
 
 Minister King Samir Shabazz wears his on his forehead. Right between the
 eyes.
 
 "If you want to stop the revolution, that's what you got to hit,"
 Shabazz said, pointing to the target tattooed onto his forehead. "I
 fight my oppressor, and I give him the target."
 
 Shabazz is chairman of the New Black Panther Party's Philadelphia
 chapter. In black beret atop dreadlocks and a black military uniform, he
 spends most weekdays near City Hall condemning "crackers" and exhorting
 black passers-by to rise up against their "slavemasters" - and to give
 him $2 for the party's semi-annual newspaper.
 
 He is one of the most recognizable black militants in a city known,
 since the days of MOVE, for its vocal black-extremism community.
 
 The Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC), which monitors hate activity
 globally, listed the New Black Panther Party as among the most active
 and tough-talking of black-separatist groups.
 
 Black Hebrews also have grown increasingly active in recent years,
 according to the SPLC, especially in Philadelphia, where robed street
 preachers shout out their beliefs daily near City Hall, the Convention
 Center, Germantown Avenue and other heavily trafficked areas.
 
 Followers of the movement claim that African-Americans are God's true
 chosen people because they, not the people traditionally known as Jews,
 are the real descendants of the biblical Hebrews.
 
 Their views, while often just as extreme, tend to be couched in
 religious rhetoric about "Edomites" (the descendants of Esau) and such
 terms that barely slow the stride of most passers-by.
 
 But Shabazz is more blunt in his views:
 
 * On whites: "I'm about the total destruction of white people. I'm about
 the total liberation of black people. I hate white people. I hate my
 enemy. . . ."
 
 * On Jews: "I don't care how much they try to promote the Jewish
 Holocaust. The African people have suffered a hell of a cost. . . . "
 
 * On Barack Obama and voting: "He's a puppet on a string. I don't
 support no black man running for white politics. I will not vote for who
 will be the next slavemaster." Besides, he added, Obama is "a Negro who
 doesn't even support reparations for black people in America."
 
 * On white supremacists: "They're sissies; they want to put their
 feelings on a flier. Well, come into the black neighborhood with that
 rhetoric and we will show you what a strong awakened black man looks
 like."
 
 * On the Phillies: "They can kiss my ass. The Phillies are not doing
 nothing for our 'hoods."
 
 Shabazz, who also considers himself a Black Hebrew, said that his
 beliefs are rooted in high school, where lessons about slavery led to an
 "awakening."
 
 He doesn't like to talk about himself. He won't divulge his real name,
 which he shed years ago because it was a "slave name that still had an
 umbilical cord on it."
 
 He lives "wherever black people is, that's where I live."
 
 He's 38 and has children, but he won't say how many or provide any more
 details about his personal life, partly for security reasons but also
 because this reporter is a "cracker."
 
 He listens to "revolutionary, cracker-killing hip-hop" on his headphones
 and says things like: "I'll get black to you on that."
 
 And he says that he never worries what response his violent rhetoric
 might provoke in listeners.
 
 "The only thing the cracker understands is violence," said Shabazz,
 whose face also bears the tattoos "Freedom," "BPG" (Black Power Gang)
 and "NBPP" (New Black Panther Party). "The only thing the cracker
 understands is gunpowder.
 
 "You got to take violence to violence." *
 

    
   Scott Stewart
   STRATFOR
   Office: 814 967 4046
   Cell: 814 573 8297
   scott.stewart@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
    
</description>
    <date>2008-10-30 21:22:46</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-20 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1265938_re-ct-new-panthers-war-on-whites-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1272330</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of these
   in the US?
    What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
   I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
   whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
   because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
   revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of understanding
   of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is expendable to
   cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of coercion.

   Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
   cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of el
   chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication as a
   tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable intelligence,
   the government will use it against the cartels. That's a physical threat,
   if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify that Anonymous can
   not directly effect physical security. Any impact to the cartel in
   revealing information will be from actions of rival cartels or the GoM.
   They may release information on a given politician being linked to the
   cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the politician will feel an impact
   (Just because Anonymous says there is a link, doesn't make it true). It
   would be up to others to take action.

   Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online activity
   (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to conduct significant
   logistics and business online. We don't know how much, but we do know they
   will have some points of operational vulnerability I have heard of cartels
   doing business online, but don't have specific examples which could be
   used in assessing their vulnerability online.

   by "no consequences" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired, arrested
   or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I should say,
   there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out politicians as
   colluding.
   On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

     Karen Hooper
     Latin America Analyst
     o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
     c: 512.750.7234
     STRATFOR
     www.stratfor.com
     On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
     Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing possible
     cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat Anonymous can pose
     to cartels. The video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing
     personal information on cartels as well as states a member had been
     kidnapped. I could not find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of
     the individual being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites
     (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an
     individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the Operation
     Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

     Link: themeData
     Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
     denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed out at
     drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
     criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked individual
     addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the most recent
     video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels
     in Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers, police,
     politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels do they
     specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of these in the
     US?
      What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
     group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
     face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
     mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their
     demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The potential of
     conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents a
     unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out at online
     bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any
     headaches from hackers before. 

     What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
          o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat to
     Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the
     head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using
     publication as a tool to force government action. If you reveal
     actionable intelligence, the government will use it against the cartels.
     That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
          o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online media
          o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out at
     cartels

     While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a threat
          o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess identifiable
     information on cartel members
          o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
     cartels
          o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
     identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in the
     realm of possibilities for
                 Anonymous
                 o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
     illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are
     known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't
     know how much, but we do know they will have some points of operational
     vulnerability

     Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the ultra-violent
     world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result, their understanding of
     cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when
     sitting in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
     retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online assault of
     cartels.
          o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will
     cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are
     forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are often
     victims of extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the
     identity of these individuals will not have a significant impact on
     cartel                   operations. Politicans have been accused of
     working with cartels (Guerrero &amp; Veracruz' governor) before, however
     there has yet to be any consequences from this. by "no consequences"
     what exactly do you mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and
     that happens all the time.
          o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are
     willing to go protect their operations.
             o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
             o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science community
     before, coercing computer science majors into working for them.
             o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
     discovering hackers within Mexico.
     need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply publishing
     tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the same camp as
     the bloggers

      

     On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

       Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there
       are several issues to address and fix here.

       These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
       discussion:

            o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but we
       can't gloss over that fact
            o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference between
       stealing bank records from government computers and overloading
       www.loszetas.com main page.
            o     There's no thought out process of what sort of information
       could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is kept online and
       accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
       identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops, politicians and
       businessmen who need to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
       Think about why the bloggers and media were killed in previous
       instances. Was it because they revealed operational details, because
       they acted as informants, because they exposed links with officials or
       because they somehow sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what
       kind of information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
            o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
       realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of
       damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the
       technical ability by a very small number of its members to infiltrate
       certain networks and databases and steal information. Now what kind of
       information would a cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
       internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could information be found?
       Government databases? Once we know what kind of information is
       accessible, we can also know more about the consequences of
       dissemination.
            o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
       back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done by
       people who may not understand the difference between an anon hacker
       and a blogger.

       On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

         wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

         -------- Original Message --------

          Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
             Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
             From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
         Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
               To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

         you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a lot
         more work

         You need to lay out:

         a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section is
         unclear
         b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
         therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
         c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
         d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone who
         breaches their systems or exposes their connections

         I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
         insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels
         of sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of
         cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason to
         assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
         protected fashion.

         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
         c: 512.750.7234
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

         On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

         Link: themeData

         Trigger

         Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
         Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed out
         at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
         Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released depicting...?
         a person talking? a voice? words on a screen? exactly when?.  With
         the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
         the criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of
         Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
         journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker group
         demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
         consequences. The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal
         cartels and hackers, presents an unprecedented war front for the
         cartels. The vastly different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas
         leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have little
         experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no experience
         with the cartels. I do not believe for a second that the cartels
         have no experience with hackers.

          

         In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
         day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of
         releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up
         front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back.
         Provide enough details so we understand who this guy is and why/how
         he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing
         revealing information on cartel members and operations are true,
         cartels will likely respond with violence against individuals
         revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous
         members?. It also is likely that public disclosure of GOM officials
         who collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving the
         Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this means. You
         mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel
         will be able to retaliate against Anonymous remains unanswered .
         However, cartels will continue their threats against any individual
         using online media WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not
         talking about bloggers here. against the cartels.

          

         The Battle Space

         Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
         realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of
         the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical
         boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in
         cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They are physical people
         tho live in the real world. They have names and addresses - although
         most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power base
         consists of their technical capabilities in hacking. Any information
         connected to the Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers.
         (Identifying the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst of
         Mexico's population could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of
         what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
         Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in revenue,
         but it does not really matter if you don't run operations on the
         web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are also far
         less dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

         Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base
         consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe
         themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the
         internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
         and everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme
         goes, anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web
         of people who identify themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of
         serious IT capability. 

         The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been from
         targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

         The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
         Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
         maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
         commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money and
         issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight. There
         is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity.
         Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue and escalating
         brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing
         different types of threats. Cartels are always suffering at the
         hands of cartel on cartel violence. While battling each other,
         cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels
         wish to avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
         have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
         bloggers in order to cover details of their operations. ok... but
         that's kind of a red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus
         on the possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume
         they have no cyber presence.

          

         Anonymous' Weapons

         Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
         criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
         combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating
         sensitive information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel
         statements via social media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean
         so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
         cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance of a
         targeted information operations campaign by technically elite
         individuals can not be overlooked should not be underestimated.
         Cartels view main stream media outlets and social media blogs as
         such a threat to their operations, that they have continued to
         target journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los
         Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the
         body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce
         cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not
         really addressing the subheading

         As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks
         disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest Anonymous
         is capable of possessing information they threaten to release. By
         releasing identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
         cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those individuals.
         Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive information is limited
         by what is available via the Internet. Government computers
         connected to the Internet should always be considered a possibility
         of an attack. However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the
         US governments computer networks, information available to Mexico's
         intelligence collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you
         trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

          

         Cartel's Defense

                     A counter response to the video? by the cartels has yet
         to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped member by
         Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed
         by hackers so... how has there not been a counter response? also
         this undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is soley
         internet based, and underlines the vulnerabilities of associated
         members. How did they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that
         could very well give you some indication to the technical ability of
         the cartels . As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
         wide web , the cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely
         are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole
         agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume
         (and we have good intel indicating that) they are working on
         disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in
         any region of the world. Personal information including locations is
         only available if a hacker chooses to divulge it or if the subject
         of the attack is savvy enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only
         work for Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
         online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
         employing hackers of their own under their payroll? Stranger things
         have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                     Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
         Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help of
         computer science majors through personal threats has been reported
         in the past where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels
         operate in the world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they
         will likely need the assistance of technical experts to help combat
         any threat by computer hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside
         of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable
         of identifying any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
         enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
         experience and resources than cartels, struggle to find hackers
         through investigations. A) How do you know they are not in Mexico?
         (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not
         all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                     In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
         likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute
         force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within
         Mexico "still"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals
         with alleged connections to hacker communities will likely be
         targeted and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and
         public display of violence will likely continue to be used to scare
         online media into submission i'm not really seeing the online
         media-international hacking group connection here.  The cruel
         manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer hackers
         have unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
         cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to
         be seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of
         the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff and
         simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 18:19:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1272330_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tristan.reed@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1272344</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   Good point. 
   In terrorist terms they are more like grassroots people than AQ core. 
   From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Reply-To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2011 13:11:05 -0500
   To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
   Somehow we have to stop referring to 'anonymous' as a monolith.  They are
   a bunch of different people that essentially get together in an
   online-form of a mob to carry out some action. I'm not sure how to do this
   in writing consistently.  But let's start with shit like 'people joining
   Anonymous chatrooms and claiming to be part of the movement' or something
   like that. 

   Comments in green below.  This is coming together nicely. 

   On 10/24/11 11:19 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of
     these in the US?
      What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
     I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
     whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
     because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
     revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of
     understanding of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is
     expendable to cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of
     coercion.

     Anonymous does not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
     cartels.  mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of el
     chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication as a
     tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable intelligence,
     the government will use it against the cartels. That's a physical
     threat, if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify that
     Anonymous can not directly effect physical security. Any impact to the
     cartel in revealing information will be from actions of rival cartels or
     the GoM. They may release information on a given politician being linked
     to the cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the politician will feel
     an impact (Just because Anonymous says there is a link, doesn't make it
     true). It would be up to others to take action.  I think the way you
     have it worded in the above sentence is good.  Follow with a sentence
     explaining the rest of it, because readers will have the same question
     Karen did.  Something like 'Rather, the threat to cartels would come in
     what information anonymous could expose that is useful to their enemies'

     Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online
     activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to conduct
     significant logistics and business online. We don't know how much, but
     we do know they will have some points of operational vulnerability I
     have heard of cartels doing business online, but don't have specific
     examples which could be used in assessing their vulnerability online.

     by "no consequences" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired,
     arrested or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I
     should say, there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out
     politicians as colluding.
     On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

       Karen Hooper
       Latin America Analyst
       o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
       c: 512.750.7234
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com
       On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
       Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
       possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
       Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by people using the
       banner of Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on
       cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
       find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being
       kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and
       Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting
       flyers ['critical of cartels'?] in Veracruz as part of the Operation
       Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation. [this is good and
       will be enough information to go with, though you'll need a quick
       explanation of what 'operation paperstorm' is.  Adding something in
       the explaining the flyers will work]

       Link: themeData
       Anonymous, a decentralized hacker collective  famous for distributed
       denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government and corporate websites,
       lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
       denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video depicting a
       masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With
       the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
       the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities
       of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who collude with
       criminal cartels do they specify whether or not these are all in
       Mexico? Are some of these in the US?
        What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
       group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
       face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
       was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
       their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
       potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
       presents a unique threat towards TCOs [If TCO= transnational criminal
       organization, it's not really unique.  Many such organizations do
       their crimes online, and have been hacked in response--like the
       nigerian princess scams. I think you should just say it's a unique
       threat to DTOs] . We know of cartels lashing out at online bloggers,
       but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches
       from hackers before. 

       What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
            o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat
       to Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to
       the head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using
       publication as a tool to force government action. If you reveal
       actionable intelligence, the government will use it against the
       cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
            o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
       media
            o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out
       at cartels

       While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
       threat, if it had access to certain types of information:

               -The threat is in the information they can expose that may be
   of use to any cartel enemies.  That could be to the government or other
   cartels or even local citizens (the last one may be a stretch, but i could
   imagine someone discrediting cartel members in the eyes of the public).

            o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims tocut possess
       identifiable information on cartel members 
            o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
       cartels [cut this part here, and make the point at the end of this
       section/paragraph]
            o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
       identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in
       the realm of possibilities for
                   Anonymous
                   o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
       illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are
       known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't
       know how much, but we do know they will have some points of
       operational vulnerability

      -They claim to have information on those that collude with cartels 
   (use the stuff you have above].  Releasing such information could hurt
   cartels' support networks, but most of these people are also easily
   replaceable. 
               -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents have
   access to, and doubt they have such information that provides any sort of
   existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 

       Most Anonymous hackers are likely far removed from the ultra-violent
       world of drug trafficking in Mexico, but it's quite possible that some
       of its members in this campaign are in Mexico and opposed to the
       violence [or something like that.  my limited understanding is there
       are still activist crusader-types in Mexico, yeah?  it seems very
       possible those with a bit of time or computer skills could have joined
       up with anonymous] . As a result, their understanding of cartel
       activities may be limited. Anonymous members in other countries may
       act with confidence when sitting in front of a computer, but this may
       blind them to any possible retribution. They may not even know the
       impact of any online assault of cartels.  [the part below and above is
       written rather normatively.  We need to take that out.  just state the
       facts]
            o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will
       cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are
       forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are often
       victims of extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the
       identity of these individuals will not have a significant impact on
       cartel                   operations. Politicans have been accused of
       working with cartels (Guerrero &amp; Veracruz' governor) before, however
       there has yet to be any consequences from this. by "no consequences"
       what exactly do you mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and
       that happens all the time.
            o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are
       willing to go protect their operations.
               o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
               o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
       community before, coercing computer science majors into working for
       them.
               o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
       discovering hackers within Mexico.
       need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply publishing
       tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the same camp as
       the bloggers  [yes, i think it needs to be clear that their damage
       will be similar to what bloggers or wikileaks can do--limited.  But
       maybe more a danger to themselves, since they are no longer
       challenging governments, but criminal organizations]

        

       On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

         Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there
         are several issues to address and fix here.

         These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
         discussion:

              o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but
         we can't gloss over that fact
              o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference
         between stealing bank records from government computers and
         overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
              o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
         information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
         kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
         talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
         politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
         going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
         killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
         operational details, because they acted as informants, because they
         exposed links with officials or because they somehow sullied the
         cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of information is damaging
         to the cartels themselves?
              o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
         realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of
         damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the
         technical ability by a very small number of its members to
         infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal information. Now
         what kind of information would a cartel keep on a network that is
         connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
         information be found? Government databases? Once we know what kind
         of information is accessible, we can also know more about the
         consequences of dissemination.
              o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
         back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done
         by people who may not understand the difference between an anon
         hacker and a blogger.

         On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

           wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

           -------- Original Message --------

            Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
               Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
               From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
           Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                 To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

           you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a
           lot more work

           You need to lay out:

           a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section
           is unclear
           b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
           therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
           c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
           d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone
           who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

           I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
           insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels
           of sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of
           cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason
           to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
           protected fashion.

           Karen Hooper
           Latin America Analyst
           o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
           c: 512.750.7234
           STRATFOR
           www.stratfor.com
           On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

           On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

           Link: themeData

           Trigger

           Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
           Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed
           out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
           Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released
           depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a screen?
           exactly when?.  With the most recent video release, Anonymous
           makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels. Threats such as
           releasing identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
           politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels.
           The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped
           member otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
           between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
           unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly different
           operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
           Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
           believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
           not believe for a second that the cartels have no experience with
           hackers.

            

           In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as
           a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of
           releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up
           front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit
           back. Provide enough details so we understand who this guy is and
           why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of
           possessing revealing information on cartel members and operations
           are true, cartels will likely respond with violence against
           individuals revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you mean
           Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public disclosure of
           GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take
           action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand
           what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
           effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against Anonymous
           remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue their threats
           against any individual using online media WC.... you mean tools?
           or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here. against the
           cartels.

            

           The Battle Space

           Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
           realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of
           the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical
           boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in
           cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They are physical people
           tho live in the real world. They have names and addresses -
           although most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power
           base consists of their technical capabilities in hacking. Any
           information connected to the Internet is vulnerable to exploits by
           hackers. (Identifying the pc's of individual cartel members in the
           midst of Mexico's population could be quite difficult.  Remember
           that most of what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if
           you are Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in
           revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't run operations
           on the web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are
           also far less dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

           Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base
           consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe
           themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the
           internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
           and everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme
           goes, anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large
           web of people who identify themselves as "anonymous" have any sort
           of serious IT capability. 

           The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been
           from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

           The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
           Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
           maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
           commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money and
           issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight. There
           is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar
           capacity.  Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue
           and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
           experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels are
           always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence. While
           battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement
           Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in the flow of
           drugs and money, cartels have targeted media outlets. Murdering
           journalists and online bloggers in order to cover details of their
           operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this
           discussion. You need to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of
           the cartels. Don't just assume they have no cyber presence.

            

           Anonymous' Weapons

           Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
           criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
           combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating
           sensitive information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel
           statements via social media and defaced websites in Mexico you
           mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their
           video to cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance
           of a targeted information operations campaign by technically elite
           individuals can not be overlooked should not be underestimated.
           Cartels view main stream media outlets and social media blogs as
           such a threat to their operations, that they have continued to
           target journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by
           Los Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on
           the body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
           denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive here,
           and it's not really addressing the subheading

           As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks
           disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest
           Anonymous is capable of possessing information they threaten to
           release. By releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
           Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
           individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
           information is limited by what is available via the Internet.
           Government computers connected to the Internet should always be
           considered a possibility of an attack. However, as with the
           compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer networks,
           information available to Mexico's intelligence collection may not
           be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This isn't
           clear at all

            

           Cartel's Defense

                       A counter response to the video? by the cartels has
           yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped
           member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the
           threat posed by hackers so... how has there not been a counter
           response? also this undermines your statements above about how
           Anonymous is soley internet based, and underlines the
           vulnerabilities of associated members. How did they find teh
           Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well give you some
           indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As Anonymous
           exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the cartels
           will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed for them
           Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies dedicated to
           fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good
           intel indicating that) they are working on disrupting the
           cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in any region
           of the world. Personal information including locations is only
           available if a hacker chooses to divulge it or if the subject of
           the attack is savvy enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only
           work for Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
           online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
           employing hackers of their own under their payroll? Stranger
           things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                       Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
           Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help
           of computer science majors through personal threats has been
           reported in the past where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since
           cartels operate in the world of urban violence and drug
           trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of technical
           experts to help combat any threat by computer hackers.  While
           identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is
           unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers operating
           outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies such as the FBi,
           with far more technical experience and resources than cartels,
           struggle to find hackers through investigations. A) How do you
           know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???)
           B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult
           to track down

                       In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
           likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute
           force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within
           Mexico "still"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?. 
           Individuals with alleged connections to hacker communities will
           likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco
           banners and public display of violence will likely continue to be
           used to scare online media into submission i'm not really seeing
           the online media-international hacking group connection here.  The
           cruel manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer
           hackers have unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether
           the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous
           will remain to be seen until cartels are able to seek out and
           capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the
           collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience
           that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 20:33:26</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1272397</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   Yes, in response to your first question. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Colby Martin" &lt;colby.martin@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: analysts@stratfor.com
   Sent: Monday, October 24, 2011 7:47:49 PM
   Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels

   Sean, just to be clear

   Your point is that Anonymous hasn't mattered?  Is your argument that
   hackers haven't mattered either?  because if Anonymous is a mob of hackers
   as you argue, how haven't they mattered to their targets?  what about all
   the money spent fighting them?  and as Tristan just pointed out - how
   about HBGary Federal?  He said the CEO's SSN and address were posted on
   Twitter.  What about all the sensitive emails that were lost?  We have no
   way of knowing what was in those emails, or how they are being used to
   make money at the expense of HBGary.  I have always agreed that they
   haven't reached a level of threat to the US, but that surely doesn't mean
   they won't.  And there are quite a few countries, organizations, and
   people below that rather high standard who could not withstand an attack,
   including an email purge of personal emails onto the web. 

   On 10/24/11 7:33 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     As far as Aurora, I haven't followed it closely. Did they ever identify
     the attackers or number of attackers? I thought the target set was the
     only thing that led people to believe the Chinese government was
     responsible.

     2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
     responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating cyber
     intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case HUMINT is
     just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT capabilities does not
     indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers. NSA may have there own
     department for tracking hackers but it does not make it SIGINT.

     Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

     Wikipedia provides an indepth explanation on SIGINT . But in short,
     SIGINT is the capability in exploiting signals provided by communication
     devices, and what can be obtained by exploiting the signals. Combining
     computer network operations and SIGINT is innaccurate, because while
     SIGINT may be used with other intelligence disciplines in order to
     identify a hacker, it is not necessary and is no more related than any
     other intel discipline. SIGINT could help you identify a computer
     devices (not the operator) emitting a signal (wifi), and cryptanalysis,
     which is also separate from SIGINT but often used in conjunction, could
     help in providing methods to decrypt messages over a network, but SIGINT
     wouldn't obtain those messages.

     In order to exploit computer network operations, the operators involved
     are specifically trained in computer science disciplines and
     technologies tailored specifically for computer activity.

     NSA also is the primary agency for cryptanalysis. Because of
     technological demands of SIGINT and cryptanalysis, NSA has enormous
     resources in R&amp;D, so I can see why the USG would move some CNO to NSA.
     But their SIGINT capabilities are not indicators of CNO capabilities.

     Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary labor
     for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are discussing
     operations on the scale of causing physical damage to extremely
     sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of a cyber attack that
     matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not mattered.  You chose the most
     prolific example of a cyber attack (which the whole operation consisted
     mainly outside of the cyber attack itself). Anything that falls short of
     this doesn't matter? Define what matters. None of anonymous' attacks
     have physically damaged secret Iranian nuclear facilities, but I think
     you are downplaying too much the significance of exposing corporate
     secrets, halting businesses' revenues, and embarrassing State actors by
     defacing their websites.

     On 10/24/11 5:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       On 10/24/11 5:07 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

         On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already The USG
           arrested 10 Russian spies last year, are you willing to say
           foreign intel is not capable of conducting espionage undetected?
           No, of course not.  But I also would not argue that the SVR is so
           good to be immune to detection, as you are arguing with hackers. 
           I'm saying they are more detectable than you think.  There is no
           such thing as truly anonymous.  Everythign leaves a trail.  Will
           that trail in every instance lead to a single individual? no.  but
           it can lead to a place, an organization, and often, an
           individual. 

           2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
           responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating
           cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this
           case HUMINT is just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT
           capabilities does not indicate its capabilities in tracking
           hackers. NSA may have there own department for tracking hackers
           but it does not make it SIGINT.

           Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

           The question is if the attack is high priority enough.  Many
           people assume there is no attribution because there is no
           response, but I don't think that is accurate.  Many people say
           this, because no attribution is one reason for no response.  Yes,
           they do, and if they think that is the primary reason for lack of
           response, then I think they are wrong. 

           3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new
           laptop and start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack
           involves much more than a recently bought laptop.  In the same way
           there is an attack cycle for a terrorist attack or crime, there is
           one for a cyber attack.  A very simple attack may be as hard to
           trace as a nearly-random mugging in the dark in a neighborhood
           with much more serious crime and no CCTV cameras.  A more
           complicated attack, however, involves pre-operational
           surveillance, developing exploits, developing programs and code,
           gaining access, exploiting that, and carrying out an attack. 
           Discovering exploits and writing code can be done entirely
           offline, out of sight of law enforcement or intel agencies.
           Pre-operational surveillance and gaining access (the point of the
           exploit you write offline) would fit in my example. The point is,
           if you don't link your computer to identifiable information, you
           remain anonymous. Just like people use certain methods to build
           IEDs, people use certain mehtods to design programs and code for
           cyber attacks.  Over time, those methods become identifiable and
           more and more attributable. This is, for example, how AURORA is
           linked back to the Chinese.  and very specific Chinese, I may add.
           Being connected or unconnected doesn't matter, eventually you have
           to use what you develop, or copy from someone, and all of those
           things can be analyzed.   And that takes time, giving more time
           for your exposure Exposure comes from network activity with the
           target, a lot of the pre-operational phase of an attack can occur
           without network activity. Look at everything that went into
           Stuxnet as a great example, that couldn't be done with one person
           with a new laptop. Writing the code and hacking was just a small
           part of necessary labor for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't
           think we are discussing operations on the scale of causing
           physical damage to extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is
           an example of a cyber attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so
           far has not mattered.   All of this activity provides activity and
           evidence which helps for attribution.  Of course it is always
           possible to develop an attack, just like any other operation, that
           even the best law enforcement and national intelligence agencies
           have trouble or cannot attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that
           it's very difficult for someone to successfully use Anonymous as a
           cover and have NSA, GHQ, MID, Aman, etc, be unable to attribute
           it.  How do you know if NSA or GHQ is effective in identifying
           hackers?I don't, but I'm confident they are far better than you
           are allowing for.    They may not choose to cover it if it is
           small scale crime, however. 
           On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored
             cyber warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing
             that, since you can conduct a cyber attack without associating
             with a hacker group and still deny / cover actions on behalf of
             the State. An individual attacking US computer assets from
             China, may be working by himself or on behalf of the Chinese
             government, but unless the US has other intel on the Chinese
             government's cyber warfare activities in order to corroborate
             there is little capability to distinguish.

             It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
             operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets
             from SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual
             responsible for hacking State run servers. In the past, I have
             turned to SIGINT organizations for collections on computer
             related material, but this was due to the US being behind in
             cyber warfare, and not knowing where to assign responsibility.
             However, this has changed dramatically in the last couple of
             years.

             Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As
             an extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go
             to a Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the
             online activity to something revealing (accessing personal email
             accounts, tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop,
             etc..), and begin hacking government email accounts then never
             use the laptop again. Unless LEA could get an accurate
             description of my appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible
             security cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

             Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to
             these enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied
             to specific computer-related activities because of the
             difficulty in identifying individuals.

             I think the most likely way for a "Anonymous cover" to be blown,
             would be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a
             common participant in "Anonymous" activities, was working for a
             State? Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that
             State agent organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter
             buddies, what signs could a LEA look for to distinguish?

             On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

               In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a
               bit)

               1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything
               actually harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't,
               but i'm very doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first
               real case where they could do some minor damage--to individual
               people, not not to an organization or anything that would come
               as a serious or strategic threat. 

               2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is
               actually pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as
               a cover, but that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could
               probably still be attributed if important enough to those
               agencies.  The recent attack on Sony actually brings this
               issue up- Whoever is calling themselves anonymous denies they
               did it.  And keep in mind how much they have claimed an
               publicized attacks in the past, even before they were carried
               out.  The attack on the Playstation Network was more
               sophisticated than anonymous' usual work (though potentially
               coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that distracted
               Sony's IT security).  But whoever did it, again, no real
               damage came of it.  Congress is holding hearings over data
               security, but this is no different than the OC groups stealing
               your credit card information.  LE will go after them, have
               some success, but the threat is not that large. 
               On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

                 I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to
                 have a broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no
                 nothing, or almost nothing about what this group is and the
                 threat it poses. Reviewing their list of attacks
                 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in
                 most of the cases, they are the a**gooda** guys, sort of a
                 Robin Hood of the internet . The interesting thing when it
                 comes to their interactions with the cartels is the dubious
                 role they play: at the same time they can be fighting crime
                 by revealing cartel members/supporters, but they can also
                 put lives in risk.

                 However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
                 Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth,
                 can conduct a cyber attack under a**Anonymousa** is
                 worrisome.
                 (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

                 If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
                 websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to
                 know more about these guys. Who they are? What are they
                 interested in? How they operate? Who they have targeted so
                 far? How can I defend myself from them? In what countries
                 are they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use
                 them to achieve any particular goal?

                 On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                   nice.  i still think the central focus, and what
                   everything else can build off of, is that Anonymous
                   doesn't know the threat they pose to innocent people
                   caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing on
                   journalists or taxi drivers they show little understanding
                   of the situation.  This has long term implications in not
                   just Mexico.  They don't consider the consequences of
                   their actions and they act without understanding the
                   environment.  It was the same when they released
                   information on the Sony Playstation network to protest
                   Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

                   On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                     Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of
                     discussing possible cartel responses, the focus is on
                     what type of threat Anonymous can pose to cartels. The
                     video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing
                     personal information on cartels as well as states a
                     member had been kidnapped. I could not find any sources
                     outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being
                     kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous
                     Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be
                     an individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the
                     Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is
                     speculation.

                     Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
                     distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on
                     government websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the
                     Internet with a statements denouncing Mexicoa**s
                     criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked
                     individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October
                     10? With the most recent video release, Anonymous makes
                     bold threats towards the criminal cartels in Mexico.
                     Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers,
                     police, politicians, and journalists who collude with
                     criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
                     release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
                     consequences. In the Anonymousa** video, this coming
                     November 5th was mentioned as a day cartels could expect
                     Anonymousa** reaction if their demands of releasing a
                     kidnapped member are not met. The potential of conflict
                     between Mexicoa**s criminal cartels and hackers,
                     presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of
                     cartels lashing out at online bloggers, but I havena**t
                     seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches
                     from hackers before. 

                     What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                         a*-c-    Anonymous would not pose a direct physical
                     security threat to Mexican cartels.
                         a*-c-    Anonymous' power base is the ability to
                     exploit online media
                         a*-c-    Anonymous hackers do not have to be in
                     Mexico to lash out at cartels

                     While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to
                     pose a threat
                         a*-c-    It is unknown if Anonymousa**s claims to
                     possess identifiable information on cartel members
                         a*-c-    It is unknown what information Anonymous
                     could acquire on cartels
                         a*-c-    Bank accounts, any online transactions or
                     communications, identifiable information on cartels
                     members have to be considered in the realm of
                     possibilities for
                                 Anonymous
                                 o    Anonymous has demonstrated ita**s
                     ability to reveal illicit online activity (child
                     pornography rings)

                     Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
                     ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
                     result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
                     limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting
                     in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any
                     possible retribution. They may not even know the impact
                     of any online assault of cartels.
                         a*-c-    Revealing information on taxi drivers and
                     journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not
                     understand some of these individuals are forced to
                     collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are
                     often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
                     halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals
                     will not have a significant impact on cartel            
                           operations. Politicans have been accused of
                     working with cartels (Guerrero &amp; Veracruz' governor)
                     before, however there has yet to be any consequences
                     from this.
                         a*-c-    Anonymous hackers may not understand the
                     extent cartels are willing to go protect their
                     operations.
                             o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                             o    Cartels have reached out to the computer
                     science community before, coercing computer science
                     majors into working for them.
                             o    This provides the cartels with the
                     possibility of discovering hackers within Mexico.

                      

                     On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                       Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the
                       idea but there are several issues to address and fix
                       here.

                       These are the bullets of my main analytical concern
                       with the discussion:

                           a*-c-    we don't know who got kidnapped or why.
                       that's fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                           a*-c-    "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a
                       difference between stealing bank records from
                       government computers and overloading www.loszetas.com
                       main page.
                           a*-c-    There's no thought out process of what
                       sort of information could anon have on the cartels.
                       What kind of info is kept online and accessible to
                       potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
                       identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
                       politicians and businessmen who need to worry about
                       what anon is going to be saying. Think about why the
                       bloggers and media were killed in previous instances.
                       Was it because they revealed operational details,
                       because they acted as informants, because they exposed
                       links with officials or because they somehow sullied
                       the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
                       information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                           a*-c-    Once you identify this info - think about
                       if anon can realistically access it and disseminate it
                       so it causes a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have
                       any intelligence capacity except for the technical
                       ability by a very small number of its members to
                       infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
                       information. Now what kind of information would a
                       cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
                       internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
                       information be found? Government databases? Once we
                       know what kind of information is accessible, we can
                       also know more about the consequences of
                       dissemination.
                           a*-c-    What's the IT capacity of a cartel?
                       Sufficient to trace back attacks? If it's not, there
                       risks to be a lot of killings done by people who may
                       not understand the difference between an anon hacker
                       and a blogger.

                       On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                         wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                         -------- Original Message --------

                          Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                             Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                             From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
                         Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                               To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

                         you've got some of the issues here, but this is
                         going to need a lot more work

                         You need to lay out:

                         a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your
                         trigger section is unclear
                         b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence
                         is, and therefore their vulnerabilities and
                         capabilities
                         c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high
                         security anything
                         d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to
                         kill anyone who breaches their systems or exposes
                         their connections

                         I also just want to point out that we have
                         reasonable reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very
                         least has some significant levels of sophistication
                         in their online presence, to include the use of
                         cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
                         is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also
                         conduct business online, in a protected fashion.

                         Karen Hooper
                         Latin America Analyst
                         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                         c: 512.750.7234
                         STRATFOR
                         www.stratfor.com
                         On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                         On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                         --
                         Sean Noonan
                         Tactical Analyst
                         Office: +1 512-279-9479
                         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
                         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
                         www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-25 03:18:15</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1272397_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1273397</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   if anonymous outs taxi cab drivers working with Zeta, they are dead.  that
   is both simple and devastating.  If they release email accounts of GOM
   folks, and there are cartel members in that address book that would be
   devastating.  I think our definitions of devastating are different.  I
   agree the ability of these folks to bring down governments is minimal, but
   I am willing to bet the next deep throat scenario will come via a hacker
   and information they are able to steal. 

   On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already

     2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  The question is if the attack is high
     priority enough.  Many people assume there is no attribution because
     there is no response, but I don't think that is accurate. 
     has NSA told you otherwise?  i am unclear, are you saying the entire
     darknet is mapped, or could be mapped, only it isn't because the NSA
     doesn't care or doens't share? 
     3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new laptop and
     start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack involves much more than
     a recently bought laptop.  In the same way there is an attack cycle for
     a terrorist attack or crime, there is one for a cyber attack.  A very
     simple attack may be as hard to trace as a nearly-random mugging in the
     dark in a neighborhood with much more serious crime and no CCTV cameras.
     so simple=low damage, and complicated = more damage?  if you hacked
     Calderon's blackberry and found out who his contacts were, and one of
     them was Chapo's sister, it would be simple and devastating.  A more
     complicated attack, however, involves pre-operational surveillance,
     developing exploits, developing programs and code, gaining access,
     exploiting that, and carrying out an attack.  And that takes time,
     giving more time for your exposure. Look at everything that went into
     Stuxnet as a great example, that couldn't be done with one person with a
     new laptop.  All of this activity provides activity and evidence which
     helps for attribution.  Of course it is always possible to develop an
     attack, just like any other operation, that even the best law
     enforcement and national intelligence agencies have trouble or cannot
     attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that it's very difficult for
     someone to successfully use Anonymous as a cover and have NSA, GHQ, MID,
     Aman, etc, be unable to attribute it.  They may not choose to cover it
     if it is small scale crime, however. 
     On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored cyber
       warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing that, since
       you can conduct a cyber attack without associating with a hacker group
       and still deny / cover actions on behalf of the State. An individual
       attacking US computer assets from China, may be working by himself or
       on behalf of the Chinese government, but unless the US has other intel
       on the Chinese government's cyber warfare activities in order to
       corroborate there is little capability to distinguish.

       It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
       operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets from
       SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual responsible for
       hacking State run servers. In the past, I have turned to SIGINT
       organizations for collections on computer related material, but this
       was due to the US being behind in cyber warfare, and not knowing where
       to assign responsibility. However, this has changed dramatically in
       the last couple of years.

       Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As an
       extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go to a
       Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the online
       activity to something revealing (accessing personal email accounts,
       tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop, etc..), and
       begin hacking government email accounts then never use the laptop
       again. Unless LEA could get an accurate description of my appearance
       from Starbuck's patrons or possible security cameras, I can not think
       of way to identify me.

       Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to these
       enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied to specific
       computer-related activities because of the difficulty in identifying
       individuals.

       I think the most likely way for a "Anonymous cover" to be blown, would
       be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a common
       participant in "Anonymous" activities, was working for a State?
       Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that State agent
       organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter buddies, what signs
       could a LEA look for to distinguish?

       On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a bit)

         1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything actually
         harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't, but i'm very
         doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first real case where
         they could do some minor damage--to individual people, not not to an
         organization or anything that would come as a serious or strategic
         threat. 

         2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is actually
         pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as a cover, but
         that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could probably still be
         attributed if important enough to those agencies.  The recent attack
         on Sony actually brings this issue up- Whoever is calling themselves
         anonymous denies they did it.  And keep in mind how much they have
         claimed an publicized attacks in the past, even before they were
         carried out.  The attack on the Playstation Network was more
         sophisticated than anonymous' usual work (though potentially
         coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that distracted Sony's IT
         security).  But whoever did it, again, no real damage came of it. 
         Congress is holding hearings over data security, but this is no
         different than the OC groups stealing your credit card information. 
         LE will go after them, have some success, but the threat is not that
         large. 
         On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

           Link: themeData

           I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to have a
           broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no nothing, or
           almost nothing about what this group is and the threat it poses.
           Reviewing their list of attacks
           (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most of
           the cases, they are the "good" guys, sort of a Robin Hood of the
           internet . The interesting thing when it comes to their
           interactions with the cartels is the dubious role they play: at
           the same time they can be fighting crime by revealing cartel
           members/supporters, but they can also put lives in risk.

           However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
           Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can
           conduct a cyber attack under "Anonymous" is worrisome.
           (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

           If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
           websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to know
           more about these guys. Who they are? What are they interested in?
           How they operate? Who they have targeted so far? How can I defend
           myself from them? In what countries are they active? Should I
           worry about them at all? Can I use them to achieve any particular
           goal?

           On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

             nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else
             can build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they
             pose to innocent people caught up in the terror that is Mexico. 
             By focusing on journalists or taxi drivers they show little
             understanding of the situation.  This has long term implications
             in not just Mexico.  They don't consider the consequences of
             their actions and they act without understanding the
             environment.  It was the same when they released information on
             the Sony Playstation network to protest Sony.  They hurt
             innocent people to prove a point. 

             On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

               Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
               possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
               Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by
               Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on cartels
               as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
               find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the
               individual being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites
               (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it
               may be an individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the
               Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

               Link: themeData
               Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
               distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government
               websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
               statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a
               video depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug
               cartels on October 10? With the most recent video release,
               Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels in
               Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers,
               police, politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal
               cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow
               kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. In the
               Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
               day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands
               of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The potential of
               conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
               presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels
               lashing out at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any
               reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers
               before. 

               What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                    o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
               threat to Mexican cartels.
                    o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit
               online media
                    o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to
               lash out at cartels

               While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose
               a threat
                    o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
               identifiable information on cartel members
                    o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could
               acquire on cartels
                    o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
               communications, identifiable information on cartels members
               have to be considered in the realm of possibilities for
                           Anonymous
                           o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to
               reveal illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

               Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
               ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
               result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
               limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting in
               front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
               retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online
               assault of cartels.
                    o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
               journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some
               of these individuals are forced to collude with cartels.    
                         Taxi drivers are often victims of extortion or
               coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the identity of these
               individuals will not have a significant impact on cartel    
                             operations. Politicans have been accused of
               working with cartels (Guerrero &amp; Veracruz' governor) before,
               however there has yet to be any consequences from this.
                    o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent
               cartels are willing to go protect their operations.
                       o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                       o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
               community before, coercing computer science majors into
               working for them.
                       o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
               discovering hackers within Mexico.

                

               On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                 Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea
                 but there are several issues to address and fix here.

                 These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
                 discussion:

                      o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's
                 fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                      o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a
                 difference between stealing bank records from government
                 computers and overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                      o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
                 information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of
                 info is kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You
                 seem to be talking about identities, whose? If anything it's
                 dirty cops, politicians and businessmen who need to worry
                 about what anon is going to be saying. Think about why the
                 bloggers and media were killed in previous instances. Was it
                 because they revealed operational details, because they
                 acted as informants, because they exposed links with
                 officials or because they somehow sullied the cartel's
                 reputation? In short, what kind of information is damaging
                 to the cartels themselves?
                      o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon
                 can realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes
                 a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence
                 capacity except for the technical ability by a very small
                 number of its members to infiltrate certain networks and
                 databases and steal information. Now what kind of
                 information would a cartel keep on a network that is
                 connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else
                 could information be found? Government databases? Once we
                 know what kind of information is accessible, we can also
                 know more about the consequences of dissemination.
                      o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to
                 trace back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of
                 killings done by people who may not understand the
                 difference between an anon hacker and a blogger.

                 On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                   wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                   -------- Original Message --------

                    Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                       Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                       From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
                   Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                         To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

                   you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to
                   need a lot more work

                   You need to lay out:

                   a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger
                   section is unclear
                   b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is,
                   and therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
                   c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
                   anything
                   d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill
                   anyone who breaches their systems or exposes their
                   connections

                   I also just want to point out that we have reasonable
                   reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some
                   significant levels of sophistication in their online
                   presence, to include the use of cyber currencies and
                   significant IT capacity. There is no reason to assume that
                   Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
                   protected fashion.

                   Karen Hooper
                   Latin America Analyst
                   o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                   c: 512.750.7234
                   STRATFOR
                   www.stratfor.com
                   On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                   On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                   Link: themeData

                   Trigger

                   Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
                   Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?,
                   lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
                   statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including
                   a video released depicting...? a person talking? a voice?
                   words on a screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent
                   video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                   criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of
                   Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
                   journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker
                   group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member
                   otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
                   between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
                   unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly
                   different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a
                   conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have little
                   experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no
                   experience with the cartels. I do not believe for a second
                   that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                    

                   In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                   mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                   reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped member
                   this should be mentioned right up front. Cartels have a
                   member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back. Provide
                   enough details so we understand who this guy is and
                   why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims
                   of possessing revealing information on cartel members and
                   operations are true, cartels will likely respond with
                   violence against individuals revealed as opposing cartel
                   members huh? you mean Anonymous members?. It also is
                   likely that public disclosure of GOM officials who collude
                   with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving the
                   Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this
                   means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
                   effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against
                   Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will
                   continue their threats against any individual using online
                   media WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking
                   about bloggers here. against the cartels.

                    

                   The Battle Space

                   Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two
                   separate realities from each other. Anonymous operates
                   solely in sphere of the computer networks. Anonymous does
                   not experience geographical boundaries. All personalities
                   within Anonymous, exist solely in cyber space.  (That is
                   not entirely true. They are physical people tho live in
                   the real world. They have names and addresses - although
                   most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power
                   base consists of their technical capabilities in hacking.
                   Any information connected to the Internet is vulnerable to
                   exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of individual
                   cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population could
                   be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
                   has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or
                   a big company with a website that brings in revenue, but
                   it does not really matter if you don't run operations on
                   the web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They
                   are also far less dependent on the web than the
                   jihadists.)

                   Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's
                   power base consists of the perceived anonymity that its
                   members believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by
                   operating through the internet. This gives an opening for
                   people disgruntled by anything and everything to practice
                   general dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity +
                   audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web of
                   people who identify themselves as "anonymous" have any
                   sort of serious IT capability. 

                   The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has
                   been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

                   The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in
                   US and Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always
                   looking to maximize profits and expand. But they are
                   bricks and mortar commerce. Yes..... but they use the
                   internet to launder money and issue commands. We know that
                   Sinaloa does that from insight. There is no reason to
                   assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity. 
                   Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue and
                   escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
                   experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels
                   are always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel
                   violence. While battling each other, cartels still face
                   arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to
                   avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money,
                   cartels have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists
                   and online bloggers in order to cover details of their
                   operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this
                   discussion. You need to focus on the possible
                   vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
                   have no cyber presence.

                    

                   Anonymous' Weapons

                   Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions
                   against criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous'
                   only ability to combat cartels lay in information
                   operations, mainly disseminating sensitive information on
                   cartels and propagating anti-cartel statements via social
                   media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean so far and
                   that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
                   cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance of
                   a targeted information operations campaign by technically
                   elite individuals can not be overlooked should not be
                   underestimated. Cartels view main stream media outlets and
                   social media blogs as such a threat to their operations,
                   that they have continued to target journalists and
                   bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was
                   placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the
                   body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
                   denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive
                   here, and it's not really addressing the subheading

                   As stated earlier, any information connected to the
                   internet risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample
                   reason to suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing
                   information they threaten to release. By releasing
                   identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
                   cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
                   individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
                   information is limited by what is available via the
                   Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
                   should always be considered a possibility of an attack.
                   However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the US
                   governments computer networks, information available to
                   Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy to
                   acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This isn't
                   clear at all

                    

                   Cartel's Defense

                               A counter response to the video? by the
                   cartels has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous'
                   claims of a kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los
                   Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by hackers
                   so... how has there not been a counter response? also this
                   undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is
                   soley internet based, and underlines the vulnerabilities
                   of associated members. How did they find teh Anonymous
                   member? The answer to that could very well give you some
                   indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
                   Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web
                   , the cartels will face a number of challenges which
                   rarely are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG
                   has whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in
                   cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good intel
                   indicating that) they are working on disrupting the
                   cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in any
                   region of the world. Personal information including
                   locations is only available if a hacker chooses to divulge
                   it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
                   figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous.
                   Cartels are only capable of dealing with their online
                   enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
                   employing hackers of their own under their payroll?
                   Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                               Cartels have been known to coerce the services
                   of Mexican citizens with a technical background.
                   Recruiting the help of computer science majors through
                   personal threats has been reported in the past where? What
                   cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels operate in the
                   world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they will
                   likely need the assistance of technical experts to help
                   combat any threat by computer hackers.  While identifying
                   bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is
                   unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
                   operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies
                   such as the FBi, with far more technical experience and
                   resources than cartels, struggle to find hackers through
                   investigations. A) How do you know they are not in Mexico?
                   (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume
                   that not all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                               In order to compete with an online foe,
                   cartels will likely continue counter tactics they are most
                   familiar with, brute force. Cartels are still capable of
                   their HUMINT operations within Mexico "still"? why would
                   we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged
                   connections to hacker communities will likely be targeted
                   and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and
                   public display of violence will likely continue to be used
                   to scare online media into submission i'm not really
                   seeing the online media-international hacking group
                   connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
                   inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
                   encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
                   cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will
                   remain to be seen until cartels are able to seek out and
                   capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could
                   call the collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off
                   any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 22:29:35</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1273397_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>colby.martin@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1273433</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   As far as Aurora, I haven't followed it closely. Did they ever identify
   the attackers or number of attackers? I thought the target set was the
   only thing that led people to believe the Chinese government was
   responsible.

   2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
   responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating cyber
   intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case HUMINT is
   just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT capabilities does not
   indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers. NSA may have there own
   department for tracking hackers but it does not make it SIGINT.

   Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

   Wikipedia provides an indepth explanation on SIGINT . But in short, SIGINT
   is the capability in exploiting signals provided by communication devices,
   and what can be obtained by exploiting the signals. Combining computer
   network operations and SIGINT is innaccurate, because while SIGINT may be
   used with other intelligence disciplines in order to identify a hacker, it
   is not necessary and is no more related than any other intel discipline.
   SIGINT could help you identify a computer devices (not the operator)
   emitting a signal (wifi), and cryptanalysis, which is also separate from
   SIGINT but often used in conjunction, could help in providing methods to
   decrypt messages over a network, but SIGINT wouldn't obtain those
   messages.

   In order to exploit computer network operations, the operators involved
   are specifically trained in computer science disciplines and technologies
   tailored specifically for computer activity.

   NSA also is the primary agency for cryptanalysis. Because of technological
   demands of SIGINT and cryptanalysis, NSA has enormous resources in R&amp;D, so
   I can see why the USG would move some CNO to NSA. But their SIGINT
   capabilities are not indicators of CNO capabilities.

   Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary labor for
   the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are discussing operations on
   the scale of causing physical damage to extremely sensitive equipment .
   Well, this is an example of a cyber attack that matters, whereeas
   Anonymous so far has not mattered.  You chose the most prolific example of
   a cyber attack (which the whole operation consisted mainly outside of the
   cyber attack itself). Anything that falls short of this doesn't matter?
   Define what matters. None of anonymous' attacks have physically damaged
   secret Iranian nuclear facilities, but I think you are downplaying too
   much the significance of exposing corporate secrets, halting businesses'
   revenues, and embarrassing State actors by defacing their websites.

   On 10/24/11 5:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     On 10/24/11 5:07 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already The USG
         arrested 10 Russian spies last year, are you willing to say foreign
         intel is not capable of conducting espionage undetected? No, of
         course not.  But I also would not argue that the SVR is so good to
         be immune to detection, as you are arguing with hackers.  I'm saying
         they are more detectable than you think.  There is no such thing as
         truly anonymous.  Everythign leaves a trail.  Will that trail in
         every instance lead to a single individual? no.  but it can lead to
         a place, an organization, and often, an individual. 

         2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
         responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating
         cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case
         HUMINT is just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT
         capabilities does not indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers.
         NSA may have there own department for tracking hackers but it does
         not make it SIGINT.

         Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

         The question is if the attack is high priority enough.  Many people
         assume there is no attribution because there is no response, but I
         don't think that is accurate.  Many people say this, because no
         attribution is one reason for no response.  Yes, they do, and if
         they think that is the primary reason for lack of response, then I
         think they are wrong. 

         3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new laptop
         and start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack involves much
         more than a recently bought laptop.  In the same way there is an
         attack cycle for a terrorist attack or crime, there is one for a
         cyber attack.  A very simple attack may be as hard to trace as a
         nearly-random mugging in the dark in a neighborhood with much more
         serious crime and no CCTV cameras.  A more complicated attack,
         however, involves pre-operational surveillance, developing exploits,
         developing programs and code, gaining access, exploiting that, and
         carrying out an attack.  Discovering exploits and writing code can
         be done entirely offline, out of sight of law enforcement or intel
         agencies. Pre-operational surveillance and gaining access (the point
         of the exploit you write offline) would fit in my example. The point
         is, if you don't link your computer to identifiable information, you
         remain anonymous. Just like people use certain methods to build
         IEDs, people use certain mehtods to design programs and code for
         cyber attacks.  Over time, those methods become identifiable and
         more and more attributable. This is, for example, how AURORA is
         linked back to the Chinese.  and very specific Chinese, I may add.
         Being connected or unconnected doesn't matter, eventually you have
         to use what you develop, or copy from someone, and all of those
         things can be analyzed.   And that takes time, giving more time for
         your exposure Exposure comes from network activity with the target,
         a lot of the pre-operational phase of an attack can occur without
         network activity. Look at everything that went into Stuxnet as a
         great example, that couldn't be done with one person with a new
         laptop. Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of
         necessary labor for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are
         discussing operations on the scale of causing physical damage to
         extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of a cyber
         attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not mattered.  
         All of this activity provides activity and evidence which helps for
         attribution.  Of course it is always possible to develop an attack,
         just like any other operation, that even the best law enforcement
         and national intelligence agencies have trouble or cannot
         attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that it's very difficult for
         someone to successfully use Anonymous as a cover and have NSA, GHQ,
         MID, Aman, etc, be unable to attribute it.  How do you know if NSA
         or GHQ is effective in identifying hackers?I don't, but I'm
         confident they are far better than you are allowing for.    They may
         not choose to cover it if it is small scale crime, however. 
         On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

           I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored
           cyber warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing
           that, since you can conduct a cyber attack without associating
           with a hacker group and still deny / cover actions on behalf of
           the State. An individual attacking US computer assets from China,
           may be working by himself or on behalf of the Chinese government,
           but unless the US has other intel on the Chinese government's
           cyber warfare activities in order to corroborate there is little
           capability to distinguish.

           It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
           operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets from
           SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual responsible
           for hacking State run servers. In the past, I have turned to
           SIGINT organizations for collections on computer related material,
           but this was due to the US being behind in cyber warfare, and not
           knowing where to assign responsibility. However, this has changed
           dramatically in the last couple of years.

           Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As an
           extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go to a
           Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the online
           activity to something revealing (accessing personal email
           accounts, tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop,
           etc..), and begin hacking government email accounts then never use
           the laptop again. Unless LEA could get an accurate description of
           my appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible security
           cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

           Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to
           these enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied to
           specific computer-related activities because of the difficulty in
           identifying individuals.

           I think the most likely way for a "Anonymous cover" to be blown,
           would be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a common
           participant in "Anonymous" activities, was working for a State?
           Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that State
           agent organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter buddies, what
           signs could a LEA look for to distinguish?

           On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

             In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a
             bit)

             1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything
             actually harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't, but
             i'm very doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first real
             case where they could do some minor damage--to individual
             people, not not to an organization or anything that would come
             as a serious or strategic threat. 

             2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is actually
             pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as a cover,
             but that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could probably
             still be attributed if important enough to those agencies.  The
             recent attack on Sony actually brings this issue up- Whoever is
             calling themselves anonymous denies they did it.  And keep in
             mind how much they have claimed an publicized attacks in the
             past, even before they were carried out.  The attack on the
             Playstation Network was more sophisticated than anonymous' usual
             work (though potentially coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS
             attacks that distracted Sony's IT security).  But whoever did
             it, again, no real damage came of it.  Congress is holding
             hearings over data security, but this is no different than the
             OC groups stealing your credit card information.  LE will go
             after them, have some success, but the threat is not that
             large. 
             On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

               Link: themeData

               I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to
               have a broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no
               nothing, or almost nothing about what this group is and the
               threat it poses. Reviewing their list of attacks
               (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most
               of the cases, they are the "good" guys, sort of a Robin Hood
               of the internet . The interesting thing when it comes to their
               interactions with the cartels is the dubious role they play:
               at the same time they can be fighting crime by revealing
               cartel members/supporters, but they can also put lives in
               risk.

               However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
               Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can
               conduct a cyber attack under "Anonymous" is worrisome.
               (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

               If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
               websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to
               know more about these guys. Who they are? What are they
               interested in? How they operate? Who they have targeted so
               far? How can I defend myself from them? In what countries are
               they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use them
               to achieve any particular goal?

               On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                 nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything
                 else can build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the
                 threat they pose to innocent people caught up in the terror
                 that is Mexico.  By focusing on journalists or taxi drivers
                 they show little understanding of the situation.  This has
                 long term implications in not just Mexico.  They don't
                 consider the consequences of their actions and they act
                 without understanding the environment.  It was the same when
                 they released information on the Sony Playstation network to
                 protest Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

                 On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                   Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of
                   discussing possible cartel responses, the focus is on what
                   type of threat Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video
                   released by Anonymous, threatens revealing personal
                   information on cartels as well as states a member had been
                   kidnapped. I could not find any sources outside of
                   Anonymous' claims of the individual being kidnapped.
                   According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and
                   Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual
                   posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the Operation
                   Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

                   Link: themeData
                   Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
                   distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government
                   websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with
                   a statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels,
                   including a video depicting a masked individual addressing
                   Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the most recent
                   video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                   criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing
                   identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
                   journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker
                   group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member
                   otherwise face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this
                   coming November 5th was mentioned as a day cartels could
                   expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of releasing a
                   kidnapped member are not met. The potential of conflict
                   between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents a
                   unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out
                   at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on
                   cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

                   What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                        o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical
                   security threat to Mexican cartels.
                        o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit
                   online media
                        o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico
                   to lash out at cartels

                   While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to
                   pose a threat
                        o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
                   identifiable information on cartel members
                        o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could
                   acquire on cartels
                        o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
                   communications, identifiable information on cartels
                   members have to be considered in the realm of
                   possibilities for
                               Anonymous
                               o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability
                   to reveal illicit online activity (child pornography
                   rings)

                   Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
                   ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
                   result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
                   limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting in
                   front of a computer, but this may blind them to any
                   possible retribution. They may not even know the impact of
                   any online assault of cartels.
                        o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
                   journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand
                   some of these individuals are forced to collude with
                   cartels.               Taxi drivers are often victims of
                   extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the
                   identity of these individuals will not have a significant
                   impact on cartel                   operations. Politicans
                   have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &amp;
                   Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be
                   any consequences from this.
                        o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent
                   cartels are willing to go protect their operations.
                           o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                           o    Cartels have reached out to the computer
                   science community before, coercing computer science majors
                   into working for them.
                           o    This provides the cartels with the
                   possibility of discovering hackers within Mexico.

                    

                   On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                     Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the
                     idea but there are several issues to address and fix
                     here.

                     These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with
                     the discussion:

                          o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why.
                     that's fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                          o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a
                     difference between stealing bank records from government
                     computers and overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                          o     There's no thought out process of what sort
                     of information could anon have on the cartels. What kind
                     of info is kept online and accessible to potential
                     attacks? You seem to be talking about identities, whose?
                     If anything it's dirty cops, politicians and businessmen
                     who need to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
                     Think about why the bloggers and media were killed in
                     previous instances. Was it because they revealed
                     operational details, because they acted as informants,
                     because they exposed links with officials or because
                     they somehow sullied the cartel's reputation? In short,
                     what kind of information is damaging to the cartels
                     themselves?
                          o     Once you identify this info - think about if
                     anon can realistically access it and disseminate it so
                     it causes a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any
                     intelligence capacity except for the technical ability
                     by a very small number of its members to infiltrate
                     certain networks and databases and steal information.
                     Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on a
                     network that is connected to the internet (aka no
                     intranet)? Where else could information be found?
                     Government databases? Once we know what kind of
                     information is accessible, we can also know more about
                     the consequences of dissemination.
                          o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel?
                     Sufficient to trace back attacks? If it's not, there
                     risks to be a lot of killings done by people who may not
                     understand the difference between an anon hacker and a
                     blogger.

                     On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                       wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                       -------- Original Message --------

                        Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                           Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                           From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
                       Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                             To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

                       you've got some of the issues here, but this is going
                       to need a lot more work

                       You need to lay out:

                       a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your
                       trigger section is unclear
                       b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence
                       is, and therefore their vulnerabilities and
                       capabilities
                       c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
                       anything
                       d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to
                       kill anyone who breaches their systems or exposes
                       their connections

                       I also just want to point out that we have reasonable
                       reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very least has
                       some significant levels of sophistication in their
                       online presence, to include the use of cyber
                       currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no
                       reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
                       business online, in a protected fashion.

                       Karen Hooper
                       Latin America Analyst
                       o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                       c: 512.750.7234
                       STRATFOR
                       www.stratfor.com
                       On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                       On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                       Link: themeData

                       Trigger

                       Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy,
                       hackers. Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group
                       famous for...?, lashed out at drug cartels via the
                       Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
                       criminal cartels, including a video released
                       depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a
                       screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent video
                       release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                       criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities
                       of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
                       politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal
                       cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a
                       fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences.
                       The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal
                       cartels and hackers, presents an unprecedented war
                       front for the cartels. The vastly different operations
                       of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
                       Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in
                       handling. i believe that Anonymous has no experience
                       with the cartels. I do not believe for a second that
                       the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                        

                       In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                       mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                       reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped
                       member this should be mentioned right up front.
                       Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit
                       back. Provide enough details so we understand who this
                       guy is and why/how he was abducted. are not met. If
                       Anonymous' claims of possessing revealing information
                       on cartel members and operations are true, cartels
                       will likely respond with violence against individuals
                       revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you mean
                       Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public
                       disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will
                       force the GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous
                       threat complexity i don't understand what this means.
                       You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
                       effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
                       against Anonymous remains unanswered . However,
                       cartels will continue their threats against any
                       individual using online media WC.... you mean tools?
                       or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here.
                       against the cartels.

                        

                       The Battle Space

                       Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two
                       separate realities from each other. Anonymous operates
                       solely in sphere of the computer networks. Anonymous
                       does not experience geographical boundaries. All
                       personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in cyber
                       space.  (That is not entirely true. They are physical
                       people tho live in the real world. They have names and
                       addresses - although most of them are likely outside
                       of MX.)  Anonymous' power base consists of their
                       technical capabilities in hacking. Any information
                       connected to the Internet is vulnerable to exploits by
                       hackers. (Identifying the pc's of individual cartel
                       members in the midst of Mexico's population could be
                       quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
                       has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
                       Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings
                       in revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't
                       run operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money
                       via e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on
                       the web than the jihadists.)

                       Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's
                       power base consists of the perceived anonymity that
                       its members believe themselves to have, real or
                       otherwise, by operating through the internet. This
                       gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
                       and everything to practice general dickery. As the
                       popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll. Only
                       a fraction of the large web of people who identify
                       themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of serious IT
                       capability. 

                       The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far
                       has been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement
                       Agencies.

                       The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets
                       in US and Mexican cities. They are run as a business,
                       always looking to maximize profits and expand. But
                       they are bricks and mortar commerce. Yes..... but they
                       use the internet to launder money and issue commands.
                       We know that Sinaloa does that from insight. There is
                       no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a
                       similar capacity.  Their power base is built by large
                       amounts of revenue and escalating brutal violence.
                       Cartels like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing
                       different types of threats. Cartels are always
                       suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence.
                       While battling each other, cartels still face arrests
                       by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid
                       any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
                       have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and
                       online bloggers in order to cover details of their
                       operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for
                       this discussion. You need to focus on the possible
                       vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
                       have no cyber presence.

                        

                       Anonymous' Weapons

                       Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions
                       against criminal cartels has yet to be seen.
                       Anonymous' only ability to combat cartels lay in
                       information operations, mainly disseminating sensitive
                       information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel
                       statements via social media and defaced websites in
                       Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As
                       Anonymous admitted in their video to cartels, they
                       cannot fight with guns.  The significance of a
                       targeted information operations campaign by
                       technically elite individuals can not be overlooked
                       should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream
                       media outlets and social media blogs as such a threat
                       to their operations, that they have continued to
                       target journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message
                       signed by Los Zetas was placed with a dead female
                       body  more relevantly, on the body of a blogger. The
                       message threatened any users who denounce cartels on
                       blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's
                       not really addressing the subheading

                       As stated earlier, any information connected to the
                       internet risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample
                       reason to suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing
                       information they threaten to release. By releasing
                       identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
                       cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
                       individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate
                       sensitive information is limited by what is available
                       via the Internet. Government computers connected to
                       the Internet should always be considered a possibility
                       of an attack. However, as with the compartmentalized
                       nature of the US governments computer networks,
                       information available to Mexico's intelligence
                       collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you
                       trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

                        

                       Cartel's Defense

                                   A counter response to the video? by the
                       cartels has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous'
                       claims of a kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los
                       Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by
                       hackers so... how has there not been a counter
                       response? also this undermines your statements above
                       about how Anonymous is soley internet based, and
                       underlines the vulnerabilities of associated members.
                       How did they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to
                       that could very well give you some indication to the
                       technical ability of the cartels . As Anonymous exists
                       in abstract reality of the world wide web , the
                       cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely
                       are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has
                       whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in
                       cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good intel
                       indicating that) they are working on disrupting the
                       cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in
                       any region of the world. Personal information
                       including locations is only available if a hacker
                       chooses to divulge it or if the subject of the attack
                       is savvy enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only
                       work for Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of
                       dealing with their online enemy, if they can
                       physically reach out to them. Or start employing
                       hackers of their own under their payroll? Stranger
                       things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                                   Cartels have been known to coerce the
                       services of Mexican citizens with a technical
                       background. Recruiting the help of computer science
                       majors through personal threats has been reported in
                       the past where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since
                       cartels operate in the world of urban violence and
                       drug trafficking, they will likely need the assistance
                       of technical experts to help combat any threat by
                       computer hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside
                       of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is unlikely
                       cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
                       operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement
                       agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
                       experience and resources than cartels, struggle to
                       find hackers through investigations. A) How do you
                       know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they
                       kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not all
                       hackers are equally difficult to track down

                                   In order to compete with an online foe,
                       cartels will likely continue counter tactics they are
                       most familiar with, brute force. Cartels are still
                       capable of their HUMINT operations within Mexico
                       "still"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?. 
                       Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
                       communities will likely be targeted and interrogated
                       by cartel members.  Narco banners and public display
                       of violence will likely continue to be used to scare
                       online media into submission i'm not really seeing the
                       online media-international hacking group connection
                       here.  The cruel manners in which cartels inflict
                       harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
                       encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
                       cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous
                       will remain to be seen until cartels are able to seek
                       out and capture members of the hacker group.. Or the
                       Narcos could call the collective bluff and simply go
                       on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can
                       inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

             --

             Sean Noonan

             Tactical Analyst

             Office: +1 512-279-9479

             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

             www.stratfor.com

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-25 02:33:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1273433_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tristan.reed@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1275263</id>
    <title>RE: Weekly
</title>
    <description>   Hey-
    
   Sorry to hear about your wife's dad.  My father-in-law is a pretty
   prominent doc in Houston.  If you need anything at all or have questions
   about anybody, etc., please don't hesitate to ask.  I'd be more than glad
   to get him to help out however.
    
   All best,
    
   AA
    
   Aaric S. Eisenstein
   Chief Innovation Officer
   STRATFOR
   512-744-4308
   512-744-4334 fax
   aaric.eisenstein@stratfor.com
   Follow us on http://Twitter.com/stratfor
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, January 22, 2010 4:39 PM
   To: 'Exec'
   Subject: Weekly
   Business
    
   Positive developments with TrapWire in light of the Texas State Capital
   shooting.  I chatted w/the DPS Director and lead Commissioner about the
   need to get this moving so one of my hand picked men was re-assigned today
   to move this off center.  Thank goodness for crazy people.  I wrote the
   master plan to cover all of the DPS bldgs statewide, so if we get one, the
   rest will fall in line.  
    
   Visited w/South African Nate (about UT website lead) and Darryl about the
   opportunities in the on-line educational market as it pertains to homeland
   security, terrorism, security and intelligence analysis courses.  There
   are thousands of US Govt hacks and DOD folks taking on-line courses at
   places like AMU and Henley-Putnam.  The dean at Henley-Putnam is an old
   USSS crony, as a side bar.   I also know one of his chief CIA
   instructors.  He uses Ghost for his surveillance classes.  I think we are
   a natural fit for these schools.  Showed Darryl a good number of the
   on-line courses that are wonderful.    There are approx. 100 schools with
   similar programs to include Kings College in London.   How do we sell them
   our products?  I got no idea.  But, I know how our work would be helpful
   to their students.   
    
   Tactical
    
   Fast-paced week with intel collected on Haiti, the second wave plot
   (aviation), domestic terror plots, Iranian scientist whacked by Lord knows
   who.  
    
   I've learned that AP has an undercover reporter in Iran.  I've used one of
   my AP contacts to task that source to look into the scientist killing. 
    
    
   Media
    
   WTOP radio; Univision (MX) tv on TX State Capital shooting; CNN Atlanta on
   background re Fusion centers.  
    
   An old interview on covert action inside Iran is also getting a fair
   amount of play in various blogs and websites. 
    
   Other
    
   My father-in-law is at MD Anderson for stomach cancer consultations (thank
   you for the help Don) and my wife is taking it pretty hard.  We don't know
   how bad off he may be and are awaiting further tests.  I may need to pop
   down there next week for awhile.   He's a tough old man who has drank far
   too much over the years, so if anybody can beat this, he can. 
    
   My old high school pal Andy Serwer, the Managing Editor of Fortune, has a
   new book out.  It's called Starting Over.   Somehow, he managed to get
   that old coot Walter Isaacson to write a testimonial for his book.  I
   thought he was dead. 
    
   I'm looking at the concept proposal for the movie script for
   Ghost.   Kinda surreal.  I've penciled in more hair.   I just want some
   hot chick to play my sidekick.  Why not?  It's Hollywood. 
    
    
    
    
    
</description>
    <date>2010-01-24 05:30:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1275263_re-weekly-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1276410</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged "Anonymous" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise "anonymous"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-10 19:47:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1276410_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1277361</id>
    <title>A LIST OF THE CRIMES COMMITTED BY THE NWO-Nazis
</title>
    <description>                A LIST OF THE CRIMES COMMITTED BY THE NWO-Nazis

   A list of the crimes committed by the NWO-Nazis.
   Like the WWII Nazis the NWO-Nazis must answer for their crimes.

   Remember the real story of the causes of WWII and the Cold War.
   THE CRIMES:-
   Secret Geophysical Weapons (earthquake, floods, storms, fires) Crimes
   Against Humanity  in Myanmar, China, Iran, USA, Central America, Turkey,
   Greece, Pakistan, India, Japan and Indonesia killing well over a million
   people and massive destruction. (please see the REFERENCES below)

   War Crimes, Crimes Against Humanity and Torture using Directed Energy and
   Neurological Weapons to cause the most horrendous psychological tortures,
   rapes, sexual abuse, surgical mutilations, and other mental and physical
   mutilations on many, many thousands of people worldwide - leaders,
   citizens and combatants.
   (please see the REFERENCES below)

   Dirty Wars and Black Operations fomenting and prolonging conflicts and
   civil strife in Algeria, Sudan, Congo, Thailand, Somalia, Palestine,
   Lebanon, Egypt, Kenya, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Turkey, Russia, Chechnyia,
   Pakistan, India, Kashmir, Sri Lanka, China, Tibet, Colombia, Bolivia
   causing the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people.

   Crimes Against Peace, War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity in Iraq and
   Afghanistan  resulting in the deaths of well over a million people and the
   ongoing destruction of those countries, as the criminals pretend that the
   world's most powerful surveillance and military forces can't establish
   peace and stability there in 5 and 7 years respectively

   Crimes Against Humanity using Directed Energy Weapons to cause crashes,
   electrical and mechanical disasters, and violations of the integrity of
   electronic data and systems killing thousands of people and causing much
   criminal malfeasance. (please see the REFERENCES below)
   Active Criminal Complicity in all of the above crimes by the Media
   Monopolies as almost all public discourse, and as much as 80% of
   'international news', 'events' and 'history', has been degraded into
   produced and managed dramas/atrocities (i.e. wars, disasters, civil strife
   etc), and criminally presented as infotainment, endogenous socio-political
   changes, propaganda and/or pseudo-science.
   (please see the REFERENCES below)

   Active Criminal Complicity in all of the above crimes by other
   Governments, Agencies and International Organisations as there's no
   genuine information or analyses about any of these crimes a** at all.

   Regarding these Crimes Against Humanity, War Crimes, Dirty Wars, Black
   Operations, And Secret Weapons there is a complete  ORWELLIAN/STALINIST
   PUBLIC INFORMATION AND INQUIRY BLACKOUT.

   THE NWO-NAZIS:-
   the USA, UK, NATO (with Secret Geophysical Weapons "Weather Machine" War
   Crimes Bases in Alaska, Norway, Greenland, Australia), Canada, and the
   Agencies, Corporations, and the Media Monopolies actively involved in the
   planning, initiation and perpetration of these crimes

   Like the WWII Nazis the NWO-Nazis must answer for their crimes.

   Remember the real story of the causes of WWII and the Cold War.

    
   SECRET GEOPHYSICAL, DIRECTED ENERGY &amp; NEUROLOGICAL WEAPONS - TECHNICAL &amp;
   POLITICAL/HISTORICAL INFORMATION
   US CONGRESS, EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT &amp; UK PARLIAMENT - BRIEFINGS ON SECRET
   GEOPHYSICAL WEAPONS &amp; 'MIND CONTROL'
   WEB: http://www.policestateplanning.com/briefings.htm

   RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER SERGEI LAVROV - "THE THREAT OF NEW WEAPONRY"
   WEB: http://english.pravda.ru/science/tech/84544-0/

   GLOBAL RESEARCH.CA - WEATHER WARFARE
   WEB:
   http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&amp;code=CHO20020104&amp;articleId=205
   http://www.google.com/search?domains=globalresearch.ca&amp;q=haarp&amp;sa=Google+Search&amp;sitesearch=globalresearch.ca
   "HAARP IS FULLY OPERATIONAL AND HAS THE ABILITY OF POTENTIALLY TRIGGERING
   FLOODS, DROUGHTS, HURRICANES AND EARTHQUAKES. FROM A MILITARY STANDPOINT,
   HAARP IS A WEAPON OF MASS DESTRUCTION"

   CAMPAIGN FOR COOPERATION IN SPACE - HAARP IS A SPACE-BASED WEAPON OF
   MASS-DESTRUCTION
   WEB:
   http://peaceinspace.blogs.com/peaceinspaceorg/2008/05/haarp-is-a-spac.html

   FROM PRAVDA - SECRET GEOPHYSICAL WEAPONS - "UNPREDICTABLE NATURAL
   DISASTERS AND MAN-CAUSED CATASTROPHES"
   WEB: http://english.pravda.ru/main/2003/01/15/42068.html
   SECRET GEOPHYSICAL WEAPONS
   WEB: http://www.rense.com/general28/deathray.htm

   THE SHOCKING MENACE OF SATELLITE SURVEILLANCE by John Fleming
   WEB: http://www.sianews.com/modules.php?name=News&amp;file=article&amp;sid=1068

   JOHN ST. CLAIR AKWEI VS. NSA, FT. MEADE, MD, USA
   WEB: http://www.angelfire.com/or/mctrl/akwei.html

   SYSTEMS OF SURVEILLANCE &amp; REPRESSION by Judy Malloy
   WEB: http://www.well.com/user/jmalloy/gunterandgwen/resources.html

   WANTTOKNOW. INFO/MINDCONTROL
   WEB: http://www.wanttoknow.info/mindcontrol10pg
   MIND CONTROL &amp; SUBLIMINAL SUGGESTION - 100 USA PATENTS
   WEB: http://www.rexresearch.com/sublimin/sublimin.htm

   ON THE NEED FOR NEW CRITERIA OF DIAGNOSIS OF PSYCHOSIS IN THE LIGHT OF
   MIND INVASIVE TECHNOLOGY, CAROLE SMITH, JOURNAL OF PSYCHO-SOCIAL STUDIES ,
   VOL 2(2) NO 3 2003
   WEB: http://www.angelfire.com/or/mctrl/NewCrit-JPSS-CS2.htm

   PROJECT CENSORED - HUMAN RIGHTS AND FREEDOM OF THOUGHT VIOLATIONS BY US
   MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATIONS.
   WEB:
   http://www.projectcensored.org/articles/story/us-intelligence-community-human-rights-violations/

   PROJECT CENSORED - NO HABEAS CORPUS FOR 'ANY PERSON'
   "THE NEW LAW APPEARS TO CREATE A PARALLEL 'STAR CHAMBER' SYSTEM FOR THE
   PROSECUTION, IMPRISONMENT, AND POSSIBLE EXECUTION OF ENEMIES OF THE STATE,
   WHETHER THOSE ENEMIES ARE FOREIGN OR DOMESTIC"
   WEB:
   http://www.projectcensored.org/top-stories/articles/1-no-habeas-corpus-for-any-person/

   PROJECT CENSORED - AN ELECTION WITHOUT MEANING
   "WILL HABEAS CORPUS AND POSSE COMITATUS BE RESTORED TO THE PEOPLE? WILL
   TORTURE STOP?...WILL THE US NATIONAL SECURITY AGENCIES STOP MASS SPYING ON
   OUR PERSONAL COMMUNICATIONS? WILL THE NEO-CONSERVATIVE AGENDA OF TOTAL
   MILITARY DOMINATION OF THE WORLD BE REVERSED?"
   WEB:
   http://www.projectcensored.org/articles/story/an-election-without-meaning/

   WALL STREET JOURNAL - NSA's DOMESTIC SPYING GROWS
   WEB:
   http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120511973377523845.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news

   AUSTRALIA FIRST TO ADMIT "WE'RE PART OF GLOBAL SURVEILLANCE SYSTEM" -
   ECHELON OUTED BY THE HEAD OF AUSTRALIA'S DEFENCE SIGNALS DIRECTORATE
   (DSD), MARTIN BRADY.
   WEB: http://www.heise.de/tp/r4/artikel/2/2889/1.html

   MONARCH THE NEW PHOENIX PROGRAM
   WEB: http://www.monarchnewphoenix.com/ , http://www.myspace.com/marsboy683

   THE EUROPEAN UNION...A TOTALITARIAN POLICE STATE IN THE MAKINGa*|.?
   WEB:
   http://groups.google.de/group/archive_news/browse_thread/thread/ad50ce7bbeaffbca?hl=en

   BUSH/USA - WAR CRIMES &amp; HITLER CONNECTIONS
   WEB:
   http://www.huffingtonpost.com/larisa-alexandrovna/all-the-presidents-nazis_b_102022.html

   STATE-SPONSORED TERROR:  BRITISH AND AMERICAN BLACK OPS IN IRAQ
   WEB: http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&amp;aid=9447
   PROJECT CENSORED - THE PROPAGANDA MODEL &amp; ACCELERATED MEDIA CONCENTRATION
   A HANDFUL OF MULTINATIONAL CORPORATIONS CONTROLS NEARLY EVERYTHING WE SEE
   AND HEAR ON THE SCREEN, OVER THE AIRWAVES AND IN PRINT. WHAT IMPACT DOES
   CONSOLIDATION HAVE ON NEWS COVERAGE, ENTERTAINMENT CULTURE, FREEDOM OF
   SPEECH AND DEMOCRACY?
   WEB:
   http://www.projectcensored.org/articles/story/left-progressive-media-inside-the-propaganda-model/

   THE NEW MEDIA MONOPOLY - BEN BAGDIKIAN
   DESCRIBES THE CARTEL OF FIVE GIANT MEDIA CONGLOMERATES WHO NOW CONTROL THE
   MEDIAa*|. THEY MANUFACTURE POLITICS AND SOCIAL VALUES... A COUNTRY WITHOUT
   ALL THE SIGNIFICANT NEWS, POINTS OF VIEW, AND INFORMATION ITS CITIZENS
   NEED TO BE INFORMED IS RISKING THE LOSS OF DEMOCRATIC RIGHTS.
   WEB: http://benbagdikian.net/index.htm

   ABOUT THE CAUSES OF THE 2ND WORLD WAR
   WEB: http://www.agitprop.org.au/lefthistory/1948_falsifiers_of_history.php
   USA REPRESENTATIVE JIM GUEST'S (MO) LETTER
   WEB: http://www.freedomfchs.com/repjimguestltr.pdf

   "October 10, 2007
   Dear Member of the Legislature and Friends:

   This letter is to ask for your help for the many constituents in our
   country who are being affected unjustly by electronic weapons torture and
   covert harassment groups. Serious privacy rights violations and physical
   injuries have been caused by the activities of these groups and their use
   of so-called non-lethal weapons on men, women, and even children.

   I am asking you to play a role in helping these victims and also stopping
   the massive movement in the use of Verichip and RFID technologies in
   tracking Americans. . .  . . ."

   Sincerely,
   Representative Jim Guest  EMAIL: Jim.Guest@house.mo.gov ,
   jimoguest@msn.com 
   WEB: http://jimguest.com/

   PLEASE CONTACT US FOR FURTHER INFORMATION:-
   Yours in the search for openness and respect for universal human rights
   John Finch, 5/8 Kemp St, Thornbury, Vic 3071, Australia, TEL: 0424009627
   EMAIL: tijohnfinch@gmail.com, MCmailteam@gmail.com

   TARGETED INDIVIDUAL and a member of THE WORLDWIDE CAMPAIGN AGAINST TORTURE
   AND ABUSE USING DIRECTED ENERGY AND NEUROLOGICAL WEAPONS
   DIRECTED ENERGY &amp; NEUROLOGICAL WEAPONS VICTIMS' ORGANISATIONS &amp; FURTHER
   INFORMATION
   FREEDOM FROM COVERT HARASSMENT AND SURVEILLANCE
   MR DERRICK ROBINSON
   WEB: http://freedomfchs.com/
   EMAIL: info@freedomfchs.com, derrickrobinson@gmail.com,

   THE ASSOCIATION AGAINST THE ABUSE OF PSYCHOPHYSICAL WEAPONS
   PRESIDENT SWETLANA SCHUNIN
   EMAIL: DimitriSchunin@gmx.de, ka4143-896@online.de,
   WEB: http://psychophysischer-terror.de.tl/

   THE AMERICAN COGNITIVE LIBERTIES ASSOCIATION
   THE DIRECTOR
   WEB: http://americancognitivelibertiesassoc.org/default.aspx
   EMAIL: emailus@americancognitivelibertiesassoc.org,
   ACLA@americancognitivelibertiesassoc.org,

   THE FEDERATION AGAINST MIND CONTROL EUROPE
   MS MONIKA STOCES, MR DANNY BONTE
   WEB: http://www.mindcontrol-victims.eu/
   EMAIL: MCmailteam@gmail.com, monika.stoces@telenet.be,
   monika.stoces@gmail.com, danny.bonte@gmail.com,

   MIND CONTROL - TECHNOLOGY, TECHNIQUES &amp; POLITICS
   MR ALLEN BARKER Ph.D
   WEB: http://www.cs.virginia.edu/~alb/misc/truth.html ,
   http://www.cs.virginia.edu/~alb/misc/moreMindLinks.html

   SURVEILLANCE ISSUES
   MR PAUL BAIRD
   WEB: www.surveillanceissues.com
   EMAIL: p.baird@surveillanceissues.com,

   SECRET ILLEGAL SURVEILLANCE AND ATTACKS
   MS LESLIE CRAWFORD
   WEB: http://www.lesliecrawford.cabanova.com/page1.html
   EMAIL: lesliecraw40@talkamerica.net

   MIND JUSTICE
   MS CHERYL WELSH
   WEB: http://www.mindjustice.org/
   EMAIL: welsh@dcn.davis.ca.us

   INTERNATIONAL MOVEMENT TO BAN THE MANIPULATION OF THE HUMAN NERVOUS SYSTEM
   BY TECHNICAL MEANS,
   MR MOMJIR BABACEK
   WEB: http://www.geocities.com/CapeCanaveral/Campus/2289/webpage.htm,
   http://web.iol.cz/mhzzrz/
   EMAIL: mbabacek@iol.cz, welsh@dcn.davis.ca.us,

   FRANCE - INFORMATION DOSSIER

   WEB: http://informationdossier.wordpress.com/
   EMAIL: rudyrud2004@gmail.com

   GERMANY - VEREIN GEGEN DEN MISSBRAUCH PSYCHOPHYSISCHER WAFFEN
   WEB: http://psychophysischer-terror.de.tl/

   ASSOCIAZIONE VITTIME ARMI ELETTRONICHE-MENTALI
   MR PAOLO DORIGO
   WEB: http://it.geocities.com/decifircas/ , 
   www.associazionevittimearmielettroniche-mentali.org
   EMAIL: info@avae-m.org,
   info@associazionevittimearmielettroniche-mentali.org, basmau@libero.it,
   paola.marziani@libero.it, antanarivo@libero.it,

   INDIA - NO MORE COVERT MIND CONTROL WEAPONS

   MR FEISAL SALIM A.S.
   WEB: http://www.mindcontrolvictimsunity.in/
   EMAIL: info@mindcontrolvictimsunity.in, informvictim@gmail.com
   CHINA - PEACEPINK -c,^2*c,-o-c-aa**aa^1^3
   MS SOLEILMAVIS
   WEB:  http://groups.google.com/group/soleilmavismailteam/ 
   http://soleilmavis.googlepages.com/ ,

   http://groups.google.com/group/soleilmavis (IN CHINESE)
   http://soleilmavis.spaces.live.com/
   EMAIL: soleilmavis@yahoo.com,

    

   JAPAN - STOP MIND CONTROL
   a*(R)a*ua*CURa**a*-a**aa*uaa*"ae**e!*a**aa?*c,**aa|c,*a**ae*-ac,*"a**a**a**a**a*CURa*^3a**a*^3a*^3a**a*a*
   1/4a*&lt;&lt;a*(R)aa 1/4.aa*P:a:-o-oa: 1/2*aa(R)*e"*a*&lt;&lt;aa**aa- 3/4a**a* 3/4a**

   WEB: http://www5f.biglobe.ne.jp/~terre/index.html , http://www.mirai1.com/
   , (in JAPANESE and ENGLISH)
    http://www.geocities.jp/techhanzainetinfo/  (in JAPANESE)

   JAPAN -
   WEB: http://gangstalkinginde.blog59.fc2.com/

   THE MOSCOW HOUSING ECOLOGY COMMITTEE
   MS ALLA PETUKHOVA
   WEB: http://www.moscomeco.narod.ru./
   EMAIL: pealla@mail.ru, moscomeco@mail.ru, moskomekologia@narod.ru

   THE ST.PETERSBOURGH SOCIETY OF PERSONS SUBJECT TO REMOTE CONTROLLED
   BIOENERGETIC TERROR
   THE DIRECTORS
   WEB: http://psyterror.narod.ru/
   EMAIL: pealla@mail.ru, moscomeco@mail.ru, moskomekologia@narod.ru

   BAN ELECTRONIC WARFARE ON CIVILIANS PETITION
   280 + SIGNATURES AND MESSAGES OF VICTIMS &amp; SUPPORTERS
   WEB: http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/synergy/?e
   EMAIL: ti.synergy@gmail.com, kommmy@gmail.com

   MIND CONTROL FORUM VICTIMS' ACCOUNTS
   600 + VICTIMS' ACCOUNTS
   WEB: http://www.mindcontrolforums.com/archv-hm.htm

   NAFF - ADVOCATING FOR VICTIMS OF MIND CONTROL, TORTURE, SLAVERY &amp; RELATED
   TERROR
   MS KATHLEEN SULLIVAN
   WEB: http://naffoundation.org/
   EMAIL: mail@naffoundation.org

   FASCISM - "9-11" - MIND CONTROL
   MR JAMES MARINO
   WEB: http://www.9-11themotherofallblackoperations.blogspot.com/
   EMAIL:  peaceseeker12@hotmail.com

   CITIZENS AGAINST HUMAN EXPERIMENTATION
   MR RICHARD PERLMANN
   WEB: http://www.healthycitizens.blogspot.com/
   EMAIL: healthycitizens@gmail.com, rjp@healthycitizens.com

   THE CENTER FOR COGNITIVE LIBERTY &amp; ETHICS (CCLE)
   MR RICHARD GLEN BOIRE, DR WRYE SENTENTIA
   WEB: http://www.cognitiveliberty.org/index.html
   EMAIL: info@cognitiveliberty.org,

   RULE OF LAW DEFENDERS
   MR MOE HOSNY
   WEB: www.hosnyinfo.com
   EMAIL: defend_law@yahoo.ca

   MIKROWELLENTERROR.DE/
   WEB: http://www.mikrowellenterror.de/
   EMAIL: info@mikrowellenterror.de, webmaster@mikrowellenterror.de

   INTERNATIONAL COMMITTEE ON OFFENSIVE MICROWAVE WEAPONS
   MR HARLAN GIRARD
   WEB: http://www.icomw.org/
   EMAIL: http://www.icomw.org/contact.asp

   THE OMINOUS PARALLELS
   WEB: http://www. theominousparallels.blogspot. com/
   EMAIL: theominousparallels@gmail.com , theepitbull@gmail.com,

   EXOTIC WARFARE.COM
   WEB: http://exoticwarfare.org/
   EMAIL: journalist@Safe-mail.net, texassupport@fastmail.fm

   ORGANIZED CRIME WAVES
   MS ELIZABETH ADAMS
   http://www.organizedcrimewaves.com/
   EMAIL: organizedgovcrimes@yahoo.com

   EMF TORTURE CHAMBER
   MS T. JOSEPHINE
   WEB: http://www.geocities.com/xposperps/
   EMAIL: http://emftorturechamber.blogspot.com/, xposperps@yahoo.com

   TECHNOLOGICAL TORTURE
   MS PAT STEWART
   WEB: http://iamatorturevictim.blogspot.com/
   EMAIL: stewardp34@bellsouth.net

   US CITIZENS ARE SECRETLY BEING USED AS RESEARCH RATS
   WEB: http://researchrat.com/
   EMAIL: targetelephant@yahoo.com

   THE DECLARATION OF ALARMED CITIZENS 
   MR JEAN VERSTRAETEN
   EMAIL: verstraeten.jean@belgacom.net

   MR WALDEMAR LOTZ  -
   EMAIL: wlotz2003@web.de, wlotz2002@mail.ru,

   MR WALTER MADLIGER
   EMAIL: wmadliger@yahoo.de,

   MR DARIUS MOCKUS
   EMAIL: darius_mockus@yahoo.com,

   MS DENISE S. POMPL
   EMAIL: eralimoltd@aol.com, lperlowitz@yahoo.com,

   A very, very partial LIST OF VICTIMS OF DIRECTED ENERGY &amp; NEUROLOGICAL
   WEAPONS

   THE AMERICAS

   1.                    NAME: ELIZABETH ADAMS

   2.                    NAME: AKU

   3.                    NAME: al23

   4.                    NAME: NEAL ALCHALABI (NEAL CHAMBERS)

   5.                    NAME: ALETA

   6.                    NAME: GARY ALGAR

   7.                    NAME: RON ANGELL

   8.                    NAME: ANN

   9.                    NAME: ARIZONA - 6 VIGILANTE/ELECTRONIC HARASSMENT
   VICTIMS

   10.                 NAME: ANNYCE ARNTZEN

   11.                 NAME: RANDY ARRASMITH

   12.                 NAME: SANA ASFOUR (Reham Dawood)

   13.                 NAME: DEVORAH BAKER

   14.                 NAME:   LINDSAY G. BALDWIN

   15.                 NAME: VERNON WAYNE BALL

   16.                 NAME: BRENDA BARAQUIL

   17.                 NAME: ALLEN BARKER

   18.                 NAME:  KAY BARNES

   19.                 NAME: ERIC BAZAN

   20.                 NAME: DAVID ALAN BEACH

   21.                 NAME: MATT BEAL

   22.                 NAME: PAUL BEGGS

   23.                 NAME: SHERRY BELL

   24.                 NAME: MARILYN BERRY

   25.                 NAME: STACEY BERRY

   26.                 NAME: KATA BILLUPS

   27.                 NAME: KAYLON BLACKBURN

   28.                 NAME: JOHN BRASWELL

   29.                 NAME: LAURIE BRODIE

   30.                 NAME: EMILIO BRUGUEROS

   31.                 NAME: BETH BUCHANAN

   32.                 NAME:  KEVIN BURNOR

   33.                 NAME: ROBERT BUTLER

   34.                 NAME: ROBERT O. BUTNER

   35.                 NAME: CADEWCH

   36.                 NAME: CARLO CALANDRA

   37.                 NAME: KELLY CASLAR

   38.                 NAME: MILAGROS CEDANO

   39.                 NAME: RICHARD CENTENO

   40.                 NAME: DIANA MARIE CHAPMAN

   41.                 NAME: ROMY COCHRAN

   42.                 NAME: GREGORY COUSINS

   43.                 NAME: LESLIE L. CRAWFORD

   44.                 NAME: CHRIS a** FREEDOM FIGHTERS FOR AMERICA

   45.                 NAME: MARY CROOK

   46.                 NAME: OPHNELL CUMBERBATCH

   47.                 NAME: VALERIE CUTLER

   48.                 NAME: D

   49.                 NAME: N D

   50.                 NAME: WANDA AND SARA DABLIN

   51.                 NAME: DAVID

   52.                 NAME: D DEERWOMAN

   53.                 NAME: RaA-ol Luis DEL VALLE

   54.                 NAME: ROBERT ALAN DESROSIERS

   55.                 NAME: BETH DONAHUE

   56.                 NAME: DONALD DUNLAP

   57.                 NAME: BOB G DUNLAP

   58.                 NAME: DICK EASTMAN

   59.                 NAME: TARGET ELEPHANT

   60.                 NAME: SAM EVANS

   61.                 NAME: DOUGLAS EVERMAN

   62.                 NAME: RAISA EYDELMAN

   63.                 NAME: MARY FAIR

   64.                 NAME: PAM FARNSWORTH

   65.                 NAME: SCOTT FITZGERALD

   66.                 NAME: DONALD FOSTER

   67.                 NAME: KEVIN FOWLER

   68.                 NAME: KATHLEENE SUSAN FRANCIS

   69.                 NAME: BILL GALLAGHER

   70.                 NAME: HERBERT GARTNER

   71.                 NAME: GENA aka FREEDOM

   72.                 NAME: PAUL GOLDING-CLARK

   73.                 NAME: FLORA GOLTSMAN

   74.                 NAME: RAFAEL GONZALEZ

   75.                 NAME: ERIC R GOODMAN

   76.                 NAME: MARY GOODWIN

   77.                 NAME: AARON GOODWIN

   78.                 NAME: JAMES HENRY GRAF

   79.                 NAME: ERIC GRIFFIN

   80.                 NAME: SHERI GRUTZ

   81.                 NAME: ERIC H

   82.                 NAME: MARGARET HABIB

   83.                 NAME: MIKAL HALEY

   84.                 NAME: DEB HALL AND SON

   85.                 NAME: JIMMY HALLER

   86.                 NAME: JONATHAN C HANSEN

   87.                 NAME: MOLLY R. HARDIN

   88.                 NAME: NAOMI HARRIS

   89.                 NAME: RONALD HAUCKE

   90.                 NAME: KATHLEEN T. HECKMAN

   91.                 NAME: DORIS HICKS

   92.                 NAME: SUSAN HONAKER &amp; FAMILY

   93.                 NAME: MOSTAFA HOSNY

   94.                 NAME: ROSARIO HOUSEHOLDER (MARA)

   95.                 NAME: JULIE HOWELL

   96.                 NAME: JOHN HUGHES

   97.                 NAME: MARLENA HUGHES

   98.                 NAME: MARK IANNICELLI aka. Muhammad Iannicelli, aka
   MuhammadLi,

   99.                 NAME: INTERIQ

   100.              NAME: "IQPRISONER"

   101.              NAME: JACK

   102.              NAME: PHILLIP JACKSON

   103.              NAME: RICHARD DEAN JACOB

   104.              NAME: JEANNIE

   105.              NAME: JENNIFER

   106.              NAME: JIM

   107.              NAME: JILLYJOHNSON

   108.              NAME: MARY JOHNSON

   109.              NAME: JON

   110.              NAME: GEORGE JONES

   111.              NAME: MARK JONES

   112.              NAME: STEVEN JONES

   113.              NAME: T. JOSEPHINE

   114.              NAME: JUNE

   115.              NAME: KEVIN JUNIOR

   116.              NAME: KATHI

   117.              NAME: THE KATS FAMILY

   118.              NAME: KEITH

   119.              NAME: TANYA KELLER

   120.              NAME: SHAFIQ KHAN

   121.              NAME: KIM

   122.              NAME: PATRICIA A. KINSELLA

   123.              NAME: NICHOLAS KIRKLAND

   124.              NAME: THOMAS J. KLUEGEL

   125.              NAME: LINDA KMIOTEK

   126.              NAME: TREVOR KOKOTYLO

   127.              NAME: KOMMY

   128.              NAME: VICTORIA KUPHALL

   129.              NAME: GALINA KURDINA

   130.              NAME: C L

   131.              NAME: JOHN GREGORY LAMBROS

   132.              NAME: GARY N LANDRY

   133.              NAME: EDGAR R. LAVERDE

   134.              NAME: DONALD LEE aka the Shadowillowist, Geshe Roache
   Lee

   135.              NAME: MARCIA LEE

   136.              NAME: NADINE LEE

   137.              NAME: JANET LEIH

   138.              NAME: JENNIFER LICHY

   139.              NAME: JOHN M LITO

   140.              NAME: VICTOR LIVINGSTON

   141.              NAME: STEPHEN LONG

   142.              NAME: RAMONA LOPEZ

   143.              NAME: RENE LOSADA

   144.              NAME: ROGER R. LOWE

   145.              NAME: C C M &amp; FAMILY

   146.              NAME: BARRY MADISON

   147.              NAME: WAYNE MADSEN

   148.              NAME: SANDRA L MAIZLAND

   149.              NAME: WAYNE MANZO

   150.              NAME: BRUNO MARCHESANI

   151.              NAME: STEFANO MARESCOTTI

   152.              NAME: JAMES F. MARINO

   153.              NAME: JON MASON

   154.              NAME: MICHAEL A MATLOFF

   155.              NAME: A J MCKAY

   156.              NAME: FRED McKENNA

   157.              NAME: DARREN C MCMAHON

   158.              NAME: JOHN MECCA &amp; DEBBIE LAMB

   159.              NAME: MICHELLE MELLEMA

   160.              NAME: JESUS MENDOZA

   161.              NAME: BARRY MICHAEL

   162.              NAME: NANCY MILLER

   163.              NAME: MELODY MINEO

   164.              NAME: FERNANDO ARAKAKI MIRANDA

   165.              NAME: CINDY MITCHUM

   166.              NAME: AMIR MOHAMADI

   167.              NAME: M. ALEX MOLARO

   168.              NAME: RICHARD MONGEON

   169.              NAME: DANIEL L. MOORE

   170.              NAME: KATHERINE MOORE

   171.              NAME: DANIEL MORGAN AND FAMILY a** LORNA, NICOLE,
   PATRICIA, CHRISTOPHER, DYLAN, AVERY

   172.              NAME: ANGELA MORGAN

   173.              NAME: CAROLYN MORIYAMA

   174.              NAME: VICTOR N. MOTURI

   175.              NAME: MASSIE MUNRO

   176.              NAME: CHUCK MURPHY

   177.              NAME: KAMRAN NAQVI

   178.              NAME: GLORIA NAYLOR

   179.              NAME: BRYAN NAZAM

   180.              NAME: CONNIE NEAL

   181.              NAME: KERRI NEAL

   182.              NAME: NEBRASKA - 6 YR TARGETED INDIVIDUAL

   183.              NAME: DEBBIE N., FAMILY &amp; FRIENDS

   184.              NAME: RICHARD NOEN

   185.              NAME: MAUREEN NORMAN

   186.              NAME: TIMOTHY A. NORMAN

   187.              NAME: L O

   188.              NAME: TERRY PARKER JR. /AKA ROBERTSON

   189.              NAME: PAMELA PARKER

   190.              NAME: DELLY PELC

   191.              NAME: ROBERTO PEREIRA

   192.              NAME: RICHARD PERLMAN

   193.              NAME: ARIEL FELICE PHILLIPS

   194.              NAME: DENISE S. POMPL

   195.              NAME: POW

   196.              NAME: BYRON PRIOR &amp; FAMILY

   197.              NAME: ANDREA PSORAS

   198.              NAME: MARY R

   199.              NAME: NORMAN R RABIN

   200.              NAME: KELLY RASMUSSEN

   201.              NAME: KELLY RAY

   202.              NAME: TIM RIFAT

   203.              NAME: R. S. ROGERS

   204.              NAME: MR AND MRS GARRY ROMANIK

   205.              NAME: PAUL ROSE

   206.              NAME: VICTORIA ROSE

   207.              NAME: PETER ROSENHOLM

   208.              NAME: JUSTICE RUIZ

   209.              NAME: PIERRE SAMSON

   210.              NAME: MELISSA SANDERSON

   211.              NAME: LUCIA SANTOS &amp; FAMILY

   212.              NAME: JILL SAWYER

   213.              NAME: SARAH SCHAEFFER

   214.              NAME: STEFAN A. SCHOELLMANN

   215.              NAME: DELISA SCHOOLER

   216.              NAME: DOROTHY SCHULTZ

   217.              NAME: BEVERLY A. SCHWEITZER

   218.              NAME: RYAN SHIELDS

   219.              NAME: DAVID SMITH

   220.              NAME: STEPHEN SMITH

   221.              NAME: MIRIAM SNYDER

   222.              NAME: DR CARLOS SOSA M.D.

   223.              NAME: GERAL SOSBEE

   224.              NAME: CARL SPERR

   225.              NAME: ARCHIE STAFFORD

   226.              NAME: STEPHEN

   227.              NAME: STEPHEN

   228.              NAME: PAT STEWART

   229.              NAME: CHRIS STUDIO &amp; GIRLFRIEND

   230.              NAME: KRISSI STULL

   231.              NAME: ANDRZEJ SUDA

   232.              NAME: SUSPICIOUS DEATHS OF WRITERS AND JOURNALISTS WHO
   INVESTIGATED MINDCONTROL CRIMES/ MUERTES SOSPECHOSAS DE PERIODISTAS SOBRE
   CONTROL MENTAL

   233.              NAME: DOROTHY SZCZEPKOWSKI

   234.              NAME: ADAM TAMBLE

   235.              NAME: GRIMS TAROEEL

   236.              NAME: LOLITA TAYLOR

   237.              NAME: TERESA TAYLOR

   238.              NAME: MICHAEL TERRY

   239.              NAME: BETH TIOXIN

   240.              NAME: TONY

   241.              NAME: CHRISTOPHER LAMONT TRICE

   242.              NAME: LYN TROXEL

   243.              NAME: ANNA TSENTSIPER

   244.              NAME: TORRANCE TURNER

   245.              NAME: URI AKA DOCTOR NO.

   246.              NAME: DON VALENTINE

   247.              NAME: CHAD VANDERGRIFF

   248.              NAME: THA*RA*SE VERSAILLES

   249.              NAME: JAMES M. VIERLING JR.

   250.              NAME: BAY RIDGE VIETNAM

   251.              NAME: J L VITT

   252.              NAMES: MARY VIVIAN, MARLENE VIVIAN AND FLORENCE VIVIAN

   253.              NAME: PETER K.VOSOUGH

   254.              NAME: JAMES WALBERT &amp; FAMILY

   255.              NAME: TIMOTHY WAITE

   256.              NAME: ROBERT WALKER

   257.              NAME: FELICIA WARD

   258.              NAME: MARK WATERHOUSE

   259.              NAME: STEW WEBB

   260.              NAME: DR ALFRED WEBRE

   261.              NAME: CLARE WEHRLE

   262.              NAME: DOMINIE WELCH

   263.              NAME: JOHN WELLS

   264.              NAME: TERRY WENTZELL

   265.              NAME: TIMOTHY WHITE

   266.              NAME: GLENDA WHITEMAN

   267.              NAME: STEVE WILSON

   268.              NAME: ROBERT WOOD

   269.              NAME: KAIS YACOUB

   270.              NAME: MARION YOUNG

   271.              NAME: GEORGE ZACHYSTAL

   272.              NAME: CHRIS ZUCKER

   EUROPE

   1.                    NAME: GABRIELE ALTENDORF

   2.                    NAME: HERBERT ALTENDORF

   3.                    NAME: JA*RGEN ALTENDORF

   4.                    NAME: BRIGITTE ALTHOF

   5.                    NAME: ANATOLIJ

   6.                    NAME: RUDY ANDRIA

   7.                    NAME: DENNIS ARNOLD &amp; YASMIN JEREMY

   8.                    NAME: NAMAN ASGHAR &amp; FAMILY

   9.                    NAME: AZA

   10.                 NAME: MOJMIR BABACEK

   11.                 NAME: WALTRAUB BABL

   12.                 NAME: STEPHEN BAKER

   13.                 NAME: REZA BAYAT

   14.                 NAME: JENNIFER BERKEMEIER

   15.                 NAME: JEAN-PAUL BOLEA

   16.                 NAME: ALFREDO NIETO CENTENO

   17.                 NAME: "CHICKEN"

   18.                 NAME: MICHAEL CHMELIK

   19.                 NAME: JA*RGEN CHRISTIANSEN

   20.                 NAME: CARL CLARK

   21.                 NAME: JOHN CLIFTOZ

   22.                 NAME: ANDREW COLE

   23.                 NAME: DAVID COULSON

   24.                 NAME: KARLHEINZ CROISSANT

   25.                 NAME: STAN CUMANS

   26.                 NAME: DARRIM &amp; FAMILY

   27.                 NAME: MARIA PAULA ONOFRE DAS NEVES

   28.                 NAME: PETRIT DEMO

   29.                 NAME: BEN DEMPSEY

   30.                 NAME: NANS DESMICHELS

   31.                 NAME: R. DIECKMANN

   32.                 NAME: FEJERVARY DOMINIK

   33.                 NAME: OVIDIU DONCIU

   34.                 NAME: PAOLO DORIGO

   35.                 NAME: LINDA DREW

   36.                 NAME: CAROL DUKE

   37.                 NAME: MARTIN EMMEN

   38.                 NAME: DEVON FOWLER

   39.                 NAME: AB FRIS

   40.                 NAME: SIGRUN GEBHARDT

   41.                 NAME: PRICOPI GELU

   42.                 NAME: RUTH GILL

   43.                 NAME: OXANA GRUNWALD &amp; FAMILY

   44.                 NAME: GUMIND

   45.                 NAME: SIMON HAYES

   46.                 NAME: JOHAN HELLER

   47.                 NAME: PETER HELWIG

   48.                 NAME: STEIN E HENRIKSEN

   49.                 NAME: TON HOOGEBOOM AND GERARD HOOGEBOOM

   50.                 NAME: AREND TER HORST

   51.                 NAME: MERV HUGHES

   52.                 NAME: INA

   53.                 NAME: LINDA JANE INCE

   54.                 NAME: MICHAEL IRVING

   55.                 NAME: ITALY - OVER 60 VICTIMS

   56.                 NAME: JULIAN JACKSON

   57.                 NAME: MAURICE KELLETT

   58.                 NAME: DEREK KINMOND

   59.                 NAME: BRIGITTE KLAUS

   60.                 NAME: MATTHIAS KLEIN

   61.                 NAME: JAN KREWINKEL

   62.                 NAME: PETER KUTZA

   63.                 NAME: AUDRIUS KVILIUNAS

   64.                 NAME: SERGE LABRA*ZE

   65.                 NAME: GAGIU IULIAN LAURENTIU

   66.                 NAME: HENRY LICHTERFELDT

   67.                 NAME: LINDA

   68.                 NAME: BARTLOMIEJ LISTWAN

   69.                 NAME: TATJANA LOTZ

   70.                 NAME: WALDEMAR LOTZ

   71.                 NAME: FERNANDO SANTAMARIA LOZANO

   72.                 NAME: A M

   73.                 NAME: MARIUS M

   74.                 NAME: WALTER MADLIGER

   75.                 NAME: JARKKO MAKKONEN

   76.                 NAME: RAMON MARTINEZ

   77.                 NAME: CHRISTINE MARX

   78.                 NAME:  MATTERWAVE

   79.                 NAME: DARIUS MOCKUS

   80.                 NAME: Victor MONCHAMP

   81.                 NAME: THIERRY MOUTON

   82.                 NAME: CAYEN NISSEN

   83.                 NAME: MAUREEN NORMAN

   84.                 NAME: DEBBIE PARTRIDGE

   85.                 NAME: LIDIA POPOVA

   86.                 NAME: NADIE PRIEUR

   87.                 NAME: DRAGINJA NATASHA PUSICH

   88.                 NAME: CAROL RAE

   89.                 NAME: WILLIAM RAE

   90.                 NAME: RANDOLPH

   91.                 NAME: REDMANN

   92.                 NAME: KAREN RODDY

   93.                 NAME: KLAUS RUDOLF

   94.                 NAME: JACQUELINE SALII

   95.                 NAME: RUUT SALO

   96.                 NAME: PAUL SAUNDERSON

   97.                 NAME: PAOLA SBRONZERI

   98.                 NAME: SWETLANA SCHUNIN AND FAMILY a** DIMITRI, SERGEY,
   DMITRI

   99.                 NAME: ANGELINA SCHWEYEN

   100.              NAME: RICHARD SLUITER

   101.              NAME: JAVIER RUIZ SOBRINO

   102.              NAME: MONIKA SOKAL

   103.              NAME: WALDTRAUT SRERNITZKE

   104.              NAME: KIM STIRLING &amp; FAMILY

   105.              NAME: MONIKA STOCES

   106.              NAME: REGINA STOLL

   107.              NAME:  SUSPICIOUS DEATHS OF WRITERS AND JOURNALISTS WHO
   INVESTIGATED MINDCONTROL CRIMES/ MUERTES SOSPECHOSAS DE PERIODISTAS SOBRE
   CONTROL MENTAL

   108.              NAME: TI29187

   109.              NAME: MO TAHANI

   110.              NAME: FRANCIS TAILOKA

   111.              NAME: NATALIE TEULON

   112.              NAME: TARA TILLY (THOMAS RITA)

   113.              NAME: HELMUT TONDL

   114.              NAME: SAHAR TORKY

   115.              NAME: INGRID TREMEL

   116.              NAME: UN JEUNE INGENIEUR

   117.              NAME: EMILIA MARIA VAZ-MARCH

   118.              NAME: JEAN VERSTRAETEN

   119.              NAME: JACQUES VUILLOD

   120.              NAME: WATERFALL

   121.              NAME: RANDOLF WEINAND

   122.              NAME: CHRISTINA WYATT

   123.              NAME: OVER 60 VICTIMS FROM ITALY

   CHINA &amp; ASIA-PACIFIC

   1.                    NAME: JOHN AIDMANN

   2.                    NAME: ah2006-cwy aaCUR(c)aeP:-ae* aaCUR*aa-&gt;&gt;

   3.                    NAME: ALEX

   4.                    NAME: ahzsp2612

   5.                    NAME: BAIBING (aka 2010lf)

   6.                    NAME: PAUL BAIRD

   7.                    NAME: c,* 1/2a:-o*   BAIYUN024

   8.                    NAME: MR SHIJIE CAO

   9.                    NAME: CHAH001

   10.                 NAME:  SHINE CHANG

   11.                 NAME: CHINA a** 62 VICTIMS

   12.                 NAME: STEVE CROFT

   13.                 NAME: RAJ D

   14.                 NAME: HAI DANG

   15.                 NAME: DAVIS

   16.                 NAME: MARGARET DOWN

   17.                 NAME: DEBORAH DUPRE

   18.                 NAME: JOHN FINCH &amp; FAMILY &amp; NEIGHBOURS

   19.                 NAME: JOSEPH GIBSON

   20.                 NAME: MIYOKO GOTO

   21.                 NAME: TAKAHIRO GOTO

   22.                 NAME: LISA H

   23.                 NAME: KYUNG-GUK HA

   24.                 NAME: hongzx

   25.                 NAME: ZHANG HUIMIN

   26.                 NAME: imary660610

   27.                 NAME: ae*YENe*-a jiaodian902c,**e*-aaa*"aa**aaCUR*

   28.                 NAME: THOMAS KOH

   29.                 NAME: TERUYUKI KURAHASHI

   30.                 NAME: GEORGE KWONG

   31.                 NAME: laofa99

   32.                 NAME: JUDITH LESUE

   33.                 NAME: LI GUAN-PING

   34.                 NAME:  WEI LI

   35.                 NAME: lijing6898

   36.                 NAME: lilylinxin

   37.                 NAME: MIKEY LIU

   38.                 NAME: XIN LIU

   39.                 NAME: MR WENLONG MA ((IVAN)

   40.                 NAME: BETH MACLEAN

   41.                 NAME: DAVID LUKE MENDHAM

   42.                 NAME: MOKUREN

   43.                 NAME: MOREEN PHILLIPS

   44.                 NAME: Pp

   45.                 NAME: pys624

   46.                 NAME: XIN ZHONG QING

   47.                 NAME: HAROLD B QUIBAN

   48.                 NAME: ANDREW ROBINSON

   49.                 NAME: MISS RUQUAN-GUO

   50.                 NAME: GARY D SIMMONS

   51.                 NAME: XIN WANG
   SHENe**a*"aa**e*"aa*(R)aa**e**a*YENae'*ae 3/4P:

   52.                 NAME: SOLEILMAVIS

   53.                 NAME: ELIZABETH ANNE SUTHERTON

   54.                 NAME: e**aaNOTNOTaa** tclwyy

   55.                 NAME: 3crobot

   56.                 NAME: TONY TU

   57.                 NAME: WORARAT TUMMALUCKSAMEE

   58.                 NAME: LIZA VELUZ

   59.                 NAME: MISS XIAN-SUN (RINOA)

   60.                 NAME: SHENGLIN YI

   61.                 NAME: "KELLY" TANG ZHAO

   62.                 NAME: 523062953@qq.com

   INDIA &amp; THE MIDDLE-EAST

   1.                    NAME: F. A.

   2.                    NAME: NADA ABBAS

   3.                    NAME: DEB CHAKRABORTY

   4.                    NAME: RAJ D

   5.                    NAME: AHMAD FANI

   6.                    NAME: RAHUL S JOSHI

   7.                    NAME: SIMRAN SINGH JUNEJA

   8.                    NAME: SHAFIQ KHAN

   9.                    NAME: SHIJU KRISHNA

   10.                 NAME: SURESH S. KUMAR

   11.                 NAME: TERUYUKI KURAHASHI

   12.                 NAME: MAHESHKUMAR

   13.                 NAME: OTILLIA

   14.                 NAME: PARIKSHIT PATHAK

   15.                 NAME: DR FEISAL SALIM

   RUSSIA

   1.                    NAME: AGAFFONOV Pavel

   2.                    NAME: ALBERT (D-'D-uD-^2N*N*D-,D- 1/2
   N*D-uN*D-^3D-uD-^1)

   3.                    NAME: ALEKSEYEV Igor Georgievich

   4.                    NAME: ALEVTINA Pawlowna Gudzenko

   5.                    NAME: BASHKOVSKIY Vladimir

   6.                    NAME: BELARUS a** over 14 CASES

   7.                    NAME: BOLOTSKIY Sergey

   8.                    NAME: BORODIENKO Vladimir

   9.                    NAME: DANILOV Victor Yegorovich

   10.                 NAME: DOMOJIROVA Tatyana Kondratyevna &amp; Family

   11.                 NAME: DRUZHININA Irina Vladimirovna &amp; Family

   12.                 NAME: EREMIN Andrey

   13.                 NAME: ERMAKOV Vladimir Petrovich

   14.                 NAME: FROLOV Sergey Timofejevich &amp; Family

   15.                 NAME: GALANIN Vitaly Ivanovich

   16.                 NAME: JUNOSHEVA Valentine

   17.                 NAME: KANDYBIN Edward Nikolayevich

   18.                 NAME: KATSERIKOVA Galina Ivanovna &amp; Family

   19.                 NAME: KOCHETOVA Natalia Ivanovna

   20.                 NAME: KONDRATOVA Svetlana Vasilyevna &amp; Family

   21.                 NAME: KOPYLOVA Liliy

   22.                 NAME: KOSTROVA Liy

   23.                 NAME: KOZLOV Valentin Alekseyevich &amp; Family

   24.                 NAME:  LEVINA Anna Petrovna

   25.                 NAME: PAVLOVSKY Grigoriy Fedorovich

   26.                 NAME: PETUKHOV Vitaly

   27.                 NAME: PETUKHOVA Alla Yakovlevna &amp; Family

   28.                 NAME: PRODIUS Gennady

   29.                 NAME: PROHANOV Jury

   30.                 NAME: PROHANOVA Margarita

   31.                 NAME: REDKINA Swetlana

   32.                 NAME: ROMANENKO Galina

   33.                 NAME: ROZANCHUK Margarita Ivanovna &amp; Family

   34.                 NAME: RYBIN Pyotr Lukich , RYBINA Alexandra Filippovna
   &amp; Family

   35.                 NAME: SAMSONOV Nick

   36.                 NAME: SEREBRYAKOVA Ljubov

   37.                 NAME: SOSHINA NA*dA*jidA* 

   38.                 NAME: DMITRY SUCHKOV

   39.                 NAME: TORIN Sergei

   40.                 NAME: TRETIAKOVA Tamara Vitalievna, son Mikhail &amp;
   Family

   41.                 NAME: VORONTSOV Vladimir Borisovich

   42.                 NAME: VORONTSOVA Swetlana

   43.                 NAME: ZYBINA Nadejida Pyotrovna

    
</description>
    <date>2008-09-22 03:12:28</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-11 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1277361_a-list-of-the-crimes-committed-by-the-nwo-nazis-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>tilachesis@gmail.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>norway@un.int</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1277592</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] Fwd: FW: [Customer Service/Technical Issues] Atricles	onWikileaks
</title>
    <description>   ill handle this

   On 12/8/2010 10:14 AM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     He is a paid member under a group account.

     On 12/8/2010 10:08 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       I can easily send out our last 2 or 3 articles to this guy. Who do I
       check with to see if he's a subscriber

       Writers, please see discussion below

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Marko Papic &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
       Date: Wed, 08 Dec 2010 10:06:56 -0600
       To: CT AOR&lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
       Cc: Sean Noonan&lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
       Subject: Re: [CT] Fwd: FW: [Customer Service/Technical Issues]
       Atricles on Wikileaks
       Definitely.

       I would send a request to writers to do this with ALL our wikileak
       pieces and send it to our U.S. gov't clients directly as a package.

       Show them that we care that the Administration is being stupid.

       On 12/8/10 10:04 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         if this guy is a paying customer we could reply and quickly edit out
         the word wikileaks with a find/replace in Word and send him our last
         two articles on it.  Might as well help a brother out. 
         On 12/8/10 10:02 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

           Speaking of closing the barn door after the horses have already
           run away...

           What insane overkill.

           -------- Original Message --------

            Subject: FW: [Customer Service/Technical Issues] Atricles on      
                     Wikileaks                                                
               Date: Wed, 8 Dec 2010 09:30:43 -0600                           
               From: Service &lt;service@stratfor.com&gt;                           
           Reply-To: Responses List &lt;responses@stratfor.com&gt;, Analyst List    
                     &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;                                  
                 To: &lt;responses@stratfor.com&gt;                                 

 Ryan Sims
 STRATFOR
 Global Intelligence
 T: 512-744-4087
 F: 512-744-0239
 ryan.sims@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com


 -----Original Message-----
 From: noreply@stratfor.com [mailto:noreply@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of
 vickie.reschke@conus.army.mil
 Sent: Wednesday, December 08, 2010 9:15 AM
 To: service@stratfor.com
 Subject: [Customer Service/Technical Issues] Atricles on Wikileaks

 vickie.reschke sent a message using the contact form at
 https://www.stratfor.com/contact.

 The US Army is restricted from viewing any articles with the word Wikileaks

 contained within.
 Is there any way you can replace the word from the article with something
 "Assange" or something else if the article doesn't actually reveal the
 classified content?
 We don't want to cause a security compromise on our system, but the fallout

 from the divulged data is a valid concern.
 In the mean time, is it possible to send me the article on "WikiLeaks and
 U.S. Critical Infrastructure" your site published yesterday?






         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

       --

       - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

       Marko Papic

       Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

       STRATFOR

       700 Lavaca Street - 900

       Austin, Texas

       78701 USA

       P: + 1-512-744-4094

       marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-08 17:17:13</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 03:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1277592_re-ct-fwd-fw-customer-service-technical-issues-atricles.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>writers@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>wright@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mike.marchio@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1279275</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored cyber
   warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing that, since you
   can conduct a cyber attack without associating with a hacker group and
   still deny / cover actions on behalf of the State. An individual attacking
   US computer assets from China, may be working by himself or on behalf of
   the Chinese government, but unless the US has other intel on the Chinese
   government's cyber warfare activities in order to corroborate there is
   little capability to distinguish.

   It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network operations do
   not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets from SIGINT would not
   directly help you track an individual responsible for hacking State run
   servers. In the past, I have turned to SIGINT organizations for
   collections on computer related material, but this was due to the US being
   behind in cyber warfare, and not knowing where to assign responsibility.
   However, this has changed dramatically in the last couple of years.

   Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As an extreme
   scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go to a Starbucks with
   free public wifi, and never attribute the online activity to something
   revealing (accessing personal email accounts, tweeting, entering personal
   information to the laptop, etc..), and begin hacking government email
   accounts then never use the laptop again. Unless LEA could get an accurate
   description of my appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible security
   cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

   Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to these
   enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied to specific
   computer-related activities because of the difficulty in identifying
   individuals.

   I think the most likely way for a "Anonymous cover" to be blown, would be
   the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a common participant in
   "Anonymous" activities, was working for a State? Anonymous has denounced
   state governments before, if that State agent organizes an attack amongst
   his IRC / Twitter buddies, what signs could a LEA look for to distinguish?

   On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a bit)

     1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything actually
     harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't, but i'm very
     doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first real case where they
     could do some minor damage--to individual people, not not to an
     organization or anything that would come as a serious or strategic
     threat. 

     2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is actually pretty
     good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as a cover, but that would be
     pretty easy to bungle, and could probably still be attributed if
     important enough to those agencies.  The recent attack on Sony actually
     brings this issue up- Whoever is calling themselves anonymous denies
     they did it.  And keep in mind how much they have claimed an publicized
     attacks in the past, even before they were carried out.  The attack on
     the Playstation Network was more sophisticated than anonymous' usual
     work (though potentially coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that
     distracted Sony's IT security).  But whoever did it, again, no real
     damage came of it.  Congress is holding hearings over data security, but
     this is no different than the OC groups stealing your credit card
     information.  LE will go after them, have some success, but the threat
     is not that large. 
     On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

       Link: themeData

       I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to have a
       broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no nothing, or
       almost nothing about what this group is and the threat it poses.
       Reviewing their list of attacks
       (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most of the
       cases, they are the "good" guys, sort of a Robin Hood of the internet
       . The interesting thing when it comes to their interactions with the
       cartels is the dubious role they play: at the same time they can be
       fighting crime by revealing cartel members/supporters, but they can
       also put lives in risk.

       However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by Anonymous.
       The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can conduct a cyber
       attack under "Anonymous" is worrisome.
       (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

       If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government websites,
       or if I am just a internet user, I would like to know more about these
       guys. Who they are? What are they interested in? How they operate? Who
       they have targeted so far? How can I defend myself from them? In what
       countries are they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use
       them to achieve any particular goal?

       On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

         nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else can
         build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they pose to
         innocent people caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing
         on journalists or taxi drivers they show little understanding of the
         situation.  This has long term implications in not just Mexico. 
         They don't consider the consequences of their actions and they act
         without understanding the environment.  It was the same when they
         released information on the Sony Playstation network to protest
         Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

         On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

           Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
           possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
           Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by Anonymous,
           threatens revealing personal information on cartels as well as
           states a member had been kidnapped. I could not find any sources
           outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being kidnapped.
           According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous
           Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting flyers in
           Veracruz as part of the Operation Paperstorm protest, although
           that is speculation.

           Link: themeData
           Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
           denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed
           out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
           Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked
           individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the
           most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
           the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing
           identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists
           who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los
           Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
           consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
           was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
           their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
           potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and
           hackers, presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels
           lashing out at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting
           on cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

           What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
           threat to Mexican cartels.
                o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
           media
                o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash
           out at cartels

           While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
           threat
                o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
           identifiable information on cartel members
                o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire
           on cartels
                o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
           communications, identifiable information on cartels members have
           to be considered in the realm of possibilities for
                       Anonymous
                       o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
           illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

           Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
           ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result,
           their understanding of cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous
           may act with confidence when sitting in front of a computer, but
           this may blind them to any possible retribution. They may not even
           know the impact of any online assault of cartels.
                o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
           will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
           individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
           drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
           halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not
           have a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
           Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &amp;
           Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
           consequences from this.
                o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
           are willing to go protect their operations.
                   o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                   o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
           community before, coercing computer science majors into working
           for them.
                   o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
           discovering hackers within Mexico.

            

           On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

             Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
             there are several issues to address and fix here.

             These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
             discussion:

                  o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine
             but we can't gloss over that fact
                  o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference
             between stealing bank records from government computers and
             overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                  o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
             information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
             kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
             talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
             politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
             going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
             killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
             operational details, because they acted as informants, because
             they exposed links with officials or because they somehow
             sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
             information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                  o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
             realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a
             measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity
             except for the technical ability by a very small number of its
             members to infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
             information. Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on
             a network that is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)?
             Where else could information be found? Government databases?
             Once we know what kind of information is accessible, we can also
             know more about the consequences of dissemination.
                  o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to
             trace back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of
             killings done by people who may not understand the difference
             between an anon hacker and a blogger.

             On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

               wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

               -------- Original Message --------

                Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                   Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                   From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
               Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                     To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

               you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need
               a lot more work

               You need to lay out:

               a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger
               section is unclear
               b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
               therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
               c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
               anything
               d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill
               anyone who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

               I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
               insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
               levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
               the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
               is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
               business online, in a protected fashion.

               Karen Hooper
               Latin America Analyst
               o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
               c: 512.750.7234
               STRATFOR
               www.stratfor.com
               On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

               On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

               Link: themeData

               Trigger

               Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
               Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?,
               lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
               denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
               released depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a
               screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent video release,
               Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels.
               Threats such as releasing identities of Mexican? American?
               taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who collude
               with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
               release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences.
               The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels
               and hackers, presents an unprecedented war front for the
               cartels. The vastly different operations of Anonymous and Los
               Zetas leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have
               little experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no
               experience with the cartels. I do not believe for a second
               that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                

               In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
               mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
               their demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be
               mentioned right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is
               threatening to hit back. Provide enough details so we
               understand who this guy is and why/how he was abducted. are
               not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing revealing
               information on cartel members and operations are true, cartels
               will likely respond with violence against individuals revealed
               as opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous members?.
               It also is likely that public disclosure of GOM officials who
               collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving
               the Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this
               means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
               effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against
               Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue
               their threats against any individual using online media WC....
               you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers
               here. against the cartels.

                

               The Battle Space

               Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
               realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
               of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
               geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
               exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
               are physical people tho live in the real world. They have
               names and addresses - although most of them are likely outside
               of MX.)  Anonymous' power base consists of their technical
               capabilities in hacking. Any information connected to the
               Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying
               the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's
               population could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of
               what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
               Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in
               revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't run
               operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money via
               e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on the web than
               the jihadists.)

               Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
               base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
               believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
               through the internet. This gives an opening for people
               disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
               dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience =
               troll. Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
               themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of serious IT
               capability. 

               The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has
               been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

               The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US
               and Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking
               to maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
               commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
               and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from
               insight. There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't
               have a similar capacity.  Their power base is built by large
               amounts of revenue and escalating brutal violence. Cartels
               like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing different types of
               threats. Cartels are always suffering at the hands of cartel
               on cartel violence. While battling each other, cartels still
               face arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to
               avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
               have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
               bloggers in order to cover details of their operations. ok...
               but that's kind of a red herrng for this discussion. You need
               to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't
               just assume they have no cyber presence.

                

               Anonymous' Weapons

               Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
               criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability
               to combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
               disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
               anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites
               in Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
               admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
               guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
               campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
               overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels view main
               stream media outlets and social media blogs as such a threat
               to their operations, that they have continued to target
               journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los
               Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on
               the body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
               denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive
               here, and it's not really addressing the subheading

               As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
               risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to
               suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing information they
               threaten to release. By releasing identities of individuals
               cooperating with Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life
               of those individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate
               sensitive information is limited by what is available via the
               Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
               should always be considered a possibility of an attack.
               However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the US
               governments computer networks, information available to
               Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy to acquire. 
               what are you trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

                

               Cartel's Defense

                           A counter response to the video? by the cartels
               has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a
               kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun
               addressing the threat posed by hackers so... how has there not
               been a counter response? also this undermines your statements
               above about how Anonymous is soley internet based, and
               underlines the vulnerabilities of associated members. How did
               they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that could very
               well give you some indication to the technical ability of the
               cartels . As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
               wide web , the cartels will face a number of challenges which
               rarely are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has
               whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You
               can assume (and we have good intel indicating that) they are
               working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening
               cartels, can operate in any region of the world. Personal
               information including locations is only available if a hacker
               chooses to divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy
               enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only work for
               Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
               online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or
               start employing hackers of their own under their payroll?
               Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                           Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
               Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
               help of computer science majors through personal threats has
               been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported
               where?.  Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence
               and drug trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of
               technical experts to help combat any threat by computer
               hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been
               demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable of
               identifying any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
               enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
               experience and resources than cartels, struggle to find
               hackers through investigations. A) How do you know they are
               not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm
               goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult to
               track down

                           In order to compete with an online foe, cartels
               will likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar
               with, brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
               operations within Mexico "still"? why would we assume they
               wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
               communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
               members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
               likely continue to be used to scare online media into
               submission i'm not really seeing the online
               media-international hacking group connection here.  The cruel
               manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer
               hackers have unlikely encountered before in their life.
               Whether the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence of
               Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels are able to
               seek out and capture members of the hacker group.. Or the
               Narcos could call the collective bluff and simply go on and
               shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 20:38:17</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1279275_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1280187</id>
    <title>B3 - ROMANIA/IMB - President Basescu says that Romania would apply
	for a stand-by agreement or flexible credit line after the current
	agreement ends
</title>
    <description>   Basescu tells Strauss Khan that he wants a long term relation with the
   IMF. He also said that after ending the current agreement (12.95 bn EUR,
   in a package of 19.95bn EUR with EBRD and WB) Romania would probably apply
   for a stand-by agreement or a flexible credit line. "We'll see together
   what is the solution that Romania needs because it is clear that while we
   are together, Romania is more credible."

   Marti, 30 martie 2010 / 12:32:46
   UPDATE: Traian Basescu ii spune lui Strauss-Kahn ca Romania vrea o
   colaborare pe termen lung cu FMI
   BUCURESTI (MEDIAFAX) - (adauga declaratii ale sefului statului si ale
   sefului FMI)
   Presedintele Traian Basescu i-a spus, marti, la Palatul Cotroceni,
   directorului general al Fondului Monetar International, Dominique
   Strauss-Kahn, ca Romania isi doreste o colaborare pe termen lung cu FMI.
   "Domnule presedinte, permiteti-mi sa va spun bun venit la Bucuresti. Este
   pentru noi si placerea de a va vedea aici, dar si bucuria de a primi un
   semnal foarte puternic al Fondului. Pentru sprijinul pe care ni l-ati
   acordat intr-un moment extrem de dificil, dar si pentru ceea ce veti face
   in viitor, eu va multumesc mult. (...) Din punctul nostru de vedere, dorim
   o cooperare pe termen lung cu FMI. Cand vom incheia acest acord, cel mai
   probabil va vom solicita un acord stand by de asistenta sau o linie de
   credit flexibila. Vom vedea impreuna ce solutie trebuie adoptata in ce
   priveste Romania, pentru ca este clar ca atat timp cat suntem intr-un
   acord cu domneavoastra, Romania este mai credibila", i-a spus Traian
   Basescu directorului general al FMI.
   "Pentru un francez a veni in Romania este mereu ceva special, pentru ca
   este singura parte din Europa de Est unde oamenii vorbesc franceza foarte
   bine si asta este o placere pentru mine. Noi incercam sa va ajutam cat de
   mult putem si cred ca suntem pe drumul cel bun. Desigur, situatia
   economica este dificila si poate sunt niste scapari in ce priveste
   domeniul fiscal si trebuie sa avem grija de aceste lucruri, dar cred ca
   lucrurile sunt in regula si, atata vreme cat considerati ca ajutorul
   nostru este binevenit, cred ca avem perspective bune", a replicat
   Strauss-Kahn.
   Basescu a mai aratat ca, pana nu vor fi finalizate reformele structurale,
   fie ca este vorba despre administratia publica, educatie, sistemul de
   sanatate, sistemul de protectie sociala, Romania are nevoie de un
   parteneriat cu FMI si Banca Mondiala, o cooperare pe termen lung intre
   Romania si FMI.
   "Cred ca este foarte intelept si suntem pregatiti pentru asta. Romania a
   fost in multe ocazii una dintre primele tari care au cerut asistenta din
   partea FMI si cred ca este foarte corect a incerca sa cauti asistenta FMI
   cat mai repede posibil decat sa astepti un timp indelungat", a spus
   directorul general al FMI, fiind intrerupt de seful statului, care a
   mentionat: "Inainte de a fi prea tarziu".
   "Exact, cateodata tarile prefera sa evite sa discute cu FMI, neintelegand
   ca noi suntem aici pentru a incerca sa ajutam si, cateodata, asteapta prea
   mult, iar situatia este apoi mult mai dificil de administrat. Nu este
   cazul Romaniei, care cred ca a fost foarte eficace si sa continuam cu
   programul la care lucram acum si la finalul acestui program o sa vedem cu
   Guvernul dumneavoastra care este cea mai buna cale de urmat", a continuat
   Strauss-Kahn.
   La randul sau, presedintele Basescu a admis ca, daca este analizat modul
   in care programul se desfasoara acum in Romania, in acest moment partea
   romana inca are "niste lucruri de rezolvat pentru a indeplini obligatiile
   asumate in acord", dar a afirmat Guvernul este extrem de determinat sa
   indeplineasca toate obligatiile.
   "Am niste dubii legate de veniturile la buget pe primele doua luni, dar in
   conditiile in care luna a treia este in acord cu asteptarile noastre, vom
   vedea cum merg lucrurile in urmatoarele luni si in aprilie-mai, cand
   misiunea de evaluare a FMI va fi in Bucuresti, vom stabili pasii viitori,
   oricum", a mai spus seful statului roman.
   Oficialul FMI a adaugat ca, in mod evident, de al inceputul acestui an,
   cheltuielile au fost mari, iar deficitul a crescut putin.
   "Dar vom vedea exact care este situatia la evaluarea care va avea loc
   peste cateva saptamani. Am avut in aceasta dimineata o discutie cu
   premierul si inteleg ca exista intr-adevar un angajament din partea
   autoritatilor romane pentru a lua deciziile necesare. Asa ca nu sunt
   ingrijorat", a conchis directorul general al FMI.
   In final, seful statului roman a apreciat ca Romania "simte opozitia la
   reforma".
   Din delegatia romana au mai facut parte Mihai Tanasescu, Mugur Isarescu si
   de consilierii prezidentiali Bujor Teodorescu si Sebastian Lazaroiu.
   Directorul general al FMI se va mai intalni cu presedintii celor doua
   Camere ale Parlamentului si se va adresa Legislativului.
   Strauss-Kahn este insotit de directorul Departamentului european al FMI,
   Marek Bella, de seful misiunii FMI pentru Romania, Jeffrey Franks, si de
   alti oficiali.
   Dominique Strauss-Kahn viziteaza Romania in cadrul unui turneu in Europa.
   Romania are un acord cu FMI pe doi ani, pentru 12,95 miliarde euro,
   pachetul total de finantare externa, de la Fond, Uniunea Europeana, BM si
   BERD, urmand sa ajunga la 19,95 miliarde euro.
   Gabriel Pecheanu, gabriel.pecheanu@mediafax.ro
</description>
    <date>2010-03-30 12:59:27</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1280187_b3-romania-imb-president-basescu-says-that-romania-would.html</permalink>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1281842</id>
    <title>[MESA] SYRIA/KSA/LEBANON - Quotes on the Syria-Arab League Peace
	Plan
</title>
    <description>    This includes highlights of the statements from Syrian media and two     
    different Saudi papers.  Just so we can keep track of the overt Saudi    
    sentiment regarding the Arab League plan and Syria.                      
    BBC Monitoring quotes from Middle East Arabic press for 8 Nov 11         
                                                                             
    The following is a selection of quotes from editorials and comment       
    published in the 8 November 2011 editions of Arabic language newspapers  
    in the Middle East and North Africa, as available to the BBC at 0800     
    gmt. Any material from the previous day is indicated as such. Quotes     
    from Palestinian newspapers and those published in the UK are being      
    filed separately.                                                        
                                                                             
                          Syria-Arab League peace plan                       
                                                                             
    Syria's Al-Thawrah: [govt-owned]: "Straightforward and without any       
    embarrassment and in the midst of steps taken by Syria to stop violence, 
    Washington publicly and arrogantly calls on Syrian armed men to not      
    'surrender their arms' in an attempt to foil efforts made to end the     
    fabricated crisis in Syria. What does this mean? It simply means it is   
    new evidence to direct US involvement in violence and sedition in Syria  
    and its encouragement of armed groups to go ahead with their criminal    
    acts against the Syrian people." (Commentary by Yunis Khalaf-            
    "Exceptional US sponsorship")                                            
                                                                             
    Saudi Al-Watan: [privately-owned, pro-govt]: "Time is gradually running  
    out for the Syrian regime and the gap is widening between the political  
    reforms that the Arab League has demanded to stop violence in Syria and  
    measures expected to be adopted by the emergency ministerial meeting of  
    Arab foreign ministers on 12 November... We warn the Syrian regime not   
    against protesters' call for international intervention but for regime's 
    pursuit to get Syria involved in a fierce Iran, particularly in light of 
    the standoff between Iran and the West over the former's nuclear         
    programme... The Arab League peace plan in Syria and Damascus' approval  
    of it are the last lifeboat for the Syrian regime. The Syrian regime     
    should resort to real national dialogue and recognize the opposition as  
    an influential part of the society." (Editorial- "Syria, racing against  
    time")                                                                   
                                                                             
    Saudi Al-Riyadh: [privately-owned, pro-govt]: "The Arab League will hold 
    a meeting on Syria on 12 November. However, does it have the mechanism   
    to put pressure to bear on Damascus? Let's suppose that an Arab League   
    resolution would be made suspending Syria's membership in the Arab       
    organization. I think the maximum the Arab League can do in this regard  
    is to move the issue of protecting the Syrian people to the UN Security  
    Council to take resolutions under an Arab umbrella... Evidence to        
    failure of the Arab League project is that it is objected to by the      
    Syrian opposition inside and outside the country. The Syrian opposition  
    claims that the Arab League gave the Syrian regime a chance to bluff     
    international public opinion... Let's see the Arab stance represented by 
    the Arab League. However, let's also think about the league's role in    
    Tunisian, Egyptian, Libyan, Yemeni and Syrian uprisings." (Editorial-    
    "Damascus, hiding true political motives")                               
                                                                             
    Lebanon's Al-Safir: [independent, leftist]: "The Syrian opposition       
    rushed yesterday into announcing that the Arab League peace plan on      
    Syria has failed. Moreover, it called yesterday for moving beyond Arab   
    solutions to the crisis; internationalization... Arabs and the           
    international community are monitoring the situation in Syria from a     
    distance and they don't have the desire or ability to intervene there.   
    The Syrian regime understands this fact very well... For many reasons,   
    the Syrian regime looks more self-confident because it believes that the 
    battle is in its final conclusive stages." (Commentary by Sati           
    Nur-al-Din- "Light at beginning of tunnel")                              
                                                                             
                                  Iran-Nuclear                               
                                                                             
    Qata r's Al-Watan: [privately-owned, pro-govt]: "It seems that the       
    Iranian nuclear crisis is on its way for escalation anew thanks to an    
    extensive Israeli propaganda campaign ahead of an IAEA report that is    
    expected to criticize Iran with harshest possible terms. As per leaked   
    information circulated in Israeli media, Western experts, who have       
    looked into the intelligence bits of the IAEA report, believe that Iran  
    has got the know-how and technology required to build a nuclear bomb     
    within months... It also seems that the IAEA under its new director      
    general Yukiya Amano would be stricter in dealing with Iran compared to  
    its former director general Muhammad al-Barad'i." (Commentary by Mazin   
    Hammad- "IAEA, Iranian bomb")                                            
                                                                             
    UAE's Al-Khalij: [indep,leftist]: "It seems that the most prominent      
    feature in the 'war of nerves' that is currently shaping in the media    
    about the possibility of dealing a unilateral Israeli military blow to   
    Iran in cooperation with the USA or Britain or other allies is that      
    Washington is officially avoiding any talk about this strike. US         
    President Obama just talked about need to put pressure on Tehran... The  
    least Obama needs ahead of next year's presidential polls is to take a   
    decision regarding war on Iran given the chronic economic crisis that    
    his country is facing, which makes it impossible for the USA to cover    
    the expenses of a fourth war." (Commentary by Ma'mun al-Husayni- "Israel 
    wars, exporting crises")                                                 
                                                                             
    Source: Quotes package from BBC Monitoring, in English 08 Nov 11         
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MECai wm                                                     

              A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011
</description>
    <date>2011-11-08 22:21:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1281842_-mesa-syria-ksa-lebanon-quotes-on-the-syria-arab-league.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>ashley.harrison@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1287547</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA/AZ/US/VZ/RUSSIA/TAIWAN - Erdogan's
 cancer, Turkish plan for Syria and more - TR325
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE: TR325 and his business partner
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Former NSC official in Turkey, adviser to Erdogan,
   energy expert negotiator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

   TR325's business partner has an old classmate friend who was the lead
   surgeon on Erdogan's most recent operation. He said that Erdogan has colon
   cancer, but they haven't seen the second biopsy results yet to see if it's
   metastasized. In the last operation, they cut out 20 cm of Erdogan's colon
   (I just looked up that the average colon is about 1.5m long.)  That's a
   really significant operation. Erdogan is not going to be able to travel
   for a while, and he's going to have to carry around with him a colonoscopy
   bag for at least 2-3 months.  The prognosis is not looking good, though.
   The surgeon said they were estimating 2 years for him.

   This is very likely going to cause major splits within the AKP.  Gul
   doesn't have much support.  Davutoglu is paranoid that everyone else is
   trying to undermine him (there's a definite competition between him and
   TR325.)  When I asked who Erdgogan trusts, two names were mentioned - Ali
   Babacan (Deputy PM) and Taner Yildiz (energy minister.)  Both sources were
   asking how the US is likely to react to this situation.  Would they try to
   back the military like the old days?  CHP is still very much divided. Both
   seemed to think the military won't be able to take advantage of the
   situation.

   On Syria - the conversation centered on how far Turkey is actually going
   to go.  TR325 explained that the Turkish plan is centered on civil war in
   Syria.  Officially, it's Turkey providing the main training,a rms and
   support to FSA. Unofficially, US and TUrkey are doing this together in
   deploying SOF for this mission.  Notice all the talk in the press now
   about civil war breaking out in Syria. This is the narrative Turkey and US
   want to build.  I pointed out that creating the conditions for civil war -
   actual neighborhood to neighborhood fighting - is still pretty difficult
   considering that the Alawite forces are still holding together, but he
   seemed to think that this can escalate within 2 months time. He also said
   without saying that they're working on making that happen. He acknowledges
   it'll be messy and it will take a lot of blood and time for a Sunni power
   to emerge in syria, but that this is the Turkish obligation.

   The Turkish plan to preempt the instability that would result from civil
   war conditions is to implement the buffer zone 5-40km into Syrian
   territory and set up refugee camps.  I asked what levers Iran and Syria
   have to get Turkey to back off in relation to PKK.  He said
   (half-jokingly) that Karilan is Turkey's man (ie. turkey can actually
   negotiate with him.)  But he said PKK third-in-command (still need to get
   this guy's name) answers to Syria and Iran. Turkey knows this very well
   and he says Syria and Iran are already making moves to threaten attacks
   via this faction.

   I'm left with a lot of questions --

   Given the instability that is likely to result within AKP over Erdogan's
   health, would Turkey really be making bold foreign policy moves, such as
   helping to create a civil war in Syria?

   Turkey appears very confident that Syria/Iran have the means to play the
   PKK card. Why risk that?

   Turkey knows they'll be dealing with a massive refugee crisis in Syria -
   why propel that situation?

   Some other points -

   TR325 believes AZ wiill be able to export 5-7bcm via ITGI for SDII. 
   Russia has its stake in Edison to keep a foothold in that route.  The rest
   he agrees is likely going to have to be shipped to Russia eventually since
   the Europeans aren't financing anything right now. He did say that SOCAR
   is flush with money right now and could actually put money down on these
   projects if they have the market demand and client base to do it.

   They were both asking me what is happening with Trinidad and Tobago. I
   told them I have no idea. They were asking because they are involved in a
   business deal to sell conventional subs to Trinidad and Tobago. They're
   assuming the US is preparing something for VZ.  They are also involved in
   similar submarine sales to Taiwan and Japan.
</description>
    <date>2011-12-10 20:04:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1287547_-alpha-insight-turkey-syria-az-us-vz-russia-taiwan-erdogan-s.html</permalink>
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    <files>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1288266</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   Brown

   On 10/24/11 11:50 AM, Morgan Kauffman wrote:

     If you're going to cover the vigilante/robin-hood aspect, I found this
     in today's sweeps: 
     http://arstechnica.com/business/news/2011/10/anonymous-takes-down-darknet-child-porn-site-on-tor-network.ars?utm_source=rss&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=rss
     and 
     http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2395175,00.asp#fbid=KvMufY_Mq3a

     They've got a sub-group that tries to hunt down child-abuse sites and
     users - last week they published a list of 1500 names of visitors to one
     site, in addition to performing a couple of DDoS attacks to the server.

     On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

       Link: themeData

       I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to have a
       broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no nothing, or
       almost nothing about what this group is and the threat it poses.
       Reviewing their list of attacks
       (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most of the
       cases, they are the "good" guys, sort of a Robin Hood of the internet
       . The interesting thing when it comes to their interactions with the
       cartels is the dubious role they play: at the same time they can be
       fighting crime by revealing cartel members/supporters, but they can
       also put lives in risk.

       However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by Anonymous.
       The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can conduct a cyber
       attack under "Anonymous" is worrisome.
       (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

       If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government websites,
       or if I am just a internet user, I would like to know more about these
       guys. Who they are? What are they interested in? How they operate? Who
       they have targeted so far? How can I defend myself from them? In what
       countries are they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use
       them to achieve any particular goal?

       On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

         nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else can
         build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they pose to
         innocent people caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing
         on journalists or taxi drivers they show little understanding of the
         situation.  This has long term implications in not just Mexico. 
         They don't consider the consequences of their actions and they act
         without understanding the environment.  It was the same when they
         released information on the Sony Playstation network to protest
         Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

         On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

           Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
           possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
           Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by Anonymous,
           threatens revealing personal information on cartels as well as
           states a member had been kidnapped. I could not find any sources
           outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being kidnapped.
           According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous
           Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting flyers in
           Veracruz as part of the Operation Paperstorm protest, although
           that is speculation.

           Link: themeData
           Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
           denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed
           out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
           Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked
           individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the
           most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
           the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing
           identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists
           who collude with criminal cartels. No mention of banks that accept
           their laundered money? That is when they would be a threat to
           their bottom line. They can always buy cabbies, cops, politicos
           and journos but tracing banks.  The hacker group demanded Los
           Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
           consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
           was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
           their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
           potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and
           hackers, presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels
           lashing out at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting
           on cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

           What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
           threat to Mexican cartels.
                o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
           media
                o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash
           out at cartels

           While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
           threat
                o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
           identifiable information on cartel members
                o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire
           on cartels
                o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
           communications, identifiable information on cartels members have
           to be considered in the realm of possibilities for
                       Anonymous
                       o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
           illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

           Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
           ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result,
           their understanding of cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous
           may act with confidence when sitting in front of a computer, but
           this may blind them to any possible retribution. They may not even
           know the impact of any online assault of cartels.
                o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
           will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
           individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
           drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
           halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not
           have a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
           Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &amp;
           Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
           consequences from this.
                o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
           are willing to go protect their operations.
                   o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                   o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
           community before, coercing computer science majors into working
           for them.
                   o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
           discovering hackers within Mexico.

            

           On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

             Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
             there are several issues to address and fix here.

             These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
             discussion:

                  o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine
             but we can't gloss over that fact
                  o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference
             between stealing bank records from government computers and
             overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                  o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
             information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
             kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
             talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
             politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
             going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
             killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
             operational details, because they acted as informants, because
             they exposed links with officials or because they somehow
             sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
             information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                  o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
             realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a
             measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity
             except for the technical ability by a very small number of its
             members to infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
             information. Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on
             a network that is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)?
             Where else could information be found? Government databases?
             Once we know what kind of information is accessible, we can also
             know more about the consequences of dissemination.
                  o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to
             trace back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of
             killings done by people who may not understand the difference
             between an anon hacker and a blogger.

             On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

               wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

               -------- Original Message --------

                Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                   Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                   From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
               Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                     To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

               you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need
               a lot more work

               You need to lay out:

               a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger
               section is unclear
               b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
               therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
               c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
               anything
               d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill
               anyone who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

               I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
               insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
               levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
               the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
               is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
               business online, in a protected fashion.

               Karen Hooper
               Latin America Analyst
               o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
               c: 512.750.7234
               STRATFOR
               www.stratfor.com
               On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

               On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

               Link: themeData

               Trigger

               Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
               Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?,
               lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
               denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
               released depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a
               screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent video release,
               Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels.
               Threats such as releasing identities of Mexican? American?
               taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who collude
               with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
               release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences.
               The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels
               and hackers, presents an unprecedented war front for the
               cartels. The vastly different operations of Anonymous and Los
               Zetas leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have
               little experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no
               experience with the cartels. I do not believe for a second
               that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                

               In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
               mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
               their demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be
               mentioned right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is
               threatening to hit back. Provide enough details so we
               understand who this guy is and why/how he was abducted. are
               not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing revealing
               information on cartel members and operations are true, cartels
               will likely respond with violence against individuals revealed
               as opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous members?.
               It also is likely that public disclosure of GOM officials who
               collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving
               the Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this
               means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
               effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against
               Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue
               their threats against any individual using online media WC....
               you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers
               here. against the cartels.

                

               The Battle Space

               Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
               realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
               of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
               geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
               exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
               are physical people tho live in the real world. They have
               names and addresses - although most of them are likely outside
               of MX.)  Anonymous' power base consists of their technical
               capabilities in hacking. Any information connected to the
               Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying
               the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's
               population could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of
               what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
               Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in
               revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't run
               operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money via
               e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on the web than
               the jihadists.)

               Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
               base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
               believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
               through the internet. This gives an opening for people
               disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
               dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience =
               troll. Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
               themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of serious IT
               capability. 

               The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has
               been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

               The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US
               and Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking
               to maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
               commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
               and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from
               insight. There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't
               have a similar capacity.  Their power base is built by large
               amounts of revenue and escalating brutal violence. Cartels
               like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing different types of
               threats. Cartels are always suffering at the hands of cartel
               on cartel violence. While battling each other, cartels still
               face arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to
               avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
               have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
               bloggers in order to cover details of their operations. ok...
               but that's kind of a red herrng for this discussion. You need
               to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't
               just assume they have no cyber presence.

                

               Anonymous' Weapons

               Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
               criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability
               to combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
               disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
               anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites
               in Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
               admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
               guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
               campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
               overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels view main
               stream media outlets and social media blogs as such a threat
               to their operations, that they have continued to target
               journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los
               Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on
               the body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
               denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive
               here, and it's not really addressing the subheading

               As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
               risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to
               suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing information they
               threaten to release. By releasing identities of individuals
               cooperating with Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life
               of those individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate
               sensitive information is limited by what is available via the
               Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
               should always be considered a possibility of an attack.
               However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the US
               governments computer networks, information available to
               Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy to acquire. 
               what are you trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

                

               Cartel's Defense

                           A counter response to the video? by the cartels
               has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a
               kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun
               addressing the threat posed by hackers so... how has there not
               been a counter response? also this undermines your statements
               above about how Anonymous is soley internet based, and
               underlines the vulnerabilities of associated members. How did
               they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that could very
               well give you some indication to the technical ability of the
               cartels . As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
               wide web , the cartels will face a number of challenges which
               rarely are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has
               whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You
               can assume (and we have good intel indicating that) they are
               working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening
               cartels, can operate in any region of the world. Personal
               information including locations is only available if a hacker
               chooses to divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy
               enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only work for
               Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
               online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or
               start employing hackers of their own under their payroll?
               Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                           Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
               Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
               help of computer science majors through personal threats has
               been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported
               where?.  Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence
               and drug trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of
               technical experts to help combat any threat by computer
               hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been
               demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable of
               identifying any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
               enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
               experience and resources than cartels, struggle to find
               hackers through investigations. A) How do you know they are
               not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm
               goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult to
               track down

                           In order to compete with an online foe, cartels
               will likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar
               with, brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
               operations within Mexico "still"? why would we assume they
               wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
               communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
               members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
               likely continue to be used to scare online media into
               submission i'm not really seeing the online
               media-international hacking group connection here.  The cruel
               manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer
               hackers have unlikely encountered before in their life.
               Whether the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence of
               Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels are able to
               seek out and capture members of the hacker group.. Or the
               Narcos could call the collective bluff and simply go on and
               shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

 --
 Sincerely,

 Marko Primorac
 Tactical Analyst
 marko.primorac@stratfor.com
 Tel: +1 512.744.4300
 Cell: +1 717.557.8480
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 18:59:47</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1288266_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1288283</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   I agree. I haven't seen any defining attributes of Anonymous as a group.
   They may not even know the identities of each other. There are several
   facebook / twitter Anonymous pages, which seem to be run by different
   individuals.

   What about defining Anonymous in terms of the individual? Instead of
   saying Anonymous attacking cartels, Individuals acting under the Anonymous
   name....

   -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents have access to,
   and doubt they have such information that provides any sort of existential
   threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 
   This is a problem with the threat assessment. Technically, anything cartel
   related (emails, online transactions, Mexican LEA information, etc.) would
   be available to a hacker, but we don't know if they have had access to
   this information, or if the hackers interested in harming cartels are
   capable. It's not even confirmed hackers have revealing information on
   cartel supporters which the video claims.

   On 10/24/11 1:11 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     Somehow we have to stop referring to 'anonymous' as a monolith.  They
     are a bunch of different people that essentially get together in an
     online-form of a mob to carry out some action. I'm not sure how to do
     this in writing consistently.  But let's start with shit like 'people
     joining Anonymous chatrooms and claiming to be part of the movement' or
     something like that. 

     Comments in green below.  This is coming together nicely. 

     On 10/24/11 11:19 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of
       these in the US?
        What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
       I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
       whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
       because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
       revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of
       understanding of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is
       expendable to cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of
       coercion.

       Anonymous does not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
       cartels.  mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of
       el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication
       as a tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable
       intelligence, the government will use it against the cartels. That's a
       physical threat, if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify
       that Anonymous can not directly effect physical security. Any impact
       to the cartel in revealing information will be from actions of rival
       cartels or the GoM. They may release information on a given politician
       being linked to the cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the
       politician will feel an impact (Just because Anonymous says there is a
       link, doesn't make it true). It would be up to others to take action. 
       I think the way you have it worded in the above sentence is good. 
       Follow with a sentence explaining the rest of it, because readers will
       have the same question Karen did.  Something like 'Rather, the threat
       to cartels would come in what information anonymous could expose that
       is useful to their enemies'

       Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online
       activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to
       conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't know how
       much, but we do know they will have some points of operational
       vulnerability I have heard of cartels doing business online, but don't
       have specific examples which could be used in assessing their
       vulnerability online.

       by "no consequences" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired,
       arrested or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I
       should say, there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out
       politicians as colluding.
       On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
         c: 512.750.7234
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
         Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
         possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
         Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by people using
         the banner of Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on
         cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
         find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual
         being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico
         and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual
         posting flyers ['critical of cartels'?] in Veracruz as part of the
         Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation. [this is
         good and will be enough information to go with, though you'll need a
         quick explanation of what 'operation paperstorm' is.  Adding
         something in the explaining the flyers will work]

         Link: themeData
         Anonymous, a decentralized hacker collective  famous for distributed
         denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government and corporate
         websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
         statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
         depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on
         October 10? With the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold
         threats towards the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as
         releasing identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
         journalists who collude with criminal cartels do they specify
         whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of these in the US?
          What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
         group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
         face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
         was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
         their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
         potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
         presents a unique threat towards TCOs [If TCO= transnational
         criminal organization, it's not really unique.  Many such
         organizations do their crimes online, and have been hacked in
         response--like the nigerian princess scams. I think you should just
         say it's a unique threat to DTOs] . We know of cartels lashing out
         at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels
         dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

         What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
              o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
         threat to Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a
         gun to the head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for
         the using publication as a tool to force government action. If you
         reveal actionable intelligence, the government will use it against
         the cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
              o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
         media
              o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out
         at cartels

         While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
         threat, if it had access to certain types of information:

                 -The threat is in the information they can expose that may
     be of use to any cartel enemies.  That could be to the government or
     other cartels or even local citizens (the last one may be a stretch, but
     i could imagine someone discrediting cartel members in the eyes of the
     public).

              o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims tocut possess
         identifiable information on cartel members 
              o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
         cartels [cut this part here, and make the point at the end of this
         section/paragraph]
              o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
         identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in
         the realm of possibilities for
                     Anonymous
                     o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
         illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels
         are known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We
         don't know how much, but we do know they will have some points of
         operational vulnerability

        -They claim to have information on those that collude with cartels 
     (use the stuff you have above].  Releasing such information could hurt
     cartels' support networks, but most of these people are also easily
     replaceable. 
                 -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents
     have access to, and doubt they have such information that provides any
     sort of existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 

         Most Anonymous hackers are likely far removed from the ultra-violent
         world of drug trafficking in Mexico, but it's quite possible that
         some of its members in this campaign are in Mexico and opposed to
         the violence [or something like that.  my limited understanding is
         there are still activist crusader-types in Mexico, yeah?  it seems
         very possible those with a bit of time or computer skills could have
         joined up with anonymous] . As a result, their understanding of
         cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous members in other
         countries may act with confidence when sitting in front of a
         computer, but this may blind them to any possible retribution. They
         may not even know the impact of any online assault of cartels.  [the
         part below and above is written rather normatively.  We need to take
         that out.  just state the facts]
              o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
         will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
         individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
         drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
         halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not have
         a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
         Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &amp;
         Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
         consequences from this. by "no consequences" what exactly do you
         mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and that happens all
         the time.
              o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
         are willing to go protect their operations.
                 o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                 o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
         community before, coercing computer science majors into working for
         them.
                 o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
         discovering hackers within Mexico.
         need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply
         publishing tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the
         same camp as the bloggers  [yes, i think it needs to be clear that
         their damage will be similar to what bloggers or wikileaks can
         do--limited.  But maybe more a danger to themselves, since they are
         no longer challenging governments, but criminal organizations]

          

         On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

           Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
           there are several issues to address and fix here.

           These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
           discussion:

                o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but
           we can't gloss over that fact
                o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference
           between stealing bank records from government computers and
           overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
           information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
           kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
           talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
           politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
           going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
           killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
           operational details, because they acted as informants, because
           they exposed links with officials or because they somehow sullied
           the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of information is
           damaging to the cartels themselves?
                o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
           realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure
           of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for
           the technical ability by a very small number of its members to
           infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal information.
           Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on a network that
           is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
           information be found? Government databases? Once we know what kind
           of information is accessible, we can also know more about the
           consequences of dissemination.
                o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
           back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings
           done by people who may not understand the difference between an
           anon hacker and a blogger.

           On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

             wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

             -------- Original Message --------

              Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                 Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                 From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
             Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                   To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

             you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a
             lot more work

             You need to lay out:

             a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section
             is unclear
             b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
             therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
             c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
             d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone
             who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

             I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
             insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
             levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
             the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
             is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
             business online, in a protected fashion.

             Karen Hooper
             Latin America Analyst
             o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
             c: 512.750.7234
             STRATFOR
             www.stratfor.com
             On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

             On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             Link: themeData

             Trigger

             Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
             Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed
             out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
             denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released
             depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a screen?
             exactly when?.  With the most recent video release, Anonymous
             makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels. Threats such as
             releasing identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
             politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels.
             The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped
             member otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
             between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
             unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly different
             operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
             Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
             believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
             not believe for a second that the cartels have no experience
             with hackers.

              

             In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned
             as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their
             demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned
             right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening
             to hit back. Provide enough details so we understand who this
             guy is and why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous'
             claims of possessing revealing information on cartel members and
             operations are true, cartels will likely respond with violence
             against individuals revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you
             mean Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public
             disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force the
             GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i
             don't understand what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten
             Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
             against Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will
             continue their threats against any individual using online media
             WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about
             bloggers here. against the cartels.

              

             The Battle Space

             Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
             realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
             of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
             geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
             exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
             are physical people tho live in the real world. They have names
             and addresses - although most of them are likely outside of MX.)
              Anonymous' power base consists of their technical capabilities
             in hacking. Any information connected to the Internet is
             vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of
             individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population
             could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
             has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big
             company with a website that brings in revenue, but it does not
             really matter if you don't run operations on the web. Los Z
             don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are also far less
             dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

             Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
             base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
             believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
             through the internet. This gives an opening for people
             disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
             dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll.
             Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
             themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of serious IT
             capability. 

             The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been
             from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

             The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
             Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
             maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
             commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
             and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight.
             There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar
             capacity.  Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue
             and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
             experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels are
             always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence.
             While battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law
             Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in
             the flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted media
             outlets. Murdering journalists and online bloggers in order to
             cover details of their operations. ok... but that's kind of a
             red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus on the
             possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
             have no cyber presence.

              

             Anonymous' Weapons

             Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
             criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
             combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
             disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
             anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites in
             Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
             admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
             guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
             campaign by technically elite individuals can not be overlooked
             should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream media
             outlets and social media blogs as such a threat to their
             operations, that they have continued to target journalists and
             bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was placed
             with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the body of a
             blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce cartels
             on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not
             really addressing the subheading

             As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
             risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest
             Anonymous is capable of possessing information they threaten to
             release. By releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
             Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
             individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
             information is limited by what is available via the Internet.
             Government computers connected to the Internet should always be
             considered a possibility of an attack. However, as with the
             compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer
             networks, information available to Mexico's intelligence
             collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to
             say here? This isn't clear at all

              

             Cartel's Defense

                         A counter response to the video? by the cartels has
             yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped
             member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the
             threat posed by hackers so... how has there not been a counter
             response? also this undermines your statements above about how
             Anonymous is soley internet based, and underlines the
             vulnerabilities of associated members. How did they find teh
             Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well give you
             some indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
             Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the
             cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed
             for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies
             dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and
             we have good intel indicating that) they are working on
             disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can
             operate in any region of the world. Personal information
             including locations is only available if a hacker chooses to
             divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
             figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous. Cartels
             are only capable of dealing with their online enemy, if they can
             physically reach out to them. Or start employing hackers of
             their own under their payroll? Stranger things have happened,
             Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                         Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
             Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
             help of computer science majors through personal threats has
             been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported where?. 
             Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence and drug
             trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of technical
             experts to help combat any threat by computer hackers.  While
             identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it
             is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
             operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies such
             as the FBi, with far more technical experience and resources
             than cartels, struggle to find hackers through investigations.
             A) How do you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they
             kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are
             equally difficult to track down

                         In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
             likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with,
             brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
             operations within Mexico "still"? why would we assume they
             wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
             communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
             members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
             likely continue to be used to scare online media into submission
             i'm not really seeing the online media-international hacking
             group connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
             inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
             encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of cartel
             violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to be
             seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of
             the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff
             and simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can
             inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 20:50:49</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1288283_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tristan.reed@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1290168</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else can build
   off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they pose to innocent
   people caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing on journalists
   or taxi drivers they show little understanding of the situation.  This has
   long term implications in not just Mexico.  They don't consider the
   consequences of their actions and they act without understanding the
   environment.  It was the same when they released information on the Sony
   Playstation network to protest Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a
   point. 

   On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing possible
     cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat Anonymous can pose
     to cartels. The video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing
     personal information on cartels as well as states a member had been
     kidnapped. I could not find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of
     the individual being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites
     (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an
     individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the Operation
     Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

     Link: themeData
     Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
     denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed out at
     drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
     criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked individual
     addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the most recent
     video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels
     in Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers, police,
     politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The
     hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member
     otherwise face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming
     November 5th was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
     reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met.
     The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
     presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out at
     online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing
     with any headaches from hackers before. 

     What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
          o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat to
     Mexican cartels.
          o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online media
          o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out at
     cartels

     While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a threat
          o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess identifiable
     information on cartel members
          o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
     cartels
          o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
     identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in the
     realm of possibilities for
                 Anonymous
                 o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
     illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

     Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the ultra-violent
     world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result, their understanding of
     cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when
     sitting in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
     retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online assault of
     cartels.
          o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will
     cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are
     forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are often
     victims of extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the
     identity of these individuals will not have a significant impact on
     cartel                   operations. Politicans have been accused of
     working with cartels (Guerrero &amp; Veracruz' governor) before, however
     there has yet to be any consequences from this.
          o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are
     willing to go protect their operations.
             o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
             o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science community
     before, coercing computer science majors into working for them.
             o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
     discovering hackers within Mexico.

      

     On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

       Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there
       are several issues to address and fix here.

       These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
       discussion:

            o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but we
       can't gloss over that fact
            o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference between
       stealing bank records from government computers and overloading
       www.loszetas.com main page.
            o     There's no thought out process of what sort of information
       could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is kept online and
       accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
       identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops, politicians and
       businessmen who need to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
       Think about why the bloggers and media were killed in previous
       instances. Was it because they revealed operational details, because
       they acted as informants, because they exposed links with officials or
       because they somehow sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what
       kind of information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
            o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
       realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of
       damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the
       technical ability by a very small number of its members to infiltrate
       certain networks and databases and steal information. Now what kind of
       information would a cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
       internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could information be found?
       Government databases? Once we know what kind of information is
       accessible, we can also know more about the consequences of
       dissemination.
            o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
       back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done by
       people who may not understand the difference between an anon hacker
       and a blogger.

       On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

         wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

         -------- Original Message --------

          Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
             Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
             From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
         Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
               To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

         you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a lot
         more work

         You need to lay out:

         a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section is
         unclear
         b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
         therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
         c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
         d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone who
         breaches their systems or exposes their connections

         I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
         insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels
         of sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of
         cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason to
         assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
         protected fashion.

         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
         c: 512.750.7234
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

         On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

         Link: themeData

         Trigger

         Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
         Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed out
         at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
         Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released depicting...?
         a person talking? a voice? words on a screen? exactly when?.  With
         the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
         the criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of
         Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
         journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker group
         demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
         consequences. The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal
         cartels and hackers, presents an unprecedented war front for the
         cartels. The vastly different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas
         leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have little
         experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no experience
         with the cartels. I do not believe for a second that the cartels
         have no experience with hackers.

          

         In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
         day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of
         releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up
         front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back.
         Provide enough details so we understand who this guy is and why/how
         he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing
         revealing information on cartel members and operations are true,
         cartels will likely respond with violence against individuals
         revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous
         members?. It also is likely that public disclosure of GOM officials
         who collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving the
         Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this means. You
         mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel
         will be able to retaliate against Anonymous remains unanswered .
         However, cartels will continue their threats against any individual
         using online media WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not
         talking about bloggers here. against the cartels.

          

         The Battle Space

         Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
         realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of
         the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical
         boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in
         cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They are physical people
         tho live in the real world. They have names and addresses - although
         most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power base
         consists of their technical capabilities in hacking. Any information
         connected to the Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers.
         (Identifying the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst of
         Mexico's population could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of
         what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
         Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in revenue,
         but it does not really matter if you don't run operations on the
         web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are also far
         less dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

         Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base
         consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe
         themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the
         internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
         and everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme
         goes, anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web
         of people who identify themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of
         serious IT capability. 

         The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been from
         targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

         The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
         Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
         maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
         commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money and
         issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight. There
         is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity.
         Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue and escalating
         brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing
         different types of threats. Cartels are always suffering at the
         hands of cartel on cartel violence. While battling each other,
         cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels
         wish to avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
         have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
         bloggers in order to cover details of their operations. ok... but
         that's kind of a red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus
         on the possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume
         they have no cyber presence.

          

         Anonymous' Weapons

         Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
         criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
         combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating
         sensitive information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel
         statements via social media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean
         so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
         cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance of a
         targeted information operations campaign by technically elite
         individuals can not be overlooked should not be underestimated.
         Cartels view main stream media outlets and social media blogs as
         such a threat to their operations, that they have continued to
         target journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los
         Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the
         body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce
         cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not
         really addressing the subheading

         As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks
         disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest Anonymous
         is capable of possessing information they threaten to release. By
         releasing identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
         cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those individuals.
         Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive information is limited
         by what is available via the Internet. Government computers
         connected to the Internet should always be considered a possibility
         of an attack. However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the
         US governments computer networks, information available to Mexico's
         intelligence collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you
         trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

          

         Cartel's Defense

                     A counter response to the video? by the cartels has yet
         to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped member by
         Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed
         by hackers so... how has there not been a counter response? also
         this undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is soley
         internet based, and underlines the vulnerabilities of associated
         members. How did they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that
         could very well give you some indication to the technical ability of
         the cartels . As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
         wide web , the cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely
         are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole
         agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume
         (and we have good intel indicating that) they are working on
         disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in
         any region of the world. Personal information including locations is
         only available if a hacker chooses to divulge it or if the subject
         of the attack is savvy enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only
         work for Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
         online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
         employing hackers of their own under their payroll? Stranger things
         have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                     Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
         Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help of
         computer science majors through personal threats has been reported
         in the past where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels
         operate in the world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they
         will likely need the assistance of technical experts to help combat
         any threat by computer hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside
         of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable
         of identifying any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
         enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
         experience and resources than cartels, struggle to find hackers
         through investigations. A) How do you know they are not in Mexico?
         (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not
         all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                     In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
         likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute
         force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within
         Mexico "still"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals
         with alleged connections to hacker communities will likely be
         targeted and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and
         public display of violence will likely continue to be used to scare
         online media into submission i'm not really seeing the online
         media-international hacking group connection here.  The cruel
         manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer hackers
         have unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
         cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to
         be seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of
         the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff and
         simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 17:22:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1290168_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>colby.martin@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1290702</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION - What does a No-Fly Zone/Buffer Zone over Syria Mean?
</title>
    <description>   Is the no-fly zone concept about the entire country, or just a buffer area
   near turkey? Very different types of enforcement needed for those. Think
   the localized nfz's in Iraq years back. 
   As for what Assad is doing in regards to the Arab league, if he has been
   given until the 18th to implement, why not have a surge in the crackdown,
   highlight the significant force differential between the military and the
   opposition, and then offer the opposition a way out, or at least some of
   them. Ten you can get most of the street protests done, you can appease
   the AL (for whatever that is worth), and you can make it clear that you
   win. And if the surge doesn't bring the opposition elements fractured and
   begging to the table, ignore the AL and keep the battle going. 

   On Nov 8, 2011, at 12:47 PM, Michael Wilson &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
   wrote:

     The larger political shift is something I had wanted to discuss in the
     meeting. Now I'm not saying Turkey is going to escalate matters, but we
     should play devil's advocate with ourselves and ask some questions

     Arab league (meaning the states that comprise the AL) have given Syria
     til around the 18th to implement the peace plan. He is not going to do
     that. So the question is what do those states even get from this plan in
     the first place?

     Are they going to use Syria's failure to comply to move to closer to
     actually doing something?

     In the diplomatic/propoganda war they are "supporting" the FSA army
     which has minimum 70 people or exaggerated maximum 15K. The saudis are
     leaking plans (again) the Turkey will do a buffer region, while when
     DAvutoglu was asked recently whether he would or not he left the door
     open it

     Way to answer that I guess is to see what Turkey and KSA are actually
     thinking on Syria. Do they think he will survive or fall? If survive do
     they try to make nice? Do they try to make him fall? If they think he
     will fall, do they help it along or just wait? Do they have any
     capabilities in the first place? Are they just playing to domestic
     politics or preparing for the worst

     I feel like we've said they are waiting to see what happens and
     preparing for the worst. But that just seems so passive, wouldnt they be
     looking more ahead than that? At what do they make the decision that he
     is or isnt staying. After all according to Reva's piece coming out its
     looking more and more like he wont fall, so do they adjust to that?

     OS articles below

     Qatar calls for Arab League to meet again on Syria

     http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/06/us-syria-arabs-idUSTRE7A514Y20111106
     CAIRO | Sun Nov 6, 2011 9:28am EST
     (Reuters) - Qatar's prime minister called for Arab states to meet next
     Saturday to discuss the Syrian government's failure to take steps to
     solve its crisis, Egypt's official news agency MENA reported.

     "Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim, the Qatari Prime Minister, called for an
     emergency Arab League council meeting at foreign minister level next
     Saturday to look at the latest developments in Syria," MENA said.

     The meeting would discuss "the continuing violence and the government's
     failure to stick to its obligations under the Arab Action Plan to solve
     the crisis in Syria," it said.

     League circulates Syria''s reply to Arab plan

     http://www.kuna.net.kw/NewsAgenciesPublicSite/ArticleDetails.aspx?id=2201290&amp;Language=en

     Politics  11/7/2011 3:43:00 PM
      
     CAIRO, Nov 7 (KUNA) -- The Arab League received on Monday a letter from
     Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Al-Muallem that includes measures taken by
     the government to implement the Arab action plan to resolve the crisis
     in Syria.
     The League's Deputy Secretary General Ambassador Ahmad Ben Hilli said in
     a statement today that the League has circulated the letter on all
     Member States right after it received it.
     He said the letter tackled procedures carried out by the Syrian
     government to implement the Arab initiative.
     Qatar, as current President of the Arab Ministerial Council and
     Committee on the resolution of the Syrian crisis, has called for an
     emergency session next Saturday to discuss the situation developments in
     Syria in light of continuing violence.
     The Committee is expected to convene an emergency meeting late on Friday
     in Cairo to discuss the situation prior to the Council meeting the next
     day. (end) mfm.rg.tg KUNA 071543 Nov 11NNNN

     US: Syrian broken promises will increase pressure on regime
     Nov 3, 2011, 19:51 GMT

     http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/middleeast/news/article_1672923.php/US-Syrian-broken-promises-will-increase-pressure-on-regime
      
     Washington - The Syrian regime will become increasingly isolated if it
     continues to make and break promises to end the violence against its
     citizens, the United States said Thursday as security forces reportedly
     killed more than 20 people.
     'It's now incumbent on the Assad regime to prove it - first to the Arab
     League, and secondly to the larger international community - that it
     meant what it said when it committed to this deal,' State Department
     Spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said a day after Syria agreed on a deal with
     the Arab League to end the violence.
     'The Arab League will obviously draw its own conclusions if today,
     tomorrow, the next day, all of these promises that were made are again
     broken.'
     The number of countries that have pressured Syria to no avail will
     continue to lose the regime friends and increase the pressure on
     Damascus, she said.
     'We will predict that if (Assad) doesn't meet his promises to the Arab
     League, the Arab League is going to feel that they had promises made,
     promises broken, and they're going to have to react,' she said.

     Syria urges insurgents to turn selves in for amnesty

     http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/syria-urges-insurgents-to-turn-selves-in-for-amnesty/

     04 Nov 2011 13:08

     Source: reuters // Reuters

     BEIRUT, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Syria has called on insurgents to turn
     themselves into authorities within one week starting on Saturday to
     qualify for an amnesty, state television said on Friday.

     "The interior ministry calls on citizens who carried weapons, sold them,
     delivered them, transported them or funded buying them, and did not
     commit crimes, to hand themselves into the nearest police station," it
     said.

     "The interior ministry assures that those who turn themselves in ...
     will then be freed immediately and it will be considered as a general
     amnesty," it said.

     President Bashar al-Assad is confronting a popular revolt against 41
     years of rule by his family. The protest movement has been largely
     peaceful, but a nascent armed insurgency has emerged in some restive
     regions. (Reporting by Mariam Karouny; Editing by Mark Heinrich)

     Syria breaking commitments to Arab peace plan: France
     French government condemn Syrian security forces crackdown on peaceful
     protesters saying that Syria is breaking its commitments to an Arab
     League peace plan by continuing using violence against opposition
     AFP , Friday 4 Nov 2011
     http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/25944/World/Region/Syria-breaking-commitments-to-Arab-peace-plan-Fran.aspx

     France said Friday that Syria was breaking its commitments to an Arab
     League peace plan by continuing a deadly crackdown on protesters and
     cast doubt on President Bashar al-Assad's dedication to the deal.

     "The continuing repression can only strengthen the international
     community's doubts about the Syrian regime's sincerity to implement the
     Arab League peace plan," the French foreign ministry's deputy spokesman,
     Romain Nadal, told journalists.

     "We understand that at least 20 peaceful protesters were killed by
     security forces yesterday in Syria," he said.

     "The continuing repression is completely contrary to the commitments
     given by the Syrian regime to the Arab League."

     Syrian troops killed five civilians in protest centres on Friday as
     demonstrators took to the streets nationwide to test the regime's
     commitment to the Arab peace deal.

     Twenty civilians had been killed on Thursday -- the first day the
     hard-won agreement aimed at ending nearly eight months of bloodshed came
     into effect.

     The peace plan calls on Assad to withdraw security forces from protest
     hubs and engage in a national dialogue with his opponents.

     But Assad's opponents are sceptical about his readiness to rein in a
     brutal crackdown that the United Nations says has cost more than 3,000
     lives since mid-March.

     Turkish, Qatari ministers meet in Istanbul
     During the meeting, Ahmet Davutoglu and Khalid bin Muhammad al-Atiyah
     debated the agreement between Syrian administration and Arab League.
     http://www.worldbulletin.net/index.php?aType=haber&amp;ArticleID=81189

     Turkish foreign minister met Qatari minister of state for foreign
     affairs in Istanbul on Thursday.

     During the meeting, Ahmet Davutoglu and Khalid bin Muhammad al-Atiyah
     debated the agreement between Syrian administration and Arab League.

     Davutoglu briefed al-Atiyah on his meetings with Sudan's Foreign
     Minister Ali Ahmed Karti and Arab League's Secretary General Nabil
     al-Arabi.

     Al-Atiyah is visiting Turkey to hold talks regarding developments in
     Syria. He briefed Davutoglu on recent regional developments,
     particularly talks between Arab League and Syria.

     Arab League and Syrian administration have reached an agreement on
     ending violence in Syria as soon as possible and releasing people who
     were arrested during revolt against the government.

     Syria: Unofficial parties in Arab countries a**funding terroristsa**

     http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=328613

     November 2, 2011

     Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Moqdad accused on Tuesday
     unofficial Turkish, Lebanese, Jordanian and Saudi parties of funding
     a**terrorists in Syria.a**

     a**We do not want to say that the Saudi, Turkish, Lebanese and Jordanian
     governments are funding armed groups [in Syria], but we think that
     unofficial parties from these countries are funding [terrorists in
     Syria]. We request these countries to not allow this happen,a** he told
     the Russia Today channel.

     Moqdad also said that there are parties that want to incite a civil war
     in Syria and that a**these parties are Muslim extremists, Salafis and
     drug dealers,a** adding that such parties aim to destabilize Syria.

     The Syrian official also slammed Turkey following its recent statements
     on the Syrian situation and said that a**no one has the righta** to
     interfere in Syrian affairs.

     Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday that Ankara
     a**will not stay silenta** on Syria.

     Asked about UN reports that 3,000 have been killed since anti-regime
     protests began in mid-March, Moqdad said: a**Some international
     organizations have lost their credibility because they see events with
     one eye. These organizations failed to mention that Syria has lost 1,150
     security and army members.a**

     This is a day old, but was included in Grinstead's intsum this morning.
     Just want people to see it so that everyone knows that technically,
     Syria has not yet violated the terms of the AL agreement. They have two
     more weeks of killing spree allowed before they will technically be in
     violation.
     They're planning to hold the negotiations in Cairo, too, according to
     the AL deputy sec gen. Over the next week or so we should see
     preparations made for who exactly is going to attend. [BP]
     Arab League gives Syria 15 days to implement proposal
     Nov 3, 2011, 22:05 GMT
     http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/middleeast/news/article_1672949.php/Arab-League-gives-Syria-15-days-to-implement-proposal
     Cairo - Arab League Deputy Secretary-General Ahmad Ben Hali said
     Thursday that Syrian authorities have 15 days to implement provisions of
     an Arab League peace proposal before dialogue can kick off between the
     regime and the opposition.
     'The Arab League proposal is still in its initial stage,' Ben Hali told
     the Dubai-based Al Arabiya television.
     He added that dialogue between Syrian authorities and the opposition
     'will take place at the Arab League's headquarters and under its
     auspices.'
     Syria on Wednesday fully accepted an Arab League plan to end nearly
     eight months of bloodshed in the country, but on Thursday Syrian
     security forces killed 20 people and wounded 50 others in a new wave of
     crackdown against pro-democracy protesters.
     The Arab League plan forsees a complete halt to the violence, the
     release of protesters who have been detained since February, the
     withdrawal of forces from areas where there have been armed clashes, and
     granting access to delegates from the 22-member body and the
     international media.
     More than 3,000 people have been killed, among them 187 children, in the
     clampdown the Syrian government has been carrying out against protesters
     since the uprising started in mid-March, according to UN estimates.

     Arab League says Syria approves Arab plan
     Wed Nov 2, 2011 4:29pm GMT
      http://af.reuters.com/article/egyptNews/idAFWEA102020111102?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=egyptNews&amp;utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FAfricaEgyptNews+%28News+%2F+Africa+%2F+Egypt+News%29&amp;utm_content=Google+Reader&amp;sp=true

     CAIRO Nov 2 (Reuters) - The Arab League said on Wednesday the Syrian
     government had approved an Arab plan for dialogue with the opposition
     and steps to end seven months of bloodshed, according to a League
     statement released during a ministerial meeting in Cairo.

     "The Arab League welcomes the Syrian government's agreement to the Arab
     plan," the statement said, adding that it "emphasised the need for the
     immediate, full and exact implementation of the articles in the plan."

     "The Arab committee (overseeing the plan) is responsible for submitting
     periodic reports to the ministerial council of the Arab League on the
     progress of carrying out the plan," it said. (Reporting by Ayman Samir;
     Writing by Edmund Blair)

     All of the Asharq al awsat articles that are talking about Turkey
     perhaps preparing a buffer article reference comments Davutoglu made

     I am pretty sure they are talking about this FT interview from Nov 1.
     See bolded part

     Turkey hardens stance against Syria

     November 1, 2011 5:11 pm
     http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f1438150-049e-11e1-ac2a-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1d82Vwk3y
     By Daniel Dombey in Istanbul

     Turkey has signalled possible support for a buffer zone to protect
     Syrian civilians if Damascus continues its crackdown on democracy
     protests, as tensions rise between the two former strategic partners.

     Ahmet Davutoglu, Turkeya**s foreign minister, told the Financial Times
     that Ankara was preparing targeted sanctions against Damascus and left
     the door open for more drastic steps at a later date, such as a buffer
     zone or a no fly-zone on Syrian territory.

     a**The Syrian regime is attacking the Syrian people, which is
     unacceptable,a** Mr Davutoglu said in an interview. a**When we see such
     an event next door to us of course we will never be silent.a**

     When asked about Turkeya**s stance on a buffer zone or a no-fly zone, he
     said: a**We hope that there will be no need for these type of measures
     but of course humanitarian issues are importanta*|There are certain
     universal values all of us need to respect and protecting citizens is
     the responsibility of every state.a**
     His comments are an indication of the growing pressure Turkey is putting
     on Syria, on the rhetorical level at least, to halt the crackdown.

     By contrast, in August Turkish officials rejected reports they were
     planning to impose a buffer zone, while Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Natoa**s
     secretary general, dismissed the idea of a no-fly zone this week.

     Turkeya**s position is important because the country cultivated closer
     ties with Damascus until this year and is now taking an active role in
     reaching out to the Syrian opposition.

     Speaking at the Turkish parliament on Tuesday, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
     Turkeya**s prime minister, praised the Syrian protests as a**gloriousa**
     and expressed his belief that they would succeed.

     Ankaraa**s tougher approach has been greatly welcomed by the US, which
     has been leading calls for Bashar al-Assad, Syrian president, to leave
     power.

     On Tuesday Syrian state television announced that a final agreement had
     been reached between the Syrian government and an Arab League committee
     working to find a solution that could end the unrest, although it did
     not provide any details. The US said it welcomed any international
     efforts to end the violence in Syria, but reiterated its call for Mr
     Assad to step down.

     Although in the interview Mr Davutoglu denied claims that Turkey allowed
     armed Syrian rebels to operate from its territory, last week he became
     one of the first international officials to meet leaders of the
     Istanbul-based opposition Syrian national council.

     Mr Erdogan is also likely to visit Syrian refugee camps in Turkey in the
     near future, and could announce further sanctions against Damascus when
     he does. The trip had previously been scheduled for last month, but was
     postponed because of the death of Mr Erdogana**s mother.

     Although Mr Davutoglu said Turkish sanctions against Syria would be
     targeted rather than broad, any unilateral steps would mark a change of
     tack for Turkey, which has long depicted sanctions against its
     neighbours as both ineffective and damaging to its own economy.

     a**We have always been against sanctions, economic sanctions which will
     harm people,a** Mr Davutoglu said. a**But certain measures [that] have
     an impact on a regime fighting against its own people are different.a**

     Mr Davutoglu also rejected a claim by Mr Assad that western intervention
     in Syria could turn the country into another Afghanistan.

     a**[To compare] Syria to Afghanistan would mean implicitly to accept
     that it is a failed state, which is not true,a** he said. a**There is a
     state continuing in Syria; the important thing is how the leaders of
     this state are acting.a** He added that the correct analogy was with
     eastern Europe in the 1980s and early 1990s and warned Mr Assad:
     a**Those leaders who do not understand this correctly will lose
     power.a**

     Turkey: Wea**ve intercepted 3 Syria-bound weapons shipments from Iran
     Turkey reportedly planning buffer zone along border with Syria
     07/11/2011

     By Tha'ir Abbas
     http://www.asharq-e.com/news.asp?section=1&amp;id=27239

     London, Asharq Al-Awsat- The situations in Syria entered a new stage
     yesterday with signs of Arab-international-regional manoeuvrings
     emerging, which could lead to fundamental changes in the handling of the
     Syrian crisis.

     Next to the extraordinary session that the Arab initiative committee
     will hold next Saturday to discuss the Syrian Government's failure to
     implement its obligations which it accepted in the Arab action plan for
     resolving the Syrian crisis, sources in the Syrian opposition have
     disclosed they have received promises that the UN Security Council
     [UNSC] will hold a session after the Arab meeting to discuss a UN
     resolution to send international observers to Syria while Turkey has
     expressed its "readiness and ability" to establish a buffer zone on
     condition of getting an "Arab and international cover."

     Turkish sources have told Asharq Al-Awsat that Ankara is coordinating on
     a a**high-levela** with both Qatar that chairs the Arab initiative and
     with the Arab League [AL] and Washington. They said Turkey was going to
     announce several sanctions in a message that Turkish Prime Minister
     Recep Tayyib Erdogan was scheduled to address to the Syrians during his
     inspection of their camps inside Turkey but that was postponed "so as to
     make room for the Arab initiative and see what results it will have."
     But the sources pointed out that "with the escalation in the situation
     and the stalling of the initiative, Turkey might raise the (sanctions)
     issue again." They added that Turkey was holding contacts with the UNSC
     member countries that are still hesitant, especially Brazil and South
     Africa which have very close ties with Turkey, in order to persuade them
     to take a different stand.

     The Turkish sources disclosed that Ankara has imposed what could be
     described as sanctions on Damascus, like its total ban on the entry of
     weapons to Syria, this includes stopping three previous shipments from
     Iran, in addition to "the careful examination" of particular banking
     transfers to businessmen loyal to the regime so as to pressure and
     prevent them from supporting it. They cited Turkish Foreign Minister
     Ahmet Davutoglu about his country's readiness to impose a buffer zone
     all along the borders to protect the civilians and stressing that his
     country "has the readiness and ability to impose the buffer zone but we
     need an Arab and international cover."

     Meanwhile, sources in the Syrian opposition have told Asharq Al-Awsat
     they have received promises of holding a new UNSC session this week
     whose agenda will include a draft resolution to send a team of observers
     to Syria. They pointed out that the mission of the "blue berets" would
     be to watch the Syrian violations and hence protect the demonstrators
     from the daily killings.

     On his part, Radwan Ziyadah, member of the Syrian National Council, told
     Asharq Al-Awsat that the AL's next meeting on Saturday could be decisive
     "because the regime has been given three chances so far and squandered
     them all. I believe this is enough to force the hesitant countries to
     take a stand." He pointed out that "it is obvious that the Syrian regime
     will not stop the killings but on the contrary, it is using all the
     army's firing power in shelling the cities" and added: "Things will be
     better if it (the AL) takes the right decision, demands international
     protection, and authorizes the UNSC to take the appropriate resolution.
     It will then be impossible for Russia and China to use the (veto) or
     even abstain from voting." He said "it would be a mockery and ridiculous
     for the AL to give the regime more chances after all it has done" and
     noted in return that the Syrian opposition's contacts with AL Secretary
     General Nabil Elaraby "showed an unusual seriousness" in addition to the
     opposition's contacts with countries Ziyadah described as "hesitant"
     such as Sudan and Algeria which "showed a change in stands."

     Leader of Free Syrian Army says not receiving arms from Turkey

     Text of report by Turkish newspaper Milliyet website on 7 November

     [Interview with Colonel Riyad al-Asad of Free Syria Army in Antakya by
     Asli Aydintasbas: "Riyad al-Asad versus Beshar al-Asad"]

     Colonel Riyad al-Asad runs the Free Syria Army, which is undertaking the
     armed struggle against the Syria regime, from within a camp in Antakya.
     The colonel boasts: "We have 22 units and 15,000 soldiers in Syria."

     Opponent who have left the army are pleased with Turkey's support, but
     unhappy that they are unable to get weapons. Riyad al-Asad says: "There
     are officers inside who do not want to open fire on civilians. There
     should at least be a buffer zone for them."

     Up until now the popular uprising that has been going on in Syria since
     March has not had one known face or voice or leader.

     However, the Free Syria Army, which is made up of officers who left the
     Syrian army in recent weeks has suddenly gained the entire world's
     attention through its armed actions against Beshar al-Asad's regime and
     because of the statements is making abroad.

     The rebellion began in Dera on 8 March and has continued across the
     country with 4,000 people being killed and tens of thousands being
     arrested. So, has it moved one step beyond being a street protest and
     become an armed resistance?

     In order to get an answer to this question we went to Antakya to speak
     with the officers of the Free Syria Army, which has begun an armed
     resistance against Beshar al-Asad and which has been making its voice
     heard just recently.

     Colonel Riyad al-Asad fled the Syrian army and sought asylum in Turkey
     when the uprisings began, and is the leader of the Free Syria Army.
     Claiming to be engaging in guerrilla action against the regime all over
     Syria, the movement is coordinated by two separate units deployed one in
     Antakya and one on the Lebanon-Syria border.

     A Very Special Camp

     The Free Syria Army (OSO) in Antakya is deployed in a 70-person camp
     holding a few colonels, captains and army families, and which is
     protected by the Turkish army. (There are other civilian camps in the
     same area housing thousands of refugees from Syria.)

     Ankara had given up hope in Damascus when Beshar al-Asad bloodily
     quelled the Syrian people's demands, and insists that its protection of
     the officers or civilians who fled from Syria is for "humanitarian
     reasons." The officials and regime opponents I spoke to stressed there
     were no weapons at the camp and that no weapon training was being given.
     To date, there have been no hit-and-run attacks into Syria from Turkey.
     However, the camps are being tightly protected by Turkey because of the
     consternation the OSO is causing in Damascus.

     A Slim, Smiling Colonel

     Colonel Al-Asad, whom we met at a secret location on a rainy day in
     Antakya, came to the meeting accompanied by the close protection team
     the Turkish authorities had given him. The colonel is in constant
     danger.

     I made many interviews with Saddam's opponents who had fled the Iraqi
     army and with Peshmerga commanders fighting Saddam in northern Iraq back
     in the 1990s. I know the "opposition" fabric in this region very well
     indeed. That is why I have to say I was surprised to see not a mustached
     commander with a pot belly but a slim, unassuming and smiling face
     before me.

     During the long interview we made through an interpreter we discussed
     the conditions in the Syrian army, the colonel's breath-taking escape to
     Turkey and the armed actions he had undertaken in Syria.

     Let me state now that opponents all over the world always embellish when
     they speak. It is hard to believe that Colonel Al-Asad is running the
     15,000-stong militia groups conducting a guerrilla war in Syria using a
     simple Nokia cell phone and Skype on a sluggish internet connection.

     Ankara, while protecting the Free Syria Army, is not giving it
     permission to form a base of armed operations within Turkey. In fact,
     these is why some officers grew fed up with sitting in Antakya and
     watching events from afar, and have returned to Syria in order to
     continue "fighting."

     There Is Embellishment And Truth Alike

     However, this tale does have an element of truth to it. It is entirely
     true that there are serious numbers leaving the Syrian army, that
     officers and soldiers unwilling to bear arms against the people are
     seeking a place of refuge, and that despite all the difficulties the OSO
     has become a legend within the country. It is also true that some
     soldiers refused to fire and that they have begun to conduct amateurish
     attacks in small groups.

     In the end, the demise of the regime in Syria might not come at the
     hands of the colonel in a business suit sitting across from me, but at
     the hands of someone else entirely, or as a result of completely
     different dynamics. However, when it does come the Free Syria Army will
     have a role and a function, large or small, in the tale.

     What Colonel Al-Asad knows very well indeed is that the world public,
     still not used to the speed of the Arab Spring, is exceedingly cautious
     about an adventure in Syria. The West has not yet "pressed the button"
     for the toppling of Beshar al-Asad's regime. The clearest indicator of
     this is the lack of American, French or British officials coming and
     going to the camp in Antakya. Even though Washington might occasionally
     interject saying, "Al-Asad should go" there are no sanctions against
     Syria and no steps towards creating a "buffer zone." But this does not
     necessarily mean that the issue, which will be placed on the world's
     agenda again when the prime minister goes to Hatay in the coming weeks,
     will not take on a completely different colour in 2012.

     Why Are The Kurds Not Joining In The Protests?

     The Syrian Kurds living in the Qamishlo region had remained distant from
     the protests that were shaking up the rest of the country, right up
     until Syrian Kurd leader Mi'shal Temo was assassinated last month. The
     first things the regime did when the protests began was to give the some
     of the Syria Kurds "ID card" and citizenship rights, which had been
     denied them for 50 years. After this, both the PKK and the KDP
     [Kurdistan Democracy Party] lead by Mas'ud Barzani, who has some weight
     in Qamishlo, told the Kurds to "stay silent." We asked Col Al-Asad why
     the Kurds were not taking part in the attacks:

     "The Kurds have been very shy when it comes to taking part in the
     demonstrations. When the protests began the regime made some pledges to
     the Kurdish groups and gave 50,000 Kurds ID cards. The PKK told its
     supporters there not to hold any demonstrations against the regime. In
     fact, a known cleric of Kurdish origins (Ramazan Buti) was sent to
     Aleppo. But the atmosphere is changing."

     Bashar al-Asad Will Only Be Removed By War, Not Persuasion

     Colonel Al-Asad surprised me when he said they supported the offer made
     to the Syrian administration by the Arab League and that this was why
     they put their attacks on hold for a time. I assumed this caution might
     have come from Ankara. However, Riyad al-Asad does not think that an
     accord can be reached with Syria: "Bashar al-Asad will leave only
     through combat, not through persuasion. The Arab League gave Al-Asad an
     opportunity. But since then they killed 20 people in Humus. There are
     thousands of detentions in Damascus, again. If he had really been honest
     he would have complied with the Arab League and withdrawn his tanks from
     the towns. But he knows his government will fall the moment he does
     this. He has been running the country for 11 years. If he were going to
     enact reforms he would have done so by now. Seeing that the people adore
     him he should let it go and let the foreign press into the country."

     Only Intelligence And Special Teams Being Targeted

     [Aydintasbas] How many people are there in your group?

     [Al-Asad] We have 22 separate units deployed in every region in Syria.
     Approximately 15,000 soldiers. We have telephone communications with
     every unit. S ome of the demonstrations recently have shouted slogans
     for us. We have carried out many actions against the army. Some of our
     ranking colleagues here have gone back to take charge of the units
     there.

     [Aydintasbas] What kind of actions are you carrying out against the
     army?

     [Al-Asad] We call on the officers not to point their guns at people and
     to leave the army immediately. We are only targeting the Muhaberat
     (intelligence) and the special units known as Shabiba. We are not
     targeting private soldiers or the regular army. We generally employ
     guerrilla tactics because we do not have the heavy weapons for a
     straight up fight. We set ambushed. We have a great resistance in
     Rastan, and in other places too. We killed 10 officers in the past week.

     No Weapons From Turkey. We Wish There Were!

     [Aydintasbas] What is the situation in the Syrian army?

     [Al-Asad] The Muhaberat completely controls the army. It is said we are
     defending the country from outside or Israeli-backed gangs. Some
     officers who refused to fire on the people were killed. (He lists
     names.) There are units that fled like we did or that fire into the air
     rather than kill people when sent to put down the protests.

     [Aydintasbas] Where do you get your weapons from?

     [Al-Asad] The forces within the country are already armed. We are able
     to get weapons inside.

     [Aydintasbas] What about Turkey?

     [Al-Asad] No. If only. Turkey is the only country that has opened its
     borders to us but Turkey is wary about giving us weapons. The New York
     Times wrote we were getting weapon training here, but that is not true.

     The Free Syria Army was formed by officers who fled the army rather than
     fire on demonstrators in Syria. They claim to be using guerrilla tactics
     inside Syria.

     The group's leaders live in Antakya and in Lebanon. Their strength might
     be over-exaggerated but their existence is enough to create panic in
     Damascus.

     Al-Asad Says All Opponents Are Islamists -We Are Not

     [Aydintasbas] How did you get out of Syria?

     [Al-Asad] I have been in the army for 31 years. I was most recently
     serving in Idlib Province on the border. When the demonstrations began
     we received instructions saying, "Be alert. There are Israeli-backed
     armed groups in the country." We were told to protect the country from
     armed gangs. Yet, these were protests calling for reforms and freedoms.
     When the protests spread nationwide the Sunni officers such as myself
     came under a lot of pressure.

     We were always being summoned to the Muhaberat centre in Aleppo. When
     demonstrations began in the town where I was born they grew really
     suspicious. I was questioned. I was instantly transferred from Idlib to
     Hama, and I knew I would be killed if I did not run.

     A few other officers under suspicion had been murdered in transit. I
     took my family and came to the border.

     [Aydintasbas] Bashar al-Asad told the Daily Telepgraph that the fighting
     in Syria was between Islamists and Arab nationalists. Are you an
     Islamist?

     [Al-Asad] No, I am not. The regime calls all opponents Islamist. But
     Al-Asad is not killing Islamists. He is killing the people.

     [Aydintasbas] But are you from the Muslim Brotherhood?

     [Al-Asad] I have nothing at all to do with them. At none of the
     demonstrations in the country has even one Ihvan (Muslim Brotherhood)
     placard been unfurled. The Syrian people are one. And we all want
     democracy under the Syrian flag. We would prefer to be like Turkey, both
     Muslim and a secular democracy. Regardless whether those in charge are
     secular or Islamist, the Arab people will no longer accept a tyrannical
     regime.

     [Aydintasbas] There is a fear that if the regime in Syria falls then the
     Nusayrians will be slaughtered.

     [Al-Asad] Never. That idea is being propagated by the regime. There are
     Nusayrians and Kurds too.

     [Aydintasbas] So, are there any Nusayrians in the Free Syria Army?

     [Al-As ad] No, we are all Sunni.

     We Want A No Fly Zone

     [Aydintasbas] Just recently the Syrians have been calling for No Fly
     Zones during the demonstrations. What good would that do?

     [Al-Asad] We also want a buffer zone and no fly zone along the border
     with Turkey because Al-Asad's regime can only be brought down through
     power and brute force, not through persuasion. There are many officers
     and soldiers ready to leave the army and who we have spoken with. But
     they have nowhere to go. They know they will be destroyed without a
     special safe area. Look, our resistance in Rastan held out for four
     days. For four days the tanks could not enter the city. They only
     managed to enter because of the air strikes. There were 150 dead. Our
     resistance lost two of its 12 officers. Yet, had there been a no fly
     zone the regime could never have taken the town.

     Source: Milliyet website, Istanbul, in Turkish 7 Nov 11

     BBC Mon EU1 EuroPol ME1 MEPol 071111 em/osc

    Syrian army defectors to resume operations against regime's forces       
                                                                             
    Text of report by Saudi-owned leading pan-Arab daily Al-Sharq al-Awsat   
    website on 5 November                                                    
                                                                             
    [Report by Caroline Akum in Beirut: "Colonel Al-As'ad to 'Al-Sharq       
    al-Awsat': We Will Resume Our Operations Against Regime's Forces After   
    its Intentions Were Exposed. Split Among National Council's Members Over 
    Coorperation with Free Syrian Army"]                                     
                                                                             
    Defecting Colonel Riyad al-As'ad, commander of the "Free Syrian Army",   
    has declared to Al-Sharq al-Awsat that his army will resume the          
    "qualitative" military operations against [Syrian President Bashar]      
    Al-Asad's forces after the "regime's intentions" were exposed during     
    "the God is Great Friday."                                               
                                                                             
    The Free Syrian Army suspended its operations on Wednesday night to give 
    the Arab [League] initiative the chance to succeed. Al-As'ad said in a   
    telephone contact "we gave the Syrian regime a chance of two days after  
    it announced its acceptance of the Arab initiative so as to expose its   
    lies and manoeuvres. From today and following the exposure of its        
    intentions on (God is Great Friday), we will resume carrying out         
    qualitative military operations and our movements are going to be bigger 
    and wider."                                                              
                                                                             
    Al-As'ad denied the report by the Daily Telegraph about his plan for the 
    Free Syrian Army to be the military wing of the Syrian opposition to     
    President Bashar al-Asad's regime and said "we refuse to be followers of 
    any party. I will form a military council as soon as possible."          
                                                                             
    Asked if there was any coordination about these operations with the      
    Syrian National Council whose members refuse to militarize the           
    revolution, he pointed out that there were no contacts at the leadership 
    level but at the level of specific persons. He added: "We have defected  
    from the Syrian army and have the right to defend ourselves and our      
    people militarily. Anyone who thinks that this Syrian regime will        
    collapse peacefully is deluded. This is why we refuse to keep the        
    revolution peaceful. I will establish a military national council at the 
    earliest possible time and we will have our own programme which we will  
    announce at the time." He stressed that "the defections are increasing   
    daily and I can confirm that we have passed the 15,000 number."          
                                                                             
    Asked if there was military coordination with the Turkish authorities,   
    he said "there is no security coordination with Turkey and the support   
    the authorities is giving us is limited to humanitarian aid in addition  
    of course to protecting our security and the Syrian people's security."  
                                                                             
    The British Daily Telegraph had reported [LINK HERE; NOV. 3 ARTICLE]     
    that Al-As'ad was living under permanent protection from the security    
    officials in Ankara and noted that the high level of human losses in the 
    Syrian security forces' ranks as a result of internal attacks confirms   
    the presence of armed forces operating with the secret approval of the   
    authorities. The paper cited Al-As'ad as saying that the Free Syrian     
    Army's members are armed with weapons and ammunition stolen from the     
    regime, are protecting the boundaries of the opposition towns and        
    villages, and are attacking the soldiers firing on peaceful              
    demonstrators. The paper added, also quoting Al-As'ad, "we are waiting   
    for the Syrian National Council to appoint a high-level delegation and   
    send a representative to talk to us about supporting their objectives    
    militarily."                                                             
                                                                             
    On the other hand, National Council member Umar al-Idlibi has told       
    Al-Sharq al-Awsat that the question of the council's relationship with   
    the Free Syrian Army is widely discussed by the members and the results  
    would be announced within few days, particularly as some of them refuse  
    to deal with it on the basis of "maintaining the purity of the           
    revolution", which he considered "an ideal but inapplicable viewpoint."  
                                                                             
    But Council member Jabr al-Shufi denied the existence of any             
    coordination between it and the Free Syrian Army's command and told      
    Al-Sharq al-Awsat: "There is no coordination between the Free Syrian     
    Army and us and we do not have any connections with any operations it is 
    carrying out on the ground because we reject the militarization of the   
    revolution though we support these defections on condition that they are 
    made on the basis of the peaceful revolution." Regarding the Daily       
    Telegraph's report that Al-As'ad was planning to make his army the       
    military wing of the Syrian opposition, Al-Shufi asserted that "the      
    Council has not adopted this army or a ny wing in it." As to the         
    possibility of coordination with Al-As'ad in the next stage, he said:    
    "Channels of communications could be opened with him if he agrees and    
    complies with our basic conditions, namely, the non-militarization of    
    the revolution and keeping it as peaceful as it started because we are   
    fully convi! nced that turning the revolution into a military one will   
    make it lose its broad base and provide the regime with an additional    
    pretext to use us against us and the demonstrators." He added: "We       
    support their use of arms if they are defending themselves, houses, and  
    citizens but we reject categorically any military attack or operation    
    because this is inconsistent with our objectives and approaches on which 
    the peaceful revolution is based."                                       
                                                                             
    Source: Al-Sharq al-Awsat website, London, in Arabic 5 Nov 11            
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEEauosc 051111 pk                                           

              A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011
     This Saudi media report is saying that Erdogan was going to visit the
     Antakya region (right on the Syrian border), but had to postpone it
     because of the PKK troubles and the subsequent Turkish military
     operation in N. Iraq. He will apparently reschedule his visit for after
     the Eid holidays.
     Does anyone here know Ersat Hurmuzlu? He is described as Gul's chief
     advisor, and he said some vague things Nov. 2 about Turkey preparing to
     take "measures" against Syria.
     The bolded part in the second to last para is potentially the most
     important, but like always, is a Saudi claim that doesn't cite anyone
     specifically from within the Syrian opposition. Read what they're
     claiming the Turks have promised Erdogan will deliver when he does make
     his visit to Antakya. That is some bigtime shit.

    Syrian opposition say Turkey "promised"' to arm dissidents, boycott      
    regime                                                                   
                                                                             
    Text of report by Saudi-owned leading pan-Arab daily Al-Sharq al-Awsat   
    website on 3 November                                                    
                                                                             
    [Report by Tha'ir Abbas in London: "Turkish official tells Al-Sharq      
    al-Awsat: We will take measures to protect the Syrian civilians and stop 
    the use of violence; Syrian opposition sources talk about Turkish        
    promises to establish a buffer zone, arm the dissidents, and boycott the 
    regime"]                                                                 
                                                                             
    Turkey has regained its hard-line tone against the Syrian regime         
    following a period of "anticipation" imposed by the successive           
    developments in the region. As Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip       
    Erdogan returns the Syrian file to the forefront of Turkey's priorities, 
    his close associates tell Al-Sharq al-Awsat that the expectations in     
    Turkey indicate that Ankara is on the verge of preparing for a higher    
    ceiling of statements and actions against Syria. Sources in the Turkish  
    prime minister's office have said that Erdogan did not make his expected 
    visit to the Antakya region due to the events that imposed "other        
    concerns". This was a reference to the attacks that the Kurdistan        
    Workers' Party perpetrated and the large-scale military operation that   
    the Turkish forces launched in northern Iraq. The sources pointed out    
    that Erdogan's visit to Antakya region to review the living conditions   
    of the Syrian "guests" in the Turkish camps has been deferred, not       
    cancelled. ! The sources went on to say that a new date for this visit   
    will be set after Erdogan returns from his two visits to Germany and     
    France and after the Id al-Adha holiday.                                 
                                                                             
    Ersat Hurmuzlu, the Turkish president's chief adviser, stated yesterday  
    [ 2 November] that his country will take "measures" regarding Syria,     
    adding that compliance with international sanctions imposed on the       
    Syrian regime are not subject to discussion. Hurmuzlu told Al-Sharq      
    al-Awsat that his country "will take measures to protect the Syrian      
    civilians and to stop the use of violence". However, he declined to go   
    into details but promised that the Turkish prime minister will announce  
    these measures in the name of the Turkish government. Hurmuzlu said that 
    his country "did all it can to expedite reforms in Syria; however, it    
    has lost hope because the Syrian leadership has chosen the principle of  
    violence and bloodshed". Hurmuzlu pointed out that his country was the   
    first to call for dialogue between the regime and the opposition. He     
    went on to say: "Why not if the new Arab initiative responds to the      
    demands of the Syrian people and guarantees the sparing of more !        
    bloodshed". He emphasized that the "legitimate demands of the Syrian     
    people should be met. The decision is in the hands of the Syrian         
    people". Syrian opposition sources disclosed to Al-Sharq al-Awsat        
    yesterday that Ankara promised the Syrian opposition to take four steps  
    that Erdogan will announce during his visits: Turkey will sever all      
    relations with the Syrian regime, will join the total and comprehensive  
    boycott of Al-Asad's regime, arm the Free Syrian Army, support the       
    establishment of a buffer zone in northern Syria, and help the Syrian    
    opposition on the international level regarding the demand of            
    international protection.                                                
                                                                             
    Hurmuzlu answered a question related to remarks made by Buthaynah        
    Sha'ban, the Syrian president's adviser, who talked about "Turkish       
    promises to issue passports to the Syrian refugees on Turkey's soil".    
    Hurmuzlu replied: "This is categorically incorrect. We consider these    
    civilians as guests, not refugees that. The circumstances in their       
    country drove them to seek asylum; they are free to return to their      
    country". Answering another remark by Sha'ban on why the refugees fled   
    from Idlib to Turkey instead of to Aleppo that is closer, Hurmuzlu said  
    that the security conditions forced them to take this step. He added:    
    "Seeking asylum in Turkey by the refugees was by choice. We did not ask  
    them to come to Turkey and we did not force them to return or to stay".  
    He emphasized that his country is treating its guests "will all          
    respect". He added that the Turkish authorities launched a vaccination   
    campaign among the refugees against Hepatitis and conducted a full       
    survey ! of the medical conditions of the more than 7,000 refugees.      
    Hurmuzlu concluded that the Syrian regime's remarks that the refugees    
    are being exploited are totally unjustified.                             
                                                                             
    Source: Al-Sharq al-Awsat website, London, in Arabic 3 Nov 11            
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEEauosc 051111/da                                           

              A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

     Russia urges support for Arab League peace plan on Syria
     Topic: Protests in Syria

     MOSCOW, November 7 (RIA Novosti)

     http://en.rian.ru/russia/20111107/168493117.html
      
     Russiaa**s Foreign Ministry called on Monday for international backing
     for an Arab League peace plan for Syria.
     Under the plan, Syria would release political prisoners detained during
     the ongoing conflict, and all military equipment would be removed from
     urban areas.
     Syria would also be obliged to allow Arab League and world media
     representatives into the country, as well as guarantee them free
     passage.
     a**The implementation of these measures and other provisions stipulated
     in the Arab Leaguea**s initiative paves the way for a constructive and
     detailed dialogue between the Syrian authorities and the opposition with
     the aim of putting the situation on the road to reconciliation and
     reformations without any foreign involvement,a** the Russian ministry
     said in a statement.
     Syria formally adopted the plan on November 2, but the Syrian opposition
     rejected it, saying it would not enter a dialogue with the current
     authorities.
     According to UN estimates, more than 3,000 people have been killed in
     Syria since mid-March, when first anti-regime protests began.

     I'm only sending this because it is a Saudi attempt to hype some sort of
     budding cooperation between the Libyan revolutionaries and the Syrian
     opposition. Note that they did not out any names of the Syrians that
     supposedly met with the Libyans. It is also not surprising at all for me
     to see that the Libyan they quote is Abdullah Naker. He is seriously
     butt buddies with the Asharq people; we mentioned him in our Libya piece
     - he's one of those who hates Belhaj with a passion.
     Syrian opposition seeks to emulate Libya's NTC in bid to oust Al-Asad
     Text of report by Saudi-owned leading pan-Arab daily Al-Sharq al-Awsat
     website on 3 November
     [Report by Khalid Mahmud in Cairo: "The Syrian council seeks to emulate
     the Libyan Model against Al-Asad's regime; Tripoli Revolutionary Council
     chairman to Al-Sharq al-Awsat: We will offer our expertise to Syrians to
     overthrow the Syrian regime"]
     The Syrian Transitional Council [STC], which is opposed to President
     Bashar al-Asad's regime, yesterday [2 November] seemed to be seeking to
     emulate the scenario of its Libyan counterpart against the late Col
     Mu'ammar al-Qadhafi. An STC delegation held semi-secret talks with
     representatives of various Libyan national forces and of the
     Transitional National Council [TNC] aimed at securing military and
     logistical support to enable demonstrators in Syria to stand up to
     Al-Asad's regime's brutal suppression.
     The STC delegation met with a number of Libyan revolutionary leaders,
     commanders of security brigades, as well as TNC officials in the Libyan
     capital Tripoli and in other Libyan cities. They sought to secure Libyan
     revolutionaries' support to STC's attempts to overthrow Al-Asad's
     regime.
     After meeting with the STC delegation, Abdallah Nakir al-Zintani,
     chairman of the Tripoli Revolutionary Council [NOTE: This guy was
     mentioned in our big Libya piece; hates Belhaj], told Al-Sharq al-Awsat
     that the Syrian delegation requested military and material aid as well
     as advice on how to confront the suppressive actions that the Syrian
     authorities commit against unarmed demonstrators in various Syrian
     cities. He added: "Naturally, they requested all sorts of aid they can
     get - -weapons, funds, combatants. We believe that the international
     community and the Arab countries should help the Syrian demonstrators'
     efforts to rid themselves of Al-Asad's regime." Al-Zintani noted that
     the Libyan revolutionaries sympathize with their Syrian brethren as they
     face systematic killing aimed at foiling the popular revolution against
     the ruling regime in Syria. He stressed that all the Syrian regime's
     methods to subjugate the demonstrators are doomed to failure.
     Al-Zintani added: "Our advice to him (Syrian President Bashar al-Asad)
     is that he should quit and voluntarily give up power instead of
     eventually finding himself tormented, humiliated, before getting killed
     like Al-Qadhafi." He said that the huge military machine that Al-Qadhafi
     had did not succeed in saving his regime from the Libyan people's
     overwhelming revolution against him. He added: "I think the same applies
     to Syria. Eventually, weapons will not succeed in subjecting the people
     who have taken to the streets in Syria. Suppression, torture, and
     killing will not terrorize the Syrian people. The Syrian president
     should learn a lesson from what happened around him in Egypt, Tunisia,
     and Libya."
     Al-Zintani said that he believed the Syrian president should show some
     wisdom and spare himself and his people torment, and avoid making them
     pay a heavy human and material price to get rid of him and his political
     regime. He added: "He must stop killing and promptly decide to quit, as
     Tunisian President Zine Elabidine Ben Ali did. Weapons and killing will
     not enable him to stay in power for ever against the Syrian people's
     will; this is absurd and he must stop."
     Al-Zintani said that the sympathy displayed by the Libyan
     revolutionaries for their Syrian brethren is quite justified because the
     conditions in both countries are similar to some extent. He said: "We
     started with peaceful demonstrations, which soon turned into
     confrontations, forcing us to stand up to Al-Qadhafi's regime, his
     security brigades, and military forces. The same thing is now happening
     in various parts of Syria. People take to the streets with bare chests
     while the regime opens fire at them to kill without seeking
     understanding." He urged the international community and the Arab
     countries to help the Syrian people in every way possible to prevent
     further carnage.
     Al-Zintani added: "We explained our experience to the Syrian delegation
     members on how to secure the support of the Arab countries, the
     international community, NATO, and the US Administration, and briefed
     them on our recent, modest experience." Al-Zintani stressed that through
     the TNC, the Libyan people should help their Syrian brethren to rid
     themselves of Al-Asad's regime. He said: "He (the Syrian president) has
     to understand that the Syrian people have awakened, and that they will
     not accept a continuation of any further humiliation. Nothing will
     protect him from the Syrian people's revolt except quitting and putting
     an end to his regime."
     Al-Zintani said: "We do not introduce ourselves as custodians of the
     Arab spring revolts. We only offer our experience to anyone who requests
     it, particularly because it is the newest experience in contemporary
     Arab history, and shows how we disposed of a tyrant like Al-Qadhafi." He
     said: "There is a strong similarity between what is happening in Syria
     and what happened in Libya. The thugs in Syrian streets are like the
     former members of the revolutionary committees and security brigades in
     Libya. Also, there are tribes and tribal mingling in Syria as are there
     in Libya."
     The Libyan TNC's recognition of the legitimacy of its Syrian counterpart
     against Syrian President Bashar al-Asad's regime is the first in the
     Arab region and the Middle East. In February, the Libyan people made
     their decisive choice early on the need for the imposition of a no-fly
     zone against Al-Qadhafi's regime, seeking NATO assistance to prevent
     Al-Qadhafi's forces from killing civilians and destroying the
     infrastructure of most Libyan cities. The Syrian opposition leaders,
     however, are still at odds among themselves over seeking assistance from
     NATO or other foreign parties.
     The Syrian oppositionists fear the prospect that the ruling regime in
     Damascus may exploit their resort to NATO help to defame them and
     shuffle the cards among the local people. However, as the killing
     escalates daily in various Syrian cities, the Syrian opposition leaders
     abroad seem to be reconsidering their calculations and repeat the Libyan
     scenario.
     In a statement to Al-Sharq al-Awsat, A Libyan TNC official said:
     "Certainly we are ready to assist our brethren in Syria, but the
     question is how and when." This official, who asked not to be
     identified, was referring to several technical difficulties that hamper
     shipping the aid required by the Syrian revolutionaries, notably the
     distance between the two countries and the unavailability of Libyan
     ships to transport weapons, let alone the fact that the Syrian regime is
     capable of preventing ships from docking at Syrian ports. Some Syrians
     consider Turkey as a destination for foreign aid to be transported later
     across the Turkish-Syrian border to Syrian territory.
     In his remarks to Al-Sharq al-Awsat, this Libyan official said: "These
     logistical hindrances can be overcome if an international and regional
     network is established for the purpose of transporting aid to Syria, a
     task that will be difficult, very costly, and fraught with danger."
     The Libyans do not forget that President Al-Asad's regime adopted a
     hostile stand on their popular revolution, which erupted against
     Al-Qadhafi on 17 February. Libyan military commanders accuse the Syrian
     regime of supporting Al-Qadhafi's regime militarily, supplying it with
     weapons and mercenaries, and providing it with intelligence information
     about Libyan oppositionists abroad. In remarks to Al-Sharq al-Awsat, a
     Libyan military commander said: "We feel we have a personal vendetta
     against Al-Asad's regime. We have previously arrested Syrian officers
     and pilots who were operating within Al-Qadhafi's army against the
     Libyan people."
     And after Al-Qadhafi lost his media outlets under the military strikes
     of the revolutionaries, backed by NATO aircraft bombardment, the
     Damascus-based Al-Ra'y satellite channel television assumed the mission
     of serving as Al-Qadhafi's voice to the world. And before Al-Qadhafi's
     death and the fall of his political regime, the Syrian authorities
     rejected more than one request by the Libyan revolutionaries to close
     down the Al-Ra'y channel. This channel, which is owned by Iraqi
     oppositionist Mish'an al-Juburi, is regarded as hostile as it incited
     the Libyans to kill the revolutionaries and propagated Al-Qadhafi's
     black propaganda.
     Although NATO Secretary General Ander Fogh Rasmussen, who visited Libya
     the day before yesterday, said that NATO had no intention of intervening
     in Syria or imposing a no-fly zone by force against the Syrian regime,
     many Syrian oppositionists believe that this official stand may change
     in the future.
     In his statement to Al-Sharq al-Awsat, Abdallah al-Zintani, chairman of
     the Tripoli Revolutionary Council, said: "The Syrian oppositionists
     should benefit from our experience. The international community will not
     intervene unless the Syrians pay the price, like us. We fought against
     Al-Qadhafi and lost thousands of martyrs, thus placing the international
     community in an embarrassing and regrettable situation. So eventually,
     NATO intervened militarily." He added: "If you want others to help you,
     you first have to prove to others that evasion of offering help to you
     is an inhuman and unethical act. The Syrians should assimilate the
     Libyan revolution's outcome and apply it as they deem fit to their
     situation."
     The preparatory national committee on support of the Syrian revolution
     called for a meeting in Paris. More than 50 Syrian opposition figures
     will participate in this constituent conference to work out programmes
     and elect action group to support the Syrian revolution in its struggle
     to overthrow the Syrian regime and build a civil, democratic state. In a
     statement it released, the committee said that the meeting will be held
     next Saturday and Sunday, noting that the opening session will be open
     to media outlets and that former Syrian Vice President Abd al-Halim
     Khaddam will address the meeting. The meeting will be followed by closed
     sessions and workshops.
     Source: Al-Sharq al-Awsat website, London, in Arabic 3 Nov 11
     BBC Mon ME1 MEEauosc 051111 nan
     A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

     Syria lashes out at U.S. State Department

     English.news.cn   2011-11-05 16:51:33

     http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-11/05/c_131231074.htm

     DAMASCUS, Nov. 5 (Xinhua) -- A Syrian foreign ministry source on
     Saturday slashed as "irresponsible" a statement made by the U.S. State
     Department advising Syrians not to surrender themselves after Damascus
     announced an amnesty for those who gave up their weapons.

     With its statement the U.S. administration has proved once again its
     flagrant intervention in the Syrian affairs and revealed its policy that
     supports killing, as well as its funding of " terrorist groups," the
     source was quoted by the state news agency as saying.

     The Syrian interior ministry on Friday called on those who carried, sold
     or distributed weapons but didn't commit homicides to turn themselves in
     within a week to receive amnesty.

     In a statement carried by the state TV, the ministry pledged to release
     those who turned themselves in between Nov. 5 and 12, saying that "this
     will be considered as an amnesty to those who surrender themselves and
     hand over their weapons."

     After the issue of the Syrian statement, the U.S. State Department
     spokesman Victoria Nuland told reporters that "I wouldn't advise anybody
     to turn themselves in to the (Syrian) authorities at the moment."

     "This would be about the fourth amnesty that they've offered since I
     took this job about five months ago," she said, "So we'll see if it has
     any more traction than it's had."

     The Syrian government "condemns this irresponsible statement that
     couldn't be interpreted but as aiming to foment sedition and support
     killing and terrorism practiced by armed groups against Syrian
     citizens," the foreign ministry source said.

     The Syrian government urged the international community to confront
     those policies "that run against the rules of the international law and
     the UN Security Council resolutions pertaining to combating and funding
     terrorism," the source said.

     Marking Eid al-Adha a*|553 Detainees Involved in Events with No Blood on
     their Hands Released

     Nov 05, 2011

     http://www.sana.sy/eng/21/2011/11/05/380103.htm

     DAMASCUS, (SANA)_Marking Eid al-Adha, 553 detainees who were involved in
     the current events with no blood on their hands were released.

     Also, 119 detainees were released lately.

     Interior Ministry on Friday called upon citizens who were involved in
     carrying, selling, distributing, transferring or financing the purchase
     of weapons and hadn't committed killing crimes to turn themselves in and
     hand their weapons over to the nearest police station in their region
     from Saturday, November 5, 2001 until Saturday, November 12, 2011.

     The Ministry, in a statement, said those who will turn themselves in
     will be released soon and this will be considered as a general amnesty
     for them.

     M. Ismael
     On 11/8/11 12:32 PM, Nate Hughes wrote:

       We've got a good foundation for this in George's dangers of a libyan
       NFZ piece and his emaculate/humanitarian intervention weekly.

       Syrian AD is certainly a more complex challenge that Libyan AD both in
       terms of disposition and sheer scale. But it also should not be
       overstated. It is a large but obtainable

       When was the last time any of this hardware was upgraded? How well are
       they maintained and how often do their crews drill? Has that changed
       since the unrest started?

       Israel demonstrated quite clearly that it can poke a pretty decisive
       hole in it back in 2007, and while Syria certainly learned from that,
       what has it been able to change in any meaningful sense? It is well
       mapped and routinely probed and monitored by the israelis.

       How many of their planes are flight worthy?

       Your points about this being a big undertaking -- bigger than Libya
       and more dangerous -- is well grounded in our pieces from the lead-up
       to the Libya intervention. But scale of strike capacity required is
       different than risk and achieveability. Mapping out disposition and
       detailing weapons specs does not convey the underlying military
       balance between a key strength of the american (and israeli) way of
       war -- the air campaign against even IAD networks -- and how Syria
       might hold up to it.

       With the right tools (in both quality and quantity) properly applied,
       Syria's AD network is entirely a manageable tactical problem -- though
       it would be messier than Libya to some degree.

       But you have not justified your concluding assertion that it would be
       a seismic shift, and can't do that without arguing the larger
       political shifts.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Omar Lamrani &lt;omar.lamrani@stratfor.com&gt;
       Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
       Date: Tue, 8 Nov 2011 10:45:04 -0600 (CST)
       To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
       ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
       Subject: DISCUSSION - What does a No-Fly Zone/Buffer Zone over Syria
       Mean?
       Excellent Map from the Graphics Department:

       https://clearspace.stratfor.com/docs/DOC-7456

       Aside from very isolated and limited strikes, any significant
       incursions or attempts to impose a buffer zone/no-fly zone over Syria
       will lead to major conflict.

       In order for aircraft to freely and safely operate over Syria, the
       Syrian air defense network must be degraded if not crippled. This
       means that radar systems have to be neutralized, surface to air
       missile (SAM) batteries targeted, runaways bombed, and Syrian fighter
       aircraft intercepted and destroyed. By any measure, this implies a
       bombing campaign over Syria, with serious potential for escalation.

       The NATO no-fly zone over Libya was preceded by massive cruise missile
       and air strikes against the Libyan air defense network. French
       aircraft did fly over Libya to strike at Kaddafia**s mechanized
       columns heading towards Benghazi before the main strikes against the
       Libyan AD network commenced, but they flew over parts of Libya without
       any air defenses due to the area previously having been overrun by
       rebels. As will be illustrated below, the Syrian air defense network
       is far more effective than the previous Libyan one ever was.

       Despite comprising largely of aging if not obsolescent Soviet
       equipment, the Syrian Air Defense network is fairly robust. The Syrian
       fixed SAM systems are mostly of the same type as those used by
       Kaddafia**s Libya, consisting primarily of SA-2, SA-3, SA-5, and SA-6
       systems. Unlike Kaddafia**s Libya however, the Syrian SAM network is
       far larger, denser, and focused. Multiple SAM batteries are deployed
       in such a way as to ensure overlapping and redundant coverage, which
       not only increases the survivability of the SAMs but also goes some
       way towards alleviating the aging equipmenta**s inability to target
       more than one target at a time.

       While Kaddafia**s air defenses were situated to protect the populated
       coast, the Syrian SAM network is heavily concentrated in Western
       Syria, with the entire network being primarily oriented towards
       defense against Israeli Air Force incursions.

       Syrian SA-5 batteries are long ranged systems that are more effective
       against strategic than tactical assets. Due to the low maneuverability
       of the launched missiles and their inability to target low flying
       aircraft, the primary role of the SA-5 is to deter or destroy AWACS,
       tankers, and other large and slow targets. The five Syrian SA-5
       batteries are deployed in a manner as to provide overlapping coverage
       of Western Syria, with all batteries able to engage targets over the
       Golan Heights and Damascus.

       The SAM belt around Damascus and the Golan Heights is perhaps the
       densest in the Middle East, with dozens of SA-2, SA-3, and SA-6
       batteries in the area. This component of the Syrian SAM network serves
       two main functions. First, it provides a major impediment to any
       aircraft coming in directly from Israel into Syria or entering Syria
       after flying through Southern Lebanon. Second, it provides an umbrella
       over the large numbers of Syrian army formations in the Golan as well
       as protects the capital.

       A number of Syrian SA-2 and SA-3 batteries are also deployed along the
       Syrian coast to prevent any aircraft penetrating into Syria from the
       sea. Further SA-2, SA-3, and SA-6 batteries are positioned to protect
       the major Syrian cities of Aleppo, Hama, and Homs, including major
       military facilities in the area such as the Homs missile factory, Hama
       missile base, and Al-Safir missile base.

       24 airports with paved runways as well as some 80 airports with
       unpaved runways are integral to the Syrian Air Defense network. The
       majority of these airbases are situated under the SAM system umbrella.
       From these airbases, a large and dispersed fighter and interceptor
       force reinforces the Syrian SAM network. Most notably, the 697, 698,
       and 699 Mig-29 squadrons operate from the Tsaykal airbase near the
       Damascus SAM belt and the 1st and 5th Mig-25 squadrons operate from
       the heavily defended Tiyas airbase east of Homs. Fighter and
       Interceptor aircraft are also charged with protecting the eastern half
       of Syria from attack, where Syrian SAM defenses are minimal.

       The Syrian AD network is comprehensive but that does not mean that it
       is able to stand up against a concerted air campaign by entities such
       as NATO or Israel. The Syrians are well aware of this, and have made
       substantial efforts to upgrade their defenses by seeking to purchase
       more modern SAM systems and aircraft such as the Mig-31. However, as
       can clearly be seen from the Israeli strike on a Syrian nuclear
       reactor (Operation Orchard), the Syrian AD network can be a serious
       threat that has to be averted. In the Operation Orchard case, IAF
       F-15Is from the 69th squadron deliberately flew over Turkey near the
       Syrian border to avoid the vast bulk of the Syrian defenses. In
       addition, the nuclear reactor was situated in the Deir ez-Zor region,
       deep in Eastern Syria where the only real defenses are obsolete Mig-21
       aircraft from the 8th squadron.

       The Syrian AD network is not very technologically sophisticated, but
       it is large and dangerous enough to pose a serious threat to any
       aircraft operating over Syria. Thus, if a decision to impose a no-fly
       zone or buffer zone is taken, then a concerted bombing campaign in
       Syria will ultimately be the result. Such a campaign could easily lead
       to escalation and unpredictable results. The decision to impose a
       no-fly zone over Syria is no easy matter, and would constitute a
       seismic shift in the region.

 --
 Omar Lamrani
 ADP
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 www.STARTFOR.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-08 19:58:16</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1290702_re-discussion-what-does-a-no-fly-zone-buffer-zone-over-syria.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>rbaker@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1294897</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   yes, marc called them a mob - and that seems accurate

   On 10/24/11 1:33 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     Good point. 
     In terrorist terms they are more like grassroots people than AQ core. 
     From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
     Reply-To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2011 13:11:05 -0500
     To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
     Somehow we have to stop referring to 'anonymous' as a monolith.  They
     are a bunch of different people that essentially get together in an
     online-form of a mob to carry out some action. I'm not sure how to do
     this in writing consistently.  But let's start with shit like 'people
     joining Anonymous chatrooms and claiming to be part of the movement' or
     something like that. 

     Comments in green below.  This is coming together nicely. 

     On 10/24/11 11:19 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of
       these in the US?
        What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
       I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
       whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
       because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
       revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of
       understanding of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is
       expendable to cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of
       coercion.

       Anonymous does not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
       cartels.  mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of
       el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication
       as a tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable
       intelligence, the government will use it against the cartels. That's a
       physical threat, if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify
       that Anonymous can not directly effect physical security. Any impact
       to the cartel in revealing information will be from actions of rival
       cartels or the GoM. They may release information on a given politician
       being linked to the cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the
       politician will feel an impact (Just because Anonymous says there is a
       link, doesn't make it true). It would be up to others to take action. 
       I think the way you have it worded in the above sentence is good. 
       Follow with a sentence explaining the rest of it, because readers will
       have the same question Karen did.  Something like 'Rather, the threat
       to cartels would come in what information anonymous could expose that
       is useful to their enemies'

       Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online
       activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to
       conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't know how
       much, but we do know they will have some points of operational
       vulnerability I have heard of cartels doing business online, but don't
       have specific examples which could be used in assessing their
       vulnerability online.

       by "no consequences" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired,
       arrested or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I
       should say, there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out
       politicians as colluding.
       On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
         c: 512.750.7234
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
         Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
         possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
         Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by people using
         the banner of Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on
         cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
         find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual
         being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico
         and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual
         posting flyers ['critical of cartels'?] in Veracruz as part of the
         Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation. [this is
         good and will be enough information to go with, though you'll need a
         quick explanation of what 'operation paperstorm' is.  Adding
         something in the explaining the flyers will work]

         Link: themeData
         Anonymous, a decentralized hacker collective  famous for distributed
         denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government and corporate
         websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
         statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
         depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on
         October 10? With the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold
         threats towards the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as
         releasing identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
         journalists who collude with criminal cartels do they specify
         whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of these in the US?
          What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
         group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
         face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
         was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
         their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
         potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
         presents a unique threat towards TCOs [If TCO= transnational
         criminal organization, it's not really unique.  Many such
         organizations do their crimes online, and have been hacked in
         response--like the nigerian princess scams. I think you should just
         say it's a unique threat to DTOs] . We know of cartels lashing out
         at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels
         dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

         What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
              o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
         threat to Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a
         gun to the head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for
         the using publication as a tool to force government action. If you
         reveal actionable intelligence, the government will use it against
         the cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
              o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
         media
              o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out
         at cartels

         While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
         threat, if it had access to certain types of information:

                 -The threat is in the information they can expose that may
     be of use to any cartel enemies.  That could be to the government or
     other cartels or even local citizens (the last one may be a stretch, but
     i could imagine someone discrediting cartel members in the eyes of the
     public).

              o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims tocut possess
         identifiable information on cartel members 
              o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
         cartels [cut this part here, and make the point at the end of this
         section/paragraph]
              o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
         identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in
         the realm of possibilities for
                     Anonymous
                     o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
         illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels
         are known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We
         don't know how much, but we do know they will have some points of
         operational vulnerability

        -They claim to have information on those that collude with cartels 
     (use the stuff you have above].  Releasing such information could hurt
     cartels' support networks, but most of these people are also easily
     replaceable. 
                 -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents
     have access to, and doubt they have such information that provides any
     sort of existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 

         Most Anonymous hackers are likely far removed from the ultra-violent
         world of drug trafficking in Mexico, but it's quite possible that
         some of its members in this campaign are in Mexico and opposed to
         the violence [or something like that.  my limited understanding is
         there are still activist crusader-types in Mexico, yeah?  it seems
         very possible those with a bit of time or computer skills could have
         joined up with anonymous] . As a result, their understanding of
         cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous members in other
         countries may act with confidence when sitting in front of a
         computer, but this may blind them to any possible retribution. They
         may not even know the impact of any online assault of cartels.  [the
         part below and above is written rather normatively.  We need to take
         that out.  just state the facts]
              o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
         will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
         individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
         drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
         halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not have
         a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
         Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &amp;
         Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
         consequences from this. by "no consequences" what exactly do you
         mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and that happens all
         the time.
              o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
         are willing to go protect their operations.
                 o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                 o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
         community before, coercing computer science majors into working for
         them.
                 o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
         discovering hackers within Mexico.
         need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply
         publishing tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the
         same camp as the bloggers  [yes, i think it needs to be clear that
         their damage will be similar to what bloggers or wikileaks can
         do--limited.  But maybe more a danger to themselves, since they are
         no longer challenging governments, but criminal organizations]

          

         On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

           Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
           there are several issues to address and fix here.

           These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
           discussion:

                o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but
           we can't gloss over that fact
                o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference
           between stealing bank records from government computers and
           overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
           information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
           kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
           talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
           politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
           going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
           killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
           operational details, because they acted as informants, because
           they exposed links with officials or because they somehow sullied
           the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of information is
           damaging to the cartels themselves?
                o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
           realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure
           of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for
           the technical ability by a very small number of its members to
           infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal information.
           Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on a network that
           is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
           information be found? Government databases? Once we know what kind
           of information is accessible, we can also know more about the
           consequences of dissemination.
                o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
           back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings
           done by people who may not understand the difference between an
           anon hacker and a blogger.

           On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

             wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

             -------- Original Message --------

              Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                 Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                 From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
             Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                   To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

             you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a
             lot more work

             You need to lay out:

             a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section
             is unclear
             b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
             therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
             c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
             d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone
             who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

             I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
             insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
             levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
             the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
             is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
             business online, in a protected fashion.

             Karen Hooper
             Latin America Analyst
             o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
             c: 512.750.7234
             STRATFOR
             www.stratfor.com
             On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

             On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             Link: themeData

             Trigger

             Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
             Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed
             out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
             denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released
             depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a screen?
             exactly when?.  With the most recent video release, Anonymous
             makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels. Threats such as
             releasing identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
             politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels.
             The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped
             member otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
             between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
             unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly different
             operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
             Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
             believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
             not believe for a second that the cartels have no experience
             with hackers.

              

             In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned
             as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their
             demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned
             right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening
             to hit back. Provide enough details so we understand who this
             guy is and why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous'
             claims of possessing revealing information on cartel members and
             operations are true, cartels will likely respond with violence
             against individuals revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you
             mean Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public
             disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force the
             GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i
             don't understand what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten
             Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
             against Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will
             continue their threats against any individual using online media
             WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about
             bloggers here. against the cartels.

              

             The Battle Space

             Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
             realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
             of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
             geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
             exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
             are physical people tho live in the real world. They have names
             and addresses - although most of them are likely outside of MX.)
              Anonymous' power base consists of their technical capabilities
             in hacking. Any information connected to the Internet is
             vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of
             individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population
             could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
             has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big
             company with a website that brings in revenue, but it does not
             really matter if you don't run operations on the web. Los Z
             don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are also far less
             dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

             Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
             base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
             believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
             through the internet. This gives an opening for people
             disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
             dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll.
             Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
             themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of serious IT
             capability. 

             The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been
             from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

             The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
             Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
             maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
             commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
             and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight.
             There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar
             capacity.  Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue
             and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
             experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels are
             always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence.
             While battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law
             Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in
             the flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted media
             outlets. Murdering journalists and online bloggers in order to
             cover details of their operations. ok... but that's kind of a
             red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus on the
             possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
             have no cyber presence.

              

             Anonymous' Weapons

             Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
             criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
             combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
             disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
             anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites in
             Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
             admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
             guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
             campaign by technically elite individuals can not be overlooked
             should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream media
             outlets and social media blogs as such a threat to their
             operations, that they have continued to target journalists and
             bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was placed
             with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the body of a
             blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce cartels
             on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not
             really addressing the subheading

             As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
             risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest
             Anonymous is capable of possessing information they threaten to
             release. By releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
             Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
             individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
             information is limited by what is available via the Internet.
             Government computers connected to the Internet should always be
             considered a possibility of an attack. However, as with the
             compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer
             networks, information available to Mexico's intelligence
             collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to
             say here? This isn't clear at all

              

             Cartel's Defense

                         A counter response to the video? by the cartels has
             yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped
             member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the
             threat posed by hackers so... how has there not been a counter
             response? also this undermines your statements above about how
             Anonymous is soley internet based, and underlines the
             vulnerabilities of associated members. How did they find teh
             Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well give you
             some indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
             Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the
             cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed
             for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies
             dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and
             we have good intel indicating that) they are working on
             disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can
             operate in any region of the world. Personal information
             including locations is only available if a hacker chooses to
             divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
             figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous. Cartels
             are only capable of dealing with their online enemy, if they can
             physically reach out to them. Or start employing hackers of
             their own under their payroll? Stranger things have happened,
             Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                         Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
             Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
             help of computer science majors through personal threats has
             been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported where?. 
             Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence and drug
             trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of technical
             experts to help combat any threat by computer hackers.  While
             identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it
             is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
             operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies such
             as the FBi, with far more technical experience and resources
             than cartels, struggle to find hackers through investigations.
             A) How do you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they
             kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are
             equally difficult to track down

                         In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
             likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with,
             brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
             operations within Mexico "still"? why would we assume they
             wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
             communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
             members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
             likely continue to be used to scare online media into submission
             i'm not really seeing the online media-international hacking
             group connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
             inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
             encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of cartel
             violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to be
             seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of
             the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff
             and simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can
             inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 20:39:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1294897_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>colby.martin@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1295434</id>
    <title>Fwd: Fighting Grassroots Terrorism:
</title>
    <description>   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: Fighting Grassroots Terrorism:               
      Date: Thu, 4 Aug 2011 08:09:34 -0400               
      From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt; 
        To: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;            

   Kudos to Scott for another insightful article. As you know, this is
   exactly the message we've been pushing for almost seven years now -- and
   gaining some traction. TrapWire SAR reports are fed directly/automatically
   into the National SAR Initiative (NSI) that Scott mentions...as well as
   the FBI's eGuardian system if/when there's confirmed nexus to terrorism or
   major crimes (which is happening frequently). Additionally, our networks
   in LA, Vegas and DC all support See Something Say Something (S4 as I call
   it), with TrapWire actually acting as the analytic tool behind the scenes.
   Pentagon, Ft. Meade and USMC (which is pushing to get TrapWire deployed
   globally for their bases) all feed their own military-centric S4 type
   programs. ("Eagle Eyes" at Quantico for instance).

    
</description>
    <date>2011-08-04 14:19:17</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1295434_fwd-fighting-grassroots-terrorism-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>responses@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:responses@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1302136</id>
    <title>Fwd: Re: Fwd: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
 conflict in context
</title>
    <description>   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: Re: Fwd: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta    
            conflict in context                                               
      Date: Wed, 02 Nov 2011 12:14:05 -0500                                   
      From: kyle.rhodes &lt;kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com&gt;                            
        To: Maverick Fisher &lt;fisher@stratfor.com&gt;                             
        CC: Eric Brown &lt;eric.brown@stratfor.com&gt;, Megan Headley               
            &lt;megan.headley@stratfor.com&gt;, scott stewart                       
            &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;                                            

   Some quick ideas  -today's crazy busy for me again

   "Anonymous" Threats In Context of Mexican Cartel Violence

   Anonymous, Cartel Conflict in Context of Ongoing Violence

   Anonymous vs The Cartels: New Chapter in Mexican Drug Conflict

   On 11/2/11 12:02 PM, Maverick Fisher wrote:

     Thoughts?

     Sent from my iPhone
     Begin forwarded message:

       From: scott stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
       Date: November 2, 2011 11:15:37 AM CDT
       To: Maverick Fisher &lt;fisher@stratfor.com&gt;
       Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
       conflict in context

       I'm a terrible advertising person.
       Mexico: Examining the Anonymous/Zeta Cartel Conflict
       From: Maverick Fisher &lt;fisher@stratfor.com&gt;
       Date: Wed, 2 Nov 2011 11:05:04 -0500 (CDT)
       To: scott stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
       Subject: Fwd: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
       conflict in context
       Any thoughts on tweaking the title?

       Sent from my iPhone
       Begin forwarded message:

         From: Megan Headley &lt;megan.headley@stratfor.com&gt;
         Date: November 2, 2011 10:54:14 AM CDT
         To: Maverick Fisher &lt;fisher@stratfor.com&gt;
         Cc: Kyle Rhodes &lt;kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com&gt;,  Eric Brown
         &lt;eric.brown@stratfor.com&gt;, Mike Marchio &lt;mike.marchio@stratfor.com&gt;
         Subject: Re: Fwd: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs.
         Zeta conflict in context

         Hey Maverick,

         You're right about this weekly. Yes, I think Mexico / Cartel should
         both be in the title if possible. Not sure if EB has other
         suggestions.

         Megan

         On 11/1/11 2:47 PM, Maverick Fisher wrote:

           Very good weekly -- I'm sure this is going to get a lot play given
           the topic, so let's be sure to pick our title wisely. I'm OK with
           Stick's title, but do you think Mexico or Cartel should be in
           there?
           Begin forwarded message:

             From: scott stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
             Subject: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
             conflict in context
             Date: November 1, 2011 1:11:00 PM CDT
             To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
             Reply-To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
              Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta Conflict in Context
             On Oct. 31, the online activist collective Anonymous posted a
             message to the internet  in which it stated that it was
             continuing with its campaign against the Mexican criminal
             cartels and their governmentsupporters despite the inherent
             danger.
              
             The messageurged inexperienced activists who might not be
             practicing proper online security measures to abstain from
             participating. It also urged individuals associated with
             Anonymous to not conduct physical pamphlet drops, participate in
             protests, wear or purchase Guy Fawkes masks, or use Guy Fawkes
             imagery in their internet or physical world activities.  Guy
             Fawkes was British Catholic conspirator who was involved in a
             plot to bomb the British Parliament in 1605, and who has become
             somewhat of an Anarchist icon in the United Kingdom. The British
             celebrate Guy Fawkes Day each year on Nov. 5, and the day has
             special meaning for the anarchists.  
              
             It is not coincidental then, that in their Oct. 6 video,
             Anonymous set Nov. 5 as the deadline for Los Zetas to release
             the Anonymous associate who was allegedly kidnapped in Veracruz
             by Los Zetas. The Anonymous associate was reportedly abducted
             during an Anonymous leaflet campaign called Operation
             Paperstorm.
              
             The Oct. 31message acknowledged that the operation against Los
             Zetas, dubbed "# OpCartel" is dangerous and noted that the
             collective would be assembling a hand-picked group of known and
             trusted associates to participate in a special task force to
             execute the operation. It asked supporters to use a software
             widget they had developed in order to anonymously pass
             information pertaining to drug trafficking to the task force,
             which will then distribute it. 
              
             With Nov. 5, approaching, and at least some elements of
             Anonymous not backing down on their threats to Los Zetas, we
             thought it would be useful to provide some context to the
             present conflict between Anonymous and Los Zetas and to also
             address some of its potential implications.
              
             Context
              
             First it issignificant to understand that the epicenter of this
             event is Veracruz, which  has been a very busy place over the
             past few months in terms of Mexico's cartel wars. The port city
             also serves as a critical transportation hub for the narcotics
             smuggling activities of the Los Zetas cartel. Because of this,
             Stratfor has identified Veracruz as
             [link http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111024-mexican-drug-war-update-polarization-continues ] a
             bellweather city thatwill help determine the trajectory of the
             Los Zetas cartel in the coming months. 
              
             One of the big recent developments in Veracruz was the Sinaloa
             cartel's push into the Zeta stronghold using the
             [link http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110928-mexico-security-memo-zetas-defensive-veracruz ] Cartel
             de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), which using the name
             Matazetas (Zeta killers) conducted some high-profile body dumps
             of over 50 alleged low-level Zeta operatives on Sept. 20 and
             22.  On Oct. 25, Mexican Marines arrested Carlos Arturo
             Pitalua-Carillo, "El Bam Bam," who was Los Zetas plaza boss in
             Veracruz.  This means that in Veracruz at the present time, Los
             Zetas are feeling pressure from both the Government of Mexico
             and the CJNG.
              
             Into this dynamic flow, we had the Anonymous internet collective
             begin to take action in Veracruz in August. In response to what
             Anonymous saw as the state of Veracruz supporting the Los Zetas
             cartel, they launched Operation Paperstorm, in which activists
             associated with the Anonymous collective distributed leaflets
             throughout Veracruz claiming the state government supports Los
             Zetas.  They conducted major leaflet distributions on Aug. 13,
             20, and 29. They also released videos to the internet on Aug. 26
             and 29, condemning the State of Veracruz. (According to the Oct.
             6 Anonymous video, Los Zetas allegedly kidnapped one of the
             activists involved in Operation Paperstorm.)
              
             Activities outside of Veracruz have also played a part in
             setting the stage. On Sept. 13, two people were tortured and
             killed and their bodies hung from a pedestrianoverpass in Nuevo
             Laredo, Tamaulipas state.  Signs left with the bodies signified
             that Los Zetas had killed the pair because they had posted
             information pertaining to Los Zetas on blogs that specialize in
             reporting on the Mexican cartels. On Sept 26, the body of
             Marisol Macias Casteneda was found beheaded in a park in Nuevo
             Laredo.   Macias who worked for a local newspaper allegedly
             posted on cartel blogs using the nickname "Laredo Girl." A
             message found with her body noted that she was killed by Los
             Zetas due to her online activities.
              
             Following the death of Laredo Girl, Anonymous claimed
             responsibility for a distributed denial of service (DDOS) attack
             conducted against the official website of the state of Veracruz.
             Although she was killed by Los Zetas in Nuevo Laredo Tamaulipas,
             Anonymous said their attack on the Veracruz state website was
             because of the death of Laredo Girl.
              
             It is also important to recognize that Anonymous was also
             unhappy with the State of Veracruz over the decision of the
             state to prosecute two individuals who had posted false
             kidnapping reports on Twitter on Aug. 25. The false reports
             alleged that a group of children had been abducted from a
             Veracruz school and the panic caused by the report allegedly
             resulted in some two dozen traffic accidents as terrified
             parents rushed to the school to check o n their children. The
             so-called "twitter terrorists" were initially charged with
             offenses that could have carried a 30-year sentence. Anonymous,
             which has absolute freedom of speech on the internet as one of
             its foundational principles, took umbrage with this stiff
             penalty for the Twitter case - especially because it stood in
             stark contrast with the impunity many cartel figures enjoy in
             Mexico. 
              
              
             Following the Oct. 6 release of the video in which Anonymous
             threatened Los Zetas if they did not release the kidnapped
             anonymous activist, Stratfor began to focus on the story, and in
             light of the approaching Nov. 5 deadline, decided to publish an,
             [link http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111028-mexicos-cartels-draw-online-activists-ire ] analysis
             of the topic, which was released on Oct. 28.  
              
             Following the release of our analysis, the topic has received a
             great deal of media coverage. This publicity has generated a
             very interesting response from Anonymous -- one that emphasizes
             the fast that it is a collective of people and not an
             organization.  As some Anonymousactivists were backing off the
             issue, erasing online user accounts, suggesting that the
             operation against Los Zetas had been a hoax and claiming that no
             activist had been kidnapped, other activists suggested that the
             campaign should be suspended. Still other activists became more
             strident and determined in their posts, urging that the campaign
             continue. Since Anonymous is a collective, activists can pick
             and choose which actions they will participate in. that means in
             his case that those activists who want to refrain from the
             campaign will and those who want to participate will continue
             it.
              
             This will to continue was manifested on Oct. 29, the personal
             website of Gustavo RosarioTorres, the former attorney general of
             the Mexican state of Tobasco was hacked and defaced with a
             message from Anonymous Mexico stating that Rosario was
             aZeta.  It was also reflected in the tone of the Oct. 31
             message. Some activists associated with Anonymous clearly feel
             compelled to continue with the campaign due to the outpouring of
             public support they received in the wake of the media coverage.
             According to the Oct 31. Video statement:
              
             "we received many expressions of support and solidarity as well
             as the voices of people crying for help. We must remember that
             we are on the side of the people, and we cannot let down the
             people, especially in critical moments like the one they
             currently live in."
              
             We therefore anticipate that some Anonymous activists will
             continue the campaign. We also believe that Los Zetas will
             respond.
              
             Revenge of the Sith (Yes Kamran, I agree with Isa that Star Wars
             is better than Star Trek) 
              
             The variouscartel groups in Mexico have long used the internet
             as a place to trumpet their triumphs on the battlefield and to
             taunt and even degrade their enemies. The cartels have posted
             videos of them torturing, executing and beheading members of
             opposing cartels. They also frequently monitor narco blogs and
             sometimeseven post on them.  As demonstrated by the blogger
             killings in Nuevo Laredo in September, Los Zetas appear to
             possess at least some rudimentary capability to trace online
             activity to people in thephysical world. It is not known if they
             employ their own team of dedicated cyber experts or if they rely
             on sources within the Mexican government - although the most
             likely answer is probably a little of both. 
              
              
             In past Anonymous actions, like the Dec. 2010 attack against Pay
             Pal following the Wikileaks case, governments in the U.S. and
             the UK have arrested numerous individuals associated with
             Anonymous who allegedly participated in the attack. In June
             2011, Turkey arrested dozens of activists associated with
             Anonymousactions conducted against the Turkish government for
             its efforts to establish a national internet filtering system.
              
             Los Zetas, like the other Mexican cartels, do not take affronts
             lightly. Even if Anonymous is not able to provide information
             that will damage Los Zetas smuggling operations, the very fact
             that this group has decided to challenge Los Zetas publicly will
             result in some sort of response. The big question is: do
             theypossess the capability to effectively trace the organizers
             of the Anonymousaction against them?
              
             One problem with an entity such as Anonymous is that it is
             intentionally amorphous - it is also as transnational as the
             internet, and it would not be surprising if many of those chosen
             to participate in the operation against Los Zetas are located
             outside of Mexico in locations such as the U.S. and Europe which
             are outside the immediate reach of Los Zetas.
              
             But the amorphous nature of Anonymous can also cut the other
             way.  If Los Zetas pick up and execute some random patrons from
             an internet cafe, behead them and place Guy Fawkesmasks on their
             heads, it will be very difficult to prove that they
             were not associated with Anonymous.  As Anonymous noted in their
             Oct. 31 video, this is dangerous business.
              
              
             The Big Picture
              
             One thing to watch as the Anonymous operation continues is the
             way in which the Mexican public reacts. Many people in the
             Mexican middle and upper classes have been deeply affected by
             the criminal cartels and theviolence the practice. We talk to
             many people in Mexico who are fearful of being kidnapped. In
             many communities, especially places like Juarez, Torreon,
             Monterrey and Veracruz, businessmen are being caught in a
             terrible bind. On one hand, they are receiving ever-increasing
             extortion demands from the cartels, while at the same time their
             business revenues are dwindling because people are afraid to go
             out due to the violence associated with those same cartels. This
             is forcing many businessmen out of business. It is also creating
             a great deal of frustration and resentment.
              
             At the same time, Mexico has become one of the most dangerous
             countries in the world for journalists, and many media companies
             practice heavy self-censorship to protect themselves. In the
             wake of the September blogger killings some of the narco blogs,
             like Blog del Narco, have also exhibited strong signs of fear
             inspired self-censorship.   This means that the legitimate press
             is not able to be of any real aid to the Mexican people.
              
             Mexican citizens are also frustrated with their government,
             which is well-known for corruption.  This is the sentiment
             feeding Anonymous' original campaign in Veracruz.  This
             frustration has lead some people to begin to talk about
             vigilante groups to fight the cartels - though that has been
             attempted before in Mexico and as we saw in the case of
             [link http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090714_mexico_la_familia_michoacana_expands_its_attacks ] La
             Familia Michoacan, which originally began as such a vigilante
             group, vigilantism frequently does not end well.
              
             This is where Anonymous may fit in. With Mexican citizens unable
             to rely on their government, the media or even armed vigilante
             groups for assistance, they may embrace Anonymous and come to
             view its form of cyber vigilantism as an outlet for their
             frustration -- and a safe way to pass oninformation pertaining
             to cartel activities.  If this occurs, we may see people not
             just in Veracruz and other Zeta controlled areas providing
             information to Anonymous, but citizens from all over the
             country.
              
             Also, in the same way that cartels leak information
             togovernments in an effort to use them as weapons against their
             rivals, we could also very well see groups such as the Sinaloa
             cartel provide information on Los Zetas to Anonymous. This of
             course would provide even more reason for Los Zetas to strike
             out against the activist collective.
              
             If the Anonymous information campaign does indeed take off, and
             if Anonymous is attacked by Los Zetas, the activists could
             resort to releasing sensitive information to the U.S. Drug
             Enforcement Administration in an attempt to damage Los Zetas.
             This would be an incredible irony in light of the way Anonymous
             has viewed itself as an opponent of the U.S. government in cases
             like Wikileaks. 

           --
           Maverick Fisher
           Director, Writers and Graphics
           STRATFOR
           221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
           Austin, TX 78701
           T: +1 512 744 4322 | F: +1 512 744 4334
           www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 Kyle Rhodes
 Public Relations Manager
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com

 kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com
 +1.512.744.4309
 www.twitter.com/stratfor
 www.facebook.com/stratfor
</description>
    <date>2011-11-02 18:18:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1302136_fwd-re-fwd-s-weekly-for-comment-placing-the-anonymous-vs.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>megan.headley@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ryan.bridges@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1305059</id>
    <title>[CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing possible
   cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat Anonymous can pose
   to cartels. The video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing personal
   information on cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I
   could not find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual
   being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and
   Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting flyers
   in Veracruz as part of the Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is
   speculation.

   Link: themeData
   Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
   denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed out at
   drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
   criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked individual
   addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the most recent video
   release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels in
   Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers, police,
   politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker
   group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
   consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
   mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their
   demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The potential of
   conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents a unique
   threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out at online bloggers,
   but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches
   from hackers before. 

   What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
        o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat to
   Mexican cartels.
        o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online media
        o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out at
   cartels

   While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a threat
        o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess identifiable
   information on cartel members
        o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
   cartels
        o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
   identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in the
   realm of possibilities for
               Anonymous
               o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit
   online activity (child pornography rings)

   Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the ultra-violent world
   of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result, their understanding of cartel
   activities may be limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting
   in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
   retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online assault of
   cartels.
        o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will cost
   lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are forced
   to collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are often victims of
   extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the identity of these
   individuals will not have a significant impact on cartel                  
   operations. Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero
   &amp; Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any consequences
   from this.
        o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are
   willing to go protect their operations.
           o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
           o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science community
   before, coercing computer science majors into working for them.
           o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of discovering
   hackers within Mexico.

    

   On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there are
     several issues to address and fix here.

     These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the discussion:

          o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but we
     can't gloss over that fact
          o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference between
     stealing bank records from government computers and overloading
     www.loszetas.com main page.
          o     There's no thought out process of what sort of information
     could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is kept online and
     accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
     identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops, politicians and
     businessmen who need to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
     Think about why the bloggers and media were killed in previous
     instances. Was it because they revealed operational details, because
     they acted as informants, because they exposed links with officials or
     because they somehow sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what
     kind of information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
          o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
     realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of
     damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the
     technical ability by a very small number of its members to infiltrate
     certain networks and databases and steal information. Now what kind of
     information would a cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
     internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could information be found?
     Government databases? Once we know what kind of information is
     accessible, we can also know more about the consequences of
     dissemination.
          o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace back
     attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done by people
     who may not understand the difference between an anon hacker and a
     blogger.

     On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

       wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

       -------- Original Message --------

        Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
           Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
           From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
       Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
             To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

       you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a lot
       more work

       You need to lay out:

       a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section is
       unclear
       b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and therefore
       their vulnerabilities and capabilities
       c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
       d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone who
       breaches their systems or exposes their connections

       I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable insight
       that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels of
       sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of cyber
       currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason to assume
       that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a protected
       fashion.

       Karen Hooper
       Latin America Analyst
       o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
       c: 512.750.7234
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com
       On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

       On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       Link: themeData

       Trigger

       Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers. Anonymous,
       a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed out at drug
       cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
       criminal cartels, including a video released depicting...? a person
       talking? a voice? words on a screen? exactly when?.  With the most
       recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
       criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of Mexican?
       American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who
       collude with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
       release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. The
       potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
       presents an unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly
       different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
       Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
       believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do not
       believe for a second that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

        

       In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
       day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of
       releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up front.
       Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back. Provide
       enough details so we understand who this guy is and why/how he was
       abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing revealing
       information on cartel members and operations are true, cartels will
       likely respond with violence against individuals revealed as opposing
       cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous members?. It also is likely
       that public disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will
       force the GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i
       don't understand what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten
       Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
       against Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue
       their threats against any individual using online media WC.... you
       mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here. against
       the cartels.

        

       The Battle Space

       Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate realities
       from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of the computer
       networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical boundaries. All
       personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in cyber space.  (That is
       not entirely true. They are physical people tho live in the real
       world. They have names and addresses - although most of them are
       likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power base consists of their
       technical capabilities in hacking. Any information connected to the
       Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's
       of individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population could
       be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous has done are
       DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big company with a
       website that brings in revenue, but it does not really matter if you
       don't run operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money via
       e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on the web than the
       jihadists.)

       Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base
       consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe
       themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the
       internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything and
       everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme goes,
       anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web of
       people who identify themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of serious
       IT capability. 

       The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been from
       targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

       The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
       Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to maximize
       profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar commerce. Yes.....
       but they use the internet to launder money and issue commands. We know
       that Sinaloa does that from insight. There is no reason to assume that
       Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity.  Their power base is built by
       large amounts of revenue and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like
       Los Zetas, are experienced in facing different types of threats.
       Cartels are always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel
       violence. While battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law
       Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in the
       flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted media outlets.
       Murdering journalists and online bloggers in order to cover details of
       their operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this
       discussion. You need to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of the
       cartels. Don't just assume they have no cyber presence.

        

       Anonymous' Weapons

       Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
       criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to combat
       cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating sensitive
       information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel statements via
       social media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean so far and that
       we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to cartels, they
       cannot fight with guns.  The significance of a targeted information
       operations campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
       overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream
       media outlets and social media blogs as such a threat to their
       operations, that they have continued to target journalists and
       bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was placed with a
       dead female body  more relevantly, on the body of a blogger. The
       message threatened any users who denounce cartels on blogging
       websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not really addressing the
       subheading

       As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks
       disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest Anonymous is
       capable of possessing information they threaten to release. By
       releasing identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican cartels,
       Anonymous threatens the life of those individuals. Anonymous's ability
       to disseminate sensitive information is limited by what is available
       via the Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
       should always be considered a possibility of an attack. However, as
       with the compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer
       networks, information available to Mexico's intelligence collection
       may not be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This
       isn't clear at all

        

       Cartel's Defense

                   A counter response to the video? by the cartels has yet to
       see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped member by Los
       Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by
       hackers so... how has there not been a counter response? also this
       undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is soley internet
       based, and underlines the vulnerabilities of associated members. How
       did they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well
       give you some indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
       Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the
       cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed for
       them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies dedicated to
       fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good intel
       indicating that) they are working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers
       threatening cartels, can operate in any region of the world. Personal
       information including locations is only available if a hacker chooses
       to divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
       figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous. Cartels are only
       capable of dealing with their online enemy, if they can physically
       reach out to them. Or start employing hackers of their own under their
       payroll? Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                   Cartels have been known to coerce the services of Mexican
       citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help of computer
       science majors through personal threats has been reported in the past
       where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels operate in the
       world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they will likely need
       the assistance of technical experts to help combat any threat by
       computer hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has
       been demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying
       any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies
       such as the FBi, with far more technical experience and resources than
       cartels, struggle to find hackers through investigations. A) How do
       you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???)
       B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult to
       track down

                   In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
       likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute
       force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within
       Mexico "still"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals
       with alleged connections to hacker communities will likely be targeted
       and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and public display
       of violence will likely continue to be used to scare online media into
       submission i'm not really seeing the online media-international
       hacking group connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
       inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely encountered
       before in their life. Whether the fear of cartel violence softens the
       confidence of Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels are able
       to seek out and capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos
       could call the collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off any
       inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 16:32:57</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1305059_-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tristan.reed@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1305171</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   Sean, just to be clear

   Your point is that Anonymous hasn't mattered?  Is your argument that
   hackers haven't mattered either?  because if Anonymous is a mob of hackers
   as you argue, how haven't they mattered to their targets?  what about all
   the money spent fighting them?  and as Tristan just pointed out - how
   about HBGary Federal?  He said the CEO's SSN and address were posted on
   Twitter.  What about all the sensitive emails that were lost?  We have no
   way of knowing what was in those emails, or how they are being used to
   make money at the expense of HBGary.  I have always agreed that they
   haven't reached a level of threat to the US, but that surely doesn't mean
   they won't.  And there are quite a few countries, organizations, and
   people below that rather high standard who could not withstand an attack,
   including an email purge of personal emails onto the web. 

   On 10/24/11 7:33 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     As far as Aurora, I haven't followed it closely. Did they ever identify
     the attackers or number of attackers? I thought the target set was the
     only thing that led people to believe the Chinese government was
     responsible.

     2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
     responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating cyber
     intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case HUMINT is
     just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT capabilities does not
     indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers. NSA may have there own
     department for tracking hackers but it does not make it SIGINT.

     Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

     Wikipedia provides an indepth explanation on SIGINT . But in short,
     SIGINT is the capability in exploiting signals provided by communication
     devices, and what can be obtained by exploiting the signals. Combining
     computer network operations and SIGINT is innaccurate, because while
     SIGINT may be used with other intelligence disciplines in order to
     identify a hacker, it is not necessary and is no more related than any
     other intel discipline. SIGINT could help you identify a computer
     devices (not the operator) emitting a signal (wifi), and cryptanalysis,
     which is also separate from SIGINT but often used in conjunction, could
     help in providing methods to decrypt messages over a network, but SIGINT
     wouldn't obtain those messages.

     In order to exploit computer network operations, the operators involved
     are specifically trained in computer science disciplines and
     technologies tailored specifically for computer activity.

     NSA also is the primary agency for cryptanalysis. Because of
     technological demands of SIGINT and cryptanalysis, NSA has enormous
     resources in R&amp;D, so I can see why the USG would move some CNO to NSA.
     But their SIGINT capabilities are not indicators of CNO capabilities.

     Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary labor
     for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are discussing
     operations on the scale of causing physical damage to extremely
     sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of a cyber attack that
     matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not mattered.  You chose the most
     prolific example of a cyber attack (which the whole operation consisted
     mainly outside of the cyber attack itself). Anything that falls short of
     this doesn't matter? Define what matters. None of anonymous' attacks
     have physically damaged secret Iranian nuclear facilities, but I think
     you are downplaying too much the significance of exposing corporate
     secrets, halting businesses' revenues, and embarrassing State actors by
     defacing their websites.

     On 10/24/11 5:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       On 10/24/11 5:07 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

         On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already The USG
           arrested 10 Russian spies last year, are you willing to say
           foreign intel is not capable of conducting espionage undetected?
           No, of course not.  But I also would not argue that the SVR is so
           good to be immune to detection, as you are arguing with hackers. 
           I'm saying they are more detectable than you think.  There is no
           such thing as truly anonymous.  Everythign leaves a trail.  Will
           that trail in every instance lead to a single individual? no.  but
           it can lead to a place, an organization, and often, an
           individual. 

           2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
           responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating
           cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this
           case HUMINT is just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT
           capabilities does not indicate its capabilities in tracking
           hackers. NSA may have there own department for tracking hackers
           but it does not make it SIGINT.

           Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

           The question is if the attack is high priority enough.  Many
           people assume there is no attribution because there is no
           response, but I don't think that is accurate.  Many people say
           this, because no attribution is one reason for no response.  Yes,
           they do, and if they think that is the primary reason for lack of
           response, then I think they are wrong. 

           3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new
           laptop and start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack
           involves much more than a recently bought laptop.  In the same way
           there is an attack cycle for a terrorist attack or crime, there is
           one for a cyber attack.  A very simple attack may be as hard to
           trace as a nearly-random mugging in the dark in a neighborhood
           with much more serious crime and no CCTV cameras.  A more
           complicated attack, however, involves pre-operational
           surveillance, developing exploits, developing programs and code,
           gaining access, exploiting that, and carrying out an attack. 
           Discovering exploits and writing code can be done entirely
           offline, out of sight of law enforcement or intel agencies.
           Pre-operational surveillance and gaining access (the point of the
           exploit you write offline) would fit in my example. The point is,
           if you don't link your computer to identifiable information, you
           remain anonymous. Just like people use certain methods to build
           IEDs, people use certain mehtods to design programs and code for
           cyber attacks.  Over time, those methods become identifiable and
           more and more attributable. This is, for example, how AURORA is
           linked back to the Chinese.  and very specific Chinese, I may add.
           Being connected or unconnected doesn't matter, eventually you have
           to use what you develop, or copy from someone, and all of those
           things can be analyzed.   And that takes time, giving more time
           for your exposure Exposure comes from network activity with the
           target, a lot of the pre-operational phase of an attack can occur
           without network activity. Look at everything that went into
           Stuxnet as a great example, that couldn't be done with one person
           with a new laptop. Writing the code and hacking was just a small
           part of necessary labor for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't
           think we are discussing operations on the scale of causing
           physical damage to extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is
           an example of a cyber attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so
           far has not mattered.   All of this activity provides activity and
           evidence which helps for attribution.  Of course it is always
           possible to develop an attack, just like any other operation, that
           even the best law enforcement and national intelligence agencies
           have trouble or cannot attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that
           it's very difficult for someone to successfully use Anonymous as a
           cover and have NSA, GHQ, MID, Aman, etc, be unable to attribute
           it.  How do you know if NSA or GHQ is effective in identifying
           hackers?I don't, but I'm confident they are far better than you
           are allowing for.    They may not choose to cover it if it is
           small scale crime, however. 
           On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored
             cyber warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing
             that, since you can conduct a cyber attack without associating
             with a hacker group and still deny / cover actions on behalf of
             the State. An individual attacking US computer assets from
             China, may be working by himself or on behalf of the Chinese
             government, but unless the US has other intel on the Chinese
             government's cyber warfare activities in order to corroborate
             there is little capability to distinguish.

             It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
             operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets
             from SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual
             responsible for hacking State run servers. In the past, I have
             turned to SIGINT organizations for collections on computer
             related material, but this was due to the US being behind in
             cyber warfare, and not knowing where to assign responsibility.
             However, this has changed dramatically in the last couple of
             years.

             Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As
             an extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go
             to a Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the
             online activity to something revealing (accessing personal email
             accounts, tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop,
             etc..), and begin hacking government email accounts then never
             use the laptop again. Unless LEA could get an accurate
             description of my appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible
             security cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

             Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to
             these enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied
             to specific computer-related activities because of the
             difficulty in identifying individuals.

             I think the most likely way for a "Anonymous cover" to be blown,
             would be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a
             common participant in "Anonymous" activities, was working for a
             State? Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that
             State agent organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter
             buddies, what signs could a LEA look for to distinguish?

             On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

               In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a
               bit)

               1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything
               actually harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't,
               but i'm very doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first
               real case where they could do some minor damage--to individual
               people, not not to an organization or anything that would come
               as a serious or strategic threat. 

               2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is
               actually pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as
               a cover, but that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could
               probably still be attributed if important enough to those
               agencies.  The recent attack on Sony actually brings this
               issue up- Whoever is calling themselves anonymous denies they
               did it.  And keep in mind how much they have claimed an
               publicized attacks in the past, even before they were carried
               out.  The attack on the Playstation Network was more
               sophisticated than anonymous' usual work (though potentially
               coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that distracted
               Sony's IT security).  But whoever did it, again, no real
               damage came of it.  Congress is holding hearings over data
               security, but this is no different than the OC groups stealing
               your credit card information.  LE will go after them, have
               some success, but the threat is not that large. 
               On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

                 Link: themeData

                 I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to
                 have a broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no
                 nothing, or almost nothing about what this group is and the
                 threat it poses. Reviewing their list of attacks
                 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in
                 most of the cases, they are the "good" guys, sort of a Robin
                 Hood of the internet . The interesting thing when it comes
                 to their interactions with the cartels is the dubious role
                 they play: at the same time they can be fighting crime by
                 revealing cartel members/supporters, but they can also put
                 lives in risk.

                 However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
                 Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth,
                 can conduct a cyber attack under "Anonymous" is worrisome.
                 (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

                 If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
                 websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to
                 know more about these guys. Who they are? What are they
                 interested in? How they operate? Who they have targeted so
                 far? How can I defend myself from them? In what countries
                 are they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use
                 them to achieve any particular goal?

                 On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                   nice.  i still think the central focus, and what
                   everything else can build off of, is that Anonymous
                   doesn't know the threat they pose to innocent people
                   caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing on
                   journalists or taxi drivers they show little understanding
                   of the situation.  This has long term implications in not
                   just Mexico.  They don't consider the consequences of
                   their actions and they act without understanding the
                   environment.  It was the same when they released
                   information on the Sony Playstation network to protest
                   Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

                   On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                     Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of
                     discussing possible cartel responses, the focus is on
                     what type of threat Anonymous can pose to cartels. The
                     video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing
                     personal information on cartels as well as states a
                     member had been kidnapped. I could not find any sources
                     outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being
                     kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous
                     Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be
                     an individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the
                     Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is
                     speculation.

                     Link: themeData
                     Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
                     distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on
                     government websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the
                     Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's criminal
                     cartels, including a video depicting a masked individual
                     addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the
                     most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats
                     towards the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as
                     releasing identities of taxi drivers, police,
                     politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal
                     cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a
                     fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. In
                     the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                     mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                     reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped
                     member are not met. The potential of conflict between
                     Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents a unique
                     threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out at
                     online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on
                     cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

                     What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                          o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical
                     security threat to Mexican cartels.
                          o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to
                     exploit online media
                          o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico
                     to lash out at cartels

                     While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to
                     pose a threat
                          o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to
                     possess identifiable information on cartel members
                          o     It is unknown what information Anonymous
                     could acquire on cartels
                          o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
                     communications, identifiable information on cartels
                     members have to be considered in the realm of
                     possibilities for
                                 Anonymous
                                 o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability
                     to reveal illicit online activity (child pornography
                     rings)

                     Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
                     ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
                     result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
                     limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting
                     in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any
                     possible retribution. They may not even know the impact
                     of any online assault of cartels.
                          o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
                     journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not
                     understand some of these individuals are forced to
                     collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are
                     often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
                     halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals
                     will not have a significant impact on cartel            
                           operations. Politicans have been accused of
                     working with cartels (Guerrero &amp; Veracruz' governor)
                     before, however there has yet to be any consequences
                     from this.
                          o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the
                     extent cartels are willing to go protect their
                     operations.
                             o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                             o    Cartels have reached out to the computer
                     science community before, coercing computer science
                     majors into working for them.
                             o    This provides the cartels with the
                     possibility of discovering hackers within Mexico.

                      

                     On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                       Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the
                       idea but there are several issues to address and fix
                       here.

                       These are the bullets of my main analytical concern
                       with the discussion:

                            o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why.
                       that's fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                            o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a
                       difference between stealing bank records from
                       government computers and overloading www.loszetas.com
                       main page.
                            o     There's no thought out process of what sort
                       of information could anon have on the cartels. What
                       kind of info is kept online and accessible to
                       potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
                       identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
                       politicians and businessmen who need to worry about
                       what anon is going to be saying. Think about why the
                       bloggers and media were killed in previous instances.
                       Was it because they revealed operational details,
                       because they acted as informants, because they exposed
                       links with officials or because they somehow sullied
                       the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
                       information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                            o     Once you identify this info - think about
                       if anon can realistically access it and disseminate it
                       so it causes a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have
                       any intelligence capacity except for the technical
                       ability by a very small number of its members to
                       infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
                       information. Now what kind of information would a
                       cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
                       internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
                       information be found? Government databases? Once we
                       know what kind of information is accessible, we can
                       also know more about the consequences of
                       dissemination.
                            o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel?
                       Sufficient to trace back attacks? If it's not, there
                       risks to be a lot of killings done by people who may
                       not understand the difference between an anon hacker
                       and a blogger.

                       On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                         wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                         -------- Original Message --------

                          Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                             Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                             From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
                         Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                               To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

                         you've got some of the issues here, but this is
                         going to need a lot more work

                         You need to lay out:

                         a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your
                         trigger section is unclear
                         b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence
                         is, and therefore their vulnerabilities and
                         capabilities
                         c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high
                         security anything
                         d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to
                         kill anyone who breaches their systems or exposes
                         their connections

                         I also just want to point out that we have
                         reasonable reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very
                         least has some significant levels of sophistication
                         in their online presence, to include the use of
                         cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
                         is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also
                         conduct business online, in a protected fashion.

                         Karen Hooper
                         Latin America Analyst
                         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                         c: 512.750.7234
                         STRATFOR
                         www.stratfor.com
                         On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                         On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                         Link: themeData

                         Trigger

                         Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy,
                         hackers. Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group
                         famous for...?, lashed out at drug cartels via the
                         Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
                         criminal cartels, including a video released
                         depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a
                         screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent video
                         release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                         criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing
                         identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers,
                         police, politicians, and journalists who collude
                         with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los
                         Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
                         face consequences. The potential of conflict between
                         Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
                         unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly
                         different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas
                         leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have
                         little experience in handling. i believe that
                         Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
                         not believe for a second that the cartels have no
                         experience with hackers.

                          

                         In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
                         was mentioned as a day cartels could expect
                         Anonymous' reaction if their demands of releasing a
                         kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up
                         front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is
                         threatening to hit back. Provide enough details so
                         we understand who this guy is and why/how he was
                         abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of
                         possessing revealing information on cartel members
                         and operations are true, cartels will likely respond
                         with violence against individuals revealed as
                         opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous
                         members?. It also is likely that public disclosure
                         of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force
                         the GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat
                         complexity i don't understand what this means. You
                         mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
                         effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
                         against Anonymous remains unanswered . However,
                         cartels will continue their threats against any
                         individual using online media WC.... you mean tools?
                         or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here.
                         against the cartels.

                          

                         The Battle Space

                         Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two
                         separate realities from each other. Anonymous
                         operates solely in sphere of the computer networks.
                         Anonymous does not experience geographical
                         boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
                         exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely
                         true. They are physical people tho live in the real
                         world. They have names and addresses - although most
                         of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power
                         base consists of their technical capabilities in
                         hacking. Any information connected to the Internet
                         is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying
                         the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst
                         of Mexico's population could be quite difficult.
                          Remember that most of what Anonymous has done are
                         DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big
                         company with a website that brings in revenue, but
                         it does not really matter if you don't run
                         operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money
                         via e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on
                         the web than the jihadists.)

                         Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but
                         it's power base consists of the perceived anonymity
                         that its members believe themselves to have, real or
                         otherwise, by operating through the internet. This
                         gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
                         and everything to practice general dickery. As the
                         popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll.
                         Only a fraction of the large web of people who
                         identify themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of
                         serious IT capability. 

                         The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so
                         far has been from targeted arrests by Law
                         Enforcement Agencies.

                         The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the
                         streets in US and Mexican cities. They are run as a
                         business, always looking to maximize profits and
                         expand. But they are bricks and mortar commerce.
                         Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
                         and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that
                         from insight. There is no reason to assume that Los
                         Zetas don't have a similar capacity.  Their power
                         base is built by large amounts of revenue and
                         escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas,
                         are experienced in facing different types of
                         threats. Cartels are always suffering at the hands
                         of cartel on cartel violence. While battling each
                         other, cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement
                         Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in
                         the flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted
                         media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
                         bloggers in order to cover details of their
                         operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng
                         for this discussion. You need to focus on the
                         possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just
                         assume they have no cyber presence.

                          

                         Anonymous' Weapons

                         Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous'
                         actions against criminal cartels has yet to be seen.
                         Anonymous' only ability to combat cartels lay in
                         information operations, mainly disseminating
                         sensitive information on cartels and propagating
                         anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced
                         websites in Mexico you mean so far and that we know
                         of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
                         cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The
                         significance of a targeted information operations
                         campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
                         overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels
                         view main stream media outlets and social media
                         blogs as such a threat to their operations, that
                         they have continued to target journalists and
                         bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas
                         was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly,
                         on the body of a blogger. The message threatened any
                         users who denounce cartels on blogging websites.
                         getting repetitive here, and it's not really
                         addressing the subheading

                         As stated earlier, any information connected to the
                         internet risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is
                         ample reason to suggest Anonymous is capable of
                         possessing information they threaten to release. By
                         releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
                         Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of
                         those individuals. Anonymous's ability to
                         disseminate sensitive information is limited by what
                         is available via the Internet. Government computers
                         connected to the Internet should always be
                         considered a possibility of an attack. However, as
                         with the compartmentalized nature of the US
                         governments computer networks, information available
                         to Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy
                         to acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This
                         isn't clear at all

                          

                         Cartel's Defense

                                     A counter response to the video? by the
                         cartels has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous'
                         claims of a kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest
                         Los Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by
                         hackers so... how has there not been a counter
                         response? also this undermines your statements above
                         about how Anonymous is soley internet based, and
                         underlines the vulnerabilities of associated
                         members. How did they find teh Anonymous member? The
                         answer to that could very well give you some
                         indication to the technical ability of the cartels .
                         As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
                         wide web , the cartels will face a number of
                         challenges which rarely are posed for them Again,
                         how do you know? The USG has whole agencies
                         dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can
                         assume (and we have good intel indicating that) they
                         are working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers
                         threatening cartels, can operate in any region of
                         the world. Personal information including locations
                         is only available if a hacker chooses to divulge it
                         or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
                         figure it out. Hackers don't only work for
                         Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with
                         their online enemy, if they can physically reach out
                         to them. Or start employing hackers of their own
                         under their payroll? Stranger things have happened,
                         Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                                     Cartels have been known to coerce the
                         services of Mexican citizens with a technical
                         background. Recruiting the help of computer science
                         majors through personal threats has been reported in
                         the past where? What cartels? reported where?. 
                         Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence
                         and drug trafficking, they will likely need the
                         assistance of technical experts to help combat any
                         threat by computer hackers.  While identifying
                         bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it
                         is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any
                         hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
                         enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more
                         technical experience and resources than cartels,
                         struggle to find hackers through investigations. A)
                         How do you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the
                         guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that
                         not all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                                     In order to compete with an online foe,
                         cartels will likely continue counter tactics they
                         are most familiar with, brute force. Cartels are
                         still capable of their HUMINT operations within
                         Mexico "still"? why would we assume they wouldn't
                         be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
                         communities will likely be targeted and interrogated
                         by cartel members.  Narco banners and public display
                         of violence will likely continue to be used to scare
                         online media into submission i'm not really seeing
                         the online media-international hacking group
                         connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
                         inflict harm, is something computer hackers have
                         unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether
                         the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence
                         of Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels
                         are able to seek out and capture members of the
                         hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the
                         collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off any
                         inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

               --

               Sean Noonan

               Tactical Analyst

               Office: +1 512-279-9479

               Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

               Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

               www.stratfor.com

           --

           Sean Noonan

           Tactical Analyst

           Office: +1 512-279-9479

           Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

           Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

           www.stratfor.com

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-25 02:47:49</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1305171_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>colby.martin@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1307791</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-11 13:59:34</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1307791_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1310030</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - IRAN/US/SYRIA - Iran reaching out to US on
	post-Assad set-up? - ME1 and ME1386
</title>
    <description>   What does the source think about the possibility of a palace coup that
   isn't accepted by the SNC, FSA, people in the street or some combination
   thereof? Also does source know what the Iranians think about such a
   scenario (assuming they have considered it)

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2011 6:07:16 PM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - IRAN/US/SYRIA - Iran reaching out to US on
   post-Assad set-up? - ME1 and ME1386

   my bad, that should read HZ politburo

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Michael Wilson" &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2011 10:00:59 AM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - IRAN/US/SYRIA - Iran reaching out to US on
   post-Assad set-up? - ME1 and ME1386

   You say HZ source but notes say member of Hamas politburo

   On 12/13/11 9:29 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Reva's note - this is extremely interesting, especially the bolded part
     below. DOes Iran really think it can convince the US to collaborate with
     them on regime change in SYria in such a way that will end up in Iran's
     favor? the whole point of the US focusing in on Syria is to contain Iran
     in the first place. This sounds like the Iranians are getting to be in
     an increasingly desperate position. Always be wary of source bias, but
     why would a HZ source want to spread info on the weakness of the Syrian
     regime and the lack of options for Iran?  I do believe the part about
     Iran preferring a palace coup over the Turkish strategy of building up
     an opposition via FSA.

     SOURCE: ME1 and ME1386
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: ME1 and member of Hamas politburo
     PUBLICATION: Yes - worth a tactical analysis
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: B-C
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: B-C
     SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
     SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

     Marhaba Reva,
     I strongly believe that Asad's regime will fall in 2012. The
     conventional wisdom that Asad will survive, because both Iran and Israel
     view him with favor, is a thing of the past. The situation in Syria has
     reached the point of no return. It is true than nine months of
     demonstrations have not brought down the regime but, by the same token,
     regime brutality and heavy handedness have not quelled the uprising. If
     anything, the level of hostilities and army defections is on the rise.

     The breaking point will come when the military establishment realizes
     that Asad must go. There are signs that the military establishment is
     beginning to disintegrate. I talked to [ME1386] and he told me that
     Alawite officers and enlisted men are beginning to join the ranks of the
     FSA. This represents a major development. Alawite officers are divided
     since many of them are unhappy about the use of excessive force against
     Sunni protesters.  Alawite officers are aware that Asad is trying to
     find an asylum for himself and his family should his regime become
     unslavageable. This is upsetting many Alawites who are coming to realize
     that Asad will abandon them. If so, they reason that it would be
     suicidal to continue to win the wrath of the Sunnis. Walid al-Muallim
     offered to resign but Asad turned down his request. This is a clear
     indicator that many of Asad's men are realizing that they are putting a
     vain fight against the burgeoning uprising.

     The Iranians are weighing in the situation in Syria very carefully. One
     must read beyond the public statements of the Iranians, especially
     ayatollah Khamenei. Both Khamenei and Ahmadinejad have concluded that
     Asad's regime cannot be rescued. It is perfectly understood that the
     regime in Damascus will fall along lines similar to the Libyan model.
     There will have to be a coup in Damascus, be it a military or political
     one.

     One must not dismiss the pragmatism of Khamenei. Iran appears to be
     willing to use its influence in Syria to stage a coup, provided that it
     is able to ensure that the new leadership will continue to pursue
     excellent relations with Tehran. The Iranians have approached the
     Americans on this. In the past, Iran collaborated with the U.S. on the
     ouster of Saddam Hussein and Iran won big in Iraq. The Iranians would
     not mind working again on ousting Asad if they can secure good results
     in Syria. Syria's contiguity to Iraq allows Iran to play a direct role
     in the affairs of Damascus.

     The Iranians feel they need to act on Syria soon because the Turks have
     their own plans for Syria and are not coordinating with the Iranians. He
     says the Turks are moving slowly but systematically. Iran does not want
     to allow Turkey to take over Syria. Whereas the Turks are coordinating
     with the Brotherhood and the FSA, the Iranians prefer a palace coup in
     damascus in order to maintain their ties with Asad's successors. What is
     delaying action in Syria is the fact that the U.S. has not yet decided
     on the shape of the post-Asad political system. Nevertheless, he insists
     that Asad's regime will fall, although the future of Syria after the
     regime change remains nebulous.

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com

   --
   Nick Grinstead
   Regional Monitor
   STRATFOR
   Beirut, Lebanon
   +96171969463
</description>
    <date>2011-12-13 17:09:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1310030_re-alpha-insight-iran-us-syria-iran-reaching-out-to-us-on.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>nick.grinstead@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1318720</id>
    <title>Re: [Fwd: Fred letter]
</title>
    <description>   My edits, incorporating Matt's edits:

   Figuring out who Fred Burton is and what he does at STRATFOR isn't easy.
   His first book was called Ghost and it's a fitting title for him.

    

   Inside of STRATFOR, Fred is Chief Security Officer. He oversees a group we
   call "tactical intelligence." Tactical intelligence sweats the small
   things because small things frequently turn out not to be small at all. So
   if it is something that goes boom, something that involves mayhem,
   something where people disappear, kill each other or smuggle drugs-Fred
   and his team work on it. At first glance, you may think such short-term
   details don't belong at STRATFOR, since our focus is the big picture of
   geopolitics. But those are the details that keep us honest, that can throw
   a wrench into our entire big picture assessment, forcing us to
   re-evaluate. Fred and his team constantly challenge our assumptions.

    

   To do this, Fred uses a skill set and experiences few people in the world
   possess. He began as a cop, and then moved on to the Department of State
   Security service, which protects foreign diplomats in the United States
   and American diplomats abroad. During his time in DSS, Fred got involved
   in investigations himself, in particular capturing Ramsey Youssef, the
   terrorist who bombed the World Trade Center in 1993.

    

   He's written a new book (didn't realize Fred could write; always thought
   his specialty was wisecracking at the coffee station) that's called
   "Chasing Shadows." It's about the unsolved murder of an Israeli air
   attache in the 1970s in Washington and Fred's decades-long quest to solve
   it. The case sheds light on how intelligence services operate-and how
   nations play hardball with each other. It starts with the tactical details
   and builds up to the big picture of international relations, much like the
   way our tactical and geopolitical teams work together.

    

   Despite his elusive persona, Fred's more than a colleague. He's my friend
   and he covers my back-or, more precisely, he thinks I can't cover my back
   myself. Either way he's a good man and STRATFOR is lucky to have him. I
   highly recommend this book because in a fluid and personable fashion it
   tells an important story from 1973 with a lasting effect on geopolitics
   today.

    

   If you enjoy the book, you'll love the work Fred &amp; his team produce at
   STRATFOR.... [sales pitch here?]

   On 3/7/11 4:50 PM, Matthew Solomon wrote:

     My cut at George's letter

     Figuring out who Fred Burton is and what he does isn't easy.  His first
     book was called Ghost and it's a fitting title for him.

      

     Inside of STRATFOR, Fred is Chief Security Officer. He oversees our
     security analysis, which is part of a division of the company we call
     "tactical intelligence.  Tactical sweats the small stuff, because small
     stuff frequently turns out to be not small at all. If something goes
     boom, something involves mayhem, something makes people disappear-Fred
     and his team in tactical intelligence work on it. At first glance you
     may think this doesn't belong at STRATFOR, our focus being the big
     picture, geopolitics and the like. But the big picture can't be
     understood without the individual smaller pieces, and sometimes those
     little things are clues the ordinary mind would have never suspected.

      

     To do this, Fred uses a skill set and experiences few other people in
     the world possess. During his time in DSS, Fred ran a program that paid
     bounties to those who turned in terrorists. He eventually got involved
     in investigations himself, in particular capturing Ramsey Youssef, the
     terrorist who initially bombed the World Trade Center in 1993.

      

     He's written a new book (didn't realize Fred could write; always thought
     his specialty was wisecracking at the coffee machine) that's called
     "Chasing Shadows." It's about the unsolved assassination of an Israeli
     air attache in the 1970s and how the case's unraveling sheds light on
     the manner in which intelligence services operate-and therefore how they
     play hardball with each other. It starts with small things and builds to
     the big things; similar to the way our security team builds its
     analysis.

      

     Despite his elusive persona and frequent disappearing acts, personally
     Fred's more than a colleague. He's a friend and contributes a lot to
     this organization. Either way he's a good man and STRATFOR is lucky to
     have him. I recommend you read this book because, in a fluid and
     personable fashion it tells an important story and gives you a sense
     what STRATFOR does behind the scenes and how it does it. It is an
     interesting insight into how we think and things we worry about that
     might surprise you.

     On 3/7/11 4:39 PM, Megan Headley wrote:

       Rodger's response to why we have Fred: "eye candy"

       On 3/7/11 3:03 PM, Darryl O'Connor wrote:

         fyi

     --

     Matthew Solomon
     Online Sales Manager
     STRATFOR

     T: 512-744-4300 ext 4095
     F: 512-744-4334
     C: 817-271-7709
     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-03-08 00:15:49</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1318720_re-fwd-fred-letter-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>oconnor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>megan.headley@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>matthew.solomon@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1327642</id>
    <title>Makled's Threat to the Venezuelan Regime
</title>
    <description>    Stratfor logo                                                             
   Makled's Threat to the Venezuelan Regime                                   
                                                                              
    November 8, 2010 | 2049 GMT                                               
    Makled's Threat to the Venezuelan Regime                                  
    SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP/Getty Images                                          
    Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez in Kiev on Oct. 18                       
    Summary                                                                   
                                                                              
    Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez issued a broadcast from the Cuban        
    capital Nov. 8 warning that the United States was launching a massive     
    disinformation campaign against his regime through captured drug kingpin  
    Walid Makled. Makled, who is currently being held by Colombia and is      
    being requested for extradition by the United States, is very valuable    
    to Bogota and potentially to Washington given the information he          
    allegedly possesses on money-laundering and drug-trafficking connections  
    to senior Venezuelan government members. His fate is still undetermined   
    but could have significant implications for Venezuelan-Colombian          
    relations, U.S.-Colombian relations and most important, the               
    sustainability of the Chavez regime.                                      
                                                                              
    Analysis                                                                  
                                                                              
    During a visit to the Cuban capital Nov. 8, Venezuelan President Hugo     
    Chavez made a speech in which he condemned the United States for trying   
    to manipulate the case of captured drug kingpin Walid Makled. Chavez      
    said, "The game of the empire is to offer incentives to that man          
    (Makled), including protection, so that he can start vomiting all he      
    wants against Venezuela and its president. Then the empire will try to    
    manipulate all the lies that man can say." Chavez went on to say that     
    the United States can "pretend" to use Makled to create a list of         
    narcotrafficking and terrorism charges against Venezuela in an            
    international criminal court of justice, similar to the U.S. pursuit of   
    Panamanian military leader Manuel Noriega.                                
                                                                              
    Makled, the man responsible for Chavez's most recent display of anxiety,  
    is a Lebanese-born Venezuelan national who has earned a reputation as a   
    global drug kingpin. Upon U.S. President Barack Obama's request, Makled   
    was added to the U.S. list of most wanted drug traffickers in May 2009    
    and was arrested on Aug. 19 by Colombian police in Cucuta, Norte de       
    Santander department.                                                     
                                                                              
     Cause for Chavez's Concern                                               
                                                                              
    Makled is believed to have worked closely with senior members of the      
    Venezuelan government, possibly including Chavez himself, before his      
    relationship with the regime went sour around late 2008. According to a   
    STRATFOR source, Makled had a valuable insurance policy in dealing with   
    the Venezuelan political and military officials, always taking care to    
    record his interactions in case he needed to one day negotiate his way    
    out of a prison sentence, or worse.                                       
                                                                              
    That day has come, and Makled is now in high demand in Bogota, Caracas    
    and Washington. Colombia holds the keys to Makled's fate and understands  
    well the bargaining power it holds by keeping Makled within its           
    jurisdiction. When Colombia and Venezuela restored diplomatic and trade   
    relations in September, shortly after Colombian President Juan Manuel     
    Santos took office, STRATFOR raised the question of what additional       
    leverage Bogota might have had. The rapid rapprochement between Bogota    
    and Caracas was not solely due to Colombia's need to alleviate pressures  
    on businessmen on the border who depended on trade with Venezuela for     
    their livelihood, nor was it simply the result of a personal power        
    struggle between Santos and his more hawkish predecessor, as many         
    erroneously speculated (Santos and former President Alvaro Uribe Velez,   
    in fact, have worked very closely together on Venezuela, among other      
    issues). When STRATFOR began receiving reports of the Venezuelan          
    military quietly shutting down Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia     
    (FARC) camps and flushing FARC members back across the border into        
    Colombia, it was evident that Bogota was holding something big over       
    Chavez's head.                                                            
                                                                              
    Makled appears to be that critical factor. As STRATFOR has covered in     
    depth, the Venezuelan regime has seen a number of its massive laundering  
    rackets spiral out of control over recent months, leading to the gradual  
    decay of critical state sectors including food, electricity, energy and   
    metals. As the situation deteriorated in recent years and as the cash     
    flow to state firms was affected more, the intersection between the       
    money-laundering rackets and drug trafficking has grown deeper. For       
    example, for those state entities that are running into serious cash      
    flow problems, local drug dealers can provide local currency and filter   
    their drug money through the exchange rate regime. The drug revenues      
    could also be used to finance support for designated terrorist groups     
    like FARC and the National Liberation Army. Layered on top of these       
    relationships was Venezuela's growing relationship with Iran and          
    indications of increased Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force    
    activity in Venezuela with Chavez's approval.                             
                                                                              
    Makled's testimony, therefore, could be bought by the United States in    
    exchange for protection, a reduced sentence or other measures in order    
    to build up a case against the Chavez government on money-laundering,     
    drug-trafficking and possibly terrorism charges. Indeed, district courts  
    in Miami and New York are already building such cases against high-level  
    Venezuelan officials, prompting Chavez to publicly warn in May that a     
    district court in Miami could indict him and his inner circle on          
    money-laundering and drug-trafficking charges. It would take a decision   
    by the U.S. administration to allow these cases involving senior and      
    active members of the regime to proceed, given the diplomatic crisis      
    that would ensue, but holding that threat alone, along with the strong    
    potential for intelligence sharing between Bogota and Washington over     
    Makled, is enough to generate serious concern within the upper echelons   
    of the regime.                                                            
                                                                              
     Domestic Trouble Ahead for Chavez?                                       
                                                                              
    As the vulnerability of his government has increased, Chavez has thus     
    placed greater emphasis on the need to rapidly expand the National        
    Bolivarian Militia (a way to complicate any coup attempts against him     
    while he has become increasingly beholden to external supporters like     
    China, Cuba, Russia and Iran). Doubts over Chavez's ability to hold onto  
    power and concerns over whether senior political and military leaders     
    could be sacrificed in a bargain over criminal indictments are likely to  
    create a great deal of friction within the regime. And the more friction  
    within the regime, the more likely the unity of the armed forces will be  
    strained. This may explain why Chavez ally and confidante Gen. Henry      
    Rangel Silva, Venezuela's chief of Strategic Operational Command of the   
    armed forces, felt the need to announce Nov. 8 that the military is       
    "wedded" to Chavez's political project and that the president has the     
    armed forces' "complete loyalty."                                         
                                                                              
    Given the controversy over Makled's capture and the other major stresses  
    on the regime, that loyalty cannot be assured. Chavez has been pressing   
    Bogota to extradite Makled to Venezuela - an act that could lead to       
    Makled's demise or disappearance. The United States is also bargaining    
    for Makled's extradition; a New York Federal Court formally indicted      
    Makled on Nov. 4. When Santos traveled to Caracas to meet with Chavez on  
    Nov. 3, the Venezuelan president urged his Colombian counterpart to hand  
    Makled over (he has been asking for his extradition since September).     
    Santos failed to give him any assurances, leading Chavez and Rangel       
    Silva to warn Nov. 8 that the United States was working to wreck the      
    Colombian-Venezuelan rapprochement.                                       
                                                                              
    The issue of Makled's extradition is likely factoring into Colombia's     
    current dealings with the United States over the status of their          
    relationship, including how to proceed with an expanded military basing   
    agreement. The agreement is in political limbo after Colombia's           
    Constitutional Court declared it unconstitutional because it was signed   
    under Uribe without congressional approval, though U.S. forces in the     
    area appear to be operating with little disruption. Though Colombia       
    remains interested in maintaining a close defense relationship with the   
    United States, it is also looking for a more equitable partnership with   
    Washington - one that will entail technology-sharing rights and free      
    trade concessions. These broader negotiations are still under way, and    
    the Makled extradition is one more bargaining chip at Bogota's disposal   
    as the United States looks to Colombia as its main military foothold in   
    South America.                                                            
                                                                              
    As of now, there is no clear answer as to what will become of Makled.     
    There is no doubt, however, that he is a prize for Bogota and             
    Washington, and his testimony could pose a significant threat to the      
    sustainability of the Chavez regime.                                      
                                                                              
    Give us your thoughts                          Read comments on           
    on this report                                 other reports              
                                                                              
    For Publication                                Reader Comments            
                                                                              
    Not For Publication                                                       
    Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                                
    (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
</description>
    <date>2010-11-08 22:46:26</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-09 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1327642_makled-s-threat-to-the-venezuelan-regime-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>allstratfor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>noreply@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1328899</id>
    <title>The Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks' Survival
</title>
    <description>    Stratfor logo                                                             
   The Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks' Survival                                 
                                                                              
    December 7, 2010 | 1646 GMT                                               
    The Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks' Survival                                
    FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP/Getty Images                                         
    WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange at the United Nations office in Geneva   
    on Nov. 5                                                                 
    Summary                                                                   
                                                                              
    WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange surrendered to authorities in Britain    
    on Dec. 7, following an Interpol Red Notice based on a Swedish arrest     
    warrant. WikiLeaks is a relatively young organization with one leader     
    and has not institutionalized a set of practices and protocols that       
    guarantee its survival even if the personnel changes. Assange's arrest    
    will test the organization's ability to maintain itself, but the use of   
    the Internet to leak documents will continue.                             
                                                                              
    Analysis                                                                  
    Related Special Topic Page                                                
      * The WikiLeaks Releases                                                
                                                                              
    London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and       
    public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 9:30 a.m. local time on Dec. 7 after   
    Assange turned himself in. He is due to appear in a court in Westminster  
    soon over sexual assault charges filed against him in Sweden, and faces   
    possible extradition.                                                     
                                                                              
    There is considerable interest in what his arrest will mean for his       
    organization. WikiLeaks organized a new method for an old practice -      
    leaking confidential government information in an attempt to influence    
    politics. And while Assange's arrest could disrupt the long-term          
    viability of WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release of the current       
    batch of diplomatic cables in the short term, nor will it stop similar    
    future leaks via the Internet.                                            
                                                                              
    Leadership is extremely important in nongovernmental organizations that   
    have not institutionalized to the point where their dominant figures are  
    replaceable and members can adapt to changing circumstance. From          
    terrorist groups to charities, new organizations often rise and fall      
    with their founders. Assange created WikiLeaks with himself as the only   
    public face - he leads supporters, drives donations, gives interviews     
    and faces the resulting criticism. There have been reports of internal    
    dissent and tensions, and in one interview with CNN, a discussion of the  
    organization's internal politics seemed to touch a nerve with Assange.    
    If Assange were to face charges in Sweden for sexual assault or new       
    charges in the United Kingdom or the United States and was found guilty,  
    WikiLeaks would still need someone to oversee it. Assange may have        
    someone ready to fill the leadership void, but there has been no          
    evidence of this.                                                         
                                                                              
    In addition to having its leadership threatened, WikiLeaks has suffered   
    logistically. As national governments put pressure on its                 
    infrastructure, its web server has been shut down, and most important, a  
    major source of funding, PayPal, has closed WikiLeaks' account (Visa and  
    Mastercard have also banned payments from their cards to WikiLeaks). It   
    is also possible the events of the past few months will deter other       
    potential leakers from approaching WikiLeaks as opposed to other          
    organizations (especially if they dislike or disagree with Assange).      
    Moreover, this new set of documents has not been greeted with the         
    reaction Assange expected - the U.S. public is not angry at the State     
    Department, but many are angry at Assange and his organization.           
                                                                              
    Immediately following Assange's arrest, a WikiLeaks spokesman said the    
    arrest would not stop the group's operations. Indeed, whether Assange     
    remains behind bars or not, it most likely will not stop the continued    
    release of the 250,000 U.S. State Department cables, only a fraction of   
    which have been released thus far. It also will not shut down WikiLeaks,  
    which still maintains its website - albeit currently on a Swiss server,   
    after its initial U.S.-hosted servers were deactivated - and the ability  
    to collect information from leakers. So in the short term, WikiLeaks      
    will persist. The question remains if Assange created a truly             
    sustainable institution.                                                  
                                                                              
    If Assange is extradited to Sweden and tried on one count of unlawful     
    coercion, two counts of sexual molestation and one count of rape, it is   
    not clear to what degree the image of WikiLeaks will be damaged; thus     
    far Assange has cultivated the site as an extension of his persona, and   
    even without the assault charges he is not held in high repute. The       
    extradition process could take months or even years, and he may try to    
    use prison time to develop his image as a martyr for free speech, but     
    this can backfire. If WikiLeaks, however, is not tied to his image, it    
    will be much more sustainable as an organization.                         
                                                                              
    Western governments also fear whatever is contained in his "insurance"    
    file, a 1.4-gigabyte computer file that has already been distributed to   
    many thousands of people over the Internet. Assange has threatened to     
    release the encryption password if something happens to him. As STRATFOR  
    has stated before, WikiLeaks likely led with its most insightful          
    documents, and thus those saved in the insurance file are probably less   
    enlightening than they are damaging. The file may contain no new          
    information at all, but simply the names and information on sources,      
    diplomats, military and intelligence officers not already disclosed.      
    Such a release could put these individuals' jobs or even lives at risk.   
    However, such a release exposing these individuals in a vindictive        
    manner could further tarnish Assange and WikiLeaks in the eyes of the     
    international public, to include potential financial and information      
    contributors. Beyond that, governments will almost certainly take         
    stronger measures against WikiLeaks if it does release identities of      
    classified sources or officers.                                           
                                                                              
    WikiLeaks is now facing a conundrum that all new organizations face at    
    some point - the ability to maintain and transition leadership through    
    adverse circumstances. Assange may be released quickly, but if he is      
    not, WikiLeaks' survival will be in question. However, even if WikiLeaks  
    disappears, the organizational concept will continue, and leaks along     
    with it. WikiLeaks has only demonstrated the ability new technology has   
    created to transfer large quantities of documents, and there is no        
    reason other organizations will not make use of the same technology.      
                                                                              
    Give us your thoughts                          Read comments on           
    on this report                                 other reports              
                                                                              
    For Publication                                Reader Comments            
                                                                              
    Not For Publication                                                       
    Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                                
    (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 18:38:06</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1328899_the-assange-arrest-and-wikileaks-survival-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>noreply@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1333034</id>
    <title>Special Report: Venezuela's Unsustainable Economic Paradigm
</title>
    <description>    Stratfor logo                        August 4, 2010                       
   Special Report: Venezuela's Unsustainable Economic Paradigm                
                                                                              
    August 4, 2010 | 1208 GMT                                                 
    Special Report: Venezuela's Unsustainable Economic Paradigm               
    PEDRO REY/AFP/Getty Images                                                
    Large reproductions of the Venezuelan bolivar on display in Caracas       
    Summary                                                                   
                                                                              
    Despite being a major energy exporter, Venezuela is currently mired in    
    economic recession and suffering from record-high levels of inflation, a  
    dismal condition known as "stagflation." As the country's economy         
    deteriorates on a number of fronts, the government continues to struggle  
    with an electricity crisis and worsening food shortages that are          
    threatening to undermine support for the ruling party in the lead-up to   
    September legislative elections. The Venezuelan government has tried to   
    impose a range of currency controls, from currency devaluations to        
    parallel market crackdowns, in an effort to resuscitate the economy. But  
    the country's distortionary and unsustainable currency regime not only    
    is forcing more of the economy underground (leading to higher inflation   
    and shortages of basic goods), but it is also catalyzing an elaborate     
    money-laundering scheme that now appears to be spiraling out of control,  
    thereby weakening the regime's grip on power.                             
                                                                              
    Analysis                                                                  
    PDF Version                                                               
      * Click here to download a PDF of this report                           
                                                                              
    From the energy and food sectors to banks and steel mills, Venezuela has  
    been on an aggressive nationalization drive over the past four years in   
    order to draw more money into state coffers while increasing the number   
    of Venezuelan citizens who are politically (and economically) beholden    
    to the state for their livelihoods. While this policy has brought a       
    number of short-term benefits to the government, it has come at the cost  
    of gross inefficiency, mismanagement and corruption, leading to an        
    overall decline in Venezuelan productivity. In an attempt to redress the  
    extreme macroeconomic imbalances, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez was    
    forced to make a substantial adjustment to the country's fixed peg to     
    the U.S. dollar. On June 8, the Venezuelan government devalued the        
    bolivar against the dollar by 17 percent and 50 percent, simultaneously   
    creating a dual exchange-rate regime.                                     
                                                                              
     The Currency Regime                                                      
                                                                              
    An exchange rate of 2.15 bolivars per dollar was established for          
    "essential goods," such as food and medicine, while all other items used  
    a weaker rate of 4.3 bolivars per dollar. The parallel market that used   
    to exist in tandem (and where, unregulated, the dollar recently cost      
    upward of 8 bolivars) is now strictly regulated by the Venezuelan         
    government in a trading band of 4.2 to 5.4 bolivars per dollar, making    
    the parallel market the third official exchange rate. For all intents     
    and purposes, that parallel market was the closest thing to a genuine     
    exchange rate that the country had because the other two rates were       
    subsidized and access to them was restricted by the government.           
                                                                              
    Clearly there are problems with the current arrangement. Although dual    
    or multi-tiered exchange rate regimes do provide the government with the  
    ability to impose tighter capital controls, address economic imbalances   
    and make imported goods more affordable, they are inefficient and         
    difficult to manage. In most economic systems, the cost of capital is     
    the single most important factor for determining growth and development,  
    and when the cost of capital has three different values, entire sectors   
    shift (and even disappear). For example, the ability to import food for   
    a third of the real market price via the "essential" exchange rate        
    largely destroys incentives to produce food locally. Unsurprisingly,      
    countries with such regimes most often experience lower growth and much   
    higher inflation than countries with a single, unified exchange rate. To  
    mute the very high reported inflation (about 32 percent annually,         
    according to Venezuela's central bank), the government has militantly     
    enforced price repression, which is beginning to cause shortages of even  
    the most basic goods (since it makes more financial sense for businesses  
    to stop producing altogether than be able to sell only at artificially    
    low prices).                                                              
                                                                              
    Special Report: Venezuela's Unsustainable Economic Paradigm               
    (click here to enlarge image)                                             
                                                                              
    Second, since the parallel rate was upward of 8 bolivars per dollar       
    before the government began regulating the market, even the weakest       
    possible official rate - the 5.4 at the weakest end of the official       
    trading band - would still be overvalued. With dollars becoming harder    
    to obtain in the regulated markets, more of the economy is being driven   
    underground, and it is probably only a matter of time before another      
    black market emerges (assuming that such a market has not already         
    emerged). The existence of another parallel currency market would bring   
    the total number of foreign exchange rates in Venezuela to four - the     
    subsidized rate, the petrodollar rate, the now-regulated parallel rate    
    and a new black-market rate - the consequences of which would be          
    dizzying.                                                                 
                                                                              
    Moreover, because multi-tiered exchange-rate regimes skew the value of    
    money, they also reward particularly creative individuals and companies   
    who can figure out ways to shuffle goods back and forth through the       
    exchange regime (for example, by placing an import order for a good at    
    one rate, importing it at another and selling it at a third). The         
    various and intricate incentives that arise from distortionary currency   
    regimes invariably lead to spiraling corruption and fraud. Venezuela's    
    currency regime is no exception, especially since practically all         
    public-sector entities have the ability to import via the most            
    subsidized rate by virtue of their being public enterprises.              
                                                                              
     The Gaming Process                                                       
                                                                              
    Conspicuously enough, warehouses have recently been discovered in         
    Venezuela containing mountains of rotting food, expired medications and   
    unusable electricity-generating equipment - at a time when Venezuela is   
    ostensibly suffering from severe food and power shortages. However,       
    there's a very logical reason why the warehouses are filled with          
    "essential" goods. The most apparent is that the mismanagement of state   
    entities responsible for the purchasing and distribution of these goods   
    renders them unable to keep up with the logistical demands of their       
    trade. The state-run entity Bolipuertos (of which the Cuban government    
    holds a significant stake) that runs Venezuela's ports, for example, is   
    years behind on its repair schedule. As a result, goods arriving at       
    Venezuelan ports will often sit for weeks and months without the          
    necessary electricity and refrigeration to preserve them. But the less    
    obvious - and more nefarious - reason is that many of the ports are also  
    mafia-run, and Venezuela's state-owned companies and their subsidiaries   
    are exploiting their privileged access to the subsidized exchange rate    
    in order to enrich themselves. Simply put, there may be deliberation      
    behind many of these shortages.                                           
                                                                              
    Before the government began regulating the parallel market, which more    
    accurately reflected the forces of supply and demand (and thus the        
    bolivar's genuine value), private Venezuelan companies would finance      
    anywhere from 30 to 40 percent of their imports through a dollar/bolivar  
    rate of about 8. However, all state-owned enterprises can exchange just   
    2.6 bolivars for one U.S. dollar, provided that the dollar goes toward    
    importing a good on the government-determined list of essential goods.    
    So, the game is this: maximize the bolivar amount exchanged at the        
    subsidized rate, minimize the dollar amount that has to be spent on       
    importing the goods and pocket the difference.                            
                                                                              
    Overstating the price, or intended amount, of goods to be imported - be   
    they actually essential or simply deemed essential for the sake of        
    participating in this racket - would provide the importer with extra      
    U.S. dollars, as would directing the import business to friends in        
    return for cash or favors.                                                
                                                                              
    For the importers to earn the "inefficiency premium" they charge on this  
    process, they would want to be careful not to kill their golden goose by  
    actually meeting the market demand for goods. So long as there exists a   
    "shortage" of that particular good, the importers can make a strong       
    argument for why they need to import even more of the goods - hence the   
    "inexplicable" warehouses of essential goods containing unusable          
    power-generating equipment and rotting food.                              
                                                                              
     The Food Example                                                         
                                                                              
    While any item on the government's essential goods list is a potential    
    candidate for the scam, food is perhaps the best "vehicle" simply         
    because it is perishable, people have to eat and there will always be     
    demand. The drawback to food as the vehicle, from the government's point  
    of view, is that bare shelves in food markets can quickly present an      
    insurmountable challenge for even the most resilient of regimes.          
    Venezuela imports about 70 percent of its food, most of which now comes   
    from the United States, Brazil and Argentina (Caracas has sustained a de  
    facto trade embargo on Colombian food imports over the past year). Since  
    2003, the government has placed heavy price controls on foodstuffs and    
    has steadily harassed private food companies with charges of speculation  
    and fraud to justify the state's unwavering nationalization drive.        
                                                                              
    In Venezuela, the state-owned energy firm Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA)  
    - the country's main revenue stream - is also responsible for much of     
    the country's food distribution network, a primarily cash-based business  
    that makes tracking transactions all the more difficult. PDVSA            
    subsidiaries work to restrict food supply in the country, thereby         
    increasing demand and increasing their own profit when they turn around   
    and sell food on the black market. Those that have squirreled away vast   
    amounts of food can, for a hefty profit, supply the overwhelming demand   
    for food on the black market. The fact that PDVSA is responsible for      
    much of the country's food distribution makes it much easier for those    
    subsidiaries to corner the food market - they can both create the         
    shortage (by hoarding food) and be there to satisfy the pent-up demand    
    (with the food they've hoarded).                                          
                                                                              
    The two main PDVSA subsidiaries that operate in this particular           
    money-laundering scheme are PDVAL and Bariven. PDVAL was created in       
    January 2008 with a stated goal to correct the speculation of food        
    prices through its own distribution network. Bariven, the acquisition     
    arm of PDVSA, is tasked with obtaining materials for oil exploration and  
    production, but it is also involved in managing inventories for PDVSA, a  
    responsibility that extends into the food sector. From its headquarters   
    in Houston, Bariven will place an order for food imports from American    
    exporters in Texas and Louisiana. PDVSA Bank, a murky new entity whose    
    creation was announced in the summer of 2009, was set up to facilitate    
    banking agreements between PDVSA and Russian state energy giant Gazprom,  
    and is believed to provide loans for such food-import transactions.       
    (Bariven is also known to secure loans from major U.S. banks and is one   
    of a select few state entities that has preferential access with the      
    Commission of Foreign Exchange Administration in Venezuela to trade       
    bolivars for dollars to facilitate these exchanges.) Bariven will then    
    sell the food to PDVAL at a hefty discount, yet will report an even       
    transaction on the books. The food will then sit on the docks until it    
    is close to its expiration date, thus restricting supply in the           
    state-owned markets and building up demand. When the food is already      
    rotting (or close to it), it is sold on the black market for a profit     
    (it's no good to sell the food to the normal government distribution      
    network, where the price of food is tightly controlled). Since PDVAL is   
    the entity that collects all the revenue from state food distributors,    
    the bolivar-denominated proceeds from its food sales can then be          
    discreetly recycled back into PDVSA Bank, where the bolivars can be used  
    again to place ever-increasing orders that will require more dollars and  
    more imports.                                                             
                                                                              
    The orders have increased to the point that the distributors are          
    throwing out thousands of tons of rotting food. This is the root of a     
    scandal that broke in Venezuela in May, when state intelligence agents    
    began investigating the theft of powdered milk and found between 30,000   
    and 75,000 tons (estimates vary between state and opposition claims) of   
    food rotting in warehouses in Puerto Cabello, La Guaira, Maracaibo and    
    other major ports.                                                        
                                                                              
     Has the Scheme Run its Course?                                           
                                                                              
    The above example describes how the money-laundering scheme is playing    
    out in the food distribution sector, but the same concept can be applied  
    to the electricity, medicine and energy sectors. The priority of many     
    officials working in the state-owned electricity company EDELCA is to     
    enrich themselves through a similar money- laundering scheme in which     
    they can exploit and arbitrage the exchange-rate regime, place            
    exorbitant orders for parts, airbrush their books and then pocket the     
    difference. Unlike the engineers working on the power plants, state       
    electricity officials ordering parts lack technical knowledge and have    
    no interest in consulting the engineers when placing the orders. The      
    result is a mishmash of parts and equipment collecting dust in            
    warehouses while power rationing continues across the country. Even more  
    alarming is the fact that Brazilian engineers for Eurobras, a             
    Brazilian-German-Venezuelan consortium, abandoned their work on           
    Venezuela's Guri dam in May after having failed to receive their          
    paychecks from EDELCA. The work they were doing - the implementation of   
    larger and more efficient hydroelectric turbines - was highly             
    specialized and crucial to Venezuela maintaining its electricity output.  
    Yet EDELCA, having already reaped its profits from placing the contract   
    orders for the parts, apparently had little motivation to come up with    
    the funds to allow these workers to finish the job. This is why, despite  
    better-than-expected rainfall over the past couple months, Venezuela      
    remains mired in an electricity crisis since the dilapidated electricity  
    infrastructure is incapable of keeping up with demand.                    
                                                                              
    The money-laundering scheme is prevalent in many strategic sectors, but   
    the food sector brings especially unique benefits to the money            
    launderers while raising the stakes for the Venezuelan leadership. Since  
    food is perishable, it readily lends itself to hoarding and "screw ups"   
    when it goes rotten, requiring more orders, more dollars and more         
    imports. By contrast, while one can still make money by importing a       
    dozen hydroelectric turbines or an expensive new oil rig, there are only  
    so many excuses for having ordered the wrong piece of equipment, and the  
    black market for such equipment is not nearly as good as the black        
    market for food (which, again, is essential for survival).                
                                                                              
    While this elaborate racket has kept a good portion of state officialdom  
    financially content, the warehouses full of rotten food, expired          
    medicine and unused electricity equipment, along with the gross neglect   
    and disrepair of the Guri dam - a vital piece of the country's            
    electricity infrastructure - indicate that the state is losing control    
    over the "essential" sectors. In short, this racket has become so         
    prevalent that it is now threatening the core stability of the state.     
    This is why, despite the obvious political risk of exacerbating food      
    shortages and basic supplies by increasing the costs for importers, the   
    Venezuelan regime has put most of its effort in the past month into       
    cracking down on the "speculators" in the parallel market. The cost of    
    not doing something about these speculators has proved to be higher than  
    the cost of alienating political supporters in the lead-up to             
    legislative elections in September.                                       
                                                                              
    When the food scandal recently broke, the government was quick to name    
    its scapegoat: former PDVAL President Luis Pulido, who, along with        
    several other officials, has been arrested and put on trial for           
    corruption. The Chavez regime is using PDVAL as an example to others who  
    have taken the money-laundering scheme to dangerous levels. Many of       
    those who are most deeply entrenched in the racket and have been less     
    conscious of the long-term risk to the state are the more radical         
    officials within the Chavez government, who are now being sought out by   
    Cuban intelligence services working in league with the upper echelons of  
    the Venezuelan regime. But these efforts could be too little too late.    
    Cracking down on speculators who are operating outside the state's        
    jurisdiction may alleviate part of the problem and provide the state      
    with a cover to expand its control over key sectors, but what of the      
    vast numbers of speculators working within the state, particularly those  
    higher up the chain who could pose a real threat to the regime's hold on  
    power?                                                                    
                                                                              
    Indeed, the government's most recent attempts to rein in this food        
    scandal are already showing signs of floundering. A June 26 ban on        
    unregulated food sales passed in the wake of news about the scandal was   
    revoked shortly thereafter by the president himself, who called on        
    authorities to target the "food mafias" behind the gaming scheme as       
    opposed to the sellers on the streets. The problem with such a directive  
    is that those involved in the food mafias are likely to involve members   
    high up in the regime, which makes the likelihood of enforcement          
    questionable. The government is also introducing new legislation that     
    aims to sideline speculators from the gaming process by changing the      
    currency-for-food transactions altogether. The draft legislation,         
    entitled the Organic Law for the Promotion and Development of the         
    Community Economic System, calls for food in local communes to be         
    "bought" and "sold" primarily through bartering. For exchanges of         
    non-equal value, the legislation calls on communes to create their own    
    currencies (independent of the bolivar) to buy and sell food on the       
    local level. The local communes' strategy is encompassed in a package of  
    legislation dubbed "People Power," which aims to undermine state and      
    city governments while augmenting the power of community councils (220    
    local communes have been listed by the government thus far.) The          
    majority of members of these communes would come from the ruling United   
    Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV,) thereby providing the regime with    
    direct access to small, local governing bodies that will stay loyal to    
    PSUV interests.                                                           
                                                                              
    Though the idea of sidelining money launderers from the cash-based food   
    industry makes strategic sense from the point of view of a government     
    trying to reverse the crippling side-effects of this gaming scheme, a     
    number of pitfalls can already be seen in this legislation. Introducing   
    dozens of alternative currencies for a specific sector will further       
    complicate the already-complicated two-tiered currency exchange regime    
    that differentiates between essential and non-essential foods, while      
    undermining an already-weak bolivar by cutting the local currency out of  
    the food trade. A proliferation of local currencies also means            
    additional layers of bureaucracy will be necessary to manage and          
    implement the new law, and more bureaucracy in Venezuela means more       
    potential for corruption. The local food currency would also eventually   
    have to be transacted into bolivars, and deep-seated corruption in the    
    higher levels of the institutions responsible for such large-scale        
    transactions could end up greatly undermining the primary objective of    
    the plan to root out speculation. In short, the government is still       
    treating the symptoms, and not the cause, of this money laundering        
    scheme and the proposals made thus far to rein in speculators look to     
    have a number of shortcomings.                                            
                                                                              
     The Legal Battle                                                         
                                                                              
    A crackdown within the regime's inner circle to rein in this racket       
    could turn politically explosive, especially when senior members of the   
    Chavez government already appear to have piles of evidence stacked        
    against them in U.S. courts. In mid-May, Chavez publicly warned in a      
    speech broadcast on state television station Venezolana de Television     
    that a U.S. district judge in Miami may soon be ordering the arrest of    
    Chavez, Vice President Elias Jaua, Minister of Planning and Finance       
    Jorge Giordani and other members of the president's inner circle,         
    "instead of the real culprits." Chavez's unusual warning is yet another   
    manifestation of how the state's money-laundering scheme has grown too    
    large and too loud for the regime to manage. Venezuelan businessman and   
    banker Ricardo Fernandez Barrueco, for example, was a close associate of  
    Venezuelan political elites like Public Works and Housing Minister        
    Diosdado Cabello and the president's older brother, Adan Chavez.          
    Barrueco is believed to have used his main business front, the Proarepa   
    Group, to open a number of offshore accounts in the Caribbean, Lebanon,   
    Europe and elsewhere to store funds looted from the state oil firm and    
    its subsidiaries. Barrueco's operation eventually got too exposed and he  
    became a liability for the regime, leading to his reported arrest in      
    November 2009. But silencing Barrueco alone will not assuage the          
    regime's concerns over the evidence sitting in courts in Miami and New    
    York that could implicate senior members of the Chavez regime.            
                                                                              
     Other Beneficiaries                                                      
                                                                              
    Considering the prevalence of the black market, it would appear logical   
    that the country's unsustainable currency arrangement is benefiting a     
    number of other illicit actors. For those state entities experiencing     
    cash-flow problems, local drug dealers (who have expertise swapping       
    currency at multiple rates in multiple places) are believed to be         
    providing local currency to at least some of these firms and thus         
    filtering their drug money through the exchange-rate regime. The drug     
    revenues are also strongly believed to form the basis of Venezuela's      
    financial support for U.S.-designated terrorist groups like the           
    Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the National            
    Liberation Army (ELN) - allegations which are now regaining steam         
    following Colombia's recent decision to release new evidence of           
    Venezuelan support for FARC and ELN rebels.                               
                                                                              
    Driving the U.S. interest in this issue is the connection between         
    Venezuela's money- laundering scheme and Iran. In recent years, in an     
    effort to escape the heavy weight of economic sanctions, Iran has turned  
    to Venezuela to facilitate Iran's access to Western financial markets.    
    Banco Internacional de Desarrollo (EBDI) is a financial institution       
    based in Caracas that operates under the jurisdiction of the Export       
    Development Bank of Iran, designated as a sanctions violator by the       
    European Union as recently as July 27 and by the U.S. Treasury            
    Department in October 2008 for providing financial access to the Islamic  
    Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a major force in the Iranian economy    
    and the prime target of the U.S. sanctions campaign. Though the extent    
    to which Iranian money is funneled through Venezuelan channels is         
    unclear, evidence has been building in the United States that reveals     
    murky transactions among IRGC-owned companies, a Caracas-based EBDI       
    subsidiary, PDVSA entities in Europe and the Caribbean and even banks in  
    Lebanon. And with the U.S. sanctions effort accelerating in Washington,   
    any state willing to enforce the sanctions and crack down on              
    IRGC-affiliated entities can shut down these financial loopholes at any   
    point. STRATFOR cannot quantify the Iranian-Venezuelan money-laundering   
    connection, but any such connection to the IRGC would be a red flag for   
    U.S. Treasury officials looking to fortify sanctions against Iran.        
                                                                              
    Combined with the developing money-laundering and drug-trafficking cases  
    in Miami that threaten to implicate senior members of the Venezuelan      
    regime, the Iranian link is yet another tool that Washington could use    
    to pressure the Venezuelan government should the need arise. Putting the  
    significant enforceability issues of such court cases aside, the          
    district court attorneys preparing these cases against the Chavez         
    government would not be able to launch them without the permission of     
    the Obama administration, given the diplomatic fallout that could         
    follow. So far, there are no indications that the administration is       
    looking to pick this fight with Chavez, but the mere threat that          
    Washington is now able to hang over the Chavez regime's head is enough    
    to make the Venezuelan leader nervous, hence his public warning to his    
    constituents that Washington is preparing a grand conspiracy against      
    him. The nightmare scenario for Caracas is one in which the White House   
    chooses to expose the charges against the regime and use the evidence to  
    justify a temporary cutoff of the roughly 12.5 percent of U.S. crude oil  
    imports (47 percent of Venezuelan crude exports) that the United States   
    receives from Venezuela for just enough time to crack the regime. Though  
    Venezuela is far down on the U.S. foreign-policy priority list, making    
    such a scenario extremely unlikely for the moment, Venezuela's            
    vulnerability to Washington's whims is increasing with each day that      
    this money- laundering scheme shows signs of unraveling.                  
                                                                              
    In addition to the money-laundering scheme explained above, the           
    Venezuelan economy is currently dealing with a rash of other problems:    
                                                                              
      * The devaluation has only been partly effective and the short-term     
        benefits have largely run their course. Devaluing helps recalibrate   
        the bolivar by bringing it closer to its true (lower) value, but it   
        does not address the underlying causes of continued bolivar           
        weakness. Therefore the bolivar remains overvalued and the supply of  
        foreign exchange (U.S. dollars) to the market is still restricted.    
        Cracking down on the parallel market and regulating it will likely    
        lead to the emergence of another black market. Consequently, the      
        fixed exchange rate will again become overvalued, which will          
        eventually require further devaluation (most likely after the         
        September elections), which will generate more inflation.             
      * These problems are forcing the government to take increasing control  
        of and/or regulate large sectors of the economy, while state-owned    
        companies that control the most strategic sectors are having          
        cash-flow problems and are unable to manage these sectors.            
      * The currency regime has given rise to widespread fraud and            
        corruption; the scheme described above is just the most visible one.  
        There is undoubtedly more corruption and fraud permeating the         
        system, exacerbated by the multi-tiered exchange rate and the         
        government's restricting access to it.                                
      * The economy is becoming increasing reliant on PDSVA oil revenues      
        while the non-oil economy buckles. Venezuelan non-commodity exports   
        are too expensive, and the government must increase its imports of    
        goods to make up for domestic production shortfalls. This makes the   
        economy increasingly reliant on the dollar revenues generated by the  
        state-owned oil company, which has experienced declining production   
        for almost a decade.                                                  
                                                                              
    All these problems combined are raising the political stakes for the      
    Venezuelan government. The government's response to the crisis has been   
    to bolster its control of the economy - particularly its control over     
    the most strategic sectors - in an effort to slow the economic decline.   
    The government has shut down or nationalized hundreds of businesses in    
    the wake of January's devaluation for various stated reasons, including   
    price gouging, hoarding and speculation. More recently, the government    
    made sweeping changes to the mandate of the Venezuelan Central Bank to    
    vastly expand its influence over the real economy. And in an effort to    
    both clean the books and root out the speculators, hundreds of brokerage  
    firms have been shut down by the state. Without the technical skills and  
    basic logistical ability to manage enlarged state enterprises, however,   
    the state is exacerbating the very symptoms it is trying to treat.        
    Venezuela still has dollars to draw from the central bank and the state   
    development fund Fonden to delay its day of reckoning, but it can no      
    longer conceal the unsustainability of this economic regime.              
                                                                              
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    <date>2010-08-04 16:03:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 05:00:00</releasedate>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1334309</id>
    <title>Chavez's Health and Implications for Chinese Investment
</title>
    <description>    Stratfor logo                                                             
   Chavez's Health and Implications for Chinese Investment                    
                                                                              
    June 29, 2011 | 1904 GMT                                                  
    Chavez's Health and Implications for Chinese Investment                   
    MINORU IWASAKI-Pool/Getty Images                                          
    Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez (L) and Chinese President Hu Jintao      
    Summary                                                                   
                                                                              
    The absence of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez due to health reasons     
    has caused uncertainty about Venezuela's future, and this is cause for    
    concern in China. China has made significant financial investments in     
    and commitments to Venezuela, from which Venezuela has benefited          
    greatly. China risks losing billions of dollars if Venezuela              
    destabilizes, and in the long term, it fears losing the standing          
    preferential relationship with Caracas if the government changes and      
    Venezuela begins to look elsewhere for technical expertise to accompany   
    investment.                                                               
                                                                              
    Analysis                                                                  
                                                                              
    Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez appeared on Venezuelan television June   
    29 in a recording that was reportedly made the morning of June 28. It is  
    unclear from the video exactly how healthy the South American leader is   
    after he was hospitalized in Cuba on June 10, undergoing abdominal        
    surgery apparently related to prostate cancer. Though he reportedly       
    intends to return to Caracas by July 5 for the country's independence     
    day and bicentennial celebration, it is not yet clear that he will be     
    well enough to do so. With Chavez having been in a Cuban hospital for     
    nearly three weeks, Venezuela has been rife with rumors about his         
    sickness, and a power struggle among his inner circle has been under      
    way.                                                                      
                                                                              
    There are many players with a stake in the Venezuelan regime, but one of  
    the most important in the past several years has been China, which could  
    be affected greatly by a transition in Venezuela's government. China      
    does not stand to lose much in the short term and hopes to continue       
    investing in Venezuela, but a transition away from Chavez and Caracas'    
    need for technical expertise to accompany investment could threaten       
    China's preferential standing with Venezuela.                             
                                                                              
     Chinese Interests in Venezuela                                           
                                                                              
    China has not commented officially on Chavez's illness, but China has     
    become increasingly invested in Venezuela and has built a unique          
    relationship with the Venezuelan government. Although the exact numbers   
    have been difficult to confirm, since 2005, China has made hard asset     
    investments and loans as well as commitments for further loan and         
    investments to Venezuela worth about $49.5 billion. Some of the loans     
    have reportedly been paid back in oil, and about $10 billion worth of     
    loans will reportedly be delivered in yuan, which China can print at      
    will and is only accepted as currency by the Chinese government and       
    firms. The terms on the financing vary, but China has been careful to     
    ensure that it has taken a strong role in how the money is spent, with    
    joint decision-making on the projects and a commitment to hiring Chinese  
    firms written into the agreements. Of the total amount that has been      
    invested and discussed, we estimate conservatively that China could be    
    exposed to losses of around $14 billion if Venezuela reneged on its       
    commitments.                                                              
                                                                              
    [IMG] China's interest in Venezuela is multifaceted. In the first place,  
    Venezuela has one of the largest energy reserves in the world, with       
    proven oil reserves of 211 billion barrels and 179 trillion cubic feet    
    of proven natural gas reserves. Much of this oil is so thick it requires  
    special processing before it can be shipped to a refinery. By             
    establishing a relationship with Venezuela, China not only has a chance   
    to learn some of the processing techniques for heavy, sour crude oil,     
    which is an increasing portion of the global oil mix, but it also is      
    able to actually invest in oil production that supplies its own           
    consumption market. Both of these interests are being addressed in a      
    pending deal to build a refinery with a capacity of 400,000 barrels per   
    day in China*s Guangdong province.                                        
                                                                              
    Chavez's Health and Implications for Chinese Investment                   
    (click here to enlarge image)                                             
                                                                              
    Second, China has a global outward investment strategy that has targeted  
    Venezuela, among others, for its natural resources and opportunities for  
    Chinese business. This strategy allows China to invest its massive cash   
    surpluses in hard assets worldwide and helps it handle domestic money     
    growth. It also expands markets for Chinese exporters and state           
    infrastructure and industry. China has long invested in several           
    extremely risky countries and governments at variance with the United     
    States or the West, or otherwise viewed as at high risk of instability,   
    including North Korea, Myanmar, Iran, Sudan, Angola and Venezuela.        
    Having arrived late in the global race for resources and markets, China   
    has seized opportunities shunned by the West, and with its large cash     
    reserves and willingness to offer financing without political             
    requirements, it has attracted interest from these regimes.               
                                                                              
     Investment in Unstable Countries                                         
                                                                              
    China generally believes it can secure its investments by cultivating     
    relations across these countries' regimes and political elite, though it  
    is well aware that losses could result when it chooses to invest in       
    unstable countries. Outside of Venezuela, China has a number of           
    investments worth hundreds of billions of dollars in unstable countries.  
    STRATFOR sources suggest that China may have more than $30 billion at     
    risk in Libya, where it has recently begun negotiating with the rebels    
    to try to ensure that interests established under the regime of leader    
    Moammar Gadhafi will be protected under any potential Libyan government   
    ruled by the rebels. Chavez's illness and the instability in Libya (as    
    well as the broader Middle East and Africa) reveal a certain degree of    
    strategic weakness inherent in investing in potentially volatile          
    emerging markets, especially where China's main advantage is the          
    regime's estrangement from China's competitors in the West. The           
    potential loss of tens of billions of dollars worth of investment into    
    these economies has prompted a reconsideration of such risks, but         
    STRATFOR sources suggest that Chinese bank regulators' latest attempts    
    to pull back on foreign investments and loans have been rebuffed by the   
    Chinese national banks.                                                   
                                                                              
    For Venezuela, the relationship with China has been important for both    
    financial and political reasons. Since the 2002 coup attempt against      
    Chavez - during which the United States was quick to acknowledge the      
    military leaders that briefly took power - Venezuela has been working to  
    isolate itself from the United States by seeking alternative allies and   
    diversifying its oil export markets. As the most aggressive global        
    lender, particularly in the wake of the financial crisis when lending     
    was nearly nonexistent, and a huge consumer of oil, China has become a    
    natural partner for Venezuela. Presiding over an increasingly unstable    
    economy, Chavez has needed to increase borrowing to cover expenditures    
    and debts on a number of fronts. From a severe national housing shortage  
    to a deteriorating electricity system and an oil sector suffering from    
    severe mismanagement and underinvestment, Chavez has needed the Chinese   
    as a political backer, but most important, as a financial backer. This    
    need has meant that China has enjoyed a great deal of leverage over       
    Venezuela and made it easy for China to get the terms it wanted on the    
    loans and investments it made.                                            
                                                                              
     Implications of Chavez's Illness                                         
                                                                              
    The Venezuelan government is highly personalized, and a great deal in     
    Venezuelan politics relies on the personal preferences of Chavez. There   
    are no other leaders who are positioned to take control in a scenario     
    where Chavez is incapacitated or a change in government becomes a         
    necessity. China worries that if something were to happen to Chavez,      
    their preferential treatment and access to investments and financing      
    could dissipate. This concern to extend the relationship beyond the       
    confines of a personal relationship with Chavez can be seen in the        
    successful push that got the terms of Chinese loans written into          
    Venezuelan law. The Chinese could still make deals with a new Venezuelan  
    government, but it would require forming relationships with a whole new   
    ruling elite.                                                             
                                                                              
    In the short term, the risk posed by Chavez's current illness is that     
    there could be a destabilization of the government if he is not able to   
    return to power in the near future. This could directly threaten China's  
    in-country assets. However, unless the country dissolves into civil war   
    and outright destroys Chinese direct investments, it is unlikely that a   
    successor government would walk away from its debts to the world's        
    biggest lender. And, for China, this is a relatively small amount of      
    money, as its annual external investment totaled around $59 billion in    
    2010 alone.                                                               
                                                                              
    The longer-term reality is that China will lose its preferential access   
    to Venezuelan resources. Even if Chavez*s current illness does not bring  
    about a change in government, a transition is in the cards at some        
    point, and a change in the Venezuelan government may shift the            
    incentives that make the current partnership with China so important. It  
    is Chavez*s policy of isolation from the United States combined with      
    China*s "no strings attached" lending policy that makes China a perfect   
    partner for the moment.                                                   
                                                                              
    However, there are opportunity costs accruing to Venezuela as a result    
    of its commitments to China. Venezuela's oil industry is suffering from   
    a profound lack of technical expertise to accompany investments, and the  
    Chinese simply do not have the technical ability to help revive           
    dwindling production.                                                     
                                                                              
    The pressing need for Venezuela to resuscitate its oil industry with      
    foreign expertise will eventually necessitate a reconsideration of its    
    isolationist policies - and a leadership change will make this more of a  
    political possibility than it currently is under the Chavez               
    administration, as it will require a more conciliatory posture toward     
    the United States. For China, this will mean higher competition for       
    access to Venezuelan energy resources, and although no one can compete    
    with China's quantity of cash, it does not have the expertise Venezuela   
    needs.                                                                    
                                                                              
    Give us your thoughts                          Read comments on           
    on this report                                 other reports              
                                                                              
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    Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                                
    (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
</description>
    <date>2011-06-29 23:10:49</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-04-26 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1334309_chavez-s-health-and-implications-for-chinese-investment-.html</permalink>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1339369</id>
    <title>Anonymous vs. Zetas Amid Mexico's Cartel Violence
</title>
    <description>    Stratfor logo                                                             
   Anonymous vs. Zetas Amid Mexico's Cartel Violence                          
                                                                              
    November 2, 2011                                                          
                                                                              
    Readers Comment on STRATFOR Reports                                       
                                                                              
    By Scott Stewart                                                          
                                                                              
    The online activist collective Anonymous posted a message on the          
    Internet on Oct. 31 saying it would continue its campaign against         
    Mexican criminal cartels and their government supporters despite the      
    risks.                                                                    
                                                                              
    The message urged inexperienced activists, who might not be practicing    
    proper online security measures, to abstain from participating. It also   
    urged individuals associated with Anonymous in Mexico not to conduct      
    physical pamphlet drops, participate in protests, wear or purchase Guy    
    Fawkes masks, or use Guy Fawkes imagery in their Internet or              
    physical-world activities. Guy Fawkes was a British Roman Catholic        
    conspirator involved in a plot to bomb the British Parliament on Nov. 5,  
    1605. The British celebrate the plot's failure as Guy Fawkes Day each     
    Nov. 5. In modern times, the day has come to have special meaning for     
    anarchists. Since 2006, the style of the Guy Fawkes mask used in the      
    movie "V for Vendetta" has become something of an anarchist icon in the   
    United Kingdom and elsewhere.                                             
                                                                              
    Related Video                                                             
      * [IMG] Dispatch: Anonymous' Online Tactics Against Mexican Cartels     
                                                                              
    It was no coincidence, then, that in an Oct. 6 video Anonymous activists  
    set Nov. 5 as the deadline for Los Zetas to release an Anonymous          
    associate allegedly kidnapped in Veracruz. The associate reportedly was   
    abducted during an Anonymous leaflet campaign called "Operation           
    Paperstorm."                                                              
                                                                              
    The Oct. 31 message acknowledged that the operation against Los Zetas,    
    dubbed "Operation Cartel," would be dangerous. It noted that some         
    members of the collective would form a group of trusted associates to     
    participate in a special task force to execute the operation. It asked    
    supporters to pass information pertaining to drug trafficking to the      
    Operation Cartel task force for publication on the Internet via a         
    software tool developed by Anonymous that permits the anonymous passing   
    of information.                                                           
                                                                              
    When discussing Anonymous, it is important to remember that Anonymous is  
    not a hierarchical organization, but rather a collective of activists.    
    Individuals who choose to associate themselves with the collective        
    frequently disagree over issues addressed by the collective and are free  
    to choose which actions to support and/or participate in.                 
                                                                              
    With Nov. 5 approaching, and at least some elements of Anonymous not      
    backing down on their threats to Los Zetas, we thought it would be        
    useful to provide some context to the present conflict between Anonymous  
    and Los Zetas and to address some of its potential implications.          
                                                                              
     Context                                                                  
                                                                              
    The Mexican port city of Veracruz has been the epicenter of this event.   
    Veracruz has been a busy place over the past few months in terms of       
    Mexico's cartel wars. The port serves as a critical transportation hub    
    for Los Zetas narcotics smuggling. Because of this, STRATFOR has          
    identified Veracruz as a bellwether for determining Los Zetas'            
    trajectory in the coming months.                                          
                                                                              
    In a major recent development in Veracruz, the Sinaloa cartel began an    
    offensive into the Zetas stronghold using the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva     
    Generacion (CJNG), which, under the name "Matazetas" (Spanish for "Zeta   
    killers"), conducted high-profile body dumps of more than 50 alleged      
    low-level Zetas operatives on Sept. 20 and Sept. 22. On Oct. 25, Mexican  
    marines arrested Carlos Arturo Pitalua-Carillo, also known as "El Bam     
    Bam," who was the Zetas' plaza boss in Veracruz. The Zetas in Veracruz    
    thus are feeling pressure from both the Mexican government and the CJNG.  
                                                                              
    The Anonymous Internet collective entered this dynamic in August with     
    its activities in Veracruz. It is common knowledge that members of        
    local, state and federal governments in Mexico support various cartel     
    groups. In the state of Veracruz, it is generally believed that some      
    members of the state government support Los Zetas, the dominant cartel    
    there. In response to this corruption, some who have associated           
    themselves with Anonymous launched Operation Paperstorm. These activists  
    distributed leaflets throughout Veracruz denouncing the state government  
    for supporting Los Zetas. They conducted leaflet distributions Aug. 13,   
    Aug. 20 and Aug. 29. They also released videos on the Internet on Aug.    
    26 and Aug. 29 condemning the Veracruz state government.                  
                                                                              
    Activities outside Veracruz also played a part in setting the stage. On   
    Sept. 13, the bodies of two people who had been tortured and killed were  
    hung from a pedestrian overpass in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state. Signs  
    left with the bodies said Los Zetas had killed the pair because they had  
    posted information pertaining to the Zetas on blogs that specialize in    
    reporting on the Mexican cartels. On Sept. 26, the decapitated body of    
    Marisol Macias Castaneda was found in a park in Nuevo Laredo. Macias,     
    who worked for a local newspaper, allegedly posted on cartel blogs using  
    the nickname "Laredo Girl." A message found with her body said the Zetas  
    killed her due to her online activities.                                  
                                                                              
    Following the death of Laredo Girl, Anonymous claimed responsibility for  
    a distributed denial of service attack against the official website of    
    the state of Veracruz. Although her murder occurred outside of the        
    state, Anonymous said its attack on the Veracruz website was in response  
    to Laredo Girl's death. This indicates that activists understand that     
    Los Zetas are active in both areas and suggests that Veracruz             
    state-based activists are driving the Anonymous campaign against Los      
    Zetas.                                                                    
                                                                              
    Significantly, some individuals associated with Anonymous already were    
    unhappy with the state of Veracruz over its decision to prosecute two     
    individuals who had posted kidnapping reports on Twitter on Aug. 25 that  
    proved false. According to the reports, a group of children had been      
    abducted from a Veracruz school. The inaccurate reports allegedly caused  
    some two dozen traffic accidents as terrified parents rushed to the       
    school to check on their children. The so-called Twitter terrorists       
    initially were charged with offenses that could have carried a 30-year    
    sentence. Some associated with Anonymous, which has absolute freedom of   
    speech on the Internet as one of its foundational principles, took        
    umbrage at the prospect of such stiff penalties - especially given the    
    stark contrast with the impunity enjoyed by many cartel figures in        
    Mexico.                                                                   
                                                                              
    STRATFOR began to focus on the story following the Oct. 6 release of the  
    video in which Anonymous activists threatened to release information      
    about individuals cooperating with Los Zetas if the Zetas did not         
    release the Anonymous activist kidnapped during Operation Paperstorm. In  
    light of the approaching Nov. 5 deadline, we published an analysis of     
    the topic on Oct. 28; the topic subsequently received a great deal of     
    media coverage.                                                           
                                                                              
    This publicity has generated a very interesting response from Anonymous   
    that emphasizes that it is a collective, not an organization. Some        
    Anonymous activists began to back off the issue, erasing online user      
    accounts formerly associated with the campaign, suggesting the operation  
    against Los Zetas had been a hoax and claiming that no activist had been  
    kidnapped. Other activists suggested that the campaign was dangerous,     
    ill-advised and should be suspended. Still other activists became more    
    strident and determined in their posts, urging that the campaign          
    continue. As noted, Anonymous' collective nature means activists can      
    select the actions they participate in, including Operation Cartel. It    
    would only take one dedicated individual to continue the operation.       
                                                                              
    The will to continue was manifested Oct. 29 with the hacking of the       
    personal website of Gustavo Rosario Torres, the former attorney general   
    of the Mexican state of Tabasco. The site was defaced with a message      
    from Anonymous Mexico stating that Rosario is a Zeta. Rosario has long    
    been accused in the Mexican and international media of protecting Los     
    Zetas, and videos long have circulated on YouTube making the same         
    charge. The hacking of his website thus did not provide any startling     
    revelation; Anonymous will have to uncover and publish original and       
    timely information if it hopes to do much damage to Los Zetas.            
                                                                              
    The determination by some activists to continue the operation against     
    Los Zetas also was reflected in the tone of the Oct. 31 message. Some     
    activists associated with Anonymous clearly feel compelled to continue    
    with the campaign over what they have characterized as an outpouring of   
    public support in the wake of the media coverage. According to their      
    Oct. 31 video statement:                                                  
                                                                              
      "We received many expressions of support and solidarity as well as the  
      voices of people crying for help. We must remember that we are on the   
      side of the people, and we cannot let down the people, especially in    
      critical moments like the one they currently live in."                  
                                                                              
    We therefore anticipate that some Anonymous activists will continue the   
    campaign. We also believe that Los Zetas will respond.                    
                                                                              
     Blowback                                                                 
                                                                              
    Mexico's various cartels long have used the Internet to trumpet their     
    triumphs on the battlefield and to taunt and even degrade their enemies.  
    The cartels have posted videos of the torture, execution and desecration  
    of the corpses of rivals. They also frequently monitor narcoblogs and     
    sometimes even post on them. As demonstrated by the September blogger     
    killings in Nuevo Laredo, Los Zetas appear to possess at least some       
    rudimentary capability to trace online activity to people in the          
    physical world. They are known to employ their own team of dedicated      
    cyber experts and to have sources within the Mexican government.          
                                                                              
    In addition to technical intelligence, the Zetas can use old-fashioned    
    human intelligence to track down their online enemies. People sometimes   
    discuss their online identities with family and friends, and such         
    information can be overheard and passed to Los Zetas in return for        
    money. This danger was recognized in the Oct. 31 video from Anonymous     
    that urges participants in their campaign not to discuss their            
    activities with anyone.                                                   
                                                                              
    In past Anonymous actions, like the December 2010 attack against PayPal   
    after the WikiLeaks scandal broke, the U.S. and British governments       
    arrested numerous individuals associated with Anonymous who allegedly     
    participated in the attacks. In June 2011, Turkey arrested dozens of      
    activists associated with Anonymous actions conducted against the         
    Turkish government in response to its plan to establish a national        
    Internet-filtering system. This indicates that some activists associated  
    with Anonymous are not nearly as anonymous as they would like to be.      
    Every action on the Internet leaves some sort of trail, making it very    
    difficult to be truly anonymous.                                          
                                                                              
    Like other Mexican cartels, Los Zetas do not take affronts lightly. Even  
    if Anonymous cannot provide information that damages Los Zetas smuggling  
    operations, the very fact that the collective has decided publicly to     
    challenge Los Zetas will result in some sort of response. The big         
    question is whether the Zetas possess the capability to trace the         
    organizers of the Anonymous action?                                       
                                                                              
    One challenge with tracking an entity such as Anonymous is that it is     
    intentionally amorphous. It is also as transnational as the Internet,     
    and it would be unsurprising if many of those chosen to participate in    
    the operation against Los Zetas are located in the United Sates, Europe   
    and other areas that are outside the Zetas' immediate reach.              
                                                                              
    The amorphous nature of Anonymous can also cut the other way, however.    
    If Los Zetas abduct and execute random patrons at an Internet cafe,       
    behead them and place Guy Fawkes masks on their heads, it will be very    
    difficult to prove that they were not associated with Anonymous. Los      
    Zetas also could execute random people and claim they had provided        
    Anonymous with information in order to intimidate people from actually    
    cooperating with Anonymous. As Anonymous noted in its Oct. 31 video,      
    this is dangerous business indeed.                                        
                                                                              
     The Big Picture                                                          
                                                                              
    How the Mexican public reacts to the Anonymous operation must be          
    watched. The criminal cartels and their violence have deeply affected     
    many people in Mexico's middle and upper classes. STRATFOR talks to many  
    people in Mexico who fear that they or a family member will be            
    kidnapped. In many communities, especially places like Ciudad Juarez,     
    Torreon, Monterrey and Veracruz, businessmen find themselves in a         
    terrible bind. They face ever-increasing extortion demands from the       
    cartels while their business revenues dwindle because the violence        
    associated with those same cartels has frightened people into not going   
    out. This is forcing many small businesses to close. It also is creating  
    a great deal of frustration and resentment.                               
                                                                              
    At the same time, Mexico has become one of the most dangerous countries   
    in the world for journalists, and many media organizations practice       
    heavy self-censorship to protect themselves. In the wake of the           
    September blogger killings, some of the narcoblogs, like Blog del Narco,  
    have exhibited strong signs of self-censorship inspired by fear. As a     
    result, many Mexicans believe the mainstream media are not of any real    
    assistance in the face of cartel violence.                                
                                                                              
    Mexican citizens also are frustrated with their government, which, as     
    noted, is well-known for corruption. This sentiment is feeding            
    Anonymous' original campaign in Veracruz. This frustration even has led   
    some people to begin discussing the creation of vigilante groups to       
    fight the cartels - though this has been attempted before in Mexico. As   
    we saw in the case of La Familia Michoacana, which began as such a        
    vigilante group, vigilantism frequently does not end well.                
                                                                              
    This is where Anonymous may fit in. With Mexican citizens unable to rely  
    on their government, the media or even armed vigilante groups for         
    assistance, they may embrace Anonymous, coming to view its form of        
    cybervigilantism as an outlet for their frustration. If Anonymous is      
    perceived as a safe way to pass information pertaining to cartel          
    activities, we may see people from all over the country begin to share    
    intelligence. Such human intelligence could very well prove to be far     
    more damaging to the cartels than any information Anonymous activists     
    can dredge up electronically. As this operation is becoming more widely   
    publicized, the pool of people outside Mexico who might wish to           
    participate will likely grow. The number of people inside Mexico who      
    wish to provide information might grow as well.                           
                                                                              
    Anonymous has taken on many powerful entities in the past, such as major  
    transnational corporations and governments. But the repercussions from    
    participating in such operations were never as grave for online           
    activists as they are in this case. Being identified and detained by      
    Scotland Yard or the FBI is a far different situation than being          
    identified and detained by Los Zetas.                                     
                                                                              
    Give us your thoughts                          Read comments on           
    on this report                                 other reports              
                                                                              
    For Publication                                Reader Comments            
                                                                              
    Not For Publication                                                       
                                                                              
    Reprinting or republication of this report on websites is authorized by   
    prominently displaying the following sentence at the beginning or end of  
    the report, including the hyperlink to STRATFOR:                          
                                                                              
    "This report is republished with permission of STRATFOR"                  
    Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                                
    (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
</description>
    <date>2011-11-03 15:27:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1339369_anonymous-vs-zetas-amid-mexico-s-cartel-violence-.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>mailto:stratforaustin@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1340867</id>
    <title>Fwd: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
</title>
    <description>   Ryan Sims
   Global Intelligence
   STRATFOR
   T: 512-744-4087
   F: 512-744-0570
   ryan.sims@stratfor.com
   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
     Date: June 16, 2011 1:04:08 PM CDT
     To: STRATFOR &lt;service@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: RE: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
     Kudos*a great explanation for those who don't understand or appreciate
     the efforts that go into a real intel op*as opposed to the Hollywood BS
     everyone seems to expect.
      
     I remind people all the time that we got the courier's name back in '03
     -- and thank goodness didn't take the typical "cuff 'em and drag him in"
     approach many had advocated. We stayed patient and threw real analytical
     support into this one. Took some time -- but the patient oriental
     approach usually pays bigger dividends.  M
      
     From: STRATFOR [mailto:mail@response.stratfor.com] 
     Sent: Thursday, June 16, 2011 11:45 AM
     To: Michael Maness
     Subject: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
      

View on Mobile Phone | Read the online version.                                  

      

     STRATFOR Weekly Intelligence Update                                      
     Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier: Special Edition of Above the        
     Tearline                                                                 
     The weekly Above the Tearline video series is part of our members-only   
     content. We hope you enjoy this exclusive chance to access it free.      
                                                                              
     [IMG]                                                                    
     Watch this exclusive edition of Above the Tearline                       
                                                                              
             Above the Tearline: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier          
                                                                              
                                                                              
                                                                              
     Vice President of Intelligence Fred Burton examines the sophisticated    
     surveillance operation that led to the raid on Osama bin Laden*s safe    
     house in Pakistan. Click here to view.                                   
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</description>
    <date>2011-06-16 20:08:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1340867_fwd-surveillance-of-bin-laden-s-courier-.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>responses@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:responses@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1344804</id>
    <title>London surveillance &amp; Russian Spies
</title>
    <description>   not for pub
    
   There is on-going aQ surveillance of several high-profile targets in
   London to include MI5, Scotland Yard and SIS Hqs; impacting on London
   links to the Russian spy round up on U.S. soil.   MI5 is strapped to the
   breaking point in looking at hadji running loose planning attacks and have
   reduced surveillance coverage's of Russian IO's (both known and suspected)
   inside the UK. 
    
   "The candle is burning at both ends" was the qoute. 
    
    
</description>
    <date>2010-07-07 04:14:57</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-16 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1344804_london-surveillance-and-russian-spies-.html</permalink>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1346433</id>
    <title>Dispatch: Mainland China's "Occupy Wall Street" Reaction
</title>
    <description>    Stratfor logo                                                             
   Dispatch: Mainland China's "Occupy Wall Street" Reaction                   
                                                                              
    October 19, 2011 | 2044 GMT                                               
    Click on image below to watch video:                                      
    [IMG]                                                                     
                                                                              
    China Director Jennifer Richmond explains why the "Occupy Wall Street"    
    movement failed to gain traction in mainland China.                       
                                                                              
       Editor*s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition      
       technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete        
       accuracy.                                                              
                                                                              
    Related Links                                                             
      * China Political Memo: Wenzhou Backs Away from the `Wenzhou Model'     
      * The Effects of Chinese Economic Development on Illicit Trade          
      * China Political Memo: Governmental Reforms for Economic Problems?     
                                                                              
    The "Occupy Wall Street" movement has gone global and there have even     
    been attempts to capitalize on this movement in various Chinese cities.   
    The "Occupy China" movement, however, has failed to gain traction on the  
    mainland.                                                                 
                                                                              
    We really didn't expect to see this movement transfer to mainland China;  
    however, given the Jasmine protests earlier this year, there were many    
    who were waiting to see whether or not this movement could be             
    rejuvenated by the global call to action. The global Occupy movement      
    lacks a nucleus or leadership. Despite a common theme of corporate        
    greed, there is very little direction on how to proceed and, under these  
    circumstances, we have seen no contagion effect in mainland China.        
                                                                              
    However, the Tiananmen protests in 1989 also started with very little     
    leadership or direction, and many Chinese activists that I've spoken      
    with feel that all that is needed is a spark to ignite a fire. After      
    all, there are plenty of protests localized daily in China, revolving     
    around issues such as land grabs, the environment and even corruption.    
                                                                              
    The Jasmine Movement provided a spark for organized action in China;      
    however, it quickly fizzled under an aggressive government response. The  
    Occupy China movement hasn't even gotten that far. While it is not        
    unforeseeable for a small movement to gain momentum in China, the         
    problem with both the Jasmine and the Occupy movements are that neither   
    were home-grown.                                                          
                                                                              
    Although the Jasmine movement was spearheaded by Chinese, it was done so  
    from overseas. The Occupy movement had supporters and organizers within   
    China, but the concept was foreign-generated.                             
                                                                              
    Moreover, the Chinese government and media has actually acknowledged the  
    Occupy movement in the U.S. and in the EU, taking the opportunity to      
    point out the failures of Wall Street and capitalism, while at the same   
    time, censoring any indication of an Occupy China movement. Also, many    
    Chinese do not have access to the social Internet sites that have helped  
    to ignite these movements in Western countries, namely Facebook. And      
    those that do, find this information quickly scrubbed off of similar      
    Chinese sites.                                                            
                                                                              
    Ultimately, the Chinese, even those that want change, are wary of         
    foreign influences. Anything emanating from outside of the state will be  
    used by the state to highlight foreign interference. That said the        
    domestic wealth gap and its ensuing tensions could generate a homegrown   
    movement that would threaten Beijing much more so than any Occupy Wall    
    Street movement could muster.                                             
                                                                              
    Click for more videos                                                     
                                                                              
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    on this report                                 other reports              
                                                                              
    For Publication                                Reader Comments            
                                                                              
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    (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
</description>
    <date>2011-10-19 23:03:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1346433_dispatch-mainland-china-s-occupy-wall-street-reaction-.html</permalink>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1347112</id>
    <title>Re: London Terror Surveillance (not for pub)
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2010-09-24 02:21:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-16 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1347112_re-london-terror-surveillance-not-for-pub-.html</permalink>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1347203</id>
    <title>Stratfor's World Snapshot
</title>
    <description>    Stratfor logo                       December 7, 2010                      
   Stratfor's World Snapshot                                                  
                                                                              
    The Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks' Survival                                
    FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP/Getty Images                                         
    WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange at the United Nations office in Geneva   
    on Nov. 5                                                                 
                                                                              
   The Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks' Survival                                 
                                                                              
    December 7, 2010 1646 GMT                                                 
    The arrest of the WikiLeaks founder raises questions about the            
    organization's ability to survive, but the use of the Internet to leak    
    documents will persist. [more]                                            
    Russia's Intensifying Diplomatic Courtship of Europe                      
                                                                              
   Russia's Intensifying Diplomatic Courtship of Europe                       
                                                                              
    December 7, 2010 1314 GMT                                                 
    Russia is launching a diplomatic offensive meant to strengthen Moscow's   
    ties with Poland, Italy and the European Union. [more]                    
    Mexico Security Memo: Dec. 6, 2010                                        
                                                                              
   Mexico Security Memo: Dec. 6, 2010                                         
                                                                              
    December 6, 2010 2252 GMT                                                 
    The arrest in Mexico of two Guatemalans on charges of weapon smuggling    
    highlights the often-ignored arms trafficking into Mexico from elsewhere  
    in Latin America. (With STRATFOR interactive map) [more]                  
    A Re-emerging Sweden Sets Its Sights on Eastern Europe                    
                                                                              
   A Re-emerging Sweden Sets Its Sights on Eastern Europe                     
                                                                              
    December 6, 2010 2215 GMT                                                 
    For the first time in more than a year, Sweden is attempting to pursue    
    its foreign policy objectives. A number of developments indicate it may   
    be trying to assert itself farther into Eastern Europe. [more]            
                                                                              
    More Analysis &gt;&gt;                                                          
                                                                              
   Situation Reports                                                          
                                                                              
   Iran: Rift Within Ahmadinejad's Government - Former Diplomat               
                                                                              
    December 7, 2010 1653 GMT                                                 
    During a meeting at France's Center of Political and Foreign Affairs,     
    Mohammed Reza Heydari, a former Iranian diplomat who defected to Norway   
    in February 2010, commented on a rift within the... [more]                
                                                                              
   Iran: North Korean Technicians Seen At Tehran Airport - Former Diplomat    
                                                                              
    December 7, 2010 1653 GMT                                                 
                                                                              
   U.S.: Increased Access To Australian Military Bases Sought                 
                                                                              
    December 7, 2010 1651 GMT                                                 
                                                                              
   Indonesia: Maritime Security Budget To Increase                            
                                                                              
    December 7, 2010 1631 GMT                                                 
    More Situation Reports &gt;&gt;                                                 
                                                                              
   Weekly Intelligence Reports                                                
                                                                              
    Geopolitical Journey, Part 8: Returning Home                              
                                                                              
   Geopolitical Journey, Part 8: Returning Home                               
                                                                              
    December 7, 2010 0956 GMT                                                 
    Simply put, there are fewer risks in Texas than in Central Europe. Part   
    eight in a series. [more]                                                 
    Geopolitical Journey, Part 7: Poland                                      
                                                                              
   Geopolitical Journey, Part 7: Poland                                       
                                                                              
    December 3, 2010 1227 GMT                                                 
    Attacks on Nuclear Scientists in Tehran                                   
                                                                              
   Attacks on Nuclear Scientists in Tehran                                    
                                                                              
    December 1, 2010 2354 GMT                                                 
    Geopolitical Journey, Part 6: Ukraine                                     
                                                                              
   Geopolitical Journey, Part 6: Ukraine                                      
                                                                              
    November 30, 2010 0955 GMT                                                
    Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                                
    (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 18:12:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1347203_stratfor-s-world-snapshot-.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1349704</id>
    <title>The Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks' Survival
</title>
    <description>    Stratfor logo                                                             
   The Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks' Survival                                 
                                                                              
    December 7, 2010 | 1646 GMT                                               
    The Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks' Survival                                
    FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP/Getty Images                                         
    WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange at the United Nations office in Geneva   
    on Nov. 5                                                                 
    Summary                                                                   
                                                                              
    WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange surrendered to authorities in Britain    
    on Dec. 7, following an Interpol Red Notice based on a Swedish arrest     
    warrant. WikiLeaks is a relatively young organization with one leader     
    and has not institutionalized a set of practices and protocols that       
    guarantee its survival even if the personnel changes. Assange's arrest    
    will test the organization's ability to maintain itself, but the use of   
    the Internet to leak documents will continue.                             
                                                                              
    Analysis                                                                  
    Related Special Topic Page                                                
      * The WikiLeaks Releases                                                
                                                                              
    London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and       
    public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 9:30 a.m. local time on Dec. 7 after   
    Assange turned himself in. He is due to appear in a court in Westminster  
    soon over sexual assault charges filed against him in Sweden, and faces   
    possible extradition.                                                     
                                                                              
    There is considerable interest in what his arrest will mean for his       
    organization. WikiLeaks organized a new method for an old practice -      
    leaking confidential government information in an attempt to influence    
    politics. And while Assange's arrest could disrupt the long-term          
    viability of WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release of the current       
    batch of diplomatic cables in the short term, nor will it stop similar    
    future leaks via the Internet.                                            
                                                                              
    Leadership is extremely important in nongovernmental organizations that   
    have not institutionalized to the point where their dominant figures are  
    replaceable and members can adapt to changing circumstance. From          
    terrorist groups to charities, new organizations often rise and fall      
    with their founders. Assange created WikiLeaks with himself as the only   
    public face - he leads supporters, drives donations, gives interviews     
    and faces the resulting criticism. There have been reports of internal    
    dissent and tensions, and in one interview with CNN, a discussion of the  
    organization's internal politics seemed to touch a nerve with Assange.    
    If Assange were to face charges in Sweden for sexual assault or new       
    charges in the United Kingdom or the United States and was found guilty,  
    WikiLeaks would still need someone to oversee it. Assange may have        
    someone ready to fill the leadership void, but there has been no          
    evidence of this.                                                         
                                                                              
    In addition to having its leadership threatened, WikiLeaks has suffered   
    logistically. As national governments put pressure on its                 
    infrastructure, its web server has been shut down, and most important, a  
    major source of funding, PayPal, has closed WikiLeaks' account (Visa and  
    Mastercard have also banned payments from their cards to WikiLeaks). It   
    is also possible the events of the past few months will deter other       
    potential leakers from approaching WikiLeaks as opposed to other          
    organizations (especially if they dislike or disagree with Assange).      
    Moreover, this new set of documents has not been greeted with the         
    reaction Assange expected - the U.S. public is not angry at the State     
    Department, but many are angry at Assange and his organization.           
                                                                              
    Immediately following Assange's arrest, a WikiLeaks spokesman said the    
    arrest would not stop the group's operations. Indeed, whether Assange     
    remains behind bars or not, it most likely will not stop the continued    
    release of the 250,000 U.S. State Department cables, only a fraction of   
    which have been released thus far. It also will not shut down WikiLeaks,  
    which still maintains its website - albeit currently on a Swiss server,   
    after its initial U.S.-hosted servers were deactivated - and the ability  
    to collect information from leakers. So in the short term, WikiLeaks      
    will persist. The question remains if Assange created a truly             
    sustainable institution.                                                  
                                                                              
    If Assange is extradited to Sweden and tried on one count of unlawful     
    coercion, two counts of sexual molestation and one count of rape, it is   
    not clear to what degree the image of WikiLeaks will be damaged; thus     
    far Assange has cultivated the site as an extension of his persona, and   
    even without the assault charges he is not held in high repute. The       
    extradition process could take months or even years, and he may try to    
    use prison time to develop his image as a martyr for free speech, but     
    this can backfire. If WikiLeaks, however, is not tied to his image, it    
    will be much more sustainable as an organization.                         
                                                                              
    Western governments also fear whatever is contained in his "insurance"    
    file, a 1.4-gigabyte computer file that has already been distributed to   
    many thousands of people over the Internet. Assange has threatened to     
    release the encryption password if something happens to him. As STRATFOR  
    has stated before, WikiLeaks likely led with its most insightful          
    documents, and thus those saved in the insurance file are probably less   
    enlightening than they are damaging. The file may contain no new          
    information at all, but simply the names and information on sources,      
    diplomats, military and intelligence officers not already disclosed.      
    Such a release could put these individuals' jobs or even lives at risk.   
    However, such a release exposing these individuals in a vindictive        
    manner could further tarnish Assange and WikiLeaks in the eyes of the     
    international public, to include potential financial and information      
    contributors. Beyond that, governments will almost certainly take         
    stronger measures against WikiLeaks if it does release identities of      
    classified sources or officers.                                           
                                                                              
    WikiLeaks is now facing a conundrum that all new organizations face at    
    some point - the ability to maintain and transition leadership through    
    adverse circumstances. Assange may be released quickly, but if he is      
    not, WikiLeaks' survival will be in question. However, even if WikiLeaks  
    disappears, the organizational concept will continue, and leaks along     
    with it. WikiLeaks has only demonstrated the ability new technology has   
    created to transfer large quantities of documents, and there is no        
    reason other organizations will not make use of the same technology.      
                                                                              
    Give us your thoughts                          Read comments on           
    on this report                                 other reports              
                                                                              
    For Publication                                Reader Comments            
                                                                              
    Not For Publication                                                       
    Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                                
    (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 18:38:06</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1349704_the-assange-arrest-and-wikileaks-survival-.html</permalink>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1350587</id>
    <title>Security Weekly : Counterterrorism: Shifting from 'Who' to 'How'
</title>
    <description>    Stratfor logo                                                             
   Counterterrorism: Shifting from 'Who' to 'How'                             
                                                                              
    November 4, 2009                                                          
                                                                              
    Global Security and Intelligence Report                                   
                                                                              
    By Scott Stewart and Fred Burton                                          
                                                                              
    In the 11th edition of the online magazine Sada al-Malahim (The Echo of   
    Battle), which was released to jihadist Web sites last week, al Qaeda in  
    the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) leader Nasir al-Wahayshi wrote an article    
    that called for jihadists to conduct simple attacks against a variety of  
    targets. The targets included "any tyrant, intelligence den, prince" or   
    "minister" (referring to the governments in the Muslim world like Egypt,  
    Saudi Arabia and Yemen), and "any crusaders whenever you find one of      
    them, like at the airports of the crusader Western countries that         
    participate in the wars against Islam, or their living compounds, trains  
    etc.," (an obvious reference to the United States and Europe and          
    Westerners living in Muslim countries).                                   
                                                                              
    Related Special Topic Pages                                               
      * Surveillance and Countersurveillance                                  
      * Terrorist Attack Cycle                                                
                                                                              
    Al-Wahayshi, an ethnic Yemeni who spent time in Afghanistan serving as a  
    lieutenant under Osama bin Laden, noted these simple attacks could be     
    conducted with readily available weapons such as knives, clubs or small   
    improvised explosive devices (IEDs). According to al-Wahayshi, jihadists  
    "don't need to conduct a big effort or spend a lot of money to            
    manufacture 10 grams of explosive material" and that they should not      
    "waste a long time finding the materials, because you can find all these  
    in your mother's kitchen, or readily at hand or in any city you are in."  
                                                                              
    That al-Wahayshi gave these instructions in an Internet magazine          
    distributed via jihadist chat rooms, not in some secret meeting with his  
    operational staff, demonstrates that they are clearly intended to reach   
    grassroots jihadists -- and are not intended as some sort of internal     
    guidance for AQAP members. In fact, al-Wahayshi was encouraging           
    grassroots jihadists to "do what Abu al-Khair did" referring to AQAP      
    member Abdullah Hassan Taleh al-Asiri, the Saudi suicide bomber who       
    attempted to kill Saudi Deputy Interior Minister Prince Mohammed bin      
    Nayef with a small IED on Aug. 28.                                        
                                                                              
    The most concerning aspect of al-Wahayshi's statement is that it is       
    largely true. Improvised explosive mixtures are in fact relatively easy   
    to make from readily available chemicals -- if a person has the proper    
    training -- and attacks using small IEDs or other readily attainable      
    weapons such as knives or clubs (or firearms in the United States) are    
    indeed quite simple to conduct.                                           
                                                                              
    As STRATFOR has noted for several years now, with al Qaeda's structure    
    under continual attack and no regional al Qaeda franchise groups in the   
    Western Hemisphere, the most pressing jihadist threat to the U.S.         
    homeland at present stems from grassroots jihadists, not the al Qaeda     
    core. This trend has been borne out by the large number of plots and      
    arrests over the past several years, to include several so far in 2009.   
    The grassroots have likewise proven to pose a critical threat to Europe   
    (although it is important to note that the threat posed by grassroots     
    operatives is more widespread, but normally involves smaller, less        
    strategic attacks than those conducted by the al Qaeda core).             
                                                                              
    From a counterterrorism perspective, the problem posed by grassroots      
    operatives is that unless they somehow self-identify by contacting a      
    government informant or another person who reports them to authorities,   
    attend a militant training camp, or conduct electronic correspondence     
    with a person or organization under government scrutiny, they are very    
    difficult to detect.                                                      
                                                                              
    The threat posed by grassroots operatives, and the difficulty             
    identifying them, highlight the need for counterterrorism programs to     
    adopt a proactive, protective intelligence approach to the problem -- an  
    approach that focuses on "the how" of militant attacks instead of just    
    "the who."                                                                
                                                                              
     The How                                                                  
                                                                              
    In the traditional, reactive approach to counterterrorism, where          
    authorities respond to a crime scene after a terrorist attack to find     
    and arrest the militants responsible for the attack, it is customary to   
    focus on the who, or on the individual or group behind the attack.        
    Indeed, in this approach, the only time much emphasis is placed on the    
    how is either in an effort to identify a suspect when an unknown actor    
    carried out the attack, or to prove that a particular suspect was         
    responsible for the attack during a trial. Beyond these limited           
    purposes, not much attention is paid to the how.                          
                                                                              
    In large part, this focus on the who is a legacy of the fact that for     
    many years, the primary philosophy of the U.S. government was to treat    
    counterterrorism as a law-enforcement program, with a focus on            
    prosecution rather than on disrupting plots.                              
                                                                              
    Certainly, catching and prosecuting those who commit terrorist attacks    
    is necessary, but from our perspective, preventing attacks is more        
    important, and prevention requires a proactive approach. To pursue such   
    a proactive approach to counterterrorism, the how becomes a critical      
    question. By studying and understanding how attacks are conducted --      
    i.e., the exact steps and actions required for a successful attack --     
    authorities can establish systems to proactively identify early           
    indicators that planning for an attack is under way. People involved in   
    planning the attack can then be focused on, identified, and action can    
    be taken prevent them from conducting the attack or attacks they are      
    plotting. This means that focusing on the how can lead to previously      
    unidentified suspects, e.g., those who do not self-identify.              
                                                                              
    "How was the attack conducted?" is the primary question addressed by      
    protective intelligence, which is, at its core, a process for             
    proactively identifying and assessing potential threats. Focusing on the  
    how, then, requires protective intelligence practitioners to carefully    
    study the tactics, tradecraft and behavior associated with militant       
    actors involved in terrorist attacks. This allows them to search for and  
    identify those behaviors before an attack takes place. Many of these      
    behaviors are not by themselves criminal in nature; visiting a public     
    building and observing security measures or standing on the street to     
    watch the arrival of a VIP at their office are not illegal, but they can  
    be indicators that an attack is being plotted. Such legal activities      
    ultimately could be overt actions in furtherance of an illegal            
    conspiracy to conduct the attack, but even where conspiracy cannot be     
    proved, steps can still be taken to identify possible assailants and      
    prevent a potential attack -- or at the very least, to mitigate the risk  
    posed by the people involved.                                             
                                                                              
    Protective intelligence is based on the fact that successful attacks      
    don't just happen out of the blue. Rather, terrorist attacks follow a     
    discernable attack cycle. There are critical points during that cycle     
    where a plot is most likely to be detected by an outside observer. Some   
    of the points during the attack cycle when potential attackers are most   
    vulnerable to detection are while surveillance is being conducted and     
    weapons are being acquired. However, there are other, less obvious        
    points where people on the lookout can spot preparations for an attack.   
                                                                              
    It is true that sometimes individuals do conduct ill-conceived, poorly    
    executed attacks that involve shortcuts in the planning process. But      
    this type of spur-of-the-moment attack is usually associated with         
    mentally disturbed individuals and it is extremely rare for a militant    
    actor to conduct a spontaneous terrorist attack without first following   
    the steps of the attack cycle.                                            
                                                                              
    To really understand the how, protective intelligence practitioners       
    cannot simply acknowledge that something like surveillance occurs.        
    Rather, they must turn a powerful lens on steps like preoperational       
    surveillance to gain an in-depth understanding of them. Dissecting an     
    activity like preoperational surveillance requires not only examining     
    subjects such as the demeanor demonstrated by those conducting            
    surveillance prior to an attack and the specific methods and cover for    
    action and status used. It also requires identifying particular times     
    where surveillance is most likely and certain optimal vantage points      
    (called perches in surveillance jargon) from where a surveillant is most  
    likely to operate when seeking to surveil a specific facility or event.   
    This type of complex understanding of surveillance can then be used to    
    help focus human or technological countersurveillance efforts where they  
    can be most effective.                                                    
                                                                              
    Unfortunately, many counterterrorism investigators are so focused on the  
    who that they do not focus on collecting this type of granular how        
    information. When we have spoken with law enforcement officers            
    responsible for investigating recent grassroots plots, they gave us       
    blank stares in response to questions about how the suspects had          
    conducted surveillance on the intended targets. They simply had not paid  
    attention to this type of detail -- but this oversight is not really the  
    investigators' fault. No one had ever explained to them why paying        
    attention to, and recording, this type of detail was important.           
    Moreover, it takes specific training and a practiced eye to observe and   
    record these details without glossing over them. For example, it is       
    quite useful if a protective intelligence officer has first conducted a   
    lot of surveillance, because conducting surveillance allows one to        
    understand what a surveillant must do and where he must be in order to    
    effectively observe surveillance of a specific person or place.           
                                                                              
    Similarly, to truly understand the tradecraft required to build an IED    
    and the specific steps a militant needs to complete to do so, it helps    
    to go to an IED school where the investigator learns the tradecraft       
    firsthand. Militant actors can and do change over time. New groups,       
    causes and ideologies emerge, and specific militants can be killed,       
    captured or retire. But the tactical steps a militant must complete to    
    conduct a successful attack are constant. It doesn't matter if the        
    person planning an attack is a radical environmentalist, a grassroots     
    jihadist or a member of the al Qaeda core, for while these diverse        
    actors will exhibit different levels of professionalism in regard to      
    terrorist tradecraft, they still must follow essentially the same steps,  
    accomplish the same tasks and operate in the same areas. Knowing this     
    allows protective intelligence to guard against different levels of       
    threats.                                                                  
                                                                              
    Of course, tactics can be changed and perfected and new tactics can be    
    developed (often in response to changes in security and law enforcement   
    operations). Additionally, new technologies can emerge (like cell phones  
    and Google Earth) -- which can alter the way some of these activities     
    are conducted, or reduce the time it takes to complete them. Studying     
    the tradecraft and behaviors needed to execute evolving tactics,          
    however, allows protective intelligence practitioners to respond to such  
    changes and even alter how they operate in order to more effectively      
    search for potential hostile activity.                                    
                                                                              
    Technology does not only aid those seeking to conduct attacks. There are  
    a variety of new tools, such as Trapwire, a software system designed to   
    work with camera systems to help detect patterns of preoperational        
    surveillance, that can be focused on critical areas to help cut through   
    the fog of noise and activity and draw attention to potential threats.    
    These technological tools can help turn the tables on unknown plotters    
    because they are designed to focus on the how. They will likely never     
    replace human observation and experience, but they can serve as valuable  
    aids to human perception.                                                 
                                                                              
    Of course, protective intelligence does not have to be the sole           
    responsibility of federal authorities specifically charged with           
    counterterrorism. Corporate security managers and private security        
    contractors should also apply these principles to protecting the people   
    and facilities in their charge, as should local and state police          
    agencies. In a world full of soft targets -- and limited resources to     
    protect those targets from attack -- the more eyes looking for such       
    activity the better. Even the general public has an important role to     
    play in practicing situational awareness and spotting potential           
    terrorist activity.                                                       
                                                                              
     Keeping it Simple?                                                       
                                                                              
    Al-Wahayshi is right that it is not difficult to construct improvised     
    explosives from a wide range of household chemicals like peroxide and     
    acetone or chlorine and brake fluid. He is also correct that some of      
    those explosive mixtures can be concealed in objects ranging from         
    electronic items to picture frames, or can be employed in forms ranging   
    from hand grenades to suicide vests. Likewise, low-level attacks can      
    also be conducted using knives, clubs and guns.                           
                                                                              
    Furthermore, when grassroots jihadists plan and carry out attacks acting  
    as lone wolves or in small compartmentalized cells without inadvertently  
    betraying their mission by conspiring with people known to the            
    authorities, they are not able to be detected by the who-focused          
    systems, and it becomes far more difficult to discover and thwart these   
    plots. This focus on the how absolutely does not mean that who-centered   
    programs must be abandoned. Surveillance on known militants, their        
    associates and communications should continue, efforts to identify        
    people attending militant training camps or fighting in places like       
    Afghanistan or Somalia must be increased, and people who conduct          
    terrorist attacks should be identified and prosecuted.                    
                                                                              
    However -- and this is an important however -- if an unknown militant is  
    going to conduct even a simple attack against some of the targets         
    al-Wahayshi suggests, such as an airport, train, or specific leader or    
    media personality, complexity creeps into the picture, and the planning   
    cycle must be followed if an attack is going to be successful. The        
    prospective attacker must observe and quantify the target, construct a    
    plan for the attack and then execute that plan. The demands of this       
    process will force even an attacker previously unknown to the             
    authorities into a position where he is vulnerable to discovery. If the   
    attacker does this while there are people watching for such activity, he  
    will likely be seen. But if he does this while there are no watchers,     
    there is little chance that he will become a who until after the attack   
    has been completed.                                                       
                                                                              
    Tell STRATFOR What You Think                                              
                                                                              
    For Publication in Letters to STRATFOR                                    
                                                                              
    Not For Publication                                                       
                                                                              
    This report may be forwarded or republished on your website with          
    attribution to www.stratfor.com                                           
    Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                                
    (c) Copyright 2009 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
</description>
    <date>2009-11-04 21:50:38</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1350587_security-weekly-counterterrorism-shifting-from-who-to-how-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>allstratfor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>noreply@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1357175</id>
    <title>[Fwd: [Fwd: don't share this]]
</title>
    <description>   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: [Fwd: don't share this]                          
      Date: Wed, 06 Apr 2011 09:32:29 -0500                  
      From: Robert Reinfrank &lt;robert.reinfrank@stratfor.com&gt; 
        To: Kevin Stech &lt;kevin.stech@stratfor.com&gt;           

   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: don't share this                                 
      Date: Tue, 05 Apr 2011 16:02:11 -0500                  
      From: Robert Reinfrank &lt;robert.reinfrank@stratfor.com&gt; 
        To: Marko Papic &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;           

 I want to keep the edge
</description>
    <date>2011-04-06 20:53:35</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-07 05:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1357175_-fwd-fwd-don-t-share-this-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>matt.gertken@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>robert.reinfrank@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/118/118095_Q Series - Nuclear Power.pdf</path><size>1046525</size><md5></md5><sha1>699d657deb9d2bafefd05fc62c71a2f8a66f1bed</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1357992</id>
    <title>Stratfor's World Snapshot
</title>
    <description>    Stratfor logo                       December 7, 2010                      
   Stratfor's World Snapshot                                                  
                                                                              
    The Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks' Survival                                
    FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP/Getty Images                                         
    WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange at the United Nations office in Geneva   
    on Nov. 5                                                                 
                                                                              
   The Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks' Survival                                 
                                                                              
    December 7, 2010 1646 GMT                                                 
    The arrest of the WikiLeaks founder raises questions about the            
    organization's ability to survive, but the use of the Internet to leak    
    documents will persist. [more]                                            
    Russia's Intensifying Diplomatic Courtship of Europe                      
                                                                              
   Russia's Intensifying Diplomatic Courtship of Europe                       
                                                                              
    December 7, 2010 1314 GMT                                                 
    Russia is launching a diplomatic offensive meant to strengthen Moscow's   
    ties with Poland, Italy and the European Union. [more]                    
    Mexico Security Memo: Dec. 6, 2010                                        
                                                                              
   Mexico Security Memo: Dec. 6, 2010                                         
                                                                              
    December 6, 2010 2252 GMT                                                 
    The arrest in Mexico of two Guatemalans on charges of weapon smuggling    
    highlights the often-ignored arms trafficking into Mexico from elsewhere  
    in Latin America. (With STRATFOR interactive map) [more]                  
    A Re-emerging Sweden Sets Its Sights on Eastern Europe                    
                                                                              
   A Re-emerging Sweden Sets Its Sights on Eastern Europe                     
                                                                              
    December 6, 2010 2215 GMT                                                 
    For the first time in more than a year, Sweden is attempting to pursue    
    its foreign policy objectives. A number of developments indicate it may   
    be trying to assert itself farther into Eastern Europe. [more]            
                                                                              
    More Analysis &gt;&gt;                                                          
                                                                              
   Situation Reports                                                          
                                                                              
   Iran: Rift Within Ahmadinejad's Government - Former Diplomat               
                                                                              
    December 7, 2010 1653 GMT                                                 
    During a meeting at France's Center of Political and Foreign Affairs,     
    Mohammed Reza Heydari, a former Iranian diplomat who defected to Norway   
    in February 2010, commented on a rift within the... [more]                
                                                                              
   Iran: North Korean Technicians Seen At Tehran Airport - Former Diplomat    
                                                                              
    December 7, 2010 1653 GMT                                                 
                                                                              
   U.S.: Increased Access To Australian Military Bases Sought                 
                                                                              
    December 7, 2010 1651 GMT                                                 
                                                                              
   Indonesia: Maritime Security Budget To Increase                            
                                                                              
    December 7, 2010 1631 GMT                                                 
    More Situation Reports &gt;&gt;                                                 
                                                                              
   Weekly Intelligence Reports                                                
                                                                              
    Geopolitical Journey, Part 8: Returning Home                              
                                                                              
   Geopolitical Journey, Part 8: Returning Home                               
                                                                              
    December 7, 2010 0956 GMT                                                 
    Simply put, there are fewer risks in Texas than in Central Europe. Part   
    eight in a series. [more]                                                 
    Geopolitical Journey, Part 7: Poland                                      
                                                                              
   Geopolitical Journey, Part 7: Poland                                       
                                                                              
    December 3, 2010 1227 GMT                                                 
    Attacks on Nuclear Scientists in Tehran                                   
                                                                              
   Attacks on Nuclear Scientists in Tehran                                    
                                                                              
    December 1, 2010 2354 GMT                                                 
    Geopolitical Journey, Part 6: Ukraine                                     
                                                                              
   Geopolitical Journey, Part 6: Ukraine                                      
                                                                              
    November 30, 2010 0955 GMT                                                
    Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                                
    (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 18:12:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1357992_stratfor-s-world-snapshot-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>allstratfor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>noreply@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1358712</id>
    <title>BRAZIL/ECON - bank faces allegations over Brazil
</title>
    <description>   http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/183060f8-940d-11de-9c57-00144feabdc0.html

    US bank faces allegations over Brazil

   By Jonathan Wheatley in Sao Paulo

   Published: August 28 2009 21:06 | Last updated: August 29 2009 00:03

   The US Department of Justice has alleged that an employee of Brown
   Brothers Harriman, a US private bank, helped Brazilian clients avoid
   measures to detect money laundering and conceal the proceeds of crimes
   including fraud and tax evasion.

   The DoJ made the allegation in an application to freeze about $450m in an
   account held at BBH in New York in the name of Tiger Eye Investments
   Limited, a company registered in the Cayman Islands.

   The account was frozen on a request from the Brazilian government last
   December.

   The DoJ made its latest accusation in preparation for an Appeal Court
   hearing in October that will decide whether to maintain the freeze.
   Kenneth Counts, an investigator hired by the DoJ, said in an affidavit
   there was probable cause to believe Tiger Eye was owned by Daniel and
   Veronica Dantas, Brazilian brother and sister and business partners. Mr
   Dantas is founder and head of Opportunity, a Rio de Janeiro investment
   firm that formerly managed Citigroup's private equity interests in Brazil.
   The DoJ alleges the Tiger Eye account received redemptions from the
   Opportunity Fund, an off-shore fund managed by Opportunity and restricted
   under Brazilian law to foreign investors.

   BBH said: "We have acted appropriately in regard to this client. There are
   no charges against BBH or any of its employees and no indication that BBH
   or its employees are under investigation by the DoJ.

   "We are co-operating fully with the DoJ in its efforts to assist the
   Brazilian authorities."

   Opportunity said the restrain order was based on "erroneous premises". It
   added: "Opportunity has never been involved in money laundering.
   Therefore, BBH has never helped Opportunity to launder money."

   Mr Counts's allegations against BBH concern instructions from Ms Dantas to
   transfer about $90m from accounts held at UBS Wealth Management in London
   and Banque Safra in Luxembourg into the Tiger Eye account in New York last
   year.

   Drawing on telephone conversations recorded by Brazilian police, his
   affidavit states: "The BBH employee appears to tell Ms Dantas he can
   assist her to avoid providing further information to the anti-money
   laundering compliance components of two financial institutions."

   BBH said notwithstanding the transcript that it had provided anti-money
   laundering information.

   Last year, a Brazilian police investigation alleged the Opportunity Fund
   had been used illegally by Brazilian individuals and companies, avoiding
   tax on profits from those investments (which are tax free for foreign
   nationals) and concealing their ownership of large sums of money.

   Mr Dantas was temporarily detained twice last year for alleged crimes
   including fraud and money laundering. On both occasions he was released by
   Brazil's Supreme Court. He was found guilty in December of attempting to
   bribe a police investigator and sentenced to 10 years in prison.

   The sentence is suspended pending an appeal.

   Opportunity said: "Daniel Dantas has never ordered, agreed with, suggested
   or participated in any offer of bribery to public agents."

   A further $168m was frozen in Brazil and about $46m in Britain, the DoJ
   said. To support its case at the appeals court the DoJ has presented
   documents prepared by Brazilian police which contain a list of more than
   70 individuals and companies which Brazilian authorities say invested in
   the Opportunity Fund. Among the list are dozens of individuals including
   one minor and several Brazilian companies and investment funds, including
   Opportunity companies.

   Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009. You may share using our
   article tools. Please don't cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by
   email or post to the web.
</description>
    <date>2009-08-29 18:04:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-02 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1358712_brazil-econ-bank-faces-allegations-over-brazil-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>kevin.stech@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>econ@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:econ@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1361232</id>
    <title>London Terror Surveillance (not for pub) 
</title>
    <description>   aQ terrorist surveillance has been positively identified outside of MI6
   Hqs in London.  MI5 is monitoring the terrorist suspect observed
   conducting the pre-operational surveillance.   
    
    
</description>
    <date>2010-09-24 00:01:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-16 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1361232_london-terror-surveillance-not-for-pub-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1362905</id>
    <title>Re: London Terror Surveillance (not for pub)
</title>
    <description>   Good question. I don't know. Will ask.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2010 19:21:20 -0500
   To: Secure List&lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: London Terror Surveillance (not for pub)
   granted we have a strong theory about the GCHQ/MI6 officer who was killed,
   but could this person or persons conducting surveillance have been
   involved?

   (though it really does look like the GCHQ guy locked himself in a bag and
   couldn't get out....)
   Fred Burton wrote:

     aQ terrorist surveillance has been positively identified outside of MI6
     Hqs in London.  MI5 is monitoring the terrorist suspect observed
     conducting the pre-operational surveillance.   
      
      

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-09-24 02:22:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-16 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1362905_re-london-terror-surveillance-not-for-pub-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1364544</id>
    <title>[alpha] Body bound for Dover, DE on CIA plane
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-05-02 05:51:12</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 17:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1364544_-alpha-body-bound-for-dover-de-on-cia-plane-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1367250</id>
    <title>RE: LA Terror Plot (not for pub - pls do not forward)  
</title>
    <description>   The surveillance detection was identified by the TrapWire surveillance
   system.    I'm getting the details on the recons and m.o.   The matter is
   very dicey.  Pls don't pass this around.  Thanks  

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, September 22, 2010 8:33 PM
   To: secure@stratfor.com
   Subject: LA Terror Plot (not for pub - pls do not forward)
   According to a very good source responsible for domestic surveillance
   operations, an extremely serious al Qaeda terror plot has been uncovered
   targeting a financial institution, an entertainment center and a
   government office bldg in Los Angeles.  The same terrorist surveillance
   team conducted pre-operational surveillance of all three sites.   The
   group is currently under watch....
    
   Note -- The NSC has refused disclosure due to the election.  Gotta love
   it.  I'll know more tomorrow. 

   No virus found in this incoming message.
   Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
   Version: 9.0.851 / Virus Database: 271.1.1/3152 - Release Date: 09/22/10
   01:34:00
</description>
    <date>2010-09-23 23:54:36</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1367250_re-la-terror-plot-not-for-pub-pls-do-not-forward-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1370900</id>
    <title>[Analytical &amp; Intelligence Comments] RE: France: The Potential for a
	Europe-Wide Anti-Fracking Movement
</title>
    <description>rollehogan@gmail.com sent a message using the contact form at  
https://www.stratfor.com/contact.

Stratfor,

Very insightful article although please keep in mind that the French do  
indeed have significant corporate expertise in High Pressure Fraccing. The  
French Oilfield Services company, Schlumberger, has the second largest High  
Pressure Frac fleet in the world, behind Halliburton. Schlumberger has  
approximately 1.8mln frac horsepower, 1.5mln of which is in N. America. This  
sevice line represents approximately $5.6bln in revenues for the French  
corporate giant in 2010. This doesn't weaken your argument, but it is  
reflective of the high politics at play in Paris.

Rolle Hogan




Source:  
http://www.stratfor.com/node/194202/analysis/20110511-france-potential-europe-wide-anti-fracking-movement
</description>
    <date>2011-05-13 13:29:17</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1370900_-analytical-and-intelligence-comments-re-france-the.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>responses@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:responses@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>rollehogan@gmail.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1378798</id>
    <title>Re: [Eurasia] Athens' Indignants threaten political system
</title>
    <description>   You know this happened in Mexico after the last Presidential elections and
   Calderon just let them sit there for a year and a half.

   On 6/3/11 8:26 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

     Depends on their numbers. If they get a massive group of people (very
     unlikely of course) just sitting around somewhere then it'll matter to
     some extent and at some point. But other than that you're right as long
     as they don't start rioting a bit they'll just be ignored under some
     kind of a number threshold.

     Look at Spain though, let's assume they get a few (in the high) hundreds
     for the nights and then thousands during the day. They'll force some
     kind of a reaction (especially because the Greek police cannot empty
     that square for political reasons). No idea what kind of number
     potential we're talking about with these guys though.

     On 06/03/2011 02:14 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

       Ok, so... If they refuse to vote for anyone and dont have the balls to
       riot, how do they matter? 
       It is a legit question. I am asking. 

       On Jun 3, 2011, at 8:08 AM, Benjamin Preisler
       &lt;ben.preisler@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

 To Ethnos - Greece. For more than a week now the "indignant
 citizens" movement has been demonstrating in Athens against the
 government's drastic austerity measures. The protests are a
 symptom of a major crisis of the political system in which the
 great majority of citizens have lost faith in the parties,
 writes the left-liberal daily To Ethnos: "Already the parties
 are discussing whether this phenomenon represents a threat to
 the political system, while others believe it is just an
 insignificant expression of anger - without political weight or
 serious repercussions. ... The people who have gathered at
 Athens' main square reject the entire structure of the system:
 the parties, trade unions, media and institutions. They are
 making the point that they won't vote for the [socialist ruling
 party] Pasok, or the [liberal-conservative opposition party] Nea
 Dimokratia, nor for the communist KKE party or the radical left
 coalition Syriza. This is why the parties are not taking a
 positive view of the demonstrators." (02/06/2011) +++
 http://www.ethnos.gr/article.asp?catid=22792&amp;subid=2&amp;pubid=63111062


 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19

 --
 Marko Papic
 Senior Analyst
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 + 1-512-905-3091 (C)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
 www.stratfor.com
 @marko_papic
</description>
    <date>2011-06-03 15:50:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2011-03-05 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1378798_re-eurasia-athens-indignants-threaten-political-system-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ben.preisler@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1379157</id>
    <title>Re: [Eurasia] Athens' Indignants threaten political system
</title>
    <description>   Depends on their numbers. If they get a massive group of people (very
   unlikely of course) just sitting around somewhere then it'll matter to
   some extent and at some point. But other than that you're right as long as
   they don't start rioting a bit they'll just be ignored under some kind of
   a number threshold.

   Look at Spain though, let's assume they get a few (in the high) hundreds
   for the nights and then thousands during the day. They'll force some kind
   of a reaction (especially because the Greek police cannot empty that
   square for political reasons). No idea what kind of number potential we're
   talking about with these guys though.

   On 06/03/2011 02:14 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

     Ok, so... If they refuse to vote for anyone and dont have the balls to
     riot, how do they matter? 
     It is a legit question. I am asking. 

     On Jun 3, 2011, at 8:08 AM, Benjamin Preisler
     &lt;ben.preisler@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

 To Ethnos - Greece. For more than a week now the "indignant
 citizens" movement has been demonstrating in Athens against the
 government's drastic austerity measures. The protests are a
 symptom of a major crisis of the political system in which the
 great majority of citizens have lost faith in the parties,
 writes the left-liberal daily To Ethnos: "Already the parties
 are discussing whether this phenomenon represents a threat to
 the political system, while others believe it is just an
 insignificant expression of anger - without political weight or
 serious repercussions. ... The people who have gathered at
 Athens' main square reject the entire structure of the system:
 the parties, trade unions, media and institutions. They are
 making the point that they won't vote for the [socialist ruling
 party] Pasok, or the [liberal-conservative opposition party] Nea
 Dimokratia, nor for the communist KKE party or the radical left
 coalition Syriza. This is why the parties are not taking a
 positive view of the demonstrators." (02/06/2011) +++
 http://www.ethnos.gr/article.asp?catid=22792&amp;subid=2&amp;pubid=63111062


 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19
</description>
    <date>2011-06-03 15:26:31</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2011-03-05 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1379157_re-eurasia-athens-indignants-threaten-political-system-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ben.preisler@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1382436</id>
    <title>Chavez Shores up His Military Support
</title>
    <description>    Stratfor logo                                                             
   Chavez Shores up His Military Support                                      
                                                                              
    November 12, 2010 | 1739 GMT                                              
    Chavez Shores up His Military Support                                     
    LOUAI BESHARA/AFP/Getty Images                                            
    Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez in October                               
                                                                              
    Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez promoted Maj. Gen. Henry Rangel Silva,   
    currently Venezuela's chief of strategic operations for the armed         
    forces, to general in chief during a state television address late Nov.   
    11. Announcing the promotion, Chavez said "the imperialist oligarchs      
    will never have an armed forces subordinated in the shadows to their      
    gross interests."                                                         
                                                                              
    The promotion comes after Rangel Silva publicly reaffirmed the loyalty    
    of the armed forces to the president Nov. 8, saying the military is       
    married to Chavez's political project. Rangel Silva added that the        
    military will not tolerate an opposition government win in 2012           
    elections, as it would try to "sell" the country to foreign interests.    
                                                                              
    A Chavez loyalist, Rangel Silva is thought to be one of the chief drug    
    traffickers in the Venezuelan armed forces. In 2008, the U.S. Treasury    
    Department listed Rangel Silva and Director of Military Intelligence      
    Hugo Carvajal as drug kingpins involved in financing the Revolutionary    
    Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) rebel group.                              
                                                                              
    Not by coincidence, Rangel Silva's defensive statements and his sudden    
    promotion come as Venezuelan drug kingpin Walid Makled, in Colombian      
    custody since his late August arrest, faces possible extradition to the   
    United States. Makled is thought to possess valuable recordings of        
    transactions incriminating high-ranking members of the Venezuelan         
    government in money laundering, drug trafficking and perhaps terrorism.   
    Rangel Silva, Carvajal, and Interior and Justice Minister Tareck El       
    Aissami could be on Makled's list. Given the tumult that would ensue      
    should high-ranking members of the Venezuelan government face such        
    serious criminal charges in a U.S. court, Caracas has pressed the         
    Colombian government to extradite Makled to Venezuela on the grounds      
    that he is a Venezuelan citizen.                                          
                                                                              
    Colombia is benefiting greatly from holding the threat of Makled's        
    extradition over Chavez. It is sharing intelligence from Makled with the  
    United States and would rather amplify Caracas' discomfort after years    
    of struggling to get the Venezuelan government to stop supporting FARC    
    rebels who have enjoyed refuge in Venezuela.                              
                                                                              
    As the pressure has increased, so has Caracas' desperation. By promoting  
    Rangel Silva, Chavez is attempting to reassure the armed forces that      
    regardless of Makled's fate, the president will not sacrifice his         
    loyalists to bargain his way out of a crisis. Such assurances may not     
    hold as much weight as before. High-ranking members of the government     
    may prove unwilling to gamble on Makled's fate and could make             
    contingency plans to protect their assets and themselves.                 
                                                                              
    The president's biggest fear is that such planning could destabilize his  
    government, perhaps culminating in a coup attempt down the road. This     
    explains almost daily announcements by Chavez's allies in the government  
    regarding mass expansions of the National Bolivarian Militia (NBM). The   
    NBM expansion has long upset many in the armed forces, who remain wary    
    that the NBM will encroach on their authority. The NBM is not a           
    particularly well-trained or capable fighting force, but recent efforts   
    to recruit trained soldiers to the militia indicate an effort by the      
    president to stymie possible coup plans by other segments of the armed    
    forces. The Rangel Silva promotion is thus a stark reminder that the      
    armed forces should be watched closely for any breakdowns in cohesion.    
    The potential for fissures in the military rises with the Venezuelan      
    government's vulnerabilities.                                             
                                                                              
    Give us your thoughts                          Read comments on           
    on this report                                 other reports              
                                                                              
    For Publication                                Reader Comments            
                                                                              
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    (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
</description>
    <date>2010-11-12 19:19:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-09 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1382436_chavez-shores-up-his-military-support-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>allstratfor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>noreply@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1393779</id>
    <title>Re: ANALYSIS FOR COMMENT - Brazil's recession
</title>
    <description>   "Brazil's financial system has proven one of the world's more robust in
   stressed times. Tier 1 capital ratios are high (12%-13% for major banks),
   as are reserve requirements (30% pre-crisis). Domestic sources provide 96%
   of bank funding."  --second bullet on pg 4 of Goldman's "Brazil vs.
   Russia: Resilience vs. Valuation" April 7th, 2009.  attached.

 Robert Reinfrank
 STRATFOR Intern
 Austin, Texas
 P: + 1-310-614-1156
 robert.reinfrank@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

   Karen Hooper wrote:

     Do you have a source for that 95 percent number? That would surprise me
     if it were true since foreign companies control 30 percent of Brazil's
     bank deposits.

     Robert Reinfrank wrote:

       Nice work and an interesting read.  You may want to touch on the fact
       that Brazilian banks are also forbidden from lending in foreign
       currency, a practice which has trashed other emerging markets, and
       that domestic banks also account for ~95% of lending and therefore
       don't have to deal with capital flight that have completely enervated
       economies like Russia's.

 --
 Robert Reinfrank
 STRATFOR Intern
 Austin, Texas
 P: + 1-310-614-1156
 robert.reinfrank@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

       Karen Hooper wrote:

         Please let me know if you see places that are particularly wonky. I
         will make sure this gets a heavy vetting for understandability by
         the average reader before this goes to edit.

         As the financial crisis takes its toll, STRATFOR continues to watch
         the impact of the global economic downturn on Latin America, a
         region that has a history of relatively regular economic   crises.
         Perhaps uniquely for Latin America, the origins of this crisis have
         nothing to do with the Latin American policies this time around, and
         everything to do with instability in developed nations. This is cold
         comfort, however, as many developing states -- in Latin America and
         abroad -- have been shaken to the core by shrinking capital markets
         and plunging commodity prices. In this addition to STRATFOR's
         Recession Revisited series, we consider the impact of the crisis on
         Brazil, a developing country that is perhaps uniquely well suited to
         weathering the storm.
         The Geopolitics of Economics in Latin America
         &gt;From the very beginning, Latin American states have been hampered
         in development by their own geography. With enormous geographical
         barriers to economic expansion, integration and trade, Latin
         American states started off at a disadvantage from the moment of
         independence. Without major river systems [LINK to weekly] to
         facilitate exploration, settlement, development and trade, Latin
         American governments had to attempt to forge transportation links
         throughout their countries using expensive foreign capital to build
         railways and roads. The reliance on international capital put Latin
         American countries at an immediate disadvantage, and the region's
         early history is characterized by numerous debt defaults to former
         colonizing nations. Without the ability to build reliable
         transportation networks, it has been extremely difficult for Latin
         American countries to accumulate domestic pools of capital, thus
         reinforcing the cycle of underdevelopment.

         The one river system that could potentially foster the kind of
         development that has characterized the United States is the Rio
         Plata. But the Rio Plata system is split among four countries --
         Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay -- and no one country has
         succeeded at utilizing the river's transportation potential as a
         stepping-stone towards development. Indeed, the perennial (if rather
         anti-climactic) struggle between Brazil and Argentina to exert
         maximum influence in the politics of the states that buffer the two
         South American giants (Uruguay, Paraguay and Bolivia) exemplifies
         the slow-rolling competition for control over the river drainage
         basin.

         At the moment, Brazil appears to be winning the struggle [LINK] for
         influence in South America, but it has been a long road for the
         Amazonian nation.

         Since independence in 1822, Brazil has bounced among many different
         economic management models. Much of Brazil's history was
         characterized by cycles of boom and bust related to oscillation in
         the price of key Brazilian commodity exports -- primarily coffee and
         sugar in the country's early history. In the 20th century, Brazil
         has gone through periodic spasms of industrial development and
         growth, punctuated by severe economic downturns, which culminated in
         an economic crisis in the late 1980's and early 1990's that was
         characterized by inflation of more than 2,400 percent per year.

         Plano Real, which finally solved Brazil's hyperinflation problem,
         was spearheaded by then-finance minister Fernando Henrique Cardoso
         in 1994 and established the currency Brazil uses today, the real.
         Aimed at cutting to the heart of the inflation problem -- massive
         and persistent government deficit spending -- Cardoso and his team
         drew up a balanced budget, and started a sustained public relations
         campaign to convince weary Brazilians that this anti-inflation plan
         would work (with an understanding that public acceptance of a new
         currency is key to maintaining its value). The real succeeded in
         maintaining a stable value, and Cardoso rode this success to the
         top, becoming president in 1995. Once in office, Cardoso pushed
         through a series of reforms. Many of these reforms necessitated a
         turnaround in Brazilian economic policy. Brazil abandoned the ideas
         of export-led growth and import substitution industrialization
         [LINK] and turned its sights towards cultivating liberal
         institutions and encouraging foreign direct investment. Cardoso's
         successor, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, continued
         the country's policies of fiscal prudence.
         Brazilian Banks
         Included in the reforms pursued in the late 1990's was the complete
         reorganization of the Brazilian banking industry. In the days of
         hyperinflation, banks were able to turn a quick buck by exploiting
         fluctuating currency value, and the whole enterprise was at once
         very profitable, highly corrupt and run by a unique set of rules.
         Once the currency was stabilized, many Brazilian banks that had poor
         accounting standards (something they could sustain with high profits
         from the hyperinflation) were unable to carry on. Several bank
         failures (in some cases of major banks) required a government
         bailout, led by the Brazilian Central Bank. Once involved in bailing
         out the banking sector, the Cardoso government was able to lift
         restrictions preventing foreign investment in banking and establish
         very conservative regulations on the sector.

         These regulations include some of the highest (if not the highest)
         reserve to deposit ratios in the world, at about 50 percent (prior
         to the crisis)***. Inspired in part because of fears that too much
         liquidity could endanger the stability of the real, this essentially
         means that for every real put into a Brazilian bank, the bank can
         lend half, but must keep the other half in a vault. For the sake of
         comparison, the United States maintains a reserve ratio of about 6.5
         percent (depending on the size of the bank and type of deposit).
         China's reserve ratio is about 15 percent.

         This does two notable things for Brazil: It slows growth because the
         banks have to maintain a tight grip on their capital, and makes the
         banks incredibly capital rich compared to other banks.

         Brazil has not been able to achieve the kind of growth it has
         yearned for, despite a relatively stable decade. Where China and
         India have seen growth rates soar, Brazil has had to be satisfied
         with a growth rate that has hovered around 5 percent in recent
         years. Though there are many reasons for this, part of Brazil's
         plodding growth rates can be linked to the reserve ratio. By
         reducing the amount of loans that can be made from bank deposits,
         Brazil permanently limits the amount of credit available to
         Brazilians. This stifles growth by restricting economic activity --
         capital is simply not as available for start-up companies to get
         loans, or existing companies to pursue innovation -- more, at least,
         than would a lower reserve ratio. This is exacerbated by a culture
         of extreme caution among Brazilian banks, which generally refrain
         from uncertain investments in order to maintain a high ratio of
         capital to risk.

         Ultimately, however, the reserve ratio also serves as a very
         effective insurance policy. Not only does it mean that banks have a
         harder time failing (if some loans go bad they still have plenty of
         cash on hand, whereas if the banks only maintained a 3 percent
         reserve ratio, it wouldn't take many bad loans to make the banks
         technically bankrupt). This also means that in a time of scarce
         capital resources the world `round, Brazil has the resources it
         needs to create liquidity. Though the Brazilian government has been
         cautious in loosening the reserves, it did let about $50 billion
         worth of reserves go in the first months after the crisis hit.

         As a result of Brazil's fiscal prudence over the past 14 or so
         years, the central bank has managed to store away $190.5 billion in
         official reserve assets***. Before the financial crisis, these
         reserves were even higher, at almost $207 billion. The government
         has another $24 billion in assets controlled by the Brazilian
         Development Bank (BNDES). In the private sector, capital
         accumulation is uniquely high, among Latin American countries.
         Because of extremely high reserve ratios on banking deposits --
         which is the percentage of each deposit that each bank has to hold
         onto, and cannot loan out -- the domestic banking sector boasts an
         impressive $100 billion in bank deposit reserves -- down 38.5
         percent from pre-crisis levels as the government has worked to
         increase credit throughout the country. Furthermore, Brazil's
         relative economic stability has earned the country the confidence of
         investors, who have responded with substantial foreign direct
         investment.
         The External Sector
         With domestic capital markets secure from the international turmoil,
         Brazil's biggest worry in the economic crisis is its external
         sector. Compared to many industrialized nations, Brazil has a
         relatively small export sector, which comprises about 13 percent of
         economic output. Of Brazil's exports, about 45 percent are
         manufactured goods, 30 percent are in raw commodities (such as oil,
         iron and soy), and the remainder is comprised mainly of
         semi-manufactured goods.

         Of Brazil's raw commodity exports, the energy sector is a
         particularly strong and promising area. Although Brazil will have to
         wait several more years before its recently discovered massive oil
         and natural gas deposits can be tapped [LINK], the country has an
         enormous amount of natural wealth that has clearly helped already --
         in Brazil's strong relationship with China -- and will continue to
         be a source of capital. Furthermore, Brazil's potential as an energy
         exporter is enhanced by the fact that it is the leading producer of
         ethanol, which means that Brazil can exploit the growing interest in
         integrating biofuels into national energy mixes. It also means that
         as soon as its oil wells do come online, they can translate much
         more quickly into exports and revenue generation. If Brazil follows
         through on plans currently under discussion to construct a
         petrochemical industry around its oil extraction, the country will
         find itself with a value-added industry that will further contribute
         to development.

         This commitment to value-added industry can be seen throughout
         Brazil's economy, which is characterized by relatively broad
         sectoral diversification. Brazil also has a substantial
         manufacturing sector. Brazil exports a number of industrial products
         that range from cars to petrochemicals to aircraft. Much of the
         industrial sector is led by a set of very able national champions.
         From Petroleos Brasilieros (Petrobras) [LINK] to Empresa Brasileira
         de Aeronautica (Embraer) [LINK], Brazil has a number of both
         publicly and privately owned companies that are extremely
         competitive in international markets, and operate with the full
         backing of the government. This well of strength is both economic
         and political. Brazil's ability to extend investment [LINK] and
         financing [LINK] -- a product of its substantial capital resources
         -- to partner countries all over the world means that Brazil has a
         growing number of opportunities even at a time of shrinking global
         wealth.

         However, Brazil's manufacturing sector has been hit the hardest by
         the downturn. While commodity exports were up just over 1 percent in
         the first quarter of 2009 as compared to the first quarter of 2008,
         manufacturing exports are down by 29.2 percent.

         In part, the impact on the external sector was caused by instability
         in the real. The financial crisis sparked immediate turmoil in the
         Brazilian currency, and the real's value tumbled almost 40 percent
         from highs in August to lows in December. The fall of the real
         sparked a trade crisis with Argentina [LINK], in which Argentina
         increased its non-tariff barriers to Brazilian goods (in order to
         protect its industries from suddenly much cheaper Brazilian
         imports), and exports to Argentina fell 49 percent from July to
         March. Over the same time period, total U.S. imports fell 34
         percent, triggering a 58 percent in Brazil's exports to the United
         States. The fall in exports came as a particularly harsh blow
         because the United States and Argentina tend to import higher
         value-added goods from Brazil. Overall, exports have dropped almost
         40 percent from highs in June -- due in part to the changing seasons
         and the fall in commodity prices -- although they have rebounded 20
         percent since January.

         Contributing to this, have been Brazilian exports to China, which
         have risen quite a bit in the wake of the crisis (after a sharp fall
         during the lead up to the U.S. financial sector's meltdown [LINK]).
         China's bid to secure access to natural resources all over the world
         has led the country to utilize its substantial capital reserves to
         cement business partnerships while prices are low, with an eye on
         securing access to the resources of the future. This has led China
         to stockpile some commodities, and seek partnerships with major
         natural resource producers, such as Brazil. Although China's
         increased imports from Brazil have been instrumental in spurring a
         current account surplus [LINK], because China's demand is primarily
         for commodities and unprocessed goods, increased trade with China
         cannot fix the damage to Brazil's manufacturing sector caused by
         collapsed trade with Argentina and the United States.

         There do appear to be some signs of recovery in the external sector
         already. After dropping by 17 percent in January, year-on-year,
         industrial production has increased for four straight months. Trade
         is recovering with some partners, including the United States. The
         Brazilian real has also begun to appreciate, although it is too
         early to say if the rally in markets around the world is here to
         stay. However, this is a mixed blessing, as the lower value for the
         real is a boon to Brazil's manufactured goods exports (commodities
         are all dollar-denominated). Brazilian Central Bank officials have
         sought to keep the Brazil at its devalued rate in order to hold on
         to the advantage.

         Unlike its southern neighbor, Argentina, which must keep its
         currency from devaluing or risk the rapid inflation of its foreign
         debt, Brazil's foreign debt profile is actually in pretty good
         shape. Brazil's foreign debt has held steady for the past several
         years, but GDP growth has brought foreign debt as a percentage of
         GDP down from 42 percent in 2002 to 12 percent in 2008. This is not
         to say that Brazil's debt structure is entirely rosy, as Brazil's
         total net public debt remains at 37 percent of GDP. With most of the
         debt held in domestic hands, it gives Brazil more flexibility to
         adjust its monetary policy vis-`a-vis its external markets, and it
         is an indication of the substantial capacity of the domestic capital
         markets.
         Conclusion
         Although Brazil has experienced a number of very serious challenges
         in relation to the international economic crisis, Brazil is
         remarkably well positioned to handle the crisis -- something that
         distinguishes Brazil from its Latin American fellows, and from
         developing nations all over the world. 

         Although Brazil's first quarter GDP measurements have not yet been
         released, the country appears to be well positioned to weather the
         storm. Official government estimates put Brazilian growth at about 1
         percent in 2009 -- which would make it one of the few states to grow
         in the coming year. Even if Brazil's economy does shrink this year,
         it will be slight. And following the recession, Brazil may well be
         one of the countries best positioned to come out of the crisis
         stronger than it went into it.

         --
         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com

     --
     Karen Hooper
     Latin America Analyst
     STRATFOR
     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-06-04 17:09:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-02 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1393779_re-analysis-for-comment-brazil-s-recession-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>hooper@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>robert.reinfrank@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/118/118818_Brazil vs. Russia.pdf</path><size>351646</size><md5></md5><sha1>7d0e2a24a4a74b98830a1d220219307851bb781a</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1395579</id>
    <title>ROMANIA/ENERGY - Romanian second nuclear plant to be built by 2030
</title>
    <description>   Romanian second nuclear plant to be built by 2030
   http://steelguru.com/news/index/MTI2OTgx/Romanian_second_nuclear_plant_to_be_built_by_2030.html
   Wednesday, 30 Dec 2009

   Romanian Times reported that Romania's second nuclear power plant will
   have 1,000 MW and be built by 2030, ten years later than authorities'
   previous estimates.

   Romanian authorities are considering three possible locations for the
   second nuclear power plant in the central part of the country in
   Transylvania.

   Romania's existing nuclear power plant at Cernavoda has two 700 MW
   reactors, which provide around 18% of the country's power needs.

   The authorities plan to build another two reactors at Cernavoda that are
   scheduled to become operational by 2015 or 2016.

 --
 Robert Reinfrank
 STRATFOR
 Austin, Texas
 W: +1 512 744-4110
 C: +1 310 614-1156
</description>
    <date>2009-12-30 17:37:11</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-07 05:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1395579_romania-energy-romanian-second-nuclear-plant-to-be-built-by.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>os@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>robert.reinfrank@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1401516</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT -- COTE D'IVOIRE -- thoughts on conditions and
 clashes in Abidjan
</title>
    <description>   Code: CI005
   Attribution: Stratfor source (is an American missionary in Abidjan)
   Publication: for background
   Source reliability: is pretty new
   Item credibility: 5
   Handler: Mark
   Suggested distribution: Alpha

   Things are getting much worse. What I am telling you is coming from people
   who live in the areas or have friends and family in those areas. In Abobo
   [a pro-Alassane Ouattara neighborhood of Abidjan that has been the main
   scene of clashes] the rebel forces are not civilians as reported on the
   major news networks. They are trained military from Burkina Faso, Mali and
   other countries. The UN is the one transporting them into Abobo and other
   areas and arming them. Many of them are demon worshipers and they cut the
   throats of anyone who appears to be supporting Gbagbo and use the blood
   and organs for sacrificial worship many times burning the people alive.
   They are also cutting open pregnant womens wombs and killing the infants
   to bring terror to the people. In other areas of the west they have burned
   whole villages and killed most of the inhabitants again performing
   sacrificial killings like I described before. They are stopping buses and
   demanding to see ID cards. If the names of the people are from tribes that
   appear to have supported Gbagbo they are immediately killed or burned
   alive. Actually there are only two tribes out of 60 to 65 tribes that they
   do not kill.

   The Ivorian Forces have now cleaned out much of Abobo since the government
   proclaimed a no fly zone. The UN tried to bring some more troops into
   Abobo by helicopter but the FDS fired on the helicopters purposely not
   hitting them, but firing around them to warn them off. They left and have
   not tried to come back.

   The economic embargo is not working for the international community. The
   people are not rebelling and some of the banks are open and servicing the
   people. The one part of the embargo that is working is the embargo on
   medicines. Many people are dying because they can't get medication.
   Children and old people dying of malaria without the simple cure. Still,
   they are not rebelling.

   Some days you wouldn't even know there was a conflict. People working,
   going to school, getting married, living life. If they expect the people
   to rebel they are foolish. They have chosen Gbagbo as their President and
   they will never rebel against him. Every time he or one of his men calls
   for a meeting or rally hundreds of thousands come out. If Quattara calls
   for anything, nothing happens. This should tell everyone the truth. You
   know, I talk to many people and I have asked them, "What if Gbagbo was
   killed or decided to step down? What do they think would happen?" Without
   hesitation they all say they would fight until every last Ivorian was
   killed before they would allow Ouattara to take power. They say he will
   have to walk over their dead bodies to get into the presidential palace.

   Mark, this whole situation is ridiculous. How far will the international
   community go to install their man into the Presidency. How many will have
   to die so they can control the resources of this nation. What is really
   sad is that if they really wanted to help the Ivorian people, they could
   talk this through, allow a new election and then the people would
   willingly allow them to come into the country and help bring real
   development that would benefit everyone. Wouldn't this achieve the same
   results without killing so many. Do they really want to see this much
   death and destruction?

   Please, as I asked before, never reveal my name or where you got this
   info. I am trusting you with my life. Already these terrorists have killed
   Ivorian journalists in their homes at night for printing these truths.
   Anyone who wants to know the truth can come here and find it. It is not
   hidden. The people are begging for the news media to report the truth. But
   no one is listening. If anyone here speaks the truth openly about Ouattara
   he sends the killers after them. Even President Zuma was attacked when
   leaving the Golf Hotel for appearing to support Gbagbo. All the
   Mauritanians are being attacked and their shops being looted and burned.
   They are now leaving the Ivory Coast because their President supported a
   peaceful solution and a new election.
</description>
    <date>2011-03-15 21:34:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-06 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1401516_-alpha-insight-cote-d-ivoire-thoughts-on-conditions-and.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mark.schroeder@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1409763</id>
    <title>Re: Follow Up from teleconference last week
</title>
    <description>   Steve,
   I am in Kentucky threw Wednesday and in back to back meetings Thursday, so
   Friday is the first time I can meet.  In the meantime, I know Rob and
   Holly have worked on many of those tasks so hopefully we will have
   everything at least identified regarding assignment by Friday.
   -Don
   Don R. Kuykendall 
   President &amp; Chief Financial Officer 
   STRATFOR 
   512.744.4314 phone 
   512.744.4334 fax 
   kuykendall@stratfor.com 
     
   _______________________ 
     
   http://www.stratfor.com 
   STRATFOR 
   221 W. 6th Street 
   Suite 400 
   Austin, Texas 78701 
   From: Stephen Feldhaus &lt;sf@feldhauslaw.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2011 12:03:00 -0400
   To: Holly Sparkman &lt;hsparkman@roriesparkman.com&gt;
   Cc: Don Kuykendall &lt;kuykendall@stratfor.com&gt;, Rob Bassetti
   &lt;rob.bassetti@stratfor.com&gt;, 'Dan Rorie' &lt;drorie@roriesparkman.com&gt;
   Subject: RE: Follow Up from teleconference last week

   Don,

    

   Here is the flow chart and the closing checklist.

    

   My best days next week are Tuesday after 9 Texas time and Wednesday before
   11 Texas time.

    

   I am also attaching the information that I sent to Rob and Don on April 29
   regarding the information we need to gather to be able to list all the
   contracts that we are going to assign to the new operating LLC.  We also
   need this list in order to be able to review the contracts to determine
   whether we need to obtain the approval of any of our customers/etc., for
   the assignment of their contracts.  For example, I would bet that OSIS
   requires that it approve any assignment of its contract.

    

   Rob and Don, I don't know what work has been done on this list,  but we
   need to get on top of it ASAP.  Please let me know when you have something
   that you are ready to share.  Can we schedule a call at the end of next
   week on this, say Thursday afternoon at 3 Texas time?  Holly and Dan don't
   need to be on this call.

    

   Best,

    

   Steve

    

    

    

    

                              CIRCULAR 230 NOTICE

   In accordance with Treasury Regulations, please note that any tax advice
   given herein (and in any attachments) is not intended or written to be
   used, and cannot be used by any taxpayer, for the purpose of (i) avoiding
   tax penalties or (ii) promoting, marketing or recommending to another
   party any transaction or matter addressed herein.

    

                             

   This e-mail and any attachments may contain confidential information
   belonging to the sender which is legally privileged. The information is
   intended only for the use of the individual or entity named above. If you
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   return e-mail, then delete the original message.

    

   From: Holly Sparkman [mailto:hsparkman@roriesparkman.com]
   Sent: Friday, June 10, 2011 1:39 PM
   To: Feldhaus, Stephen
   Cc: 'Don Kuykendall'; 'Rob Bassetti'; 'Dan Rorie'
   Subject: RE: Follow Up from teleconference last week

    

   If the entity is wholly owned by Stratfor, it will get pulled into GAAP
   and IRS audits which is what we are trying to avoid.  Let's discuss
   further when we speak next.  Using Philmont may be an option.

    

   Agreed on the bigger concern.

    

   Holly Sparkman

   Rorie Sparkman &amp; Associates LLC

   512-600-3212 t

   512-350-4736 m

   www.roriesparkman.com

    

   The information contained in this e-mail is confidential and may contain
   privileged, proprietary, or otherwise private information.  If received in
   error, please destroy and notify sender.  Sender does not waive
   confidentiality or privilege, and use is prohibited.

    

    

   From: Feldhaus, Stephen [mailto:sf@feldhauslaw.com]
   Sent: Friday, June 10, 2011 12:35 PM
   To: Holly Sparkman
   Cc: 'Don Kuykendall'; 'Rob Bassetti'; 'Dan Rorie'
   Subject: RE: Follow Up from teleconference last week

    

   Holly,

    

   More on the other items later, as I am tied up until after 3:30 or so
   today, and then only free until 4:00, but I wanted to reply about NEWCO. 
   My strong advice would be to try to form a disregarded entity wholly owned
   by Stratfor to make the payments.  We are doing that now with Philmont in
   the Bahamas for overseas payments.  We could even use Philmont for that
   matter.

    

   A bigger concern is to ensure that the recipients are in fact independent
   contractors and not employees, and also that we have a mechanism to ensure
   that we can show that these are not prohibited payments, for example,
   prohibited by the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.

    

   Best,

    

   Steve

    

    

    

    

                              CIRCULAR 230 NOTICE

   In accordance with Treasury Regulations, please note that any tax advice
   given herein (and in any attachments) is not intended or written to be
   used, and cannot be used by any taxpayer, for the purpose of (i) avoiding
   tax penalties or (ii) promoting, marketing or recommending to another
   party any transaction or matter addressed herein.

    

                             

   This e-mail and any attachments may contain confidential information
   belonging to the sender which is legally privileged. The information is
   intended only for the use of the individual or entity named above. If you
   are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or the taking of any action regarding
   the contents of this e-mailed information is strictly prohibited. If you
   have received this transmission in error, please immediately notify us by
   return e-mail, then delete the original message.

    

   From: Holly Sparkman [mailto:hsparkman@roriesparkman.com]
   Sent: Friday, June 10, 2011 12:34 PM
   To: Feldhaus, Stephen
   Cc: 'Don Kuykendall'; 'Rob Bassetti'; 'Dan Rorie'
   Subject: RE: Follow Up from teleconference last week

    

   Dear Steve:

    

   I thought I sent this email on Tuesday, but I'm not sure I ever hit the
   send button.

    

   Have you had the opportunity get on Robert Philpott's schedule for next
   week for a conference call with Dan Rorie to follow up on tax
   structure/issues (item 5 below)?  I think we discussed June 15, 16 or
   17th.  Dan and I are scheduled to meet Monday to prepare an agenda list.

    

   Also, please see attached write up per item 9 below for your review.  I
   believe Don and Rob have spoken to Meredith who is supportive of the
   concept. Realistically, the Newco could be owned by anyone (Don or George)
   who is a minority shareholder of the Inc or LLC to avoid common ownership
   for purposes of GAAP audit.  Dan mentioned, too that there was a Nevada
   corporation that was set up years ago for this purpose (Universal
   Analytics), however, by search on the Nevada Secretary of State site, that
   corporation has been dissolved.  Once the approved, we are happy to do the
   legwork internally since I know you have a lot on your plate right now.

    

   Please let us know if you have any questions or need assistance with
   meeting any of the proposed due dates below.

    

   Sincerely,

   Holly

    

   Holly Sparkman

   512-350-4736

    

   From: Holly Sparkman [mailto:hsparkman@roriesparkman.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, June 01, 2011 2:33 PM
   To: 'Stephen Feldhaus'
   Cc: 'Don Kuykendall'; 'Rob Bassetti'; 'Dan Rorie'
   Subject: Follow Up from teleconference last week

    

   Dear Steve:

    

   Below is a list of notes from last Thursday's conference call regarding
   more immediate pending items.    I took the liberty of suggesting internal
   "due date" for tasks below.  Please let me know if you have any questions,
   require further information, or wish to suggest a different due date.

    

   1)    Steve (June 10) to request copy of Certificate of Formation and IRS
   SS-4/EIN for new Delaware LLC, provide copy to Holly/Rob

   2)      Steve (June 10)  to provide flow chart view of new proposed entity
   structure

   3)      Steve (June 10) to provide closing task list for Aug 1, 12am close

   4)      Steve (June 10) to review missing data per shareholder spreadsheet
   provided and discussed last week (and attached for your convenience), upon
   Steve's review and updates, Rob to follow up on missing data

   a.       Missing Restricted Stock Agreements: 

                                                                  i.     
   Grant Perry

                                                                ii.      Jay
   Young

   b.      Series A documentation discrepancies

                                                                  i.     
   Fred (ck/cert)

                                                                ii.      Bart
   Mongoven (agreement/cert)

                                                               iii.     
   Van/Feldhaus (dates)

   c.       83(b) elections missing copies for 5 people

   d.      Series B documentation: various

   e.      Preferred Stock, do not have copies of certificates being issued

   5)      Steve (June 3) to schedule conference call with Robert Philpott
   for week of June 13th with Dan Rorie, Don, Rob and Holly to discuss tax
   considerations for all legal entities (related to recording transaction as
   well as go forward profit allocations, etc)  Dan/Holly to prepare list of
   topics for discussion by June 10th.

   6)      Holly (June 10)  to consult with Maxwell Locke &amp; Ritter regarding
   GAAP issues for transaction recording and go-forward audit considerations

   7)      Holly/Rob (June 10) to provide outline of state jurisdiction
   issues including employees by state with broad job description and
   coordinate with Feldhaus/Philpott for new LLC registration/recommendations
   for appropriate states

   8)      Rob (June 10)  to clean up old State of Texas registrations

   9)      Holly (June 3) to provide write up for proposed new legal entity
   to handle anonymous source payment

   10)   Holly to update shareholder list to include following (done--see
   attached)

   a.       Correction for rounding error

   b.      Removal of restricted stock distinction

   c.       Change 75% voting list to 2/3 vote list

   11)   Rob/Holly (June 17) to review files for copies of old p/s tax
   returns and work with Don to restructure current tax basis for major
   shareholders (Don, George, Feldhaus, etc), note, Holly reviewed
   preliminarily with Dan Rorie, we have expectation that there was zero tax
   basis at time of 2003 LLC treated as partnership for Federal tax was
   merged/converted to C Corp.  To extent more money was put into C Corp in
   the form of equity, may be tax basis.

         12)  Rob (June 17) to handle opening new operating account with TCB
   for new legal entity once item (1) above is received, need account open
   and ready to receive funds prior to closing.

         13)  Holly/Rob (June 30) to ready new Quickbooks online account for
   new LLC for operations prior to closing.

          14)  Rob/Holly/Fernando (June 17) to provide master contracts
   schedule identifying any contract assignment issues for discussion the
   week of June 13.

    

   Thanks,

   Holly

    

   Holly Sparkman

   Rorie Sparkman &amp; Associates LLC

   1250 S. Capital of Texas Hwy

   Bldg 1, Suite 300

   Austin, TX  78746

   512-600-3212 t

   512-327-3411 f

   512-350-4736 m

   www.roriesparkman.com

    

   The information contained in this e-mail is confidential and may contain
   privileged, proprietary, or otherwise private information.  If received in
   error, please destroy and notify sender.  Sender does not waive
   confidentiality or privilege, and use is prohibited.

    

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   No virus found in this message.
   Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
   Version: 10.0.1375 / Virus Database: 1511/3673 - Release Date: 06/01/11
</description>
    <date>2011-06-17 21:16:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1409763_re-follow-up-from-teleconference-last-week-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sf@feldhauslaw.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>rob.bassetti@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>hsparkman@roriesparkman.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>drorie@roriesparkman.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1413539</id>
    <title>Re: Invoice for Stratcap
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-09-18 21:12:34</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1413539_re-invoice-for-stratcap-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>rob.bassetti@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>holly.sparkman@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/120/120562_2011 09 15 Fin.pdf</path><size>90238</size><md5></md5><sha1>543c0eacb02c20431ce6b3724fe649c125fbd0e0</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1413548</id>
    <title>ME1 pay increase
</title>
    <description>Just received word from Meredith to increase pay for ME1 to $6000 per 
month, half coded to current department, half coded to 570 (Stratcap).

-- 
Rob Bassetti
STRATFOR
Finance Department
512-744-4081
bassetti@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-17 18:22:42</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1413548_me1-pay-increase-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bassetti@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>payroll@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1413628</id>
    <title>Re: Abraxas (Trapwire) Contract
</title>
    <description>He seemed to be straight up so I'll just beat nothing ever closed.  Can't
believe he would squeeze us out since there was a contract between us.
We'll see I guess.


Don R. Kuykendall 
Chairman &amp; President
STRATFOR 
221 W. 6th Street 
Suite 400 
Austin, Texas 78701
 512.744.4314 phone
512.744.4105 fax 
http://www.stratfor.com &lt;http://www.stratfor.com/&gt;






On 11/1/11 3:02 PM, "burton@stratfor.com" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

&gt;Yes, Mike I think is still there.
&gt;
&gt;------Original Message------
&gt;From: Don Kuykendall {6}
&gt;To: Fred Burton {6}
&gt;Cc: Rob Bassetti
&gt;Cc: Darryl O'Connor
&gt;Subject: Re: Abraxas (Trapwire) Contract
&gt;Sent: Nov 1, 2011 1:54 PM
&gt;
&gt;Good idea.  Is Mike (I think that was his name) still there?
&gt;
&gt;Sent from my iPhone
&gt;
&gt;On Nov 1, 2011, at 12:18 PM, Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:
&gt;
&gt;&gt; My contact w/Gov. Perry has not gotten back to me.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; It may be best (for me?) to send the contract back to Abraxass and
&gt;&gt; diplomatically check on the status of any referral fees owed?
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; I know it took months and maybe up to two years to get the system
&gt;&gt; installed, funded and approved.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; On 10/27/2011 12:42 PM, Rob Bassetti wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Rob Bassetti
&gt;&gt;&gt; STRATFOR
&gt;&gt;&gt; Finance Department
&gt;&gt;&gt; 512-744-4081
&gt;&gt;&gt; bassetti@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2011-11-01 21:30:37</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1413628_re-abraxas-trapwire-contract-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>oconnor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bassetti@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1413968</id>
    <title>Departmental Reports
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-10-20 22:08:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1413968_departmental-reports-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>holly.sparkman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>fernando.jaimes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bassetti@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/120/120577_511-Finance_HR, September 2011.pdf</path><size>121301</size><md5></md5><sha1>ce75f942ae717a507c5bcc0cb884411927355cb2</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/120/120579_514-IT, 9_2011.pdf</path><size>119855</size><md5></md5><sha1>ebba9aa08cfe025c9a60869580665428bbd3b783</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/120/120580_534-Customer Service, 9_2011.pdf</path><size>92213</size><md5></md5><sha1>7926be037ce75ae1eeebab6293a06ee16c901bab</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/120/120581_563-ADP, 9_2011.pdf</path><size>107088</size><md5></md5><sha1>6aa4c9a01fbe9265400694e5ef538bdd132c9c1f</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/120/120582_562-Strategic Intelligence, 9_2011.pdf</path><size>109265</size><md5></md5><sha1>b216fbffef77343405f96dc326df15448d497f2a</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/120/120583_567-Multimedia, 9_2011.pdf</path><size>96391</size><md5></md5><sha1>5f53c1d80dbc862d8ede73458a181aeef2ddac94</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/120/120584_561-Op Center, 9_2011.pdf</path><size>93674</size><md5></md5><sha1>0c5b947ee250da70e2db0614e51f8dd181fec61a</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/120/120585_564-Tactical Intelligence, 9_2011.pdf</path><size>109735</size><md5></md5><sha1>a72aa37ed2d891b3ed6cf2771314810b5fb8018c</sha1></file>
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      <file><path>attach/120/120589_513-DC Facilities, 9_2011.pdf</path><size>90456</size><md5></md5><sha1>0338d2514413d66b5a06e75f684e05ee402d2a33</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/120/120590_533-Individual Sales, 9_2011.pdf</path><size>93347</size><md5></md5><sha1>2850860072828026f926239e6072f0962969e53a</sha1></file>
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      <file><path>attach/120/120592_531-Executive, 9_2011.pdf</path><size>121173</size><md5></md5><sha1>0996bb4217d8d66e840f6a04bdabb802cf978d22</sha1></file>
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      <file><path>attach/120/120595_841-International, 9_2011.pdf</path><size>105294</size><md5></md5><sha1>aed0d9e4ef34b52718eec0faf81ff0516bf48120</sha1></file>
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      <file><path>attach/120/120636_000-All Departments Summary Sheet1.pdf</path><size>34005</size><md5></md5><sha1>c2b7bdd80d498b6039ca0d5953c0f98eb969a8e2</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1413997</id>
    <title>COMPLETED TASK: Swedish EU Agenda
</title>
    <description>   Attached is the sweep document, the working programme from the office of
   the pm, and a guide to the swedish presidency from a business consultancy.

 Robert Reinfrank
 STRATFOR Intern
 Austin, Texas
 P: + 1-310-614-1156
 robert.reinfrank@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 Date:  June 23, 2009
 Analyst:  Marko Papic
 RESEARCHER: Robert (he is expecting it)
 PRIORITY: 1

 "I need a really thorough sweep of articles about the upcoming Swedish EU Presidency. Please also check the Presidency website and try to see if there is any sense of what the agenda may be... Although that may not be as easy as it sounds."




   Marko Papic wrote:

     RESEARCHER: Robert (he is expecting it)
     PRIORITY: 1

     I need a really thorough sweep of articles about the upcoming Swedish EU
     Presidency. Please also check the Presidency website and try to see if
     there is any sense of what the agenda may be... Although that may not be
     as easy as it sounds.
</description>
    <date>2009-06-23 17:21:28</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1413997_completed-task-swedish-eu-agenda-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>interns@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>robert.reinfrank@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>research@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/120/120643_The Swedish EU Presidency.doc</path><size>64512</size><md5></md5><sha1>25222e7bd35c17b6b767ea50fac831b5879cb8c7</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/120/120644_Swedish Presidency Business Guide.pdf</path><size>5223275</size><md5></md5><sha1>5c0ead69acfbe0b80872ff115cc997b9c50de831</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/120/120645_Working Programme.pdf</path><size>424545</size><md5></md5><sha1>cebb9f3e985420fd3cd4f181852151579117d55a</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1414158</id>
    <title>Re: ME1 pay increase
</title>
    <description>   Does Don get these emails?  He should.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Rob Bassetti" &lt;bassetti@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "payroll" &lt;payroll@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, October 17, 2011 11:22:42 AM
   Subject: ME1 pay increase

   Just received word from Meredith to increase pay for ME1 to $6000 per
   month, half coded to current department, half coded to 570 (Stratcap).

   --
   Rob Bassetti
   STRATFOR
   Finance Department
   512-744-4081
   bassetti@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-17 21:22:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 02:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1414158_re-me1-pay-increase-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>holly.sparkman@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bassetti@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1414885</id>
    <title>Re: Abraxas (Trapwire) Contract
</title>
    <description>V2UgYXJlIHRyeWluZyB0byBzZWUgaWYgdGhleSBvd2UgdXMgbW9uZXkuICBJ
dHMgcG9zc2libGUgdGhleSBkbywgYnV0IHdlIGFyZSBjb2xsZWN0aW5nIG1v
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YWdlLS0tLS0tDQpGcm9tOiBEb24gS3V5a2VuZGFsbCB7Nn0NClRvOiBSb2Ig
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Y3QNClNlbnQ6IE9jdCAyNywgMjAxMSA2OjM3IFBNDQoNCldoYXQncyB0aGUg
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X19fX19fX19fX19fDQoNCmh0dHA6Ly93d3cuc3RyYXRmb3IuY29tIDxodHRw
Oi8vd3d3LnN0cmF0Zm9yLmNvbS8+DQpTVFJBVEZPUg0KMjIxIFcuIDZ0aCBT
dHJlZXQNClN1aXRlIDQwMA0KQXVzdGluLCBUZXhhcyA3ODcwMQ0KDQoNCg0K
DQoNCg0KT24gMTAvMjcvMTEgMTI6NDIgUE0sICJSb2IgQmFzc2V0dGkiIDxi
YXNzZXR0aUBzdHJhdGZvci5jb20+IHdyb3RlOg0KDQo+DQo+Um9iIEJhc3Nl
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LTQwODENCj5iYXNzZXR0aUBzdHJhdGZvci5jb20NCj4NCj4NCg0KDQoNCg0K
U2VudCB2aWEgQmxhY2tCZXJyeSBieSBBVCZU
</description>
    <date>2011-10-28 01:49:37</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1414885_re-abraxas-trapwire-contract-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>oconnor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bassetti@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1420004</id>
    <title>Re: Abraxas (Trapwire) Contract
</title>
    <description>What's the deal here?  I forgot about this.


Don R. Kuykendall 
President &amp; Chief Financial Officer
STRATFOR 
512.744.4314 phone 
512.744.4334 fax 
kuykendall@stratfor.com
  
_______________________
  
http://www.stratfor.com &lt;http://www.stratfor.com/&gt;
STRATFOR 
221 W. 6th Street 
Suite 400 
Austin, Texas 78701






On 10/27/11 12:42 PM, "Rob Bassetti" &lt;bassetti@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

&gt;
&gt;Rob Bassetti
&gt;STRATFOR
&gt;Finance Department
&gt;512-744-4081
&gt;bassetti@stratfor.com
&gt;
&gt;
</description>
    <date>2011-10-28 01:37:44</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1420004_re-abraxas-trapwire-contract-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>oconnor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bassetti@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1423282</id>
    <title>[alpha] Fw: Oslo
</title>
    <description>   Trapwire

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:18:40 -0500 (CDT)
   To: burton@stratfor.com&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Oslo
   99 percent sure. Some reports already confirming.
    
   From: burton@stratfor.com [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, July 22, 2011 12:15 PM
   To: Michael Maness
   Subject: Re: Oslo
    
   Think it was a bomb?

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:00:28 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Oslo

   My money's on a Libyan connection.

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 18:31:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1423282_-alpha-fw-oslo-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1424382</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Once we do know, then we will know who was behind it.

   Until then, this is all conjecture and opinion.  And you know what
   opinions are like.

   On 7/22/11 9:13 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     We don't know

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:12:04 -0500 (CDT)
     To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
     Was the shooter a Libyan?

     On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:15:11</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1424382_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1425322</id>
    <title>Fwd: Fwd: Faruk
</title>
    <description>   Did this transaction to Mehmet Faruk Demir go through? Is it set up to go
   through regularly each month now? Just want to make sure I don't drop the
   ball on anything here.

   Thanks,
   Meredith

   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: Fwd: Faruk                                                        
      Date: Thu, 12 May 2011 16:54:22 -0500                                   
      From: Meredith Friedman &lt;mfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;                        
        To: 'Rob Bassetti' &lt;rob.bassetti@stratfor.com&gt;, 'Meredith Friedman'   
            &lt;meredith@stratfor.com&gt;                                           

   Rob - I will tell you about this new international payment but here are
   the details of the bank account. I'm not sure if you have everything you
   need for an international wire transfer here but if you do not please let
   me know. Thanks.

   The amount is 20k per year divided into equal monthly amounts.


   Hey George, Faruk says monthly payment is fine. Below is his bank account
   (US Dollar) information. I'm in touch with him as far as information
   gathering is concerned. Please let me know if you need anything else on
   this.
   Mehmet Faruk Demir
   GARANTI BANKASI
   Bank Account Nr: 1145/9099546
   IBAN  TR79 0006 2001 1450 0009 0995 46
   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-05-20 16:13:31</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1425322_fwd-fwd-faruk-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>rob.bassetti@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>meredith@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1427935</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA - them's fightin' words
</title>
    <description>   I have been saying that Turkey is looking at a Syria beyond al-Assad but I
   doubt that it is moving this fast.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Wilson &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2011 16:36:59 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA - them's fightin' words
   wait, what is an NDZ?

   On 6/15/11 2:19 PM, Reginald Thompson wrote:

     PUBLICATION: background/analysis
     ATTRIBUTION: Turkish diplomatic source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION:
     Turkish diplomat in Lebanon
     Reliability : C
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: 4-- we need to check on the claim that turkey will
     actually move forward with setting up a NDZ
     DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
     SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

     yesterday's phone call between Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip
     Erdogan and Syrian president Bashar Asad ended in failure. The call was
     made by Erdogan but Asad was quick to congratulate him on his party's
     third consecutive victory in parliamentary elections. Erdogan was very
     blunt. He told Asad that he did not call him to be congratulated,
     especially since Asad did not take the initiative to call. Erdogan told
     Asad he wanted to get to the point with regard to reforms. Asad said he
     is keen on reform once the army eliminates the salafis. Erdogan
     retorted: "Do not give me excuses. You know there are no salafis."
     Erdogan told Asad that even if there were salafis, there was no reason
     why the authorities would punish the entire Syrian people.
     Angry Erdogan told Asad that he did not want to hear words from him any
     more. He told him the time has come for actions. Erdogan demanded a
     timetable for bringing about the reforms. He got upset when Asad said
     :"Inshallah soon we will have a timetable." Erdogan came out with the
     impression that Asad was still bluffing him. Asad did not give any
     indication that his troops will terminate their military campaign. 
     Erdogan will now support any UN resolution and will go ahead with any
     requests for establishing a safe have along the border with Syria.
     Turkish assessments indicate that it will take eight months to oust Asad
     from the presidency

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-06-15 23:41:19</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-15 20:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1427935_re-alpha-insight-turkey-syria-them-s-fightin-words-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1429379</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Was the shooter a Libyan?

   On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:11:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1429379_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1429401</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Qaddaffi out-sources jobs, going back to Carlos the Jackal.

   Ck the OS about 3-4 weeks ago, about Qaddaffi hiring mercs.

   The suspect could be ex-French Foreign Legion.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:30:48 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   Maybe, or he could be the Norwegian McVeigh.

   On 7/22/11 9:26 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     Mercenary
     Contract hit

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Hoor Jangda &lt;hoor.jangda@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:25:36 -0500 (CDT)
     To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
     the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
     height.

     On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

       Was the shooter a Libyan?

       On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:34:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1429401_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1429444</id>
    <title>Re: Abraxas (Trapwire) Contract
</title>
    <description>Good idea.  Is Mike (I think that was his name) still there?

Sent from my iPhone

On Nov 1, 2011, at 12:18 PM, Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

&gt; My contact w/Gov. Perry has not gotten back to me.  
&gt; 
&gt; It may be best (for me?) to send the contract back to Abraxass and
&gt; diplomatically check on the status of any referral fees owed?
&gt; 
&gt; I know it took months and maybe up to two years to get the system
&gt; installed, funded and approved.  
&gt; 
&gt; On 10/27/2011 12:42 PM, Rob Bassetti wrote:
&gt;&gt; 
&gt;&gt; Rob Bassetti
&gt;&gt; STRATFOR
&gt;&gt; Finance Department
&gt;&gt; 512-744-4081
&gt;&gt; bassetti@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt; 
&gt;&gt; 
</description>
    <date>2011-11-01 19:54:16</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1429444_re-abraxas-trapwire-contract-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>oconnor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bassetti@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1429763</id>
    <title>Client working list
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-04-23 06:54:15</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1429763_client-working-list-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>sf@feldhauslaw.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Don.kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/5/5728_image001.png</path><size>10140</size><md5></md5><sha1>b9e56aa337655bf9d36595302d82ffa17d3cf9c6</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/37/37035_client list.xls</path><size>29184</size><md5></md5><sha1>a28bd03dc5895e16ef1ef634c8a207ba862b74c7</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1429826</id>
    <title>categories for clients
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2010-11-27 17:52:32</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1429826_categories-for-clients-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>darryl.oconnor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>holly.sparkman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/5/5728_image001.png</path><size>10140</size><md5></md5><sha1>b9e56aa337655bf9d36595302d82ffa17d3cf9c6</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/122/122407_Client list.xls</path><size>30208</size><md5></md5><sha1>0faca12a8ef4c09e1cf3ddc217c71593fa83cff6</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1431520</id>
    <title>Fwd: Jen Richmond's Source
</title>
    <description>42</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1431520_fwd-jen-richmond-s-source-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>rob.bassetti@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>meredith.friedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ar@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/122/122530_Bill or Credit - STRATFOR - QuickBooks Online Plus.pdf</path><size>78568</size><md5></md5><sha1>a91d9def94fb64f0c84fb01e14cb753ebefb4a17</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1432830</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Libyans also pay foreign mercenaries.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:12:04 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   Was the shooter a Libyan?

   On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:13:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1432830_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1432841</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Mercenary
   Contract hit

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Hoor Jangda &lt;hoor.jangda@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:25:36 -0500 (CDT)
   To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
   height.

   On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

     Was the shooter a Libyan?

     On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:26:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1432841_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1434182</id>
    <title>[OS] MEXICO/CT - Official: Mexican cartels use money,
 sex to bribe U.S. border agents
</title>
    <description>Areceli sent a Spanish Language article to OS talking about the same 
issues at 9:18 AM

Official: Mexican cartels use money, sex to bribe U.S. border agents
http://us.cnn.com/2011/US/06/09/mexico.border.corruption/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
By the CNN Wire Staff
June 9, 2011 8:17 p.m. EDT

Since October 2004, 127 border and customs agents have been arrested or 
indicted in corruption cases.
Since October 2004, 127 border and customs agents have been arrested or 
indicted in corruption cases.
STORY HIGHLIGHTS

     127 U.S. border or customs employees have been arrested since 2004, 
an official says
     Drug cartels use many ways to bribe agents, an inspector general's 
report finds
     The Anti-Border Corruption Act will help, an official says


Washington (CNN) -- Mexican drug cartels have used cash and sexual 
favors as tools to corrupt U.S. border and customs agents, an inspector 
general investigation has found.

In exchange, agents allow contraband or unauthorized immigrants through 
inspection lanes, protect or escort traffickers or leak sensitive 
information, said Charles Edwards, acting inspector general of the 
Department of Homeland Security.

Testifying before a Senate subcommittee, Edwards cited the Zetas drug 
cartel as one of the leaders "involved increasingly in systematic 
corruption."

He did not elaborate on how non-cash methods of corruption, like sexual 
favors, have been used to corrupt agents.

Since October 2004, 127 Customs and Border Protection employees have 
been arrested or indicted for acts of corruption, said agency 
Commissioner Alan Bersin, speaking at the same hearing of the Senate 
Subcommittee on Disaster Recovery and Intergovernmental Affairs.

Mexican President Felipe Calderon's offensive against the drug cartels, 
combined with a surge in the hiring of border agents in recent years, 
have multiplied the risks of corruption, Bersin said.

Today, the Border Patrol counts more than 20,700 agents, more than 
double its size in 2004. Bersin implied that the rapid hiring spree may 
have come at the cost of hiring less qualified agents.

"The accelerated hiring pace under which we operated between 2006 and 
2008 -- and, frankly, mistakes from which we are learning -- exposed 
critical organizational and individual vulnerabilities within CBP," he said.

To face this challenge, the commissioner touted the passage of the 
Anti-Border Corruption Act of 2010, which requires that by 2013, all the 
agency's law enforcement applicants must receive a polygraph test before 
being hired. It also calls for periodic reinvestigations into the 
background of its agents.

"I cannot overemphasize that the overwhelming majority of CBP officers 
and agents demonstrate the highest levels of integrity every day," 
Bersin said.

Edwards noted that the department inspector general's Office of 
Investigations has added 10 positions to address corruption complaints 
among Customs and Border Protection agents. He added, however, that that 
represented a 6% increase in the size of his staff, compared with a 34% 
increase in the size of the agency as a whole.

Since 2004, his office has seen a 38% increase in the number of 
complaints against Customs and Border Protection employees, he said. The 
inspector general's office initiated a record 870 investigations in 
fiscal year 2010, he said.

"However," he added, "our investigations are complicated by the 
brutality the cartels use to control their organizations and coerce 
witnesses, and the sophistication and advanced technologies available to 
organizations with unlimited money.

-- 
Colby Martin
Tactical Analyst
colby.martin@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-06-10 17:24:46</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1434182_-os-mexico-ct-official-mexican-cartels-use-money-sex-to.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>os@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>colby.martin@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:os@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1436674</id>
    <title>Trapwire
</title>
    <description>Rob:

Two or so years ago we had an agreement with these guys which said we
get 8% (I think) of their sales to the State of TX.
Can you find such an agreement? If you can't, you might query Jeff
emails for some evidence of it.  This just came to mind
in a conversation with Fred.  There may be some monies we're owed so i
wanted to run this down.  Thanks.

Darryl
</description>
    <date>2011-10-27 19:15:57</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1436674_trapwire-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>oconnor@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>rob.bassetti@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1440565</id>
    <title>[alpha] Fw: Oslo
</title>
    <description>   Trapwire

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:00:28 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Oslo

   My money's on a Libyan connection.

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 18:04:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1440565_-alpha-fw-oslo-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1440742</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Maybe, or he could be the Norwegian McVeigh.

   On 7/22/11 9:26 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     Mercenary
     Contract hit

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Hoor Jangda &lt;hoor.jangda@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:25:36 -0500 (CDT)
     To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
     the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
     height.

     On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

       Was the shooter a Libyan?

       On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:30:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1440742_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1443616</id>
    <title>RE: System for coordinating in Turkey
</title>
    <description>   Understand and agree. Obviously, this doesn't apply to non-STRATFOR
   communications as I have personal relations with many of the people there.
    

    

   From: Emre Dogru [mailto:emre.dogru@stratfor.com]
   Sent: June-17-10 11:12 AM
   To: Meredith Friedman
   Cc: 'Reva Bhalla'; 'Kamran Bokhari'; gfriedman@stratfor.com; 'scott
   stewart'
   Subject: Re: System for coordinating in Turkey

    

   Absolutely.

   Meredith Friedman wrote:

   Yes it applies in the sense that we also need to make sure we're
   coordinating on the questions and our analysis of something. So you should
   let us know when you are going to contact a source and what about in case
   George or Reva or Kamran have an additional comment or question for that
   source. So it's not just about sources but about issues and our take on
   things. Does that make sense?

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Emre Dogru [mailto:emre.dogru@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, June 17, 2010 10:04 AM
   To: Reva Bhalla
   Cc: Meredith Friedman; 'Kamran Bokhari'; gfriedman@stratfor.com; 'scott
   stewart'
   Subject: Re: System for coordinating in Turkey

   Understood. I don't think that this applies to the discussions with the
   sources only I know (some of which speak only Turkish) because there is no
   way of overlapping, right?

   Reva Bhalla wrote:

   Sounds good. Agree on the need for coordination since a lot of our
   contacts overlap.  I briefed George this morning on a source I'll be
   having dinner with tonight, Cengiz Candar, who is visiting from Turkey and
   who Emre also knows.  Will send out a report after the meeting

    

    

   On Jun 17, 2010, at 9:55 AM, Meredith Friedman wrote:

   We need to work hard to coordinate our work in Turkey going forward since
   we have all had contact at varying times with some of the same people, in
   the same ministries and think tanks and banks etc. While the level of our
   contacts in some cases was different (e.g. George and I met with the
   Turkish FM and with CEO of IsBank, while Reva and Kamran have met with
   advisors to the FM/president and managers or directors at IsBank) we also
   have met with some of the same people (Ibrahim Kalin for example). 
   Sometimes it may be best for Emre to contact the source directly as he can
   pick up the phone, speaks the language and is on the same time zone.

   Here is how we'll make sure we don't overlap, double up, confuse or
   contradict each other and our sources going forward.

   1. Before contacting any of our sources in Turkey (or Turkish sources here
   in USA) each of you will email this list with your intended question and
   unless it's a true emergency situation, wait to get any additional
   questions or comments from this group before proceeding with your
   contact. If a discussion is needed quickly set up a quick phone call to
   clarify the issue or question to be asked with members of this group
   before contacting the source. 

   2. When you get a response from the source you will email that response to
   this group as well so you all see the response to the question asked. If
   it's information to be put out quickly as INSIGHT then use the normal
   method of getting it out through the Watch Officers. The first word after
   INSIGHT in the subject line should always be the country so that we can
   see easily what is from Turkey.

   We can refine this as we go along but it's really important now to synch
   our contacts with these sources and for you to know what George may have
   said in a meeting while we were in the country.

   I am setting up a separate system for asking and taking questions from our
   confederation partners - Hurriyet and Sabah - and will send that our
   separately. 

   Stick let us know if you have any comments on this?

    

   Meredith

    

    

 --

 Emre Dogru

  

 STRATFOR

 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514

 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468

 emre.dogru@stratfor.com

 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Emre Dogru

  

 STRATFOR

 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514

 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468

 emre.dogru@stratfor.com

 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-06-17 17:23:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-09 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1443616_re-system-for-coordinating-in-turkey-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1446066</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   We don't know

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:12:04 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   Was the shooter a Libyan?

   On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:13:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1446066_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1446076</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
   height.

   On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

     Was the shooter a Libyan?

     On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:25:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1446076_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>hoor.jangda@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1446311</id>
    <title>[Fwd: Re: GUIDANCE - Questions on PKK]
</title>
    <description>   Reva and Scott, thank you for this great guidance. It's really helpful to
   think about these questions and I think we will have very detailed
   information on PKK (probably that no one else has) if we can answer even
   one third of the questions below. However, I've no idea how I can even
   start getting answers on this. Such a guidance requires an extensive
   research and preparation period, plus travels to (Diyarbakir, Sirnak,
   Ankara etc) to try to reach out to people who may be willing to share
   information with us. I don't know what Yerevan thinks but as such, I would
   say this guidance cannot be fulfilled by only calling people I know. (To
   put this into perspective, my main journalist source, Cengiz Candar,
   prepared an extensive PKK report - which was released two weeks ago - in
   six months with the financial backing of the biggest think-tank in Turkey.
   And there are still unanswered questions).

   I honestly do not believe that we will have a clear answer to the main
   question that we ask "What's the level of Ocalan's authority" at the end
   of this process. Recall that we tried to learn exactly the same thing few
   months ago (political conditions were similar - on which I can talk about
   more in detail) and found out that this is not a question that we can
   answer with certainty. Because such a thing would be our own
   political/social assessment that we can come up with after answering your
   questions below. (Assuming that we can).

   So, if you really think we need to engage in this effort, I believe this
   is a decision that you guys need to take at the company because there will
   be costs of time, money, people etc. Please let me (and Yerevan) know.
   -------- Original Message --------

    Subject: Re: GUIDANCE - Questions on PKK      
       Date: Fri, 05 Aug 2011 12:53:13 -0400      
       From: scott stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt; 
   Reply-To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt; 
         To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt; 

   I guess the other thing I would add is that we don't want to just focus on
   high-level contacts. Sometimes mid-level guys can help us get a far
   clearer view of the dynamic within the group than upper level guys who are
   insulated from the guys in the trenches.
   In this case, it would be very important to understand how the rank and
   file PKK members really feel about Ocalan and other leaders. That might be
   far different than what the PR spinners are trying to portray and help us
   identify any fractures in the Org. A 
   From: Reva Bhalla &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Reply-To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 5 Aug 2011 10:37:22 -0500 (CDT)
   To: &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: GUIDANCE - Questions on PKK
   TFL was having a discussion this morning on the questions we need to
   answer on PKK command and control.A  No issue is too complex for us to
   tackle. There is a process that we need to follow in collecting
   information on this issue. We have both Kurdish and Turkish contacts that
   can help in developing an assessment.A  The following is my guidance on
   how to approach this issue with sources and the types of questions you
   need to be asking yourself and your sources. Tactical team, if you have
   any input on this, would like to hear it.

   Questions we need to answer:

   A 

   What is the current command and control structure of the PKK?A  More
   directly, does Ocalan command as much authority as he used to over the
   movement?

   A 

   To answer this, begin with developing a foundation for the analysis:

   A 

   How would you describe PKKa**s traditional command and control structure?
   (how was the group organized between political and militant wings, what
   was the leadership structure, how are orders disseminated from the
   leadership to the rank and file members?)

   A 

   How did Ocalan maintain authority while in jail?A  Who did he rely on
   principally to carry out his orders?A  Are there examples in the past of
   other PKK leaders competing for his authority?A  How was that dealt with
   in the past?

   A 

   What are the main divisive issues that we see impacting the PKK?A A  Is it
   possible to identify the developing factions within the group? What does
   each faction stand for? Who do they look to for leadership?

   A 

   Is there a noticeable split in the group, for example, on whether PKK
   should negotiate with the government or stick largely to a militant
   campaign?A  Are there serious tensions between PKK and BDP?A  Between PKK
   and KRG?A 

   A 

   When did those splits start arising?A  What is exacerbating such splits?A 
   Examine the geopolitical climate a**A  AKPa**s renewed political mandate
   a** less of a need to cater to a Kurdish vote a** more of a need to reach
   an accommodation with the military; KRG under pressure from Iraq
   withdrawal a** needing to cooperate with both Turkey and Iran;A  Iranian
   offensive on PJAKA  Syrian unrest fueling Kurdish protests, etc.

   A 

   Take a look at the major attacks wea**ve seen recently. Were there any
   noticeable signs of tensions among the PKK leadership over those attacks?
   Contradictory statements?A  (always keep in mind that playing up splits in
   the group can also be a method of gaining plausible deniability in
   negotiations; however, if you go too far and your leadership is not taken
   seriously anymore, you lose clout in negotiations anyway.A  What's the
   reality here?A  Is Ocalan playing a double game or is he really losing his
   grip over the organization? that is the key question)

   A 

   Once you develop some background, then youa**re ready to talk to your
   sources.

   A 

   Before talking to any source, always always always be honest with yourself
   in internalizing the agenda of the source.A  The sources know who you work
   for, so dona**t kid yourself. Your goal is to get them to reveal things
   that they otherwise are not going to put in a press release.

   A 

   PKK sources will be expected to vehemently deny any splits, especially
   when theya**re under a lot of pressure as they are now.

   A 

   Turkish sources will be expected to portray the PKK as weak, fracturing
   and unreliable as negotiating partners.

   A 

   You already know that going into this. So, how do you get the answers you
   want?

   A 

   If youa**re talking to PKK. You start out with sympathizing, not with
   demanding information immediately.. Theya**re under a ton of pressure
   right now. Display your knowledge of the situation, express your
   solidaritywith their cause.A  Act annoyed by all the rumors that are
   circulating a** how KRG is coordinating with Iran against PJAK, how the
   Turks keep saying Ocalan cana**t even speak for the movement anymore.
   Dona**t put yourself in a position where the source is immediately going
   to respond with defiance.A  First take their position, then probe for
   deeper answers.A  Once you get that conversation going, talk about how PKK
   is very unique for maintaining cohesion while its leader has been isolated
   from the group in prison. That in and of itself is a remarkable feat.A 
   But then start talking about how this is difficult to maintain for any
   leader. There are a lot of pressures on the group right now (refer to the
   background above.) Who then and and does Ocalan rely on to carry out
   orders?A  How exactly are those orders delegated? Refer to specific
   attacks recently.A  Are those examples of attacks ordered by Ocalan?A  If
   they sayA  no, then you have an opening to dig deeper into the problem of
   attacks being carried out without the leadera**s discretion. If they say
   yes, then ask specifically how he is able to issue such orders and then
   how is that impacting the negotiations with the govt? bring up the fact
   that the AKP is past the elections now, doesna**t need to care as much
   about the Kurdish vote now and is a lot more worried about reaching an
   understanding with the military. Knowing this, how does PKK intend to
   respond to these pressures? And when we say PKK can we really refer to the
   group asaA  single cohesive unit? Or are there different opinions as to
   what needs to be done?A 

   A 

   Key thing is, you never want to take a stance that causes the source to
   feel threatened or act defensive. You need to identify with the source,
   internalize his agenda, keep your guard up mentally, but physically and
   emotionally show that you understand where hea**s coming from and then
   search for those small hints of tension to pick at in the discussion, all
   while maintaining respect.

   A 

   If youa**re talking to a Turkish source on this issue, you want to seek
   out someone who is very close to this issue a** not someone at the
   official level who is simply reading policy briefs.A  Who understands the
   internal dynamics of PKK on the Turkish side?A  Express your admiration
   and respect for their work, how important it is for Turkey to rely on
   people like him to develop an accurate picture of PKK.A  With all the
   tensions going on between the govt and the military, the one issue all
   turks can really agree on is the need for the military to get better at
   counterinsurgency. To do that, Turkey needs solid, accurate analysis on
   what is happening internally with PKK. Once you give the source the
   impression that you respect his information for those reasons, hea**ll
   feel more obliged to NOT feed you BS. Express your irritation at those
   Turkish officials/analysts/etc. who throw blanket statements on PKK,
   portraying thegroup as weak and totally fractured. Obv thata**s not the
   case or else Turkey wouldna**t be having this problem with the PKK and
   wouldna**ta** be calling for military reforms to improve in
   counterinsurgency.A  Express your Turkish nationalism here, how Turkey
   needs to resolve its Kurdish problem but that the first step toward doing
   that is to get an accurate read of PKKa**s internal structure and
   stresses.A  Talk about how PKK has stood out from most militant groups for
   its cohesion, how Ocalan has been able to maintainauthority for a long
   time despite his isolation. What frustrates Turkey most about negotiations
   with PKK/Ocalan?A  (feed of their replies here.A  If they claim that
   Ocalan cana**t deliver results, then ask, who can?A  And is the govt
   talking to them? )A  ask how they would describe the splits within the PKK
   and what each faction stands for. Who does Turkey believe it can negotiate
   with more effectively?A  At what point did they notice meaningful splits
   emerging in the movement? What do they attribute those splits to?A 

   Is Turkey getting any intel cooperation from the KRG on PKK?

   Now that the elections are over with, what is the developing AKP strategy
   in dealing with PKK? How does the govt intend to use the PKK issue to try
   and settle tensions with the military?A 

   A 

   Youa**ll need to feed off the replies you get in developing further
   questions.A  Same thing as before a** dona**t ever make your source feel
   hostile or stupid.A  After some time, you can express some skepticism and
   politely call BS on what they say, but do so with tact.A  Your goal should
   always be to encourage them to talk, to get them to start venting, talk to
   them in a more relaxed atmosphere if possible. Youa**re not conducting an
   interview for a newspaper article and youa**re not quoting them in the
   paper. What you need to make clear to them is that your agenda is simple
   a** to learn whata**s really happening here, and using their expertise to
   develop a deeper understanding of this issue.

   A 

   When you collect the information, then we can examine this in-house and
   check for bias and see where we can develop an analytical framework for
   the current situation.A  I want your insight emails to read more like
   lengthy conversations, not news clippings. A Youa**re not calling and
   demanding quick answers. Youa**re engaging someone in a conversation and
   need to do the necessary preparation before talking to them so you make
   them feel comfortable in sharing information with you.

   A 

   This is a start. We can expand on this and I can answer more questions.
   But this is how I would tackle this issue.

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-08-08 15:08:30</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-09 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1446311_-fwd-re-guidance-questions-on-pkk-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>yerevan.saeed@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1457112</id>
    <title>Re: Dealing with the Turks
</title>
    <description>   ok, let us know how you want to use the lever of our charging them with
   falsifying what we said. is that something you prefer to handle directly?
   On Sep 1, 2010, at 10:45 AM, George Friedman wrote:

     Ok. There are others we can approach for this. But I want to smooth the
     relation with zaman and use the lever of our charging them with
     falsifying what we said. I want to explore a counter at the heart of our
     critics.

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Reva Bhalla &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2010 10:43:19 -0500 (CDT)
     To: &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;
     Cc: Emre Dogru&lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;; Kamran
     Bokhari&lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;; Reva Bhalla&lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;; George
     Friedman&lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;; Meredith
     Friedman&lt;mfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: Dealing with the Turks
     Bulent Kenes is in charge of Today's Zaman - English language. Ali Aslan
     is in charge of Zaman - Turkish language.  Both are Zaman.
     On Sep 1, 2010, at 10:42 AM, George Friedman wrote:

       Hold on. Who is ali and who is bulent. So far I only authorized
       contact with zaman.

       Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Reva Bhalla &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
       Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2010 10:40:15 -0500
       To: &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;
       Cc: Emre Dogru&lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;; Kamran
       Bokhari&lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;; Reva Bhalla&lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;;
       George Friedman&lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;; Meredith
       Friedman&lt;mfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
       Subject: Re: Dealing with the Turks
       that's good. will add that to the email response.
       if Bulent is saying no, Ali will probably say no as well. im still
       waiting for his response.
       Emre, Ali wanted to know which of his contacts we met with in Turkey,
       so it doesn't surprise me that he and Bulent are coordinating and
       exchanging emails on this.  Ali was also trying to get us to issue a
       retraction.
       On Sep 1, 2010, at 10:37 AM, George Friedman wrote:

         Further thoughts.

         Turkey has no better or influential friend than stratfor in the
         united states. We are not seeking a breach with the movement but
         will defend ourselves. We can do it in a dialog form if he wishes.

         I would say something like that.

         Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: "George Friedman" &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;
         Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2010 15:34:55 +0000
         To: Emre Dogru&lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
         ReplyTo: friedman@att.blackberry.net
         Cc: Reva Bhalla&lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;; Kamran
         Bokhari&lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;; Reva Bhalla&lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;;
         George Friedman&lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;; Meredith
         Friedman&lt;mfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
         Subject: Re: Dealing with the Turks
         Remember that we have credibility in turkey. Would it help if I
         spoke to him?

         Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: Emre Dogru &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
         Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2010 10:31:54 -0500 (CDT)
         To: &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;
         Cc: Reva Bhalla&lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;; Kamran
         Bokhari&lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;; Reva Bhalla&lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;;
         George Friedman&lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;; Meredith
         Friedman&lt;mfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
         Subject: Re: Dealing with the Turks
         I was on the phone with Bulent Kenes, editor-in-chief of Today's
         Zaman, for quite a while. I explained him the situation and your
         purpose. Briefly, he said they will not publish a letter or article
         that you would write. He suggests us to write another article and
         correct mistakes that we did, send it to all our clients and "all
         concerned". They will greatly cite that in their newspaper if we do
         this. He says he frankly thinks that they deserve an apology due to
         the "negative taste" of the report. None of the things that they
         told us in our meeting was included in the report.

         Between the lines, I told him that we never defined Gulen movement
         as fundamental violent organization. He said it was Abdulhamit's
         piece and not his.

         He was pretty nice and talkative, just tried to convince me. My
         personal opinion is that trying to reach out to them shows our
         willingness to maintain dialogue and we're fine like this. Btw Reva,
         Ali Aslan told (or forwarded) the things that you wrote him to
         Bulent and Abdulhamit. Especially the parts that you got information
         from them during our meeting.

         George Friedman wrote:

           Yes. I want to at least have it on record that we tried to have
           dialogue. Use my name and no one elses. I want to write a piece.
           Make it clear I am not angry. Just misunderstood.

           Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: Emre Dogru &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
           Date: Wed, 01 Sep 2010 17:48:27 +0300
           To: &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;
           Cc: Reva Bhalla&lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;; Kamran
           Bokhari&lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;; Reva Bhalla&lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;;
           George Friedman&lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;; Meredith
           Friedman&lt;mfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
           Subject: Re: Dealing with the Turks
           Sabah would not want to take side by us against Zaman. They would
           prefer not to get involved in this. They are close to the
           government and government is close to Gulen movement. They don't
           want media quarrel.

           Btw, not sure if I included in the quick translation but
           Abdulhamit says we said Sabah was an Islamist newspaper.

           I can contact zaman or even Abdulhamit if you'd like.

           George Friedman wrote:

             We don't want a neutral forum. We would like the most rabid
             gulenist forum. If they will give it to us. Emre, how do you
             feel about contacting zaman and saying I would like to explain
             stratfor's position there.

             Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: Reva Bhalla &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
             Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2010 09:43:18 -0500
             To: Emre Dogru&lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
             Cc: &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;; Kamran
             Bokhari&lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;; Reva Bhalla&lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;;
             George Friedman&lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;; Meredith
             Friedman&lt;mfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
             Subject: Re: Dealing with the Turks
             wouldn't Sabah be a more neutral forum?
             On Sep 1, 2010, at 9:41 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

               I don't know if they would publish one in the Turkish Zaman.
               Today's Zaman is more liberal than the Turkish one, it could
               publish your letter. But I think it would be good idea to ask
               them before you write it.

               You are right, Hurriyet is not a good idea. We can easily
               become a tool in their fight.

               George Friedman wrote:

                 Emre, would they publish one? If they did I would want a
                 week for all the nuts to come out. I don't want it in
                 hurriyet.
                 Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

                 From: Kamran Bokhari &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
                 Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2010 09:35:28 -0500 (CDT)
                 To: Reva Bhalla&lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
                 Cc: Emre
                 Dogru&lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;; &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;;
                 George Friedman&lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;; Meredith
                 Friedman&lt;mfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
                 Subject: Re: Dealing with the Turks
                 I think George should write an op-ed and publish it in
                 Zaman. 

                 On 9/1/2010 10:32 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

                   We never once described Gulen as 'violent' or 'radical' or
                   anything close to that.
                   Would we be able to do a rebuttal in Sabah?  or would that
                   be a bad idea?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

                   From: "Emre Dogru" &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
                   To: "Kamran Bokhari" &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
                   Cc: "Reva
                   Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;, friedman@att.blackberry.net,
                   "George Friedman"&lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;, "Meredith
                   Friedman" &lt;mfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
                   Sent: Wednesday, September 1, 2010 9:29:48 AM
                   Subject: Re: Dealing with the Turks

                   Here is what Abdulhamit Bilici says (btw, he was present
                   in the break-room before George gave lecture in Istanbul
                   conference hall, the short, bald guy)

                   Title: Strategic Scratch/defamation

                   An American researcher, Reva Bhalla, came to visit us few
                   weeks ago. Asked many questions about Gulenist schools,
                   referendum etc. We answered her questions and suggested
                   her to meet with opponents as well to see broader picture.
                   When I received the report, I noticed even though we've
                   told that the real struggle is between those who are eager
                   to maintain the statusquo and those who want change, they
                   built the entire report on Islamist - Secularist debate.
                   (He gives here names of Turkish intellectuals from
                   different nationalities and religions and says that if it
                   would be true, these people would be Islamist as well)

                   There are many faults when it comes to its objectivity. It
                   includes "violent radical Islamist" to define Gulen
                   movement as extreme opponents use. Report says Gulen
                   supports dialogue between religions abroad, and promotes
                   Islam at home. Isn't it interesting that it doesn't say
                   anything that could be in favor of Gulen in the West. No
                   mention about Gulen's meetings with Pope.

                   The report could mention "Abant Platform" (a conference
                   that Gulen movement organizes and gathers many people from
                   a wide specturm) to show that we make different people
                   come together. The report didn't say that Gulen said he
                   hates Bin Laden, (published on Zaman) because it could
                   show Gulen positive?

                   There are many errors; Turkish schools were shut down in
                   n. Iraq, Gulen praised new Turkish intel chief Fidan, a
                   Bank changed its name. Many many lies and allegations
                   without evidence.

                   Stratfor, which drew attention by showing Turkey as a
                   leader country in the future and founded by G Friedman,
                   needs to think what to do with all these lies..

                   Kamran Bokhari wrote:

                     Btw, Hurriyet putting your name on the shorter piece
                     could just be an error or something they just did as per
                     their SOP. A few years ago, the Pakistani daily, The
                     News, published one of our regular analyses with my
                     byline and even slapped a picture of me on it. It's
                     never happened again because whenever I share any of our
                     material with anyone I put the following disclaimer up
                     on top and in bold:

                     Please do not republish without permission. STRATFOR
                     reports in general are the product of a collaborative
                     effort on the part of our analytical group and not the
                     work of a single analyst. Therefore, should you need to
                     quote from this or any of our other analyses that do not
                     carry a byline, please refer to it as *STRATFOR says...*
                     Thank you.
                     On 9/1/2010 9:42 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

                       Bulent Kenes, editor in chief of Today's Zaman also
                       criticized the piece before it was published by
                       Hurriyet. I asked him what facts does he disagree with
                       and how he would portray the current situation. He did
                       not respond, because he simply did not have anything
                       to say against the facts.

                       Reva Bhalla wrote:

                         Falsifying what facts?  Not a single one of these
                         guys has produced any evidence to the contrary. Now
                         they're all hell bent on making us look like an
                         Israeli agent just because we are the only ones who
                         have discussed the Gulen in detail.
                         I'm going to send out a draft email that I've been
                         composing to respond to emails like this so we can
                         all be on the same page and deliver the same, firm
                         response. These guys really think they can dictate
                         everything we write.
                         On Sep 1, 2010, at 8:30 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

                           One of my Turkish contacts in the U.S., a Gulenist
                           sent me the following note this morning:

                           Salam; 

                           It seems that you're not preparing reports on
                           Turkey at Stratfor's anymore. It's unbelievable
                           that the report prepared by Reva Bhalla is
                           published by Stratfor despite you. There is
                           nothing to be gained from falsifying the facts. If
                           Stratfor is an institution like WINEP, this is
                           understandable. You have responsibility toward
                           your clients to portray a picture of a country
                           close to the facts. It seems that Reva Bhalla's
                           report is not prepared by this sense of
                           responsibility. 

                           What is strange is that he doesn't know Reva.
                           Also, he has seen many of our previous reports
                           Turkey but never once complained. I guess he
                           wasn't expecting one on the Gulen movement. 
                           On 9/1/2010 9:22 AM, George Friedman wrote:

                             I'm sorry hurriyet published your name but
                             stratfor publishes what it thinks is correct.
                             There is no flexibility on our part on this.
                             Once we start to bend very far on this, we are
                             finished. I will be having more substantial
                             pressure I'm sure. So be it.
                             Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

                             From: Emre Dogru &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
                             Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2010 04:19:44 -0500 (CDT)
                             To: Reva Bhalla&lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
                             Cc: George Friedman&lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;;
                             Kamran Bokhari&lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;; Meredith
                             Friedman&lt;mfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
                             Subject: Re: Dealing with the Turks
                             I will add my thoughts here. But before that, I
                             need to inform you that our Hurriyet Daily News
                             partners re-published our article on AKP -
                             Gulenist split
                             (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=turkey-an-emerging-akp-gulenist-split-2010-08-31),
                             by referring my name and role at Stratfor. This
                             could further complicate the things that Reva
                             laid out below. For your information, I always
                             forward our articles on Turkey to our partners
                             and some people that I know. HDN did not inform
                             me that they would re-publish our article and
                             mention my name. Please let me know what we are
                             supposed to do now.

                             Apart from this, Gulenists got over-concerned
                             following our special report given their already
                             tarnishing image in the US. We've been closely
                             following AKP's efforts to reverse this
                             situation. However, we are an American company
                             and we wrote in detail on how Gulen community
                             works and their relationship to the AKP. They
                             don't have anything to say against the facts
                             that we included, because we wrote the truth.
                             But as Reva says, the mere fact that we wrote
                             about them and how they work disturbed them
                             intensely.

                             They won't be happy unless we take their side.
                             So, I don't think that we need to work to make
                             them happy. They are extremely skeptical to us
                             because we are American, and I'm sure they
                             wonder if there is an American plan in the works
                             against Gulen and AKP and if we are a part of
                             it. I think what we need to do is to convince
                             them that there is no such a thing and we write
                             what we know, without taking side by anyone.
                             This could help us to maintain our
                             relationships. Guidance would be much
                             appreciated, especially given HDN re-published
                             our article.

                             Thanks,
                             Emre

                             Reva Bhalla wrote:

                               Just want to keep everyone informed on the
                               feedback we're getting from the Gulenists on
                               the power struggle report since they are
                               becoming a bit of an issue and since G is
                               going to be in Turkey soon. 

                               So far, feedback from the secularists,
                               military and moderate AKP types has been good.
                               The more extreme Gulenists (for example, the
                               editor of Today's Zaman and the US head of
                               Tuskon business group) are not happy with us.
                               It's quite clear that they were lovey dovey
                               with Emre and I in Turkey  because they
                               intended for us to write out their propaganda
                               and describe Gulen solely as a 'peace-loving,
                               democratic and pro-reform human rights
                               organization.'  The Gulenists are also on the
                               defensive right now with the release of a new
                               book in Turkey by a former police chief that
                               details their infiltration into police
                               intelligence.  They are being extremely
                               defensive about any Islamist connotation
                               attached to them, and are flat out denying
                               their infiltration of any of the security
                               agencies. 

                               We had credible sourcing for this report,
                               including a former Gulenist who walked me
                               through the recruitment process. Since this
                               stuff isn't discussed in English language,
                               they are naturally uncomfortable with it being
                               published.  None of the Gulenists who are
                               criticizing the report have presented
                               counter-evidence to anything we've said yet
                               and are sticking mainly to polemic arguments.
                               Notably, the Today's Zaman counterargument
                               that was published was quite tame. 

                               Now, these guys are difficult to deal with,
                               but it's important for them to realize they
                               need us just as it is important for us to keep
                               open a channel with Gulen to keep information
                               coming.  I've been trying to work out some
                               sort of damage control plan to make clear to
                               them that Stratfor is not interested in taking
                               sides in this power struggle, is an
                               influential player in the US-Turkey
                               relationship and how it behooves both sides to
                               continue working with each other.  George, do
                               you have any guidance on how to handle this so
                               we can maintain these relationships?  The
                               Gulenists can get really nasty if you get on
                               their bad side, and i want to avoid that. 

                               Thanks, 
                               R 

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-09-01 17:47:15</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-03 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1457112_re-dealing-with-the-turks-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1458921</id>
    <title>RE: Follow Up from teleconference last week
</title>
    <description>   Holly,

    

   I guess I don't understand the IRS and GAAP concerns.  It seems to me that
   we are going to have to account for these expenses in any event, so I
   don't how GAAP is relevant, and I would think that this structure makes us
   more, not less, susceptible to an IRS attack.  Let's discuss early next
   week.

    

   Best,

    

   Steve

    

    

    

                              CIRCULAR 230 NOTICE

   In accordance with Treasury Regulations, please note that any tax advice
   given herein (and in any attachments) is not intended or written to be
   used, and cannot be used by any taxpayer, for the purpose of (i) avoiding
   tax penalties or (ii) promoting, marketing or recommending to another
   party any transaction or matter addressed herein.

    

                             

   This e-mail and any attachments may contain confidential information
   belonging to the sender which is legally privileged. The information is
   intended only for the use of the individual or entity named above. If you
   are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or the taking of any action regarding
   the contents of this e-mailed information is strictly prohibited. If you
   have received this transmission in error, please immediately notify us by
   return e-mail, then delete the original message.

    

   From: Holly Sparkman [mailto:hsparkman@roriesparkman.com]
   Sent: Friday, June 10, 2011 1:39 PM
   To: Feldhaus, Stephen
   Cc: 'Don Kuykendall'; 'Rob Bassetti'; 'Dan Rorie'
   Subject: RE: Follow Up from teleconference last week

    

   If the entity is wholly owned by Stratfor, it will get pulled into GAAP
   and IRS audits which is what we are trying to avoid.  Let's discuss
   further when we speak next.  Using Philmont may be an option.

    

   Agreed on the bigger concern.

    

   Holly Sparkman

   Rorie Sparkman &amp; Associates LLC

   512-600-3212 t

   512-350-4736 m

   www.roriesparkman.com

    

   The information contained in this e-mail is confidential and may contain
   privileged, proprietary, or otherwise private information.  If received in
   error, please destroy and notify sender.  Sender does not waive
   confidentiality or privilege, and use is prohibited.

    

    

   From: Feldhaus, Stephen [mailto:sf@feldhauslaw.com]
   Sent: Friday, June 10, 2011 12:35 PM
   To: Holly Sparkman
   Cc: 'Don Kuykendall'; 'Rob Bassetti'; 'Dan Rorie'
   Subject: RE: Follow Up from teleconference last week

    

   Holly,

    

   More on the other items later, as I am tied up until after 3:30 or so
   today, and then only free until 4:00, but I wanted to reply about NEWCO. 
   My strong advice would be to try to form a disregarded entity wholly owned
   by Stratfor to make the payments.  We are doing that now with Philmont in
   the Bahamas for overseas payments.  We could even use Philmont for that
   matter.

    

   A bigger concern is to ensure that the recipients are in fact independent
   contractors and not employees, and also that we have a mechanism to ensure
   that we can show that these are not prohibited payments, for example,
   prohibited by the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.

    

   Best,

    

   Steve

    

    

    

    

                              CIRCULAR 230 NOTICE

   In accordance with Treasury Regulations, please note that any tax advice
   given herein (and in any attachments) is not intended or written to be
   used, and cannot be used by any taxpayer, for the purpose of (i) avoiding
   tax penalties or (ii) promoting, marketing or recommending to another
   party any transaction or matter addressed herein.

    

                             

   This e-mail and any attachments may contain confidential information
   belonging to the sender which is legally privileged. The information is
   intended only for the use of the individual or entity named above. If you
   are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or the taking of any action regarding
   the contents of this e-mailed information is strictly prohibited. If you
   have received this transmission in error, please immediately notify us by
   return e-mail, then delete the original message.

    

   From: Holly Sparkman [mailto:hsparkman@roriesparkman.com]
   Sent: Friday, June 10, 2011 12:34 PM
   To: Feldhaus, Stephen
   Cc: 'Don Kuykendall'; 'Rob Bassetti'; 'Dan Rorie'
   Subject: RE: Follow Up from teleconference last week

    

   Dear Steve:

    

   I thought I sent this email on Tuesday, but I'm not sure I ever hit the
   send button.

    

   Have you had the opportunity get on Robert Philpott's schedule for next
   week for a conference call with Dan Rorie to follow up on tax
   structure/issues (item 5 below)?  I think we discussed June 15, 16 or
   17th.  Dan and I are scheduled to meet Monday to prepare an agenda list.

    

   Also, please see attached write up per item 9 below for your review.  I
   believe Don and Rob have spoken to Meredith who is supportive of the
   concept. Realistically, the Newco could be owned by anyone (Don or George)
   who is a minority shareholder of the Inc or LLC to avoid common ownership
   for purposes of GAAP audit.  Dan mentioned, too that there was a Nevada
   corporation that was set up years ago for this purpose (Universal
   Analytics), however, by search on the Nevada Secretary of State site, that
   corporation has been dissolved.  Once the approved, we are happy to do the
   legwork internally since I know you have a lot on your plate right now.

    

   Please let us know if you have any questions or need assistance with
   meeting any of the proposed due dates below.

    

   Sincerely,

   Holly

    

   Holly Sparkman

   512-350-4736

    

   From: Holly Sparkman [mailto:hsparkman@roriesparkman.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, June 01, 2011 2:33 PM
   To: 'Stephen Feldhaus'
   Cc: 'Don Kuykendall'; 'Rob Bassetti'; 'Dan Rorie'
   Subject: Follow Up from teleconference last week

    

   Dear Steve:

    

   Below is a list of notes from last Thursday's conference call regarding
   more immediate pending items.    I took the liberty of suggesting internal
   "due date" for tasks below.  Please let me know if you have any questions,
   require further information, or wish to suggest a different due date.

    

   1)    Steve (June 10) to request copy of Certificate of Formation and IRS
   SS-4/EIN for new Delaware LLC, provide copy to Holly/Rob

   2)      Steve (June 10)  to provide flow chart view of new proposed entity
   structure

   3)      Steve (June 10) to provide closing task list for Aug 1, 12am close

   4)      Steve (June 10) to review missing data per shareholder spreadsheet
   provided and discussed last week (and attached for your convenience), upon
   Steve's review and updates, Rob to follow up on missing data

   a.       Missing Restricted Stock Agreements: 

                                                                  i.     
   Grant Perry

                                                                ii.      Jay
   Young

   b.      Series A documentation discrepancies

                                                                  i.     
   Fred (ck/cert)

                                                                ii.      Bart
   Mongoven (agreement/cert)

                                                               iii.     
   Van/Feldhaus (dates)

   c.       83(b) elections missing copies for 5 people

   d.      Series B documentation: various

   e.      Preferred Stock, do not have copies of certificates being issued

   5)      Steve (June 3) to schedule conference call with Robert Philpott
   for week of June 13th with Dan Rorie, Don, Rob and Holly to discuss tax
   considerations for all legal entities (related to recording transaction as
   well as go forward profit allocations, etc)  Dan/Holly to prepare list of
   topics for discussion by June 10th.

   6)      Holly (June 10)  to consult with Maxwell Locke &amp; Ritter regarding
   GAAP issues for transaction recording and go-forward audit considerations

   7)      Holly/Rob (June 10) to provide outline of state jurisdiction
   issues including employees by state with broad job description and
   coordinate with Feldhaus/Philpott for new LLC registration/recommendations
   for appropriate states

   8)      Rob (June 10)  to clean up old State of Texas registrations

   9)      Holly (June 3) to provide write up for proposed new legal entity
   to handle anonymous source payment

   10)   Holly to update shareholder list to include following (done--see
   attached)

   a.       Correction for rounding error

   b.      Removal of restricted stock distinction

   c.       Change 75% voting list to 2/3 vote list

   11)   Rob/Holly (June 17) to review files for copies of old p/s tax
   returns and work with Don to restructure current tax basis for major
   shareholders (Don, George, Feldhaus, etc), note, Holly reviewed
   preliminarily with Dan Rorie, we have expectation that there was zero tax
   basis at time of 2003 LLC treated as partnership for Federal tax was
   merged/converted to C Corp.  To extent more money was put into C Corp in
   the form of equity, may be tax basis.

         12)  Rob (June 17) to handle opening new operating account with TCB
   for new legal entity once item (1) above is received, need account open
   and ready to receive funds prior to closing.

         13)  Holly/Rob (June 30) to ready new Quickbooks online account for
   new LLC for operations prior to closing.

          14)  Rob/Holly/Fernando (June 17) to provide master contracts
   schedule identifying any contract assignment issues for discussion the
   week of June 13.

    

   Thanks,

   Holly

    

   Holly Sparkman

   Rorie Sparkman &amp; Associates LLC

   1250 S. Capital of Texas Hwy

   Bldg 1, Suite 300

   Austin, TX  78746

   512-600-3212 t

   512-327-3411 f

   512-350-4736 m

   www.roriesparkman.com

    

   The information contained in this e-mail is confidential and may contain
   privileged, proprietary, or otherwise private information.  If received in
   error, please destroy and notify sender.  Sender does not waive
   confidentiality or privilege, and use is prohibited.

    

    

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</description>
    <date>2011-06-10 19:41:29</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1458921_re-follow-up-from-teleconference-last-week-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sf@feldhauslaw.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>rob.bassetti@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>hsparkman@roriesparkman.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>drorie@roriesparkman.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1459746</id>
    <title>Fwd: New action item list
</title>
    <description>   Hi Rob,

    

   Please keep on top of your deadlines below and let me know how I can
   help.  I'll plan for thorough review if needed when I return from
   vacation.

    

   Thanks,

   Holly

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Holly Sparkman" &lt;holly.sparkman@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Stephen Feldhaus" &lt;sf@feldhauslaw.com&gt;, "Don Kuykendall"
   &lt;kuykendall@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "Rob Bassetti" &lt;rob.bassetti@stratfor.com&gt;, "Dan Rorie"
   &lt;drorie@roriesparkman.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 5, 2011 9:31:20 AM
   Subject: Re: New action item list

   correction to the correction (sorry), I misunderstood.  It is recommended
   to escrow a total of $300k for prior tax obligations.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Holly Sparkman" &lt;holly.sparkman@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Stephen Feldhaus" &lt;sf@feldhauslaw.com&gt;, "Don Kuykendall"
   &lt;kuykendall@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "Rob Bassetti" &lt;rob.bassetti@stratfor.com&gt;, "Dan Rorie"
   &lt;drorie@roriesparkman.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 5, 2011 9:29:07 AM
   Subject: Re: New action item list

   correction to 1. below, per Dan and Don's discussions last week,
   recommended $150k tax escrow.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Holly Sparkman" &lt;holly.sparkman@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Stephen Feldhaus" &lt;sf@feldhauslaw.com&gt;, "Don Kuykendall"
   &lt;kuykendall@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "Rob Bassetti" &lt;rob.bassetti@stratfor.com&gt;, "Dan Rorie"
   &lt;drorie@roriesparkman.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 5, 2011 9:02:22 AM
   Subject: New action item list

   Good morning, Gentlemen:
    
   Below is an attempt at outlining the remaining action items for completion
   prior to deal close on July 31.  Please let me know if there is anything
   I've missed.  Rob and I are devoted to month-end close this week, so
   we've pushed deadlines to next week on other items we are responsible for.
    
   Holly
    
   Holly Sparkman
   512-350-4736
     
   NEW LIST:
    
   1.  Steve:  (July 8) Tax estimate resolution:  Currently estimating approx
   $127k to be escrowed for the payment of taxes.  I will recommend an
   additional 10% contigenency and recommend $140k be escrowed. 
   2.  Steve:  (July 8) 382 analysis feedback from Bobby.
   3. Steve:  (July 15) Pending approval for pursuing SS4/tax ID for Stratfor
   Enterprises LLC in order to open bank account and set up
   payroll/benefits/insurance contracts prior to deal close.  Received
   certificiate of formation for Stratfor Enterprises LLC and SM Stratfor
   Partners LLC. 
   4.  Steve:  (July 15) will need Cert of Formation for Newco #2 (to be
   distributed to Stratfor s/h) and Newco #3 (to hold interest in Stratcap)
   along with SS4/tax id #
   5. Rob:  (July 15) key man life insurance - new beneficiary form for
   George's policy
   6.  Rob:  (July 15) completion of files for closing, including client,
   vendor, and employee contracts needing assignment
   7.  Rob:  (July 15) commercial insurance transition as needed (add
   Stratfor Enterprises LLC, Newco #2 and Newco #3 to policies)
   8.  Letecia/Rob:  (July 15) paychex transition plan, health insurance and
   other benefits (401k, COBRA, other) contract transition as needed (add
   Stratfor Enterprises LLC to policies)
   9.  Steve/Rob (July 15) resolution of outstanding capital stock issues for
   Strategic Forecasting Inc.
   10.  Holly:  (July 15) follow up with Maxwell Locke &amp; Ritter on any GAAP
   issues
   11. Steve/Rob (July 15) address multi-state jurisdiction issues
   for franchise, income and sales taxes and registration as needed for
   Stratfor Enterprises LLC
   12.  Holly: (July 31) prepare new online QB for Newco transition
   13.  Steve/Holly:  (July 15) address issues related to anonymous source
   payments
    
   From: Holly Sparkman &lt;holly.sparkman@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2011 09:10:37 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Stephen Feldhaus &lt;sf@feldhauslaw.com&gt;, Don Kuykendall
   &lt;kuykendall@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Don Kuykendall &lt;kuykendall@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Fwd: Follow Up from teleconference last week

   Hi Steve:

    

   I'm hoping we can speak with Philpott tomorrow while we have him on the
   phone about item 7 below. Will Bobby have an update for us per the list
   Rob sent previously regarding employees in states outside Texas and
   related nexus issues?

    

   Also, perhaps once we finish the tax and state jurisdiction overview with
   Bobby and Dan, we can stay on the line and provide updates on the other
   items listed below.  I've provided updates in red that I'm aware of.

    

   Thank you,

   Holly

    

   Holly Sparkman

   512-350-4736

   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: Follow Up from teleconference last week                           
      Date: Wed, 1 Jun 2011 14:33:22 -0500                                    
      From: Holly Sparkman &lt;hsparkman@roriesparkman.com&gt;                      
        To: 'Stephen Feldhaus' &lt;sf@feldhauslaw.com&gt;                           
        CC: 'Don Kuykendall' &lt;kuykendall@stratfor.com&gt;, 'Rob Bassetti'        
            &lt;rob.bassetti@stratfor.com&gt;, 'Dan Rorie'                          
            &lt;drorie@roriesparkman.com&gt;                                        

   Dear Steve:

    

   Below is a list of notes from last Thursdaya**s conference call regarding
   more immediate pending items.    I took the liberty of suggesting internal
   a**due datea** for tasks below.  Please let me know if you have any
   questions, require further information, or wish to suggest a different due
   date.

    

   1)    Steve (June 10) to request copy of Certificate of Formation and IRS
   SS-4/EIN for new Delaware LLC, provide copy to Holly/Rob PENDING

   2)      Steve (June 10)  to provide flow chart view of new proposed entity
   structure RECEIVED COPY FROM DON, ON AGENDA FOR TAX DISCUSSION

   3)      Steve (June 10) to provide closing task list for Aug 1, 12am close
   PENDING

   4)      Steve (June 10) to review missing data per shareholder spreadsheet
   provided and discussed last week (and attached for your convenience), upon
   Stevea**s review and updates, Rob to follow up on missing data PENDING

   a.       Missing Restricted Stock Agreements: 

                                                                  i.     
   Grant Perry

                                                                ii.      Jay
   Young

   b.      Series A documentation discrepancies

                                                                  i.     
   Fred (ck/cert)

                                                                ii.      Bart
   Mongoven (agreement/cert)

                                                               iii.     
   Van/Feldhaus (dates)

   c.       83(b) elections missing copies for 5 people

   d.      Series B documentation: various

   e.      Preferred Stock, do not have copies of certificates being issued

   5)      Steve (June 3) to schedule conference call with Robert Philpott
   for week of June 13th with Dan Rorie, Don, Rob and Holly to discuss tax
   considerations for all legal entities (related to recording transaction as
   well as go forward profit allocations, etc)  Dan/Holly to prepare list of
   topics for discussion by June 10th. SCHEDULED, AGENDA TO GO OUT BY 3PM CST
   TODAY

   6)      Holly (June 10)  to consult with Maxwell Locke &amp; Ritter regarding
   GAAP issues for transaction recording and go-forward audit considerations
   DONE, MLR IN PROGRESS OF REVIEW, EXPECT FEEDBACK BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK

   7)      Holly/Rob (June 10) to provide outline of state jurisdiction
   issues including employees by state with broad job description and
   coordinate with Feldhaus/Philpott for new LLC registration/recommendations
   for appropriate states, ROB PROVIDED LIST, PENDING UPDATE FROM
   FELDHAUS/PHILPOTT

   8)      Rob (June 10)  to clean up old State of Texas registrations
   SUBSTANTIALLY DONE, A FEW LOOSE ENDS IN PROGRESS BY ROB

   9)      Holly (June 3) to provide write up for proposed new legal entity
   to handle anonymous source payment, HOLLY PROVIDED MEMO, NEEDS FURTHER
   DISCUSSION WITH STEVE AND ACTION

   10)   Holly to update shareholder list to include following (done--see
   attached)

   a.       Correction for rounding error

   b.      Removal of restricted stock distinction

   c.       Change 75% voting list to 2/3 vote list

   11)   Rob/Holly (June 17) to review files for copies of old p/s tax
   returns and work with Don to restructure current tax basis for major
   shareholders (Don, George, Feldhaus, etc), note, Holly reviewed
   preliminarily with Dan Rorie, we have expectation that there was zero tax
   basis at time of 2003 LLC treated as partnership for Federal tax was
   merged/converted to C Corp.  To extent more money was put into C Corp in
   the form of equity, may be tax basis. IN PROGRESS

         12)  Rob (June 17) to handle opening new operating account with TCB
   for new legal entity once item (1) above is received, need account open
   and ready to receive funds prior to closing. PENDING RECEIPT OF ITEM 1
   ABOVE

         13)  Holly/Rob (June 30) to ready new Quickbooks online account for
   new LLC for operations prior to closing. PENDING

          14)  Rob/Holly/Fernando (June 17) to provide master contracts
   schedule identifying any contract assignment issues for discussion the
   week of June 13. PENDING

    

   Thanks,

   Holly

    

   Holly Sparkman

   Rorie Sparkman &amp; Associates LLC

   1250 S. Capital of Texas Hwy

   Bldg 1, Suite 300

   Austin, TX  78746

   512-600-3212 t

   512-327-3411 f

   512-350-4736 m

   www.roriesparkman.com

    

   The information contained in this e-mail is confidential and may contain
   privileged, proprietary, or otherwise private information.  If received in
   error, please destroy and notify sender.  Sender does not waive
   confidentiality or privilege, and use is prohibited.

    

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   No virus found in this message.
   Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
   Version: 10.0.1375 / Virus Database: 1511/3673 - Release Date: 06/01/11
</description>
    <date>2011-07-11 22:29:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1459746_fwd-new-action-item-list-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>rob.bassetti@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>holly.sparkman@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1464244</id>
    <title>Re: Abraxas (Trapwire) Contract
</title>
    <description>My contact w/Gov. Perry has not gotten back to me.  

It may be best (for me?) to send the contract back to Abraxass and
diplomatically check on the status of any referral fees owed?

I know it took months and maybe up to two years to get the system
installed, funded and approved.  

On 10/27/2011 12:42 PM, Rob Bassetti wrote:
&gt;
&gt; Rob Bassetti
&gt; STRATFOR
&gt; Finance Department
&gt; 512-744-4081
&gt; bassetti@stratfor.com
&gt;
&gt;
</description>
    <date>2011-11-01 18:18:12</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1464244_re-abraxas-trapwire-contract-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>oconnor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bassetti@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1471777</id>
    <title>[OS] SYRIA - Syrian forces attempt to crush army deserters
</title>
    <description>   This article gives more details on the defected army battalions.
   Syrian forces attempt to crush army deserters
   Government troops storm city of Rastan, as growing numbers of army
   deserters pledge 'to protect peaceful protests'.
   Last Modified: 27 Sep 2011 16:39
   http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/09/2011927154827326805.html

   Syrian forces backed by tanks and helicopters stormed into the central
   town of Rastan to crush army deserters who are fighting back after months
   of mostly peaceful protests against President Bashar al-Assad, residents
   said.

   Early on Tuesday, dozens of armoured vehicles entered Rastan, a town of
   40,000 on the Orontes river north of Homs, after tanks and helicopters
   pounded it with heavy machineguns through the hours of darkness.

   "Tanks closed in on Rastan overnight and the sound of machineguns and
   explosions has been non-stop. They finally entered this morning," said a
   resident named Abu Qassem.

   Reports indicate that 20 civilians were injured in the assualt. However,
   Al Jazeera could not immediately confirm reports of injuries due to
   restrictions on reporting in Syria.

   Hundreds of soldiers who have defied orders to fire on protesters have
   formed the Khaled Bin al-Walid battalion, named after the Arab conqueror
   of Syria, in Rastan. The force, led by Captain Abdelrahman Sheikh, has
   some tanks. Colonel Riad al-Assad, the most senior military defector, is
   active in the area.
    

   Nearby in Houla, across the Orontes, thousands of villagers held an
   anti-Assad rally during which a new battalion of defectors was announced.
   Several soldiers in fatigues were seen in a YouTube video as a crowd
   chanted "Freedom".

   To cheers, an announcer was seen in the video saying: "The Syrian Free
   Army declares the formation of the Ali bin Abi Taleb Battalion in Houla,
   Homs, under the command of First Lieutenant Colonel Fayez al-Abdallah, to
   be supervised by the Khaled bin al-Walid battalion ... to protect peaceful
   protests."
   Rastan lies on the highway to Turkey near the city of Homs and is part of
   a region that has emerged as a centre of resistance to Assad's government.

   'Foreign intervention'

   Syria's foreign minister on Monday blamed "foreign intervention" for the
   country's months of violence and for causing delays in Assad's plans for
   democratic reforms.

   In a speech to the UN General Assembly, Walid Moualem sought to paint the
   Assad government as having been on the brink of wide-ranging democratic
   reforms when "foreign-inspired religious radicals and armed groups" forced
   them to put down the rebellion to hold the country together.

   "We deeply regret the surge in the activities of armed groups in Syria,
   which have not waned and instead continued to spiral," he said.

   "The presence of these groups ... is the manifestation of foreign
   intervention."

   Moualem said reforms "had to take a back seat to other priorities. Our
   overriding priority was facing the external pressures which were at times
   tantamount to blatant conspiracies."

   As Moualem addressed the world leaders in New York, the violent crackdown
   on anti-government protesters continued in Syria.

   The office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights in
   Geneva has put the number of people killed in the crackdown on the
   uprising at more than 2,700 since March 15.

 --
 Ashley Harrison
 Cell: 512.468.7123
 Email: ashley.harrison@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR
</description>
    <date>2011-09-27 21:57:03</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1471777_-os-syria-syrian-forces-attempt-to-crush-army-deserters-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>os@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ashley.harrison@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:os@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1477975</id>
    <title>[CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing possible
   cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat Anonymous can pose
   to cartels. The video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing personal
   information on cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I
   could not find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual
   being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and
   Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting flyers
   in Veracruz as part of the Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is
   speculation.

   Link: themeData
   Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
   denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed out at
   drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
   criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked individual
   addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the most recent video
   release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels in
   Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers, police,
   politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker
   group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
   consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
   mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their
   demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The potential of
   conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents a unique
   threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out at online bloggers,
   but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches
   from hackers before. 

   What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
        o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat to
   Mexican cartels.
        o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online media
        o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out at
   cartels

   While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a threat
        o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess identifiable
   information on cartel members
        o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
   cartels
        o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
   identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in the
   realm of possibilities for
               Anonymous
               o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit
   online activity (child pornography rings)

   Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the ultra-violent world
   of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result, their understanding of cartel
   activities may be limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting
   in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
   retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online assault of
   cartels.
        o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will cost
   lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are forced
   to collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are often victims of
   extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the identity of these
   individuals will not have a significant impact on cartel                  
   operations. Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero
   &amp; Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any consequences
   from this.
        o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are
   willing to go protect their operations.
           o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
           o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science community
   before, coercing computer science majors into working for them.
           o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of discovering
   hackers within Mexico.

    

   On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there are
     several issues to address and fix here.

     These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the discussion:

          o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but we
     can't gloss over that fact
          o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference between
     stealing bank records from government computers and overloading
     www.loszetas.com main page.
          o     There's no thought out process of what sort of information
     could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is kept online and
     accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
     identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops, politicians and
     businessmen who need to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
     Think about why the bloggers and media were killed in previous
     instances. Was it because they revealed operational details, because
     they acted as informants, because they exposed links with officials or
     because they somehow sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what
     kind of information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
          o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
     realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of
     damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the
     technical ability by a very small number of its members to infiltrate
     certain networks and databases and steal information. Now what kind of
     information would a cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
     internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could information be found?
     Government databases? Once we know what kind of information is
     accessible, we can also know more about the consequences of
     dissemination.
          o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace back
     attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done by people
     who may not understand the difference between an anon hacker and a
     blogger.

     On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

       wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

       -------- Original Message --------

        Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
           Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
           From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
       Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
             To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

       you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a lot
       more work

       You need to lay out:

       a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section is
       unclear
       b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and therefore
       their vulnerabilities and capabilities
       c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
       d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone who
       breaches their systems or exposes their connections

       I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable insight
       that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels of
       sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of cyber
       currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason to assume
       that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a protected
       fashion.

       Karen Hooper
       Latin America Analyst
       o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
       c: 512.750.7234
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com
       On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

       On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       Link: themeData

       Trigger

       Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers. Anonymous,
       a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed out at drug
       cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
       criminal cartels, including a video released depicting...? a person
       talking? a voice? words on a screen? exactly when?.  With the most
       recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
       criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of Mexican?
       American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who
       collude with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
       release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. The
       potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
       presents an unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly
       different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
       Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
       believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do not
       believe for a second that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

        

       In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
       day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of
       releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up front.
       Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back. Provide
       enough details so we understand who this guy is and why/how he was
       abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing revealing
       information on cartel members and operations are true, cartels will
       likely respond with violence against individuals revealed as opposing
       cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous members?. It also is likely
       that public disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will
       force the GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i
       don't understand what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten
       Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
       against Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue
       their threats against any individual using online media WC.... you
       mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here. against
       the cartels.

        

       The Battle Space

       Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate realities
       from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of the computer
       networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical boundaries. All
       personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in cyber space.  (That is
       not entirely true. They are physical people tho live in the real
       world. They have names and addresses - although most of them are
       likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power base consists of their
       technical capabilities in hacking. Any information connected to the
       Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's
       of individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population could
       be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous has done are
       DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big company with a
       website that brings in revenue, but it does not really matter if you
       don't run operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money via
       e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on the web than the
       jihadists.)

       Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base
       consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe
       themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the
       internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything and
       everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme goes,
       anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web of
       people who identify themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of serious
       IT capability. 

       The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been from
       targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

       The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
       Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to maximize
       profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar commerce. Yes.....
       but they use the internet to launder money and issue commands. We know
       that Sinaloa does that from insight. There is no reason to assume that
       Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity.  Their power base is built by
       large amounts of revenue and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like
       Los Zetas, are experienced in facing different types of threats.
       Cartels are always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel
       violence. While battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law
       Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in the
       flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted media outlets.
       Murdering journalists and online bloggers in order to cover details of
       their operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this
       discussion. You need to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of the
       cartels. Don't just assume they have no cyber presence.

        

       Anonymous' Weapons

       Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
       criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to combat
       cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating sensitive
       information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel statements via
       social media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean so far and that
       we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to cartels, they
       cannot fight with guns.  The significance of a targeted information
       operations campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
       overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream
       media outlets and social media blogs as such a threat to their
       operations, that they have continued to target journalists and
       bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was placed with a
       dead female body  more relevantly, on the body of a blogger. The
       message threatened any users who denounce cartels on blogging
       websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not really addressing the
       subheading

       As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks
       disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest Anonymous is
       capable of possessing information they threaten to release. By
       releasing identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican cartels,
       Anonymous threatens the life of those individuals. Anonymous's ability
       to disseminate sensitive information is limited by what is available
       via the Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
       should always be considered a possibility of an attack. However, as
       with the compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer
       networks, information available to Mexico's intelligence collection
       may not be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This
       isn't clear at all

        

       Cartel's Defense

                   A counter response to the video? by the cartels has yet to
       see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped member by Los
       Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by
       hackers so... how has there not been a counter response? also this
       undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is soley internet
       based, and underlines the vulnerabilities of associated members. How
       did they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well
       give you some indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
       Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the
       cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed for
       them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies dedicated to
       fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good intel
       indicating that) they are working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers
       threatening cartels, can operate in any region of the world. Personal
       information including locations is only available if a hacker chooses
       to divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
       figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous. Cartels are only
       capable of dealing with their online enemy, if they can physically
       reach out to them. Or start employing hackers of their own under their
       payroll? Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                   Cartels have been known to coerce the services of Mexican
       citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help of computer
       science majors through personal threats has been reported in the past
       where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels operate in the
       world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they will likely need
       the assistance of technical experts to help combat any threat by
       computer hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has
       been demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying
       any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies
       such as the FBi, with far more technical experience and resources than
       cartels, struggle to find hackers through investigations. A) How do
       you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???)
       B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult to
       track down

                   In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
       likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute
       force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within
       Mexico "still"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals
       with alleged connections to hacker communities will likely be targeted
       and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and public display
       of violence will likely continue to be used to scare online media into
       submission i'm not really seeing the online media-international
       hacking group connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
       inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely encountered
       before in their life. Whether the fear of cartel violence softens the
       confidence of Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels are able
       to seek out and capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos
       could call the collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off any
       inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 16:32:57</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1477975_-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tristan.reed@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1478111</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of these
   in the US?
    What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
   I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
   whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
   because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
   revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of understanding
   of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is expendable to
   cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of coercion.

   Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
   cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of el
   chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication as a
   tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable intelligence,
   the government will use it against the cartels. That's a physical threat,
   if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify that Anonymous can
   not directly effect physical security. Any impact to the cartel in
   revealing information will be from actions of rival cartels or the GoM.
   They may release information on a given politician being linked to the
   cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the politician will feel an impact
   (Just because Anonymous says there is a link, doesn't make it true). It
   would be up to others to take action.

   Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online activity
   (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to conduct significant
   logistics and business online. We don't know how much, but we do know they
   will have some points of operational vulnerability I have heard of cartels
   doing business online, but don't have specific examples which could be
   used in assessing their vulnerability online.

   by "no consequences" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired, arrested
   or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I should say,
   there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out politicians as
   colluding.
   On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

     Karen Hooper
     Latin America Analyst
     o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
     c: 512.750.7234
     STRATFOR
     www.stratfor.com
     On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
     Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing possible
     cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat Anonymous can pose
     to cartels. The video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing
     personal information on cartels as well as states a member had been
     kidnapped. I could not find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of
     the individual being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites
     (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an
     individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the Operation
     Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

     Link: themeData
     Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
     denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed out at
     drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
     criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked individual
     addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the most recent
     video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels
     in Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers, police,
     politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels do they
     specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of these in the
     US?
      What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
     group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
     face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
     mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their
     demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The potential of
     conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents a
     unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out at online
     bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any
     headaches from hackers before. 

     What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
          o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat to
     Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the
     head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using
     publication as a tool to force government action. If you reveal
     actionable intelligence, the government will use it against the cartels.
     That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
          o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online media
          o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out at
     cartels

     While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a threat
          o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess identifiable
     information on cartel members
          o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
     cartels
          o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
     identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in the
     realm of possibilities for
                 Anonymous
                 o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
     illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are
     known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't
     know how much, but we do know they will have some points of operational
     vulnerability

     Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the ultra-violent
     world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result, their understanding of
     cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when
     sitting in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
     retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online assault of
     cartels.
          o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will
     cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are
     forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are often
     victims of extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the
     identity of these individuals will not have a significant impact on
     cartel                   operations. Politicans have been accused of
     working with cartels (Guerrero &amp; Veracruz' governor) before, however
     there has yet to be any consequences from this. by "no consequences"
     what exactly do you mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and
     that happens all the time.
          o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are
     willing to go protect their operations.
             o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
             o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science community
     before, coercing computer science majors into working for them.
             o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
     discovering hackers within Mexico.
     need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply publishing
     tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the same camp as
     the bloggers

      

     On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

       Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there
       are several issues to address and fix here.

       These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
       discussion:

            o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but we
       can't gloss over that fact
            o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference between
       stealing bank records from government computers and overloading
       www.loszetas.com main page.
            o     There's no thought out process of what sort of information
       could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is kept online and
       accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
       identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops, politicians and
       businessmen who need to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
       Think about why the bloggers and media were killed in previous
       instances. Was it because they revealed operational details, because
       they acted as informants, because they exposed links with officials or
       because they somehow sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what
       kind of information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
            o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
       realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of
       damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the
       technical ability by a very small number of its members to infiltrate
       certain networks and databases and steal information. Now what kind of
       information would a cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
       internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could information be found?
       Government databases? Once we know what kind of information is
       accessible, we can also know more about the consequences of
       dissemination.
            o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
       back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done by
       people who may not understand the difference between an anon hacker
       and a blogger.

       On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

         wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

         -------- Original Message --------

          Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
             Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
             From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
         Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
               To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

         you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a lot
         more work

         You need to lay out:

         a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section is
         unclear
         b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
         therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
         c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
         d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone who
         breaches their systems or exposes their connections

         I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
         insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels
         of sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of
         cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason to
         assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
         protected fashion.

         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
         c: 512.750.7234
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

         On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

         Link: themeData

         Trigger

         Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
         Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed out
         at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
         Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released depicting...?
         a person talking? a voice? words on a screen? exactly when?.  With
         the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
         the criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of
         Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
         journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker group
         demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
         consequences. The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal
         cartels and hackers, presents an unprecedented war front for the
         cartels. The vastly different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas
         leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have little
         experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no experience
         with the cartels. I do not believe for a second that the cartels
         have no experience with hackers.

          

         In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
         day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of
         releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up
         front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back.
         Provide enough details so we understand who this guy is and why/how
         he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing
         revealing information on cartel members and operations are true,
         cartels will likely respond with violence against individuals
         revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous
         members?. It also is likely that public disclosure of GOM officials
         who collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving the
         Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this means. You
         mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel
         will be able to retaliate against Anonymous remains unanswered .
         However, cartels will continue their threats against any individual
         using online media WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not
         talking about bloggers here. against the cartels.

          

         The Battle Space

         Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
         realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of
         the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical
         boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in
         cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They are physical people
         tho live in the real world. They have names and addresses - although
         most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power base
         consists of their technical capabilities in hacking. Any information
         connected to the Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers.
         (Identifying the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst of
         Mexico's population could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of
         what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
         Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in revenue,
         but it does not really matter if you don't run operations on the
         web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are also far
         less dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

         Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base
         consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe
         themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the
         internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
         and everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme
         goes, anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web
         of people who identify themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of
         serious IT capability. 

         The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been from
         targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

         The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
         Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
         maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
         commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money and
         issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight. There
         is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity.
         Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue and escalating
         brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing
         different types of threats. Cartels are always suffering at the
         hands of cartel on cartel violence. While battling each other,
         cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels
         wish to avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
         have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
         bloggers in order to cover details of their operations. ok... but
         that's kind of a red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus
         on the possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume
         they have no cyber presence.

          

         Anonymous' Weapons

         Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
         criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
         combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating
         sensitive information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel
         statements via social media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean
         so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
         cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance of a
         targeted information operations campaign by technically elite
         individuals can not be overlooked should not be underestimated.
         Cartels view main stream media outlets and social media blogs as
         such a threat to their operations, that they have continued to
         target journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los
         Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the
         body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce
         cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not
         really addressing the subheading

         As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks
         disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest Anonymous
         is capable of possessing information they threaten to release. By
         releasing identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
         cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those individuals.
         Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive information is limited
         by what is available via the Internet. Government computers
         connected to the Internet should always be considered a possibility
         of an attack. However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the
         US governments computer networks, information available to Mexico's
         intelligence collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you
         trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

          

         Cartel's Defense

                     A counter response to the video? by the cartels has yet
         to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped member by
         Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed
         by hackers so... how has there not been a counter response? also
         this undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is soley
         internet based, and underlines the vulnerabilities of associated
         members. How did they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that
         could very well give you some indication to the technical ability of
         the cartels . As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
         wide web , the cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely
         are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole
         agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume
         (and we have good intel indicating that) they are working on
         disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in
         any region of the world. Personal information including locations is
         only available if a hacker chooses to divulge it or if the subject
         of the attack is savvy enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only
         work for Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
         online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
         employing hackers of their own under their payroll? Stranger things
         have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                     Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
         Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help of
         computer science majors through personal threats has been reported
         in the past where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels
         operate in the world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they
         will likely need the assistance of technical experts to help combat
         any threat by computer hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside
         of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable
         of identifying any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
         enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
         experience and resources than cartels, struggle to find hackers
         through investigations. A) How do you know they are not in Mexico?
         (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not
         all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                     In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
         likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute
         force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within
         Mexico "still"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals
         with alleged connections to hacker communities will likely be
         targeted and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and
         public display of violence will likely continue to be used to scare
         online media into submission i'm not really seeing the online
         media-international hacking group connection here.  The cruel
         manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer hackers
         have unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
         cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to
         be seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of
         the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff and
         simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 18:19:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1478111_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tristan.reed@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1478219</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   Good point. 
   In terrorist terms they are more like grassroots people than AQ core. 
   From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Reply-To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2011 13:11:05 -0500
   To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
   Somehow we have to stop referring to 'anonymous' as a monolith.  They are
   a bunch of different people that essentially get together in an
   online-form of a mob to carry out some action. I'm not sure how to do this
   in writing consistently.  But let's start with shit like 'people joining
   Anonymous chatrooms and claiming to be part of the movement' or something
   like that. 

   Comments in green below.  This is coming together nicely. 

   On 10/24/11 11:19 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of
     these in the US?
      What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
     I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
     whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
     because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
     revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of
     understanding of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is
     expendable to cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of
     coercion.

     Anonymous does not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
     cartels.  mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of el
     chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication as a
     tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable intelligence,
     the government will use it against the cartels. That's a physical
     threat, if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify that
     Anonymous can not directly effect physical security. Any impact to the
     cartel in revealing information will be from actions of rival cartels or
     the GoM. They may release information on a given politician being linked
     to the cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the politician will feel
     an impact (Just because Anonymous says there is a link, doesn't make it
     true). It would be up to others to take action.  I think the way you
     have it worded in the above sentence is good.  Follow with a sentence
     explaining the rest of it, because readers will have the same question
     Karen did.  Something like 'Rather, the threat to cartels would come in
     what information anonymous could expose that is useful to their enemies'

     Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online
     activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to conduct
     significant logistics and business online. We don't know how much, but
     we do know they will have some points of operational vulnerability I
     have heard of cartels doing business online, but don't have specific
     examples which could be used in assessing their vulnerability online.

     by "no consequences" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired,
     arrested or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I
     should say, there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out
     politicians as colluding.
     On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

       Karen Hooper
       Latin America Analyst
       o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
       c: 512.750.7234
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com
       On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
       Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
       possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
       Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by people using the
       banner of Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on
       cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
       find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being
       kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and
       Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting
       flyers ['critical of cartels'?] in Veracruz as part of the Operation
       Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation. [this is good and
       will be enough information to go with, though you'll need a quick
       explanation of what 'operation paperstorm' is.  Adding something in
       the explaining the flyers will work]

       Link: themeData
       Anonymous, a decentralized hacker collective  famous for distributed
       denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government and corporate websites,
       lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
       denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video depicting a
       masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With
       the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
       the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities
       of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who collude with
       criminal cartels do they specify whether or not these are all in
       Mexico? Are some of these in the US?
        What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
       group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
       face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
       was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
       their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
       potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
       presents a unique threat towards TCOs [If TCO= transnational criminal
       organization, it's not really unique.  Many such organizations do
       their crimes online, and have been hacked in response--like the
       nigerian princess scams. I think you should just say it's a unique
       threat to DTOs] . We know of cartels lashing out at online bloggers,
       but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches
       from hackers before. 

       What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
            o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat
       to Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to
       the head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using
       publication as a tool to force government action. If you reveal
       actionable intelligence, the government will use it against the
       cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
            o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
       media
            o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out
       at cartels

       While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
       threat, if it had access to certain types of information:

               -The threat is in the information they can expose that may be
   of use to any cartel enemies.  That could be to the government or other
   cartels or even local citizens (the last one may be a stretch, but i could
   imagine someone discrediting cartel members in the eyes of the public).

            o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims tocut possess
       identifiable information on cartel members 
            o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
       cartels [cut this part here, and make the point at the end of this
       section/paragraph]
            o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
       identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in
       the realm of possibilities for
                   Anonymous
                   o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
       illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are
       known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't
       know how much, but we do know they will have some points of
       operational vulnerability

      -They claim to have information on those that collude with cartels 
   (use the stuff you have above].  Releasing such information could hurt
   cartels' support networks, but most of these people are also easily
   replaceable. 
               -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents have
   access to, and doubt they have such information that provides any sort of
   existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 

       Most Anonymous hackers are likely far removed from the ultra-violent
       world of drug trafficking in Mexico, but it's quite possible that some
       of its members in this campaign are in Mexico and opposed to the
       violence [or something like that.  my limited understanding is there
       are still activist crusader-types in Mexico, yeah?  it seems very
       possible those with a bit of time or computer skills could have joined
       up with anonymous] . As a result, their understanding of cartel
       activities may be limited. Anonymous members in other countries may
       act with confidence when sitting in front of a computer, but this may
       blind them to any possible retribution. They may not even know the
       impact of any online assault of cartels.  [the part below and above is
       written rather normatively.  We need to take that out.  just state the
       facts]
            o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will
       cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are
       forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are often
       victims of extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the
       identity of these individuals will not have a significant impact on
       cartel                   operations. Politicans have been accused of
       working with cartels (Guerrero &amp; Veracruz' governor) before, however
       there has yet to be any consequences from this. by "no consequences"
       what exactly do you mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and
       that happens all the time.
            o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are
       willing to go protect their operations.
               o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
               o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
       community before, coercing computer science majors into working for
       them.
               o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
       discovering hackers within Mexico.
       need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply publishing
       tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the same camp as
       the bloggers  [yes, i think it needs to be clear that their damage
       will be similar to what bloggers or wikileaks can do--limited.  But
       maybe more a danger to themselves, since they are no longer
       challenging governments, but criminal organizations]

        

       On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

         Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there
         are several issues to address and fix here.

         These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
         discussion:

              o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but
         we can't gloss over that fact
              o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference
         between stealing bank records from government computers and
         overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
              o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
         information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
         kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
         talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
         politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
         going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
         killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
         operational details, because they acted as informants, because they
         exposed links with officials or because they somehow sullied the
         cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of information is damaging
         to the cartels themselves?
              o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
         realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of
         damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the
         technical ability by a very small number of its members to
         infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal information. Now
         what kind of information would a cartel keep on a network that is
         connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
         information be found? Government databases? Once we know what kind
         of information is accessible, we can also know more about the
         consequences of dissemination.
              o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
         back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done
         by people who may not understand the difference between an anon
         hacker and a blogger.

         On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

           wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

           -------- Original Message --------

            Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
               Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
               From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
           Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                 To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

           you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a
           lot more work

           You need to lay out:

           a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section
           is unclear
           b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
           therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
           c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
           d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone
           who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

           I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
           insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels
           of sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of
           cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason
           to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
           protected fashion.

           Karen Hooper
           Latin America Analyst
           o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
           c: 512.750.7234
           STRATFOR
           www.stratfor.com
           On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

           On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

           Link: themeData

           Trigger

           Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
           Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed
           out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
           Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released
           depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a screen?
           exactly when?.  With the most recent video release, Anonymous
           makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels. Threats such as
           releasing identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
           politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels.
           The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped
           member otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
           between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
           unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly different
           operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
           Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
           believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
           not believe for a second that the cartels have no experience with
           hackers.

            

           In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as
           a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of
           releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up
           front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit
           back. Provide enough details so we understand who this guy is and
           why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of
           possessing revealing information on cartel members and operations
           are true, cartels will likely respond with violence against
           individuals revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you mean
           Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public disclosure of
           GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take
           action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand
           what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
           effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against Anonymous
           remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue their threats
           against any individual using online media WC.... you mean tools?
           or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here. against the
           cartels.

            

           The Battle Space

           Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
           realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of
           the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical
           boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in
           cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They are physical people
           tho live in the real world. They have names and addresses -
           although most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power
           base consists of their technical capabilities in hacking. Any
           information connected to the Internet is vulnerable to exploits by
           hackers. (Identifying the pc's of individual cartel members in the
           midst of Mexico's population could be quite difficult.  Remember
           that most of what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if
           you are Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in
           revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't run operations
           on the web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are
           also far less dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

           Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base
           consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe
           themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the
           internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
           and everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme
           goes, anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large
           web of people who identify themselves as "anonymous" have any sort
           of serious IT capability. 

           The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been
           from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

           The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
           Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
           maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
           commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money and
           issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight. There
           is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar
           capacity.  Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue
           and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
           experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels are
           always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence. While
           battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement
           Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in the flow of
           drugs and money, cartels have targeted media outlets. Murdering
           journalists and online bloggers in order to cover details of their
           operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this
           discussion. You need to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of
           the cartels. Don't just assume they have no cyber presence.

            

           Anonymous' Weapons

           Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
           criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
           combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating
           sensitive information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel
           statements via social media and defaced websites in Mexico you
           mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their
           video to cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance
           of a targeted information operations campaign by technically elite
           individuals can not be overlooked should not be underestimated.
           Cartels view main stream media outlets and social media blogs as
           such a threat to their operations, that they have continued to
           target journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by
           Los Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on
           the body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
           denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive here,
           and it's not really addressing the subheading

           As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks
           disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest
           Anonymous is capable of possessing information they threaten to
           release. By releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
           Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
           individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
           information is limited by what is available via the Internet.
           Government computers connected to the Internet should always be
           considered a possibility of an attack. However, as with the
           compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer networks,
           information available to Mexico's intelligence collection may not
           be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This isn't
           clear at all

            

           Cartel's Defense

                       A counter response to the video? by the cartels has
           yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped
           member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the
           threat posed by hackers so... how has there not been a counter
           response? also this undermines your statements above about how
           Anonymous is soley internet based, and underlines the
           vulnerabilities of associated members. How did they find teh
           Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well give you some
           indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As Anonymous
           exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the cartels
           will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed for them
           Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies dedicated to
           fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good
           intel indicating that) they are working on disrupting the
           cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in any region
           of the world. Personal information including locations is only
           available if a hacker chooses to divulge it or if the subject of
           the attack is savvy enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only
           work for Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
           online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
           employing hackers of their own under their payroll? Stranger
           things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                       Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
           Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help
           of computer science majors through personal threats has been
           reported in the past where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since
           cartels operate in the world of urban violence and drug
           trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of technical
           experts to help combat any threat by computer hackers.  While
           identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is
           unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers operating
           outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies such as the FBi,
           with far more technical experience and resources than cartels,
           struggle to find hackers through investigations. A) How do you
           know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???)
           B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult
           to track down

                       In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
           likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute
           force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within
           Mexico "still"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?. 
           Individuals with alleged connections to hacker communities will
           likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco
           banners and public display of violence will likely continue to be
           used to scare online media into submission i'm not really seeing
           the online media-international hacking group connection here.  The
           cruel manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer
           hackers have unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether
           the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous
           will remain to be seen until cartels are able to seek out and
           capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the
           collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience
           that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
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    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1478301</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   yes, marc called them a mob - and that seems accurate

   On 10/24/11 1:33 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     Good point. 
     In terrorist terms they are more like grassroots people than AQ core. 
     From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
     Reply-To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2011 13:11:05 -0500
     To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
     Somehow we have to stop referring to 'anonymous' as a monolith.  They
     are a bunch of different people that essentially get together in an
     online-form of a mob to carry out some action. I'm not sure how to do
     this in writing consistently.  But let's start with shit like 'people
     joining Anonymous chatrooms and claiming to be part of the movement' or
     something like that. 

     Comments in green below.  This is coming together nicely. 

     On 10/24/11 11:19 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of
       these in the US?
        What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
       I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
       whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
       because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
       revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of
       understanding of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is
       expendable to cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of
       coercion.

       Anonymous does not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
       cartels.  mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of
       el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication
       as a tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable
       intelligence, the government will use it against the cartels. That's a
       physical threat, if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify
       that Anonymous can not directly effect physical security. Any impact
       to the cartel in revealing information will be from actions of rival
       cartels or the GoM. They may release information on a given politician
       being linked to the cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the
       politician will feel an impact (Just because Anonymous says there is a
       link, doesn't make it true). It would be up to others to take action. 
       I think the way you have it worded in the above sentence is good. 
       Follow with a sentence explaining the rest of it, because readers will
       have the same question Karen did.  Something like 'Rather, the threat
       to cartels would come in what information anonymous could expose that
       is useful to their enemies'

       Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online
       activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to
       conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't know how
       much, but we do know they will have some points of operational
       vulnerability I have heard of cartels doing business online, but don't
       have specific examples which could be used in assessing their
       vulnerability online.

       by "no consequences" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired,
       arrested or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I
       should say, there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out
       politicians as colluding.
       On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
         c: 512.750.7234
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
         Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
         possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
         Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by people using
         the banner of Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on
         cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
         find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual
         being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico
         and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual
         posting flyers ['critical of cartels'?] in Veracruz as part of the
         Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation. [this is
         good and will be enough information to go with, though you'll need a
         quick explanation of what 'operation paperstorm' is.  Adding
         something in the explaining the flyers will work]

         Link: themeData
         Anonymous, a decentralized hacker collective  famous for distributed
         denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government and corporate
         websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
         statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
         depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on
         October 10? With the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold
         threats towards the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as
         releasing identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
         journalists who collude with criminal cartels do they specify
         whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of these in the US?
          What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
         group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
         face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
         was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
         their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
         potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
         presents a unique threat towards TCOs [If TCO= transnational
         criminal organization, it's not really unique.  Many such
         organizations do their crimes online, and have been hacked in
         response--like the nigerian princess scams. I think you should just
         say it's a unique threat to DTOs] . We know of cartels lashing out
         at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels
         dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

         What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
              o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
         threat to Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a
         gun to the head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for
         the using publication as a tool to force government action. If you
         reveal actionable intelligence, the government will use it against
         the cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
              o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
         media
              o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out
         at cartels

         While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
         threat, if it had access to certain types of information:

                 -The threat is in the information they can expose that may
     be of use to any cartel enemies.  That could be to the government or
     other cartels or even local citizens (the last one may be a stretch, but
     i could imagine someone discrediting cartel members in the eyes of the
     public).

              o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims tocut possess
         identifiable information on cartel members 
              o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
         cartels [cut this part here, and make the point at the end of this
         section/paragraph]
              o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
         identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in
         the realm of possibilities for
                     Anonymous
                     o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
         illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels
         are known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We
         don't know how much, but we do know they will have some points of
         operational vulnerability

        -They claim to have information on those that collude with cartels 
     (use the stuff you have above].  Releasing such information could hurt
     cartels' support networks, but most of these people are also easily
     replaceable. 
                 -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents
     have access to, and doubt they have such information that provides any
     sort of existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 

         Most Anonymous hackers are likely far removed from the ultra-violent
         world of drug trafficking in Mexico, but it's quite possible that
         some of its members in this campaign are in Mexico and opposed to
         the violence [or something like that.  my limited understanding is
         there are still activist crusader-types in Mexico, yeah?  it seems
         very possible those with a bit of time or computer skills could have
         joined up with anonymous] . As a result, their understanding of
         cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous members in other
         countries may act with confidence when sitting in front of a
         computer, but this may blind them to any possible retribution. They
         may not even know the impact of any online assault of cartels.  [the
         part below and above is written rather normatively.  We need to take
         that out.  just state the facts]
              o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
         will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
         individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
         drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
         halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not have
         a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
         Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &amp;
         Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
         consequences from this. by "no consequences" what exactly do you
         mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and that happens all
         the time.
              o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
         are willing to go protect their operations.
                 o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                 o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
         community before, coercing computer science majors into working for
         them.
                 o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
         discovering hackers within Mexico.
         need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply
         publishing tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the
         same camp as the bloggers  [yes, i think it needs to be clear that
         their damage will be similar to what bloggers or wikileaks can
         do--limited.  But maybe more a danger to themselves, since they are
         no longer challenging governments, but criminal organizations]

          

         On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

           Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
           there are several issues to address and fix here.

           These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
           discussion:

                o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but
           we can't gloss over that fact
                o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference
           between stealing bank records from government computers and
           overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
           information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
           kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
           talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
           politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
           going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
           killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
           operational details, because they acted as informants, because
           they exposed links with officials or because they somehow sullied
           the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of information is
           damaging to the cartels themselves?
                o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
           realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure
           of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for
           the technical ability by a very small number of its members to
           infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal information.
           Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on a network that
           is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
           information be found? Government databases? Once we know what kind
           of information is accessible, we can also know more about the
           consequences of dissemination.
                o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
           back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings
           done by people who may not understand the difference between an
           anon hacker and a blogger.

           On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

             wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

             -------- Original Message --------

              Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                 Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                 From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
             Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                   To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

             you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a
             lot more work

             You need to lay out:

             a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section
             is unclear
             b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
             therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
             c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
             d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone
             who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

             I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
             insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
             levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
             the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
             is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
             business online, in a protected fashion.

             Karen Hooper
             Latin America Analyst
             o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
             c: 512.750.7234
             STRATFOR
             www.stratfor.com
             On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

             On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             Link: themeData

             Trigger

             Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
             Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed
             out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
             denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released
             depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a screen?
             exactly when?.  With the most recent video release, Anonymous
             makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels. Threats such as
             releasing identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
             politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels.
             The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped
             member otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
             between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
             unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly different
             operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
             Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
             believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
             not believe for a second that the cartels have no experience
             with hackers.

              

             In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned
             as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their
             demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned
             right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening
             to hit back. Provide enough details so we understand who this
             guy is and why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous'
             claims of possessing revealing information on cartel members and
             operations are true, cartels will likely respond with violence
             against individuals revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you
             mean Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public
             disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force the
             GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i
             don't understand what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten
             Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
             against Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will
             continue their threats against any individual using online media
             WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about
             bloggers here. against the cartels.

              

             The Battle Space

             Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
             realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
             of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
             geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
             exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
             are physical people tho live in the real world. They have names
             and addresses - although most of them are likely outside of MX.)
              Anonymous' power base consists of their technical capabilities
             in hacking. Any information connected to the Internet is
             vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of
             individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population
             could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
             has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big
             company with a website that brings in revenue, but it does not
             really matter if you don't run operations on the web. Los Z
             don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are also far less
             dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

             Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
             base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
             believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
             through the internet. This gives an opening for people
             disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
             dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll.
             Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
             themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of serious IT
             capability. 

             The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been
             from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

             The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
             Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
             maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
             commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
             and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight.
             There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar
             capacity.  Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue
             and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
             experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels are
             always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence.
             While battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law
             Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in
             the flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted media
             outlets. Murdering journalists and online bloggers in order to
             cover details of their operations. ok... but that's kind of a
             red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus on the
             possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
             have no cyber presence.

              

             Anonymous' Weapons

             Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
             criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
             combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
             disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
             anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites in
             Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
             admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
             guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
             campaign by technically elite individuals can not be overlooked
             should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream media
             outlets and social media blogs as such a threat to their
             operations, that they have continued to target journalists and
             bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was placed
             with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the body of a
             blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce cartels
             on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not
             really addressing the subheading

             As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
             risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest
             Anonymous is capable of possessing information they threaten to
             release. By releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
             Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
             individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
             information is limited by what is available via the Internet.
             Government computers connected to the Internet should always be
             considered a possibility of an attack. However, as with the
             compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer
             networks, information available to Mexico's intelligence
             collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to
             say here? This isn't clear at all

              

             Cartel's Defense

                         A counter response to the video? by the cartels has
             yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped
             member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the
             threat posed by hackers so... how has there not been a counter
             response? also this undermines your statements above about how
             Anonymous is soley internet based, and underlines the
             vulnerabilities of associated members. How did they find teh
             Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well give you
             some indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
             Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the
             cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed
             for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies
             dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and
             we have good intel indicating that) they are working on
             disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can
             operate in any region of the world. Personal information
             including locations is only available if a hacker chooses to
             divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
             figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous. Cartels
             are only capable of dealing with their online enemy, if they can
             physically reach out to them. Or start employing hackers of
             their own under their payroll? Stranger things have happened,
             Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                         Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
             Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
             help of computer science majors through personal threats has
             been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported where?. 
             Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence and drug
             trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of technical
             experts to help combat any threat by computer hackers.  While
             identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it
             is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
             operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies such
             as the FBi, with far more technical experience and resources
             than cartels, struggle to find hackers through investigations.
             A) How do you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they
             kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are
             equally difficult to track down

                         In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
             likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with,
             brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
             operations within Mexico "still"? why would we assume they
             wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
             communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
             members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
             likely continue to be used to scare online media into submission
             i'm not really seeing the online media-international hacking
             group connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
             inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
             encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of cartel
             violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to be
             seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of
             the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff
             and simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can
             inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 20:39:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1478301_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
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  <doc>
    <id>1478323</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   if anonymous outs taxi cab drivers working with Zeta, they are dead.  that
   is both simple and devastating.  If they release email accounts of GOM
   folks, and there are cartel members in that address book that would be
   devastating.  I think our definitions of devastating are different.  I
   agree the ability of these folks to bring down governments is minimal, but
   I am willing to bet the next deep throat scenario will come via a hacker
   and information they are able to steal. 

   On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already

     2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  The question is if the attack is high
     priority enough.  Many people assume there is no attribution because
     there is no response, but I don't think that is accurate. 
     has NSA told you otherwise?  i am unclear, are you saying the entire
     darknet is mapped, or could be mapped, only it isn't because the NSA
     doesn't care or doens't share? 
     3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new laptop and
     start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack involves much more than
     a recently bought laptop.  In the same way there is an attack cycle for
     a terrorist attack or crime, there is one for a cyber attack.  A very
     simple attack may be as hard to trace as a nearly-random mugging in the
     dark in a neighborhood with much more serious crime and no CCTV cameras.
     so simple=low damage, and complicated = more damage?  if you hacked
     Calderon's blackberry and found out who his contacts were, and one of
     them was Chapo's sister, it would be simple and devastating.  A more
     complicated attack, however, involves pre-operational surveillance,
     developing exploits, developing programs and code, gaining access,
     exploiting that, and carrying out an attack.  And that takes time,
     giving more time for your exposure. Look at everything that went into
     Stuxnet as a great example, that couldn't be done with one person with a
     new laptop.  All of this activity provides activity and evidence which
     helps for attribution.  Of course it is always possible to develop an
     attack, just like any other operation, that even the best law
     enforcement and national intelligence agencies have trouble or cannot
     attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that it's very difficult for
     someone to successfully use Anonymous as a cover and have NSA, GHQ, MID,
     Aman, etc, be unable to attribute it.  They may not choose to cover it
     if it is small scale crime, however. 
     On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored cyber
       warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing that, since
       you can conduct a cyber attack without associating with a hacker group
       and still deny / cover actions on behalf of the State. An individual
       attacking US computer assets from China, may be working by himself or
       on behalf of the Chinese government, but unless the US has other intel
       on the Chinese government's cyber warfare activities in order to
       corroborate there is little capability to distinguish.

       It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
       operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets from
       SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual responsible for
       hacking State run servers. In the past, I have turned to SIGINT
       organizations for collections on computer related material, but this
       was due to the US being behind in cyber warfare, and not knowing where
       to assign responsibility. However, this has changed dramatically in
       the last couple of years.

       Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As an
       extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go to a
       Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the online
       activity to something revealing (accessing personal email accounts,
       tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop, etc..), and
       begin hacking government email accounts then never use the laptop
       again. Unless LEA could get an accurate description of my appearance
       from Starbuck's patrons or possible security cameras, I can not think
       of way to identify me.

       Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to these
       enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied to specific
       computer-related activities because of the difficulty in identifying
       individuals.

       I think the most likely way for a "Anonymous cover" to be blown, would
       be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a common
       participant in "Anonymous" activities, was working for a State?
       Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that State agent
       organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter buddies, what signs
       could a LEA look for to distinguish?

       On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a bit)

         1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything actually
         harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't, but i'm very
         doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first real case where
         they could do some minor damage--to individual people, not not to an
         organization or anything that would come as a serious or strategic
         threat. 

         2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is actually
         pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as a cover, but
         that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could probably still be
         attributed if important enough to those agencies.  The recent attack
         on Sony actually brings this issue up- Whoever is calling themselves
         anonymous denies they did it.  And keep in mind how much they have
         claimed an publicized attacks in the past, even before they were
         carried out.  The attack on the Playstation Network was more
         sophisticated than anonymous' usual work (though potentially
         coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that distracted Sony's IT
         security).  But whoever did it, again, no real damage came of it. 
         Congress is holding hearings over data security, but this is no
         different than the OC groups stealing your credit card information. 
         LE will go after them, have some success, but the threat is not that
         large. 
         On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

           Link: themeData

           I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to have a
           broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no nothing, or
           almost nothing about what this group is and the threat it poses.
           Reviewing their list of attacks
           (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most of
           the cases, they are the "good" guys, sort of a Robin Hood of the
           internet . The interesting thing when it comes to their
           interactions with the cartels is the dubious role they play: at
           the same time they can be fighting crime by revealing cartel
           members/supporters, but they can also put lives in risk.

           However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
           Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can
           conduct a cyber attack under "Anonymous" is worrisome.
           (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

           If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
           websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to know
           more about these guys. Who they are? What are they interested in?
           How they operate? Who they have targeted so far? How can I defend
           myself from them? In what countries are they active? Should I
           worry about them at all? Can I use them to achieve any particular
           goal?

           On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

             nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else
             can build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they
             pose to innocent people caught up in the terror that is Mexico. 
             By focusing on journalists or taxi drivers they show little
             understanding of the situation.  This has long term implications
             in not just Mexico.  They don't consider the consequences of
             their actions and they act without understanding the
             environment.  It was the same when they released information on
             the Sony Playstation network to protest Sony.  They hurt
             innocent people to prove a point. 

             On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

               Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
               possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
               Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by
               Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on cartels
               as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
               find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the
               individual being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites
               (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it
               may be an individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the
               Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

               Link: themeData
               Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
               distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government
               websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
               statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a
               video depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug
               cartels on October 10? With the most recent video release,
               Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels in
               Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers,
               police, politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal
               cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow
               kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. In the
               Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
               day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands
               of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The potential of
               conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
               presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels
               lashing out at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any
               reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers
               before. 

               What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                    o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
               threat to Mexican cartels.
                    o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit
               online media
                    o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to
               lash out at cartels

               While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose
               a threat
                    o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
               identifiable information on cartel members
                    o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could
               acquire on cartels
                    o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
               communications, identifiable information on cartels members
               have to be considered in the realm of possibilities for
                           Anonymous
                           o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to
               reveal illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

               Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
               ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
               result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
               limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting in
               front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
               retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online
               assault of cartels.
                    o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
               journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some
               of these individuals are forced to collude with cartels.    
                         Taxi drivers are often victims of extortion or
               coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the identity of these
               individuals will not have a significant impact on cartel    
                             operations. Politicans have been accused of
               working with cartels (Guerrero &amp; Veracruz' governor) before,
               however there has yet to be any consequences from this.
                    o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent
               cartels are willing to go protect their operations.
                       o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                       o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
               community before, coercing computer science majors into
               working for them.
                       o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
               discovering hackers within Mexico.

                

               On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                 Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea
                 but there are several issues to address and fix here.

                 These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
                 discussion:

                      o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's
                 fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                      o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a
                 difference between stealing bank records from government
                 computers and overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                      o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
                 information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of
                 info is kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You
                 seem to be talking about identities, whose? If anything it's
                 dirty cops, politicians and businessmen who need to worry
                 about what anon is going to be saying. Think about why the
                 bloggers and media were killed in previous instances. Was it
                 because they revealed operational details, because they
                 acted as informants, because they exposed links with
                 officials or because they somehow sullied the cartel's
                 reputation? In short, what kind of information is damaging
                 to the cartels themselves?
                      o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon
                 can realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes
                 a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence
                 capacity except for the technical ability by a very small
                 number of its members to infiltrate certain networks and
                 databases and steal information. Now what kind of
                 information would a cartel keep on a network that is
                 connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else
                 could information be found? Government databases? Once we
                 know what kind of information is accessible, we can also
                 know more about the consequences of dissemination.
                      o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to
                 trace back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of
                 killings done by people who may not understand the
                 difference between an anon hacker and a blogger.

                 On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                   wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                   -------- Original Message --------

                    Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                       Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                       From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
                   Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                         To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

                   you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to
                   need a lot more work

                   You need to lay out:

                   a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger
                   section is unclear
                   b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is,
                   and therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
                   c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
                   anything
                   d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill
                   anyone who breaches their systems or exposes their
                   connections

                   I also just want to point out that we have reasonable
                   reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some
                   significant levels of sophistication in their online
                   presence, to include the use of cyber currencies and
                   significant IT capacity. There is no reason to assume that
                   Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
                   protected fashion.

                   Karen Hooper
                   Latin America Analyst
                   o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                   c: 512.750.7234
                   STRATFOR
                   www.stratfor.com
                   On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                   On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                   Link: themeData

                   Trigger

                   Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
                   Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?,
                   lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
                   statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including
                   a video released depicting...? a person talking? a voice?
                   words on a screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent
                   video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                   criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of
                   Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
                   journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker
                   group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member
                   otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
                   between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
                   unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly
                   different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a
                   conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have little
                   experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no
                   experience with the cartels. I do not believe for a second
                   that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                    

                   In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                   mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                   reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped member
                   this should be mentioned right up front. Cartels have a
                   member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back. Provide
                   enough details so we understand who this guy is and
                   why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims
                   of possessing revealing information on cartel members and
                   operations are true, cartels will likely respond with
                   violence against individuals revealed as opposing cartel
                   members huh? you mean Anonymous members?. It also is
                   likely that public disclosure of GOM officials who collude
                   with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving the
                   Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this
                   means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
                   effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against
                   Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will
                   continue their threats against any individual using online
                   media WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking
                   about bloggers here. against the cartels.

                    

                   The Battle Space

                   Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two
                   separate realities from each other. Anonymous operates
                   solely in sphere of the computer networks. Anonymous does
                   not experience geographical boundaries. All personalities
                   within Anonymous, exist solely in cyber space.  (That is
                   not entirely true. They are physical people tho live in
                   the real world. They have names and addresses - although
                   most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power
                   base consists of their technical capabilities in hacking.
                   Any information connected to the Internet is vulnerable to
                   exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of individual
                   cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population could
                   be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
                   has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or
                   a big company with a website that brings in revenue, but
                   it does not really matter if you don't run operations on
                   the web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They
                   are also far less dependent on the web than the
                   jihadists.)

                   Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's
                   power base consists of the perceived anonymity that its
                   members believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by
                   operating through the internet. This gives an opening for
                   people disgruntled by anything and everything to practice
                   general dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity +
                   audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web of
                   people who identify themselves as "anonymous" have any
                   sort of serious IT capability. 

                   The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has
                   been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

                   The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in
                   US and Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always
                   looking to maximize profits and expand. But they are
                   bricks and mortar commerce. Yes..... but they use the
                   internet to launder money and issue commands. We know that
                   Sinaloa does that from insight. There is no reason to
                   assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity. 
                   Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue and
                   escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
                   experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels
                   are always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel
                   violence. While battling each other, cartels still face
                   arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to
                   avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money,
                   cartels have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists
                   and online bloggers in order to cover details of their
                   operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this
                   discussion. You need to focus on the possible
                   vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
                   have no cyber presence.

                    

                   Anonymous' Weapons

                   Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions
                   against criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous'
                   only ability to combat cartels lay in information
                   operations, mainly disseminating sensitive information on
                   cartels and propagating anti-cartel statements via social
                   media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean so far and
                   that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
                   cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance of
                   a targeted information operations campaign by technically
                   elite individuals can not be overlooked should not be
                   underestimated. Cartels view main stream media outlets and
                   social media blogs as such a threat to their operations,
                   that they have continued to target journalists and
                   bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was
                   placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the
                   body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
                   denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive
                   here, and it's not really addressing the subheading

                   As stated earlier, any information connected to the
                   internet risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample
                   reason to suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing
                   information they threaten to release. By releasing
                   identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
                   cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
                   individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
                   information is limited by what is available via the
                   Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
                   should always be considered a possibility of an attack.
                   However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the US
                   governments computer networks, information available to
                   Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy to
                   acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This isn't
                   clear at all

                    

                   Cartel's Defense

                               A counter response to the video? by the
                   cartels has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous'
                   claims of a kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los
                   Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by hackers
                   so... how has there not been a counter response? also this
                   undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is
                   soley internet based, and underlines the vulnerabilities
                   of associated members. How did they find teh Anonymous
                   member? The answer to that could very well give you some
                   indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
                   Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web
                   , the cartels will face a number of challenges which
                   rarely are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG
                   has whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in
                   cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good intel
                   indicating that) they are working on disrupting the
                   cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in any
                   region of the world. Personal information including
                   locations is only available if a hacker chooses to divulge
                   it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
                   figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous.
                   Cartels are only capable of dealing with their online
                   enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
                   employing hackers of their own under their payroll?
                   Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                               Cartels have been known to coerce the services
                   of Mexican citizens with a technical background.
                   Recruiting the help of computer science majors through
                   personal threats has been reported in the past where? What
                   cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels operate in the
                   world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they will
                   likely need the assistance of technical experts to help
                   combat any threat by computer hackers.  While identifying
                   bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is
                   unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
                   operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies
                   such as the FBi, with far more technical experience and
                   resources than cartels, struggle to find hackers through
                   investigations. A) How do you know they are not in Mexico?
                   (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume
                   that not all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                               In order to compete with an online foe,
                   cartels will likely continue counter tactics they are most
                   familiar with, brute force. Cartels are still capable of
                   their HUMINT operations within Mexico "still"? why would
                   we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged
                   connections to hacker communities will likely be targeted
                   and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and
                   public display of violence will likely continue to be used
                   to scare online media into submission i'm not really
                   seeing the online media-international hacking group
                   connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
                   inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
                   encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
                   cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will
                   remain to be seen until cartels are able to seek out and
                   capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could
                   call the collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off
                   any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 22:29:35</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1478323_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1481918</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
</title>
    <description>   I agree. I haven't seen any defining attributes of Anonymous as a group.
   They may not even know the identities of each other. There are several
   facebook / twitter Anonymous pages, which seem to be run by different
   individuals.

   What about defining Anonymous in terms of the individual? Instead of
   saying Anonymous attacking cartels, Individuals acting under the Anonymous
   name....

   -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents have access to,
   and doubt they have such information that provides any sort of existential
   threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 
   This is a problem with the threat assessment. Technically, anything cartel
   related (emails, online transactions, Mexican LEA information, etc.) would
   be available to a hacker, but we don't know if they have had access to
   this information, or if the hackers interested in harming cartels are
   capable. It's not even confirmed hackers have revealing information on
   cartel supporters which the video claims.

   On 10/24/11 1:11 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     Somehow we have to stop referring to 'anonymous' as a monolith.  They
     are a bunch of different people that essentially get together in an
     online-form of a mob to carry out some action. I'm not sure how to do
     this in writing consistently.  But let's start with shit like 'people
     joining Anonymous chatrooms and claiming to be part of the movement' or
     something like that. 

     Comments in green below.  This is coming together nicely. 

     On 10/24/11 11:19 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of
       these in the US?
        What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
       I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
       whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
       because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
       revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of
       understanding of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is
       expendable to cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of
       coercion.

       Anonymous does not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
       cartels.  mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of
       el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication
       as a tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable
       intelligence, the government will use it against the cartels. That's a
       physical threat, if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify
       that Anonymous can not directly effect physical security. Any impact
       to the cartel in revealing information will be from actions of rival
       cartels or the GoM. They may release information on a given politician
       being linked to the cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the
       politician will feel an impact (Just because Anonymous says there is a
       link, doesn't make it true). It would be up to others to take action. 
       I think the way you have it worded in the above sentence is good. 
       Follow with a sentence explaining the rest of it, because readers will
       have the same question Karen did.  Something like 'Rather, the threat
       to cartels would come in what information anonymous could expose that
       is useful to their enemies'

       Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online
       activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to
       conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't know how
       much, but we do know they will have some points of operational
       vulnerability I have heard of cartels doing business online, but don't
       have specific examples which could be used in assessing their
       vulnerability online.

       by "no consequences" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired,
       arrested or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I
       should say, there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out
       politicians as colluding.
       On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
         c: 512.750.7234
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
         Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
         possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
         Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by people using
         the banner of Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on
         cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
         find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual
         being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico
         and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual
         posting flyers ['critical of cartels'?] in Veracruz as part of the
         Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation. [this is
         good and will be enough information to go with, though you'll need a
         quick explanation of what 'operation paperstorm' is.  Adding
         something in the explaining the flyers will work]

         Link: themeData
         Anonymous, a decentralized hacker collective  famous for distributed
         denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government and corporate
         websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
         statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
         depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on
         October 10? With the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold
         threats towards the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as
         releasing identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
         journalists who collude with criminal cartels do they specify
         whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of these in the US?
          What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
         group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
         face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
         was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
         their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
         potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
         presents a unique threat towards TCOs [If TCO= transnational
         criminal organization, it's not really unique.  Many such
         organizations do their crimes online, and have been hacked in
         response--like the nigerian princess scams. I think you should just
         say it's a unique threat to DTOs] . We know of cartels lashing out
         at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels
         dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

         What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
              o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
         threat to Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a
         gun to the head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for
         the using publication as a tool to force government action. If you
         reveal actionable intelligence, the government will use it against
         the cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
              o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
         media
              o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out
         at cartels

         While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
         threat, if it had access to certain types of information:

                 -The threat is in the information they can expose that may
     be of use to any cartel enemies.  That could be to the government or
     other cartels or even local citizens (the last one may be a stretch, but
     i could imagine someone discrediting cartel members in the eyes of the
     public).

              o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims tocut possess
         identifiable information on cartel members 
              o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
         cartels [cut this part here, and make the point at the end of this
         section/paragraph]
              o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
         identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in
         the realm of possibilities for
                     Anonymous
                     o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
         illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels
         are known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We
         don't know how much, but we do know they will have some points of
         operational vulnerability

        -They claim to have information on those that collude with cartels 
     (use the stuff you have above].  Releasing such information could hurt
     cartels' support networks, but most of these people are also easily
     replaceable. 
                 -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents
     have access to, and doubt they have such information that provides any
     sort of existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 

         Most Anonymous hackers are likely far removed from the ultra-violent
         world of drug trafficking in Mexico, but it's quite possible that
         some of its members in this campaign are in Mexico and opposed to
         the violence [or something like that.  my limited understanding is
         there are still activist crusader-types in Mexico, yeah?  it seems
         very possible those with a bit of time or computer skills could have
         joined up with anonymous] . As a result, their understanding of
         cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous members in other
         countries may act with confidence when sitting in front of a
         computer, but this may blind them to any possible retribution. They
         may not even know the impact of any online assault of cartels.  [the
         part below and above is written rather normatively.  We need to take
         that out.  just state the facts]
              o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
         will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
         individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
         drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
         halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not have
         a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
         Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &amp;
         Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
         consequences from this. by "no consequences" what exactly do you
         mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and that happens all
         the time.
              o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
         are willing to go protect their operations.
                 o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                 o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
         community before, coercing computer science majors into working for
         them.
                 o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
         discovering hackers within Mexico.
         need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply
         publishing tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the
         same camp as the bloggers  [yes, i think it needs to be clear that
         their damage will be similar to what bloggers or wikileaks can
         do--limited.  But maybe more a danger to themselves, since they are
         no longer challenging governments, but criminal organizations]

          

         On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

           Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
           there are several issues to address and fix here.

           These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
           discussion:

                o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but
           we can't gloss over that fact
                o     "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference
           between stealing bank records from government computers and
           overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
           information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
           kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
           talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
           politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
           going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
           killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
           operational details, because they acted as informants, because
           they exposed links with officials or because they somehow sullied
           the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of information is
           damaging to the cartels themselves?
                o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
           realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure
           of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for
           the technical ability by a very small number of its members to
           infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal information.
           Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on a network that
           is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
           information be found? Government databases? Once we know what kind
           of information is accessible, we can also know more about the
           consequences of dissemination.
                o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
           back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings
           done by people who may not understand the difference between an
           anon hacker and a blogger.

           On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

             wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

             -------- Original Message --------

              Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                 Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                 From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;         
             Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   
                   To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                   

             you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a
             lot more work

             You need to lay out:

             a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section
             is unclear
             b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
             therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
             c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
             d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone
             who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

             I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
             insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
             levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
             the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
             is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
             business online, in a protected fashion.

             Karen Hooper
             Latin America Analyst
             o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
             c: 512.750.7234
             STRATFOR
             www.stratfor.com
             On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

             On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             Link: themeData

             Trigger

             Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
             Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed
             out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
             denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released
             depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a screen?
             exactly when?.  With the most recent video release, Anonymous
             makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels. Threats such as
             releasing identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
             politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels.
             The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped
             member otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
             between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
             unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly different
             operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
             Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
             believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
             not believe for a second that the cartels have no experience
             with hackers.

              

             In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned
             as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their
             demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned
             right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening
             to hit back. Provide enough details so we understand who this
             guy is and why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous'
             claims of possessing revealing information on cartel members and
             operations are true, cartels will likely respond with violence
             against individuals revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you
             mean Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public
             disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force the
             GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i
             don't understand what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten
             Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
             against Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will
             continue their threats against any individual using online media
             WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about
             bloggers here. against the cartels.

              

             The Battle Space

             Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
             realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
             of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
             geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
             exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
             are physical people tho live in the real world. They have names
             and addresses - although most of them are likely outside of MX.)
              Anonymous' power base consists of their technical capabilities
             in hacking. Any information connected to the Internet is
             vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of
             individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population
             could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
             has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big
             company with a website that brings in revenue, but it does not
             really matter if you don't run operations on the web. Los Z
             don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are also far less
             dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

             Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
             base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
             believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
             through the internet. This gives an opening for people
             disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
             dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll.
             Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
             themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of serious IT
             capability. 

             The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been
             from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

             The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
             Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
             maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
             commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
             and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight.
             There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar
             capacity.  Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue
             and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
             experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels are
             always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence.
             While battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law
             Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in
             the flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted media
             outlets. Murdering journalists and online bloggers in order to
             cover details of their operations. ok... but that's kind of a
             red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus on the
             possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
             have no cyber presence.

              

             Anonymous' Weapons

             Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
             criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
             combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
             disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
             anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites in
             Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
             admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
             guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
             campaign by technically elite individuals can not be overlooked
             should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream media
             outlets and social media blogs as such a threat to their
             operations, that they have continued to target journalists and
             bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was placed
             with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the body of a
             blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce cartels
             on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not
             really addressing the subheading

             As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
             risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest
             Anonymous is capable of possessing information they threaten to
             release. By releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
             Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
             individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
             information is limited by what is available via the Internet.
             Government computers connected to the Internet should always be
             considered a possibility of an attack. However, as with the
             compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer
             networks, information available to Mexico's intelligence
             collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to
             say here? This isn't clear at all

              

             Cartel's Defense

                         A counter response to the video? by the cartels has
             yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped
             member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the
             threat posed by hackers so... how has there not been a counter
             response? also this undermines your statements above about how
             Anonymous is soley internet based, and underlines the
             vulnerabilities of associated members. How did they find teh
             Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well give you
             some indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
             Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the
             cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed
             for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies
             dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and
             we have good intel indicating that) they are working on
             disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can
             operate in any region of the world. Personal information
             including locations is only available if a hacker chooses to
             divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
             figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous. Cartels
             are only capable of dealing with their online enemy, if they can
             physically reach out to them. Or start employing hackers of
             their own under their payroll? Stranger things have happened,
             Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                         Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
             Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
             help of computer science majors through personal threats has
             been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported where?. 
             Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence and drug
             trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of technical
             experts to help combat any threat by computer hackers.  While
             identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it
             is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
             operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies such
             as the FBi, with far more technical experience and resources
             than cartels, struggle to find hackers through investigations.
             A) How do you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they
             kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are
             equally difficult to track down

                         In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
             likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with,
             brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
             operations within Mexico "still"? why would we assume they
             wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
             communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
             members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
             likely continue to be used to scare online media into submission
             i'm not really seeing the online media-international hacking
             group connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
             inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
             encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of cartel
             violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to be
             seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of
             the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff
             and simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can
             inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 20:50:49</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1481918_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html</permalink>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1483904</id>
    <title>Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta conflict
	in context
</title>
    <description>   Just to build on my last comment - and I think this should be included in
   the piece - the cartels could just as easily try to intimidate would be
   sources ratting to anonymous as intimidate bloggers. Imagine if, after
   anonymous publishes a few juicy tidbits, Zetas hang a few headless bodies
   from a bridge accusing them of contributing to anonymous? True or not,
   cartels can intimidate both sides of the information flow and the sources
   may be more vulnerable than anonymous themselves.

   Still think a discussion of Anonymous and source handling would be pretty
   cool.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Ben West" &lt;ben.west@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 5:42:42 PM
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict        in context

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 4:45:43 PM
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict        in context

   On 11/1/11 1:11 PM, scott stewart wrote:

      Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta Conflict in Context

     On Oct. 31, the online activist collective Anonymous posted a message to
     the internet  in which it stated that it was continuing with its
     campaign against the Mexican criminal cartels and their
     governmentsupporters despite the inherent danger.

      

     The messageurged inexperienced activists who might not be practicing
     proper online security measures to abstain from participating. It also
     urged individuals associated with Anonymous to not conduct physical
     pamphlet drops, participate in protests, wear or purchase Guy Fawkes
     masks, or use Guy Fawkes imagery in their internet or physical world
     activities.[Is this universally or just in Mexico?  The former points to
     problems with LE cracking down on them, the latter specifically to
     cartel retribution]  Guy Fawkes was British Catholic conspirator who was
     involved in a plot to bomb the British Parliament in 1605, and who has
     become somewhat of an Anarchist icon in the United Kingdom. The British
     celebrate Guy Fawkes Day each year on Nov. 5, and the day has special
     meaning for the anarchists.  

      

     It is not coincidental then, that in their Oct. 6 video, Anonymous set
     Nov. 5 as the deadline for Los Zetas to release the Anonymous associate
     who was allegedly kidnapped in Veracruz by Los Zetas. The Anonymous
     associate was reportedly abducted during an Anonymous leaflet campaign
     called Operation Paperstorm.

      

     The Oct. 31message acknowledged that the operation against Los Zetas,
     dubbed a**# OpCartela** is dangerous and noted that the collective would
     be assembling a hand-picked group of known and trusted associates to
     participate in a special task force to execute the operation.[hahahaha,
     this says something about leadership] It asked supporters to use a
     software widget[WC. is this the correct term?] they had developed in
     order to anonymously pass information pertaining to drug trafficking to
     the task force, which will then distribute it. 

      

     With Nov. 5, approaching, and at least some elements of Anonymous not
     backing down on their threats to Los Zetas, we thought it would be
     useful to provide some context to the present conflict between Anonymous
     and Los Zetas and to also address some of its potential implications.

      

     Context

      

     First it issignificant to understand that the physical? geographic?
     epicenter of this event is Veracruz, which  has been a very busy place
     over the past few months in terms of Mexicoa**s cartel wars. The port
     city also serves as a critical transportation hub for the narcotics
     smuggling activities of the Los Zetas cartel. Because of this, Stratfor
     has identified Veracruz as [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111024-mexican-drug-war-update-polarization-continues
     ] a bellweather city thatwill help determine the trajectory of the Los
     Zetas cartel in the coming months. 

      

     One of the big recent developments in Veracruz was the Sinaloa
     cartela**s push into the Zeta stronghold using the [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110928-mexico-security-memo-zetas-defensive-veracruz
     ] Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), which using the name
     Matazetas (Zeta killers) conducted some high-profile body dumps of over
     50 alleged low-level Zeta operatives on Sept. 20 and 22.  On Oct. 25,
     Mexican Marines arrested Carlos Arturo Pitalua-Carillo, a**El Bam
     Bam,a** who was Los Zetas plaza boss in Veracruz.  This means that in
     Veracruz at the present time, Los Zetas are feeling pressure from both
     the Government of Mexico and the CJNG.

      

     Into this dynamic flow, we had the Anonymous internet collective begin
     to take action in Veracruz in August. In response to what Anonymous saw
     as the state of Veracruz supporting the Los Zetas cartel, they launched
     Operation Paperstorm, in which activists who associated themselves with
     the Anonymous collective distributed leaflets throughout Veracruz
     claiming the state government supports Los Zetas.  They conducted major
     leaflet distributions on Aug. 13, 20, and 29. They also released videos
     to the internet on Aug. 26 and 29, condemning the State of Veracruz.
     (According to the Oct. 6 Anonymous video, Los Zetas allegedly kidnapped
     one of the activists involved in Operation Paperstorm.)

      

     Activities outside of Veracruz have also played a part in setting the
     stage. On Sept. 13, two people were tortured and killed and their bodies
     hung from a pedestrianoverpass in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state.  Signs
     left with the bodies signified that Los Zetas had killed the pair
     because they had posted information pertaining to Los Zetas on blogs
     that specialize in reporting on the Mexican cartels. On Sept 26, the
     body of Marisol Macias Casteneda was found beheaded in a park in Nuevo
     Laredo.   Macias who worked for a local newspaper allegedly posted on
     cartel blogs using the nickname a**Laredo Girl.a** A message found with
     her body noted that she was killed by Los Zetas due to her online
     activities.

      

     Following the death of Laredo Girl, Anonymous claimed responsibility for
     a distributed denial of service (DDOS) attack conducted against the
     official website of the state of Veracruz. Although she was killed by
     Los Zetas in Nuevo Laredo Tamaulipas, Anonymous said their attack on the
     Veracruz state website was because of the death of Laredo Girl. [can you
     attempt to explain why they linked it with veracruz?]

      

     It is also important to recognize that some members of Anonymous [again
     I hate referring to Anonymous as one entity] was also unhappy with the
     State of Veracruz over the decision of the state to prosecute two
     individuals who had posted false kidnapping reports on Twitter on Aug.
     25. The false reports alleged that a group of children had been abducted
     from a Veracruz school and the panic caused by the report allegedly
     resulted in some two dozen traffic accidents as terrified parents rushed
     to the school to check o n their children. The so-called a**twitter
     terroristsa** were initially charged with offenses that could have
     carried a 30-year sentence. Those involved in this campaign from
     Anonymous, which claims absolute freedom of speech on the internet as
     one of its foundational principles, took umbrage with this stiff penalty
     for the Twitter case a** especially because it stood in stark contrast
     with the impunity many cartel figures enjoy in Mexico. 

      

      

     Following the Oct. 6 release of the video in which Anonymous threatened
     Los Zetas if they did not release the kidnapped anonymous activist,
     Stratfor began to focus on the story, and in light of the approaching
     Nov. 5 deadline, decided to publish an, [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111028-mexicos-cartels-draw-online-activists-ire
     ] analysis of the topic, which was released on Oct. 28.  

      

     Following the release of our analysis, the topic has received a great
     deal of media coverage. This publicity has generated a very interesting
     response from Anonymous -- one that emphasizes the fast that it is a
     collective of people and not an organization.  As some
     Anonymousactivists were backing off the issue, erasing online user
     accounts[does this mean accounts of people in support of the attack?],
     suggesting that the operation against Los Zetas had been a hoax and
     claiming that no activist had been kidnapped, other activists suggested
     that the campaign should be suspended. Still other activists became more
     strident and determined in their posts, urging that the campaign
     continue. Since Anonymous is a collective, activists can pick and choose
     which actions they will participate in. that means in his case that
     those activists who want to refrain from the campaign will and those who
     want to participate will continue it.  [i see how this paragraph fits
     into your analysis the way you have it written, but I think it might go
     better at the front.  You could use the 'anonymous discussion' as a
     trigger, explain it's "collective" qualities and then go into the rest
     of the analysis.  This way I feel much less bad about how we refer to
     'anonymous']

      

     This will to continue was manifested[something is off in the previous
     part of the sentence] on Oct. 29, the personal website of Gustavo
     RosarioTorres, the former attorney general of the Mexican state of
     Tobasco was hacked and defaced with a message from Anonymous Mexico
     stating that Rosario was aZeta.  It was also reflected in the tone of
     the Oct. 31 message. Some activists associated with Anonymous clearly
     feel compelled to continue with the campaign due to the outpouring[WC. 
     Did they really get an outpouring? seemed like they got a lot of
     criticism and also support for going against the cartels] of public
     support they received in the wake of the media coverage. According to
     the Oct 31. Video statement: (did we see specific examples of "public
     support" or are we just going off of the youtube statement CLAIMING that
     they got lots of support?)

      

     a**we received many expressions of support and solidarity as well as the
     voices of people crying for help. We must remember that we are on the
     side of the people, and we cannot let down the people, especially in
     critical moments like the one they currently live in.a**

      

     We therefore anticipate that some Anonymous activists will continue the
     campaign. We also believe that Los Zetas will respond.

      

     Revenge of the Sith (Yes Kamran, I agree with Isa that Star Wars is
     better than Star Trek. What's Star Trek?) 

      

     The variouscartel groups in Mexico have long used the internet as a
     place to trumpet their triumphs on the battlefield and to taunt and even
     degrade their enemies. The cartels have posted videos of them torturing,
     executing and beheading members of opposing cartels. They also
     frequently monitor narco blogs and sometimeseven post on them.  As
     demonstrated by the blogger killings in Nuevo Laredo in September, Los
     Zetas appear to possess at least some rudimentary capability to trace
     online activity to people in thephysical world. It is not known if they
     employ their own team of dedicated cyber experts or if they rely on
     sources within the Mexican government a** although the most likely
     answer is probably a little of both.  [what about just old-fashioned
     human intelligence?  Many people discuss blogger identities both online
     and offline, something they could've picked up without network-based
     forensics.  'My brother blogs about...' and on from there.  Or by
     tracing the information the blogger had in the real world, and
     eventually getting back to the blogger]

   Tristan was talking about how the cartels were even kidnapping computer
   science students and forcing them to track anonymous down. Need to check
   with him on specifics though

      

      

     In past Anonymous actions, like the Dec. 2010 attack against Pay Pal
     following the Wikileaks case, governments in the U.S. and the UK have
     arrested numerous individuals associated with Anonymous who allegedly
     participated in the attack. In June 2011, Turkey arrested dozens of
     activists associated with Anonymousactions conducted against the Turkish
     government for its efforts to establish a national internet filtering
     system. [Need something to make a point here, maybe something like:] 
     The reality is that there is no such thing as anonymity, on the internet
     or otherwise.  Any action leaves some trail, whether digitial or
     physical.  In the same way that hackers from Anonymous develop exploits
     to access confidential information, law enforcement agencies and even
     cartels could get around encryption, examine patterns of activity and
     investigate leads that in the end identify a real person behind a
     computer. 

      

     Los Zetas, like the other Mexican cartels, do not take affronts lightly.
     Even if Anonymous is not able to provide information that will damage
     Los Zetas smuggling operations, the very fact that this group has
     decided to challenge Los Zetas publicly will result in some sort of
     response. The big question is: do theypossess the capability to
     effectively trace the organizers of the Anonymousaction against them?

      

     One problem with an entity such as Anonymous is that it is intentionally
     amorphous a** it is also as transnational as the internet, and it would
     not be surprising if many of those chosen to participate in the
     operation against Los Zetas are located outside of Mexico in locations
     such as the U.S. and Europe which are outside the immediate reach of Los
     Zetas.(the US is not out of reach, at least not on the border:
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111005-mexico-security-memo-defining-cross-border-violence)

      

     But the amorphous nature of Anonymous can also cut the other way.  If
     Los Zetas pick up and execute some random patrons from an internet cafe,
     behead them and place Guy Fawkesmasks on their heads, it will be very
     difficult to prove that they were not  associated with  Anonymous.  As
     Anonymous noted in their Oct. 31 video, this is dangerous business.(it
     would certainly be within the cartel's capacity to kill innocents and
     blame anonymous in the attempt to intimidate them into stopping their
     activity)

      

      

     The Big Picture

      

     One thing to watch as the Anonymous operation continues is the way in
     which the Mexican public reacts. Many people in the Mexican middle and
     upper classes have been deeply affected by the criminal cartels and
     theviolence the practice. We talk to many people in Mexico who are
     fearful of being kidnapped. In many communities, especially places like
     Juarez, Torreon, Monterrey and Veracruz, businessmen are being caught in
     a terrible bind. On one hand, they are receiving ever-increasing
     extortion demands from the cartels, while at the same time their
     business revenues are dwindling because people are afraid to go out due
     to the violence associated with those same cartels. This is forcing many
     businessmen[enterprises?] out of business. It is also creating a great
     deal of frustration and resentment.

      

     At the same time, Mexico has become one of the most dangerous countries
     in the world for journalists, and many media organizations practice
     heavy self-censorship to protect themselves. In the wake of the
     September blogger killings some of the narco blogs, like Blog del Narco,
     have also exhibited strong signs of fear inspired self-censorship.  
     This means that the legitimate press is not able to be of any real aid
     to the Mexican people.

      

     Mexican citizens are also frustrated with their government, which is
     well-known for corruption.  This is the sentiment feeding Anonymousa**
     original campaign in Veracruz.  This frustration has lead some people to
     begin to talk about

     vigilante groups to fight the cartels a** though that has been attempted
     before in Mexico and as we saw in the case of [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090714_mexico_la_familia_michoacana_expands_its_attacks
     ] La Familia MichoacA!n, which originally began as such a vigilante
     group, vigilantism frequently does not end well.

      

     This is where Anonymous may fit in. With Mexican citizens unable to rely
     on their government, the media or even armed vigilante groups for
     assistance, they may embrace Anonymous and come to view its form of
     cyber vigilantism as an outlet for their frustration -- and a perceived
     safe way to pass oninformation pertaining to cartel activities.  If this
     occurs, we may see people not just in Veracruz and other Zeta controlled
     areas providing information to Anonymous, but citizens from all over the
     country.

      

     Also, in the same way that cartels leak information togovernments in an
     effort to use them as weapons against their rivals, we could also very
     well see groups such as the Sinaloa cartel provide information on Los
     Zetas to Anonymous. This of course would provide even more reason for
     Los Zetas to strike out against the activist collective.

      

     If the Anonymous information campaign does indeed take off, and if
     Anonymous is attacked by Los Zetas, the activists could resort to
     releasing sensitive information to the U.S. Drug Enforcement
     Administration in an attempt to damage Los Zetas. This would be an
     incredible irony in light of the way Anonymous has viewed itself as an
     opponent of the U.S. government in cases like Wikileaks. (Anonymous has
     made it clear that the value they provide is a safe and private medium
     through which to pass this damning information. Their stated priority is
     to publicize information that people send to them. But, do they have a
     way to protect their sources? They likely don't have much collective
     experience in source handling. I imagine a lot of the details they get
     could put their sources in serious trouble. If I were a semi-smart
     Mexican who knew some super detailed information on the cartels, I would
     think long and hard before handing it over to these guys. This may be a
     separate piece entirely, but I think we need a discussion on source
     handling and how good hackers don't necessarily make good intelligence
     agents.)

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   STRATFOR

   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967

   www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-01 23:46:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1483904_re-s-weekly-for-comment-placing-the-anonymous-vs-zeta.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1490781</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Mexican cartels recruiting U.S. teens-US711
</title>
    <description>   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   Below is an assessment report I sent to my bosses with an article down
   below attached to the report. I feel a little frustrated that it is not
   more clearly explained that cartels and organized crime are recruiting
   mostly of not totally teens and young people for poor and impoverished
   families along the border with Mexico. See my assessment report info that
   I sent the bosses.  Of course I sent it on an official form. I feel I am
   correct.
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   I know the article down below has been around for a while.  But it is
   still missing something.  The teens along the border with Mexico that the
   Cartels and domestic gangs are recruiting are teens from low income -
   impoverished families who have no jobs and a bleak future.  They are not
   recruiting teens from middle class and wealthy families.  There are too
   many teens from poor families to recruit who will take anything just to
   have money.  

    

   As Federal, State and local governments slash their budgets and abolish
   programs that help such families, teens and communities, more and more of
   these teens and young people with no jobs and no forms of assistance will
   be recruited by cartels or organized crime gangs and many will take these
   jobs for $50.00 jobs like the article states, because it is better than
   what they have and that is nothing.  The more that is said about the
   border not being secure the more it is translated into do not come,
   because it is dangerous along the border in Texas.  People do not come to
   the border regions, businesses makes no money.  This causes businesses
   to close or have to lay off workers to remain open.  Thus no  jobs and
   high unemployment. 

    

   Just looking at the Rio Grande Valley (RGV) of Texas.  The unemployment
   rate in the RGV is 12.6%; higher than the national average and the highest
   in Texas.  Unemployment rate among teens age 18 and under is 35.5%; almost
   4 times the national average.  Since the RGV in 90% Hispanic and Spanish
   speaking, added to this the cartels general recruit only those who speak
   Spanish, this is a ready pool of young recruits for cartels and organized
   criminal organizations.  I bet the rest of the border regions will be near
   to the same as the RGV where unemployment statistics are concern.  The
   parents of these kids are probably working two and three jobs, if they can
   find a job at all, to make ins meet.  Those who are unemployed and cannot
   find a job may also be in the drug trafficking business and have recruited
   their own teens and young adult children to help earn money for their
   family. The Texas DPS press release asked parents to speak to their kids. 
   When a parent tell their kids not to get involved with drug traffickers
   and the teen has no job or a prospect to one, what is next?  What should
   the kid do? 

    

   I have a friend in the Rio Grande Valley whose 21 year old grandson-in-law
   was unemployed and needed work to support his three small children and 22
   year old wife (my friend's granddaughter).  A man offerred him $500.00 to
   drive a truck from Pharr 70 miles (105 Km) to Falfurrias, Texas.  That was
   it, just drive a truck.  He told the man he could drive and he needed that
   $500.00.  He got to the Falfurrias Border Patrol Check Point and a drug
   dog hit on the truck and they found over 300 lbs of marijuana hidden in
   the panels of the truck.  He was arrested.  He indicated that he had no
   idea there was drugs hidden in the truck.  He was offerred $500 just to
   drive a truck and he needed the money.  He said his kids needed things and
   that $500 was a life savior.  Not only was he arrested, but his $500.00
   was seized.  He got nothing.  This tells me that cartels and organized
   criminals cares little for poor impoverished teens and young people.  I
   get the impresson that organized criminals feel that society does not care
   either.  They see these poor teens and young adults as insigificant
   nobodies there to sacrifice for the common good of the drug trafficers. 
   It is teens and young people from families such as this one who the
   cartels and organized criminal groups recruit from.  They are not
   interested in recruiting teens from middle class and wealthy families. 

    

   Cartels have billions of dollars to spend in these impoverish communities
   along the border with Mexico while governments are cutting funding and
   programs that help the poor in these communities.  In my humble opinion,
   the USBP Operation Detour better come with jobs and programs to help these
   communities and youth or it will fall on deaf ears.  When the only options
   you have are to starve with no jobs or work for cartels and organized
   crime gangs who will pay you something, what would you do.  One dies from
   starvation for being poor and one may die working for organized gangs or
   cartels.  I believe we all know that starving is not a real option.  You
   may die from working for drug cartels, but at least you will die with food
   in your stomach. 

    

   There is a human side of this that is missing.  I know the Congressman
   calls cartels a threat to the nation, but he fails to mention that poverty
   adds to that threat.  I guess no one wants to recognize that poverty both
   in Mexico and the U.S. adds to the threat to the nation, because that
   would mean you would have to admit all of the program cuts that help
   impoverish communities and the young people also is a threat to the
   nation. 

    

   Live5News.com Mexican cartels recruiting U.S. teens

   http://WCSC.images.worldnow.com/images/static/hdr/hdr_branding.jpg

   .          

   Mexican cartels recruiting U.S. teens

            http://wcsc.images.worldnow.com/images/15768055_BG1.jpg

   (CNN) - Officials are warning Texans living near the Mexican border that
   several drug cartels are now recruiting high school students to do their
   dirty work.

   At a recent house homeland security subcommittee hearing, Texas Republican
   Representative Michael McCaul called Mexican drug cartels a "threat to the
   nation."

   "Violence in Mexico is spreading in ways that increasingly show
   characteristics of terrorism," McCaul said.

   And now, the Texas Department of Public Safety is warning parents that the
   cartels are recruiting high school students on the U.S. side of the
   border.

   Earlier this month, officials said a 12-year-old boy was caught in a
   border county driving a stolen pick-up truck containing more than 800
   pounds of marijuana.

   "The Mexican cartels value Texas teenagers for their ability to serve as
   expendable labor in many different roles and they have unlimited resources
   to recruit our children," Department of Public Safety Director Steven
   McGraw said.

   Teens are sometimes offered as little as $50 to act as drivers for the
   cartels or the local crime gangs that support them. It's the same tactic
   the cartels have used in Mexico because they know the law is more lenient
   with minors.

   In an effort to protect children, the U.S. Border Patrol is putting
   renewed emphasis on a campaign called "Operation Detour."

   Its goal is to educate high school students about the perils associated
   with smuggling.

   Texas Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples said the drug cartels are
   intimidating farmers and ranchers on the Texas side of the border, some of
   whom have been assaulted and chased off their own property.

   Testifying before congress last week, former U.S. Drug Czar Barry
   McCaffery said U.S. officials can no longer ignore the influence of
   Mexican criminal organizations all over the United States.

   He said the organizations were operating in 260 cities, all the way to
   Portland, OR, where he talked to their police department.

   "They've moving hundreds of metric tons of cocaine, heroine,
   methamphetamines, ecstasy, high THC-content marijuana across that border,"
   McCaffery said.

   For now, there's no shortage of customer demand.

   Copyright 2011 CNN. All rights reserved.
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 22:42:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1490781_-alpha-insight-mexico-mexican-cartels-recruiting-u-s-teens.html</permalink>
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      <file><path>attach/13/13602_msg-21778-20766.jpg</path><size>19506</size><md5></md5><sha1>11feed972f75693248f33a138542a69b6e969928</sha1></file>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1495201</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111
</title>
    <description>   this dude really gives the impression that Moscow calls the shots in Kiev

   so basically, Med gets pissed b/c Timo is blowing Putin and not him, so he
   whines to Putin and says drop the B and get behind Yanu like me. Putin
   says fine, Yanu gets excited and oversteps his boundaries, and now Putin
   is like fix this shit Med and Med is like okay, but we dont know what Med
   is actually gonna do to slap Yanu around

   so what's the couterargument to this? Does Russia really have this much
   influence over the situation?  this is something we need to address in
   ukraine reassessment

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marc Lanthemann" &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

   CODE: UA111
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Kiev
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch.
   But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps
   this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to
   begin with.

    

   You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in
   power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew
   Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to
   solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be
   Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most
   easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got
   her in trouble and arrested.

    

   But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no
   respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev
   made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a
   deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if
   Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being
   the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU,
   military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension
   it had been pushing for.

    

   So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009,
   the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing
   to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of
   demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally.

    

   Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev
   to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing
   against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever
   will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-09-14 20:55:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1495201_re-alpha-insight-ukraine-moscow-kiev-spat-ua111-.html</permalink>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1495374</id>
    <title>INDIA/SOUTH ASIA-Xinhua 'Roundup': Concerns Rise About Excessive Use of Police Force in Dealing With Occupy Protesters
</title>
    <description>   Xinhua 'Roundup': Concerns Rise About Excessive Use of Police Force in
   Dealing With Occupy Protesters
   Xinhua "Roundup": "Concerns Rise About Excessive Use of Police Force in
   Dealing With Occupy Protesters" - Xinhua
   Thursday November 3, 2011 21:09:48 GMT
   TAMPA, the United States, Nov. 3 (Xinhua) -- The peace that existed
   between U.S. law enforcement authorities and the Occupy movement is now
   over as police in many U.S. cities broke into violent clashes with
   peaceful protesters, leading to concerns about the excessive use of police
   force.

   About 30 people were arrested Thursday in Oakland, California, as police
   in riot gear fired tear gas and flashed grenades to clear a downtown
   street, where supporters of the Occupy Wall Street movement gathered.As
   many as 70 demonstrators have been arrested so far in Oakland since police
   first began using tear gas and beanbag grenades last Tuesday in an empty
   building commandeered by demonstrators. About 40 people were subsequently
   arrested on various charges.The latest arrests were made after Occupy
   Oakland protesters called for a day of general strikes and attempted
   barricade of the Port of Oakland on Wednesday, both were intended to be
   non-violent.Scott Olsen, a 24 year-old former U.S. Marine who had served
   in Afghanistan, has now become a symbol of the Occupy protesters' cause
   after he was wounded in the head from a police projectile in Oakland on
   October 25.Now recovering from his head wound, Olsen has seen Occupy Wall
   Street protesters, and other Occupy demonstrators making the phrase "We
   are all Scott Olsen" a mantra to be chanted, as well as a slogan to be put
   on protest signs.As criticism arose from these clashes, Howard Jordan,
   chief of Oakland Police Department for Interim Police, issued a statement
   last Friday assuring the publi c that all allegations of misconduct and
   excessive use of force are being thoroughly investigated.The Occupy
   protesters have modeled themselves after the late Indian religious,
   social, and political leader Mohandas K. Gandhi, who led nationwide
   non-violent movement against the British rulers in the first half of the
   20th century.Despite this, in less than a month, clashes between police
   and demonstrators have occurred in not only Oakland, but also Nashville,
   Tennessee; Portland, Oregon, and Atlanta, Georgia.In California's state
   capital, Sacramento, Cindy Sheehan, a noted anti-war dissenter, and 20
   other protesters were detained in mid-October for not leaving a city park,
   according to the Sacramento Police Department."(Sacramento) Mayor (Kevin)
   Johnson understands the frustrations expressed by Occupy Sacramento and
   respects the group 's commitment to political change through peaceful
   demonstration and the democratic process," Joaquin McPeek, spokesman for
   the Mayor , told Xinhua.Nonetheless, "the City has a duty to maintain a
   safe and healthy environment in its parks. The Mayor is not in favor of
   allowing certain, special groups to make exceptions to City ordinances,"
   McPeek added.Over two dozen protesters have been arrested in Nashville,
   Tennessee, where they took over the city's Legislative Plazaare. Now,
   protesters are defying a 10pm-6am curfew, after a local judge said they
   should not be legally jailed after being arrested.Elli Whiteway,
   spokesperson for Occupy Nashville, revealed Monday that the local chapter
   of the American Civil Liberties Union has filed a federal lawsuit
   "alleging that the (previously made) arrests and new regulations were
   violations of our First Amendment rights."About 30 Occupy protesters were
   arrested in Portland, Oregon on Sunday after clashes with the local
   police. Ten more demonstrators were arrested on Tuesday.Before they were
   arrested, they chanted "the whole world is watching, the whole world is
   watching," a slogan used in the Chicago demonstrations in 1968 when the
   city hosted the Democratic National Convention. Blue-shirted,
   white-helmeted police physically struck many demonstrators with clubs and
   sticks and opening cans of tear gas to disseminate the protesters.In
   Denver, Colorado, black-helmeted, clear-shield clad police officers used
   on Sunday pepper spray and pepper balls on a crowd of Occupy
   demonstrators, arresting 20 in total.Even Tampa, Florida, where
   demonstrations have been comparatively mild, lost its status as the only
   site with no arrests in previous weeks as police made 10 arrests."It can
   be difficult for law enforcement to deal with civil protests, but officers
   should be well trained and follow that training to manage and respect the
   constitutionally respected rights of speech and assembly," said John
   Dingfelder, an attorney for the ACLU Mid-Florida Regional Office in
   Tampa.The U.S. Department of Justice (USDOJ) rec eives over 1,000
   complaints of police conduct every year, said USDOJ spokesman Xochitl
   Hinojosa, who refused to reveal the number of complaints regarding the
   excessive use of police force on Occupy protesters."If anyone wishes to
   contact us to report an incident, they can find our contact information on
   our web site and we will respond in writing," Hinojosa added.(Description
   of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for
   English-language audiences (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-04 11:39:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1495374_india-south-asia-xinhua-roundup-concerns-rise-about.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1497330</id>
    <title>[alpha] Occupy Wall Street (DHS analysis)
</title>
    <description>3</description>
    <date>2011-10-25 18:04:51</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1497330_-alpha-occupy-wall-street-dhs-analysis-.html</permalink>
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    <files>
      <file><path>attach/13/13637_DHS IP Special.pdf</path><size>797704</size><md5></md5><sha1>cbe7c9e671329c00f0091f1c9e330de5ed455db9</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1500429</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged "Anonymous" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise "anonymous"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-10 19:47:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1500429_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1507660</id>
    <title>Re: SYRIA/TURKEY - Compilation of statements regarding Buffer zones
	and No Fly Zone
</title>
    <description>   Thanks for sending. I'll add those to my database.  It's important to see
   that this idea has been tossed around for a few months.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Michael Wilson" &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, November 21, 2011 10:39:04 AM
   Subject: Re: SYRIA/TURKEY - Compilation of statements regarding Buffer
   zones        and No Fly Zone

   Here are some other articles

   Turkey hardens stance against Syria
   November 1, 2011 5:11 pm
   http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f1438150-049e-11e1-ac2a-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1d82Vwk3y
   By Daniel Dombey in Istanbul

   Turkey has signalled possible support for a buffer zone to protect Syrian
   civilians if Damascus continues its crackdown on democracy protests, as
   tensions rise between the two former strategic partners.

   Ahmet Davutoglu, Turkeya**s foreign minister, told the Financial Times
   that Ankara was preparing targeted sanctions against Damascus and left the
   door open for more drastic steps at a later date, such as a buffer zone or
   a no fly-zone on Syrian territory.

   a**The Syrian regime is attacking the Syrian people, which is
   unacceptable,a** Mr Davutoglu said in an interview. a**When we see such an
   event next door to us of course we will never be silent.a**

   When asked about Turkeya**s stance on a buffer zone or a no-fly zone, he
   said: a**We hope that there will be no need for these type of measures but
   of course humanitarian issues are importanta*|There are certain universal
   values all of us need to respect and protecting citizens is the
   responsibility of every state.a**

   His comments are an indication of the growing pressure Turkey is putting
   on Syria, on the rhetorical level at least, to halt the crackdown.

   By contrast, in August Turkish officials rejected reports they were
   planning to impose a buffer zone, while Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Natoa**s
   secretary general, dismissed the idea of a no-fly zone this week.

   Turkeya**s position is important because the country cultivated closer
   ties with Damascus until this year and is now taking an active role in
   reaching out to the Syrian opposition.

   Speaking at the Turkish parliament on Tuesday, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
   Turkeya**s prime minister, praised the Syrian protests as a**gloriousa**
   and expressed his belief that they would succeed.

   Ankaraa**s tougher approach has been greatly welcomed by the US, which has
   been leading calls for Bashar al-Assad, Syrian president, to leave power.

   On Tuesday Syrian state television announced that a final agreement had
   been reached between the Syrian government and an Arab League committee
   working to find a solution that could end the unrest, although it did not
   provide any details. The US said it welcomed any international efforts to
   end the violence in Syria, but reiterated its call for Mr Assad to step
   down.

   Although in the interview Mr Davutoglu denied claims that Turkey allowed
   armed Syrian rebels to operate from its territory, last week he became one
   of the first international officials to meet leaders of the Istanbul-based
   opposition Syrian national council.

   Mr Erdogan is also likely to visit Syrian refugee camps in Turkey in the
   near future, and could announce further sanctions against Damascus when he
   does. The trip had previously been scheduled for last month, but was
   postponed because of the death of Mr Erdogana**s mother.

   Although Mr Davutoglu said Turkish sanctions against Syria would be
   targeted rather than broad, any unilateral steps would mark a change of
   tack for Turkey, which has long depicted sanctions against its neighbours
   as both ineffective and damaging to its own economy.

   a**We have always been against sanctions, economic sanctions which will
   harm people,a** Mr Davutoglu said. a**But certain measures [that] have an
   impact on a regime fighting against its own people are different.a**

   Mr Davutoglu also rejected a claim by Mr Assad that western intervention
   in Syria could turn the country into another Afghanistan.

   a**[To compare] Syria to Afghanistan would mean implicitly to accept that
   it is a failed state, which is not true,a** he said. a**There is a state
   continuing in Syria; the important thing is how the leaders of this state
   are acting.a** He added that the correct analogy was with eastern Europe
   in the 1980s and early 1990s and warned Mr Assad: a**Those leaders who do
   not understand this correctly will lose power.a**

   Turkey reportedly planning buffer zone along border with Syria

   Excerpt from report by Saudi-owned leading pan-Arab daily Al-Sharq
   al-Awsat website on 7 November
   http://www.asharq-e.com/news.asp?section=1&amp;id=27239

   [Report by Tha'ir Abbas in London: "Turkish Sources to 'Al-Sharq
   al-Awsat': We Have the 'Readiness and Ability' To Implement the Buffer
   Zone After an Arab and International Cover. Extraordinary Meeting of the
   Arab League on Saturday After Declaring Syrian Regime Did Not Implement
   its Obligations"]

   The situations in Syria entered a new stage yesterday with the emergence
   of signs of an Arab-international-regional move which might lead to
   fundamental changes in the handling of the Syrian dossier.

   Next to the extraordinary session that the Arab initiative committee will
   hold next Saturday to discuss the Syrian Government's failure to implement
   its obligations which it accepted in the Arab action plan for resolving
   the Syrian crisis, sources in the Syrian opposition have disclosed they
   have received promises that the UN Security Council [UNSC] will hold a
   session after the Arab meeting to discuss a UN resolution to send
   international observers to Syria while Turkey has expressed its "readiness
   and ability" to establish a buffer zone on condition of getting an "Arab
   and international cover."

   Turkish sources have told Al-Sharq al-Awsat that Ankara is having
   high-level coordination with Qatar that chairs the Arab initiative and
   with the Arab League [AL] and also Washington

   They said Turkey was going to announce several sanctions in a message that
   Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyib Erdogan was scheduled to address to
   the Syrians during his inspection of their camps inside Turkey but
   contacts led to the postponement of these stands "so as to make room for
   the Arab initiative and see what results it will have."

   But the sources pointed out that "with the escalation in the situation and
   the stalling of the initiative, Turkey might raise the (sanctions) issue
   again." They added that Turkey was holding contacts with the UNSC member
   countries that are still hesitant, especially Brazil and South Africa
   which have very close ties with Turkey, in order to persuade them to take
   a different stand.

   The Turkish sources disclosed that Ankara was in fact imposing some kind
   of sanctions on the regime by its total ban on the entry of any kind of
   weapons to Syria, such as stopping previously three shipments from Iran,
   in addition to "the careful examination" of some banking transfers to
   businessmen loyal to the regime so as to pressure and prevent them from
   supporting it.

   They cited Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu about his country's
   readiness to impose a buffer zone all along the borders to protect the
   civilians and stressing that his country "has the readiness and ability to
   impose the buffer zone but we need an Arab and international cover."

   Sources in the Syrian opposition have told Al-Sharq al-Awsat they have
   received promises of holding a new UNSC session this week whose agenda
   will include a draft resolution to send a team of observers to Syria. They
   pointed out that the mission of the "blue berets" would be to watch the
   Syrian violations and hence protect the demonstrators from the daily
   killings. [Passage omitted citing the AL's statement on Saturday's meeting
   of the Arab committee]

   On his part, Radwan Ziyadah, member of the Syrian National Council, has
   told Al-Sharq al-Awsat that the AL's next meeting on Saturday could be
   decisive "because the regime has been given three chances so far and
   squandered them all. I believe this is enough to force the hesitant
   countries to take a stand." He pointed out that "it is obvious that the
   Syrian regime will not stop the killings but on the contrary, it is using
   all the army's firing power in shelling the cities" and added: "Things
   will be better if it (the AL) takes the right decision, demands
   international protection, and authorizes the UNSC to take the appropriate
   resolution. It will then be impossible for Russia and China to use the
   (veto) or even abstain from voting." He said "it would be a mockery and
   ridiculous for the AL to give the regime more chances after all it has
   done" and noted in return that the Syrian opposition's contacts with AL
   Secretary General Nabil al-Arabi "showed an unusual s! eriousness" in
   addition to the opposition's contacts with countries Ziyadah described as
   "hesitant" such as Sudan and Algeria which "showed a change in stands."
   [Passage omitted on French foreign minister's statements on Syrian
   situation]

   Source: Al-Sharq al-Awsat website, London, in Arabic 7 Nov 11

   BBC Mon ME1 MEEauosc 071111 js

    Syrian opposition say Turkey "promised"' to arm dissidents, boycott      
    regime                                                                   
                                                                             
    Text of report by Saudi-owned leading pan-Arab daily Al-Sharq al-Awsat   
    website on 3 November                                                    
                                                                             
    [Report by Tha'ir Abbas in London: "Turkish official tells Al-Sharq      
    al-Awsat: We will take measures to protect the Syrian civilians and stop 
    the use of violence; Syrian opposition sources talk about Turkish        
    promises to establish a buffer zone, arm the dissidents, and boycott the 
    regime"]                                                                 
                                                                             
    Turkey has regained its hard-line tone against the Syrian regime         
    following a period of "anticipation" imposed by the successive           
    developments in the region. As Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip       
    Erdogan returns the Syrian file to the forefront of Turkey's priorities, 
    his close associates tell Al-Sharq al-Awsat that the expectations in     
    Turkey indicate that Ankara is on the verge of preparing for a higher    
    ceiling of statements and actions against Syria. Sources in the Turkish  
    prime minister's office have said that Erdogan did not make his expected 
    visit to the Antakya region due to the events that imposed "other        
    concerns". This was a reference to the attacks that the Kurdistan        
    Workers' Party perpetrated and the large-scale military operation that   
    the Turkish forces launched in northern Iraq. The sources pointed out    
    that Erdogan's visit to Antakya region to review the living conditions   
    of the Syrian "guests" in the Turkish camps has been deferred, not       
    cancelled. ! The sources went on to say that a new date for this visit   
    will be set after Erdogan returns from his two visits to Germany and     
    France and after the Id al-Adha holiday.                                 
                                                                             
    Ersat Hurmuzlu, the Turkish president's chief adviser, stated yesterday  
    [ 2 November] that his country will take "measures" regarding Syria,     
    adding that compliance with international sanctions imposed on the       
    Syrian regime are not subject to discussion. Hurmuzlu told Al-Sharq      
    al-Awsat that his country "will take measures to protect the Syrian      
    civilians and to stop the use of violence". However, he declined to go   
    into details but promised that the Turkish prime minister will announce  
    these measures in the name of the Turkish government. Hurmuzlu said that 
    his country "did all it can to expedite reforms in Syria; however, it    
    has lost hope because the Syrian leadership has chosen the principle of  
    violence and bloodshed". Hurmuzlu pointed out that his country was the   
    first to call for dialogue between the regime and the opposition. He     
    went on to say: "Why not if the new Arab initiative responds to the      
    demands of the Syrian people and guarantees the sparing of more !        
    bloodshed". He emphasized that the "legitimate demands of the Syrian     
    people should be met. The decision is in the hands of the Syrian         
    people". Syrian opposition sources disclosed to Al-Sharq al-Awsat        
    yesterday that Ankara promised the Syrian opposition to take four steps  
    that Erdogan will announce during his visits: Turkey will sever all      
    relations with the Syrian regime, will join the total and comprehensive  
    boycott of Al-Asad's regime, arm the Free Syrian Army, support the       
    establishment of a buffer zone in northern Syria, and help the Syrian    
    opposition on the international level regarding the demand of            
    international protection.                                                
                                                                             
    Hurmuzlu answered a question related to remarks made by Buthaynah        
    Sha'ban, the Syrian president's adviser, who talked about "Turkish       
    promises to issue passports to the Syrian refugees on Turkey's soil".    
    Hurmuzlu replied: "This is categorically incorrect. We consider these    
    civilians as guests, not refugees that. The circumstances in their       
    country drove them to seek asylum; they are free to return to their      
    country". Answering another remark by Sha'ban on why the refugees fled   
    from Idlib to Turkey instead of to Aleppo that is closer, Hurmuzlu said  
    that the security conditions forced them to take this step. He added:    
    "Seeking asylum in Turkey by the refugees was by choice. We did not ask  
    them to come to Turkey and we did not force them to return or to stay".  
    He emphasized that his country is treating its guests "will all          
    respect". He added that the Turkish authorities launched a vaccination   
    campaign among the refugees against Hepatitis and conducted a full       
    survey ! of the medical conditions of the more than 7,000 refugees.      
    Hurmuzlu concluded that the Syrian regime's remarks that the refugees    
    are being exploited are totally unjustified.                             
                                                                             
    Source: Al-Sharq al-Awsat website, London, in Arabic 3 Nov 11            
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEEauosc 051111/da                                           

    Paper views Turkey's plans to establish "buffer zone" on Syrian border   
                                                                             
    Text of report in English by Turkish newspaper Today's Zaman website on  
    23 August                                                                
                                                                             
    [Column by Abdullah Bozkurt: "A Buffer Zone With Syria in the Works"]    
                                                                             
    In the last National Security Council (MGK) meeting held on Aug. 18,     
    members of this top decision-making body on national security matters    
    discussed the possibility of establishing a "buffer zone" along the      
    Syrian border in case there is a wave of refugees fleeing in droves to   
    the Turkish side.                                                        
                                                                             
    In a nearly five-hour-long deliberation, the contingency planning for a  
    buffer zone was studied carefully and drawn up upon the possibility that 
    the Bashar Al-Assad regime will likely fail to stem violence in the      
    turbulent country. All hell will break loose when Syria destabilizes and 
    a civil war starts that is fought along ethnic and sectarian fault       
    lines, sending millions of Syrians to the Turkish border to seek safe    
    haven. That is why Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan described 
    what has been happening in Syria since March as very much an "internal   
    affair of Turkey."                                                       
                                                                             
    Turks still remembers the aftermath of the first Gulf War during which   
    almost a million Iraqi Kurds flocked to Turkey following Saddam's        
    crackdown in northern Iraq. It caught Turkish authorities unprepared and 
    created numerous problems within Turkey. Ankara did not repeat the same  
    mistake in the second Iraq war when it drew up plans to create buffer    
    zones inside Iraq, using already established military outposts there as  
    logistical command centres. Thankfully, it did not come to that as       
    Saddam fought the battle mostly in central and southern Iraq, while      
    Kurds enjoyed the protection provided by the US-led coalition in the     
    north.                                                                   
                                                                             
    In the present case, the buffer zone would be set up first in the "no    
    man's land" between the Syrian and Turkish lines of demarcation and      
    would be extended further into Syrian territory if needed. Considering   
    that the width of the no man's land on the Turkish side varies from 300  
    to 1,000 meters along the Syrian border, the possibility of extending it 
    onto Syrian soil is quite likely. What is more, there is not much of an  
    alternative as to where to set up these refugee centres as most of the   
    877-kilometre-long border still remains heavily mined. There are some    
    pockets of the border areas where mines were cleared by both sides and   
    are available to use. But that would not be enough.                      
                                                                             
    The good news is that most of the land near the border falls under the   
    legal category of "Forbidden Military Zone," meaning that the Turkish    
    Armed Forces (TSK) supervises the public land. Some of this land was     
    farmland before and owned by private parties, but it was all             
    nationalized during the 1956 demarcation. The TSK has cleared mines from 
    some of this land, but most of it remains heavily mined. According to    
    Turkey's commitments to Ottawa mine treaty obligations, all these mines  
    should be cleared by 2014, which seems highly unlikely at the current    
    pace. Amazingly, Syrian farmers took it upon themselves to clear mines   
    in the fertile buffer zone, totalling 250 million square meters, and     
    planted cotton and olive trees.                                          
                                                                             
    As many restive towns in Syria located in the north are close to the     
    Turkish border, the risk is greater for Ankara than other neighbouring   
    countries in the east and the south, i.e., Iraq and Jordan. The Turkish  
    policy of open borders also differs from others as we saw in the June    
    refugee crisis. "Turkey is the sole country to declare an open border    
    policy. This is indeed a very impressive operational approach," Carol    
    Batchelor, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), said   
    of Turkey at the time.                                                   
                                                                             
    In a way, Turkey ran drills during the June crisis that saw over 10,000  
    Syrians who fled from violence to seek safe haven in Turkey. It was a    
    small-scale operation and was manageable on its own, but the refugee     
    crisis looming on the horizon would dwarf what we saw back then and will 
    undoubtedly require massive contingency planning. Officials from the     
    Prime Ministry's Disaster and Emergency Management Directorate (AFAD)    
    are telling us that they are ready to immediately mobilize to respond to 
    a wave of refugees crossing the border as well as to evacuate Turkish    
    citizens and forei gn nationals stuck in the violence in Syria. AFAD     
    received much praise for handling evacuations from Egypt and Libya       
    earlier this year.                                                       
                                                                             
    To claim legitimacy and dismiss accusations of hostile intentions,       
    Turkey would likely pursue this approach in coordination with            
    international and regional bodies. International law, especially         
    articles and additional protocols of the 1949 Geneva Conventions as well 
    as the newly developed UN doctrine of the Responsibility to Protect      
    (R2P), certainly allows Turkey to take action to protect civilians       
    during the conflict. Though Turkey will take the lead and initiative,    
    any buffer zone would likely be operated with the UNHCR with members     
    from the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), the Arab League and  
    the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) pitching in, either by committing     
    manpower or providing financial resources.                               
                                                                             
    This would be first and foremost a humanitarian obligation on Turkey's   
    part and should not be confused with anything else. Designated buffer    
    zones would help reduce casualties in heavily mined border areas. In the 
    absence of buffer zones, Syrians would nonetheless push across border    
    areas where it might be dangerous. As such, buffer zones would remove    
    the need to attempt hazardous journeys and alleviate concerns at least   
    to some extent in what otherwise would be seen as a catastrophic         
    humanitarian crisis.                                                     
                                                                             
    Lest Damascus adopt the "scorched-earth-policy" with respect to          
    civilians in border areas, Turkey, with Europe's largest army, would     
    have no problem in providing firepower to protect and secure refugee     
    centres. We all know what happened in so-called safe havens in Bosnia,   
    Rwanda and northern Iraq where hundreds and thousands were butchered     
    despite promises of protection from the UN or occupying powers. Turks do 
    not want anything like this on their conscience and will do everything   
    in their power to prevent the Assad regime from going after fleeing      
    refugees.                                                                
                                                                             
    The younger Assad should recall how Turkey, frustrated with the terror   
    originating in its southern neighbour, threatened military action        
    against his country in the late 1990s during which he was busy climbing  
    up the military ranks to replace his older brother, Basil, who           
    unexpectedly died in a car crash, forcing his father Assad to nominate   
    the junior Assad, his only son, as the rightful heir. Like father, son   
    Assad knows very well that Turkey means business and that it does not    
    fool around.                                                             
                                                                             
    It is true that Turkish officials have openly said they are against      
    establishing buffer zones along the Syrian border, and we have reported  
    what they said in this newspaper. Considering that Ankara does not want  
    this crisis to escalate into a full-blown civil war, statements like     
    these were not unexpected at all. However, that does not mean Turks are  
    naive and have no fallback positions whatsoever when push comes to       
    shove. Let's just pray it never comes to that.                           
                                                                             
    Source: Zaman website, Istanbul, in English 23 Aug 11                    
                                                                             
    BBC Mon EU1 EuroPol 230811 sa/osc                                        

   Syrian reportedly deploys anti-aircraft defences near Turkish border

   Excerpt from report by Kamil Saqr in Damascus entitled "Al-Asad rejects
   calls to step down and warns the West of the consequences of attacking
   Syria. Damascus deploys sophisticated air defences near Turkish borders"
   published by London-based independent newspaper Al-Quds al-Arabi website
   on 22 August

   Syrian President Bashar al-Asad has rejected the calls to step down saying
   he decided not to reply to them because they were not important and added:
   "These remarks are not said to a president chosen by the people and who
   does not care about the post." He stressed that "if the West has made
   these calls in defence of human rights then the number of the victims
   killed and injured by the West is in the millions." He made these
   statements in an interview with the state-owned Syrian television channel
   last night which was preceded by nationalist songs praising him and
   meetings with citizens in Hamah city who said life had returned to normal,
   there was activity in the markets, and that prices were good. [Passage
   omitted on Al-Asad's interview]

   On the other hand, Al-Quds al-Arabi has learned from authoritative sources
   that the Syrian Armed Forces deployed last Thursday a number of
   antiaircraft units from the sophisticated air defence system on the
   northern borders neighbouring Turkey. According to what is known in this
   matter, Damascus deployed its anti-aircraft units from the coastal Kasab
   area towards the Syrian interior to the east. Information says Damascus
   deployed more than 25 very sophisticated antiaircraft vehicles, believed
   to be Russian made, with each vehicle carrying four launching pads that
   can manoeuvre and confront four mobile air targets.

   The deployment followed the escalation in Ankara's warnings to Damascus
   last week and the talk about the possibility of an air strike on Syria by
   NATO in which the Turkish forces would be its spearhead. But Ankara then
   made it definite through Turkish president's Adviser Ersat Hurmuzlu that
   Turkey would not intervene militarily in Syria and would not be a crossing
   for any foreign forces to it.

   The Syrian forces had already deployed hundreds of antitank bases
   alongside the Turkish borders in a message, which according to observers,
   was addressed to Turkey not to think at all about establishing a buffer
   zone to protect the Turkish national security borders which might be
   threatened by the Syrian army's military operations in the Idlib, Jabal
   al-Zawiyah, and Jisr al-Shughur areas near Turkey. The Syrian forces also
   formed a new military brigade to be the base and the launch pad for
   command of the military operations that were carried out in Jisr
   al-Shughur and Jabal al-Zawiyah against what were called armed groups.
   [Passage omitted citing Western diplomats on Syrian attacks on Palestinian
   camp, arrival of UN human affairs team]

   Source: Al-Quds al-Arabi website, London, in Arabic 22 Aug 11

   BBC Mon ME1 MEEauosc EU1 EuroPol 220811 sm

              A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011
   Turkish defence minister denies plan to establish buffer zone on Syrian
   border

   Text of report in English by Turkish semi-official news agency Anatolia

   ["TURKEY-SYRIA UNREST -Turkish defence minister says Turkey is not willing
   to create a buffer zone on the Syrian border" - AA headline]

   SIVAS (A.A) -Turkey's defence minister has said the country did not plan
   to create a military buffer zone on its southern border with Syria.

   "We want to sweep landmines on our border with Syria. We do not want to
   create a border with more landmines or set up a buffer zone," Ismet Yilmaz
   told reporters Tuesday in the central city of Sivas.

   As of today, 9,430 Syrians have returned to their country from their six
   temporary tent-sites set up by Turkish Red Crescent in Altinozu,
   Yayladagi, Reyhanli towns and Apaydin village of Turkey's southern
   province of Hatay.

   Nearly 16 thousand Syrians have fled violence and crossed into Turkey
   since since January 2011 when the Syrian government launched a nation-wide
   crackdown on pro-democracy protestors.

   Source: Anatolia news agency, Ankara, in English 16 Aug 11

   BBC Mon EU1 EuroPol ME1 MEPol 160811 em/osc

   Turkey to set up Syria buffer zone: CNN Turk TV
   ReutersBy Ibon Villelabeitia | Reuters a** 49 minutes ago
   8/16/2011
   http://ca.news.yahoo.com/turkey-set-syria-buffer-zone-cnn-turk-tv-135304135.html
   ANKARA (Reuters) - A Turkish broadcaster said on Tuesday Turkey would set
   up a buffer zone on its border with Syria, but a Turkish government
   official said he had no such information.

   CNN Turk broadcast the news in a rolling headline. It gave no source and
   did not say what form the buffer zone, presumably involving encroachment
   on Syrian territory, would take.

   Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told Syrian President Bashar
   al-Assad on Monday military operations against civilians must end
   immediately and unconditionally, warning the Syrian president that this
   was Ankara's "final word." Turkish leaders, who once backed Assad, are
   sounding increasingly frustrated at Damascus.

   With Assad defying international pressure and Syrian refugees crossing
   over the border, media have reported that Turkish political and military
   leaders are considering setting up a buffer zone inside Syria.

   Turkey was caught off guard when 500,000 people flooded across the border
   from Iraq during the 1991 Gulf War, many of them staying for some time
   after the war. The years that followed saw small contingents of Turkish
   troops policing what was an effective 'buffer zone' in the north of Iraq.

   Having almost gone to war in the late 1990s because of Turkish Kurdish
   militants using Syria as a sanctuary, Damascus would not welcome the
   prospect of Turkish boots on Syrian soil.

   (Writing by Ibon Villelabeitia)

   On 11/21/11 10:14 AM, Ashley Harrison wrote:

     Below is a compilation of statements regarding a buffer zone (first) and
     then a no-fly zone (below the statements regarding a buffer zone).  When
     Gul was asked directly regarding foreign military intervention he said
     he did not think it was necessary now.  The people who are affirming the
     need for a buffer zone (officially) do not seem to be Turkish
     officials.  For example, Syria's MB leader Riad Shaqfa is calling for a
     buffer zone, FSA's Riyad Al Assad, and the SNC basically says they agree
     with the Syrian MB (see exact wording below).

     In terms of the No Fly Zone, an unnamed Turkish official said no Turkish
     military action in Syria has ever been discussed, and in response to a
     question regarding imposing a no fly zone Davutoglu stated, "that there
     might be a need to enforce some measures if Syria continues its
     crackdown on civilians." Then of course there are all of the details
     about the No Fly Zone that were published in Sabah which talks about a
     5KM buffer zone. 

     Statements from OS on a Buffer Zone

     -Todaya**s Zaman Nov. 21 - "These are the issues to be solved within
     Syria. We do not think that any foreign military intervention in Syria
     would be appropriate now," Turkish President Abdullah Gul told a group
     of journalists aboard a plane carrying him to London on Sunday.

     -Todaya**s Zaman Nov. 20 - Earlier in the week, opposition figure and
     member of Syria's Muslim Brotherhood Mohammad Riad Shaqfa told Reuters
     that the establishment of a "buffer zone" is urgently needed to dampen
     the ongoing violence in Syria. "If the international community
     procrastinates then more is required from Turkey as a neighbour to be
     more serious than other countries to handle this regime," the opposition
     figure said earlier this week. Turkey-based Syrian National Council
     (SNC) Wael Mirza in an interview with Sunday's Zaman. Mirza, who
     supports the official non-violent stance of the SNC, a diverse coalition
     of anti-Assad forces, nevertheless maintains that international efforts
     must be focused on protecting civilians "by any means."

     -Reuters Nov. 19 - Radikal's Yetkin said the Turkish military could
     establish a buffer zone if the Syrian army advanced on a city, like
     Aleppo, close to the Turkish border. Columnist Asli Aydintasbas of
     Milliyet newspaper wrote: "Foreign ministry sources added that Turkey
     could set up a no-fly buffer zone within Syria if Syrians fleeing the
     army create a mass wave of migration to Turkey. "A more extensive
     military intervention could come on the table only if Syrian regime
     starts a large-scale massacre in a big city such as Aleppo or Damascus,"
     Aydintasbas added. "Ankara could take a role in a military intervention
     against Syria only with the international community and following a U.N.
     Security Council decision."

     -Turkeya**s a**Milliyeta** Nov. 19 - Foreign Ministry officials with
     whom I spoke yesterday, saying that "we will not carry out a military
     intervention in order to change the regime," expressed in clear language
     that Turkey opposes a unilateral military intervention from the outside.
     Foreign Ministry sources state that Ankara is putting various scenarios
     onto the agenda, and that "in the eventuation of certain conditions, the
     military option, even if a low probability, could also be used." These
     scenarios are for "a massacre to be carried out by the Syrian regime in
     Aleppo or Damascus" and "a great wave of refugees towards the border."
     The Foreign Ministry officials said that in the event of a large wave of
     refugees fleeing from the military in Syria amassing on the Turkish
     border, a "no-flight buffer zone" could be set up within Syria. In the
     event of a wave similar to that which took place in Iraq in 1991,
     Turkey, rather than opening up its border, would provide the needs of
     the people within a safe area inside Syria. There is no need for a UN
     Security Council resolution in order to form a buffer zone within the
     framework of this scenario.

      -Bloomberg Nov. 18 - "We want a buffer zone in the north, on the
     Turkish-Syrian border, and another in the south near the border with
     Jordan as these would help with our advance," Riad al As'ad, a former
     Syrian colonel who leads the Free Syrian Army, said in a phone interview
     today.

     -Al Sharq Al Awsat Nov. 19 - Syrian National Council General Secretariat
     Member Dr Wa'il Mirza adds: "The Muslim Brotherhood leadership has
     confirmed to us that this proposal is not a call for a unilateral
     military intervention, but it is for a Turkish intervention under the
     umbrella of the Arab League to protect the civilians. This also is what
     has been confirmed to us by the Turkish foreign minister. Therefore, we
     are in agreement with Turkey that any intervention will not be by a
     country unilaterally, and that any step towards protecting the citizens
     or establishing a buffer zone will be on the basis of Arab League
     resolutions. The Arab-Turkish coordination still is continuing within
     this framework following the Syrian regime's non-implementation of the
     Arab initiative."

     -Al Arabiya TV Nov. 17 - When asked to comment on an AFP report that the
     Syrian Muslim Brotherhood has asked for Turkish military intervention to
     protect civilians by establishing a buffer zone, Iraqi FM Zebari says:
     "This issue has been proposed, but intervention will be very difficult
     without an international support for it. Therefore, it is very difficult
     for Turkey alone to take such a step." He adds that the situation in
     Syria is "completely different" from the situation in Libya, noting that
     the international intervention and no-fly zone came upon a Security
     Council resolution, backed by the Arab League. Therefore, he says, "let
     us give the Arab initiative enough time to be effective for both the
     regime and opposition."

     -Lebanese National News Agency Nov. 13 - Najah Wakim, former parliament
     member and president of the Popular Movement, says that "the disgraceful
     decision issued by the Arab League meeting was drafted by the US
     Pentagon and endorsed by the agent governments that belong to the US and
     Israel." He adds. "This grave decision is a basic part of the aggression
     plan against Syria that is spearheaded by the United States with a view
     to destroying Syria, as well as tearing apart the Arab nation. This
     reality has been confirmed by reports about secret and public
     communication between these Arab countries and Turkey in order to
     establish a buffer zone in Syria, in addition to the statements about
     constant and continuous contacts between UN Secretary General Ban
     Ki-moon and the Arab League Secretary General Nabil al-Arabi."

      

     Statements from OS on a No Fly Zone

     -a**Todaya**s Zamana** Nov. 20 - "There exist no military plans between
     Turkey and Syrian opposition, and no plans for a Turkish move have even
     been discussed," a Turkish official told Sunday's Zaman. The official,
     who spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the fragile nature of a
     possible military move against Syria, insisted that a possible Turkish
     mission to intervene in conflict between president Bashar al-Assad and
     anti-regime protesters was a "one-sided" plan.

     -Al Sharq Al Awsat Nov. 19 - Faruq Tayfur, Muslim Brotherhood deputy
     controller general and spokesman at the Syrian National Council,
     syriasyriaTayfur has said to Al-Sharq al-Awsat: "What Shaqfah said about
     accepting Turkish intervention came within the context of a talk about
     international intervention to resolve the Syrian crisis. During his talk
     Shaqfah pointed out that we were pursuing an Arab solution, but if the
     Syrian regime did not stop the killing then we would not have any
     objection to Turkish intervention and no-fly zone, but without this
     meaning a military intervention." With regard to what has been reported
     by Turkish newspaper Sabah that the Syrian National Council, including
     the Muslim Brotherhood, has asked Turkey to impose a no-fly zone along
     the Turkish side of the borders with Syria in order to protect the
     civilians, Tayfur stresses: "We have not asked Turkey to do this.
     However, this issue was discussed at the meeting between the council
     members and the Turkish foreign minister within the framework of
     reviewing the probable scenarios to confront the Syrian regime."

     -a**Todaya**s Zamana** Nov. 18 - Ahmet Davutoglu, has said pressure on
     Syria needs to be increased to stop the bloodshed, starting with
     economic sanctions. He also added, upon a question whether Turkey would
     support a no-fly zone over Syria, that there might be a need to enforce
     some measures if Syria continues its crackdown on civilians.

     -a**Todaya**s Zamana** Nov. 18 - In order to accelerate the transition
     in the region, which appears inevitable now, Turkey seems to accept the
     idea of a no-fly zone in northern Syria to provide a safe haven for the
     opposition and to reinforce security at the Turkish border. 

     -Turkeya**s a**Sabaha** Nov. 18 a** a**SABAH has acquired details of the
     plan for Syria put forth by the oppositional forces. The first step of
     the plan directed at Syrian State Leader Bashar Assad, which the
     opposition has discussed with the Arab League and Turkey, involves
     establishing a five kilometer no-fly zone along the Turkish border,
     south of Aleppo. This calls for a 5KM no fly zone, full details here.

      

      

     Articles: The majority of the articles were from Translations, so you
     can go back and search key words in Translations to find the articles.
     Some of the translations articles are below

    Turkey, France call for increased pressure on Syria                      
                                                                             
    Text of report in English by Turkish newspaper Today's Zaman website on  
    18 November                                                              
                                                                             
    [Unattributed report: "Turkey and France call for increased pressure on  
    Syria"]                                                                  
                                                                             
    The Turkish and French foreign ministers, meeting in Ankara on Friday,   
    called for greater international pressure on Syria as a government       
    crackdown on anti-regime protesters in Turkey's southern neighbour       
    escalates.                                                               
                                                                             
    French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe has said his country opposes any     
    unilateral intervention against Syria, insisting any such move should be 
    mandated by the UN. At the joint press conference held after the two     
    ministers had a tete-a-tete meeting, Juppe called on the UN Security     
    Council to act against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime, saying 
    the time has come to toughen sanctions against Syria over its brutal     
    crackdown on civilians. Juppe, who said France wanted to work with the   
    Arab League and Turkey as well as the Syrian opposition, has expressed   
    doubt on whether Syria would respond positively to an Arab League peace  
    plan proposal.                                                           
                                                                             
    His Turkish counterpart, Ahmet Davutoglu, has said pressure on Syria     
    needs to be increased to stop the bloodshed, starting with economic      
    sanctions. He also added, upon a question whether Turkey would support a 
    no-fly zone over Syria, that there might be a need to enforce some       
    measures if Syria continues its crackdown on civilians.                  
                                                                             
    Recalling that Turkey and Syria had close ties in the past, and that     
    Turkey has made many efforts to convince Assad to end the violence,      
    Davutoglu expressed his frustration with the Syrian regime which, he     
    said, not only has turned a deaf ear to all calls of reform coming from  
    Turkey and the world, but also, and most importantly, opened fire on his 
    own people instead of listening to their demands. The issue that is of   
    utmost importance in Syria is to put an end to the violence, Davutoglu   
    said and explained Turkey's position on the matter: "At the moment the   
    most important proposal is the one suggested by the Arab League,         
    according to which the Arab League would send observers to Syria to      
    inspect the withdrawal of soldiers from the cities. If this initiative   
    by the Arab league, which Turkey also supports, does not get a positive  
    response, then some sanctions will be necessary."                        
                                                                             
    Juppe said the EU was planning to toughen the sanctions already in place 
    against Syria's economic assets and some people in Syria, and added that 
    the EU countries have already agreed to apply sanctions in such a way    
    that the ordinary people in Syria would not be affected adversely.       
    Expressing his doubt about Syria accepting the Arab League's proposals,  
    Juppe said, "We are not in favour of a unilateral intervention, and      
    should any military action be needed then that should be mandated by the 
    UN Security Council." But according to Associated Press, a senior Syrian 
    official said on Friday that Syria agreed "in principle" to allow an     
    Arab League observer mission into the country, but Damascus was still    
    studying the details.                                                    
                                                                             
    Source: Zaman website, Istanbul, in English 18 Nov 11                    
                                                                             
    BBC Mon Alert EU1 EuroPol ME1 MEPol 181111 sa/osc                        

      

              A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

      

      

      

    Turkey might use "military option" against Syria in case of massacres -  
    paper                                                                    
                                                                             
    Text of report by Turkish newspaper Milliyet website on 19 November      
                                                                             
    [Column by Asli Aydintasbas: "We Could Go Into Syria Only if it Engages  
    in Massacres"]                                                           
                                                                             
    In an atmosphere in which 30 people per day have been dying in Syria,    
    and in which rumours of a "buffer zone" have been voiced loudly in the   
    international media, Ankara has clarified the steps that it is going to  
    take with regard to its neighbour to the south.                          
                                                                             
    Assessments made in Ankara, which began with Prime Minister [Recep       
    Tayyip] Erdogan's beginning to take a stance against the [Bashar]        
    Al-Asad regime in his words at the beginning of the summer to the effect 
    that "we cannot just look on at the things taking place in Syria,"       
    feature the points that the Al-Asad regime's days are numbered, that     
    there no longer remain any possibilities of reform, and that there is no 
    possibility of "going back" for either the regime or the opposition.     
                                                                             
    Foreign Ministry sources, saying that "the regime in Syria is going to   
    collapse like a building constructed by an incompetent contractor," are  
    of the view that the collapse will occur over the middle term, and not   
    from "outside intervention" but rather from "within."                    
                                                                             
    Stating that for Ankara, following lengthy efforts aimed at persuasion,  
    to finally burn its bridges with Bashar al-Asad was "a proper stance,    
    both from the idealistic and from the realist standpoints," one          
    high-level official said: "From the standpoint of idealism, you cannot   
    remain indifferent to the deaths of so many people. And from a realist   
    standpoint, Turkey's interests call for support to democratization in    
    the region. The old totalitarian regimes and dictators do not produce    
    stability. Dictators do not bring stability. This is a regime that has   
    started to collapse. We are on the side of the people, of the majority.  
    Stability can only be achieved with the coming of democracy."            
                                                                             
    Following internal analyses conducted in recent weeks, a steady stream   
    of diplomatic and intelligence reports, and international contacts,      
    Ankara has given shape to its Syria policy.                              
                                                                             
    The phase henceforth includes the expansion of economic sanctions within 
    the UN framework, restrictions on petroleum sales (measures that will be 
    felt by the middle and upper-middle classes), limiting border traffic,   
    and organizing the opposition. But what the entire world is wondering    
    about is whether or not Turkey is engaged in preparations for a military 
    intervention directed at Syria.                                          
                                                                             
    Conditions for Intervention                                              
                                                                             
    Foreign Ministry officials with whom I spoke yesterday, saying that "we  
    will not carry out a military intervention in order to change the        
    regime," expressed in clear language that Turkey opposes a unilateral    
    military intervention from the outside.                                  
                                                                             
    But this does not mean that the military option, or the formation of a   
    "buffer zone" closed to flights under the protection of Turkey, is       
    completely outside the realm of possibility. Foreign Ministry sources    
    state that Ankara is putting various scenarios onto the agenda, and that 
    "in the eventuation of certain conditions, the military option, even if  
    a low probability, could also be used."                                  
                                                                             
    These scenarios are for "a massacre to be carried out by the Syrian      
    regime in Aleppo or Damascus" and "a great wave of refugees towards the  
    border." The Foreign Ministry officials said that in the event of a      
    large wave of refugees fleeing from the military in Syria amassing on    
    the Turkish border, a "no-flight buffer zone" could be set up within     
    Syria. In the event of a wave similar to that which took place in Iraq   
    in 1991, Turkey, rather than opening up its border, would provide the    
    needs of the people within a safe area inside Syria. There is no need    
    for a UN Security Council resolution in order to form a buffer zone      
    within the framework of this scenario.                                   
                                                                             
    As for a more far-reaching military intervention, it is being considered 
    only within the scenario of the Syrian regime's embarking upon a         
    large-scale massacre in a major province such as Aleppo or Damascus.     
    Ankara states that, in the event of a threatened massacre or an          
    attempted massacre such as Qadhafi conducted prior to Benghazi, it could 
    play a role , together with the international community and by getting a 
    UN Security Council resolution, in a military intervention in Syria.     
                                                                             
    Confronting Iran                                                         
                                                                             
    Officials playing a role in the formation of policy on Syria stated      
    clearly that there is no "Sunni reflex" in Turkey's view of Syria, and   
    that, just to the contrary, it opposes the "sectarian" vision such as    
    presented by Iran. One official said: "We have no interest in this       
    affair's coming to a sectarian dimension; just to the contrary,          
    religious and sectarian polarization in this region is a serious threat  
    for us. For this reason, going beyond religion and sect, we are          
    stressing the culture of compromise and even secularism in Syria, as     
    well as in Egypt and Iraq."                                              
                                                                             
    These words were also the overt admission that the Turkish-Iranian       
    relationship, which has been experiencing one of its most glowing        
    periods in history under the AKP [Justice and Development Party]         
    government, is shifting onto a harsher basis.                            
                                                                             
    Source: Milliyet website, Istanbul, in Turkish 19 Nov 11                 
                                                                             
    BBC Mon EU1 EuroPol ME1 MEPol 201111 mk/osc                              

      

              A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

      

     Turkey said ready to impose 5-km deep buffer zone at borders with Syria

     Turkish advisor says cover needed for buffer, Opposition says debate
     between 5km and 30 km

     Excerpt from report by Tha'ir Abbas in London entitled "Ankara announces
     it is ready to impose 5-km deep buffer zone and Syrian opposition wants
     it 30-km deep. Turkish official to 'Al-Sharq al-Awsat': Zone aim is to
     stop cycle of violence and killing in Syria" by Saudi-owned leading
     pan-Arab daily Al-Sharq al-Awsat website on 14 November

     Turkey announced yesterday it has started urgent international
     consultations and with the Arab League [AL] and regional countries to
     discuss the "measures that should be taken" in Syria following recent
     developments while the "buffer zone" at the Syrian-Turkish borders would
     be a "main dish" on the table of discussions between Turkish Foreign
     Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and his Arab counterparts at the Turkish-Arab
     forum in Rabat on Wednesday, which a Turkish official told al-Sharq
     al-Awsat the foreign minister would use to discuss the "abnormal
     situation in Syria."

     In a statement issued by its foreign ministry, Turkey called on the
     international community to act "with one voice" towards the situation in
     Syria and said the "Syrian Government's stand reveals the need for the
     international community to act with one voice towards the dangerous
     developments in Syria." It added that Turkey backs the AL's resolution
     to suspend Syria's participation in its meetings until it fulfils its
     obligation of implementing the Arab initiative for ending the crisis
     which stipulates the cessation of the acts of violence.

     While sources in the Syrian opposition asserted to Al-Sharq al-Awsat
     that the delegation which met Davutoglu discussed with him the "means of
     protecting Syrian civilians by Turkey", a Syrian oppositionist said
     Turkey is ready to impose a 5-km deep buffer zone at the borders while
     the opposition is proposing 30-km deep zone.

     In the first official Turkish comment on the issue, the Turkish
     president's Adviser Ersat Hurmuzlu has told Al-Sharq al-Awsat that it is
     possible to establish this zone if there is international cover
     following the Arab cover secured by the AL's resolutions. He pointed out
     that this zone's aim would be "to stop the existing cycle of violence
     and killing at present" and said: "Turkey has been backing the AL's
     efforts right from the beginning but the Arabs and Turkey were deeply
     disappointed by the Syrian administration's failure to implement the
     pledges under the Arab initiative with which it said it would comply."
     He added that the regime's actions created the united international,
     regional, and Arab stand and stressed that "no administration can be
     successful and permanent if it wants to remain in power by suppressing
     its peoples." The Turkish official also asserted that the Syrian stand
     caused the Arab resolution and the hard-line international stands and
     Da! mascus cannot hold anyone else responsible for what has happened.

     He disclosed that his country has started wide international, regional,
     and Arab consultations "to discuss the measures that should be taken"
     and pointed out that Foreign Minister Davutoglu would hold intensive
     meetings with the Arab foreign ministers on the sidelines of the Rabat
     forum after tomorrow (Wednesday) to discuss the "abnormal situations" in
     Syria.

     Regarding the buffer zone, Hurmuzlu pointed out that there is not a
     cover yet for this step and said: "It is possible to take this step but
     the cover is the important thing." He added: "The AL resolution is in
     itself tantamount to an Arab cover because it includes the option of
     later consultation to protect the civilians. If the international
     community takes a unified stand on this matter to stop the shedding of
     blood and violence then we will welcome such measures for the principal
     aim of stopping the existing cycle of violence and killing at present."
     He pointed out that his country would not sever its diplomatic relations
     with the regime or withdraw its ambassador from Damascus but has
     withdrawn the families of staff after the recent events and held Syria
     responsible "for protecting the diplomatic missions." He called on the
     Syrian leadership to "prevent a repetition of what happened" and
     announced that "Turkey maintains its right to take the appropriate me!
     asures if no urgent measures were taken to prevent a repetition of what
     happened and to bring to account those responsible for them immediately
     and without delay." [Passage omitted on Turkey's reaction to attack on
     its diplomatic missions in Syria and Turkish Foreign Ministry's
     statement]

     Source: Al-Sharq al-Awsat website, London, in Arabic 14 Nov 11

     BBC Mon ME1 MEEauosc EU1 EuroPol 141111 sm

      

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-21 17:41:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1507660_re-syria-turkey-compilation-of-statements-regarding-buffer.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ashley.harrison@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1521269</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - Gulen, Dogan Media Group, AKP
</title>
    <description>   I have a few senior contacts within Hurriyet. Will ping them on this as
   well.

   ---

   Sent from my BlackBerry device on the Rogers Wireless Network

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Emre Dogru &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Mon, 18 Jan 2010 11:29:57 +0200
   To: Reva Bhalla&lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;; Kamran Bokhari&lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: INSIGHT - Gulen, Dogan Media Group, AKP
   From the source in Hurriyet whom I met this past Saturday. A guy from the
   Dogan Media Group (I guess from the finance desk) later joined us. I got
   to know the columnist from the alumni of our Faculty. This was the first
   time that I met both.

   Hurriyet guy used to have (maybe he still does) good contacts within Gulen
   Movement (called Community). Then he got out of the community. He says
   that the hierarchy within the comm is extremely rigid. They work like in
   cell-organization. I am responsible for five persons. Another guy is
   responsible for five persons like me and so on. They are all asked about
   our "protegee"s financial and health situation by senior Gulenists.

   There is no other organization like this to challenge them. They are very
   very powerful within the police. And (this is just a personal opinion)
   they are working on the judiciary system to have more Gulenist judges.
   Gulenists never talk about politics with outsiders. It is almot impossible
   to get what they really think. They can discuss with you but only to a
   certain point. Then you're out. The real financial base is small-scale
   Anatolian businessmen and small shop owners. Junior Gulenists regularly
   visit them to collect the money.

   Concerning AKP - Gulen relationship: Gulen officially supports a political
   party for the first time. However, Erdogan doesn't like him (or hates
   him). The entire relationship is based on mutual interests. Gulen needs a
   powerful political party, AKP needs broad political support. They had a
   major dispute over Ergenekon. At a certain point, Erdogan thought that
   things might get screwed and wanted to back down a bit. But Gulen insisted
   on deepening the probe. In the past, the entire rhetoric of the comm. was
   based on "tolerance". But now, they don't show mercy for those who don't
   support them. They show target and destroy. Community acts more
   aggressively.

   After the Erdogan - Aydin Dogan spat followed by the tax fine, Dogan media
   group now is in big big trouble. Aydin Dogan might be even sent to the
   jail. In a month or so, all newspapers (except for Hurriyet) owned by
   Dogan will be sold. The client is decided: Koza Group. Koza Group is
   Gulenist and responsible for managing the budget of Gulen Comm. which is
   earmarked for media operations. The most prominent chief editor of Turkey
   (Hurriyet) was replaced by another guy after 25 years. Also, all the
   executive boards of these newspapers are being shuffled. Dogan family
   members are being replaced by 'professionals'. Tax and other things are
   just parts of this grand strategy. After this operation, around 70-80% of
   the Turkish media will be owned by Gulen. There is only one month left. (I
   asked why secular business groups don't react) They all care about the
   money and not really willing to have a war with AKP.

 --
 Emre Dogru
 STRATFOR
 +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-01-18 14:05:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-14 17:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1521269_re-insight-gulen-dogan-media-group-akp-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1523735</id>
    <title>Re: Hurriyet Daily News ve Stratfor isbirligi
</title>
    <description>   Murat Bey, anlasma uzerinde ne gibi degisilikler yapilmasi gerektigini
   dusundugunuzu gorusmeyi ben de isterim. Dilerseniz email ya da telefon
   uzerinden, dilerseniz uygun oldugunuzda Istanbul'da bir araya gelebiliriz.
   Kolayliklar,
   Emre Dogru

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Mehmet Murat Yetkin" &lt;murat.yetkin@hdn.com.tr&gt;
   To: "Emre Dogru" &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;, "taylan bilgic"
   &lt;taylanbilgic@gmail.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, June 16, 2011 4:16:19 PM
   Subject: RE: Hurriyet Daily News ve Stratfor isbirligi

   DeA:*erli Emre bey,

   SAP:zleAA*meyi okudum. BU sAP:zleAA*menin HA 1/4rriyet Daily News
   gazetesinin AS:A:+-karlarA:+- doA:*rultusunda iyileAA*tirilmesi
   zorunluA:*u olduA:*u kanaatine vardA:+-m. Bu konuyu da gAP:rA 1/4AA*mek
   isterim.

   Selamlar,

   Murat Yetkin

    

   From: Emre Dogru [mailto:emre.dogru@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, June 16, 2011 9:34 AM
   To: Mehmet Murat Yetkin
   Subject: Re: Hurriyet Daily News ve Stratfor isbirligi

    

   Murat Bey, ekte HDN ve Stratfor arasinda imzalanmis olan anlasmayi
   gonderiyorum. Fikirlerinizi beklerim.

    

   Selamlar,

   Emre Dogru

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Mehmet Murat Yetkin" &lt;murat.yetkin@hdn.com.tr&gt;
   To: "Emre Dogru" &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, June 15, 2011 2:21:38 PM
   Subject: RE: Hurriyet Daily News ve Stratfor isbirligi

   Merhaba Emre bey,

   A*ok teAA*ekkA 1/4r ederim.

   A:DEGAA*birliA:*i anlaAA*mamA:+-zA:+-n sizdeki kopyasA:+-nA:+- bana
   gAP:nderebilir misiniz lA 1/4tfen?

   Onun A 1/4zerinde konuAA*mak daha uygun olacaktA:+-r.

   Selamlar,

   Murat Yetkin

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Emre Dogru [mailto:emre.dogru@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, June 15, 2011 12:58 PM
   To: Mehmet Murat Yetkin
   Subject: Hurriyet Daily News ve Stratfor isbirligi

    

   Merhaba Murat Bey,

   Ben Stratfor adli Amerikan uluslararasi politika arastirma sirketinin
   Turkiye ve bolge sorumlusu Emre Dogru. Oncelikle HDN'deki yeni goreviniz
   dolayisiyla sizi tebrik eder ve basarilar dilerim.

   HDN ve Stratfor arasinda David Bey'in calisma doneminde kurulmus bir
   isbirligi anlasmasi mevcut. Ben sahsen HDN'de calisan arkadaslarla cesitli
   vesilelerle gorusuyor ve fikir alisverisinde bulunuyorum. Strafor yonetimi
   ve CEO'su George Friedman bu isbirligine deger veriyor ve surdurulmesini
   arzuluyor. Eger sizin icin de uygun olursa, Istanbul'da oldugunuz bir gun
   hem sizinle tanismak, hem de iki sirket arasindaki isbirliginin icerigini
   ayrintilariyla paylasmak isterim.

   En iyi dileklerimle,
   Emre Dogru

 --

 Emre Dogru

  

 STRATFOR

 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514

 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468

 emre.dogru@stratfor.com

 www.stratfor.com

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1523735_re-hurriyet-daily-news-ve-stratfor-isbirligi-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>taylanbilgic@gmail.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>murat.yetkin@hdn.com.tr</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1526669</id>
    <title>Insight question from our CANVAS source
</title>
    <description>Our CANVAS source has a question about Kurds in Iraq. He helps us a LOT 
and I'd like the three of you to help me with this question as soon as 
you can. It is fairly simple and Yerevan should be able to answer it 
pretty easily:

1. How is the autonomy of Kurds in Iraq regulated? Are there laws? What 
kind of rules they have that set them up apart from the rest of Iraq?

2. How are the Kurds organized territorially in Iraq and who wrote the 
administrative rules on this division? Was this written by the 
Americans, is it recent?


-- 
Marko Papic
Senior Analyst
STRATFOR
+ 1-512-744-4094 (O)
+ 1-512-905-3091 (C)
221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
Austin, TX 78701 - USA
www.stratfor.com
@marko_papic
</description>
    <date>2011-05-23 16:36:21</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-06-18 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1526669_insight-question-from-our-canvas-source-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>yerevan.saeed@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1527815</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION - New EU Commission
</title>
    <description>   I don't want to play down the appointment of German guy but I am still
   skeptical as to the extent to which the energy commissioner can push the
   EU toward an cohesive energy policy.
   From the Lisbon Treaty:
   Art. 194. Such measures shall not affect a Member State's right to
   determine the conditions for exploiting its energy resources, its choice
   between different energy sources and the general structure of its energy
   supply, without prejudice to Article 192(2)(c).

   Art. 192(2)(c) Also refers to another article, which stipulates that no
   Member State can violate EU's energy policy's general objectives. Sounds
   cool. If this happens,  measures significantly affecting a Member State's
   choice between different energy sources and the general structure of its
   energy supply   can only be adopted (HOWEVER) by the Council acting
   UNANIMOUSLY, which means that every country has the right to veto.

   Marko Papic wrote:

     Resending

     ----- Original Message -----
     From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "analysts" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Saturday, November 28, 2009 11:00:04 AM GMT -06:00 Central America
     Subject: DISCUSSION - New EU Commission

     Ok, so the new EU Commission has been announced.

     What is the relevance of this EU Commission? Well for one, the Germans
     and the French have LOCKED DOWN the two key posts: internal market and
     energy!  How did they do this? By brilliant manuvering. They gave the
     Poles the EP Presidency, which Warsaw thought was uber important but is
     mainly ceremonial. That was the first key EU post and they gave it to
     the Poles first, who bought it like crazy. Then they got UK out of EU's
     internal business by giving London the FM post. This was not as "cheap"
     as the EP President, BUT it gave the post to a relative unknown Brit who
     is from Labor and now owes her relevancy completely to the EU.

     BRILLIANT.

     Here are the next steps:

       * 11-19 Jan. 2010: Hearings with the newly-nominated commissioners
         in the European Parliament.
       * 26 Jan. 2010: Final vote of the European Parliament on the full
         Commission (9.00-11.00 debate in plenary; 11.00-12.00 political
         group meetings; 12.00-13.00 vote in plenary). 
       * 1 Feb. 2010: New Commission expected to take office.
     Entire line up (my comments in orange):

     The appointments in full:

       * Jose Manuel Barroso (Portugal): President With Van Rompuy as EU
         President, Barroso still retains power. Imagine if Blair was EU
         President. It would be Barroso who?
       * Joaquin Almunia (Spain): Competition  According to EU sources, he is
         loyal to Barroso (makes sense, they are Iberian). He is also a bad
         ass. Expect him to take member states to court if he deems they are
         being protectionist. Will piss off Berlin and Paris for sure.
       * Catherine Ashton (UK): Foreign Affairs High Representative As I
         said, this was a great choice for Berlin and Paris. They get UK off
         of their hands with a post that will not let UK meddle in EU
         internal affairs.
       * Michel Barnier (France): Internal Market and Services BOOM. This
         shows how RETARDED Brown is. He installed a relative unknown who may
         go "native" into the FM post and gave up the internal market and
         services to the FRENCH!!! The City of London is PISSED.
       * Olli Rehn (Finland): Economic and Monetary Affairs Former
         Enlargement guy gets this post, also loyal to Barroso, will
         undoubtedly piss off Berlin and Paris.
       * Dacian Ciolos (Romania): Agriculture
       * John Dalli (Malta): Health and Consumer Policy Wow... granted, the
         Maltese are super health conscious, so if you're Monsanto or
         Sagenta, you are NOT happy.
       * Karel De Gucht (Belgium): Trade
       * Stefan Fu:le (Czech Republic): Enlargement This was something that
         was discussed. A new member state gets the enlargement portfolio.
         Nice compromise here as well, since Prague is not as crazy about
         Ukraine/Georgia
       * Connie Hedegaard (Denmark): Climate Action Denmark gets climate
         action, poignant.
       * Maire Geoghegan-Quinn (Ireland): Research and Innovation
       * Janusz Lewandowski (Poland): Budget/Financial Programming
       * Guenther Oettinger (Germany): Energy HUUUUUGE... Germany gets a key
         post and screws Central Europeans completely
       * Janez Potocnik (Slovenia): Environment Slovenians got on the whole
         "green" bandwaggon first, so this is cute.
       * Neelie Kroes (Netherlands): Digital Agenda
       * Laszlo Andor (Hungary): Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion Oh
         God... Hungarians in charge of employment...
       * Maria Damanaki (Greece): Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Makes sense.
       * Johannes Hahn (Austria): Regional Policy Tame choice.
       * Rumiana Jeleva (Bulgaria): International Cooperation, Humanitarian
         Aid and Crisis Response
       * Siim Kallas (Estonia): Transport
       * Cecilia Malmstro:m (Sweden): Home Affairs
       * Andris Piebalgs (Latvia): Development
       * Viviane Reding (Luxembourg): Justice, Fundamental Rights and
         Citizenship
       * Algirdas Semeta (Lithuania): Taxation and Customs Union
       * Antonio Tajani (Italy): Industry and Entrepreneurship This is
         usually the DG that fights with all the free market DGs, so Italian
         running it is a key.
       * Androulla Vassiliou (Cyprus): Education, Culture, Multilingualism
         and Youth  
       * Maros Sefcovic (Slovakia): Interinstitutional Relations and
         Administration

 --
 C. Emre Dogru
 STRATFOR Intern
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 +1 512 226 3111
</description>
    <date>2009-11-30 18:24:47</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-24 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1527815_re-discussion-new-eu-commission-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1529211</id>
    <title>Re: Hurriyet Daily News ve Stratfor isbirligi
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1529211_re-hurriyet-daily-news-ve-stratfor-isbirligi-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>murat.yetkin@hdn.com.tr</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/122/122089_20110615124352675.pdf</path><size>99792</size><md5></md5><sha1>64589ef5d36ce2f1366aaa067cc52d50abcb14c9</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1531886</id>
    <title>INDIA - Over 300,000 affected by floods in Bihar
</title>
    <description>   Saturday, September 12, 2009
   Over 300,000 affected by floods in Bihar
   Indo-Asian News Service, Patna
   http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news-details.php?nid=105393

   More than 300,000 people have been affected by flash floods caused due to
   heavy rains in drought-hit districts of Bihar, an official said Friday.

   Thousands of people in over 100 villages in Gaya, Nalanda, Jehanabad and
   Nawada districts were rendered homeless and are struggling to survive on
   roads and other high places. The areas, drought-hit just over a month ago,
   have been witnessing heavy rains for the past one week.

   Bihar's Minister for Disaster Management Devesh Chandra Thakur admitted
   that flash floods hit thousands of people in the erstwhile
   drought-affected areas.

   "The flood situation is grim in the drought-affected districts because of
   rising river waters following heavy rains," Thakur told IANS.

   After floodwaters forced villagers to flee their homes under Dhanrua block
   in Patna district, hundreds of people have turned the Masaurih-Patna road
   into a temporary shelter for the last two days.

   "They staged protest demanding relief and also called for rescue
   operations," a local activist Dinesh choudhary said.

   "The flood situation is really bad in several villages in rural Patna,
   Jehanabad, Nalanda and Gaya," an official of the flood control cell said.

   Magadh Commissioner Sanjeev Kumar Sinha said flash floods have inundated
   villages in Gaya, Jehanabad, Nalanda and Aurangabad districts. Those
   suffering from drought are now struggling to get rid of floodwaters.

   Gaya, Nalanda, Nawada and Jehanabad are four of the 26 districts that were
   declared drought-hit by the state government in June and July due to
   scanty rainfall that had also hit paddy seedling transplantation.

   Now dozens of villages in Jehanabad are inundated with floodwaters and
   road links have been snapped due to the heavy rains in the last three
   days.

   The Falgu river, which is usually almost dry, is flowing above the danger
   mark due to the downpour in Gaya and Jehanabad. Similarly, the Morhar
   river in Gaya and Jirain river in Nalanda are also flowing above the
   danger mark.

   Bihar has a 21 percent rainfall deficit so far this monsoon. But till the
   first week of August, the rainfall deficit recorded was 42 percent.

 --
 C. Emre Dogru
 STRATFOR Intern
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 +1 512 226 311
</description>
    <date>2009-09-11 21:48:35</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1531886_india-over-300-000-affected-by-floods-in-bihar-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1532300</id>
    <title>Gulen movement: Turkey's third power
</title>
    <description>Gulen movement: Turkey's third power

   +------------------------------------------------------------------------+
   |  Key Points                                                            |
   |                                                                        |
   |  * Turkey's Islamist Gulen movement, while a powerful political force, |
   |    is largely an unfamiliar entity to the West.                        |
   |                                                                        |
   |  * The movement's extensive operations in various fields, including    |
   |    education and media, give it unique access and influence.           |
   |                                                                        |
   |  * While secular Turks and the military continue to have serious       |
   |    reservations about the movement, its relationship with other        |
   |    Islamists is also complicated.                                      |
   +------------------------------------------------------------------------+

   Despite its political influence in Turkey, the Gulen movement has a low
   profile in the West. Jane's charts the group's rise to prominence,
   examines its current activities and assesses its relationship with secular
   Turks, as well as the country's military and other Islamists.

   Turkey's Fethullah Gulen Community (FGC), also known as the Gulen movement
   after its founder and leader Fethullah Gulen, a Turkish Muslim preacher,
   often escapes scholarly attention. Yet no analysis of Turkey is complete
   without due attention paid to the FGC; a highly co-ordinated and
   centralised movement with many well-positioned followers, known as
   Gulenists. Some Turks deridingly refer to the movement as 'F-type' or
   'Fethullahci' (followers of Fethullah).

   According to FGC members, the organisation controls millions of dollars
   and has many organisations, including a network of high schools across the
   world that serve as signpost FGC institutions. In addition, the FGC owns
   universities, banks, non-governmental organisations and television
   networks in Turkey, as well as other countries. What is more, the FGC
   appears to have influence over the Turkish National Police (Emniyet),
   including the police's powerful domestic intelligence wing. The FGC's
   political power renders it a taboo topic in Turkey where many people shy
   away from discussing the group publicly. The Turks have a polarised view
   of Gulen: some see him as a political leader such as Iran's Ayatollah
   Khomeini, while others view him as the face of modern, non-violent, even
   reformed Islam. This and the FGC's political power makes the organisation
   worthy of closer scrutiny in an effort to map out its structure, global
   reach, message, political influence and future in Turkey.

  Background

   The FGC is considered a modernist off-shoot of Sufi Nurcu tariqat
   (religious order) in Turkey. The movement aims to transform Turkey through
   conservative social values. Many academics describe the FGC as a neo-Nurcu
   movement. Gulen, a spiritual and charismatic preacher who has been known
   to cry during interviews and public sermons, is the founder and leader of
   his own branch of Nurcu Islam. The movement emerged in the late 1970s in
   Izmir, coalescing around Gulen's personality in the late 1980s in big
   cities. Initially, Gulen espoused a tactical view of democracy in Turkey,
   saying that in order to reach the ideal Muslim society "every method and
   path is acceptable [including] lying to people". Gulen added that in
   reaching the movement's final goal, "service on behalf of the movement
   would be discreet and quiet", and that this stance constituted the
   "founding philosophy of his movement".

   In the late 1990s, Gulen clashed with Turkey's secular democracy. At this
   time, Turkey had a brief experience with Islamist government. The Welfare
   Party (Refah Partisi: RP) came to power in a short-lived coalition
   government in 1996. Subsequently, Turkey's secular forces, including the
   military, forced the RP to step down. Following the demise of the RP
   government, Turkey cracked down against Islamist movements and tariqats,
   including FGC, bringing a court case against Gulen on grounds that "he was
   working to overthrow secular government in Turkey".

   In 1998, Gulen was forced to leave Turkey to avoid prosecution on charges
   he was involved with anti-secular activities. He took refuge in the United
   States and starting running his organisation from the suburbs of New
   Jersey and then Pennsylvania through senior aides in various outlets he
   controlled.

   In the US, Gulen's message subsequently went through a significant
   transformation. He rejected some of his earlier rhetoric on dismantling
   the secular state, turning instead to emphasising tolerance in Islam, as
   well as interfaith dialogue with Judaism and Christianity, and shunned
   violence. In the late 1990s, he told his male followers their wives could
   uncover their hair. While part of the Islamic law, he said this issue of
   head covering was futurat (among the details of Islamic jurisprudence).
   This stance widened his appeal for the liberal Turks who thought of the
   Gulen movement as a more tolerable version of Islamic fundamentalism.
   Although the majority of Gulenist women continued to cover their heads,
   this verdict has sweetened his appeal for students in Gulen's network of
   schools across the world, as well as middle-class conservatives.

  Global network

   The precise number of FGC members is difficult to estimate since some
   publicly deny affinity or membership with the movement. They do not
   mention his name openly, but may refer to him as 'hocaefendi' (master
   hodja) or 'he'.

   Although the movement emerged from Turkey, today it has a global reach.
   Gulen continues to live in the US and obtained US residency in 2008. Since
   Gulen's arrival there, FGC is known to have supported the election
   campaigns of various US politicians. It has also sought their blessing by
   asking them to appear at FGC events. For instance, Hillary Clinton is
   known to have attended FGC events in the US, including a September 2007
   Ramadan breakfast organised by the Gulenist Turkish Cultural Center in New
   York City. The FGC's new found base in the US has earned Washington enmity
   inside Turkey, with some secular Turks, including many in the military,
   concluding that the movement is backed by the US as a form of moderate
   Islam to dilute Turkish secularism. Gulen and other FGC leaders'
   freewheeling presence in the US is a major source of anti-US feeling
   within the ranks of the Turkish military.

   The FGC exerts influence globally through means of modern communication,
   including its flagship newspaper and television networks, respectively
   Zaman (Time), and Samanyolu (Milky Way) - galactic, cosmic and temporal
   names are tell-tale signs of FGC institutions. The organisation has
   numerous other media arms, including Ebru TV (Water Marble) in the US, as
   well as Mehtap (Moonlight) TV and Cihan (Universe) news agency, and
   Today's Zaman, an English language newspaper that mirrors Zaman and serves
   as the FGC's window to the English-speaking world. Zaman also publishes
   local versions in a number of countries, including the US, Turkmenistan,
   Bulgaria and Azerbaijan.

   Many organisations fall under the FGC umbrella, including hundreds of
   boarding schools in Turkey, as well as the US, Europe, Central Asia, the
   Middle East and Africa. These schools provide full scholarships, excellent
   facilities and high-quality education, training the children of the elite
   in the third world and the children of FGC members in the West. In Turkey,
   the schools perform both functions. The movement also has universities,
   including Fatih University in Istanbul, and Virginia International
   University in the US, a 'Gulen-sourced' school according to an FGC
   website. The schools represent the movement's charity arm, an FGC
   trademark. Its schools and other public arms are funded by regular
   donations from FGC members.

   In Turkey, the FGC appeals to students across various educational
   institutions. First come high schools, including elite FGC Samanyolu High
   School in Ankara, which offer scholarships and stipends. At least some of
   these students are known to join the FGC. The movement also runs cramming
   schools, such as Turkey-wide FEM and ANAFEN, preparing mostly poorer high
   school students and FGC sympathiser students through the necessary
   cramming practice for college entrance exams. This is done often in
   dormitories and again with full scholarships. Graduates of the cramming
   schools usually go on to become lifelong sympathisers, members or workers
   of the movement. The FGC also runs boarding homes (Isikevi-light houses)
   for poorer college and high school students who are then provided with
   stipends and scholarships. The FGC schools, cramming schools and Isikevis
   fall under a centralised organisation. The FGC schools and educational
   endeavours are academically thriving environments and also provide a soft
   passageway into the movement. Teachers and FGC member students extoll the
   virtues of Islam in non-Muslim countries and virtues of the FGC movement
   in Muslim countries, pulling in more members.

   A number of wealthy Turks, and many mid- and small-sized business owners
   organised under the Turkish Industrialists Confederation (TUSKON), form
   the FGC's business arm. The movement also has financial institutions,
   including Bank Asya that provides interest-free Islamic banking; insurance
   company Isik Sigorta (Light Insurance); and investment arms, including
   Asya Finans (Asia Finance), a finance firm. FGC has think-tanks, including
   Washington-based Rumi Forum, and is known to be supporting programmes on
   Turkey at a number of prominent Washington think-tanks. Finally, the FGC
   has global charities, such as Kimse Yok mu (Is Anybody Out There), which
   provides disaster relief and religious giving across the world.

   It is possible to think of the FGC structure as three concentric circles
   comprising of sympathisers, members and workers. The outermost circle has
   sympathisers, including people who attend weekly discussion sessions held
   at FGC homes and others, such as the high school students, who receive FGS
   services and charity benefits. The middle circle has members, including
   businessmen whose donations support the outer circle's activities, as well
   as pay for the salaries of the inner circle. This inner circle includes
   workers, such as teachers, journalists, lobbyists and executives who work
   in FGC schools, think-tanks, lobby and business groups, and media arms,
   among others. The workers are mostly committed members of the movement.
   Some of them seem to have joined the FGC through the group's cramming
   schools, high schools and boarding homes in the 1970s and the 1980s when
   Gulen was a preacher in Turkish mosques. Known as the Altin Nesil (Golden
   Generation), this group can be considered Gulenist disciples.

   The three circles are enmeshed into one another. For example, FGC
   businesses advertise heavily on FGC media, while FGC-owned media runs
   human interest stories and profiles of FGC sympathisers, businesses and
   schools. FGC members and sympathisers take holidays in FGC-owned hotels
   and shop at FGC-owned stores and invest in FGC financial institutions.
   Graduates of FGC cramming schools funded by FGC businesses often serve as
   teachers in FGC schools overseas. Finally, FGC media, funded by FGC
   businesses, reacts sharply to any criticism directed at Fethullah Gulen.

  One voice, two messages

   The FGC rose to global prominence in the aftermath of the 11 September
   2001 attacks in the US. The movement takes pride in promoting tolerance
   towards and inter-faith dialogue with Christianity and Judaism, which are
   considered by Muslims as faiths of the book - religions recognised by
   Islam.

   The FGC relays its brand of tolerance and ecumenical dialogue through
   conferences at prestigious institutions, FGC and non-FGC alike, as well as
   coverage in FGC media and through meetings between Gulen and Jewish and
   Christian religious leaders. The FGC takes the Islam-wide characteristic
   of tolerance towards Christianity and Judaism, marketing it as an
   exclusive trademark of the movement.

   The FGC's three messages of ecumenism, interfaith dialogue and tolerance
   matured after Gulen left Turkey for the US to escape political
   persecution. Since then, the movement has explicitly stayed away from
   anti-Americanism, a telltale sign of Islamist movements globally. The
   movement's three messages, communicated through English language outlets
   such as Today's Zaman have been welcome in the West, including in the US
   and the UK. The FGC promotes inter-faith dialogue and ecumenism also in
   Turkey, sometimes to the ire of hardline Islamists.

   However, the movement's English language outlets serving the West, such as
   Today's Zaman, and Turkish language press outlets serving Turkey, such as
   Zaman, have different editorial lines on the FGC messages. While Today's
   Zaman stays loyal to this message, Zaman often strays away from it. For
   example, on 15 October 2008, Zaman ran a news story alleging that the
   current global economic downturn started when USD40 billion was
   transferred from Lehman Brothers to Israel. Although Zaman and Today's
   Zaman are twin papers, this important allegation did not find room in
   Today's Zaman. In this regard, examples hinting at two FGC voices, an
   external one for the West, and an internal one for Turkey, are plenty. On
   8 November 2008, Zaman ran a story about a Jewish family in Istanbul that
   has converted to Islam. The story suggested that the family had been
   painfully ostracised from the Turkish Jewish community, casting that
   community in an unsympathetic light. That story was also not featured in
   Today's Zaman read in the West.

   Likewise, the two papers diverged in their coverage of the 2008-09
   Israel-Gaza war. On 31 December 2008, Zaman ran a story with the headline:
   Children hauling garbage are being targeted with missiles, while this
   headline or its story was entirely missing from Today's Zaman on the same
   day, or subsequent days.

  FGC, AKP and the military

   Traditionally, the FGC has supported many political parties and stayed
   non-partisan. However, since 2001, following the establishment of the
   Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi: AKP), the
   movement has provided solid support to the AKP. While this has led many
   people to associate the movement with the AKP, that appears to be a false
   premise. Although the AKP and FGC both stand for socially conservative
   values and mix Islam and politics, they are competing political
   organisations. Moreover, there seems to be at least some ideological
   competition between the AKP and FGC. The AKP cadres view the FGC's
   singular emphasis of ecumenism and inter-faith dialogue as insincere,
   while FGC members view the AKP as a coarse movement.

   Still, the goal of holding political power in Turkey unites the FGC and
   the AKP in an alliance of convenience. For analytical purposes, it could
   be said that currently the AKP and the FGC are in a symbiotic
   co-existence. The AKP provides the FGC with an important asset, a ruling
   party that facilitates the appointment of FGC members to key bureaucratic
   positions, as well as the sheltering of FGC institutions. For example,
   during his term as Turkey's foreign minister, President Abdullah Gul
   issued a classified circular to Turkish diplomatic posts, encouraging them
   to attend events at FGC institutions and help such organisations.
   Meanwhile, the FGC provides the AKP with money, media support and voter
   mobilisation.

   Since the AKP came to power in 2002, FGC members and sympathisers are
   known to have been appointed to a number of important positions in Turkish
   government, including ministries, as well as key positions in the Turkish
   police, while many lower level and non-strategic positions in Emniyet
   remain in the hands of non-FGC people. In this regard, some in Turkey
   believe the FGC controls the technologically apt intelligence branch of
   the police, as well as the strategic personnel and overseas relations
   departments. The FGC's influence in the Emniyet and a significant part of
   Turkish domestic intelligence apparatus is a contentious issue,
   challenging the movement's claim to be a spiritual organisation. Critics
   and opponents of the FGC and the AKP, even some top brass in the Turkish
   military, fear that they are under surveillance by the FGC through the
   Turkish police. Giving credit to such claims, intelligence leaks involving
   the Turkish military often start in FGC-owned newspapers, such as Zaman.
   Meanwhile, some alarmist secular Turks assert without proof that the FGC
   is funded by the CIA to promote moderate Islam in Turkey as well as in
   Central Eurasia - it is interesting to note that in 2007, Russia started a
   crackdown on FGC infrastructure for its 'extremist' nature.

   The FGC has a tense relationship with the Turkish military. Despite its
   presence in the Emniyet and across the Turkish bureaucracy, the FGC lacks
   representation in the Turkish armed forces. This is because the Turkish
   military bi-annually reviews its staff, discharging personnel associated
   with Islamist groups and tariqats, most notably the FGC. The military's
   hardnosed attitude to FGC members has turned the FGC into its critic.
   Since 2007, FGC-owned media has been lambasting the Turkish military. This
   media has been prominently featuring allegations against the military, as
   well as leaks from Emniyet about the likely involvement of retired and
   active duty military personnel in a coup plot against the AKP government
   in the Ergenekon case, an investigation of the clandestine nationalist
   Ergenekon organisation that is currently being reviewed in a Turkish
   court. In July 2008, using intelligence files leaked from Emniyet, Zaman
   and other FGC-owned media gave prominent coverage to Ergenekon-related
   news, implicating the military's hand in the alleged coup plot.

  Turkey's third force

   Lately, while pro-AKP newspapers have shunned criticising the military,
   the FGC-owned media continues to take issue with it. This suggests
   diverging views of the Turkish military between the AKP and FGC. Whereas
   common wisdom suggests thinking of Turkey as a bipolar world of the
   'Islamist block' led by the AKP and the 'secularist block' led by the
   military, it might be useful to think of Turkey as a three-pronged country
   composed of the military, the AKP and the FGC.

   The consolidation of political and economic power in the FGC's hands and
   the movement's evolving relationship with the AKP and the Turkish military
   make such an analytical view more plausible. With its own growing base,
   the FGC might soon feel comfortable to rethink its seven-year symbiotic
   relationship with the AKP. The FGC seems to want a bigger share of Turkey.
   The movement will keep confronting the military more vigorously until it
   manages to get its members and sympathisers into the military.

   On the other hand, there are at least some signs that on the eve of
   Turkey's nationwide local elections to be held in March 2009, the FGC
   might extend limited support to parties other than the AKP in an effort to
   re-diversify its political base as a choice political strategy should the
   AKP slip politically. However, this does not mean the FGC will burn
   bridges with the AKP. Rather, looking at the benefits of a symbiotic
   relationship with a powerful political party, the movement will continue
   to support the AKP. In fact, in the unlikely event of a future showdown
   between the military and the AKP, the FGC would quickly close ranks with
   the AKP as it did in 2007 when the military issued a warning against the
   AKP on its website.

   The FGC is perhaps the best organised grass roots movement in Turkey.
   Moreover, the group has a vast social and economic organisation,
   intelligence assets, a global network and a message that appeals to the
   West, even if that message appears to be mostly for international
   consumption. The FGC is effectively a third force in Turkish politics, and
   the world will hear a lot about it in the years to come.       
</description>
    <date>2009-11-18 01:35:26</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-07 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1532300_gulen-movement-turkey-s-third-power-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1537069</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - TURKEY - some notes so far
</title>
    <description>   no worries, Bayless. Gulenist guys loved me and I'm sure they will be
   happy to cover my wedding expenses. The only problem is that you won't be
   able to drink alcohol.

   Bayless Parsley wrote:

     that means it's going to be expensive

     Reva Bhalla wrote:

       dude im going to plan their wedding
       ----- Original Message -----
       From: "Bayless Parsley" &lt;bayless.parsley@stratfor.com&gt;
       To: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
       Cc: "emre dogru" &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
       Sent: Wednesday, March 10, 2010 6:43:10 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada
       Central
       Subject: Re: INSIGHT - TURKEY - some notes so far

       oh and i'm sure she is just thrilled the emre pasha is road trippin'
       it with some ethnic looking american girl

       Reva Bhalla wrote:

         haha, the Albanian chick is super cute, btw. Emre Pasha has good
         taste
         ----- Original Message -----
         From: "Bayless Parsley" &lt;bayless.parsley@stratfor.com&gt;
         To: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;, "emre dogru"
         &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
         Sent: Wednesday, March 10, 2010 6:39:19 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada
         Central
         Subject: Re: INSIGHT - TURKEY - some notes so far

         one question: can the power of stratfor get emre laid if he ever
         ditches his albanian chick?

         Reva Bhalla wrote:

           a little anecdote i forgot to add. while we were waiting for our
           meeting at the prime minister's building, there was a young guy in
           the waiting room who was waiting for his boss who was meeting with
           Erdogan's advisor. the guy used to work for an MP and is in the
           parliament scene in Ankara. when he found out we were from
           Stratfor, he got really excited and told us about how he and his
           friend sent a letter to the parliament's head of information or
           whatever as a petition for all Turkish MPs to get Stratfor
           subscriptions. Obviously he's a big fan and this is something we
           can pursue as an institution deal. (getting the appropriate
           contact info for this).  At the AKP think tank we visited in
           Ankara today, they also told us clearly 'we know the power of
           Stratfor'. Everyone here wants to influence us one way or another.
           Turkey needs a voice in DC. THey're hoping it's us.
           ----- Original Message -----
           From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
           To: "analysts" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
           Sent: Wednesday, March 10, 2010 6:24:34 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada
           Central
           Subject: INSIGHT - TURKEY - some notes so far

           Going to sum up a few meetings so far. i will go into more detail
           later when it's not 230am and not exhausted from traveling 12 hrs
           traveling between istanbul and ankara.  Emre will fill in any
           other details I've missed. We will be meeting next with two
           Turkish energy experts (send questions if you have them -- we need
           good turkey energy sources), CEO of Sabanci group (one of the
           Istanbul giants), TUSKON business association (Gulenist) and then
           on the opposite side of the political spectrum, the head of Dogan
           media, then Isbank (also a bastion for the nationalists and
           Istanbul giants)
           For the first part of my trip, Emre and I have been hanging out
           with hardcore Gulenists. We started at Zaman headquarters (Zaman
           is main Gulenist newspaper and media voice for AKP, Today's Zaman
           is the English-language daily). We met with the Editor in Chief of
           Today's Zaman and the head of Cihan news agency (which runs their
           major media outlets). Cihan is now the most powerful media outlet
           in Turkey. It used to be Hurriyet, dominated by the nationalists,
           but they're under attack (will get to that later). 
           They explicitly represented themselves as part of the 'jamaah', or
           the 'movement', as they like to call it.  The way they represent
           their agenda is that this is about democratization in Turkey,
           human rights, world peace, etc. The guy was actually quoting
           Western liberal philosophers trying to show how much in common
           they have with them in respect for these democratic values, and
           this is what's essential for Turkey's candidacy in the EU. The
           irony, they claim, is that people think because they're Islamist,
           they're fundamentalist and not modern, whereas the authoritarians
           (in their view) ie. the military, are the ones who are seen in the
           West as modern. This is what frustrates them.  So, by promoting
           this peace, love and democracy campaign, they say they are
           fighting for constitutional reform, business and political
           pluralism, civilian control over military, judicial reform, etc.
           That there is no secret agenda.  (my note -- what Emre and I
           noticed is that in all our meetings with Gulenists, they recited
           almost the same lines verbatim. they're very well rehearsed in
           selling this model. At the root of this, however, is power. The
           established elite, ie. the military, Istanbul business giants,
           etc. are being threatened by an Islamist political vehicle fueled
           by the Anatolian small-to-med business class.)  Both of the
           sources talked about how they need to raise an Anatolian business
           class to undermine the Istanbul giants (they essentially
           articulated our own theory, which was cool.).
           We discussed the Ergenekon case a lot, which gave them plenty of
           opportunity to bash the military for being so irresponsible and
           disrespectful to the civilian government. What struck us most is
           how they claim they have allies within the military, people high
           up in rank, who are disaffected with the establishment and are
           WILLING to provide leaks to the Gulenist newspapers and
           intelligence services that support these coup allegations. We
           heard the exact same story the next day at a Gulenist organization
           that we visited. More likely this is an allusion to their
           successful penetration of the military (have sent more detailed
           insight on this previously)
           We also discussed the Gulen schools that are spreading across the
           globe, expanding Turkish influence. Of course these are the
           schools with teh best resources, facilities. Students will learn
           how to speak Turkish, the national anthem, how to be the 'right
           kind of Muslim', etc. In essence, it buys them loyalty. We are
           still working on getting a complete database of Gulenist schools.
            They claim that have more than 2,000 in 200 countries so far.
           Today's Zaman editor in chief also talked about his experience at
           Turkish Daily News, which is now owned by Dogan group (which owns
           Hurriyet and is under attack now by AKP/Gulen). He said at TDN the
           tax evasion was so obvious and went into detail about how they did
           it and how his salary was parceled out to allow them to write off
           most of it.  this story was used by him to claim that they at
           Zaman didn't start this media war with Hurriyet, it was Hurriyet
           that started it because they were involved in all this bad
           business, etc. 
           The next day, Emre and I visited a major Gulenist organization
           that puts together these massive conferences all over the world to
           promote their agenda, raise funds, recruits, etc. Their office is
           in a very expensive part of Istanbul. They've got the best
           facilities, this beautiful  theater system. In short, they've got
           money. Now you have to ask yourself, where is the money coming
           from? the head of the organization that met with us and
           propagandized us kept talking about all these peace love and
           harmony efforts to spread the Gulen ideas and democratize Turkey,
           spread Turkey's influence, etc.  But their funding comes mainly
           from co-opting the Anatolian business class.  Again we heard about
           how they have allies within the military 'brave' enough to issue
           leaks on their coup plots.
           After getting a very long tour of the entire building, top to
           bottom, they sat us down for a Gulen propaganda film in their
           theater. Emre sitting in the middle of the Gulen guy and I. The
           Gulen guy is so overcome by the speech shown in the video by
           Fethullah Gulen, that he starts crying. Meanwhile im trying really
           hard not to laugh.  It was an interesting experience.
           That evening I had dinner with the editor in chief of Hurriyet,
           way on the other side of the political spectrum. He gave his
           version of the tax evasion case, said that Zaman and Gulen started
           the whole thing and that Bulent Kenes (Zaman editor who we met
           with) was part of the problem, he profiteered from that system. In
           short, it's very, very tense.  The night I met him, he had just
           found out that Zaman was suing them for running an article by
           Soner Cagaptay, who Gulenists are trying extremely hard to defame
           (it's very obvious).  This source confirmed what I have heard
           earlier about Gulen penetration of military and how they win the
           support of the Anatolian business class by giving them a lucrative
           place in the supply chain. He gave an example of the Gulen school
           influence -- he met with the Algerian ambassador - trained in a
           Gulen school, spoke fluent Turkish, extremely friendly to the
           Turkish government. A very well-oiled system.
           Today, Emre and I took a road trip to Ankara. We first visited the
           USAK think tank, which was opened by Abdullah Gul (the president)
           in 2009. THey also have a gorgeous office building. The head of
           the think tank started out by telling us what Turkish 'soft power'
           looks like. He said that during the Cold War times, Turkey looked
           at the Arab world in disgust, like they were inferiors. Now Turkey
           is paying attention to its neighborhood, wants to stabilize,e tc
           (the Davutoglu line).  What was most interesting is when he talked
           about how Turkey already has plenty to work from in the MIddle
           East. He said, Syrians, Egyptians, Iraqis, even Iranians --
           they're ALL TURKS. He says they look like Turks, they have TUrkish
           relatives from Ottoman history, they want to be like Turks, they
           love Turkish lifestyle, etc etc. He said that there is 'no such
           thing as an Arab' or Arab nationalism under Nasser. They're all
           Turks and Egypt is not a power to be taken seriously.  (if any
           Arab were in that room, their head would have probably
           exploded). they're nothing. Israel is also nothing compared to
           Turkish economic, regional, political, population power.   He went
           on to explain how Turkey can solve everyone's problems, by opening
           borders, removing visa restrictions and improving trade with
           Egypt, Syria, Iran, etc. A key part of this strategy is also to
           benefit the AKP's strategy of raising its own business class ---
           the Turkish merchants who benefit from increased trade in the
           Mideast are the Antaolian businessmen, and AKP is making sure of
           that. 
           This AKP think tank is in all the big Turkish delegations. He said
           that in their last trip to Syria, Bashar tells them he wants to
           open the border and wants to democratize (on the latter, yeah
           freakin right). He also claims that after their meetings, the
           members of the Syrian business council were practically begging
           them to stay because they said once the Turks in that delegation
           left, everything would go back to the same. Overall, we got the
           impression from several of these meetings that Turkey is extremely
           focused on the Syria track and increasingly more so on the
           Egyptian track. They expect and claim these countries welcome the
           Turks with open arms.  They also couldn't stop talkinga bout how
           Turkish television programs over satellite are spreading os much
           influence throughout the mideast and shows them how to be modern
           Turks. Saudi Arabia apparently has banned or is trying to ban
           these shows. I myself have seen how Turkish soap operas are
           extremely popular in the mideast.
           He confirmed our analysis that Russia has no intention of seeing
           through a Turkey-Armenia deal - it wouldn't make any sense. He
           says the AKP leadership was so naive to think that the talks would
           go anywhere. Now it's time to turn back to Azerbaijan and Georgia
           and fix things with them. AFter all, he says, Azerbaijan doesn't
           want to become another dependent of Russia's. 
           One other interesting thing he said about the Russian factor in
           those Armenia talks was that Turkey really expected the US to get
           more involved. He said Russia of course was an obstacle, we knew
           that. But, the US could have made concessions to Russia to allow
           this Armenia deal through. In other words, they expected the US to
           be part of a grand bargain in which the US would recognize that
           Turkey-Armenia relationship would bring all kinds of benefits, ie.
           strengthen an ally in the Caucasus, take care of the genocide
           issue, etc.  Turkey also expected US to pay a price to Russia for
           this project. Here is where there appears to be a
           misunderstanding, especially since this Armenia-Turkey deal is
           likely very low on US priorities when it comes to how to bargain
           with Russia. 
           We then met Erdogan's chief advisor at the prime minister's
           building.  This guy is also a Gulenist, but not openly so. The
           Hurriyet people say he is and Emre and i noticed the way he was
           talking on the phone and using certain phrases marked him as one.
           We got a lot of the Davutoglu diplomatic line from him (he's a
           very smooth and articulate guy, as Kamran knows). He said that
           there needs to be more time in the Iran negotiations and that
           things only got really serious in the past 6-7 months. US can't
           expect all this to happen overnight. He claims taht prior to the
           Iranian Revolution anniversary in February, that Iran actually
           agreed to the Turkey fuel swap deal. When they took the deal to
           the US, he says the US was totally unprepared then came back and
           said they can't do it. Turkey was pissed.  They feel that this, in
           addition to the Armenia issue and everything else, just goes to
           show how the Obama administration doesn't have strong political
           leadership (Bush at least fought the armenia resolution) and that
           the US doesn't understand or appreciate Turkey's role in the
           region. They feel betrayed, to use his words. He says it's
           hypocritical for US to get mad if Turkey talks to Russia when
           everyone applauds US and Russia negotiating. He says the reason
           Turkey is so active in the east is because they're actually
           receptive to them there (hint, hint - go tell your government to
           wake up and appreciate us).  He, like the guy at the AKP Usak
           think tank, talked about how Turkey needs the US as a partner in
           this region. US just needs to recognize it. 

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-03-11 08:39:14</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-03 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1537069_re-insight-turkey-some-notes-so-far-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bayless.parsley@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1541767</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT-MEXICO-US special forces in Mexico-US714
</title>
    <description>   Four months ago this was hinted at by one of my sources, as a near future
   event. Likely USMC snake-eaters (SpecOps), judging by my source's
   information at the time.
   "There is nothing more necessary than good intelligence to frustrate a
   designing enemy, &amp; nothing requires greater pains to obtain." -- George
   Washington
   On Jun 14, 2011, at 5:38 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     Source Code: US714
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security Source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Officer with direct oversight of
     border investigations
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     U.S. special operations forces are currently in Mexico.  Small scale
     joint ops with Mexico's, but they are there.
</description>
    <date>2011-06-15 17:19:34</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 05:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1541767_re-insight-mexico-us-special-forces-in-mexico-us714-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>victoria.allen@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1542008</id>
    <title>[CT] Fwd: [OS] CHINA/CSM/CT- Cisco Poised to Help China Keep an Eye
 on Its	Citizens
</title>
    <description>   Maybe with talk of Trapwire technology and such we can provide some
   insight on this.  The addition of the cameras is not new, I think i had it
   in the bullets sometime earlier this year. 

   -------- Original Message --------

    Subject: [OS] CHINA/CSM/CT- Cisco Poised to Help China Keep an Eye on Its 
             Citizens                                                         
       Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2011 22:52:54 -0500                                  
       From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;                           
   Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                    
         To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                    

       * JULY 5, 2011

   Censorship Inc.
   Cisco Poised to Help China Keep an Eye on Its Citizens
   Read more:
   http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304778304576377141077267316.html#ixzz1RCQsajlK
   By LORETTA CHAO in Beijing and DON CLARK in San Francisco
   [CISCO] Getty Images

   Cameras in Beijing's Tiananmen Square. U.S. firms can sell surveillance
   gear in China, but not equipment that is used only for crime control.

   Western companies including Cisco Systems Inc. are poised to help build an
   ambitious new surveillance project in China-a citywide network of as many
   as 500,000 cameras that officials say will prevent crime but that
   human-rights advocates warn could target political dissent.
   [CISCO_p1]

   The system, being built in the city of Chongqing over the next two to
   three years, is among the largest and most sophisticated
   video-surveillance projects of its kind in China, and perhaps the world.
   Dubbed "Peaceful Chongqing," it is planned to cover a half-million
   intersections, neighborhoods and parks over nearly 400 square miles, an
   area more than 25% larger than New York City.

   The project sheds light on how Western tech companies sell their wares in
   China, the Middle East and other places where there is potential for the
   gear to be used for political purposes and not just safety. The products
   range from Internet-censoring software to sophisticated networking gear.
   China in particular has drawn criticism for treating political dissent as
   a crime and has a track record of using technology to suppress it.

   An examination of the Peaceful Chongqing project by The Wall Street
   Journal shows Cisco is expected to supply networking equipment that is
   essential to operating large and complicated surveillance systems,
   according to people familiar with the deal.

   The U.S. has prohibited export of crime-control products to China (for
   instance, fingerprinting equipment) ever since Beijing's deadly 1989
   Tiananmen Square crackdown. But the U.S. restrictions don't prohibit sale
   of technologies such as cameras that can be used in many ways-to tame,
   say, either traffic jams or democracy marches. This loophole troubles some
   critics. There is no indication that Cisco is selling products customized
   for crime control.
   More

       * Cisco Faces Lawsuits, Criticism Over Past China Activities

   Western companies' pursuit of sales in China underscores a fundamental
   question for businesses and policy makers alike: Should companies be held
   accountable if foreign governments use their products for political
   suppression?

   Cisco was brought in to the Chongqing project by Chinese security company
   Hikvision Digital Technology Co., the project's main contractor, Hikvision
   officials and others say. It is unclear whether Cisco's participation has
   been finalized, although one person familiar with the matter says it is
   close.

   Officials at Cisco, based in San Jose, Calif., declined to discuss its
   possible involvement in detail. A company spokesman stressed that Cisco
   "hasn't sold video cameras or video-surveillance solutions in any of our
   public infrastructure projects in China."

   The company has previously said-including in a June blog post by Cisco's
   general counsel, Mark Chandler-that the company strictly abides by the
   Tiananmen export controls and doesn't supply any gear to China that is
   "customized in any way" to facilitate repressive uses.

   View Full Image
   CISCO_jmp
   CISCO_jmp
   CISCO_jmp

   Cisco is the world's biggest maker of networking equipment, which includes
   routing and switching systems that send data between computers and connect
   systems to the Internet. The company has stirred controversy in the past
   for its China dealings.

   The Chongqing project is also attracting interest from other U.S.
   companies, including Alabama software maker Intergraph Corp.
   Hewlett-Packard Co. also expects to bid on part of the project, according
   to a senior H-P executive.

   The people familiar with the matter said H-P may be looking to supply
   servers or storage equipment for Peaceful Chongqing.

   Asked about concerns about political use of the system, Todd Bradley, an
   executive vice president who oversees H-P's China strategy, said in an
   interview last week in China, "We take them at their word as to the
   usage." He added, "It's not my job to really understand what they're going
   to use it for. Our job is to respond to the bid that they've made."
   Censorship Inc.

       * Mideast Uses Western Tools to Battle the Skype Rebellion 6/1/2011
       * Iran Vows to Unplug Internet 5/28/2011
       * U.S. Products Help Block Mideast Web 3/28/2011

   Another possible participant in the Chongqing project is Intergraph, a
   Huntsville, Ala., company that made a bid through Cisco to provide
   customized software for the effort, said Bob Scott, head of Intergraph's
   security group. It is unclear if the company, a unit of Sweden's Hexagon
   AB, will ultimately be hired.

   Although sale of surveillance technology to repressive nations is
   permissible, some critics have harsh words for companies that do so. "The
   business community is only hearing what it wants to hear and disregarding
   the rest," said Rep. Frank Wolf, a Virginia Republican who co-chairs the
   Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, a nonpartisan rights group made up of
   members of Congress.

   Chongqing, a sprawling metropolis in southwestern China, is one of the
   most populous cities in the nation with an urban population of at least 12
   million. The hillside Yangtze River port, famous for spicy hot-pot and
   often covered in fog, was China's capital from 1938 to 1945. Today, it is
   being developed as a gateway to the country's western hinterland.

   Chongqing has gained prominence the past two years because of its
   Communist Party chief, Bo Xilai, a rising political star who has led a
   controversial crackdown on organized crime that some lawyers have
   criticized for what they say are violations of legal due process.

   View Full Image
   CISCO
   Getty Images

   Chongqing's party chief, Bo Xilai, led a controversial crime crackdown.
   CISCO
   CISCO

   Mr. Bo declined to comment. He is expected to become one of China's top
   leaders next year by being appointed to China's Politburo Standing
   Committee, the nation's top decision-making body.

   Chongqing's government has said it plans to invest more than $800 million
   of its own in building the Peaceful Chongqing system. Another $1.6 billion
   is coming from other, unspecified sources, the city has said. Hikvision's
   president, Hu Yangzhong, said in an interview that government funds would
   go toward building the central surveillance network and installing a
   portion of the cameras, while more cameras would be installed by owners of
   residences, office buildings and others-all of which would be linked to
   the network.

   Video-surveillance systems can serve many purposes and are routinely used
   for benign purposes by cities world-wide to fight crime and ease traffic.
   Still, civil libertarians raise concerns including in the U.S. that the
   technology can invade privacy and is poorly regulated.

   Human-rights advocates say Chinese police have used surveillance footage
   to identify people in political protests. Jailed Chinese artist-activist
   Ai Weiwei, who was released last month, complained before he was
   apprehended on April 3 that police were using cameras to monitor him.

   Corinna-Barbara Francis, a researcher at Amnesty International, said
   surveillance footage has been used to identify and apprehend peaceful
   protesters in China, including in Xinjiang and Tibet. "In China there's
   ample evidence that they use" video surveillance "to crack down and then
   criminalize activity which should not be criminalized," Ms. Francis said.

   The Chongqing government declined to comment, as did China's Ministry of
   Public Security and the State Council Information Office. Chinese leaders
   have long argued that maintaining social stability and economic growth
   takes precedence over political rights.

   Hikvision's president, Mr. Hu, said he believes the project's goal is to
   cut crime, not target political dissidents. "China has a very serious
   public-security problem," he said in an interview last week. He blamed an
   epidemic of robbery and other crimes on the flood of poor migrants into
   China's cities and a growing wealth gap.

   Mr. Hu said Chongqing's new surveillance system will be tied in to an
   information network that Cisco is already building in the city, where
   Cisco has announced a high-profile alliance under a program it calls
   Smart+Connected Communities-an initiative under which Cisco consults with
   governments around the world to use technology to tackle civic problems
   such as transportation, healthcare and education.

   According to the Chongqing government's website, Cisco Chief Executive
   John Chambers told the city's mayor in a meeting last year that he hoped
   the Smart+Connected project could create a "model in Chongqing which can
   be popularized in China."

   Executives at Western companies say they must weigh the possibility that
   technology could be misused against the business risks of missing out on a
   lucrative market. "We do have concerns," said Intergraph's Mr. Scott. "On
   the other hand, we want to do business there," he said, noting that the
   company's software is also used for environmental and other projects in
   China.

   "We're just the technology platform," he said, adding that it is the
   responsibility of the buyers "to meet and adhere to laws and policies" of
   their jurisdictions. Ultimately, Intergraph has "to manage the risk
   against the gain."

   In an April interview with the Journal, Bill Stuntz, general manager of
   Cisco's physical-security business, said Cisco gives careful consideration
   to how its products are used in China and doesn't want them to be used for
   repressive purposes. He declined to discuss specific projects in China but
   noted that sales of security equipment there have been expanding rapidly.
   He said Cisco is providing products that include networking equipment and
   servers along with support for some large video-surveillance systems,
   though not video cameras.

   China has become the fastest growing market for surveillance equipment,
   although it isn't yet the biggest, according to IMS Research, a U.K. firm
   that studies the market. The surveillance markets in the U.S. and Europe
   are growing at single-digit rates while surveillance-related revenue in
   China is growing at 23% a year. Surveillance-equipment sales alone, not
   including networking gear or software, totaled $1.7 billion last year.

   Chongqing's government says on its website that its current surveillance
   system is outdated, allowing police to directly tap into just 15,000 of
   the total 300,000 cameras. It wants the new system to be among the world's
   most advanced.

   Mr. Scott of Intergraph says Chongqing wants not only to increase camera
   count, but also to have video managed and delivered to dozens of police
   precincts and other organizations. The project presents challenges "that
   have not really been done anywhere else in the world," he said.

   Mr. Scott said his company spent three years developing software that
   enables multiple agencies to control cameras and also analyzes video feeds
   for unusual situations like fires or the formation of crowds.

   The number of surveillance cameras in Chinese cities including Chongqing
   appears to dwarf that of other cities around the world, though comparisons
   are tough because cities generally don't disclose their camera counts.

   A 2008 report by the state-run Xinhua news agency said Beijing had some
   280,000 cameras in its system. By comparison, privacy advocates in the
   U.S., including the American Civil Liberties Union, estimate Chicago has
   10,000 cameras. The New York Civil Liberties Union estimated in 2009 that
   there were 8,000 cameras in New York.
   -Kersten Zhang, Yoli Zhang, Jason Dean and Cari Tuna contributed to this
   article.

   Write to Loretta Chao at loretta.chao@wsj.com and Don Clark at
   don.clark@wsj.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 05:55:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1542008_-ct-fwd-os-china-csm-ct-cisco-poised-to-help-china-keep-an.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1543329</id>
    <title>Re: G3* - MALAYSIA/CHINA/GV - INTERVIEW-Malaysia's Mahathir: racial
	divide	deepening
</title>
    <description>   Gotta love Mahathir. He's pushing his autobiography and his story to help
   build support for UMNO ahead of elections. This issue about the racial
   divide has actually been a talking point for some time, we've had sources
   emphasizing it since the global recession. Reason being that when the econ
   crunch happend, the govt reverted to its gut instinct policies, which are
   pro-Malay. And now with election approaching, and Najib pushing his "one
   malaysia" idea, the situation is becoming even more contentious for those
   who consider themselves to suffer under pro-Malay policies, namely the
   enterprising ethnic Chinese minority. What Mahathir is doing here is
   drumming up resentment against the Chinese with the hopes of getting more
   malays out to vote, and to vote pro-Malay.

   Unlike Najib, he doesn't have to try to court the Chinese vote. The danger
   is that his statements will alienate Chinese voters that Najib needs. This
   is the predicament and one of the reasons there is a fair chance that
   Najib will not win back a two-thirds super-majority for BN, and will lose
   his job as a result. The broader ramifications if Najib can't get back the
   two-thirds super-majority are weakening of the BN, hence driving Malaysia
   closer to a time in which a real opposition can gain ground.

   On 7/7/11 10:44 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

     INTERVIEW-Malaysia's Mahathir: racial divide deepening

     07 Jul 2011 04:33

     Source: reuters // Reuters

     (Click for a Special Report on Malaysia)

     By Bill Tarrant
     http://www.trust.org/trustlaw/news/interview-malaysias-mahathir-racial-divide-deepening/

     PUTRAJAYA, Malaysia, July 7 (Reuters) - Malaysian Chinese have stopped
     supporting the government because they no longer feel they are getting
     their share of projects, former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad said.

     The former prime minister looked back on his two decades in power in a
     May interview at his office in Putrajaya, the showcase administrative
     capital he built in the 1990s and one of the "mega-projects" that helped
     define his regime.

     Chinese and Indians make up a third of the population but have become
     increasingly unhappy about an official policy that discriminates against
     them in favour of majority Malays.

     "Yes, it's worse now," Mahathir says of the racial divide in Malaysia.
     "During my time, I could rely on Chinese support for my party. Now the
     government is threatened with losing Chinese support."

     He noted that his government two decades ago bowed to Chinese demands to
     have their own schools taught in the Chinese language, and said it
     showed how accommodating it was to minority races. "Despite having a
     national (Malay) language, they don't teach in the national language.
     They can't speak the national language."

     But he acknowledged that having separate schools had become a major
     factor in the racial divide.   

     "We would like them to come to national schools. We even suggested you
     can have your Chinese school, you can have your Tamil school, but why
     not put all three schools on one campus? So they can eat together, they
     can play together, and each gets to know that in the real world they
     have to interact with different races. But the Chinese say no. They say
     if you do that, we won't support the government."

     Mahathir also ensured Chinese support by doling out government contracts
     to them and their Malay partners, which critics said encouraged
     corruption and cronyism. Mahathir's successors shelved big projects to
     pare down a widening fiscal deficit, at the cost of Chinese votes,
     Mahathir said.

     "For some reason or another, the moment I stepped down, all the projects
     were stopped ... When you stop big government projects, a lot of people,
     well their businesses will go down."

     DON'T DEPEND ON FOREIGN INVESTMENT

     The man who made Malaysia part of the "East Asia Miracle" with a massive
     inflow of foreign direct investment doesn't think much of it today.

     "We should not be too dependent on FDI anymore. We've come to the stage
     when locals can invest. They have now the capital. They have the
     technology. They know the market. And I think they can manage big
     industries."

     Mahathir published an 809-page autobiography, "A Doctor in the House",
     in March because he felt "the need to make corrections of the opinions
     and the accusations that were levelled at me".

     The accusation that grated the most, he said, was that he undermined the
     judiciary. The criticism is rooted in a 1988 amendment to the
     constitution that transferred powers over the judiciary to parliament.
     It essentially emasculated judicial independence, and allowed him to get
     judicial backing for his political manoeuvres from then onward.

     Dr. Mahathir could not disguise his contempt for lawyers.

     "A doctor wants to find out about the truth of his patients so he can
     identify a treatment. A lawyer wants to get his client off the hook. And
     even if he knows the client is guilty he is going to find ways and means
     of getting him off the hook." (Editing by John Chalmers)

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com


 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com


 --
 Matt Gertken
 Senior Asia Pacific analyst
 US: +001.512.744.4085
 Mobile: +33(0)67.793.2417
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-08 12:09:05</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 20:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1543329_re-g3-malaysia-china-gv-interview-malaysia-s-mahathir-racial.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>matt.gertken@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1543330</id>
    <title>Re: [OS] CHINA/CSM - Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in fraud
 probe
</title>
    <description>   This is also a pretty good CSM topic.  some college kids running a scam
   through Alibaba (chinese ebay), took in a good amount of money. 

   If we had some good 'redism' related incidents, maybe I could write on
   that, but we'd need some very concise points to make. 

   Let me know what you guys think of this and the surveillance camera topic.

   Jen, I assume that Trapwire is a competitor to Cisco, but I'm not sure.  I
   don't know if trapwire makes the actual cameras or just does the
   analysis.   I won't have real questions till morning. 

   On 7/2/11 11:00 AM, Kevin Stech wrote:

     Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in fraud probe

     02 July 2011 - 08H10 

     http://www.france24.com/en/20110702-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-fraud-probe

      

     AFP - Police have arrested 36 people in southeast China following an
     investigation into fraud on e-commerce site Alibaba.com and other
     websites that duped buyers out of more than $6 million.

      

     Alizila.com, Alibaba's corporate news website, reported earlier this
     week the suspects were detained in Fujian province's Putian city in
     April. John Spelich, the firm's spokesman, confirmed the report to AFP
     on Saturday.

      

     The people arrested allegedly operated a criminal gang that used fake
     IDs to open more than 100 "Gold Supplier" accounts on Alibaba.com. This
     designation is given to those certified as highly trusted suppliers by
     the firm.

      

     This allowed the suspects to pose as legitimate companies selling to
     overseas businesses that source goods through Alibaba.com. Police said
     the alleged scammers also used other international trading websites.

      

     Alibaba.com, based in the eastern city of Hangzhou, has grown into one
     of China's largest Internet companies by matching mainland manufacturers
     and wholesalers with buyers around the world.

      

     But its reputation took a hit in February when the firm announced the
     resignation of chief executive David Wei and head of operations Elvis
     Lee after fraud was uncovered on the site.

      

     Wei and Lee were not involved in the scams but resigned because they
     took responsibility for "systemic breakdowns" that allowed the fraud to
     happen, Alibaba said at the time.

      

     But according to the Alizila report, the fraud was "sometimes abetted by
     Alibaba.com employees." But Spelich said Saturday none of the 36
     arrested worked at the company.

      

     He added the number of fraud complaints received by the website in June
     was down 70 percent from February after Alibaba toughened procedures and
     other security measures.

      

     The report said Alibaba had refunded $1.9 million to those who lost
     their money to the alleged scammers.

     Click here to find out more!

      

     Kevin Stech

     Director of Research | STRATFOR

     kevin.stech@stratfor.com

     +1 (512) 744-4086

      

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 06:18:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1543330_re-os-china-csm-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-in-fraud.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1543637</id>
    <title>Re: Faruk
</title>
    <description>   Emre - let's find some time to talk about Faruk tomorrow/Thursday. I want
   to organize how we're using him and make him most effective.

   Meredith

   On 4/28/11 8:51 AM, Meredith Friedman wrote:

     Got it - thanks Emre.

     --
     Sent via BlackBerry from Cingular Wireless

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Emre Dogru &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: Thu, 28 Apr 2011 07:31:20 -0500 (CDT)
     To: George Friedman&lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
     Cc: Meredith Friedman&lt;mfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Faruk
     Hey George, Faruk says monthly payment is fine. Below is his bank
     account (US Dollar) information. I'm in touch with him as far as
     information gathering is concerned. Please let me know if you need
     anything else on this.
     Mehmet Faruk Demir
     GARANTI BANKASI
     Bank Account Nr: 1145/9099546
     IBAN  TR79 0006 2001 1450 0009 0995 46
     --
     --
     Emre Dogru
     STRATFOR  
     Cell: +90.532.465.7514
     Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
     emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Meredith Friedman
 VP,Communications
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com

 221 W. Sixth Street,
 Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 512 744 4301 - office
 512 426 5107 - cell
</description>
    <date>2011-06-08 18:54:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1543637_re-faruk-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>meredith@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1543869</id>
    <title>CHINA/CSM-6/8- Foxconn ceases compensation in bid to end Chinese
 staff suicides
</title>
    <description>   Foxconn ceases compensation in bid to end Chinese staff suicides

   Text of report in English by official Chinese news agency Xinhua (New
   China News Agency)

   [Xinhua: "Foxconn Ceases Compensation in Bid To End Staff Suicides"]

   Shenzhen, June 8 (Xinhua) - Foxconn, a world-leading electronics
   manufacturer, said on Tuesday that it would no longer offer financial
   compensation to families of employees of its south China factory who
   commit suicide.

   Foxconn, hit by a series of staff suicides this year, said the move was to
   prevent employees from killing themselves in order to receive a large cash
   compensation for their families.

   Ten Foxconn employees in China fell to their deaths so far this
   year.Further, two other employees were injured when they also attempted
   suicide by jumping off the buildings. Most of the victims' families
   received compensation amounting to more than 100,000 yuan (14,662 US
   dollars).

   Though many of the victims came from China's impoverished countryside and
   were said to have become depressed at the time of the tragedies, no
   independent source has disclosed whether any employee had, in fact, sought
   to commit suicide so their families might receive company compensation.

   However, Foxconn officials have said they have "concrete evidence" that
   some of its suicidal employees jumped for that financial concern,
   according to posters seen in busy areas in Foxconn's Shenzhen complex.

   "The act is wrong. Life is precious. To prevent such tragedies, Foxconn is
   to cease releasing compensation other than that provided by law," the
   poster says.

   To stem the dramatic suicide trend, on Sunday the company announced it
   would raise salaries for assembly workers at the Shenzhen plant by 66 per
   cent to 2,000 yuan (293.3 US dollars) per month as of Oct. 1. But it is
   not immediately clear how many of the company's 400,000 Chinese mainland
   workforce would benefit from this wage hike.

   Foxconn, whose parent company is the Taiwan-based Hon Hai Group, is a
   major supplier to Apple, Sony and Nokia.

   During the past few days, angry protesters have rallied on the streets of
   Hong Kong and Taiwan to boycott Apple iphones, claiming Foxconn factory
   employees must endure sweatshop-like working conditions, an allegation
   repeatedly denied by Foxconn management.

   Source: Xinhua news agency, Beijing, in English 1412 gmt 8 Jun 10

   BBC Mon AS1 AsPol tbj

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-06-09 14:28:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1543869_china-csm-6-8-foxconn-ceases-compensation-in-bid-to-end.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>os@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1547942</id>
    <title>Fw: Pentagon
</title>
    <description>   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Sat, 18 Jun 2011 09:47:58 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Pentagon

   FYI: Pentagon incident was generated from a TrapWire report. At least one
   of the MPs involved had just gone through our surveillance detection
   training. This is close-hold for the moment; we're meeting with POC at the
   Pentagon on Monday to review. I'll send you some more details. then. (This
   is just one of several probing/testing SARs were seeing in and around DC
   lately).    M

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-06-18 16:50:36</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1547942_fw-pentagon-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1548232</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] [OS] CHINA/CSM - Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in
 fraud probe
</title>
    <description>   I agree with Alibaba and had flagged that too.  I didn't see the mention
   of trapwire in the story on Cisco.  Maybe I missed it.  Yes, keep me
   posted on any questions and I'll see what my contact can dig up.

   On 7/4/11 11:18 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     This is also a pretty good CSM topic.  some college kids running a scam
     through Alibaba (chinese ebay), took in a good amount of money. 

     If we had some good 'redism' related incidents, maybe I could write on
     that, but we'd need some very concise points to make. 

     Let me know what you guys think of this and the surveillance camera
     topic.

     Jen, I assume that Trapwire is a competitor to Cisco, but I'm not sure. 
     I don't know if trapwire makes the actual cameras or just does the
     analysis.   I won't have real questions till morning. 

     On 7/2/11 11:00 AM, Kevin Stech wrote:

       Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in fraud probe

       02 July 2011 - 08H10 

       http://www.france24.com/en/20110702-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-fraud-probe

        

       AFP - Police have arrested 36 people in southeast China following an
       investigation into fraud on e-commerce site Alibaba.com and other
       websites that duped buyers out of more than $6 million.

        

       Alizila.com, Alibaba's corporate news website, reported earlier this
       week the suspects were detained in Fujian province's Putian city in
       April. John Spelich, the firm's spokesman, confirmed the report to AFP
       on Saturday.

        

       The people arrested allegedly operated a criminal gang that used fake
       IDs to open more than 100 "Gold Supplier" accounts on Alibaba.com.
       This designation is given to those certified as highly trusted
       suppliers by the firm.

        

       This allowed the suspects to pose as legitimate companies selling to
       overseas businesses that source goods through Alibaba.com. Police said
       the alleged scammers also used other international trading websites.

        

       Alibaba.com, based in the eastern city of Hangzhou, has grown into one
       of China's largest Internet companies by matching mainland
       manufacturers and wholesalers with buyers around the world.

        

       But its reputation took a hit in February when the firm announced the
       resignation of chief executive David Wei and head of operations Elvis
       Lee after fraud was uncovered on the site.

        

       Wei and Lee were not involved in the scams but resigned because they
       took responsibility for "systemic breakdowns" that allowed the fraud
       to happen, Alibaba said at the time.

        

       But according to the Alizila report, the fraud was "sometimes abetted
       by Alibaba.com employees." But Spelich said Saturday none of the 36
       arrested worked at the company.

        

       He added the number of fraud complaints received by the website in
       June was down 70 percent from February after Alibaba toughened
       procedures and other security measures.

        

       The report said Alibaba had refunded $1.9 million to those who lost
       their money to the alleged scammers.

       Click here to find out more!

        

       Kevin Stech

       Director of Research | STRATFOR

       kevin.stech@stratfor.com

       +1 (512) 744-4086

        

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 07:22:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1548232_re-ct-os-china-csm-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-in.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1548444</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   We don't know

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:12:04 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   Was the shooter a Libyan?

   On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:13:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1548444_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1548887</id>
    <title>[TACTICAL] OBL safehouse intelligence ** note OBL's key roles
</title>
    <description>(U) Bin Laden's written words show that counterterrorist officials
worldwide underestimated how key he remained to running the
organization, shattering the conventional thinking that he had been
reduced through isolation to being an inspirational figurehead, US
officials said in May. His personal, handwritten journal and his massive
collection of computer files show he helped plan every recent major al
Qaeda threat the United States is aware of, including plots in Europe
last year that had travelers and embassies on high alert, two officials
said. So far, no new plots have been uncovered in bin Laden's writings,
but intelligence officials say it will take weeks, if not months, to go
through them. They described the intelligence to The Associated Press
only on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk
publicly about what was found in bin Laden's hideout.
(U) The records show bin Laden was communicating from his walled
compound in Pakistan with al Qaeda's offshoots, including the Yemen
branch, which has emerged as the leading threat to the United States. US
officials have not shared any specific evidence yet that he was directly
behind the attempted Christmas Day 2009 bombing of a Detroit-bound
airliner or the nearly successful attack on cargo planes heading for
Chicago and Philadelphia, but it's now clear that they bear some of bin
Laden's hallmarks.
(U) He was well aware of US counterterrorist defenses and schooled his
followers how to work around them, the messages to his followers show.
Don't limit attacks to New York City, he said in his writings. Consider
other areas such as Los Angeles or smaller cities. Spread out the
targets. In one particularly macabre bit of mathematics, bin Laden's
writings show him musing over just how many Americans he must kill to
force the United States to withdraw from the Arab world. He concludes
that the smaller, scattered attacks since the 9/11 attacks had not been
enough. He tells his disciples that only a body count of thousands,
something on the scale of 9/11, would shift US policy. He also schemed
about ways to sow political dissent in Washington and play political
figures against one another, officials said.
(U) The communications were in missives sent via plug-in computer
storage devices called flash drives. The devices were ferried to bin
Laden's compound by couriers, a process that is slow but exceptionally
difficult to track. Intelligence officials have not identified any new
planned targets or plots in their initial analysis of the 100 or so
flash drives and five computers that Navy SEALs hauled away. In early
May, the FBI and Homeland Security Department warned law enforcement
officials nationwide to be on alert for possible attacks against trains,
though officials said there was no specific plot.
(U) Officials have not yet seen any indication that bin Laden had the
ability to coordinate timing of attacks across the various al Qaeda
affiliates in Pakistan, Yemen, Algeria, Iraq and Somalia. It is also
unclear from bin Laden's documents how much the affiliate groups
followed his guidance. The Yemen group, for instance, has embraced the
smaller-scale attacks that bin Laden's writings indicate he regarded as
unsuccessful. The Yemen branch had already surpassed his central
operation as al Qaeda's leading fundraising, propaganda and operational arm.
(U) Al Qaeda has not named bin Laden's successor, but all indications
point to his No. 2, Ayman al-Zawahri. The question is whether
al-Zawahri, or anyone, has the ability to keep so many disparate groups
under the al Qaeda banner. The groups in Somalia and Algeria, for
instance, have very different goals focused on local grievances. Without
bin Laden to serve as their shepherd, it's possible al Qaeda will
further fragment.
(U) British officials said the Americans had shared some information
with them about the bin Laden cache, but they said they had been shown
nothing concrete yet to indicate bin Laden's helped directly plan recent
terror attacks or plans in Britain — including a European plot last year
involving the threat of a Mumbai-style shooting spree in a capital. They
spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss matters of intelligence. One
British official said counterterror authorities had not been tracking
bin Laden like they had other terrorists deemed more directly involved
in operations.
</description>
    <date>2011-06-28 17:02:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 17:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1548887_-tactical-obl-safehouse-intelligence-note-obl-s-key-roles-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1549484</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-11 13:59:34</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1549484_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1549513</id>
    <title>Re: hacker questions
</title>
    <description>   What would cause Anonymous or LulzSec to change their M.O.?  Wasn't
   Lulzsec an outgrowth, and thus a change in MO, from Anonymous?

   Top hackers only work for the NSA or the Chinese?
   On 6/28/11 5:14 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     they took the cia's website down and it didn't matter, intranet was
     still up, it's just the webpage. cyber attacks really only matter in two
     cases: one: you steal shit. two: you render critical networks useless.

     while lulzsec and anon COULD theoretically do number 2, it doesn't mean
     they ever will because it would take someone convincing a horde of nerds
     that ddos-ing a telecom system is a good idea. The most harm they can
     realistically do is by exposing secure networks' flaws and stealing
     information (number 1). For this you don't need a million people, just a
     few very good ones with gigantic computers. It's really not in the m.o.
     of either of them to do anything so serious. While top hackers are
     dangerous, they're not going to be exposing themselves as part of any
     group but most likely working either for the NSA or the Chinese.

     On 6/28/11 5:05 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       Even if they did take down the CIA's website, why would it matter? or
       in what cases would it matter?

       On 6/28/11 4:36 PM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

         Mainly the targets they're choosing: everything from government
         websites in Brazil, Chile, Peru to the Arizona PD and the freakin'
         CIA (although whether they actually brought down the CIA site or not
         isn't not confirmed). This is a considerable step-up from harassing
         some Scientologists.
         This wouldn't seem to be, by any means, "serious" hacking (mainly
         relying on DDOS and everything else Marc mentioned), but the fact
         that they can disrupt websites of that caliber, even for a few
         hours, is starting to attract media attention and it would mayby be
         prudent to mention something about it.

         Again, this wouldn't be a focus on Lulz-sec or Anonymous or whatever
         specifically, but rather the nature of this sort of impromptu
         cyber-harassing that can be a pain. 

         On 6/28/11 4:22 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           Renato- what makes it significant enough for us to cover?

           Marc- what makes LulzSec's capacity so remarkalble?

             the thing with anon and lulzec is that they do things for,
             drumroll, the "lulz" (in normal speech, for the fun of it).
             While they have pretty remarkable hacking capacity, they use it
             mostly to "prank" people they don't like. From teh Westboro
             Baptist Church to the CIA, most of the attacks involve either
             DDOS or changing some silly logo on a web page. The most harm
             they do is actually to corporations (stealing video game and
             porn passwords).

             Especially in the case of Anon, they do have some very talented
             hackers, but their strength comes from numbers. Basically they
             recruit amateur 4chan neckbeards sitting at their parent's house
             who think it'd be funny to take someone's website down and
             convince them to run a pre-written script that will saturate its
             servers. The problem with numbers is that it's hard to find a
             common cause that rallies enough people . For your average
             31-year old dork eating Frito's in the basement, they'll sign up
             for porn and video game attacks (see above). Coordinating
             something targeted like intelligence theft that can get you a
             one-way ticket to Bubba's bunk in jail is very hard.

             On 6/28/11 1:23 PM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

               Do we plan to address any of the recent hacker phenomenons
               like the "Anon" and "lulzsec" attempts on gov. websites? I
               mean, "Anonymous" is more of an idea than an actual group, but
               this could be considered a sort of electronic "lone-wolf", no?

               On a somewhat unrelated note, I looked up "Lulz" on Stratfor
               and came up with this typo: "Both Chavez and Correa were in
               Manaos, Brazil, to meet with Brazilian President Lulz Inacio
               "Lula" da Silva."
               (http://www.stratfor.com/venezuela_chavez_says_banco_del_sur_open_november).

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 ADP

           --

           Sean Noonan

           Tactical Analyst

           Office: +1 512-279-9479

           Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

           Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

           www.stratfor.com

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 ADP

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-06-29 01:33:34</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1549513_re-hacker-questions-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1549628</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Maybe, or he could be the Norwegian McVeigh.

   On 7/22/11 9:26 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     Mercenary
     Contract hit

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Hoor Jangda &lt;hoor.jangda@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:25:36 -0500 (CDT)
     To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
     the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
     height.

     On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

       Was the shooter a Libyan?

       On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:30:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1549628_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1550055</id>
    <title>[TACTICAL] TrapWire and US Military
</title>
    <description>   We have the Pentagon, Big Army and the USMC on the system now. Navy's next
   on the list.

    

   http://www.capflyer.com/article/20110722/NEWS10/110729975/protecting-our-ranks-by-keeping-our-eyes-on-the-lookout

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-07-25 16:01:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1550055_-tactical-trapwire-and-us-military-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1550617</id>
    <title>Re: [OS] US/RUSSIA/CT- Pete Earley's blog afer announcement of
 Tretyakov's death
</title>
    <description>   I suggest reading this carefully.  Also, would it be possible to have a
   meeting about all of this on Monday?

   Sean Noonan wrote:

     [much easier to read at the link]

     http://www.peteearley.com/blog/2010/07/10/sergeis-death-mistakes-nonsense-and-a-chuckle/#more-631
     Sergeia**s Death. Mistakes. Nonsense and a Chuckle
     Published by Pete on July 10, 2010 in Books and Personal.
     Ia**ve been a journalist for more than three decades, but Ia**ve never
     had a day like yesterday.
     My morning began at 5 a.m. when I announced on my blog that my good
     friend, Sergei Tretyakov, had died unexpectedly on June 13th. We became
     good friends while collaborating on Comrade J. I posted this news after
     speaking several times during the week to Helen, his wife, and to
     several sources in the U.S. government familiar with his case.
     I had learned about his death from Helen shortly after it happened and
     she had asked me as a family friend to keep silent about it. She was
     worried that Sergeia**s former colleagues in the Russian intelligence
     service a** the SVR a** would somehow use his death for propaganda
     purposes and attempt to embarrass and discredit him. She also was
     understandably devastated by his unexpected death, in mourning for her
     beloved husband, and did not want the media attention that she knew the
     news would bring on her family.
     Of course, I agreed. As an author and not a daily journalist, I felt I
     had the luxury of keeping silent.
     I should have known a fundamental rule about news. No one, no matter how
     well-intentioned or experienced, can control it.
     At the time, neither Helen nor I were aware of the pending arrests of 10
     Russian a**illegalsa** and when that story broke nationally, it wasna**t
     long before Sergeia**s name began being mentioned.

     Several reporters who cover the FBI and CIA began speculating that
     Sergei had tipped off U.S. officials about the Russian a**illegalsa**
     ring because several of the spies had entered the U.S.  in the late
     1990s when Sergei was the second-in-command of the SVR in New York City
     but was secretly working as a U.S. spy.
     I first learned about this speculation when a New York Post reporter
     telephoned me and asked if I thought Sergei was the source. Based on
     what I knew at the time, I said that Sergei probably was. It seemed
     logical.
     Within hours, I was getting calls from NPR, the BBC, and the major news
     networks. Everyone was searching for Sergei.
     At that point, I told Helen that it was only a matter of time before his
     death would be discovered, but she wasna**t ready emotionally to tell
     the world that Sergei had died. I began telling callers that Sergei was
     a**unavailable.a**
     Meanwhile, the illegals story continued to mushroom, especially after
     one of the a**illegalsa** a**  Anna Chapman a** was dubbed the
     a**Russian Femme Fatale.a** Suddenly, her face was everywhere and I
     began receiving more and more telephone calls.
     Where was Sergei Tretyakov? How can we reach him? Was he the source?
     DATELINE called and I agreed to an interview.  I began contacting
     sources of mine in the FBI and CIA to learn more about the
     a**illegalsa** and to my shock, I was told repeatedly that Sergei had
     nothing to do with the case. Yes, it was true that he had briefed the
     government after he had defected in October 2000 about SVR a**illegala**
     operations in New York City. But I was told that he did not know any of
     the names of the Russians who had been arrested and had not tipped off
     the FBI about the spy ring.

     During these conversations, I also learned that individuals involved in
     Sergeia**s case wanted Helen to reveal that her husband had died. I was
     told that it would be more difficult to dismiss the conspiracy theories
     that always seem to surface in spying cases if Sergei continued to be
     a**unavailable.a**
     On Thursday afternoon, I told DATELINE during a taped interview for a
     program that was to air on Sunday that Sergei was not the FBIa**s source
     for the arrests of the a**illegals.a** The producer who interviewed me
     was surprised and clearly disappointed.
     Late that night, Helen and I agreed that it was time to go public with
     Sergeia**s death. I greatly admired her courage and told her to gird
     herself for a media onslaught.
     I posted my blog at 5 a.m.and sent word to several reporters.
     Not much happened for several hours until J.J. Green, a reporter at WTOP
     radio in Washington D.C., interviewed Helen. Green had broadcast an
     excellent series about Sergei Tretyakov on WTOP earlier and like me,
     Helen had liked and trusted him. She had told him about Sergeia**s death
     and had given him an exclusive interview when he called her.
     The Associated Press picked up Greena**s story and then called me for
     information.
     It was then that things began getting strange.
     An AP reporter wrote a story that said WTOP was the first to break the
     news of Sergeia**s death. Obviously, that was wrong.  Later during the
     day, that same AP reporter sent me an email explaining why he had
     credited WTOP instead of my blog. a**WTOP is an AP member and the first
     media outlet to tip us off and report the story. Thata**s why wea**re
     giving them credit.a** Apparently plugging AP members overrode being
     accurate. But the slight was a minor irritant. There were other mistakes
     in the AP story that was now spreading news of Sergeia**s death across
     the nation and world.
     Within two hours, I had received more than fifty emails and dozens of
     telephone calls from reporters. It didna**t help that I was out of town
     conducting an interview and didna**t have enough juice in my cell phone
     to return all of the calls to answer questions.
     I also realized that I had made a mistake too in my blog. Or it appeared
     that I had.
     I had been told that the FBI had supervised an autopsy of Sergeia**s
     body to insure that there was no foul play involved in his death. 
     However, a reporter tracked down the coroner, who was actually doing the
     autopsy, and the coroner said the final results would not be available
     until late July. Then the FBI took the unusual step of issuing a
     statement saying that it had not supervised the autopsy as I had
     reported.
     I felt both angry and betrayed because my sources had told me that an
     autopsy had been done under the direction of the FBI and it had showed
     no foul play. I felt the FBI was distancing itself from Sergeia**s death
     and I didna**t know why. When I confronted my sources, I was told that
     the government did not want to officially acknowledge that Sergei was a
     spy.
     What? I exclaimed.
     In the first chapter of my book, Comrade J, I had explained that it was
     the FBI and CIA who had first introduced Sergei to me.
     Within a few hours, The New York Times was reporting that the coroner
     was now saying that an autopsy had been completed and that the FBI was
     monitoring the autopsy.
     By mid-morning, the tenor of the calls on my cell phone had changed. Now
     I was being asked about differences in the WTOP report and my blog. Why
     had Helen told me that Sergei had died from a massive heart attack when
     WTOP was saying that he had died from natural causes. Why had I said an
     autopsy had been done when the coroner was saying it hadna**t and then
     saying it had? And why had the FBI gone to the trouble of saying it had
     not supervised an autopsy when the coroner was now saying it had?
     Meanwhile, a spy museum official in Washington D.C. was still insisting
     that it was possible that Sergei had tipped off the FBI about the
     a**illegals.a**
     Late Friday afternoon, the Washington Post revealed that the White House
     had been briefed about the impending arrests of the a**illegalsa** on
     June 11th a** two days before Sergeia**s death.
     It was at that point when the conspiracy theories began surfacing on
     blogs, including this one.
     A reporter from TASS a** the Russian news service a** telephoned and
     suggested that it was highly unlikely that Sergeia**s death and the
     a**illegalsa** case were unrelated and a coincidence.
     The story was now taking on a life of its own.
     When I wrote my first spy book about John Walker Jr. and his Family of
     Spies, I quickly learned a sad truth about espionage reporting. I was on
     a radio station talking about Walker and how he had betrayed our nation
     when an outraged caller came on the air and told me that I had it all
     wrong. Walker was actually a double agent trained by the CIA. Our
     government was going to swap him with someone in Moscow so that Walker
     could steal the Kremlina**s secrets. It was total nonsense, of course,
     but the caller was absolutely certain it was true.
     Not long after that, I wrote about Aldrich Ames, the CIA traitor, and
     his involvement with Vitaly Yuchenko, a veteran KGB officer who defected
     to the US in 1985, only to change his mind a short time later and return
     to the Soviet Union. I interviewed the key players in both the U.S. and
     in Moscow about the Yuchenko case after the collapse of the Soviet
     Union, including retired KGB General Boris Solomatin who was directly
     involved in the Yuchenko investigation. There is no doubt in my mind
     that Yuchenko was a genuine defector who had simply gone home to Moscow
     after having his heart broken by the wife of a Soviet diplomat. He had
     foolishly believed that she would leave her husband in Canada and live
     happily ever after with him in America after he defected to the U.S.
     Instead, she had rebuffed him.
     However, if you check the Internet you will see lots of conspiracy
     theories about how Yuchenko was a a**fakea** defector who was sent by
     the KGB to cast suspicion away from Ames. Even Wikipedia has fallen for
     the a**Yuchenko was a fake defectora** scenario that is constantly being
     pushed by the SVR.
     Given the history of conspiracy theories in the CIA, dating back to
     James Jesus Angleton and the Nosenko affair, I will not be surprised if
     the SVR and conspiracy theorists jump on Sergeia**s death.
     No matter what I write about my good friend, there will be readers who
     will prefer to believe that he was murdered for speaking out against
     Russia. My heart goes out to Helen because this is exactly what she
     didna**t want to happen.
     But I also have to smile a bit.
     I can see my friend Sergei chuckling at the nonsense that many are
     writing about him. He always did like a good spy story.

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

  

     --
     Sean Noonan
     Tactical Analyst
     Office: +1 512-279-9479
     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com


   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   Office: +1 512-279-9479
   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1550617_re-os-us-russia-ct-pete-earley-s-blog-afer-announcement-of.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1551920</id>
    <title>Re: [TACTICAL] TrapWire on SARs
</title>
    <description>   The LAPD have a very manly badge. 

   On 7/29/2011 11:18 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

     Our primary work in this area has been the iWatch program. We built the
     prototype for LAPD
     (https://report.iwatchla.net/page/iwatch/iwatchlogin.aspx?site=LA ) and
     have also now built systems for DC Metro, and the Army. Many more
     cities/sites will be coming on-line shortly -- including DPS and Austin.
     iWatch pulls community member reporting into the TrapWire search engine
     and compares SARs across the country...with potential matches being fed
     back to the local LE agency. An amazing amount of good quality reporting
     is coming in from alert citizens (and police officers) in the DC area in
     particular.
</description>
    <date>2011-07-29 18:27:25</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1551920_re-tactical-trapwire-on-sars-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1552099</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] [OS] US/RUSSIA/CT- Former top Russian spy Sergei	Tretyakovdies
 at	53
</title>
    <description>   Earley's blog first posted at 0400 Central
   He also twatted about it about that time. 

   WTOP article was posted approximately 0850 Central
   JJ Green first twatted about at approximately 0900 central

   Sean Noonan wrote:

     yes, that was included in the analysis. 

     Anya Alfano wrote:

       Note in this post, Earley says J didn't know about the 10 recently
       arrested spies, per an unidentified source.  In bold below --

       On 7/9/2010 1:52 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         This was Earley's first blog post, that I sent out earlier. 
         Sometime today.  I'm not sure if you mean 'what' was the blog or
         'when' was the blog.  Seeing if Kevin can help track down the time
         it was posted.

         Sergei Tretyakov, Comrade J, has died.
         Published by Pete on July 9, 2010 in Books and Personal.
         http://www.peteearley.com/blog/2010/07/09/sergei-tretyakov-comrade-j-has-died/

         I am sorry to announce that my good friend, Sergei Tretyakov, the
         subject of my book, Comrade J: The Untold Secrets of Russia's Master
         Spy in America After the End of the Cold War, died unexpectedly on
         June 13th in his home with his wife, Helen.
         Sergei was 53.
         Helen asked those of us who were his friends to not immediately
         reveal his death until an autopsy could be performed under the
         supervision of the FBI. She was concerned that Sergei's former
         colleagues in Russia's SVR, which replaced the KGB as Russia's
         foreign intelligence service, might attempt to use his unexpected
         death for propaganda purposes.
         That autopsy has now been completed and it showed no evidence of
         foul play, according to an FBI official who spoke to me
         off-the-record. Helen said her husband died from massive cardiac
         arrest.
         In keeping with Russian Orthodox religious traditions, a private
         funeral was held on the third day after his death. On the ninth day,
         more than 200 people attended a private celebration of his life. The
         guests included close friends, neighbors and persons who had worked
         with him in the United States.
         Sergei was called "the most important spy for the U.S. since the
         collapse of the Soviet Union" by an FBI official in my book.
         Unfortunately, because much of what he said is still being used by
         U. S. counter-intelligence officers, it will be years before the
         true extent of his contribution can be made public - if ever.
         Sergei Olegovich Tretyakov was born Oct. 5, 1956 in Moscow and rose
         quickly through the ranks to become the second-in-command of the KGB
         in New York City between 1995 to 2000. As such, he oversaw all
         Russian spy operations against the US and its allies in New York
         City and within the United Nations.
         When he defected on Oct. 11, 2000, with Helen and their daughter,
         Ksenia, the U.S. government took the family into hiding and during
         the next five years, they lived largely "off the grid." It wasn't
         until Comrade J was published and Sergei went on a book tour that
         his work both as a high-ranking KGB/SVR officer and U.S. operative
         was made public. It is thought that he spent at least three years
         working as a U.S. agent while he was still an SVR colonel in New
         York.
         Sergei, Helen and their daughter became U.S. citizens after they
         defected and although some federal officials feared for their
         safety, Sergei lived openly under his own name without protection -
         although when he traveled overseas, he always had an FBI escort.
         Sergei was convinced that his U.S. citizenship protected him from
         the SVR, even though he continued to publicly criticize his former
         colleagues, especially President Vladimir Putin.
         The recent arrests of eleven Russian "illegals" on June 28th by the
         FBI thrust Sergei's name into the news once again. The fact that he
         was in charge of all covert operations in New York City when several
         of the illegals entered the country suggested that he was aware of
         their operations and quickly led to speculation that he had
         tipped-off the FBI about the ring.
         However, on Thursday, a  informed source told me that Sergei was not
         involved in the case. Sergei told U.S. officials when he was
         debriefed about Russian "illegal" operations, but he did not know
         the individuals who later were arrested, my source said.
         I became close friends with Sergei and Helen while working on my
         book about their life and his career. They insisted that I stay with
         them in their home and during our weeks together, I witnessed
         first-hand how much he and Helen loved each other, their devotion to
         their daughter, and love for their new homeland. I also was
         delighted to discover that Helen was a gourmet cook!
         Sergei dispelled many of the Hollywood stereotypes of a Russian
         agent. He was well-educated, fluent in three languages,
         quick-witted, personable and able to laugh at his own mistakes when
         he didn't understand an American tradition or slang.
         He proved to be a tireless worker when I interviewed him. He would
         speak for ten hours straight, often pacing back-and-forth, in the
         family room of his house as we discussed his career. He had a
         fabulous memory that he had sharpened as a KGB/SVR officer and he
         refused to speculate or exaggerate when he discussed KGB/SVR
         operations.  He knew his enemies in Russia would use the slightest
         mistake to attack his credibility so he was scrupulous in what he
         said and the charges that he made.
         Having written bestselling books about two American traitors,
         including John Walker Jr., and his Family of Spies,and Aldrich Ames,
         the CIA turncoat, I was struck at how different Sergei was from U.S.
         traitors. Walker and Ames were motivated by greed and money. Sergei
         did not need money. Upon his return to Russia from New York, he was
         due to be promoted to the rank of general, which would have
         guaranteed him a cushy retirement. He had assets in Moscow worth
         more than two million U.S. dollars - money that was stripped from
         him after he defected.
         It was clear to me early on that he did not swtich sides for
         financial gain, but rather because he had lost faith in Russian
         leaders and he wanted a better life for his young daughter. He liked
         to say that he did not betray his homeland. Rather he and other
         ordinary citizens in Russia had been betrayed by Presidents Boris
         Yeltsin and Putin after the Soviet Union collapsed.
         Neither Walker or Ames ever wanted to become Russian citizens, but
         Sergei and his family relished their U.S. citizenship. Sergei often
         told me that Americans were naive because they took freedoms for
         granted and did not understand how unique our lives here are
         compared to life in an oppressive nation, such as Russia whose
         leaders often silence their critics, especially those in the media,
         with a bullet.
         One reason why I believe Sergei did not know about the 11 Russians
         who were arrested as illegals is because he did not hold back during
         our interviews in identifying persons whom he claimed were Russian
         spies.
         Among the individuals identified in my book were a former member of
         the Canadian Parliament, a top-ranking verification expert at the
         International Atomic Energy Agency, and a former U.N. official who
         Sergei helped place in the Oil For Food Program. That UN official
         diverted a half billion US dollars of UN humanitarian relief to
         Moscow under both the Yeltsin and Putin administrations and was
         rewarded by Putin for the thefts. Sergei was disgusted by that
         thievery and said so.
         In our interviews, he talked repeatedly about how Yeltsin had failed
         the Russian people by becoming a drunken stumble-bum who allowed
         Oligarchs to engorge themselves by stealing government property. He
         had similar harsh criticisms for Putin, whom Sergei described as an
         insignificant KGB officer who later as president surrounded himself
         with thugs. Their primary goal has been to enrich themselves, he
         charged.
         Sergei asked me to write his story at the suggestion of a director
         in the British intelligence service. They were having dinner when my
         name was mentioned because the director had read my book about
         Aldrich Ames and had admired it. Sergei waived his rights to any
         advance money from the publisher and received less than $10,000 from
         the book's sales even though it was a New York Times bestseller.
         Money was not his motive in telling his story.
         Instead, he hoped to sound a wake-up call about Russia. He was fond
         of saying that the Cold War never ended. Before the collapse of the
         Soviet Union, the KGB had a list of three main adversaries: (1.) The
         United States  (2.) NATO and (3.) China. After the KGB was disbanded
         and the SVR was formed, Sergei said a new edict came down announcing
         that the SVR had three main targets: (1.) The United States (2.)
         NATO and (3.) China.
         "What changed?" he asked, laughing.
         Those of us who were his friends will miss his sense of humor, his
         knowledge about Russia and KGB/SVR spy-craft,  and his almost
         child-like love for his new country.
         I was honored to write his life story and to call him my friend.
         I will miss not hearing his voice when I call.

         Fred Burton wrote:

           The wife dissed Early and gave JJ the exclusive.

           What was Earlys first blog on CJ's death?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
           Sender: ct-bounces@stratfor.com
           Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2010 12:36:42 -0500
           To: CT AOR&lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
           ReplyTo: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
           Subject: Re: [CT] [OS] US/RUSSIA/CT- Former top Russian spy Sergei
           Tretyakov dies at 53
           Othere people getting in on the suspicions.  See see bolded
           Spy Swap Suspicions? Death of Russian Turncoat Raises Eyebrows
           http://www.aolnews.com/surge-desk/article/spy-swap-suspicions-death-of-russian-turncoat-raises-eyebrows/19548270

           Sergei Tretyakov, a Russian spy who defected to the United States
           in 2000, has died, Washington, D.C. radio station WTOP is
           reporting. The timing of the announcement is viewed suspiciously
           by some, given the spy swap that occurred between the U.S. and
           Russia today and the fact that Tretyakov apparently died last
           month. His wife, Helen, reportedly asked that his death not be
           announced until an autopsy was completed. No foul play was
           reported in the autopsy, according to WTOP......

           ...In recent weeks, it has been revealed that the FBI has been
           following the 10 Russian spies who were deported today for the
           last 10 years.

           Sean Noonan wrote:

             More details, others speculating about links to 10 Russian
             agents.
             Former top Russian spy Sergei Tretyakov dies at 53
             By BRETT ZONGKER (AP) - 28 minutes ago
             http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hnKY1X2FWlKY5ogKK_hsIU0HUnSQD9GRLAQ80

             WASHINGTON - A former top Russian spy who defected to the U.S.
             after running espionage operations from the United Nations,
             Sergei Tretyakov, has died in Florida, his wife and a friend
             said Friday. He was 53.

             News of his death last month came the same day the United States
             and Russia completed their largest swap of spies since the Cold
             War.

             Tretyakov, who defected in 2000 and later claimed his agents
             helped the Russian government steal nearly $500 million from the
             U.N.'s oil-for-food program in Iraq, died June 13. He was 53,
             according to a Social Security death record.

             WTOP Radio in Washington first reported his death Friday. His
             widow, Helen Tretyakov, told the station he died of natural
             causes.

             She asked friends not to make the death public until the cause
             was determined, according to author Pete Earley, who wrote a
             2008 book about Tretyakov. Earley wrote Friday on his blog that
             Tretyakov died of a heart attack at home and an autopsy showed
             no sign of foul play.

             The medical examiner's office in Sarasota County, Fla., said the
             autopsy report was pending. A woman who answered the phone at
             the office said it would be completed after July 26.

             "Sergei was called 'the most important spy for the U.S. since
             the collapse of the Soviet Union' by an FBI official in my
             book," Earley wrote. "Unfortunately, because much of what he
             said is still being used by U.S. counterintelligence officers,
             it will be years before the true extent of his contribution can
             be made public - if ever."

             A private funeral was held three days after Tretyakov's death,
             in keeping with Russian Orthodox tradition, and more than 200
             people attended a service in the days after, Earley wrote.

             Tretyakov was born Oct. 5, 1956, in Moscow. He joined the KGB
             and rose quickly to become the second-in-command of its U.N.
             office in New York between 1995 and 2000.

             His defection in 2000 was very significant, said Peter Earnest,
             director of the International Spy Museum in Washington, who
             spent more than 30 years in the CIA.

             Russia's spies in the United States would have come under
             Tretyakov's purview, Earnest said.

             For up to a decade following his defection, the FBI kept watch
             over 10 Russian agents as they tried to blend into American
             suburbia. They were arrested last week and swapped Friday in
             Vienna for four people convicted in Russia of spying for the
             U.S. and Britain.

             "That does bring into mind the question: Is that the sort of
             information he might have shared with the U.S. authorities?"
             Earnest said.
             Tretyakov defected to the United States with his wife and
             daughter.

             In a 2008 interview promoting Earley's book, Tretyakov said his
             agents helped the Russian government skim hundreds of millions
             of dollars from the oil-for-food program before the fall of
             Saddam Hussein in 2003. He told The Associated Press he oversaw
             an operation that helped Hussein's regime manipulate the price
             of oil sold under the program, and Russia skimmed profits.

             Tretyakov called his defection "the major failure of Russian
             intelligence in the United States" and warned that Russia,
             despite the end of the Cold War, harbored bad intentions toward
             the U.S.

             Tretyakov said he found it immoral to continue helping the
             Russian government.

             "I don't see any light at the end of the tunnel. I'm not very
             emotional. I'm not a Boy Scout," Tretyakov said. "And finally in
             my life, when I defected, I did something good in my life.
             Because I want to help United States."

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

  

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

  

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

  

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

  

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-07-09 20:07:06</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1552099_re-ct-os-us-russia-ct-former-top-russian-spy-sergei.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1553143</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] Fwd: [OS] US/CT-16 Suspected 'Anonymous' Hackers Arrested
 in Nationwide Sweep
</title>
    <description>These assholes should get the death sentence, along with their hero Julian =
Assange.

---- Original Message -----
From: Reginald Thompson &amp;lt;reginald.thompson@stratfor.com&amp;gt;
To: CT AOR &amp;lt;ct@stratfor.com&amp;gt;
Sent: Tue, 19 Jul 2011 18:48:06 -0500 (CDT)
Subject: [CT] Fwd: [OS] US/CT-16 Suspected 'Anonymous' Hackers Arrested in =
Nationwide Sweep
16 Suspected 'Anonymous' Hackers Arrested in Nationwide Sweep=20
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/07/19/exclusive-fbi-search-warrants-nat=
ionwide-hunt-anonymous/=20
7.19.11=20
Sixteen suspected members of "Anonymous" were arrested this morning in stat=
es across the country, from California to New York, in a federal raid on th=
e notorious hacking group.=20
The arrests Tuesday, first reported by FoxNews.com, are part of an ongoing =
investigation into Anonymous, which has claimed responsibility for numerous=
 cyberattacks against a variety of websites, including Visa and Mastercard.=
=20
The Department of Justice, in announcing the arrests and more than 35 searc=
h warrants in the case, said the case stemmed from an alleged cybertattack =
on the website PayPal over its action against controversial group WikiLeaks=
, one of the inspirations for the hacker group Anonymous.=20
Fourteen of the arrests were identified in the same indictment out of Calif=
ornia, while two separate criminal complaints filed out of courts in Newark=
, N.J., and Tampa, Fla., name the two other alleged hackers. All are believ=
ed to have been involved in carrying out nationwide coordinated distributed=
 denial of service (DDoS) attacks on multiple high-profile, billion-dollar =
companies.=20
"In retribution for PayPal=E2=80=99s termination of WikiLeaks=E2=80=99 dona=
tion account, a group calling itself Anonymous coordinated and executed dis=
tributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks against PayPal=E2=80=99s computer=
 servers using an open source computer program the group makes available fo=
r free download on the Internet," the Justice Department said in a news rel=
ease.=20
The department identified the suspects in the California indictment as Chri=
stopher Wayne Cooper, 23, aka =E2=80=9CAnthrophobic;=E2=80=9D Joshua John C=
ovelli, 26, aka =E2=80=9CAbsolem=E2=80=9D and =E2=80=9CToxic;=E2=80=9D Keit=
h Wilson Downey, 26; Mercedes Renee Haefer, 20, aka =E2=80=9CNo=E2=80=9D an=
d =E2=80=9CMMMM;=E2=80=9D Donald Husband, 29, aka =E2=80=9CAnanon;=E2=80=9D=
 Vincent Charles Kershaw, 27, aka =E2=80=9CTrivette,=E2=80=9D =E2=80=9CTriv=
=E2=80=9D and =E2=80=9CReaper;=E2=80=9D Ethan Miles, 33; James C. Murphy, 3=
6; Drew Alan Phillips, 26, aka =E2=80=9CDrew010;=E2=80=9D Jeffrey Puglisi, =
28, aka =E2=80=9CJeffer,=E2=80=9D =E2=80=9CJefferp=E2=80=9D and =E2=80=9CJi=
;=E2=80=9D Daniel Sullivan, 22; Tracy Ann Valenzuela, 42; and Christopher Q=
uang Vo, 22. One individual=E2=80=99s name has been withheld by the court.=
=20
They are charged with various counts of conspiracy and intentional damage t=
o a protected computer, which carries a maximum sentence of 10 years in pri=
son and a fine of up to $250,000. Each count of conspiracy carries a maximu=
m penalty of five years in prison and a $250,000 fine.=20
Also Tuesday, Scott Matthew Arciszewski, 21, was arrested in Florida on cha=
rges of intentional damage to a protected computer for allegedly accessing =
without authorization the Tampa Bay InfraGard website and uploaded three fi=
les.=20
And Lance Moore, 21, of Las Cruces, N.M., was arrested on the New Jersey in=
dictment, which accuses him of stealing confidential business information s=
tored on AT&amp;T=E2=80=99s servers and posting it on a file-sharing site. He i=
s charged with one count of accessing a protected computer without authoriz=
ation.=20
Some of the arrests were out of the San Francisco field office, sources sai=
d. Earlier in the day, the FBI executed search warrants at the New York hom=
es -- two in Long Island, N.Y., and one in Brooklyn, N.Y. -- of three suspe=
cted members of Anonymous, FoxNews.com reported.=20
More than 10 FBI agents arrived at the Baldwin, N.Y., home of Giordani Jord=
an with a search warrant for computers and computer-related accessories, re=
moving at least one laptop from the premises.=20
The Anonymous group is a loose collection of cybersavvy activists inspired =
by WikiLeaks and its flamboyant head Julian Assange to fight for "Internet =
freedom" -- along the way defacing websites, shutting down servers, and scr=
awling messages across screens web-wide.=20
The Anonymous vigilante group recently turned its efforts to the Arizona po=
lice department, posting personal information of law officers and hacking a=
nd defacing websites in response, the group claims, to the state's controve=
rsial SB1070 immigration law.=20
While Anonymous is largely a politically motivated organization, splinter g=
roup LulzSec -- which dominated headlines in the spring for a similar strea=
k of cyberattacks -- was largely in it for the thrills.=20
The metropolitan police in London arrested the first alleged member of the =
LulzSec group on June 20, a 19-year-old teen named Ryan Cleary. Subsequent =
sweeps through Italy and Switzerland in early July led to the arrests of 15=
 more people -- all between the ages of 15 and 28 years old.=20
The two groups are responsible for a broad spate of digital break-ins targe=
ting governments and large corporations, including Japanese technology gian=
t Sony, the U.S. Senate, telecommunications giant AT&amp;T, Fox.com, and other =
government and private entities.=20
Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/07/19/exclusive-fbi-search-w=
arrants-nationwide-hunt-anonymous/#ixzz1Sb8yzQ90=20
-----------------=20
Reginald Thompson=20
Cell: (011) 504 8990-7741=20
OSINT=20
Stratfor=20
</description>
    <date>2011-07-20 04:47:57</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 19:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1553143_re-ct-fwd-os-us-ct-16-suspected-anonymous-hackers-arrested.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>christopher.ohara@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1554286</id>
    <title>[alpha] Fw: Oslo
</title>
    <description>   Trapwire

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:18:40 -0500 (CDT)
   To: burton@stratfor.com&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Oslo
   99 percent sure. Some reports already confirming.
    
   From: burton@stratfor.com [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, July 22, 2011 12:15 PM
   To: Michael Maness
   Subject: Re: Oslo
    
   Think it was a bomb?

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:00:28 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Oslo

   My money's on a Libyan connection.

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 18:31:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1554286_-alpha-fw-oslo-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1555235</id>
    <title>S3 - INDIA/CT/GV- Death toll from derailed train in India now at 60
</title>
    <description>   The red please [chris]

   [this news also has the Assam blast story that caused train derailment the
   end. Bad sunday for Indian railways AR)

   Death toll from derailed train in India now at 60
   AP
   http://news.yahoo.com/death-toll-derailed-train-india-now-60-034936343.html

   LUCKNOW, India (AP) a** Officials say the death toll from a train
   derailment in northern India has risen to 60 as more bodies are being
   pulled out of the mangled coaches.

   The senior army official in charge of rescue operations at the accident
   site says volunteers and soldiers have pulled out 60 bodies from 12
   coaches of the Kalka Mail, which went off the tracks Sunday afternoon.

   Col. Amarjit Dhillon told the Associated Press on Monday that many more
   bodies were trapped under the twisted coaches and soldiers were using gas
   cutters to slice through the metal.

   Rescue workers working through the night rescued many of the more than 100
   injured in the accident near the town of Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh state.

   THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information.
   AP's earlier story is below.

   FATEHPUR, India (AP) a** Rescuers searched for survivors in the wreckage
   of a packed express train that derailed in northern India on Sunday
   afternoon, killing at least 31 people, while officials said a second train
   derailment hundreds of miles (kilometers) to the northeast appeared to
   have been caused by a remote-controlled bomb.

   Rescuers were working to reach the second derailment, which occurred late
   Sunday night in a rural area of Assam state, injuring at least 100. The
   two railway incidents did not appear to be related.

   In the first crash, the Kalka Mail train was on its way to Kalka, in the
   foothills of the Himalayas, from Howrah, a station near Kolkata in eastern
   India, when 12 coaches and the engine jumped the tracks at Malwan station,
   near the town of Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh state, senior railway official
   A.K. Jain said.

   The cause of the derailment was not immediately clear but it appeared that
   the driver applied the emergency brakes, Jain said.

   At least 31 people were killed and rescue workers pulled at least 100
   injured passengers out of the wreckage, said Brij Lal, a state police
   official.

   Hours later, the second train derailed in the northeastern state of Assam,
   injuring at least 100 people, said S.K. Roy, a local magistrate.

   Local police suspect that a remote control-triggered bomb caused four
   coaches of the Gauhati-Puri Express to be thrown off the tracks in the
   town of Rangiya, about 30 miles (50 kilometers) west of the state's
   capital, Gauhati, Roy said.

   S. Hajong, a local railways spokesman, said two of the four coaches
   plunged into a pond and casualties are feared.

   Roy did not blame any rebel group and no one has taken responsibility for
   the attack so far. More than 30 groups in northeastern India have been
   fighting for decades for independence or wide autonomy in the region,
   about 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) east of New Delhi.

   It was the third train accident in India in the last four days. A train
   hit a bus at an unmanned railway crossing last Thursday, killing 35
   people.

   In Fatehpur, the accident site was a pile of twisted metal. At least one
   coach flew above the roof of another ahead of it and was dangling
   precariously, television footage showed. Another coach was thrown away
   from the rest of the train.

   The toll was likely to rise as rescuers made their way through the coaches
   and used gas cutters to cut through the mangled metal, Lal said. Rescue
   efforts continued late into the night.

   "We're trying to cut into the coaches and rescue those still trapped
   inside," Lal said.

   A senior railway official, H.C. Joshi, told CNN-IBN news channel that
   rescuers were struggling to free at least five people pinned under the
   wreckage of one of the worst-damaged coaches.

   Medical personnel rushed to the area, about 75 miles (120 kilometers)
   southeast of Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh state.

   Army helicopters were ferrying the most seriously injured victims to
   hospitals and 30 army engineers had joined the rescue efforts, Lal said.

   TV stations showed local residents helping injured passengers away from
   the train, several in makeshift stretchers, and breaking the windows of
   coaches to help those trapped inside.

   Prime Minister Manmohan Singh expressed "deep sorrow and shock" at the
   loss of lives. The Railways Ministry announced compensation of 500,000
   rupees ($11,000) for the families of those killed in the accident.

   The number of passengers on board the Kalka Mail a** named for its past
   use in the postal service a** was not known. Express trains normally carry
   about 1,000 people and travel at speeds of 60-80 miles (100-130
   kilometers) per hour.

   India's railroad network is one of the largest in the world and carries
   about 14 million passengers a day. Accidents are common, with most blamed
   on poor maintenance and human error.

   --
   Animesh

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   Australia Mobile: 0423372241
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-11 06:52:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-17 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1555235_s3-india-ct-gv-death-toll-from-derailed-train-in-india-now.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1556595</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Libyans also pay foreign mercenaries.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:12:04 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   Was the shooter a Libyan?

   On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:13:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1556595_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1556845</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [OS] CHINA/CSM - Alibaba says China police arrest
 36 in fraud probe
</title>
    <description>   hey can you get on gchat and ping me?  I'd like to chat about this. 
   thanks. 

   On 7/5/11 8:25 AM, Melissa Taylor wrote:

     Could you elaborate a bit on what you mean when you say they have
     increased their focus on stability?  You list out many very good reasons
     for them to do so, but as someone who has only (relatively) recently
     been following Chinese daily news, I'm curious what you've noted.

     On 7/5/11 3:46 AM, Zhixing Zhang wrote:

       if we want to write on redism, several leftists (sent by Utopia) were
       beat by the police in front of Shanghai NPC June 22 when submitting
       their appeals. This highlighted the state's unwillingness to see
       drastic redism. Meanwhile, this could very much upset redisms (though
       not many) who thought they are the closest supporter of CPC and the
       state. On the other hand, Mao Yushi was banned to be interviewed by
       VOA. CPC will want a very smooth celebration of its anniversary, of
       which stability is the priority task.

       Back to our discussion on legitimacy, I have a feeling that CPC is
       really trying to push forward stability in the recent years. Of course
       stability is always the priority for a state, and in particular for a
       giant authoritarian regime - so even pushing forward stability is much
       more of a reactive measure. But with the society being much more
       diversified, economic facing greater uncertainty, increasing social
       unrest, increasingly polarized ideology, ensuring CPC's role in
       maintaining stability - neither culture revolution - that we have seen
       CPC in its birthday further distance itself from CR, and Bo was
       reportedly blamed by core circle that his approach is nearly CP
       approach (from HK media, and we have to monitor it for confirmation),
       nor foreign interfere - something rightism would support and while
       catering to public, it could be acceptable only in limited way. It can
       be a consensus for the public that revolution and western intervention
       are both evils, and maintaining current stability is the only way to
       maintain the current status, something CPC's role lies on.

       On 04/07/2011 23:18, Sean Noonan wrote:

         This is also a pretty good CSM topic.  some college kids running a
         scam through Alibaba (chinese ebay), took in a good amount of
         money. 

         If we had some good 'redism' related incidents, maybe I could write
         on that, but we'd need some very concise points to make. 

         Let me know what you guys think of this and the surveillance camera
         topic.

         Jen, I assume that Trapwire is a competitor to Cisco, but I'm not
         sure.  I don't know if trapwire makes the actual cameras or just
         does the analysis.   I won't have real questions till morning. 

         On 7/2/11 11:00 AM, Kevin Stech wrote:

           Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in fraud probe

           02 July 2011 - 08H10 

           http://www.france24.com/en/20110702-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-fraud-probe

            

           AFP - Police have arrested 36 people in southeast China following
           an investigation into fraud on e-commerce site Alibaba.com and
           other websites that duped buyers out of more than $6 million.

            

           Alizila.com, Alibaba's corporate news website, reported earlier
           this week the suspects were detained in Fujian province's Putian
           city in April. John Spelich, the firm's spokesman, confirmed the
           report to AFP on Saturday.

            

           The people arrested allegedly operated a criminal gang that used
           fake IDs to open more than 100 "Gold Supplier" accounts on
           Alibaba.com. This designation is given to those certified as
           highly trusted suppliers by the firm.

            

           This allowed the suspects to pose as legitimate companies selling
           to overseas businesses that source goods through Alibaba.com.
           Police said the alleged scammers also used other international
           trading websites.

            

           Alibaba.com, based in the eastern city of Hangzhou, has grown into
           one of China's largest Internet companies by matching mainland
           manufacturers and wholesalers with buyers around the world.

            

           But its reputation took a hit in February when the firm announced
           the resignation of chief executive David Wei and head of
           operations Elvis Lee after fraud was uncovered on the site.

            

           Wei and Lee were not involved in the scams but resigned because
           they took responsibility for "systemic breakdowns" that allowed
           the fraud to happen, Alibaba said at the time.

            

           But according to the Alizila report, the fraud was "sometimes
           abetted by Alibaba.com employees." But Spelich said Saturday none
           of the 36 arrested worked at the company.

            

           He added the number of fraud complaints received by the website in
           June was down 70 percent from February after Alibaba toughened
           procedures and other security measures.

            

           The report said Alibaba had refunded $1.9 million to those who
           lost their money to the alleged scammers.

           Click here to find out more!

            

           Kevin Stech

           Director of Research | STRATFOR

           kevin.stech@stratfor.com

           +1 (512) 744-4086

            

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 15:47:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1556845_re-eastasia-os-china-csm-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zhixing.zhang@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1557144</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Was the shooter a Libyan?

   On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:11:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1557144_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1557171</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Qaddaffi out-sources jobs, going back to Carlos the Jackal.

   Ck the OS about 3-4 weeks ago, about Qaddaffi hiring mercs.

   The suspect could be ex-French Foreign Legion.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:30:48 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   Maybe, or he could be the Norwegian McVeigh.

   On 7/22/11 9:26 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     Mercenary
     Contract hit

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Hoor Jangda &lt;hoor.jangda@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:25:36 -0500 (CDT)
     To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
     the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
     height.

     On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

       Was the shooter a Libyan?

       On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:34:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1557171_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1558278</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] contradictory quotes about tretyakov autopsy
</title>
    <description>   This July 26 date might be for public release--rather than the FBI and
   Yelena's view of it.  We really don't know. 
   We are waiting for a recording of the 911 call.  There a number of ways to
   kill people that don't show up in an autopsy. 

   And while Tretyakov wasn't in WITSEC, the FBI (and CIA presumably) are
   going to be afraid of being publicly held partly responsible for his
   death, if it was foulplay. 

   All that said, a suspicious death would trigger what happened over the
   last few weeks, even if they now know it was natural causes.

   Colby Martin wrote:

     Below are the two contradictory quotes

     &gt;From Pete Early blog:
     http://www.peteearley.com/blog/2010/07/09/sergei-tretyakov-comrade-j-has-died/
     Helen asked those of us who were his friends to not immediately reveal
     his death until an autopsy could be performed under the supervision of
     the FBI. She was concerned that Sergei's former colleagues in Russia's
     SVR, which replaced the KGB as Russia's foreign intelligence service,
     might attempt to use his unexpected death for propaganda purposes.
     That autopsy has now been completed and it showed no evidence of foul
     play, according to an FBI official who spoke to me off-the-record.

     &gt;From article: Former top Russian spy Sergei Tretyakov dies at 53
     http://www.svherald.com/content/associatedpress/former-top-russian-spy-sergei-tretyakov-dies-53
     The medical examiner's office in Sarasota County, Fla., is conducting an
     autopsy on Tretyakov. A woman who answered the phone at the office said
     it would be completed sometime after July 26.

     -------- Original Message --------

      Subject: Author of Comrade J on Tretyakov's death                       
         Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2010 10:11:42 -0500                                
         From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;                         
     Reply-To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;                           
           To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;, The OS List              
               &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;, Tactical &lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;            

     http://www.peteearley.com/blog/2010/07/09/sergei-tretyakov-comrade-j-has-died/

     Sergei Tretyakov, Comrade J, has died.
     Published by Pete on July 9, 2010 in Books and Personal.
     I am sorry to announce that my good friend, Sergei Tretyakov, the
     subject of my book, Comrade J: The Untold Secrets of Russia's Master Spy
     in America After the End of the Cold War, died unexpectedly on June 13th
     in his home with his wife, Helen.
     Sergei was 53.
     Helen asked those of us who were his friends to not immediately reveal
     his death until an autopsy could be performed under the supervision of
     the FBI. She was concerned that Sergei's former colleagues in Russia's
     SVR, which replaced the KGB as Russia's foreign intelligence service,
     might attempt to use his unexpected death for propaganda purposes.
     That autopsy has now been completed and it showed no evidence of foul
     play, according to an FBI official who spoke to me off-the-record. Helen
     said her husband died from massive cardiac arrest.
     In keeping with Russian Orthodox religious traditions, a private funeral
     was held on the third day after his death. On the ninth day, more than
     200 people attended a private celebration of his life. The guests
     included close friends, neighbors and persons who had worked with him in
     the United States.
     Sergei was called "the most important spy for the U.S. since the
     collapse of the Soviet Union" by an FBI official in my book.
     Unfortunately, because much of what he said is still being used by U. S.
     counter-intelligence officers, it will be years before the true extent
     of his contribution can be made public - if ever.
     Sergei Olegovich Tretyakov was born Oct. 5, 1956 in Moscow and rose
     quickly through the ranks to become the second-in-command of the KGB in
     New York City between 1995 to 2000. As such, he oversaw all Russian spy
     operations against the US and its allies in New York City and within the
     United Nations.
     When he defected on Oct. 11, 2000, with Helen and their daughter,
     Ksenia, the U.S. government took the family into hiding and during the
     next five years, they lived largely "off the grid." It wasn't until
     Comrade J was published and Sergei went on a book tour that his work
     both as a high-ranking KGB/SVR officer and U.S. operative was made
     public. It is thought that he spent at least three years working as a
     U.S. agent while he was still an SVR colonel in New York.
     Sergei, Helen and their daughter became U.S. citizens after they
     defected and although some federal officials feared for their safety,
     Sergei lived openly under his own name without protection - although
     when he traveled overseas, he always had an FBI escort. Sergei was
     convinced that his U.S. citizenship protected him from the SVR, even
     though he continued to publicly criticize his former colleagues,
     especially President Vladimir Putin.
     The recent arrests of eleven Russian "illegals" on June 28th by the FBI
     thrust Sergei's name into the news once again. The fact that he was in
     charge of all covert operations in New York City when several of the
     illegals entered the country suggested that he was aware of their
     operations and quickly led to speculation that he had tipped-off the FBI
     about the ring.
     However, on Thursday, a  informed source told me that Sergei was not
     involved in the case. Sergei told U.S. officials when he was debriefed
     about Russian "illegal" operations, but he did not know the individuals
     who later were arrested, my source said.
     I became close friends with Sergei and Helen while working on my book
     about their life and his career. They insisted that I stay with them in
     their home and during our weeks together, I witnessed first-hand how
     much he and Helen loved each other, their devotion to their daughter,
     and love for their new homeland. I also was delighted to discover that
     Helen was a gourmet cook!
     Sergei dispelled many of the Hollywood stereotypes of a Russian agent.
     He was well-educated, fluent in three languages, quick-witted,
     personable and able to laugh at his own mistakes when he didn't
     understand an American tradition or slang.
     He proved to be a tireless worker when I interviewed him. He would speak
     for ten hours straight, often pacing back-and-forth, in the family room
     of his house as we discussed his career. He had a fabulous memory that
     he had sharpened as a KGB/SVR officer and he refused to speculate or
     exaggerate when he discussed KGB/SVR operations.  He knew his enemies in
     Russia would use the slightest mistake to attack his credibility so he
     was scrupulous in what he said and the charges that he made.
     Having written bestselling books about two American traitors, including
     John Walker Jr., and his Family of Spies,and Aldrich Ames, the CIA
     turncoat, I was struck at how different Sergei was from U.S. traitors.
     Walker and Ames were motivated by greed and money. Sergei did not need
     money. Upon his return to Russia from New York, he was due to be
     promoted to the rank of general, which would have guaranteed him a cushy
     retirement. He had assets in Moscow worth more than two million U.S.
     dollars - money that was stripped from him after he defected.
     It was clear to me early on that he did not swtich sides for financial
     gain, but rather because he had lost faith in Russian leaders and he
     wanted a better life for his young daughter. He liked to say that he did
     not betray his homeland. Rather he and other ordinary citizens in Russia
     had been betrayed by Presidents Boris Yeltsin and Putin after the Soviet
     Union collapsed.
     Neither Walker or Ames ever wanted to become Russian citizens, but
     Sergei and his family relished their U.S. citizenship. Sergei often told
     me that Americans were naive because they took freedoms for granted and
     did not understand how unique our lives here are compared to life in an
     oppressive nation, such as Russia whose leaders often silence their
     critics, especially those in the media, with a bullet.
     One reason why I believe Sergei did not know about the 11 Russians who
     were arrested as illegals is because he did not hold back during our
     interviews in identifying persons whom he claimed were Russian spies.
     Among the individuals identified in my book were a former member of the
     Canadian Parliament, a top-ranking verification expert at the
     International Atomic Energy Agency, and a former U.N. official who
     Sergei helped place in the Oil For Food Program. That UN official
     diverted a half billion US dollars of UN humanitarian relief to Moscow
     under both the Yeltsin and Putin administrations and was rewarded by
     Putin for the thefts. Sergei was disgusted by that thievery and said so.
     In our interviews, he talked repeatedly about how Yeltsin had failed the
     Russian people by becoming a drunken stumble-bum who allowed Oligarchs
     to engorge themselves by stealing government property. He had similar
     harsh criticisms for Putin, whom Sergei described as an insignificant
     KGB officer who later as president surrounded himself with thugs. Their
     primary goal has been to enrich themselves, he charged.
     Sergei asked me to write his story at the suggestion of a director in
     the British intelligence service. They were having dinner when my name
     was mentioned because the director had read my book about Aldrich Ames
     and had admired it. Sergei waived his rights to any advance money from
     the publisher and received less than $10,000 from the book's sales even
     though it was a New York Times bestseller. Money was not his motive in
     telling his story.
     Instead, he hoped to sound a wake-up call about Russia. He was fond of
     saying that the Cold War never ended. Before the collapse of the Soviet
     Union, the KGB had a list of three main adversaries: (1.) The United
     States  (2.) NATO and (3.) China. After the KGB was disbanded and the
     SVR was formed, Sergei said a new edict came down announcing that the
     SVR had three main targets: (1.) The United States (2.) NATO and (3.)
     China.
     "What changed?" he asked, laughing.
     Those of us who were his friends will miss his sense of humor, his
     knowledge about Russia and KGB/SVR spy-craft,  and his almost child-like
     love for his new country.
     I was honored to write his life story and to call him my friend.
     I will miss not hearing his voice when I call.

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

  

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-07-09 18:39:28</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1558278_re-ct-contradictory-quotes-about-tretyakov-autopsy-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1558772</id>
    <title>Re: G3* - CYPRUS/US/RUSSIA - Suspected US spy arrested in Cyprus
</title>
    <description>   score.=C2=A0 This was the one = guy not arrested Sunday, he was involved
   in the operations from Canada and handled a lot of the money.=C2=A0

   Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

     arrest was monday at 3am

               Breaking News: Suspected US spy arrested in Cyprus

              http://www.cyprus-mail.com/cyprus/breaking-news-su=
                    spected-us-spy-arrested-cyprus/20100629

                                     =C2=A0

     Published on June 29, 2010 =

     Robert Christopher Metsos, 55, was arrested at Larnaca airport at 3 am
     while preparing to board a flight to Budapest.

     He is suspected of being involved in a Russian spy ring operating in the
     USA.

     U.S. authorities said the spy ring carried out deep-cover work in the
     United States to recruit political sources and gather information for
     the Russian government.

     Authorities in the US charged 11 individuals with the plot, 10 of whom
     were arrested on Sunday in Boston, New York, New Jersey and Virginia on
     charges including conspiracy to act as unlawful agents of the Russian
     Federation and money laundering.

     Those charged include: Christopher Metsos, Richard Murphy, Cynthia
     Murphy, Donald Heathfield, Tracey Lee Ann Foley, Michael Zottoli,
     Patricia Mills, Juan Lazaro, Vicky Pelaez, Anna Chapman and Mikhail
     Semenko. All but Metsos were arrested on Sunday.

     Metsos was arrested on Monday but was later released on a
     =E2=82=AC20,000 bail after agreeing to surrender his travel documents
     and appear at a police station every day.

     Metsos came to Cyprus on June 17 and stayed at a Larnaca hotel since
     then.

     His extradition hearing will begin on July 29&lt;/= o:p&gt;

     =C2=A0

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-06-29 14:47:42</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-14 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1558772_re-g3-cyprus-us-russia-suspected-us-spy-arrested-in-cyprus-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1559393</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] (more) TrapWire on Kabul Hotel Attack
</title>
    <description>   Two points here:

   1. If they were in fact dressed in Afghan police clothing it brings us
   back to the question we addressed in the afghan weekly a few weeks ago
   where there is concern about militant infiltration into the Afghan
   security forces. This definitely makes things difficult as the Afghan
   security forces are handed over the control which brings us to Sean's
   point about the fact the operation primarily ended with the NATO
   helicopters shooting down 3 men on the roof and even then there was one
   guy just going around in the hotel and it took about 2 hours to contain
   him.

   2. Also if the militants were dressed in Afghan police attire it explains
   how they managed to bypass those multiple layers of defense.

   On Wednesday, 6/29/11 9:27 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

     Nothing to confirm or refute this initial claim. But new reporting
     suggests attackers arrived dressed as Afghan police. This is standard MO
     for Taliban...and many terror groups as you know. Only thing that
     everyone agrees on right now is that this thing was meticulously
     planned, and clearly well surveilled ahead of time. This hotel has
     multiple layers of defense -- including armed guards -- and still the
     bad guys got in. We don't have a single hotel in this country with even
     10% of the security the Intercontinental had. When they decide to start
     targeting hotels here, it'll shooting fish in a barrel.

      

      

     Stormed in force out of a vehicle after one perp detonated a vest at the
     gate  (Mike, think this remains accurate?)

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-06-29 16:46:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1559393_re-alpha-more-trapwire-on-kabul-hotel-attack-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>hoor.jangda@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1562732</id>
    <title>Fwd: [OS] CHINA/CSM/CT- Cisco Poised to Help China Keep an Eye on
 Its	Citizens
</title>
    <description>   Maybe with talk of Trapwire technology and such we can provide some
   insight on this.  The addition of the cameras is not new, I think i had it
   in the bullets sometime earlier this year. 

   -------- Original Message --------

    Subject: [OS] CHINA/CSM/CT- Cisco Poised to Help China Keep an Eye on Its 
             Citizens                                                         
       Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2011 22:52:54 -0500                                  
       From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;                           
   Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                    
         To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                    

       * JULY 5, 2011

   Censorship Inc.
   Cisco Poised to Help China Keep an Eye on Its Citizens
   Read more:
   http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304778304576377141077267316.html#ixzz1RCQsajlK
   By LORETTA CHAO in Beijing and DON CLARK in San Francisco
   [CISCO] Getty Images

   Cameras in Beijing's Tiananmen Square. U.S. firms can sell surveillance
   gear in China, but not equipment that is used only for crime control.

   Western companies including Cisco Systems Inc. are poised to help build an
   ambitious new surveillance project in China-a citywide network of as many
   as 500,000 cameras that officials say will prevent crime but that
   human-rights advocates warn could target political dissent.
   [CISCO_p1]

   The system, being built in the city of Chongqing over the next two to
   three years, is among the largest and most sophisticated
   video-surveillance projects of its kind in China, and perhaps the world.
   Dubbed "Peaceful Chongqing," it is planned to cover a half-million
   intersections, neighborhoods and parks over nearly 400 square miles, an
   area more than 25% larger than New York City.

   The project sheds light on how Western tech companies sell their wares in
   China, the Middle East and other places where there is potential for the
   gear to be used for political purposes and not just safety. The products
   range from Internet-censoring software to sophisticated networking gear.
   China in particular has drawn criticism for treating political dissent as
   a crime and has a track record of using technology to suppress it.

   An examination of the Peaceful Chongqing project by The Wall Street
   Journal shows Cisco is expected to supply networking equipment that is
   essential to operating large and complicated surveillance systems,
   according to people familiar with the deal.

   The U.S. has prohibited export of crime-control products to China (for
   instance, fingerprinting equipment) ever since Beijing's deadly 1989
   Tiananmen Square crackdown. But the U.S. restrictions don't prohibit sale
   of technologies such as cameras that can be used in many ways-to tame,
   say, either traffic jams or democracy marches. This loophole troubles some
   critics. There is no indication that Cisco is selling products customized
   for crime control.
   More

       * Cisco Faces Lawsuits, Criticism Over Past China Activities

   Western companies' pursuit of sales in China underscores a fundamental
   question for businesses and policy makers alike: Should companies be held
   accountable if foreign governments use their products for political
   suppression?

   Cisco was brought in to the Chongqing project by Chinese security company
   Hikvision Digital Technology Co., the project's main contractor, Hikvision
   officials and others say. It is unclear whether Cisco's participation has
   been finalized, although one person familiar with the matter says it is
   close.

   Officials at Cisco, based in San Jose, Calif., declined to discuss its
   possible involvement in detail. A company spokesman stressed that Cisco
   "hasn't sold video cameras or video-surveillance solutions in any of our
   public infrastructure projects in China."

   The company has previously said-including in a June blog post by Cisco's
   general counsel, Mark Chandler-that the company strictly abides by the
   Tiananmen export controls and doesn't supply any gear to China that is
   "customized in any way" to facilitate repressive uses.

   View Full Image
   CISCO_jmp
   CISCO_jmp
   CISCO_jmp

   Cisco is the world's biggest maker of networking equipment, which includes
   routing and switching systems that send data between computers and connect
   systems to the Internet. The company has stirred controversy in the past
   for its China dealings.

   The Chongqing project is also attracting interest from other U.S.
   companies, including Alabama software maker Intergraph Corp.
   Hewlett-Packard Co. also expects to bid on part of the project, according
   to a senior H-P executive.

   The people familiar with the matter said H-P may be looking to supply
   servers or storage equipment for Peaceful Chongqing.

   Asked about concerns about political use of the system, Todd Bradley, an
   executive vice president who oversees H-P's China strategy, said in an
   interview last week in China, "We take them at their word as to the
   usage." He added, "It's not my job to really understand what they're going
   to use it for. Our job is to respond to the bid that they've made."
   Censorship Inc.

       * Mideast Uses Western Tools to Battle the Skype Rebellion 6/1/2011
       * Iran Vows to Unplug Internet 5/28/2011
       * U.S. Products Help Block Mideast Web 3/28/2011

   Another possible participant in the Chongqing project is Intergraph, a
   Huntsville, Ala., company that made a bid through Cisco to provide
   customized software for the effort, said Bob Scott, head of Intergraph's
   security group. It is unclear if the company, a unit of Sweden's Hexagon
   AB, will ultimately be hired.

   Although sale of surveillance technology to repressive nations is
   permissible, some critics have harsh words for companies that do so. "The
   business community is only hearing what it wants to hear and disregarding
   the rest," said Rep. Frank Wolf, a Virginia Republican who co-chairs the
   Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, a nonpartisan rights group made up of
   members of Congress.

   Chongqing, a sprawling metropolis in southwestern China, is one of the
   most populous cities in the nation with an urban population of at least 12
   million. The hillside Yangtze River port, famous for spicy hot-pot and
   often covered in fog, was China's capital from 1938 to 1945. Today, it is
   being developed as a gateway to the country's western hinterland.

   Chongqing has gained prominence the past two years because of its
   Communist Party chief, Bo Xilai, a rising political star who has led a
   controversial crackdown on organized crime that some lawyers have
   criticized for what they say are violations of legal due process.

   View Full Image
   CISCO
   Getty Images

   Chongqing's party chief, Bo Xilai, led a controversial crime crackdown.
   CISCO
   CISCO

   Mr. Bo declined to comment. He is expected to become one of China's top
   leaders next year by being appointed to China's Politburo Standing
   Committee, the nation's top decision-making body.

   Chongqing's government has said it plans to invest more than $800 million
   of its own in building the Peaceful Chongqing system. Another $1.6 billion
   is coming from other, unspecified sources, the city has said. Hikvision's
   president, Hu Yangzhong, said in an interview that government funds would
   go toward building the central surveillance network and installing a
   portion of the cameras, while more cameras would be installed by owners of
   residences, office buildings and others-all of which would be linked to
   the network.

   Video-surveillance systems can serve many purposes and are routinely used
   for benign purposes by cities world-wide to fight crime and ease traffic.
   Still, civil libertarians raise concerns including in the U.S. that the
   technology can invade privacy and is poorly regulated.

   Human-rights advocates say Chinese police have used surveillance footage
   to identify people in political protests. Jailed Chinese artist-activist
   Ai Weiwei, who was released last month, complained before he was
   apprehended on April 3 that police were using cameras to monitor him.

   Corinna-Barbara Francis, a researcher at Amnesty International, said
   surveillance footage has been used to identify and apprehend peaceful
   protesters in China, including in Xinjiang and Tibet. "In China there's
   ample evidence that they use" video surveillance "to crack down and then
   criminalize activity which should not be criminalized," Ms. Francis said.

   The Chongqing government declined to comment, as did China's Ministry of
   Public Security and the State Council Information Office. Chinese leaders
   have long argued that maintaining social stability and economic growth
   takes precedence over political rights.

   Hikvision's president, Mr. Hu, said he believes the project's goal is to
   cut crime, not target political dissidents. "China has a very serious
   public-security problem," he said in an interview last week. He blamed an
   epidemic of robbery and other crimes on the flood of poor migrants into
   China's cities and a growing wealth gap.

   Mr. Hu said Chongqing's new surveillance system will be tied in to an
   information network that Cisco is already building in the city, where
   Cisco has announced a high-profile alliance under a program it calls
   Smart+Connected Communities-an initiative under which Cisco consults with
   governments around the world to use technology to tackle civic problems
   such as transportation, healthcare and education.

   According to the Chongqing government's website, Cisco Chief Executive
   John Chambers told the city's mayor in a meeting last year that he hoped
   the Smart+Connected project could create a "model in Chongqing which can
   be popularized in China."

   Executives at Western companies say they must weigh the possibility that
   technology could be misused against the business risks of missing out on a
   lucrative market. "We do have concerns," said Intergraph's Mr. Scott. "On
   the other hand, we want to do business there," he said, noting that the
   company's software is also used for environmental and other projects in
   China.

   "We're just the technology platform," he said, adding that it is the
   responsibility of the buyers "to meet and adhere to laws and policies" of
   their jurisdictions. Ultimately, Intergraph has "to manage the risk
   against the gain."

   In an April interview with the Journal, Bill Stuntz, general manager of
   Cisco's physical-security business, said Cisco gives careful consideration
   to how its products are used in China and doesn't want them to be used for
   repressive purposes. He declined to discuss specific projects in China but
   noted that sales of security equipment there have been expanding rapidly.
   He said Cisco is providing products that include networking equipment and
   servers along with support for some large video-surveillance systems,
   though not video cameras.

   China has become the fastest growing market for surveillance equipment,
   although it isn't yet the biggest, according to IMS Research, a U.K. firm
   that studies the market. The surveillance markets in the U.S. and Europe
   are growing at single-digit rates while surveillance-related revenue in
   China is growing at 23% a year. Surveillance-equipment sales alone, not
   including networking gear or software, totaled $1.7 billion last year.

   Chongqing's government says on its website that its current surveillance
   system is outdated, allowing police to directly tap into just 15,000 of
   the total 300,000 cameras. It wants the new system to be among the world's
   most advanced.

   Mr. Scott of Intergraph says Chongqing wants not only to increase camera
   count, but also to have video managed and delivered to dozens of police
   precincts and other organizations. The project presents challenges "that
   have not really been done anywhere else in the world," he said.

   Mr. Scott said his company spent three years developing software that
   enables multiple agencies to control cameras and also analyzes video feeds
   for unusual situations like fires or the formation of crowds.

   The number of surveillance cameras in Chinese cities including Chongqing
   appears to dwarf that of other cities around the world, though comparisons
   are tough because cities generally don't disclose their camera counts.

   A 2008 report by the state-run Xinhua news agency said Beijing had some
   280,000 cameras in its system. By comparison, privacy advocates in the
   U.S., including the American Civil Liberties Union, estimate Chicago has
   10,000 cameras. The New York Civil Liberties Union estimated in 2009 that
   there were 8,000 cameras in New York.
   -Kersten Zhang, Yoli Zhang, Jason Dean and Cari Tuna contributed to this
   article.

   Write to Loretta Chao at loretta.chao@wsj.com and Don Clark at
   don.clark@wsj.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 05:55:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1562732_fwd-os-china-csm-ct-cisco-poised-to-help-china-keep-an-eye.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1566478</id>
    <title>comrade J paragraph
</title>
    <description>   Countersurveillance operations dona**t start out of thin air.A  There has
   to be a tip or a clue that puts investigators on the trail of a suspected
   and (especially) undeclared foreign agent. As suggested by interview with
   neighbors of the arrested suspects, none of them displayed unusual
   behavior that would tip them off. All had deep (even if not perfect) cover
   stories that did not raise suspicion. The criminal complaint did not
   suggest how the US government came to suspect these people of reporting
   back to the SVR in Russia, however we noticed that the timing of the
   initiation of these investigations coincides with the time period that a
   high level SVR agent stationed at Russiaa**s UN mission in New York began
   passing information to the US. Sergei Tretyakov (who told his story in the
   book a**Comrade Ja** a** his codename), passed information on to US
   authorities from within the UN mission from 1997 to 2000 before he
   defected to the US. The timing of Tretyakova**s cooperation with the US
   government and the timing of the initiation of the investigations against
   the suspects arrested this week suggests that Tretyakov may have been the
   original source that tipped off the US government. So far, the evidence is
   circumstantial a** the timing and the location match up a** but Tretyakov,
   as the SVR operative at the UN mission, certainly would have been in the
   position to know about the operations involving at least some of the
   individuals arrested June 27. A A 

 --
 Ben West
 Terrorism and Security Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin,TX
 Cell: 512-750-9890
</description>
    <date>2010-06-29 22:30:12</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1566478_comrade-j-paragraph-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ben.west@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1566802</id>
    <title>Re: Insight Request - Turkey-Russia
</title>
    <description>   Reva Bhalla wrote:

     Lauren, this is KICKASS. LOVE IT. Thank you so much for your work on
     this. Have comments in bold below
     On Feb 4, 2010, at 11:25 AM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

       ON NUCLEAR DEAL
       From Reva: Cinar family's contract via ParkTeknic; Russia using this
       deal to show they can build reactors? Edge more into European market?
       Financing? Construction? Kickbacks?
        
       FROM SOURCE 1: deputy in energy ministry
        
       The nuclear deal between Russia and Turkey is still very new since it
       was signed on Jan. 13. Of course many of the details from the previous
       nuclear plan deal are being carried over to this deal, though nothing
       is set yet for it is the technocrats turn to write up the details. For
       now, it is just a political agreement with a few details and many
       proposals.
        
       The preparations for the details to finalize the deal will take
       between four to six months and the final signing should be no later
       than November. The plan is to have the details all worked out before
       President Medvedev goes to Turkey in the fall.
        
       Russia was concerned because of the competition for the other nuclear
       plans for the north part of Turkey by Sinopec and Turkish energy
       company Akenerji. Russia is not quite clear if that project is still
       planned or not.  
        
       I wouldn't call this deal any sort of move for Russia into Europe, for
       the Belene plant is already under construction in Bulgaria and plans
       to pour concrete on the new plant in Belarus will happen before the
       deal is finalized on this Turkish plant.   ok, as i suspected
        
       The deal will be between the same firms as last time: Inter RAO,
       Atomstroiexport, and Park Teknik.
        
       Russia is adamant that it be highly involved in this project on all
       levels-financing, construction, engineering, fuel. The way Putin put
       it in his meeting was that Russia would provide the loans, provide the
       equipment, oversee the local construction companies, take on 20-30
       percent of the contracts in Russian firms, provide the nuclear fuel
       and reprocess the spent nuclear fuel.   wow, that's pretty generous of
       Russia, no? seems like they're getting alot in return iwth the
       kickbacks listed below.
        
       Taking the spent nuclear fuel is a huge cost that Putin said Russia is
       willing to do at a discount. It was one of the aspects that Turkey
       really liked in this deal. Russia is also willing to give discounts in
       other areas, as well as, give very attractive rates on financing--
       though this is all to be worked out over the next 6 months.
        
       The deal wasn't just for the nuclear plant but Turkey is also going to
       allow Russia's Inter RAO to build a series of electricity power plant
       in the country as well-a very big project and one that Inter RAO has
       lobbied for for some time.
        
       Other kickbacks? There are a lot of deals about to go down between
       Russia and Turkey. It isn't about just the nuclear plant or the
       pipeline, but an overall understanding with a lot of things that could
       be considered kickbacks one way or another. Russia is being given the
       opportunity for first bid on some Turkish state assets  ooh, can you
       find out which ones? He completely clammed up on this after I pushed,
       so I'm trying other sources to see if I can find out what. about to be
       privatized; Russia and Turkey will be nixing their visa regime (an
       important symbolic gesture in Moscow's mind); Turkey is also asking
       its banks to use more rubles and will be settling some payments using
       the ruble; Turkey will continue to putter about any firm commitment to
       Nabucco. Russia is pretty happy over these deals.

       ON SAMSUN-CEYHAN PIPELINE:  
       From Reva: Built by Eni &amp; Calik; Russia to supply the crude?
       Financing? Constructing? Russian kickbacks?
        
       FROM SOURCE 1: deputy in energy ministry
        
       The crude for the S-C pipeline will come from both Russia and
       Kazakhstan. Turkmenistan would also like to give crude, but they have
       not been in on the new set of negotiations.
        
       From what my source has heard, Eni has offered $4 billion for the
       "project" this is 1.5 for the pipeline and then 2.5 for electricity
       plants that have been earmarked onto this project (a Russia part of
       the deal).
        
       As far as the Chalik Group, they were not in on the negotiations and
       have not negotiated with Russia one-on-one as far as the S-C pipeline.
       Instead, Erdogan negotiated this deal, though it is not as if Chalik
       and Erdogan are separate. Their political pacts stretch in deals
       across the former Soviet states. Chalik has received much financial
       backing from his relationship with Erdogan, who has set state banks to
       backing many of Chalik's enterprises. Chalik also has a very close
       personal relationship with President Gul. Chalik does not like to do
       business personally with Russia when he can help it. Russia also
       prefers to do business with Erdogan which represents him essentially.
        
       So as far as the S-C is concerned, it is a Russia-Turkey deal, not a
       Chalik-Russia deal. It does not matter to us who Ergodan chooses to
       run the line on his side.  makes sense. Calik is Erdogan's project
        
        
       FROM SOURCE 2 - part of foreign affairs thinktank, energy specialist
        
       The S-C pipeline is being renegotiated after Erdogan's trip to Moscow.
       Turkey agreed to allow Russia a third of the project, moving the other
       two partners of Chalik and Eni to a third each as well. However, Italy
       has not yet agreed to this. why is Italy resisting? it seemed to me
       that they weren't resisting, but had yet to be consulted. Russia feels
       that there will be no problem in getting Italy to agree to it as long
       as Turkey sticks to this new deal. This will create a tripartite
       consortium for the project.
        
       Both Rosneft and Transneft are interested in not only being part of
       the tripartite, but should the consortium stay the 50-50 venture only
       between Eni and Chalik, then both Rosneft and Transneft are interested
       in being the construction companies in the project instead.
        
       The big competitor for the S-C pipeline, the Burgas-Alexandropoulis
       pipeline, has been halted though its already under construction with
       Transneft as a partner. The Bulgarian government has been testy
       recently, something that Russia doesn't want to put up with Sofia and
       is letting it know that there are other options for Russian projects
       and crude.
        
       The agreement between Turkey and Russia was not only over the
       pipeline, but the so-called kickbacks you mention are in further
       agreements coming up in which Russia will take part in privatization
       of Turkey's state assets. Russia of course doesn't call it kickbacks,
       but "asset swaps."
        
       I have not heard of any trades between deals in Turkmenistan over the
       S-C deal.
        
        
       ON CALIK'S DEALS IN TURKMENISTAN
        
       FROM SOURCE 3 - Turkmen deputy minister
        
       There is a long, deep and personal history between Chalik and
       Turkmenistan, much of which does not have to do with Russia. Ahmet
       Chalik was a very close personal friend of blessed Turkmenbashi. Ahmet
       Chalik advised Turkmenbashi on many foreign matters, set up many tasks
       for the leader and even held many illustrious government positions.
        
       It is of my opinion-and I do not wish to speak ill of my departed
       leader-that Chalik fed on Turkmenbashi's ego, promising him that he
       could help Niyazov spread his influence into Turkey and other
       Turkish-speaking lands. It was Chalik who translated the Ruhnama into
       Turkish, English and French (Chalik even used the Ruhnama in his
       meetings where Turkish media was present in order to promote the book
       on behalf of Niyazov). It was Chalik who set up his friends from
       Turkey-Polimeks Group-to construct the great gold statues and arches
       of dedicated to the leader in Turkmenistan. wow!! love it!!

       Chalik was the contractor on the construction projects dedicated to
       Turkmenbashi like the National Library, Center for Culture and World
       of Turkmen Fairy Tales.
        
       Chalik truly was a slick eel in his dealing with Turkmenbashi, not
       that our departed leader knew this. In return Chalik reaped enormous
       wealth, deals and business in Turkmenistan-more than I had seen from
       anyone else in this country. Chalik was given rights to a series of
       textile plants (especially of the highly valued cotton trade from
       Turkmenistan, much to Mary's dismay). Chalik's GAP Insaat built
       factories-paper, cement, ammonia, fertilizer.
        
       When Chalik was given the S-C pipeline, he swore that it would be only
       Turkmen crude to fill the line. Even when Erdogan met with Niyazov in
       2003, Erdogan was the political force behind the deal. Erdogan used
       Chalik to form his own relationship with Turkmenbashi. Back in 2003,
       this was a deal between Turkmenistan and Turkey to not use Russian
       crude-something that greatly angered Moscow.
        
       It was Erdogan, Gul and Chalik who stood side-by-side at Niyazov's
       funeral representing Turkey.
        
       But everything changed with Turkmenbashi's death. Berdimukhammedov is
       not so friendly with Chalik, Erdogan or Gul. He does not trust their
       agenda and can not be swayed by flattery or ego-stroking. In
       Berdimukhammedov's view, Chalik has too much pushed his Turkish social
       and political viewpoints into Turkmenistan. Chalik has attempted to
       spread Islamic education and business principles into Turkmenistan. In
       short, Chalik is dangerous.
        
       So from what I know, Chalik can not even use Erdogan to strike deals
       on his behalf here in Turkmenistan. I have heard of some deals being
       struck by the Russians on the Turk's behalf. But the Russians are
       striking deals for many of the Turkish firms, not just Chalik. Russia
       has helped protect Turkish deals that Berdimukhammedov wanted to close
       down from Engin Group, Erdemir, Som Petrol, Ichkale and others.
        
        
       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       Stratfor
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-02-04 18:43:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-19 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1566802_re-insight-request-turkey-russia-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1568385</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [CT] Fwd: [OS] CHINA/CSM/CT- Cisco Poised to Help
	China Keep an Eye on Its	Citizens
</title>
    <description>   I'm sitting here with a cisco guy.  What is the trapwire tech?  He's not
   involved with this project but let me know if there are any ques and I'll
   see what he can find out.

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Jul 4, 2011, at 8:55 PM, Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

     Maybe with talk of Trapwire technology and such we can provide some
     insight on this.  The addition of the cameras is not new, I think i had
     it in the bullets sometime earlier this year. 

     -------- Original Message --------

      Subject: [OS] CHINA/CSM/CT- Cisco Poised to Help China Keep an Eye on   
               Its Citizens                                                   
         Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2011 22:52:54 -0500                                
         From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;                         
     Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                  
           To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                  

         * JULY 5, 2011

     Censorship Inc.
     Cisco Poised to Help China Keep an Eye on Its Citizens
     Read more:
     http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304778304576377141077267316.html#ixzz1RCQsajlK
     By LORETTA CHAO in Beijing and DON CLARK in San Francisco
     [CISCO] Getty Images

     Cameras in Beijing's Tiananmen Square. U.S. firms can sell surveillance
     gear in China, but not equipment that is used only for crime control.

     Western companies including Cisco Systems Inc. are poised to help build
     an ambitious new surveillance project in Chinaa**a citywide network of
     as many as 500,000 cameras that officials say will prevent crime but
     that human-rights advocates warn could target political dissent.
     [CISCO_p1]

     The system, being built in the city of Chongqing over the next two to
     three years, is among the largest and most sophisticated
     video-surveillance projects of its kind in China, and perhaps the world.
     Dubbed "Peaceful Chongqing," it is planned to cover a half-million
     intersections, neighborhoods and parks over nearly 400 square miles, an
     area more than 25% larger than New York City.

     The project sheds light on how Western tech companies sell their wares
     in China, the Middle East and other places where there is potential for
     the gear to be used for political purposes and not just safety. The
     products range from Internet-censoring software to sophisticated
     networking gear. China in particular has drawn criticism for treating
     political dissent as a crime and has a track record of using technology
     to suppress it.

     An examination of the Peaceful Chongqing project by The Wall Street
     Journal shows Cisco is expected to supply networking equipment that is
     essential to operating large and complicated surveillance systems,
     according to people familiar with the deal.

     The U.S. has prohibited export of crime-control products to China (for
     instance, fingerprinting equipment) ever since Beijing's deadly 1989
     Tiananmen Square crackdown. But the U.S. restrictions don't prohibit
     sale of technologies such as cameras that can be used in many waysa**to
     tame, say, either traffic jams or democracy marches. This loophole
     troubles some critics. There is no indication that Cisco is selling
     products customized for crime control.
     More

         * Cisco Faces Lawsuits, Criticism Over Past China Activities

     Western companies' pursuit of sales in China underscores a fundamental
     question for businesses and policy makers alike: Should companies be
     held accountable if foreign governments use their products for political
     suppression?

     Cisco was brought in to the Chongqing project by Chinese security
     company Hikvision Digital Technology Co., the project's main contractor,
     Hikvision officials and others say. It is unclear whether Cisco's
     participation has been finalized, although one person familiar with the
     matter says it is close.

     Officials at Cisco, based in San Jose, Calif., declined to discuss its
     possible involvement in detail. A company spokesman stressed that Cisco
     "hasn't sold video cameras or video-surveillance solutions in any of our
     public infrastructure projects in China."

     The company has previously saida**including in a June blog post by
     Cisco's general counsel, Mark Chandlera**that the company strictly
     abides by the Tiananmen export controls and doesn't supply any gear to
     China that is "customized in any way" to facilitate repressive uses.

     View Full Image
     CISCO_jmp
     CISCO_jmp
     CISCO_jmp

     Cisco is the world's biggest maker of networking equipment, which
     includes routing and switching systems that send data between computers
     and connect systems to the Internet. The company has stirred controversy
     in the past for its China dealings.

     The Chongqing project is also attracting interest from other U.S.
     companies, including Alabama software maker Intergraph Corp.
     Hewlett-Packard Co. also expects to bid on part of the project,
     according to a senior H-P executive.

     The people familiar with the matter said H-P may be looking to supply
     servers or storage equipment for Peaceful Chongqing.

     Asked about concerns about political use of the system, Todd Bradley, an
     executive vice president who oversees H-P's China strategy, said in an
     interview last week in China, "We take them at their word as to the
     usage." He added, "It's not my job to really understand what they're
     going to use it for. Our job is to respond to the bid that they've
     made."
     Censorship Inc.

         * Mideast Uses Western Tools to Battle the Skype Rebellion 6/1/2011
         * Iran Vows to Unplug Internet 5/28/2011
         * U.S. Products Help Block Mideast Web 3/28/2011

     Another possible participant in the Chongqing project is Intergraph, a
     Huntsville, Ala., company that made a bid through Cisco to provide
     customized software for the effort, said Bob Scott, head of Intergraph's
     security group. It is unclear if the company, a unit of Sweden's Hexagon
     AB, will ultimately be hired.

     Although sale of surveillance technology to repressive nations is
     permissible, some critics have harsh words for companies that do so.
     "The business community is only hearing what it wants to hear and
     disregarding the rest," said Rep. Frank Wolf, a Virginia Republican who
     co-chairs the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, a nonpartisan rights
     group made up of members of Congress.

     Chongqing, a sprawling metropolis in southwestern China, is one of the
     most populous cities in the nation with an urban population of at least
     12 million. The hillside Yangtze River port, famous for spicy hot-pot
     and often covered in fog, was China's capital from 1938 to 1945. Today,
     it is being developed as a gateway to the country's western hinterland.

     Chongqing has gained prominence the past two years because of its
     Communist Party chief, Bo Xilai, a rising political star who has led a
     controversial crackdown on organized crime that some lawyers have
     criticized for what they say are violations of legal due process.

     View Full Image
     CISCO
     Getty Images

     Chongqing's party chief, Bo Xilai, led a controversial crime crackdown.
     CISCO
     CISCO

     Mr. Bo declined to comment. He is expected to become one of China's top
     leaders next year by being appointed to China's Politburo Standing
     Committee, the nation's top decision-making body.

     Chongqing's government has said it plans to invest more than $800
     million of its own in building the Peaceful Chongqing system. Another
     $1.6 billion is coming from other, unspecified sources, the city has
     said. Hikvision's president, Hu Yangzhong, said in an interview that
     government funds would go toward building the central surveillance
     network and installing a portion of the cameras, while more cameras
     would be installed by owners of residences, office buildings and
     othersa**all of which would be linked to the network.

     Video-surveillance systems can serve many purposes and are routinely
     used for benign purposes by cities world-wide to fight crime and ease
     traffic. Still, civil libertarians raise concerns including in the U.S.
     that the technology can invade privacy and is poorly regulated.

     Human-rights advocates say Chinese police have used surveillance footage
     to identify people in political protests. Jailed Chinese artist-activist
     Ai Weiwei, who was released last month, complained before he was
     apprehended on April 3 that police were using cameras to monitor him.

     Corinna-Barbara Francis, a researcher at Amnesty International, said
     surveillance footage has been used to identify and apprehend peaceful
     protesters in China, including in Xinjiang and Tibet. "In China there's
     ample evidence that they use" video surveillance "to crack down and then
     criminalize activity which should not be criminalized," Ms. Francis
     said.

     The Chongqing government declined to comment, as did China's Ministry of
     Public Security and the State Council Information Office. Chinese
     leaders have long argued that maintaining social stability and economic
     growth takes precedence over political rights.

     Hikvision's president, Mr. Hu, said he believes the project's goal is to
     cut crime, not target political dissidents. "China has a very serious
     public-security problem," he said in an interview last week. He blamed
     an epidemic of robbery and other crimes on the flood of poor migrants
     into China's cities and a growing wealth gap.

     Mr. Hu said Chongqing's new surveillance system will be tied in to an
     information network that Cisco is already building in the city, where
     Cisco has announced a high-profile alliance under a program it calls
     Smart+Connected Communitiesa**an initiative under which Cisco consults
     with governments around the world to use technology to tackle civic
     problems such as transportation, healthcare and education.

     According to the Chongqing government's website, Cisco Chief Executive
     John Chambers told the city's mayor in a meeting last year that he hoped
     the Smart+Connected project could create a "model in Chongqing which can
     be popularized in China."

     Executives at Western companies say they must weigh the possibility that
     technology could be misused against the business risks of missing out on
     a lucrative market. "We do have concerns," said Intergraph's Mr. Scott.
     "On the other hand, we want to do business there," he said, noting that
     the company's software is also used for environmental and other projects
     in China.

     "We're just the technology platform," he said, adding that it is the
     responsibility of the buyers "to meet and adhere to laws and policies"
     of their jurisdictions. Ultimately, Intergraph has "to manage the risk
     against the gain."

     In an April interview with the Journal, Bill Stuntz, general manager of
     Cisco's physical-security business, said Cisco gives careful
     consideration to how its products are used in China and doesn't want
     them to be used for repressive purposes. He declined to discuss specific
     projects in China but noted that sales of security equipment there have
     been expanding rapidly. He said Cisco is providing products that include
     networking equipment and servers along with support for some large
     video-surveillance systems, though not video cameras.

     China has become the fastest growing market for surveillance equipment,
     although it isn't yet the biggest, according to IMS Research, a U.K.
     firm that studies the market. The surveillance markets in the U.S. and
     Europe are growing at single-digit rates while surveillance-related
     revenue in China is growing at 23% a year. Surveillance-equipment sales
     alone, not including networking gear or software, totaled $1.7 billion
     last year.

     Chongqing's government says on its website that its current surveillance
     system is outdated, allowing police to directly tap into just 15,000 of
     the total 300,000 cameras. It wants the new system to be among the
     world's most advanced.

     Mr. Scott of Intergraph says Chongqing wants not only to increase camera
     count, but also to have video managed and delivered to dozens of police
     precincts and other organizations. The project presents challenges "that
     have not really been done anywhere else in the world," he said.

     Mr. Scott said his company spent three years developing software that
     enables multiple agencies to control cameras and also analyzes video
     feeds for unusual situations like fires or the formation of crowds.

     The number of surveillance cameras in Chinese cities including Chongqing
     appears to dwarf that of other cities around the world, though
     comparisons are tough because cities generally don't disclose their
     camera counts.

     A 2008 report by the state-run Xinhua news agency said Beijing had some
     280,000 cameras in its system. By comparison, privacy advocates in the
     U.S., including the American Civil Liberties Union, estimate Chicago has
     10,000 cameras. The New York Civil Liberties Union estimated in 2009
     that there were 8,000 cameras in New York.
     a**Kersten Zhang, Yoli Zhang, Jason Dean and Cari Tuna contributed to
     this article.

     Write to Loretta Chao at loretta.chao@wsj.com and Don Clark at
     don.clark@wsj.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 06:03:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1568385_re-eastasia-ct-fwd-os-china-csm-ct-cisco-poised-to-help.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>richmond@core.stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1568426</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] [OS] CHINA/CSM - Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in
 fraud probe
</title>
    <description>   Trapwire is software that integrates your security video hardware.

   On 7/5/11 1:22 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

     I agree with Alibaba and had flagged that too.  I didn't see the mention
     of trapwire in the story on Cisco.  Maybe I missed it.  Yes, keep me
     posted on any questions and I'll see what my contact can dig up.

     On 7/4/11 11:18 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       This is also a pretty good CSM topic.  some college kids running a
       scam through Alibaba (chinese ebay), took in a good amount of money. 

       If we had some good 'redism' related incidents, maybe I could write on
       that, but we'd need some very concise points to make. 

       Let me know what you guys think of this and the surveillance camera
       topic.

       Jen, I assume that Trapwire is a competitor to Cisco, but I'm not
       sure.  I don't know if trapwire makes the actual cameras or just does
       the analysis.   I won't have real questions till morning. 

       On 7/2/11 11:00 AM, Kevin Stech wrote:

         Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in fraud probe

         02 July 2011 - 08H10 

         http://www.france24.com/en/20110702-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-fraud-probe

          

         AFP - Police have arrested 36 people in southeast China following an
         investigation into fraud on e-commerce site Alibaba.com and other
         websites that duped buyers out of more than $6 million.

          

         Alizila.com, Alibaba's corporate news website, reported earlier this
         week the suspects were detained in Fujian province's Putian city in
         April. John Spelich, the firm's spokesman, confirmed the report to
         AFP on Saturday.

          

         The people arrested allegedly operated a criminal gang that used
         fake IDs to open more than 100 "Gold Supplier" accounts on
         Alibaba.com. This designation is given to those certified as highly
         trusted suppliers by the firm.

          

         This allowed the suspects to pose as legitimate companies selling to
         overseas businesses that source goods through Alibaba.com. Police
         said the alleged scammers also used other international trading
         websites.

          

         Alibaba.com, based in the eastern city of Hangzhou, has grown into
         one of China's largest Internet companies by matching mainland
         manufacturers and wholesalers with buyers around the world.

          

         But its reputation took a hit in February when the firm announced
         the resignation of chief executive David Wei and head of operations
         Elvis Lee after fraud was uncovered on the site.

          

         Wei and Lee were not involved in the scams but resigned because they
         took responsibility for "systemic breakdowns" that allowed the fraud
         to happen, Alibaba said at the time.

          

         But according to the Alizila report, the fraud was "sometimes
         abetted by Alibaba.com employees." But Spelich said Saturday none of
         the 36 arrested worked at the company.

          

         He added the number of fraud complaints received by the website in
         June was down 70 percent from February after Alibaba toughened
         procedures and other security measures.

          

         The report said Alibaba had refunded $1.9 million to those who lost
         their money to the alleged scammers.

         Click here to find out more!

          

         Kevin Stech

         Director of Research | STRATFOR

         kevin.stech@stratfor.com

         +1 (512) 744-4086

          

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 13:35:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1568426_re-ct-os-china-csm-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-in.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1568884</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
   height.

   On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

     Was the shooter a Libyan?

     On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:25:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1568884_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>hoor.jangda@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1569288</id>
    <title>[TACTICAL] Fwd: 60 Minutes segment on NYPD counter-terrorism
</title>
    <description>   Note their TrapWire intuitive video surveillance capabilities.  NYPD has
   done what no US Govt Agency has been able to do in the CT arena. 

   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: 60 Minutes segment on NYPD counter-terrorism                      
      Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2011 11:45:34 -0500                                   
      From: Grant Perry &lt;grant.perry@stratfor.com&gt;                            
        To: Fred Burton &lt;fred.burton@stratfor.com&gt;                            
        CC: Brian Genchur &lt;brian.genchur@stratfor.com&gt;, Andrew Damon          
            &lt;andrew.damon@stratfor.com&gt;                                       

                      Fighting terrorism in New York City

   Grant Perry
   Sr VP, Multimedia &amp; Partnerships
   STRATFOR
   221 W. 6th St., Ste 400
   Austin, TX  78733
   +1.512.744.4323 
   grant.perry@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-09-26 19:54:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1569288_-tactical-fwd-60-minutes-segment-on-nypd-counter-terrorism-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1571365</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111
</title>
    <description>   this dude really gives the impression that Moscow calls the shots in Kiev

   so basically, Med gets pissed b/c Timo is blowing Putin and not him, so he
   whines to Putin and says drop the B and get behind Yanu like me. Putin
   says fine, Yanu gets excited and oversteps his boundaries, and now Putin
   is like fix this shit Med and Med is like okay, but we dont know what Med
   is actually gonna do to slap Yanu around

   so what's the couterargument to this? Does Russia really have this much
   influence over the situation?  this is something we need to address in
   ukraine reassessment

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marc Lanthemann" &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

   CODE: UA111
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Kiev
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch.
   But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps
   this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to
   begin with.

    

   You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in
   power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew
   Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to
   solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be
   Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most
   easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got
   her in trouble and arrested.

    

   But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no
   respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev
   made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a
   deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if
   Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being
   the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU,
   military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension
   it had been pushing for.

    

   So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009,
   the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing
   to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of
   demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally.

    

   Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev
   to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing
   against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever
   will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-09-14 20:55:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1571365_re-alpha-insight-ukraine-moscow-kiev-spat-ua111-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1572768</id>
    <title>[TACTICAL] Fwd: Sad news: The loss of a national treasure
</title>
    <description>   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: Sad news: The loss of a national treasure    
      Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2011 17:50:55 -0400              
      From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt; 
        To: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;            

   Fred,

    

   Not sure if you'd ever met Brian. Great man, and the father-in-law of one
   of our employees at TrapWire. I had intended to approach you and arrange
   one of Brian's fascinating presentations on the Hansen case for STRATFOR.
   I guess I should have moved quicker. A shock to us all.  Mike

    

    

   +------------------------------------------------------------------------+ 
   |[IMG]                                                                   | 
   |------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
   |Dear Friends of IWP,                         |Kelley                    | 
   |                                             |                          | 
   |It is with great sadness that I have to      |Above: The late Professor | 
   |report to you the death of our colleague,    |Brian Kelley              | 
   |Professor Brian Kelley.  He died suddenly and|                          | 
   |unexpectedly yesterday at home in his sleep. |Upcoming Events at IWP    | 
   |                                             |                          | 
   |                                             |Intermarium at Dawn: From | 
   |Brian served for many years at IWP as a      |its Early history through | 
   |professor of counterintelligence, where he   |the Mongol Conquest       | 
   |taught one of the most unique courses in the |September 21              | 
   |nation on counterintelligence case studies.  |2:00 PM                   | 
   |He had a distinguished career as an          |                          | 
   |intelligence officer in the Air Force and the|Poetry in Islamic Culture:| 
   |Central Intelligence Agency, where he was    |A lecture with Amb. Akbar | 
   |involved in a number of historic espionage   |Ahmed                     | 
   |cases.                                       |September 29              | 
   |                                             |4:30 PM                   | 
   |Late in his career as a senior CIA official, |                          | 
   |Brian and his family suffered greatly, as he |Movie Night: Black Hawk   | 
   |had been placed under suspicion for being a  |Down                      | 
   |Soviet "mole" in our intelligence community  |September 30, 2011        | 
   |who had compromised a vast number of our     |6:00 PM                   | 
   |nation's most sensitive secrets.             |                          | 
   |                                             |Intermarium: The Golden   | 
   |Fortunately, the CIA succeeded in recruiting |Age and the Calamity,     | 
   |an intelligence source in Russia who revealed|XV-XIXth centuries        | 
   |who the real mole was: Robert Hanssen, who   |October 5, 2011           | 
   |was subsequently arrested, convicted, and    |2:00 PM                   | 
   |incarcerated.  The grace with which Brian    |                          | 
   |handled this situation, and continued to     |American Traitors: Fathers| 
   |serve his country in the absence of a formal |and Sons                  | 
   |apology, made Brian a walking lesson in      |October 7, 2011           | 
   |forgiveness and leadership for anyone who    |6:30 PM                   | 
   |knew him.                                    |                          | 
   |                                             |Support the Annual        | 
   |Since those painful days, Brian taught here  |                          | 
   |at IWP, sharing his extraordinary experience |         Fund, Donate     | 
   |and wisdom with successive classes of IWP    |Online                    | 
   |students.  As many of you know, the Institute|                          | 
   |has arguably the most serious                |[IMG]  Twitter logo       | 
   |counterintelligence studies program in       |                          | 
   |America, and Brian's role on the faculty was |                          | 
   |a central reason why this should have been   |                          | 
   |so.                                          |                          | 
   |                                             |                          | 
   |Brian was one of the staunchest supporters of|                          | 
   |the IWP mission.  He was a patriot and a     |                          | 
   |happy warrior, constantly dedicated not only |                          | 
   |to the education of his students, but to     |                          | 
   |helping them launch their careers in         |                          | 
   |positions that were fully commensurate with  |                          | 
   |the advanced education that they had received|                          | 
   |from him and his fellow professors here at   |                          | 
   |the Institute.  He initiated a pathbreaking  |                          | 
   |program where strategically important        |                          | 
   |intelligence contracting firms have hired IWP|                          | 
   |students as interns and as full time         |                          | 
   |employees.  His program has set the standard |                          | 
   |for similar arrangements with other major    |                          | 
   |contracting companies, whose services to the |                          | 
   |nation are every bit as strategic as work    |                          | 
   |done within the various sensitive government |                          | 
   |agencies themselves.                         |                          | 
   |                                             |                          | 
   |Brian was generous in his readiness to       |                          | 
   |organize extracurricular lectures and to     |                          | 
   |other special events.  He was an inspiring   |                          | 
   |leader who brought an extraordinary esprit de|                          | 
   |corps to our community, for which I will be  |                          | 
   |eternally grateful.  I know that, in the few |                          | 
   |hours since his death, many of our students  |                          | 
   |and alumni have used such phrases as "an     |                          | 
   |American hero," "a true patriot," "an        |                          | 
   |incredible professor," and "an inspiration"  |                          | 
   |in describing Brian.  America has lost one of|                          | 
   |its greatest sons, but it is clear that      |                          | 
   |Brian's legacy will live on through his      |                          | 
   |students and their continuing service to the |                          | 
   |nation.                                      |                          | 
   |                                             |                          | 
   |All of us at IWP extend his wife, Trish, his |                          | 
   |children, his grandchildren, and his longtime|                          | 
   |friends and colleagues our sincerest         |                          | 
   |condolences.  If you would like to send a    |                          | 
   |personal tribute or expression of sympathy,  |                          | 
   |please send your thoughts to Kathy Carroll   |                          | 
   |at: carroll@iwp.edu.                         |                          | 
   |                                             |                          | 
   |Funeral arrangements will be made known to   |                          | 
   |the IWP community as soon as they become     |                          | 
   |available.                                   |                          | 
   |                                             |                          | 
   |IWP will honor Brian's memory on October 7 at|                          | 
   |the event he organized with Bryan Denson on  |                          | 
   |"American Traitors: Fathers and Sons."  I    |                          | 
   |hope that you will join us.                  |                          | 
   |                                             |                          | 
   |Sincerely,                                   |                          | 
   |                                             |                          | 
   |John Lenczowski                              |                          | 
   |Founder and President                        |                          | 
   |------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
   |[IMG]                                                                   | 
   |------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
   |------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
   |If you do not wish to receive any further e-mails, please click here to | 
   |                       manage your subscriptions.                       | 
   |------------------------------------------------------------------------| 
   +------------------------------------------------------------------------+ 
</description>
    <date>2011-09-20 23:57:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1572768_-tactical-fwd-sad-news-the-loss-of-a-national-treasure-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1574481</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Once we do know, then we will know who was behind it.

   Until then, this is all conjecture and opinion.  And you know what
   opinions are like.

   On 7/22/11 9:13 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     We don't know

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:12:04 -0500 (CDT)
     To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
     Was the shooter a Libyan?

     On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:15:11</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1574481_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1576235</id>
    <title>Re: [MESA] [OS] TURKEY - Naval forces junta planned to	undermineAKParty
 with non-Muslim assassinations
</title>
    <description>   It is owned by a publishing house called "Alkim". Not owned by one of the
   big media groups. Two senior columnists and general directors:
   - Ahmet Altan: A prominent Turkish novelist. Comes from a Altan family.
   His father is Cetin Altan (journalist of Milliyet and former deputy). His
   brother is Mehmet Altan. He is an economist involved in politics more as
   an intellectual.
   - Yasemin Congar: Former CNNTURK correspondent to Washington DC.

   I don't know their relation with AKP. They don't always write pro-AKP but
   of course everything anti-TSK is in favor of AKP. The most important news
   of Taraf (at least according to me) was this: PKK attacked a border check
   point last year and killed eight soldiers. Taraf published satellite
   pictures of terrorists approaching to the check-point eight hours before
   the attack and accused the army of failing to take action against them.
   Plus, it found out that the most high-ranking soldiers of that unit left
   the commandment that day. Gen. Basbug could not give a satisfactory
   answer.

   Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     Who owns it and what is its relationship to the AKP? How old is it and
     how large of a circulation?

     ---

     Sent from my BlackBerry device on the Rogers Wireless Network

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Michael Wilson &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: Thu, 19 Nov 2009 16:57:51 -0600
     To: &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;; Middle East AOR&lt;mesa@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [MESA] [OS] TURKEY - Naval forces junta planned to
     undermine AKParty with non-Muslim assassinations
     This is what Emre's turkey media list had to say about it

     Taraf: Liberal-Democrat, anti-TSK. Almost all documents we see in media
     about TSK (coup strategies, weaknesses of TSK during PKK operations
     etc.) are published by Taraf.

     Kamran Bokhari wrote:

       Isn't Taraf a pro-AKP paper?

       ---

       Sent from my BlackBerry device on the Rogers Wireless Network

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Michael Wilson &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
       Date: Thu, 19 Nov 2009 16:49:39 -0600
       To: Middle East AOR&lt;mesa@stratfor.com&gt;
       Subject: Re: [MESA] [OS] TURKEY - Naval forces junta planned to
       undermine AK Party with non-Muslim assassinations
       wow, that sounds pretty hardcore, what's the plausibility of this/how
       does it coming out now affect what's been going on in Turkey between
       the military and the AKP

       emre?

       Emre Dogru wrote:

         http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/news-193416-naval-forces-junta-planned-to-undermine-ak-party-with-non-muslim-assassinations.html
         Naval forces junta planned to undermine AK Party with non-Muslim
         assassinations

         An anti-democratic formation within the Naval Forces Command planned
         to destroy the governing Justice and Development Party (AK Party) by
         assassinating prominent non-Muslim figures in Turkey and putting the
         blame for the killings on the party, Taraf daily reported in its
         headline story on Thursday.

         The plan was detailed in a CD seized in the office of retired Maj.
         Levent Bektas, who was arrested in April for suspected links to a
         large cache of munitions unearthed during excavations on land owned
         by the Istek Foundation in Istanbul's Poyrazko:y district. That
         discovery came as part of the investigation into Ergenekon, a
         clandestine gang whose suspected members are currently standing
         trial on charges of having plotted to overthrow the government.

         Police raided Bektas's office shortly after the discovery and seized
         a large number of documents and CDs. A technical analysis showed
         that a sinister plan against the country's non-Muslim population was
         detailed in one of the CDs, called the "Cage Operation Action Plan."
         The plan was signed by Lt. Col. Ercan Kirec,tepe and was planned to
         be put into operation by a team of 41 members of the Naval Forces
         Command. The hoped-for result from the assassinations of prominent
         non-Muslim figures and propaganda and would be an increase in
         internal and external pressure on the AK Party, leading to its
         demise in politics, according to the plan.

         The action plan would be implemented to lend support to the suspects
         arrested so far as part of the Ergenekon investigation; render
         ineffective so-called psychological warfare waged by the AK Party
         and its supporters (against the military); change the course of the
         agenda in Turkey; boost the morale of the junta within the Naval
         Forces Command; and win the appreciation and support of the public.
         The blame for each of the assassinations by the junta would be put
         on the AK Party.

         The plan was divided into four phases; "Preparation," "Raising
         Fear," "Shaping Public Opinion" and "Action."

         As part of the "Preparation" phase, the names and addresses of the
         country's prominent non-Muslims would be determined. Then it would
         be ascertained to which newspapers and magazines they subscribe;
         which schools non-Muslims work for or send their children to; which
         associations or foundations they are members of; which places of
         worship they frequent; and where they hold their religious
         celebrations and rituals.

         Then the action plan would jump to the second phase, which consisted
         of posting the subscribers of a Turkish Armenian biweekly, Agos, on
         a number of Web sites, especially the "reactionary" ones. The
         editor-in-chief of Agos, Hrant Dink, was shot dead in 2007 by an
         ultranationalist Turkish adolescent. Letters that included
         threatening messages would be sent to Agos subscribers, and they
         would also receive threatening phone calls. Similar messages would
         be written on a number of walls of buildings in the Adalar district,
         which is home to hundreds of non-Muslim families.

         In the "Shaping Public Opinion" phase, the list of Agos subscribers
         would make its way into some newspapers, and fabricated reports on
         the list would feature in those newspapers. TV debates would focus
         on the reports and columnists would be urged to write columns on
         them. The AK Party government would be accused of ignoring the
         "approaching threat" to the country's non-Muslim population in the
         debates. Media would recall the Sept. 6-7, 1955 incidents, a
         state-sponsored campaign designed to transfer capital from minority
         businessmen to Muslim Turks and to intimidate non-Turkish
         communities into leaving their homeland to clear the way for a
         homogeneous Turkish state. Several Web sites would be established to
         disseminate propaganda against the AK Party and criticize its
         domestic policies. The Web sites would have such names as
         "www.tehditaltindayiz.com" (We are under threat) and
         "www.agosasahipcikalim.com" (Let's protect Agos).

         The most appalling phase of the plan, "Action," would include the
         assassination of prominent non-Muslim figures. As part of this
         phase, bomb attacks would be launched in Adalar; figures who defend
         the rights of non-Muslims would be assassinated; percussion bombs
         would be planted in places close to Agos; boats carrying passengers
         to the Adalar district would be bombed; prominent non-Muslim
         businessmen and artists would be kidnapped; and their homes and
         offices would be set on fire. Individuals would claim responsibility
         for the incidents on behalf of "reactionary terrorist
         organizations."

         At that point, propaganda would step in, pointing to the AK Party as
         the cause of the incidents. The party would be accused of falling
         short of ensuring the security of non-Muslims in the country. The
         action plan defined Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan as an
         "enemy."

         The action plan called the killings of Armenian-Turkish journalist
         Hrant Dink, Catholic priest Andrea Santoro and three Christians in
         Malatya an "operation." The group aimed at fomenting chaos in
         society with those killings, but complained that the plan failed
         when large groups protested the killings in mass demonstrations.
         "The operations created a large public outcry that non-Muslims in
         the country were the target of reactionary groups. But society stood
         by non-Muslims with a `We are all Armenians' campaign. Now, we will
         continue the propaganda, showing that the cause behind the killings
         was the AK Party and reactionary organizations," read the plan.

         The plan also revealed that the anti-democratic formation within the
         Naval Forces Command was being led by three admirals, identified
         with their initials F.O:., K.S. and M.F.I. Retired Maj. Levent
         Bektas, Lt. Col. Ercan Kirec,tepe, retired Col. Levent Go:ktas and
         Maj. Emre Onat also worked for the junta. All of them were arrested
         as part of the ongoing Ergenekon probe.

         Among other members of the formation were sergeant majors Halil
         Cura, Saddetin Dogan, Feridun Arslan; Maj. Emre Sezenler; and Maj.
         Emre Gu:nay. All of them were employed at the Marmara Regional
         Command. Other members at the same command were identified by their
         initials, sergeant majors D.E, T.V.A., H.D. and I.B.

         Among the members of the group at the Marmara Regional Command were
         Col. M.S., Col. Levent Gu:lmen, Maj. Erbay C,olakoglu, Maj. A.A.S.,
         Capt. B.A., Lt. Gen. B.C,., Sgt. Maj. M.A., Sgt. Maj. M.A., Maj.
         G.Y., Capt. U:.O:., Capt. B.K., Sgt. Maj. D.M., Sgt. Maj. H.E., Sgt.
         Maj. M.I. and Sgt. Maj. A.B.

         The group also had members from the Black Sea Regional Command,
         including Capt. I.Z.T., Capt. I.L.O., Maj. O:.E., Sgt. Maj. T.D.,
         Sgt. Maj. M.A. and Sgt. Maj. M.K.
         Ammunition excavated in Poyrazko:y

         Ten light anti-tank weapons, 20 percussion bombs, three other bombs,
         250 grams of C4 explosives, 19 emergency flares, 10 hand grenades,
         800 G3 bullets and a large number of cartridges for revolvers were
         found on the Istek Foundation land. The discovery followed the
         unearthing of similar underground weapons caches in January during
         digs based on maps found in the homes of two suspects -- former
         Deputy Police Chief Ibrahim Sahin and Mustafa Do:nmez, a lieutenant
         colonel who turned himself in a few days after a warrant for his
         arrest was issued.

         19 November 2009

 --
 C. Emre Dogru
 STRATFOR Intern
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 +1 512 226 3111

 --
 Michael Wilson
 STRATFOR
 Austin, Texas
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4300 ex. 4112

 --
 Michael Wilson
 STRATFOR
 Austin, Texas
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4300 ex. 4112

 --
 C. Emre Dogru
 STRATFOR Intern
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 +1 512 226 3111
</description>
    <date>2009-11-20 00:12:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-12 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1576235_re-mesa-os-turkey-naval-forces-junta-planned-to.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mesa@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1576512</id>
    <title>US/CT- Occupy Wall Street Background
</title>
    <description>   *these were sent out before, but bringing them up again
   Occupy Wall Street: FAQ
   Nathan Schneider
   September 29, 2011 
   http://www.thenation.com/article/163719/occupy-wall-street-faq

   Q: I hear that Adbusters organized Occupy Wall Street? Or Anonymous? Or US
   Day of Rage? Just who put this together anyway?

   A: All of the above, and more. Adbusters made the initial call in
   mid-July, and also produced a very sexy poster with a ballerina posed atop
   the Charging Bull statue and riot police in the background. US Day of
   Rage, the mainly internet-based creation of IT strategist Alexa O'Brien,
   got involved too and did a lot of the early legwork and tweeting.
   Anonymous-in its various and multiform visages-joined in late August. On
   the ground in New York, though, most of the planning was done by people
   involved in the NYC General Assembly, a collection of activists, artists
   and students first convened by folks who had been involved in New Yorkers
   Against Budget Cuts. That coalition of students and union workers had just
   finished a three-week occupation near City Hall called Bloombergville
   protesting the mayor's plans for budget cuts and layoffs. They had learned
   from the experience and were itching to do it again, this time with the
   hope of having a bigger impact. But no one person or group is running the
   Wall Street occupation entirely.
   Media
   [ Click for More ]

       Activist at Occupy Wall Street

   [Click to View]
   Video: Voices From Liberty Square
   We Recommend
   Watch the Livestream From Occupy Wall Street (Activism, Politics)

   Watch a live video feed from Occupy Wall Street.
   The Nation
   About the Author
   Nathan Schneider
   Nathan Schneider is an editor for the blogs Waging Nonviolence and Killing
   the Buddha, an online magazine of...
   Also by The Author
   From Occupy Wall Street to Occupy Everywhere (Activism)

   In three months, an idea and a hashtag became a worldwide movement. Here's
   how they did it.
   Nathan Schneider
   12 comments
   Occupation Nation Goes to Washington (Occupy Wall Street, Activism,
   Economy, Politics)

   The Wall Street protesters have created the template for an ambitious new
   occupation in the nation's capital.
   Nathan Schneider
   Related Topics
   Entertainment Human Interest Natural Disaster Religion Social Issues
   Technology War

   So nobody is in charge? How do decisions get made?

   The General Assembly has become the de facto decision-making body for the
   occupation at Liberty Plaza, just a few blocks north of Wall Street. (That
   was Zuccotti Park's name before 2006, when the space was rebuilt by
   Brookfield Properties and renamed after its chairman, John Zuccotti.) Get
   ready for jargon: the General Assembly is a horizontal, autonomous,
   leaderless, modified-consensus-based system with roots in anarchist
   thought, and it's akin to the assemblies that have been driving recent
   social movements around the world, in places like Argentina, Egypt's
   Tahrir Square, Madrid's Puerta del Sol and so on. Working toward consensus
   is really hard, frustrating and slow. But the occupiers are taking their
   time. When they finally get to consensus on some issue, often after days
   and days of trying, the feeling is quite incredible. A mighty cheer fills
   the plaza. It's hard to describe the experience of being among hundreds of
   passionate, rebellious, creative people who are all in agreement about
   something.

   Fortunately, though, they don't need to come to consensus about
   everything. Working alongside the General Assembly are an ever-growing
   number of committees and working groups-from Food and Media to Direct
   Action and Sanitation. Anyone is welcome to join one, and they each do
   their own thing, working in tacit coordination with the General Assembly
   as a whole. In the end, the hope is that every individual is empowered to
   make decisions and act as her or himself, for the good of the group.

   What are the demands of the protesters?

   Ugh-the zillion-dollar question. Again, the original Adbusters call asked,
   "What is our one demand?" Technically, there isn't one yet. In the weeks
   leading up to September 17, the NYC General Assembly seemed to be veering
   away from the language of "demands" in the first place, largely because
   government institutions are already so shot through with corporate money
   that making specific demands would be pointless until the movement grew
   stronger politically. Instead, to begin with, they opted to make their
   demand the occupation itself-and the direct democracy taking place
   there-which in turn may or may not come up with some specific demand. When
   you think about it, this act is actually a pretty powerful statement
   against the corruption that Wall Street has come to represent. But since
   thinking is often too much to ask of the American mass media, the question
   of demands has turned into a massive PR challenge.

   The General Assembly is currently in the midst of determining how it will
   come to consensus about unifying demands. It's a really messy and
   interesting discussion. But don't hold your breath.

   Everyone in the plaza comes with their own way of thinking about what
   they'd like to see happen, of course. Along the north end of the plaza,
   there's a collage of hundreds of cardboard signs people have made with
   slogans and demands on them. Bystanders stop and look at them, transfixed,
   all day long. The messages are all over the place, to be sure, but there's
   also a certain coherence to them. That old standby, "People Before
   Profits," seems to capture the gist fairly well. But also under discussion
   are a variety of other issues, ranging from ending the death penalty, to
   dismantling the military-industrial complex, to affordable healthcare, to
   more welcoming immigration policies. And more. It can be confusing, but
   then again these issues are all at some level interconnected.

   Some news reports have been painting the protesters as unfocused, or
   worse, as hopelessly confused and uninformed. Is there any truth to that?

   Sure. In a world as complex as ours, we're all uninformed about most
   things, even if we know about a few. I remember a police officer remarking
   of the protesters on the first or second day, "They think they know
   everything!" That's how young people generally are. But in this case,
   noticing the over-concentration of wealth around Wall Street and its
   outsized influence in politics does not require a detailed grasp of what a
   hedge fund does or the current selling price of Apple stock. One thing
   that distinguishes these protesters is precisely their hope that a better
   world is possible. I might add that, for many Americans, such nonviolent
   direct action is the only chance of having a political voice, and it
   deserves to be taken seriously by those of us in the press.

   How many people have responded to the Adbusters call? How large is the
   group? And how large has it ever been?

   The original Adbusters call envisioned 20,000 people flooding the
   Financial District on September 17. A tenth of that probably ended up
   being there that day. Despite a massive Anonymous-powered online social
   media blitz, lots of people simply didn't know about it, and traditional
   progressive organizations like labor unions and peace groups were
   uncomfortable signing on to so amorphous an action. Over the course of a
   difficult first week, with arrests happening just about every day, new
   faces kept coming, as others filtered out to take a break. The media
   coverage after last weekend's mass arrests and alleged police brutality
   has brought many more. Now, during the day and into the night, one finds
   500 or more people in the plaza, and maybe half that sleeping over. At any
   given time, several thousand people around the world are watching the
   occupation's 24/7 livestream online.

   Rather than a mass movement from the outset, this occupation has ended up
   depending on a relatively small number of highly determined, courageous
   young activists willing to sleep outside and confront police intimidation.
   But that is changing. As word spreads about it, the crowd has been getting
   older, more diverse. Already, though, this tactic of a somewhat rowdy
   occupation has garnered influence far greater than a traditional march
   would. After all, 20,000 marched on Wall Street on May 12-protesting bank
   bailouts and budget cuts for state employees-and who remembers that?

   What would a "win" look like for the occupation?

   Again, that depends on whom you ask. As September 17 approached, the NYC
   General Assembly really saw its goal, again, not so much as to pass some
   piece of legislation or start a revolution as to build a new kind of
   movement. It wanted to foment similar, like-minded assemblies around the
   city and around the world, which would be a new basis for political
   organizing in this country, against the overwhelming influence of
   corporate money. That is starting to happen, as similar occupations are
   cropping up in dozens of other cities. Another big occupation has been in
   the making for months, slated to begin on October 6 at Freedom Plaza in
   Washington, DC, and the organizers of that have been visiting Liberty
   Plaza on and off, learning all they can from its successes and mistakes.

   I've heard some people saying, when Liberty Plaza was swamped with TV news
   cameras, "We've already won!" Others think they've hardly begun. Both, in
   some sense, are true.

   Are there cops all over the square? How bad has the police brutality been?
   If I came there, what are the risks?

   The police presence is nonstop, and there have been some very scary
   encounters with them-which also gave occasion for tremendous acts of
   courage by protesters. The worst incident was last Saturday, of course,
   but there has been very little trouble since then. A large contingent of
   protesters has no intention of getting arrested, and almost nobody is
   interested in taking pointless risks or instigating violence against
   people or property. The more that ordinary people join the cause-together
   with celebrity visitors like Susan Sarandon, Cornel West and Michael
   Moore-the less likely the police will probably be to try to suppress it.
   As one sign along Broadway says, "Safety in Numbers! Join Us!"

   Nonetheless, challenging the powers that be-and doing so impolitely,
   outside the bounds of a permit-is never going to be 100 percent safe. To
   the extent that this movement is effective, it will also carry risks. If
   you take part, it's not a bad idea to keep the National Lawyers Guild's
   phone number written on your arm, just in case.

   If I can't come to Wall Street, what else can I do?

   A lot of people are already taking part in important ways from afar-this
   is the magic of decentralization. Online, you can watch the livestream,
   make donations, retweet on Twitter and encourage your friends to get
   interested. People with relevant skills have been volunteering to help
   maintain the movement's websites and edit video-coordinating through IRC
   chat rooms and other social media. Soon, the formal discussions about
   demands will be happening online as well as in the plaza. Offline, you can
   join the numerous similar occupations that are starting up around the
   country or start your own.

   Finally, you can always take the advice that has become one of the several
   mantras of the movement, expressed this way by one woman at Tuesday
   night's General Assembly meeting: "Occupy your own heart," she said, "not
   with fear but with love."
   Nathan Schneider
   September 29, 2011  

   How Occupy Wall Street has Evolved

   http://money.cnn.com/2011/10/06/technology/occupy_wall_street/index.htm?hpt=hp_t2

   NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- When Occupy Wall Street began on September 17, the
   protest consisted of a few hundred people speaking out about corporate
   greed and inequality. They practiced tai chi in a park near Wall Street,
   painted homemade signs and discussed what their demands should be.

   Now, almost three weeks later, the once-haphazard movement is growing
   larger and more coordinated. Hundreds of people have been arrested. Large
   labor unions, including the AFL-CIO and SEIU, have joined in. When new
   arrivals turn out, volunteers swiftly equip them with donated sleeping
   bags and food. Dozens of cities nationwide have launched their own
   "occupy" protests in solidarity.

   Like the "Arab Spring" uprisings that inspired its tactics, Occupy Wall
   Street is evolving.

   From the beginning, organizers -- including activist magazine Adbusters,
   which hatched the idea and put out a call for participants back in July --
   have said they hope protesters will occupy Manhattan's Financial District
   for two months. On Day 1, no one knew what that would look like. Fast
   forward to Day 19, and Zuccotti Park is loaded with makeshift camps and
   organized "stations": medical, food, legal, media, security and more.

   Food and blankets have come in from donors all over the nation, said Matt
   Ingram, who was volunteering at the "Comfort" station on Wednesday.

   "It's incredible to see the outpouring of support from people who can't be
   here," said Ingram, 28. "It reminds you that there's still humanity, and
   that people are inherently good."
   Meet the Occupy Wall Street protesters

   The support from labor unions, which began signing on in late September,
   has brought hundreds more to the scene. Representatives from the groups
   have garnered attention by sending press releases about the protest.

   "It brings us more people and more attention," said one twenty-something
   man who declined to give his name. "I don't think that their cause is the
   same as most people here. But we're all angry about something, so I guess
   it's OK."

   The crowd and atmosphere shift depending on the day of the week. It's
   tough to leave your day job for two months straight, and so the number of
   protesters dwindles on weekdays, when those present tend to be college
   students, the unemployed and retired people. Weekends ramp back up again,
   with a larger and more diverse crowd turning out.

   Day-by day highlights: Before the protest began on Saturday, Sept. 17, the
   New York Police Department closed off Wall Street and barricaded the
   iconic bull on Broadway. A few hundred protesters gathered around the bull
   and in nearby Zuccotti Park, with the crowd growing to about 500 by the
   evening.

   On Day 3, a misty Monday, the number of protesters had fallen to about 125
   people. But the following weekend brought hundreds more people -- and the
   first spate of arrests.

   The NYPD closed Broadway that Saturday -- Day 8 of the demonstration --
   and protesters marched down the avenue. Photographer Daniel Fitzsimmons
   said that day that "a protestor dropped to his knees in front of the Chase
   Bank on Wall Street, saying the bank took his parents' house. He was later
   arrested."

   Around Day 12, labor unions began signing on to show their support.

   On Day 15, this past Saturday, the tone changed sharply. The protesters
   extended the rally to Brooklyn Bridge, where hundreds were arrested and
   later released with tickets for blocking the roadway.

   "Over 700 summonses and desk appearance tickets have been issued in
   connection with the demonstration on the Brooklyn Bridge ... after
   multiple warnings by police were given to protesters to stay on the
   pedestrian walkway," said NYPD Deputy Commissioner Paul Browne.

   Browne said authorities had warned protesters they would be arrested.
   Bridge traffic heading to Brooklyn from Manhattan was shut down for
   several hours.

   A few hundred people remained at Zuccotti Park on Day 19, Oct. 5,
   preparing for a late-afternoon march from Foley Square to the Financial
   District.

   Meanwhile, an Occupy Philadelphia is slated to launch Thursday, joining
   protests in Los Angeles, Boston, San Francisco, Denver and Chicago, among
   other cities.

   The protest has drawn some criticism for its lack of concrete goals. But
   the fact that Occupy Wall Street is still going strong 19 days later means
   it's done what it set out to do: Draw focus to the concerns -- and anger
   -- many Americans have about the country's growing economic gap, plant the
   seed of an organized voice, and let the protest evolve naturally.

   "We're showing that 'we the people' really are here, present, from all
   walks of life," said Tammy Bick, 49, an unemployed former medical
   secretary. "It's a meeting of the minds and a voicing of our issues. That
   alone makes it the best single experience of my life." To top of page
   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-16 16:28:28</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1576512_us-ct-occupy-wall-street-background-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1576594</id>
    <title>US/CT- Meet the Guy Who Snitched on Occupy Wall Street to the FBI
 and NYPD
</title>
    <description>   email archive is available here:
   http://biggovernment.com/thomasryan/2011/10/14/the-email-archive-of-the-occupywallstreet-movement-anarchists-socialists-jihadists-unions-democrats/

   Meet the Guy Who Snitched on Occupy Wall Street to the FBI and NYPD
   By Adrian Chen
   Oct 15, 2011 4:47 PM
   http://gawker.com/5850054/meet-the-guy-who-snitched-on-occupy-wall-street-to-the-fbi-and-nypd

   The Occupy Wall Street protests have been going on for a month. And it
   seems the FBI and NYPD have had help tracking protesters' moves thanks to
   a conservative computer security expert who gained access to one of the
   group's internal mailing lists, and then handed over information on the
   group's plans to authorities and corporations targeted by protesters.

   Since the Occupy Wall Street protest began on September 17, New York
   security consultant Thomas Ryan has been waging a campaign to infiltrate
   and discredit the movement. Ryan says he's done contract work for the U.S.
   Army and he brags on his blog that he leads "a team called Black Cell, a
   team of the most-highly trained and capable physical, threat and cyber
   security professionals in the world." But over the past few weeks, he and
   his computer security buddies have been spending time covertly attending
   Occupy Wall Street meetings, monitoring organizers' social media accounts,
   and hanging out with protesters in Lower Manhattan.

   Full size
   As part of their intelligence-gathering operation, the group gained access
   to a listserv used by Occupy Wall Street organizers called
   September17discuss. On September17discuss, organizers hash out tactics and
   plan events, conduct post-mortems of media appearances, and trade the
   latest protest gossip. On Friday, Ryan leaked thousands of
   September17discuss emails to conservative blogger Andrew Breitbart, who is
   now using them to try to smear Occupy Wall Street as an anarchist
   conspiracy to disrupt global markets.

   What may much more alarming to Occupy Wall Street organizers is that while
   Ryan was monitoring September17discuss, he was forwarding interesting
   email threads to contacts at the NYPD and FBI, including special agent
   Jordan T. Loyd, a member of the FBI's New York-based cyber security team.

   Meet the Guy Who Snitched on Occupy Wall Street to the FBI and NYPDOn
   September 18th, the day after the protest's start, Ryan forwarded an email
   exchange between Occupy Wall Street organizers to Loyd. The email exchange
   is harmless: Organizers discuss how they need to increase union
   participation in the protest. "We need more outreach to workers. The best
   way to do that is by showing solidarity with them," writes organizer
   Jackie DiSalvo in the thread. She then lists a group of potential unions
   to work with.

   Another organizer named Conor responds: "+1,000,000 to Jackie's proposal
   on working people/union struggles outreach and solidarity. Also, why not
   invite people to protest Troy Davis's execution date at Liberty Plaza this
   Monday?"

   Five minutes after Conor sent his email, Ryan forwarded the thread-with no
   additional comment-to Loyd's FBI email address. "Thanks!" Loyd responded.
   He cc'd his colleague named Ilhwan Yum, a fellow cybersecurity expert at
   the agency, on the reply.

   Meet the Guy Who Snitched on Occupy Wall Street to the FBI and NYPDOn
   September 26th, Ryan forwarded another email thread to Agent Loyd. But
   this time he clued in the NYPD as well, sending the email to Dennis
   Dragos, a detective with the NYPD Computer Crimes Squad.

   The NYPD might have been very grateful he did so, since it involved a
   proposed demonstration outside NYPD headquarters at 1 Police Plaza. In the
   thread, organizers debated whether to crash an upcoming press conference
   planned by marijuana advocates to celebrate NYPD commissioner Ray Kelly
   ordering officers to halt arrests over possession of small amounts of
   marijuana.

   "Should we bring some folks from Liberty Plaza to chant "SHAME" for the
   NYPD's recent brutalities on Thursday night for the Troy Davis and
   Saturday for the Occupy Wall Street march?" asked one person in the email
   thread. (That past Saturday, the video of NYPD officer Anthony Bologna
   pepper-spraying a protester had gone viral.) Ryan promptly forwarded the
   email thread to Loyd at the FBI and Dragos at the NYPD.

   Interestingly, it was Ryan who revealed himself as a snitch. We learned of
   these emails from the archive Ryan leaked yesterday in the hopes of
   undermining the Occupy Wall Street movement. In assembling the archive of
   September17discuss emails, it appears he accidentally included some of his
   own forwarded emails indicating he was ratting out organizers.

   "I don't know, I just put everything I had into one big package," Ryan
   said when asked how the emails ended up in the file posted to Andrew
   Breitbart's blog. Some security expert.

   Meet the Guy Who Snitched on Occupy Wall Street to the FBI and NYPDBut
   Ryan didn't just tip off the authorities. He was also giving information
   to companies as well. When protesters discussed demonstrating in front of
   morning shows like Today and Good Morning America, Ryan quickly forwarded
   the thread to Mark Farrell, the chief security officer at Comcast, the
   parent company of NBC Universal.

   Ryan wrote:

       Since you are the CSO, I am not sure of your role in NBC since COMCAST
   owns them.
       There is a huge protest in New York call "Occupy Wall Street". Here is
   an email of stunts that they will try to pull on the TODAY show.

       We have been heavily monitoring Occupy Wall Street, and Anonymous.

   "Thanks Tom," Farrell responded. "I'll pass this to my counterpart at
   NBCU."

   Did the FBI and/or NYPD ask him to monitor Occupy Wall Street? Was he just
   forwarding the emails on out of the goodness of his heart? In a phone
   interview with us, Ryan denied being an informant. "I do not work with the
   FBI," he said.

   Ryan said he knows Loyd through their mutual involvement in the Open Web
   Application Security Project, a non-profit computer security group of
   which Ryan is a board member. Ryan said he sent the emails to Loyd
   unsolicited simply because "everyone's curious" about Occupy Wall Street,
   and he had a ground-eye view. "Jordan never asked me for anything."

   Was he sending every email he got to the authorities? Ryan said he
   couldn't remember how many he'd passed on to the FBI or NYPD, or other
   third parties. Later he said that he only forwarded the two emails we
   noticed, detailed above.

   Meet the Guy Who Snitched on Occupy Wall Street to the FBI and NYPDBut
   even if he'd been sending them on regularly, they were probably of limited
   use to the authorities. Most of the real organizing at Occupy Wall Street
   happens face-to-face, according to David Graeber, who was one of the
   earliest organizers. "We did some practical work on [the email list] at
   first-I think that's where I first proposed the "we are the 99%" motto-but
   mainly it's just an expressive forum," he wrote in an email. "No one would
   seriously discuss a plan to do something covert or dangerous on such a
   list."

   But regardless of how many emails Ryan sent-or whether Loyd ever asked
   Ryan to spy on Occupy Wall Street-Loyd was almost certainly interested in
   the emails he received. Loyd has helped hunt down members of the
   hacktivist collective Anonymous, and he and his colleagues in the FBI's
   cyber security squad have been monitoring their involvement in Occupy Wall
   Street.

   Meet the Guy Who Snitched on Occupy Wall Street to the FBI and NYPDAt a
   New York cyber security conference one day before the protest began, Loyd
   cited Occupy Wall Street as an example of a "newly emerging threat to U.S.
   information systems." (In the lead-up to Occupy Wall Street, Anonymous had
   issued threats against the New York Stock Exchange.) He told the assembled
   crowd the FBI has been "monitoring the event on cyberspace and are
   preparing to meet it with physical security," according to a New York
   Institute of Technology press release.

   We contacted Loyd to ask about his relationship with Ryan and if any of
   the information Ryan passed along was of any use to the agency. He
   declined to answer questions and referred us to the FBI's press office.
   We'll post an update if we hear back from them.

   We asked Ryan again this morning about how closely he was working with the
   authorities. Again, he claimed it was only these two emails, which is
   unlikely given he forwarded them to the FBI and NYPD without providing any
   context or explaining where he'd gotten them.

   And he detailed his rationale for assisting the NYPD:

       My respect for FDNY &amp; NYPD stems from them risking their lives to save
   mine when my house was on fire in sunset park when I was 8 yrs old. Also,
   for them risking their lives and saving many family and friends during
   9/11.

       Don't you find it Ironic that out of all the NYPD involved with the
   protest, [protesters] have only targeted the ones with Black Ribbons,
   given to them for their bravery during 9/11?

       I am sorry if we see things differently, I try to look at everything
   as a whole and in patterns. Everything we do in life and happens in life,
   there is a pattern behind it.
   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-16 15:47:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1576594_us-ct-meet-the-guy-who-snitched-on-occupy-wall-street-to-the.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>os@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1576770</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [OS] CHINA/CT/MIL - Chinese army develops drug to
 keep soldiers awake for up to 72 hours - paper
</title>
    <description>   scifi comingn true

   On 10/17/11 8:15 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

    Chinese army develops drug to keep soldiers awake for up to 72 hours -   
    paper                                                                    
                                                                             
    Text of report headlined "PLA eyes 'night eagle' to make army of night   
    owls" published by Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post website  
    on 16 October                                                            
                                                                             
    The People's Liberation Army (PLA) [Chinese army] has opened up a new    
    front in the war against sleep.                                          
                                                                             
    It has developed a drug that can keep its soldiers awake and active for  
    as long as 72 hours, state television reported yesterday. But its        
    scientists didn't disclose its ingredients.                              
                                                                             
    The anti-sleep drug - called Night Eagle - was unveiled as one of 600    
    scientific achievements in an exhibition marking the 60th anniversary of 
    the Academy of Military Medical Sciences. The China Central Television   
    report did not give further details about the new drug, such as any hint 
    of its composition, how it works or its possible side effects.           
                                                                             
    Instead, quoting academy researcher Wang Lin, it said the drug was       
    developed specifically for the military to help soldiers cope with sleep 
    deprivation during missions.                                             
                                                                             
    "Our troops will have to stay awake for a long time while being able to  
    maintain cognitive abilities when they are deployed in search and rescue 
    operations after earthquakes, floods and other disasters and some        
    special military missions," Wang said.                                   
                                                                             
    Analysts said the Night Eagle drug appeared similar to                   
    sleep-suppressants widely used by armed forces of other countries.       
                                                                             
    "Although I have no information about the newly invented drug, it is not 
    at all surprising to see efforts to control sleep and develop anti-sleep 
    technology because of their apparent practical uses in combat            
    situations," said Professor Ni Lexiong, a Shanghai-based military        
    expert.                                                                  
                                                                             
    "Whether our troops can deprive themselves of sleep hours or even days   
    longer than their opponents could make a major difference in combat," Ni 
    said.                                                                    
                                                                             
    Ni believed the PLA would not reveal the drug's composition or           
    associated experimental data, but said it probably worked the same way   
    as other stimulants developed in the West. Any possible side effects of  
    the drug were also unknown.                                              
                                                                             
    One popular military stimulant in the West is modafinil, which was       
    originally developed to treat narcolepsy but is now used by US, French,  
    British and Indian armed forces as an alternative to amphetamines, as    
    well as by students to fight fatigue.                                    
                                                                             
    Modafinil has been a popular lifestyle drug for people who want to       
    chemically turn off sleep with fewer side effects.                       
                                                                             
    Experts also said anti-sleep drugs were becoming more important hi-tech  
    aids and the US military reportedly developed a formulation that kept    
    soldiers awake for seven straight days and nights in the early 2000s.    
                                                                             
    Source: South China Morning Post website, Hong Kong, in English 16 Oct   
    11                                                                       
                                                                             
    BBC Mon AS1 ASDel ma                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4300 ex 4112

 --
 Anthony Sung
 ADP STRATFOR
</description>
    <date>2011-10-17 15:24:19</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1576770_re-eastasia-os-china-ct-mil-chinese-army-develops-drug-to.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anthony.sung@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1576797</id>
    <title>[TACTICAL] TrapWire on SARs
</title>
    <description>   Our primary work in this area has been the iWatch program. We built the
   prototype for LAPD
   (https://report.iwatchla.net/page/iwatch/iwatchlogin.aspx?site=LA ) and
   have also now built systems for DC Metro, and the Army. Many more
   cities/sites will be coming on-line shortly -- including DPS and Austin.
   iWatch pulls community member reporting into the TrapWire search engine
   and compares SARs across the country...with potential matches being fed
   back to the local LE agency. An amazing amount of good quality reporting
   is coming in from alert citizens (and police officers) in the DC area in
   particular.
</description>
    <date>2011-07-29 18:18:04</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1576797_-tactical-trapwire-on-sars-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1579528</id>
    <title>RE: DRAFT BRIEF - TURKEY: Another case against AKP?
</title>
    <description>   Thanks, Emre. I'll send this one to the list.

    

   From: Emre Dogru [mailto:emre.dogru@stratfor.com]
   Sent: February-19-10 12:02 PM
   To: Kamran Bokhari
   Cc: Reva Bhalla
   Subject: DRAFT BRIEF - TURKEY: Another case against AKP?

    

   I won't be at comp. but will check my email via iphone to see whether you
   think that this is good to go.

   The general prosecutor of Turkey, Abdurrahman Yalcinkaya, started an
   investigation against the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) over
   the allegations of AKP's interference to the judiciary, which may lead to
   another dissolution case against it. The two cases that Yalcinkaya will
   scrutinize are the allegations that AKP had arranged the judges to release
   PKK militants who surrendered (LINK:
   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20091030_turkey_bold_moves_kurdish_issue)
   in last October and the recent battle within the judiciary over the arrest
   of a prosecutor. (LINK:
   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100217_turkey_battle_over_judiciary).
   The Constitutional Court, which is dominated by secularists, nearly
   outlawed Islamist-rooted AKP in October 2008 on the charge that AKP has
   become the center of anti-secularist activities. This time, too, AKP may
   be brought to the Court, if Yalcinkaya can prove that AKP politically
   interfered to legal cases. An unnamed senior AKP official, however, told
   to Turkish daily Radikal that the government will call snap election if
   the prosecutor opens the case, even though the Turkish Prime Minister
   Tayyip Erdogan repeated several times that the general elections will be
   held in 2011 as planned.

   --

 Emre Dogru

  

 STRATFOR

 +1.512.279.9468

 emre.dogru@stratfor.com

 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-02-19 18:08:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-14 17:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1579528_re-draft-brief-turkey-another-case-against-akp-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1585896</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] HZ Model
</title>
    <description>   very interesting. 

   Fred Burton wrote:

 I don't buy the 90%.  Lean more towards 60-70%.  I've seen outstanding
 HUMINT coverages which run 180 degrees from OS, combined with SIGINT.

 The other aspect is the Dark Web data mining streams now combined
 w/surveillance logs AND technology like TrapWire.  Neither of which very
 few people see.

 The high public figures are disinformation to protect sources and
 methods (foreign liaison channels.)

 The volumnes of granular data for example on Iran or Mexico today
 out-pace the OS.


 Aaron Colvin wrote:
  

  So, since [as I understand it] upwards of 90% of all real intel comes
 from OS, isn't it safe to say these non-gov guys without the TS/SCI info
 could come somewhere close to the answers?

 On 9/22/10 9:48 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
  
    

 Agree

 Having said that, studies like this are read now inside the CIA, NCTC,
 FBI.  Back in the day, nobody read anything other than what each other
 wrote.

 The challenge has always been that educational institutions and think
 tanks lack the access to very valuable feeds of information primarily in
 the SIGINT arena, so they lack 20-25% of the granular data.

 For example, let's say the FBI is investigating HZ surveillances in
 CONUS, predicated upon an intercept that indicates the go order has been
 given.  The think tank does not have access to either reporting stream.

 Aaron Colvin wrote:
    
      

  I like studies like this, but the real problem is that the focus is on
 deterministic domains of "perfect" information. It's like game-theoretic
 models that assume rationality. These are great to understand and read,
 but, IMHO, should not be fully adhered to.

 On 9/22/10 9:29 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
  
      
        

 Well worth the read.
    
        
          

  
      
        

  
    

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-09-22 17:04:37</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1585896_re-ct-hz-model-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1586081</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire on  Kabul Hotel Attack
</title>
    <description>   This makes sense, they don't know anymore than we do on the targetting. 
   But the other thing is to compare their capabilities with available
   targets.  They may simply have not thought they could exploit a
   vulnerability at the Serena, so chose the next most high profile target. 

   Did not see this before I sent out last Insight questions, but I had seen
   this earlier insight-

   Stormed in force out of a vehicle after one perp detonated a vest at the
   gate. (That's preliminary -- not confirmed yet).

   Can we confirm that?  Once they got to the gate, which I assume is farther
   away from the hotel at the bottom of a hill, how did they get through the
   next checkpoints?

   On 6/29/11 8:22 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

     Two schools of thought on this at the moment:

      

     1. Taliban expected the hotel to be full of westerners attending the
     transition talks. The hotel is used by westerners, but not nearly as
     much as the Serena Hotel downtown. The attackers allegedly communicated
     to their Taliban planners during the operation that they were going
     door-to-door and rounding up "many westerners." Whether or not this was
     Taliban hype, they clearly wanted to give the impression they were
     head-hunting foreigners.

      

     2. The Taliban targeted the hotel due to fact that clan/tribal chiefs
     were staying there ahead of the transition talks. (Which is true, there
     were some in the hotel at the time of the attack). This could have been
     the Taliban's attempt to send a mssg that they were still strong, and
     that no decisions on the future of Afghanistan can occur without them.
     In other words, a pure intimidation op.

      

      

     Mike, Who do you think the target was?  Thanks

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-06-29 16:14:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1586081_re-alpha-trapwire-on-kabul-hotel-attack-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1586970</id>
    <title>Re: Anonymous and Occupy divergence...in the Iowa caucuses
</title>
    <description>   occupying the caucasus themselves would be impossible -- as Sean noted its
   direct participatory democracy...each congressional district is split into
   not-so-small number of precincts, withe separate meeting places for
   democrats and republicans

   so my home town -- population 26k -- had 12 caucasus locations

   the greater des moines are (cue the laughter) would have something like 25
   times that

   and there is one other nice thing about Iowa -- the roads leading out are
   in immaculate condition

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "CT AOR" &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "Peter Zeihan" &lt;peter.zeihan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, November 9, 2011 9:30:51 PM
   Subject: Anonymous and Occupy divergence...in the Iowa caucuses

   Ironically after all my Anonymous bashing, i want to point out a very
   minor development. Mainly because it's funny to me. 

   I mentioned the Occupy Des Moines protest last week sometime.  It is very
   small, and a lot like Austin's.  They have been planning for a few weeks
   to Occupy the Iowa caucuses.  For those of you that don't know about the
   practice of the most important local democratic process in the world, the
   Iowa Caucuses are the first round of true competition between presidential
   candidates.  Unlike voting in a primary, it's more like a town hall
   meeting with much debate and discussion--a very open democratic form.  A
   candidate doesn't have to win Iowa necessarily to get the presidential
   nomination, but it serves to weed most of the bad ones early on in the
   race  (Iowans are fallible, they have made mistakes too). It's the one
   time that Iowa has an influence on politics, and I often say it is Iowa's
   one good thing.  I think it's January 3. 

   Back to the protestors.  Their plan has been developing to "occupy"
   candidate's offices.  That really means protest in front of the offices,
   which if you think of all the little shitty strip malls you see around,
   one small section would be a campaign office.  They have no security, and
   allow a lot of access to candidates if they choose to campaign in Iowa.
   The Occupy Des Moines group are not at all planning to disrupt the
   Caucuses functioning.  Though I wouldn't be surprised if they protested
   outside caucus meeting places, or more likely, brought their signs and
   slogans in with them.  These people are experienced organizers (as it
   comes to des moines), and know that if they have a political impact, one
   of the best places to aim it is the Caucuses. 

   Now here comes "Anonymous."  Those of you that read the Wired background
   know that their real effect has been in popularizing "memes."  One of
   these was actually Occupy Wall Street- 
   http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/20/occupy-wall-street-anonymous-connection_n_1021665.html 
   The mob of computer users and protest movement have been running on
   parallel tracks for awhile, and have served to mutually reinforce each
   other.

   Whoever from Anonymous made this new video about the Caucuses has made an
   ass out of themselves.  The video recommends actually shutting down the
   Caucuses.  That is both tactically dumb for the Occupy movement, but also
   totally antithetical to its general ideology.  For example, a Caucus
   functions very similarly to the Occupy General Assembly meetings--direct
   participatory democracy. 

   The Des Moines organizers have already spoken up- saying they have nothing
   to do with this "Anonymous" bullshit.  I'm happy to see I left them with
   some sense of realism.  This little event is not going to matter very
   much, but it shows how uncoordinated Anonymous is. 

   See the article below, the video is at the link. 

   Video calls for shutting down Iowa caucuses; the group Anonymous claims
   responsibility
   Jason Clayworth
   4:55 PM, Nov 6, 2011
   http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/11/06/video-calls-for-shutting-down-iowa-caucuses-the-group-anonymous-claims-responsibility/

   An anarchist-style movement that has caught the attention of the FBI and
   taken credit for hacking into military and corporate websites has now
   claimed responsibility for creating a video that urges its supporters to
   shut down the Iowa caucuses.

   Local authorities say they are aware of the video, are preparing for
   possible action by the group and are in contact with the presidential
   campaigns about the issue.

   A computer-generated voice in the online video, which had received more
   than 1,600 views by Sunday evening, says, a**Both parties are desecrating
   the American democracy and committing crimes against humanity on behalf of
   the American people.a**

   It continues: a**The primaries and caucuses put on by these parties are
   part of an elaborate scam that deceives the public into voting for
   candidates that serve the private interests of the mega corporations.
   These parties have deliberately driven tens of millions of people into
   poverty.a**

   It later says: a**We are calling upon you to occupy the campaign offices
   of presidential headquarters in Des Moines, Iowa, on Dec. 27, and
   peacefully shut down the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3.a**

   The group is believed to have no centralized operational leadership and
   appears to be piggybacking on the Occupy Des Moines movement.

   But Occupy Des Moines leaders say therea**s a difference: The Iowa
   groupa**s planned sit-ins at presidential campaign headquarters are not
   intended to shut down the Iowa caucuses, they say. Rather, they want to
   target presidential candidates and big-moneyed corporations that activists
   say are pulling the strings behind the scenes.

   While there are similarities between the groupsa** beliefs, they are
   separate, Occupy Des Moines participants emphasized Sunday.

   a**I dona**t like it one bit,a** former Rep. Ed Fallon, a Des Moines
   Democrat and participant in Occupy Des Moines, said of the video on
   Sunday. a**It doesna**t fit with my definition of Gandhi- and Martin
   Luther King Jr.-style nonviolence. The core of nonviolent action is truth.
   And if you are doing everything you can to be truthful, then you should be
   up front and transparent. No distorting of your voice or hiding.a**

   FBI sees Anonymous as security threat

   The Anonymous movement has become a potential national security threat,
   according to an article published in September by the Associated Press.

   The FBI has carried out more than 75 raids and arrested at least 16 people
   this year in connection with illegal Internet hacking jobs for which the
   group has claimed responsibility, according to the AP. One demonstration
   disrupted traffic in San Francisco as a protest after the Bay Area Rapid
   Transit system shut off cell service to deter a planned protest of a
   police shooting on a subway platform.

   The group also claimed responsibility for hacking the online payment
   processing center PayPal after it had suspended WikiLeaksa** account after
   WikiLeaks published sensitive U.S. government intelligence documents, the
   AP reported.

   Three of the Iowa campaign headquarters of presidential candidates are in
   Urbandale a** those of Michele Bachmann, a U.S. representative from
   Minnesota; former Godfathera**s Pizza CEO Herman Cain; and former
   Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.

   Urbandale police are aware of the video, and while they arena**t releasing
   details of their security plans, authorities will be prepared should the
   demonstrations take an illegal turn, Urbandale officer Randy Peterson said
   Sunday.

   a**Wea**ll just try to address any issue as they arise,a** Peterson said.

   Occupy movement: We dona**t plan to interfere with voting

   Occupy Des Moines, an offshoot of an anti-Wall Street protest group, last
   week announced plans to launch nonviolent sit-ins inside campaign offices
   in the final week before the Iowa caucuses. Some of the groupa**s members
   have said they expect large-scale arrests, but they have emphasized they
   do not plan to commit violence or interfere with voting.

   a**There might be some overlapa** in what the groups believe, a**but
   Anonymous speaks for themselves and the Occupy Movement speaks for
   itself,a** said David Goodner, a demonstrator who often speaks on behalf
   of Occupy Des Moines. a**Whether the public can understand that or not,
   Ia**m not sure, but for me therea**s a clear difference.a**

   State officials were preparing for a variety of public safety scenarios
   associated with the Iowa caucuses before the video was released, said John
   Benson, a public information officer for Iowaa**s Homeland Security and
   Emergency Management Division

   a**Obviously with the video that theya**ve put out and some of the other
   work theya**re doing, that certainly increases your overall awareness,a**
   Benson said. a**But to say wea**re going to do something specific in our
   planning process, we cana**t say that right now, but it certainly has our
   attention.a**

   Party leaders: Let caucuses proceed

   Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Matt Strawn said the partya**s state
   central committee will discuss the situation at its next meeting.

   a**Successive generations of Iowans of both political parties have worked
   awfully hard to make sure Iowans have this opportunity to participate in
   this first-in-the-nation caucus,a** Strawn said. a**I certainly will do
   anything in my power to keep outside agitators from ruining something that
   a lot of people have worked very hard for over a long period of time.a**

   The integrity of the Iowa caucuses would be eroded should attempts to shut
   them down be successful, said Iowa Democratic Party Chairwoman Sue
   Dvorsky.

   a**If anyone is coming and planning to make it so the participants of the
   caucus cannot have a civil and civic conversation, then of course that
   would erode the integrity of the caucuses, and it flies in the face of
   what the caucuses are,a** Dvorsky said. a**Theya**re the most basic
   long-standing tradition in this country of neighbors coming together to
   talk about political issues.a**

   She continued: a**Ia**m hoping Iowans can protect their ability to speak
   freely and respectfully with their neighbors.a**

   About Anonymous

   Anonymous emerged in 2003 from an Internet chat channel where members
   organized web incidents for their own amusement.

   By 2008, the prankster nature of Anonymous morphed into a**hacktivism,a**
   where members sabotaged websites and leaked confidential information for
   political purposes, according to law enforcement authorities.

   The group has no formal leadership and is generally considered to be more
   of a movement than an organization. As the name implies, its members
   generally dona**t identify themselves.

   The group has generally concentrated on Internet hacking. This summer, it
   claimed credit for hacking into a Booz Allen Hamilton website and leaking
   email addresses of 90,000 U.S. military personnel and hacking a Monsanto
   Co. website and releasing personal data on 2,500 employees.

   Sources: USA Today and the Associated Press

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967
   www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-10 14:15:47</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1586970_re-anonymous-and-occupy-divergence-in-the-iowa-caucuses-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>peter.zeihan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1587026</id>
    <title>[alpha] Occupy Wall Street (DHS analysis)
</title>
    <description>3</description>
    <date>2011-10-25 18:04:51</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1587026_-alpha-occupy-wall-street-dhs-analysis-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/13/13637_DHS IP Special.pdf</path><size>797704</size><md5></md5><sha1>cbe7c9e671329c00f0091f1c9e330de5ed455db9</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1587164</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged "Anonymous" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise "anonymous"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-10 19:47:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1587164_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1587317</id>
    <title>RE: LA Terror Plot (not for pub - pls do not forward)  
</title>
    <description>   The surveillance detection was identified by the TrapWire surveillance
   system.    I'm getting the details on the recons and m.o.   The matter is
   very dicey.  Pls don't pass this around.  Thanks  

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, September 22, 2010 8:33 PM
   To: secure@stratfor.com
   Subject: LA Terror Plot (not for pub - pls do not forward)
   According to a very good source responsible for domestic surveillance
   operations, an extremely serious al Qaeda terror plot has been uncovered
   targeting a financial institution, an entertainment center and a
   government office bldg in Los Angeles.  The same terrorist surveillance
   team conducted pre-operational surveillance of all three sites.   The
   group is currently under watch....
    
   Note -- The NSC has refused disclosure due to the election.  Gotta love
   it.  I'll know more tomorrow. 

   No virus found in this incoming message.
   Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
   Version: 9.0.851 / Virus Database: 271.1.1/3152 - Release Date: 09/22/10
   01:34:00
</description>
    <date>2010-09-23 23:54:36</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1587317_re-la-terror-plot-not-for-pub-pls-do-not-forward-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1587333</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] [OS] CHINA/CSM - Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in
 fraud probe
</title>
    <description>   This is also a pretty good CSM topic.  some college kids running a scam
   through Alibaba (chinese ebay), took in a good amount of money. 

   If we had some good 'redism' related incidents, maybe I could write on
   that, but we'd need some very concise points to make. 

   Let me know what you guys think of this and the surveillance camera topic.

   Jen, I assume that Trapwire is a competitor to Cisco, but I'm not sure.  I
   don't know if trapwire makes the actual cameras or just does the
   analysis.   I won't have real questions till morning. 

   On 7/2/11 11:00 AM, Kevin Stech wrote:

     Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in fraud probe

     02 July 2011 - 08H10 

     http://www.france24.com/en/20110702-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-fraud-probe

      

     AFP - Police have arrested 36 people in southeast China following an
     investigation into fraud on e-commerce site Alibaba.com and other
     websites that duped buyers out of more than $6 million.

      

     Alizila.com, Alibaba's corporate news website, reported earlier this
     week the suspects were detained in Fujian province's Putian city in
     April. John Spelich, the firm's spokesman, confirmed the report to AFP
     on Saturday.

      

     The people arrested allegedly operated a criminal gang that used fake
     IDs to open more than 100 "Gold Supplier" accounts on Alibaba.com. This
     designation is given to those certified as highly trusted suppliers by
     the firm.

      

     This allowed the suspects to pose as legitimate companies selling to
     overseas businesses that source goods through Alibaba.com. Police said
     the alleged scammers also used other international trading websites.

      

     Alibaba.com, based in the eastern city of Hangzhou, has grown into one
     of China's largest Internet companies by matching mainland manufacturers
     and wholesalers with buyers around the world.

      

     But its reputation took a hit in February when the firm announced the
     resignation of chief executive David Wei and head of operations Elvis
     Lee after fraud was uncovered on the site.

      

     Wei and Lee were not involved in the scams but resigned because they
     took responsibility for "systemic breakdowns" that allowed the fraud to
     happen, Alibaba said at the time.

      

     But according to the Alizila report, the fraud was "sometimes abetted by
     Alibaba.com employees." But Spelich said Saturday none of the 36
     arrested worked at the company.

      

     He added the number of fraud complaints received by the website in June
     was down 70 percent from February after Alibaba toughened procedures and
     other security measures.

      

     The report said Alibaba had refunded $1.9 million to those who lost
     their money to the alleged scammers.

     Click here to find out more!

      

     Kevin Stech

     Director of Research | STRATFOR

     kevin.stech@stratfor.com

     +1 (512) 744-4086

      

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 06:18:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1587333_re-ct-os-china-csm-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-in.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1588898</id>
    <title>Fw: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in Iran
</title>
    <description>   I captured Ramzi Yousef on a single piece of intel and you will never see
   the killer that I had killed in Shadows show up in the OS. Relying on the
   OS as corroboration makes us no better then CNN. Also, Comrade J told me
   that the KGB takes great pride in killing Zia...
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Kamran Bokhari &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 08:22:18 -0600 (CST)
   To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in
   Iran
   As an intelligence entity we can't simply accept a single piece of insight
   as truth.

   On 11/14/11 9:10 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

     Guerrilla actions behind enemy lines.  

     If we think the Izzies have set back waiting on Iran to create a bomb we
     are like the CIA with their inability to predict just about anything. 

     Check INSIGHT I posted last week that everyone discounted.  How come if
     its not in OS we nash our teeth?  Intelligence agencies exist to have
     sources.  That is what we are.  

     On 11/14/2011 8:06 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

       Penetrating a major military installation and causing a blast is a
       totally different ballgame. Not saying it can't happen. But we can't
       assume that because they did stuxnet that they are capable of doing
       this blast as well. It is a huge leap in capabilities.

       Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
       Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
       Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 08:03:34 -0600 (CST)
       To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
       ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
       Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast
       in Iran
       It clearly does not. Look at the thousand centrifuges. Please reread
       the 2 stuxnet analyses.

       There are enough iranians who have aliyah'd to israel that they could
       easily train a persian looking, farsi speaking jew to go into Iran for
       sabotage and not get caught. I don't know that this is happening nor
       do I assume that there would not be mistakes, but its very possible to
       do this undetected. The key is recruiting human agents on the bases.
       This was clearly done with stuxnet, though it may have been
       unknowingly

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: "Kamran Bokhari" &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
       Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
       Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 07:59:47 -0600 (CST)
       To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
       ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
       Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast
       in Iran
       Yeah this seems really unlikely. '79 was a whole different reality.
       The security establishment has the placed locked down.
       Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Abe Selig &lt;abe.selig@stratfor.com&gt;
       Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
       Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 07:45:14 -0600 (CST)
       To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
       ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
       Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast
       in Iran
       There are still about 20,000 Jews in Iran (Tehran and Esfahan mostly),
       but IMO, they are far too scared of being accused as Israeli spies too
       actually help Israel out.

       On 11/14/11 7:32 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         Ah.  As stick said, they would more likely use proxies.  But if
         not,  special operations forces do often move undetected.  Don't
         think of them as going in on a helicopter, think of them as going in
         with a group of migrant workers crossing the border.  There used to
         be a lot of jews in Iran, not so much anymore, that's who I would
         recruit form. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: "Kamran Bokhari" &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
         To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
         Sent: Monday, November 14, 2011 7:11:15 AM
         Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
         blast in Iran

         See insight below.
         Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
         Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
         Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 07:10:06 -0600 (CST)
         To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
         ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
         Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
         blast in Iran
         what commandos?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: "Kamran Bokhari" &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
         To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
         Sent: Monday, November 14, 2011 6:39:07 AM
         Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
         blast in Iran

         How did Israeli commandos get to operate deep inside Iran without
         being detected?
         Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
         Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
         Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 05:54:41 -0600 (CST)
         To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
         ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
         Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
         blast in Iran
         I agree.  The argument here is that the proponents of conventional
         war are ones that want the oil prices--but is it really that
         simple?  What about other economic effects?  For Israel, by this
         argument, it doesn't matter what method as long as it sets Iran
         back----I agree with this.  However, the confidence that this guy
         has does not show publicly.  By that, I mean look at what Dagan was
         saying a year ago, and how quiet Israeli leaders have been. 
         Suddenly they are really pushing the issue, and while Dagan isn't
         it, his line is that conventional war would be a mistake, not that
         Iran doesn't need to be dealt with.  I don't really like trying to
         interpret public statements, but I think there is something here,
         and that's why I keep pushing this. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: "Chris Farnham" &lt;chris.farnham@stratfor.com&gt;
         To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
         Sent: Sunday, November 13, 2011 7:22:52 PM
         Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
         blast in Iran

         I think the info that Fred sent in previously needs to be looked
         quite seriously here.

         The insight seems like quite a stretch however it has been put out
         there for some reason or another and is now playing in to what we
         are seeing.

         Insight below:

         Source below was asked to clarify his remarks that the nuclear
         infrastructure had been destroyed.  Source response:

         Israeli commandos in collaboration with Kurd forces destroyed few
         underground facilities mainly used for the Iranian defense and
         nuclear research projects.

         Despite the reports in the media and against any public knowledge,
         the promoter of a massive Israeli attack on Syria is the axis
         India-Russia-Turkey-Saudi Arabia. The axis US-Germany-France-China
         is against such an attack from obvious reasons. Not many people know
         that Russia is one of Israel's largest military partners and India
         is Israel's largest client.

         If a direct conflict between Iran and Israel erupts, Russia and
         Saudi Arabia will gain the advantages on oil increasing prices. On
         the other hand, China and Europe are expected to loose from an oil
         crisis as a result of a conflict. Based on Israeli plans, the attack
         on Iran will last only 48 hours but will be so destructive that Iran
         will be unable to retaliate or recover and the government will fall.
         It is hard to believe that Hamas or Hezbollah will try to get
         involved in this conflict.

         In the open media many are pushing and expecting Israel to launch a
         massive attack on Iran. Even if the Israelis have the capabilities
         and are ready to attack by air, sea and land, there is no need to
         attack the nuclear program at this point after the commandos
         destroyed a significant part of it.

         If a massive attack on Iran happens soon, then the attack will have
         political and oil reasons and not nuclear. It is also very hard to
         believe that the Israelis will initiate an attack unless they act as
         a contractor for other nations or if Iran or its proxies attack
         first. With the revealed of the new UN report the Israelis have
         green light to take care of the Iranian proxies in Gaza and Lebanon
         now with the entire world watching Iran. I think that we should
         expect escalations on these fronts rather than an Israeli attack on
         Iran.

         On 11/7/11 8:09 AM, Chris Farnham wrote: Ah, what? Israel has
         already destroyed the Iranian prog/infra and this is all being
         engineered by Europeans so people forget about the economy crisis?!

         How and when did the Israelis destroy the infra on the ground?

         Why is that we see the vast majority of the increase in pressure
         coming from Israel (I mean straight from people's mouths) and from
         the US (Such as Albright in the WaPo)?

         Would anyone actually accept that this could let the Europeans
         forget about the Euro crisis, something they have been experiencing
         every day for over a year?!

         Do we attribute any credibility to this item at all? I don't even
         see what possible disinfo purposes this could serve.

         On 11/7/11 7:54 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

           Code: IL701
           Publication: for background
           Attribution: none
           Source Description - Confirmed Israeli Intelligence Agent
           Source reliability: Still testing
           Item credibility: untested
           Source handler: Fred

           Source was asked what he thought of reports that the Israelis were
           preparing a military offensive against Iran.  Response:

           I think this is a diversion. The Israelis already destroyed all
           the Iranian nuclear infrastructure on the ground weeks ago. The
           current "let's bomb Iran" campaign was ordered by the EU leaders
           to divert the public attention from their at home financial
           problems. It plays also well for the US  since Pakistan, Russia
           and N. Korea are mentioned in the report. 

           The result of this campaign will be massive attacks on Gaza and
           strikes on Hezbollah in both Lebanon and Syria.

           --

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
         To: analysts@stratfor.com
         Sent: Monday, 14 November, 2011 11:52:04 AM
         Subject: Re: S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in
         Iran

         wow, that's an extremely revealing statement.  The Israelis (i
         believe it was even Barak then too) made very similar comments
         following the Stuxnet news as well.  THe whole 'I'm not going to
         admit publicly that we did it, but boy that was nice.' 

         i think we need a piece laying out the details as far as we know of
         what happened and where and point out the holes in the accident
         theory. i think our assessment on the constraints of an Israeli
         attack on Iranian sites holds. It's the sabotage efforts where the
         most resources are being concentrated, which makes a lot of
         strategic and tactical sense for Israel and US in dealing with Iran
         at this stage

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: "Ben West" &lt;ben.west@stratfor.com&gt;
         To: "alerts" &lt;alerts@stratfor.com&gt;
         Sent: Sunday, November 13, 2011 2:40:06 PM
         Subject: S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in Iran

         Interesting comments by the defense minister.

         http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i28MvYyqR9sGxc2cZ4U1QlPPQFLA?docId=CNG.93c1b5af9b6cb71a17bf389563809eb2.a1
         Israel hails deadly blast in Iran

         (AFP) - 1 hour ago 

         JERUSALEM - Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak on Sunday hailed the
         deadly munitions blast at a base of Iran's elite Revolutionary
         Guards and hoped for more such incidents.

         "I don't know the extent of the explosion," he told military radio,
         asked about the incident. "But it would be desirable if they
         multiply."

         Iran said earlier that a senior general who pioneered an artillery
         and missile unit was among the 17 Guards reported killed in
         Saturday's blast at Bid Ganeh, near the town of Malard on the
         western outskirts of Tehran.

         Guards spokesman commander Ramezan Sharif said the blast, which Iran
         said was an accident, occurred as "ammunition was taken out of the
         depot and was being moved outside toward the appropriate site."

         Set up after the 1979 Islamic revolution to defend Iran, the Guards
         are in charge of the Islamic republic's missile programme, including
         Shahab-3 missiles with a range of 2,000 kilometres (1,200 miles)
         capable of hitting Israel.

         Saturday's blast came amid international condemnation of Iran since
         the release of a new UN nuclear watchdog report accusing Tehran of
         working towards the development of nuclear warheads to fit inside
         its medium-range missiles.

         Israeli officials have in past weeks warned Iran of the possibility
         of military strikes against its nuclear sites.

         Ben West
         Tactical Analyst
         STRATFOR
         512-744-4300
         ext. 4340

         --

         Chris Farnham
         Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
         Australia Mobile: 0423372241
         Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
         www.stratfor.com

         --
         Sean Noonan
         Tactical Analyst
         STRATFOR
         T: +1 512-279-9479 | M: +1 512-758-5967
         www.STRATFOR.com

         --
         Sean Noonan
         Tactical Analyst
         STRATFOR
         T: +1 512-279-9479 | M: +1 512-758-5967
         www.STRATFOR.com

         --
         Sean Noonan
         Tactical Analyst
         STRATFOR
         T: +1 512-279-9479 | M: +1 512-758-5967
         www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 -
 Abe Selig
 Officer, Operations Center
 STRATFOR
 T: 512.279.9489 | M: 512.574.3846
 www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-14 16:00:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1588898_fw-alpha-s3-g3-israel-iran-barak-hails-munitions-blast-in.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1589228</id>
    <title>[CT] India - Train Derailments?
</title>
    <description>   This might be a good trigger for reassessing Indian militancy -- would be
   especially interesting to see who did this one since it's much larger than
   we've seen recently.  No one has claimed responsibility yet and several
   groups have condemned the blasts.  Any other thoughts we have on who did
   it would be much appreciated.

   -------- Original Message --------

    Subject: S3 - INDIA/CT/GV- Death toll from derailed train in India now at 
             60                                                               
       Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2011 23:52:43 -0500 (CDT)                            
       From: Chris Farnham &lt;chris.farnham@stratfor.com&gt;                       
   Reply-To: analysts@stratfor.com                                            
         To: alerts@stratfor.com                                              

   The red please [chris]

   [this news also has the Assam blast story that caused train derailment the
   end. Bad sunday for Indian railways AR)

   Death toll from derailed train in India now at 60
   AP
   http://news.yahoo.com/death-toll-derailed-train-india-now-60-034936343.html

   LUCKNOW, India (AP) - Officials say the death toll from a train derailment
   in northern India has risen to 60 as more bodies are being pulled out of
   the mangled coaches.

   The senior army official in charge of rescue operations at the accident
   site says volunteers and soldiers have pulled out 60 bodies from 12
   coaches of the Kalka Mail, which went off the tracks Sunday afternoon.

   Col. Amarjit Dhillon told the Associated Press on Monday that many more
   bodies were trapped under the twisted coaches and soldiers were using gas
   cutters to slice through the metal.

   Rescue workers working through the night rescued many of the more than 100
   injured in the accident near the town of Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh state.

   THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information.
   AP's earlier story is below.

   FATEHPUR, India (AP) - Rescuers searched for survivors in the wreckage of
   a packed express train that derailed in northern India on Sunday
   afternoon, killing at least 31 people, while officials said a second train
   derailment hundreds of miles (kilometers) to the northeast appeared to
   have been caused by a remote-controlled bomb.

   Rescuers were working to reach the second derailment, which occurred late
   Sunday night in a rural area of Assam state, injuring at least 100. The
   two railway incidents did not appear to be related.

   In the first crash, the Kalka Mail train was on its way to Kalka, in the
   foothills of the Himalayas, from Howrah, a station near Kolkata in eastern
   India, when 12 coaches and the engine jumped the tracks at Malwan station,
   near the town of Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh state, senior railway official
   A.K. Jain said.

   The cause of the derailment was not immediately clear but it appeared that
   the driver applied the emergency brakes, Jain said.

   At least 31 people were killed and rescue workers pulled at least 100
   injured passengers out of the wreckage, said Brij Lal, a state police
   official.

   Hours later, the second train derailed in the northeastern state of Assam,
   injuring at least 100 people, said S.K. Roy, a local magistrate.

   Local police suspect that a remote control-triggered bomb caused four
   coaches of the Gauhati-Puri Express to be thrown off the tracks in the
   town of Rangiya, about 30 miles (50 kilometers) west of the state's
   capital, Gauhati, Roy said.

   S. Hajong, a local railways spokesman, said two of the four coaches
   plunged into a pond and casualties are feared.

   Roy did not blame any rebel group and no one has taken responsibility for
   the attack so far. More than 30 groups in northeastern India have been
   fighting for decades for independence or wide autonomy in the region,
   about 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) east of New Delhi.

   It was the third train accident in India in the last four days. A train
   hit a bus at an unmanned railway crossing last Thursday, killing 35
   people.

   In Fatehpur, the accident site was a pile of twisted metal. At least one
   coach flew above the roof of another ahead of it and was dangling
   precariously, television footage showed. Another coach was thrown away
   from the rest of the train.

   The toll was likely to rise as rescuers made their way through the coaches
   and used gas cutters to cut through the mangled metal, Lal said. Rescue
   efforts continued late into the night.

   "We're trying to cut into the coaches and rescue those still trapped
   inside," Lal said.

   A senior railway official, H.C. Joshi, told CNN-IBN news channel that
   rescuers were struggling to free at least five people pinned under the
   wreckage of one of the worst-damaged coaches.

   Medical personnel rushed to the area, about 75 miles (120 kilometers)
   southeast of Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh state.

   Army helicopters were ferrying the most seriously injured victims to
   hospitals and 30 army engineers had joined the rescue efforts, Lal said.

   TV stations showed local residents helping injured passengers away from
   the train, several in makeshift stretchers, and breaking the windows of
   coaches to help those trapped inside.

   Prime Minister Manmohan Singh expressed "deep sorrow and shock" at the
   loss of lives. The Railways Ministry announced compensation of 500,000
   rupees ($11,000) for the families of those killed in the accident.

   The number of passengers on board the Kalka Mail - named for its past use
   in the postal service - was not known. Express trains normally carry about
   1,000 people and travel at speeds of 60-80 miles (100-130 kilometers) per
   hour.

   India's railroad network is one of the largest in the world and carries
   about 14 million passengers a day. Accidents are common, with most blamed
   on poor maintenance and human error.

   --
   Animesh

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   Australia Mobile: 0423372241
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-11 14:29:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-17 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1589228_-ct-india-train-derailments-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mesa@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1591934</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] [OS] RUSSIA/SYRIA/CT-8/28- GRU officer dies	while	swimming.
 ??????
</title>
    <description>   This was reportedly the deputy head though, not just a regular
   intelligence officer.=C2=A0 I imagine he would usually travel with at
   least a small crew.

   Fred Burton wrote:

 Cable notifications; I'm sure his out of country travel ha=
 d to be
 cleared, authorized.  Only the CIA/DCI is protected.



 Fred Burton wrote:
  

 Probably not

 Ryan Abbey wrote:
    

 Would this guy not have had a security detail with him=
  ... especially
 since he was vacationing out of country???

 ------------------------------------------------------------------------
 *From: *"Ben West" &lt;ben.west@stratfor.com&gt;
 *To: *ct@stratfor.com
 *Sent: *Monday, August 30, 2010 9:47:48 AM
 *Subject: *Re: [CT] [OS] RUSSIA/SYRIA/CT-8/28- GRU officer dies
 while        swimming. ??????

   Russian intelligence official dies in Syria during "swimming tragedy"
 and there are no details on it?! It's like they're admitting that he was
 murdered...

 On 8/30/2010 8:37 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
      

 Relationship to Comrade J?


 Sean Noonan wrote:
        

 Lauren, when you have a second, what's with this? =
  3 articles below.
 Dude died a couple weeks ago.

 Sean Noonan wrote:
          

 *Russian Intelligence Chief Dies While Swimming*

 Updated: Saturday, 28 Aug 2010, 4:00 PM EDT
 Published : Saturday, 28 Aug 2010, 4:00 PM EDT

            

 http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/dpps/news/russian-in=
 telligence-chief-dies-while-swimming-dpgonc-km-20100828_9383926
      

 (NewsCore) - The deputy head of Russia's powerfu=
 l military
 intelligence agency died mysteriously in a swimming accident, Russian
 media reported Saturday.

 "Several days ago, General Yuri Ivanov died while swimming," official
 news agency RIA Novosti quoted a military source as saying.

 The report did not give any further details on the circumstances of
 the death, or the location.

 Ivanov was deputy head of the GRU, the overseas intelligence gathering
 arm of the Russian military.

 Daily Kommersant reported that the 52-year-old had died "tragically,"
 wording that was repeated in an obituary in defense ministry newspaper
 Red Star, which also failed to provide any details.

 During the Soviet era the GRU was considered a rival to the KGB, the
 secret service, now known as the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR).

 Copyright 2010 AFP. All rights reserved.

 *Russian diplomat's body found on Hatay shore*
 Font Size: Larger|Smaller
 Friday, August 13, 2010
 Hatay - Anatolia News Agency

            

 http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=3Drussian-diplomats-=
 body-found-in-hatay-shores-2010-08-13
      

 A body found by fishermen on the coast of =C3=87=
 evlik in the border
 province of Hatay five days ago has been identified as Russian
 diplomat Yuri Ivanov, Anatolia News Agency reported Friday.

 The diplomat drowned while on vacation in Latakia in Syria, but his
 body could not be found despite widespread search operations.
 Authorities said the wind and waves must have dragged the body toward
 the Samanda=C4=9F district=E2=80=99s coast.

 Officials said they had been able to identify the body by
 corresponding with both domestic and international authorities and
 were helped by Ivanov=E2=80=99s cross necklace.

 The body was sent for an autopsy to the Forensic Medicine Institute in
 the neighboring province of Adana before being released to the
 diplomat=E2=80=99s relatives in Samanda=C4=9F.
 *
 Body of Russian diplomat found on Turkish coast*
 August 17, 2010 | 15:25
 http://news.am/eng/news/28007.html

 Fishermen found the body of the Russian diplomat on the Mediterranean
 coast of Turkey. Most likely the Russian diplomat drowned while on
 vacation in Syria.

 He arrived in Syria as a tourist and entered the country with
 diplomatic passport. He is not the officer of Russian Embassy in
 Syria, spokesman for the Embassy Andrey Zaytsev told RIA Novosti.

 Earlier media spread information on death of Russian diplomat Yuri
 Ivanov whose body was found by fishermen on the coast of Cevlik in the
 border province of Hatay five days ago.

 Officials said they managed to identify the body with the assistance
 of both domestic and international authorities, Hurriyet Daily News
 reported.

 --

 Sean Noonan

 Tactical Analyst

 Office: +1 512-279-9479

 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

 www.=
 stratfor.com

            

 --

 Sean Noonan

 Tactical Analyst

 Office: +1 512-279-9479

 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

 www.=
 stratfor.com

          

 --=20
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX



 --=20
 Ryan Abbey
 Tactical Intern
 Stratfor
 ryan.abbey@stratfor.com

      

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-08-30 16:07:57</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1591934_re-ct-os-russia-syria-ct-8-28-gru-officer-dies-while.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1592836</id>
    <title>Re: G3* - IRAN/UN/MIL - Iran IAEA report leaked
</title>
    <description>   i only just now read the Barak interview.  blows my mind this dickhead was
   asking about Munich the movie.  But this was a great answer-

   JEREMY VINE:

   You have an amazing military record, and for those who don't know it,
   19... - correct me if I'm wrong here - 1972 led the mission to free
   hostages on a Sabena flight; 1973, I read somewhere you dressed as a woman
   to assassinate - you're nodding - members of the PLO.

   EHUD BARAK:

   (over) Not as a hobby, yuh.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Chris Farnham" &lt;chris.farnham@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: alerts@stratfor.com
   Sent: Monday, November 7, 2011 2:02:00 AM
   Subject: G3* - IRAN/UN/MIL - Iran IAEA report leaked

           I'm thinking we'll see a bucket load of items out of Iran, the US
           and Europe today regarding the coming IAEA report and all the
           politicing around it. Might as well have them all in one place for
           ease of reading [chris]

   Obviously waaaaay too much info here to rep. The key element of this item
   is the leaking of the info before the release of the report in order to
   prime/set the agenda by focusing on particular aspects and findings of the
   report. this leak is obviously a part of the concerted PR operation on
   behalf of the Israelis, US and possibly some Europeans and KSA. The items
   of the report are secondary in importance to the agenda that is being
   played out here to increase pressure on Iran, probably in the attempt to
   increase sanctions and push it to the top of the global consciousness thus
   giving the US increased leverage to bargain the best possible pull out of
   Iraq/Afghanistan [chris]

   there was a strange report of an anonymous speaker at a forum last friday,
   this may be related to that [johnblasing]

   IAEA says foreign expertise has brought Iran to threshold of nuclear
   capability

   http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iaea-says-foreign-expertise-has-brought-iran-to-threshold-of-nuclear-capability/2011/11/05/gIQAc6hjtM_print.html

   By Joby Warrick, Monday, November 7, 4:41 AM

   Intelligence provided to U.N. nuclear officials shows that Irana**s
   government has mastered the critical steps needed to build a nuclear
   weapon, receiving assistance from foreign scientists to overcome key
   technical hurdles, according to Western diplomats and nuclear experts
   briefed on the findings.

   Documents and other records provide new details on the role played by a
   former Soviet weapons scientist who allegedly tutored Iranians over
   several years on building high-precision detonators of the kind used to
   trigger a nuclear chain reaction, the officials and experts said. Crucial
   technology linked to experts in Pakistan and North Korea also helped
   propel Iran to the threshold of nuclear capability, they added.

   The officials, citing secret intelligence provided over several years to
   the International Atomic Energy Agency, said the records reinforce
   concerns that Iran continued to conduct weapons-related research after
   2003 a** when, U.S. intelligence agencies believe, Iranian leaders halted
   such experiments in response to international and domestic pressures.

   The U.N. nuclear watchdog is due to release a report this week laying out
   its findings on Irana**s efforts to obtain sensitive nuclear technology.
   Fears that Iran could quickly build an atomic bomb if it chooses to has
   fueled anti-Iran rhetoric and new threats of military strikes. Some U.S.
   arms-control groups have cautioned against what they fear could be an
   overreaction to the report, saying there is still time to persuade Iran to
   change its behavior.

   Iranian officials expressed indifference about the report.

   a**Let them publish and see what happens,a** said Irana**s foreign
   minister and former nuclear top official, Ali Akbar Salehi, the
   semiofficial Mehr News Agency reported Saturday.

   Salehi said that the controversy over Irana**s nuclear program is a**100
   percent politicala** and that the IAEA is a**under pressure from foreign
   powers.a**

   a**Never really stoppeda**

   Although the IAEA has chided Iran for years to come clean about a number
   of apparently weapons-related scientific projects, the new disclosures
   fill out the contours of an apparent secret research program that was more
   ambitious, more organized and more successful than commonly suspected.
   Beginning early in the last decade and apparently resuming a** though at a
   more measured pace a** after a pause in 2003, Iranian scientists worked
   concurrently across multiple disciplines to obtain key skills needed to
   make and test a nuclear weapon that could fit inside the countrya**s
   long-range missiles, said David Albright, a former IAEA official who has
   reviewed the intelligence files.
   a**The program never really stopped,a** said Albright, president of the
   Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security. The
   institute performs widely respected independent analyses of nuclear
   programs in countries around the world, often drawing from IAEA data.

   a**After 2003, money was made available for research in areas that sure
   look like nuclear weapons work but were hidden within civilian
   institutions,a** Albright said.

   U.S. intelligence officials maintain that Irana**s leaders have not
   decided whether to build nuclear weapons but are intent on gathering all
   the components and skills so they can quickly assemble a bomb if they
   choose to. Iran has consistently maintained that its nuclear activities
   are peaceful and intended only to generate electricity.

   The IAEA has declined to comment on the intelligence it has received from
   member states, including the United States, pending the release of its
   report.

   But some of the highlights were described in a presentation by Albright at
   a private conference of intelligence professionals last week. PowerPoint
   slides from the presentation were obtained by The Washington Post, and
   details of Albrighta**s summary were confirmed by two European diplomats
   privy to the IAEAa**s internal reports. The two officials spoke on the
   condition of anonymity, in keeping with diplomatic protocol.

   Albright said IAEA officials, based on the totality of the evidence given
   to them, have concluded that Iran a**has sufficient information to design
   and produce a workable implosion nuclear devicea** using highly enriched
   uranium as its fissile core. In the presentation, he described
   intelligence that points to a formalized and rigorous process for gaining
   all the necessary skills for weapons-building, using native talent as well
   as a generous helping of foreign expertise.

   a**The [intelligence] points to a comprehensive project structure and
   hierarchy with clear responsibilities, timelines and deliverables,a**
   Albright said, according to the notes from the presentation.

   Key outside assistance

   According to Albright, one key breakthrough that has not been publicly
   described was Irana**s success in obtaining design information for a
   device known as an R265 generator. The device is a hemispherical aluminum
   shell with an intricate array of high explosives that detonate with
   split-second precision. These charges compress a small sphere of enriched
   uranium or plutonium to trigger a nuclear chain reaction.

   Creating such a device is a formidable technical challenge, and Iran
   needed outside assistance in designing the generator and testing its
   performance, Albright said.

   According to the intelligence provided to the IAEA, key assistance in both
   areas was provided by Vyacheslav Danilenko, a former Soviet nuclear
   scientist who was contracted in the mid-1990s by Irana**s Physics Research
   Center, a facility linked to the countrya**s nuclear program. Documents
   provided to the U.N. officials showed that Danilenko offered assistance to
   the Iranians over at least five years, giving lectures and sharing
   research papers on developing and testing an explosives package that the
   Iranians apparently incorporated into their warhead design, according to
   two officials with access to the IAEAa**s confidential files.

   Danilenkoa**s role was judged to be so critical that IAEA investigators
   devoted considerable effort to obtaining his cooperation, the two
   officials said. The scientist acknowledged his role but said he thought
   his work was limited to assisting civilian engineering projects, the
   sources said.

   There is no evidence that Russian government officials knew of
   Danilenkoa**s activities in Iran. AE-mails requesting comment from Russian
   officials in Washington and Moscow were not returned. Efforts to reach
   Danilenko through his former company were not successful.

   Iran relied on foreign experts to supply mathematical formulas and codes
   for theoretical design work a** some of which appear to have originated in
   North Korea, diplomats and weapons experts say. Additional help appears to
   have come from the father of Pakistana**s nuclear program, Abdul Qadeer
   Khan, whose design for a device known as a neutron initiator was found in
   Iran, the sources said. Khan is known to have provided nuclear blueprints
   to Libya that included a neutron initiator, a device that shoots a stream
   of atomic particles into a nuclear weapona**s fissile core at the start of
   the nuclear chain reaction.

   One Iranian document provided to the IAEA portrayed Iranian scientists as
   discussing plans to conduct a four-year study of neutron initiators
   beginning in 2007, four years after Iran was said to have halted such
   research.

   a**It is unknown if it commenced or progressed as planned,a** Albright
   said.
   The disclosures come against a backdrop of new threats of military strikes
   on Iran. Israeli newspapers reported last week that there is high-level
   government support in Israel for a military attack on Irana**s nuclear
   installations.

   a**One of the problems with such open threats of military action is that
   it furthers the drift towards a military conflict and makes it more
   difficult to dial down tensions,a** said Peter Crail, a nonproliferation
   analyst with the Arms Control Association, a Washington advocacy group.
   a**It also risks creating an assumption that we can always end Irana**s
   nuclear program with a few airstrikes if nothing else works. Thata**s
   simply not the case.a**

   Special correspondent Thomas Erdbrink in Tehran contributed to this
   report.

     (Corr) Cleric asks IAEA head to avoid "lies"against Iran, save dignity
     of Agency

     At 0522 gmt, IRTV1 started airing the Id al-Adha prayer sermons in
     Tehran by Ayatollah Seyyed Ahmad Khatami live. Ayatollah Khatami listed
     10 types of plots that America and Israel have resorted to against Iran
     during the past 32 year.

     He said: "During the past 32 years, we have witnessed different types of
     plots of the global arrogance against us, especially of the US and its
     illegitimate child, the Zionist regime. I have written down 10 types of
     these [plots] - seven of which refer to the domestic field and three
     others the foreign field."

     He described "ethnic wars" as the first type of plots. Then he spoke
     about "assassinations" and said: "Over 12,000 people have been
     assassinated by the US and its agents in this country" He added that
     Iran possesses 100 "undeniable documents" that prove America's
     involvement in the assassinations inside the country and outside of it,
     in other countries.

     He referred to the "eight-year imposed war" (Iraq-Iran war) as the third
     type of plot and termed "influences up to the level of the president" as
     the fourth type of plots (reference to the 2009 presidential candidate
     Mirhoseyn Musavi).

     Describing "coups" as the fifth type of plot, he said that six coups
     were initiated by the US in Iran, all of which, he said were "foiled"
     with the help of God.

     He called the "soft warfare and"1388 sedition" (2009 post-poll protests)
     are the sixth and seventh types of America's and Israel's plots against
     Iran.

     Regarding the foreign types of plots, Khatami said: "Eight: Intrusion
     into Afghanistan aimed at creating a base against the Islamic Iran.
     Nine: Intrusion into Iraq to establish control over Iran. 10: New Middle
     East, which was aimed at curbing the wave of the huge Islamic
     Revolution."

     He added that all these plots were "foiled" with the help of God.

     Source: Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1, Tehran, in
     Persian 0525gmt 07 Nov 11

     BBC Mon Alert ME1 MEPol sh

              A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

     Top cleric lists 10 types of US, Israel "plots" against Iran

     At 0522 gmt, IRTV1 started airing the Id al-Adha prayer sermons in
     Tehran by Ayatollah Seyyed Ahmad Khatami live. Ayatollah Khatami listed
     10 types of plots that America and Israel have resorted to against Iran
     during the past 32 year.

     He said: "During the past 32 years, we have witnessed different types of
     plots of the global arrogance against us, especially of the US and its
     illegitimate child, the Zionist regime. I have written down 10 types of
     these [plots] - seven of which refer to the domestic field and three
     others the foreign field."

     He described "ethnic wars" as the first type of plots. Then he spoke
     about "assassinations" and said: "Over 12,000 people have been
     assassinated by the US and its agents in this country" He added that
     Iran possesses 100 "undeniable documents" that prove America's
     involvement in the assassinations inside the country and outside of it,
     in other countries.

     He referred to the "eight-year imposed war" (Iraq-Iran war) as the third
     type of plot and termed "influences up to the level of the president" as
     the fourth type of plots (reference to the 2009 presidential candidate
     Mirhoseyn Musavi).

     Describing "coups" as the fifth type of plot, he said that six coups
     were initiated by the US in Iran, all of which, he said were "foiled"
     with the help of God.

     He called the "soft warfare and"1388 sedition" (2009 post-poll protests)
     are the sixth and seventh types of America's and Israel's plots against
     Iran.

     Regarding the foreign types of plots, Khatami said: "Eight: Intrusion
     into Afghanistan aimed at creating a base against the Islamic Iran.
     Nine: Intrusion into Iraq to establish control over Iran. 10: New Middle
     East, which was aimed at curbing the wave of the huge Islamic
     Revolution."

     He added that all these plots were "foiled" with the help of God.

     Source: Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1, Tehran, in
     Persian 0522gmt 07 Nov 11

     BBC Mon Alert ME1 MEPol sh

              A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

       More anti-Western remarks attributed to Khatami [chris]

       Top clear asks IAEA chief to avoid "lies" against Iran, save dignity
       of Agency

       During the Id al-Adha sermons at Tehran University being aired live by
       IRTV1, Ayatollah Seyyed Ahmad Khatami referred to the upcoming IAEA
       report on Iran nuclear programme and addressed the Secretary-General
       of the Agency [Yukiya Amano], saying: "Do not insult the dignity of
       the International Atomic Energy Agency with your conduct."

       He added that if he [Amano] is used as a "week tool of the US" and
       acts against the "independent nation" of Iran and "publishes lies" in
       the form of a document then "whatever dignity is left of the Agency,
       will be wiped off."

       Thanking God for his blessings, he further said that all "plots"
       against Iran have always been "nullified".

       He added: "I explicitly tell America that the period of superpower has
       ended [for you]. America is being considered like an empty drum in the
       world, today. Neither are you the America of the past, nor the Islamic
       Iran is Iran of the past of during the Shah's time."

       He added that Iran today is a strong country that can confront any
       plot in a manner that will be a "lesson" for others.

       Source: Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1, Tehran, in
       Persian 0525gmt 07 Nov 11

       BBC Mon Alert ME1 MEPol sh

              A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

    Iran foreign minister terms Bushehr plant "symbol" of Iran-Russia ties   
                                                                             
    Text of report by Iranian official government news agency IRNA website   
                                                                             
    Tehran, 6 November, IRNA: Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said here on 
    Sunday [6 November] that Bushehr nuclear power plant is a symbol of      
    Iran-Russia cooperation.                                                 
                                                                             
    He made the remark in a meeting with new Russian Ambassador to Iran Leon 
    Jagarian, who submitted a copy of his credentials to Salehi.             
                                                                             
    "Bushehr power plant as a symbol of Iran-Russia cooperation proves that  
    the two countries can exchange views and cooperate at regional and       
    international levels.                                                    
                                                                             
    Pointing to the Iran-Russia excellent relations, Salehi said             
    unfortunately the volume of trade exchange between the two countries is  
    not enough while they have high potentials in this regard.               
                                                                             
    Expressing Iran's readiness to increase the current volume of economic   
    exchange by 10bn dollars, he said the two countries can expand their     
    cooperation in such fields as politics, economy, trade, culture, oil and 
    gas and power plant construction.                                        
                                                                             
    Jagarian described the recent meeting between the Iranian and Russian    
    presidents in Astana, Kazakhstan as a new phase in the two countries'    
    relations.                                                               
                                                                             
    He also expressed his country's readiness to cooperate with Iran at      
    regional and international levels.                                       
                                                                             
    Source: Islamic Republic News Agency website, Tehran, in English 1613gmt 
    06 Nov 11                                                                
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEPol sh                                                     

              A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

         Not on IRNA english yet - CR

    Attacking Iran would make US, Israel "pay heavy price" - official        
                                                                             
    Excerpt from report by Iranian news channel Press TV website             
                                                                             
    A member of Iran's Assembly of Expert says that the United States and    
    Israel will have to pay a heavy price for any military attack on Iran's  
    nuclear facilities.                                                      
                                                                             
    Seyyed Mahmud Alavi told IRNA on Sunday [6 November] that Washington and 
    Tel Aviv are aware of the fact that putting their anti-Iran threats into 
    practice would cost them dearly, and thus they would not become involved 
    in such folly.                                                           
                                                                             
    He stated that the US and Israel know that such empty threats cannot     
    intimidate Iran and also know that they would receive a crushing         
    response if they ever attack the Islamic Republic.                       
                                                                             
    [Passage omitted: background information]                                
                                                                             
    Source: Press TV website, Tehran, in English 1419gmt 06 Nov 11           
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEPol sh                                                     

              A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

           Transcript Ehud Barak interview
           Page last updated at 11:09 GMT, Sunday, 6 November 2011
           PLEASE NOTE "THE ANDREW MARR SHOW" MUST BE CREDITED IF ANY PART OF
           THIS TRANSCRIPT IS USED
           http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/andrew_marr_show/9632770.stm
           JEREMY VINE:

           Now by any standards Ehud Barak has had an astonishing career
           serving his country. Israel's Prime Minister during the Camp David
           negotiations with Yasser Arafat now serves as both Deputy Prime
           Minister and Defence Minister in the current government. Before
           entering politics, he was one of the country's most decorated
           soldiers carrying out the kind of military ops that are now the
           stuff of legend among many Israelis. So a man of peace or a man of
           war? When I met him in London recently, I began by asking why his
           government has authorised the building of more settlements despite
           international criticism.

           EHUD BARAK:

           We are building in Jerusalem. It's our capital. We are building in
           the Jewish neighbourhoods of Jerusalem. It's a city of 700,000
           people. You have to build and we will not accept anyone has the
           right to intervene in this. And we a*|

           JEREMY VINE:

           (over) Well that is seen as speeding up, isn't it? That's seen as
           acceleration.

           EHUD BARAK:

           (over) No, it's not. No speeding up a*| It's about numbers and
           pace, numbers per unit time. When Olmert was Prime Minister five
           years ago, we were building our defence minister twice the rate we
           are building now. When I was Prime Minister ten years ago, we were
           building four times the rate we are building right now. So it's
           not about the pace.

           JEREMY VINE:

           But why not a*| Again it's about the symbolism. Why not just stop
           for a while because the other side see this as getting in the way,
           don't they?

           EHUD BARAK:

           No, no, the other side plays with it as a kind of manipulation to
           put certain preconditions into the dialogue. The reason that
           Olmert's government and my government could do it is because
           somehow we managed to convince the rest of the world that we are
           genuine in our talks and now we are facing more sophisticated
           Palestinian group which feels the zeitgeist behind them. They feel
           that they have good will from many international bodies, so they
           try to play with this issue of settlement. It really shouldn't
           matter because a*|

           JEREMY VINE:

           Well you said something very, very interesting there - the phrases
           you've used - where you say you're dealing with a sophisticated
           Palestinian leadership now and they're very zeitgeisty and I
           couldn't have put it better myself in these questions. They're
           getting world opinion behind them, aren't they?

           EHUD BARAK:

           Yuh, yuh. We have to work properly to allow our people, our kind
           of spokesmen to talk more often to others, but it won't solve the
           issue. It cannot a*|

           JEREMY VINE:

           (over) Are you frustrated at that?

           EHUD BARAK:

           I am a little bit frustrated by the fact that we cannot convince
           even some of our friends.

           JEREMY VINE:

           Okay, just to be clear. You accept that it strengthens Hamas if
           you go on building these settlements or not?

           EHUD BARAK:

           I don't think it relates to Hamas. Hamas basically is challenging
           Abu Mazen and the Palestinian authority. They are turning to
           terror. We cannot negotiate with them. Hamas are shooting at us
           rockets. You know just last week we got dozens of rockets in our
           southern part of the country. One man, father of four, was killed.
           That's something that cannot go together with peacemaking.

           JEREMY VINE:

           Let me change the subject.

           EHUD BARAK:

           (over) So it will be a challenge for Abu Mazen to take control
           over his own political system.

           JEREMY VINE:
           Alright, alright, I want to just move on because we haven't got
           much time. I want to talk to you about Iran as well. And I gather
           if we had the Israeli newspapers here and we opened them up, we
           would see that everyone in Israel is now thinking that you're
           getting ready to attack Iran. Is that right? Is that what people
           are saying?

           EHUD BARAK:

           Believe me, don't a*| I do not try to underestimate the nature of
           the Iranian threat. That's a major threat for the stability of the
           whole region, probably of the whole world. A nuclear Iran - and
           they are determined to reach nuclear military capability - can
           open a major arms race, nuclear arms race in the whole Middle
           East. It can change the effectiveness of their supporting and
           their co-sponsoring of terror all around the region. They can a*|

           JEREMY VINE:

           (over) Which is why the Israeli papers are saying aha, you're
           about to strike on them.

           EHUD BARAK:

           No, but I am telling it for years now. And they will intimidate
           neighbours in a much more effective way, especially when America
           and others are moving out of the region. I hope that the IAEA
           Report next week will tell the whole world a little bit more
           explicitly what they are really doing in regard to their nuclear
           plan.

           JEREMY VINE:

           (over) This is the narrative that's coming together. It's the
           missile test. It's the long range bombing plan. It's the IAEA
           Report which you mentioned. So they may say that Iran is getting
           closer to a bomb.

           EHUD BARAK:

           We strongly believe that sanctions are effective or could be
           effective if they are little and paralysing enough, that diplomacy
           could work if enough unity could be synchronised between the major
           players, but that no option should be removed from the table.

           JEREMY VINE:

           You have an amazing military record, and for those who don't know
           it, 19... - correct me if I'm wrong here - 1972 led the mission to
           free hostages on a Sabena flight; 1973, I read somewhere you
           dressed as a woman to assassinate - you're nodding - members of
           the PLO.

           EHUD BARAK:

           (over) Not as a hobby, yuh.

           JEREMY VINE:

           Okay. A scene in the film Munich reflected that. You were involved
           in Operation Entebbe in 1976; helped dismantle the Palestinian
           terror cell known as Black September. I'm thinking you're not
           really into diplomacy here. You would like to attack Iran.

           EHUD BARAK:

           No, I was also Foreign Affairs Minister of Israel and Prime
           Minister. In the last 15 years I didn't shot a single shot at
           anyone and I played a lot round the diplomatic saloons and the TV
           interviews as well. You know it's too serious. Israel is there. A
           person cannot choose his parents and a nation cannot choose its
           neighbours. We are living in a tough neighbourhood. No mercy for
           the weak, no second opportunity for those who cannot defend
           themselves. We would love to have the Canadians as our neighbours,
           but unfortunately the Americans got them. It's a tough
           neighbourhood and we have to be strong.

           JEREMY VINE:

           (over) One more because if you suddenly attack Iran next week, I
           want to make sure we've asked every question here. Have you got
           British support for that - for flying over them and dropping a
           bomb on their nuclear reactors?

           EHUD BARAK:

           I'm not going even to respond to this. May I say we are not a*|
           don't worry about your next week programme, but the Iranian
           challenge is serious. This is something that should be prevented
           from happening. We have to stay there. We are strong. Israel is
           the strongest country a thousand miles around Jerusalem. We plan
           to remain the strongest country around. But we are at the same
           time peaceful. We are ready to make peace at any moment with any
           one of our neighbours.

           JEREMY VINE:

           So pretty cautious. Ehud Barak there, Israel's Defence Minister.
           No options ruled out on Iran.

           INTERVIEW ENDS

 --
 Clint Richards
 Global Monitor
 clint.richards@stratfor.com
 cell: 81 080 4477 5316
 office: 512 744 4300 ex:40841

           Iran Calligrapher's Association of North America, according to
           Google. Possibly not the entity being referred to below, though
           [chris]

           No idea what ICANA is... - CR

    Nuclear talks possible only if IAEA submits "honest" report - Iran       
    official                                                                 
                                                                             
    Text of report by Iranian news channel Press TV website                  
                                                                             
    An Iranian lawmaker says Iran has nothing to hide regarding its nuclear  
    programme and Tehran will only participate in negotiations if the UN     
    atomic agency is "honest" in its reports.                                
                                                                             
    Deputy Chairman of Iran's Majlis (parliament) National Security and      
    Foreign Policy Committee Esma'il Kowsari said that if the International  
    Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) resorts to deception then Iran "will set     
    conditions for talks."                                                   
                                                                             
    He went on to say that so long as the IAEA submits to the will of        
    arrogant powers particularly Washington, the agency's reports will       
    always be compiled to portray Iran in a negative light.                  
                                                                             
    "While the US has between 7,000 to 10,000 nuclear warheads and no other  
    country has atrocities such as Nagasaki and Hiroshima on its record, the 
    agency makes no effort to act against it (the US) and does not even dare 
    write a report against it," ICANA quoted him as saying on Sunday.        
                                                                             
    The IAEA director-general Yukiya Amano is scheduled to submit his new    
    report on Iran's nuclear case to IAEA member states on 8 November 2011.  
                                                                             
    However, Amano's visit to Washington for talks with US officials ahead   
    of the publication of the report has cast grave suspicion over its       
    objectivity and sincerity.                                               
                                                                             
    Iran has always rejected US allegations that it is pursuing a military   
    nuclear program and asserted the right to develop and acquire nuclear    
    technology for peaceful purposes as a signatory to the Non-Proliferation 
    Treaty [NPT].                                                            
                                                                             
    Source: Press TV website, Tehran, in English 1925gmt 06 Nov 11           
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEPol sh                                                     

              A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

           On 11/6/11 9:43 PM, Chris Farnham wrote:

             al-Ahkbar isn't in english - CR

               Iran's Ahmadinejad defiant as U.S. raises heat-paper
               http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/irans-ahmadinejad-defiant-as-us-raises-heat-paper/
               06 Nov 2011 23:19

               CAIRO, Nov 7 (Reuters) - The United States fears Iran's
               growing military power because it is now able to compete with
               Israel and the West, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
               said in comments carried by an Egyptian newspaper on Monday.

               Responding to a toughening stance from the United States and
               Israel against Tehran, Ahmadinejad accused Washington of
               inventing conspiracies to discredit Iran and sowing discord
               with its near neighbour Saudi Arabia.

               "Yes, we have military capabilities that are different from
               any other country in the region," Egyptian daily al-Akhbar
               cited Ahmadinejad as saying. "Iran is increasing in capability
               and advancement and therefore we are able to compete with
               Israel and the West and especially the United States."

               "The U.S. fears Iran's capability," he told the paper. "Iran
               will not permit (anyone from making) a move against it."
               Iran's Islamic rulers, who say Israel has no right to exist,
               deny accusations that they are seeking nuclear weapons and
               have warned they will respond to any attacks by striking at
               Israel and U.S. interests in the Gulf.

               A senior U.S. military official said on Friday Iran had become
               the biggest threat to the United States and Israel's president
               said the military option to stop the Islamic republic from
               obtaining nuclear weapons was nearer.

               Ahmadinejad repeated that Iran does not own a nuclear bomb,
               but said Israel's end was inevitable.
               The U.N. nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, is expected this week to
               issue its most detailed report yet on research in Iran seen as
               geared to developing atomic bombs.

               "It is Israel that has about 300 nuclear warheads. Iran is
               only keen to have nuclear capability for peaceful means," he
               said, accusing Washington of lumping Iran with Syria, the
               Islamist Hamas movement that rules Gaza and Hezbollah in
               Lebanon.

               The U.S. portrays those four as "the Axis of Evil to save the
               Zionist entity (Israel). But the Zionists are bound to go out
               of existence," he said.

               Responding to a U.S. claim that Iran was involved in a plot to
               kill the Saudi ambassador to Washington, Ahmadinejad said:
               "Iran is farthest from thinking of carrying out such crimes
               but the U.S. is always inventing conspiracies against Iran".

               "The U.S. fears any friendship between us and Saudi Arabia and
               therefore incites disagreements," he said. "To stop the U.S.
               in its tracks we must deepen the elements of friendship... We
               are ready for this and the relation between Saudi and Iran
               already exists and has not been cut off." (Reporting by Marwa
               Awad; Writing by Tom Pfeiffer; Editing by Matthew Jones)

 --
 Clint Richards
 Global Monitor
 clint.richards@stratfor.com
 cell: 81 080 4477 5316
 office: 512 744 4300 ex:40841

 --
 Clint Richards
 Global Monitor
 clint.richards@stratfor.com
 cell: 81 080 4477 5316
 office: 512 744 4300 ex:40841

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967
   www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1592836_re-g3-iran-un-mil-iran-iaea-report-leaked-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>abe.selig@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>jacob.shapiro@att.blackberry.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1593061</id>
    <title>[alpha] Fw: Oslo
</title>
    <description>   Trapwire

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:00:28 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Oslo

   My money's on a Libyan connection.

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 18:04:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1593061_-alpha-fw-oslo-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1593553</id>
    <title>Re: [Fwd: RE: Mossad agent arrested over Dubai murder]
</title>
    <description>I have VERY good information this was a contract job.  The mission was
contracted by the MOSSAD.  In essence, subbed out under contract.  The
last few hits have been subbed out.  I also have VERY good information
that the Iranian physicist hit was also a subbed out job.  More in
person at the T meeting Tuesday, can't put anything in writing.

Sean Noonan wrote:
&gt; Ah, that makes more sense. That daily mail story was pretty sensationalized.
&gt; 
&gt; Looks like Melman is doing his job.  I enjoyed his article on the matter:
&gt; 
&gt; http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/germany-may-have-intentionally-leaked-alleged-mossad-man-s-arrest-1.295977
&gt; 
&gt; Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt; No, I made no statement.  Forwarded Yossi the link to the story and that
&gt;&gt; was his response.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Sean Noonan wrote:
&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt; Was your statement that the arrest was over the Dubai murder? Brodsky is
&gt;&gt;&gt; wanted for the passport issue.  The Sherrif of Dubai, Lt. Gen. Dhahi
&gt;&gt;&gt; Khalfan Tamim (remember him?), has said they have no interest in the
&gt;&gt;&gt; suspect unless directly linked to the murders themselves. 
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; -------- Original Message --------
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: 	RE: Mossad agent arrested over Dubai murder
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Date: 	Mon, 14 Jun 2010 08:44:02 +0300
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; From: 	Yossi Melman &lt;Ymelman@haaretz.co.il&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: 	Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Not true he was arrested by a request of germany and not dubai over the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; obtaining a german passport deceptively which Was used in the murder/
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt; -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt; Sean Noonan
&gt;&gt;&gt; Tactical Analyst
&gt;&gt;&gt; Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt;&gt;&gt; Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt;&gt;&gt; www.stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt; 
&gt; -- 
&gt; Sean Noonan
&gt; Tactical Analyst
&gt; Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt; Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt; www.stratfor.com
&gt; 
</description>
    <date>2010-06-14 16:41:36</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1593553_re-fwd-re-mossad-agent-arrested-over-dubai-murder-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1594481</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-11 13:59:34</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1594481_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1597875</id>
    <title>Re: London Terror Surveillance (not for pub)
</title>
    <description>   granted we have a strong theory about the GCHQ/MI6 officer who was killed,
   but could this person or persons conducting surveillance have been
   involved?

   (though it really does look like the GCHQ guy locked himself in a bag and
   couldn't get out....)
   Fred Burton wrote:

     aQ terrorist surveillance has been positively identified outside of MI6
     Hqs in London.  MI5 is monitoring the terrorist suspect observed
     conducting the pre-operational surveillance.   
      
      

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-09-24 02:21:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-16 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1597875_re-london-terror-surveillance-not-for-pub-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1598136</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] (more) TrapWire on Kabul Hotel Attack
</title>
    <description>   Just FYI, an AFP report citing witnesses said they came in civilian
   clothing--

   Witness Sayed Hussain said he was inside the hotel compound when it
   started.

   "I saw five to six men in civilian clothing armed with rifles who started
   shooting when they entered," he said, speaking close to the scene. "I lay
   down on the ground and soon after the police arrived."

   He added that police and the attackers then exchanged fire for about 10 to
   15 minutes before he heard a loud explosion.

   Another man, who did not want to give his name, said he had been at the
   hotel intending to have dinner with friends when he heard gunshots and lay
   down in a muddy ditch to hide.

   An Afghan guard was then shot nearby and fell on top of him, he said.

   http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5ilEuzK3PcB08rAsvjJYKKfM9PI7Q?docId=CNG.6e145485d1197582aa5fe96d397320c0.791

   On 6/29/11 9:27 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

     Nothing to confirm or refute this initial claim. But new reporting
     suggests attackers arrived dressed as Afghan police. This is standard MO
     for Taliban...and many terror groups as you know. Only thing that
     everyone agrees on right now is that this thing was meticulously
     planned, and clearly well surveilled ahead of time. This hotel has
     multiple layers of defense -- including armed guards -- and still the
     bad guys got in. We don't have a single hotel in this country with even
     10% of the security the Intercontinental had. When they decide to start
     targeting hotels here, it'll shooting fish in a barrel.

      

      

     Stormed in force out of a vehicle after one perp detonated a vest at the
     gate  (Mike, think this remains accurate?)

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-06-29 17:37:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1598136_re-alpha-more-trapwire-on-kabul-hotel-attack-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1600143</id>
    <title>London surveillance &amp; Russian Spies
</title>
    <description>   not for pub
    
   There is on-going aQ surveillance of several high-profile targets in
   London to include MI5, Scotland Yard and SIS Hqs; impacting on London
   links to the Russian spy round up on U.S. soil.   MI5 is strapped to the
   breaking point in looking at hadji running loose planning attacks and have
   reduced surveillance coverage's of Russian IO's (both known and suspected)
   inside the UK. 
    
   "The candle is burning at both ends" was the qoute. 
    
    
</description>
    <date>2010-07-07 04:14:57</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-16 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1600143_london-surveillance-and-russian-spies-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1600801</id>
    <title>Author of Comrade J on Tretyakov's death
</title>
    <description>   http://www.peteearley.com/blog/2010/07/09/sergei-tretyakov-comrade-j-has-died/

   Sergei Tretyakov, Comrade J, has died.
   Published by Pete on July 9, 2010 in Books and Personal.
   I am sorry to announce that my good friend, Sergei Tretyakov, the subject
   of my book, Comrade J: The Untold Secrets of Russia's Master Spy in
   America After the End of the Cold War, died unexpectedly on June 13th in
   his home with his wife, Helen.
   Sergei was 53.
   Helen asked those of us who were his friends to not immediately reveal his
   death until an autopsy could be performed under the supervision of the
   FBI. She was concerned that Sergei's former colleagues in Russia's SVR,
   which replaced the KGB as Russia's foreign intelligence service, might
   attempt to use his unexpected death for propaganda purposes.
   That autopsy has now been completed and it showed no evidence of foul
   play, according to an FBI official who spoke to me off-the-record. Helen
   said her husband died from massive cardiac arrest.
   In keeping with Russian Orthodox religious traditions, a private funeral
   was held on the third day after his death. On the ninth day, more than 200
   people attended a private celebration of his life. The guests included
   close friends, neighbors and persons who had worked with him in the United
   States.
   Sergei was called "the most important spy for the U.S. since the collapse
   of the Soviet Union" by an FBI official in my book. Unfortunately, because
   much of what he said is still being used by U. S. counter-intelligence
   officers, it will be years before the true extent of his contribution can
   be made public - if ever.
   Sergei Olegovich Tretyakov was born Oct. 5, 1956 in Moscow and rose
   quickly through the ranks to become the second-in-command of the KGB in
   New York City between 1995 to 2000. As such, he oversaw all Russian spy
   operations against the US and its allies in New York City and within the
   United Nations.
   When he defected on Oct. 11, 2000, with Helen and their daughter, Ksenia,
   the U.S. government took the family into hiding and during the next five
   years, they lived largely "off the grid." It wasn't until Comrade J was
   published and Sergei went on a book tour that his work both as a
   high-ranking KGB/SVR officer and U.S. operative was made public. It is
   thought that he spent at least three years working as a U.S. agent while
   he was still an SVR colonel in New York.
   Sergei, Helen and their daughter became U.S. citizens after they defected
   and although some federal officials feared for their safety, Sergei lived
   openly under his own name without protection - although when he traveled
   overseas, he always had an FBI escort. Sergei was convinced that his U.S.
   citizenship protected him from the SVR, even though he continued to
   publicly criticize his former colleagues, especially President Vladimir
   Putin.
   The recent arrests of eleven Russian "illegals" on June 28th by the FBI
   thrust Sergei's name into the news once again. The fact that he was in
   charge of all covert operations in New York City when several of the
   illegals entered the country suggested that he was aware of their
   operations and quickly led to speculation that he had tipped-off the FBI
   about the ring.
   However, on Thursday, a  informed source told me that Sergei was not
   involved in the case. Sergei told U.S. officials when he was debriefed
   about Russian "illegal" operations, but he did not know the individuals
   who later were arrested, my source said.
   I became close friends with Sergei and Helen while working on my book
   about their life and his career. They insisted that I stay with them in
   their home and during our weeks together, I witnessed first-hand how much
   he and Helen loved each other, their devotion to their daughter, and love
   for their new homeland. I also was delighted to discover that Helen was a
   gourmet cook!
   Sergei dispelled many of the Hollywood stereotypes of a Russian agent. He
   was well-educated, fluent in three languages, quick-witted, personable and
   able to laugh at his own mistakes when he didn't understand an American
   tradition or slang.
   He proved to be a tireless worker when I interviewed him. He would speak
   for ten hours straight, often pacing back-and-forth, in the family room of
   his house as we discussed his career. He had a fabulous memory that he had
   sharpened as a KGB/SVR officer and he refused to speculate or exaggerate
   when he discussed KGB/SVR operations.  He knew his enemies in Russia would
   use the slightest mistake to attack his credibility so he was scrupulous
   in what he said and the charges that he made.
   Having written bestselling books about two American traitors, including
   John Walker Jr., and his Family of Spies,and Aldrich Ames, the CIA
   turncoat, I was struck at how different Sergei was from U.S. traitors.
   Walker and Ames were motivated by greed and money. Sergei did not need
   money. Upon his return to Russia from New York, he was due to be promoted
   to the rank of general, which would have guaranteed him a cushy
   retirement. He had assets in Moscow worth more than two million U.S.
   dollars - money that was stripped from him after he defected.
   It was clear to me early on that he did not swtich sides for financial
   gain, but rather because he had lost faith in Russian leaders and he
   wanted a better life for his young daughter. He liked to say that he did
   not betray his homeland. Rather he and other ordinary citizens in Russia
   had been betrayed by Presidents Boris Yeltsin and Putin after the Soviet
   Union collapsed.
   Neither Walker or Ames ever wanted to become Russian citizens, but Sergei
   and his family relished their U.S. citizenship. Sergei often told me that
   Americans were naive because they took freedoms for granted and did not
   understand how unique our lives here are compared to life in an oppressive
   nation, such as Russia whose leaders often silence their critics,
   especially those in the media, with a bullet.
   One reason why I believe Sergei did not know about the 11 Russians who
   were arrested as illegals is because he did not hold back during our
   interviews in identifying persons whom he claimed were Russian spies.
   Among the individuals identified in my book were a former member of the
   Canadian Parliament, a top-ranking verification expert at the
   International Atomic Energy Agency, and a former U.N. official who Sergei
   helped place in the Oil For Food Program. That UN official diverted a half
   billion US dollars of UN humanitarian relief to Moscow under both the
   Yeltsin and Putin administrations and was rewarded by Putin for the
   thefts. Sergei was disgusted by that thievery and said so.
   In our interviews, he talked repeatedly about how Yeltsin had failed the
   Russian people by becoming a drunken stumble-bum who allowed Oligarchs to
   engorge themselves by stealing government property. He had similar harsh
   criticisms for Putin, whom Sergei described as an insignificant KGB
   officer who later as president surrounded himself with thugs. Their
   primary goal has been to enrich themselves, he charged.
   Sergei asked me to write his story at the suggestion of a director in the
   British intelligence service. They were having dinner when my name was
   mentioned because the director had read my book about Aldrich Ames and had
   admired it. Sergei waived his rights to any advance money from the
   publisher and received less than $10,000 from the book's sales even though
   it was a New York Times bestseller. Money was not his motive in telling
   his story.
   Instead, he hoped to sound a wake-up call about Russia. He was fond of
   saying that the Cold War never ended. Before the collapse of the Soviet
   Union, the KGB had a list of three main adversaries: (1.) The United
   States  (2.) NATO and (3.) China. After the KGB was disbanded and the SVR
   was formed, Sergei said a new edict came down announcing that the SVR had
   three main targets: (1.) The United States (2.) NATO and (3.) China.
   "What changed?" he asked, laughing.
   Those of us who were his friends will miss his sense of humor, his
   knowledge about Russia and KGB/SVR spy-craft,  and his almost child-like
   love for his new country.
   I was honored to write his life story and to call him my friend.
   I will miss not hearing his voice when I call.

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-07-09 17:11:42</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1600801_author-of-comrade-j-on-tretyakov-s-death-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>os@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1605272</id>
    <title>London Terror Surveillance (not for pub) 
</title>
    <description>   aQ terrorist surveillance has been positively identified outside of MI6
   Hqs in London.  MI5 is monitoring the terrorist suspect observed
   conducting the pre-operational surveillance.   
    
    
</description>
    <date>2010-09-24 00:01:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-16 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1605272_london-terror-surveillance-not-for-pub-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1605473</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Mercenary
   Contract hit

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Hoor Jangda &lt;hoor.jangda@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:25:36 -0500 (CDT)
   To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
   height.

   On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

     Was the shooter a Libyan?

     On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:26:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1605473_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1606414</id>
    <title>Re: London Terror Surveillance (not for pub)
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2010-09-24 02:21:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-16 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1606414_re-london-terror-surveillance-not-for-pub-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1614316</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in Iran
</title>
    <description>   The problem with Iran is that these guys have spun us in the past. 
   From: Chris Farnham &lt;chris.farnham@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 08:58:19 -0600 (CST)
   To: sean noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;, Scott Stewart
   &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in
   Iran
   If a source has a strong record for accuracy and the info being sent adds
   up I don't see why we need to wait for it to be corroborated.

   We also don't have the coverage in many regions that would allow us not to
   move on anything unless it was corroborated.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Chris Farnham" &lt;chris.farnham@stratfor.com&gt;, "Fred Burton"
   &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;, "Scott Stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, 15 November, 2011 1:48:27 AM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in
   Iran

   The problem is that analysts are allowed to write on a topic heavily
   relying on their own sources.

   This shouldn't happen unless the source is well corroborated. Or maybe
   shouldn't happen at all. This is something we can fix easily as the
   company gets bigger.

   And Fred, we're keeping that insight in mind. I don't take it as gospel,
   but we are well aware that parts of it are being confirmed.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Chris Farnham &lt;chris.farnham@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 08:43:17 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in
   Iran
   Disagree. As WO I see a lot of insight that we give great credit to that
   is never corroborated by OS or is at least not until much later in the
   game.

   In regards to this specific piece of insight I would strongly suggest that
   it is the kind of insight that you take notice of but until you get some
   kind of corroborating info (be it from more insight or OS) it is best to
   view critically.

   I mean if we saw this published by Alex Jones or on Debka we'd laugh at
   it.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: alpha@stratfor.com
   Sent: Tuesday, 15 November, 2011 1:30:29 AM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in
   Iran

   Yes but an intelligence agency that secures a single piece of insight that
   is then corroborated by the infamous OS leads one to believe that either
   the same source is responsible for both or perhaps there is smoke that
   indicates a fire?    We tend to not believe things unless there is OS. 
   The best intel never see's the light of day.  I'm more circumspect when it
   is in the OS...unless of course, we planted it.  

   p.s. I'm offended that we may believe an Iranian before a Jew. 

   cc:  APAC, JINSA. 

   On 11/14/2011 8:21 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     As an intelligence entity we can't simply accept a single piece of
     insight as truth.

     On 11/14/11 9:10 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

       Guerrilla actions behind enemy lines.  

       If we think the Izzies have set back waiting on Iran to create a bomb
       we are like the CIA with their inability to predict just about
       anything. 

       Check INSIGHT I posted last week that everyone discounted.  How come
       if its not in OS we nash our teeth?  Intelligence agencies exist to
       have sources.  That is what we are.  

       On 11/14/2011 8:06 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

         Penetrating a major military installation and causing a blast is a
         totally different ballgame. Not saying it can't happen. But we can't
         assume that because they did stuxnet that they are capable of doing
         this blast as well. It is a huge leap in capabilities.

         Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
         Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
         Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 08:03:34 -0600 (CST)
         To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
         ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
         Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
         blast in Iran
         It clearly does not. Look at the thousand centrifuges. Please reread
         the 2 stuxnet analyses.

         There are enough iranians who have aliyah'd to israel that they
         could easily train a persian looking, farsi speaking jew to go into
         Iran for sabotage and not get caught. I don't know that this is
         happening nor do I assume that there would not be mistakes, but its
         very possible to do this undetected. The key is recruiting human
         agents on the bases. This was clearly done with stuxnet, though it
         may have been unknowingly

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: "Kamran Bokhari" &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
         Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
         Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 07:59:47 -0600 (CST)
         To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
         ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
         Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
         blast in Iran
         Yeah this seems really unlikely. '79 was a whole different reality.
         The security establishment has the placed locked down.
         Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: Abe Selig &lt;abe.selig@stratfor.com&gt;
         Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
         Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 07:45:14 -0600 (CST)
         To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
         ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
         Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
         blast in Iran
         There are still about 20,000 Jews in Iran (Tehran and Esfahan
         mostly), but IMO, they are far too scared of being accused as
         Israeli spies too actually help Israel out.

         On 11/14/11 7:32 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           Ah.  As stick said, they would more likely use proxies.  But if
           not,  special operations forces do often move undetected.  Don't
           think of them as going in on a helicopter, think of them as going
           in with a group of migrant workers crossing the border.  There
           used to be a lot of jews in Iran, not so much anymore, that's who
           I would recruit form. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: "Kamran Bokhari" &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
           To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
           Sent: Monday, November 14, 2011 7:11:15 AM
           Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
           blast in Iran

           See insight below.
           Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
           Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
           Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 07:10:06 -0600 (CST)
           To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
           ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
           Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
           blast in Iran
           what commandos?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: "Kamran Bokhari" &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
           To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
           Sent: Monday, November 14, 2011 6:39:07 AM
           Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
           blast in Iran

           How did Israeli commandos get to operate deep inside Iran without
           being detected?
           Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
           Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
           Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 05:54:41 -0600 (CST)
           To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
           ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
           Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
           blast in Iran
           I agree.  The argument here is that the proponents of conventional
           war are ones that want the oil prices--but is it really that
           simple?  What about other economic effects?  For Israel, by this
           argument, it doesn't matter what method as long as it sets Iran
           back----I agree with this.  However, the confidence that this guy
           has does not show publicly.  By that, I mean look at what Dagan
           was saying a year ago, and how quiet Israeli leaders have been. 
           Suddenly they are really pushing the issue, and while Dagan isn't
           it, his line is that conventional war would be a mistake, not that
           Iran doesn't need to be dealt with.  I don't really like trying to
           interpret public statements, but I think there is something here,
           and that's why I keep pushing this. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: "Chris Farnham" &lt;chris.farnham@stratfor.com&gt;
           To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
           Sent: Sunday, November 13, 2011 7:22:52 PM
           Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
           blast in Iran

           I think the info that Fred sent in previously needs to be looked
           quite seriously here.

           The insight seems like quite a stretch however it has been put out
           there for some reason or another and is now playing in to what we
           are seeing.

           Insight below:

           Source below was asked to clarify his remarks that the nuclear
           infrastructure had been destroyed.  Source response:

           Israeli commandos in collaboration with Kurd forces destroyed few
           underground facilities mainly used for the Iranian defense and
           nuclear research projects.

           Despite the reports in the media and against any public knowledge,
           the promoter of a massive Israeli attack on Syria is the axis
           India-Russia-Turkey-Saudi Arabia. The axis US-Germany-France-China
           is against such an attack from obvious reasons. Not many people
           know that Russia is one of Israel's largest military partners and
           India is Israel's largest client.

           If a direct conflict between Iran and Israel erupts, Russia and
           Saudi Arabia will gain the advantages on oil increasing prices. On
           the other hand, China and Europe are expected to loose from an oil
           crisis as a result of a conflict. Based on Israeli plans, the
           attack on Iran will last only 48 hours but will be so destructive
           that Iran will be unable to retaliate or recover and the
           government will fall. It is hard to believe that Hamas or
           Hezbollah will try to get involved in this conflict.

           In the open media many are pushing and expecting Israel to launch
           a massive attack on Iran. Even if the Israelis have the
           capabilities and are ready to attack by air, sea and land, there
           is no need to attack the nuclear program at this point after the
           commandos destroyed a significant part of it.

           If a massive attack on Iran happens soon, then the attack will
           have political and oil reasons and not nuclear. It is also very
           hard to believe that the Israelis will initiate an attack unless
           they act as a contractor for other nations or if Iran or its
           proxies attack first. With the revealed of the new UN report the
           Israelis have green light to take care of the Iranian proxies in
           Gaza and Lebanon now with the entire world watching Iran. I think
           that we should expect escalations on these fronts rather than an
           Israeli attack on Iran.

           On 11/7/11 8:09 AM, Chris Farnham wrote: Ah, what? Israel has
           already destroyed the Iranian prog/infra and this is all being
           engineered by Europeans so people forget about the economy
           crisis?!

           How and when did the Israelis destroy the infra on the ground?

           Why is that we see the vast majority of the increase in pressure
           coming from Israel (I mean straight from people's mouths) and from
           the US (Such as Albright in the WaPo)?

           Would anyone actually accept that this could let the Europeans
           forget about the Euro crisis, something they have been
           experiencing every day for over a year?!

           Do we attribute any credibility to this item at all? I don't even
           see what possible disinfo purposes this could serve.

           On 11/7/11 7:54 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

             Code: IL701
             Publication: for background
             Attribution: none
             Source Description - Confirmed Israeli Intelligence Agent
             Source reliability: Still testing
             Item credibility: untested
             Source handler: Fred

             Source was asked what he thought of reports that the Israelis
             were preparing a military offensive against Iran.  Response:

             I think this is a diversion. The Israelis already destroyed all
             the Iranian nuclear infrastructure on the ground weeks ago. The
             current "let's bomb Iran" campaign was ordered by the EU leaders
             to divert the public attention from their at home financial
             problems. It plays also well for the US  since Pakistan, Russia
             and N. Korea are mentioned in the report. 

             The result of this campaign will be massive attacks on Gaza and
             strikes on Hezbollah in both Lebanon and Syria.

             --

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
           To: analysts@stratfor.com
           Sent: Monday, 14 November, 2011 11:52:04 AM
           Subject: Re: S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in
           Iran

           wow, that's an extremely revealing statement.  The Israelis (i
           believe it was even Barak then too) made very similar comments
           following the Stuxnet news as well.  THe whole 'I'm not going to
           admit publicly that we did it, but boy that was nice.' 

           i think we need a piece laying out the details as far as we know
           of what happened and where and point out the holes in the accident
           theory. i think our assessment on the constraints of an Israeli
           attack on Iranian sites holds. It's the sabotage efforts where the
           most resources are being concentrated, which makes a lot of
           strategic and tactical sense for Israel and US in dealing with
           Iran at this stage

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: "Ben West" &lt;ben.west@stratfor.com&gt;
           To: "alerts" &lt;alerts@stratfor.com&gt;
           Sent: Sunday, November 13, 2011 2:40:06 PM
           Subject: S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in Iran

           Interesting comments by the defense minister.

           http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i28MvYyqR9sGxc2cZ4U1QlPPQFLA?docId=CNG.93c1b5af9b6cb71a17bf389563809eb2.a1
           Israel hails deadly blast in Iran

           (AFP) - 1 hour ago 

           JERUSALEM - Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak on Sunday hailed
           the deadly munitions blast at a base of Iran's elite Revolutionary
           Guards and hoped for more such incidents.

           "I don't know the extent of the explosion," he told military
           radio, asked about the incident. "But it would be desirable if
           they multiply."

           Iran said earlier that a senior general who pioneered an artillery
           and missile unit was among the 17 Guards reported killed in
           Saturday's blast at Bid Ganeh, near the town of Malard on the
           western outskirts of Tehran.

           Guards spokesman commander Ramezan Sharif said the blast, which
           Iran said was an accident, occurred as "ammunition was taken out
           of the depot and was being moved outside toward the appropriate
           site."

           Set up after the 1979 Islamic revolution to defend Iran, the
           Guards are in charge of the Islamic republic's missile programme,
           including Shahab-3 missiles with a range of 2,000 kilometres
           (1,200 miles) capable of hitting Israel.

           Saturday's blast came amid international condemnation of Iran
           since the release of a new UN nuclear watchdog report accusing
           Tehran of working towards the development of nuclear warheads to
           fit inside its medium-range missiles.

           Israeli officials have in past weeks warned Iran of the
           possibility of military strikes against its nuclear sites.

           Ben West
           Tactical Analyst
           STRATFOR
           512-744-4300
           ext. 4340

           --

           Chris Farnham
           Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
           Australia Mobile: 0423372241
           Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
           www.stratfor.com

           --
           Sean Noonan
           Tactical Analyst
           STRATFOR
           T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967
           www.STRATFOR.com

           --
           Sean Noonan
           Tactical Analyst
           STRATFOR
           T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967
           www.STRATFOR.com

           --
           Sean Noonan
           Tactical Analyst
           STRATFOR
           T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967
           www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 -
 Abe Selig
 Officer, Operations Center
 STRATFOR
 T: 512.279.9489 A| M: 512.574.3846
 www.STRATFOR.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   Australia Mobile: 0423372241
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   Australia Mobile: 0423372241
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-14 15:07:15</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1614316_re-alpha-s3-g3-israel-iran-barak-hails-munitions-blast-in.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1618981</id>
    <title>[TACTICAL] ChiCom Menace
</title>
    <description>On at least two occasions, hackers took over U.S. satellites and
targeted their command-and-control systems, a report by the U.S.-China
Economic and Security Review Commission revealed November 16. The
incidents involved two Earth observation satellites. While it may be
difficult to trace who hacked the satellites, U.S. officials
acknowledged the incidents had to come from a nation power. U.S.
officials cannot clearly trace the incidents to China, but the report
released by the Congressionally mandated commission noted Chinese
military writings made reference to attacks on ground-based space
communications facilities.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-23 17:48:29</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-20 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1618981_-tactical-chicom-menace-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>rbaker@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1619867</id>
    <title>Re: London Terror Surveillance (not for pub)
</title>
    <description>   Good question. I don't know. Will ask.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2010 19:21:20 -0500
   To: Secure List&lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: London Terror Surveillance (not for pub)
   granted we have a strong theory about the GCHQ/MI6 officer who was killed,
   but could this person or persons conducting surveillance have been
   involved?

   (though it really does look like the GCHQ guy locked himself in a bag and
   couldn't get out....)
   Fred Burton wrote:

     aQ terrorist surveillance has been positively identified outside of MI6
     Hqs in London.  MI5 is monitoring the terrorist suspect observed
     conducting the pre-operational surveillance.   
      
      

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-09-24 02:22:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-16 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1619867_re-london-terror-surveillance-not-for-pub-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1621954</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [OS] CHINA/CT/MIL - Chinese army develops drug to
 keep soldiers awake for up to 72 hours - paper
</title>
    <description>   thats how why the cartels are so hardcore

   On 10/17/11 8:24 AM, Jose Mora wrote:

     Last time I checked this was called "crack"

     On 10/17/11 8:15 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

    Chinese army develops drug to keep soldiers awake for up to 72 hours -   
    paper                                                                    
                                                                             
    Text of report headlined "PLA eyes 'night eagle' to make army of night   
    owls" published by Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post website  
    on 16 October                                                            
                                                                             
    The People's Liberation Army (PLA) [Chinese army] has opened up a new    
    front in the war against sleep.                                          
                                                                             
    It has developed a drug that can keep its soldiers awake and active for  
    as long as 72 hours, state television reported yesterday. But its        
    scientists didn't disclose its ingredients.                              
                                                                             
    The anti-sleep drug - called Night Eagle - was unveiled as one of 600    
    scientific achievements in an exhibition marking the 60th anniversary of 
    the Academy of Military Medical Sciences. The China Central Television   
    report did not give further details about the new drug, such as any hint 
    of its composition, how it works or its possible side effects.           
                                                                             
    Instead, quoting academy researcher Wang Lin, it said the drug was       
    developed specifically for the military to help soldiers cope with sleep 
    deprivation during missions.                                             
                                                                             
    "Our troops will have to stay awake for a long time while being able to  
    maintain cognitive abilities when they are deployed in search and rescue 
    operations after earthquakes, floods and other disasters and some        
    special military missions," Wang said.                                   
                                                                             
    Analysts said the Night Eagle drug appeared similar to                   
    sleep-suppressants widely used by armed forces of other countries.       
                                                                             
    "Although I have no information about the newly invented drug, it is not 
    at all surprising to see efforts to control sleep and develop anti-sleep 
    technology because of their apparent practical uses in combat            
    situations," said Professor Ni Lexiong, a Shanghai-based military        
    expert.                                                                  
                                                                             
    "Whether our troops can deprive themselves of sleep hours or even days   
    longer than their opponents could make a major difference in combat," Ni 
    said.                                                                    
                                                                             
    Ni believed the PLA would not reveal the drug's composition or           
    associated experimental data, but said it probably worked the same way   
    as other stimulants developed in the West. Any possible side effects of  
    the drug were also unknown.                                              
                                                                             
    One popular military stimulant in the West is modafinil, which was       
    originally developed to treat narcolepsy but is now used by US, French,  
    British and Indian armed forces as an alternative to amphetamines, as    
    well as by students to fight fatigue.                                    
                                                                             
    Modafinil has been a popular lifestyle drug for people who want to       
    chemically turn off sleep with fewer side effects.                       
                                                                             
    Experts also said anti-sleep drugs were becoming more important hi-tech  
    aids and the US military reportedly developed a formulation that kept    
    soldiers awake for seven straight days and nights in the early 2000s.    
                                                                             
    Source: South China Morning Post website, Hong Kong, in English 16 Oct   
    11                                                                       
                                                                             
    BBC Mon AS1 ASDel ma                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4300 ex 4112

 --
 JOSE MORA
 ADP
 STRATFOR

 --
 Anthony Sung
 ADP STRATFOR
</description>
    <date>2011-10-17 15:25:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1621954_re-eastasia-os-china-ct-mil-chinese-army-develops-drug-to.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anthony.sung@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1624947</id>
    <title>Re: Anonymous
</title>
    <description>   Well, my concern would be then stealing our credit card data from
   customers somehow. If that happens, it would bury us. Not a lot of people
   look at our website in hits.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2011 14:03:02 -0500 (CDT)
   To: scott stewart&lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;; Colby Martin&lt;colby.martin@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Anonymous
   I'm not sure anonymous would ever give a shit about us.  But if they did,
   they would be factors of ten more likely to carry out a DDOS attack on our
   website than the chinese or russians. 

   On 10/24/11 2:01 PM, scott stewart wrote:

 We will certainly think it through, but we shouldn't be any more scared of
 these guys when we are the Chicoms or Russians.




 On 10/24/11 2:56 PM, "burton@stratfor.com" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:


 We may want to think thru what we are doing so we don't get attacked.

 ------Original Message------
 From: Frank Ginac
 To: Fred Burton {6}
 Cc: Scott Stewart
 Subject: Re: Anonymous
 Sent: Oct 24, 2011 1:53 PM

 We have not deployed the new countermeasures at the co-lo. In short,
 we're no better prepared today than a month ago.

 ----- Original Message -----
 From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
 To: "Frank Ginac" &lt;frank.ginac@stratfor.com&gt;
 Cc: "Scott Stewart" &lt;Scott.Stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
 Sent: Monday, October 24, 2011 11:35:24 AM
 Subject: Anonymous

 Frank, Folks are putting together a piece of analysis on the Anonymous
 group from what I understand as it pertains to Mexico.  Are we able to
 defend ourselves from the IT space if we publish something they don't
 like?  Thanks, Fred


 Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T



   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 21:16:31</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1624947_re-anonymous-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>colby.martin@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1626844</id>
    <title>Fwd: [OS] GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat
</title>
    <description>   -------- Original Message --------

    Subject: [OS] GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat 
       Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 08:38:21 -0600                          
       From: Graham Smith &lt;graham.smith@stratfor.com&gt;                 
   Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                            
         To: os@stratfor.com                                          

    11/22/2010 11:38 AM
   Fears of a Mumbai Redux
   The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat

   http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,730377,00.html
   By Matthias Bartsch, Yassin Musharbash and Holger Stark

   Germany is currently in a state of high alert. Security officials are
   warning that they have concrete information pointing to a possible terror
   attack on the federal parliament building in Berlin, a massively popular
   tourist attraction. The days of Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere's
   reserved stances in dealing with such warnings appear to be over.

   The call came from abroad, and the man speaking hurriedly on the other end
   of the line sounded as if he feared for his life. He wanted out, he told
   the officers of the German Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) -- out of
   the terrorist scene. He wanted to come back to Germany, back to his
   family. Then he asked if German officials could help him.

   Right now, they're trying to do just that. The BKA is pursuing the case
   under the codename "Nova." The apparently remorseful man could be an
   important possible whistleblower from a dangerous region of the globe. In
   fact, he is also the most recent reason why German Interior Minister
   Thomas de Maiziere put the entire country in a state of fright on
   Wednesday.

   During a hastily called press conference that day, de Maiziere stated that
   Germany faced the threat of terrorist attacks that might be launched
   against the country at some point in November. As he put it, Germany is
   "presently dealing with a new situation."

   Just two days earlier, the source had called for the third time in just a
   short period and provided more information. He told officials that a small
   group of terrorists wanted to conduct a raid on the Reichstag building in
   Berlin, which houses the federal parliament, and that that was only one of
   the targets included in their attack plans.

   Germany on High Alert

   Since then, Germany has been in a state of high alert. The Reichstag is
   surrounded with barricades and its popular cupola tourist attraction
   temporarily closed to visitors. Police armed with submachine guns are
   patrolling major railway stations and airports. And vacations have been
   called off for officials at the country's security agencies. Wherever they
   have cause for doing so, the authorities are secretly monitoring
   communications, conducting surveillance operations and launching
   undercover investigations. At the moment, investigators seem to be at a
   loss; their modus operandi: "We'll prod the shrubs and see if we can flush
   out any birds."

   "There is cause for worry, but no cause for hysteria," de Maiziere assured
   his listeners. But while he has never been much of an agitator, his
   colleagues at the state level have described the situation in much more
   drastic terms. Uwe Schu:nemann, for example, who has been the interior
   minister of the northwestern state of Lower Saxony since 2003, stated that
   he had "never experienced a heightened security situation like this one."
   And Berlin Senator for the Interior Ehrhart Ko:rting, whose position is
   tantamount to that of a government minister in the city-state, has already
   even gone so far as to call on the inhabitants of the German capital city
   to report suspicious-looking individuals of Arab origin to the police. "If
   you suddenly see three somewhat strange-looking men who are new to your
   neighborhood, who hide their faces and who only speak Arabic," Ko:rting
   said, "you should report them to the authorities."

   Under heightened pressure, officials in Germany's 16 federal states are
   now checking to see when and where major events are scheduled to take
   place this coming week within their boundaries. And nothing suggested as a
   possible target is being discounted, no matter how unlikely. For example,
   officials in Rhineland-Palatinate warned the state's interior minister,
   Karl Peter Burch, that there was always a lot going on at IKEA stores on
   Saturdays.

   Serenity, Scaremongering and Strategy

   Since last week, German politicians at both the state and federal levels
   have once again had to figure out how they will handle themselves when
   making warnings about terrorist attacks. They have had to come up with a
   language that can simultaneously convey both an alert and a sense of calm.

   This is no easy task. For one thing, this isn't the first time this has
   happened. In September 2009, for example, right before federal elections
   were held, there were concrete threats that resulted in a heightened
   security situation. But, in the end, nothing happened. This time around,
   people are wondering whether they are on the precipice of an emergency or
   whether these are once again empty threats.

   Still, one thing is certain: For the time being, Germany has become a
   different country -- more nervous, more anxious, more agitated. And
   Germany's domestic security policies are being put to the test.

   When Interior Minister de Maiziere assumed his office in October 2009 in
   conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel's government, he aimed to cool down
   the heated sense of alarm regularly fanned out by his predecessors. What's
   more, the man who had served as Merkel's chief of staff in Chancellery
   until being moved to the role of interior minister in her new government,
   was given the task of nurturing a more relaxed relationship between her
   party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and its new coalition
   partner, the business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP). In particular,
   it was his job to not draw out the long-standing conflict over domestic
   security policies with the Justice Ministry, which has been led since the
   2009 election by Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, a member of the FDP.
   Indeed, Merkel feared that the quarrelsome FDP might try to capitalize on
   the issue to win over more voters, so she assigned de Maiziere to prevent
   that from happening.

   In fact, the plan was to repeat the same strategy that the CDU and its
   Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), had used when
   they were in the so-called "grand coalition" with the center-left Social
   Democratic Party, between 2005 and 2009. At the time, they made a point of
   undermining the SPD by championing what had traditionally been the latter
   party's issues.

   A Game-Changer

   But now the game plan has changed. This November will drastically alter de
   Maiziere's understanding of his role in office. If he tries to return
   things to their previous state of calm, he's going to have a very tough
   time. In fact, it's much more likely that he will be a completely
   different interior minister.

   For a while now, de Maiziere's softer stance has prompted opposition by
   politicians on the right involved with domestic security issues. But they
   are now calling louder than ever for a tougher course to be followed.
   Merkel is also adjusting to the new situation and is reportedly happy with
   the way de Maiziere handled himself last week. Likewise, no one seems to
   have voiced any criticism last Thursday evening during a meeting of the
   Coalition Committee, a regular gathering of the parties that are part of
   the government.

   The almost complete lack of protest has a lot to do with where the
   alarming information is coming from. In fact, information regarding the
   supposedly imminent attacks has come from two independent sources. Shortly
   before receiving the telephone call about the planned attacks, BKA
   officials had received a cable from their American counterparts at the
   FBI, America's federal police force, warning of possible attacks.

   Still, what truth is there in these "security-related" pieces of
   information coming from both domestic and foreign sources? And, given all
   the discrepancies in the warning messages, just how much do they deserve
   to be trusted? Indeed, even among security officials themselves, there is
   some doubt about how legitimate these statements are -- and about just how
   acute the danger threatening Germany really is.

   An Attack Modelled after Mumbai
   What the caller reported was undeniably alarming. According to him,
   al-Qaida and associated groups based in Pakistan were making joint
   preparations for an attack in Germany. One idea was to remotely detonate a
   bomb using a mobile phone. Another called for a small group of terrorists
   to storm the Reichstag with guns blazing, take hostages and end everything
   in one calamitous bloodbath. Indeed, BKA officials learned that the latter
   plan had been modeled on the storming of luxury hotels in Mumbai, the
   Indian capital, almost exactly two years ago, in a massacre that left 175
   people dead.

   According to the caller, the plan called for the terrorists to procure the
   submachine guns, automatic rifles, explosives and whatever else they would
   need to storm Germany's parliament building in the Balkans. He said that
   two men had already traveled to Germany six to eight weeks earlier, adding
   that one had the nom de guerre of "Abu Mohammed" and that the other one
   was a German of Turkish origin. Both apparently had roots in the Greater
   Berlin metropolitan area, were currently unemployed and living off of
   welfare payments and had immersed themselves in the anonymity provided by
   a major city -- until the time should come for their activation.

   Likewise, there were allegedly four other volunteers -- including a
   German, a Turk, a North African and another jihadist of unknown identity
   -- in the training camps run by al-Qaida and related groups waiting for
   the signal to travel to Germany. And, according to the telephone source,
   al-Qaida's plan was to attack in February or March.

   The only question now relates to just how credible the caller's statements
   are. He is an insider who joined up with armed groups several months ago
   and has earned a reputation as a fanatic fighter.

   But could it be that he is only trying to tell German officials the
   juiciest things possible in order to raise his own market value and
   thereby prompt them to extract him from the terror scene? Or could it be
   that al-Qaida is even planning a second spectacular coup like the one in
   December 2009, when the Americans allowed a supposedly top-level turncoat
   onto an American military base without any sort of pat-down, who went on
   to detonate his explosive vest and blow seven CIA officials to bits?

   A Strange Message

   A clear picture has yet to emerge. And one reason for this is also the
   fact that it was only two weeks ago that the FBI first decided to share
   information about another possible attack with German officials.

   In this case, even the way contact was made was unusual. Under normal
   circumstances, liaisons from the CIA station in Germany are the ones to
   communicate American warnings to their German counterparts. But, this time
   around, it was an apparently particularly anxious FBI that chose to
   directly notify the BKA.

   The FBI told the Germans about an obscure Indian group called "Saif," or
   "sword." Despite being a Shiite group, it had allegedly made a pact with
   al-Qaida, a Sunni organization, and sent five of its men to the Pakistani
   province of Waziristan for training. According to the FBI, two volunteers
   -- who were already equipped with visas allowing them to travel freely
   within the 25 European countries belonging to the Schengen zone -- were
   supposedly already en route to Germany and would enter the United Arab
   Emirates on Monday, Nov. 22. There, they would allegedly be provided with
   new travel documents before traveling on to Germany. One of the men is
   supposedly named "Khan," which is about as common in that part of the
   world as "Smith" is in English-speaking countries. And no firm conclusion
   had been made about their nationalities.

   The FBI agents even named the presumed masterminds behind the operation. A
   certain Mushtaq Altaf Bin-Khadri, who is in charge of finances and
   training for "Saif," allegedly dispatched the terrorist squad. But the FBI
   was not in a position to comment on the targets of the two men in Germany.

   One name came up time and again in the communique, and one that pricked
   the Germans' ears: Dawood Ibrahim. The 54-year-old arms trader is "India's
   most-wanted man." The US government has listed him as a "global terrorist"
   and persuaded the United Nations to place his name on a list of supporters
   of terror. Ibrahim is rumored to be the head of D-Company, a criminal
   syndicate named after himself, and is believed to be in charge of
   smuggling the suspected terrorists into Germany.

   Both the FBI and the BKA are attaching a lot of importance to the
   information in the FBI communique. But the intelligence services of the
   two countries -- the CIA in the United States and the BND and Office for
   the Protection of the Constitution in Germany, the country's foreign and
   domestic intelligence agencies, respectively -- point to internal
   contradictions as reasons for their skepticism. As they see it, for
   example, it is highly unlikely that a Shiite group would team up with
   Sunni terrorists, especially since a good part of al-Qaida propaganda
   vilifies Shiites. Other reasons for doubt include the facts that none of
   the intelligence agencies was previously familiar with an organization
   called "Saif," that there have been no previously recorded threats against
   Germany by Indian extremists, and that the whole scenario seems rather
   implausible.

   On the other hand, the FBI information is uncommonly concrete. In addition
   to the names of the suspects, it also provides information about the exact
   day on which they are supposed to arrive in the United Arab Emirates.
   Moreover, Ibrahim is believed to be one of the men behind the terror
   attacks in Mumbai. If he really is involved, that alone would be reason
   enough for worry.

   Abnormal Circumstances

   Under normal circumstances, a message of this kind from the United States
   would no doubt be cause for serious-minded scrutiny, but it would not be a
   cause for alarm. For example, the BKA would go through all recent visa
   applications, and federal police officers would take a closer look at all
   the people entering Germany from Arab states. And the intelligence
   services would make the rounds to see if any of its partners had any
   helpful information on the matter.

   Indeed, under normal circumstances, there are always a lot of these
   communiques, most of which turn out to be false alarms. But these are no
   normal circumstances. Germany is in a state of emergency. Other countries,
   such as the United States, employ a system of official warning levels
   based on color codes that change -- from yellow to orange, for example --
   when the danger level is thought to increase. But, in Germany, the
   interior minister is the barometer: He consults with experts -- and then
   it is he who must call the shots.

   For the minister, a situation like this presents a dilemma. If he remains
   silent and something happens, he's a failure. If he makes loud warning and
   nothing happens, he's just a rabble-rouser trying to push through
   controversial tougher security laws. And, of course, the public never
   thanks you if everyday life continues in a normal, peaceful way.

   Absolute Security Remains a Pipe Dream

   When de Maiziere became Germany's interior minister, he had planned to
   lead the ministry in a level-headed way. For example, he prefers to use
   phrases such as "internal calm" rather than "internal security." And it
   was only six weeks ago that he uttered the sentence: "There's no cause for
   alarm." But, since then, the chorus of warning voices has only ballooned
   in size.

   This change in course is the combined result of everything that happened
   beforehand. It might very well turn out that the alleged Indian terror
   squad stays home and that the raid on the Reichstag never happens. But
   what will remain is a well-founded supposition that there is a critical
   mass of terrorists in the border region between Afghanistan and Pakistan
   that is thinking about launching attacks in Europe -- and certainly in
   Germany, as well.

   Raw Nerves

   Given such circumstances, there is a major sense of alarm among German
   officials. Last Thursday, just a day after de Maiziere's shocking press
   conference, the BKA issued a press release "in connection with the current
   high-risk situation." It reported that a piece of suspicious luggage had
   been discovered a day earlier in Windhoek, the capital of Namibia, before
   being loaded onto a plane bound for Germany. The laptop bag contained
   batteries, wires, a detonator and a clock -- in other words, all the
   ingredients you need for a potential airborne catastrophe.

   It sounded as if another terror plot had been foiled. Had there been a
   plan to blow up Air Berlin Flight 7377 en route to Munich? And had the
   authorities, yet again, discovered an explosive device at the last minute?
   In the end, all the worry was unfounded. As it turned out, the piece of
   luggage was a test device built by a company that designs "real test"
   suitcases to be used to test security measures. It remains unclear who
   checked the bag in. But the fact that the BKA was so quick to go into
   alarm mode -- and publicly so -- has been a communications debacle.

   Of course, these days, nobody wants to be the one that wasn't sufficiently
   circumspect, the one who took too long to speak up. No one wants a replay
   of situations like the one from the beginning of November, when de
   Maiziere didn't know for hours whether the package that had arrived at the
   Chancellery contained actual explosives or was just a false alarm. Now,
   the threshold for sounding the alarm is already much lower.

   Bonded by Fear

   Of course, you can never be too sure. Over the last 12 months, a series of
   attacks concocted in the Afghan-Pakistani border region have been foiled
   in the West. For example, in May, a car bomb set in New York's Times
   Square by a man with ties to the Pakistani Taliban failed to properly
   detonate. In Copenhagen, al-Qaida had made plans to storm the offices of
   the Jyllands-Posten newspaper as revenge for its 2005 publishing of
   caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad. In October 2009, David Headley, an
   American citizen with Pakistani roots, was arrested after having already
   visited the newspaper's offices in order to scout them out before the
   planned attack. Other targets reportedly included the subway systems of
   New York City and Washington.

   On the other hand, absolute security is a pipe dream. For example, British
   authorities had even conducted rehearsals for how to respond to possible
   attacks. But, even so, when attacks claiming 56 lives (including those of
   four attackers) did strike London, on July 7, 2005, they were unable to
   prevent them. Likewise, US intelligence services had warned India a number
   of times that terrorists were planning attacks in Mumbai.

   The new situation in Germany has at least had one positive side effect:
   For the time being, the traditionally quarrelsome interior ministers from
   both the state and the federal levels have refrained from their usual
   bickering. Following informal talks held last Thursday in Hamburg,
   Minister Bruch of Rhineland-Palatinate noted that he had "never
   experienced such harmony within this group" that has apparently been
   bonded together by their shared fear.

   Translated from the German by Josh Ward
</description>
    <date>2010-11-22 15:55:47</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1626844_fwd-os-germany-ct-the-story-behind-germany-s-terror-threat-.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1627123</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2010-11-22 17:34:28</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1627123_re-discussion-germany-ct-the-story-behind-germany-s-terror.html</permalink>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1627572</id>
    <title>Re: FOR EDIT- Assange Arrest
</title>
    <description>   got it

   On 12/7/2010 9:15 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     *thanks to all for the very helpful comments. 

     Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks Survival

     Display: the Douchiest picture of Assange possible.  

      

     Summary:

     WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange was arrested in Britain December 7,
     following an Interpol Red Notice based on a Swedish warrant.  WikiLeaks
     is a new organization with one leader that has not institutionalized.
      Assange's arrest will test its ability to maintain itself as an
     institution, but the concept of leaking documents on the internet will
     continue.  

      

     Analysis:

     London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and
     public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7 when he turned
     himself in.  He is due to appear in a court in Westminster soon to face
     a hearing over charges against him in Sweden, and possible extradition.
      There is considerable interest in what this can mean for his
     organization.  While it's possible that Assange's arrest could disrupt
     the long-term viability of WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release of
     cables in the short-term and will not stop similar future leaks via the
     internet.

      

     Leadership can be extremely important in non-governmental organizations
     that have not institutionalized.  From &lt;terrorist groups&gt; [LINK:
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090923_death_top_indonesian_militant]
     to charities, new organizations often ebb and flow along with their
     founders.  WikiLeaks organized a new method for an old practice- leaking
     confidential government information in an attempt to influence politics.

      

     Assange created WikiLeaks with himself as the only public face-- he
     leads supporters, drives donations, gives interviews and faces
     criticism. There have been reports of internal dissent and tensions, and
     in one interview with CNN, discussion of the organizations internal
     politics seemed to touch a nerve with Assange.  If Assange were to face
     charges in Sweden for sexual assault or new charges in the UK or US and
     was found guilty, WikiLeaks would still need someone to operate it.
      Assange may have someone waiting in the wings, but that is not evident.

      

     WikiLeaks has also suffered logistically.  As national governments put
     pressure on its infrastructure, its websites have been shut down and
     most importantly a major source of funding, PayPal, has closed
     WikiLeaks' account (Mastercard has also banned payments from its card to
     WikiLeaks). It is also not clear whether the events of the last few
     months will encourage or deter other potential leakers from approaching
     Wikileaks as opposed to other organizations (especially if they dislike
     or disagree with Assange.  Moreover, this new set of documents have not
     worked out like Assange expected- the U.S. public is not angry at the
     State Department, but many are angry at Assange and his organization.
     [LINK:
     http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical_diary/20101206_geopolitics_continue_despite_wikileaks]

     Immediately following Assange's arrest, WikiLeaks spokesperson Kristinn
     Hrafnsson said that it would not stop the group's operations. Indeed,
     whether Assange remains behind bars or not, it most likely will not stop
     the continued leaks of this large batch of US State Department cables.
      It also will not shut down WikiLeaks, which still maintains its website
     (albeit currently on a Swiss server, after its initial site's were
     deactivated) and the ability to collect information from leakers.  So in
     the short-term, WikiLeaks will continue.  The question remains if
     Assange created a truly sustainable institution-- one where leaders are
     replaceable, members can adapt to changing circumstance, and
     representatives can aid and inspire new leakers.  Will leakers continue
     to go to the, or choose other organizations?

      

     If Assange is extradited to Sweden and tried of one count of unlawful
     coercion, two counts of sexual molestation and one count of rape, the
     question is how much WikiLeaks image will be damaged.  He may try to use
     prison time- especially before trial- to develop his image as a martyr,
     but this can always backfire.  If WikiLeaks, however, is not tied to his
     image, it will be much more sustainable as an organization.  

      

     Western governments also fear whatever is contained in his "insurance"
     file, for which he threatens to release an encryption key if something
     happens to him.  The file was released across the internet and has been
     downloaded by countless number of people.  What it contains is still
     secret, but WikiLeaks may have threatened the US government and others
     with clues to its contents.  WikiLeaks has likely already released its
     most damaging documents in an attempt to get public attention.  This new
     file then probably does not contain higher-level secret information, but
     instead may be full of names.  Those names being sources who will be at
     risk and those of diplomats, military or intelligence officers who could
     lose their jobs or even lives.  These people who could be adversely
     affected by the release of the insurance file also pose another
     conundrum for wikileaks. Exposing them and impacting them in a
     vindictive manner could further tarnish Assange and Wikileaks in the
     eyes of the international public, to include potential financial and
     information contributors.  

      

     WikiLeaks is now facing a conundrum that all new organizations do--the
     ability to maintain and transition leadership through adverse
     circumstances.  Maybe Assange will be released quickly-- STRATFOR cannot
     speak to the veracity of the charges against him-- but if he isn't,
     WikiLeaks survival is brought into question.  But even if WikiLeaks
     disappears, the organizational concept will still continue, and leaks
     along with it.  WikiLeaks has only demonstrated the ability new
     technology has created to transfer such large quantities of documents,
     and there is no reason other organizations will not make use of the same
     technology.  

      

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 16:18:35</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1627572_re-for-edit-assange-arrest-.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>mike.marchio@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1627842</id>
    <title>Re: [OS] UK/US/AUSTRALIA/CT- WikiLeaks back online, Assange close
 to arrest
</title>
    <description>   yes, most likely would not stop these.  but it could disrupt whatever
   might be next. 

   Also all this trouble with internet hosting could serve to slow down this
   set of leaks.  And maybe a combination of wikileaks arrest and server
   shutdowns could stop it. 
   On 12/3/10 9:20 AM, Ben West wrote:

     If Assange is running the show and his staff isn't as confident as he
     is, then arresting him now could very well stop the flow of cables. But
     all it takes is one person to keep it going - or just dump them all at
     once if it gets too dicey, and these files have been very widely
     distributed so far. I can't imagine anyone reclaiming all the documents
     now.

     On 12/3/2010 8:54 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

       yeah also remember there was an article by nytimes i think that alot
       of people on his staff were uncomfortable with the way things were
       playing out, so without him there they may loose nerve or come to
       their better senses

       On 12/3/10 8:48 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         Yes, like Fred's source pointed out--arrest and trial would just be
         a political circus.  It would probably not disrupt wikileaks.  BUT,
         occasonally a leader makes an organization, and maybe no one as
         capable will be willing to fill his shoes.  Or at least, won't be
         able to get as much pubilicity for wikileaks.  As you also said, it
         could tarnish both Assange's and Wikileaks' repution.  That coul
         dserve to discredit and undermine the group.  Maybe people would be
         less inclined to leak to it, or the public would be less inclined to
         pay attention--or more importantly support wikileaks financially. 
         Though I admit the chance of this causing the public to pay less
         attention is minimal, and in fact would probably increase attention
         on the guy. 

         (though personally, getting a rapist off the street is getting a
         rapist off the street.  Also, his mom owns a puppet theater...)

         On 12/3/10 8:38 AM, Ben West wrote:

           What would the overall significance of his arrest be? It's likely
           that the files are backed up elsewhere and that someone else could
           give the go-ahead for releasing them (that could very well already
           be the case) and if his back-ups are anything like Assange, they
           would welcome the publicity that would come to them by filling his
           shoes.

           If the British got custody of him, they could conduct searches or
           evidence that would support rape charges and, if they happened to
           find material regarding the leaks, that could lead to new charges.
           But this has been coming for a while, and if Assange was smart, he
           would have turned over any really sensitive stuff by now, which
           would decrease the likelihood of police finding anything juicy.

           Seems to me that all this really does is tarnish his reputation
           and make him look like scum. It provides some public distraction
           from all the leaked documents, but doesn't undermine their impact
           - just undermines the character of the person who facilitated the
           leaks.

           any other thoughts?

           On 12/3/2010 7:40 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

             I may have sent this out before- Assange walking out of a CNN
             interview.

             http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lisa9XTRLb4

             just shows how far his head is up his ass. 
             On 12/3/10 7:32 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

               looks like Assange is in the UK and they might actually roll
               on him.

               On 12/3/10 7:31 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                 *OG source
                 Net closes on Assange: arrest by British police expected in
                 days
                 By Mark Hughes and Jerome Taylor
                 Friday, 3 December 2010
                 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/net-closes-on-assange-arrest-by-british-police-expected-in-days-2149805.html

                 Julian Assange, the WikiLeaks founder, is expected to be
                 arrested in the coming days after Swedish prosecutors filed
                 a new warrant with British authorities.

                 The Independent revealed yesterday that a procedural error
                 with the European Arrest Warrant had delayed the arrest of
                 the 39-year-old Australian, who is wanted in Sweden over
                 sexual allegations but has been in England since October.

                 Police in Gothenburg claim they have now submitted a fresh
                 warrant to the Serious Organised Crime Agency. Soca is
                 expected to instruct Scotland Yard to arrest Mr Assange and
                 have him appear before an extradition hearing - although as
                 of last night the Metropolitan Police had yet to receive the
                 warrant.

                 Police sources have previously said that they received a
                 letter from Mr Assange's UK-based lawyer, Mark Stephens,
                 containing information about how to contact Mr Assange
                 should they need to.

                 Details of the new arrest warrant came as a last-ditch
                 attempt to have the allegations against Mr Assange dropped
                 failed. Sweden's highest court upheld the arrest order and
                 refused to let him appeal against a lower court's ruling.

                 Last night, Mr Assange's family spoke of their fears for his
                 safety after increasingly shrill statements from American
                 commentators who have called for his assassination. His
                 mother, Christine Assange, said "the forces that he's
                 challenging are too big".

                 The arrest warrant filed with Soca states that he was wanted
                 on suspicion of rape, sexual molestation and unlawful
                 coercion. But Soca requested a new warrant. A spokeswoman
                 for the Swedish National Police Board told the BBC that the
                 original one had been refused because it listed only the
                 maximum penalty for the most serious crime alleged, rather
                 than for all of the crimes.

                 When the arrest is made, Mr Assange will be taken before an
                 extradition hearing at Westminster magistrates' court. If he
                 refuses to be extradited, a judge will preside over an
                 extradition hearing and will rule whether he should be sent
                 to Sweden or discharged.

                 Last night, Mr Stephens said he would challenge any arrest
                 in British courts. "The process in this case has been so
                 utterly irregular that the chances of a valid arrest warrant
                 being submitted to me are very small," he said. Mr Stephens
                 has accused Swedish prosecutors of launching a witch-hunt
                 against his client, who strongly denies the rape allegations
                 and says he is being smeared because of the exposes
                 published by his website.

                 He has maintained that Swedish prosecutors have yet to
                 provide any evidence against Mr Assange and have ignored his
                 requests to meet with them. He also expressed concerns at
                 the way the UK and Swedish authorities were handling the
                 case.

                 "I feel like I am sitting in the middle of a surreal Swedish
                 fairytale," he said. "The trolls keep threatening to come on
                 and keep making noises off stage. But at the moment, no
                 appearance from them."

                 In an interview with an Australian newspaper, Mr Assange's
                 mother defended her son and lambasted hawks in the US who
                 have called for his death.

                 Ms Assange, who runs a puppet theatre in Noosa, a Queensland
                 beach resort, defended her son's decision to publish
                 thousands of classified US documents on the website. "He
                 sees what he's doing as doing a good thing in the world -
                 fighting baddies, if you like," she told Queensland's
                 Courier-Mail.

                 Ms Assange - who does not even own a computer - described
                 her son as a hero of the internet. But she added that she
                 feared he had "gotten too smart for himself", saying: "I'm
                 concerned it's gotten too big and the forces that he's
                 challenging are too big." She did not want him "hunted down
                 and jailed".

                 On 12/3/10 7:24 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                   WikiLeaks back online, Assange close to arrest

                   Updated 2 hours 45 minutes ago
                   http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/12/03/3084384.htm

                   The WikiLeaks website is back online with a new Swiss
                   address after its previous domain name was killed.

                   The whistleblower website's original domain host,
                   EveryDNS.net, says it terminated its services because
                   Wikileaks had been coming under "massive" cyber attacks.

                   The new address - wikileaks.ch - was put online six hours
                   after the original site wikileaks.org was killed.

                   An internet trace of the new domain name suggests that the
                   site itself is still hosted in Sweden and in France.

                   Web users accessing the wikileaks.ch address are directed
                   to a page under the URL http://213.251.145.96/ which gives
                   them access to the former site, including a massive trove
                   of leaked US diplomatic traffic.

                   The WikiLeaks website released more than 250,000 secret US
                   diplomatic cables this week, which has left governments
                   around the world scrambling to deal with the fallout.

                   Meanwhile, British media reports Scotland Yard could
                   arrest the site's founder Julian Assange within days.

                   Prosecutors in Sweden want to question Mr Assange over
                   alleged sex crimes involving two women during a visit to
                   Stockholm in August.

                   Mr Assange, who was born in Australia, has not been
                   charged and he denies the allegations.

                   He reportedly avoided arrest this week because Swedish
                   authorities had filled out an Interpol red notice
                   incorrectly.

                   Britain's Independent newspaper reports that police know
                   Mr Assange's whereabouts in England and are expected to
                   arrest him in the coming days.

                   Mr Assange's Stockholm-based lawyer Bjoern Hurtig says he
                   will fight his client's extradition to Sweden in the event
                   of his arrest.

                   "Together with my British colleague Mark Stephens and
                   international experts, we will fight the extradition
                   warrants," he said.

                   A WikiLeaks spokesman says Mr Assange has to remain out of
                   the public eye because he is facing assassination threats
                   following the whistleblowing website's publication of the
                   secret cables.

                   Several US senators have also called for him to be charged
                   with espionage.

                   Senator Dianne Feinstein says the leak is a serious breach
                   of national security and action must be taken.

                   "We have reviewed the espionage statutes and we believe it
                   qualifies," she said.

                   "That this, allowed to be carried out, incapacitates this
                   nation to carry out business."
                   --

                   Sean Noonan

                   Tactical Analyst

                   Office: +1 512-279-9479

                   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

                   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

                   www.stratfor.com

                 --

                 Sean Noonan

                 Tactical Analyst

                 Office: +1 512-279-9479

                 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

                 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

                 www.stratfor.com

               --

               Sean Noonan

               Tactical Analyst

               Office: +1 512-279-9479

               Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

               Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

               www.stratfor.com

             --

             Sean Noonan

             Tactical Analyst

             Office: +1 512-279-9479

             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

             www.stratfor.com

 --
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com


 --
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-03 16:23:51</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1627842_re-os-uk-us-australia-ct-wikileaks-back-online-assange-close.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1628042</id>
    <title>Re: WATCH ITEM- WikiLeaks 'Insurance File'
</title>
    <description>   Yes.=A0 The problem is at least one other person has it too.=A0

   On 12/7/10 3:26 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 Founder needs to be water boarded until he gives us th=
 e code.

 scott stewart wrote:

 Remember what I said this morning about blow-back to them if they
 release names of innocent people.

 *From:* analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
 [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] *On Behalf Of *Sean Noonan
 *Sent:* Tuesday, December 07, 2010 3:16 PM
 *To:* Analyst List
 *Cc:* watchofficer
 *Subject:* Re: WATCH ITEM- WikiLeaks 'Insurance File'

 Though actually now I'm seeing a lot of rhetoric that the events so
 far have not reached the level for Wikileaks to release this file. Was
 it a bluff?

 LONDON -- Even though its founder is under arrest, WikiLeaks says it
 has no plans, for now, to release the code that would reveal some of
 its most important documents.

 The code is an "insurance
 &lt;http://www.foxnews.com=
 /world/2010/12/07/wikileaks-plans-release-insurance-file/&gt;"
 file that WikiLeaks says has been given to some of its supporters in
 case of an emergency. It's a key to a heavily encrypted version of the
 documents.

 A spokesman says it will only be used if "grave matters" take place
 involving WikiLeaks staff. But he didn't elaborate on what those might be.
 Read more:
 http://www.f=
 oxnews.com/world/2010/12/07/wikileaks-plans-release-insurance-file/#ixzz17S=
 VW0dZn

 Assange:
 "The Cable Gate archive has been spread, along with significant
 material from the US and other countries to over 100,000 people in
 encrypted form," he said in the online forum. "If something happens to
 us, the key parts will be released automatically. Further, the Cable
 Gate archives is in the hands of multiple news organizations.=94
 http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2010/1207/Will-WikiLeaks-Jul=
 ian-Assange-now-arrested-take-the-nuclear-option


 On 12/7/10 1:49 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

 Assange was denied bail this morning. They previously threatened to
 release the insurance file if their site was shut down or if Assange
 was arrested/"persecuted." Now both have happened.

 Please watch for them to release it.

 --=20

 Sean Noonan

 Tactical Analyst

 Office: +1 512-279-9479

 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

 www.=
 stratfor.com &lt;http://www.stratfor.com&gt;

 --=20

 Sean Noonan

 Tactical Analyst

 Office: +1 512-279-9479

 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

 www.=
 stratfor.com &lt;http://www.stratfor.com&gt;


   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 22:32:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1628042_re-watch-item-wikileaks-insurance-file-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1628325</id>
    <title>interview request - John Batchelor Show
</title>
    <description>   Date: TUESDAY 7

   Time:    415   PM Eastern Time

   recorded for radio

   Re

   THE ASSANGE ARREST AND WIKILEAKS' SURVIVAL

   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: John Batchelor Show                    
      Date: Tue, 7 Dec 2010 14:06:07 -0500         
      From: John Batchelor &lt;tippaine@gmail.com&gt;    
        To: Kyle Rhodes &lt;kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com&gt; 

   Hi
   ask to interview
   analyst
   Date: TUESDAY 7
   Time:    415   PM Eastern Time
   Re
   THE ASSANGE ARREST AND WIKILEAKS' SURVIVAL

   Summary
   WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange surrendered to authorities in Britain on
   Dec. 7, following an Interpol Red Notice based on a Swedish arrest
   warrant. WikiLeaks is a relatively young organization with one leader and
   has not institutionalized a set of practices and protocols that guarantee
   its survival even if the personnel changes. Assange's arrest will test the
   organization's ability to maintain itself, but the use of the Internet to
   leak documents will continue.

   Analysis
   need two phone numbers, landline and mobile, and email contact as well.
   thanks
   John Batchelor
   Studio backup 212 268 5730
   www.JohnBatchelorShow.com
   WABC Radio Network
   2 Penn Plaza
   NYC 10021
   --
   Thank you,
   John
   John Batchelor Show
   www.JohnBatchelorShow.com
   WABC Radio Network
   212-613-3800
   2 Penn Plaza
   NY, NY 10017
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 20:37:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1628325_interview-request-john-batchelor-show-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1629270</id>
    <title>Re: More on Cohen
</title>
    <description>   i think he has some interest in africa.=C2=A0 don't get some shit in your
   twatter from him.....

   info page:

   http://www.cfr.org/experts/iran-technology-and-for=
   eign-policy-terrorism/jared-cohen/b16451

   On 2/9/11 2:40 PM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     What?! I'm in love. How the hell does he know swahili

     On 2011 Feb 9, at 13:19, "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

       Hahahaha. mainly he just talks aboput his trips to egypt and nigeria.

       Bayless, you could be homies with this guy. He is also fluent in
       swahili

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stra= tfor.com&gt;
       Date: Wed, 9 Feb 2011 12:13:27 -0600 (CST)
       To: 'Sean Noonan'&lt;sean.noonan@stratfor= .com&gt;; 'Bayless
       Parsley'&lt;bayless.parsley@= stratfor.com&gt;
       Subject: RE: More on Cohen

       That sounds borderline pornographic.

       &lt;o:= p&gt;=C2=A0

       &lt;o:= p&gt;=C2=A0

       From: Sean Noonan [mailto:sean.noonan@stratfor.com]
       Sent: Wednesday, February 09, 2011 1:08 PM
       To: Bayless Parsley; TACTICAL
       Subject: Re: More on Cohen

       =C2=A0

       tons of shit on his twatter

       http://twitter.com/j= aredcohen

       On 2/9/11 12:06 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       yes.

       On 2/9/11 12:05 PM, Anya Alfano wrote:

 Huffington Post is saying that Cohen was the State Dept gu=
 y responsible

 for delaying the scheduled maintenance on Twitter so the I=
 ranian

 revolution could keep going.=C2=A0 Also a mention of his A=
 YM involvement.

 =C2=A0

 Huff Post bio of Cohen here --

 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jared-cohen&lt;/o:=
 p&gt;

 =C2=A0

 On 2/9/11 12:56 PM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

 Also, please make sure to continue cc'ing me on emails t=
 o tactical.

 Thx again.

 =C2=A0

 Btw The other parsley guy is my new bff. He looks like t=
 he comic

 bookstore owner from The Simpsons.

 =C2=A0

 On 2011 Feb 9, at 11:52, Anya Alfano &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.c=
 om&gt; wrote:

 =C2=A0

 Check out this article/interview with FP -- this Cohen=
  fellow just

 turned 29 in November.=C2=A0 Definitely a different so=
 rt of background -- he

 was a Rhodes scholar, spent time in Iran, hung out in =
 Iraq during the

 war, etc.

 =C2=A0

 http://www.foreignpolicy.com/ar=
 ticles/2010/09/07/jared_cohen

       =C2=A0

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

       =C2=A0

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-02-09 21:42:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-14 22:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1629270_re-more-on-cohen-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bayless.parsley@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1630947</id>
    <title>Re: Profile of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange
</title>
    <description>   yeah.  he gave a great demonstration of that in this interview:
   http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/2010/10/24/2010-10-24_wikileaks_julian_assange_walks_out_of_cnn_interview_when_asked_about_rape_charge.html

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Sunday, October 24, 2010 1:15:22 PM
   Subject: RE: Profile of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange

   He is a delusional nut.

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Sean Noonan
   Sent: Sunday, October 24, 2010 11:56 AM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: Profile of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange

    

   his ego will be his downfall

   On 10/24/10 9:51 AM, Nate Hughes wrote:

   October 23, 2010
   WikiLeaks Founder on the Run, Trailed by Notoriety
   By JOHN F. BURNS and RAVI SOMAIYA
   LONDON a** Julian Assange moves like a hunted man. In a noisy Ethiopian
   restaurant in Londona**s rundown Paddington district, he pitches his voice
   barely above a whisper to foil the Western intelligence agencies he fears.

   He demands that his dwindling number of loyalists use expensive encrypted
   cellphones and swaps his own as other men change shirts. He checks into
   hotels under false names, dyes his hair, sleeps on sofas and floors, and
   uses cash instead of credit cards, often borrowed from friends.

   a**By being determined to be on this path, and not to compromise, Ia**ve
   wound up in an extraordinary situation,a** Mr. Assange said over lunch
   last Sunday, when he arrived sporting a woolen beanie and a wispy stubble
   and trailing a youthful entourage that included a filmmaker assigned to
   document any unpleasant surprises.

   In his remarkable journey to notoriety, Mr. Assange, founder of the
   WikiLeaks whistle-blowersa** Web site, sees the next few weeks as his most
   hazardous. Now he is making his most brazen disclosure yet: 391,832 secret
   documents on the Iraqi war. He held a news conference in London on
   Saturday, saying that the release a**constituted the most comprehensive
   and detailed account of any war ever to have entered the public record.a**

   Twelve weeks ago, he posted on his organizationa**s Web site some 77,000
   classified Pentagon documents on the Afghan conflict.

   Much has changed since 2006, when Mr. Assange, a 39-year-old Australian,
   used years of computer hacking and what friends call a near genius I.Q. to
   establish WikiLeaks, redefining whistle-blowing by gathering secrets in
   bulk, storing them beyond the reach of governments and others determined
   to retrieve them, then releasing them instantly, and globally.

   Now it is not just governments that denounce him: some of his own comrades
   are abandoning him for what they see as erratic and imperious behavior,
   and a nearly delusional grandeur unmatched by an awareness that the
   digital secrets he reveals can have a price in flesh and blood.

   Several WikiLeaks colleagues say he alone decided to release the Afghan
   documents without removing the names of Afghan intelligence sources for
   NATO troops. a**We were very, very upset with that, and with the way he
   spoke about it afterwards,a** said Birgitta Jonsdottir, a core WikiLeaks
   volunteer and a member of Icelanda**s Parliament. a**If he could just
   focus on the important things he does, it would be better.a**

   He is also being investigated in connection with accusations of rape and
   molestation involving two Swedish women. Mr. Assange has denied the
   allegations, saying the relations were consensual. But prosecutors in
   Sweden have yet to formally approve charges or dismiss the case eight
   weeks after the complaints against Mr. Assange were filed, damaging his
   quest for a secure base for himself and WikiLeaks. Though he characterizes
   the claims as a**a smear campaign,a** the scandal has compounded the
   pressures of his cloaked life.

   a**When it comes to the point where you occasionally look forward to being
   in prison on the basis that you might be able to spend a day reading a
   book, the realization dawns that perhaps the situation has become a little
   more stressful than you would like,a** he said over the London lunch.

   Exposing Secrets

   Mr. Assange has come a long way from an unsettled childhood in Australia
   as a self-acknowledged social misfit who narrowly avoided prison after
   being convicted on 25 charges of computer hacking in 1995. History is
   punctuated by spies, defectors and others who revealed the most
   inflammatory secrets of their age. Mr. Assange has become that figure for
   the Internet era, with as yet unreckoned consequences for himself and for
   the keepers of the worlda**s secrets.

   a**Ia**ve been waiting 40 years for someone to disclose information on a
   scale that might really make a difference,a** said Daniel Ellsberg, who
   exposed a 1,000-page secret study of the Vietnam War in 1971 that became
   known as the Pentagon Papers.

   Mr. Ellsberg said he saw kindred spirits in Mr. Assange and Pfc. Bradley
   Manning, the 22-year-old former Army intelligence operative under
   detention in Quantico, Va., suspected of leaking the Iraq and Afghan
   documents.

   a**They were willing to go to prison for life, or be executed, to put out
   this information,a** Mr. Ellsberg said.

   Underlying Mr. Assangea**s anxieties is deep uncertainty about what the
   United States and its allies may do next. Pentagon and Justice department
   officials have said they are weighing his actions under the 1917 Espionage
   Act. They have demanded that Mr. Assange a**returna** all government
   documents in his possession, undertake not to publish any new ones and not
   a**solicita** further American materials.

   Mr. Assange has responded by going on the run, but has found no refuge.
   Amid the Afghan documents controversy, he flew to Sweden, seeking a
   residence permit and protection under that countrya**s broad press
   freedoms. His initial welcome was euphoric.

   a**They called me the James Bond of journalism,a** he recalled wryly.
   a**It got me a lot of fans, and some of them ended up causing me a bit of
   trouble.a**

   Within days, his liaisons with two Swedish women led to an arrest warrant
   on charges of rape and molestation. Karin Rosander, a spokesperson for the
   prosecutor, said last week that the police were continuing to investigate.

   In late September, he left Stockholm for Berlin. A bag he checked on the
   almost empty flight disappeared, with three encrypted laptops. It has not
   resurfaced; Mr. Assange suspects it was intercepted. From Germany, he
   traveled to London, wary at being detained on arrival. Under British law,
   his Australian passport entitles him to remain for six months. Iceland,
   another country with generous press freedoms and a strong WikiLeaks
   following, has also lost its appeal, with Mr. Assange concluding that its
   government, like Britaina**s, is too easily influenced by Washington. In
   his native Australia, ministers have signaled their willingness to
   cooperate with the United States if it opens a prosecution. Mr. Assange
   said a senior Australian official told him, a**You play outside the rules,
   and you will be dealt with outside the rules.a**

   He faces attack from within, too.

   After the Sweden scandal, strains within WikiLeaks reached a breaking
   point, with some of Mr. Assangea**s closest collaborators publicly
   defecting. The New York Times spoke with dozens of people who have worked
   with and supported him in Iceland, Sweden, Germany, Britain and the United
   States. What emerged was a picture of the founder of WikiLeaks as its
   prime innovator and charismatic force but as someone whose growing
   celebrity has been matched by an increasingly dictatorial, eccentric and
   capricious style.

   Internal Turmoil

   Effectively, as Mr. Assange pursues his fugitivea**s life, his leadership
   is enforced over the Internet. Even remotely, his style is imperious. In
   an online exchange with one volunteer, a transcript of which was obtained
   by The Times, he warned that WikiLeaks would disintegrate without him.
   a**Wea**ve been in a Unity or Death situation for a few months now,a** he
   said.

   When Herbert Snorrason, a 25-year-old political activist in Iceland,
   questioned Mr. Assangea**s judgment over a number of issues in an online
   exchange last month, Mr. Assange was uncompromising. a**I dona**t like
   your tone,a** he said, according to a transcript. a**If it continues,
   youa**re out.a**

   Mr. Assange cast himself as indispensable. a**I am the heart and soul of
   this organization, its founder, philosopher, spokesperson, original coder,
   organizer, financier, and all the rest,a** he said. a**If you have a
   problem with me,a** he told Mr. Snorrason, using an expletive, he should
   quit.

   In an interview about the exchange, Mr. Snorrasona**s conclusion was
   stark. a**He is not in his right mind,a** he said. In London, Mr. Assange
   was dismissive of all those who have criticized him. a**These are not
   consequential people,a** he said.

   a**About a dozena** disillusioned volunteers have left recently, said
   Smari McCarthy, an Icelandic volunteer who has distanced himself in the
   recent turmoil. In late summer, Mr. Assange suspended Daniel
   Domscheit-Berg, a German who had been the WikiLeaks spokesman under the
   pseudonym Daniel Schmitt, accusing him of unspecified a**bad behavior.a**
   Many more activists, Mr. McCarthy said, are likely to follow.

   Mr. Assange denied that any important volunteers had quit, apart from Mr.
   Domscheit-Berg. But further defections could paralyze an organization that
   Mr. Assange says has 40 core volunteers and about 800 mostly unpaid
   followers to maintain a diffuse web of computer servers and to secure the
   system against attack a** to guard against the kind of infiltration that
   WikiLeaks itself has used to generate its revelations.

   Mr. Assangea**s detractors also accuse him of pursuing a vendetta against
   the United States. In London, Mr. Assange said America was an increasingly
   militarized society and a threat to democracy. Moreover, he said, a**we
   have been attacked by the United States, so we are forced into a position
   where we must defend ourselves.a**

   Even among those challenging Mr. Assangea**s leadership style, there is
   recognition that the intricate computer and financial architecture
   WikiLeaks uses to shield it against its enemies has depended on its
   founder. a**Hea**s very unique and extremely capable,a** said Ms.
   Jonsdottir, the Icelandic lawmaker.

   A Rash of Scoops

   Before posting the documents on Afghanistan and Iraq, WikiLeaks enjoyed a
   string of coups.

   Supporters were thrilled when the organization posted documents on the
   GuantA!namo Bay detention operation, the contents of Sarah Palina**s
   personal Yahoo email account, reports of extrajudicial killings in Kenya
   and East Timor, the membership rolls of the neo-Nazi British National
   Party and a combat video showing American Apache helicopters in Baghdad in
   2007 gunning down at least 12 people, including two Reuters journalists.

   But now, WikiLeaks has been met with new doubts. Amnesty International and
   Reporters Without Borders have joined the Pentagon in criticizing the
   organization for risking peoplea**s lives by publishing war logs
   identifying Afghans working for the Americans or acting as informers.

   A Taliban spokesman in Afghanistan using the pseudonym Zabiullah Mujahid
   said in a telephone interview that the Taliban had formed a nine-member
   a**commissiona** after the Afghan documents were posted a**to find about
   people who are spying.a** He said the Taliban had a a**wanteda** list of
   1,800 Afghans and was comparing that with names WikiLeaks provided.

   a**After the process is completed, our Taliban court will decide about
   such people,a** he said.

   Mr. Assange defended posting unredacted documents, saying he balanced his
   decision a**with the knowledge of the tremendous good and prevention of
   harm that is causeda** by putting the information into the public domain.
   a**There are no easy choices on the table for this organization,a** he
   said.

   But if Mr. Assange is sustained by his sense of mission, faith is fading
   among his fellow conspirators. His mood was caught vividly in an exchange
   on Sept. 20 with another senior WikiLeaks figure. In an encrypted online
   chat, a transcript of which was passed to The Times, Mr. Assange was
   dismissive of his colleagues. He described them as a**a confederacy of
   fools,a** and asked his interlocutor, a**Am I dealing with a complete
   retard?a**

   In London, Mr. Assange was angered when asked about the rifts. He
   responded testily to questions about WikiLeaksa**s opaque finances,
   Private Manninga**s fate and WikiLeaksa**s apparent lack of accountability
   to anybody but himself, calling the questions a**cretinous,a**
   a**facilea** and reminiscent of a**kindergarten.a**

   Mr. Assange has been equivocal about Private Manning, talking in late
   summer as though the soldier was unavoidable collateral damage, much like
   the Afghans named as informers in the secret Pentagon documents.

   But in London, he took a more sympathetic view, describing Private Manning
   as a a**political prisonera** facing a jail term of up to 52 years,
   without confirming that he was the source of the disclosed war logs. a**We
   have a duty to assist Mr. Manning and other people who are facing legal
   and other consequences,a** he said.

   Mr. Assangea**s own fate seems as imperiled as Private Manninga**s. Last
   Monday, the Swedish Migration Board said Mr. Assangea**s bid for a
   residence permit had been rejected. His British visa will expire early
   next year. When he left the London restaurant at twilight, heading into
   the shadows, he declined to say where he was going. The man who has put
   some of the worlda**s most powerful institutions on his watch list was,
   once more, on the move.

   Eric Schmitt contributed reporting from Washington, and Dexter Filkins
   from Kabul, Afghanistan.

   --

   Nathan Hughes
   Director
   Military Analysis
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com

    

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   Office: +1 512-279-9479
   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 03:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1630947_re-profile-of-wikileaks-founder-julian-assange-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1632040</id>
    <title>Re: Thoughts on Der Spiegel?
</title>
    <description>   Other media reports that the new intelligence itself came from BND (other
   than just the laptop which the article mentions).  I bet it was leaked by
   them or IAEA in Vienna.

   Marko Papic wrote:

     To answer Reva's question, this is certainly something that could be
     assumed. Mossad and German intelligence have grown close over the years,
     especially following the fiasco in Munich. On the other hand, Der
     Spiegel usually does very good in depth analyses and investigative work.
     Best at that in Germany. In that way, it has a very good tradition of
     investigative journalism similar to the Guardian (although it is a
     weekly, not a daily like the Guardian).

     Kamran Bokhari wrote:

 If you are going by what defectors tell you then it is also reasonable to
 assume that the Iranians have moved things around since the defections.

 -----Original Message-----
 From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
 On Behalf Of Fred Burton
 Sent: January-25-10 1:43 PM
 To: Analyst List
 Subject: Re: Thoughts on Der Spiegel?

 Western experts believe that this center developed into a
 sub-organization of the Defense Ministry known as the FEDAT, an acronym
 for the "Department for Expanded High-Technology Applications" -- the
 secret heart of Iran's nuclear weapons program. The head of that
 organization is Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, 48, an officer in the Revolutionary
 Guard and a professor at Tehran's Imam Hossein University.

 ** This kind of granularity is critical.


 Reva Bhalla wrote:
  

 Any thoughts on Der Spiegel as an outlet for Mossad or any other
 intelligence agencies?  Have we seen examples of this in the past?  They
 have some insane detail here (read the second half) where they claim
 they've got all this access to a classified doc on Iran's nuclear
 weapons program



           01/25/2010

 


   The Secret Nuclear Dossier


     Intelligence from Tehran Elevates Concern in the West

 By Dieter Bednarz, Erich Follath and Holger Stark

 *The West has long been suspicous of Iran's nuclear program. SPIEGEL has
 obtained new documents on secret tests and leadership structures that
 call into question Tehran's claims to be exclusively interested in the
 peaceful use of the technology.*

 It was probably the last attempt to defuse the nuclear dispute with
 Tehran without having to turn to dramatic new sanctions or military
 action. The plan, devised at the White House in October, had Russian and
 Chinese support and came with the seal of approval of the US president.
 It was clearly a Barack Obama operation.


 Under the plan, Iran would send a large share of its low enriched
 uranium abroad, all at once, for a period of one year, receiving
 internationally monitored quantities of nuclear fuel elements in return.
 It was a deal that provided benefits for all sides. The Iranians would
 have enough material for what they claim is their civilian nuclear
 program, as well as for scientific experiments, and the world could be
 assured that Tehran would not be left with enough fissile material for
 its secret domestic uranium enrichment program -- and for what the West
 assumes is the building of a nuclear bomb.


         PHOTO GALLERY

     * &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;
     * &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;
     * &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;


 3  Photos
 *Photo Gallery:* Iran's Nuclear Program
 &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;


 Tehran's leaders initially agreed to the proposal "in principle." But
 for weeks they put off the international community with vague allusions
 to a "final response," and when that response finally materialized, it
 came in the form of a "counter-proposal." Under this proposal, Tehran
 insisted that the exchange could not take place all at once, but only in
 stages, and that the material would not be sent abroad. Instead, Tehran
 wanted the exchange to take place in Iran.

 Once again, the Iranian leadership has rebuffed the West with phony
 promises of its willingness to compromise. The government in Tehran
 officially rejected the nuclear exchange plan last Tuesday. To make
 matters worse, after the West's discovery of a secret uranium enrichment
 plant near Qom, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad defiantly announced that
 he would never give in, and in fact would build 10 more enrichment
 plants instead.

 *Highly Volatile Material*

 But officials in Washington and European capitals are currently not as
 concerned about these cocky, unrealistic announcements as they are about
 intelligence reports based on sources within Iran and information from
 high-ranking defectors. The new information, say American experts, will
 likely prompt the US government to reassess the risks coming from the
 mullah-controlled country in the coming days and raise the alarm level
 from yellow to red. Skeptics who in the past, sometimes justifiably so,
 treated alarmist reports as Israeli propaganda, are also extremely
 worried. They include the experts from the United Nations International
 Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whose goal is prevent the spread of nuclear
 weapons.

 After an extensive internal investigation, IAEA officials concluded that
 a computer obtained from Iran years ago contains highly volatile
 material. The laptop reached the Americans through Germany's foreign
 intelligence agency, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), and was then
 passed on to the IAEA in Vienna.

 Reports by Ali Reza Asgari, Iran's former deputy defense minister who
 managed to defect to the United States, where he was given a new
 identity, proved to be just as informative. Nuclear scientist Shahram
 Amiri, who "disappeared" during a pilgrimage to Mecca in June 2009, is
 also believed to have particularly valuable information. The Iranian
 authorities accused Saudi Arabia and the United States of kidnapping the
 expert, but it is more likely that he defected.

 Iran's government has come under pressure as a result of the new
 charges. They center on the question of who exactly is responsible for
 the country's nuclear program -- and what this says about its true
 nature. The government has consistently told the IAEA that the only
 agency involved in uranium enrichment is the National Energy Council,
 and that its work was exclusively dedicated to the peaceful use of the
 technology.

 But if the claims are true that have been made in an intelligence
 dossier currently under review in diplomatic circles in Washington,
 Vienna, Tel Aviv and Berlin, portions of which SPIEGEL has obtained,
 this is a half-truth at best.

 According to the classified document, there is a secret military branch
 of Iran's nuclear research program that answers to the Defense Ministry
 and has clandestine structures. The officials who have read the dossier
 conclude that the government in Tehran is serious about developing a
 bomb, and that its plans are well advanced. There are two names that
 appear again and again in the documents, particularly in connection with
 the secret weapons program: Kamran Daneshjoo and Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.

 *Secret Heart of Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program*

 Daneshjoo, 52, Iran's new minister of science, research and technology,
 is also responsible for the country's nuclear energy agency, and he is
 seen as a close ally of Ahmadinejad. Opposition leaders say he is a
 hardliner who was partly responsible for the apparently rigged
 presidential election in June. Daneshjoo's biography includes only
 marginal references to his possible nuclear expertise. In describing
 himself, the man with the steely-gray beard writes that he studied
 engineering in the British city of Manchester, and then spent several
 years working at a Tehran "Center for Aviation Technology." Western
 experts believe that this center developed into a sub-organization of
 the Defense Ministry known as the FEDAT, an acronym for the "Department
 for Expanded High-Technology Applications" -- the secret heart of Iran's
 nuclear weapons program. The head of that organization is Mohsen
 Fakhrizadeh, 48, an officer in the Revolutionary Guard and a professor
 at Tehran's Imam Hossein University.

 Western intelligence agencies believe that although the nuclear energy
 agency and the FEDAT compete in some areas, they have agreed to a
 division of labor on the central issue of nuclear weapons research, with
 the nuclear agency primarily supervising uranium enrichment while the
 FEDAT is involved in the construction of a nuclear warhead to be used in
 Iran's Shahab missiles. Experts believe that Iran's scientists could
 produce a primitive, truck-sized version of the bomb this year, but that
 it would have to be compressed to a size that would fit into a nuclear
 warhead to yield the strategic threat potential that has Israel and the
 West so alarmed -- and that they could reach that stage by sometime
 between 2012 and 2014.

 The Iranians are believed to have conducted non-nuclear tests of a
 detonating mechanism for a nuclear bomb more than six years ago. The
 challenge in the technology is to uniformly ignite the conventional
 explosives surrounding the uranium core -- which is needed to produce
 the desired chain reaction. It is believed that the test series was
 conducted with a warhead encased in aluminum. In other words, everything
 but the core was "real." According to the reports, the Tehran engineers
 used thin fibers and a measuring circuit board in place of the fissile
 material. This enabled them to measure the shock waves and photograph
 flashes that simulate the detonation of a nuclear bomb with some degree
 of accuracy. The results were apparently so encouraging that the Iranian
 government has since classified the technology as "feasible."

 SPIEGEL obtained access to a FEDAT organizational chart and a list of
 the names of scientists working for the agency. The Vienna-based IAEA
 also has these documents, but the Iranian president claims that they are
 forged and are being used to discredit his country. After reporting two
 years ago that the Iranians had frozen their nuclear weapons research in
 2003, the CIA and other intelligence agencies will probably paint a
 significantly more sobering scenario just as the UN Security Council is
 considering tougher sanctions against Iran.

 *Mulling Sanctions*

 When France assumes the Council's rotating chairmanship in February,
 Washington could push for a showdown. While Moscow is not ruling out
 additional punitive measures, China, which has negotiated billions in
 energy deals with Iran, is more likely to block such measures.

 China could, however, approve "smart" sanctions, such as travel
 restrictions for senior members of the Revolutionary Guard and nuclear
 scientists. Fakhrizadeh is already on a list of officials subject to
 such restrictions, and Daneshjoo could well be added in the future.

 But the West would presumably be on its own when enforcing sanctions
 that would be truly harmful to Iran -- and to its own, profitable trade
 relations with Tehran. The most effective trade weapon would be a fuel
 embargo. Because of a lack of refinery capacity Iran, which has the
 world's second-largest oil reserves, imports almost half of the gasoline
 it uses. Sanctions would trigger a sharp rise in the price of gasoline,
 inevitably leading to social unrest. Experts are divided over whether it
 would be directed against the unpopular regime or if the country's
 leaders could once again inflame the Iranian people against the "evil
    

 West."
  

 This leaves the military option. Apart from the political consequences
 and the possibility of counter-attacks, bombing Iran's nuclear
 facilities would be extremely difficult. The nuclear experts have
 literally buried themselves and their facilities underground, in
 locations that would be virtually impossible to reach with conventional
 weapons.

 While even Israeli experts are skeptical over how much damage bombing
 the facilities could do to the nuclear program, the normally levelheaded
 US General David Petraeus sounded downright belligerent when asked
 whether the Iranian nuclear facilities could be attacked militarily.
 "Well, they certainly can be bombed," he said just two weeks ago in
 Washington.

 /Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan/

    

  

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Analyst Development Program
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-01-25 20:35:56</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-11 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1632040_re-thoughts-on-der-spiegel-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1632869</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] Discussion- Al-Mabhouh blowback
</title>
    <description>   We were discussing this during our video review.  My belief is that some
   of these operatives' career is over.  They're gonna go work in a little
   Mossad office once they come back in from the cold.  They have to stay
   somewhere they don't feel at risk of getting picked up. 

   Bringing intelligence officers in to work at headquarters is really not an
   uncommon thing.  Nearly everyone gets exposed somehow in their career. 
   Usually the NOCs are younger for that reason, eventually they have to be
   official cover or back at HQ.  I don't think they'll be disappointed after
   pulling this off.

   Ginger Hatfield wrote:

     So what happens to those operatives now? Do they just fade away back
     into their "normal" lives as intelligence agents? Or are the authorities
     in the various countries they scattered to reviewing camera footage from
     their arrivals at the airports and trying to track them down that way
     (if that's even possible)? But if they made it back to Israel, then
     they're home free.

      
     This has been reported previously but it's interesting that they used
     real (albeit stolen) identities for some members of the hit team but
     made-up ones for others.

     The three hit men/woman from Ireland technically don't exist. Their
     passports were counterfeit. But at least seven people who live in Israel
     claim their identities were stolen and used by the hit team.
     http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iwVdaYpYsBz7wKRCUxpcqhtjr31AD9DU421G0
     http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/dubai/7250217/Dubai-Hamas-assassination-Irish-citizens-not-involved-Ireland-says.html

     scott stewart wrote:

       I suspect they went back and interviewed cab drivers, etc. Not hard to
       do.

        

        

       From: ct-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:ct-bounces@stratfor.com] On
       Behalf Of Ben West
       Sent: Wednesday, February 17, 2010 5:06 PM
       To: CT AOR
       Subject: Re: [CT] Discussion- Al-Mabhouh blowback

        

       right, but there was no inherent connection between the hotel and the
       shopping center that I could see. In order to run TrapWire, you first
       have to have the images to analyze - I'm curious as to who decided to
       look at the shopping center tapes and how they determined that it
       needed to be looked at.
       In general, this just seems too good to be true.  Either Dubai police
       department are a bunch of bad-asses or someone got help.

       Fred Burton wrote:

 Forensically, you start on the hotel tapes from the floor of the murder

 and walk the cat back, using TrapWire like software.

  

 Ben West wrote:

  

 One thing I was talking to Bayless about just now: I realize that there

 is now face recognition technology out there that would allow the

 Emirates to track these people, but in order to use that, you have to

 have the right set of images to work from in the first place.

 Running analysis at the airport makes sense because the team would have

 scanned their passports there and so had to have gone through the

 airport.  Same for the hotels, authorities would have been able to place

 the team members at each hotel based on their passports, which would

 help specify which video to analyze.

 However, I don't understand how they got video of the team going into

 the shopping center.  Out of all the random places that the team

 could've met, what prompted the police to check that shopping center?

 Either they ran checks on hundreds of other CCTV tapes or they somehow

 had a tip that the team was meeting at the mall.

  

 Fred Burton wrote:

    

 Yes, I think as you break down the tape, the teams had specific roles.

 If host country intelligence and/or another service picked up on them,

 they had enough players in the mix to send any surveillance team down a

 rat hole.  I think we are missing something on the dead guy.

  

 George Friedman wrote:

  

       

 17 people for a hit leaves so many opportunities for failure that its

 breathtaking.  Maybe it is the Israelis, but that is way out of the

 box.  Like I said, I wonder how many were camo.  I bet you some of those

 who resolved back to the Israeli passport holders weren't even aware

 there was a hit on.  That much razzle dazzle might mean a small team

 hidden in a big box.

  

 Fred Burton wrote:

    

         

 Wow

  

 His links to Iran must have been very important.

  

 Sean Noonan wrote:

  

       

           

 Just to clarify--NYT, sourced from Dubai police, says 17 people now.

 The 11 they identified, with pictures/passport info, and then 6 others.

 Fred Burton wrote:

    

         

             

 When you break down the video tape, efforts were made by the hit team to

 conceal their identities from the video.

  

 The operation was worked around the video tape I think.

  

 Between 13-15 men were in play; multiple surveillance teams; hand offs,

 clothing changes; wigs, toupees, cover for action.

  

 Mossad has made several tactical errors in the past, to include the loss

 of two Palestinian double agents in Europe.

  

 They had the same passport foul up on the attempt to poison Mishaal in

 Amman, which led to them being caught.

  

 Frankly, Mossad has a history of bungled operations, but quite a few

 good ones, like Ali Hassan Salameh.

  

 This was Mossad.

  

 George Friedman wrote:

 

       

           

               

 A Mossad team would be extremely aware of placement of security

 cameras.  They would not be doing what this woman did.  She is to a

 great extent blown now.  Major intelligence agencies would be able to do

 biometrics on her pretty effectively.  An agent competent enough to

 participate in an assassination of a HVT in an Arab country would be

 highly trained and prized.  So from this we can assume that she is

 either a throwaway in the team or that this isn't a major league

 hit--and it was. The Israelis did not need to make this appear to be an

 Israeli hit because everyone would assume that it was Israeli anyway. No

 need for confirmation.  For a hit like this the passports used would

 have been much harder to trace, certainly not to living people in

 Israel.  The Israelis, like all intelligence organizations, maintain

 libraries of properly aged identities that don't resolve to living

 people.

  

 Either this was not an Israeli hit or the Israelis sent a second tier

 team.  The women looks like she could be Jewish, but she could also be

 middle eastern or American.

 This hit, like some other allegedly Israeli hits in recent years, does

 not follow high professional standards.  Trust me on this--the hotel in

 which this woman stayed was mapped out months ago, probably from blue

 prints but certainly remapped for security devices and cameras.  She was

 briefed (pounded into her head) where the cameras were and to turn her

 head as she walked by, preferably wearing a dress that hid her figure--a

 blob on the video camera.  Instead, she is hamming it up.  Looking at

 her, she wasn't the honey trap, so what the hell is going on?

  

 Sean Noonan wrote:

   

         

             

                 

 As Posey works on the piece from the tactical angle, I wanted to bring

 up the political angle.  Now that all kinds of information has come

 out on the assassination of Hamas operative Al-Mabhouh in Dubai on

 Jan. 19, European governments are starting to question the fraudulent

 use of their passports.  6 British, 3 Irish, 1 German and 1 French

 passports were all faked/stolen/borrowed and then used by the

 assassination team.  NYT/Dubai says there were another 6 involved, who

 they probably didn't get on camera.

 Israel has in the past borrowed/acquired passports from immigrated or

 dual-citizens of other countries (like Canada for failed Meshaal

 assassination). They also can fake them or steal them.  It's becoming

 clear that this was a Mossad op, so if we make that assumption, what's

 the blowback on Israel?

  

 UK is asking questions:

 http://www.english.rfi.fr/europe/20100217-uk-presses-answers-hamas-killing

  

 http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5heI4dq286UxVDMXoueq-dwR8tbJw

  

 http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=37297

  

 Ireland from a week or so ago:

 http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/world-news/israeli-hit-squad-that-killed-hamas-commander-had-irish-passports-14670094.html

  

  

 Six of the passport _names_ had dual citizenship with israel:

 http://articles.latimes.com/2010/feb/16/world/la-fg-dubai-slaying17-2010feb17

  

  

 I haven't seen stuff from other countries yet.  When this happened to

 the Canadians with Meshaal, they couldn't/didn't do much.  Will the

 Brits or anyone else do anything?  Obviously Israel doesn't really

 give a shit, but I feel like this is something we should watch.

  

 --

 Sean Noonan

 ADP- Tactical Intelligence

 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

 www.stratfor.com

  

        

           

               

                   

 --

  

 George Friedman

  

 Founder and CEO

  

 Stratfor

  

 700 Lavaca Street

  

 Suite 900

  

 Austin, Texas 78701

  

  

 Phone  512-744-4319

  

 Fax  512-744-4334

  

    

         

             

                 

  

       

           

 --

  

 George Friedman

  

 Founder and CEO

  

 Stratfor

  

 700 Lavaca Street

  

 Suite 900

  

 Austin, Texas 78701

  

  

 Phone  512-744-4319

  

 Fax  512-744-4334

  

    

         

 --

 Ben West

 Terrorism and Security Analyst

 STRATFOR

 Austin,TX

 Cell: 512-750-9890

  

    

 --

 Ben West

 Terrorism and Security Analyst

 STRATFOR

 Austin,TX

 Cell: 512-750-9890

 --
 Sean Noonan
 ADP- Tactical Intelligence
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-02-17 23:47:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1632869_re-ct-discussion-al-mabhouh-blowback-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1632874</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat
</title>
    <description>   From a small amount of research, I actually think they do a pretty good
   job.  Both French and German capabilities are very much overlooked.  Thank
   James Bond and Jack Bauer. 

   are you the analysis boss today?
   On 11/22/10 10:58 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

     In the more long-term, I think an analysis of the German intelligence
     agencies would be good too. They have been pretty decimated by the Cold
     War and by all the problems associated with running an intelligence
     agency in a post-Gestapo country. If Germany is ever going to become a
     world power again, however, they would need to overcome these deamons as
     well. That is sort of the last straw for Germany, the one that is going
     to be most sensitive to overcome. But perhaps this case may illustrate
     how they are already overcoming these issues.

     On 11/22/10 10:50 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       Main problem is that Der Spiegel is just that good, they've at least
       touched on most of what I would want to say about it.  The main thing
       here is how the politics of a terror threat/alert coincide with the
       reality of the threat itself. 

       We saw that Germany was fairly relaxed bout the earlier threat in
       Europe released by the US.  I'm not sure if that was the same as the
       info that the FBI passed over about this shia group, Saif (I don't
       know anything about them).  But something changed, as we noted last
       week in their interpretation.  That seems to go down to this virtual
       walk-in.  The one thing I was left confused about is whether BKA had
       ever been in contact with this source before.  It sounds like he cold
       called them.  It's common knowledge that walk-ins, rather than
       recruits, are nearly always the best sources.  But at the same time,
       they are very suspicious as double agents.  If this was a US source
       they would be freaking the fuck out after having Al-Balawi turn on
       them.  The germans seem to have cooler heads, but they will be working
       24/7 to verify the source (let me make another plug for John Lecarre's
       A Most Wanted Man here, most of his career was in Germany). 

       They've clearly got enough corroborating information that they
       consider this a real threat.  But politically they are faced with the
       universal 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' alert problem.  If
       the Interior ministry doesn't say something, they will be liable if an
       attack occurs.  Look at the constant press over information on the
       warning intelligence for Mumbai.  As we've said before, simply issuing
       the warning may help to deter the attackers. 

       The real important bit here, is that it seems the germans have fairly
       good intelligence.  While this attack is still not happening tomorrow,
       they have a lot of details about what might be in the works, rather
       than a single-source intercept that indicates some vague threat.  It
       seems they've increased security pretty well at the Bundestag, and
       want to add to the presence at any possible target.  This is where we
       seem them scrambling, and where their intelligence holes are. 

       The task now for the germans is to verify this source.  Maybe even
       pick him up and put him on ice somewhere (Fred/Stick?), not in GErmany
       but in Pakistan/Afghanistan.  That will require some cooperation with
       either/both the Americans and Pakistanis.  They also need to verify
       all the bio information they have on these 4-6 guys trying to get into
       germany and watch travelers very carefully.  The germans seem to be
       very good at surveilling these threats within Germany, so their best
       luck may come when one of the guys overseas contacts a local already
       under surveillance. 

       At minimum, this could be a pretty interesting tearline this week. 
       Both the walk-in issues and the CIA/FBI liaison conflicts that I
       havne't gotten into here. 
       On 11/22/10 10:34 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

         Any thoughts on where you guys are thinking of going with this?

         Der Spiegel article is indeed interesting.

         On 11/22/10 9:28 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           Great report from Der Spiegel (thanks Mikey).  I suggest anyone
           interested to read the whole thing.  They ask the right questions,
           and while not as much detail as I hoped, give us a much better
           understanding on the threat in Germany. 

           The BKA (germany's FBI) must be extremely busy verifying the
           details of this virtual walk-in.  It obviously caused the germans
           to shit their pants.  But the real questions are buried in the
           article---how real was this plot, how real is the source, is the
           source just trying to get back to the land of brezeln and bier?
           Trying to double-cross them somehow?

           Also note the tip off from the FBI (cue fred), not the usual CIA
           liaison with BND. 

           For Eurasia, there's a lot in here on the internal politics of the
           interior minister position, and the relation between state and
           federal government. 

           On 11/22/10 8:55 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

             -------- Original Message --------

              Subject: [OS] GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror      
                       Threat                                                 
                 Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 08:38:21 -0600                        
                 From: Graham Smith &lt;graham.smith@stratfor.com&gt;               
             Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                          
                   To: os@stratfor.com                                        

              11/22/2010 11:38 AM
             Fears of a Mumbai Redux
             The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat

             http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,730377,00.html
             By Matthias Bartsch, Yassin Musharbash and Holger Stark

             Germany is currently in a state of high alert. Security
             officials are warning that they have concrete information
             pointing to a possible terror attack on the federal parliament
             building in Berlin, a massively popular tourist attraction. The
             days of Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere's reserved stances
             in dealing with such warnings appear to be over.

             The call came from abroad, and the man speaking hurriedly on the
             other end of the line sounded as if he feared for his life. He
             wanted out, he told the officers of the German Federal Criminal
             Police Office (BKA) -- out of the terrorist scene. He wanted to
             come back to Germany, back to his family. Then he asked if
             German officials could help him.

             Right now, they're trying to do just that. The BKA is pursuing
             the case under the codename "Nova." The apparently remorseful
             man could be an important possible whistleblower from a
             dangerous region of the globe. In fact, he is also the most
             recent reason why German Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere
             put the entire country in a state of fright on Wednesday.

             During a hastily called press conference that day, de Maiziere
             stated that Germany faced the threat of terrorist attacks that
             might be launched against the country at some point in November.
             As he put it, Germany is "presently dealing with a new
             situation."
             Just two days earlier, the source had called for the third time
             in just a short period and provided more information. He told
             officials that a small group of terrorists wanted to conduct a
             raid on the Reichstag building in Berlin, which houses the
             federal parliament, and that that was only one of the targets
             included in their attack plans.

             Germany on High Alert

             Since then, Germany has been in a state of high alert. The
             Reichstag is surrounded with barricades and its popular cupola
             tourist attraction temporarily closed to visitors. Police armed
             with submachine guns are patrolling major railway stations and
             airports. And vacations have been called off for officials at
             the country's security agencies. Wherever they have cause for
             doing so, the authorities are secretly monitoring
             communications, conducting surveillance operations and launching
             undercover investigations. At the moment, investigators seem to
             be at a loss; their modus operandi: "We'll prod the shrubs and
             see if we can flush out any birds."

             "There is cause for worry, but no cause for hysteria," de
             Maiziere assured his listeners. But while he has never been much
             of an agitator, his colleagues at the state level have described
             the situation in much more drastic terms. Uwe Schu:nemann, for
             example, who has been the interior minister of the northwestern
             state of Lower Saxony since 2003, stated that he had "never
             experienced a heightened security situation like this one." And
             Berlin Senator for the Interior Ehrhart Ko:rting, whose position
             is tantamount to that of a government minister in the
             city-state, has already even gone so far as to call on the
             inhabitants of the German capital city to report
             suspicious-looking individuals of Arab origin to the police. "If
             you suddenly see three somewhat strange-looking men who are new
             to your neighborhood, who hide their faces and who only speak
             Arabic," Ko:rting said, "you should report them to the
             authorities."

             Under heightened pressure, officials in Germany's 16 federal
             states are now checking to see when and where major events are
             scheduled to take place this coming week within their
             boundaries. And nothing suggested as a possible target is being
             discounted, no matter how unlikely. For example, officials in
             Rhineland-Palatinate warned the state's interior minister, Karl
             Peter Burch, that there was always a lot going on at IKEA stores
             on Saturdays.[WTF]

             Serenity, Scaremongering and Strategy

             Since last week, German politicians at both the state and
             federal levels have once again had to figure out how they will
             handle themselves when making warnings about terrorist attacks.
             They have had to come up with a language that can simultaneously
             convey both an alert and a sense of calm.

             This is no easy task. For one thing, this isn't the first time
             this has happened. In September 2009, for example, right before
             federal elections were held, there were concrete threats that
             resulted in a heightened security situation. But, in the end,
             nothing happened. This time around, people are wondering whether
             they are on the precipice of an emergency or whether these are
             once again empty threats.

             Still, one thing is certain: For the time being, Germany has
             become a different country -- more nervous, more anxious, more
             agitated. And Germany's domestic security policies are being put
             to the test.

             When Interior Minister de Maiziere assumed his office in October
             2009 in conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel's government, he
             aimed to cool down the heated sense of alarm regularly fanned
             out by his predecessors. What's more, the man who had served as
             Merkel's chief of staff in Chancellery until being moved to the
             role of interior minister in her new government, was given the
             task of nurturing a more relaxed relationship between her party,
             the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and its new coalition
             partner, the business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP). In
             particular, it was his job to not draw out the long-standing
             conflict over domestic security policies with the Justice
             Ministry, which has been led since the 2009 election by Sabine
             Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, a member of the FDP. Indeed, Merkel
             feared that the quarrelsome FDP might try to capitalize on the
             issue to win over more voters, so she assigned de Maiziere to
             prevent that from happening.

             In fact, the plan was to repeat the same strategy that the CDU
             and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU),
             had used when they were in the so-called "grand coalition" with
             the center-left Social Democratic Party, between 2005 and 2009.
             At the time, they made a point of undermining the SPD by
             championing what had traditionally been the latter party's
             issues.

             A Game-Changer

             But now the game plan has changed. This November will
             drastically alter de Maiziere's understanding of his role in
             office. If he tries to return things to their previous state of
             calm, he's going to have a very tough time. In fact, it's much
             more likely that he will be a completely different interior
             minister.

             For a while now, de Maiziere's softer stance has prompted
             opposition by politicians on the right involved with domestic
             security issues. But they are now calling louder than ever for a
             tougher course to be followed. Merkel is also adjusting to the
             new situation and is reportedly happy with the way de Maiziere
             handled himself last week. Likewise, no one seems to have voiced
             any criticism last Thursday evening during a meeting of the
             Coalition Committee, a regular gathering of the parties that are
             part of the government.

             The almost complete lack of protest has a lot to do with where
             the alarming information is coming from. In fact, information
             regarding the supposedly imminent attacks has come from two
             independent sources. Shortly before receiving the telephone call
             about the planned attacks, BKA officials had received a cable
             from their American counterparts at the FBI, America's federal
             police force, warning of possible attacks.

             Still, what truth is there in these "security-related" pieces of
             information coming from both domestic and foreign sources? And,
             given all the discrepancies in the warning messages, just how
             much do they deserve to be trusted? Indeed, even among security
             officials themselves, there is some doubt about how legitimate
             these statements are -- and about just how acute the danger
             threatening Germany really is.

             An Attack Modelled after Mumbai[plot details in this section]
             What the caller reported was undeniably alarming. According to
             him, al-Qaida and associated groups based in Pakistan were
             making joint preparations for an attack in Germany. One idea was
             to remotely detonate a bomb using a mobile phone. Another called
             for a small group of terrorists to storm the Reichstag with guns
             blazing, take hostages and end everything in one calamitous
             bloodbath. Indeed, BKA officials learned that the latter plan
             had been modeled on the storming of luxury hotels in Mumbai, the
             Indian capital, almost exactly two years ago, in a massacre that
             left 175 people dead.

             According to the caller, the plan called for the terrorists to
             procure the submachine guns, automatic rifles, explosives and
             whatever else they would need to storm Germany's parliament
             building in the Balkans. He said that two men had already
             traveled to Germany six to eight weeks earlier, adding that one
             had the nom de guerre of "Abu Mohammed" and that the other one
             was a German of Turkish origin. Both apparently had roots in the
             Greater Berlin metropolitan area, were currently unemployed and
             living off of welfare payments and had immersed themselves in
             the anonymity provided by a major city -- until the time should
             come for their activation.

             Likewise, there were allegedly four other volunteers --
             including a German, a Turk, a North African and another jihadist
             of unknown identity -- in the training camps run by al-Qaida and
             related groups waiting for the signal to travel to Germany. And,
             according to the telephone source, al-Qaida's plan was to attack
             in February or March.
             The only question now relates to just how credible the caller's
             statements are. He is an insider who joined up with armed groups
             several months ago and has earned a reputation as a fanatic
             fighter.
             But could it be that he is only trying to tell German officials
             the juiciest things possible in order to raise his own market
             value and thereby prompt them to extract him from the terror
             scene? Or could it be that al-Qaida is even planning a second
             spectacular coup like the one in December 2009, when the
             Americans allowed a supposedly top-level turncoat onto an
             American military base without any sort of pat-down, who went on
             to detonate his explosive vest and blow seven CIA officials to
             bits?

             A Strange Message

             A clear picture has yet to emerge. And one reason for this is
             also the fact that it was only two weeks ago that the FBI first
             decided to share information about another possible attack with
             German officials.

             In this case, even the way contact was made was unusual. Under
             normal circumstances, liaisons from the CIA station in Germany
             are the ones to communicate American warnings to their German
             counterparts. But, this time around, it was an apparently
             particularly anxious FBI that chose to directly notify the BKA.
             The FBI told the Germans about an obscure Indian group called
             "Saif," or "sword." Despite being a Shiite group, it had
             allegedly made a pact with al-Qaida, a Sunni organization, and
             sent five of its men to the Pakistani province of Waziristan for
             training. According to the FBI, two volunteers -- who were
             already equipped with visas allowing them to travel freely
             within the 25 European countries belonging to the Schengen zone
             -- were supposedly already en route to Germany and would enter
             the United Arab Emirates on Monday, Nov. 22. There, they would
             allegedly be provided with new travel documents before traveling
             on to Germany. One of the men is supposedly named "Khan," which
             is about as common in that part of the world as "Smith" is in
             English-speaking countries. And no firm conclusion had been made
             about their nationalities.

             The FBI agents even named the presumed masterminds behind the
             operation. A certain Mushtaq Altaf Bin-Khadri, who is in charge
             of finances and training for "Saif," allegedly dispatched the
             terrorist squad. But the FBI was not in a position to comment on
             the targets of the two men in Germany.

             One name came up time and again in the communique, and one that
             pricked the Germans' ears: Dawood Ibrahim. The 54-year-old arms
             trader is "India's most-wanted man." The US government has
             listed him as a "global terrorist" and persuaded the United
             Nations to place his name on a list of supporters of terror.
             Ibrahim is rumored to be the head of D-Company, a criminal
             syndicate named after himself, and is believed to be in charge
             of smuggling the suspected terrorists into Germany.

             Both the FBI and the BKA are attaching a lot of importance to
             the information in the FBI communique. But the intelligence
             services of the two countries -- the CIA in the United States
             and the BND and Office for the Protection of the Constitution in
             Germany, the country's foreign and domestic intelligence
             agencies, respectively -- point to internal contradictions as
             reasons for their skepticism. As they see it, for example, it is
             highly unlikely that a Shiite group would team up with Sunni
             terrorists, especially since a good part of al-Qaida propaganda
             vilifies Shiites. Other reasons for doubt include the facts that
             none of the intelligence agencies was previously familiar with
             an organization called "Saif," that there have been no
             previously recorded threats against Germany by Indian
             extremists, and that the whole scenario seems rather
             implausible.

             On the other hand, the FBI information is uncommonly concrete.
             In addition to the names of the suspects, it also provides
             information about the exact day on which they are supposed to
             arrive in the United Arab Emirates. Moreover, Ibrahim is
             believed to be one of the men behind the terror attacks in
             Mumbai. If he really is involved, that alone would be reason
             enough for worry.

             Abnormal Circumstances

             Under normal circumstances, a message of this kind from the
             United States would no doubt be cause for serious-minded
             scrutiny, but it would not be a cause for alarm. For example,
             the BKA would go through all recent visa applications, and
             federal police officers would take a closer look at all the
             people entering Germany from Arab states. And the intelligence
             services would make the rounds to see if any of its partners had
             any helpful information on the matter.

             Indeed, under normal circumstances, there are always a lot of
             these communiques, most of which turn out to be false alarms.
             But these are no normal circumstances. Germany is in a state of
             emergency. Other countries, such as the United States, employ a
             system of official warning levels based on color codes that
             change -- from yellow to orange, for example -- when the danger
             level is thought to increase. But, in Germany, the interior
             minister is the barometer: He consults with experts -- and then
             it is he who must call the shots.

             For the minister, a situation like this presents a dilemma. If
             he remains silent and something happens, he's a failure. If he
             makes loud warning and nothing happens, he's just a
             rabble-rouser trying to push through controversial tougher
             security laws. And, of course, the public never thanks you if
             everyday life continues in a normal, peaceful way.

             Absolute Security Remains a Pipe Dream

             When de Maiziere became Germany's interior minister, he had
             planned to lead the ministry in a level-headed way. For example,
             he prefers to use phrases such as "internal calm" rather than
             "internal security." And it was only six weeks ago that he
             uttered the sentence: "There's no cause for alarm." But, since
             then, the chorus of warning voices has only ballooned in size.

             This change in course is the combined result of everything that
             happened beforehand. It might very well turn out that the
             alleged Indian terror squad stays home and that the raid on the
             Reichstag never happens. But what will remain is a well-founded
             supposition that there is a critical mass of terrorists in the
             border region between Afghanistan and Pakistan that is thinking
             about launching attacks in Europe -- and certainly in Germany,
             as well.

             Raw Nerves

             Given such circumstances, there is a major sense of alarm among
             German officials. Last Thursday, just a day after de Maiziere's
             shocking press conference, the BKA issued a press release "in
             connection with the current high-risk situation." It reported
             that a piece of suspicious luggage had been discovered a day
             earlier in Windhoek, the capital of Namibia, before being loaded
             onto a plane bound for Germany. The laptop bag contained
             batteries, wires, a detonator and a clock -- in other words, all
             the ingredients you need for a potential airborne catastrophe.

             It sounded as if another terror plot had been foiled. Had there
             been a plan to blow up Air Berlin Flight 7377 en route to
             Munich? And had the authorities, yet again, discovered an
             explosive device at the last minute? In the end, all the worry
             was unfounded. As it turned out, the piece of luggage was a test
             device built by a company that designs "real test" suitcases to
             be used to test security measures. It remains unclear who
             checked the bag in. But the fact that the BKA was so quick to go
             into alarm mode -- and publicly so -- has been a communications
             debacle.

             Of course, these days, nobody wants to be the one that wasn't
             sufficiently circumspect, the one who took too long to speak up.
             No one wants a replay of situations like the one from the
             beginning of November, when de Maiziere didn't know for hours
             whether the package that had arrived at the Chancellery
             contained actual explosives or was just a false alarm. Now, the
             threshold for sounding the alarm is already much lower.

             Bonded by Fear

             Of course, you can never be too sure. Over the last 12 months, a
             series of attacks concocted in the Afghan-Pakistani border
             region have been foiled in the West. For example, in May, a car
             bomb set in New York's Times Square by a man with ties to the
             Pakistani Taliban failed to properly detonate. In Copenhagen,
             al-Qaida had made plans to storm the offices of the
             Jyllands-Posten newspaper as revenge for its 2005 publishing of
             caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad. In October 2009, David
             Headley, an American citizen with Pakistani roots, was arrested
             after having already visited the newspaper's offices in order to
             scout them out before the planned attack. Other targets
             reportedly included the subway systems of New York City and
             Washington.

             On the other hand, absolute security is a pipe dream. For
             example, British authorities had even conducted rehearsals for
             how to respond to possible attacks. But, even so, when attacks
             claiming 56 lives (including those of four attackers) did strike
             London, on July 7, 2005, they were unable to prevent them.
             Likewise, US intelligence services had warned India a number of
             times that terrorists were planning attacks in Mumbai.

             The new situation in Germany has at least had one positive side
             effect: For the time being, the traditionally quarrelsome
             interior ministers from both the state and the federal levels
             have refrained from their usual bickering. Following informal
             talks held last Thursday in Hamburg, Minister Bruch of
             Rhineland-Palatinate noted that he had "never experienced such
             harmony within this group" that has apparently been bonded
             together by their shared fear.

             Translated from the German by Josh Ward

           --

           Sean Noonan

           Tactical Analyst

           Office: +1 512-279-9479

           Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

           Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

           www.stratfor.com

         --

         - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

         Marko Papic

         Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

         STRATFOR

         700 Lavaca Street - 900

         Austin, Texas

         78701 USA

         P: + 1-512-744-4094

         marko.papic@stratfor.com

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

     --

     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

     Marko Papic

     Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

     STRATFOR

     700 Lavaca Street - 900

     Austin, Texas

     78701 USA

     P: + 1-512-744-4094

     marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-22 18:03:17</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1632874_re-discussion-germany-ct-the-story-behind-germany-s-terror.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1633006</id>
    <title>Re: [TACTICAL] Code name Planesman
</title>
    <description>   Hu is the president of China?!?

   Fred Burton wrote:

     I can't keep these Chinemen staright.  Who is who or is who Dr. Who ? 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: tactical-bounces@stratfor.com
     [mailto:tactical-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Sean Noonan
     Sent: Friday, February 19, 2010 8:27 AM
     To: Tactical
     Subject: Re: [TACTICAL] Code name Planesman
     Yes.  Is Yu Zhensan (I misspelled the name originally).  This is also
     who the other source was referring to in some other insight.
     http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2004/dec/14/20041214-104813-7821r/

     &gt;From CN504:
     "In my career, I saw many cases where there was an important PRCIS link
     at some point, but the tradecraft evident in collecting information, in
     transferring the information out of the USA, and establishing and
     maintaining operational security almost always was really weak.  I often
     found myself wondering if the tradecraft I saw in a given case was
     something made up by co-conspirator Zhang San or was really PRCIS
     methodology.  "

     I believe Zhang San is Zhensan but I i'm not sure.  FBI needs to learn
     chinese. 

     Sean Noonan wrote:

       http://books.google.com/books?id=-JkRyQX3V_IC&amp;pg=PA49&amp;dq=yu+zhen+shan+smith&amp;cd=2#v=onepage&amp;q=&amp;f=false

       That link should work--Smith kind of writes around it on pages 48-50
       (though the whole chapter talks about Planesman).  I was pretty sure
       it was Yu Zhenshan when you sent this out last night--a senior officer
       in MSS Foreign Affairs Department.  And the way Smith wrote this, it
       seems to confirm.

       Would be great to have a meeting. 

       Fred Burton wrote:

 I can ask the FBI to arrange a meeting bwt him and us or you.  

 -----Original Message-----
 From: tactical-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:tactical-bounces@stratfor.com]
 On Behalf Of Sean Noonan
 Sent: Friday, February 19, 2010 7:45 AM
 To: Tactical
 Subject: Re: [TACTICAL] Code name Planesman

 I'm 90% sure I know who this is.  I am confirming.  And will see if I can
 find out about his whereabouts.  I sent you an email yesterday about it.



 Fred Burton wrote:
  

 Who was he?  I can make an effort to talk to him, if desired.  

 -----Original Message-----
 From: scott stewart [mailto:scott.stewart@stratfor.com]
 Sent: Friday, February 19, 2010 7:37 AM
 To: burton@stratfor.com; 'Tactical'
 Subject: RE: [TACTICAL] Code name Planesman

 Yes.

 -----Original Message-----
 From: tactical-bounces@stratfor.com
 [mailto:tactical-bounces@stratfor.com]
 On Behalf Of Fred Burton
 Sent: Thursday, February 18, 2010 11:07 PM
 To: Tactical
 Subject: [TACTICAL] Code name Planesman

 Did you note IC's info on ChiCom source/defector code named Planesman?


  
    

 --
 Sean Noonan
 ADP- Tactical Intelligence
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com



  

 --
 Sean Noonan
 ADP- Tactical Intelligence
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

  

 --
 Sean Noonan
 ADP- Tactical Intelligence
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

  

 --
 Sean Noonan
 ADP- Tactical Intelligence
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-02-19 15:33:37</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-20 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1633006_re-tactical-code-name-planesman-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1633021</id>
    <title>DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat
</title>
    <description>   Great report from Der Spiegel (thanks Mikey).  I suggest anyone interested
   to read the whole thing.  They ask the right questions, and while not as
   much detail as I hoped, give us a much better understanding on the threat
   in Germany. 

   The BKA (germany's FBI) must be extremely busy verifying the details of
   this virtual walk-in.  It obviously caused the germans to shit their
   pants.  But the real questions are buried in the article---how real was
   this plot, how real is the source, is the source just trying to get back
   to the land of brezeln and bier? Trying to double-cross them somehow?

   Also note the tip off from the FBI (cue fred), not the usual CIA liaison
   with BND. 

   For Eurasia, there's a lot in here on the internal politics of the
   interior minister position, and the relation between state and federal
   government. 

   On 11/22/10 8:55 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

     -------- Original Message --------

      Subject: [OS] GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat 
         Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 08:38:21 -0600                          
         From: Graham Smith &lt;graham.smith@stratfor.com&gt;                 
     Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                            
           To: os@stratfor.com                                          

      11/22/2010 11:38 AM
     Fears of a Mumbai Redux
     The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat

     http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,730377,00.html
     By Matthias Bartsch, Yassin Musharbash and Holger Stark

     Germany is currently in a state of high alert. Security officials are
     warning that they have concrete information pointing to a possible
     terror attack on the federal parliament building in Berlin, a massively
     popular tourist attraction. The days of Interior Minister Thomas de
     Maiziere's reserved stances in dealing with such warnings appear to be
     over.

     The call came from abroad, and the man speaking hurriedly on the other
     end of the line sounded as if he feared for his life. He wanted out, he
     told the officers of the German Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) --
     out of the terrorist scene. He wanted to come back to Germany, back to
     his family. Then he asked if German officials could help him.

     Right now, they're trying to do just that. The BKA is pursuing the case
     under the codename "Nova." The apparently remorseful man could be an
     important possible whistleblower from a dangerous region of the globe.
     In fact, he is also the most recent reason why German Interior Minister
     Thomas de Maiziere put the entire country in a state of fright on
     Wednesday.

     During a hastily called press conference that day, de Maiziere stated
     that Germany faced the threat of terrorist attacks that might be
     launched against the country at some point in November. As he put it,
     Germany is "presently dealing with a new situation."
     Just two days earlier, the source had called for the third time in just
     a short period and provided more information. He told officials that a
     small group of terrorists wanted to conduct a raid on the Reichstag
     building in Berlin, which houses the federal parliament, and that that
     was only one of the targets included in their attack plans.

     Germany on High Alert

     Since then, Germany has been in a state of high alert. The Reichstag is
     surrounded with barricades and its popular cupola tourist attraction
     temporarily closed to visitors. Police armed with submachine guns are
     patrolling major railway stations and airports. And vacations have been
     called off for officials at the country's security agencies. Wherever
     they have cause for doing so, the authorities are secretly monitoring
     communications, conducting surveillance operations and launching
     undercover investigations. At the moment, investigators seem to be at a
     loss; their modus operandi: "We'll prod the shrubs and see if we can
     flush out any birds."

     "There is cause for worry, but no cause for hysteria," de Maiziere
     assured his listeners. But while he has never been much of an agitator,
     his colleagues at the state level have described the situation in much
     more drastic terms. Uwe Schu:nemann, for example, who has been the
     interior minister of the northwestern state of Lower Saxony since 2003,
     stated that he had "never experienced a heightened security situation
     like this one." And Berlin Senator for the Interior Ehrhart Ko:rting,
     whose position is tantamount to that of a government minister in the
     city-state, has already even gone so far as to call on the inhabitants
     of the German capital city to report suspicious-looking individuals of
     Arab origin to the police. "If you suddenly see three somewhat
     strange-looking men who are new to your neighborhood, who hide their
     faces and who only speak Arabic," Ko:rting said, "you should report them
     to the authorities."

     Under heightened pressure, officials in Germany's 16 federal states are
     now checking to see when and where major events are scheduled to take
     place this coming week within their boundaries. And nothing suggested as
     a possible target is being discounted, no matter how unlikely. For
     example, officials in Rhineland-Palatinate warned the state's interior
     minister, Karl Peter Burch, that there was always a lot going on at IKEA
     stores on Saturdays.[WTF]

     Serenity, Scaremongering and Strategy

     Since last week, German politicians at both the state and federal levels
     have once again had to figure out how they will handle themselves when
     making warnings about terrorist attacks. They have had to come up with a
     language that can simultaneously convey both an alert and a sense of
     calm.

     This is no easy task. For one thing, this isn't the first time this has
     happened. In September 2009, for example, right before federal elections
     were held, there were concrete threats that resulted in a heightened
     security situation. But, in the end, nothing happened. This time around,
     people are wondering whether they are on the precipice of an emergency
     or whether these are once again empty threats.

     Still, one thing is certain: For the time being, Germany has become a
     different country -- more nervous, more anxious, more agitated. And
     Germany's domestic security policies are being put to the test.

     When Interior Minister de Maiziere assumed his office in October 2009 in
     conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel's government, he aimed to cool
     down the heated sense of alarm regularly fanned out by his predecessors.
     What's more, the man who had served as Merkel's chief of staff in
     Chancellery until being moved to the role of interior minister in her
     new government, was given the task of nurturing a more relaxed
     relationship between her party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU),
     and its new coalition partner, the business-friendly Free Democratic
     Party (FDP). In particular, it was his job to not draw out the
     long-standing conflict over domestic security policies with the Justice
     Ministry, which has been led since the 2009 election by Sabine
     Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, a member of the FDP. Indeed, Merkel feared
     that the quarrelsome FDP might try to capitalize on the issue to win
     over more voters, so she assigned de Maiziere to prevent that from
     happening.

     In fact, the plan was to repeat the same strategy that the CDU and its
     Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), had used when
     they were in the so-called "grand coalition" with the center-left Social
     Democratic Party, between 2005 and 2009. At the time, they made a point
     of undermining the SPD by championing what had traditionally been the
     latter party's issues.

     A Game-Changer

     But now the game plan has changed. This November will drastically alter
     de Maiziere's understanding of his role in office. If he tries to return
     things to their previous state of calm, he's going to have a very tough
     time. In fact, it's much more likely that he will be a completely
     different interior minister.

     For a while now, de Maiziere's softer stance has prompted opposition by
     politicians on the right involved with domestic security issues. But
     they are now calling louder than ever for a tougher course to be
     followed. Merkel is also adjusting to the new situation and is
     reportedly happy with the way de Maiziere handled himself last week.
     Likewise, no one seems to have voiced any criticism last Thursday
     evening during a meeting of the Coalition Committee, a regular gathering
     of the parties that are part of the government.

     The almost complete lack of protest has a lot to do with where the
     alarming information is coming from. In fact, information regarding the
     supposedly imminent attacks has come from two independent sources.
     Shortly before receiving the telephone call about the planned attacks,
     BKA officials had received a cable from their American counterparts at
     the FBI, America's federal police force, warning of possible attacks.

     Still, what truth is there in these "security-related" pieces of
     information coming from both domestic and foreign sources? And, given
     all the discrepancies in the warning messages, just how much do they
     deserve to be trusted? Indeed, even among security officials themselves,
     there is some doubt about how legitimate these statements are -- and
     about just how acute the danger threatening Germany really is.

     An Attack Modelled after Mumbai[plot details in this section]
     What the caller reported was undeniably alarming. According to him,
     al-Qaida and associated groups based in Pakistan were making joint
     preparations for an attack in Germany. One idea was to remotely detonate
     a bomb using a mobile phone. Another called for a small group of
     terrorists to storm the Reichstag with guns blazing, take hostages and
     end everything in one calamitous bloodbath. Indeed, BKA officials
     learned that the latter plan had been modeled on the storming of luxury
     hotels in Mumbai, the Indian capital, almost exactly two years ago, in a
     massacre that left 175 people dead.

     According to the caller, the plan called for the terrorists to procure
     the submachine guns, automatic rifles, explosives and whatever else they
     would need to storm Germany's parliament building in the Balkans. He
     said that two men had already traveled to Germany six to eight weeks
     earlier, adding that one had the nom de guerre of "Abu Mohammed" and
     that the other one was a German of Turkish origin. Both apparently had
     roots in the Greater Berlin metropolitan area, were currently unemployed
     and living off of welfare payments and had immersed themselves in the
     anonymity provided by a major city -- until the time should come for
     their activation.

     Likewise, there were allegedly four other volunteers -- including a
     German, a Turk, a North African and another jihadist of unknown identity
     -- in the training camps run by al-Qaida and related groups waiting for
     the signal to travel to Germany. And, according to the telephone source,
     al-Qaida's plan was to attack in February or March.
     The only question now relates to just how credible the caller's
     statements are. He is an insider who joined up with armed groups several
     months ago and has earned a reputation as a fanatic fighter.
     But could it be that he is only trying to tell German officials the
     juiciest things possible in order to raise his own market value and
     thereby prompt them to extract him from the terror scene? Or could it be
     that al-Qaida is even planning a second spectacular coup like the one in
     December 2009, when the Americans allowed a supposedly top-level
     turncoat onto an American military base without any sort of pat-down,
     who went on to detonate his explosive vest and blow seven CIA officials
     to bits?

     A Strange Message

     A clear picture has yet to emerge. And one reason for this is also the
     fact that it was only two weeks ago that the FBI first decided to share
     information about another possible attack with German officials.

     In this case, even the way contact was made was unusual. Under normal
     circumstances, liaisons from the CIA station in Germany are the ones to
     communicate American warnings to their German counterparts. But, this
     time around, it was an apparently particularly anxious FBI that chose to
     directly notify the BKA.
     The FBI told the Germans about an obscure Indian group called "Saif," or
     "sword." Despite being a Shiite group, it had allegedly made a pact with
     al-Qaida, a Sunni organization, and sent five of its men to the
     Pakistani province of Waziristan for training. According to the FBI, two
     volunteers -- who were already equipped with visas allowing them to
     travel freely within the 25 European countries belonging to the Schengen
     zone -- were supposedly already en route to Germany and would enter the
     United Arab Emirates on Monday, Nov. 22. There, they would allegedly be
     provided with new travel documents before traveling on to Germany. One
     of the men is supposedly named "Khan," which is about as common in that
     part of the world as "Smith" is in English-speaking countries. And no
     firm conclusion had been made about their nationalities.

     The FBI agents even named the presumed masterminds behind the operation.
     A certain Mushtaq Altaf Bin-Khadri, who is in charge of finances and
     training for "Saif," allegedly dispatched the terrorist squad. But the
     FBI was not in a position to comment on the targets of the two men in
     Germany.

     One name came up time and again in the communique, and one that pricked
     the Germans' ears: Dawood Ibrahim. The 54-year-old arms trader is
     "India's most-wanted man." The US government has listed him as a "global
     terrorist" and persuaded the United Nations to place his name on a list
     of supporters of terror. Ibrahim is rumored to be the head of D-Company,
     a criminal syndicate named after himself, and is believed to be in
     charge of smuggling the suspected terrorists into Germany.

     Both the FBI and the BKA are attaching a lot of importance to the
     information in the FBI communique. But the intelligence services of the
     two countries -- the CIA in the United States and the BND and Office for
     the Protection of the Constitution in Germany, the country's foreign and
     domestic intelligence agencies, respectively -- point to internal
     contradictions as reasons for their skepticism. As they see it, for
     example, it is highly unlikely that a Shiite group would team up with
     Sunni terrorists, especially since a good part of al-Qaida propaganda
     vilifies Shiites. Other reasons for doubt include the facts that none of
     the intelligence agencies was previously familiar with an organization
     called "Saif," that there have been no previously recorded threats
     against Germany by Indian extremists, and that the whole scenario seems
     rather implausible.

     On the other hand, the FBI information is uncommonly concrete. In
     addition to the names of the suspects, it also provides information
     about the exact day on which they are supposed to arrive in the United
     Arab Emirates. Moreover, Ibrahim is believed to be one of the men behind
     the terror attacks in Mumbai. If he really is involved, that alone would
     be reason enough for worry.

     Abnormal Circumstances

     Under normal circumstances, a message of this kind from the United
     States would no doubt be cause for serious-minded scrutiny, but it would
     not be a cause for alarm. For example, the BKA would go through all
     recent visa applications, and federal police officers would take a
     closer look at all the people entering Germany from Arab states. And the
     intelligence services would make the rounds to see if any of its
     partners had any helpful information on the matter.

     Indeed, under normal circumstances, there are always a lot of these
     communiques, most of which turn out to be false alarms. But these are no
     normal circumstances. Germany is in a state of emergency. Other
     countries, such as the United States, employ a system of official
     warning levels based on color codes that change -- from yellow to
     orange, for example -- when the danger level is thought to increase.
     But, in Germany, the interior minister is the barometer: He consults
     with experts -- and then it is he who must call the shots.

     For the minister, a situation like this presents a dilemma. If he
     remains silent and something happens, he's a failure. If he makes loud
     warning and nothing happens, he's just a rabble-rouser trying to push
     through controversial tougher security laws. And, of course, the public
     never thanks you if everyday life continues in a normal, peaceful way.

     Absolute Security Remains a Pipe Dream

     When de Maiziere became Germany's interior minister, he had planned to
     lead the ministry in a level-headed way. For example, he prefers to use
     phrases such as "internal calm" rather than "internal security." And it
     was only six weeks ago that he uttered the sentence: "There's no cause
     for alarm." But, since then, the chorus of warning voices has only
     ballooned in size.

     This change in course is the combined result of everything that happened
     beforehand. It might very well turn out that the alleged Indian terror
     squad stays home and that the raid on the Reichstag never happens. But
     what will remain is a well-founded supposition that there is a critical
     mass of terrorists in the border region between Afghanistan and Pakistan
     that is thinking about launching attacks in Europe -- and certainly in
     Germany, as well.

     Raw Nerves

     Given such circumstances, there is a major sense of alarm among German
     officials. Last Thursday, just a day after de Maiziere's shocking press
     conference, the BKA issued a press release "in connection with the
     current high-risk situation." It reported that a piece of suspicious
     luggage had been discovered a day earlier in Windhoek, the capital of
     Namibia, before being loaded onto a plane bound for Germany. The laptop
     bag contained batteries, wires, a detonator and a clock -- in other
     words, all the ingredients you need for a potential airborne
     catastrophe.

     It sounded as if another terror plot had been foiled. Had there been a
     plan to blow up Air Berlin Flight 7377 en route to Munich? And had the
     authorities, yet again, discovered an explosive device at the last
     minute? In the end, all the worry was unfounded. As it turned out, the
     piece of luggage was a test device built by a company that designs "real
     test" suitcases to be used to test security measures. It remains unclear
     who checked the bag in. But the fact that the BKA was so quick to go
     into alarm mode -- and publicly so -- has been a communications debacle.

     Of course, these days, nobody wants to be the one that wasn't
     sufficiently circumspect, the one who took too long to speak up. No one
     wants a replay of situations like the one from the beginning of
     November, when de Maiziere didn't know for hours whether the package
     that had arrived at the Chancellery contained actual explosives or was
     just a false alarm. Now, the threshold for sounding the alarm is already
     much lower.

     Bonded by Fear

     Of course, you can never be too sure. Over the last 12 months, a series
     of attacks concocted in the Afghan-Pakistani border region have been
     foiled in the West. For example, in May, a car bomb set in New York's
     Times Square by a man with ties to the Pakistani Taliban failed to
     properly detonate. In Copenhagen, al-Qaida had made plans to storm the
     offices of the Jyllands-Posten newspaper as revenge for its 2005
     publishing of caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad. In October 2009,
     David Headley, an American citizen with Pakistani roots, was arrested
     after having already visited the newspaper's offices in order to scout
     them out before the planned attack. Other targets reportedly included
     the subway systems of New York City and Washington.

     On the other hand, absolute security is a pipe dream. For example,
     British authorities had even conducted rehearsals for how to respond to
     possible attacks. But, even so, when attacks claiming 56 lives
     (including those of four attackers) did strike London, on July 7, 2005,
     they were unable to prevent them. Likewise, US intelligence services had
     warned India a number of times that terrorists were planning attacks in
     Mumbai.

     The new situation in Germany has at least had one positive side effect:
     For the time being, the traditionally quarrelsome interior ministers
     from both the state and the federal levels have refrained from their
     usual bickering. Following informal talks held last Thursday in Hamburg,
     Minister Bruch of Rhineland-Palatinate noted that he had "never
     experienced such harmony within this group" that has apparently been
     bonded together by their shared fear.

     Translated from the German by Josh Ward

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-22 16:28:56</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1633021_discussion-germany-ct-the-story-behind-germany-s-terror.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1633032</id>
    <title>Tearline Ideas Re: DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's
 Terror Threat
</title>
    <description>   is there a tearline this week, anyway?

   On 11/22/10 10:50 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     Main problem is that Der Spiegel is just that good, they've at least
     touched on most of what I would want to say about it.  The main thing
     here is how the politics of a terror threat/alert coincide with the
     reality of the threat itself. 

     We saw that Germany was fairly relaxed bout the earlier threat in Europe
     released by the US.  I'm not sure if that was the same as the info that
     the FBI passed over about this shia group, Saif (I don't know anything
     about them).  But something changed, as we noted last week in their
     interpretation.  That seems to go down to this virtual walk-in.  The one
     thing I was left confused about is whether BKA had ever been in contact
     with this source before.  It sounds like he cold called them.  It's
     common knowledge that walk-ins, rather than recruits, are nearly always
     the best sources.  But at the same time, they are very suspicious as
     double agents.  If this was a US source they would be freaking the fuck
     out after having Al-Balawi turn on them.  The germans seem to have
     cooler heads, but they will be working 24/7 to verify the source (let me
     make another plug for John Lecarre's A Most Wanted Man here, most of his
     career was in Germany). 

     They've clearly got enough corroborating information that they consider
     this a real threat.  But politically they are faced with the universal
     'damned if you do, damned if you don't' alert problem.  If the Interior
     ministry doesn't say something, they will be liable if an attack
     occurs.  Look at the constant press over information on the warning
     intelligence for Mumbai.  As we've said before, simply issuing the
     warning may help to deter the attackers. 

     The real important bit here, is that it seems the germans have fairly
     good intelligence.  While this attack is still not happening tomorrow,
     they have a lot of details about what might be in the works, rather than
     a single-source intercept that indicates some vague threat.  It seems
     they've increased security pretty well at the Bundestag, and want to add
     to the presence at any possible target.  This is where we seem them
     scrambling, and where their intelligence holes are. 

     The task now for the germans is to verify this source.  Maybe even pick
     him up and put him on ice somewhere (Fred/Stick?), not in GErmany but in
     Pakistan/Afghanistan.  That will require some cooperation with
     either/both the Americans and Pakistanis.  They also need to verify all
     the bio information they have on these 4-6 guys trying to get into
     germany and watch travelers very carefully.  The germans seem to be very
     good at surveilling these threats within Germany, so their best luck may
     come when one of the guys overseas contacts a local already under
     surveillance. 

     At minimum, this could be a pretty interesting tearline this week.  Both
     the walk-in issues and the CIA/FBI liaison conflicts that I havne't
     gotten into here. 
     On 11/22/10 10:34 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

       Any thoughts on where you guys are thinking of going with this?

       Der Spiegel article is indeed interesting.

       On 11/22/10 9:28 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         Great report from Der Spiegel (thanks Mikey).  I suggest anyone
         interested to read the whole thing.  They ask the right questions,
         and while not as much detail as I hoped, give us a much better
         understanding on the threat in Germany. 

         The BKA (germany's FBI) must be extremely busy verifying the details
         of this virtual walk-in.  It obviously caused the germans to shit
         their pants.  But the real questions are buried in the article---how
         real was this plot, how real is the source, is the source just
         trying to get back to the land of brezeln and bier? Trying to
         double-cross them somehow?

         Also note the tip off from the FBI (cue fred), not the usual CIA
         liaison with BND. 

         For Eurasia, there's a lot in here on the internal politics of the
         interior minister position, and the relation between state and
         federal government. 

         On 11/22/10 8:55 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

           -------- Original Message --------

            Subject: [OS] GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat 
               Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 08:38:21 -0600                          
               From: Graham Smith &lt;graham.smith@stratfor.com&gt;                 
           Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                            
                 To: os@stratfor.com                                          

            11/22/2010 11:38 AM
           Fears of a Mumbai Redux
           The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat

           http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,730377,00.html
           By Matthias Bartsch, Yassin Musharbash and Holger Stark

           Germany is currently in a state of high alert. Security officials
           are warning that they have concrete information pointing to a
           possible terror attack on the federal parliament building in
           Berlin, a massively popular tourist attraction. The days of
           Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere's reserved stances in dealing
           with such warnings appear to be over.

           The call came from abroad, and the man speaking hurriedly on the
           other end of the line sounded as if he feared for his life. He
           wanted out, he told the officers of the German Federal Criminal
           Police Office (BKA) -- out of the terrorist scene. He wanted to
           come back to Germany, back to his family. Then he asked if German
           officials could help him.

           Right now, they're trying to do just that. The BKA is pursuing the
           case under the codename "Nova." The apparently remorseful man
           could be an important possible whistleblower from a dangerous
           region of the globe. In fact, he is also the most recent reason
           why German Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere put the entire
           country in a state of fright on Wednesday.

           During a hastily called press conference that day, de Maiziere
           stated that Germany faced the threat of terrorist attacks that
           might be launched against the country at some point in November.
           As he put it, Germany is "presently dealing with a new situation."
           Just two days earlier, the source had called for the third time in
           just a short period and provided more information. He told
           officials that a small group of terrorists wanted to conduct a
           raid on the Reichstag building in Berlin, which houses the federal
           parliament, and that that was only one of the targets included in
           their attack plans.

           Germany on High Alert

           Since then, Germany has been in a state of high alert. The
           Reichstag is surrounded with barricades and its popular cupola
           tourist attraction temporarily closed to visitors. Police armed
           with submachine guns are patrolling major railway stations and
           airports. And vacations have been called off for officials at the
           country's security agencies. Wherever they have cause for doing
           so, the authorities are secretly monitoring communications,
           conducting surveillance operations and launching undercover
           investigations. At the moment, investigators seem to be at a loss;
           their modus operandi: "We'll prod the shrubs and see if we can
           flush out any birds."

           "There is cause for worry, but no cause for hysteria," de Maiziere
           assured his listeners. But while he has never been much of an
           agitator, his colleagues at the state level have described the
           situation in much more drastic terms. Uwe Schu:nemann, for
           example, who has been the interior minister of the northwestern
           state of Lower Saxony since 2003, stated that he had "never
           experienced a heightened security situation like this one." And
           Berlin Senator for the Interior Ehrhart Ko:rting, whose position
           is tantamount to that of a government minister in the city-state,
           has already even gone so far as to call on the inhabitants of the
           German capital city to report suspicious-looking individuals of
           Arab origin to the police. "If you suddenly see three somewhat
           strange-looking men who are new to your neighborhood, who hide
           their faces and who only speak Arabic," Ko:rting said, "you should
           report them to the authorities."

           Under heightened pressure, officials in Germany's 16 federal
           states are now checking to see when and where major events are
           scheduled to take place this coming week within their boundaries.
           And nothing suggested as a possible target is being discounted, no
           matter how unlikely. For example, officials in
           Rhineland-Palatinate warned the state's interior minister, Karl
           Peter Burch, that there was always a lot going on at IKEA stores
           on Saturdays.[WTF]

           Serenity, Scaremongering and Strategy

           Since last week, German politicians at both the state and federal
           levels have once again had to figure out how they will handle
           themselves when making warnings about terrorist attacks. They have
           had to come up with a language that can simultaneously convey both
           an alert and a sense of calm.

           This is no easy task. For one thing, this isn't the first time
           this has happened. In September 2009, for example, right before
           federal elections were held, there were concrete threats that
           resulted in a heightened security situation. But, in the end,
           nothing happened. This time around, people are wondering whether
           they are on the precipice of an emergency or whether these are
           once again empty threats.

           Still, one thing is certain: For the time being, Germany has
           become a different country -- more nervous, more anxious, more
           agitated. And Germany's domestic security policies are being put
           to the test.

           When Interior Minister de Maiziere assumed his office in October
           2009 in conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel's government, he
           aimed to cool down the heated sense of alarm regularly fanned out
           by his predecessors. What's more, the man who had served as
           Merkel's chief of staff in Chancellery until being moved to the
           role of interior minister in her new government, was given the
           task of nurturing a more relaxed relationship between her party,
           the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and its new coalition
           partner, the business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP). In
           particular, it was his job to not draw out the long-standing
           conflict over domestic security policies with the Justice
           Ministry, which has been led since the 2009 election by Sabine
           Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, a member of the FDP. Indeed, Merkel
           feared that the quarrelsome FDP might try to capitalize on the
           issue to win over more voters, so she assigned de Maiziere to
           prevent that from happening.

           In fact, the plan was to repeat the same strategy that the CDU and
           its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), had
           used when they were in the so-called "grand coalition" with the
           center-left Social Democratic Party, between 2005 and 2009. At the
           time, they made a point of undermining the SPD by championing what
           had traditionally been the latter party's issues.

           A Game-Changer

           But now the game plan has changed. This November will drastically
           alter de Maiziere's understanding of his role in office. If he
           tries to return things to their previous state of calm, he's going
           to have a very tough time. In fact, it's much more likely that he
           will be a completely different interior minister.

           For a while now, de Maiziere's softer stance has prompted
           opposition by politicians on the right involved with domestic
           security issues. But they are now calling louder than ever for a
           tougher course to be followed. Merkel is also adjusting to the new
           situation and is reportedly happy with the way de Maiziere handled
           himself last week. Likewise, no one seems to have voiced any
           criticism last Thursday evening during a meeting of the Coalition
           Committee, a regular gathering of the parties that are part of the
           government.

           The almost complete lack of protest has a lot to do with where the
           alarming information is coming from. In fact, information
           regarding the supposedly imminent attacks has come from two
           independent sources. Shortly before receiving the telephone call
           about the planned attacks, BKA officials had received a cable from
           their American counterparts at the FBI, America's federal police
           force, warning of possible attacks.

           Still, what truth is there in these "security-related" pieces of
           information coming from both domestic and foreign sources? And,
           given all the discrepancies in the warning messages, just how much
           do they deserve to be trusted? Indeed, even among security
           officials themselves, there is some doubt about how legitimate
           these statements are -- and about just how acute the danger
           threatening Germany really is.

           An Attack Modelled after Mumbai[plot details in this section]
           What the caller reported was undeniably alarming. According to
           him, al-Qaida and associated groups based in Pakistan were making
           joint preparations for an attack in Germany. One idea was to
           remotely detonate a bomb using a mobile phone. Another called for
           a small group of terrorists to storm the Reichstag with guns
           blazing, take hostages and end everything in one calamitous
           bloodbath. Indeed, BKA officials learned that the latter plan had
           been modeled on the storming of luxury hotels in Mumbai, the
           Indian capital, almost exactly two years ago, in a massacre that
           left 175 people dead.

           According to the caller, the plan called for the terrorists to
           procure the submachine guns, automatic rifles, explosives and
           whatever else they would need to storm Germany's parliament
           building in the Balkans. He said that two men had already traveled
           to Germany six to eight weeks earlier, adding that one had the nom
           de guerre of "Abu Mohammed" and that the other one was a German of
           Turkish origin. Both apparently had roots in the Greater Berlin
           metropolitan area, were currently unemployed and living off of
           welfare payments and had immersed themselves in the anonymity
           provided by a major city -- until the time should come for their
           activation.

           Likewise, there were allegedly four other volunteers -- including
           a German, a Turk, a North African and another jihadist of unknown
           identity -- in the training camps run by al-Qaida and related
           groups waiting for the signal to travel to Germany. And, according
           to the telephone source, al-Qaida's plan was to attack in February
           or March.
           The only question now relates to just how credible the caller's
           statements are. He is an insider who joined up with armed groups
           several months ago and has earned a reputation as a fanatic
           fighter.
           But could it be that he is only trying to tell German officials
           the juiciest things possible in order to raise his own market
           value and thereby prompt them to extract him from the terror
           scene? Or could it be that al-Qaida is even planning a second
           spectacular coup like the one in December 2009, when the Americans
           allowed a supposedly top-level turncoat onto an American military
           base without any sort of pat-down, who went on to detonate his
           explosive vest and blow seven CIA officials to bits?

           A Strange Message

           A clear picture has yet to emerge. And one reason for this is also
           the fact that it was only two weeks ago that the FBI first decided
           to share information about another possible attack with German
           officials.

           In this case, even the way contact was made was unusual. Under
           normal circumstances, liaisons from the CIA station in Germany are
           the ones to communicate American warnings to their German
           counterparts. But, this time around, it was an apparently
           particularly anxious FBI that chose to directly notify the BKA.
           The FBI told the Germans about an obscure Indian group called
           "Saif," or "sword." Despite being a Shiite group, it had allegedly
           made a pact with al-Qaida, a Sunni organization, and sent five of
           its men to the Pakistani province of Waziristan for training.
           According to the FBI, two volunteers -- who were already equipped
           with visas allowing them to travel freely within the 25 European
           countries belonging to the Schengen zone -- were supposedly
           already en route to Germany and would enter the United Arab
           Emirates on Monday, Nov. 22. There, they would allegedly be
           provided with new travel documents before traveling on to Germany.
           One of the men is supposedly named "Khan," which is about as
           common in that part of the world as "Smith" is in English-speaking
           countries. And no firm conclusion had been made about their
           nationalities.

           The FBI agents even named the presumed masterminds behind the
           operation. A certain Mushtaq Altaf Bin-Khadri, who is in charge of
           finances and training for "Saif," allegedly dispatched the
           terrorist squad. But the FBI was not in a position to comment on
           the targets of the two men in Germany.

           One name came up time and again in the communique, and one that
           pricked the Germans' ears: Dawood Ibrahim. The 54-year-old arms
           trader is "India's most-wanted man." The US government has listed
           him as a "global terrorist" and persuaded the United Nations to
           place his name on a list of supporters of terror. Ibrahim is
           rumored to be the head of D-Company, a criminal syndicate named
           after himself, and is believed to be in charge of smuggling the
           suspected terrorists into Germany.

           Both the FBI and the BKA are attaching a lot of importance to the
           information in the FBI communique. But the intelligence services
           of the two countries -- the CIA in the United States and the BND
           and Office for the Protection of the Constitution in Germany, the
           country's foreign and domestic intelligence agencies, respectively
           -- point to internal contradictions as reasons for their
           skepticism. As they see it, for example, it is highly unlikely
           that a Shiite group would team up with Sunni terrorists,
           especially since a good part of al-Qaida propaganda vilifies
           Shiites. Other reasons for doubt include the facts that none of
           the intelligence agencies was previously familiar with an
           organization called "Saif," that there have been no previously
           recorded threats against Germany by Indian extremists, and that
           the whole scenario seems rather implausible.

           On the other hand, the FBI information is uncommonly concrete. In
           addition to the names of the suspects, it also provides
           information about the exact day on which they are supposed to
           arrive in the United Arab Emirates. Moreover, Ibrahim is believed
           to be one of the men behind the terror attacks in Mumbai. If he
           really is involved, that alone would be reason enough for worry.

           Abnormal Circumstances

           Under normal circumstances, a message of this kind from the United
           States would no doubt be cause for serious-minded scrutiny, but it
           would not be a cause for alarm. For example, the BKA would go
           through all recent visa applications, and federal police officers
           would take a closer look at all the people entering Germany from
           Arab states. And the intelligence services would make the rounds
           to see if any of its partners had any helpful information on the
           matter.

           Indeed, under normal circumstances, there are always a lot of
           these communiques, most of which turn out to be false alarms. But
           these are no normal circumstances. Germany is in a state of
           emergency. Other countries, such as the United States, employ a
           system of official warning levels based on color codes that change
           -- from yellow to orange, for example -- when the danger level is
           thought to increase. But, in Germany, the interior minister is the
           barometer: He consults with experts -- and then it is he who must
           call the shots.

           For the minister, a situation like this presents a dilemma. If he
           remains silent and something happens, he's a failure. If he makes
           loud warning and nothing happens, he's just a rabble-rouser trying
           to push through controversial tougher security laws. And, of
           course, the public never thanks you if everyday life continues in
           a normal, peaceful way.

           Absolute Security Remains a Pipe Dream

           When de Maiziere became Germany's interior minister, he had
           planned to lead the ministry in a level-headed way. For example,
           he prefers to use phrases such as "internal calm" rather than
           "internal security." And it was only six weeks ago that he uttered
           the sentence: "There's no cause for alarm." But, since then, the
           chorus of warning voices has only ballooned in size.

           This change in course is the combined result of everything that
           happened beforehand. It might very well turn out that the alleged
           Indian terror squad stays home and that the raid on the Reichstag
           never happens. But what will remain is a well-founded supposition
           that there is a critical mass of terrorists in the border region
           between Afghanistan and Pakistan that is thinking about launching
           attacks in Europe -- and certainly in Germany, as well.

           Raw Nerves

           Given such circumstances, there is a major sense of alarm among
           German officials. Last Thursday, just a day after de Maiziere's
           shocking press conference, the BKA issued a press release "in
           connection with the current high-risk situation." It reported that
           a piece of suspicious luggage had been discovered a day earlier in
           Windhoek, the capital of Namibia, before being loaded onto a plane
           bound for Germany. The laptop bag contained batteries, wires, a
           detonator and a clock -- in other words, all the ingredients you
           need for a potential airborne catastrophe.

           It sounded as if another terror plot had been foiled. Had there
           been a plan to blow up Air Berlin Flight 7377 en route to Munich?
           And had the authorities, yet again, discovered an explosive device
           at the last minute? In the end, all the worry was unfounded. As it
           turned out, the piece of luggage was a test device built by a
           company that designs "real test" suitcases to be used to test
           security measures. It remains unclear who checked the bag in. But
           the fact that the BKA was so quick to go into alarm mode -- and
           publicly so -- has been a communications debacle.

           Of course, these days, nobody wants to be the one that wasn't
           sufficiently circumspect, the one who took too long to speak up.
           No one wants a replay of situations like the one from the
           beginning of November, when de Maiziere didn't know for hours
           whether the package that had arrived at the Chancellery contained
           actual explosives or was just a false alarm. Now, the threshold
           for sounding the alarm is already much lower.

           Bonded by Fear

           Of course, you can never be too sure. Over the last 12 months, a
           series of attacks concocted in the Afghan-Pakistani border region
           have been foiled in the West. For example, in May, a car bomb set
           in New York's Times Square by a man with ties to the Pakistani
           Taliban failed to properly detonate. In Copenhagen, al-Qaida had
           made plans to storm the offices of the Jyllands-Posten newspaper
           as revenge for its 2005 publishing of caricatures of the Prophet
           Muhammad. In October 2009, David Headley, an American citizen with
           Pakistani roots, was arrested after having already visited the
           newspaper's offices in order to scout them out before the planned
           attack. Other targets reportedly included the subway systems of
           New York City and Washington.

           On the other hand, absolute security is a pipe dream. For example,
           British authorities had even conducted rehearsals for how to
           respond to possible attacks. But, even so, when attacks claiming
           56 lives (including those of four attackers) did strike London, on
           July 7, 2005, they were unable to prevent them. Likewise, US
           intelligence services had warned India a number of times that
           terrorists were planning attacks in Mumbai.

           The new situation in Germany has at least had one positive side
           effect: For the time being, the traditionally quarrelsome interior
           ministers from both the state and the federal levels have
           refrained from their usual bickering. Following informal talks
           held last Thursday in Hamburg, Minister Bruch of
           Rhineland-Palatinate noted that he had "never experienced such
           harmony within this group" that has apparently been bonded
           together by their shared fear.

           Translated from the German by Josh Ward

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

       --

       - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

       Marko Papic

       Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

       STRATFOR

       700 Lavaca Street - 900

       Austin, Texas

       78701 USA

       P: + 1-512-744-4094

       marko.papic@stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-22 17:52:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1633032_tearline-ideas-re-discussion-germany-ct-the-story-behind.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>andrew.damon@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1633932</id>
    <title>Re: Assange is off the hook...
</title>
    <description>   Also dude... on a note of hilarity... imagine what would happen if people
   could no longer leak or publish leaks... The entire government would stop
   working. "Leaking" is how shit gets done.

   Don't be mad at the "method", be mad at this douche.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 11:48:48 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   like jogging.......

   ?????

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 12:47:05 AM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   Yeah but my point was that the common folk are not outraged except at
   Assange. He wanted people to be outraged at the government. Nobody is, in
   fact most people think the diplomats are doing their job. That's a change
   considering what low opinion most people have of diplomats.

   And as for my comment about wikileaks, I was being far more philosophical
   than the question of whether it is illegal or not. From time to time, you
   got to leak some stuff... it's just the way it is. It's good for the
   country. Doesn't feel nice, but it's good. Like jogging.

   But my overall point here is that Assange is just an anti-American prick
   who things he is going to leak some stuff that leaves the American people
   outraged. What an idiot. As Stewart said the other night, this is the
   country that sold weapons to Iran so that we can fund right-wing
   guerrillas in Central America. And this idiot thought we would be outraged
   by someone calling Merkel "risk-averse".

   He is a fucking idiot.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 11:42:17 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   Queensland= Aussie Texas.  Y'all have an attitude that Alabamans don't. 

   Last I saw Assange was charged with sexual assault, not rape.  That's
   different in the US, obviously, but no idea about Sweden. 

   And Marko, I beg to differ.  The leaks are wrong.  Are they seriously
   damaging? No, but that doesn't make it OK.  Serious laws were violated
   here, and the only reason they have some freedom of movement is because
   Wikileaks (presumably) is not state-sponsored and claim to be some sort of
   journalism.  But that is BS, these documents were stolen and published
   illegally.  We can go into the whole argument of overclassification- and
   be right to say that most of this stuff should no longer be classified. 
   That does not change the fact that the documents were classified.  Some
   sort of civil disobedience is not going to change the USG's culture of
   secrecy.  That idea by Assange is just ludicrous.  This is just an
   NGO-version of espionage and everyone involved should be arrested and
   tried accordingly (and disrupted if we can't get them to court).

   What Matt said about a large number of the American right being pretty
   pissed off about these is also true.  Assange has been called a terrorist
   many times, I think Palin wanted to hunt him down.   

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Meredith Friedman" &lt;mfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 12:21:43 AM
   Subject: RE: Assange is off the hook...

   The Landsdowne Hotel and the pub crawls...but I totally agree with your
   view on Queensland!!

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Chris Farnham
   Sent: Sunday, December 05, 2010 11:17 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...
   Oh the teaching is still first rate and turned me in to the intellectual
   Adonis that I am. Was just that the majority of the company there sucked.
   Nestled between Glebe and Newtown since their gentrification hasn't
   helped, I don't think. Thank god for the Landsdowne Hotel!!

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Meredith Friedman" &lt;mfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 1:09:42 PM
   Subject: RE: Assange is off the hook...

   I am a proud alumnus of Sydney Uni thank you very much. But it was much
   better back then....

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Chris Farnham
   Sent: Sunday, December 05, 2010 11:07 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...
   If you think you're going to get any argument out of me on Usyd you're
   going to be disappointed. 
   The place was full of left wing socialist wankers or college boy, Aviator
   wearing, popped collar rich kids. 
   Going to hazard a guess that Assange may also have studied there as well.
   Queensland is Australia's version of Alabama, only with better beaches. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "George Friedman" &lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 12:53:55 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   It is possible to revoke citizenship on the grounds of being a dickhead
   except in Australia, where all of Queensland and a good part of South
   Australia, along with all of Sydney Uni would lose their passports.

   On 12/05/10 22:42 , Chris Farnham wrote:

     Is it possible to revoke some one's citizenship on the grounds of them
     being a total dickhead? 
     I don't care about the other leaks but the ones he has made that
     potentially damage Australian interests upset me. 
     If I thought I could switch this dickhead off without getting done I
     don't think I'd have too much of a problem.
     BTW, close family friend in Sweden who knows the girl that is pressing
     charges tells me that there is absolutely nothing behind it other than
     prosecutors that are looking to make a name for themselves. My friend
     speaks rather disparagingly about the girl who is claiming molestation.
     I also think the whole rape thing is incorrect for if I remember
     correctly rape was never the charge. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 12:23:03 PM
     Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

     What a douche.

     And I just want to be clear here... I have no problem with the leaks. I
     think they're great. And I think it may be good on some level to have
     stuff like this come out once in a while. What I can't stand is A) his
     ego trip and B) his clear anti-Americanism. Take the time to read the
     intro to Cablegate when you get the chance. This guy hates America more
     than OBL.

     What I love, however, is how nobody in the U.S. is mad about the cables.
     Hell, I have a better opinion of State Department diplomats now than I
     did before the cables. They actually said a few smart things here and
     there. I actually gave them a tip of my hat.

     I want to see him try to take on the Russians. He'd be going bald in an
     Iceland hospital within days.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 10:11:39 PM
     Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

     should we change our Stratfor motto now?
     Predictive, insightful intelligence...in a post-Cablegate world.
     On Dec 5, 2010, at 10:05 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

       This guy needs to take pills for his ego:

      He suggested, not for the first time, that he believes his document
      service has had a profound effect on world history: a**I believe
      geopolitics will be separated into pre- and post-Cablegate phases.a**

       Also, I have a question about this part (this is Assange's lawyer
       saying how Wikileaks would release full versions of all files --
       including names of spies, etc. -- if harmed):

      WikiLeaks, Mr. Stephens said, has a**been subject to cyberattacks and
      censorship around the world and they need to protect themselves ... This
      is what they believe to be a thermonuclear device in the information
      age.a**

       Let's say the following scenario happens. Assange is arrested and
       extradicted to Sweden to face rape charges. Wikileaks releases the
       password to the insurance files. Would he not then be directly
       endangering U.S. and other country intelligence professionals? Would
       it not then be possible to prosecute him for espionage? 

       -- 
       - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
       Marko Papic
       Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
       STRATFOR
       700 Lavaca Street - 900
       Austin, Texas
       78701 USA
       P: + 1-512-744-4094
       marko.papic@stratfor.com

     --
     Marko Papic

     STRATFOR Analyst
     C: + 1-512-905-3091
     marko.papic@stratfor.com

     --

     Chris Farnham
     Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
     China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
     Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

   --

   George Friedman

   Founder and CEO

   Stratfor

   700 Lavaca Street

   Suite 900

   Austin, Texas 78701

   Phone  512-744-4319

   Fax  512-744-4334

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   Office: +1 512-279-9479
   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   Office: +1 512-279-9479
   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-06 07:05:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 03:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1633932_re-assange-is-off-the-hook-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1634002</id>
    <title>BUDGET- Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks Survival
</title>
    <description>   Discussing the impact of Assange's arrest.

   600 words
   Will be out within a few minutes of our Tactical meeting.  Depends how
   long that runs. 
   Hopefully before the 9am Annual. 
   On 12/7/10 7:54 AM, scott stewart wrote:

     Let's do it.

      

     From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Sean Noonan
     Sent: Tuesday, December 07, 2010 8:49 AM
     To: Analyst List
     Subject: PROPOSAL- Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks Survival

      

     Title: Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks Survival

     Type: 3- When I woke up at 5, there was no one saying anything on this. 
     I haven't checked but I'm guessing we are still way ahead of in
     providing analysis of what Assange's arrest will do to him/the
     organization

     Thesis: Assange was arrested in Britain December 7.  WikiLeaks is a new
     organization with one leader that has not institutionalized.  Assange's
     arest will test its ability to maintain itself as an institution--but
     that won't stop the current set of documents. 

     600 words

     Current Discussion:

      

     London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and
     public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7.  He is due to
     appear in a court in Westminster soon to face charges of rape, accused
     by two woman in Sweden.  Charges of sexual assault rarely are passed
     through Interpol red notices, like this case, so this is no doubt about
     trying to disrupt WikiLeaks release of government documents.  While it's
     possible that Assange's arrest could disrupt the long-term viability of
     WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release of cables in the short-term and
     governments will now be concerned about what the organization may
     release in revenge.

      

     Leadership is extremely important in non-governmental organizations that
     have not institutionalized.  From terrorist grous  to charities [LINK:
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090923_death_top_indonesian_militant],
     these organizations often ebb and flow along with their founders. 
     WikiLeaks is a new organization that has a created a novel method for an
     old practice- leaking confidential government information in an attempt
     to influence politics.  Leaking will not go away with Assange's arrest,
     but WikiLeaks might.

      

     WikiLeaks created itself with Assange as the only public face-- he leads
     supports, drives donations, and faces criticism.  This has made many in
     the organization unhappy, and some have left it after disagreeing with
     him.  If Assange were to face charges in Sweden for sexual assault or
     new charges in the UK or US and was found guilty, WikiLeaks would still
     need someone to operate it.  Assange may have someone waiting in the
     wings, but that is not evident.

      

     WikiLeaks has also suffered logistically and as a brand.  As national
     governments put pressure on its infrastructure, its websites have been
     shut and most importantly its main source of funding- PayPal- has closed
     WikiLeaks account.  With such pressure and government monitoring, future
     leakers may be too afraid of getting intercepted and go elsewhere. 
     Moreover, this new set of documents have not worked out like Assange
     expected- the public is not angry at the State Department, but many are
     angry at Assange and his organization.

      

     Assange's arrest won't stop the continued leaks of this large batch of
     US State Department cables.  It also won't shut down WikiLeaks, which
     still maintains its website and the ability to collect information from
     leakers.  So in the short-term, WikiLeaks will maintain.  The question
     remains if it has created a truly sustainable institutions-- one where
     leaders are replacable, members can adapt to changing circumstance, and
     representatives can aid and inspire new leakers.

      

     If Asange is extradited to Sweden and tried of one count of unlawful
     coercion, two counts of sexual molestation and one count of rape, will
     he be able to maintain WikiLeaks image?  That is hard to say, but
     growing public criticism of him indicates his inability to grow
     WikiLeaks support base.  Western govrenments also fear whatever is
     contained in his ___ file, for which he threatens to release an
     encryption key if something happens to him.  WikiLeaks has already
     released its most damaging documents-- its attempt to get public
     attention-- and they haven't amounted to much.  This new file likely
     contains no more damaging information, but instead is full of names. 
     The names of sources who will be at risk and those of diplomats,
     military or intelligence officers who could lose their jobs.

      

     WikiLeaks is now facing a conundrum that all new organizations do--the
     ability to maintain and transition leadership through adverse
     circumstances.  Maybe Assange will be released quickly-- STRATFOR cannot
     speak to the veracity of the charges against him-- but if he isn't,
     WikiLeaks will struggle to survive.

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 15:06:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1634002_budget-assange-arrest-and-wikileaks-survival-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1634009</id>
    <title>Re: FOR EDIT- Assange Arrest
</title>
    <description>   Visa now blocking wikileaks too:
   http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/technology/2010-12-07-visa-wikileaks_N.htm

   On 12/7/10 9:15 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     *thanks to all for the very helpful comments. 

     Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks Survival

     Display: the Douchiest picture of Assange possible.  

      

     Summary:

     WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange was arrested in Britain December 7,
     following an Interpol Red Notice based on a Swedish warrant.  WikiLeaks
     is a new organization with one leader that has not institutionalized.
      Assange's arrest will test its ability to maintain itself as an
     institution, but the concept of leaking documents on the internet will
     continue.  

      

     Analysis:

     London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and
     public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7 when he turned
     himself in.  He is due to appear in a court in Westminster soon to face
     a hearing over charges against him in Sweden, and possible extradition.
      There is considerable interest in what this can mean for his
     organization.  While it's possible that Assange's arrest could disrupt
     the long-term viability of WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release of
     cables in the short-term and will not stop similar future leaks via the
     internet.

      

     Leadership can be extremely important in non-governmental organizations
     that have not institutionalized.  From &lt;terrorist groups&gt; [LINK:
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090923_death_top_indonesian_militant]
     to charities, new organizations often ebb and flow along with their
     founders.  WikiLeaks organized a new method for an old practice- leaking
     confidential government information in an attempt to influence politics.

      

     Assange created WikiLeaks with himself as the only public face-- he
     leads supporters, drives donations, gives interviews and faces
     criticism. There have been reports of internal dissent and tensions, and
     in one interview with CNN, discussion of the organizations internal
     politics seemed to touch a nerve with Assange.  If Assange were to face
     charges in Sweden for sexual assault or new charges in the UK or US and
     was found guilty, WikiLeaks would still need someone to operate it.
      Assange may have someone waiting in the wings, but that is not evident.

      

     WikiLeaks has also suffered logistically.  As national governments put
     pressure on its infrastructure, its websites have been shut down and
     most importantly a major source of funding, PayPal, has closed
     WikiLeaks' account (Mastercard has also banned payments from its card to
     WikiLeaks). It is also not clear whether the events of the last few
     months will encourage or deter other potential leakers from approaching
     Wikileaks as opposed to other organizations (especially if they dislike
     or disagree with Assange.  Moreover, this new set of documents have not
     worked out like Assange expected- the U.S. public is not angry at the
     State Department, but many are angry at Assange and his organization.
     [LINK:
     http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical_diary/20101206_geopolitics_continue_despite_wikileaks]

     Immediately following Assange's arrest, WikiLeaks spokesperson Kristinn
     Hrafnsson said that it would not stop the group's operations. Indeed,
     whether Assange remains behind bars or not, it most likely will not stop
     the continued leaks of this large batch of US State Department cables.
      It also will not shut down WikiLeaks, which still maintains its website
     (albeit currently on a Swiss server, after its initial site's were
     deactivated) and the ability to collect information from leakers.  So in
     the short-term, WikiLeaks will continue.  The question remains if
     Assange created a truly sustainable institution-- one where leaders are
     replaceable, members can adapt to changing circumstance, and
     representatives can aid and inspire new leakers.  Will leakers continue
     to go to the, or choose other organizations?

      

     If Assange is extradited to Sweden and tried of one count of unlawful
     coercion, two counts of sexual molestation and one count of rape, the
     question is how much WikiLeaks image will be damaged.  He may try to use
     prison time- especially before trial- to develop his image as a martyr,
     but this can always backfire.  If WikiLeaks, however, is not tied to his
     image, it will be much more sustainable as an organization.  

      

     Western governments also fear whatever is contained in his "insurance"
     file, for which he threatens to release an encryption key if something
     happens to him.  The file was released across the internet and has been
     downloaded by countless number of people.  What it contains is still
     secret, but WikiLeaks may have threatened the US government and others
     with clues to its contents.  WikiLeaks has likely already released its
     most damaging documents in an attempt to get public attention.  This new
     file then probably does not contain higher-level secret information, but
     instead may be full of names.  Those names being sources who will be at
     risk and those of diplomats, military or intelligence officers who could
     lose their jobs or even lives.  These people who could be adversely
     affected by the release of the insurance file also pose another
     conundrum for wikileaks. Exposing them and impacting them in a
     vindictive manner could further tarnish Assange and Wikileaks in the
     eyes of the international public, to include potential financial and
     information contributors.  

      

     WikiLeaks is now facing a conundrum that all new organizations do--the
     ability to maintain and transition leadership through adverse
     circumstances.  Maybe Assange will be released quickly-- STRATFOR cannot
     speak to the veracity of the charges against him-- but if he isn't,
     WikiLeaks survival is brought into question.  But even if WikiLeaks
     disappears, the organizational concept will still continue, and leaks
     along with it.  WikiLeaks has only demonstrated the ability new
     technology has created to transfer such large quantities of documents,
     and there is no reason other organizations will not make use of the same
     technology.  

      

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 16:40:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1634009_re-for-edit-assange-arrest-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1634202</id>
    <title>Re: USE ME Re: Discussion- Assange Arrested
</title>
    <description>   If we decide to publish on this, I could probably benefit from a close
   read through from one or more of you.=C2=A0 I'm not sure my thoughts are
   coming across clearly.=C2=A0

   On 12/7/10 7:43 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     *Here's my full set of thoughts.=C2=A0 This may be a little too informal
     for our regular articles.=C2=A0 Hopefully this addresses the questions
     that have already come up.=C2=A0

     London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and
     public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7.=C2=A0 He = is
     due to appear in a court in Westminster soon to face charges of rape,
     accused by two woman in Sweden.=C2=A0 Charges of sexual assault rarely
     are passed through Interpol red notices, like this case, so this is no
     doubt about trying to disrupt WikiLeaks release of government
     documents.=C2=A0 While it's possible that Assange's arrest could disrupt
     the long-term viability of WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release of
     cables in the short-term and governments will now be concerned about
     what the organization may release in revenge.

     Leadership is extremely important in non-governmental organizations that
     have not institutionalized.=C2=A0 From terrorist grous=C2=A0 to
     charities [LINK:
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090923_death_top_indonesian_militant&lt;/=
     a&gt;], these organizations often ebb and flow along with their
     founders.=C2= =A0 WikiLeaks is a new organization that has a created a
     novel method for an old practice- leaking confidential government
     information in an attempt to influence politics.=C2=A0 Leaking will not
     go away with Assange's arrest, but WikiLeaks might.=C2=A0

     WikiLeaks created itself with Assange as the only public face-- he leads
     supports, drives donations, and faces criticism.=C2=A0 This has made
     many in the organization unhappy, and some have left it after
     disagreeing with him.=C2=A0 If Assange were to face charges in Sweden
     for sexual assault or new charges in the UK or US and was found guilty,
     WikiLeaks would still need someone to operate it.=C2=A0 Assan= ge may
     have someone waiting in the wings, but that is not evident.=C2=A0=

     WikiLeaks has also suffered logistically and as a brand.=C2=A0 As
     national governments put pressure on its infrastructure, its websites
     have been shut and most importantly its main source of funding- PayPal-
     has closed WikiLeaks account.=C2=A0 With such pressu= re and government
     monitoring, future leakers may be too afraid of getting intercepted and
     go elsewhere.=C2=A0 Moreover, this new set of documents have not worked
     out like Assange expected- the public is not angry at the State
     Department, but many are angry at Assange and his organization.=C2=A0

     Assange's arrest won't stop the continued leaks of this large batch of
     US State Department cables.=C2=A0 It also won't shut down WikiLeaks,
     which still maintains its website and the ability to collect information
     from leakers.=C2=A0 So in the short-term, WikiLea= ks will
     maintain.=C2=A0 The question remains if it has created a truly
     sustainable institutions-- one where leaders are replacable, members can
     adapt to changing circumstance, and representatives can aid and inspire
     new leakers.=C2=A0

     If Asange is extradited to Sweden and tried of one count of unlawful
     coercion, two counts of sexual molestation and one count of rape, will
     he be able to maintain WikiLeaks image?=C2=A0 That is hard to say, but
     growing public criticism of him indicates his inability to grow
     WikiLeaks support base.=C2=A0 Western govrenments also fear whatever is
     contained in his ___ file, for which he threatens to release an
     encryption key if something happens to him.=C2=A0 WikiLeaks has already
     released its most damaging documents= -- its attempt to get public
     attention-- and they haven't amounted to much.=C2=A0 This new file
     likely contains no more damaging informatio= n, but instead is full of
     names.=C2=A0 The names of sources who will be = at risk and those of
     diplomats, military or intelligence officers who could lose their
     jobs.=C2=A0

     WikiLeaks is now facing a conundrum that all new organizations do--the
     ability to maintain and transition leadership through adverse
     circumstances.=C2=A0 Maybe Assange will be released quickly-- STRATFOR
     cannot speak to the veracity of the charges against him-- but if he
     isn't, WikiLeaks will struggle to survive.=C2=A0

     On 12/7/10 6:36 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

       I would imagine the most politically "exciting" stuff has been
       published (much of which we already knew) but some of the less sexy
       things may be more damaging when released or released uncensored b/c
       it burns sources and people's careers (a few people have already lost
       their jobs in western countries...what about sources in less
       democratic countries)

       On 12/7/10 5:18 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

         I am not clear about your argument in the last line. Why this arrest
         could disrupt long-term viability of Wikileaks? I would say the
         opposite, that there might be short-term disruptions (latest release
         was two days ago) but Wikileaks will work in the long-term. They
         already have over 250K documents and if they release them at the
         same pace, Wikileaks will have very long-term viability. Also, Ben's
         point below about possibly backed up documents is worth
         considering.=C2=A0
         One more question. How do we now that Wikileaks has more sensitive
         information that governments should be concerned about as a revenge?
         Recall George's initial argument that they probably published most
         sensitive information at the very beginning to draw attention.=C2=A0

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@st= ratfor.com&gt;
         To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor= .com&gt;
         Sent: Tuesday, December 7, 2010 12:42:49 PM
         Subject: Discussion- Assange Arrested

         We had the discussion below on Friday when it was first suggested
         that Assange would be arrested.=C2=A0 Here's a bit more:

         London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and
         public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7.=C2=A0 He is
         due to appear in a court in Westminster soon to face charges of
         rape, accused by two woman in Sweden.=C2=A0 Charges of sexual
         assault rarely are passed through Interpol red notices, like this
         case, so this is no doubt about trying to disrupt WikiLeaks release
         of government documents.=C2=A0 While it's possible that Assange's
         arrest could disrupt the long-term viability of WikiLeaks, it will
         not stop the release of cables in the short-term and governments
         will now be concerned about what the organization may release in
         revenge.

         see discussion below.=C2=A0 (revenge =3D that encrypted 'security'
         file)

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@= stratfor.com&gt;
         To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratf= or.com&gt;
         Sent: Friday, December 3, 2010 10:23:51 AM
         Subject: Re: [OS] UK/US/AUSTRALIA/CT- WikiLeaks back online, Assange
         close=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2= =A0=C2=A0=C2=A0to arrest

         yes, most likely would not stop these.=C2=A0 but it could disrupt
         whatever might be next.=C2=A0

         Also all this trouble with internet hosting could serve to slow down
         this set of leaks.=C2=A0 And maybe a combination of wikileaks arrest
         and server shutdowns could stop it.=C2=A0
         On 12/3/10 9:20 AM, Ben West wrote:

           If Assange is running the show and his staff isn't as confident as
           he is, then arresting him now could very well stop the flow of
           cables. But all it takes is one person to keep it going - or just
           dump them all at once if it gets too dicey, and these files have
           been very widely distributed so far. I can't imagine anyone
           reclaiming all the documents now.

           On 12/3/2010 8:54 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

             yeah also remember there was an article by nytimes i think that
             alot of people on his staff were uncomfortable with the way
             things were playing out, so without him there they may loose
             nerve or come to their better senses

             On 12/3/10 8:48 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

               Yes, like Fred's source pointed out--arrest and trial would
               just be a political circus.=C2=A0 It would probably not
               disrupt wikileaks.=C2=A0 BUT, occasonally a leader makes an
               organization, and maybe no one as capable will be willing to
               fill his shoes.=C2=A0 Or at least, won't be able to get = as
               much pubilicity for wikileaks.=C2=A0 As you also said, it
               could tarnish both Assange's and Wikileaks' repution.=C2=A0
               That coul dserve to discredit and undermine the group.=C2=A0
               Maybe peop= le would be less inclined to leak to it, or the
               public would be less inclined to pay attention--or more
               importantly support wikileaks financially.=C2=A0 Though I
               admit the chance of this causing the public to pay less
               attention is minimal, and in fact would probably increase
               attention on the guy.=C2=A0

               (though personally, getting a rapist off the street is getting
               a rapist off the street.=C2=A0 Also, his mom owns a puppet
               theater...)

               On 12/3/10 8:38 AM, Ben West wrote:

                 What would the overall significance of his arrest be? It's
                 likely that the files are backed up elsewhere and that
                 someone else could give the go-ahead for releasing them
                 (that could very well already be the case) and if his
                 back-ups are anything like Assange, they would welcome the
                 publicity that would come to them by filling his shoes.

                 If the British got custody of him, they could conduct
                 searches or evidence that would support rape charges and, if
                 they happened to find material regarding the leaks, that
                 could lead to new charges. But this has been coming for a
                 while, and if Assange was smart, he would have turned over
                 any really sensitive stuff by now, which would decrease the
                 likelihood of police finding anything juicy.

                 Seems to me that all this really does is tarnish his
                 reputation and make him look like scum. It provides some
                 public distraction from all the leaked documents, but
                 doesn't undermine their impact - just undermines the
                 character of the person who facilitated the leaks.

                 any other thoughts?

                 On 12/3/2010 7:40 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                   I may have sent this out before- Assange walking out of a
                   CNN interview.

                   http://www.youtube.com/watc= h?v=3DLisa9XTRLb4

                   just shows how far his head is up his ass.=C2= =A0
                   On 12/3/10 7:32 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                     looks like Assange is in the UK and they might actually
                     roll on him.

                     On 12/3/10 7:31 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                       *OG source
                       Net closes on Assange: arrest by British police
                       expected in days
                       By Mark Hughes and Jerome Taylor
                       Friday, 3 December 2010
                       http://www.independent.co=
                       .uk/news/uk/home-news/net-closes-on-assange-arrest-by-british-police-expect=
                       ed-in-days-2149805.html

                       Julian Assange, the WikiLeaks founder, is expected to
                       be arrested in the coming days after Swedish
                       prosecutors filed a new warrant with British
                       authorities.

                       The Independent revealed yesterday that a procedural
                       error with the European Arrest Warrant had delayed the
                       arrest of the 39-year-old Australian, who is wanted in
                       Sweden over sexual allegations but has been in England
                       since October.

                       Police in Gothenburg claim they have now submitted a
                       fresh warrant to the Serious Organised Crime Agency.
                       Soca is expected to instruct Scotland Yard to arrest
                       Mr Assange and have him appear before an extradition
                       hearing =E2=80=93 although as of = last night the
                       Metropolitan Police had yet to receive the warrant.

                       Police sources have previously said that they received
                       a letter from Mr Assange's UK-based lawyer, Mark
                       Stephens, containing information about how to contact
                       Mr Assange should they need to.

                       Details of the new arrest warrant came as a last-ditch
                       attempt to have the allegations against Mr Assange
                       dropped failed. Sweden's highest court upheld the
                       arrest order and refused to let him appeal against a
                       lower court's ruling.

                       Last night, Mr Assange's family spoke of their fears
                       for his safety after increasingly shrill statements
                       from American commentators who have called for his
                       assassination. His mother, Christine Assange, said
                       "the forces that he's challenging are too big".

                       The arrest warrant filed with Soca states that he was
                       wanted on suspicion of rape, sexual molestation and
                       unlawful coercion. But Soca requested a new warrant. A
                       spokeswoman for the Swedish National Police Board told
                       the BBC that the original one had been refused because
                       it listed only the maximum penalty for the most
                       serious crime alleged, rather than for all of the
                       crimes.

                       When the arrest is made, Mr Assange will be taken
                       before an extradition hearing at Westminster
                       magistrates' court. If he refuses to be extradited, a
                       judge will preside over an extradition hearing and
                       will rule whether he should be sent to Sweden or
                       discharged.

                       Last night, Mr Stephens said he would challenge any
                       arrest in British courts. "The process in this case
                       has been so utterly irregular that the chances of a
                       valid arrest warrant being submitted to me are very
                       small," he said. Mr Stephens has accused Swedish
                       prosecutors of launching a witch-hunt against his
                       client, who strongly denies the rape allegations and
                       says he is being smeared because of the expos=C3=A9s
                       published by his website.

                       He has maintained that Swedish prosecutors have yet to
                       provide any evidence against Mr Assange and have
                       ignored his requests to meet with them. He also
                       expressed concerns at the way the UK and Swedish
                       authorities were handling the case.

                       "I feel like I am sitting in the middle of a surreal
                       Swedish fairytale," he said. "The trolls keep
                       threatening to come on and keep making noises off
                       stage. But at the moment, no appearance from them."

                       In an interview with an Australian newspaper, Mr
                       Assange's mother defended her son and lambasted hawks
                       in the US who have called for his death.

                       Ms Assange, who runs a puppet theatre in Noosa, a
                       Queensland beach resort, defended her son's decision
                       to publish thousands of classified US documents on the
                       website. "He sees what he's doing as doing a good
                       thing in the world =E2=80=93 fighting baddies= , if
                       you like," she told Queensland's Courier-Mail.

                       Ms Assange =E2=80=93 who does not even own a computer
                       =E2=80=93 described her son as a her= o of the
                       internet. But she added that she feared he had "gotten
                       too smart for himself", saying: "I'm concerned it's
                       gotten too big and the forces that he's challenging
                       are too big." She did not want him "hunted down and
                       jailed".

                       On 12/3/10 7:24 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                         WikiLeaks back online, Assange close to arrest

                         Updated 2 hours 45 minutes ago
                         http://www.abc.net.au=
                         /news/stories/2010/12/03/3084384.htm

                         The WikiLeaks website is back online with a new
                         Swiss address after its previous domain name was
                         killed.

                         The whistleblower website's original domain host,
                         EveryDNS.net, says it terminated its services
                         because Wikileaks had been coming under "massive"
                         cyber attacks.

                         The new address - wikileaks.ch - was put online six
                         hours after the original site wikileaks.org was
                         killed.

                         An internet trace of the new domain name suggests
                         that the site itself is still hosted in Sweden and
                         in France.

                         Web users accessing the wikileaks.ch address are
                         directed to a page under the URL
                         http://213.251.145.96= / which gives them access to
                         the former site, including a massive trove of leaked
                         US diplomatic traffic.

                         The WikiLeaks website released more than 250,000
                         secret US diplomatic cables this week, which has
                         left governments around the world scrambling to deal
                         with the fallout.

                         Meanwhile, British media reports Scotland Yard could
                         arrest the site's founder Julian Assange within
                         days.

                         Prosecutors in Sweden want to question Mr Assange
                         over alleged sex crimes involving two women during a
                         visit to Stockholm in August.

                         Mr Assange, who was born in Australia, has not been
                         charged and he denies the allegations.

                         He reportedly avoided arrest this week because
                         Swedish authorities had filled out an Interpol red
                         notice incorrectly.

                         Britain's Independent newspaper reports that police
                         know Mr Assange's whereabouts in England and are
                         expected to arrest him in the coming days.

                         Mr Assange's Stockholm-based lawyer Bjoern Hurtig
                         says he will fight his client's extradition to
                         Sweden in the event of his arrest.

                         "Together with my British colleague Mark Stephens
                         and international experts, we will fight the
                         extradition warrants," he said.

                         A WikiLeaks spokesman says Mr Assange has to remain
                         out of the public eye because he is facing
                         assassination threats following the whistleblowing
                         website's publication of the secret cables.

                         Several US senators have also called for him to be
                         charged with espionage.

                         Senator Dianne Feinstein says the leak is a serious
                         breach of national security and action must be
                         taken.

                         "We have reviewed the espionage statutes and we
                         believe it qualifies," she said.

                         "That this, allowed to be carried out, incapacitates
                         this nation to carry out business."
                         --

                         Sean Noonan

                         Tactical Analyst

                         Office: +1 512-279-9479&lt;/= p&gt;

                         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967&lt;/= p&gt;

                         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

                         www.stratfor.com

                       --

                       Sean Noonan

                       Tactical Analyst

                       Office: +1 512-279-9479

                       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

                       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

                       www.stratfor.com&lt;= /p&gt;

                     --

                     Sean Noonan

                     Tactical Analyst

                     Office: +1 512-279-9479

                     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

                     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.&lt;/= p&gt;

                     www.stratfor.com

                   --

                   Sean Noonan

                   Tactical Analyst

                   Office: +1 512-279-9479

                   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

                   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

                   www.stratfor.com

 --=20
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX

               --

               Sean Noonan

               Tactical Analyst

               Office: +1 512-279-9479

               Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

               Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

               www.stratfor.com

 --=20
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@st=
 ratfor.com


 --=20
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         ww= w.stratfor.com

         --
         Sean Noonan
         Tactical Analyst
         Office: +1 512-279-9479
         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
         www.stratfor.com

         --
         --
         Emre Dogru
         STRATFOR =C2=A0
         Cell: +90.532.465.7514
         Fixed: +1.512.279.9468 =C2=A0
         emre.dogru@stratf= or.com =C2=A0
         www.stratfor.com

 --=20
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com


     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 14:46:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1634202_re-use-me-re-discussion-assange-arrested-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ben.west@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1634932</id>
    <title>Fwd: Re: [Analytical &amp; Intelligence Comments] RE: Taking Stock of
 WikiLeaks
</title>
    <description>   no evidence. 

   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: Re: [Analytical &amp; Intelligence Comments] RE: Taking Stock of      
            WikiLeaks                                                         
      Date: Tue, 14 Dec 2010 12:28:02 -0600                                   
      From: Captain Michael Mc Cright &lt;mse.captainmccright@gmail.com&gt;         
        To: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;                            

 This information was mentioned during an informal conversation with a
 (retired?) Federal Employee, I am certain he would not like to be
 named, and I suppose his information was
 also of speculative nature.

 On Tue, Dec 14, 2010 at 10:54 AM, Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:
 &gt; Dear Sir,
 &gt;
 &gt; Could you share with us where you got that information?  We've noted the
 &gt; possiblity, but have yet to see evidence of sources who have lost their
 &gt; lives.
 &gt;
 &gt; Thank you,
 &gt;
 &gt; Sean Noonan
 &gt;
 &gt; On 12/14/10 9:39 AM, MSE.CaptainMcCright@gmail.com wrote:
 &gt;
 &gt; MSE.CaptainMcCright@gmail.com sent a message using the contact form at
 &gt; https://www.stratfor.com/contact.
 &gt;
 &gt; I understand appoximately 20 people have lost their lives.
 &gt; due to  the sensitive nature of their work and a now public disclosure.
 &gt;
 &gt;
 &gt; --
 &gt;
 &gt; Sean Noonan
 &gt;
 &gt; Tactical Analyst
 &gt;
 &gt; Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 &gt;
 &gt; www.stratfor.com



 --



 Best,


 Michael Mc Cright
 Maritime Synergy Enterprises,LLC

 MSE.CaptainMcCright@gmail.com
 Home/office 713 468 3393
 Cell 832 640 3393
 Fax 713 264-8640
</description>
    <date>2010-12-14 19:28:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 23:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1634932_fwd-re-analytical-and-intelligence-comments-re-taking-stock.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>responses@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1636055</id>
    <title>Question for Comrade J
</title>
    <description>   Fred,

   Korena told me to send you some questions.  I don't have much since I
   haven't read much about Russian intel since KGB.  But here are some quick
   thoughts:

   1. What are the main changes in Russian intelligence since the fall of the
   Soviet Union?  especially cultural shifts?

   2. What impact did changes in funding have?  How would he judge the
   current effectiveness of Russian intel against KGB in the past?

   3. Many state that the KGB trained Iranian's MOIS in disinformation, but
   none share specifics.  Does he know anymore about what kind of training
   was done?

   4. Is Obama a russian plant?

 --
 Sean Noonan
 ADP- Tactical Intelligence
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-03-29 21:49:22</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1636055_question-for-comrade-j-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1638765</id>
    <title>Fw: NYPD Intel/CT
</title>
    <description>
------Original Message------
From: Paul Goldenberg
To: Fred Burton {6}
Subject: RE: NYPD Intel/CT
Sent: Dec 12, 2011 4:05 PM

Sure do- the Dep Commish is my personal friend- Send it over and I'll be
happy to work it- I am hiring an analyst full time in Richmond Va.. need
someone asap.. any leads. Also, do you know and trust the guys at Trapwire??
They ok!! Mike reached out to me to explore working together.

-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
Sent: Monday, December 12, 2011 4:53 PM
To: Paul Goldenberg; Patrick Daly
Subject: NYPD Intel/CT

Paul &amp; Pat,

Have any good contacts w/NYPD Intel/CT?  I know a very good analyst who
has applied for a position there.

Thanks, Fred



Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2011-12-12 23:25:56</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1638765_fw-nypd-intel-ct-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1639695</id>
    <title>CHINA/CSM- Foxconn invites monks in wake of six suicides
</title>
    <description>   Foxconn invites monks in wake of six suicides
   By Wang Qian (China Daily)
   Updated: 2010-05-13 07:12
   http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-05/13/content_9842460.htm

   Company officials want to release 'nervous emotions' of employees

   SHENZHEN - Another employee of Taiwan-funded Foxconn Technology Group
   committed suicide this week, bringing the total to six so far this year.
   In addition, two other workers attempted suicide since Jan 1, but they
   were not successful.

   In response to this growing problem, company officials are planning to
   invite monks to the company to conduct a religious rite to dispel
   misfortune.

   A 24-year-old woman killed herself by jumping from a rented apartment in
   the city on Tuesday night, becoming the eighth suicide attempt among the
   Foxconn employees since January.

   This is the sixth time a Foxconn employee committed suicide by jumping out
   of a building.

   The world's largest contract manufacturer of electronics said in a
   statement on Wednesday that it regrets the suicide of the worker.

   The deceased, surnamed Zhu, died at around 7 pm Tuesday. A native of
   Central China's Henan province, she joined Foxconn in August 2009.

   Zhu was on leave when she jumped out of her rented apartment at
   Shuidouxincun in the Longhua neighborhood. Her mother was visiting Zhu in
   Shenzhen after traveling from her hometown in Henan.

   The police are still investigating the incident and no further details are
   available.

   After the seventh suicide took place on May 6, Foxconn officials invited
   eminent monks to "release the souls from purgatory".

   Liu Kun, director of the press office with the company, told China Daily,
   "The victims' families asked us to bless the dead and release their souls
   from suffering, and we will do everything we can to comfort them and
   prevent such accidents in the future."

   Liu said the company has already established a management center to help
   employees maintain mental health. High-level officials in the company will
   give talks to the staff to "help them look on the bright side of the life
   time to time," Liu said.

   Insiders said Terry Gou, president of Foxconn, wants to invite eminent
   monks from the Wutai mountain to release the six souls from suffering and
   make a blessing to a peaceful future of the company, Nanfang Metropolis
   Daily reported on Wednesday.

   Company officials just want to release the "nervous emotions" among the
   employees and follow the traditional customs, Liu said.

   Li Jicheng, head of the Shenzhen-based Dexiu Martial Club, told Nanfang
   Metropolis Daily on Wednesday that Foxconn asked him to help invite 30
   eminent monks to the company within the next seven days.

   Li said three eminent monks already arrived in Shenzhen on Monday night.

   The idea of inviting eminent monks for a blessing has been discussed since
   April, due to the series of suicides. But officials, afraid of criticism
   from the public, suspended the plan until the seventh suicide on May 6.

   At about 4:30 am on May 6, Lu Xin, a 24-year-old employee, ended his life
   by jumping off the sixth flour of his dormitory in Hualong district inside
   the company grounds.

   Lu, from Hunan province, joined the company on Aug 1, 2009 and was found
   to have abnormal behavior and delusions in May.

   Zeng Hongling, a friend of Lu's, said that Lu has been in a trance since
   April 30, saying that he was being chased and someone wanted to murder
   him. He reported the abnormal behavior to the company.

   The company arranged for Zeng to look after Lu. Zeng contacted Lu's
   family, hoping that they would come to Shenzhen to help and comfort him.

   Lu's family bought a train ticket, leaving on May 5 and arriving at about
   9 am on May 6, but Lu killed himself earlier that day.

   "We did everything we could," Cheng Tianzong, vice-president of the
   company, told media.

   A group of psychologists was invited to Shenzhen by Foxconn to make a
   consultation after the seventh case.

   In an interview with CCTV about the series of Foxconn suicides, Fan Fumin,
   professor and vice chairman of the Department of Psychology at Tsinghua
   University, said the suicide rate among Foxconn employees is about 2 to 3
   per 100,000, similar to the rate among college students.

   Comparatively, the rate is not high, Fan said. According to the World
   Health Organization, the suicide rates in China are 13.0 per 100,000 males
   and 14.8 per 100,000 females. (Figures are from 1999, the most recent year
   available.)

   However, Fan also said that intervention should have occured earlier as
   the suicides took place intensively since March and the behavior seems to
   have been copied.

   In April 2010, one male and two female employees committed suicide by
   jumping out of tall buildings. They were all aged 18 to 24.

   In March, two employees - one male and one female - jumped from
   dormitories, but the female did not die.

   The first suicide happened on Jan 23 when Ma Xiangqian, a 19-year-old
   employee, ended his life.

   Foxconn is the foremost provider of joint-design, joint-development,
   manufacturing, assembly and after-sales services to global computer,
   communications and consumer electronics companies.

   In its Longhua manufacturing base in Shenzhen, Foxconn employs more than
   300,000 workers.

   Xinhua and Chen Hong contributed to the story.

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-05-13 21:20:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1639695_china-csm-foxconn-invites-monks-in-wake-of-six-suicides-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>os@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1641963</id>
    <title>Re: Special Ops &amp; MX ** not for pub **
</title>
    <description>   I just don't think that Obamanos will allow any action on the southern
   front. I may well be wrong there, but I just don't see it. As for the OBL
   hit, it was an effective end-run around him, from which he recovered well
   -- and from which he's made lots of political hay. But he doesn't have
   that luxury with MX...he's not about to risk losing the majority of the
   Hispanic voting block (especially the illegals!) in 2012....
    
   "There is nothing more necessary than good intelligence to frustrate a
   designing enemy, &amp; nothing requires greater pains to obtain." -- George
   Washington
   On May 13, 2011, at 5:20 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

     El Chapo being rubbed out by us is bad for our business, so I have
     already told my contact this is a mistake.  With luck, they will
     listen. 

     On 5/13/2011 5:17 PM, Victoria Allen wrote:

       Concur
       I'm not on the Social list, so I'll just say it here... Nothing,
       repeat, nothing of substantive efficacy vis-a-vis Mexico will be
       green-lighted on the current POTUS's watch by that unworthy
       individual. If it's not a community to be organized, he doesn't have a
       fucking clue, nor the willingness to trust the professionals who do.
       "Okay, Victoria, now tell us how you really feel!"
       On May 13, 2011, at 5:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

         If I was him, my trust would rest w/El Chapo, not Obomo.

         On 5/13/2011 5:08 PM, Victoria Allen wrote:

           Yup, I mentioned that potential a couple months ago

           About frikkin' time.

           Now we'll see if Calderon really does "look the other way"......

           On May 13, 2011, at 4:41 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

             Have been told by a very good contact that JSOC is looking at
             unilateral

             actions in MX targeting cartel HVT's.
</description>
    <date>2011-05-14 00:41:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-23 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1641963_re-special-ops-and-mx-not-for-pub-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>victoria.allen@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1642526</id>
    <title>[Fwd: Fw: Fwd: Re: Kalashnikov from Berlin]
</title>
    <description>

------------------------------------------------------------------------
*From: * Lauren Goodrich &lt;lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;
*Date: *Wed, 26 Jan 2011 10:45:01 -0600
*To: *scott stewart&lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;; Anya
Alfano&lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;; Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
*Subject: *Fwd: Re: Kalashnikov from Berlin

This was my last written correspondence with the Kalishnikovs. They have
called me once since, but cried on the phone (literally cried) about
having me tell George to get them to the US.

I'll keep this off the lists and just between us for now.
I have Fred's questions for them, but let me know if you have more.

Fred's questions:

What did they do for the FSB/KGB? 
Why now?
Do they think Comrade J was murdered? 



-------- Original Message --------
Subject: 	Re: Kalashnikov from Berlin
Date: 	Sun, 12 Dec 2010 22:43:15 +0100
From: 	Greta Garbo &lt;garbogreta280@googlemail.com&gt;
To: 	Lauren Goodrich &lt;lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;



Hi, Lauren,
 
We are both to stay and settle professionally, so any co-operation with
co-thinkers in the West would strengthen the scope of our activity and
positions.
 
Also we have a serious political - medical agenda here. The German
doctors found at both of us Mercury (56 and 53, 7 mg/l, while adoptable
is 1-2, dangerous limit is 3 mg/l). Police investigates case of
poisoning by the Russian authorities.
 
The Times, November 20, 2010, made a 2-page placement about us, tomorrow
issue of the German Focus magazine already came out also with a
big article (p 54-57). Media reaction in the English and German Internet
space is huge, you can easily follow it.
 
We have not our laptop at hand with the registered Skype account, and I
am trying to enter into Skype from the hotel computer, but fail.
Tomorrow we will have our laptop, but if you can call us on the
land-line 0049 30 880 02 0 through the reception, or mobile 0049 15 20
608 09 61 - we could talk out some things right now.
 
Victor could offer some ideas which Jeff evaluated as fresh and usable
views.
 
Regards,
 
Marina

2010/12/12 Lauren Goodrich &lt;lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
&lt;mailto:lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;&gt;

    Hello Marina and Victor,
    It is good to hear from you. Are you both in Berlin to stay?
    It would be good to speak with you.
    My skype is l-goodrich
    Sincerely,
    Lauren Goodrich


    On 12/11/10 3:45 PM, Greta Garbo wrote:
&gt;     Hi, Lauren,
&gt;      
&gt;     We are currently in Berlin, follow the Stratfor bulletins on many
&gt;     issues, but especially were captivated by that one delineating the
&gt;     new Berlin's role, politics and opinion in Europe. Also Victor can
&gt;     tell more on the Moscow military-foreign policy (Jeff Nyquist put
&gt;     smth in Internet). It looks as if we could do something useful
&gt;     from here. Let's talk about it.
&gt;      
&gt;     if we exchange Skp details we can also talk by Skp. my address is
&gt;     mary.poters
&gt;      
&gt;     Regards,
&gt;      
&gt;     Marina, Victor Kalashnikov
&gt;     `
&gt;     0049 1520 6080961 mobile
&gt;      
&gt;     e-mail: victor.kalashnikov088@gmail.com
&gt;     &lt;mailto:victor.kalashnikov088@gmail.com&gt;
&gt;     e-mail: marptchk@gmail.com &lt;mailto:marptchk@gmail.com&gt;
&gt;     e-mail: garbogreta280@googlemail.com
&gt;     &lt;mailto:garbogreta280@googlemail.com&gt;
&gt;      

    -- 

    Lauren Goodrich
    Senior Eurasia Analyst
    *STRATFOR
    *T: 512.744.4311
    F: 512.744.4334
    lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com &lt;mailto:lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;
    www.stratfor.com &lt;http://www.stratfor.com/&gt;
</description>
    <date>2011-01-26 18:47:05</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1642526_-fwd-fw-fwd-re-kalashnikov-from-berlin-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anya.alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1643516</id>
    <title>Comrade J - update
</title>
    <description>The details surrounding his death and his disclosures to an
investigative journalist have been classified SECRET for the next 25
years. 
</description>
    <date>2011-05-27 16:05:35</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1643516_comrade-j-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1644311</id>
    <title>Re: Pakistan Journalist Vanishes: Is the ISI Involved?
</title>
    <description>   The most interesting aspect is the killing of a journalist.  Fine line
   between an investigative journalist and spy.   When you rattle around
   topics nobody wants aired, you pay the price.  Truth tellers always get
   shot.  Its much easier to lie or make up stories. 

   On 6/1/2011 8:46 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     http://www.amazon.com/Bloodmoney-Novel-Espionage-David-Ignatius/dp/0393078116/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1306935919&amp;sr=8-1

     i don't think we're going anywhere with this SSS thing, though it is
     interesting. 
     On 6/1/11 8:41 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

       The poor bastard went down the rabbit hole and was neutralized. 

       ISI is fully infiltrated by sympathizers and operatives.  So, he was
       killed by ISI.  Will we find a smoking gun?  No.   Will anybody care
       about this dude?  Not really.  The Agency lost an asset.  Life goes
       on.  There is a reason the CIA set up unilateral operations in
       Pakistan. 

       Suggest everyone read David Ignatius new book on CIA NOC and front
       company operations in Pakistan.  Once again, he has gotten dead
       right. 

       On 6/1/2011 8:06 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         the question, though, is still who did it. 

         It means very different things if it is the ISI, the traditional
         military, or the jihadists.  Then a question of who within those
         groups can also mean different things. Not saying we can answer that
         very easily, but who specifically killed who (with the support of
         who) would explain if there is an issue or not.  Operating between
         the intelligence services and jihadists is a very, very dangerous
         place- so it's not all that surprising that these deaths occur.  And
         as tensions go up, so will those deaths.  But we would have to know
         the same people were involved in the deaths to really know what 'the
         issue' actually is. 
         On 6/1/11 7:59 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

           The issue is not the man himself (though I am personally spooked
           out because I knew him and we met not too long ago and he wrote on
           my fb wall a day before he went missing). Instead the issue is the
           growing number of deaths of people who have been supportive of
           jihadists. Recall KK and Col Imam and now Triple-S. The other
           thing is that each of these 3 people were with the ISI at one
           point. A former army chief confirmed to me that SSS was at one
           point on the payroll. Each of these guys had a falling out with
           the official ISI but maintained links deep within the service.
           These guys have also had ties to jihadists of one type while
           pissing off other more radical types.

           Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
           Date: Wed, 1 Jun 2011 07:51:53 -0500 (CDT)
           To: Sean Noonan&lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
           Cc: Secure List&lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;
           Subject: Re: Pakistan Journalist Vanishes: Is the ISI Involved?
           http://www.plutobooks.com/display.asp?K=9780745331010&amp;

           Note his May 20 book release.

           He was living on borrowed time operating in the belly of the
           beast.  His last interview is telling.  Regardless, he's dead. 
           Life on the edge. 

           On 6/1/2011 6:34 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

             Did y'all read his most recent story?
             http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/ME27Df06.html

             These three stories are pretty good on his death and what was
             going on:
             http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-05-31/syed-saleem-shahzad-suspicions-fall-on-pakistans-isi-in-journalists-death/#
             http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/leading-journalist-murdered-by-pakistani-security-service-2291604.html
             http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2074800,00.html#ixzz1NxHaX4xA
             Just throwing ideas out here.  This is such a clusterfuck I
             don't know what to think. 

             His next was to be "Next: Recruitment and training of militants
             "  So who was doing the recruitment and training, huh? 
             If it's anything like the first half, it sounds like he's going
             to accuse someone in the Pakistani military.  Maybe they wanted
             to stop that?

             Excerpt of new book on AQ and friends.  Says the Mumbai plan was
             ISI's and a dude under Kashmiri at LeT carried it out:
             http://www.syedsaleemshahzad.com/2011/05/who-masterminded-mumbai-attack/

             It seems just as likely jihadists could go after him for
             exposing their location (or that they thought he exposed it). 
             The reports I've read through of 'torture' were really just that
             he had been hit in the face.  That's probably pretty typical of
             any militant or criminal outfit, and while the other reports of
             his ISI meetings were more peaceful, it wouldn't be that
             difficult for them to go that far either. 

             Here's his email to the HRW:
             http://asiancorrespondent.com/56321/saleem-shahzad-dead-another-one-bites-the-dust/

             For future reference:

             Meeting details as on October 17, 2010 at the ISI headquarters
             Islamabad between DG Media Wing ISI, Rear Admiral Adnan Nazir
             and Syed Saleem Shahzad, the Bureau Chief Pakistan for Asia
             Times Online (Hong Kong). Commodore Khalid Pervaiz, the Deputy
             Director General of Media Wing ISI was also present during the
             conversation.

             Agenda of the meeting: discussion on Asia Times Online story
             published on October 15, 2010, titled Pakistan frees Taliban
             commander (see
             http://atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/LJ16Df02.html).

             The meeting discussed the following issues.

             1-Syed Saleem Shahzad told Rear Admiral Adnan that an
             intelligence channel leaked the story. However, he added that
             story was published only after a confirmation from the most
             credible Taliban source. Syed also explained that DG ISPR was
             sent a text message about the story, but he did not respond.

             2- Rear Admiral Adnan Nazir had the view that story caused a lot
             of embracement for the country but observed that issuing a
             denial from the government side is no solution. He suggested
             Syed Saleem Shahzad should write a denial of the story.

             3- Syed Shahzad refused to comply with demand and termed it
             impractical.

             4-Rear Admiral Adnan was curious to know the source of the story
             as it is a shame that information would leak from the office of
             a high profile intelligence service.

             5- Syed Shahzad called it an intelligence leak but did not
             specify the source.

             6-The conversation was held in an extremely polite and friendly
             atmosphere and there was no mince word in the room at any stage.
             Rear Admiral Adnan Nazir also offered Syed Saleem Shahzad a
             favor in following words.

             "I must give you a favor. We have recently arrested a terrorist
             and have recovered a lot of data, dairies and other material
             during the interrogation. The terrorist had a hit list with him.
             If I find your name in the list, I will certainly let you know,"

             (end of email)

             On 5/31/11 7:56 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

               I'm sure the ISI extracted a confession of his CIA work before
               he died. There will be a leaked story about his double agent
               work and the Pakis rub the CIA's nose in it. Its what intel
               agencies do. Tit for tat. The world will soon forget him.
               Price one pays for playing the game.

               Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

               From: "Kamran Bokhari" &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
               Date: Tue, 31 May 2011 19:36:07 -0500 (CDT)
               To: Reva Bhalla&lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;; Kamran
               Bokhari&lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
               ReplyTo: bokhari@stratfor.com
               Cc: Secure List&lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;; Fred
               Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
               Subject: Re: Pakistan Journalist Vanishes: Is the ISI
               Involved?
               Pretty big one. Domestic and int'l media shit-storm about how
               ISI brutally killed a journalist who uncovered ties between
               navy and aQ. The big thing now is aQ penetration of ISI.

               Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

               From: Reva Bhalla &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
               Date: Tue, 31 May 2011 19:29:03 -0500 (CDT)
               To: &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
               Cc: Secure List&lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;; Fred
               Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
               Subject: Re: Pakistan Journalist Vanishes: Is the ISI
               Involved?
               is it that much of a crisis?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

               From: "Kamran Bokhari" &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
               To: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;, "Kamran Bokhari"
               &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
               Cc: "Secure List" &lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;
               Sent: Tuesday, May 31, 2011 7:28:02 PM
               Subject: Re: Fwd: Pakistan Journalist Vanishes: Is the ISI
               Involved?

               Yes, he is dead. But the question is why create this new
               crisis when there are no shortages of crises.

               Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

               From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
               Date: Tue, 31 May 2011 19:18:28 -0500 (CDT)
               To: Kamran Bokhari&lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
               Cc: Secure List&lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;
               Subject: Re: Fwd: Pakistan Journalist Vanishes: Is the ISI
               Involved?
               I'm not surprised.  Have we confirmed he's dead? 

               On 5/31/2011 7:16 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

                 Heard that the ISI agents who were "interrogating" him
                 didn't realize he had a heart condition and when they began
                 the thrashing the guy had a heart attack and died.
                 On 5/31/2011 2:17 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

                   A reasonable man would conclude that the chap was on the
                   CIA dole, but you did not hear that from me.  Payback is a
                   bitch. 

                   -------- Original Message --------

                   Subject: Pakistan Journalist Vanishes: Is the ISI          
                            Involved?                                         
                      Date: Tue, 31 May 2011 13:15:00 -0500                   
                      From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;                 
                        To: OS &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                              

 Fears are growing for the safety of a well-known Pakistani journalist
 who has been missing for 39 hours now and, according to an international
 advocacy group, is believed to be in the custody of Pakistan's
 controversial Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Human
 Rights Watch declared that Syed Saleem Shahzad, a reporter working for
 the Hong Kong-based Asia Times Online and Adnkronos International, the
 Italian news agency, could be subject to mistreatment and even torture
 while in custody.

 UPDATE: Pakistan's main news channels are reporting that Shahzad's dead
 body has been found. One news channel broadcast what appeared to be a
 black and white image of Shahzad's face. There were visible signs of
 torture..

 Read more:
 http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2074800,00.html#ixzz1NxHaX4xA


             --

             Sean Noonan

             Tactical Analyst

             Office: +1 512-279-9479

             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

             www.stratfor.com

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-06-01 15:50:16</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1644311_re-pakistan-journalist-vanishes-is-the-isi-involved-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>hoor.jangda@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1644852</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - Guatemala - Elections in Guatemala
</title>
    <description>Source Code: NONE
PUBLICATION: no
SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Head of Governance for Defense Firm in Europe
SOURCE  RELIABILITY:  A
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 4
SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION: Secure Only
SPECIAL HANDLING: Confidential - Please do not disseminate outside the 
Secure list
SOURCE HANDLER: Colby

in the context of the report on the presidential candidates family 
fleeing Peten - I maintain that the Coloms are collaborating with the 
Mexicans. They are from HueHue after all...
</description>
    <date>2011-05-20 17:40:25</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1644852_insight-guatemala-elections-in-guatemala-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>colby.martin@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1644896</id>
    <title>Re: [OS] US/CT-Blackwater Officials Indicted for Weapons Violations
</title>
    <description>   Sean Noonan wrote:

     Blackwater Officials Indicted for Weapons Violations
     By Jeremy Scahill
     http://www.thenation.com/doc/20100503/scahill2
     April 19, 2010

     &gt;From the first days of the launch of the so-called "war on terror,"
     Blackwater has been at the epicenter of some of the most secretive
     operations conducted by US forces globally. It has worked on government
     assassination programs and drone bombings, operated covertly in Pakistan
     for both the CIA and the Joint Special Operations Command, assisted
     secret raids inside of Syria, trained foreign militaries and continues
     to bodyguard senior US officials in Afghanistan. The company also has a
     bloody track record of killing civilians in Iraq and Afghanistan. Many
     seasoned observers believe that the extent of the dark acts committed by
     Blackwater have yet to come to light.

           Jeremy Scahill: Three US special forces soldiers were killed in
     northwest Pakistan this week, confirming that the US military is more
     deeply engaged on the ground in Pakistan than previously acknowledged by
     the White House and Pentagon.

     While Congressional committees, the IRS, the FBI and lawyers
     representing foreign victims of the company have fought for years to
     hold Blackwater and its forces accountable for their alleged crimes, the
     company has proved to be Teflon. Not a single case against the company
     has resulted in any significant action. Following last December's
     dismissal of the high-profile criminal case against the Blackwater
     operatives allegedly responsible for the 2007 Nisour Square shootings
     that left seventeen Iraqis dead and more than twenty others wounded,
     federal prosecutors have now launched another salvo.

     Last week, the Justice Department announced that a federal grand jury
     had returned a fifteen-count indictment against five current and former
     Blackwater officials, charging them with conspiracy to violate a series
     of federal gun laws, obstruction of justice and making false statements
     to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms. Among those indicted
     were Blackwater owner Erik Prince's longtime right-hand man, former
     company president Gary Jackson, Blackwater's former legal counsel Andrew
     Howell and two former company vice presidents. Given Blackwater's track
     record and the severity of other allegations against the
     company--including killing unarmed civilians--if the charges in this
     case stick, it would be somewhat akin to Al Capone going down for tax
     evasion. The one major difference being, the number-one man at
     Blackwater, Erik Prince, is evading prosecution and jail. Prince, who
     remains the Blackwater empire's sole owner, was not indicted.

     The weapons charges stem from Blackwater's purchase of 227 "short
     barrels" for use with the company's government-issued M4 rifles in Iraq
     and Afghanistan, a violation of State Department weapons guidelines for
     contractors. Former Blackwater employees have alleged in sworn
     affidavits that Prince had used his personal planes to smuggle banned
     weapons into Iraq, sometimes wrapping them in large shipments of dog
     food for the company's K-9 teams in Iraq. Prince, however, is not named
     in the indictment.

     The indictment also charges that the Blackwater officials "arranged
     straw purchases" of Romanian AK-47s and fully automatic M-4 rifles for
     use inside the United States. According to the indictment, the local
     sheriff's department in Blackwater's home base of Moyock, North
     Carolina, provided Blackwater with blank stationery that "was used to
     prepare letters claiming the sheriff's office wanted" the weapons. "The
     weapons were paid for by Blackwater, were immediately delivered to
     Blackwater upon their arrival, and were locked in Blackwater's armory to
     which the sheriff's office had no direct access," according to federal
     prosecutors.

     In March 2009, the ATF informed Blackwater that it would be coming to
     the company's compound for an inspection of the armory of Blackwater
     subsidiary XPG. Former Blackwater officials told The Nation that XPG was
     created in part as a successor to Blackwater SELECT and Blackwater PTC,
     the divisions of the company that did sensitive covert work for the CIA
     and JSOC.

     When Blackwater was informed of the impending ATF investigation,
     according to the Justice Department:

         Allegedly, [Blackwater lawyer Andrew] Howell did not want any more
     SBRs [Short Barrel Rifles] to be found and told a subordinate that
     disclosing the SBRs was "not an option." He and [Blackwater vice
     president Ana] Bundy subsequently ordered the short-barreled guns in
     XPG's armory to be moved to Blackwater's armory where the barrels could
     be switched out. Only the long-barreled guns were returned to XPG.
     Howell then prepared a letter for the company president's signature and
     attached it to an e-mail. The letter was intended to be back-dated and
     would have given a false impression that the President had ordered the
     alteration of the guns--which had already been accomplished by direction
     of Howell and Bundy.

     The Justice Department also alleges that Blackwater officials, in an
     attempt to win a lucrative contract with the Kingdom of Jordan,
     presented several guns as gifts to Jordanian officials who came to tour
     Blackwater's private military base in North Carolina. According to the
     indictment, "the officials were presented with one M4, three Glocks, and
     a Remington shotgun. Each was inscribed with the Blackwater logo and
     presented in a case. Subsequently, the company realized it could not
     account for the guns in its required records." Blackwater president Gary
     Jackson, prosecutors allege, "then organized the false completion" of
     federal documents that "were designed to give the appearance that
     employees had bought the guns for their own use."

     Until recently, Blackwater had a partnership with Sig Sauer to
     manufacture a Blackwater-brand 9 millimeter pistol. For years the
     company has done a multimillion-dollar business with Jordan, training
     the company's special-forces helicopter pilots and advising the kingdom
     on intelligence matters. Blackwater also has a headquarters in Jordan.
     Last year the New York Times reported that Gary Jackson was involved in
     a scheme to bribe Iraqi officials to stay quiet on the company's alleged
     massacre of seventeen Iraqi civilians in Baghdad's Nisour Square in
     September 2007 and to allow Blackwater to continue operating in the
     country despite the public outrage in Iraq. That alleged plot, according
     to the Times, involved the transfer of $1 million into Jordan for
     ultimate use in Iraq.

     Each of the charges against the Blackwater officials potentially carries
     a penalty of three to twenty years in prison and hundreds of thousands
     of dollars in fines. Lawyers for the accused have said their clients are
     not guilty of the charges and will fight them. There are two other
     pending criminal cases against Blackwater. Prosecutors have apealed the
     dismissal of the Nisour Square case, and two Blackwater operatives have
     been indicted on charges they killed innocent Afghan civilians. In a
     recent interview, Prince estimated his monthly legal bills to be between
     $2-3 million.

     Meanwhile, as Blackwater officials face another round of attempted
     criminal prosecutions, the company continues to fight off the remaining
     civil lawsuits stemming from the Nisour Square shooting. Last year
     Blackwater settled with most of the victims, reportedly for a total of
     $5 million. The only remaining suit against the company over Nisour
     Square was brought by a small group of Iraqis, most prominent among them
     Mohammed Kinani, the father of the youngest known victim of the
     shooting. His 9-year-old son, Ali, was shot in the head that day and
     died shortly after from his injuries. Kinani originally sued Blackwater
     in state court in North Carolina, but last week a federal judge sided
     with Blackwater and took control over the case. That judge, Terrence
     Boyle, was a former legislative aide to the late Republican Senator
     Jesse Helms, who urged President Ronald Reagan to appoint Boyle, which
     Reagan did. For more than a decade, Democrats blocked Boyle's nomination
     to the appelate court, characterizing him as an ultraconservative who
     opposed civil rights and was often over-ruled on appeal. It is hard to
     imagine a better judge for Blackwater to draw in this case.

     As it has done in other cases, Blackwater has asked the Obama Justice
     Department to intervene in Kinani's case and to make the US
     government--not Blackwater and the individual shooters in the case--the
     defendant. Legal experts have told The Nation that if the Justice
     Department did that, the case would be dead in the water. The Justice
     Department has not responded to Blackwater's request. Blackwater,
     however, is not wasting any time seeking out alternatives.

     On April 7, lawyers for the six alleged shooters and Blackwater asked
     Judge Boyle to replace Blackwater and the shooters with the "United
     States" in the case, citing the Westfall Act, which was passed in 1988
     "to protect federal employees from personal liability for common law
     torts committed within the scope of their employment, while providing
     persons injured by the common law torts of federal employees with an
     appropriate remedy against the United States." If Boyle were to do this,
     the case would likely be immediately dismissed.

     In its filing, Blackwater's lawyers argued that the actions taken by the
     alleged Blackwater shooters at Nisour Square "indisputably fall within
     the scope" of their State Department employment. But Kinani's lawyers
     and federal prosecutors have alleged that the men disobeyed orders from
     their superiors not to proceed to Nisour Square that day, leading to the
     shooting. One of the Blackwater guards, Jeremy Ridgeway, pled guilty to
     killing an unarmed Iraqi in the square. In his sworn proffer that
     accompanied his guilty plea, Ridgeway admitted that he and the other
     five accused shooters "opened fire with automatic weapons and grenade
     launchers on unarmed civilians...killing at least fourteen people" and
     wounding at least twenty others. "None of these victims was an
     insurgent, and many were shot while inside of civilian vehicles that
     were attempting to flee" the Blackwater forces, the proffer stated.
     Ridgeway also admitted that his team had "not been authorized" to leave
     the Green Zone and that after they departed, they "had been specifically
     ordered" by US Embassy officials to return. "In contravention of that
     order," they proceeded to Nisour Square, according to Ridgeway.

     The Justice Department could intervene in the Kinani case at any point
     and produce evidence showing that Blackwater does not equal the US
     government and therefore should not be allowed to shift the burden of
     responsibility for the shooting onto the US government. To date, that
     has not happened, and it is currently a decision for one man: Judge
     Terrence Boyle.

 --
 Sean Noonan
 ADP- Tactical Intelligence
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

  

 --
 Sean Noonan
 ADP- Tactical Intelligence
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-04-19 22:33:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-18 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1644896_re-os-us-ct-blackwater-officials-indicted-for-weapons.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1645973</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat
</title>
    <description>   I think I am for another 1 hour or so... Rodger is back from his errand so
   will prob pull the plug on me any minute.

   On 11/22/10 11:03 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     From a small amount of research, I actually think they do a pretty good
     job.  Both French and German capabilities are very much overlooked. 
     Thank James Bond and Jack Bauer. 

     are you the analysis boss today?
     On 11/22/10 10:58 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

       In the more long-term, I think an analysis of the German intelligence
       agencies would be good too. They have been pretty decimated by the
       Cold War and by all the problems associated with running an
       intelligence agency in a post-Gestapo country. If Germany is ever
       going to become a world power again, however, they would need to
       overcome these deamons as well. That is sort of the last straw for
       Germany, the one that is going to be most sensitive to overcome. But
       perhaps this case may illustrate how they are already overcoming these
       issues.

       On 11/22/10 10:50 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         Main problem is that Der Spiegel is just that good, they've at least
         touched on most of what I would want to say about it.  The main
         thing here is how the politics of a terror threat/alert coincide
         with the reality of the threat itself. 

         We saw that Germany was fairly relaxed bout the earlier threat in
         Europe released by the US.  I'm not sure if that was the same as the
         info that the FBI passed over about this shia group, Saif (I don't
         know anything about them).  But something changed, as we noted last
         week in their interpretation.  That seems to go down to this virtual
         walk-in.  The one thing I was left confused about is whether BKA had
         ever been in contact with this source before.  It sounds like he
         cold called them.  It's common knowledge that walk-ins, rather than
         recruits, are nearly always the best sources.  But at the same time,
         they are very suspicious as double agents.  If this was a US source
         they would be freaking the fuck out after having Al-Balawi turn on
         them.  The germans seem to have cooler heads, but they will be
         working 24/7 to verify the source (let me make another plug for John
         Lecarre's A Most Wanted Man here, most of his career was in
         Germany). 

         They've clearly got enough corroborating information that they
         consider this a real threat.  But politically they are faced with
         the universal 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' alert
         problem.  If the Interior ministry doesn't say something, they will
         be liable if an attack occurs.  Look at the constant press over
         information on the warning intelligence for Mumbai.  As we've said
         before, simply issuing the warning may help to deter the attackers. 

         The real important bit here, is that it seems the germans have
         fairly good intelligence.  While this attack is still not happening
         tomorrow, they have a lot of details about what might be in the
         works, rather than a single-source intercept that indicates some
         vague threat.  It seems they've increased security pretty well at
         the Bundestag, and want to add to the presence at any possible
         target.  This is where we seem them scrambling, and where their
         intelligence holes are. 

         The task now for the germans is to verify this source.  Maybe even
         pick him up and put him on ice somewhere (Fred/Stick?), not in
         GErmany but in Pakistan/Afghanistan.  That will require some
         cooperation with either/both the Americans and Pakistanis.  They
         also need to verify all the bio information they have on these 4-6
         guys trying to get into germany and watch travelers very carefully. 
         The germans seem to be very good at surveilling these threats within
         Germany, so their best luck may come when one of the guys overseas
         contacts a local already under surveillance. 

         At minimum, this could be a pretty interesting tearline this week. 
         Both the walk-in issues and the CIA/FBI liaison conflicts that I
         havne't gotten into here. 
         On 11/22/10 10:34 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

           Any thoughts on where you guys are thinking of going with this?

           Der Spiegel article is indeed interesting.

           On 11/22/10 9:28 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

             Great report from Der Spiegel (thanks Mikey).  I suggest anyone
             interested to read the whole thing.  They ask the right
             questions, and while not as much detail as I hoped, give us a
             much better understanding on the threat in Germany. 

             The BKA (germany's FBI) must be extremely busy verifying the
             details of this virtual walk-in.  It obviously caused the
             germans to shit their pants.  But the real questions are buried
             in the article---how real was this plot, how real is the source,
             is the source just trying to get back to the land of brezeln and
             bier? Trying to double-cross them somehow?

             Also note the tip off from the FBI (cue fred), not the usual CIA
             liaison with BND. 

             For Eurasia, there's a lot in here on the internal politics of
             the interior minister position, and the relation between state
             and federal government. 

             On 11/22/10 8:55 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

               -------- Original Message --------

                Subject: [OS] GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror    
                         Threat                                               
                   Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 08:38:21 -0600                      
                   From: Graham Smith &lt;graham.smith@stratfor.com&gt;             
               Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                        
                     To: os@stratfor.com                                      

                11/22/2010 11:38 AM
               Fears of a Mumbai Redux
               The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat

               http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,730377,00.html
               By Matthias Bartsch, Yassin Musharbash and Holger Stark

               Germany is currently in a state of high alert. Security
               officials are warning that they have concrete information
               pointing to a possible terror attack on the federal parliament
               building in Berlin, a massively popular tourist attraction.
               The days of Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere's reserved
               stances in dealing with such warnings appear to be over.

               The call came from abroad, and the man speaking hurriedly on
               the other end of the line sounded as if he feared for his
               life. He wanted out, he told the officers of the German
               Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) -- out of the terrorist
               scene. He wanted to come back to Germany, back to his family.
               Then he asked if German officials could help him.

               Right now, they're trying to do just that. The BKA is pursuing
               the case under the codename "Nova." The apparently remorseful
               man could be an important possible whistleblower from a
               dangerous region of the globe. In fact, he is also the most
               recent reason why German Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere
               put the entire country in a state of fright on Wednesday.

               During a hastily called press conference that day, de Maiziere
               stated that Germany faced the threat of terrorist attacks that
               might be launched against the country at some point in
               November. As he put it, Germany is "presently dealing with a
               new situation."
               Just two days earlier, the source had called for the third
               time in just a short period and provided more information. He
               told officials that a small group of terrorists wanted to
               conduct a raid on the Reichstag building in Berlin, which
               houses the federal parliament, and that that was only one of
               the targets included in their attack plans.

               Germany on High Alert

               Since then, Germany has been in a state of high alert. The
               Reichstag is surrounded with barricades and its popular cupola
               tourist attraction temporarily closed to visitors. Police
               armed with submachine guns are patrolling major railway
               stations and airports. And vacations have been called off for
               officials at the country's security agencies. Wherever they
               have cause for doing so, the authorities are secretly
               monitoring communications, conducting surveillance operations
               and launching undercover investigations. At the moment,
               investigators seem to be at a loss; their modus operandi:
               "We'll prod the shrubs and see if we can flush out any birds."

               "There is cause for worry, but no cause for hysteria," de
               Maiziere assured his listeners. But while he has never been
               much of an agitator, his colleagues at the state level have
               described the situation in much more drastic terms. Uwe
               Schu:nemann, for example, who has been the interior minister
               of the northwestern state of Lower Saxony since 2003, stated
               that he had "never experienced a heightened security situation
               like this one." And Berlin Senator for the Interior Ehrhart
               Ko:rting, whose position is tantamount to that of a government
               minister in the city-state, has already even gone so far as to
               call on the inhabitants of the German capital city to report
               suspicious-looking individuals of Arab origin to the police.
               "If you suddenly see three somewhat strange-looking men who
               are new to your neighborhood, who hide their faces and who
               only speak Arabic," Ko:rting said, "you should report them to
               the authorities."

               Under heightened pressure, officials in Germany's 16 federal
               states are now checking to see when and where major events are
               scheduled to take place this coming week within their
               boundaries. And nothing suggested as a possible target is
               being discounted, no matter how unlikely. For example,
               officials in Rhineland-Palatinate warned the state's interior
               minister, Karl Peter Burch, that there was always a lot going
               on at IKEA stores on Saturdays.[WTF]

               Serenity, Scaremongering and Strategy

               Since last week, German politicians at both the state and
               federal levels have once again had to figure out how they will
               handle themselves when making warnings about terrorist
               attacks. They have had to come up with a language that can
               simultaneously convey both an alert and a sense of calm.

               This is no easy task. For one thing, this isn't the first time
               this has happened. In September 2009, for example, right
               before federal elections were held, there were concrete
               threats that resulted in a heightened security situation. But,
               in the end, nothing happened. This time around, people are
               wondering whether they are on the precipice of an emergency or
               whether these are once again empty threats.

               Still, one thing is certain: For the time being, Germany has
               become a different country -- more nervous, more anxious, more
               agitated. And Germany's domestic security policies are being
               put to the test.

               When Interior Minister de Maiziere assumed his office in
               October 2009 in conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel's
               government, he aimed to cool down the heated sense of alarm
               regularly fanned out by his predecessors. What's more, the man
               who had served as Merkel's chief of staff in Chancellery until
               being moved to the role of interior minister in her new
               government, was given the task of nurturing a more relaxed
               relationship between her party, the Christian Democratic Union
               (CDU), and its new coalition partner, the business-friendly
               Free Democratic Party (FDP). In particular, it was his job to
               not draw out the long-standing conflict over domestic security
               policies with the Justice Ministry, which has been led since
               the 2009 election by Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, a
               member of the FDP. Indeed, Merkel feared that the quarrelsome
               FDP might try to capitalize on the issue to win over more
               voters, so she assigned de Maiziere to prevent that from
               happening.

               In fact, the plan was to repeat the same strategy that the CDU
               and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union
               (CSU), had used when they were in the so-called "grand
               coalition" with the center-left Social Democratic Party,
               between 2005 and 2009. At the time, they made a point of
               undermining the SPD by championing what had traditionally been
               the latter party's issues.

               A Game-Changer

               But now the game plan has changed. This November will
               drastically alter de Maiziere's understanding of his role in
               office. If he tries to return things to their previous state
               of calm, he's going to have a very tough time. In fact, it's
               much more likely that he will be a completely different
               interior minister.

               For a while now, de Maiziere's softer stance has prompted
               opposition by politicians on the right involved with domestic
               security issues. But they are now calling louder than ever for
               a tougher course to be followed. Merkel is also adjusting to
               the new situation and is reportedly happy with the way de
               Maiziere handled himself last week. Likewise, no one seems to
               have voiced any criticism last Thursday evening during a
               meeting of the Coalition Committee, a regular gathering of the
               parties that are part of the government.

               The almost complete lack of protest has a lot to do with where
               the alarming information is coming from. In fact, information
               regarding the supposedly imminent attacks has come from two
               independent sources. Shortly before receiving the telephone
               call about the planned attacks, BKA officials had received a
               cable from their American counterparts at the FBI, America's
               federal police force, warning of possible attacks.

               Still, what truth is there in these "security-related" pieces
               of information coming from both domestic and foreign sources?
               And, given all the discrepancies in the warning messages, just
               how much do they deserve to be trusted? Indeed, even among
               security officials themselves, there is some doubt about how
               legitimate these statements are -- and about just how acute
               the danger threatening Germany really is.

               An Attack Modelled after Mumbai[plot details in this section]
               What the caller reported was undeniably alarming. According to
               him, al-Qaida and associated groups based in Pakistan were
               making joint preparations for an attack in Germany. One idea
               was to remotely detonate a bomb using a mobile phone. Another
               called for a small group of terrorists to storm the Reichstag
               with guns blazing, take hostages and end everything in one
               calamitous bloodbath. Indeed, BKA officials learned that the
               latter plan had been modeled on the storming of luxury hotels
               in Mumbai, the Indian capital, almost exactly two years ago,
               in a massacre that left 175 people dead.

               According to the caller, the plan called for the terrorists to
               procure the submachine guns, automatic rifles, explosives and
               whatever else they would need to storm Germany's parliament
               building in the Balkans. He said that two men had already
               traveled to Germany six to eight weeks earlier, adding that
               one had the nom de guerre of "Abu Mohammed" and that the other
               one was a German of Turkish origin. Both apparently had roots
               in the Greater Berlin metropolitan area, were currently
               unemployed and living off of welfare payments and had immersed
               themselves in the anonymity provided by a major city -- until
               the time should come for their activation.

               Likewise, there were allegedly four other volunteers --
               including a German, a Turk, a North African and another
               jihadist of unknown identity -- in the training camps run by
               al-Qaida and related groups waiting for the signal to travel
               to Germany. And, according to the telephone source, al-Qaida's
               plan was to attack in February or March.
               The only question now relates to just how credible the
               caller's statements are. He is an insider who joined up with
               armed groups several months ago and has earned a reputation as
               a fanatic fighter.
               But could it be that he is only trying to tell German
               officials the juiciest things possible in order to raise his
               own market value and thereby prompt them to extract him from
               the terror scene? Or could it be that al-Qaida is even
               planning a second spectacular coup like the one in December
               2009, when the Americans allowed a supposedly top-level
               turncoat onto an American military base without any sort of
               pat-down, who went on to detonate his explosive vest and blow
               seven CIA officials to bits?

               A Strange Message

               A clear picture has yet to emerge. And one reason for this is
               also the fact that it was only two weeks ago that the FBI
               first decided to share information about another possible
               attack with German officials.

               In this case, even the way contact was made was unusual. Under
               normal circumstances, liaisons from the CIA station in Germany
               are the ones to communicate American warnings to their German
               counterparts. But, this time around, it was an apparently
               particularly anxious FBI that chose to directly notify the
               BKA.
               The FBI told the Germans about an obscure Indian group called
               "Saif," or "sword." Despite being a Shiite group, it had
               allegedly made a pact with al-Qaida, a Sunni organization, and
               sent five of its men to the Pakistani province of Waziristan
               for training. According to the FBI, two volunteers -- who were
               already equipped with visas allowing them to travel freely
               within the 25 European countries belonging to the Schengen
               zone -- were supposedly already en route to Germany and would
               enter the United Arab Emirates on Monday, Nov. 22. There, they
               would allegedly be provided with new travel documents before
               traveling on to Germany. One of the men is supposedly named
               "Khan," which is about as common in that part of the world as
               "Smith" is in English-speaking countries. And no firm
               conclusion had been made about their nationalities.

               The FBI agents even named the presumed masterminds behind the
               operation. A certain Mushtaq Altaf Bin-Khadri, who is in
               charge of finances and training for "Saif," allegedly
               dispatched the terrorist squad. But the FBI was not in a
               position to comment on the targets of the two men in Germany.

               One name came up time and again in the communique, and one
               that pricked the Germans' ears: Dawood Ibrahim. The
               54-year-old arms trader is "India's most-wanted man." The US
               government has listed him as a "global terrorist" and
               persuaded the United Nations to place his name on a list of
               supporters of terror. Ibrahim is rumored to be the head of
               D-Company, a criminal syndicate named after himself, and is
               believed to be in charge of smuggling the suspected terrorists
               into Germany.

               Both the FBI and the BKA are attaching a lot of importance to
               the information in the FBI communique. But the intelligence
               services of the two countries -- the CIA in the United States
               and the BND and Office for the Protection of the Constitution
               in Germany, the country's foreign and domestic intelligence
               agencies, respectively -- point to internal contradictions as
               reasons for their skepticism. As they see it, for example, it
               is highly unlikely that a Shiite group would team up with
               Sunni terrorists, especially since a good part of al-Qaida
               propaganda vilifies Shiites. Other reasons for doubt include
               the facts that none of the intelligence agencies was
               previously familiar with an organization called "Saif," that
               there have been no previously recorded threats against Germany
               by Indian extremists, and that the whole scenario seems rather
               implausible.

               On the other hand, the FBI information is uncommonly concrete.
               In addition to the names of the suspects, it also provides
               information about the exact day on which they are supposed to
               arrive in the United Arab Emirates. Moreover, Ibrahim is
               believed to be one of the men behind the terror attacks in
               Mumbai. If he really is involved, that alone would be reason
               enough for worry.

               Abnormal Circumstances

               Under normal circumstances, a message of this kind from the
               United States would no doubt be cause for serious-minded
               scrutiny, but it would not be a cause for alarm. For example,
               the BKA would go through all recent visa applications, and
               federal police officers would take a closer look at all the
               people entering Germany from Arab states. And the intelligence
               services would make the rounds to see if any of its partners
               had any helpful information on the matter.

               Indeed, under normal circumstances, there are always a lot of
               these communiques, most of which turn out to be false alarms.
               But these are no normal circumstances. Germany is in a state
               of emergency. Other countries, such as the United States,
               employ a system of official warning levels based on color
               codes that change -- from yellow to orange, for example --
               when the danger level is thought to increase. But, in Germany,
               the interior minister is the barometer: He consults with
               experts -- and then it is he who must call the shots.

               For the minister, a situation like this presents a dilemma. If
               he remains silent and something happens, he's a failure. If he
               makes loud warning and nothing happens, he's just a
               rabble-rouser trying to push through controversial tougher
               security laws. And, of course, the public never thanks you if
               everyday life continues in a normal, peaceful way.

               Absolute Security Remains a Pipe Dream

               When de Maiziere became Germany's interior minister, he had
               planned to lead the ministry in a level-headed way. For
               example, he prefers to use phrases such as "internal calm"
               rather than "internal security." And it was only six weeks ago
               that he uttered the sentence: "There's no cause for alarm."
               But, since then, the chorus of warning voices has only
               ballooned in size.

               This change in course is the combined result of everything
               that happened beforehand. It might very well turn out that the
               alleged Indian terror squad stays home and that the raid on
               the Reichstag never happens. But what will remain is a
               well-founded supposition that there is a critical mass of
               terrorists in the border region between Afghanistan and
               Pakistan that is thinking about launching attacks in Europe --
               and certainly in Germany, as well.

               Raw Nerves

               Given such circumstances, there is a major sense of alarm
               among German officials. Last Thursday, just a day after de
               Maiziere's shocking press conference, the BKA issued a press
               release "in connection with the current high-risk situation."
               It reported that a piece of suspicious luggage had been
               discovered a day earlier in Windhoek, the capital of Namibia,
               before being loaded onto a plane bound for Germany. The laptop
               bag contained batteries, wires, a detonator and a clock -- in
               other words, all the ingredients you need for a potential
               airborne catastrophe.

               It sounded as if another terror plot had been foiled. Had
               there been a plan to blow up Air Berlin Flight 7377 en route
               to Munich? And had the authorities, yet again, discovered an
               explosive device at the last minute? In the end, all the worry
               was unfounded. As it turned out, the piece of luggage was a
               test device built by a company that designs "real test"
               suitcases to be used to test security measures. It remains
               unclear who checked the bag in. But the fact that the BKA was
               so quick to go into alarm mode -- and publicly so -- has been
               a communications debacle.

               Of course, these days, nobody wants to be the one that wasn't
               sufficiently circumspect, the one who took too long to speak
               up. No one wants a replay of situations like the one from the
               beginning of November, when de Maiziere didn't know for hours
               whether the package that had arrived at the Chancellery
               contained actual explosives or was just a false alarm. Now,
               the threshold for sounding the alarm is already much lower.

               Bonded by Fear

               Of course, you can never be too sure. Over the last 12 months,
               a series of attacks concocted in the Afghan-Pakistani border
               region have been foiled in the West. For example, in May, a
               car bomb set in New York's Times Square by a man with ties to
               the Pakistani Taliban failed to properly detonate. In
               Copenhagen, al-Qaida had made plans to storm the offices of
               the Jyllands-Posten newspaper as revenge for its 2005
               publishing of caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad. In October
               2009, David Headley, an American citizen with Pakistani roots,
               was arrested after having already visited the newspaper's
               offices in order to scout them out before the planned attack.
               Other targets reportedly included the subway systems of New
               York City and Washington.

               On the other hand, absolute security is a pipe dream. For
               example, British authorities had even conducted rehearsals for
               how to respond to possible attacks. But, even so, when attacks
               claiming 56 lives (including those of four attackers) did
               strike London, on July 7, 2005, they were unable to prevent
               them. Likewise, US intelligence services had warned India a
               number of times that terrorists were planning attacks in
               Mumbai.

               The new situation in Germany has at least had one positive
               side effect: For the time being, the traditionally quarrelsome
               interior ministers from both the state and the federal levels
               have refrained from their usual bickering. Following informal
               talks held last Thursday in Hamburg, Minister Bruch of
               Rhineland-Palatinate noted that he had "never experienced such
               harmony within this group" that has apparently been bonded
               together by their shared fear.

               Translated from the German by Josh Ward

             --

             Sean Noonan

             Tactical Analyst

             Office: +1 512-279-9479

             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

             www.stratfor.com

           --

           - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

           Marko Papic

           Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

           STRATFOR

           700 Lavaca Street - 900

           Austin, Texas

           78701 USA

           P: + 1-512-744-4094

           marko.papic@stratfor.com

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

       --

       - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

       Marko Papic

       Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

       STRATFOR

       700 Lavaca Street - 900

       Austin, Texas

       78701 USA

       P: + 1-512-744-4094

       marko.papic@stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

   --

   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

   Marko Papic

   Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

   STRATFOR

   700 Lavaca Street - 900

   Austin, Texas

   78701 USA

   P: + 1-512-744-4094

   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-22 18:04:31</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1645973_re-discussion-germany-ct-the-story-behind-germany-s-terror.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1646125</id>
    <title>Re: S3/* - US/MIL - Pentagon Alerts House, Senate Panels to New Classified
 WikiLeaks Release - CALENDAR
</title>
    <description>   tactical nuke solves everything.

   On 11/24/2010 1:43 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     adam gadahn=terrorist.  see?

     On 11/24/10 1:41 PM, Michael Wilson wrote:

       no cause normally they just rape goats

       On 11/24/10 1:39 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         word.  i thought it went without saying rapist=terrorist. 

         On 11/24/10 1:38 PM, Michael Wilson wrote:

           he also a rapist apparently

           fucking swedish terrorists rapists

           On 11/24/10 1:37 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

             ok, now it's time to get rid of Assange, he wants to ruin
             thanksgiving weekend.  That equals terrorist in my book. 

             On 11/24/10 1:34 PM, Michael Wilson wrote:

               Pentagon Alerts House, Senate Panels to New Classified
               WikiLeaks Release
               http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-24/pentagon-warns-house-senate-defense-panels-of-more-wikileaks-documents.html
               By Tony Capaccio - Nov 24, 2010 12:23 PM CT

               The Pentagon warned the U.S. Senate and House Armed Services
               Committees that the website WikiLeaks.org "intends to release
               several hundred thousand" classified U.S. State Department
               cables as soon as Nov. 26.

               The documents "touch on an enormous range of very sensitive
               foreign policy issues," Assistant Secretary for Legislative
               Affairs Elizabeth King wrote yesterday in an e-mail to the
               defense panels.

               "We anticipate that the release could negatively impact U.S.
               foreign relations," she wrote, telling committee staff members
               that "we will brief you once we have a better understanding of
               what documents the WikiLeaks publication contains."

               King said The New York Times, the U.K.'s Guardian and Der
               Spiegel of Germany "are each currently working with WikiLeaks
               to coordinate the release of these State Department
               documents."

               These three publications were given advance access to two
               earlier WikiLeaks releases of U.S. military documents: almost
               400,000 related to the Iraq war dated between 2003 and 2010
               and about 75,000 from the same period on the Afghanistan war.
               The Iraq documents were published on Oct. 22 and the
               Afghanistan documents on July 25.

               `Raw Observations'

               When the Iraq documents were released, a Pentagon spokesman,
               Marine Colonel David Lapan, described them as "raw
               observations from the tactical level of combat operations" and
               said their publication posed a risk to national security. In
               her e-mail to lawmakers yesterday, King had similar comments
               about the State Department documents.

               "State Department cables by their nature contain everyday
               analysis and candid assessments that any government engages in
               as part of effective foreign relations," she wrote. "The
               publication of this classified information by WikiLeaks is an
               irresponsible attempt to wreak havoc and destabilize global
               security. It potentially jeopardizes lives."

               Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman confirmed that the e-mails
               had been sent to the two committees.

               The Pentagon "had indications for some time" that WikiLeaks
               planned to release more documents, Whitman said in an
               interview yesterday. "As a result, we felt we had a
               responsibility to notify key leaders with oversight
               responsibility of the department like we normally do," he
               said.

               State Department spokesman Philip J. Crowley said WikiLeaks
               has previously said that it plans to release additional
               classified documents.

               `Due Diligence'

               "We are doing due diligence," Crowley said in an e-mail
               yesterday. The department is "assessing the possible impact on
               our on-going diplomatic activity and notifying both Congress
               and other governments what may occur."

               Crowley told reporters today in a briefing that "we're in
               touch with our posts around the world," which "have begun the
               process of notifying governments that a release of documents
               is possible in the near future."

               The State Department has had similar conversations with
               members of Congress "to let them know what we are prepared
               for," Crowley said.

               "The kinds of cables that posts send to Washington are
               classified," he said. "They involve discussions we've had with
               government officials, with private citizens. They contain
               analysis, they contain a record of the day-to-day diplomatic
               activity that our personnel undertake."

               WikiLeaks receives confidential material that governments and
               business want to keep secret and posts the information on the
               Internet.

             --

             Sean Noonan

             Tactical Analyst

             Office: +1 512-279-9479

             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

             www.stratfor.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com


         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com


     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-24 20:53:12</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 03:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1646125_re-s3-us-mil-pentagon-alerts-house-senate-panels-to-new.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alex.posey@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bayless.parsley@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ben.west@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.wilson@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>matthew.powers@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1647210</id>
    <title>Re: BUDGET- Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks Survival
</title>
    <description>   OK.

   On 12/7/10 8:08 AM, Jenna Colley wrote:

     Yes, let's make this happen fast please since it's the buzz this
     morning.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Tuesday, December 7, 2010 6:06:55 AM
     Subject: BUDGET- Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks Survival

     Discussing the impact of Assange's arrest.

     600 words
     Will be out within a few minutes of our Tactical meeting.=C2=A0 Depends
     how long that runs.=C2=A0
     Hopefully before the 9am Annual.=C2=A0
     On 12/7/10 7:54 AM, scott stewart wrote:

       Let= =E2=80=99s do it.

       =C2= =A0

       From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
       [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.co= m] On Behalf Of Sean Noonan
       Sent: Tuesday, December 07, 2010 8:49 AM
       To: Analyst List
       Subject: PROPOSAL- Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks Survival

       =C2=A0

       Title: Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks Survival

       Type: 3- When I woke up at 5, there was no one saying anything on
       this.=C2=A0 I haven't checked but I'm guessing we are still way ahead
       of in providing analysis of what Assange's arrest will do to him/the
       organization

       Thesis: Assange was arrested in Britain December 7.=C2=A0 WikiLeaks is
       a new organization with one leader that has not
       institutionalized.=C2=A0 Assange's arest will test its ability to
       maintain itself as an institution--but that won't stop the current set
       of documents.=C2=A0

       600 words

       Current Discussion:

       =C2= =A0

       Lond= on Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and
       public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7.=C2=A0 He is
       due to appear in a court in Westminster soon to face charges of rape,
       accused by two woman in Sweden.=C2=A0 Charges of sexual assault rarely
       are passed through Interpol red notices, like this case, so this is no
       doubt about trying to disrupt WikiLeaks release of government
       documents.=C2=A0 While it's possible that Assange's arrest could
       disrupt the long-term viability of WikiLeaks, it will not stop the
       release of cables in the short-term and governments will now be
       concerned about what the organization may release in revenge.&lt;= /p&gt;

       =C2= =A0

       Lead= ership is extremely important in non-governmental organizations
       that have not institutionalized.=C2=A0 From terrorist grous= =C2=A0 to
       charities [LINK: http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090923=
       _death_top_indonesian_militant], these organizations often ebb and
       flow along with their founders.=C2=A0 WikiLeaks is a new organization
       that has a created a novel method for an old practice- leaking
       confidential government information in an attempt to influence
       politics.=C2=A0 Leaking will not go away with Assange's arrest, but
       WikiLeaks might.

       =C2= =A0

       Wiki= Leaks created itself with Assange as the only public face-- he
       leads supports, drives donations, and faces criticism.=C2= =A0 This
       has made many in the organization unhappy, and some have left it after
       disagreeing with him.=C2=A0 If Assange were to face charges in Sweden
       for sexual assault or new charges in the UK or US and was found
       guilty, WikiLeaks would still need someone to operate it.=C2=A0
       Assange may have someone waiting in the wings, but that is not
       evident.

       =C2= =A0

       Wiki= Leaks has also suffered logistically and as a brand.=C2=A0 As
       national governments put pressure on its infrastructure, its websites
       have been shut and most importantly its main source of funding-
       PayPal- has closed WikiLeaks account.=C2=A0 With such pressure and
       government monitoring, future leakers may be too afraid of getting
       intercepted and go elsewhere.=C2=A0 Moreover, this new set of
       documents have not worked out like Assange expected- the public is not
       angry at the State Department, but many are angry at Assange and his
       organization.

       =C2= =A0

       Assa= nge's arrest won't stop the continued leaks of this large batch
       of US State Department cables.=C2=A0 It also won't sh= ut down
       WikiLeaks, which still maintains its website and the ability to
       collect information from leakers.=C2=A0 So in the short-term,
       WikiLeaks will maintain.=C2=A0 The question remains if it has created
       a truly sustainable institutions-- one where leaders are replacable,
       members can adapt to changing circumstance, and representatives can
       aid and inspire new leakers.

       =C2= =A0

       If Asange is extradited to Sweden and tried of one count of unlawful
       coercion, two counts of sexual molestation and one count of rape, will
       he be able to maintain WikiLeaks image?=C2=A0 That is hard to say, but
       growing public criticism of him indicates his inability to grow
       WikiLeaks support base.=C2=A0 Western govrenments also fear whatever
       is contained in his ___ file, for which he threatens to release an
       encryption key if something happens to him.=C2=A0 WikiLeaks has
       already released its mo= st damaging documents-- its attempt to get
       public attention-- and they haven't amounted to much.=C2=A0 This n= ew
       file likely contains no more damaging information, but instead is full
       of names.=C2=A0 The names of sources who wi= ll be at risk and those
       of diplomats, military or intelligence officers who could lose their
       jobs.

       =C2= =A0

       Wiki= Leaks is now facing a conundrum that all new organizations
       do--the ability to maintain and transition leadership through adverse
       circumstances.=C2=A0 Maybe Assange will be released quickly-- STRATFOR
       cannot speak to the veracity of the charges against him-- but if he
       isn't, WikiLeaks will struggle to survive.

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.st= ratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratf= or.com

     --
     Jenna Colley
     STRATFOR
     Director, Content Publishing
     C: 512-567-1020
     F: 512-744-4334
     jenna.colley@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 15:09:08</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1647210_re-budget-assange-arrest-and-wikileaks-survival-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>jenna.colley@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>operations@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>opcenter@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1647507</id>
    <title>Re: Fwd: RE: UK arrests 5 under security law near nuclear site
</title>
    <description>   Uh, isn't what Stick said that if they had plans in the works they
   would've carried them out, not saved them for UBL's death??

   On 5/3/11 10:13 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

     -------- Original Message --------

     Subject: RE: UK arrests 5 under security law near nuclear site 
        Date: Tue, 3 May 2011 09:48:48 -0400                        
        From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;          
          To: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;                     

     We will be seeing many more of these actions in days to come. I'm
     getting pinged 24/7 by contacts/clients on the implications of UBL's
     demise.

      

     BTW: Nice piece from Scott. This is exactly the message we're sending
     out as well. IC has known since at least mid-2002 that AQ and other
     groups have (allegedly) had operations planned in the event UBL was
     killed/captured. In our estimation, soft targets overseas will be hit
     first. We're telling our clients that if terror groups are using ops
     plans that are already on the shelf, the surveillance they're likely to
     see around their facilities will be quick and dirty. Just a few runs for
     Red Light/Green Light verification. Telling all of them to get up on
     their toes and start looking for surveillance and get it into the
     TrapWire database for comparison. (Between you and me, we were seeing
     some really hinky stuff going on out west even before UBL takedown).

      

     Mike

      

     From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Tuesday, May 03, 2011 8:37 AM
     To: Michael Maness
     Subject: UK arrests 5 under security law near nuclear site

      

     UK arrests 5 under security law near nuclear site

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/03/us-britain-sellafield-idUSTRE74227A20110503?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=worldNews&amp;utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FworldNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+International%29

     LONDON | Tue May 3, 2011 6:40am EDT

     LONDON (Reuters) - Police said on Tuesday they had arrested five men
     close to the Sellafield nuclear reprocessing plant in northwest England
     under counter-terrorism laws.

     Cumbria police said the men were arrested on Monday after officers
     conducted a stop check on a vehicle near the site.

     The men are all aged in their 20s and from London, police said.

      

      

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-05-03 17:17:38</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1647507_re-fwd-re-uk-arrests-5-under-security-law-near-nuclear-site-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1648013</id>
    <title>Re: Anonymous Hack Brings Security Firm To Its Knees
</title>
    <description>   The illegality of hacking aside, these guys asked for it.

   On 2/17/11 9:38 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

   Anonymous Hack Brings Security Firm To Its Knees
   &lt;http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2011/02/16/13381=
 4783/how-anonymous-exacted-revenge-on-firm-that-threatened-to-out-them&gt;&lt;=
 /a&gt;




 http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2011/02/16/133814783/h=
 ow-anonymous-exacted-revenge-on-firm-that-threatened-to-out-them

 The hacktivist group Anonymous is at it again. This time, it has
 humiliated an Internet security firm that threatened to out the group's
 hierarchy.

 If you remember, Anonymous has been in the news, first, because in
 support of WikiLeaks, it undertook cyberattacks that brought down the
 websites of Visa and Mastercard. Second, because it brought down the
 sites of some government entities in Egypt and helped the
 anti-government protesters with technical help. Third, because as NPR's
 Martin Kaste reported, the FBI is hot on the group's heels
 &lt;http://www.np=
 r.org/2011/02/10/133644850/FBI-Tracks-Internet-Activists-Known-As-Anonymous=
 &gt;.
 (Kaste has more
 &lt;http://www.npr.org/=
 2011/02/16/133811429/e-mails-hacked-by-anonymous-raise-concerns&gt;
 on tonight's /All Things Considered/.)

 Today, the website ArsTechnica ran a piece
 =
 &lt;http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2011/02/anonymous-speaks-the-in=
 side-story-of-the-hbgary-hack.ars/&gt;
 that details how Anonymous methodically went after HBGary Federal's
 digital infrastructure. Earlier this month, HBGary Federal's CEO Aaron
 Barr said the company, which specializes in analyzing vulnerabilities in
 computer security for companies and even some government agencies, had
 undertaken an investigation of Anonymous and had used social media to
 unmask the group's most important people.

 /The Financial Times/ reported:

     Of a few hundred participants in operations, only about 30 are
     steadily active, with 10 people who "are the most senior and
     co-ordinate and manage most of the decisions," Mr. Barr told the
     Financial Times. That team works together in private internet relay
     chat sessions, through e-mail and in Facebook groups. Mr Barr said
     he had collected information on the core leaders, including many of
     their real names, and that they could be arrested if law enforcement
     had the same data.

 Barr said an HBGary representative was set to give a presentation at a
 security conference in San Francisco, but as soon as Anonymous got wind
 of their plans, it hacked into HBGary's servers, rifled through their
 e-mails and published them to the web. The group defaced HBGary's
 website and published the user registration database of another site
 owned by Greg Hoglund, owner of HBGary.

 Amazingly, reports ArsTechnica, Anonymous managed all this by exploiting
 easy and everyday security flaws. First, it found that the content
 management system =97 a program that allows for easy publishing to the web
 =97 had a security vulnerability. The group was able to get into the
 usernames and passwords from the database and, as ArsTechnica puts it,
 HBGary employees did not follow Internet best practices and used the
 same passwords over and over on different sites including their e-mail
 accounts, Twitter and LinkedIn accounts.

 If you're interested in the details of the operation, ArsTechnica does a
 great job at putting it in easy-to-understand words. But perhaps one of
 the more interesting things the piece manages to cull is a profile of
 the people behind Anonymous.

 The popular characterization has been that it's a bunch of kids. But
 ArsTechnica, which spoke to Anonymous members, says that:

     Anonymous is a diverse bunch: though they tend to be younger rather
     than older, their age group spans decades. Some may still be in
     school, but many others are gainfully employed office-workers,
     software developers, or IT support technicians, among other things.
     With that diversity in age and experience comes a diversity of
     expertise and ability.

 As for HBGary, the attacks forced it to pull out of the RSA Security
 conference in San Francisco, the biggest of its kind. The company posted
 a sign outside its booth
 &lt;ht=
 tp://www.zdnet.com/blog/security/hbgary-withdraws-from-rsa-after-embarrassi=
 ng-anonymous-hack/8181&gt;
 with the same note that's on its website
 &lt;http://www.hbgary.com/statement.htm&gt;:

     A group of aggressive hackers known as "Anonymous" illegally broke
     into computer systems and stole proprietary and confidential
     information from HBGary, Inc. This breach was in violation of
     federal and state laws, and stolen information was publicly released
     without our consent.

     In addition to the data theft, HBGary individuals have received
     numerous threats of violence including threats at our tradeshow booth.

     In an effort to protect our employees, customers and the RSA
     Conference community, HBGary has decided to remove our booth and
     cancel all talks.

     HBGary is continuing to work intensely with law enforcement on this
     matter and hopes to bring those responsible to justice.

     Thank you to all of our employees, our customers and the security
     community for your continued support.

     HBGary, Inc.

 Forbes reports
 =
 &lt;http://blogs.forbes.com/andygreenberg/2011/02/15/hbgary-execs-run-for-c=
 over-as-hacking-scandal-escalates/&gt;
 that HBGary has become "toxic," its clients and partners cutting ties.
 It reports that CEO Barr also canceled the talk at the B-Sides
 conference, which was supposed to be about Anonymous.



   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-02-17 16:44:21</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1648013_re-anonymous-hack-brings-security-firm-to-its-knees-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1648535</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2010-11-22 17:58:26</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1648535_re-discussion-germany-ct-the-story-behind-germany-s-terror.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1648871</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [OS] CHINA/CSM - Chinese media "told to tone down
 reports on Foxconn suicides" - HK press
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2010-05-28 16:56:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1648871_re-eastasia-os-china-csm-chinese-media-told-to-tone-down.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>michael.wilson@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1649504</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION- Russian spies update
</title>
    <description>   Or more likely a ploy to criticize Putin/the Russians.=C2=A0 Trying to get
   out there that the spies were in fact dangerous--and they were, but this
   is more of a political thing.=C2=A0

   The more I think about it and look back at the chain of events, this makes
   sense to me.=C2=A0 Gertz and the China Threat, Gertz and t= he Russia
   Threat, etc.=C2=A0
   On 12/2/10 3:09 PM, Ben West wrote:

     I would lean more towards the opinion that the Gertz leak is a ploy,
     like Fred pointed out. If there really were an active
     counter-intelligence investigation going on within the NSA, I can't
     imagine anyone wanting to get it leaked out. I guess it's a question of
     how specific this probe is. If they've got a specific person they're
     looking into, they'd want to keep it on lock-down. If they are just
     monitoring for suspicious activity, then I don't see how this leak
     reveals anything that isn't normal, everyday security efforts at the
     NSA.

     On 12/2/2010 2:50 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       that makes much more sense.=C2=A0 Thanks.=C2=A0

       On 12/2/10 2:49 PM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

         Putin's interview was taped Tues &amp; a few transcripts were
         circulating, so Gertz would have most likely seen it with nearly 2
         days to come up with something.

         On 12/2/10 2:40 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           -Putin said last night that the "deep-cover agents...who only
           become active during crises and when diplomatic ties are severed,
           when other forms of intelligence become ineffective or
           impossible.... their activity in no way undermined the interests
           of the United States."=C2=A0 We discussed last night how it seems
           he was covering for their mission.=C2=A0

           -Last night, just before Putin's interview Bill Gertz published an
           article that the NSA and DIA are investigating a possible
           infiltration orchestrated by one or more of the 10 russians.=C2=A0
           His source is a former intelligence official (presumably NSA, but
           not clear).=C2=A0 FBI is handling the CI investigation which means
           that they probably got some evidence from the spies or another
           outside source (My guess is NSA would handle this internally as
           long as it could).=C2=A0=

           -We haven't written on the information that came out in the last
           few weeks about Potoyev/Shcherbakov being the source for the
           intelligence that led to their capture.=C2=A0 These lea= ks could
           be a cover for something else, but it's also about time for us to
           correct/modify our point about Comrade J.=C2=A0 = In the very
           murky world of espionage, it's impossible to tell who exactly was
           responsible for fingering the investigation that came to light in
           May/June.=C2=A0

           Here's what we can say:
           The Gertz leak may be intentional to counter Putin's
           interview.=C2=A0 It also could be the truth, and it onl underlines
           that the Russians were no amateurs and were slowly working their
           way into US government and intelligence networks.=C2=A0 They work
           much differently than the West (or Bond/Bauer movies), so the fact
           they had no major pay-off at that point does not mean they
           couldn't be damaging.=C2=A0 Then there is George's important point
           from last night--that this group caught just as they were
           "sequencing" to a recruiting phase.=C2=A0 That could very well
           explain the timing, quick spy trade, and this current mole
           hunt.=C2=A0

           On 12/2/10 2:14 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

             I should have caught this in the morning.=C2=A0 This bit about
             NSA/DIA is very interesting and goes to George's argument last
             night.=C2=A0

             Also note theere is a ton of dirt in here on the Chinese and
             Manas in Kyrgyzstan, and some prediction for a new provocation
             by DPRK.

             We know Gertz has a bias and gets fed by certain people.=C2= =A0
             But that doens't mean this stuff is necessarily wrong.=C2=A0 =

             On 12/2/10 1:46 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

               Inside the Ring: Counterspies hunt Russian mole inside
               National Security Agency

               By Bill Gertz
               The Washington Times
               http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/dec/1/inside-the-rin=
               g-843880610/print/
               6:46 p.m., Wednesday, December 1, 2010

               The National Security Agency (NSA) is conducting a
               counterintelligence probe at its Fort Meade, Md., headquarters
               in a top-secret hunt for a Russian agent, according to a
               former intelligence official close to the agency.

               The former official said the probe grew out of the case of 10
               Russian "illegals," or deep-cover spies, who were uncovered
               last summer and sent back to Moscow after the defection of
               Col. Alexander Poteyev, a former SVR foreign intelligence
               officer who reportedly fled to the U.S. shortly before Russian
               President Dmitry Medvedev visited here in June.

               Col. Poteyev is believed to be the source who disclosed the
               U.S.-based agent network.

               NSA counterintelligence officials suspect that members of the
               illegals network were used by Russia's SVR spy agency to
               communicate with one or more agents inside the agency, which
               conducts electronic intelligence gathering and code-breaking.

               One sign that the probe is fairly advanced is that FBI
               counterintelligence agents are involved in the search.

               "They are looking for one or more Russian spies that NSA is
               convinced reside at Fort Meade and possibly other DoD intel
               offices, like DIA [Defense Intelligence Agency]," the former
               official said. "NSA is convinced that at least one is at NSA."

               Some of the 10 illegals who were posing as U.S. citizens
               helped service Russian agents working inside the U.S.
               intelligence community, the former official said.

               No other details of the investigation could be learned.

               NSA spokeswoman Vanee Vines said in e-mail: "I don't have any
               information to provide regarding your query."

               An FBI spokesman had no immediate comment.

               NSA has been the victim of several damaging spy cases dating
               back to the 1960s, when two officials defected to the Soviet
               Union.

               In 1985, NSA analyst Ronald Pelton was caught spying for
               Moscow. He had provided the Soviets with extremely damaging
               secrets, including details of an underwater electronic
               eavesdropping program on Russian military cables called
               "Operation Ivy Bells."

               China in Kyrgyzstan

               A confidential State Department cable made public this week
               highlights China's role in the U.S.-led war on terrorism.

               The U.S. ambassador in far-off Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, confronted
               China's ambassador about a covert attempt by Beijing to bribe
               the government there to shut down the strategic U.S. military
               transit base at Manas in exchange for $3 billion in cash.

               The Feb. 13, 2009, cable signed by Ambassador Tatiana C.
               Gfoeller revealed that Chinese Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan Zhang
               Yannian "did not deny categorically" the covert cash offer to
               close the base, which is a major transit and refueling point
               for U.S. troops and supplies heading into northern
               Afghanistan.

               "After opening pleasantries, the ambassador mentioned that
               Kyrgyz officials had told her that China had offered a $3
               billion financial package to close Manas Air Base and asked
               for the ambassador's reaction to such an allegation," the
               cable stated.&lt;= br&gt;
               "Visibly flustered, Zhang temporarily lost the ability to
               speak Russian and began spluttering in Chinese to the silent
               aide diligently taking notes right behind him. Once he had
               recovered the power of Russian speech, he inveighed against
               such a calumny, claiming that such an idea was impossible,
               China was a staunch opponent of terrorism, and China's
               attitude toward Kyrgyzstan's decision to close Manas was one
               of 'respect and understanding.' "

               The cable highlights what observers say has been China's
               behind-the-scenes, anti-U.S. strategy of seeking to undermine
               U.S. global counterterrorism efforts.

               Mr. Zhang insisted that China's interest in Kyrgyzstan, which
               shares a border with China's restive Xinjiang province, is
               purely commercial. He then said China rejected calls by "some
               Kyrgyz" for China to set up a military base there to
               counterbalance Russian and U.S. influence.

               "We want no military or political advantage. Therefore, we
               wouldn't pay $3 billion for Manas," Mr. Zhang was quoted as
               saying.

               Chinese intelligence personnel, however, are another story,
               according to U.S. officials who have said Beijing's
               intelligence presence is very large in the country.

               Mr. Zhang advised the U.S. ambassador on how to keep the base.
               "Just give them $150 million in cash [per year, and] you will
               have the base," he said.

               The Chinese official also said several times during the
               meeting that a "revolution in China" is possible if the
               economy failed to improve and millions remain unemployed.

               "In our experience, talk of revolution at home is taboo for
               Chinese," the cable said.

               However, observers have noted that Chinese diplomats used
               similar language in meetings with U.S. officials as scare
               tactics, warning of a coming Chinese collapse as a way to
               stave off political pressure for democratic change.
               Braced for attack

               Amid high tensions, U.S. and allied militaries are braced for
               another North Korean attack - more artillery shelling, missile
               test launches or possibly another underground nuclear blast.

               The next incident is expected in coming days after U.S.-South
               Korean joint naval exercises in the Yellow Sea that ended on
               Wednesday, said intelligence sources familiar with the region.

               North Korean military forces remain on heightened alert, as do
               South Korean forces, and the sources said the South Korean
               military is set to counter any further artillery strikes.

               One possible target being watched closely is the northernmost
               of South Korea's five northwest islands, called Baengnyeong
               Island, a major intelligence base that has been a safe harbor
               for North Korean defectors fleeing the communist state in the
               past.

               South Korea's military is prepared to carry out aggressive
               counterattacks against any new strikes.

               Intelligence analysis of the Nov. 23 artillery attack on
               Yeonpyeong Island, which killed four people and wounded 17,
               indicates that the surprise bombardment is connected to the
               ongoing leadership succession of Kim Jong-il's third son, Kim
               Jong-un, as well as to the recent disclosure by the North
               Koreans of a covert uranium-enrichment program.

               Kim Jong-un was recently promoted and has aligned himself with
               North Korean generals involved in artillery forces, according
               to the intelligence sources. Reports from North Korea
               indicated that both Kims visited the 4th Corps, whose unit
               carried out an artillery barrage before the Yeonpyeong attack.

               Gay training

               The Pentagon working group on open gays in the military sets
               out an ambitious training program to ensure that troops treat
               their colleagues, gay or straight, with dignity.

               The group, led by Army Gen. Carter Ham and Pentagon General
               Counsel Jeh Johnson, appears to shy away from what some might
               call "sensitively training."

               The report's implementation plan states that "service members
               are not expected to change their personal religious or moral
               beliefs; however, they are expected to treat all others with
               dignity and respect, consistent with the core values that
               already exist within each service."

               But objections to homosexuality are not grounds to request a
               transfer, reports special correspondent Rowan Scarborough.

               Says the report: Service "members do not have the right to
               refuse duty or duty assignments based on a moral objection to
               another's sexual orientation. Service members remain obligated
               to follow orders that involve interaction with others who are
               gay or lesbian, even if an unwillingness to do so is based on
               strong, sincerely held, moral or religious beliefs."

               And it states that "harassment or abuse based on sexual
               orientation is unacceptable. All service members are to treat
               one another with dignity and respect regardless of sexual
               orientation."

               Gay survey

               While the Pentagon working group concluded the negative impact
               on the force would be "low" if gays serve openly, its survey
               results present a different story.

               Republicans likely will cite some of these numbers in arguing
               in the Senate, where a vote on repeal is pending, that now is
               not the time to end the "don't ask, don't tell" policy, as two
               wars are being fought.

               The most striking number is that nearly 60 percent of combat
               soldiers and Marines believe open gays will hurt unit
               readiness.

               There are other similar findings, reports special
               correspondent Mr. Scarborough.

               Of respondents who said they served under a leader they
               believed to be gay, 46 percent said it had a "mostly negative"
               effect on the unit's performance. Only 8 percent termed it
               "mostly positive."

               Of all troops asked how repeal will affect their future, 23
               percent said they will either leave the military sooner than
               planned or think about leaving. For Marines, the percentage
               was nearly 40 percent.

               If the figures are accurate, repeal would result in a surge of
               troop departures and leave the military scrambling to fill the
               ranks.

               A quarter of those surveyed also said they would shower at a
               different time if someone they believed to be gay were using
               the facility.

               Gay-rights advocates cite the survey's most publicized result:
               Seventy percent of all troops - support and combat - say
               repeal will have a positive, mixed or no effect on the force.

               =C2=A9 Copyright 2010 The Washington Times, LLC. Click he= re
               for reprint permission.
               --

               Sean Noonan

               Tactical Analyst

               Office: +1 512-279-9479

               Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

               Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

               www.stratfor.com=

             --

             Sean Noonan

             Tactical Analyst

             Office: +1 512-279-9479

             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

             www.stratfor.com&lt;/= p&gt;

           --

           Sean Noonan

           Tactical Analyst

           Office: +1 512-279-9479

           Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

           Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

           www.stratfor.com

         --
         Lauren Goodrich
         Senior Eurasia Analyst
         STRATFOR
         T: 512.744.4311
         F: 512.744.4334
         lauren.goo= drich@stratfor.com
         www.stratfor.com&lt;/= font&gt;

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

 --=20
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-02 22:19:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1649504_re-discussion-russian-spies-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1649714</id>
    <title>PROPOSAL- Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks Survival
</title>
    <description>   Title: Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks Survival

   Type: 3- When I woke up at 5, there was no one saying anything on this.  I
   haven't checked but I'm guessing we are still way ahead of in providing
   analysis of what Assange's arrest will do to him/the organization

   Thesis: Assange was arrested in Britain December 7.  WikiLeaks is a new
   organization with one leader that has not institutionalized.  Assange's
   arest will test its ability to maintain itself as an institution--but that
   won't stop the current set of documents. 

   600 words

   Current Discussion:

    

   London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and public
   spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7.  He is due to appear in a
   court in Westminster soon to face charges of rape, accused by two woman in
   Sweden.  Charges of sexual assault rarely are passed through Interpol red
   notices, like this case, so this is no doubt about trying to disrupt
   WikiLeaks release of government documents.  While it's possible that
   Assange's arrest could disrupt the long-term viability of WikiLeaks, it
   will not stop the release of cables in the short-term and governments will
   now be concerned about what the organization may release in revenge.

    

   Leadership is extremely important in non-governmental organizations that
   have not institutionalized.  From terrorist grous  to charities [LINK:
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090923_death_top_indonesian_militant],
   these organizations often ebb and flow along with their founders. 
   WikiLeaks is a new organization that has a created a novel method for an
   old practice- leaking confidential government information in an attempt to
   influence politics.  Leaking will not go away with Assange's arrest, but
   WikiLeaks might.

    

   WikiLeaks created itself with Assange as the only public face-- he leads
   supports, drives donations, and faces criticism.  This has made many in
   the organization unhappy, and some have left it after disagreeing with
   him.  If Assange were to face charges in Sweden for sexual assault or new
   charges in the UK or US and was found guilty, WikiLeaks would still need
   someone to operate it.  Assange may have someone waiting in the wings, but
   that is not evident.

    

   WikiLeaks has also suffered logistically and as a brand.  As national
   governments put pressure on its infrastructure, its websites have been
   shut and most importantly its main source of funding- PayPal- has closed
   WikiLeaks account.  With such pressure and government monitoring, future
   leakers may be too afraid of getting intercepted and go elsewhere. 
   Moreover, this new set of documents have not worked out like Assange
   expected- the public is not angry at the State Department, but many are
   angry at Assange and his organization.

    

   Assange's arrest won't stop the continued leaks of this large batch of US
   State Department cables.  It also won't shut down WikiLeaks, which still
   maintains its website and the ability to collect information from
   leakers.  So in the short-term, WikiLeaks will maintain.  The question
   remains if it has created a truly sustainable institutions-- one where
   leaders are replacable, members can adapt to changing circumstance, and
   representatives can aid and inspire new leakers.

    

   If Asange is extradited to Sweden and tried of one count of unlawful
   coercion, two counts of sexual molestation and one count of rape, will he
   be able to maintain WikiLeaks image?  That is hard to say, but growing
   public criticism of him indicates his inability to grow WikiLeaks support
   base.  Western govrenments also fear whatever is contained in his ___
   file, for which he threatens to release an encryption key if something
   happens to him.  WikiLeaks has already released its most damaging
   documents-- its attempt to get public attention-- and they haven't
   amounted to much.  This new file likely contains no more damaging
   information, but instead is full of names.  The names of sources who will
   be at risk and those of diplomats, military or intelligence officers who
   could lose their jobs.

    

   WikiLeaks is now facing a conundrum that all new organizations do--the
   ability to maintain and transition leadership through adverse
   circumstances.  Maybe Assange will be released quickly-- STRATFOR cannot
   speak to the veracity of the charges against him-- but if he isn't,
   WikiLeaks will struggle to survive.

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 14:49:14</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1649714_proposal-assange-arrest-and-wikileaks-survival-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1649726</id>
    <title>FOR EDIT- Assange Arrest
</title>
    <description>   *thanks to all for the very helpful comments. 

   Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks Survival

   Display: the Douchiest picture of Assange possible.  

    

   Summary:

   WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange was arrested in Britain December 7,
   following an Interpol Red Notice based on a Swedish warrant.  WikiLeaks is
   a new organization with one leader that has not institutionalized.
    Assange's arrest will test its ability to maintain itself as an
   institution, but the concept of leaking documents on the internet will
   continue.  

    

   Analysis:

   London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and public
   spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7 when he turned himself in.
    He is due to appear in a court in Westminster soon to face a hearing over
   charges against him in Sweden, and possible extradition.  There is
   considerable interest in what this can mean for his organization.  While
   it's possible that Assange's arrest could disrupt the long-term viability
   of WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release of cables in the short-term and
   will not stop similar future leaks via the internet.

    

   Leadership can be extremely important in non-governmental organizations
   that have not institutionalized.  From &lt;terrorist groups&gt; [LINK:
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090923_death_top_indonesian_militant] to
   charities, new organizations often ebb and flow along with their founders.
    WikiLeaks organized a new method for an old practice- leaking
   confidential government information in an attempt to influence politics.

    

   Assange created WikiLeaks with himself as the only public face-- he leads
   supporters, drives donations, gives interviews and faces criticism. There
   have been reports of internal dissent and tensions, and in one interview
   with CNN, discussion of the organizations internal politics seemed to
   touch a nerve with Assange.  If Assange were to face charges in Sweden for
   sexual assault or new charges in the UK or US and was found guilty,
   WikiLeaks would still need someone to operate it.  Assange may have
   someone waiting in the wings, but that is not evident.

    

   WikiLeaks has also suffered logistically.  As national governments put
   pressure on its infrastructure, its websites have been shut down and most
   importantly a major source of funding, PayPal, has closed WikiLeaks'
   account (Mastercard has also banned payments from its card to WikiLeaks).
   It is also not clear whether the events of the last few months will
   encourage or deter other potential leakers from approaching Wikileaks as
   opposed to other organizations (especially if they dislike or disagree
   with Assange.  Moreover, this new set of documents have not worked out
   like Assange expected- the U.S. public is not angry at the State
   Department, but many are angry at Assange and his organization. [LINK:
   http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical_diary/20101206_geopolitics_continue_despite_wikileaks]

   Immediately following Assange's arrest, WikiLeaks spokesperson Kristinn
   Hrafnsson said that it would not stop the group's operations. Indeed,
   whether Assange remains behind bars or not, it most likely will not stop
   the continued leaks of this large batch of US State Department cables.  It
   also will not shut down WikiLeaks, which still maintains its website
   (albeit currently on a Swiss server, after its initial site's were
   deactivated) and the ability to collect information from leakers.  So in
   the short-term, WikiLeaks will continue.  The question remains if Assange
   created a truly sustainable institution-- one where leaders are
   replaceable, members can adapt to changing circumstance, and
   representatives can aid and inspire new leakers.  Will leakers continue to
   go to the, or choose other organizations?

    

   If Assange is extradited to Sweden and tried of one count of unlawful
   coercion, two counts of sexual molestation and one count of rape, the
   question is how much WikiLeaks image will be damaged.  He may try to use
   prison time- especially before trial- to develop his image as a martyr,
   but this can always backfire.  If WikiLeaks, however, is not tied to his
   image, it will be much more sustainable as an organization.  

    

   Western governments also fear whatever is contained in his "insurance"
   file, for which he threatens to release an encryption key if something
   happens to him.  The file was released across the internet and has been
   downloaded by countless number of people.  What it contains is still
   secret, but WikiLeaks may have threatened the US government and others
   with clues to its contents.  WikiLeaks has likely already released its
   most damaging documents in an attempt to get public attention.  This new
   file then probably does not contain higher-level secret information, but
   instead may be full of names.  Those names being sources who will be at
   risk and those of diplomats, military or intelligence officers who could
   lose their jobs or even lives.  These people who could be adversely
   affected by the release of the insurance file also pose another conundrum
   for wikileaks. Exposing them and impacting them in a vindictive manner
   could further tarnish Assange and Wikileaks in the eyes of the
   international public, to include potential financial and information
   contributors.  

    

   WikiLeaks is now facing a conundrum that all new organizations do--the
   ability to maintain and transition leadership through adverse
   circumstances.  Maybe Assange will be released quickly-- STRATFOR cannot
   speak to the veracity of the charges against him-- but if he isn't,
   WikiLeaks survival is brought into question.  But even if WikiLeaks
   disappears, the organizational concept will still continue, and leaks
   along with it.  WikiLeaks has only demonstrated the ability new technology
   has created to transfer such large quantities of documents, and there is
   no reason other organizations will not make use of the same technology.  

    

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 16:15:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1649726_for-edit-assange-arrest-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1649765</id>
    <title>Re: interview request - John Batchelor Show
</title>
    <description>   this went pretty well.  let me know if you find out what time it will
   air.  I didn't see his website updated yet.

   thanks
   On 12/7/10 1:37 PM, Kyle Rhodes wrote:

     Date: TUESDAY 7

     Time:    415   PM Eastern Time

     recorded for radio

     Re

     THE ASSANGE ARREST AND WIKILEAKS' SURVIVAL

     -------- Original Message --------

     Subject: John Batchelor Show                    
        Date: Tue, 7 Dec 2010 14:06:07 -0500         
        From: John Batchelor &lt;tippaine@gmail.com&gt;    
          To: Kyle Rhodes &lt;kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com&gt; 

     Hi
     ask to interview
     analyst
     Date: TUESDAY 7
     Time:    415   PM Eastern Time
     Re
     THE ASSANGE ARREST AND WIKILEAKS' SURVIVAL

     Summary
     WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange surrendered to authorities in Britain
     on Dec. 7, following an Interpol Red Notice based on a Swedish arrest
     warrant. WikiLeaks is a relatively young organization with one leader
     and has not institutionalized a set of practices and protocols that
     guarantee its survival even if the personnel changes. Assange's arrest
     will test the organization's ability to maintain itself, but the use of
     the Internet to leak documents will continue.

     Analysis
     need two phone numbers, landline and mobile, and email contact as well.
     thanks
     John Batchelor
     Studio backup 212 268 5730
     www.JohnBatchelorShow.com
     WABC Radio Network
     2 Penn Plaza
     NYC 10021
     --
     Thank you,
     John
     John Batchelor Show
     www.JohnBatchelorShow.com
     WABC Radio Network
     212-613-3800
     2 Penn Plaza
     NY, NY 10017

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 22:45:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1649765_re-interview-request-john-batchelor-show-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1651527</id>
    <title>Re: FOR FAST COMMENT and EDIT- CAT 3- Tretyakov dead
</title>
    <description>   And this - from the article by Comrade J's author - would seem to confirm
   Lauren's thoughts:

   That autopsy has now been completed and it showed no evidence of foul
   play, according to an FBI official who spoke to me off-the-record. Helen
   said her husband died from massive cardiac arrest.

   Lauren Goodrich wrote:

     But it is a source who said they're connected... not proven, right? I am
     REALLY wary to say they were connected until I see the intel.
     Also, he was 53.... Russian age of death.
     Sean Noonan wrote:

       He died two weeks before the FBI made their arrests, and about a week
       before they put undercover operations in place to make some of them. 
       The two are related.  Whether it was because the FBI has evidence of a
       Russian operation, or they were suspicious enough to 'shake the trees'
       and have bungled the whole thing, we don't know. 

       I will make this more clear in Edit. 

       Rodger Baker wrote:

         So what are we saying with this piece? that someone we knew was dead
         is dead, it happened before these arrests. Are we trying to suggest
         he was murdered? are we trying to say his death led to the arrests
         (and if so, why?)? I am not sure the purpose of what this piece is
         trying to say. What is the significance of teh death of an old
         defector a month ago?
         On Jul 9, 2010, at 9:41 AM, scott stewart wrote:

           when? why didn't we publish it then?
            
           --We were asked not to by our sources in the government.
            
           From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On
           Behalf Of Karen Hooper
           Sent: Friday, July 09, 2010 10:36 AM
           To: analysts@stratfor.com
           Subject: Re: FOR FAST COMMENT and EDIT- CAT 3- Tretyakov dead
            

           On 7/9/10 10:26 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
           Tactical Team production.  

           Summary

           Sergei Tretyakov,  a former high level Russian intelligence
           officer who defected to the United States, was announced dead by
           Washington's WTOP Radio, July 9.  Tretyakov died on June 13, days
           before the arrest of 10 alleged Russian spies, fueling suspicion
           that the two events are somehow connected.  His wife, however, has
           said he died of natural causes.  

           Analysis

           In STRATFOR's &lt;Security and Intelligence Weekly published June 30,
           2010http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100630_dismantling_suspected_russian_intelligence_operation&gt;,
           we raised the connection between the initiation of the
           investigation of the eleven individuals accused of acting as
           unregistered agents of a foreign government  and a former Russian
           Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) defector, Sergei Tretyakov.
           Tretyakov worked publicly as a first secretary in Russia's UN
           mission in New York but was in fact a Colonel in Russian's Foreign
           Intelligence Service (SVR). He is known to have passed information
           to the FBI from 1997 until the time he officially defected to the
           US in October, 2000. According to the criminal complaints issued
           June 25, surveillance of some of the individuals began in January,
           2000. It is important to note that while this connection is
           circumstantial - Tretyakov was in a high level position at the SVR
           at the same time. This connection does not confirm that Tretyakov
           indeed outed the accused individuals, but it is possible that
           Tretyakov was aware of some, if not all, of the alleged Russian
           agents' role in the United States and may have passed along this
           information to U.S. intelligence officials. Generally, "illegals",
           as these 11 agents are called, would be run out of a different
           department of the SVR as Tretyakov.  Just as well, seven of them
           were allegedly run through SVR officers at the UN Mission, and
           those officers Tretyakov would have had knowledge of.  

           After every well-known Russian intelligence defector except
           Tretyakov was quoted in the media on the Russian spy case,
           we when? why didn't we publish it then? dug further into public
           records searches of Sergei Tretyakov and found that his records
           state that he died June 13, 2010. Sarasota County Clerk's office
           lists a death certificate filed under the name of Sergei Tretyakov
           on June 25, 2010. No cause of death is immediately available from
           those records. Tretyakov was 53 years old. 

           The first public confirmation of Tretyakov's death came through
           WTOP from Tretyakov's wife, Yelena (Helen). She told reporter JJ
           Green, who interviewed Sergei in the spring of 2010, that he died
           of natural causes. It is very significant that there was no major
           media coverage of Tretyakov's death until today, when a &lt;US-Russia
           spy swap is being completed&gt;
           [LINK: http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100708_russia_us_possible_spy_swap].
           Tretyakov was a high profile defector. A book telling his story of
           working for the Russian intelligence agency and defecting to the
           US was published in January, 2008. He has appeared on numerous
           national news shows and has spoken very candidly on Russia's
           intelligence apparatus and claims that Russia is still very much a
           hostile enemy of the US. 

           His apparent death also comes just two weeks before the FBI
           arrested ten individuals accused of acting as unregistered agents
           of a foreign government - in this case, Russia. The eleventh
           individual, Robert Christopher Mestos, was arrested in Cyprus June
           29, but he arrived in Cyprus June 17, just four days after the
           apparent death of Tretyakov.

           So far, we can only raise curious connections and point out that
           the timing of all of this is highly interesting. Simply the fact
           that it appears that Tretyakov is dead is extremely newsworthy in
           itself [newsworthy perhaps, but is it significant, and why from a
           Stratfor point of view outside a sitrep?]. The connections
           outlined here do not prove anything, but they are important to
           keep in mind as we continue our investigation into the 11 accused
           non-declared agents arrested June 27 and 29. 

           So far there is no indication rephrase, since his wife said
           natural causes. i'd say 'proof' or evidence for how he died of how
           Tretyakov died.  He was 53 years oldyou said that above and,
           according to the book Comrade J, he did have high blood pressure,
           it is perfectly feasible that he died innocently due to health
           complications. However, the fact that Tretyakov was a high profile
           Russian intelligence defector means that nothing can be taken for
           granted in this case. Russian defectors and dissidents have a
           history of turning up dead, often under very auspicious
           [auspicious?] circumstances.  Below is a list of previous
           defectors and dissidents who have died unusual deaths abroad:
           o     Oleg Gordievsky claims he survived an attempted poisoning
           with Thallium in London in November, 2007. He was a KGB officer in
           London but spied for the UK from 1968-1985. 
           o     Alexander Litvinenko died November 2006 from polonium 210
           poisoning in the UK. He was granted asylum in the UK after he
           claims that the FSB ordered him to kill a Russian oligarch. He
           published a book telling his story in 2002.
           o     Viktor Yuschenko, a pro-western former Ukrainian president,
           claims to have survived an alleged dioxin poisoning attempt while
           running for president in September, 2004.
           o     Yuri Shchekochikhin, a member of the Russian duma, died days
           before going to talk to the FBI in July, 2003. Suspected use of
           polonium 210

           At this point, we have no evidence that Tretyakov was
           murdered getting a little repetitive, we can only provide context
           within which his death occurred. It will require medical testing
           and investigation to determine the nature of Tretyakov's death and
           whether or not it was caused by foul play. 

           These claims which claims? are all made by Russian defectors, and
           of course have not been confirmed by Moscow.  At this point, we
           cannot conclude anything similar happened to Tretyakov, especially
           since his wife has said he died from natural causes.  This is
           completely plausible, but the chain of events is
           suspicious.  repetition

 --

 Sean Noonan

 Tactical Analyst

 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

 www.stratfor.com

  

            
           -- 
           Karen Hooper
           Director of Operations
           512.744.4300 ext. 4103
           STRATFOR
           www.stratfor.com

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

  

     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     Stratfor
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-07-09 17:18:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1651527_re-for-fast-comment-and-edit-cat-3-tretyakov-dead-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1652808</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat
</title>
    <description>   thoughts?

   On 11/22/10 11:00 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

     It is up to you and CT how you approach this. On the short-term, this
     looks like something you can handle without me. If you want to dabble in
     the more long-term view of what is going on here, I would love to help.

     On 11/22/10 10:58 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

       In the more long-term, I think an analysis of the German intelligence
       agencies would be good too. They have been pretty decimated by the
       Cold War and by all the problems associated with running an
       intelligence agency in a post-Gestapo country. If Germany is ever
       going to become a world power again, however, they would need to
       overcome these deamons as well. That is sort of the last straw for
       Germany, the one that is going to be most sensitive to overcome. But
       perhaps this case may illustrate how they are already overcoming these
       issues.

       On 11/22/10 10:50 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         Main problem is that Der Spiegel is just that good, they've at least
         touched on most of what I would want to say about it.  The main
         thing here is how the politics of a terror threat/alert coincide
         with the reality of the threat itself. 

         We saw that Germany was fairly relaxed bout the earlier threat in
         Europe released by the US.  I'm not sure if that was the same as the
         info that the FBI passed over about this shia group, Saif (I don't
         know anything about them).  But something changed, as we noted last
         week in their interpretation.  That seems to go down to this virtual
         walk-in.  The one thing I was left confused about is whether BKA had
         ever been in contact with this source before.  It sounds like he
         cold called them.  It's common knowledge that walk-ins, rather than
         recruits, are nearly always the best sources.  But at the same time,
         they are very suspicious as double agents.  If this was a US source
         they would be freaking the fuck out after having Al-Balawi turn on
         them.  The germans seem to have cooler heads, but they will be
         working 24/7 to verify the source (let me make another plug for John
         Lecarre's A Most Wanted Man here, most of his career was in
         Germany). 

         They've clearly got enough corroborating information that they
         consider this a real threat.  But politically they are faced with
         the universal 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' alert
         problem.  If the Interior ministry doesn't say something, they will
         be liable if an attack occurs.  Look at the constant press over
         information on the warning intelligence for Mumbai.  As we've said
         before, simply issuing the warning may help to deter the attackers. 

         The real important bit here, is that it seems the germans have
         fairly good intelligence.  While this attack is still not happening
         tomorrow, they have a lot of details about what might be in the
         works, rather than a single-source intercept that indicates some
         vague threat.  It seems they've increased security pretty well at
         the Bundestag, and want to add to the presence at any possible
         target.  This is where we seem them scrambling, and where their
         intelligence holes are. 

         The task now for the germans is to verify this source.  Maybe even
         pick him up and put him on ice somewhere (Fred/Stick?), not in
         GErmany but in Pakistan/Afghanistan.  That will require some
         cooperation with either/both the Americans and Pakistanis.  They
         also need to verify all the bio information they have on these 4-6
         guys trying to get into germany and watch travelers very carefully. 
         The germans seem to be very good at surveilling these threats within
         Germany, so their best luck may come when one of the guys overseas
         contacts a local already under surveillance. 

         At minimum, this could be a pretty interesting tearline this week. 
         Both the walk-in issues and the CIA/FBI liaison conflicts that I
         havne't gotten into here. 
         On 11/22/10 10:34 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

           Any thoughts on where you guys are thinking of going with this?

           Der Spiegel article is indeed interesting.

           On 11/22/10 9:28 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

             Great report from Der Spiegel (thanks Mikey).  I suggest anyone
             interested to read the whole thing.  They ask the right
             questions, and while not as much detail as I hoped, give us a
             much better understanding on the threat in Germany. 

             The BKA (germany's FBI) must be extremely busy verifying the
             details of this virtual walk-in.  It obviously caused the
             germans to shit their pants.  But the real questions are buried
             in the article---how real was this plot, how real is the source,
             is the source just trying to get back to the land of brezeln and
             bier? Trying to double-cross them somehow?

             Also note the tip off from the FBI (cue fred), not the usual CIA
             liaison with BND. 

             For Eurasia, there's a lot in here on the internal politics of
             the interior minister position, and the relation between state
             and federal government. 

             On 11/22/10 8:55 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

               -------- Original Message --------

                Subject: [OS] GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror    
                         Threat                                               
                   Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 08:38:21 -0600                      
                   From: Graham Smith &lt;graham.smith@stratfor.com&gt;             
               Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                        
                     To: os@stratfor.com                                      

                11/22/2010 11:38 AM
               Fears of a Mumbai Redux
               The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat

               http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,730377,00.html
               By Matthias Bartsch, Yassin Musharbash and Holger Stark

               Germany is currently in a state of high alert. Security
               officials are warning that they have concrete information
               pointing to a possible terror attack on the federal parliament
               building in Berlin, a massively popular tourist attraction.
               The days of Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere's reserved
               stances in dealing with such warnings appear to be over.

               The call came from abroad, and the man speaking hurriedly on
               the other end of the line sounded as if he feared for his
               life. He wanted out, he told the officers of the German
               Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) -- out of the terrorist
               scene. He wanted to come back to Germany, back to his family.
               Then he asked if German officials could help him.

               Right now, they're trying to do just that. The BKA is pursuing
               the case under the codename "Nova." The apparently remorseful
               man could be an important possible whistleblower from a
               dangerous region of the globe. In fact, he is also the most
               recent reason why German Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere
               put the entire country in a state of fright on Wednesday.

               During a hastily called press conference that day, de Maiziere
               stated that Germany faced the threat of terrorist attacks that
               might be launched against the country at some point in
               November. As he put it, Germany is "presently dealing with a
               new situation."
               Just two days earlier, the source had called for the third
               time in just a short period and provided more information. He
               told officials that a small group of terrorists wanted to
               conduct a raid on the Reichstag building in Berlin, which
               houses the federal parliament, and that that was only one of
               the targets included in their attack plans.

               Germany on High Alert

               Since then, Germany has been in a state of high alert. The
               Reichstag is surrounded with barricades and its popular cupola
               tourist attraction temporarily closed to visitors. Police
               armed with submachine guns are patrolling major railway
               stations and airports. And vacations have been called off for
               officials at the country's security agencies. Wherever they
               have cause for doing so, the authorities are secretly
               monitoring communications, conducting surveillance operations
               and launching undercover investigations. At the moment,
               investigators seem to be at a loss; their modus operandi:
               "We'll prod the shrubs and see if we can flush out any birds."

               "There is cause for worry, but no cause for hysteria," de
               Maiziere assured his listeners. But while he has never been
               much of an agitator, his colleagues at the state level have
               described the situation in much more drastic terms. Uwe
               Schu:nemann, for example, who has been the interior minister
               of the northwestern state of Lower Saxony since 2003, stated
               that he had "never experienced a heightened security situation
               like this one." And Berlin Senator for the Interior Ehrhart
               Ko:rting, whose position is tantamount to that of a government
               minister in the city-state, has already even gone so far as to
               call on the inhabitants of the German capital city to report
               suspicious-looking individuals of Arab origin to the police.
               "If you suddenly see three somewhat strange-looking men who
               are new to your neighborhood, who hide their faces and who
               only speak Arabic," Ko:rting said, "you should report them to
               the authorities."

               Under heightened pressure, officials in Germany's 16 federal
               states are now checking to see when and where major events are
               scheduled to take place this coming week within their
               boundaries. And nothing suggested as a possible target is
               being discounted, no matter how unlikely. For example,
               officials in Rhineland-Palatinate warned the state's interior
               minister, Karl Peter Burch, that there was always a lot going
               on at IKEA stores on Saturdays.[WTF]

               Serenity, Scaremongering and Strategy

               Since last week, German politicians at both the state and
               federal levels have once again had to figure out how they will
               handle themselves when making warnings about terrorist
               attacks. They have had to come up with a language that can
               simultaneously convey both an alert and a sense of calm.

               This is no easy task. For one thing, this isn't the first time
               this has happened. In September 2009, for example, right
               before federal elections were held, there were concrete
               threats that resulted in a heightened security situation. But,
               in the end, nothing happened. This time around, people are
               wondering whether they are on the precipice of an emergency or
               whether these are once again empty threats.

               Still, one thing is certain: For the time being, Germany has
               become a different country -- more nervous, more anxious, more
               agitated. And Germany's domestic security policies are being
               put to the test.

               When Interior Minister de Maiziere assumed his office in
               October 2009 in conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel's
               government, he aimed to cool down the heated sense of alarm
               regularly fanned out by his predecessors. What's more, the man
               who had served as Merkel's chief of staff in Chancellery until
               being moved to the role of interior minister in her new
               government, was given the task of nurturing a more relaxed
               relationship between her party, the Christian Democratic Union
               (CDU), and its new coalition partner, the business-friendly
               Free Democratic Party (FDP). In particular, it was his job to
               not draw out the long-standing conflict over domestic security
               policies with the Justice Ministry, which has been led since
               the 2009 election by Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, a
               member of the FDP. Indeed, Merkel feared that the quarrelsome
               FDP might try to capitalize on the issue to win over more
               voters, so she assigned de Maiziere to prevent that from
               happening.

               In fact, the plan was to repeat the same strategy that the CDU
               and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union
               (CSU), had used when they were in the so-called "grand
               coalition" with the center-left Social Democratic Party,
               between 2005 and 2009. At the time, they made a point of
               undermining the SPD by championing what had traditionally been
               the latter party's issues.

               A Game-Changer

               But now the game plan has changed. This November will
               drastically alter de Maiziere's understanding of his role in
               office. If he tries to return things to their previous state
               of calm, he's going to have a very tough time. In fact, it's
               much more likely that he will be a completely different
               interior minister.

               For a while now, de Maiziere's softer stance has prompted
               opposition by politicians on the right involved with domestic
               security issues. But they are now calling louder than ever for
               a tougher course to be followed. Merkel is also adjusting to
               the new situation and is reportedly happy with the way de
               Maiziere handled himself last week. Likewise, no one seems to
               have voiced any criticism last Thursday evening during a
               meeting of the Coalition Committee, a regular gathering of the
               parties that are part of the government.

               The almost complete lack of protest has a lot to do with where
               the alarming information is coming from. In fact, information
               regarding the supposedly imminent attacks has come from two
               independent sources. Shortly before receiving the telephone
               call about the planned attacks, BKA officials had received a
               cable from their American counterparts at the FBI, America's
               federal police force, warning of possible attacks.

               Still, what truth is there in these "security-related" pieces
               of information coming from both domestic and foreign sources?
               And, given all the discrepancies in the warning messages, just
               how much do they deserve to be trusted? Indeed, even among
               security officials themselves, there is some doubt about how
               legitimate these statements are -- and about just how acute
               the danger threatening Germany really is.

               An Attack Modelled after Mumbai[plot details in this section]
               What the caller reported was undeniably alarming. According to
               him, al-Qaida and associated groups based in Pakistan were
               making joint preparations for an attack in Germany. One idea
               was to remotely detonate a bomb using a mobile phone. Another
               called for a small group of terrorists to storm the Reichstag
               with guns blazing, take hostages and end everything in one
               calamitous bloodbath. Indeed, BKA officials learned that the
               latter plan had been modeled on the storming of luxury hotels
               in Mumbai, the Indian capital, almost exactly two years ago,
               in a massacre that left 175 people dead.

               According to the caller, the plan called for the terrorists to
               procure the submachine guns, automatic rifles, explosives and
               whatever else they would need to storm Germany's parliament
               building in the Balkans. He said that two men had already
               traveled to Germany six to eight weeks earlier, adding that
               one had the nom de guerre of "Abu Mohammed" and that the other
               one was a German of Turkish origin. Both apparently had roots
               in the Greater Berlin metropolitan area, were currently
               unemployed and living off of welfare payments and had immersed
               themselves in the anonymity provided by a major city -- until
               the time should come for their activation.

               Likewise, there were allegedly four other volunteers --
               including a German, a Turk, a North African and another
               jihadist of unknown identity -- in the training camps run by
               al-Qaida and related groups waiting for the signal to travel
               to Germany. And, according to the telephone source, al-Qaida's
               plan was to attack in February or March.
               The only question now relates to just how credible the
               caller's statements are. He is an insider who joined up with
               armed groups several months ago and has earned a reputation as
               a fanatic fighter.
               But could it be that he is only trying to tell German
               officials the juiciest things possible in order to raise his
               own market value and thereby prompt them to extract him from
               the terror scene? Or could it be that al-Qaida is even
               planning a second spectacular coup like the one in December
               2009, when the Americans allowed a supposedly top-level
               turncoat onto an American military base without any sort of
               pat-down, who went on to detonate his explosive vest and blow
               seven CIA officials to bits?

               A Strange Message

               A clear picture has yet to emerge. And one reason for this is
               also the fact that it was only two weeks ago that the FBI
               first decided to share information about another possible
               attack with German officials.

               In this case, even the way contact was made was unusual. Under
               normal circumstances, liaisons from the CIA station in Germany
               are the ones to communicate American warnings to their German
               counterparts. But, this time around, it was an apparently
               particularly anxious FBI that chose to directly notify the
               BKA.
               The FBI told the Germans about an obscure Indian group called
               "Saif," or "sword." Despite being a Shiite group, it had
               allegedly made a pact with al-Qaida, a Sunni organization, and
               sent five of its men to the Pakistani province of Waziristan
               for training. According to the FBI, two volunteers -- who were
               already equipped with visas allowing them to travel freely
               within the 25 European countries belonging to the Schengen
               zone -- were supposedly already en route to Germany and would
               enter the United Arab Emirates on Monday, Nov. 22. There, they
               would allegedly be provided with new travel documents before
               traveling on to Germany. One of the men is supposedly named
               "Khan," which is about as common in that part of the world as
               "Smith" is in English-speaking countries. And no firm
               conclusion had been made about their nationalities.

               The FBI agents even named the presumed masterminds behind the
               operation. A certain Mushtaq Altaf Bin-Khadri, who is in
               charge of finances and training for "Saif," allegedly
               dispatched the terrorist squad. But the FBI was not in a
               position to comment on the targets of the two men in Germany.

               One name came up time and again in the communique, and one
               that pricked the Germans' ears: Dawood Ibrahim. The
               54-year-old arms trader is "India's most-wanted man." The US
               government has listed him as a "global terrorist" and
               persuaded the United Nations to place his name on a list of
               supporters of terror. Ibrahim is rumored to be the head of
               D-Company, a criminal syndicate named after himself, and is
               believed to be in charge of smuggling the suspected terrorists
               into Germany.

               Both the FBI and the BKA are attaching a lot of importance to
               the information in the FBI communique. But the intelligence
               services of the two countries -- the CIA in the United States
               and the BND and Office for the Protection of the Constitution
               in Germany, the country's foreign and domestic intelligence
               agencies, respectively -- point to internal contradictions as
               reasons for their skepticism. As they see it, for example, it
               is highly unlikely that a Shiite group would team up with
               Sunni terrorists, especially since a good part of al-Qaida
               propaganda vilifies Shiites. Other reasons for doubt include
               the facts that none of the intelligence agencies was
               previously familiar with an organization called "Saif," that
               there have been no previously recorded threats against Germany
               by Indian extremists, and that the whole scenario seems rather
               implausible.

               On the other hand, the FBI information is uncommonly concrete.
               In addition to the names of the suspects, it also provides
               information about the exact day on which they are supposed to
               arrive in the United Arab Emirates. Moreover, Ibrahim is
               believed to be one of the men behind the terror attacks in
               Mumbai. If he really is involved, that alone would be reason
               enough for worry.

               Abnormal Circumstances

               Under normal circumstances, a message of this kind from the
               United States would no doubt be cause for serious-minded
               scrutiny, but it would not be a cause for alarm. For example,
               the BKA would go through all recent visa applications, and
               federal police officers would take a closer look at all the
               people entering Germany from Arab states. And the intelligence
               services would make the rounds to see if any of its partners
               had any helpful information on the matter.

               Indeed, under normal circumstances, there are always a lot of
               these communiques, most of which turn out to be false alarms.
               But these are no normal circumstances. Germany is in a state
               of emergency. Other countries, such as the United States,
               employ a system of official warning levels based on color
               codes that change -- from yellow to orange, for example --
               when the danger level is thought to increase. But, in Germany,
               the interior minister is the barometer: He consults with
               experts -- and then it is he who must call the shots.

               For the minister, a situation like this presents a dilemma. If
               he remains silent and something happens, he's a failure. If he
               makes loud warning and nothing happens, he's just a
               rabble-rouser trying to push through controversial tougher
               security laws. And, of course, the public never thanks you if
               everyday life continues in a normal, peaceful way.

               Absolute Security Remains a Pipe Dream

               When de Maiziere became Germany's interior minister, he had
               planned to lead the ministry in a level-headed way. For
               example, he prefers to use phrases such as "internal calm"
               rather than "internal security." And it was only six weeks ago
               that he uttered the sentence: "There's no cause for alarm."
               But, since then, the chorus of warning voices has only
               ballooned in size.

               This change in course is the combined result of everything
               that happened beforehand. It might very well turn out that the
               alleged Indian terror squad stays home and that the raid on
               the Reichstag never happens. But what will remain is a
               well-founded supposition that there is a critical mass of
               terrorists in the border region between Afghanistan and
               Pakistan that is thinking about launching attacks in Europe --
               and certainly in Germany, as well.

               Raw Nerves

               Given such circumstances, there is a major sense of alarm
               among German officials. Last Thursday, just a day after de
               Maiziere's shocking press conference, the BKA issued a press
               release "in connection with the current high-risk situation."
               It reported that a piece of suspicious luggage had been
               discovered a day earlier in Windhoek, the capital of Namibia,
               before being loaded onto a plane bound for Germany. The laptop
               bag contained batteries, wires, a detonator and a clock -- in
               other words, all the ingredients you need for a potential
               airborne catastrophe.

               It sounded as if another terror plot had been foiled. Had
               there been a plan to blow up Air Berlin Flight 7377 en route
               to Munich? And had the authorities, yet again, discovered an
               explosive device at the last minute? In the end, all the worry
               was unfounded. As it turned out, the piece of luggage was a
               test device built by a company that designs "real test"
               suitcases to be used to test security measures. It remains
               unclear who checked the bag in. But the fact that the BKA was
               so quick to go into alarm mode -- and publicly so -- has been
               a communications debacle.

               Of course, these days, nobody wants to be the one that wasn't
               sufficiently circumspect, the one who took too long to speak
               up. No one wants a replay of situations like the one from the
               beginning of November, when de Maiziere didn't know for hours
               whether the package that had arrived at the Chancellery
               contained actual explosives or was just a false alarm. Now,
               the threshold for sounding the alarm is already much lower.

               Bonded by Fear

               Of course, you can never be too sure. Over the last 12 months,
               a series of attacks concocted in the Afghan-Pakistani border
               region have been foiled in the West. For example, in May, a
               car bomb set in New York's Times Square by a man with ties to
               the Pakistani Taliban failed to properly detonate. In
               Copenhagen, al-Qaida had made plans to storm the offices of
               the Jyllands-Posten newspaper as revenge for its 2005
               publishing of caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad. In October
               2009, David Headley, an American citizen with Pakistani roots,
               was arrested after having already visited the newspaper's
               offices in order to scout them out before the planned attack.
               Other targets reportedly included the subway systems of New
               York City and Washington.

               On the other hand, absolute security is a pipe dream. For
               example, British authorities had even conducted rehearsals for
               how to respond to possible attacks. But, even so, when attacks
               claiming 56 lives (including those of four attackers) did
               strike London, on July 7, 2005, they were unable to prevent
               them. Likewise, US intelligence services had warned India a
               number of times that terrorists were planning attacks in
               Mumbai.

               The new situation in Germany has at least had one positive
               side effect: For the time being, the traditionally quarrelsome
               interior ministers from both the state and the federal levels
               have refrained from their usual bickering. Following informal
               talks held last Thursday in Hamburg, Minister Bruch of
               Rhineland-Palatinate noted that he had "never experienced such
               harmony within this group" that has apparently been bonded
               together by their shared fear.

               Translated from the German by Josh Ward

             --

             Sean Noonan

             Tactical Analyst

             Office: +1 512-279-9479

             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

             www.stratfor.com

           --

           - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

           Marko Papic

           Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

           STRATFOR

           700 Lavaca Street - 900

           Austin, Texas

           78701 USA

           P: + 1-512-744-4094

           marko.papic@stratfor.com

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

       --

       - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

       Marko Papic

       Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

       STRATFOR

       700 Lavaca Street - 900

       Austin, Texas

       78701 USA

       P: + 1-512-744-4094

       marko.papic@stratfor.com

     --

     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

     Marko Papic

     Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

     STRATFOR

     700 Lavaca Street - 900

     Austin, Texas

     78701 USA

     P: + 1-512-744-4094

     marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-22 18:04:12</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1652808_re-discussion-germany-ct-the-story-behind-germany-s-terror.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1653589</id>
    <title>Re: Info - Wiki Founder
</title>
    <description>   I think that timeline misses new charges against him on Sept. 1???

   also, here is the full Time interview and audio if that hasn't been sent
   out yet:

   http://www.time.com/time/world/article= /0,8599,2034040,00.html
   On 12/1/10 2:21 PM, Melissa Taylor wrote:

     Timeline of charges:
     &lt;a moz-do-not-send=3D"true" class=3D"moz-txt-link-freetext"
     href=3D"http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2010/12/01/131722777/timeline-t=
     he-international-arrest-warrant-for-wikileaks-julian-assange?ft=3D1&amp;f=
     =3D1004"&gt;http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2010/12/01/131722777/timeline-=
     the-international-arrest-warrant-for-wikileaks-julian-assange?ft=3D1&amp;f=
     =3D1004

     Bayless Parsley wrote:

       read this:

       http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/24/world/24assange.html?_=
       r=3D1&amp;pagewanted=3Dprint

       On 12/1/10 2:15 PM, Lena Bell wrote:

         this is a good feature piece The Age newspaper did back in May... a
         lot of people were talking about it then because so little is known
         about the man. Some of the more personal, historical background is
         pasted below after URL. My personal opinion? I think he is very
         intelligent but disenchanted and as journo writes:

         In another life, Assange might have been a mathematician. He spent
         four years studying maths, mostly at Melbourne University - with
         stints at the Australian National University in Canberra - but never
         graduated, disenchanted, he says, with how many of his fellow
         students were conducting research for the US defence system. 'There
         are key cases which are just really f---ing obnoxious,'' he says.

         Assange isn't paid a salary by WikiLeaks. He has investments, which
         he won't discuss. But during the 1990s he worked in computer
         security in Australia and overseas, devised software programmes - in
         1997 he co-invented ''Rubberhose deniable encryption'', which he
         describes as a cryptographic system made for human rights workers
         wanting to protect sensitive data in the field - and also became a
         key figure in the free software movement.

         http://www.theage.=
         com.au/technology/technology-news/the-secret-life-of-wikileaks-founder-juli=
         an-assange-20100521-w1um.html

         The former teenage hacker from Melbourne, whose mystique as an
         internet subversive, a resourceful loner with no fixed address,
         travelling constantly between countries with laptop and backpack,
         constitutes what you might call Assange's romantic appeal.

         But then there's the flip side: a man who believes in extreme
         transparency, but evades and obfuscates when it comes to talking
         about himself in the rare interviews that he gives. In the past, at
         least, these have hardly ever been face to face.

         The secretiveness extends to those close to him. One woman who
         speaks to me on the condition of total anonymity lived in the same
         share house in Melbourne as Assange for a few months in early 2007,
         when WikiLeaks was in its incubation period. The house was the hub,
         and it was inhabited by computer geeks.

         There were beds everywhere, she says. There was even a bed in the
         kitchen. This woman slept on a mattress in Assange's room, and says
         she would sometimes wake up in the middle of the night to find him
         still glued to his computer. He frequently forget to eat or sleep,
         wrote mathematical formulas all over the walls and the doors, and
         used only red light bulbs in his room - on the basis that early man,
         if waking suddenly, would see only the gentle light of the campfire,
         and fall asleep again. He also went through a period of frustration
         that the human body has to be fed several times a day and
         experimented with eating just one meal every two days, in order to
         be more efficient. ''He was always extremely focused,'' she says.

         Assange first visited Sweden in the 1990s - and WikiLeaks is hosted
         on a main server in Sweden, where the identities of confidential
         sources are protected by law.

         This doesn't prove anything, of course - and WikiLeaks only moved
         its main server to Sweden two years ago, after the Julius Baer Bank
         tried to close down the website. Even so, I email Eva Gabrielsson,
         Larsson's widow, to ask if the two of them ever met Assange -
         explaining that he helped research a remarkable 1997 book,
         /Underground/, about the exploits of an extraordinary group of young
         Melbourne hackers, written by the Melbourne academic Suelette
         Dreyfus. The hackers all had monikers in the book: Assange is said
         to be the character Mendax. Assange convinced Dreyfus to release the
         book online, and according to one source I spoke to, there was great
         interest in the book in Sweden - and in China.

         ''About Julian Assange - well, why don't you ask him?'' Gabrielsson
         emails back.

         It isn't the most urgent question I have for Assange, who I meet in
         early May, the day after he slips back into Melbourne, his home
         town. He arrived on a flight from Europe, via the US. Or so I
         understand from the person acting as our inbetween.

         The same contact provides a Melbourne address, and instructions.
         ''Don't call a cab, find one on the street; turn off your mobile
         phone before you catch the cab and preferably, remove the
         batteries.''

         And here he is - a tall, thin, pale figure with that remarkable
         white hair, looking very tired, and wearing creased, student-style
         dark clothes and boots, and backpack.

         As we shake hands, he inclines his head slightly in a courtly, old
         world manner, at odds with his youthful, student-traveller looks.
         When I remark that there's a lot to ask him, he replies, ''That's
         all right - I'm not going to answer half of it.''

         Is Assange his real name? Yes, he replies, then says it's the name
         in his passport. ''What's in a name?'' he then adds mysteriously,
         casting doubt on his first answer.

         At the time of writing, his passport status was apparently back to
         normal after immigration officials at Melbourne Airport said that
         his passport was going to be cancelled on the grounds that it was
         too tatty.

         It has been in a couple of rivers, Assange allows of the state of
         his passport. The first time, as he recalls, in December 2006, when
         he was crossing a swollen river during heavy rain in southern
         Tasmania, and was swept out to sea. He swam back in. ''My conclusion
         from that experience is that the universe doesn't give a damn about
         you, so it's a good thing you do.''

         Why did he have his passport with him? He had everything he needed
         for three weeks of survival, he replies. He needed his passport for
         ID when he flew to Tasmania.

         Doesn't he have a driver's licence? ''No comment.''

         How true is the image of him as the enigmatic founder of WikiLeaks,
         constantly on the move, with no real place to call home? Is this
         really how he lives his life?

         ''Do I live my life as an enigmatic man?''

         No - is it true you're constantly on the move?

         ''Pretty much true.''

         Does he have one base he'd call home?

         ''I have four bases where I would go if I was sick, which is how I
         think about where home is.''

         He has spent the best part of the past six months in Iceland, he
         says. And the next six months? ''It depends on which area of the
         world I'm needed most. We're an international organisation. We deal
         with international problems,'' he replies.

         Assange mentions four bases, but names only two. The one in Iceland
         and another in Kenya, where he has spent a lot of time, on and off,
         in the past couple of years.

         The Kroll report, released on WikiLeaks, reportedly swung the Kenyan
         presidential election in 2007.

         When he's in the country, Assange lives in a compound in Nairobi
         with other foreigners, mainly members of NGOs such as Medecins Sans
         Frontieres. He originally went to Kenya in 2007 to give a lecture on
         WikiLeaks, when it was up and running. ''And ended up staying
         there,'' I suggest encouragingly.

         ''Mmmm.''

         As a result of liking the place or =E2=80=A6

         ''Well, it has got extraordinary opportunities for reforms. It had a
         revolution in the 1970s. It has only been a democracy since 2004
         =E2=80=A6 I was introduced to senior people in journalism, in human
         rights very quickly.''

         He has travelled to Siberia. Is there a third base there?

         ''No comment. I wish. The bear steak is good.''

         Why did he go to Georgia?

         ''How do you know about that?''

         I read it somewhere, I reply. It was a rumour. ''Ah, a rumour,'' he
         says.

         But he did go there? ''It's better that I don't comment on that,
         because Georgia is not such a big place.''

         Living permanently in a state of exile, which can become addictive,
         means that you always have the sharp eye of the outsider, I suggest.

         ''The sense of perspective that interaction with multiple cultures
         gives you I find to be extremely valuable, because it allows you to
         see the structure of a country with greater clarity, and gives you a
         sense of mental independence,'' Assange replies.

         "You're not swept up in the trivialities of a nation. You can
         concentrate on the serious matters. Australia is a bit of a
         political wasteland. That's OK, as long as people recognise that. As
         long as people recognise that Australia is a suburb of a country
         called Anglo-Saxon.''

         Could he ever live in one place again? A brief silence. ''I don't
         think so,'' he says finally.

         ''I don't see myself as a computer guru,'' he remarks at one point.
         ''I live a broad intellectual life. I'm good at a lot of things,
         except for spelling.''

         At one point, thinking about some of the material leaked on
         WikiLeaks, I ask Assange how he defines national security. ''We
         don't,'' he says crisply. "We're not interested in that. We're
         interested in justice. We are a supranational organisation. So we're
         not interested in national security.''

         How does he justify keeping his own life as private as possible,
         considering that he believes in extreme transparency?

         ''I don't justify it,'' he says, with just a hint of
         mischievousness. ''No one has sent us any official documents that
         were not published previously on me. Should they do so, and they
         meet our editorial criteria, we will publish them.''

         Assange isn't paid a salary by WikiLeaks. He has investments, which
         he won't discuss. But during the 1990s he worked in computer
         security in Australia and overseas, devised software programmes - in
         1997 he co-invented ''Rubberhose deniable encryption'', which he
         describes as a cryptographic system made for human rights workers
         wanting to protect sensitive data in the field - and also became a
         key figure in the free software movement.

         The whole point of free software, he comments, is to ''liberate it
         in all senses''. He adds: ''It' s part of the intellectual heritage
         of man. True intellectual heritage can't be bound up in intellectual
         property.''

         Did being arrested, and later on finding himself in a courtroom,
         push him into a completely different reality that he had never
         thought about - and eventually in a direction that eventually saw
         him start thinking along the lines of a website like WikiLeaks, that
         would take on the world?

         ''That [experience] showed me how the justice system and bureaucracy
         worked, and did not work; what its abilities were and what its
         limitations were,'' he replies. ''And justice wasn't something that
         came out of the justice system. Justice was something that you bring
         to the justice system. And if you're lucky, or skilled, and you're
         in a country that isn't too corrupt, you can do that.''

         In another life, Assange might have been a mathematician. He spent
         four years studying maths, mostly at Melbourne University - with
         stints at the Australian National University in Canberra - but never
         graduated, disenchanted, he says, with how many of his fellow
         students were conducting research for the US defence system.

         ''There are key cases which are just really f---ing obnoxious,'' he
         says.

         According to Assange, the US Defence Advance Research Project Agency
         was funding research which involved optimising the efficiency of a
         military bulldozer called the Grizzly Plough, which was used in the
         Iraqi desert during Operation Desert Storm during the 1991 Gulf War.

         ''It has a problem in that it gets damaged [from] the sand rolling
         up in front. The application of this bulldozer is to move at 60
         kilometres an hour, sweeping barbed wire and so on before it, and
         get the sand and put it in the trenches where the [Iraqi] troops
         are, and bury them all alive and then roll over the top. So that's
         what Melbourne University's applied maths department was doing -
         studying how to improve the efficiency of the Grizzly Plough.''

         Assange says he did a lot of soul-searching before he finally quit
         his studies in 2007. He had already started working with other
         people on a model of WikiLeaks by early 2006.

         There were people at the physics conference, he goes on, who were
         career physicists, ''and there was just something about their
         attire, and the way they moved their bodies, and of course the bags
         on their backs didn't help much either. I couldn't respect them as
         men''.

         His university experience didn't define his cynicism, though.
         Assange says that he's extremely cynical anyway. ''I painted every
         corner, floor, wall and ceiling in the 'room' I was in, black, until
         there was only one corner left. I mean intellectually,'' he adds.
         ''To me, it was the forced move [in chess], when you have to do
         something or you'll lose the game.''

         So WikiLeaks was his forced move?

         ''That's the way it feels to me, yes. There were no other options
         left to me on the table.''

         WikiLeaks, he says, has released more classified documents than the
         rest of the world press combined.

         ''That's not something I say as a way of saying how successful we
         are - rather, that shows you the parlous state of the rest of the
         media. How is it that a team of five people has managed to release
         to the public more suppressed information, at that level, than the
         rest of the world press combined? It's disgraceful.''

         Where does Assange see WikiLeaks in 10 years? "It's not what I want
         the world to be. It's what I want the rest of the world to be," he
         replies.

         He would like to see all media develop their own forms of WikiLeaks.
         That would put his own website out of business, I point out.

         ''We have a proposal to [an American foundation] for a grant to just
         that,'' he replies, explaining that WikiLeaks could create systems
         for all media organisations.

         A thought: has he ever met Rupert Murdoch? ''No.''

         Fred Burton wrote:

           Lena - What is this dude's Aussie background?=C2=A0 He seems like
           a lunatic
           or a left-winger?=C2=A0 Angry Aussie w/an axe to grind.=C2=A0 B=
           elongs in Swedish
           politics.
           FBI is in bed w/the Aussies.=C2=A0 I'm sure we are listening in to
           every call
           the jamoke is making.
           Lena Bell wrote:
           =C2=A0

             Not sure that's happening re Oz; federal police have opened up
             an
             investigation to see whether or not any Australian criminal laws
             were
             broken. - where did Nick get the insight about an agreed
             extradition -
             there is nothing about this on OS and of course it would mean
             Assange
             would have to come home first. Something he is very unlikely to
             do.
             GovGen hasn't ruled out canceling his passport incidentally.
             His mother has recently been interviewed by the ABC and she is
             scared
             that he will be "hunted down and jailed"...=C2=A0 will make it
             difficult to
             pursue the scenario painted below. Australians are likely to
             back him.
             You wouldn't believe how much press/public sentiment david hicks
             created in Guantanamo Bay. It really forced the Howard govt to
             change
             tactics... esp when polling results overall were so poor.**

             Bayless Parsley wrote:
             =C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0

               The main thing I was trying to ask about earlier was in
               regards to
               the logistics of actually detaining the guy.

               I got the sense that Fred was saying US agents could
               physically do it
               in another country. Perhaps I just misunderstood what he was
               trying
               to say, because I find that really hard to believe (as
               rendition is
               not an option in this case, which is why I brought up the fact
               that
               some Republican congressmen are trying to call Assange a
               "terrorist"
               now).

               Basic fact is that any move to arrest the guy (assuming they
               get an
               indictment for him) would require that a friendly government
               do it
               and then extradite him. Nick Miller told me the Australians
               have
               already offered to do this, as Assange is an Australian
               citizen, and
               Australia is the Canada of the southern hemisphere when it
               comes to
               its relations with the US.

               Also, Karen had a very good point about the sex charges.
               Weren't
               those dropped months ago after the initial allegations? What
               do ya
               know, after the US explictly warned him time and again to stop
               publishing the cables, it pops back up all of a sudden...

               On 12/1/10 12:36 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:
               =C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0

                 can you charge them with anything if they paid for the
                 information?

                 On Dec 1, 2010, at 12:35 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                 =C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0

                   You mean by helping Manning get the information off the
                   networks? Training, computer codes, flash drives,
                   etc??=C2=A0 That's a good point. On 12/1/10 12:31 PM,
                   George Friedman wrote:
                   =C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0

                     He might have facilitated or suborned the access. For
                     example,
                     provided the means for distirbuting it.

                     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

                     -----------------------------------------------------=
                     -------------------

                     *From: *Sean Noonan &lt;sean.n= oonan@stratfor.com&gt;
                     *Date: *Wed, 1 Dec 2010 12:19:09 -0600 (CST)
                     *To: *Analyst List&lt;analysts@= stratfor.com&gt;
                     *ReplyTo: *Analyst List &lt;analysts@= stratfor.com&gt;
                     *Subject: *Re: Info - Wiki Founder

                     I think it's very difficult to indict him on anything
                     though. MAYBE espionage, but even those laws are still
                     too old.=C2= =A0 I think
                     your FBI contact is right (sadly).=C2=A0 the US can
                     really only get the
                     person who did the leak, not who published it--George
                     also pointed
                     this out over the weekend. What would the sealed
                     indictment be for?

                     (this is also why they will get him on some other
                     charges in
                     another country....)

                     On 12/1/10 12:15 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
                     =C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=
                     =A0=C2=A0=C2=A0

                       Sealed indictment.=C2=A0 Ha= nd the warrant over to
                       the USMS to execute.
                       Happens everyday.=C2=A0 The USMS works w/their
                       counterparts and lock
                       the dude
                       up.
                       Bayless Parsley wrote:
                       =C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0 =
                       =C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=
                       =A0

                         How would it work if the US wanted to catch such a
                         high profile
                         target
                         like this? Despite what one Republican senator may
                         have said the
                         other
                         day (can't remember who, or if it was even a
                         senator), he's not a
                         "terrorist," and so rendition..... wouldn't really
                         be an option.

                         But legally, you'd have to have the host
                         government's
                         cooperation. Is
                         there any way aside from that scenario that could
                         lead to his
                         arrest
                         on charges of breaking US laws?

                         On 12/1/10 12:12 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
                         =C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=
                         =C2=A0=C2=A0
                         =C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=
                         =C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0

                           &gt;From a very good contact @ the FBI --

                           How come you guys haven't picked this left-wing
                           lunatic
                           WikiLeaks founder up on
                           some sort of trumped up charge?=C2=A0
                           ---------------------------------------------------------------------------=

                           1st Amendment overprotects journalists.
                           =C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=
                           =A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0
                           =C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=
                           =A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0

                     --=C2=A0
                     Sean Noonan
                     Tactical Analyst
                     Office: +1 512-279-9479
                     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
                     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
                     www.stratfor.com&lt;/= a&gt;
                     =C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=
                     =A0=C2=A0=C2=A0

                   --=C2=A0
                   Sean Noonan
                   Tactical Analyst
                   Office: +1 512-279-9479
                   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
                   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
                   www.stratfor.com
                   =C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0 =

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-01 21:26:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1653589_re-info-wiki-founder-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1653963</id>
    <title>Re: BUDGET- Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks Survival
</title>
    <description>   Yes, let's make this happen fast please since it's the buzz this morning.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, December 7, 2010 6:06:55 AM
   Subject: BUDGET- Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks Survival

   Discussing the impact of Assange's arrest.

   600 words
   Will be out within a few minutes of our Tactical meeting.  Depends how
   long that runs. 
   Hopefully before the 9am Annual. 
   On 12/7/10 7:54 AM, scott stewart wrote:

     Leta**s do it.

      

     From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Sean Noonan
     Sent: Tuesday, December 07, 2010 8:49 AM
     To: Analyst List
     Subject: PROPOSAL- Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks Survival

      

     Title: Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks Survival

     Type: 3- When I woke up at 5, there was no one saying anything on this. 
     I haven't checked but I'm guessing we are still way ahead of in
     providing analysis of what Assange's arrest will do to him/the
     organization

     Thesis: Assange was arrested in Britain December 7.  WikiLeaks is a new
     organization with one leader that has not institutionalized.  Assange's
     arest will test its ability to maintain itself as an institution--but
     that won't stop the current set of documents. 

     600 words

     Current Discussion:

      

     London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and
     public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7.  He is due to
     appear in a court in Westminster soon to face charges of rape, accused
     by two woman in Sweden.  Charges of sexual assault rarely are passed
     through Interpol red notices, like this case, so this is no doubt about
     trying to disrupt WikiLeaks release of government documents.  While it's
     possible that Assange's arrest could disrupt the long-term viability of
     WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release of cables in the short-term and
     governments will now be concerned about what the organization may
     release in revenge.

      

     Leadership is extremely important in non-governmental organizations that
     have not institutionalized.  From terrorist grous  to charities [LINK:
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090923_death_top_indonesian_militant],
     these organizations often ebb and flow along with their founders. 
     WikiLeaks is a new organization that has a created a novel method for an
     old practice- leaking confidential government information in an attempt
     to influence politics.  Leaking will not go away with Assange's arrest,
     but WikiLeaks might.

      

     WikiLeaks created itself with Assange as the only public face-- he leads
     supports, drives donations, and faces criticism.  This has made many in
     the organization unhappy, and some have left it after disagreeing with
     him.  If Assange were to face charges in Sweden for sexual assault or
     new charges in the UK or US and was found guilty, WikiLeaks would still
     need someone to operate it.  Assange may have someone waiting in the
     wings, but that is not evident.

      

     WikiLeaks has also suffered logistically and as a brand.  As national
     governments put pressure on its infrastructure, its websites have been
     shut and most importantly its main source of funding- PayPal- has closed
     WikiLeaks account.  With such pressure and government monitoring, future
     leakers may be too afraid of getting intercepted and go elsewhere. 
     Moreover, this new set of documents have not worked out like Assange
     expected- the public is not angry at the State Department, but many are
     angry at Assange and his organization.

      

     Assange's arrest won't stop the continued leaks of this large batch of
     US State Department cables.  It also won't shut down WikiLeaks, which
     still maintains its website and the ability to collect information from
     leakers.  So in the short-term, WikiLeaks will maintain.  The question
     remains if it has created a truly sustainable institutions-- one where
     leaders are replacable, members can adapt to changing circumstance, and
     representatives can aid and inspire new leakers.

      

     If Asange is extradited to Sweden and tried of one count of unlawful
     coercion, two counts of sexual molestation and one count of rape, will
     he be able to maintain WikiLeaks image?  That is hard to say, but
     growing public criticism of him indicates his inability to grow
     WikiLeaks support base.  Western govrenments also fear whatever is
     contained in his ___ file, for which he threatens to release an
     encryption key if something happens to him.  WikiLeaks has already
     released its most damaging documents-- its attempt to get public
     attention-- and they haven't amounted to much.  This new file likely
     contains no more damaging information, but instead is full of names. 
     The names of sources who will be at risk and those of diplomats,
     military or intelligence officers who could lose their jobs.

      

     WikiLeaks is now facing a conundrum that all new organizations do--the
     ability to maintain and transition leadership through adverse
     circumstances.  Maybe Assange will be released quickly-- STRATFOR cannot
     speak to the veracity of the charges against him-- but if he isn't,
     WikiLeaks will struggle to survive.

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com

   --
   Jenna Colley
   STRATFOR
   Director, Content Publishing
   C: 512-567-1020
   F: 512-744-4334
   jenna.colley@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 15:08:38</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1653963_re-budget-assange-arrest-and-wikileaks-survival-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>jenna.colley@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>operations@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>opcenter@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1654237</id>
    <title>US/CT- Wikileaks Cyber Battle: Anatomy of a Hack Attack
</title>
    <description>   Wikileaks Cyber Battle: Anatomy of a Hack Attack
   How Hackers Used 'Low Orbit Ion Cannon' to Take Down Mastercard, Visa,
   Paypal
   http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wikileaks-anonymous-cyber-attacks/story?id=12355960&amp;tqkw=&amp;tqshow=GMA
   By DEVIN DWYER
   Dec. 10, 2010

   "Connect your LOICs to the Hive. Attack will start soon."

   With that simple call to action, and dozens like it sent out on Twitter,
   Facebook and message boards, a scrappy, decentralized coalition of
   computer users is waging an international "cyberwar" against U.S.
   companies that have severed ties to the controversial website WikiLeaks.

   Over the past few days, the group, known as "Anonymous," has successfully
   knocked corporate websites for MasterCard, Visa and Paypal offline. There
   are also signs that it was behind attacks on Swedish government websites
   and those tied to Sarah Palin and Sen. Joe Lieberman.

   But what's most surprising about "Operation Payback," cyber security
   experts say, is the simplicity of its approach to wreaking havoc on the
   web.

   The massive hack attack appears to have been orchestrated by a handful of
   organizers with control over a virtual army of tens of thousands of
   computers. The networks -- known as botnets -- can inundate their targets
   with denial of service attacks, overwhelming a site's server so that
   regular customers can't get through.

   Security experts reached by ABC News estimated that several thousand
   computer users have voluntarily dedicated their machines to the campaign,
   downloading attack software, installing it on their computers and
   connecting to a central server, called a HiveMind.

   Anonymous has posted online step-by-step instructions for download,
   telling participants that after installing the software they simply "sit
   back and enjoy!"

   Then, masterminds of the HiveMind input the IP address of their desired
   target, and all the affiliated computers running the special software
   begin bombarding the site.

   "Remember: current target is api.paypal.com, port 443. We are currently
   FIRING!" one of the HiveMind organizers posted under the Twitter handle
   AnonOpsNet late Thursday.

   The software, a simple Windows application called Low Orbit Ion Cannon, or
   LOIC, was developed decades ago to test the ability of a website to handle
   traffic. Because it's open source, meaning its code is publicly available,
   it is also easily shared and manipulated.

   "This program just goes and grabs data on the target website at a high
   rate, in effect having no pause in your viewing of a webpage," said
   Barrett Lyon, an Internet security expert who created the first denial of
   service defense company in 2004 and has analyzed the ongoing cyberwar.
   "It's basically just blasting the website using all the resources of the
   user."

   But the attacks don't appear to be meant to do more than create a show,
   Lyon said, noting the hackers don't seem to be seeking confidential
   company or consumer information, like credit card account numbers.

   In their manifesto posted online Thursday, Anonymous says it does not
   intend to attack the "critical infrastructure" of sites like Visa and
   MasterCard, but instead to disrupt their corporate websites. "Anonymous
   does not seek to disturb the public peace nor the average internet
   citizen; for average internet citizens are most of us who are Anonymous",
   the statement says.

  Only 1,000 Computers to Take Down Visa

   An Australian man who claims to be one of the organizers running the
   HiveMind told the Sydney Morning Herald it took only 800 computers to take
   down MasterCard, and 1,000 to take down Visa.

   But some security experts say the effort is almost certainly aided by
   collections of tens of thousands of other computers, involuntarily and
   unknowingly participating in the campaign at the direction of a master
   computer.

   "The truth is the actual attack is not coming from those few individuals,"
   said Peter Schlampp, a cyber security expert with Solera Networks.
   "They're commanding an extremely broad network of.... computers being
   controlled by whatever the puppetmaster wants them to do."

   These secret networks, or botnets, are common, and are often amassed
   through viruses and worms without a computer user even knowing it.

   "The infected computers can be told remotely to go do something: Send out
   spam, send out bad traffic. They can even be told to attack the Pentagon
   and steal data. They're robots," said Alan Paller, director of research at
   SANS Institution for Computer Security and Training.

   Paller said there are millions of computers available to would-be cyber
   attackers via botnets, making it difficult for law enforcement agencies to
   root out the threat completely. But, he added, officials can often track
   down individuals behind the botnet controls.

   Dutch National Police arrested a 16-year-old boy Wednesday in connection
   with the hack attacks, a spokesperson for the Dutch National Prosecutors
   Office told ABC News. The teen, he said, had confessed to involvement in
   the attacks on MasterCard and Visa's websites.

   But the botnets will live on.

   "Botnets wax and wane over time, but don't go away," said Schampp. "The
   only way to kill a botnet is for all the PCs to have updated antivirus and
   antimalware software or to shut down the computers."

   In the current battle, Paller said, resolution may more likely come
   through more cyberattacks -- from the other side.

   "What will happen is that there are enough angry people on the side that
   doesn't like what Wikileaks did that are going to be vigilantes too.
   That's already started, he said. "They're attacking back."

   ABC News' Zunaira Zaki contributed to this report.

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-10 14:03:46</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1654237_us-ct-wikileaks-cyber-battle-anatomy-of-a-hack-attack-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>os@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1656341</id>
    <title>Re: [OS] US/AFGHANISTAN/PAKISTAN/CT- Blackwater and the Khost
 Bombing: Is the CIA Deceiving Congress?
</title>
    <description>   confirms BW, though not sure what exactly they were doing (probably
   security, and if so they definitely failed that job).  Like or dislike
   Scahill's position (or what comes of his work), he does an amazing job
   outing them. 

   That brings room count to 17 people plus bomber.

   Sean Noonan
   Research Intern
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   www.stratfor.com

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "The OS List" &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, January 6, 2010 8:42:33 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: [OS] US/AFGHANISTAN/PAKISTAN/CT- Blackwater and the Khost
   Bombing: Is the CIA Deceiving Congress?

   Blackwater and the Khost Bombing: Is the CIA Deceiving Congress?
   By Jeremy Scahill
   January 6, 2010
   http://www.thenation.com/doc/20100111/scahill2

   A leading member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
   has told The Nation that she will launch an investigation into why two
   Blackwater contractors were among the dead in the December 30 suicide
   bombing at the CIA station at Forward Operating Base Chapman in Khost,
   Afghanistan. "The Intelligence Committees and the public were led to
   believe that the CIA was phasing out its contracts with Blackwater and now
   we find out that there is this ongoing presence," said Illinois Democrat
   Jan Schakowsky, chair of the Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations,
   in an interview. "Is the CIA once again deceiving us about the
   relationship with Blackwater?"

   n in Afghanistan means a surge in contractors, which means that thousands
   more Afghans will be hired to work at US bases, guard US installations and
   participate in US training programs.

   In December, the CIA announced that the agency had canceled its contract
   with Blackwater to work on the agency's drone bombing campaign in
   Afghanistan and Pakistan and said Director Leon Panetta ordered a review
   of all existing CIA contracts with Blackwater. "At this time, Blackwater
   is not involved in any CIA operations other than in a security or support
   role," CIA spokesman George Little said December 11.

   But Schakowsky said the fact that two Blackwater personnel were in such
   close proximity to the December 30 suicide bomber--an alleged double
   agent, who was reportedly meeting with CIA agents including the agency's
   second-ranking officer in Afghanistan when he blew himself up--shows how
   "deeply enmeshed" Blackwater remains in sensitive CIA operations,
   including those CIA officials claim it no longer participates in, such as
   intelligence gathering and briefings with valuable agency assets. The two
   Blackwater men were reportedly in the room for the expected briefing by
   the double agent, Humam Khalil Muhammed Abu Mulal al-Balawi, who claimed
   to have recently met with Al Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri.

   "It's just astonishing that given the track record of Blackwater, which is
   a repeat offender endangering our mission repeatedly, endangering the
   lives of our military and costing the lives of innocent civilians, that
   there would be any relationship," Schakowsky said. "That we would continue
   to contract with them or any of Blackwater's subsidiaries is completely
   unacceptable."

   Under the Obama administration, Blackwater continues to work for the
   Department of Defense, the State Department and, as evidenced by the
   December 30 bombing, the CIA in Afghanistan. The company even maintains
   its own forward operating bases in Afghanistan, including one along the
   Afghanistan-Pakistan border. "This is the closest base to the [Pakistani]
   border," Blackwater's owner Erik Prince recently bragged to Vanity Fair.
   "Who else has built a fob along the main infiltration route for the
   Taliban and the last known location for Osama bin Laden?"

   Blackwater has been working for the CIA since at least April 2002. Prince
   recently claimed he was personally a CIA asset, conducting clandestine
   black operations around the globe. In June, Leon Panetta reportedly told
   Congress he had canceled the CIA assassination program involving
   Blackwater.

   While the CIA said in December that Blackwater only continues its security
   and support role for the CIA, NBC News reported that the Blackwater men
   were not doing security at the time of the blast. The two Blackwater
   operatives killed in the bombing have been identified as Jeremy Wise, a
   35-year old ex-Navy SEAL, and 46-year-old Dane Clark Paresi.

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Research Intern
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-18 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1656341_re-os-us-afghanistan-pakistan-ct-blackwater-and-the-khost.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1657261</id>
    <title>Re: Assange is off the hook...
</title>
    <description>   No I meant the regular people are not mad about it. Assange wanted the
   common folk to rise up against the insidious and evil diplomats. That has
   not happened. In fact, most are defending our diplomats.

   People are mad, but at Assange... not at the U.S. government.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Matthew Gertken" &lt;matt.gertken@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: analysts@stratfor.com
   Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 10:40:08 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   Agree, the ego-trip and the anti-Americanism are extremely irritating. But
   not sure it is true about people in the US being mad about the cables --
   Gingrich called it terrorism, the Fox people are have been talking it up
   big time, including WSJ which has contained some more insightful but still
   rather alarmist responses to it. 

   As to the part about going after Russian info. The Chinese press has
   raised the issue of other countries being targeted next, and even went so
   far as to say that the entire scandal is a US conspiracy that will be used
   against other states. The interesting thing about this to me is the fear
   of exposure that has gone to all governments over the implications of this
   type of web dissemination for leaks. Closed govts like china see real
   danger here, as elsewhere with internet evolution. They are familiar with
   how new info dissemination patterns, however innocuous they seem when
   originated in the West, end up posing threats to their control (like
   twitter for instance)

   On 12/5/10 10:23 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

     What a douche.

     And I just want to be clear here... I have no problem with the leaks. I
     think they're great. And I think it may be good on some level to have
     stuff like this come out once in a while. What I can't stand is A) his
     ego trip and B) his clear anti-Americanism. Take the time to read the
     intro to Cablegate when you get the chance. This guy hates America more
     than OBL.

     What I love, however, is how nobody in the U.S. is mad about the cables.
     Hell, I have a better opinion of State Department diplomats now than I
     did before the cables. They actually said a few smart things here and
     there. I actually gave them a tip of my hat.

     I want to see him try to take on the Russians. He'd be going bald in an
     Iceland hospital within days.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 10:11:39 PM
     Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

     should we change our Stratfor motto now?
     Predictive, insightful intelligence...in a post-Cablegate world.
     On Dec 5, 2010, at 10:05 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

       This guy needs to take pills for his ego:

      He suggested, not for the first time, that he believes his document
      service has had a profound effect on world history: a**I believe
      geopolitics will be separated into pre- and post-Cablegate phases.a**

       Also, I have a question about this part (this is Assange's lawyer
       saying how Wikileaks would release full versions of all files --
       including names of spies, etc. -- if harmed):

      WikiLeaks, Mr. Stephens said, has a**been subject to cyberattacks and
      censorship around the world and they need to protect themselves ... This
      is what they believe to be a thermonuclear device in the information
      age.a**

       Let's say the following scenario happens. Assange is arrested and
       extradicted to Sweden to face rape charges. Wikileaks releases the
       password to the insurance files. Would he not then be directly
       endangering U.S. and other country intelligence professionals? Would
       it not then be possible to prosecute him for espionage? 

       -- 
       - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
       Marko Papic
       Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
       STRATFOR
       700 Lavaca Street - 900
       Austin, Texas
       78701 USA
       P: + 1-512-744-4094
       marko.papic@stratfor.com

     --
     Marko Papic

     STRATFOR Analyst
     C: + 1-512-905-3091
     marko.papic@stratfor.com

 --
 Matthew Gertken
 Asia Pacific Analyst
 Office 512.744.4085
 Mobile 512.547.0868
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-06 05:56:29</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 03:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1657261_re-assange-is-off-the-hook-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1657727</id>
    <title>Re: Assange is off the hook...
</title>
    <description>   Is it possible to revoke some one's citizenship on the grounds of them
   being a total dickhead? 
   I don't care about the other leaks but the ones he has made that
   potentially damage Australian interests upset me. 
   If I thought I could switch this dickhead off without getting done I don't
   think I'd have too much of a problem.
   BTW, close family friend in Sweden who knows the girl that is pressing
   charges tells me that there is absolutely nothing behind it other than
   prosecutors that are looking to make a name for themselves. My friend
   speaks rather disparagingly about the girl who is claiming molestation. I
   also think the whole rape thing is incorrect for if I remember correctly
   rape was never the charge. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 12:23:03 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   What a douche.

   And I just want to be clear here... I have no problem with the leaks. I
   think they're great. And I think it may be good on some level to have
   stuff like this come out once in a while. What I can't stand is A) his ego
   trip and B) his clear anti-Americanism. Take the time to read the intro to
   Cablegate when you get the chance. This guy hates America more than OBL.

   What I love, however, is how nobody in the U.S. is mad about the cables.
   Hell, I have a better opinion of State Department diplomats now than I did
   before the cables. They actually said a few smart things here and there. I
   actually gave them a tip of my hat.

   I want to see him try to take on the Russians. He'd be going bald in an
   Iceland hospital within days.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 10:11:39 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   should we change our Stratfor motto now?
   Predictive, insightful intelligence...in a post-Cablegate world.
   On Dec 5, 2010, at 10:05 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

     This guy needs to take pills for his ego:

      He suggested, not for the first time, that he believes his document
      service has had a profound effect on world history: a**I believe
      geopolitics will be separated into pre- and post-Cablegate phases.a**

     Also, I have a question about this part (this is Assange's lawyer saying
     how Wikileaks would release full versions of all files -- including
     names of spies, etc. -- if harmed):

      WikiLeaks, Mr. Stephens said, has a**been subject to cyberattacks and
      censorship around the world and they need to protect themselves ... This
      is what they believe to be a thermonuclear device in the information
      age.a**

     Let's say the following scenario happens. Assange is arrested and
     extradicted to Sweden to face rape charges. Wikileaks releases the
     password to the insurance files. Would he not then be directly
     endangering U.S. and other country intelligence professionals? Would it
     not then be possible to prosecute him for espionage? 

     -- 
     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
     Marko Papic
     Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
     STRATFOR
     700 Lavaca Street - 900
     Austin, Texas
     78701 USA
     P: + 1-512-744-4094
     marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-06 05:42:16</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1657727_re-assange-is-off-the-hook-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1657905</id>
    <title>FOR EDIT- Assange Arrest
</title>
    <description>   *thanks to all for the very helpful comments. 

   Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks Survival

   Display: the Douchiest picture of Assange possible.  

    

   Summary:

   WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange was arrested in Britain December 7,
   following an Interpol Red Notice based on a Swedish warrant.  WikiLeaks is
   a new organization with one leader that has not institutionalized.
    Assange's arrest will test its ability to maintain itself as an
   institution, but the concept of leaking documents on the internet will
   continue.  

    

   Analysis:

   London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and public
   spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7 when he turned himself in.
    He is due to appear in a court in Westminster soon to face a hearing over
   charges against him in Sweden, and possible extradition.  There is
   considerable interest in what this can mean for his organization.  While
   it's possible that Assange's arrest could disrupt the long-term viability
   of WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release of cables in the short-term and
   will not stop similar future leaks via the internet.

    

   Leadership can be extremely important in non-governmental organizations
   that have not institutionalized.  From &lt;terrorist groups&gt; [LINK:
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090923_death_top_indonesian_militant] to
   charities, new organizations often ebb and flow along with their founders.
    WikiLeaks organized a new method for an old practice- leaking
   confidential government information in an attempt to influence politics.

    

   Assange created WikiLeaks with himself as the only public face-- he leads
   supporters, drives donations, gives interviews and faces criticism. There
   have been reports of internal dissent and tensions, and in one interview
   with CNN, discussion of the organizations internal politics seemed to
   touch a nerve with Assange.  If Assange were to face charges in Sweden for
   sexual assault or new charges in the UK or US and was found guilty,
   WikiLeaks would still need someone to operate it.  Assange may have
   someone waiting in the wings, but that is not evident.

    

   WikiLeaks has also suffered logistically.  As national governments put
   pressure on its infrastructure, its websites have been shut down and most
   importantly a major source of funding, PayPal, has closed WikiLeaks'
   account (Mastercard has also banned payments from its card to WikiLeaks).
   It is also not clear whether the events of the last few months will
   encourage or deter other potential leakers from approaching Wikileaks as
   opposed to other organizations (especially if they dislike or disagree
   with Assange.  Moreover, this new set of documents have not worked out
   like Assange expected- the U.S. public is not angry at the State
   Department, but many are angry at Assange and his organization. [LINK:
   http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical_diary/20101206_geopolitics_continue_despite_wikileaks]

   Immediately following Assange's arrest, WikiLeaks spokesperson Kristinn
   Hrafnsson said that it would not stop the group's operations. Indeed,
   whether Assange remains behind bars or not, it most likely will not stop
   the continued leaks of this large batch of US State Department cables.  It
   also will not shut down WikiLeaks, which still maintains its website
   (albeit currently on a Swiss server, after its initial site's were
   deactivated) and the ability to collect information from leakers.  So in
   the short-term, WikiLeaks will continue.  The question remains if Assange
   created a truly sustainable institution-- one where leaders are
   replaceable, members can adapt to changing circumstance, and
   representatives can aid and inspire new leakers.  Will leakers continue to
   go to the, or choose other organizations?

    

   If Assange is extradited to Sweden and tried of one count of unlawful
   coercion, two counts of sexual molestation and one count of rape, the
   question is how much WikiLeaks image will be damaged.  He may try to use
   prison time- especially before trial- to develop his image as a martyr,
   but this can always backfire.  If WikiLeaks, however, is not tied to his
   image, it will be much more sustainable as an organization.  

    

   Western governments also fear whatever is contained in his "insurance"
   file, for which he threatens to release an encryption key if something
   happens to him.  The file was released across the internet and has been
   downloaded by countless number of people.  What it contains is still
   secret, but WikiLeaks may have threatened the US government and others
   with clues to its contents.  WikiLeaks has likely already released its
   most damaging documents in an attempt to get public attention.  This new
   file then probably does not contain higher-level secret information, but
   instead may be full of names.  Those names being sources who will be at
   risk and those of diplomats, military or intelligence officers who could
   lose their jobs or even lives.  These people who could be adversely
   affected by the release of the insurance file also pose another conundrum
   for wikileaks. Exposing them and impacting them in a vindictive manner
   could further tarnish Assange and Wikileaks in the eyes of the
   international public, to include potential financial and information
   contributors.  

    

   WikiLeaks is now facing a conundrum that all new organizations do--the
   ability to maintain and transition leadership through adverse
   circumstances.  Maybe Assange will be released quickly-- STRATFOR cannot
   speak to the veracity of the charges against him-- but if he isn't,
   WikiLeaks survival is brought into question.  But even if WikiLeaks
   disappears, the organizational concept will still continue, and leaks
   along with it.  WikiLeaks has only demonstrated the ability new technology
   has created to transfer such large quantities of documents, and there is
   no reason other organizations will not make use of the same technology.  

    

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 16:15:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1657905_for-edit-assange-arrest-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1658596</id>
    <title>The Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks' Survival
</title>
    <description>    Stratfor logo                                                             
   The Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks' Survival                                 
                                                                              
    December 7, 2010 | 1646 GMT                                               
    The Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks' Survival                                
    FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP/Getty Images                                         
    WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange at the United Nations office in Geneva   
    on Nov. 5                                                                 
    Summary                                                                   
                                                                              
    WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange surrendered to authorities in Britain    
    on Dec. 7, following an Interpol Red Notice based on a Swedish arrest     
    warrant. WikiLeaks is a relatively young organization with one leader     
    and has not institutionalized a set of practices and protocols that       
    guarantee its survival even if the personnel changes. Assange's arrest    
    will test the organization's ability to maintain itself, but the use of   
    the Internet to leak documents will continue.                             
                                                                              
    Analysis                                                                  
    Related Special Topic Page                                                
      * The WikiLeaks Releases                                                
                                                                              
    London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and       
    public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 9:30 a.m. local time on Dec. 7 after   
    Assange turned himself in. He is due to appear in a court in Westminster  
    soon over sexual assault charges filed against him in Sweden, and faces   
    possible extradition.                                                     
                                                                              
    There is considerable interest in what his arrest will mean for his       
    organization. WikiLeaks organized a new method for an old practice -      
    leaking confidential government information in an attempt to influence    
    politics. And while Assange's arrest could disrupt the long-term          
    viability of WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release of the current       
    batch of diplomatic cables in the short term, nor will it stop similar    
    future leaks via the Internet.                                            
                                                                              
    Leadership is extremely important in nongovernmental organizations that   
    have not institutionalized to the point where their dominant figures are  
    replaceable and members can adapt to changing circumstance. From          
    terrorist groups to charities, new organizations often rise and fall      
    with their founders. Assange created WikiLeaks with himself as the only   
    public face - he leads supporters, drives donations, gives interviews     
    and faces the resulting criticism. There have been reports of internal    
    dissent and tensions, and in one interview with CNN, a discussion of the  
    organization's internal politics seemed to touch a nerve with Assange.    
    If Assange were to face charges in Sweden for sexual assault or new       
    charges in the United Kingdom or the United States and was found guilty,  
    WikiLeaks would still need someone to oversee it. Assange may have        
    someone ready to fill the leadership void, but there has been no          
    evidence of this.                                                         
                                                                              
    In addition to having its leadership threatened, WikiLeaks has suffered   
    logistically. As national governments put pressure on its                 
    infrastructure, its web server has been shut down, and most important, a  
    major source of funding, PayPal, has closed WikiLeaks' account (Visa and  
    Mastercard have also banned payments from their cards to WikiLeaks). It   
    is also possible the events of the past few months will deter other       
    potential leakers from approaching WikiLeaks as opposed to other          
    organizations (especially if they dislike or disagree with Assange).      
    Moreover, this new set of documents has not been greeted with the         
    reaction Assange expected - the U.S. public is not angry at the State     
    Department, but many are angry at Assange and his organization.           
                                                                              
    Immediately following Assange's arrest, a WikiLeaks spokesman said the    
    arrest would not stop the group's operations. Indeed, whether Assange     
    remains behind bars or not, it most likely will not stop the continued    
    release of the 250,000 U.S. State Department cables, only a fraction of   
    which have been released thus far. It also will not shut down WikiLeaks,  
    which still maintains its website - albeit currently on a Swiss server,   
    after its initial U.S.-hosted servers were deactivated - and the ability  
    to collect information from leakers. So in the short term, WikiLeaks      
    will persist. The question remains if Assange created a truly             
    sustainable institution.                                                  
                                                                              
    If Assange is extradited to Sweden and tried on one count of unlawful     
    coercion, two counts of sexual molestation and one count of rape, it is   
    not clear to what degree the image of WikiLeaks will be damaged; thus     
    far Assange has cultivated the site as an extension of his persona, and   
    even without the assault charges he is not held in high repute. The       
    extradition process could take months or even years, and he may try to    
    use prison time to develop his image as a martyr for free speech, but     
    this can backfire. If WikiLeaks, however, is not tied to his image, it    
    will be much more sustainable as an organization.                         
                                                                              
    Western governments also fear whatever is contained in his "insurance"    
    file, a 1.4-gigabyte computer file that has already been distributed to   
    many thousands of people over the Internet. Assange has threatened to     
    release the encryption password if something happens to him. As STRATFOR  
    has stated before, WikiLeaks likely led with its most insightful          
    documents, and thus those saved in the insurance file are probably less   
    enlightening than they are damaging. The file may contain no new          
    information at all, but simply the names and information on sources,      
    diplomats, military and intelligence officers not already disclosed.      
    Such a release could put these individuals' jobs or even lives at risk.   
    However, such a release exposing these individuals in a vindictive        
    manner could further tarnish Assange and WikiLeaks in the eyes of the     
    international public, to include potential financial and information      
    contributors. Beyond that, governments will almost certainly take         
    stronger measures against WikiLeaks if it does release identities of      
    classified sources or officers.                                           
                                                                              
    WikiLeaks is now facing a conundrum that all new organizations face at    
    some point - the ability to maintain and transition leadership through    
    adverse circumstances. Assange may be released quickly, but if he is      
    not, WikiLeaks' survival will be in question. However, even if WikiLeaks  
    disappears, the organizational concept will continue, and leaks along     
    with it. WikiLeaks has only demonstrated the ability new technology has   
    created to transfer large quantities of documents, and there is no        
    reason other organizations will not make use of the same technology.      
                                                                              
    Give us your thoughts                          Read comments on           
    on this report                                 other reports              
                                                                              
    For Publication                                Reader Comments            
                                                                              
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    (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 18:38:06</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1658596_the-assange-arrest-and-wikileaks-survival-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>allstratfor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>noreply@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1659802</id>
    <title>CHINA/CSM- Foxconn founder: suicides will stop
</title>
    <description>   Foxconn founder: suicides will stop

   By Wang Xiang  |   2010-5-25  |     NEWSPAPER EDITION
   http://www.shanghaidaily.com/sp/article/2010/201005/20100525/article_438048.htm

   THE founder of Foxconn Terry Gou responded to the spate of eight suicides
   in its Shenzhen factory for the first time yesterday, saying he was
   confident of stopping the trend of tragedies.

   Gou admitted it was hard to manage over 800,000 workers in Foxconn around
   the world, but his factories were "definitely not a sweatshop," China News
   Service reported.

   Gou said the company has started working to change, but he would not
   discuss details.

   Foxconn's Shenzhen factory started to play music on its assembly line
   yesterday to soothe work stress, following eight suicides and two
   attempted suicides among its workers this year.

   The factory - described as a "hell factory" in media reports - said it
   will have a comprehensive plan to improve working conditions within a
   month, Oriental Morning Post reported yesterday.

   As a part of the plan, the factory started to recruit more than 2,000
   singers, dancers and gym trainers on Sunday to help its 400,000 workers
   relax.

   The factory also plans to hire more psychiatrists to help its workers deal
   with stress.

   In the meantime, new fences are being installed on every workers'
   dormitory building. The fences now rise up to 3 meters and are meant to
   prevent suicidal workers from jumping off, the report said.

   But some workers told the newspaper that adding fences were only
   superficial and suicidal workers would surely find other ways to end their
   lives. They said the wire fence even added to their stress, making workers
   feel they were living in prison every day.

   More than 400,000 workers live in the 3-square-kilometer factory area.
   According to media reports, the workers have to work through their days
   like a machine. Starting work at 4am every day, the workers repeat the
   same moves thousands of times.

   One worker told Guangdong based Southern Weekend that he would
   deliberately drop something on the ground so that he could have a few
   seconds of rest when picking it up.

   A Shenzhen Foxconn spokesman said after the ninth jumper killed himself
   that deeper social problems were to blame for the workers' deaths and the
   factory was not at fault.

   Read more:
   http://www.shanghaidaily.com/sp/article/2010/201005/20100525/article_438048.htm#ixzz0ospWF4eU

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-05-24 23:07:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1659802_china-csm-foxconn-founder-suicides-will-stop-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>os@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1660708</id>
    <title>Random Business Idea - Network Security
</title>
    <description>   I'm sure this has been thought of before at STRATFOR so excuse the
   redundancy. I was reading a solid Forbes article on Assange and it said
   that a large number of deep pocket corporations were looking into
   leak-focused network security after these Wikileak episodes.

   I was wondering if it was possible for us to get some of that
   "leak-focused" gravy train. This is an obvious fear sale, so that's a good
   thing. And we have something to offer that the IT security companies
   don't, mainly our focus on counter-intelligence and surveillance that Fred
   and Stick know better than anyone on the planet.

   We do a lot of good work with all the personal/executive security analysis
   as well. Could we develop some ideas and procedures on the idea of
   "leak-focused" network security that focuses on preventing one's own
   employees from leaking sensitive information.

   The point here is that I am sure there are certain procedures and
   precautions that companies should employ that go beyond installing network
   security network to deal with potential leaks. In fact, Im not so sure
   this is an IT problem that requires an IT solution.

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 03:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1660708_random-business-idea-network-security-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Don.kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>grant.perry@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1660854</id>
    <title>OBL take -- quick response needed
</title>
    <description>I can get access to the materials seized from the OBL safe house. 

What are the top (not 45) questions we want addressed? 
</description>
    <date>2011-05-12 22:25:38</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1660854_obl-take-quick-response-needed-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1661172</id>
    <title>Fwd: Re: US 'to view major cyber attacks as acts of war'
</title>
    <description>   from a source on this...

   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: Re: US 'to view major cyber attacks as acts of war' 
      Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2011 07:44:52 -0400                     
      From: Veni Markovski &lt;veni@veni.com&gt;                      
        To: Nate Hughes &lt;hughes@stratfor.com&gt;                   

 Nate,
 this is sooo old, that even I (though it's not a good idea to quote
 myself) wrote about it in 1998, in the Bulgarian Military Journal
 magazine (issue 5 for 1998). The article is here:
 http://www.veni.com/pastwork/voenen_zhurnal.html

 That's not a new doctrine, it is very old, there are a number of studies
 (I just re-read my article, and there are references to resolutions of
 the UN, dealing with military responses, etc.), so what comes these days
 as a news, is not a real news. It sounds fancy right now, but I doubt
 that the Pentagon will actually engage the US in real military actions
 (because, if the US responds with conventional weapons, then under the
 current international conventions, it might be considered an aggressor -
 which is not the goal of the US, one could guess).

 Plus, of course, the fact that unlike a conventional war / aggression,
 it will be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to prove state
 engagement.

 Best,
 veni

 On 5/31/2011 18:13, Nate Hughes wrote:
 &gt; Veni,
 &gt;
 &gt; We've been discussing this internally today. What do you make of it?
 &gt; Any word about what the actual public statement is expected to look
 &gt; like? We always appreciate your insight.
 &gt;
 &gt; Hope all is well.
 &gt;
 &gt; Cheers,
 &gt;
 &gt; Nate
 &gt;
 &gt;&gt; *Cyber Combat: Act of War
 &gt;&gt; Pentagon Sets Stage for U.S. to Respond to Computer Sabotage With
 &gt;&gt; Military Force*
 &gt;&gt;     MAY 31, 2011
 &gt;&gt; http://online.wsj.com/article
 &gt;&gt; /SB10001424052702304563104576355623135782718.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
 &gt;&gt; By SIOBHAN GORMAN And JULIAN E. BARNES
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; WASHINGTON-The Pentagon has concluded that computer sabotage coming
 &gt;&gt; from another country can constitute an act of war, a finding that for
 &gt;&gt; the first time opens the door for the U.S. to respond using
 &gt;&gt; traditional military force.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; The Pentagon's first formal cyber strategy, unclassified portions of
 &gt;&gt; which are expected to become public next month, represents an early
 &gt;&gt; attempt to grapple with a changing world in which a hacker could pose
 &gt;&gt; as significant a threat to U.S. nuclear reactors, subways or
 &gt;&gt; pipelines as a hostile country's military.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; In part, the Pentagon intends its plan as a warning to potential
 &gt;&gt; adversaries of the consequences of attacking the U.S. in this way.
 &gt;&gt; "If you shut down our power grid, maybe we will put a missile down
 &gt;&gt; one of your smokestacks," said a military official.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; Recent attacks on the Pentagon's own systems-as well as the
 &gt;&gt; sabotaging of Iran's nuclear program via the Stuxnet computer
 &gt;&gt; worm-have given new urgency to U.S. efforts to develop a more
 &gt;&gt; formalized approach to cyber attacks. A key moment occurred in 2008,
 &gt;&gt; when at least one U.S. military computer system was penetrated. This
 &gt;&gt; weekend Lockheed Martin, a major military contractor, acknowledged
 &gt;&gt; that it had been the victim of an infiltration, while playing down
 &gt;&gt; its impact.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; The report will also spark a debate over a range of sensitive issues
 &gt;&gt; the Pentagon left unaddressed, including whether the U.S. can ever be
 &gt;&gt; certain about an attack's origin, and how to define when computer
 &gt;&gt; sabotage is serious enough to constitute an act of war. These
 &gt;&gt; questions have already been a topic of dispute within the military.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; One idea gaining momentum at the Pentagon is the notion of
 &gt;&gt; "equivalence." If a cyber attack produces the death, damage,
 &gt;&gt; destruction or high-level disruption that a traditional military
 &gt;&gt; attack would cause, then it would be a candidate for a "use of force"
 &gt;&gt; consideration, which could merit retaliation.
 &gt;&gt; The War on Cyber Attacks
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; Attacks of varying severity have rattled nations in recent years.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; June 2009: First version of Stuxnet virus starts spreading,
 &gt;&gt; eventually sabotaging Iran's nuclear program. Some experts suspect it
 &gt;&gt; was an Israeli attempt, possibly with American help.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; November 2008: A computer virus believed to have originated in Russia
 &gt;&gt; succeeds in penetrating at least one classified U.S. military
 &gt;&gt; computer network.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; August 2008: Online attack on websites of Georgian government
 &gt;&gt; agencies and financial institutions at start of brief war between
 &gt;&gt; Russia and Georgia.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; May 2007: Attack on Estonian banking and government websites occurs
 &gt;&gt; that is similar to the later one in Georgia but has greater impact
 &gt;&gt; because Estonia is more dependent on online banking.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; The Pentagon's document runs about 30 pages in its classified version
 &gt;&gt; and 12 pages in the unclassified one. It concludes that the Laws of
 &gt;&gt; Armed Conflict-derived from various treaties and customs that, over
 &gt;&gt; the years, have come to guide the conduct of war and proportionality
 &gt;&gt; of response-apply in cyberspace as in traditional warfare, according
 &gt;&gt; to three defense officials who have read the document. The document
 &gt;&gt; goes on to describe the Defense Department's dependence on
 &gt;&gt; information technology and why it must forge partnerships with other
 &gt;&gt; nations and private industry to protect infrastructure.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; The strategy will also state the importance of synchronizing U.S.
 &gt;&gt; cyber-war doctrine with that of its allies, and will set out
 &gt;&gt; principles for new security policies. The North Atlantic Treaty
 &gt;&gt; Organization took an initial step last year when it decided that, in
 &gt;&gt; the event of a cyber attack on an ally, it would convene a group to
 &gt;&gt; "consult together" on the attacks, but they wouldn't be required to
 &gt;&gt; help each other respond. The group hasn't yet met to confer on a
 &gt;&gt; cyber incident.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; Pentagon officials believe the most-sophisticated computer attacks
 &gt;&gt; require the resources of a government. For instance, the weapons used
 &gt;&gt; in a major technological assault, such as taking down a power grid,
 &gt;&gt; would likely have been developed with state support, Pentagon
 &gt;&gt; officials say.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; The move to formalize the Pentagon's thinking was borne of the
 &gt;&gt; military's realization the U.S. has been slow to build up defenses
 &gt;&gt; against these kinds of attacks, even as civilian and military
 &gt;&gt; infrastructure has grown more dependent on the Internet. The military
 &gt;&gt; established a new command last year, headed by the director of the
 &gt;&gt; National Security Agency, to consolidate military network security
 &gt;&gt; and attack efforts.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; The Pentagon itself was rattled by the 2008 attack, a breach
 &gt;&gt; significant enough that the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs briefed
 &gt;&gt; then-President George W. Bush. At the time, Pentagon officials said
 &gt;&gt; they believed the attack originated in Russia, although didn't say
 &gt;&gt; whether they believed the attacks were connected to the government.
 &gt;&gt; Russia has denied involvement.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; The Rules of Armed Conflict that guide traditional wars are derived
 &gt;&gt; from a series of international treaties, such as the Geneva
 &gt;&gt; Conventions, as well as practices that the U.S. and other nations
 &gt;&gt; consider customary international law. But cyber warfare isn't covered
 &gt;&gt; by existing treaties. So military officials say they want to seek a
 &gt;&gt; consensus among allies about how to proceed.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; "Act of war" is a political phrase, not a legal term, said Charles
 &gt;&gt; Dunlap, a retired Air Force Major General and professor at Duke
 &gt;&gt; University law school. Gen. Dunlap argues cyber attacks that have a
 &gt;&gt; violent effect are the legal equivalent of armed attacks, or what the
 &gt;&gt; military calls a "use of force."
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; "A cyber attack is governed by basically the same rules as any other
 &gt;&gt; kind of attack if the effects of it are essentially the same," Gen.
 &gt;&gt; Dunlap said Monday. The U.S. would need to show that the cyber weapon
 &gt;&gt; used had an effect that was the equivalent of a conventional attack.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; James Lewis, a computer-security specialist at the Center for
 &gt;&gt; Strategic and International Studies who has advised the Obama
 &gt;&gt; administration, said Pentagon officials are currently figuring out
 &gt;&gt; what kind of cyber attack would constitute a use of force. Many
 &gt;&gt; military planners believe the trigger for retaliation should be the
 &gt;&gt; amount of damage-actual or attempted-caused by the attack.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; For instance, if computer sabotage shut down as much commerce as
 &gt;&gt; would a naval blockade, it could be considered an act of war that
 &gt;&gt; justifies retaliation, Mr. Lewis said. Gauges would include "death,
 &gt;&gt; damage, destruction or a high level of disruption" he said.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; Culpability, military planners argue in internal Pentagon debates,
 &gt;&gt; depends on the degree to which the attack, or the weapons themselves,
 &gt;&gt; can be linked to a foreign government. That's a tricky prospect at
 &gt;&gt; the best of times.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; The brief 2008 war between Russia and Georgia included a cyber attack
 &gt;&gt; that disrupted the websites of Georgian government agencies and
 &gt;&gt; financial institutions. The damage wasn't permanent but did disrupt
 &gt;&gt; communication early in the war.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; A subsequent NATO study said it was too hard to apply the laws of
 &gt;&gt; armed conflict to that cyber attack because both the perpetrator and
 &gt;&gt; impact were unclear. At the time, Georgia blamed its neighbor,
 &gt;&gt; Russia, which denied any involvement.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; Much also remains unknown about one of the best-known cyber weapons,
 &gt;&gt; the Stuxnet computer virus that sabotaged some of Iran's nuclear
 &gt;&gt; centrifuges. While some experts suspect it was an Israeli attack,
 &gt;&gt; because of coding characteristics, possibly with American assistance,
 &gt;&gt; that hasn't been proven. Iran was the location of only 60% of the
 &gt;&gt; infections, according to a study by the computer security firm
 &gt;&gt; Symantec. Other locations included Indonesia, India, Pakistan and the
 &gt;&gt; U.S.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; Officials from Israel and the U.S. have declined to comment on the
 &gt;&gt; allegations.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; Defense officials refuse to discuss potential cyber adversaries,
 &gt;&gt; although military and intelligence officials say they have identified
 &gt;&gt; previous attacks originating in Russia and China. A 2009
 &gt;&gt; government-sponsored report from the U.S.-China Economic and Security
 &gt;&gt; Review Commission said that China's People's Liberation Army has its
 &gt;&gt; own computer warriors, the equivalent of the American National
 &gt;&gt; Security Agency.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; That's why military planners believe the best way to deter major
 &gt;&gt; attacks is to hold countries that build cyber weapons responsible for
 &gt;&gt; their use. A parallel, outside experts say, is the George W. Bush
 &gt;&gt; administration's policy of holding foreign governments accountable
 &gt;&gt; for harboring terrorist organizations, a policy that led to the U.S.
 &gt;&gt; military campaign to oust the Taliban from power in Afghanistan.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; Read more:
 &gt;&gt; http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304563104576355623135782718.html#ixzz1NwYdh89v
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; *US 'to view major cyber attacks as acts of war'*
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; 31 May 2011 - 13H04
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; http://www.france24.com/en/20110531-us-view-major-cyber-attacks-acts-war
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; AFP - The Pentagon has adopted a new strategy that will classify
 &gt;&gt; major cyber attacks as acts of war, paving the way for possible
 &gt;&gt; military retaliation, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; The newspaper said the Pentagon plans to unveil its first-ever
 &gt;&gt; strategy regarding cyber warfare next month, in part as a warning to
 &gt;&gt; foes that may try to sabotage the country's electricity grid, subways
 &gt;&gt; or pipelines.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; "If you shut down our power grid, maybe we will put a missile down
 &gt;&gt; one of your smokestacks," it quoted a military official as saying.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; The newspaper, citing three officials who had seen the document, said
 &gt;&gt; the the strategy would maintain that the existing international rules
 &gt;&gt; of armed conflict -- embodied in treaties and customs -- would apply
 &gt;&gt; in cyberspace.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; It said the Pentagon would likely decide whether to respond
 &gt;&gt; militarily to cyber attacks based on the notion of "equivalence" --
 &gt;&gt; whether the attack was comparable in damage to a conventional
 &gt;&gt; military strike.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; Such a decision would also depend on whether the precise source of
 &gt;&gt; the attack could be determined.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; The decision to formalize the rules of cyber war comes after the
 &gt;&gt; Stuxnet attack last year ravaged Iran's nuclear program. That attack
 &gt;&gt; was blamed on the United States and Israel, both of which declined to
 &gt;&gt; comment on it.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; It also follows a major cyber attack on the US military in 2008 that
 &gt;&gt; served as a wake-up call and prompted major changes in how the
 &gt;&gt; Pentagon handles digital threats, including the formation of a new
 &gt;&gt; cyber military command.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; Over the weekend Lockheed Martin, one of the world's largest defense
 &gt;&gt; contractors, said it was investigating the source of a "significant
 &gt;&gt; and tenacious" cyber attack against its information network one week ago.
 &gt;&gt;
 &gt;&gt; President Barack Obama was briefed about the attack.
</description>
    <date>2011-06-01 15:20:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1661172_fwd-re-us-to-view-major-cyber-attacks-as-acts-of-war-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1662335</id>
    <title>Re: Fwd: RE: UK arrests 5 under security law near nuclear site
</title>
    <description>   Uh, isn't what Stick said that if they had plans in the works they
   would've carried them out, not saved them for UBL's death??

   On 5/3/11 10:13 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

     -------- Original Message --------

     Subject: RE: UK arrests 5 under security law near nuclear site 
        Date: Tue, 3 May 2011 09:48:48 -0400                        
        From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;          
          To: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;                     

     We will be seeing many more of these actions in days to come. I'm
     getting pinged 24/7 by contacts/clients on the implications of UBL's
     demise.

      

     BTW: Nice piece from Scott. This is exactly the message we're sending
     out as well. IC has known since at least mid-2002 that AQ and other
     groups have (allegedly) had operations planned in the event UBL was
     killed/captured. In our estimation, soft targets overseas will be hit
     first. We're telling our clients that if terror groups are using ops
     plans that are already on the shelf, the surveillance they're likely to
     see around their facilities will be quick and dirty. Just a few runs for
     Red Light/Green Light verification. Telling all of them to get up on
     their toes and start looking for surveillance and get it into the
     TrapWire database for comparison. (Between you and me, we were seeing
     some really hinky stuff going on out west even before UBL takedown).

      

     Mike

      

     From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Tuesday, May 03, 2011 8:37 AM
     To: Michael Maness
     Subject: UK arrests 5 under security law near nuclear site

      

     UK arrests 5 under security law near nuclear site

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/03/us-britain-sellafield-idUSTRE74227A20110503?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=worldNews&amp;utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FworldNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+International%29

     LONDON | Tue May 3, 2011 6:40am EDT

     LONDON (Reuters) - Police said on Tuesday they had arrested five men
     close to the Sellafield nuclear reprocessing plant in northwest England
     under counter-terrorism laws.

     Cumbria police said the men were arrested on Monday after officers
     conducted a stop check on a vehicle near the site.

     The men are all aged in their 20s and from London, police said.

      

      

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-05-03 17:17:38</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1662335_re-fwd-re-uk-arrests-5-under-security-law-near-nuclear-site-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1662432</id>
    <title>Re: UK arrests 5 under security law near nuclear site
</title>
    <description>   And what does 'hinky' mean?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Secure List" &lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, 3 May, 2011 11:17:38 PM
   Subject: Re: Fwd: RE: UK arrests 5 under security law near nuclear site

   Uh, isn't what Stick said that if they had plans in the works they
   would've carried them out, not saved them for UBL's death??

   On 5/3/11 10:13 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

     -------- Original Message --------

     Subject: RE: UK arrests 5 under security law near nuclear site 
        Date: Tue, 3 May 2011 09:48:48 -0400                        
        From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;          
          To: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;                     

     We will be seeing many more of these actions in days to come. I'm
     getting pinged 24/7 by contacts/clients on the implications of UBL's
     demise.

      

     BTW: Nice piece from Scott. This is exactly the message we're sending
     out as well. IC has known since at least mid-2002 that AQ and other
     groups have (allegedly) had operations planned in the event UBL was
     killed/captured. In our estimation, soft targets overseas will be hit
     first. We're telling our clients that if terror groups are using ops
     plans that are already on the shelf, the surveillance they're likely to
     see around their facilities will be quick and dirty. Just a few runs for
     Red Light/Green Light verification. Telling all of them to get up on
     their toes and start looking for surveillance and get it into the
     TrapWire database for comparison. (Between you and me, we were seeing
     some really hinky stuff going on out west even before UBL takedown).

      

     Mike

      

     From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Tuesday, May 03, 2011 8:37 AM
     To: Michael Maness
     Subject: UK arrests 5 under security law near nuclear site

      

     UK arrests 5 under security law near nuclear site

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/03/us-britain-sellafield-idUSTRE74227A20110503?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=worldNews&amp;utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FworldNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+International%29

     LONDON | Tue May 3, 2011 6:40am EDT

     LONDON (Reuters) - Police said on Tuesday they had arrested five men
     close to the Sellafield nuclear reprocessing plant in northwest England
     under counter-terrorism laws.

     Cumbria police said the men were arrested on Monday after officers
     conducted a stop check on a vehicle near the site.

     The men are all aged in their 20s and from London, police said.

      

      

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 186 0122 5004
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-05-03 17:21:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1662432_re-uk-arrests-5-under-security-law-near-nuclear-site-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1662861</id>
    <title>Fwd: RE: UK arrests 5 under security law near nuclear site
</title>
    <description>   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: RE: UK arrests 5 under security law near nuclear site 
      Date: Tue, 3 May 2011 12:18:11 -0400                        
      From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;          
        To: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;                     

   Roger -- CONUS.

    

   No good intel on types of ops, but the scut work's been done and won't
   take them long to spin up.

   FYI: I've had two separate queries from overseas asking if it was true
   that AQ had dirty-bombs in place in Europe to use in event of UBL's
   demise. Kind of wacky, but goes to show you how jumpy people are getting
   right now.

    

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Tuesday, May 03, 2011 11:14 AM
   To: Michael Maness
   Subject: Re: UK arrests 5 under security law near nuclear site

    

   Out West in CONUS? 

   Any sense of what kind of ops were planned in case OBL was whacked?

   Thanks much, Fred

    
</description>
    <date>2011-05-03 18:19:08</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1662861_fwd-re-uk-arrests-5-under-security-law-near-nuclear-site-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1663327</id>
    <title>Re: Assange is off the hook...
</title>
    <description>   should we change our Stratfor motto now?
   Predictive, insightful intelligence...in a post-Cablegate world.
   On Dec 5, 2010, at 10:05 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

     This guy needs to take pills for his ego:

      He suggested, not for the first time, that he believes his document
      service has had a profound effect on world history: *I believe geopolitics
      will be separated into pre- and post-Cablegate phases.*

     Also, I have a question about this part (this is Assange's lawyer saying
     how Wikileaks would release full versions of all files -- including
     names of spies, etc. -- if harmed):

      WikiLeaks, Mr. Stephens said, has *been subject to cyberattacks and
      censorship around the world and they need to protect themselves ... This
      is what they believe to be a thermonuclear device in the information age.*

     Let's say the following scenario happens. Assange is arrested and
     extradicted to Sweden to face rape charges. Wikileaks releases the
     password to the insurance files. Would he not then be directly
     endangering U.S. and other country intelligence professionals? Would it
     not then be possible to prosecute him for espionage? 

     -- 
     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
     Marko Papic
     Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
     STRATFOR
     700 Lavaca Street - 900
     Austin, Texas
     78701 USA
     P: + 1-512-744-4094
     marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-06 05:11:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1663327_re-assange-is-off-the-hook-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1664671</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - AFGHANISTAN/PAKISTAN - ISI Chief ***Not for
 sharing beyond list***
</title>
    <description>   Great insight.  The bit about the Pasha-Panetta discussion that is then
   hijacked by DoS' involvement in the Davis case is very interesting. 

   On 4/12/11 1:34 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     I think the details of the entire interaction (in addition to the actual
     conversation) provides value. Hence the context. Also, I don't want to
     upset my delicate relationship with the directorate and the wider
     military establishment so let us not share this beyond the list.

     Spoke to him over the phone on the 11th of last month. At the time he
     was very busy (the Raymond Davis issue hadn't been settled and intense
     talks were taking place). I'm actually surprised he took my call. But
     then I was using my DC cell phone, which may explain him personally
     picking up the phone.

     Given his preoccupation and my own trips to Kabul and Cairo he said let
     us try to meet and play it by ear. In the brief conversation I asked him
     what was up with him getting another extension (he hadn't gotten it at
     the time) to which he replied that he is staying on in his position for
     quite a while. He asked me if I needed any security assistance while I
     was in country and I respectfully declined the offer.

     Our meeting Monday of last week was organized by the military's pr wing
     (the 2-star heading the dept and his chief of staff) and the ISI's pr
     people (in particular a certain Colonel Zaka). The last two times I met
     the ISI chief, it was at his residence inside Joint Staff Headquarters
     at Chaklala Garrison in Rawalpindi. This time around, the meeting took
     place in the super secure headquarters in Islamabad.

     In recent years there have many a lot of new roads constructed in the
     capital, especially around the ISI headquarters and then the jihadist
     insurgency led to the closure of the main road that ran in front of the
     directorate. So, it was interesting to actually get into the facility.
     Was directed to take a side/rear road into the complex.

     Had to go through five layers of security to get into the place. There
     were five check posts each with concrete as well as delta barriers and
     several armed men. The first two layers had guys with plain clothes with
     walkie talkies and guns while the inner three had uniformed men.

     Once after the main barrier, which is an iron gate you enter the
     courtyard of the new main building adjacent to the old ones. A really
     fine structure recently completed when the current army chief was
     heading the ISI and Musharraf was in charge - from the inside it
     resembles a 5-star hotel in terms of the quality of the interior
     finishing.

     I was told by the guard at the front door to park at the rear of the
     building. So I parked and walked back to the front. Once in the building
     and making my way through the metal detector I was greeted by a
     plainclothes official who said I didn't need to take out my blackberries
     to pass through the machine and asked me to hand them over to the guys
     at the reception who were also plainclothes people.

     The guys didn't look tech savvy but I would be surprised if others
     didn't go through my list of contacts and emails. The official who was
     wearing a tie and had two devices attached to his hip with a small
     earpiece escorted me to the fourth floor and seated me in a waiting room
     which could be accessed through two wooden doors and one made of glass.
     I was early and turned on the tv and waited for about 15 minutes before
     another person in a black suit and tie came in and took me to a meeting
     room where a minute later DG-ISI Lt-Gen Ahmed Shuja Pasha came in and
     greeted me warmly remarking that I had come after a long time.

     We had a 30 minute conversation, which began with him asking me what was
     happening in Libya saying that Tripoli had asked for Islamabad's
     assistance - a request that was under consideration and wanted my
     thoughts on a) what was happening there; b) what I thought Pakistan
     could do to help. He also said that the U.S. seems to have made the
     wrong decision to intervene militarily. I briefly gave him our
     assessment of the situation and suggested that sending troops to Libya
     or Bahrain was very risky (which he agreed) but added that perhaps
     Pakistan could work with Turkey since Ankara is trying to take the lead
     in a diplomatic solution to the crisis there but I didn't know what kind
     of leverage Pakistan had with the rebels or the govt. By this time an
     aide had brought in tea and cookies in a really nice set of chinaware.

     I then asked him what was the status of U.S.-Pakistani relations
     specifically CIA-ISI post Raymond Davis. He said the relationship has
     not really changed. Of course it hasn't improved but it hasn't
     deteriorated further below the existing levels and told me he would be
     in DC to discuss the issue on the 11th. He then went into the details of
     what had happened with the Raymod Davis matter saying that this issue
     could have been solved if the Americans had kept it between the CIA and
     the ISI.

     He said he called up Panetta (who said he had a really good personal
     friendship with the D-CIA saying he was the only U.S. official whom he
     had invited to his house and introduced to his wife and son) asking him
     that we should sort out the issues between our two agencies. Panetta
     told him that he couldn't because State was taking the lead on it. Pasha
     said he was disappointed at this response and knew that this was about
     to turn into a diplomatic row and media ruckus.

     At that point he said the ISI let Punjab police handle the investigation
     and no one on the Pakistani side taking responsibility. The government
     said the matter is in the hands of the courts and the courts looking at
     the foreign ministry for answers about the status of Davis' immunity.
     All of this he said could have been avoided if it were not for State
     getting involved. Ultimately he said it came back to the ISI and we were
     able to work out an arrangement with the CIA. He also said once it
     became a media issue we were really worried that Davis might be killed
     by people from within the police service. (Another 2-star I met said
     there were concerns that the Americans could have him killed and we
     would be in deep shit). We wanted him gone and as soon as possible and
     thankfully we were able to pull it off.

     But he said that there are still unresolved questions about the people
     who Davis killed. He said they were not ISI sleuths as some suspect.
     Rather, low level thugs who had a lot of cash on them and in different
     currencies, which is

     On the domestic insurgency he said you can see things are much better.
     He added that in fact the situation was really good. The attacks were
     down and limited to a certain area.

     But it would take another 10-12 years to completely get rid of the issue
     and a lot depends on how the Americans settle Afghanistan. On North
     Waziristan he said, he has been saying that we need to do an operation
     there for several years now going back to the days when I was Director
     General Military Operations and was overseeing the early days of our
     counter-insurgency efforts in the northwest. But the issue is one of
     logistics.

     The only way to mount an offensive in NW is through South Waziristan,
     which we are trying to stabilize with the building of roads and
     resettlement of locals. We also needed to stabilize the tribal agencies
     to the north of North Waziristan, which is also a work in progress. Once
     we have achieved our goals of stabilizing SW, we will move into NW.  

     At this point, the ISI chief picks up the phone and asks one his aides
     to connect him to a certain official within the directorate (he referred
     to him as Director something can't quite remember). The guy comes in
     with a cell phone and the chief speaks with the guy asking him if the
     friends had given the coordinates for south waziristan. He then asks if
     it is south of a particular area or north. After that he says that is
     all I wanted to know and hangs up and apologizes for having to make the
     call.

     On Afghanistan, he said the Americans are stuck with the old notion that
     Pakistan wants to see the Taliban come to power again in Afghanistan.
     Anti-Pakistan and pro-India analysts and advisers in the U.S. and
     elsewhere continue to feed that perception. This is an outdated view
     because Islamabad has long given up that goal given the threat to
     Pakistani security. We do not wish to see the Talibs dominate
     Afghanistan.

     On the contrary, we want to see a broad-based government that can end
     the civil war in that country, which has had a disastrous fallout for
     us. Of course the Talibs will be a key player in a post-NATO
     Afghanistan, which we feel is necessary for true peace to take place.
     But that is just an acknowledgment of a reality than a desire on our
     part to see Talibs rule Kabul.

     Even the U.S. realizes that there will be a deal with the Talibs so why
     the double standards when it comes to us (especially when we will have
     to deal with the situation once after the U.S. leaves)? Pakistan wants
     to see a friendly government - one that can maintain peace in the
     country. Such a govt can only come about when the Karzai government can
     reach a negotiated settlement with the insurgents, which is not going to
     happen by talking to the former Talibs like Zaeef, Mutawakkil, etc.

     I asked him if the Obama admin had approached Pakistan to help with the
     negotiations. He said no such thing happening, which he said was the
     problem. He added that DC and Kabul need to involve us in the process
     because if anyone can deliver it is us and we have an interest in doing
     so. Look at what happened during that incident with the meeting with the
     man who they thought was Mullah Mansoor but in reality he was a
     shopkeeper who swindled them for money and made a mockery of everyone
     including Petraeus who actually met the guy (laughs and smirks at this
     point).

     At this point the guy who brought me into the room comes and in and says
     it is time for your next meeting. The chief says give me a few more
     minutes and we continue talking and he says I really appreciate the work
     you are doing in terms of steering clear of taking any sides. I then
     thank him and we begin to walk out of the room.

     At this point I asked him if there was any change to his email address
     and Pasha says I am sorry I have not been in regular touch over email
     because these people were reading my messages and I had to have my pc
     cleaned but I am still using the old email address. I asked who was
     reading his emails and he replied there is only one entity in Pakistan
     who can do that. (I take it he meant people from within the directorate
     were doing so).

     He walked me to the elevator from where I was escorted by another young
     man in black down to the lobby from where I collected my blackberries
     and he then escorted outside and asked me where I was parked to which I
     replied at the rear of the building and he then walked me to my car
     during which I asked him how long he had been serving in the ISI and he
     said for quite some time (I had hoped he would tell me the number of
     years). He waited until I pulled out and then waved and left and I drove
     out of the complex passing the same set of security layers I had
     encountered on my way in. 

      

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-04-12 21:16:14</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-16 21:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1664671_re-alpha-insight-afghanistan-pakistan-isi-chief-not-for.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1666377</id>
    <title>FBI (more) on Body
</title>
    <description>   Down &amp; dirty done, He already sleeps with the fish....

   ** Fred's Note:  Although I don't really give a rats ass, it seems to me
   that by dropping the corpse in the ocean, the body will come back to haunt
   us....gotta be violating some sort of obscure heathen religious rule that
   will inflame islam?  I was sleeping thru that class at Langley. 

   The US Govt needs to make body pics available like the MX's do, with OBL's
   pants pulled down, to shout down the lunatics like Alex Jones and Glenn
   Beck. 

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-05-02 15:11:03</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1666377_fbi-more-on-body-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1666395</id>
    <title>Re: [Social] Burlesconi orgy - WARNING NUDITY
</title>
    <description>   Some of the photos were reportedly taken during a party held at the villa
   for a visiting Czech delegation under the leadership of former Prime
   Minister Mirek Topolanek.

   El Pais said it was unable to confirm whether the picture of the naked man
   it published was that of Mr Topolanek. Mr Berlusconi's lawyer has
   previously said such a photo existed.

   Berlusconi fury over naked photos

   Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi has reacted angrily to the publication in
   Spain of photographs showing topless women and a naked man at his villa.

   He has threatened to sue Spain's El Pais newspaper, calling the photos an
   invasion of privacy.

   The photos - banned in Italy on privacy grounds - were taken from outside
   Mr Berlusconi's villa in Sardinia during a party for a Czech delegation.

   He also faces a probe for using state aircraft to fly guests to Sardinia.

   The prime minister is said to have used Italian aircraft to ferry guests
   to and from Villa Certosa, "almost every weekend" between the summer of
   2007 and January of this year, El Pais reports.

   Mr Berlusconi is being investigated for misuse of public funds, and
   confirmed on Thursday that he had been formally placed under investigation
   by prosecutors.

   But he said the probe would be "swiftly shelved", insisting he was allowed
   to transport "people he needs" for security reasons.

   Mystery man

   Under the headline "The pictures vetoed by Berlusconi", El Pais on Friday
   published five photos shot by photographer Antonello Zappadu from outside
   the gates of the Berlusconi villa.

   In the first, the face of the Italian prime minister - recently embroiled
   in a public row over his friendship with an 18-year-old model - can be
   clearly seen. He is accompanied by several women, with the face of one of
   them pixelated by the photographer and the others obscured by an awning.

   a** These are innocent photos, there's no scandal but this is a violation
   of privacy and a scandalous aggression a**
   Silvio Berlusconi Italian Prime Minister

   El Pais said that, to protect their identities, Mr Zappadu had pixelated
   the faces of all those photographed - with the exception of Mr Berlusconi.

   The second photograph shows two topless women, one standing and one lying
   on a sun lounger in the Sardinian sunshine. The woman standing is wearing
   nothing except a skimpy set of "thong" bikini briefs.

   But the third picture is the most stark, showing a fully naked man leaning
   over the edge of a swimming pool.

   El Pais said the pictures were examples of the approximately 300 which
   were blocked from publication in Italy at the weekend at Mr Berlusconi's
   request.

   Some of the photos were reportedly taken during a party held at the villa
   for a visiting Czech delegation under the leadership of former Prime
   Minister Mirek Topolanek.

   El Pais said it was unable to confirm whether the picture of the naked man
   it published was that of Mr Topolanek. Mr Berlusconi's lawyer has
   previously said such a photo existed.

   Other photographs reportedly include scenes of parties attended by several
   young women, including the 18-year-old model Noemi Letizia.

   'Nothing spicy'

   Mr Berlusconi has been under pressure to explain his relationship with Ms
   Letizia since his wife, Veronica Lario, said last month she was divorcing
   him after he had attended her 18th birthday party and gave her an
   expensive necklace. He has denied having an affair with her.

   Mr Berlusconi denounced the paparazzi on Friday for violating his privacy
   and "scandalous aggression", saying the photographs were entirely
   "innocent".

   When asked by Italian state-run Rai radio why there had been several naked
   women at his villa, he replied: "Do you take a shower dressed?"

   "These girls were bathing in a whirlpool bath inside a private home, and
   they were assaulted in a scandalous way.

   "These are innocent photos, there's no scandal but this is a violation of
   privacy and a scandalous aggression.

   The 72-year-old also repeated that there had been nothing "spicy" in his
   relations with Ms Letizia and that he would resign "the next minute" if
   proved otherwise.

   His lawyer, Niccolo Ghedini, described the photographs as having
   "originated in a crime", adding: "Who buys them anywhere in the world is
   committing a crime, something which should have been clear to El Pais'
   journalists," he said.

   'Petty'

   According to reports, prosecutors in Rome also found several pictures
   taken at Sardinia's Olbia airport before and after the parties.

   They allegedly showed Mr Berlusconi's favourite singer, Mariano Apicella,
   his assistant, and an unidentified woman getting off the prime minister's
   official plane in May last year.

   Prosecutors were forced to open an investigation into Mr Berlusconi's use
   of public assets after a complaint was filed by a consumer association,
   Codacons.

   "It means nothing. It will be shelved very soon," Berlusconi told a Milan
   television station via phone on Thursday.

   "There is a rule, passed by the prime minister's office, that allows the
   prime minister, when he uses state planes for reasons of security, to take
   with him people he feels he needs at no cost," he said.

   However, the newspaper La Stampa has said the regulation did not take
   effect until August, three months after the airport pictures.

   Mr Berlusconi said he had entertained several heads of state and
   government - including Mr Topolanek - at his villa in Sardinia, and had
   "offered all that I receive from them, including shows with artistes".

   "But this is not a burden on the [Italian] state," he added.

   The prime minister called the accusations "petty" and suggested they had
   been timed to coincide with this week's European Parliament elections.
   Italians are set to vote on Saturday and Sunday.

   Story from BBC NEWS:
   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Robin Blackburn" &lt;blackburn@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Social list" &lt;social@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Friday, June 5, 2009 2:29:39 PM GMT -05:00 Colombia
   Subject: Re: [Social] Burlesconi orgy - WARNING NUDITY

   I love how they blurred out the faces, but not the penises.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Alex Posey" &lt;alex.posey@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Social list" &lt;social@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Friday, June 5, 2009 2:20:53 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: [Social] Burlesconi orgy - WARNING NUDITY

   http://www.elpais.com/fotogaleria/imagenes/censuradas/Berlusconi/6527-1/elpgal/

 --
 Alex Posey
 STRATFOR
 alex.posey@stratfor.com
 Office: 512.744.4303
 Cell: 512.351.6645
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1666395_re-social-burlesconi-orgy-warning-nudity-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>social@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1666617</id>
    <title>Stratfor's World Snapshot
</title>
    <description>    Stratfor logo                       December 7, 2010                      
   Stratfor's World Snapshot                                                  
                                                                              
    The Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks' Survival                                
    FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP/Getty Images                                         
    WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange at the United Nations office in Geneva   
    on Nov. 5                                                                 
                                                                              
   The Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks' Survival                                 
                                                                              
    December 7, 2010 1646 GMT                                                 
    The arrest of the WikiLeaks founder raises questions about the            
    organization's ability to survive, but the use of the Internet to leak    
    documents will persist. [more]                                            
    Russia's Intensifying Diplomatic Courtship of Europe                      
                                                                              
   Russia's Intensifying Diplomatic Courtship of Europe                       
                                                                              
    December 7, 2010 1314 GMT                                                 
    Russia is launching a diplomatic offensive meant to strengthen Moscow's   
    ties with Poland, Italy and the European Union. [more]                    
    Mexico Security Memo: Dec. 6, 2010                                        
                                                                              
   Mexico Security Memo: Dec. 6, 2010                                         
                                                                              
    December 6, 2010 2252 GMT                                                 
    The arrest in Mexico of two Guatemalans on charges of weapon smuggling    
    highlights the often-ignored arms trafficking into Mexico from elsewhere  
    in Latin America. (With STRATFOR interactive map) [more]                  
    A Re-emerging Sweden Sets Its Sights on Eastern Europe                    
                                                                              
   A Re-emerging Sweden Sets Its Sights on Eastern Europe                     
                                                                              
    December 6, 2010 2215 GMT                                                 
    For the first time in more than a year, Sweden is attempting to pursue    
    its foreign policy objectives. A number of developments indicate it may   
    be trying to assert itself farther into Eastern Europe. [more]            
                                                                              
    More Analysis &gt;&gt;                                                          
                                                                              
   Situation Reports                                                          
                                                                              
   Iran: Rift Within Ahmadinejad's Government - Former Diplomat               
                                                                              
    December 7, 2010 1653 GMT                                                 
    During a meeting at France's Center of Political and Foreign Affairs,     
    Mohammed Reza Heydari, a former Iranian diplomat who defected to Norway   
    in February 2010, commented on a rift within the... [more]                
                                                                              
   Iran: North Korean Technicians Seen At Tehran Airport - Former Diplomat    
                                                                              
    December 7, 2010 1653 GMT                                                 
                                                                              
   U.S.: Increased Access To Australian Military Bases Sought                 
                                                                              
    December 7, 2010 1651 GMT                                                 
                                                                              
   Indonesia: Maritime Security Budget To Increase                            
                                                                              
    December 7, 2010 1631 GMT                                                 
    More Situation Reports &gt;&gt;                                                 
                                                                              
   Weekly Intelligence Reports                                                
                                                                              
    Geopolitical Journey, Part 8: Returning Home                              
                                                                              
   Geopolitical Journey, Part 8: Returning Home                               
                                                                              
    December 7, 2010 0956 GMT                                                 
    Simply put, there are fewer risks in Texas than in Central Europe. Part   
    eight in a series. [more]                                                 
    Geopolitical Journey, Part 7: Poland                                      
                                                                              
   Geopolitical Journey, Part 7: Poland                                       
                                                                              
    December 3, 2010 1227 GMT                                                 
    Attacks on Nuclear Scientists in Tehran                                   
                                                                              
   Attacks on Nuclear Scientists in Tehran                                    
                                                                              
    December 1, 2010 2354 GMT                                                 
    Geopolitical Journey, Part 6: Ukraine                                     
                                                                              
   Geopolitical Journey, Part 6: Ukraine                                      
                                                                              
    November 30, 2010 0955 GMT                                                
    Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                                
    (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 18:12:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1666617_stratfor-s-world-snapshot-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>noreply@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1667397</id>
    <title>CHINA/CSM- Suicides expose workers' anguish
</title>
    <description>   Suicides expose workers' anguish
   Foxconn tragedies a sign of wider problems
   Ng Tze-wei
   May 28, 2010    
   http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/SCMP/menuitem.2af62ecb329d3d7733492d9253a0a0a0/?vgnextoid=dfb7c82376ad8210VgnVCM100000360a0a0aRCRD&amp;ss=China&amp;s=News

   Foxconn was hit by another suicide attempt in Shenzhen yesterday - the
   13th this year, 10 of which have resulted in deaths - as the company's
   Taiwanese boss Terry Gou flew back to the city again, less than 24 hours
   after leaving it.

   A 25-year-old worker slit his wrists early yesterday morning, a few hours
   after a fellow worker jumped to his death, Shenzhen police said. The
   worker, who recovered after hospital treatment, had joined Foxconn only
   two months ago, Xinhua reported.

   Emergency measures put together by Gou and his management team to battle
   the crisis have failed to work, as demonstrated by the two most recent
   suicide attempts.

   In the past few months police have visited the sprawling Longhua plant, as
   have government officials, psychologists and even sutra-chanting monks.
   But workers are still committing suicide.

   Gou says it is a social problem, while some accuse the authorities of
   reacting weakly and late. Foxconn workers have complained to media about
   the military-style corporate culture and inhumane work arrangements -
   which experts have described as "legal but unreasonable".

   Others say the Foxconn tragedies have exposed the limits of relying on
   legislation to protect workers and that more independent unions and
   non-governmental organisations are also needed. The government passed the
   controversial labour contract law three years ago, vowing that it would
   protect workers' rights.

   The latest report by Hong Kong-based Students and Scholars Against
   Corporate Misbehaviour said the Taiwanese manufacturer was paying some
   workers Shenzhen's minimum wage of 900 yuan (HK$1,026) a month, making it
   impossible for them to turn down overtime.

   Professor Wang Xiangqian, from the China Institute of Industrial
   Relations, said Foxconn exposed the urgent need for "stronger and more
   independent workers' unions" - independent from the employer, not from the
   Communist Party, because all workers' unions on the mainland are
   party-affiliated.

   "Our economic development has reached a point where there must be an
   effective bargaining mechanism between the labourers and the employers,
   and that means a strong and independent workers' union," Wang said.
   "Without this legal weapon, the workers could only turn to other ways to
   express themselves, which could then bring instability to society."

   The authorities have found no evidence of illegal practices at Foxconn's
   two Shenzhen plants, which employ more than 400,000 people, even though
   reports have emerged of people working up to 100 hours of overtime a
   month, when the legal maximum is 36.

   According to media reports, Foxconn workers can toil for up to 12 hours
   without talking to anyone, follow strict rules on how long to spend on
   meals and toilet breaks, are subject to constant surveillance of their
   operations and have to work rapidly on repetitive tasks, making them feel
   like machines.

   "A strong and independent worker's union could have tabled such
   unreasonable work conditions for negotiations with the employer," Wang
   said.

   The union at Foxconn was only set up at the end of 2006 and is
   understaffed compared with other unions on the mainland, with just 27
   full-time staff.

   Others are less optimistic about the prospect of more independent unions
   and believe that giving NGOs greater freedom to work is a more viable
   option.

   The authorities are particularly cautious about the mobilising and
   advocacy of workers' rights, but NGOs that cater to migrant workers also
   carry out skills training and run recreational activities and services for
   migrant workers' families, NGO practitioners say.

   Shenzhen's Spring Breeze Labour Dispute Service Centre provides legal aid
   as well as leisure projects, such as maintaining a library and organising
   trips to the countryside.

   Founder Zhang Zhiru said fulfilling the non-material needs of workers was
   crucial. "Migrant workers work long hours and are paid very little. Apart
   from work and overtime, they live a spiritually very deprived life," he
   said.

   Foxconn, the biggest manufacturer in Shenzhen, is known as an independent
   kingdom, with strong government backing and is off-limits to reporters and
   external intervention. Zhang said it was a common understanding among NGOs
   in the region that direct work at Foxconn was impossible, but, since the
   suicides, the NGOs had decided they could do more to address the
   psychological needs of young migrant workers.

   "Foxconn has a large team of psychological consultants at their work plant
   too. However, such consultants would only prove useful if the workers are
   not already emotionally disturbed to the point where they close themselves
   up, like many of the ones who committed suicide," Zhang said.

   Workers feeling alienated in a profit-driven world is a century-old
   concept - first put forward by Karl Marx as a major flaw of capitalism.
   However, mainland migrant workers face double alienation because they are
   tackling industrialisation at unprecedented speed but find it impossible
   to settle down in the cities.

   Liu Kaiming of the Institute of Contemporary Observation in Shenzhen said:
   "Chinese migrant workers are faced with particular anxiety mainly because
   of our political system: they are on one hand prone to becoming the losers
   in both the processes of industrialisation and urbanisation.

   "On the other hand, they are stripped of means to organise themselves,
   whether through workers' unions, NGOs or others."

   A professor of sociology at Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Pun Ngai,
   and eight mainland professors issued an open letter last week calling for
   the scrapping of the hukou residential permit system - which prevents
   migrant workers from settling in cities. They said this would remove the
   pay differences that confront migrant workers, along with other policy and
   social discrimination.

   "Employers must raise wages, but above all the hukou system must be
   abolished," Pun said. "Once workers are allowed to live in the cities
   long-term, they would naturally demand higher salaries, and they would no
   longer need to live in eight-person-to-a-room dormitories."

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1667397_china-csm-suicides-expose-workers-anguish-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>os@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1671459</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - military intervention in Syria, post withdrawal status of
 forces
</title>
    <description>   A few points I wanted to highlight from meetings today --

   I spent most of the afternoon at the Pentagon with the USAF strategic
   studies group - guys who spend their time trying to understand and explain
   to the USAF chief the big picture in areas where they're operating in. It
   was just myself and four other guys at the Lieutenant Colonel level,
   including one French and one British representative who are liaising with
   the US currently out of DC.

   They wanted to grill me on the strategic picture on Syria, so after that I
   got to grill them on the military picture. There is still a very low level
   of understanding of what is actually at stake in Syria, what's the
   strategic interest there, the Turkish role, the Iranian role, etc. After a
   couple hours of talking, they said without saying that SOF teams
   (presumably from US, UK, France, Jordan, Turkey) are already on the ground
   focused on recce missions and training opposition forces. One Air Force
   intel guy (US) said very carefully that there isn't much of a Free Syrian
   Army to train right now anyway, but all the operations being done now are
   being done out of 'prudence.'  The way it was put to me was, 'look at this
   way - the level of information known on Syrian OrBat this month is the
   best it's been since 2001.'  They have been told to prepare contingencies
   and be ready to act within 2-3 months, but they still stress that this is
   all being done as contingency planning, not as a move toward escalation.

   I kept pressing on the question of what these SOF teams would be working
   toward, and whether this would lead to an eventual air camapign to give a
   Syrian rebel group cover. They pretty quickly distanced themselves from
   that idea, saying that the idea 'hypothetically' is to commit guerrilla
   attacks, assassination campaigns, try to break the back of the Alawite
   forces, elicit collapse from within. There wouldn't be a need for air
   cover, and they wouldn't expect these Syrian rebels to be marching in
   columns anyway.

   They emphasized how the air campaign in Syria makes Libya look like a
   piece of cake.  Syrian air defenses are a lot more robust and are much
   denser, esp around Damascus and on the borders with Israel, Turkey. THey
   are most worried about mobile air defenses, particularly the SA-17s that
   they've been getting recently.  It's still a doable mission, it's just not
   an easy one.

   The main base they would use is Cyprus, hands down. Brits and FRench would
   fly out of there. They kept stressing how much is stored at Cyprus and how
   much recce comes out of there. The group was split on whether Turkey would
   be involved, but said Turkey would be pretty critical to the mission to
   base stuff out of there. EVen if Turkey had a poltiical problem with
   Cyprus, they said there is no way the Brits and the FRench wouldn't use
   Cyprus as their main air force base. Air Force Intel guy seems pretty
   convinced that the Turks won't participate (he seemed pretty pissed at
   them.)

   There still seems to be a lot of confusion over what a military
   intervention involving an air campaign would be designed to achieve.   It
   isn't clear cut for them geographically like in Libya, and you can't just
   create an NFZ over Homs, Hama region. This would entail a countrywide SEAD
   campaign lasting the duration of the war.  They dont believe air
   intervention would happen unless there was enough media attention on a
   massacre, like the Ghadafi move against Benghazi. They think the US would
   have a high tolerance for killings as long as it doesn't reach that very
   public stage.  Theyre also questiioning the skills of the Syrian forces
   that are operating the country's air defenses currently and how
   signfiicant the Iranian presence is there. Air Force Intel guy is most
   obsessed with the challenge of taking out Syria's ballistic missile
   capabilities and chem weapons.  With Israel rgiht there and the regime
   facing an existential crisis, he sees that as a major complication to any
   military intervention.

   The post 2011 SOFA with Iraq is still being negotiated. These guys were
   hoping that during Biden's visit that he would announce a deal with
   Maliki, but no such luck.  They are gambling ont he idea that the Iraqis
   remember the iran-iraq war and that maliki is not going to want to face
   the threat of Iranian jets entering Iraqi air space.  THey say that most
   US fighter jets are already out of Iraq and transferred to Kuwait. They
   explained that's the beauty of the air force, the base in Kuwait is just a
   hop, skip and jump away from their bases in Europe, ie. very easy to
   rapidly build up when they need to.  They don't seem concerned about the
   US ability to restructure its forces to send a message to Iran. They gave
   the example of the USS Enterprise that was supposed to be out of
   commission already and got extended another couple years to send to the
   gulf. WHen the US withdraws, we'll have at least 2 carriers in the gulf
   out of centcom and one carrier in the Med out of EuCom. I asked if the
   build-up in Kuwait and the carrier deployments are going to be enough to
   send a message to Iran that the US isn't going anywhere. They responded
   that Iran will get the message if they read the Centcom Web Site. STarting
   Jan. 1 expect them to be publishing all over the place where the US is
   building up.

   Another concern they have about an operation in Syria is whether Iran
   could impede operations out of Balad air force base in Iraq.

   The French representative was of hte opinion that Syria won't be a
   libya-type situation in that France would be gung-ho about going in. Not
   in an election year. The UK rep also emphasized UK reluctance but said
   that the renegotiation of the EU treaty undermines the UK role and that UK
   would be looking for ways to reassert itself on the continent ( i dont
   really think a syria campaign is the way to do that.) UK guy mentioned as
   an aside that the air force base commander at Cyprus got switched out from
   a maintenance guy to a guy that flew Raptors, ie someone that understands
   what it means to start dropping bombs. He joked that it was probably a
   coincidence.

   Prior to that, I had a meeting with an incoming Kuwaiti diplomat (will be
   coded as KU301.) His father was high up in the regime, always by the
   CP's/PM's side. The diplo himself still seems to be getting his feet wet
   in DC (the new team just arrived less than 2 weeks ago,) but he made
   pretty clear that Kuwait was opening the door to allowing US to build up
   forces as needed.  THey already have a significant presence there, and a
   lot of them will be on 90-day rotations. He also said that the SOFA that
   the US signs with Baghdad at the last minute will be worded in such a way
   that even allowing one trainer in the country can be construed to mean
   what the US wants in terms of keeping forces in Iraq. Overall, I didnt get
   the impression from him that Kuwait is freaked out about the US leaving. 
   Everyhting is just getting rearranged.  The Kuwaitis used to be much
   better at managing their relations with Iran, but ever since that spy ring
   story came out  a year ago, it's been bad.  He doesn't think Iran has
   significant covert capabililiteis in the GCC states, though they are
   trying. Iranian activity is mostly propaganda focused. He said that while
   KSA and Bahrain they can deal with it as needed and black out the media,
   Kuwait is a lot more open and thus provides Iran with more oppotunity to
   shape perceptions (he used to work in inforamtion unit in Kuwait.) He says
   there is a sig number of kuwaitis that listen to Iranian media like Al
   Alam especially.

   On the Kuwaiti political scene - the government is having a harder time
   dealing with a more emboldened opposition, but the opposition is still
   extremely divided, esp among the Islamists. The MPs now all have to go
   back to their tribes to rally support for the elections to take place in
   Feb. Oftentimes an MP in Kuwait city will find out that he has lost
   support back home with the tribe, and so a lot of moeny is handed out.The
   govt is hoping that witha  clean slate they can quiet the opposition down.
   A good way of managing the opposition he said is to refer cases to the
   courts, where they can linger forever. good way for the govt to buy time. 
   He doesnt believe the Arab League will take significant action against
   Syria - no one is interested in military intervention. they just say it to
   threaten it.
</description>
    <date>2011-12-07 00:49:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 07:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1671459_insight-military-intervention-in-syria-post-withdrawal.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1672400</id>
    <title>Pipelines/Nuclear 
</title>
    <description>9</description>
    <date>2009-07-13 15:08:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-07 05:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1672400_pipelines-nuclear-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>catherine.durbin@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/125/125104_Areva Reactors.doc</path><size>76288</size><md5></md5><sha1>f70801c21ceed5440e0a682a40b00e5d67825d04</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/125/125105_Oil Pipelines.xls</path><size>34816</size><md5></md5><sha1>cabf7b1697374b4f9aa8670d777421c926ddc20c</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/125/125106_Nuclear Project.xls</path><size>69632</size><md5></md5><sha1>d865d3e546a4fedd814ee39ef5ad412c4f0b6ef7</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/125/125107_Natural Gas Pipelines.xls</path><size>109568</size><md5></md5><sha1>95392f62ead32a1c3e19ff1a4092998a8f66ef1a</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/125/125108_Oil Pipelines.doc</path><size>50688</size><md5></md5><sha1>9ac23eebdba2adeaf4157860bd1b8889566e7d54</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/125/125109_List of Reactors.doc</path><size>78848</size><md5></md5><sha1>47f08a8128d72d41258f0ad230ce9027d73f4997</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1672470</id>
    <title>Re: ANALYSIS FOR COMMENT - BULGARIA/RUSSIA: Anti-Russian Bulgaria?
 Don't get your hopes up!
</title>
    <description>   nice.

     Newly elected Prime Minister of Bulgaria, Boyko Borisov, has in a letter
     on July 13 asked the Economy and Energy Minister Petar Dimitrov to
     temporarily freeze the construction of the Belene nuclear power plant
     and the development of the South Stream natural gas pipeline project.
     Borisov claimed in the letter that the Bulgarian state owned companies
     involved in the two projects were not taking into account the economic
     crisis in their operations, hinting at financial malfeasance. Both the
     Belene nuclear power plant and the South Stream project are being
     developed in cooperation with Russian state owned enterprises,
     Atomstroyexport and Gazprom respectively.

     Russian influence in Bulgaria has always been considered as robust and
     the government of outgoing prime minister Sergei Stanishev did nothing
     to dispel that notion, despite Sofia's entry into the EU in 2007 under
     his leadership and the fact that it had been a member of NATO since
     2004. Bulgaria's relatively eager participation in the South Stream
     project - Russian alternative to the EU's Nabucco project - has been
     lauded as an example of the close collaboration between Moscow and Sofia
     and proof of Bulgaria's "Trojan Horse" status within the Western
     Alliance.

     Borisov's actions, one of his first as incoming prime minister, to
     freeze progress on the two major Russian projects within Bulgaria seem
     to suggest that he will stick to his campaign promise to play by "EU
     rules" on energy policy and reverse his opponent's policies of cozying
     up to Russia. He also campaigned that he would not be beholden to Moscow
     and that he would treat Russia just like any other power, thus ending
     the special relationship enjoyed by Sofia and Moscow under Stanishev's
     government.

     However, the warm relations between Bulgaria and Russia are not a modern
     phenomenon, nor are they beholden to any particular government's
     policies. The relationship is rooted in geopolitics and has withstood
     the test of time from the 19th Century until today.

     Bulgaria owes its independence from the Ottoman Empire in late 19th
     Century to Russia which fought the Russo-Turkish War with the intent of
     creating a "Greater Bulgaria" with sea access in both the Black Sea and
     the Aegean Sea. The Russian plan for an enlarged Bulgaria, which would
     have given Russia friendly ports in the Mediterranean, backfired by
     alarming Western powers who were forced to intervene, albeit
     diplomatically, during the 1878 Berlin Congress and thus greatly reduced
     Bulgaria's territory.

     Russia and Bulgaria continued to have a strong relationship throughout
     the 20th Century despite Bulgaria's decision to side with the Central
     Powers in the First World War and subsequently the Axis in the Second.
     As an example of its strong link to Moscow, Bulgaria refused to join the
     attack against the Soviet Union despite being officially allied with
     Nazi Germany. The subsequent communist period in Bulgaria, while not
     remembered with nostalgia, does not elicit the same kind of knee jerk
     anti-Russian feelings as in much the rest of Central and Eastern Europe.
     Bulgaria was a loyal member of the Soviet Bloc with no uprisings against
     Moscow's regional hegemony.

     The oft stated reason for Bulgaria's affinity towards Russia are the
     cultural and religious ties between the two countries and these
     certainly work well to grease the wheels of the relationship.  However,
     in reality, Bulgaria's interests are rooted in its geopolitical
     circumstances. Surrounded by entities who have historically been
     stronger and sometimes outright aggressive towards it -- namely
     Turkey/Ottoman Empire to the South, Romania to the north and
     Yugoslavia/Serbia to the West, Bulgaria has often relied on Russia to
     play the role of its protector and champion in the region.  Meanwhile,
     from the Russian perspective, Bulgaria affords it a foothold in the
     Balkans, much more reliable than the often too independently minded
     Serbia and Romania, both of which had plans of their own to become
     regional hegemons. 

     Borisov's initial moves against Russian projects in Bulgaria should
     therefore not be taken to signal a fundamental shift in Bulgaria's
     relations with Russia. Borisov's government may temper some of the overt
     signs of this strong relationship, but his move to freeze progress on
     South Stream and the Belene power plant is more likely about rooting out
     his predecessor's control of those lucrative projects than about
     fundamentally moving Bulgaria away from Russia.  Once Borisov feels that
     he and his power base are sufficiently in control of all aspects of the
     Sofia-Moscow relationship, it is very likely that Bulgaria will continue
     to be one of Russia's strongest allies within the EU and NATO.
</description>
    <date>2009-07-13 22:01:08</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1672470_re-analysis-for-comment-bulgaria-russia-anti-russian.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>nathan.hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1672788</id>
    <title>Re: ANALYSIS FOR COMMENT - BULGARIA/RUSSIA: Anti-Russian Bulgaria?
 Don't get your hopes up!
</title>
    <description>   I don't see why it would. Bulgaria certainly loves being the center of
   attention and in the perfect scenario both South Stream and Nabucco would
   happen and both go through Bulgaria. So if Turkey decides to do Nabucco,
   Bulgaria is quite happy with that, as long as it is still the center of
   both projects.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, July 13, 2009 3:30:12 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re: ANALYSIS FOR COMMENT - BULGARIA/RUSSIA: Anti-Russian
   Bulgaria? Don't get your hopes up!

   the timing of this statement is pretty interesting. same day that turkey
   signs nabucco. even if nabucco is for show, does bulgaria feel it has more
   options with TUrkey playing the field?
   On Jul 13, 2009, at 3:02 PM, Karen Hooper wrote:

     Marko Papic wrote:

     I had to cut out a LOT of info we have on Borisov simply because I am
     not sure which bits could get us into legal trouble. Nonetheless, a lot
     of that stuff is also weedy, so I think a broader geopolitical
     discussion is not out of place. 

     Newly elected Prime Minister of Bulgaria, Boyko Borisov, has in a letter
     on July 13 asked the Economy and Energy Minister Petar Dimitrov to
     temporarily freeze the construction of the Belene nuclear power plant
     and the development of the South Stream natural gas pipeline project.
     Borisov claimed in the letter that the Bulgarian state owned companies
     involved in the two projects were not taking into account the economic
     crisis in their operations, hinting at financial malfeasance. Both the
     Belene nuclear power plant and the South Stream project are being
     developed in cooperation with Russian state owned enterprises,
     Atomstroyexport and Gazprom respectively. 

     Russian influence in Bulgaria has always been considered as robust and
     the government of outgoing prime minister Sergei Stanishev did nothing
     to dispel that notion, despite Sofiaa**s entry into the EU in 2007 under
     his leadership and the fact that it had been a member of NATO since
     2004 agree that it might be a good idea to explain the motivation to do
     this while still remaining firmly in russia's pocket. Bulgariaa**s
     relatively eager participation in the South Stream project a** Russian
     alternative to the EUa**s Nabucco project a** has been lauded as an
     example of the close collaboration between Moscow and Sofia and proof of
     Bulgariaa**s a**Trojan Horsea** status within the Western Alliance.

     Borisova**s actions, one of his first as incoming prime minister, to
     freeze progress on the two major Russian projects within Bulgaria seem
     to suggest that he will stick to his campaign promise to play by a**EU
     rulesa** on energy policy and reverse his opponenta**s policies of
     cozying up to Russia. He also campaigned on the idea that that he would
     not be beholden to Moscow and that he would treat Russia just like any
     other power, thus ending the special relationship enjoyed by Sofia and
     Moscow under Stanisheva**s government. 

     However, the warm relations between Bulgaria and Russia are not a modern
     phenomenon, nor are they beholden to any particular governmenta**s
     policies. The relationship is rooted in geopolitics and has withstood
     the test of time from the 19thCentury until today. 

     Bulgaria owes its independence from the Ottoman Empire in late
     19th Century to Russia which fought the Russo-Turkish War with the
     intent of creating a a**Greater Bulgariaa** with sea access in both the
     Black Sea and the Aegean Sea. The Russian plan for an enlarged Bulgaria,
     which would have given Russia friendly ports in the Mediterranean,
     backfired by alarming Western powers who were forced to intervene,
     albeit diplomatically, during the 1878 Berlin Congress and thus greatly
     reduced Bulgariaa**s territory.

     Russia and Bulgaria continued to have a strong relationship throughout
     the 20th Century despite Bulgariaa**s decision to side with the Central
     Powers in the First World War and subsequently the Axis in the Second.
     As an example of its strong link to Moscow, Bulgaria refused to join the
     attack against the Soviet Union despite being officially allied with
     Nazi Germany. The subsequent communist period in Bulgaria, while not
     remembered with nostalgia, does not elicit the same kind of knee jerk
     anti-Russian feelings as in much the rest of Central and Eastern Europe.
     Bulgaria was a loyal member of the Soviet Bloc with no uprisings against
     Moscowa**s regional hegemony. 

     The oft stated reason for Bulgariaa**s affinity towards Russia are the
     cultural and religious ties between the two countries and these
     certainly work well to grease the wheels of the relationship.  However,
     in reality, Bulgariaa**s interests are rooted in its geopolitical
     circumstances. Surrounded by entities who have historically been
     stronger and sometimes outright aggressive towards it -- namely
     Turkey/Ottoman Empire to the South, Romania to the north and
     Yugoslavia/Serbia to the West, Bulgaria has often relied on Russia to
     play the role of its protector and champion in the region.  i would move
     this paragraph up to above where you give examples of russia being a
     protector Meanwhile, from the Russian perspective, Bulgaria affords it a
     foothold in the Balkans, much more reliable than the often too
     independently minded Serbia and Romania, both of which had plans of
     their own to become regional hegemons.  there must be some more concrete
     ties between Bulgaria to Moscow, particularly with Stanishev's close
     ties, Moscow must have a great deal in the way of economic levers. if
     so, i owuld include that as evidence for why Borisov cannot possibly be
     actually pulling away from Russia. Furthermore, Russia is in no mood to
     have a satellite drift away, and you might want to piont out that even
     if he were trying, the Russians would leverage much more than a history
     of protectorship to bring bulgaria back into line. 

     Borisova**s initial moves against Russian projects in Bulgaria should
     therefore not be taken to signal a fundamental shift in Bulgariaa**s
     relations with Russia. Borisova**s government may temper some of the
     overt signs of this strong relationship, but his move to freeze progress
     on South Stream and the Belene power plant is more likely about rooting
     out his predecessora**s control of those lucrative projects than about
     fundamentally moving Bulgaria away from Russia.  Once Borisov feels that
     he and his power base are sufficiently in control of all aspects of the
     Sofia-Moscow relationship, it is very likely that Bulgaria will continue
     to be one of Russia's strongest allies within the EU and NATO.
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1672788_re-analysis-for-comment-bulgaria-russia-anti-russian.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1673644</id>
    <title>Re: Russian spy ring - Update - Russian double agent 'helped crack'
 US spy ring
</title>
    <description>   it's always been possible there were other triggers.  Though the
   coincidence of all these events is still weird. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Anya Alfano" &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "TACTICAL" &lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, November 11, 2010 8:15:35 AM
   Subject: Russian spy ring - Update - Russian double agent 'helped crack'
   US spy ring

   Filling in a few blanks of the story--if true, doesn't sound like Comrade
   J was actually a trigger, or possibly even involved at all. 

   -------- Original Message --------

    Subject: [OS] US/RUSSIA - Russian double agent 'helped crack' US spy ring 
       Date: Thu, 11 Nov 2010 01:09:16 -0600 (CST)                            
       From: Zac Colvin &lt;zac.colvin@stratfor.com&gt;                             
   Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                    
         To: OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                        

   Kommersant not in English
   Russian double agent 'helped crack' US spy ring
   http://sg.news.yahoo.com/afp/20101111/twl-russia-us-spy-diplomacy-7e07afd.html
   AFP - 54 minutes ago

   MOSCOW (AFP) - A-c-A*A* A Russian spy ring broken by the United States
   this summer was detected with the help of a Russian intelligence agent
   whose daughter lives in the United States, the Kommersant daily reported
   Thursday.

   The respected business daily identified the Russian accomplice as
   Shcherbakov, a colonel with the Russian foreign intelligence service.

   It said Shcherbakov fled Russia for the United States three days prior to
   Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's June visit to Washington.

   The paper cited sources as saying that Shcherbakov's son also quit his
   post with the Russian drug control agency and fled to the United States
   shortly before Washington revealed the spy ring that month.

   His daughter has long lived in the United States, the paper said, without
   providing further details.

   "It seems odd that no one bothered to check why a person of that rank has
   a daughter living in the United States," Kommersant quoted an unnamed
   intelligence source as saying.

   Shcherbakov himself turned down an important promotion last year,
   suggesting that he had already been working with Washington, the paper
   said.

   The group of 10 spies, many of whom had been working for years undercover
   in the United States as sleeper agents, returned to Russia in a July spy
   swap that saw Moscow send four Russian convicts to the West.

   Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who served as a Soviet foreign intelligence
   agent in East Germany, this summer denounced the then-unnamed Russian
   collaborator as someone whose life will end "with boozing or drugs,"
   Kommersant said.

   The Russian foreign intelligence agency was not immediately available for
   comment.

   --
   Zac Colvin

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   Office: +1 512-279-9479
   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1673644_re-russian-spy-ring-update-russian-double-agent-helped-crack.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1674165</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat
</title>
    <description>   Main problem is that Der Spiegel is just that good, they've at least
   touched on most of what I would want to say about it.  The main thing here
   is how the politics of a terror threat/alert coincide with the reality of
   the threat itself. 

   We saw that Germany was fairly relaxed bout the earlier threat in Europe
   released by the US.  I'm not sure if that was the same as the info that
   the FBI passed over about this shia group, Saif (I don't know anything
   about them).  But something changed, as we noted last week in their
   interpretation.  That seems to go down to this virtual walk-in.  The one
   thing I was left confused about is whether BKA had ever been in contact
   with this source before.  It sounds like he cold called them.  It's common
   knowledge that walk-ins, rather than recruits, are nearly always the best
   sources.  But at the same time, they are very suspicious as double
   agents.  If this was a US source they would be freaking the fuck out after
   having Al-Balawi turn on them.  The germans seem to have cooler heads, but
   they will be working 24/7 to verify the source (let me make another plug
   for John Lecarre's A Most Wanted Man here, most of his career was in
   Germany). 

   They've clearly got enough corroborating information that they consider
   this a real threat.  But politically they are faced with the universal
   'damned if you do, damned if you don't' alert problem.  If the Interior
   ministry doesn't say something, they will be liable if an attack occurs. 
   Look at the constant press over information on the warning intelligence
   for Mumbai.  As we've said before, simply issuing the warning may help to
   deter the attackers. 

   The real important bit here, is that it seems the germans have fairly good
   intelligence.  While this attack is still not happening tomorrow, they
   have a lot of details about what might be in the works, rather than a
   single-source intercept that indicates some vague threat.  It seems
   they've increased security pretty well at the Bundestag, and want to add
   to the presence at any possible target.  This is where we seem them
   scrambling, and where their intelligence holes are. 

   The task now for the germans is to verify this source.  Maybe even pick
   him up and put him on ice somewhere (Fred/Stick?), not in GErmany but in
   Pakistan/Afghanistan.  That will require some cooperation with either/both
   the Americans and Pakistanis.  They also need to verify all the bio
   information they have on these 4-6 guys trying to get into germany and
   watch travelers very carefully.  The germans seem to be very good at
   surveilling these threats within Germany, so their best luck may come when
   one of the guys overseas contacts a local already under surveillance. 

   At minimum, this could be a pretty interesting tearline this week.  Both
   the walk-in issues and the CIA/FBI liaison conflicts that I havne't gotten
   into here. 
   On 11/22/10 10:34 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

     Any thoughts on where you guys are thinking of going with this?

     Der Spiegel article is indeed interesting.

     On 11/22/10 9:28 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       Great report from Der Spiegel (thanks Mikey).  I suggest anyone
       interested to read the whole thing.  They ask the right questions, and
       while not as much detail as I hoped, give us a much better
       understanding on the threat in Germany. 

       The BKA (germany's FBI) must be extremely busy verifying the details
       of this virtual walk-in.  It obviously caused the germans to shit
       their pants.  But the real questions are buried in the article---how
       real was this plot, how real is the source, is the source just trying
       to get back to the land of brezeln and bier? Trying to double-cross
       them somehow?

       Also note the tip off from the FBI (cue fred), not the usual CIA
       liaison with BND. 

       For Eurasia, there's a lot in here on the internal politics of the
       interior minister position, and the relation between state and federal
       government. 

       On 11/22/10 8:55 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

         -------- Original Message --------

          Subject: [OS] GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat 
             Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 08:38:21 -0600                          
             From: Graham Smith &lt;graham.smith@stratfor.com&gt;                 
         Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                            
               To: os@stratfor.com                                          

          11/22/2010 11:38 AM
         Fears of a Mumbai Redux
         The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat

         http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,730377,00.html
         By Matthias Bartsch, Yassin Musharbash and Holger Stark

         Germany is currently in a state of high alert. Security officials
         are warning that they have concrete information pointing to a
         possible terror attack on the federal parliament building in Berlin,
         a massively popular tourist attraction. The days of Interior
         Minister Thomas de Maiziere's reserved stances in dealing with such
         warnings appear to be over.

         The call came from abroad, and the man speaking hurriedly on the
         other end of the line sounded as if he feared for his life. He
         wanted out, he told the officers of the German Federal Criminal
         Police Office (BKA) -- out of the terrorist scene. He wanted to come
         back to Germany, back to his family. Then he asked if German
         officials could help him.

         Right now, they're trying to do just that. The BKA is pursuing the
         case under the codename "Nova." The apparently remorseful man could
         be an important possible whistleblower from a dangerous region of
         the globe. In fact, he is also the most recent reason why German
         Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere put the entire country in a
         state of fright on Wednesday.

         During a hastily called press conference that day, de Maiziere
         stated that Germany faced the threat of terrorist attacks that might
         be launched against the country at some point in November. As he put
         it, Germany is "presently dealing with a new situation."
         Just two days earlier, the source had called for the third time in
         just a short period and provided more information. He told officials
         that a small group of terrorists wanted to conduct a raid on the
         Reichstag building in Berlin, which houses the federal parliament,
         and that that was only one of the targets included in their attack
         plans.

         Germany on High Alert

         Since then, Germany has been in a state of high alert. The Reichstag
         is surrounded with barricades and its popular cupola tourist
         attraction temporarily closed to visitors. Police armed with
         submachine guns are patrolling major railway stations and airports.
         And vacations have been called off for officials at the country's
         security agencies. Wherever they have cause for doing so, the
         authorities are secretly monitoring communications, conducting
         surveillance operations and launching undercover investigations. At
         the moment, investigators seem to be at a loss; their modus
         operandi: "We'll prod the shrubs and see if we can flush out any
         birds."

         "There is cause for worry, but no cause for hysteria," de Maiziere
         assured his listeners. But while he has never been much of an
         agitator, his colleagues at the state level have described the
         situation in much more drastic terms. Uwe Schu:nemann, for example,
         who has been the interior minister of the northwestern state of
         Lower Saxony since 2003, stated that he had "never experienced a
         heightened security situation like this one." And Berlin Senator for
         the Interior Ehrhart Ko:rting, whose position is tantamount to that
         of a government minister in the city-state, has already even gone so
         far as to call on the inhabitants of the German capital city to
         report suspicious-looking individuals of Arab origin to the police.
         "If you suddenly see three somewhat strange-looking men who are new
         to your neighborhood, who hide their faces and who only speak
         Arabic," Ko:rting said, "you should report them to the authorities."

         Under heightened pressure, officials in Germany's 16 federal states
         are now checking to see when and where major events are scheduled to
         take place this coming week within their boundaries. And nothing
         suggested as a possible target is being discounted, no matter how
         unlikely. For example, officials in Rhineland-Palatinate warned the
         state's interior minister, Karl Peter Burch, that there was always a
         lot going on at IKEA stores on Saturdays.[WTF]

         Serenity, Scaremongering and Strategy

         Since last week, German politicians at both the state and federal
         levels have once again had to figure out how they will handle
         themselves when making warnings about terrorist attacks. They have
         had to come up with a language that can simultaneously convey both
         an alert and a sense of calm.

         This is no easy task. For one thing, this isn't the first time this
         has happened. In September 2009, for example, right before federal
         elections were held, there were concrete threats that resulted in a
         heightened security situation. But, in the end, nothing happened.
         This time around, people are wondering whether they are on the
         precipice of an emergency or whether these are once again empty
         threats.

         Still, one thing is certain: For the time being, Germany has become
         a different country -- more nervous, more anxious, more agitated.
         And Germany's domestic security policies are being put to the test.

         When Interior Minister de Maiziere assumed his office in October
         2009 in conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel's government, he aimed
         to cool down the heated sense of alarm regularly fanned out by his
         predecessors. What's more, the man who had served as Merkel's chief
         of staff in Chancellery until being moved to the role of interior
         minister in her new government, was given the task of nurturing a
         more relaxed relationship between her party, the Christian
         Democratic Union (CDU), and its new coalition partner, the
         business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP). In particular, it was
         his job to not draw out the long-standing conflict over domestic
         security policies with the Justice Ministry, which has been led
         since the 2009 election by Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, a
         member of the FDP. Indeed, Merkel feared that the quarrelsome FDP
         might try to capitalize on the issue to win over more voters, so she
         assigned de Maiziere to prevent that from happening.

         In fact, the plan was to repeat the same strategy that the CDU and
         its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), had
         used when they were in the so-called "grand coalition" with the
         center-left Social Democratic Party, between 2005 and 2009. At the
         time, they made a point of undermining the SPD by championing what
         had traditionally been the latter party's issues.

         A Game-Changer

         But now the game plan has changed. This November will drastically
         alter de Maiziere's understanding of his role in office. If he tries
         to return things to their previous state of calm, he's going to have
         a very tough time. In fact, it's much more likely that he will be a
         completely different interior minister.

         For a while now, de Maiziere's softer stance has prompted opposition
         by politicians on the right involved with domestic security issues.
         But they are now calling louder than ever for a tougher course to be
         followed. Merkel is also adjusting to the new situation and is
         reportedly happy with the way de Maiziere handled himself last week.
         Likewise, no one seems to have voiced any criticism last Thursday
         evening during a meeting of the Coalition Committee, a regular
         gathering of the parties that are part of the government.

         The almost complete lack of protest has a lot to do with where the
         alarming information is coming from. In fact, information regarding
         the supposedly imminent attacks has come from two independent
         sources. Shortly before receiving the telephone call about the
         planned attacks, BKA officials had received a cable from their
         American counterparts at the FBI, America's federal police force,
         warning of possible attacks.

         Still, what truth is there in these "security-related" pieces of
         information coming from both domestic and foreign sources? And,
         given all the discrepancies in the warning messages, just how much
         do they deserve to be trusted? Indeed, even among security officials
         themselves, there is some doubt about how legitimate these
         statements are -- and about just how acute the danger threatening
         Germany really is.

         An Attack Modelled after Mumbai[plot details in this section]
         What the caller reported was undeniably alarming. According to him,
         al-Qaida and associated groups based in Pakistan were making joint
         preparations for an attack in Germany. One idea was to remotely
         detonate a bomb using a mobile phone. Another called for a small
         group of terrorists to storm the Reichstag with guns blazing, take
         hostages and end everything in one calamitous bloodbath. Indeed, BKA
         officials learned that the latter plan had been modeled on the
         storming of luxury hotels in Mumbai, the Indian capital, almost
         exactly two years ago, in a massacre that left 175 people dead.

         According to the caller, the plan called for the terrorists to
         procure the submachine guns, automatic rifles, explosives and
         whatever else they would need to storm Germany's parliament building
         in the Balkans. He said that two men had already traveled to Germany
         six to eight weeks earlier, adding that one had the nom de guerre of
         "Abu Mohammed" and that the other one was a German of Turkish
         origin. Both apparently had roots in the Greater Berlin metropolitan
         area, were currently unemployed and living off of welfare payments
         and had immersed themselves in the anonymity provided by a major
         city -- until the time should come for their activation.

         Likewise, there were allegedly four other volunteers -- including a
         German, a Turk, a North African and another jihadist of unknown
         identity -- in the training camps run by al-Qaida and related groups
         waiting for the signal to travel to Germany. And, according to the
         telephone source, al-Qaida's plan was to attack in February or
         March.
         The only question now relates to just how credible the caller's
         statements are. He is an insider who joined up with armed groups
         several months ago and has earned a reputation as a fanatic fighter.
         But could it be that he is only trying to tell German officials the
         juiciest things possible in order to raise his own market value and
         thereby prompt them to extract him from the terror scene? Or could
         it be that al-Qaida is even planning a second spectacular coup like
         the one in December 2009, when the Americans allowed a supposedly
         top-level turncoat onto an American military base without any sort
         of pat-down, who went on to detonate his explosive vest and blow
         seven CIA officials to bits?

         A Strange Message

         A clear picture has yet to emerge. And one reason for this is also
         the fact that it was only two weeks ago that the FBI first decided
         to share information about another possible attack with German
         officials.

         In this case, even the way contact was made was unusual. Under
         normal circumstances, liaisons from the CIA station in Germany are
         the ones to communicate American warnings to their German
         counterparts. But, this time around, it was an apparently
         particularly anxious FBI that chose to directly notify the BKA.
         The FBI told the Germans about an obscure Indian group called
         "Saif," or "sword." Despite being a Shiite group, it had allegedly
         made a pact with al-Qaida, a Sunni organization, and sent five of
         its men to the Pakistani province of Waziristan for training.
         According to the FBI, two volunteers -- who were already equipped
         with visas allowing them to travel freely within the 25 European
         countries belonging to the Schengen zone -- were supposedly already
         en route to Germany and would enter the United Arab Emirates on
         Monday, Nov. 22. There, they would allegedly be provided with new
         travel documents before traveling on to Germany. One of the men is
         supposedly named "Khan," which is about as common in that part of
         the world as "Smith" is in English-speaking countries. And no firm
         conclusion had been made about their nationalities.

         The FBI agents even named the presumed masterminds behind the
         operation. A certain Mushtaq Altaf Bin-Khadri, who is in charge of
         finances and training for "Saif," allegedly dispatched the terrorist
         squad. But the FBI was not in a position to comment on the targets
         of the two men in Germany.

         One name came up time and again in the communique, and one that
         pricked the Germans' ears: Dawood Ibrahim. The 54-year-old arms
         trader is "India's most-wanted man." The US government has listed
         him as a "global terrorist" and persuaded the United Nations to
         place his name on a list of supporters of terror. Ibrahim is rumored
         to be the head of D-Company, a criminal syndicate named after
         himself, and is believed to be in charge of smuggling the suspected
         terrorists into Germany.

         Both the FBI and the BKA are attaching a lot of importance to the
         information in the FBI communique. But the intelligence services of
         the two countries -- the CIA in the United States and the BND and
         Office for the Protection of the Constitution in Germany, the
         country's foreign and domestic intelligence agencies, respectively
         -- point to internal contradictions as reasons for their skepticism.
         As they see it, for example, it is highly unlikely that a Shiite
         group would team up with Sunni terrorists, especially since a good
         part of al-Qaida propaganda vilifies Shiites. Other reasons for
         doubt include the facts that none of the intelligence agencies was
         previously familiar with an organization called "Saif," that there
         have been no previously recorded threats against Germany by Indian
         extremists, and that the whole scenario seems rather implausible.

         On the other hand, the FBI information is uncommonly concrete. In
         addition to the names of the suspects, it also provides information
         about the exact day on which they are supposed to arrive in the
         United Arab Emirates. Moreover, Ibrahim is believed to be one of the
         men behind the terror attacks in Mumbai. If he really is involved,
         that alone would be reason enough for worry.

         Abnormal Circumstances

         Under normal circumstances, a message of this kind from the United
         States would no doubt be cause for serious-minded scrutiny, but it
         would not be a cause for alarm. For example, the BKA would go
         through all recent visa applications, and federal police officers
         would take a closer look at all the people entering Germany from
         Arab states. And the intelligence services would make the rounds to
         see if any of its partners had any helpful information on the
         matter.

         Indeed, under normal circumstances, there are always a lot of these
         communiques, most of which turn out to be false alarms. But these
         are no normal circumstances. Germany is in a state of emergency.
         Other countries, such as the United States, employ a system of
         official warning levels based on color codes that change -- from
         yellow to orange, for example -- when the danger level is thought to
         increase. But, in Germany, the interior minister is the barometer:
         He consults with experts -- and then it is he who must call the
         shots.

         For the minister, a situation like this presents a dilemma. If he
         remains silent and something happens, he's a failure. If he makes
         loud warning and nothing happens, he's just a rabble-rouser trying
         to push through controversial tougher security laws. And, of course,
         the public never thanks you if everyday life continues in a normal,
         peaceful way.

         Absolute Security Remains a Pipe Dream

         When de Maiziere became Germany's interior minister, he had planned
         to lead the ministry in a level-headed way. For example, he prefers
         to use phrases such as "internal calm" rather than "internal
         security." And it was only six weeks ago that he uttered the
         sentence: "There's no cause for alarm." But, since then, the chorus
         of warning voices has only ballooned in size.

         This change in course is the combined result of everything that
         happened beforehand. It might very well turn out that the alleged
         Indian terror squad stays home and that the raid on the Reichstag
         never happens. But what will remain is a well-founded supposition
         that there is a critical mass of terrorists in the border region
         between Afghanistan and Pakistan that is thinking about launching
         attacks in Europe -- and certainly in Germany, as well.

         Raw Nerves

         Given such circumstances, there is a major sense of alarm among
         German officials. Last Thursday, just a day after de Maiziere's
         shocking press conference, the BKA issued a press release "in
         connection with the current high-risk situation." It reported that a
         piece of suspicious luggage had been discovered a day earlier in
         Windhoek, the capital of Namibia, before being loaded onto a plane
         bound for Germany. The laptop bag contained batteries, wires, a
         detonator and a clock -- in other words, all the ingredients you
         need for a potential airborne catastrophe.

         It sounded as if another terror plot had been foiled. Had there been
         a plan to blow up Air Berlin Flight 7377 en route to Munich? And had
         the authorities, yet again, discovered an explosive device at the
         last minute? In the end, all the worry was unfounded. As it turned
         out, the piece of luggage was a test device built by a company that
         designs "real test" suitcases to be used to test security measures.
         It remains unclear who checked the bag in. But the fact that the BKA
         was so quick to go into alarm mode -- and publicly so -- has been a
         communications debacle.

         Of course, these days, nobody wants to be the one that wasn't
         sufficiently circumspect, the one who took too long to speak up. No
         one wants a replay of situations like the one from the beginning of
         November, when de Maiziere didn't know for hours whether the package
         that had arrived at the Chancellery contained actual explosives or
         was just a false alarm. Now, the threshold for sounding the alarm is
         already much lower.

         Bonded by Fear

         Of course, you can never be too sure. Over the last 12 months, a
         series of attacks concocted in the Afghan-Pakistani border region
         have been foiled in the West. For example, in May, a car bomb set in
         New York's Times Square by a man with ties to the Pakistani Taliban
         failed to properly detonate. In Copenhagen, al-Qaida had made plans
         to storm the offices of the Jyllands-Posten newspaper as revenge for
         its 2005 publishing of caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad. In
         October 2009, David Headley, an American citizen with Pakistani
         roots, was arrested after having already visited the newspaper's
         offices in order to scout them out before the planned attack. Other
         targets reportedly included the subway systems of New York City and
         Washington.

         On the other hand, absolute security is a pipe dream. For example,
         British authorities had even conducted rehearsals for how to respond
         to possible attacks. But, even so, when attacks claiming 56 lives
         (including those of four attackers) did strike London, on July 7,
         2005, they were unable to prevent them. Likewise, US intelligence
         services had warned India a number of times that terrorists were
         planning attacks in Mumbai.

         The new situation in Germany has at least had one positive side
         effect: For the time being, the traditionally quarrelsome interior
         ministers from both the state and the federal levels have refrained
         from their usual bickering. Following informal talks held last
         Thursday in Hamburg, Minister Bruch of Rhineland-Palatinate noted
         that he had "never experienced such harmony within this group" that
         has apparently been bonded together by their shared fear.

         Translated from the German by Josh Ward

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

     --

     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

     Marko Papic

     Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

     STRATFOR

     700 Lavaca Street - 900

     Austin, Texas

     78701 USA

     P: + 1-512-744-4094

     marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-22 17:50:16</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1674165_re-discussion-germany-ct-the-story-behind-germany-s-terror.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1675721</id>
    <title>Re: wikileaks and second wave of financial crisis
</title>
    <description>   Who is this? Do you have a link?

   I like the way he tries to tie everything together, trying to do that is
   difficult and takes balls, so I salute him. However, I vehemently disagree
   that the state is fundamentally endangered. The EU is fraying, I will give
   him that. But what is coming up to replace it is not some dream of a 
   information based communal anarchy -- or people's court -- that I am sure
   Assange falls asleep to at night. No, in fact the fraying of the sinews
   that used to bind Europe during the Cold War has only allowed nationalism
   to creep back up in an even stronger capacity.

   The problem is that there is still a lot of anti-globalization leftist
   capacity out there, they have not been exhausted by the immediate
   post-9/11 revival of nationalism. People such as Assange (on the fringes)
   and most anti-globalization, ultra-liberal activists/academics (such as
   many of my Canadian friends/profs) feel that because they operate in such
   supranational circles, that the entire world is amenable to such
   intellectual and material existence. The problem is that they have never
   been to Oklahoma, or Afghanistan, and therefore ignore just how
   non-supranational the world really is. Just how local and very much
   national it still is.

   The problem that Assange and these new anti-globalists (anti-statists?)
   have is in replacing nationalism with something coherent, something that
   people can actually touch, feel, smell and pray to. Nationalism came in
   the late 18th early 19th Century to replace religion, in effect, in
   fulfilling a key societal role of binding un-connected people together in
   destiny. Human condition requires such a bond. It is practically universal
   to humans.

   I therefore really don't think that the nation-state, or states, are on
   the defensive. In fact, I think they are on the offensive from the 1990s,
   which were a heaven for the anti-globalists and people such as Assange.
   They are on the retreat.

   Just look at the American public reaction to the Wikileak cables. Nobody
   cares. In fact, most people are proud of the State Department diplomats
   and their ability to do the sort of cogent analysis that the cables
   reveal.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Lena Bell" &lt;lena.bell@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, November 30, 2010 9:48:20 PM
   Subject: wikileaks and second wave of financial crisis

   hi marko, this is from a great journo back home... I think it is a
   /very/ interesting piece. You might too. Looks at the second wave of the
   financial crisis (what is happening now) and the latest wikileaks as two
   processes that have come into collision... transforming the relationship
   between states, nations, information and economy.

   (he's prob reporting from europe - could possibly get in touch with him
   if you want)

   Confidential communication

    

   Rundle:
    
   As the WikiLeaks cablegate (WL-CG) revelations continue to roll out, the
   mood of defiance grows in Ireland, with calls for "default", for an
   immediate election, or for a citizens assembly coming from ever wider
   quarters. The euro has failed to lift on the market, suggesting that the
   vicious austerity package, has failed to convince. Down the road in
   Trafalgar Square, in the first snow of the year, the students are
   fighting a running battle with the cops, who are trying to kettle them
   around Nelson's column. Interpol has issued a warrant for Julian
   Assange, based on the warrant issued by the Swedish courts on r-pe
   allegations.

   The European Commission is investigating monopoly price fixing practices
   by Google, showing surprising backbone. The spotlight is on China, after
   WL-CG revelations that China had expressed the wish that Korea be
   reunified under Seoul. Now, joining revelations that the Arab world
   wants a strike on Iran, is confirmation that the US knows of official
   Saudi funding links to al-Qaeda, and that the US feels that Pakistan is
   a larger problem than Afghanistan in the propagation of terror.

   President Karzai -- dubbed inept and credulous in cables -- pardoned
   five heroin traffickers who were caught with more than 250 kilograms of
   the stuff en route to the streets of the West. The US began moves to
   charge Assange under the Espionage Act, and the Australian government is
   dutifully looking for something to charge him with too.

   In the House of Commons, the Lib-Dems are in chaos, preparing to abstain
   from a vote hiking up tuition fees after pledging to oppose it before
   the election, with talk of defections from the party. Revelations in the
   WL-CG cables that PMs Brown and Cameron unsuccessfully attempted to make
   a deal to avoid the extradition of Garry McKinnon, an autistic kid who
   hacked into unprotected US security networks, and is facing decades in
   jail under the one-way extradition treaty signed by Blair.

   The revelation has dealt another small but visible blow to the special
   relationship. And the UK "put in place" measures to shield the US during
   the Chilcot inquiry into the Iraq War. According to WL-CG. And Portugal
   has announced, in the past 15 minutes, that its banks may fail.

   Clearly something is under way, a larger shift than can be explained
   merely by the individual occurrences, substantial as they are. Two
   massive processes have come into collision -- the second wave of the
   global financial crisis, breaking strongly in Europe, hitting WikiLeaks'
   rolling wave of information storms, changing the relationship between
   state and power. The transformation of the relationship between four
   elements -- states, nations, information and economy -- has been
   categorical, and even if it recedes in the next few days (which it is
   unlikely to), it will not retreat back to the status quo.

   Something has happened, and it is worth trying to work out what, while
   it is going on.

   Taken at the broadest structural level, one could say this -- a series
   of crucial shifts going back 30 years have now come together in a manner
   that has pitched the global power system into a potential crisis of
   legitimacy. In the early 1980s, global financial transactions --
   hitherto substantially bound within states -- began to be extended
   internationally in real time, due to greater use of information
   technology as "virtual" markets, and then the only arena in which
   transactions took place.

   The Reagan and Thatcher victories detached economy from state
   politically, deregulating finance. The transition from the EEC to the
   EC/EU detached state structures from nation, translating them into a
   European super-state. The spread of the internet in the late '80s and
   '90s changed the relationship of information to state, making it
   materially impossible to regulate information flows via old means of
   censorship and control.

   With the global financial economy dictating terms to the superstates in
   the late '90s -- Glass-Steagall was repealed at the same time as the
   euro was launched -- and using the global net as both its medium, and
   domain for creation of new assets, the nations, the ethni rallied around
   increasingly crude expressions of solidarity, increasingly with a
   religious charge.

   The most brutal expression of this was 9/11, and the state responded by
   trying to regain some of the power it had since given up to information
   and economy. By now it was too late. The new culture, subjectivity and
   legitimacy of the cybersphere implicitly undermined the state. WikiLeaks
   is theorisation and operationalisation of that moment, which is an act
   of (collective) thought, and a changed material reality.

   The autonomous processes of a global economy, operating at the
   hyperspeed -- effectively light speed -- of an autonomous global
   information system, eventually came apart, and the debris rained down on
   the nations. The Greeks, the Irish, the Portuguese, maintaining a sense
   of community separated from the state were initially powerless. The
   states -- the EU and the US -- had a relationship only to the economy,
   not to the nation, and promptly bailed out the former at the cost of the
   latter, stealing their life, to pay off debt.

   At this point, with the legitimacy of state and economy at historic
   lows, the three major blows of WikiLeaks have decisively shifted the
   power relationship between information on the one hand, and
   state/economy on the other. From the other end, the nations are
   rebelling. "Peoples of Europe, rise up" the Greek Communist Party's
   slogan hung from the Acropolis chimes with WikiLeaks material and
   categorical challenge to the very fabric of state power, as expressed in
   the notion of "inviolable diplomatic communication".

   In Europe, oft dismissed as the old dead world, but really the cutting
   edge of the world-island, it will only take one crucial challenge from
   the nations -- a citizens challenge to state power in Ireland, for
   example -- to join the two up, in an equally dynamic fashion. Assange's
   announcement, in Forbes magazine, that WL may do a Wall Street document
   dump next effectively closes the circle.

   You can feel the change in the air, read it in every report. The more
   that the fused political-media-administrative elite try to write it off
   as "entertaining anecdote" while at the same time mobilising state power
   to destroy the organisation, the more they reveal that something has
   happened. The old process of leaks -- a document here and there -- only
   served to reinforce the idea that the state had an unquestionable right
   to control information, and that there could be no other way to organise
   society or create law.

   That legitimacy has had a fatal crack put it in. The whole question of
   who should know what has been put into play. There will be reversals,
   but we're used to those. As I may have mentioned, something is happening.

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1675721_re-wikileaks-and-second-wave-of-financial-crisis-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>lena.bell@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1675937</id>
    <title>Re: Info - Wiki Founder
</title>
    <description>this is a good feature piece The Age newspaper did back in May... a lot 
of people were talking about it then because so little is known about 
the man. Some of the more personal, historical background is pasted 
below after URL. My personal opinion? I think he is very intelligent but 
disenchanted and as journo writes:

In another life, Assange might have been a mathematician. He spent four 
years studying maths, mostly at Melbourne University - with stints at 
the Australian National University in Canberra - but never graduated, 
disenchanted, he says, with how many of his fellow students were 
conducting research for the US defence system. 'There are key cases 
which are just really f---ing obnoxious,'' he says.

Assange isn't paid a salary by WikiLeaks. He has investments, which he 
won't discuss. But during the 1990s he worked in computer security in 
Australia and overseas, devised software programmes - in 1997 he 
co-invented ''Rubberhose deniable encryption'', which he describes as a 
cryptographic system made for human rights workers wanting to protect 
sensitive data in the field - and also became a key figure in the free 
software movement.


http://www.theage.com.au/technology/technology-news/the-secret-life-of-wikileaks-founder-julian-assange-20100521-w1um.html

The former teenage hacker from Melbourne, whose mystique as an internet 
subversive, a resourceful loner with no fixed address, travelling 
constantly between countries with laptop and backpack, constitutes what 
you might call Assange's romantic appeal.

But then there's the flip side: a man who believes in extreme 
transparency, but evades and obfuscates when it comes to talking about 
himself in the rare interviews that he gives. In the past, at least, 
these have hardly ever been face to face.

The secretiveness extends to those close to him. One woman who speaks to 
me on the condition of total anonymity lived in the same share house in 
Melbourne as Assange for a few months in early 2007, when WikiLeaks was 
in its incubation period. The house was the hub, and it was inhabited by 
computer geeks.

There were beds everywhere, she says. There was even a bed in the 
kitchen. This woman slept on a mattress in Assange's room, and says she 
would sometimes wake up in the middle of the night to find him still 
glued to his computer. He frequently forget to eat or sleep, wrote 
mathematical formulas all over the walls and the doors, and used only 
red light bulbs in his room - on the basis that early man, if waking 
suddenly, would see only the gentle light of the campfire, and fall 
asleep again. He also went through a period of frustration that the 
human body has to be fed several times a day and experimented with 
eating just one meal every two days, in order to be more efficient. ''He 
was always extremely focused,'' she says.

Assange first visited Sweden in the 1990s - and WikiLeaks is hosted on a 
main server in Sweden, where the identities of confidential sources are 
protected by law.

This doesn't prove anything, of course - and WikiLeaks only moved its 
main server to Sweden two years ago, after the Julius Baer Bank tried to 
close down the website. Even so, I email Eva Gabrielsson, Larsson's 
widow, to ask if the two of them ever met Assange - explaining that he 
helped research a remarkable 1997 book, /Underground/, about the 
exploits of an extraordinary group of young Melbourne hackers, written 
by the Melbourne academic Suelette Dreyfus. The hackers all had monikers 
in the book: Assange is said to be the character Mendax. Assange 
convinced Dreyfus to release the book online, and according to one 
source I spoke to, there was great interest in the book in Sweden - and 
in China.

''About Julian Assange - well, why don't you ask him?'' Gabrielsson 
emails back.

It isn't the most urgent question I have for Assange, who I meet in 
early May, the day after he slips back into Melbourne, his home town. He 
arrived on a flight from Europe, via the US. Or so I understand from the 
person acting as our inbetween.

The same contact provides a Melbourne address, and instructions. ''Don't 
call a cab, find one on the street; turn off your mobile phone before 
you catch the cab and preferably, remove the batteries.''

And here he is - a tall, thin, pale figure with that remarkable white 
hair, looking very tired, and wearing creased, student-style dark 
clothes and boots, and backpack.

As we shake hands, he inclines his head slightly in a courtly, old world 
manner, at odds with his youthful, student-traveller looks. When I 
remark that there's a lot to ask him, he replies, ''That's all right - 
I'm not going to answer half of it.''

Is Assange his real name? Yes, he replies, then says it's the name in 
his passport. ''What's in a name?'' he then adds mysteriously, casting 
doubt on his first answer.

At the time of writing, his passport status was apparently back to 
normal after immigration officials at Melbourne Airport said that his 
passport was going to be cancelled on the grounds that it was too tatty.

It has been in a couple of rivers, Assange allows of the state of his 
passport. The first time, as he recalls, in December 2006, when he was 
crossing a swollen river during heavy rain in southern Tasmania, and was 
swept out to sea. He swam back in. ''My conclusion from that experience 
is that the universe doesn't give a damn about you, so it's a good thing 
you do.''

Why did he have his passport with him? He had everything he needed for 
three weeks of survival, he replies. He needed his passport for ID when 
he flew to Tasmania.

Doesn't he have a driver's licence? ''No comment.''

How true is the image of him as the enigmatic founder of WikiLeaks, 
constantly on the move, with no real place to call home? Is this really 
how he lives his life?

''Do I live my life as an enigmatic man?''

No - is it true you're constantly on the move?

''Pretty much true.''

Does he have one base he'd call home?

''I have four bases where I would go if I was sick, which is how I think 
about where home is.''

He has spent the best part of the past six months in Iceland, he says. 
And the next six months? ''It depends on which area of the world I'm 
needed most. We're an international organisation. We deal with 
international problems,'' he replies.

Assange mentions four bases, but names only two. The one in Iceland and 
another in Kenya, where he has spent a lot of time, on and off, in the 
past couple of years.

The Kroll report, released on WikiLeaks, reportedly swung the Kenyan 
presidential election in 2007.

When he's in the country, Assange lives in a compound in Nairobi with 
other foreigners, mainly members of NGOs such as Medecins Sans 
Frontieres. He originally went to Kenya in 2007 to give a lecture on 
WikiLeaks, when it was up and running. ''And ended up staying there,'' I 
suggest encouragingly.

''Mmmm.''

As a result of liking the place or â€¦

''Well, it has got extraordinary opportunities for reforms. It had a 
revolution in the 1970s. It has only been a democracy since 2004 â€¦ I was 
introduced to senior people in journalism, in human rights very quickly.''

He has travelled to Siberia. Is there a third base there?

''No comment. I wish. The bear steak is good.''

Why did he go to Georgia?

''How do you know about that?''

I read it somewhere, I reply. It was a rumour. ''Ah, a rumour,'' he says.

But he did go there? ''It's better that I don't comment on that, because 
Georgia is not such a big place.''

Living permanently in a state of exile, which can become addictive, 
means that you always have the sharp eye of the outsider, I suggest.

''The sense of perspective that interaction with multiple cultures gives 
you I find to be extremely valuable, because it allows you to see the 
structure of a country with greater clarity, and gives you a sense of 
mental independence,'' Assange replies.

"You're not swept up in the trivialities of a nation. You can 
concentrate on the serious matters. Australia is a bit of a political 
wasteland. That's OK, as long as people recognise that. As long as 
people recognise that Australia is a suburb of a country called 
Anglo-Saxon.''

Could he ever live in one place again? A brief silence. ''I don't think 
so,'' he says finally.

''I don't see myself as a computer guru,'' he remarks at one point. ''I 
live a broad intellectual life. I'm good at a lot of things, except for 
spelling.''

At one point, thinking about some of the material leaked on WikiLeaks, I 
ask Assange how he defines national security. ''We don't,'' he says 
crisply. "We're not interested in that. We're interested in justice. We 
are a supranational organisation. So we're not interested in national 
security.''

How does he justify keeping his own life as private as possible, 
considering that he believes in extreme transparency?

''I don't justify it,'' he says, with just a hint of mischievousness. 
''No one has sent us any official documents that were not published 
previously on me. Should they do so, and they meet our editorial 
criteria, we will publish them.''

Assange isn't paid a salary by WikiLeaks. He has investments, which he 
won't discuss. But during the 1990s he worked in computer security in 
Australia and overseas, devised software programmes - in 1997 he 
co-invented ''Rubberhose deniable encryption'', which he describes as a 
cryptographic system made for human rights workers wanting to protect 
sensitive data in the field - and also became a key figure in the free 
software movement.

The whole point of free software, he comments, is to ''liberate it in 
all senses''. He adds: ''It' s part of the intellectual heritage of man. 
True intellectual heritage can't be bound up in intellectual property.''

Did being arrested, and later on finding himself in a courtroom, push 
him into a completely different reality that he had never thought about 
- and eventually in a direction that eventually saw him start thinking 
along the lines of a website like WikiLeaks, that would take on the world?

''That [experience] showed me how the justice system and bureaucracy 
worked, and did not work; what its abilities were and what its 
limitations were,'' he replies. ''And justice wasn't something that came 
out of the justice system. Justice was something that you bring to the 
justice system. And if you're lucky, or skilled, and you're in a country 
that isn't too corrupt, you can do that.''

In another life, Assange might have been a mathematician. He spent four 
years studying maths, mostly at Melbourne University - with stints at 
the Australian National University in Canberra - but never graduated, 
disenchanted, he says, with how many of his fellow students were 
conducting research for the US defence system.

''There are key cases which are just really f---ing obnoxious,'' he says.

According to Assange, the US Defence Advance Research Project Agency was 
funding research which involved optimising the efficiency of a military 
bulldozer called the Grizzly Plough, which was used in the Iraqi desert 
during Operation Desert Storm during the 1991 Gulf War.

''It has a problem in that it gets damaged [from] the sand rolling up in 
front. The application of this bulldozer is to move at 60 kilometres an 
hour, sweeping barbed wire and so on before it, and get the sand and put 
it in the trenches where the [Iraqi] troops are, and bury them all alive 
and then roll over the top. So that's what Melbourne University's 
applied maths department was doing - studying how to improve the 
efficiency of the Grizzly Plough.''

Assange says he did a lot of soul-searching before he finally quit his 
studies in 2007. He had already started working with other people on a 
model of WikiLeaks by early 2006.

There were people at the physics conference, he goes on, who were career 
physicists, ''and there was just something about their attire, and the 
way they moved their bodies, and of course the bags on their backs 
didn't help much either. I couldn't respect them as men''.

His university experience didn't define his cynicism, though. Assange 
says that he's extremely cynical anyway. ''I painted every corner, 
floor, wall and ceiling in the 'room' I was in, black, until there was 
only one corner left. I mean intellectually,'' he adds. ''To me, it was 
the forced move [in chess], when you have to do something or you'll lose 
the game.''

So WikiLeaks was his forced move?

''That's the way it feels to me, yes. There were no other options left 
to me on the table.''

WikiLeaks, he says, has released more classified documents than the rest 
of the world press combined.

''That's not something I say as a way of saying how successful we are - 
rather, that shows you the parlous state of the rest of the media. How 
is it that a team of five people has managed to release to the public 
more suppressed information, at that level, than the rest of the world 
press combined? It's disgraceful.''

Where does Assange see WikiLeaks in 10 years? "It's not what I want the 
world to be. It's what I want the rest of the world to be," he replies.

He would like to see all media develop their own forms of WikiLeaks. 
That would put his own website out of business, I point out.

''We have a proposal to [an American foundation] for a grant to just 
that,'' he replies, explaining that WikiLeaks could create systems for 
all media organisations.

A thought: has he ever met Rupert Murdoch? ''No.''





Fred Burton wrote:
&gt; Lena - What is this dude's Aussie background?  He seems like a lunatic
&gt; or a left-winger?  Angry Aussie w/an axe to grind.  Belongs in Swedish
&gt; politics. 
&gt;
&gt; FBI is in bed w/the Aussies.  I'm sure we are listening in to every call
&gt; the jamoke is making. 
&gt;
&gt; Lena Bell wrote:
&gt;   
&gt;&gt; Not sure that's happening re Oz; federal police have opened up an
&gt;&gt; investigation to see whether or not any Australian criminal laws were
&gt;&gt; broken. - where did Nick get the insight about an agreed extradition -
&gt;&gt; there is nothing about this on OS and of course it would mean Assange
&gt;&gt; would have to come home first. Something he is very unlikely to do.
&gt;&gt; GovGen hasn't ruled out canceling his passport incidentally.
&gt;&gt; His mother has recently been interviewed by the ABC and she is scared
&gt;&gt; that he will be "hunted down and jailed"...  will make it difficult to
&gt;&gt; pursue the scenario painted below. Australians are likely to back him.
&gt;&gt; You wouldn't believe how much press/public sentiment david hicks
&gt;&gt; created in Guantanamo Bay. It really forced the Howard govt to change
&gt;&gt; tactics... esp when polling results overall were so poor.**
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Bayless Parsley wrote:
&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt; The main thing I was trying to ask about earlier was in regards to
&gt;&gt;&gt; the logistics of actually detaining the guy.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; I got the sense that Fred was saying US agents could physically do it
&gt;&gt;&gt; in another country. Perhaps I just misunderstood what he was trying
&gt;&gt;&gt; to say, because I find that really hard to believe (as rendition is
&gt;&gt;&gt; not an option in this case, which is why I brought up the fact that
&gt;&gt;&gt; some Republican congressmen are trying to call Assange a "terrorist"
&gt;&gt;&gt; now).
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Basic fact is that any move to arrest the guy (assuming they get an
&gt;&gt;&gt; indictment for him) would require that a friendly government do it
&gt;&gt;&gt; and then extradite him. Nick Miller told me the Australians have
&gt;&gt;&gt; already offered to do this, as Assange is an Australian citizen, and
&gt;&gt;&gt; Australia is the Canada of the southern hemisphere when it comes to
&gt;&gt;&gt; its relations with the US.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Also, Karen had a very good point about the sex charges. Weren't
&gt;&gt;&gt; those dropped months ago after the initial allegations? What do ya
&gt;&gt;&gt; know, after the US explictly warned him time and again to stop
&gt;&gt;&gt; publishing the cables, it pops back up all of a sudden...
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; On 12/1/10 12:36 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; can you charge them with anything if they paid for the information?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On Dec 1, 2010, at 12:35 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; You mean by helping Manning get the information off the networks? 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Training, computer codes, flash drives, etc??  That's a good point. 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On 12/1/10 12:31 PM, George Friedman wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;           
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; He might have facilitated or suborned the access. For example,
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; provided the means for distirbuting it.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; ------------------------------------------------------------------------
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; *From: *Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; *Date: *Wed, 1 Dec 2010 12:19:09 -0600 (CST)
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; *To: *Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; *ReplyTo: *Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; *Subject: *Re: Info - Wiki Founder
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; I think it's very difficult to indict him on anything though. 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; MAYBE espionage, but even those laws are still too old.  I think
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; your FBI contact is right (sadly).  the US can really only get the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; person who did the leak, not who published it--George also pointed
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; this out over the weekend. 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; What would the sealed indictment be for?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; (this is also why they will get him on some other charges in
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; another country....)
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On 12/1/10 12:15 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sealed indictment.  Hand the warrant over to the USMS to execute.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Happens everyday.  The USMS works w/their counterparts and lock
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; the dude
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; up.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Bayless Parsley wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;          
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;               
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; How would it work if the US wanted to catch such a high profile
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; target
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; like this? Despite what one Republican senator may have said the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; other
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; day (can't remember who, or if it was even a senator), he's not a
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; "terrorist," and so rendition..... wouldn't really be an option.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; But legally, you'd have to have the host government's
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; cooperation. Is
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; there any way aside from that scenario that could lead to his
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; arrest
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; on charges of breaking US laws?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On 12/1/10 12:12 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;            
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; &gt;From a very good contact @ the FBI --
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; How come you guys haven't picked this left-wing lunatic
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; WikiLeaks founder up on
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; some sort of trumped up charge?  
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; 1st Amendment overprotects journalists. 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                   
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                   
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sean Noonan
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Tactical Analyst
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; www.stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sean Noonan
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Tactical Analyst
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; www.stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;           
</description>
    <date>2010-12-01 21:15:19</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1675937_re-info-wiki-founder-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>lena.bell@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1675979</id>
    <title>Re: FOR EDIT- Assange Arrest
</title>
    <description>   Visa now blocking wikileaks too:
   http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/technology/2010-12-07-visa-wikileaks_N.htm

   On 12/7/10 9:15 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     *thanks to all for the very helpful comments. 

     Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks Survival

     Display: the Douchiest picture of Assange possible.  

      

     Summary:

     WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange was arrested in Britain December 7,
     following an Interpol Red Notice based on a Swedish warrant.  WikiLeaks
     is a new organization with one leader that has not institutionalized.
      Assange's arrest will test its ability to maintain itself as an
     institution, but the concept of leaking documents on the internet will
     continue.  

      

     Analysis:

     London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and
     public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7 when he turned
     himself in.  He is due to appear in a court in Westminster soon to face
     a hearing over charges against him in Sweden, and possible extradition.
      There is considerable interest in what this can mean for his
     organization.  While it's possible that Assange's arrest could disrupt
     the long-term viability of WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release of
     cables in the short-term and will not stop similar future leaks via the
     internet.

      

     Leadership can be extremely important in non-governmental organizations
     that have not institutionalized.  From &lt;terrorist groups&gt; [LINK:
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090923_death_top_indonesian_militant]
     to charities, new organizations often ebb and flow along with their
     founders.  WikiLeaks organized a new method for an old practice- leaking
     confidential government information in an attempt to influence politics.

      

     Assange created WikiLeaks with himself as the only public face-- he
     leads supporters, drives donations, gives interviews and faces
     criticism. There have been reports of internal dissent and tensions, and
     in one interview with CNN, discussion of the organizations internal
     politics seemed to touch a nerve with Assange.  If Assange were to face
     charges in Sweden for sexual assault or new charges in the UK or US and
     was found guilty, WikiLeaks would still need someone to operate it.
      Assange may have someone waiting in the wings, but that is not evident.

      

     WikiLeaks has also suffered logistically.  As national governments put
     pressure on its infrastructure, its websites have been shut down and
     most importantly a major source of funding, PayPal, has closed
     WikiLeaks' account (Mastercard has also banned payments from its card to
     WikiLeaks). It is also not clear whether the events of the last few
     months will encourage or deter other potential leakers from approaching
     Wikileaks as opposed to other organizations (especially if they dislike
     or disagree with Assange.  Moreover, this new set of documents have not
     worked out like Assange expected- the U.S. public is not angry at the
     State Department, but many are angry at Assange and his organization.
     [LINK:
     http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical_diary/20101206_geopolitics_continue_despite_wikileaks]

     Immediately following Assange's arrest, WikiLeaks spokesperson Kristinn
     Hrafnsson said that it would not stop the group's operations. Indeed,
     whether Assange remains behind bars or not, it most likely will not stop
     the continued leaks of this large batch of US State Department cables.
      It also will not shut down WikiLeaks, which still maintains its website
     (albeit currently on a Swiss server, after its initial site's were
     deactivated) and the ability to collect information from leakers.  So in
     the short-term, WikiLeaks will continue.  The question remains if
     Assange created a truly sustainable institution-- one where leaders are
     replaceable, members can adapt to changing circumstance, and
     representatives can aid and inspire new leakers.  Will leakers continue
     to go to the, or choose other organizations?

      

     If Assange is extradited to Sweden and tried of one count of unlawful
     coercion, two counts of sexual molestation and one count of rape, the
     question is how much WikiLeaks image will be damaged.  He may try to use
     prison time- especially before trial- to develop his image as a martyr,
     but this can always backfire.  If WikiLeaks, however, is not tied to his
     image, it will be much more sustainable as an organization.  

      

     Western governments also fear whatever is contained in his "insurance"
     file, for which he threatens to release an encryption key if something
     happens to him.  The file was released across the internet and has been
     downloaded by countless number of people.  What it contains is still
     secret, but WikiLeaks may have threatened the US government and others
     with clues to its contents.  WikiLeaks has likely already released its
     most damaging documents in an attempt to get public attention.  This new
     file then probably does not contain higher-level secret information, but
     instead may be full of names.  Those names being sources who will be at
     risk and those of diplomats, military or intelligence officers who could
     lose their jobs or even lives.  These people who could be adversely
     affected by the release of the insurance file also pose another
     conundrum for wikileaks. Exposing them and impacting them in a
     vindictive manner could further tarnish Assange and Wikileaks in the
     eyes of the international public, to include potential financial and
     information contributors.  

      

     WikiLeaks is now facing a conundrum that all new organizations do--the
     ability to maintain and transition leadership through adverse
     circumstances.  Maybe Assange will be released quickly-- STRATFOR cannot
     speak to the veracity of the charges against him-- but if he isn't,
     WikiLeaks survival is brought into question.  But even if WikiLeaks
     disappears, the organizational concept will still continue, and leaks
     along with it.  WikiLeaks has only demonstrated the ability new
     technology has created to transfer such large quantities of documents,
     and there is no reason other organizations will not make use of the same
     technology.  

      

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 16:40:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1675979_re-for-edit-assange-arrest-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1676182</id>
    <title>Re: Fwd: Another question for MX1
</title>
    <description>   OK, here is the deal with Fox.

   Fox is disliked by EVERYONE.  DUring his administration, he put
   expectations far too high. Once in power, he proved to be a good
   campaigner but a fairly poor politician.  He basically did nothing, and
   let the cartels grow.  Calderon, however, cannot pass the buck back to
   Fox, as there are certain segments of the PAN that protect him.

   With regard to taking the troops off of the streets, I can share the
   following:
   The first troops will begin to leave CDJ in September, but the JOC will
   likely continue with lesser numbers until March.
   Many media outlets have expressed the grave concern that comes with having
   the troops deployed.  MOre instances disertions, and human rights abuses
   are making many question the strategy.  Fox was a much bigger champion of
   human rights than Calderon.  Lets remember the first of Fox's actions when
   he came to government: Demilitarize Chiapas.  Calderon's first action:
   Deploy troops to Michoacan.  In this sense, they have always been at odds
   with regards to the use of the military to combat organized crime. 
   Nonetheless, Fox has in teh pas, expressed support for the current
   policy.  LIke most Mexicans, Fox is questioning the price of the
   operations, particularly considering the risk to human rights and the
   progress made by Mexico on the democratic front in the past 10 years. 

   Finally, does anyone care what Fox says?  No.  He is more than a lame
   duck, he is considered by many Mexicans to be clinically insane and
   inbalanced.  Not particularly hated by anyone, but not that well liked. 
   As I have mentioned before, this had more to do with the way congress
   interacted with Los Pinos during his Presidency, and was only compounded
   by lack of political knowhow, than with him being despised per se.

   The troops will begin to go back.  My own personal analysis of this
   however, is that this has to do with many factors (Fox is not one of
   them).  Chief among them in my analysis, however, is the dissent being
   voiced quietly by some generals over what they perceive to be a risk to
   the prestige of the institution, as discussed with FB.

     ----- Original Message -----
     From: marko.papic@stratfor.com
     To: "De Le Mora Fernando" &lt;fdlm@diplomats.com&gt;
     Subject: Fwd: Another question for MX1
     Date: Fri, 14 Aug 2009 21:25:05 -0500 (CDT)

     Begin forwarded message:

       From: meiners@stratfor.com
       Date: August 14, 2009 8:01:21 PM CDT
       To: Marko Papic &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
       Subject: Another question for MX1

       Fox said today that it's time to pull the military off the streets.
       Has Fox always expressed this view? Do be and Calderon disagree often
       on policy regarding the cartel war?
</description>
    <date>2009-08-17 02:04:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-09 05:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1676182_re-fwd-another-question-for-mx1-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>fdlm@diplomats.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1677509</id>
    <title>Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade
</title>
    <description>   Also, another logical problem with the argument of Mexico planting guns to
   the U.S. is that that would mean that they have some ability to trace the
   serial numbers first themselves. But they obviously don't have that
   capacity.

   Although, they could do it by make... Sort of like send the U.S. just the
   AR-15s, since obviously those are manufactured in the U.S. To tell you the
   truth, all of that sounds pretty organized for a fucked up place like
   Mexico.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 3:42:55 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   These are all good points...

   But the story itself is a strange choice to include to back up your
   argument... Fromt he story itself:

   But the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, which handles
   the U.S. investigations, is at the mercy of local Mexican police for the
   amount and quality of the information.

   "Many of these rural municipalities that may come into a gun seizure ...
   may not even know anything about tracing guns," ATF spokesman Thomas
   Mangan said.

   That is almost verbatim what MX1 is saying. No?

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 3:25:47 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   But I simply don't buy the logic that the Mexicans are too inept to pull
   the serial numbers off of recovered guns.  ATF has been in the country
   since the 1980's and has conducted hundreds of classes on identification,
   plus the Mexican military has weapons specialists in dedicated weapons
   storage facilities that are fully capable of copying down serial numbers: 
    
   http://abcnews.go.com/International/WireStory?id=7518874&amp;page=1
    
   The fact that the Mexican government is only turning over 7200 serial
   numbers a year to the US for tracing is incredible -- and very meaningful
   to a curious analyst.
    
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Tuesday, July 07, 2009 4:16 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade
   Definitely... plus if you could seal the border forever... and stop the
   flow of guns (magically), there are still guns that are in mexico.

   That is why ATF needs to be INSIDE there... which is what MX1 was saying.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 3:13:21 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   Look back at this piece.
    
   http://www.stratfor.com/tracing_mexicos_guns
    
   There are certain classes of weapons that the cartels obtain from the U.S.
   but certain other classes that they do not.
    
   In recent years we are seeing the cartel enforcer groups move more toward
   what I call the class 3 weapons - assault rifles, grenades and RPGs -- as
   the cartel wars have heated up.
    
   Even if they U.S. border were hermitically sealed this afternoon, the
   cartels would still be able to get guns.
    
    
    
    
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Tuesday, July 07, 2009 4:03 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade
   Also, note that this is not all about price. Price only matters in a free
   market ceteris paribus theoretical. I can't think of something that is
   more not governed by free market than gun sales. I don't doubt that heavy
   weapons and grenades do not come from the U.S. That is just Mex gov't
   propaganda. But why on earth would all the other stuff come from anywhere
   else, regardless of the price, when you can cross the border and buy it in
   the U.S.

   Also, are you factoring transportation and cost of security for weapons
   shipped from China or Asia? You can't just look at face value price when
   you need to factor a number of other actors. It just seems ludicrous to me
   that the cartels would get light arms from anywhere else.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 2:59:44 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   That's good... definitely a link to add to it.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 2:57:39 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   You know, a really good way to prove this theory would be to show that
   there is gun flow from Mexico INTO the U.S. That would prove your
   assertion about market dynamics which I am not necessarily sold on.

   Here you go.  We have a documented flow of grenades into the US from MX.

    

   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090210_mexico_u_s_new_weapon_cartel_arsenal

    

   Guns are still more expensive in MX than in the US but there are other
   places where they are cheaper than either the US or MX.

    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Tuesday, July 07, 2009 3:50 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade
   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 2:07:05 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   I didn't intend to get so deeply into the economic end of things when I
   began writing (this was supposed to be essentially  a primer on how
   international arms markets work) but when I began to think about the
   current gun and ammo shortages in the U.S. I kind of had an epiphany... 
   (I've been trying to buy a block of .22 rounds for weeks now. The guy
   at Wal-mart told me he got a shipment of .22s in last week and they sold
   out in 3 hours.)   This also has to have an impact on the cartels.

    

    

    

    

    

    

   Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

    

   On June 26, the small town of Apaseo el Alto, Guanajuato state, Mexico,
   was the scene of a [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090629_mexico_security_memo_june_29_2009
   ]  brief but deadly firefight between members of Los Zetas and federal and
   local security forces.  The engagement began when a joint patrol of
   Mexican soldiers and law enforcement officers responded to a report of
   heavily armed men at a suspected drug safe-house. When the patrol arrived,
   a 20 minute firefight erupted between the security forces and gunmen in
   the house, as well as several suspects in two vehicles that threw
   fragmentation grenades as they attempted to escape.

   When the shooting stopped, twelve gunmen were dead and twelve had been
   taken into custody, while several soldiers and police were reported
   wounded. At least half the detained suspects admitted to being members of
   Los Zetas. 

   When authorities examined the house they discovered a pit that contained
   the remains of an undetermined number of people (perhaps 14 or 15) who are
   believed to have been executed and then burned beyond recognition by Los
   Zetas.  The house also contained a large cache of weapons, including
   assault rifles and fragmentation grenades. Such [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/mexico_coming_fight_control_matamoros ] military
   ordnance is frequently used by Los Zetas and the enforcers who work for
   their rival cartels.

   STRATFOR has been [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/theme/tracking_mexicos_drug_cartels ] closely
   following the cartel violence in Mexico for several years now, and
   certainly the events that transpired in Apaseo el Alto are by no means
   unique. It is not uncommon for the Mexican authorities to engage in large
   firefights with cartel groups, encounter mass graves or [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20081112_worrying_signs_border_raids ]
   recover large caches of arms.  The recovery of these weapons does,
   however, provide an opportunity to once again focus on the dynamics of
   Mexicoa**s arms trade.

    

   White Black and Shades of Gray

    

   Before we get down in the weeds in Mexicoa**s arms flow, leta**s do
   something just a little different and first take a brief look at how arms
   trafficking works on a larger global and regional scale. Doing so will
   help better illustrate how the arms trafficking in Mexico fits into
   these broader patterns.

    

   When analysts examine arms sales they look at three general categories,
   the white arms, market, the gray arms market and the black arms market.
   The white arms market is the totally legal, above board transfer of
   weapons in accordance with the national laws of the parties involved and
   international treaties or restrictions. The parties in a white arms deal
   will file the proper paperwork to include end-user certificates noting
   what is being sold who is selling it and who it is going to.  There is an
   understanding that the receiving party does not intend to transfer the
   weapons to a third party. So for example, if the Mexican Army wants to buy
   an order of assault rifles from German arms maker Heckler and Koch, it
   places the order with the company and fills out all the required
   paperwork, to include getting permission for the sale from the German
   government.     

    

   Now, the white arms market can be deceived and manipulated, and when this
   happens, we get the gray market a** literally white arms that are shifted
   into the hands of someone other than the purported recipient. On of the
   classic ways to do this is to either falsify an end user certificate or to
   bribe an official in a third country to sign an end user certificate but
   then allow a shipment of arms to pass through a country en route to a
   third location. This type of transaction is frequently used in cases where
   there are international arms embargoes against a particular country (like
   Liberia) or where it is illegal to sell arms to a militant group (such as
   the FARC.)  On example of this would be Ukrainian small arms that were on
   paper supposed to go to CA'te d'Ivoire, but that were really transferred
   in violation of UN arms embargoes to Liberia and Sierra Leone. Another
   example of this would be the government of Peru ostensibly purchasing
   thousands of surplus East German assault rifles from Jordan on the white
   arms market but then those rifles slipped into the gray arms world when
   they were dropped at airstrips in the jungles of Colombia for use by the
   FARC instead of being delivered to the Peruvian military.

    

   At the far end of the spectrum is the black arms market where the guns are
   contraband from the get go and all the business is conducted under the
   board. There are no end user certificates and the weapons are smuggled
   covertly. Examples of this would be the smuggling of arms from the Former
   Soviet Union (FSU) and Afghanistan into Europe through places like Kosovo
   and Slovenia, or the smuggling of arms into South America from Asia, the
   FSU and Middle East by Hezbollah and criminal gangs in the Tri-Border
   Region.

    

   Nation states will often use the gray and black arms markets in order to
   support allies, undermine opponents or otherwise pursue their national
   interests. This was clearly revealed in the Iran-Contra scandal of the mid
   1980a**s but Iran-Contra only scratched the surface of the arms smuggling
   that occurred during the Cold War.  Untold tons of military ordnance was
   delivered by the U.S. and the Soviet Union and Cuba to their respective
   allies in Latin America during the Cold War.

   This quantity of materiel shipped into Latin America during the Cold War
   brings up another very important point pertaining to weapons. Unlike
   drugs, which are consumable goods, firearms are durable goods. This means
   that they can be useful for decades and are frequently shipped from
   conflict zone to conflict zone. East German MPiKMS and MPiKM assault
   rifles are still floating around the worlda**s arms markets years after
   the German Democratic Republic ceased to exist.  In fact, visiting an arms
   bazaar in a place like Yemen is like visiting an arms museum. One can
   encounter functional century-old Lee-Enfield and Springfield rifles in a
   rack next to a modern U.S. M-4 rifle or a German HK 93, and those next to
   brand-new, just out of the box, Chinese Type 56 and 81 assault rifles.  

    

   There is often a correlation between arms and drug smuggling. In many
   instances the same routes used to smuggle drugs are also used to smuggle
   arms. In some instances, like the smuggling routes from Central Asia to
   Europe, the flow of guns and drugs flows in the same direction, and they
   are both sold in Western Europe for cash.  In the case of Latin American
   cocaine, the drugs tend to flow in one direction (towards the U.S. and
   Europe) while guns from the U.S. and Russian organized crime groups flow
   in the other direction, and often times the guns are used as whole or
   partial payment for the drugs.

    

   Illegal drugs are not the only thing traded for guns.  During the Cold War
   there was a robust arms-for-sugar trade going on between the Cubans and
   Vietnamese. As a result, Marxist groups all over Latin America were
   furnished with U.S. materiel either captured or left behind when the
   Americans withdrew from the country.  LAW rockets traced to U.S. military
   stocks sent to Vietnam were used in several attacks by Latin American
   Marxist groups. These Vietnam-war vintage weapons still crop up with some
   frequency in Mexico, Colombia and other parts of the region. Cold-war era
   weapons furnished to the likes of the Contras, the Sandinistas, the FMLN
   and URNG in the 1980a**s are also frequently encountered in the region.

    

   After the civil wars ended in places like El Salvador and Guatemala, the
   governments and international community attempted to institute arms
   by-back programs, but those programs were not very successful and most of
   the guns turned in were very old a** the better arms were cached by groups
   or kept by individuals.  These guns have found their way in dribs and
   drabs back onto the black arms market

    

   Well Over 90%

    

   For several years now, Mexican officials have been telling STRATFOR that
   [link http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/mexico_dynamics_gun_trade ] 90
   percent of the arms used by criminals in Mexico come from the U.S.  Last
   month, that  number was echoed in a report by the Government
   Accountability Office (GAO) report on U.S. efforts to Conbat Arms
   Trafficking to Mexico (see external link).

    

     External link http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09709.pdf

     

   The GAO report stated that in 2008, some 30,000 firearms were seized from
   criminals by Mexican officials. Out of these 30,000 firearms, information
   pertaining to 7,200 of the, (24 percent) was submitted to ATF for tracing.
   Of these 7,200 guns, only approximately 4,000 could be traced and of these
   4,000, some 3,480 or 87 percent, were shown to have come from the U.S. 

    

   This means that the 87 percent number comes from the number of weapons
   submitted by the Mexican government to ATF that could be successfully
   traced, and not from the total number of weapons seized by the Mexicans or
   even from the total number of weapons submitted to ATF for tracing. The
   3,480 guns positively traced to the U.S. only equals less than 12 percent
   of the total arms seized in 2008 and less than 48 percent of those
   submitted to the ATF for tracing by the Mexican government.

   From our contact we have information for why this is so... He has before
   told us that Mexican authorities are incapable of properly tracing serial
   numbers and that often ATF uses numbers gathered in the open source. Many
   of these numbers are not serial numbers at all... instead they are model
   numbers or something else.

   Contact was adamant that the only way this could work is if the ATF had an
   actual presence in Mexico itself.

    

   The 87 percent number is not supported by the evidence presented by the
   GAO. In a response to the GAO report that was published as part of the
   report, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security called the GAOa**s use of
   the 87 percent statistic a**misleadinga**.  DHS further noted that
   a**Numerous problems with the data collection and sample population render
   this assertion as unreliable.a** Yes, this is most definitely corroborated
   by our Mexican contact.

    

   Interestingly, when STRATFOR asked a Mexican government official about the
   report in an attempt to get an honest read on the scope of the problem of
   U.S. firearms going to Mexico, the official told us (off the record) that
   the amount of ordnance (guns, grenades, ammunition, etc.) seized by the
   Mexican government that come from the U.S. is a**way over 90 percent.a**  
   With the 87 percent number being dubious, the a**way over 90 percenta**
   claim is really very hard to swallow. 

   Now at STRATFOR, we really dislike it when people attempt to feed us
   disinformation in an attempt to get us to report it to further some
   agenda. Of course such efforts quickly lead us to consider exactly what
   that agenda is, and frequently examining the motives of such people who 
   provides us with more interesting intelligence than the initial report
   itself. In this case it is clear that the motive of the Mexican government
   is simple deflection.

   It is not just deflection. Mexico is trying to establish the concept of
   "shared responsibility". That has been a key phrase that we have heard
   from U.S. officials themselves and from our contact as well. I personally
   think they are angling to get U.S. to feel sorry for them...

   The Mexicans have been criticized by the U.S. for decades over their
   inability to stop the flow of narcotics through their territory. Instead
   of addressing the hard problem and stopping the flow of narcotics, they
   have instead attempted to deflect criticism by blaming the guns proceeding
   from the U.S. for their inability to stop the flow of drugs. This is
   strange because Mexico has been arguing against U.S. arms flow for
   years... this is not something that is new. Sounds a bit like you're
   griping too...

   We strongly suspect that there is a program underway to cherry pick the
   guns provided to the ATF for tracing and that only those guns that are
   likely to be traced back to the U.S. are provided for tracing. Sounds like
   metaphysical intelligence to me... are you sure your sources on the U.S.
   side are not doing the same thing our Mexican soruces are?

    

   We strongly doubt the Mexicans are providing ATF information from the
   RPG-7 rocket launchers, South Korean hand grenades, Israeli, South African
   Belgian, German, Chinese and other foreign weapons that likely have no
   connection to the U.S.  In this way they Mexicans are able to spin the
   arms tracing figures in their favor, which provides them with a ready
   response whenever the U.S. criticizes Mexican counternarcotics efforts.
   Again, unless you have evidence of this... we are doing metaphysical
   intelligence. Our Mexican contact has said repeatedly that without ATF
   presence in Mexico, there is going to be no proper intelligence on serial
   numbers. He has said in a conversation two days ago that Mexico is hoping
   to have something in place where ATF is present in Mexico. It was in an
   insight that you commented on that he was smoking crack.

   Again, from the contact:

   The only really effective way to clamp down on trafficking in arms is to
   institutionalize physical access by ATF agents to Mexico, so they can take
   pictures, and run traces from there.  There are many dangers to this, but
   it is something that is being worked on, and which I expect to see
   completed within the next 12 months, at least de jure.

    

   Reality

    

   Arms, like drugs are a commodity, and as such, the economic laws of supply
   and demand play a big part in global arms trafficking. Ordnance flows from
   places where it is cheap and available to places where it is not. Because
   of this, the a**well over 90 percenta** argument does not make a whole lot
   of economic sense. Wait why? Logically it makes sense that it would flow
   from U.S.... at least the small arms (certainly not the heavy stuff that
   they get from corrupt Mexican cops and army). I mean you cross the border,
   go to a gun show and you get a gun... IT's simple.

    

   Firstly, it must be recognized that while arms sales are restricted in
   Mexico, they do occur and people are able to buy weapons from the
   government. In fact guns in calibers that are very popular in Mexico but
   fairly uncommon in the U.S. (like the .38 Super) are commonly used by
   criminals.    Yup... corroberated by contact.

    

   Secondly at the present time assault rifles are very expensive in the
   United States, as is ammunition. In fact, it is difficult to locate many
   types of assault rifles and ammunition at the present time, though a lucky
   buyer might be able to find a basic stripped down AR-15 for between $850
   and $1100, or and an AK-47 for between $650 and $850. Obviously, a gun
   purchased in the U.S., smuggled into Mexico and sold to a cartel is going
   to carry a premium well above this purchase price. Sure, but you just have
   to cross the border to get it. Also, this does not preclude gun sales
   prior to price inflation.  Now, by way of comparison, a surplus assault
   rifle can be purchased for under $100 on the white arms market, and about
   the same on the black arms market in locations where weapons are abundant.
   That difference in price provides a powerful economic incentive to buy low
   elsewhere and sell high in Mexico.  Indeed, we have seen reports of
   international arms merchants from places like Israel and Belgium, selling
   weapons to the cartels, and that ordnance is coming into Mexico through
   routes other than over the U.S. border.  

    

   You know, a really good way to prove this theory would be to show that
   there is gun flow from Mexico INTO the U.S. That would prove your
   assertion about market dynamics which I am not necessarily sold on.

   At the same time as gun and ammunition prices have spiked in the U.S. the
   profits of the Mexican cartels have plummeted due to increased enforcement
   efforts and inter- and intra- cartel wars.  Many of the cartels are
   hurting for money and have had to resort to kidnapping and other crime in
   order to finance their operations. That means that they will be attempting
   to purchase maximum firepower for the minimum price.

    

   The Bottom Line

    

   STRATFOR believes that the issue of U.S. guns being sent south of the
   border is a serious issue, but we do not believe that U.S. weapons
   represent any where near 90 percent of the cartelsa** weaponry a**
   especially their military-style weapons like fully automatic assault
   rifles, fragmentation grenades and RPGa**s, where the percentage of U.S.
   ordnance is negligible. Yeah, I think that is true as well... definitely
   not the heavy serious stuff. The cartels clearly have contacts with arms
   dealers outside of the U.S. both those who deal in cold war-era stocks of
   arms in Latin America and international arms merchants who can supply arms
   from around the world.

    

   While increased U.S. enforcement efforts will have an impact as the risk
   of being caught outweighs the profit that can be made by selling guns to
   the cartels, we believe that economics (high gun prices and scarce
   ammunition supplies you are overemphesizing this... this is a current
   issue that has nothing to do with last 3-4 years of arms sales though. )
   may play an equally important part in reducing the flow of U.S. guns to
   Mexico IN THE FUTURE (or at least while Obama is the President). The laws
   of supply and demand will ensure that the Mexican cartels get their
   ordnance in the most price effective way, and with the current gun and
   ammunition supply issues in the U.S. that will likely mean that an even
   greater amount of that supply will come from outside the U.S. via the gray
   and black arms markets.

    
   Scott Stewart
   STRATFOR
   Office: 814 967 4046
   Cell: 814 573 8297
   scott.stewart@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
    
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1677509_re-s-weekly-for-comment-mexico-economics-and-the-arms-trade-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1677524</id>
    <title>Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade
</title>
    <description>   Yes... but can the Mexicans?

   Either way, you're the expert on the subject. I am telling you as a
   non-expert, however, that there is no evidence in your analysis to back up
   the conclusion that Mexican gov't is doing this on purpose. No hard
   evidence.

   Alternatively, this brings up the question of what is the point of the
   piece. Is it to say that Mexico gripes and bitches about U.S. arm imports
   to deflect blame for the narco war? Isn't that obvious and hasn't that
   been going on for eons?

   Ok, but you also make a much more pertinent point that the 90+ percent
   figures are inflated. Ok, that seems pretty plausible considering their
   obvious PR efforts and a lot of other things...

   But what are they inflated from? 60%? 70%? And what is the point? At what
   percentage is U.S. absolved of responsibility? Does it even matter?

   Furthermore, it is quite clear from one of our contacts that Mexico wants
   ATF to come into Mexico in full force. How does that fit into your piece?
   Right now, you're just saying that Mexicans are lying to deflect
   criticism. But then asking for greater ATF involvement (frome sovereignty
   conscious Mexico by the way!!) is what? A way to throw us off?

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 4:58:06 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   I have done arms cache exploitation investigations.
    
   With a team of 4 - 5 people I could send in 7200 verified serial
   numbers for tracing in a week or less. And this would include digital
   photos for back-up documentation.  
    
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Tuesday, July 07, 2009 5:46 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade
   That Mexican government is sending only the guns they want to send to the
   U.S. so as to back up the claim that most of the guns come from teh U.S.

   Right now, you make a logical assumption based on how many guns Mexico has
   in storage and how poorly they send things to the U.S. and how there is
   such a small sample of serial numbers that gets to the U.S. Ok,
   understood... but do we have any concrete evidence of this? We can't just
   throw out a theory based on conjecture.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 4:42:54 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   Confirm what?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Tuesday, July 07, 2009 5:36 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade
   Can we confirm this with our ATF sources?

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 4:34:59 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   It's still metaphysical intelligence...

   Also, looks to me like they want ATF more deeply involved... how to we
   process that?

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 4:31:53 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   The Mexicans certainly do have the capability to trace the guns that are
   sold through UCAM.
    
   And they may be messed up, but they know the US does not make RPG 7
   rockets or South Korean frag grenades.
    
   AK varients imported to the US for sale also bear distinctive markings and
   features.
    
    
    
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Tuesday, July 07, 2009 4:46 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade
   Also, another logical problem with the argument of Mexico planting guns to
   the U.S. is that that would mean that they have some ability to trace the
   serial numbers first themselves. But they obviously don't have that
   capacity.

   Although, they could do it by make... Sort of like send the U.S. just the
   AR-15s, since obviously those are manufactured in the U.S. To tell you the
   truth, all of that sounds pretty organized for a fucked up place like
   Mexico.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 3:42:55 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   These are all good points...

   But the story itself is a strange choice to include to back up your
   argument... Fromt he story itself:

   But the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, which handles
   the U.S. investigations, is at the mercy of local Mexican police for the
   amount and quality of the information.

   "Many of these rural municipalities that may come into a gun seizure ...
   may not even know anything about tracing guns," ATF spokesman Thomas
   Mangan said.

   That is almost verbatim what MX1 is saying. No?

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 3:25:47 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   But I simply don't buy the logic that the Mexicans are too inept to pull
   the serial numbers off of recovered guns.  ATF has been in the country
   since the 1980's and has conducted hundreds of classes on identification,
   plus the Mexican military has weapons specialists in dedicated weapons
   storage facilities that are fully capable of copying down serial numbers: 
    
   http://abcnews.go.com/International/WireStory?id=7518874&amp;page=1
    
   The fact that the Mexican government is only turning over 7200 serial
   numbers a year to the US for tracing is incredible -- and very meaningful
   to a curious analyst.
    
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Tuesday, July 07, 2009 4:16 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade
   Definitely... plus if you could seal the border forever... and stop the
   flow of guns (magically), there are still guns that are in mexico.

   That is why ATF needs to be INSIDE there... which is what MX1 was saying.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 3:13:21 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   Look back at this piece.
    
   http://www.stratfor.com/tracing_mexicos_guns
    
   There are certain classes of weapons that the cartels obtain from the U.S.
   but certain other classes that they do not.
    
   In recent years we are seeing the cartel enforcer groups move more toward
   what I call the class 3 weapons - assault rifles, grenades and RPGs -- as
   the cartel wars have heated up.
    
   Even if they U.S. border were hermitically sealed this afternoon, the
   cartels would still be able to get guns.
    
    
    
    
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Tuesday, July 07, 2009 4:03 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade
   Also, note that this is not all about price. Price only matters in a free
   market ceteris paribus theoretical. I can't think of something that is
   more not governed by free market than gun sales. I don't doubt that heavy
   weapons and grenades do not come from the U.S. That is just Mex gov't
   propaganda. But why on earth would all the other stuff come from anywhere
   else, regardless of the price, when you can cross the border and buy it in
   the U.S.

   Also, are you factoring transportation and cost of security for weapons
   shipped from China or Asia? You can't just look at face value price when
   you need to factor a number of other actors. It just seems ludicrous to me
   that the cartels would get light arms from anywhere else.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 2:59:44 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   That's good... definitely a link to add to it.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 2:57:39 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   You know, a really good way to prove this theory would be to show that
   there is gun flow from Mexico INTO the U.S. That would prove your
   assertion about market dynamics which I am not necessarily sold on.

   Here you go.  We have a documented flow of grenades into the US from MX.

    

   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090210_mexico_u_s_new_weapon_cartel_arsenal

    

   Guns are still more expensive in MX than in the US but there are other
   places where they are cheaper than either the US or MX.

    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Tuesday, July 07, 2009 3:50 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade
   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 2:07:05 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   I didn't intend to get so deeply into the economic end of things when I
   began writing (this was supposed to be essentially  a primer on how
   international arms markets work) but when I began to think about the
   current gun and ammo shortages in the U.S. I kind of had an epiphany... 
   (I've been trying to buy a block of .22 rounds for weeks now. The guy
   at Wal-mart told me he got a shipment of .22s in last week and they sold
   out in 3 hours.)   This also has to have an impact on the cartels.

    

    

    

    

    

    

   Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

    

   On June 26, the small town of Apaseo el Alto, Guanajuato state, Mexico,
   was the scene of a [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090629_mexico_security_memo_june_29_2009
   ]  brief but deadly firefight between members of Los Zetas and federal and
   local security forces.  The engagement began when a joint patrol of
   Mexican soldiers and law enforcement officers responded to a report of
   heavily armed men at a suspected drug safe-house. When the patrol arrived,
   a 20 minute firefight erupted between the security forces and gunmen in
   the house, as well as several suspects in two vehicles that threw
   fragmentation grenades as they attempted to escape.

   When the shooting stopped, twelve gunmen were dead and twelve had been
   taken into custody, while several soldiers and police were reported
   wounded. At least half the detained suspects admitted to being members of
   Los Zetas. 

   When authorities examined the house they discovered a pit that contained
   the remains of an undetermined number of people (perhaps 14 or 15) who are
   believed to have been executed and then burned beyond recognition by Los
   Zetas.  The house also contained a large cache of weapons, including
   assault rifles and fragmentation grenades. Such [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/mexico_coming_fight_control_matamoros ] military
   ordnance is frequently used by Los Zetas and the enforcers who work for
   their rival cartels.

   STRATFOR has been [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/theme/tracking_mexicos_drug_cartels ] closely
   following the cartel violence in Mexico for several years now, and
   certainly the events that transpired in Apaseo el Alto are by no means
   unique. It is not uncommon for the Mexican authorities to engage in large
   firefights with cartel groups, encounter mass graves or [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20081112_worrying_signs_border_raids ]
   recover large caches of arms.  The recovery of these weapons does,
   however, provide an opportunity to once again focus on the dynamics of
   Mexicoa**s arms trade.

    

   White Black and Shades of Gray

    

   Before we get down in the weeds in Mexicoa**s arms flow, leta**s do
   something just a little different and first take a brief look at how arms
   trafficking works on a larger global and regional scale. Doing so will
   help better illustrate how the arms trafficking in Mexico fits into
   these broader patterns.

    

   When analysts examine arms sales they look at three general categories,
   the white arms, market, the gray arms market and the black arms market.
   The white arms market is the totally legal, above board transfer of
   weapons in accordance with the national laws of the parties involved and
   international treaties or restrictions. The parties in a white arms deal
   will file the proper paperwork to include end-user certificates noting
   what is being sold who is selling it and who it is going to.  There is an
   understanding that the receiving party does not intend to transfer the
   weapons to a third party. So for example, if the Mexican Army wants to buy
   an order of assault rifles from German arms maker Heckler and Koch, it
   places the order with the company and fills out all the required
   paperwork, to include getting permission for the sale from the German
   government.     

    

   Now, the white arms market can be deceived and manipulated, and when this
   happens, we get the gray market a** literally white arms that are shifted
   into the hands of someone other than the purported recipient. On of the
   classic ways to do this is to either falsify an end user certificate or to
   bribe an official in a third country to sign an end user certificate but
   then allow a shipment of arms to pass through a country en route to a
   third location. This type of transaction is frequently used in cases where
   there are international arms embargoes against a particular country (like
   Liberia) or where it is illegal to sell arms to a militant group (such as
   the FARC.)  On example of this would be Ukrainian small arms that were on
   paper supposed to go to CA'te d'Ivoire, but that were really transferred
   in violation of UN arms embargoes to Liberia and Sierra Leone. Another
   example of this would be the government of Peru ostensibly purchasing
   thousands of surplus East German assault rifles from Jordan on the white
   arms market but then those rifles slipped into the gray arms world when
   they were dropped at airstrips in the jungles of Colombia for use by the
   FARC instead of being delivered to the Peruvian military.

    

   At the far end of the spectrum is the black arms market where the guns are
   contraband from the get go and all the business is conducted under the
   board. There are no end user certificates and the weapons are smuggled
   covertly. Examples of this would be the smuggling of arms from the Former
   Soviet Union (FSU) and Afghanistan into Europe through places like Kosovo
   and Slovenia, or the smuggling of arms into South America from Asia, the
   FSU and Middle East by Hezbollah and criminal gangs in the Tri-Border
   Region.

    

   Nation states will often use the gray and black arms markets in order to
   support allies, undermine opponents or otherwise pursue their national
   interests. This was clearly revealed in the Iran-Contra scandal of the mid
   1980a**s but Iran-Contra only scratched the surface of the arms smuggling
   that occurred during the Cold War.  Untold tons of military ordnance was
   delivered by the U.S. and the Soviet Union and Cuba to their respective
   allies in Latin America during the Cold War.

   This quantity of materiel shipped into Latin America during the Cold War
   brings up another very important point pertaining to weapons. Unlike
   drugs, which are consumable goods, firearms are durable goods. This means
   that they can be useful for decades and are frequently shipped from
   conflict zone to conflict zone. East German MPiKMS and MPiKM assault
   rifles are still floating around the worlda**s arms markets years after
   the German Democratic Republic ceased to exist.  In fact, visiting an arms
   bazaar in a place like Yemen is like visiting an arms museum. One can
   encounter functional century-old Lee-Enfield and Springfield rifles in a
   rack next to a modern U.S. M-4 rifle or a German HK 93, and those next to
   brand-new, just out of the box, Chinese Type 56 and 81 assault rifles.  

    

   There is often a correlation between arms and drug smuggling. In many
   instances the same routes used to smuggle drugs are also used to smuggle
   arms. In some instances, like the smuggling routes from Central Asia to
   Europe, the flow of guns and drugs flows in the same direction, and they
   are both sold in Western Europe for cash.  In the case of Latin American
   cocaine, the drugs tend to flow in one direction (towards the U.S. and
   Europe) while guns from the U.S. and Russian organized crime groups flow
   in the other direction, and often times the guns are used as whole or
   partial payment for the drugs.

    

   Illegal drugs are not the only thing traded for guns.  During the Cold War
   there was a robust arms-for-sugar trade going on between the Cubans and
   Vietnamese. As a result, Marxist groups all over Latin America were
   furnished with U.S. materiel either captured or left behind when the
   Americans withdrew from the country.  LAW rockets traced to U.S. military
   stocks sent to Vietnam were used in several attacks by Latin American
   Marxist groups. These Vietnam-war vintage weapons still crop up with some
   frequency in Mexico, Colombia and other parts of the region. Cold-war era
   weapons furnished to the likes of the Contras, the Sandinistas, the FMLN
   and URNG in the 1980a**s are also frequently encountered in the region.

    

   After the civil wars ended in places like El Salvador and Guatemala, the
   governments and international community attempted to institute arms
   by-back programs, but those programs were not very successful and most of
   the guns turned in were very old a** the better arms were cached by groups
   or kept by individuals.  These guns have found their way in dribs and
   drabs back onto the black arms market

    

   Well Over 90%

    

   For several years now, Mexican officials have been telling STRATFOR that
   [link http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/mexico_dynamics_gun_trade ] 90
   percent of the arms used by criminals in Mexico come from the U.S.  Last
   month, that  number was echoed in a report by the Government
   Accountability Office (GAO) report on U.S. efforts to Conbat Arms
   Trafficking to Mexico (see external link).

    

     External link http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09709.pdf

     

   The GAO report stated that in 2008, some 30,000 firearms were seized from
   criminals by Mexican officials. Out of these 30,000 firearms, information
   pertaining to 7,200 of the, (24 percent) was submitted to ATF for tracing.
   Of these 7,200 guns, only approximately 4,000 could be traced and of these
   4,000, some 3,480 or 87 percent, were shown to have come from the U.S. 

    

   This means that the 87 percent number comes from the number of weapons
   submitted by the Mexican government to ATF that could be successfully
   traced, and not from the total number of weapons seized by the Mexicans or
   even from the total number of weapons submitted to ATF for tracing. The
   3,480 guns positively traced to the U.S. only equals less than 12 percent
   of the total arms seized in 2008 and less than 48 percent of those
   submitted to the ATF for tracing by the Mexican government.

   From our contact we have information for why this is so... He has before
   told us that Mexican authorities are incapable of properly tracing serial
   numbers and that often ATF uses numbers gathered in the open source. Many
   of these numbers are not serial numbers at all... instead they are model
   numbers or something else.

   Contact was adamant that the only way this could work is if the ATF had an
   actual presence in Mexico itself.

    

   The 87 percent number is not supported by the evidence presented by the
   GAO. In a response to the GAO report that was published as part of the
   report, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security called the GAOa**s use of
   the 87 percent statistic a**misleadinga**.  DHS further noted that
   a**Numerous problems with the data collection and sample population render
   this assertion as unreliable.a** Yes, this is most definitely corroborated
   by our Mexican contact.

    

   Interestingly, when STRATFOR asked a Mexican government official about the
   report in an attempt to get an honest read on the scope of the problem of
   U.S. firearms going to Mexico, the official told us (off the record) that
   the amount of ordnance (guns, grenades, ammunition, etc.) seized by the
   Mexican government that come from the U.S. is a**way over 90 percent.a**  
   With the 87 percent number being dubious, the a**way over 90 percenta**
   claim is really very hard to swallow. 

   Now at STRATFOR, we really dislike it when people attempt to feed us
   disinformation in an attempt to get us to report it to further some
   agenda. Of course such efforts quickly lead us to consider exactly what
   that agenda is, and frequently examining the motives of such people who 
   provides us with more interesting intelligence than the initial report
   itself. In this case it is clear that the motive of the Mexican government
   is simple deflection.

   It is not just deflection. Mexico is trying to establish the concept of
   "shared responsibility". That has been a key phrase that we have heard
   from U.S. officials themselves and from our contact as well. I personally
   think they are angling to get U.S. to feel sorry for them...

   The Mexicans have been criticized by the U.S. for decades over their
   inability to stop the flow of narcotics through their territory. Instead
   of addressing the hard problem and stopping the flow of narcotics, they
   have instead attempted to deflect criticism by blaming the guns proceeding
   from the U.S. for their inability to stop the flow of drugs. This is
   strange because Mexico has been arguing against U.S. arms flow for
   years... this is not something that is new. Sounds a bit like you're
   griping too...

   We strongly suspect that there is a program underway to cherry pick the
   guns provided to the ATF for tracing and that only those guns that are
   likely to be traced back to the U.S. are provided for tracing. Sounds like
   metaphysical intelligence to me... are you sure your sources on the U.S.
   side are not doing the same thing our Mexican soruces are?

    

   We strongly doubt the Mexicans are providing ATF information from the
   RPG-7 rocket launchers, South Korean hand grenades, Israeli, South African
   Belgian, German, Chinese and other foreign weapons that likely have no
   connection to the U.S.  In this way they Mexicans are able to spin the
   arms tracing figures in their favor, which provides them with a ready
   response whenever the U.S. criticizes Mexican counternarcotics efforts.
   Again, unless you have evidence of this... we are doing metaphysical
   intelligence. Our Mexican contact has said repeatedly that without ATF
   presence in Mexico, there is going to be no proper intelligence on serial
   numbers. He has said in a conversation two days ago that Mexico is hoping
   to have something in place where ATF is present in Mexico. It was in an
   insight that you commented on that he was smoking crack.

   Again, from the contact:

   The only really effective way to clamp down on trafficking in arms is to
   institutionalize physical access by ATF agents to Mexico, so they can take
   pictures, and run traces from there.  There are many dangers to this, but
   it is something that is being worked on, and which I expect to see
   completed within the next 12 months, at least de jure.

    

   Reality

    

   Arms, like drugs are a commodity, and as such, the economic laws of supply
   and demand play a big part in global arms trafficking. Ordnance flows from
   places where it is cheap and available to places where it is not. Because
   of this, the a**well over 90 percenta** argument does not make a whole lot
   of economic sense. Wait why? Logically it makes sense that it would flow
   from U.S.... at least the small arms (certainly not the heavy stuff that
   they get from corrupt Mexican cops and army). I mean you cross the border,
   go to a gun show and you get a gun... IT's simple.

    

   Firstly, it must be recognized that while arms sales are restricted in
   Mexico, they do occur and people are able to buy weapons from the
   government. In fact guns in calibers that are very popular in Mexico but
   fairly uncommon in the U.S. (like the .38 Super) are commonly used by
   criminals.    Yup... corroberated by contact.

    

   Secondly at the present time assault rifles are very expensive in the
   United States, as is ammunition. In fact, it is difficult to locate many
   types of assault rifles and ammunition at the present time, though a lucky
   buyer might be able to find a basic stripped down AR-15 for between $850
   and $1100, or and an AK-47 for between $650 and $850. Obviously, a gun
   purchased in the U.S., smuggled into Mexico and sold to a cartel is going
   to carry a premium well above this purchase price. Sure, but you just have
   to cross the border to get it. Also, this does not preclude gun sales
   prior to price inflation.  Now, by way of comparison, a surplus assault
   rifle can be purchased for under $100 on the white arms market, and about
   the same on the black arms market in locations where weapons are abundant.
   That difference in price provides a powerful economic incentive to buy low
   elsewhere and sell high in Mexico.  Indeed, we have seen reports of
   international arms merchants from places like Israel and Belgium, selling
   weapons to the cartels, and that ordnance is coming into Mexico through
   routes other than over the U.S. border.  

    

   You know, a really good way to prove this theory would be to show that
   there is gun flow from Mexico INTO the U.S. That would prove your
   assertion about market dynamics which I am not necessarily sold on.

   At the same time as gun and ammunition prices have spiked in the U.S. the
   profits of the Mexican cartels have plummeted due to increased enforcement
   efforts and inter- and intra- cartel wars.  Many of the cartels are
   hurting for money and have had to resort to kidnapping and other crime in
   order to finance their operations. That means that they will be attempting
   to purchase maximum firepower for the minimum price.

    

   The Bottom Line

    

   STRATFOR believes that the issue of U.S. guns being sent south of the
   border is a serious issue, but we do not believe that U.S. weapons
   represent any where near 90 percent of the cartelsa** weaponry a**
   especially their military-style weapons like fully automatic assault
   rifles, fragmentation grenades and RPGa**s, where the percentage of U.S.
   ordnance is negligible. Yeah, I think that is true as well... definitely
   not the heavy serious stuff. The cartels clearly have contacts with arms
   dealers outside of the U.S. both those who deal in cold war-era stocks of
   arms in Latin America and international arms merchants who can supply arms
   from around the world.

    

   While increased U.S. enforcement efforts will have an impact as the risk
   of being caught outweighs the profit that can be made by selling guns to
   the cartels, we believe that economics (high gun prices and scarce
   ammunition supplies you are overemphesizing this... this is a current
   issue that has nothing to do with last 3-4 years of arms sales though. )
   may play an equally important part in reducing the flow of U.S. guns to
   Mexico IN THE FUTURE (or at least while Obama is the President). The laws
   of supply and demand will ensure that the Mexican cartels get their
   ordnance in the most price effective way, and with the current gun and
   ammunition supply issues in the U.S. that will likely mean that an even
   greater amount of that supply will come from outside the U.S. via the gray
   and black arms markets.

    
   Scott Stewart
   STRATFOR
   Office: 814 967 4046
   Cell: 814 573 8297
   scott.stewart@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
    
</description>
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    <releasedate>2012-08-22 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1677524_re-s-weekly-for-comment-mexico-economics-and-the-arms-trade-.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1677951</id>
    <title>Re: ANALYSIS FOR COMMENT - BULGARIA/RUSSIA: Anti-Russian Bulgaria?
 Don't get your hopes up!
</title>
    <description>   That spat was resolved exactly the same way that any serious Borisov move
   will be... Moscow Mayor, head of the Moscow mob, and apparently Borisov's
   close personal friend (which just goes to prove my point), Yuri Luzhkov
   sat down with Parvanov and told him he would have Russian OC set Sofia
   ablaze if Parvanov messed around...

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Korena Zucha" &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, July 13, 2009 4:06:26 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re: ANALYSIS FOR COMMENT - BULGARIA/RUSSIA: Anti-Russian
   Bulgaria? Don't get your hopes up!

   Marko Papic wrote:

     I had to cut out a LOT of info we have on Borisov simply because I am
     not sure which bits could get us into legal trouble. Nonetheless, a lot
     of that stuff is also weedy, so I think a broader geopolitical
     discussion is not out of place.

     Newly elected Prime Minister of Bulgaria, Boyko Borisov, has in a letter
     on July 13 asked the Economy and Energy Minister Petar Dimitrov to
     temporarily freeze the construction of the Belene nuclear power plant
     and the development of the South Stream natural gas pipeline project.
     Borisov claimed in the letter that the Bulgarian state owned companies
     involved in the two projects were not taking into account the economic
     crisis in their operations, hinting at financial malfeasance. Both the
     Belene nuclear power plant and the South Stream project are being
     developed in cooperation with Russian state owned enterprises,
     Atomstroyexport and Gazprom respectively.

     Russian influence in Bulgaria has always been considered as robust and
     the government of outgoing prime minister Sergei Stanishev did nothing
     to dispel that notion, despite Sofiaa**s entry into the EU in 2007 under
     his leadership and the fact that it had been a member of NATO since
     2004. Bulgariaa**s relatively eager participation in the South Stream
     project a** Russian alternative to the EUa**s Nabucco project a** has
     been lauded as an example of the close collaboration between Moscow and
     Sofia and proof of Bulgariaa**s a**Trojan Horsea** status within the
     Western Alliance. What about when Bulgarian Presdent Parvanov said in
     April that the Bulgarian pipeline network is not an a**extensiona** of
     Russiaa**s networks, and that Russian state natural gas company Gazprom
     should respect Bulgariaa**s sovereignty?
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090427_russia_bulgaria_lingering_tensions

     Borisova**s actions, one of his first as incoming prime minister, to
     freeze progress on the two major Russian projects within Bulgaria seem
     to suggest that he will stick to his campaign promise to play by a**EU
     rulesa** on energy policy and reverse his opponenta**s policies of
     cozying up to Russia. He also campaigned that he would not be beholden
     to Moscow and that he would treat Russia just like any other power, thus
     ending the special relationship enjoyed by Sofia and Moscow under
     Stanisheva**s government.

     However, the warm relations between Bulgaria and Russia are not a modern
     phenomenon, nor are they beholden to any particular governmenta**s
     policies. The relationship is rooted in geopolitics and has withstood
     the test of time from the 19th Century until today.

     Bulgaria owes its independence from the Ottoman Empire in late 19th
     Century to Russia which fought the Russo-Turkish War with the intent of
     creating a a**Greater Bulgariaa** with sea access in both the Black Sea
     and the Aegean Sea. The Russian plan for an enlarged Bulgaria, which
     would have given Russia friendly ports in the Mediterranean, backfired
     by alarming Western powers who were forced to intervene, albeit
     diplomatically, during the 1878 Berlin Congress and thus greatly reduced
     Bulgariaa**s territory.

     Russia and Bulgaria continued to have a strong relationship throughout
     the 20th Century despite Bulgariaa**s decision to side with the Central
     Powers in the First World War and subsequently the Axis in the Second.
     As an example of its strong link to Moscow, Bulgaria refused to join the
     attack against the Soviet Union despite being officially allied with
     Nazi Germany. The subsequent communist period in Bulgaria, while not
     remembered with nostalgia, does not elicit the same kind of knee jerk
     anti-Russian feelings as in much the rest of Central and Eastern Europe.
     Bulgaria was a loyal member of the Soviet Bloc with no uprisings against
     Moscowa**s regional hegemony.

     The oft stated reason for Bulgariaa**s affinity towards Russia are the
     cultural and religious ties between the two countries and these
     certainly work well to grease the wheels of the relationship.  However,
     in reality, Bulgariaa**s interests are rooted in its geopolitical
     circumstances. Surrounded by entities who have historically been
     stronger and sometimes outright aggressive towards it -- namely
     Turkey/Ottoman Empire to the South, Romania to the north and
     Yugoslavia/Serbia to the West, Bulgaria has often relied on Russia to
     play the role of its protector and champion in the region.  Meanwhile,
     from the Russian perspective, Bulgaria affords it a foothold in the
     Balkans, much more reliable than the often too independently minded
     Serbia and Romania, both of which had plans of their own to become
     regional hegemons. 

     Borisova**s initial moves against Russian projects in Bulgaria should
     therefore not be taken to signal a fundamental shift in Bulgariaa**s
     relations with Russia. Borisova**s government may temper some of the
     overt signs of this strong relationship, but his move to freeze progress
     on South Stream and the Belene power plant is more likely about rooting
     out his predecessora**s control of those lucrative projects than about
     fundamentally moving Bulgaria away from Russia.  Once Borisov feels that
     he and his power base are sufficiently in control of all aspects of the
     Sofia-Moscow relationship, it is very likely that Bulgaria will continue
     to be one of Russia's strongest allies within the EU and NATO.
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1677951_re-analysis-for-comment-bulgaria-russia-anti-russian.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1680462</id>
    <title>Re: [Eurasia] G3 - GERMANY - Berlin asks NATO partners to keep
 quiet on deadly bombing
</title>
    <description>   read piece from yesterday to understand level of US criticism.

   as for france, berlin takes that differently, particularly when context of
   us-german relations is considered.

   not saying she is not miffed at french

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Eugene Chausovsky" &lt;eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "EurAsia AOR" &lt;eurasia@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 8:08:56 AM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re: [Eurasia] G3 - GERMANY - Berlin asks NATO partners to keep
   quiet on deadly bombing

   And France's criticism wasn't?

   Marko Papic wrote:

     yeah but US allowed its criticism to go public

     ----- Original Message -----
     From: "Eugene Chausovsky" &lt;eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "EurAsia AOR" &lt;eurasia@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 8:05:32 AM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
     Subject: Re: [Eurasia] G3 - GERMANY - Berlin asks NATO partners to keep
     quiet on deadly bombing

     Ooh Merkel is pissed....but I don't think this is all directed at the
     US. Kouchner was pretty vocal in denouncing the airstrike as well, its
     just that Merkel is super sensitive right now as she tries to figure out
     her coalition situation ahead of the election.

     Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

       Berlin asks NATO partners to keep quiet on deadly bombing

       Published: 11 Sep 09 09:00 CET
       Online: http://www.thelocal.de/national/20090911-21857.html

       The German government has issued a round of formal diplomatic protests
       to fellow NATO countries, asking them to refrain from criticising a
       controversial air strike called by the Bundeswehr in Afghanistan last
       week.

       The Foreign Ministry told daily Financial Times Deutschland on Friday
       that German ambassadors had issued the demarches in NATO allied
       countries. The formal protests asked that officials wait until the
       NATO probe of the incident had concluded before commenting on the
       deadly bombing.

       In Paris the protest was not well-received, the paper said.

       a**What should a minister say if such an attack kills 80 and there are
       civilians among them? Nothing?a** an unnamed diplomat told the paper.

       On Tuesday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel rejected
       a**prejudgementa** of the air strike in a speech to parliament.

       Merkel assured the bombing of two fuel trucks in the northern part of
       the country last Friday would be thoroughly investigated amid concerns
       it caused scores of civilian casualties.

       She lashed out at widespread criticism by many of Germanya**s closes
       allies before NATO's International Security Assistance Force (ISAF)
       completed its investigation of the incident.

       a**I wona**t tolerate that either here at home or abroad,a** she said.

       The German government and military have faced immense pressure in
       recent days after Col. Georg Klein called in NATO air support to
       destroy two fuel tankers hijacked by the Taliban near the Afghan city
       of Kunduz. Berlin at first contended that only Islamist insurgents had
       been killed in the air strike, but ISAF announced shortly after
       Merkel's speech that there had been an unspecified number of civilian
       victims.

       French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner has described the strike as a
       "big mistake" while Afghan President Hamid Karzai blasted the German
       commander's call in an interview with French daily Le Figaro: "What an
       error of judgement!"

       http://www.thelocal.de/national/20090911-21857.html

        
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-08 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1680462_re-eurasia-g3-germany-berlin-asks-nato-partners-to-keep.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1680597</id>
    <title>Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade
</title>
    <description>   Can we confirm this with our ATF sources?

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 4:34:59 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   It's still metaphysical intelligence...

   Also, looks to me like they want ATF more deeply involved... how to we
   process that?

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 4:31:53 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   The Mexicans certainly do have the capability to trace the guns that are
   sold through UCAM.
    
   And they may be messed up, but they know the US does not make RPG 7
   rockets or South Korean frag grenades.
    
   AK varients imported to the US for sale also bear distinctive markings and
   features.
    
    
    
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Tuesday, July 07, 2009 4:46 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade
   Also, another logical problem with the argument of Mexico planting guns to
   the U.S. is that that would mean that they have some ability to trace the
   serial numbers first themselves. But they obviously don't have that
   capacity.

   Although, they could do it by make... Sort of like send the U.S. just the
   AR-15s, since obviously those are manufactured in the U.S. To tell you the
   truth, all of that sounds pretty organized for a fucked up place like
   Mexico.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 3:42:55 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   These are all good points...

   But the story itself is a strange choice to include to back up your
   argument... Fromt he story itself:

   But the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, which handles
   the U.S. investigations, is at the mercy of local Mexican police for the
   amount and quality of the information.

   "Many of these rural municipalities that may come into a gun seizure ...
   may not even know anything about tracing guns," ATF spokesman Thomas
   Mangan said.

   That is almost verbatim what MX1 is saying. No?

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 3:25:47 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   But I simply don't buy the logic that the Mexicans are too inept to pull
   the serial numbers off of recovered guns.  ATF has been in the country
   since the 1980's and has conducted hundreds of classes on identification,
   plus the Mexican military has weapons specialists in dedicated weapons
   storage facilities that are fully capable of copying down serial numbers: 
    
   http://abcnews.go.com/International/WireStory?id=7518874&amp;page=1
    
   The fact that the Mexican government is only turning over 7200 serial
   numbers a year to the US for tracing is incredible -- and very meaningful
   to a curious analyst.
    
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Tuesday, July 07, 2009 4:16 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade
   Definitely... plus if you could seal the border forever... and stop the
   flow of guns (magically), there are still guns that are in mexico.

   That is why ATF needs to be INSIDE there... which is what MX1 was saying.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 3:13:21 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   Look back at this piece.
    
   http://www.stratfor.com/tracing_mexicos_guns
    
   There are certain classes of weapons that the cartels obtain from the U.S.
   but certain other classes that they do not.
    
   In recent years we are seeing the cartel enforcer groups move more toward
   what I call the class 3 weapons - assault rifles, grenades and RPGs -- as
   the cartel wars have heated up.
    
   Even if they U.S. border were hermitically sealed this afternoon, the
   cartels would still be able to get guns.
    
    
    
    
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Tuesday, July 07, 2009 4:03 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade
   Also, note that this is not all about price. Price only matters in a free
   market ceteris paribus theoretical. I can't think of something that is
   more not governed by free market than gun sales. I don't doubt that heavy
   weapons and grenades do not come from the U.S. That is just Mex gov't
   propaganda. But why on earth would all the other stuff come from anywhere
   else, regardless of the price, when you can cross the border and buy it in
   the U.S.

   Also, are you factoring transportation and cost of security for weapons
   shipped from China or Asia? You can't just look at face value price when
   you need to factor a number of other actors. It just seems ludicrous to me
   that the cartels would get light arms from anywhere else.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 2:59:44 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   That's good... definitely a link to add to it.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 2:57:39 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   You know, a really good way to prove this theory would be to show that
   there is gun flow from Mexico INTO the U.S. That would prove your
   assertion about market dynamics which I am not necessarily sold on.

   Here you go.  We have a documented flow of grenades into the US from MX.

    

   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090210_mexico_u_s_new_weapon_cartel_arsenal

    

   Guns are still more expensive in MX than in the US but there are other
   places where they are cheaper than either the US or MX.

    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Tuesday, July 07, 2009 3:50 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade
   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 2:07:05 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   I didn't intend to get so deeply into the economic end of things when I
   began writing (this was supposed to be essentially  a primer on how
   international arms markets work) but when I began to think about the
   current gun and ammo shortages in the U.S. I kind of had an epiphany... 
   (I've been trying to buy a block of .22 rounds for weeks now. The guy
   at Wal-mart told me he got a shipment of .22s in last week and they sold
   out in 3 hours.)   This also has to have an impact on the cartels.

    

    

    

    

    

    

   Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

    

   On June 26, the small town of Apaseo el Alto, Guanajuato state, Mexico,
   was the scene of a [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090629_mexico_security_memo_june_29_2009
   ]  brief but deadly firefight between members of Los Zetas and federal and
   local security forces.  The engagement began when a joint patrol of
   Mexican soldiers and law enforcement officers responded to a report of
   heavily armed men at a suspected drug safe-house. When the patrol arrived,
   a 20 minute firefight erupted between the security forces and gunmen in
   the house, as well as several suspects in two vehicles that threw
   fragmentation grenades as they attempted to escape.

   When the shooting stopped, twelve gunmen were dead and twelve had been
   taken into custody, while several soldiers and police were reported
   wounded. At least half the detained suspects admitted to being members of
   Los Zetas. 

   When authorities examined the house they discovered a pit that contained
   the remains of an undetermined number of people (perhaps 14 or 15) who are
   believed to have been executed and then burned beyond recognition by Los
   Zetas.  The house also contained a large cache of weapons, including
   assault rifles and fragmentation grenades. Such [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/mexico_coming_fight_control_matamoros ] military
   ordnance is frequently used by Los Zetas and the enforcers who work for
   their rival cartels.

   STRATFOR has been [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/theme/tracking_mexicos_drug_cartels ] closely
   following the cartel violence in Mexico for several years now, and
   certainly the events that transpired in Apaseo el Alto are by no means
   unique. It is not uncommon for the Mexican authorities to engage in large
   firefights with cartel groups, encounter mass graves or [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20081112_worrying_signs_border_raids ]
   recover large caches of arms.  The recovery of these weapons does,
   however, provide an opportunity to once again focus on the dynamics of
   Mexicoa**s arms trade.

    

   White Black and Shades of Gray

    

   Before we get down in the weeds in Mexicoa**s arms flow, leta**s do
   something just a little different and first take a brief look at how arms
   trafficking works on a larger global and regional scale. Doing so will
   help better illustrate how the arms trafficking in Mexico fits into
   these broader patterns.

    

   When analysts examine arms sales they look at three general categories,
   the white arms, market, the gray arms market and the black arms market.
   The white arms market is the totally legal, above board transfer of
   weapons in accordance with the national laws of the parties involved and
   international treaties or restrictions. The parties in a white arms deal
   will file the proper paperwork to include end-user certificates noting
   what is being sold who is selling it and who it is going to.  There is an
   understanding that the receiving party does not intend to transfer the
   weapons to a third party. So for example, if the Mexican Army wants to buy
   an order of assault rifles from German arms maker Heckler and Koch, it
   places the order with the company and fills out all the required
   paperwork, to include getting permission for the sale from the German
   government.     

    

   Now, the white arms market can be deceived and manipulated, and when this
   happens, we get the gray market a** literally white arms that are shifted
   into the hands of someone other than the purported recipient. On of the
   classic ways to do this is to either falsify an end user certificate or to
   bribe an official in a third country to sign an end user certificate but
   then allow a shipment of arms to pass through a country en route to a
   third location. This type of transaction is frequently used in cases where
   there are international arms embargoes against a particular country (like
   Liberia) or where it is illegal to sell arms to a militant group (such as
   the FARC.)  On example of this would be Ukrainian small arms that were on
   paper supposed to go to CA'te d'Ivoire, but that were really transferred
   in violation of UN arms embargoes to Liberia and Sierra Leone. Another
   example of this would be the government of Peru ostensibly purchasing
   thousands of surplus East German assault rifles from Jordan on the white
   arms market but then those rifles slipped into the gray arms world when
   they were dropped at airstrips in the jungles of Colombia for use by the
   FARC instead of being delivered to the Peruvian military.

    

   At the far end of the spectrum is the black arms market where the guns are
   contraband from the get go and all the business is conducted under the
   board. There are no end user certificates and the weapons are smuggled
   covertly. Examples of this would be the smuggling of arms from the Former
   Soviet Union (FSU) and Afghanistan into Europe through places like Kosovo
   and Slovenia, or the smuggling of arms into South America from Asia, the
   FSU and Middle East by Hezbollah and criminal gangs in the Tri-Border
   Region.

    

   Nation states will often use the gray and black arms markets in order to
   support allies, undermine opponents or otherwise pursue their national
   interests. This was clearly revealed in the Iran-Contra scandal of the mid
   1980a**s but Iran-Contra only scratched the surface of the arms smuggling
   that occurred during the Cold War.  Untold tons of military ordnance was
   delivered by the U.S. and the Soviet Union and Cuba to their respective
   allies in Latin America during the Cold War.

   This quantity of materiel shipped into Latin America during the Cold War
   brings up another very important point pertaining to weapons. Unlike
   drugs, which are consumable goods, firearms are durable goods. This means
   that they can be useful for decades and are frequently shipped from
   conflict zone to conflict zone. East German MPiKMS and MPiKM assault
   rifles are still floating around the worlda**s arms markets years after
   the German Democratic Republic ceased to exist.  In fact, visiting an arms
   bazaar in a place like Yemen is like visiting an arms museum. One can
   encounter functional century-old Lee-Enfield and Springfield rifles in a
   rack next to a modern U.S. M-4 rifle or a German HK 93, and those next to
   brand-new, just out of the box, Chinese Type 56 and 81 assault rifles.  

    

   There is often a correlation between arms and drug smuggling. In many
   instances the same routes used to smuggle drugs are also used to smuggle
   arms. In some instances, like the smuggling routes from Central Asia to
   Europe, the flow of guns and drugs flows in the same direction, and they
   are both sold in Western Europe for cash.  In the case of Latin American
   cocaine, the drugs tend to flow in one direction (towards the U.S. and
   Europe) while guns from the U.S. and Russian organized crime groups flow
   in the other direction, and often times the guns are used as whole or
   partial payment for the drugs.

    

   Illegal drugs are not the only thing traded for guns.  During the Cold War
   there was a robust arms-for-sugar trade going on between the Cubans and
   Vietnamese. As a result, Marxist groups all over Latin America were
   furnished with U.S. materiel either captured or left behind when the
   Americans withdrew from the country.  LAW rockets traced to U.S. military
   stocks sent to Vietnam were used in several attacks by Latin American
   Marxist groups. These Vietnam-war vintage weapons still crop up with some
   frequency in Mexico, Colombia and other parts of the region. Cold-war era
   weapons furnished to the likes of the Contras, the Sandinistas, the FMLN
   and URNG in the 1980a**s are also frequently encountered in the region.

    

   After the civil wars ended in places like El Salvador and Guatemala, the
   governments and international community attempted to institute arms
   by-back programs, but those programs were not very successful and most of
   the guns turned in were very old a** the better arms were cached by groups
   or kept by individuals.  These guns have found their way in dribs and
   drabs back onto the black arms market

    

   Well Over 90%

    

   For several years now, Mexican officials have been telling STRATFOR that
   [link http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/mexico_dynamics_gun_trade ] 90
   percent of the arms used by criminals in Mexico come from the U.S.  Last
   month, that  number was echoed in a report by the Government
   Accountability Office (GAO) report on U.S. efforts to Conbat Arms
   Trafficking to Mexico (see external link).

    

     External link http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09709.pdf

     

   The GAO report stated that in 2008, some 30,000 firearms were seized from
   criminals by Mexican officials. Out of these 30,000 firearms, information
   pertaining to 7,200 of the, (24 percent) was submitted to ATF for tracing.
   Of these 7,200 guns, only approximately 4,000 could be traced and of these
   4,000, some 3,480 or 87 percent, were shown to have come from the U.S. 

    

   This means that the 87 percent number comes from the number of weapons
   submitted by the Mexican government to ATF that could be successfully
   traced, and not from the total number of weapons seized by the Mexicans or
   even from the total number of weapons submitted to ATF for tracing. The
   3,480 guns positively traced to the U.S. only equals less than 12 percent
   of the total arms seized in 2008 and less than 48 percent of those
   submitted to the ATF for tracing by the Mexican government.

   From our contact we have information for why this is so... He has before
   told us that Mexican authorities are incapable of properly tracing serial
   numbers and that often ATF uses numbers gathered in the open source. Many
   of these numbers are not serial numbers at all... instead they are model
   numbers or something else.

   Contact was adamant that the only way this could work is if the ATF had an
   actual presence in Mexico itself.

    

   The 87 percent number is not supported by the evidence presented by the
   GAO. In a response to the GAO report that was published as part of the
   report, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security called the GAOa**s use of
   the 87 percent statistic a**misleadinga**.  DHS further noted that
   a**Numerous problems with the data collection and sample population render
   this assertion as unreliable.a** Yes, this is most definitely corroborated
   by our Mexican contact.

    

   Interestingly, when STRATFOR asked a Mexican government official about the
   report in an attempt to get an honest read on the scope of the problem of
   U.S. firearms going to Mexico, the official told us (off the record) that
   the amount of ordnance (guns, grenades, ammunition, etc.) seized by the
   Mexican government that come from the U.S. is a**way over 90 percent.a**  
   With the 87 percent number being dubious, the a**way over 90 percenta**
   claim is really very hard to swallow. 

   Now at STRATFOR, we really dislike it when people attempt to feed us
   disinformation in an attempt to get us to report it to further some
   agenda. Of course such efforts quickly lead us to consider exactly what
   that agenda is, and frequently examining the motives of such people who 
   provides us with more interesting intelligence than the initial report
   itself. In this case it is clear that the motive of the Mexican government
   is simple deflection.

   It is not just deflection. Mexico is trying to establish the concept of
   "shared responsibility". That has been a key phrase that we have heard
   from U.S. officials themselves and from our contact as well. I personally
   think they are angling to get U.S. to feel sorry for them...

   The Mexicans have been criticized by the U.S. for decades over their
   inability to stop the flow of narcotics through their territory. Instead
   of addressing the hard problem and stopping the flow of narcotics, they
   have instead attempted to deflect criticism by blaming the guns proceeding
   from the U.S. for their inability to stop the flow of drugs. This is
   strange because Mexico has been arguing against U.S. arms flow for
   years... this is not something that is new. Sounds a bit like you're
   griping too...

   We strongly suspect that there is a program underway to cherry pick the
   guns provided to the ATF for tracing and that only those guns that are
   likely to be traced back to the U.S. are provided for tracing. Sounds like
   metaphysical intelligence to me... are you sure your sources on the U.S.
   side are not doing the same thing our Mexican soruces are?

    

   We strongly doubt the Mexicans are providing ATF information from the
   RPG-7 rocket launchers, South Korean hand grenades, Israeli, South African
   Belgian, German, Chinese and other foreign weapons that likely have no
   connection to the U.S.  In this way they Mexicans are able to spin the
   arms tracing figures in their favor, which provides them with a ready
   response whenever the U.S. criticizes Mexican counternarcotics efforts.
   Again, unless you have evidence of this... we are doing metaphysical
   intelligence. Our Mexican contact has said repeatedly that without ATF
   presence in Mexico, there is going to be no proper intelligence on serial
   numbers. He has said in a conversation two days ago that Mexico is hoping
   to have something in place where ATF is present in Mexico. It was in an
   insight that you commented on that he was smoking crack.

   Again, from the contact:

   The only really effective way to clamp down on trafficking in arms is to
   institutionalize physical access by ATF agents to Mexico, so they can take
   pictures, and run traces from there.  There are many dangers to this, but
   it is something that is being worked on, and which I expect to see
   completed within the next 12 months, at least de jure.

    

   Reality

    

   Arms, like drugs are a commodity, and as such, the economic laws of supply
   and demand play a big part in global arms trafficking. Ordnance flows from
   places where it is cheap and available to places where it is not. Because
   of this, the a**well over 90 percenta** argument does not make a whole lot
   of economic sense. Wait why? Logically it makes sense that it would flow
   from U.S.... at least the small arms (certainly not the heavy stuff that
   they get from corrupt Mexican cops and army). I mean you cross the border,
   go to a gun show and you get a gun... IT's simple.

    

   Firstly, it must be recognized that while arms sales are restricted in
   Mexico, they do occur and people are able to buy weapons from the
   government. In fact guns in calibers that are very popular in Mexico but
   fairly uncommon in the U.S. (like the .38 Super) are commonly used by
   criminals.    Yup... corroberated by contact.

    

   Secondly at the present time assault rifles are very expensive in the
   United States, as is ammunition. In fact, it is difficult to locate many
   types of assault rifles and ammunition at the present time, though a lucky
   buyer might be able to find a basic stripped down AR-15 for between $850
   and $1100, or and an AK-47 for between $650 and $850. Obviously, a gun
   purchased in the U.S., smuggled into Mexico and sold to a cartel is going
   to carry a premium well above this purchase price. Sure, but you just have
   to cross the border to get it. Also, this does not preclude gun sales
   prior to price inflation.  Now, by way of comparison, a surplus assault
   rifle can be purchased for under $100 on the white arms market, and about
   the same on the black arms market in locations where weapons are abundant.
   That difference in price provides a powerful economic incentive to buy low
   elsewhere and sell high in Mexico.  Indeed, we have seen reports of
   international arms merchants from places like Israel and Belgium, selling
   weapons to the cartels, and that ordnance is coming into Mexico through
   routes other than over the U.S. border.  

    

   You know, a really good way to prove this theory would be to show that
   there is gun flow from Mexico INTO the U.S. That would prove your
   assertion about market dynamics which I am not necessarily sold on.

   At the same time as gun and ammunition prices have spiked in the U.S. the
   profits of the Mexican cartels have plummeted due to increased enforcement
   efforts and inter- and intra- cartel wars.  Many of the cartels are
   hurting for money and have had to resort to kidnapping and other crime in
   order to finance their operations. That means that they will be attempting
   to purchase maximum firepower for the minimum price.

    

   The Bottom Line

    

   STRATFOR believes that the issue of U.S. guns being sent south of the
   border is a serious issue, but we do not believe that U.S. weapons
   represent any where near 90 percent of the cartelsa** weaponry a**
   especially their military-style weapons like fully automatic assault
   rifles, fragmentation grenades and RPGa**s, where the percentage of U.S.
   ordnance is negligible. Yeah, I think that is true as well... definitely
   not the heavy serious stuff. The cartels clearly have contacts with arms
   dealers outside of the U.S. both those who deal in cold war-era stocks of
   arms in Latin America and international arms merchants who can supply arms
   from around the world.

    

   While increased U.S. enforcement efforts will have an impact as the risk
   of being caught outweighs the profit that can be made by selling guns to
   the cartels, we believe that economics (high gun prices and scarce
   ammunition supplies you are overemphesizing this... this is a current
   issue that has nothing to do with last 3-4 years of arms sales though. )
   may play an equally important part in reducing the flow of U.S. guns to
   Mexico IN THE FUTURE (or at least while Obama is the President). The laws
   of supply and demand will ensure that the Mexican cartels get their
   ordnance in the most price effective way, and with the current gun and
   ammunition supply issues in the U.S. that will likely mean that an even
   greater amount of that supply will come from outside the U.S. via the gray
   and black arms markets.

    
   Scott Stewart
   STRATFOR
   Office: 814 967 4046
   Cell: 814 573 8297
   scott.stewart@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
    
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1680597_re-s-weekly-for-comment-mexico-economics-and-the-arms-trade-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1681491</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - France's change of heart
</title>
    <description>   Can we confirm they are talking about Total? Don't forget the EDF and GDF
   deals with SouthStream, NorthStream respectively... Those deals happened
   pretty close to the Kouchner statement to be coincidence... It's just too
   much at the same time, it reeks of coordination.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Kamran Bokhari" &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Lauren Goodrich" &lt;goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;, "Aaron Colvin"
   &lt;aaron.colvin@stratfor.com&gt;, "Secure List" &lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;, "George
   Friedman" &lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;, "Eugene Chausovsky"
   &lt;eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com&gt;, "Catherine Durbin"
   &lt;catherine.durbin@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, September 22, 2009 11:02:07 AM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: INSIGHT - France's change of heart

   Gotcha.

    

   From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Tuesday, September 22, 2009 11:42 AM
   To: Kamran Bokhari
   Cc: 'Reva Bhalla'; 'Aaron Colvin'; 'Secure List'; 'George Friedman';
   'Eugene Chausovsky'; 'Catherine Durbin'
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - France's change of heart

    

   Monster = Total ... all the energy giants are called monsters in Russia,
   it is a joke that makes no sense

   Kamran Bokhari wrote:

   Monster= Sarko?

    

   From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Tuesday, September 22, 2009 11:03 AM
   To: Reva Bhalla
   Cc: Aaron Colvin; Secure List; George Friedman; Eugene Chausovsky;
   Catherine Durbin
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - France's change of heart

    

   not yet

   Reva Bhalla wrote:

   but do we know what Russia did to pressure Total?

    

   On Sep 22, 2009, at 10:00 AM, Aaron Colvin wrote:

   **decided to keep my entire BB conversation on this, so you could see my
   questions.

   CODE: RU108
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Moscow
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: senior at Putina**s think-group
   SOURCES LEVEL: high
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   DISSEMINATION: Secure, George, Eugene, Catherine
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
    
   LG: The French seem to have a change of heart today in continuing their
   cheerleading of the sanctions. Know what changed their heart?
    
   RU108: They had some nice conversations this week.
    
   LG: Putin set them straight?
    
   RU108: Yes. And their own monster doesna**t want to be part of the US
   plans.
    
   LG: So Total also pressuring Sarko?
    
   RU108: We had a nice chat with them too. Yachts are good for that sort of
   thing.
    
   LG: Ah, got it. So ya**all got to both Paris and Total.
    
   RU108: It isna**t absolute. They want to be part of this moment. But they
   are not blindly following anymore.
    
   LG: So France is weighing all its options right now.
    
   RU108: Your leader has built a house of cards.
    
    
    
    

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

    

    

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

    

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1681491_re-insight-france-s-change-of-heart-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>catherine.durbin@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>aaron.colvin@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1681746</id>
    <title>Re: Assange is off the hook...
</title>
    <description>   If it really matters I can look in to it, but from what I am hearing that
   is not the case. 
   That's not to say that my friend is foolproof either. She knows nothing of
   law or politics, she just knows the girl in question and follows the
   news. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 12:57:59 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   It is about rape. They asked him to use a condom, but he apparently likes
   unprotected sex.

   Sweden has very low threshold for what constitutes rape by the way,
   according to a lawyer friend.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Chris Farnham" &lt;chris.farnham@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 10:42:16 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   Is it possible to revoke some one's citizenship on the grounds of them
   being a total dickhead? 
   I don't care about the other leaks but the ones he has made that
   potentially damage Australian interests upset me. 
   If I thought I could switch this dickhead off without getting done I don't
   think I'd have too much of a problem.
   BTW, close family friend in Sweden who knows the girl that is pressing
   charges tells me that there is absolutely nothing behind it other than
   prosecutors that are looking to make a name for themselves. My friend
   speaks rather disparagingly about the girl who is claiming molestation. I
   also think the whole rape thing is incorrect for if I remember correctly
   rape was never the charge. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 12:23:03 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   What a douche.

   And I just want to be clear here... I have no problem with the leaks. I
   think they're great. And I think it may be good on some level to have
   stuff like this come out once in a while. What I can't stand is A) his ego
   trip and B) his clear anti-Americanism. Take the time to read the intro to
   Cablegate when you get the chance. This guy hates America more than OBL.

   What I love, however, is how nobody in the U.S. is mad about the cables.
   Hell, I have a better opinion of State Department diplomats now than I did
   before the cables. They actually said a few smart things here and there. I
   actually gave them a tip of my hat.

   I want to see him try to take on the Russians. He'd be going bald in an
   Iceland hospital within days.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 10:11:39 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   should we change our Stratfor motto now?
   Predictive, insightful intelligence...in a post-Cablegate world.
   On Dec 5, 2010, at 10:05 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

     This guy needs to take pills for his ego:

      He suggested, not for the first time, that he believes his document
      service has had a profound effect on world history: a**I believe
      geopolitics will be separated into pre- and post-Cablegate phases.a**

     Also, I have a question about this part (this is Assange's lawyer saying
     how Wikileaks would release full versions of all files -- including
     names of spies, etc. -- if harmed):

      WikiLeaks, Mr. Stephens said, has a**been subject to cyberattacks and
      censorship around the world and they need to protect themselves ... This
      is what they believe to be a thermonuclear device in the information
      age.a**

     Let's say the following scenario happens. Assange is arrested and
     extradicted to Sweden to face rape charges. Wikileaks releases the
     password to the insurance files. Would he not then be directly
     endangering U.S. and other country intelligence professionals? Would it
     not then be possible to prosecute him for espionage? 

     -- 
     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
     Marko Papic
     Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
     STRATFOR
     700 Lavaca Street - 900
     Austin, Texas
     78701 USA
     P: + 1-512-744-4094
     marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-06 06:01:04</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1681746_re-assange-is-off-the-hook-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1683919</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT BATCH 1
</title>
    <description>   Glad you like it!

   Thaere is some cool stuff i there..

   By the way, did you like the story the Belarusssians told me? About
   children and tanks?

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Eugene Chausovsky" &lt;eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Friday, October 2, 2009 2:02:28 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT BATCH 1

   Wow, this is some interesting stuff...the Sanader bit is crazy (though
   expected).

   Marko Papic wrote:

       ------------------------------------------------------------------

     Subject:                                                                 
     INSIGHT - CROATIAN MP RESIGNS                                            
     From:                                                                    
     Marko Papic &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;                                   
     Date:                                                                    
     Thu, 17 Sep 2009 18:23:53 -0500 (CDT)                                    
     To:                                                                      
     secure &lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;                                             

     To:                                                                      
     secure &lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;                                             

     SOURCE CODE: SW501 (SW501 is a very well connected Swedish MEP with
     extremely close links to both the FM Carl Bildt -- his closest ally
     basically -- and the Balkans).
     PUBLICATION: No
     ATTRIBUTION:
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: NA
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: NA
     SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:
     SPECIAL HANDLING: Secure
     SOURCE HANDLER: Marko

     Source tells us that Ivo Sanader, Croatian PM, resigned because of OC.
     Basically, he had some deal going on with the Ploce port, that is where
     Croatia is supposed to build an LNG terminal. He basically got in good
     with the OC and they told him that he had a choice to either retire from
     politics, or else they'd start killing off his family.

     He followed their orders.

     Note that I have been saying (and writing in analyses) that Croatia is
     absolutely run by OC. The country is stuffed to the brim with OC. The
     problem is that the Yugoslav Civil Wars had a serious effect on the
     entire region, allowing war profiteers to essentially continue running
     OC activities after the war. Serbia also has OC, but it is not as
     powerful as Croatia's because the assassination of Djindjic gave the
     state the impetus to clean most of the really powerful OC elements off.

       ------------------------------------------------------------------

     Subject:                                                                 
     INSIGHT - SLOVENIA/CROATIA: How they made up                             
     From:                                                                    
     Marko Papic &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;                                   
     Date:                                                                    
     Thu, 17 Sep 2009 19:19:14 -0500 (CDT)                                    
     To:                                                                      
     secure &lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;                                             

     To:                                                                      
     secure &lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;                                             

     SOURCE CODE: SW501 (SW501 is a very well connected Swedish MEP with
     extremely close links to both the FM Carl Bildt -- his closest ally
     basically -- and the Balkans).
     PUBLICATION: No
     ATTRIBUTION:
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: NA
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: NA
     SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:
     SPECIAL HANDLING: Secure
     SOURCE HANDLER: Marko
     According to the Swedish MEP who essentially runs all the Balkan stuff
     for Swedish FM, the key issue for continuing enlargement has been
     separating the Turkish accession process from the rest of the Balkans.
     Bildt has worked VERY hard on this issue, he essentially invited Iceland
     and gave them a green light precisely to illustrate to Germany and
     France that there is Turkish enlargement and then there is OTHER kind of
     enlargement. So the Iceland move was key.

     Once Iceland "green light" convinced Germany and France that this is
     possible to do, Berlin put pressure on Slovenia to let Croatia have its
     chance. This was also confirmed by CRO501 (the Croatian Ambassador to
     EU). He also said that Croatia had already offered to Slovenia what
     Zagreb gave them on Monday, so that it really did come down to the
     German pressure.

     Swedish MEP did say that both in Croatia and Macedonia's case, the
     bilateral disputes with Slovenia and Greece (respectively) play a very
     key role in allowing Zagreb and Skoplje to delay. The point is that on
     issues that Croatia and Macedonia don't want to integrate with the EU,
     they can drag their feet and then blame Slovenia and Greece for it. So
     we need to also look at that side of the coin.

     1.       Slovenian acceptance of Croatian accession

     a.       According the Swedish MEP, the key was Swedish ability to
     separate Turkey from Balkan accession. This is viewed as a key stumbling
     block for further expansion of the European Union.

     b.      The green light to Iceland is key part of this strategy. By
     giving an immediate green light to Iceland, Stockholm has been able to
     separate the two issues from one another.

     c.       Pressure was then placed on Slovenia to relent. This is
     confirmed by Croatian Ambassador to the EU, who said that what Zagreb
     gave Slovenia was in part offered in some form or another before.

     d.      But, Swedish MEP countered that at issue here was also stalling
     on part of Zagreb. For both Macedonia and Croatia, the Slovenia/Greece
     issue is just a useful tactic to hold back on required reforms and to
     blame a**thema** for why it is taking so long.

       ------------------------------------------------------------------

     Subject:                                                                 
     INSIGHT - EU: Enlargement Fatigue                                        
     From:                                                                    
     Marko Papic &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;                                   
     Date:                                                                    
     Thu, 17 Sep 2009 19:23:34 -0500 (CDT)                                    
     To:                                                                      
     secure &lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;                                             

     To:                                                                      
     secure &lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;                                             

     SOURCE CODE: SW501 (SW501 is a very well connected Swedish MEP with
     extremely close links to both the FM Carl Bildt -- his closest ally
     basically -- and the Balkans).
     PUBLICATION: No
     ATTRIBUTION:
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: NA
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: NA
     SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:
     SPECIAL HANDLING: Secure
     SOURCE HANDLER: Marko

     This is insight not just from Swedish MEP in charge of Balkan
     enlargement, but others as well.

     Basically, enlargement is dead. The Swedish Presidency, Carl Bildt
     personally, want to see each of the Balkan states make a step forward
     towards accession (one step minimum) during their presidency. Bildt of
     course had a very important role in the Balkans in the past, so he is a
     key player on this.

     However, Germany and France have totally stopped enlargement. The
     Swedish MEP I talked to fought very hard to have a resolution pass
     before this new parliament that said that rejection of Lisbon would NOT
     endanger enlargement. So that resolution passed. But she said that this
     current parliament would not be able to vote that resolution through
     because it is so right wing.

     The move to the right is very key, because it symbolically illustrates
     that enlargement is one of the things nobody wants to talk about. The
     French and German MEPs (who run the parliament according to most people
     I talked to) are especially opposed. Sweden is hoping for more
     enlargement because they tend to have very good relations with countries
     that they bring into the EU, it is a way to get more allies against
     France and Germany.

       ------------------------------------------------------------------

     Subject:                                                                 
     INSIGHT - SWEDEN: Carl Bildt                                             
     From:                                                                    
     Marko Papic &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;                                   
     Date:                                                                    
     Thu, 17 Sep 2009 19:29:58 -0500 (CDT)                                    
     To:                                                                      
     secure &lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;                                             

     To:                                                                      
     secure &lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;                                             

     SOURCE CODE: SW501 (SW501 is a very well connected Swedish MEP with
     extremely close links to both the FM Carl Bildt -- his closest ally
     basically -- and the Balkans).
     PUBLICATION: No
     ATTRIBUTION:
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: NA
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: NA
     SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:
     SPECIAL HANDLING: Secure
     SOURCE HANDLER: Marko

     I got a lot of info on Carl Bildt. Our Swedish MEP contact is basically
     his main ally. Bildt is apparently super tall, has photographic memory
     and is very smart. He has a very rocky relationship with the current
     Prime Minister because Reinfeldt was the youth leader of the Moderate
     Party when Bildt was the Prime Minister briefly and the two did not get
     along.

     Bildt believes that Sweden should become a world power. He talks a lot
     about the traditional sphere of Swedish influence in the Baltic (sort of
     like our monograph). From his experiences in the Balkans he has decided
     that he does not like Croats and Albanians.

     He is also very critical of Russia. He called Putin a "chetnik" in the
     middle of a meeting with an MEP group. He is essentially a personna non
     grata in Moscow. He is also at odds with Sarkozy because before Sweden
     received its EU Presidency he essentially told the French not to pull
     the same stuff they did with Czech Republic.

     He is very involved with enlargement. Sweden sees enlargement as a way
     to break the German-Frenc stranglehold on the EU. His personal goal is
     to see every Balkan state make one step forward towards accession during
     his premiership.

     I did meet his wife, who is also an MEP in the Parliament. She is
     apparently Italian and does not speak really good Swedish, so she
     couldn't get into the Swedish parliament. Instead, she campaigned for
     the European and got in.
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1683919_re-insight-batch-1-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1686031</id>
    <title>[Eurasia] TASKING - Secessionism
</title>
    <description>   Link: themeData
   Link: colorSchemeMapping

   I tried to keep it short, but can expand if needed.

   Galicia

    

   Population: Approximately 10 millions of Galician people worldwide,
   including 2.796.089 in Galicia (6-7% of the Spanish population).

    

   Popular support for independence: Low. According to a recent poll, 75% of
   the Galicians feel more Spanish than Galicians. Source Galicia has partial
   self-governance, in the form of a devolved government, established on 16
   March 1978 and reinforced by the Galician Statute of Autonomy, ratified on
   28 April 1981.

    

   Politics: President of Galicia: Alberto NA-oA+-ez FeijA^3o (Peoplea**s
   Party of Galicia).

    

   Parliament of Galice: 2009

   People's Party of Galicia (Partido Popular de Galicia)           38   

   Socialist Party of Galicia (Partido Socialista de Galicia)        25   

   Galician Nationalist Bloc (Bloque Nacionalista Galego)        12

   From 1990 BNG has gradually abandoned the secessionist discourse and
   claims for self-determination are rarely produced, especially since the
   regionalist party Unidade Galega (Galician Unity) joined the coalition.

    

   The movement for secessionism is very mild in Galicia.

    

    

   Sami people, Norway, Finland, Sweden, Russia:

    

   Population: Between 60,000 and 100,000 in Norway. 14,600 in Sweden. 9350
   in Finland. 2000 in Russia.

   Popular support for independence: Difficult to evaluate. There is a
   growing self-consciousness and the Sami people are asking for more rights,
   but still not to a point of secessionism.

    

   The Sami are politically organized through Sami Parliaments (one for each
   country) which sometimes work together. Most of their work is however
   related to preserving the Sami languages and culture. Disputes over the
   ownership of land and natural resources continue in these countries, which
   could potentially lead to a rise in their desire to be independent.

    

   The Sami Council is a transnational organization (ONG statute), which aims
   at promoting Saami rights and interests in the four countries where the
   Saami are living, to consolidate the feeling of affinity among the Saami
   people, to attain recognition for the Saami as a nation and to maintain
   the economic, social and cultural rights of the Saami in the legislation
   of the four states. Source

    

   Overall, the risk of secession is very low.

    

    

    

    

   The Basques (Spain): [When I say a**the Basque countrya**, I only refer to
   the Spanish part here]

    

   Population: 1,850,500 in the Spanish part of the Basque country, 230,020
   in the French part.

   Support for independence: Low/moderate.

    

   Autonomous since 1979. The Basque parliament:

    

   Basque Nationalist Party 30  == &gt; Independentist tendencies (proposed in
   2007 for example the creation of an independent a**euro-regiona**
   comprising the Spanish and French Basque country.

    

   Socialist Party of the Basque Country 25

    

   Peoplea**s Party 13

    

   Aralar 4  == &gt; Independentist Party

    

   Eusko Alkartasuna 1 == &gt; Independentist Party

    

   United Left 1

    

   UniA^3n Progreso y Democracia 1

                                        

  Since 2009, the President of the Basque country is Juan JosA(c) Ibarretxe, a
Socialist, but still fairly in favor of a wider autonomy (Proposed for example 
     in 2003 Ibarretxe Plan, which foresees a future Basque country 'freely
 associated' with Spain, with its own separate legal system and European Union
(EU) representation.) Thus, politically, the secessionist movement is relatively
strong. In regard to popular support to independence, a poll in 2002 showed that
32% of the people living in the Basque region would be in favor of a statu quo;
  31% are in favor of a wider autonomy and 31% would support the independence.
                                     Source

                                        

   Kosovo:

    

   PNV [Basque Nationalist Party]

    

   "It is a victory for common sense," Inigo Urkullu [leader of PNV] said.

    

   Inaki Anasagasti [PNV member of Parliament] urged the government to stop
   "scaring" Catalonia and the Basque Country.

    

   Source: La Vanguardia website, Barcelona, in Spanish 24 Jul 10

    

   El portavoz del Partido Nacionalista Vasco en la ComisiA^3n Mixta para la
   UniA^3n Europea, IA+-aki Anasagasti, ha declarado que esta decisiA^3n del
   CIJ no hace si no confirmar que la postura que EspaA+-a ha mantenido hasta
   ahora sobre este tema es "incomprensible y mA!s propia del franquismo" que
   de un sistema democrA!tico, y le ha pedido al Gobierno que deje de "meter
   miedo" a CataluA+-a y Euskadi. AdemA!s, ha arremetido contra el ministro
   de Exteriores, al que acusa de tener a**mucha querencia sobre Serbiaa**.
   Anasagasti ha apostillado que los nacionalistas vascos van a continuar
   reclamando en las Cortes Generales en su derecho de la voluntad popular
   "por encima de cualquier otra consideraciA^3n".Source

    

   Google Translate: The Basque Nationalist Party spokesman in the Joint
   Commission for the European Union, Inaki Anasagasti, said that the
   decision of the ICJ if it does confirm that the position that Spain has
   maintained so far on this issue is "incomprehensible and more typical of
   Franco "that a democratic system, and has asked the government to stop
   the" scare "in Catalonia and Euskadi. He has also lashed out at foreign
   minister, which he accuses of having "a lot of fondness for Serbia."
   Anasagasti has Apostilled that Basque nationalists will continue calling
   on the Parliament in the right of the popular will "above any other
   consideration."

    

    

   Catalonia:

    

   Population: 4,664,675 of Catalans in Catalonia (7,504,881 is the total
   population of Catalonia).

   Popular support: 37% of pro-independence, 41% of unionists (highest
   support of independence it has ever been) Source

    

   1979: Autonomy recovered. A new statute was approved in 2006 by
   referendum.  However, important articles of the statute were declared
   unconstitutional in July 2010. The Catalan Statute of Autonomy (1979)
   established a Catalan Parliament, the Presidency of the Generalitat, the
   Government or Executive Council and the other institutions created by the
   Parliament. Symbolic referendum on independence are sometimes organized.

    

   Catalan Parliament (2006 election) :

    

   ConvergA"ncia i UniA^3                                            48   ==
   &gt; Increase Cataloniaa**s autonomy

   Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya-CpC                           37 

   Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya                                   21 
      == &gt; Clearly independentists

   Partit Popular                                                     
                   14 

   Iniciativa Verds-Esquerra Alternativa                                12 

   Ciutadans - Partido de la CiudadanAa                                 3 

    

   Kosovo :

    

   Por su parte, Esquerra Republicana, a travA(c)s de su eurodiputado, Oriol
   Junqueras, se mostrA^3 "satisfecho de que la democracia haya vencido". ERC
   se propone presentar una propuesta no de ley pidiendo el reconocimiento
   con todos sus efectos de la RepA-oblica de Kosovo.  Source

    

   Google Translate: For its part, Esquerra Republicana, through its MEP,
   Oriol Junqueras, was "satisfied that democracy has prevailed." ERC intends
   to present a law proposal calling for the recognition for all purposes of
   the Republic of Kosovo.

    

   Entre los catalanes, el partido de Artur Mas ha felicitado al pueblo
   kosovar, y considera que esta ha sido una sentencia lA^3gica. AdemA!s,
   insta al Gobierno espaA+-ol a a**reconocer definitivamente al nuevo Estado
   europeo". Source

    

   Google Translate: Among the Catalans, the party of Artur Mas
   (ConvergA"ncia i UniA^3) has congratulated the people of Kosovo, and
   considers that this was a logical decision. It also urges the Spanish
   government to "finally recognize the new European state."

    

   From the President of Catalonia, Jose Montilla :

    

   El presidente de la Generalitat, JosA(c) Montilla, ha destacado que
   CataluA+-a y Kosovo tienen "pocas cosas en comA-on", por lo que ha
   rechazado que puedan establecerse paralelismos. "No tiene nada que ver el
   rA(c)gimen opresivo de la Serbia de Milosevic con la CataluA+-a y la
   EspaA+-a de 2010". Responde asA a las declaraciones de ERC. Para los
   independentistas, la decisiA^3n de la ONU de declarar legal la
   independencia de Kosovo se podrAa aplicar a una hipotA(c)tica
   independencia de CataluA+-a.

    

   Google Translate: The President of the Generalitat, JosA(c) Montilla,
   Catalonia and stressed that Kosovo have "little in common, so has rejected
   parallels can be established. "It has nothing to do with the oppressive
   regime of Milosevic's Serbia and Spain in Catalonia in 2010." Responds to
   the statements of ERC. For independence, the UN decision to declare the
   independence of Kosovo law could be applied to a hypothetical independence
   of Catalonia. Source

    

   == &gt; Moderate risk of secession. Very low risk of secession through a
   conflict .

    

    

   Nagorno-Karabakh:

    

   Population: About 140,000.

    

   Nagorno-Karabakh Republic: Territory internationally recognized as part of
   Azerbaijan, which has not exercised power over most of the region since
   1991. Three solutions: the region as part of Azerbaijan, the region as
   part of Armenia and an independent region. The election that took place in
   May showed a massive support for pro-independence parties. The Free
   Motherland party, led by the region's prime minister Ara Harutiunyan,
   received 46 percent of the vote and the pro-government Democratic Party of
   Artsakh 30 percent. Source

    

   Bako Sahakyan is currently the president of Nagorno-Karabakh.

    

   Kosovo:

    

   According to Sahakyan the advisory ruling by the International Court of
   Justice over the legality of Kosovoa**s independence will bring about new
   geopolitical situation.

    

   Further he said he did not think that ICJa**s ruling over Kosovo will
   seriously affect the works by OSCE MG, but even if it does, Karabakh will
   only welcome it. Source

    

 If the recognition of Kosovo's independence facilitates the

 international recognition of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, we will

 certainly welcome this, President of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic

 Bako Sahakyan said during a press-conference in Stepanakert July 23. Source

  

   == &gt; Technically speaking, the region is currently in between three
   stages. Very strong support for independence, but will not happen.

    

    

   Belgium:

    

   Population: 10,700,000. About 6,000,000 Flemish; 3,400,000 Walloons;
   73,000 German speaking people.

   Walloon/Flemish division.  There are different options: Wallonia could
   join France (weak popular support a** around 1%. However, 32% of the
   Walloons would be in favor of it if Belgium split apart Source),
   separation of Wallonia and Flanders (there is the problem of Brussels, in
   the middle of the Flanders).

    

   Composition of the Belgian Chamber of Representatives after the 13 June
   2010 general elections

   Walloon political parties

   1.      Socialist Party                                           26 seats
    

   2.      Ecolo                                                         8
   seats

   3.      Humanist Democratic Center                   9 seats

   4.      Reform Movement                                    18 seats

   Flemish political parties

   5.      Flemish Socialist Party                              13 seats

   6.      Green!                                                       5
   seats

   7.      Christian Democratic &amp; Flemish               17 seats === &gt; Wants
   a confederation

   8.      New Flemish Alliance                               27 seats == &gt;
   Clearly independendist

   9.      Open VLD                                                13 seats
   === &gt; Wants a confederation

   10.  Flemish Interest                                        12 seats == &gt;
   Clearly independendist

   11.  Others                                                       2 seats

    

   The country could split apart; it is an option that is possible.

   I have not seen statements about Kosovo.

    

    

   Corsica:

    

   Population: 294 118.

    

   The Nationalist parties are coming back. In March 2010, regional elections
   were held and the nationalist parties won 35,74% of the votes (three times
   more than at the previous election): 10% for the independentist party
   (Corsica Libera) and 26% for the autonomists (Femu a Corsica).

   The independence of Corsica will not happen anytime soon. The island is
   not auto-sufficient and popular support for independence is still not high
   enough (even though there is a rise). I would put Corsica in the second
   category.

    

   No statements about Kosovo.

    
</description>
    <date>2010-07-28 00:08:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-18 22:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1686031_-eurasia-tasking-secessionism-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>elodie.dabbagh@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1686093</id>
    <title>Did Mossad kill German politician involved in Iran-Contra scandal?
</title>
    <description>       Did Mossad kill German politician involved in Iran-Contra scandal?

   Posted on November 22, 2010 by intelNews| Leave a comment
   Uwe           Barschel

   Uwe Barschel

   By JOSEPH FITSANAKIS  | intelNews.org |
   Accusations of Israeli involvement in the suspicious death of a German
   politician have been revived, following new autopsy evidence revealed by a
   medical examiner. The case involves the death of Christian Democratic
   Union politician Uwe Barschel, who on October 11, 1987, was found dead in
   the bathtub of room 317 of the Beau-Rivage hotel in Geneva, Switzerland.
   His sudden death occurred less than a month after he was forced to resign
   from the post of Governor of West Germany's Schleswig-Holstein state,
   following his involvement in a dirty-tricks campaign against his rival
   Bjo:rn Engholm, of Germany's Social Democratic Party. Swiss authorities,
   based on an initial postmortem that revealed lethal levels of barbiturates
   in Barschel's system, ruled the death a suicide. But now Dr Hans
   Brandenberger, who was one of the toxicological experts that examined
   Barschel, claims that he is possession of new evidence that points to
   murder as the cause of the German politician's death. Speaking on Sunday
   to Germany's quality Welt am Sonntag broadsheet, Dr Brandenberger said
   that computer analysis of the original 1987 autopsy data makes it "next to
   certain that Barschel was injected with [the strong sedative] Noludar
   shortly before his death through the rectum". The toxicologist claims that
   the strong tranquilizer was part of a complex cocktail of drugs that was
   force-fed to the German politician after he was sedated, probably with the
   help of a spiked drink. Dr Brandenberger's allegations have breathed new
   life to claims that Barschel was in fact murdered by Israeli intelligence
   agency Mossad, who targeted him because of his inside knowledge of
   Iran-Contra scandal dealings. Specifically, Barschel is said to have known
   about an alleged transfer of Israeli military aircraft to the Islamic
   Republic of Iran, facilitated under United States oversight through German
   mediators. Following his resignation from his governor post, he had
   threatened to publicize insider accounts of the alleged transfer. During
   the Iran-Contra Scandal (1985-1986), Israel acted as Washington's conduit
   in supplying US-made weapons to Iran and then channeling the profits to
   the Contras paramilitary mercenaries fighting Nicaragua's Sandinista
   government. Incidentally, Israel did so in full knowledge of the fact that
   the Iranian government was at that time the primary military supplier of
   Palestinian militant group Hamas.

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-22 18:01:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-05 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1686093_did-mossad-kill-german-politician-involved-in-iran-contra.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/125/125556_first-post5.jpg</path><size>8711</size><md5></md5><sha1>f0beab7ff5e00aab3b00ba206049ed223a5efb9c</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1687368</id>
    <title>Re: interview request - John Batchelor Show
</title>
    <description>   good stuff

   not sure if it'll say when you air live, but you'll be able to listen to
   it on his site tomorrow via podcast

   On 12/7/2010 3:45 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     this went pretty well.  let me know if you find out what time it will
     air.  I didn't see his website updated yet.

     thanks
     On 12/7/10 1:37 PM, Kyle Rhodes wrote:

       Date: TUESDAY 7

       Time:    415   PM Eastern Time

       recorded for radio

       Re

       THE ASSANGE ARREST AND WIKILEAKS' SURVIVAL

       -------- Original Message --------

       Subject: John Batchelor Show                    
          Date: Tue, 7 Dec 2010 14:06:07 -0500         
          From: John Batchelor &lt;tippaine@gmail.com&gt;    
            To: Kyle Rhodes &lt;kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com&gt; 

       Hi
       ask to interview
       analyst
       Date: TUESDAY 7
       Time:    415   PM Eastern Time
       Re
       THE ASSANGE ARREST AND WIKILEAKS' SURVIVAL

       Summary
       WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange surrendered to authorities in Britain
       on Dec. 7, following an Interpol Red Notice based on a Swedish arrest
       warrant. WikiLeaks is a relatively young organization with one leader
       and has not institutionalized a set of practices and protocols that
       guarantee its survival even if the personnel changes. Assange's arrest
       will test the organization's ability to maintain itself, but the use
       of the Internet to leak documents will continue.

       Analysis
       need two phone numbers, landline and mobile, and email contact as
       well.
       thanks
       John Batchelor
       Studio backup 212 268 5730
       www.JohnBatchelorShow.com
       WABC Radio Network
       2 Penn Plaza
       NYC 10021
       --
       Thank you,
       John
       John Batchelor Show
       www.JohnBatchelorShow.com
       WABC Radio Network
       212-613-3800
       2 Penn Plaza
       NY, NY 10017

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Kyle Rhodes
 Public Relations Manager
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com

 kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com
 +1.512.744.4309
 www.twitter.com/stratfor
 www.facebook.com/stratfor
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 23:03:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1687368_re-interview-request-john-batchelor-show-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1687706</id>
    <title>Fwd: RE: UK arrests 5 under security law near nuclear site
</title>
    <description>   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: RE: UK arrests 5 under security law near nuclear site 
      Date: Tue, 3 May 2011 09:48:48 -0400                        
      From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;          
        To: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;                     

   We will be seeing many more of these actions in days to come. I'm getting
   pinged 24/7 by contacts/clients on the implications of UBL's demise.

    

   BTW: Nice piece from Scott. This is exactly the message we're sending out
   as well. IC has known since at least mid-2002 that AQ and other groups
   have (allegedly) had operations planned in the event UBL was
   killed/captured. In our estimation, soft targets overseas will be hit
   first. We're telling our clients that if terror groups are using ops plans
   that are already on the shelf, the surveillance they're likely to see
   around their facilities will be quick and dirty. Just a few runs for Red
   Light/Green Light verification. Telling all of them to get up on their
   toes and start looking for surveillance and get it into the TrapWire
   database for comparison. (Between you and me, we were seeing some really
   hinky stuff going on out west even before UBL takedown).

    

   Mike

    

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Tuesday, May 03, 2011 8:37 AM
   To: Michael Maness
   Subject: UK arrests 5 under security law near nuclear site

    

   UK arrests 5 under security law near nuclear site

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/03/us-britain-sellafield-idUSTRE74227A20110503?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=worldNews&amp;utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FworldNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+International%29

   LONDON | Tue May 3, 2011 6:40am EDT

   LONDON (Reuters) - Police said on Tuesday they had arrested five men close
   to the Sellafield nuclear reprocessing plant in northwest England under
   counter-terrorism laws.

   Cumbria police said the men were arrested on Monday after officers
   conducted a stop check on a vehicle near the site.

   The men are all aged in their 20s and from London, police said.

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-05-03 17:13:28</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1687706_fwd-re-uk-arrests-5-under-security-law-near-nuclear-site-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1687728</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - TURKMENISTAN - new daddy warbucks
</title>
    <description>   Yeah, think about it... the financial "groundwork" does not in any way
   shape or form easily translate into military framework... You're talking
   about Russia's soft underbelly. If this was Africa, or Latin America, or
   some equally distant place where the Beijing and Moscow were starting off
   on the same level, I would agree with you Reva.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Rodger Baker" &lt;rbaker@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;, "Lauren Goodrich"
   &lt;goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;, "Secure List" &lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;, "Eugene
   Chausovsky" &lt;eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, June 23, 2009 11:19:42 AM GMT -05:00 Colombia
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - TURKMENISTAN - new daddy warbucks

   its gonna take a hell of a paradigm shift for the chinese to deploy troops
   into central asia to take on the russians. 
   On Jun 23, 2009, at 11:16 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     if China lays the financial groundwork now in Central Asia, what stops
     Beijing from raising that to a military level down the line?   Would it
     necessarily be deterred by the Russians every time?
     On Jun 23, 2009, at 11:15 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

       Again though, Russia feels that it can... on a long enough of a
       timeline... overcome any Chinese influence built up by loans to the
       region. I am not saying that this PoV is going to prove correct for
       Russia, just that this is how Russia thinks. 

       Therefore, how is this latest Chinese loan any different from Chinese
       presence in the region in the past 5 years. Russia has allowed all of
       it to come to pass because they feel they can swoop in and reap the
       benefits at a later point when the investments bear fruits. 

       The question there is whether that is the point when Russia and China
       start having some real beef... whether such conflict is "built-in" by
       the Russian attitude right now. But that is an alltogether different
       question. 

       ----- Original Message -----
       From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
       To: "Rodger Baker" &lt;rbaker@stratfor.com&gt;
       Cc: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;, "Lauren Goodrich"
       &lt;goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;, "Secure List" &lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;, "Eugene
       Chausovsky" &lt;eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com&gt;
       Sent: Tuesday, June 23, 2009 11:10:37 AM GMT -05:00 Colombia
       Subject: Re: INSIGHT - TURKMENISTAN - new daddy warbucks

       I asked the same thing. Lauren said separate. and turkmenistan isn't
       in SCO
       On Jun 23, 2009, at 11:09 AM, Rodger Baker wrote:

         china was never harmless, though, which is what I was saying. But
         russia would allow China to play around because eventually perhaps
         Russia still has the upper hand in influence, and can gain more
         control over assets in region. That said, China is making numerous
         cash offers - do we know, for example, if this loan is under the
         recent deal China announced at SCO or separate? 
         But what will russia do in return? it aint gonna attack china. it
         did (again) delay its pipeline in the north to China. 
         On Jun 23, 2009, at 11:07 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

           it's thrown money, but we're in a slightly different context now.
           The region is getting hammered by the financial crisis and Russia
           has gone out of its way to screw turkmenistan. Then here comes
           China to the rescue.
           that's not very harmless from moscow's PoV, at least in my mind
           On Jun 23, 2009, at 10:56 AM, Rodger Baker wrote:

             Careful?
             China has thrown money after central asia. it is only careful in
             that it doesnt send troops like russia does. 
             On Jun 23, 2009, at 10:52 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

               now how does this balance out with Russian security guarantees
               for the Central Asians?
               China has always been very careful in treading on Moscow's
               turf. Isn't this the kind of thing that would escalate
               tensions?
               On Jun 23, 2009, at 10:49 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

                 Nice, the Chinese are a real alternative to BOTH IMF and
                 Russia... plus they have more money essentially than both. 

                 Eugene, take note of this situation... Good to maybe mention
                 in the overall Russian loan piece. 

                 ----- Original Message -----
                 From: "Lauren Goodrich" &lt;goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;
                 To: "Secure List" &lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;, "Eugene Chausovsky"
                 &lt;eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com&gt;
                 Sent: Tuesday, June 23, 2009 10:24:02 AM GMT -05:00 Colombia
                 Subject: INSIGHT - TURKMENISTAN - new daddy warbucks

                 I literally and accidentally ran into the Turkmen energy
                 minister in the swimming pool today while we were both doing
                 lapsa*| we got to talking on the side of the pool. (no code
                 bc he won't be a regular source of course)
                   
                 We started off lightly talking about who is getting projects
                 in the country with him confirming Russia snagging a lot of
                 the infrastructure, but that China is getting some very real
                 projects like South Yolotan field which he says holds 6 tcm
                 (which would make it one of the top 5 deposits in the
                 world). China will pay $3 billion for it. 
                   
                 Then I brought up the continued Russian cut-off of natural
                 gas. He said that hea**ll return to Ashgabat on Thursday
                 where hea**ll be in meetings with Beredimukhammedov and
                 Zubkov(who is pretty much in charge of Russo-Turkmen
                 relations for the Kremlin now). Zubkov is already in
                 Ashgabat and is planning on staying a**as long as needed to
                 get things sorteda** with the Turkmen. 
                   
                 I asked if thing could get sorted with Russia in a hell of a
                 position and not budging yet. He said he did not know but
                 that when he talked to Berdimukhammedov about the Russians
                 that the prez was a**furiousa** at Russiaa**s gall to treat
                 them this way. 
                   
                 I then very uncomfortably brought up the fact that theya**re
                 losing a billion a month and that this could potentially
                 bankrupt their country. He smiled really big and said that
                 they would be just fine. That their situation looked
                 terrible this past month. Turkmen FM Meredov had gone and
                 talked to the Europeans a few weeks ago to see if they had
                 any solutions (meaning IMF loans, etc.), but that they were
                 no help at all. 
                   
                 So Meredov went to China last week striking the Yolotan
                 deal, but also another deal in which China would a**loana**
                 Turkemenistan $3-5 billion. The terms have not been
                 finalized, but China said they could get them the cash
                 quickly, which is what Ashgabat needs.
                 -- 
                 Lauren Goodrich
                 Director of Analysis
                 Senior Eurasia Analyst
                 STRATFOR
                 T: 512.744.4311
                 F: 512.744.4334
                 lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
                 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1687728_re-insight-turkmenistan-new-daddy-warbucks-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>rbaker@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1689181</id>
    <title>Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade
</title>
    <description>   It's still metaphysical intelligence...

   Also, looks to me like they want ATF more deeply involved... how to we
   process that?

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 4:31:53 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   The Mexicans certainly do have the capability to trace the guns that are
   sold through UCAM.
    
   And they may be messed up, but they know the US does not make RPG 7
   rockets or South Korean frag grenades.
    
   AK varients imported to the US for sale also bear distinctive markings and
   features.
    
    
    
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Tuesday, July 07, 2009 4:46 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade
   Also, another logical problem with the argument of Mexico planting guns to
   the U.S. is that that would mean that they have some ability to trace the
   serial numbers first themselves. But they obviously don't have that
   capacity.

   Although, they could do it by make... Sort of like send the U.S. just the
   AR-15s, since obviously those are manufactured in the U.S. To tell you the
   truth, all of that sounds pretty organized for a fucked up place like
   Mexico.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 3:42:55 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   These are all good points...

   But the story itself is a strange choice to include to back up your
   argument... Fromt he story itself:

   But the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, which handles
   the U.S. investigations, is at the mercy of local Mexican police for the
   amount and quality of the information.

   "Many of these rural municipalities that may come into a gun seizure ...
   may not even know anything about tracing guns," ATF spokesman Thomas
   Mangan said.

   That is almost verbatim what MX1 is saying. No?

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 3:25:47 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   But I simply don't buy the logic that the Mexicans are too inept to pull
   the serial numbers off of recovered guns.  ATF has been in the country
   since the 1980's and has conducted hundreds of classes on identification,
   plus the Mexican military has weapons specialists in dedicated weapons
   storage facilities that are fully capable of copying down serial numbers: 
    
   http://abcnews.go.com/International/WireStory?id=7518874&amp;page=1
    
   The fact that the Mexican government is only turning over 7200 serial
   numbers a year to the US for tracing is incredible -- and very meaningful
   to a curious analyst.
    
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Tuesday, July 07, 2009 4:16 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade
   Definitely... plus if you could seal the border forever... and stop the
   flow of guns (magically), there are still guns that are in mexico.

   That is why ATF needs to be INSIDE there... which is what MX1 was saying.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 3:13:21 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   Look back at this piece.
    
   http://www.stratfor.com/tracing_mexicos_guns
    
   There are certain classes of weapons that the cartels obtain from the U.S.
   but certain other classes that they do not.
    
   In recent years we are seeing the cartel enforcer groups move more toward
   what I call the class 3 weapons - assault rifles, grenades and RPGs -- as
   the cartel wars have heated up.
    
   Even if they U.S. border were hermitically sealed this afternoon, the
   cartels would still be able to get guns.
    
    
    
    
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Tuesday, July 07, 2009 4:03 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade
   Also, note that this is not all about price. Price only matters in a free
   market ceteris paribus theoretical. I can't think of something that is
   more not governed by free market than gun sales. I don't doubt that heavy
   weapons and grenades do not come from the U.S. That is just Mex gov't
   propaganda. But why on earth would all the other stuff come from anywhere
   else, regardless of the price, when you can cross the border and buy it in
   the U.S.

   Also, are you factoring transportation and cost of security for weapons
   shipped from China or Asia? You can't just look at face value price when
   you need to factor a number of other actors. It just seems ludicrous to me
   that the cartels would get light arms from anywhere else.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 2:59:44 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   That's good... definitely a link to add to it.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 2:57:39 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   You know, a really good way to prove this theory would be to show that
   there is gun flow from Mexico INTO the U.S. That would prove your
   assertion about market dynamics which I am not necessarily sold on.

   Here you go.  We have a documented flow of grenades into the US from MX.

    

   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090210_mexico_u_s_new_weapon_cartel_arsenal

    

   Guns are still more expensive in MX than in the US but there are other
   places where they are cheaper than either the US or MX.

    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Tuesday, July 07, 2009 3:50 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade
   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 2:07:05 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   I didn't intend to get so deeply into the economic end of things when I
   began writing (this was supposed to be essentially  a primer on how
   international arms markets work) but when I began to think about the
   current gun and ammo shortages in the U.S. I kind of had an epiphany... 
   (I've been trying to buy a block of .22 rounds for weeks now. The guy
   at Wal-mart told me he got a shipment of .22s in last week and they sold
   out in 3 hours.)   This also has to have an impact on the cartels.

    

    

    

    

    

    

   Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

    

   On June 26, the small town of Apaseo el Alto, Guanajuato state, Mexico,
   was the scene of a [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090629_mexico_security_memo_june_29_2009
   ]  brief but deadly firefight between members of Los Zetas and federal and
   local security forces.  The engagement began when a joint patrol of
   Mexican soldiers and law enforcement officers responded to a report of
   heavily armed men at a suspected drug safe-house. When the patrol arrived,
   a 20 minute firefight erupted between the security forces and gunmen in
   the house, as well as several suspects in two vehicles that threw
   fragmentation grenades as they attempted to escape.

   When the shooting stopped, twelve gunmen were dead and twelve had been
   taken into custody, while several soldiers and police were reported
   wounded. At least half the detained suspects admitted to being members of
   Los Zetas. 

   When authorities examined the house they discovered a pit that contained
   the remains of an undetermined number of people (perhaps 14 or 15) who are
   believed to have been executed and then burned beyond recognition by Los
   Zetas.  The house also contained a large cache of weapons, including
   assault rifles and fragmentation grenades. Such [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/mexico_coming_fight_control_matamoros ] military
   ordnance is frequently used by Los Zetas and the enforcers who work for
   their rival cartels.

   STRATFOR has been [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/theme/tracking_mexicos_drug_cartels ] closely
   following the cartel violence in Mexico for several years now, and
   certainly the events that transpired in Apaseo el Alto are by no means
   unique. It is not uncommon for the Mexican authorities to engage in large
   firefights with cartel groups, encounter mass graves or [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20081112_worrying_signs_border_raids ]
   recover large caches of arms.  The recovery of these weapons does,
   however, provide an opportunity to once again focus on the dynamics of
   Mexicoa**s arms trade.

    

   White Black and Shades of Gray

    

   Before we get down in the weeds in Mexicoa**s arms flow, leta**s do
   something just a little different and first take a brief look at how arms
   trafficking works on a larger global and regional scale. Doing so will
   help better illustrate how the arms trafficking in Mexico fits into
   these broader patterns.

    

   When analysts examine arms sales they look at three general categories,
   the white arms, market, the gray arms market and the black arms market.
   The white arms market is the totally legal, above board transfer of
   weapons in accordance with the national laws of the parties involved and
   international treaties or restrictions. The parties in a white arms deal
   will file the proper paperwork to include end-user certificates noting
   what is being sold who is selling it and who it is going to.  There is an
   understanding that the receiving party does not intend to transfer the
   weapons to a third party. So for example, if the Mexican Army wants to buy
   an order of assault rifles from German arms maker Heckler and Koch, it
   places the order with the company and fills out all the required
   paperwork, to include getting permission for the sale from the German
   government.     

    

   Now, the white arms market can be deceived and manipulated, and when this
   happens, we get the gray market a** literally white arms that are shifted
   into the hands of someone other than the purported recipient. On of the
   classic ways to do this is to either falsify an end user certificate or to
   bribe an official in a third country to sign an end user certificate but
   then allow a shipment of arms to pass through a country en route to a
   third location. This type of transaction is frequently used in cases where
   there are international arms embargoes against a particular country (like
   Liberia) or where it is illegal to sell arms to a militant group (such as
   the FARC.)  On example of this would be Ukrainian small arms that were on
   paper supposed to go to CA'te d'Ivoire, but that were really transferred
   in violation of UN arms embargoes to Liberia and Sierra Leone. Another
   example of this would be the government of Peru ostensibly purchasing
   thousands of surplus East German assault rifles from Jordan on the white
   arms market but then those rifles slipped into the gray arms world when
   they were dropped at airstrips in the jungles of Colombia for use by the
   FARC instead of being delivered to the Peruvian military.

    

   At the far end of the spectrum is the black arms market where the guns are
   contraband from the get go and all the business is conducted under the
   board. There are no end user certificates and the weapons are smuggled
   covertly. Examples of this would be the smuggling of arms from the Former
   Soviet Union (FSU) and Afghanistan into Europe through places like Kosovo
   and Slovenia, or the smuggling of arms into South America from Asia, the
   FSU and Middle East by Hezbollah and criminal gangs in the Tri-Border
   Region.

    

   Nation states will often use the gray and black arms markets in order to
   support allies, undermine opponents or otherwise pursue their national
   interests. This was clearly revealed in the Iran-Contra scandal of the mid
   1980a**s but Iran-Contra only scratched the surface of the arms smuggling
   that occurred during the Cold War.  Untold tons of military ordnance was
   delivered by the U.S. and the Soviet Union and Cuba to their respective
   allies in Latin America during the Cold War.

   This quantity of materiel shipped into Latin America during the Cold War
   brings up another very important point pertaining to weapons. Unlike
   drugs, which are consumable goods, firearms are durable goods. This means
   that they can be useful for decades and are frequently shipped from
   conflict zone to conflict zone. East German MPiKMS and MPiKM assault
   rifles are still floating around the worlda**s arms markets years after
   the German Democratic Republic ceased to exist.  In fact, visiting an arms
   bazaar in a place like Yemen is like visiting an arms museum. One can
   encounter functional century-old Lee-Enfield and Springfield rifles in a
   rack next to a modern U.S. M-4 rifle or a German HK 93, and those next to
   brand-new, just out of the box, Chinese Type 56 and 81 assault rifles.  

    

   There is often a correlation between arms and drug smuggling. In many
   instances the same routes used to smuggle drugs are also used to smuggle
   arms. In some instances, like the smuggling routes from Central Asia to
   Europe, the flow of guns and drugs flows in the same direction, and they
   are both sold in Western Europe for cash.  In the case of Latin American
   cocaine, the drugs tend to flow in one direction (towards the U.S. and
   Europe) while guns from the U.S. and Russian organized crime groups flow
   in the other direction, and often times the guns are used as whole or
   partial payment for the drugs.

    

   Illegal drugs are not the only thing traded for guns.  During the Cold War
   there was a robust arms-for-sugar trade going on between the Cubans and
   Vietnamese. As a result, Marxist groups all over Latin America were
   furnished with U.S. materiel either captured or left behind when the
   Americans withdrew from the country.  LAW rockets traced to U.S. military
   stocks sent to Vietnam were used in several attacks by Latin American
   Marxist groups. These Vietnam-war vintage weapons still crop up with some
   frequency in Mexico, Colombia and other parts of the region. Cold-war era
   weapons furnished to the likes of the Contras, the Sandinistas, the FMLN
   and URNG in the 1980a**s are also frequently encountered in the region.

    

   After the civil wars ended in places like El Salvador and Guatemala, the
   governments and international community attempted to institute arms
   by-back programs, but those programs were not very successful and most of
   the guns turned in were very old a** the better arms were cached by groups
   or kept by individuals.  These guns have found their way in dribs and
   drabs back onto the black arms market

    

   Well Over 90%

    

   For several years now, Mexican officials have been telling STRATFOR that
   [link http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/mexico_dynamics_gun_trade ] 90
   percent of the arms used by criminals in Mexico come from the U.S.  Last
   month, that  number was echoed in a report by the Government
   Accountability Office (GAO) report on U.S. efforts to Conbat Arms
   Trafficking to Mexico (see external link).

    

     External link http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09709.pdf

     

   The GAO report stated that in 2008, some 30,000 firearms were seized from
   criminals by Mexican officials. Out of these 30,000 firearms, information
   pertaining to 7,200 of the, (24 percent) was submitted to ATF for tracing.
   Of these 7,200 guns, only approximately 4,000 could be traced and of these
   4,000, some 3,480 or 87 percent, were shown to have come from the U.S. 

    

   This means that the 87 percent number comes from the number of weapons
   submitted by the Mexican government to ATF that could be successfully
   traced, and not from the total number of weapons seized by the Mexicans or
   even from the total number of weapons submitted to ATF for tracing. The
   3,480 guns positively traced to the U.S. only equals less than 12 percent
   of the total arms seized in 2008 and less than 48 percent of those
   submitted to the ATF for tracing by the Mexican government.

   From our contact we have information for why this is so... He has before
   told us that Mexican authorities are incapable of properly tracing serial
   numbers and that often ATF uses numbers gathered in the open source. Many
   of these numbers are not serial numbers at all... instead they are model
   numbers or something else.

   Contact was adamant that the only way this could work is if the ATF had an
   actual presence in Mexico itself.

    

   The 87 percent number is not supported by the evidence presented by the
   GAO. In a response to the GAO report that was published as part of the
   report, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security called the GAOa**s use of
   the 87 percent statistic a**misleadinga**.  DHS further noted that
   a**Numerous problems with the data collection and sample population render
   this assertion as unreliable.a** Yes, this is most definitely corroborated
   by our Mexican contact.

    

   Interestingly, when STRATFOR asked a Mexican government official about the
   report in an attempt to get an honest read on the scope of the problem of
   U.S. firearms going to Mexico, the official told us (off the record) that
   the amount of ordnance (guns, grenades, ammunition, etc.) seized by the
   Mexican government that come from the U.S. is a**way over 90 percent.a**  
   With the 87 percent number being dubious, the a**way over 90 percenta**
   claim is really very hard to swallow. 

   Now at STRATFOR, we really dislike it when people attempt to feed us
   disinformation in an attempt to get us to report it to further some
   agenda. Of course such efforts quickly lead us to consider exactly what
   that agenda is, and frequently examining the motives of such people who 
   provides us with more interesting intelligence than the initial report
   itself. In this case it is clear that the motive of the Mexican government
   is simple deflection.

   It is not just deflection. Mexico is trying to establish the concept of
   "shared responsibility". That has been a key phrase that we have heard
   from U.S. officials themselves and from our contact as well. I personally
   think they are angling to get U.S. to feel sorry for them...

   The Mexicans have been criticized by the U.S. for decades over their
   inability to stop the flow of narcotics through their territory. Instead
   of addressing the hard problem and stopping the flow of narcotics, they
   have instead attempted to deflect criticism by blaming the guns proceeding
   from the U.S. for their inability to stop the flow of drugs. This is
   strange because Mexico has been arguing against U.S. arms flow for
   years... this is not something that is new. Sounds a bit like you're
   griping too...

   We strongly suspect that there is a program underway to cherry pick the
   guns provided to the ATF for tracing and that only those guns that are
   likely to be traced back to the U.S. are provided for tracing. Sounds like
   metaphysical intelligence to me... are you sure your sources on the U.S.
   side are not doing the same thing our Mexican soruces are?

    

   We strongly doubt the Mexicans are providing ATF information from the
   RPG-7 rocket launchers, South Korean hand grenades, Israeli, South African
   Belgian, German, Chinese and other foreign weapons that likely have no
   connection to the U.S.  In this way they Mexicans are able to spin the
   arms tracing figures in their favor, which provides them with a ready
   response whenever the U.S. criticizes Mexican counternarcotics efforts.
   Again, unless you have evidence of this... we are doing metaphysical
   intelligence. Our Mexican contact has said repeatedly that without ATF
   presence in Mexico, there is going to be no proper intelligence on serial
   numbers. He has said in a conversation two days ago that Mexico is hoping
   to have something in place where ATF is present in Mexico. It was in an
   insight that you commented on that he was smoking crack.

   Again, from the contact:

   The only really effective way to clamp down on trafficking in arms is to
   institutionalize physical access by ATF agents to Mexico, so they can take
   pictures, and run traces from there.  There are many dangers to this, but
   it is something that is being worked on, and which I expect to see
   completed within the next 12 months, at least de jure.

    

   Reality

    

   Arms, like drugs are a commodity, and as such, the economic laws of supply
   and demand play a big part in global arms trafficking. Ordnance flows from
   places where it is cheap and available to places where it is not. Because
   of this, the a**well over 90 percenta** argument does not make a whole lot
   of economic sense. Wait why? Logically it makes sense that it would flow
   from U.S.... at least the small arms (certainly not the heavy stuff that
   they get from corrupt Mexican cops and army). I mean you cross the border,
   go to a gun show and you get a gun... IT's simple.

    

   Firstly, it must be recognized that while arms sales are restricted in
   Mexico, they do occur and people are able to buy weapons from the
   government. In fact guns in calibers that are very popular in Mexico but
   fairly uncommon in the U.S. (like the .38 Super) are commonly used by
   criminals.    Yup... corroberated by contact.

    

   Secondly at the present time assault rifles are very expensive in the
   United States, as is ammunition. In fact, it is difficult to locate many
   types of assault rifles and ammunition at the present time, though a lucky
   buyer might be able to find a basic stripped down AR-15 for between $850
   and $1100, or and an AK-47 for between $650 and $850. Obviously, a gun
   purchased in the U.S., smuggled into Mexico and sold to a cartel is going
   to carry a premium well above this purchase price. Sure, but you just have
   to cross the border to get it. Also, this does not preclude gun sales
   prior to price inflation.  Now, by way of comparison, a surplus assault
   rifle can be purchased for under $100 on the white arms market, and about
   the same on the black arms market in locations where weapons are abundant.
   That difference in price provides a powerful economic incentive to buy low
   elsewhere and sell high in Mexico.  Indeed, we have seen reports of
   international arms merchants from places like Israel and Belgium, selling
   weapons to the cartels, and that ordnance is coming into Mexico through
   routes other than over the U.S. border.  

    

   You know, a really good way to prove this theory would be to show that
   there is gun flow from Mexico INTO the U.S. That would prove your
   assertion about market dynamics which I am not necessarily sold on.

   At the same time as gun and ammunition prices have spiked in the U.S. the
   profits of the Mexican cartels have plummeted due to increased enforcement
   efforts and inter- and intra- cartel wars.  Many of the cartels are
   hurting for money and have had to resort to kidnapping and other crime in
   order to finance their operations. That means that they will be attempting
   to purchase maximum firepower for the minimum price.

    

   The Bottom Line

    

   STRATFOR believes that the issue of U.S. guns being sent south of the
   border is a serious issue, but we do not believe that U.S. weapons
   represent any where near 90 percent of the cartelsa** weaponry a**
   especially their military-style weapons like fully automatic assault
   rifles, fragmentation grenades and RPGa**s, where the percentage of U.S.
   ordnance is negligible. Yeah, I think that is true as well... definitely
   not the heavy serious stuff. The cartels clearly have contacts with arms
   dealers outside of the U.S. both those who deal in cold war-era stocks of
   arms in Latin America and international arms merchants who can supply arms
   from around the world.

    

   While increased U.S. enforcement efforts will have an impact as the risk
   of being caught outweighs the profit that can be made by selling guns to
   the cartels, we believe that economics (high gun prices and scarce
   ammunition supplies you are overemphesizing this... this is a current
   issue that has nothing to do with last 3-4 years of arms sales though. )
   may play an equally important part in reducing the flow of U.S. guns to
   Mexico IN THE FUTURE (or at least while Obama is the President). The laws
   of supply and demand will ensure that the Mexican cartels get their
   ordnance in the most price effective way, and with the current gun and
   ammunition supply issues in the U.S. that will likely mean that an even
   greater amount of that supply will come from outside the U.S. via the gray
   and black arms markets.

    
   Scott Stewart
   STRATFOR
   Office: 814 967 4046
   Cell: 814 573 8297
   scott.stewart@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
    
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1689181_re-s-weekly-for-comment-mexico-economics-and-the-arms-trade-.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1689561</id>
    <title>G3 - GERMANY - Berlin asks NATO partners to keep quiet on deadly
 bombing
</title>
    <description>   example of pissed iron frau

   ----- Forwarded Message -----
   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "watchofficer" &lt;watchofficer@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 7:17:01 AM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: G3 - GERMANY - Berlin asks NATO partners to keep quiet on deadly
   bombing

   Berlin asks NATO partners to keep quiet on deadly bombing

   Published: 11 Sep 09 09:00 CET
   Online: http://www.thelocal.de/national/20090911-21857.html

   The German government has issued a round of formal diplomatic protests to
   fellow NATO countries, asking them to refrain from criticising a
   controversial air strike called by the Bundeswehr in Afghanistan last
   week.

   The Foreign Ministry told daily Financial Times Deutschland on Friday that
   German ambassadors had issued the demarches in NATO allied countries. The
   formal protests asked that officials wait until the NATO probe of the
   incident had concluded before commenting on the deadly bombing.

   In Paris the protest was not well-received, the paper said.

   a**What should a minister say if such an attack kills 80 and there are
   civilians among them? Nothing?a** an unnamed diplomat told the paper.

   On Tuesday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel rejected a**prejudgementa** of
   the air strike in a speech to parliament.

   Merkel assured the bombing of two fuel trucks in the northern part of the
   country last Friday would be thoroughly investigated amid concerns it
   caused scores of civilian casualties.

   She lashed out at widespread criticism by many of Germanya**s closes
   allies before NATO's International Security Assistance Force (ISAF)
   completed its investigation of the incident.

   a**I wona**t tolerate that either here at home or abroad,a** she said.

   The German government and military have faced immense pressure in recent
   days after Col. Georg Klein called in NATO air support to destroy two fuel
   tankers hijacked by the Taliban near the Afghan city of Kunduz. Berlin at
   first contended that only Islamist insurgents had been killed in the air
   strike, but ISAF announced shortly after Merkel's speech that there had
   been an unspecified number of civilian victims.

   French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner has described the strike as a
   "big mistake" while Afghan President Hamid Karzai blasted the German
   commander's call in an interview with French daily Le Figaro: "What an
   error of judgement!"

   http://www.thelocal.de/national/20090911-21857.html

    
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-08 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1689561_g3-germany-berlin-asks-nato-partners-to-keep-quiet-on-deadly.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1689566</id>
    <title>Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade
</title>
    <description>   Definitely... plus if you could seal the border forever... and stop the
   flow of guns (magically), there are still guns that are in mexico.

   That is why ATF needs to be INSIDE there... which is what MX1 was saying.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 3:13:21 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   Look back at this piece.
    
   http://www.stratfor.com/tracing_mexicos_guns
    
   There are certain classes of weapons that the cartels obtain from the U.S.
   but certain other classes that they do not.
    
   In recent years we are seeing the cartel enforcer groups move more toward
   what I call the class 3 weapons - assault rifles, grenades and RPGs -- as
   the cartel wars have heated up.
    
   Even if they U.S. border were hermitically sealed this afternoon, the
   cartels would still be able to get guns.
    
    
    
    
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Tuesday, July 07, 2009 4:03 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade
   Also, note that this is not all about price. Price only matters in a free
   market ceteris paribus theoretical. I can't think of something that is
   more not governed by free market than gun sales. I don't doubt that heavy
   weapons and grenades do not come from the U.S. That is just Mex gov't
   propaganda. But why on earth would all the other stuff come from anywhere
   else, regardless of the price, when you can cross the border and buy it in
   the U.S.

   Also, are you factoring transportation and cost of security for weapons
   shipped from China or Asia? You can't just look at face value price when
   you need to factor a number of other actors. It just seems ludicrous to me
   that the cartels would get light arms from anywhere else.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 2:59:44 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   That's good... definitely a link to add to it.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 2:57:39 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   You know, a really good way to prove this theory would be to show that
   there is gun flow from Mexico INTO the U.S. That would prove your
   assertion about market dynamics which I am not necessarily sold on.

   Here you go.  We have a documented flow of grenades into the US from MX.

    

   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090210_mexico_u_s_new_weapon_cartel_arsenal

    

   Guns are still more expensive in MX than in the US but there are other
   places where they are cheaper than either the US or MX.

    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Tuesday, July 07, 2009 3:50 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade
   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 2:07:05 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   I didn't intend to get so deeply into the economic end of things when I
   began writing (this was supposed to be essentially  a primer on how
   international arms markets work) but when I began to think about the
   current gun and ammo shortages in the U.S. I kind of had an epiphany... 
   (I've been trying to buy a block of .22 rounds for weeks now. The guy
   at Wal-mart told me he got a shipment of .22s in last week and they sold
   out in 3 hours.)   This also has to have an impact on the cartels.

    

    

    

    

    

    

   Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

    

   On June 26, the small town of Apaseo el Alto, Guanajuato state, Mexico,
   was the scene of a [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090629_mexico_security_memo_june_29_2009
   ]  brief but deadly firefight between members of Los Zetas and federal and
   local security forces.  The engagement began when a joint patrol of
   Mexican soldiers and law enforcement officers responded to a report of
   heavily armed men at a suspected drug safe-house. When the patrol arrived,
   a 20 minute firefight erupted between the security forces and gunmen in
   the house, as well as several suspects in two vehicles that threw
   fragmentation grenades as they attempted to escape.

   When the shooting stopped, twelve gunmen were dead and twelve had been
   taken into custody, while several soldiers and police were reported
   wounded. At least half the detained suspects admitted to being members of
   Los Zetas. 

   When authorities examined the house they discovered a pit that contained
   the remains of an undetermined number of people (perhaps 14 or 15) who are
   believed to have been executed and then burned beyond recognition by Los
   Zetas.  The house also contained a large cache of weapons, including
   assault rifles and fragmentation grenades. Such [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/mexico_coming_fight_control_matamoros ] military
   ordnance is frequently used by Los Zetas and the enforcers who work for
   their rival cartels.

   STRATFOR has been [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/theme/tracking_mexicos_drug_cartels ] closely
   following the cartel violence in Mexico for several years now, and
   certainly the events that transpired in Apaseo el Alto are by no means
   unique. It is not uncommon for the Mexican authorities to engage in large
   firefights with cartel groups, encounter mass graves or [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20081112_worrying_signs_border_raids ]
   recover large caches of arms.  The recovery of these weapons does,
   however, provide an opportunity to once again focus on the dynamics of
   Mexicoa**s arms trade.

    

   White Black and Shades of Gray

    

   Before we get down in the weeds in Mexicoa**s arms flow, leta**s do
   something just a little different and first take a brief look at how arms
   trafficking works on a larger global and regional scale. Doing so will
   help better illustrate how the arms trafficking in Mexico fits into
   these broader patterns.

    

   When analysts examine arms sales they look at three general categories,
   the white arms, market, the gray arms market and the black arms market.
   The white arms market is the totally legal, above board transfer of
   weapons in accordance with the national laws of the parties involved and
   international treaties or restrictions. The parties in a white arms deal
   will file the proper paperwork to include end-user certificates noting
   what is being sold who is selling it and who it is going to.  There is an
   understanding that the receiving party does not intend to transfer the
   weapons to a third party. So for example, if the Mexican Army wants to buy
   an order of assault rifles from German arms maker Heckler and Koch, it
   places the order with the company and fills out all the required
   paperwork, to include getting permission for the sale from the German
   government.     

    

   Now, the white arms market can be deceived and manipulated, and when this
   happens, we get the gray market a** literally white arms that are shifted
   into the hands of someone other than the purported recipient. On of the
   classic ways to do this is to either falsify an end user certificate or to
   bribe an official in a third country to sign an end user certificate but
   then allow a shipment of arms to pass through a country en route to a
   third location. This type of transaction is frequently used in cases where
   there are international arms embargoes against a particular country (like
   Liberia) or where it is illegal to sell arms to a militant group (such as
   the FARC.)  On example of this would be Ukrainian small arms that were on
   paper supposed to go to CA'te d'Ivoire, but that were really transferred
   in violation of UN arms embargoes to Liberia and Sierra Leone. Another
   example of this would be the government of Peru ostensibly purchasing
   thousands of surplus East German assault rifles from Jordan on the white
   arms market but then those rifles slipped into the gray arms world when
   they were dropped at airstrips in the jungles of Colombia for use by the
   FARC instead of being delivered to the Peruvian military.

    

   At the far end of the spectrum is the black arms market where the guns are
   contraband from the get go and all the business is conducted under the
   board. There are no end user certificates and the weapons are smuggled
   covertly. Examples of this would be the smuggling of arms from the Former
   Soviet Union (FSU) and Afghanistan into Europe through places like Kosovo
   and Slovenia, or the smuggling of arms into South America from Asia, the
   FSU and Middle East by Hezbollah and criminal gangs in the Tri-Border
   Region.

    

   Nation states will often use the gray and black arms markets in order to
   support allies, undermine opponents or otherwise pursue their national
   interests. This was clearly revealed in the Iran-Contra scandal of the mid
   1980a**s but Iran-Contra only scratched the surface of the arms smuggling
   that occurred during the Cold War.  Untold tons of military ordnance was
   delivered by the U.S. and the Soviet Union and Cuba to their respective
   allies in Latin America during the Cold War.

   This quantity of materiel shipped into Latin America during the Cold War
   brings up another very important point pertaining to weapons. Unlike
   drugs, which are consumable goods, firearms are durable goods. This means
   that they can be useful for decades and are frequently shipped from
   conflict zone to conflict zone. East German MPiKMS and MPiKM assault
   rifles are still floating around the worlda**s arms markets years after
   the German Democratic Republic ceased to exist.  In fact, visiting an arms
   bazaar in a place like Yemen is like visiting an arms museum. One can
   encounter functional century-old Lee-Enfield and Springfield rifles in a
   rack next to a modern U.S. M-4 rifle or a German HK 93, and those next to
   brand-new, just out of the box, Chinese Type 56 and 81 assault rifles.  

    

   There is often a correlation between arms and drug smuggling. In many
   instances the same routes used to smuggle drugs are also used to smuggle
   arms. In some instances, like the smuggling routes from Central Asia to
   Europe, the flow of guns and drugs flows in the same direction, and they
   are both sold in Western Europe for cash.  In the case of Latin American
   cocaine, the drugs tend to flow in one direction (towards the U.S. and
   Europe) while guns from the U.S. and Russian organized crime groups flow
   in the other direction, and often times the guns are used as whole or
   partial payment for the drugs.

    

   Illegal drugs are not the only thing traded for guns.  During the Cold War
   there was a robust arms-for-sugar trade going on between the Cubans and
   Vietnamese. As a result, Marxist groups all over Latin America were
   furnished with U.S. materiel either captured or left behind when the
   Americans withdrew from the country.  LAW rockets traced to U.S. military
   stocks sent to Vietnam were used in several attacks by Latin American
   Marxist groups. These Vietnam-war vintage weapons still crop up with some
   frequency in Mexico, Colombia and other parts of the region. Cold-war era
   weapons furnished to the likes of the Contras, the Sandinistas, the FMLN
   and URNG in the 1980a**s are also frequently encountered in the region.

    

   After the civil wars ended in places like El Salvador and Guatemala, the
   governments and international community attempted to institute arms
   by-back programs, but those programs were not very successful and most of
   the guns turned in were very old a** the better arms were cached by groups
   or kept by individuals.  These guns have found their way in dribs and
   drabs back onto the black arms market

    

   Well Over 90%

    

   For several years now, Mexican officials have been telling STRATFOR that
   [link http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/mexico_dynamics_gun_trade ] 90
   percent of the arms used by criminals in Mexico come from the U.S.  Last
   month, that  number was echoed in a report by the Government
   Accountability Office (GAO) report on U.S. efforts to Conbat Arms
   Trafficking to Mexico (see external link).

    

     External link http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09709.pdf

     

   The GAO report stated that in 2008, some 30,000 firearms were seized from
   criminals by Mexican officials. Out of these 30,000 firearms, information
   pertaining to 7,200 of the, (24 percent) was submitted to ATF for tracing.
   Of these 7,200 guns, only approximately 4,000 could be traced and of these
   4,000, some 3,480 or 87 percent, were shown to have come from the U.S. 

    

   This means that the 87 percent number comes from the number of weapons
   submitted by the Mexican government to ATF that could be successfully
   traced, and not from the total number of weapons seized by the Mexicans or
   even from the total number of weapons submitted to ATF for tracing. The
   3,480 guns positively traced to the U.S. only equals less than 12 percent
   of the total arms seized in 2008 and less than 48 percent of those
   submitted to the ATF for tracing by the Mexican government.

   From our contact we have information for why this is so... He has before
   told us that Mexican authorities are incapable of properly tracing serial
   numbers and that often ATF uses numbers gathered in the open source. Many
   of these numbers are not serial numbers at all... instead they are model
   numbers or something else.

   Contact was adamant that the only way this could work is if the ATF had an
   actual presence in Mexico itself.

    

   The 87 percent number is not supported by the evidence presented by the
   GAO. In a response to the GAO report that was published as part of the
   report, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security called the GAOa**s use of
   the 87 percent statistic a**misleadinga**.  DHS further noted that
   a**Numerous problems with the data collection and sample population render
   this assertion as unreliable.a** Yes, this is most definitely corroborated
   by our Mexican contact.

    

   Interestingly, when STRATFOR asked a Mexican government official about the
   report in an attempt to get an honest read on the scope of the problem of
   U.S. firearms going to Mexico, the official told us (off the record) that
   the amount of ordnance (guns, grenades, ammunition, etc.) seized by the
   Mexican government that come from the U.S. is a**way over 90 percent.a**  
   With the 87 percent number being dubious, the a**way over 90 percenta**
   claim is really very hard to swallow. 

   Now at STRATFOR, we really dislike it when people attempt to feed us
   disinformation in an attempt to get us to report it to further some
   agenda. Of course such efforts quickly lead us to consider exactly what
   that agenda is, and frequently examining the motives of such people who 
   provides us with more interesting intelligence than the initial report
   itself. In this case it is clear that the motive of the Mexican government
   is simple deflection.

   It is not just deflection. Mexico is trying to establish the concept of
   "shared responsibility". That has been a key phrase that we have heard
   from U.S. officials themselves and from our contact as well. I personally
   think they are angling to get U.S. to feel sorry for them...

   The Mexicans have been criticized by the U.S. for decades over their
   inability to stop the flow of narcotics through their territory. Instead
   of addressing the hard problem and stopping the flow of narcotics, they
   have instead attempted to deflect criticism by blaming the guns proceeding
   from the U.S. for their inability to stop the flow of drugs. This is
   strange because Mexico has been arguing against U.S. arms flow for
   years... this is not something that is new. Sounds a bit like you're
   griping too...

   We strongly suspect that there is a program underway to cherry pick the
   guns provided to the ATF for tracing and that only those guns that are
   likely to be traced back to the U.S. are provided for tracing. Sounds like
   metaphysical intelligence to me... are you sure your sources on the U.S.
   side are not doing the same thing our Mexican soruces are?

    

   We strongly doubt the Mexicans are providing ATF information from the
   RPG-7 rocket launchers, South Korean hand grenades, Israeli, South African
   Belgian, German, Chinese and other foreign weapons that likely have no
   connection to the U.S.  In this way they Mexicans are able to spin the
   arms tracing figures in their favor, which provides them with a ready
   response whenever the U.S. criticizes Mexican counternarcotics efforts.
   Again, unless you have evidence of this... we are doing metaphysical
   intelligence. Our Mexican contact has said repeatedly that without ATF
   presence in Mexico, there is going to be no proper intelligence on serial
   numbers. He has said in a conversation two days ago that Mexico is hoping
   to have something in place where ATF is present in Mexico. It was in an
   insight that you commented on that he was smoking crack.

   Again, from the contact:

   The only really effective way to clamp down on trafficking in arms is to
   institutionalize physical access by ATF agents to Mexico, so they can take
   pictures, and run traces from there.  There are many dangers to this, but
   it is something that is being worked on, and which I expect to see
   completed within the next 12 months, at least de jure.

    

   Reality

    

   Arms, like drugs are a commodity, and as such, the economic laws of supply
   and demand play a big part in global arms trafficking. Ordnance flows from
   places where it is cheap and available to places where it is not. Because
   of this, the a**well over 90 percenta** argument does not make a whole lot
   of economic sense. Wait why? Logically it makes sense that it would flow
   from U.S.... at least the small arms (certainly not the heavy stuff that
   they get from corrupt Mexican cops and army). I mean you cross the border,
   go to a gun show and you get a gun... IT's simple.

    

   Firstly, it must be recognized that while arms sales are restricted in
   Mexico, they do occur and people are able to buy weapons from the
   government. In fact guns in calibers that are very popular in Mexico but
   fairly uncommon in the U.S. (like the .38 Super) are commonly used by
   criminals.    Yup... corroberated by contact.

    

   Secondly at the present time assault rifles are very expensive in the
   United States, as is ammunition. In fact, it is difficult to locate many
   types of assault rifles and ammunition at the present time, though a lucky
   buyer might be able to find a basic stripped down AR-15 for between $850
   and $1100, or and an AK-47 for between $650 and $850. Obviously, a gun
   purchased in the U.S., smuggled into Mexico and sold to a cartel is going
   to carry a premium well above this purchase price. Sure, but you just have
   to cross the border to get it. Also, this does not preclude gun sales
   prior to price inflation.  Now, by way of comparison, a surplus assault
   rifle can be purchased for under $100 on the white arms market, and about
   the same on the black arms market in locations where weapons are abundant.
   That difference in price provides a powerful economic incentive to buy low
   elsewhere and sell high in Mexico.  Indeed, we have seen reports of
   international arms merchants from places like Israel and Belgium, selling
   weapons to the cartels, and that ordnance is coming into Mexico through
   routes other than over the U.S. border.  

    

   You know, a really good way to prove this theory would be to show that
   there is gun flow from Mexico INTO the U.S. That would prove your
   assertion about market dynamics which I am not necessarily sold on.

   At the same time as gun and ammunition prices have spiked in the U.S. the
   profits of the Mexican cartels have plummeted due to increased enforcement
   efforts and inter- and intra- cartel wars.  Many of the cartels are
   hurting for money and have had to resort to kidnapping and other crime in
   order to finance their operations. That means that they will be attempting
   to purchase maximum firepower for the minimum price.

    

   The Bottom Line

    

   STRATFOR believes that the issue of U.S. guns being sent south of the
   border is a serious issue, but we do not believe that U.S. weapons
   represent any where near 90 percent of the cartelsa** weaponry a**
   especially their military-style weapons like fully automatic assault
   rifles, fragmentation grenades and RPGa**s, where the percentage of U.S.
   ordnance is negligible. Yeah, I think that is true as well... definitely
   not the heavy serious stuff. The cartels clearly have contacts with arms
   dealers outside of the U.S. both those who deal in cold war-era stocks of
   arms in Latin America and international arms merchants who can supply arms
   from around the world.

    

   While increased U.S. enforcement efforts will have an impact as the risk
   of being caught outweighs the profit that can be made by selling guns to
   the cartels, we believe that economics (high gun prices and scarce
   ammunition supplies you are overemphesizing this... this is a current
   issue that has nothing to do with last 3-4 years of arms sales though. )
   may play an equally important part in reducing the flow of U.S. guns to
   Mexico IN THE FUTURE (or at least while Obama is the President). The laws
   of supply and demand will ensure that the Mexican cartels get their
   ordnance in the most price effective way, and with the current gun and
   ammunition supply issues in the U.S. that will likely mean that an even
   greater amount of that supply will come from outside the U.S. via the gray
   and black arms markets.

    
   Scott Stewart
   STRATFOR
   Office: 814 967 4046
   Cell: 814 573 8297
   scott.stewart@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
    
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1689566_re-s-weekly-for-comment-mexico-economics-and-the-arms-trade-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1689669</id>
    <title>ANALYSIS FOR COMMENT - BULGARIA/RUSSIA: Anti-Russian Bulgaria?
 Don't get your hopes up!
</title>
    <description>   Link: themeData
   Link: colorSchemeMapping

   I had to cut out a LOT of info we have on Borisov simply because I am not
   sure which bits could get us into legal trouble. Nonetheless, a lot of
   that stuff is also weedy, so I think a broader geopolitical discussion is
   not out of place.

   Newly elected Prime Minister of Bulgaria, Boyko Borisov, has in a letter
   on July 13 asked the Economy and Energy Minister Petar Dimitrov to
   temporarily freeze the construction of the Belene nuclear power plant and
   the development of the South Stream natural gas pipeline project. Borisov
   claimed in the letter that the Bulgarian state owned companies involved in
   the two projects were not taking into account the economic crisis in their
   operations, hinting at financial malfeasance. Both the Belene nuclear
   power plant and the South Stream project are being developed in
   cooperation with Russian state owned enterprises, Atomstroyexport and
   Gazprom respectively.

   Russian influence in Bulgaria has always been considered as robust and the
   government of outgoing prime minister Sergei Stanishev did nothing to
   dispel that notion, despite Sofiaa**s entry into the EU in 2007 under his
   leadership and the fact that it had been a member of NATO since 2004.
   Bulgariaa**s relatively eager participation in the South Stream project
   a** Russian alternative to the EUa**s Nabucco project a** has been lauded
   as an example of the close collaboration between Moscow and Sofia and
   proof of Bulgariaa**s a**Trojan Horsea** status within the Western
   Alliance.

   Borisova**s actions, one of his first as incoming prime minister, to
   freeze progress on the two major Russian projects within Bulgaria seem to
   suggest that he will stick to his campaign promise to play by a**EU
   rulesa** on energy policy and reverse his opponenta**s policies of cozying
   up to Russia. He also campaigned that he would not be beholden to Moscow
   and that he would treat Russia just like any other power, thus ending the
   special relationship enjoyed by Sofia and Moscow under Stanisheva**s
   government.

   However, the warm relations between Bulgaria and Russia are not a modern
   phenomenon, nor are they beholden to any particular governmenta**s
   policies. The relationship is rooted in geopolitics and has withstood the
   test of time from the 19th Century until today.

   Bulgaria owes its independence from the Ottoman Empire in late 19th
   Century to Russia which fought the Russo-Turkish War with the intent of
   creating a a**Greater Bulgariaa** with sea access in both the Black Sea
   and the Aegean Sea. The Russian plan for an enlarged Bulgaria, which would
   have given Russia friendly ports in the Mediterranean, backfired by
   alarming Western powers who were forced to intervene, albeit
   diplomatically, during the 1878 Berlin Congress and thus greatly reduced
   Bulgariaa**s territory.

   Russia and Bulgaria continued to have a strong relationship throughout the
   20th Century despite Bulgariaa**s decision to side with the Central Powers
   in the First World War and subsequently the Axis in the Second. As an
   example of its strong link to Moscow, Bulgaria refused to join the attack
   against the Soviet Union despite being officially allied with Nazi
   Germany. The subsequent communist period in Bulgaria, while not remembered
   with nostalgia, does not elicit the same kind of knee jerk anti-Russian
   feelings as in much the rest of Central and Eastern Europe. Bulgaria was a
   loyal member of the Soviet Bloc with no uprisings against Moscowa**s
   regional hegemony.

   The oft stated reason for Bulgariaa**s affinity towards Russia are the
   cultural and religious ties between the two countries and these certainly
   work well to grease the wheels of the relationship.  However, in reality,
   Bulgariaa**s interests are rooted in its geopolitical circumstances.
   Surrounded by entities who have historically been stronger and sometimes
   outright aggressive towards it -- namely Turkey/Ottoman Empire to the
   South, Romania to the north and Yugoslavia/Serbia to the West, Bulgaria
   has often relied on Russia to play the role of its protector and champion
   in the region.  Meanwhile, from the Russian perspective, Bulgaria affords
   it a foothold in the Balkans, much more reliable than the often too
   independently minded Serbia and Romania, both of which had plans of their
   own to become regional hegemons. 

   Borisova**s initial moves against Russian projects in Bulgaria should
   therefore not be taken to signal a fundamental shift in Bulgariaa**s
   relations with Russia. Borisova**s government may temper some of the overt
   signs of this strong relationship, but his move to freeze progress on
   South Stream and the Belene power plant is more likely about rooting out
   his predecessora**s control of those lucrative projects than about
   fundamentally moving Bulgaria away from Russia.  Once Borisov feels that
   he and his power base are sufficiently in control of all aspects of the
   Sofia-Moscow relationship, it is very likely that Bulgaria will continue
   to be one of Russia's strongest allies within the EU and NATO.
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1689669_analysis-for-comment-bulgaria-russia-anti-russian-bulgaria.html</permalink>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1689696</id>
    <title>Re: ANALYST FOR EDIT - BULGARIA/RUSSIA: Anti-Russian Bulgaria?
 Don't get your hopes up!
</title>
    <description>   on it; eta for fact check: 5-5:30 (juggling edits)

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "analysts" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, July 13, 2009 3:59:38 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: ANALYST FOR EDIT - BULGARIA/RUSSIA: Anti-Russian Bulgaria? Don't
   get your hopes up!

   For posting tomorrow morning...

   Note to copyeditor: CHRIS, as our resident Bulgarian expert, please feel
   free to change anything you may think needs changing, but do let me check
   it out before it posts in that case. I will be online at the usual 6:30am,
   so I should be available for any chat you may want to have.

   Newly elected Prime Minister of Bulgaria, Boyko Borisov, has in a letter
   on July 13 asked the Economy and Energy Minister Petar Dimitrov to
   temporarily freeze the construction of the Belene nuclear power plant and
   the development of the South Stream natural gas pipeline project. Borisov
   claimed in the letter that the Bulgarian state owned companies involved in
   the two projects were not taking into account the economic crisis in their
   operations, hinting at financial malfeasance. Both the Belene nuclear
   power plant and the South Stream project are being developed in
   cooperation with Russian state owned enterprises, Atomstroyexport and
   Gazprom respectively.

   Russian influence in Bulgaria has always been considered as robust and the
   government of outgoing prime minister Sergei Stanishev did nothing to
   dispel that notion, despite Sofiaa**s entry into the EU in 2007 under his
   leadership and the fact that it had been a member of NATO since 2004.
   Bulgaria was seen as a key target for NATO and EU membership so that the
   West could block off the rest of the Balkans from Russian influence. From
   Sofiaa**s perspective, with its traditional ally Russia weakened
   throughout the 1990s and in early 2000s, there seemed to be no alternative
   to the Western alliances which promised investment and development.
   Bulgariaa**s relatively eager participation in the South Stream project
   a** Russian alternative to the EUa**s Nabucco project a** however, has
   been lauded as an example of the continuing close collaboration between
   Moscow and Sofia and proof of Bulgariaa**s a**Trojan Horsea** status
   within the Western alliances, a staunch Russian ally that West was eager,
   perhaps too eager, to envelop within its sphere.

   Borisova**s actions, one of his first as incoming prime minister, to
   freeze progress on the two major Russian projects within Bulgaria seem to
   suggest that he will stick to his campaign promise to play by a**EU
   rulesa** on energy policy and reverse his opponenta**s policies of cozying
   up to Russia. He also campaigned on the idea that he would not be beholden
   to Moscow and that he would treat Russia just like any other power, thus
   ending any semblance of a special relationship between the EU member
   Bulgaria and Russia enjoyed under Stanisheva**s government.

   However, the warm relations between Bulgaria and Russia are not a modern
   phenomenon, nor are they beholden to any particular governmenta**s
   policies. The relationship is rooted in geopolitics and has withstood the
   test of time from the 19th Century until today.

   Bulgaria owes its independence from the Ottoman Empire in late 19th
   Century to Russia which fought the Russo-Turkish War with the intent of
   creating a a**Greater Bulgariaa** with sea access in both the Black Sea
   and the Aegean Sea. The Russian plan for an enlarged Bulgaria, which would
   have given Russia friendly ports in the Mediterranean, backfired when
   Western Powers alarmed by the prospect intervened, albeit diplomatically,
   and greatly reduced Bulgariaa**s territory in the 1878 Berlin Congress.

   Russia and Bulgaria continued to have a strong relationship throughout the
   20th Century despite Bulgariaa**s decision to side with the Central Powers
   in the First World War and subsequently the Axis in the Second. As an
   example of its strong link to Moscow, Bulgaria refused to join the attack
   against the Soviet Union despite being officially allied with Nazi
   Germany. The subsequent communist period in Bulgaria, while not remembered
   with nostalgia, does not elicit the same kind of knee jerk anti-Russian
   feelings as in much the rest of Central and Eastern Europe. Bulgaria was a
   loyal member of the Soviet Bloc with no uprisings against Moscowa**s
   regional hegemony.

   The oft stated reason for Bulgariaa**s affinity towards Russia are the
   cultural and religious ties between the two countries and these certainly
   work well to grease the wheels of the relationship.  However, in reality,
   Bulgariaa**s interests are rooted in its geopolitical circumstances.
   Surrounded by entities who have historically been stronger and sometimes
   outright aggressive towards it -- namely Turkey/Ottoman Empire to the
   South, Romania to the north and Yugoslavia/Serbia to the West, Bulgaria
   has often relied on Russia to play the role of its protector and champion
   in the region.  Meanwhile, from the Russian perspective, Bulgaria affords
   it a foothold in the Balkans, much more reliable than the often too
   independently minded Serbia and Romania, both of which have/had plans of
   their own to become regional hegemons. Furthermore, Bulgaria, when overtly
   allied with Russia, affords Moscow control of essentially the entire
   non-Turkish controlled Black Sea coastline.

   Borisova**s initial moves against Russian projects in Bulgaria should
   therefore not be taken to signal a fundamental shift in Bulgariaa**s
   relations with Russia. Borisova**s government may temper some of the overt
   signs of this strong relationship, and recommit Sofia towards its Western
   Alliances. However, Borisova**s moves to freeze progress on South Stream
   and the Belene power plant are more likely about rooting out his
   predecessora**s control of those lucrative projects than about
   fundamentally moving Bulgaria away from Russia.

    

    

    

    

     
</description>
    <date>2009-07-13 23:01:22</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1689696_re-analyst-for-edit-bulgaria-russia-anti-russian-bulgaria.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>blackburn@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>writers@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1690001</id>
    <title>Re: Tirana update
</title>
    <description>   I think this is worth being written up as a piece ahead of tomorrow's
   protests.

   Is it possible to publish this?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: burton@stratfor.com
   To: "Analysts" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;, "Tactical" &lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2011 1:36:04 PM
   Subject: Tirana update

   From TrapWire --

   Just in from a contact (Former senior law enforcement officer with direct
   access to Opposition party members).

    

   Tirana : 22 Jan 2011 (Situation at 1930 local)

    

   a**         Situation today calm, as Govt declared day of mourning for the
   "martyrs" (Berisha's words).

   a**         The Opposition has been hold-up all day today in Mayor Edi
   Rama's office discussing next steps. There is some reluctance on their
   part as to whether tomorrow's protest should proceed as planned. They have
   apparently received word that many protesters intend to come armed to
   protect themselves against the police.  Rama has commented privately he
   may lead the protest to try and keep them peaceful.

   a**         Despite this, the Opposition continues to insist they will not
   stop actions against the current regime until Berisha resigns. In
   response, Berisha has declared that "anyone touching an official
   government building will meet the same fate as the protestors yesterday."

   a**         Rumblings have started in other major cities throughout
   Albania re. sympathetic protests. Most notably Shkoder, Durres and
   Gjirokaster.

   a**         There are reports of a handful of arrests of senior police
   officials following yesterday's incident. Investigation is now underway as
   to who gave the order to fire upon the crowds.

   a**         Rumors continue to spread within the population that agents of
   the State Intelligence Service (SHISH) had infiltrated the crowds and
   provoked yesterday's violence. (Comment: No proof of this, but would not
   be the first time SHISH was used in this capacity).

   a**         Note: Great deal of fear and apprehension amongst the
   populace, particularly in Tirana. Most still have vivid memories of '90
   and '97. Average Albanian is still well armed following the ransacking of
   weapons depots in '97 and an escalation in violence is not unthinkable.

    

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1690001_re-tirana-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1690016</id>
    <title>Re: Tirana update
</title>
    <description>   I think this is worth being written up as a piece ahead of tomorrow's
   protests.

   Is it possible to publish this?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: burton@stratfor.com
   To: "Analysts" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;, "Tactical" &lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2011 1:36:04 PM
   Subject: Tirana update

   From TrapWire --

   Just in from a contact (Former senior law enforcement officer with direct
   access to Opposition party members).

    

   Tirana : 22 Jan 2011 (Situation at 1930 local)

    

   a**         Situation today calm, as Govt declared day of mourning for the
   "martyrs" (Berisha's words).

   a**         The Opposition has been hold-up all day today in Mayor Edi
   Rama's office discussing next steps. There is some reluctance on their
   part as to whether tomorrow's protest should proceed as planned. They have
   apparently received word that many protesters intend to come armed to
   protect themselves against the police.  Rama has commented privately he
   may lead the protest to try and keep them peaceful.

   a**         Despite this, the Opposition continues to insist they will not
   stop actions against the current regime until Berisha resigns. In
   response, Berisha has declared that "anyone touching an official
   government building will meet the same fate as the protestors yesterday."

   a**         Rumblings have started in other major cities throughout
   Albania re. sympathetic protests. Most notably Shkoder, Durres and
   Gjirokaster.

   a**         There are reports of a handful of arrests of senior police
   officials following yesterday's incident. Investigation is now underway as
   to who gave the order to fire upon the crowds.

   a**         Rumors continue to spread within the population that agents of
   the State Intelligence Service (SHISH) had infiltrated the crowds and
   provoked yesterday's violence. (Comment: No proof of this, but would not
   be the first time SHISH was used in this capacity).

   a**         Note: Great deal of fear and apprehension amongst the
   populace, particularly in Tirana. Most still have vivid memories of '90
   and '97. Average Albanian is still well armed following the ransacking of
   weapons depots in '97 and an escalation in violence is not unthinkable.

    

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 20:40:14</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1690016_re-tirana-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1690024</id>
    <title>ANALYST FOR EDIT - BULGARIA/RUSSIA: Anti-Russian Bulgaria? Don't
 get your hopes up!
</title>
    <description>   Link: themeData
   Link: colorSchemeMapping

   For posting tomorrow morning...

   Note to copyeditor: CHRIS, as our resident Bulgarian expert, please feel
   free to change anything you may think needs changing, but do let me check
   it out before it posts in that case. I will be online at the usual 6:30am,
   so I should be available for any chat you may want to have.

   Newly elected Prime Minister of Bulgaria, Boyko Borisov, has in a letter
   on July 13 asked the Economy and Energy Minister Petar Dimitrov to
   temporarily freeze the construction of the Belene nuclear power plant and
   the development of the South Stream natural gas pipeline project. Borisov
   claimed in the letter that the Bulgarian state owned companies involved in
   the two projects were not taking into account the economic crisis in their
   operations, hinting at financial malfeasance. Both the Belene nuclear
   power plant and the South Stream project are being developed in
   cooperation with Russian state owned enterprises, Atomstroyexport and
   Gazprom respectively.

   Russian influence in Bulgaria has always been considered as robust and the
   government of outgoing prime minister Sergei Stanishev did nothing to
   dispel that notion, despite Sofiaa**s entry into the EU in 2007 under his
   leadership and the fact that it had been a member of NATO since 2004.
   Bulgaria was seen as a key target for NATO and EU membership so that the
   West could block off the rest of the Balkans from Russian influence. From
   Sofiaa**s perspective, with its traditional ally Russia weakened
   throughout the 1990s and in early 2000s, there seemed to be no alternative
   to the Western alliances which promised investment and development.
   Bulgariaa**s relatively eager participation in the South Stream project
   a** Russian alternative to the EUa**s Nabucco project a** however, has
   been lauded as an example of the continuing close collaboration between
   Moscow and Sofia and proof of Bulgariaa**s a**Trojan Horsea** status
   within the Western alliances, a staunch Russian ally that West was eager,
   perhaps too eager, to envelop within its sphere.

   Borisova**s actions, one of his first as incoming prime minister, to
   freeze progress on the two major Russian projects within Bulgaria seem to
   suggest that he will stick to his campaign promise to play by a**EU
   rulesa** on energy policy and reverse his opponenta**s policies of cozying
   up to Russia. He also campaigned on the idea that he would not be beholden
   to Moscow and that he would treat Russia just like any other power, thus
   ending any semblance of a special relationship between the EU member
   Bulgaria and Russia enjoyed under Stanisheva**s government.

   However, the warm relations between Bulgaria and Russia are not a modern
   phenomenon, nor are they beholden to any particular governmenta**s
   policies. The relationship is rooted in geopolitics and has withstood the
   test of time from the 19th Century until today.

   Bulgaria owes its independence from the Ottoman Empire in late 19th
   Century to Russia which fought the Russo-Turkish War with the intent of
   creating a a**Greater Bulgariaa** with sea access in both the Black Sea
   and the Aegean Sea. The Russian plan for an enlarged Bulgaria, which would
   have given Russia friendly ports in the Mediterranean, backfired when
   Western Powers alarmed by the prospect intervened, albeit diplomatically,
   and greatly reduced Bulgariaa**s territory in the 1878 Berlin Congress.

   Russia and Bulgaria continued to have a strong relationship throughout the
   20th Century despite Bulgariaa**s decision to side with the Central Powers
   in the First World War and subsequently the Axis in the Second. As an
   example of its strong link to Moscow, Bulgaria refused to join the attack
   against the Soviet Union despite being officially allied with Nazi
   Germany. The subsequent communist period in Bulgaria, while not remembered
   with nostalgia, does not elicit the same kind of knee jerk anti-Russian
   feelings as in much the rest of Central and Eastern Europe. Bulgaria was a
   loyal member of the Soviet Bloc with no uprisings against Moscowa**s
   regional hegemony.

   The oft stated reason for Bulgariaa**s affinity towards Russia are the
   cultural and religious ties between the two countries and these certainly
   work well to grease the wheels of the relationship.  However, in reality,
   Bulgariaa**s interests are rooted in its geopolitical circumstances.
   Surrounded by entities who have historically been stronger and sometimes
   outright aggressive towards it -- namely Turkey/Ottoman Empire to the
   South, Romania to the north and Yugoslavia/Serbia to the West, Bulgaria
   has often relied on Russia to play the role of its protector and champion
   in the region.  Meanwhile, from the Russian perspective, Bulgaria affords
   it a foothold in the Balkans, much more reliable than the often too
   independently minded Serbia and Romania, both of which have/had plans of
   their own to become regional hegemons. Furthermore, Bulgaria, when overtly
   allied with Russia, affords Moscow control of essentially the entire
   non-Turkish controlled Black Sea coastline.

   Borisova**s initial moves against Russian projects in Bulgaria should
   therefore not be taken to signal a fundamental shift in Bulgariaa**s
   relations with Russia. Borisova**s government may temper some of the overt
   signs of this strong relationship, and recommit Sofia towards its Western
   Alliances. However, Borisova**s moves to freeze progress on South Stream
   and the Belene power plant are more likely about rooting out his
   predecessora**s control of those lucrative projects than about
   fundamentally moving Bulgaria away from Russia.

    

    

    

    

     
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1690024_analyst-for-edit-bulgaria-russia-anti-russian-bulgaria-don-t.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1690368</id>
    <title>Run-in... 
</title>
    <description>   So I met in the lobby yesterday an equity investor from Russia who had a
   few deals here in Kazakhstan, Mattais Westman. When I handed him my card,
   he looked at it funny and asked me if we had met in the past. I told him
   that I didn't think so and we chatted briefly about the fact that there
   really is zero equity of any company here in Kaz.
    
   I ran into him again this morning while I was dashing between meetings
   with BTA, etc. He again commented on how he swore he knew me and I replied
   that his name was familiar, but we have most likely just run into each
   other in Moscow.
    
   So a third time I just ran into him in the elevator &amp; greeted him as
   normally.... This time he glared at me. I tried to make small talk asking
   if he was staying much longer in Almaty. He said it was "none of my
   business" and that it would be "better off if the two of us did not speak"
   if we did see each other again.
    
   I was so confused, so I called godfather who laughed really hard &amp; clued
   me in to who the hell Westman was. I have apparently affronted Westman in
   2 ways...
    
   Westman is Fridman's right hand man.... He moves Alfa's money in and out
   of Russia and does a lot of dirty work for Fridman.... Meaning his hands
   are stained red.
   1)      Westman definitely crossed my name back home this afternoon &amp;
   realized who my godfather was--- who, btw, has helped the gov seize about
   4 billion from Westman's capital group in Moscow.
   2)      Apparently Fridman is seriously unhappy with our Oligarchs series
   and does not like the conclusions we've been pushing about them being
   under state control now.
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-06-24 11:32:30</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1690368_run-in-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>zeihan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1691034</id>
    <title>Re: [TACTICAL] Mohammadi Assassination update
</title>
    <description>responses within

Fred Burton wrote:
&gt; A few other thoughts:
&gt;
&gt; 1) Iranian disinformation?
&gt;   
I think so.
&gt; 2) Perhaps he was a double-agent working for the
&gt; Israelis-Americans-Brits and they knew he was going to defect?
&gt;   
Possible.
&gt; 3) Precision hit has the earmarks of the security services of a number
&gt; of countries, to include HZ.  First, the bombmaker got it right; eyes on
&gt; had to be in play to activate the IED; it worked.
&gt;   
Which would mean it's not Tondar, but doesn't delineate between Israel 
and Iran/HZ
&gt; 4) Perhaps he was the only one reachable or expendable?   The Iranians
&gt; knew he would be linked to the program by association.
&gt;
&gt; 5) Any links between the instant victim and the former university
&gt; professor tied to their nuclear program?
&gt;   
Have not been able to establish any
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; Sean Noonan wrote:
&gt;   
&gt;&gt; and videos:
&gt;&gt; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7a7KxdB9_ck&amp;feature=player_embedded
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOSsrWgSg5A
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0sC-dpKsDs
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Sean Noonan wrote:
&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt; Below I've collected most of the info we have.  Fred says his AP guy
&gt;&gt;&gt; is going to be publishing something that links Mossad to the attack. 
&gt;&gt;&gt; I personally don't buy it.  Mossad uses big explosions when trying to
&gt;&gt;&gt; get major terrorists who very clearly have terrorist
&gt;&gt;&gt; involvement---people they _really_ don't want to miss.  Other
&gt;&gt;&gt; scientists have all been abducted or poison.  If there was US/Israeli
&gt;&gt;&gt; involvement, that's what I think would have happened.  Especially if
&gt;&gt;&gt; this guy was such a strong opposition supporter they could have turned
&gt;&gt;&gt; and exfiltrated him. 
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; AEOI (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran) denied that he was involved
&gt;&gt;&gt; in the nuclear program.  None of his published work is nuclear
&gt;&gt;&gt; related.  Most of his recent work was connected with SESAME-which is a
&gt;&gt;&gt; UNESCO backed synchrotron radiation project.  Many of the Middle East
&gt;&gt;&gt; Scientists involved are linked to gov't atomic programs, including a
&gt;&gt;&gt; dude from AEOI.  It's particle accelerator is based in Syria and was
&gt;&gt;&gt; started in 2002.  I cannot find any info on Mohammadi's travels to or
&gt;&gt;&gt; from there. 
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; I think he was mostly like hit by Iran intel or Hezbollah or some
&gt;&gt;&gt; combination.  If we wanted we could lay out a piece with links to all
&gt;&gt;&gt; recent scientist stuff and recent mossad attacks and compare and
&gt;&gt;&gt; contrast. 
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; *Masoud Ali-Mohammadi Update*
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; *SOURCES:*
&gt;&gt;&gt; Iranian businessman, travels regularly between Tehran and Chicago-
&gt;&gt;&gt; -Hezbollah used in crackdowns on protestors
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; &gt;From Guy at Chapman Uni:
&gt;&gt;&gt; Ali Mohammadi's area of expertise was in Dark Energy and string
&gt;&gt;&gt; theory.  NOT in anything that was remotely related to nuclear
&gt;&gt;&gt; physics.  Pointed out that Iran Atomic Energy Organization came out
&gt;&gt;&gt; and stated that Ali Mohammadi had never worked them.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Ali Mohammadi was very active outside of Iran, particularly with the
&gt;&gt;&gt; SESAME project (Synchrotron-light for Experimental Science and
&gt;&gt;&gt; Applications in the Middle East).  He was the Iranian representative
&gt;&gt;&gt; in the project and routinely interacted with many western scientists
&gt;&gt;&gt; (http://www.sesame.org.jo/Council/CouncilMembers.aspx).
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; On a side note.  Several of the people the Prof speaks to in Iran are
&gt;&gt;&gt; saying that Hezbollah operatives have been transferred to Iran after
&gt;&gt;&gt; the elections and are being used to crack down on the opposition. 
&gt;&gt;&gt; Prof said that he has a picture of Abu Nasser at the bomb scene of Ali
&gt;&gt;&gt; Mohammadi that was posted on FARS but was quickly taken down.  I have
&gt;&gt;&gt; asked for it but has yet to send it to me.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; -He thinks A-dogg's camp had him whacked and thinks HZ operatives did
&gt;&gt;&gt; it.  Hence the comment about the pic of Abu Nasser at the bomb scene.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; You might be interested in the following report from the The Green Path
&gt;&gt;&gt; Movement:
&gt;&gt;&gt; Dr. Ali-Mohammadi?s House Raided Prior to His Assassination
&gt;&gt;&gt;  One day before his assassination, Professor Ali-Mohammadi?s house was
&gt;&gt;&gt; raided by Ministry of Information agents. Also, his documents were
&gt;&gt;&gt; reportedly confiscated.
&gt;&gt;&gt; Moreover, two weeks prior to his assassination the professor resigned
&gt;&gt;&gt; from all responsibilities of cooperating with nuclear organizations.
&gt;&gt;&gt; Following his assassination, the professor?s family was threatened by
&gt;&gt;&gt; intelligence agents in order to prevent the possibility of news
&gt;&gt;&gt; circulating about the raid on the house. There were numerous
&gt;&gt;&gt; intelligence agents present at the scene, even during the memorial
&gt;&gt;&gt; service.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; OSINT:
&gt;&gt;&gt; “Abu Nasser” Hossein in the area.  The blast occurred across the
&gt;&gt;&gt; street from where the dude is standing.  I actually don’t think the
&gt;&gt;&gt; guys in the photos look that alike. 
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://persian2english.com/?p=4012
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://14march.org/news-details.php?nid=MTkxMDI2
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Iran claims Tondar responsible: AKA Iran Royal Association
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/DAH622696.htm
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=117029&amp;sectionid=351020101
&gt;&gt;&gt; &lt;http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=117029&amp;sectionid=351020101&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Tondar- 'killing for democracy'
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LB7XBFn29rg
&gt;&gt;&gt; Interesting blog with lots of info on the assassination—claims that
&gt;&gt;&gt; Tondar’s website is actually run by Iranian intelligence
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://homylafayette.blogspot.com/2010/01/tehran-university-professor-massoud.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Linked with Israeli Scientists (could call them?):
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3833674,00.html
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; ASSASSINATION AND SCIENTIST ABDUCTIONS BACKGROUND:
&gt;&gt;&gt; S4 articles on Mughniyah hit (similar to Salameh hit, 1979 Beirut),
&gt;&gt;&gt; Feb 12, 2008, Damascus:
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/syria_tactical_details_mughniyah_hit
&gt;&gt;&gt; Command detonated IED either in Mughniyah's car or along route he walked
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/hezbollah_deadly_cell_phone_ping
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Scientist Hassanpour- Jan. 25, 2007--poisoned?
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical_diary_israeli_covert_operations_iran
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Hamas official killed with car bomb in his vehicle, Sept. 26, 2004,
&gt;&gt;&gt; Damascus:
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://www.stratfor.com/israel_taking_lesson_experts
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Another possible in Damascus, Dec. 12, 2004
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://www.stratfor.com/bombing_damascus_mossad_or_amateurs
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Three iranian nuclear people disappear- Ashgari, Amiri and
&gt;&gt;&gt; Ardebili--abducted Istanbul, on hajj in KSA and in Georgia:
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20091021_iran_ripple_effects_defection
&gt;&gt;&gt; Ashgari:
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical_diary_iranian_secrets_loose
&gt;&gt;&gt; I have not seen any links between Amiri and Ali-Mohammadi
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt; Sean Noonan
&gt;&gt;&gt; Analyst Development Program
&gt;&gt;&gt; Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt;&gt;&gt; www.stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt; -- 
&gt;&gt; Sean Noonan
&gt;&gt; Analyst Development Program
&gt;&gt; Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt;&gt; www.stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;     

-- 
Sean Noonan
Analyst Development Program
Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-01-27 18:58:17</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1691034_re-tactical-mohammadi-assassination-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1691672</id>
    <title>Re: Albania
</title>
    <description>   Good insight. He put some thought into this.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;, "Marko Papic"
   &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, January 25, 2011 6:09:57 PM
   Subject: Albania

   From TrapWire in response to Marko's questions --
    

   Fred -- Just in. Haven't had time to give a good scrub/spell check etc. so
   might be a bit raw. (His English is excellent, but not perfect).  M

   ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
      

    

    

    

               1. Any thoughts on what repercussions unrest in Albania could
   have for the region as a whole?

    

               Instability in Albania generally means instability within the
   Albanian diaspora in the region.

    

   A.         Kosova: Just came out of general elections and is now facing an
   internal crises . The winning party does not have enough votes to elect a
   PM or create a new government. At the same time, the leadership of the
   winning party has been accused for war crimes and trafficking in human
   organs by a Swiss reporter. These issues have endangered the current
   political process towards Kosovo independence. Negotiations with Serbia
   are now on hold. An unstable political situation in Albania will be a big
   loss for Kosovo. Kosovo has no representation in international
   institutions and Albania is her biggest supporter and ally regarding
   Kosovo foreign policy.  A crisis in Albania will make the dialogue between
   Kosovo and Serbia, which is seeking a division of northern Kosovo.

    

   A.         Macedonia: Our neighboring country has a population of 30%
   Albanians, who have been in constant conflict with the Macedonian
   government regarding their rights as a minority. Macedonian-Albanians are
   divided in to two groups:  one that is more liberal and has assimilated
   into Macedonian society; and the other a much more radical group that is
   in conflict Macedonian policies. Add to this Macedonia's on-going conflict
   with Greece, and one could speculate that any major crisis in Albania will
   only compound the problems inside Macedonia -- particularly for those
   Albanians seeking greater rights inside Macedonia. There is a precedence
   for this problem during the 1997 conflict in Albania.

    

   A.         Greece: Our only neighboring country with EU membership is
   still going through a very bad political and economic crises itself. There
   are almost 1.5 million Albanians living in Greece -- many are illegal
   immigrants working illegally. Another crises in Albania could likely fuel
   another mass exodus to Greece (and Italy) -- particularly now that
   Albanians can finally travel without visas in Europe.   

    

   2.  After 1997 anarchy, weapons flowed across the borders to Kosovo and
   Macedonia. Any chance that another crisis has an effect on neighboring
   countries?

    

               In my opinion, it is unlikely the current situation will
   deteriorate to the point of 1997, which was fueled by economic collapse
   rather than only political differences. Albanians still have strong
   memories and feelings about this period, and would likely try to avoid a
   repeata*|particularly as the only groups who will profit from another
   crises would be the weapons, drugs, and fuel traffickers .

          

    

               3.  What is Berisha's role in neighboring Kosovo and
   Macedonia. Does he have influence with Kosovo leadership? Or Macedonian
   Albanian leadership?

    

               Generally speaking, Berisha does not have much of a role in
   the region. He continues to be viewed as a model of the old leadership.
   Clearly, Kosovo will always          need the support of the Albanian PM
   and his government; however, many Kosovars remember that Berisha gave only
   lukewarm support to the KLA, and was   believed to have profited
   personally by allowing fuel shipments into Serbia and Montenegro, despite
   the NATO embargo at the time. Berisha is still viewed as            
   having too close of ties to Serbia -- one of his closest contacts is Damir
   Fasllic, a character who is believed to have contacts at the highest
   levels of the Serbian           government. Berisha does not appear to
   have particularly strong ties to Macedonia and, with the loss of
   Jukanovic, probably has limited influence in Montenegro as          well

            

    

                4.  If there is a change in government to Edvin Rama, would
   it in any way change the situation in Albania or region?

    

               Edvin Rama is the leader of the Albanian opposition Socialist
   Party -- which represents about 50 % of the Albanian voters. Rama is known
   as a head-strong and       somewhat radical figure amongst the
   international community in Albania. He is not very good at dialoguing --
   often creating situations that neither side can win.           Despite
   these weaknesses, Rama represents the "modern" leader that many Albanians
   have been hoping for since 1990. His work in modernizing and cleaning-up
               the capital has made him very popular, and given him the image
   of someone who can get things done for the people (He has twice been
   re-elected as mayor).          Rama's popularity and modern thinking has
   been commented on favorably by many EU leaders and representatives.

    

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-01-26 01:17:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1691672_re-albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1692977</id>
    <title>Re: Source payments
</title>
    <description>   Well, I only have his one payment in the bank account. So that makes me
   think that I indeed have made a mistake on the expense report. I can send
   you a new one, to just say September-October?

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Jeff Stevens" &lt;jeff.stevens@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, October 1, 2009 3:07:29 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: Source payments

   When you get back we'll sort it out.  It may just be our descriptions that
   are off.  We don't know at this point.  Thanks. 
    
   Jeff Stevens
   Controller
   STRATFOR
   512-744-4327 Tel
   512-925-5616 Cell
   512-744-4334 Fax
   jeff.stevens@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
    
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, October 01, 2009 3:07 PM
   To: Jeff Stevens
   Subject: Re: Source payments
   Hmmm, that is my mistake then. I thought the last payment was for July.

   I don't have receipts yet because I can't get the money to the source from
   Switzerland. When I get to Austin, I will send him all that we owe him and
   then give you receipts (as always).

   In this case, since I made a mistake on this month and double-counted
   August, it means we have the payment for October done.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Jeff Stevens" &lt;jeff.stevens@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, October 1, 2009 2:53:05 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Source payments

   We have a $600 charge for August in August and $1,200 in September for
   August &amp; September.  Do you have receipts for these because it appears we
   may have paid August twice.  We always need receipts to verify these by
   the way.
    
   Thanks,
    
   Jeff Stevens
   Controller
   STRATFOR
   512-744-4327 Tel
   512-925-5616 Cell
   512-744-4334 Fax
   jeff.stevens@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
    
    
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1692977_re-source-payments-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>jeff.stevens@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1693295</id>
    <title></title>
    <description>Thank you again.



On Jan 27, 2011, at 7:30 AM, Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

&gt; From TrapWire --
&gt; 
&gt; ------------------------------------------------------------------------
&gt; 
&gt; Source advised no change yet (as of 0400 this morning) in Rama's planned
&gt; protest.
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; Source is meeting with someone close to the opposition leadership today
&gt; and will advise if any change.  M
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; 
</description>
    <date>2011-01-27 14:38:06</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1693295_.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1694449</id>
    <title>DISCUSSION - New EU Commission
</title>
    <description>   Resending

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "analysts" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, November 28, 2009 11:00:04 AM GMT -06:00 Central America
   Subject: DISCUSSION - New EU Commission

   Ok, so the new EU Commission has been announced.

   What is the relevance of this EU Commission? Well for one, the Germans and
   the French have LOCKED DOWN the two key posts: internal market and
   energy!  How did they do this? By brilliant manuvering. They gave the
   Poles the EP Presidency, which Warsaw thought was uber important but is
   mainly ceremonial. That was the first key EU post and they gave it to the
   Poles first, who bought it like crazy. Then they got UK out of EU's
   internal business by giving London the FM post. This was not as "cheap" as
   the EP President, BUT it gave the post to a relative unknown Brit who is
   from Labor and now owes her relevancy completely to the EU.

   BRILLIANT.

   Here are the next steps:

     * 11-19 Jan. 2010: Hearings with the newly-nominated commissioners
       in the European Parliament.
     * 26 Jan. 2010: Final vote of the European Parliament on the full
       Commission (9.00-11.00 debate in plenary; 11.00-12.00 political group
       meetings; 12.00-13.00 vote in plenary). 
     * 1 Feb. 2010: New Commission expected to take office.
   Entire line up (my comments in orange):

   The appointments in full:

     * JosA(c) Manuel Barroso (Portugal): President With Van Rompuy as EU
       President, Barroso still retains power. Imagine if Blair was EU
       President. It would be Barroso who?
     * Joaquin Almunia (Spain): Competition  According to EU sources, he is
       loyal to Barroso (makes sense, they are Iberian). He is also a bad
       ass. Expect him to take member states to court if he deems they are
       being protectionist. Will piss off Berlin and Paris for sure.
     * Catherine Ashton (UK): Foreign Affairs High Representative As I said,
       this was a great choice for Berlin and Paris. They get UK off of their
       hands with a post that will not let UK meddle in EU internal affairs.
     * Michel Barnier (France): Internal Market and Services BOOM. This shows
       how RETARDED Brown is. He installed a relative unknown who may go
       "native" into the FM post and gave up the internal market and services
       to the FRENCH!!! The City of London is PISSED.
     * Olli Rehn (Finland): Economic and Monetary Affairs Former Enlargement
       guy gets this post, also loyal to Barroso, will undoubtedly piss off
       Berlin and Paris.
     * Dacian Ciolos (Romania): Agriculture
     * John Dalli (Malta): Health and Consumer Policy Wow... granted, the
       Maltese are super health conscious, so if you're Monsanto or Sagenta,
       you are NOT happy.
     * Karel De Gucht (Belgium): Trade
     * Stefan FA 1/4le (Czech Republic): Enlargement This was something that
       was discussed. A new member state gets the enlargement portfolio. Nice
       compromise here as well, since Prague is not as crazy about
       Ukraine/Georgia
     * Connie Hedegaard (Denmark): Climate Action Denmark gets climate
       action, poignant.
     * Maire Geoghegan-Quinn (Ireland): Research and Innovation
     * Janusz Lewandowski (Poland): Budget/Financial Programming
     * Guenther Oettinger (Germany): Energy HUUUUUGE... Germany gets a key
       post and screws Central Europeans completely
     * Janez Potocnik (Slovenia): Environment Slovenians got on the whole
       "green" bandwaggon first, so this is cute.
     * Neelie Kroes (Netherlands): Digital Agenda
     * LA!szlA^3 Andor (Hungary): Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion Oh
       God... Hungarians in charge of employment...
     * Maria Damanaki (Greece): Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Makes sense.
     * Johannes Hahn (Austria): Regional Policy Tame choice.
     * Rumiana Jeleva (Bulgaria): International Cooperation, Humanitarian Aid
       and Crisis Response
     * Siim Kallas (Estonia): Transport
     * Cecilia MalmstrAP:m (Sweden): Home Affairs
     * Andris Piebalgs (Latvia): Development
     * Viviane Reding (Luxembourg): Justice, Fundamental Rights and
       Citizenship
     * Algirdas AA emeta (Lithuania): Taxation and Customs Union
     * Antonio Tajani (Italy): Industry and Entrepreneurship This is usually
       the DG that fights with all the free market DGs, so Italian running it
       is a key.
     * Androulla Vassiliou (Cyprus): Education, Culture, Multilingualism and
       Youth  
     * Maros Sefcovic (Slovakia): Interinstitutional Relations and
       Administration
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-24 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1694449_discussion-new-eu-commission-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1695313</id>
    <title>Re: Albania
</title>
    <description>   According to the AP, "The Prosecutor General's office said arrest warrants
   had been issued for six officers of the National Guard, army troops under
   Interior Ministry command who guard government institutions and senior
   officials."

   On 1/22/11 9:42 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     Is there a chance The cops were not actually the ones who killed the
     three? I didnt see any reports or photos indicating the riot police even
     had guns. And the type of pistol used to fire the rounds was listed in
     an article yesterday. I know nothing about guns so am of no use here,
     but would it be helpful to know The kind of firearm used?

     Either way, doesnt matter. All that matters is the political angle and
     the fact that the opposition perceives the police to be culpable

     Btw artillery?!

     On 2011 Jan 22, at 08:51, Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

         From TrapWire contact (former CIA clandestine officer)

       Not sure if STRATFOR's following events there -- but I chatted with
       some
       contacts in Tirana and tomorrow (Sunday) protests are expected to be
       even larger than yesterday's -- with many in the crowd bent on
       retaliation for the police killing of three protestors. (As always,
       rumor mills are in overdrive in the Balkans with claims being made
       that
       the cops targeted these protestors for assassination. No proof yet
       that
       that's the case. Having dealt with Albanian cops for three years, I
       can
       assure you though they don't need much pushing to draw their weapons.
       They actually fired artillery rounds onto protestors during the chaos
       of
       '97). Tough times in Tirana right now.

       Mike

 --
 Alex Hayward
 STRATFOR Research Intern
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 18:44:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1695313_re-albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alex.hayward@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1695328</id>
    <title>Re: Tirana update
</title>
    <description>   Can we publish? As an update?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: burton@stratfor.com
   To: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2011 1:49:30 PM
   Subject: Re: Tirana update

   Have asked

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2011 13:44:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Burton Fred&lt;fred.burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Tirana update
   Is this a U.S. or an Albanian LE source?

   And if U.S., what is he doing with the opposition groups?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: burton@stratfor.com, "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "Tactical" &lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2011 1:40:14 PM
   Subject: Re: Tirana update

   I think this is worth being written up as a piece ahead of tomorrow's
   protests.

   Is it possible to publish this?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: burton@stratfor.com
   To: "Analysts" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;, "Tactical" &lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2011 1:36:04 PM
   Subject: Tirana update

   From TrapWire --

   Just in from a contact (Former senior law enforcement officer with direct
   access to Opposition party members).

    

   Tirana : 22 Jan 2011 (Situation at 1930 local)

    

   a**         Situation today calm, as Govt declared day of mourning for the
   "martyrs" (Berisha's words).

   a**         The Opposition has been hold-up all day today in Mayor Edi
   Rama's office discussing next steps. There is some reluctance on their
   part as to whether tomorrow's protest should proceed as planned. They have
   apparently received word that many protesters intend to come armed to
   protect themselves against the police.  Rama has commented privately he
   may lead the protest to try and keep them peaceful.

   a**         Despite this, the Opposition continues to insist they will not
   stop actions against the current regime until Berisha resigns. In
   response, Berisha has declared that "anyone touching an official
   government building will meet the same fate as the protestors yesterday."

   a**         Rumblings have started in other major cities throughout
   Albania re. sympathetic protests. Most notably Shkoder, Durres and
   Gjirokaster.

   a**         There are reports of a handful of arrests of senior police
   officials following yesterday's incident. Investigation is now underway as
   to who gave the order to fire upon the crowds.

   a**         Rumors continue to spread within the population that agents of
   the State Intelligence Service (SHISH) had infiltrated the crowds and
   provoked yesterday's violence. (Comment: No proof of this, but would not
   be the first time SHISH was used in this capacity).

   a**         Note: Great deal of fear and apprehension amongst the
   populace, particularly in Tirana. Most still have vivid memories of '90
   and '97. Average Albanian is still well armed following the ransacking of
   weapons depots in '97 and an escalation in violence is not unthinkable.

    

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1695328_re-tirana-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1695343</id>
    <title></title>
    <description>   It would be to crack down on protesters, yes. 
   And I disagree. From Tiranas perspective it is better to crack down early
   and hard. 

   On Jan 22, 2011, at 3:24 PM, Bayless Parsley
   &lt;bayless.parsley@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

          Rumors continue to spread within the population that agents of the
     State Intelligence Service (SHISH) had infiltrated the crowds and
     provoked yesterday's violence. (Comment: No proof of this, but would not
     be the first time SHISH was used in this capacity).
     Would SHISH be trying to instigate violence so as to justify a govt
     crackdown on socialists? Seems like that is an unnecessary risk... No
     one wants civil war when youre The one actually in power already.
      
     On 2011 Jan 22, at 13:36, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

       From TrapWire --
       Just in from a contact (Former senior law enforcement officer with
       direct access to Opposition party members).
        
       Tirana : 22 Jan 2011 (Situation at 1930 local)
        
       a**         Situation today calm, as Govt declared day of mourning for
       the "martyrs" (Berisha's words).
       a**         The Opposition has been hold-up all day today in Mayor Edi
       Rama's office discussing next steps. There is some reluctance on their
       part as to whether tomorrow's protest should proceed as planned. They
       have apparently received word that many protesters intend to come
       armed to protect themselves against the police.  Rama has commented
       privately he may lead the protest to try and keep them peaceful.
       a**         Despite this, the Opposition continues to insist they will
       not stop actions against the current regime until Berisha resigns. In
       response, Berisha has declared that "anyone touching an official
       government building will meet the same fate as the protestors
       yesterday."
       a**         Rumblings have started in other major cities throughout
       Albania re. sympathetic protests. Most notably Shkoder, Durres and
       Gjirokaster.
       a**         There are reports of a handful of arrests of senior police
       officials following yesterday's incident. Investigation is now
       underway as to who gave the order to fire upon the crowds.
       a**         Rumors continue to spread within the population that
       agents of the State Intelligence Service (SHISH) had infiltrated the
       crowds and provoked yesterday's violence. (Comment: No proof of this,
       but would not be the first time SHISH was used in this capacity).
       a**         Note: Great deal of fear and apprehension amongst the
       populace, particularly in Tirana. Most still have vivid memories of
       '90 and '97. Average Albanian is still well armed following the
       ransacking of weapons depots in '97 and an escalation in violence is
       not unthinkable.
        
       Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 22:36:48</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1695343_.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1695941</id>
    <title>Re: Possible Analysis...
</title>
    <description>   I think this is a nice angle.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Eugene Chausovsky" &lt;eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Peter Zeihan" &lt;zeihan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;, "Lauren Goodrich"
   &lt;goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;, "Peter Zeihan" &lt;peter.zeihan@stratfor.com&gt;,
   "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, December 3, 2009 8:08:04 AM GMT -06:00 Central America
   Subject: Re: Possible Analysis...

   Yes, but i would go beyond saying 'even' to 'especially' law enforcement
   is politicized...

   Peter Zeihan wrote:

     hehe - i'm a little sick of that angle myself, but ur right that this
     could be a good way to highlight it from the underbelly

     so ur thinking of what, a para on the rift and using this as a case
     study to show how even 'law enforcement' (only used quotes because this
     straddles the line between crime and terror) is politicized?

     Reva Bhalla wrote:

       i think that's a pretty neat angle
       On Dec 3, 2009, at 7:59 AM, Eugene Chausovsky wrote:

         What about from the angle that the investigations into the attack
         are indicative of the political rift within Russia - Putin and Med
         want this to blow away, but the FSB are all over it, as well as the
         possible backlash against Surkov.

         Peter Zeihan wrote:

           that's the problem -- too many culprits and based on who did it
           there are a wide divergence of actions that will be taken

           from what we have here the russians really don't have any leads
           two weeks after the events, so its really not worth going thru all
           the suspects

           Reva Bhalla wrote:

             i just think it would be useful to other readers to gain insight
             on teh culprits the russians are seriously considering. its an
             anomalous event, even Putin is talking about, the concern for
             Islamist terrorism is there. Lauren's got the scoop on what
             exactly they're investigating. we can always update as we get
             more info on who they narrow it down to
             On Dec 3, 2009, at 7:35 AM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

               great for client, but i don't see an angle we need to do for a
               piece until they know who did it

               once that happens, then its a slam dunk because we already
               know what the consequences will be

               Lauren Goodrich wrote:

                 **we had a client who had alot of questions on the train
                 bombing in Russia, so I started sorting through it all for
                 them and with godfather.... it ended up being a prototype
                 analysis that just needs to be written through....
                 lots of little details in this one, so don't hesitate to
                 call me.

                  
                 LG: Okay, Korenaa*| I have been meaning to send all this out
                 as insight, since have a lot of information &amp; analytical
                 conclusions on this topic...
                  
                 Right now the Prosecutor Generala**s office is looking at
                 two very different groups as possibly behind the train
                 bombing. They are leaving their options open to a wildcard
                 possibility, but nothing has leapt out yet.
                  
                 THE FASCIST GROUP CLAIMS:
                  
                 First off, the Combat 18 group that initially took credit
                 for the bombing was bunk. I said from the beginning that the
                 Prosecutor Generala**s office was very wary of their claim
                 behind the attack. Combat 18 really doesna**t have the
                 capability to pull off something even as crude as this.
                  
                 Now this doesna**t mean that a right wing group isna**t
                 behind the attack. Russia has two fascistsa**Nikita Tikhonov
                 and Yevgenia Khasis-- under arrest for other murders of some
                 human rights activists. Their radical nationalist
                 groupsa**Russian Image and Russian Verdicta**have had
                 rumblings that they could have pulled off the attack as
                 well. Though neither group has come out and claimed
                 responsibility. (not for publishingA ) This would be very
                 bad if they were tied to the train bombings since both
                 groups were once Kremlin supported, though the Kremlin no
                 longer holds ties since they are off the deep end in violent
                 acts around Russia.
                  
                 The theory behind Comabt 18, Russiaa**s Image or Russiaa**s
                 Verdict being behind the attacks would be to try to make it
                 look like the Caucasus groups did it. They are all highly
                 anti-immigrants and their violent acts in Russia are
                 becoming more regular.
                  
                 THE CAUCASUS CLAIMS:
                  
                 No, the more likely answer is that one of the Caucasus
                 groups or Caucasus lone wolfs is behind the attack. This is
                 where the Interior Ministry and FSB are putting their main
                 efforts.
                  
                 The letter sent to KavKazCenter is thus far pretty credible.
                 KavKazCenter is the portal for most chatter from
                 Caucasusa**especially Chechena**extremists. There are a few
                 problems with their claim, but it doesna**t mean that it is
                 completely bunk.
                  
                 First off, the internet IP signature is similar to those who
                 claimed the Dam attack in August, which wasna**t even a
                 terrorist attack (not even close). But this is the same
                 similar signature for other attacks in the past, which did
                 occur. They also claimed responsibility for the
                 assassination attempt on Yunus-Bek Yekurov, so it seems they
                 want to claim responsibility for everythinga*|.. which is
                 why the Prosecutor Generala**s office is wary to be so
                 convinced of their claims without further proof.  
                  
                 Second, this group claims to be loyal to Doku Umarov, who
                 may be dead or dyinga*| it is known that D. Umarov was badly
                 shot in June and no one has heard from him since. Kadyrov
                 believes he is dead, but there is no body yet, so who knows.
                  
                 But there are a few reasons why this group may be telling
                 the truth:
                  
                 Those arrested in the 2007 train bombing claim to have been
                 tied to this group and the explosive devices between the
                 2007 and 2009 train bombings are very similar.
                  
                 Second, this group claimed in August that it would start
                 going after economic targets [Stratfor piece on it:
                 http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090821_russia_chechen_economic_war_threat]
                 . We havena**t seen it yet. If they are truly behind this
                 bombing, then this will be their first attack behind their
                 August proclamation. Nevsky Express is a prime economic
                 target because it is 1) full of Russian &amp; foreign
                 businessmen 2) is near the 2 capitals 3) is easy to pull off
                 4) theya**ve pulled it off before 5) will make major
                 headlines, unlike attacks in the Caucasus.
                  
                 WARINESS BEHIND CLAIMS: Then again, the Prosecutor General
                 told me to be careful in proclaiming this was the Caucasus
                 groups making good on their August threat. They are still
                 entertaining the lone wolf scenarioa*|. This track is easy
                 to bomb and any lone Chechen outside of Moscow could have
                 done it.
                  
                 THE OTHER TRAIN ATTACK: Thus far there is no connection
                 between this attack and the one on the train heading for
                 Baku, the Prosecutor General says. That one looks much more
                 like Daghestani militants who are really ticked off at
                 Azerbaijan right now.
                  
                 RUSSIAN RESPONSES TO THE ATTACK:
                  
                 First off Medvedev and Putin want this whole thing to go
                 away and get out of the media. That is why Medvedev is
                 pushing the a**quick time linea** for investigations. The
                 sooner it gets out of the media the sooner the Russian
                 people will forget it (esp since this isna**t the first
                 attack on this train).
                 The FSB are the ones who are taking this attack very
                 seriously and they want to go all out on whoever was behind
                 ita*| problem is that they need to know who did it first.
                 If it does get proven that it was the Caucasus group from
                 Chechnya, then the FSB wants Kadyrov to unleash hell inside
                 Chechnya. They also want to scare Kadyrov for allowing such
                 an attack to happen. The FSB is not happy right now.
                  
                 ONE MORE SIDENOTE: if the Caucasus group or the neo-nazis
                 are ever proven behind this attack, then watch for some
                 backlash against Surkov. Remember that Surkov is in charge
                 of both Chechnya/Kadyrov and the nationalists (even the
                 neo-nazis)a*| hea**ll need to prove he has them all under
                 control. That is why Surkov is very interested in some lone
                 wolf pulling this attack off while pretending to be part of
                 one of the other groups.
                  
                  

                 --
                 Lauren Goodrich
                 Director of Analysis
                 Senior Eurasia Analyst
                 STRATFOR
                 T: 512.744.4311
                 F: 512.744.4334
                 lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
                 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1695941_re-possible-analysis-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>zeihan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>peter.zeihan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1695986</id>
    <title>Re: Re-worked S-weekly
</title>
    <description>   I still don't understand why we at all refer to the domestic debate on gun
   control in this analysis. That is a domestic politics issue, and not just
   ANY domestic politics issue, but one with the most ideological character.
   If we stray away from global warming in our analyses, then we should do
   the same with gun control. It does not actually add anything to the
   analysis, which otherwise points to some very key issues of arms
   trafficking in Mexico, and erodes our reputation as a neutral voice.

   Other than that, the rest is fine.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Stephen Meiners" &lt;meiners@stratfor.com&gt;, "Marko Papic"
   &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;, "Nate Hughes" &lt;nathan.hughes@stratfor.com&gt;,
   "Peter Zeihan" &lt;zeihan@stratfor.com&gt;, "Karen Hooper"
   &lt;karen.hooper@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, July 8, 2009 8:47:40 AM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re-worked S-weekly

   Please comment quickly so I can get it to the writers.

    

   Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

    

   On June 26, the small town of Apaseo el Alto, Guanajuato state, Mexico,
   was the scene of a [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090629_mexico_security_memo_june_29_2009
   ]  brief but deadly firefight between members of Los Zetas and federal and
   local security forces.  The engagement began when a joint patrol of
   Mexican soldiers and law enforcement officers responded to a report of
   heavily armed men at a suspected drug safe-house. When the patrol arrived,
   a 20 minute firefight erupted between the security forces and gunmen in
   the house, as well as several suspects in two vehicles that threw
   fragmentation grenades as they attempted to escape.

   When the shooting stopped, twelve gunmen were dead and twelve had been
   taken into custody, while several soldiers and police were reported
   wounded. At least half the detained suspects admitted to being members of
   Los Zetas. 

   When authorities examined the house they discovered a mass grave that
   contained the remains of an undetermined number of people (perhaps 14 or
   15) who are believed to have been executed and then burned beyond
   recognition by Los Zetas.  The house also contained a large cache of
   weapons, including assault rifles and fragmentation grenades. Such [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/mexico_coming_fight_control_matamoros ] military
   ordnance is frequently used by Los Zetas and the enforcers who work for
   their rival cartels.

   STRATFOR has been [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/theme/tracking_mexicos_drug_cartels ] closely
   following the cartel violence in Mexico for several years now, and
   certainly the events that transpired in Apaseo el Alto are by no means
   unique. It is not uncommon for the Mexican authorities to engage in large
   firefights with cartel groups, encounter mass graves or [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20081112_worrying_signs_border_raids ]
   recover large caches of arms.  The recovery of these weapons does,
   however, provide an opportunity to once again focus on the dynamics of
   Mexicoa**s arms trade.

    

   White Black and Shades of Gray

    

   Before we get down in the weeds in Mexicoa**s arms flow, leta**s do
   something just a little different and first take a brief look at how arms
   trafficking works on a larger global and regional scale. Doing so will
   help better illustrate how the arms trafficking in Mexico fits into these
   broader patterns.

    

   When analysts examine arms sales they look at three general categories,
   the white arms, market, the gray arms market and the black arms market.
   The white arms market is the totally legal, above board transfer of
   weapons in accordance with the national laws of the parties involved and
   international treaties or restrictions. The parties in a white arms deal
   will file the proper paperwork to include end-user certificates noting
   what is being sold who is selling it and who it is going to.  There is an
   understanding that the receiving party does not intend to transfer the
   weapons to a third party. So for example, if the Mexican Army wants to buy
   an order of assault rifles from German arms maker Heckler and Koch, it
   places the order with the company and fills out all the required
   paperwork, to include getting permission for the sale from the German
   government.     

    

   Now, the white arms market can be deceived and manipulated, and when this
   happens, we get the gray market a** literally white arms that are shifted
   into the hands of someone other than the purported recipient. On of the
   classic ways to do this is to either falsify an end user certificate or to
   bribe an official in a third country to sign an end user certificate but
   then allow a shipment of arms to pass through a country en route to a
   third location. This type of transaction is frequently used in cases where
   there are international arms embargoes against a particular country (like
   Liberia) or where it is illegal to sell arms to a militant group (such as
   the FARC.)  On example of this would be Ukrainian small arms that were on
   paper supposed to go to CA'te d'Ivoire, but that were really transferred
   in violation of UN arms embargoes to Liberia and Sierra Leone. Another
   example of this would be the government of Peru ostensibly purchasing
   thousands of surplus East German assault rifles from Jordan on the white
   arms market but then those rifles slipped into the gray arms world when
   they were dropped at airstrips in the jungles of Colombia for use by the
   FARC instead of being delivered to the Peruvian military.

    

   At the far end of the spectrum is the black arms market where the guns are
   contraband from the get go and all the business is conducted under the
   board. There are no end user certificates and the weapons are smuggled
   covertly. Examples of this would be the smuggling of arms from the Former
   Soviet Union (FSU) and Afghanistan into Europe through places like Kosovo
   and Slovenia, or the smuggling of arms into South America from Asia, the
   FSU and Middle East by Hezbollah and criminal gangs in the Tri-Border
   Region.

    

   Nation states will often use the gray and black arms markets in order to
   support allies, undermine opponents or otherwise pursue their national
   interests. This was clearly revealed in the Iran-Contra scandal of the mid
   1980a**s but Iran-Contra only scratched the surface of the arms smuggling
   that occurred during the Cold War.  Untold tons of military ordnance was
   delivered by the U.S. and the Soviet Union and Cuba to their respective
   allies in Latin America during the Cold War.

   This quantity of materiel shipped into Latin America during the Cold War
   brings up another very important point pertaining to weapons. Unlike
   drugs, which are consumable goods, firearms are durable goods. This means
   that they can be useful for decades and are frequently shipped from
   conflict zone to conflict zone. East German MPiKMS and MPiKM assault
   rifles are still floating around the worlda**s arms markets years after
   the German Democratic Republic ceased to exist.  In fact, visiting an arms
   bazaar in a place like Yemen is like visiting an arms museum. One can
   encounter functional century-old Lee-Enfield and Springfield rifles in a
   rack next to a modern U.S. M-4 rifle or a German HK 93, and those next to
   brand-new, just out of the box, Chinese Type 56 and 81 assault rifles.  

    

   There is often a correlation between arms and drug smuggling. In many
   instances the same routes used to smuggle drugs are also used to smuggle
   arms. In some instances, like the smuggling routes from Central Asia to
   Europe, the flow of guns and drugs flows in the same direction, and they
   are both sold in Western Europe for cash.  In the case of Latin American
   cocaine, the drugs tend to flow in one direction (towards the U.S. and
   Europe) while guns from the U.S. and Russian organized crime groups flow
   in the other direction, and often times the guns are used as whole or
   partial payment for the drugs.

    

   Illegal drugs are not the only thing traded for guns.  During the Cold War
   there was a robust arms-for-sugar trade going on between the Cubans and
   Vietnamese. As a result, Marxist groups all over Latin America were
   furnished with U.S. materiel either captured or left behind when the
   Americans withdrew from the country.  LAW rockets traced to U.S. military
   stocks sent to Vietnam were used in several attacks by Latin American
   Marxist groups. These Vietnam-war vintage weapons still crop up with some
   frequency in Mexico, Colombia and other parts of the region. Cold-war era
   weapons furnished to the likes of the Contras, the Sandinistas, the FMLN
   and URNG in the 1980a**s are also frequently encountered in the region.

    

   After the civil wars ended in places like El Salvador and Guatemala, the
   governments and international community attempted to institute arms
   by-back programs, but those programs were not very successful and most of
   the guns turned in were very old a** the better arms were cached by groups
   or kept by individuals.  These guns have found their way in dribs and
   drabs back onto the black arms market

    

   Over 90%?

    

   For several years now, Mexican officials have been making public
   statements that [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/mexico_dynamics_gun_trade ] over 90 percent
   of the arms used by criminals in Mexico come from the U.S.  Last month,
   that  number was echoed in a report by the Government Accountability
   Office (GAO) report on U.S. efforts to Combat Arms Trafficking to Mexico
   (see external link).

    

     External link http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09709.pdf

     

   The GAO report stated that in 2008, some 30,000 firearms were seized from
   criminals by Mexican officials. Out of these 30,000 firearms, information
   pertaining to 7,200 of them, (24 percent) was submitted to ATF for
   tracing. Of these 7,200 guns, only approximately 4,000 could be traced by
   ATF, and of these 4,000, some 3,480 or 87 percent, were shown to have come
   from the U.S. 

    

   This means that the 87 percent number comes from the number of weapons
   submitted by the Mexican government to ATF that could be successfully
   traced, and not from the total number of weapons seized by the Mexicans or
   even from the total number of weapons submitted to ATF for tracing. The
   3,480 guns positively traced to the U.S. only equals less than 12 percent
   of the total arms seized in 2008 and less than 48 percent of all those
   submitted to the ATF for tracing by the Mexican government.

   In a response to the GAO report that was published as part of the report,
   the U.S. Department of Homeland Security called the GAOa**s use of the 87
   percent statistic a**misleadinga**.  DHS further noted that a**Numerous
   problems with the data collection and sample population render this
   assertion as unreliable.a**

    

   Trying to get a reliable idea about where the drug cartels are getting
   their weapons can be difficult because the statistics on firearms seized
   in Mexico are very confusing. For example, while the GAO report says that
   30,000 guns were seized in 2008 alone, the Mexican Prosecutor Generala**s
   office has reported that between Dec. 1, 2005 and Jan. 22, 2009, Mexican
   authorities seized 31,512 weapons from the cartels. 

    

   Furthermore, it is not prudent to rely exclusively on weapons submitted to
   ATF for tracing as a representative sample of the overall Mexican arms
   market. This is because there are some classes of weapons, such as RPG-7
   rocket launchers and South Korean hand grenades that make very little
   sense for the Mexicans to pass to the ATF for tracing since they obviously
   are not from the U.S.  The same goes for weapons that can be traced
   through the Mexican governmenta**s own databases such as that maintained
   by the Mexican Defense Departmenta**s Arms and Ammunition Marketing
   Division (UCAM) which is the only outlet through which Mexican citizens
   can legally buy guns. If they can trace a gun through UCAM there is no
   need to submit it to ATF.

    

   The Mexicans have been criticized by the U.S. for decades over their
   inability to stop the flow of narcotics through their territory, and for
   the past several years they have responded to this criticism by blaming
   the guns proceeding from the U.S. for their inability to stop the flow of
   drugs.  In this context, there is a lot of incentive for the Mexicans to
   politicize and play up the issue of guns coming from the U.S. and there
   are also gun control interests inside the U.S. who have a vested interest
   in adding fuel to the fire.

    

   Clearly, the issue of U.S. guns being sent south of the border is a
   serious issue, but STRATFOR does not believe that there is ample evidence
   to support the claim that 90 percent (or more) of the cartelsa** weaponry
   comes from the U.S. Indeed the percentage of U.S. arms appears to be far
   lower than that in specific classes of arms such as fully automatic
   assault rifles, machine guns, rifle grenades, fragmentation grenades and
   RPG-7s. Even items such as the U.S.-manufactured LAW rockets encountered
   in Mexico have come from third countries and not directly from the U.S.

    

   The bottom line is that until there is a comprehensive, scientific study
   conducted on the arms seized by the Mexican authorities, much will be left
   to conjecture, and it will be very difficult to determine exactly how many
   of the cartelsa** weapons have come from the U.S and to precisely map out
   how the black, white and gray arms markets have interacted to bring
   weapons to Mexico and Mexican cartels.

    

   Three Trends

    

   In spite of the historical ambiguity, there are four trends that should
   shape the future flow of arms into Mexico. The first of these is
   militarization. Since 2006, there has been a steady trend toward the use
   of heavy military ordinance by the cartels. This process was begun in
   earnest when the Gulf Cartel first recruited Los Zetas, but in order to
   counter Los Zetas all the other cartels have over the years recruited and
   trained [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/mexico_applying_protective_intelligence_lens_cartel_war_violence
   ] hard core enforcer units outfitted with similar weaponry. Prior to 2007
   attacks involving fragmentation grenades 40mm grenades and RPG-rockets
   were somewhat rare and immediately attracted a lot of attention. Such
   incidents have now become common and it is not unusual to see incidents,
   like the June 26 firefight in Apaseo el Alto, where dozens of grenades
   were employed.  

    

   Secondly, in recent years the [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090326_central_america_emerging_role_drug_trade
   ] Mexican cartels have steadily moved south into Central and South
   America. As noted above, the region is still awash in cold war guns and
   this expanded presence will place the Mexicans in contact with a lot of
   people who have access to caches of cold war weapons, international arms
   merchants doing business with groups like the FARC, and corrupt officials
   who can obtain weapons from military sources in the region. We have
   already seen seizures of weapons coming into Mexico from the South. One
   notable seizure occurred in March 2009, when, [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090330_mexico_security_memo_march_30_2009
   ]

   Guatemalan authorities raided a training camp in Northern Guatemala near
   the Mexican border that they claim belonged to Los Zetas. In the raid,
   they recovered 563 40mm grenades and 11 M-60 machineguns that had been
   stolen from the Guatemalan military and sold to Los Zetas. 

    

   The third trend is the current firearm and ammunition market in the United
   States. Since the election of President Obama, arms sales have gone
   through the roof due to fears that the Obama Administration would attempt
   to restrict or ban weapons. As anyone who has attempted to buy an assault
   rifle (or even a brick of .22 cartridges) will tell you it is no longer
   cheap and easy to buy guns and ammunition.  In fact, it is down right
   difficult to locate many types of assault rifles and certain calibers of
   ammunition at the present time, though a lucky buyer might be able to find
   a basic stripped down AR-15 for between $850 and $1100, or and a
   semi-automatic AK-47 for between $650 and $850. Of course, such a gun
   purchased in the U.S., smuggled into Mexico will be sold to the cartels at
   a hefty premium above the purchase price.

    

   By way of comparison, a surplus fully-automatic assault rifle can be
   purchased for under $100 on the white arms market, and about the same on
   the black arms market in locations where weapons are abundant, such as
   Yemen. This difference in price will provide a powerful economic incentive
   to buy low elsewhere and sell high in Mexico, as does the inability to get
   certain classes of weapons such as RPGs and fragmentation grenades in the
   U.S.   Indeed, we have seen reports of international arms merchants from
   places like Israel and Belgium, selling weapons to the cartels, and
   bringing that that ordnance into Mexico through routes other than over the
   U.S. border.  Additionally, in South America, a number of arms smugglers,
   to include Hezbollah and the Russian organized crime groups, have made a
   considerable amount of money supplying arms to groups in the region like
   the FARC.

    

   At the same time that there has been low supply and high costs in the U.S.
   arms market, the U.S. government has dramatically stepped up its efforts
   to staunch the flow of weapons from the U.S. to Mexico. These increased
   enforcement efforts will have an impact as the risk of being caught
   smuggling guns will begin to outweigh the profit that can be made by
   selling guns to the cartels.  We believe that these two factors will work
   together to help reduce the flow of U.S. guns to Mexico.

    

   While there has been a long and well-documented history of arms smuggling
   across the U.S./Mexico border, it is important to recognize that while the
   U.S. is a significant source for certain classes of weapons, it is by no
   means the only source of illegal weapons in Mexico. Latin America is awash
   in weapons and as Stratfor has previously noted [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/tracing_mexicos_guns ] even if it were possible to
   hermetically seal the U.S. Mexico border, the Mexican cartels would still
   be able to obtain weapons (just as drugs would continue to flow to the
   U.S.)  The laws of supply and demand will ensure that the Mexican cartels
   get their ordnance, but it is highly likely that an increasing percentage
   of that supply will begin to come from outside the U.S. via the gray and
   black arms markets.

    
   Scott Stewart
   STRATFOR
   Office: 814 967 4046
   Cell: 814 573 8297
   scott.stewart@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
    
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1695986_re-re-worked-s-weekly-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>zeihan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>meiners@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>nathan.hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>karen.hooper@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1697484</id>
    <title>Some random thoughts about training
</title>
    <description>   Hi Rodger,

   Here are some thoughts on training... just random musing that you said you
   wanted to download from me. These come from my experience both as an
   intern, junior analyst, analyst and as intern coordiator.

   First, I really think it is absolutely crucial that when it comes to
   training, we have senior analyst VERY visibly in charge of the process.
   Sure the administrative work of running the intern program is something
   the junior staff can do, but for training to be successful, there has to
   be sufficient authority behind it.

   Some thoughts on STRATFOR culture:

   1. First on this list is that I think we need to make it clear that saying
   "I don't know... I need to find out" is perfectly fine. This is not clear
   to interns. Discussions on the analyst list and in person often devolve
   into analysts doing intellectual gymnastics to prove they have an opinion
   or knowledge on everything going on. This is not productive as it is
   simply impossible to know everything. I have honestly heard analyst say "I
   don't know" maybe 5 times in my 2.5 years here. This seeps into interns
   who then think they need to pretend to know everything to get hired. Not
   good.

   2. We can be very mean/aggressive/bitchy at each othe when discussing
   work, especially when we feel we are stepping into each other's AORs
   (which is funny, since G says this is the main downfall of the CIA). This
   has a different effect on different people. For example, it makes some
   recruits think they can act the same way (think Aaron Moore). Second,
   there is this FANTASY (note: F A N T A S Y) that STRATFOR is a place where
   young, brilliant, ambitious people get together, rip each other apart, and
   then come up with an idea/analysis that is the sum of the parts. In
   reality, STRATFOR is divided between those who can yell and those who are
   yelled at. This is VERY clear to everyone on the junior staff. What
   happens is two things: a) junior analysts/interns/recruits decide to fight
   back and incur the wrath of senior staff and labeled as
   inflexible/un-trainable or b) junior analysts/interns/recruits decide that
   it is much easier to not fight back and become "yes men". Neither is what
   we want. We need to make it clear that at some point discussion STOPS. We
   are a BUSINESS. We do not have the luxury of academia or government to
   endlessly bullshit. BUT, this does not mean that we need to do it in an
   aggressive manner. And besides, if one needs to raise their voice to
   exercise authority, then they have already lost it (isn't that like a
   Confucius quote or something?)

   3. Analysts have to be more relaxed on being challenged. I think it may be
   good to start building some sort of a routinized criticism sessions, if
   for nothing else than to develop a culture of being able to take
   criticism. We are not going to be able to criticize ourselves (truly) if
   we don't accept criticism from others. So maybe some sort of a Maoist
   session where one analyst's analysis is destroyed could be a good
   exercise. I don't know...

   4. I think we are getting sloppy and we are starting to lose our drive to
   research things in depth. We are simply covering too much with too few
   people and our daily output, considering staffing, is making it impossible
   to be more thorough. How do we fix this? We talked about this... I don't
   know. But we are NOT doing a good job balancing daily "for today" with
   long term work.

   Here's an idea to resolve this problem. One of the qualities that ALL of
   our analysts should have (even regional) is situational awareness of the
   entire globe. That means that it would do good for Kamran, Matt or shit
   even YOU to write an analysis on Zimbabwe. Plus its kind of fun. PLUS, it
   gets different analysts working with different analysts (so for example
   instead of you working with me on ONE analysis in 2.5 years, you get to
   see my work on more opportunities).

   So think if Mark had to tell you what he wanted written for today's Zimb
   piece and what he wanted researched. Or if he told me. Or if I told Mark
   what I wanted for a Romania analysis. Now you have different analysts
   helping out on for today tasks on different AORs. Makes them much more
   involved... They start making connections on how different AORs operate,
   unearthing patterns that could help them in forecasting their own AOR

   Why am I suggesting this?

   Because maybe we can assign "long-term project" days. So an analyst would
   work intensely on FOR TODAY for 3 or 4 days of the week and the other 1-2
   days he/she would be either working on monographs or doing that
   "INTELLIGENCE" work you were telling me about this afternoon... you know,
   when you can actually mull about long-term changes and trends and pour
   over data to unearth anomalies. If I can just walk Mark or Karen through
   the Romania analysis in the am, and then "red team" it by making sure it
   is up to my liking, I can concentrate the rest of the day on long term
   stuff and not worry about putting out fires. And then next day I help
   Karen or Mark with their AOR, giving THEM time to do long term and
   expanding my horizons.

   Ok, I just bored you to death.
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1697484_some-random-thoughts-about-training-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>rodger.baker@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1698076</id>
    <title>Re: [Eurasia] Spain - Catalonia - Statute of Autonomy
</title>
    <description>   Legally speaking, the statute was not overturned.

   Lauren Goodrich wrote:

     so the statute was overturned.
     That is important.

     Elodie Dabbagh wrote:

       They are protesting the fact that the Constitutional Court cut the
       most important articles of the statute. According to the ruling,
       Catalonia is not a nation, the Catalan language cannot be the main
       language in Catalonia, the autonomy in terms of budget is greatly
       reduced,... There is not very much left in the statute.

       Lauren Goodrich wrote:

         so what are they protesting?

         Elodie Dabbagh wrote:

           The statute is not overturned. The articles that are
           unconstitutional or not valid do not have any effect.

           Lauren Goodrich wrote:

             So this statute was overturned?

             Elodie Dabbagh wrote:

               Link: themeData
               Link: colorSchemeMapping

               The statute was approved at a referendum in 2006. It gave the
               Catalans a wide range of autonomy with separate language,
               parliament, government, judicial and educational system from
               Spain.

               The conservative opposition Popular Party appealed to the
               Constitutional Court in July 2006 over about half of the
               articles.

               The Constitutional Court approved all but 14 articles and 27
               other articles will be reinterpreted. Here are the most
               important changes:

               -          The word "nation" to describe the region has "no
               legal value", although it does not violate the constitution.
               That is the main thing: Catalonia cannot be recognized as a
               nation.

               -          The ruling has dealt language a severe blow as
               judges abolished preferential status for Catalan in the
               administration and public mass media. The Catalan language
               cannot be the "preferred language" (unconstitutional).

               -          The "national symbols" of Catalonia are subject to
               reinterpretation (not clear how).

               -          The judiciary system, Catalan language status,
               powers on immigration, taxes, vegueries (new Catalan
               administrative divisions) and the right to call referendums
               are the areas that have been most severely cut back. Source

               -          Other language-related aspects, such as the "right
               of citizens to address constitutional bodies and the Spanish
               judiciary in Catalan" or the right of citizens to be
               responded, as consumers or users, in any of the official
               languages -Catalan, Occitan and Castilian-, will be subject to
               interpretation. Catalan judiciary powers and Catalonia's
               Council of Justice have also been thoroughly reduced and even
               questioned altogether.

               -          Exclusive powers granted to Catalonia, as well as
               the article regulating popular consultations, are also
               affected by judicial interpretation.

               -          Article 218, which gave the Catalan government the
               capacity to establish and regulate local taxes and gave it
               autonomy over its budget and resources, is unconstitutional.

                

               Ruling (Spanish):
               http://www.nationalia.cat/fitxer/1220/Fallo%20sentencia.pdf

               Statute of autonomy (English):
               http://www.parlament-cat.net/porteso/estatut/estatut_angles_100506.pdf

               Here is an article with all the changes (in Catalan, but good
               to keep as it has ALL the details):
               http://www.vilaweb.cat/noticia/3748884/sentencia-lestatut-obre-nova-era-politica-catalunya.html

               --
               Elodie Dabbagh
               STRATFOR
               Analyst Development Program

             --
             Lauren Goodrich
             Director of Analysis
             Senior Eurasia Analyst
             Stratfor
             T: 512.744.4311
             F: 512.744.4334
             lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
             www.stratfor.com

         --
         Lauren Goodrich
         Director of Analysis
         Senior Eurasia Analyst
         Stratfor
         T: 512.744.4311
         F: 512.744.4334
         lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
         www.stratfor.com

     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     Stratfor
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-07-12 16:23:42</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-18 22:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1698076_re-eurasia-spain-catalonia-statute-of-autonomy-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>elodie.dabbagh@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1699308</id>
    <title>Re: Novosti brojne
</title>
    <description>   Marko,
   Fala tebi na istom takvom. Vidjanje sa NSCjem ce biti partly okolo rusije
   I gruzije, pa mi je svaka informacija vishe no dobrodosla, tek da ih
   opsenim.

   Rece mi danas srpski ambasador a juce sam dan serwer da su klinotnova I
   vuk pjevali horski okolo pronalazanje resenja za ustavnu reformu koje je
   potencijalno prihvatljivo za sodika. Srpski ambasador ovde je inace skroz
   ok tip I rekoh mu da te znam, prva sledeca prilika kad si u prestonici I
   spojicu vas da se upoznate.

   Sto se tice democracy promotiona skupljam podatke, I imacu uskoro I neke
   brojke, dobijash iH cim prije

   Salji kakvu gruziju I ukrajinu cim prije I cujemo se. McFaul je moj drugar
   I dobar tip, volim da mu pomognem (a ruse ko sto znash obozavam)

   Mogli bi naprolece I da se konacno upoznamo, dolazim na duzze, a dobri
   friedman nas je josh onomad pozvao da vas posetimo (I razmenimo pokoji
   analiticki tool) mi "spijuni I izdajnici moramo da se drzzimo zajedno",
   sto bi rek'o pokojni sloba milosevic..:)

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 17 Dec 2009 15:18:16 -0600 (CST)
   To: &lt;srkip@canvasopedia.org&gt;
   Cc: Slobodan Djinovic&lt;slobodan@mediaworksit.net&gt;
   Subject: Re: Novosti brojne
   Zdravo Srdjo,

   Hvala na super email-u!

   1. Veoma interesantna informacija... Kao prvo, sta tacno mislis kad kazes
   da je Obama administracija " posekla gomilu projekata pomoci", bilo bi
   dobro ako imas detalje. Ovo je nama veoma interesantna i vazna novost i
   dosta se poklapa u neke informacije koje mi imamo od nasih izvora.
   Naprimer, od Rusa znamo da u Gruziji i Ukrajini nisu dosta dugo videli
   pro-democracy movements, i zato su naravno happy. Takodje od Rusa znamo da
   su pro-demokratske grupe bile veoma aktivne iz Azerbaijana za vreme
   Iranske "revolucije", ali da je Moskva to sanirala kao "favor" Tehranu.

   Rusiji je ovo veoma vazno jer nasi izvori kazu da se spremaju nove
   anti-Saakashvili demonstracije u Gruziji koje ce, ako ne direktno
   orkestrovane od strane Kremlja onda ce barem biti "encouraged". Naravno tu
   su i izbori u Ukrajini koji su prilicno "locked down", ali ipak, Moskva ne
   zeli da bude iznenadjenja.

   Dakle, mnogo nas interesuje sta se desava... Takodje me interesuje sta je
   tema NSC-a na koji ides, ako ima jos informacije o ovoj novoj putanji
   Obamine administracije to moze da bude dokaz da se Washington sprema za
   moguci "Grand Bargain" sa Rusijom.

   2. Sto se tice Bosne to je prilicno ironicno, Dodik hoce u NATO a Ameri
   hoce da se prvo zavrse reforme. Ha! To je stvarno za film. Problem je sto
   se svi u Bosni sad pozicioniraju za Oktobarske izbore, tako da od nekog
   "butmirskog procesa" nema sanse jer svi moraju da igraju nacoshe... to je
   standard. Ja sam bio u Sarajevu nedelju dana u Oktobru, i to je otprilike
   bilo sta su mi rekli i SDA, i Silajdzicevi a i iz Banja Luke.(By the way,
   iz SDA su mi rekli da su ponudili Dodiku ultra-autonomiju, ali da im preda
   neke delove istocne Hercegovine. Kad sam ih ja pitao zasto to ide njima u
   korist, odgovor je basically bio "Lebensraum". Interesantno.)

   Sto se tice Turske, ona je veoma aktivna kao sto ti kazes, pogotovu na
   strani Silajdzica. Gul je licno zvao Obamu uzmedu Butmir I i II da mu kaze
   da Steinberg promeni stav za Butmir II. A da nepricamo o tome sta prica
   Devutoglu... Covek rekreira Otomansku imperiju. Evropljanima se to uopste
   nije svidelo naravno, jer pokusavaju da "srede" Bosnu da o njoj vise ne
   moraju da se brinu. Sad su se totalno zamrzli jer ne samo sto Turska
   postaje aktivna nego i Rusija pocinje da prica kako njeno clanstvo na
   Peace Implementation Council-u znaci da i oni treba da se pitaju o Bosni
   (sto je ustvari i istina). Ovo je naravno totalan sok za Evropu jer su do
   prosle godine mislili da mogu Bosnu lepo sledecih 10 godina da sredjuju, a
   sad se ko lesinari okupljaju Moskva i Ankara...

   Sto se tice Beogradske politike, za sada se igra dosta komplikovana i
   opasna igra, ali izgleda po nekoj nasoj proceni da se igra veoma vesto.
   Naravno ne mislim na ona "cetiri stuba" sto je propaganda, pojenta je igra
   sa Rusima. Potez sa Rusijom se ocigledno isplatio. Medvedvova poseta +
   "zajam" + Ruska "baza" u Nisu (koju by the way Rusi smatraju veoma
   ozbiljnim logistickim centrom... barem nam tako kazu izvori u Kremlju) su
   naravno dali do znanja Evropi da Beograd ima "opcije". To je barem bio po
   nasoj proceni "bluff" koji su Jeremic i Tadic odigrali, i to dosta vesto.
   Evo sta su posledice tih poteza: Srbija dobija trgovinski sporazum, Evropa
   prica kako ce da da Srbiji ne znam koliko milijardi evro za 5 godina,
   Holandezi dolaze u BG i prakticno kazu da do pola 2010 prolazi SAA, etc.
   Svi su happy...

   Osim mozda Rusa... Pitanje je sta ce Moskva da misli o svemu tome kad
   ispadne da ih Beograd koristi za "domestic consumption" i da zastrasi
   Evropu a da ustvari se sprema NATO aplikacija. Na svu srecu Rusiji sad bas
   i ne ide u korist da pravi probleme na Balkanu jer pokusavaju da primame
   investicije za privatizacije od Nemaca i Francuza.

   Inace puno me interesuje sta ti mislis i naravno ako imas jos neku
   informaciju o pro-democracy movement support od strane Obamine
   administracije.

   Sve najbolje sutra na NSC-u! Ako ti treba nesto od nas, samo reci.

   Marko

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: srkip@canvasopedia.org
   To: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "Slobodan Djinovic" &lt;slobodan@mediaworksit.net&gt;
   Sent: Friday, December 18, 2009 3:53:43 AM GMT -06:00 Central America
   Subject: Novosti brojne

   Marko,
   Evo brzih novosti okolo nashe posete dc-ju, a bice I follow up-a

   1. Sto se tice srbije I odnosa US I srbije ukljucujuci I jucerasnji susret
   klintonobe sa vukom jeremicem:
   -srbija ce biti garant stabilne bosne (mada jastrebovi poput dana serwera
   agresivno zagovaraju ustavnu promenu)
   - srbi su "pritisli" dodika koliko su mogli ( ne zaboravi da on nije
   karadzic, nego baja koji se uhio od glasova na demokratskim izborima, a
   predstoje mu uskoro I novi na kojima ubedljivo vodi) na saradnju. Sem toga
   nashi (odlicni) izvori u tadicevom kabinetu kazu da je srpski
   estavlishment ulozio veliki napor da Dodika ubedi kako je ulaszak u NATO
   super opsija za bosnu (posmatrajuci dugorocno, ako srbija mora da bude
   "okruzzena" nato zemljama za srbiju je odlicno da u NATO-u sede I srbi iz
   rep. Srpske), da je dodik "legao na rudu (cutao, zapravo protiv naota u u
   bosni govorili drugi, pre svih ekstremni muslimani), ali da su ameri
   svojom politikom "slona u staklarskoj radnji" naravno rekli "ustavne
   reforme prvo" (sto dodik, a bogami I dobar deo srpskog establishmenta"
   cita kao ukidanje RS I "prekrajanje" dejtona", I odbio, I da se bosna
   (koja se nicim izazvana kao tema popela na americkoj listi prioriteta,
   mada je mnogo vishe vruc krompir za EU nego za ameriku na americkoj listi
   spoljnopolitickih prioriteta, sto je bila I glavna tema sastanka
   klintonove I jeremica). Analiticki gledano srbija nema nijedan razlog da
   ne odigra sa amerima e da se bosna ne bi destabilizovala: ekonosmski,
   kostunicina vlada je "kolonizovala" RS (kupujuci telekom I osiguravajuci
   sektor", bezbednosno, frka u bosni I eventualno izdvajanje srpskog I ili
   hrvatskog entiteta od bosanskog znacilo bi direktan ulazak ekstrenog
   islama (sa kojim bi se na veoma dugackoj granici) granicili I srbi I
   hrvati, politicki, Srbima bi "usvajanje" rs znacilo vishe stotina hiljada
   nacionalistickih biraca (to Tadicu, narocito uz opadajuci rejting dokazan
   pobedom Tominih narodnjaka na nedavno odrzanim izborima na vozdovcu) ne
   treba (uzgred ni pokojni Milosevic nije bash bio spreman da ih prigrli,
   sto je jedan od razloga sto je pristao na dejton)
   Nasha procena je da ce u svetlu poboljsanja srpsko-us odnosa srbi I ameri
   u bosni igrati zajedno (amerima ovo odgoara kao polje zajednickog
   delovanja, kudikamo more confortable nego kosovo koje je "seme razdora" a
   valja I'm napraviti neki prodor kod nas, narocito u svetlu rastuceg ruskog
   uticaja, pogledaj samo kojom je brzinom americka ambasada nakon
   bramercovog izvestaja I belog sengena "samoinicijativno" predlozila da se
   srbima izdaju petogodisnje vize mesto trogodisnjih)
   Sa druge strane "spustanje lopte" odgovara politici koju trenutno srbija
   vodi.
   Kljucna igra u bosni je dakle : kako predloziti ustavne promene koje bi
   zadovoljile ameriku (uslov za nato) I eu (uslov za dalje prikljucenje
   bosne umesto da ostane "ostrvo gubavaca") a da pri tome ne zadiru u
   dejtonom garantovan suverenitet rs (ono sto su turci, koji su se u
   poslednje vreme bas jako organizovali u regionu prdlagali u tzv
   "butmirskom procesu najvise lici na to)

   2. Bice za vas uskoro i vesti iz DCja: Sto se tice nasheg voljenog
   democracy promotiona ima citav niz interesantih stvari, pre svega u vezi
   smanjenja  pomoci democracy poromtion programima (izgleda da je obamina
   administracija na krilima antibushovske politike" posekla gomilu projekata
   pomoci raznoraznim aktivistima I da to poslako postaje velika tema ovde.
   Hajde da razmenimo informacije pre nego se damo u analizu, ono sto smo
   saznali oko Irana je dosta porazavajuce. Neka ovo zasad bude medju nama
   dok ne pozavrsavam sastanke naokolo, sutra idem I u NSC pa cu znati vishe,
   sta stratfor zna o tome I pratite li taj trend uopste?)

   Do slusanja, bash me zanima vash point of view
   Srdja
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2009-12-18 17:54:28</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-06-18 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1699308_re-novosti-brojne-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>srkip@canvasopedia.org</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>slobodan@mediaworksit.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1699337</id>
    <title>Re: Tirana update
</title>
    <description>        Rumors continue to spread within the population that agents of the
   State Intelligence Service (SHISH) had infiltrated the crowds and provoked
   yesterday's violence. (Comment: No proof of this, but would not be the
   first time SHISH was used in this capacity).
   Would SHISH be trying to instigate violence so as to justify a govt
   crackdown on socialists? Seems like that is an unnecessary risk... No one
   wants civil war when youre The one actually in power already.
    
   On 2011 Jan 22, at 13:36, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     From TrapWire --
     Just in from a contact (Former senior law enforcement officer with
     direct access to Opposition party members).
      
     Tirana : 22 Jan 2011 (Situation at 1930 local)
      
     a**         Situation today calm, as Govt declared day of mourning for
     the "martyrs" (Berisha's words).
     a**         The Opposition has been hold-up all day today in Mayor Edi
     Rama's office discussing next steps. There is some reluctance on their
     part as to whether tomorrow's protest should proceed as planned. They
     have apparently received word that many protesters intend to come armed
     to protect themselves against the police.  Rama has commented privately
     he may lead the protest to try and keep them peaceful.
     a**         Despite this, the Opposition continues to insist they will
     not stop actions against the current regime until Berisha resigns. In
     response, Berisha has declared that "anyone touching an official
     government building will meet the same fate as the protestors
     yesterday."
     a**         Rumblings have started in other major cities throughout
     Albania re. sympathetic protests. Most notably Shkoder, Durres and
     Gjirokaster.
     a**         There are reports of a handful of arrests of senior police
     officials following yesterday's incident. Investigation is now underway
     as to who gave the order to fire upon the crowds.
     a**         Rumors continue to spread within the population that agents
     of the State Intelligence Service (SHISH) had infiltrated the crowds and
     provoked yesterday's violence. (Comment: No proof of this, but would not
     be the first time SHISH was used in this capacity).
     a**         Note: Great deal of fear and apprehension amongst the
     populace, particularly in Tirana. Most still have vivid memories of '90
     and '97. Average Albanian is still well armed following the ransacking
     of weapons depots in '97 and an escalation in violence is not
     unthinkable.
      
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 22:24:15</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1699337_re-tirana-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bayless.parsley@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1699876</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION - New EU Commission
</title>
    <description>   There is a LOT that goes into the Energy DG that lays down the groundwork
   for influencing European energy without any votes being taken.

   Think about the push that the EU had to force energy conglomerates to
   divide up their downstream and upstream production. That came from a DG
   led by a Latvian. That ain't happening with a German in power. Or at
   least, not if he is fine with what is going on with German-Russian energy
   relationship.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Emre Dogru" &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, November 30, 2009 11:24:47 AM GMT -06:00 Central America
   Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - New EU Commission

   I don't want to play down the appointment of German guy but I am still
   skeptical as to the extent to which the energy commissioner can push the
   EU toward an cohesive energy policy.
   &gt;From the Lisbon Treaty:
   Art. 194. Such measures shall not affect a Member State's right to
   determine the conditions for exploiting its energy resources, its choice
   between different energy sources and the general structure of its energy
   supply, without prejudice to Article 192(2)(c).

   Art. 192(2)(c) Also refers to another article, which stipulates that no
   Member State can violate EU's energy policy's general objectives. Sounds
   cool. If this happens,  measures significantly affecting a Member State's
   choice between different energy sources and the general structure of its
   energy supply   can only be adopted (HOWEVER) by the Council acting
   UNANIMOUSLY, which means that every country has the right to veto.

   Marko Papic wrote:

     Resending

     ----- Original Message -----
     From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "analysts" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Saturday, November 28, 2009 11:00:04 AM GMT -06:00 Central America
     Subject: DISCUSSION - New EU Commission

     Ok, so the new EU Commission has been announced.

     What is the relevance of this EU Commission? Well for one, the Germans
     and the French have LOCKED DOWN the two key posts: internal market and
     energy!  How did they do this? By brilliant manuvering. They gave the
     Poles the EP Presidency, which Warsaw thought was uber important but is
     mainly ceremonial. That was the first key EU post and they gave it to
     the Poles first, who bought it like crazy. Then they got UK out of EU's
     internal business by giving London the FM post. This was not as "cheap"
     as the EP President, BUT it gave the post to a relative unknown Brit who
     is from Labor and now owes her relevancy completely to the EU.

     BRILLIANT.

     Here are the next steps:

       * 11-19 Jan. 2010: Hearings with the newly-nominated commissioners
         in the European Parliament.
       * 26 Jan. 2010: Final vote of the European Parliament on the full
         Commission (9.00-11.00 debate in plenary; 11.00-12.00 political
         group meetings; 12.00-13.00 vote in plenary). 
       * 1 Feb. 2010: New Commission expected to take office.
     Entire line up (my comments in orange):

     The appointments in full:

       * JosA(c) Manuel Barroso (Portugal): President With Van Rompuy as EU
         President, Barroso still retains power. Imagine if Blair was EU
         President. It would be Barroso who?
       * Joaquin Almunia (Spain): Competition  According to EU sources, he is
         loyal to Barroso (makes sense, they are Iberian). He is also a bad
         ass. Expect him to take member states to court if he deems they are
         being protectionist. Will piss off Berlin and Paris for sure.
       * Catherine Ashton (UK): Foreign Affairs High Representative As I
         said, this was a great choice for Berlin and Paris. They get UK off
         of their hands with a post that will not let UK meddle in EU
         internal affairs.
       * Michel Barnier (France): Internal Market and Services BOOM. This
         shows how RETARDED Brown is. He installed a relative unknown who may
         go "native" into the FM post and gave up the internal market and
         services to the FRENCH!!! The City of London is PISSED.
       * Olli Rehn (Finland): Economic and Monetary Affairs Former
         Enlargement guy gets this post, also loyal to Barroso, will
         undoubtedly piss off Berlin and Paris.
       * Dacian Ciolos (Romania): Agriculture
       * John Dalli (Malta): Health and Consumer Policy Wow... granted, the
         Maltese are super health conscious, so if you're Monsanto or
         Sagenta, you are NOT happy.
       * Karel De Gucht (Belgium): Trade
       * Stefan FA 1/4le (Czech Republic): Enlargement This was something
         that was discussed. A new member state gets the enlargement
         portfolio. Nice compromise here as well, since Prague is not as
         crazy about Ukraine/Georgia
       * Connie Hedegaard (Denmark): Climate Action Denmark gets climate
         action, poignant.
       * Maire Geoghegan-Quinn (Ireland): Research and Innovation
       * Janusz Lewandowski (Poland): Budget/Financial Programming
       * Guenther Oettinger (Germany): Energy HUUUUUGE... Germany gets a key
         post and screws Central Europeans completely
       * Janez Potocnik (Slovenia): Environment Slovenians got on the whole
         "green" bandwaggon first, so this is cute.
       * Neelie Kroes (Netherlands): Digital Agenda
       * LA!szlA^3 Andor (Hungary): Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion
         Oh God... Hungarians in charge of employment...
       * Maria Damanaki (Greece): Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Makes sense.
       * Johannes Hahn (Austria): Regional Policy Tame choice.
       * Rumiana Jeleva (Bulgaria): International Cooperation, Humanitarian
         Aid and Crisis Response
       * Siim Kallas (Estonia): Transport
       * Cecilia MalmstrAP:m (Sweden): Home Affairs
       * Andris Piebalgs (Latvia): Development
       * Viviane Reding (Luxembourg): Justice, Fundamental Rights and
         Citizenship
       * Algirdas AA emeta (Lithuania): Taxation and Customs Union
       * Antonio Tajani (Italy): Industry and Entrepreneurship This is
         usually the DG that fights with all the free market DGs, so Italian
         running it is a key.
       * Androulla Vassiliou (Cyprus): Education, Culture, Multilingualism
         and Youth  
       * Maros Sefcovic (Slovakia): Interinstitutional Relations and
         Administration

 --
 C. Emre Dogru
 STRATFOR Intern
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 +1 512 226 3111
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-24 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1699876_re-discussion-new-eu-commission-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1699964</id>
    <title>DISCUSSION - New EU Commission
</title>
    <description>   Ok, so the new EU Commission has been announced.

   What is the relevance of this EU Commission? Well for one, the Germans and
   the French have LOCKED DOWN the two key posts: internal market and
   energy!  How did they do this? By brilliant manuvering. They gave the
   Poles the EP Presidency, which Warsaw thought was uber important but is
   mainly ceremonial. That was the first key EU post and they gave it to the
   Poles first, who bought it like crazy. Then they got UK out of EU's
   internal business by giving London the FM post. This was not as "cheap" as
   the EP President, BUT it gave the post to a relative unknown Brit who is
   from Labor and now owes her relevancy completely to the EU.

   BRILLIANT.

   Here are the next steps:

     * 11-19 Jan. 2010: Hearings with the newly-nominated commissioners
       in the European Parliament.
     * 26 Jan. 2010: Final vote of the European Parliament on the full
       Commission (9.00-11.00 debate in plenary; 11.00-12.00 political group
       meetings; 12.00-13.00 vote in plenary). 
     * 1 Feb. 2010: New Commission expected to take office.
   Entire line up (my comments in orange):

   The appointments in full:

     * JosA(c) Manuel Barroso (Portugal): President With Van Rompuy as EU
       President, Barroso still retains power. Imagine if Blair was EU
       President. It would be Barroso who?
     * Joaquin Almunia (Spain): Competition  According to EU sources, he is
       loyal to Barroso (makes sense, they are Iberian). He is also a bad
       ass. Expect him to take member states to court if he deems they are
       being protectionist. Will piss off Berlin and Paris for sure.
     * Catherine Ashton (UK): Foreign Affairs High Representative As I said,
       this was a great choice for Berlin and Paris. They get UK off of their
       hands with a post that will not let UK meddle in EU internal affairs.
     * Michel Barnier (France): Internal Market and Services BOOM. This shows
       how RETARDED Brown is. He installed a relative unknown who may go
       "native" into the FM post and gave up the internal market and services
       to the FRENCH!!! The City of London is PISSED.
     * Olli Rehn (Finland): Economic and Monetary Affairs Former Enlargement
       guy gets this post, also loyal to Barroso, will undoubtedly piss off
       Berlin and Paris.
     * Dacian Ciolos (Romania): Agriculture
     * John Dalli (Malta): Health and Consumer Policy Wow... granted, the
       Maltese are super health conscious, so if you're Monsanto or Sagenta,
       you are NOT happy.
     * Karel De Gucht (Belgium): Trade
     * Stefan FA 1/4le (Czech Republic): Enlargement This was something that
       was discussed. A new member state gets the enlargement portfolio. Nice
       compromise here as well, since Prague is not as crazy about
       Ukraine/Georgia
     * Connie Hedegaard (Denmark): Climate Action Denmark gets climate
       action, poignant.
     * Maire Geoghegan-Quinn (Ireland): Research and Innovation
     * Janusz Lewandowski (Poland): Budget/Financial Programming
     * Guenther Oettinger (Germany): Energy HUUUUUGE... Germany gets a key
       post and screws Central Europeans completely
     * Janez Potocnik (Slovenia): Environment Slovenians got on the whole
       "green" bandwaggon first, so this is cute.
     * Neelie Kroes (Netherlands): Digital Agenda
     * LA!szlA^3 Andor (Hungary): Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion Oh
       God... Hungarians in charge of employment...
     * Maria Damanaki (Greece): Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Makes sense.
     * Johannes Hahn (Austria): Regional Policy Tame choice.
     * Rumiana Jeleva (Bulgaria): International Cooperation, Humanitarian Aid
       and Crisis Response
     * Siim Kallas (Estonia): Transport
     * Cecilia MalmstrAP:m (Sweden): Home Affairs
     * Andris Piebalgs (Latvia): Development
     * Viviane Reding (Luxembourg): Justice, Fundamental Rights and
       Citizenship
     * Algirdas AA emeta (Lithuania): Taxation and Customs Union
     * Antonio Tajani (Italy): Industry and Entrepreneurship This is usually
       the DG that fights with all the free market DGs, so Italian running it
       is a key.
     * Androulla Vassiliou (Cyprus): Education, Culture, Multilingualism and
       Youth  
     * Maros Sefcovic (Slovakia): Interinstitutional Relations and
       Administration
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-24 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1699964_discussion-new-eu-commission-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1700600</id>
    <title>Re: [Eurasia] G3 - GERMANY - Berlin asks NATO partners to keep
 quiet on deadly bombing
</title>
    <description>   yeah but US allowed its criticism to go public

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Eugene Chausovsky" &lt;eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "EurAsia AOR" &lt;eurasia@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Friday, September 11, 2009 8:05:32 AM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re: [Eurasia] G3 - GERMANY - Berlin asks NATO partners to keep
   quiet on deadly bombing

   Ooh Merkel is pissed....but I don't think this is all directed at the US.
   Kouchner was pretty vocal in denouncing the airstrike as well, its just
   that Merkel is super sensitive right now as she tries to figure out her
   coalition situation ahead of the election.

   Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

     Berlin asks NATO partners to keep quiet on deadly bombing

     Published: 11 Sep 09 09:00 CET
     Online: http://www.thelocal.de/national/20090911-21857.html

     The German government has issued a round of formal diplomatic protests
     to fellow NATO countries, asking them to refrain from criticising a
     controversial air strike called by the Bundeswehr in Afghanistan last
     week.

     The Foreign Ministry told daily Financial Times Deutschland on Friday
     that German ambassadors had issued the demarches in NATO allied
     countries. The formal protests asked that officials wait until the NATO
     probe of the incident had concluded before commenting on the deadly
     bombing.

     In Paris the protest was not well-received, the paper said.

     a**What should a minister say if such an attack kills 80 and there are
     civilians among them? Nothing?a** an unnamed diplomat told the paper.

     On Tuesday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel rejected a**prejudgementa**
     of the air strike in a speech to parliament.

     Merkel assured the bombing of two fuel trucks in the northern part of
     the country last Friday would be thoroughly investigated amid concerns
     it caused scores of civilian casualties.

     She lashed out at widespread criticism by many of Germanya**s closes
     allies before NATO's International Security Assistance Force (ISAF)
     completed its investigation of the incident.

     a**I wona**t tolerate that either here at home or abroad,a** she said.

     The German government and military have faced immense pressure in recent
     days after Col. Georg Klein called in NATO air support to destroy two
     fuel tankers hijacked by the Taliban near the Afghan city of Kunduz.
     Berlin at first contended that only Islamist insurgents had been killed
     in the air strike, but ISAF announced shortly after Merkel's speech that
     there had been an unspecified number of civilian victims.

     French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner has described the strike as a
     "big mistake" while Afghan President Hamid Karzai blasted the German
     commander's call in an interview with French daily Le Figaro: "What an
     error of judgement!"

     http://www.thelocal.de/national/20090911-21857.html

      
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-08 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1700600_re-eurasia-g3-germany-berlin-asks-nato-partners-to-keep.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1700833</id>
    <title>Turkish Source
</title>
    <description>   Not sure if you have noticed that we had not heard from my main Turkish
   source - TR1 - in some time. The reason is that several months back he
   became an adviser to Erdogan. I fugure he was busy settling into his new
   role. Today he sent me his new cell phone #. This guy is ideologically
   close to Gul and got me in touch with Davutoglu. So he is the best access
   we are likely to have into Ankara. Not sure how much I will be able to get
   out of him at an given time but for starters send me a list of questions
   that you guys think are the most important to ask. Thanks.

    

    

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2009-09-29 22:48:31</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-16 21:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1700833_turkish-source-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zeihan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1700969</id>
    <title>Re: [Eurasia] [CT] [Fwd: [OS] RUSSIA/CT - footage of the Russian
	airport blast]
</title>
    <description>Surv footage can be walked back and track the suspects from the get go
w/facial recognition software (or TrapWire) technology. 

Eugene Chausovsky wrote:
&gt; Not sure if you guys saw this, this is real time footage of blast
&gt; caught by airport security camera.
&gt;
&gt; -------- Original Message --------
&gt; Subject: 	[OS] RUSSIA/CT - footage of the Russian airport blast
&gt; Date: 	Tue, 25 Jan 2011 08:10:16 -0600
&gt; From: 	Adam Wagh &lt;adam.wagh@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; Reply-To: 	The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; To: 	The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; *Footage of the Russian airport blast
&gt; *http://video.foxnews.com/v/4508883/
&gt; January 25, 2011
&gt;
&gt; Check the link above for the vidio
&gt; -- 
&gt; Adam Wagh
&gt; STRATFOR Research Intern
</description>
    <date>2011-01-25 17:30:37</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1700969_re-eurasia-ct-fwd-os-russia-ct-footage-of-the-russian.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1701218</id>
    <title>Re: Albania
</title>
    <description>   Good insight. He put some thought into this.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;, "Marko Papic"
   &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, January 25, 2011 6:09:57 PM
   Subject: Albania

   From TrapWire in response to Marko's questions --
    

   Fred -- Just in. Haven't had time to give a good scrub/spell check etc. so
   might be a bit raw. (His English is excellent, but not perfect).  M

   ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
      

    

    

    

               1. Any thoughts on what repercussions unrest in Albania could
   have for the region as a whole?

    

               Instability in Albania generally means instability within the
   Albanian diaspora in the region.

    

   A.         Kosova: Just came out of general elections and is now facing an
   internal crises . The winning party does not have enough votes to elect a
   PM or create a new government. At the same time, the leadership of the
   winning party has been accused for war crimes and trafficking in human
   organs by a Swiss reporter. These issues have endangered the current
   political process towards Kosovo independence. Negotiations with Serbia
   are now on hold. An unstable political situation in Albania will be a big
   loss for Kosovo. Kosovo has no representation in international
   institutions and Albania is her biggest supporter and ally regarding
   Kosovo foreign policy.  A crisis in Albania will make the dialogue between
   Kosovo and Serbia, which is seeking a division of northern Kosovo.

    

   A.         Macedonia: Our neighboring country has a population of 30%
   Albanians, who have been in constant conflict with the Macedonian
   government regarding their rights as a minority. Macedonian-Albanians are
   divided in to two groups:  one that is more liberal and has assimilated
   into Macedonian society; and the other a much more radical group that is
   in conflict Macedonian policies. Add to this Macedonia's on-going conflict
   with Greece, and one could speculate that any major crisis in Albania will
   only compound the problems inside Macedonia -- particularly for those
   Albanians seeking greater rights inside Macedonia. There is a precedence
   for this problem during the 1997 conflict in Albania.

    

   A.         Greece: Our only neighboring country with EU membership is
   still going through a very bad political and economic crises itself. There
   are almost 1.5 million Albanians living in Greece -- many are illegal
   immigrants working illegally. Another crises in Albania could likely fuel
   another mass exodus to Greece (and Italy) -- particularly now that
   Albanians can finally travel without visas in Europe.   

    

   2.  After 1997 anarchy, weapons flowed across the borders to Kosovo and
   Macedonia. Any chance that another crisis has an effect on neighboring
   countries?

    

               In my opinion, it is unlikely the current situation will
   deteriorate to the point of 1997, which was fueled by economic collapse
   rather than only political differences. Albanians still have strong
   memories and feelings about this period, and would likely try to avoid a
   repeata*|particularly as the only groups who will profit from another
   crises would be the weapons, drugs, and fuel traffickers .

          

    

               3.  What is Berisha's role in neighboring Kosovo and
   Macedonia. Does he have influence with Kosovo leadership? Or Macedonian
   Albanian leadership?

    

               Generally speaking, Berisha does not have much of a role in
   the region. He continues to be viewed as a model of the old leadership.
   Clearly, Kosovo will always          need the support of the Albanian PM
   and his government; however, many Kosovars remember that Berisha gave only
   lukewarm support to the KLA, and was   believed to have profited
   personally by allowing fuel shipments into Serbia and Montenegro, despite
   the NATO embargo at the time. Berisha is still viewed as            
   having too close of ties to Serbia -- one of his closest contacts is Damir
   Fasllic, a character who is believed to have contacts at the highest
   levels of the Serbian           government. Berisha does not appear to
   have particularly strong ties to Macedonia and, with the loss of
   Jukanovic, probably has limited influence in Montenegro as          well

            

    

                4.  If there is a change in government to Edvin Rama, would
   it in any way change the situation in Albania or region?

    

               Edvin Rama is the leader of the Albanian opposition Socialist
   Party -- which represents about 50 % of the Albanian voters. Rama is known
   as a head-strong and       somewhat radical figure amongst the
   international community in Albania. He is not very good at dialoguing --
   often creating situations that neither side can win.           Despite
   these weaknesses, Rama represents the "modern" leader that many Albanians
   have been hoping for since 1990. His work in modernizing and cleaning-up
               the capital has made him very popular, and given him the image
   of someone who can get things done for the people (He has twice been
   re-elected as mayor).          Rama's popularity and modern thinking has
   been commented on favorably by many EU leaders and representatives.

    

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1701218_re-albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1701232</id>
    <title>Re: Albania
</title>
    <description>   He was, until the anarchy.

   I have heard that he in fact profited immensely from the beginnings of KLA
   operations in Kosovo and that he aided them greatly. But that is not at
   all exclusive to this insight. That he then made his money smuggling
   gasoline to Serbia during embargo also makes sense.

   On 1/25/11 7:27 PM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     many Kosovars remember that Berisha gave only lukewarm support to the
     KLA, and was   believed to have profited personally by allowing fuel
     shipments into Serbia and Montenegro, despite the NATO embargo at the
     time.
     so i guess that means the weapons flow in 1997 was not b/c of anything
     Berisha did (err, wait, was he in power back then? my Albanian history
     is getting all jumbled)

     On 1/25/11 6:09 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

       From TrapWire in response to Marko's questions --
        

       Fred -- Just in. Haven't had time to give a good scrub/spell check
       etc. so might be a bit raw. (His English is excellent, but not
       perfect).  M

       ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
          

        

        

        

                   1. Any thoughts on what repercussions unrest in Albania
       could have for the region as a whole?

        

                   Instability in Albania generally means instability within
       the Albanian diaspora in the region.

        

       .         Kosova: Just came out of general elections and is now facing
       an internal crises . The winning party does not have enough votes to
       elect a PM or create a new government. At the same time, the
       leadership of the winning party has been accused for war crimes and
       trafficking in human organs by a Swiss reporter. These issues have
       endangered the current political process towards Kosovo independence.
       Negotiations with Serbia are now on hold. An unstable political
       situation in Albania will be a big loss for Kosovo. Kosovo has no
       representation in international institutions and Albania is her
       biggest supporter and ally regarding Kosovo foreign policy.  A crisis
       in Albania will make the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia, which is
       seeking a division of northern Kosovo.

        

       .         Macedonia: Our neighboring country has a population of 30%
       Albanians, who have been in constant conflict with the Macedonian
       government regarding their rights as a minority. Macedonian-Albanians
       are divided in to two groups:  one that is more liberal and has
       assimilated into Macedonian society; and the other a much more radical
       group that is in conflict Macedonian policies. Add to this Macedonia's
       on-going conflict with Greece, and one could speculate that any major
       crisis in Albania will only compound the problems inside Macedonia --
       particularly for those Albanians seeking greater rights inside
       Macedonia. There is a precedence for this problem during the 1997
       conflict in Albania.

        

       .         Greece: Our only neighboring country with EU membership is
       still going through a very bad political and economic crises itself.
       There are almost 1.5 million Albanians living in Greece -- many are
       illegal immigrants working illegally. Another crises in Albania could
       likely fuel another mass exodus to Greece (and Italy) -- particularly
       now that Albanians can finally travel without visas in Europe.   

        

       2.  After 1997 anarchy, weapons flowed across the borders to Kosovo
       and Macedonia. Any chance that another crisis has an effect on
       neighboring countries?

        

                   In my opinion, it is unlikely the current situation will
       deteriorate to the point of 1997, which was fueled by economic
       collapse rather than only political differences. Albanians still have
       strong memories and feelings about this period, and would likely try
       to avoid a repeat...particularly as the only groups who will profit
       from another crises would be the weapons, drugs, and fuel traffickers
       .

              

        

                   3.  What is Berisha's role in neighboring Kosovo and
       Macedonia. Does he have influence with Kosovo leadership? Or
       Macedonian Albanian leadership?

        

                   Generally speaking, Berisha does not have much of a role
       in the region. He continues to be viewed as a model of the old
       leadership. Clearly, Kosovo will always          need the support of
       the Albanian PM and his government; however, many Kosovars remember
       that Berisha gave only lukewarm support to the KLA, and was   believed
       to have profited personally by allowing fuel shipments into Serbia and
       Montenegro, despite the NATO embargo at the time. Berisha is still
       viewed as             having too close of ties to Serbia -- one of his
       closest contacts is Damir Fasllic, a character who is believed to have
       contacts at the highest levels of the Serbian           government.
       Berisha does not appear to have particularly strong ties to Macedonia
       and, with the loss of Jukanovic, probably has limited influence in
       Montenegro as          well

                

        

                    4.  If there is a change in government to Edvin Rama,
       would it in any way change the situation in Albania or region?

        

                   Edvin Rama is the leader of the Albanian opposition
       Socialist Party -- which represents about 50 % of the Albanian voters.
       Rama is known as a head-strong and       somewhat radical figure
       amongst the international community in Albania. He is not very good at
       dialoguing -- often creating situations that neither side can win.
                 Despite these weaknesses, Rama represents the "modern"
       leader that many Albanians have been hoping for since 1990. His work
       in modernizing and cleaning-up             the capital has made him
       very popular, and given him the image of someone who can get things
       done for the people (He has twice been re-elected as mayor).         
       Rama's popularity and modern thinking has been commented on favorably
       by many EU leaders and representatives.

        

 --
 Marko Papic
 Analyst - Europe
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
</description>
    <date>2011-01-26 02:40:42</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1701232_re-albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bayless.parsley@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1701604</id>
    <title>RE: Surveillance Op Log
</title>
    <description>   One other point --
    
   Think about what Brian or Kyle could have done with a video camera from a
   vehicle when you lost me on 6th street?  Could have played the tape back
   to see where I went.  Mobile surveillance w/discreet video can also
   recover things that the eye does not see, such as the document I left in
   the newspaper box by the church. 
    
   Assume you guys recovered that?  :) 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, August 20, 2009 11:42 AM
   To: 'Lauren Goodrich'; 'Marko Papic'
   Cc: 'Reva Bhalla'; 'lauren'; 'Kristen Cooper'; 'Korena Zucha'; 'Bayless
   Parsley'; 'Catherine Durbin'; 'Alex Posey'; 'ben'; 'Charlie Tafoya';
   'Michael Wilson'; 'Jesse T. Sampson'; 'Kendra Vessels'; 'John Hughes';
   'robert'; 'Rodger Baker'; 'Scott Stewart {6}'; 'Anya Alfano'
   Subject: RE: Surveillance Op Log
   Good work for the first time out.   Not great work, but good enough as a
   first exercise.   Marko's job like any surveillance team leader is
   tough.   Following someone is tough work.  It's not like in the movies. 
    
   Note -
    
   * I did a clothing change out of view as I went down the side walk
   (channel) by the parking garage immediately when the exercise began,
   knowing you would call me out with a description.   Unbeknownst to me, the
   team had lost the eye.  
    
   * The use of bikes was good, except Bayless should ride the bike instead
   of pushing it around.  Odd demeanor hit.    
    
   * Time &amp; distance.  I picked up one of you right away by the park, then
   again later on at the church across town.  Same dress.  Remember the time
   &amp; distance rule.  Any person or vehicle seen over time and distance is
   more then likely surveillance. 
    
   * Missed my informant meet with Rodger and my passing of the Top Secret
   document.  I enjoyed eating lunch and drinking very cold ice tea, watching
   many of you wander by in a panic. 
    
   * Feeling of burned is very normal.  For the most part, if I didn't know
   you, I would not have seen you. 
    
   * Use of the CP was great work.  Fieldmen need to go with their instincts
   and disregard Hqs guidance when in a pinch (sorry Marko) like when you
   lost me and Korena thought I was getting a facial; next time folks fan out
   and find me. 
    
   * Did I meet with a priest?  You will never know....
    
   Next time, you will be ready for OPERATION CURVEBALL. 
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, August 20, 2009 11:20 AM
   To: Marko Papic
   Cc: Reva Bhalla; lauren; Kristen Cooper; Korena Zucha; Bayless Parsley;
   Catherine Durbin; Alex Posey; ben; Charlie Tafoya; Michael Wilson; Jesse
   T. Sampson; Kendra Vessels; John Hughes; robert; Fred Burton; Rodger Baker
   Subject: Surveillance Op Log
   Here are the notes I took if you want them.

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-08-20 18:48:35</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1701604_re-surveillance-op-log-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>rbaker@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anya.alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kristen.cooper@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bayless.parsley@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ben.west@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>charlie.tafoya@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.wilson@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alex.posey@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>catherine.durbin@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kendra.vessels@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>john.hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>robert.ladd-reinfrank@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>jesse.sampson@gmail.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1702550</id>
    <title>Fucking Russian Defense Guys.... 
</title>
    <description>   Hey y'all....
    
   Just wanted to say that I met for 4 hours with the Kremlin's Advisory
   Board to the Ministry of Defense &amp; have enough incredible info to fill
   dozens of pages of intel-all which will make Nate change his pants a few
   times.
    
   But the meeting did not go as well as I wished-they spent the first 45 min
   yelling at me for "forcing" them to meet with them on a Sunday. One guy
   screamed that he was being forcibly kept away from his wife and two babies
   just because "this girl happens to be the darling of a powerful man in the
   Kremlin". Then they yelled at me for being a girl "trying to work in the
   man's defense area" and then for being connected to Stratfor and the
   American Administration. But I had to take it, though I did start shaking
   at one point as they got pretty heated-- but my security team cleared
   their throats to cut off the yelling. I thought that they were going to
   blame me for the Kursk and the fall of the Soviet Union they hated me so
   much.
    
   But we did finally get past all this and discuss the Russian defense
   sector. I have info on the real stuff behind the French Mistral deal for
   this week's meeting. I'll type that stuff up first (hopefully tonight),
   since it is most timely. Then I hope to start getting to the other info as
   I have time. I should have a few hours late tonight as I am staying the
   night at my godfather's house after a dinner he is throwing for me.
    
   I just thought y'all would get a chuckle out of my scoldings at the
   Defense Ministry &amp; to make sure y'all get my info before y'all write on
   the France-Russia mtg this week.
    
   Miss y'all,
   Lauren
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-11-22 17:26:34</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1702550_fucking-russian-defense-guys-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>zeihan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>nathan.hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1704012</id>
    <title>Re: MX1 on guns -- LONG
</title>
    <description>   Asking

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "Fred Burton" &lt;fred.burton@stratfor.com&gt;, "scott stewart"
   &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, February 1, 2011 7:40:19 AM
   Subject: Re: MX1 on guns -- LONG

   Appreciate his detailed response.  Very insightful.

   ATF has always been a red haired step child hated by everyone to include
   the NRA, FBI and Texas gun nuts.  I interned at ATF while in college.
   Their work can be very good but the FBI screws them every chance they can.

   I would like his thoughts on why the MX govt are calling IEDs (bombs
   carried in cars) VBIEDs ?  I sense politics on that part of the MX govt
   to solicit more Obama dollars.....

   Marko Papic wrote:
   &gt; /Here is MX1 take. He will send numbers tomorrow if he can. I will try
   &gt; to get them to you, but note I only will have internet in afternoon. /
   &gt;
   &gt; I don't have access to any of the figures right now on numbers -- not
   &gt; at home -- but
   &gt; I can have them to you by tomorrow.
   &gt;
   &gt; Now, some comments and thoughts:
   &gt;
   &gt; - First off, and as a preamble as far as Mexico City is concerned,
   &gt; neither Mayor Bloomberg's undercover
   &gt; ops in Tucson nor the proposed Arizona Omnibus firearms bill will
   &gt; have a direct impact on gun trafficking toward Mexico.
   &gt;
   &gt; - As I have mentioned before, ATF agents that deal with southbound
   &gt; trafficking directly have stated that they believe it is not 90% of
   &gt; the weapons that come from the US.  They think it's 95%. I don't know
   &gt; whether this is political or not, I think it may be. In that case it
   &gt; is ATF vs.
   &gt; states.
   &gt;
   &gt; - Based on our last assessment of global trafficking towards
   &gt; Mexico, the majority of weapons seized still enter through the
   &gt; US.  However, 2010 saw an increase in seizures that could be traced
   &gt; back to Central America, South America, Caribbean and China.  Many
   &gt; others were untraceable, in large part because they were never
   &gt; entered into E-trace or had scratched out serial numbers and deemed
   &gt; unfit to trace.
   &gt;
   &gt; - There is a major disconnect between Mexican and US authorities on
   &gt; the value of gun tracing.  The way the average mid-management
   &gt; Mexican cop/police commander sees it, tracing is only good for the
   &gt; Americans.  Rarely do we see the arrest or judicial value of
   &gt; tracing the guns.  For the CISEN analysts, this information is very
   &gt; useful, but it is only shared with a few select Mexican individuals
   &gt; who guard the information closely.  Therefore, the conclusion drawn
   &gt; by our assessment in the GC-Armas (Mexico's inter-ministerial
   &gt; working group on gun trafficking), is that little has been done to
   &gt; teach Mexican law enforcement the value of even using E-trace.
   &gt;
   &gt; - Like their narcotic brethren predecessors, we have seen gun
   &gt; trafficking rings adapt and use very, very advanced and creative
   &gt; techniques in smuggling southbound.  As examples, Sinaloa cartel
   &gt; sought out armories that were closing (where any unsold goods
   &gt; automatically become part of private collections and are not
   &gt; subject to any checks) and offered to buy guns in bulk for a good
   &gt; sum.  Also, we saw guns being smuggled in camouflage (as parts on
   &gt; bikes and in hoods of cars).
   &gt;
   &gt; - The most significant adaptation of the gun smuggling rings has
   &gt; been their uncanny ability to obtain guns from further north.  They
   &gt; have been able to forge long-lasting and lucrative business
   &gt; partnerships with several gun stores that can account for an
   &gt; important percentage of seized guns.  However, the alliances with
   &gt; private collectors and networks of people that launder money
   &gt; through gun show businesses are much greater in number, but nearly
   &gt; impossible for Mexican authorities to know about.  An investigation
   &gt; into these networks requires inter-agency cooperation that has not
   &gt; been readily available for ATF.  What we have been able to
   &gt; identify, however, are an increase in the number of movements and
   &gt; middle-men that recruit and handle straw purchasers.
   &gt;
   &gt; - Straw purchasing continues to be the mode of choice for cartels
   &gt; to obtain guns from the US.  As for Central America, buying them
   &gt; from corrupt police, military and gangs is most popular.  --&gt; NOT
   &gt; FOR PUBLICATION: In the case of China, Sinaloa cartel again
   &gt; surprised us by having their own network within NORINCO.  There is
   &gt; currently an international effort to shut this down. So yes, definitely
   &gt; non-American sources as well, but the U.S. is just so close and easy
   &gt; to tap. The narco traffickers already have great networks in the U.S.,
   &gt; branching out to get some guns while selling drugs is easy and not
   &gt; a stretch of imagination.
   &gt;
   &gt; - There is a worry by at least one SRE analyst that because of the
   &gt; higher number of non-US weapons seized, the American gun lobby will
   &gt; use those figures as an excuse to shut down Gunrunner and other
   &gt; programs, and say that Mexico lied about the problem all along.
   &gt; The concern here is that the point is not about statistics or even
   &gt; about where most guns come from.  For this particular analyst, its
   &gt; about the fact that the US has the ability to do something about
   &gt; the flow of arms, while, for example, Belize, probably does not.
   &gt; Therefore, whatever can be done to stop even one gun from crossing,
   &gt; should be done. And that does have to start with our fucking law
   &gt; enforcement starting to use the E-trace.
   &gt;
   &gt; NEXT 3 BULLETS NOT FOR PUBLICATION UNLESS YOU CAN GET THE INFO FROM
   &gt; ANOTHER SOURCE AS WELL
   &gt;
   &gt; - An example of how sophisticated and widespread a network can be
   &gt; can be gleaned from recent operation "Fast &amp; Furious", executed on
   &gt; January 25th.  20 people arrested and 34 total indictments.  A big
   &gt; deal.  The investigation started thanks to intel that we shared with
   &gt; ATF.  The raw data from 195 seizures in Mexico and 372 in Arizona
   &gt; were shared with ATF.  Over the course of many, many months, it
   &gt; became clear that the Lone Wolf gun store in Phoenix could be tied
   &gt; to an unusual number of crime gun traces in Mexico.  Anyway, the
   &gt; cool stuff is not that many of these people were arrested.  In
   &gt; fact, it will matter little, given that these crimes in the US are
   &gt; not only nearly impossible to prosecute, but extremely difficult to
   &gt; convict.  I have not done any checking, but I am willing to bet
   &gt; most of the people arrested are already out or will be soon.
   &gt;
   &gt; - The really cool thing about F&amp;F is the M.O. of the ring that ATF
   &gt; was chasing.  The guy (still wanted in both countries) who is at
   &gt; the center of the ring is Manuel Solis Acosta.  He went out and got
   &gt; 3 main straw purchasers.  These 3 guys then went on to recruit (on
   &gt; average) 14 people each.  They made contact with "El Compa" who
   &gt; runs a restaurant in El Paso immediately off I-10.  At this
   &gt; restaurant, in the back, is a warehouse, where all of the guns were
   &gt; later sent to SINALOA.  The traffickers KNEW that cars were being
   &gt; traced when they crossed southbound via Arizona because SEDENA and
   &gt; SRE knew that guns from AZ were mainly going to that state.  Ergo,
   &gt; they ran their entire stash house in EP and then moved it by land
   &gt; and air to Sinaloa.
   &gt;
   &gt; - When things got hot in EP and some traces of suspicious vehicles
   &gt; started getting done there, they went back to AZ, but used the
   &gt; Tohono O'dham reservation.  Less than a year ago, we intercepted a
   &gt; "Rodeo" van with 37 AKs, all traced back to Mr. Uriel Patino, a
   &gt; known straw-purchaser.  Therefore, what we had was a complex
   &gt; organization with lots and lots of people involved, using various
   &gt; routes, purchasing weapons all over the place, and moving them
   &gt; anywhere they could.  Needless to say, it is very difficult for law
   &gt; enforcement to track these people.  As one ATF agent once told me:
   &gt; "Guns are hard because they are not like drugs.  Drugs are always
   &gt; illegal.  Whether a gun is illegal really depends.  It can be legal
   &gt; one minute and illegal the next, and you can't do anything if it's
   &gt; legal."
   &gt;
   &gt; - Another important point to mention about Gunrunner and our joint
   &gt; efforts to combat trafficking is the high degree of symbolism that
   &gt; this had for Mexico.  Even if Gunrunner has not lived up to
   &gt; expectations, we see a great deal of symbolism in seeing the US try
   &gt; to halt the flow of weapons into cartel hands.  If there were no
   &gt; appearance of efforts made on the US side, I can assure you that
   &gt; any Mexican administration would have a hard time showing that we
   &gt; are fighting a war together and that there is "shared
   &gt; responsibility".  Going after the guns, and the entire Merida
   &gt; Initiative, is more valuable to Mexico due to their symbolism than
   &gt; actual results.  Results are also nice. But this is political in Mexico.
   &gt; Calderon needs to show that he got the Americans to do something
   &gt; because he asked them to. It is an ego thing, but also it is going to
   &gt; go a long way to explain to citizens that sacrifices at home are worth
   &gt; it when Americans are also sacrificing.
   &gt;
   &gt; A final point to make is that many many many officials on the
   &gt; Mexican side are very frustrated by what they are beginning to
   &gt; understand is a system that was never meant to hold any water.  US
   &gt; gun laws are designed to be hard to prosecute and enforce.  ATF
   &gt; funding is abysmal (could this be reason they say 95 percent).
   &gt; However, we have only recently begun true efforts  to understand
   &gt; how gun laws and the system works in the US. Before, we just gave
   &gt; up and made a fuss. Threw a fit here or there.  More and more, we are
   &gt; getting to understand the intricacies of the 2nd amendment and its
   &gt; incredible reach.  If only we understood this in May of 2010,
   &gt; President Calderon would not have been so ill advised as to talk to
   &gt; Americans about their guns in his speech to Congress. That was
   &gt; stupid, but they did not let me write the speech (just kidding).
   &gt;
   &gt; Personal take:
   &gt;
   &gt; The figures and exact numbers are not important to me.  However,
   &gt; there are some in the the gun rights lobby saying that no American
   &gt; guns cross the border to Mexico. That's crazy! If drugs can come
   &gt; north, guns can come south.
   &gt;
   &gt; We have drugs, you have guns! Cartels do not have to go to China
   &gt; for weapons? Why? They just ask cousin Jose in Chicago who knows a
   &gt; guy who knows a guy. So yes, I can see 95 percent figure being
   &gt; misleading. But I have no doubt that the U.S. guns are the
   &gt; majority. It's simple geography. They are right there.  If cartels
   &gt; get their weapons from other places as well, its because they
   &gt; follow the same logic of expansion as they do with their drug
   &gt; distribution.  You'd think that, at a time when the MX Gov is
   &gt; fighting you, you would not want to expand markets into Europe,
   &gt; LatAm and Asia.  However, this is exactly what they have done.
   &gt; Accordingly, they will find other and new ways to obtain guns.
   &gt; Maybe in 10 years most guns will come from China.  However, right
   &gt; now, most come from the US.
   &gt;
   &gt; At the working level, we have no desire to intervene or seen to be
   &gt; intervening in US domestic laws on the gun issue.  We understand
   &gt; that touching guns would be like Americans telling us what to do with
   &gt; our Petroleum.
   &gt;
   &gt; As a final note, I would add and emphasize that this issue is not
   &gt; only about effectiveness and national security.  It is also about
   &gt; domestic politics -- in Mexico.  It is unfortunate and sad, but it is a
   &gt; big part of why the issue is so difficult to tackle.
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt; --
   &gt; Marko Papic
   &gt;
   &gt; STRATFOR Analyst
   &gt; C: + 1-512-905-3091
   &gt; marko.papic@stratfor.com
   &gt;
   &gt;

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-09 05:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1704012_re-mx1-on-guns-long-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>fred.burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1704275</id>
    <title>Re: S-weekly for comment - Mexico and the 90 Percent Myth
</title>
    <description>   looks really well-written and concise to me. I have no comments.

   -----------------
   Reginald Thompson

   Cell: (011) 504 8990-7741

   OSINT
   Stratfor

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, February 8, 2011 12:07:06 PM
   Subject: S-weekly for comment - Mexico and the 90 Percent Myth

    

   I was planning on doing a section on the hyped-up VBIED rhetoric, but when
   I finished the gun section I saw I was already over 1800 words, so I
   decided to do a second piece later on the topic of VBIED hype.

    

   Mexico and the 90 Percent Myth

   Related Links:

   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/mexico_dynamics_gun_trade

   http://www.stratfor.com/pro/portal/mexico

   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20101218-mexican-drug-wars-bloodiest-year-date

    

    

   External link:  http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09709.pdf

    

    

   For several years now Stratfor has been closely watching developments in
   Mexico that relate to what we consider the [link:
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090218_mexico_third_war  ] three wars
   being waged there. Those three wars are the war between the various drug
   cartels; the war between the government and the cartels and the war being
   waged against citizens and businesses by criminals.

    

   In addition to watching the cartel wars develop on the ground tactically
   and studying the dynamic of the conflict between the various warring
   factions, we have also been paying close attention to the way that the
   Mexican and U.S. governments have reacted to these developments. Perhaps
   one of the most interesting aspects to watch has been the way in which the
   Mexican government has attempted to deflect responsibility for the cartel
   wars away from itself and onto the United States. According to this
   Mexican narrative, the cartel wars are not a result of corruption in
   Mexico or of economic and societal dynamics that leave many Mexicans
   marginalized and desperate to find a way to make a living.  Instead, the
   cartel wars are due to the insatiable American appetite for narcotics and
   the endless stream of guns that flows from the United States into Mexico
   and that results in Mexican violence.    

    

   The part of this Mexican political narrative pertaining to guns has been
   adopted by some politicians and government officials in the United States
   in recent years. It has now become quite common to hear U.S. officials
   confidently note that 90 percent of the illegal guns in Mexico come from
   the U.S.  However, a close examination of the dynamics of the cartel wars
   in Mexico -- and of how the oft-echoed 90 percent number was reached --
   clearly demonstrate the number is more political rhetoric than fact.

    

   By the Numbers   

    

   As wea**ve discussed in a [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090708_mexico_economics_and_arms_trade ]
   previous analysis, the 90 percent number was derived from a June 2009 U.S.
   Government  Accountability Office (GAO) report to Congress on U.S. efforts
   to combat arms trafficking to Mexico (see the external link). 

   According to the June 2009 GAO report, some 30,000 firearms were seized
   from criminals by Mexican officials in 2008. Of these 30,000 firearms,
   information pertaining to 7,200 of them, (24 percent) was submitted to the
   U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) for
   tracing. Of these 7,200 guns, only about 4,000 could be traced by the ATF,
   and of these 4,000, some 3,480 (87 percent) were shown to have come from
   the United States.

   This means that the 87 percent figure relates to the number of weapons
   submitted by the Mexican government to the ATF that could be successfully
   traced and not from the total number of weapons seized by the Mexicans or
   even from the total number of weapons submitted to the ATF for tracing. In
   fact, the 3,480 guns positively traced to the United States equals less
   than 12 percent of the total arms seized in Mexico in 2008 and less than
   48 percent of all those submitted by the Mexican government to the ATF for
   tracing.

   In addition to the fact that many of the weapons either do not bear serial
   numbers or have had their serial numbers altered or obliterated, it is
   important to understand that the Mexican authorities simply dona**t bother
   to submit some classes of weapons to the ATF for tracing. Such weapons
   include firearms they identify as coming from their own military or police
   forces or that they can trace back themselves as being sold through the
   Mexican Defense Departmenta**s Arms and Ammunition Marketing Division
   (UCAM). Likewise, they do not ask ATF to trace military ordnance from
   third countries like the South Korean fragmentation grenades commonly used
   in cartel attacks.

   This point leads us to consider the types of weapons being used by the
   cartels and which types of these weapons can be successfully traced by the
   ATF.

    

   Types and Sources of Guns

   To gain an understanding of the dynamics of the gun flow inside Mexico, it
   helps if one divides the guns seized by Mexican authorities from criminals
   into three broad categories -- which, incidentally, just happen to come
   from different sources.

     

   The first category of weapons encountered in Mexico is weapons available
   legally for sale in Mexico through UCAM. These include handguns smaller
   than a .357 magnum such as .380, .38 Super and .38 Special. 

    

   Many popular handgun calibers such as 9mm .45 cal, .40 cal handguns are
   reserved for the military and police, and are not available for sale to
   civilians in Mexico. These guns, which are legally sold and very popular
   in the U.S. yet unavailable in Mexico, comprise our second category.  This
   category also includes.50 caliber rifles, semi-Automatic versions of
   assault rifles like the AK-47 and M-16 family, FN Five-Seven pistols, etc.

    

   The third category of weapons encountered in Mexico is military grade
   ordnance not generally available for sale within the U.S. or Mexico.  This
   category includes hand grenades, 40 mm grenades, rocket-propelled
   grenades, fully automatic assault rifles and main battle rifles, light
   machine guns, etc.

    

   A large portion of the category one guns used by criminals are purchased
   in Mexico. While UNAM does have very strict regulations for civilians to
   purchase guns, criminals will use straw purchasers to obtain firearms from
   UCAM or obtain them from corrupt officials.  It is not uncommon to see .38
   Super pistols seized from cartel figures and many of these pistols are of
   Mexican origin. Likewise, cartel hitmen in Mexico commonly use [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/mexico_applying_protective_intelligence_lens_cartel_war_violence
   ].380 pistols equipped with suppressors in their assassinations.  In many
   cases, these pistols are purchased in Mexico, the suppressors are locally
   manufactured and the guns adapted to receive them by Mexican gunsmiths. 

    

   It must be noted though that due to the cost and hassle of purchasing guns
   in Mexico, some of the guns in this category will be purchased in the U.S.
   and smuggled into the country. There are a lot of cheap .380a**s available
   on the U.S. market. But still, it is quite unlikely that 90 percent of
   these category one guns come from the US.

    

   Additionally, most of the explosives the cartels have been using in
   improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in Mexico over the past year have used
   commercially available Tovex and we therefore consider these explosives to
   be category one munitions. These IEDs are another area where the rhetoric
   has been very interesting to watch,a nd we will explore this topic in a
   later analysis.

   When we consider the guns in group two, a large number of them are indeed
   purchased in the U.S. Although there are many .45 and 9mm pistols and .357
   revolvers obtained from deserters from the Mexican military and police,
   purchased from corrupt Mexican authorities, or even brought in from South
   America (guns manufactured by Taurus, Bersa, etc.)  This category also
   includes semi automatic variants of assault rifles and main battle rifles
   which are oftentimes converted to be capable of full automatic fire by
   Mexican gunsmiths.

    

   One can buy these types of weapons on the international arms market, but
   one pays a premium for such guns and it is cheaper and easier to simply
   buy them in the U.S. or South America and smuggle them into Mexico. In
   fact, there is an entire cottage industry that has developed to smuggle
   such weapons, and not all the customers are narcos. There are many wealthy
   Mexicans who own illegal guns in calibers such as .45, 9mm, .40 and .44
   magnum for self-defense. Many Mexicans  simply want to own and carry a
   large-caliber handgun a** even if it is illegal.

    

   The weapons in group three are fairly difficult and very expensive to
   obtain in the U.S. (especially in the large numbers in which the cartels
   are employing them). They are also dangerous to obtain in the U.S. due to
   heavy law enforcement scrutiny. Therefore, most of the military ordnance
   used by the Mexican cartels comes from other sources, such as the
   international arms market (increasingly from China via the same networks
   that furnish precursor chemicals for narcotics manufacturing), or from
   corrupt elements in the Mexican military or even deserters who take their
   weapons with them. Besides, items such as South Korean fragmentation
   grenades and RPG-7a**s simply are not in the U.S. arsenal. The end result
   is that very few of the Category 3 weapons come from the U.S.

    

   In recent years the cartels (especially enforcer groups such as Los Zetas,
   Los Negros, and La Linea) have been increasingly using military ordnance
   instead of sporting arms. A close examination of the arms seized from
   these enforcer groups and their [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100517_mexico_security_memo_may_17_2010
   ] training camps clearly demonstrates this trend toward military ordnance
   a** including many weapons not readily available in the U.S.   Some of
   these seizures have included M-60 machineguns and [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090330_mexico_security_memo_march_30_2009
   ] hundreds of .40mm grenades obtained from foreign military arsenals.

    

   There are also some cases of overlap between classes of weapons. For
   example, the [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20081112_worrying_signs_border_raids ] FN
   Five-Seven pistol is available for commercial purchase in the U.S., but
   the 5.7 X 28 armor-piercing ammunition for the pistol favored by the
   cartels is not a** it is a restricted item. However, some of the Special
   Forces units in the Mexican military are issued the Five-Seven as well as
   the FN P-90 personal defense weapon, which also shoots the 5.7 X 28 round
   a** and the cartels are obtaining some weapons as well as the
   armor-piercing ammunition from them, and not from the U.S. Conversely, we
   see bulk 5.56 and 7.62 ammunition bought in the U.S. and smuggled into
   Mexico where it is used in fully-automatic AKs and M-16s purchased
   elsewhere.  As noted above, China has become an increasingly common source
   for military weapons like grenades and fully automatic assault rifles in
   recent years.

    

   To really understand Mexicoa**s gun problem, however, it is necessary to
   recognize that the same economic law of demand that fuels drug smuggling
   into the U.S. also fuels gun smuggling into Mexico.  The consequences of
   this law dictate that even if it were somehow possible to hermetically
   seal the U.S./Mexico border, and shut off all the guns coming from the
   U.S., the cartels would still be able to obtain weapons elsewhere a** just
   as narcotics would continue to flow to the U.S. via other routes. The U.S.
   provides cheap and easy access to certain types of weapons but as
   demonstrated by groups such as the FARC in Colombia, weapons can be easily
   obtained from other places via the black arms market -- albeit at a higher
   price.

    

   There has clearly been a long and well-documented history of arms
   smuggling across the U.S./Mexico border, but it is also important to
   recognize that while the U.S. is a significant source of certain classes
   of weapons and ammunition, it is by no means the source of 90 percent of
   the weapons used by the cartels.

    

    

    

    

   Scott Stewart

   STRATFOR

   Office: 814 967 4046

   Cell: 814 573 8297

   scott.stewart@stratfor.com

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-02-08 19:44:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1704275_re-s-weekly-for-comment-mexico-and-the-90-percent-myth-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reginald.thompson@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1704294</id>
    <title>S-weekly for comment - Mexico and the 90 Percent Myth
</title>
    <description>    

   I was planning on doing a section on the hyped-up VBIED rhetoric, but when
   I finished the gun section I saw I was already over 1800 words, so I
   decided to do a second piece later on the topic of VBIED hype.

    

   Mexico and the 90 Percent Myth

   Related Links:

   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/mexico_dynamics_gun_trade

   http://www.stratfor.com/pro/portal/mexico

   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20101218-mexican-drug-wars-bloodiest-year-date

    

    

   External link:  http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09709.pdf

    

    

   For several years now Stratfor has been closely watching developments in
   Mexico that relate to what we consider the [link:
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090218_mexico_third_war  ] three wars
   being waged there. Those three wars are the war between the various drug
   cartels; the war between the government and the cartels and the war being
   waged against citizens and businesses by criminals.

    

   In addition to watching the cartel wars develop on the ground tactically
   and studying the dynamic of the conflict between the various warring
   factions, we have also been paying close attention to the way that the
   Mexican and U.S. governments have reacted to these developments. Perhaps
   one of the most interesting aspects to watch has been the way in which the
   Mexican government has attempted to deflect responsibility for the cartel
   wars away from itself and onto the United States. According to this
   Mexican narrative, the cartel wars are not a result of corruption in
   Mexico or of economic and societal dynamics that leave many Mexicans
   marginalized and desperate to find a way to make a living.  Instead, the
   cartel wars are due to the insatiable American appetite for narcotics and
   the endless stream of guns that flows from the United States into Mexico
   and that results in Mexican violence.    

    

   The part of this Mexican political narrative pertaining to guns has been
   adopted by some politicians and government officials in the United States
   in recent years. It has now become quite common to hear U.S. officials
   confidently note that 90 percent of the illegal guns in Mexico come from
   the U.S.  However, a close examination of the dynamics of the cartel wars
   in Mexico -- and of how the oft-echoed 90 percent number was reached --
   clearly demonstrate the number is more political rhetoric than fact.

    

   By the Numbers   

    

   As we've discussed in a [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090708_mexico_economics_and_arms_trade ]
   previous analysis, the 90 percent number was derived from a June 2009 U.S.
   Government  Accountability Office (GAO) report to Congress on U.S. efforts
   to combat arms trafficking to Mexico (see the external link). 

   According to the June 2009 GAO report, some 30,000 firearms were seized
   from criminals by Mexican officials in 2008. Of these 30,000 firearms,
   information pertaining to 7,200 of them, (24 percent) was submitted to the
   U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) for
   tracing. Of these 7,200 guns, only about 4,000 could be traced by the ATF,
   and of these 4,000, some 3,480 (87 percent) were shown to have come from
   the United States.

   This means that the 87 percent figure relates to the number of weapons
   submitted by the Mexican government to the ATF that could be successfully
   traced and not from the total number of weapons seized by the Mexicans or
   even from the total number of weapons submitted to the ATF for tracing. In
   fact, the 3,480 guns positively traced to the United States equals less
   than 12 percent of the total arms seized in Mexico in 2008 and less than
   48 percent of all those submitted by the Mexican government to the ATF for
   tracing.

   In addition to the fact that many of the weapons either do not bear serial
   numbers or have had their serial numbers altered or obliterated, it is
   important to understand that the Mexican authorities simply don't bother
   to submit some classes of weapons to the ATF for tracing. Such weapons
   include firearms they identify as coming from their own military or police
   forces or that they can trace back themselves as being sold through the
   Mexican Defense Department's Arms and Ammunition Marketing Division
   (UCAM). Likewise, they do not ask ATF to trace military ordnance from
   third countries like the South Korean fragmentation grenades commonly used
   in cartel attacks.

   This point leads us to consider the types of weapons being used by the
   cartels and which types of these weapons can be successfully traced by the
   ATF.

    

   Types and Sources of Guns

   To gain an understanding of the dynamics of the gun flow inside Mexico, it
   helps if one divides the guns seized by Mexican authorities from criminals
   into three broad categories -- which, incidentally, just happen to come
   from different sources.

     

   The first category of weapons encountered in Mexico is weapons available
   legally for sale in Mexico through UCAM. These include handguns smaller
   than a .357 magnum such as .380, .38 Super and .38 Special. 

    

   Many popular handgun calibers such as 9mm .45 cal, .40 cal handguns are
   reserved for the military and police, and are not available for sale to
   civilians in Mexico. These guns, which are legally sold and very popular
   in the U.S. yet unavailable in Mexico, comprise our second category.  This
   category also includes.50 caliber rifles, semi-Automatic versions of
   assault rifles like the AK-47 and M-16 family, FN Five-Seven pistols, etc.

    

   The third category of weapons encountered in Mexico is military grade
   ordnance not generally available for sale within the U.S. or Mexico.  This
   category includes hand grenades, 40 mm grenades, rocket-propelled
   grenades, fully automatic assault rifles and main battle rifles, light
   machine guns, etc.

    

   A large portion of the category one guns used by criminals are purchased
   in Mexico. While UNAM does have very strict regulations for civilians to
   purchase guns, criminals will use straw purchasers to obtain firearms from
   UCAM or obtain them from corrupt officials.  It is not uncommon to see .38
   Super pistols seized from cartel figures and many of these pistols are of
   Mexican origin. Likewise, cartel hitmen in Mexico commonly use [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/mexico_applying_protective_intelligence_lens_cartel_war_violence
   ].380 pistols equipped with suppressors in their assassinations.  In many
   cases, these pistols are purchased in Mexico, the suppressors are locally
   manufactured and the guns adapted to receive them by Mexican gunsmiths. 

    

   It must be noted though that due to the cost and hassle of purchasing guns
   in Mexico, some of the guns in this category will be purchased in the U.S.
   and smuggled into the country. There are a lot of cheap .380's available
   on the U.S. market. But still, it is quite unlikely that 90 percent of
   these category one guns come from the US.

    

   Additionally, most of the explosives the cartels have been using in
   improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in Mexico over the past year have used
   commercially available Tovex and we therefore consider these explosives to
   be category one munitions. These IEDs are another area where the rhetoric
   has been very interesting to watch,a nd we will explore this topic in a
   later analysis.

   When we consider the guns in group two, a large number of them are indeed
   purchased in the U.S. Although there are many .45 and 9mm pistols and .357
   revolvers obtained from deserters from the Mexican military and police,
   purchased from corrupt Mexican authorities, or even brought in from South
   America (guns manufactured by Taurus, Bersa, etc.)  This category also
   includes semi automatic variants of assault rifles and main battle rifles
   which are oftentimes converted to be capable of full automatic fire by
   Mexican gunsmiths.

    

   One can buy these types of weapons on the international arms market, but
   one pays a premium for such guns and it is cheaper and easier to simply
   buy them in the U.S. or South America and smuggle them into Mexico. In
   fact, there is an entire cottage industry that has developed to smuggle
   such weapons, and not all the customers are narcos. There are many wealthy
   Mexicans who own illegal guns in calibers such as .45, 9mm, .40 and .44
   magnum for self-defense. Many Mexicans  simply want to own and carry a
   large-caliber handgun - even if it is illegal.

    

   The weapons in group three are fairly difficult and very expensive to
   obtain in the U.S. (especially in the large numbers in which the cartels
   are employing them). They are also dangerous to obtain in the U.S. due to
   heavy law enforcement scrutiny. Therefore, most of the military ordnance
   used by the Mexican cartels comes from other sources, such as the
   international arms market (increasingly from China via the same networks
   that furnish precursor chemicals for narcotics manufacturing), or from
   corrupt elements in the Mexican military or even deserters who take their
   weapons with them. Besides, items such as South Korean fragmentation
   grenades and RPG-7's simply are not in the U.S. arsenal. The end result is
   that very few of the Category 3 weapons come from the U.S.

    

   In recent years the cartels (especially enforcer groups such as Los Zetas,
   Los Negros, and La Linea) have been increasingly using military ordnance
   instead of sporting arms. A close examination of the arms seized from
   these enforcer groups and their [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100517_mexico_security_memo_may_17_2010
   ] training camps clearly demonstrates this trend toward military ordnance
   - including many weapons not readily available in the U.S.   Some of these
   seizures have included M-60 machineguns and [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090330_mexico_security_memo_march_30_2009
   ] hundreds of .40mm grenades obtained from foreign military arsenals.

    

   There are also some cases of overlap between classes of weapons. For
   example, the [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20081112_worrying_signs_border_raids ] FN
   Five-Seven pistol is available for commercial purchase in the U.S., but
   the 5.7 X 28 armor-piercing ammunition for the pistol favored by the
   cartels is not - it is a restricted item. However, some of the Special
   Forces units in the Mexican military are issued the Five-Seven as well as
   the FN P-90 personal defense weapon, which also shoots the 5.7 X 28 round
   - and the cartels are obtaining some weapons as well as the armor-piercing
   ammunition from them, and not from the U.S. Conversely, we see bulk 5.56
   and 7.62 ammunition bought in the U.S. and smuggled into Mexico where it
   is used in fully-automatic AKs and M-16s purchased elsewhere.  As noted
   above, China has become an increasingly common source for military weapons
   like grenades and fully automatic assault rifles in recent years.

    

   To really understand Mexico's gun problem, however, it is necessary to
   recognize that the same economic law of demand that fuels drug smuggling
   into the U.S. also fuels gun smuggling into Mexico.  The consequences of
   this law dictate that even if it were somehow possible to hermetically
   seal the U.S./Mexico border, and shut off all the guns coming from the
   U.S., the cartels would still be able to obtain weapons elsewhere - just
   as narcotics would continue to flow to the U.S. via other routes. The U.S.
   provides cheap and easy access to certain types of weapons but as
   demonstrated by groups such as the FARC in Colombia, weapons can be easily
   obtained from other places via the black arms market -- albeit at a higher
   price.

    

   There has clearly been a long and well-documented history of arms
   smuggling across the U.S./Mexico border, but it is also important to
   recognize that while the U.S. is a significant source of certain classes
   of weapons and ammunition, it is by no means the source of 90 percent of
   the weapons used by the cartels.

    

    

    

    

   Scott Stewart

   STRATFOR

   Office: 814 967 4046

   Cell: 814 573 8297

   scott.stewart@stratfor.com

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-02-08 19:07:06</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1704294_s-weekly-for-comment-mexico-and-the-90-percent-myth-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1705693</id>
    <title>Re: [OS] GERMANY - Report says Bundeswehr lied during Kunduz strike
</title>
    <description>   This is getting bigger and bigger. I don't see this becoming a serious
   issue for Merkel. But this is NOT going to help in US-German relations.
   Note that this was an ISAF report, which I can only imagine was written by
   Americans.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "os" &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, December 23, 2009 7:49:00 AM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: [OS] GERMANY - Report says Bundeswehr lied during Kunduz strike

   Report says Bundeswehr lied during Kunduz strike

   Published: 23 Dec 09 10:02 CET
   Online: http://www.thelocal.de/national/20091223-24131.html

   The German military deliberately misled the American fighter pilots who
   carried out the Kunduz air strikes in which up to 142 Afghans, including
   many civilians, were killed, daily Frankfurter Rundschau reported
   Wednesday.

   Citing a confidential investigation report by the International Security
   Assistance Force (ISAF), the paper reported that Bundeswehr Colonel Georg
   Kleina**s communications officer falsely claimed the German troops had
   a**enemy contacta** to justify the September 4 strike.

   According to the report, the officer, codenamed "Red Baron 21," was acting
   on instructions from Col. Georg Klein, who ordered the deadly air strike.

   Red Baron 21 knowingly misled the flight control centre that was
   instructing the two F-15 fighters that carried out the attack, saying
   troops were in a**immediate dangera** in order a**to make it possible for
   the mission to go ahead,a** the ISAF report said, according to the
   Frankfurter Rundschau.

   But no such enemy contact had taken place. Under the ISAF rules, such an
   air strike can only go ahead if troops are under fire or immediately
   threatened. But at the time of the attack, the nearest German troops were
   nearly eight kilometres away in the Kunduz Bundeswehr field camp. If the
   report is correct, then the Germans breached the regulations.

   The victims of the air strike on two hijacked petrol tankers included many
   civilians, sparking a political maelstrom in Germany. Franz Josef Jung,
   who was Defence Minister at the time of the attack, was forced to resign
   along with Germanya**s top soldier Wolfgang Schneiderhahn and senior
   Defence Ministry bureaucrat Peter Wichert after it emerged the government
   had falsely claimed no civilians were killed in the attack.

   Now there is increasing pressure on Junga**s successor, Karl-Theodor zu
   Guttenberg, along with Chancellor Angela Merkel, to explain the
   information debacle that followed the attack. The lower house of the
   parliament or Bundestag, will begin an inquiry into the governmenta**s
   handling of the affair in January.

   The latest revelations will increase the stakes further.

   News magazine Der Spiegel recently reported that Col. Klein turned down
   the F-15 pilotsa** request to do a a**fly overa** of the two stranded
   tankers, giving the people on the ground time to flee.

   This fact, along with the alleged false claim that German troops had had
   contact with the Taliban, would mean Col. Klein breached ISAF protocols on
   air strikes

   http://www.thelocal.de/national/20091223-24131.html
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-08 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1705693_re-os-germany-report-says-bundeswehr-lied-during-kunduz.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1705733</id>
    <title>RE: MX1
</title>
    <description>   Of course.  He will be protected. 
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, October 22, 2009 6:17 PM
   To: Fred Burton
   Subject: MX1
   Hey Fred,

   I was talking to MX1 and he said that it was great to see you working in
   DPS.

   I mentioned to him that Stephen, who MX1 met in Austin, also now works for
   DPS. He was a little concerned about that and asked if Stratfor has all
   its employees sign confidentiality agreements. He said that it would make
   his work liaison-ing with DPS difficult if his relationship with Stratfor
   was known outside of the CT group in Stratfor.

   Do you think you could perhaps mention that to Stephen one more time. I
   know Stephen knows how to handle himself, but in the context of his
   official work for the Mexican government, MX1 could come across Stephen's
   office in the future and it would be a  problem if the relationship
   between MX1-Stratfor was revealed.

   Looking forward to seeing you in a few weeks by the way. I've had an
   interesting time in Europe. My final stop, Bosnia, is on Monday.

   Cheers,

   Marko
</description>
    <date>2009-10-23 01:38:52</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-03 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1705733_re-mx1-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1705981</id>
    <title>Re: BRIEF - COMMENT/EDIT - EU/GREECE: No Bailout for Greece? - NO
 MAILOUT
</title>
    <description>   It was meant as Athens' perception. Note that I say it is politically
   untenable for EU to do so.

   Kevin Stech wrote:

     If Athens does not take this seriously, and instead waits until Brussels
     is forced to bail it out, the EU could find itself having to bail
     Portugal as well. This will quickly become politically untenable for the
     big EU economies Germany and France who are facing difficult economic
     situations at home. The onus is therefore on stopping the bleeding in
     Greece by showing investors that the EU has enough clout to force its
     member states to fix their fiscal policies through persuasion alone.

     Remember our conversation with George when he brought up the point that
     the EU could also let Greece default and then put big resources behind
     the next domino when the markets inevitably tested it?  I thought that
     was a valid scenario.  Why do we assume that Brussels will be "forced"
     to bail Greece out?

     Robert Reinfrank wrote:

       nice

       Marko Papic wrote:

         Speaking at the sidelines of the Davos annual meeting in Switzerland
         the EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner, Joaquin Almunia said in an
         interview to Bloomberg on Jan. 29 that the EU policymakers had no
         "plan B" to help Greece. Almunia said that "Greece will not default.
         In the euro area, default does not exist." Almunia also called
         newspaper reports about a possible euro bailout of Greece as
         "sensationalist". Rumors, however, continued to swirl with U.K.
         newspaper Financial Times citing unnamed EU officials as preparing
         for a possible Greek bailout. While there are certainly contingency
         plans that the EU has to be discussing in the light of declining
         demand for Greek government bonds, which is now also trickling down
         to demand for Greek corporate bonds as well, a bailout of Greece is
         not in the short-term plans of the EU. The EU wants Greece to fix
         its own problems and implement a detailed, credible and painful
         budget austerity plan, much as Ireland did in December. If Athens
         does not take this seriously, and instead waits until Brussels is
         forced to bail it out, the EU could find itself having to bail
         Portugal as well. This will quickly become politically untenable for
         the big EU economies Germany and France who are facing difficult
         economic situations at home. The onus is therefore on stopping the
         bleeding in Greece by showing investors that the EU has enough clout
         to force its member states to fix their fiscal policies through
         persuasion alone.

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-01-29 15:27:51</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2001-03-13 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1705981_re-brief-comment-edit-eu-greece-no-bailout-for-greece-no.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1707112</id>
    <title>Re: Albania
</title>
    <description>   Words like "adherence to rules of engagement", "schooled", "non-lethal
   options".... there is no place for those words in a place like Albania.

   :)

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Nate Hughes" &lt;nathan.hughes@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2011 11:50:07 AM
   Subject: Re: Albania

   Ensuring adherence to rules of engagement (assuming there has even been
   stern, clear guidance given) in riot control scenarios can itself be
   difficult. Combine that with police who may not be well schooled in it and
   do not have a whole lot of non-lethal options besides a club, and you've
   got a recipe for people getting shot.

   That said, agree that the significance is the political and the popular
   perception of what happened.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Alex Hayward &lt;alex.hayward@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2011 11:44:15 -0600 (CST)
   To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Albania
   According to the AP, "The Prosecutor General's office said arrest warrants
   had been issued for six officers of the National Guard, army troops under
   Interior Ministry command who guard government institutions and senior
   officials."

   On 1/22/11 9:42 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     Is there a chance The cops were not actually the ones who killed the
     three? I didnt see any reports or photos indicating the riot police even
     had guns. And the type of pistol used to fire the rounds was listed in
     an article yesterday. I know nothing about guns so am of no use here,
     but would it be helpful to know The kind of firearm used?

     Either way, doesnt matter. All that matters is the political angle and
     the fact that the opposition perceives the police to be culpable

     Btw artillery?!

     On 2011 Jan 22, at 08:51, Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

         From TrapWire contact (former CIA clandestine officer)

       Not sure if STRATFOR's following events there -- but I chatted with
       some
       contacts in Tirana and tomorrow (Sunday) protests are expected to be
       even larger than yesterday's -- with many in the crowd bent on
       retaliation for the police killing of three protestors. (As always,
       rumor mills are in overdrive in the Balkans with claims being made
       that
       the cops targeted these protestors for assassination. No proof yet
       that
       that's the case. Having dealt with Albanian cops for three years, I
       can
       assure you though they dona**t need much pushing to draw their
       weapons.
       They actually fired artillery rounds onto protestors during the chaos
       of
       '97). Tough times in Tirana right now.

       Mike

 --
 Alex Hayward
 STRATFOR Research Intern

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1707112_re-albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>nathan.hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1707523</id>
    <title>Re: Albania
</title>
    <description>   Words like "adherence to rules of engagement", "schooled", "non-lethal
   options".... there is no place for those words in a place like Albania.

   :)

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Nate Hughes" &lt;nathan.hughes@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2011 11:50:07 AM
   Subject: Re: Albania

   Ensuring adherence to rules of engagement (assuming there has even been
   stern, clear guidance given) in riot control scenarios can itself be
   difficult. Combine that with police who may not be well schooled in it and
   do not have a whole lot of non-lethal options besides a club, and you've
   got a recipe for people getting shot.

   That said, agree that the significance is the political and the popular
   perception of what happened.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Alex Hayward &lt;alex.hayward@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2011 11:44:15 -0600 (CST)
   To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Albania
   According to the AP, "The Prosecutor General's office said arrest warrants
   had been issued for six officers of the National Guard, army troops under
   Interior Ministry command who guard government institutions and senior
   officials."

   On 1/22/11 9:42 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     Is there a chance The cops were not actually the ones who killed the
     three? I didnt see any reports or photos indicating the riot police even
     had guns. And the type of pistol used to fire the rounds was listed in
     an article yesterday. I know nothing about guns so am of no use here,
     but would it be helpful to know The kind of firearm used?

     Either way, doesnt matter. All that matters is the political angle and
     the fact that the opposition perceives the police to be culpable

     Btw artillery?!

     On 2011 Jan 22, at 08:51, Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

         From TrapWire contact (former CIA clandestine officer)

       Not sure if STRATFOR's following events there -- but I chatted with
       some
       contacts in Tirana and tomorrow (Sunday) protests are expected to be
       even larger than yesterday's -- with many in the crowd bent on
       retaliation for the police killing of three protestors. (As always,
       rumor mills are in overdrive in the Balkans with claims being made
       that
       the cops targeted these protestors for assassination. No proof yet
       that
       that's the case. Having dealt with Albanian cops for three years, I
       can
       assure you though they dona**t need much pushing to draw their
       weapons.
       They actually fired artillery rounds onto protestors during the chaos
       of
       '97). Tough times in Tirana right now.

       Mike

 --
 Alex Hayward
 STRATFOR Research Intern

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 20:11:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1707523_re-albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>nathan.hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1708759</id>
    <title>Re: [Analytical &amp; Intelligence Comments] RE: Taking Stock of WikiLeaks
</title>
    <description>   Feel free but I think that it was in a seance while using peyote.
   On 12/14/10 10:44 , Sean Noonan wrote:

     anybody mind if I respond to this guy and ask him about his source(s)?

     On 12/14/10 9:39 AM, MSE.CaptainMcCright@gmail.com wrote:

       MSE.CaptainMcCright@gmail.com sent a message using the contact form at
       https://www.stratfor.com/contact.

       I understand appoximately 20 people have lost their lives.
       due to  the sensitive nature of their work and a now public
       disclosure.

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

   --

   George Friedman

   Founder and CEO

   Stratfor

   700 Lavaca Street

   Suite 900

   Austin, Texas 78701

   Phone  512-744-4319

   Fax  512-744-4334
</description>
    <date>2010-12-14 17:47:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 23:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1708759_re-analytical-and-intelligence-comments-re-taking-stock-of.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1708856</id>
    <title>Re: 
</title>
    <description>   Sorry! page 168 of the PDF ITSELF, not of the actual printed document. And
   I was wrong... the debt is like 99% domestically held. Which oh by the way
   makes letting Greece implode SO much easier.

   "You lie to us about stats... you can't get your spending in order... AND
   you owe yourself?! Why are we thinking of bailing you out again?!"

   Hintz, Lisa wrote:

     I couldn't find it, but that is fine.  I believe you, and if I need
     them, I will have you dig them up!  If they hold that much debt, they
     will have to mark it to market in March which will be a HUGE hit to
     their capital base.  They were all recapitalized this past summer (by
     the government) but, depending on how much each one holds relative to
     their capital base, some could literally be insolvent.

      

     Lisa Hintz
     Capital Markets Research Group
     Moody's Analytics
     212-553-7151 

     From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Friday, February 05, 2010 3:32 PM
     To: Hintz, Lisa
     Subject: Re:

      

     You are definitely right. Greek banks took disproportionate percent
     (relative to their economy compared to overall eurozone economy) of
     those 1 year unlimited fund auctions by the ECB. This is not speculation
     at all. I have the numbers somewhere, I have seen them. I can dig them
     up for you if needed. And yes, the Greek banks hold around 80 percent of
     government's external debt (check page 168 of the attached document).

     Hintz, Lisa wrote:

     Yes, but they wouldn't want to.  For them, they have plenty of liquidity
     because they are borrowing from the Fed for free.  In theory they could
     then buy Greek bonds and hold them for the spread, but now they would
     have big losses on them since the spread has widened.  But the real
     reason was that the "customer flow" business - using their balance sheet
     to facilitate buying and selling of securities and derivatives by their
     customers - has been a great business.  Also, issuing debt and equity,
     and to a lesser extent, M&amp;A business has been really good.

      

     But the Postbanks or BAWAGs or LBBWs of the world couldn't really get in
     that market.  They needed size to do that, and liquidity.  So what I was
     thinking was that with the small amount of liquidity they had (customer
     deposits, maturing loans, maturing securities) they might have bought
     higher yielding bonds for the spread rather than tying it up in more
     mortgages or other local projects.

      

     From a bank's perspective also, it makes sense to hold securities rather
     than loans.  Loans tie up more regulatory capital, and many of these
     banks were very capital constrained.  I think the people that were
     putting the Greek debt at the ECB were the Greek banks.  I think what
     was happening was that the government was issuing a lot of debt (to pay
     public sector workers and more generally to fund its deficit) and it was
     being bought by the Greek banks.  Then they were putting it with the ECB
     because they needed liquidity and it essentially gave the government
     "hard currency" which is to say Euro deposits with the banks.  I suspect
     that when they had those 1 year unlimited and other long term funding
     auctions by the ECB, the Greek banks took down a lot of them.  I also
     suspect that for the ones after the first one (which weren't one year),
     but also before the last one, they showed up in really disproportionate
     size (I don't know this, this is all speculation) and that is when the
     ECB said "enough").  It is also when the market got worried because the
     news got out that they were responsible for 9% of the funding from the
     ECB!  Somehow, the market didn't get worried enough because it took
     until the first of this year for things to start to really fall apart.

      

     Lisa Hintz
     Capital Markets Research Group
     Moody's Analytics
     212-553-7151 

     From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Friday, February 05, 2010 2:55 PM
     To: Hintz, Lisa
     Subject: Re:

      

     Plus, can JP Morgan purchase Greek government debt and use it as a
     collateral with the ECB?

     Hintz, Lisa wrote:

     Yes, although given how profitable the FICC and i-banking business has
     been this year, I think the big players have just stayed there.  I would
     think that someone like BNP or JP Morgan would find it too small and not
     worth it.

      

     Lisa Hintz
     Capital Markets Research Group
     Moody's Analytics
     212-553-7151 

     From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Friday, February 05, 2010 1:45 PM
     To: Hintz, Lisa
     Subject: Re:

      

     I was thinking of the same thing...

     I imagine it is all eurozone banks, since any eurozone bank can use them
     as collateral. Right?

     Hintz, Lisa wrote:

     It would be really interesting to know where beside the Greek banks the
     Greek bonds are held.  I have been suspicious that German and Austrian
     banks with their low profitability, (Deutsche would be an exception)
     might have been buying Greek, Irish, Spanish, Portuguese bonds as a
     carry trade hoping to earn their way out of their problems.  I have no
     way of knowing this, but if you  come across this, let me know.  Gillian
     Tett wrote a piece in the FT today where she did mention German
     insurance companies, and I think it is right, but the banks probably
     have them too.

      

     Lisa Hintz

     Capital Markets Research Group

     Moody's Analytics

     212-553-7151

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

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     thereto, is confidential and may not be disclosed without our express
     permission. If you are not the intended recipient or an employee or
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     you are hereby notified that you have received this message in error and
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     have no liability for any computer virus which may be transferred via
     this e-mail message.

 --

  

 Marko Papic

  

 STRATFOR

 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900

 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A

 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094

 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334

 marko.papic@stratfor.com

 www.stratfor.com

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     The information contained in this e-mail message, and any attachment
     thereto, is confidential and may not be disclosed without our express
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     you are hereby notified that you have received this message in error and
     that any review, dissemination, distribution or copying of this message,
     or any attachment thereto, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited.
     If you have received this message in error, please immediately notify us
     by telephone, fax or e-mail and delete the message and all of its
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     from viruses. You should, however, review this e-mail message, as well
     as any attachment thereto, for viruses. We take no responsibility and
     have no liability for any computer virus which may be transferred via
     this e-mail message.

 --

  

 Marko Papic

  

 STRATFOR

 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900

 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A

 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094

 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334

 marko.papic@stratfor.com

 www.stratfor.com

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     The information contained in this e-mail message, and any attachment
     thereto, is confidential and may not be disclosed without our express
     permission. If you are not the intended recipient or an employee or
     agent responsible for delivering this message to the intended recipient,
     you are hereby notified that you have received this message in error and
     that any review, dissemination, distribution or copying of this message,
     or any attachment thereto, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited.
     If you have received this message in error, please immediately notify us
     by telephone, fax or e-mail and delete the message and all of its
     attachments. Thank you. Every effort is made to keep our network free
     from viruses. You should, however, review this e-mail message, as well
     as any attachment thereto, for viruses. We take no responsibility and
     have no liability for any computer virus which may be transferred via
     this e-mail message.

 --

  

 Marko Papic

  

 STRATFOR

 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900

 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A

 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094

 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334

 marko.papic@stratfor.com

 www.stratfor.com

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     The information contained in this e-mail message, and any attachment
     thereto, is confidential and may not be disclosed without our express
     permission. If you are not the intended recipient or an employee or
     agent responsible for delivering this message to the intended recipient,
     you are hereby notified that you have received this message in error and
     that any review, dissemination, distribution or copying of this message,
     or any attachment thereto, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited.
     If you have received this message in error, please immediately notify us
     by telephone, fax or e-mail and delete the message and all of its
     attachments. Thank you. Every effort is made to keep our network free
     from viruses. You should, however, review this e-mail message, as well
     as any attachment thereto, for viruses. We take no responsibility and
     have no liability for any computer virus which may be transferred via
     this e-mail message.

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-02-05 22:23:49</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2001-03-13 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1708856_re-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Lisa.Hintz@moodys.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1709306</id>
    <title>Albania 
</title>
    <description>   From TrapWire in response to Marko's questions --
    

   Fred -- Just in. Haven't had time to give a good scrub/spell check etc. so
   might be a bit raw. (His English is excellent, but not perfect).  M

   ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
      

    

    

    

               1. Any thoughts on what repercussions unrest in Albania could
   have for the region as a whole?

    

               Instability in Albania generally means instability within the
   Albanian diaspora in the region.

    

   .         Kosova: Just came out of general elections and is now facing an
   internal crises . The winning party does not have enough votes to elect a
   PM or create a new government. At the same time, the leadership of the
   winning party has been accused for war crimes and trafficking in human
   organs by a Swiss reporter. These issues have endangered the current
   political process towards Kosovo independence. Negotiations with Serbia
   are now on hold. An unstable political situation in Albania will be a big
   loss for Kosovo. Kosovo has no representation in international
   institutions and Albania is her biggest supporter and ally regarding
   Kosovo foreign policy.  A crisis in Albania will make the dialogue between
   Kosovo and Serbia, which is seeking a division of northern Kosovo.

    

   .         Macedonia: Our neighboring country has a population of 30%
   Albanians, who have been in constant conflict with the Macedonian
   government regarding their rights as a minority. Macedonian-Albanians are
   divided in to two groups:  one that is more liberal and has assimilated
   into Macedonian society; and the other a much more radical group that is
   in conflict Macedonian policies. Add to this Macedonia's on-going conflict
   with Greece, and one could speculate that any major crisis in Albania will
   only compound the problems inside Macedonia -- particularly for those
   Albanians seeking greater rights inside Macedonia. There is a precedence
   for this problem during the 1997 conflict in Albania.

    

   .         Greece: Our only neighboring country with EU membership is still
   going through a very bad political and economic crises itself. There are
   almost 1.5 million Albanians living in Greece -- many are illegal
   immigrants working illegally. Another crises in Albania could likely fuel
   another mass exodus to Greece (and Italy) -- particularly now that
   Albanians can finally travel without visas in Europe.   

    

   2.  After 1997 anarchy, weapons flowed across the borders to Kosovo and
   Macedonia. Any chance that another crisis has an effect on neighboring
   countries?

    

               In my opinion, it is unlikely the current situation will
   deteriorate to the point of 1997, which was fueled by economic collapse
   rather than only political differences. Albanians still have strong
   memories and feelings about this period, and would likely try to avoid a
   repeat...particularly as the only groups who will profit from another
   crises would be the weapons, drugs, and fuel traffickers .

          

    

               3.  What is Berisha's role in neighboring Kosovo and
   Macedonia. Does he have influence with Kosovo leadership? Or Macedonian
   Albanian leadership?

    

               Generally speaking, Berisha does not have much of a role in
   the region. He continues to be viewed as a model of the old leadership.
   Clearly, Kosovo will always          need the support of the Albanian PM
   and his government; however, many Kosovars remember that Berisha gave only
   lukewarm support to the KLA, and was   believed to have profited
   personally by allowing fuel shipments into Serbia and Montenegro, despite
   the NATO embargo at the time. Berisha is still viewed as            
   having too close of ties to Serbia -- one of his closest contacts is Damir
   Fasllic, a character who is believed to have contacts at the highest
   levels of the Serbian           government. Berisha does not appear to
   have particularly strong ties to Macedonia and, with the loss of
   Jukanovic, probably has limited influence in Montenegro as          well

            

    

                4.  If there is a change in government to Edvin Rama, would
   it in any way change the situation in Albania or region?

    

               Edvin Rama is the leader of the Albanian opposition Socialist
   Party -- which represents about 50 % of the Albanian voters. Rama is known
   as a head-strong and       somewhat radical figure amongst the
   international community in Albania. He is not very good at dialoguing --
   often creating situations that neither side can win.           Despite
   these weaknesses, Rama represents the "modern" leader that many Albanians
   have been hoping for since 1990. His work in modernizing and cleaning-up
               the capital has made him very popular, and given him the image
   of someone who can get things done for the people (He has twice been
   re-elected as mayor).          Rama's popularity and modern thinking has
   been commented on favorably by many EU leaders and representatives.

    
</description>
    <date>2011-01-26 01:09:57</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1709306_albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1709321</id>
    <title>Re: Albania
</title>
    <description>   He was, until the anarchy.

   I have heard that he in fact profited immensely from the beginnings of KLA
   operations in Kosovo and that he aided them greatly. But that is not at
   all exclusive to this insight. That he then made his money smuggling
   gasoline to Serbia during embargo also makes sense.

   On 1/25/11 7:27 PM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     many Kosovars remember that Berisha gave only lukewarm support to the
     KLA, and was   believed to have profited personally by allowing fuel
     shipments into Serbia and Montenegro, despite the NATO embargo at the
     time.
     so i guess that means the weapons flow in 1997 was not b/c of anything
     Berisha did (err, wait, was he in power back then? my Albanian history
     is getting all jumbled)

     On 1/25/11 6:09 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

       From TrapWire in response to Marko's questions --
        

       Fred -- Just in. Haven't had time to give a good scrub/spell check
       etc. so might be a bit raw. (His English is excellent, but not
       perfect).  M

       ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
          

        

        

        

                   1. Any thoughts on what repercussions unrest in Albania
       could have for the region as a whole?

        

                   Instability in Albania generally means instability within
       the Albanian diaspora in the region.

        

       .         Kosova: Just came out of general elections and is now facing
       an internal crises . The winning party does not have enough votes to
       elect a PM or create a new government. At the same time, the
       leadership of the winning party has been accused for war crimes and
       trafficking in human organs by a Swiss reporter. These issues have
       endangered the current political process towards Kosovo independence.
       Negotiations with Serbia are now on hold. An unstable political
       situation in Albania will be a big loss for Kosovo. Kosovo has no
       representation in international institutions and Albania is her
       biggest supporter and ally regarding Kosovo foreign policy.  A crisis
       in Albania will make the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia, which is
       seeking a division of northern Kosovo.

        

       .         Macedonia: Our neighboring country has a population of 30%
       Albanians, who have been in constant conflict with the Macedonian
       government regarding their rights as a minority. Macedonian-Albanians
       are divided in to two groups:  one that is more liberal and has
       assimilated into Macedonian society; and the other a much more radical
       group that is in conflict Macedonian policies. Add to this Macedonia's
       on-going conflict with Greece, and one could speculate that any major
       crisis in Albania will only compound the problems inside Macedonia --
       particularly for those Albanians seeking greater rights inside
       Macedonia. There is a precedence for this problem during the 1997
       conflict in Albania.

        

       .         Greece: Our only neighboring country with EU membership is
       still going through a very bad political and economic crises itself.
       There are almost 1.5 million Albanians living in Greece -- many are
       illegal immigrants working illegally. Another crises in Albania could
       likely fuel another mass exodus to Greece (and Italy) -- particularly
       now that Albanians can finally travel without visas in Europe.   

        

       2.  After 1997 anarchy, weapons flowed across the borders to Kosovo
       and Macedonia. Any chance that another crisis has an effect on
       neighboring countries?

        

                   In my opinion, it is unlikely the current situation will
       deteriorate to the point of 1997, which was fueled by economic
       collapse rather than only political differences. Albanians still have
       strong memories and feelings about this period, and would likely try
       to avoid a repeat...particularly as the only groups who will profit
       from another crises would be the weapons, drugs, and fuel traffickers
       .

              

        

                   3.  What is Berisha's role in neighboring Kosovo and
       Macedonia. Does he have influence with Kosovo leadership? Or
       Macedonian Albanian leadership?

        

                   Generally speaking, Berisha does not have much of a role
       in the region. He continues to be viewed as a model of the old
       leadership. Clearly, Kosovo will always          need the support of
       the Albanian PM and his government; however, many Kosovars remember
       that Berisha gave only lukewarm support to the KLA, and was   believed
       to have profited personally by allowing fuel shipments into Serbia and
       Montenegro, despite the NATO embargo at the time. Berisha is still
       viewed as             having too close of ties to Serbia -- one of his
       closest contacts is Damir Fasllic, a character who is believed to have
       contacts at the highest levels of the Serbian           government.
       Berisha does not appear to have particularly strong ties to Macedonia
       and, with the loss of Jukanovic, probably has limited influence in
       Montenegro as          well

                

        

                    4.  If there is a change in government to Edvin Rama,
       would it in any way change the situation in Albania or region?

        

                   Edvin Rama is the leader of the Albanian opposition
       Socialist Party -- which represents about 50 % of the Albanian voters.
       Rama is known as a head-strong and       somewhat radical figure
       amongst the international community in Albania. He is not very good at
       dialoguing -- often creating situations that neither side can win.
                 Despite these weaknesses, Rama represents the "modern"
       leader that many Albanians have been hoping for since 1990. His work
       in modernizing and cleaning-up             the capital has made him
       very popular, and given him the image of someone who can get things
       done for the people (He has twice been re-elected as mayor).         
       Rama's popularity and modern thinking has been commented on favorably
       by many EU leaders and representatives.

        

 --
 Marko Papic
 Analyst - Europe
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
</description>
    <date>2011-01-26 02:40:42</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1709321_re-albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bayless.parsley@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1709962</id>
    <title>Re: Albania
</title>
    <description>   Ensuring adherence to rules of engagement (assuming there has even been
   stern, clear guidance given) in riot control scenarios can itself be
   difficult. Combine that with police who may not be well schooled in it and
   do not have a whole lot of non-lethal options besides a club, and you've
   got a recipe for people getting shot.

   That said, agree that the significance is the political and the popular
   perception of what happened.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Alex Hayward &lt;alex.hayward@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2011 11:44:15 -0600 (CST)
   To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Albania
   According to the AP, "The Prosecutor General's office said arrest warrants
   had been issued for six officers of the National Guard, army troops under
   Interior Ministry command who guard government institutions and senior
   officials."

   On 1/22/11 9:42 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     Is there a chance The cops were not actually the ones who killed the
     three? I didnt see any reports or photos indicating the riot police even
     had guns. And the type of pistol used to fire the rounds was listed in
     an article yesterday. I know nothing about guns so am of no use here,
     but would it be helpful to know The kind of firearm used?

     Either way, doesnt matter. All that matters is the political angle and
     the fact that the opposition perceives the police to be culpable

     Btw artillery?!

     On 2011 Jan 22, at 08:51, Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

         From TrapWire contact (former CIA clandestine officer)

       Not sure if STRATFOR's following events there -- but I chatted with
       some
       contacts in Tirana and tomorrow (Sunday) protests are expected to be
       even larger than yesterday's -- with many in the crowd bent on
       retaliation for the police killing of three protestors. (As always,
       rumor mills are in overdrive in the Balkans with claims being made
       that
       the cops targeted these protestors for assassination. No proof yet
       that
       that's the case. Having dealt with Albanian cops for three years, I
       can
       assure you though they don't need much pushing to draw their weapons.
       They actually fired artillery rounds onto protestors during the chaos
       of
       '97). Tough times in Tirana right now.

       Mike

 --
 Alex Hayward
 STRATFOR Research Intern
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 18:50:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1709962_re-albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>nathan.hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1709981</id>
    <title>Re: Tirana update
</title>
    <description>   It would be to crack down on protesters, yes. 
   And I disagree. From Tiranas perspective it is better to crack down early
   and hard. 

   On Jan 22, 2011, at 3:24 PM, Bayless Parsley
   &lt;bayless.parsley@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

          Rumors continue to spread within the population that agents of the
     State Intelligence Service (SHISH) had infiltrated the crowds and
     provoked yesterday's violence. (Comment: No proof of this, but would not
     be the first time SHISH was used in this capacity).
     Would SHISH be trying to instigate violence so as to justify a govt
     crackdown on socialists? Seems like that is an unnecessary risk... No
     one wants civil war when youre The one actually in power already.
      
     On 2011 Jan 22, at 13:36, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

       From TrapWire --
       Just in from a contact (Former senior law enforcement officer with
       direct access to Opposition party members).
        
       Tirana : 22 Jan 2011 (Situation at 1930 local)
        
       a**         Situation today calm, as Govt declared day of mourning for
       the "martyrs" (Berisha's words).
       a**         The Opposition has been hold-up all day today in Mayor Edi
       Rama's office discussing next steps. There is some reluctance on their
       part as to whether tomorrow's protest should proceed as planned. They
       have apparently received word that many protesters intend to come
       armed to protect themselves against the police.  Rama has commented
       privately he may lead the protest to try and keep them peaceful.
       a**         Despite this, the Opposition continues to insist they will
       not stop actions against the current regime until Berisha resigns. In
       response, Berisha has declared that "anyone touching an official
       government building will meet the same fate as the protestors
       yesterday."
       a**         Rumblings have started in other major cities throughout
       Albania re. sympathetic protests. Most notably Shkoder, Durres and
       Gjirokaster.
       a**         There are reports of a handful of arrests of senior police
       officials following yesterday's incident. Investigation is now
       underway as to who gave the order to fire upon the crowds.
       a**         Rumors continue to spread within the population that
       agents of the State Intelligence Service (SHISH) had infiltrated the
       crowds and provoked yesterday's violence. (Comment: No proof of this,
       but would not be the first time SHISH was used in this capacity).
       a**         Note: Great deal of fear and apprehension amongst the
       populace, particularly in Tirana. Most still have vivid memories of
       '90 and '97. Average Albanian is still well armed following the
       ransacking of weapons depots in '97 and an escalation in violence is
       not unthinkable.
        
       Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 22:36:48</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1709981_re-tirana-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1710497</id>
    <title>Re: [Eurasia] [OS] G3 - FRANCE/SWEDEN/TURKEY/EU - Sarkozy cancels
 Sweden visit over	Turkey
</title>
    <description>   This is definitely about attention grabbing... Sarko is so predictable.
   This is awesome!!

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Eugene Chausovsky" &lt;eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "EurAsia AOR" &lt;eurasia@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Friday, May 29, 2009 8:50:33 AM GMT -05:00 Colombia
   Subject: Re: [Eurasia] [OS] G3 - FRANCE/SWEDEN/TURKEY/EU - Sarkozy cancels
   Sweden visit over        Turkey

   Looks like Sarko is already trying to grab the limelight again before
   Sweden takes over...any significant implications of a Sweden-France clash
   over Turkey for the rest of the EU, energy deals, etc?

   Chris Farnham wrote:

     Sarkozy cancels Sweden visit over Turkey
     http://euobserver.com/9/28208
     ELITSA VUCHEVA

     Today @ 09:12 CET

     French President Nicolas Sarkozy has cancelled a visit to Sweden
     scheduled for next Tuesday (2 June) in order to avoid a clash on the
     question of Turkey's EU membership just days before the European
     elections and a month before Stockholm takes over the EU's rotating
     presidency.

     Officially, Mr Sarkozy's office said the trip was cancelled "for agenda
     reasons."

     "We should avoid halting EU enlargement," said Swedish foreign minister
     Carl Bildt

     But the French president, who is an outspoken opponent of Turkey's entry
     to the European Union, did not want to highlight the strong divergence
     of views on this topic with Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt, Le
     Monde reported on Thursday (28 May).

     Sweden favours further EU enlargement, including to Turkey. On Monday
     this week, Swedish foreign minister Carl Bildt told Le Figaro newspaper
     that the EU had "a strategic interest" in Turkey's EU integration and
     warned against "closing the door" to Ankara.

     "If we judge Cyprus to be in Europe, although it is as in island along
     Syria's shores, it is hard not to consider that Turkey is in Europe," Mr
     Bildt said, referring to Mr Sarkozy's repeated statements that Turkey is
     not a European country and does not belong to Europe.

     Additionally, Mr Sarkozy probably did not appreciate that Mr Bildt
     expressed views different from his on the economy, French newspapers
     comment.

     In the Figaro interview, Mr Bildt said: "My vision of Europe is not as
     defensive as I observe it with other people."

     In a reference to aid plans for the car industry - very much promoted by
     Mr Sarkozy - the Swedish top diplomat said that for him, "spending
     taxpayers' money to subsidise existing structures is a very good way of
     wasting money."

     The French president's trip to Sweden was cancelled the day after the
     interview was published.

     "Nicolas Sarkozy cancelled his visit because of the Carl Bildt
     interview," one minister told Le Monde.
     "The president wanted to avoid a clash on Turkey and did not want that
     his visit to Sweden interferes with the elections [five days later].
     There are [also] too many dossiers that are too important to prepare
     with the Swedish EU presidency to spoil that visit," another official
     told the paper.
     The upcoming Swedish EU presidency is the real reason behind the
     cancellation, rather than the context of the European elections,
     according to Le Figaro journalist Pierre Rousseiln.

     "Nicolas Sarkozy does not fear confrontation," he wrote in his blog,
     adding that defending his position in Sweden could even have been
     beneficial for Mr Sarkozy ahead of next Sunday's vote.

     If he refused to go to Stockholm, he did it to avoid a clash just a
     month before the Swedish EU presidency starts and it is a sign that Mr
     Sarkozy is expecting a number of difficulties during Sweden's six-month
     term at the head of the bloc, Mr Rousselin wrote.

     The French president's office is currently working on rescheduling the
     visit for another date before the end of June.

     --

     Chris Farnham
     Beijing Correspondent , STRATFOR
     China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
     Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Eugene Chausovsky
 STRATFOR
 C: 512-914-7896
 eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1710497_re-eurasia-os-g3-france-sweden-turkey-eu-sarkozy-cancels.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1710836</id>
    <title>Re: Albania Update
</title>
    <description>   Yes, please rep. If we are allowed.

   Don't source. Just say STRATFOR source in country.

   On 1/27/11 11:46 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     reliable enough info to rep?

     On 1/27/11 11:42 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

 &gt;From TrapWire (protect source):

 The protest of the opposition will be held tomorrow at 14.00. It will be
 only in Tirana,

 

 

 


 --
 Marko Papic
 Analyst - Europe
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
</description>
    <date>2011-01-27 18:49:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1710836_re-albania-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bayless.parsley@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1711521</id>
    <title>Re: AW: AW: Question about German Policy Towards Iran
</title>
    <description>   Dear Dr. Thranert,

   Thank you very much for your prompt reply. I just have one follow up
   question on your second point, that this is much more a conflict between
   the Chancellery, Foreign Office and the Ministry of Economics. Where would
   you say the Foreign Office stands on the issue of firm sanctions? With the
   Chancellery or with the Ministry of Economics.

   Thank you again for your time.

   Cheers,

   Marko

   Thraenert, Oliver wrote:

     Dear Mr. Papic,

      

     in fact the Iranian nuclear program is part my of research for several
     years now.

      

     As to your questions:

      

      1. Germany is prepared for tougher sanctions but would clearly prefer
         those based on an additional UNSCR. German industry is not keen to
         participate in sanctions which result in Russian or Chinese
         companies filling the gap in Iran.
      2. As far as I can see, the struggle about sanctions is not so much
         between CDU and FDP but between the Chancellery, the Foreign Office
         and the Ministry of Economics.
      3. I can not see a shift. Germany would have preferred a solution on
         the basis of the TRR proposal. Now that Iran did reject that, more
         sanctions are inevitable.

      

     I hope these quick answers are helpful to you.

      

     Kind regards

     Oliver Thra:nert

      

     Schriftzug Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik

      

     Dr. Oliver Thra:nert

     Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik

     Senior Fellow

     Forschungsgruppe Sicherheitspolitik

     Ludwigkirchplatz 3-4

     10719 Berlin

     Telefon: +49 30 88 007 - 233

     Fax: +49 30 88 007 - 5233

     Mail: oliver.thraenert@swp-berlin.org

      

     -----Urspru:ngliche Nachricht-----
     Von: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
     Gesendet: Donnerstag, 28. Januar 2010 19:01
     An: Thraenert, Oliver
     Betreff: Re: AW: Question about German Policy Towards Iran

      

     Dear Dr. Thra:nert,

     I was referred to you by your colleague Dr. Kaim, who is a friend of my
     former professor Dr. Stefan Gaenzle. I am an analyst with STRATFOR, U.S.
     intelligence-based media company (www.stratfor.com) and I have a few
     questions in regards to the German-Iranian relations.

     I hope that I would not be bothering you if I asked few questions. I am
     interested particularly in the apparent shift in tone of Chancellor
     Merkel two days ago, when she said that Iran's "time is up". This was,
     as you know, subsequently followed by Tehran's announcement that two
     German diplomats were arrested during the December Ashura protests. My
     questions, in no particular order are:

     -- Is there in fact a shift in German policy towards sanctions, or was
     the more strict tone more reflective of the pressure from the visiting
     Israeli delegation?
     -- Are CDU and FDP on the same page when it comes to Iranian sanctions?
     -- If there is a shift in Germany's stance on the sanctions, how would
     you characterize the reasons for it?

     All of these questions are completely off the record. We write our
     analyses as intelligence briefs and never cite sources, although in this
     case I really just need some background information on this issue. If
     you would prefer that we speak on the phone, I am available that way as
     well. I greatly appreciate any time you spare and hope I can return the
     favor if you ever need help with research or commentary.

     All the best,

     Marko

 --

  

 Marko Papic

  

 STRATFOR

 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900

 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A

 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094

 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334

 marko.papic@stratfor.com

 www.stratfor.com

     Kaim, Markus wrote:

 Dear Mr. Papic,

  

 thank you for your kind mail. Unfortunately I am not an expert on the German Iran policy. I suggest, that you get in touch with my SWP colleague Oliver Thra:nert, who works on the Iranian nuclear program and the Western responses.

  

 Best regards,

  

 Markus Kaim

  

 PD Dr. habil. Markus Kaim

 Leiter Forschungsgruppe Sicherheitspolitik

 Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik

 Ludwigkirchplatz 3-4

 D-10719 Berlin

 Tel.: (49)-(0)30-88007-294

 FAX: (49)-(0)30-88007-5294

 eMail: markus.kaim@swp-berlin.org

  

 Neu erschienen: "Pra:sident Obama und die transatlantischen Sicherheitsbeziehungen": http://www.bpb.de/files/NHT6R8.pdf

  

  

 -----Urspru:ngliche Nachricht-----

 Von: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]

 Gesendet: Donnerstag, 28. Januar 2010 16:22

 An: Kaim, Markus

 Betreff: Question about German Policy Towards Iran

  

 Dear Dr. Kaim,

  

 I am an analyst with STRATFOR, U.S. intelligence-based media company

 (www.stratfor.com). I am also a friend and former student of Dr. Stefan

 Gaenzle who was my professor at the Institute for European Studies at

 the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, Canada. I emailed

 Stefan asking him if he could point me to someone who followed German

 foreign politics closely and who could help me answer a few questions

 about Germany's policy towards Iran.

  

 I hope that I would not be bothering you if I did in fact ask a few

 questions. I am interested particularly in the apparent shift in tone of

 Chancellor Merkel two days ago, when she said that Iran's "time is up".

 This was, as you know, subsequently followed by Tehran's announcement

 that two German diplomats were arrested during the December Ashura

 protests. My questions, in no particular order are:

  

 -- Is there in fact a shift in German policy towards sanctions, or was

 the more strict tone more reflective of the pressure from the visiting

 Israeli delegation?

 -- Are CDU and FDP on the same page when it comes to Iranian sanctions?

 -- If there is a shift in Germany's stance on the sanctions, how would

 you characterize the reasons for it?

  

 All of these questions are completely off the record. We write our

 analyses as intelligence briefs and never cite sources, although in this

 case I really just need some background information on this issue.

  

 Stefan sends his best regards and I thank you in advance for any time

 you may find to spare.

  

 All the best,

  

 Marko

  

  

  

      

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-01-29 15:59:29</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-20 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1711521_re-aw-aw-question-about-german-policy-towards-iran-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Oliver.Thraenert@swp-berlin.org</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Markus.Kaim@swp-berlin.org</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/126/126183_image001.gif</path><size>3615</size><md5></md5><sha1>04cd391e57ef8dcdf284981e9c570e40b13622d3</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1713359</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA: CANVAS analysis
</title>
    <description>   They were training some Iranian women activists (ostensibly for women
   rights) in Azerbaijan. And teaching them about taking on the gov't.

   They communicate with me, when discussing Venezuela, through secure
   channels.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, February 2, 2010 5:35:03 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA: CANVAS analysis

   What are their tentacles?  I would hope they are practicing disciplined
   commo? 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Tuesday, February 02, 2010 5:28 PM
   To: Fred Burton
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA: CANVAS analysis
   They (or rather their tentacles) are already there.

   They have been giving us some info on it, but nothing really substantial
   because their presence there is weak.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, February 2, 2010 5:25:34 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA: CANVAS analysis

   Send them into Iran. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Tuesday, February 02, 2010 5:22 PM
   To: Fred Burton
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA: CANVAS analysis
   Thank you. They are very impressive group of guys. They just go and set up
   shop in a country and try to bring the government down. When used
   properly, more powerful than an aircraft carrier battle group.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, February 2, 2010 5:19:34 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA: CANVAS analysis

   Very good work

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Tuesday, February 02, 2010 5:15 PM
   To: Fred Burton
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA: CANVAS analysis
   CANVAS is basically the same as OTPOR.

   OTPOR (means resistance) were a group of students from Belgrade who took
   down Milosevic. They were tangentially connected to U.S funding sources
   like NED, Freedom House and the Albert Einstein Institute and, through
   them, the U.S. Agency for International Development and the U.S.
   Department of State. BUT, the US funding sources more lached on to them
   after realizing their potency than other way around.

   After they toppled Milosevic, the kids who ran OTPOR grew up, got suits
   and designed CANVAS - Center for Applied Non-Violent Action and
   Strategies... or in other words a "export-a-revolution" group that sowed
   the seeds for a NUMBER of color revolutions. (they even have a website:
   http://www.canvasopedia.org/) They are still hooked into U.S. funding and
   basically go around the world trying to topple dictators and autocratic
   governments (ones that U.S. does not like ;)

   I hooked into them in late 2007 and they have been feeding us intel on
   Venezuela, Georgia, Serbia, etc. Meredith expressed interest and so I
   arranged a meeting between CANVAS main guy (Srdjan Popovic) and
   George/Meredith in Denver around spring 2008. The meeting went well,
   George invited them to come talk to the analysts on how they run
   revolutions. They have accepted and I am gaming out when to bring them
   over here to Austin.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;, "Marko Papic"
   &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "Secure List" &lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, February 2, 2010 2:56:39 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA: CANVAS analysis

   What is CANVAS? 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Tuesday, February 02, 2010 2:38 PM
   To: Marko Papic
   Cc: Secure List
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA: CANVAS analysis
   sounds a lot like these opposition leaders are getting paid off/threatened
   sufficiently not to join
   On Feb 2, 2010, at 2:24 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

     SOURCE CODE: SR501

     PUBLICATION: NO

     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: CANVAS leader

     ATTRIBUTION: Not yet, not unless they let us publish

     SOURCE RELIABILITY: A

     ITEM CREDIBILITY: 5

     SPECIAL HANDLING:

     DISTRIBUTION: Secure

     SOURCE HANDLER: Marko

     According to CANVAS itself, they believe the protests have come too
     early. They are analogous to the ban against media and therefore follow
     the CANVAS manual on regime change when it says that "you need to make
     your opponent aware that there will be a price tag attached to his
     oppressive behavior." How effective the move is, we will soon know.

     From the point of view of OTPOR, if the students want to grab the notion
     that they are the number one enemy of Chavez, as Otpor did with
     Milosevic, they are doing a good job at it. Next step is to start
     putting pressure on the oppositio not to fracture (during anti-Slobo
     protests the chant was "Traitors are Pussies", referring to opposition
     working with government). Church and students are currently polled in
     Venezuela as more reliable and popular than the opposition parties...
     again very similar to what happened in Serbia. Next step is to gather at
     a place together with the opposition leaders... at a funeral, at a
     meeting, anything. That is key next step. Getting the opposition to come
     to a STUDENT gathering.

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-06-18 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1713359_re-insight-venezuela-canvas-analysis-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1714389</id>
    <title>Russian energy interests in the Balkans
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-01-31 22:30:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1714389_russian-energy-interests-in-the-balkans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.primorac@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/126/126434_Russian Energy Investments in Balkans.docx</path><size>69412</size><md5></md5><sha1>b7dbed5951c09028246e0977aca0b3c4fe23ebba</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1714601</id>
    <title>Re: 
</title>
    <description>   Its my quote!

   Oh I believed it! We knew about that too, for some time. "Lied" is not how
   they used to describe the situation pre-crisis. It was about "capacity
   building" in Athens... to help them get their "standards up". Ha! What a
   joke!

   Have a GREAT weekend! I may have to work if I hear rumors that there is a
   "Lehman moment" coming up on Monday. :)

   thanks for all your help,

   Marko

   Hintz, Lisa wrote:

     Was that quote yours, or did someone really say that?  It is so true.  I
     couldn't believe it when it turned out they had lied about their stats!

      

     Lisa Hintz
     Capital Markets Research Group
     Moody's Analytics
     212-553-7151 

     From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Friday, February 05, 2010 4:24 PM
     To: Hintz, Lisa
     Subject: Re:

      

     Sorry! page 168 of the PDF ITSELF, not of the actual printed document.
     And I was wrong... the debt is like 99% domestically held. Which oh by
     the way makes letting Greece implode SO much easier.

     "You lie to us about stats... you can't get your spending in order...
     AND you owe yourself?! Why are we thinking of bailing you out again?!"

     Hintz, Lisa wrote:

     I couldn't find it, but that is fine.  I believe you, and if I need
     them, I will have you dig them up!  If they hold that much debt, they
     will have to mark it to market in March which will be a HUGE hit to
     their capital base.  They were all recapitalized this past summer (by
     the government) but, depending on how much each one holds relative to
     their capital base, some could literally be insolvent.

      

     Lisa Hintz
     Capital Markets Research Group
     Moody's Analytics
     212-553-7151 

     From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Friday, February 05, 2010 3:32 PM
     To: Hintz, Lisa
     Subject: Re:

      

     You are definitely right. Greek banks took disproportionate percent
     (relative to their economy compared to overall eurozone economy) of
     those 1 year unlimited fund auctions by the ECB. This is not speculation
     at all. I have the numbers somewhere, I have seen them. I can dig them
     up for you if needed. And yes, the Greek banks hold around 80 percent of
     government's external debt (check page 168 of the attached document).

     Hintz, Lisa wrote:

     Yes, but they wouldn't want to.  For them, they have plenty of liquidity
     because they are borrowing from the Fed for free.  In theory they could
     then buy Greek bonds and hold them for the spread, but now they would
     have big losses on them since the spread has widened.  But the real
     reason was that the "customer flow" business - using their balance sheet
     to facilitate buying and selling of securities and derivatives by their
     customers - has been a great business.  Also, issuing debt and equity,
     and to a lesser extent, M&amp;A business has been really good.

      

     But the Postbanks or BAWAGs or LBBWs of the world couldn't really get in
     that market.  They needed size to do that, and liquidity.  So what I was
     thinking was that with the small amount of liquidity they had (customer
     deposits, maturing loans, maturing securities) they might have bought
     higher yielding bonds for the spread rather than tying it up in more
     mortgages or other local projects.

      

     From a bank's perspective also, it makes sense to hold securities rather
     than loans.  Loans tie up more regulatory capital, and many of these
     banks were very capital constrained.  I think the people that were
     putting the Greek debt at the ECB were the Greek banks.  I think what
     was happening was that the government was issuing a lot of debt (to pay
     public sector workers and more generally to fund its deficit) and it was
     being bought by the Greek banks.  Then they were putting it with the ECB
     because they needed liquidity and it essentially gave the government
     "hard currency" which is to say Euro deposits with the banks.  I suspect
     that when they had those 1 year unlimited and other long term funding
     auctions by the ECB, the Greek banks took down a lot of them.  I also
     suspect that for the ones after the first one (which weren't one year),
     but also before the last one, they showed up in really disproportionate
     size (I don't know this, this is all speculation) and that is when the
     ECB said "enough").  It is also when the market got worried because the
     news got out that they were responsible for 9% of the funding from the
     ECB!  Somehow, the market didn't get worried enough because it took
     until the first of this year for things to start to really fall apart.

      

     Lisa Hintz
     Capital Markets Research Group
     Moody's Analytics
     212-553-7151 

     From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Friday, February 05, 2010 2:55 PM
     To: Hintz, Lisa
     Subject: Re:

      

     Plus, can JP Morgan purchase Greek government debt and use it as a
     collateral with the ECB?

     Hintz, Lisa wrote:

     Yes, although given how profitable the FICC and i-banking business has
     been this year, I think the big players have just stayed there.  I would
     think that someone like BNP or JP Morgan would find it too small and not
     worth it.

      

     Lisa Hintz
     Capital Markets Research Group
     Moody's Analytics
     212-553-7151 

     From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Friday, February 05, 2010 1:45 PM
     To: Hintz, Lisa
     Subject: Re:

      

     I was thinking of the same thing...

     I imagine it is all eurozone banks, since any eurozone bank can use them
     as collateral. Right?

     Hintz, Lisa wrote:

     It would be really interesting to know where beside the Greek banks the
     Greek bonds are held.  I have been suspicious that German and Austrian
     banks with their low profitability, (Deutsche would be an exception)
     might have been buying Greek, Irish, Spanish, Portuguese bonds as a
     carry trade hoping to earn their way out of their problems.  I have no
     way of knowing this, but if you  come across this, let me know.  Gillian
     Tett wrote a piece in the FT today where she did mention German
     insurance companies, and I think it is right, but the banks probably
     have them too.

      

     Lisa Hintz

     Capital Markets Research Group

     Moody's Analytics

     212-553-7151

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     The information contained in this e-mail message, and any attachment
     thereto, is confidential and may not be disclosed without our express
     permission. If you are not the intended recipient or an employee or
     agent responsible for delivering this message to the intended recipient,
     you are hereby notified that you have received this message in error and
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     have no liability for any computer virus which may be transferred via
     this e-mail message.

 --

  

 Marko Papic

  

 STRATFOR

 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900

 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A

 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094

 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334

 marko.papic@stratfor.com

 www.stratfor.com

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     The information contained in this e-mail message, and any attachment
     thereto, is confidential and may not be disclosed without our express
     permission. If you are not the intended recipient or an employee or
     agent responsible for delivering this message to the intended recipient,
     you are hereby notified that you have received this message in error and
     that any review, dissemination, distribution or copying of this message,
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     If you have received this message in error, please immediately notify us
     by telephone, fax or e-mail and delete the message and all of its
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     from viruses. You should, however, review this e-mail message, as well
     as any attachment thereto, for viruses. We take no responsibility and
     have no liability for any computer virus which may be transferred via
     this e-mail message.

 --

  

 Marko Papic

  

 STRATFOR

 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900

 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A

 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094

 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334

 marko.papic@stratfor.com

 www.stratfor.com

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     The information contained in this e-mail message, and any attachment
     thereto, is confidential and may not be disclosed without our express
     permission. If you are not the intended recipient or an employee or
     agent responsible for delivering this message to the intended recipient,
     you are hereby notified that you have received this message in error and
     that any review, dissemination, distribution or copying of this message,
     or any attachment thereto, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited.
     If you have received this message in error, please immediately notify us
     by telephone, fax or e-mail and delete the message and all of its
     attachments. Thank you. Every effort is made to keep our network free
     from viruses. You should, however, review this e-mail message, as well
     as any attachment thereto, for viruses. We take no responsibility and
     have no liability for any computer virus which may be transferred via
     this e-mail message.

 --

  

 Marko Papic

  

 STRATFOR

 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900

 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A

 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094

 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334

 marko.papic@stratfor.com

 www.stratfor.com

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     The information contained in this e-mail message, and any attachment
     thereto, is confidential and may not be disclosed without our express
     permission. If you are not the intended recipient or an employee or
     agent responsible for delivering this message to the intended recipient,
     you are hereby notified that you have received this message in error and
     that any review, dissemination, distribution or copying of this message,
     or any attachment thereto, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited.
     If you have received this message in error, please immediately notify us
     by telephone, fax or e-mail and delete the message and all of its
     attachments. Thank you. Every effort is made to keep our network free
     from viruses. You should, however, review this e-mail message, as well
     as any attachment thereto, for viruses. We take no responsibility and
     have no liability for any computer virus which may be transferred via
     this e-mail message.

 --

  

 Marko Papic

  

 STRATFOR

 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900

 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A

 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094

 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334

 marko.papic@stratfor.com

 www.stratfor.com

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     The information contained in this e-mail message, and any attachment
     thereto, is confidential and may not be disclosed without our express
     permission. If you are not the intended recipient or an employee or
     agent responsible for delivering this message to the intended recipient,
     you are hereby notified that you have received this message in error and
     that any review, dissemination, distribution or copying of this message,
     or any attachment thereto, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited.
     If you have received this message in error, please immediately notify us
     by telephone, fax or e-mail and delete the message and all of its
     attachments. Thank you. Every effort is made to keep our network free
     from viruses. You should, however, review this e-mail message, as well
     as any attachment thereto, for viruses. We take no responsibility and
     have no liability for any computer virus which may be transferred via
     this e-mail message.

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-02-05 22:44:29</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2001-03-13 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1714601_re-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Lisa.Hintz@moodys.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1715876</id>
    <title>RE: PROPOSAL- Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks Survival
</title>
    <description>   Let's do it.

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Sean Noonan
   Sent: Tuesday, December 07, 2010 8:49 AM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: PROPOSAL- Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks Survival

    

   Title: Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks Survival

   Type: 3- When I woke up at 5, there was no one saying anything on this.  I
   haven't checked but I'm guessing we are still way ahead of in providing
   analysis of what Assange's arrest will do to him/the organization

   Thesis: Assange was arrested in Britain December 7.  WikiLeaks is a new
   organization with one leader that has not institutionalized.  Assange's
   arest will test its ability to maintain itself as an institution--but that
   won't stop the current set of documents. 

   600 words

   Current Discussion:

    

   London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and public
   spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7.  He is due to appear in a
   court in Westminster soon to face charges of rape, accused by two woman in
   Sweden.  Charges of sexual assault rarely are passed through Interpol red
   notices, like this case, so this is no doubt about trying to disrupt
   WikiLeaks release of government documents.  While it's possible that
   Assange's arrest could disrupt the long-term viability of WikiLeaks, it
   will not stop the release of cables in the short-term and governments will
   now be concerned about what the organization may release in revenge.

    

   Leadership is extremely important in non-governmental organizations that
   have not institutionalized.  From terrorist grous  to charities [LINK:
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090923_death_top_indonesian_militant],
   these organizations often ebb and flow along with their founders. 
   WikiLeaks is a new organization that has a created a novel method for an
   old practice- leaking confidential government information in an attempt to
   influence politics.  Leaking will not go away with Assange's arrest, but
   WikiLeaks might.

    

   WikiLeaks created itself with Assange as the only public face-- he leads
   supports, drives donations, and faces criticism.  This has made many in
   the organization unhappy, and some have left it after disagreeing with
   him.  If Assange were to face charges in Sweden for sexual assault or new
   charges in the UK or US and was found guilty, WikiLeaks would still need
   someone to operate it.  Assange may have someone waiting in the wings, but
   that is not evident.

    

   WikiLeaks has also suffered logistically and as a brand.  As national
   governments put pressure on its infrastructure, its websites have been
   shut and most importantly its main source of funding- PayPal- has closed
   WikiLeaks account.  With such pressure and government monitoring, future
   leakers may be too afraid of getting intercepted and go elsewhere. 
   Moreover, this new set of documents have not worked out like Assange
   expected- the public is not angry at the State Department, but many are
   angry at Assange and his organization.

    

   Assange's arrest won't stop the continued leaks of this large batch of US
   State Department cables.  It also won't shut down WikiLeaks, which still
   maintains its website and the ability to collect information from
   leakers.  So in the short-term, WikiLeaks will maintain.  The question
   remains if it has created a truly sustainable institutions-- one where
   leaders are replacable, members can adapt to changing circumstance, and
   representatives can aid and inspire new leakers.

    

   If Asange is extradited to Sweden and tried of one count of unlawful
   coercion, two counts of sexual molestation and one count of rape, will he
   be able to maintain WikiLeaks image?  That is hard to say, but growing
   public criticism of him indicates his inability to grow WikiLeaks support
   base.  Western govrenments also fear whatever is contained in his ___
   file, for which he threatens to release an encryption key if something
   happens to him.  WikiLeaks has already released its most damaging
   documents-- its attempt to get public attention-- and they haven't
   amounted to much.  This new file likely contains no more damaging
   information, but instead is full of names.  The names of sources who will
   be at risk and those of diplomats, military or intelligence officers who
   could lose their jobs.

    

   WikiLeaks is now facing a conundrum that all new organizations do--the
   ability to maintain and transition leadership through adverse
   circumstances.  Maybe Assange will be released quickly-- STRATFOR cannot
   speak to the veracity of the charges against him-- but if he isn't,
   WikiLeaks will struggle to survive.

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-07 14:54:51</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1715876_re-proposal-assange-arrest-and-wikileaks-survival-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1717183</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - BULGARIA/RUSSIA - relations &amp; energy
</title>
    <description>   CODE: RU106
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Gazprom
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Head of Gazprom (dis)Information
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: C
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts, briefers
   HANDLER: Lauren

   Bulgaria is Russia's Trojan Horse in the EU. The relationship between
   Russia and Bulgaria may be occasionally cold, but they will always be
   Slavic brothers at the end of the day.
    
   There are two reasons for the recent cooling of relations was that
   Bulgaria.
   1)        First is that Bulgaria was the worst hit country during the 2009
   natural gas cut off.
   2)      Second is the change in government. Stanishev had been a good
   little brother, since he is from Ukraine and spoke perfect Russian.
   Borisov is not as interested in Russia as a big brother.
    
   This has affected relations in 3 areas:
   1)        first, Bulgaria is pulling out of the Orthodox Pipeline (We're
   calling Bourgas-Alexandroupolis the "Orthodox Pipeline" now. Since it
   involves so many Slavic Orthodox countries.)
   2)      second, Bulgaria is not continuing the Belene project. This is not
   so much about the cooling of relations as financial reasons on the
   Bulgarian side. The Germans were suppose to pay for the plant, but
   withdrew and since then Sofia cannot find the funds for the plant. Moscow
   has offered to pay for Sofia's portion, but the Bulgarians do not want it
   to be Russian-owned.
   3)       Lastly is South Stream. This last issue is the one that is very
   interesting. First Bulgaria said that the terms for South Stream were
   unacceptable. But it has now changed its mind for 3 reasons.
         a.       Sofia's attention to South Stream snapped back when Russia
   turned to Romania instead. Russia has other options.
         b.      Bulgaria does not want to burn every bridge with its former
   brother. This is one that is best out of the three projects in their eyes.
         c.       Bulgaria is now striking a larger deal with Russia on
   natural gas. This next month Russia and Bulgaria economic and energy
   ministers will continue and     solidify energy talks. Thus far the plan
   is for Bulgaria to formally sign the remainder of the documents from
   mid-July on committing to South Stream. In return Bulgaria will receive a
   large natural gas price cut.
    
   The bilateral deal on the natural gas price cut is that Bulgaria's
   Bulgargaz will directly purchase gas from Gazprom instead of the three
   middlemen (Overgas, Wintershall and Gazpromexport). This will lower the
   price from the $576 per tcm to $339 per tcm. Negotiations on this
   bilateral deal will begin August 10.
    

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Watch Officer, STRAFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-07-26 19:02:48</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1717183_insight-bulgaria-russia-relations-and-energy-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.wilson@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>briefers@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1717446</id>
    <title>Re: Albania Update
</title>
    <description>   Yes, please rep. If we are allowed.

   Don't source. Just say STRATFOR source in country.

   On 1/27/11 11:46 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     reliable enough info to rep?

     On 1/27/11 11:42 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

 &gt;From TrapWire (protect source):

 The protest of the opposition will be held tomorrow at 14.00. It will be
 only in Tirana,

 

 

 


 --
 Marko Papic
 Analyst - Europe
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
</description>
    <date>2011-01-27 18:49:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1717446_re-albania-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1717613</id>
    <title>Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade
</title>
    <description>   These are all good points...

   But the story itself is a strange choice to include to back up your
   argument... Fromt he story itself:

   But the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, which handles
   the U.S. investigations, is at the mercy of local Mexican police for the
   amount and quality of the information.

   "Many of these rural municipalities that may come into a gun seizure ...
   may not even know anything about tracing guns," ATF spokesman Thomas
   Mangan said.

   That is almost verbatim what MX1 is saying. No?

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 3:25:47 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   But I simply don't buy the logic that the Mexicans are too inept to pull
   the serial numbers off of recovered guns.  ATF has been in the country
   since the 1980's and has conducted hundreds of classes on identification,
   plus the Mexican military has weapons specialists in dedicated weapons
   storage facilities that are fully capable of copying down serial numbers: 
    
   http://abcnews.go.com/International/WireStory?id=7518874&amp;page=1
    
   The fact that the Mexican government is only turning over 7200 serial
   numbers a year to the US for tracing is incredible -- and very meaningful
   to a curious analyst.
    
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Tuesday, July 07, 2009 4:16 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade
   Definitely... plus if you could seal the border forever... and stop the
   flow of guns (magically), there are still guns that are in mexico.

   That is why ATF needs to be INSIDE there... which is what MX1 was saying.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 3:13:21 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   Look back at this piece.
    
   http://www.stratfor.com/tracing_mexicos_guns
    
   There are certain classes of weapons that the cartels obtain from the U.S.
   but certain other classes that they do not.
    
   In recent years we are seeing the cartel enforcer groups move more toward
   what I call the class 3 weapons - assault rifles, grenades and RPGs -- as
   the cartel wars have heated up.
    
   Even if they U.S. border were hermitically sealed this afternoon, the
   cartels would still be able to get guns.
    
    
    
    
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Tuesday, July 07, 2009 4:03 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade
   Also, note that this is not all about price. Price only matters in a free
   market ceteris paribus theoretical. I can't think of something that is
   more not governed by free market than gun sales. I don't doubt that heavy
   weapons and grenades do not come from the U.S. That is just Mex gov't
   propaganda. But why on earth would all the other stuff come from anywhere
   else, regardless of the price, when you can cross the border and buy it in
   the U.S.

   Also, are you factoring transportation and cost of security for weapons
   shipped from China or Asia? You can't just look at face value price when
   you need to factor a number of other actors. It just seems ludicrous to me
   that the cartels would get light arms from anywhere else.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 2:59:44 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   That's good... definitely a link to add to it.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 2:57:39 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   You know, a really good way to prove this theory would be to show that
   there is gun flow from Mexico INTO the U.S. That would prove your
   assertion about market dynamics which I am not necessarily sold on.

   Here you go.  We have a documented flow of grenades into the US from MX.

    

   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090210_mexico_u_s_new_weapon_cartel_arsenal

    

   Guns are still more expensive in MX than in the US but there are other
   places where they are cheaper than either the US or MX.

    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Tuesday, July 07, 2009 3:50 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade
   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, July 7, 2009 2:07:05 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: S-weekly for Comment Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

   I didn't intend to get so deeply into the economic end of things when I
   began writing (this was supposed to be essentially  a primer on how
   international arms markets work) but when I began to think about the
   current gun and ammo shortages in the U.S. I kind of had an epiphany... 
   (I've been trying to buy a block of .22 rounds for weeks now. The guy
   at Wal-mart told me he got a shipment of .22s in last week and they sold
   out in 3 hours.)   This also has to have an impact on the cartels.

    

    

    

    

    

    

   Mexico: Economics and the Arms Trade

    

   On June 26, the small town of Apaseo el Alto, Guanajuato state, Mexico,
   was the scene of a [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090629_mexico_security_memo_june_29_2009
   ]  brief but deadly firefight between members of Los Zetas and federal and
   local security forces.  The engagement began when a joint patrol of
   Mexican soldiers and law enforcement officers responded to a report of
   heavily armed men at a suspected drug safe-house. When the patrol arrived,
   a 20 minute firefight erupted between the security forces and gunmen in
   the house, as well as several suspects in two vehicles that threw
   fragmentation grenades as they attempted to escape.

   When the shooting stopped, twelve gunmen were dead and twelve had been
   taken into custody, while several soldiers and police were reported
   wounded. At least half the detained suspects admitted to being members of
   Los Zetas. 

   When authorities examined the house they discovered a pit that contained
   the remains of an undetermined number of people (perhaps 14 or 15) who are
   believed to have been executed and then burned beyond recognition by Los
   Zetas.  The house also contained a large cache of weapons, including
   assault rifles and fragmentation grenades. Such [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/mexico_coming_fight_control_matamoros ] military
   ordnance is frequently used by Los Zetas and the enforcers who work for
   their rival cartels.

   STRATFOR has been [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/theme/tracking_mexicos_drug_cartels ] closely
   following the cartel violence in Mexico for several years now, and
   certainly the events that transpired in Apaseo el Alto are by no means
   unique. It is not uncommon for the Mexican authorities to engage in large
   firefights with cartel groups, encounter mass graves or [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20081112_worrying_signs_border_raids ]
   recover large caches of arms.  The recovery of these weapons does,
   however, provide an opportunity to once again focus on the dynamics of
   Mexicoa**s arms trade.

    

   White Black and Shades of Gray

    

   Before we get down in the weeds in Mexicoa**s arms flow, leta**s do
   something just a little different and first take a brief look at how arms
   trafficking works on a larger global and regional scale. Doing so will
   help better illustrate how the arms trafficking in Mexico fits into
   these broader patterns.

    

   When analysts examine arms sales they look at three general categories,
   the white arms, market, the gray arms market and the black arms market.
   The white arms market is the totally legal, above board transfer of
   weapons in accordance with the national laws of the parties involved and
   international treaties or restrictions. The parties in a white arms deal
   will file the proper paperwork to include end-user certificates noting
   what is being sold who is selling it and who it is going to.  There is an
   understanding that the receiving party does not intend to transfer the
   weapons to a third party. So for example, if the Mexican Army wants to buy
   an order of assault rifles from German arms maker Heckler and Koch, it
   places the order with the company and fills out all the required
   paperwork, to include getting permission for the sale from the German
   government.     

    

   Now, the white arms market can be deceived and manipulated, and when this
   happens, we get the gray market a** literally white arms that are shifted
   into the hands of someone other than the purported recipient. On of the
   classic ways to do this is to either falsify an end user certificate or to
   bribe an official in a third country to sign an end user certificate but
   then allow a shipment of arms to pass through a country en route to a
   third location. This type of transaction is frequently used in cases where
   there are international arms embargoes against a particular country (like
   Liberia) or where it is illegal to sell arms to a militant group (such as
   the FARC.)  On example of this would be Ukrainian small arms that were on
   paper supposed to go to CA'te d'Ivoire, but that were really transferred
   in violation of UN arms embargoes to Liberia and Sierra Leone. Another
   example of this would be the government of Peru ostensibly purchasing
   thousands of surplus East German assault rifles from Jordan on the white
   arms market but then those rifles slipped into the gray arms world when
   they were dropped at airstrips in the jungles of Colombia for use by the
   FARC instead of being delivered to the Peruvian military.

    

   At the far end of the spectrum is the black arms market where the guns are
   contraband from the get go and all the business is conducted under the
   board. There are no end user certificates and the weapons are smuggled
   covertly. Examples of this would be the smuggling of arms from the Former
   Soviet Union (FSU) and Afghanistan into Europe through places like Kosovo
   and Slovenia, or the smuggling of arms into South America from Asia, the
   FSU and Middle East by Hezbollah and criminal gangs in the Tri-Border
   Region.

    

   Nation states will often use the gray and black arms markets in order to
   support allies, undermine opponents or otherwise pursue their national
   interests. This was clearly revealed in the Iran-Contra scandal of the mid
   1980a**s but Iran-Contra only scratched the surface of the arms smuggling
   that occurred during the Cold War.  Untold tons of military ordnance was
   delivered by the U.S. and the Soviet Union and Cuba to their respective
   allies in Latin America during the Cold War.

   This quantity of materiel shipped into Latin America during the Cold War
   brings up another very important point pertaining to weapons. Unlike
   drugs, which are consumable goods, firearms are durable goods. This means
   that they can be useful for decades and are frequently shipped from
   conflict zone to conflict zone. East German MPiKMS and MPiKM assault
   rifles are still floating around the worlda**s arms markets years after
   the German Democratic Republic ceased to exist.  In fact, visiting an arms
   bazaar in a place like Yemen is like visiting an arms museum. One can
   encounter functional century-old Lee-Enfield and Springfield rifles in a
   rack next to a modern U.S. M-4 rifle or a German HK 93, and those next to
   brand-new, just out of the box, Chinese Type 56 and 81 assault rifles.  

    

   There is often a correlation between arms and drug smuggling. In many
   instances the same routes used to smuggle drugs are also used to smuggle
   arms. In some instances, like the smuggling routes from Central Asia to
   Europe, the flow of guns and drugs flows in the same direction, and they
   are both sold in Western Europe for cash.  In the case of Latin American
   cocaine, the drugs tend to flow in one direction (towards the U.S. and
   Europe) while guns from the U.S. and Russian organized crime groups flow
   in the other direction, and often times the guns are used as whole or
   partial payment for the drugs.

    

   Illegal drugs are not the only thing traded for guns.  During the Cold War
   there was a robust arms-for-sugar trade going on between the Cubans and
   Vietnamese. As a result, Marxist groups all over Latin America were
   furnished with U.S. materiel either captured or left behind when the
   Americans withdrew from the country.  LAW rockets traced to U.S. military
   stocks sent to Vietnam were used in several attacks by Latin American
   Marxist groups. These Vietnam-war vintage weapons still crop up with some
   frequency in Mexico, Colombia and other parts of the region. Cold-war era
   weapons furnished to the likes of the Contras, the Sandinistas, the FMLN
   and URNG in the 1980a**s are also frequently encountered in the region.

    

   After the civil wars ended in places like El Salvador and Guatemala, the
   governments and international community attempted to institute arms
   by-back programs, but those programs were not very successful and most of
   the guns turned in were very old a** the better arms were cached by groups
   or kept by individuals.  These guns have found their way in dribs and
   drabs back onto the black arms market

    

   Well Over 90%

    

   For several years now, Mexican officials have been telling STRATFOR that
   [link http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/mexico_dynamics_gun_trade ] 90
   percent of the arms used by criminals in Mexico come from the U.S.  Last
   month, that  number was echoed in a report by the Government
   Accountability Office (GAO) report on U.S. efforts to Conbat Arms
   Trafficking to Mexico (see external link).

    

     External link http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09709.pdf

     

   The GAO report stated that in 2008, some 30,000 firearms were seized from
   criminals by Mexican officials. Out of these 30,000 firearms, information
   pertaining to 7,200 of the, (24 percent) was submitted to ATF for tracing.
   Of these 7,200 guns, only approximately 4,000 could be traced and of these
   4,000, some 3,480 or 87 percent, were shown to have come from the U.S. 

    

   This means that the 87 percent number comes from the number of weapons
   submitted by the Mexican government to ATF that could be successfully
   traced, and not from the total number of weapons seized by the Mexicans or
   even from the total number of weapons submitted to ATF for tracing. The
   3,480 guns positively traced to the U.S. only equals less than 12 percent
   of the total arms seized in 2008 and less than 48 percent of those
   submitted to the ATF for tracing by the Mexican government.

   From our contact we have information for why this is so... He has before
   told us that Mexican authorities are incapable of properly tracing serial
   numbers and that often ATF uses numbers gathered in the open source. Many
   of these numbers are not serial numbers at all... instead they are model
   numbers or something else.

   Contact was adamant that the only way this could work is if the ATF had an
   actual presence in Mexico itself.

    

   The 87 percent number is not supported by the evidence presented by the
   GAO. In a response to the GAO report that was published as part of the
   report, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security called the GAOa**s use of
   the 87 percent statistic a**misleadinga**.  DHS further noted that
   a**Numerous problems with the data collection and sample population render
   this assertion as unreliable.a** Yes, this is most definitely corroborated
   by our Mexican contact.

    

   Interestingly, when STRATFOR asked a Mexican government official about the
   report in an attempt to get an honest read on the scope of the problem of
   U.S. firearms going to Mexico, the official told us (off the record) that
   the amount of ordnance (guns, grenades, ammunition, etc.) seized by the
   Mexican government that come from the U.S. is a**way over 90 percent.a**  
   With the 87 percent number being dubious, the a**way over 90 percenta**
   claim is really very hard to swallow. 

   Now at STRATFOR, we really dislike it when people attempt to feed us
   disinformation in an attempt to get us to report it to further some
   agenda. Of course such efforts quickly lead us to consider exactly what
   that agenda is, and frequently examining the motives of such people who 
   provides us with more interesting intelligence than the initial report
   itself. In this case it is clear that the motive of the Mexican government
   is simple deflection.

   It is not just deflection. Mexico is trying to establish the concept of
   "shared responsibility". That has been a key phrase that we have heard
   from U.S. officials themselves and from our contact as well. I personally
   think they are angling to get U.S. to feel sorry for them...

   The Mexicans have been criticized by the U.S. for decades over their
   inability to stop the flow of narcotics through their territory. Instead
   of addressing the hard problem and stopping the flow of narcotics, they
   have instead attempted to deflect criticism by blaming the guns proceeding
   from the U.S. for their inability to stop the flow of drugs. This is
   strange because Mexico has been arguing against U.S. arms flow for
   years... this is not something that is new. Sounds a bit like you're
   griping too...

   We strongly suspect that there is a program underway to cherry pick the
   guns provided to the ATF for tracing and that only those guns that are
   likely to be traced back to the U.S. are provided for tracing. Sounds like
   metaphysical intelligence to me... are you sure your sources on the U.S.
   side are not doing the same thing our Mexican soruces are?

    

   We strongly doubt the Mexicans are providing ATF information from the
   RPG-7 rocket launchers, South Korean hand grenades, Israeli, South African
   Belgian, German, Chinese and other foreign weapons that likely have no
   connection to the U.S.  In this way they Mexicans are able to spin the
   arms tracing figures in their favor, which provides them with a ready
   response whenever the U.S. criticizes Mexican counternarcotics efforts.
   Again, unless you have evidence of this... we are doing metaphysical
   intelligence. Our Mexican contact has said repeatedly that without ATF
   presence in Mexico, there is going to be no proper intelligence on serial
   numbers. He has said in a conversation two days ago that Mexico is hoping
   to have something in place where ATF is present in Mexico. It was in an
   insight that you commented on that he was smoking crack.

   Again, from the contact:

   The only really effective way to clamp down on trafficking in arms is to
   institutionalize physical access by ATF agents to Mexico, so they can take
   pictures, and run traces from there.  There are many dangers to this, but
   it is something that is being worked on, and which I expect to see
   completed within the next 12 months, at least de jure.

    

   Reality

    

   Arms, like drugs are a commodity, and as such, the economic laws of supply
   and demand play a big part in global arms trafficking. Ordnance flows from
   places where it is cheap and available to places where it is not. Because
   of this, the a**well over 90 percenta** argument does not make a whole lot
   of economic sense. Wait why? Logically it makes sense that it would flow
   from U.S.... at least the small arms (certainly not the heavy stuff that
   they get from corrupt Mexican cops and army). I mean you cross the border,
   go to a gun show and you get a gun... IT's simple.

    

   Firstly, it must be recognized that while arms sales are restricted in
   Mexico, they do occur and people are able to buy weapons from the
   government. In fact guns in calibers that are very popular in Mexico but
   fairly uncommon in the U.S. (like the .38 Super) are commonly used by
   criminals.    Yup... corroberated by contact.

    

   Secondly at the present time assault rifles are very expensive in the
   United States, as is ammunition. In fact, it is difficult to locate many
   types of assault rifles and ammunition at the present time, though a lucky
   buyer might be able to find a basic stripped down AR-15 for between $850
   and $1100, or and an AK-47 for between $650 and $850. Obviously, a gun
   purchased in the U.S., smuggled into Mexico and sold to a cartel is going
   to carry a premium well above this purchase price. Sure, but you just have
   to cross the border to get it. Also, this does not preclude gun sales
   prior to price inflation.  Now, by way of comparison, a surplus assault
   rifle can be purchased for under $100 on the white arms market, and about
   the same on the black arms market in locations where weapons are abundant.
   That difference in price provides a powerful economic incentive to buy low
   elsewhere and sell high in Mexico.  Indeed, we have seen reports of
   international arms merchants from places like Israel and Belgium, selling
   weapons to the cartels, and that ordnance is coming into Mexico through
   routes other than over the U.S. border.  

    

   You know, a really good way to prove this theory would be to show that
   there is gun flow from Mexico INTO the U.S. That would prove your
   assertion about market dynamics which I am not necessarily sold on.

   At the same time as gun and ammunition prices have spiked in the U.S. the
   profits of the Mexican cartels have plummeted due to increased enforcement
   efforts and inter- and intra- cartel wars.  Many of the cartels are
   hurting for money and have had to resort to kidnapping and other crime in
   order to finance their operations. That means that they will be attempting
   to purchase maximum firepower for the minimum price.

    

   The Bottom Line

    

   STRATFOR believes that the issue of U.S. guns being sent south of the
   border is a serious issue, but we do not believe that U.S. weapons
   represent any where near 90 percent of the cartelsa** weaponry a**
   especially their military-style weapons like fully automatic assault
   rifles, fragmentation grenades and RPGa**s, where the percentage of U.S.
   ordnance is negligible. Yeah, I think that is true as well... definitely
   not the heavy serious stuff. The cartels clearly have contacts with arms
   dealers outside of the U.S. both those who deal in cold war-era stocks of
   arms in Latin America and international arms merchants who can supply arms
   from around the world.

    

   While increased U.S. enforcement efforts will have an impact as the risk
   of being caught outweighs the profit that can be made by selling guns to
   the cartels, we believe that economics (high gun prices and scarce
   ammunition supplies you are overemphesizing this... this is a current
   issue that has nothing to do with last 3-4 years of arms sales though. )
   may play an equally important part in reducing the flow of U.S. guns to
   Mexico IN THE FUTURE (or at least while Obama is the President). The laws
   of supply and demand will ensure that the Mexican cartels get their
   ordnance in the most price effective way, and with the current gun and
   ammunition supply issues in the U.S. that will likely mean that an even
   greater amount of that supply will come from outside the U.S. via the gray
   and black arms markets.

    
   Scott Stewart
   STRATFOR
   Office: 814 967 4046
   Cell: 814 573 8297
   scott.stewart@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
    
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1717613_re-s-weekly-for-comment-mexico-economics-and-the-arms-trade-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1717932</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - RUSSIA - Latest in Clan Wars (protect for now)
</title>
    <description>   Wow... Putin is letting it go both ways then.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Lauren Goodrich" &lt;goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Secure List" &lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;, "George Friedman"
   &lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, December 21, 2009 1:01:49 PM GMT -06:00 Central America
   Subject: INSIGHT - RUSSIA - Latest in Clan Wars (protect for now)

   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION:  checking
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  The Prosecutor General
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
   HANDLER: Lauren
    
   The past few weeks have been particularly difficult between the clans.
    
   Surkov/Medvedev tandem has purge a slew of people from
   Sechin/Patrusheva**s clan. 21 officials from the Interior Ministry, 5 FSB
   Generals in the Defense Ministry and Moscowa**s police chief Pronin have
   all been purged.
    
   In response, Sechin/Patrusheva**s group has decided that they need to come
   after me and my groupa**the Prosecutor Generala**s office. They have used
   their foot soldier, Alexander Bastrykin, in the Investigative Committee to
   launch a purge within my office. Bastrykin vows to not be owned by Sechin,
   though I have never believed this and now my proof is here. Thus far they
   have gotten fired the head of my Investigative Committee, Anatoli
   Bagmeta**who was critical to aiding me in my work inside our
   investigations against the Siloviki. Bastrykin is planning on firing the
   heads of the regional Investigative Committees as well, 12 in all.
    
   The problem is that Sechin/Patrushev want to come after me (Chaika), but
   Surkov will not allow such a move. What I have been told is that Putin has
   laid ground rules on how far each clan can go to  purge the other. For
   example, Surkova**s request to have Interior Minister Nurgaliyev sacked
   was quickly nixed by Putin. Now that Sechina**s move to get me fired has
   also been shielded from above. So instead there are a lot of purges
   happening on the second tier, like these in the past few weeks.
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1717932_re-insight-russia-latest-in-clan-wars-protect-for-now-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1719754</id>
    <title>Re: G3/S3* - Turkey - Two more journalists jailed over coup plot
</title>
    <description>   150 is a huge #. I see this as a way for Gulen to subvert the AKP.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Emre Dogru &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Sun, 6 Mar 2011 12:50:53 -0600 (CST)
   To: &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;; Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: G3/S3* - Turkey - Two more journalists jailed over coup plot
   I really don't know and I don't think this can be found out accurately. We
   can know this at ministerial level at best. President Gul and FM Davutoglu
   are close to Gulen, for example.

   Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     How many Gulenites in the current parliament?

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Emre Dogru &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Sun, 6 Mar 2011 12:42:30 -0600 (CST)
     To: &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;; Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: G3/S3* - Turkey - Two more journalists jailed over coup
     plot
     I think it's not AKP, but Gulen movement that takes this step.

     AKP came under criticism from the opposition and from the US, when
     generals and some other journalists were arrested two weeks ago. Thus,
     it doesn't make sense for AKP to arrest two more journalists (who most
     people believe unrelated to any of plots against AKP) and create more
     controversy ahead of elections. Erdogan is a pragmatic guy, he would not
     want more pressure before elections that would increase public fear
     against AKP. So, Gulen movement puts pressure on AKP by making these
     arrests. The question is why. I discussed this with our Turkish friend
     who came to Austin recently. He says Gulenists want 150 MPs from AKP if
     Erdogan wants less pressure. It's basically a post-election bargaining.
     friedman@att.blackberry.net wrote:

       Explain why akp would take this step. It seems to energize oppostion
       rather than strengthen akp. What is their thinking?

       Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Emre Dogru &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
       Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
       Date: Sun, 6 Mar 2011 11:38:16 -0600 (CST)
       To: &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
       ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
       Subject: Re: G3/S3* - Turkey - Two more journalists jailed over coup
       plot
       There is a point here that is related to the discussion that Rodger,
       Kamran, Reva and I had while I was writing the PKK piece last week.
       They argued that PKK ending ceasefire could create an opening for
       opposition to use regional unrest as cover to topple the AKP. I said
       this was unlikely.
       Arrests of these two journalists made a huge impact in Turkey. They
       are accused of being linked to Ergenekon. Turkish political agenda is
       currently overwhelmed by these arrests since no one believes that they
       are part of such plan. I can say that so far I have not seen the
       Turkish media being so outspoken about the fear that AKP creates, the
       auto-censure that they have to apply and how they fear being arrested
       because of their opposition against AKP/Gulen movement. Some
       journalists marched on Saturday to protest the arrests, all ministers
       (including Erdogan) had to make some mild statements to distance AKP
       from arrests, which nobody bought.
       But the point here is that even at such a period when AKP is seen as
       most autocratic government and there is huge criticism against it,
       neither there were mass protests on the streets, nor opposition tried
       to exploit it. If there is an opportunity to use regional unrest as
       cover to show how undemocratic AKP is, this is it. But it did not take
       place yet. I think this proves my point.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: "Nate Hughes" &lt;hughes@stratfor.com&gt;
       To: "alerts" &lt;alerts@stratfor.com&gt;
       Sent: Sunday, March 6, 2011 4:53:02 PM
       Subject: G3/S3* - Turkey - Two more journalists jailed over coup plot

       Turkey jails two more journalists over coup plot
       http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/06/us-turkey-plot-idUSTRE7251G920110306

       9:09am EST
       By Ibon Villelabeitia
       ANKARA (Reuters) - A court on Sunday charged two more prominent
       journalists with links to an alleged plot to topple the Turkish
       government in a case that has raised worries of media freedom in
       Turkey.
       Ahmet Sik and Nedim Sener, who have written investigative books about
       Turkey's clandestine "deep state" activities, were detained on
       Thursday with six other journalists after police raided their homes at
       dawn. They were jailed pending trial.
       Another prominent journalist, Soner Yalcin, who runs a news website
       critical of the government, was charged last month as part of the same
       case, which has turned the political heat on the government before
       elections in June.
       The arrests of journalists in Turkey, a country which has applied to
       join the European Union, has also drawn expressions of concern from
       the United States, the EU and Human Rights Watch about Ankara's
       commitment to democratic principles and free media.
       Human Right Watch said on Saturday such developments had a "chilling
       effect" on free speech and urged Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's
       government to respect press freedom.
       Authorities say the arrests are part of an investigation into an
       alleged plot by a murky ultra-nationalist group known as Ergenekon to
       overthrow Erdogan's AK Party government.
       But critics say the case is being used to silence media critical of
       the AK government, which has a huge majority in parliament and
       controls levers of state power.
       Sik is already on trial over a book he co-wrote about the Ergenekon
       group. He had also written stories in a now-defunct magazine about
       diaries by a formal navy commander outlining the existence of an
       alleged coup plan against Erdogan's government.
       Sener has written books about the investigation into the killing of
       Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink in 2007, in which members of
       Turkey's clandestine state apparatus have long been suspected of
       having a role.
       The government is expected to easily win a third consecutive term in
       parliamentary elections in June.
       Erdogan has said the arrests have nothing to do with the government
       but the case threatens to become an election issue.
       Thousands of people, many of them journalists, marched in Ankara and
       Istanbul on Friday in response to the detentions and chanted
       anti-government slogans.
       Public opinion was behind the government after the first Ergenekon
       arrests back in 2007, particularly of retired military and police
       officers, as few Turks want a return to the coups that blighted the
       country in the late 20th century.
       But skepticism set in as the case broadened and police detained
       academics, journalists, civil society workers, and in one case, a
       transsexual singer. Hundreds have been taken in and many suspects have
       been held for more than two years.
       The trials reflect a lingering mistrust between the traditionally
       secular establishment and a ruling party that critics say retains
       Islamist leanings.
       The AK Party, which swept establishment parties from power in 2002, is
       regarded by investors as the most market-friendly party due to
       Turkey's economic success over the past decade.
       Critics accuse Erdogan of having an authoritarian streak and say AK
       has lost its reformist spirit after eight years in power.
       --
       Nathan Hughes
       Director
       Military Analysis
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com

       --
       --
       Emre Dogru
       STRATFOR  
       Cell: +90.532.465.7514
       Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
       emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
       www.stratfor.com

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-03-06 19:52:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-07 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1719754_re-g3-s3-turkey-two-more-journalists-jailed-over-coup-plot-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1720327</id>
    <title>New-tern Info...
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2009-05-11 22:15:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1720327_new-tern-info-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>robert.reinfrank@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/126/126613_FSU sweep list.doc</path><size>41472</size><md5></md5><sha1>5f504b22a86e21d054996eec9a56c763f6430ca8</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/126/126614_Team Eurasia 090302.xls</path><size>32768</size><md5></md5><sha1>28e478efb0ca246f5d14580c350a313b517c6015</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/126/126615_READING LIST.doc</path><size>25600</size><md5></md5><sha1>e7b422f4dc8572bca673c6d069212ba6d72b06de</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/126/126616_GV Client List for Team.doc</path><size>44032</size><md5></md5><sha1>3cb219e751d88534b8296db27ea760bd858c2056</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1720488</id>
    <title>G3 - GERMANY - Report says Bundeswehr lied during Kunduz strike
</title>
    <description>   Report says Bundeswehr lied during Kunduz strike

   Published: 23 Dec 09 10:02 CET
   Online: http://www.thelocal.de/national/20091223-24131.html

   The German military deliberately misled the American fighter pilots who
   carried out the Kunduz air strikes in which up to 142 Afghans, including
   many civilians, were killed, daily Frankfurter Rundschau reported
   Wednesday.

   Citing a confidential investigation report by the International Security
   Assistance Force (ISAF), the paper reported that Bundeswehr Colonel Georg
   Kleina**s communications officer falsely claimed the German troops had
   a**enemy contacta** to justify the September 4 strike.

   According to the report, the officer, codenamed "Red Baron 21," was acting
   on instructions from Col. Georg Klein, who ordered the deadly air strike.

   Red Baron 21 knowingly misled the flight control centre that was
   instructing the two F-15 fighters that carried out the attack, saying
   troops were in a**immediate dangera** in order a**to make it possible for
   the mission to go ahead,a** the ISAF report said, according to the
   Frankfurter Rundschau.

   But no such enemy contact had taken place. Under the ISAF rules, such an
   air strike can only go ahead if troops are under fire or immediately
   threatened. But at the time of the attack, the nearest German troops were
   nearly eight kilometres away in the Kunduz Bundeswehr field camp. If the
   report is correct, then the Germans breached the regulations.

   The victims of the air strike on two hijacked petrol tankers included many
   civilians, sparking a political maelstrom in Germany. Franz Josef Jung,
   who was Defence Minister at the time of the attack, was forced to resign
   along with Germanya**s top soldier Wolfgang Schneiderhahn and senior
   Defence Ministry bureaucrat Peter Wichert after it emerged the government
   had falsely claimed no civilians were killed in the attack.

   Now there is increasing pressure on Junga**s successor, Karl-Theodor zu
   Guttenberg, along with Chancellor Angela Merkel, to explain the
   information debacle that followed the attack. The lower house of the
   parliament or Bundestag, will begin an inquiry into the governmenta**s
   handling of the affair in January.

   The latest revelations will increase the stakes further.

   News magazine Der Spiegel recently reported that Col. Klein turned down
   the F-15 pilotsa** request to do a a**fly overa** of the two stranded
   tankers, giving the people on the ground time to flee.

   This fact, along with the alleged false claim that German troops had had
   contact with the Taliban, would mean Col. Klein breached ISAF protocols on
   air strikes

   http://www.thelocal.de/national/20091223-24131.html
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-08 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1720488_g3-germany-report-says-bundeswehr-lied-during-kunduz-strike-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>watchofficer@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1722109</id>
    <title>Re: Meeting tomorrow?
</title>
    <description>   His career path is too set. I mean everyone has a price, I am sure... but
   that would really be a conversation between him and you (and a combo of
   George/Rodger/Fred) and not for me to speak to. I did float that idea to
   him -- last in March 2010 -- and he was somewhat open to it... but he did
   make a point that "Like Fred, I first need to get pissed off at the
   government first. I'm not there yet." (is a big Stick/Fred fan, by the
   way... but then who is not?)

   He is doing far too well in the FM by the way. He is the youngest FSO in
   recent Mexican history -- not counting Speedy Gonzales' stint as
   Ambassador to Albuquerque -- and has been appointed the GOM point man on
   SB1070 in Arizona, which is essentially like being the U.S. FSO in charge
   of Afghanistan in Kabul. The GOM paid for his law school stint at UNM to
   preprare him for more interactions with U.S. law enforcement and
   legislators. He is also being given a free hand to speak to US law
   enforcement and I think he doubles duty with CISEN, but he won't tell me
   which I understand. But his contacts in Mexican intelligence and law
   enforcement are too great for someone who -- at that age -- should be
   stamping passports.

   So he is being molded to be the Mexican "tip 'o the spear" in the U.S. He
   would be crazy to abandon that at whatever ludicrous young age he is...
   but when the government screws him over... he will fall into our hands at
   the right price. Could take 20 years though.

   By the way, he is an avid STRAT-fan. This is not some lazy, well manicured
   diplomat who thinks the world runs according to his memos (although he can
   be arrogant as all hell). He actually turned me to Stratfor back when we
   were freshmen in college. He is also much more than a Mexican analyst. He
   knows the entire LATAM back and forth -- is half Colombian in fact.

   I made it aware to him that our STRATFOR-P would be a lot more intense and
   he seemed to understand and be interested. One thing that he seemed very
   interested in is the fact that we would need his analytical thought on
   Mexican politics. Thus far, he has had to be very careful with the CT team
   and what information he gives us, since a lot of his information is in
   fact classified. He has broken law on a few occasions, but each time we
   were extremely discreet about it.  But with what Reva does, he would be
   able to talk all he wants, since none of that stuff is classified and its
   just his own analytical understanding. The question is can we offer
   greater compensation for his services. I told him to not get his hopes up,
   but it is something I would have to talk to you about tomorrow.

   On 12/15/10 6:00 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     Do you think he'd ever consider coming to work for us as an analyst? Or
     is his career path too set?

      

      

      

     From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Wednesday, December 15, 2010 6:47 PM
     To: rodger.baker@stratfor.com; scott.stewart@stratfor.com
     Subject: Meeting tomorrow?

      

     Hi Stick and Rodger,

     I know you guys are slammed tomorrow with meetings...

     Any time for a quick 10 minute one?

     It's about MX1 and potentially expanding his services with the Mexican
     STRATFOR-P.

     He is a potential political asset. I know we have used him mainly for CT
     purposes, but he is actually potentially a strong candidate for more
     than that.

     I would only need 10 minutes to talk about him, but I figure since Stick
     is in the office it may be a good idea we do it tomorrow. I am out on
     Friday.

     Cheers,

     Marko
</description>
    <date>2010-12-16 01:15:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-09 05:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1722109_re-meeting-tomorrow-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1722971</id>
    <title>TrapWire read on Mubarak 
</title>
    <description>   Fill your gas tanks this weekend.

    

   (Panetta botched this one....)

   Really tough call. Mubarak has an ego bigger than Cowboy's Stadium and has
   long ago disassociated from the man-on-the-street. (Remind me to tell you
   some horror stories of working with the service there and the way the
   treated the citizenry). He's also not one to rule by committee, so there's
   probably little chance anyone's getting through to him with logic. Would
   also not surprise me if he's actually a little scared. Where exactly would
   he go...and what would he do if he leaves office this way? Is a date with
   the International Court in his future on human rights charges...like so
   many modern dictators? He can't be feeling too confident with this
   administration covering his ass if the Egyptian populace starts screaming
   for an accounting of past sins.

    

   The real kicker in all this is that the only reason we don't have a 9/11
   type incident happening every week in this country is because of dictators
   like Mubarak. He's kept his boot on the throat of the Brotherhood and
   every other radical Islamic group for some time now. Yes, he has probably
   thrown many people in prison for nothing more than being in the wrong
   place at the wrong time. But he's been one of our staunchest allies in the
   GWOT and we'll start paying the price (with more attacks on US facilities)
   when he's gone. If I were him, I'd take my millions, head to Tahiti and
   giggle at Obama as he struggles with the flood of attacks that are sure to
   come.

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-02-11 01:43:19</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1722971_trapwire-read-on-mubarak-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1723325</id>
    <title>AW: Question about German Policy Towards Iran
</title>
    <description>Dear Mr. Papic,

thank you for your kind mail. Unfortunately I am not an expert on the Germa=
n Iran policy. I suggest, that you get in touch with my SWP colleague Olive=
r Thr=E4nert, who works on the Iranian nuclear program and the Western resp=
onses.

Best regards,

Markus Kaim

PD Dr. habil. Markus Kaim=20
Leiter Forschungsgruppe Sicherheitspolitik=20
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik=20
Ludwigkirchplatz 3-4=20
D-10719 Berlin=20
Tel.: (49)-(0)30-88007-294=20
FAX: (49)-(0)30-88007-5294=20
eMail: markus.kaim@swp-berlin.org=20

Neu erschienen: "Pr=E4sident Obama und die transatlantischen Sicherheitsbez=
iehungen": http://www.bpb.de/files/NHT6R8.pdf


-----Urspr=FCngliche Nachricht-----
Von: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]=20
Gesendet: Donnerstag, 28. Januar 2010 16:22
An: Kaim, Markus
Betreff: Question about German Policy Towards Iran

Dear Dr. Kaim,

I am an analyst with STRATFOR, U.S. intelligence-based media company
(www.stratfor.com). I am also a friend and former student of Dr. Stefan
Gaenzle who was my professor at the Institute for European Studies at
the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, Canada. I emailed
Stefan asking him if he could point me to someone who followed German
foreign politics closely and who could help me answer a few questions
about Germany's policy towards Iran.

I hope that I would not be bothering you if I did in fact ask a few
questions. I am interested particularly in the apparent shift in tone of
Chancellor Merkel two days ago, when she said that Iran's "time is up".
This was, as you know, subsequently followed by Tehran's announcement
that two German diplomats were arrested during the December Ashura
protests. My questions, in no particular order are:

-- Is there in fact a shift in German policy towards sanctions, or was
the more strict tone more reflective of the pressure from the visiting
Israeli delegation?
-- Are CDU and FDP on the same page when it comes to Iranian sanctions?
-- If there is a shift in Germany's stance on the sanctions, how would
you characterize the reasons for it?

All of these questions are completely off the record. We write our
analyses as intelligence briefs and never cite sources, although in this
case I really just need some background information on this issue.

Stefan sends his best regards and I thank you in advance for any time
you may find to spare.

All the best,

Marko


--=20
=20
Marko Papic

STRATFOR=20
Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
marko.papic@stratfor.com
www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-01-28 17:26:21</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-20 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1723325_aw-question-about-german-policy-towards-iran-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Oliver.Thraenert@swp-berlin.org</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Markus.Kaim@swp-berlin.org</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1723340</id>
    <title>Re: AW: Question about German Policy Towards Iran
</title>
    <description>Dear Dr. Kaim,

Thank you very much for your prompt reply and referral. I will email
Oliver immediately.

All the best,

Marko




Kaim, Markus wrote:
&gt; Dear Mr. Papic,
&gt;
&gt; thank you for your kind mail. Unfortunately I am not an expert on the German Iran policy. I suggest, that you get in touch with my SWP colleague Oliver Thränert, who works on the Iranian nuclear program and the Western responses.
&gt;
&gt; Best regards,
&gt;
&gt; Markus Kaim
&gt;
&gt; PD Dr. habil. Markus Kaim 
&gt; Leiter Forschungsgruppe Sicherheitspolitik 
&gt; Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik 
&gt; Ludwigkirchplatz 3-4 
&gt; D-10719 Berlin 
&gt; Tel.: (49)-(0)30-88007-294 
&gt; FAX: (49)-(0)30-88007-5294 
&gt; eMail: markus.kaim@swp-berlin.org 
&gt;
&gt; Neu erschienen: "Präsident Obama und die transatlantischen Sicherheitsbeziehungen": http://www.bpb.de/files/NHT6R8.pdf
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; -----Ursprüngliche Nachricht-----
&gt; Von: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com] 
&gt; Gesendet: Donnerstag, 28. Januar 2010 16:22
&gt; An: Kaim, Markus
&gt; Betreff: Question about German Policy Towards Iran
&gt;
&gt; Dear Dr. Kaim,
&gt;
&gt; I am an analyst with STRATFOR, U.S. intelligence-based media company
&gt; (www.stratfor.com). I am also a friend and former student of Dr. Stefan
&gt; Gaenzle who was my professor at the Institute for European Studies at
&gt; the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, Canada. I emailed
&gt; Stefan asking him if he could point me to someone who followed German
&gt; foreign politics closely and who could help me answer a few questions
&gt; about Germany's policy towards Iran.
&gt;
&gt; I hope that I would not be bothering you if I did in fact ask a few
&gt; questions. I am interested particularly in the apparent shift in tone of
&gt; Chancellor Merkel two days ago, when she said that Iran's "time is up".
&gt; This was, as you know, subsequently followed by Tehran's announcement
&gt; that two German diplomats were arrested during the December Ashura
&gt; protests. My questions, in no particular order are:
&gt;
&gt; -- Is there in fact a shift in German policy towards sanctions, or was
&gt; the more strict tone more reflective of the pressure from the visiting
&gt; Israeli delegation?
&gt; -- Are CDU and FDP on the same page when it comes to Iranian sanctions?
&gt; -- If there is a shift in Germany's stance on the sanctions, how would
&gt; you characterize the reasons for it?
&gt;
&gt; All of these questions are completely off the record. We write our
&gt; analyses as intelligence briefs and never cite sources, although in this
&gt; case I really just need some background information on this issue.
&gt;
&gt; Stefan sends his best regards and I thank you in advance for any time
&gt; you may find to spare.
&gt;
&gt; All the best,
&gt;
&gt; Marko
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;   

-- 
 
Marko Papic

STRATFOR 
Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
marko.papic@stratfor.com
www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-01-28 18:53:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-20 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1723340_re-aw-question-about-german-policy-towards-iran-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Markus.Kaim@swp-berlin.org</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1724110</id>
    <title>RE: TrapWire read on Mubarak 
</title>
    <description>   But he's been one of our staunchest allies in the GWOT and we'll start
   paying the price (with more attacks on US facilities) when he's gone. If I
   were him, I'd take my millions, head to Tahiti and giggle at Obama as he
   struggles with the flood of attacks that are sure to come.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Fred Burton
   Sent: Thursday, February 10, 2011 6:43 PM
   To: 'Analyst List'
   Subject: TrapWire read on Mubarak

   Fill your gas tanks this weekend.

    

   (Panetta botched this one....)

   Really tough call. Mubarak has an ego bigger than Cowboy's Stadium and has
   long ago disassociated from the man-on-the-street. (Remind me to tell you
   some horror stories of working with the service there and the way the
   treated the citizenry). He's also not one to rule by committee, so there's
   probably little chance anyone's getting through to him with logic. Would
   also not surprise me if he's actually a little scared. Where exactly would
   he go...and what would he do if he leaves office this way? Is a date with
   the International Court in his future on human rights charges...like so
   many modern dictators? He can't be feeling too confident with this
   administration covering his ass if the Egyptian populace starts screaming
   for an accounting of past sins.

    

   The real kicker in all this is that the only reason we don't have a 9/11
   type incident happening every week in this country is because of dictators
   like Mubarak. He's kept his boot on the throat of the Brotherhood and
   every other radical Islamic group for some time now. Yes, he has probably
   thrown many people in prison for nothing more than being in the wrong
   place at the wrong time. But he's been one of our staunchest allies in the
   GWOT and we'll start paying the price (with more attacks on US facilities)
   when he's gone. If I were him, I'd take my millions, head to Tahiti and
   giggle at Obama as he struggles with the flood of attacks that are sure to
   come.

    

    

   No virus found in this incoming message.
   Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
   Version: 9.0.872 / Virus Database: 271.1.1/3434 - Release Date: 02/10/11
   01:34:00
</description>
    <date>2011-02-11 01:49:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1724110_re-trapwire-read-on-mubarak-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1724553</id>
    <title>Re: AW: Question about German Policy Towards Iran
</title>
    <description>   Dear Dr. Thra:nert,

   I was referred to you by your colleague Dr. Kaim, who is a friend of my
   former professor Dr. Stefan Gaenzle. I am an analyst with STRATFOR, U.S.
   intelligence-based media company (www.stratfor.com) and I have a few
   questions in regards to the German-Iranian relations.

   I hope that I would not be bothering you if I asked few questions. I am
   interested particularly in the apparent shift in tone of Chancellor Merkel
   two days ago, when she said that Iran's "time is up". This was, as you
   know, subsequently followed by Tehran's announcement that two German
   diplomats were arrested during the December Ashura protests. My questions,
   in no particular order are:

   -- Is there in fact a shift in German policy towards sanctions, or was
   the more strict tone more reflective of the pressure from the visiting
   Israeli delegation?
   -- Are CDU and FDP on the same page when it comes to Iranian sanctions?
   -- If there is a shift in Germany's stance on the sanctions, how would
   you characterize the reasons for it?

   All of these questions are completely off the record. We write our
   analyses as intelligence briefs and never cite sources, although in this
   case I really just need some background information on this issue. If you
   would prefer that we speak on the phone, I am available that way as well.
   I greatly appreciate any time you spare and hope I can return the favor if
   you ever need help with research or commentary.

   All the best,

   Marko

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

   Kaim, Markus wrote:

 Dear Mr. Papic,

 thank you for your kind mail. Unfortunately I am not an expert on the German Iran policy. I suggest, that you get in touch with my SWP colleague Oliver Thra:nert, who works on the Iranian nuclear program and the Western responses.

 Best regards,

 Markus Kaim

 PD Dr. habil. Markus Kaim
 Leiter Forschungsgruppe Sicherheitspolitik
 Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
 Ludwigkirchplatz 3-4
 D-10719 Berlin
 Tel.: (49)-(0)30-88007-294
 FAX: (49)-(0)30-88007-5294
 eMail: markus.kaim@swp-berlin.org

 Neu erschienen: "Pra:sident Obama und die transatlantischen Sicherheitsbeziehungen": http://www.bpb.de/files/NHT6R8.pdf


 -----Urspru:ngliche Nachricht-----
 Von: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
 Gesendet: Donnerstag, 28. Januar 2010 16:22
 An: Kaim, Markus
 Betreff: Question about German Policy Towards Iran

 Dear Dr. Kaim,

 I am an analyst with STRATFOR, U.S. intelligence-based media company
 (www.stratfor.com). I am also a friend and former student of Dr. Stefan
 Gaenzle who was my professor at the Institute for European Studies at
 the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, Canada. I emailed
 Stefan asking him if he could point me to someone who followed German
 foreign politics closely and who could help me answer a few questions
 about Germany's policy towards Iran.

 I hope that I would not be bothering you if I did in fact ask a few
 questions. I am interested particularly in the apparent shift in tone of
 Chancellor Merkel two days ago, when she said that Iran's "time is up".
 This was, as you know, subsequently followed by Tehran's announcement
 that two German diplomats were arrested during the December Ashura
 protests. My questions, in no particular order are:

 -- Is there in fact a shift in German policy towards sanctions, or was
 the more strict tone more reflective of the pressure from the visiting
 Israeli delegation?
 -- Are CDU and FDP on the same page when it comes to Iranian sanctions?
 -- If there is a shift in Germany's stance on the sanctions, how would
 you characterize the reasons for it?

 All of these questions are completely off the record. We write our
 analyses as intelligence briefs and never cite sources, although in this
 case I really just need some background information on this issue.

 Stefan sends his best regards and I thank you in advance for any time
 you may find to spare.

 All the best,

 Marko


  
</description>
    <date>2010-01-28 19:00:32</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-20 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1724553_re-aw-question-about-german-policy-towards-iran-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Oliver.Thraenert@swp-berlin.org</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1727162</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - SWEDEN: Carl Bildt
</title>
    <description>   Hey Aaric,

   That sounds good... That was just two days (really day and a half) in
   Strasbourg as well. 

   I am back on November 6th. So let's plan to sit down and mull after that.

   Cheers,

   Marko

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Aaric Eisenstein" &lt;eisenstein@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, September 17, 2009 9:29:26 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: INSIGHT - SWEDEN: Carl Bildt

   If you're up at 4, you're insane.  I'll make the introductions when you're
   back.  When's that?
    
   You're getting some amazing shit over there, just amazing.  I want to sit
   down with you when you get back and plot and scheme on how we can turn it
   into cash.
    
   Later,
    
   AA
    
   Aaric S. Eisenstein
   SVP Publishing
   STRATFOR
   512-744-4308
   512-744-4334 fax
   aaric.eisenstein@stratfor.com
   Follow us on http://Twitter.com/stratfor
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, September 17, 2009 8:58 PM
   To: eisenstein@stratfor.com
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - SWEDEN: Carl Bildt
   But I don't know who Grant Perry is... or do I? It's 4am here so I may be
   completely insane.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: eisenstein@stratfor.com
   To: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, September 17, 2009 8:56:11 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - SWEDEN: Carl Bildt

   Believe grant Perry knows Bildt. Check with Grant if you need

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Sep 17, 2009, at 7:30 PM, Marko Papic &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

     SOURCE CODE: SW501 (SW501 is a very well connected Swedish MEP with
     extremely close links to both the FM Carl Bildt -- his closest ally
     basically -- and the Balkans).
     PUBLICATION: No
     ATTRIBUTION:
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: NA
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: NA
     SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:
     SPECIAL HANDLING: Secure
     SOURCE HANDLER: Marko

     I got a lot of info on Carl Bildt. Our Swedish MEP contact is basically
     his main ally. Bildt is apparently super tall, has photographic memory
     and is very smart. He has a very rocky relationship with the current
     Prime Minister because Reinfeldt was the youth leader of the Moderate
     Party when Bildt was the Prime Minister briefly and the two did not get
     along.

     Bildt believes that Sweden should become a world power. He talks a lot
     about the traditional sphere of Swedish influence in the Baltic (sort of
     like our monograph). From his experiences in the Balkans he has decided
     that he does not like Croats and Albanians.

     He is also very critical of Russia. He called Putin a "chetnik" in the
     middle of a meeting with an MEP group. He is essentially a personna non
     grata in Moscow. He is also at odds with Sarkozy because before Sweden
     received its EU Presidency he essentially told the French not to pull
     the same stuff they did with Czech Republic.

     He is very involved with enlargement. Sweden sees enlargement as a way
     to break the German-Frenc stranglehold on the EU. His personal goal is
     to see every Balkan state make one step forward towards accession during
     his premiership.

     I did meet his wife, who is also an MEP in the Parliament. She is
     apparently Italian and does not speak really good Swedish, so she
     couldn't get into the Swedish parliament. Instead, she campaigned for
     the European and got in.
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1727162_re-insight-sweden-carl-bildt-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>eisenstein@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1728760</id>
    <title>Re: Thoughts on Der Spiegel?
</title>
    <description>   To answer Reva's question, this is certainly something that could be
   assumed. Mossad and German intelligence have grown close over the years,
   especially following the fiasco in Munich. On the other hand, Der Spiegel
   usually does very good in depth analyses and investigative work. Best at
   that in Germany. In that way, it has a very good tradition of
   investigative journalism similar to the Guardian (although it is a weekly,
   not a daily like the Guardian).

   Kamran Bokhari wrote:

 If you are going by what defectors tell you then it is also reasonable to
 assume that the Iranians have moved things around since the defections.

 -----Original Message-----
 From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
 On Behalf Of Fred Burton
 Sent: January-25-10 1:43 PM
 To: Analyst List
 Subject: Re: Thoughts on Der Spiegel?

 Western experts believe that this center developed into a
 sub-organization of the Defense Ministry known as the FEDAT, an acronym
 for the "Department for Expanded High-Technology Applications" -- the
 secret heart of Iran's nuclear weapons program. The head of that
 organization is Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, 48, an officer in the Revolutionary
 Guard and a professor at Tehran's Imam Hossein University.

 ** This kind of granularity is critical.


 Reva Bhalla wrote:
  

 Any thoughts on Der Spiegel as an outlet for Mossad or any other
 intelligence agencies?  Have we seen examples of this in the past?  They
 have some insane detail here (read the second half) where they claim
 they've got all this access to a classified doc on Iran's nuclear
 weapons program



           01/25/2010

 


   The Secret Nuclear Dossier


     Intelligence from Tehran Elevates Concern in the West

 By Dieter Bednarz, Erich Follath and Holger Stark

 *The West has long been suspicous of Iran's nuclear program. SPIEGEL has
 obtained new documents on secret tests and leadership structures that
 call into question Tehran's claims to be exclusively interested in the
 peaceful use of the technology.*

 It was probably the last attempt to defuse the nuclear dispute with
 Tehran without having to turn to dramatic new sanctions or military
 action. The plan, devised at the White House in October, had Russian and
 Chinese support and came with the seal of approval of the US president.
 It was clearly a Barack Obama operation.


 Under the plan, Iran would send a large share of its low enriched
 uranium abroad, all at once, for a period of one year, receiving
 internationally monitored quantities of nuclear fuel elements in return.
 It was a deal that provided benefits for all sides. The Iranians would
 have enough material for what they claim is their civilian nuclear
 program, as well as for scientific experiments, and the world could be
 assured that Tehran would not be left with enough fissile material for
 its secret domestic uranium enrichment program -- and for what the West
 assumes is the building of a nuclear bomb.


         PHOTO GALLERY

     * &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;
     * &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;
     * &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;


 3  Photos
 *Photo Gallery:* Iran's Nuclear Program
 &lt;http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-51080.html&gt;


 Tehran's leaders initially agreed to the proposal "in principle." But
 for weeks they put off the international community with vague allusions
 to a "final response," and when that response finally materialized, it
 came in the form of a "counter-proposal." Under this proposal, Tehran
 insisted that the exchange could not take place all at once, but only in
 stages, and that the material would not be sent abroad. Instead, Tehran
 wanted the exchange to take place in Iran.

 Once again, the Iranian leadership has rebuffed the West with phony
 promises of its willingness to compromise. The government in Tehran
 officially rejected the nuclear exchange plan last Tuesday. To make
 matters worse, after the West's discovery of a secret uranium enrichment
 plant near Qom, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad defiantly announced that
 he would never give in, and in fact would build 10 more enrichment
 plants instead.

 *Highly Volatile Material*

 But officials in Washington and European capitals are currently not as
 concerned about these cocky, unrealistic announcements as they are about
 intelligence reports based on sources within Iran and information from
 high-ranking defectors. The new information, say American experts, will
 likely prompt the US government to reassess the risks coming from the
 mullah-controlled country in the coming days and raise the alarm level
 from yellow to red. Skeptics who in the past, sometimes justifiably so,
 treated alarmist reports as Israeli propaganda, are also extremely
 worried. They include the experts from the United Nations International
 Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whose goal is prevent the spread of nuclear
 weapons.

 After an extensive internal investigation, IAEA officials concluded that
 a computer obtained from Iran years ago contains highly volatile
 material. The laptop reached the Americans through Germany's foreign
 intelligence agency, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), and was then
 passed on to the IAEA in Vienna.

 Reports by Ali Reza Asgari, Iran's former deputy defense minister who
 managed to defect to the United States, where he was given a new
 identity, proved to be just as informative. Nuclear scientist Shahram
 Amiri, who "disappeared" during a pilgrimage to Mecca in June 2009, is
 also believed to have particularly valuable information. The Iranian
 authorities accused Saudi Arabia and the United States of kidnapping the
 expert, but it is more likely that he defected.

 Iran's government has come under pressure as a result of the new
 charges. They center on the question of who exactly is responsible for
 the country's nuclear program -- and what this says about its true
 nature. The government has consistently told the IAEA that the only
 agency involved in uranium enrichment is the National Energy Council,
 and that its work was exclusively dedicated to the peaceful use of the
 technology.

 But if the claims are true that have been made in an intelligence
 dossier currently under review in diplomatic circles in Washington,
 Vienna, Tel Aviv and Berlin, portions of which SPIEGEL has obtained,
 this is a half-truth at best.

 According to the classified document, there is a secret military branch
 of Iran's nuclear research program that answers to the Defense Ministry
 and has clandestine structures. The officials who have read the dossier
 conclude that the government in Tehran is serious about developing a
 bomb, and that its plans are well advanced. There are two names that
 appear again and again in the documents, particularly in connection with
 the secret weapons program: Kamran Daneshjoo and Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.

 *Secret Heart of Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program*

 Daneshjoo, 52, Iran's new minister of science, research and technology,
 is also responsible for the country's nuclear energy agency, and he is
 seen as a close ally of Ahmadinejad. Opposition leaders say he is a
 hardliner who was partly responsible for the apparently rigged
 presidential election in June. Daneshjoo's biography includes only
 marginal references to his possible nuclear expertise. In describing
 himself, the man with the steely-gray beard writes that he studied
 engineering in the British city of Manchester, and then spent several
 years working at a Tehran "Center for Aviation Technology." Western
 experts believe that this center developed into a sub-organization of
 the Defense Ministry known as the FEDAT, an acronym for the "Department
 for Expanded High-Technology Applications" -- the secret heart of Iran's
 nuclear weapons program. The head of that organization is Mohsen
 Fakhrizadeh, 48, an officer in the Revolutionary Guard and a professor
 at Tehran's Imam Hossein University.

 Western intelligence agencies believe that although the nuclear energy
 agency and the FEDAT compete in some areas, they have agreed to a
 division of labor on the central issue of nuclear weapons research, with
 the nuclear agency primarily supervising uranium enrichment while the
 FEDAT is involved in the construction of a nuclear warhead to be used in
 Iran's Shahab missiles. Experts believe that Iran's scientists could
 produce a primitive, truck-sized version of the bomb this year, but that
 it would have to be compressed to a size that would fit into a nuclear
 warhead to yield the strategic threat potential that has Israel and the
 West so alarmed -- and that they could reach that stage by sometime
 between 2012 and 2014.

 The Iranians are believed to have conducted non-nuclear tests of a
 detonating mechanism for a nuclear bomb more than six years ago. The
 challenge in the technology is to uniformly ignite the conventional
 explosives surrounding the uranium core -- which is needed to produce
 the desired chain reaction. It is believed that the test series was
 conducted with a warhead encased in aluminum. In other words, everything
 but the core was "real." According to the reports, the Tehran engineers
 used thin fibers and a measuring circuit board in place of the fissile
 material. This enabled them to measure the shock waves and photograph
 flashes that simulate the detonation of a nuclear bomb with some degree
 of accuracy. The results were apparently so encouraging that the Iranian
 government has since classified the technology as "feasible."

 SPIEGEL obtained access to a FEDAT organizational chart and a list of
 the names of scientists working for the agency. The Vienna-based IAEA
 also has these documents, but the Iranian president claims that they are
 forged and are being used to discredit his country. After reporting two
 years ago that the Iranians had frozen their nuclear weapons research in
 2003, the CIA and other intelligence agencies will probably paint a
 significantly more sobering scenario just as the UN Security Council is
 considering tougher sanctions against Iran.

 *Mulling Sanctions*

 When France assumes the Council's rotating chairmanship in February,
 Washington could push for a showdown. While Moscow is not ruling out
 additional punitive measures, China, which has negotiated billions in
 energy deals with Iran, is more likely to block such measures.

 China could, however, approve "smart" sanctions, such as travel
 restrictions for senior members of the Revolutionary Guard and nuclear
 scientists. Fakhrizadeh is already on a list of officials subject to
 such restrictions, and Daneshjoo could well be added in the future.

 But the West would presumably be on its own when enforcing sanctions
 that would be truly harmful to Iran -- and to its own, profitable trade
 relations with Tehran. The most effective trade weapon would be a fuel
 embargo. Because of a lack of refinery capacity Iran, which has the
 world's second-largest oil reserves, imports almost half of the gasoline
 it uses. Sanctions would trigger a sharp rise in the price of gasoline,
 inevitably leading to social unrest. Experts are divided over whether it
 would be directed against the unpopular regime or if the country's
 leaders could once again inflame the Iranian people against the "evil
    

 West."
  

 This leaves the military option. Apart from the political consequences
 and the possibility of counter-attacks, bombing Iran's nuclear
 facilities would be extremely difficult. The nuclear experts have
 literally buried themselves and their facilities underground, in
 locations that would be virtually impossible to reach with conventional
 weapons.

 While even Israeli experts are skeptical over how much damage bombing
 the facilities could do to the nuclear program, the normally levelheaded
 US General David Petraeus sounded downright belligerent when asked
 whether the Iranian nuclear facilities could be attacked militarily.
 "Well, they certainly can be bombed," he said just two weeks ago in
 Washington.

 /Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan/

    

  

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-01-25 19:58:31</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-11 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1728760_re-thoughts-on-der-spiegel-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1730355</id>
    <title>Re: ANALYSIS FOR COMMENT - BULGARIA/RUSSIA: Anti-Russian Bulgaria?
 Don't get your hopes up!
</title>
    <description>   It won't... they know why he is doing them... he is trying to manuver his
   own people into control of those enterprises. They know that if he screws
   around his friend from the Moscow mob will pull him back in line.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Kendra Vessels" &lt;kendra.vessels@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, July 13, 2009 3:07:01 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re: ANALYSIS FOR COMMENT - BULGARIA/RUSSIA: Anti-Russian
   Bulgaria? Don't get your hopes up!

   Great job in explaining why Bulgaria and Russia need one another-
   geopolitically- but is Russia willing to give Borisov wiggle room to gain
   control of these projects and other aspects of the Sofia-Moscow
   relationship? Might help to add a couple of sentences on how Russia will
   deal with Borisov's moves.

   Marko Papic wrote:

     I had to cut out a LOT of info we have on Borisov simply because I am
     not sure which bits could get us into legal trouble. Nonetheless, a lot
     of that stuff is also weedy, so I think a broader geopolitical
     discussion is not out of place.

     Newly elected Prime Minister of Bulgaria, Boyko Borisov, has in a letter
     on July 13 asked the Economy and Energy Minister Petar Dimitrov to
     temporarily freeze the construction of the Belene nuclear power plant
     and the development of the South Stream natural gas pipeline project.
     Borisov claimed in the letter that the Bulgarian state owned companies
     involved in the two projects were not taking into account the economic
     crisis in their operations, hinting at financial malfeasance. Both the
     Belene nuclear power plant and the South Stream project are being
     developed in cooperation with Russian state owned enterprises,
     Atomstroyexport and Gazprom respectively.

     Russian influence in Bulgaria has always been considered as robust and
     the government of outgoing prime minister Sergei Stanishev did nothing
     to dispel that notion, despite Sofiaa**s entry into the EU in 2007 under
     his leadership and the fact that it had been a member of NATO since
     2004. Bulgariaa**s relatively eager participation in the South Stream
     project a** Russian alternative to the EUa**s Nabucco project a** has
     been lauded as an example of the close collaboration between Moscow and
     Sofia and proof of Bulgariaa**s a**Trojan Horsea** status within the
     Western Alliance.

     Borisova**s actions, one of his first as incoming prime minister, to
     freeze progress on the two major Russian projects within Bulgaria seem
     to suggest that he will stick to his campaign promise to play by a**EU
     rulesa** on energy policy and reverse his opponenta**s policies of
     cozying up to Russia. He also campaigned that he would not be beholden
     to Moscow and that he would treat Russia just like any other power, thus
     ending the special relationship enjoyed by Sofia and Moscow under
     Stanisheva**s government.

     However, the warm relations between Bulgaria and Russia are not a modern
     phenomenon, nor are they beholden to any particular governmenta**s
     policies. The relationship is rooted in geopolitics and has withstood
     the test of time from the 19th Century until today.

     Bulgaria owes its independence from the Ottoman Empire in late 19th
     Century to Russia which fought the Russo-Turkish War with the intent of
     creating a a**Greater Bulgariaa** with sea access in both the Black Sea
     and the Aegean Sea. The Russian plan for an enlarged Bulgaria, which
     would have given Russia friendly ports in the Mediterranean, backfired
     by alarming Western powers who were forced to intervene, albeit
     diplomatically, during the 1878 Berlin Congress and thus greatly reduced
     Bulgariaa**s territory.

     Russia and Bulgaria continued to have a strong relationship throughout
     the 20th Century despite Bulgariaa**s decision to side with the Central
     Powers in the First World War and subsequently the Axis in the Second.
     As an example of its strong link to Moscow, Bulgaria refused to join the
     attack against the Soviet Union despite being officially allied with
     Nazi Germany. The subsequent communist period in Bulgaria, while not
     remembered with nostalgia, does not elicit the same kind of knee jerk
     anti-Russian feelings as in much the rest of Central and Eastern Europe.
     Bulgaria was a loyal member of the Soviet Bloc with no uprisings against
     Moscowa**s regional hegemony.

     The oft stated reason for Bulgariaa**s affinity towards Russia are the
     cultural and religious ties between the two countries and these
     certainly work well to grease the wheels of the relationship.  However,
     in reality, Bulgariaa**s interests are rooted in its geopolitical
     circumstances. Surrounded by entities who have historically been
     stronger and sometimes outright aggressive towards it -- namely
     Turkey/Ottoman Empire to the South, Romania to the north and
     Yugoslavia/Serbia to the West, Bulgaria has often relied on Russia to
     play the role of its protector and champion in the region.  Meanwhile,
     from the Russian perspective, Bulgaria affords it a foothold in the
     Balkans, much more reliable than the often too independently minded
     Serbia and Romania, both of which had plans of their own to become
     regional hegemons. 

     Borisova**s initial moves against Russian projects in Bulgaria should
     therefore not be taken to signal a fundamental shift in Bulgariaa**s
     relations with Russia. Borisova**s government may temper some of the
     overt signs of this strong relationship, but his move to freeze progress
     on South Stream and the Belene power plant is more likely about rooting
     out his predecessora**s control of those lucrative projects than about
     fundamentally moving Bulgaria away from Russia.  Once Borisov feels that
     he and his power base are sufficiently in control of all aspects of the
     Sofia-Moscow relationship, it is very likely that Bulgaria will continue
     to be one of Russia's strongest allies within the EU and NATO. 
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1730355_re-analysis-for-comment-bulgaria-russia-anti-russian.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1730613</id>
    <title>Re: FOR QUICK COMMENT - IRAQ - U.S. and Arab Allies Target Iran
</title>
    <description>   First, the whole idea that Iran wants to destabilize Iraq is based on
   certain conditions in which Iran is loosing and needs to hit back at the
   U.S. That has long ceased to be the case. Iran is not losing and for it to
   win it needs a stable Iraq where the Shia dominate and the Sunnis remain
   marginal players.

   Second, we are not saying U.S. wants govt collapse in Iraq. But if
   al-Maliki, Shia , and the Iranians are feeling the heat there then unrest
   works to the Saudi advantage and to a certain extent (assuming it can be
   managed) works to the American benefit as well. Neither wants Iran
   comfortable to where it can continue to keep pushing deeper and deeper
   into the Arab world. The way to prevent this is to keep Iran struggling in
   Iraq.

   On 3/3/2011 5:19 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     Iran destabilizing Iraq works against US
     now all of a sudden this is saying US destabilizing Iraq works against
     Iran
     that's a giant contradiction that can't be looked over.  It's hard to
     see the US pushing for Sunni-led riots and govt collapse in iraq when it
     is just a few months away from complete withdrawal.
      what are allawi's other motives? how did those other resignations fit
     in?  do we have any insight on who allawi has been talking to recently
     and what he's thinking?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Kamran Bokhari" &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: analysts@stratfor.com
     Sent: Thursday, March 3, 2011 4:12:47 PM
     Subject: Re: FOR QUICK COMMENT - IRAQ - U.S. and Arab Allies Target Iran

     Yes, the U.S. may not be involved. But the Iranians don't want
     instability either. They want U.S. forces out so they can do as they
     please. So, Allawi upsetting the government undermines Iranian
     interests. They need Iraq to be calm so that they can try and take
     advantage of the opportunities on the other side of the PG.

     On 3/3/2011 5:03 PM, George Friedman wrote:

       What you are saying here that the United States wants to destabilize
       Iraq in order to block Iran.  I do not think this is US policy.  It
       may be a Saudi idea, but the idea that the United States has reached
       the point that it wants instability in Iraq just isn't there yet. 
       What Allawi does or doesn't do is not an indicator of what the United
       States is planning.  The American view is that the more instability
       there is in Iraq increases Iranian power because the U.S. is not in a
       position to step in and stabilize the situation.  Even more important,
       the United States has 50,000 troops there and does not want them
       targeted by Iranian militias.  So I don't think you can move from
       Allawi (an increasingly irrelevant figure) acting in a certain way and
       U.S. policy.

       On 03/03/11 15:39 , Reva Bhalla wrote:

         have a lot of questions, main one at the end. i just dont see how
         the US would want to create a crisis in Iraq with the sunnis leading
         the unrest when it's trying to withdraw

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: "Maverick Fisher" &lt;fisher@stratfor.com&gt;
         To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
         Sent: Thursday, March 3, 2011 3:11:35 PM
         Subject: FOR QUICK COMMENT - IRAQ - U.S. and Arab Allies Target Iran

         Teaser

          

         Iyad Allawi's decision not to participate in a body designed to
         foster the inclusion of Sunnis in the Iraqi government could create
         problems for Iran.

          

         Allawi's Decision and Iran's Challenge

          

         Summary

          

         Iyad Allawi, the head of al-Iraqiyah bloc, the leading party
         representing Sunni interests, announced March 2 that he would not
         lead the proposed National Council for Strategic Policies (NCSP).
         The NCSP had been intended to give Sunnis more of a stake in Iraq's
         Shiite-dominated government. The move need to explain in this
         summary in what way this is bad for Iran, ie. what is the effect of
         Allawi not playing ball. otherwise it sounds a bit contradictory
          comes as Iraq -- like many other countries in the region -- faces
         protests seeking better governance. Allawi's move to exploit the
         unrest probably is a i would say 'could be.' we tend to give the US
         credit for a lot of moves in iraq but im not always convinced US is
         scheming these things every time. way for the United States and
         Saudi Arabia to weaken the Iranian position in Iraq.

          

         Analysis

          

         Former interim Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, a Shi'i who leads
         the centrist overwhelmingly Sunni party al-Iraqiyah, announced March
         2 that he is no longer interested in leading the National Council
         for Strategic Policies (NCSP).

          

         Allawi's move comes amid protests in Iraq like those sweeping many
         other countries in the region demanding reform. It the move? weakens
         the Shiite-led al-Maliki government how?, thereby putting Iran on
         the defensive in an area it had considered locked down in its
         struggle with the United States and its Gulf Arab allies. This means
         Iran will have fewer resources to devote to stoking unrest in other
         theaters like Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.

          

         Just a few weeks before popular unrest swept through the Arab world,
         Iran was able to solidify its interests in Iraq via the installation
         of the strongest Shiite-dominated government in Iraq in modern
         times. As protests gathered steam in Egypt, Tehran then engineered
         the toppling of the pro-Western, pro-Saudi Saudi-backed government
         in Lebanon  huh? that happened before the Egypt protests. and though
         iran likely had a hand in it through hezbollah, wouldn't necessarily
         say they alone engineered it. And now, with protests spreading
         throughout the Arabian Peninsula, the Islamic Republic sees an
         opportunity to project power across the Persian Gulf into the
         strongest bastion of pro-western Arabs.

          

         The United States and its Arab allies, and especially Saudi Arabia,
         greatly fear Iran's potential moves in the Gulf Arab states. U.S.
         Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said March 2 that Iran is
         directly or indirectly communicating with opposition groups in
         Egypt, Bahrain and Yemen in an attempt to influence the outcome of
         events, and that in response the United States is making diplomatic
         and other contacts of its own with opposition groups across the
         Middle East and North Africa. This is the first public
         acknowledgment by the US that Iran has a hand in the regional
         unrest.

          

         But Riyadh and Washington have few good counters to Tehran.
         Sectarian demographics coupled with the general demand for democracy
         works against the United States and Saudi Arabia. More promising
         would be using the regional unrest as an opportunity to stir up the
         Iranian opposition Green Movement and Iran's ethnic minorities,
         especially the Baluchi-Sunnis, to create unrest in Iran. need to
         explain the BUT here -- attempts to do so in the past didnt really
         get anywhere.  The best, most practical, option, however is
         undermining Iranian interests in Iraq.

          

         Iraq currently faces several challenges that the United States and
         Saudi Arabia could exacerbate. Protesters demanding that the
         Shiite-dominated government do a better job are creating unrest in
         Iraq. Appointments to head the security ministries in Iraq's new
         government have not been finalized. And the perennial problem of the
         Sunni role in post-invasion Iraq also remains.

          

         The NSCP, designed to give Sunnis more of a stake in the
         Shiite-dominated post-Baathist republic and thus remove the
         incentive for insurgency, was proposed to help settle this last
         question. Allawi's announcement that he is no longer interested in
         leading the NCSP deals a strong blow to efforts to get Sunnis to buy
         in to the new government. this is confusing. we're talking about the
         US/Saudi interest in getting the sunnis a stake. then Allawi is
         going against that goal by not allowing the sunnis to get a stake.
         need to explain this disconnect Allawi is simultaneously working to
         exploit the intra-Shiite dynamic to his advantage still unclear what
         Allawi's strategic aim is. that really needs to be explained up
         front. To this end, he is reaching out to top Iraqi cleric Ayatollah
         Ali al-Sistani, and more important, to radical Iraqi Shiite leader
         Muqtada al-Sadr. Allawi hops al-Sadr will have to speak against the
         government to placate his followers, who are largely poor and fed up
         with the Iraqi governments' failure to deliver stability and
         propserity. To this end, Allawi hopes to tap into al-Sadr's desire
         to become the most powerful Shiite bloc in Iraq.  in other words
         allawi is using sadr to amplify the protests?   can that be
         explained/written more clearly

          

         While Allawi's bloc says it will continue to remain in parliament,
         its moves on the NCSP and its overtures to al-Sadrites weaken the
         Iraqi government by cutting into its Sunni support and potentially
         dividing the Iraqi Shia. point needs to be waaay up front Washington
         and Riyadh probably have been could be encouraging Allawi to
         undermine the al-Maliki government, because this by extension
         weakens Iran's hand. Their ultimate goal is shaking Iran's
         confidence that it has Iraq locked down and thus forcing Tehran to
         back off from its moves to promote instability in the Gulf Arab
         countries, or at least forcing Tehran to the negotiating table.

          

         There are limits though to this strategy, however. Al-Sadr is
         aligned with Tehran, making him unlikely to jeopardize the Iraqi
         Shiite unity Iran benefits from in pursuit of his own partisan aims.
         And this means is that the Sunnis will have to emerge as the
         vanguard of the unrest. but that creates a HUGE problem for the US
         as well when the US is trying to withdraw from Iraq? that's the big
         and obvious question. so how does this necesarily work against Iran?
          i think we're taking a leap here in assuming this is part of a big
         US-Saudi plot to weaken Iran. where do the resignations fall in as
         well? The Iranians, however, are hoping that even the Sunnis will
         not want to tamper too much with the fragile Iraqi state, thereby
         helping Tehran maintain its interests in Iraq.

         --
         Maverick Fisher
         STRATFOR
         Director, Writers and Graphics
         T: 512-744-4322
         F: 512-744-4434
         maverick.fisher@stratfor.com
         www.stratfor.com

       --

       George Friedman

       Founder and CEO

       STRATFOR

       221 West 6th Street

       Suite 400

       Austin, Texas 78701

        

       Phone: 512-744-4319

       Fax: 512-744-4334

        

     --

   --
</description>
    <date>2011-03-03 23:24:56</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-05 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1730613_re-for-quick-comment-iraq-u-s-and-arab-allies-target-iran-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/6/6434_Signature.JPG</path><size>53193</size><md5></md5><sha1>5ee8f19bfa1ba0db5c4c413c3fe0d1731b650f71</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1731116</id>
    <title>research
</title>
    <description>9</description>
    <date>2011-03-14 15:03:26</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-07 05:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1731116_research-.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/126/126917_European Energy Profiles - Nuclear Energy Data.xls</path><size>206336</size><md5></md5><sha1>91eadcf0b4ea26a33b4fb381372eba6aaf47cefe</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1736239</id>
    <title>Re: Tirana update
</title>
    <description>   Is this a U.S. or an Albanian LE source?

   And if U.S., what is he doing with the opposition groups?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: burton@stratfor.com, "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "Tactical" &lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2011 1:40:14 PM
   Subject: Re: Tirana update

   I think this is worth being written up as a piece ahead of tomorrow's
   protests.

   Is it possible to publish this?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: burton@stratfor.com
   To: "Analysts" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;, "Tactical" &lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2011 1:36:04 PM
   Subject: Tirana update

   From TrapWire --

   Just in from a contact (Former senior law enforcement officer with direct
   access to Opposition party members).

    

   Tirana : 22 Jan 2011 (Situation at 1930 local)

    

   a**         Situation today calm, as Govt declared day of mourning for the
   "martyrs" (Berisha's words).

   a**         The Opposition has been hold-up all day today in Mayor Edi
   Rama's office discussing next steps. There is some reluctance on their
   part as to whether tomorrow's protest should proceed as planned. They have
   apparently received word that many protesters intend to come armed to
   protect themselves against the police.  Rama has commented privately he
   may lead the protest to try and keep them peaceful.

   a**         Despite this, the Opposition continues to insist they will not
   stop actions against the current regime until Berisha resigns. In
   response, Berisha has declared that "anyone touching an official
   government building will meet the same fate as the protestors yesterday."

   a**         Rumblings have started in other major cities throughout
   Albania re. sympathetic protests. Most notably Shkoder, Durres and
   Gjirokaster.

   a**         There are reports of a handful of arrests of senior police
   officials following yesterday's incident. Investigation is now underway as
   to who gave the order to fire upon the crowds.

   a**         Rumors continue to spread within the population that agents of
   the State Intelligence Service (SHISH) had infiltrated the crowds and
   provoked yesterday's violence. (Comment: No proof of this, but would not
   be the first time SHISH was used in this capacity).

   a**         Note: Great deal of fear and apprehension amongst the
   populace, particularly in Tirana. Most still have vivid memories of '90
   and '97. Average Albanian is still well armed following the ransacking of
   weapons depots in '97 and an escalation in violence is not unthinkable.

    

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1736239_re-tirana-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>fred.burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1737548</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - BRAZIL - national security, terrorism, drugs, Argentina,
	etc.
</title>
    <description>   will do.  i haven't heard that much talk of Peru so far but i'll ask more
   about that.
   Also, props to our graphics team. The Cabinet of Institutional Security
   and the Brazilian generals I talked to say they really love our maps. we
   talked about working together on some map-making projects in the future
   On Jan 6, 2011, at 12:12 PM, Allison Fedirka wrote:

     I get the obsession over Bolivia.  If you get a chance, mind asking
     about how Peru (and perhaps Colombia fit in to this).  Brazil is heavily
     invested in Peru's energy sector and the countries are building several
     hydroelectric plants along their common border.  Also, the two countries
     are working on/finishing up an international highway that connects the
     two countries.

       well they also stress energy integration as well. So for example, the
       nat gas that they get from bolivia and the infrastructure they're
       building around those projects. They are obsessed with Bolivia and
       making sure no one does anything to push Bolivia to edge of secession.
        I think they see access to the Pacific as an integral part to this
       broader South American integration goal.  They do keep stressing the
       economic driver behind it, but perhaps that's more of a way to make
       these extensions appear less imperial like..? 
       I'll probe deeper, though
       On Jan 6, 2011, at 12:01 PM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

         in the future if you get into dilma's office, swipe me a paperweight

         question on this pacific interest of theirs:

         it makes pol/mil/control sense to me, but not really any econ sense

         its far far far far cheaper to ship stuff by water around south
         america to asia than it would be to do so by road/rail across the
         continent, over the andes and down to chile and then have it shipped
         out from the atlantic ports (which are within spitting distance of
         almost all of brazil's population

         this doesn't mean i don't think those connections don't make sense
         -- they are how you establish/transmit political/cultural domination
         -- im just saying that any economic rationale is a distant third in
         terms of importance

         btw - brazil has always always always been obsessed about infra,
         which makes sense considering their lack of access to useful river
         systems, but its interesting to see them extend that obsession that
         far
         anywho, any realization of this from your talks with them?

         On 1/6/2011 10:03 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

           Just came from a couple really cool meetings at the Palacio
           Planalto (presidential palace.)  They gave me a full tour and i
           got to go right up to Dilma's office, but she was in a meeting.
           Wanted to tell her hello on behalf of Stratfor, oh well.
           My first meeting was held in the actual Situation Room, where all
           the military, intel, security people come together to deal with
           national security issues.  I kind of got the feeling that Brazil
           doesn't have to deal with these kinds of things too often. They
           said during Lula's time, they met 64 times. Really cool maps all
           over the place. They gave me as a gift this beautiful map of the
           world with Brasilia in the center (ambitious much? haha)  This
           meeting was with a diplomat friend who is now working in the
           president's office and two ministers/secretaries of the GSI
           (cabinet of institutional security.)  All, including General Elito
           Sequeiro - the chief of GSI, who I met later in his office, know
           and read Stratfor regularly. Literally, they were telling me news
           of what they had read on stratfor this morning and were saying
           that practically everyone there is a member.
           We talked about a range of issues... heard a lot of similar ideas
           that I've included in previous insights. The minister began by
           writing down for the number of years (140) and days since Brazil
           has been in a war with its neighbors. It was almost as if they are
           boasting. I've heard this line several times before - we have 10
           neighbors, yet we are at peace with all of them. One even quipped,
           'but we don't get nobel peace prize for this' -- an obvious
           reference to our own commander in chief who is now leading two
           wars in the world.
           So the emphasis, again, is about keeping the peace.  They
           emphasized again that Brazil does not at all want to be seen as an
           imperial power in any sense. I get the impression that they sort
           of look down on their Spanish counterparts in the sense that all
           of them have problems with each other on their borders, but look
           at a map of brazil and with the exception of Acre (which fell into
           Brazil's lap from Bolivia) and the borders since colonial times
           are unchanged.
           I talked to them about how I want to create a map of the Brazilian
           population migration between Bolivia, Paraguay and Uruguay. The
           census numbers are coming in the next couple weeks and they will
           get them to us, along with the academics who focus exclusively on
           this issue. The concept I want to emphasize at Stratfor is that
           where Brazil faces a major language/cultural/social barrier to the
           Spanish-speaking world, it can overcome with population migration,
           which is occurring at an accelerated pace. They acknowledge that
           Brazilian population growth has stopped and so now they are
           looking to import immigrant labor from neighboring states.  There
           is a deep concern for the sustainability of Brazilian industry and
           the expansion of a consumer market. They realize Mercosur is not
           working out. One said, so we will look to the alternative. I said,
           like what?  they mentioned NAFTA, even the EU.  This may be a big
           stretch, but the big idea is that they want access to markets,
           they especially want access to the Pacific (again, why brazilian
           relations with Chile and why the infrastructural links through
           Bolivia are so key.)  I find it funny in a way that Brazil always
           needs to be part of some sort of 'club.'  I suggested to them,
           given the very unique position Brazil is in now, with Argentina
           self-destructing and Brazil on the rise, that Brazil could form a
           new grouping, one that suits Brazil's needs first and foremost (i
           was drawing an example to Germany dominating the EU's financial
           matters post-financial crisis.)  
           Given their responses, and the responses I've gotten from others,
           I get the feeling that Brazil still has this complex. They aren't
           ready to think of themselves as a regional leader in that sense.
            They are still looking to other regional groups.  I think this
           will change with time.
           I asked about Brazil's military posture with Argentina, Again, the
           message they stress is about strategic coordination, partnership,
           a model for peace, etc.  THis is why Dilma is very symbolically
           making her first trip abroad to Argentina - to show that Brazil is
           serious about this continued close cooperation. They even say that
           while Arg is a mess now, they will recover. THey have the
           education levels, the resources, everything they need to
           resuscitate themselves. They bring up the line that was used in
           the 19th century in France - 'rich as an Argentine.' Obviously
           that's an extremely outdated concept now, but it sticks with
           Brazilians. What amazes me is that Brazilians don't even seem at
           all concerned about a re-emergence of Argentina. They see it as
           good for the Brazilian market. They also think they can afford to
           shift more troops away from the south to the Amazon.
           Speaking of the Amazon, they told me that now the postings to the
           Amazon are now reserved for high-ranking officers (I thought it
           was punishment!)  They are totally transforming how they are
           dealing with the Amazon. I've been invited to go out to a miltiary
           post in the Amazon next time, which I am definitely going to do.
           This brought us to the patrols along the borderland to guard
           against drug traffickers. They admit it's a huge problem. The
           corruption at these posts is more concentrated with the police
           than the military. 
           An interesting point one made on precursor chemicals -- he said
           one thing Brazil has done very well is control the quality of
           precursor chemicals entering the country. So, the cocaine being
           produced in Boliva, for example, is not the Grade A stuff that
           buyers in NYC want.  Instead it's lower grade stuff, crack, that
           will sell in Sao Paulo. So that's the unintended consequence for
           them -- cheaper, lower value drugs permeating the Brazilian
           market.  I brought up the idea of precursor chemicals coming into
           MX from China. He said he hadn't seen anything like that down here
           yet.  Most of the drug transport comes overland by trucks -- even
           in the smallest villages you have people who become part fo the
           supply chain, selling gasoline in exchange for allowing access
           through these small towns.
           The issue of air transport is a big problem for them.  Macedo
           Soares said we have a law that allows us to shoot down planes, but
           we can't apply it because of the United States (this was a major
           theme in the Wikileaks for anyone that read the Brazil cables.)
            This is a big source of frustration between the US and Brazil.
            They say it's ridiculous that Brazil and the US have the same
           strategic interest in stopping drugs, but the US won't allow them
           to shoot down the planes. They say it's too hard to follow the
           planes and try to interdict them at all the makeshift landing
           strips these groups have. 
           I brought up the issue of terrrorism, since Macedo Soares is
           pretty much the only Brazilian that was cited in the Wikileaks.  I
           asked him if it caused any trouble for him and he laughed and
           said, 'only jealousy!'  Apparently a lot of the other Brazilian
           officials were seriously jealous that he got all the fame, haha.
           Brazil defines terrorism in its constitution, and believes that is
           good enough. The big issue for Brazil is that it REALLY does not
           want to attract attention to itself as a terrorist target. They
           want to stay as low profile as possible. In that sense, Wikileaks
           really screwed with that strategy.  Brazil seems pretty obstinate
           in that they won't develop a terrorism list like the United STates
           or anything like that. As Macedo Soares told me, we capture plenty
           of 'terrorists' in Sao Paulo -- people in AQ, Hezbollah, even
           people connected to the 9/11 attacks. But we don't want to boast
           about it and we don't want the attention. It doesn't serve our
           interests, and we don't want the US to keep pushing us on this.
            They also use the excuse that developing such a terrorism brand
           could then be abused and used toward those groups that fight for
           the landless, etc.
           I asked if the GSI felt confident in its ability to actually
           surveil and capture a lot of these real 'terrorists.'  The
           response didn't look very confident. He said pretty much that it's
           just to hard. Sao Paulo has a huge foreign population. Borders are
           hard to control. That's the Brazilian attitude toward this thing.
           I can see now why this causes a lot of heart burn for the US.
            Also, considering how lax Brazil is about security at the
           airports, military installations, even at the presidential palace,
           i dont get the idea that Brazil is very aggressive about this
           threat. THey even acknowledge that maybe Brazil could become a
           target, as if could be inevitable. They say there is an Israeli
           disco in SP that is a perfect target, for example
           They also seem to think that Argentina brought the Hezbollah
           bombings on itself by not being subtle about its foreign policy.
           That's a picture of the Cathedral and me in front of the palace,.
            Brasilia is the strangest city I've ever been to.  It's so
           un-Brazilian. The city is flat, flat, flat -- made for bureaucrats
           in the 1950s. The city planner and architect is 103 years old,
           still living, and just got married 2 years ago (hah!)  He is
           really famous for this ultra, ultra modern, austere design.  No
           color, just huge spaces. The whole city is like being in a museum.
            It's laid out very oddly as well -- everything lies in one long
           stretch -- airport, then the banks and tv towers, then a cluster
           of all the hotels, then the cathedral, then all the ministries
           lined up, supreme court, congress and the presidential palace at
           the end. You could never got lost here.
           Off to Porto Alegre in the deep south tonight, which should be
           completely different.
           &lt;mime-attachment.jpeg&gt;
           &lt;mime-attachment.jpeg&gt;
</description>
    <date>2011-01-06 19:16:30</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-26 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1737548_re-insight-brazil-national-security-terrorism-drugs.html</permalink>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1738709</id>
    <title>G3 - GERMANY - Berlin asks NATO partners to keep quiet on deadly
 bombing
</title>
    <description>   Berlin asks NATO partners to keep quiet on deadly bombing

   Published: 11 Sep 09 09:00 CET
   Online: http://www.thelocal.de/national/20090911-21857.html

   The German government has issued a round of formal diplomatic protests to
   fellow NATO countries, asking them to refrain from criticising a
   controversial air strike called by the Bundeswehr in Afghanistan last
   week.

   The Foreign Ministry told daily Financial Times Deutschland on Friday that
   German ambassadors had issued the demarches in NATO allied countries. The
   formal protests asked that officials wait until the NATO probe of the
   incident had concluded before commenting on the deadly bombing.

   In Paris the protest was not well-received, the paper said.

   a**What should a minister say if such an attack kills 80 and there are
   civilians among them? Nothing?a** an unnamed diplomat told the paper.

   On Tuesday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel rejected a**prejudgementa** of
   the air strike in a speech to parliament.

   Merkel assured the bombing of two fuel trucks in the northern part of the
   country last Friday would be thoroughly investigated amid concerns it
   caused scores of civilian casualties.

   She lashed out at widespread criticism by many of Germanya**s closes
   allies before NATO's International Security Assistance Force (ISAF)
   completed its investigation of the incident.

   a**I wona**t tolerate that either here at home or abroad,a** she said.

   The German government and military have faced immense pressure in recent
   days after Col. Georg Klein called in NATO air support to destroy two fuel
   tankers hijacked by the Taliban near the Afghan city of Kunduz. Berlin at
   first contended that only Islamist insurgents had been killed in the air
   strike, but ISAF announced shortly after Merkel's speech that there had
   been an unspecified number of civilian victims.

   French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner has described the strike as a
   "big mistake" while Afghan President Hamid Karzai blasted the German
   commander's call in an interview with French daily Le Figaro: "What an
   error of judgement!"

   http://www.thelocal.de/national/20090911-21857.html

    
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-08 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1738709_g3-germany-berlin-asks-nato-partners-to-keep-quiet-on-deadly.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1739377</id>
    <title>[Eurasia] [Fwd: INSIGHT - RUSSIA - Iskander Missile]
</title>
    <description>   Just to remind everyone about the Iskander info from December.

   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: INSIGHT - RUSSIA - Iskander Missile                               
      Date: Sun, 13 Dec 2009 15:33:19 -0600                                   
      From: Lauren Goodrich &lt;goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;                           
        To: 'Secure List' &lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;, George Friedman              
            &lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;                                          

   CODE: RU153
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources Moscow
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Russia's Defense Council (group of defense
   specialists from Ministry, Militaries &amp; GRU) that report to Puty
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: 2
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: high
   HANDLER: Lauren

   The Iskandar is of great use to Russia and much focus. It has been highly
   successful both technologically and strategically. They consider the
   Iskander the most effective and deadly nonstrategic (and even perhaps
   strategic) ballistic missile in existence.
    
   It is better than the Oka, which worried the US so much because of its
   accuracy. But the Iskander is considered so much better. INF wiped out the
   Oka, but the Iskander falls underneath the INF-for now. The Oka was/is to
   replace the Elbrus, Tochka and Tockka-U and now the Iskandar replaces them
   both, but with a new and more modern highly accurate propellant of a
   short-range ballistic missile with a range of 500 km. Its accuracy is now
   averaging of 10 meters or better. Its high velocity allows the missile to
   penetrate antimissile defenses. It can fly low and make evasive maneuvers
   in order to prevent interception by surface air missiles. It has
   conventional warhead options and more recently Russia has been toying with
   adding a nuclear warhead (but not officially).
    
   There are two types of Iskanders. The 9K723 Iskander-M that is now
   deployed in Russia and the 9K720 Iskander-E that is for export. The
   former's range is of 450-500 km and the latter is of 280 km because of the
   MTCR limits.
    
   [he went on about the delivery vehicles with a ton of technical jargon I
   am  too tired to translate, but will if you're interested].
    
   Each Iskander operational battalions has two TEL reload vehicles, two
   command and control vehicles and a crew. Russia has created missile
   brigades for each system-this is new for Russia. (Each brigade ideally-in
   the future-- will have 3 missile battalions, with 12 TELs and 12
   transporter-load vehicles with a total of 48 ballistic missiles).
    
   The state tests for Iskander were done in 2004 and the batallions were
   formed and put into service by the end of 2007.
    
   Now the developers of the Iskander system are toying with further
   development of its warfighting capabilities, including the integration of
   the high-precision R-500 subsonic cruise missile. The R-500 is a more
   conventional version of the old Soviet 3M10 long-range cruise missile with
   a range of 2600 km, which was put on the Russian nuclear attack subs.
   These were eliminated also under INF-for now. This testing will be wrapped
   up by the end of 2009, since it has been successful thus far. After that
   it is a political decision in whether to put it into service, though 6
   missles with the R-500s are already ready to be implemented. 
    
   So at present everything that Russia has "implemented" falls under INF-but
   that seems to be a short time issue at present, which is why Russia is
   playing with the options.
    
   By the time 2015 rolls around, 60 Iskanders will have been produced and
   implemented.
    
   There are already 5 Iskander Missile Brigades in service and stationed
   across Russia.
   26th - Luga, near St. Petersburg (in training and implementation stage)
   92nd - in Kamenka, near Penza/Volga-Urals (done with training and
   implementation)
   103rd - in Ulan-Ude, in Siberia (in training and implementation stage)
   107th in Semistochni, near Birobidzhan/Far East (done with training and
   almost done with implementation)
   114th in Znamensk, near Astrakhan in the Northern Caucasus. (in training
   and implementation stage)
    
   These are the brigades that did have the Tochka and Tochka-U. The 92nd and
   107th were the first to get it and the 26th, 103rd and 114th are still
   currently being implemented and trained but should be completed by the end
   of 2011.
    
   Note that this does not include a Brigade in Kaliningrad, the two from
   Moscow district or the other Northern Caucasus brigades. These will have
   to wait until after the first 5 brigades are ready, trained and
   implemented. Also, the Kaliningrad decision is highly political, since it
   could reach into Germany or take out any American bmd system. If the R-500
   system were ever implemented, it would be able to take out targets all
   across Europe with highly precise accuracy-again, a political decision.
    
   The 630th Iskander Brigade - which trains the other Brigades - took part
   in the Russia-Georgia war. [LG: he wouldn't go further into how the
   Iskander was or the other missiles the Brigade uses were used in the
   war..... but I had heard of Iskanders possibly used against Georgian tank
   battalions in Gori, but never heard confirmation of such.... This seems
   like partial confirmation to me]. 
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-08-11 20:11:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1739377_-eurasia-fwd-insight-russia-iskander-missile-.html</permalink>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1740847</id>
    <title>FOR MEX WEEKLY Fwd: FROM MX1: on CDJ
</title>
    <description>   From MX1, could be useful for your weekly. 
   I took out some stuff at the top that was about the social strategy in
   Juarez. Please read to the end, he gets into the issues that are really
   central then. 
   Also, note that La Reforma had a very prominent oped about Mex joining
   NATO that MX1 said was not ignored or laughed at by the people in the
   govt. 
   If you have any further questions or need my help in any way, please call
   any time this weekend. 

   Begin forwarded message:

     On another point, a report came out stating that over 60 of the
     municipal cops that were fired from CDJ because of their corruption
     have been killed or arrested since they were let go.  As I recall,
     CISEN was suppose dto keep tabs on them in order to infiltrate some
     cartel heads or cells.  However, CISEN has recognized that 1) they
     never had the necesarry resources to do that and 2) When the
     strategy changed to focus on the local drug market, all assets were
     taken off tailing of the former cops.

     Yet another interesting development:  Rumors say that two very high
     ranking business leaders in CDJ directly told the Interior Minister
     that they wanted the government to strike a deal with the cartels.
     They said that it was the only way to do it, and curiously also
     mentioned that their companies had come to agreements with the
     cartels and were doing well as a result.  This is a very bad thing.
      When major business leaders are giving in to cartel demands, they
     pave the way for failure of the governement strategy.  The effects
     of their decisions cannot be underestimated, considering CDJ's
     status as one of the world's maquiladora capitals.  If cartels can
     shape the way businesses of that magnitude operate, then government
     is unlikely to find cooperation there.  The same rumor said that
     the Interior Minister told the private sector leaders that if they
     really wanted to help CDJ, they needed to give people jobs rather
     than help the cartels to move drugs across the border and hide
     behind corporate lines.

     Drug wise, here is the latest: we are finding more and more big
     shipments that seemed destined to go right through ports of entry.
     We are talking about major tons of cocaine and weed seized in some
     cases right on the internaitonal bridge, on the Mexican side.
     There is no question that CBP officers were in on it, particularly
     given the very overt nature of these shipments.  However, there are
     directives from Mexico City that are preventing our people from
     sharing that information because the Americans have been clear that
     they would handle that aspect on their own, and we should not
     interfere with what may already be an open investigation on the US
     side.

     The big deal right now with the drugs is the use of trains.  The
     cartels have been able to track exactly which cars go where and
     they are being very effective at getting those drugs into the US.
     Seizures in Mexico are up, but JTF and FBI are working with rail
     police to figure out exactly how it is that the cartels are able to
     show up at the right place at the right time to take shipments of
     drugs from under the cars of various trains.

     Finally, the important observation:  We are effectively at the
     start of a paradigm shift regarding sovereignty and how we see
     cooperation with the US.  When the General in charge of all
     military education said that Mexico could not do this alone and
     that US military and LE assistance was needed, no one shot him
     down.  He was told by the Minister of Defense to say what he did.
     Everyone in the high levels of government is starting to recognize
     that more US involvement is necesarry.  In the mid-levels, it
     sounds more like a crazed cry for help.  I just spoke to a PF
     subcommander who said "We dont need them to tell us what to do, we
     need them to come help us do it.  If they say they can take
     responsibility, then let's see how they react when they are in the
     field like we are".

     The statement was very much reminiscent of what Mexicans are
     starting to believe about the American war on drugs in the US: that
     it is a simulated war.  Nothing is being done about demand, and it
     had always pissed us off.  More importantly, no talk is ever made
     of the "American cartel", and even worse, while Mexico City radio
     stations are banned from playing "narcorridos", hispanic stations
     in the US play them all the time.  Just the other day, the first
     thing I heard in the morning was a narcorrido praising two drug
     traffickers from Albuquerque.  The song went on to describe where
     they sell, what they wear, what they like to eat, the streets they
     control, and their agreements with state and local LE that they are
     untouchable.  This kind of thing makes me just a little
     uncomfortable.  That, of course, if just my own take on it.  People
     are dying in MX and not in the US, and people have a hard time
     understanding why.

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-04-02 22:03:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 05:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1740847_for-mex-weekly-fwd-from-mx1-on-cdj-.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1743494</id>
    <title>Re: ANALYSIS FOR EDIT - ISRAEL/GREECE/TURKEY - Aegean Sea is an
 amazing place to be
</title>
    <description>   please cc Marko for F/C. I'll have dinner and I may not be able to do it
   quickly.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Robert Inks" &lt;robert.inks@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Writers" &lt;writers@stratfor.com&gt;, "Emre Dogru"
   &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, August 16, 2010 6:57:02 PM
   Subject: Re: ANALYSIS FOR EDIT - ISRAEL/GREECE/TURKEY - Aegean Sea is an
   amazing place to be

   Got it.

   On 8/16/2010 10:53 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

     Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has kicked off his three-day
     long trip to Greece August 16 to hold talks with Greek Prime Minister
     George Papandreou. Netanyahua**s visit a** the first ever visit by an
     Israeli Prime Minister a** comes shortly after Papandreou visited Israel
     on July 23, where the two leaders vowed to boost ties between their
     countries and which was in its own right a historic visit, being the
     first time in 18 years that a Greek PM visited Israel. Both visits come
     as Israeli relationship with Turkey is deteriorating and on the heels of
     a Greek economic crisis that has made it evidently clear to Athens that
     it can no longer face down Ankara in the Aegean alone
     (http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100627_geopolitics_greece_sea_heart)

     Turkey a** Israeli relations have been deteriorating ever since Israeli
     military intervention into Gaza in early January 2008, which broke off
     Turkey-mediated peace talks between Israel and Syria. Relations suffered
     a major hit when Israeli Defense Forces raided a Turkish NGO-led aid
     flotilla bound to break the Gaza siege and killed nine Turkish nationals
     on May 31 [LINK
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100615_turkey_escalating_tension_over_flotilla_probe].
     While there have been efforts to mend the ties (LINK:
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100701_israel_turkey_maintaining_relationship)
     since then, Israel seems to be pursuing a strategy to distract
     Turkeya**s attention and divert its efforts to emerge as a regional
     power away from the Middle East in an attempt undermine increasing
     Turkish influence in the region.

     In this case, Greece is a perfect tool for Israel. Greece has long been
     Turkeya**s main rival, a competition which predates the Cold War. The
     two countries have managed to maintain a balance of power (which
     constitutes NATOa**s southeastern flank) until recently. However, as
     Greece has suffered economically -- and as Turkey establishes itself as
     the rising power in the region (LINK:
     http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical_diary/20100603_israels_isolation_turkeys_rise)
     -- Athens has become far less of a threatening factor to Turkey's
     national security. For both Turkey and Greece the main point of
     contention is the Aegean sea, which is crucial for Greek control of its
     own mainland and thousands of islands. But to exert sovereignty over the
     sea, Greece has had to build up one of the most advanced air forces on
     the continent, a costly affair for a country of 10 million even when not
     facing a sovereign debt crisis of Herculean proportions. Greece has
     therefore attempted to offer a controlled draw down of forces to Turkey
     as a strategy the two can pursue to reduce tensions, but were largely
     rebuffed by Ankara not so much because Turkey still considers Greece a
     threat as much as because Turkey cannot draw down its forces when it is
     looking to expand influence in the Caucuses, Balkans and the Middle
     East.

     Therefore, it is the effect that it will have on Turkey that makes
     warming relations beneficial for both Israel and Greece. This is a
     change in political reality because Athens was a voiciferously pro-Arab
     state throughout the Cold War, with many PLO members finding refuge in
     Athens. Greece opposed Israel for two main reasons, first it was
     suspicious of the Turkish-Israeli alliance and second it did not want to
     find itself isolated from Arab energy exports during the Cold War. But
     with the Turkish-Israeli alliance -- which has been a mainstay of Middle
     Eastern balance of power for decades -- weakening, Athens sees a chance
     to send a message to Turkey. Israel, is hoping that Turkey would be
     concerned about an assertive Greece on its western border, while Athens
     wants to show Turkey that it has options to maintain the balance in
     Aegean. Reports alleging Greece will allow Israeli jet fighters to use
     its air space for training a** something that Turkey provided to Israel
     before a** could be a sign of such an understanding, as it could
     increase military plane dog fights over Aegean.

     However, Greece as an ally, has no means a substitute for Turkey from an
     Israeli point of view as it has no influence a** except for its EU
     membership and history of diplomatic support for Arab states - in the
     Middle East, which could bring value to Israela**s decision-making.
     Moreover, military cooperation between the two countries is not
     unprecedented. In the summer of 2008 the Israeli Air Force held what was
     called a "dress rehearsal" for an Israeli attack on Iran over Greek
     waters. The diplomatic move therefore comes down to sending a message to
     Turkey, both for Greece and Israel. Israel is sending a message to its
     embittered old-ally Turkey by offering a role to Greece, for which
     Greece is happy to play for given its pressuring circumstances. However,
     with Turkey trying to manuver itself into a leadership role in the
     Middle East, Israel's priorities overlapping with those of turkey in the
     Mideast and Greece too weak to pose a credible threat to turkey, it will
     take a lot more than flirtation between Israel and Greece to motivate it
     to change its current course.

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-08-16 18:41:46</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-10 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1743494_re-analysis-for-edit-israel-greece-turkey-aegean-sea-is-an.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>writers@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>robert.inks@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1746588</id>
    <title>GERMANY - Report says Bundeswehr lied during Kunduz strike
</title>
    <description>   Report says Bundeswehr lied during Kunduz strike

   Published: 23 Dec 09 10:02 CET
   Online: http://www.thelocal.de/national/20091223-24131.html

   The German military deliberately misled the American fighter pilots who
   carried out the Kunduz air strikes in which up to 142 Afghans, including
   many civilians, were killed, daily Frankfurter Rundschau reported
   Wednesday.

   Citing a confidential investigation report by the International Security
   Assistance Force (ISAF), the paper reported that Bundeswehr Colonel Georg
   Kleina**s communications officer falsely claimed the German troops had
   a**enemy contacta** to justify the September 4 strike.

   According to the report, the officer, codenamed "Red Baron 21," was acting
   on instructions from Col. Georg Klein, who ordered the deadly air strike.

   Red Baron 21 knowingly misled the flight control centre that was
   instructing the two F-15 fighters that carried out the attack, saying
   troops were in a**immediate dangera** in order a**to make it possible for
   the mission to go ahead,a** the ISAF report said, according to the
   Frankfurter Rundschau.

   But no such enemy contact had taken place. Under the ISAF rules, such an
   air strike can only go ahead if troops are under fire or immediately
   threatened. But at the time of the attack, the nearest German troops were
   nearly eight kilometres away in the Kunduz Bundeswehr field camp. If the
   report is correct, then the Germans breached the regulations.

   The victims of the air strike on two hijacked petrol tankers included many
   civilians, sparking a political maelstrom in Germany. Franz Josef Jung,
   who was Defence Minister at the time of the attack, was forced to resign
   along with Germanya**s top soldier Wolfgang Schneiderhahn and senior
   Defence Ministry bureaucrat Peter Wichert after it emerged the government
   had falsely claimed no civilians were killed in the attack.

   Now there is increasing pressure on Junga**s successor, Karl-Theodor zu
   Guttenberg, along with Chancellor Angela Merkel, to explain the
   information debacle that followed the attack. The lower house of the
   parliament or Bundestag, will begin an inquiry into the governmenta**s
   handling of the affair in January.

   The latest revelations will increase the stakes further.

   News magazine Der Spiegel recently reported that Col. Klein turned down
   the F-15 pilotsa** request to do a a**fly overa** of the two stranded
   tankers, giving the people on the ground time to flee.

   This fact, along with the alleged false claim that German troops had had
   contact with the Taliban, would mean Col. Klein breached ISAF protocols on
   air strikes

   http://www.thelocal.de/national/20091223-24131.html
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-08 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1746588_germany-report-says-bundeswehr-lied-during-kunduz-strike-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>os@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1747409</id>
    <title>Re: Get follow up from mx1? Thx
</title>
    <description>   sending

   Fred Burton wrote:

 Very insightful.  Greatly appreciate the follow up.

 Does MX1 know which US LE took the lead on this?

 Also, what has he heard about the Juarez FSN killing?


 Marko Papic wrote:
  

 Here is his update... please give me any follow up / clarification
 questions.




 There have been more developments.

 I found out that there is a group of US and Mexican LE that
 discretely attempted, and succeeded, in brokering a deal in
 Tijuana.  If you notice, Tijuana violence has nearly ceased.  There
 are only minor skirmishes that do not appear to be tied to any
 major cartel.

 It was this same group of guys that presented their "signalling
 strategy" and attempted it for CDJ.

 It is not so much a message for the Mexican government as it is for
 the Sinaloa cartel and VCF themselves.  Basically, the message they
 want to send out is that Sinaloa is winning and that the violence
 is unacceptable.  They want the CARTELS to negotiate with EACH
 OTHER.  The idea is that if they can do this, violence will drop
 and the governments will allow controlled drug trades.

 Unfortunately, CDJ is not ripe for this kind of activity, as the
 major routes and methods for bulk shipping into the US have already
 been negotiated with US authorities.  In this sense, the message
 that Sinaloa was winning was, in my view, intended to tell SEDENA
 to stop taking down large trucks full of dope as they made their
 way to the US.  These large shipments were Sinaloa's, and they are
 OK with the Americans.  The argument is that most of the violence
 remains related to the local market, and that SEDENA should focus
 on smaller gangs and fringe groups that try to cross smaller
 quantities.  Again, this is just my own reading of the situation.
 A few weeks after the announcement was made, no more multi-ton
 shipments were seized.  However, I don't think this was the reason.
  Rather, I would submit that Sinaloa has figured out other routes,
 ways, etc... for their big shipments.

 Fred Burton wrote:
 --

 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

 Marko Papic

 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

 STRATFOR

 700 Lavaca Street - 900

 Austin, Texas

 78701 USA

 P: + 1-512-744-4094

 marko.papic@stratfor.com

    

   --

   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

   Marko Papic

   Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

   STRATFOR

   700 Lavaca Street - 900

   Austin, Texas

   78701 USA

   P: + 1-512-744-4094

   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-06-03 18:12:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 05:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1747409_re-get-follow-up-from-mx1-thx-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1747720</id>
    <title>Re: [Fwd: Re: FW: From MX1 -- 2]
</title>
    <description>   &gt;Follow up --
   &gt;
   &gt;Any evidence one of the FSN's were dirty, perhaps selling visas?

   Not that I know.  Personally, I suspect that would not be the case.
    I know the RSO in CDJ and he runs a very tight ship.

   Fred Burton wrote:

 Marko,

 Can you ping MX1 on this report to see if there have been any further
 developments?

 To clarify if I read this right, MX1 is saying the U.S. has signaled MX
 that its okay for the Mexicans to negotiate with the cartels?  Or, am I
 missing something?

 Thanks


     ------------------------------------------------------------------------
     *From:* Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com
     &lt;mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;]
     *Sent:* Monday, April 19, 2010 6:50 PM
     *To:* burton@stratfor.com &lt;mailto:burton@stratfor.com&gt;
     *Cc:* Fred Burton; Scott Stewart; Alex Posey; Ben West

     *Subject:* Re: From MX1 -- 2

     The Mexican strategy is not to negotiate directly.

     In any event, "negotiations" would take place as follows:
     (assuming a non-disputed plaza)
     - They bring some drugs, the transport some drugs, they are
     discrete, they don't bother anyone, no one gets hurt.
     - Government turns the other way
     - They kill someone or do something violent
     - Government responds by taking down drug network or making arrests

     (now, assuming a disputed plaza)
     - Group comes in, government waits to see how dominant cartel
     responds
     - If dominant cartel fights them, government takes them down
     - If dominant cartel is allied, no problem.
     - If group comes in and start committing violence, they get taken
     down: first by the government letting the dominant cartel do their
     thing, then punishing both cartels.

     As you can see, this is not a good strategy, but this is how
     "negotiations" take place with cartels, through signals.  There are
     no meetings, etc...

     So, the MX strategy is not to negotiate.  However, I think the US
     sent a signal that could be construed as follows:
     "To the VCF and Sinaloa cartels:  Thank you for providing our
     market with drugs over the years.  We are now concerned about your
     perpetration of violence, and would like to see you stop that.  In
     this regard, please know that Sinaloa is bigger and better than
     VCF.  Also note that CDJ is very important to us, as is the whole
     border.  In this light, please talk amongst yourselves and lets all
     get back to business.  Again, we recognize that Sinaloa is bigger
     and better, so either VCF gets in line or we will mess you up."

     I don't know what the US strategy is, but I can tell you that if
     the message was understood by Sinaloa and VCF as I described above,
     the Mexican government would not be opposed at all.

     In sum, I have a gut feeling that the US agencies tried to send a
     signal telling the cartels to negotiate themselves.  They
     unilaterally declared a winner, and this is unprecedented, and
     deserves analysis.  If there was no strategy behind this, and it
     was simply a leaked report, then I will be interested to see how it
     plays out in the coming months.






     ----- Original Message -----
     From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com &lt;mailto:burton@stratfor.com&gt;&gt;
     To: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com
     &lt;mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;&gt;, "Fred Burton"
     &lt;fred.burton@stratfor.com &lt;mailto:fred.burton@stratfor.com&gt;&gt;, "Scott
     Stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com
     &lt;mailto:scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;&gt;, "Alex Posey"
     &lt;alex.posey@stratfor.com &lt;mailto:alex.posey@stratfor.com&gt;&gt;, "Ben
     West" &lt;ben.west@stratfor.com &lt;mailto:ben.west@stratfor.com&gt;&gt;
     Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2010 7:36:40 AM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
     Subject: Re: From MX1 -- 2

     Can you ask if the MX strategy is a desire for direct negotiation
     with the cartels?

     If so, doesn't that give the cartels recognized diplomacy?
     ------------------------------------------------------------------------

  

   --

   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

   Marko Papic

   Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

   STRATFOR

   700 Lavaca Street - 900

   Austin, Texas

   78701 USA

   P: + 1-512-744-4094

   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-06-04 18:45:25</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 05:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1747720_re-fwd-re-fw-from-mx1-2-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alex.posey@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1748619</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION -- Moscow's Moves in Central Europe
</title>
    <description>   Order of countries in terms of priority:

   Czech Republic
   Estonia
   Latvia
   Lithuania
   Poland
   Hungary
   Bulgaria
   Slovakia
   Romania

   As for NGOs we should start with "No bases". From there we can go and look
   at any NGO that has an agenda such as:
   - anti-nuclear energy
   - anti-nuclear weapons
   - anti - GMO
   - peace NGOs
   - NGOs and human rights groups that deal with Russian minorities

   An OS sweep as an initial cut might make sense.

   Sean Noonan wrote:

     what countries are priorities? in rank order please.  what media and
     NGOs can you think of off the top of your head?

     Sean Noonan wrote:

       I have some general questions and thoughts (which must be taken with a
       grain of salt as my understanding of Eurasia is limited)

       1. "continuation of soviet tactics"--is it really? Or is it rather a
       different and more careful extension of these tactics? I think we have
       to be careful how we phrase and explain this.  Your comparison is with
       western Europe during that time, so that would mean that Russia's
       ability to extend its influence is actually more limited (it is not
       going as far West).  And it has learned to apply more careful tactics
       in a region where it had overt control before.  So I'm not disagreeing
       with  you here, but I want to make sure we fully examine what tactics
       Russia is applying where. 

       2. The problems with examining covert/clandestine tactics.  Some are
       going to be more obvious and identifiable than others. 

       For example, a whole lot of FSB guys on the ground in Kyrgyzstan is
       very meaningful, but we don't always know what they are doing.  We can
       expect to see a lot of them all over this region, and an increasing
       number (as in that report on Czech).  But what exactly does that
       mean?  In kyrgyzstan we have pretty good arguments for their
       involvement in the coup.  What are we seeing in the central european
       countries?

       When it comes to media and NGOs it becomes more difficult.  Some media
       may very well be toeing Moscow's line and actively spreading certain
       information, others may just have a pro-Russian viewpoint.  Think of
       CNN, or even Stratfor at times, that simply take a US-centric view on
       certain topics.  The information of Russian involvement during the
       cold war with many different NGOs--from terrorist groups to
       peaceniks--often became apparent much later.  We can examine the past
       MO and compare it with current events and draw parallels.  We can look
       at links between different groups and Russia government as well.  In
       the end though, these links will be pretty hard to identify.  Look at
       our current CSM discussion on the Chinese company Huawei--there's some
       pretty serious speculation, but it's still speculation.  Also remember
       the KGB was the best of the best at disguising its links to these
       different groups.  I'm not saying this isn't worth investigating. It's
       possible we could come up with some interesting links, such as between
       the credit cards used in the Dubai assassination and Israel.  I don't
       want to get into the debate on that again, but basically it was a
       fuck-up that made that information available.  That, or really good
       sourcing, will be required to make definite links.  But we could also
       produce a lot of very good conjecture that highlights different
       anamolies--something stratfor is very good at. 

       Think more about what groups you've seen and we'll look into them
       more. 

       Marko Papic wrote:

         Interesting question.

         Last thing Russia needs is an aggressive Poland (in the north) and
         Romania (in the south) pushing against its sphere of influence.
         Poland has cultural/historical/geographic ties to Belarus, as does
         Lithuania. Same with Romania in Moldova. Russia does not want these
         countries enlisting the rest of Central Europe, especially the
         Slovaks, Czechs, Bulgarians and Hungarians -- in a broader counter
         of Moscow's moves in Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova.

         Therefore, you are in a way talking about reducing tensions so that
         the focus can be shifted elsewhere.

         This is essentially a continuation of Soviet tactics during the Cold
         War. By the end of the 1960s, Moscow no longer actively sought
         conversion of West European democracies to Communist rule. It began
         assuaging their fears, nurturing such politics as Ostpolitik in
         order to make sure that West European commitment to U.S. efforts to
         roll back Russian influence in Hungary/Poland/Czech wavered.

         Michael Wilson wrote:

           As kind if an ancillary focus, is concentrating on such things
           cheaper than threatening with military might, and/or does it allow
           you to go ahead with military restructuring. In other words does
           concentrating on such things allow you to refocus or shift
           anything at home

           Marko Papic wrote:

             The ongoing "charm offensive" in Poland combined with the
             tactics that Moscow used in taking out Kyrgyzstan has given me
             the idea that we should perhaps be looking at NGOs, human rights
             groups, media (RT), propaganda tools and other tactics that
             Russia uses in the rest of the world, Central Europe
             specifically.

             Two items actually jumped at me today that talked about this:

             -- This item from Estonian Security Policy about how Russia is
             expanding media influence in the Baltics:
             http://www.baltic-course.com/eng/markets_and_companies/?doc=25742&amp;ins_print
             -- This item from Ukraine about pro-Russian NGOs in Crimea
             (attached below since it arrived through BBC Monitoring)
             Also, take a look at this piece from late 2008
             (http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20080925_czech_republic_russias_increasing_intelligence_activities)
             in which we talked about a report from the Czech
             counterintelligence service, Security Information Service (BIS)
             about the influence of Russian intelligence operatives in Czech
             Republic.
             This is nothing new. Soviet Union was extremely adept at using
             left-wing and environmental groups -- sometimes even without
             their knowledge -- as an unaware "fifth column" in Western
             European states. Look at the example of the UK Campaign for
             Nuclear Disarmament (whose symbol, by the way, is the peace sign
             and was later coopted by the peace movement) from the 1980s
             which apparently received funding from the USSR. Guess who was
             this groups' national treasurer... Catherine Ashton, the current
             EU "foreign minister".

             The Polish "charm offensive" shows us that Russia does not want
             to dominate Central Europe anymore. That is not their strategy.
             Russians want to return to the borders of the former Soviet
             Union -- extent of the borders being the mountains -- but they
             are not seeking confrontation with NATO on the North European
             Plain, at least not yet. This means that they don't need Central
             Europeans to be under their control, they just need them to
             acquiesce in Russia's dominance of Eastern Europe, Belarus,
             Ukraine, Caucasus and Central Asia.
             This also means that Central Europe today is in the role of
             Western Europe during the Cold War, which means that Russia will
             try to convince them that it is not a threat, that they should
             not ally with warmongering US and that they should accept the
             Russian sphere of influence. Various NGOs,
             environmental/human-rights/peace groups as well as a glossy and
             sophisticated propaganda machine (RT is no Pravda) are part of
             this.
             I am suggesting that I pair up with our TACTICAL crew to do a
             piece on this. Considering the events in Poland and Kyrgyzstan,
             this looks like a very timely piece.
             Any thoughts? challenges? questions? comments?

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Watchofficer
 STRATFOR
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Sean Noonan
 ADP- Tactical Intelligence
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

  

 --
 Sean Noonan
 ADP- Tactical Intelligence
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

  

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-04-14 18:12:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-24 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1748619_re-discussion-moscow-s-moves-in-central-europe-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1751633</id>
    <title>Re: Apparently I'm not making friends this time...
</title>
    <description>   Make sure you resend this on Sat/Sunday so it doesnt get lost in Peter's
   emails... since he is away this week.

   This is FASCINATING stuff. I do understand the cold shoulder you are
   getting, I mean it is only natural. But I find it fascinating that
   Godfather is so liberally parading you around. I mean isn't that strange?
   You are pretty radioactive right now, I mean I'd try to distance myself
   from you as much as possible. So how does that work?

   Take care of course! And kick ass...

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Lauren Goodrich" &lt;goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;, "Eugene Chausovsky"
   &lt;eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com&gt;, "Reva Bhalla"
   &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;, "Peter Zeihan" &lt;peter.zeihan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Sunday, November 22, 2009 3:41:17 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Apparently I'm not making friends this time...

   So my godfather threw me a little dinner and drinks mixer tonight at his
   home tonight. It was filled with Kremlin ppl and I was so excited to be
   there after my disastrous day with the Kremlin Defense group. It was an
   odd evening though because alot of people seemed kinda irritated by my
   attendance (though the party was for me).

   Anyway, I walked up to a nice looking woman I didn't know personally--
   Medvedev's media representative, Natalia Timakova. I smiled nicely and
   offered her my hand in introduction. She looked down at my hand and
   without taking it, said really snidely "I know who you are. We all know
   who you are. I just wanted to see who all the fuss was about."

   Apparently, she is really pissed off that I wrote that Putin would be
   willing to throw Medvedev under the bus should the reforms go wrong. It
   isn't that she doesn't believe it won't happen, but she didn't want it
   said publicly.

   Anyway, I'm on day 2 and apparently I should have waited until the Kremlin
   Wars blew over before returning to the motherland.

   *ah, sigh*

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1751633_re-apparently-i-m-not-making-friends-this-time-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>peter.zeihan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1753571</id>
    <title>Re: RESEARCH REQUEST - GREECE/ECON - client project
</title>
    <description>   Attached

   Marko Papic wrote:

     Analysis: this is for the client call tomorrow morning (9:45am).

     Description:

     One of my theories is that Greek problems could have been forecast by
     the end of the Cold War. The Greeks have been livin' off the hog of the
     Cold War since 1945. They were a critical country (prevents Russians
     from getting to the Med) that allowed the West to keep Soviets plugged
     on the Balkans. Once Cold War ended, they were no longer important.

     Few things I need:

     -- Total Marshall Funds (in today's dollars if possible) Greece got.
     -- Total U.S. aid (or just transfers of money or whatever) from 1945 to
     today.
     -- Total EU structural funds forwarded to Greece from their accession to
     today.

     Thanks guys.

     Marko

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Matthew Powers
 STRATFOR Research ADP
 Matthew.Powers@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-05-04 20:42:08</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1753571_re-research-request-greece-econ-client-project-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>matthew.powers@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>researchers@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/127/127508_Greece Aid From US and EU.xlsx</path><size>15206</size><md5></md5><sha1>f7b2a6b2daf97467ca80665aadef80aa5d745091</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1759597</id>
    <title>Special Report: Venezuela's Control of the Armed Forces
</title>
    <description>    Stratfor logo                                                             
   Special Report: Venezuela's Control of the Armed Forces                    
                                                                              
    May 3, 2010 | 1307 GMT                                                    
    Special Report: Venezuela's Control of the Armed Forces                   
    Summary                                                                   
                                                                              
    Controlling Venezuela requires controlling oil and the armed forces, and  
    Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has managed to do both for more than a   
    decade. Challenges to this control have emerged, however, such as         
    enormous debt at the state-owned oil company and dissatisfaction in the   
    armed forces at the role of Cubans in the South American country's        
    military. Still, Chavez's hold appears secure so long as the oil          
    revenues keep flowing.                                                    
                                                                              
    Analysis                                                                  
    PDF Version                                                               
      * Click here to download a PDF of this report                           
                                                                              
    In Venezuela, the key to state control lies in two things: oil and guns.  
    Those with the guns, i.e., the armed forces, have the ability to          
    threaten the state, but those with the oil have the revenues to silence   
    the guns and the populace. Therefore, if the state is to control the      
    populace and the armed forces, it must control the oil.                   
                                                                              
    This model has worked relatively well for Venezuelan President Hugo       
    Chavez in his 11-plus years in power. The state has taken control over    
    the oil revenues, the population has been heavily subsidized and for the  
    most part, the loyalty of the generals has been purchased by the regime.  
    The situation has by no means been all rosy for the Chavez government,    
    however. The government is dealing with a host of issues right now,       
    including a growing electricity crisis, preparations for legislative      
    elections in September, striking workers and mountains of debt owed by    
    state oil firm Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), all of which require       
    expensive short-term fixes. Venezuela's pocketbook is being stretched     
    and the economy is in a state of slow decay, but enough funds appear to   
    be flowing for now to keep Chavez in control.                             
                                                                              
    A number of Venezuelan opposition media outlets (many of which influence  
    the U.S. media) regularly convey the impression that the Chavez           
    government is on its last legs. These reports paint a picture in which    
    disaffected generals in a military overrun by Cubans are on the verge of  
    rising up against the president. The so-called "Cubanization" of the      
    military has accelerated in recent years, and signs of stress are         
    visible in the regime - but not to the level portrayed in most political  
    analysis on Venezuela. In particular, the military has been impotent      
    against Chavez for years. In the following report, STRATFOR will take a   
    deeper look at the restructuring of the Venezuelan armed forces under     
    the Chavez government and the steps that the president has taken both to  
    enervate and appease the military as a form of political insurance.       
                                                                              
     Ensuring Loyalty with a Pay Bump                                         
                                                                              
    The Venezuelan government is wracking up a hefty bill for expensive       
    electricity generators, fuel imports to run those generators, debt        
    obligations to foreign oil firms and various forms of political           
    patronage in the lead-up to September legislative elections. At the same  
    time, Caracas needs to deny the armed forces the incentive to challenge   
    the government as the economic climate deteriorates. The short-term       
    answer for this is a pay bump for the armed forces.                       
                                                                              
    In his weekly television address, Alo Presidente, Venezuelan President    
    Hugo Chavez announced April 25 his government's intent to invest $145.5   
    million bolivars ($33.8 million) to raise the salaries of all ranks in    
    the armed forces by 40 percent, paid retroactively from April 1. No       
    other details on the division and distribution of the salaries by rank    
    were released. The Venezuelan military, which reportedly had not been     
    given a raise in more than four years, reacted with predictable           
    enthusiasm to the raises. Along with the rest of the Venezuelan public,   
    military personnel have been struggling with the country's skyrocketing   
    inflation, which a recent currency devaluation has exacerbated. With the  
    salary increase, Chavez claimed a "recently commissioned lieutenant"      
    will now make a salary of nearly 2,500 bolivars ($581) a month.           
                                                                              
    Special Report: Venezuela's Control of the Armed Forces                   
    JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty Images                                             
    Venezuelan army tanks during a military parade in Caracas on April 19     
                                                                              
    At first blush, a 40 percent wage increase for an 82,000-strong military  
    would appear to be a very large fiscal expense that would stress the      
    government's finances. However, two factors make this wage increase much  
    less financially burdensome. First, in light of the January devaluation   
    of the bolivar, local-currency proceeds from oil sales have now doubled,  
    meaning the government will have plenty of bolivars to support the wage   
    increase. Second, since the annual inflation rate - as reported by        
    Venezuela's central bank- stands at about 30 percent, the wage increase   
    only amounts to around 10 percent in real terms. The devaluation and      
    recent changes to the central bank's charter will likely increase         
    inflationary pressure in coming quarters, continuing the erosion of real  
    wages.                                                                    
                                                                              
     Cubanization                                                             
                                                                              
    The salary increase for the military also comes amid rising public        
    criticism of the politicization and so-called Cubanization of the         
    Venezuelan military. Former Venezuelan Brig. Gen. Antonio Rivero claimed  
    the "the presence and meddling of Cuban soldiers" in the armed forces     
    prompted his April retirement. Rivero said Cubans were operating at some  
    of the highest levels in the Venezuelan military, delivering              
    intelligence, communications, weapons and other training for the troops.  
    He also denounced the extent to which Chavez has undermined military      
    professionalism, and complained of the government's move to expand its    
    civilian militia. In the same address in which he announced the salary    
    increase for the military, Chavez addressed Rivero's complaints, saying   
    he was saddened by the general's attempt to draw attention to himself.    
    Chavez also defended his decision to embrace the Cuban military presence  
    by criticizing previous Venezuelan administrations for allowing the U.S.  
    military to staff the offices of the country's Army Command Headquarters  
    and manage Venezuelan state secrets.                                      
                                                                              
    While the opposition is eager to exploit the public relations sensation   
    of a general condemning Chavez's military policy, retiring generals and   
    the Cuban links into the Venezuelan military are not exactly startling    
    developments in Venezuela. The deep integration of Cuban forces in the    
    Venezuelan military has been an open secret in recent years. By having    
    enlisted soldiers and trainers percolate throughout the armed services    
    at virtually all levels, the Chavez government has been able to tap       
    Cuba's security and intelligence expertise to keep tabs on dissidents     
    and quash any potential threats to the government. For its part, Cuba     
    benefits from being able to influence the policies of a regional,         
    oil-producing heavyweight in South America. As Chavez's political and     
    economic vulnerabilities have increased, so have the opportunities for    
    Cuba to entrench itself in Venezuela.                                     
                                                                              
    This symbiotic relationship saw its clearest manifestation with the July  
    2008 passage of the Organic Law of the National Armed Forces. The law     
    redefined the Venezuelan Armed Forces from a politically nonaligned       
    professional institution (as stated in the 1999 constitution) to a        
    patriotic, popular and anti-imperialist body, as described in the         
    legislation. Chavez, not wanting to be caught off guard again by his      
    generals as he was during an April 2002 coup attempt, created the law to  
    develop a military primarily tasked with protecting and defending the     
    regime from internal threats. The Cuban government, wanting to ensure     
    Venezuelan dependency on Cuban security, is believed to have had a role   
    in one of the more controversial articles in the law. This provision      
    allows for foreign nationals (i.e., Cubans) who have graduated from       
    Venezuelan defense institutions to earn the rank of officer in the        
    Venezuelan armed forces.                                                  
                                                                              
    Another clause in the law forces officers into retirement if they are     
    not promoted after two years. Though such provisions are common in many   
    militaries, Caracas has used it with unusual frequency as a tool to       
    remove potential dissenters. Under this system, political allegiance can  
    easily supersede military merit when it comes to awarding promotions or   
    forcing resignations. Cuban advisers, who have been tasked with           
    identifying localized threats from within the armed forces, are believed  
    to have significant influence on these decisions.                         
                                                                              
    Chavez recently remarked in Havana that he felt like he was "one more     
    Cuban." But many Venezuelans do not like the Cubans' methods or their     
    growing presence in the country, and Cuban integration in the Venezuelan  
    armed forces appears to have alienated several high-ranking members of    
    the military. Chavez, however, has knowingly incurred this risk, and      
    undermining powerful military leaders was likely one of his key goals.    
    Problematic generals can be forced into retirement while the Cubans       
    closely scrutinize the remaining military elite, who are given perks to   
    keep them loyal to the government.                                        
                                                                              
    While this comes at the cost of considerable expertise and                
    professionalism, Chavez's goal is to ensure that the upper ranks of the   
    military lack the operational control to challenge the president.         
    Mid-tier members of the military probably worry the Venezuelan president  
    more, however. After all, Chavez was a lieutenant colonel with the        
    charisma to rally a sizable portion of the military and lower classes     
    around him in his 1992 coup attempt and victorious 1998 presidential      
    campaign. As long as he is the one occupying the presidency, Chavez does  
    not wish to see any lieutenant colonels following in his footsteps.       
    Since Chavez lacks the same reach and oversight with the lower ranks of   
    the military than he has with the generals, pay raises are a way to help  
    mitigate potential threats emanating from below.                          
                                                                              
     Militia Insurance                                                        
                                                                              
    Chavez has also attempted to make up for any lingering dissent within     
    the armed forces through the creation of the National Bolivarian Militia  
    (NBM) in 2007, which has some 110,000 reservists, and has since           
    reportedly grown to roughly 300,000 (though these estimates are likely    
    exaggerated.) Efforts are also under way to bolster the NBM with peasant  
    recruits and perhaps to form a marine militia.                            
                                                                              
    Special Report: Venezuela's Control of the Armed Forces                   
    JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty Images                                             
    Members of the National Bolivarian Militia on Feb. 20 in Caracas          
                                                                              
    The militias present themselves as a security element operating at the    
    president's behest. Though the armed forces reputedly are responsible     
    for their training, the militia does not exhibit the skills of an         
    effective security force. Militia members are comprised of men and women  
    of all shapes, sizes and ages from Venezuela's lower classes. It is no    
    elite guerrilla unit; instead, it is a poorly trained peasant force. The  
    state uses their exercises and marches as photo opportunities to          
    demonstrate a military force ideologically bound to the regime. More      
    important, the incorporation of the NBM into the armed forces provides    
    the president a useful chip to keep the military elite in check.          
                                                                              
    The Venezuelan Defense Ministry has also strongly resisted the            
    deployment and armament of these militias. The ministry is believed to    
    keep tabs on the militia's activities by maintaining physical control     
    over it weapons arsenal, which consists mainly of AK-103 and AK-104       
    assault rifles acquired from Russia. The militia forces may not be        
    well-trained, but ideology can be a powerful motivational force, and      
    they could gain strength in numbers as Chavez continues his push to       
    expand the force. Chavez's purpose in building the militia appears to be  
    to make the cost of a coup too high, given the risk of a civil war        
    between the militia and the military.                                     
                                                                              
    Chavez*s militia-building efforts and apparent tendency to put more       
    trust in his Cuban advisers than his own generals may be sore points for  
    many within the military elite, but these are also the very tools he is   
    using to keep the armed forces too weak and divided to pose a real        
    threat to his regime. So far, the strategy has worked. And as long as     
    the oil revenues continue to flow, the electricity crisis is contained    
    and the military's wages can be paid, the Venezuelan president is likely  
    to have the political insurance he needs to hold onto power.              
                                                                              
    Tell STRATFOR What You Think                   Read What Others Think     
                                                                              
    For Publication                                Reader Comments            
                                                                              
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    (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
</description>
    <date>2010-05-03 16:36:25</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-04-02 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1759597_special-report-venezuela-s-control-of-the-armed-forces-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>allstratfor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>noreply@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1760536</id>
    <title>CANVAS stuff
</title>
    <description>   Our CANVAS source said on Dec. 17 that the U.S. administration was looking
   to cut off funding to pro-democracy groups, in general, but also
   specifically for Iran. He attended a NSC meeting on Dec. 18 where this
   came up, although the meeting was, according to him, not on Iran
   specifically.
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-06-18 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1760536_canvas-stuff-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1760720</id>
    <title>RE: [Fwd: Can the Euro Zone Cope with a National Bankruptcy?]
</title>
    <description>   That was great.  Thanks so much for sending it.  Brilliant idea for them,
   too.  Refinancing the debt by issuing more.  But it will be interesting
   w/Greece further indebted and not yet proven, what they will have to pay
   to roll the debt (since this is new debt, and the maturing debt still has
   to be repaid.  Presumably it will have to be repaid with a new issue of
   its own.)

    

   How did Der Spiegel get that letter?  It is so interesting that they know
   exactly how much each bank had of Greek debt.  It would really be
   interesting to know more.  I wonder if they had more details in there. 
   Also, I can't believe HRE got that far out on the risk curve at the same
   time it was being recapped by the state.  Some things I just will never
   understand about German banks.

    

   Interesting thing on that last statement about inflation.  Nothing would
   be better for Germany than a continuously devaluing currency due to
   inflation.  And for non-stop debt issuance.  It will help their exports.

    

   On the CDS, they do a good job discussing the difference between the old
   days where you had to borrow bonds to short the currency and now where you
   can buy CDS on the gov't bonds.  Of course in those days, with floating
   currency, it gets cheaper (in your currency) to borrow the bonds as they
   go down, but also there is more leverage allowed in general these days,
   instrument allowed or not.

    

   One big difference w/CDS on countries vs. places like Bear is that, in
   theory, no matter how wide the spreads on the CDS get on a country's
   bonds, the country still refinances at the spread on their bond, not on
   their CDS which is often wider.  Also, Greece is a very long way from
   defaulting.  For it to actually not be able to pay, it would have to be
   requiring much higher interest rates.  In the meantime, they could still
   stop payment on public sector employees, etc.  They might not want to, but
   they could.  In the case of a place like Bear Stearns, they really did get
   totally shut out of the capital markets.  Hedge funds would buy CDS, then
   short stock, which made the CDS price go up, which made the stock price go
   down...the lower the stock price went, the less likely it was to be able
   to issue new equity in a quantity that would be needed.  To make it worse,
   those hedge funds were pulling their prime brokerage accounts, fueling
   fear and sapping liquidity.  That is a death spiral caused by CDS.  To me,
   the Euro countries are CDS somewhat exaggerating the actual risks of
   default in the bonds.  They are not actually (yet, anyway) creating a
   bigger risk of default in the bond.  To a certain degree, people writing
   about it causes some panic which makes it harder for Greece to refinance,
   but serious bond buyers (most of whom are much bigger than CDS
   speculators) understand that game.

    

   I am going to start reading Der Spiegel.

    

   Take care,

    

   Lisa

    

   Lisa Hintz
   Capital Markets Research Group
   Moody's Analytics
   212-553-7151

    

   Nothing in this email may be reproduced without explicit, written
   permission.

    

   From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Monday, February 22, 2010 2:38 PM
   To: Hintz, Lisa
   Subject: [Fwd: Can the Euro Zone Cope with a National Bankruptcy?]

    

   I love Der Spiegel... This article is the reason why... long and thorough.

   Hope everything is going good and that Mauldin fiasco is over.

   Cheers,

   Marko

   -------- Original Message --------

    Subject: Can the Euro Zone Cope with a National Bankruptcy? 
       Date: Mon, 22 Feb 2010 13:26:40 -0600                    
       From: Marko Papic &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;             
   Reply-To: Econ List &lt;econ@stratfor.com&gt;                      
         To: Econ List &lt;econ@stratfor.com&gt;                      

   Really long Der Spiegel piece... but it lays out some of the points that
   Rob just explained in his discussion.

 --

Can the Euro Zone Cope with a National Bankruptcy?

   As speculators attack the euro, Europe is facing a growing threat of
   national bankruptcies. The consequences would be dramatic for the whole of
   the continent, especially German banks, which are highly exposed to risky
   debt. EU politicians are willing to pay almost any price to help the
   beleaguered countries. By SPIEGEL staff.

   On Wall Street, they call Bill Lipschutz the "Sultan of Currencies." He
   once turned the legendary investment bank Salomon Brothers into the
   world's largest foreign currency trading operation. Today Lipschutz runs
   his own hedge fund, which specializes in currencies.

   "I still approach the market the same way. I still approach it as a 24/7
   market," says Lipschutz. He trades almost constantly, even at home in his
   apartment in New York's trendy NoHo district, where there are monitors
   everywhere. Every night, Lipschutz gets up at two or three in the morning
   to see what is happening on the European markets.

   Europe is indeed currently the hottest topic on the global financial
   markets. The value of the battered euro has been falling since the Greek
   government confessed to the actual scope of its debt -- and since it
   became clear that things are not looking significantly better in the other
   PIIGS countries (the acronym refers to Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece
   and Spain).

   There has never been this much uncertainty. No one knows whether the
   Greeks will manage to solve their problems, whether and how other
   countries will come to their aid, whether the crisis can be confined to
   Greece or whether it will spread like wildfire among the PIIGS -- and end
   up tearing apart the European currency union.

   All of this translates into excellent opportunities for foreign currency
   traders and speculators. They can either bet on a decline of the euro or a
   bailout for the Greeks in the form of a rescue effort by other euro zone
   countries. In the first case, the price of Greek government bonds will hit
   rock bottom, and in the second case it will rise.

   These are the kinds of conditions that make it possible to make a lot of
   money quickly -- but with devastating consequences, because speculators
   amplify trends and increase risks. If they bet on a Greek bankruptcy, it
   will become even more difficult, and expensive, to attract fresh capital.
   This could lead to a national bankruptcy or the feared conflagration -- or
   even the collapse of the euro.

   Problem Cases

   The financial industry is back to its old tricks, playing with the
   greatest possible amount of risk. In the past, it speculated with the
   debts of American homeowners and, as a result, triggered the biggest
   crisis in the world economy since the Great Depression of the 1920s. Now
   it is gambling with the debts of entire countries.

   After the failure of investment bank Lehman Brothers, it was governments
   that saved the financial markets from collapse. Now the governments are
   being attacked -- with the cheap money their central banks pumped into the
   market to keep the financial sector afloat.

   A new Lehman, triggered by speculation in government bonds, would be
   disproportionately more dangerous, because it would affect the entire
   world economy. And who would rescue the economy then?

   It is no coincidence, however, that the speculators have not zeroed in on
   the dollar, the British pound or the yen. Although the United States,
   Britain and Japan are also groaning under the burden of their debt, the
   euro is much more vulnerable, for both historic and political reasons.

   The weak southern countries, members of the so-called Club Med, have
   always been seen as problem cases. They have lived beyond their means and
   neglected the need to be competitive, they have built up -- partly in full
   view, partly cleverly hidden -- enormous mountains of debt, and they have
   avoided hard-hitting reforms. These conditions existed before they became
   members of the euro zone, and they did not improve afterwards.

   The other euro countries looked the other way. Initially, before the
   establishment of monetary union, they looked away because they didn't want
   to jeopardize their political goal of a European common currency. Later,
   it was because they themselves were benefiting from the euro. The German
   export economy, in particular, was able to expand continuously, unhampered
   by troublesome revaluation and appreciation that would have made its
   exports more expensive.

   Vindicating the Critics

   The euro has been a success story until now. During the recent financial
   crisis, the common currency proved to be a blessing at first, particularly
   for the smaller countries. But as debt levels increased, the problems,
   previously suppressed, became more and more evident, including the
   debt-based economy in the Club Med and the imbalances in terms of
   competitiveness.

   Even before the common currency was introduced in 1999, Nobel economics
   laureate Milton Friedman was warning that the euro would not survive its
   first economic crisis. He predicted that the euro zone could break apart
   after just 10 years.

   Ever since the Greeks were forced to admit that their national debt was
   much higher than originally claimed, the critics of a common European
   currency have felt vindicated. They had always warned that the northern
   countries would eventually have to vouch for the debts of the south, that
   the differences in economic development within the euro zone were too
   great and that a common currency could not function without a common
   economic policy.

   At the time, politicians ignored the concerns of many economists. Now they
   realize that this may have been a mistake. The European agreements that
   define the legal framework of the currency union do not include any
   provisions to account for the kind of crisis the euro is currently
   experiencing. For that reason, there are no instruments available to
   combat such a crisis.

   The Speculators' Sharpest Weapon

   The speculators' campaign against Greece began in early December. The
   rating agencies had downgraded the country and the press, particularly in
   English-speaking countries, was reporting more and more on the Greeks'
   doctored statistics and high level of government debt. The information
   wasn't entirely new, but it had its effect, quickly driving up the price
   of so-called credit default swaps (CDS).

   Credit default swaps are the same financial instruments that caused so
   much damage before the Lehman bankruptcy. They are considered partly
   responsible for the financial crisis. For this reason, many people called
   for strict regulation of credit default swaps after the Lehman bankruptcy.
   But nothing happened, and the results are now becoming apparent.

   A CDS contract is, in fact, a sort of insurance policy, which pays out
   when borrowers, like Greece, go bankrupt. Credit default swaps were
   invented so that lenders could hedge against such risks. In practice,
   however, they have become the speculators' sharpest weapon when they go on
   the offensive against companies or countries, because they make it
   possible to achieve a maximum impact with a relatively tiny investment.
   "Dealers can turn the market with only 50 million," says one investment
   banker.

   Because CDSs are traded completely independently of the underlying
   securities, a gray market with a total nominal value of EUR26 trillion
   ($35 trillion) has developed outside the exchanges. The market has shrunk
   since the beginning of the financial crisis, after it became too daunting
   even for speculators. But now that money appears to be available in
   abundance once again, credit default swaps on government debt are among
   the hottest toys in the financial industry.

   Too Expensive

   The prototype of all currency speculators is George Soros, who kicked the
   British pound out of the European monetary system in 1992 and became a
   billionaire in the process. At that time, however, Soros had to take the
   trouble to speculate with real currency.

   "Buying real bonds is much too expensive," says a bond trader today,
   explaining that this is something that only traditionalists still do. The
   new speculators are intent on quickly getting in and out of
   country-specific risk. Borrowing or even buying a bond, says the bond
   trader, would be too cumbersome.

   Because this is much more easily achieved with a CDS, there is a risk that
   history will repeat itself. Even Soros warns that CDSs are "instruments of
   destruction." In the first part of the financial crisis, in the years 2007
   and 2008, a sharp increase in CDS prices was partly responsible for the
   bankruptcy of US bank Bear Stearns. Speculators forced governments to bail
   out British and German banks by unscrupulously driving up the costs of
   credit insurance.

   Now the hedge fund managers are betting on the insolvency of entire
   countries. The CDS rate for Greek government bonds doubled within the
   space of a few weeks. Speculators who get in at the right time can take
   advantage of fears over Greece to turn profits of upwards of 100 percent.
   For a time, it was costing investors EUR390,000 to hedge against the
   default of a 10-year Greek treasury bond with a face value of EUR10
   million. By comparison, the cost of a CDS for a similar German government
   bond was only EUR40,000.

   The speculative rise in CDSs has a real impact, in that it fans fear in
   the markets. In early February, Greece had to offer a yield of 6.1 percent
   in order to sell its five-year bond. This is twice as much as the current
   yield on comparable German bonds.

   Cunning Deals

   Investment banks are among the biggest beneficiaries of uncertainty in the
   markets. US investment bank Goldman Sachs, in particular, has its finger
   in several pies at once: as an adviser to the beleaguered governments --
   and on the side of the hedge funds that are speculating against the
   Greeks.

   Goldman Sachs was also involved when the Greeks tried to hide their debts
   from Brussels. In 2002, the US bank helped them exchange a portion of
   their dollar and yen debts, worth $10 billion, into euro debts. Goldman
   even granted Greece a loan of EUR1 billion, which was never reported as
   such to Brussels, and collected EUR200 million for its efforts.

   Politicians are now beginning to frown upon these cunning deals. "It will
   be a disgrace if it turns out to be true that banks, which already took us
   to the brink of disaster, were also involved in the falsification of
   statistics in Greece," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in a speech
   last Wednesday in the north-eastern German state of Mecklenburg-Western
   Pomerania.

   Nevertheless, even the new Greek government, which is breaking with many
   of the traditions of its predecessors, cannot manage without the US
   investment bank. Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank were among the six banks
   that placed Greek government bonds worth EUR8 billion in early February.
   Perhaps the Greeks were trying to remain on good terms with the two
   powerful banks. Both were among the most active traders in CDSs, which are
   often traded on behalf of hedge funds.

   Fallen from Favor

   Of course, there are also the more traditional speculative transactions.
   In the week before last, speculators bet a record $10 billion on a falling
   euro on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange alone.

   "The pressure on the euro isn't going away," predicts Sophia Drossos, a
   native of Greece who runs the currency strategy division at US investment
   bank Morgan Stanley. "The downside risks to the euro right now are the
   largest that they have ever been since the single currency was launced."
   It has fallen out of favor, she says, and that sort of thing doesn't
   change that quickly.

   Not even a bailout of Greece would drive away the speculators, says Marc
   Chandler, chief currency strategist at the New York private bank Brown
   Brothers Harriman. If that happened, "the market might go after other
   countries that have similar DNA," he said. "And by DNA here I mean
   financial DNA: large deficits, current account deficits. And so, if Greece
   is bailed out by Europe in some fashion, it could be: let's go after
   Spain. Or: Let's see how deep the pockets are really going to be."

   It is precisely this concern -- namely, that they will have to come to the
   aid of one heavily indebted country after another, until they end up with
   a deficit of their own that's become too big to handle -- hat has Europe's
   politicians so worried. But do they even have a choice?

   German Finance Minister Wolfgang Scha:uble, a member of the center-right
   Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and his senior staff aren't just worried
   about the euro. They are also concerned that the German banking sector
   could be thrown out of balance once again if Greece defaults on its debt.

   Like Lehman All Over Again

   The senior Finance Ministry officials were alarmed by a letter from Jochen
   Sanio, the president of Germany's Federal Financial Supervisory Authority,
   known as BaFin. In the letter, which was addressed to Jo:rg Asmussen, a
   senior Finance Ministry official, Sanio urgently warned that the
   consequences of a Greek default could resemble the effects of the Lehman
   bankruptcy.

   German banks could probably cope with a Greek default, but if it led to
   the financial collapse of other countries, like Italy, Spain or Portugal,
   the consequences for the banking sector could be catastrophic, Sanio
   warns. If this happened, the financial market crisis would only get worse.

   In his letter, the BaFin president calculates what could happen to
   individual banks if securities from these countries lost 30, 50 or even 70
   percent of their value. The results are horrifying. According to Sanio's
   scenario, banks that were already hard hit by the effects of the Lehman
   bankruptcy would be the most vulnerable, particularly German mortgage
   lender Hypo Real Estate (HRE), which has since been nationalized.

   According to BaFin, HRE, which had to be propped up in late 2008 with
   government loan guarantees worth about EUR100 billion, holds by far the
   largest amount of Greek debt out of all German banks, with a total volume
   of EUR9.1 billion.

   What makes the situation so contentious is the fact that HRE increased its
   inventory of the troubled securities by almost 50 percent between March
   and September 2009 -- which was precisely the period in which it was being
   bailed out with government funds.

   Downward Spiral

   But other problem banks would also be affected by a Greek default.
   According to BaFin calculations, partially nationalized Commerzbank
   carries EUR4.6 billion in exposure to Greek debt. Germany's ailing
   state-owned banks are also heavily exposed, with LBBW and BayernLB having
   an exposure of EUR2.7 billion and EUR1.5 billion respectively.

   On the whole, German lenders hold about EUR32 billion in Greek securities,
   as well as another EUR10 billion in insurance holdings.

   The situation would spin completely out of control if, in addition to
   Greece, countries like Portugal, Italy, Ireland and Spain got into
   difficulties. German banks have acquired debt from these countries with a
   total volume of EUR522.4 billion. This is about 20 percent of the total
   amount owed to German banks by foreign countries, according to a BaFin
   internal memo. German banks are apparently the "principal creditors in
   Spain and Ireland, and the second-most important creditor in Italy."

   In their report, the BaFin experts even draw parallels to one of the
   biggest national defaults in recent years. "As in the case of Argentina,
   the countries named could face the beginning of a downward spiral," they
   write. As revenues decline in these countries, they are forced to impose
   drastic savings measures, which then hamper economic development.

   "The main risk for the German financial sector lies in the collective
   difficulties of the PIIGS countries," the BaFin memo reads. "Greece could
   possibly be the trigger for this."

   Betting on a Greek Insolvency

   The German financial regulators also assign a significant portion of the
   blame for the current situation to speculators. "Among hedge funds, in
   particular, there are those that are betting on a Greek insolvency and a
   collapse of the euro zone."

   If a number of countries do in fact default, the BaFin experts believe
   that the euro zone will have arrived at the limit of its effectiveness.
   The EU countries, together with international central banks, could perhaps
   fend off attacks on Greece, but, as the BaFin document warns, "in the
   event of speculation and financing problems in all of the PIIGS countries,
   serious problems could arise, along with substantial market disruptions."

   Partly as a result of the pressure caused by the Sanio letter, Scha:uble
   and Asmussen decided to clear the way for assistance to Greece. There are
   essentially three options, although two have already been discarded. The
   first option -- a joint bond issued by all the euro zone members -- was
   considered unrealistic right from the start. Assistance from the
   International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has helped countries out of
   financial crises in all regions of the world, is no longer an option.
   Scha:uble, for one, would consider it an embarrassment if Europeans were
   unable to help themselves.

   This leaves the third option, bilateral assistance, which Scha:uble has
   discussed with his French counterpart, Christine Lagarde. The French are
   particularly insistent that action be taken quickly, a point President
   Nicolas Sarkozy has repeatedly made with Chancellor Angela Merkel.

   Rescue Package

   Early last week, the German-French duo brought the remaining finance
   ministers in the euro group on board. Officially, all are still cloaked in
   silence and behaving as if bailouts will not be necessary. Nevertheless,
   the package of measures is beginning to take shape.

   The German Finance Ministry expects support for Greece to amount to
   between EUR20 billion and EUR25 billion. All the members of the euro group
   are expected to participate, including those, like Spain and Portugal, who
   also might find themselves needing help soon. The individual countries'
   contributions will be determined on the basis of their respective shares
   of the capital of the European Central Bank (ECB). Under this scheme,
   Germany would be responsible for about 20 percent, or EUR4 billion - EUR5
   billion.

   The assistance is to consist partly of loans and partly of loan
   guarantees. KfW, the German state-owned development bank, will process the
   German share. Scha:uble's experts want to tie the measures to strict
   requirements. For example, one credit tranche would only be transferred
   once the Greek government demonstrated that it had begun reforms of its
   pension system. The procedure is copied from the IMF. But is it legally
   valid?

   For years, the validity of Article 125 of the "Treaty on the Functioning
   of the European Union," one of the EU's core treaties, was considered
   irrefutable in Germany's political debates. The regulation bars the euro
   countries from helping each other get out of debt.

   This passage is also partly responsible for having convinced a skeptical
   German population to accept the introduction of the euro. Article 125
   "tolerates no compromises," says Otmar Issing, the former chief economist
   at the European Central Bank.

   New Provisions

   Hence the legal experts in the German Finance Ministry had to go to great
   lengths in order to justify the planned bilateral assistance. After an
   initial review, they concluded that the measures were inadmissible.
   Scha:uble was irate and ordered his staff to continue their review until
   all objections had been swept aside.

   Now, the official version is that the participating countries will not
   assume any of Greece's debt, which would be forbidden under the treaty.
   Instead, they will add new debt to the existing debt, something that the
   rules do not prohibit.

   Scha:uble's officials know all too well that the interventions will
   nevertheless strain the framework of the agreement and the equilibrium of
   the currency union. For that reason, they intend to introduce new
   future-oriented provisions once the current measures have been taken.

   They believe that the Stability and Growth Pact, the sole purpose of which
   is to coordinate the debt policies of member states, is no longer
   adequate, and that the euro countries will have to coordinate their
   economic policies with each other more effectively in the future. They
   also say that it will be necessary to develop a regulated procedure for
   national insolvencies within the framework of the euro group.

   European Inflation Union

   The Finance Ministry officials are also thinking about creating a new
   institution, modeled after the IMF, to handle future bailout efforts. This
   European fund would provide financing to countries in difficulty.

   It is still unclear how the new rescue fund will be financed. There are
   two conceivable options: Each member state's contribution could be based
   on either its share of ECB capital or the level of its deficit.

   The second solution would be fairer: the worse a country's financial
   policy, the higher its contribution. In other words, the biggest sinners
   would be required to pay the highest indulgence.

   Such an institution doesn't exist yet, which means that European
   politicians will have to make do with what they have. The financial
   strength of the donor countries could soon be depleted. This could force
   ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet to buy up the debt of the countries
   facing bankruptcy -- which is tantamount to printing money. Although this
   is prohibited under the Maastricht statutes, the EU finance ministers
   already demonstrated that the treaty could be amended if necessary when,
   in 2005, they stealthily relaxed the 3 percent criterion for government
   debt.

   Such a bailout would come at a high price: It would turn the European
   monetary union into an inflation union.

   ARMIN MAHLER, CHRISTOPH PAULY, CHRISTIAN REIERMANN, WOLFGANG REUTER,
   THOMAS SCHULZ

   Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan

  

 Marko Papic

  

 STRATFOR

 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900

 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A

 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094

 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334

 marko.papic@stratfor.com

 www.stratfor.com

 --

  

 Marko Papic

  

 STRATFOR

 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900

 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A

 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094

 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334

 marko.papic@stratfor.com

 www.stratfor.com

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

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</description>
    <date>2010-02-23 01:33:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2001-03-13 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1760720_re-fwd-can-the-euro-zone-cope-with-a-national-bankruptcy-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Lisa.Hintz@moodys.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1762408</id>
    <title>Re: [Eurasia] B3 - GREECE/ ECON - Greece says budget cuts will pass,
 but power	cuts threaten
</title>
    <description>   But a meeting they have held every Sunday since their protest began drew
   far fewer people than previously on Sunday.

   I think the unions are far more interesting to me, especially as they
   start fighting against privatization plans (so rolling blackout thing is
   more serious than these "indignant" yahoos).

   This goes back to what Marc/Preisler were talking about in terms of
   Spanish anti-austerity protesters being pro-EU. These guys have no real
   political alternative. This is what we articulated in the annual. Their
   only "alternative" is to quit the euro, but they don't really want to do
   that.

   It is only in the core that there is a true political alternative:
   Euroskepticism.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Benjamin Preisler" &lt;ben.preisler@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "alerts" &lt;alerts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, June 20, 2011 8:39:09 AM
   Subject: B3 - GREECE/ ECON - Greece says budget cuts will pass, but
   power        cuts threaten

   Greece says budget cuts will pass, but power cuts threaten

   20 June 2011, 14:24 CET

   http://www.eubusiness.com/news-eu/greece-eurozone-imf.aqm/

   (ATHENS) - Greece will get new tough budget action through parliament in a
   week's time to obtain vital funding, the government said on Monday despite
   power cuts and a general strike threat.

   Ahead of another visit by Greece's mission of creditors, the government
   also faces a vote of confidence called by the prime minister to ensure
   support in parliament for yet deeper measures to avert bankruptcy in the
   face of distress and anger among the Greek people.

   A finance ministry source told AFP that the government was "confident
   about the adoption of this plan by parliament," where the Socialist
   government holds 155 seats out of 300 in a vote on June 28.

   And an EU source in Athens said representatives from the European Union,
   the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank, which last
   year bailed out Greece, would be visiting the Greek capital this week.

   Members of the tripartite mission, also known as the 'troika' in Greece,
   will be in Athens on Tuesday and Wednesday for talks with newly-appointed
   Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos, the EU source told AFP.

   The finance ministry has indicated that the troika mission chiefs who have
   held quarterly audits of Greek finances will be heading the latest visit.

   Eurozone finance ministers said overnight that the next slice of 12
   billion euros ($17 billion) of an EU-IMF rescue package agreed last year
   would be released early in July to avoid default on current spending.

   But this slice of a total first loan of 110 billion euros would be
   released strictly on condition that Greece adopts the latest round of
   highly unpopular measures.

   Meanwhile on Monday Prime Minister George Papandreou, who shuffled his
   government on Friday as part of a new drive to tackle the debt, faced
   further difficult talks in Brussels on a big second rescue which Greece
   needs to have a hope of avoiding default on its debt in the months and
   years ahead.

   For the European Union, the issue of a second rescue raises much wider
   problems of how to ensure that banks, insurance companies and investment
   funds holding Greek debt bonds bear part of the cost.

   But they want to achieve this without provoking mayhem on financial
   markets and putting the eurozone at increased risk.

   The European Central Bank has warned EU policymakers that if the terms of
   a redrawing of Greek debt repayments is badly received on financial
   markets, the central bank may cease providing lifeline funding to the
   Greek banking system.

   Papandreou, facing opposition from some of his own members of parliament
   and lacking support from the opposition right-wing parties, called on
   Sunday a vote of confidence to bring his own supporters into line. The
   vote is expected during Tuesday night.

   Greek observers say that Papandreou should win both the confidence vote
   and the vote on the new budget measures, but could still face opposition
   politically and on the streets.

   The main Greek trade union organisation GSEE has called a general strike
   lasting 48 hours on a day to be chosen depending on events in parliament.

   The electricity generating company DEI has warned that the country could
   be hit by power cuts.

   This is because on Monday the union representing its workforce called for
   a rolling strike against a condition by the EU and International Monetary
   Fund that the business be privatised by next year as part of a wave of
   privatisations to reduce debt.

   This powerful union has long been courted by the governing Socialist
   Party. But a union official Costas Koutsodimas told radio Flash that the
   Greek people supported the employees in fighting the "knock-down sale of
   the flagship in the public sector."

   The groups of so-called "indignant" people protesting against cutbacks and
   reforms by the government, who have been camping in Syntagma square in
   central Athens since May 24 said they would hold a new demonstration late
   on Tuesday during the vote of confidence.

   But a meeting they have held every Sunday since their protest began drew
   far fewer people than previously on Sunday.

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-06-20 15:58:25</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2011-03-05 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1762408_re-eurasia-b3-greece-econ-greece-says-budget-cuts-will-pass.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1762924</id>
    <title>RE: More from MX1: Big meet in Fort Bliss
</title>
    <description>Looks to me like the Mexicans have set up a task force with Gulf, Sinaloa,
and LFM.



-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
Sent: Monday, March 01, 2010 3:47 PM
To: scott stewart
Cc: 'Marko Papic'; 'Alex Posey'; 'Fred Burton'; 'Ben West ;'
Subject: Re: More from MX1: Big meet in Fort Bliss

I understand the U.S. agents would be a task force under the direction
of the US Embassy MX City.  Does that jell w/what MX1 understands?

scott stewart wrote:
&gt; Marko,
&gt; 
&gt;  
&gt; 
&gt; Can you please ask him about this?
&gt; 
&gt;  
&gt; 
&gt;
http://gruporeforma.elnorte.com/Libre/Offlines/Mty/Frontera/grid2.asp?Previs
ta=0&amp;IdSemana=7&amp;IdCaso=3743&amp;paginaactual=1&amp;llevo=20&amp;conjuntoactual=1&amp;contado
r2=1&amp;EstadoSelecc=1
&gt;
&lt;http://gruporeforma.elnorte.com/Libre/Offlines/Mty/Frontera/grid2.asp?Previ
sta=0&amp;IdSemana=7&amp;IdCaso=3743&amp;paginaactual=1&amp;llevo=20&amp;conjuntoactual=1&amp;contad
or2=1&amp;EstadoSelecc=1&gt;
&gt; 
&gt;  
&gt; 
&gt; WOW
&gt; 
&gt;  
&gt; 
&gt;  
&gt; 
&gt;  
&gt; 
&gt; *From:* Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
&gt; *Sent:* Monday, March 01, 2010 3:28 PM
&gt; *To:* Alex Posey; 'Fred Burton'; Ben West ;; scott stewart
&gt; *Subject:* More from MX1: Big meet in Fort Bliss
&gt; 
&gt;  
&gt; 
&gt; NOT FOR PUBLICATION (he sounded serious about it too)
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; Big meeting just went down in Fort Bliss... (source did not say he was
&gt; part of it, but I know his movements and he was in El Paso over the
&gt; weekend) first of its kind. It involved U.S. and Mexican government
&gt; working on formalizing a process by which U.S. undercover operatives in
&gt; Mexico ("there is a shitton of them") operating south of the border can
&gt; talk to the Mexican federal police. Source says that thus far U.S.
&gt; agents have been completely excluded from the law enforcement process in
&gt; Mexico. This is simply because Mexico City has thus far been unwilling
&gt; to recognize that U.S. undercover agents roam the streets of Mexican
&gt; cities -- they know they do, but they have been unwilling to even
&gt; recognize it. Because of this fundamental break, U.S. law enforcement
&gt; has had to resort to simply tracking Mexican cartels, or at the extreme
&gt; kidnapping them to put them before a judge in the U.S.
&gt; 
&gt; Source says the Mexican government has decided to change this long
&gt; standing policy. This is what the Ft. Bliss meet was about.
&gt; 
&gt; Source says that U.S. undercover agents will now be able to communicate
&gt; to Mexican federal police. Furthermore, Mexican federal police will be
&gt; able to count on U.S. undercover agents for more intelligence sharing.
&gt; Source says that the problem thus far for Mexican intelligence
&gt; operatives has been adapting to hunting down cartels. They simply have
&gt; no institutional experience with that. Source says that a lot of Mexican
&gt; intel has come up to him telling him how they were trained to hunt down
&gt; political dissidents and that they need help from DEA and FBI on how to
&gt; deal with drug cartels.
&gt; 
&gt; Therefore, there is a new spirit of interoperability between the two on
&gt; the border when it comes to U.S. undercover agents.
&gt; 
&gt; The problem is, MX1 indicates, that he is not sure the Fort Bliss
&gt; meeting was secure. He fears that cartels are everywhere and that they
&gt; have penetrated both U.S. and Mexican law enforcement. He says this can
&gt; go two ways: either suddenly all leads will go cold, or interoperability
&gt; will succeed and a lot more cartels will be taken down because U.S.
&gt; undercover can use Mexican federal police as their bludgeoning tool on
&gt; the border.
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; -- 
&gt; 
&gt;  
&gt; 
&gt; Marko Papic
&gt; 
&gt;  
&gt; 
&gt; STRATFOR 
&gt; 
&gt; Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
&gt; 
&gt; 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
&gt; 
&gt; Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
&gt; 
&gt; TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
&gt; 
&gt; FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
&gt; 
&gt; marko.papic@stratfor.com &lt;mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; 
&gt; www.stratfor.com &lt;http://www.stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; 
</description>
    <date>2010-03-01 21:53:05</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-09 05:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1762924_re-more-from-mx1-big-meet-in-fort-bliss-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ben.west@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>fred.burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alex.posey@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1767718</id>
    <title>Re: [Eurasia] G3 - ITALY - Berlusconi says EconMin Tremonti primary
 candidate to	be successor
</title>
    <description>   This would actually be very good news. Tremonti, like Draghi, is that
   typical Lombardian who knows how to run shit. When you think Italian --
   because we are in the US -- most of us don't think efficiency. But
   Northern Italians are probably the most productive people on the planet.
   Tremonti is from Sondrio, which is practically Switzerland how north it
   is. Tremonti is also strongly fiscally conservative, if he became the PM
   the markets would fucking go nuts. He could by his very personna probably
   shave off a full percent of Italian bond yields.

   Draghi, by the way, is from Rome, so he is less "Lombardian". So I
   actually have less confidence in Draghi than Tremonti.

   Either way, the problem for Tremonti is that he does not really have his
   own base. He is sort of a Lega Norde wing of Berlusconi's Forza Italia. So
   that is weird. I feel like he may be a sane guy in an insane house, which
   could mean that he goes in there, tries to fix shit, and gets canned. The
   sort of guy that should run ministry of finance, but you put him in charge
   and he gets whacked (think Kudrin in Russia).

   Either way, interesting move by Silvio. It could either get Tremonti
   wacked, or fix Italy.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Michael Wilson" &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "alerts" &lt;alerts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, May 4, 2011 2:35:40 PM
   Subject: G3 - ITALY - Berlusconi says EconMin Tremonti primary candidate
   to        be successor

   saying this now helps repair feelings in the northern league

   Italy's Berlusconi names possible successor
   http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110504/wl_nm/us_italy_berlusconi_tremonti
   By Paulo Biondi Paulo Biondi a** 43 mins ago

   ROME (Reuters) a** Italy's Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi named Economy
   Minister Giulio Tremonti as a potential successor to lead the center-right
   if he decides not to stand again in elections planned for 2013.

   The comments, during a television discussion show to be aired on
   Wednesday, follow a series of attacks on Tremonti in a newspaper owned by
   the Berlusconi family, underlining the uncertain climate in the
   center-right.
   Berlusconi, who has previously identified Justice Minister Angelino Alfano
   as a potential successor, said he would consider handing over the
   leadership of the government if a strong candidate emerges so he could
   focus on other duties within his ruling PDL party.
   "If it is necessary for the center right to name me as a candidate to lead
   the government, then I will not step down," Berlusconi said during the
   recording of Porta a Porta, a well-known talk show on state-owned RAI
   television.

   "But on the other hand if other personalities emerge, and we have several,
   Tremonti primarily...then I would be happy to maybe stay in politics but
   to focus on the PDL, leaving the leadership of the government to others,"
   he said.

   Tremonti, widely credited for helping to shield Italy from the financial
   crisis, has close links to the Northern League, Berlusconi's sometimes
   unruly coalition ally.

   But his iron grip on spending decisions, his often abrasive personal style
   and perceptions that he is positioning himself to lead a post-Berlusconi
   government, have irritated many ministerial colleagues and other PDL
   leaders.

   Berlusconi has recently sought to play down signs of a government split
   after a newspaper owned by his brother carried a series of articles
   attacking Tremonti.

   Last week he issued a statement expressing full support for his economy
   minister, after many Italian newspapers reported that Tremonti had
   threatened to resign.

   The comments come ahead of regional elections that will show how badly the
   ruling center-right has been damaged by criminal cases against the Italian
   Prime Minister.

   Berlusconi faces several trials on charges including fraud and paying for
   sex with a teenaged nightclub dancer when she was below the legal age
   limit of 18. He denies all charges.

   (Writing by Catherine Hornby)

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com


   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-05-04 23:20:47</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1767718_re-eurasia-g3-italy-berlusconi-says-econmin-tremonti-primary.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>peter.zeihan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1767929</id>
    <title>Re: [Eurasia] Catalonia Autonomy Statute
</title>
    <description>   This is interesting because the Catalan goes over the Basque in "tone"
   only. I don't see anything substantial that the Catalan gains in wording
   its constitutional statute the way it does. Seems to me like "Scaling
   back" would be simple. Of course that would be extremely difficult to get
   the Catalan's to agree on.

   Elodie, can we get a little bit of background on how the statutes were
   designed to begin with. Why did it chose the language it did?

   Elodie Dabbagh wrote:

     It does not seem like there is a legal way to appeal the decision of the
     Spanish Constitutional Court. I do not think there is any other way to
     change the decision other than writing a new statute.

     Also, I have compared the Catalan and the Basque statute. The CC
     decision does not deny any right to the Catalans that is granted to the
     Basques by the Basque autonomy statute. The Catalan statute goes much
     further than the Basque one. It does not seem to me that the CC censored
     major major stuff. The constitutional changes seem pretty moderate to me
     and the statute still consecrate Catalonia's autonomy statute.

     I have also compiled all the articles the Spanish CC declared
     unconstitutional (I am sending that in a word doc).

      

     Comparison Basque autonomy statute / Catalan autonomy statute:

     The statute of autonomy of the Basque country was established in 1979.

      

     Article 1 of the Preliminary title states that "The Basque People or
     &lt;&lt;Euskal-Herria&gt;&gt;, as an expression of their nationality and in order to
     accede to self-government, constitute an Autonomous Community within the
     Spanish State under the name of &lt;&lt;Euskadi&gt;&gt; or the Basque Country, in
     accordance with the Constitution and with this Statute, which lays down

     its basic institutional rules."

      

     The first article of the Preliminary title of the Catalan autonomy
     statute says: "Catalonia, as a nationality, exercises its
     self-government constituted as an autonomous community in accordance
     with the Constitution and with this Estatut, which is its basic
     institutional law."

     The two articles basically say the same, except that the Basque one
     states that the Basque people constitute an Autonomous Community within
     the Spanish State. The CC did not say anything about this article (the
     term "nationality" is okay for the CC - I told you it was not earlier).

      

     The preamble states that "the Parliament of Catalonia has defined
     Catalonia as a nation by an ample majority. The Spanish Constitution, in
     its second Article, recognises the national reality of Catalonia as a
     nationality." This is what the CC declared without legal effect. In this
     sense, the Catalan statute goes further than the Basque one, which does
     not mention a single time the Basque country as a nation.

      

     Regarding the language issue, the Basque statute does not go as far as
     the Catalan one.

      

     Article 6 Preliminary Title:

     1. &lt;&lt;Euskera&gt;&gt;, the language of the Basque People, shall, like Spanish,
     have the

     status of an official language in Euskadi. All its inhabitants have the
     right to know

     and use both languages.

      

     Articles 6 paragraphs 1 &amp; 2 of the Catalan statute also state that there
     are two official languages. However, art. 6 - 1 says that "Catalan is
     the language of normal and preferential use in Public Administration
     bodies and in the public media of Catalonia, and is also the language of
     normal use for teaching and learning in the education system." The part
     about Catalan as a "preferred" language was considered unconstitutional.

      

     Catalan: ARTICLE 218. AUTONOMY AND FINANCIAL POWERS  

     2. The Generalitat has power in matters of local financing, within the
     framework established by the Constitution and the State regulations.
     This power may include the legislative capacity to establish and
     regulate local government taxes and includes the power to establish the
     criteria for distribution of shares of the budget of the Generalitat.
     The underlined sentence was considered unconstitutional.

      

     Basque: Article 42.-The revenue of the General Treasury of the Basque
     Country shall

     consist of:

     b) The proceeds of the Autonomous Community's own taxes that may be

     established by the Basque Parliament, in accordance with the provisions

     of article 157 of the Constitution and as stipulated in the Organic Law
     on

     the financing of the Autonomous Communities.

     Technically, the two articles say that the autonomous Basque and Catalan
     communities can establish local taxes. The Basque article however
     explicitly says that it will be in accordance with Spanish national
     laws. The Catalan article does not say that.

     --
     Elodie Dabbagh
     STRATFOR
     Analyst Development Program

   --

   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

   Marko Papic

   Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

   STRATFOR

   700 Lavaca Street - 900

   Austin, Texas

   78701 USA

   P: + 1-512-744-4094

   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-07-12 19:57:25</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-18 22:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1767929_re-eurasia-catalonia-autonomy-statute-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1767963</id>
    <title>[Eurasia] SPAIN - Catalonia - History of the Statute of Autonomy
</title>
    <description>   The project was rewritten several times. The Statute that was approved is
   the result of long negotiations. Below is the history of the Catalan
   Statute of Autonomy.  Slightly confusing, don't hesitate to ask questions
   if you don't understand.

   Catalonia first obtained a Statute of Autonomy in 1932, but the law was
   abolished by Franco after the Spanish Civil War.

   The Basque region has always agitated for autonomy. Several statutes of
   self-government were in effect in the 19th century. In 1937, the statute
   was abolished.

   Catalonia and the Basque region both obtained again an autonomy status in
   1979, one year after the new Spanish Constitution was written.

   The Basque region is until now regulated by the 1979 Statute of autonomy.

   The reform of the 1979 Catalan Statute of autonomy was initiated by
   progressive Catalan parties when Convergencia i Unio, a coalition of
   center-right Catalan parties, was in power. During the 2003 Presidential
   campaign, Jose Luis Zapatero had promised he would support the new
   statute. In November 2003, Convergencia i Unio lost power. The new Catalan
   government was then composed of three parties: The Socialist Party of
   Catalonia, Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya, and Iniciativa per Catalunya
   Verds (Green Party).

   Negotiations regarding the new statute begin between the three parties in
   power and Convergencia i Unio (which had kept the largest number of seats
   at the Parliament). An agreement was quickly reached regarding the
   definition of Catalonia as a Nation, the recognition of the two languages
   as official languages. It was more difficult to find a compromise about
   the financing of the Catalan region. It was so controversial that
   Catalonia's President and opposition leader Artur Mas came to an agreement
   on secularism at school and the financing of the Generalitat only the day
   before the vote.

   On September 30, 2005, after two years of negotiations, the Spanish
   Parliament approved a large part of the new Statute of Autonomy. On
   November 2, 2005, the Popular Party had appealed the law, but the appeal
   was rejected by the Constitutional Court because the vote had not taken
   place yet. After the vote, a commission was created to examine the text
   and submit a notice to the Congress of deputes (lower chamber). It was
   very difficult again to agree on the new statute and financing of
   Catalonia, the four Catalan parties fighting over it. Finally, in January
   2006, Zapatero and the Catalan opposition leader Artur Mas agreed. The
   document was approved at the Congress of Deputes and the Senate by all the
   parties except for the Popular Party.

   During the campaign for the referendum, Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya
   (ERP) allies to the Popular Party against the statute because the project
   had been changed a lot. On June 18, 2006, the referendum took place.
   Turnout is 49%, 73.9% of the voters voted in favor of the Statute, 26.72%
   voted against it.
</description>
    <date>2010-07-12 22:32:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-18 22:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1767963_-eurasia-spain-catalonia-history-of-the-statute-of-autonomy-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>elodie.dabbagh@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1768056</id>
    <title>Re: FOR EDIT - SECURITY WEEKLY - Russian intelligence network taken
	down	in US
</title>
    <description>   Ben West wrote:

         Takedown of a Russian intelligence operation in the US

          

         The United States Department of Justice announced June 28 that an
         FBI counterintelligence investigation had resulted in the arrest of
         ten individuals on June 27 suspected of acting as undeclared agents
         of a foreign country - eight of the individuals were also accused of
         money laundering. An eleventh individual named in the criminal
         complaint was arrested in Cyprus on June 29 and has since posted
         bail. Five of the defendants appeared before a federal magistrate in
         the Southern District of New York US court in Manhattan on June 28.
         Three others appeared in the Eastern District of Virginia US federal
         court and two more in the US federal district court of
         Massachusetts, in Boston.

          

         The number of arrested suspects in this case makes this
         counter-intelligence investigation one of the biggest in US history.
         According to the criminal complaint the FBI had been investigating
         some of these individuals as long as ten years - recording
         conversations the suspects had in their home, intercepting radio
         transmitted and electronic messages and conducting surveillance on
         them both in and outside the United States. The case provides
         contemporary proof that the classic tactics of intelligence
         gathering and counter-intelligence measures are still being used by
         the US and Russia..

          

         Cast of Characters (according to details released in the criminal
         complaint)

          

         Christopher Metsos

         -         Acted as intermediary between the Russian UN mission in
         New York and Richard Murphy, Cynthia Murphy, Michael Zottoli and
         Patricia Mills.

         -         He traveled to and from Canada

         -         Met with Richard Murphy at least four times between
         February, 2001 and April, 2005 at a restaurant in New York

         -       First surveilled in 2001 in meetings with other suspects. 

         -         Left the US June 17 and detained in Cyprus June 29.

          

         Richard and Cynthia Murphy

         -         First surveilled by FBI in 2001 during meetings with
         Mestos

         -         Also met with the 3rd secretary in Russia's mission to the
         UN

         -         Communicated electronically with Moscow

         -         His safety box was searched in 2006 where agents
         discovered a birth certificate claiming he was born in Philadelphia,
         Pennsylvania. Local officials in Philidelphia claim to not have that
         birth certificate on record.

         - had electronic communications with Moscow

         -         Traveled to Moscow via Italy in February, 2010

          

          

         Donald Heathfield and Tracey Foley

         -         FBI searched a safe deposit box listed under their names
         in January, 2001

         -         Discover that Donald Heathfield's identity had been taken
         from a deceased man by the same name in Canada

         -         Engaged in electronic communication with Moscow

         -         Foley traveled to Moscow via Paris in March, 2010

          

         Michael Zottoli and Patricia Mills

         -         First FBI surveillance in June, 2004 during meeting with
         Richard Murphy

         -         Also had electronic communication with Moscow

          

         Vicky Pelaez and Juan Lazaro

         -         Surveilled meeting at a public park in an unidentified
         South American country in January, 2000

         -         Evidence gathered against Pelaez was the first out of the
         ten operatives

         -         Appeared to only communicate with a diplomat at the
         Russian embassy in the unidentified South American country

          -  also had electronic communication with Moscow

         Their Mission

          

         The FBI says that some of the eleven alleged undeclared agents moved
         to the United States as early as the 1990s, with some of the later
         accused (such as Anna Chapman) not arriving to the US until 2009.
         Nine of the suspects were provided with fake identities and even
         fake childhood pictures and cover stories (all part of what is known
         as a "legend") in order to establish themselves in the United State
         under "deep cover" - Chapman and Semenko used their own, Russian
         identitiy. The true nationality of the rest of the individuals is
         unknown, but several passages in the criminal complaint indicated
         that most of them were originally from Russia. Russia's Foreign
         Intelligence Service (SVR) allegedly provided the suspects with bank
         accounts, homes, cars and regular payments in order to provide
         "long-term service" inside he United States and, in return, they
         were supposed to "search [for] and develop ties in policymaking
         circles in the US".

          

         It is unclear exactly how successful the 11 accused individuals were
         at finding and developing those ties. The criminal complaint accuses
         the individuals of sending everything from information on the gold
         market from a financier in New York (a contact that Moscow
         apparently found as helpful, and encouraged further contacts with
         the source) to seeking out potential college graduates headed for
         jobs at the CIA. The criminal complaint outlines one recorded
         conversation in which Lazaro tells Pelaez that his handlers were not
         pleased with his reports because he wasn't attributing them
         properly. Pelaez then advises Lazaro to "put down any politician"
         (as in write the name of a US politician to attribute the
         information to)  in order to appease their handlers, indicating that
         the alleged operatives did not always practice scrupulous tradecraft
         in their work. Improperly identifynig sources in the field
         ultimatley hampers the value of the information, since it cannot be
         adequately assessed without knowing where it came form. If these
         kinds of shortcuts were normaly taken by Pelaez, Lazaro and others,
         then it would reduce their value to the SVR and the harm that they
         may have potentially done to the US. The suspects were allegedly
         instructed by their operators in the US and Russia to not pursue
         high level government jobs, as their legends were not strong enough
         to withstand a significant background investigation, but they were
         certainly encouraged to make contact with high level government
         officials to have a finger on the pulse of policymaking sentiment in
         Washington.

          

         Tradecraft

          

         The criminal complaint alleges that the suspects used traditional
         tradecraft of the clandestine services to communicate with each
         other and send reports to their operators. The alleged operators
         transmitted messages to Moscow containing their reports encrypted in
         radiograms - short burst radio transmissions that appears as morse
         code - invisible ink and met in third countries for payment and
         briefings. They used brush passes (the act of quickly exchanging
         materials discretely) flash meets (apparently innocuous, brief
         encounters) to exchange information, equipment and to transfer
         money. The complaint also gave examples of operatives using coded
         phrases with each other and with their operators to confirm each
         other's identities.

          

         There were new twists, as well. Operatives used email to set up
         electronic dead drops to transmit encrypted intelligence reports to
         Moscow and several operatives were found to have similar computer
         programs that used steganography (the practice of embedding
         information in seemingly innocuous images) to encrypt messages.
         Chapman and Semenko used private, wireless networks hosted by a
         laptop programmed to only communicate with another specific laptop.
         FBI agents claim to have identified such networks (and may have
         intercepted the messages transmitted) temporarily set up while a
         suspect and known Russian diplomat were in proximity together. These
         meets occurred frequently and allowed operatives and their operators
         to communicate covertly without actually being seen together.

          

         The operations were largely run out of Russia's UN mission in New
         York, meaning that when face-to-face meetings were required,
         declared diplomats from the UN mission would do the job. They handed
         off cash to Christopher Metsos on at least two occasions, who in
         turn distributed the cash to various other operatives (which
         provided the grounds for the charge of money laundering) but the
         actual reports and information gathered from the field appears to
         have gone directly to Russia, according to the criminal complaint.

          

         It is important to note that the accused individuals were not
         charged with espionage - the charge of acting as a non-declared
         agent of a foreign state is less serious. The criminal complaint
         never revealed that any of the eleven individuals received or
         transmitted classified information. This doesn't mean that the
         suspects weren't committing espionage (certainly investigators will
         learn more about their activities during interrogation and during
         preparation for the trial) but according to their original guidance
         from Moscow, these individuals were tasked with establishing deep
         cover. This means that the suspects were supposed to position
         themselves so that they would gain access to valuable information
         (and here it is important to point out that "valuable" is not
         synonomous with "classified") through their established occupation
         or social life. This allows agents to get access to what they want
         without running unnessecary operational security risks to do so. Any
         intelligence operation must balance operational security with the
         need to gather intelligence. Too much security and the operative
         isn't able to do anything, too aggressive of information collection
         and the handlers risk losing an intelligence asset. The fact that
         these people were deep cover means that the SVR had likely invested
         quite a bit of time and money into cultivating and training these
         people - likely well before they arrived in the US during the early
         to mid 1990s. We can see that balance in this group of individuals.
         They are certainly actively meeting with potential sources, sending
         back reports to Moscow and interacting with declared Russian
         diplomats in the US, all of which bring an inherent risk of being
         caught. However, they certainly took security measures, too. There
         is no evidence that they attempted to reach out to people that would
         have fallen outside their natural professional and social circles,
         which would have raised suspcion. In many ways, these individuals
         acted more as recruiters, seeking out people with access to valuable
         information, rather than agents trying to gain access to that
         information first hand. However, it must be reiterated that all we
         knnow now is based on what was released in the criminal complaint.
         An investigation that lasted this long surely has stacks of evidence
         (much of it likely classified) that wasn't included in the
         complaint. 

          

         Counterintelligence

          

         However, the network of operatives was under heavy surveillance by
         US counterintelligence agents. FBI agents in Boston, New York and
         Washington DC maintained surveillance on the suspects over a ten
         year period, employing its elite Special Surveillance Group to track
         suspects in person; video and audio recorders in their homes and at
         meeting places to record communications; searches at their homes and
         of security deposit boxes at banks to search for sensitive
         information; intercepted email and electronic communications; and
         deployed undercover agents to entrap the suspects. 

          

         Counterintelligence operations don't start out of thin air.  There
         has to be a tip or a clue that puts investigators on the trail of a
         suspected and (especially) undeclared foreign agent. As suggested by
         interview with neighbors of the arrested suspects, none of them
         displayed unusual behavior that would tip them off. All had deep
         (yet not airtight) legends going back decades that allayed everyday
         suspicion. The criminal complaint did not suggest how the US
         government came to suspect these people of reporting back to the SVR
         in Russia, however we noticed that the timing of the initiation of
         these investigations coincides with the time period that a high
         level SVR agent stationed at Russia's UN mission in New York began
         passing information to the FBI. Sergei Tretyakov (who told his story
         in the book "Comrade J" - an abbreviation of his SVR codename,
         Comrade Jean), passed information on to the FBI from within the UN
         mission from 1997 to 2000 before he defected to the US in October,
         2000. According to the criminal complaint, seven of the eleven
         suspects were connected to Russia's UN Mission.  Though, evidence of
         those connections did not come until 2004 and as late as 2010.  The
         timing of Tretyakov's cooperation with the US government and the
         timing of the initiation of the investigations against the suspects
         arrested this week suggests that Tretyakov may have been the
         original source that tipped off the US government. So far, the
         evidence is circumstantial - the timing and the location match up -
         but Tretyakov, as the SVR operative at the UN mission, certainly
         would have been in the position to know about the operations
         involving most of the individuals arrested June 27.   

          

         Why now?

          

         On the other end, the criminal complaint also does not clarify why
         the eleven suspects were arrested when they were. Nothing in the
         criminal complaint indicates why, after over ten years of
         investigation, the FBI decided to arrest the suspects on June 27. It
         is not unusual for investigations to be drawn out for years, as much
         information on tradecraft and intent can be learned by watching
         foreign intelligence agencies operate without knowing they are being
         watched. as well as revealing additional contacts and having time to
         learn more individuals in the network As long as the suspects aren't
         posing an immediate risk to national security (and judging by the
         criminal complaint, they were not) there is little reason for the US
         to show their hand to Russia and end an intelligence gathering
         operation of their own.

          

         There has been supposition that Anna Chapman was a flight risk and
         so the agents arrested her and the other in order to prevent them
         from escaping the US. However, a number of the suspects left and
         came back to the US multiple times - investigators appear not to
         have been concerned with past comings and goings, and it isn't clear
         why they would have been concerned about Anna leaving.

          

         The timing of the arrests so soon after US president Obama met with
         Russian president Medvedev also raises questions of political
         motivations. Medvedev was in DC to talk with Obama as recently as
         June 25 (when the criminal complaint was officially filed by the
         FBI) in an attempt to patch over relations between the two
         countries. Revelations of a network of undeclared foreign agents
         attempting to spy on US activities has can have a very negative
         affect on overall relations between two countries in the past. In
         this case, officials from both countries made public statements
         saying they hoped this doesn't damage ties. The timing raises the
         question of political motivation; however there is not yet any
         indication that the timing is related to political motivation.

          

         Whatever the motivation, now that the FBI has these suspects in
         custody, it will be able to interrogate them and likely gather even
         more information on the operation. The charges for now don't include
         espionage, but the FBI could very well be withholding this charge in
         order to provide an incentive for the suspects to plea bargain. We
         expect much more information on this unprecedented case to come out
         in the following weeks and months - providing reams of information
         on Russian clandestine operations and their targets in the US.

 --
 Ben West
 Terrorism and Security Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin,TX
 Cell: 512-750-9890
</description>
    <date>2010-06-30 19:35:22</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1768056_re-for-edit-security-weekly-russian-intelligence-network.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>colby.martin@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1769113</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - AUSTRALIA - Tax - CN65
</title>
    <description>   The big miners have signed an MOU with the government on the Mineral
   Resources Rent tax, which is a substantial climbdown by the government,
   but which removes one of three obstacles to Gillard as she prepares to
   call a general election at the end of August. Gillard will now tackle her
   other two immediate problems - the big increase in the number of asylum
   seekers arriving by boat, which is a hot political issue, and the
   reintroduction of some kind of move to reduce carbon emissions. Rudd's
   decision to drop the emissions trading scheme after championing climate
   change as "the most urgent issue facing the planet" were, along with the
   mining tax, the reason Labor dumped him as leader 8 days ago. 
   Gillard is likely to deal with these two issues in the next fortnight in
   order to enable her to call this early election. The asylum seekers issue
   will probably be resolved by Australia and a number of other SE Asian
   nations, including Indonesia, supporting a proposal to process asylum
   seekers to the region  on East Timor. At present those seeking asylum in
   Australia are detained on Christmas Island, which is full to overflowing. 
   The Mineral Resources Rent Tax, with its lower rate of 30 per cent, will
   only cover iron ore and coal, not all resources. On shore oil and gas,
   including coal seam gas, will now come under the Petroleum Resources rent
   tax, where the rate is 40 per cent. Other big minerals like gold,
   uranium(Australia is the world's biggest producer) and copper are not
   covered, but discussions will go on about them. 
   There is to be a task force, chaired by Don Argus, former chairman of the
   world's biggest miner, Australia-based BHP Billiton, to work through these
   and other outstanding issues, and to join in the drafting of the
   legislation.
   It is important to note that the legislation will not be presented to
   Parliament for about one year - in other words after the election. If
   Gillard loses the election, then the whole thing will be dropped, as the
   Coalition remains opposed to it. However the big miners have left
   Opposition leader Tony Abbott high and dry by signing up with the Gillard
   government - after he had supported them tooth and nail. Gillard's sure
   footed start as PM has white anted him, the polls have turned back to
   Labor, and it is hard to see her not being elected. The big miners clearly
   drew that conclusion in coming to a deal.
   The Government intends to pay for its concessions to the miners by
   dropping plans to cut company tax by one per cent for the time being. 
   Incidentally, while it is true that Australia always needs foreign
   capital, that argument can be exaggerated. First, as Matt indicated, it
   has not inconsiderable capital of its own, largely due to a very high
   savings ratio and investment in the nation's super funds rose by $30
   billion last quarter to over $1 trillion. It also has several
   multinationals with substantial overseas assets like BHP Billiton
   (mining), Westfield (property and retailing), Boral (building materials)
   Leighton Holdings (construction) Santos (oil), Macquarie (Banking) etc
   etc. It also has had no problem in attracting capital in the past 50
   years, and while some of the miners were threatening to withdraw future
   projects, they continued to invest even during the dispute, as the numbers
   show. It will still require more capital as it moves towards challenging
   Saudi Arabia as the world's leading energy producer in 15 years' time. The
   most unexploited mineral here is uranium, because the government limits
   mining to three mines and has not embraced nuclear power. 
   Colin
   On 02/07/2010, at 11:29 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

     SOURCE: CN65
     ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
     natural resources
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator.  Source is 
     well-connected politically, militarily and economically.  He has become
     a
     private businessman helping foreign companies with M&amp;As
     PUBLICATION: Yes but with no attribution
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1/2
     DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

     Gillard claims there will be no RSPT.  She says, however, that there
     will be a Mineral Resources Rent Tax.
     These are the details of the proposed changes to the tax regime:
       * coal and iron ore to be subject to the tax at a threshold rate to be
         changed from 5% to LTBR +75
       * the headline rate for these resources to be 30%
       * tax will not be restrospective, i.e. existing mines will not be
         subject to the tax until they hit the hurdles
       * oil, gas, CSG to be subject to the PRRT regime at the rate of 40%
     The changes will reduce the tax take by A$1.5 billion, but the total tax
     was anticipated to be A$9 billion per annum, so there is still a large
     tax take.
     The big issues will be as follows:
       * the government will claim that the small miners chasing other
         resources such as moly, nickel, manganese, gold, uranium, etc won't
         be affected
       * the opposition will argue it is still a massive tax take, but will
         be forced to face compliance by BHP, and Rio, so they will highlight
         the impact on small businesses that hang the off the mining industry
       * the other issue will be that the money is going from the states to
         Canberra, further exacerbating vertical fiscal imbalance

     Source also sent this link on the tax: 
     http://production.miningaustralia.com.au/news/mining-tax-slashed?utm_source=20100702&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=newsletters

     Source sent this from another of his politico buddies:
     http://www.futuretax.gov.au/documents/attachments/Fact_Sheet_resource_taxation.pdf
     It looks like no change between the RSPT and the MRRT in terms of the
     treatment of State Royalties....
     "The MRRT will also provide a full credit for state royalties paid by a
     taxpayer in respect of a mining project. Unused credits for royalties
     paid will be uplifted at the long term government bond rate plus 7 per
     cent, as per other expenses. Unused royalty credits will not be
     transferrable between projects or refundable."
     This policy debacle has been a missed opportunity for States to point
     out the flaws in Comm-State financing arrangements.  The lone voice has
     been Colin Barnett in WA, but his voice alone is not strong enough - we
     need more Liberal Premiers.  I fear this debate will have to wait
     another 5 years before we get anywhere. Nonetheless, the LNP needs to be
     ready to argue the case for more control over State revenue.  This will
     undoubtedly involve a higher and broader GST at some stage in the next
     decade.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director, Stratfor
 US Mobile: (512) 422-9335
 China Mobile: (86) 15801890731
 Email: richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-07-02 10:20:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1769113_re-insight-australia-tax-cn65-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>chapman@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>jay.young@core.stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1769589</id>
    <title>Re: [Eurasia] Fwd: SPIEGEL - An EU Protectorate
</title>
    <description>   No, it is way too harsh of words used. Greece has to report progress to
   Commission every 4 months, standard operating procedure for EU when it
   puts oversight over someone. It is oversight, more than control. Greece
   can do whatever the fuck it wants, but there are consequences... i.e. the
   Commission says Athens is doing poorly and investors collapse Greece.

   Peter Zeihan wrote:

     according to this article, the EU already has de facto financial control
     over greece?
     seriously?
     ----- Forwarded Message -----
     From: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Econ List" &lt;econ@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Tuesday, February 9, 2010 3:33:42 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
     Subject: SPIEGEL - An EU Protectorate

                               An EU Protectorate

How Brussels Is Trying to Prevent a Collapse of the Euro

     By Armin Mahler, Christian Reiermann, Wolfgang Reuter and Hans-Ju:rgen
     Schlamp

     The problems facing Greece are just the beginning. The countries
     belonging to Europe's common currency zone are drifting further and
     further apart, and national bankruptcies are a distinct possibility.
     Brussels is faced with a number of choices, none of them good.

     Men like Wilhelm No:lling, former member of the German Central Bank
     Council, and Wilhelm Hankel, an economics professor critical of the
     euro, have been out of the spotlight for years. In the 1990s, they
     fought against the introduction of the common currency, even calling on
     Germany's high court to prevent the creation of the euro zone. But none
     of it worked.

     Now both men are in demand again, and the old euro critics' beliefs are
     more relevant than ever. Were the skeptics right back then, when they
     said Europe wasn't ready for the euro zone? Were the differences too
     great and the politicians too weak to ensure a strict and stable course?

     "The euro should really be called the Icarus," Hankel suggested back
     then. He predicted the currency would meet the same end as the hero of
     Greek legend, who paid for his dream of flight with his life.

     Is the euro's high flight over now too? The news these days is alarming.
     It's causing a commotion on financial markets and intense discussion in
     capitals across Europe, as well as in Frankfurt, seat of the European
     Central Bank (ECB).

     Brussels took a hard line with Athens last week. Greece must cut costs
     drastically under close European Union supervision, a sacrifice of a
     share of its sovereignty. Risk premiums for Greek government bonds have
     risen drastically, and the country has to pay higher and higher charges.

     The Possibility of State Bankruptcies

     Accruing debt is becoming increasingly expensive for other countries in
     the euro zone as well, among them Portugal and Spain. The southern
     members of the euro zone are especially being eyed with mistrust.
     Speculators are betting that bonds will continue to fall and that,
     eventually, the countries won't be able to borrow any more money at all.
     State bankruptcies are seen as a possibility.

     "We've reached a point where it's possible to deal individual countries
     a lethal blow by downgrading their credit and boycotting their
     government bonds," No:lling warns.

     Many are now wondering how the stronger euro-zone countries should react
     -- whether it's possible to help the weaker ones without jeopardizing
     themselves and the common currency. Furthermore, there is a risk that
     euro-zone members will continue to grow apart economically, a trend that
     could cause the monetary union to eventually collapse.

     Doing nothing is not an option. In light of the national debt in Greece,
     Portugal, Spain and Ireland, the euro zone is in danger of transforming
     from a "common destiny to a common liability," No:lling says.

     And so it won't be any ordinary meeting when finance ministers from the
     16-euro zone countries meet for a regularly scheduled get-together in
     Brussels next Monday. The European Commission plans to assign each
     country homework to be completed in the coming years.

     Cohesion and Stability

     The Commission doesn't hold Greece solely responsible for the current
     euro woes. Experts close to Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner
     Joaquin Almunia say nearly every participating country is compromising
     the cohesion and stability of the common currency.

     "The combination of decreasing competitiveness and excessive
     accumulation of national debt is alarming," the experts wrote in a
     recent report, adding that if the member countries don't get their
     problems under control, it will "jeopardize the cohesion of the monetary
     union."

     Differing economic development within the euro zone and a lack of
     political coordination are to blame, they say. In the more than 10 years
     since the euro was introduced, the Commission states, it has become
     clear that simply controlling the development of member states' budgets
     is not enough. What that means, more concretely, is that the stability
     provisions stipulated in the Maastricht Treaty to regulate the common
     currency aren't working, and member states need to better coordinate
     their financial and economic policy measures.

     That is precisely what euro skeptics have said from the beginning --
     that a common currency can't work in the long run without a common
     economic and financial policy. The member countries' governments ignored
     these objections, unready to give up a further aspect of their national
     sovereignty.

     Now politicians are facing a difficult decision: Should they continue as
     they have, thus potentially undermining the euro's ability to function?
     Or should they yield a portion of their national sovereignty to
     Brussels?

     Without common policies, the individual countries drift further and
     further apart. Before the euro was introduced, exchange rate adjustments
     served to dispel tensions. Now the common currency zone lacks the option
     of adapting by revaluing currencies.

     Watching with Alarm

     EU officials are watching with alarm as the various euro-zone countries'
     competitiveness diverges sharply. The differences are especially large
     between countries like Germany, the Netherlands and Finland, which are
     characterized by current account surpluses, and countries with high
     budget deficits. Along with Greece, this second category includes
     especially Spain, Portugal and Ireland.

     These countries' competitiveness has dropped steadily since the euro was
     introduced. They lived on credit for years, seduced by the unusually low
     interest rates within the euro zone, and imported far more than they
     exported.

     When demand collapsed in the wake of the global financial crisis,
     governments jumped in to fill the gap, with serious consequences -- debt
     skyrocketed. Spain's budget deficit was at 11 percent last year, while
     Greece's was nearly 13 percent. Such high debt is simply not sustainable
     in the long term.

     In the past, the solution for these countries would have been to devalue
     their currency, which in turn would make imports more expensive and
     exports cheaper. Such a move would stimulate their national economies
     and strengthen their competitiveness.

     Now, however, these countries must submit to a drastic therapy regime at
     the hands of the European Commission. They need to balance their
     budgets, while simultaneously creating more competition on the labor and
     goods markets.

     The directives from Brussels translate into difficult sacrifices for the
     citizens of the affected countries. Employees will have to scale back
     wage demands for years, and civil servants will see their salaries cut.
     Ireland has already embarked on this path; Greece and Spain will follow.

     Is Germany to Blame?

     The Commission has recommended that Spain, booming until recently,
     radically restructure its economy. Spain must significantly shrink its
     bloated construction sector and focus on economic sectors with higher
     productivity.

     France and Italy have been given homework assignments of their own. Both
     countries are being asked to apply austerity packages and increase
     labor-market flexibility. France must also get its significant welfare
     and unemployment expenses under control.

     Resentment is growing in the countries most directly affected. But that
     frustration is not directed, as might be expected, toward the
     Commission. Instead, it is increasingly surplus countries coming under
     fire -- with Germany at the forefront.

     Representatives from Spain and Portugal especially -- but also from
     France -- hold Germany accountable for their current woes. They aren't
     alone in that opinion either. "The Greek crisis has German roots," says
     Heiner Flassbeck, chief economist at the United Nations Conference on
     Trade and Development (UNCTAD), in Geneva. It was German wage dumping
     that got the country's European neighbors in trouble, he says.

     At Its Neighbors' Expense

     EU officials don't phrase it quite so strongly, but they still accuse
     Germany more than any other country of gaining advantages for itself at
     its neighbors' expense, using its policy of low wages to make German
     products increasingly attractive relative to those from other countries.

     As a precautionary measure, officials at Berlin's Finance Ministry have
     gathered arguments that Finance Minister Wolfgang Scha:uble can put
     forward in the country's defense. Germany's position is that the
     countries now in crisis are themselves at fault for their situation.
     They lived beyond their means for years, the German government says,
     financing their economic boom on credit. Now the financial crisis has
     revealed their weaknesses.

     Germany didn't have it easy with the euro in the beginning either,
     continues the argument, because the country wasn't competitive compared
     to other member countries -- but it regained its strength with a great
     deal of trouble and effort, through reforms.

     German officials point to the fact that the country made its labor
     market more flexible through the Hartz package of welfare reforms and
     say that state finances are more stable than before, despite the crisis.
     They add that taking this same path would lead the currently troubled
     countries out of the crisis. And, they continue, the federal government
     is not responsible for lagging wage growth because, in Germany, salaries
     and wages are negotiated between employers and unions rather than being
     imposed by the government.

     The German government also claims no responsibility for the country's
     export surplus. German firms are competitive not because of government
     policy, it says, but because of entrepreneurial decisions and the
     preferences of customers around the world.

     Create More Competition

     When this debate flared up recently within the euro-zone countries,
     Scha:uble received support from the top for his position. The southern
     members of the euro zone shouldn't be ungrateful, warned ECB President
     Jean-Claude Trichet. After all, he reasons, Germany funded the deficits
     with its surpluses. Nonetheless, the Commission called on Germany to
     make further changes as well. The country should boost domestic demand,
     increase investment in infrastructure and create more competition in the
     service sector.

     The Commission believes the currency union can exist in the long term
     only if member countries' governments implement reforms and coordinate
     their economic policies. Scha:uble's experts agree. They are proposing
     -- partly with an eye toward mollifying France -- a common German-French
     initiative.

     Both countries' governments should work toward better coordination, the
     German financial experts say. Merely monitoring deficits has turned out
     to be inadequate. In the future, they suggest, euro-zone governments
     should also focus on combating differing inflation rates and step in
     early when capital bubbles develop.

     France, no doubt, would gladly accept such a proposal. Paris, after all,
     has long called for Europe-wide financial governance. Until now it was
     Germany that opposed the idea.

     The euro-zone governments have started to rethink their positions, but
     will action necessarily follow? The past never lacked in good intentions
     either, but political calculation always won out in the end. How else
     would Greece have managed to become a member of the common currency
     zone? Why else would Brussels stand by for so long without taking
     action? It was far from secret that Greece had been cooking its books
     for years.

     Financial Trickery

     Back in the fall of 2004, Eurostat, the EU body in charge of statistics,
     calculated that Greece's officially announced debts of between 1.4
     percent and 2.0 percent of gross domestic product between 2000 and 2003
     were incorrect. In reality, the amount was nearly three times as high,
     falling between 3.7 percent and 4.6 percent. The statisticians surmised
     that Athens had whitewashed its finances in previous years, too. Greece,
     in fact, would never have met the conditions for membership in the
     common currency without such trickery.

     But the country was not immediately banned from the euro zone, nor were
     other sanctions imposed. Instead, member countries discussed how the
     statistics could be improved and made more accurate. Not much emerged
     from all the talk.

     Outgoing European Commissioner for Enterprise and Industry Gu:nter
     Verheugen remembers all too well that, for a long time, the problem with
     Greece was simply not something that was talked about. He finds it hard
     to believe that this "disproportionate regard" for Greece had nothing to
     do with that fact that conservative allies of European Commission
     President Jose Manuel Barroso governed in Athens for five years.

     Not until last fall's elections brought Greece's socialist opposition to
     power did new data arrive from Athens -- and new questions and
     accusations from Brussels.

     The Greek parliament and government are now virtually stripped of power.
     They're not allowed to decide on any new expenditures without EU
     approval. Finance Minister Giorgos Papakonstantinou is required to
     report every four weeks on progress made in budget restructuring.

     An EU Protectorate

     Brussels, not Athens, now controls whether and how the austerity program
     takes effect. If "detailed and ongoing inspection" shows that the actual
     results fall short of those predicted, Almunia says, then Brussels'
     watchdogs will demand additional measures. There were even calls at the
     European Parliament last week to send a special EU representative with
     extensive authority to Greece. The small country has become little more
     than an EU protectorate.

     The EU Commission and the euro-zone leaders hope these compulsory
     measures will steady markets. They also hope Greek unions and
     associations, from farmers to taxi drivers, won't mobilize against the
     reduction in the country's standard of living that will accompany these
     new measures.

     German Finance Minister Scha:uble and German Federal Bank President Axel
     Weber rule out giving aid to the struggling country. Indeed, EU treaties
     strictly forbid any such aid. The message is that Greece must help
     itself.

     As a precautionary measure, though, both German officials, along with
     their colleagues in other EU countries, are keeping open the possibility
     of lending a hand anyway. The EU can't afford for a member state to go
     bankrupt, either politically or economically.

     Out of the Question

     The experts always debate the same possibilities. The first would be a
     common euro-zone bond, which would be placed at Greece's disposal. The
     advantages for Greece are obvious -- the country would receive funds
     more cheaply than it currently does because the euro zone as a whole
     wouldn't have to pay as high a risk premium as Greece alone does. The
     disadvantage is that countries with good credit, like Germany, would
     have to pay higher interest rates. Consequently, the German government
     insists that such a loan is out of the question.

     An alternative would be bilateral financial aid. Solvent countries, such
     as Germany, would take out loans on the financial market at good rates
     and pass these on to Greece. But euro-zone governments are also
     reluctant to take this path.

     The last option is the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which could
     use its resources to help Greece out of its credit crunch. It would
     likely impose much stricter conditions on its aid money than the EU
     would. But the IMF's involvement would also mean a loss of face for the
     entire euro zone and a triumph for the Washington-based institution,
     which was always skeptical of the euro.

     If Greece doesn't stabilize in the coming weeks, the euro-zone's leaders
     will be left facing a choice between a rock and a hard place, with the
     third option being even worse.

     Translated from the German by Ella Ornstein

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-02-10 15:21:12</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2001-03-13 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1769589_re-eurasia-fwd-spiegel-an-eu-protectorate-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1775739</id>
    <title>Re: [OS] FINLAND - Finland May Double Atomic Power to Cut Russia
 Imports
</title>
    <description>   The Finns import 100 percent of the natural gas from Russia. They are also
   relatively flat, so while they do have a lot of water and rivers they
   usually don't run in a way that would be conducive to large hydropower
   dams. This means that they only get 18 percent of power from hydro.

   This is also one of the best examples of how say an anti-nuclear power NGO
   would serve Russian interests. Were Finland to build 3 more nuclear
   reactors, it would no longer be dependent on Russia for electricity.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Laura Jack" &lt;laura.jack@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "The OS List" &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2010 5:59:11 AM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: [OS] FINLAND - Finland May Double Atomic Power to Cut Russia
   Imports

   http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601095&amp;sid=ajnVybZbdA0M

   Finland May Double Atomic Power to Cut Russia Imports (Update1)
   Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A

   By Kati Pohjanpalo and Diana ben-Aaron

   April 15 (Bloomberg) -- Finland, the European Uniona**s biggest power
   consumer per capita, may double nuclear energy production in the next 10
   years to wean the Nordic nation off Russian electricity imports that
   reached a record high in 2009.

   Fortum Oyj, Finlanda**s largest utility, Teollisuuden Voima Oyj, and a
   group led by E.ON AG want permission to build three reactors in addition
   to the current four. The government plans to make a decision this month.

   a**Ita**s first and foremost to be able to replace Russian electricity
   imports,a** Finance Minister Jyrki Katainen said in an interview. a**We
   should not be dependent on them and there is no sense in paying Russia for
   electricity we could produce ourselves.a** He is chairman of the National
   Coalition Party, the smaller government coalition member, which supports
   granting permits to all applicants provided they meet all criteria.

   Finlanda**s reliance on imports, which come mainly from Russia and supply
   15 percent of all power, make the country vulnerable because of its
   energy-intensive industries such as papermaking and winters where
   temperatures in the north can remain below freezing for six months,
   supporters of the building program say. Opponents say nuclear energy is
   too dangerous and Finland should seek other options.

   a**Ita**s worrying that three-quarters of Finlanda**s imported energy
   comes from Russia, including 100 percent of natural gas,a** said Ilkka
   Kananen, head of the National Emergency Supply Agency. a**Electricity
   imports are a structural vulnerability and a risk to supply security.a**

   Russia cut gas deliveries to Ukraine three times in five years in a
   pricing dispute, the last row in January 2009, which lasted three weeks,
   causing disrupted supplies and widespread shortages in eastern and Western
   Europe.

   Minus 50

   Electricity consumption in Finland is the highest in the EU and more than
   double Germanya**s per capita use, in part because temperatures in winter
   can drop to as low as minus 50 degrees Centigrade (minus 58 degrees
   Fahrenheit). The nationa**s main option for increased energy independence
   lies with nuclear power because it lacks the oil and gas supplies of
   Russia and Norway.

   a**We have to reach our security of supply goal even in peak load
   situations,a** said Juha Naukkarinen, head of Finnish Energy Industries,
   which represents power producers. a**All applicants should get the permit
   and let them evaluate when to build.a**

   In 2009, Finlanda**s nuclear reactors generated one-third of the
   nationa**s 68.7 terawatt hours of electricity output, while hydropower
   accounted for 18 percent, Statistics Finland data show. Finland consumed a
   total of 80.8 million terawatt hours, with the difference made up by
   imports.

   At Least One

   Russian electricity cost Finland 365 million euros ($497 million) last
   year and accounted for three-quarters of all imported electricity, the
   statistics office said.

   Finance Minister Katainen is at odds with Prime Minister Matti
   Vanhanena**s Centre party, which is pushing for a mixture of new nuclear
   power and renewable energy. Economy Minister Mauri Pekkarinen, a Centre
   Party member, has said the government is unlikely to issue three new
   permits.

   a**We can easily see from the debate what the outcome will be,a** said
   Tapio Litmanen, a sociology professor at the University of Jyvaeskylae in
   central Finland who has edited a book on the nuclear power industry. a**At
   least one new license will be given.a**

   Finland, which has four working reactors, was second behind the U.K. among
   western nations to start building additional nuclear plants following the
   Chernobyl meltdown in Ukraine in 1986.

   a**Unnecessarya**

   Teollisuuden Voima, or TVO, one of the three applicants, is building the
   countrya**s fifth reactor, the worlda**s largest, on the west coast with
   Areva SA. The original target cost was 3 billion euros, though Areva has
   set aside 2.3 billion euros for cost overruns, the company said on March
   4.

   Environmental groups also point to construction delays at the TVO
   Olkiluoto-3 reactor, set to open three years late in 2012, as an example
   of the complexities and hazards associated with nuclear energy.

   Nuclear power is a**unnecessary for Finland at this time,a** said Janne
   Bjoerklund, the Finnish Association for Nature Conservationa**s nuclear
   campaign coordinator. a**Even one new atomic reactor will make Finland a
   nuclear power exporter.a**

   After Finnish electricity consumption fell 7.4 percent last year, the
   biggest drop since World War II as the recession trimmed output and the
   forest industry shuttered capacity, critics say thata**s evidence new
   reactors are not needed and the industrya**s consumption forecast is too
   high.

   TVO and Fortum, which are partly government owned, have selected sites and
   waste repository locations for their new plants. Fennovoima, 34 percent
   owned by E.ON, has narrowed possible locations down to two in northern
   Finland.

   Capacity

   E.ON, which runs power plants in Germany, the U.K. and Sweden, posted net
   income of 5.33 billion euros last year, adjusted to exclude changes in the
   value of fuel hedging. Shares of the Dusseldorf, Germany-based company
   have declined 2.5 percent so far this year. E.ON gained 0.5 percent to
   28.54 euros as of 11:13 a.m. in Frankfurt.

   Finlanda**s four reactors have a capacity of about 2,700 megawatts.
   Olkiluoto-3 will produce 1,600 megawatts. The proposed three new reactors
   would add from 3,500 megawatts to 6,100 megawatts. The government predicts
   electricity usage of about 100 terawatt hours in 2030, while the Finnish
   energy industry forecasts it will grow faster.

   New power sources are also needed to replace plants that come to the end
   of their lifespan and are taken offline. Fortuma**s two Loviisa reactors
   will be shuttered in 2027 and 2030. Of Finlanda**s current power plants,
   only Olkiluoto-3 and some hydropower plants will be generating electricity
   in 2050, Finnish Energy Industriesa** data shows.

   To contact the reporters on this story: Kati Pohjanpalo in Helsinki at
   kpohjanpalo@bloomberg.net; Diana ben-Aaron in Helsinki at
   dbenaaron1@bloomberg.net.
   Last Updated: April 15, 2010 05:26 EDT

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-01 03:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1775739_re-os-finland-finland-may-double-atomic-power-to-cut-russia.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1781076</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - AUSTRALIA - Elections - CN65
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE: CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator.  Who is heading the
   campaign for the Liberal-National coalition seat in Queensland
   PUBLICATION: Yes but with no attribution
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

   With the candidates seemingly neck and neck, what are your predictions? 
   Coalition should win Hasluck (WA), Solomon (NT), Leichhardt (Qld), Flynn
   (Qld), Wright (Qld), Brisbane (Qld), Dawson (Qld), Page (NSW), Lindsay
   (NSW), and possibly win another two or three seats in NSW plus Longman
   (Qld) and Forde (Qld).
   Coalition could lose Macmillan (Vic), McEwen (Vic), Boothby (SA), and
   Sturt (SA).

     Has Labour managed to regain some of its lost support, or does it
     continue to decline? 

   The Labor party has clawed back some vote in the south.  The unions are
   outspending the Coalition massively on electronic advertising, when ends
   at midnight tonight.  There is always a swing back tot he government in
   the last two weeks, no matter who the government is.

     Reports say that the Liberal-National coalition is willing to open up
     uranium exports to India: is this a change that only the coaltion would
     make, or would Labour also consider such a decision if it remains in
     power? 

   The Coalition signed a uranium export agreement with India when in
   government, but Labor reneged on it. Most of the differences are on
   domestic politics, but there are big differences on boat people which have
   implications on foreign politics in the South Pacific. 

     In addition to the mining tax debate and the asylum seekers, what are
     the other most divisive issues that could develop into concrete changes
     in Australia's behavior depending on the winner? 

   Mining tax, boat people, overall deficit, infrastructure.

     Will the victory of either side affect Australia's role in US-led NATO
     operations in Afghanistan?

   Labor under pressure over combat deaths in Afghanistan.  They say they
   will maintain the presence, but the Dutch pull out from Oruzgan has made
   it more difficult.  There is some prospect of a drawn own under Labor.
    The big question is how long the US will stay there.  

   My complete election predictions are:
   The Coalition should win Hasluck (WA), Solomon (NT), Leichhardt (Qld),
   Flynn (Qld), Wright (Qld), Brisbane (Qld), Dawson (Qld), Page (NSW),
   Lindsay (NSW), and possibly win another two or three seats in NSW plus
   Longman (Qld) and Forde (Qld).
   The Coalition could lose Macmillan (Vic), McEwen (Vic), Boothby (SA), and
   Sturt (SA).
   Thus although a Coalition win would be based on the result in Queensland,
   the election will actually be decided in SA and Victoria, where Labor
   gains would offset Coalition wins in Qld WA and NT and help Labor hold
   government.
   The other thing is that there may be no outright winners.  There are two
   independent members of the House or Representatives, and a really close
   result could see one side or the other having to form a government with
   the actual participation, or else support, of these independents, and any
   other independents who may win seats on Saturday.  No Australian PM has
   been dependent upon the support of independents since Arthur Fadden in
   1940.

   Source then sent this from the coalition daily update:

   From Day One the Coalition will take Real Action to restore Australiaa**s
   finances.
     * We will pay back Labora**s debt. Our Debt Reduction Taskforce will
       manage the process of delivering savings, and proceeds from the sale
       of Medibank Private will go towards paying off the debt.
     * We will end the waste by suspending payments under Labora**s BER
       programme, establishing an Office of Due Diligence and establishing a
       Waste Action website to enable Australians to report waste and suggest
       savings.
     * We will stop Labora**s higher taxes by removing the threat of the
       mining tax and the carbon tax, cutting company tax and providing a
       pathway to further tax relief once debt is under control.
     * We will boost productivity and participation through policies
       including a real Paid Parental Leave scheme, support for small
       business and a boost to infrastructure investment.
     * We will make sustainability the cornerstone of economic decisionmaking
       by reconstituting the Productivity Commission as the Productivity and
       Sustainability Commission. We will deliver our direct action plan on
       the Environment and Climate Change and our water policy.
   We need to reject the incompetence and spin of Julia Gillard and the Labor
   factions.
   We need Real Action.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director, Stratfor
 US Mobile: (512) 422-9335
 China Mobile: (86) 15801890731
 Email: richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com




   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer/Beijing Correspondent, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-08-18 04:05:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1781076_insight-australia-elections-cn65-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1782561</id>
    <title>Re: FOR EDIT - GUATEMALA MASSACRE TACTICAL ANALYSIS - 110519
</title>
    <description>   if she becomes the real president, you have a de-facto narco-state, just
   more official

   ill gather more on this for an SI piece on her potential presidency

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Karen Hooper" &lt;karen.hooper@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, May 19, 2011 9:30:32 AM
   Subject: Re: FOR EDIT - GUATEMALA MASSACRE TACTICAL ANALYSIS - 110519

   I'd love to see what evidence we have on her that leads us to believe
   she's so much more corrupt than the rest of the elite, or than her
   husband. All I've heard so far is "rumors" and "more than rumors."

   And since she's also rumored to be the current real president, what
   changes if she becomes the real president?

   I'm not at all convinced that any leader of Guatemala would be able to
   resist pressure from the narcos when there is money to be made and their
   own skins to save.

   On 5/19/11 10:24 AM, scott stewart wrote:

     Ia**d love to see SI do a high level political piece on Sandra Torres
     and the implications of her potential election.

      

      

      

      

     From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Karen Hooper
     Sent: Thursday, May 19, 2011 9:34 AM
     To: Analyst List
     Subject: Re: FOR EDIT - GUATEMALA MASSACRE TACTICAL ANALYSIS - 110519

      

     Threats and mass killings are a different breed, and I think something
     should be said in the analysis that indicates this is a bit of a game
     changer. But I agree entirely that it needs to be in context of previous
     actions. They have indeed been threatening the administration since it
     came in.

     What counts as more than a rumor?

     On 5/19/11 9:28 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     this isn't the first instance of overt MX cartel presence in Central
     America.  Look at the Zeta threats to Colom just a few months ago.
     saying that this development transforms the geopolitics of Guatemala and
     Central America is a huge overstatement

     The allegations against Sandra are more than just rumors from what I've
     been able to pick up since I first heard about it around 2 yrs ago.
     She's made a lot of enemies, she's also made a lot of money. Wouldn't
     discount the allegations.. it's just something to keep in mind.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Karen Hooper" &lt;karen.hooper@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Thursday, May 19, 2011 8:22:14 AM
     Subject: Re: FOR EDIT - GUATEMALA MASSACRE TACTICAL ANALYSIS - 110519

     While we may want to caveate or tone it down, I do not think it's
     unreasonable to indicate that the influx of overt Mexican cartel
     presence in Central America is a game changer. These countries don't
     have the resources to fight the cartels, and the impact of this kind of
     violent message shouldn't be understated.

     Btw, I'd like to know more about why we think Sandra Colom is
     particularly corrupt. I know there have been rumors, but let's not
     forget that a) the elite in Guatemala is invested in discrediting
     outsiders like her, and b) they're all dirty. What do we actually have
     on her?

     Karen Hooper

     Latin America Analyst
     o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
     c: 512.750.7234
     STRATFOR
     www.stratfor.com

     On 5/19/11 8:59 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     also 'grisly', 'horrific', etc.

     the elite landowners don't 'represent' the state.... in fact, Sandra has
     a real problem on her hands with the landed elite the more she tries to
     go down the populist/indigenous vote grabbing route.  The landed elite
     are a powerful part of the state, but represent is not the right word

     i also don't see the basis for this claim "We expect this to be the
     beginning of a trend which will have dramatic effect upon the
     geopolitics of the country and the greater Central American region. "

     what is this supposed dramatic effect on the geopolitics of Guatemala
     and CA?  The Zetas have been there for a long time, likely with the
     cooperation of Sandra Torres and her allies. The Zetas also use messages
     like this to intimidate all the time. This analysis treats the event as
     if something radically new is happening.  The mass killing is notable
     for sure, but I really do not see this at all having a fundamental
     impact on Central American geopolitics

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Cc: "Writers@Stratfor. Com" &lt;writers@stratfor.com&gt;, "scott stewart"
     &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Thursday, May 19, 2011 7:55:48 AM
     Subject: Re: FOR EDIT - GUATEMALA MASSACRE TACTICAL ANALYSIS - 110519

     Please take these loaded words out of the analysis as I suggested
     yesterday:
     massacre (it's a mass murder)
     sadistic (this is now a 'personality disorder' and we are not shrinks. 
     Please describe in dry, tactical terms)
     slaughter (we simply don't use words like this)

     On 5/18/11 6:42 PM, Victoria Allen wrote:

      

     On the night of 14/15 May, 27-29 Guatemalan laborers were slaughtered on
     the farm of a regional landowner near the village of San Benito, Peten
     Department, Guatemalaa**s northernmost province. The mass killing
     appears to be the work of Mexicoa**s Los Zetas cartel, due to the
     combination of the cartela**s known presence in the region, its control
     of Chiapas and Campeche states [LINK:
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20101218-mexican-drug-wars-bloodiest-year-date]
     bordering Peten on the north and west, and the grisly display of
     beheaded and dismembered victims. Somewhat out of character, though, was
     that they wrote the narco-message on a wall of a building with blood a**
     using a victima**s leg as the writing implement a** which is not common
     for Los Zetas. However it has become clear over the last two years that
     Los Zetas tend to kill victims in particularly sadistic ways when time
     allows and a message needs to be sent a** the result being a fearsome
     reputation. That this event occurred and involved Los Zetas, is not what
     makes the massacre significant. When taken together, several unusual
     aspects of this event present the probability that a significant shift
     is in progress in the dynamics of Zeta activities in northern Guatemala.

      

     Peten Department is remote, underdeveloped, and the people are strongly
     independent and distrustful of the Guatemalan government (this will be
     rewritten/reworked by Colby to convey more accurately in a single
     sentence the significance of the culture of the region vis-A -vis
     outsiders, govt, kaibiles, etca*|). It is known that Los Zetas over the
     years have recruited many Guatemalan kaibiles [LINK:
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110209-mexican-cartels-and-guatemalan-politics],
     current or former Guatemalan special forces soldiers, to the point that
     there is a high likelihood that Zetas operating in Guatemala, the
     Yucatan, and southern Mexico are from Guatemala. Based upon reported
     testimony of two of the survivors of the massacre the attackers wore
     military-style fatigues (not uncommon), and that they had Mexican
     accents. The presence of a large group of Mexican Zeta enforcers leads
     to the possibility that this group was sent into Peten Department for a
     specific purpose. In the context of a long presence of Guatemalan Zetas
     in the region, we ask why this change in operations came about.

      

     Further, the surviving witnesses indicated that the gunmen were
     demanding to know the whereabouts of the landowner, Otto Salguero, and
     as the peasants had just arrived to work for Salguero the previous week
     they would not have possessed any useful knowledge to extract a** as
     opposed to that which long-time employees likely would possess. While
     interrogating the peasants regarding the whereabouts of Salguero a** who
     was not on the property at the time a** the peasants were killed, then
     methodically decapitated. But there are large anomalies evident in the
     event.

      

     According to reports from Latin American media, the Zeta force was
     camped in a what was described as a redoubt nearby for several days a**
     most likely in surveillance of Salgueroa**s residence and activities,
     judging by the proximity of their camp to the targeta**s house a** and
     as such probably knew that their apparent target was not on the property
     when they attacked. Additionally it was reported that, at the time the
     attack began, Salguero was attending the funeral of his niece and her
     father-in-law a** who had been killed the previous day by Zetas when the
     pair were delivering ransom money for another family member. The Zetas
     killed and beheaded the people they were interrogating, presumably
     because the peasants could offer no information, but the Zetas likely
     knew where their target was a** and why. The conflicting information
     then points to the potential that Los Zetas slaughtered the peasants
     knowing they were not relevant to whatever activities Salguero was
     engaged in that made him a Zeta target in the first place. There are
     indications in the media that Salgueroa**s activities have been counter
     to Zeta interests for several years, however as there is little clarity
     yet in this aspect of the chain of events, STRATFOR is in the process of
     corroborating rumored connections before giving them credence in
     analysis on this situation.

      

     Regarding the contradiction of reported information and historical
     evidence, another element in play is the leaving of witnesses: Los Zetas
     typically does not do so unless the group wishes to deliver a pointed
     message, though there have been occasions when a victim has a**played
     deada** until the Zetas depart, as occurred at the massacre of the
     Central American migrants in San Fernando last year [LINK:
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100826_revelations_72_migrants_deaths].
     As reported in Guatemalan news on the event, while one survivor did so
     by a**playing deada** after he was wounded, a woman was specifically and
     pointedly spared. She apparently was told by the Zeta leader that she
     would be spared because of her daughters, who were with her and
     reportedly whom she had attempted to protect by covering them with her
     body. As it happens the woman is pregnant as well, but that may not have
     played into the decision to allow her to live. What is not known at this
     point about the Zetas sparing her and her children, is what message she
     may have been specifically instructed to convey after the event came to
     light.

      

     There remains a great deal of uncertain or uncorroborated information
     surrounding the massacre in Peten. STRATFOR is monitoring the
     developments closely, for there are many questions to be answered. It is
     clear though, from the known facts and the identified anomalies, that a
     profound message was being sent. Based upon the available information
     STRATFORa**s initial take is that the message was the violence, that
     because Mexicans were used rather than Guatemalans, Los Zetas are there,
     no one is safe a** from the average peasant to the elite landowners (who
     represent the state). The more gruesome the scene created by Los Zetas,
     the more it will remind the Guatemalan people of the horrific acts of
     the death squads during that countrya**s 36 year civil war a** and the
     death squads were kaibiles, who now are aligned with Los Zetas. The
     connection will have been made. The primal fear this event instilled in
     Guatemalans has been evidenced by STRATFORa**s sources in that country
     flatly refusing to discuss or even acknowledge it as having happened. We
     expect this to be the beginning of a trend which will have dramatic
     effect upon the geopolitics of the country and the greater Central
     American region. The second part of this discussion, next week, will
     examine those wider implications which we perceive to have been
     triggered by the massacre at San Benito.

      

      

      

      

     Victoria Allen

     Tactical Analyst (Mexico)

     Strategic Forecasting

     512-279-9475

     victoria.allen@stratfor.com

      

     "There is nothing more necessary than good intelligence to frustrate a
     designing enemy, &amp; nothing requires greater pains to obtain." -- George
     Washington

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-05-19 16:39:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 20:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1782561_re-for-edit-guatemala-massacre-tactical-analysis-110519-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1784664</id>
    <title>Josh Informacije O Kini
</title>
    <description>   Dragi Srdjo i Slobodane,

   Ovo je "highly confidential", shto bi rekli Ameri:

   Nash analista za Kinu ima josh informacije za vas. Saznali smo od
   informanata u Kineskoj informativnoj sluzbi da je njihov interes za Canvas
   na veoma visokom nivou, prakticno to im je prioritet broj jedan.
   Najverovatnije ce poceti cyber-war napade na vash web-sajt, ali za razliku
   od amaterskih Iranskih napada mozete da ocekujete da koriste vash web-sajt
   kao portal za napad na celu organizaciju (dakle da ostave web sajt aktivan
   ali da ga hack-uju za informaciju o clanovima, email-ove, itd.), kao
   naprimer njihov napad na Save Darfur website
   (http://computerworld.co.nz/news.nsf/scrt/F7D5B25446152C91CC25741600722278).

   Takodje je najverovatnije da ce Kineska vlada pokushati da napravi presing
   na Srpsku vladu da urade neshto po pitanju "Canvas-a"... Shta i kako
   naravno ne znamo. Dakle u zakljucku oni vas shvataju veoma ozbiljno, ali
   takodje prave analizu da vi ustvari niste NGO nego deo "Zapadnih"
   informativnih sluzbi...

   Kina je odlucila da od Tibeta napravi "primer" i da od njih naprave
   "battleground region". Mi ovde u Stratforu analiziramo da je to zbg toga
   shto u sledecih par godina dolazi kriza u Kineskim ruralnim regionima.
   Trenutno Kina koristi sigurnost oko Olimpiskih igara kao izgovor da
   uspostavi sigurnosne mere koje bi ostale na snazi sve dok postaji opasnost
   nemira u unutrashnjosti. Dakle mozemo da ocekujemo povecanje operacija u
   Tibetu ali i u Xianxingu, pogotovu kad se Olimpiske igre zavrshe.

   Nas ovde u Stratforu zanjima kakve akcije Kina preduzme protiv vas, pa ako
   vam to nije problem molimo vas da nas ostavite obaveshtene o bilo kakvim
   napadima na vash web-sajt ili pressing o strane vlade, ili neshto sasvim
   trece.

   Ja licno znam da vi vec sve ovo ocekujete... Nadam se da je nasha
   informacija vama donekle korisna.

   Sve najbolje and "keep safe".

   Marko
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-06-18 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1784664_josh-informacije-o-kini-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>slobodan@mediaworksit.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>srkip@mediaworksit.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1787633</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - RUSSIA/EUROPE - nat gas money &amp; influence
</title>
    <description>   ***LG: we've been looking at the energy sector's income into the Russian
   government. There is a lot we can get #s for... but apparently there is
   some hidden income we didn't know about....
   Also, Stratfor watched Gazprom buy up a SLEW of middle-men natural gas
   companies in Europe and didn't think it mattered since they were
   middle-men and didn't own real infrastructure. Well, apparently they do
   matter since they not only jack up the prices domestically, but also
   create a lot of revenue for the Russian state...
    
    
   CODE: RU105
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Gazprom
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Gazprom spokesman
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: C
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   HANDLER: Lauren
    
    
   Russian energy is a commodity that is hard to say has suffered during the
   2008-2010 recession. Yes, I agree that natural gas is the main commodity.
   It makes up the bread and butter of the Russian economy. It also makes up
   the bulk of the energy revenue coming in. It can't fluctuate with global
   prices since Europe is on contract prices negotiated years in advance. So
   the recession doesn't matter when it comes to natural gas.
    
   But it does not really contribute to the cushion funds. That is oil, which
   is vulnerable to global prices. But it is still income coming in.
    
   What you need to understand how far Russia has moved into the European
   market outside of basic export-import contracts. Russia's Gazprom now owns
   the majority of Eastern, Central and even a few Western European natural
   gas middle-men. This allows them to collect revenue on Russian natural gas
   going into the countries... a lot of revenue. For example, say Russia
   sells Hungary, Slovakia or Bulgaria natural gas at $350 or $450 per
   thousand cubic meters. The middle-men country (which are never reported
   on) then sell it to industry, the government or domestic consumers at
   $450-$600 per thousand cubic meters. This money goes straight to the
   Russian government and Gazprom. This money isn't accounted for in most #s
   but is part of a large source of income that no one knows about.
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-08-13 19:44:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1787633_insight-russia-europe-nat-gas-money-and-influence-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.wilson@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1788211</id>
    <title>INSIGHT: Ocalan and the PKK relations
</title>
    <description>   PUBLICATION: background
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Ocaln's aide in Syria and now with close ties with the
   PKK
   SOURCE A Reliability : A BA 
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SOURCE HANDLER: Yerevan
   Last night, I had an hour talks with this guy. A He was very interesting,
   but liked to talk more about PKKA philosophy and ideology.
   A Regarding the current clout of Ocalan over the PKK, he says,A 
   There are a number of A PKK leaders in fact. It has no only one leader,
   because PKK is a system of life in the terms of politics,
   economy.A environment, administration and for the future. And, Ocalan
   leads that system via his ideology and thinking. its true that Ocalan is
   imprisoned,A A but his ideology and the system is notA imprisoned. Ocaln
   is still alive and the current leaders of the PKK dont marginalized him
   and all his guidances and recommendations are considered. A PKK certainly
   take Ocalan into account and follow his recommendations. the current
   leaders of the PKK do know who Ocalan is. Also, Ocalan say that now PKK
   has anA administration and system that can decide on war and peace as
   well. A 
   He says that Ocalan does support what decisions come out of Qandil and
   dont object it. A Ocalan and the current leaders such as Karalyan. Bozan,
   Jamil Bayak , Avesta and others are completing each other.A 
   He says that Turkey is a part of administrating Emrali prison. Israel, US,
   EU and Russia are theA harbingers and Turkey is the tail in fact when it
   comes to deal with Ocalan.A 
   He said that the current ceasefire came at the result of NGO's. former
   BTP, Barzani and Ocalan himslef. A but mostA importantlyA , Ocalan's
   message from Emral.A 
   He said that PKK decided to resume fighting in June to tell Turkey that we
   are still there and send a message to the world and Turkey that Turkey
   still has an internal issue, becauseA TurkeyA showed itself as the
   regional leader and has not any internal problems, and expanded its
   diplomacy through Balkans, Middle east and all the way to South America.
   Turkey was thinking that its now time to save Gaza. By A firing one
   bullet, PKK cut the expanding hand of Turkish diplomacy that wanted to
   emerge as a regional leaders. A  He says that PKK was able to minimize
   TurkishA foreignA agenda in the region and almost abort its regional
   project which was an Islamic one. A He says that one can see that since
   PKK resumption of fighting, Turkish foreign policy is not as active as it
   used to be and now, Turkey is more focused on the domestic affairs.A 
   Regarding Government talks with the PKK, he said, there has been indirect
   talks in the past, but about two weeks ago, aA committee, consisted on a
   number of peopleA went to Emrali and talked with Ocalan about the current
   cease fire.A 
   He believed that fighting to resume after the deadline of the current
   ceasefire if Turkey doesnt take concrete steps regarding the conditions of
   the PKK.A 
   Regarding BDP/ PKK relations, he says that the current leaders of the BDP
   are a part of the PKK system and they follow PKKA guidance, but PKK never
   commands them. And the leaders of BDP understand that if they dont be in
   line with the PKK guidance, then they are rejected by the people there. He
   believed that BDP and PKK are completing each other to develop the Kurdish
   cause and push the government to address the Kurdish issue.A A 

   --
   Yerevan Saeed
   STRATFOR
   Phone: 009647701574587
   IRAQ

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-08-23 18:49:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-15 20:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1788211_insight-ocalan-and-the-pkk-relations-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.wilson@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1793631</id>
    <title>Questions for Vinny
</title>
    <description>   Hey Lauren,

   Have fun with Mr. Markovski... I just found out on the net that he was
   actually born in Skoplje, Macedonia... Here are some points/questions I
   think would be interesting for you to ask him:

   General Questions about the economy:
   - What is his overall assessment of the financial crisis and its potential
   impact in the Balkans. Is he worried about what is going on?
   - If he is cool with answering this question: who does he bank with and
   why? What is his sense about the Bulgarian banks.
   - How would he characterize the Bulgarian economy? From the looks of it
   (low public debt and a budget surplus) it seems to be doing real well. It
   has a huge trade deficit, but that's normal for all the Balkan states.
   - Which countries in the Balkans is he most interested in investing in?

   IT-related Questions:
   - I would re-read our stratfor analyses about cybersecurity and ask him
   about that kind of stuff. What can a small company like Stratfor do to
   protect itself from cyber-attacks (he'll probably say, "you can buy my
   services" ;), etc.
   - Ask him if he had seen Russians using cyber-attacks.
   - How prevalent are hackers from the Balkans still... I know Serbs were
   not bad at it when they want to be.

   Stratfor Business Related:
   - How can we become more visible in the Bulgarian market? (We are thinking
   of going big time into internationalization)

   --
   Marko Papic

   Stratfor Junior Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
   AIM: mpapicstratfor
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1793631_questions-for-vinny-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1794293</id>
    <title>Re: FOR COMMENT: Canadian Pipeline Attack
</title>
    <description>   Yeah, I know that, you know that... does our reader know that? They may
   not remember what you are talking about...

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Ben West" &lt;ben.west@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, October 21, 2008 11:00:40 AM GMT -05:00 Columbia
   Subject: Re: FOR COMMENT: Canadian Pipeline Attack

   Attacks took place last week - the fact that police talked to Ludwig is a
   fresh trigger and is relevant to the attacks since he pulled off similar
   stuff about 10 years ago.

   Marko Papic wrote:

     ----- Original Message -----
     From: "Ben West" &lt;ben.west@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Tuesday, October 21, 2008 10:02:46 AM GMT -05:00 Columbia
     Subject: FOR COMMENT: Canadian Pipeline Attack

     In connection with the two pipeline attacks last week, Canadian police
     talked to Weibo Ludwig yesterday, an activist is he First Nations?
     responsible for a series of attacks in the late 1990s.  awkward way to
     start... let's get a trigger going here... what happened... what
     pipeline, what attack?  Talking to him indicates that police probably
     don't have many clues to go on and so are turning to past suspects.  It
     also reminds us that pipeline bombings in Canada are not a completely
     new thing.  However, these latest bombs, however amateurish, appear to
     be tied into a wider indigenous movement that has connections to budding
     anti-Olympics protests.  Regardless of who was behind these attacks or
     what the intentions were, they point out inherent security weaknesses in
     Canada's pipeline system.

      

     No arrests have yet been made connected to the two attacks on separate
     pipelines in northeast British Columbia last week.  While neither attack
     caused significant physical damage, the second attack did puncture a
     hole in the pipe, causing Encana (the pipelinea**s owner and operator)
     to shut down the pipeline temporarily while workers repaired the leak. 
     These leaks were preceded by a letter written to a local newspaper
     demanding that Encana and other energy companies leave the area of
     Tomslake, where the attacks took place.  The letter went on to state
     that the author would no longer negotiate and accused the oil &amp; gas
     companies of causing health problems in the writera**s community.  The
     letter also specifically mentions that oil and gas production endangers
     their a**home landsa**, a term that is closely linked to the indigenous
     -- referred to as First Nations in Canada -- rights movement in Canada. 

      

     Certainly not enough details are known about the attacks and police are
     still carrying out investigations.  So far there is no evidence that
     suggests that more than one person could be involved in the attacks, so
     we could have a lone wolf bomber on our hands.  However, a local tribe,
     known as the Kelly Lake Cree, are already involved in a dispute with
     Encana over gas production in the area and their recent escalations
     indicate that at least a faction of their group could be involved in the
     attacks.     

      

     In February of 2008, a Kelly Lake Cree spokesman indicated that plans to
     build more pipelines in the area did not include adequate compensation
     to the tribe.  While the Kelly Lake Cree does not outright own the land
     they claim, they have been involved in a legal battle over obtaining a
     title from the Canadian government since the mid-1990s.  On June 30, the
     same band set up a roadblock in the area in an effort to protest land
     rights, a tactic commonly used by other indigenous tribes in Canada. 
     This action was preceded by an emergency evacuation drill which was
     aimed at a nearby gas treatment plant as criticism for the
     unpreparedness.    

      

     Both of these actions a** the evacuation drill and the indication that
     verbal negotiations were not leading to results a** match with the
     complaints made in the letter sent October 10.  While it is certainly
     too early to assume that the Kelly Lake Cree are behind these two
     attacks, they certainly would be a suspect of interest for the RCMP. 

      

     The Kelly Lake Cree is certainly not the only group that has protested
     over health concerns surrounding oil and gas production in the region. 
     Among many more contemporary citizens who complain of water
     contamination and poor air quality, Weibo Ludwig was responsible for
     carrying out a campaign targeting the oil and gas industry during the
     late 1990s in nearby Hyeth, Alberta.  Citing health concerns and neglect
     by local officials, Ludwig bombed a drilling platform among many other
     oil &amp; gas targets.  Ludwig was ultimately apprehended and jailed, but
     has since been released.  In an interview after being questioned by the
     police, he expressed sympathy for those behind the most recent attacks. 
     Meanwhile, other indigenous groups in Saskatchewan, Alberta and Ontario
     have histories of resorting to violence in disputes with authorities and
     some are currently involved in disagreements with local oil &amp; gas
     projects. 

      

     According to Canadian census estimates, 1.7 million Canadians
     (approximately 5% of the population) claimed First Nation heritage in
     2006; 60% of them lived on reservations.  Obviously, an overwhelming
     majority of these people are peaceful citizens and are tightly
     integrated into the communities around them.  But the ability to wage
     violence can rest with as few as a handful of members, or even a single
     member, that have or has been radicalized.-- Careful here... I would
     caveat this even more... Canadians really get touchy about this sort of
     thing.

      

     There is another movement taking shape in Canada right now that would
     further contribute to any First Nation protest surrounding the use of
     indigenous lands and the oil &amp; gas industry.  Canadaa**s western city of
     Vancouver is set to host the winter Olympics in 2010 and groups have
     already amalgamated around the themes of Canadaa**s human rights abuses
     surrounding indigenous rights and the countrya**s booming energy
     industry.  Protests, like those that formed at stops along the Olympic
     Spirit Train that is making stops all across Canada in an effort to drum
     up support for the games, have remained small, but their grievances
     track closely with those of First Nation groups like the Kelly Lake Cree
     in British Columbia, First Nation groups in Saskatchewan protesting
     pipeline construction and the Lubicon Cree in Alberta that have joined
     up with Amnesty International.

      

     If enough supporters from Canadaa**s ecological, indigenous rights and
     anti-capitalist movements joined up with sympathetic elements within
     Canadaa**s First Nation population, there is reason to believe that they
     could pose a challenge to Canadaa**s Olympic organizers.  Protests like
     those surrounding the Olympic torch during the preparation for the
     Beijing Olympics last summer could plausibly take place in the run up to
     Vancouvera**s Olympic Games; the torch relay for which begins a year
     from now.     You should mention here that the protests leading up to
     the winning of the 2010 bid (I think the decision was made in 2004) were
     very active, if not violent. Look up some info on that... and that was
     just about the bid/

      

     Regardless of what may come to pass surrounding the 2010 olympics in
     Vancouver, these most recent attacks show an escalation in hostility
     towards oil &amp; gas projects in Canada.  This poses a challenge to energy
     companies like Encana, who are unable to completely secure the 27,000
     miles of pipelines in British Columbia alone.  The perceived adverse
     health affects of a pipe rupture would also negatively affect those
     companiesa** image a** regardless of who was ultimately behind the
     attacks.

 --
 Ben West
 Terrorism and Security Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin,TX
 Cell: 512-750-9890

     _______________________________________________ Analysts mailing list
     LIST ADDRESS: analysts@stratfor.com LIST INFO:
     https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts LIST ARCHIVE:
     https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts

     --
     Marko Papic

     Stratfor Junior Analyst
     C: + 1-512-905-3091
     marko.papic@stratfor.com
     AIM: mpapicstratfor

       ------------------------------------------------------------------

 _______________________________________________
 Analysts mailing list

 LIST ADDRESS:
 analysts@stratfor.com
 LIST INFO:
 https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts
 LIST ARCHIVE:
 https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts

 --
 Ben West
 Terrorism and Security Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin,TX
 Cell: 512-750-9890

   _______________________________________________ Analysts mailing list LIST
   ADDRESS: analysts@stratfor.com LIST INFO:
   https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts LIST ARCHIVE:
   https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts

   --
   Marko Papic

   Stratfor Junior Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
   AIM: mpapicstratfor
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-06-20 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1794293_re-for-comment-canadian-pipeline-attack-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1797953</id>
    <title>Re: Oligarch Sitdown Opportunity...
</title>
    <description>   I've got nothing better to do on Oct 10-12 than to sit down with a shady
   Bulgarian billionaire whose handle is "Vinny". Maybe he can speak
   Bulgarian to me, which we in Serbia call "Eastern Serbian".
   ..
   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Lauren Goodrich" &lt;goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Peter Zeihan" &lt;zeihan@stratfor.com&gt;, "Marko Papic"
   &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;, "Lauren Goodrich" &lt;goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;,
   "George Friedman" &lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;, "Matt Gertken"
   &lt;matt.gertken@stratfor.com&gt;, "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, September 15, 2008 1:37:41 PM GMT -05:00 Columbia
   Subject: Oligarch Sitdown Opportunity...

   Just to fill everyone ina*|
    
   I have been contacted by Veni Markovsky, who is Bulgariaa**s billionaire
   telecommunications oligarch. He brought internet to like 9 eastern
   European countries. He is also very good pals with Michael Dell, who
   introduced him to us.
    
   Anyway, he is very interested in us and what we publish. He said that
   during the war, we were the only ones to a**get ita** &amp; a**not be taken
   off guarda**.
    
   He is interested in talking about Russia (and other EE &amp; CIS countries) in
   business, finance and economy. He is currently organizing a summit for
   Putin, Medvedev &amp; Russian and European companies to discuss the financial
   &amp; business situation. He also does a lot of business in Russia and places
   like Ukraine, Turkmenistan, etc.

   He is willing to talk to us about how he sees things shaping up there now
   (post-war) and wants to dispel a lot of what is in the media (ie, that
   foreigners are just going to run away from Russian investment).Anywaya*|
   he has asked for a big sitdown with me to go through econ, finance,
   politics of Eurasia post-war &amp; has opened it up if any of ya**all would
   like to come. It would be sometime @ Oct 10-12, when he visits Texasa*|
   hea**s still working out the details.
    
   Ya**all interested?
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   Stratfor Junior Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
   AIM: mpapicstratfor
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1797953_re-oligarch-sitdown-opportunity-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zeihan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>matt.gertken@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1799622</id>
    <title>MX1 on Marine Force Recon possible involvement in Mexico
</title>
    <description>   I took the initiative to check the RUMINT from Reva on this issue by MX1.
   I did not tell him our source of course. Here is his take:

   Here is what I can say:

   Information about US military involvement in Mexico is provided
   only as a need to know basis.  The Americans have been adamant
   about this, and we agree even more.  Therefore, I can confirm that
   there is Marine presence, but I don't know if it is MFR.

   What is important to understand about SEMAR is the level of
   intelligence being shared.  We now enjoy NATO-eyes only status
   through SEMAR with all Pentagon agencies.  We share information
   classified up to and including top secret, and it goes both ways.
   In fact, we are so careful that the electronic decryption keys that
   we use for time-sensitive, electronically transferred information
   is a code designed jointly between both countries, so it is unique
   even in that sense.  The degree of intelligence sharing is
   unprecedented.

   Furthermore, operational coordination and indeed joint excercises
   have been conducted, and there are more in the planning stages.  We
   do indeed have US military presence in Mexico as part of the MI
   coordination office (even though they are sometimes under official
   cover as DOS, etc...)  There are advisors and intelligence
   operatives that work on the tactical level with their Mexican
   counterparts.

   However, based on the assessments that I have seen, most of the
   major successes and big busts in the last 6-8 months have been a
   result of intelligence shared at EPIC.  In fact, what happens there
   is trilateral information-sharing with the Colombians as well.
   Every time you see a major arrest in Mexico, you can expect to see
   another in Colombia very soon thereafter.

   As you know, sovereignty reigns supreme, and Mexican public opinion
   would be outraged if there were US soldiers engaged in a direct
   operational role in Mexico.  However, think about this: Given that
   the violence continues and that the majority of the Mexican
   population believes the strategy has failed, shouldn't the US be
   eager to jump onboard also condeming this kind of thing?  It would
   make sense...UNLESS...the American military advisors and analysts
   are fully aware of the real challenges being faced by their Mexican
   counterparts.  Therefore, I would submit to you that the fact that
   the US remains staunchly supportive of our efforts is that the
   people high up in the Pentagon are acutely aware of what we are
   doing and they participate in the things they care most about.

   In practice, we have moved way beyond the original scope of the MI.
    The military to military cooperation has yeilded impressive
   results.  While I know some of the higher-ups in SEDENA are still
   hesitant about cooperation with the Americans, SEMAR is a
   completely different institutional culture.  We are talking about
   smarter, more globalized, better trained people that, before
   Calderon took office, were eager to particpate in third generation
   UN peace enforcement missions.  They know what they are doing,
   though the same is only true for SEDENA about 60% of the time.

   As best as I can tell, any and all work is being done in
   conjunction with Mexico, at least from what I know and can infer.
   The repercussions on cooperation from a black op that we are not
   aware of would be immense, even if the government didn't care.
   Therefore, I can't confirm that there are independent US operations
   in Mexico of any sort, but I can say that the institutional
   mechanisms that would allow for cooperation are most certainly in
   place.

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-09 05:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1799622_mx1-on-marine-force-recon-possible-involvement-in-mexico-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>fred.burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alex.posey@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1800240</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - AUSTRALIA - Independents split - CN65
</title>
    <description>   Chris and I were just discussing this. the plan is a national funded and
   controlled fiber optic broadband network. The security issue has not
   received nearly as much debate or discussion as the political debates
   about cost and competitiveness, even though it was frequently referred to
   during the China-Google debates. The criticism by some activists has been
   that Oz will have complete control over information. The complaint by
   national security types has been that a foreign sponsored hacker (such as
   China) would access a gold mine by breaking into this network, and that it
   should be coupled with a more comprehensive cyber-security plan.

   we need more info about it but here is the Oz House of Reps' latest report
   on cyber crime which was oft-cited in questions relating to this:
   http://www.aph.gov.au/house/committee/coms/cybercrime/report.htm

   essentially the security risk argument is that a centrally administered
   broadband network would be more vulnerable to foreign attack.

   Of course will defer to Jen's source on this and would very much like to
   hear more details/specifics (or links to places to find them) about the
   security risks.

   Peter Zeihan wrote:

     how is the NBN a security risk?

     On 9/7/2010 9:44 AM, Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

       National Broadband Network
</description>
    <date>2010-09-07 18:19:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1800240_re-insight-australia-independents-split-cn65-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>matt.gertken@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1808255</id>
    <title>Re: Former Spanish PM Azner
</title>
    <description>   At least 20 camps? Pretty impressive. That's more than I've seen in OS,
   where so far all they've been focusing on is the Guasdalito camp where
   Cubillas was allegedly at, but it's quite possible all those former
   etarras are spread out all over the place. I would he's a lot more open
   about heaping criticisms on Chavez since I heard him speak at Trinity back
   in 2004, where he referred to him as "an interesting man." My brother has
   a picture of himself with Aznar at that event. Every time I look at it I
   really do think, it's always his hair that I notice.....

   -----------------
   Reginald Thompson

   Cell: (011) 504 8990-7741

   OSINT
   Stratfor

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, November 16, 2010 5:26:21 PM
   Subject: Former Spanish PM Azner

   Wow, SeA+-or presidente is hardcore.. Way more extreme than even the  
   Israeli officials I've heard speak. He honestly believes that all  
   terrorists are the same and that nothing short of total war can defeat  
   them. He is adamantly against any kind of negotiation with terrorists  
   and criticizes France, Germany and others heavily in this regard. He  
   attributes French and German "weakness" on counterterrorism to their  
   larger Muslim populations. He said OBL's statement on retaking Andaluz  
   is all he heard and the Germans and French just didn't get it. He says  
   poverty has zero connection to terrorism and that developmental aid  
   policies are useless. On ETA, he said the ceasefires are just time  
   buying measures, nothing more. In Catalonia he says the regional govt  
   encourages Muslim immigration from Pakistan, Algeria, etc because they  
   can more easily linguistically integrate them as opposed to Spanish-
   speaking immigrants. This is also where the most radical imams are in  
   the country. He also said ETA has at least 20 camps in Venezuela and  
   ggat farc and eta work with each other in training l, weapons, etc.

   Overall, he's very ideological and hardline. Good reminder of the  
   personal role in poltics (though he also paid for that and is  
   embarassed by his loss)

   Also, great hair.

   Sent from my iPhone
</description>
    <date>2010-11-17 00:35:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1808255_re-former-spanish-pm-azner-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reginald.thompson@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1808963</id>
    <title>Security Weekly... it is in EDIT, so you may want to read and
 comment SOON
</title>
    <description>   On November 3, the US district Court in El Paso began hearing a case
   concerning members of a group that calls itself Barrio Azteca (BA).  The
   charges include drug trafficking and distrbution, extortion, money
   laundering and murder.  The six defendants are the three bosses of the
   organization - Benjamin Alvarez, Manuel Cardoza, Carlos Perea a** a
   sergeant a** Said Francisco Herrera a** lieutenant a** Eugene Mona- and
   associate a** Arturo Enriquez.  It is the first major trial involving the
   BA and the testimony is revealing a lot about how this El Paso-based
   prison gang operates and interfaces with the Mexican drug cartel allies
   that supply its drugs.  The BA is, of course, not the only street gang
   operating in the US with ties to Mexico.  Getting narcotics over the
   border into the US and distributing it requires a large presence and
   street gangs in the US are filling this need.  The details that are coming
   out now can be applied to other gangs like the Mexican Mafia, the Texas
   Syndicate, SureA+-os and even transnational street gangs like &lt;MS-13 &gt;.

    

   Stratfor has covered the increasing &lt;violence in Mexico
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20081112_worrying_signs_border_raids &gt;
   heavily.  The struggles amongst various cartels for territory and the
   struggle between the cartels and the Mexican military over control of
   Mexico have led to thousands of deaths in the past years.  There are no
   indications that this will let up.  But these cartels are in the business
   of selling drugs (marijuana, cocaine, heroin, etc.) in the United States. 
   Large amounts of narcotics flow north and large amounts of cash flow
   south.  Managing these transactions requires a physical presence in the US
   that has an allegiance to the cartels in Mexico.  Most of these gangs are,
   like the BA, comprised mostly of Mexican immigrants or Mexican-Americans,
   but white supremacist groups, mixed-race motorcycle gangs and black street
   gangs are also heavily involved  Gangs like the BA are very territorial
   and usually only cover a specific region, so one Mexican cartel may work
   with three to four street gangs in the US.  Certainly they are not all the
   same, but looking at the mechanics of how the Barrio Azteca operates
   certainly gives insight into how other gangs, allies and rivals, operate
   as well.

    

   The BA started off as a prison gang in a Texas state penitentiary in
   1986.  Five inmates from El Paso started up the gang as a means of
   protection, as ethnic tension in prisons can be brutal.  The name Barrio
   Azteca means a**the Aztec Neighborhooda** and is likely a reference to an
   area of El Paso where the gang is from.  By the 1990s the gang had spread
   through other prisons and had established a presence on the streets of El
   Paso.  Reports indicate that in the late 1990s, the BA worked with the
   Joacquin Guzmana**s Sinaloa Federation Drug Trafficking Organization (DTO)
   which then controlled the drug shipments to Juarez a** El Pasoa**s sister
   city across the border.

    

   However, testimony from several different witnesses on both sides of the
   trial have confirmed that the BA is now only working with the Vicente
   Carrillo-Fuentes (VCF) DTO which has always controlled much of Chihuahua
   state and Ciudad Juarez, but broke away from the Sinaloa Federation
   earlier in 2008.  BA followed VCF and is working for them to traffic drugs
   across the border at the Juarez plaza.   

    

   According to testimony from the ongoing RICO case, drugs are taken at
   discount from the supplier on the Mexico side and then distributed to
   dealers on the street.  These must pay a**taxesa** to BA collectors in
   order to keep up their activities.  According to testimony from Josue
   Aguirre (a former gang member and FBI informant), the BA collects taxes
   from 47 different street level narcotic operations in El Paso alone. 
   Failure to pay these taxes results in death.  One of the murder charges in
   the current RICO case involves the death of an El Paso dealer because he
   failed to pay-up when the collectors came to get his money. 

    

   Once collected, the money goes in several different directions.  First,
   the lieutenants and captains a** the mid-level members of the gang a**
   receive $50 and $200 per month respectively for compensation.  The rest of
   the ganga**s profits are then transferred using money orders to accounts
   belonging to the head bosses (Alvarez, Cardoza and Perea) in prison.  Cash
   payments are also brought back to Juarez to pay the suppliers of the drug
   a** the VCF.

    

   The BA receives discounts on drugs from Juarez by providing tactical help
   to their associates south of the border.  VCF bosses in Juarez can go into
   hiding in El Paso under BA protection if their lives are in danger in
   Juarez and on the flip side, the VCF can order the BA to track down
   enemies hiding in El Paso.  Gustavo Gallardo, a former BA member,
   testified that in 2005, he was sent to pick up a man in downtown El Paso
   who had cheated the cartel of money.  Upon delivery, the man was bound
   with rope and duct tape and driven to Juarez where Gallardo assumed that
   he was killed. 

    

   The constant illegal activity that the gang is involved in means that its
   members constantly cycle in and out of prison.  Many of the current BA
   members were involved in smaller, local El Paso gangs before they were
   picked up and sent to prison.  Once in prison, they join the BA by being
   sponsored by a a**godfathera** who walks the recruit through the process.
   The BA performs a kind of background check on the new recruit by
   circulating his name throughout the organization.  Specifically, the BA is
   looking for any evidence that the new recruit has cooperated with the
   police. 

    

   Prison gangs are endemic to prison systems, where security comes in
   numbers.  Tensions that mount (usually along racial lines) between
   dangerous and violent people regularly break out into conflict that is
   often deadly.  Being a member of a gang within a prison affords a certain
   amount of protection against rival groups.  Once a gang grows and
   establishes a clear hierarchy, its leader wields an impressive amount of
   power a** some even go on to take over the prison like Pablo Escobar did
   in Colombia.  The ancestors of Russiaa**s organized crime clans organized
   themselves in prisons and essentially took them over, running them for a
   profit and enjoying a great deal of freedom.  Within the US, there are no
   fewer than nine prison gangs that have connections to Mexican drug
   cartels. The Barrio Azteca is one prison gang among many.

    

   It may seem strange that members on the outside send money to and answer
   to bosses in prison since they are locked up, but these bosses wield a
   great deal of power.  Disobedience in the gang is punishable by death and
   regardless of whether a boss is in prison or not, he can order a hit on a
   member who has crossed him.  Another thing for these gang members to
   remember is that if they end up in prison again (which is very likely)
   they will depend on the help of these bosses to stay alive and perhaps
   earn some money while doing time.  The fact that BA has a gang in
   virtually every penitentiary in Texas means that wherever you are sent,
   you will have a protection network in place.  For those with an
   illustrious prison record, they might know the leader of every prison
   chapter which increases his prestige.  The constant cycling of members
   from the outside world into prison, then, does not inhibit the gang but
   makes them more cohesive a** it uses the prison system to increase bonds
   between gang members.

    

   Some challenges do come up as far as communication, but the BA seems to
   have overcome this.  Edward Ruiz, a former member who testified in the
   trial, said that he operated an address where letters and packages were
   sent from jailed members and then he distributed the mail to the other
   members from 2003 to 2007.  He was essentially the ganga**s mailman.  This
   tactic would ensure that all prison communications would be connected to
   only one address and wouldna**t give away the location of other members. 
   Gang members maintained coded communications this way, keeping the outside
   and inside members in touch.

    

   The BA also allegedly used Sandy Valles New, who worked in the
   investigations section of the Federal Public Defender's office in El Paso
   from 1996 to 2002, to pass communications between the two branches of the
   gang.  She had access to inmates, with whom she would communicate and then
   pass on information to members on the street and vise-versa.  Recorded
   conversations caught her talking to one of the bosses and lead defendants,
   Carlos Perea about her fear of losing her job.  She even talked of
   crossing over to Juarez to and communicating with BA members in Mexico.

    

   The BA might have had sources on the inside helping them, but the FBI was
   able to &lt;infiltrate LINK&gt; the BA, too.  Josue Aguirre and Johnny
   Michelleti both informed on gang activities to the FBI since 2003 and 2005
   respectively.  Edward Ruiz, the mailman, also handed over stacks of
   letters to the FBI.   

    

   Barrio Azteca is only one of dozens of gangs that operate along the
   US/Mexico border that help Mexican DTOs smuggle narcotics across the
   border and then go on to distribute them.  Having a representative group
   in the US is fundamental to Mexican DTOs since the border is the most
   difficult chokepoint to pass in the narcotics supply chain.  Getting large
   amounts of drugs across the border on a daily basis requires local
   connections that can pay-off corrupt border guards or border town
   policemen.  Border gangs also have the contacts on the street who sell
   drugs on the retail level, where markups bring in large profits.  But, as
   we have seen in this trial, the partnership goes beyond just narcotics and
   involved violence, too.  Considering the raging violence in Mexico
   surrounding narcotics trafficking, there is a genuine worry that this
   violence (and the corruption) could bring instability to the US. 

    

   The details that this case has brought out indicate that the BA works
   closely with the VCF in Mexico and has contributed to drug related
   violence in the US.  Killing a street dealer who failed to pay his fees
   occurs across the country and is not a unique practice to Mexican drug
   traffickers.  However, apprehending offenders in El Paso and driving them
   across the border to Juarez to be held or killed does draw a very clear
   link between violence in Mexico and the US.  It is not new though. 
   Previous operations like the one targeting a delinquent drug dealer in
   &lt;Phoenix
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/mexican_cartels_and_fallout_phoenix &gt;,
   kidnappings and attacks against &lt;US Border Patrol agents
   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/u_s_mexico_violence_along_border &gt; have
   indicated that violence has been creeping over.  So far violence related
   to drug trafficking has &lt;come close to
   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/u_s_targeted_officer_killings_crossing_border
   &gt; but not killed any law enforcement officials or innocent US civilians
   a** Mexican cartels and their US allies have stayed disciplined so far,
   only targeting those involved in the drug trade. 

    

   One of the roles that the BA and other street gangs fill is that of
   enforcer.  They have tight control over a specific territory because that
   is how they survive.  They keep tabs on people to make sure they are
   paying their taxes and not affiliating with rival gangs.  To draw an
   analogy, they are the local police who know the situation on the ground
   and can enforce specific rules handed down by a broader organization.  The
   BAa**s ability to strike has been proven to be real a** they may not be as
   well trained as a group like the Zetas or the tactical team that carried
   out a home invasion &lt;in Phoenix in XXXX LINK&gt; but they nevertheless have
   tight control over their territory. 

    

   Another invitation to cross-border violence is the fact that the BA is
   obliged to offer refuge to Mexican cartel members seeking safety in the
   US.  The cartel members that cross into the US most likely have a bounty
   on their head and, although cartels have thus far mostly shown restraint
   in following targets into the US, it isna**t clear if this will be the
   case forever.  The more violent Mexico (and particularly Juarez) becomes,
   the greater the risk that cartel leaders face and the more pressure they
   will be under to cross into the US in search of refuge.  The more leaders
   cross over and hide with gangs like the BA, the greater the temptation is
   to follow them across and kill them in the US.  If other border gangs in
   California, Arizona and New Mexico are doing this (and we dona**t doubt
   that they are) then the risk for cross-border violence increases as
   targets in Mexico relocate to the US.  The trend has already been seen
   &lt;within Mexico http://www.stratfor.com/mexicos_newest_criminal_refuge &gt;,
   but crossing the border into the US is a different story.

    

   For now, there are two primary reasons for why Mexican cartel violence has
   for the most part stopped short of crossing the US border.  First, the
   prospect of provoking US law enforcement does not pan out well for DTOs
   operating along the border.  They do not want to provoke a coordinated
   response from a highly capable federal US police force like the DEA, ATF
   and FBI.  By keeping violence low and primarily aimed at other gang
   members and drug dealers, they are able to lessen their profile in the
   eyes of these agencies.  But if violence increased and police or civilians
   were killed intentionally or otherwise, scrutiny would dramatically
   increase.

    

   The second reason that violence has not crossed the border wholesale is
   that gangs like the BA are in place to enforce the DTOsa** laws for them. 
   There is less of a need to send cartel members into the US to kill an
   offending drug dealer when you have a tight alliance with a border gang
   that keeps your drug and money supply moving smoothly and carries out
   occasional killings to maintain order. 

    

   While US federal law enforcement agents keep a sharp eye on violence along
   the border and promise a swift response, the integrity of the BA and its
   ability to carry out the writ of larger DTOs in Mexico may not be quite so
   certain.  Trials like the one that began November 3 appear likely to
   undermine BA activity in crucial trafficking corridors like El
   Paso/Juarez.  The indictment and possible incarceration of the six alleged
   BA members would not damage the gang so bad a** afterall, the gang is used
   to operating out of prison and there are certainly members ready to step
   up to fill some shoes.  However, the fact that the ganga**s secrets and
   m.o. is being publicized and disseminated to law enforcement officials and
   the general public alike will likely increase scrutiny on the gang and
   could very well lead to many more arrests.  Considering the fact that the
   FBI had at least two informants in the gang, gang leaders have probably
   moved to contain the damages and isolate the members that those informants
   jeopardized; this shakes up and organization and disrupts the daily flow
   of business, making them less effective.

    

   If the BA is shaken up enough by this trial and the sensitive information
   that is has released, then the VCF in Juarez has a weaker hand in El
   Paso.  The BA will no doubt survive this round of investigations and
   trials remaining largely in tact, but given the high stakes across the
   border in Mexico, if the BA is off of its game, then the VCF may not be
   able to rely on the BA as much as it did before.  A degradation of the
   relationship could mean that the VCF would either rely on its own members
   in Juarez to carry out hits against offenders and would have to provide
   its own security to leaders seeking refuge there, or that it would turn to
   a new gang under less police scrutiny.  If either scenario were to happen,
   the spillover of violence from Mexico into the US could increase either
   through direct Mexican cartel involvement or the beginning of a rivalry
   over control of El Paso.

    

   Assuming that the relationship between the VCF and the BA is
   representative of other relationships between Mexican cartels and allied
   gangs in the US, this scenario could play out not just between the VCF and
   the BA, but also between gangs like Hermanos de Pistoleros Latinos in
   Houston, the Texas Syndicate and Tango Blast operating in the valley and
   their suppliers in the Gulf cartel; the Mexican Mafia in California and
   Texas who work with the Tijuana and Sinaloa cartels and other gangs
   operating in the US with ties to Mexican cartels like Mexikanemi, Nortenos
   and Surenos.  Also, BA does not only operate in El Paso, but elsewhere in
   West Texas, New Mexico and Arizona. 

    

   The fact remains that Mexican cartels are not eager to tangle with US law
   enforcement, but they will (and have) in the past when forced to.  As
   their enforcers stateside face more legal pressure, it will be interesting
   to watch how the cartels will respond. 

    

   --
   Marko Papic

   Stratfor Junior Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
   AIM: mpapicstratfor
</description>
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    <id>1810556</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2010-11-22 18:00:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
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  <doc>
    <id>1810570</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2010-11-22 17:34:28</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
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  <doc>
    <id>1810640</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat
</title>
    <description>   Any thoughts on where you guys are thinking of going with this?

   Der Spiegel article is indeed interesting.

   On 11/22/10 9:28 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     Great report from Der Spiegel (thanks Mikey).  I suggest anyone
     interested to read the whole thing.  They ask the right questions, and
     while not as much detail as I hoped, give us a much better understanding
     on the threat in Germany. 

     The BKA (germany's FBI) must be extremely busy verifying the details of
     this virtual walk-in.  It obviously caused the germans to shit their
     pants.  But the real questions are buried in the article---how real was
     this plot, how real is the source, is the source just trying to get back
     to the land of brezeln and bier? Trying to double-cross them somehow?

     Also note the tip off from the FBI (cue fred), not the usual CIA liaison
     with BND. 

     For Eurasia, there's a lot in here on the internal politics of the
     interior minister position, and the relation between state and federal
     government. 

     On 11/22/10 8:55 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

       -------- Original Message --------

        Subject: [OS] GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat 
           Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 08:38:21 -0600                          
           From: Graham Smith &lt;graham.smith@stratfor.com&gt;                 
       Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                            
             To: os@stratfor.com                                          

        11/22/2010 11:38 AM
       Fears of a Mumbai Redux
       The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat

       http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,730377,00.html
       By Matthias Bartsch, Yassin Musharbash and Holger Stark

       Germany is currently in a state of high alert. Security officials are
       warning that they have concrete information pointing to a possible
       terror attack on the federal parliament building in Berlin, a
       massively popular tourist attraction. The days of Interior Minister
       Thomas de Maiziere's reserved stances in dealing with such warnings
       appear to be over.

       The call came from abroad, and the man speaking hurriedly on the other
       end of the line sounded as if he feared for his life. He wanted out,
       he told the officers of the German Federal Criminal Police Office
       (BKA) -- out of the terrorist scene. He wanted to come back to
       Germany, back to his family. Then he asked if German officials could
       help him.

       Right now, they're trying to do just that. The BKA is pursuing the
       case under the codename "Nova." The apparently remorseful man could be
       an important possible whistleblower from a dangerous region of the
       globe. In fact, he is also the most recent reason why German Interior
       Minister Thomas de Maiziere put the entire country in a state of
       fright on Wednesday.

       During a hastily called press conference that day, de Maiziere stated
       that Germany faced the threat of terrorist attacks that might be
       launched against the country at some point in November. As he put it,
       Germany is "presently dealing with a new situation."
       Just two days earlier, the source had called for the third time in
       just a short period and provided more information. He told officials
       that a small group of terrorists wanted to conduct a raid on the
       Reichstag building in Berlin, which houses the federal parliament, and
       that that was only one of the targets included in their attack plans.

       Germany on High Alert

       Since then, Germany has been in a state of high alert. The Reichstag
       is surrounded with barricades and its popular cupola tourist
       attraction temporarily closed to visitors. Police armed with
       submachine guns are patrolling major railway stations and airports.
       And vacations have been called off for officials at the country's
       security agencies. Wherever they have cause for doing so, the
       authorities are secretly monitoring communications, conducting
       surveillance operations and launching undercover investigations. At
       the moment, investigators seem to be at a loss; their modus operandi:
       "We'll prod the shrubs and see if we can flush out any birds."

       "There is cause for worry, but no cause for hysteria," de Maiziere
       assured his listeners. But while he has never been much of an
       agitator, his colleagues at the state level have described the
       situation in much more drastic terms. Uwe Schu:nemann, for example,
       who has been the interior minister of the northwestern state of Lower
       Saxony since 2003, stated that he had "never experienced a heightened
       security situation like this one." And Berlin Senator for the Interior
       Ehrhart Ko:rting, whose position is tantamount to that of a government
       minister in the city-state, has already even gone so far as to call on
       the inhabitants of the German capital city to report
       suspicious-looking individuals of Arab origin to the police. "If you
       suddenly see three somewhat strange-looking men who are new to your
       neighborhood, who hide their faces and who only speak Arabic,"
       Ko:rting said, "you should report them to the authorities."

       Under heightened pressure, officials in Germany's 16 federal states
       are now checking to see when and where major events are scheduled to
       take place this coming week within their boundaries. And nothing
       suggested as a possible target is being discounted, no matter how
       unlikely. For example, officials in Rhineland-Palatinate warned the
       state's interior minister, Karl Peter Burch, that there was always a
       lot going on at IKEA stores on Saturdays.[WTF]

       Serenity, Scaremongering and Strategy

       Since last week, German politicians at both the state and federal
       levels have once again had to figure out how they will handle
       themselves when making warnings about terrorist attacks. They have had
       to come up with a language that can simultaneously convey both an
       alert and a sense of calm.

       This is no easy task. For one thing, this isn't the first time this
       has happened. In September 2009, for example, right before federal
       elections were held, there were concrete threats that resulted in a
       heightened security situation. But, in the end, nothing happened. This
       time around, people are wondering whether they are on the precipice of
       an emergency or whether these are once again empty threats.

       Still, one thing is certain: For the time being, Germany has become a
       different country -- more nervous, more anxious, more agitated. And
       Germany's domestic security policies are being put to the test.

       When Interior Minister de Maiziere assumed his office in October 2009
       in conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel's government, he aimed to
       cool down the heated sense of alarm regularly fanned out by his
       predecessors. What's more, the man who had served as Merkel's chief of
       staff in Chancellery until being moved to the role of interior
       minister in her new government, was given the task of nurturing a more
       relaxed relationship between her party, the Christian Democratic Union
       (CDU), and its new coalition partner, the business-friendly Free
       Democratic Party (FDP). In particular, it was his job to not draw out
       the long-standing conflict over domestic security policies with the
       Justice Ministry, which has been led since the 2009 election by Sabine
       Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, a member of the FDP. Indeed, Merkel
       feared that the quarrelsome FDP might try to capitalize on the issue
       to win over more voters, so she assigned de Maiziere to prevent that
       from happening.

       In fact, the plan was to repeat the same strategy that the CDU and its
       Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), had used when
       they were in the so-called "grand coalition" with the center-left
       Social Democratic Party, between 2005 and 2009. At the time, they made
       a point of undermining the SPD by championing what had traditionally
       been the latter party's issues.

       A Game-Changer

       But now the game plan has changed. This November will drastically
       alter de Maiziere's understanding of his role in office. If he tries
       to return things to their previous state of calm, he's going to have a
       very tough time. In fact, it's much more likely that he will be a
       completely different interior minister.

       For a while now, de Maiziere's softer stance has prompted opposition
       by politicians on the right involved with domestic security issues.
       But they are now calling louder than ever for a tougher course to be
       followed. Merkel is also adjusting to the new situation and is
       reportedly happy with the way de Maiziere handled himself last week.
       Likewise, no one seems to have voiced any criticism last Thursday
       evening during a meeting of the Coalition Committee, a regular
       gathering of the parties that are part of the government.

       The almost complete lack of protest has a lot to do with where the
       alarming information is coming from. In fact, information regarding
       the supposedly imminent attacks has come from two independent sources.
       Shortly before receiving the telephone call about the planned attacks,
       BKA officials had received a cable from their American counterparts at
       the FBI, America's federal police force, warning of possible attacks.

       Still, what truth is there in these "security-related" pieces of
       information coming from both domestic and foreign sources? And, given
       all the discrepancies in the warning messages, just how much do they
       deserve to be trusted? Indeed, even among security officials
       themselves, there is some doubt about how legitimate these statements
       are -- and about just how acute the danger threatening Germany really
       is.

       An Attack Modelled after Mumbai[plot details in this section]
       What the caller reported was undeniably alarming. According to him,
       al-Qaida and associated groups based in Pakistan were making joint
       preparations for an attack in Germany. One idea was to remotely
       detonate a bomb using a mobile phone. Another called for a small group
       of terrorists to storm the Reichstag with guns blazing, take hostages
       and end everything in one calamitous bloodbath. Indeed, BKA officials
       learned that the latter plan had been modeled on the storming of
       luxury hotels in Mumbai, the Indian capital, almost exactly two years
       ago, in a massacre that left 175 people dead.

       According to the caller, the plan called for the terrorists to procure
       the submachine guns, automatic rifles, explosives and whatever else
       they would need to storm Germany's parliament building in the Balkans.
       He said that two men had already traveled to Germany six to eight
       weeks earlier, adding that one had the nom de guerre of "Abu Mohammed"
       and that the other one was a German of Turkish origin. Both apparently
       had roots in the Greater Berlin metropolitan area, were currently
       unemployed and living off of welfare payments and had immersed
       themselves in the anonymity provided by a major city -- until the time
       should come for their activation.

       Likewise, there were allegedly four other volunteers -- including a
       German, a Turk, a North African and another jihadist of unknown
       identity -- in the training camps run by al-Qaida and related groups
       waiting for the signal to travel to Germany. And, according to the
       telephone source, al-Qaida's plan was to attack in February or March.
       The only question now relates to just how credible the caller's
       statements are. He is an insider who joined up with armed groups
       several months ago and has earned a reputation as a fanatic fighter.
       But could it be that he is only trying to tell German officials the
       juiciest things possible in order to raise his own market value and
       thereby prompt them to extract him from the terror scene? Or could it
       be that al-Qaida is even planning a second spectacular coup like the
       one in December 2009, when the Americans allowed a supposedly
       top-level turncoat onto an American military base without any sort of
       pat-down, who went on to detonate his explosive vest and blow seven
       CIA officials to bits?

       A Strange Message

       A clear picture has yet to emerge. And one reason for this is also the
       fact that it was only two weeks ago that the FBI first decided to
       share information about another possible attack with German officials.

       In this case, even the way contact was made was unusual. Under normal
       circumstances, liaisons from the CIA station in Germany are the ones
       to communicate American warnings to their German counterparts. But,
       this time around, it was an apparently particularly anxious FBI that
       chose to directly notify the BKA.
       The FBI told the Germans about an obscure Indian group called "Saif,"
       or "sword." Despite being a Shiite group, it had allegedly made a pact
       with al-Qaida, a Sunni organization, and sent five of its men to the
       Pakistani province of Waziristan for training. According to the FBI,
       two volunteers -- who were already equipped with visas allowing them
       to travel freely within the 25 European countries belonging to the
       Schengen zone -- were supposedly already en route to Germany and would
       enter the United Arab Emirates on Monday, Nov. 22. There, they would
       allegedly be provided with new travel documents before traveling on to
       Germany. One of the men is supposedly named "Khan," which is about as
       common in that part of the world as "Smith" is in English-speaking
       countries. And no firm conclusion had been made about their
       nationalities.

       The FBI agents even named the presumed masterminds behind the
       operation. A certain Mushtaq Altaf Bin-Khadri, who is in charge of
       finances and training for "Saif," allegedly dispatched the terrorist
       squad. But the FBI was not in a position to comment on the targets of
       the two men in Germany.

       One name came up time and again in the communique, and one that
       pricked the Germans' ears: Dawood Ibrahim. The 54-year-old arms trader
       is "India's most-wanted man." The US government has listed him as a
       "global terrorist" and persuaded the United Nations to place his name
       on a list of supporters of terror. Ibrahim is rumored to be the head
       of D-Company, a criminal syndicate named after himself, and is
       believed to be in charge of smuggling the suspected terrorists into
       Germany.

       Both the FBI and the BKA are attaching a lot of importance to the
       information in the FBI communique. But the intelligence services of
       the two countries -- the CIA in the United States and the BND and
       Office for the Protection of the Constitution in Germany, the
       country's foreign and domestic intelligence agencies, respectively --
       point to internal contradictions as reasons for their skepticism. As
       they see it, for example, it is highly unlikely that a Shiite group
       would team up with Sunni terrorists, especially since a good part of
       al-Qaida propaganda vilifies Shiites. Other reasons for doubt include
       the facts that none of the intelligence agencies was previously
       familiar with an organization called "Saif," that there have been no
       previously recorded threats against Germany by Indian extremists, and
       that the whole scenario seems rather implausible.

       On the other hand, the FBI information is uncommonly concrete. In
       addition to the names of the suspects, it also provides information
       about the exact day on which they are supposed to arrive in the United
       Arab Emirates. Moreover, Ibrahim is believed to be one of the men
       behind the terror attacks in Mumbai. If he really is involved, that
       alone would be reason enough for worry.

       Abnormal Circumstances

       Under normal circumstances, a message of this kind from the United
       States would no doubt be cause for serious-minded scrutiny, but it
       would not be a cause for alarm. For example, the BKA would go through
       all recent visa applications, and federal police officers would take a
       closer look at all the people entering Germany from Arab states. And
       the intelligence services would make the rounds to see if any of its
       partners had any helpful information on the matter.

       Indeed, under normal circumstances, there are always a lot of these
       communiques, most of which turn out to be false alarms. But these are
       no normal circumstances. Germany is in a state of emergency. Other
       countries, such as the United States, employ a system of official
       warning levels based on color codes that change -- from yellow to
       orange, for example -- when the danger level is thought to increase.
       But, in Germany, the interior minister is the barometer: He consults
       with experts -- and then it is he who must call the shots.

       For the minister, a situation like this presents a dilemma. If he
       remains silent and something happens, he's a failure. If he makes loud
       warning and nothing happens, he's just a rabble-rouser trying to push
       through controversial tougher security laws. And, of course, the
       public never thanks you if everyday life continues in a normal,
       peaceful way.

       Absolute Security Remains a Pipe Dream

       When de Maiziere became Germany's interior minister, he had planned to
       lead the ministry in a level-headed way. For example, he prefers to
       use phrases such as "internal calm" rather than "internal security."
       And it was only six weeks ago that he uttered the sentence: "There's
       no cause for alarm." But, since then, the chorus of warning voices has
       only ballooned in size.

       This change in course is the combined result of everything that
       happened beforehand. It might very well turn out that the alleged
       Indian terror squad stays home and that the raid on the Reichstag
       never happens. But what will remain is a well-founded supposition that
       there is a critical mass of terrorists in the border region between
       Afghanistan and Pakistan that is thinking about launching attacks in
       Europe -- and certainly in Germany, as well.

       Raw Nerves

       Given such circumstances, there is a major sense of alarm among German
       officials. Last Thursday, just a day after de Maiziere's shocking
       press conference, the BKA issued a press release "in connection with
       the current high-risk situation." It reported that a piece of
       suspicious luggage had been discovered a day earlier in Windhoek, the
       capital of Namibia, before being loaded onto a plane bound for
       Germany. The laptop bag contained batteries, wires, a detonator and a
       clock -- in other words, all the ingredients you need for a potential
       airborne catastrophe.

       It sounded as if another terror plot had been foiled. Had there been a
       plan to blow up Air Berlin Flight 7377 en route to Munich? And had the
       authorities, yet again, discovered an explosive device at the last
       minute? In the end, all the worry was unfounded. As it turned out, the
       piece of luggage was a test device built by a company that designs
       "real test" suitcases to be used to test security measures. It remains
       unclear who checked the bag in. But the fact that the BKA was so quick
       to go into alarm mode -- and publicly so -- has been a communications
       debacle.

       Of course, these days, nobody wants to be the one that wasn't
       sufficiently circumspect, the one who took too long to speak up. No
       one wants a replay of situations like the one from the beginning of
       November, when de Maiziere didn't know for hours whether the package
       that had arrived at the Chancellery contained actual explosives or was
       just a false alarm. Now, the threshold for sounding the alarm is
       already much lower.

       Bonded by Fear

       Of course, you can never be too sure. Over the last 12 months, a
       series of attacks concocted in the Afghan-Pakistani border region have
       been foiled in the West. For example, in May, a car bomb set in New
       York's Times Square by a man with ties to the Pakistani Taliban failed
       to properly detonate. In Copenhagen, al-Qaida had made plans to storm
       the offices of the Jyllands-Posten newspaper as revenge for its 2005
       publishing of caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad. In October 2009,
       David Headley, an American citizen with Pakistani roots, was arrested
       after having already visited the newspaper's offices in order to scout
       them out before the planned attack. Other targets reportedly included
       the subway systems of New York City and Washington.

       On the other hand, absolute security is a pipe dream. For example,
       British authorities had even conducted rehearsals for how to respond
       to possible attacks. But, even so, when attacks claiming 56 lives
       (including those of four attackers) did strike London, on July 7,
       2005, they were unable to prevent them. Likewise, US intelligence
       services had warned India a number of times that terrorists were
       planning attacks in Mumbai.

       The new situation in Germany has at least had one positive side
       effect: For the time being, the traditionally quarrelsome interior
       ministers from both the state and the federal levels have refrained
       from their usual bickering. Following informal talks held last
       Thursday in Hamburg, Minister Bruch of Rhineland-Palatinate noted that
       he had "never experienced such harmony within this group" that has
       apparently been bonded together by their shared fear.

       Translated from the German by Josh Ward

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

   --

   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

   Marko Papic

   Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

   STRATFOR

   700 Lavaca Street - 900

   Austin, Texas

   78701 USA

   P: + 1-512-744-4094

   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-22 17:34:28</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1810640_re-discussion-germany-ct-the-story-behind-germany-s-terror.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1810862</id>
    <title>Re: Insight - Obama, Israel, Mike Steele (internal use only)
</title>
    <description>   i don't really... he lost to Bush Sr... what happened?

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "Secure List" &lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, February 14, 2009 3:06:00 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: Insight - Obama, Israel, Mike Steele (internal use only)

   Remember what happened to Haig? 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Saturday, February 14, 2009 2:55 PM
   To: Fred Burton
   Cc: Secure List
   Subject: Re: Insight - Obama, Israel, Mike Steele (internal use only)
   Right... but he never got to be the President... See Obama had all the
   hippies thinking he was a peacenik... instead he is a baaaad mother...
   "shut your mouth"!

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "Secure List" &lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, February 14, 2009 2:52:41 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: Insight - Obama, Israel, Mike Steele (internal use only)

   The last one to do this was Al Haig. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Saturday, February 14, 2009 2:51 PM
   To: Fred Burton
   Cc: Secure List
   Subject: Re: Insight - Obama, Israel, Mike Steele (internal use only)
   I dont know about the rest of you, but the president who says "Fuck you,
   I'm the President, sign it." is my kind of guy...

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Secure List" &lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, February 14, 2009 2:48:40 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Insight - Obama, Israel, Mike Steele (internal use only)  

   From a US Congressman friend (internal use only)  --
    
   1) There were two Democratic Senators concerned about the size of the
   stimulus bill and received calls from Obama.  He said to them, and I
   qoute, "Fuck you, I'm the President, sign it."  The Congressmen were
   shocked.  Source advised this should be leaked very soon. 
    
   2) Rahm Emmanuel called BiBi and told BiBi that the Obama Administration
   wants a coalition govt, which includes Kadema.  Needless to say, this has
   not been received very well.  BiBi should be PM in 2/3 days.   Source
   believes Emmanuel will be removed soon. 
    
   3) Mike Steele, the new Chairman of the RNC, is putting together his
   strategy but believes numerous Senate seats can be won.  Obama has caused
   the GOP to close ranks and come together.  Steele found it funny that in
   the midst of the economic chaos, Obama had a basketball court installed
   inside the White House.  Steele believes Obama and the stimulus plan is
   disastrous for our country and intends to push that theme going
   forward.   
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-07-28 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1810862_re-insight-obama-israel-mike-steele-internal-use-only-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1812436</id>
    <title>BULGARIA - SRM UPDATE- 090106
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1812436_bulgaria-srm-update-090106-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>srmupdate@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/128/128973_BULGARIA - Country Writeup - 090106.doc</path><size>36352</size><md5></md5><sha1>f3e9187d419a19309871286fe040c978cc23add8</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1813919</id>
    <title>Re: [Eurasia] Athens' Indignants threaten political system
</title>
    <description>   You know this happened in Mexico after the last Presidential elections and
   Calderon just let them sit there for a year and a half.

   On 6/3/11 8:26 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

     Depends on their numbers. If they get a massive group of people (very
     unlikely of course) just sitting around somewhere then it'll matter to
     some extent and at some point. But other than that you're right as long
     as they don't start rioting a bit they'll just be ignored under some
     kind of a number threshold.

     Look at Spain though, let's assume they get a few (in the high) hundreds
     for the nights and then thousands during the day. They'll force some
     kind of a reaction (especially because the Greek police cannot empty
     that square for political reasons). No idea what kind of number
     potential we're talking about with these guys though.

     On 06/03/2011 02:14 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

       Ok, so... If they refuse to vote for anyone and dont have the balls to
       riot, how do they matter? 
       It is a legit question. I am asking. 

       On Jun 3, 2011, at 8:08 AM, Benjamin Preisler
       &lt;ben.preisler@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

 To Ethnos - Greece. For more than a week now the "indignant
 citizens" movement has been demonstrating in Athens against the
 government's drastic austerity measures. The protests are a
 symptom of a major crisis of the political system in which the
 great majority of citizens have lost faith in the parties,
 writes the left-liberal daily To Ethnos: "Already the parties
 are discussing whether this phenomenon represents a threat to
 the political system, while others believe it is just an
 insignificant expression of anger - without political weight or
 serious repercussions. ... The people who have gathered at
 Athens' main square reject the entire structure of the system:
 the parties, trade unions, media and institutions. They are
 making the point that they won't vote for the [socialist ruling
 party] Pasok, or the [liberal-conservative opposition party] Nea
 Dimokratia, nor for the communist KKE party or the radical left
 coalition Syriza. This is why the parties are not taking a
 positive view of the demonstrators." (02/06/2011) +++
 http://www.ethnos.gr/article.asp?catid=22792&amp;subid=2&amp;pubid=63111062


 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19

 --
 Marko Papic
 Senior Analyst
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 + 1-512-905-3091 (C)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
 www.stratfor.com
 @marko_papic
</description>
    <date>2011-06-03 15:50:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2011-03-05 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1813919_re-eurasia-athens-indignants-threaten-political-system-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ben.preisler@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1814492</id>
    <title>SRM UPDATE - BULGARIA - 081013
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1814492_srm-update-bulgaria-081013-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>srmupdate@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/129/129036_BULGARIA - Country Writeup - 081013.doc</path><size>37376</size><md5></md5><sha1>1c04aef19aa6dd9a93df059b133a190f12f8f20b</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1814928</id>
    <title>Re: Former Spanish PM Azner
</title>
    <description>   Yes, awesome hair.

   Also, I don't think he is ideological or necessarily hardline. I would
   argue that about half of all Spaniards definitely agree with him. The
   problem with Spain is that half of the country is worried about external
   threats coming over from North Africa and the other half thinks that the
   biggest threat is Madrid.

   On 11/16/10 4:26 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     Wow, Senor presidente is hardcore.. Way more extreme than even the
     Israeli officials I've heard speak. He honestly believes that all
     terrorists are the same and that nothing short of total war can defeat
     them. He is adamantly against any kind of negotiation with terrorists
     and criticizes France, Germany and others heavily in this regard. He
     attributes French and German "weakness" on counterterrorism to their
     larger Muslim populations. He said OBL's statement on retaking Andaluz
     is all he heard and the Germans and French just didn't get it. He says
     poverty has zero connection to terrorism and that developmental aid
     policies are useless. On ETA, he said the ceasefires are just time
     buying measures, nothing more. In Catalonia he says the regional govt
     encourages Muslim immigration from Pakistan, Algeria, etc because they
     can more easily linguistically integrate them as opposed to
     Spanish-speaking immigrants. This is also where the most radical imams
     are in the country. He also said ETA has at least 20 camps in Venezuela
     and ggat farc and eta work with each other in training l, weapons, etc.

     Overall, he's very ideological and hardline. Good reminder of the
     personal role in poltics (though he also paid for that and is embarassed
     by his loss)

     Also, great hair.

     Sent from my iPhone

   --

   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

   Marko Papic

   Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

   STRATFOR

   700 Lavaca Street - 900

   Austin, Texas

   78701 USA

   P: + 1-512-744-4094

   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-17 00:31:32</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1814928_re-former-spanish-pm-azner-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1815209</id>
    <title>Re: Former Spanish PM Azner
</title>
    <description>   Haha, I'm glad you noticed those gorgeous locks as well
   Aznar could have been exaggerating the ETA in VZ stuff, but who knows

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Nov 16, 2010, at 6:35 PM, Reginald Thompson
   &lt;reginald.thompson@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

     At least 20 camps? Pretty impressive. That's more than I've seen in OS,
     where so far all they've been focusing on is the Guasdalito camp where
     Cubillas was allegedly at, but it's quite possible all those former
     etarras are spread out all over the place. I would he's a lot more open
     about heaping criticisms on Chavez since I heard him speak at Trinity
     back in 2004, where he referred to him as "an interesting man." My
     brother has a picture of himself with Aznar at that event. Every time I
     look at it I really do think, it's always his hair that I notice.....

     -----------------
     Reginald Thompson

     Cell: (011) 504 8990-7741

     OSINT
     Stratfor

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Tuesday, November 16, 2010 5:26:21 PM
     Subject: Former Spanish PM Azner

     Wow, SeA+-or presidente is hardcore.. Way more extreme than even the  
     Israeli officials I've heard speak. He honestly believes that all  
     terrorists are the same and that nothing short of total war can defeat  
     them. He is adamantly against any kind of negotiation with terrorists  
     and criticizes France, Germany and others heavily in this regard. He  
     attributes French and German "weakness" on counterterrorism to their  
     larger Muslim populations. He said OBL's statement on retaking Andaluz  
     is all he heard and the Germans and French just didn't get it. He says  
     poverty has zero connection to terrorism and that developmental aid  
     policies are useless. On ETA, he said the ceasefires are just time  
     buying measures, nothing more. In Catalonia he says the regional govt  
     encourages Muslim immigration from Pakistan, Algeria, etc because they  
     can more easily linguistically integrate them as opposed to Spanish-
     speaking immigrants. This is also where the most radical imams are in  
     the country. He also said ETA has at least 20 camps in Venezuela and  
     ggat farc and eta work with each other in training l, weapons, etc.

     Overall, he's very ideological and hardline. Good reminder of the  
     personal role in poltics (though he also paid for that and is  
     embarassed by his loss)

     Also, great hair.

     Sent from my iPhone
</description>
    <date>2010-11-17 00:44:52</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1815209_re-former-spanish-pm-azner-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1816463</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - (for Peter) Surkov
</title>
    <description>   Wow... kick ass.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Lauren Goodrich" &lt;goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Peter Zeihan" &lt;zeihan@stratfor.com&gt;, "Lauren Goodrich"
   &lt;goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;, "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;, "Reva
   Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, November 11, 2008 12:32:45 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: INSIGHT - (for Peter) Surkov

   from godfather:

   Vladislav Yurievich knows that he can not lead Russia. That is not what he
   is trying to do. When all of his reforms are complete, he sees the head of
   United Russia as the second highest if not the equally as high as the
   president. The way he explained his plan to myself and a few others last
   week was that Stalin held two titles: Leader of the Soviet Union and
   General Secretary of the Communist Party. Both titles were the most
   powerful positions in the USSR. If Vladislav Yuievich can not hold one
   (which he can not), then he will hold the other. If he is a**testing the
   watersa** as you call it, then he has not spoken to me about it.

   my reply: But I thought Surkov wanted to stay out of the spotlight.

   from godfather:

   Yes and no. He is still ambitious. He is still controlling. He still feels
   that he knows best on how to run this country. Too many people trying to
   guide this country at the moment. Taking the actual reins is a way to
   ensure that he is taking the lead. That is why Stalin held all these
   offices and did not parse the positions out or trust others in those
   positions.

   my reply: It always comes back to the Stalin complex with you people!
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   Stratfor Junior Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
   AIM: mpapicstratfor
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1816463_re-insight-for-peter-surkov-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>zeihan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
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      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1817450</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2010-11-22 17:50:16</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1817450_re-discussion-germany-ct-the-story-behind-germany-s-terror.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1817468</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2010-11-22 17:58:26</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1817468_re-discussion-germany-ct-the-story-behind-germany-s-terror.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1818224</id>
    <title>Re: Insight - Election
</title>
    <description>   which polls... the ones showing Obama's lead is 10 or the AP poll showing
   it is 3 points?

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, October 23, 2008 10:32:37 AM GMT -05:00 Columbia
   Subject: Insight - Election

   ABC News source advises Obama campaign has used their monies to buy up
   any/all available TV time ad space, therefore, the GOP could not run new
   ads if they wanted to, due to the Dems buying up the airtime.
    
   ABC also advised they are not sure the polls are accurate. 
   _______________________________________________ Analysts mailing list LIST
   ADDRESS: analysts@stratfor.com LIST INFO:
   https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts LIST ARCHIVE:
   https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts

   --
   Marko Papic

   Stratfor Junior Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
   AIM: mpapicstratfor
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1818224_re-insight-election-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1818838</id>
    <title>FOR EDIT - CAT 3 - RUSSIA/SERBIA: ICJ Opinion and Russia's Win-Win
 Scenario
</title>
    <description>   On July 22nd at 15:00 local time in The Hague the UN International Court
   of Justice (ICJ) will present its advisory opinion on the legality of
   Kosovo's February 2008 unilateral declaration of independence (UDI) from
   Serbia. (LINK:
   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/serbia_kosovo_declares_independence) The
   opinion will not be legally binding -- it is an advisory opinion requested
   by the General Assembly of the UN at the behest of Belgrade--  but will in
   essence determine whether according to international law Kosovo's
   declaration of independence of Kosovo was legal.

   Russia, Serbia's main ally on the Kosovo matter, has stated that it hopes
   the ICJ ruling will force new talks between Serbs and Kosovars. Speaking
   on July 15, Russia's Ambassador to the UN Vitaly Churkin said that Russia
   continues to oppose independence of Kosovo and supports Belgrade's line
   that Kosovo is a sovereign part of Serbia. However, regardless of the ICJ
   opinion, the circumstances surrounding Kosovo's de fact independence
   remain unchanged and will not be altered by the ruling of the UN court.
   Kosovo is still a de facto Western protectorate with explicit security
   guarantees from NATO and Serbia lacks the military capacity to change the
   status quo -- or the desire to try to do so in light of its efforts to
   become an EU member state.

   Regardless of the fact that the status quo is not expected to change,
   Moscow stands to benefit no matter what the outcome of the ICJ
   deliberations.

   KOSOVO AND GEORGIA: Intertwined Crises

   Kosovo's UDI came 9 years after the NATO's 1999 war against then
   Yugoslavia forced Belgrade to relinquish its physical control over the
   province. The stated reasons for NATO's military campaign in 1999 were
   atrocities committed by Yugoslav military and paramilitary forces against
   the Albanian population of Kosovo. After a long list of wars fought for
   the purpose of expanding Belgrade's influence in the Balkans, the West
   wanted to eliminate Serbia - and its leader Slobodan Milosevic -- as a
   rival in the region for good.

   But the underlying geopolitical context was also NATO's evolution from a
   regional security grouping with no mandate to act outside of its
   membership's immediate defense to an organization with a mandate to keep
   order in Europe, and potentially (and ultimatelly eventually) beyond. The
   NATO actions in Kosovo had no UN Security Council approval and were
   undertaken despite strong Russian (and Chinese) opposition. The precedent
   was set for the U.S. and its allies to act without addressing interests of
   other fellow UNSC permanent members (as the U.S. would later repeat in the
   run up to the 2003 Iraq invasion).

   For Russia, NATO's actions in Kosovo were untenable. Since Russia is not
   part of NATO - and was in fact the very reason the Alliance existed in the
   first place, to defend Western Europe against Soviet invasion -- it
   realized that Kosovo established an extraordinary precedent. The Western
   Alliance acted as the judge, jury and executioner in a matter of European
   security. What more, it did so against a stated Moscow ally, with dubious
   evidence and reasoning. But the West did not stop there, 1999 was followed
   by NATO expansion into former Soviet sphere in Eastern Europe and the
   defeat of a pro-Kremlin Ukrainian government. Moscow stopped counting the
   number of red lines crossed.

   In this context, the 2008 Kosovo UDI was just another in a line of
   decisions on European security taken by the West in which Moscow's
   protestations were ignored. Russia therefore formulated a response to the
   West.   (LINK:
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/georgia_and_kosovo_single_intertwined_crisis)

   On February 15, 2008 - two days before the Kosovo UDI - Russian foreign
   minister Sergei Lavrov met with the Presidents of Georgian breakaway
   republics South Ossetia and Abkhazia. After the Moscow meeting the Russian
   foreign ministry released a statement stating "The declaration of
   sovereignty by Kosovo and its recognition will doubtlessly be taken into
   account in [Russia's] relations with Abkhazia and South Ossetia." The West
   did not heed the warning -- doubting Russia's resolve to respond -- and
   Russia used a crisis in August 2008 in Georgia that allowed it to nearly
   perfectly parallel West's actions against Serbia. It used supposed
   Georgian atrocities against South Ossetians as the reason for a military
   intervention that led to Moscow-supported independence of the two
   breakaway republics.

   RUSSIA AND THE ICJ OPINION

   Today Moscow stands to benefit -- at least rhetorically -- no matter what
   opinion the ICJ supports. A ruling that the UDI was legal also legitimizes
   Russia's support for the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. While
   the West has made the legal argument that the Kosovo case is unique and
   sets no precedent, the non-Western opinion on the matter (with very few
   exceptions) is that it does. In theory it also opens the possibility that
   more countries will recognize the two republics as Moscow would have a
   case that Kosovo and the two Georgian territories are not different.

   However, Moscow does not need South Ossetia and Abkhazia to gain
   international recognition for its control of the two provinces to pay
   dividends. Moscow already controls the two provinces economically,
   politically and militarily and can use them to pressure Georgia - still a
   U.S. ally - if need be. Therefore, if the ICJ rules that the UDI was
   illegal, Moscow will not fret much about the legal implications. Instead,
   it will be able to show that its support for Belgrade has from the
   beginning been justified and that the West, led by the U.S., broke
   international law by encouraging Kosovo to declare independence
   unilaterally and without recourse to the UN Security Council. Moscow will
   use the ICJ opinion in that case to show that it has been a supporter of
   international law and sanctity of sovereignty.

   Kosovo was for Moscow a redline issue in 2008 because it set a precedent
   that allowed the West to intervene militarily and redraw European borders
   without bothering to ask Russia for its opinion. Russia's 2008 war against
   Georgia was the response that Moscow used to counter West's perceived
   belligerence.  The ICJ opinion - whichever way it goes - is just icing on
   the cake.

   --

   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

   Marko Papic

   Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

   STRATFOR

   700 Lavaca Street - 900

   Austin, Texas

   78701 USA

   P: + 1-512-744-4094

   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --

   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

   Marko Papic

   Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

   STRATFOR

   700 Lavaca Street - 900

   Austin, Texas

   78701 USA

   P: + 1-512-744-4094

   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-07-19 21:17:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-18 22:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1818838_for-edit-cat-3-russia-serbia-icj-opinion-and-russia-s-win.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1819117</id>
    <title>Re: DIARY THREAD...
</title>
    <description>   Many on the left in France are trying to say the same thing... He's not
   really black, but half-black... Since a black President in the U.S. would
   mean that the Americans got one before the "uber liberal" French got
   one... How will they ever dismiss America as a bastion of racism while
   sipping on a late at the Place de la Concorde cafes again? It throws them
   off completely... Expect heads to blow up once they realize the irony in
   that.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, November 3, 2008 3:50:27 PM GMT -05:00 Columbia
   Subject: RE: DIARY THREAD...

   Marko, Am shocked.  Are you saying the Euros may be pissed because he's
   black?  Thought he wasn't? 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Monday, November 03, 2008 2:44 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: DIARY THREAD...
   "Old Europe" will love Obama's charm and ability to wow the crowds... for
   like the first 2 months... Eventually, they'll become disenchanted by the
   fact that he is a U.S. President... they'll get REALLY pissed when they
   realize that like all U.S. Presidents he still thinks that he is better
   than them. They'll get really REALLY pissed when they finally realize that
   a black dude is the U.S. President and thus more powerful then them. That
   last one will really irk them just because at the end of the day, no
   matter how much more Obama seeks their opinion than McCain, they're still
   European and he is still the leader of the free world. Once they realize
   that they can't patronize him, they'll get real dissapointed. Expect a
   flood of anti Obama op-eds hitting the high brow European press around
   like February March.

   Nonetheless, I completely agree that they still want him as a President
   right now. Everyone from UK (easier to be allies with Obama than another 4
   years of being the Republicans' bitch), France, Germany and of course
   Spain (oh the sugar portraits). Italy is probably the least pro-Obama just
   because all Italians are incredibly racist (unless you're a Somalian
   selling them fake gucci purses) and because there is a good portion of
   Italians gung ho about Republicans and Bush.

   New Europe wants McCain, except for a few places like Serbia who don't
   really care since they know they're screwed either way.

   I would venture that Turkey and India are also pro-McCain. The Republicans
   have been good to India so far and Turkey, despite the war in Iraq, has
   had strong support from the Bush administration on a number of fronts.
   Kamran, Reva, what do you think?

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Lauren Goodrich" &lt;goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, November 3, 2008 2:46:37 PM GMT -05:00 Columbia
   Subject: Re: DIARY THREAD...

   Russia sees Obama not making a huge confrontation with it... that is why
   they are rooting for Obama.
   Moscow keeps harping on how McCain would officially kick them out of G8,
   but Obama wouldn't.
   Moscow doesn't think Obama stands firmly behind moves in Georgia or
   Ukraine, moreover could be unsure of pushing Russia too far over missile
   defense.
   Russia also knows that under Obama, the Frenchies and Nazis (I mean
   Germans) will have to be consulted on major foreign moves... this is
   something Moscow thinks they can manipulate... esp since Russia has so
   many levers with the Europeans unlike with the Americans.
   Soooo... if Obama does win, Russia thinks it has more time and ability to
   push its master plan and return to its place as a great power... that
   timeframe is cut if McCain wins.

   "Old Europe" is pinning their hopes on Obama. The French and Germans are
   seen as fundamental partners to an Obama presidency. Paris and Berlin
   assume Washington would listen to them on foreign situations if Obama won
   instead of being pushed into policies it does not want. This changes
   things with big topics like Russia, NATO expansion, etc are on the table.
   This also ensure complete and utter deadlock on all major Eurasian and
   NATO issues.

   "New Europe" on the other hand is rooting for McCain. Poland especially is
   freaked out that Obama will let nmd fall through, esp after his remarks
   that he is not so sure about it. They have heard McCain rail against
   Russia... nothing from Obama on that.

   Reva Bhalla wrote:

     expectations of countries around the world? will their perceptions
     ultimately matter?
      
     bolivia and venezuela and iran have all been raving over the past week
     about how they can't wait for an obama victory so they can start
     transforming their relations with the US

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Lauren Goodrich
     Sent: Monday, November 03, 2008 1:20 PM
     To: Analyst List
     Subject: DIARY THREAD...
     most likely should do something on the elections since they're
     tomorrow...
     how should it be hit?
     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     Stratfor
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

       ------------------------------------------------------------------

 _______________________________________________
 Analysts mailing list

 LIST ADDRESS:
 analysts@stratfor.com
 LIST INFO:
 https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts
 LIST ARCHIVE:
 https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
   _______________________________________________ Analysts mailing list LIST
   ADDRESS: analysts@stratfor.com LIST INFO:
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   https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts

   --
   Marko Papic

   Stratfor Junior Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
   AIM: mpapicstratfor

   _______________________________________________ Analysts mailing list LIST
   ADDRESS: analysts@stratfor.com LIST INFO:
   https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts LIST ARCHIVE:
   https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts

   --
   Marko Papic

   Stratfor Junior Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
   AIM: mpapicstratfor
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-23 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1819117_re-diary-thread-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1824461</id>
    <title>Re: anybody have questions for former Spanish PM Aznar
</title>
    <description>   he is impeccably dressed. the most beautiful hair... so silky and shiny! i
   might ask him what shampoo he uses
   On Nov 16, 2010, at 3:41 PM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     Como se dice "Movember" en espanol?

     &lt;moz-screenshot-68.png&gt;

     On 11/16/10 3:33 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       Uh, how about a party for stratfor in his (or one of his friends')
       mediterranean villa?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Michael Wilson &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
       Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
       Date: Tue, 16 Nov 2010 15:32:32 -0600
       To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
       ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
       Subject: Re: anybody have questions for former Spanish PM Aznar
       can i crash on his couch?

       On 11/16/10 3:26 PM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

         can you just tell him "good call on blaming ETA" for me?

         On 11/16/10 3:18 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

           he's teaching our class today

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-16 22:44:36</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1824461_re-anybody-have-questions-for-former-spanish-pm-aznar-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1826523</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - TURKEY/ TAK, PKK relations
</title>
    <description>   Tried different sources, bu the main one who is the CNN corespondent in
   Istanbul told me he is in Athens now, watching/filming police clearing a
   bomb there. So asked me to shoot him an email.
   CODE: 
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Iraq
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Kurdish chief editor, well connected to KRG and the
   PKK
   PUBLICATION: Background/Analysis
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: C
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Yerevan
   The source says its hard to say that there is connection between PKK and
   TAK, because TAK has been not just defiant of Turkey, but the PKK and
   have worked. working to undermine talks between PKK (Ocalan) and Turkish
   government.  The source says, for sure, the elements of TAK are not in
   Qandil, but they left in the mid 0f 2004 when they had difference views
   with the main stream PKK about the form of struggle.  
   He also said that PKK leaders are not happy with what TAK are doing,
   especially when they dont make distinction between civilian and military
   and PKK leaders do believe that targeting civilians will not develop the
   Kurdish case in Turkey, but further alienate the outside sympathizers and
   give more pretext to military to assert itself. The source even suspects
   some kind of connection between military and TAK people, but said that
   this is a theory, but given what TAK is doing in this critical
   stage, parallels with what military and the deep state forces want. 
   The source says, TAK are within the Turkish cities and mostly in Istanbul
   and Western Turkey, even they dont have that much presene in South East
   where the Kurds are. 
   The source also said that so far not much is known about the nature of
   the organization, programs, but noted that they consider Ocalan as the
   real leader of theirs.
</description>
    <date>2010-11-04 14:51:27</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-15 20:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1826523_insight-turkey-tak-pkk-relations-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>colibasanu@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1827113</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat
</title>
    <description>   From a small amount of research, I actually think they do a pretty good
   job.  Both French and German capabilities are very much overlooked.  Thank
   James Bond and Jack Bauer. 

   are you the analysis boss today?
   On 11/22/10 10:58 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

     In the more long-term, I think an analysis of the German intelligence
     agencies would be good too. They have been pretty decimated by the Cold
     War and by all the problems associated with running an intelligence
     agency in a post-Gestapo country. If Germany is ever going to become a
     world power again, however, they would need to overcome these deamons as
     well. That is sort of the last straw for Germany, the one that is going
     to be most sensitive to overcome. But perhaps this case may illustrate
     how they are already overcoming these issues.

     On 11/22/10 10:50 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       Main problem is that Der Spiegel is just that good, they've at least
       touched on most of what I would want to say about it.  The main thing
       here is how the politics of a terror threat/alert coincide with the
       reality of the threat itself. 

       We saw that Germany was fairly relaxed bout the earlier threat in
       Europe released by the US.  I'm not sure if that was the same as the
       info that the FBI passed over about this shia group, Saif (I don't
       know anything about them).  But something changed, as we noted last
       week in their interpretation.  That seems to go down to this virtual
       walk-in.  The one thing I was left confused about is whether BKA had
       ever been in contact with this source before.  It sounds like he cold
       called them.  It's common knowledge that walk-ins, rather than
       recruits, are nearly always the best sources.  But at the same time,
       they are very suspicious as double agents.  If this was a US source
       they would be freaking the fuck out after having Al-Balawi turn on
       them.  The germans seem to have cooler heads, but they will be working
       24/7 to verify the source (let me make another plug for John Lecarre's
       A Most Wanted Man here, most of his career was in Germany). 

       They've clearly got enough corroborating information that they
       consider this a real threat.  But politically they are faced with the
       universal 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' alert problem.  If
       the Interior ministry doesn't say something, they will be liable if an
       attack occurs.  Look at the constant press over information on the
       warning intelligence for Mumbai.  As we've said before, simply issuing
       the warning may help to deter the attackers. 

       The real important bit here, is that it seems the germans have fairly
       good intelligence.  While this attack is still not happening tomorrow,
       they have a lot of details about what might be in the works, rather
       than a single-source intercept that indicates some vague threat.  It
       seems they've increased security pretty well at the Bundestag, and
       want to add to the presence at any possible target.  This is where we
       seem them scrambling, and where their intelligence holes are. 

       The task now for the germans is to verify this source.  Maybe even
       pick him up and put him on ice somewhere (Fred/Stick?), not in GErmany
       but in Pakistan/Afghanistan.  That will require some cooperation with
       either/both the Americans and Pakistanis.  They also need to verify
       all the bio information they have on these 4-6 guys trying to get into
       germany and watch travelers very carefully.  The germans seem to be
       very good at surveilling these threats within Germany, so their best
       luck may come when one of the guys overseas contacts a local already
       under surveillance. 

       At minimum, this could be a pretty interesting tearline this week. 
       Both the walk-in issues and the CIA/FBI liaison conflicts that I
       havne't gotten into here. 
       On 11/22/10 10:34 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

         Any thoughts on where you guys are thinking of going with this?

         Der Spiegel article is indeed interesting.

         On 11/22/10 9:28 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           Great report from Der Spiegel (thanks Mikey).  I suggest anyone
           interested to read the whole thing.  They ask the right questions,
           and while not as much detail as I hoped, give us a much better
           understanding on the threat in Germany. 

           The BKA (germany's FBI) must be extremely busy verifying the
           details of this virtual walk-in.  It obviously caused the germans
           to shit their pants.  But the real questions are buried in the
           article---how real was this plot, how real is the source, is the
           source just trying to get back to the land of brezeln and bier?
           Trying to double-cross them somehow?

           Also note the tip off from the FBI (cue fred), not the usual CIA
           liaison with BND. 

           For Eurasia, there's a lot in here on the internal politics of the
           interior minister position, and the relation between state and
           federal government. 

           On 11/22/10 8:55 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

             -------- Original Message --------

              Subject: [OS] GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror      
                       Threat                                                 
                 Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 08:38:21 -0600                        
                 From: Graham Smith &lt;graham.smith@stratfor.com&gt;               
             Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                          
                   To: os@stratfor.com                                        

              11/22/2010 11:38 AM
             Fears of a Mumbai Redux
             The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat

             http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,730377,00.html
             By Matthias Bartsch, Yassin Musharbash and Holger Stark

             Germany is currently in a state of high alert. Security
             officials are warning that they have concrete information
             pointing to a possible terror attack on the federal parliament
             building in Berlin, a massively popular tourist attraction. The
             days of Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere's reserved stances
             in dealing with such warnings appear to be over.

             The call came from abroad, and the man speaking hurriedly on the
             other end of the line sounded as if he feared for his life. He
             wanted out, he told the officers of the German Federal Criminal
             Police Office (BKA) -- out of the terrorist scene. He wanted to
             come back to Germany, back to his family. Then he asked if
             German officials could help him.

             Right now, they're trying to do just that. The BKA is pursuing
             the case under the codename "Nova." The apparently remorseful
             man could be an important possible whistleblower from a
             dangerous region of the globe. In fact, he is also the most
             recent reason why German Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere
             put the entire country in a state of fright on Wednesday.

             During a hastily called press conference that day, de Maiziere
             stated that Germany faced the threat of terrorist attacks that
             might be launched against the country at some point in November.
             As he put it, Germany is "presently dealing with a new
             situation."
             Just two days earlier, the source had called for the third time
             in just a short period and provided more information. He told
             officials that a small group of terrorists wanted to conduct a
             raid on the Reichstag building in Berlin, which houses the
             federal parliament, and that that was only one of the targets
             included in their attack plans.

             Germany on High Alert

             Since then, Germany has been in a state of high alert. The
             Reichstag is surrounded with barricades and its popular cupola
             tourist attraction temporarily closed to visitors. Police armed
             with submachine guns are patrolling major railway stations and
             airports. And vacations have been called off for officials at
             the country's security agencies. Wherever they have cause for
             doing so, the authorities are secretly monitoring
             communications, conducting surveillance operations and launching
             undercover investigations. At the moment, investigators seem to
             be at a loss; their modus operandi: "We'll prod the shrubs and
             see if we can flush out any birds."

             "There is cause for worry, but no cause for hysteria," de
             Maiziere assured his listeners. But while he has never been much
             of an agitator, his colleagues at the state level have described
             the situation in much more drastic terms. Uwe Schu:nemann, for
             example, who has been the interior minister of the northwestern
             state of Lower Saxony since 2003, stated that he had "never
             experienced a heightened security situation like this one." And
             Berlin Senator for the Interior Ehrhart Ko:rting, whose position
             is tantamount to that of a government minister in the
             city-state, has already even gone so far as to call on the
             inhabitants of the German capital city to report
             suspicious-looking individuals of Arab origin to the police. "If
             you suddenly see three somewhat strange-looking men who are new
             to your neighborhood, who hide their faces and who only speak
             Arabic," Ko:rting said, "you should report them to the
             authorities."

             Under heightened pressure, officials in Germany's 16 federal
             states are now checking to see when and where major events are
             scheduled to take place this coming week within their
             boundaries. And nothing suggested as a possible target is being
             discounted, no matter how unlikely. For example, officials in
             Rhineland-Palatinate warned the state's interior minister, Karl
             Peter Burch, that there was always a lot going on at IKEA stores
             on Saturdays.[WTF]

             Serenity, Scaremongering and Strategy

             Since last week, German politicians at both the state and
             federal levels have once again had to figure out how they will
             handle themselves when making warnings about terrorist attacks.
             They have had to come up with a language that can simultaneously
             convey both an alert and a sense of calm.

             This is no easy task. For one thing, this isn't the first time
             this has happened. In September 2009, for example, right before
             federal elections were held, there were concrete threats that
             resulted in a heightened security situation. But, in the end,
             nothing happened. This time around, people are wondering whether
             they are on the precipice of an emergency or whether these are
             once again empty threats.

             Still, one thing is certain: For the time being, Germany has
             become a different country -- more nervous, more anxious, more
             agitated. And Germany's domestic security policies are being put
             to the test.

             When Interior Minister de Maiziere assumed his office in October
             2009 in conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel's government, he
             aimed to cool down the heated sense of alarm regularly fanned
             out by his predecessors. What's more, the man who had served as
             Merkel's chief of staff in Chancellery until being moved to the
             role of interior minister in her new government, was given the
             task of nurturing a more relaxed relationship between her party,
             the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and its new coalition
             partner, the business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP). In
             particular, it was his job to not draw out the long-standing
             conflict over domestic security policies with the Justice
             Ministry, which has been led since the 2009 election by Sabine
             Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, a member of the FDP. Indeed, Merkel
             feared that the quarrelsome FDP might try to capitalize on the
             issue to win over more voters, so she assigned de Maiziere to
             prevent that from happening.

             In fact, the plan was to repeat the same strategy that the CDU
             and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU),
             had used when they were in the so-called "grand coalition" with
             the center-left Social Democratic Party, between 2005 and 2009.
             At the time, they made a point of undermining the SPD by
             championing what had traditionally been the latter party's
             issues.

             A Game-Changer

             But now the game plan has changed. This November will
             drastically alter de Maiziere's understanding of his role in
             office. If he tries to return things to their previous state of
             calm, he's going to have a very tough time. In fact, it's much
             more likely that he will be a completely different interior
             minister.

             For a while now, de Maiziere's softer stance has prompted
             opposition by politicians on the right involved with domestic
             security issues. But they are now calling louder than ever for a
             tougher course to be followed. Merkel is also adjusting to the
             new situation and is reportedly happy with the way de Maiziere
             handled himself last week. Likewise, no one seems to have voiced
             any criticism last Thursday evening during a meeting of the
             Coalition Committee, a regular gathering of the parties that are
             part of the government.

             The almost complete lack of protest has a lot to do with where
             the alarming information is coming from. In fact, information
             regarding the supposedly imminent attacks has come from two
             independent sources. Shortly before receiving the telephone call
             about the planned attacks, BKA officials had received a cable
             from their American counterparts at the FBI, America's federal
             police force, warning of possible attacks.

             Still, what truth is there in these "security-related" pieces of
             information coming from both domestic and foreign sources? And,
             given all the discrepancies in the warning messages, just how
             much do they deserve to be trusted? Indeed, even among security
             officials themselves, there is some doubt about how legitimate
             these statements are -- and about just how acute the danger
             threatening Germany really is.

             An Attack Modelled after Mumbai[plot details in this section]
             What the caller reported was undeniably alarming. According to
             him, al-Qaida and associated groups based in Pakistan were
             making joint preparations for an attack in Germany. One idea was
             to remotely detonate a bomb using a mobile phone. Another called
             for a small group of terrorists to storm the Reichstag with guns
             blazing, take hostages and end everything in one calamitous
             bloodbath. Indeed, BKA officials learned that the latter plan
             had been modeled on the storming of luxury hotels in Mumbai, the
             Indian capital, almost exactly two years ago, in a massacre that
             left 175 people dead.

             According to the caller, the plan called for the terrorists to
             procure the submachine guns, automatic rifles, explosives and
             whatever else they would need to storm Germany's parliament
             building in the Balkans. He said that two men had already
             traveled to Germany six to eight weeks earlier, adding that one
             had the nom de guerre of "Abu Mohammed" and that the other one
             was a German of Turkish origin. Both apparently had roots in the
             Greater Berlin metropolitan area, were currently unemployed and
             living off of welfare payments and had immersed themselves in
             the anonymity provided by a major city -- until the time should
             come for their activation.

             Likewise, there were allegedly four other volunteers --
             including a German, a Turk, a North African and another jihadist
             of unknown identity -- in the training camps run by al-Qaida and
             related groups waiting for the signal to travel to Germany. And,
             according to the telephone source, al-Qaida's plan was to attack
             in February or March.
             The only question now relates to just how credible the caller's
             statements are. He is an insider who joined up with armed groups
             several months ago and has earned a reputation as a fanatic
             fighter.
             But could it be that he is only trying to tell German officials
             the juiciest things possible in order to raise his own market
             value and thereby prompt them to extract him from the terror
             scene? Or could it be that al-Qaida is even planning a second
             spectacular coup like the one in December 2009, when the
             Americans allowed a supposedly top-level turncoat onto an
             American military base without any sort of pat-down, who went on
             to detonate his explosive vest and blow seven CIA officials to
             bits?

             A Strange Message

             A clear picture has yet to emerge. And one reason for this is
             also the fact that it was only two weeks ago that the FBI first
             decided to share information about another possible attack with
             German officials.

             In this case, even the way contact was made was unusual. Under
             normal circumstances, liaisons from the CIA station in Germany
             are the ones to communicate American warnings to their German
             counterparts. But, this time around, it was an apparently
             particularly anxious FBI that chose to directly notify the BKA.
             The FBI told the Germans about an obscure Indian group called
             "Saif," or "sword." Despite being a Shiite group, it had
             allegedly made a pact with al-Qaida, a Sunni organization, and
             sent five of its men to the Pakistani province of Waziristan for
             training. According to the FBI, two volunteers -- who were
             already equipped with visas allowing them to travel freely
             within the 25 European countries belonging to the Schengen zone
             -- were supposedly already en route to Germany and would enter
             the United Arab Emirates on Monday, Nov. 22. There, they would
             allegedly be provided with new travel documents before traveling
             on to Germany. One of the men is supposedly named "Khan," which
             is about as common in that part of the world as "Smith" is in
             English-speaking countries. And no firm conclusion had been made
             about their nationalities.

             The FBI agents even named the presumed masterminds behind the
             operation. A certain Mushtaq Altaf Bin-Khadri, who is in charge
             of finances and training for "Saif," allegedly dispatched the
             terrorist squad. But the FBI was not in a position to comment on
             the targets of the two men in Germany.

             One name came up time and again in the communique, and one that
             pricked the Germans' ears: Dawood Ibrahim. The 54-year-old arms
             trader is "India's most-wanted man." The US government has
             listed him as a "global terrorist" and persuaded the United
             Nations to place his name on a list of supporters of terror.
             Ibrahim is rumored to be the head of D-Company, a criminal
             syndicate named after himself, and is believed to be in charge
             of smuggling the suspected terrorists into Germany.

             Both the FBI and the BKA are attaching a lot of importance to
             the information in the FBI communique. But the intelligence
             services of the two countries -- the CIA in the United States
             and the BND and Office for the Protection of the Constitution in
             Germany, the country's foreign and domestic intelligence
             agencies, respectively -- point to internal contradictions as
             reasons for their skepticism. As they see it, for example, it is
             highly unlikely that a Shiite group would team up with Sunni
             terrorists, especially since a good part of al-Qaida propaganda
             vilifies Shiites. Other reasons for doubt include the facts that
             none of the intelligence agencies was previously familiar with
             an organization called "Saif," that there have been no
             previously recorded threats against Germany by Indian
             extremists, and that the whole scenario seems rather
             implausible.

             On the other hand, the FBI information is uncommonly concrete.
             In addition to the names of the suspects, it also provides
             information about the exact day on which they are supposed to
             arrive in the United Arab Emirates. Moreover, Ibrahim is
             believed to be one of the men behind the terror attacks in
             Mumbai. If he really is involved, that alone would be reason
             enough for worry.

             Abnormal Circumstances

             Under normal circumstances, a message of this kind from the
             United States would no doubt be cause for serious-minded
             scrutiny, but it would not be a cause for alarm. For example,
             the BKA would go through all recent visa applications, and
             federal police officers would take a closer look at all the
             people entering Germany from Arab states. And the intelligence
             services would make the rounds to see if any of its partners had
             any helpful information on the matter.

             Indeed, under normal circumstances, there are always a lot of
             these communiques, most of which turn out to be false alarms.
             But these are no normal circumstances. Germany is in a state of
             emergency. Other countries, such as the United States, employ a
             system of official warning levels based on color codes that
             change -- from yellow to orange, for example -- when the danger
             level is thought to increase. But, in Germany, the interior
             minister is the barometer: He consults with experts -- and then
             it is he who must call the shots.

             For the minister, a situation like this presents a dilemma. If
             he remains silent and something happens, he's a failure. If he
             makes loud warning and nothing happens, he's just a
             rabble-rouser trying to push through controversial tougher
             security laws. And, of course, the public never thanks you if
             everyday life continues in a normal, peaceful way.

             Absolute Security Remains a Pipe Dream

             When de Maiziere became Germany's interior minister, he had
             planned to lead the ministry in a level-headed way. For example,
             he prefers to use phrases such as "internal calm" rather than
             "internal security." And it was only six weeks ago that he
             uttered the sentence: "There's no cause for alarm." But, since
             then, the chorus of warning voices has only ballooned in size.

             This change in course is the combined result of everything that
             happened beforehand. It might very well turn out that the
             alleged Indian terror squad stays home and that the raid on the
             Reichstag never happens. But what will remain is a well-founded
             supposition that there is a critical mass of terrorists in the
             border region between Afghanistan and Pakistan that is thinking
             about launching attacks in Europe -- and certainly in Germany,
             as well.

             Raw Nerves

             Given such circumstances, there is a major sense of alarm among
             German officials. Last Thursday, just a day after de Maiziere's
             shocking press conference, the BKA issued a press release "in
             connection with the current high-risk situation." It reported
             that a piece of suspicious luggage had been discovered a day
             earlier in Windhoek, the capital of Namibia, before being loaded
             onto a plane bound for Germany. The laptop bag contained
             batteries, wires, a detonator and a clock -- in other words, all
             the ingredients you need for a potential airborne catastrophe.

             It sounded as if another terror plot had been foiled. Had there
             been a plan to blow up Air Berlin Flight 7377 en route to
             Munich? And had the authorities, yet again, discovered an
             explosive device at the last minute? In the end, all the worry
             was unfounded. As it turned out, the piece of luggage was a test
             device built by a company that designs "real test" suitcases to
             be used to test security measures. It remains unclear who
             checked the bag in. But the fact that the BKA was so quick to go
             into alarm mode -- and publicly so -- has been a communications
             debacle.

             Of course, these days, nobody wants to be the one that wasn't
             sufficiently circumspect, the one who took too long to speak up.
             No one wants a replay of situations like the one from the
             beginning of November, when de Maiziere didn't know for hours
             whether the package that had arrived at the Chancellery
             contained actual explosives or was just a false alarm. Now, the
             threshold for sounding the alarm is already much lower.

             Bonded by Fear

             Of course, you can never be too sure. Over the last 12 months, a
             series of attacks concocted in the Afghan-Pakistani border
             region have been foiled in the West. For example, in May, a car
             bomb set in New York's Times Square by a man with ties to the
             Pakistani Taliban failed to properly detonate. In Copenhagen,
             al-Qaida had made plans to storm the offices of the
             Jyllands-Posten newspaper as revenge for its 2005 publishing of
             caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad. In October 2009, David
             Headley, an American citizen with Pakistani roots, was arrested
             after having already visited the newspaper's offices in order to
             scout them out before the planned attack. Other targets
             reportedly included the subway systems of New York City and
             Washington.

             On the other hand, absolute security is a pipe dream. For
             example, British authorities had even conducted rehearsals for
             how to respond to possible attacks. But, even so, when attacks
             claiming 56 lives (including those of four attackers) did strike
             London, on July 7, 2005, they were unable to prevent them.
             Likewise, US intelligence services had warned India a number of
             times that terrorists were planning attacks in Mumbai.

             The new situation in Germany has at least had one positive side
             effect: For the time being, the traditionally quarrelsome
             interior ministers from both the state and the federal levels
             have refrained from their usual bickering. Following informal
             talks held last Thursday in Hamburg, Minister Bruch of
             Rhineland-Palatinate noted that he had "never experienced such
             harmony within this group" that has apparently been bonded
             together by their shared fear.

             Translated from the German by Josh Ward

           --

           Sean Noonan

           Tactical Analyst

           Office: +1 512-279-9479

           Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

           Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

           www.stratfor.com

         --

         - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

         Marko Papic

         Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

         STRATFOR

         700 Lavaca Street - 900

         Austin, Texas

         78701 USA

         P: + 1-512-744-4094

         marko.papic@stratfor.com

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

     --

     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

     Marko Papic

     Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

     STRATFOR

     700 Lavaca Street - 900

     Austin, Texas

     78701 USA

     P: + 1-512-744-4094

     marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
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    <files>
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  <doc>
    <id>1834643</id>
    <title>DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat
</title>
    <description></description>
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    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1835035</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat
</title>
    <description>   It is up to you and CT how you approach this. On the short-term, this
   looks like something you can handle without me. If you want to dabble in
   the more long-term view of what is going on here, I would love to help.

   On 11/22/10 10:58 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

     In the more long-term, I think an analysis of the German intelligence
     agencies would be good too. They have been pretty decimated by the Cold
     War and by all the problems associated with running an intelligence
     agency in a post-Gestapo country. If Germany is ever going to become a
     world power again, however, they would need to overcome these deamons as
     well. That is sort of the last straw for Germany, the one that is going
     to be most sensitive to overcome. But perhaps this case may illustrate
     how they are already overcoming these issues.

     On 11/22/10 10:50 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       Main problem is that Der Spiegel is just that good, they've at least
       touched on most of what I would want to say about it.  The main thing
       here is how the politics of a terror threat/alert coincide with the
       reality of the threat itself. 

       We saw that Germany was fairly relaxed bout the earlier threat in
       Europe released by the US.  I'm not sure if that was the same as the
       info that the FBI passed over about this shia group, Saif (I don't
       know anything about them).  But something changed, as we noted last
       week in their interpretation.  That seems to go down to this virtual
       walk-in.  The one thing I was left confused about is whether BKA had
       ever been in contact with this source before.  It sounds like he cold
       called them.  It's common knowledge that walk-ins, rather than
       recruits, are nearly always the best sources.  But at the same time,
       they are very suspicious as double agents.  If this was a US source
       they would be freaking the fuck out after having Al-Balawi turn on
       them.  The germans seem to have cooler heads, but they will be working
       24/7 to verify the source (let me make another plug for John Lecarre's
       A Most Wanted Man here, most of his career was in Germany). 

       They've clearly got enough corroborating information that they
       consider this a real threat.  But politically they are faced with the
       universal 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' alert problem.  If
       the Interior ministry doesn't say something, they will be liable if an
       attack occurs.  Look at the constant press over information on the
       warning intelligence for Mumbai.  As we've said before, simply issuing
       the warning may help to deter the attackers. 

       The real important bit here, is that it seems the germans have fairly
       good intelligence.  While this attack is still not happening tomorrow,
       they have a lot of details about what might be in the works, rather
       than a single-source intercept that indicates some vague threat.  It
       seems they've increased security pretty well at the Bundestag, and
       want to add to the presence at any possible target.  This is where we
       seem them scrambling, and where their intelligence holes are. 

       The task now for the germans is to verify this source.  Maybe even
       pick him up and put him on ice somewhere (Fred/Stick?), not in GErmany
       but in Pakistan/Afghanistan.  That will require some cooperation with
       either/both the Americans and Pakistanis.  They also need to verify
       all the bio information they have on these 4-6 guys trying to get into
       germany and watch travelers very carefully.  The germans seem to be
       very good at surveilling these threats within Germany, so their best
       luck may come when one of the guys overseas contacts a local already
       under surveillance. 

       At minimum, this could be a pretty interesting tearline this week. 
       Both the walk-in issues and the CIA/FBI liaison conflicts that I
       havne't gotten into here. 
       On 11/22/10 10:34 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

         Any thoughts on where you guys are thinking of going with this?

         Der Spiegel article is indeed interesting.

         On 11/22/10 9:28 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           Great report from Der Spiegel (thanks Mikey).  I suggest anyone
           interested to read the whole thing.  They ask the right questions,
           and while not as much detail as I hoped, give us a much better
           understanding on the threat in Germany. 

           The BKA (germany's FBI) must be extremely busy verifying the
           details of this virtual walk-in.  It obviously caused the germans
           to shit their pants.  But the real questions are buried in the
           article---how real was this plot, how real is the source, is the
           source just trying to get back to the land of brezeln and bier?
           Trying to double-cross them somehow?

           Also note the tip off from the FBI (cue fred), not the usual CIA
           liaison with BND. 

           For Eurasia, there's a lot in here on the internal politics of the
           interior minister position, and the relation between state and
           federal government. 

           On 11/22/10 8:55 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

             -------- Original Message --------

              Subject: [OS] GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror      
                       Threat                                                 
                 Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 08:38:21 -0600                        
                 From: Graham Smith &lt;graham.smith@stratfor.com&gt;               
             Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                          
                   To: os@stratfor.com                                        

              11/22/2010 11:38 AM
             Fears of a Mumbai Redux
             The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat

             http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,730377,00.html
             By Matthias Bartsch, Yassin Musharbash and Holger Stark

             Germany is currently in a state of high alert. Security
             officials are warning that they have concrete information
             pointing to a possible terror attack on the federal parliament
             building in Berlin, a massively popular tourist attraction. The
             days of Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere's reserved stances
             in dealing with such warnings appear to be over.

             The call came from abroad, and the man speaking hurriedly on the
             other end of the line sounded as if he feared for his life. He
             wanted out, he told the officers of the German Federal Criminal
             Police Office (BKA) -- out of the terrorist scene. He wanted to
             come back to Germany, back to his family. Then he asked if
             German officials could help him.

             Right now, they're trying to do just that. The BKA is pursuing
             the case under the codename "Nova." The apparently remorseful
             man could be an important possible whistleblower from a
             dangerous region of the globe. In fact, he is also the most
             recent reason why German Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere
             put the entire country in a state of fright on Wednesday.

             During a hastily called press conference that day, de Maiziere
             stated that Germany faced the threat of terrorist attacks that
             might be launched against the country at some point in November.
             As he put it, Germany is "presently dealing with a new
             situation."
             Just two days earlier, the source had called for the third time
             in just a short period and provided more information. He told
             officials that a small group of terrorists wanted to conduct a
             raid on the Reichstag building in Berlin, which houses the
             federal parliament, and that that was only one of the targets
             included in their attack plans.

             Germany on High Alert

             Since then, Germany has been in a state of high alert. The
             Reichstag is surrounded with barricades and its popular cupola
             tourist attraction temporarily closed to visitors. Police armed
             with submachine guns are patrolling major railway stations and
             airports. And vacations have been called off for officials at
             the country's security agencies. Wherever they have cause for
             doing so, the authorities are secretly monitoring
             communications, conducting surveillance operations and launching
             undercover investigations. At the moment, investigators seem to
             be at a loss; their modus operandi: "We'll prod the shrubs and
             see if we can flush out any birds."

             "There is cause for worry, but no cause for hysteria," de
             Maiziere assured his listeners. But while he has never been much
             of an agitator, his colleagues at the state level have described
             the situation in much more drastic terms. Uwe Schu:nemann, for
             example, who has been the interior minister of the northwestern
             state of Lower Saxony since 2003, stated that he had "never
             experienced a heightened security situation like this one." And
             Berlin Senator for the Interior Ehrhart Ko:rting, whose position
             is tantamount to that of a government minister in the
             city-state, has already even gone so far as to call on the
             inhabitants of the German capital city to report
             suspicious-looking individuals of Arab origin to the police. "If
             you suddenly see three somewhat strange-looking men who are new
             to your neighborhood, who hide their faces and who only speak
             Arabic," Ko:rting said, "you should report them to the
             authorities."

             Under heightened pressure, officials in Germany's 16 federal
             states are now checking to see when and where major events are
             scheduled to take place this coming week within their
             boundaries. And nothing suggested as a possible target is being
             discounted, no matter how unlikely. For example, officials in
             Rhineland-Palatinate warned the state's interior minister, Karl
             Peter Burch, that there was always a lot going on at IKEA stores
             on Saturdays.[WTF]

             Serenity, Scaremongering and Strategy

             Since last week, German politicians at both the state and
             federal levels have once again had to figure out how they will
             handle themselves when making warnings about terrorist attacks.
             They have had to come up with a language that can simultaneously
             convey both an alert and a sense of calm.

             This is no easy task. For one thing, this isn't the first time
             this has happened. In September 2009, for example, right before
             federal elections were held, there were concrete threats that
             resulted in a heightened security situation. But, in the end,
             nothing happened. This time around, people are wondering whether
             they are on the precipice of an emergency or whether these are
             once again empty threats.

             Still, one thing is certain: For the time being, Germany has
             become a different country -- more nervous, more anxious, more
             agitated. And Germany's domestic security policies are being put
             to the test.

             When Interior Minister de Maiziere assumed his office in October
             2009 in conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel's government, he
             aimed to cool down the heated sense of alarm regularly fanned
             out by his predecessors. What's more, the man who had served as
             Merkel's chief of staff in Chancellery until being moved to the
             role of interior minister in her new government, was given the
             task of nurturing a more relaxed relationship between her party,
             the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and its new coalition
             partner, the business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP). In
             particular, it was his job to not draw out the long-standing
             conflict over domestic security policies with the Justice
             Ministry, which has been led since the 2009 election by Sabine
             Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, a member of the FDP. Indeed, Merkel
             feared that the quarrelsome FDP might try to capitalize on the
             issue to win over more voters, so she assigned de Maiziere to
             prevent that from happening.

             In fact, the plan was to repeat the same strategy that the CDU
             and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU),
             had used when they were in the so-called "grand coalition" with
             the center-left Social Democratic Party, between 2005 and 2009.
             At the time, they made a point of undermining the SPD by
             championing what had traditionally been the latter party's
             issues.

             A Game-Changer

             But now the game plan has changed. This November will
             drastically alter de Maiziere's understanding of his role in
             office. If he tries to return things to their previous state of
             calm, he's going to have a very tough time. In fact, it's much
             more likely that he will be a completely different interior
             minister.

             For a while now, de Maiziere's softer stance has prompted
             opposition by politicians on the right involved with domestic
             security issues. But they are now calling louder than ever for a
             tougher course to be followed. Merkel is also adjusting to the
             new situation and is reportedly happy with the way de Maiziere
             handled himself last week. Likewise, no one seems to have voiced
             any criticism last Thursday evening during a meeting of the
             Coalition Committee, a regular gathering of the parties that are
             part of the government.

             The almost complete lack of protest has a lot to do with where
             the alarming information is coming from. In fact, information
             regarding the supposedly imminent attacks has come from two
             independent sources. Shortly before receiving the telephone call
             about the planned attacks, BKA officials had received a cable
             from their American counterparts at the FBI, America's federal
             police force, warning of possible attacks.

             Still, what truth is there in these "security-related" pieces of
             information coming from both domestic and foreign sources? And,
             given all the discrepancies in the warning messages, just how
             much do they deserve to be trusted? Indeed, even among security
             officials themselves, there is some doubt about how legitimate
             these statements are -- and about just how acute the danger
             threatening Germany really is.

             An Attack Modelled after Mumbai[plot details in this section]
             What the caller reported was undeniably alarming. According to
             him, al-Qaida and associated groups based in Pakistan were
             making joint preparations for an attack in Germany. One idea was
             to remotely detonate a bomb using a mobile phone. Another called
             for a small group of terrorists to storm the Reichstag with guns
             blazing, take hostages and end everything in one calamitous
             bloodbath. Indeed, BKA officials learned that the latter plan
             had been modeled on the storming of luxury hotels in Mumbai, the
             Indian capital, almost exactly two years ago, in a massacre that
             left 175 people dead.

             According to the caller, the plan called for the terrorists to
             procure the submachine guns, automatic rifles, explosives and
             whatever else they would need to storm Germany's parliament
             building in the Balkans. He said that two men had already
             traveled to Germany six to eight weeks earlier, adding that one
             had the nom de guerre of "Abu Mohammed" and that the other one
             was a German of Turkish origin. Both apparently had roots in the
             Greater Berlin metropolitan area, were currently unemployed and
             living off of welfare payments and had immersed themselves in
             the anonymity provided by a major city -- until the time should
             come for their activation.

             Likewise, there were allegedly four other volunteers --
             including a German, a Turk, a North African and another jihadist
             of unknown identity -- in the training camps run by al-Qaida and
             related groups waiting for the signal to travel to Germany. And,
             according to the telephone source, al-Qaida's plan was to attack
             in February or March.
             The only question now relates to just how credible the caller's
             statements are. He is an insider who joined up with armed groups
             several months ago and has earned a reputation as a fanatic
             fighter.
             But could it be that he is only trying to tell German officials
             the juiciest things possible in order to raise his own market
             value and thereby prompt them to extract him from the terror
             scene? Or could it be that al-Qaida is even planning a second
             spectacular coup like the one in December 2009, when the
             Americans allowed a supposedly top-level turncoat onto an
             American military base without any sort of pat-down, who went on
             to detonate his explosive vest and blow seven CIA officials to
             bits?

             A Strange Message

             A clear picture has yet to emerge. And one reason for this is
             also the fact that it was only two weeks ago that the FBI first
             decided to share information about another possible attack with
             German officials.

             In this case, even the way contact was made was unusual. Under
             normal circumstances, liaisons from the CIA station in Germany
             are the ones to communicate American warnings to their German
             counterparts. But, this time around, it was an apparently
             particularly anxious FBI that chose to directly notify the BKA.
             The FBI told the Germans about an obscure Indian group called
             "Saif," or "sword." Despite being a Shiite group, it had
             allegedly made a pact with al-Qaida, a Sunni organization, and
             sent five of its men to the Pakistani province of Waziristan for
             training. According to the FBI, two volunteers -- who were
             already equipped with visas allowing them to travel freely
             within the 25 European countries belonging to the Schengen zone
             -- were supposedly already en route to Germany and would enter
             the United Arab Emirates on Monday, Nov. 22. There, they would
             allegedly be provided with new travel documents before traveling
             on to Germany. One of the men is supposedly named "Khan," which
             is about as common in that part of the world as "Smith" is in
             English-speaking countries. And no firm conclusion had been made
             about their nationalities.

             The FBI agents even named the presumed masterminds behind the
             operation. A certain Mushtaq Altaf Bin-Khadri, who is in charge
             of finances and training for "Saif," allegedly dispatched the
             terrorist squad. But the FBI was not in a position to comment on
             the targets of the two men in Germany.

             One name came up time and again in the communique, and one that
             pricked the Germans' ears: Dawood Ibrahim. The 54-year-old arms
             trader is "India's most-wanted man." The US government has
             listed him as a "global terrorist" and persuaded the United
             Nations to place his name on a list of supporters of terror.
             Ibrahim is rumored to be the head of D-Company, a criminal
             syndicate named after himself, and is believed to be in charge
             of smuggling the suspected terrorists into Germany.

             Both the FBI and the BKA are attaching a lot of importance to
             the information in the FBI communique. But the intelligence
             services of the two countries -- the CIA in the United States
             and the BND and Office for the Protection of the Constitution in
             Germany, the country's foreign and domestic intelligence
             agencies, respectively -- point to internal contradictions as
             reasons for their skepticism. As they see it, for example, it is
             highly unlikely that a Shiite group would team up with Sunni
             terrorists, especially since a good part of al-Qaida propaganda
             vilifies Shiites. Other reasons for doubt include the facts that
             none of the intelligence agencies was previously familiar with
             an organization called "Saif," that there have been no
             previously recorded threats against Germany by Indian
             extremists, and that the whole scenario seems rather
             implausible.

             On the other hand, the FBI information is uncommonly concrete.
             In addition to the names of the suspects, it also provides
             information about the exact day on which they are supposed to
             arrive in the United Arab Emirates. Moreover, Ibrahim is
             believed to be one of the men behind the terror attacks in
             Mumbai. If he really is involved, that alone would be reason
             enough for worry.

             Abnormal Circumstances

             Under normal circumstances, a message of this kind from the
             United States would no doubt be cause for serious-minded
             scrutiny, but it would not be a cause for alarm. For example,
             the BKA would go through all recent visa applications, and
             federal police officers would take a closer look at all the
             people entering Germany from Arab states. And the intelligence
             services would make the rounds to see if any of its partners had
             any helpful information on the matter.

             Indeed, under normal circumstances, there are always a lot of
             these communiques, most of which turn out to be false alarms.
             But these are no normal circumstances. Germany is in a state of
             emergency. Other countries, such as the United States, employ a
             system of official warning levels based on color codes that
             change -- from yellow to orange, for example -- when the danger
             level is thought to increase. But, in Germany, the interior
             minister is the barometer: He consults with experts -- and then
             it is he who must call the shots.

             For the minister, a situation like this presents a dilemma. If
             he remains silent and something happens, he's a failure. If he
             makes loud warning and nothing happens, he's just a
             rabble-rouser trying to push through controversial tougher
             security laws. And, of course, the public never thanks you if
             everyday life continues in a normal, peaceful way.

             Absolute Security Remains a Pipe Dream

             When de Maiziere became Germany's interior minister, he had
             planned to lead the ministry in a level-headed way. For example,
             he prefers to use phrases such as "internal calm" rather than
             "internal security." And it was only six weeks ago that he
             uttered the sentence: "There's no cause for alarm." But, since
             then, the chorus of warning voices has only ballooned in size.

             This change in course is the combined result of everything that
             happened beforehand. It might very well turn out that the
             alleged Indian terror squad stays home and that the raid on the
             Reichstag never happens. But what will remain is a well-founded
             supposition that there is a critical mass of terrorists in the
             border region between Afghanistan and Pakistan that is thinking
             about launching attacks in Europe -- and certainly in Germany,
             as well.

             Raw Nerves

             Given such circumstances, there is a major sense of alarm among
             German officials. Last Thursday, just a day after de Maiziere's
             shocking press conference, the BKA issued a press release "in
             connection with the current high-risk situation." It reported
             that a piece of suspicious luggage had been discovered a day
             earlier in Windhoek, the capital of Namibia, before being loaded
             onto a plane bound for Germany. The laptop bag contained
             batteries, wires, a detonator and a clock -- in other words, all
             the ingredients you need for a potential airborne catastrophe.

             It sounded as if another terror plot had been foiled. Had there
             been a plan to blow up Air Berlin Flight 7377 en route to
             Munich? And had the authorities, yet again, discovered an
             explosive device at the last minute? In the end, all the worry
             was unfounded. As it turned out, the piece of luggage was a test
             device built by a company that designs "real test" suitcases to
             be used to test security measures. It remains unclear who
             checked the bag in. But the fact that the BKA was so quick to go
             into alarm mode -- and publicly so -- has been a communications
             debacle.

             Of course, these days, nobody wants to be the one that wasn't
             sufficiently circumspect, the one who took too long to speak up.
             No one wants a replay of situations like the one from the
             beginning of November, when de Maiziere didn't know for hours
             whether the package that had arrived at the Chancellery
             contained actual explosives or was just a false alarm. Now, the
             threshold for sounding the alarm is already much lower.

             Bonded by Fear

             Of course, you can never be too sure. Over the last 12 months, a
             series of attacks concocted in the Afghan-Pakistani border
             region have been foiled in the West. For example, in May, a car
             bomb set in New York's Times Square by a man with ties to the
             Pakistani Taliban failed to properly detonate. In Copenhagen,
             al-Qaida had made plans to storm the offices of the
             Jyllands-Posten newspaper as revenge for its 2005 publishing of
             caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad. In October 2009, David
             Headley, an American citizen with Pakistani roots, was arrested
             after having already visited the newspaper's offices in order to
             scout them out before the planned attack. Other targets
             reportedly included the subway systems of New York City and
             Washington.

             On the other hand, absolute security is a pipe dream. For
             example, British authorities had even conducted rehearsals for
             how to respond to possible attacks. But, even so, when attacks
             claiming 56 lives (including those of four attackers) did strike
             London, on July 7, 2005, they were unable to prevent them.
             Likewise, US intelligence services had warned India a number of
             times that terrorists were planning attacks in Mumbai.

             The new situation in Germany has at least had one positive side
             effect: For the time being, the traditionally quarrelsome
             interior ministers from both the state and the federal levels
             have refrained from their usual bickering. Following informal
             talks held last Thursday in Hamburg, Minister Bruch of
             Rhineland-Palatinate noted that he had "never experienced such
             harmony within this group" that has apparently been bonded
             together by their shared fear.

             Translated from the German by Josh Ward

           --

           Sean Noonan

           Tactical Analyst

           Office: +1 512-279-9479

           Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

           Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

           www.stratfor.com

         --

         - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

         Marko Papic

         Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

         STRATFOR

         700 Lavaca Street - 900

         Austin, Texas

         78701 USA

         P: + 1-512-744-4094

         marko.papic@stratfor.com

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

     --

     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

     Marko Papic

     Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

     STRATFOR

     700 Lavaca Street - 900

     Austin, Texas

     78701 USA

     P: + 1-512-744-4094

     marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --

   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

   Marko Papic

   Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

   STRATFOR

   700 Lavaca Street - 900

   Austin, Texas

   78701 USA

   P: + 1-512-744-4094

   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-22 18:00:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1835035_re-discussion-germany-ct-the-story-behind-germany-s-terror.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1839218</id>
    <title>U.S.: Romania Wants Energy Security Cooperation
</title>
    <description>    Stratfor logo                                                             
   U.S.: Romania Wants Energy Security Cooperation                            
                                                                              
    September 30, 2011                                                        
                                                                              
    Romania wants U.S. energy security cooperation, Romanian State Secretary  
    for European Affairs Bogdan Aurescu told a U.S. State Department          
    official Sept. 30, MediaFax reported. Cooperation would include           
    transferring information and technology from the United States to         
    Romania. The talks followed the recent missile defense shield agreement   
    and joint statement on the strategic partnership between Romania and the  
    United States, according to a Romanian Foreign Ministry news release.     
    The officials discussed regional interests, including the Western         
    Balkans and Black Sea. Aurescu welcomed the decision to resume formal     
    5+2 talks on the Transnistrian conflict and emphasized the need for       
    active U.S. involvement.                                                  
    Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                                
    (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
</description>
    <date>2011-09-30 19:27:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 20:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1839218_u-s-romania-wants-energy-security-cooperation-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>noreply@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ann.guidry@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1847330</id>
    <title>Re: Insight - Election ** internal use only - not for pub **
</title>
    <description>   No.

   This election provides me with hours of entertainment.

   I will miss it.

   For the love of Slobo, please have it continue.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;, "Kamran Bokhari"
   &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;, secure@stratfor.com
   Sent: Thursday, October 30, 2008 10:56:48 AM GMT -05:00 Columbia
   Subject: RE: Insight - Election ** internal use only - not for pub **

   the only "angry" person here is the one spewing racist remarks...
    
   for the love of Vishbuddhallah, let this election be over with

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, October 30, 2008 10:50 AM
   To: 'Reva Bhalla'; 'Kamran Bokhari'; secure@stratfor.com
   Subject: RE: Insight - Election ** internal use only - not for pub **
   Angry liberal response.  The thought of loosing your "hope for change" is
   driving the LIbs bonkers.  Welcome to the real world. 
    
   Nobody wants Uncle Sam dipping more into your pockets, if you are paying
   the bills.  Which is why Obama's campaign simply loves students....

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:bhalla@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, October 30, 2008 10:48 AM
   To: 'Kamran Bokhari'; 'Fred Burton'; secure@stratfor.com
   Subject: RE: Insight - Election ** internal use only - not for pub **
   great, let's out him too then

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Kamran Bokhari [mailto:bokhari@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, October 30, 2008 10:44 AM
   To: 'Fred Burton'; secure@stratfor.com
   Subject: RE: Insight - Election ** internal use only - not for pub **

   From what I have heard McCain also has had ties with Rashid Khalidi.
   Apparently, McCain when he was with the IRI gave Khalidia**s group
   research money.

    

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: October-30-08 11:35 AM
   To: secure@stratfor.com
   Subject: Insight - Election ** internal use only - not for pub **

    

   Regarding the LA Times refusing to release the tape of Khalidi and Obama
   (Ayers was there to) I've been told the tape has been "acquired" and will
   be outed. 

    

   The content, with Obama in play (along with Khaldi from the PLO and Bill
   Ayers) trashes Israel and American Jews, "Jesse style." 

    

   Rev Wrights links to Obama will be aired full-bore starting tomorrow in a
   new special ad. 

   --
   Marko Papic

   Stratfor Junior Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
   AIM: mpapicstratfor
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1847330_re-insight-election-internal-use-only-not-for-pub-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1850591</id>
    <title>SYRIA/ISRAEL/PNA/UN - Syria Renews Demand for Ending Israeli
 Systematic Violations in Occupied Golan
</title>
    <description>   Syria Renews Demand for Ending Israeli Systematic Violations in Occupied   
   Golan                                                                      
                                                                              
   Sep 28, 2010                                                               
                                                                              
                                                                              
   http://www.sana.sy/eng/22/2010/09/28/310091.htm                            
   Geneva, (SANA)- Syria on Monday renewed its demand for stopping the        
   Israeli continued violations of human rights against the Palestinians,     
   lifting unjust siege on Gaza Strip and granting the Palestinian people     
   their right to self-determination and establishment of its independent     
   state with Jerusalem as its capital.                                       
                                                                              
   This demand came during Syria's Permanent Representative to the UN Office  
   in Geneva Faisal al-Hamwi's speech, on behalf of the Arab Group, during    
   the discussions of the Human Rights Council on the Israeli violations of   
   human rights in the occupied Palestinian territories and in the occupied   
   Syrian Golan.                                                              
                                                                              
   The Council was briefed on Judge Goldstone report which condemned Israel's 
   rejection of cooperation with his committee.                               
                                                                              
   Al-Hamwi called for condemning Israel for its rejection to cooperate with  
   Goldstone's committee, noting that Israeli indifference and rejection of   
   the Committee's investigations aim at escaping punishment.                 
                                                                              
   He stressed the necessity that the council should not allow the rights of  
   the victims of Gaza massacre to be wasted as were the rights of the        
   victims of Bait Hanoun and other Israeli-perpetrated massacres.            
                                                                              
   The Council sited the human rights violations in the occupied Palestinian  
   territories and in the occupied Syrian Golan. Al-Hamwi enumerated the      
   Israeli violations of human rights in the occupied Palestinian territories 
   and occupied Syrian Golan which included all sides of life.                
                                                                              
   During the Council's general discussions of Chapter VII on the situation   
   of human rights in the occupied Palestinian territories and in the other   
   occupied Arab lands, al-Hamwi said, in Syria's statement to the Council, " 
   Day after day, the Israeli occupation continued its violations of the      
   human rights in the occupied Syrian Golan", pointing out that with the     
   entry of the Syrian prisoners their 26th years in the Israeli jails,       
   Israel continues depriving the citizens of the occupied Syrian Golan of    
   clean water and exploit it to the Israeli settlers interest.               
                                                                              
   The statement called for an examination of the details of this attack and  
   of a number of other attacks against the Syrian citizens in the occupied   
   Golan in a message addressed by Syria's Foreign Minister to President of   
   Human Rights Council in August 31, 2010.                                   
                                                                              
   Al-Hamwi concluded his statement as saying that no matter how the Israeli  
   distortion campaign increased, we and all the countries which believe in   
   the true human rights without double standards, will follow-up the         
   occupation in this council to expose the truth and to release the          
   prisoners and allow our citizens to enjoy their right in visiting their    
   motherland without conditions in addition to the main demand of ending the 
   Israeli occupation of the occupied Syrian Golan.                           
                                                                              
   H. Zain/ Al-Ibrahim                                                        
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1850591_syria-israel-pna-un-syria-renews-demand-for-ending-israeli.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>os@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>basima.sadeq@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1863194</id>
    <title>Meeting with Augusto
</title>
    <description>   Hi Fred,

   Short version of this guy's bio is that he is in charge of Political
   Affairs at the El Paso Consulate-General. That means he outranks Fernando.

   He is very smart. His specialty is the U.S. He was involved in the
   drafting of the Merida Initiative from the Mexican side. Is an academic,
   had a stint at Georgetown I think, but was teaching in some small college
   in Mexico when the government asked him to help out. He is definitely
   CISEN.

   We of course don't know ANYTHING of the above. We just know that he is
   Political Affairs at the Consulate and that he knows Fernando and that he
   had drinks with me in Fernando's apartment until late one night (I sent
   insight about this long time ago).

   By the way, Fernando says that Augusto may have an interesting proposal
   for Stratfor. He is not sure of the details and will let August say it...
   but it could be good for us.

   Also, Fernando will tell you on Thursday if Augusto will want any meetings
   added to the list when he is in Austin between 2-4 March.

   Anything else?

   Cheers,

   Marko

   --
   Marko Papic

   Stratfor Junior Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
   AIM: mpapicstratfor
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-09 05:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1863194_meeting-with-augusto-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>fred.burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1863408</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat
</title>
    <description>   In the more long-term, I think an analysis of the German intelligence
   agencies would be good too. They have been pretty decimated by the Cold
   War and by all the problems associated with running an intelligence agency
   in a post-Gestapo country. If Germany is ever going to become a world
   power again, however, they would need to overcome these deamons as well.
   That is sort of the last straw for Germany, the one that is going to be
   most sensitive to overcome. But perhaps this case may illustrate how they
   are already overcoming these issues.

   On 11/22/10 10:50 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     Main problem is that Der Spiegel is just that good, they've at least
     touched on most of what I would want to say about it.  The main thing
     here is how the politics of a terror threat/alert coincide with the
     reality of the threat itself. 

     We saw that Germany was fairly relaxed bout the earlier threat in Europe
     released by the US.  I'm not sure if that was the same as the info that
     the FBI passed over about this shia group, Saif (I don't know anything
     about them).  But something changed, as we noted last week in their
     interpretation.  That seems to go down to this virtual walk-in.  The one
     thing I was left confused about is whether BKA had ever been in contact
     with this source before.  It sounds like he cold called them.  It's
     common knowledge that walk-ins, rather than recruits, are nearly always
     the best sources.  But at the same time, they are very suspicious as
     double agents.  If this was a US source they would be freaking the fuck
     out after having Al-Balawi turn on them.  The germans seem to have
     cooler heads, but they will be working 24/7 to verify the source (let me
     make another plug for John Lecarre's A Most Wanted Man here, most of his
     career was in Germany). 

     They've clearly got enough corroborating information that they consider
     this a real threat.  But politically they are faced with the universal
     'damned if you do, damned if you don't' alert problem.  If the Interior
     ministry doesn't say something, they will be liable if an attack
     occurs.  Look at the constant press over information on the warning
     intelligence for Mumbai.  As we've said before, simply issuing the
     warning may help to deter the attackers. 

     The real important bit here, is that it seems the germans have fairly
     good intelligence.  While this attack is still not happening tomorrow,
     they have a lot of details about what might be in the works, rather than
     a single-source intercept that indicates some vague threat.  It seems
     they've increased security pretty well at the Bundestag, and want to add
     to the presence at any possible target.  This is where we seem them
     scrambling, and where their intelligence holes are. 

     The task now for the germans is to verify this source.  Maybe even pick
     him up and put him on ice somewhere (Fred/Stick?), not in GErmany but in
     Pakistan/Afghanistan.  That will require some cooperation with
     either/both the Americans and Pakistanis.  They also need to verify all
     the bio information they have on these 4-6 guys trying to get into
     germany and watch travelers very carefully.  The germans seem to be very
     good at surveilling these threats within Germany, so their best luck may
     come when one of the guys overseas contacts a local already under
     surveillance. 

     At minimum, this could be a pretty interesting tearline this week.  Both
     the walk-in issues and the CIA/FBI liaison conflicts that I havne't
     gotten into here. 
     On 11/22/10 10:34 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

       Any thoughts on where you guys are thinking of going with this?

       Der Spiegel article is indeed interesting.

       On 11/22/10 9:28 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         Great report from Der Spiegel (thanks Mikey).  I suggest anyone
         interested to read the whole thing.  They ask the right questions,
         and while not as much detail as I hoped, give us a much better
         understanding on the threat in Germany. 

         The BKA (germany's FBI) must be extremely busy verifying the details
         of this virtual walk-in.  It obviously caused the germans to shit
         their pants.  But the real questions are buried in the article---how
         real was this plot, how real is the source, is the source just
         trying to get back to the land of brezeln and bier? Trying to
         double-cross them somehow?

         Also note the tip off from the FBI (cue fred), not the usual CIA
         liaison with BND. 

         For Eurasia, there's a lot in here on the internal politics of the
         interior minister position, and the relation between state and
         federal government. 

         On 11/22/10 8:55 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

           -------- Original Message --------

            Subject: [OS] GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat 
               Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 08:38:21 -0600                          
               From: Graham Smith &lt;graham.smith@stratfor.com&gt;                 
           Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                            
                 To: os@stratfor.com                                          

            11/22/2010 11:38 AM
           Fears of a Mumbai Redux
           The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat

           http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,730377,00.html
           By Matthias Bartsch, Yassin Musharbash and Holger Stark

           Germany is currently in a state of high alert. Security officials
           are warning that they have concrete information pointing to a
           possible terror attack on the federal parliament building in
           Berlin, a massively popular tourist attraction. The days of
           Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere's reserved stances in dealing
           with such warnings appear to be over.

           The call came from abroad, and the man speaking hurriedly on the
           other end of the line sounded as if he feared for his life. He
           wanted out, he told the officers of the German Federal Criminal
           Police Office (BKA) -- out of the terrorist scene. He wanted to
           come back to Germany, back to his family. Then he asked if German
           officials could help him.

           Right now, they're trying to do just that. The BKA is pursuing the
           case under the codename "Nova." The apparently remorseful man
           could be an important possible whistleblower from a dangerous
           region of the globe. In fact, he is also the most recent reason
           why German Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere put the entire
           country in a state of fright on Wednesday.

           During a hastily called press conference that day, de Maiziere
           stated that Germany faced the threat of terrorist attacks that
           might be launched against the country at some point in November.
           As he put it, Germany is "presently dealing with a new situation."
           Just two days earlier, the source had called for the third time in
           just a short period and provided more information. He told
           officials that a small group of terrorists wanted to conduct a
           raid on the Reichstag building in Berlin, which houses the federal
           parliament, and that that was only one of the targets included in
           their attack plans.

           Germany on High Alert

           Since then, Germany has been in a state of high alert. The
           Reichstag is surrounded with barricades and its popular cupola
           tourist attraction temporarily closed to visitors. Police armed
           with submachine guns are patrolling major railway stations and
           airports. And vacations have been called off for officials at the
           country's security agencies. Wherever they have cause for doing
           so, the authorities are secretly monitoring communications,
           conducting surveillance operations and launching undercover
           investigations. At the moment, investigators seem to be at a loss;
           their modus operandi: "We'll prod the shrubs and see if we can
           flush out any birds."

           "There is cause for worry, but no cause for hysteria," de Maiziere
           assured his listeners. But while he has never been much of an
           agitator, his colleagues at the state level have described the
           situation in much more drastic terms. Uwe Schu:nemann, for
           example, who has been the interior minister of the northwestern
           state of Lower Saxony since 2003, stated that he had "never
           experienced a heightened security situation like this one." And
           Berlin Senator for the Interior Ehrhart Ko:rting, whose position
           is tantamount to that of a government minister in the city-state,
           has already even gone so far as to call on the inhabitants of the
           German capital city to report suspicious-looking individuals of
           Arab origin to the police. "If you suddenly see three somewhat
           strange-looking men who are new to your neighborhood, who hide
           their faces and who only speak Arabic," Ko:rting said, "you should
           report them to the authorities."

           Under heightened pressure, officials in Germany's 16 federal
           states are now checking to see when and where major events are
           scheduled to take place this coming week within their boundaries.
           And nothing suggested as a possible target is being discounted, no
           matter how unlikely. For example, officials in
           Rhineland-Palatinate warned the state's interior minister, Karl
           Peter Burch, that there was always a lot going on at IKEA stores
           on Saturdays.[WTF]

           Serenity, Scaremongering and Strategy

           Since last week, German politicians at both the state and federal
           levels have once again had to figure out how they will handle
           themselves when making warnings about terrorist attacks. They have
           had to come up with a language that can simultaneously convey both
           an alert and a sense of calm.

           This is no easy task. For one thing, this isn't the first time
           this has happened. In September 2009, for example, right before
           federal elections were held, there were concrete threats that
           resulted in a heightened security situation. But, in the end,
           nothing happened. This time around, people are wondering whether
           they are on the precipice of an emergency or whether these are
           once again empty threats.

           Still, one thing is certain: For the time being, Germany has
           become a different country -- more nervous, more anxious, more
           agitated. And Germany's domestic security policies are being put
           to the test.

           When Interior Minister de Maiziere assumed his office in October
           2009 in conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel's government, he
           aimed to cool down the heated sense of alarm regularly fanned out
           by his predecessors. What's more, the man who had served as
           Merkel's chief of staff in Chancellery until being moved to the
           role of interior minister in her new government, was given the
           task of nurturing a more relaxed relationship between her party,
           the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and its new coalition
           partner, the business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP). In
           particular, it was his job to not draw out the long-standing
           conflict over domestic security policies with the Justice
           Ministry, which has been led since the 2009 election by Sabine
           Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, a member of the FDP. Indeed, Merkel
           feared that the quarrelsome FDP might try to capitalize on the
           issue to win over more voters, so she assigned de Maiziere to
           prevent that from happening.

           In fact, the plan was to repeat the same strategy that the CDU and
           its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), had
           used when they were in the so-called "grand coalition" with the
           center-left Social Democratic Party, between 2005 and 2009. At the
           time, they made a point of undermining the SPD by championing what
           had traditionally been the latter party's issues.

           A Game-Changer

           But now the game plan has changed. This November will drastically
           alter de Maiziere's understanding of his role in office. If he
           tries to return things to their previous state of calm, he's going
           to have a very tough time. In fact, it's much more likely that he
           will be a completely different interior minister.

           For a while now, de Maiziere's softer stance has prompted
           opposition by politicians on the right involved with domestic
           security issues. But they are now calling louder than ever for a
           tougher course to be followed. Merkel is also adjusting to the new
           situation and is reportedly happy with the way de Maiziere handled
           himself last week. Likewise, no one seems to have voiced any
           criticism last Thursday evening during a meeting of the Coalition
           Committee, a regular gathering of the parties that are part of the
           government.

           The almost complete lack of protest has a lot to do with where the
           alarming information is coming from. In fact, information
           regarding the supposedly imminent attacks has come from two
           independent sources. Shortly before receiving the telephone call
           about the planned attacks, BKA officials had received a cable from
           their American counterparts at the FBI, America's federal police
           force, warning of possible attacks.

           Still, what truth is there in these "security-related" pieces of
           information coming from both domestic and foreign sources? And,
           given all the discrepancies in the warning messages, just how much
           do they deserve to be trusted? Indeed, even among security
           officials themselves, there is some doubt about how legitimate
           these statements are -- and about just how acute the danger
           threatening Germany really is.

           An Attack Modelled after Mumbai[plot details in this section]
           What the caller reported was undeniably alarming. According to
           him, al-Qaida and associated groups based in Pakistan were making
           joint preparations for an attack in Germany. One idea was to
           remotely detonate a bomb using a mobile phone. Another called for
           a small group of terrorists to storm the Reichstag with guns
           blazing, take hostages and end everything in one calamitous
           bloodbath. Indeed, BKA officials learned that the latter plan had
           been modeled on the storming of luxury hotels in Mumbai, the
           Indian capital, almost exactly two years ago, in a massacre that
           left 175 people dead.

           According to the caller, the plan called for the terrorists to
           procure the submachine guns, automatic rifles, explosives and
           whatever else they would need to storm Germany's parliament
           building in the Balkans. He said that two men had already traveled
           to Germany six to eight weeks earlier, adding that one had the nom
           de guerre of "Abu Mohammed" and that the other one was a German of
           Turkish origin. Both apparently had roots in the Greater Berlin
           metropolitan area, were currently unemployed and living off of
           welfare payments and had immersed themselves in the anonymity
           provided by a major city -- until the time should come for their
           activation.

           Likewise, there were allegedly four other volunteers -- including
           a German, a Turk, a North African and another jihadist of unknown
           identity -- in the training camps run by al-Qaida and related
           groups waiting for the signal to travel to Germany. And, according
           to the telephone source, al-Qaida's plan was to attack in February
           or March.
           The only question now relates to just how credible the caller's
           statements are. He is an insider who joined up with armed groups
           several months ago and has earned a reputation as a fanatic
           fighter.
           But could it be that he is only trying to tell German officials
           the juiciest things possible in order to raise his own market
           value and thereby prompt them to extract him from the terror
           scene? Or could it be that al-Qaida is even planning a second
           spectacular coup like the one in December 2009, when the Americans
           allowed a supposedly top-level turncoat onto an American military
           base without any sort of pat-down, who went on to detonate his
           explosive vest and blow seven CIA officials to bits?

           A Strange Message

           A clear picture has yet to emerge. And one reason for this is also
           the fact that it was only two weeks ago that the FBI first decided
           to share information about another possible attack with German
           officials.

           In this case, even the way contact was made was unusual. Under
           normal circumstances, liaisons from the CIA station in Germany are
           the ones to communicate American warnings to their German
           counterparts. But, this time around, it was an apparently
           particularly anxious FBI that chose to directly notify the BKA.
           The FBI told the Germans about an obscure Indian group called
           "Saif," or "sword." Despite being a Shiite group, it had allegedly
           made a pact with al-Qaida, a Sunni organization, and sent five of
           its men to the Pakistani province of Waziristan for training.
           According to the FBI, two volunteers -- who were already equipped
           with visas allowing them to travel freely within the 25 European
           countries belonging to the Schengen zone -- were supposedly
           already en route to Germany and would enter the United Arab
           Emirates on Monday, Nov. 22. There, they would allegedly be
           provided with new travel documents before traveling on to Germany.
           One of the men is supposedly named "Khan," which is about as
           common in that part of the world as "Smith" is in English-speaking
           countries. And no firm conclusion had been made about their
           nationalities.

           The FBI agents even named the presumed masterminds behind the
           operation. A certain Mushtaq Altaf Bin-Khadri, who is in charge of
           finances and training for "Saif," allegedly dispatched the
           terrorist squad. But the FBI was not in a position to comment on
           the targets of the two men in Germany.

           One name came up time and again in the communique, and one that
           pricked the Germans' ears: Dawood Ibrahim. The 54-year-old arms
           trader is "India's most-wanted man." The US government has listed
           him as a "global terrorist" and persuaded the United Nations to
           place his name on a list of supporters of terror. Ibrahim is
           rumored to be the head of D-Company, a criminal syndicate named
           after himself, and is believed to be in charge of smuggling the
           suspected terrorists into Germany.

           Both the FBI and the BKA are attaching a lot of importance to the
           information in the FBI communique. But the intelligence services
           of the two countries -- the CIA in the United States and the BND
           and Office for the Protection of the Constitution in Germany, the
           country's foreign and domestic intelligence agencies, respectively
           -- point to internal contradictions as reasons for their
           skepticism. As they see it, for example, it is highly unlikely
           that a Shiite group would team up with Sunni terrorists,
           especially since a good part of al-Qaida propaganda vilifies
           Shiites. Other reasons for doubt include the facts that none of
           the intelligence agencies was previously familiar with an
           organization called "Saif," that there have been no previously
           recorded threats against Germany by Indian extremists, and that
           the whole scenario seems rather implausible.

           On the other hand, the FBI information is uncommonly concrete. In
           addition to the names of the suspects, it also provides
           information about the exact day on which they are supposed to
           arrive in the United Arab Emirates. Moreover, Ibrahim is believed
           to be one of the men behind the terror attacks in Mumbai. If he
           really is involved, that alone would be reason enough for worry.

           Abnormal Circumstances

           Under normal circumstances, a message of this kind from the United
           States would no doubt be cause for serious-minded scrutiny, but it
           would not be a cause for alarm. For example, the BKA would go
           through all recent visa applications, and federal police officers
           would take a closer look at all the people entering Germany from
           Arab states. And the intelligence services would make the rounds
           to see if any of its partners had any helpful information on the
           matter.

           Indeed, under normal circumstances, there are always a lot of
           these communiques, most of which turn out to be false alarms. But
           these are no normal circumstances. Germany is in a state of
           emergency. Other countries, such as the United States, employ a
           system of official warning levels based on color codes that change
           -- from yellow to orange, for example -- when the danger level is
           thought to increase. But, in Germany, the interior minister is the
           barometer: He consults with experts -- and then it is he who must
           call the shots.

           For the minister, a situation like this presents a dilemma. If he
           remains silent and something happens, he's a failure. If he makes
           loud warning and nothing happens, he's just a rabble-rouser trying
           to push through controversial tougher security laws. And, of
           course, the public never thanks you if everyday life continues in
           a normal, peaceful way.

           Absolute Security Remains a Pipe Dream

           When de Maiziere became Germany's interior minister, he had
           planned to lead the ministry in a level-headed way. For example,
           he prefers to use phrases such as "internal calm" rather than
           "internal security." And it was only six weeks ago that he uttered
           the sentence: "There's no cause for alarm." But, since then, the
           chorus of warning voices has only ballooned in size.

           This change in course is the combined result of everything that
           happened beforehand. It might very well turn out that the alleged
           Indian terror squad stays home and that the raid on the Reichstag
           never happens. But what will remain is a well-founded supposition
           that there is a critical mass of terrorists in the border region
           between Afghanistan and Pakistan that is thinking about launching
           attacks in Europe -- and certainly in Germany, as well.

           Raw Nerves

           Given such circumstances, there is a major sense of alarm among
           German officials. Last Thursday, just a day after de Maiziere's
           shocking press conference, the BKA issued a press release "in
           connection with the current high-risk situation." It reported that
           a piece of suspicious luggage had been discovered a day earlier in
           Windhoek, the capital of Namibia, before being loaded onto a plane
           bound for Germany. The laptop bag contained batteries, wires, a
           detonator and a clock -- in other words, all the ingredients you
           need for a potential airborne catastrophe.

           It sounded as if another terror plot had been foiled. Had there
           been a plan to blow up Air Berlin Flight 7377 en route to Munich?
           And had the authorities, yet again, discovered an explosive device
           at the last minute? In the end, all the worry was unfounded. As it
           turned out, the piece of luggage was a test device built by a
           company that designs "real test" suitcases to be used to test
           security measures. It remains unclear who checked the bag in. But
           the fact that the BKA was so quick to go into alarm mode -- and
           publicly so -- has been a communications debacle.

           Of course, these days, nobody wants to be the one that wasn't
           sufficiently circumspect, the one who took too long to speak up.
           No one wants a replay of situations like the one from the
           beginning of November, when de Maiziere didn't know for hours
           whether the package that had arrived at the Chancellery contained
           actual explosives or was just a false alarm. Now, the threshold
           for sounding the alarm is already much lower.

           Bonded by Fear

           Of course, you can never be too sure. Over the last 12 months, a
           series of attacks concocted in the Afghan-Pakistani border region
           have been foiled in the West. For example, in May, a car bomb set
           in New York's Times Square by a man with ties to the Pakistani
           Taliban failed to properly detonate. In Copenhagen, al-Qaida had
           made plans to storm the offices of the Jyllands-Posten newspaper
           as revenge for its 2005 publishing of caricatures of the Prophet
           Muhammad. In October 2009, David Headley, an American citizen with
           Pakistani roots, was arrested after having already visited the
           newspaper's offices in order to scout them out before the planned
           attack. Other targets reportedly included the subway systems of
           New York City and Washington.

           On the other hand, absolute security is a pipe dream. For example,
           British authorities had even conducted rehearsals for how to
           respond to possible attacks. But, even so, when attacks claiming
           56 lives (including those of four attackers) did strike London, on
           July 7, 2005, they were unable to prevent them. Likewise, US
           intelligence services had warned India a number of times that
           terrorists were planning attacks in Mumbai.

           The new situation in Germany has at least had one positive side
           effect: For the time being, the traditionally quarrelsome interior
           ministers from both the state and the federal levels have
           refrained from their usual bickering. Following informal talks
           held last Thursday in Hamburg, Minister Bruch of
           Rhineland-Palatinate noted that he had "never experienced such
           harmony within this group" that has apparently been bonded
           together by their shared fear.

           Translated from the German by Josh Ward

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

       --

       - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

       Marko Papic

       Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

       STRATFOR

       700 Lavaca Street - 900

       Austin, Texas

       78701 USA

       P: + 1-512-744-4094

       marko.papic@stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

   --

   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

   Marko Papic

   Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

   STRATFOR

   700 Lavaca Street - 900

   Austin, Texas

   78701 USA

   P: + 1-512-744-4094

   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-22 17:58:26</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1863408_re-discussion-germany-ct-the-story-behind-germany-s-terror.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1863417</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat
</title>
    <description>   I think I am for another 1 hour or so... Rodger is back from his errand so
   will prob pull the plug on me any minute.

   On 11/22/10 11:03 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     From a small amount of research, I actually think they do a pretty good
     job.  Both French and German capabilities are very much overlooked. 
     Thank James Bond and Jack Bauer. 

     are you the analysis boss today?
     On 11/22/10 10:58 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

       In the more long-term, I think an analysis of the German intelligence
       agencies would be good too. They have been pretty decimated by the
       Cold War and by all the problems associated with running an
       intelligence agency in a post-Gestapo country. If Germany is ever
       going to become a world power again, however, they would need to
       overcome these deamons as well. That is sort of the last straw for
       Germany, the one that is going to be most sensitive to overcome. But
       perhaps this case may illustrate how they are already overcoming these
       issues.

       On 11/22/10 10:50 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         Main problem is that Der Spiegel is just that good, they've at least
         touched on most of what I would want to say about it.  The main
         thing here is how the politics of a terror threat/alert coincide
         with the reality of the threat itself. 

         We saw that Germany was fairly relaxed bout the earlier threat in
         Europe released by the US.  I'm not sure if that was the same as the
         info that the FBI passed over about this shia group, Saif (I don't
         know anything about them).  But something changed, as we noted last
         week in their interpretation.  That seems to go down to this virtual
         walk-in.  The one thing I was left confused about is whether BKA had
         ever been in contact with this source before.  It sounds like he
         cold called them.  It's common knowledge that walk-ins, rather than
         recruits, are nearly always the best sources.  But at the same time,
         they are very suspicious as double agents.  If this was a US source
         they would be freaking the fuck out after having Al-Balawi turn on
         them.  The germans seem to have cooler heads, but they will be
         working 24/7 to verify the source (let me make another plug for John
         Lecarre's A Most Wanted Man here, most of his career was in
         Germany). 

         They've clearly got enough corroborating information that they
         consider this a real threat.  But politically they are faced with
         the universal 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' alert
         problem.  If the Interior ministry doesn't say something, they will
         be liable if an attack occurs.  Look at the constant press over
         information on the warning intelligence for Mumbai.  As we've said
         before, simply issuing the warning may help to deter the attackers. 

         The real important bit here, is that it seems the germans have
         fairly good intelligence.  While this attack is still not happening
         tomorrow, they have a lot of details about what might be in the
         works, rather than a single-source intercept that indicates some
         vague threat.  It seems they've increased security pretty well at
         the Bundestag, and want to add to the presence at any possible
         target.  This is where we seem them scrambling, and where their
         intelligence holes are. 

         The task now for the germans is to verify this source.  Maybe even
         pick him up and put him on ice somewhere (Fred/Stick?), not in
         GErmany but in Pakistan/Afghanistan.  That will require some
         cooperation with either/both the Americans and Pakistanis.  They
         also need to verify all the bio information they have on these 4-6
         guys trying to get into germany and watch travelers very carefully. 
         The germans seem to be very good at surveilling these threats within
         Germany, so their best luck may come when one of the guys overseas
         contacts a local already under surveillance. 

         At minimum, this could be a pretty interesting tearline this week. 
         Both the walk-in issues and the CIA/FBI liaison conflicts that I
         havne't gotten into here. 
         On 11/22/10 10:34 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

           Any thoughts on where you guys are thinking of going with this?

           Der Spiegel article is indeed interesting.

           On 11/22/10 9:28 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

             Great report from Der Spiegel (thanks Mikey).  I suggest anyone
             interested to read the whole thing.  They ask the right
             questions, and while not as much detail as I hoped, give us a
             much better understanding on the threat in Germany. 

             The BKA (germany's FBI) must be extremely busy verifying the
             details of this virtual walk-in.  It obviously caused the
             germans to shit their pants.  But the real questions are buried
             in the article---how real was this plot, how real is the source,
             is the source just trying to get back to the land of brezeln and
             bier? Trying to double-cross them somehow?

             Also note the tip off from the FBI (cue fred), not the usual CIA
             liaison with BND. 

             For Eurasia, there's a lot in here on the internal politics of
             the interior minister position, and the relation between state
             and federal government. 

             On 11/22/10 8:55 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

               -------- Original Message --------

                Subject: [OS] GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror    
                         Threat                                               
                   Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 08:38:21 -0600                      
                   From: Graham Smith &lt;graham.smith@stratfor.com&gt;             
               Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                        
                     To: os@stratfor.com                                      

                11/22/2010 11:38 AM
               Fears of a Mumbai Redux
               The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat

               http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,730377,00.html
               By Matthias Bartsch, Yassin Musharbash and Holger Stark

               Germany is currently in a state of high alert. Security
               officials are warning that they have concrete information
               pointing to a possible terror attack on the federal parliament
               building in Berlin, a massively popular tourist attraction.
               The days of Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere's reserved
               stances in dealing with such warnings appear to be over.

               The call came from abroad, and the man speaking hurriedly on
               the other end of the line sounded as if he feared for his
               life. He wanted out, he told the officers of the German
               Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) -- out of the terrorist
               scene. He wanted to come back to Germany, back to his family.
               Then he asked if German officials could help him.

               Right now, they're trying to do just that. The BKA is pursuing
               the case under the codename "Nova." The apparently remorseful
               man could be an important possible whistleblower from a
               dangerous region of the globe. In fact, he is also the most
               recent reason why German Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere
               put the entire country in a state of fright on Wednesday.

               During a hastily called press conference that day, de Maiziere
               stated that Germany faced the threat of terrorist attacks that
               might be launched against the country at some point in
               November. As he put it, Germany is "presently dealing with a
               new situation."
               Just two days earlier, the source had called for the third
               time in just a short period and provided more information. He
               told officials that a small group of terrorists wanted to
               conduct a raid on the Reichstag building in Berlin, which
               houses the federal parliament, and that that was only one of
               the targets included in their attack plans.

               Germany on High Alert

               Since then, Germany has been in a state of high alert. The
               Reichstag is surrounded with barricades and its popular cupola
               tourist attraction temporarily closed to visitors. Police
               armed with submachine guns are patrolling major railway
               stations and airports. And vacations have been called off for
               officials at the country's security agencies. Wherever they
               have cause for doing so, the authorities are secretly
               monitoring communications, conducting surveillance operations
               and launching undercover investigations. At the moment,
               investigators seem to be at a loss; their modus operandi:
               "We'll prod the shrubs and see if we can flush out any birds."

               "There is cause for worry, but no cause for hysteria," de
               Maiziere assured his listeners. But while he has never been
               much of an agitator, his colleagues at the state level have
               described the situation in much more drastic terms. Uwe
               Schu:nemann, for example, who has been the interior minister
               of the northwestern state of Lower Saxony since 2003, stated
               that he had "never experienced a heightened security situation
               like this one." And Berlin Senator for the Interior Ehrhart
               Ko:rting, whose position is tantamount to that of a government
               minister in the city-state, has already even gone so far as to
               call on the inhabitants of the German capital city to report
               suspicious-looking individuals of Arab origin to the police.
               "If you suddenly see three somewhat strange-looking men who
               are new to your neighborhood, who hide their faces and who
               only speak Arabic," Ko:rting said, "you should report them to
               the authorities."

               Under heightened pressure, officials in Germany's 16 federal
               states are now checking to see when and where major events are
               scheduled to take place this coming week within their
               boundaries. And nothing suggested as a possible target is
               being discounted, no matter how unlikely. For example,
               officials in Rhineland-Palatinate warned the state's interior
               minister, Karl Peter Burch, that there was always a lot going
               on at IKEA stores on Saturdays.[WTF]

               Serenity, Scaremongering and Strategy

               Since last week, German politicians at both the state and
               federal levels have once again had to figure out how they will
               handle themselves when making warnings about terrorist
               attacks. They have had to come up with a language that can
               simultaneously convey both an alert and a sense of calm.

               This is no easy task. For one thing, this isn't the first time
               this has happened. In September 2009, for example, right
               before federal elections were held, there were concrete
               threats that resulted in a heightened security situation. But,
               in the end, nothing happened. This time around, people are
               wondering whether they are on the precipice of an emergency or
               whether these are once again empty threats.

               Still, one thing is certain: For the time being, Germany has
               become a different country -- more nervous, more anxious, more
               agitated. And Germany's domestic security policies are being
               put to the test.

               When Interior Minister de Maiziere assumed his office in
               October 2009 in conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel's
               government, he aimed to cool down the heated sense of alarm
               regularly fanned out by his predecessors. What's more, the man
               who had served as Merkel's chief of staff in Chancellery until
               being moved to the role of interior minister in her new
               government, was given the task of nurturing a more relaxed
               relationship between her party, the Christian Democratic Union
               (CDU), and its new coalition partner, the business-friendly
               Free Democratic Party (FDP). In particular, it was his job to
               not draw out the long-standing conflict over domestic security
               policies with the Justice Ministry, which has been led since
               the 2009 election by Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, a
               member of the FDP. Indeed, Merkel feared that the quarrelsome
               FDP might try to capitalize on the issue to win over more
               voters, so she assigned de Maiziere to prevent that from
               happening.

               In fact, the plan was to repeat the same strategy that the CDU
               and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union
               (CSU), had used when they were in the so-called "grand
               coalition" with the center-left Social Democratic Party,
               between 2005 and 2009. At the time, they made a point of
               undermining the SPD by championing what had traditionally been
               the latter party's issues.

               A Game-Changer

               But now the game plan has changed. This November will
               drastically alter de Maiziere's understanding of his role in
               office. If he tries to return things to their previous state
               of calm, he's going to have a very tough time. In fact, it's
               much more likely that he will be a completely different
               interior minister.

               For a while now, de Maiziere's softer stance has prompted
               opposition by politicians on the right involved with domestic
               security issues. But they are now calling louder than ever for
               a tougher course to be followed. Merkel is also adjusting to
               the new situation and is reportedly happy with the way de
               Maiziere handled himself last week. Likewise, no one seems to
               have voiced any criticism last Thursday evening during a
               meeting of the Coalition Committee, a regular gathering of the
               parties that are part of the government.

               The almost complete lack of protest has a lot to do with where
               the alarming information is coming from. In fact, information
               regarding the supposedly imminent attacks has come from two
               independent sources. Shortly before receiving the telephone
               call about the planned attacks, BKA officials had received a
               cable from their American counterparts at the FBI, America's
               federal police force, warning of possible attacks.

               Still, what truth is there in these "security-related" pieces
               of information coming from both domestic and foreign sources?
               And, given all the discrepancies in the warning messages, just
               how much do they deserve to be trusted? Indeed, even among
               security officials themselves, there is some doubt about how
               legitimate these statements are -- and about just how acute
               the danger threatening Germany really is.

               An Attack Modelled after Mumbai[plot details in this section]
               What the caller reported was undeniably alarming. According to
               him, al-Qaida and associated groups based in Pakistan were
               making joint preparations for an attack in Germany. One idea
               was to remotely detonate a bomb using a mobile phone. Another
               called for a small group of terrorists to storm the Reichstag
               with guns blazing, take hostages and end everything in one
               calamitous bloodbath. Indeed, BKA officials learned that the
               latter plan had been modeled on the storming of luxury hotels
               in Mumbai, the Indian capital, almost exactly two years ago,
               in a massacre that left 175 people dead.

               According to the caller, the plan called for the terrorists to
               procure the submachine guns, automatic rifles, explosives and
               whatever else they would need to storm Germany's parliament
               building in the Balkans. He said that two men had already
               traveled to Germany six to eight weeks earlier, adding that
               one had the nom de guerre of "Abu Mohammed" and that the other
               one was a German of Turkish origin. Both apparently had roots
               in the Greater Berlin metropolitan area, were currently
               unemployed and living off of welfare payments and had immersed
               themselves in the anonymity provided by a major city -- until
               the time should come for their activation.

               Likewise, there were allegedly four other volunteers --
               including a German, a Turk, a North African and another
               jihadist of unknown identity -- in the training camps run by
               al-Qaida and related groups waiting for the signal to travel
               to Germany. And, according to the telephone source, al-Qaida's
               plan was to attack in February or March.
               The only question now relates to just how credible the
               caller's statements are. He is an insider who joined up with
               armed groups several months ago and has earned a reputation as
               a fanatic fighter.
               But could it be that he is only trying to tell German
               officials the juiciest things possible in order to raise his
               own market value and thereby prompt them to extract him from
               the terror scene? Or could it be that al-Qaida is even
               planning a second spectacular coup like the one in December
               2009, when the Americans allowed a supposedly top-level
               turncoat onto an American military base without any sort of
               pat-down, who went on to detonate his explosive vest and blow
               seven CIA officials to bits?

               A Strange Message

               A clear picture has yet to emerge. And one reason for this is
               also the fact that it was only two weeks ago that the FBI
               first decided to share information about another possible
               attack with German officials.

               In this case, even the way contact was made was unusual. Under
               normal circumstances, liaisons from the CIA station in Germany
               are the ones to communicate American warnings to their German
               counterparts. But, this time around, it was an apparently
               particularly anxious FBI that chose to directly notify the
               BKA.
               The FBI told the Germans about an obscure Indian group called
               "Saif," or "sword." Despite being a Shiite group, it had
               allegedly made a pact with al-Qaida, a Sunni organization, and
               sent five of its men to the Pakistani province of Waziristan
               for training. According to the FBI, two volunteers -- who were
               already equipped with visas allowing them to travel freely
               within the 25 European countries belonging to the Schengen
               zone -- were supposedly already en route to Germany and would
               enter the United Arab Emirates on Monday, Nov. 22. There, they
               would allegedly be provided with new travel documents before
               traveling on to Germany. One of the men is supposedly named
               "Khan," which is about as common in that part of the world as
               "Smith" is in English-speaking countries. And no firm
               conclusion had been made about their nationalities.

               The FBI agents even named the presumed masterminds behind the
               operation. A certain Mushtaq Altaf Bin-Khadri, who is in
               charge of finances and training for "Saif," allegedly
               dispatched the terrorist squad. But the FBI was not in a
               position to comment on the targets of the two men in Germany.

               One name came up time and again in the communique, and one
               that pricked the Germans' ears: Dawood Ibrahim. The
               54-year-old arms trader is "India's most-wanted man." The US
               government has listed him as a "global terrorist" and
               persuaded the United Nations to place his name on a list of
               supporters of terror. Ibrahim is rumored to be the head of
               D-Company, a criminal syndicate named after himself, and is
               believed to be in charge of smuggling the suspected terrorists
               into Germany.

               Both the FBI and the BKA are attaching a lot of importance to
               the information in the FBI communique. But the intelligence
               services of the two countries -- the CIA in the United States
               and the BND and Office for the Protection of the Constitution
               in Germany, the country's foreign and domestic intelligence
               agencies, respectively -- point to internal contradictions as
               reasons for their skepticism. As they see it, for example, it
               is highly unlikely that a Shiite group would team up with
               Sunni terrorists, especially since a good part of al-Qaida
               propaganda vilifies Shiites. Other reasons for doubt include
               the facts that none of the intelligence agencies was
               previously familiar with an organization called "Saif," that
               there have been no previously recorded threats against Germany
               by Indian extremists, and that the whole scenario seems rather
               implausible.

               On the other hand, the FBI information is uncommonly concrete.
               In addition to the names of the suspects, it also provides
               information about the exact day on which they are supposed to
               arrive in the United Arab Emirates. Moreover, Ibrahim is
               believed to be one of the men behind the terror attacks in
               Mumbai. If he really is involved, that alone would be reason
               enough for worry.

               Abnormal Circumstances

               Under normal circumstances, a message of this kind from the
               United States would no doubt be cause for serious-minded
               scrutiny, but it would not be a cause for alarm. For example,
               the BKA would go through all recent visa applications, and
               federal police officers would take a closer look at all the
               people entering Germany from Arab states. And the intelligence
               services would make the rounds to see if any of its partners
               had any helpful information on the matter.

               Indeed, under normal circumstances, there are always a lot of
               these communiques, most of which turn out to be false alarms.
               But these are no normal circumstances. Germany is in a state
               of emergency. Other countries, such as the United States,
               employ a system of official warning levels based on color
               codes that change -- from yellow to orange, for example --
               when the danger level is thought to increase. But, in Germany,
               the interior minister is the barometer: He consults with
               experts -- and then it is he who must call the shots.

               For the minister, a situation like this presents a dilemma. If
               he remains silent and something happens, he's a failure. If he
               makes loud warning and nothing happens, he's just a
               rabble-rouser trying to push through controversial tougher
               security laws. And, of course, the public never thanks you if
               everyday life continues in a normal, peaceful way.

               Absolute Security Remains a Pipe Dream

               When de Maiziere became Germany's interior minister, he had
               planned to lead the ministry in a level-headed way. For
               example, he prefers to use phrases such as "internal calm"
               rather than "internal security." And it was only six weeks ago
               that he uttered the sentence: "There's no cause for alarm."
               But, since then, the chorus of warning voices has only
               ballooned in size.

               This change in course is the combined result of everything
               that happened beforehand. It might very well turn out that the
               alleged Indian terror squad stays home and that the raid on
               the Reichstag never happens. But what will remain is a
               well-founded supposition that there is a critical mass of
               terrorists in the border region between Afghanistan and
               Pakistan that is thinking about launching attacks in Europe --
               and certainly in Germany, as well.

               Raw Nerves

               Given such circumstances, there is a major sense of alarm
               among German officials. Last Thursday, just a day after de
               Maiziere's shocking press conference, the BKA issued a press
               release "in connection with the current high-risk situation."
               It reported that a piece of suspicious luggage had been
               discovered a day earlier in Windhoek, the capital of Namibia,
               before being loaded onto a plane bound for Germany. The laptop
               bag contained batteries, wires, a detonator and a clock -- in
               other words, all the ingredients you need for a potential
               airborne catastrophe.

               It sounded as if another terror plot had been foiled. Had
               there been a plan to blow up Air Berlin Flight 7377 en route
               to Munich? And had the authorities, yet again, discovered an
               explosive device at the last minute? In the end, all the worry
               was unfounded. As it turned out, the piece of luggage was a
               test device built by a company that designs "real test"
               suitcases to be used to test security measures. It remains
               unclear who checked the bag in. But the fact that the BKA was
               so quick to go into alarm mode -- and publicly so -- has been
               a communications debacle.

               Of course, these days, nobody wants to be the one that wasn't
               sufficiently circumspect, the one who took too long to speak
               up. No one wants a replay of situations like the one from the
               beginning of November, when de Maiziere didn't know for hours
               whether the package that had arrived at the Chancellery
               contained actual explosives or was just a false alarm. Now,
               the threshold for sounding the alarm is already much lower.

               Bonded by Fear

               Of course, you can never be too sure. Over the last 12 months,
               a series of attacks concocted in the Afghan-Pakistani border
               region have been foiled in the West. For example, in May, a
               car bomb set in New York's Times Square by a man with ties to
               the Pakistani Taliban failed to properly detonate. In
               Copenhagen, al-Qaida had made plans to storm the offices of
               the Jyllands-Posten newspaper as revenge for its 2005
               publishing of caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad. In October
               2009, David Headley, an American citizen with Pakistani roots,
               was arrested after having already visited the newspaper's
               offices in order to scout them out before the planned attack.
               Other targets reportedly included the subway systems of New
               York City and Washington.

               On the other hand, absolute security is a pipe dream. For
               example, British authorities had even conducted rehearsals for
               how to respond to possible attacks. But, even so, when attacks
               claiming 56 lives (including those of four attackers) did
               strike London, on July 7, 2005, they were unable to prevent
               them. Likewise, US intelligence services had warned India a
               number of times that terrorists were planning attacks in
               Mumbai.

               The new situation in Germany has at least had one positive
               side effect: For the time being, the traditionally quarrelsome
               interior ministers from both the state and the federal levels
               have refrained from their usual bickering. Following informal
               talks held last Thursday in Hamburg, Minister Bruch of
               Rhineland-Palatinate noted that he had "never experienced such
               harmony within this group" that has apparently been bonded
               together by their shared fear.

               Translated from the German by Josh Ward

             --

             Sean Noonan

             Tactical Analyst

             Office: +1 512-279-9479

             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

             www.stratfor.com

           --

           - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

           Marko Papic

           Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

           STRATFOR

           700 Lavaca Street - 900

           Austin, Texas

           78701 USA

           P: + 1-512-744-4094

           marko.papic@stratfor.com

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

       --

       - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

       Marko Papic

       Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

       STRATFOR

       700 Lavaca Street - 900

       Austin, Texas

       78701 USA

       P: + 1-512-744-4094

       marko.papic@stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

   --

   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

   Marko Papic

   Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

   STRATFOR

   700 Lavaca Street - 900

   Austin, Texas

   78701 USA

   P: + 1-512-744-4094

   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-22 18:04:31</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1863417_re-discussion-germany-ct-the-story-behind-germany-s-terror.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1875297</id>
    <title>G3* - INDIA - 15 dead, 161 hurt in train derailment in India
</title>
    <description>                 15 dead, 161 hurt in train derailment in India

   (AP)
   http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle08.asp?xfile=data/international/2009/February/international_February1050.xml&amp;section=international

   14 February 2009

                                 Print Print Article  E-mail Send to A Friend 

   BHUBNESHWAR, India - At least 15 people were killed and more than 160
   injured when a train derailed in eastern India, a railroad official said
   on Saturday.

   Forty people hospitalized were in serious condition, but their injuries
   were not life threatening, J.P. Mishra, spokesman for the East Coast
   Railway, told The Associated Press.

   The accident occurred Friday night in Orissa state near the town of
   Jajpur, about 65 miles (110 kilometers) north of the city of Bhubneshwar,
   said Mishra.

   The rescue operation was over and authorities were investigating why 16 of
   the carriages went of the tracks, he said. The train was on its way from
   Calcutta to Chennai when it derailed.

   Accidents are common on India's sprawling rail network, which is one of
   the world's largest, with most accidents blamed on poor maintenance.
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-17 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1875297_g3-india-15-dead-161-hurt-in-train-derailment-in-india-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1891085</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] INSIGHT - Mexico - ICE Hit - US706
</title>
    <description>   Here is a recap of insight from Fred's fed LE contacts that we drafted
   this morning. Fred suggests we take out some specifics if we write on it
   for the website though, like specific reference to Subway so we don't get
   his sources in trouble. 

   According to STRATFOR sources with knowledge of the investigation and
   details surrounding the attack, the working theory behind the attack
   against the two ICE agents was that they were the target of a "hit"
   sanctioned by the top ranks of the Los Zetas cartel. Originally it was
   thought that the men were targeted because they were driving in (according
   to sources) a high-profile, fully-armored navy blue Suburban SUV, a valued
   commodity amongst cartel members. 

   While a carjacking may have been the original intent once the vehicle was
   first spotted, according to STRATFOR sources, the two agents stopped for
   lunch at a Subway fast-food restaurant along the route before the
   incident. While the distance between the restaurant and the roadblock
   where the shooting took place is not yet known, it is possible that
   stopping while in route from Mexico City to Monterrey may have led to them
   to be identified as U.S. law enforcement and provided time for Zetas
   associates to put an operation in place to target the two agents at the
   roadblock (we believe a rolling roadblock) along Hwy 57.  This is
   especially possible since according to sources, the vehicle they were
   driving had diplomatic mission license plates. As the agents stopped (or
   were forced/boxed in) at the roadblock (which they thought was that of the
   military), it would be difficult for the gunmen not to have noticed the
   specialized plates indicating the vehicle as that of U.S. federal law
   enforcement.   There is a specific two-letter code issued on license
   plates to federal agents inside Mexico.

   As the ICE agent who survived begins to provide more details, the tactical
   operation and motive of the attack will become clearer. Still, we are left
   with the question of why the gunmen did not kill both men, not leaving any
   witnesses if they did know the two men were U.S. agents. However, this
   insight from well-placed U.S. federal security sources indicates that the
   agents may have been targeted because of their status as U.S. federal
   agents, a possibility which we are continuing to explore.
   On 2/17/11 2:56 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     I'm open to it.

      

     What it the evidence that points us in that direction?

      

      

      

     From: ct-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:ct-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf
     Of Sean Noonan
     Sent: Thursday, February 17, 2011 2:33 PM
     To: CT AOR
     Subject: Re: [CT] INSIGHT - Mexico - ICE Hit - US706

      

     readers and sources seem pretty critical of our point that it was a
     carjacking.  I wouldn't know, but should we reevaluate?

     On 2/17/11 11:30 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

 Its not the federal working theory however.

  

 Scott Stewart wrote:

 That is one of the points I made yesterday..

  

 ------------------------------------------------------------------------

 *From: *"Michael Wilson" &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;

 *To: *"Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;

 *Sent: *Thursday, February 17, 2011 11:19:26 AM

 *Subject: *INSIGHT - Mexico - ICE Hit - US706

  

  

  

 Source Code: US706

 ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR security source

 SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Investigative journalist close to Mexican DTOs

 SOURCE  RELIABILITY:  B

 ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2

 SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:  analysts

 SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

  

  

 Reports from FOX are claiming that the ICE agents were the intended

 targets..... I find it hard to believe that the attack was

 premeditated---the Zetas don't often leave living witnesses...

  

  

  

      

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-02-17 23:17:21</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1891085_re-ct-insight-mexico-ice-hit-us706-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1892900</id>
    <title>Tearline discussion
</title>
    <description>I've got a Fox interview @ 0745 Tuesday, but will be back in the office
by 0830. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Suggest we remain on topic w/the terrorist surveillance challenges as
outlined in the UK w/the after-action report focusing on these topics:

1) The issue faces surveillance teams in western countries and is not
unique to the UK.  Granted the UK may have more jihadis on the loose to
surveil, but the practical (tactical) aspects are consistent from London
to New York to Canberra. 

2) 24x7 surveillance of a terrorist suspect is resource intensive
provided you don't want to alert the suspect. 

3) Surveillance agents (surveillants, watchers) require unique training
and skill sets which is why the UK and US/FBI have special teams
dedicated to the mission.   They can blend quickly, make clothing
changes, cross demographics and use multiple kinds of surveillance
platforms (bikes, cars, vans.) 

4) On routine targets (not terrorist manhunts) the surveillance groups
operate as small teams on the street  -- usually less then 5 personnel 
-- per unit per shift augmented by technology aids (listening devices in
rooms, street cameras, software like TrapWire or bird dog tracklers GPS)
on vehicles).  So, do the math.  5 watchers per shift on day work and
evenings with less resources on midnights, provided the target is
buttoned down.  (4 terrorists under surveillance = 20 personnel) 

5) The tactical details are also inputted into surveillance logs along
with pictures and video.  The field unit does a degree of tactical
analysis which goes back to the case agent. 

6) The challenges of making sense of the surveillance activities can
also present a tactical analysis failure like we had in the UK with the
inability to connect the dots. 





 
</description>
    <date>2011-03-14 16:53:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1892900_tearline-discussion-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>brian.genchur@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>andrew.damon@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1901337</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] Fwd: [OS] CHINA/CSM/CT- Cisco Poised to Help China Keep an
	Eye on Its	Citizens
</title>
    <description>   I'm sitting here with a cisco guy.  What is the trapwire tech?  He's not
   involved with this project but let me know if there are any ques and I'll
   see what he can find out.

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Jul 4, 2011, at 8:55 PM, Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

     Maybe with talk of Trapwire technology and such we can provide some
     insight on this.  The addition of the cameras is not new, I think i had
     it in the bullets sometime earlier this year. 

     -------- Original Message --------

      Subject: [OS] CHINA/CSM/CT- Cisco Poised to Help China Keep an Eye on   
               Its Citizens                                                   
         Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2011 22:52:54 -0500                                
         From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;                         
     Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                  
           To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                  

         * JULY 5, 2011

     Censorship Inc.
     Cisco Poised to Help China Keep an Eye on Its Citizens
     Read more:
     http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304778304576377141077267316.html#ixzz1RCQsajlK
     By LORETTA CHAO in Beijing and DON CLARK in San Francisco
     [CISCO] Getty Images

     Cameras in Beijing's Tiananmen Square. U.S. firms can sell surveillance
     gear in China, but not equipment that is used only for crime control.

     Western companies including Cisco Systems Inc. are poised to help build
     an ambitious new surveillance project in Chinaa**a citywide network of
     as many as 500,000 cameras that officials say will prevent crime but
     that human-rights advocates warn could target political dissent.
     [CISCO_p1]

     The system, being built in the city of Chongqing over the next two to
     three years, is among the largest and most sophisticated
     video-surveillance projects of its kind in China, and perhaps the world.
     Dubbed "Peaceful Chongqing," it is planned to cover a half-million
     intersections, neighborhoods and parks over nearly 400 square miles, an
     area more than 25% larger than New York City.

     The project sheds light on how Western tech companies sell their wares
     in China, the Middle East and other places where there is potential for
     the gear to be used for political purposes and not just safety. The
     products range from Internet-censoring software to sophisticated
     networking gear. China in particular has drawn criticism for treating
     political dissent as a crime and has a track record of using technology
     to suppress it.

     An examination of the Peaceful Chongqing project by The Wall Street
     Journal shows Cisco is expected to supply networking equipment that is
     essential to operating large and complicated surveillance systems,
     according to people familiar with the deal.

     The U.S. has prohibited export of crime-control products to China (for
     instance, fingerprinting equipment) ever since Beijing's deadly 1989
     Tiananmen Square crackdown. But the U.S. restrictions don't prohibit
     sale of technologies such as cameras that can be used in many waysa**to
     tame, say, either traffic jams or democracy marches. This loophole
     troubles some critics. There is no indication that Cisco is selling
     products customized for crime control.
     More

         * Cisco Faces Lawsuits, Criticism Over Past China Activities

     Western companies' pursuit of sales in China underscores a fundamental
     question for businesses and policy makers alike: Should companies be
     held accountable if foreign governments use their products for political
     suppression?

     Cisco was brought in to the Chongqing project by Chinese security
     company Hikvision Digital Technology Co., the project's main contractor,
     Hikvision officials and others say. It is unclear whether Cisco's
     participation has been finalized, although one person familiar with the
     matter says it is close.

     Officials at Cisco, based in San Jose, Calif., declined to discuss its
     possible involvement in detail. A company spokesman stressed that Cisco
     "hasn't sold video cameras or video-surveillance solutions in any of our
     public infrastructure projects in China."

     The company has previously saida**including in a June blog post by
     Cisco's general counsel, Mark Chandlera**that the company strictly
     abides by the Tiananmen export controls and doesn't supply any gear to
     China that is "customized in any way" to facilitate repressive uses.

     View Full Image
     CISCO_jmp
     CISCO_jmp
     CISCO_jmp

     Cisco is the world's biggest maker of networking equipment, which
     includes routing and switching systems that send data between computers
     and connect systems to the Internet. The company has stirred controversy
     in the past for its China dealings.

     The Chongqing project is also attracting interest from other U.S.
     companies, including Alabama software maker Intergraph Corp.
     Hewlett-Packard Co. also expects to bid on part of the project,
     according to a senior H-P executive.

     The people familiar with the matter said H-P may be looking to supply
     servers or storage equipment for Peaceful Chongqing.

     Asked about concerns about political use of the system, Todd Bradley, an
     executive vice president who oversees H-P's China strategy, said in an
     interview last week in China, "We take them at their word as to the
     usage." He added, "It's not my job to really understand what they're
     going to use it for. Our job is to respond to the bid that they've
     made."
     Censorship Inc.

         * Mideast Uses Western Tools to Battle the Skype Rebellion 6/1/2011
         * Iran Vows to Unplug Internet 5/28/2011
         * U.S. Products Help Block Mideast Web 3/28/2011

     Another possible participant in the Chongqing project is Intergraph, a
     Huntsville, Ala., company that made a bid through Cisco to provide
     customized software for the effort, said Bob Scott, head of Intergraph's
     security group. It is unclear if the company, a unit of Sweden's Hexagon
     AB, will ultimately be hired.

     Although sale of surveillance technology to repressive nations is
     permissible, some critics have harsh words for companies that do so.
     "The business community is only hearing what it wants to hear and
     disregarding the rest," said Rep. Frank Wolf, a Virginia Republican who
     co-chairs the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, a nonpartisan rights
     group made up of members of Congress.

     Chongqing, a sprawling metropolis in southwestern China, is one of the
     most populous cities in the nation with an urban population of at least
     12 million. The hillside Yangtze River port, famous for spicy hot-pot
     and often covered in fog, was China's capital from 1938 to 1945. Today,
     it is being developed as a gateway to the country's western hinterland.

     Chongqing has gained prominence the past two years because of its
     Communist Party chief, Bo Xilai, a rising political star who has led a
     controversial crackdown on organized crime that some lawyers have
     criticized for what they say are violations of legal due process.

     View Full Image
     CISCO
     Getty Images

     Chongqing's party chief, Bo Xilai, led a controversial crime crackdown.
     CISCO
     CISCO

     Mr. Bo declined to comment. He is expected to become one of China's top
     leaders next year by being appointed to China's Politburo Standing
     Committee, the nation's top decision-making body.

     Chongqing's government has said it plans to invest more than $800
     million of its own in building the Peaceful Chongqing system. Another
     $1.6 billion is coming from other, unspecified sources, the city has
     said. Hikvision's president, Hu Yangzhong, said in an interview that
     government funds would go toward building the central surveillance
     network and installing a portion of the cameras, while more cameras
     would be installed by owners of residences, office buildings and
     othersa**all of which would be linked to the network.

     Video-surveillance systems can serve many purposes and are routinely
     used for benign purposes by cities world-wide to fight crime and ease
     traffic. Still, civil libertarians raise concerns including in the U.S.
     that the technology can invade privacy and is poorly regulated.

     Human-rights advocates say Chinese police have used surveillance footage
     to identify people in political protests. Jailed Chinese artist-activist
     Ai Weiwei, who was released last month, complained before he was
     apprehended on April 3 that police were using cameras to monitor him.

     Corinna-Barbara Francis, a researcher at Amnesty International, said
     surveillance footage has been used to identify and apprehend peaceful
     protesters in China, including in Xinjiang and Tibet. "In China there's
     ample evidence that they use" video surveillance "to crack down and then
     criminalize activity which should not be criminalized," Ms. Francis
     said.

     The Chongqing government declined to comment, as did China's Ministry of
     Public Security and the State Council Information Office. Chinese
     leaders have long argued that maintaining social stability and economic
     growth takes precedence over political rights.

     Hikvision's president, Mr. Hu, said he believes the project's goal is to
     cut crime, not target political dissidents. "China has a very serious
     public-security problem," he said in an interview last week. He blamed
     an epidemic of robbery and other crimes on the flood of poor migrants
     into China's cities and a growing wealth gap.

     Mr. Hu said Chongqing's new surveillance system will be tied in to an
     information network that Cisco is already building in the city, where
     Cisco has announced a high-profile alliance under a program it calls
     Smart+Connected Communitiesa**an initiative under which Cisco consults
     with governments around the world to use technology to tackle civic
     problems such as transportation, healthcare and education.

     According to the Chongqing government's website, Cisco Chief Executive
     John Chambers told the city's mayor in a meeting last year that he hoped
     the Smart+Connected project could create a "model in Chongqing which can
     be popularized in China."

     Executives at Western companies say they must weigh the possibility that
     technology could be misused against the business risks of missing out on
     a lucrative market. "We do have concerns," said Intergraph's Mr. Scott.
     "On the other hand, we want to do business there," he said, noting that
     the company's software is also used for environmental and other projects
     in China.

     "We're just the technology platform," he said, adding that it is the
     responsibility of the buyers "to meet and adhere to laws and policies"
     of their jurisdictions. Ultimately, Intergraph has "to manage the risk
     against the gain."

     In an April interview with the Journal, Bill Stuntz, general manager of
     Cisco's physical-security business, said Cisco gives careful
     consideration to how its products are used in China and doesn't want
     them to be used for repressive purposes. He declined to discuss specific
     projects in China but noted that sales of security equipment there have
     been expanding rapidly. He said Cisco is providing products that include
     networking equipment and servers along with support for some large
     video-surveillance systems, though not video cameras.

     China has become the fastest growing market for surveillance equipment,
     although it isn't yet the biggest, according to IMS Research, a U.K.
     firm that studies the market. The surveillance markets in the U.S. and
     Europe are growing at single-digit rates while surveillance-related
     revenue in China is growing at 23% a year. Surveillance-equipment sales
     alone, not including networking gear or software, totaled $1.7 billion
     last year.

     Chongqing's government says on its website that its current surveillance
     system is outdated, allowing police to directly tap into just 15,000 of
     the total 300,000 cameras. It wants the new system to be among the
     world's most advanced.

     Mr. Scott of Intergraph says Chongqing wants not only to increase camera
     count, but also to have video managed and delivered to dozens of police
     precincts and other organizations. The project presents challenges "that
     have not really been done anywhere else in the world," he said.

     Mr. Scott said his company spent three years developing software that
     enables multiple agencies to control cameras and also analyzes video
     feeds for unusual situations like fires or the formation of crowds.

     The number of surveillance cameras in Chinese cities including Chongqing
     appears to dwarf that of other cities around the world, though
     comparisons are tough because cities generally don't disclose their
     camera counts.

     A 2008 report by the state-run Xinhua news agency said Beijing had some
     280,000 cameras in its system. By comparison, privacy advocates in the
     U.S., including the American Civil Liberties Union, estimate Chicago has
     10,000 cameras. The New York Civil Liberties Union estimated in 2009
     that there were 8,000 cameras in New York.
     a**Kersten Zhang, Yoli Zhang, Jason Dean and Cari Tuna contributed to
     this article.

     Write to Loretta Chao at loretta.chao@wsj.com and Don Clark at
     don.clark@wsj.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 06:03:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1901337_re-ct-fwd-os-china-csm-ct-cisco-poised-to-help-china-keep-an.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>richmond@core.stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1903064</id>
    <title>Fwd: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
</title>
    <description>   Ryan Sims
   Global Intelligence
   STRATFOR
   T: 512-744-4087
   F: 512-744-0570
   ryan.sims@stratfor.com
   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
     Date: June 16, 2011 1:04:08 PM CDT
     To: STRATFOR &lt;service@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: RE: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
     Kudos*a great explanation for those who don't understand or appreciate
     the efforts that go into a real intel op*as opposed to the Hollywood BS
     everyone seems to expect.
      
     I remind people all the time that we got the courier's name back in '03
     -- and thank goodness didn't take the typical "cuff 'em and drag him in"
     approach many had advocated. We stayed patient and threw real analytical
     support into this one. Took some time -- but the patient oriental
     approach usually pays bigger dividends.  M
      
     From: STRATFOR [mailto:mail@response.stratfor.com] 
     Sent: Thursday, June 16, 2011 11:45 AM
     To: Michael Maness
     Subject: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
      

View on Mobile Phone | Read the online version.                                  

      

     STRATFOR Weekly Intelligence Update                                      
     Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier: Special Edition of Above the        
     Tearline                                                                 
     The weekly Above the Tearline video series is part of our members-only   
     content. We hope you enjoy this exclusive chance to access it free.      
                                                                              
     [IMG]                                                                    
     Watch this exclusive edition of Above the Tearline                       
                                                                              
             Above the Tearline: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier          
                                                                              
                                                                              
                                                                              
     Vice President of Intelligence Fred Burton examines the sophisticated    
     surveillance operation that led to the raid on Osama bin Laden*s safe    
     house in Pakistan. Click here to view.                                   
     Save on annual memberships                                               
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</description>
    <date>2011-06-16 20:08:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1903064_fwd-surveillance-of-bin-laden-s-courier-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>service@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>responses@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1914583</id>
    <title>Re: [TACTICAL] FBI investigation against Gulen
</title>
    <description>   Will find out.

   Stick may be Gulen in drag.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Emre Dogru &lt;emre.dogru@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Tue, 29 Mar 2011 08:23:45 -0500 (CDT)
   To: 'Fred Burton'&lt;fred.burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: FBI investigation against Gulen
   Hey Fred, there are reports that FBI is investigating 120 schools of Gulen
   movement in the US. Gulen is a moderate religious community in Turkey,
   whose leader Fethullah Gulen lives in Pennsylvania, and the movement has
   become recently pretty controversial due to some arrests of journalists
   who were writing books about Gulenist infiltration into police service.
   The report is below. Do you think we can learn the story behind this?
   Thanks.

   http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=american-media-has-discovered-gulen-charity-schools-2011-03-21

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-03-29 15:25:44</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-07 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1914583_re-tactical-fbi-investigation-against-gulen-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1918074</id>
    <title>Dispatch: Mainland China's "Occupy Wall Street" Reaction
</title>
    <description>    Stratfor logo                                                             
   Dispatch: Mainland China's "Occupy Wall Street" Reaction                   
                                                                              
    October 19, 2011 | 2044 GMT                                               
    Click on image below to watch video:                                      
    [IMG]                                                                     
                                                                              
    China Director Jennifer Richmond explains why the "Occupy Wall Street"    
    movement failed to gain traction in mainland China.                       
                                                                              
       Editor*s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition      
       technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete        
       accuracy.                                                              
                                                                              
    Related Links                                                             
      * China Political Memo: Wenzhou Backs Away from the `Wenzhou Model'     
      * The Effects of Chinese Economic Development on Illicit Trade          
      * China Political Memo: Governmental Reforms for Economic Problems?     
                                                                              
    The "Occupy Wall Street" movement has gone global and there have even     
    been attempts to capitalize on this movement in various Chinese cities.   
    The "Occupy China" movement, however, has failed to gain traction on the  
    mainland.                                                                 
                                                                              
    We really didn't expect to see this movement transfer to mainland China;  
    however, given the Jasmine protests earlier this year, there were many    
    who were waiting to see whether or not this movement could be             
    rejuvenated by the global call to action. The global Occupy movement      
    lacks a nucleus or leadership. Despite a common theme of corporate        
    greed, there is very little direction on how to proceed and, under these  
    circumstances, we have seen no contagion effect in mainland China.        
                                                                              
    However, the Tiananmen protests in 1989 also started with very little     
    leadership or direction, and many Chinese activists that I've spoken      
    with feel that all that is needed is a spark to ignite a fire. After      
    all, there are plenty of protests localized daily in China, revolving     
    around issues such as land grabs, the environment and even corruption.    
                                                                              
    The Jasmine Movement provided a spark for organized action in China;      
    however, it quickly fizzled under an aggressive government response. The  
    Occupy China movement hasn't even gotten that far. While it is not        
    unforeseeable for a small movement to gain momentum in China, the         
    problem with both the Jasmine and the Occupy movements are that neither   
    were home-grown.                                                          
                                                                              
    Although the Jasmine movement was spearheaded by Chinese, it was done so  
    from overseas. The Occupy movement had supporters and organizers within   
    China, but the concept was foreign-generated.                             
                                                                              
    Moreover, the Chinese government and media has actually acknowledged the  
    Occupy movement in the U.S. and in the EU, taking the opportunity to      
    point out the failures of Wall Street and capitalism, while at the same   
    time, censoring any indication of an Occupy China movement. Also, many    
    Chinese do not have access to the social Internet sites that have helped  
    to ignite these movements in Western countries, namely Facebook. And      
    those that do, find this information quickly scrubbed off of similar      
    Chinese sites.                                                            
                                                                              
    Ultimately, the Chinese, even those that want change, are wary of         
    foreign influences. Anything emanating from outside of the state will be  
    used by the state to highlight foreign interference. That said the        
    domestic wealth gap and its ensuing tensions could generate a homegrown   
    movement that would threaten Beijing much more so than any Occupy Wall    
    Street movement could muster.                                             
                                                                              
    Click for more videos                                                     
                                                                              
    Give us your thoughts                          Read comments on           
    on this report                                 other reports              
                                                                              
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    (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
</description>
    <date>2011-10-19 23:03:31</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1918074_dispatch-mainland-china-s-occupy-wall-street-reaction-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>noreply@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ryan.abbey@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1918867</id>
    <title>[Fwd: FW: DPS: Anarchists linked to arson at Governor's Mansion (Statesman,
 17 Feb 2011)]
</title>
    <description>From TrapWire:

What better proof does one need as to the importance of focusing on
pre-attack surveillance!

(And since our deployment and training, McCraw and DPS officers have
completely refocused on surveillance detection now. Very good to see.)

-------------------------------------------------------------------

An Austin-based anarchist group whose members were prosecuted for
plotting to bomb the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minn.,
three years ago has been linked to the unsolved June 2008 arson fire
that gutted the Texas Governor's Mansion, officials said Thursday.

Steve McCraw, director of the Texas Department of Public Safety, said
that a white Jeep Cherokee photographed by surveillance cameras at the
mansion four days before the fire has been "connected to people who were
part of that anarchist group." The connection was confirmed about three
months ago, he said.

The Jeep is believed to have been doing surveillance before the fire,
McCraw said at a news conference called to ask for public assistance in
cracking Texas' highest-profile unsolved crime.

Authorities said they have identified three people in the Jeep as
"persons of interest" in the arson case and are seeking information that
could identify a fourth person, the arsonist. They released three videos
and a set of composite sketches — and reiterated the existence of a
$50,000 reward — in the hopes of drawing out new information.

McCraw said at least one of the persons of interest 'has been placed in
downtown Austin' the morning of the mansion fire.

McCraw said the Jeep was located through a search of about 3,000 similar
vehicles licensed in Texas, because its tag number was not readable on
the video. Its owner was then linked to members of the "Austin-based
anarchist group," he said.

The torching of the historic mansion, home to every Texas governor since
1856, has remained a top priority for authorities since June 8, 2008,
when an arsonist started a fire on the porch that quickly gutted the
two-story brick home across from the state Capitol.

The mansion was undergoing a $10 million renovation at the time and was
not occupied. Reconstruction began late last year.

A grainy video taken from a surveillance camera was made public in 2008.
On Thursday, authorities released an enhanced version of that video and
two previously unreleased ones, in addition to sketches of the arsonist
drawn from enhanced video images . The images provide the clearest
picture yet of how the crime occurred.

McCraw and DPS investigators said the Jeep — shown stopped at an
intersection adjacent to the mansion about 2 a.m. on June 4 — is
believed to be linked to the fire. Someone sitting in the back seat can
be seen taking two photos of the house with a flash. McCraw
characterized that as "obviously pre-ops surveillance" but would not
elaborate.

He said one of the men arrested in the Minnesota case has been
identified as a passenger in the Jeep.

All three persons of interest have denied any involvement in the burning
of the mansion, authorities said.

Investigators believe a fourth person is the shadowy figure seen on
video the night of the fire tossing a Molotov cocktail on the mansion's
porch to start the fire, McCraw said.

On a second video made public Thursday, a shadowy figure can be seen
walking up the front brick sidewalk to the mansion after hopping the
front fence. He pauses and appears to light the Molotov cocktail, then
throws it at the front door.

Flames can be seen quickly engulfing the mansion's door and porch, as
the figure runs back down the sidewalk.

Antonio "Tony" Leal, chief of the Texas Rangers that are leading the
investigation of the fire, described the arsonist as about 5 feet 10
inches tall, of medium build, weighing 175 to 180 pounds and wearing
"lumpy" clothing.

McCraw said investigators believe the arsonist "was not in the Jeep."
And though authorities have not confirmed the identity of the arsonist,
they believe he is connected to the people taking photos from the Jeep,
according to McCraw.

McCraw declined to identify any of the "persons of interest," noting
that the investigation is ongoing.

About two years ago, investigators confirmed that they had questioned
some of the members of the group who were arrested in Minnesota, several
of whom were from Austin. But those interrogations yielded no arrests.

Two Austin men accused of building a cache of homemade firebombs were
arrested in St. Paul during the 2008 Republican National Convention.
Authorities said the men intended to use the Molotov cocktails on police
vehicles and perhaps even police officers, but their plot was stopped
with the help of Austin-area activist turned government informant
Brandon Darby.

David Guy McKay, 24 , pleaded guilty to three counts related to illegal
firearms and is serving a four-year sentence in federal prison. Brad
Crowder, 25 , pleaded guilty to aiding and abetting possession of an
unregistered firearm, which is how the law classifies a Molotov
cocktail, and was sentenced to two years in prison. He was released in
May 2010, according to federal records.

Crowder, reached by telephone Thursday, said he had nothing to do with
the mansion fire and has no information about who may be involved.

"It's categorical nonsense," Crowder said. "What happened in Minnesota
\u2026 wasn't connected in any way to the mansion fire."

Crowder said he is living in Austin and attending Austin Community
College. On Wednesday, he said, his federal probation officer called him
to a meeting where he met with Texas Rangers investigators. He said the
interview lasted more than an hour and that he was shown photographs and
surveillance video but was not able to identify anyone in them.

Minnesota defense lawyer Jeffrey DeGree, who represented McKay, said
that his client has also previously denied involvement in the fire.

Scott Crow, a self-described anarchist from Austin who did not travel to
Minnesota for the convention but who knew McKay and Crowder around that
time, said Thursday that Texas Rangers have approached him and at least
one other local activist he knows in recent days. The investigators
offered reward money for information leading to an arrest.

Crow said the investigators interviewed him Thursday at his job.

Crow said he doesn't know anything about the crime and could not
identify anyone in the photos and sketches shown to him by the
investigators. "Those guys are grasping at straws," he said.
</description>
    <date>2011-02-18 16:44:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1918867_-fwd-fw-dps-anarchists-linked-to-arson-at-governor-s-mansion.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1928918</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] [OS] CHINA/CSM - Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in
 fraud probe
</title>
    <description>   Trapwire is software that integrates your security video hardware.

   On 7/5/11 1:22 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

     I agree with Alibaba and had flagged that too.  I didn't see the mention
     of trapwire in the story on Cisco.  Maybe I missed it.  Yes, keep me
     posted on any questions and I'll see what my contact can dig up.

     On 7/4/11 11:18 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       This is also a pretty good CSM topic.  some college kids running a
       scam through Alibaba (chinese ebay), took in a good amount of money. 

       If we had some good 'redism' related incidents, maybe I could write on
       that, but we'd need some very concise points to make. 

       Let me know what you guys think of this and the surveillance camera
       topic.

       Jen, I assume that Trapwire is a competitor to Cisco, but I'm not
       sure.  I don't know if trapwire makes the actual cameras or just does
       the analysis.   I won't have real questions till morning. 

       On 7/2/11 11:00 AM, Kevin Stech wrote:

         Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in fraud probe

         02 July 2011 - 08H10 

         http://www.france24.com/en/20110702-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-fraud-probe

          

         AFP - Police have arrested 36 people in southeast China following an
         investigation into fraud on e-commerce site Alibaba.com and other
         websites that duped buyers out of more than $6 million.

          

         Alizila.com, Alibaba's corporate news website, reported earlier this
         week the suspects were detained in Fujian province's Putian city in
         April. John Spelich, the firm's spokesman, confirmed the report to
         AFP on Saturday.

          

         The people arrested allegedly operated a criminal gang that used
         fake IDs to open more than 100 "Gold Supplier" accounts on
         Alibaba.com. This designation is given to those certified as highly
         trusted suppliers by the firm.

          

         This allowed the suspects to pose as legitimate companies selling to
         overseas businesses that source goods through Alibaba.com. Police
         said the alleged scammers also used other international trading
         websites.

          

         Alibaba.com, based in the eastern city of Hangzhou, has grown into
         one of China's largest Internet companies by matching mainland
         manufacturers and wholesalers with buyers around the world.

          

         But its reputation took a hit in February when the firm announced
         the resignation of chief executive David Wei and head of operations
         Elvis Lee after fraud was uncovered on the site.

          

         Wei and Lee were not involved in the scams but resigned because they
         took responsibility for "systemic breakdowns" that allowed the fraud
         to happen, Alibaba said at the time.

          

         But according to the Alizila report, the fraud was "sometimes
         abetted by Alibaba.com employees." But Spelich said Saturday none of
         the 36 arrested worked at the company.

          

         He added the number of fraud complaints received by the website in
         June was down 70 percent from February after Alibaba toughened
         procedures and other security measures.

          

         The report said Alibaba had refunded $1.9 million to those who lost
         their money to the alleged scammers.

         Click here to find out more!

          

         Kevin Stech

         Director of Research | STRATFOR

         kevin.stech@stratfor.com

         +1 (512) 744-4086

          

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 13:35:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1928918_re-ct-os-china-csm-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-in.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1945332</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] Shahzad used online webcams and live shots to plan Times
 Square bombing
</title>
    <description>   Yes, I agree with that, but the defensive mechanisms (guards, delta
   barriers, time shift, make/model of PTZ's) he/she mentioned are geared
   more for hardened targets (not that places like the Times Square doesn't
   have PTZ's and police walking the beat) not soft targets like Times
   Square, hotels, mass transit systems, etc. 

    

   The failure of Shahzad, as he/she pointed out, was not that he did not do
   his surveillance homework - it was that his device did not work properly
   (if I remember right, he set the wrong time on the bomb). 

    

   Having said that - nothing can compete with seeing the target for
   oneself.  However, individuals with good bomb-making skills could use the
   Internet for surveillance on a soft target without having set foot there. 
   The plan has less chances of coming off than having actually eyes on the
   target, but these Internet views of targets allows terrorists to do a
   great deal of their homework from their apartment, hotel room, etc. 

    

    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Ryan Abbey" &lt;ryan.abbey@stratfor.com&gt;, "CT AOR" &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, October 6, 2010 11:20:46 AM
   Subject: Re: [CT] Shahzad used online webcams and live shots to plan Times
   Square bombing

   Former CIA TrapWire response (PLS DO NOT FORWARD) regarding
   counter-measures to mitigate the threat:

   We get asked this question quite often. Yes, terror groups do make use
   of webcams, Google Earth and the Internet when doing their prep. (Bin
   Laden has even made mention of this himself). So, Shahzad's comments are
   hardly a revelation in the intel community. That said, I can assure you
   no successful terror attack has ever been planned based solely on the
   Internet. Google can't tell me how many guards are at a facility; how
   long a delta-barrier stays up; what time shift change occurs; what
   make/model of PTZs are installed around your building; etc. etc. I have
   to have eyes-on-target to fully understand your vulnerabilities. I guess
   one could make the argument that relying solely on "virtual
   reconnaissance" gives you the results Shahzad had -- failure. (He
   probably should have spent more time on bomb-making webpages rather than
   webcams).

    

   Mumbai is a perfect case in point. The 10 attackers (all peasant farmers
   coerced -- and in at least two cases, sold by their families -- into
   participating) never set foot in Mumbai prior to the operation. Instead,
   they were taken to a safehouse in Pakistan and walked through a series
   of videos, still shots and maps of the planned attack routes and
   targets. The surveillance cell worked more than two years in collecting
   this data, and was able to present such a thorough video montage, that
   the attackers had the entire ingress memorized before they ever got
   there. This was done with handheld video cameras and probing ops around
   the targets -- not the internet.

    

   Ryan Abbey wrote:
   &gt;
   &gt; This could really mess with police using countersurveillance to try
   &gt; and nab terrorists.  If future terrorists do take Shahzad's example
   &gt; and use online Google Street view, webcams, live shots, etc. that
   &gt; means less time that they will actually have to be on the ground doing
   &gt; surveillance of the target and even less opportunities for law
   &gt; enforcement to nab them.
   &gt;
   &gt;  
   &gt;
   &gt;  
   &gt;
   &gt; Times Square bomb plotter sentenced to life in prison
   &gt;
   &gt; Link:
   &gt;
   http://www.cnn.com/2010/CRIME/10/05/new.york.terror.plot/index.html?section=cnn_latest
   &gt;
   &gt;  
   &gt;
   &gt; Excerpt:
   &gt;
   &gt; "According to the memo, Shahzad *used webcams *accessible on the
   &gt; internet "as part of his effort to maximize the deadly effect of his
   &gt; bomb."
   &gt;
   &gt; The memo says Shahzad *found webcams online and studied the real-time
   &gt; video feeds of different areas in Times Square to determine when and
   &gt; where he could inflict the most damage.*
   &gt;
   &gt; Prosecutors said Shahzad "wanted to select the busiest time for
   &gt; pedestrian traffic in Times Square because pedestrians walking on the
   &gt; streets would be easier to kill and to injure than people driving in
   &gt; cars." "
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt; --
   &gt; Ryan Abbey
   &gt; Tactical Intern
   &gt; Stratfor
   &gt; ryan.abbey@stratfor.com
   &gt;

   --
   Ryan Abbey
   Tactical Intern
   Stratfor
   ryan.abbey@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-10-06 17:38:03</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1945332_re-ct-shahzad-used-online-webcams-and-live-shots-to-plan.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1947984</id>
    <title>[CT] Did Mossad kill German politician involved in Iran-Contra
	scandal?
</title>
    <description>       Did Mossad kill German politician involved in Iran-Contra scandal?

   Posted on November 22, 2010 by intelNews| Leave a comment
   Uwe           Barschel

   Uwe Barschel

   By JOSEPH FITSANAKIS  | intelNews.org |
   Accusations of Israeli involvement in the suspicious death of a German
   politician have been revived, following new autopsy evidence revealed by a
   medical examiner. The case involves the death of Christian Democratic
   Union politician Uwe Barschel, who on October 11, 1987, was found dead in
   the bathtub of room 317 of the Beau-Rivage hotel in Geneva, Switzerland.
   His sudden death occurred less than a month after he was forced to resign
   from the post of Governor of West Germany's Schleswig-Holstein state,
   following his involvement in a dirty-tricks campaign against his rival
   Bjo:rn Engholm, of Germany's Social Democratic Party. Swiss authorities,
   based on an initial postmortem that revealed lethal levels of barbiturates
   in Barschel's system, ruled the death a suicide. But now Dr Hans
   Brandenberger, who was one of the toxicological experts that examined
   Barschel, claims that he is possession of new evidence that points to
   murder as the cause of the German politician's death. Speaking on Sunday
   to Germany's quality Welt am Sonntag broadsheet, Dr Brandenberger said
   that computer analysis of the original 1987 autopsy data makes it "next to
   certain that Barschel was injected with [the strong sedative] Noludar
   shortly before his death through the rectum". The toxicologist claims that
   the strong tranquilizer was part of a complex cocktail of drugs that was
   force-fed to the German politician after he was sedated, probably with the
   help of a spiked drink. Dr Brandenberger's allegations have breathed new
   life to claims that Barschel was in fact murdered by Israeli intelligence
   agency Mossad, who targeted him because of his inside knowledge of
   Iran-Contra scandal dealings. Specifically, Barschel is said to have known
   about an alleged transfer of Israeli military aircraft to the Islamic
   Republic of Iran, facilitated under United States oversight through German
   mediators. Following his resignation from his governor post, he had
   threatened to publicize insider accounts of the alleged transfer. During
   the Iran-Contra Scandal (1985-1986), Israel acted as Washington's conduit
   in supplying US-made weapons to Iran and then channeling the profits to
   the Contras paramilitary mercenaries fighting Nicaragua's Sandinista
   government. Incidentally, Israel did so in full knowledge of the fact that
   the Iranian government was at that time the primary military supplier of
   Palestinian militant group Hamas.

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-22 18:01:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-05 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1947984_-ct-did-mossad-kill-german-politician-involved-in-iran.html</permalink>
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    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/125/125556_first-post5.jpg</path><size>8711</size><md5></md5><sha1>f0beab7ff5e00aab3b00ba206049ed223a5efb9c</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1948010</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror
 Threat
</title>
    <description>   Interesting parts I think are facts that balkan criminals were implicated
   in smuggilng weapons and that Dawood Ibrahim was also implicated. Lots of
   shady stuff comes out of the Balkans, so getting weapons to Germany from
   there would be no easy task.

   Also, I'm not sure what role Dawood would play in this scenario. Remember
   Indian officials blamed him for working with naxalites a few months back
   but didn't offer much evidence. He's an all around south asian bogeyman -
   any reference to him sends a clear message that somebody is up to no good.

   On 11/22/2010 1:01 PM, Jaclyn Blumenfeld wrote:

     Here are some of the thoughts and inconsistencies I found - I had
     summarized the der spiegel to pick out the bits I found important and
     added some info from other OS articles in blue.

     -Call from abroad (likely Pakistan) from "Nova" a terrorist wanting to
     surrender and return to his family in Germany
     -now working with German Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) and was
     reason behind threat increase on Wednesday, so far three calls have
     taken place between "Nova" and BKA
     -warned of small group attacking Reichstag on Monday and security has
     since been increased, authorities are secretly monitoring
     communications, conducting surveillance operations and launching
     undercover investigations.
     According to "NOVA":
     -AQ and associate groups (Pakistan's Islamic Jihad Group) planning
     together in Pakistan for attack(s) in Germany.
     -One idea was to remotely detonate a bomb using a mobile phone. Another
     called for a small group of terrorists to storm the Reichstag with guns
     blazing, take hostages and end everything in one calamitous bloodbath.
     -Plan called for the terrorists to procure the submachine guns,
     automatic rifles, explosives and whatever else they would need in the
     Balkans.
     -He said that two men had already traveled to Germany six to eight weeks
     earlier, adding that one had the nom de guerre of "Abu Mohammed" and
     that the other one was a German of Turkish origin
     -Both apparently had roots in the Greater Berlin metropolitan area, were
     currently unemployed and living off of welfare payments and had immersed
     themselves in the anonymity provided by a major city -- until the time
     should come for their activation.
     -Four others involved were waiting to travel to Germany at training
     camps in Pakistan - including a German, a Turk, a North African and
     another jihadist of unknown identity
     -Attack slated for February or March (if German intel had this knowledge
     why would they close the Reichstag today? are they sending a statement
     to AQ and affiliate group that they are aware and ahead of the
     planning?)

     According to FBI (which was recieved shortly before the call from "Nova"
     (there are some inconsistencies between the intelligence)
     - FBI included warnings about the obscure Indian group "Saif" which
     although Shiite had allegedly made pact with AQ and sent five men to
     Pakistan for training - what the connection to the Germany plot not
     specified - the 6 members described in the Reichstag plot were described
     by caller as various nationalities - none Indian)
     -FBI also shared that two members with visas allowing them to travel
     freely in EU schengen zone were already enroute to Germany and would
     enter via UAE on Nov 22  (compared to caller saying that two had already
     entered two weeks prior - time gap - so maybe there are four now in
     Germany unless FBI intel was outdated and the men came earlier - or
     caller was not accurate?)
     -FBI warnings claim the two in Germany were dispatched by Dawood Ibrahim
     Kaskar, an Indian organised crime baron linked to al-Qaeda based out of
     Karachi (this seems out of place - two mentions by the FBI of an Indian
     connection)
     -One of the men is supposedly named "Khan" (versus caller's info he was
     named Abu Muhammed and the second guy was of Turkish descent - Khan is
     not Turkish, Khan and Abu Muhammed could be the same guy though)

     Ben West wrote:

       Europeans have still found a way to blame Americans for warnings in
       the past.

       And yes, something very well could be in the works, but given the fact
       that jihadists constantly want to attack the west, is it really at all
       significant that something is in the works?

       I think we'd seen past plots with travel plans... I'd have to look
       harder to get specifics, but I don't think that's all that novel.

       Agree that the security officials are in a catch-22 situation.

       On 11/22/2010 11:43 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         There is a notable difference here.  And that is the German warning
         issued last week.  It was based on their own intelligence not
         American intelligence--so no blaming americans this time.  Yes, it's
         true that they don't have the capability to attack the Reichstag,
         and theat the attack is not imminent, as I pointed out.  But on the
         other hand, like with cargo parcels, it doesn't mean that something
         is not in the works.  Have we ever seen information this specific
         before on the individuals and their travel plans? 

         This is the conundrum of warning intelligence,  when the warning is
         given (just to policymakers, or to the public), measures are taken
         that prevent it.  It then comes the boy-who-cried-wolf, even if the
         warning was originally accurate. 

         Not to mention, given what happened with the last double agent to
         become public (Khost), it will be interesting to follow this one. 
         On 11/22/10 11:33 AM, Ben West wrote:

           I agree that the spiegel article was good - but this is the kind
           of thing we've seen over and over again in Europe. Source from
           durkastan says that aq is going to target Europe and kill lots of
           people and that attackers are en route. Everyone gets freaked out.
           Nothing significant happens. Europe blames US of scare mongering.

           Certainly islamists have europe in their cross-hairs, but if an
           attack is going to happen, it's not going be preceded by this kind
           of publicity.

           Also, attacking the reichstag? I mean, it's possible to ATTACK it,
           but they've got a pretty heavy security presence there that would
           prevent a hostage situation. I was there a few years ago. The
           public entryway is confined to one doorway with a heavy guard
           presence, metal detectors, x-ray machines, etc. If anything, an
           attack could kill lots of tourists lined up outside, but it would
           take a very serious force to be able to gain entrance to the
           reichstag and an even more well trained force to actually hold
           hostages. This sounds like a pipe-dream to me.

           On 11/22/2010 11:04 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

             thoughts?

             On 11/22/10 11:00 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

               It is up to you and CT how you approach this. On the
               short-term, this looks like something you can handle without
               me. If you want to dabble in the more long-term view of what
               is going on here, I would love to help.

               On 11/22/10 10:58 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

                 In the more long-term, I think an analysis of the German
                 intelligence agencies would be good too. They have been
                 pretty decimated by the Cold War and by all the problems
                 associated with running an intelligence agency in a
                 post-Gestapo country. If Germany is ever going to become a
                 world power again, however, they would need to overcome
                 these deamons as well. That is sort of the last straw for
                 Germany, the one that is going to be most sensitive to
                 overcome. But perhaps this case may illustrate how they are
                 already overcoming these issues.

                 On 11/22/10 10:50 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                   Main problem is that Der Spiegel is just that good,
                   they've at least touched on most of what I would want to
                   say about it.  The main thing here is how the politics of
                   a terror threat/alert coincide with the reality of the
                   threat itself. 

                   We saw that Germany was fairly relaxed bout the earlier
                   threat in Europe released by the US.  I'm not sure if that
                   was the same as the info that the FBI passed over about
                   this shia group, Saif (I don't know anything about them). 
                   But something changed, as we noted last week in their
                   interpretation.  That seems to go down to this virtual
                   walk-in.  The one thing I was left confused about is
                   whether BKA had ever been in contact with this source
                   before.  It sounds like he cold called them.  It's common
                   knowledge that walk-ins, rather than recruits, are nearly
                   always the best sources.  But at the same time, they are
                   very suspicious as double agents.  If this was a US source
                   they would be freaking the fuck out after having Al-Balawi
                   turn on them.  The germans seem to have cooler heads, but
                   they will be working 24/7 to verify the source (let me
                   make another plug for John Lecarre's A Most Wanted Man
                   here, most of his career was in Germany). 

                   They've clearly got enough corroborating information that
                   they consider this a real threat.  But politically they
                   are faced with the universal 'damned if you do, damned if
                   you don't' alert problem.  If the Interior ministry
                   doesn't say something, they will be liable if an attack
                   occurs.  Look at the constant press over information on
                   the warning intelligence for Mumbai.  As we've said
                   before, simply issuing the warning may help to deter the
                   attackers. 

                   The real important bit here, is that it seems the germans
                   have fairly good intelligence.  While this attack is still
                   not happening tomorrow, they have a lot of details about
                   what might be in the works, rather than a single-source
                   intercept that indicates some vague threat.  It seems
                   they've increased security pretty well at the Bundestag,
                   and want to add to the presence at any possible target. 
                   This is where we seem them scrambling, and where their
                   intelligence holes are. 

                   The task now for the germans is to verify this source. 
                   Maybe even pick him up and put him on ice somewhere
                   (Fred/Stick?), not in GErmany but in
                   Pakistan/Afghanistan.  That will require some cooperation
                   with either/both the Americans and Pakistanis.  They also
                   need to verify all the bio information they have on these
                   4-6 guys trying to get into germany and watch travelers
                   very carefully.  The germans seem to be very good at
                   surveilling these threats within Germany, so their best
                   luck may come when one of the guys overseas contacts a
                   local already under surveillance. 

                   At minimum, this could be a pretty interesting tearline
                   this week.  Both the walk-in issues and the CIA/FBI
                   liaison conflicts that I havne't gotten into here. 
                   On 11/22/10 10:34 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

                     Any thoughts on where you guys are thinking of going
                     with this?

                     Der Spiegel article is indeed interesting.

                     On 11/22/10 9:28 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                       Great report from Der Spiegel (thanks Mikey).  I
                       suggest anyone interested to read the whole thing. 
                       They ask the right questions, and while not as much
                       detail as I hoped, give us a much better understanding
                       on the threat in Germany. 

                       The BKA (germany's FBI) must be extremely busy
                       verifying the details of this virtual walk-in.  It
                       obviously caused the germans to shit their pants.  But
                       the real questions are buried in the article---how
                       real was this plot, how real is the source, is the
                       source just trying to get back to the land of brezeln
                       and bier? Trying to double-cross them somehow?

                       Also note the tip off from the FBI (cue fred), not the
                       usual CIA liaison with BND. 

                       For Eurasia, there's a lot in here on the internal
                       politics of the interior minister position, and the
                       relation between state and federal government. 

                       On 11/22/10 8:55 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

                         -------- Original Message --------

                          Subject: [OS] GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's 
                                   Terror Threat                              
                             Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 08:38:21 -0600            
                             From: Graham Smith &lt;graham.smith@stratfor.com&gt;   
                         Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;              
                               To: os@stratfor.com                            

                          11/22/2010 11:38 AM
                         Fears of a Mumbai Redux
                         The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat

                         http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,730377,00.html
                         By Matthias Bartsch, Yassin Musharbash and Holger
                         Stark

                         Germany is currently in a state of high alert.
                         Security officials are warning that they have
                         concrete information pointing to a possible terror
                         attack on the federal parliament building in Berlin,
                         a massively popular tourist attraction. The days of
                         Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere's reserved
                         stances in dealing with such warnings appear to be
                         over.

                         The call came from abroad, and the man speaking
                         hurriedly on the other end of the line sounded as if
                         he feared for his life. He wanted out, he told the
                         officers of the German Federal Criminal Police
                         Office (BKA) -- out of the terrorist scene. He
                         wanted to come back to Germany, back to his family.
                         Then he asked if German officials could help him.

                         Right now, they're trying to do just that. The BKA
                         is pursuing the case under the codename "Nova." The
                         apparently remorseful man could be an important
                         possible whistleblower from a dangerous region of
                         the globe. In fact, he is also the most recent
                         reason why German Interior Minister Thomas de
                         Maiziere put the entire country in a state of fright
                         on Wednesday.

                         During a hastily called press conference that day,
                         de Maiziere stated that Germany faced the threat of
                         terrorist attacks that might be launched against the
                         country at some point in November. As he put it,
                         Germany is "presently dealing with a new situation."
                         Just two days earlier, the source had called for the
                         third time in just a short period and provided more
                         information. He told officials that a small group of
                         terrorists wanted to conduct a raid on the Reichstag
                         building in Berlin, which houses the federal
                         parliament, and that that was only one of the
                         targets included in their attack plans.

                         Germany on High Alert

                         Since then, Germany has been in a state of high
                         alert. The Reichstag is surrounded with barricades
                         and its popular cupola tourist attraction
                         temporarily closed to visitors. Police armed with
                         submachine guns are patrolling major railway
                         stations and airports. And vacations have been
                         called off for officials at the country's security
                         agencies. Wherever they have cause for doing so, the
                         authorities are secretly monitoring communications,
                         conducting surveillance operations and launching
                         undercover investigations. At the moment,
                         investigators seem to be at a loss; their modus
                         operandi: "We'll prod the shrubs and see if we can
                         flush out any birds."

                         "There is cause for worry, but no cause for
                         hysteria," de Maiziere assured his listeners. But
                         while he has never been much of an agitator, his
                         colleagues at the state level have described the
                         situation in much more drastic terms. Uwe
                         Schu:nemann, for example, who has been the interior
                         minister of the northwestern state of Lower Saxony
                         since 2003, stated that he had "never experienced a
                         heightened security situation like this one." And
                         Berlin Senator for the Interior Ehrhart Ko:rting,
                         whose position is tantamount to that of a government
                         minister in the city-state, has already even gone so
                         far as to call on the inhabitants of the German
                         capital city to report suspicious-looking
                         individuals of Arab origin to the police. "If you
                         suddenly see three somewhat strange-looking men who
                         are new to your neighborhood, who hide their faces
                         and who only speak Arabic," Ko:rting said, "you
                         should report them to the authorities."

                         Under heightened pressure, officials in Germany's 16
                         federal states are now checking to see when and
                         where major events are scheduled to take place this
                         coming week within their boundaries. And nothing
                         suggested as a possible target is being discounted,
                         no matter how unlikely. For example, officials in
                         Rhineland-Palatinate warned the state's interior
                         minister, Karl Peter Burch, that there was always a
                         lot going on at IKEA stores on Saturdays.[WTF]

                         Serenity, Scaremongering and Strategy

                         Since last week, German politicians at both the
                         state and federal levels have once again had to
                         figure out how they will handle themselves when
                         making warnings about terrorist attacks. They have
                         had to come up with a language that can
                         simultaneously convey both an alert and a sense of
                         calm.

                         This is no easy task. For one thing, this isn't the
                         first time this has happened. In September 2009, for
                         example, right before federal elections were held,
                         there were concrete threats that resulted in a
                         heightened security situation. But, in the end,
                         nothing happened. This time around, people are
                         wondering whether they are on the precipice of an
                         emergency or whether these are once again empty
                         threats.

                         Still, one thing is certain: For the time being,
                         Germany has become a different country -- more
                         nervous, more anxious, more agitated. And Germany's
                         domestic security policies are being put to the
                         test.

                         When Interior Minister de Maiziere assumed his
                         office in October 2009 in conservative Chancellor
                         Angela Merkel's government, he aimed to cool down
                         the heated sense of alarm regularly fanned out by
                         his predecessors. What's more, the man who had
                         served as Merkel's chief of staff in Chancellery
                         until being moved to the role of interior minister
                         in her new government, was given the task of
                         nurturing a more relaxed relationship between her
                         party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and its
                         new coalition partner, the business-friendly Free
                         Democratic Party (FDP). In particular, it was his
                         job to not draw out the long-standing conflict over
                         domestic security policies with the Justice
                         Ministry, which has been led since the 2009 election
                         by Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, a member of
                         the FDP. Indeed, Merkel feared that the quarrelsome
                         FDP might try to capitalize on the issue to win over
                         more voters, so she assigned de Maiziere to prevent
                         that from happening.

                         In fact, the plan was to repeat the same strategy
                         that the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the
                         Christian Social Union (CSU), had used when they
                         were in the so-called "grand coalition" with the
                         center-left Social Democratic Party, between 2005
                         and 2009. At the time, they made a point of
                         undermining the SPD by championing what had
                         traditionally been the latter party's issues.

                         A Game-Changer

                         But now the game plan has changed. This November
                         will drastically alter de Maiziere's understanding
                         of his role in office. If he tries to return things
                         to their previous state of calm, he's going to have
                         a very tough time. In fact, it's much more likely
                         that he will be a completely different interior
                         minister.

                         For a while now, de Maiziere's softer stance has
                         prompted opposition by politicians on the right
                         involved with domestic security issues. But they are
                         now calling louder than ever for a tougher course to
                         be followed. Merkel is also adjusting to the new
                         situation and is reportedly happy with the way de
                         Maiziere handled himself last week. Likewise, no one
                         seems to have voiced any criticism last Thursday
                         evening during a meeting of the Coalition Committee,
                         a regular gathering of the parties that are part of
                         the government.

                         The almost complete lack of protest has a lot to do
                         with where the alarming information is coming from.
                         In fact, information regarding the supposedly
                         imminent attacks has come from two independent
                         sources. Shortly before receiving the telephone call
                         about the planned attacks, BKA officials had
                         received a cable from their American counterparts at
                         the FBI, America's federal police force, warning of
                         possible attacks.

                         Still, what truth is there in these
                         "security-related" pieces of information coming from
                         both domestic and foreign sources? And, given all
                         the discrepancies in the warning messages, just how
                         much do they deserve to be trusted? Indeed, even
                         among security officials themselves, there is some
                         doubt about how legitimate these statements are --
                         and about just how acute the danger threatening
                         Germany really is.

                         An Attack Modelled after Mumbai[plot details in this
                         section]
                         What the caller reported was undeniably alarming.
                         According to him, al-Qaida and associated groups
                         based in Pakistan were making joint preparations for
                         an attack in Germany. One idea was to remotely
                         detonate a bomb using a mobile phone. Another called
                         for a small group of terrorists to storm the
                         Reichstag with guns blazing, take hostages and end
                         everything in one calamitous bloodbath. Indeed, BKA
                         officials learned that the latter plan had been
                         modeled on the storming of luxury hotels in Mumbai,
                         the Indian capital, almost exactly two years ago, in
                         a massacre that left 175 people dead.

                         According to the caller, the plan called for the
                         terrorists to procure the submachine guns, automatic
                         rifles, explosives and whatever else they would need
                         to storm Germany's parliament building in the
                         Balkans. He said that two men had already traveled
                         to Germany six to eight weeks earlier, adding that
                         one had the nom de guerre of "Abu Mohammed" and that
                         the other one was a German of Turkish origin. Both
                         apparently had roots in the Greater Berlin
                         metropolitan area, were currently unemployed and
                         living off of welfare payments and had immersed
                         themselves in the anonymity provided by a major city
                         -- until the time should come for their activation.

                         Likewise, there were allegedly four other volunteers
                         -- including a German, a Turk, a North African and
                         another jihadist of unknown identity -- in the
                         training camps run by al-Qaida and related groups
                         waiting for the signal to travel to Germany. And,
                         according to the telephone source, al-Qaida's plan
                         was to attack in February or March.
                         The only question now relates to just how credible
                         the caller's statements are. He is an insider who
                         joined up with armed groups several months ago and
                         has earned a reputation as a fanatic fighter.
                         But could it be that he is only trying to tell
                         German officials the juiciest things possible in
                         order to raise his own market value and thereby
                         prompt them to extract him from the terror scene? Or
                         could it be that al-Qaida is even planning a second
                         spectacular coup like the one in December 2009, when
                         the Americans allowed a supposedly top-level
                         turncoat onto an American military base without any
                         sort of pat-down, who went on to detonate his
                         explosive vest and blow seven CIA officials to bits?

                         A Strange Message

                         A clear picture has yet to emerge. And one reason
                         for this is also the fact that it was only two weeks
                         ago that the FBI first decided to share information
                         about another possible attack with German officials.

                         In this case, even the way contact was made was
                         unusual. Under normal circumstances, liaisons from
                         the CIA station in Germany are the ones to
                         communicate American warnings to their German
                         counterparts. But, this time around, it was an
                         apparently particularly anxious FBI that chose to
                         directly notify the BKA.
                         The FBI told the Germans about an obscure Indian
                         group called "Saif," or "sword." Despite being a
                         Shiite group, it had allegedly made a pact with
                         al-Qaida, a Sunni organization, and sent five of its
                         men to the Pakistani province of Waziristan for
                         training. According to the FBI, two volunteers --
                         who were already equipped with visas allowing them
                         to travel freely within the 25 European countries
                         belonging to the Schengen zone -- were supposedly
                         already en route to Germany and would enter the
                         United Arab Emirates on Monday, Nov. 22. There, they
                         would allegedly be provided with new travel
                         documents before traveling on to Germany. One of the
                         men is supposedly named "Khan," which is about as
                         common in that part of the world as "Smith" is in
                         English-speaking countries. And no firm conclusion
                         had been made about their nationalities.

                         The FBI agents even named the presumed masterminds
                         behind the operation. A certain Mushtaq Altaf
                         Bin-Khadri, who is in charge of finances and
                         training for "Saif," allegedly dispatched the
                         terrorist squad. But the FBI was not in a position
                         to comment on the targets of the two men in Germany.

                         One name came up time and again in the communique,
                         and one that pricked the Germans' ears: Dawood
                         Ibrahim. The 54-year-old arms trader is "India's
                         most-wanted man." The US government has listed him
                         as a "global terrorist" and persuaded the United
                         Nations to place his name on a list of supporters of
                         terror. Ibrahim is rumored to be the head of
                         D-Company, a criminal syndicate named after himself,
                         and is believed to be in charge of smuggling the
                         suspected terrorists into Germany.

                         Both the FBI and the BKA are attaching a lot of
                         importance to the information in the FBI communique.
                         But the intelligence services of the two countries
                         -- the CIA in the United States and the BND and
                         Office for the Protection of the Constitution in
                         Germany, the country's foreign and domestic
                         intelligence agencies, respectively -- point to
                         internal contradictions as reasons for their
                         skepticism. As they see it, for example, it is
                         highly unlikely that a Shiite group would team up
                         with Sunni terrorists, especially since a good part
                         of al-Qaida propaganda vilifies Shiites. Other
                         reasons for doubt include the facts that none of the
                         intelligence agencies was previously familiar with
                         an organization called "Saif," that there have been
                         no previously recorded threats against Germany by
                         Indian extremists, and that the whole scenario seems
                         rather implausible.

                         On the other hand, the FBI information is uncommonly
                         concrete. In addition to the names of the suspects,
                         it also provides information about the exact day on
                         which they are supposed to arrive in the United Arab
                         Emirates. Moreover, Ibrahim is believed to be one of
                         the men behind the terror attacks in Mumbai. If he
                         really is involved, that alone would be reason
                         enough for worry.

                         Abnormal Circumstances

                         Under normal circumstances, a message of this kind
                         from the United States would no doubt be cause for
                         serious-minded scrutiny, but it would not be a cause
                         for alarm. For example, the BKA would go through all
                         recent visa applications, and federal police
                         officers would take a closer look at all the people
                         entering Germany from Arab states. And the
                         intelligence services would make the rounds to see
                         if any of its partners had any helpful information
                         on the matter.

                         Indeed, under normal circumstances, there are always
                         a lot of these communiques, most of which turn out
                         to be false alarms. But these are no normal
                         circumstances. Germany is in a state of emergency.
                         Other countries, such as the United States, employ a
                         system of official warning levels based on color
                         codes that change -- from yellow to orange, for
                         example -- when the danger level is thought to
                         increase. But, in Germany, the interior minister is
                         the barometer: He consults with experts -- and then
                         it is he who must call the shots.

                         For the minister, a situation like this presents a
                         dilemma. If he remains silent and something happens,
                         he's a failure. If he makes loud warning and nothing
                         happens, he's just a rabble-rouser trying to push
                         through controversial tougher security laws. And, of
                         course, the public never thanks you if everyday life
                         continues in a normal, peaceful way.

                         Absolute Security Remains a Pipe Dream

                         When de Maiziere became Germany's interior minister,
                         he had planned to lead the ministry in a
                         level-headed way. For example, he prefers to use
                         phrases such as "internal calm" rather than
                         "internal security." And it was only six weeks ago
                         that he uttered the sentence: "There's no cause for
                         alarm." But, since then, the chorus of warning
                         voices has only ballooned in size.

                         This change in course is the combined result of
                         everything that happened beforehand. It might very
                         well turn out that the alleged Indian terror squad
                         stays home and that the raid on the Reichstag never
                         happens. But what will remain is a well-founded
                         supposition that there is a critical mass of
                         terrorists in the border region between Afghanistan
                         and Pakistan that is thinking about launching
                         attacks in Europe -- and certainly in Germany, as
                         well.

                         Raw Nerves

                         Given such circumstances, there is a major sense of
                         alarm among German officials. Last Thursday, just a
                         day after de Maiziere's shocking press conference,
                         the BKA issued a press release "in connection with
                         the current high-risk situation." It reported that a
                         piece of suspicious luggage had been discovered a
                         day earlier in Windhoek, the capital of Namibia,
                         before being loaded onto a plane bound for Germany.
                         The laptop bag contained batteries, wires, a
                         detonator and a clock -- in other words, all the
                         ingredients you need for a potential airborne
                         catastrophe.

                         It sounded as if another terror plot had been
                         foiled. Had there been a plan to blow up Air Berlin
                         Flight 7377 en route to Munich? And had the
                         authorities, yet again, discovered an explosive
                         device at the last minute? In the end, all the worry
                         was unfounded. As it turned out, the piece of
                         luggage was a test device built by a company that
                         designs "real test" suitcases to be used to test
                         security measures. It remains unclear who checked
                         the bag in. But the fact that the BKA was so quick
                         to go into alarm mode -- and publicly so -- has been
                         a communications debacle.

                         Of course, these days, nobody wants to be the one
                         that wasn't sufficiently circumspect, the one who
                         took too long to speak up. No one wants a replay of
                         situations like the one from the beginning of
                         November, when de Maiziere didn't know for hours
                         whether the package that had arrived at the
                         Chancellery contained actual explosives or was just
                         a false alarm. Now, the threshold for sounding the
                         alarm is already much lower.

                         Bonded by Fear

                         Of course, you can never be too sure. Over the last
                         12 months, a series of attacks concocted in the
                         Afghan-Pakistani border region have been foiled in
                         the West. For example, in May, a car bomb set in New
                         York's Times Square by a man with ties to the
                         Pakistani Taliban failed to properly detonate. In
                         Copenhagen, al-Qaida had made plans to storm the
                         offices of the Jyllands-Posten newspaper as revenge
                         for its 2005 publishing of caricatures of the
                         Prophet Muhammad. In October 2009, David Headley, an
                         American citizen with Pakistani roots, was arrested
                         after having already visited the newspaper's offices
                         in order to scout them out before the planned
                         attack. Other targets reportedly included the subway
                         systems of New York City and Washington.

                         On the other hand, absolute security is a pipe
                         dream. For example, British authorities had even
                         conducted rehearsals for how to respond to possible
                         attacks. But, even so, when attacks claiming 56
                         lives (including those of four attackers) did strike
                         London, on July 7, 2005, they were unable to prevent
                         them. Likewise, US intelligence services had warned
                         India a number of times that terrorists were
                         planning attacks in Mumbai.

                         The new situation in Germany has at least had one
                         positive side effect: For the time being, the
                         traditionally quarrelsome interior ministers from
                         both the state and the federal levels have refrained
                         from their usual bickering. Following informal talks
                         held last Thursday in Hamburg, Minister Bruch of
                         Rhineland-Palatinate noted that he had "never
                         experienced such harmony within this group" that has
                         apparently been bonded together by their shared
                         fear.

                         Translated from the German by Josh Ward

                       --

                       Sean Noonan

                       Tactical Analyst

                       Office: +1 512-279-9479

                       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

                       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

                       www.stratfor.com

                     --

                     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

                     Marko Papic

                     Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

                     STRATFOR

                     700 Lavaca Street - 900

                     Austin, Texas

                     78701 USA

                     P: + 1-512-744-4094

                     marko.papic@stratfor.com

                   --

                   Sean Noonan

                   Tactical Analyst

                   Office: +1 512-279-9479

                   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

                   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

                   www.stratfor.com

                 --

                 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

                 Marko Papic

                 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

                 STRATFOR

                 700 Lavaca Street - 900

                 Austin, Texas

                 78701 USA

                 P: + 1-512-744-4094

                 marko.papic@stratfor.com

               --

               - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

               Marko Papic

               Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

               STRATFOR

               700 Lavaca Street - 900

               Austin, Texas

               78701 USA

               P: + 1-512-744-4094

               marko.papic@stratfor.com

             --

             Sean Noonan

             Tactical Analyst

             Office: +1 512-279-9479

             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

             www.stratfor.com

 --
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX
      

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

 --
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX
  

 --
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX
</description>
    <date>2010-11-22 20:13:51</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1948010_re-ct-discussion-germany-ct-the-story-behind-germany-s.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ben.west@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1948022</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] Did Mossad kill German politician involved in Iran-Contra
 scandal?
</title>
    <description>Victim looks gay. Any other details on his death?

Sean Noonan wrote:
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;   Did Mossad kill German politician involved in Iran-Contra scandal?
&gt;
&gt; Posted on November 22, 2010
&gt; &lt;http://intelligencenews.wordpress.com/2010/11/22/01-600/&gt; by
&gt; intelNews
&gt; &lt;http://intelligencenews.wordpress.com/author/intelligencenews/&gt;|
&gt; Leave a comment
&gt; &lt;http://intelligencenews.wordpress.com/2010/11/22/01-600/#respond&gt;
&gt; Uwe Barschel
&gt;
&gt; Uwe Barschel
&gt;
&gt; By *JOSEPH FITSANAKIS* | intelNews.org |
&gt; Accusations of Israeli involvement in the suspicious death of a German
&gt; politician have been revived, following new autopsy evidence revealed
&gt; by a medical examiner. The case involves the death of Christian
&gt; Democratic Union politician Uwe Barschel, who on October 11, 1987, was
&gt; found dead in the bathtub of room 317 of the Beau-Rivage hotel in
&gt; Geneva, Switzerland. His sudden death occurred less than a month after
&gt; he was forced to resign from the post of Governor of West Germany’s
&gt; Schleswig-Holstein state, following his involvement in a dirty-tricks
&gt; campaign against his rival Björn Engholm, of Germany’s Social
&gt; Democratic Party. Swiss authorities, based on an initial postmortem
&gt; that revealed lethal levels of barbiturates in Barschel’s system,
&gt; ruled the death a suicide. But now Dr Hans Brandenberger, who was one
&gt; of the toxicological experts that examined Barschel, claims that he is
&gt; possession of new evidence that points to murder as the cause of the
&gt; German politician’s death. Speaking
&gt; &lt;http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article11113360/CDU-Politiker-will-neue-Ermittlungen-im-Fall-Barschel.html&gt;
&gt; on Sunday to Germany’s quality /Welt am Sonntag/ broadsheet, Dr
&gt; Brandenberger said that computer analysis of the original 1987 autopsy
&gt; data makes it “next to certain that Barschel was injected with [the
&gt; strong sedative] Noludar shortly before his death through the rectum”.
&gt; The toxicologist claims that the strong tranquilizer was part of a
&gt; complex cocktail of drugs that was force-fed to the German politician
&gt; after he was sedated, probably with the help of a spiked drink. Dr
&gt; Brandenberger’s allegations have breathed new life to claims that
&gt; Barschel was in fact murdered by Israeli intelligence agency Mossad,
&gt; who targeted him because of his inside knowledge of Iran-Contra
&gt; scandal dealings. Specifically, Barschel is said to have known about
&gt; an alleged transfer of Israeli military aircraft to the Islamic
&gt; Republic of Iran, facilitated under United States oversight through
&gt; German mediators. Following his resignation from his governor post, he
&gt; had threatened to publicize insider accounts of the alleged transfer.
&gt; During the Iran-Contra Scandal (1985-1986), Israel acted as
&gt; Washington’s conduit in supplying US-made weapons to Iran and then
&gt; channeling the profits to the Contras paramilitary mercenaries
&gt; fighting Nicaragua’s Sandinista government. Incidentally
&gt; &lt;http://intelligencenews.wordpress.com/about/latest-analysis/content/analysis009/&gt;,
&gt; Israel did so in full knowledge of the fact that the Iranian
&gt; government was at that time the primary military supplier of
&gt; Palestinian militant group Hamas.
&gt;
&gt; -- 
&gt;
&gt; Sean Noonan
&gt;
&gt; Tactical Analyst
&gt;
&gt; Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt;
&gt; Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt;
&gt; Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt;
&gt; www.stratfor.com
&gt;
</description>
    <date>2010-11-22 18:25:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-05 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1948022_re-ct-did-mossad-kill-german-politician-involved-in-iran.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1948061</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror
 Threat
</title>
    <description>   Here are some of the thoughts and inconsistencies I found - I had
   summarized the der spiegel to pick out the bits I found important and
   added some info from other OS articles in blue.

   -Call from abroad (likely Pakistan) from "Nova" a terrorist wanting to
   surrender and return to his family in Germany
   -now working with German Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) and was
   reason behind threat increase on Wednesday, so far three calls have taken
   place between "Nova" and BKA
   -warned of small group attacking Reichstag on Monday and security has
   since been increased, authorities are secretly monitoring communications,
   conducting surveillance operations and launching undercover
   investigations.
   According to "NOVA":
   -AQ and associate groups (Pakistan's Islamic Jihad Group) planning
   together in Pakistan for attack(s) in Germany.
   -One idea was to remotely detonate a bomb using a mobile phone. Another
   called for a small group of terrorists to storm the Reichstag with guns
   blazing, take hostages and end everything in one calamitous bloodbath.
   -Plan called for the terrorists to procure the submachine guns, automatic
   rifles, explosives and whatever else they would need in the Balkans.
   -He said that two men had already traveled to Germany six to eight weeks
   earlier, adding that one had the nom de guerre of "Abu Mohammed" and that
   the other one was a German of Turkish origin
   -Both apparently had roots in the Greater Berlin metropolitan area, were
   currently unemployed and living off of welfare payments and had immersed
   themselves in the anonymity provided by a major city -- until the time
   should come for their activation.
   -Four others involved were waiting to travel to Germany at training camps
   in Pakistan - including a German, a Turk, a North African and another
   jihadist of unknown identity
   -Attack slated for February or March (if German intel had this knowledge
   why would they close the Reichstag today? are they sending a statement to
   AQ and affiliate group that they are aware and ahead of the planning?)

   According to FBI (which was recieved shortly before the call from "Nova"
   (there are some inconsistencies between the intelligence)
   - FBI included warnings about the obscure Indian group "Saif" which
   although Shiite had allegedly made pact with AQ and sent five men to
   Pakistan for training - what the connection to the Germany plot not
   specified - the 6 members described in the Reichstag plot were described
   by caller as various nationalities - none Indian)
   -FBI also shared that two members with visas allowing them to travel
   freely in EU schengen zone were already enroute to Germany and would enter
   via UAE on Nov 22  (compared to caller saying that two had already entered
   two weeks prior - time gap - so maybe there are four now in Germany unless
   FBI intel was outdated and the men came earlier - or caller was not
   accurate?)
   -FBI warnings claim the two in Germany were dispatched by Dawood Ibrahim
   Kaskar, an Indian organised crime baron linked to al-Qaeda based out of
   Karachi (this seems out of place - two mentions by the FBI of an Indian
   connection)
   -One of the men is supposedly named "Khan" (versus caller's info he was
   named Abu Muhammed and the second guy was of Turkish descent - Khan is not
   Turkish, Khan and Abu Muhammed could be the same guy though)

   Ben West wrote:

     Europeans have still found a way to blame Americans for warnings in the
     past.

     And yes, something very well could be in the works, but given the fact
     that jihadists constantly want to attack the west, is it really at all
     significant that something is in the works?

     I think we'd seen past plots with travel plans... I'd have to look
     harder to get specifics, but I don't think that's all that novel.

     Agree that the security officials are in a catch-22 situation.

     On 11/22/2010 11:43 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       There is a notable difference here.  And that is the German warning
       issued last week.  It was based on their own intelligence not American
       intelligence--so no blaming americans this time.  Yes, it's true that
       they don't have the capability to attack the Reichstag, and theat the
       attack is not imminent, as I pointed out.  But on the other hand, like
       with cargo parcels, it doesn't mean that something is not in the
       works.  Have we ever seen information this specific before on the
       individuals and their travel plans? 

       This is the conundrum of warning intelligence,  when the warning is
       given (just to policymakers, or to the public), measures are taken
       that prevent it.  It then comes the boy-who-cried-wolf, even if the
       warning was originally accurate. 

       Not to mention, given what happened with the last double agent to
       become public (Khost), it will be interesting to follow this one. 
       On 11/22/10 11:33 AM, Ben West wrote:

         I agree that the spiegel article was good - but this is the kind of
         thing we've seen over and over again in Europe. Source from
         durkastan says that aq is going to target Europe and kill lots of
         people and that attackers are en route. Everyone gets freaked out.
         Nothing significant happens. Europe blames US of scare mongering.

         Certainly islamists have europe in their cross-hairs, but if an
         attack is going to happen, it's not going be preceded by this kind
         of publicity.

         Also, attacking the reichstag? I mean, it's possible to ATTACK it,
         but they've got a pretty heavy security presence there that would
         prevent a hostage situation. I was there a few years ago. The public
         entryway is confined to one doorway with a heavy guard presence,
         metal detectors, x-ray machines, etc. If anything, an attack could
         kill lots of tourists lined up outside, but it would take a very
         serious force to be able to gain entrance to the reichstag and an
         even more well trained force to actually hold hostages. This sounds
         like a pipe-dream to me.

         On 11/22/2010 11:04 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           thoughts?

           On 11/22/10 11:00 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

             It is up to you and CT how you approach this. On the short-term,
             this looks like something you can handle without me. If you want
             to dabble in the more long-term view of what is going on here, I
             would love to help.

             On 11/22/10 10:58 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

               In the more long-term, I think an analysis of the German
               intelligence agencies would be good too. They have been pretty
               decimated by the Cold War and by all the problems associated
               with running an intelligence agency in a post-Gestapo country.
               If Germany is ever going to become a world power again,
               however, they would need to overcome these deamons as well.
               That is sort of the last straw for Germany, the one that is
               going to be most sensitive to overcome. But perhaps this case
               may illustrate how they are already overcoming these issues.

               On 11/22/10 10:50 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                 Main problem is that Der Spiegel is just that good, they've
                 at least touched on most of what I would want to say about
                 it.  The main thing here is how the politics of a terror
                 threat/alert coincide with the reality of the threat
                 itself. 

                 We saw that Germany was fairly relaxed bout the earlier
                 threat in Europe released by the US.  I'm not sure if that
                 was the same as the info that the FBI passed over about this
                 shia group, Saif (I don't know anything about them).  But
                 something changed, as we noted last week in their
                 interpretation.  That seems to go down to this virtual
                 walk-in.  The one thing I was left confused about is whether
                 BKA had ever been in contact with this source before.  It
                 sounds like he cold called them.  It's common knowledge that
                 walk-ins, rather than recruits, are nearly always the best
                 sources.  But at the same time, they are very suspicious as
                 double agents.  If this was a US source they would be
                 freaking the fuck out after having Al-Balawi turn on them. 
                 The germans seem to have cooler heads, but they will be
                 working 24/7 to verify the source (let me make another plug
                 for John Lecarre's A Most Wanted Man here, most of his
                 career was in Germany). 

                 They've clearly got enough corroborating information that
                 they consider this a real threat.  But politically they are
                 faced with the universal 'damned if you do, damned if you
                 don't' alert problem.  If the Interior ministry doesn't say
                 something, they will be liable if an attack occurs.  Look at
                 the constant press over information on the warning
                 intelligence for Mumbai.  As we've said before, simply
                 issuing the warning may help to deter the attackers. 

                 The real important bit here, is that it seems the germans
                 have fairly good intelligence.  While this attack is still
                 not happening tomorrow, they have a lot of details about
                 what might be in the works, rather than a single-source
                 intercept that indicates some vague threat.  It seems
                 they've increased security pretty well at the Bundestag, and
                 want to add to the presence at any possible target.  This is
                 where we seem them scrambling, and where their intelligence
                 holes are. 

                 The task now for the germans is to verify this source. 
                 Maybe even pick him up and put him on ice somewhere
                 (Fred/Stick?), not in GErmany but in Pakistan/Afghanistan. 
                 That will require some cooperation with either/both the
                 Americans and Pakistanis.  They also need to verify all the
                 bio information they have on these 4-6 guys trying to get
                 into germany and watch travelers very carefully.  The
                 germans seem to be very good at surveilling these threats
                 within Germany, so their best luck may come when one of the
                 guys overseas contacts a local already under surveillance. 

                 At minimum, this could be a pretty interesting tearline this
                 week.  Both the walk-in issues and the CIA/FBI liaison
                 conflicts that I havne't gotten into here. 
                 On 11/22/10 10:34 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

                   Any thoughts on where you guys are thinking of going with
                   this?

                   Der Spiegel article is indeed interesting.

                   On 11/22/10 9:28 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                     Great report from Der Spiegel (thanks Mikey).  I suggest
                     anyone interested to read the whole thing.  They ask the
                     right questions, and while not as much detail as I
                     hoped, give us a much better understanding on the threat
                     in Germany. 

                     The BKA (germany's FBI) must be extremely busy verifying
                     the details of this virtual walk-in.  It obviously
                     caused the germans to shit their pants.  But the real
                     questions are buried in the article---how real was this
                     plot, how real is the source, is the source just trying
                     to get back to the land of brezeln and bier? Trying to
                     double-cross them somehow?

                     Also note the tip off from the FBI (cue fred), not the
                     usual CIA liaison with BND. 

                     For Eurasia, there's a lot in here on the internal
                     politics of the interior minister position, and the
                     relation between state and federal government. 

                     On 11/22/10 8:55 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

                       -------- Original Message --------

                        Subject: [OS] GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's   
                                 Terror Threat                                
                           Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 08:38:21 -0600              
                           From: Graham Smith &lt;graham.smith@stratfor.com&gt;     
                       Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                
                             To: os@stratfor.com                              

                        11/22/2010 11:38 AM
                       Fears of a Mumbai Redux
                       The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat

                       http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,730377,00.html
                       By Matthias Bartsch, Yassin Musharbash and Holger
                       Stark

                       Germany is currently in a state of high alert.
                       Security officials are warning that they have concrete
                       information pointing to a possible terror attack on
                       the federal parliament building in Berlin, a massively
                       popular tourist attraction. The days of Interior
                       Minister Thomas de Maiziere's reserved stances in
                       dealing with such warnings appear to be over.

                       The call came from abroad, and the man speaking
                       hurriedly on the other end of the line sounded as if
                       he feared for his life. He wanted out, he told the
                       officers of the German Federal Criminal Police Office
                       (BKA) -- out of the terrorist scene. He wanted to come
                       back to Germany, back to his family. Then he asked if
                       German officials could help him.

                       Right now, they're trying to do just that. The BKA is
                       pursuing the case under the codename "Nova." The
                       apparently remorseful man could be an important
                       possible whistleblower from a dangerous region of the
                       globe. In fact, he is also the most recent reason why
                       German Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere put the
                       entire country in a state of fright on Wednesday.

                       During a hastily called press conference that day, de
                       Maiziere stated that Germany faced the threat of
                       terrorist attacks that might be launched against the
                       country at some point in November. As he put it,
                       Germany is "presently dealing with a new situation."
                       Just two days earlier, the source had called for the
                       third time in just a short period and provided more
                       information. He told officials that a small group of
                       terrorists wanted to conduct a raid on the Reichstag
                       building in Berlin, which houses the federal
                       parliament, and that that was only one of the targets
                       included in their attack plans.

                       Germany on High Alert

                       Since then, Germany has been in a state of high alert.
                       The Reichstag is surrounded with barricades and its
                       popular cupola tourist attraction temporarily closed
                       to visitors. Police armed with submachine guns are
                       patrolling major railway stations and airports. And
                       vacations have been called off for officials at the
                       country's security agencies. Wherever they have cause
                       for doing so, the authorities are secretly monitoring
                       communications, conducting surveillance operations and
                       launching undercover investigations. At the moment,
                       investigators seem to be at a loss; their modus
                       operandi: "We'll prod the shrubs and see if we can
                       flush out any birds."

                       "There is cause for worry, but no cause for hysteria,"
                       de Maiziere assured his listeners. But while he has
                       never been much of an agitator, his colleagues at the
                       state level have described the situation in much more
                       drastic terms. Uwe Schu:nemann, for example, who has
                       been the interior minister of the northwestern state
                       of Lower Saxony since 2003, stated that he had "never
                       experienced a heightened security situation like this
                       one." And Berlin Senator for the Interior Ehrhart
                       Ko:rting, whose position is tantamount to that of a
                       government minister in the city-state, has already
                       even gone so far as to call on the inhabitants of the
                       German capital city to report suspicious-looking
                       individuals of Arab origin to the police. "If you
                       suddenly see three somewhat strange-looking men who
                       are new to your neighborhood, who hide their faces and
                       who only speak Arabic," Ko:rting said, "you should
                       report them to the authorities."

                       Under heightened pressure, officials in Germany's 16
                       federal states are now checking to see when and where
                       major events are scheduled to take place this coming
                       week within their boundaries. And nothing suggested as
                       a possible target is being discounted, no matter how
                       unlikely. For example, officials in
                       Rhineland-Palatinate warned the state's interior
                       minister, Karl Peter Burch, that there was always a
                       lot going on at IKEA stores on Saturdays.[WTF]

                       Serenity, Scaremongering and Strategy

                       Since last week, German politicians at both the state
                       and federal levels have once again had to figure out
                       how they will handle themselves when making warnings
                       about terrorist attacks. They have had to come up with
                       a language that can simultaneously convey both an
                       alert and a sense of calm.

                       This is no easy task. For one thing, this isn't the
                       first time this has happened. In September 2009, for
                       example, right before federal elections were held,
                       there were concrete threats that resulted in a
                       heightened security situation. But, in the end,
                       nothing happened. This time around, people are
                       wondering whether they are on the precipice of an
                       emergency or whether these are once again empty
                       threats.

                       Still, one thing is certain: For the time being,
                       Germany has become a different country -- more
                       nervous, more anxious, more agitated. And Germany's
                       domestic security policies are being put to the test.

                       When Interior Minister de Maiziere assumed his office
                       in October 2009 in conservative Chancellor Angela
                       Merkel's government, he aimed to cool down the heated
                       sense of alarm regularly fanned out by his
                       predecessors. What's more, the man who had served as
                       Merkel's chief of staff in Chancellery until being
                       moved to the role of interior minister in her new
                       government, was given the task of nurturing a more
                       relaxed relationship between her party, the Christian
                       Democratic Union (CDU), and its new coalition partner,
                       the business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP). In
                       particular, it was his job to not draw out the
                       long-standing conflict over domestic security policies
                       with the Justice Ministry, which has been led since
                       the 2009 election by Sabine
                       Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, a member of the FDP.
                       Indeed, Merkel feared that the quarrelsome FDP might
                       try to capitalize on the issue to win over more
                       voters, so she assigned de Maiziere to prevent that
                       from happening.

                       In fact, the plan was to repeat the same strategy that
                       the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian
                       Social Union (CSU), had used when they were in the
                       so-called "grand coalition" with the center-left
                       Social Democratic Party, between 2005 and 2009. At the
                       time, they made a point of undermining the SPD by
                       championing what had traditionally been the latter
                       party's issues.

                       A Game-Changer

                       But now the game plan has changed. This November will
                       drastically alter de Maiziere's understanding of his
                       role in office. If he tries to return things to their
                       previous state of calm, he's going to have a very
                       tough time. In fact, it's much more likely that he
                       will be a completely different interior minister.

                       For a while now, de Maiziere's softer stance has
                       prompted opposition by politicians on the right
                       involved with domestic security issues. But they are
                       now calling louder than ever for a tougher course to
                       be followed. Merkel is also adjusting to the new
                       situation and is reportedly happy with the way de
                       Maiziere handled himself last week. Likewise, no one
                       seems to have voiced any criticism last Thursday
                       evening during a meeting of the Coalition Committee, a
                       regular gathering of the parties that are part of the
                       government.

                       The almost complete lack of protest has a lot to do
                       with where the alarming information is coming from. In
                       fact, information regarding the supposedly imminent
                       attacks has come from two independent sources. Shortly
                       before receiving the telephone call about the planned
                       attacks, BKA officials had received a cable from their
                       American counterparts at the FBI, America's federal
                       police force, warning of possible attacks.

                       Still, what truth is there in these "security-related"
                       pieces of information coming from both domestic and
                       foreign sources? And, given all the discrepancies in
                       the warning messages, just how much do they deserve to
                       be trusted? Indeed, even among security officials
                       themselves, there is some doubt about how legitimate
                       these statements are -- and about just how acute the
                       danger threatening Germany really is.

                       An Attack Modelled after Mumbai[plot details in this
                       section]
                       What the caller reported was undeniably alarming.
                       According to him, al-Qaida and associated groups based
                       in Pakistan were making joint preparations for an
                       attack in Germany. One idea was to remotely detonate a
                       bomb using a mobile phone. Another called for a small
                       group of terrorists to storm the Reichstag with guns
                       blazing, take hostages and end everything in one
                       calamitous bloodbath. Indeed, BKA officials learned
                       that the latter plan had been modeled on the storming
                       of luxury hotels in Mumbai, the Indian capital, almost
                       exactly two years ago, in a massacre that left 175
                       people dead.

                       According to the caller, the plan called for the
                       terrorists to procure the submachine guns, automatic
                       rifles, explosives and whatever else they would need
                       to storm Germany's parliament building in the Balkans.
                       He said that two men had already traveled to Germany
                       six to eight weeks earlier, adding that one had the
                       nom de guerre of "Abu Mohammed" and that the other one
                       was a German of Turkish origin. Both apparently had
                       roots in the Greater Berlin metropolitan area, were
                       currently unemployed and living off of welfare
                       payments and had immersed themselves in the anonymity
                       provided by a major city -- until the time should come
                       for their activation.

                       Likewise, there were allegedly four other volunteers
                       -- including a German, a Turk, a North African and
                       another jihadist of unknown identity -- in the
                       training camps run by al-Qaida and related groups
                       waiting for the signal to travel to Germany. And,
                       according to the telephone source, al-Qaida's plan was
                       to attack in February or March.
                       The only question now relates to just how credible the
                       caller's statements are. He is an insider who joined
                       up with armed groups several months ago and has earned
                       a reputation as a fanatic fighter.
                       But could it be that he is only trying to tell German
                       officials the juiciest things possible in order to
                       raise his own market value and thereby prompt them to
                       extract him from the terror scene? Or could it be that
                       al-Qaida is even planning a second spectacular coup
                       like the one in December 2009, when the Americans
                       allowed a supposedly top-level turncoat onto an
                       American military base without any sort of pat-down,
                       who went on to detonate his explosive vest and blow
                       seven CIA officials to bits?

                       A Strange Message

                       A clear picture has yet to emerge. And one reason for
                       this is also the fact that it was only two weeks ago
                       that the FBI first decided to share information about
                       another possible attack with German officials.

                       In this case, even the way contact was made was
                       unusual. Under normal circumstances, liaisons from the
                       CIA station in Germany are the ones to communicate
                       American warnings to their German counterparts. But,
                       this time around, it was an apparently particularly
                       anxious FBI that chose to directly notify the BKA.
                       The FBI told the Germans about an obscure Indian group
                       called "Saif," or "sword." Despite being a Shiite
                       group, it had allegedly made a pact with al-Qaida, a
                       Sunni organization, and sent five of its men to the
                       Pakistani province of Waziristan for training.
                       According to the FBI, two volunteers -- who were
                       already equipped with visas allowing them to travel
                       freely within the 25 European countries belonging to
                       the Schengen zone -- were supposedly already en route
                       to Germany and would enter the United Arab Emirates on
                       Monday, Nov. 22. There, they would allegedly be
                       provided with new travel documents before traveling on
                       to Germany. One of the men is supposedly named "Khan,"
                       which is about as common in that part of the world as
                       "Smith" is in English-speaking countries. And no firm
                       conclusion had been made about their nationalities.

                       The FBI agents even named the presumed masterminds
                       behind the operation. A certain Mushtaq Altaf
                       Bin-Khadri, who is in charge of finances and training
                       for "Saif," allegedly dispatched the terrorist squad.
                       But the FBI was not in a position to comment on the
                       targets of the two men in Germany.

                       One name came up time and again in the communique, and
                       one that pricked the Germans' ears: Dawood Ibrahim.
                       The 54-year-old arms trader is "India's most-wanted
                       man." The US government has listed him as a "global
                       terrorist" and persuaded the United Nations to place
                       his name on a list of supporters of terror. Ibrahim is
                       rumored to be the head of D-Company, a criminal
                       syndicate named after himself, and is believed to be
                       in charge of smuggling the suspected terrorists into
                       Germany.

                       Both the FBI and the BKA are attaching a lot of
                       importance to the information in the FBI communique.
                       But the intelligence services of the two countries --
                       the CIA in the United States and the BND and Office
                       for the Protection of the Constitution in Germany, the
                       country's foreign and domestic intelligence agencies,
                       respectively -- point to internal contradictions as
                       reasons for their skepticism. As they see it, for
                       example, it is highly unlikely that a Shiite group
                       would team up with Sunni terrorists, especially since
                       a good part of al-Qaida propaganda vilifies Shiites.
                       Other reasons for doubt include the facts that none of
                       the intelligence agencies was previously familiar with
                       an organization called "Saif," that there have been no
                       previously recorded threats against Germany by Indian
                       extremists, and that the whole scenario seems rather
                       implausible.

                       On the other hand, the FBI information is uncommonly
                       concrete. In addition to the names of the suspects, it
                       also provides information about the exact day on which
                       they are supposed to arrive in the United Arab
                       Emirates. Moreover, Ibrahim is believed to be one of
                       the men behind the terror attacks in Mumbai. If he
                       really is involved, that alone would be reason enough
                       for worry.

                       Abnormal Circumstances

                       Under normal circumstances, a message of this kind
                       from the United States would no doubt be cause for
                       serious-minded scrutiny, but it would not be a cause
                       for alarm. For example, the BKA would go through all
                       recent visa applications, and federal police officers
                       would take a closer look at all the people entering
                       Germany from Arab states. And the intelligence
                       services would make the rounds to see if any of its
                       partners had any helpful information on the matter.

                       Indeed, under normal circumstances, there are always a
                       lot of these communiques, most of which turn out to be
                       false alarms. But these are no normal circumstances.
                       Germany is in a state of emergency. Other countries,
                       such as the United States, employ a system of official
                       warning levels based on color codes that change --
                       from yellow to orange, for example -- when the danger
                       level is thought to increase. But, in Germany, the
                       interior minister is the barometer: He consults with
                       experts -- and then it is he who must call the shots.

                       For the minister, a situation like this presents a
                       dilemma. If he remains silent and something happens,
                       he's a failure. If he makes loud warning and nothing
                       happens, he's just a rabble-rouser trying to push
                       through controversial tougher security laws. And, of
                       course, the public never thanks you if everyday life
                       continues in a normal, peaceful way.

                       Absolute Security Remains a Pipe Dream

                       When de Maiziere became Germany's interior minister,
                       he had planned to lead the ministry in a level-headed
                       way. For example, he prefers to use phrases such as
                       "internal calm" rather than "internal security." And
                       it was only six weeks ago that he uttered the
                       sentence: "There's no cause for alarm." But, since
                       then, the chorus of warning voices has only ballooned
                       in size.

                       This change in course is the combined result of
                       everything that happened beforehand. It might very
                       well turn out that the alleged Indian terror squad
                       stays home and that the raid on the Reichstag never
                       happens. But what will remain is a well-founded
                       supposition that there is a critical mass of
                       terrorists in the border region between Afghanistan
                       and Pakistan that is thinking about launching attacks
                       in Europe -- and certainly in Germany, as well.

                       Raw Nerves

                       Given such circumstances, there is a major sense of
                       alarm among German officials. Last Thursday, just a
                       day after de Maiziere's shocking press conference, the
                       BKA issued a press release "in connection with the
                       current high-risk situation." It reported that a piece
                       of suspicious luggage had been discovered a day
                       earlier in Windhoek, the capital of Namibia, before
                       being loaded onto a plane bound for Germany. The
                       laptop bag contained batteries, wires, a detonator and
                       a clock -- in other words, all the ingredients you
                       need for a potential airborne catastrophe.

                       It sounded as if another terror plot had been foiled.
                       Had there been a plan to blow up Air Berlin Flight
                       7377 en route to Munich? And had the authorities, yet
                       again, discovered an explosive device at the last
                       minute? In the end, all the worry was unfounded. As it
                       turned out, the piece of luggage was a test device
                       built by a company that designs "real test" suitcases
                       to be used to test security measures. It remains
                       unclear who checked the bag in. But the fact that the
                       BKA was so quick to go into alarm mode -- and publicly
                       so -- has been a communications debacle.

                       Of course, these days, nobody wants to be the one that
                       wasn't sufficiently circumspect, the one who took too
                       long to speak up. No one wants a replay of situations
                       like the one from the beginning of November, when de
                       Maiziere didn't know for hours whether the package
                       that had arrived at the Chancellery contained actual
                       explosives or was just a false alarm. Now, the
                       threshold for sounding the alarm is already much
                       lower.

                       Bonded by Fear

                       Of course, you can never be too sure. Over the last 12
                       months, a series of attacks concocted in the
                       Afghan-Pakistani border region have been foiled in the
                       West. For example, in May, a car bomb set in New
                       York's Times Square by a man with ties to the
                       Pakistani Taliban failed to properly detonate. In
                       Copenhagen, al-Qaida had made plans to storm the
                       offices of the Jyllands-Posten newspaper as revenge
                       for its 2005 publishing of caricatures of the Prophet
                       Muhammad. In October 2009, David Headley, an American
                       citizen with Pakistani roots, was arrested after
                       having already visited the newspaper's offices in
                       order to scout them out before the planned attack.
                       Other targets reportedly included the subway systems
                       of New York City and Washington.

                       On the other hand, absolute security is a pipe dream.
                       For example, British authorities had even conducted
                       rehearsals for how to respond to possible attacks.
                       But, even so, when attacks claiming 56 lives
                       (including those of four attackers) did strike London,
                       on July 7, 2005, they were unable to prevent them.
                       Likewise, US intelligence services had warned India a
                       number of times that terrorists were planning attacks
                       in Mumbai.

                       The new situation in Germany has at least had one
                       positive side effect: For the time being, the
                       traditionally quarrelsome interior ministers from both
                       the state and the federal levels have refrained from
                       their usual bickering. Following informal talks held
                       last Thursday in Hamburg, Minister Bruch of
                       Rhineland-Palatinate noted that he had "never
                       experienced such harmony within this group" that has
                       apparently been bonded together by their shared fear.

                       Translated from the German by Josh Ward

                     --

                     Sean Noonan

                     Tactical Analyst

                     Office: +1 512-279-9479

                     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

                     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

                     www.stratfor.com

                   --

                   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

                   Marko Papic

                   Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

                   STRATFOR

                   700 Lavaca Street - 900

                   Austin, Texas

                   78701 USA

                   P: + 1-512-744-4094

                   marko.papic@stratfor.com

                 --

                 Sean Noonan

                 Tactical Analyst

                 Office: +1 512-279-9479

                 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

                 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

                 www.stratfor.com

               --

               - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

               Marko Papic

               Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

               STRATFOR

               700 Lavaca Street - 900

               Austin, Texas

               78701 USA

               P: + 1-512-744-4094

               marko.papic@stratfor.com

             --

             - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

             Marko Papic

             Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

             STRATFOR

             700 Lavaca Street - 900

             Austin, Texas

             78701 USA

             P: + 1-512-744-4094

             marko.papic@stratfor.com

           --

           Sean Noonan

           Tactical Analyst

           Office: +1 512-279-9479

           Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

           Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

           www.stratfor.com

 --
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX
      

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

 --
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX
  
</description>
    <date>2010-11-22 20:01:11</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1948061_re-ct-discussion-germany-ct-the-story-behind-germany-s.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>jaclyn.blumenfeld@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1949988</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] UK Plot - Do we have the target list?
</title>
    <description>The only wave to attack the US Emb London is via an in bound aircraft or
shoulder fired rocket in to the bldg. 

The fascinating part to learn (in facts vice news) would be how 5 got
onto them in the first place. 

scott stewart wrote:
&gt;
&gt; This shows us that they were Kramer wannabe terrorists.
&gt;
&gt;  
&gt;
&gt;  
&gt;
&gt; *From:* Michael Wilson [mailto:michael.wilson@stratfor.com]
&gt; *Sent:* Monday, December 27, 2010 2:41 PM
&gt; *To:* CT AOR
&gt; *Cc:* Fred Burton; Sean Noonan; 'TACTICAL'
&gt; *Subject:* Re: [CT] UK Plot - Do we have the target list?
&gt;
&gt;  
&gt;
&gt; *US embassy in London was a target of UK suspects*
&gt; http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/us-embassy-in-london-was-a-target-of-uk-suspects/
&gt; 12.27.10
&gt;
&gt; WASHINGTON, Dec 27 (Reuters) - The U.S. embassy in London was a target
&gt; of a group of men arrested last week in Britain and charged with
&gt; conspiracy to cause explosions and preparing acts of terrorism, the
&gt; U.S. State Department said on Monday.
&gt;
&gt; Twelve men were arrested on Dec. 20 in what British police said were
&gt; counter-terrorism raids essential to protect the public from the
&gt; threat of attack. [ID:nLDE6BQ08O]
&gt;
&gt; Three were later released without charges, leaving nine who appeared
&gt; in court on Monday to face the charges.
&gt;
&gt; Asked if he was aware of reports the suspects indicated that the U.S.
&gt; embassy in London was on their target list, State Department spokesman
&gt; Mark Toner told reporters: "I am aware and ... obviously our folks in
&gt; London are aware of this."
&gt;
&gt; In response to a follow-up question during a telephone briefing with
&gt; reporters, Toner said: "You asked me if we were aware that we were on
&gt; the targeting list and I confirmed that."
&gt;
&gt; The suspects were from London, the Welsh capital of Cardiff and the
&gt; central English city of Stoke.
&gt;
&gt; A British police statement said the men had conspired to cause
&gt; "explosions of a nature likely to endanger life or cause serious
&gt; injury to property".
&gt;
&gt; It added they had been downloading material from the Internet,
&gt; researching and discussing potential targets, carrying out
&gt; reconnaissance and "igniting and testing incendiary material".
&gt;
&gt; The police statement did not specify what the potential targets were.
&gt; (Editing by Mohammad Zargham)
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; On 12/27/10 11:36 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;
&gt; For example, you can input an image of a terrorist and search for the
&gt; suspect at other sites, if you suspect surveillance. 
&gt;  
&gt; License plate readers are also heavy inside London.   
&gt;  
&gt; Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;
&gt;     London Stock Exchange is protected by heavy surveillance coverages
&gt;
&gt;     (TrapWire) and predictive software. 
&gt;
&gt;      
&gt;
&gt;     Sean Noonan wrote:
&gt;
&gt;       
&gt;
&gt;         They haven't allowed the details to be released.  All I've seen is the
&gt;
&gt;         London Stock Exchange and "The Guardian website has said shops, banks
&gt;
&gt;         and "iconic targets" in London were on a list of sites for bombing. "
&gt;
&gt;          
&gt;
&gt;         -shopping centers and gov't buildings
&gt;
&gt;          
&gt;
&gt;         On 12/27/10 10:56 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;
&gt;             
&gt;
&gt;             http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-12081828
&gt;
&gt;              
&gt;
&gt;             They are alleged to have done this by carrying out reconnaissance,
&gt;
&gt;             agreeing potential targets, downloading and researching materials and
&gt;
&gt;             igniting and testing incendiary material.
&gt;
&gt;                 
&gt;
&gt;                   
&gt;
&gt;         -- 
&gt;
&gt;          
&gt;
&gt;         Sean Noonan
&gt;
&gt;          
&gt;
&gt;         Tactical Analyst
&gt;
&gt;          
&gt;
&gt;         Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt;
&gt;          
&gt;
&gt;         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt;
&gt;          
&gt;
&gt;         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt;
&gt;          
&gt;
&gt;         www.stratfor.com &lt;http://www.stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;
&gt;          
&gt;
&gt;             
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; -- 
&gt; Michael Wilson
&gt; Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
&gt; Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
&gt; Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com &lt;mailto:michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;  
</description>
    <date>2010-12-27 20:47:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1949988_re-ct-uk-plot-do-we-have-the-target-list-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.wilson@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1950032</id>
    <title>RE: [CT] UK Plot - Do we have the target list?
</title>
    <description>   This shows us that they were Kramer wannabe terrorists.

    

    

   From: Michael Wilson [mailto:michael.wilson@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Monday, December 27, 2010 2:41 PM
   To: CT AOR
   Cc: Fred Burton; Sean Noonan; 'TACTICAL'
   Subject: Re: [CT] UK Plot - Do we have the target list?

    

   US embassy in London was a target of UK suspects
   http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/us-embassy-in-london-was-a-target-of-uk-suspects/
   12.27.10

   WASHINGTON, Dec 27 (Reuters) - The U.S. embassy in London was a target of
   a group of men arrested last week in Britain and charged with conspiracy
   to cause explosions and preparing acts of terrorism, the U.S. State
   Department said on Monday.

   Twelve men were arrested on Dec. 20 in what British police said were
   counter-terrorism raids essential to protect the public from the threat of
   attack. [ID:nLDE6BQ08O]

   Three were later released without charges, leaving nine who appeared in
   court on Monday to face the charges.

   Asked if he was aware of reports the suspects indicated that the U.S.
   embassy in London was on their target list, State Department spokesman
   Mark Toner told reporters: "I am aware and ... obviously our folks in
   London are aware of this."

   In response to a follow-up question during a telephone briefing with
   reporters, Toner said: "You asked me if we were aware that we were on the
   targeting list and I confirmed that."

   The suspects were from London, the Welsh capital of Cardiff and the
   central English city of Stoke.

   A British police statement said the men had conspired to cause "explosions
   of a nature likely to endanger life or cause serious injury to property".

   It added they had been downloading material from the Internet, researching
   and discussing potential targets, carrying out reconnaissance and
   "igniting and testing incendiary material".

   The police statement did not specify what the potential targets were.
   (Editing by Mohammad Zargham)

   On 12/27/10 11:36 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

 For example, you can input an image of a terrorist and search for the

 suspect at other sites, if you suspect surveillance.

  

 License plate readers are also heavy inside London.  

  

 Fred Burton wrote:

 London Stock Exchange is protected by heavy surveillance coverages

 (TrapWire) and predictive software.

  

 Sean Noonan wrote:

  

 They haven't allowed the details to be released.  All I've seen is the

 London Stock Exchange and "The Guardian website has said shops, banks

 and "iconic targets" in London were on a list of sites for bombing. "

  

 -shopping centers and gov't buildings

  

 On 12/27/10 10:56 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

    

 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-12081828

  

 They are alleged to have done this by carrying out reconnaissance,

 agreeing potential targets, downloading and researching materials and

 igniting and testing incendiary material.

    

       

 --

  

 Sean Noonan

  

 Tactical Analyst

  

 Office: +1 512-279-9479

  

 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

  

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

  

 www.stratfor.com

  

    

 --

 Michael Wilson

 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR

 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112

 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com

  
</description>
    <date>2010-12-27 20:44:44</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1950032_re-ct-uk-plot-do-we-have-the-target-list-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.wilson@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1950233</id>
    <title>[TACTICAL] Fw: Fwd: Republicans Propose Bill to Treat Mexican Drug
	Cartels as 'Terrorist Insurgency'
</title>
    <description>   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Jim Gibson &lt;afrsatxbrigade@aol.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 16 Dec 2011 15:20:09 -0600 (CST)
   To: &lt;afrsatxbrigade@aol.com&gt;
   Subject: Fwd: Republicans Propose Bill to Treat Mexican Drug Cartels as
   'Terrorist Insurgency'

   Sent: Fri, Dec 16, 2011 2:41 pm
   Subject: Republicans Propose Bill to Treat Mexican Drug Cartels as
   'Terrorist Insurgency'

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
   (-&gt;)"The Christmas spirit of peace, hope and love is the spirit Americans
   carry with them all year round, everywhere we go. As long as we do, we
   need never be afraid, because trusting in God is the one sure answer to
   all the problems we face."
   --President Ronald Reagan, December '83 Christmas Eve Radio Address
   Republicans Propose Bill to Treat Mexican Drug Cartels as 'Terrorist
   Insurgency'

   By Elizabeth Harrington
   December 15, 2011

   (CNSNews.com) - Calling the situation along the U.S. border a "threat to
   national security," a House committee Thursday took up a bill sponsored by
   Republican congressmen that would treat Mexican drug cartels like
   terrorists and apply a counterinsurgency strategy to the growing violence
   along the Southern border.

   Rep. Connie Mack (R-Fla.) introduced H.R. 3401 the "Enhanced Border
   Security Act" on Nov. 9 to secure the U.S.-Mexico border, stop criminal
   access to U.S. financial institutions, and work with Mexico to implement
   counterinsurgency tactics to undermine the control of the drug cartels in
   the country.

   The bill would also double the number of Border Patrol agents, and provide
   additional infrastructure to secure the border, including "tactical double
   layered fencing."

   "A terrorist insurgency is being waged along our Southern border," said
   Mack, during the mark up of the bill in the Western Hemisphere
   subcommittee of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, where he serves as
   chairman.

   "The term terrorist insurgency may be strong," said Mack, who said the
   cartels operate across Mexico, Central America and in over 1,000 American
   cities.  "But it is based upon unchallenged facts."

   "Drug traffickers and criminal organizations have combined efforts to work
   across borders, unravel government structures, and make large profits from
   diverse, illegal activity," he said.  "The near-term result:  schools,
   media and candidates all controlled by criminal organizations. In other
   words, total anarchy."

   Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-Ohio), a supporter of the bill, said the situation is
   "an issue of national security.

   "The drug trafficking organization is out of control," Schmidt said.

   Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) said the Enhanced Border Security Act
   "really tells the situation like it is."

   "I believe that the drug cartels are acting within the federal definition
   of terrorism, which basically says to intimidate a civilian population or
   government by extortion, kidnapping or assassination.  That is precisely,
   precisely what the drug cartels do.  They extort," he said.

   But Rep. Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.), the ranking Democrat on the subcommittee,
   disagreed.  While he offered his support for the aims of Mack's bill,
   Engel argued the Mexican drug cartels are not operating within the legal
   definition of terrorism as to advance political aims.

   "I agree with you that Mexicans are terrorized," said Engel.  "If I were
   living in a place where gun battles were leaving scores of people dead and
   previously safe streets were now hideouts for thugs and criminals, I would
   feel a sense of terror, too."

   However, Engel said, "There is a difference between acts which can cause
   terror and terrorist acts."

   He said what's happening in Mexico is "narco-crime" and not terrorism.

   "If we get the cause of the disease wrong, our treatment will be wrong as
   well," he said.  "The narco-criminals in Mexico have no political aims,
   they are brutal outlaws who want money, but they don't want to throw out
   the government and take over."

   H.R. 3401 defines terrorist insurgency as, "the protracted use of
   irregular warfare, including extreme displays of public violence utilized
   by transnational criminal organizations to influence public opinion and to
   undermine government control and rule of law in order to increase the
   control and influence of the organizations."

   The National Counterterrorism Center of the United States defines
   terrorism as "premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated
   against noncombatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents."

   "They decapitate people on a daily basis.  They burn people alive.  Throw
   people in acid baths," said McCaul.  "If that's not intimidation, if
   that's not terrorizing a civilian population, I don't know what is."

   Engel also objected to the bill because he said it would supplant funding
   for a counterinsurgency strategy from the State Department's Merida
   Initiative, a partnership with Mexico designed to to "fight organized
   crime and associated violence while furthering respect for human rights
   and the rule of law."

   Since 2008, Congress has allocated $1.6 billion to fund Merida to support
   Mexico's implementation of comprehensive justice sector reforms, provide
   eight Bell helicopters to the Mexican Army/Air Force, three UH-60M Black
   Hawk helicopters to the Federal Police, and three UH-60M Black Hawk
   helicopters to the Mexican and provide scanners, X-ray machines, and
   inspection equipment for Mexican checkpoints and airports, according to
   the State Department.

   Despite Merida's efforts, Rep. Schmidt said -- "I don't think it is
   working."

   Since 2006, 34,600 people have died as a result of Mexican drug cartel
   violence, the U.S. government reported in January though the number is now
   believed to be much higher.

   Bags of cocaine, heroin, and other narcotics seized by the U.S. Coast
   Guard. (AP Photo.)

   "50,000 Mexican people have been killed, brutally, at the hands of these
   drug cartels, more than the American deaths in Iraq and Afghanistan,
   combined," McCaul said, "And yet we're going to sit back and say that this
   is, these are just businessmen operating with mergers and acquisitions,
   they're just driven by profit. They are driven by profit, but they are
   also driven by evil."

   "I don't think we can stand back blindly and not call it what it is," he
   added.

   Engel argued Merida is now moving into its second phase to "focus more on
   training and support for the judiciary and accountability."  He said, "The
   distrust and prickliness that once pervaded the relationship between the
   U.S. and Mexico has been replaced by trust and cooperation," through the
   program.

   "I feel this bill returns to the era where Congress dictates policy and
   expects Mexico to toe the line," Engel said.

   But Schmidt, who said the current policy is woefully lacking, believes it
   is missing the counterinsurgency strategy.

   "The problem with the administration's new proposal, the Beyond Merida, is
   that it fails to recognize that today's drug cartels (are) transnational
   drug organizations," she said.

   The act's counterinsurgency strategy would outline the transnational
   criminal organizations in Mexico, provide an assessment of the terrain,
   population, ports, financial centers, and income-generating activities of
   the cartels, assess the capabilities of Mexico's federal law enforcement
   and coordinate with relevant federal agencies to address the operations of
   the cartels within the United States.
   http://cnsnews.com/news/article/republicans-propose-bill-treat-mexican-drug-cartels-terrorist-insurgency
</description>
    <date>2011-12-16 22:21:06</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1950233_-tactical-fw-fwd-republicans-propose-bill-to-treat-mexican.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1951834</id>
    <title>[CT] FW: Security Advice Services &amp; Mohammed Haroun
</title>
    <description>   *
   from TrapWire

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness [mailto:michael.maness@abraxasapps.com]
   Sent: Monday, January 17, 2011 4:09 PM
   To: Fred Burton
   Subject: RE: Security Advice Services &amp; Mohammed Haroun

   No, sure don't.  

    

   FYI: Shortly after the hit I was contacted by an Arab firm querying if our
   system might be able to help them avoid a similar Israeli op in the future
   by detecting the pre-op sureillance  Clever...but we declined.

    

    

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Monday, January 17, 2011 3:48 PM
   To: Michael Maness
   Subject: Security Advice Services &amp; Mohammed Haroun

    

    Mike - Know anything about Haroun or his company?  Thanks

    

    

    http://www.thenational.ae/news/for-those-who-mean-us-harm-there-is-no-place-left-to-hide

       01/17/2011 05:54 PM
       An Eye for an Eye
       The Anatomy of Mossad's Dubai Operation
       http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,druck-739908,00.html

       In the spring of 1989, a Palestinian terrorist murdered an Israeli
       soldier. Twenty years later in Dubai, the Israeli secret service
       agency Mossad avenged the killing. The operation succeeded, but
       nevertheless has become a fiasco. SPIEGEL has reconstructed the
       attack. By SPIEGEL Staff

       He knew that he was a dead man. From the moment he shot the Israeli
       soldier sitting on the car seat behind him in the face, he knew that
       they would get him sooner or later.

       For Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, it would take 20 years for that day to come.
       At about noon on Jan. 20, 2010, employees at the Al Bustan Rotana
       airport hotel in Dubai opened the door of room 230 to find the body of
       a man on the bed. According to the death certificate, the cause of
       death was "brain hemorrhage."

       At the time, no one knew who exactly the dead man was. Mabhouh was
       considered to be the chief weapons negotiator for Hamas, the
       Palestinian organization's main contact to Tehran and the logistician
       behind rocket attacks on Israel coming from the Gaza Strip.

       A man with a pedigree like that doesn't die of a brain hemorrhage. In
       fact, al-Mabhouh became a marked man long ago.

       MONDAY, JAN. 18, 2010

       More than 100,000 passengers arrive at Dubai International Airport
       every day. The emirate has become a popular vacation spot for those
       seeking a respite from winter in the northern hemisphere. The
       temperatures are summery, the hotels first-class and the shopping
       malls legendary. But the 27 passengers who arrived in the space of
       several hours on flights from various European cities had not come to
       Dubai to go shopping or for a winter break. Instead, they had a
       mission to fulfill.

       Twelve of them had British passports, six had Irish passports, four
       each had French and Australian passports, and one had a German
       passport, issued to a Michael Bodenheimer by a registration office in
       Cologne.

       Most of these 27 people were members of an elite unit of the Mossad,
       the Israeli intelligence agency, assigned to the riskiest missions,
       and to do work involving sabotage, espionage and assassinations. This
       elite unit is called "Caesarea," named after the ancient city in
       Palestine where a few leaders of the second Jewish insurrection
       against Rome were martyred.

       The 27 people were waiting for another man, someone they knew was a
       dead man.

       A few members of the Caesarea team had already been in Dubai earlier,
       in February, March and June of 2009, to observe "Plasma Screen," their
       code name for Mabhouh. They wanted to be sure that they were targeting
       the right man. During their previous visits, they also familiarized
       themselves with the door locks used in various hotels.

       Key Storylines

       In July 1973, a Mossad commando unit had murdered a Moroccan waiter in
       the Norwegian city of Lillehammer, acting on the erroneous assumption
       that he was a terrorist with the Palestinian Liberation Organization
       (PLO). Several agents were sent to prison, and Israel paid
       compensation to the man's surviving dependents. The agency's
       reputation suffered as a result of the incident, and Mossad leaders
       were determined not to allow anything like it to happen again.

       Perhaps the choice of the code name for Mabhouh was likewise a
       mistake. After all, images of the "Plasma Screen" operation were soon
       flickering across thousands of flat-screen TVs around the world. At
       first, many questions remained unanswered and many details unresolved.
       One year later, after investigations in the United Arab Emirates
       (UAE), Israel, the United States and Europe, and after interviews were
       conducted with several participants, police officers and intelligence
       agencies, SPIEGEL is now able to reconstruct the key storylines that
       intersected in Dubai between Jan. 18 and 20, 2010.

       One of these storylines is the German one. Michael Bodenheimer, who
       landed in Dubai at 12:14 a.m. on Jan. 19, had planned his arrival long
       before. The story of how he got his passport can be reconstructed with
       great precision. It's an important story, because it demonstrates that
       the Mossad was in fact behind what happened in the ensuing few hours.

       On Sunday, March 29, 2009, two men arrived in Cologne on a Lufthansa
       flight from Tel Aviv. The men sought to avoid all contact with each
       other. They sat in different rows and waited in different lines at
       passport control. The men, according to their papers, were Alexander
       Varin and Michael Bodenheimer.

       False Names, False Addresses

       Varin and Bodenheimer had an appointment with a Cologne attorney the
       next morning. Varin, who referred to himself as a "crisis consultant,"
       already knew the attorney, who had petitioned for German citizenship
       on behalf Michael's father, Hans Bodenheimer, allegedly a victim of
       the Nazi regime. Under the German constitution, those persecuted by
       the Nazis, as well as their children and grandchildren, can petition
       for repatriation.

       The Israelis told the German attorney that Bodenheimer was born on
       July 14, 1967, in the Israeli village of Liman on the Lebanese border.
       The information was apparently false. No one in Liman knows a man
       named Bodenheimer. He also told the attorney that his last address
       prior to his move to Germany was in the Israeli city of Herzliya, in a
       four-story building at Yad Harutzim Street 7. There is an upscale
       kitchen design store on the ground floor of the building.

       But the address also proved to be false. The name "Michael
       Budenheimer" appears among 19 names on a blue panel in the lobby. The
       name "Top Office" appears at the top of the panel.

       According to its website, Top Office provides "virtual offices," among
       other services. "Have your company name displayed on the entrance
       sign," the site promises. When a SPIEGEL representative called Top
       Office, the woman answering the phone said her name was Iris, but she
       was unwilling to provide a surname. When the name Bodenheimer was
       mentioned, she ended the conversation. Two days later, the names
       "Michael Budenheimer" and "Top Office" had been removed from the panel
       in the lobby of the office building in Herzliya.

       In Cologne, the German attorney filed the necessary documents in March
       2009. When Bodenheimer and Varin returned three months later and
       checked into a Cologne hotel, the next mistake was made: Alexander
       Varin checked in under a different name, "Uri Brodsky." But he
       continued to use his old name, Alexander Varin, with the attorney.
       Confusing two different identities was an inexcusable mistake, and
       investigators with the German federal criminal police agency, the BKA,
       would quickly discover later that it was one and the same man using
       both names.

       On June 17, 2009, Bodenheimer, in an effort to bolster his German
       identity, rented a small apartment at Eigelstein 85, in a rundown
       neighborhood near the main train station in Cologne. He told the
       landlord that he was a coach for a triathlon team, and he paid his
       rent in cash.

       On June 18, 2009, Bodenheimer picked up his new German passport. He
       was now a citizen.

       Seven months later, on Jan. 19, 2010, Bodenheimer was standing at the
       airport in Dubai. He and his fellow team members had been told a week
       earlier that their victim would arrive in Dubai the next day. Although
       they didn't know which hotel the man would check into, they did know
       that he would not be checking out again.

       Everything was in place. All they had to do now was wait for their
       victim.

       Tuesday, Jan. 19, 2010, Early Morning
       Mabhouh was on his way to the international airport in Damascus. As a
       VIP, he had his driver take him to a back entrance of the terminal,
       and he was able to wait in the lounge while his luggage was being
       checked and his passport stamped. Mabhouh was traveling alone.

       The previous spring, he had given and interview to Al-Jazeera, the
       Arab-language news network, about the murder of two Israeli soldiers
       in 1989. The station had disguised Mabhouh's face, but the Mossad had
       no trouble identifying his voice.

       The Hamas agent described, in great detail, how he and an accomplice
       had dressed as Orthodox Jews and how, in the spring of 1989, they had
       kidnapped, killed and buried the two soldiers Avi Sasportas and Ilan
       Saadon. They had trampled on the bodies and photographed themselves in
       the process. When asked whether he regretted the killings, Mabhouh
       said that he only regretted not having shot the second Israeli in the
       face. But unfortunately, he added, he had been sitting at the wheel of
       the car.

       "Red Page" is the Mossad's code name for an order to kill someone.
       Each of these orders is jointly authorized by the Israeli prime
       minister and defense minister. "Red Pages" do not have to be executed
       right away. In fact, they have no expiration date, and the orders
       remain valid until they are expressly cancelled.

       As reported in a recent article on the Dubai attack in the US
       lifestyle magazine GQ, Mabhouh received his "Red Page" back in 1989.
       The Israelis don't take kindly to the kidnapping or murder of one of
       their soldiers in uniform.

       Mabhouh Planned Murders

       Mabhouh was born in the Jabaliya refugee camp in the Gaza Strip in
       1960. His name means "the hoarse one." He joined the Muslim
       Brotherhood as a young man, and he was there when the Islamist mob
       began laying waste to the Palestinian coffeehouses that maintained
       gambling operations.

       In the late 1980s, the Israeli occupying forces caught him with a
       Kalashnikov in his luggage and he was sentenced to a year in prison.
       He said that he was tortured in prison.

       After his release, Mabhouh joined the military wing of the recently
       established Islamist movement Hamas. It was the period of the first
       Intifada, when most Palestinians were fighting the Israeli occupiers
       with slingshots and Molotov cocktails. Mabhouh planned murders.

       In 1988, he was placed in command of Hamas's "Unit 101." The
       kidnapping and murder of the two Israeli soldiers in the Negev Desert
       was enough proof for Hamas that Mabhouh was the right man for the job.

       Mabhouh hid in the Gaza Strip for the first few months after the
       killings, and then he fled to Egypt. The government in Cairo initially
       contemplated putting him on trial or extraditing him to Israel, but
       fearing that this could trigger an uprising by the Muslim Brotherhood,
       it decided to deport the Hamas agent to Libya instead.

       Escaping Death

       Later on, Mabhouh went to Jordan, where he developed a Hamas base from
       which he smuggled weapons into the Palestinian West Bank and planned
       attacks against Israeli tourists. He was expelled from the country in
       1995, just as the entire Hamas leadership would later be expelled.
       Mabhouh moved to Damascus, where he established contact with the
       Iranian Revolutionary Guards.

       He obtained money and rockets in Iran, and he collected donations in
       the Gulf States to fund terrorist attacks during the second Intifada.
       Until then, Hamas had waged its war against Israel with unguided
       short-range rockets, but under Mabhouh's leadership Hamas was able to
       fire longer-range missiles into the Gaza Strip.

       In February 2009, Mabhouh narrowly escaped death when an Israeli drone
       attacked a convoy he was traveling with in Sudan. The trucks were
       presumably loaded with Iranian Fajr rockets.

       Hamas and Iran -- hardly anyone embodied Israel's two enemies to the
       degree that Mahmoud al-Mabhouh did. It was time to turn the "Red
       Page."

       Mabhouh was constantly traveling between China, Iran, Syria, Sudan and
       the UAE. The Mossad agents decided that Dubai was the best place for
       an assassination. The city is open to tourists and businesspeople, and
       gaining entry with a Western passport is unproblematic.
       A first assassination attempt failed in November 2009. A Caesarea
       commando unit had tried to kill Mabhouh, possibly with poison that had
       been smeared onto light switches and fixtures in his hotel room. The
       victim fell ill, but he survived. The agents vowed that the next time
       they would not leave Dubai until they could verify Mabhouh's death
       with their own eyes.

       At 1:10 a.m. on Jan. 19, 2010, the last two Caesarea agents, Gail
       Folliard and Kevin Daveron, landed in Dubai on a flight from Paris.
       Together with Peter Elvinger, who had flown in from Zurich, they
       formed the operations unit.

       Tuesday, Jan. 19, 2010, Late Morning
       Unlike other intelligence agencies, the Mossad cannot provide its
       agents with real passports corresponding to a false identity. The
       primary countries in which it operates have no diplomatic relations
       with Israel. Even the most harmless-seeming tourists would be detained
       upon arrival if they were traveling on an Israeli passport. Instead,
       the Mossad usually uses the passports of Israelis with dual
       citizenship or forged passports from other countries.

       Peter Elvinger and the members of his team checked into various
       hotels. All of their passports, with the exception of the German
       passport, were forged. They were operating like avatars, using stolen
       identities. The real people whose names were being used would later
       testify that they had been completely unaware of the operation.

       The first part of the operation had succeeded. The Caesarea commando
       unit had put itself into position, safely and unnoticed. Elvinger and
       his team members paid their hotel expenses in cash or with prepaid
       money cards issued by Payoneer, a US company. This would prove to be a
       mistake in the "Plasma Screen" operation.

       Because the Payoneer cards used by most of the 27 members of the
       commando unit are relatively rare in Dubai, investigators later
       managed to narrow down their list of suspects relatively quickly. The
       CEO of Payoneer, Yuval Tal, is a former member of an elite unit in the
       Israeli army.

       The Same Contact Numbers

       The commando unit made a second mistake when its members used
       intermediaries in Austria to communicate with one another. Under the
       system an agent would call a number in Vienna to be connected to
       another agent's mobile phone.

       Although this was done to conceal calls, the system had a drawback. As
       soon as investigators had obtained the call list of one suspect, they
       could easily determine who else was using the same contact numbers in
       Austria.

       Both the use of the prepaid cards and the telephone server in Vienna
       were not mistakes that would jeopardize the entire operation. But they
       would make it more difficult for the team members to cover their
       tracks. Furthermore, the UAE is not one of the so-called "base
       countries," where Mossad agents in trouble can take refuge in an
       Israeli embassy or get help from the intelligence agencies of Israel's
       allies.

       The Emirates are referred to as a "target country" in intelligence
       jargon. If an agent's cover is blown there, he or she could face
       torture or even the death penalty. Given the risk, why were the
       Caesarea team members so careless?

       Underestimating Dubai

       They underestimated Dubai, and they underestimated a man whose office
       is on the sixth floor of the headquarters of the Dubai Police, about
       three kilometers (1.9 miles) from room 230 at the Al Bustan.

       Lieutenant General Dahi Khalfan Tamim is not a man who cares much for
       diplomacy. He is a gruff cop with a biting sense of humor and
       possessing the kind of self-confidence government officials have who
       enjoy the full support of their superiors. Tamim has only one
       superior: the ruler of Dubai, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum.

       At 19, Tamim graduated from the Royal Police Academy in Amman, Jordan,
       the most respected police academy in the Arab world. Ten years later,
       in 1980, he was appointed police chief of Dubai. Since then, the
       emirate has boomed more than almost any other part of the world.
       Lieutenant General Tamim's job has been to ensure that Dubai's boom
       could move forward without significant crime problems.

       Planes take off and land by the minute in front of the plate-glass
       window in Tamim's office. Dubai is in a central location, roughly
       equidistant from Iran, Iraq, Yemen and Afghanistan. There are more
       Iranians and Pakistanis living there than natives of Dubai; the city
       has attracted hundreds of thousands of migrants from some of the
       world's most explosive regions. People are constantly coming and
       going, large amounts of money are at stake, and the Islamic banking
       system is a nightmare for any police detective. Tamim knows that Dubai
       has everything it takes to become the region's crime hub -- and he has
       made it his mission to prevent that from happening.

       He has purchased the best available hardware and software in the
       United States. Government funding for surveillance systems is
       unlimited in the UAE, and to make things even easier for the police,
       no one worries about data privacy.
       Not Even a Proxy War

       "We know," he says, "that many Israelis come here with non-Israeli
       passports, and we treat them the way we treat anyone else. We protect
       their lives just as we protect the lives of others, and we don't
       concern ourselves with their religion. But we also don't want Dubai to
       become a third-party country where Israelis kill Palestinians."

       Tamim sees police work as a craft. Ideologues of all stripes -- Arabs,
       Marxists, Islamists -- disgust him. "If I were a Palestinian," he
       says, "I wouldn't support Fatah or Hamas."

       There is no topic Tamim finds more interesting than Israel. The
       country that dealt such a devastating blow to the Arabs in 1967. That
       year, Tamim's 16th, is a benchmark for him. "The Jews resemble us much
       more closely, in terms of religion, language and many other respects,
       than the Europeans or the Americans," he says.

       He says he even understands that the Jews must defend themselves, says
       Tamim, pointing out that millions of them were murdered in Europe.
       "(Former Egyptian President Gamal Abdel) Nasser said that he intended
       to drive them into the sea," he says. "Okay, then they had a right to
       fight back. But today? We don't want war."

       Not even a proxy war, and certainly not one outside his office door.

       Tuesday, Jan. 19, 2010, Afternoon
       Mabhouh arrived in Dubai on Emirates flight EK 912 from Damascus. He
       handed the immigration control officer a Palestinian passport in the
       name of Mahmoud Abd al-Rauf Mohammed Hassan, which stated his
       profession as "merchant." At least that was correct.

       A Mossad team had expected Mabhouh at the terminal and notified the
       others, who then followed him to the hotel. The Al Bustan, part of a
       group called "The Leading Hotels of the World," is especially popular
       among transit passengers who need a place to stay after a late-night
       arrival.

       Travelers are constantly pulling their trolley cases across the
       polished marble floors in the lobby, where noise is drowned out by the
       sound of water in the fountains or muted by thick carpeting. The rooms
       on the second floor are off a narrow hallway with only one access
       point, making the area easy to secure and the perfect place to commit
       a crime.

       Two agents carrying tennis rackets and with towels thrown over their
       shoulders had been waiting in the lobby since 2:12 p.m.

       Tamim would later explain that this was their most glaring mistake,
       because, as he says, no real tennis player walks around with his
       tennis racket out of its case.
       He Knew He Was a Target

       Mohammed Haroun, a Palestinian businessman with a German passport,
       installed the security cameras at the Al Bustan Rotana. "It's funny
       that the suspects believed that they could hide under a cap," says
       Haroun, the head of Security Advice Services. "But I know where and at
       what angle to install the cameras."
       The security camera images show Mabhouh looking around as he checks in
       at the front desk. He looked over his shoulder as he walked out of the
       elevator onto the second floor. He knew that he was a target of one of
       the world's most effective intelligence agencies. He didn't seem
       overly concerned about the two tennis players sharing the elevator
       with him.

       When Mabhouh, an unobtrusive, rotund man with a moustache, stepped out
       of the elevator, he had five hours left to live.

       The two tennis players noted Mabhouh's room number, 230, a non-smoking
       room, and sent it to Elvinger in a text message. They also sent him
       the number of the room across the hall, 237, and Elvinger promptly
       called the hotel to reserve the room. Then he booked his return
       flight, to Zu:rich via Doha.

       One of the cameras in front of the hotel recorded the mirror image of
       a white delivery van with tinted windows. A few of the agents walked
       to the vehicle but then turned around abruptly. They had apparently
       mistaken it for a vehicle being driven by an accomplice.

       A Borrowed Name

       This would put the investigators on the trail of a 62-year-old British
       citizen named Christopher Lockwood. According to the Wall Street
       Journal, Lockwood had his name changed in 1994 from the name he was
       using at the time, Yehuda Lustig. But that name, the Journal
       discovered, also proved to be false, a name borrowed from a young
       soldier killed in the 1973 Yom Kippur War.

       At 4:23 p.m., Mabhouh left the Al Bustan. Coincidentally, a Mossad
       agent was going the same way.

       Despite their subsequent eagerness to show off their achievements, the
       Dubai police have had little to say about what Mabhouh was doing in
       the four hours before returning to the hotel. "As far as I know,"
       Tamim said at the time, "he had a ticket to China and then on to Sudan
       -- or the other way around. He may have made a stopover here to
       unwind."

       For a man like Mabhouh, unwinding might include discussing an arms
       deal for the Gaza Strip, one of the world's most explosive pieces of
       real estate. According to Israeli sources, Mabhouh met with a banker
       who had already helped him with a number of international arms deals
       in the past, as well as with his usual contact with the Iranian
       Revolutionary Guards, who had flown to Dubai to coordinate two major
       shipments of weapons for Hamas in the coming months. It is
       understandable that the police chief in Dubai prefers not to discuss
       the issue. Although the UAE has pledged to strictly comply with
       international sanctions against Iran, implementation is another story.
       Iran is nearby, and there is a powerful Iranian community in Dubai.

       Tuesday, Jan. 19, 2010, Evening
       The actual kill-team entered the hotel at 6:34 p.m. There were two
       pairs of agents, all four of them broad-shouldered men wearing
       baseball caps and carrying backpacks and shopping bags. The two
       reconnaissance teams already in the Al Bustan were withdrawn, to avoid
       attracting attention, and replaced with two others. One of the teams
       was disguised as British tourists wearing sun hats.

       At 8 p.m., the six agents took up their positions in the hallway
       outside Mabhouh's room. A specialist manipulated the electronic lock
       to the door of room 230 so that the key card from the room across the
       hall would also work.

       Gail Folliard and Kevin Daveron were assigned to secure the hallway.
       Both had already changed into new disguises at other hotels in the
       area, and both were wearing wigs. Daveron was wearing a false
       moustache and the uniform worn by Al Bustan employees. Just as the
       agents were working with the door lock, a man walked into the hallway,
       unable to find his room. Daveron, posing as a hotel employee, managed
       to divert the man away from the hallway.

       At 8:24 p.m., Mabhouh returned to the hotel through the revolving door
       in the lobby. Carrying a plastic bag with new shoes, he took the
       elevator to the second floor. He didn't notice the man with the
       moustache, wearing a hotel uniform, or the woman in the dark wig who
       had been pacing back and forth across the patterned brown carpeting
       for half an hour.

       Under the Mattress

       Mabhouh went into his room. It is unlikely that his encounter with the
       four killers waiting behind the door lasted very long. The only signs
       of a struggle were the few broken slats of the bed frame that were
       later found under the mattress.

       While preparing for the operation, the team had agreed that they
       wanted Mabhouh's death to look as natural as possible. Anything else
       would have resulted in a massive police effort. The airport would have
       been closed, making it impossible for the commando unit to safely
       leave the country.
       The investigative report states that the victim was injected with
       succinylcholine, a drug that causes muscle paralysis in less than a
       minute. Mabhouh was then suffocated with a pillow, according to the
       investigators.

       The truth is that it is still unclear how exactly the Hamas officer
       was killed. Succinylcholine is easily detected in the body of a dead
       person, and the injection site should also be visible. And as anyone
       familiar with TV crime dramas knows, violent suffocation produces
       clear marks in the face, including areas of compression, tiny burst
       blood vessels in the pupils and cracked lips.

       It is hard to imagine that a technically sophisticated intelligence
       agency like the Mossad would resort to such simple methods -- and
       certainly not in an operation on hostile territory.

       By 8:46 p.m., the first two perpetrators were standing in front of the
       elevator that would take them down to the lobby. In the videos taken
       with the security cameras, it seems obvious that the men are pumped up
       with adrenaline, as they shift their weight back and forth, from one
       foot to the other, like boxers. One is still wearing a rubber glove,
       unusual for a hotel guest.

       On a Plane to Paris

       The members of the team left the Al Bustan in groups of two and took
       taxis to the airport. Folliard left the hotel holding the arm of
       another agent and with a plastic bag in her left hand.

       Daveron secured the elevator. He was the last to leave room 237,
       talking on his mobile phone and pulling his trolley case behind him.

       A short time later, Daveron and Folliard were sitting on a plane to
       Paris, while two others were on a flight to South Africa. The body of
       "Plasma Screen" had not yet been discovered and was still lying in
       room 230.

       Everything had gone according to plan, at least up to that point. It
       would take almost a week before Tamim learned of the death of the
       senior Hamas weapons negotiators, who was killed practically within
       view of police headquarters.

       JAN. 24 or 25, 2010

       The Hamas leadership in Damascus noticed that something was wrong when
       it didn't hear from Mabhouh. A man who had worked for Mabhouh was sent
       to the morgue in Dubai. After that, Hamas officials put in a call to
       Dubai police headquarters from Damascus. Yes, they admitted, they had
       allowed one of their senior members to travel to Dubai under a false
       passport, and they had neglected to notify Tamim, the super cop, in
       advance, and now something had gone wrong, very wrong.

       According to eyewitnesses, Tamim then flew into a rage and shouted
       into the phone: "You can pack up yourselves and your bank accounts and
       your weapons and your fake passports and get out of my country."

       Tamim had a problem. Despite being equipped with the most
       sophisticated surveillance system in the Arab world, he had no idea
       that an Israeli commando operation had been executed successfully in
       Dubai, under his very eyes. He had been blind.

       This explains his fit of rage. And it also explains the massive
       investigation he was now ordering his troops to undertake. He may have
       been unable to prevent the killing, but now, at least, he would get
       his revenge, in the form of the investigation. And he would ensure
       that the investigation itself would become a personal triumph --
       Lieutenant General Tamim, the supercop of Dubai.

       Tamim had his team compile a list of everyone who had entered the
       country shortly before the killing and left soon afterwards. The names
       were compared with those of people who had traveled to Dubai in
       February, March, June and November 2009, the months in which Mabhouh
       was also there.

       Some Hollywood Film
       The names on this list, in turn, were compared with the hotel guest
       lists and the videos taken by well over 1,000 surveillance cameras.
       Tamim had the surveillance systems of hotels, malls and the airport
       analyzed. The process soon yielded an image corresponding to every
       name on his passenger and hotel guest lists, so that he was now able
       to compare the images with the Al Bustan security camera videos.

       The other members of the commando unit were identified once Tamim's
       agents had analyzed the Payoneer payments and the conspicuous calls to
       the numbers in Austria.

       All of this took much longer than the "24 hours" Tamim mentioned in
       his first press conference. Nevertheless, it did enable him to portray
       the Mossad operation like some Hollywood film.

       Two Palestinians were also arrested in Jordan and extradited to Dubai.
       Anwar Shaibar and Ahmed Hassanain, men believed to be associated with
       the Palestinian Fatah movement, had allegedly helped the team book
       hotel rooms and reserve rental cars. Investigators later changed their
       assessment of the Palestinians, concluding that Hamas had fabricated
       the story to implicate its political rivals in the case.

       At first, Tamim had refused to believe that the Mossad had conducted
       an operation on his doorstep. "We thought, until the very last minute,
       that another Palestinian group had killed him," says Tamim. "We never
       thought of the Mossad. Only after we had gathered together all the
       faces and all the disguises on the surveillance images did we realize
       that they weren't Palestinians -- that they couldn't be."

       Friday, Jan. 29, 2010
       Mahmoud Mabhouh was buried in Yarmuk, a Palestinian neighborhood in
       Damascus.

       Tamim had assembled most of the parts in his puzzle. He notified his
       superior, the emir. And in an interview with Al Jazeera, he said that
       he could not rule out the possibility of the Mossad being involved in
       the murder. The Reuters news agency also reported Mabhouh's death as a
       murder, but the news attracted little attention. Only a few people
       recognized the story's potential.

       SUNDAY, JAN. 30, 2010, EVENING

       At a reception, US Ambassador Richard Olson asked UAE Foreign Minister
       Abdullah Bin Zayed about the murder at the Al Bustan. After making a
       few phone calls, Zayed decided that the matter was important enough to
       be brought to the attention of his superiors.

       The two de facto rulers of the United Arab Emirates, Crown Prince
       Mohammed Bin Zayed of Abu Dhabi and Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al
       Maktoum, the prime minister and ruler of Dubai, debated on how to
       proceed in the case. They concluded that they could do nothing or they
       could "disclose more or less everything the investigations had
       uncovered."

       The two sheikhs chose the second option.

       MONDAY, FEB. 15, 2010

       It was time for Tamim to take his revenge. The police chief appeared
       before the press, holding up a piece of paper with the photos and
       names, against a red background, of 11 murder suspects. But that
       wasn't all. A triumph has to be placed in context, and timing is
       critical.

       Tamim presented the international press with the video footage
       documenting the crime.
       He had already solved a spectacular jewelry heist at the Wafi Mall in
       2007, secured the conviction of Egyptian real estate tycoon Hisham
       Talaat Moustafa, a friend of President Hosni Mubarak, for the murder
       of a Lebanese singer in 2008 and, in 2009, had solved the murder of
       Chechen warlord Sulim Yamadayev. But his film about the Mossad
       assassination of Mahmoud Al Mabhouh was the highpoint of his career.
       Dahi Khalfan Tamim had made the Israelis look like fools.

       In the ensuing days, Tamim paid close attention to the impact of his
       appearances. He was ultimately praised and even celebrated, not only
       in the Emirates, but also in Iraq, Iran and the West -- and, in the
       end, in Israel. Tamim doesn't remember the name of the Israeli
       journalist who interviewed him via email, but he does know that he
       responded right away. "She was young," he says, "and very
       professional. The entire Israeli press, they all treated me very
       fairly." Tamim was pleased with the way things had turned out.

       WEDNESDAY, FEB. 24, 2010

       The lieutenant general sent a document to the central bank and the
       foreign ministry in Abu Dhabi, together with the request that the
       minister of state forward it to the US Embassy. The document read:

       "Excellency Sultan Al Suwiadi, UAE Central Bank Governor. Subject:
       Credit Cards MC 5115-2600-1600-6190, MC 5115-2600-1600-5317, MC
       5301-3800-3201-7106. General Management of the State Security offers
       greetings, and asks your Excellency to direct the money laundry and
       suspicious transactions unit at the Central Bank to urgently obtain
       details of the above credit cards, in addition to details for
       purchases, accounts, and payments on those cards, as the users of
       those cards were involved in the murder of Mahmoud Mabhouh. Those
       cards were issued by META BANK in the state of Iowa, USA. Thank you
       for your kind cooperation."

       On the same day, State Minister Mohammed Anwar Gargash delivered the
       letter from Dubai to the legal attache at the US Embassy in Abu Dhabi.
       Ambassador Olson forwarded the letter to Washington and requested that
       the matter be addressed promptly, noting that the issue had already
       been raised in a meeting between the foreign minister and US Secretary
       of State Hillary Clinton on the previous day. The Americans knew who
       had used the credit cards in question.

       All they had to do was ask the government in Tel Aviv.

       On June 4, 2010, almost exactly a year after the Mossad agent had been
       issued a German passport, Alexander Varin traveled to Warsaw. Coming
       from Tel Aviv and on his way to the Lithuanian capital Vilnius, he was
       merely changing planes in Warsaw. He showed the Polish border control
       agents his passport, which identified him as Uri Brodsky. An arrest
       warrant had been issued for a person by that name, following a request
       by the German federal prosecutor's office. Varin, aka Brodsky, was
       arrested.

       Investigators with Germany's BKA had painstakingly reconstructed
       Varin's flight routes. In the previous months, his travels had taken
       him to Austria, Lithuania, Latvia, Turkey and the Czech Republic, as
       well as several other places. Varin, a tall, heavy-set man, pulled a
       hood over his head when he was led into the Warsaw courtroom. He
       appeared to be a logistics expert of sorts for the Mossad in Europe,
       and he was outfitted with several identities. The Mossad had not known
       that the name Brodsky had already been used since the hotel stay in
       Cologne a year earlier. It was yet another mistake.

       The matter of his extradition, which the German courts were
       requesting, turned into a tough battle. The Israelis applied a great
       deal of pressure to the Polish government in order to prevent
       extradition. The Poles eventually found a Solomonic solution: Brodsky,
       aka Varin, would be extradited to Germany, but once there he could
       only be charged with a passport violation.

       Mossad Under Pressure

       When the Israeli was extradited on Aug. 12, 2010, the embassy hired
       two of the best and most expensive German attorneys. They paid the
       bail money of EUR100,000, and when Varin was released from detention
       on Aug. 13, he left Germany for Tel Aviv the same day. At the end of
       last year, a court in Cologne suspended the case in return for a
       EUR60,000 fine. It was a solution that all sides could live with, that
       is, if it weren't for the German arrest warrant against Varin, who was
       suspected of engaging in espionage. If Varin tried to enter Germany
       tomorrow, he would be taken into custody at the border.

       The operation in Dubai has put the Mossad under great pressure (even
       though the Israelis have yet to officially confirm that they had
       anything to do with the matter). The head of the Caesarea special unit
       offered his resignation, but it was not accepted. This was not the
       case with Meir Dagan, the head of the Mossad. Even though he had hoped
       for an extension of his term prior to the operation, Prime Minister
       Benjamin Netanyahu appointed a successor in the wake of the botched
       operation. Dagan left his office on Jan. 6, 2011.

       In a press conference, Tamim called for the resignation of Prime
       Minister Netanyahu and promised to pursue the culprits "until the end
       of time." That seems to be about the amount of time he will need.

       Nevertheless, most Israelis see the attack on Mabhouh as a success.
       "It is difficult to call the Dubai operation a failure," says Avi
       Issacharoff, an expert on the Arab world with the Israeli daily
       newspaper Ha'aretz. Although Israel's reputation has been harmed
       internationally, says Issacharoff, "the operational goal was achieved.
       Hamas has seen that it is vulnerable, and the attackers made it home
       unharmed." The Israelis will simply have to be more careful.

       Next time, that is.

       By Ronen Bergman, Christoph Schult, Alexander Smoltczyk, Holger Stark
       and Bernhard Zand

       Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan

        

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  <doc>
    <id>1951845</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] Spiegel on Dubai assassinatino
</title>
    <description>   *
   I've asked the TrapWire folks (ex-CIA) if they know Haroun or his
   company. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: ct-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:ct-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf
   Of Sean Noonan
   Sent: Monday, January 17, 2011 3:39 PM
   To: CT AOR
   Subject: Re: [CT] Spiegel on Dubai assassinatino
   Here's an old article about Haroun I don't remember seeing before:
   http://www.thenational.ae/news/for-those-who-mean-us-harm-there-is-no-place-left-to-hide

   Don't see much else. 

   They're all semites.  But how did Moses disguise himself amongst black
   Egyptians?
   On 1/17/11 3:29 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

     ** You may recall this was my initial theory.  The cameras were fed
     into a surveillance cp or mirrored to the Mossad contractor team. 
      
     *** What can we dig up on the Palestinian &amp; his security company? 
      
     -Security Advice Services, headed by Mohammed Haroun, a Palestinian
     businessman with a German passport, installed the camera's at al Bustan
     rotana (where mabhouh was killed)
     I also think he is saying that Moses was an Arab. 
      
     "The Jews resemble us much more closely, in terms of religion, language
     and many other respects, than the Europeans or the Americans," he says.
      

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Sean Noonan [mailto:sean.noonan@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Monday, January 17, 2011 1:57 PM
     To: burton@stratfor.com; CT AOR
     Subject: Re: [CT] Spiegel on Dubai assassinatino
     yeah the two parts I highlighted at the top.  also see what i bolded
     below.  Nothing major, but interesting background. 

     We may not know actual cause of death--now saying there isn't much
     evidence of strangling or Succinylcholine. 

     On 1/17/11 1:47 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

       Anything new?

       Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
       Sender: ct-bounces@stratfor.com
       Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2011 13:20:07 -0600
       To: CT AOR&lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;; mesa&lt;mesa@stratfor.com&gt;
       ReplyTo: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
       Subject: [CT] Spiegel on Dubai assassinatino
       Another very detailed article.  One of the writers is ronen Bergman,
       who wrote the GQ article. The main thing this adds is the details of
       the investigation from the Dubai end.   Also includes an interview
       with the Sheriff of Dubai, who actually sounds pretty smart in this
       piece.  This article calls him 'supercop of Dubai.'
       For example:
       "Tamim would later explain that this was their most glaring mistake,
       because, as he says, no real tennis player walks around with his
       tennis racket out of its case."
       -this is true for anyone who has money and plays tennis. 

       -Security Advice Services, headed by Mohammed Haroun, a Palestinian
       businessman with a German passport, installed the camera's at al
       Bustan rotana (where mabhouh was killed)
       01/17/2011 05:54 PM
       An Eye for an Eye
       The Anatomy of Mossad's Dubai Operation
       http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,druck-739908,00.html

       In the spring of 1989, a Palestinian terrorist murdered an Israeli
       soldier. Twenty years later in Dubai, the Israeli secret service
       agency Mossad avenged the killing. The operation succeeded, but
       nevertheless has become a fiasco. SPIEGEL has reconstructed the
       attack. By SPIEGEL Staff

       He knew that he was a dead man. From the moment he shot the Israeli
       soldier sitting on the car seat behind him in the face, he knew that
       they would get him sooner or later.

       For Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, it would take 20 years for that day to come.
       At about noon on Jan. 20, 2010, employees at the Al Bustan Rotana
       airport hotel in Dubai opened the door of room 230 to find the body of
       a man on the bed. According to the death certificate, the cause of
       death was "brain hemorrhage."

       At the time, no one knew who exactly the dead man was. Mabhouh was
       considered to be the chief weapons negotiator for Hamas, the
       Palestinian organization's main contact to Tehran and the logistician
       behind rocket attacks on Israel coming from the Gaza Strip.

       A man with a pedigree like that doesn't die of a brain hemorrhage. In
       fact, al-Mabhouh became a marked man long ago.

       MONDAY, JAN. 18, 2010

       More than 100,000 passengers arrive at Dubai International Airport
       every day. The emirate has become a popular vacation spot for those
       seeking a respite from winter in the northern hemisphere. The
       temperatures are summery, the hotels first-class and the shopping
       malls legendary. But the 27 passengers who arrived in the space of
       several hours on flights from various European cities had not come to
       Dubai to go shopping or for a winter break. Instead, they had a
       mission to fulfill.

       Twelve of them had British passports, six had Irish passports, four
       each had French and Australian passports, and one had a German
       passport, issued to a Michael Bodenheimer by a registration office in
       Cologne.

       Most of these 27 people were members of an elite unit of the Mossad,
       the Israeli intelligence agency, assigned to the riskiest missions,
       and to do work involving sabotage, espionage and assassinations. This
       elite unit is called "Caesarea," named after the ancient city in
       Palestine where a few leaders of the second Jewish insurrection
       against Rome were martyred.

       The 27 people were waiting for another man, someone they knew was a
       dead man.

       A few members of the Caesarea team had already been in Dubai earlier,
       in February, March and June of 2009, to observe "Plasma Screen," their
       code name for Mabhouh. They wanted to be sure that they were targeting
       the right man. During their previous visits, they also familiarized
       themselves with the door locks used in various hotels.

       Key Storylines

       In July 1973, a Mossad commando unit had murdered a Moroccan waiter in
       the Norwegian city of Lillehammer, acting on the erroneous assumption
       that he was a terrorist with the Palestinian Liberation Organization
       (PLO). Several agents were sent to prison, and Israel paid
       compensation to the man's surviving dependents. The agency's
       reputation suffered as a result of the incident, and Mossad leaders
       were determined not to allow anything like it to happen again.

       Perhaps the choice of the code name for Mabhouh was likewise a
       mistake. After all, images of the "Plasma Screen" operation were soon
       flickering across thousands of flat-screen TVs around the world. At
       first, many questions remained unanswered and many details unresolved.
       One year later, after investigations in the United Arab Emirates
       (UAE), Israel, the United States and Europe, and after interviews were
       conducted with several participants, police officers and intelligence
       agencies, SPIEGEL is now able to reconstruct the key storylines that
       intersected in Dubai between Jan. 18 and 20, 2010.

       One of these storylines is the German one. Michael Bodenheimer, who
       landed in Dubai at 12:14 a.m. on Jan. 19, had planned his arrival long
       before. The story of how he got his passport can be reconstructed with
       great precision. It's an important story, because it demonstrates that
       the Mossad was in fact behind what happened in the ensuing few hours.

       On Sunday, March 29, 2009, two men arrived in Cologne on a Lufthansa
       flight from Tel Aviv. The men sought to avoid all contact with each
       other. They sat in different rows and waited in different lines at
       passport control. The men, according to their papers, were Alexander
       Varin and Michael Bodenheimer.

       False Names, False Addresses

       Varin and Bodenheimer had an appointment with a Cologne attorney the
       next morning. Varin, who referred to himself as a "crisis consultant,"
       already knew the attorney, who had petitioned for German citizenship
       on behalf Michael's father, Hans Bodenheimer, allegedly a victim of
       the Nazi regime. Under the German constitution, those persecuted by
       the Nazis, as well as their children and grandchildren, can petition
       for repatriation.

       The Israelis told the German attorney that Bodenheimer was born on
       July 14, 1967, in the Israeli village of Liman on the Lebanese border.
       The information was apparently false. No one in Liman knows a man
       named Bodenheimer. He also told the attorney that his last address
       prior to his move to Germany was in the Israeli city of Herzliya, in a
       four-story building at Yad Harutzim Street 7. There is an upscale
       kitchen design store on the ground floor of the building.

       But the address also proved to be false. The name "Michael
       Budenheimer" appears among 19 names on a blue panel in the lobby. The
       name "Top Office" appears at the top of the panel.

       According to its website, Top Office provides "virtual offices," among
       other services. "Have your company name displayed on the entrance
       sign," the site promises. When a SPIEGEL representative called Top
       Office, the woman answering the phone said her name was Iris, but she
       was unwilling to provide a surname. When the name Bodenheimer was
       mentioned, she ended the conversation. Two days later, the names
       "Michael Budenheimer" and "Top Office" had been removed from the panel
       in the lobby of the office building in Herzliya.

       In Cologne, the German attorney filed the necessary documents in March
       2009. When Bodenheimer and Varin returned three months later and
       checked into a Cologne hotel, the next mistake was made: Alexander
       Varin checked in under a different name, "Uri Brodsky." But he
       continued to use his old name, Alexander Varin, with the attorney.
       Confusing two different identities was an inexcusable mistake, and
       investigators with the German federal criminal police agency, the BKA,
       would quickly discover later that it was one and the same man using
       both names.

       On June 17, 2009, Bodenheimer, in an effort to bolster his German
       identity, rented a small apartment at Eigelstein 85, in a rundown
       neighborhood near the main train station in Cologne. He told the
       landlord that he was a coach for a triathlon team, and he paid his
       rent in cash.

       On June 18, 2009, Bodenheimer picked up his new German passport. He
       was now a citizen.

       Seven months later, on Jan. 19, 2010, Bodenheimer was standing at the
       airport in Dubai. He and his fellow team members had been told a week
       earlier that their victim would arrive in Dubai the next day. Although
       they didn't know which hotel the man would check into, they did know
       that he would not be checking out again.

       Everything was in place. All they had to do now was wait for their
       victim.

       Tuesday, Jan. 19, 2010, Early Morning
       Mabhouh was on his way to the international airport in Damascus. As a
       VIP, he had his driver take him to a back entrance of the terminal,
       and he was able to wait in the lounge while his luggage was being
       checked and his passport stamped. Mabhouh was traveling alone.

       The previous spring, he had given and interview to Al-Jazeera, the
       Arab-language news network, about the murder of two Israeli soldiers
       in 1989. The station had disguised Mabhouh's face, but the Mossad had
       no trouble identifying his voice.

       The Hamas agent described, in great detail, how he and an accomplice
       had dressed as Orthodox Jews and how, in the spring of 1989, they had
       kidnapped, killed and buried the two soldiers Avi Sasportas and Ilan
       Saadon. They had trampled on the bodies and photographed themselves in
       the process. When asked whether he regretted the killings, Mabhouh
       said that he only regretted not having shot the second Israeli in the
       face. But unfortunately, he added, he had been sitting at the wheel of
       the car.

       "Red Page" is the Mossad's code name for an order to kill someone.
       Each of these orders is jointly authorized by the Israeli prime
       minister and defense minister. "Red Pages" do not have to be executed
       right away. In fact, they have no expiration date, and the orders
       remain valid until they are expressly cancelled.

       As reported in a recent article on the Dubai attack in the US
       lifestyle magazine GQ, Mabhouh received his "Red Page" back in 1989.
       The Israelis don't take kindly to the kidnapping or murder of one of
       their soldiers in uniform.

       Mabhouh Planned Murders

       Mabhouh was born in the Jabaliya refugee camp in the Gaza Strip in
       1960. His name means "the hoarse one." He joined the Muslim
       Brotherhood as a young man, and he was there when the Islamist mob
       began laying waste to the Palestinian coffeehouses that maintained
       gambling operations.

       In the late 1980s, the Israeli occupying forces caught him with a
       Kalashnikov in his luggage and he was sentenced to a year in prison.
       He said that he was tortured in prison.

       After his release, Mabhouh joined the military wing of the recently
       established Islamist movement Hamas. It was the period of the first
       Intifada, when most Palestinians were fighting the Israeli occupiers
       with slingshots and Molotov cocktails. Mabhouh planned murders.

       In 1988, he was placed in command of Hamas's "Unit 101." The
       kidnapping and murder of the two Israeli soldiers in the Negev Desert
       was enough proof for Hamas that Mabhouh was the right man for the job.

       Mabhouh hid in the Gaza Strip for the first few months after the
       killings, and then he fled to Egypt. The government in Cairo initially
       contemplated putting him on trial or extraditing him to Israel, but
       fearing that this could trigger an uprising by the Muslim Brotherhood,
       it decided to deport the Hamas agent to Libya instead.

       Escaping Death

       Later on, Mabhouh went to Jordan, where he developed a Hamas base from
       which he smuggled weapons into the Palestinian West Bank and planned
       attacks against Israeli tourists. He was expelled from the country in
       1995, just as the entire Hamas leadership would later be expelled.
       Mabhouh moved to Damascus, where he established contact with the
       Iranian Revolutionary Guards.

       He obtained money and rockets in Iran, and he collected donations in
       the Gulf States to fund terrorist attacks during the second Intifada.
       Until then, Hamas had waged its war against Israel with unguided
       short-range rockets, but under Mabhouh's leadership Hamas was able to
       fire longer-range missiles into the Gaza Strip.

       In February 2009, Mabhouh narrowly escaped death when an Israeli drone
       attacked a convoy he was traveling with in Sudan. The trucks were
       presumably loaded with Iranian Fajr rockets.

       Hamas and Iran -- hardly anyone embodied Israel's two enemies to the
       degree that Mahmoud al-Mabhouh did. It was time to turn the "Red
       Page."

       Mabhouh was constantly traveling between China, Iran, Syria, Sudan and
       the UAE. The Mossad agents decided that Dubai was the best place for
       an assassination. The city is open to tourists and businesspeople, and
       gaining entry with a Western passport is unproblematic.
       A first assassination attempt failed in November 2009. A Caesarea
       commando unit had tried to kill Mabhouh, possibly with poison that had
       been smeared onto light switches and fixtures in his hotel room. The
       victim fell ill, but he survived. The agents vowed that the next time
       they would not leave Dubai until they could verify Mabhouh's death
       with their own eyes.

       At 1:10 a.m. on Jan. 19, 2010, the last two Caesarea agents, Gail
       Folliard and Kevin Daveron, landed in Dubai on a flight from Paris.
       Together with Peter Elvinger, who had flown in from Zurich, they
       formed the operations unit.

       Tuesday, Jan. 19, 2010, Late Morning
       Unlike other intelligence agencies, the Mossad cannot provide its
       agents with real passports corresponding to a false identity. The
       primary countries in which it operates have no diplomatic relations
       with Israel. Even the most harmless-seeming tourists would be detained
       upon arrival if they were traveling on an Israeli passport. Instead,
       the Mossad usually uses the passports of Israelis with dual
       citizenship or forged passports from other countries.

       Peter Elvinger and the members of his team checked into various
       hotels. All of their passports, with the exception of the German
       passport, were forged. They were operating like avatars, using stolen
       identities. The real people whose names were being used would later
       testify that they had been completely unaware of the operation.

       The first part of the operation had succeeded. The Caesarea commando
       unit had put itself into position, safely and unnoticed. Elvinger and
       his team members paid their hotel expenses in cash or with prepaid
       money cards issued by Payoneer, a US company. This would prove to be a
       mistake in the "Plasma Screen" operation.

       Because the Payoneer cards used by most of the 27 members of the
       commando unit are relatively rare in Dubai, investigators later
       managed to narrow down their list of suspects relatively quickly. The
       CEO of Payoneer, Yuval Tal, is a former member of an elite unit in the
       Israeli army.

       The Same Contact Numbers

       The commando unit made a second mistake when its members used
       intermediaries in Austria to communicate with one another. Under the
       system an agent would call a number in Vienna to be connected to
       another agent's mobile phone.

       Although this was done to conceal calls, the system had a drawback. As
       soon as investigators had obtained the call list of one suspect, they
       could easily determine who else was using the same contact numbers in
       Austria.

       Both the use of the prepaid cards and the telephone server in Vienna
       were not mistakes that would jeopardize the entire operation. But they
       would make it more difficult for the team members to cover their
       tracks. Furthermore, the UAE is not one of the so-called "base
       countries," where Mossad agents in trouble can take refuge in an
       Israeli embassy or get help from the intelligence agencies of Israel's
       allies.

       The Emirates are referred to as a "target country" in intelligence
       jargon. If an agent's cover is blown there, he or she could face
       torture or even the death penalty. Given the risk, why were the
       Caesarea team members so careless?

       Underestimating Dubai

       They underestimated Dubai, and they underestimated a man whose office
       is on the sixth floor of the headquarters of the Dubai Police, about
       three kilometers (1.9 miles) from room 230 at the Al Bustan.

       Lieutenant General Dahi Khalfan Tamim is not a man who cares much for
       diplomacy. He is a gruff cop with a biting sense of humor and
       possessing the kind of self-confidence government officials have who
       enjoy the full support of their superiors. Tamim has only one
       superior: the ruler of Dubai, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum.

       At 19, Tamim graduated from the Royal Police Academy in Amman, Jordan,
       the most respected police academy in the Arab world. Ten years later,
       in 1980, he was appointed police chief of Dubai. Since then, the
       emirate has boomed more than almost any other part of the world.
       Lieutenant General Tamim's job has been to ensure that Dubai's boom
       could move forward without significant crime problems.

       Planes take off and land by the minute in front of the plate-glass
       window in Tamim's office. Dubai is in a central location, roughly
       equidistant from Iran, Iraq, Yemen and Afghanistan. There are more
       Iranians and Pakistanis living there than natives of Dubai; the city
       has attracted hundreds of thousands of migrants from some of the
       world's most explosive regions. People are constantly coming and
       going, large amounts of money are at stake, and the Islamic banking
       system is a nightmare for any police detective. Tamim knows that Dubai
       has everything it takes to become the region's crime hub -- and he has
       made it his mission to prevent that from happening.

       He has purchased the best available hardware and software in the
       United States. Government funding for surveillance systems is
       unlimited in the UAE, and to make things even easier for the police,
       no one worries about data privacy.
       Not Even a Proxy War

       "We know," he says, "that many Israelis come here with non-Israeli
       passports, and we treat them the way we treat anyone else. We protect
       their lives just as we protect the lives of others, and we don't
       concern ourselves with their religion. But we also don't want Dubai to
       become a third-party country where Israelis kill Palestinians."

       Tamim sees police work as a craft. Ideologues of all stripes -- Arabs,
       Marxists, Islamists -- disgust him. "If I were a Palestinian," he
       says, "I wouldn't support Fatah or Hamas."

       There is no topic Tamim finds more interesting than Israel. The
       country that dealt such a devastating blow to the Arabs in 1967. That
       year, Tamim's 16th, is a benchmark for him. "The Jews resemble us much
       more closely, in terms of religion, language and many other respects,
       than the Europeans or the Americans," he says.

       He says he even understands that the Jews must defend themselves, says
       Tamim, pointing out that millions of them were murdered in Europe.
       "(Former Egyptian President Gamal Abdel) Nasser said that he intended
       to drive them into the sea," he says. "Okay, then they had a right to
       fight back. But today? We don't want war."

       Not even a proxy war, and certainly not one outside his office door.

       Tuesday, Jan. 19, 2010, Afternoon
       Mabhouh arrived in Dubai on Emirates flight EK 912 from Damascus. He
       handed the immigration control officer a Palestinian passport in the
       name of Mahmoud Abd al-Rauf Mohammed Hassan, which stated his
       profession as "merchant." At least that was correct.

       A Mossad team had expected Mabhouh at the terminal and notified the
       others, who then followed him to the hotel. The Al Bustan, part of a
       group called "The Leading Hotels of the World," is especially popular
       among transit passengers who need a place to stay after a late-night
       arrival.

       Travelers are constantly pulling their trolley cases across the
       polished marble floors in the lobby, where noise is drowned out by the
       sound of water in the fountains or muted by thick carpeting. The rooms
       on the second floor are off a narrow hallway with only one access
       point, making the area easy to secure and the perfect place to commit
       a crime.

       Two agents carrying tennis rackets and with towels thrown over their
       shoulders had been waiting in the lobby since 2:12 p.m.

       Tamim would later explain that this was their most glaring mistake,
       because, as he says, no real tennis player walks around with his
       tennis racket out of its case.
       He Knew He Was a Target

       Mohammed Haroun, a Palestinian businessman with a German passport,
       installed the security cameras at the Al Bustan Rotana. "It's funny
       that the suspects believed that they could hide under a cap," says
       Haroun, the head of Security Advice Services. "But I know where and at
       what angle to install the cameras."
       The security camera images show Mabhouh looking around as he checks in
       at the front desk. He looked over his shoulder as he walked out of the
       elevator onto the second floor. He knew that he was a target of one of
       the world's most effective intelligence agencies. He didn't seem
       overly concerned about the two tennis players sharing the elevator
       with him.

       When Mabhouh, an unobtrusive, rotund man with a moustache, stepped out
       of the elevator, he had five hours left to live.

       The two tennis players noted Mabhouh's room number, 230, a non-smoking
       room, and sent it to Elvinger in a text message. They also sent him
       the number of the room across the hall, 237, and Elvinger promptly
       called the hotel to reserve the room. Then he booked his return
       flight, to Zu:rich via Doha.

       One of the cameras in front of the hotel recorded the mirror image of
       a white delivery van with tinted windows. A few of the agents walked
       to the vehicle but then turned around abruptly. They had apparently
       mistaken it for a vehicle being driven by an accomplice.

       A Borrowed Name

       This would put the investigators on the trail of a 62-year-old British
       citizen named Christopher Lockwood. According to the Wall Street
       Journal, Lockwood had his name changed in 1994 from the name he was
       using at the time, Yehuda Lustig. But that name, the Journal
       discovered, also proved to be false, a name borrowed from a young
       soldier killed in the 1973 Yom Kippur War.

       At 4:23 p.m., Mabhouh left the Al Bustan. Coincidentally, a Mossad
       agent was going the same way.

       Despite their subsequent eagerness to show off their achievements, the
       Dubai police have had little to say about what Mabhouh was doing in
       the four hours before returning to the hotel. "As far as I know,"
       Tamim said at the time, "he had a ticket to China and then on to Sudan
       -- or the other way around. He may have made a stopover here to
       unwind."

       For a man like Mabhouh, unwinding might include discussing an arms
       deal for the Gaza Strip, one of the world's most explosive pieces of
       real estate. According to Israeli sources, Mabhouh met with a banker
       who had already helped him with a number of international arms deals
       in the past, as well as with his usual contact with the Iranian
       Revolutionary Guards, who had flown to Dubai to coordinate two major
       shipments of weapons for Hamas in the coming months. It is
       understandable that the police chief in Dubai prefers not to discuss
       the issue. Although the UAE has pledged to strictly comply with
       international sanctions against Iran, implementation is another story.
       Iran is nearby, and there is a powerful Iranian community in Dubai.

       Tuesday, Jan. 19, 2010, Evening
       The actual kill-team entered the hotel at 6:34 p.m. There were two
       pairs of agents, all four of them broad-shouldered men wearing
       baseball caps and carrying backpacks and shopping bags. The two
       reconnaissance teams already in the Al Bustan were withdrawn, to avoid
       attracting attention, and replaced with two others. One of the teams
       was disguised as British tourists wearing sun hats.

       At 8 p.m., the six agents took up their positions in the hallway
       outside Mabhouh's room. A specialist manipulated the electronic lock
       to the door of room 230 so that the key card from the room across the
       hall would also work.

       Gail Folliard and Kevin Daveron were assigned to secure the hallway.
       Both had already changed into new disguises at other hotels in the
       area, and both were wearing wigs. Daveron was wearing a false
       moustache and the uniform worn by Al Bustan employees. Just as the
       agents were working with the door lock, a man walked into the hallway,
       unable to find his room. Daveron, posing as a hotel employee, managed
       to divert the man away from the hallway.

       At 8:24 p.m., Mabhouh returned to the hotel through the revolving door
       in the lobby. Carrying a plastic bag with new shoes, he took the
       elevator to the second floor. He didn't notice the man with the
       moustache, wearing a hotel uniform, or the woman in the dark wig who
       had been pacing back and forth across the patterned brown carpeting
       for half an hour.

       Under the Mattress

       Mabhouh went into his room. It is unlikely that his encounter with the
       four killers waiting behind the door lasted very long. The only signs
       of a struggle were the few broken slats of the bed frame that were
       later found under the mattress.

       While preparing for the operation, the team had agreed that they
       wanted Mabhouh's death to look as natural as possible. Anything else
       would have resulted in a massive police effort. The airport would have
       been closed, making it impossible for the commando unit to safely
       leave the country.
       The investigative report states that the victim was injected with
       succinylcholine, a drug that causes muscle paralysis in less than a
       minute. Mabhouh was then suffocated with a pillow, according to the
       investigators.

       The truth is that it is still unclear how exactly the Hamas officer
       was killed. Succinylcholine is easily detected in the body of a dead
       person, and the injection site should also be visible. And as anyone
       familiar with TV crime dramas knows, violent suffocation produces
       clear marks in the face, including areas of compression, tiny burst
       blood vessels in the pupils and cracked lips.

       It is hard to imagine that a technically sophisticated intelligence
       agency like the Mossad would resort to such simple methods -- and
       certainly not in an operation on hostile territory.

       By 8:46 p.m., the first two perpetrators were standing in front of the
       elevator that would take them down to the lobby. In the videos taken
       with the security cameras, it seems obvious that the men are pumped up
       with adrenaline, as they shift their weight back and forth, from one
       foot to the other, like boxers. One is still wearing a rubber glove,
       unusual for a hotel guest.

       On a Plane to Paris

       The members of the team left the Al Bustan in groups of two and took
       taxis to the airport. Folliard left the hotel holding the arm of
       another agent and with a plastic bag in her left hand.

       Daveron secured the elevator. He was the last to leave room 237,
       talking on his mobile phone and pulling his trolley case behind him.

       A short time later, Daveron and Folliard were sitting on a plane to
       Paris, while two others were on a flight to South Africa. The body of
       "Plasma Screen" had not yet been discovered and was still lying in
       room 230.

       Everything had gone according to plan, at least up to that point. It
       would take almost a week before Tamim learned of the death of the
       senior Hamas weapons negotiators, who was killed practically within
       view of police headquarters.

       JAN. 24 or 25, 2010

       The Hamas leadership in Damascus noticed that something was wrong when
       it didn't hear from Mabhouh. A man who had worked for Mabhouh was sent
       to the morgue in Dubai. After that, Hamas officials put in a call to
       Dubai police headquarters from Damascus. Yes, they admitted, they had
       allowed one of their senior members to travel to Dubai under a false
       passport, and they had neglected to notify Tamim, the super cop, in
       advance, and now something had gone wrong, very wrong.

       According to eyewitnesses, Tamim then flew into a rage and shouted
       into the phone: "You can pack up yourselves and your bank accounts and
       your weapons and your fake passports and get out of my country."

       Tamim had a problem. Despite being equipped with the most
       sophisticated surveillance system in the Arab world, he had no idea
       that an Israeli commando operation had been executed successfully in
       Dubai, under his very eyes. He had been blind.

       This explains his fit of rage. And it also explains the massive
       investigation he was now ordering his troops to undertake. He may have
       been unable to prevent the killing, but now, at least, he would get
       his revenge, in the form of the investigation. And he would ensure
       that the investigation itself would become a personal triumph --
       Lieutenant General Tamim, the supercop of Dubai.

       Tamim had his team compile a list of everyone who had entered the
       country shortly before the killing and left soon afterwards. The names
       were compared with those of people who had traveled to Dubai in
       February, March, June and November 2009, the months in which Mabhouh
       was also there.

       Some Hollywood Film
       The names on this list, in turn, were compared with the hotel guest
       lists and the videos taken by well over 1,000 surveillance cameras.
       Tamim had the surveillance systems of hotels, malls and the airport
       analyzed. The process soon yielded an image corresponding to every
       name on his passenger and hotel guest lists, so that he was now able
       to compare the images with the Al Bustan security camera videos.

       The other members of the commando unit were identified once Tamim's
       agents had analyzed the Payoneer payments and the conspicuous calls to
       the numbers in Austria.

       All of this took much longer than the "24 hours" Tamim mentioned in
       his first press conference. Nevertheless, it did enable him to portray
       the Mossad operation like some Hollywood film.

       Two Palestinians were also arrested in Jordan and extradited to Dubai.
       Anwar Shaibar and Ahmed Hassanain, men believed to be associated with
       the Palestinian Fatah movement, had allegedly helped the team book
       hotel rooms and reserve rental cars. Investigators later changed their
       assessment of the Palestinians, concluding that Hamas had fabricated
       the story to implicate its political rivals in the case.

       At first, Tamim had refused to believe that the Mossad had conducted
       an operation on his doorstep. "We thought, until the very last minute,
       that another Palestinian group had killed him," says Tamim. "We never
       thought of the Mossad. Only after we had gathered together all the
       faces and all the disguises on the surveillance images did we realize
       that they weren't Palestinians -- that they couldn't be."

       Friday, Jan. 29, 2010
       Mahmoud Mabhouh was buried in Yarmuk, a Palestinian neighborhood in
       Damascus.

       Tamim had assembled most of the parts in his puzzle. He notified his
       superior, the emir. And in an interview with Al Jazeera, he said that
       he could not rule out the possibility of the Mossad being involved in
       the murder. The Reuters news agency also reported Mabhouh's death as a
       murder, but the news attracted little attention. Only a few people
       recognized the story's potential.

       SUNDAY, JAN. 30, 2010, EVENING

       At a reception, US Ambassador Richard Olson asked UAE Foreign Minister
       Abdullah Bin Zayed about the murder at the Al Bustan. After making a
       few phone calls, Zayed decided that the matter was important enough to
       be brought to the attention of his superiors.

       The two de facto rulers of the United Arab Emirates, Crown Prince
       Mohammed Bin Zayed of Abu Dhabi and Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al
       Maktoum, the prime minister and ruler of Dubai, debated on how to
       proceed in the case. They concluded that they could do nothing or they
       could "disclose more or less everything the investigations had
       uncovered."

       The two sheikhs chose the second option.

       MONDAY, FEB. 15, 2010

       It was time for Tamim to take his revenge. The police chief appeared
       before the press, holding up a piece of paper with the photos and
       names, against a red background, of 11 murder suspects. But that
       wasn't all. A triumph has to be placed in context, and timing is
       critical.

       Tamim presented the international press with the video footage
       documenting the crime.
       He had already solved a spectacular jewelry heist at the Wafi Mall in
       2007, secured the conviction of Egyptian real estate tycoon Hisham
       Talaat Moustafa, a friend of President Hosni Mubarak, for the murder
       of a Lebanese singer in 2008 and, in 2009, had solved the murder of
       Chechen warlord Sulim Yamadayev. But his film about the Mossad
       assassination of Mahmoud Al Mabhouh was the highpoint of his career.
       Dahi Khalfan Tamim had made the Israelis look like fools.

       In the ensuing days, Tamim paid close attention to the impact of his
       appearances. He was ultimately praised and even celebrated, not only
       in the Emirates, but also in Iraq, Iran and the West -- and, in the
       end, in Israel. Tamim doesn't remember the name of the Israeli
       journalist who interviewed him via email, but he does know that he
       responded right away. "She was young," he says, "and very
       professional. The entire Israeli press, they all treated me very
       fairly." Tamim was pleased with the way things had turned out.

       WEDNESDAY, FEB. 24, 2010

       The lieutenant general sent a document to the central bank and the
       foreign ministry in Abu Dhabi, together with the request that the
       minister of state forward it to the US Embassy. The document read:

       "Excellency Sultan Al Suwiadi, UAE Central Bank Governor. Subject:
       Credit Cards MC 5115-2600-1600-6190, MC 5115-2600-1600-5317, MC
       5301-3800-3201-7106. General Management of the State Security offers
       greetings, and asks your Excellency to direct the money laundry and
       suspicious transactions unit at the Central Bank to urgently obtain
       details of the above credit cards, in addition to details for
       purchases, accounts, and payments on those cards, as the users of
       those cards were involved in the murder of Mahmoud Mabhouh. Those
       cards were issued by META BANK in the state of Iowa, USA. Thank you
       for your kind cooperation."

       On the same day, State Minister Mohammed Anwar Gargash delivered the
       letter from Dubai to the legal attache at the US Embassy in Abu Dhabi.
       Ambassador Olson forwarded the letter to Washington and requested that
       the matter be addressed promptly, noting that the issue had already
       been raised in a meeting between the foreign minister and US Secretary
       of State Hillary Clinton on the previous day. The Americans knew who
       had used the credit cards in question.

       All they had to do was ask the government in Tel Aviv.

       On June 4, 2010, almost exactly a year after the Mossad agent had been
       issued a German passport, Alexander Varin traveled to Warsaw. Coming
       from Tel Aviv and on his way to the Lithuanian capital Vilnius, he was
       merely changing planes in Warsaw. He showed the Polish border control
       agents his passport, which identified him as Uri Brodsky. An arrest
       warrant had been issued for a person by that name, following a request
       by the German federal prosecutor's office. Varin, aka Brodsky, was
       arrested.

       Investigators with Germany's BKA had painstakingly reconstructed
       Varin's flight routes. In the previous months, his travels had taken
       him to Austria, Lithuania, Latvia, Turkey and the Czech Republic, as
       well as several other places. Varin, a tall, heavy-set man, pulled a
       hood over his head when he was led into the Warsaw courtroom. He
       appeared to be a logistics expert of sorts for the Mossad in Europe,
       and he was outfitted with several identities. The Mossad had not known
       that the name Brodsky had already been used since the hotel stay in
       Cologne a year earlier. It was yet another mistake.

       The matter of his extradition, which the German courts were
       requesting, turned into a tough battle. The Israelis applied a great
       deal of pressure to the Polish government in order to prevent
       extradition. The Poles eventually found a Solomonic solution: Brodsky,
       aka Varin, would be extradited to Germany, but once there he could
       only be charged with a passport violation.

       Mossad Under Pressure

       When the Israeli was extradited on Aug. 12, 2010, the embassy hired
       two of the best and most expensive German attorneys. They paid the
       bail money of EUR100,000, and when Varin was released from detention
       on Aug. 13, he left Germany for Tel Aviv the same day. At the end of
       last year, a court in Cologne suspended the case in return for a
       EUR60,000 fine. It was a solution that all sides could live with, that
       is, if it weren't for the German arrest warrant against Varin, who was
       suspected of engaging in espionage. If Varin tried to enter Germany
       tomorrow, he would be taken into custody at the border.

       The operation in Dubai has put the Mossad under great pressure (even
       though the Israelis have yet to officially confirm that they had
       anything to do with the matter). The head of the Caesarea special unit
       offered his resignation, but it was not accepted. This was not the
       case with Meir Dagan, the head of the Mossad. Even though he had hoped
       for an extension of his term prior to the operation, Prime Minister
       Benjamin Netanyahu appointed a successor in the wake of the botched
       operation. Dagan left his office on Jan. 6, 2011.

       In a press conference, Tamim called for the resignation of Prime
       Minister Netanyahu and promised to pursue the culprits "until the end
       of time." That seems to be about the amount of time he will need.

       Nevertheless, most Israelis see the attack on Mabhouh as a success.
       "It is difficult to call the Dubai operation a failure," says Avi
       Issacharoff, an expert on the Arab world with the Israeli daily
       newspaper Ha'aretz. Although Israel's reputation has been harmed
       internationally, says Issacharoff, "the operational goal was achieved.
       Hamas has seen that it is vulnerable, and the attackers made it home
       unharmed." The Israelis will simply have to be more careful.

       Next time, that is.

       By Ronen Bergman, Christoph Schult, Alexander Smoltczyk, Holger Stark
       and Bernhard Zand

       Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

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     01:34:00

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com

   No virus found in this incoming message.
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   01:34:00
</description>
    <date>2011-01-17 22:48:38</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-20 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1951845_re-ct-spiegel-on-dubai-assassinatino-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1952819</id>
    <title>Re: [TACTICAL] Tearline discussion
</title>
    <description>   Looks good Fred.  Let discuss after I get Dispatch out today.  Thanks.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Andrew Damon" &lt;andrew.damon@stratfor.com&gt;, "Brian Genchur"
   &lt;brian.genchur@stratfor.com&gt;, "TACTICAL" &lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Monday, March 14, 2011 10:53:02 AM
   Subject: Tearline discussion

   I've got a Fox interview @ 0745 Tuesday, but will be back in the office
   by 0830.

   -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   Suggest we remain on topic w/the terrorist surveillance challenges as
   outlined in the UK w/the after-action report focusing on these topics:

   1) The issue faces surveillance teams in western countries and is not
   unique to the UK.  Granted the UK may have more jihadis on the loose to
   surveil, but the practical (tactical) aspects are consistent from London
   to New York to Canberra.

   2) 24x7 surveillance of a terrorist suspect is resource intensive
   provided you don't want to alert the suspect.

   3) Surveillance agents (surveillants, watchers) require unique training
   and skill sets which is why the UK and US/FBI have special teams
   dedicated to the mission.   They can blend quickly, make clothing
   changes, cross demographics and use multiple kinds of surveillance
   platforms (bikes, cars, vans.)

   4) On routine targets (not terrorist manhunts) the surveillance groups
   operate as small teams on the street  -- usually less then 5 personnel
   -- per unit per shift augmented by technology aids (listening devices in
   rooms, street cameras, software like TrapWire or bird dog tracklers GPS)
   on vehicles).  So, do the math.  5 watchers per shift on day work and
   evenings with less resources on midnights, provided the target is
   buttoned down.  (4 terrorists under surveillance = 20 personnel)

   5) The tactical details are also inputted into surveillance logs along
   with pictures and video.  The field unit does a degree of tactical
   analysis which goes back to the case agent.

   6) The challenges of making sense of the surveillance activities can
   also present a tactical analysis failure like we had in the UK with the
   inability to connect the dots.

    
</description>
    <date>2011-03-14 19:07:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1952819_re-tactical-tearline-discussion-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>brian.genchur@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>andrew.damon@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1954076</id>
    <title>RE: TrapWire read on Mubarak 
</title>
    <description>   But he's been one of our staunchest allies in the GWOT and we'll start
   paying the price (with more attacks on US facilities) when he's gone. If I
   were him, I'd take my millions, head to Tahiti and giggle at Obama as he
   struggles with the flood of attacks that are sure to come.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Fred Burton
   Sent: Thursday, February 10, 2011 6:43 PM
   To: 'Analyst List'
   Subject: TrapWire read on Mubarak

   Fill your gas tanks this weekend.

    

   (Panetta botched this one....)

   Really tough call. Mubarak has an ego bigger than Cowboy's Stadium and has
   long ago disassociated from the man-on-the-street. (Remind me to tell you
   some horror stories of working with the service there and the way the
   treated the citizenry). He's also not one to rule by committee, so there's
   probably little chance anyone's getting through to him with logic. Would
   also not surprise me if he's actually a little scared. Where exactly would
   he go...and what would he do if he leaves office this way? Is a date with
   the International Court in his future on human rights charges...like so
   many modern dictators? He can't be feeling too confident with this
   administration covering his ass if the Egyptian populace starts screaming
   for an accounting of past sins.

    

   The real kicker in all this is that the only reason we don't have a 9/11
   type incident happening every week in this country is because of dictators
   like Mubarak. He's kept his boot on the throat of the Brotherhood and
   every other radical Islamic group for some time now. Yes, he has probably
   thrown many people in prison for nothing more than being in the wrong
   place at the wrong time. But he's been one of our staunchest allies in the
   GWOT and we'll start paying the price (with more attacks on US facilities)
   when he's gone. If I were him, I'd take my millions, head to Tahiti and
   giggle at Obama as he struggles with the flood of attacks that are sure to
   come.

    

    

   No virus found in this incoming message.
   Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
   Version: 9.0.872 / Virus Database: 271.1.1/3434 - Release Date: 02/10/11
   01:34:00
</description>
    <date>2011-02-11 01:49:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1954076_re-trapwire-read-on-mubarak-.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1954335</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] Shahzad used online webcams and live shots to plan Times
 Square bombing
</title>
    <description>Former CIA TrapWire response (PLS DO NOT FORWARD) regarding
counter-measures to mitigate the threat: 


We get asked this question quite often. Yes, terror groups do make use
of webcams, Google Earth and the Internet when doing their prep. (Bin
Laden has even made mention of this himself). So, Shahzad's comments are
hardly a revelation in the intel community. That said, I can assure you
no successful terror attack has ever been planned based solely on the
Internet. Google can't tell me how many guards are at a facility; how
long a delta-barrier stays up; what time shift change occurs; what
make/model of PTZs are installed around your building; etc. etc. I have
to have eyes-on-target to fully understand your vulnerabilities. I guess
one could make the argument that relying solely on "virtual
reconnaissance" gives you the results Shahzad had -- failure. (He
probably should have spent more time on bomb-making webpages rather than
webcams).

 

Mumbai is a perfect case in point. The 10 attackers (all peasant farmers
coerced -- and in at least two cases, sold by their families -- into
participating) never set foot in Mumbai prior to the operation. Instead,
they were taken to a safehouse in Pakistan and walked through a series
of videos, still shots and maps of the planned attack routes and
targets. The surveillance cell worked more than two years in collecting
this data, and was able to present such a thorough video montage, that
the attackers had the entire ingress memorized before they ever got
there. This was done with handheld video cameras and probing ops around
the targets -- not the internet.

 



Ryan Abbey wrote:
&gt;
&gt; This could really mess with police using countersurveillance to try
&gt; and nab terrorists.  If future terrorists do take Shahzad's example
&gt; and use online Google Street view, webcams, live shots, etc. that
&gt; means less time that they will actually have to be on the ground doing
&gt; surveillance of the target and even less opportunities for law
&gt; enforcement to nab them.
&gt;
&gt;  
&gt;
&gt;  
&gt;
&gt; Times Square bomb plotter sentenced to life in prison
&gt;
&gt; Link:
&gt; http://www.cnn.com/2010/CRIME/10/05/new.york.terror.plot/index.html?section=cnn_latest
&gt;
&gt;  
&gt;
&gt; Excerpt: 
&gt;
&gt; "According to the memo, Shahzad *used webcams *accessible on the
&gt; internet "as part of his effort to maximize the deadly effect of his
&gt; bomb."
&gt;
&gt; The memo says Shahzad *found webcams online and studied the real-time
&gt; video feeds of different areas in Times Square to determine when and
&gt; where he could inflict the most damage.*
&gt;
&gt; Prosecutors said Shahzad "wanted to select the busiest time for
&gt; pedestrian traffic in Times Square because pedestrians walking on the
&gt; streets would be easier to kill and to injure than people driving in
&gt; cars." "
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; -- 
&gt; Ryan Abbey
&gt; Tactical Intern
&gt; Stratfor
&gt; ryan.abbey@stratfor.com
&gt;
</description>
    <date>2010-10-06 17:20:46</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1954335_re-ct-shahzad-used-online-webcams-and-live-shots-to-plan.html</permalink>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1954534</id>
    <title>RE: Terrorist Surveillance Footage
</title>
    <description>
Perfect example of dumb asses (the security folks) and most citizens.    

How many would look at the operatives conduct (and profile) and think
terrorist surveillances?   

-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
Sent: Tuesday, February 15, 2011 3:02 PM
To: 'Tactical'; 'CT AOR'
Cc: 'Michael D. Mooney'; 'Frank Ginac'
Subject: Terrorist Surveillance Footage

Kudos to Mike Mooney for helping us get the footage.  

Attached is surveillance footage from TrapWire with the background relative
to the clip.  I would encourage you to watch for real terrorist surveillance
video.  

----------------------------------------------------

Fred: Once you have the clip, note the following:

 

.           Barot filmed in NY, NY, DC and London on at least 6-10 occasions
both before and after 9/11. (He was fully aware that our response to 9/11
was to simply erect Jersey Barriers and put more guns on the street looking
for the next attack -- not the surveillance. Thus his complete confidence
that even after 9/11 no one was looking for pre-attack surveillance).

.           The verbiage scrolling across the bottom of the screen is his.

.           You'll see him film CCTV cameras everywhere. His surveillance
notes back to AQ were as good as anything I ever produced for an op with the
Agency. (His plan for the attack on the Prudential building was genius).

.           Notice the focus of his filming: CCTV cameras; police cruisers;
first-responder vehicles; maps of Manhattan; NYSE entrance; nitrogen tanks
above the subway grates; and various Jewish centers.

.           Best part of the film: at the 1:18 mark he passes two security
guards near Wall Street. He's just finished filming a CCTV camera.starts
filming the guards, and one of them says "hey, how you doin'"  Brilliant.
(Not sure if this version has the audio on though).

.           At the end of the clip, you'll see him tilt the WTC sideways and
make the sound of an explosion. He knew already.

 

If a system like TrapWire been deployed at the various sites (including NJ
and DC), we would have caught this guy in the act. As it was, we alerted on
him after raiding a safehouse in Pakistan looking for another guy -- and
found Barot's notes on a hard-drive in that apartment. Pure luck.

 

Mike


The file is now uploaded and can be grabbed at:

https://files.me.com/mooney6023/xsv00c


--Mike



No virus found in this incoming message.
Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
Version: 9.0.872 / Virus Database: 271.1.1/3445 - Release Date: 02/15/11
01:34:00
</description>
    <date>2011-02-15 22:24:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1954534_re-terrorist-surveillance-footage-.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1956493</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] Fwd: FW: [Customer Service/Technical Issues] Atricles on
 Wikileaks
</title>
    <description>   Definitely.

   I would send a request to writers to do this with ALL our wikileak pieces
   and send it to our U.S. gov't clients directly as a package.

   Show them that we care that the Administration is being stupid.

   On 12/8/10 10:04 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     if this guy is a paying customer we could reply and quickly edit out the
     word wikileaks with a find/replace in Word and send him our last two
     articles on it.  Might as well help a brother out. 
     On 12/8/10 10:02 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

       Speaking of closing the barn door after the horses have already run
       away...

       What insane overkill.

       -------- Original Message --------

        Subject: FW: [Customer Service/Technical Issues] Atricles on          
                 Wikileaks                                                    
           Date: Wed, 8 Dec 2010 09:30:43 -0600                               
           From: Service &lt;service@stratfor.com&gt;                               
       Reply-To: Responses List &lt;responses@stratfor.com&gt;, Analyst List        
                 &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;                                      
             To: &lt;responses@stratfor.com&gt;                                     

 Ryan Sims
 STRATFOR
 Global Intelligence
 T: 512-744-4087
 F: 512-744-0239
 ryan.sims@stratfor.com
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 -----Original Message-----
 From: noreply@stratfor.com [mailto:noreply@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of
 vickie.reschke@conus.army.mil
 Sent: Wednesday, December 08, 2010 9:15 AM
 To: service@stratfor.com
 Subject: [Customer Service/Technical Issues] Atricles on Wikileaks

 vickie.reschke sent a message using the contact form at 
 https://www.stratfor.com/contact.

 The US Army is restricted from viewing any articles with the word Wikileaks

 contained within.
 Is there any way you can replace the word from the article with something 
 "Assange" or something else if the article doesn't actually reveal the 
 classified content?
 We don't want to cause a security compromise on our system, but the fallout

 from the divulged data is a valid concern.
 In the mean time, is it possible to send me the article on "WikiLeaks and 
 U.S. Critical Infrastructure" your site published yesterday?






     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

   --

   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

   Marko Papic

   Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

   STRATFOR

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   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-08 17:06:56</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 03:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1956493_re-ct-fwd-fw-customer-service-technical-issues-atricles-on.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
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    <files>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1957039</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror
 Threat
</title>
    <description>   Great work, Jaclyn

   the other interesting issue here is the CI issue from the attacker's
   perspective.  They've gotta be hunting this "Nova" down, no matter how
   accurate his story is. 

   On 11/22/10 1:16 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     including Eurasia on this one. 

     Where else do germans get weapons?
     On 11/22/10 1:13 PM, Ben West wrote:

       Interesting parts I think are facts that balkan criminals were
       implicated in smuggilng weapons and that Dawood Ibrahim was also
       implicated. Lots of shady stuff comes out of the Balkans, so getting
       weapons to Germany from there would be no easy task.

       Also, I'm not sure what role Dawood would play in this scenario.
       Remember Indian officials blamed him for working with naxalites a few
       months back but didn't offer much evidence. He's an all around south
       asian bogeyman - any reference to him sends a clear message that
       somebody is up to no good.

       On 11/22/2010 1:01 PM, Jaclyn Blumenfeld wrote:

         Here are some of the thoughts and inconsistencies I found - I had
         summarized the der spiegel to pick out the bits I found important
         and added some info from other OS articles in blue.

         -Call from abroad (likely Pakistan) from "Nova" a terrorist wanting
         to surrender and return to his family in Germany
         -now working with German Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) and
         was reason behind threat increase on Wednesday, so far three calls
         have taken place between "Nova" and BKA
         -warned of small group attacking Reichstag on Monday and security
         has since been increased, authorities are secretly monitoring
         communications, conducting surveillance operations and launching
         undercover investigations.
         According to "NOVA":
         -AQ and associate groups (Pakistan's Islamic Jihad Group) planning
         together in Pakistan for attack(s) in Germany.
         -One idea was to remotely detonate a bomb using a mobile phone.
         Another called for a small group of terrorists to storm the
         Reichstag with guns blazing, take hostages and end everything in one
         calamitous bloodbath.
         -Plan called for the terrorists to procure the submachine guns,
         automatic rifles, explosives and whatever else they would need in
         the Balkans.
         -He said that two men had already traveled to Germany six to eight
         weeks earlier, adding that one had the nom de guerre of "Abu
         Mohammed" and that the other one was a German of Turkish origin
         -Both apparently had roots in the Greater Berlin metropolitan area,
         were currently unemployed and living off of welfare payments and had
         immersed themselves in the anonymity provided by a major city --
         until the time should come for their activation.
         -Four others involved were waiting to travel to Germany at training
         camps in Pakistan - including a German, a Turk, a North African and
         another jihadist of unknown identity
         -Attack slated for February or March (if German intel had this
         knowledge why would they close the Reichstag today? are they sending
         a statement to AQ and affiliate group that they are aware and ahead
         of the planning?)

         According to FBI (which was recieved shortly before the call from
         "Nova" (there are some inconsistencies between the intelligence)
         - FBI included warnings about the obscure Indian group "Saif" which
         although Shiite had allegedly made pact with AQ and sent five men to
         Pakistan for training - what the connection to the Germany plot not
         specified - the 6 members described in the Reichstag plot were
         described by caller as various nationalities - none Indian)
         -FBI also shared that two members with visas allowing them to travel
         freely in EU schengen zone were already enroute to Germany and would
         enter via UAE on Nov 22  (compared to caller saying that two had
         already entered two weeks prior - time gap - so maybe there are four
         now in Germany unless FBI intel was outdated and the men came
         earlier - or caller was not accurate?)
         -FBI warnings claim the two in Germany were dispatched by Dawood
         Ibrahim Kaskar, an Indian organised crime baron linked to al-Qaeda
         based out of Karachi (this seems out of place - two mentions by the
         FBI of an Indian connection)
         -One of the men is supposedly named "Khan" (versus caller's info he
         was named Abu Muhammed and the second guy was of Turkish descent -
         Khan is not Turkish, Khan and Abu Muhammed could be the same guy
         though)

         Ben West wrote:

           Europeans have still found a way to blame Americans for warnings
           in the past.

           And yes, something very well could be in the works, but given the
           fact that jihadists constantly want to attack the west, is it
           really at all significant that something is in the works?

           I think we'd seen past plots with travel plans... I'd have to look
           harder to get specifics, but I don't think that's all that novel.

           Agree that the security officials are in a catch-22 situation.

           On 11/22/2010 11:43 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

             There is a notable difference here.  And that is the German
             warning issued last week.  It was based on their own
             intelligence not American intelligence--so no blaming americans
             this time.  Yes, it's true that they don't have the capability
             to attack the Reichstag, and theat the attack is not imminent,
             as I pointed out.  But on the other hand, like with cargo
             parcels, it doesn't mean that something is not in the works. 
             Have we ever seen information this specific before on the
             individuals and their travel plans? 

             This is the conundrum of warning intelligence,  when the warning
             is given (just to policymakers, or to the public), measures are
             taken that prevent it.  It then comes the boy-who-cried-wolf,
             even if the warning was originally accurate. 

             Not to mention, given what happened with the last double agent
             to become public (Khost), it will be interesting to follow this
             one. 
             On 11/22/10 11:33 AM, Ben West wrote:

               I agree that the spiegel article was good - but this is the
               kind of thing we've seen over and over again in Europe. Source
               from durkastan says that aq is going to target Europe and kill
               lots of people and that attackers are en route. Everyone gets
               freaked out. Nothing significant happens. Europe blames US of
               scare mongering.

               Certainly islamists have europe in their cross-hairs, but if
               an attack is going to happen, it's not going be preceded by
               this kind of publicity.

               Also, attacking the reichstag? I mean, it's possible to ATTACK
               it, but they've got a pretty heavy security presence there
               that would prevent a hostage situation. I was there a few
               years ago. The public entryway is confined to one doorway with
               a heavy guard presence, metal detectors, x-ray machines, etc.
               If anything, an attack could kill lots of tourists lined up
               outside, but it would take a very serious force to be able to
               gain entrance to the reichstag and an even more well trained
               force to actually hold hostages. This sounds like a pipe-dream
               to me.

               On 11/22/2010 11:04 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                 thoughts?

                 On 11/22/10 11:00 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

                   It is up to you and CT how you approach this. On the
                   short-term, this looks like something you can handle
                   without me. If you want to dabble in the more long-term
                   view of what is going on here, I would love to help.

                   On 11/22/10 10:58 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

                     In the more long-term, I think an analysis of the German
                     intelligence agencies would be good too. They have been
                     pretty decimated by the Cold War and by all the problems
                     associated with running an intelligence agency in a
                     post-Gestapo country. If Germany is ever going to become
                     a world power again, however, they would need to
                     overcome these deamons as well. That is sort of the last
                     straw for Germany, the one that is going to be most
                     sensitive to overcome. But perhaps this case may
                     illustrate how they are already overcoming these issues.

                     On 11/22/10 10:50 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                       Main problem is that Der Spiegel is just that good,
                       they've at least touched on most of what I would want
                       to say about it.  The main thing here is how the
                       politics of a terror threat/alert coincide with the
                       reality of the threat itself. 

                       We saw that Germany was fairly relaxed bout the
                       earlier threat in Europe released by the US.  I'm not
                       sure if that was the same as the info that the FBI
                       passed over about this shia group, Saif (I don't know
                       anything about them).  But something changed, as we
                       noted last week in their interpretation.  That seems
                       to go down to this virtual walk-in.  The one thing I
                       was left confused about is whether BKA had ever been
                       in contact with this source before.  It sounds like he
                       cold called them.  It's common knowledge that
                       walk-ins, rather than recruits, are nearly always the
                       best sources.  But at the same time, they are very
                       suspicious as double agents.  If this was a US source
                       they would be freaking the fuck out after having
                       Al-Balawi turn on them.  The germans seem to have
                       cooler heads, but they will be working 24/7 to verify
                       the source (let me make another plug for John
                       Lecarre's A Most Wanted Man here, most of his career
                       was in Germany). 

                       They've clearly got enough corroborating information
                       that they consider this a real threat.  But
                       politically they are faced with the universal 'damned
                       if you do, damned if you don't' alert problem.  If the
                       Interior ministry doesn't say something, they will be
                       liable if an attack occurs.  Look at the constant
                       press over information on the warning intelligence for
                       Mumbai.  As we've said before, simply issuing the
                       warning may help to deter the attackers. 

                       The real important bit here, is that it seems the
                       germans have fairly good intelligence.  While this
                       attack is still not happening tomorrow, they have a
                       lot of details about what might be in the works,
                       rather than a single-source intercept that indicates
                       some vague threat.  It seems they've increased
                       security pretty well at the Bundestag, and want to add
                       to the presence at any possible target.  This is where
                       we seem them scrambling, and where their intelligence
                       holes are. 

                       The task now for the germans is to verify this
                       source.  Maybe even pick him up and put him on ice
                       somewhere (Fred/Stick?), not in GErmany but in
                       Pakistan/Afghanistan.  That will require some
                       cooperation with either/both the Americans and
                       Pakistanis.  They also need to verify all the bio
                       information they have on these 4-6 guys trying to get
                       into germany and watch travelers very carefully.  The
                       germans seem to be very good at surveilling these
                       threats within Germany, so their best luck may come
                       when one of the guys overseas contacts a local already
                       under surveillance. 

                       At minimum, this could be a pretty interesting
                       tearline this week.  Both the walk-in issues and the
                       CIA/FBI liaison conflicts that I havne't gotten into
                       here. 
                       On 11/22/10 10:34 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

                         Any thoughts on where you guys are thinking of going
                         with this?

                         Der Spiegel article is indeed interesting.

                         On 11/22/10 9:28 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                           Great report from Der Spiegel (thanks Mikey).  I
                           suggest anyone interested to read the whole
                           thing.  They ask the right questions, and while
                           not as much detail as I hoped, give us a much
                           better understanding on the threat in Germany. 

                           The BKA (germany's FBI) must be extremely busy
                           verifying the details of this virtual walk-in.  It
                           obviously caused the germans to shit their pants. 
                           But the real questions are buried in the
                           article---how real was this plot, how real is the
                           source, is the source just trying to get back to
                           the land of brezeln and bier? Trying to
                           double-cross them somehow?

                           Also note the tip off from the FBI (cue fred), not
                           the usual CIA liaison with BND. 

                           For Eurasia, there's a lot in here on the internal
                           politics of the interior minister position, and
                           the relation between state and federal
                           government. 

                           On 11/22/10 8:55 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

                             -------- Original Message --------

                              Subject: [OS] GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind       
                                       Germany's Terror Threat                
                                 Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 08:38:21 -0600        
                                 From: Graham Smith                           
                                       &lt;graham.smith@stratfor.com&gt;            
                             Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;          
                                   To: os@stratfor.com                        

                              11/22/2010 11:38 AM
                             Fears of a Mumbai Redux
                             The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat

                             http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,730377,00.html
                             By Matthias Bartsch, Yassin Musharbash and
                             Holger Stark

                             Germany is currently in a state of high alert.
                             Security officials are warning that they have
                             concrete information pointing to a possible
                             terror attack on the federal parliament building
                             in Berlin, a massively popular tourist
                             attraction. The days of Interior Minister Thomas
                             de Maiziere's reserved stances in dealing with
                             such warnings appear to be over.

                             The call came from abroad, and the man speaking
                             hurriedly on the other end of the line sounded
                             as if he feared for his life. He wanted out, he
                             told the officers of the German Federal Criminal
                             Police Office (BKA) -- out of the terrorist
                             scene. He wanted to come back to Germany, back
                             to his family. Then he asked if German officials
                             could help him.

                             Right now, they're trying to do just that. The
                             BKA is pursuing the case under the codename
                             "Nova." The apparently remorseful man could be
                             an important possible whistleblower from a
                             dangerous region of the globe. In fact, he is
                             also the most recent reason why German Interior
                             Minister Thomas de Maiziere put the entire
                             country in a state of fright on Wednesday.

                             During a hastily called press conference that
                             day, de Maiziere stated that Germany faced the
                             threat of terrorist attacks that might be
                             launched against the country at some point in
                             November. As he put it, Germany is "presently
                             dealing with a new situation."
                             Just two days earlier, the source had called for
                             the third time in just a short period and
                             provided more information. He told officials
                             that a small group of terrorists wanted to
                             conduct a raid on the Reichstag building in
                             Berlin, which houses the federal parliament, and
                             that that was only one of the targets included
                             in their attack plans.

                             Germany on High Alert

                             Since then, Germany has been in a state of high
                             alert. The Reichstag is surrounded with
                             barricades and its popular cupola tourist
                             attraction temporarily closed to visitors.
                             Police armed with submachine guns are patrolling
                             major railway stations and airports. And
                             vacations have been called off for officials at
                             the country's security agencies. Wherever they
                             have cause for doing so, the authorities are
                             secretly monitoring communications, conducting
                             surveillance operations and launching undercover
                             investigations. At the moment, investigators
                             seem to be at a loss; their modus operandi:
                             "We'll prod the shrubs and see if we can flush
                             out any birds."

                             "There is cause for worry, but no cause for
                             hysteria," de Maiziere assured his listeners.
                             But while he has never been much of an agitator,
                             his colleagues at the state level have described
                             the situation in much more drastic terms. Uwe
                             Schu:nemann, for example, who has been the
                             interior minister of the northwestern state of
                             Lower Saxony since 2003, stated that he had
                             "never experienced a heightened security
                             situation like this one." And Berlin Senator for
                             the Interior Ehrhart Ko:rting, whose position is
                             tantamount to that of a government minister in
                             the city-state, has already even gone so far as
                             to call on the inhabitants of the German capital
                             city to report suspicious-looking individuals of
                             Arab origin to the police. "If you suddenly see
                             three somewhat strange-looking men who are new
                             to your neighborhood, who hide their faces and
                             who only speak Arabic," Ko:rting said, "you
                             should report them to the authorities."

                             Under heightened pressure, officials in
                             Germany's 16 federal states are now checking to
                             see when and where major events are scheduled to
                             take place this coming week within their
                             boundaries. And nothing suggested as a possible
                             target is being discounted, no matter how
                             unlikely. For example, officials in
                             Rhineland-Palatinate warned the state's interior
                             minister, Karl Peter Burch, that there was
                             always a lot going on at IKEA stores on
                             Saturdays.[WTF]

                             Serenity, Scaremongering and Strategy

                             Since last week, German politicians at both the
                             state and federal levels have once again had to
                             figure out how they will handle themselves when
                             making warnings about terrorist attacks. They
                             have had to come up with a language that can
                             simultaneously convey both an alert and a sense
                             of calm.

                             This is no easy task. For one thing, this isn't
                             the first time this has happened. In September
                             2009, for example, right before federal
                             elections were held, there were concrete threats
                             that resulted in a heightened security
                             situation. But, in the end, nothing happened.
                             This time around, people are wondering whether
                             they are on the precipice of an emergency or
                             whether these are once again empty threats.

                             Still, one thing is certain: For the time being,
                             Germany has become a different country -- more
                             nervous, more anxious, more agitated. And
                             Germany's domestic security policies are being
                             put to the test.

                             When Interior Minister de Maiziere assumed his
                             office in October 2009 in conservative
                             Chancellor Angela Merkel's government, he aimed
                             to cool down the heated sense of alarm regularly
                             fanned out by his predecessors. What's more, the
                             man who had served as Merkel's chief of staff in
                             Chancellery until being moved to the role of
                             interior minister in her new government, was
                             given the task of nurturing a more relaxed
                             relationship between her party, the Christian
                             Democratic Union (CDU), and its new coalition
                             partner, the business-friendly Free Democratic
                             Party (FDP). In particular, it was his job to
                             not draw out the long-standing conflict over
                             domestic security policies with the Justice
                             Ministry, which has been led since the 2009
                             election by Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger,
                             a member of the FDP. Indeed, Merkel feared that
                             the quarrelsome FDP might try to capitalize on
                             the issue to win over more voters, so she
                             assigned de Maiziere to prevent that from
                             happening.

                             In fact, the plan was to repeat the same
                             strategy that the CDU and its Bavarian sister
                             party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), had
                             used when they were in the so-called "grand
                             coalition" with the center-left Social
                             Democratic Party, between 2005 and 2009. At the
                             time, they made a point of undermining the SPD
                             by championing what had traditionally been the
                             latter party's issues.

                             A Game-Changer

                             But now the game plan has changed. This November
                             will drastically alter de Maiziere's
                             understanding of his role in office. If he tries
                             to return things to their previous state of
                             calm, he's going to have a very tough time. In
                             fact, it's much more likely that he will be a
                             completely different interior minister.

                             For a while now, de Maiziere's softer stance has
                             prompted opposition by politicians on the right
                             involved with domestic security issues. But they
                             are now calling louder than ever for a tougher
                             course to be followed. Merkel is also adjusting
                             to the new situation and is reportedly happy
                             with the way de Maiziere handled himself last
                             week. Likewise, no one seems to have voiced any
                             criticism last Thursday evening during a meeting
                             of the Coalition Committee, a regular gathering
                             of the parties that are part of the government.

                             The almost complete lack of protest has a lot to
                             do with where the alarming information is coming
                             from. In fact, information regarding the
                             supposedly imminent attacks has come from two
                             independent sources. Shortly before receiving
                             the telephone call about the planned attacks,
                             BKA officials had received a cable from their
                             American counterparts at the FBI, America's
                             federal police force, warning of possible
                             attacks.

                             Still, what truth is there in these
                             "security-related" pieces of information coming
                             from both domestic and foreign sources? And,
                             given all the discrepancies in the warning
                             messages, just how much do they deserve to be
                             trusted? Indeed, even among security officials
                             themselves, there is some doubt about how
                             legitimate these statements are -- and about
                             just how acute the danger threatening Germany
                             really is.

                             An Attack Modelled after Mumbai[plot details in
                             this section]
                             What the caller reported was undeniably
                             alarming. According to him, al-Qaida and
                             associated groups based in Pakistan were making
                             joint preparations for an attack in Germany. One
                             idea was to remotely detonate a bomb using a
                             mobile phone. Another called for a small group
                             of terrorists to storm the Reichstag with guns
                             blazing, take hostages and end everything in one
                             calamitous bloodbath. Indeed, BKA officials
                             learned that the latter plan had been modeled on
                             the storming of luxury hotels in Mumbai, the
                             Indian capital, almost exactly two years ago, in
                             a massacre that left 175 people dead.

                             According to the caller, the plan called for the
                             terrorists to procure the submachine guns,
                             automatic rifles, explosives and whatever else
                             they would need to storm Germany's parliament
                             building in the Balkans. He said that two men
                             had already traveled to Germany six to eight
                             weeks earlier, adding that one had the nom de
                             guerre of "Abu Mohammed" and that the other one
                             was a German of Turkish origin. Both apparently
                             had roots in the Greater Berlin metropolitan
                             area, were currently unemployed and living off
                             of welfare payments and had immersed themselves
                             in the anonymity provided by a major city --
                             until the time should come for their activation.

                             Likewise, there were allegedly four other
                             volunteers -- including a German, a Turk, a
                             North African and another jihadist of unknown
                             identity -- in the training camps run by
                             al-Qaida and related groups waiting for the
                             signal to travel to Germany. And, according to
                             the telephone source, al-Qaida's plan was to
                             attack in February or March.
                             The only question now relates to just how
                             credible the caller's statements are. He is an
                             insider who joined up with armed groups several
                             months ago and has earned a reputation as a
                             fanatic fighter.
                             But could it be that he is only trying to tell
                             German officials the juiciest things possible in
                             order to raise his own market value and thereby
                             prompt them to extract him from the terror
                             scene? Or could it be that al-Qaida is even
                             planning a second spectacular coup like the one
                             in December 2009, when the Americans allowed a
                             supposedly top-level turncoat onto an American
                             military base without any sort of pat-down, who
                             went on to detonate his explosive vest and blow
                             seven CIA officials to bits?

                             A Strange Message

                             A clear picture has yet to emerge. And one
                             reason for this is also the fact that it was
                             only two weeks ago that the FBI first decided to
                             share information about another possible attack
                             with German officials.

                             In this case, even the way contact was made was
                             unusual. Under normal circumstances, liaisons
                             from the CIA station in Germany are the ones to
                             communicate American warnings to their German
                             counterparts. But, this time around, it was an
                             apparently particularly anxious FBI that chose
                             to directly notify the BKA.
                             The FBI told the Germans about an obscure Indian
                             group called "Saif," or "sword." Despite being a
                             Shiite group, it had allegedly made a pact with
                             al-Qaida, a Sunni organization, and sent five of
                             its men to the Pakistani province of Waziristan
                             for training. According to the FBI, two
                             volunteers -- who were already equipped with
                             visas allowing them to travel freely within the
                             25 European countries belonging to the Schengen
                             zone -- were supposedly already en route to
                             Germany and would enter the United Arab Emirates
                             on Monday, Nov. 22. There, they would allegedly
                             be provided with new travel documents before
                             traveling on to Germany. One of the men is
                             supposedly named "Khan," which is about as
                             common in that part of the world as "Smith" is
                             in English-speaking countries. And no firm
                             conclusion had been made about their
                             nationalities.

                             The FBI agents even named the presumed
                             masterminds behind the operation. A certain
                             Mushtaq Altaf Bin-Khadri, who is in charge of
                             finances and training for "Saif," allegedly
                             dispatched the terrorist squad. But the FBI was
                             not in a position to comment on the targets of
                             the two men in Germany.

                             One name came up time and again in the
                             communique, and one that pricked the Germans'
                             ears: Dawood Ibrahim. The 54-year-old arms
                             trader is "India's most-wanted man." The US
                             government has listed him as a "global
                             terrorist" and persuaded the United Nations to
                             place his name on a list of supporters of
                             terror. Ibrahim is rumored to be the head of
                             D-Company, a criminal syndicate named after
                             himself, and is believed to be in charge of
                             smuggling the suspected terrorists into Germany.

                             Both the FBI and the BKA are attaching a lot of
                             importance to the information in the FBI
                             communique. But the intelligence services of the
                             two countries -- the CIA in the United States
                             and the BND and Office for the Protection of the
                             Constitution in Germany, the country's foreign
                             and domestic intelligence agencies, respectively
                             -- point to internal contradictions as reasons
                             for their skepticism. As they see it, for
                             example, it is highly unlikely that a Shiite
                             group would team up with Sunni terrorists,
                             especially since a good part of al-Qaida
                             propaganda vilifies Shiites. Other reasons for
                             doubt include the facts that none of the
                             intelligence agencies was previously familiar
                             with an organization called "Saif," that there
                             have been no previously recorded threats against
                             Germany by Indian extremists, and that the whole
                             scenario seems rather implausible.

                             On the other hand, the FBI information is
                             uncommonly concrete. In addition to the names of
                             the suspects, it also provides information about
                             the exact day on which they are supposed to
                             arrive in the United Arab Emirates. Moreover,
                             Ibrahim is believed to be one of the men behind
                             the terror attacks in Mumbai. If he really is
                             involved, that alone would be reason enough for
                             worry.

                             Abnormal Circumstances

                             Under normal circumstances, a message of this
                             kind from the United States would no doubt be
                             cause for serious-minded scrutiny, but it would
                             not be a cause for alarm. For example, the BKA
                             would go through all recent visa applications,
                             and federal police officers would take a closer
                             look at all the people entering Germany from
                             Arab states. And the intelligence services would
                             make the rounds to see if any of its partners
                             had any helpful information on the matter.

                             Indeed, under normal circumstances, there are
                             always a lot of these communiques, most of which
                             turn out to be false alarms. But these are no
                             normal circumstances. Germany is in a state of
                             emergency. Other countries, such as the United
                             States, employ a system of official warning
                             levels based on color codes that change -- from
                             yellow to orange, for example -- when the danger
                             level is thought to increase. But, in Germany,
                             the interior minister is the barometer: He
                             consults with experts -- and then it is he who
                             must call the shots.

                             For the minister, a situation like this presents
                             a dilemma. If he remains silent and something
                             happens, he's a failure. If he makes loud
                             warning and nothing happens, he's just a
                             rabble-rouser trying to push through
                             controversial tougher security laws. And, of
                             course, the public never thanks you if everyday
                             life continues in a normal, peaceful way.

                             Absolute Security Remains a Pipe Dream

                             When de Maiziere became Germany's interior
                             minister, he had planned to lead the ministry in
                             a level-headed way. For example, he prefers to
                             use phrases such as "internal calm" rather than
                             "internal security." And it was only six weeks
                             ago that he uttered the sentence: "There's no
                             cause for alarm." But, since then, the chorus of
                             warning voices has only ballooned in size.

                             This change in course is the combined result of
                             everything that happened beforehand. It might
                             very well turn out that the alleged Indian
                             terror squad stays home and that the raid on the
                             Reichstag never happens. But what will remain is
                             a well-founded supposition that there is a
                             critical mass of terrorists in the border region
                             between Afghanistan and Pakistan that is
                             thinking about launching attacks in Europe --
                             and certainly in Germany, as well.

                             Raw Nerves

                             Given such circumstances, there is a major sense
                             of alarm among German officials. Last Thursday,
                             just a day after de Maiziere's shocking press
                             conference, the BKA issued a press release "in
                             connection with the current high-risk
                             situation." It reported that a piece of
                             suspicious luggage had been discovered a day
                             earlier in Windhoek, the capital of Namibia,
                             before being loaded onto a plane bound for
                             Germany. The laptop bag contained batteries,
                             wires, a detonator and a clock -- in other
                             words, all the ingredients you need for a
                             potential airborne catastrophe.

                             It sounded as if another terror plot had been
                             foiled. Had there been a plan to blow up Air
                             Berlin Flight 7377 en route to Munich? And had
                             the authorities, yet again, discovered an
                             explosive device at the last minute? In the end,
                             all the worry was unfounded. As it turned out,
                             the piece of luggage was a test device built by
                             a company that designs "real test" suitcases to
                             be used to test security measures. It remains
                             unclear who checked the bag in. But the fact
                             that the BKA was so quick to go into alarm mode
                             -- and publicly so -- has been a communications
                             debacle.

                             Of course, these days, nobody wants to be the
                             one that wasn't sufficiently circumspect, the
                             one who took too long to speak up. No one wants
                             a replay of situations like the one from the
                             beginning of November, when de Maiziere didn't
                             know for hours whether the package that had
                             arrived at the Chancellery contained actual
                             explosives or was just a false alarm. Now, the
                             threshold for sounding the alarm is already much
                             lower.

                             Bonded by Fear

                             Of course, you can never be too sure. Over the
                             last 12 months, a series of attacks concocted in
                             the Afghan-Pakistani border region have been
                             foiled in the West. For example, in May, a car
                             bomb set in New York's Times Square by a man
                             with ties to the Pakistani Taliban failed to
                             properly detonate. In Copenhagen, al-Qaida had
                             made plans to storm the offices of the
                             Jyllands-Posten newspaper as revenge for its
                             2005 publishing of caricatures of the Prophet
                             Muhammad. In October 2009, David Headley, an
                             American citizen with Pakistani roots, was
                             arrested after having already visited the
                             newspaper's offices in order to scout them out
                             before the planned attack. Other targets
                             reportedly included the subway systems of New
                             York City and Washington.

                             On the other hand, absolute security is a pipe
                             dream. For example, British authorities had even
                             conducted rehearsals for how to respond to
                             possible attacks. But, even so, when attacks
                             claiming 56 lives (including those of four
                             attackers) did strike London, on July 7, 2005,
                             they were unable to prevent them. Likewise, US
                             intelligence services had warned India a number
                             of times that terrorists were planning attacks
                             in Mumbai.

                             The new situation in Germany has at least had
                             one positive side effect: For the time being,
                             the traditionally quarrelsome interior ministers
                             from both the state and the federal levels have
                             refrained from their usual bickering. Following
                             informal talks held last Thursday in Hamburg,
                             Minister Bruch of Rhineland-Palatinate noted
                             that he had "never experienced such harmony
                             within this group" that has apparently been
                             bonded together by their shared fear.

                             Translated from the German by Josh Ward

                           --

                           Sean Noonan

                           Tactical Analyst

                           Office: +1 512-279-9479

                           Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

                           Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

                           www.stratfor.com

                         --

                         - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

                         Marko Papic

                         Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

                         STRATFOR

                         700 Lavaca Street - 900

                         Austin, Texas

                         78701 USA

                         P: + 1-512-744-4094

                         marko.papic@stratfor.com

                       --

                       Sean Noonan

                       Tactical Analyst

                       Office: +1 512-279-9479

                       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

                       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

                       www.stratfor.com

                     --

                     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

                     Marko Papic

                     Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

                     STRATFOR

                     700 Lavaca Street - 900

                     Austin, Texas

                     78701 USA

                     P: + 1-512-744-4094

                     marko.papic@stratfor.com

                   --

                   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

                   Marko Papic

                   Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

                   STRATFOR

                   700 Lavaca Street - 900

                   Austin, Texas

                   78701 USA

                   P: + 1-512-744-4094

                   marko.papic@stratfor.com

                 --

                 Sean Noonan

                 Tactical Analyst

                 Office: +1 512-279-9479

                 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

                 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

                 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX
      

             --

             Sean Noonan

             Tactical Analyst

             Office: +1 512-279-9479

             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

             www.stratfor.com

 --
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX
  

 --
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-22 20:17:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1957039_re-ct-discussion-germany-ct-the-story-behind-germany-s.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1958994</id>
    <title>Re: UK Plot - Do we have the target list?
</title>
    <description>London Stock Exchange is protected by heavy surveillance coverages
(TrapWire) and predictive software. 

Sean Noonan wrote:
&gt; They haven't allowed the details to be released.  All I've seen is the
&gt; London Stock Exchange and "The Guardian website has said shops, banks
&gt; and "iconic targets" in London were on a list of sites for bombing. "
&gt;
&gt; -shopping centers and gov't buildings
&gt;
&gt; On 12/27/10 10:56 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt; http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-12081828
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; They are alleged to have done this by carrying out reconnaissance,
&gt;&gt; agreeing potential targets, downloading and researching materials and
&gt;&gt; igniting and testing incendiary material.
&gt;&gt;     
&gt;
&gt; -- 
&gt;
&gt; Sean Noonan
&gt;
&gt; Tactical Analyst
&gt;
&gt; Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt;
&gt; Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt;
&gt; Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt;
&gt; www.stratfor.com
&gt;
</description>
    <date>2010-12-27 18:34:14</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1958994_re-uk-plot-do-we-have-the-target-list-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1963473</id>
    <title>TrapWire on 100 Percent Chance of WMD Attack]
</title>
    <description>From TrapWire --


By the way -- the bad guys figured out long ago how paranoid we are
about anything that smacks of WMD…even if it's a deception.

Case in point: Dihren Barot, the AQ surveillant who now sits in UK
prison, actually stated in his surveillance reports related to the
Prudential Building op in NJ that the attack team should paint the gas
and oxygen canisters with the yellow and black radioactive symbol. He
opined (correctly I believe) that when first responders found bits and
pieces of the yellow/black metal, they'd freak out and seal the entire
area…and no one would ever believe the USG's subsequent explanation that
it wasn’t really radioactive. The bad guys only need to be right once…..


(By the way, we brief Barot and many other real-world case studies in
our Surveillance Detection training related to TrapWire. Always a bit
hit with the LE crowds).
</description>
    <date>2011-02-15 14:29:47</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1963473_trapwire-on-100-percent-chance-of-wmd-attack-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1966214</id>
    <title>INDIA/CT - Bhopal gas leak convictions not enough, say campaigners
</title>
    <description>            Bhopal gas leak convictions not enough, say campaigners

   http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/south_asia/10260109.stm
   Monday, 7 June 2010 19:29 UK

   Convictions over a gas plant leak that killed thousands of people in 1984
   in the Indian city of Bhopal have been heavily criticised by campaigners.

   Amnesty International described the two-year sentences for eight people as
   "too little, too late".

   The convictions are the first since the disaster at the Union Carbide
   plant - the world's worst industrial accident.

   The eight Indians, all former plant employees, were convicted of "death by
   negligence".

   One was convicted posthumously. The others are expected to appeal.

   Nityanand Jayaraman, of the International Campaign for Justice in Bhopal
   campaign group, told the BBC the punishment imposed on Union Carbide was
   wholly inadequate.

   "I share the Bhopalis' sense of outrage and betrayal," he said.

   "I feel that it portends ill for the country that industrialists and
   corporations are being told that they can actually get away with murder,
   and today's verdict is essentially that - a signal that [after] the
   world's worst industrial disaster, the people who were accused of that are
   just being let off with a rap on the knuckles."

   Satinath Sarangi, an activist also campaigning on behalf of Bhopal
   victims, told the BBC that justice would not be done until US executives
   from Union Carbide at the time of the incident - including the company's
   former head, Warren Anderson - were brought to India to face justice.

   "This is not the justice that we have been waiting for, because the
   principal accused - Warren Anderson, Union Carbide corporation USA - are
   not here," he said.

   "The charges that have been [laid] on the Indian accused have essentially
   been the charges that you would put for a traffic accident. This is indeed
   a very sad day for us."

   Forty tonnes of a toxin called methyl isocyanate leaked from the pesticide
   factory and settled over slums in Bhopal on 3 December 1984.

   Official figures show at least 3,000 people died at the time and as many
   as 15,000 have died since.

   Campaigners put the death toll as high as 25,000 and say the horrific
   effects of the gas continue to this day.

   'Unacceptable'

   Amnesty International also called on the Indian and US governments to take
   legal action against US executives of Union Carbide.

   "These are historic convictions, but it is too little, too late," said
   Audrey Gaughran, an Amnesty director.

   "Twenty-five years is an unacceptable length of time for the survivors of
   the disaster and families of the dead to have waited for a criminal trial
   to reach a conclusion.

   "While the Indian employees have now been tried and convicted, the foreign
   accused have been able to evade justice simply by remaining abroad. This
   is totally unacceptable."

   Rashida Bee, president of the Bhopal Gas Women's Workers group, told the
   AFP news agency that "justice will be done in Bhopal only if individuals
   and corporations responsible are punished in an exemplary manner".

   Although Warren Anderson was named as an accused and later declared an
   "absconder" by the court, he was not mentioned in Monday's verdict.

   The eight convicted on Monday were Keshub Mahindra, the chairman of the
   Indian arm of the Union Carbide (UCIL); VP Gokhale, managing director;
   Kishore Kamdar, vice-president; J Mukund, works manager; SP Chowdhury,
   production manager; KV Shetty, plant superintendent; SI Qureshi,
   production assistant. All of them are Indians.

   The seven former employees, some of whom are now in their 70s, were also
   ordered to pay fines of 100,000 Indian rupees (A-L-1,467; $2,125) apiece.

   The site of the former pesticide plant is now abandoned.

   It was taken over by the state government of Madhya Pradesh in 1998, but
   environmentalists say poison is still found there.

   Campaigners say Bhopal has an unusually high incidence of children with
   birth defects and growth deficiency, as well as cancers, diabetes and
   other chronic illnesses.

   Twenty years ago Union Carbide paid $470m (A-L-282m) in compensation to
   the Indian government.

   Dow Chemicals, which bought the company in 1999, says this settlement
   resolved all existing and future claims against the company.

   Paulo Gregoire
   ADP
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1966214_india-ct-bhopal-gas-leak-convictions-not-enough-say.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>os@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>paulo.gregoire@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1971095</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] Did Mossad kill German politician involved in Iran-Contra
 scandal?
</title>
    <description>Dr Brandenberger said that computer analysis of the original 1987
autopsy data makes it “next to certain that Barschel was injected with
[the strong sedative] Noludar shortly before his death through the rectum”

Sean Noonan wrote:
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;   Did Mossad kill German politician involved in Iran-Contra scandal?
&gt;
&gt; Posted on November 22, 2010
&gt; &lt;http://intelligencenews.wordpress.com/2010/11/22/01-600/&gt; by
&gt; intelNews
&gt; &lt;http://intelligencenews.wordpress.com/author/intelligencenews/&gt;|
&gt; Leave a comment
&gt; &lt;http://intelligencenews.wordpress.com/2010/11/22/01-600/#respond&gt;
&gt; Uwe Barschel
&gt;
&gt; Uwe Barschel
&gt;
&gt; By *JOSEPH FITSANAKIS* | intelNews.org |
&gt; Accusations of Israeli involvement in the suspicious death of a German
&gt; politician have been revived, following new autopsy evidence revealed
&gt; by a medical examiner. The case involves the death of Christian
&gt; Democratic Union politician Uwe Barschel, who on October 11, 1987, was
&gt; found dead in the bathtub of room 317 of the Beau-Rivage hotel in
&gt; Geneva, Switzerland. His sudden death occurred less than a month after
&gt; he was forced to resign from the post of Governor of West Germany’s
&gt; Schleswig-Holstein state, following his involvement in a dirty-tricks
&gt; campaign against his rival Björn Engholm, of Germany’s Social
&gt; Democratic Party. Swiss authorities, based on an initial postmortem
&gt; that revealed lethal levels of barbiturates in Barschel’s system,
&gt; ruled the death a suicide. But now Dr Hans Brandenberger, who was one
&gt; of the toxicological experts that examined Barschel, claims that he is
&gt; possession of new evidence that points to murder as the cause of the
&gt; German politician’s death. Speaking
&gt; &lt;http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article11113360/CDU-Politiker-will-neue-Ermittlungen-im-Fall-Barschel.html&gt;
&gt; on Sunday to Germany’s quality /Welt am Sonntag/ broadsheet, Dr
&gt; Brandenberger said that computer analysis of the original 1987 autopsy
&gt; data makes it “next to certain that Barschel was injected with [the
&gt; strong sedative] Noludar shortly before his death through the rectum”.
&gt; The toxicologist claims that the strong tranquilizer was part of a
&gt; complex cocktail of drugs that was force-fed to the German politician
&gt; after he was sedated, probably with the help of a spiked drink. Dr
&gt; Brandenberger’s allegations have breathed new life to claims that
&gt; Barschel was in fact murdered by Israeli intelligence agency Mossad,
&gt; who targeted him because of his inside knowledge of Iran-Contra
&gt; scandal dealings. Specifically, Barschel is said to have known about
&gt; an alleged transfer of Israeli military aircraft to the Islamic
&gt; Republic of Iran, facilitated under United States oversight through
&gt; German mediators. Following his resignation from his governor post, he
&gt; had threatened to publicize insider accounts of the alleged transfer.
&gt; During the Iran-Contra Scandal (1985-1986), Israel acted as
&gt; Washington’s conduit in supplying US-made weapons to Iran and then
&gt; channeling the profits to the Contras paramilitary mercenaries
&gt; fighting Nicaragua’s Sandinista government. Incidentally
&gt; &lt;http://intelligencenews.wordpress.com/about/latest-analysis/content/analysis009/&gt;,
&gt; Israel did so in full knowledge of the fact that the Iranian
&gt; government was at that time the primary military supplier of
&gt; Palestinian militant group Hamas.
&gt;
&gt; -- 
&gt;
&gt; Sean Noonan
&gt;
&gt; Tactical Analyst
&gt;
&gt; Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt;
&gt; Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt;
&gt; Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt;
&gt; www.stratfor.com
&gt;
</description>
    <date>2010-11-22 19:28:26</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-05 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1971095_re-ct-did-mossad-kill-german-politician-involved-in-iran.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1971142</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] [OS] CHINA/CSM - Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in
 fraud probe
</title>
    <description>   I agree with Alibaba and had flagged that too.  I didn't see the mention
   of trapwire in the story on Cisco.  Maybe I missed it.  Yes, keep me
   posted on any questions and I'll see what my contact can dig up.

   On 7/4/11 11:18 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     This is also a pretty good CSM topic.  some college kids running a scam
     through Alibaba (chinese ebay), took in a good amount of money. 

     If we had some good 'redism' related incidents, maybe I could write on
     that, but we'd need some very concise points to make. 

     Let me know what you guys think of this and the surveillance camera
     topic.

     Jen, I assume that Trapwire is a competitor to Cisco, but I'm not sure. 
     I don't know if trapwire makes the actual cameras or just does the
     analysis.   I won't have real questions till morning. 

     On 7/2/11 11:00 AM, Kevin Stech wrote:

       Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in fraud probe

       02 July 2011 - 08H10 

       http://www.france24.com/en/20110702-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-fraud-probe

        

       AFP - Police have arrested 36 people in southeast China following an
       investigation into fraud on e-commerce site Alibaba.com and other
       websites that duped buyers out of more than $6 million.

        

       Alizila.com, Alibaba's corporate news website, reported earlier this
       week the suspects were detained in Fujian province's Putian city in
       April. John Spelich, the firm's spokesman, confirmed the report to AFP
       on Saturday.

        

       The people arrested allegedly operated a criminal gang that used fake
       IDs to open more than 100 "Gold Supplier" accounts on Alibaba.com.
       This designation is given to those certified as highly trusted
       suppliers by the firm.

        

       This allowed the suspects to pose as legitimate companies selling to
       overseas businesses that source goods through Alibaba.com. Police said
       the alleged scammers also used other international trading websites.

        

       Alibaba.com, based in the eastern city of Hangzhou, has grown into one
       of China's largest Internet companies by matching mainland
       manufacturers and wholesalers with buyers around the world.

        

       But its reputation took a hit in February when the firm announced the
       resignation of chief executive David Wei and head of operations Elvis
       Lee after fraud was uncovered on the site.

        

       Wei and Lee were not involved in the scams but resigned because they
       took responsibility for "systemic breakdowns" that allowed the fraud
       to happen, Alibaba said at the time.

        

       But according to the Alizila report, the fraud was "sometimes abetted
       by Alibaba.com employees." But Spelich said Saturday none of the 36
       arrested worked at the company.

        

       He added the number of fraud complaints received by the website in
       June was down 70 percent from February after Alibaba toughened
       procedures and other security measures.

        

       The report said Alibaba had refunded $1.9 million to those who lost
       their money to the alleged scammers.

       Click here to find out more!

        

       Kevin Stech

       Director of Research | STRATFOR

       kevin.stech@stratfor.com

       +1 (512) 744-4086

        

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 07:22:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1971142_re-ct-os-china-csm-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-in.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1972027</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] Shahzad used online webcams and live shots to plan Times
 Square bombing
</title>
    <description>   Yes, I agree with that, but the defensive mechanisms (guards, delta
   barriers, time shift, make/model of PTZ's) he/she mentioned are geared
   more for hardened targets (not that places like the Times Square doesn't
   have PTZ's and police walking the beat) not soft targets like Times
   Square, hotels, mass transit systems, etc. 

    

   The failure of Shahzad, as he/she pointed out, was not that he did not do
   his surveillance homework - it was that his device did not work properly
   (if I remember right, he set the wrong time on the bomb). 

    

   Having said that - nothing can compete with seeing the target for
   oneself.  However, individuals with good bomb-making skills could use the
   Internet for surveillance on a soft target without having set foot there. 
   The plan has less chances of coming off than having actually eyes on the
   target, but these Internet views of targets allows terrorists to do a
   great deal of their homework from their apartment, hotel room, etc. 

    

    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Ryan Abbey" &lt;ryan.abbey@stratfor.com&gt;, "CT AOR" &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, October 6, 2010 11:20:46 AM
   Subject: Re: [CT] Shahzad used online webcams and live shots to plan Times
   Square bombing

   Former CIA TrapWire response (PLS DO NOT FORWARD) regarding
   counter-measures to mitigate the threat:

   We get asked this question quite often. Yes, terror groups do make use
   of webcams, Google Earth and the Internet when doing their prep. (Bin
   Laden has even made mention of this himself). So, Shahzad's comments are
   hardly a revelation in the intel community. That said, I can assure you
   no successful terror attack has ever been planned based solely on the
   Internet. Google can't tell me how many guards are at a facility; how
   long a delta-barrier stays up; what time shift change occurs; what
   make/model of PTZs are installed around your building; etc. etc. I have
   to have eyes-on-target to fully understand your vulnerabilities. I guess
   one could make the argument that relying solely on "virtual
   reconnaissance" gives you the results Shahzad had -- failure. (He
   probably should have spent more time on bomb-making webpages rather than
   webcams).

    

   Mumbai is a perfect case in point. The 10 attackers (all peasant farmers
   coerced -- and in at least two cases, sold by their families -- into
   participating) never set foot in Mumbai prior to the operation. Instead,
   they were taken to a safehouse in Pakistan and walked through a series
   of videos, still shots and maps of the planned attack routes and
   targets. The surveillance cell worked more than two years in collecting
   this data, and was able to present such a thorough video montage, that
   the attackers had the entire ingress memorized before they ever got
   there. This was done with handheld video cameras and probing ops around
   the targets -- not the internet.

    

   Ryan Abbey wrote:
   &gt;
   &gt; This could really mess with police using countersurveillance to try
   &gt; and nab terrorists.  If future terrorists do take Shahzad's example
   &gt; and use online Google Street view, webcams, live shots, etc. that
   &gt; means less time that they will actually have to be on the ground doing
   &gt; surveillance of the target and even less opportunities for law
   &gt; enforcement to nab them.
   &gt;
   &gt;  
   &gt;
   &gt;  
   &gt;
   &gt; Times Square bomb plotter sentenced to life in prison
   &gt;
   &gt; Link:
   &gt;
   http://www.cnn.com/2010/CRIME/10/05/new.york.terror.plot/index.html?section=cnn_latest
   &gt;
   &gt;  
   &gt;
   &gt; Excerpt:
   &gt;
   &gt; "According to the memo, Shahzad *used webcams *accessible on the
   &gt; internet "as part of his effort to maximize the deadly effect of his
   &gt; bomb."
   &gt;
   &gt; The memo says Shahzad *found webcams online and studied the real-time
   &gt; video feeds of different areas in Times Square to determine when and
   &gt; where he could inflict the most damage.*
   &gt;
   &gt; Prosecutors said Shahzad "wanted to select the busiest time for
   &gt; pedestrian traffic in Times Square because pedestrians walking on the
   &gt; streets would be easier to kill and to injure than people driving in
   &gt; cars." "
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt;
   &gt; --
   &gt; Ryan Abbey
   &gt; Tactical Intern
   &gt; Stratfor
   &gt; ryan.abbey@stratfor.com
   &gt;

   --
   Ryan Abbey
   Tactical Intern
   Stratfor
   ryan.abbey@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1972027_re-ct-shahzad-used-online-webcams-and-live-shots-to-plan.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ryan.abbey@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1972067</id>
    <title>[CT] INDIA COUNTRY BRIEF 101214
</title>
    <description>                              INDIA COUNTRY BRIEF

    

   101214

                          Basic Political Developments

    

     o The Sunni Central Waqf Board is expected to file a Special Leave
       Petition in the Supreme Court on Tuesday.

    

     o A Bihar court has issued non-bailable warrants against LJP supremo
       Ramvilas Paswan and ex-MP Nagmani for allegedly violating model code
       of conduct during the 1995 Bihar Assembly elections.

    

     o The Central Vigilance Commission has asked all the ministries to give
       details of all the works carried out by them during the past three
       months for its scrutiny.

    

     o Supreme Court Judge H L Gokhale today contradicted his claim that he
       was not aware that it was former Union Telecom Minister A Raja, who
       had tried to influence a Madras High Court judge in a criminal case.

    

                            National Economic Trends

    

     o Inflation declined to 7.48 per cent in November, mainly boosted by
       lowering of pressure on certain food items.

    

     o Prime Minister's economic panel today said the central bank might hold
       key policy rates as inflation for November has fallen to 11-month low
       of 7.48 per cent.

    

          Business, Energy or Environmental regulations or discussions

    

     o Intel Capital today announced that it has acquired shares worth USD 45
       million in Omnesys Technologies.

    

     o Neyveli Lignite Corporation (NLC) is scouting for a joint venture
       partner to acquire coal blocks abroad.

    

     o JSW Infrastructure said it will raise up to $125 million by selling a
       10 percent stake to hedge fund Eton Park Capital to expand its ports
       business and pare debt.

    

     o Huawei aims to invest more than $2 billion in India over the next five
       years in areas including research and development and manufacturing.

    

     o NTPC today said it would pick up 76 per cent equity each in two
       thermal power projects in Jharkhand.

    

     o Apollo Munich Health Insurance Company is hoping to close this fiscal
       with a premium income of Rs.210 crore (over $46 million) and also
       expand its branch and agency network.

    

     o Prime Minister Manmohan Singh today said there was a perceived
       "ethical deficit" among some corporates which need to follow fair
       means in their pursuit.

    

     o Shareholders of Vedanta Resources Plc have approved the proposed
       acquisition of majority stake in Cairn India for up to USD 9.6.

    

     o A Pantaloon Retail (India) Ltd executive on Tuesday said the Indian
       government may allow foreign direct investment in multi-brand retail
       in the next three months.

    

     o Infosys Technologies would be focussing on emerging countries,
       including Brazil, China and India.

    

           Activity in the Oil and Gas sector (including regulatory)

    

     o An official of Indian Oil (IOC) said a hike of Re 1-2 per litre in
       petrol prices is on cards this week following international crude oil
       prices touching USD 90 per barrel mark.

    

Militant Activity/Terrorism (Particularly in Bangalore, Mumbai, Noida, Chennai,
                                  Coimbatore)

    

     o Maoists collect around Rs 2,500 crore is believed to be the backbone
       of the underground.

    

     o Union Home Minister P Chidambaram today appealed to various NE
       insurgent groups to come forward for talks.

    

     o Security agencies said as many as 120 CPI-M workers being selectively
       identified, abducted and killed by Maoists in the past 11 months.

    

     o The Government has formed special teams to locate 31 most wanted IM
       men of the banned outfit, whose list has been circulated to all states
       and union territories.

    

     o Police said six persons, including two CRPF jawans, were today injured
       in a grenade attack by militants on a bunker in Pulwama district of
       Kashmir.

    

                              Labor/Social Unrest

    

                                   Full Text

                          Basic Political Developments

    

   Sunni Waqf Board to move SC against Ayodhya ruling

   http://www.rediff.com/news/report/sunni-waqf-board-to-move-sc-against-ayodhya-ruling/20101214.htm

   December 14, 2010 12:24 IST

   The Sunni Central Waqf Board is expected to file a Special Leave Petition
   in the Supreme Court on Tuesday, challenging the Allahabad high court
   verdict in the Ram Janmabhoomi-Babri Masjid title suits.

    

   Advocate Zafaryab Jilani, who appeared for the board in the high court,
   confirmed that they were moving the Supreme Court on Tuesday.

    

   "To give prominence to the factor of belief and faith over the Indian
   Evidence Act, a parliamentary statute, is a violation by itself," Jilani
   said.

    

   The petition argues that the judgment violates the fundamental principles
   under Articles 25 and 26 -- freedom to practice religion of choice.

    

   The judgment satisfies the Hindu litigants' right to property by declaring
   the birthplace inside the Masjid, and thus, riding roughshod over the
   Muslims' right to practice their religion.

    

   "Articles 25 and 26 give equal rights to all faiths. One faith cannot
   suffer at the expense of another," he said.

    

   The Lucknow bench of the Allahabad high court had earlier on September 30
   ruled by majority that the disputed land in Ayodhya be divided into three
   parts.

    

   The high court bench decided to divide the disputed 2.7 acres of land into
   three parts, with each of the three parties to the suit getting a part of
   it.

    

   The ownership of the disputed land has been divided as follows: (1) Ram
   Lalla, the birthplace of Lord Ram, given to Lord Ram (2) Sita Rasoi and
   Ram Chabootra to Nirmohi Akhara and (3) The remaining part to be given to
   the Sunni Waqf Board.

    

    

   Non-bailable warrants against Ramvilas, Nagmani

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/1190589_Non-bailable-warrants-against-Ramvilas--Nagmani-

   Katihar (Bihar), Dec 14 (PTI) A Bihar court has issued non-bailable
   warrants against LJP supremo Ramvilas Paswan and ex-MP Nagmani for
   allegedly violating model code of conduct during the 1995 Bihar Assembly
   elections.

    

   First class judicial magistrate Randhir Kumar directed issuance of the
   warrants against Paswan and Nagmani, also a Congress leader, for not
   appearing before him on December 10, despite summons issued against them,
   officials said today.

    

   The case was registered against them under Kodha police station during
   Bihar Assembly elections in 1995.

    

   CVC asks ministries for details of major contracts

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/1190503_CVC-asks-ministries-for-nbsp-details-of-major-contracts-

   New Delhi, Dec 14 (PTI) The Central Vigilance Commission has asked all the
   ministries to give details of all the works carried out by them during the
   past three months for its scrutiny.

    

   Official sources said that the anti-corruption watchdog has sought details
   of civil and electrical works done by the ministries besides other
   contracts valued at Rs two crore or above.

    

   "A reminder has been sent to Chief Vigilance Officers (CVOs) of all the
   ministries for strict compliance. They have been told to give details of
   all contracts (including tenders) and civil works done," a CVC official
   said.

    

   He said all the ministries, mainly dealing with Information Technology,
   Electronics and Telecommunications works, have been directed to comply
   with its order.

    

   The probity watchdog has specifically sought details of high-value
   projects, payment details, contractor details, third party examination
   report and tender documents in the past three months.

    

   Ex-CJI was aware of Raja influencing judge: SC Judge

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/1190420_Ex-CJI-was-aware-of-Raja-influencing-judge--SC-Judge-

   New Delhi, Dec 14 (PTI) In an embarrassment to former CJI K G
   Balakrishnan, Supreme Court Judge H L Gokhale today contradicted his claim
   that he was not aware that it was former Union Telecom Minister A Raja,
   who had tried to influence a Madras High Court judge in a criminal case.

    

   In a statement, Justice Gokhale, who was the chief justice of the Madras
   High Court at that time, said that in his letter to Justice Balakrishnan,
   the then CJI, he had clearly referred to the name of Raja.

    

   Justice Gokhale's statement totally contradicts Justice Balakrishnan's
   claim that there was no mention of any Union Minister in the report sent
   by Justice Gokhale, then High Court Chief Justice, on Justice S Reghupathi
   episode.

                        National Economic Trends        

    

   Inflation down to 7.48 pc in November

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/1190067_Inflation-down-to-7-48-pc-in-November

   New Delhi, Dec 14 (PTI) Continuing with its trend towards moderation,
   inflation declined to 7.48 per cent in November, mainly boosted by
   lowering of pressure on certain food items.

    

   Inflation had stood at 8.58 per cent in October. It was 4.50 per cent in
   November 2009.

    

   For September this year, the inflation figure has been revised upwards to
   8.93 per cent from the provisional number of 8.62 per cent.

    

   This is the fourth consecutive month when the overall inflation has been
   in the single digit. It had remained over 10 per cent for six months till
   July.

    

   As per the WPI data, prices of primary articles -- food, non-food articles
   and minerals -- shot up by 13 per cent on an annual basis.

    

   However, prices of certain food items declined on an year-on-year.

    

   While wheat became cheaper by 1.49 per cent, pulses fell by 8.

    

   RBI may hold policy rates as inflation declines: Rangarajan

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/RBI-may-hold-policy-rates-as-inflation-declines-Rangarajan/articleshow/7099198.cms

   NEW DELHI: Ahead of RBI's monetary policy this week, the Prime Minister's
   economic panel today said the central bank might hold key policy rates as
   inflation for November has fallen to 11-month low of 7.48 per cent.

    

   "...perhaps the declining trend in inflation might tilt in favour of
   holding on to the present situation," Prime Minister's Economic Advisory
   Council (PMEAC) Chairman C Rangarajan told PTI.

    

   RBI is slated to come out with its mid-quarterly monetary policy on
   December 16. Inflation declined to 7.48 per cent in November, mainly on
   falling prices of certain food items. Inflation was 8.58 per cent in
   October.

    

   To tame inflation, RBI had last month increased its short-term lending
   (repo) and borrowing (reverse repo) rates by 25 basis points each to 6.25
   per cent and 5.25 per cent.

    

   It was the sixth time this fiscal that the apex bank had raised key
   lending and borrowing rates to cool inflationary pressures in the economy.

    

   Going forward, Rangarajan said, RBI will watch inflation numbers for
   primary articles for the next two weeks and if the decline in inflation
   continues, it might hold key policy rates beyond this week's decision as
   well.

    

   "If this trend continues, perhaps the RBI may not initiate any action. But
   it all depends upon the trend noticed in the next two weeks," he added.

    

   Rangarajan said inflation is likely to decline to around 6.5 per cent by
   December-end and 5.5 per cent by March.

    

   "I think by end December, we might be closer to 6.5 per cent and perhaps
   by March 2011, something around 5.5 per cent," he added.

          Business, Energy or Environmental regulations or discussions

    

   Intel capital acquires shares worth USD 45 m in Omnesys Technologies

   http://www.newkerala.com/news/world/fullnews-104648.html

   Mumbai, Dec 14 : Intel Capital today announced that it has acquired shares
   worth USD 45 million in Omnesys Technologies, a Bangalore-based software
   development and consulting service provider.

    

   Talking to newsmen here, Arvind Sodhani, President of Intel Capital, said
   ''Intel Capital's acquisition of shares in Omnesys Technologies reflects
   the growing adoption of sophisticated, high-end compute platforms and
   reaffirms our commitment towards fostering innovation among entrepreneurs
   in India.'' This investment will create opportunties for Omnesys to
   connect with potential customers, and takes its product to securities
   markets around the world.

    

   The investment in Omnesys Technologies share is the eighth deal that Intel
   Capital has announced in India during 2010. The company has invested over
   USD 255 million in over 60 companies across ten cities.

    

   This fund invests in Indian tenchnology companies to help stimulate local
   technology innovation and the continued growth of India's information
   tenchnology industry.

    

   Intel capital, Intel's global investment organisation makes equity
   investment in innovative technolgy start-ups and companies worldwide.

    

   Neyveli in search for joint venture partner for overseas acquisitions

   http://www.thehindu.com/business/companies/article952218.ece

   State-owned Neyveli Lignite Corporation (NLC) is scouting for a joint
   venture partner to acquire coal blocks abroad.

    

   *NLC....plans to acquire and develop new coal blocks jointly,* the company
   said, inviting Expression of Interest (EoI) from reputed firms through
   global bids. It further added that it plans either acquisition or
   participation in development of coal blocks abroad.

    

   The move precedes the proposed share sale programme of the mini-ratna
   company next fiscal.

    

   The lignite-based power producer said the company was *desirous of
   undertaking these initiatives and to this end wishes to shortlist
   enterprises of repute, who would lend necessary direction and support to
   these initiatives.*

    

   The expression of interest closes on February 2, next year.

    

   The company, which at present generates 2,490 MW of power annually, plans
   to augment the capacity to about 4,300 MW by the year 2012. Also, it plans
   to more than double its lignite production capacity of 24 million tonnes
   per annum (MTPA) on completion of its expansion projects.

    

   The company projects under execution include a 1,000 MW thermal power
   project at Tuticorin, Tamil Nadu, a 500 MW extension of the Neyveli plant
   and a 50 MW wind power project.

    

   The firm achieved a marginal 1.65 per cent growth in lignite production at
   14.86 million tonnes (MT) during April-November 2010 over the year ago
   period. It had produced 14.62 MT of the dry fuel during April-November
   2009.

    

   It has a cash reserve of Rs. 6,000 crore and registered a profit after tax
   of Rs. 1,604.86 crore in FY*10 compared to Rs. 1,046.01 crore in the
   previous year.

    

   The PSU, which is under the administrative control of Ministry of Coal,
   plans share sale that may include the government diluting as much as 10
   per cent of the stake in it.

    

   At present the government holds a 93.56 per cent stake in the company.

    

   Neyveli Chairman and Managing Director A. R. Ansari last week said that
   the government has given in-principle approval for share sale by the PSU
   in the next fiscal.

    

   JSW Infra to raise $125 mn from stake sale to Eton

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/services/property-/-cstruction/JSW-Infra-to-raise-125-mn-from-stake-sale-to-Eton/articleshow/7099285.cms

   MUMBAI: JSW Infrastructure, part of the diversified JSW Group, said it
   will raise up to $125 million by selling a 10 percent stake to hedge fund
   Eton Park Capital to expand its ports business and pare debt.

    

   Eton Park manages about $13 billion and has offices in New York, London
   and Hong Kong and JM Financial was the sole financial advisor to the deal,
   it said in a statement.

    

   JSW Infra operates a port at Jaigarh in Maharashtra and at a terminal in
   Goa. It plans to eventually boost cargo handling capacity at Jaigarh to 50
   million tonnes from its current 20 million tonnes by 2020, Chief Executive
   Officer BVJK Sharma told reporters.

    

   "The investment by Eton Park will help us in achieving the vision of
   reaching 180 million tonnes of cargo handling capacity by 2020," Sharma
   said.

    

   JSW Infrastructure chairman, N.K. Jain, said the funds will also be used
   to retire about 2 billion rupees of debt from a total debt of about 5
   billion rupees.

    

   The JSW Group, which has interests across steel, energy, mining and
   infrastructure, is also in talks to develop port projects in Chile and
   Mozambique.

    

   The group plans to initially invest between $60 million to $100 million to
   develop a port in Caldera in Chile, which will help boost connectivity
   with iron ore mines.

    

   The company expects maritime and environmental clearances for the Chile
   project in the next 3 months and hopes to start development at the site in
   the next financial year.

    

   "The group has invested in iron ore mines in Chile. They will require
   proper logistics connectivity and at the same time optimise sea trade,"
   Sharma said.

    

   The JSW group is also in talks with the government of Mozambique to
   operate a port in Beira. It has drawn up a plan to invest roughly $150
   million in Mozambique, but the exact amount was not yet been decided,
   Sharma added.

    

   Huawei aims to invest over $2 bn in India in 5 years

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/telecom/Huawei-aims-to-invest-over-2-bn-in-India-in-5-years/articleshow/7099471.cms

   NEW DELHI: Chinese telecoms gear maker Huawei aims to invest more than $2
   billion in India over the next five years in areas including research and
   development and manufacturing, the company's India unit said on Tuesday.

    

   Huawei will build a new research and development facility in Bangalore, it
   said in a statement.

    

   NTPC to pick up controlling stakes in projects in Jharkhand

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/energy/power/NTPC-to-pick-up-controlling-stakes-in-projects-in-Jharkhand/articleshow/7097878.cms

   NEW DELHI: Country's largest power producer NTPC today said it would pick
   up 76 per cent equity each in two thermal power projects in Jharkhand.

    

   "We are in talks with Jharkhand government to pick up stakes in Patratu
   and Tenughat," NTPC CMD Arup Roy Choudhary told reporters here.

    

   He said the undertaking would pick up 76 per cent equity in these two
   projects which have a combine capacity of 2,640 MW.

    

   "Right now I can only say the talks are on between us and Jharkhand
   government", Choudhary said.

    

   These power projects have coal linkages and are running on very low
   efficiency level.

    

   Apollo Munich Health eyes premium income of Rs 210 crore

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/personal-finance/insurance/insurance-news/Apollo-Munich-Health-eyes-premium-income-of-Rs-210-crore/articleshow/7098083.cms

   CHENNAI: Standalone health insurer Apollo Munich Health Insurance Company
   is hoping to close this fiscal with a premium income of Rs.210 crore (over
   $46 million) and also expand its branch and agency network.

    

   Anthony Jacob, the company's CEO, said: "The business growth is good this
   fiscal as compared to the previous year. We are hoping to close the year
   with a premium income of Rs.210 crore."

    

   Last fiscal the company closed its books with a premium income of Rs.114
   crore.

    

   He said the company will be expanding its distribution reach by opening 15
   more branches in a year's time, taking the total number of branches to 55.

    

   "We will also be increasing the number of agents by 6,000 to 18,000,"
   Jacob said.

    

   Though the company underwrites travel and personal accident insurance
   business, Jacob said those lines contribute just 10 percent to the overall
   business.

    

   According to Jacob, the company's overall loss ratio is at around 65-70
   percent and that is as per its plans. Even in the group health insurance
   business, the company has a loss ratio of around 85 percent, he said.

    

   During the first half of the current fiscal, Apollo Munich earned a gross
   premium of Rs.87.4 crore and the net premium after reinsurance stood at
   Rs.59.7 crore.

    

   The gross claims stood at around Rs.40 crore and the net claims Rs.37.2
   crore. The net loss stood at Rs.39.7 crore.

    

   According to Jacob, the company is expected to break even by 2012-13.

    

   For the first half of the year, the company's investment portfolio stood
   at around Rs.157 crore.

    

   PM concerned over ethical deficit among sections of India Inc

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics/nation/PM-concerned-over-ethical-deficit-among-sections-of-India-Inc/articleshow/7099437.cms

   NEW DELHI: Amid charges for flouting environment laws by some influential
   business houses, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh today said there was a
   perceived "ethical deficit" among some corporates which need to follow
   fair means in their pursuit.

    

   "I am sure, business leaders are aware that business practices of some
   corporate houses have recently come under intense public scrutiny for
   their perceived ethical deficit," he said while addressing captains of
   industry at India Corporate Week 2010 function here.

    

   Some leading industrial houses, mainly engaged in mining and real estate
   are facing charges of violating environmental laws, while a few others are
   under public eye for intensive lobbying to influence government policies.

    

   Expressing concern over the way natural resources are being used by
   industry, Singh said, they need to be "sensitive to the needs and
   aspiration of common man ... for their long term survival."

    

   The Prime Minister cautioned that in absence of adequate resettlement and
   rehabilitation of project displaced people, faith in industrialisation may
   erode.

    

   "Our growth process must not suffer because of loss of confidence in
   industrialisation and development. We need policies and interventions that
   would minimise livelihood disruptions."

    

   He said increased employability of population through skill development
   must be central to corporate strategy.

    

   Singh said "ethical and responsible behaviour needs to become the
   cornerstone of corporate behaviour, as indeed our national outlook".

    

   Recalling the words of the Father of Nation, he said, "Mahatma Gandhi
   repeatedly emphasised the importance of not only good ends but also the
   use of fair means to attain them.

    

   It is the large companies that have to set the pace in this regard. The
   rest of the corporate sector will quickly follow as a norm."

    

   The companies, he added, must adopt environment friendly measures and
   "avoid taking shortcuts" which can adversely impact livelihood of the
   local populace.

    

   The prominent industry leaders present at the function included CII
   President Hari S Bhartiya, Assocham President Dilip Modi, Ficci past
   president and Apollo Tyre chief Onkar S Kanwar and Bajaj Auto chairman and
   Rajya Sabha member Rahul Bajaj.

    

    

   Vedanta Shareholders approve deal with Cairn

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/indl-goods-/-svs/metals--mining/Vedanta-Shareholders-approve-deal-with-Cairn/articleshow/7098816.cms

   NEW DELHI: Shareholders of Vedanta Resources Plc have approved the
   proposed acquisition of majority stake in Cairn India for up to USD 9.6
   billion, said an official of the London-listed mining group.

    

   "The shareholders approved the transaction at an extraordinary general
   meeting (EGM) in London yesterday," said the official.

    

   Vedanta on August 16 announced buying the Edinburgh- based Cairn Energy
   Plc's 40-51 per cent stake in its Indian unit and an additional 20 per
   cent through an open offer to minority shareholders of Cairn India.

    

   According to the official, to fund the deal Vedanta has secured a
   syndicated term loan of up to USD 3.5 billion from a consortia of banks.
   It has taken two bridge loans of USD 1.5 billion and USD 1 billion to
   finance the transaction.

    

   The company has missed the earlier deadline of seeking shareholders'
   approval by October 30 as per the schedule laid out by UK's Cairn Energy.

    

   Billionaire Anil Agarwal-run Vedanta in the circular for the EGM stated
   that the transaction is to be completed by April 15, 2011.

    

   Oil Minister Murli Deora had yesterday stated that the government will by
   March 2011 decide on giving approval to the Cairn-Vedanta deal.

    

   After denying government role for months, Cairn had only late last month
   made applications for approval for transfer of control in all the 10
   properties held by its Indian unit.

    

   In the circular, Agarwal stated, "The acquisition is also subject to any
   required government of India consents having been given."

    

   Vedanta also hopes to get Indian market regulator SEBI's nod for acquiring
   an additional 20 per cent stake from minority shareholders of Cairn India
   by month-end and may launch an open offer in the early part of January,
   2011.

    

   Besides the shareholder nod, the deal is also conditional on completion of
   the open offer. It will lapse if the conditions are not satisfied or
   waived on or before April 15.

    

   Sources said that if the government's nod was to come by March, it would
   be well within the April 15, 2011, deadline set by Cairn and Vedanta for
   closure of the transaction.

    

   In the circular, Agarwal said the acquisition would establish Vedanta as a
   leading player in the Indian oil and gas sector. "The acquisition will
   allow Vedanta to apply its core skills of project management and
   development of reserves and resources in conjunction with the technical
   knowledge and capabilities of Cairn India."

    

   Cairn Energy had in October secured its shareholders' approval for selling
   most of its 62.38 per cent stake in the Indian unit, while Sesa Group, a
   Vedanta Group firm that will make an open offer for a 20 per cent stake in
   Cairn India, obtained approval from its shareholders on October 18.

    

   India may allow FDI in multi-brand retail in 3 mths- Pantaloon

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/services/retailing/India-may-allow-FDI-in-multi-brand-retail-in-3-mths--Pantaloon/articleshow/7099187.cms

   NEW DELHI: The Indian government may allow foreign direct investment in
   multi-brand retail in the next three months, a Pantaloon Retail (India)
   Ltd executive said on Tuesday.

    

   "We are hopeful," said Kishore Biyani , managing director of Pantaloon,
   India's largest listed retailer.

    

   Biyani, who is also group CEO of the Future Group, said he expects the
   government to issue clarifications soon on opening up FDI in multi-brand
   retail as well as in certain retail segments.

    

   Current Indian regulations do not allow FDI in multi-brand retail.

    

   Infosys to focus on emerging countries

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/ites/Infosys-to-focus-on-emerging-countries/articleshow/7099235.cms

   KOCHI: IT Major Infosys Technologies would be focussing on emerging
   countries, including Brazil, China and India, a top official of the
   company today said.

    

   'We are focussing on emerging countries as Brazil, China and India. We are
   increasing sales bandwith with these countries to grow business', Infosys
   Managing Director and CEO, Kris Gopalakrishnan, told reporters here on the
   sidelines of ICT summit.

    

   It will take some time. The growth was faster in US and UK. US constitues
   62 per cent of the company's revenues and in the next 5-10 years it should
   be constitute only 40 per cent and other countries should grow faster, he
   said.

    

   Infosys would be recruiting about 40,000 employees this year and they
   would be deployed across the country.

    

   Asked about his views on the ethics of corporate lobbying using
   politicians and media in the backdrop of the controversy over the Neera
   Radia tapes leakage, Gopakarishnan said he did not want to be judgemental
   about these things. 'Where does the line cross from advocacy to undue
   lobbying. We, including the media, need to discuss it and then come to a
   conclusion'.

    

   Kerala has also invested in lot of IT parks. They are doing well, he said
   adding 'we should look at how to create a brand around the industry in
   kerala to make it more attractive to propective investors'.

    

   Asked if Infosys had plans to set up campus at kochi, he said it had a
   campus at Thiruvananthapuram housing two buildings and would be focussing
   on that. 'We want to focus on that campus and that should become icon for
   Infosys in kerala'.

    

   Though Nasscom had predicted a 13-15 per cent growth in the IT industry
   this year, but the industry growth could touch around 25-30 per cent,
   Gopalakrishnan said.

    

   Gopakrishnan said he was 'completely satisfied' with the human resource
   personnel in kerala. There are of very high quality. Fortyfive customers
   of Infosys are being serviced from thiruvananthapuram, he said.

    

   Asked about the uncertainty of the Kochi Smart city IT Infrastructure
   project with the Dubai based Tecom yet to start work, Gopalakrsihnan,who
   is also the CII southern regional chairman, said he was confident that the
   government would take the right step to resovle the issue. 'We have to
   trust the government to do the right thing'.

    

   On whether the project delay had affected Kerala's image, he said 'yes and
   no'. 'We should put it behind either way and go ahead with other
   projects', he said.

    

   Asked if he felt Kerala was an investment friendly state, Gopalakrishan's
   response was positive.

    

   'Our experience was very good. We had been supported by governments. That
   is why Wipro, TCS and Infosys are all here and all are expanding'.

    

           Activity in the Oil and Gas sector (including regulatory)

    

   Hike of Rs 1-2/litre in petrol price likely this week

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/energy/oil--gas/Hike-of-Rs-1-2/litre-in-petrol-price-likely-this-week/articleshow/7099283.cms

   NEW DELHI: A hike of Re 1-2 per litre in petrol prices is on cards this
   week following international crude oil prices touching USD 90 per barrel
   mark.

    

   "We would have raised petrol price yesterday ... we had the oil ministry
   consent to hike prices by Rs 1.90-1.95 per litre immediately after the
   winter session of Parliament ended yesterday, but at the last moment we
   are asked to wait for one or two more days," an official of IndianOil
   (IOC), the nation's largest fuel retailer, said.

    

   IOC and other state retailers Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL) and Bharat
   Petroleum (BPCL) are losing Rs 4.17 per litre on selling petrol as raw
   material (crude oil) cost has climbed to USD 90 per barrel.

    

   A similar hike in diesel rates is likely to be considered by an Empowered
   Group of Ministers headed by Pranab Mukherjee on December 22.

    

   The basket of crude oil India buys was at USD 89.34 per barrel yesterday.
   It has averaged USD 88.47 per barrel in December as against about USD 79 a
   barrel at the time of last hike in petrol price on November 9.

    

   "International prices are on the rise leading to widening of gap between
   domestic retail price and their cost of production," he said, adding the
   oil firms were pushing for about Rs 2.50 per litre hike in prices while
   the political leadership is willing to concede only Rs 0.95-1.05 a litre.

    

   Even though petrol price was freed from the government control in June,
   state-run retailers informally consult the oil ministry before revising
   domestic rates.

    

   They had on November 9 raised petrol price by Rs 0.32 per litre to Rs
   52.91 a litre in Delhi even through the desired increase was about Rs 1.1
   per litre.

    

   Since June 26, when petrol price was deregulated, IOC, BPCL and HPCL have
   revised rates only four times even though the crude oil has jumped from
   USD 73-74 per barrel at that time to USD 90 a barrel currently, the
   official said.

    

   On diesel, the three firms are losing about Rs 5 a litre. A fuel price
   hike was planned after the winter session of Parliament ended on December
   13. The last hike in petrol price on November 9 had happened just before
   the winter session of Parliament began.

    

   If prices are not revised, IOC, BPCL and HPCL are likely to end the fiscal
   with close to Rs 67,000 crore revenue loss on sale of diesel, domestic LPG
   and kerosene below cost.

    

   The oil retailers lose Rs 272.19 on the sale of every 14.2-kg LPG cylinder
   and Rs 17.72 per litre of kerosene.

Militant Activity/Terrorism (Particularly in Bangalore, Mumbai, Noida, Chennai,
                                  Coimbatore)

    

   Maoists amass Rs 2500 cr through extortion

   http://news.webindia123.com/news/articles/India/20101214/1649130.html

   Kolkata | Tuesday, Dec 14 2010 IST

    

    

    

    

   A huge amount of Rs 2,500 crore is believed to be the backbone of the
   underground Maoists, who, with a massive firepower, have engaged security
   forces in fierce battles in different states across the country.

    

   The fund has been raised largely through extortion and ransom in eight
   states over the past one year.

    

   The startling revelation has been made in a report of the central
   Intelligence Bureau, circulated among the home departments of these eight
   states-- West Bengal, Orissa, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra,
   Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

    

   Quoting the report, sources said the funds are generally utilised in
   procuring sophisticated arms like Insas and AK-series rifles, besides
   explosives like RDX, various communication gadgets and accessories from
   different parts of the country and abroad.

    

   ''A large part of the funds is also used to run training camps for the new
   recruits,'' the report said.

    

   The major chunk of the collection comes from extortion, ransom and levies
   slapped on businessmen and traders, the sources said.

    

   This apart, the banned outfit has also taken to illegal opium farming over
   vast tracts of land, which adds money to its coffers.

    

   Going by the break up of collection, Jharkhand, West Bengal and
   Chhattisgarh - three worst affected states are said to have contributed
   more than 80 per cent of the total fund raised over one year.

    

   While the Maoists have reportedly collected Rs 1,000 crore from Jharkhand,
   Rs 550 crore from West Bengal and Rs 500 crore from Chhattisgarh.

    

   Rs 200 crore has been collected from Bihar, Rs 100 crore came from Andhra
   Pradesh followed by Maharashtra (Rs 78 crore), Orissa (Rs 37 crore) and
   Tamil Nadu (Rs 35 crore), the sources said.

    

   The report said Indian Maoists had also built up links with their
   counterparts and several other extremist organisation in Nepal,
   Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and the Phillippines.

    

   PC appeals to insurgents for talks

   http://news.webindia123.com/news/articles/India/20101214/1649132.html

   Umsaw (Meghalaya) | Tuesday, Dec 14 2010 IST

    

    

    

    

   Union Home Minister P Chidambaram today appealed to various insurgent
   groups to come forward for talks, even as he expressed satisfaction that
   most rebel groups in the North East are currently engaged in dialogue with
   the Centre.

    

   ''In the last two years, the Central government has taken various steps to
   welcome any group willing to give up arms and live in peace as violence
   has no place in a democracy,'' Mr Chidambaram said at the Passing Out
   Parade of the 36th batch basic course trainees at the North Eastern Police
   Academy (NEPA) here.

    

   Stating that North Eastern states occupy a special place in the country
   with their unique cultural heritage, the Union Minister said, ''there is a
   need to respect such heritage with its rich plurality. We must learn to
   live together in the midst of such diversity.

    

   ''The region and its people have a glorious future,'' he opined, while
   urging the police fraternity to give all protection to the people of the
   region.

    

   Describing NEPA as a 'novel academy', Mr Chidambaram, who was here on a
   maiden visit, announced Rs 85 crore to improve the infrastructure of the
   police academy, which he hoped will complete all the pending work by March
   2013.

    

   ''The ministry plans to make NEPA a Centre of Excellence to become a model
   institution for similar centres,'' he asserted.

    

   Established in 1978, NEPA provides training to the police personnel of
   North Eastern States Police Organisations. It has trained more than 500
   police officers on an average per year.

    

   Since inception, 10,732 police officers have been trained and during 2010,
   919 police officers from different states of the country have been
   trained.

    

   Earlier, the Union Home Minister saluted the Guard of Honour at the
   passing out parade in presence of Meghalaya Chief Minister Mukul Sangma.

    

   Altogther 179 trainees, consisting of 20 DySPs (Prob) and 159 Cadet SIs,
   from the NE States (Manipur 134, Mizoram 1, Tripura 11, Meghalaya 22,
   Nagaland 5, Arunachal Pradesh 1 and Assam 5) passed out today, with a
   predominance of women trainees.

    

   CPI-Maoist cadres kill 120 CPI-M workers in Bengal this year

   http://www.rediff.com/news/report/cpi-maoist-cadres-kill-120-cpi-m-workers-in-bengal-this-year/20101214.htm

   December 14, 2010 14:47 IST

   The tussle between cadres of the Communist Party of India-Maoist and
   CPI-Marxist has taken an ugly turn in West Bengal with as many as 120
   CPI-M workers being selectively identified, abducted and killed by Maoists
   in the past 11 months.

   Security agencies fear these 'political killings' would intensify in 2011
   after the dates for state assembly elections are announced and Maoists
   would also try to disrupt the elections.

    

   The home ministry has already acknowledged the presence of armed camps in
   West Bengal and members of these camps are often seen carrying arms.

    

   "The situation in West Bengal is extremely bad and it will be worse during
   elections. The situation is like a civil war, where one section of people
   is trying to harm and kill another set of political workers. Although the
   state government must ensure law and order in the state, the state is in
   turmoil because of these selective killings," said a senior home ministry
   official.

    

   Sources in the home ministry also said of the 312 people killed in West
   Bengal this year, almost 40 per cent were victims of Maoists. The rise in
   violence levels can also be gauged from the fact that in 2009, only 134
   people had died in Maoist-related violence in the state.

    

   "The crackdown against Maoists is continuing by the state police and
   jungle warfare teams of paramilitary, but we are expecting a rise in
   violence levels soon," added the official.

    

   Only nine Maoists were killed in 2009, but this year, more than 60 have
   been killed and over 400 have either been arrested or surrendered to the
   security forces.

    

   The security forces have recovered around 432 kilograms of explosives from
   different districts of West Bengal.

    

   Spl teams to locate 31 Indian Mujahideen men

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/1190794_Spl-teams-to-locate-31-Indian-Mujahideen-men-

   New Delhi, Dec 14 (PTI) In an offensive against cadres of Indian
   Mujahideen, the Government has formed special teams to locate 31 most
   wanted men of the banned outfit, whose list has been circulated to all
   states and union territories.

    

   According to official sources, these special teams will make "concerted
   efforts" to apprehend the absconding IM terrorists within the country and
   coordinate with foreign countries where they are suspected to be holed in.

    

   The Union Home Ministry prepared a complete set of the 31 absconding
   Indian Mujahideen cadres and circulated it to all the states and union
   territories for gaining more and more information about them.

    

   The detailed dossiers about the IM militants along with photographs have
   also been shared with a few Gulf countries as intelligence inputs
   suggested that some of them were currently based there their with
   Pakistani passports.

    

   2 CRPF jawans among 6 persons injured in militant attack

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/1190764_2-CRPF-jawans-among-6-persons-injured-in-militant-attack

   Srinagar, Dec 14 (PTI) Six persons, including two CRPF jawans, were today
   injured in a grenade attack by militants on a bunker in Pulwama district
   of Kashmir, police said.

    

   Ultras lobbed a grenade at the mobile bunker vehicle of 182 Battalion CRPF
   in Pulwama town, 32 kms from here, resulting in injuries to three men, a
   woman and two CRPF personnel, Superintendent of Police Pulwama Abdul Razak
   told PTI.

    

   The attack took place when Chief Minister Omar Abdullah was chairing the
   district development board meeting for Pulwama less than a kilometre away,
   official sources said.

    

   The blast caused panic among the passers as security forces cordoned off
   the area, they said, adding normalcy was restored within 30 minutes.

    

   No militant outfit has claimed responsibility for the attack so far.

                              Labor/Social Unrest

    

    

    

    

    

    

    

    

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2010-12-14 14:49:14</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-11 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1972067_-ct-india-country-brief-101214-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>os@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mesa@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>animeshroul@gmail.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1972784</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] UK Plot - Do we have the target list?
</title>
    <description>   US embassy in London was a target of UK suspects
   http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/us-embassy-in-london-was-a-target-of-uk-suspects/
   12.27.10

   WASHINGTON, Dec 27 (Reuters) - The U.S. embassy in London was a target of
   a group of men arrested last week in Britain and charged with conspiracy
   to cause explosions and preparing acts of terrorism, the U.S. State
   Department said on Monday.

   Twelve men were arrested on Dec. 20 in what British police said were
   counter-terrorism raids essential to protect the public from the threat of
   attack. [ID:nLDE6BQ08O]

   Three were later released without charges, leaving nine who appeared in
   court on Monday to face the charges.

   Asked if he was aware of reports the suspects indicated that the U.S.
   embassy in London was on their target list, State Department spokesman
   Mark Toner told reporters: "I am aware and ... obviously our folks in
   London are aware of this."

   In response to a follow-up question during a telephone briefing with
   reporters, Toner said: "You asked me if we were aware that we were on the
   targeting list and I confirmed that."

   The suspects were from London, the Welsh capital of Cardiff and the
   central English city of Stoke.

   A British police statement said the men had conspired to cause "explosions
   of a nature likely to endanger life or cause serious injury to property".

   It added they had been downloading material from the Internet, researching
   and discussing potential targets, carrying out reconnaissance and
   "igniting and testing incendiary material".

   The police statement did not specify what the potential targets were.
   (Editing by Mohammad Zargham)

   On 12/27/10 11:36 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

 For example, you can input an image of a terrorist and search for the
 suspect at other sites, if you suspect surveillance.

 License plate readers are also heavy inside London.  

 Fred Burton wrote:

 London Stock Exchange is protected by heavy surveillance coverages
 (TrapWire) and predictive software.

 Sean Noonan wrote:
  

 They haven't allowed the details to be released.  All I've seen is the
 London Stock Exchange and "The Guardian website has said shops, banks
 and "iconic targets" in London were on a list of sites for bombing. "

 -shopping centers and gov't buildings

 On 12/27/10 10:56 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
    

 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-12081828

 They are alleged to have done this by carrying out reconnaissance,
 agreeing potential targets, downloading and researching materials and
 igniting and testing incendiary material.
    
      

 --

 Sean Noonan

 Tactical Analyst

 Office: +1 512-279-9479

 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

 www.stratfor.com

    

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-27 20:41:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1972784_re-ct-uk-plot-do-we-have-the-target-list-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.wilson@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1973411</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] Julian Assange like a hi-tech terrorist, says Joe Biden
</title>
    <description>Opinions are like arseholes:  Everyone has one and they all stink. 

Why may ask lad is the case being handled by FBI CT and not CI? 

Material witness warrant has already been made.  Deaths have already
occurred from what I've been told.  Trying to find out where. 

---------------------------------------------------------

scott stewart wrote:
&gt; Like most things Joe Biden says, I strongly disagree with this
&gt; characterization. 
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt; From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
&gt; Sent: Wednesday, December 22, 2010 9:14 AM
&gt; To: CT AOR; 'TACTICAL'
&gt; Subject: Julian Assange like a hi-tech terrorist, says Joe Biden
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;   ** Like I had cited before, he can be prosecuted under the terrorism
&gt;   statutes. Wiki is a terrorist organization.
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;   Julian Assange like a hi-tech terrorist, says Joe Biden
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; The US vice-president, Joe Biden
&gt; &lt;http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/joebiden&gt;, today likened the WikiLeaks
&gt; &lt;http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/wikileaks&gt; founder, Julian Assange
&gt; &lt;http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/julian-assange&gt;, to a "hi-tech
&gt; terrorist", the strongest criticism yet from the Obama administration.
&gt;
&gt; Biden claimed that by leaking diplomatic cables Assange had put lives at
&gt; risk and made it more difficult for the US to conduct its business
&gt; around the world.
&gt;
&gt; His description of Assange shows a level of irritation that contrasts
&gt; with more sanguine comments from other senior figures in the White
&gt; House, who said the leak had not done serious damage.
&gt;
&gt; Interviewed on NBC's Meet the Press, Biden was asked if the
&gt; administration could prevent further leaks, as Assange warned last week.
&gt; "We are looking at that right now. The justice department is taking a
&gt; look at that," Biden said, without elaborating.
&gt;
&gt; The justice department is struggling to find legislation with which to
&gt; prosecute Assange.
&gt;
&gt; Asked if what Assange had done was criminal, Biden seemed to suggest it
&gt; would be considered criminal if it could be established that the
&gt; WikiLeaks founder had encouraged or helped Bradley Manning, the US
&gt; intelligence analyst suspected of being behind the leak. Biden claimed
&gt; this was different from a journalist receiving leaked material.
&gt;
&gt; "If he conspired to get these classified documents with a member of the
&gt; US military that is fundamentally different than if someone drops on
&gt; your lap . you are a press person, here is classified material."
&gt;
&gt; Asked if he saw Assange as closer to a hi-tech terrorist than the
&gt; whistleblower who released the Pentagon papers in the 1970s, which
&gt; disclosed the lie on which US involvement in Vietnam was based, Biden
&gt; replied: "I would argue it is closer to being a hi-tech terrorist than
&gt; the Pentagon papers. But, look, this guy has done things that have
&gt; damaged and put in jeopardy the lives and occupations of people in other
&gt; parts of the world.
&gt;
&gt; "He's made it more difficult for us to conduct our business with our
&gt; allies and our friends. For example, in my meetings - you know I meet
&gt; with most of these world leaders - there is a desire now to meet with me
&gt; alone, rather than have staff in the room. It makes things more
&gt; cumbersome - so it has done damage."
&gt;
&gt; The interview, though broadcast yesterday, was conducted on Friday. In
&gt; an interview the previous day, he had been more neutral about WikiLeaks,
&gt; saying: "I don't think there's any substantive damage."
&gt;
&gt; The US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, led criticism of the
&gt; WikiLeaks revelations at the end of November when she accused the
&gt; website of mounting an "attack" on the world.
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;   
</description>
    <date>2010-12-22 15:20:27</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-21 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1973411_re-ct-julian-assange-like-a-hi-tech-terrorist-says-joe-biden.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1973475</id>
    <title>[TACTICAL] Fw: Surveillance Case Study
</title>
    <description>Nailed by TrapWire.

------Original Message------
From: Michael Maness
To: Fred Burton {6}
Subject: RE: Surveillance Case Study
Sent: Jan 5, 2011 4:51 PM

Thanks Fred. We cite this event quite often during our UK visits. 
It's actually been one of the major selling points for us.

Happy 2011.   Mike

-----Original Message-----
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Sent: Wednesday, January 05, 2011 3:56 PM
To: Michael Maness
Subject: Surveillance Case Study 





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  <doc>
    <id>1974554</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror
 Threat
</title>
    <description>   thank you.
    just wanted to add more of the timeline clarification

   - Monday 11/15, FBI sends cable to Germany
   - soon after Nova calls in (there were three phone calls and this probably
   wasn't the first one based on the short period of time
   - Wednesday 11/17, Germany decides to announce a heightened threat level
   based on the caller's information
   - Monday 11/22 - Reichstag partially closed even though intelligence
   points to the attack taking place in either Feb or March (three months
   later)

   Sean Noonan wrote:

     Great work, Jaclyn

     the other interesting issue here is the CI issue from the attacker's
     perspective.  They've gotta be hunting this "Nova" down, no matter how
     accurate his story is. 

     On 11/22/10 1:16 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       including Eurasia on this one. 

       Where else do germans get weapons?
       On 11/22/10 1:13 PM, Ben West wrote:

         Interesting parts I think are facts that balkan criminals were
         implicated in smuggilng weapons and that Dawood Ibrahim was also
         implicated. Lots of shady stuff comes out of the Balkans, so getting
         weapons to Germany from there would be no easy task.

         Also, I'm not sure what role Dawood would play in this scenario.
         Remember Indian officials blamed him for working with naxalites a
         few months back but didn't offer much evidence. He's an all around
         south asian bogeyman - any reference to him sends a clear message
         that somebody is up to no good.

         On 11/22/2010 1:01 PM, Jaclyn Blumenfeld wrote:

           Here are some of the thoughts and inconsistencies I found - I had
           summarized the der spiegel to pick out the bits I found important
           and added some info from other OS articles in blue.

           -Call from abroad (likely Pakistan) from "Nova" a terrorist
           wanting to surrender and return to his family in Germany
           -now working with German Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) and
           was reason behind threat increase on Wednesday, so far three calls
           have taken place between "Nova" and BKA
           -warned of small group attacking Reichstag on Monday and security
           has since been increased, authorities are secretly monitoring
           communications, conducting surveillance operations and launching
           undercover investigations.
           According to "NOVA":
           -AQ and associate groups (Pakistan's Islamic Jihad Group) planning
           together in Pakistan for attack(s) in Germany.
           -One idea was to remotely detonate a bomb using a mobile phone.
           Another called for a small group of terrorists to storm the
           Reichstag with guns blazing, take hostages and end everything in
           one calamitous bloodbath.
           -Plan called for the terrorists to procure the submachine guns,
           automatic rifles, explosives and whatever else they would need in
           the Balkans.
           -He said that two men had already traveled to Germany six to eight
           weeks earlier, adding that one had the nom de guerre of "Abu
           Mohammed" and that the other one was a German of Turkish origin
           -Both apparently had roots in the Greater Berlin metropolitan
           area, were currently unemployed and living off of welfare payments
           and had immersed themselves in the anonymity provided by a major
           city -- until the time should come for their activation.
           -Four others involved were waiting to travel to Germany at
           training camps in Pakistan - including a German, a Turk, a North
           African and another jihadist of unknown identity
           -Attack slated for February or March (if German intel had this
           knowledge why would they close the Reichstag today? are they
           sending a statement to AQ and affiliate group that they are aware
           and ahead of the planning?)

           According to FBI (which was recieved shortly before the call from
           "Nova" (there are some inconsistencies between the intelligence)
           - FBI included warnings about the obscure Indian group "Saif"
           which although Shiite had allegedly made pact with AQ and sent
           five men to Pakistan for training - what the connection to the
           Germany plot not specified - the 6 members described in the
           Reichstag plot were described by caller as various nationalities -
           none Indian)
           -FBI also shared that two members with visas allowing them to
           travel freely in EU schengen zone were already enroute to Germany
           and would enter via UAE on Nov 22  (compared to caller saying that
           two had already entered two weeks prior - time gap - so maybe
           there are four now in Germany unless FBI intel was outdated and
           the men came earlier - or caller was not accurate?)
           -FBI warnings claim the two in Germany were dispatched by Dawood
           Ibrahim Kaskar, an Indian organised crime baron linked to al-Qaeda
           based out of Karachi (this seems out of place - two mentions by
           the FBI of an Indian connection)
           -One of the men is supposedly named "Khan" (versus caller's info
           he was named Abu Muhammed and the second guy was of Turkish
           descent - Khan is not Turkish, Khan and Abu Muhammed could be the
           same guy though)

           Ben West wrote:

             Europeans have still found a way to blame Americans for warnings
             in the past.

             And yes, something very well could be in the works, but given
             the fact that jihadists constantly want to attack the west, is
             it really at all significant that something is in the works?

             I think we'd seen past plots with travel plans... I'd have to
             look harder to get specifics, but I don't think that's all that
             novel.

             Agree that the security officials are in a catch-22 situation.

             On 11/22/2010 11:43 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

               There is a notable difference here.  And that is the German
               warning issued last week.  It was based on their own
               intelligence not American intelligence--so no blaming
               americans this time.  Yes, it's true that they don't have the
               capability to attack the Reichstag, and theat the attack is
               not imminent, as I pointed out.  But on the other hand, like
               with cargo parcels, it doesn't mean that something is not in
               the works.  Have we ever seen information this specific before
               on the individuals and their travel plans? 

               This is the conundrum of warning intelligence,  when the
               warning is given (just to policymakers, or to the public),
               measures are taken that prevent it.  It then comes the
               boy-who-cried-wolf, even if the warning was originally
               accurate. 

               Not to mention, given what happened with the last double agent
               to become public (Khost), it will be interesting to follow
               this one. 
               On 11/22/10 11:33 AM, Ben West wrote:

                 I agree that the spiegel article was good - but this is the
                 kind of thing we've seen over and over again in Europe.
                 Source from durkastan says that aq is going to target Europe
                 and kill lots of people and that attackers are en route.
                 Everyone gets freaked out. Nothing significant happens.
                 Europe blames US of scare mongering.

                 Certainly islamists have europe in their cross-hairs, but if
                 an attack is going to happen, it's not going be preceded by
                 this kind of publicity.

                 Also, attacking the reichstag? I mean, it's possible to
                 ATTACK it, but they've got a pretty heavy security presence
                 there that would prevent a hostage situation. I was there a
                 few years ago. The public entryway is confined to one
                 doorway with a heavy guard presence, metal detectors, x-ray
                 machines, etc. If anything, an attack could kill lots of
                 tourists lined up outside, but it would take a very serious
                 force to be able to gain entrance to the reichstag and an
                 even more well trained force to actually hold hostages. This
                 sounds like a pipe-dream to me.

                 On 11/22/2010 11:04 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                   thoughts?

                   On 11/22/10 11:00 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

                     It is up to you and CT how you approach this. On the
                     short-term, this looks like something you can handle
                     without me. If you want to dabble in the more long-term
                     view of what is going on here, I would love to help.

                     On 11/22/10 10:58 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

                       In the more long-term, I think an analysis of the
                       German intelligence agencies would be good too. They
                       have been pretty decimated by the Cold War and by all
                       the problems associated with running an intelligence
                       agency in a post-Gestapo country. If Germany is ever
                       going to become a world power again, however, they
                       would need to overcome these deamons as well. That is
                       sort of the last straw for Germany, the one that is
                       going to be most sensitive to overcome. But perhaps
                       this case may illustrate how they are already
                       overcoming these issues.

                       On 11/22/10 10:50 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                         Main problem is that Der Spiegel is just that good,
                         they've at least touched on most of what I would
                         want to say about it.  The main thing here is how
                         the politics of a terror threat/alert coincide with
                         the reality of the threat itself. 

                         We saw that Germany was fairly relaxed bout the
                         earlier threat in Europe released by the US.  I'm
                         not sure if that was the same as the info that the
                         FBI passed over about this shia group, Saif (I don't
                         know anything about them).  But something changed,
                         as we noted last week in their interpretation.  That
                         seems to go down to this virtual walk-in.  The one
                         thing I was left confused about is whether BKA had
                         ever been in contact with this source before.  It
                         sounds like he cold called them.  It's common
                         knowledge that walk-ins, rather than recruits, are
                         nearly always the best sources.  But at the same
                         time, they are very suspicious as double agents.  If
                         this was a US source they would be freaking the fuck
                         out after having Al-Balawi turn on them.  The
                         germans seem to have cooler heads, but they will be
                         working 24/7 to verify the source (let me make
                         another plug for John Lecarre's A Most Wanted Man
                         here, most of his career was in Germany). 

                         They've clearly got enough corroborating information
                         that they consider this a real threat.  But
                         politically they are faced with the universal
                         'damned if you do, damned if you don't' alert
                         problem.  If the Interior ministry doesn't say
                         something, they will be liable if an attack occurs. 
                         Look at the constant press over information on the
                         warning intelligence for Mumbai.  As we've said
                         before, simply issuing the warning may help to deter
                         the attackers. 

                         The real important bit here, is that it seems the
                         germans have fairly good intelligence.  While this
                         attack is still not happening tomorrow, they have a
                         lot of details about what might be in the works,
                         rather than a single-source intercept that indicates
                         some vague threat.  It seems they've increased
                         security pretty well at the Bundestag, and want to
                         add to the presence at any possible target.  This is
                         where we seem them scrambling, and where their
                         intelligence holes are. 

                         The task now for the germans is to verify this
                         source.  Maybe even pick him up and put him on ice
                         somewhere (Fred/Stick?), not in GErmany but in
                         Pakistan/Afghanistan.  That will require some
                         cooperation with either/both the Americans and
                         Pakistanis.  They also need to verify all the bio
                         information they have on these 4-6 guys trying to
                         get into germany and watch travelers very
                         carefully.  The germans seem to be very good at
                         surveilling these threats within Germany, so their
                         best luck may come when one of the guys overseas
                         contacts a local already under surveillance. 

                         At minimum, this could be a pretty interesting
                         tearline this week.  Both the walk-in issues and the
                         CIA/FBI liaison conflicts that I havne't gotten into
                         here. 
                         On 11/22/10 10:34 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

                           Any thoughts on where you guys are thinking of
                           going with this?

                           Der Spiegel article is indeed interesting.

                           On 11/22/10 9:28 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                             Great report from Der Spiegel (thanks Mikey).  I
                             suggest anyone interested to read the whole
                             thing.  They ask the right questions, and while
                             not as much detail as I hoped, give us a much
                             better understanding on the threat in Germany. 

                             The BKA (germany's FBI) must be extremely busy
                             verifying the details of this virtual walk-in. 
                             It obviously caused the germans to shit their
                             pants.  But the real questions are buried in the
                             article---how real was this plot, how real is
                             the source, is the source just trying to get
                             back to the land of brezeln and bier? Trying to
                             double-cross them somehow?

                             Also note the tip off from the FBI (cue fred),
                             not the usual CIA liaison with BND. 

                             For Eurasia, there's a lot in here on the
                             internal politics of the interior minister
                             position, and the relation between state and
                             federal government. 

                             On 11/22/10 8:55 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

                               -------- Original Message --------

                                Subject: [OS] GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind     
                                         Germany's Terror Threat              
                                   Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 08:38:21 -0600      
                                   From: Graham Smith                         
                                         &lt;graham.smith@stratfor.com&gt;          
                               Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;        
                                     To: os@stratfor.com                      

                                11/22/2010 11:38 AM
                               Fears of a Mumbai Redux
                               The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat

                               http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,730377,00.html
                               By Matthias Bartsch, Yassin Musharbash and
                               Holger Stark

                               Germany is currently in a state of high alert.
                               Security officials are warning that they have
                               concrete information pointing to a possible
                               terror attack on the federal parliament
                               building in Berlin, a massively popular
                               tourist attraction. The days of Interior
                               Minister Thomas de Maiziere's reserved stances
                               in dealing with such warnings appear to be
                               over.

                               The call came from abroad, and the man
                               speaking hurriedly on the other end of the
                               line sounded as if he feared for his life. He
                               wanted out, he told the officers of the German
                               Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) -- out of
                               the terrorist scene. He wanted to come back to
                               Germany, back to his family. Then he asked if
                               German officials could help him.

                               Right now, they're trying to do just that. The
                               BKA is pursuing the case under the codename
                               "Nova." The apparently remorseful man could be
                               an important possible whistleblower from a
                               dangerous region of the globe. In fact, he is
                               also the most recent reason why German
                               Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere put the
                               entire country in a state of fright on
                               Wednesday.

                               During a hastily called press conference that
                               day, de Maiziere stated that Germany faced the
                               threat of terrorist attacks that might be
                               launched against the country at some point in
                               November. As he put it, Germany is "presently
                               dealing with a new situation."
                               Just two days earlier, the source had called
                               for the third time in just a short period and
                               provided more information. He told officials
                               that a small group of terrorists wanted to
                               conduct a raid on the Reichstag building in
                               Berlin, which houses the federal parliament,
                               and that that was only one of the targets
                               included in their attack plans.

                               Germany on High Alert

                               Since then, Germany has been in a state of
                               high alert. The Reichstag is surrounded with
                               barricades and its popular cupola tourist
                               attraction temporarily closed to visitors.
                               Police armed with submachine guns are
                               patrolling major railway stations and
                               airports. And vacations have been called off
                               for officials at the country's security
                               agencies. Wherever they have cause for doing
                               so, the authorities are secretly monitoring
                               communications, conducting surveillance
                               operations and launching undercover
                               investigations. At the moment, investigators
                               seem to be at a loss; their modus operandi:
                               "We'll prod the shrubs and see if we can flush
                               out any birds."

                               "There is cause for worry, but no cause for
                               hysteria," de Maiziere assured his listeners.
                               But while he has never been much of an
                               agitator, his colleagues at the state level
                               have described the situation in much more
                               drastic terms. Uwe Schu:nemann, for example,
                               who has been the interior minister of the
                               northwestern state of Lower Saxony since 2003,
                               stated that he had "never experienced a
                               heightened security situation like this one."
                               And Berlin Senator for the Interior Ehrhart
                               Ko:rting, whose position is tantamount to that
                               of a government minister in the city-state,
                               has already even gone so far as to call on the
                               inhabitants of the German capital city to
                               report suspicious-looking individuals of Arab
                               origin to the police. "If you suddenly see
                               three somewhat strange-looking men who are new
                               to your neighborhood, who hide their faces and
                               who only speak Arabic," Ko:rting said, "you
                               should report them to the authorities."

                               Under heightened pressure, officials in
                               Germany's 16 federal states are now checking
                               to see when and where major events are
                               scheduled to take place this coming week
                               within their boundaries. And nothing suggested
                               as a possible target is being discounted, no
                               matter how unlikely. For example, officials in
                               Rhineland-Palatinate warned the state's
                               interior minister, Karl Peter Burch, that
                               there was always a lot going on at IKEA stores
                               on Saturdays.[WTF]

                               Serenity, Scaremongering and Strategy

                               Since last week, German politicians at both
                               the state and federal levels have once again
                               had to figure out how they will handle
                               themselves when making warnings about
                               terrorist attacks. They have had to come up
                               with a language that can simultaneously convey
                               both an alert and a sense of calm.

                               This is no easy task. For one thing, this
                               isn't the first time this has happened. In
                               September 2009, for example, right before
                               federal elections were held, there were
                               concrete threats that resulted in a heightened
                               security situation. But, in the end, nothing
                               happened. This time around, people are
                               wondering whether they are on the precipice of
                               an emergency or whether these are once again
                               empty threats.

                               Still, one thing is certain: For the time
                               being, Germany has become a different country
                               -- more nervous, more anxious, more agitated.
                               And Germany's domestic security policies are
                               being put to the test.

                               When Interior Minister de Maiziere assumed his
                               office in October 2009 in conservative
                               Chancellor Angela Merkel's government, he
                               aimed to cool down the heated sense of alarm
                               regularly fanned out by his predecessors.
                               What's more, the man who had served as
                               Merkel's chief of staff in Chancellery until
                               being moved to the role of interior minister
                               in her new government, was given the task of
                               nurturing a more relaxed relationship between
                               her party, the Christian Democratic Union
                               (CDU), and its new coalition partner, the
                               business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP).
                               In particular, it was his job to not draw out
                               the long-standing conflict over domestic
                               security policies with the Justice Ministry,
                               which has been led since the 2009 election by
                               Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, a member
                               of the FDP. Indeed, Merkel feared that the
                               quarrelsome FDP might try to capitalize on the
                               issue to win over more voters, so she assigned
                               de Maiziere to prevent that from happening.

                               In fact, the plan was to repeat the same
                               strategy that the CDU and its Bavarian sister
                               party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), had
                               used when they were in the so-called "grand
                               coalition" with the center-left Social
                               Democratic Party, between 2005 and 2009. At
                               the time, they made a point of undermining the
                               SPD by championing what had traditionally been
                               the latter party's issues.

                               A Game-Changer

                               But now the game plan has changed. This
                               November will drastically alter de Maiziere's
                               understanding of his role in office. If he
                               tries to return things to their previous state
                               of calm, he's going to have a very tough time.
                               In fact, it's much more likely that he will be
                               a completely different interior minister.

                               For a while now, de Maiziere's softer stance
                               has prompted opposition by politicians on the
                               right involved with domestic security issues.
                               But they are now calling louder than ever for
                               a tougher course to be followed. Merkel is
                               also adjusting to the new situation and is
                               reportedly happy with the way de Maiziere
                               handled himself last week. Likewise, no one
                               seems to have voiced any criticism last
                               Thursday evening during a meeting of the
                               Coalition Committee, a regular gathering of
                               the parties that are part of the government.

                               The almost complete lack of protest has a lot
                               to do with where the alarming information is
                               coming from. In fact, information regarding
                               the supposedly imminent attacks has come from
                               two independent sources. Shortly before
                               receiving the telephone call about the planned
                               attacks, BKA officials had received a cable
                               from their American counterparts at the FBI,
                               America's federal police force, warning of
                               possible attacks.

                               Still, what truth is there in these
                               "security-related" pieces of information
                               coming from both domestic and foreign sources?
                               And, given all the discrepancies in the
                               warning messages, just how much do they
                               deserve to be trusted? Indeed, even among
                               security officials themselves, there is some
                               doubt about how legitimate these statements
                               are -- and about just how acute the danger
                               threatening Germany really is.

                               An Attack Modelled after Mumbai[plot details
                               in this section]
                               What the caller reported was undeniably
                               alarming. According to him, al-Qaida and
                               associated groups based in Pakistan were
                               making joint preparations for an attack in
                               Germany. One idea was to remotely detonate a
                               bomb using a mobile phone. Another called for
                               a small group of terrorists to storm the
                               Reichstag with guns blazing, take hostages and
                               end everything in one calamitous bloodbath.
                               Indeed, BKA officials learned that the latter
                               plan had been modeled on the storming of
                               luxury hotels in Mumbai, the Indian capital,
                               almost exactly two years ago, in a massacre
                               that left 175 people dead.

                               According to the caller, the plan called for
                               the terrorists to procure the submachine guns,
                               automatic rifles, explosives and whatever else
                               they would need to storm Germany's parliament
                               building in the Balkans. He said that two men
                               had already traveled to Germany six to eight
                               weeks earlier, adding that one had the nom de
                               guerre of "Abu Mohammed" and that the other
                               one was a German of Turkish origin. Both
                               apparently had roots in the Greater Berlin
                               metropolitan area, were currently unemployed
                               and living off of welfare payments and had
                               immersed themselves in the anonymity provided
                               by a major city -- until the time should come
                               for their activation.

                               Likewise, there were allegedly four other
                               volunteers -- including a German, a Turk, a
                               North African and another jihadist of unknown
                               identity -- in the training camps run by
                               al-Qaida and related groups waiting for the
                               signal to travel to Germany. And, according to
                               the telephone source, al-Qaida's plan was to
                               attack in February or March.
                               The only question now relates to just how
                               credible the caller's statements are. He is an
                               insider who joined up with armed groups
                               several months ago and has earned a reputation
                               as a fanatic fighter.
                               But could it be that he is only trying to tell
                               German officials the juiciest things possible
                               in order to raise his own market value and
                               thereby prompt them to extract him from the
                               terror scene? Or could it be that al-Qaida is
                               even planning a second spectacular coup like
                               the one in December 2009, when the Americans
                               allowed a supposedly top-level turncoat onto
                               an American military base without any sort of
                               pat-down, who went on to detonate his
                               explosive vest and blow seven CIA officials to
                               bits?

                               A Strange Message

                               A clear picture has yet to emerge. And one
                               reason for this is also the fact that it was
                               only two weeks ago that the FBI first decided
                               to share information about another possible
                               attack with German officials.

                               In this case, even the way contact was made
                               was unusual. Under normal circumstances,
                               liaisons from the CIA station in Germany are
                               the ones to communicate American warnings to
                               their German counterparts. But, this time
                               around, it was an apparently particularly
                               anxious FBI that chose to directly notify the
                               BKA.
                               The FBI told the Germans about an obscure
                               Indian group called "Saif," or "sword."
                               Despite being a Shiite group, it had allegedly
                               made a pact with al-Qaida, a Sunni
                               organization, and sent five of its men to the
                               Pakistani province of Waziristan for training.
                               According to the FBI, two volunteers -- who
                               were already equipped with visas allowing them
                               to travel freely within the 25 European
                               countries belonging to the Schengen zone --
                               were supposedly already en route to Germany
                               and would enter the United Arab Emirates on
                               Monday, Nov. 22. There, they would allegedly
                               be provided with new travel documents before
                               traveling on to Germany. One of the men is
                               supposedly named "Khan," which is about as
                               common in that part of the world as "Smith" is
                               in English-speaking countries. And no firm
                               conclusion had been made about their
                               nationalities.

                               The FBI agents even named the presumed
                               masterminds behind the operation. A certain
                               Mushtaq Altaf Bin-Khadri, who is in charge of
                               finances and training for "Saif," allegedly
                               dispatched the terrorist squad. But the FBI
                               was not in a position to comment on the
                               targets of the two men in Germany.

                               One name came up time and again in the
                               communique, and one that pricked the Germans'
                               ears: Dawood Ibrahim. The 54-year-old arms
                               trader is "India's most-wanted man." The US
                               government has listed him as a "global
                               terrorist" and persuaded the United Nations to
                               place his name on a list of supporters of
                               terror. Ibrahim is rumored to be the head of
                               D-Company, a criminal syndicate named after
                               himself, and is believed to be in charge of
                               smuggling the suspected terrorists into
                               Germany.

                               Both the FBI and the BKA are attaching a lot
                               of importance to the information in the FBI
                               communique. But the intelligence services of
                               the two countries -- the CIA in the United
                               States and the BND and Office for the
                               Protection of the Constitution in Germany, the
                               country's foreign and domestic intelligence
                               agencies, respectively -- point to internal
                               contradictions as reasons for their
                               skepticism. As they see it, for example, it is
                               highly unlikely that a Shiite group would team
                               up with Sunni terrorists, especially since a
                               good part of al-Qaida propaganda vilifies
                               Shiites. Other reasons for doubt include the
                               facts that none of the intelligence agencies
                               was previously familiar with an organization
                               called "Saif," that there have been no
                               previously recorded threats against Germany by
                               Indian extremists, and that the whole scenario
                               seems rather implausible.

                               On the other hand, the FBI information is
                               uncommonly concrete. In addition to the names
                               of the suspects, it also provides information
                               about the exact day on which they are supposed
                               to arrive in the United Arab Emirates.
                               Moreover, Ibrahim is believed to be one of the
                               men behind the terror attacks in Mumbai. If he
                               really is involved, that alone would be reason
                               enough for worry.

                               Abnormal Circumstances

                               Under normal circumstances, a message of this
                               kind from the United States would no doubt be
                               cause for serious-minded scrutiny, but it
                               would not be a cause for alarm. For example,
                               the BKA would go through all recent visa
                               applications, and federal police officers
                               would take a closer look at all the people
                               entering Germany from Arab states. And the
                               intelligence services would make the rounds to
                               see if any of its partners had any helpful
                               information on the matter.

                               Indeed, under normal circumstances, there are
                               always a lot of these communiques, most of
                               which turn out to be false alarms. But these
                               are no normal circumstances. Germany is in a
                               state of emergency. Other countries, such as
                               the United States, employ a system of official
                               warning levels based on color codes that
                               change -- from yellow to orange, for example
                               -- when the danger level is thought to
                               increase. But, in Germany, the interior
                               minister is the barometer: He consults with
                               experts -- and then it is he who must call the
                               shots.

                               For the minister, a situation like this
                               presents a dilemma. If he remains silent and
                               something happens, he's a failure. If he makes
                               loud warning and nothing happens, he's just a
                               rabble-rouser trying to push through
                               controversial tougher security laws. And, of
                               course, the public never thanks you if
                               everyday life continues in a normal, peaceful
                               way.

                               Absolute Security Remains a Pipe Dream

                               When de Maiziere became Germany's interior
                               minister, he had planned to lead the ministry
                               in a level-headed way. For example, he prefers
                               to use phrases such as "internal calm" rather
                               than "internal security." And it was only six
                               weeks ago that he uttered the sentence:
                               "There's no cause for alarm." But, since then,
                               the chorus of warning voices has only
                               ballooned in size.

                               This change in course is the combined result
                               of everything that happened beforehand. It
                               might very well turn out that the alleged
                               Indian terror squad stays home and that the
                               raid on the Reichstag never happens. But what
                               will remain is a well-founded supposition that
                               there is a critical mass of terrorists in the
                               border region between Afghanistan and Pakistan
                               that is thinking about launching attacks in
                               Europe -- and certainly in Germany, as well.

                               Raw Nerves

                               Given such circumstances, there is a major
                               sense of alarm among German officials. Last
                               Thursday, just a day after de Maiziere's
                               shocking press conference, the BKA issued a
                               press release "in connection with the current
                               high-risk situation." It reported that a piece
                               of suspicious luggage had been discovered a
                               day earlier in Windhoek, the capital of
                               Namibia, before being loaded onto a plane
                               bound for Germany. The laptop bag contained
                               batteries, wires, a detonator and a clock --
                               in other words, all the ingredients you need
                               for a potential airborne catastrophe.

                               It sounded as if another terror plot had been
                               foiled. Had there been a plan to blow up Air
                               Berlin Flight 7377 en route to Munich? And had
                               the authorities, yet again, discovered an
                               explosive device at the last minute? In the
                               end, all the worry was unfounded. As it turned
                               out, the piece of luggage was a test device
                               built by a company that designs "real test"
                               suitcases to be used to test security
                               measures. It remains unclear who checked the
                               bag in. But the fact that the BKA was so quick
                               to go into alarm mode -- and publicly so --
                               has been a communications debacle.

                               Of course, these days, nobody wants to be the
                               one that wasn't sufficiently circumspect, the
                               one who took too long to speak up. No one
                               wants a replay of situations like the one from
                               the beginning of November, when de Maiziere
                               didn't know for hours whether the package that
                               had arrived at the Chancellery contained
                               actual explosives or was just a false alarm.
                               Now, the threshold for sounding the alarm is
                               already much lower.

                               Bonded by Fear

                               Of course, you can never be too sure. Over the
                               last 12 months, a series of attacks concocted
                               in the Afghan-Pakistani border region have
                               been foiled in the West. For example, in May,
                               a car bomb set in New York's Times Square by a
                               man with ties to the Pakistani Taliban failed
                               to properly detonate. In Copenhagen, al-Qaida
                               had made plans to storm the offices of the
                               Jyllands-Posten newspaper as revenge for its
                               2005 publishing of caricatures of the Prophet
                               Muhammad. In October 2009, David Headley, an
                               American citizen with Pakistani roots, was
                               arrested after having already visited the
                               newspaper's offices in order to scout them out
                               before the planned attack. Other targets
                               reportedly included the subway systems of New
                               York City and Washington.

                               On the other hand, absolute security is a pipe
                               dream. For example, British authorities had
                               even conducted rehearsals for how to respond
                               to possible attacks. But, even so, when
                               attacks claiming 56 lives (including those of
                               four attackers) did strike London, on July 7,
                               2005, they were unable to prevent them.
                               Likewise, US intelligence services had warned
                               India a number of times that terrorists were
                               planning attacks in Mumbai.

                               The new situation in Germany has at least had
                               one positive side effect: For the time being,
                               the traditionally quarrelsome interior
                               ministers from both the state and the federal
                               levels have refrained from their usual
                               bickering. Following informal talks held last
                               Thursday in Hamburg, Minister Bruch of
                               Rhineland-Palatinate noted that he had "never
                               experienced such harmony within this group"
                               that has apparently been bonded together by
                               their shared fear.

                               Translated from the German by Josh Ward

                             --

                             Sean Noonan

                             Tactical Analyst

                             Office: +1 512-279-9479

                             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

                             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

                             www.stratfor.com

                           --

                           - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

                           Marko Papic

                           Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

                           STRATFOR

                           700 Lavaca Street - 900

                           Austin, Texas

                           78701 USA

                           P: + 1-512-744-4094

                           marko.papic@stratfor.com

                         --

                         Sean Noonan

                         Tactical Analyst

                         Office: +1 512-279-9479

                         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

                         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

                         www.stratfor.com

                       --

                       - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

                       Marko Papic

                       Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

                       STRATFOR

                       700 Lavaca Street - 900

                       Austin, Texas

                       78701 USA

                       P: + 1-512-744-4094

                       marko.papic@stratfor.com

                     --

                     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

                     Marko Papic

                     Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

                     STRATFOR

                     700 Lavaca Street - 900

                     Austin, Texas

                     78701 USA

                     P: + 1-512-744-4094

                     marko.papic@stratfor.com

                   --

                   Sean Noonan

                   Tactical Analyst

                   Office: +1 512-279-9479

                   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

                   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

                   www.stratfor.com

 --
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX
      

               --

               Sean Noonan

               Tactical Analyst

               Office: +1 512-279-9479

               Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

               Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

               www.stratfor.com

 --
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX
  

 --
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX
      

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-22 20:24:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1974554_re-ct-discussion-germany-ct-the-story-behind-germany-s.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>jaclyn.blumenfeld@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1976380</id>
    <title>[latam] INSIGHT - PARAGUAY - Foreign Relations and non-govt,
 non-military actors
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE: PY 503
   ATTRIBUTION: Paraguayan politics, society
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Consultant for Govt Commissions of IR, previous
   experience Foreign Min
   PUBLICATION: If desired but this is really just background
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: untested
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 6
   SPECIAL HANDLING: none
   DISTRIBUTION: Latam
   SOURCE HANDLER: Allison

   BRAZIL
   - In the past Paraguay used to use its relations with Argentina and Brazil
   as leverage with one against the other.  Now there's a general consensus
   in Paraguay that the relationship with Argentina doesn't matter nearly as
   much as it's relationship with Brazil and that it is pretty firmly set in
   Brazil's sphere of influence.  Brazil is seen as the #1 country of
   importance right now for Paraguay.

   - Trade with Brazil is problem for Paraguay, especially since the latter
   doesn't produce value-added goods.  Many time Paraguay soy and wood will
   be bought in large quantities by Brazil and then exported (as is or with
   value-added) as a Brazilian product. 

   - Paraguay is historical an unstable country and it does makes sense for
   Brazil to have troop exercises along the border. He said that, in a very
   exaggerated scenario, Paraguayans he themselves are the threat for
   sabotaging Itaipu - either unrest getting out of control, some one just
   doing something stupid or an extreme way of trying to get revenge on
   Brazil.  He said  that, though he doesn't see something like this as
   extremely likely, you can't discount it as a random possibility should
   Paraguay become unstable again and for this reason it makes sense (to the
   source) for Brazil to have troops along the Southern Border.  Source said
   that in his conversations with Brazilian officials he was told Brazil's
   military has a contingency plan to secure Itaipu in the event its
   production security is compromised (again this last sentence is secondary
   info).

   ITAIPU
   - A delegation for Paraguay's legislature is expected to visit the
   Brazilian Congress within the next week or 2 to discuss the approval of an
   agreement made in July 2009.  However, the general sentiment in Paraguay
   is that Brazil will not do anything important regarding Itaipu until after
   the October elections.

   - In December Brazil will discuss its budget for next year.  Paraguay sort
   of views this as an informal deadline for approving the July 2009
   agreement that alters prices/fees.  The idea is that the 2010 budget will
   reflect Itaipu profits/purchases.  If the agreement doesn't get pass
   through before the budget is designed, then the expectation is that 2010
   budget won't take any price changes in to consideration.

   - There is very little infrastructure currently in place for Paraguay to
   export Itaipu electricity to customers other than Brazil come 2023.

   VENEZUELA
   - As mentioned, most Paraguayans don't care too much about foreign policy;
   they do however care very much about domestics politics.  The questions
   regarding Paraguay's relationship with Venezuela (a phenomenon) has been
   the source of so much debate because the issues has been internalized by
   Paraguayan political parties thus making it a topic of national debate
   (when ordinarily it'd go unnoticed).  The debate centers around parties'
   opinions abut Chavez (is he good or bad); if Chavez wasn't in office the
   question of Ven's entrance in to Mercosur would draw little if any
   attention/debate.

   - Paraguay feels that, to a large extent, it's in a position in which is
   must choose between the US and Venezuela.  It feels like you can't really
   be friends with both countries at once.  The fear is that, given the need
   for unanimity in many Mercosur decision, the Chavez presence would
   compromise possible future trade agreements with countries like the US.

   - The Senate just started a new session July 1.  The question of Ven's
   Mercosur membership is expected to be put back on the table during this
   session.

   - Within the past 4 or 5 years Colombia has shown an increased interest in
   collaborating, supporting in areas of security with Paraguay.

   CHINA
   - Paraguay is one of the biggest countries that recognizes Taiwan and the
   Pres of Taiwan makes yearly visits to Taiwan.  When Paraguay (government
   or politician) needs funds for a project it many times can just outright
   ask the Taiwanese for the money and it's freely handed over.

   - Paraguay has a huge amount of interest in pursuing its economic/trade
   agenda with China, especially in areas of investment.  Right now there is
   a popular belief that increasing commercial ties with China will not harm
   political ties with Taiwan.

   RUSSIA
   - Russia is a hugely important market for Paraguayan meat exports. 
   Paraguay saw the Russian Frgn Min's visit as a really big deal.

   - Paraguay was looking to improve relations/get a Russian embassy as far
   back as 2004.  Russia was a lot of talk but did little action.  In 2008
   Paraguay started talking to Ukraine about having an embassy in Paraguay. 
   In 2009 Russia opened its embassy in Asuncion; next to no advancements
   have been made with Ukraine.  Many Russian embassy employees in Asuncion
   still struggle with Spanish and the relations between the two were
   described as in their beginning but with mutual interest for development.

   - Paraguay doesn't have the money to buy many armament and often prefers
   to get things as donations rather than pay.  There is mutual interest on
   both parts to introduce arms/security as a major theme of bilateral
   interest but the relationship needs to develop further before such
   discussion can seriously occur and advance.

   OTHER ACTORS
   (this is primarily in response to interest in Paraguay's business
   community.  I had no idea what the important business community consisted
   of in Paraguay but at least now they are identified).

   - The media is a powerful entity in Paraguay in terms of being able to
   influence politics and controlling large amounts of money.  Depending on
   their own interests they will change who they support.  ABC is the main
   newspaper and was inaugurated by Stroessner. Radio Nanditu is the main
   radio company that was back in the day  run by a  crony of Stroessner.
   Telefuturo is the main television company.  I was told these companies
   have different owners but do communicate with one another.

   - Importers are the big business players in Asuncion and the importers'
   union does have political/financial weight.  Since Paraguay has no
   domestic industry it has no need for big tariffs on imported goods.  That
   said many importers  bring in goods not only for domestic consumption but
   also for  export to Brazil as well as for the informal/black market. (that
   is to say, they tend to import way more than Paraguay alone can consume) 
   In Paraguay a private company can set up its own port for trade along the
   rivers.  If you put the dock out there to send/receive shipments, you can
   import goods.  Customs officials will be sent from Asuncion these
   particular locations; it's a system that leaves an open door for
   corruption and smuggling.  Those representing business within Paraguay
   have also been able to amass small fortunes.  For example, former
   President of the Senate and influential politician  Miguel Carrizosa 
   earned most of his wealth by being one of the Voklswagon reps in Paraguay.

   - The Associacion Rural del Paraguay is also a  group that can exercise
   political power within Paraguay.  The members tend to be wealth and pretty
   large land owners.  Right now they are asking the Government to redeploy
   the military to the North to ensure security in the area; they are also 
   becoming more critical of the government for not taking this action.

   - There are only about 5,400 people working in the banking sector in
   Asuncion (according to an Ultima Hora news article yesterday).  Main banks
   in the country are: HSBC, Citibank, BBVA, Banco de la Nacion Argentina,
   Interbanco, Sudameris Bank, Banco do Brasil, Integracion, Amambay,
   Familiar, BNF, Vision Banco, Itapua and Promedio.
</description>
    <date>2010-07-06 18:38:26</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-13 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1976380_-latam-insight-paraguay-foreign-relations-and-non-govt-non.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>michael.wilson@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>latam@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:latam@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1976547</id>
    <title>Re: UK Plot - Do we have the target list?
</title>
    <description>For example, you can input an image of a terrorist and search for the
suspect at other sites, if you suspect surveillance. 

License plate readers are also heavy inside London.   

Fred Burton wrote:
&gt; London Stock Exchange is protected by heavy surveillance coverages
&gt; (TrapWire) and predictive software. 
&gt;
&gt; Sean Noonan wrote:
&gt;   
&gt;&gt; They haven't allowed the details to be released.  All I've seen is the
&gt;&gt; London Stock Exchange and "The Guardian website has said shops, banks
&gt;&gt; and "iconic targets" in London were on a list of sites for bombing. "
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; -shopping centers and gov't buildings
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; On 12/27/10 10:56 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt; http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-12081828
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; They are alleged to have done this by carrying out reconnaissance,
&gt;&gt;&gt; agreeing potential targets, downloading and researching materials and
&gt;&gt;&gt; igniting and testing incendiary material.
&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt; -- 
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Sean Noonan
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Tactical Analyst
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; www.stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;     
</description>
    <date>2010-12-27 18:36:32</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1976547_re-uk-plot-do-we-have-the-target-list-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1976560</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] UK Plot - Do we have the target list?
</title>
    <description>I contacted MI5 while at DPS/ICT to figure out how they are keeping tabs
on the run away Pakis and assorted jabronis, but basically I was
interested in their analysis. 

They are using a robust system of data basing (humint, tech cuts) to
figure out who to surveil based on a threat matrix formula.  

Hybrid model of analysts working w/agents (similar to our PII model
Stick) using intelligence led policing model. 

scott stewart wrote:
&gt; Well a BFB might work since they have reopened much of the area to traffic,
&gt; but that is big league stuff, and if you are sincerely planning such an
&gt; attack you don't look at a host of other targets.
&gt;
&gt;   
&gt;
&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt; From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
&gt; Sent: Monday, December 27, 2010 2:48 PM
&gt; To: scott stewart
&gt; Cc: 'Michael Wilson'; 'CT AOR'; 'Sean Noonan'; 'TACTICAL'
&gt; Subject: Re: [CT] UK Plot - Do we have the target list?
&gt;
&gt; The only wave to attack the US Emb London is via an in bound aircraft or
&gt; shoulder fired rocket in to the bldg. 
&gt;
&gt; The fascinating part to learn (in facts vice news) would be how 5 got
&gt; onto them in the first place. 
&gt;
&gt; scott stewart wrote:
&gt;   
&gt;&gt; This shows us that they were Kramer wannabe terrorists.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;  
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;  
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; *From:* Michael Wilson [mailto:michael.wilson@stratfor.com]
&gt;&gt; *Sent:* Monday, December 27, 2010 2:41 PM
&gt;&gt; *To:* CT AOR
&gt;&gt; *Cc:* Fred Burton; Sean Noonan; 'TACTICAL'
&gt;&gt; *Subject:* Re: [CT] UK Plot - Do we have the target list?
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;  
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; *US embassy in London was a target of UK suspects*
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;     
&gt; http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/us-embassy-in-london-was-a-target-of-uk-s
&gt; uspects/
&gt;   
&gt;&gt; 12.27.10
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; WASHINGTON, Dec 27 (Reuters) - The U.S. embassy in London was a target
&gt;&gt; of a group of men arrested last week in Britain and charged with
&gt;&gt; conspiracy to cause explosions and preparing acts of terrorism, the
&gt;&gt; U.S. State Department said on Monday.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Twelve men were arrested on Dec. 20 in what British police said were
&gt;&gt; counter-terrorism raids essential to protect the public from the
&gt;&gt; threat of attack. [ID:nLDE6BQ08O]
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Three were later released without charges, leaving nine who appeared
&gt;&gt; in court on Monday to face the charges.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Asked if he was aware of reports the suspects indicated that the U.S.
&gt;&gt; embassy in London was on their target list, State Department spokesman
&gt;&gt; Mark Toner told reporters: "I am aware and ... obviously our folks in
&gt;&gt; London are aware of this."
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; In response to a follow-up question during a telephone briefing with
&gt;&gt; reporters, Toner said: "You asked me if we were aware that we were on
&gt;&gt; the targeting list and I confirmed that."
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; The suspects were from London, the Welsh capital of Cardiff and the
&gt;&gt; central English city of Stoke.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; A British police statement said the men had conspired to cause
&gt;&gt; "explosions of a nature likely to endanger life or cause serious
&gt;&gt; injury to property".
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; It added they had been downloading material from the Internet,
&gt;&gt; researching and discussing potential targets, carrying out
&gt;&gt; reconnaissance and "igniting and testing incendiary material".
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; The police statement did not specify what the potential targets were.
&gt;&gt; (Editing by Mohammad Zargham)
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; On 12/27/10 11:36 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; For example, you can input an image of a terrorist and search for the
&gt;&gt; suspect at other sites, if you suspect surveillance. 
&gt;&gt;  
&gt;&gt; License plate readers are also heavy inside London.   
&gt;&gt;  
&gt;&gt; Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;     London Stock Exchange is protected by heavy surveillance coverages
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;     (TrapWire) and predictive software. 
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;     Sean Noonan wrote:
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;         They haven't allowed the details to be released.  All I've seen is
&gt;&gt;     
&gt; the
&gt;   
&gt;&gt;         London Stock Exchange and "The Guardian website has said shops,
&gt;&gt;     
&gt; banks
&gt;   
&gt;&gt;         and "iconic targets" in London were on a list of sites for
&gt;&gt;     
&gt; bombing. "
&gt;   
&gt;&gt;          
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;         -shopping centers and gov't buildings
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;          
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;         On 12/27/10 10:56 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;             
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;             http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-12081828
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;              
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;             They are alleged to have done this by carrying out
&gt;&gt;     
&gt; reconnaissance,
&gt;   
&gt;&gt;             agreeing potential targets, downloading and researching
&gt;&gt;     
&gt; materials and
&gt;   
&gt;&gt;             igniting and testing incendiary material.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;                 
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;                   
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;         -- 
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;          
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;         Sean Noonan
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;          
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;         Tactical Analyst
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;          
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;         Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;          
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;          
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;          
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;         www.stratfor.com &lt;http://www.stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;          
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;             
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; -- 
&gt;&gt; Michael Wilson
&gt;&gt; Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
&gt;&gt; Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
&gt;&gt; Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com &lt;mailto:michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;  
&gt;&gt;     
&gt;
&gt;   
</description>
    <date>2010-12-27 20:57:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1976560_re-ct-uk-plot-do-we-have-the-target-list-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.wilson@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1976918</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror
 Threat
</title>
    <description>   There is a notable difference here.  And that is the German warning issued
   last week.  It was based on their own intelligence not American
   intelligence--so no blaming americans this time.  Yes, it's true that they
   don't have the capability to attack the Reichstag, and theat the attack is
   not imminent, as I pointed out.  But on the other hand, like with cargo
   parcels, it doesn't mean that something is not in the works.  Have we ever
   seen information this specific before on the individuals and their travel
   plans? 

   This is the conundrum of warning intelligence,  when the warning is given
   (just to policymakers, or to the public), measures are taken that prevent
   it.  It then comes the boy-who-cried-wolf, even if the warning was
   originally accurate. 

   Not to mention, given what happened with the last double agent to become
   public (Khost), it will be interesting to follow this one. 
   On 11/22/10 11:33 AM, Ben West wrote:

     I agree that the spiegel article was good - but this is the kind of
     thing we've seen over and over again in Europe. Source from durkastan
     says that aq is going to target Europe and kill lots of people and that
     attackers are en route. Everyone gets freaked out. Nothing significant
     happens. Europe blames US of scare mongering.

     Certainly islamists have europe in their cross-hairs, but if an attack
     is going to happen, it's not going be preceded by this kind of
     publicity.

     Also, attacking the reichstag? I mean, it's possible to ATTACK it, but
     they've got a pretty heavy security presence there that would prevent a
     hostage situation. I was there a few years ago. The public entryway is
     confined to one doorway with a heavy guard presence, metal detectors,
     x-ray machines, etc. If anything, an attack could kill lots of tourists
     lined up outside, but it would take a very serious force to be able to
     gain entrance to the reichstag and an even more well trained force to
     actually hold hostages. This sounds like a pipe-dream to me.

     On 11/22/2010 11:04 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       thoughts?

       On 11/22/10 11:00 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

         It is up to you and CT how you approach this. On the short-term,
         this looks like something you can handle without me. If you want to
         dabble in the more long-term view of what is going on here, I would
         love to help.

         On 11/22/10 10:58 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

           In the more long-term, I think an analysis of the German
           intelligence agencies would be good too. They have been pretty
           decimated by the Cold War and by all the problems associated with
           running an intelligence agency in a post-Gestapo country. If
           Germany is ever going to become a world power again, however, they
           would need to overcome these deamons as well. That is sort of the
           last straw for Germany, the one that is going to be most sensitive
           to overcome. But perhaps this case may illustrate how they are
           already overcoming these issues.

           On 11/22/10 10:50 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

             Main problem is that Der Spiegel is just that good, they've at
             least touched on most of what I would want to say about it.  The
             main thing here is how the politics of a terror threat/alert
             coincide with the reality of the threat itself. 

             We saw that Germany was fairly relaxed bout the earlier threat
             in Europe released by the US.  I'm not sure if that was the same
             as the info that the FBI passed over about this shia group, Saif
             (I don't know anything about them).  But something changed, as
             we noted last week in their interpretation.  That seems to go
             down to this virtual walk-in.  The one thing I was left confused
             about is whether BKA had ever been in contact with this source
             before.  It sounds like he cold called them.  It's common
             knowledge that walk-ins, rather than recruits, are nearly always
             the best sources.  But at the same time, they are very
             suspicious as double agents.  If this was a US source they would
             be freaking the fuck out after having Al-Balawi turn on them. 
             The germans seem to have cooler heads, but they will be working
             24/7 to verify the source (let me make another plug for John
             Lecarre's A Most Wanted Man here, most of his career was in
             Germany). 

             They've clearly got enough corroborating information that they
             consider this a real threat.  But politically they are faced
             with the universal 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' alert
             problem.  If the Interior ministry doesn't say something, they
             will be liable if an attack occurs.  Look at the constant press
             over information on the warning intelligence for Mumbai.  As
             we've said before, simply issuing the warning may help to deter
             the attackers. 

             The real important bit here, is that it seems the germans have
             fairly good intelligence.  While this attack is still not
             happening tomorrow, they have a lot of details about what might
             be in the works, rather than a single-source intercept that
             indicates some vague threat.  It seems they've increased
             security pretty well at the Bundestag, and want to add to the
             presence at any possible target.  This is where we seem them
             scrambling, and where their intelligence holes are. 

             The task now for the germans is to verify this source.  Maybe
             even pick him up and put him on ice somewhere (Fred/Stick?), not
             in GErmany but in Pakistan/Afghanistan.  That will require some
             cooperation with either/both the Americans and Pakistanis.  They
             also need to verify all the bio information they have on these
             4-6 guys trying to get into germany and watch travelers very
             carefully.  The germans seem to be very good at surveilling
             these threats within Germany, so their best luck may come when
             one of the guys overseas contacts a local already under
             surveillance. 

             At minimum, this could be a pretty interesting tearline this
             week.  Both the walk-in issues and the CIA/FBI liaison conflicts
             that I havne't gotten into here. 
             On 11/22/10 10:34 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

               Any thoughts on where you guys are thinking of going with
               this?

               Der Spiegel article is indeed interesting.

               On 11/22/10 9:28 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                 Great report from Der Spiegel (thanks Mikey).  I suggest
                 anyone interested to read the whole thing.  They ask the
                 right questions, and while not as much detail as I hoped,
                 give us a much better understanding on the threat in
                 Germany. 

                 The BKA (germany's FBI) must be extremely busy verifying the
                 details of this virtual walk-in.  It obviously caused the
                 germans to shit their pants.  But the real questions are
                 buried in the article---how real was this plot, how real is
                 the source, is the source just trying to get back to the
                 land of brezeln and bier? Trying to double-cross them
                 somehow?

                 Also note the tip off from the FBI (cue fred), not the usual
                 CIA liaison with BND. 

                 For Eurasia, there's a lot in here on the internal politics
                 of the interior minister position, and the relation between
                 state and federal government. 

                 On 11/22/10 8:55 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

                   -------- Original Message --------

                    Subject: [OS] GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's       
                             Terror Threat                                    
                       Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 08:38:21 -0600                  
                       From: Graham Smith &lt;graham.smith@stratfor.com&gt;         
                   Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                    
                         To: os@stratfor.com                                  

                    11/22/2010 11:38 AM
                   Fears of a Mumbai Redux
                   The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat

                   http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,730377,00.html
                   By Matthias Bartsch, Yassin Musharbash and Holger Stark

                   Germany is currently in a state of high alert. Security
                   officials are warning that they have concrete information
                   pointing to a possible terror attack on the federal
                   parliament building in Berlin, a massively popular tourist
                   attraction. The days of Interior Minister Thomas de
                   Maiziere's reserved stances in dealing with such warnings
                   appear to be over.

                   The call came from abroad, and the man speaking hurriedly
                   on the other end of the line sounded as if he feared for
                   his life. He wanted out, he told the officers of the
                   German Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) -- out of the
                   terrorist scene. He wanted to come back to Germany, back
                   to his family. Then he asked if German officials could
                   help him.

                   Right now, they're trying to do just that. The BKA is
                   pursuing the case under the codename "Nova." The
                   apparently remorseful man could be an important possible
                   whistleblower from a dangerous region of the globe. In
                   fact, he is also the most recent reason why German
                   Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere put the entire
                   country in a state of fright on Wednesday.

                   During a hastily called press conference that day, de
                   Maiziere stated that Germany faced the threat of terrorist
                   attacks that might be launched against the country at some
                   point in November. As he put it, Germany is "presently
                   dealing with a new situation."
                   Just two days earlier, the source had called for the third
                   time in just a short period and provided more information.
                   He told officials that a small group of terrorists wanted
                   to conduct a raid on the Reichstag building in Berlin,
                   which houses the federal parliament, and that that was
                   only one of the targets included in their attack plans.

                   Germany on High Alert

                   Since then, Germany has been in a state of high alert. The
                   Reichstag is surrounded with barricades and its popular
                   cupola tourist attraction temporarily closed to visitors.
                   Police armed with submachine guns are patrolling major
                   railway stations and airports. And vacations have been
                   called off for officials at the country's security
                   agencies. Wherever they have cause for doing so, the
                   authorities are secretly monitoring communications,
                   conducting surveillance operations and launching
                   undercover investigations. At the moment, investigators
                   seem to be at a loss; their modus operandi: "We'll prod
                   the shrubs and see if we can flush out any birds."

                   "There is cause for worry, but no cause for hysteria," de
                   Maiziere assured his listeners. But while he has never
                   been much of an agitator, his colleagues at the state
                   level have described the situation in much more drastic
                   terms. Uwe Schu:nemann, for example, who has been the
                   interior minister of the northwestern state of Lower
                   Saxony since 2003, stated that he had "never experienced a
                   heightened security situation like this one." And Berlin
                   Senator for the Interior Ehrhart Ko:rting, whose position
                   is tantamount to that of a government minister in the
                   city-state, has already even gone so far as to call on the
                   inhabitants of the German capital city to report
                   suspicious-looking individuals of Arab origin to the
                   police. "If you suddenly see three somewhat
                   strange-looking men who are new to your neighborhood, who
                   hide their faces and who only speak Arabic," Ko:rting
                   said, "you should report them to the authorities."

                   Under heightened pressure, officials in Germany's 16
                   federal states are now checking to see when and where
                   major events are scheduled to take place this coming week
                   within their boundaries. And nothing suggested as a
                   possible target is being discounted, no matter how
                   unlikely. For example, officials in Rhineland-Palatinate
                   warned the state's interior minister, Karl Peter Burch,
                   that there was always a lot going on at IKEA stores on
                   Saturdays.[WTF]

                   Serenity, Scaremongering and Strategy

                   Since last week, German politicians at both the state and
                   federal levels have once again had to figure out how they
                   will handle themselves when making warnings about
                   terrorist attacks. They have had to come up with a
                   language that can simultaneously convey both an alert and
                   a sense of calm.

                   This is no easy task. For one thing, this isn't the first
                   time this has happened. In September 2009, for example,
                   right before federal elections were held, there were
                   concrete threats that resulted in a heightened security
                   situation. But, in the end, nothing happened. This time
                   around, people are wondering whether they are on the
                   precipice of an emergency or whether these are once again
                   empty threats.

                   Still, one thing is certain: For the time being, Germany
                   has become a different country -- more nervous, more
                   anxious, more agitated. And Germany's domestic security
                   policies are being put to the test.

                   When Interior Minister de Maiziere assumed his office in
                   October 2009 in conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel's
                   government, he aimed to cool down the heated sense of
                   alarm regularly fanned out by his predecessors. What's
                   more, the man who had served as Merkel's chief of staff in
                   Chancellery until being moved to the role of interior
                   minister in her new government, was given the task of
                   nurturing a more relaxed relationship between her party,
                   the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and its new
                   coalition partner, the business-friendly Free Democratic
                   Party (FDP). In particular, it was his job to not draw out
                   the long-standing conflict over domestic security policies
                   with the Justice Ministry, which has been led since the
                   2009 election by Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, a
                   member of the FDP. Indeed, Merkel feared that the
                   quarrelsome FDP might try to capitalize on the issue to
                   win over more voters, so she assigned de Maiziere to
                   prevent that from happening.

                   In fact, the plan was to repeat the same strategy that the
                   CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social
                   Union (CSU), had used when they were in the so-called
                   "grand coalition" with the center-left Social Democratic
                   Party, between 2005 and 2009. At the time, they made a
                   point of undermining the SPD by championing what had
                   traditionally been the latter party's issues.

                   A Game-Changer

                   But now the game plan has changed. This November will
                   drastically alter de Maiziere's understanding of his role
                   in office. If he tries to return things to their previous
                   state of calm, he's going to have a very tough time. In
                   fact, it's much more likely that he will be a completely
                   different interior minister.

                   For a while now, de Maiziere's softer stance has prompted
                   opposition by politicians on the right involved with
                   domestic security issues. But they are now calling louder
                   than ever for a tougher course to be followed. Merkel is
                   also adjusting to the new situation and is reportedly
                   happy with the way de Maiziere handled himself last week.
                   Likewise, no one seems to have voiced any criticism last
                   Thursday evening during a meeting of the Coalition
                   Committee, a regular gathering of the parties that are
                   part of the government.

                   The almost complete lack of protest has a lot to do with
                   where the alarming information is coming from. In fact,
                   information regarding the supposedly imminent attacks has
                   come from two independent sources. Shortly before
                   receiving the telephone call about the planned attacks,
                   BKA officials had received a cable from their American
                   counterparts at the FBI, America's federal police force,
                   warning of possible attacks.

                   Still, what truth is there in these "security-related"
                   pieces of information coming from both domestic and
                   foreign sources? And, given all the discrepancies in the
                   warning messages, just how much do they deserve to be
                   trusted? Indeed, even among security officials themselves,
                   there is some doubt about how legitimate these statements
                   are -- and about just how acute the danger threatening
                   Germany really is.

                   An Attack Modelled after Mumbai[plot details in this
                   section]
                   What the caller reported was undeniably alarming.
                   According to him, al-Qaida and associated groups based in
                   Pakistan were making joint preparations for an attack in
                   Germany. One idea was to remotely detonate a bomb using a
                   mobile phone. Another called for a small group of
                   terrorists to storm the Reichstag with guns blazing, take
                   hostages and end everything in one calamitous bloodbath.
                   Indeed, BKA officials learned that the latter plan had
                   been modeled on the storming of luxury hotels in Mumbai,
                   the Indian capital, almost exactly two years ago, in a
                   massacre that left 175 people dead.

                   According to the caller, the plan called for the
                   terrorists to procure the submachine guns, automatic
                   rifles, explosives and whatever else they would need to
                   storm Germany's parliament building in the Balkans. He
                   said that two men had already traveled to Germany six to
                   eight weeks earlier, adding that one had the nom de guerre
                   of "Abu Mohammed" and that the other one was a German of
                   Turkish origin. Both apparently had roots in the Greater
                   Berlin metropolitan area, were currently unemployed and
                   living off of welfare payments and had immersed themselves
                   in the anonymity provided by a major city -- until the
                   time should come for their activation.

                   Likewise, there were allegedly four other volunteers --
                   including a German, a Turk, a North African and another
                   jihadist of unknown identity -- in the training camps run
                   by al-Qaida and related groups waiting for the signal to
                   travel to Germany. And, according to the telephone source,
                   al-Qaida's plan was to attack in February or March.
                   The only question now relates to just how credible the
                   caller's statements are. He is an insider who joined up
                   with armed groups several months ago and has earned a
                   reputation as a fanatic fighter.
                   But could it be that he is only trying to tell German
                   officials the juiciest things possible in order to raise
                   his own market value and thereby prompt them to extract
                   him from the terror scene? Or could it be that al-Qaida is
                   even planning a second spectacular coup like the one in
                   December 2009, when the Americans allowed a supposedly
                   top-level turncoat onto an American military base without
                   any sort of pat-down, who went on to detonate his
                   explosive vest and blow seven CIA officials to bits?

                   A Strange Message

                   A clear picture has yet to emerge. And one reason for this
                   is also the fact that it was only two weeks ago that the
                   FBI first decided to share information about another
                   possible attack with German officials.

                   In this case, even the way contact was made was unusual.
                   Under normal circumstances, liaisons from the CIA station
                   in Germany are the ones to communicate American warnings
                   to their German counterparts. But, this time around, it
                   was an apparently particularly anxious FBI that chose to
                   directly notify the BKA.
                   The FBI told the Germans about an obscure Indian group
                   called "Saif," or "sword." Despite being a Shiite group,
                   it had allegedly made a pact with al-Qaida, a Sunni
                   organization, and sent five of its men to the Pakistani
                   province of Waziristan for training. According to the FBI,
                   two volunteers -- who were already equipped with visas
                   allowing them to travel freely within the 25 European
                   countries belonging to the Schengen zone -- were
                   supposedly already en route to Germany and would enter the
                   United Arab Emirates on Monday, Nov. 22. There, they would
                   allegedly be provided with new travel documents before
                   traveling on to Germany. One of the men is supposedly
                   named "Khan," which is about as common in that part of the
                   world as "Smith" is in English-speaking countries. And no
                   firm conclusion had been made about their nationalities.

                   The FBI agents even named the presumed masterminds behind
                   the operation. A certain Mushtaq Altaf Bin-Khadri, who is
                   in charge of finances and training for "Saif," allegedly
                   dispatched the terrorist squad. But the FBI was not in a
                   position to comment on the targets of the two men in
                   Germany.

                   One name came up time and again in the communique, and one
                   that pricked the Germans' ears: Dawood Ibrahim. The
                   54-year-old arms trader is "India's most-wanted man." The
                   US government has listed him as a "global terrorist" and
                   persuaded the United Nations to place his name on a list
                   of supporters of terror. Ibrahim is rumored to be the head
                   of D-Company, a criminal syndicate named after himself,
                   and is believed to be in charge of smuggling the suspected
                   terrorists into Germany.

                   Both the FBI and the BKA are attaching a lot of importance
                   to the information in the FBI communique. But the
                   intelligence services of the two countries -- the CIA in
                   the United States and the BND and Office for the
                   Protection of the Constitution in Germany, the country's
                   foreign and domestic intelligence agencies, respectively
                   -- point to internal contradictions as reasons for their
                   skepticism. As they see it, for example, it is highly
                   unlikely that a Shiite group would team up with Sunni
                   terrorists, especially since a good part of al-Qaida
                   propaganda vilifies Shiites. Other reasons for doubt
                   include the facts that none of the intelligence agencies
                   was previously familiar with an organization called
                   "Saif," that there have been no previously recorded
                   threats against Germany by Indian extremists, and that the
                   whole scenario seems rather implausible.

                   On the other hand, the FBI information is uncommonly
                   concrete. In addition to the names of the suspects, it
                   also provides information about the exact day on which
                   they are supposed to arrive in the United Arab Emirates.
                   Moreover, Ibrahim is believed to be one of the men behind
                   the terror attacks in Mumbai. If he really is involved,
                   that alone would be reason enough for worry.

                   Abnormal Circumstances

                   Under normal circumstances, a message of this kind from
                   the United States would no doubt be cause for
                   serious-minded scrutiny, but it would not be a cause for
                   alarm. For example, the BKA would go through all recent
                   visa applications, and federal police officers would take
                   a closer look at all the people entering Germany from Arab
                   states. And the intelligence services would make the
                   rounds to see if any of its partners had any helpful
                   information on the matter.

                   Indeed, under normal circumstances, there are always a lot
                   of these communiques, most of which turn out to be false
                   alarms. But these are no normal circumstances. Germany is
                   in a state of emergency. Other countries, such as the
                   United States, employ a system of official warning levels
                   based on color codes that change -- from yellow to orange,
                   for example -- when the danger level is thought to
                   increase. But, in Germany, the interior minister is the
                   barometer: He consults with experts -- and then it is he
                   who must call the shots.

                   For the minister, a situation like this presents a
                   dilemma. If he remains silent and something happens, he's
                   a failure. If he makes loud warning and nothing happens,
                   he's just a rabble-rouser trying to push through
                   controversial tougher security laws. And, of course, the
                   public never thanks you if everyday life continues in a
                   normal, peaceful way.

                   Absolute Security Remains a Pipe Dream

                   When de Maiziere became Germany's interior minister, he
                   had planned to lead the ministry in a level-headed way.
                   For example, he prefers to use phrases such as "internal
                   calm" rather than "internal security." And it was only six
                   weeks ago that he uttered the sentence: "There's no cause
                   for alarm." But, since then, the chorus of warning voices
                   has only ballooned in size.

                   This change in course is the combined result of everything
                   that happened beforehand. It might very well turn out that
                   the alleged Indian terror squad stays home and that the
                   raid on the Reichstag never happens. But what will remain
                   is a well-founded supposition that there is a critical
                   mass of terrorists in the border region between
                   Afghanistan and Pakistan that is thinking about launching
                   attacks in Europe -- and certainly in Germany, as well.

                   Raw Nerves

                   Given such circumstances, there is a major sense of alarm
                   among German officials. Last Thursday, just a day after de
                   Maiziere's shocking press conference, the BKA issued a
                   press release "in connection with the current high-risk
                   situation." It reported that a piece of suspicious luggage
                   had been discovered a day earlier in Windhoek, the capital
                   of Namibia, before being loaded onto a plane bound for
                   Germany. The laptop bag contained batteries, wires, a
                   detonator and a clock -- in other words, all the
                   ingredients you need for a potential airborne catastrophe.

                   It sounded as if another terror plot had been foiled. Had
                   there been a plan to blow up Air Berlin Flight 7377 en
                   route to Munich? And had the authorities, yet again,
                   discovered an explosive device at the last minute? In the
                   end, all the worry was unfounded. As it turned out, the
                   piece of luggage was a test device built by a company that
                   designs "real test" suitcases to be used to test security
                   measures. It remains unclear who checked the bag in. But
                   the fact that the BKA was so quick to go into alarm mode
                   -- and publicly so -- has been a communications debacle.

                   Of course, these days, nobody wants to be the one that
                   wasn't sufficiently circumspect, the one who took too long
                   to speak up. No one wants a replay of situations like the
                   one from the beginning of November, when de Maiziere
                   didn't know for hours whether the package that had arrived
                   at the Chancellery contained actual explosives or was just
                   a false alarm. Now, the threshold for sounding the alarm
                   is already much lower.

                   Bonded by Fear

                   Of course, you can never be too sure. Over the last 12
                   months, a series of attacks concocted in the
                   Afghan-Pakistani border region have been foiled in the
                   West. For example, in May, a car bomb set in New York's
                   Times Square by a man with ties to the Pakistani Taliban
                   failed to properly detonate. In Copenhagen, al-Qaida had
                   made plans to storm the offices of the Jyllands-Posten
                   newspaper as revenge for its 2005 publishing of
                   caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad. In October 2009,
                   David Headley, an American citizen with Pakistani roots,
                   was arrested after having already visited the newspaper's
                   offices in order to scout them out before the planned
                   attack. Other targets reportedly included the subway
                   systems of New York City and Washington.

                   On the other hand, absolute security is a pipe dream. For
                   example, British authorities had even conducted rehearsals
                   for how to respond to possible attacks. But, even so, when
                   attacks claiming 56 lives (including those of four
                   attackers) did strike London, on July 7, 2005, they were
                   unable to prevent them. Likewise, US intelligence services
                   had warned India a number of times that terrorists were
                   planning attacks in Mumbai.

                   The new situation in Germany has at least had one positive
                   side effect: For the time being, the traditionally
                   quarrelsome interior ministers from both the state and the
                   federal levels have refrained from their usual bickering.
                   Following informal talks held last Thursday in Hamburg,
                   Minister Bruch of Rhineland-Palatinate noted that he had
                   "never experienced such harmony within this group" that
                   has apparently been bonded together by their shared fear.

                   Translated from the German by Josh Ward

                 --

                 Sean Noonan

                 Tactical Analyst

                 Office: +1 512-279-9479

                 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

                 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

                 www.stratfor.com

               --

               - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

               Marko Papic

               Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

               STRATFOR

               700 Lavaca Street - 900

               Austin, Texas

               78701 USA

               P: + 1-512-744-4094

               marko.papic@stratfor.com

             --

             Sean Noonan

             Tactical Analyst

             Office: +1 512-279-9479

             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

             www.stratfor.com

           --

           - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

           Marko Papic

           Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

           STRATFOR

           700 Lavaca Street - 900

           Austin, Texas

           78701 USA

           P: + 1-512-744-4094

           marko.papic@stratfor.com

         --

         - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

         Marko Papic

         Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

         STRATFOR

         700 Lavaca Street - 900

         Austin, Texas

         78701 USA

         P: + 1-512-744-4094

         marko.papic@stratfor.com

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

 --
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-22 18:43:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1976918_re-ct-discussion-germany-ct-the-story-behind-germany-s.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1977338</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Musings on The Outfit
</title>
    <description>   I know. Kid needs backup

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Wed, 6 Jul 2011 10:36:18 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Musings on The Outfit
   I think that was his point.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "George Friedman" &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, July 6, 2011 10:35:24 AM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Musings on The Outfit

   Actually byu grads do try that. And die.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Wed, 6 Jul 2011 10:30:37 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Musings on The Outfit
   I disagree... It's not a small percentage of field-jobs and it is not
   always about the right skills in the right places. This goes beyond gender
   discrimination. It has to also deal with cultural understandings,
   experience, etc. Let's forget that the thread is about women. It would be
   like putting a BYU grad with 6 weeks of Serbo-Croatian training to
   negotiate with Red Berets in 1999. Good luck with that.

   I think one could use this thread as an S-weekly topic.

   On 7/6/11 10:24 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     Like I said, its a question of how resources are put to use. Some skills
     come naturally, some skills come with training (and that enhances the
     former category) and a few others are based on gender, such as
     conversing with a male islamist. But look how specific that last example
     is- whether its interrogation or recruiting, that's a very small
     percentage of jobs.

     Put the people with the right skills in the right places.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Karen Hooper &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Wed, 6 Jul 2011 10:11:56 -0500 (CDT)
     To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [alpha] Musings on The Outfit
     Gender discrimination is appropriate in many circumstances. My only
     objection is to the assumption that women cannot be trained to react
     appropriately in a given situation. Clearly Khost was a fuck up. It was
     not a fuck up because she was a woman, but because she mishandled the
     situation. It sounds like her boss compounded the problem by failing to
     oversee the operation. Given that he was a white male and not a muslim
     detainee, I don't think we can excuse him from having done his job as a
     supervisor because she was a woman.

     There many be institutional pressures for him to fail at his job and for
     her to be poorly trained, but that's clearly an institutional problem.
     Your daughter had the grace and intelligence to put men in jobs where
     men should be. That should be the standard, and it should be clearly
     articulated. I don't think we're disagreeing on that.

     On 7/6/11 10:03 AM, George Friedman wrote:

       Gender does matter.  Sending a woman to interrogate a Muslim creates
       vast problems for example.  These are different cultures, different
       views of gender and human lives are at stake.  Using women in
       societies that hold them in contempt might be satisfying to American
       ideals and principles, but they can get people killed.  My daughter
       was ran an interrogation center in Iraq where the result of failure
       was death to many Americans. She couldn't be effective in that
       environment and had the grace to know it, so she did not do her job
       but handed off to men.  Iraqi men who would talk to American men would
       possibly be willing to die rather than talk to women.

       We talk about multi-culturalism and we talk about gender and the fact
       is that there are cultures in which women cannot be effect in doing
       intelligence. Placing women in jobs where the culture will make them
       fail is irresponsible and women demanding those jobs because of
       ideology is criminal.  It's a big world out there and the way others
       live isn't the way we live. Intelligence is not about reforming the
       world but getting information. There are places I wouldn't send a man
       and places I wouldn't send a woman.  Pretending that gender isn't a
       determining factor gets people killed.  I sometimes think that some of
       the gender fanatics are less concerned with that than with pretending
       that men and women can get all jobs done equally well.  They just
       can't. 

       My problem with the number of women in field positions is that they
       are going to fail because they are in that culture and they are women
       and people will die as a result.

       The policy of using women in posts where they will do more harm than
       good in order to push American ideology regardless of consequences is
       what the Agency is doing and it is one of the reasons, among others,
       that we experience intelligence failures.

       On 07/06/11 09:52 , Karen Hooper wrote:

         100 percent on board with that, and those are all things we've
         discussed quite a bit.

         I just want to make sure we're talking about crappy management and
         training, not gender.

         On 7/6/11 9:10 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

           She also arranged "in the field" for the 16 (yes 16) greeters to
           meet the GID asset and aQ double-agent  like it was a Stratfor
           happy hour.

           Sources are never met that way.  Its a 1x1 business. 

           Don't get me wrong, I'm grateful for her being there in the first
           place, but boneheaded mistakes by dumb assed bosses get people
           killed. 

           On 7/6/2011 9:03 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

             Career analyst w/out field ops experience. 

             The internal Agency report took the management team to the
             woodshed for sending her there without ops training. 

             On 7/6/2011 8:59 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

               .... because she was a woman?

               On 7/6/11 8:39 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

                 The base chief woman (analyst) who died in Khost had been a
                 reports officer in London, prior to Khost.  Simply not
                 qualified for the field job. 

                 On 7/6/2011 8:26 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                   women are also arguably better at recruiting assets.  Then
                   number is not at all a bad thing, it's more a question of
                   how resources are put to use. 
                   On 7/6/11 7:44 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

 Baer advised the CIA is now 50% women.   The "gender political
 correctness" is causing the outfit to ship women to places they
 shouldn't be operating in the field (such as Khost.)   The bulk of the
 Agency have been hired post 9-11 with FNG's also in places they
 shouldn't be.  As a result, the Agency is re-hiring annuitants
 (retirees) for base chief jobs.  The influx of the women has created a
 can of worms with many wanting to be Station Chief's in places they also
 should not be.  The old white males can't say anything about assignments
 for fear of blow-back and lawsuits.

                   --

                   Sean Noonan

                   Tactical Analyst

                   Office: +1 512-279-9479

                   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

                   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

                   www.stratfor.com

       --

       George Friedman

       Founder and CEO

       STRATFOR

       221 West 6th Street

       Suite 400

       Austin, Texas 78701

        

       Phone: 512-744-4319

       Fax: 512-744-4334

        

 --
 Marko Papic
 Senior Analyst
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 + 1-512-905-3091 (C)
 221 W. 6th St., 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
 www.stratfor.com
 @marko_papic
</description>
    <date>2011-07-06 17:46:21</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1977338_re-alpha-musings-on-the-outfit-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1979361</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] [Fwd: [OS] RUSSIA/CT - footage of the Russian airport
	blast]
</title>
    <description>Surv footage can be walked back and track the suspects from the get go
w/facial recognition software (or TrapWire) technology. 

Eugene Chausovsky wrote:
&gt; Not sure if you guys saw this, this is real time footage of blast
&gt; caught by airport security camera.
&gt;
&gt; -------- Original Message --------
&gt; Subject: 	[OS] RUSSIA/CT - footage of the Russian airport blast
&gt; Date: 	Tue, 25 Jan 2011 08:10:16 -0600
&gt; From: 	Adam Wagh &lt;adam.wagh@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; Reply-To: 	The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; To: 	The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; *Footage of the Russian airport blast
&gt; *http://video.foxnews.com/v/4508883/
&gt; January 25, 2011
&gt;
&gt; Check the link above for the vidio
&gt; -- 
&gt; Adam Wagh
&gt; STRATFOR Research Intern
</description>
    <date>2011-01-25 17:30:37</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1979361_re-ct-fwd-os-russia-ct-footage-of-the-russian-airport-blast-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1981373</id>
    <title>RE: Terrorist Surveillance Footage
</title>
    <description>
One final rant --

Think of the white Italian NYPD cop who stops the Muslim while taking
"tourist pictures" then gets sued by the ACLU hippie lawyer wearing the Hope
&amp; Change button and Vote for Che' sticker on his Apple.  

Much easier to let Achmed blow up the bldg.   

-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
Sent: Tuesday, February 15, 2011 3:24 PM
To: 'Fred Burton'; 'Tactical'; 'CT AOR'
Cc: 'Michael D. Mooney'; 'Frank Ginac'
Subject: RE: Terrorist Surveillance Footage


Perfect example of dumb asses (the security folks) and most citizens.    

How many would look at the operatives conduct (and profile) and think
terrorist surveillances?   

-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
Sent: Tuesday, February 15, 2011 3:02 PM
To: 'Tactical'; 'CT AOR'
Cc: 'Michael D. Mooney'; 'Frank Ginac'
Subject: Terrorist Surveillance Footage

Kudos to Mike Mooney for helping us get the footage.  

Attached is surveillance footage from TrapWire with the background relative
to the clip.  I would encourage you to watch for real terrorist surveillance
video.  

----------------------------------------------------

Fred: Once you have the clip, note the following:

 

.           Barot filmed in NY, NY, DC and London on at least 6-10 occasions
both before and after 9/11. (He was fully aware that our response to 9/11
was to simply erect Jersey Barriers and put more guns on the street looking
for the next attack -- not the surveillance. Thus his complete confidence
that even after 9/11 no one was looking for pre-attack surveillance).

.           The verbiage scrolling across the bottom of the screen is his.

.           You'll see him film CCTV cameras everywhere. His surveillance
notes back to AQ were as good as anything I ever produced for an op with the
Agency. (His plan for the attack on the Prudential building was genius).

.           Notice the focus of his filming: CCTV cameras; police cruisers;
first-responder vehicles; maps of Manhattan; NYSE entrance; nitrogen tanks
above the subway grates; and various Jewish centers.

.           Best part of the film: at the 1:18 mark he passes two security
guards near Wall Street. He's just finished filming a CCTV camera.starts
filming the guards, and one of them says "hey, how you doin'"  Brilliant.
(Not sure if this version has the audio on though).

.           At the end of the clip, you'll see him tilt the WTC sideways and
make the sound of an explosion. He knew already.

 

If a system like TrapWire been deployed at the various sites (including NJ
and DC), we would have caught this guy in the act. As it was, we alerted on
him after raiding a safehouse in Pakistan looking for another guy -- and
found Barot's notes on a hard-drive in that apartment. Pure luck.

 

Mike


The file is now uploaded and can be grabbed at:

https://files.me.com/mooney6023/xsv00c


--Mike



No virus found in this incoming message.
Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
Version: 9.0.872 / Virus Database: 271.1.1/3445 - Release Date: 02/15/11
01:34:00


No virus found in this incoming message.
Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
Version: 9.0.872 / Virus Database: 271.1.1/3445 - Release Date: 02/15/11
01:34:00
</description>
    <date>2011-02-15 22:42:10</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1981373_re-terrorist-surveillance-footage-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mooney@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>frank.ginac@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1982174</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-11 13:59:34</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1982174_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1982521</id>
    <title>[alpha] Fw: Oslo
</title>
    <description>   Trapwire

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:00:28 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Oslo

   My money's on a Libyan connection.

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 18:04:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1982521_-alpha-fw-oslo-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1982624</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Libyans also pay foreign mercenaries.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:12:04 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   Was the shooter a Libyan?

   On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:13:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1982624_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1982627</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Once we do know, then we will know who was behind it.

   Until then, this is all conjecture and opinion.  And you know what
   opinions are like.

   On 7/22/11 9:13 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     We don't know

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:12:04 -0500 (CDT)
     To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
     Was the shooter a Libyan?

     On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:15:11</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1982627_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1982635</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Qaddaffi out-sources jobs, going back to Carlos the Jackal.

   Ck the OS about 3-4 weeks ago, about Qaddaffi hiring mercs.

   The suspect could be ex-French Foreign Legion.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:30:48 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   Maybe, or he could be the Norwegian McVeigh.

   On 7/22/11 9:26 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     Mercenary
     Contract hit

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Hoor Jangda &lt;hoor.jangda@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:25:36 -0500 (CDT)
     To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
     the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
     height.

     On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

       Was the shooter a Libyan?

       On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:34:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1982635_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1983238</id>
    <title>RE: Terrorist Surveillance Footage  (Prudential Bldg attack plans) 
</title>
    <description>From TrapWire --  


He spent months studying the Pru bldg from a Starbucks and bookstore across
the street. 

He also took more than 100 photos inside and out..of every CCTV, bollard,
metal detector, etc. Even put together dossiers on individual security
guards -- noting those that always asked for id's and those that didn't. (He
attached photos of the guards to his surv report).

 

He noticed that every vehicle entering Pru was stopped and searched --
except stretch limos. His plan was to acquire a limo, strip out the seats
and fill with explosives (including the "radioactive" marked gas/oxygen
tanks). Using photos he took of the employee's badges (he acquired those by
chatting them up in the smoking areas), he was going to fashion replicas
(down to the same lanyards they used); drive the limo into the underground
garage, and then, flashing the fake employee badges, catch the Pru shuttle
to Newark and egress. Clever fellow.
</description>
    <date>2011-02-15 22:59:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1983238_re-terrorist-surveillance-footage-prudential-bldg-attack.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mooney@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>frank.ginac@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1984023</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
 CODE
</title>
    <description>   Read these pieces to understand the dynamic of the radical
   environmentalists becoming more isolated and therefore progressively more
   prone to violence as they pull away from the moderating influence of their
   less violent colleagues. 
   The second piece talks about funding, but remember that these jabronis do
   not need much funding to blow things up or burn them down or k ill people.
    
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/informants_bombs_and_lessons
   http://www.stratfor.com/direct_action_attacks_terrorism_another_name
   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/u_s_incendiary_activism_santa_cruz
   From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 17 Nov 2011 07:36:00 -0600
   To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Are they capable of killing or violence (question from the Rangers?) 

   On 11/17/2011 7:01 AM, scott stewart wrote:

     It might sound strange, but some of the most radical deep ecology people
     actually believe that there are too many people on the earth and that
     radical steps must be taken to reduce the population and save the earth.
      This strain of deep ecology is a clear reflection of the way the
     movement was heavily influenced by people like Martin Heidegger who were
     also committed to Nazism. Yes, Nazis were radical environmentalists.....
     From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
     Organization: STRATFOR
     Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 23:08:31 -0600
     To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green
     Resistance-NO CODE
     Jesus I spent a couple of hours researching these guys - weird is an
     understatement. Apparently they met yesterday a couple of blocks away
     from my house to consolidate their leadership, go through basic
     indoctrination and plan more events. As far as I can tell, the Austin
     chapter is not nearly as radical as the central Lierre Keith DGR whose
     website is a treasure trove of incitment to passive resistance, blowing
     up energy infra, basic counter intel and legal guidance.

     Their ideology seems to be a mix of hardcore environmentalism,
     anarchism, radical feminism and the general notion that we need to go
     back living sustainably like the american indians by blowing up every
     pipeline and cell tower on the planet. Unlike the central DGR, Austin
     DGR doesn't seem to have defined targets and goals (their meeting
     yesterday was a brainstorming session on what radical environmentalism
     means in Austin).

     just a few nice quotes from their central website:

     The task of an activist is not to navigate systems of oppressive power
     with as much personal integrity as possible; it is to dismantle those
     systems.

     What would we do if Nazis had invaded, and they were vacuuming the
     oceans, scalping native forests, damming every river, changing the
     climate, and putting carcinogens into every mother's breast milk, and
     into the flesh of your children, your lover, your mother, into your own
     flesh? How much worse would the damage have to get? Would you resist? If
     there existed a resistance movement, would you join it?

     On 11/16/11 7:42 PM, Victoria Allen wrote:

       WHOA.
       Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
       Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
       Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 18:38:01 -0600
       To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
       ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
       Cc: Anya Alfano&lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
       Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
       CODE
       New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
       agent.

       There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green
       Resistance. They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical
       named Lierre Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance:
       Strategy to Save the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it.
       The movement advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to
       reach their eco goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla
       tactics to defeat current institutions when it comes to the
       environment. Whether anyone in the Fed or elsewhere classifies this
       group as eco-terror or not, I don't know, but they are nothing but and
       should be watched.

       http://deepgreenresistance.org/

       The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
       hall, however, things were not "radical" enough for them since they do
       not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on
       Nov. 5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on 
       Nov. 4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and
       Deep Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the
       night. As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off
       71. The only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They
       have started a group called the "Phoenix Commune" and intend to make
       their base out there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says
       they told him that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park
       officials can't make them leave. These Deep Green people worry me.
       When my Occupy people refer to them as "stupid, crazy motherfuckers",
       that bothers me, because these Occupy people will tolerate just about
       anything.

       I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
       complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and
       ear open for anything they may plan for the complex.

       Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
       document called, "Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement" calling
       Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
       Americans.

       http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

       So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is
       focused on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be
       the ultimate outcome.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-17 14:51:22</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1984023_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1990273</id>
    <title>[alpha] Fw: Oslo
</title>
    <description>   Trapwire

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:18:40 -0500 (CDT)
   To: burton@stratfor.com&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Oslo
   99 percent sure. Some reports already confirming.
    
   From: burton@stratfor.com [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, July 22, 2011 12:15 PM
   To: Michael Maness
   Subject: Re: Oslo
    
   Think it was a bomb?

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:00:28 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Oslo

   My money's on a Libyan connection.

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 18:31:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1990273_-alpha-fw-oslo-.html</permalink>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>1996531</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged "Anonymous" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise "anonymous"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-10 19:47:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1996531_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2000103</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] G3* - PAKISTAN/MIL - 19 brigadiers promoted to major
	generals
</title>
    <description>   We have a source among these 19 and he is a rising star within the
   hierarchy and is seen as having a really good shot at the top job.

   On 8/10/11 9:53 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

     19 brigadiers promoted to major generals
     http://www.geo.tv/8-10-2011/84810.htm

      Updated at: 1335 PST,  Wednesday, August 10, 2011
     19 brigadiers promoted to major generals RAWALPINDI: The Pakistan Army
     Promotion Board approved the promotion of 19 brigadiers to the rank of
     major general on Wednesday, Geo News reported.

     The decision was made at the promotion board meeting held at the General
     Headquarters in Rawalpindi chaired by Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq
     Pervez Kayani. All corps commanders, principal staff officers and senior
     army officials were also present in the meeting.

     The names of 19 brigadiers who were promoted to major general include:
     Umar Durrani, Ahmed Mahmood, Tariq Masood, Tahir Javed, Nazir Butt,
     Mazhar Saleem, Mohammad Jaffar, Najamul Hasan, Ghulam Qamar, Ali Abbas,
     Amir Riaz, Abid Rafeeq, Asif Khatak, Jameel Rehmat, Saleem Raza, Malik
     Abbas, Syed Badshah Hussain, Shahab Naqvi and M. Junaid.

     19 brigadiers promoted to major generals
     Published: August 10, 2011

     http://tribune.com.pk/story/228284/19-brigadiers-promoted-to-major-generals/

     RAWALPINDI: The Pakistan Army Promotion Board approved the elevation of
     19 brigadiers to the rank of major general on Wednesday.

     The decision was made at the promotion board meeting held at the General
     Headquarters in Rawalpindi.

     The meeting was headed by Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Pervez
     Kayani and attended by all corps commanders, principal staff officers
     and senior army officials.

     After the two day meeting, the names of 19 brigadiers who will be
     promoted to the rank of major general, were finally approved today.

     19 Brigadier promoted to rank of Major General
     RAWALPINDI - 10th August 2011 (8 hours ago)
     By APP
     http://www.aaj.tv/2011/08/19-brigadiers-promoted-to-major-generals/
     The selection board for promotion of brigadier to the rank of major
     general approved promotions of 19 brigadiers of different arms and
     services of Pakistan Army.

     The decision was made at the promotion board meeting held at the General
     Headquarters in Rawalpindi.

     The meeting was headed by Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Pervez
     Kayani and attended by all corps commanders, principal staff officers
     and senior army officials.

     According to well-placed sources here on Wednesday, those officers who
     have been promoted include, Brig Umar Durrani, Brig. Ahmed Mehmood, Brig
     Tariq Masood, Brig. Tahir Javed, Brig. Nazir Butt, Brig. Mazhar Saleem,
     Brig. Muhammad Jafar, Brig. Najam ul Hassan, Brig. Ghulam Qamar, Brig.
     Ali Abbas, Brig. Aamir Riaz, Brig. Abid Rafique, Brig Asif Khattak,
     Brig. Jamil Rehmat Vance, Brig. Ali Raza, Brig. Malik Abbas, Brig. Syed
     Badshah Hussain, Brig. Shahab Naqvi and Brig. M. Junaid.

         19 brigadiers promoted to major generals
     http://www.pakwatan.com/latest_news1.php?id=2744
     10/08/11  RAWALPINDI -The Pakistan Army Promotion Board approved the
     elevation of 19 brigadiers to the rank of major general on Wednesday.

     The decision was made at the promotion board meeting held at the General
     Headquarters in Rawalpindi.

     The meeting was headed by Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Pervez
     Kayani and attended by all corps commanders, principal staff officers
     and senior army officials.

     After the two day meeting, the names of 19 brigadiers who will be
     promoted to the rank of major general, were finally approved today.

     19 brigadiers who promoted to the rank of major general are Umar
     Durrani, Tariq Masood, Ahmed Mahmood, Tahir jawed, Nazir Batt, Mazhar
     Saleem, Amir Riaz, Najam ul Hassan, Muhammad Jafar, Ali Abbas, Malik
     Abbas, Malik Badshah Hussain, Shahab Naqvi, M. Junaid, Ghulam Qamar,
     Abid Rafiq, Asif Khatak, Saleem Raza and Jameel Rehmat.

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19
</description>
    <date>2011-08-10 23:06:21</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2000103_re-alpha-g3-pakistan-mil-19-brigadiers-promoted-to-major.html</permalink>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2005283</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - CHINA/VENEZUELA - Oil trading - CN13
</title>
    <description>   Kevin is digging into the Chinese refinery picture. We'll get a better
   picture on what they have the capacity to process and where all they are
   importing from.

   A note on the shipping costs: While the cost of shipping to China from
   Venezuela is something like 1.5 percent of the total cost of shipping,
   it's many hundreds of thousands of dollars cheaper to ship directly from
   Venezuela to the United States (depending on the size of the tanker). In
   the attached document, it would be about equivalent to shipping from
   Jakarta to Ningbo.

   So the cost of shipping to China is a small percentage of the total cost,
   but it's a cost that quickly adds up to millions of dollars.

   On 7/11/11 8:15 AM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

     that's 200k of potential use, not 200k of use

     me guesses that china produces more than enough of its own heavy oil to
     fill that up (otherwise they'd never have developed that particular
     refining capacity in the first place)

     On 7/6/11 8:01 AM, Matt Gertken wrote:

       Also notable that this basically confirms what we thought: China is
       turning around and selling a lot for profit, but it is still importing
       more too. 200,000bpd may not sound like much, but it is higher than
       China was importing five years ago (about 80,000bpd). This defeats the
       theory that it is somehow too expensive due to shipping costs. Of
       course, i agree with source that we shd try to contact Dalian refinery
       , that was a good tidbit

       On 7/5/11 11:47 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

         Right, that's the assumption we started with for the tasking. The
         purpose here is to try to quantify the amount being turned around
         and resold to the US so that we can put the export numbers we're
         getting in context. The idea is to get us a picture of how much is
         being sold at a cut rate to intermediary purchasers, and how much is
         actually being diversified to other markets.

         On 7/5/11 9:44 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

           something to note here -- any claims  or figures of VZ reducing
           its dependency on the US or vice-versa need to be tempered with
           the fact that a lot of oil is still being sold to the US through
           intermediaries friendly to Chavez... China being a big one.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: "Jennifer Richmond" &lt;richmond@stratfor.com&gt;
           To: alpha@stratfor.com
           Sent: Tuesday, July 5, 2011 12:40:59 AM
           Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - CHINA/VENEZUELA - Oil trading - CN13

           **Original insight tasking from Karen below insight

           SOURCE: CN13
           ATTRIBUTION: Foreign consultant helping western companies invest
           in China, specialty in Latam/China relations, also in the process
           of setting up PE funds for Chinese to invest in Latam.
           SOURCE DESCRIPTION: CEO and founder Sinolatin Capital
           PUBLICATION: Yes
           SOURCE RELIABILITY: B/C
           ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
           SPECIAL HANDLING: None
           SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

           PDVSA produces heavy crude as we know (as much solid as liquid).
           Most of it still goes to the US because the only refineries that
           can process this are in the US. Hess and PDVSA have a JV called
           Hovensa if I'm not mistaken. So what can actually go to China?
           Well for all the talk about the PetroChina/PDVSA refinery in
           Guandong to process heavy crude, it still hasn't been built.
           They've been talking about it for years. If I recall, that
           facility is supposed to process 400,000 bbl per day when built. So
           the only other place in China that can process Venezuelan crude is
           in Dalian. This is owned by PetroChina as well and also has a
           capacity of roughly 400,000 bbl. As far as I know the Dalian
           refinery is processing half from the middle east. So assuming that
           they get oil from Venezuela, the most that they can process in
           China is 200,000 bbl. But if you factor in the shipping costs,
           etc, its better for China to sell the oil to the US.

            

           At the end of last year Wikileaks published something that said
           that China is getting oil at $5 and then selling to US refineries
           for a huge profit. So what? Aren't the Cubans doing the same
           thing? Of course they are. And so are crooked traders (Venezuelans
           who are friends with Chavez). Because Chavez doesn't want to sell
           directly to the "Imperialists" he has a bunch of cronies to whom
           he gives oil at favorable prices. And these cronies sell to the US
           at huge margins and make a bundle. I'm sure they give Chavez and
           some of the generals a personal cut of their profits. I am sure
           Chavez has offshore bank accounts with lots of money from these
           sources.

            

           As to your specific question on exactly how much oil goes to
           China, you are best off contacting people at Petrochina's Dalian
           refinery.

            

           Original insight tasking from Karen:
           Any quick thoughts on where Venezuelan oil is going? We know that
           while exports declined overall, sales to Asia (China) have more
           than doubled in the past year. What I am wondering is how much of
           that is actually being shipped to China, and how much is being
           turned around and sold at a profit to the United States. I have
           the same question about sales to Europe that have been reportedly
           increasing. I know that this is something that has been reported
           in the open source as happening with Ecuador's oil -- China's
           loans for oil program has Ecuador paying back the loan in oil,
           which the Chinese then turn around and sell to the West Coast
           market.

           It really just makes sense for oil to be sold to the US in this
           case, since the US has refineries specifically tuned to the
           Venezuelan blends. From what I understand there is a surplus of
           heavy crude in Europe, and not much of an increased capacity to
           handle it.

 --
 Matt Gertken
 Senior Asia Pacific analyst
 US: +001.512.744.4085
 Mobile: +33(0)67.793.2417
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-11 17:21:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-10 21:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2005283_re-alpha-insight-china-venezuela-oil-trading-cn13-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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    <files>
      <file><path>attach/10/10746_Chinese Oil Sh.xls</path><size>54976</size><md5></md5><sha1>deeae37a721cd1b42a1c38e61e95dcc8f5fd1380</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2006944</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   We don't know

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:12:04 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   Was the shooter a Libyan?

   On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:13:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2006944_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2007860</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror
	Threat
</title>
    <description>   thoughts?

   On 11/22/10 11:00 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

     It is up to you and CT how you approach this. On the short-term, this
     looks like something you can handle without me. If you want to dabble in
     the more long-term view of what is going on here, I would love to help.

     On 11/22/10 10:58 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

       In the more long-term, I think an analysis of the German intelligence
       agencies would be good too. They have been pretty decimated by the
       Cold War and by all the problems associated with running an
       intelligence agency in a post-Gestapo country. If Germany is ever
       going to become a world power again, however, they would need to
       overcome these deamons as well. That is sort of the last straw for
       Germany, the one that is going to be most sensitive to overcome. But
       perhaps this case may illustrate how they are already overcoming these
       issues.

       On 11/22/10 10:50 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         Main problem is that Der Spiegel is just that good, they've at least
         touched on most of what I would want to say about it.  The main
         thing here is how the politics of a terror threat/alert coincide
         with the reality of the threat itself. 

         We saw that Germany was fairly relaxed bout the earlier threat in
         Europe released by the US.  I'm not sure if that was the same as the
         info that the FBI passed over about this shia group, Saif (I don't
         know anything about them).  But something changed, as we noted last
         week in their interpretation.  That seems to go down to this virtual
         walk-in.  The one thing I was left confused about is whether BKA had
         ever been in contact with this source before.  It sounds like he
         cold called them.  It's common knowledge that walk-ins, rather than
         recruits, are nearly always the best sources.  But at the same time,
         they are very suspicious as double agents.  If this was a US source
         they would be freaking the fuck out after having Al-Balawi turn on
         them.  The germans seem to have cooler heads, but they will be
         working 24/7 to verify the source (let me make another plug for John
         Lecarre's A Most Wanted Man here, most of his career was in
         Germany). 

         They've clearly got enough corroborating information that they
         consider this a real threat.  But politically they are faced with
         the universal 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' alert
         problem.  If the Interior ministry doesn't say something, they will
         be liable if an attack occurs.  Look at the constant press over
         information on the warning intelligence for Mumbai.  As we've said
         before, simply issuing the warning may help to deter the attackers. 

         The real important bit here, is that it seems the germans have
         fairly good intelligence.  While this attack is still not happening
         tomorrow, they have a lot of details about what might be in the
         works, rather than a single-source intercept that indicates some
         vague threat.  It seems they've increased security pretty well at
         the Bundestag, and want to add to the presence at any possible
         target.  This is where we seem them scrambling, and where their
         intelligence holes are. 

         The task now for the germans is to verify this source.  Maybe even
         pick him up and put him on ice somewhere (Fred/Stick?), not in
         GErmany but in Pakistan/Afghanistan.  That will require some
         cooperation with either/both the Americans and Pakistanis.  They
         also need to verify all the bio information they have on these 4-6
         guys trying to get into germany and watch travelers very carefully. 
         The germans seem to be very good at surveilling these threats within
         Germany, so their best luck may come when one of the guys overseas
         contacts a local already under surveillance. 

         At minimum, this could be a pretty interesting tearline this week. 
         Both the walk-in issues and the CIA/FBI liaison conflicts that I
         havne't gotten into here. 
         On 11/22/10 10:34 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

           Any thoughts on where you guys are thinking of going with this?

           Der Spiegel article is indeed interesting.

           On 11/22/10 9:28 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

             Great report from Der Spiegel (thanks Mikey).  I suggest anyone
             interested to read the whole thing.  They ask the right
             questions, and while not as much detail as I hoped, give us a
             much better understanding on the threat in Germany. 

             The BKA (germany's FBI) must be extremely busy verifying the
             details of this virtual walk-in.  It obviously caused the
             germans to shit their pants.  But the real questions are buried
             in the article---how real was this plot, how real is the source,
             is the source just trying to get back to the land of brezeln and
             bier? Trying to double-cross them somehow?

             Also note the tip off from the FBI (cue fred), not the usual CIA
             liaison with BND. 

             For Eurasia, there's a lot in here on the internal politics of
             the interior minister position, and the relation between state
             and federal government. 

             On 11/22/10 8:55 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

               -------- Original Message --------

                Subject: [OS] GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror    
                         Threat                                               
                   Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 08:38:21 -0600                      
                   From: Graham Smith &lt;graham.smith@stratfor.com&gt;             
               Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                        
                     To: os@stratfor.com                                      

                11/22/2010 11:38 AM
               Fears of a Mumbai Redux
               The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat

               http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,730377,00.html
               By Matthias Bartsch, Yassin Musharbash and Holger Stark

               Germany is currently in a state of high alert. Security
               officials are warning that they have concrete information
               pointing to a possible terror attack on the federal parliament
               building in Berlin, a massively popular tourist attraction.
               The days of Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere's reserved
               stances in dealing with such warnings appear to be over.

               The call came from abroad, and the man speaking hurriedly on
               the other end of the line sounded as if he feared for his
               life. He wanted out, he told the officers of the German
               Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) -- out of the terrorist
               scene. He wanted to come back to Germany, back to his family.
               Then he asked if German officials could help him.

               Right now, they're trying to do just that. The BKA is pursuing
               the case under the codename "Nova." The apparently remorseful
               man could be an important possible whistleblower from a
               dangerous region of the globe. In fact, he is also the most
               recent reason why German Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere
               put the entire country in a state of fright on Wednesday.

               During a hastily called press conference that day, de Maiziere
               stated that Germany faced the threat of terrorist attacks that
               might be launched against the country at some point in
               November. As he put it, Germany is "presently dealing with a
               new situation."
               Just two days earlier, the source had called for the third
               time in just a short period and provided more information. He
               told officials that a small group of terrorists wanted to
               conduct a raid on the Reichstag building in Berlin, which
               houses the federal parliament, and that that was only one of
               the targets included in their attack plans.

               Germany on High Alert

               Since then, Germany has been in a state of high alert. The
               Reichstag is surrounded with barricades and its popular cupola
               tourist attraction temporarily closed to visitors. Police
               armed with submachine guns are patrolling major railway
               stations and airports. And vacations have been called off for
               officials at the country's security agencies. Wherever they
               have cause for doing so, the authorities are secretly
               monitoring communications, conducting surveillance operations
               and launching undercover investigations. At the moment,
               investigators seem to be at a loss; their modus operandi:
               "We'll prod the shrubs and see if we can flush out any birds."

               "There is cause for worry, but no cause for hysteria," de
               Maiziere assured his listeners. But while he has never been
               much of an agitator, his colleagues at the state level have
               described the situation in much more drastic terms. Uwe
               Schu:nemann, for example, who has been the interior minister
               of the northwestern state of Lower Saxony since 2003, stated
               that he had "never experienced a heightened security situation
               like this one." And Berlin Senator for the Interior Ehrhart
               Ko:rting, whose position is tantamount to that of a government
               minister in the city-state, has already even gone so far as to
               call on the inhabitants of the German capital city to report
               suspicious-looking individuals of Arab origin to the police.
               "If you suddenly see three somewhat strange-looking men who
               are new to your neighborhood, who hide their faces and who
               only speak Arabic," Ko:rting said, "you should report them to
               the authorities."

               Under heightened pressure, officials in Germany's 16 federal
               states are now checking to see when and where major events are
               scheduled to take place this coming week within their
               boundaries. And nothing suggested as a possible target is
               being discounted, no matter how unlikely. For example,
               officials in Rhineland-Palatinate warned the state's interior
               minister, Karl Peter Burch, that there was always a lot going
               on at IKEA stores on Saturdays.[WTF]

               Serenity, Scaremongering and Strategy

               Since last week, German politicians at both the state and
               federal levels have once again had to figure out how they will
               handle themselves when making warnings about terrorist
               attacks. They have had to come up with a language that can
               simultaneously convey both an alert and a sense of calm.

               This is no easy task. For one thing, this isn't the first time
               this has happened. In September 2009, for example, right
               before federal elections were held, there were concrete
               threats that resulted in a heightened security situation. But,
               in the end, nothing happened. This time around, people are
               wondering whether they are on the precipice of an emergency or
               whether these are once again empty threats.

               Still, one thing is certain: For the time being, Germany has
               become a different country -- more nervous, more anxious, more
               agitated. And Germany's domestic security policies are being
               put to the test.

               When Interior Minister de Maiziere assumed his office in
               October 2009 in conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel's
               government, he aimed to cool down the heated sense of alarm
               regularly fanned out by his predecessors. What's more, the man
               who had served as Merkel's chief of staff in Chancellery until
               being moved to the role of interior minister in her new
               government, was given the task of nurturing a more relaxed
               relationship between her party, the Christian Democratic Union
               (CDU), and its new coalition partner, the business-friendly
               Free Democratic Party (FDP). In particular, it was his job to
               not draw out the long-standing conflict over domestic security
               policies with the Justice Ministry, which has been led since
               the 2009 election by Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, a
               member of the FDP. Indeed, Merkel feared that the quarrelsome
               FDP might try to capitalize on the issue to win over more
               voters, so she assigned de Maiziere to prevent that from
               happening.

               In fact, the plan was to repeat the same strategy that the CDU
               and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union
               (CSU), had used when they were in the so-called "grand
               coalition" with the center-left Social Democratic Party,
               between 2005 and 2009. At the time, they made a point of
               undermining the SPD by championing what had traditionally been
               the latter party's issues.

               A Game-Changer

               But now the game plan has changed. This November will
               drastically alter de Maiziere's understanding of his role in
               office. If he tries to return things to their previous state
               of calm, he's going to have a very tough time. In fact, it's
               much more likely that he will be a completely different
               interior minister.

               For a while now, de Maiziere's softer stance has prompted
               opposition by politicians on the right involved with domestic
               security issues. But they are now calling louder than ever for
               a tougher course to be followed. Merkel is also adjusting to
               the new situation and is reportedly happy with the way de
               Maiziere handled himself last week. Likewise, no one seems to
               have voiced any criticism last Thursday evening during a
               meeting of the Coalition Committee, a regular gathering of the
               parties that are part of the government.

               The almost complete lack of protest has a lot to do with where
               the alarming information is coming from. In fact, information
               regarding the supposedly imminent attacks has come from two
               independent sources. Shortly before receiving the telephone
               call about the planned attacks, BKA officials had received a
               cable from their American counterparts at the FBI, America's
               federal police force, warning of possible attacks.

               Still, what truth is there in these "security-related" pieces
               of information coming from both domestic and foreign sources?
               And, given all the discrepancies in the warning messages, just
               how much do they deserve to be trusted? Indeed, even among
               security officials themselves, there is some doubt about how
               legitimate these statements are -- and about just how acute
               the danger threatening Germany really is.

               An Attack Modelled after Mumbai[plot details in this section]
               What the caller reported was undeniably alarming. According to
               him, al-Qaida and associated groups based in Pakistan were
               making joint preparations for an attack in Germany. One idea
               was to remotely detonate a bomb using a mobile phone. Another
               called for a small group of terrorists to storm the Reichstag
               with guns blazing, take hostages and end everything in one
               calamitous bloodbath. Indeed, BKA officials learned that the
               latter plan had been modeled on the storming of luxury hotels
               in Mumbai, the Indian capital, almost exactly two years ago,
               in a massacre that left 175 people dead.

               According to the caller, the plan called for the terrorists to
               procure the submachine guns, automatic rifles, explosives and
               whatever else they would need to storm Germany's parliament
               building in the Balkans. He said that two men had already
               traveled to Germany six to eight weeks earlier, adding that
               one had the nom de guerre of "Abu Mohammed" and that the other
               one was a German of Turkish origin. Both apparently had roots
               in the Greater Berlin metropolitan area, were currently
               unemployed and living off of welfare payments and had immersed
               themselves in the anonymity provided by a major city -- until
               the time should come for their activation.

               Likewise, there were allegedly four other volunteers --
               including a German, a Turk, a North African and another
               jihadist of unknown identity -- in the training camps run by
               al-Qaida and related groups waiting for the signal to travel
               to Germany. And, according to the telephone source, al-Qaida's
               plan was to attack in February or March.
               The only question now relates to just how credible the
               caller's statements are. He is an insider who joined up with
               armed groups several months ago and has earned a reputation as
               a fanatic fighter.
               But could it be that he is only trying to tell German
               officials the juiciest things possible in order to raise his
               own market value and thereby prompt them to extract him from
               the terror scene? Or could it be that al-Qaida is even
               planning a second spectacular coup like the one in December
               2009, when the Americans allowed a supposedly top-level
               turncoat onto an American military base without any sort of
               pat-down, who went on to detonate his explosive vest and blow
               seven CIA officials to bits?

               A Strange Message

               A clear picture has yet to emerge. And one reason for this is
               also the fact that it was only two weeks ago that the FBI
               first decided to share information about another possible
               attack with German officials.

               In this case, even the way contact was made was unusual. Under
               normal circumstances, liaisons from the CIA station in Germany
               are the ones to communicate American warnings to their German
               counterparts. But, this time around, it was an apparently
               particularly anxious FBI that chose to directly notify the
               BKA.
               The FBI told the Germans about an obscure Indian group called
               "Saif," or "sword." Despite being a Shiite group, it had
               allegedly made a pact with al-Qaida, a Sunni organization, and
               sent five of its men to the Pakistani province of Waziristan
               for training. According to the FBI, two volunteers -- who were
               already equipped with visas allowing them to travel freely
               within the 25 European countries belonging to the Schengen
               zone -- were supposedly already en route to Germany and would
               enter the United Arab Emirates on Monday, Nov. 22. There, they
               would allegedly be provided with new travel documents before
               traveling on to Germany. One of the men is supposedly named
               "Khan," which is about as common in that part of the world as
               "Smith" is in English-speaking countries. And no firm
               conclusion had been made about their nationalities.

               The FBI agents even named the presumed masterminds behind the
               operation. A certain Mushtaq Altaf Bin-Khadri, who is in
               charge of finances and training for "Saif," allegedly
               dispatched the terrorist squad. But the FBI was not in a
               position to comment on the targets of the two men in Germany.

               One name came up time and again in the communique, and one
               that pricked the Germans' ears: Dawood Ibrahim. The
               54-year-old arms trader is "India's most-wanted man." The US
               government has listed him as a "global terrorist" and
               persuaded the United Nations to place his name on a list of
               supporters of terror. Ibrahim is rumored to be the head of
               D-Company, a criminal syndicate named after himself, and is
               believed to be in charge of smuggling the suspected terrorists
               into Germany.

               Both the FBI and the BKA are attaching a lot of importance to
               the information in the FBI communique. But the intelligence
               services of the two countries -- the CIA in the United States
               and the BND and Office for the Protection of the Constitution
               in Germany, the country's foreign and domestic intelligence
               agencies, respectively -- point to internal contradictions as
               reasons for their skepticism. As they see it, for example, it
               is highly unlikely that a Shiite group would team up with
               Sunni terrorists, especially since a good part of al-Qaida
               propaganda vilifies Shiites. Other reasons for doubt include
               the facts that none of the intelligence agencies was
               previously familiar with an organization called "Saif," that
               there have been no previously recorded threats against Germany
               by Indian extremists, and that the whole scenario seems rather
               implausible.

               On the other hand, the FBI information is uncommonly concrete.
               In addition to the names of the suspects, it also provides
               information about the exact day on which they are supposed to
               arrive in the United Arab Emirates. Moreover, Ibrahim is
               believed to be one of the men behind the terror attacks in
               Mumbai. If he really is involved, that alone would be reason
               enough for worry.

               Abnormal Circumstances

               Under normal circumstances, a message of this kind from the
               United States would no doubt be cause for serious-minded
               scrutiny, but it would not be a cause for alarm. For example,
               the BKA would go through all recent visa applications, and
               federal police officers would take a closer look at all the
               people entering Germany from Arab states. And the intelligence
               services would make the rounds to see if any of its partners
               had any helpful information on the matter.

               Indeed, under normal circumstances, there are always a lot of
               these communiques, most of which turn out to be false alarms.
               But these are no normal circumstances. Germany is in a state
               of emergency. Other countries, such as the United States,
               employ a system of official warning levels based on color
               codes that change -- from yellow to orange, for example --
               when the danger level is thought to increase. But, in Germany,
               the interior minister is the barometer: He consults with
               experts -- and then it is he who must call the shots.

               For the minister, a situation like this presents a dilemma. If
               he remains silent and something happens, he's a failure. If he
               makes loud warning and nothing happens, he's just a
               rabble-rouser trying to push through controversial tougher
               security laws. And, of course, the public never thanks you if
               everyday life continues in a normal, peaceful way.

               Absolute Security Remains a Pipe Dream

               When de Maiziere became Germany's interior minister, he had
               planned to lead the ministry in a level-headed way. For
               example, he prefers to use phrases such as "internal calm"
               rather than "internal security." And it was only six weeks ago
               that he uttered the sentence: "There's no cause for alarm."
               But, since then, the chorus of warning voices has only
               ballooned in size.

               This change in course is the combined result of everything
               that happened beforehand. It might very well turn out that the
               alleged Indian terror squad stays home and that the raid on
               the Reichstag never happens. But what will remain is a
               well-founded supposition that there is a critical mass of
               terrorists in the border region between Afghanistan and
               Pakistan that is thinking about launching attacks in Europe --
               and certainly in Germany, as well.

               Raw Nerves

               Given such circumstances, there is a major sense of alarm
               among German officials. Last Thursday, just a day after de
               Maiziere's shocking press conference, the BKA issued a press
               release "in connection with the current high-risk situation."
               It reported that a piece of suspicious luggage had been
               discovered a day earlier in Windhoek, the capital of Namibia,
               before being loaded onto a plane bound for Germany. The laptop
               bag contained batteries, wires, a detonator and a clock -- in
               other words, all the ingredients you need for a potential
               airborne catastrophe.

               It sounded as if another terror plot had been foiled. Had
               there been a plan to blow up Air Berlin Flight 7377 en route
               to Munich? And had the authorities, yet again, discovered an
               explosive device at the last minute? In the end, all the worry
               was unfounded. As it turned out, the piece of luggage was a
               test device built by a company that designs "real test"
               suitcases to be used to test security measures. It remains
               unclear who checked the bag in. But the fact that the BKA was
               so quick to go into alarm mode -- and publicly so -- has been
               a communications debacle.

               Of course, these days, nobody wants to be the one that wasn't
               sufficiently circumspect, the one who took too long to speak
               up. No one wants a replay of situations like the one from the
               beginning of November, when de Maiziere didn't know for hours
               whether the package that had arrived at the Chancellery
               contained actual explosives or was just a false alarm. Now,
               the threshold for sounding the alarm is already much lower.

               Bonded by Fear

               Of course, you can never be too sure. Over the last 12 months,
               a series of attacks concocted in the Afghan-Pakistani border
               region have been foiled in the West. For example, in May, a
               car bomb set in New York's Times Square by a man with ties to
               the Pakistani Taliban failed to properly detonate. In
               Copenhagen, al-Qaida had made plans to storm the offices of
               the Jyllands-Posten newspaper as revenge for its 2005
               publishing of caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad. In October
               2009, David Headley, an American citizen with Pakistani roots,
               was arrested after having already visited the newspaper's
               offices in order to scout them out before the planned attack.
               Other targets reportedly included the subway systems of New
               York City and Washington.

               On the other hand, absolute security is a pipe dream. For
               example, British authorities had even conducted rehearsals for
               how to respond to possible attacks. But, even so, when attacks
               claiming 56 lives (including those of four attackers) did
               strike London, on July 7, 2005, they were unable to prevent
               them. Likewise, US intelligence services had warned India a
               number of times that terrorists were planning attacks in
               Mumbai.

               The new situation in Germany has at least had one positive
               side effect: For the time being, the traditionally quarrelsome
               interior ministers from both the state and the federal levels
               have refrained from their usual bickering. Following informal
               talks held last Thursday in Hamburg, Minister Bruch of
               Rhineland-Palatinate noted that he had "never experienced such
               harmony within this group" that has apparently been bonded
               together by their shared fear.

               Translated from the German by Josh Ward

             --

             Sean Noonan

             Tactical Analyst

             Office: +1 512-279-9479

             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

             www.stratfor.com

           --

           - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

           Marko Papic

           Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

           STRATFOR

           700 Lavaca Street - 900

           Austin, Texas

           78701 USA

           P: + 1-512-744-4094

           marko.papic@stratfor.com

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

       --

       - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

       Marko Papic

       Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

       STRATFOR

       700 Lavaca Street - 900

       Austin, Texas

       78701 USA

       P: + 1-512-744-4094

       marko.papic@stratfor.com

     --

     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

     Marko Papic

     Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

     STRATFOR

     700 Lavaca Street - 900

     Austin, Texas

     78701 USA

     P: + 1-512-744-4094

     marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-22 18:04:12</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2007860_re-ct-discussion-germany-ct-the-story-behind-germany-s.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2007872</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror
 Threat
</title>
    <description>   Europeans have still found a way to blame Americans for warnings in the
   past.

   And yes, something very well could be in the works, but given the fact
   that jihadists constantly want to attack the west, is it really at all
   significant that something is in the works?

   I think we'd seen past plots with travel plans... I'd have to look harder
   to get specifics, but I don't think that's all that novel.

   Agree that the security officials are in a catch-22 situation.

   On 11/22/2010 11:43 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     There is a notable difference here.  And that is the German warning
     issued last week.  It was based on their own intelligence not American
     intelligence--so no blaming americans this time.  Yes, it's true that
     they don't have the capability to attack the Reichstag, and theat the
     attack is not imminent, as I pointed out.  But on the other hand, like
     with cargo parcels, it doesn't mean that something is not in the works. 
     Have we ever seen information this specific before on the individuals
     and their travel plans? 

     This is the conundrum of warning intelligence,  when the warning is
     given (just to policymakers, or to the public), measures are taken that
     prevent it.  It then comes the boy-who-cried-wolf, even if the warning
     was originally accurate. 

     Not to mention, given what happened with the last double agent to become
     public (Khost), it will be interesting to follow this one. 
     On 11/22/10 11:33 AM, Ben West wrote:

       I agree that the spiegel article was good - but this is the kind of
       thing we've seen over and over again in Europe. Source from durkastan
       says that aq is going to target Europe and kill lots of people and
       that attackers are en route. Everyone gets freaked out. Nothing
       significant happens. Europe blames US of scare mongering.

       Certainly islamists have europe in their cross-hairs, but if an attack
       is going to happen, it's not going be preceded by this kind of
       publicity.

       Also, attacking the reichstag? I mean, it's possible to ATTACK it, but
       they've got a pretty heavy security presence there that would prevent
       a hostage situation. I was there a few years ago. The public entryway
       is confined to one doorway with a heavy guard presence, metal
       detectors, x-ray machines, etc. If anything, an attack could kill lots
       of tourists lined up outside, but it would take a very serious force
       to be able to gain entrance to the reichstag and an even more well
       trained force to actually hold hostages. This sounds like a pipe-dream
       to me.

       On 11/22/2010 11:04 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         thoughts?

         On 11/22/10 11:00 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

           It is up to you and CT how you approach this. On the short-term,
           this looks like something you can handle without me. If you want
           to dabble in the more long-term view of what is going on here, I
           would love to help.

           On 11/22/10 10:58 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

             In the more long-term, I think an analysis of the German
             intelligence agencies would be good too. They have been pretty
             decimated by the Cold War and by all the problems associated
             with running an intelligence agency in a post-Gestapo country.
             If Germany is ever going to become a world power again, however,
             they would need to overcome these deamons as well. That is sort
             of the last straw for Germany, the one that is going to be most
             sensitive to overcome. But perhaps this case may illustrate how
             they are already overcoming these issues.

             On 11/22/10 10:50 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

               Main problem is that Der Spiegel is just that good, they've at
               least touched on most of what I would want to say about it. 
               The main thing here is how the politics of a terror
               threat/alert coincide with the reality of the threat itself. 

               We saw that Germany was fairly relaxed bout the earlier threat
               in Europe released by the US.  I'm not sure if that was the
               same as the info that the FBI passed over about this shia
               group, Saif (I don't know anything about them).  But something
               changed, as we noted last week in their interpretation.  That
               seems to go down to this virtual walk-in.  The one thing I was
               left confused about is whether BKA had ever been in contact
               with this source before.  It sounds like he cold called them. 
               It's common knowledge that walk-ins, rather than recruits, are
               nearly always the best sources.  But at the same time, they
               are very suspicious as double agents.  If this was a US source
               they would be freaking the fuck out after having Al-Balawi
               turn on them.  The germans seem to have cooler heads, but they
               will be working 24/7 to verify the source (let me make another
               plug for John Lecarre's A Most Wanted Man here, most of his
               career was in Germany). 

               They've clearly got enough corroborating information that they
               consider this a real threat.  But politically they are faced
               with the universal 'damned if you do, damned if you don't'
               alert problem.  If the Interior ministry doesn't say
               something, they will be liable if an attack occurs.  Look at
               the constant press over information on the warning
               intelligence for Mumbai.  As we've said before, simply issuing
               the warning may help to deter the attackers. 

               The real important bit here, is that it seems the germans have
               fairly good intelligence.  While this attack is still not
               happening tomorrow, they have a lot of details about what
               might be in the works, rather than a single-source intercept
               that indicates some vague threat.  It seems they've increased
               security pretty well at the Bundestag, and want to add to the
               presence at any possible target.  This is where we seem them
               scrambling, and where their intelligence holes are. 

               The task now for the germans is to verify this source.  Maybe
               even pick him up and put him on ice somewhere (Fred/Stick?),
               not in GErmany but in Pakistan/Afghanistan.  That will require
               some cooperation with either/both the Americans and
               Pakistanis.  They also need to verify all the bio information
               they have on these 4-6 guys trying to get into germany and
               watch travelers very carefully.  The germans seem to be very
               good at surveilling these threats within Germany, so their
               best luck may come when one of the guys overseas contacts a
               local already under surveillance. 

               At minimum, this could be a pretty interesting tearline this
               week.  Both the walk-in issues and the CIA/FBI liaison
               conflicts that I havne't gotten into here. 
               On 11/22/10 10:34 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

                 Any thoughts on where you guys are thinking of going with
                 this?

                 Der Spiegel article is indeed interesting.

                 On 11/22/10 9:28 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                   Great report from Der Spiegel (thanks Mikey).  I suggest
                   anyone interested to read the whole thing.  They ask the
                   right questions, and while not as much detail as I hoped,
                   give us a much better understanding on the threat in
                   Germany. 

                   The BKA (germany's FBI) must be extremely busy verifying
                   the details of this virtual walk-in.  It obviously caused
                   the germans to shit their pants.  But the real questions
                   are buried in the article---how real was this plot, how
                   real is the source, is the source just trying to get back
                   to the land of brezeln and bier? Trying to double-cross
                   them somehow?

                   Also note the tip off from the FBI (cue fred), not the
                   usual CIA liaison with BND. 

                   For Eurasia, there's a lot in here on the internal
                   politics of the interior minister position, and the
                   relation between state and federal government. 

                   On 11/22/10 8:55 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

                     -------- Original Message --------

                      Subject: [OS] GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's     
                               Terror Threat                                  
                         Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 08:38:21 -0600                
                         From: Graham Smith &lt;graham.smith@stratfor.com&gt;       
                     Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                  
                           To: os@stratfor.com                                

                      11/22/2010 11:38 AM
                     Fears of a Mumbai Redux
                     The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat

                     http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,730377,00.html
                     By Matthias Bartsch, Yassin Musharbash and Holger Stark

                     Germany is currently in a state of high alert. Security
                     officials are warning that they have concrete
                     information pointing to a possible terror attack on the
                     federal parliament building in Berlin, a massively
                     popular tourist attraction. The days of Interior
                     Minister Thomas de Maiziere's reserved stances in
                     dealing with such warnings appear to be over.

                     The call came from abroad, and the man speaking
                     hurriedly on the other end of the line sounded as if he
                     feared for his life. He wanted out, he told the officers
                     of the German Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) --
                     out of the terrorist scene. He wanted to come back to
                     Germany, back to his family. Then he asked if German
                     officials could help him.

                     Right now, they're trying to do just that. The BKA is
                     pursuing the case under the codename "Nova." The
                     apparently remorseful man could be an important possible
                     whistleblower from a dangerous region of the globe. In
                     fact, he is also the most recent reason why German
                     Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere put the entire
                     country in a state of fright on Wednesday.

                     During a hastily called press conference that day, de
                     Maiziere stated that Germany faced the threat of
                     terrorist attacks that might be launched against the
                     country at some point in November. As he put it, Germany
                     is "presently dealing with a new situation."
                     Just two days earlier, the source had called for the
                     third time in just a short period and provided more
                     information. He told officials that a small group of
                     terrorists wanted to conduct a raid on the Reichstag
                     building in Berlin, which houses the federal parliament,
                     and that that was only one of the targets included in
                     their attack plans.

                     Germany on High Alert

                     Since then, Germany has been in a state of high alert.
                     The Reichstag is surrounded with barricades and its
                     popular cupola tourist attraction temporarily closed to
                     visitors. Police armed with submachine guns are
                     patrolling major railway stations and airports. And
                     vacations have been called off for officials at the
                     country's security agencies. Wherever they have cause
                     for doing so, the authorities are secretly monitoring
                     communications, conducting surveillance operations and
                     launching undercover investigations. At the moment,
                     investigators seem to be at a loss; their modus
                     operandi: "We'll prod the shrubs and see if we can flush
                     out any birds."

                     "There is cause for worry, but no cause for hysteria,"
                     de Maiziere assured his listeners. But while he has
                     never been much of an agitator, his colleagues at the
                     state level have described the situation in much more
                     drastic terms. Uwe Schu:nemann, for example, who has
                     been the interior minister of the northwestern state of
                     Lower Saxony since 2003, stated that he had "never
                     experienced a heightened security situation like this
                     one." And Berlin Senator for the Interior Ehrhart
                     Ko:rting, whose position is tantamount to that of a
                     government minister in the city-state, has already even
                     gone so far as to call on the inhabitants of the German
                     capital city to report suspicious-looking individuals of
                     Arab origin to the police. "If you suddenly see three
                     somewhat strange-looking men who are new to your
                     neighborhood, who hide their faces and who only speak
                     Arabic," Ko:rting said, "you should report them to the
                     authorities."

                     Under heightened pressure, officials in Germany's 16
                     federal states are now checking to see when and where
                     major events are scheduled to take place this coming
                     week within their boundaries. And nothing suggested as a
                     possible target is being discounted, no matter how
                     unlikely. For example, officials in Rhineland-Palatinate
                     warned the state's interior minister, Karl Peter Burch,
                     that there was always a lot going on at IKEA stores on
                     Saturdays.[WTF]

                     Serenity, Scaremongering and Strategy

                     Since last week, German politicians at both the state
                     and federal levels have once again had to figure out how
                     they will handle themselves when making warnings about
                     terrorist attacks. They have had to come up with a
                     language that can simultaneously convey both an alert
                     and a sense of calm.

                     This is no easy task. For one thing, this isn't the
                     first time this has happened. In September 2009, for
                     example, right before federal elections were held, there
                     were concrete threats that resulted in a heightened
                     security situation. But, in the end, nothing happened.
                     This time around, people are wondering whether they are
                     on the precipice of an emergency or whether these are
                     once again empty threats.

                     Still, one thing is certain: For the time being, Germany
                     has become a different country -- more nervous, more
                     anxious, more agitated. And Germany's domestic security
                     policies are being put to the test.

                     When Interior Minister de Maiziere assumed his office in
                     October 2009 in conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel's
                     government, he aimed to cool down the heated sense of
                     alarm regularly fanned out by his predecessors. What's
                     more, the man who had served as Merkel's chief of staff
                     in Chancellery until being moved to the role of interior
                     minister in her new government, was given the task of
                     nurturing a more relaxed relationship between her party,
                     the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and its new
                     coalition partner, the business-friendly Free Democratic
                     Party (FDP). In particular, it was his job to not draw
                     out the long-standing conflict over domestic security
                     policies with the Justice Ministry, which has been led
                     since the 2009 election by Sabine
                     Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, a member of the FDP.
                     Indeed, Merkel feared that the quarrelsome FDP might try
                     to capitalize on the issue to win over more voters, so
                     she assigned de Maiziere to prevent that from happening.

                     In fact, the plan was to repeat the same strategy that
                     the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian
                     Social Union (CSU), had used when they were in the
                     so-called "grand coalition" with the center-left Social
                     Democratic Party, between 2005 and 2009. At the time,
                     they made a point of undermining the SPD by championing
                     what had traditionally been the latter party's issues.

                     A Game-Changer

                     But now the game plan has changed. This November will
                     drastically alter de Maiziere's understanding of his
                     role in office. If he tries to return things to their
                     previous state of calm, he's going to have a very tough
                     time. In fact, it's much more likely that he will be a
                     completely different interior minister.

                     For a while now, de Maiziere's softer stance has
                     prompted opposition by politicians on the right involved
                     with domestic security issues. But they are now calling
                     louder than ever for a tougher course to be followed.
                     Merkel is also adjusting to the new situation and is
                     reportedly happy with the way de Maiziere handled
                     himself last week. Likewise, no one seems to have voiced
                     any criticism last Thursday evening during a meeting of
                     the Coalition Committee, a regular gathering of the
                     parties that are part of the government.

                     The almost complete lack of protest has a lot to do with
                     where the alarming information is coming from. In fact,
                     information regarding the supposedly imminent attacks
                     has come from two independent sources. Shortly before
                     receiving the telephone call about the planned attacks,
                     BKA officials had received a cable from their American
                     counterparts at the FBI, America's federal police force,
                     warning of possible attacks.

                     Still, what truth is there in these "security-related"
                     pieces of information coming from both domestic and
                     foreign sources? And, given all the discrepancies in the
                     warning messages, just how much do they deserve to be
                     trusted? Indeed, even among security officials
                     themselves, there is some doubt about how legitimate
                     these statements are -- and about just how acute the
                     danger threatening Germany really is.

                     An Attack Modelled after Mumbai[plot details in this
                     section]
                     What the caller reported was undeniably alarming.
                     According to him, al-Qaida and associated groups based
                     in Pakistan were making joint preparations for an attack
                     in Germany. One idea was to remotely detonate a bomb
                     using a mobile phone. Another called for a small group
                     of terrorists to storm the Reichstag with guns blazing,
                     take hostages and end everything in one calamitous
                     bloodbath. Indeed, BKA officials learned that the latter
                     plan had been modeled on the storming of luxury hotels
                     in Mumbai, the Indian capital, almost exactly two years
                     ago, in a massacre that left 175 people dead.

                     According to the caller, the plan called for the
                     terrorists to procure the submachine guns, automatic
                     rifles, explosives and whatever else they would need to
                     storm Germany's parliament building in the Balkans. He
                     said that two men had already traveled to Germany six to
                     eight weeks earlier, adding that one had the nom de
                     guerre of "Abu Mohammed" and that the other one was a
                     German of Turkish origin. Both apparently had roots in
                     the Greater Berlin metropolitan area, were currently
                     unemployed and living off of welfare payments and had
                     immersed themselves in the anonymity provided by a major
                     city -- until the time should come for their activation.

                     Likewise, there were allegedly four other volunteers --
                     including a German, a Turk, a North African and another
                     jihadist of unknown identity -- in the training camps
                     run by al-Qaida and related groups waiting for the
                     signal to travel to Germany. And, according to the
                     telephone source, al-Qaida's plan was to attack in
                     February or March.
                     The only question now relates to just how credible the
                     caller's statements are. He is an insider who joined up
                     with armed groups several months ago and has earned a
                     reputation as a fanatic fighter.
                     But could it be that he is only trying to tell German
                     officials the juiciest things possible in order to raise
                     his own market value and thereby prompt them to extract
                     him from the terror scene? Or could it be that al-Qaida
                     is even planning a second spectacular coup like the one
                     in December 2009, when the Americans allowed a
                     supposedly top-level turncoat onto an American military
                     base without any sort of pat-down, who went on to
                     detonate his explosive vest and blow seven CIA officials
                     to bits?

                     A Strange Message

                     A clear picture has yet to emerge. And one reason for
                     this is also the fact that it was only two weeks ago
                     that the FBI first decided to share information about
                     another possible attack with German officials.

                     In this case, even the way contact was made was unusual.
                     Under normal circumstances, liaisons from the CIA
                     station in Germany are the ones to communicate American
                     warnings to their German counterparts. But, this time
                     around, it was an apparently particularly anxious FBI
                     that chose to directly notify the BKA.
                     The FBI told the Germans about an obscure Indian group
                     called "Saif," or "sword." Despite being a Shiite group,
                     it had allegedly made a pact with al-Qaida, a Sunni
                     organization, and sent five of its men to the Pakistani
                     province of Waziristan for training. According to the
                     FBI, two volunteers -- who were already equipped with
                     visas allowing them to travel freely within the 25
                     European countries belonging to the Schengen zone --
                     were supposedly already en route to Germany and would
                     enter the United Arab Emirates on Monday, Nov. 22.
                     There, they would allegedly be provided with new travel
                     documents before traveling on to Germany. One of the men
                     is supposedly named "Khan," which is about as common in
                     that part of the world as "Smith" is in English-speaking
                     countries. And no firm conclusion had been made about
                     their nationalities.

                     The FBI agents even named the presumed masterminds
                     behind the operation. A certain Mushtaq Altaf
                     Bin-Khadri, who is in charge of finances and training
                     for "Saif," allegedly dispatched the terrorist squad.
                     But the FBI was not in a position to comment on the
                     targets of the two men in Germany.

                     One name came up time and again in the communique, and
                     one that pricked the Germans' ears: Dawood Ibrahim. The
                     54-year-old arms trader is "India's most-wanted man."
                     The US government has listed him as a "global terrorist"
                     and persuaded the United Nations to place his name on a
                     list of supporters of terror. Ibrahim is rumored to be
                     the head of D-Company, a criminal syndicate named after
                     himself, and is believed to be in charge of smuggling
                     the suspected terrorists into Germany.

                     Both the FBI and the BKA are attaching a lot of
                     importance to the information in the FBI communique. But
                     the intelligence services of the two countries -- the
                     CIA in the United States and the BND and Office for the
                     Protection of the Constitution in Germany, the country's
                     foreign and domestic intelligence agencies, respectively
                     -- point to internal contradictions as reasons for their
                     skepticism. As they see it, for example, it is highly
                     unlikely that a Shiite group would team up with Sunni
                     terrorists, especially since a good part of al-Qaida
                     propaganda vilifies Shiites. Other reasons for doubt
                     include the facts that none of the intelligence agencies
                     was previously familiar with an organization called
                     "Saif," that there have been no previously recorded
                     threats against Germany by Indian extremists, and that
                     the whole scenario seems rather implausible.

                     On the other hand, the FBI information is uncommonly
                     concrete. In addition to the names of the suspects, it
                     also provides information about the exact day on which
                     they are supposed to arrive in the United Arab Emirates.
                     Moreover, Ibrahim is believed to be one of the men
                     behind the terror attacks in Mumbai. If he really is
                     involved, that alone would be reason enough for worry.

                     Abnormal Circumstances

                     Under normal circumstances, a message of this kind from
                     the United States would no doubt be cause for
                     serious-minded scrutiny, but it would not be a cause for
                     alarm. For example, the BKA would go through all recent
                     visa applications, and federal police officers would
                     take a closer look at all the people entering Germany
                     from Arab states. And the intelligence services would
                     make the rounds to see if any of its partners had any
                     helpful information on the matter.

                     Indeed, under normal circumstances, there are always a
                     lot of these communiques, most of which turn out to be
                     false alarms. But these are no normal circumstances.
                     Germany is in a state of emergency. Other countries,
                     such as the United States, employ a system of official
                     warning levels based on color codes that change -- from
                     yellow to orange, for example -- when the danger level
                     is thought to increase. But, in Germany, the interior
                     minister is the barometer: He consults with experts --
                     and then it is he who must call the shots.

                     For the minister, a situation like this presents a
                     dilemma. If he remains silent and something happens,
                     he's a failure. If he makes loud warning and nothing
                     happens, he's just a rabble-rouser trying to push
                     through controversial tougher security laws. And, of
                     course, the public never thanks you if everyday life
                     continues in a normal, peaceful way.

                     Absolute Security Remains a Pipe Dream

                     When de Maiziere became Germany's interior minister, he
                     had planned to lead the ministry in a level-headed way.
                     For example, he prefers to use phrases such as "internal
                     calm" rather than "internal security." And it was only
                     six weeks ago that he uttered the sentence: "There's no
                     cause for alarm." But, since then, the chorus of warning
                     voices has only ballooned in size.

                     This change in course is the combined result of
                     everything that happened beforehand. It might very well
                     turn out that the alleged Indian terror squad stays home
                     and that the raid on the Reichstag never happens. But
                     what will remain is a well-founded supposition that
                     there is a critical mass of terrorists in the border
                     region between Afghanistan and Pakistan that is thinking
                     about launching attacks in Europe -- and certainly in
                     Germany, as well.

                     Raw Nerves

                     Given such circumstances, there is a major sense of
                     alarm among German officials. Last Thursday, just a day
                     after de Maiziere's shocking press conference, the BKA
                     issued a press release "in connection with the current
                     high-risk situation." It reported that a piece of
                     suspicious luggage had been discovered a day earlier in
                     Windhoek, the capital of Namibia, before being loaded
                     onto a plane bound for Germany. The laptop bag contained
                     batteries, wires, a detonator and a clock -- in other
                     words, all the ingredients you need for a potential
                     airborne catastrophe.

                     It sounded as if another terror plot had been foiled.
                     Had there been a plan to blow up Air Berlin Flight 7377
                     en route to Munich? And had the authorities, yet again,
                     discovered an explosive device at the last minute? In
                     the end, all the worry was unfounded. As it turned out,
                     the piece of luggage was a test device built by a
                     company that designs "real test" suitcases to be used to
                     test security measures. It remains unclear who checked
                     the bag in. But the fact that the BKA was so quick to go
                     into alarm mode -- and publicly so -- has been a
                     communications debacle.

                     Of course, these days, nobody wants to be the one that
                     wasn't sufficiently circumspect, the one who took too
                     long to speak up. No one wants a replay of situations
                     like the one from the beginning of November, when de
                     Maiziere didn't know for hours whether the package that
                     had arrived at the Chancellery contained actual
                     explosives or was just a false alarm. Now, the threshold
                     for sounding the alarm is already much lower.

                     Bonded by Fear

                     Of course, you can never be too sure. Over the last 12
                     months, a series of attacks concocted in the
                     Afghan-Pakistani border region have been foiled in the
                     West. For example, in May, a car bomb set in New York's
                     Times Square by a man with ties to the Pakistani Taliban
                     failed to properly detonate. In Copenhagen, al-Qaida had
                     made plans to storm the offices of the Jyllands-Posten
                     newspaper as revenge for its 2005 publishing of
                     caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad. In October 2009,
                     David Headley, an American citizen with Pakistani roots,
                     was arrested after having already visited the
                     newspaper's offices in order to scout them out before
                     the planned attack. Other targets reportedly included
                     the subway systems of New York City and Washington.

                     On the other hand, absolute security is a pipe dream.
                     For example, British authorities had even conducted
                     rehearsals for how to respond to possible attacks. But,
                     even so, when attacks claiming 56 lives (including those
                     of four attackers) did strike London, on July 7, 2005,
                     they were unable to prevent them. Likewise, US
                     intelligence services had warned India a number of times
                     that terrorists were planning attacks in Mumbai.

                     The new situation in Germany has at least had one
                     positive side effect: For the time being, the
                     traditionally quarrelsome interior ministers from both
                     the state and the federal levels have refrained from
                     their usual bickering. Following informal talks held
                     last Thursday in Hamburg, Minister Bruch of
                     Rhineland-Palatinate noted that he had "never
                     experienced such harmony within this group" that has
                     apparently been bonded together by their shared fear.

                     Translated from the German by Josh Ward

                   --

                   Sean Noonan

                   Tactical Analyst

                   Office: +1 512-279-9479

                   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

                   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

                   www.stratfor.com

                 --

                 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

                 Marko Papic

                 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

                 STRATFOR

                 700 Lavaca Street - 900

                 Austin, Texas

                 78701 USA

                 P: + 1-512-744-4094

                 marko.papic@stratfor.com

               --

               Sean Noonan

               Tactical Analyst

               Office: +1 512-279-9479

               Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

               Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

               www.stratfor.com

             --

             - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

             Marko Papic

             Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

             STRATFOR

             700 Lavaca Street - 900

             Austin, Texas

             78701 USA

             P: + 1-512-744-4094

             marko.papic@stratfor.com

           --

           - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

           Marko Papic

           Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

           STRATFOR

           700 Lavaca Street - 900

           Austin, Texas

           78701 USA

           P: + 1-512-744-4094

           marko.papic@stratfor.com

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

 --
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX
</description>
    <date>2010-11-22 18:53:25</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2007872_re-ct-discussion-germany-ct-the-story-behind-germany-s.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
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      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2007893</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror
 Threat
</title>
    <description>   including Eurasia on this one. 

   Where else do germans get weapons?
   On 11/22/10 1:13 PM, Ben West wrote:

     Interesting parts I think are facts that balkan criminals were
     implicated in smuggilng weapons and that Dawood Ibrahim was also
     implicated. Lots of shady stuff comes out of the Balkans, so getting
     weapons to Germany from there would be no easy task.

     Also, I'm not sure what role Dawood would play in this scenario.
     Remember Indian officials blamed him for working with naxalites a few
     months back but didn't offer much evidence. He's an all around south
     asian bogeyman - any reference to him sends a clear message that
     somebody is up to no good.

     On 11/22/2010 1:01 PM, Jaclyn Blumenfeld wrote:

       Here are some of the thoughts and inconsistencies I found - I had
       summarized the der spiegel to pick out the bits I found important and
       added some info from other OS articles in blue.

       -Call from abroad (likely Pakistan) from "Nova" a terrorist wanting to
       surrender and return to his family in Germany
       -now working with German Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) and was
       reason behind threat increase on Wednesday, so far three calls have
       taken place between "Nova" and BKA
       -warned of small group attacking Reichstag on Monday and security has
       since been increased, authorities are secretly monitoring
       communications, conducting surveillance operations and launching
       undercover investigations.
       According to "NOVA":
       -AQ and associate groups (Pakistan's Islamic Jihad Group) planning
       together in Pakistan for attack(s) in Germany.
       -One idea was to remotely detonate a bomb using a mobile phone.
       Another called for a small group of terrorists to storm the Reichstag
       with guns blazing, take hostages and end everything in one calamitous
       bloodbath.
       -Plan called for the terrorists to procure the submachine guns,
       automatic rifles, explosives and whatever else they would need in the
       Balkans.
       -He said that two men had already traveled to Germany six to eight
       weeks earlier, adding that one had the nom de guerre of "Abu Mohammed"
       and that the other one was a German of Turkish origin
       -Both apparently had roots in the Greater Berlin metropolitan area,
       were currently unemployed and living off of welfare payments and had
       immersed themselves in the anonymity provided by a major city -- until
       the time should come for their activation.
       -Four others involved were waiting to travel to Germany at training
       camps in Pakistan - including a German, a Turk, a North African and
       another jihadist of unknown identity
       -Attack slated for February or March (if German intel had this
       knowledge why would they close the Reichstag today? are they sending a
       statement to AQ and affiliate group that they are aware and ahead of
       the planning?)

       According to FBI (which was recieved shortly before the call from
       "Nova" (there are some inconsistencies between the intelligence)
       - FBI included warnings about the obscure Indian group "Saif" which
       although Shiite had allegedly made pact with AQ and sent five men to
       Pakistan for training - what the connection to the Germany plot not
       specified - the 6 members described in the Reichstag plot were
       described by caller as various nationalities - none Indian)
       -FBI also shared that two members with visas allowing them to travel
       freely in EU schengen zone were already enroute to Germany and would
       enter via UAE on Nov 22  (compared to caller saying that two had
       already entered two weeks prior - time gap - so maybe there are four
       now in Germany unless FBI intel was outdated and the men came earlier
       - or caller was not accurate?)
       -FBI warnings claim the two in Germany were dispatched by Dawood
       Ibrahim Kaskar, an Indian organised crime baron linked to al-Qaeda
       based out of Karachi (this seems out of place - two mentions by the
       FBI of an Indian connection)
       -One of the men is supposedly named "Khan" (versus caller's info he
       was named Abu Muhammed and the second guy was of Turkish descent -
       Khan is not Turkish, Khan and Abu Muhammed could be the same guy
       though)

       Ben West wrote:

         Europeans have still found a way to blame Americans for warnings in
         the past.

         And yes, something very well could be in the works, but given the
         fact that jihadists constantly want to attack the west, is it really
         at all significant that something is in the works?

         I think we'd seen past plots with travel plans... I'd have to look
         harder to get specifics, but I don't think that's all that novel.

         Agree that the security officials are in a catch-22 situation.

         On 11/22/2010 11:43 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           There is a notable difference here.  And that is the German
           warning issued last week.  It was based on their own intelligence
           not American intelligence--so no blaming americans this time. 
           Yes, it's true that they don't have the capability to attack the
           Reichstag, and theat the attack is not imminent, as I pointed
           out.  But on the other hand, like with cargo parcels, it doesn't
           mean that something is not in the works.  Have we ever seen
           information this specific before on the individuals and their
           travel plans? 

           This is the conundrum of warning intelligence,  when the warning
           is given (just to policymakers, or to the public), measures are
           taken that prevent it.  It then comes the boy-who-cried-wolf, even
           if the warning was originally accurate. 

           Not to mention, given what happened with the last double agent to
           become public (Khost), it will be interesting to follow this one. 
           On 11/22/10 11:33 AM, Ben West wrote:

             I agree that the spiegel article was good - but this is the kind
             of thing we've seen over and over again in Europe. Source from
             durkastan says that aq is going to target Europe and kill lots
             of people and that attackers are en route. Everyone gets freaked
             out. Nothing significant happens. Europe blames US of scare
             mongering.

             Certainly islamists have europe in their cross-hairs, but if an
             attack is going to happen, it's not going be preceded by this
             kind of publicity.

             Also, attacking the reichstag? I mean, it's possible to ATTACK
             it, but they've got a pretty heavy security presence there that
             would prevent a hostage situation. I was there a few years ago.
             The public entryway is confined to one doorway with a heavy
             guard presence, metal detectors, x-ray machines, etc. If
             anything, an attack could kill lots of tourists lined up
             outside, but it would take a very serious force to be able to
             gain entrance to the reichstag and an even more well trained
             force to actually hold hostages. This sounds like a pipe-dream
             to me.

             On 11/22/2010 11:04 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

               thoughts?

               On 11/22/10 11:00 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

                 It is up to you and CT how you approach this. On the
                 short-term, this looks like something you can handle without
                 me. If you want to dabble in the more long-term view of what
                 is going on here, I would love to help.

                 On 11/22/10 10:58 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

                   In the more long-term, I think an analysis of the German
                   intelligence agencies would be good too. They have been
                   pretty decimated by the Cold War and by all the problems
                   associated with running an intelligence agency in a
                   post-Gestapo country. If Germany is ever going to become a
                   world power again, however, they would need to overcome
                   these deamons as well. That is sort of the last straw for
                   Germany, the one that is going to be most sensitive to
                   overcome. But perhaps this case may illustrate how they
                   are already overcoming these issues.

                   On 11/22/10 10:50 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                     Main problem is that Der Spiegel is just that good,
                     they've at least touched on most of what I would want to
                     say about it.  The main thing here is how the politics
                     of a terror threat/alert coincide with the reality of
                     the threat itself. 

                     We saw that Germany was fairly relaxed bout the earlier
                     threat in Europe released by the US.  I'm not sure if
                     that was the same as the info that the FBI passed over
                     about this shia group, Saif (I don't know anything about
                     them).  But something changed, as we noted last week in
                     their interpretation.  That seems to go down to this
                     virtual walk-in.  The one thing I was left confused
                     about is whether BKA had ever been in contact with this
                     source before.  It sounds like he cold called them. 
                     It's common knowledge that walk-ins, rather than
                     recruits, are nearly always the best sources.  But at
                     the same time, they are very suspicious as double
                     agents.  If this was a US source they would be freaking
                     the fuck out after having Al-Balawi turn on them.  The
                     germans seem to have cooler heads, but they will be
                     working 24/7 to verify the source (let me make another
                     plug for John Lecarre's A Most Wanted Man here, most of
                     his career was in Germany). 

                     They've clearly got enough corroborating information
                     that they consider this a real threat.  But politically
                     they are faced with the universal 'damned if you do,
                     damned if you don't' alert problem.  If the Interior
                     ministry doesn't say something, they will be liable if
                     an attack occurs.  Look at the constant press over
                     information on the warning intelligence for Mumbai.  As
                     we've said before, simply issuing the warning may help
                     to deter the attackers. 

                     The real important bit here, is that it seems the
                     germans have fairly good intelligence.  While this
                     attack is still not happening tomorrow, they have a lot
                     of details about what might be in the works, rather than
                     a single-source intercept that indicates some vague
                     threat.  It seems they've increased security pretty well
                     at the Bundestag, and want to add to the presence at any
                     possible target.  This is where we seem them scrambling,
                     and where their intelligence holes are. 

                     The task now for the germans is to verify this source. 
                     Maybe even pick him up and put him on ice somewhere
                     (Fred/Stick?), not in GErmany but in
                     Pakistan/Afghanistan.  That will require some
                     cooperation with either/both the Americans and
                     Pakistanis.  They also need to verify all the bio
                     information they have on these 4-6 guys trying to get
                     into germany and watch travelers very carefully.  The
                     germans seem to be very good at surveilling these
                     threats within Germany, so their best luck may come when
                     one of the guys overseas contacts a local already under
                     surveillance. 

                     At minimum, this could be a pretty interesting tearline
                     this week.  Both the walk-in issues and the CIA/FBI
                     liaison conflicts that I havne't gotten into here. 
                     On 11/22/10 10:34 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

                       Any thoughts on where you guys are thinking of going
                       with this?

                       Der Spiegel article is indeed interesting.

                       On 11/22/10 9:28 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                         Great report from Der Spiegel (thanks Mikey).  I
                         suggest anyone interested to read the whole thing. 
                         They ask the right questions, and while not as much
                         detail as I hoped, give us a much better
                         understanding on the threat in Germany. 

                         The BKA (germany's FBI) must be extremely busy
                         verifying the details of this virtual walk-in.  It
                         obviously caused the germans to shit their pants. 
                         But the real questions are buried in the
                         article---how real was this plot, how real is the
                         source, is the source just trying to get back to the
                         land of brezeln and bier? Trying to double-cross
                         them somehow?

                         Also note the tip off from the FBI (cue fred), not
                         the usual CIA liaison with BND. 

                         For Eurasia, there's a lot in here on the internal
                         politics of the interior minister position, and the
                         relation between state and federal government. 

                         On 11/22/10 8:55 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

                           -------- Original Message --------

                            Subject: [OS] GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind         
                                     Germany's Terror Threat                  
                               Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 08:38:21 -0600          
                               From: Graham Smith &lt;graham.smith@stratfor.com&gt; 
                           Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;            
                                 To: os@stratfor.com                          

                            11/22/2010 11:38 AM
                           Fears of a Mumbai Redux
                           The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat

                           http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,730377,00.html
                           By Matthias Bartsch, Yassin Musharbash and Holger
                           Stark

                           Germany is currently in a state of high alert.
                           Security officials are warning that they have
                           concrete information pointing to a possible terror
                           attack on the federal parliament building in
                           Berlin, a massively popular tourist attraction.
                           The days of Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere's
                           reserved stances in dealing with such warnings
                           appear to be over.

                           The call came from abroad, and the man speaking
                           hurriedly on the other end of the line sounded as
                           if he feared for his life. He wanted out, he told
                           the officers of the German Federal Criminal Police
                           Office (BKA) -- out of the terrorist scene. He
                           wanted to come back to Germany, back to his
                           family. Then he asked if German officials could
                           help him.

                           Right now, they're trying to do just that. The BKA
                           is pursuing the case under the codename "Nova."
                           The apparently remorseful man could be an
                           important possible whistleblower from a dangerous
                           region of the globe. In fact, he is also the most
                           recent reason why German Interior Minister Thomas
                           de Maiziere put the entire country in a state of
                           fright on Wednesday.

                           During a hastily called press conference that day,
                           de Maiziere stated that Germany faced the threat
                           of terrorist attacks that might be launched
                           against the country at some point in November. As
                           he put it, Germany is "presently dealing with a
                           new situation."
                           Just two days earlier, the source had called for
                           the third time in just a short period and provided
                           more information. He told officials that a small
                           group of terrorists wanted to conduct a raid on
                           the Reichstag building in Berlin, which houses the
                           federal parliament, and that that was only one of
                           the targets included in their attack plans.

                           Germany on High Alert

                           Since then, Germany has been in a state of high
                           alert. The Reichstag is surrounded with barricades
                           and its popular cupola tourist attraction
                           temporarily closed to visitors. Police armed with
                           submachine guns are patrolling major railway
                           stations and airports. And vacations have been
                           called off for officials at the country's security
                           agencies. Wherever they have cause for doing so,
                           the authorities are secretly monitoring
                           communications, conducting surveillance operations
                           and launching undercover investigations. At the
                           moment, investigators seem to be at a loss; their
                           modus operandi: "We'll prod the shrubs and see if
                           we can flush out any birds."

                           "There is cause for worry, but no cause for
                           hysteria," de Maiziere assured his listeners. But
                           while he has never been much of an agitator, his
                           colleagues at the state level have described the
                           situation in much more drastic terms. Uwe
                           Schu:nemann, for example, who has been the
                           interior minister of the northwestern state of
                           Lower Saxony since 2003, stated that he had "never
                           experienced a heightened security situation like
                           this one." And Berlin Senator for the Interior
                           Ehrhart Ko:rting, whose position is tantamount to
                           that of a government minister in the city-state,
                           has already even gone so far as to call on the
                           inhabitants of the German capital city to report
                           suspicious-looking individuals of Arab origin to
                           the police. "If you suddenly see three somewhat
                           strange-looking men who are new to your
                           neighborhood, who hide their faces and who only
                           speak Arabic," Ko:rting said, "you should report
                           them to the authorities."

                           Under heightened pressure, officials in Germany's
                           16 federal states are now checking to see when and
                           where major events are scheduled to take place
                           this coming week within their boundaries. And
                           nothing suggested as a possible target is being
                           discounted, no matter how unlikely. For example,
                           officials in Rhineland-Palatinate warned the
                           state's interior minister, Karl Peter Burch, that
                           there was always a lot going on at IKEA stores on
                           Saturdays.[WTF]

                           Serenity, Scaremongering and Strategy

                           Since last week, German politicians at both the
                           state and federal levels have once again had to
                           figure out how they will handle themselves when
                           making warnings about terrorist attacks. They have
                           had to come up with a language that can
                           simultaneously convey both an alert and a sense of
                           calm.

                           This is no easy task. For one thing, this isn't
                           the first time this has happened. In September
                           2009, for example, right before federal elections
                           were held, there were concrete threats that
                           resulted in a heightened security situation. But,
                           in the end, nothing happened. This time around,
                           people are wondering whether they are on the
                           precipice of an emergency or whether these are
                           once again empty threats.

                           Still, one thing is certain: For the time being,
                           Germany has become a different country -- more
                           nervous, more anxious, more agitated. And
                           Germany's domestic security policies are being put
                           to the test.

                           When Interior Minister de Maiziere assumed his
                           office in October 2009 in conservative Chancellor
                           Angela Merkel's government, he aimed to cool down
                           the heated sense of alarm regularly fanned out by
                           his predecessors. What's more, the man who had
                           served as Merkel's chief of staff in Chancellery
                           until being moved to the role of interior minister
                           in her new government, was given the task of
                           nurturing a more relaxed relationship between her
                           party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and
                           its new coalition partner, the business-friendly
                           Free Democratic Party (FDP). In particular, it was
                           his job to not draw out the long-standing conflict
                           over domestic security policies with the Justice
                           Ministry, which has been led since the 2009
                           election by Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, a
                           member of the FDP. Indeed, Merkel feared that the
                           quarrelsome FDP might try to capitalize on the
                           issue to win over more voters, so she assigned de
                           Maiziere to prevent that from happening.

                           In fact, the plan was to repeat the same strategy
                           that the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the
                           Christian Social Union (CSU), had used when they
                           were in the so-called "grand coalition" with the
                           center-left Social Democratic Party, between 2005
                           and 2009. At the time, they made a point of
                           undermining the SPD by championing what had
                           traditionally been the latter party's issues.

                           A Game-Changer

                           But now the game plan has changed. This November
                           will drastically alter de Maiziere's understanding
                           of his role in office. If he tries to return
                           things to their previous state of calm, he's going
                           to have a very tough time. In fact, it's much more
                           likely that he will be a completely different
                           interior minister.

                           For a while now, de Maiziere's softer stance has
                           prompted opposition by politicians on the right
                           involved with domestic security issues. But they
                           are now calling louder than ever for a tougher
                           course to be followed. Merkel is also adjusting to
                           the new situation and is reportedly happy with the
                           way de Maiziere handled himself last week.
                           Likewise, no one seems to have voiced any
                           criticism last Thursday evening during a meeting
                           of the Coalition Committee, a regular gathering of
                           the parties that are part of the government.

                           The almost complete lack of protest has a lot to
                           do with where the alarming information is coming
                           from. In fact, information regarding the
                           supposedly imminent attacks has come from two
                           independent sources. Shortly before receiving the
                           telephone call about the planned attacks, BKA
                           officials had received a cable from their American
                           counterparts at the FBI, America's federal police
                           force, warning of possible attacks.

                           Still, what truth is there in these
                           "security-related" pieces of information coming
                           from both domestic and foreign sources? And, given
                           all the discrepancies in the warning messages,
                           just how much do they deserve to be trusted?
                           Indeed, even among security officials themselves,
                           there is some doubt about how legitimate these
                           statements are -- and about just how acute the
                           danger threatening Germany really is.

                           An Attack Modelled after Mumbai[plot details in
                           this section]
                           What the caller reported was undeniably alarming.
                           According to him, al-Qaida and associated groups
                           based in Pakistan were making joint preparations
                           for an attack in Germany. One idea was to remotely
                           detonate a bomb using a mobile phone. Another
                           called for a small group of terrorists to storm
                           the Reichstag with guns blazing, take hostages and
                           end everything in one calamitous bloodbath.
                           Indeed, BKA officials learned that the latter plan
                           had been modeled on the storming of luxury hotels
                           in Mumbai, the Indian capital, almost exactly two
                           years ago, in a massacre that left 175 people
                           dead.

                           According to the caller, the plan called for the
                           terrorists to procure the submachine guns,
                           automatic rifles, explosives and whatever else
                           they would need to storm Germany's parliament
                           building in the Balkans. He said that two men had
                           already traveled to Germany six to eight weeks
                           earlier, adding that one had the nom de guerre of
                           "Abu Mohammed" and that the other one was a German
                           of Turkish origin. Both apparently had roots in
                           the Greater Berlin metropolitan area, were
                           currently unemployed and living off of welfare
                           payments and had immersed themselves in the
                           anonymity provided by a major city -- until the
                           time should come for their activation.

                           Likewise, there were allegedly four other
                           volunteers -- including a German, a Turk, a North
                           African and another jihadist of unknown identity
                           -- in the training camps run by al-Qaida and
                           related groups waiting for the signal to travel to
                           Germany. And, according to the telephone source,
                           al-Qaida's plan was to attack in February or
                           March.
                           The only question now relates to just how credible
                           the caller's statements are. He is an insider who
                           joined up with armed groups several months ago and
                           has earned a reputation as a fanatic fighter.
                           But could it be that he is only trying to tell
                           German officials the juiciest things possible in
                           order to raise his own market value and thereby
                           prompt them to extract him from the terror scene?
                           Or could it be that al-Qaida is even planning a
                           second spectacular coup like the one in December
                           2009, when the Americans allowed a supposedly
                           top-level turncoat onto an American military base
                           without any sort of pat-down, who went on to
                           detonate his explosive vest and blow seven CIA
                           officials to bits?

                           A Strange Message

                           A clear picture has yet to emerge. And one reason
                           for this is also the fact that it was only two
                           weeks ago that the FBI first decided to share
                           information about another possible attack with
                           German officials.

                           In this case, even the way contact was made was
                           unusual. Under normal circumstances, liaisons from
                           the CIA station in Germany are the ones to
                           communicate American warnings to their German
                           counterparts. But, this time around, it was an
                           apparently particularly anxious FBI that chose to
                           directly notify the BKA.
                           The FBI told the Germans about an obscure Indian
                           group called "Saif," or "sword." Despite being a
                           Shiite group, it had allegedly made a pact with
                           al-Qaida, a Sunni organization, and sent five of
                           its men to the Pakistani province of Waziristan
                           for training. According to the FBI, two volunteers
                           -- who were already equipped with visas allowing
                           them to travel freely within the 25 European
                           countries belonging to the Schengen zone -- were
                           supposedly already en route to Germany and would
                           enter the United Arab Emirates on Monday, Nov. 22.
                           There, they would allegedly be provided with new
                           travel documents before traveling on to Germany.
                           One of the men is supposedly named "Khan," which
                           is about as common in that part of the world as
                           "Smith" is in English-speaking countries. And no
                           firm conclusion had been made about their
                           nationalities.

                           The FBI agents even named the presumed masterminds
                           behind the operation. A certain Mushtaq Altaf
                           Bin-Khadri, who is in charge of finances and
                           training for "Saif," allegedly dispatched the
                           terrorist squad. But the FBI was not in a position
                           to comment on the targets of the two men in
                           Germany.

                           One name came up time and again in the communique,
                           and one that pricked the Germans' ears: Dawood
                           Ibrahim. The 54-year-old arms trader is "India's
                           most-wanted man." The US government has listed him
                           as a "global terrorist" and persuaded the United
                           Nations to place his name on a list of supporters
                           of terror. Ibrahim is rumored to be the head of
                           D-Company, a criminal syndicate named after
                           himself, and is believed to be in charge of
                           smuggling the suspected terrorists into Germany.

                           Both the FBI and the BKA are attaching a lot of
                           importance to the information in the FBI
                           communique. But the intelligence services of the
                           two countries -- the CIA in the United States and
                           the BND and Office for the Protection of the
                           Constitution in Germany, the country's foreign and
                           domestic intelligence agencies, respectively --
                           point to internal contradictions as reasons for
                           their skepticism. As they see it, for example, it
                           is highly unlikely that a Shiite group would team
                           up with Sunni terrorists, especially since a good
                           part of al-Qaida propaganda vilifies Shiites.
                           Other reasons for doubt include the facts that
                           none of the intelligence agencies was previously
                           familiar with an organization called "Saif," that
                           there have been no previously recorded threats
                           against Germany by Indian extremists, and that the
                           whole scenario seems rather implausible.

                           On the other hand, the FBI information is
                           uncommonly concrete. In addition to the names of
                           the suspects, it also provides information about
                           the exact day on which they are supposed to arrive
                           in the United Arab Emirates. Moreover, Ibrahim is
                           believed to be one of the men behind the terror
                           attacks in Mumbai. If he really is involved, that
                           alone would be reason enough for worry.

                           Abnormal Circumstances

                           Under normal circumstances, a message of this kind
                           from the United States would no doubt be cause for
                           serious-minded scrutiny, but it would not be a
                           cause for alarm. For example, the BKA would go
                           through all recent visa applications, and federal
                           police officers would take a closer look at all
                           the people entering Germany from Arab states. And
                           the intelligence services would make the rounds to
                           see if any of its partners had any helpful
                           information on the matter.

                           Indeed, under normal circumstances, there are
                           always a lot of these communiques, most of which
                           turn out to be false alarms. But these are no
                           normal circumstances. Germany is in a state of
                           emergency. Other countries, such as the United
                           States, employ a system of official warning levels
                           based on color codes that change -- from yellow to
                           orange, for example -- when the danger level is
                           thought to increase. But, in Germany, the interior
                           minister is the barometer: He consults with
                           experts -- and then it is he who must call the
                           shots.

                           For the minister, a situation like this presents a
                           dilemma. If he remains silent and something
                           happens, he's a failure. If he makes loud warning
                           and nothing happens, he's just a rabble-rouser
                           trying to push through controversial tougher
                           security laws. And, of course, the public never
                           thanks you if everyday life continues in a normal,
                           peaceful way.

                           Absolute Security Remains a Pipe Dream

                           When de Maiziere became Germany's interior
                           minister, he had planned to lead the ministry in a
                           level-headed way. For example, he prefers to use
                           phrases such as "internal calm" rather than
                           "internal security." And it was only six weeks ago
                           that he uttered the sentence: "There's no cause
                           for alarm." But, since then, the chorus of warning
                           voices has only ballooned in size.

                           This change in course is the combined result of
                           everything that happened beforehand. It might very
                           well turn out that the alleged Indian terror squad
                           stays home and that the raid on the Reichstag
                           never happens. But what will remain is a
                           well-founded supposition that there is a critical
                           mass of terrorists in the border region between
                           Afghanistan and Pakistan that is thinking about
                           launching attacks in Europe -- and certainly in
                           Germany, as well.

                           Raw Nerves

                           Given such circumstances, there is a major sense
                           of alarm among German officials. Last Thursday,
                           just a day after de Maiziere's shocking press
                           conference, the BKA issued a press release "in
                           connection with the current high-risk situation."
                           It reported that a piece of suspicious luggage had
                           been discovered a day earlier in Windhoek, the
                           capital of Namibia, before being loaded onto a
                           plane bound for Germany. The laptop bag contained
                           batteries, wires, a detonator and a clock -- in
                           other words, all the ingredients you need for a
                           potential airborne catastrophe.

                           It sounded as if another terror plot had been
                           foiled. Had there been a plan to blow up Air
                           Berlin Flight 7377 en route to Munich? And had the
                           authorities, yet again, discovered an explosive
                           device at the last minute? In the end, all the
                           worry was unfounded. As it turned out, the piece
                           of luggage was a test device built by a company
                           that designs "real test" suitcases to be used to
                           test security measures. It remains unclear who
                           checked the bag in. But the fact that the BKA was
                           so quick to go into alarm mode -- and publicly so
                           -- has been a communications debacle.

                           Of course, these days, nobody wants to be the one
                           that wasn't sufficiently circumspect, the one who
                           took too long to speak up. No one wants a replay
                           of situations like the one from the beginning of
                           November, when de Maiziere didn't know for hours
                           whether the package that had arrived at the
                           Chancellery contained actual explosives or was
                           just a false alarm. Now, the threshold for
                           sounding the alarm is already much lower.

                           Bonded by Fear

                           Of course, you can never be too sure. Over the
                           last 12 months, a series of attacks concocted in
                           the Afghan-Pakistani border region have been
                           foiled in the West. For example, in May, a car
                           bomb set in New York's Times Square by a man with
                           ties to the Pakistani Taliban failed to properly
                           detonate. In Copenhagen, al-Qaida had made plans
                           to storm the offices of the Jyllands-Posten
                           newspaper as revenge for its 2005 publishing of
                           caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad. In October
                           2009, David Headley, an American citizen with
                           Pakistani roots, was arrested after having already
                           visited the newspaper's offices in order to scout
                           them out before the planned attack. Other targets
                           reportedly included the subway systems of New York
                           City and Washington.

                           On the other hand, absolute security is a pipe
                           dream. For example, British authorities had even
                           conducted rehearsals for how to respond to
                           possible attacks. But, even so, when attacks
                           claiming 56 lives (including those of four
                           attackers) did strike London, on July 7, 2005,
                           they were unable to prevent them. Likewise, US
                           intelligence services had warned India a number of
                           times that terrorists were planning attacks in
                           Mumbai.

                           The new situation in Germany has at least had one
                           positive side effect: For the time being, the
                           traditionally quarrelsome interior ministers from
                           both the state and the federal levels have
                           refrained from their usual bickering. Following
                           informal talks held last Thursday in Hamburg,
                           Minister Bruch of Rhineland-Palatinate noted that
                           he had "never experienced such harmony within this
                           group" that has apparently been bonded together by
                           their shared fear.

                           Translated from the German by Josh Ward

                         --

                         Sean Noonan

                         Tactical Analyst

                         Office: +1 512-279-9479

                         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

                         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

                         www.stratfor.com

                       --

                       - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

                       Marko Papic

                       Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

                       STRATFOR

                       700 Lavaca Street - 900

                       Austin, Texas

                       78701 USA

                       P: + 1-512-744-4094

                       marko.papic@stratfor.com

                     --

                     Sean Noonan

                     Tactical Analyst

                     Office: +1 512-279-9479

                     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

                     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

                     www.stratfor.com

                   --

                   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

                   Marko Papic

                   Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

                   STRATFOR

                   700 Lavaca Street - 900

                   Austin, Texas

                   78701 USA

                   P: + 1-512-744-4094

                   marko.papic@stratfor.com

                 --

                 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

                 Marko Papic

                 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

                 STRATFOR

                 700 Lavaca Street - 900

                 Austin, Texas

                 78701 USA

                 P: + 1-512-744-4094

                 marko.papic@stratfor.com

               --

               Sean Noonan

               Tactical Analyst

               Office: +1 512-279-9479

               Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

               Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

               www.stratfor.com

 --
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX
      

           --

           Sean Noonan

           Tactical Analyst

           Office: +1 512-279-9479

           Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

           Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

           www.stratfor.com

 --
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX
  

 --
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-22 20:16:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2007893_re-ct-discussion-germany-ct-the-story-behind-germany-s.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2009673</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
   height.

   On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

     Was the shooter a Libyan?

     On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:25:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2009673_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>hoor.jangda@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2009805</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111
</title>
    <description>   this dude really gives the impression that Moscow calls the shots in Kiev

   so basically, Med gets pissed b/c Timo is blowing Putin and not him, so he
   whines to Putin and says drop the B and get behind Yanu like me. Putin
   says fine, Yanu gets excited and oversteps his boundaries, and now Putin
   is like fix this shit Med and Med is like okay, but we dont know what Med
   is actually gonna do to slap Yanu around

   so what's the couterargument to this? Does Russia really have this much
   influence over the situation?  this is something we need to address in
   ukraine reassessment

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marc Lanthemann" &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

   CODE: UA111
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Kiev
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch.
   But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps
   this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to
   begin with.

    

   You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in
   power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew
   Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to
   solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be
   Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most
   easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got
   her in trouble and arrested.

    

   But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no
   respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev
   made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a
   deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if
   Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being
   the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU,
   military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension
   it had been pushing for.

    

   So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009,
   the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing
   to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of
   demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally.

    

   Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev
   to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing
   against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever
   will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-09-14 20:55:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2009805_re-alpha-insight-ukraine-moscow-kiev-spat-ua111-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2009991</id>
    <title>RE: [CT] UK Plot - Do we have the target list?
</title>
    <description>Well a BFB might work since they have reopened much of the area to traffic,
but that is big league stuff, and if you are sincerely planning such an
attack you don't look at a host of other targets.

  

-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
Sent: Monday, December 27, 2010 2:48 PM
To: scott stewart
Cc: 'Michael Wilson'; 'CT AOR'; 'Sean Noonan'; 'TACTICAL'
Subject: Re: [CT] UK Plot - Do we have the target list?

The only wave to attack the US Emb London is via an in bound aircraft or
shoulder fired rocket in to the bldg. 

The fascinating part to learn (in facts vice news) would be how 5 got
onto them in the first place. 

scott stewart wrote:
&gt;
&gt; This shows us that they were Kramer wannabe terrorists.
&gt;
&gt;  
&gt;
&gt;  
&gt;
&gt; *From:* Michael Wilson [mailto:michael.wilson@stratfor.com]
&gt; *Sent:* Monday, December 27, 2010 2:41 PM
&gt; *To:* CT AOR
&gt; *Cc:* Fred Burton; Sean Noonan; 'TACTICAL'
&gt; *Subject:* Re: [CT] UK Plot - Do we have the target list?
&gt;
&gt;  
&gt;
&gt; *US embassy in London was a target of UK suspects*
&gt;
http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/us-embassy-in-london-was-a-target-of-uk-s
uspects/
&gt; 12.27.10
&gt;
&gt; WASHINGTON, Dec 27 (Reuters) - The U.S. embassy in London was a target
&gt; of a group of men arrested last week in Britain and charged with
&gt; conspiracy to cause explosions and preparing acts of terrorism, the
&gt; U.S. State Department said on Monday.
&gt;
&gt; Twelve men were arrested on Dec. 20 in what British police said were
&gt; counter-terrorism raids essential to protect the public from the
&gt; threat of attack. [ID:nLDE6BQ08O]
&gt;
&gt; Three were later released without charges, leaving nine who appeared
&gt; in court on Monday to face the charges.
&gt;
&gt; Asked if he was aware of reports the suspects indicated that the U.S.
&gt; embassy in London was on their target list, State Department spokesman
&gt; Mark Toner told reporters: "I am aware and ... obviously our folks in
&gt; London are aware of this."
&gt;
&gt; In response to a follow-up question during a telephone briefing with
&gt; reporters, Toner said: "You asked me if we were aware that we were on
&gt; the targeting list and I confirmed that."
&gt;
&gt; The suspects were from London, the Welsh capital of Cardiff and the
&gt; central English city of Stoke.
&gt;
&gt; A British police statement said the men had conspired to cause
&gt; "explosions of a nature likely to endanger life or cause serious
&gt; injury to property".
&gt;
&gt; It added they had been downloading material from the Internet,
&gt; researching and discussing potential targets, carrying out
&gt; reconnaissance and "igniting and testing incendiary material".
&gt;
&gt; The police statement did not specify what the potential targets were.
&gt; (Editing by Mohammad Zargham)
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; On 12/27/10 11:36 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;
&gt; For example, you can input an image of a terrorist and search for the
&gt; suspect at other sites, if you suspect surveillance. 
&gt;  
&gt; License plate readers are also heavy inside London.   
&gt;  
&gt; Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;
&gt;     London Stock Exchange is protected by heavy surveillance coverages
&gt;
&gt;     (TrapWire) and predictive software. 
&gt;
&gt;      
&gt;
&gt;     Sean Noonan wrote:
&gt;
&gt;       
&gt;
&gt;         They haven't allowed the details to be released.  All I've seen is
the
&gt;
&gt;         London Stock Exchange and "The Guardian website has said shops,
banks
&gt;
&gt;         and "iconic targets" in London were on a list of sites for
bombing. "
&gt;
&gt;          
&gt;
&gt;         -shopping centers and gov't buildings
&gt;
&gt;          
&gt;
&gt;         On 12/27/10 10:56 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;
&gt;             
&gt;
&gt;             http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-12081828
&gt;
&gt;              
&gt;
&gt;             They are alleged to have done this by carrying out
reconnaissance,
&gt;
&gt;             agreeing potential targets, downloading and researching
materials and
&gt;
&gt;             igniting and testing incendiary material.
&gt;
&gt;                 
&gt;
&gt;                   
&gt;
&gt;         -- 
&gt;
&gt;          
&gt;
&gt;         Sean Noonan
&gt;
&gt;          
&gt;
&gt;         Tactical Analyst
&gt;
&gt;          
&gt;
&gt;         Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt;
&gt;          
&gt;
&gt;         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt;
&gt;          
&gt;
&gt;         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt;
&gt;          
&gt;
&gt;         www.stratfor.com &lt;http://www.stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;
&gt;          
&gt;
&gt;             
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; -- 
&gt; Michael Wilson
&gt; Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
&gt; Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
&gt; Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com &lt;mailto:michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;  
</description>
    <date>2010-12-27 20:53:08</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2009991_re-ct-uk-plot-do-we-have-the-target-list-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.wilson@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2012376</id>
    <title>Re: Tirana update
</title>
    <description>   I think this is worth being written up as a piece ahead of tomorrow's
   protests.

   Is it possible to publish this?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: burton@stratfor.com
   To: "Analysts" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;, "Tactical" &lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2011 1:36:04 PM
   Subject: Tirana update

   From TrapWire --

   Just in from a contact (Former senior law enforcement officer with direct
   access to Opposition party members).

    

   Tirana : 22 Jan 2011 (Situation at 1930 local)

    

   a**         Situation today calm, as Govt declared day of mourning for the
   "martyrs" (Berisha's words).

   a**         The Opposition has been hold-up all day today in Mayor Edi
   Rama's office discussing next steps. There is some reluctance on their
   part as to whether tomorrow's protest should proceed as planned. They have
   apparently received word that many protesters intend to come armed to
   protect themselves against the police.  Rama has commented privately he
   may lead the protest to try and keep them peaceful.

   a**         Despite this, the Opposition continues to insist they will not
   stop actions against the current regime until Berisha resigns. In
   response, Berisha has declared that "anyone touching an official
   government building will meet the same fate as the protestors yesterday."

   a**         Rumblings have started in other major cities throughout
   Albania re. sympathetic protests. Most notably Shkoder, Durres and
   Gjirokaster.

   a**         There are reports of a handful of arrests of senior police
   officials following yesterday's incident. Investigation is now underway as
   to who gave the order to fire upon the crowds.

   a**         Rumors continue to spread within the population that agents of
   the State Intelligence Service (SHISH) had infiltrated the crowds and
   provoked yesterday's violence. (Comment: No proof of this, but would not
   be the first time SHISH was used in this capacity).

   a**         Note: Great deal of fear and apprehension amongst the
   populace, particularly in Tirana. Most still have vivid memories of '90
   and '97. Average Albanian is still well armed following the ransacking of
   weapons depots in '97 and an escalation in violence is not unthinkable.

    

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 20:40:14</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2012376_re-tirana-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2013216</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Was the shooter a Libyan?

   On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:11:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2013216_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2013232</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Maybe, or he could be the Norwegian McVeigh.

   On 7/22/11 9:26 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     Mercenary
     Contract hit

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Hoor Jangda &lt;hoor.jangda@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:25:36 -0500 (CDT)
     To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
     the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
     height.

     On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

       Was the shooter a Libyan?

       On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:30:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2013232_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2014568</id>
    <title>Terrorist Surveillance Footage
</title>
    <description>Kudos to Mike Mooney for helping us get the footage.  

Attached is surveillance footage from TrapWire with the background relative
to the clip.  I would encourage you to watch for real terrorist surveillance
video.  

----------------------------------------------------

Fred: Once you have the clip, note the following:

 

.           Barot filmed in NY, NY, DC and London on at least 6-10 occasions
both before and after 9/11. (He was fully aware that our response to 9/11
was to simply erect Jersey Barriers and put more guns on the street looking
for the next attack -- not the surveillance. Thus his complete confidence
that even after 9/11 no one was looking for pre-attack surveillance).

.           The verbiage scrolling across the bottom of the screen is his.

.           You'll see him film CCTV cameras everywhere. His surveillance
notes back to AQ were as good as anything I ever produced for an op with the
Agency. (His plan for the attack on the Prudential building was genius).

.           Notice the focus of his filming: CCTV cameras; police cruisers;
first-responder vehicles; maps of Manhattan; NYSE entrance; nitrogen tanks
above the subway grates; and various Jewish centers.

.           Best part of the film: at the 1:18 mark he passes two security
guards near Wall Street. He's just finished filming a CCTV camera.starts
filming the guards, and one of them says "hey, how you doin'"  Brilliant.
(Not sure if this version has the audio on though).

.           At the end of the clip, you'll see him tilt the WTC sideways and
make the sound of an explosion. He knew already.

 

If a system like TrapWire been deployed at the various sites (including NJ
and DC), we would have caught this guy in the act. As it was, we alerted on
him after raiding a safehouse in Pakistan looking for another guy -- and
found Barot's notes on a hard-drive in that apartment. Pure luck.

 

Mike


The file is now uploaded and can be grabbed at:

https://files.me.com/mooney6023/xsv00c


--Mike
</description>
    <date>2011-02-15 22:01:38</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2014568_terrorist-surveillance-footage-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mooney@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>frank.ginac@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2018116</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror
 Threat
</title>
    <description>   I agree that the spiegel article was good - but this is the kind of thing
   we've seen over and over again in Europe. Source from durkastan says that
   aq is going to target Europe and kill lots of people and that attackers
   are en route. Everyone gets freaked out. Nothing significant happens.
   Europe blames US of scare mongering.

   Certainly islamists have europe in their cross-hairs, but if an attack is
   going to happen, it's not going be preceded by this kind of publicity.

   Also, attacking the reichstag? I mean, it's possible to ATTACK it, but
   they've got a pretty heavy security presence there that would prevent a
   hostage situation. I was there a few years ago. The public entryway is
   confined to one doorway with a heavy guard presence, metal detectors,
   x-ray machines, etc. If anything, an attack could kill lots of tourists
   lined up outside, but it would take a very serious force to be able to
   gain entrance to the reichstag and an even more well trained force to
   actually hold hostages. This sounds like a pipe-dream to me.

   On 11/22/2010 11:04 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     thoughts?

     On 11/22/10 11:00 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

       It is up to you and CT how you approach this. On the short-term, this
       looks like something you can handle without me. If you want to dabble
       in the more long-term view of what is going on here, I would love to
       help.

       On 11/22/10 10:58 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

         In the more long-term, I think an analysis of the German
         intelligence agencies would be good too. They have been pretty
         decimated by the Cold War and by all the problems associated with
         running an intelligence agency in a post-Gestapo country. If Germany
         is ever going to become a world power again, however, they would
         need to overcome these deamons as well. That is sort of the last
         straw for Germany, the one that is going to be most sensitive to
         overcome. But perhaps this case may illustrate how they are already
         overcoming these issues.

         On 11/22/10 10:50 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           Main problem is that Der Spiegel is just that good, they've at
           least touched on most of what I would want to say about it.  The
           main thing here is how the politics of a terror threat/alert
           coincide with the reality of the threat itself. 

           We saw that Germany was fairly relaxed bout the earlier threat in
           Europe released by the US.  I'm not sure if that was the same as
           the info that the FBI passed over about this shia group, Saif (I
           don't know anything about them).  But something changed, as we
           noted last week in their interpretation.  That seems to go down to
           this virtual walk-in.  The one thing I was left confused about is
           whether BKA had ever been in contact with this source before.  It
           sounds like he cold called them.  It's common knowledge that
           walk-ins, rather than recruits, are nearly always the best
           sources.  But at the same time, they are very suspicious as double
           agents.  If this was a US source they would be freaking the fuck
           out after having Al-Balawi turn on them.  The germans seem to have
           cooler heads, but they will be working 24/7 to verify the source
           (let me make another plug for John Lecarre's A Most Wanted Man
           here, most of his career was in Germany). 

           They've clearly got enough corroborating information that they
           consider this a real threat.  But politically they are faced with
           the universal 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' alert
           problem.  If the Interior ministry doesn't say something, they
           will be liable if an attack occurs.  Look at the constant press
           over information on the warning intelligence for Mumbai.  As we've
           said before, simply issuing the warning may help to deter the
           attackers. 

           The real important bit here, is that it seems the germans have
           fairly good intelligence.  While this attack is still not
           happening tomorrow, they have a lot of details about what might be
           in the works, rather than a single-source intercept that indicates
           some vague threat.  It seems they've increased security pretty
           well at the Bundestag, and want to add to the presence at any
           possible target.  This is where we seem them scrambling, and where
           their intelligence holes are. 

           The task now for the germans is to verify this source.  Maybe even
           pick him up and put him on ice somewhere (Fred/Stick?), not in
           GErmany but in Pakistan/Afghanistan.  That will require some
           cooperation with either/both the Americans and Pakistanis.  They
           also need to verify all the bio information they have on these 4-6
           guys trying to get into germany and watch travelers very
           carefully.  The germans seem to be very good at surveilling these
           threats within Germany, so their best luck may come when one of
           the guys overseas contacts a local already under surveillance. 

           At minimum, this could be a pretty interesting tearline this
           week.  Both the walk-in issues and the CIA/FBI liaison conflicts
           that I havne't gotten into here. 
           On 11/22/10 10:34 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

             Any thoughts on where you guys are thinking of going with this?

             Der Spiegel article is indeed interesting.

             On 11/22/10 9:28 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

               Great report from Der Spiegel (thanks Mikey).  I suggest
               anyone interested to read the whole thing.  They ask the right
               questions, and while not as much detail as I hoped, give us a
               much better understanding on the threat in Germany. 

               The BKA (germany's FBI) must be extremely busy verifying the
               details of this virtual walk-in.  It obviously caused the
               germans to shit their pants.  But the real questions are
               buried in the article---how real was this plot, how real is
               the source, is the source just trying to get back to the land
               of brezeln and bier? Trying to double-cross them somehow?

               Also note the tip off from the FBI (cue fred), not the usual
               CIA liaison with BND. 

               For Eurasia, there's a lot in here on the internal politics of
               the interior minister position, and the relation between state
               and federal government. 

               On 11/22/10 8:55 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

                 -------- Original Message --------

                  Subject: [OS] GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror  
                           Threat                                             
                     Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 08:38:21 -0600                    
                     From: Graham Smith &lt;graham.smith@stratfor.com&gt;           
                 Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                      
                       To: os@stratfor.com                                    

                  11/22/2010 11:38 AM
                 Fears of a Mumbai Redux
                 The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat

                 http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,730377,00.html
                 By Matthias Bartsch, Yassin Musharbash and Holger Stark

                 Germany is currently in a state of high alert. Security
                 officials are warning that they have concrete information
                 pointing to a possible terror attack on the federal
                 parliament building in Berlin, a massively popular tourist
                 attraction. The days of Interior Minister Thomas de
                 Maiziere's reserved stances in dealing with such warnings
                 appear to be over.

                 The call came from abroad, and the man speaking hurriedly on
                 the other end of the line sounded as if he feared for his
                 life. He wanted out, he told the officers of the German
                 Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) -- out of the terrorist
                 scene. He wanted to come back to Germany, back to his
                 family. Then he asked if German officials could help him.

                 Right now, they're trying to do just that. The BKA is
                 pursuing the case under the codename "Nova." The apparently
                 remorseful man could be an important possible whistleblower
                 from a dangerous region of the globe. In fact, he is also
                 the most recent reason why German Interior Minister Thomas
                 de Maiziere put the entire country in a state of fright on
                 Wednesday.

                 During a hastily called press conference that day, de
                 Maiziere stated that Germany faced the threat of terrorist
                 attacks that might be launched against the country at some
                 point in November. As he put it, Germany is "presently
                 dealing with a new situation."
                 Just two days earlier, the source had called for the third
                 time in just a short period and provided more information.
                 He told officials that a small group of terrorists wanted to
                 conduct a raid on the Reichstag building in Berlin, which
                 houses the federal parliament, and that that was only one of
                 the targets included in their attack plans.

                 Germany on High Alert

                 Since then, Germany has been in a state of high alert. The
                 Reichstag is surrounded with barricades and its popular
                 cupola tourist attraction temporarily closed to visitors.
                 Police armed with submachine guns are patrolling major
                 railway stations and airports. And vacations have been
                 called off for officials at the country's security agencies.
                 Wherever they have cause for doing so, the authorities are
                 secretly monitoring communications, conducting surveillance
                 operations and launching undercover investigations. At the
                 moment, investigators seem to be at a loss; their modus
                 operandi: "We'll prod the shrubs and see if we can flush out
                 any birds."

                 "There is cause for worry, but no cause for hysteria," de
                 Maiziere assured his listeners. But while he has never been
                 much of an agitator, his colleagues at the state level have
                 described the situation in much more drastic terms. Uwe
                 Schu:nemann, for example, who has been the interior minister
                 of the northwestern state of Lower Saxony since 2003, stated
                 that he had "never experienced a heightened security
                 situation like this one." And Berlin Senator for the
                 Interior Ehrhart Ko:rting, whose position is tantamount to
                 that of a government minister in the city-state, has already
                 even gone so far as to call on the inhabitants of the German
                 capital city to report suspicious-looking individuals of
                 Arab origin to the police. "If you suddenly see three
                 somewhat strange-looking men who are new to your
                 neighborhood, who hide their faces and who only speak
                 Arabic," Ko:rting said, "you should report them to the
                 authorities."

                 Under heightened pressure, officials in Germany's 16 federal
                 states are now checking to see when and where major events
                 are scheduled to take place this coming week within their
                 boundaries. And nothing suggested as a possible target is
                 being discounted, no matter how unlikely. For example,
                 officials in Rhineland-Palatinate warned the state's
                 interior minister, Karl Peter Burch, that there was always a
                 lot going on at IKEA stores on Saturdays.[WTF]

                 Serenity, Scaremongering and Strategy

                 Since last week, German politicians at both the state and
                 federal levels have once again had to figure out how they
                 will handle themselves when making warnings about terrorist
                 attacks. They have had to come up with a language that can
                 simultaneously convey both an alert and a sense of calm.

                 This is no easy task. For one thing, this isn't the first
                 time this has happened. In September 2009, for example,
                 right before federal elections were held, there were
                 concrete threats that resulted in a heightened security
                 situation. But, in the end, nothing happened. This time
                 around, people are wondering whether they are on the
                 precipice of an emergency or whether these are once again
                 empty threats.

                 Still, one thing is certain: For the time being, Germany has
                 become a different country -- more nervous, more anxious,
                 more agitated. And Germany's domestic security policies are
                 being put to the test.

                 When Interior Minister de Maiziere assumed his office in
                 October 2009 in conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel's
                 government, he aimed to cool down the heated sense of alarm
                 regularly fanned out by his predecessors. What's more, the
                 man who had served as Merkel's chief of staff in Chancellery
                 until being moved to the role of interior minister in her
                 new government, was given the task of nurturing a more
                 relaxed relationship between her party, the Christian
                 Democratic Union (CDU), and its new coalition partner, the
                 business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP). In
                 particular, it was his job to not draw out the long-standing
                 conflict over domestic security policies with the Justice
                 Ministry, which has been led since the 2009 election by
                 Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, a member of the FDP.
                 Indeed, Merkel feared that the quarrelsome FDP might try to
                 capitalize on the issue to win over more voters, so she
                 assigned de Maiziere to prevent that from happening.

                 In fact, the plan was to repeat the same strategy that the
                 CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social
                 Union (CSU), had used when they were in the so-called "grand
                 coalition" with the center-left Social Democratic Party,
                 between 2005 and 2009. At the time, they made a point of
                 undermining the SPD by championing what had traditionally
                 been the latter party's issues.

                 A Game-Changer

                 But now the game plan has changed. This November will
                 drastically alter de Maiziere's understanding of his role in
                 office. If he tries to return things to their previous state
                 of calm, he's going to have a very tough time. In fact, it's
                 much more likely that he will be a completely different
                 interior minister.

                 For a while now, de Maiziere's softer stance has prompted
                 opposition by politicians on the right involved with
                 domestic security issues. But they are now calling louder
                 than ever for a tougher course to be followed. Merkel is
                 also adjusting to the new situation and is reportedly happy
                 with the way de Maiziere handled himself last week.
                 Likewise, no one seems to have voiced any criticism last
                 Thursday evening during a meeting of the Coalition
                 Committee, a regular gathering of the parties that are part
                 of the government.

                 The almost complete lack of protest has a lot to do with
                 where the alarming information is coming from. In fact,
                 information regarding the supposedly imminent attacks has
                 come from two independent sources. Shortly before receiving
                 the telephone call about the planned attacks, BKA officials
                 had received a cable from their American counterparts at the
                 FBI, America's federal police force, warning of possible
                 attacks.

                 Still, what truth is there in these "security-related"
                 pieces of information coming from both domestic and foreign
                 sources? And, given all the discrepancies in the warning
                 messages, just how much do they deserve to be trusted?
                 Indeed, even among security officials themselves, there is
                 some doubt about how legitimate these statements are -- and
                 about just how acute the danger threatening Germany really
                 is.

                 An Attack Modelled after Mumbai[plot details in this
                 section]
                 What the caller reported was undeniably alarming. According
                 to him, al-Qaida and associated groups based in Pakistan
                 were making joint preparations for an attack in Germany. One
                 idea was to remotely detonate a bomb using a mobile phone.
                 Another called for a small group of terrorists to storm the
                 Reichstag with guns blazing, take hostages and end
                 everything in one calamitous bloodbath. Indeed, BKA
                 officials learned that the latter plan had been modeled on
                 the storming of luxury hotels in Mumbai, the Indian capital,
                 almost exactly two years ago, in a massacre that left 175
                 people dead.

                 According to the caller, the plan called for the terrorists
                 to procure the submachine guns, automatic rifles, explosives
                 and whatever else they would need to storm Germany's
                 parliament building in the Balkans. He said that two men had
                 already traveled to Germany six to eight weeks earlier,
                 adding that one had the nom de guerre of "Abu Mohammed" and
                 that the other one was a German of Turkish origin. Both
                 apparently had roots in the Greater Berlin metropolitan
                 area, were currently unemployed and living off of welfare
                 payments and had immersed themselves in the anonymity
                 provided by a major city -- until the time should come for
                 their activation.

                 Likewise, there were allegedly four other volunteers --
                 including a German, a Turk, a North African and another
                 jihadist of unknown identity -- in the training camps run by
                 al-Qaida and related groups waiting for the signal to travel
                 to Germany. And, according to the telephone source,
                 al-Qaida's plan was to attack in February or March.
                 The only question now relates to just how credible the
                 caller's statements are. He is an insider who joined up with
                 armed groups several months ago and has earned a reputation
                 as a fanatic fighter.
                 But could it be that he is only trying to tell German
                 officials the juiciest things possible in order to raise his
                 own market value and thereby prompt them to extract him from
                 the terror scene? Or could it be that al-Qaida is even
                 planning a second spectacular coup like the one in December
                 2009, when the Americans allowed a supposedly top-level
                 turncoat onto an American military base without any sort of
                 pat-down, who went on to detonate his explosive vest and
                 blow seven CIA officials to bits?

                 A Strange Message

                 A clear picture has yet to emerge. And one reason for this
                 is also the fact that it was only two weeks ago that the FBI
                 first decided to share information about another possible
                 attack with German officials.

                 In this case, even the way contact was made was unusual.
                 Under normal circumstances, liaisons from the CIA station in
                 Germany are the ones to communicate American warnings to
                 their German counterparts. But, this time around, it was an
                 apparently particularly anxious FBI that chose to directly
                 notify the BKA.
                 The FBI told the Germans about an obscure Indian group
                 called "Saif," or "sword." Despite being a Shiite group, it
                 had allegedly made a pact with al-Qaida, a Sunni
                 organization, and sent five of its men to the Pakistani
                 province of Waziristan for training. According to the FBI,
                 two volunteers -- who were already equipped with visas
                 allowing them to travel freely within the 25 European
                 countries belonging to the Schengen zone -- were supposedly
                 already en route to Germany and would enter the United Arab
                 Emirates on Monday, Nov. 22. There, they would allegedly be
                 provided with new travel documents before traveling on to
                 Germany. One of the men is supposedly named "Khan," which is
                 about as common in that part of the world as "Smith" is in
                 English-speaking countries. And no firm conclusion had been
                 made about their nationalities.

                 The FBI agents even named the presumed masterminds behind
                 the operation. A certain Mushtaq Altaf Bin-Khadri, who is in
                 charge of finances and training for "Saif," allegedly
                 dispatched the terrorist squad. But the FBI was not in a
                 position to comment on the targets of the two men in
                 Germany.

                 One name came up time and again in the communique, and one
                 that pricked the Germans' ears: Dawood Ibrahim. The
                 54-year-old arms trader is "India's most-wanted man." The US
                 government has listed him as a "global terrorist" and
                 persuaded the United Nations to place his name on a list of
                 supporters of terror. Ibrahim is rumored to be the head of
                 D-Company, a criminal syndicate named after himself, and is
                 believed to be in charge of smuggling the suspected
                 terrorists into Germany.

                 Both the FBI and the BKA are attaching a lot of importance
                 to the information in the FBI communique. But the
                 intelligence services of the two countries -- the CIA in the
                 United States and the BND and Office for the Protection of
                 the Constitution in Germany, the country's foreign and
                 domestic intelligence agencies, respectively -- point to
                 internal contradictions as reasons for their skepticism. As
                 they see it, for example, it is highly unlikely that a
                 Shiite group would team up with Sunni terrorists, especially
                 since a good part of al-Qaida propaganda vilifies Shiites.
                 Other reasons for doubt include the facts that none of the
                 intelligence agencies was previously familiar with an
                 organization called "Saif," that there have been no
                 previously recorded threats against Germany by Indian
                 extremists, and that the whole scenario seems rather
                 implausible.

                 On the other hand, the FBI information is uncommonly
                 concrete. In addition to the names of the suspects, it also
                 provides information about the exact day on which they are
                 supposed to arrive in the United Arab Emirates. Moreover,
                 Ibrahim is believed to be one of the men behind the terror
                 attacks in Mumbai. If he really is involved, that alone
                 would be reason enough for worry.

                 Abnormal Circumstances

                 Under normal circumstances, a message of this kind from the
                 United States would no doubt be cause for serious-minded
                 scrutiny, but it would not be a cause for alarm. For
                 example, the BKA would go through all recent visa
                 applications, and federal police officers would take a
                 closer look at all the people entering Germany from Arab
                 states. And the intelligence services would make the rounds
                 to see if any of its partners had any helpful information on
                 the matter.

                 Indeed, under normal circumstances, there are always a lot
                 of these communiques, most of which turn out to be false
                 alarms. But these are no normal circumstances. Germany is in
                 a state of emergency. Other countries, such as the United
                 States, employ a system of official warning levels based on
                 color codes that change -- from yellow to orange, for
                 example -- when the danger level is thought to increase.
                 But, in Germany, the interior minister is the barometer: He
                 consults with experts -- and then it is he who must call the
                 shots.

                 For the minister, a situation like this presents a dilemma.
                 If he remains silent and something happens, he's a failure.
                 If he makes loud warning and nothing happens, he's just a
                 rabble-rouser trying to push through controversial tougher
                 security laws. And, of course, the public never thanks you
                 if everyday life continues in a normal, peaceful way.

                 Absolute Security Remains a Pipe Dream

                 When de Maiziere became Germany's interior minister, he had
                 planned to lead the ministry in a level-headed way. For
                 example, he prefers to use phrases such as "internal calm"
                 rather than "internal security." And it was only six weeks
                 ago that he uttered the sentence: "There's no cause for
                 alarm." But, since then, the chorus of warning voices has
                 only ballooned in size.

                 This change in course is the combined result of everything
                 that happened beforehand. It might very well turn out that
                 the alleged Indian terror squad stays home and that the raid
                 on the Reichstag never happens. But what will remain is a
                 well-founded supposition that there is a critical mass of
                 terrorists in the border region between Afghanistan and
                 Pakistan that is thinking about launching attacks in Europe
                 -- and certainly in Germany, as well.

                 Raw Nerves

                 Given such circumstances, there is a major sense of alarm
                 among German officials. Last Thursday, just a day after de
                 Maiziere's shocking press conference, the BKA issued a press
                 release "in connection with the current high-risk
                 situation." It reported that a piece of suspicious luggage
                 had been discovered a day earlier in Windhoek, the capital
                 of Namibia, before being loaded onto a plane bound for
                 Germany. The laptop bag contained batteries, wires, a
                 detonator and a clock -- in other words, all the ingredients
                 you need for a potential airborne catastrophe.

                 It sounded as if another terror plot had been foiled. Had
                 there been a plan to blow up Air Berlin Flight 7377 en route
                 to Munich? And had the authorities, yet again, discovered an
                 explosive device at the last minute? In the end, all the
                 worry was unfounded. As it turned out, the piece of luggage
                 was a test device built by a company that designs "real
                 test" suitcases to be used to test security measures. It
                 remains unclear who checked the bag in. But the fact that
                 the BKA was so quick to go into alarm mode -- and publicly
                 so -- has been a communications debacle.

                 Of course, these days, nobody wants to be the one that
                 wasn't sufficiently circumspect, the one who took too long
                 to speak up. No one wants a replay of situations like the
                 one from the beginning of November, when de Maiziere didn't
                 know for hours whether the package that had arrived at the
                 Chancellery contained actual explosives or was just a false
                 alarm. Now, the threshold for sounding the alarm is already
                 much lower.

                 Bonded by Fear

                 Of course, you can never be too sure. Over the last 12
                 months, a series of attacks concocted in the
                 Afghan-Pakistani border region have been foiled in the West.
                 For example, in May, a car bomb set in New York's Times
                 Square by a man with ties to the Pakistani Taliban failed to
                 properly detonate. In Copenhagen, al-Qaida had made plans to
                 storm the offices of the Jyllands-Posten newspaper as
                 revenge for its 2005 publishing of caricatures of the
                 Prophet Muhammad. In October 2009, David Headley, an
                 American citizen with Pakistani roots, was arrested after
                 having already visited the newspaper's offices in order to
                 scout them out before the planned attack. Other targets
                 reportedly included the subway systems of New York City and
                 Washington.

                 On the other hand, absolute security is a pipe dream. For
                 example, British authorities had even conducted rehearsals
                 for how to respond to possible attacks. But, even so, when
                 attacks claiming 56 lives (including those of four
                 attackers) did strike London, on July 7, 2005, they were
                 unable to prevent them. Likewise, US intelligence services
                 had warned India a number of times that terrorists were
                 planning attacks in Mumbai.

                 The new situation in Germany has at least had one positive
                 side effect: For the time being, the traditionally
                 quarrelsome interior ministers from both the state and the
                 federal levels have refrained from their usual bickering.
                 Following informal talks held last Thursday in Hamburg,
                 Minister Bruch of Rhineland-Palatinate noted that he had
                 "never experienced such harmony within this group" that has
                 apparently been bonded together by their shared fear.

                 Translated from the German by Josh Ward

               --

               Sean Noonan

               Tactical Analyst

               Office: +1 512-279-9479

               Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

               Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

               www.stratfor.com

             --

             - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

             Marko Papic

             Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

             STRATFOR

             700 Lavaca Street - 900

             Austin, Texas

             78701 USA

             P: + 1-512-744-4094

             marko.papic@stratfor.com

           --

           Sean Noonan

           Tactical Analyst

           Office: +1 512-279-9479

           Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

           Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

           www.stratfor.com

         --

         - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

         Marko Papic

         Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

         STRATFOR

         700 Lavaca Street - 900

         Austin, Texas

         78701 USA

         P: + 1-512-744-4094

         marko.papic@stratfor.com

       --

       - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

       Marko Papic

       Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

       STRATFOR

       700 Lavaca Street - 900

       Austin, Texas

       78701 USA

       P: + 1-512-744-4094

       marko.papic@stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX
</description>
    <date>2010-11-22 18:33:28</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2018116_re-ct-discussion-germany-ct-the-story-behind-germany-s.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ben.west@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2034823</id>
    <title>take 2
</title>
    <description>Cara Sra. Allison,
 
percebi agora que dia 03.07 é sabado e os demais setores da Embaixada do
Brasil não estarem funcionando, exceto o setor de segurança das
instalações físicas. 
Caso não haja problema poderemos nos encontrar na Adidância Policial na
segunda-feira seguinte, dia 05.07.2010 às 1000 hs. 
Se porventura a senhora não puder comparecer no dia 05.07, por mim não
haveria problema em, excepcionalmente, atendê-la no dia 03.07 às 10:00
hs porquanto, inobstante as instalações da Adidância Policial serem
parte integrante da estrutura da  Embaixada do Brasil, possuem entrada
independente e autônoma e como moro praticamente ao lado da Embaixada
não me causaria nenhum problema.
 
Qualquer outra necessidade é só me contatar. 
 
Atenciosamente, 
 
Antonio Celso dos Santos
</description>
    <date>2010-06-21 15:49:30</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-26 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2034823_take-2-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>allison.fedirka@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>paulo.gregoire@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2036208</id>
    <title>[alpha] Body bound for Dover, DE on CIA plane
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-05-02 05:51:12</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 17:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2036208_-alpha-body-bound-for-dover-de-on-cia-plane-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2038816</id>
    <title>[latam] BRAZIL - COUNTRY BRIEF PM
</title>
    <description>   BRAZIL

    

   ECONOMY

   Consumer prices in Brazil are under control despite a recent uptick, and
   the inflation pressure from food prices will ease next year as those costs
   drop, the country's finance minister, Guido Mantega, said on Thursday.

   http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0222461620101202

    

    

   ENERGY

   Brazila**s Senate plans to reduce the amount of time that mining companies
   have to explore minerals deposits in a bid to accelerate fertilizer
   production, Senator Edison Lobao said in an interview.

   http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-02/brazil-senate-plans-to-cut-time-to-explore-deposits-lobao-says.html

    

   Brazilian miner Vale (VALE5.SA: Quote), the world's largest iron ore
   producer, on Thursday inaugurated a $140 million copper project in Chile,
   part of the company's efforts to diversify away from the iron business.

   http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFN0220413420101202

    

    

    

   MILITARY

   Brazil has deployed a 1,500-strong security force to patrol borders with
   Paraguay and Bolivia to curb the smuggling of weapons and drugs by
   organized crime, O Estado de S. Paulo reported.

   http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-02/brazil-reinforces-borders-with-paraguay-bolivia-estado-says.html

    

    

               Brazil prices under control, food to drop-Mantega

   http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0222461620101202

    

   BRASILIA, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Consumer prices in Brazil are under control
   despite a recent uptick, and the inflation pressure from food prices will
   ease next year as those costs drop, the country's finance minister, Guido
   Mantega, said on Thursday.

   "Inflation is under control, it's not going to go outside the target and
   the government will do what's necessary to keep it that way," he said.

   Brazil's inflation target for this year and next is 4.5 percent, plus or
   minus 2 percentage points.

   The central bank uses that target as a guide in setting its benchmark
   interest rate, the Selic. Policymakers will meet Wednesday, Dec. 8, to
   consider changing the rate from its current 10.75 percent -- one of the
   highest in the world.

   "If you look at the IPCA (price index) and take out food and fuel,
   inflation is below 5 percent," he said.

   Food and fuel costs tend to be among the most volatile, making it harder
   to identify trends.

   "We don't have to worry about this because there will be a drop in food
   prices next year," Mantega said, adding that wholesale prices for some
   food items have already signaled lower retail prices to come.

   Brazil's inflation rate has spiked recently, reaching 5.47 percent in the
   12 months through mid-November, and investors have recently more
   aggressively priced in interest rate hikes in coming months.

   Paulo Gregoire
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com

                                        

                                        

        Brazil Senate Plans to Cut Time to Explore Deposits, Lobao Says

   http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-02/brazil-senate-plans-to-cut-time-to-explore-deposits-lobao-says.html

   Dec 3, 2010 2:28 AM GMT+0900

    

   Brazila**s Senate plans to reduce the amount of time that mining companies
   have to explore minerals deposits in a bid to accelerate fertilizer
   production, Senator Edison Lobao said in an interview.

   Lawmakers will propose limiting the period on exploration contracts to as
   few as 20 years, said Lobao, 73, the former energy minister who said he
   will probably return to the post on Jan. 1. Brazilian President Luiz
   Inacio Lula da Silvaa**s administration is preparing proposed mining
   legislation that includes a 35-year deadline.

   a**We want to set rigid time limits to force companies to explore instead
   of speculate,a** Lobao said yesterday in an interview in Brasilia.

   The legislation, which Lula will likely send to congress for approval this
   year, is part of a plan to help Brazil reach self-sufficiency in
   fertilizer output within 10 years, Lobao said. The stricter time limit
   would be in line with countries such as Australia, the worlda**s biggest
   supplier of seaborne iron ore, which also grants 20 years to explore
   deposits, he said.

   Lobao said yesterday he may be named Mines and Energy Minister by
   President-elect Dilma Rousseff, who takes office on Jan. 1. Lobao stepped
   down in March to seek re-election as senator for the northeastern state of
   Maranhao.

   To contact the reporter on this story: Katia Cortes in Brasilia Newsroom
   at kcortes@bloomberg.net

   Paulo Gregoire
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com

                                        

              Brazil iron giant Vale diversifies with Chile copper

   http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFN0220413420101202

    

   SALAMANCA, Chile  Dec 2 (Reuters) - Brazilian miner Vale (VALE5.SA:
   Quote), the world's largest iron ore producer, on Thursday inaugurated a
   $140 million copper project in Chile, part of the company's efforts to
   diversify away from the iron business.

   The Tres Valles operation, Vale's first project in Chile, includes two
   mines and a processing plant with capacity to produce 18,500 tonnes of
   copper cathodes per year, equivalent to 0.34 percent of world No.1
   producer Chile's annual output.

   The new project highlights Vale's drive to increase its copper business.
   The company expects to produce 332,000 tonnes of copper in 2011 and then
   more than double it to 691,000 tonnes in 2015.

   Vale has copper production in Brazil and in Canada. It is developing a
   joint venture copper mine with Africa Rainbow Minerals in Zambia with an
   estimated production capacity of 45,000 tonnes per year.

   Copper represented less than 3 percent of Vale's revenues in the third
   quarter of 2010, compared with around 60 percent for iron ore in the same
   period, according to the company's earnings statement for that period.

   Vale has identified copper and fertilizers as key areas of expansion for
   the company. (Reporting by Brian Ellsworth; Editing by Marguerita Choy)

   Paulo Gregoire
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com

                                        

                                        

         Brazil Reinforces Borders With Paraguay, Bolivia, Estado Says

   http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-02/brazil-reinforces-borders-with-paraguay-bolivia-estado-says.html

   Dec 2, 2010 10:56 PM GMT+0900

   Brazil has deployed a 1,500-strong security force to patrol borders with
   Paraguay and Bolivia to curb the smuggling of weapons and drugs by
   organized crime, O Estado de S. Paulo reported.

   More than 80 percent of the arms and drugs smuggled into Brazil enter the
   country through those borders, the Sao Paulo- based newspaper reported,
   citing Brazila**s Federal Police.

   The Federal Police has coordinated an operation to reinforce border
   security since March, Estado said.

   To contact the reporter on this story: Juan Pablo Spinetto in Rio de
   Janeiro at o jspinetto@bloomberg.net

   Paulo Gregoire
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com

    

   Paulo Gregoire
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-02 21:57:46</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-02 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2038816_-latam-brazil-country-brief-pm-.html</permalink>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2043434</id>
    <title>[OS]  INDIA/CT - Dozens dead in India train-bus collision
</title>
    <description>   Dozens dead in India train-bus collision
   07 Jul 2011 05:32
   http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia/2011/07/20117745623725921.html

   More than 30 people have been killed and dozens more injured after a train
   rammed into a bus in northern India.

   The accident took place in the Kanshiram Nagar district of the Uttar
   Pradesh state on Thursday, as about 80 bus passengers were heading home
   from a wedding party, a local administrator said.

   "The bus was stranded here due to some technical problem, suddenly a train
   came," Saurabh Srivastava, the local police superintendent, said.

   "The bus was carrying many passengers and until now, we have found 20 to
   25 bodies and searching for other 25 bodies. We are still taking away
   bodies from here."

   The Press Trust of India news agency, quoting unnamed railway sources,
   said 33 people had been killed and 17 injured, while the UNI news agency
   quoted a local magistrate as saying 31 bodies had been recovered and
   almost 40 wounded.

   The bus had stopped at a railroad crossing after its axle broke and was
   hit by the train, an official said.

   The train dragged the mangled bus more than 500 metres before coming to a
   halt, he said. No passengers on the train were hurt.

   The NDTV network broadcast footage from the scene, about 170km southeast
   of New Delhi, showing debris strewn across the tracks and police officers
   carrying bodies covered with sheets on stretchers.

   Train accidents are common in India, where the world's largest railroad
   network carries more than 14 million passengers each day, but this is the
   most deadly accident in 2011.

   The railways is the country's largest employer with 1.4 million people on
   its payroll. Most accidents are blamed on poor maintenance and human
   error.
</description>
    <date>2011-07-07 16:08:34</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-17 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2043434_-os-india-ct-dozens-dead-in-india-train-bus-collision-.html</permalink>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2046029</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - PARAGUAY/US/MIL - New Horizon mil, devo program
</title>
    <description>   CODE: PY 505
   ATTRIBUTION: Paraguay military   
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: officer
   PUBLICATION: n/a
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B-
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 6
   DISTRIBUTION: Latam
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Allison

    
   Followed up (phone) with a source as per Reva's request.  I basically
   asked him how he interprets the US ambassador's comments about the New
   Horizon military and how seriously Paraguay would consider and view such
   cooperation....

   He first explained that Lugo is the first left Pres Paraguay has had in
   recent history and that he's more center-left as opposed to extreme left. 
   Source believes that Lugo needed to follow along with these center-left
   ideas/beliefs at the beginning of his term; source used being wary of the
   States as an example.  Source believes this is one of the reasons why Lugo
   became more vocal/assertive towards Brazil (ex, Itaipu) upon taking
   office.  Source clarified that Paraguay will never dream of confronting
   Brazil and understands well its subordinate role.  At the same time
   Paraguay also has a healthy fear of Brazil's potential for domination and
   doesn't like seeing Brasilia getting to involved and powerful in Paraguay
   (when I refer to powerful inside Paraguay I mean local level, cultural
   things such as Brasiguayos and Brazilian business, etc). Source said that
   now Lugo's approaching the half way point of his term, he is not afraid to
   make changes w/i the govt to help direct the course he wants to follow.

   Source said that the key to understanding this potentially renewed
   military cooperation is the nature of the cooperation.  New Horizon is a
   humanitarian, development program in which the US military would go in to
   areas where the Paraguayan government is absent and help the communities
   develop and increase their standard of living.  Source said that the
   Paraguayan govt is now realizing that the results of the New Horizon
   program would be good things and that cooperating on this front would
   result in more benefits for Paraguay than losses. Source also reminded me
   that one of Lugo's promises/goals for his Presidency was to reach out to
   the poor communities and increase development. (side note - this also goes
   along with what I heard when in Paraguay.  The Armed Forces were just
   finishing up the field portion of a study that evaluated the rural, poor
   areas of the country with the goal of identifying their needs and
   developing govt programs or other courses of action to address these
   needs).

   I asked him if the presence of US military would offend Paraguay's
   military.  He said that no, he did not believe this would be something
   that would cause an all out ruckus in the Paraguayan military and that
   things should be pretty cool given the humanitarian, social nature of the
   project.  I then asked why the US, why not ask Brazil for this help in
   this area?  He laughed out loud with his first reaction being ' you're a
   bright girl, figure it out'.  And then implied that having the US around
   was not a bad thing in terms of balancing out countries giving help to
   Paraguay.

   He also mentioned that within the Paraguayan military there exists a group
   that is very pro-Brazil; there are also those that are anti-Brazil.  Also,
   when he was serving officially in Brazil, he said the amount of respect
   and 'ceremonia' that they always demonstrated for him was remarkably high.
</description>
    <date>2010-09-23 21:14:42</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-13 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2046029_insight-paraguay-us-mil-new-horizon-mil-devo-program-.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2046719</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - BRAZIL - national security, terrorism, drugs, Argentina,
	etc.
</title>
    <description>175</description>
    <date>2011-01-06 17:03:56</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-26 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2046719_insight-brazil-national-security-terrorism-drugs-argentina.html</permalink>
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      <file><path>attach/14/14831_msg-21780-26253.jpg</path><size>20053</size><md5></md5><sha1>5870180f87f562fce80a808d0f34c2d996f7f678</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/14/14832_msg-21780-26252.jpg</path><size>19732</size><md5></md5><sha1>fa78cd8775a7f8e6c785fb23e5b9d614b612d0e9</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2048705</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] (more) TrapWire on Kabul Hotel Attack
</title>
    <description>   Two points here:

   1. If they were in fact dressed in Afghan police clothing it brings us
   back to the question we addressed in the afghan weekly a few weeks ago
   where there is concern about militant infiltration into the Afghan
   security forces. This definitely makes things difficult as the Afghan
   security forces are handed over the control which brings us to Sean's
   point about the fact the operation primarily ended with the NATO
   helicopters shooting down 3 men on the roof and even then there was one
   guy just going around in the hotel and it took about 2 hours to contain
   him.

   2. Also if the militants were dressed in Afghan police attire it explains
   how they managed to bypass those multiple layers of defense.

   On Wednesday, 6/29/11 9:27 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

     Nothing to confirm or refute this initial claim. But new reporting
     suggests attackers arrived dressed as Afghan police. This is standard MO
     for Taliban...and many terror groups as you know. Only thing that
     everyone agrees on right now is that this thing was meticulously
     planned, and clearly well surveilled ahead of time. This hotel has
     multiple layers of defense -- including armed guards -- and still the
     bad guys got in. We don't have a single hotel in this country with even
     10% of the security the Intercontinental had. When they decide to start
     targeting hotels here, it'll shooting fish in a barrel.

      

      

     Stormed in force out of a vehicle after one perp detonated a vest at the
     gate  (Mike, think this remains accurate?)

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-06-29 16:46:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2048705_re-alpha-more-trapwire-on-kabul-hotel-attack-.html</permalink>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2055290</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Mercenary
   Contract hit

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Hoor Jangda &lt;hoor.jangda@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:25:36 -0500 (CDT)
   To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
   height.

   On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

     Was the shooter a Libyan?

     On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:26:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2055290_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2055777</id>
    <title>sorrisa do dia (para mim)
</title>
    <description> hehe, look at how he spelled my name.  Soooo cute!  At least he didn't
think I was a man like some other dude that wrote to us.  Bummer I won't
be going back.  Getting along with Brazil Fed Police dude seems like it
would be super useful. 


On 10/14/2010 5:42 PM, ANTONIO CELSO DOS SANTOS wrote:
&gt; Cara Allisson,
&gt;  
&gt; muito obrigado pelas informações. Vou ler com calma e depois lhe respondo.
&gt;  
&gt; É uma pena que você não possa nos visitar antes do fim do ano.
&gt;  
&gt; Entre os dias 08 a 12/11/2010 estarei viajando para Brasília para um
&gt; curso.
&gt;  
&gt; Depois estarei viajando de férias a partir do dia 31 de dezembro para
&gt; o Brasil. Só voltarei no dia 20 de janeiro de 2011. Porém, sempre
&gt; estarei verificando meu email. 
&gt;  
&gt; Quando quiser pode me mandar notícias suas que gosto muito de
&gt; conversar com você.
&gt;  
&gt; grande abraço, 
&gt;  
&gt; Antonio Celso dos Santos  
&gt;  
</description>
    <date>2010-10-15 17:13:22</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-26 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2055777_sorrisa-do-dia-para-mim-.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2088038</id>
    <title>[OS] AFGHANISTAN/NEW ZEALAND/MIL - Two in three New Zealanders want
 special forces out of Afghanistan: poll
</title>
    <description>   all 38 of them, what blow that would be. [clint]

   Two in three New Zealanders want special forces out of Afghanistan: poll
   English.news.cn   2011-08-01 06:31:42     FeedbackPrintRSS
   http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-08/01/c_131021523.htm

   WELLINGTON, Aug. 1 (Xinhua) -- Nearly two thirds of New Zealanders want
   the country's special forces to come home after they finish their current
   tour of duty in Afghanistan, a poll revealed Monday.

   The New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll survey found 63.3 percent of respondents
   wanted the country's Special Air Service forces out of Afghanistan, while
   23.1 percent thought they should remain beyond March next year, while the
   rest said they did not know.

   The 38 SAS troops are based in Kabul and have been training and mentoring
   the Afghan Crisis Response Unit, which responds to incidents including
   terrorist attacks.

   Last month the New Zealand SAS intervened in a three-hour gunfight with
   Taliban fighters who attacked the home of Jan Mohammed Khan, a close
   adviser to President Hamid Karzai, and in June, they helped fight off an
   attack at the Inter-Continental Hotel in Kabul.

   New Zealand Prime Minister John Key has said that the force needed to come
   home to "regroup" and spend time in New Zealand, but a spokesman for Key
   told the New Zealand Herald only that Key' s "expectation" was they would
   return in March, the newspaper reported Monday.

   Key has also said that some members of the SAS had wanted to stay on in
   Afghanistan beyond March.

   New Zealand's opposition Labour and Green parties have called for the SAS
   troops to return, saying they are helping a regime that had lost the
   confidence of the Afghan people.

   Other New Zealand forces are serving as a provincial reconstruction team
   in Afghanistan's Bamiyan province, and will be gradually withdrawn by
   2014.

   The New Zealand SAS Group, formed in 1955, is an elite combat unit of the
   New Zealand Defence Force tasked with counter- terrorism and difficult
   overseas operations.

 --
 Clint Richards
 Strategic Forecasting Inc.
 clint.richards@stratfor.com
 c: 254-493-5316
</description>
    <date>2011-08-01 03:27:36</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-07-30 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2088038_-os-afghanistan-new-zealand-mil-two-in-three-new-zealanders.html</permalink>
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    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2091414</id>
    <title>Re: [latam] BRAZIL/PARAGUAY/CT - Brazil and Paraguay declare war on
 drugs along their border
</title>
    <description>   One concrete move Brazil said it will do is invest $35 mln to reinforce
   border police and 11 bases, 2 of which are adjacent to the Paraguayan
   border in Matto Grosso and Parana.  This also looks like it will transfer
   into some political cooperation as well.  3 suspected EPP
   members/sympathizers are hiding out in Brazil.  Previously Brazil denied
   Prgy extradition requests.  Prgy then filed a caseagainst Brazil at the
   UN.  Yesterday Lula said that, since new information has been sent, will
   reconsider sending the 3 back to Prgy.

   Prgy has domestic stability to win from this.  Lots of Brazilian gangs,
   drug dealers are believed to be operating in Northern Prgy.  Stopping them
   at borders will help Brazil as well. And there is the presence of
   Brasiguayos in Prgy.  Brazil has interests in keeping those people safe
   (esp since Brazilian money is the be source of investment for soy and
   farming in Prgy).  Not sure how add border control, especially in Parana,
   will affect illegal business practices done by Brasiguayos.  It's been
   reported that some will smuggle there good grown in Prgy back over to
   Brazil to be sold there.

            Brasil y Paraguay declaran la guerra al narco fronterizo

     Los presidentes de Brasil, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, y de Paraguay,
     Fernando Lugo, acordaron iniciar de inmediato una guerra sin cuartel
     contra el narco en la zona fronteriza.

     Ambos mandatarios tras reunirse el lunes en la localidad limitrofe
     brasilena de Ponta Pora, estimaron necesario acordar medidas conjuntas
     para impulsar la cooperacion bilateral y combatir la violencia del
     narcotrafico en la frontera que comparten ambos paises.

     "Ante la ilegalidad del crimen y el trafico de drogas nos hemos unidos
     para tomar las medidas. Hemos dado un paso al frente en esa direccion de
     definir los mecanismos a seguir, planteados bajo un clima de dialogo
     maduro y equilibrado" , explico el presidente brasileno, de acuerdo al
     portal Telsur.

     "Los narcotraficantes se metieron con los gobiernos de Brasil y
     Paraguay. Ahora vamos a enfrentarlos" ,agrego. En los ultimos meses los
     pistoleros al servicio sel crimen organizado en desatado varias batallas
     en contra de las autoridades de ambos paises.

 --
 Alex Posey
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 alex.posey@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-05-04 18:07:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-13 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2091414_re-latam-brazil-paraguay-ct-brazil-and-paraguay-declare-war.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>allison.fedirka@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>latam@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:latam@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2123018</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [OS] CHINA/CT/MIL - Chinese army develops drug to
 keep soldiers awake for up to 72 hours - paper
</title>
    <description>   thats how why the cartels are so hardcore

   On 10/17/11 8:24 AM, Jose Mora wrote:

     Last time I checked this was called "crack"

     On 10/17/11 8:15 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

    Chinese army develops drug to keep soldiers awake for up to 72 hours -   
    paper                                                                    
                                                                             
    Text of report headlined "PLA eyes 'night eagle' to make army of night   
    owls" published by Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post website  
    on 16 October                                                            
                                                                             
    The People's Liberation Army (PLA) [Chinese army] has opened up a new    
    front in the war against sleep.                                          
                                                                             
    It has developed a drug that can keep its soldiers awake and active for  
    as long as 72 hours, state television reported yesterday. But its        
    scientists didn't disclose its ingredients.                              
                                                                             
    The anti-sleep drug - called Night Eagle - was unveiled as one of 600    
    scientific achievements in an exhibition marking the 60th anniversary of 
    the Academy of Military Medical Sciences. The China Central Television   
    report did not give further details about the new drug, such as any hint 
    of its composition, how it works or its possible side effects.           
                                                                             
    Instead, quoting academy researcher Wang Lin, it said the drug was       
    developed specifically for the military to help soldiers cope with sleep 
    deprivation during missions.                                             
                                                                             
    "Our troops will have to stay awake for a long time while being able to  
    maintain cognitive abilities when they are deployed in search and rescue 
    operations after earthquakes, floods and other disasters and some        
    special military missions," Wang said.                                   
                                                                             
    Analysts said the Night Eagle drug appeared similar to                   
    sleep-suppressants widely used by armed forces of other countries.       
                                                                             
    "Although I have no information about the newly invented drug, it is not 
    at all surprising to see efforts to control sleep and develop anti-sleep 
    technology because of their apparent practical uses in combat            
    situations," said Professor Ni Lexiong, a Shanghai-based military        
    expert.                                                                  
                                                                             
    "Whether our troops can deprive themselves of sleep hours or even days   
    longer than their opponents could make a major difference in combat," Ni 
    said.                                                                    
                                                                             
    Ni believed the PLA would not reveal the drug's composition or           
    associated experimental data, but said it probably worked the same way   
    as other stimulants developed in the West. Any possible side effects of  
    the drug were also unknown.                                              
                                                                             
    One popular military stimulant in the West is modafinil, which was       
    originally developed to treat narcolepsy but is now used by US, French,  
    British and Indian armed forces as an alternative to amphetamines, as    
    well as by students to fight fatigue.                                    
                                                                             
    Modafinil has been a popular lifestyle drug for people who want to       
    chemically turn off sleep with fewer side effects.                       
                                                                             
    Experts also said anti-sleep drugs were becoming more important hi-tech  
    aids and the US military reportedly developed a formulation that kept    
    soldiers awake for seven straight days and nights in the early 2000s.    
                                                                             
    Source: South China Morning Post website, Hong Kong, in English 16 Oct   
    11                                                                       
                                                                             
    BBC Mon AS1 ASDel ma                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4300 ex 4112

 --
 JOSE MORA
 ADP
 STRATFOR

 --
 Anthony Sung
 ADP STRATFOR
</description>
    <date>2011-10-17 15:25:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2123018_re-eastasia-os-china-ct-mil-chinese-army-develops-drug-to.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anthony.sung@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2125245</id>
    <title>[OS] INDIA/CT/GV- Death toll from derailed train in India now at 60
</title>
    <description>[this news also has the Assam blast story that caused train derailment the =
end. Bad sunday for Indian railways)

Death toll from derailed train in India now at 60
AP=20
http://news.yahoo.com/death-toll-derailed-train-india-now-60-034936343.html



LUCKNOW, India (AP) =E2=80=94 Officials say the death toll from a train der=
ailment in northern India has risen to 60 as more bodies are being pulled o=
ut of the mangled coaches.

The senior army official in charge of rescue operations at the accident sit=
e says volunteers and soldiers have pulled out 60 bodies from 12 coaches of=
 the Kalka Mail, which went off the tracks Sunday afternoon.

Col. Amarjit Dhillon told the Associated Press on Monday that many more bod=
ies were trapped under the twisted coaches and soldiers were using gas cutt=
ers to slice through the metal.

Rescue workers working through the night rescued many of the more than 100 =
injured in the accident near the town of Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh state.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP=
's earlier story is below.

FATEHPUR, India (AP) =E2=80=94 Rescuers searched for survivors in the wreck=
age of a packed express train that derailed in northern India on Sunday aft=
ernoon, killing at least 31 people, while officials said a second train der=
ailment hundreds of miles (kilometers) to the northeast appeared to have be=
en caused by a remote-controlled bomb.

Rescuers were working to reach the second derailment, which occurred late S=
unday night in a rural area of Assam state, injuring at least 100. The two =
railway incidents did not appear to be related.

In the first crash, the Kalka Mail train was on its way to Kalka, in the fo=
othills of the Himalayas, from Howrah, a station near Kolkata in eastern In=
dia, when 12 coaches and the engine jumped the tracks at Malwan station, ne=
ar the town of Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh state, senior railway official A.K=
. Jain said.

The cause of the derailment was not immediately clear but it appeared that =
the driver applied the emergency brakes, Jain said.

At least 31 people were killed and rescue workers pulled at least 100 injur=
ed passengers out of the wreckage, said Brij Lal, a state police official.

Hours later, the second train derailed in the northeastern state of Assam, =
injuring at least 100 people, said S.K. Roy, a local magistrate.

Local police suspect that a remote control-triggered bomb caused four coach=
es of the Gauhati-Puri Express to be thrown off the tracks in the town of R=
angiya, about 30 miles (50 kilometers) west of the state's capital, Gauhati=
, Roy said.

S. Hajong, a local railways spokesman, said two of the four coaches plunged=
 into a pond and casualties are feared.

Roy did not blame any rebel group and no one has taken responsibility for t=
he attack so far. More than 30 groups in northeastern India have been fight=
ing for decades for independence or wide autonomy in the region, about 1,00=
0 miles (1,600 kilometers) east of New Delhi.

It was the third train accident in India in the last four days. A train hit=
 a bus at an unmanned railway crossing last Thursday, killing 35 people.

In Fatehpur, the accident site was a pile of twisted metal. At least one co=
ach flew above the roof of another ahead of it and was dangling precariousl=
y, television footage showed. Another coach was thrown away from the rest o=
f the train.

The toll was likely to rise as rescuers made their way through the coaches =
and used gas cutters to cut through the mangled metal, Lal said. Rescue eff=
orts continued late into the night.

"We're trying to cut into the coaches and rescue those still trapped inside=
," Lal said.

A senior railway official, H.C. Joshi, told CNN-IBN news channel that rescu=
ers were struggling to free at least five people pinned under the wreckage =
of one of the worst-damaged coaches.

Medical personnel rushed to the area, about 75 miles (120 kilometers) south=
east of Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh state.

Army helicopters were ferrying the most seriously injured victims to hospit=
als and 30 army engineers had joined the rescue efforts, Lal said.

TV stations showed local residents helping injured passengers away from the=
 train, several in makeshift stretchers, and breaking the windows of coache=
s to help those trapped inside.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh expressed "deep sorrow and shock" at the loss=
 of lives. The Railways Ministry announced compensation of 500,000 rupees (=
$11,000) for the families of those killed in the accident.

The number of passengers on board the Kalka Mail =E2=80=94 named for its pa=
st use in the postal service =E2=80=94 was not known. Express trains normal=
ly carry about 1,000 people and travel at speeds of 60-80 miles (100-130 ki=
lometers) per hour.

India's railroad network is one of the largest in the world and carries abo=
ut 14 million passengers a day. Accidents are common, with most blamed on p=
oor maintenance and human error.


--=20
Animesh
</description>
    <date>2011-07-11 06:41:29</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-17 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2125245_-os-india-ct-gv-death-toll-from-derailed-train-in-india-now.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>os@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>watchofficer@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:os@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>animesh.roul@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2151434</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [OS] CHINA/CT/MIL - Chinese army develops drug to
 keep soldiers awake for up to 72 hours - paper
</title>
    <description>   scifi comingn true

   On 10/17/11 8:15 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

    Chinese army develops drug to keep soldiers awake for up to 72 hours -   
    paper                                                                    
                                                                             
    Text of report headlined "PLA eyes 'night eagle' to make army of night   
    owls" published by Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post website  
    on 16 October                                                            
                                                                             
    The People's Liberation Army (PLA) [Chinese army] has opened up a new    
    front in the war against sleep.                                          
                                                                             
    It has developed a drug that can keep its soldiers awake and active for  
    as long as 72 hours, state television reported yesterday. But its        
    scientists didn't disclose its ingredients.                              
                                                                             
    The anti-sleep drug - called Night Eagle - was unveiled as one of 600    
    scientific achievements in an exhibition marking the 60th anniversary of 
    the Academy of Military Medical Sciences. The China Central Television   
    report did not give further details about the new drug, such as any hint 
    of its composition, how it works or its possible side effects.           
                                                                             
    Instead, quoting academy researcher Wang Lin, it said the drug was       
    developed specifically for the military to help soldiers cope with sleep 
    deprivation during missions.                                             
                                                                             
    "Our troops will have to stay awake for a long time while being able to  
    maintain cognitive abilities when they are deployed in search and rescue 
    operations after earthquakes, floods and other disasters and some        
    special military missions," Wang said.                                   
                                                                             
    Analysts said the Night Eagle drug appeared similar to                   
    sleep-suppressants widely used by armed forces of other countries.       
                                                                             
    "Although I have no information about the newly invented drug, it is not 
    at all surprising to see efforts to control sleep and develop anti-sleep 
    technology because of their apparent practical uses in combat            
    situations," said Professor Ni Lexiong, a Shanghai-based military        
    expert.                                                                  
                                                                             
    "Whether our troops can deprive themselves of sleep hours or even days   
    longer than their opponents could make a major difference in combat," Ni 
    said.                                                                    
                                                                             
    Ni believed the PLA would not reveal the drug's composition or           
    associated experimental data, but said it probably worked the same way   
    as other stimulants developed in the West. Any possible side effects of  
    the drug were also unknown.                                              
                                                                             
    One popular military stimulant in the West is modafinil, which was       
    originally developed to treat narcolepsy but is now used by US, French,  
    British and Indian armed forces as an alternative to amphetamines, as    
    well as by students to fight fatigue.                                    
                                                                             
    Modafinil has been a popular lifestyle drug for people who want to       
    chemically turn off sleep with fewer side effects.                       
                                                                             
    Experts also said anti-sleep drugs were becoming more important hi-tech  
    aids and the US military reportedly developed a formulation that kept    
    soldiers awake for seven straight days and nights in the early 2000s.    
                                                                             
    Source: South China Morning Post website, Hong Kong, in English 16 Oct   
    11                                                                       
                                                                             
    BBC Mon AS1 ASDel ma                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4300 ex 4112

 --
 Anthony Sung
 ADP STRATFOR
</description>
    <date>2011-10-17 15:24:19</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2151434_re-eastasia-os-china-ct-mil-chinese-army-develops-drug-to.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anthony.sung@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2163407</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
 CODE
</title>
    <description>   It might sound strange, but some of the most radical deep ecology people
   actually believe that there are too many people on the earth and that
   radical steps must be taken to reduce the population and save the earth.
    This strain of deep ecology is a clear reflection of the way the movement
   was heavily influenced by people like Martin Heidegger who were also
   committed to Nazism. Yes, Nazis were radical environmentalists.....
   From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 23:08:31 -0600
   To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Jesus I spent a couple of hours researching these guys - weird is an
   understatement. Apparently they met yesterday a couple of blocks away from
   my house to consolidate their leadership, go through basic indoctrination
   and plan more events. As far as I can tell, the Austin chapter is not
   nearly as radical as the central Lierre Keith DGR whose website is a
   treasure trove of incitment to passive resistance, blowing up energy
   infra, basic counter intel and legal guidance.

   Their ideology seems to be a mix of hardcore environmentalism, anarchism,
   radical feminism and the general notion that we need to go back living
   sustainably like the american indians by blowing up every pipeline and
   cell tower on the planet. Unlike the central DGR, Austin DGR doesn't seem
   to have defined targets and goals (their meeting yesterday was a
   brainstorming session on what radical environmentalism means in Austin).

   just a few nice quotes from their central website:

   The task of an activist is not to navigate systems of oppressive power
   with as much personal integrity as possible; it is to dismantle those
   systems.

   What would we do if Nazis had invaded, and they were vacuuming the oceans,
   scalping native forests, damming every river, changing the climate, and
   putting carcinogens into every mother's breast milk, and into the flesh of
   your children, your lover, your mother, into your own flesh? How much
   worse would the damage have to get? Would you resist? If there existed a
   resistance movement, would you join it?

   On 11/16/11 7:42 PM, Victoria Allen wrote:

     WHOA.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 18:38:01 -0600
     To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Cc: Anya Alfano&lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
     CODE
     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not "radical" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the "Phoenix Commune" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as "stupid, crazy motherfuckers", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, "Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-17 14:01:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2163407_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2178592</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged "Anonymous" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise "anonymous"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-10 19:47:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2178592_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2197980</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
 CODE
</title>
    <description>   It might sound strange, but some of the most radical deep ecology people
   actually believe that there are too many people on the earth and that
   radical steps must be taken to reduce the population and save the earth.
    This strain of deep ecology is a clear reflection of the way the movement
   was heavily influenced by people like Martin Heidegger who were also
   committed to Nazism. Yes, Nazis were radical environmentalists.....
   From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 23:08:31 -0600
   To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Jesus I spent a couple of hours researching these guys - weird is an
   understatement. Apparently they met yesterday a couple of blocks away from
   my house to consolidate their leadership, go through basic indoctrination
   and plan more events. As far as I can tell, the Austin chapter is not
   nearly as radical as the central Lierre Keith DGR whose website is a
   treasure trove of incitment to passive resistance, blowing up energy
   infra, basic counter intel and legal guidance.

   Their ideology seems to be a mix of hardcore environmentalism, anarchism,
   radical feminism and the general notion that we need to go back living
   sustainably like the american indians by blowing up every pipeline and
   cell tower on the planet. Unlike the central DGR, Austin DGR doesn't seem
   to have defined targets and goals (their meeting yesterday was a
   brainstorming session on what radical environmentalism means in Austin).

   just a few nice quotes from their central website:

   The task of an activist is not to navigate systems of oppressive power
   with as much personal integrity as possible; it is to dismantle those
   systems.

   What would we do if Nazis had invaded, and they were vacuuming the oceans,
   scalping native forests, damming every river, changing the climate, and
   putting carcinogens into every mother's breast milk, and into the flesh of
   your children, your lover, your mother, into your own flesh? How much
   worse would the damage have to get? Would you resist? If there existed a
   resistance movement, would you join it?

   On 11/16/11 7:42 PM, Victoria Allen wrote:

     WHOA.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 18:38:01 -0600
     To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Cc: Anya Alfano&lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
     CODE
     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not "radical" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the "Phoenix Commune" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as "stupid, crazy motherfuckers", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, "Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-17 14:01:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2197980_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2228572</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION - What does a No-Fly Zone/Buffer Zone over Syria Mean?
</title>
    <description>   Is the no-fly zone concept about the entire country, or just a buffer area
   near turkey? Very different types of enforcement needed for those. Think
   the localized nfz's in Iraq years back. 
   As for what Assad is doing in regards to the Arab league, if he has been
   given until the 18th to implement, why not have a surge in the crackdown,
   highlight the significant force differential between the military and the
   opposition, and then offer the opposition a way out, or at least some of
   them. Ten you can get most of the street protests done, you can appease
   the AL (for whatever that is worth), and you can make it clear that you
   win. And if the surge doesn't bring the opposition elements fractured and
   begging to the table, ignore the AL and keep the battle going. 

   On Nov 8, 2011, at 12:47 PM, Michael Wilson &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
   wrote:

     The larger political shift is something I had wanted to discuss in the
     meeting. Now I'm not saying Turkey is going to escalate matters, but we
     should play devil's advocate with ourselves and ask some questions

     Arab league (meaning the states that comprise the AL) have given Syria
     til around the 18th to implement the peace plan. He is not going to do
     that. So the question is what do those states even get from this plan in
     the first place?

     Are they going to use Syria's failure to comply to move to closer to
     actually doing something?

     In the diplomatic/propoganda war they are "supporting" the FSA army
     which has minimum 70 people or exaggerated maximum 15K. The saudis are
     leaking plans (again) the Turkey will do a buffer region, while when
     DAvutoglu was asked recently whether he would or not he left the door
     open it

     Way to answer that I guess is to see what Turkey and KSA are actually
     thinking on Syria. Do they think he will survive or fall? If survive do
     they try to make nice? Do they try to make him fall? If they think he
     will fall, do they help it along or just wait? Do they have any
     capabilities in the first place? Are they just playing to domestic
     politics or preparing for the worst

     I feel like we've said they are waiting to see what happens and
     preparing for the worst. But that just seems so passive, wouldnt they be
     looking more ahead than that? At what do they make the decision that he
     is or isnt staying. After all according to Reva's piece coming out its
     looking more and more like he wont fall, so do they adjust to that?

     OS articles below

     Qatar calls for Arab League to meet again on Syria

     http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/06/us-syria-arabs-idUSTRE7A514Y20111106
     CAIRO | Sun Nov 6, 2011 9:28am EST
     (Reuters) - Qatar's prime minister called for Arab states to meet next
     Saturday to discuss the Syrian government's failure to take steps to
     solve its crisis, Egypt's official news agency MENA reported.

     "Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim, the Qatari Prime Minister, called for an
     emergency Arab League council meeting at foreign minister level next
     Saturday to look at the latest developments in Syria," MENA said.

     The meeting would discuss "the continuing violence and the government's
     failure to stick to its obligations under the Arab Action Plan to solve
     the crisis in Syria," it said.

     League circulates Syria''s reply to Arab plan

     http://www.kuna.net.kw/NewsAgenciesPublicSite/ArticleDetails.aspx?id=2201290&amp;Language=en

     Politics  11/7/2011 3:43:00 PM
      
     CAIRO, Nov 7 (KUNA) -- The Arab League received on Monday a letter from
     Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Al-Muallem that includes measures taken by
     the government to implement the Arab action plan to resolve the crisis
     in Syria.
     The League's Deputy Secretary General Ambassador Ahmad Ben Hilli said in
     a statement today that the League has circulated the letter on all
     Member States right after it received it.
     He said the letter tackled procedures carried out by the Syrian
     government to implement the Arab initiative.
     Qatar, as current President of the Arab Ministerial Council and
     Committee on the resolution of the Syrian crisis, has called for an
     emergency session next Saturday to discuss the situation developments in
     Syria in light of continuing violence.
     The Committee is expected to convene an emergency meeting late on Friday
     in Cairo to discuss the situation prior to the Council meeting the next
     day. (end) mfm.rg.tg KUNA 071543 Nov 11NNNN

     US: Syrian broken promises will increase pressure on regime
     Nov 3, 2011, 19:51 GMT

     http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/middleeast/news/article_1672923.php/US-Syrian-broken-promises-will-increase-pressure-on-regime
      
     Washington - The Syrian regime will become increasingly isolated if it
     continues to make and break promises to end the violence against its
     citizens, the United States said Thursday as security forces reportedly
     killed more than 20 people.
     'It's now incumbent on the Assad regime to prove it - first to the Arab
     League, and secondly to the larger international community - that it
     meant what it said when it committed to this deal,' State Department
     Spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said a day after Syria agreed on a deal with
     the Arab League to end the violence.
     'The Arab League will obviously draw its own conclusions if today,
     tomorrow, the next day, all of these promises that were made are again
     broken.'
     The number of countries that have pressured Syria to no avail will
     continue to lose the regime friends and increase the pressure on
     Damascus, she said.
     'We will predict that if (Assad) doesn't meet his promises to the Arab
     League, the Arab League is going to feel that they had promises made,
     promises broken, and they're going to have to react,' she said.

     Syria urges insurgents to turn selves in for amnesty

     http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/syria-urges-insurgents-to-turn-selves-in-for-amnesty/

     04 Nov 2011 13:08

     Source: reuters // Reuters

     BEIRUT, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Syria has called on insurgents to turn
     themselves into authorities within one week starting on Saturday to
     qualify for an amnesty, state television said on Friday.

     "The interior ministry calls on citizens who carried weapons, sold them,
     delivered them, transported them or funded buying them, and did not
     commit crimes, to hand themselves into the nearest police station," it
     said.

     "The interior ministry assures that those who turn themselves in ...
     will then be freed immediately and it will be considered as a general
     amnesty," it said.

     President Bashar al-Assad is confronting a popular revolt against 41
     years of rule by his family. The protest movement has been largely
     peaceful, but a nascent armed insurgency has emerged in some restive
     regions. (Reporting by Mariam Karouny; Editing by Mark Heinrich)

     Syria breaking commitments to Arab peace plan: France
     French government condemn Syrian security forces crackdown on peaceful
     protesters saying that Syria is breaking its commitments to an Arab
     League peace plan by continuing using violence against opposition
     AFP , Friday 4 Nov 2011
     http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/25944/World/Region/Syria-breaking-commitments-to-Arab-peace-plan-Fran.aspx

     France said Friday that Syria was breaking its commitments to an Arab
     League peace plan by continuing a deadly crackdown on protesters and
     cast doubt on President Bashar al-Assad's dedication to the deal.

     "The continuing repression can only strengthen the international
     community's doubts about the Syrian regime's sincerity to implement the
     Arab League peace plan," the French foreign ministry's deputy spokesman,
     Romain Nadal, told journalists.

     "We understand that at least 20 peaceful protesters were killed by
     security forces yesterday in Syria," he said.

     "The continuing repression is completely contrary to the commitments
     given by the Syrian regime to the Arab League."

     Syrian troops killed five civilians in protest centres on Friday as
     demonstrators took to the streets nationwide to test the regime's
     commitment to the Arab peace deal.

     Twenty civilians had been killed on Thursday -- the first day the
     hard-won agreement aimed at ending nearly eight months of bloodshed came
     into effect.

     The peace plan calls on Assad to withdraw security forces from protest
     hubs and engage in a national dialogue with his opponents.

     But Assad's opponents are sceptical about his readiness to rein in a
     brutal crackdown that the United Nations says has cost more than 3,000
     lives since mid-March.

     Turkish, Qatari ministers meet in Istanbul
     During the meeting, Ahmet Davutoglu and Khalid bin Muhammad al-Atiyah
     debated the agreement between Syrian administration and Arab League.
     http://www.worldbulletin.net/index.php?aType=haber&amp;ArticleID=81189

     Turkish foreign minister met Qatari minister of state for foreign
     affairs in Istanbul on Thursday.

     During the meeting, Ahmet Davutoglu and Khalid bin Muhammad al-Atiyah
     debated the agreement between Syrian administration and Arab League.

     Davutoglu briefed al-Atiyah on his meetings with Sudan's Foreign
     Minister Ali Ahmed Karti and Arab League's Secretary General Nabil
     al-Arabi.

     Al-Atiyah is visiting Turkey to hold talks regarding developments in
     Syria. He briefed Davutoglu on recent regional developments,
     particularly talks between Arab League and Syria.

     Arab League and Syrian administration have reached an agreement on
     ending violence in Syria as soon as possible and releasing people who
     were arrested during revolt against the government.

     Syria: Unofficial parties in Arab countries a**funding terroristsa**

     http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=328613

     November 2, 2011

     Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Moqdad accused on Tuesday
     unofficial Turkish, Lebanese, Jordanian and Saudi parties of funding
     a**terrorists in Syria.a**

     a**We do not want to say that the Saudi, Turkish, Lebanese and Jordanian
     governments are funding armed groups [in Syria], but we think that
     unofficial parties from these countries are funding [terrorists in
     Syria]. We request these countries to not allow this happen,a** he told
     the Russia Today channel.

     Moqdad also said that there are parties that want to incite a civil war
     in Syria and that a**these parties are Muslim extremists, Salafis and
     drug dealers,a** adding that such parties aim to destabilize Syria.

     The Syrian official also slammed Turkey following its recent statements
     on the Syrian situation and said that a**no one has the righta** to
     interfere in Syrian affairs.

     Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday that Ankara
     a**will not stay silenta** on Syria.

     Asked about UN reports that 3,000 have been killed since anti-regime
     protests began in mid-March, Moqdad said: a**Some international
     organizations have lost their credibility because they see events with
     one eye. These organizations failed to mention that Syria has lost 1,150
     security and army members.a**

     This is a day old, but was included in Grinstead's intsum this morning.
     Just want people to see it so that everyone knows that technically,
     Syria has not yet violated the terms of the AL agreement. They have two
     more weeks of killing spree allowed before they will technically be in
     violation.
     They're planning to hold the negotiations in Cairo, too, according to
     the AL deputy sec gen. Over the next week or so we should see
     preparations made for who exactly is going to attend. [BP]
     Arab League gives Syria 15 days to implement proposal
     Nov 3, 2011, 22:05 GMT
     http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/middleeast/news/article_1672949.php/Arab-League-gives-Syria-15-days-to-implement-proposal
     Cairo - Arab League Deputy Secretary-General Ahmad Ben Hali said
     Thursday that Syrian authorities have 15 days to implement provisions of
     an Arab League peace proposal before dialogue can kick off between the
     regime and the opposition.
     'The Arab League proposal is still in its initial stage,' Ben Hali told
     the Dubai-based Al Arabiya television.
     He added that dialogue between Syrian authorities and the opposition
     'will take place at the Arab League's headquarters and under its
     auspices.'
     Syria on Wednesday fully accepted an Arab League plan to end nearly
     eight months of bloodshed in the country, but on Thursday Syrian
     security forces killed 20 people and wounded 50 others in a new wave of
     crackdown against pro-democracy protesters.
     The Arab League plan forsees a complete halt to the violence, the
     release of protesters who have been detained since February, the
     withdrawal of forces from areas where there have been armed clashes, and
     granting access to delegates from the 22-member body and the
     international media.
     More than 3,000 people have been killed, among them 187 children, in the
     clampdown the Syrian government has been carrying out against protesters
     since the uprising started in mid-March, according to UN estimates.

     Arab League says Syria approves Arab plan
     Wed Nov 2, 2011 4:29pm GMT
      http://af.reuters.com/article/egyptNews/idAFWEA102020111102?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=egyptNews&amp;utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FAfricaEgyptNews+%28News+%2F+Africa+%2F+Egypt+News%29&amp;utm_content=Google+Reader&amp;sp=true

     CAIRO Nov 2 (Reuters) - The Arab League said on Wednesday the Syrian
     government had approved an Arab plan for dialogue with the opposition
     and steps to end seven months of bloodshed, according to a League
     statement released during a ministerial meeting in Cairo.

     "The Arab League welcomes the Syrian government's agreement to the Arab
     plan," the statement said, adding that it "emphasised the need for the
     immediate, full and exact implementation of the articles in the plan."

     "The Arab committee (overseeing the plan) is responsible for submitting
     periodic reports to the ministerial council of the Arab League on the
     progress of carrying out the plan," it said. (Reporting by Ayman Samir;
     Writing by Edmund Blair)

     All of the Asharq al awsat articles that are talking about Turkey
     perhaps preparing a buffer article reference comments Davutoglu made

     I am pretty sure they are talking about this FT interview from Nov 1.
     See bolded part

     Turkey hardens stance against Syria

     November 1, 2011 5:11 pm
     http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f1438150-049e-11e1-ac2a-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1d82Vwk3y
     By Daniel Dombey in Istanbul

     Turkey has signalled possible support for a buffer zone to protect
     Syrian civilians if Damascus continues its crackdown on democracy
     protests, as tensions rise between the two former strategic partners.

     Ahmet Davutoglu, Turkeya**s foreign minister, told the Financial Times
     that Ankara was preparing targeted sanctions against Damascus and left
     the door open for more drastic steps at a later date, such as a buffer
     zone or a no fly-zone on Syrian territory.

     a**The Syrian regime is attacking the Syrian people, which is
     unacceptable,a** Mr Davutoglu said in an interview. a**When we see such
     an event next door to us of course we will never be silent.a**

     When asked about Turkeya**s stance on a buffer zone or a no-fly zone, he
     said: a**We hope that there will be no need for these type of measures
     but of course humanitarian issues are importanta*|There are certain
     universal values all of us need to respect and protecting citizens is
     the responsibility of every state.a**
     His comments are an indication of the growing pressure Turkey is putting
     on Syria, on the rhetorical level at least, to halt the crackdown.

     By contrast, in August Turkish officials rejected reports they were
     planning to impose a buffer zone, while Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Natoa**s
     secretary general, dismissed the idea of a no-fly zone this week.

     Turkeya**s position is important because the country cultivated closer
     ties with Damascus until this year and is now taking an active role in
     reaching out to the Syrian opposition.

     Speaking at the Turkish parliament on Tuesday, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
     Turkeya**s prime minister, praised the Syrian protests as a**gloriousa**
     and expressed his belief that they would succeed.

     Ankaraa**s tougher approach has been greatly welcomed by the US, which
     has been leading calls for Bashar al-Assad, Syrian president, to leave
     power.

     On Tuesday Syrian state television announced that a final agreement had
     been reached between the Syrian government and an Arab League committee
     working to find a solution that could end the unrest, although it did
     not provide any details. The US said it welcomed any international
     efforts to end the violence in Syria, but reiterated its call for Mr
     Assad to step down.

     Although in the interview Mr Davutoglu denied claims that Turkey allowed
     armed Syrian rebels to operate from its territory, last week he became
     one of the first international officials to meet leaders of the
     Istanbul-based opposition Syrian national council.

     Mr Erdogan is also likely to visit Syrian refugee camps in Turkey in the
     near future, and could announce further sanctions against Damascus when
     he does. The trip had previously been scheduled for last month, but was
     postponed because of the death of Mr Erdogana**s mother.

     Although Mr Davutoglu said Turkish sanctions against Syria would be
     targeted rather than broad, any unilateral steps would mark a change of
     tack for Turkey, which has long depicted sanctions against its
     neighbours as both ineffective and damaging to its own economy.

     a**We have always been against sanctions, economic sanctions which will
     harm people,a** Mr Davutoglu said. a**But certain measures [that] have
     an impact on a regime fighting against its own people are different.a**

     Mr Davutoglu also rejected a claim by Mr Assad that western intervention
     in Syria could turn the country into another Afghanistan.

     a**[To compare] Syria to Afghanistan would mean implicitly to accept
     that it is a failed state, which is not true,a** he said. a**There is a
     state continuing in Syria; the important thing is how the leaders of
     this state are acting.a** He added that the correct analogy was with
     eastern Europe in the 1980s and early 1990s and warned Mr Assad:
     a**Those leaders who do not understand this correctly will lose
     power.a**

     Turkey: Wea**ve intercepted 3 Syria-bound weapons shipments from Iran
     Turkey reportedly planning buffer zone along border with Syria
     07/11/2011

     By Tha'ir Abbas
     http://www.asharq-e.com/news.asp?section=1&amp;id=27239

     London, Asharq Al-Awsat- The situations in Syria entered a new stage
     yesterday with signs of Arab-international-regional manoeuvrings
     emerging, which could lead to fundamental changes in the handling of the
     Syrian crisis.

     Next to the extraordinary session that the Arab initiative committee
     will hold next Saturday to discuss the Syrian Government's failure to
     implement its obligations which it accepted in the Arab action plan for
     resolving the Syrian crisis, sources in the Syrian opposition have
     disclosed they have received promises that the UN Security Council
     [UNSC] will hold a session after the Arab meeting to discuss a UN
     resolution to send international observers to Syria while Turkey has
     expressed its "readiness and ability" to establish a buffer zone on
     condition of getting an "Arab and international cover."

     Turkish sources have told Asharq Al-Awsat that Ankara is coordinating on
     a a**high-levela** with both Qatar that chairs the Arab initiative and
     with the Arab League [AL] and Washington. They said Turkey was going to
     announce several sanctions in a message that Turkish Prime Minister
     Recep Tayyib Erdogan was scheduled to address to the Syrians during his
     inspection of their camps inside Turkey but that was postponed "so as to
     make room for the Arab initiative and see what results it will have."
     But the sources pointed out that "with the escalation in the situation
     and the stalling of the initiative, Turkey might raise the (sanctions)
     issue again." They added that Turkey was holding contacts with the UNSC
     member countries that are still hesitant, especially Brazil and South
     Africa which have very close ties with Turkey, in order to persuade them
     to take a different stand.

     The Turkish sources disclosed that Ankara has imposed what could be
     described as sanctions on Damascus, like its total ban on the entry of
     weapons to Syria, this includes stopping three previous shipments from
     Iran, in addition to "the careful examination" of particular banking
     transfers to businessmen loyal to the regime so as to pressure and
     prevent them from supporting it. They cited Turkish Foreign Minister
     Ahmet Davutoglu about his country's readiness to impose a buffer zone
     all along the borders to protect the civilians and stressing that his
     country "has the readiness and ability to impose the buffer zone but we
     need an Arab and international cover."

     Meanwhile, sources in the Syrian opposition have told Asharq Al-Awsat
     they have received promises of holding a new UNSC session this week
     whose agenda will include a draft resolution to send a team of observers
     to Syria. They pointed out that the mission of the "blue berets" would
     be to watch the Syrian violations and hence protect the demonstrators
     from the daily killings.

     On his part, Radwan Ziyadah, member of the Syrian National Council, told
     Asharq Al-Awsat that the AL's next meeting on Saturday could be decisive
     "because the regime has been given three chances so far and squandered
     them all. I believe this is enough to force the hesitant countries to
     take a stand." He pointed out that "it is obvious that the Syrian regime
     will not stop the killings but on the contrary, it is using all the
     army's firing power in shelling the cities" and added: "Things will be
     better if it (the AL) takes the right decision, demands international
     protection, and authorizes the UNSC to take the appropriate resolution.
     It will then be impossible for Russia and China to use the (veto) or
     even abstain from voting." He said "it would be a mockery and ridiculous
     for the AL to give the regime more chances after all it has done" and
     noted in return that the Syrian opposition's contacts with AL Secretary
     General Nabil Elaraby "showed an unusual seriousness" in addition to the
     opposition's contacts with countries Ziyadah described as "hesitant"
     such as Sudan and Algeria which "showed a change in stands."

     Leader of Free Syrian Army says not receiving arms from Turkey

     Text of report by Turkish newspaper Milliyet website on 7 November

     [Interview with Colonel Riyad al-Asad of Free Syria Army in Antakya by
     Asli Aydintasbas: "Riyad al-Asad versus Beshar al-Asad"]

     Colonel Riyad al-Asad runs the Free Syria Army, which is undertaking the
     armed struggle against the Syria regime, from within a camp in Antakya.
     The colonel boasts: "We have 22 units and 15,000 soldiers in Syria."

     Opponent who have left the army are pleased with Turkey's support, but
     unhappy that they are unable to get weapons. Riyad al-Asad says: "There
     are officers inside who do not want to open fire on civilians. There
     should at least be a buffer zone for them."

     Up until now the popular uprising that has been going on in Syria since
     March has not had one known face or voice or leader.

     However, the Free Syria Army, which is made up of officers who left the
     Syrian army in recent weeks has suddenly gained the entire world's
     attention through its armed actions against Beshar al-Asad's regime and
     because of the statements is making abroad.

     The rebellion began in Dera on 8 March and has continued across the
     country with 4,000 people being killed and tens of thousands being
     arrested. So, has it moved one step beyond being a street protest and
     become an armed resistance?

     In order to get an answer to this question we went to Antakya to speak
     with the officers of the Free Syria Army, which has begun an armed
     resistance against Beshar al-Asad and which has been making its voice
     heard just recently.

     Colonel Riyad al-Asad fled the Syrian army and sought asylum in Turkey
     when the uprisings began, and is the leader of the Free Syria Army.
     Claiming to be engaging in guerrilla action against the regime all over
     Syria, the movement is coordinated by two separate units deployed one in
     Antakya and one on the Lebanon-Syria border.

     A Very Special Camp

     The Free Syria Army (OSO) in Antakya is deployed in a 70-person camp
     holding a few colonels, captains and army families, and which is
     protected by the Turkish army. (There are other civilian camps in the
     same area housing thousands of refugees from Syria.)

     Ankara had given up hope in Damascus when Beshar al-Asad bloodily
     quelled the Syrian people's demands, and insists that its protection of
     the officers or civilians who fled from Syria is for "humanitarian
     reasons." The officials and regime opponents I spoke to stressed there
     were no weapons at the camp and that no weapon training was being given.
     To date, there have been no hit-and-run attacks into Syria from Turkey.
     However, the camps are being tightly protected by Turkey because of the
     consternation the OSO is causing in Damascus.

     A Slim, Smiling Colonel

     Colonel Al-Asad, whom we met at a secret location on a rainy day in
     Antakya, came to the meeting accompanied by the close protection team
     the Turkish authorities had given him. The colonel is in constant
     danger.

     I made many interviews with Saddam's opponents who had fled the Iraqi
     army and with Peshmerga commanders fighting Saddam in northern Iraq back
     in the 1990s. I know the "opposition" fabric in this region very well
     indeed. That is why I have to say I was surprised to see not a mustached
     commander with a pot belly but a slim, unassuming and smiling face
     before me.

     During the long interview we made through an interpreter we discussed
     the conditions in the Syrian army, the colonel's breath-taking escape to
     Turkey and the armed actions he had undertaken in Syria.

     Let me state now that opponents all over the world always embellish when
     they speak. It is hard to believe that Colonel Al-Asad is running the
     15,000-stong militia groups conducting a guerrilla war in Syria using a
     simple Nokia cell phone and Skype on a sluggish internet connection.

     Ankara, while protecting the Free Syria Army, is not giving it
     permission to form a base of armed operations within Turkey. In fact,
     these is why some officers grew fed up with sitting in Antakya and
     watching events from afar, and have returned to Syria in order to
     continue "fighting."

     There Is Embellishment And Truth Alike

     However, this tale does have an element of truth to it. It is entirely
     true that there are serious numbers leaving the Syrian army, that
     officers and soldiers unwilling to bear arms against the people are
     seeking a place of refuge, and that despite all the difficulties the OSO
     has become a legend within the country. It is also true that some
     soldiers refused to fire and that they have begun to conduct amateurish
     attacks in small groups.

     In the end, the demise of the regime in Syria might not come at the
     hands of the colonel in a business suit sitting across from me, but at
     the hands of someone else entirely, or as a result of completely
     different dynamics. However, when it does come the Free Syria Army will
     have a role and a function, large or small, in the tale.

     What Colonel Al-Asad knows very well indeed is that the world public,
     still not used to the speed of the Arab Spring, is exceedingly cautious
     about an adventure in Syria. The West has not yet "pressed the button"
     for the toppling of Beshar al-Asad's regime. The clearest indicator of
     this is the lack of American, French or British officials coming and
     going to the camp in Antakya. Even though Washington might occasionally
     interject saying, "Al-Asad should go" there are no sanctions against
     Syria and no steps towards creating a "buffer zone." But this does not
     necessarily mean that the issue, which will be placed on the world's
     agenda again when the prime minister goes to Hatay in the coming weeks,
     will not take on a completely different colour in 2012.

     Why Are The Kurds Not Joining In The Protests?

     The Syrian Kurds living in the Qamishlo region had remained distant from
     the protests that were shaking up the rest of the country, right up
     until Syrian Kurd leader Mi'shal Temo was assassinated last month. The
     first things the regime did when the protests began was to give the some
     of the Syria Kurds "ID card" and citizenship rights, which had been
     denied them for 50 years. After this, both the PKK and the KDP
     [Kurdistan Democracy Party] lead by Mas'ud Barzani, who has some weight
     in Qamishlo, told the Kurds to "stay silent." We asked Col Al-Asad why
     the Kurds were not taking part in the attacks:

     "The Kurds have been very shy when it comes to taking part in the
     demonstrations. When the protests began the regime made some pledges to
     the Kurdish groups and gave 50,000 Kurds ID cards. The PKK told its
     supporters there not to hold any demonstrations against the regime. In
     fact, a known cleric of Kurdish origins (Ramazan Buti) was sent to
     Aleppo. But the atmosphere is changing."

     Bashar al-Asad Will Only Be Removed By War, Not Persuasion

     Colonel Al-Asad surprised me when he said they supported the offer made
     to the Syrian administration by the Arab League and that this was why
     they put their attacks on hold for a time. I assumed this caution might
     have come from Ankara. However, Riyad al-Asad does not think that an
     accord can be reached with Syria: "Bashar al-Asad will leave only
     through combat, not through persuasion. The Arab League gave Al-Asad an
     opportunity. But since then they killed 20 people in Humus. There are
     thousands of detentions in Damascus, again. If he had really been honest
     he would have complied with the Arab League and withdrawn his tanks from
     the towns. But he knows his government will fall the moment he does
     this. He has been running the country for 11 years. If he were going to
     enact reforms he would have done so by now. Seeing that the people adore
     him he should let it go and let the foreign press into the country."

     Only Intelligence And Special Teams Being Targeted

     [Aydintasbas] How many people are there in your group?

     [Al-Asad] We have 22 separate units deployed in every region in Syria.
     Approximately 15,000 soldiers. We have telephone communications with
     every unit. S ome of the demonstrations recently have shouted slogans
     for us. We have carried out many actions against the army. Some of our
     ranking colleagues here have gone back to take charge of the units
     there.

     [Aydintasbas] What kind of actions are you carrying out against the
     army?

     [Al-Asad] We call on the officers not to point their guns at people and
     to leave the army immediately. We are only targeting the Muhaberat
     (intelligence) and the special units known as Shabiba. We are not
     targeting private soldiers or the regular army. We generally employ
     guerrilla tactics because we do not have the heavy weapons for a
     straight up fight. We set ambushed. We have a great resistance in
     Rastan, and in other places too. We killed 10 officers in the past week.

     No Weapons From Turkey. We Wish There Were!

     [Aydintasbas] What is the situation in the Syrian army?

     [Al-Asad] The Muhaberat completely controls the army. It is said we are
     defending the country from outside or Israeli-backed gangs. Some
     officers who refused to fire on the people were killed. (He lists
     names.) There are units that fled like we did or that fire into the air
     rather than kill people when sent to put down the protests.

     [Aydintasbas] Where do you get your weapons from?

     [Al-Asad] The forces within the country are already armed. We are able
     to get weapons inside.

     [Aydintasbas] What about Turkey?

     [Al-Asad] No. If only. Turkey is the only country that has opened its
     borders to us but Turkey is wary about giving us weapons. The New York
     Times wrote we were getting weapon training here, but that is not true.

     The Free Syria Army was formed by officers who fled the army rather than
     fire on demonstrators in Syria. They claim to be using guerrilla tactics
     inside Syria.

     The group's leaders live in Antakya and in Lebanon. Their strength might
     be over-exaggerated but their existence is enough to create panic in
     Damascus.

     Al-Asad Says All Opponents Are Islamists -We Are Not

     [Aydintasbas] How did you get out of Syria?

     [Al-Asad] I have been in the army for 31 years. I was most recently
     serving in Idlib Province on the border. When the demonstrations began
     we received instructions saying, "Be alert. There are Israeli-backed
     armed groups in the country." We were told to protect the country from
     armed gangs. Yet, these were protests calling for reforms and freedoms.
     When the protests spread nationwide the Sunni officers such as myself
     came under a lot of pressure.

     We were always being summoned to the Muhaberat centre in Aleppo. When
     demonstrations began in the town where I was born they grew really
     suspicious. I was questioned. I was instantly transferred from Idlib to
     Hama, and I knew I would be killed if I did not run.

     A few other officers under suspicion had been murdered in transit. I
     took my family and came to the border.

     [Aydintasbas] Bashar al-Asad told the Daily Telepgraph that the fighting
     in Syria was between Islamists and Arab nationalists. Are you an
     Islamist?

     [Al-Asad] No, I am not. The regime calls all opponents Islamist. But
     Al-Asad is not killing Islamists. He is killing the people.

     [Aydintasbas] But are you from the Muslim Brotherhood?

     [Al-Asad] I have nothing at all to do with them. At none of the
     demonstrations in the country has even one Ihvan (Muslim Brotherhood)
     placard been unfurled. The Syrian people are one. And we all want
     democracy under the Syrian flag. We would prefer to be like Turkey, both
     Muslim and a secular democracy. Regardless whether those in charge are
     secular or Islamist, the Arab people will no longer accept a tyrannical
     regime.

     [Aydintasbas] There is a fear that if the regime in Syria falls then the
     Nusayrians will be slaughtered.

     [Al-Asad] Never. That idea is being propagated by the regime. There are
     Nusayrians and Kurds too.

     [Aydintasbas] So, are there any Nusayrians in the Free Syria Army?

     [Al-As ad] No, we are all Sunni.

     We Want A No Fly Zone

     [Aydintasbas] Just recently the Syrians have been calling for No Fly
     Zones during the demonstrations. What good would that do?

     [Al-Asad] We also want a buffer zone and no fly zone along the border
     with Turkey because Al-Asad's regime can only be brought down through
     power and brute force, not through persuasion. There are many officers
     and soldiers ready to leave the army and who we have spoken with. But
     they have nowhere to go. They know they will be destroyed without a
     special safe area. Look, our resistance in Rastan held out for four
     days. For four days the tanks could not enter the city. They only
     managed to enter because of the air strikes. There were 150 dead. Our
     resistance lost two of its 12 officers. Yet, had there been a no fly
     zone the regime could never have taken the town.

     Source: Milliyet website, Istanbul, in Turkish 7 Nov 11

     BBC Mon EU1 EuroPol ME1 MEPol 071111 em/osc

    Syrian army defectors to resume operations against regime's forces       
                                                                             
    Text of report by Saudi-owned leading pan-Arab daily Al-Sharq al-Awsat   
    website on 5 November                                                    
                                                                             
    [Report by Caroline Akum in Beirut: "Colonel Al-As'ad to 'Al-Sharq       
    al-Awsat': We Will Resume Our Operations Against Regime's Forces After   
    its Intentions Were Exposed. Split Among National Council's Members Over 
    Coorperation with Free Syrian Army"]                                     
                                                                             
    Defecting Colonel Riyad al-As'ad, commander of the "Free Syrian Army",   
    has declared to Al-Sharq al-Awsat that his army will resume the          
    "qualitative" military operations against [Syrian President Bashar]      
    Al-Asad's forces after the "regime's intentions" were exposed during     
    "the God is Great Friday."                                               
                                                                             
    The Free Syrian Army suspended its operations on Wednesday night to give 
    the Arab [League] initiative the chance to succeed. Al-As'ad said in a   
    telephone contact "we gave the Syrian regime a chance of two days after  
    it announced its acceptance of the Arab initiative so as to expose its   
    lies and manoeuvres. From today and following the exposure of its        
    intentions on (God is Great Friday), we will resume carrying out         
    qualitative military operations and our movements are going to be bigger 
    and wider."                                                              
                                                                             
    Al-As'ad denied the report by the Daily Telegraph about his plan for the 
    Free Syrian Army to be the military wing of the Syrian opposition to     
    President Bashar al-Asad's regime and said "we refuse to be followers of 
    any party. I will form a military council as soon as possible."          
                                                                             
    Asked if there was any coordination about these operations with the      
    Syrian National Council whose members refuse to militarize the           
    revolution, he pointed out that there were no contacts at the leadership 
    level but at the level of specific persons. He added: "We have defected  
    from the Syrian army and have the right to defend ourselves and our      
    people militarily. Anyone who thinks that this Syrian regime will        
    collapse peacefully is deluded. This is why we refuse to keep the        
    revolution peaceful. I will establish a military national council at the 
    earliest possible time and we will have our own programme which we will  
    announce at the time." He stressed that "the defections are increasing   
    daily and I can confirm that we have passed the 15,000 number."          
                                                                             
    Asked if there was military coordination with the Turkish authorities,   
    he said "there is no security coordination with Turkey and the support   
    the authorities is giving us is limited to humanitarian aid in addition  
    of course to protecting our security and the Syrian people's security."  
                                                                             
    The British Daily Telegraph had reported [LINK HERE; NOV. 3 ARTICLE]     
    that Al-As'ad was living under permanent protection from the security    
    officials in Ankara and noted that the high level of human losses in the 
    Syrian security forces' ranks as a result of internal attacks confirms   
    the presence of armed forces operating with the secret approval of the   
    authorities. The paper cited Al-As'ad as saying that the Free Syrian     
    Army's members are armed with weapons and ammunition stolen from the     
    regime, are protecting the boundaries of the opposition towns and        
    villages, and are attacking the soldiers firing on peaceful              
    demonstrators. The paper added, also quoting Al-As'ad, "we are waiting   
    for the Syrian National Council to appoint a high-level delegation and   
    send a representative to talk to us about supporting their objectives    
    militarily."                                                             
                                                                             
    On the other hand, National Council member Umar al-Idlibi has told       
    Al-Sharq al-Awsat that the question of the council's relationship with   
    the Free Syrian Army is widely discussed by the members and the results  
    would be announced within few days, particularly as some of them refuse  
    to deal with it on the basis of "maintaining the purity of the           
    revolution", which he considered "an ideal but inapplicable viewpoint."  
                                                                             
    But Council member Jabr al-Shufi denied the existence of any             
    coordination between it and the Free Syrian Army's command and told      
    Al-Sharq al-Awsat: "There is no coordination between the Free Syrian     
    Army and us and we do not have any connections with any operations it is 
    carrying out on the ground because we reject the militarization of the   
    revolution though we support these defections on condition that they are 
    made on the basis of the peaceful revolution." Regarding the Daily       
    Telegraph's report that Al-As'ad was planning to make his army the       
    military wing of the Syrian opposition, Al-Shufi asserted that "the      
    Council has not adopted this army or a ny wing in it." As to the         
    possibility of coordination with Al-As'ad in the next stage, he said:    
    "Channels of communications could be opened with him if he agrees and    
    complies with our basic conditions, namely, the non-militarization of    
    the revolution and keeping it as peaceful as it started because we are   
    fully convi! nced that turning the revolution into a military one will   
    make it lose its broad base and provide the regime with an additional    
    pretext to use us against us and the demonstrators." He added: "We       
    support their use of arms if they are defending themselves, houses, and  
    citizens but we reject categorically any military attack or operation    
    because this is inconsistent with our objectives and approaches on which 
    the peaceful revolution is based."                                       
                                                                             
    Source: Al-Sharq al-Awsat website, London, in Arabic 5 Nov 11            
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEEauosc 051111 pk                                           

              A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011
     This Saudi media report is saying that Erdogan was going to visit the
     Antakya region (right on the Syrian border), but had to postpone it
     because of the PKK troubles and the subsequent Turkish military
     operation in N. Iraq. He will apparently reschedule his visit for after
     the Eid holidays.
     Does anyone here know Ersat Hurmuzlu? He is described as Gul's chief
     advisor, and he said some vague things Nov. 2 about Turkey preparing to
     take "measures" against Syria.
     The bolded part in the second to last para is potentially the most
     important, but like always, is a Saudi claim that doesn't cite anyone
     specifically from within the Syrian opposition. Read what they're
     claiming the Turks have promised Erdogan will deliver when he does make
     his visit to Antakya. That is some bigtime shit.

    Syrian opposition say Turkey "promised"' to arm dissidents, boycott      
    regime                                                                   
                                                                             
    Text of report by Saudi-owned leading pan-Arab daily Al-Sharq al-Awsat   
    website on 3 November                                                    
                                                                             
    [Report by Tha'ir Abbas in London: "Turkish official tells Al-Sharq      
    al-Awsat: We will take measures to protect the Syrian civilians and stop 
    the use of violence; Syrian opposition sources talk about Turkish        
    promises to establish a buffer zone, arm the dissidents, and boycott the 
    regime"]                                                                 
                                                                             
    Turkey has regained its hard-line tone against the Syrian regime         
    following a period of "anticipation" imposed by the successive           
    developments in the region. As Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip       
    Erdogan returns the Syrian file to the forefront of Turkey's priorities, 
    his close associates tell Al-Sharq al-Awsat that the expectations in     
    Turkey indicate that Ankara is on the verge of preparing for a higher    
    ceiling of statements and actions against Syria. Sources in the Turkish  
    prime minister's office have said that Erdogan did not make his expected 
    visit to the Antakya region due to the events that imposed "other        
    concerns". This was a reference to the attacks that the Kurdistan        
    Workers' Party perpetrated and the large-scale military operation that   
    the Turkish forces launched in northern Iraq. The sources pointed out    
    that Erdogan's visit to Antakya region to review the living conditions   
    of the Syrian "guests" in the Turkish camps has been deferred, not       
    cancelled. ! The sources went on to say that a new date for this visit   
    will be set after Erdogan returns from his two visits to Germany and     
    France and after the Id al-Adha holiday.                                 
                                                                             
    Ersat Hurmuzlu, the Turkish president's chief adviser, stated yesterday  
    [ 2 November] that his country will take "measures" regarding Syria,     
    adding that compliance with international sanctions imposed on the       
    Syrian regime are not subject to discussion. Hurmuzlu told Al-Sharq      
    al-Awsat that his country "will take measures to protect the Syrian      
    civilians and to stop the use of violence". However, he declined to go   
    into details but promised that the Turkish prime minister will announce  
    these measures in the name of the Turkish government. Hurmuzlu said that 
    his country "did all it can to expedite reforms in Syria; however, it    
    has lost hope because the Syrian leadership has chosen the principle of  
    violence and bloodshed". Hurmuzlu pointed out that his country was the   
    first to call for dialogue between the regime and the opposition. He     
    went on to say: "Why not if the new Arab initiative responds to the      
    demands of the Syrian people and guarantees the sparing of more !        
    bloodshed". He emphasized that the "legitimate demands of the Syrian     
    people should be met. The decision is in the hands of the Syrian         
    people". Syrian opposition sources disclosed to Al-Sharq al-Awsat        
    yesterday that Ankara promised the Syrian opposition to take four steps  
    that Erdogan will announce during his visits: Turkey will sever all      
    relations with the Syrian regime, will join the total and comprehensive  
    boycott of Al-Asad's regime, arm the Free Syrian Army, support the       
    establishment of a buffer zone in northern Syria, and help the Syrian    
    opposition on the international level regarding the demand of            
    international protection.                                                
                                                                             
    Hurmuzlu answered a question related to remarks made by Buthaynah        
    Sha'ban, the Syrian president's adviser, who talked about "Turkish       
    promises to issue passports to the Syrian refugees on Turkey's soil".    
    Hurmuzlu replied: "This is categorically incorrect. We consider these    
    civilians as guests, not refugees that. The circumstances in their       
    country drove them to seek asylum; they are free to return to their      
    country". Answering another remark by Sha'ban on why the refugees fled   
    from Idlib to Turkey instead of to Aleppo that is closer, Hurmuzlu said  
    that the security conditions forced them to take this step. He added:    
    "Seeking asylum in Turkey by the refugees was by choice. We did not ask  
    them to come to Turkey and we did not force them to return or to stay".  
    He emphasized that his country is treating its guests "will all          
    respect". He added that the Turkish authorities launched a vaccination   
    campaign among the refugees against Hepatitis and conducted a full       
    survey ! of the medical conditions of the more than 7,000 refugees.      
    Hurmuzlu concluded that the Syrian regime's remarks that the refugees    
    are being exploited are totally unjustified.                             
                                                                             
    Source: Al-Sharq al-Awsat website, London, in Arabic 3 Nov 11            
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEEauosc 051111/da                                           

              A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

     Russia urges support for Arab League peace plan on Syria
     Topic: Protests in Syria

     MOSCOW, November 7 (RIA Novosti)

     http://en.rian.ru/russia/20111107/168493117.html
      
     Russiaa**s Foreign Ministry called on Monday for international backing
     for an Arab League peace plan for Syria.
     Under the plan, Syria would release political prisoners detained during
     the ongoing conflict, and all military equipment would be removed from
     urban areas.
     Syria would also be obliged to allow Arab League and world media
     representatives into the country, as well as guarantee them free
     passage.
     a**The implementation of these measures and other provisions stipulated
     in the Arab Leaguea**s initiative paves the way for a constructive and
     detailed dialogue between the Syrian authorities and the opposition with
     the aim of putting the situation on the road to reconciliation and
     reformations without any foreign involvement,a** the Russian ministry
     said in a statement.
     Syria formally adopted the plan on November 2, but the Syrian opposition
     rejected it, saying it would not enter a dialogue with the current
     authorities.
     According to UN estimates, more than 3,000 people have been killed in
     Syria since mid-March, when first anti-regime protests began.

     I'm only sending this because it is a Saudi attempt to hype some sort of
     budding cooperation between the Libyan revolutionaries and the Syrian
     opposition. Note that they did not out any names of the Syrians that
     supposedly met with the Libyans. It is also not surprising at all for me
     to see that the Libyan they quote is Abdullah Naker. He is seriously
     butt buddies with the Asharq people; we mentioned him in our Libya piece
     - he's one of those who hates Belhaj with a passion.
     Syrian opposition seeks to emulate Libya's NTC in bid to oust Al-Asad
     Text of report by Saudi-owned leading pan-Arab daily Al-Sharq al-Awsat
     website on 3 November
     [Report by Khalid Mahmud in Cairo: "The Syrian council seeks to emulate
     the Libyan Model against Al-Asad's regime; Tripoli Revolutionary Council
     chairman to Al-Sharq al-Awsat: We will offer our expertise to Syrians to
     overthrow the Syrian regime"]
     The Syrian Transitional Council [STC], which is opposed to President
     Bashar al-Asad's regime, yesterday [2 November] seemed to be seeking to
     emulate the scenario of its Libyan counterpart against the late Col
     Mu'ammar al-Qadhafi. An STC delegation held semi-secret talks with
     representatives of various Libyan national forces and of the
     Transitional National Council [TNC] aimed at securing military and
     logistical support to enable demonstrators in Syria to stand up to
     Al-Asad's regime's brutal suppression.
     The STC delegation met with a number of Libyan revolutionary leaders,
     commanders of security brigades, as well as TNC officials in the Libyan
     capital Tripoli and in other Libyan cities. They sought to secure Libyan
     revolutionaries' support to STC's attempts to overthrow Al-Asad's
     regime.
     After meeting with the STC delegation, Abdallah Nakir al-Zintani,
     chairman of the Tripoli Revolutionary Council [NOTE: This guy was
     mentioned in our big Libya piece; hates Belhaj], told Al-Sharq al-Awsat
     that the Syrian delegation requested military and material aid as well
     as advice on how to confront the suppressive actions that the Syrian
     authorities commit against unarmed demonstrators in various Syrian
     cities. He added: "Naturally, they requested all sorts of aid they can
     get - -weapons, funds, combatants. We believe that the international
     community and the Arab countries should help the Syrian demonstrators'
     efforts to rid themselves of Al-Asad's regime." Al-Zintani noted that
     the Libyan revolutionaries sympathize with their Syrian brethren as they
     face systematic killing aimed at foiling the popular revolution against
     the ruling regime in Syria. He stressed that all the Syrian regime's
     methods to subjugate the demonstrators are doomed to failure.
     Al-Zintani added: "Our advice to him (Syrian President Bashar al-Asad)
     is that he should quit and voluntarily give up power instead of
     eventually finding himself tormented, humiliated, before getting killed
     like Al-Qadhafi." He said that the huge military machine that Al-Qadhafi
     had did not succeed in saving his regime from the Libyan people's
     overwhelming revolution against him. He added: "I think the same applies
     to Syria. Eventually, weapons will not succeed in subjecting the people
     who have taken to the streets in Syria. Suppression, torture, and
     killing will not terrorize the Syrian people. The Syrian president
     should learn a lesson from what happened around him in Egypt, Tunisia,
     and Libya."
     Al-Zintani said that he believed the Syrian president should show some
     wisdom and spare himself and his people torment, and avoid making them
     pay a heavy human and material price to get rid of him and his political
     regime. He added: "He must stop killing and promptly decide to quit, as
     Tunisian President Zine Elabidine Ben Ali did. Weapons and killing will
     not enable him to stay in power for ever against the Syrian people's
     will; this is absurd and he must stop."
     Al-Zintani said that the sympathy displayed by the Libyan
     revolutionaries for their Syrian brethren is quite justified because the
     conditions in both countries are similar to some extent. He said: "We
     started with peaceful demonstrations, which soon turned into
     confrontations, forcing us to stand up to Al-Qadhafi's regime, his
     security brigades, and military forces. The same thing is now happening
     in various parts of Syria. People take to the streets with bare chests
     while the regime opens fire at them to kill without seeking
     understanding." He urged the international community and the Arab
     countries to help the Syrian people in every way possible to prevent
     further carnage.
     Al-Zintani added: "We explained our experience to the Syrian delegation
     members on how to secure the support of the Arab countries, the
     international community, NATO, and the US Administration, and briefed
     them on our recent, modest experience." Al-Zintani stressed that through
     the TNC, the Libyan people should help their Syrian brethren to rid
     themselves of Al-Asad's regime. He said: "He (the Syrian president) has
     to understand that the Syrian people have awakened, and that they will
     not accept a continuation of any further humiliation. Nothing will
     protect him from the Syrian people's revolt except quitting and putting
     an end to his regime."
     Al-Zintani said: "We do not introduce ourselves as custodians of the
     Arab spring revolts. We only offer our experience to anyone who requests
     it, particularly because it is the newest experience in contemporary
     Arab history, and shows how we disposed of a tyrant like Al-Qadhafi." He
     said: "There is a strong similarity between what is happening in Syria
     and what happened in Libya. The thugs in Syrian streets are like the
     former members of the revolutionary committees and security brigades in
     Libya. Also, there are tribes and tribal mingling in Syria as are there
     in Libya."
     The Libyan TNC's recognition of the legitimacy of its Syrian counterpart
     against Syrian President Bashar al-Asad's regime is the first in the
     Arab region and the Middle East. In February, the Libyan people made
     their decisive choice early on the need for the imposition of a no-fly
     zone against Al-Qadhafi's regime, seeking NATO assistance to prevent
     Al-Qadhafi's forces from killing civilians and destroying the
     infrastructure of most Libyan cities. The Syrian opposition leaders,
     however, are still at odds among themselves over seeking assistance from
     NATO or other foreign parties.
     The Syrian oppositionists fear the prospect that the ruling regime in
     Damascus may exploit their resort to NATO help to defame them and
     shuffle the cards among the local people. However, as the killing
     escalates daily in various Syrian cities, the Syrian opposition leaders
     abroad seem to be reconsidering their calculations and repeat the Libyan
     scenario.
     In a statement to Al-Sharq al-Awsat, A Libyan TNC official said:
     "Certainly we are ready to assist our brethren in Syria, but the
     question is how and when." This official, who asked not to be
     identified, was referring to several technical difficulties that hamper
     shipping the aid required by the Syrian revolutionaries, notably the
     distance between the two countries and the unavailability of Libyan
     ships to transport weapons, let alone the fact that the Syrian regime is
     capable of preventing ships from docking at Syrian ports. Some Syrians
     consider Turkey as a destination for foreign aid to be transported later
     across the Turkish-Syrian border to Syrian territory.
     In his remarks to Al-Sharq al-Awsat, this Libyan official said: "These
     logistical hindrances can be overcome if an international and regional
     network is established for the purpose of transporting aid to Syria, a
     task that will be difficult, very costly, and fraught with danger."
     The Libyans do not forget that President Al-Asad's regime adopted a
     hostile stand on their popular revolution, which erupted against
     Al-Qadhafi on 17 February. Libyan military commanders accuse the Syrian
     regime of supporting Al-Qadhafi's regime militarily, supplying it with
     weapons and mercenaries, and providing it with intelligence information
     about Libyan oppositionists abroad. In remarks to Al-Sharq al-Awsat, a
     Libyan military commander said: "We feel we have a personal vendetta
     against Al-Asad's regime. We have previously arrested Syrian officers
     and pilots who were operating within Al-Qadhafi's army against the
     Libyan people."
     And after Al-Qadhafi lost his media outlets under the military strikes
     of the revolutionaries, backed by NATO aircraft bombardment, the
     Damascus-based Al-Ra'y satellite channel television assumed the mission
     of serving as Al-Qadhafi's voice to the world. And before Al-Qadhafi's
     death and the fall of his political regime, the Syrian authorities
     rejected more than one request by the Libyan revolutionaries to close
     down the Al-Ra'y channel. This channel, which is owned by Iraqi
     oppositionist Mish'an al-Juburi, is regarded as hostile as it incited
     the Libyans to kill the revolutionaries and propagated Al-Qadhafi's
     black propaganda.
     Although NATO Secretary General Ander Fogh Rasmussen, who visited Libya
     the day before yesterday, said that NATO had no intention of intervening
     in Syria or imposing a no-fly zone by force against the Syrian regime,
     many Syrian oppositionists believe that this official stand may change
     in the future.
     In his statement to Al-Sharq al-Awsat, Abdallah al-Zintani, chairman of
     the Tripoli Revolutionary Council, said: "The Syrian oppositionists
     should benefit from our experience. The international community will not
     intervene unless the Syrians pay the price, like us. We fought against
     Al-Qadhafi and lost thousands of martyrs, thus placing the international
     community in an embarrassing and regrettable situation. So eventually,
     NATO intervened militarily." He added: "If you want others to help you,
     you first have to prove to others that evasion of offering help to you
     is an inhuman and unethical act. The Syrians should assimilate the
     Libyan revolution's outcome and apply it as they deem fit to their
     situation."
     The preparatory national committee on support of the Syrian revolution
     called for a meeting in Paris. More than 50 Syrian opposition figures
     will participate in this constituent conference to work out programmes
     and elect action group to support the Syrian revolution in its struggle
     to overthrow the Syrian regime and build a civil, democratic state. In a
     statement it released, the committee said that the meeting will be held
     next Saturday and Sunday, noting that the opening session will be open
     to media outlets and that former Syrian Vice President Abd al-Halim
     Khaddam will address the meeting. The meeting will be followed by closed
     sessions and workshops.
     Source: Al-Sharq al-Awsat website, London, in Arabic 3 Nov 11
     BBC Mon ME1 MEEauosc 051111 nan
     A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

     Syria lashes out at U.S. State Department

     English.news.cn   2011-11-05 16:51:33

     http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-11/05/c_131231074.htm

     DAMASCUS, Nov. 5 (Xinhua) -- A Syrian foreign ministry source on
     Saturday slashed as "irresponsible" a statement made by the U.S. State
     Department advising Syrians not to surrender themselves after Damascus
     announced an amnesty for those who gave up their weapons.

     With its statement the U.S. administration has proved once again its
     flagrant intervention in the Syrian affairs and revealed its policy that
     supports killing, as well as its funding of " terrorist groups," the
     source was quoted by the state news agency as saying.

     The Syrian interior ministry on Friday called on those who carried, sold
     or distributed weapons but didn't commit homicides to turn themselves in
     within a week to receive amnesty.

     In a statement carried by the state TV, the ministry pledged to release
     those who turned themselves in between Nov. 5 and 12, saying that "this
     will be considered as an amnesty to those who surrender themselves and
     hand over their weapons."

     After the issue of the Syrian statement, the U.S. State Department
     spokesman Victoria Nuland told reporters that "I wouldn't advise anybody
     to turn themselves in to the (Syrian) authorities at the moment."

     "This would be about the fourth amnesty that they've offered since I
     took this job about five months ago," she said, "So we'll see if it has
     any more traction than it's had."

     The Syrian government "condemns this irresponsible statement that
     couldn't be interpreted but as aiming to foment sedition and support
     killing and terrorism practiced by armed groups against Syrian
     citizens," the foreign ministry source said.

     The Syrian government urged the international community to confront
     those policies "that run against the rules of the international law and
     the UN Security Council resolutions pertaining to combating and funding
     terrorism," the source said.

     Marking Eid al-Adha a*|553 Detainees Involved in Events with No Blood on
     their Hands Released

     Nov 05, 2011

     http://www.sana.sy/eng/21/2011/11/05/380103.htm

     DAMASCUS, (SANA)_Marking Eid al-Adha, 553 detainees who were involved in
     the current events with no blood on their hands were released.

     Also, 119 detainees were released lately.

     Interior Ministry on Friday called upon citizens who were involved in
     carrying, selling, distributing, transferring or financing the purchase
     of weapons and hadn't committed killing crimes to turn themselves in and
     hand their weapons over to the nearest police station in their region
     from Saturday, November 5, 2001 until Saturday, November 12, 2011.

     The Ministry, in a statement, said those who will turn themselves in
     will be released soon and this will be considered as a general amnesty
     for them.

     M. Ismael
     On 11/8/11 12:32 PM, Nate Hughes wrote:

       We've got a good foundation for this in George's dangers of a libyan
       NFZ piece and his emaculate/humanitarian intervention weekly.

       Syrian AD is certainly a more complex challenge that Libyan AD both in
       terms of disposition and sheer scale. But it also should not be
       overstated. It is a large but obtainable

       When was the last time any of this hardware was upgraded? How well are
       they maintained and how often do their crews drill? Has that changed
       since the unrest started?

       Israel demonstrated quite clearly that it can poke a pretty decisive
       hole in it back in 2007, and while Syria certainly learned from that,
       what has it been able to change in any meaningful sense? It is well
       mapped and routinely probed and monitored by the israelis.

       How many of their planes are flight worthy?

       Your points about this being a big undertaking -- bigger than Libya
       and more dangerous -- is well grounded in our pieces from the lead-up
       to the Libya intervention. But scale of strike capacity required is
       different than risk and achieveability. Mapping out disposition and
       detailing weapons specs does not convey the underlying military
       balance between a key strength of the american (and israeli) way of
       war -- the air campaign against even IAD networks -- and how Syria
       might hold up to it.

       With the right tools (in both quality and quantity) properly applied,
       Syria's AD network is entirely a manageable tactical problem -- though
       it would be messier than Libya to some degree.

       But you have not justified your concluding assertion that it would be
       a seismic shift, and can't do that without arguing the larger
       political shifts.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Omar Lamrani &lt;omar.lamrani@stratfor.com&gt;
       Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
       Date: Tue, 8 Nov 2011 10:45:04 -0600 (CST)
       To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
       ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
       Subject: DISCUSSION - What does a No-Fly Zone/Buffer Zone over Syria
       Mean?
       Excellent Map from the Graphics Department:

       https://clearspace.stratfor.com/docs/DOC-7456

       Aside from very isolated and limited strikes, any significant
       incursions or attempts to impose a buffer zone/no-fly zone over Syria
       will lead to major conflict.

       In order for aircraft to freely and safely operate over Syria, the
       Syrian air defense network must be degraded if not crippled. This
       means that radar systems have to be neutralized, surface to air
       missile (SAM) batteries targeted, runaways bombed, and Syrian fighter
       aircraft intercepted and destroyed. By any measure, this implies a
       bombing campaign over Syria, with serious potential for escalation.

       The NATO no-fly zone over Libya was preceded by massive cruise missile
       and air strikes against the Libyan air defense network. French
       aircraft did fly over Libya to strike at Kaddafia**s mechanized
       columns heading towards Benghazi before the main strikes against the
       Libyan AD network commenced, but they flew over parts of Libya without
       any air defenses due to the area previously having been overrun by
       rebels. As will be illustrated below, the Syrian air defense network
       is far more effective than the previous Libyan one ever was.

       Despite comprising largely of aging if not obsolescent Soviet
       equipment, the Syrian Air Defense network is fairly robust. The Syrian
       fixed SAM systems are mostly of the same type as those used by
       Kaddafia**s Libya, consisting primarily of SA-2, SA-3, SA-5, and SA-6
       systems. Unlike Kaddafia**s Libya however, the Syrian SAM network is
       far larger, denser, and focused. Multiple SAM batteries are deployed
       in such a way as to ensure overlapping and redundant coverage, which
       not only increases the survivability of the SAMs but also goes some
       way towards alleviating the aging equipmenta**s inability to target
       more than one target at a time.

       While Kaddafia**s air defenses were situated to protect the populated
       coast, the Syrian SAM network is heavily concentrated in Western
       Syria, with the entire network being primarily oriented towards
       defense against Israeli Air Force incursions.

       Syrian SA-5 batteries are long ranged systems that are more effective
       against strategic than tactical assets. Due to the low maneuverability
       of the launched missiles and their inability to target low flying
       aircraft, the primary role of the SA-5 is to deter or destroy AWACS,
       tankers, and other large and slow targets. The five Syrian SA-5
       batteries are deployed in a manner as to provide overlapping coverage
       of Western Syria, with all batteries able to engage targets over the
       Golan Heights and Damascus.

       The SAM belt around Damascus and the Golan Heights is perhaps the
       densest in the Middle East, with dozens of SA-2, SA-3, and SA-6
       batteries in the area. This component of the Syrian SAM network serves
       two main functions. First, it provides a major impediment to any
       aircraft coming in directly from Israel into Syria or entering Syria
       after flying through Southern Lebanon. Second, it provides an umbrella
       over the large numbers of Syrian army formations in the Golan as well
       as protects the capital.

       A number of Syrian SA-2 and SA-3 batteries are also deployed along the
       Syrian coast to prevent any aircraft penetrating into Syria from the
       sea. Further SA-2, SA-3, and SA-6 batteries are positioned to protect
       the major Syrian cities of Aleppo, Hama, and Homs, including major
       military facilities in the area such as the Homs missile factory, Hama
       missile base, and Al-Safir missile base.

       24 airports with paved runways as well as some 80 airports with
       unpaved runways are integral to the Syrian Air Defense network. The
       majority of these airbases are situated under the SAM system umbrella.
       From these airbases, a large and dispersed fighter and interceptor
       force reinforces the Syrian SAM network. Most notably, the 697, 698,
       and 699 Mig-29 squadrons operate from the Tsaykal airbase near the
       Damascus SAM belt and the 1st and 5th Mig-25 squadrons operate from
       the heavily defended Tiyas airbase east of Homs. Fighter and
       Interceptor aircraft are also charged with protecting the eastern half
       of Syria from attack, where Syrian SAM defenses are minimal.

       The Syrian AD network is comprehensive but that does not mean that it
       is able to stand up against a concerted air campaign by entities such
       as NATO or Israel. The Syrians are well aware of this, and have made
       substantial efforts to upgrade their defenses by seeking to purchase
       more modern SAM systems and aircraft such as the Mig-31. However, as
       can clearly be seen from the Israeli strike on a Syrian nuclear
       reactor (Operation Orchard), the Syrian AD network can be a serious
       threat that has to be averted. In the Operation Orchard case, IAF
       F-15Is from the 69th squadron deliberately flew over Turkey near the
       Syrian border to avoid the vast bulk of the Syrian defenses. In
       addition, the nuclear reactor was situated in the Deir ez-Zor region,
       deep in Eastern Syria where the only real defenses are obsolete Mig-21
       aircraft from the 8th squadron.

       The Syrian AD network is not very technologically sophisticated, but
       it is large and dangerous enough to pose a serious threat to any
       aircraft operating over Syria. Thus, if a decision to impose a no-fly
       zone or buffer zone is taken, then a concerted bombing campaign in
       Syria will ultimately be the result. Such a campaign could easily lead
       to escalation and unpredictable results. The decision to impose a
       no-fly zone over Syria is no easy matter, and would constitute a
       seismic shift in the region.

 --
 Omar Lamrani
 ADP
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 www.STARTFOR.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-08 19:58:16</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2228572_re-discussion-what-does-a-no-fly-zone-buffer-zone-over-syria.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>rbaker@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2237322</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-11 13:59:34</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2237322_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2237366</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
	CODE
</title>
    <description>   Agree
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: scott stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:59:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;; Korena Zucha&lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Anya Alfano&lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   I'll bet cash they are connected to the Austin guys busted for the DNC
   plot plus some of the Austin Earth First jabronis. 
   From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 11:51:44 -0600
   To: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Anya Alfano &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;, Alpha List
   &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Have we seen Deep Green Resistance carry-out acts of violence in the
   past? 

   On 11/16/2011 6:38 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not "radical" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the "Phoenix Commune" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as "stupid, crazy motherfuckers", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, "Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-18 21:17:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2237366_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2241596</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION - TURKEY/SYRIA - the military buffer zone
</title>
    <description>   this is what the Turkish diplo source said - Turkey will send troops
   across the border, ostensibly in order to safeguard its territory against
   PKK attacks, and will use the terms of the agreement reached between
   Turkey and Syria in 1998, which allows the Turkish army to penetrate a few
   kilometers inside Syria to defend against PKK attacks. Turkey has been
   asking for an Arab endorsement to commit itself more actively in Syrian
   affairs.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Nathan Hughes" &lt;hughes@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, November 15, 2011 4:25:23 PM
   Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - TURKEY/SYRIA - the military buffer zone

   I'm no longer clear on what we're talking about.

   Turkey is dropping hints about exercising an existing hot pursuit clause,
   right?

   Can someone please lay out the specifics of what they're saying? What
   exactly did Turkey hint at specifically and where did we get 'buffer
   zone'?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Omar Lamrani" &lt;omar.lamrani@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, November 15, 2011 4:13:38 PM
   Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - TURKEY/SYRIA - the military buffer zone

   yes, it's a hot pursuit clause

   but, the idea is that Turkey is contemplating using that hot pursuit
   clause to justify sending and keeping troops on the other side of the
   border. that would deifnitely be stretching the rules, and would require
   Turkey responding to (or perhaps inventing) a Kurdish militant threat in
   that area that would legally justify such intervention.

   but if Turkey were willing to absorb the risk of entering Syrian territory
   and establishing a buffer zone, essentially as an act of war, then why go
   through the trouble of bringing up this 1998 agreement to begin with when
   Syria is going to see through it

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Omar Lamrani" &lt;omar.lamrani@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, November 15, 2011 4:06:41 PM
   Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - TURKEY/SYRIA - the military buffer zone

   I looked through the links and this is what I found for the Adana
   Agreement:

   First Link - The right for Turkey to pursue terrorists (PKK) up to 15km
   into Syria.
   Second Link - The right for Turkey to pursue terrorists (PKK) up to 5km
   into Syria.
   Third Link - The agreement allows the Turkish Army to penetrate some
   distance into Syria in case it feels threatens by PKK operations.
   Fourth Link - The right for Turkey to pursue terrorists (PKK) up to 15km
   into Syria.

   All links do not point to a buffer zone. Instead, the Adana Agreement
   according to the links provided allows for the authorization of
   pursuit/hot pursuit into Syria to a maximum of 15km.
   On 11/15/11 2:23 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     A Turkish diplomatic source mentioned a few days ago that a stipulation
     in the 1998 agreement between Turkey and Syria would allow TUrkish
     troops to enter a few kms into Syrian territory. We searched the public
     text of that agreement and didn't find anything that resembled a line
     like that, but when I followed up with a source, this is what I found
     out:

     On Oct. 20, 1998 the Syrians and Turks signed the Adana Agreement, a
     secret document that ended the conflict between two countries, and
     transformed their bi-lateral relations from enmity into cooperation.
     According to the terms of the agreement, Syria renounced its claim to
     Hatay and authorized the Turkish army to pursue Kurdish rebels inside
     Syria up to 5 kilometers without seeking the prior permission of the
     Syrian authorities (some sites say the later Hafiz Asad allowed the
     Turkish army to penetrate Syrian territories up to 15 kms, although the
     5kms authorization seems to make more sense.

     This is obviously a major concession that Syria had to make when it was
     legitimately scared that the TUrkish army was going to keep rolling its
     tanks across the border. The terms of the Adana agreement were not made
     public because it was a total Syrian capitulation to the Turkish
     demands. Some describe the agreement as a Turkish-Syrian Camp david
     Accord.

     The following Arabic sites  mention the Adana Agreement and the right it
     gave to the Turkish army to enter Syrian territories.

     http://www.dohainstitute.com/Home/Details?entityID=f0c8e1eb-3c4c-48ec-b0e3-fa1951689963&amp;resourceId=d97c2772-de19-4cd7-ba6b-4acb51ccc031

     http://elsoumoudelcharif.mescops.com/t7928-topic

     http://jordanzad.com/index.php?page=article&amp;id=61494

     http://ejabat.google.com/ejabat/thread?tid=479cefea07705c0d

     I still don't think Turkey is close to establishing this military buffer
     zone, but we're taking a serious look at how they would go about it if
     they did do it.  Tactical team is mapping out the terrain, roads, ets.
     in this area.

     A few things to keep in mind:

     As Omar pointed out, even if there is this stipulation in a secret 1998
     agreement, i doubt Syria would respect it if Turkey is using it to send
     troops into Turkish territory and has publicized its interest in
     toppling the regime. It would likely be regarded by Syria (and Iran, by
     extension) as an invasion and thus an act of war. That means TUrkey
     would not only be facing the SYrian army, but also could bear the brunt
     of militant proxy attacks (think Hezbollah, PKK possibly, etc.)

     A Turkish military buffer zone in the north doesn't do shit for the
     areas where the SUnni oppoisiton is concentrated and getting beat. the
     natural escape route for Homs and Hama is southward toward LEbanon
     (where Syria has a lot of leverage.)  In the north, you have the Kurdish
     areas (Qamishli is the main city) and you have the important city of
     Aleppo, where Syria has concentrated a lot of forces.

     Remember Turkey's main interest when it comes to Syria. They're not
     looking ot march on Damascus for kicks. They are most concerned with the
     spread of Kurdish separartism/militancy. So far, the Kurds in Syria have
     been relatively calm (we had insight on this recently on how KRG is also
     advising the SYrian Kurds to not push it.)  So the Kurdish threat has
     not risen to the level yet for TUrkey to intervene.

     But --

     Turkey wants to show it's capable of doing something.  I am still going
     to argue that establishing a military buffer zone and risking war with
     Syria (and proxy war with Iran) is not worth it in Turkey's eyes.

     But --

     If Turkey has  legit reason to believe Syria and Iran are playing the
     PKK card, things could shift. That's what i think we need to be watching
     for closely.

 --
 Omar Lamrani
 ADP
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 www.STARTFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-15 23:34:47</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-20 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2241596_re-discussion-turkey-syria-the-military-buffer-zone-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2258811</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA/AZ/US/VZ/RUSSIA/TAIWAN - Erdogan's
 cancer, Turkish plan for Syria and more - TR325
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE: TR325 and his business partner
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Former NSC official in Turkey, adviser to Erdogan,
   energy expert negotiator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

   TR325's business partner has an old classmate friend who was the lead
   surgeon on Erdogan's most recent operation. He said that Erdogan has colon
   cancer, but they haven't seen the second biopsy results yet to see if it's
   metastasized. In the last operation, they cut out 20 cm of Erdogan's colon
   (I just looked up that the average colon is about 1.5m long.)  That's a
   really significant operation. Erdogan is not going to be able to travel
   for a while, and he's going to have to carry around with him a colonoscopy
   bag for at least 2-3 months.  The prognosis is not looking good, though.
   The surgeon said they were estimating 2 years for him.

   This is very likely going to cause major splits within the AKP.  Gul
   doesn't have much support.  Davutoglu is paranoid that everyone else is
   trying to undermine him (there's a definite competition between him and
   TR325.)  When I asked who Erdgogan trusts, two names were mentioned - Ali
   Babacan (Deputy PM) and Taner Yildiz (energy minister.)  Both sources were
   asking how the US is likely to react to this situation.  Would they try to
   back the military like the old days?  CHP is still very much divided. Both
   seemed to think the military won't be able to take advantage of the
   situation.

   On Syria - the conversation centered on how far Turkey is actually going
   to go.  TR325 explained that the Turkish plan is centered on civil war in
   Syria.  Officially, it's Turkey providing the main training,a rms and
   support to FSA. Unofficially, US and TUrkey are doing this together in
   deploying SOF for this mission.  Notice all the talk in the press now
   about civil war breaking out in Syria. This is the narrative Turkey and US
   want to build.  I pointed out that creating the conditions for civil war -
   actual neighborhood to neighborhood fighting - is still pretty difficult
   considering that the Alawite forces are still holding together, but he
   seemed to think that this can escalate within 2 months time. He also said
   without saying that they're working on making that happen. He acknowledges
   it'll be messy and it will take a lot of blood and time for a Sunni power
   to emerge in syria, but that this is the Turkish obligation.

   The Turkish plan to preempt the instability that would result from civil
   war conditions is to implement the buffer zone 5-40km into Syrian
   territory and set up refugee camps.  I asked what levers Iran and Syria
   have to get Turkey to back off in relation to PKK.  He said
   (half-jokingly) that Karilan is Turkey's man (ie. turkey can actually
   negotiate with him.)  But he said PKK third-in-command (still need to get
   this guy's name) answers to Syria and Iran. Turkey knows this very well
   and he says Syria and Iran are already making moves to threaten attacks
   via this faction.

   I'm left with a lot of questions --

   Given the instability that is likely to result within AKP over Erdogan's
   health, would Turkey really be making bold foreign policy moves, such as
   helping to create a civil war in Syria?

   Turkey appears very confident that Syria/Iran have the means to play the
   PKK card. Why risk that?

   Turkey knows they'll be dealing with a massive refugee crisis in Syria -
   why propel that situation?

   Some other points -

   TR325 believes AZ wiill be able to export 5-7bcm via ITGI for SDII. 
   Russia has its stake in Edison to keep a foothold in that route.  The rest
   he agrees is likely going to have to be shipped to Russia eventually since
   the Europeans aren't financing anything right now. He did say that SOCAR
   is flush with money right now and could actually put money down on these
   projects if they have the market demand and client base to do it.

   They were both asking me what is happening with Trinidad and Tobago. I
   told them I have no idea. They were asking because they are involved in a
   business deal to sell conventional subs to Trinidad and Tobago. They're
   assuming the US is preparing something for VZ.  They are also involved in
   similar submarine sales to Taiwan and Japan.
</description>
    <date>2011-12-10 20:04:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2258811_-alpha-insight-turkey-syria-az-us-vz-russia-taiwan-erdogan-s.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2266851</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION - What does a No-Fly Zone/Buffer Zone over Syria Mean?
</title>
    <description>   Is the no-fly zone concept about the entire country, or just a buffer area
   near turkey? Very different types of enforcement needed for those. Think
   the localized nfz's in Iraq years back. 
   As for what Assad is doing in regards to the Arab league, if he has been
   given until the 18th to implement, why not have a surge in the crackdown,
   highlight the significant force differential between the military and the
   opposition, and then offer the opposition a way out, or at least some of
   them. Ten you can get most of the street protests done, you can appease
   the AL (for whatever that is worth), and you can make it clear that you
   win. And if the surge doesn't bring the opposition elements fractured and
   begging to the table, ignore the AL and keep the battle going. 

   On Nov 8, 2011, at 12:47 PM, Michael Wilson &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
   wrote:

     The larger political shift is something I had wanted to discuss in the
     meeting. Now I'm not saying Turkey is going to escalate matters, but we
     should play devil's advocate with ourselves and ask some questions

     Arab league (meaning the states that comprise the AL) have given Syria
     til around the 18th to implement the peace plan. He is not going to do
     that. So the question is what do those states even get from this plan in
     the first place?

     Are they going to use Syria's failure to comply to move to closer to
     actually doing something?

     In the diplomatic/propoganda war they are "supporting" the FSA army
     which has minimum 70 people or exaggerated maximum 15K. The saudis are
     leaking plans (again) the Turkey will do a buffer region, while when
     DAvutoglu was asked recently whether he would or not he left the door
     open it

     Way to answer that I guess is to see what Turkey and KSA are actually
     thinking on Syria. Do they think he will survive or fall? If survive do
     they try to make nice? Do they try to make him fall? If they think he
     will fall, do they help it along or just wait? Do they have any
     capabilities in the first place? Are they just playing to domestic
     politics or preparing for the worst

     I feel like we've said they are waiting to see what happens and
     preparing for the worst. But that just seems so passive, wouldnt they be
     looking more ahead than that? At what do they make the decision that he
     is or isnt staying. After all according to Reva's piece coming out its
     looking more and more like he wont fall, so do they adjust to that?

     OS articles below

     Qatar calls for Arab League to meet again on Syria

     http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/06/us-syria-arabs-idUSTRE7A514Y20111106
     CAIRO | Sun Nov 6, 2011 9:28am EST
     (Reuters) - Qatar's prime minister called for Arab states to meet next
     Saturday to discuss the Syrian government's failure to take steps to
     solve its crisis, Egypt's official news agency MENA reported.

     "Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim, the Qatari Prime Minister, called for an
     emergency Arab League council meeting at foreign minister level next
     Saturday to look at the latest developments in Syria," MENA said.

     The meeting would discuss "the continuing violence and the government's
     failure to stick to its obligations under the Arab Action Plan to solve
     the crisis in Syria," it said.

     League circulates Syria''s reply to Arab plan

     http://www.kuna.net.kw/NewsAgenciesPublicSite/ArticleDetails.aspx?id=2201290&amp;Language=en

     Politics  11/7/2011 3:43:00 PM
      
     CAIRO, Nov 7 (KUNA) -- The Arab League received on Monday a letter from
     Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Al-Muallem that includes measures taken by
     the government to implement the Arab action plan to resolve the crisis
     in Syria.
     The League's Deputy Secretary General Ambassador Ahmad Ben Hilli said in
     a statement today that the League has circulated the letter on all
     Member States right after it received it.
     He said the letter tackled procedures carried out by the Syrian
     government to implement the Arab initiative.
     Qatar, as current President of the Arab Ministerial Council and
     Committee on the resolution of the Syrian crisis, has called for an
     emergency session next Saturday to discuss the situation developments in
     Syria in light of continuing violence.
     The Committee is expected to convene an emergency meeting late on Friday
     in Cairo to discuss the situation prior to the Council meeting the next
     day. (end) mfm.rg.tg KUNA 071543 Nov 11NNNN

     US: Syrian broken promises will increase pressure on regime
     Nov 3, 2011, 19:51 GMT

     http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/middleeast/news/article_1672923.php/US-Syrian-broken-promises-will-increase-pressure-on-regime
      
     Washington - The Syrian regime will become increasingly isolated if it
     continues to make and break promises to end the violence against its
     citizens, the United States said Thursday as security forces reportedly
     killed more than 20 people.
     'It's now incumbent on the Assad regime to prove it - first to the Arab
     League, and secondly to the larger international community - that it
     meant what it said when it committed to this deal,' State Department
     Spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said a day after Syria agreed on a deal with
     the Arab League to end the violence.
     'The Arab League will obviously draw its own conclusions if today,
     tomorrow, the next day, all of these promises that were made are again
     broken.'
     The number of countries that have pressured Syria to no avail will
     continue to lose the regime friends and increase the pressure on
     Damascus, she said.
     'We will predict that if (Assad) doesn't meet his promises to the Arab
     League, the Arab League is going to feel that they had promises made,
     promises broken, and they're going to have to react,' she said.

     Syria urges insurgents to turn selves in for amnesty

     http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/syria-urges-insurgents-to-turn-selves-in-for-amnesty/

     04 Nov 2011 13:08

     Source: reuters // Reuters

     BEIRUT, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Syria has called on insurgents to turn
     themselves into authorities within one week starting on Saturday to
     qualify for an amnesty, state television said on Friday.

     "The interior ministry calls on citizens who carried weapons, sold them,
     delivered them, transported them or funded buying them, and did not
     commit crimes, to hand themselves into the nearest police station," it
     said.

     "The interior ministry assures that those who turn themselves in ...
     will then be freed immediately and it will be considered as a general
     amnesty," it said.

     President Bashar al-Assad is confronting a popular revolt against 41
     years of rule by his family. The protest movement has been largely
     peaceful, but a nascent armed insurgency has emerged in some restive
     regions. (Reporting by Mariam Karouny; Editing by Mark Heinrich)

     Syria breaking commitments to Arab peace plan: France
     French government condemn Syrian security forces crackdown on peaceful
     protesters saying that Syria is breaking its commitments to an Arab
     League peace plan by continuing using violence against opposition
     AFP , Friday 4 Nov 2011
     http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/25944/World/Region/Syria-breaking-commitments-to-Arab-peace-plan-Fran.aspx

     France said Friday that Syria was breaking its commitments to an Arab
     League peace plan by continuing a deadly crackdown on protesters and
     cast doubt on President Bashar al-Assad's dedication to the deal.

     "The continuing repression can only strengthen the international
     community's doubts about the Syrian regime's sincerity to implement the
     Arab League peace plan," the French foreign ministry's deputy spokesman,
     Romain Nadal, told journalists.

     "We understand that at least 20 peaceful protesters were killed by
     security forces yesterday in Syria," he said.

     "The continuing repression is completely contrary to the commitments
     given by the Syrian regime to the Arab League."

     Syrian troops killed five civilians in protest centres on Friday as
     demonstrators took to the streets nationwide to test the regime's
     commitment to the Arab peace deal.

     Twenty civilians had been killed on Thursday -- the first day the
     hard-won agreement aimed at ending nearly eight months of bloodshed came
     into effect.

     The peace plan calls on Assad to withdraw security forces from protest
     hubs and engage in a national dialogue with his opponents.

     But Assad's opponents are sceptical about his readiness to rein in a
     brutal crackdown that the United Nations says has cost more than 3,000
     lives since mid-March.

     Turkish, Qatari ministers meet in Istanbul
     During the meeting, Ahmet Davutoglu and Khalid bin Muhammad al-Atiyah
     debated the agreement between Syrian administration and Arab League.
     http://www.worldbulletin.net/index.php?aType=haber&amp;ArticleID=81189

     Turkish foreign minister met Qatari minister of state for foreign
     affairs in Istanbul on Thursday.

     During the meeting, Ahmet Davutoglu and Khalid bin Muhammad al-Atiyah
     debated the agreement between Syrian administration and Arab League.

     Davutoglu briefed al-Atiyah on his meetings with Sudan's Foreign
     Minister Ali Ahmed Karti and Arab League's Secretary General Nabil
     al-Arabi.

     Al-Atiyah is visiting Turkey to hold talks regarding developments in
     Syria. He briefed Davutoglu on recent regional developments,
     particularly talks between Arab League and Syria.

     Arab League and Syrian administration have reached an agreement on
     ending violence in Syria as soon as possible and releasing people who
     were arrested during revolt against the government.

     Syria: Unofficial parties in Arab countries a**funding terroristsa**

     http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=328613

     November 2, 2011

     Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Moqdad accused on Tuesday
     unofficial Turkish, Lebanese, Jordanian and Saudi parties of funding
     a**terrorists in Syria.a**

     a**We do not want to say that the Saudi, Turkish, Lebanese and Jordanian
     governments are funding armed groups [in Syria], but we think that
     unofficial parties from these countries are funding [terrorists in
     Syria]. We request these countries to not allow this happen,a** he told
     the Russia Today channel.

     Moqdad also said that there are parties that want to incite a civil war
     in Syria and that a**these parties are Muslim extremists, Salafis and
     drug dealers,a** adding that such parties aim to destabilize Syria.

     The Syrian official also slammed Turkey following its recent statements
     on the Syrian situation and said that a**no one has the righta** to
     interfere in Syrian affairs.

     Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday that Ankara
     a**will not stay silenta** on Syria.

     Asked about UN reports that 3,000 have been killed since anti-regime
     protests began in mid-March, Moqdad said: a**Some international
     organizations have lost their credibility because they see events with
     one eye. These organizations failed to mention that Syria has lost 1,150
     security and army members.a**

     This is a day old, but was included in Grinstead's intsum this morning.
     Just want people to see it so that everyone knows that technically,
     Syria has not yet violated the terms of the AL agreement. They have two
     more weeks of killing spree allowed before they will technically be in
     violation.
     They're planning to hold the negotiations in Cairo, too, according to
     the AL deputy sec gen. Over the next week or so we should see
     preparations made for who exactly is going to attend. [BP]
     Arab League gives Syria 15 days to implement proposal
     Nov 3, 2011, 22:05 GMT
     http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/middleeast/news/article_1672949.php/Arab-League-gives-Syria-15-days-to-implement-proposal
     Cairo - Arab League Deputy Secretary-General Ahmad Ben Hali said
     Thursday that Syrian authorities have 15 days to implement provisions of
     an Arab League peace proposal before dialogue can kick off between the
     regime and the opposition.
     'The Arab League proposal is still in its initial stage,' Ben Hali told
     the Dubai-based Al Arabiya television.
     He added that dialogue between Syrian authorities and the opposition
     'will take place at the Arab League's headquarters and under its
     auspices.'
     Syria on Wednesday fully accepted an Arab League plan to end nearly
     eight months of bloodshed in the country, but on Thursday Syrian
     security forces killed 20 people and wounded 50 others in a new wave of
     crackdown against pro-democracy protesters.
     The Arab League plan forsees a complete halt to the violence, the
     release of protesters who have been detained since February, the
     withdrawal of forces from areas where there have been armed clashes, and
     granting access to delegates from the 22-member body and the
     international media.
     More than 3,000 people have been killed, among them 187 children, in the
     clampdown the Syrian government has been carrying out against protesters
     since the uprising started in mid-March, according to UN estimates.

     Arab League says Syria approves Arab plan
     Wed Nov 2, 2011 4:29pm GMT
      http://af.reuters.com/article/egyptNews/idAFWEA102020111102?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=egyptNews&amp;utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FAfricaEgyptNews+%28News+%2F+Africa+%2F+Egypt+News%29&amp;utm_content=Google+Reader&amp;sp=true

     CAIRO Nov 2 (Reuters) - The Arab League said on Wednesday the Syrian
     government had approved an Arab plan for dialogue with the opposition
     and steps to end seven months of bloodshed, according to a League
     statement released during a ministerial meeting in Cairo.

     "The Arab League welcomes the Syrian government's agreement to the Arab
     plan," the statement said, adding that it "emphasised the need for the
     immediate, full and exact implementation of the articles in the plan."

     "The Arab committee (overseeing the plan) is responsible for submitting
     periodic reports to the ministerial council of the Arab League on the
     progress of carrying out the plan," it said. (Reporting by Ayman Samir;
     Writing by Edmund Blair)

     All of the Asharq al awsat articles that are talking about Turkey
     perhaps preparing a buffer article reference comments Davutoglu made

     I am pretty sure they are talking about this FT interview from Nov 1.
     See bolded part

     Turkey hardens stance against Syria

     November 1, 2011 5:11 pm
     http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f1438150-049e-11e1-ac2a-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1d82Vwk3y
     By Daniel Dombey in Istanbul

     Turkey has signalled possible support for a buffer zone to protect
     Syrian civilians if Damascus continues its crackdown on democracy
     protests, as tensions rise between the two former strategic partners.

     Ahmet Davutoglu, Turkeya**s foreign minister, told the Financial Times
     that Ankara was preparing targeted sanctions against Damascus and left
     the door open for more drastic steps at a later date, such as a buffer
     zone or a no fly-zone on Syrian territory.

     a**The Syrian regime is attacking the Syrian people, which is
     unacceptable,a** Mr Davutoglu said in an interview. a**When we see such
     an event next door to us of course we will never be silent.a**

     When asked about Turkeya**s stance on a buffer zone or a no-fly zone, he
     said: a**We hope that there will be no need for these type of measures
     but of course humanitarian issues are importanta*|There are certain
     universal values all of us need to respect and protecting citizens is
     the responsibility of every state.a**
     His comments are an indication of the growing pressure Turkey is putting
     on Syria, on the rhetorical level at least, to halt the crackdown.

     By contrast, in August Turkish officials rejected reports they were
     planning to impose a buffer zone, while Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Natoa**s
     secretary general, dismissed the idea of a no-fly zone this week.

     Turkeya**s position is important because the country cultivated closer
     ties with Damascus until this year and is now taking an active role in
     reaching out to the Syrian opposition.

     Speaking at the Turkish parliament on Tuesday, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
     Turkeya**s prime minister, praised the Syrian protests as a**gloriousa**
     and expressed his belief that they would succeed.

     Ankaraa**s tougher approach has been greatly welcomed by the US, which
     has been leading calls for Bashar al-Assad, Syrian president, to leave
     power.

     On Tuesday Syrian state television announced that a final agreement had
     been reached between the Syrian government and an Arab League committee
     working to find a solution that could end the unrest, although it did
     not provide any details. The US said it welcomed any international
     efforts to end the violence in Syria, but reiterated its call for Mr
     Assad to step down.

     Although in the interview Mr Davutoglu denied claims that Turkey allowed
     armed Syrian rebels to operate from its territory, last week he became
     one of the first international officials to meet leaders of the
     Istanbul-based opposition Syrian national council.

     Mr Erdogan is also likely to visit Syrian refugee camps in Turkey in the
     near future, and could announce further sanctions against Damascus when
     he does. The trip had previously been scheduled for last month, but was
     postponed because of the death of Mr Erdogana**s mother.

     Although Mr Davutoglu said Turkish sanctions against Syria would be
     targeted rather than broad, any unilateral steps would mark a change of
     tack for Turkey, which has long depicted sanctions against its
     neighbours as both ineffective and damaging to its own economy.

     a**We have always been against sanctions, economic sanctions which will
     harm people,a** Mr Davutoglu said. a**But certain measures [that] have
     an impact on a regime fighting against its own people are different.a**

     Mr Davutoglu also rejected a claim by Mr Assad that western intervention
     in Syria could turn the country into another Afghanistan.

     a**[To compare] Syria to Afghanistan would mean implicitly to accept
     that it is a failed state, which is not true,a** he said. a**There is a
     state continuing in Syria; the important thing is how the leaders of
     this state are acting.a** He added that the correct analogy was with
     eastern Europe in the 1980s and early 1990s and warned Mr Assad:
     a**Those leaders who do not understand this correctly will lose
     power.a**

     Turkey: Wea**ve intercepted 3 Syria-bound weapons shipments from Iran
     Turkey reportedly planning buffer zone along border with Syria
     07/11/2011

     By Tha'ir Abbas
     http://www.asharq-e.com/news.asp?section=1&amp;id=27239

     London, Asharq Al-Awsat- The situations in Syria entered a new stage
     yesterday with signs of Arab-international-regional manoeuvrings
     emerging, which could lead to fundamental changes in the handling of the
     Syrian crisis.

     Next to the extraordinary session that the Arab initiative committee
     will hold next Saturday to discuss the Syrian Government's failure to
     implement its obligations which it accepted in the Arab action plan for
     resolving the Syrian crisis, sources in the Syrian opposition have
     disclosed they have received promises that the UN Security Council
     [UNSC] will hold a session after the Arab meeting to discuss a UN
     resolution to send international observers to Syria while Turkey has
     expressed its "readiness and ability" to establish a buffer zone on
     condition of getting an "Arab and international cover."

     Turkish sources have told Asharq Al-Awsat that Ankara is coordinating on
     a a**high-levela** with both Qatar that chairs the Arab initiative and
     with the Arab League [AL] and Washington. They said Turkey was going to
     announce several sanctions in a message that Turkish Prime Minister
     Recep Tayyib Erdogan was scheduled to address to the Syrians during his
     inspection of their camps inside Turkey but that was postponed "so as to
     make room for the Arab initiative and see what results it will have."
     But the sources pointed out that "with the escalation in the situation
     and the stalling of the initiative, Turkey might raise the (sanctions)
     issue again." They added that Turkey was holding contacts with the UNSC
     member countries that are still hesitant, especially Brazil and South
     Africa which have very close ties with Turkey, in order to persuade them
     to take a different stand.

     The Turkish sources disclosed that Ankara has imposed what could be
     described as sanctions on Damascus, like its total ban on the entry of
     weapons to Syria, this includes stopping three previous shipments from
     Iran, in addition to "the careful examination" of particular banking
     transfers to businessmen loyal to the regime so as to pressure and
     prevent them from supporting it. They cited Turkish Foreign Minister
     Ahmet Davutoglu about his country's readiness to impose a buffer zone
     all along the borders to protect the civilians and stressing that his
     country "has the readiness and ability to impose the buffer zone but we
     need an Arab and international cover."

     Meanwhile, sources in the Syrian opposition have told Asharq Al-Awsat
     they have received promises of holding a new UNSC session this week
     whose agenda will include a draft resolution to send a team of observers
     to Syria. They pointed out that the mission of the "blue berets" would
     be to watch the Syrian violations and hence protect the demonstrators
     from the daily killings.

     On his part, Radwan Ziyadah, member of the Syrian National Council, told
     Asharq Al-Awsat that the AL's next meeting on Saturday could be decisive
     "because the regime has been given three chances so far and squandered
     them all. I believe this is enough to force the hesitant countries to
     take a stand." He pointed out that "it is obvious that the Syrian regime
     will not stop the killings but on the contrary, it is using all the
     army's firing power in shelling the cities" and added: "Things will be
     better if it (the AL) takes the right decision, demands international
     protection, and authorizes the UNSC to take the appropriate resolution.
     It will then be impossible for Russia and China to use the (veto) or
     even abstain from voting." He said "it would be a mockery and ridiculous
     for the AL to give the regime more chances after all it has done" and
     noted in return that the Syrian opposition's contacts with AL Secretary
     General Nabil Elaraby "showed an unusual seriousness" in addition to the
     opposition's contacts with countries Ziyadah described as "hesitant"
     such as Sudan and Algeria which "showed a change in stands."

     Leader of Free Syrian Army says not receiving arms from Turkey

     Text of report by Turkish newspaper Milliyet website on 7 November

     [Interview with Colonel Riyad al-Asad of Free Syria Army in Antakya by
     Asli Aydintasbas: "Riyad al-Asad versus Beshar al-Asad"]

     Colonel Riyad al-Asad runs the Free Syria Army, which is undertaking the
     armed struggle against the Syria regime, from within a camp in Antakya.
     The colonel boasts: "We have 22 units and 15,000 soldiers in Syria."

     Opponent who have left the army are pleased with Turkey's support, but
     unhappy that they are unable to get weapons. Riyad al-Asad says: "There
     are officers inside who do not want to open fire on civilians. There
     should at least be a buffer zone for them."

     Up until now the popular uprising that has been going on in Syria since
     March has not had one known face or voice or leader.

     However, the Free Syria Army, which is made up of officers who left the
     Syrian army in recent weeks has suddenly gained the entire world's
     attention through its armed actions against Beshar al-Asad's regime and
     because of the statements is making abroad.

     The rebellion began in Dera on 8 March and has continued across the
     country with 4,000 people being killed and tens of thousands being
     arrested. So, has it moved one step beyond being a street protest and
     become an armed resistance?

     In order to get an answer to this question we went to Antakya to speak
     with the officers of the Free Syria Army, which has begun an armed
     resistance against Beshar al-Asad and which has been making its voice
     heard just recently.

     Colonel Riyad al-Asad fled the Syrian army and sought asylum in Turkey
     when the uprisings began, and is the leader of the Free Syria Army.
     Claiming to be engaging in guerrilla action against the regime all over
     Syria, the movement is coordinated by two separate units deployed one in
     Antakya and one on the Lebanon-Syria border.

     A Very Special Camp

     The Free Syria Army (OSO) in Antakya is deployed in a 70-person camp
     holding a few colonels, captains and army families, and which is
     protected by the Turkish army. (There are other civilian camps in the
     same area housing thousands of refugees from Syria.)

     Ankara had given up hope in Damascus when Beshar al-Asad bloodily
     quelled the Syrian people's demands, and insists that its protection of
     the officers or civilians who fled from Syria is for "humanitarian
     reasons." The officials and regime opponents I spoke to stressed there
     were no weapons at the camp and that no weapon training was being given.
     To date, there have been no hit-and-run attacks into Syria from Turkey.
     However, the camps are being tightly protected by Turkey because of the
     consternation the OSO is causing in Damascus.

     A Slim, Smiling Colonel

     Colonel Al-Asad, whom we met at a secret location on a rainy day in
     Antakya, came to the meeting accompanied by the close protection team
     the Turkish authorities had given him. The colonel is in constant
     danger.

     I made many interviews with Saddam's opponents who had fled the Iraqi
     army and with Peshmerga commanders fighting Saddam in northern Iraq back
     in the 1990s. I know the "opposition" fabric in this region very well
     indeed. That is why I have to say I was surprised to see not a mustached
     commander with a pot belly but a slim, unassuming and smiling face
     before me.

     During the long interview we made through an interpreter we discussed
     the conditions in the Syrian army, the colonel's breath-taking escape to
     Turkey and the armed actions he had undertaken in Syria.

     Let me state now that opponents all over the world always embellish when
     they speak. It is hard to believe that Colonel Al-Asad is running the
     15,000-stong militia groups conducting a guerrilla war in Syria using a
     simple Nokia cell phone and Skype on a sluggish internet connection.

     Ankara, while protecting the Free Syria Army, is not giving it
     permission to form a base of armed operations within Turkey. In fact,
     these is why some officers grew fed up with sitting in Antakya and
     watching events from afar, and have returned to Syria in order to
     continue "fighting."

     There Is Embellishment And Truth Alike

     However, this tale does have an element of truth to it. It is entirely
     true that there are serious numbers leaving the Syrian army, that
     officers and soldiers unwilling to bear arms against the people are
     seeking a place of refuge, and that despite all the difficulties the OSO
     has become a legend within the country. It is also true that some
     soldiers refused to fire and that they have begun to conduct amateurish
     attacks in small groups.

     In the end, the demise of the regime in Syria might not come at the
     hands of the colonel in a business suit sitting across from me, but at
     the hands of someone else entirely, or as a result of completely
     different dynamics. However, when it does come the Free Syria Army will
     have a role and a function, large or small, in the tale.

     What Colonel Al-Asad knows very well indeed is that the world public,
     still not used to the speed of the Arab Spring, is exceedingly cautious
     about an adventure in Syria. The West has not yet "pressed the button"
     for the toppling of Beshar al-Asad's regime. The clearest indicator of
     this is the lack of American, French or British officials coming and
     going to the camp in Antakya. Even though Washington might occasionally
     interject saying, "Al-Asad should go" there are no sanctions against
     Syria and no steps towards creating a "buffer zone." But this does not
     necessarily mean that the issue, which will be placed on the world's
     agenda again when the prime minister goes to Hatay in the coming weeks,
     will not take on a completely different colour in 2012.

     Why Are The Kurds Not Joining In The Protests?

     The Syrian Kurds living in the Qamishlo region had remained distant from
     the protests that were shaking up the rest of the country, right up
     until Syrian Kurd leader Mi'shal Temo was assassinated last month. The
     first things the regime did when the protests began was to give the some
     of the Syria Kurds "ID card" and citizenship rights, which had been
     denied them for 50 years. After this, both the PKK and the KDP
     [Kurdistan Democracy Party] lead by Mas'ud Barzani, who has some weight
     in Qamishlo, told the Kurds to "stay silent." We asked Col Al-Asad why
     the Kurds were not taking part in the attacks:

     "The Kurds have been very shy when it comes to taking part in the
     demonstrations. When the protests began the regime made some pledges to
     the Kurdish groups and gave 50,000 Kurds ID cards. The PKK told its
     supporters there not to hold any demonstrations against the regime. In
     fact, a known cleric of Kurdish origins (Ramazan Buti) was sent to
     Aleppo. But the atmosphere is changing."

     Bashar al-Asad Will Only Be Removed By War, Not Persuasion

     Colonel Al-Asad surprised me when he said they supported the offer made
     to the Syrian administration by the Arab League and that this was why
     they put their attacks on hold for a time. I assumed this caution might
     have come from Ankara. However, Riyad al-Asad does not think that an
     accord can be reached with Syria: "Bashar al-Asad will leave only
     through combat, not through persuasion. The Arab League gave Al-Asad an
     opportunity. But since then they killed 20 people in Humus. There are
     thousands of detentions in Damascus, again. If he had really been honest
     he would have complied with the Arab League and withdrawn his tanks from
     the towns. But he knows his government will fall the moment he does
     this. He has been running the country for 11 years. If he were going to
     enact reforms he would have done so by now. Seeing that the people adore
     him he should let it go and let the foreign press into the country."

     Only Intelligence And Special Teams Being Targeted

     [Aydintasbas] How many people are there in your group?

     [Al-Asad] We have 22 separate units deployed in every region in Syria.
     Approximately 15,000 soldiers. We have telephone communications with
     every unit. S ome of the demonstrations recently have shouted slogans
     for us. We have carried out many actions against the army. Some of our
     ranking colleagues here have gone back to take charge of the units
     there.

     [Aydintasbas] What kind of actions are you carrying out against the
     army?

     [Al-Asad] We call on the officers not to point their guns at people and
     to leave the army immediately. We are only targeting the Muhaberat
     (intelligence) and the special units known as Shabiba. We are not
     targeting private soldiers or the regular army. We generally employ
     guerrilla tactics because we do not have the heavy weapons for a
     straight up fight. We set ambushed. We have a great resistance in
     Rastan, and in other places too. We killed 10 officers in the past week.

     No Weapons From Turkey. We Wish There Were!

     [Aydintasbas] What is the situation in the Syrian army?

     [Al-Asad] The Muhaberat completely controls the army. It is said we are
     defending the country from outside or Israeli-backed gangs. Some
     officers who refused to fire on the people were killed. (He lists
     names.) There are units that fled like we did or that fire into the air
     rather than kill people when sent to put down the protests.

     [Aydintasbas] Where do you get your weapons from?

     [Al-Asad] The forces within the country are already armed. We are able
     to get weapons inside.

     [Aydintasbas] What about Turkey?

     [Al-Asad] No. If only. Turkey is the only country that has opened its
     borders to us but Turkey is wary about giving us weapons. The New York
     Times wrote we were getting weapon training here, but that is not true.

     The Free Syria Army was formed by officers who fled the army rather than
     fire on demonstrators in Syria. They claim to be using guerrilla tactics
     inside Syria.

     The group's leaders live in Antakya and in Lebanon. Their strength might
     be over-exaggerated but their existence is enough to create panic in
     Damascus.

     Al-Asad Says All Opponents Are Islamists -We Are Not

     [Aydintasbas] How did you get out of Syria?

     [Al-Asad] I have been in the army for 31 years. I was most recently
     serving in Idlib Province on the border. When the demonstrations began
     we received instructions saying, "Be alert. There are Israeli-backed
     armed groups in the country." We were told to protect the country from
     armed gangs. Yet, these were protests calling for reforms and freedoms.
     When the protests spread nationwide the Sunni officers such as myself
     came under a lot of pressure.

     We were always being summoned to the Muhaberat centre in Aleppo. When
     demonstrations began in the town where I was born they grew really
     suspicious. I was questioned. I was instantly transferred from Idlib to
     Hama, and I knew I would be killed if I did not run.

     A few other officers under suspicion had been murdered in transit. I
     took my family and came to the border.

     [Aydintasbas] Bashar al-Asad told the Daily Telepgraph that the fighting
     in Syria was between Islamists and Arab nationalists. Are you an
     Islamist?

     [Al-Asad] No, I am not. The regime calls all opponents Islamist. But
     Al-Asad is not killing Islamists. He is killing the people.

     [Aydintasbas] But are you from the Muslim Brotherhood?

     [Al-Asad] I have nothing at all to do with them. At none of the
     demonstrations in the country has even one Ihvan (Muslim Brotherhood)
     placard been unfurled. The Syrian people are one. And we all want
     democracy under the Syrian flag. We would prefer to be like Turkey, both
     Muslim and a secular democracy. Regardless whether those in charge are
     secular or Islamist, the Arab people will no longer accept a tyrannical
     regime.

     [Aydintasbas] There is a fear that if the regime in Syria falls then the
     Nusayrians will be slaughtered.

     [Al-Asad] Never. That idea is being propagated by the regime. There are
     Nusayrians and Kurds too.

     [Aydintasbas] So, are there any Nusayrians in the Free Syria Army?

     [Al-As ad] No, we are all Sunni.

     We Want A No Fly Zone

     [Aydintasbas] Just recently the Syrians have been calling for No Fly
     Zones during the demonstrations. What good would that do?

     [Al-Asad] We also want a buffer zone and no fly zone along the border
     with Turkey because Al-Asad's regime can only be brought down through
     power and brute force, not through persuasion. There are many officers
     and soldiers ready to leave the army and who we have spoken with. But
     they have nowhere to go. They know they will be destroyed without a
     special safe area. Look, our resistance in Rastan held out for four
     days. For four days the tanks could not enter the city. They only
     managed to enter because of the air strikes. There were 150 dead. Our
     resistance lost two of its 12 officers. Yet, had there been a no fly
     zone the regime could never have taken the town.

     Source: Milliyet website, Istanbul, in Turkish 7 Nov 11

     BBC Mon EU1 EuroPol ME1 MEPol 071111 em/osc

    Syrian army defectors to resume operations against regime's forces       
                                                                             
    Text of report by Saudi-owned leading pan-Arab daily Al-Sharq al-Awsat   
    website on 5 November                                                    
                                                                             
    [Report by Caroline Akum in Beirut: "Colonel Al-As'ad to 'Al-Sharq       
    al-Awsat': We Will Resume Our Operations Against Regime's Forces After   
    its Intentions Were Exposed. Split Among National Council's Members Over 
    Coorperation with Free Syrian Army"]                                     
                                                                             
    Defecting Colonel Riyad al-As'ad, commander of the "Free Syrian Army",   
    has declared to Al-Sharq al-Awsat that his army will resume the          
    "qualitative" military operations against [Syrian President Bashar]      
    Al-Asad's forces after the "regime's intentions" were exposed during     
    "the God is Great Friday."                                               
                                                                             
    The Free Syrian Army suspended its operations on Wednesday night to give 
    the Arab [League] initiative the chance to succeed. Al-As'ad said in a   
    telephone contact "we gave the Syrian regime a chance of two days after  
    it announced its acceptance of the Arab initiative so as to expose its   
    lies and manoeuvres. From today and following the exposure of its        
    intentions on (God is Great Friday), we will resume carrying out         
    qualitative military operations and our movements are going to be bigger 
    and wider."                                                              
                                                                             
    Al-As'ad denied the report by the Daily Telegraph about his plan for the 
    Free Syrian Army to be the military wing of the Syrian opposition to     
    President Bashar al-Asad's regime and said "we refuse to be followers of 
    any party. I will form a military council as soon as possible."          
                                                                             
    Asked if there was any coordination about these operations with the      
    Syrian National Council whose members refuse to militarize the           
    revolution, he pointed out that there were no contacts at the leadership 
    level but at the level of specific persons. He added: "We have defected  
    from the Syrian army and have the right to defend ourselves and our      
    people militarily. Anyone who thinks that this Syrian regime will        
    collapse peacefully is deluded. This is why we refuse to keep the        
    revolution peaceful. I will establish a military national council at the 
    earliest possible time and we will have our own programme which we will  
    announce at the time." He stressed that "the defections are increasing   
    daily and I can confirm that we have passed the 15,000 number."          
                                                                             
    Asked if there was military coordination with the Turkish authorities,   
    he said "there is no security coordination with Turkey and the support   
    the authorities is giving us is limited to humanitarian aid in addition  
    of course to protecting our security and the Syrian people's security."  
                                                                             
    The British Daily Telegraph had reported [LINK HERE; NOV. 3 ARTICLE]     
    that Al-As'ad was living under permanent protection from the security    
    officials in Ankara and noted that the high level of human losses in the 
    Syrian security forces' ranks as a result of internal attacks confirms   
    the presence of armed forces operating with the secret approval of the   
    authorities. The paper cited Al-As'ad as saying that the Free Syrian     
    Army's members are armed with weapons and ammunition stolen from the     
    regime, are protecting the boundaries of the opposition towns and        
    villages, and are attacking the soldiers firing on peaceful              
    demonstrators. The paper added, also quoting Al-As'ad, "we are waiting   
    for the Syrian National Council to appoint a high-level delegation and   
    send a representative to talk to us about supporting their objectives    
    militarily."                                                             
                                                                             
    On the other hand, National Council member Umar al-Idlibi has told       
    Al-Sharq al-Awsat that the question of the council's relationship with   
    the Free Syrian Army is widely discussed by the members and the results  
    would be announced within few days, particularly as some of them refuse  
    to deal with it on the basis of "maintaining the purity of the           
    revolution", which he considered "an ideal but inapplicable viewpoint."  
                                                                             
    But Council member Jabr al-Shufi denied the existence of any             
    coordination between it and the Free Syrian Army's command and told      
    Al-Sharq al-Awsat: "There is no coordination between the Free Syrian     
    Army and us and we do not have any connections with any operations it is 
    carrying out on the ground because we reject the militarization of the   
    revolution though we support these defections on condition that they are 
    made on the basis of the peaceful revolution." Regarding the Daily       
    Telegraph's report that Al-As'ad was planning to make his army the       
    military wing of the Syrian opposition, Al-Shufi asserted that "the      
    Council has not adopted this army or a ny wing in it." As to the         
    possibility of coordination with Al-As'ad in the next stage, he said:    
    "Channels of communications could be opened with him if he agrees and    
    complies with our basic conditions, namely, the non-militarization of    
    the revolution and keeping it as peaceful as it started because we are   
    fully convi! nced that turning the revolution into a military one will   
    make it lose its broad base and provide the regime with an additional    
    pretext to use us against us and the demonstrators." He added: "We       
    support their use of arms if they are defending themselves, houses, and  
    citizens but we reject categorically any military attack or operation    
    because this is inconsistent with our objectives and approaches on which 
    the peaceful revolution is based."                                       
                                                                             
    Source: Al-Sharq al-Awsat website, London, in Arabic 5 Nov 11            
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEEauosc 051111 pk                                           

              A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011
     This Saudi media report is saying that Erdogan was going to visit the
     Antakya region (right on the Syrian border), but had to postpone it
     because of the PKK troubles and the subsequent Turkish military
     operation in N. Iraq. He will apparently reschedule his visit for after
     the Eid holidays.
     Does anyone here know Ersat Hurmuzlu? He is described as Gul's chief
     advisor, and he said some vague things Nov. 2 about Turkey preparing to
     take "measures" against Syria.
     The bolded part in the second to last para is potentially the most
     important, but like always, is a Saudi claim that doesn't cite anyone
     specifically from within the Syrian opposition. Read what they're
     claiming the Turks have promised Erdogan will deliver when he does make
     his visit to Antakya. That is some bigtime shit.

    Syrian opposition say Turkey "promised"' to arm dissidents, boycott      
    regime                                                                   
                                                                             
    Text of report by Saudi-owned leading pan-Arab daily Al-Sharq al-Awsat   
    website on 3 November                                                    
                                                                             
    [Report by Tha'ir Abbas in London: "Turkish official tells Al-Sharq      
    al-Awsat: We will take measures to protect the Syrian civilians and stop 
    the use of violence; Syrian opposition sources talk about Turkish        
    promises to establish a buffer zone, arm the dissidents, and boycott the 
    regime"]                                                                 
                                                                             
    Turkey has regained its hard-line tone against the Syrian regime         
    following a period of "anticipation" imposed by the successive           
    developments in the region. As Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip       
    Erdogan returns the Syrian file to the forefront of Turkey's priorities, 
    his close associates tell Al-Sharq al-Awsat that the expectations in     
    Turkey indicate that Ankara is on the verge of preparing for a higher    
    ceiling of statements and actions against Syria. Sources in the Turkish  
    prime minister's office have said that Erdogan did not make his expected 
    visit to the Antakya region due to the events that imposed "other        
    concerns". This was a reference to the attacks that the Kurdistan        
    Workers' Party perpetrated and the large-scale military operation that   
    the Turkish forces launched in northern Iraq. The sources pointed out    
    that Erdogan's visit to Antakya region to review the living conditions   
    of the Syrian "guests" in the Turkish camps has been deferred, not       
    cancelled. ! The sources went on to say that a new date for this visit   
    will be set after Erdogan returns from his two visits to Germany and     
    France and after the Id al-Adha holiday.                                 
                                                                             
    Ersat Hurmuzlu, the Turkish president's chief adviser, stated yesterday  
    [ 2 November] that his country will take "measures" regarding Syria,     
    adding that compliance with international sanctions imposed on the       
    Syrian regime are not subject to discussion. Hurmuzlu told Al-Sharq      
    al-Awsat that his country "will take measures to protect the Syrian      
    civilians and to stop the use of violence". However, he declined to go   
    into details but promised that the Turkish prime minister will announce  
    these measures in the name of the Turkish government. Hurmuzlu said that 
    his country "did all it can to expedite reforms in Syria; however, it    
    has lost hope because the Syrian leadership has chosen the principle of  
    violence and bloodshed". Hurmuzlu pointed out that his country was the   
    first to call for dialogue between the regime and the opposition. He     
    went on to say: "Why not if the new Arab initiative responds to the      
    demands of the Syrian people and guarantees the sparing of more !        
    bloodshed". He emphasized that the "legitimate demands of the Syrian     
    people should be met. The decision is in the hands of the Syrian         
    people". Syrian opposition sources disclosed to Al-Sharq al-Awsat        
    yesterday that Ankara promised the Syrian opposition to take four steps  
    that Erdogan will announce during his visits: Turkey will sever all      
    relations with the Syrian regime, will join the total and comprehensive  
    boycott of Al-Asad's regime, arm the Free Syrian Army, support the       
    establishment of a buffer zone in northern Syria, and help the Syrian    
    opposition on the international level regarding the demand of            
    international protection.                                                
                                                                             
    Hurmuzlu answered a question related to remarks made by Buthaynah        
    Sha'ban, the Syrian president's adviser, who talked about "Turkish       
    promises to issue passports to the Syrian refugees on Turkey's soil".    
    Hurmuzlu replied: "This is categorically incorrect. We consider these    
    civilians as guests, not refugees that. The circumstances in their       
    country drove them to seek asylum; they are free to return to their      
    country". Answering another remark by Sha'ban on why the refugees fled   
    from Idlib to Turkey instead of to Aleppo that is closer, Hurmuzlu said  
    that the security conditions forced them to take this step. He added:    
    "Seeking asylum in Turkey by the refugees was by choice. We did not ask  
    them to come to Turkey and we did not force them to return or to stay".  
    He emphasized that his country is treating its guests "will all          
    respect". He added that the Turkish authorities launched a vaccination   
    campaign among the refugees against Hepatitis and conducted a full       
    survey ! of the medical conditions of the more than 7,000 refugees.      
    Hurmuzlu concluded that the Syrian regime's remarks that the refugees    
    are being exploited are totally unjustified.                             
                                                                             
    Source: Al-Sharq al-Awsat website, London, in Arabic 3 Nov 11            
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEEauosc 051111/da                                           

              A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

     Russia urges support for Arab League peace plan on Syria
     Topic: Protests in Syria

     MOSCOW, November 7 (RIA Novosti)

     http://en.rian.ru/russia/20111107/168493117.html
      
     Russiaa**s Foreign Ministry called on Monday for international backing
     for an Arab League peace plan for Syria.
     Under the plan, Syria would release political prisoners detained during
     the ongoing conflict, and all military equipment would be removed from
     urban areas.
     Syria would also be obliged to allow Arab League and world media
     representatives into the country, as well as guarantee them free
     passage.
     a**The implementation of these measures and other provisions stipulated
     in the Arab Leaguea**s initiative paves the way for a constructive and
     detailed dialogue between the Syrian authorities and the opposition with
     the aim of putting the situation on the road to reconciliation and
     reformations without any foreign involvement,a** the Russian ministry
     said in a statement.
     Syria formally adopted the plan on November 2, but the Syrian opposition
     rejected it, saying it would not enter a dialogue with the current
     authorities.
     According to UN estimates, more than 3,000 people have been killed in
     Syria since mid-March, when first anti-regime protests began.

     I'm only sending this because it is a Saudi attempt to hype some sort of
     budding cooperation between the Libyan revolutionaries and the Syrian
     opposition. Note that they did not out any names of the Syrians that
     supposedly met with the Libyans. It is also not surprising at all for me
     to see that the Libyan they quote is Abdullah Naker. He is seriously
     butt buddies with the Asharq people; we mentioned him in our Libya piece
     - he's one of those who hates Belhaj with a passion.
     Syrian opposition seeks to emulate Libya's NTC in bid to oust Al-Asad
     Text of report by Saudi-owned leading pan-Arab daily Al-Sharq al-Awsat
     website on 3 November
     [Report by Khalid Mahmud in Cairo: "The Syrian council seeks to emulate
     the Libyan Model against Al-Asad's regime; Tripoli Revolutionary Council
     chairman to Al-Sharq al-Awsat: We will offer our expertise to Syrians to
     overthrow the Syrian regime"]
     The Syrian Transitional Council [STC], which is opposed to President
     Bashar al-Asad's regime, yesterday [2 November] seemed to be seeking to
     emulate the scenario of its Libyan counterpart against the late Col
     Mu'ammar al-Qadhafi. An STC delegation held semi-secret talks with
     representatives of various Libyan national forces and of the
     Transitional National Council [TNC] aimed at securing military and
     logistical support to enable demonstrators in Syria to stand up to
     Al-Asad's regime's brutal suppression.
     The STC delegation met with a number of Libyan revolutionary leaders,
     commanders of security brigades, as well as TNC officials in the Libyan
     capital Tripoli and in other Libyan cities. They sought to secure Libyan
     revolutionaries' support to STC's attempts to overthrow Al-Asad's
     regime.
     After meeting with the STC delegation, Abdallah Nakir al-Zintani,
     chairman of the Tripoli Revolutionary Council [NOTE: This guy was
     mentioned in our big Libya piece; hates Belhaj], told Al-Sharq al-Awsat
     that the Syrian delegation requested military and material aid as well
     as advice on how to confront the suppressive actions that the Syrian
     authorities commit against unarmed demonstrators in various Syrian
     cities. He added: "Naturally, they requested all sorts of aid they can
     get - -weapons, funds, combatants. We believe that the international
     community and the Arab countries should help the Syrian demonstrators'
     efforts to rid themselves of Al-Asad's regime." Al-Zintani noted that
     the Libyan revolutionaries sympathize with their Syrian brethren as they
     face systematic killing aimed at foiling the popular revolution against
     the ruling regime in Syria. He stressed that all the Syrian regime's
     methods to subjugate the demonstrators are doomed to failure.
     Al-Zintani added: "Our advice to him (Syrian President Bashar al-Asad)
     is that he should quit and voluntarily give up power instead of
     eventually finding himself tormented, humiliated, before getting killed
     like Al-Qadhafi." He said that the huge military machine that Al-Qadhafi
     had did not succeed in saving his regime from the Libyan people's
     overwhelming revolution against him. He added: "I think the same applies
     to Syria. Eventually, weapons will not succeed in subjecting the people
     who have taken to the streets in Syria. Suppression, torture, and
     killing will not terrorize the Syrian people. The Syrian president
     should learn a lesson from what happened around him in Egypt, Tunisia,
     and Libya."
     Al-Zintani said that he believed the Syrian president should show some
     wisdom and spare himself and his people torment, and avoid making them
     pay a heavy human and material price to get rid of him and his political
     regime. He added: "He must stop killing and promptly decide to quit, as
     Tunisian President Zine Elabidine Ben Ali did. Weapons and killing will
     not enable him to stay in power for ever against the Syrian people's
     will; this is absurd and he must stop."
     Al-Zintani said that the sympathy displayed by the Libyan
     revolutionaries for their Syrian brethren is quite justified because the
     conditions in both countries are similar to some extent. He said: "We
     started with peaceful demonstrations, which soon turned into
     confrontations, forcing us to stand up to Al-Qadhafi's regime, his
     security brigades, and military forces. The same thing is now happening
     in various parts of Syria. People take to the streets with bare chests
     while the regime opens fire at them to kill without seeking
     understanding." He urged the international community and the Arab
     countries to help the Syrian people in every way possible to prevent
     further carnage.
     Al-Zintani added: "We explained our experience to the Syrian delegation
     members on how to secure the support of the Arab countries, the
     international community, NATO, and the US Administration, and briefed
     them on our recent, modest experience." Al-Zintani stressed that through
     the TNC, the Libyan people should help their Syrian brethren to rid
     themselves of Al-Asad's regime. He said: "He (the Syrian president) has
     to understand that the Syrian people have awakened, and that they will
     not accept a continuation of any further humiliation. Nothing will
     protect him from the Syrian people's revolt except quitting and putting
     an end to his regime."
     Al-Zintani said: "We do not introduce ourselves as custodians of the
     Arab spring revolts. We only offer our experience to anyone who requests
     it, particularly because it is the newest experience in contemporary
     Arab history, and shows how we disposed of a tyrant like Al-Qadhafi." He
     said: "There is a strong similarity between what is happening in Syria
     and what happened in Libya. The thugs in Syrian streets are like the
     former members of the revolutionary committees and security brigades in
     Libya. Also, there are tribes and tribal mingling in Syria as are there
     in Libya."
     The Libyan TNC's recognition of the legitimacy of its Syrian counterpart
     against Syrian President Bashar al-Asad's regime is the first in the
     Arab region and the Middle East. In February, the Libyan people made
     their decisive choice early on the need for the imposition of a no-fly
     zone against Al-Qadhafi's regime, seeking NATO assistance to prevent
     Al-Qadhafi's forces from killing civilians and destroying the
     infrastructure of most Libyan cities. The Syrian opposition leaders,
     however, are still at odds among themselves over seeking assistance from
     NATO or other foreign parties.
     The Syrian oppositionists fear the prospect that the ruling regime in
     Damascus may exploit their resort to NATO help to defame them and
     shuffle the cards among the local people. However, as the killing
     escalates daily in various Syrian cities, the Syrian opposition leaders
     abroad seem to be reconsidering their calculations and repeat the Libyan
     scenario.
     In a statement to Al-Sharq al-Awsat, A Libyan TNC official said:
     "Certainly we are ready to assist our brethren in Syria, but the
     question is how and when." This official, who asked not to be
     identified, was referring to several technical difficulties that hamper
     shipping the aid required by the Syrian revolutionaries, notably the
     distance between the two countries and the unavailability of Libyan
     ships to transport weapons, let alone the fact that the Syrian regime is
     capable of preventing ships from docking at Syrian ports. Some Syrians
     consider Turkey as a destination for foreign aid to be transported later
     across the Turkish-Syrian border to Syrian territory.
     In his remarks to Al-Sharq al-Awsat, this Libyan official said: "These
     logistical hindrances can be overcome if an international and regional
     network is established for the purpose of transporting aid to Syria, a
     task that will be difficult, very costly, and fraught with danger."
     The Libyans do not forget that President Al-Asad's regime adopted a
     hostile stand on their popular revolution, which erupted against
     Al-Qadhafi on 17 February. Libyan military commanders accuse the Syrian
     regime of supporting Al-Qadhafi's regime militarily, supplying it with
     weapons and mercenaries, and providing it with intelligence information
     about Libyan oppositionists abroad. In remarks to Al-Sharq al-Awsat, a
     Libyan military commander said: "We feel we have a personal vendetta
     against Al-Asad's regime. We have previously arrested Syrian officers
     and pilots who were operating within Al-Qadhafi's army against the
     Libyan people."
     And after Al-Qadhafi lost his media outlets under the military strikes
     of the revolutionaries, backed by NATO aircraft bombardment, the
     Damascus-based Al-Ra'y satellite channel television assumed the mission
     of serving as Al-Qadhafi's voice to the world. And before Al-Qadhafi's
     death and the fall of his political regime, the Syrian authorities
     rejected more than one request by the Libyan revolutionaries to close
     down the Al-Ra'y channel. This channel, which is owned by Iraqi
     oppositionist Mish'an al-Juburi, is regarded as hostile as it incited
     the Libyans to kill the revolutionaries and propagated Al-Qadhafi's
     black propaganda.
     Although NATO Secretary General Ander Fogh Rasmussen, who visited Libya
     the day before yesterday, said that NATO had no intention of intervening
     in Syria or imposing a no-fly zone by force against the Syrian regime,
     many Syrian oppositionists believe that this official stand may change
     in the future.
     In his statement to Al-Sharq al-Awsat, Abdallah al-Zintani, chairman of
     the Tripoli Revolutionary Council, said: "The Syrian oppositionists
     should benefit from our experience. The international community will not
     intervene unless the Syrians pay the price, like us. We fought against
     Al-Qadhafi and lost thousands of martyrs, thus placing the international
     community in an embarrassing and regrettable situation. So eventually,
     NATO intervened militarily." He added: "If you want others to help you,
     you first have to prove to others that evasion of offering help to you
     is an inhuman and unethical act. The Syrians should assimilate the
     Libyan revolution's outcome and apply it as they deem fit to their
     situation."
     The preparatory national committee on support of the Syrian revolution
     called for a meeting in Paris. More than 50 Syrian opposition figures
     will participate in this constituent conference to work out programmes
     and elect action group to support the Syrian revolution in its struggle
     to overthrow the Syrian regime and build a civil, democratic state. In a
     statement it released, the committee said that the meeting will be held
     next Saturday and Sunday, noting that the opening session will be open
     to media outlets and that former Syrian Vice President Abd al-Halim
     Khaddam will address the meeting. The meeting will be followed by closed
     sessions and workshops.
     Source: Al-Sharq al-Awsat website, London, in Arabic 3 Nov 11
     BBC Mon ME1 MEEauosc 051111 nan
     A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

     Syria lashes out at U.S. State Department

     English.news.cn   2011-11-05 16:51:33

     http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-11/05/c_131231074.htm

     DAMASCUS, Nov. 5 (Xinhua) -- A Syrian foreign ministry source on
     Saturday slashed as "irresponsible" a statement made by the U.S. State
     Department advising Syrians not to surrender themselves after Damascus
     announced an amnesty for those who gave up their weapons.

     With its statement the U.S. administration has proved once again its
     flagrant intervention in the Syrian affairs and revealed its policy that
     supports killing, as well as its funding of " terrorist groups," the
     source was quoted by the state news agency as saying.

     The Syrian interior ministry on Friday called on those who carried, sold
     or distributed weapons but didn't commit homicides to turn themselves in
     within a week to receive amnesty.

     In a statement carried by the state TV, the ministry pledged to release
     those who turned themselves in between Nov. 5 and 12, saying that "this
     will be considered as an amnesty to those who surrender themselves and
     hand over their weapons."

     After the issue of the Syrian statement, the U.S. State Department
     spokesman Victoria Nuland told reporters that "I wouldn't advise anybody
     to turn themselves in to the (Syrian) authorities at the moment."

     "This would be about the fourth amnesty that they've offered since I
     took this job about five months ago," she said, "So we'll see if it has
     any more traction than it's had."

     The Syrian government "condemns this irresponsible statement that
     couldn't be interpreted but as aiming to foment sedition and support
     killing and terrorism practiced by armed groups against Syrian
     citizens," the foreign ministry source said.

     The Syrian government urged the international community to confront
     those policies "that run against the rules of the international law and
     the UN Security Council resolutions pertaining to combating and funding
     terrorism," the source said.

     Marking Eid al-Adha a*|553 Detainees Involved in Events with No Blood on
     their Hands Released

     Nov 05, 2011

     http://www.sana.sy/eng/21/2011/11/05/380103.htm

     DAMASCUS, (SANA)_Marking Eid al-Adha, 553 detainees who were involved in
     the current events with no blood on their hands were released.

     Also, 119 detainees were released lately.

     Interior Ministry on Friday called upon citizens who were involved in
     carrying, selling, distributing, transferring or financing the purchase
     of weapons and hadn't committed killing crimes to turn themselves in and
     hand their weapons over to the nearest police station in their region
     from Saturday, November 5, 2001 until Saturday, November 12, 2011.

     The Ministry, in a statement, said those who will turn themselves in
     will be released soon and this will be considered as a general amnesty
     for them.

     M. Ismael
     On 11/8/11 12:32 PM, Nate Hughes wrote:

       We've got a good foundation for this in George's dangers of a libyan
       NFZ piece and his emaculate/humanitarian intervention weekly.

       Syrian AD is certainly a more complex challenge that Libyan AD both in
       terms of disposition and sheer scale. But it also should not be
       overstated. It is a large but obtainable

       When was the last time any of this hardware was upgraded? How well are
       they maintained and how often do their crews drill? Has that changed
       since the unrest started?

       Israel demonstrated quite clearly that it can poke a pretty decisive
       hole in it back in 2007, and while Syria certainly learned from that,
       what has it been able to change in any meaningful sense? It is well
       mapped and routinely probed and monitored by the israelis.

       How many of their planes are flight worthy?

       Your points about this being a big undertaking -- bigger than Libya
       and more dangerous -- is well grounded in our pieces from the lead-up
       to the Libya intervention. But scale of strike capacity required is
       different than risk and achieveability. Mapping out disposition and
       detailing weapons specs does not convey the underlying military
       balance between a key strength of the american (and israeli) way of
       war -- the air campaign against even IAD networks -- and how Syria
       might hold up to it.

       With the right tools (in both quality and quantity) properly applied,
       Syria's AD network is entirely a manageable tactical problem -- though
       it would be messier than Libya to some degree.

       But you have not justified your concluding assertion that it would be
       a seismic shift, and can't do that without arguing the larger
       political shifts.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Omar Lamrani &lt;omar.lamrani@stratfor.com&gt;
       Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
       Date: Tue, 8 Nov 2011 10:45:04 -0600 (CST)
       To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
       ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
       Subject: DISCUSSION - What does a No-Fly Zone/Buffer Zone over Syria
       Mean?
       Excellent Map from the Graphics Department:

       https://clearspace.stratfor.com/docs/DOC-7456

       Aside from very isolated and limited strikes, any significant
       incursions or attempts to impose a buffer zone/no-fly zone over Syria
       will lead to major conflict.

       In order for aircraft to freely and safely operate over Syria, the
       Syrian air defense network must be degraded if not crippled. This
       means that radar systems have to be neutralized, surface to air
       missile (SAM) batteries targeted, runaways bombed, and Syrian fighter
       aircraft intercepted and destroyed. By any measure, this implies a
       bombing campaign over Syria, with serious potential for escalation.

       The NATO no-fly zone over Libya was preceded by massive cruise missile
       and air strikes against the Libyan air defense network. French
       aircraft did fly over Libya to strike at Kaddafia**s mechanized
       columns heading towards Benghazi before the main strikes against the
       Libyan AD network commenced, but they flew over parts of Libya without
       any air defenses due to the area previously having been overrun by
       rebels. As will be illustrated below, the Syrian air defense network
       is far more effective than the previous Libyan one ever was.

       Despite comprising largely of aging if not obsolescent Soviet
       equipment, the Syrian Air Defense network is fairly robust. The Syrian
       fixed SAM systems are mostly of the same type as those used by
       Kaddafia**s Libya, consisting primarily of SA-2, SA-3, SA-5, and SA-6
       systems. Unlike Kaddafia**s Libya however, the Syrian SAM network is
       far larger, denser, and focused. Multiple SAM batteries are deployed
       in such a way as to ensure overlapping and redundant coverage, which
       not only increases the survivability of the SAMs but also goes some
       way towards alleviating the aging equipmenta**s inability to target
       more than one target at a time.

       While Kaddafia**s air defenses were situated to protect the populated
       coast, the Syrian SAM network is heavily concentrated in Western
       Syria, with the entire network being primarily oriented towards
       defense against Israeli Air Force incursions.

       Syrian SA-5 batteries are long ranged systems that are more effective
       against strategic than tactical assets. Due to the low maneuverability
       of the launched missiles and their inability to target low flying
       aircraft, the primary role of the SA-5 is to deter or destroy AWACS,
       tankers, and other large and slow targets. The five Syrian SA-5
       batteries are deployed in a manner as to provide overlapping coverage
       of Western Syria, with all batteries able to engage targets over the
       Golan Heights and Damascus.

       The SAM belt around Damascus and the Golan Heights is perhaps the
       densest in the Middle East, with dozens of SA-2, SA-3, and SA-6
       batteries in the area. This component of the Syrian SAM network serves
       two main functions. First, it provides a major impediment to any
       aircraft coming in directly from Israel into Syria or entering Syria
       after flying through Southern Lebanon. Second, it provides an umbrella
       over the large numbers of Syrian army formations in the Golan as well
       as protects the capital.

       A number of Syrian SA-2 and SA-3 batteries are also deployed along the
       Syrian coast to prevent any aircraft penetrating into Syria from the
       sea. Further SA-2, SA-3, and SA-6 batteries are positioned to protect
       the major Syrian cities of Aleppo, Hama, and Homs, including major
       military facilities in the area such as the Homs missile factory, Hama
       missile base, and Al-Safir missile base.

       24 airports with paved runways as well as some 80 airports with
       unpaved runways are integral to the Syrian Air Defense network. The
       majority of these airbases are situated under the SAM system umbrella.
       From these airbases, a large and dispersed fighter and interceptor
       force reinforces the Syrian SAM network. Most notably, the 697, 698,
       and 699 Mig-29 squadrons operate from the Tsaykal airbase near the
       Damascus SAM belt and the 1st and 5th Mig-25 squadrons operate from
       the heavily defended Tiyas airbase east of Homs. Fighter and
       Interceptor aircraft are also charged with protecting the eastern half
       of Syria from attack, where Syrian SAM defenses are minimal.

       The Syrian AD network is comprehensive but that does not mean that it
       is able to stand up against a concerted air campaign by entities such
       as NATO or Israel. The Syrians are well aware of this, and have made
       substantial efforts to upgrade their defenses by seeking to purchase
       more modern SAM systems and aircraft such as the Mig-31. However, as
       can clearly be seen from the Israeli strike on a Syrian nuclear
       reactor (Operation Orchard), the Syrian AD network can be a serious
       threat that has to be averted. In the Operation Orchard case, IAF
       F-15Is from the 69th squadron deliberately flew over Turkey near the
       Syrian border to avoid the vast bulk of the Syrian defenses. In
       addition, the nuclear reactor was situated in the Deir ez-Zor region,
       deep in Eastern Syria where the only real defenses are obsolete Mig-21
       aircraft from the 8th squadron.

       The Syrian AD network is not very technologically sophisticated, but
       it is large and dangerous enough to pose a serious threat to any
       aircraft operating over Syria. Thus, if a decision to impose a no-fly
       zone or buffer zone is taken, then a concerted bombing campaign in
       Syria will ultimately be the result. Such a campaign could easily lead
       to escalation and unpredictable results. The decision to impose a
       no-fly zone over Syria is no easy matter, and would constitute a
       seismic shift in the region.

 --
 Omar Lamrani
 ADP
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 www.STARTFOR.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-08 19:58:16</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2266851_re-discussion-what-does-a-no-fly-zone-buffer-zone-over-syria.html</permalink>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2272858</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
 CODE
</title>
    <description>   It might sound strange, but some of the most radical deep ecology people
   actually believe that there are too many people on the earth and that
   radical steps must be taken to reduce the population and save the earth.
    This strain of deep ecology is a clear reflection of the way the movement
   was heavily influenced by people like Martin Heidegger who were also
   committed to Nazism. Yes, Nazis were radical environmentalists.....
   From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 23:08:31 -0600
   To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Jesus I spent a couple of hours researching these guys - weird is an
   understatement. Apparently they met yesterday a couple of blocks away from
   my house to consolidate their leadership, go through basic indoctrination
   and plan more events. As far as I can tell, the Austin chapter is not
   nearly as radical as the central Lierre Keith DGR whose website is a
   treasure trove of incitment to passive resistance, blowing up energy
   infra, basic counter intel and legal guidance.

   Their ideology seems to be a mix of hardcore environmentalism, anarchism,
   radical feminism and the general notion that we need to go back living
   sustainably like the american indians by blowing up every pipeline and
   cell tower on the planet. Unlike the central DGR, Austin DGR doesn't seem
   to have defined targets and goals (their meeting yesterday was a
   brainstorming session on what radical environmentalism means in Austin).

   just a few nice quotes from their central website:

   The task of an activist is not to navigate systems of oppressive power
   with as much personal integrity as possible; it is to dismantle those
   systems.

   What would we do if Nazis had invaded, and they were vacuuming the oceans,
   scalping native forests, damming every river, changing the climate, and
   putting carcinogens into every mother's breast milk, and into the flesh of
   your children, your lover, your mother, into your own flesh? How much
   worse would the damage have to get? Would you resist? If there existed a
   resistance movement, would you join it?

   On 11/16/11 7:42 PM, Victoria Allen wrote:

     WHOA.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 18:38:01 -0600
     To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Cc: Anya Alfano&lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
     CODE
     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not "radical" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the "Phoenix Commune" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as "stupid, crazy motherfuckers", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, "Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-17 14:01:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2272858_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2283472</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111
</title>
    <description>   this dude really gives the impression that Moscow calls the shots in Kiev

   so basically, Med gets pissed b/c Timo is blowing Putin and not him, so he
   whines to Putin and says drop the B and get behind Yanu like me. Putin
   says fine, Yanu gets excited and oversteps his boundaries, and now Putin
   is like fix this shit Med and Med is like okay, but we dont know what Med
   is actually gonna do to slap Yanu around

   so what's the couterargument to this? Does Russia really have this much
   influence over the situation?  this is something we need to address in
   ukraine reassessment

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marc Lanthemann" &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

   CODE: UA111
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Kiev
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch.
   But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps
   this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to
   begin with.

    

   You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in
   power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew
   Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to
   solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be
   Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most
   easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got
   her in trouble and arrested.

    

   But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no
   respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev
   made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a
   deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if
   Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being
   the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU,
   military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension
   it had been pushing for.

    

   So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009,
   the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing
   to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of
   demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally.

    

   Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev
   to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing
   against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever
   will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-09-14 20:55:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2283472_re-alpha-insight-ukraine-moscow-kiev-spat-ua111-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2287011</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
	CODE
</title>
    <description>   Agree
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: scott stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:59:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;; Korena Zucha&lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Anya Alfano&lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   I'll bet cash they are connected to the Austin guys busted for the DNC
   plot plus some of the Austin Earth First jabronis. 
   From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 11:51:44 -0600
   To: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Anya Alfano &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;, Alpha List
   &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Have we seen Deep Green Resistance carry-out acts of violence in the
   past? 

   On 11/16/2011 6:38 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not "radical" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the "Phoenix Commune" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as "stupid, crazy motherfuckers", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, "Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-18 21:17:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2287011_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2297759</id>
    <title>G3/S3* - IRAN/US/ISRAEL/SYRIA - Iran officials accuses USA,	Israel
	of interfering in Syria
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-09-13 09:40:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2297759_g3-s3-iran-us-israel-syria-iran-officials-accuses-usa-israel.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2312421</id>
    <title>Re: Fwd: Labor Day Review of Where We Are
</title>
    <description>   hey. thanks. yeah... i read this. kind of amazing. i fully intend to stage
   a hostile takeover over of the board with james brown after morenz gets
   tased by fred in a dark stairwell.

   but... really, thanks for looking out for us. i can say without feeling
   like a suckup that i'm glad to be here regardless of pay, even if my
   mother-in-law called me "an unpaid apprentice."

   kindest regards,
   phillip d. orchard

   word apprentice
   geography enthusiast
   keynesian
   canadian
   university of texas at austin bachelors of science of journalism of class
   of 2005
   rose bowl sideline stander
   hemophiliac
   512.574.6964

   On 9/6/11 7:41 PM, Brad Foster wrote:

     Hey you two, don't know if you saw this, but potentially, this is good
     news for you. Our CEO is basically saying we need to hire more people,
     including in the publishing side (the side you're on). Look at the parts
     I highlighted below. I know ya'll want a job, and although there are
     never any guarantees, it is looking pretty good for yall if you work
     hard as an intern this semester and make good friends with Maverick and
     Jenna (which is pretty damn easy, just be a nice, fun person and a
     diligent worker.) I am not the smartest cat in the sandbox, but I showed
     up as an intern everyday and showed eagerness to learn and to work, and
     I got rewarded for it. Just don't want ya'll to be discouraged by the
     lack of pay (my offer to take yall interns out for lunch sometime still
     stands, you deserve more appreciation) at the moment, even though it's
     annoying. Everyone started where you were at at some point. That is how
     the process works.
     *I never sent you this email. Don't mention it*
     BTW, heres the long version of my signature for your entertainment:
     Brad Foster
     Africa Monitor
     Operations Center Officer
     Writer
     STRATFOR
     512.944.4909

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "George Friedman" &lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "allstratfor" &lt;allstratfor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Monday, September 5, 2011 2:55:16 PM
     Subject: Labor Day Review of Where We Are

     THIS IS FOR INTERNAL STRATFOR USE ONLY. DO NOT SHARE THIS DOCUMENT OR
     DISCUSS IT OUTSIDE OF STRATFOR.

      

      

      

     I hope you've all had a great Labor Day Weekend. This Labor Day marks a
     turning point in Stratfor's history, and I wanted to share my thoughts
     with you and some plans. It used to be, not so long ago, that we were so
     small that information flowed to all hands by itself.  It is hard for me
     to recognize sometimes that this is no longer true, so I will provide an
     extensive review of where we are and what is coming.  Some of this will
     be old hat to some of you; some of this will be new.  This is an attempt
     to start getting everyone on the same page. 

      

     Historically, Stratfor was unique in a number of ways. First, we
     accepted no advertising. Second, we charged for our subscriptions.
     Finally, we were revenue driven. We build the company from our
     revenues.  This kept us independent, it kept us free to experiment-and
     at times fail, it kept us tight. We were reaching a point where we our
     revenues did not keep up with our needs and market opportunities.

      

     Shea Morenz provided us with two opportunities.  First, he made an
     investment in Stratfor designed to give us the capital needed to build
     our staff and our marketing.  Second, he proposed a new venture,
     StratCap, which would allow us to utilize the intelligence we were
     gathering about the world in a new but related venue-an investment fund.
     Where we had previously advised other hedge funds. We would now have our
     own, itself fully funded by Shea.  Shea invested over $2 million in
     Stratfor and more in StratCap. In return he took a seat on Stratfor's
     board and a minority position in Stratfor, whose control remains in
     Don's and my hands.  It was a good deal for Stratfor, a good deal for
     StratCap, and since the deal closed officially on August 1, we now have
     the task of doing what we all want-building Stratfor and StratCap.

      

     Our cash position is not spectacular by any means, but we have the
     resources to build the kind of company we want, when that investment is
     combined with our revenues.  With cash under control we need to address
     the next problem-people. We all are doing more than our share to keep
     things going.  In some ways that good but it can be overdone, and we are
     overdoing it throughout the company.  Our job now is to expand the
     team.  Money is one element of that, but relieving the pressure we are
     under in a way increases the pressure, because we have to recruit and
     train new people. So it gets harder before it gets easier, and that's
     the point we are at.

      

     Let's divide our departments into two groups.  There are those
     departments that must train their own people, particularly in
     intelligence beyond the normal training needed by new employees.  We do
     that because no one thinks of the world like Stratfor, and that means
     that we can't hire people from other organizations, or at least not
     without a major training programming, which in our experience lasts up
     to two years.  Then there are departments that don't have this burden
     and that can hire people readily from other organizations.  Both groups
     of departments must grow and train, but the burden of training is much
     heavier in the Intelligence departments that train their staff from the
     bottom up than on other departments.  It is important for everyone to
     understand this distinction.  It is not that people in Intelligence are
     more important or more valuable than those in other departments.  It
     just means they face different problems in growing and that if they
     don't grow, other things can't happen.

      

     Now let's consider the tasks ahead.  First and foremost-and always first
     and foremost-we must be the world's leading private intelligence
     organization (and one of the finest intelligence organizations, period)
     and we must sell our intelligence through publishing.  Our current staff
     has done an outstanding job, but they are thin and sometimes we are
     weak.  We must do better in economics, and we must make certain that no
     AOR depends on only one person. There are lots of things that are
     needed. 

      

     Second, we are committed to supporting StratCap, a private fund that
     will begin operations some time this coming spring. What StratCap will
     do is use our Stratfor's intelligence and analysis to trade in a range
     of geopolitical instruments, particularly government bonds, currency and
     the like in the world's emerging markets.  Shea Morenz initiated this
     idea and leads it.  At the root of StratCap is a simple idea: Stratfor
     should put its money where its mouth is.  It does not conflict with
     Stratfor, but is an extension of it.

      

     Do not think of StratCap as an outside organization.  It will be
     integral to Stratfor, in the sense that much of the intelligence we are
     developing is useful to Stratcap as well as Stratfor.  The
     organizational and legal distinctions are real and important, but
     StratCap is linked to Stratfor intellectually and contractually.  It
     will be useful to you if, for the sake of convenience, you think of it
     as another aspect of Stratfor and Shea as another executive in
     Stratfor. 

      

     Let me also add that it is our commitment that all our team will benefit
     if StratCap is successful through some mechanism to be defined. This
     isn't an attempt to get you to work harder for the same money.  But that
     discussion must wait until the legal and administrative relationships of
     StratCap and its relation to Stratfor are worked out and reviewed by
     something called "compliance officers," people who make certain that we
     do not violate any regulations. 

      

     From that point of view, StratCap is something under construction.  You
     can see Shea Morenz hammering away building it in the corner office he
     took from Darryl. In the world of StratCap, corner offices are marketing
     tools.  This points to the fact that StratCap will be building its own
     staff and they come from a different world from Stratfor with a
     different culture.  That said, we have a great deal to learn from
     StratCap to strengthen Stratfor's understanding of economics and it has
     much to learn from us.  We are already working on mock portfolios and
     trades, testing our skills.  Kendra, Korena, Melissa, Jen, Peter,
     Meredith and myself are all involved in this along with Shea and
     Alfredo, a trader that makes us easy to understand compared to him. It's
     going pretty well in fact, but supporting StratCap will be a cultural
     and intellectual challenge.  It's important now to recognize that it is
     already here, growing and we will accommodate to it and it to us.

      

     I want to emphasize is that there is neither a legal, intellectual nor
     moral tension between Stratfor and StratCap.  We will continue to
     publish what we think is true.  StratCap is interested in our broad
     ideas but mostly in the obscure nuggets picked up by intelligence that
     are usually of little interest to our general readers.  My pledge to you
     and our readers is that our publication will remain untouched by
     StratCap-because they are merely different sides of the same coin,
     intelligence.

      

     We have also been asked to help the United States Marine Corps and other
     government intelligence organizations to teach them how Stratfor does
     what it does, and train them in becoming government Stratfors. We are
     beginning this project by preparing a three-year forecast for the
     Commandant of the Corps.  This is a double honor for us.  First, the
     professional intelligence community is acknowledging us as being the
     gold standard of intelligence.  Second, we are being asked to use our
     honest and unhedged views to support what is for Stratfor-an American
     company-its homeland.  Again, as with StratCap, there is no tension. We
     will tell the U.S. government precisely what we tell our readers and we
     think ourselves.  Our first lesson to the government is that
     intelligence organizations exist to make decision makers uncomfortable,
     not to make them feel better about their decisions. I didn't come this
     far to compromise on that. 

      

     Add to this that the fact that Turkish Chamber of Commerce (not its name
     but close enough; its name is TUSIAD) asked us to preside over their
     40th anniversary celebration, and that the Turkish Foreign Minister and
     Energy Minister will speak at the event, and you can see both our global
     recognition and our commitment to speak the same words to every country.
     We can serve the world from the same platform.

      

     So think about it.  We have three triumphs.  First, our publication is
     now read by almost 300,000 people (counting our corporate accounts).  We
     are a major force around the world.  Second, Shea-a guy who has played
     with the big boys at Goldman Sachs, asked us to play in the majors with
     him.  Third, the USMC has asked for our help, and with them others in
     the defense community.  These are three validations of us that are
     precious to me.

      

     Obviously, there is no way in the world that we can do all these
     things-plus the endless little projects that we must do all the
     time-with the staff we have.  And given that we take two years to train
     new analysts, and all of this is on us now-we have an urgent problem. 
     We can't punt opportunities at hand and continue at our current size.
     Nor can we easily expand.  So we will therefore expand with difficulty. 
     There is no choice.  Our Analyst Development Program is the means where
     we train people and find new analysts as well as find some staff for
     publishing (watch officers, monitors, operations center and writers all
     under Jenna Colley). We will have the largest group of ADPs ever this
     fall, starting next week.  About 13 people at last count will be joining
     us.  This is a huge percentage of the number of analysts on staff.
     Ideally all will work out well and our crisis will be over.  That's
     unlikely but our crisis will be mitigated by January 1. Doing this will
     put a huge burden on Intelligence, who must do their work and also train
     these people, but there is no choice.  This is the year when we break
     out.  I promise to work side by side with the team in training and
     growing he organization.  I also promise that if we succeed, we will
     become one of the most significant and prestigious foreign policy
     publications in the world-and those that made it happen will be known. 
     I know there are questions about by-lines. You know my hesitation, but
     we will figure out together someway to make sure that the glory is
     shared.

      

     Intelligence is divided into three parts.  There is Strategic
     Intelligence (under Rodger assisted by Reva) that is organized
     geographically.  There is Tactical Intelligence (under Stick, assisted
     by Nate Hughes) that is organized thematically-organized crime,
     cyber-warfare, military, terrorism, security, financial flows, supply
     chain and so on.  There is then intelligence gathering, under Meredith,
     assisted by Jen Richmond that is building sources from around the
     world.  All of them must grow dramatically.  The first two will grow
     mostly out of the ADP pool. The latter will be done by extensive work in
     the field.  But it is the Writers Group that is making the most
     impressive evolution.  Under Jenna (and Tim French and Maverick) it has
     moved into the heart of intelligence, writing as well as editing. 
     Everyone should watch this team. They are pioneering things the world
     hasn't seen yet. Along with Watch Officers, monitors and the operations
     center, this unit is translating intelligence into product with
     increasing effectiveness.  It is now organizationally mature and ready
     to both grow and sustain the growth of Intelligence.

      

     This growth will put a tremendous strain on other departments. Leticia
     has done a tremendous job in Human Resources, but the job has grown much
     greater than she can possibly manage.  Just the process of getting visas
     for new ADPs is overwhelming, and at least half of these come from other
     countries.  We have selected an HR consulting firm to support her in the
     coming months and other solutions will be found to sustain this. HR will
     become more effective in the next months. In addition, we are retaining
     a law firm to create a policy for Stratfor on Foreign Corrupt Practices
     Act.  I don't plan to do the perp walk and I don't want anyone here
     doing it either.  We need some clear guidelines on the law and are
     getting them, particularly as we ramp our intelligence capability.
     Similarly finance has kept us all going and similarly it has to expand,
     although it is a shade less pressured than HR is.

      

     IT faces a huge challenge.  Traditional IT organizations focus on the
     development of new capabilities for a company and sustaining complex
     systems. At Stratfor, the focus must also be on sustaining basic systems
     like phones, email, configuring and fixing laptops and cell phones and
     so on-the basic tools that make our work possible and which are a
     particular challenge in a global company operating 24-7.  That gives our
     IT department a different shape and tempo than exists in other
     companies. With this class of ADPs, 24-7 will become very real.  IT is
     under pressure to maintain its focus on improving the web site and
     corporate systems but has a special and intense mission of supporting a
     growing, global company at the ground level, and the pressure is never
     going to be greater than now with all the new people coming on board in
     all departments. Creating an IT department that fits our peculiar needs
     will be Frank's challenge.

      

     I want to also point to two departments that are performing extremely
     well.  Customer Service at Stratfor is among the best in the business. 
     We daily get emails praising their work. John Gibbons has done an
     amazing job keeping this going.  More subscribers mean more customer
     service of course.

      

     Also to be mentioned is he on-line marketing team who has just done
     something very impressive. There is usually a slump in subscriptions
     after a Red Alert, and there was one, but in a matter of weeks they
     pitched in and turned it around with some strange and wonderful
     campaigns.  They have broken their forecast in spite of a pretty quiet
     world.  Its amazing the kind of ads that work!

      

     Let's turn to marketing and sales and the future.  Our readership is now
     about 5 percent of the Economist when we exclude corporate (not sure why
     we exclude corporate but that's what we do).  That means that we have
     probably saturated a good part of the early adopters market-the early
     adopters who love us and have built us-and put up with our weaknesses.
     It's kind of like people who supported Apple in its dark days, putting
     up with promising but not yet mature computers.  If you haven't read,
     "Crossing the Chasm," a rare business book that is actually helpful,
     please take a look at it.  It will explain much of what we are trying to
     achieve in marketing.

      

     We have no choice but to grow.  If we stay this size someone larger,
     with deep pockets will notice the market we have created and come in
     after us.  We won't be able to compete.  The only protection is market
     share, to be so dominant a force in the market that no one challenges us
     and our own deep pockets.  For this we must grow revenue and that means
     readership.  The place we must grow is in the mainstream.  I don't mean
     by mainstream CNN. I mean readers who are interested in what we have,
     but aren't fanatics, groupies and wannabes.  These people have higher
     standards in production values, and less forgiveness for mistakes. They
     don't buy the mystique.  They buy the publication. That's where most of
     our customers are and where we have to go.

      

     Obviously this is one of the reasons we need more people.  It is also
     the reason we must deliver in new ways.  Grant Perry and his team are
     looking at ways to create a unique, Stratfor video culture. I see this
     myself as consisting of much longer and serious conversations among
     analysts moderated by an anchor, documentaries, briefings. Perhaps our
     Sitreps should all be delivered via video and audio (there is I think
     huge demand for audio products in cars, or so many people tell me).  All
     of this will evolve in unexpected directions under Grant, Colin, Brian,
     Andrew and others who will join them. This is part of our own evolution
     into the mainstream, on our own terms, with our own voice. What you see
     above, by the way, are simply my own ideas, not fully thought out. 
     Whatever Grant and his team produce will be uniquely Stratfor.

      

     Other than that we shall see.  What markets we will enter, and how we
     enter them is not yet known. We do know that the current Stratfor
     product, however enhanced, will be our only offering.  We will not be
     developing new products for markets. 

      

     We have hired a consultant, Mark Stacey, who will guide this process. 
     We will also be bringing in a consulting firm to do survey research and
     interviews to teach us more about our current readers, readers who won't
     buy us, and readers who would buy us if they had heard of us.  Our
     choice was between hiring staff to give us a plan or hiring consultants
     to give us a plan and then hiring permanent staff to execute it.  The
     latter is the safest-we avoid a staff without the skill to do what we
     need whom instead craft a plan to do what they already know.  In
     addition to this initiative, we are participating in the University of
     Texas Business School program where a team of graduate students will
     essentially parallel the work of our outside consultants, giving us a
     double check on the data. 

      

     The goal here is to have a marketing and sales plan in place for
     execution on January 1.  From where I sit, the biggest challenge we have
     is that too many people have never heard of us.  At a meeting I can
     encounter someone who has subscribed for years and next to him is a
     person in the same industry that has never heard of us.  It is difficult
     selling to people who have never heard of us.  So our challenge-before
     trying to sell to them-is to increase awareness of who we are.  This is
     called branding and it's different from selling.  It is the precursor. 
     We will start with branding in January. That means there will be
     marketing people around asking many questions in the coming months,
     frequently the same ones. Please work with all of them.  In the end, we
     will have a plan with a high likelihood of success.

      

     Parallel to all of this, the executives (without Don, Steve Feldhaus or
     myself-the board members) are going through a planning process of their
     own, coordinated by Frank Ginac.  Not being on it (and not wanting to be
     informed of what is going on as there should be yet another set of eyes
     on things other than mine) I can't tell you what they are doing. 
     However, the deal we have on this is that as CEO, I will proceed with
     implementing my own plans that I've outlined here, and will consider
     their proposals when I see them. If the decision point is past when they
     make their recommendation on a subject, the recommendation will not be
     considered.  If they come in with recommendations before decision
     points, their recommendations will be taken very seriously.  This allows
     the company to move forward and an alternative planning model to be
     brought on line when it is ready.

      

     The company has become too large and complex for any one person to know
     what is going on.  I am moving (with difficulty) from the role of an
     early entrepreneur, knowing everything going on and getting involved in
     it, to the CEO of a company at the inflexion point.   The inflexion
     point is the point all companies dream of and few achieve-when they
     start really taking off.  This is a great point and a dangerous one. 
     Unless the company changes the way it does things, inflexion aborts.  I
     am trying to change what I do.

      

     There are some things that have to remain my responsibility.  Building
     Intelligence and publishing and particularly training new staff are
     things that I should oversee.  Building the intelligence capabilities of
     the company along with Meredith is also my responsibility.  Creating new
     models to support Stratcap and helping to train Stratcap in the
     capabilities of Stratfor is mine. Overseeing our training of the Marine
     Corps is something I want to do.  Kendra will be my deputy for this, but
     this leaves a large load on me.

      

     Along with this, for better or worse, I am the public face of Stratfor. 
     My speeches and travels build the brand, create intelligence
     opportunities, and give me a clearer vision of how the world works.  I
     will be doing a lot of traveling to do these things, and I will combine
     them with the Geopolitical Journeys concept that seems to have hit a
     nerve.  During my travels I will be doing articles, videos and writing a
     book based on those journeys, on the world's borderlands.  Between that
     and making contacts for Stratfor and StratCap, I will be busy.

      

     Along with that load is going to be setting the broad direction of the
     company.  Through long and sometimes painful experience I have learned
     that ultimate responsibility can be delegated but not abandoned.  It's
     an old military principle that applies here. I have a vision for
     Stratfor and while I will delegate, I will not turn over responsibility
     because I can't.

      

     That means that we will need an evolving management structure.  I've
     asked Don who is formally President of Stratfor to join Darryl in both
     the day to day management of the company and in what we still call "the
     business side."  One day we will simply be one company, but right now we
     are still two sides of one company.  Don and Darryl will now manage that
     side, implementing our plans there.  I will not disappear, but become
     intermittent on daily management but deeply focused on intelligence.

      

     One of the other things I must do is prepare a succession plan.  In some
     parts that are well developed, I already have that plan.  In other
     parts, we have to build an organization to have a succession plan.  But
     it is my intention that Stratfor survive me (no, I'm not feeling poorly
     and can still kick your ass).  I want to build this into the world's
     finest intelligence service, private and free to speak its mind.  I see
     this as the most lasting contribution I can make, and I am serious about
     making sure Stratfor goes on.

      

     We are all at the inflexion point where the level of effort temporarily
     soars until new resources are brought on line.  They couldn't have been
     staged in earlier because there weren't resources available.  But now
     they can't wait, because the moment will pass and perhaps never return. 
     For everything there is a "now."  This is now.

      

     I ask only one specific thing of all of you. If you don't understanding
     anything here; if you want to learn more; if something worries you and
     your boss can't clear it up, come directly to me. I will be available
     until the last week of September when I go with others to Turkey. 
     Please, please, please, do not engage in a round of paranoia or
     speculation based on lack of data.  Just set a time to see me and let's
     discuss it.  StratFantasy (a new term) is I really believe the greatest
     danger to success that we have face.

      

     This is a long review, but many have said they'd like to know where we
     are and what we are doing.  This is about as comprehensive as I can get.
     There will be more such reports.  There are no short versions about
     where we are and what we are doing.

      

      

     OH YES-THIS IS FOR INTERNAL STRATFOR USE ONLY. DO NOT SHARE THIS
     DOCUMENT OR DISCUSS IT OUTSIDE OF STRATFOR.

      

     --

     George Friedman

     Founder and CEO

     STRATFOR

     221 West 6th Street

     Suite 400

     Austin, Texas 78701

      

     Phone: 512-744-4319

     Fax: 512-744-4334

      
</description>
    <date>2011-09-07 15:42:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2312421_re-fwd-labor-day-review-of-where-we-are-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>brad.foster@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sophie.steiner@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>phillip.orchard@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2321836</id>
    <title>[OS] MORE*: G3* - IRAN/UN/MIL - Iran IAEA report leaked
</title>
    <description>   Alot of information in this leak, similar to the one released yesterday,
   although this one really pushes the "iran is making weapons as we speak"
   line [johnblasing]

   IAEA may show recent bomb-related atom work by Iran

   http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/08/us-iran-nuclear-iaea-idUSTRE7A738S20111108

   VIENNA | Tue Nov 8, 2011 7:56am EST
   (Reuters) - A U.N. nuclear watchdog report due this week is expected to
   show recent activity in Iran that could help in developing nuclear bombs,
   including intelligence about computer modeling of such weapons, Western
   diplomats said on Tuesday.

   "There are bits and pieces of information that go up through 2010," one
   Vienna-based diplomat said.
   If confirmed in this week's keenly awaited document by the International
   Atomic Energy Agency, it could stimulate new debate about a controversial
   U.S. intelligence assessment in 2007 that Iran had halted outright
   "weaponization" work in 2003.
   It would heighten Western suspicions that Iran is resolved to pursue at
   least some of the research and development (R&amp;D) applicable to atom bombs,
   even if Tehran has made no apparent decision to actually build them, as
   diplomats believe.

   "There is still evidence there where I think the agency will be in a
   position to say that they have serious concerns coming up to the present
   day," said another envoy in the Austrian capital, where the IAEA is based.

   But Western officials and experts suggested that research and experiments
   pointing to military nuclear aims may not have continued on the same scale
   as before 2003, when Iran started coming under increased Western pressure
   over its nuclear work.

   "Iran is understood to have continued or restarted some R&amp;D activities
   since then," said nuclear proliferation analyst Peter Crail of the
   U.S.-based Arms Control Association, a research and advocacy group.

   Iran denies accusations it is seeking nuclear arms, saying they are based
   on forged documents. It says its uranium enrichment program is aimed at
   generating electricity so that it can export more of its abundant oil.

   Many conservative experts criticized the 2007 findings as inaccurate and
   naive, and U.S. intelligence agencies now believe Iranian leaders have
   resumed closed-door debates over the last four years about whether to
   build a nuclear bomb.

   "I suspect that the new IAEA report will play into the hands of U.S.
   conservative and Israeli critics of the 2007 NIE (National Intelligence
   Estimate), who had accused the U.S. intelligence community of playing down
   evidence of clandestine nuclear weapons activities in Iran," said Shannon
   Kile of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute think tank.

   "SERIOUS SCIENTIFIC INTENT"

   The IAEA report, due to be submitted to member states in the next few
   days, is expected to provide new evidence of explosives and physics
   research suggesting Iran is seeking the capability to design nuclear
   weapons.

   Some of the activities have little application other than atomic
   bomb-making, including computer modeling of a nuclear weapon, sources
   familiar with the document said.

   They said it would support intelligence reports that Iran built a large
   steel container at the Parchin military complex southeast of Tehran for
   the purpose of carrying out tests with high explosives usable for a
   nuclear chain reaction.

   "It is a forensic body of evidence that shows some serious scientific
   intent," one of the Western diplomats said.

   In February, U.S. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said
   Iran was "keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons in part by
   developing various nuclear capabilities that better position it to produce
   such weapons."

   Crail said Clapper's statements were not "inconsistent with the notion
   that some weapons-related R&amp;D has resumed which is not part of a
   determined, integrated weapons-development program of the type that Iran
   maintained prior to 2003."

   Mark Fitzpatrick, a director of the International Institute for Strategic
   Studies, said it was too early to say whether the IAEA report will cast
   doubt on the 2007 NIE assessment.

   "The U.S. intelligence community already has the information in the IAEA
   report," Fitzpatrick said, adding that Clapper as recently as March
   confirmed the belief that Iran had not made a decision to restart its
   nuclear weapons program.

   "The apparent disconnect between that statement and the leaks that have
   come out about the IAEA report probably pertain to the time frame of the
   weapons research and development and the level and scale of the activity
   that the IAEA apparently believes continued after 2003," he said.

   (Editing by Mark Heinrich)

   On 11/07/2011 09:02 AM, Chris Farnham wrote:

             I'm thinking we'll see a bucket load of items out of Iran, the
             US and Europe today regarding the coming IAEA report and all the
             politicing around it. Might as well have them all in one place
             for ease of reading [chris]

     Obviously waaaaay too much info here to rep. The key element of this
     item is the leaking of the info before the release of the report in
     order to prime/set the agenda by focusing on particular aspects and
     findings of the report. this leak is obviously a part of the concerted
     PR operation on behalf of the Israelis, US and possibly some Europeans
     and KSA. The items of the report are secondary in importance to the
     agenda that is being played out here to increase pressure on Iran,
     probably in the attempt to increase sanctions and push it to the top of
     the global consciousness thus giving the US increased leverage to
     bargain the best possible pull out of Iraq/Afghanistan [chris]

     there was a strange report of an anonymous speaker at a forum last
     friday, this may be related to that [johnblasing]

     IAEA says foreign expertise has brought Iran to threshold of nuclear
     capability

     http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iaea-says-foreign-expertise-has-brought-iran-to-threshold-of-nuclear-capability/2011/11/05/gIQAc6hjtM_print.html

     By Joby Warrick, Monday, November 7, 4:41 AM

     Intelligence provided to U.N. nuclear officials shows that Iran's
     government has mastered the critical steps needed to build a nuclear
     weapon, receiving assistance from foreign scientists to overcome key
     technical hurdles, according to Western diplomats and nuclear experts
     briefed on the findings.

     Documents and other records provide new details on the role played by a
     former Soviet weapons scientist who allegedly tutored Iranians over
     several years on building high-precision detonators of the kind used to
     trigger a nuclear chain reaction, the officials and experts said.
     Crucial technology linked to experts in Pakistan and North Korea also
     helped propel Iran to the threshold of nuclear capability, they added.

     The officials, citing secret intelligence provided over several years to
     the International Atomic Energy Agency, said the records reinforce
     concerns that Iran continued to conduct weapons-related research after
     2003 - when, U.S. intelligence agencies believe, Iranian leaders halted
     such experiments in response to international and domestic pressures.

     The U.N. nuclear watchdog is due to release a report this week laying
     out its findings on Iran's efforts to obtain sensitive nuclear
     technology. Fears that Iran could quickly build an atomic bomb if it
     chooses to has fueled anti-Iran rhetoric and new threats of military
     strikes. Some U.S. arms-control groups have cautioned against what they
     fear could be an overreaction to the report, saying there is still time
     to persuade Iran to change its behavior.

     Iranian officials expressed indifference about the report.

     "Let them publish and see what happens," said Iran's foreign minister
     and former nuclear top official, Ali Akbar Salehi, the semiofficial Mehr
     News Agency reported Saturday.

     Salehi said that the controversy over Iran's nuclear program is "100
     percent political" and that the IAEA is "under pressure from foreign
     powers."

     `Never really stopped'

     Although the IAEA has chided Iran for years to come clean about a number
     of apparently weapons-related scientific projects, the new disclosures
     fill out the contours of an apparent secret research program that was
     more ambitious, more organized and more successful than commonly
     suspected. Beginning early in the last decade and apparently resuming -
     though at a more measured pace - after a pause in 2003, Iranian
     scientists worked concurrently across multiple disciplines to obtain key
     skills needed to make and test a nuclear weapon that could fit inside
     the country's long-range missiles, said David Albright, a former IAEA
     official who has reviewed the intelligence files.
     "The program never really stopped," said Albright, president of the
     Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security. The
     institute performs widely respected independent analyses of nuclear
     programs in countries around the world, often drawing from IAEA data.

     "After 2003, money was made available for research in areas that sure
     look like nuclear weapons work but were hidden within civilian
     institutions," Albright said.

     U.S. intelligence officials maintain that Iran's leaders have not
     decided whether to build nuclear weapons but are intent on gathering all
     the components and skills so they can quickly assemble a bomb if they
     choose to. Iran has consistently maintained that its nuclear activities
     are peaceful and intended only to generate electricity.

     The IAEA has declined to comment on the intelligence it has received
     from member states, including the United States, pending the release of
     its report.

     But some of the highlights were described in a presentation by Albright
     at a private conference of intelligence professionals last week.
     PowerPoint slides from the presentation were obtained by The Washington
     Post, and details of Albright's summary were confirmed by two European
     diplomats privy to the IAEA's internal reports. The two officials spoke
     on the condition of anonymity, in keeping with diplomatic protocol.

     Albright said IAEA officials, based on the totality of the evidence
     given to them, have concluded that Iran "has sufficient information to
     design and produce a workable implosion nuclear device" using highly
     enriched uranium as its fissile core. In the presentation, he described
     intelligence that points to a formalized and rigorous process for
     gaining all the necessary skills for weapons-building, using native
     talent as well as a generous helping of foreign expertise.

     "The [intelligence] points to a comprehensive project structure and
     hierarchy with clear responsibilities, timelines and deliverables,"
     Albright said, according to the notes from the presentation.

     Key outside assistance

     According to Albright, one key breakthrough that has not been publicly
     described was Iran's success in obtaining design information for a
     device known as an R265 generator. The device is a hemispherical
     aluminum shell with an intricate array of high explosives that detonate
     with split-second precision. These charges compress a small sphere of
     enriched uranium or plutonium to trigger a nuclear chain reaction.

     Creating such a device is a formidable technical challenge, and Iran
     needed outside assistance in designing the generator and testing its
     performance, Albright said.

     According to the intelligence provided to the IAEA, key assistance in
     both areas was provided by Vyacheslav Danilenko, a former Soviet nuclear
     scientist who was contracted in the mid-1990s by Iran's Physics Research
     Center, a facility linked to the country's nuclear program. Documents
     provided to the U.N. officials showed that Danilenko offered assistance
     to the Iranians over at least five years, giving lectures and sharing
     research papers on developing and testing an explosives package that the
     Iranians apparently incorporated into their warhead design, according to
     two officials with access to the IAEA's confidential files.

     Danilenko's role was judged to be so critical that IAEA investigators
     devoted considerable effort to obtaining his cooperation, the two
     officials said. The scientist acknowledged his role but said he thought
     his work was limited to assisting civilian engineering projects, the
     sources said.

     There is no evidence that Russian government officials knew of
     Danilenko's activities in Iran. E-mails requesting comment from Russian
     officials in Washington and Moscow were not returned. Efforts to reach
     Danilenko through his former company were not successful.

     Iran relied on foreign experts to supply mathematical formulas and codes
     for theoretical design work - some of which appear to have originated in
     North Korea, diplomats and weapons experts say. Additional help appears
     to have come from the father of Pakistan's nuclear program, Abdul Qadeer
     Khan, whose design for a device known as a neutron initiator was found
     in Iran, the sources said. Khan is known to have provided nuclear
     blueprints to Libya that included a neutron initiator, a device that
     shoots a stream of atomic particles into a nuclear weapon's fissile core
     at the start of the nuclear chain reaction.

     One Iranian document provided to the IAEA portrayed Iranian scientists
     as discussing plans to conduct a four-year study of neutron initiators
     beginning in 2007, four years after Iran was said to have halted such
     research.

     "It is unknown if it commenced or progressed as planned," Albright said.
     The disclosures come against a backdrop of new threats of military
     strikes on Iran. Israeli newspapers reported last week that there is
     high-level government support in Israel for a military attack on Iran's
     nuclear installations.

     "One of the problems with such open threats of military action is that
     it furthers the drift towards a military conflict and makes it more
     difficult to dial down tensions," said Peter Crail, a nonproliferation
     analyst with the Arms Control Association, a Washington advocacy group.
     "It also risks creating an assumption that we can always end Iran's
     nuclear program with a few airstrikes if nothing else works. That's
     simply not the case."

     Special correspondent Thomas Erdbrink in Tehran contributed to this
     report.

       (Corr) Cleric asks IAEA head to avoid "lies"against Iran, save dignity
       of Agency

       At 0522 gmt, IRTV1 started airing the Id al-Adha prayer sermons in
       Tehran by Ayatollah Seyyed Ahmad Khatami live. Ayatollah Khatami
       listed 10 types of plots that America and Israel have resorted to
       against Iran during the past 32 year.

       He said: "During the past 32 years, we have witnessed different types
       of plots of the global arrogance against us, especially of the US and
       its illegitimate child, the Zionist regime. I have written down 10
       types of these [plots] - seven of which refer to the domestic field
       and three others the foreign field."

       He described "ethnic wars" as the first type of plots. Then he spoke
       about "assassinations" and said: "Over 12,000 people have been
       assassinated by the US and its agents in this country" He added that
       Iran possesses 100 "undeniable documents" that prove America's
       involvement in the assassinations inside the country and outside of
       it, in other countries.

       He referred to the "eight-year imposed war" (Iraq-Iran war) as the
       third type of plot and termed "influences up to the level of the
       president" as the fourth type of plots (reference to the 2009
       presidential candidate Mirhoseyn Musavi).

       Describing "coups" as the fifth type of plot, he said that six coups
       were initiated by the US in Iran, all of which, he said were "foiled"
       with the help of God.

       He called the "soft warfare and"1388 sedition" (2009 post-poll
       protests) are the sixth and seventh types of America's and Israel's
       plots against Iran.

       Regarding the foreign types of plots, Khatami said: "Eight: Intrusion
       into Afghanistan aimed at creating a base against the Islamic Iran.
       Nine: Intrusion into Iraq to establish control over Iran. 10: New
       Middle East, which was aimed at curbing the wave of the huge Islamic
       Revolution."

       He added that all these plots were "foiled" with the help of God.

       Source: Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1, Tehran, in
       Persian 0525gmt 07 Nov 11

       BBC Mon Alert ME1 MEPol sh

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

       Top cleric lists 10 types of US, Israel "plots" against Iran

       At 0522 gmt, IRTV1 started airing the Id al-Adha prayer sermons in
       Tehran by Ayatollah Seyyed Ahmad Khatami live. Ayatollah Khatami
       listed 10 types of plots that America and Israel have resorted to
       against Iran during the past 32 year.

       He said: "During the past 32 years, we have witnessed different types
       of plots of the global arrogance against us, especially of the US and
       its illegitimate child, the Zionist regime. I have written down 10
       types of these [plots] - seven of which refer to the domestic field
       and three others the foreign field."

       He described "ethnic wars" as the first type of plots. Then he spoke
       about "assassinations" and said: "Over 12,000 people have been
       assassinated by the US and its agents in this country" He added that
       Iran possesses 100 "undeniable documents" that prove America's
       involvement in the assassinations inside the country and outside of
       it, in other countries.

       He referred to the "eight-year imposed war" (Iraq-Iran war) as the
       third type of plot and termed "influences up to the level of the
       president" as the fourth type of plots (reference to the 2009
       presidential candidate Mirhoseyn Musavi).

       Describing "coups" as the fifth type of plot, he said that six coups
       were initiated by the US in Iran, all of which, he said were "foiled"
       with the help of God.

       He called the "soft warfare and"1388 sedition" (2009 post-poll
       protests) are the sixth and seventh types of America's and Israel's
       plots against Iran.

       Regarding the foreign types of plots, Khatami said: "Eight: Intrusion
       into Afghanistan aimed at creating a base against the Islamic Iran.
       Nine: Intrusion into Iraq to establish control over Iran. 10: New
       Middle East, which was aimed at curbing the wave of the huge Islamic
       Revolution."

       He added that all these plots were "foiled" with the help of God.

       Source: Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1, Tehran, in
       Persian 0522gmt 07 Nov 11

       BBC Mon Alert ME1 MEPol sh

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

         More anti-Western remarks attributed to Khatami [chris]

         Top clear asks IAEA chief to avoid "lies" against Iran, save dignity
         of Agency

         During the Id al-Adha sermons at Tehran University being aired live
         by IRTV1, Ayatollah Seyyed Ahmad Khatami referred to the upcoming
         IAEA report on Iran nuclear programme and addressed the
         Secretary-General of the Agency [Yukiya Amano], saying: "Do not
         insult the dignity of the International Atomic Energy Agency with
         your conduct."

         He added that if he [Amano] is used as a "week tool of the US" and
         acts against the "independent nation" of Iran and "publishes lies"
         in the form of a document then "whatever dignity is left of the
         Agency, will be wiped off."

         Thanking God for his blessings, he further said that all "plots"
         against Iran have always been "nullified".

         He added: "I explicitly tell America that the period of superpower
         has ended [for you]. America is being considered like an empty drum
         in the world, today. Neither are you the America of the past, nor
         the Islamic Iran is Iran of the past of during the Shah's time."

         He added that Iran today is a strong country that can confront any
         plot in a manner that will be a "lesson" for others.

         Source: Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1, Tehran, in
         Persian 0525gmt 07 Nov 11

         BBC Mon Alert ME1 MEPol sh

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

    Iran foreign minister terms Bushehr plant "symbol" of Iran-Russia ties   
                                                                             
    Text of report by Iranian official government news agency IRNA website   
                                                                             
    Tehran, 6 November, IRNA: Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said here on 
    Sunday [6 November] that Bushehr nuclear power plant is a symbol of      
    Iran-Russia cooperation.                                                 
                                                                             
    He made the remark in a meeting with new Russian Ambassador to Iran Leon 
    Jagarian, who submitted a copy of his credentials to Salehi.             
                                                                             
    "Bushehr power plant as a symbol of Iran-Russia cooperation proves that  
    the two countries can exchange views and cooperate at regional and       
    international levels.                                                    
                                                                             
    Pointing to the Iran-Russia excellent relations, Salehi said             
    unfortunately the volume of trade exchange between the two countries is  
    not enough while they have high potentials in this regard.               
                                                                             
    Expressing Iran's readiness to increase the current volume of economic   
    exchange by 10bn dollars, he said the two countries can expand their     
    cooperation in such fields as politics, economy, trade, culture, oil and 
    gas and power plant construction.                                        
                                                                             
    Jagarian described the recent meeting between the Iranian and Russian    
    presidents in Astana, Kazakhstan as a new phase in the two countries'    
    relations.                                                               
                                                                             
    He also expressed his country's readiness to cooperate with Iran at      
    regional and international levels.                                       
                                                                             
    Source: Islamic Republic News Agency website, Tehran, in English 1613gmt 
    06 Nov 11                                                                
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEPol sh                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

           Not on IRNA english yet - CR

    Attacking Iran would make US, Israel "pay heavy price" - official        
                                                                             
    Excerpt from report by Iranian news channel Press TV website             
                                                                             
    A member of Iran's Assembly of Expert says that the United States and    
    Israel will have to pay a heavy price for any military attack on Iran's  
    nuclear facilities.                                                      
                                                                             
    Seyyed Mahmud Alavi told IRNA on Sunday [6 November] that Washington and 
    Tel Aviv are aware of the fact that putting their anti-Iran threats into 
    practice would cost them dearly, and thus they would not become involved 
    in such folly.                                                           
                                                                             
    He stated that the US and Israel know that such empty threats cannot     
    intimidate Iran and also know that they would receive a crushing         
    response if they ever attack the Islamic Republic.                       
                                                                             
    [Passage omitted: background information]                                
                                                                             
    Source: Press TV website, Tehran, in English 1419gmt 06 Nov 11           
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEPol sh                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

             Transcript Ehud Barak interview
             Page last updated at 11:09 GMT, Sunday, 6 November 2011
             PLEASE NOTE "THE ANDREW MARR SHOW" MUST BE CREDITED IF ANY PART
             OF THIS TRANSCRIPT IS USED
             http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/andrew_marr_show/9632770.stm
             JEREMY VINE:

             Now by any standards Ehud Barak has had an astonishing career
             serving his country. Israel's Prime Minister during the Camp
             David negotiations with Yasser Arafat now serves as both Deputy
             Prime Minister and Defence Minister in the current government.
             Before entering politics, he was one of the country's most
             decorated soldiers carrying out the kind of military ops that
             are now the stuff of legend among many Israelis. So a man of
             peace or a man of war? When I met him in London recently, I
             began by asking why his government has authorised the building
             of more settlements despite international criticism.

             EHUD BARAK:

             We are building in Jerusalem. It's our capital. We are building
             in the Jewish neighbourhoods of Jerusalem. It's a city of
             700,000 people. You have to build and we will not accept anyone
             has the right to intervene in this. And we ...

             JEREMY VINE:

             (over) Well that is seen as speeding up, isn't it? That's seen
             as acceleration.

             EHUD BARAK:

             (over) No, it's not. No speeding up ... It's about numbers and
             pace, numbers per unit time. When Olmert was Prime Minister five
             years ago, we were building our defence minister twice the rate
             we are building now. When I was Prime Minister ten years ago, we
             were building four times the rate we are building right now. So
             it's not about the pace.

             JEREMY VINE:

             But why not ... Again it's about the symbolism. Why not just
             stop for a while because the other side see this as getting in
             the way, don't they?

             EHUD BARAK:

             No, no, the other side plays with it as a kind of manipulation
             to put certain preconditions into the dialogue. The reason that
             Olmert's government and my government could do it is because
             somehow we managed to convince the rest of the world that we are
             genuine in our talks and now we are facing more sophisticated
             Palestinian group which feels the zeitgeist behind them. They
             feel that they have good will from many international bodies, so
             they try to play with this issue of settlement. It really
             shouldn't matter because ...

             JEREMY VINE:

             Well you said something very, very interesting there - the
             phrases you've used - where you say you're dealing with a
             sophisticated Palestinian leadership now and they're very
             zeitgeisty and I couldn't have put it better myself in these
             questions. They're getting world opinion behind them, aren't
             they?

             EHUD BARAK:

             Yuh, yuh. We have to work properly to allow our people, our kind
             of spokesmen to talk more often to others, but it won't solve
             the issue. It cannot ...

             JEREMY VINE:

             (over) Are you frustrated at that?

             EHUD BARAK:

             I am a little bit frustrated by the fact that we cannot convince
             even some of our friends.

             JEREMY VINE:

             Okay, just to be clear. You accept that it strengthens Hamas if
             you go on building these settlements or not?

             EHUD BARAK:

             I don't think it relates to Hamas. Hamas basically is
             challenging Abu Mazen and the Palestinian authority. They are
             turning to terror. We cannot negotiate with them. Hamas are
             shooting at us rockets. You know just last week we got dozens of
             rockets in our southern part of the country. One man, father of
             four, was killed. That's something that cannot go together with
             peacemaking.

             JEREMY VINE:

             Let me change the subject.

             EHUD BARAK:

             (over) So it will be a challenge for Abu Mazen to take control
             over his own political system.

             JEREMY VINE:
             Alright, alright, I want to just move on because we haven't got
             much time. I want to talk to you about Iran as well. And I
             gather if we had the Israeli newspapers here and we opened them
             up, we would see that everyone in Israel is now thinking that
             you're getting ready to attack Iran. Is that right? Is that what
             people are saying?

             EHUD BARAK:

             Believe me, don't ... I do not try to underestimate the nature
             of the Iranian threat. That's a major threat for the stability
             of the whole region, probably of the whole world. A nuclear Iran
             - and they are determined to reach nuclear military capability -
             can open a major arms race, nuclear arms race in the whole
             Middle East. It can change the effectiveness of their supporting
             and their co-sponsoring of terror all around the region. They
             can ...

             JEREMY VINE:

             (over) Which is why the Israeli papers are saying aha, you're
             about to strike on them.

             EHUD BARAK:

             No, but I am telling it for years now. And they will intimidate
             neighbours in a much more effective way, especially when America
             and others are moving out of the region. I hope that the IAEA
             Report next week will tell the whole world a little bit more
             explicitly what they are really doing in regard to their nuclear
             plan.

             JEREMY VINE:

             (over) This is the narrative that's coming together. It's the
             missile test. It's the long range bombing plan. It's the IAEA
             Report which you mentioned. So they may say that Iran is getting
             closer to a bomb.

             EHUD BARAK:

             We strongly believe that sanctions are effective or could be
             effective if they are little and paralysing enough, that
             diplomacy could work if enough unity could be synchronised
             between the major players, but that no option should be removed
             from the table.

             JEREMY VINE:

             You have an amazing military record, and for those who don't
             know it, 19... - correct me if I'm wrong here - 1972 led the
             mission to free hostages on a Sabena flight; 1973, I read
             somewhere you dressed as a woman to assassinate - you're nodding
             - members of the PLO.

             EHUD BARAK:

             (over) Not as a hobby, yuh.

             JEREMY VINE:

             Okay. A scene in the film Munich reflected that. You were
             involved in Operation Entebbe in 1976; helped dismantle the
             Palestinian terror cell known as Black September. I'm thinking
             you're not really into diplomacy here. You would like to attack
             Iran.

             EHUD BARAK:

             No, I was also Foreign Affairs Minister of Israel and Prime
             Minister. In the last 15 years I didn't shot a single shot at
             anyone and I played a lot round the diplomatic saloons and the
             TV interviews as well. You know it's too serious. Israel is
             there. A person cannot choose his parents and a nation cannot
             choose its neighbours. We are living in a tough neighbourhood.
             No mercy for the weak, no second opportunity for those who
             cannot defend themselves. We would love to have the Canadians as
             our neighbours, but unfortunately the Americans got them. It's a
             tough neighbourhood and we have to be strong.

             JEREMY VINE:

             (over) One more because if you suddenly attack Iran next week, I
             want to make sure we've asked every question here. Have you got
             British support for that - for flying over them and dropping a
             bomb on their nuclear reactors?

             EHUD BARAK:

             I'm not going even to respond to this. May I say we are not ...
             don't worry about your next week programme, but the Iranian
             challenge is serious. This is something that should be prevented
             from happening. We have to stay there. We are strong. Israel is
             the strongest country a thousand miles around Jerusalem. We plan
             to remain the strongest country around. But we are at the same
             time peaceful. We are ready to make peace at any moment with any
             one of our neighbours.

             JEREMY VINE:

             So pretty cautious. Ehud Barak there, Israel's Defence Minister.
             No options ruled out on Iran.

             INTERVIEW ENDS

 --
 Clint Richards
 Global Monitor
 clint.richards@stratfor.com
 cell: 81 080 4477 5316
 office: 512 744 4300 ex:40841

             Iran Calligrapher's Association of North America, according to
             Google. Possibly not the entity being referred to below, though
             [chris]

             No idea what ICANA is... - CR

    Nuclear talks possible only if IAEA submits "honest" report - Iran       
    official                                                                 
                                                                             
    Text of report by Iranian news channel Press TV website                  
                                                                             
    An Iranian lawmaker says Iran has nothing to hide regarding its nuclear  
    programme and Tehran will only participate in negotiations if the UN     
    atomic agency is "honest" in its reports.                                
                                                                             
    Deputy Chairman of Iran's Majlis (parliament) National Security and      
    Foreign Policy Committee Esma'il Kowsari said that if the International  
    Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) resorts to deception then Iran "will set     
    conditions for talks."                                                   
                                                                             
    He went on to say that so long as the IAEA submits to the will of        
    arrogant powers particularly Washington, the agency's reports will       
    always be compiled to portray Iran in a negative light.                  
                                                                             
    "While the US has between 7,000 to 10,000 nuclear warheads and no other  
    country has atrocities such as Nagasaki and Hiroshima on its record, the 
    agency makes no effort to act against it (the US) and does not even dare 
    write a report against it," ICANA quoted him as saying on Sunday.        
                                                                             
    The IAEA director-general Yukiya Amano is scheduled to submit his new    
    report on Iran's nuclear case to IAEA member states on 8 November 2011.  
                                                                             
    However, Amano's visit to Washington for talks with US officials ahead   
    of the publication of the report has cast grave suspicion over its       
    objectivity and sincerity.                                               
                                                                             
    Iran has always rejected US allegations that it is pursuing a military   
    nuclear program and asserted the right to develop and acquire nuclear    
    technology for peaceful purposes as a signatory to the Non-Proliferation 
    Treaty [NPT].                                                            
                                                                             
    Source: Press TV website, Tehran, in English 1925gmt 06 Nov 11           
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEPol sh                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

             On 11/6/11 9:43 PM, Chris Farnham wrote:

               al-Ahkbar isn't in english - CR

                 Iran's Ahmadinejad defiant as U.S. raises heat-paper
                 http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/irans-ahmadinejad-defiant-as-us-raises-heat-paper/
                 06 Nov 2011 23:19

                 CAIRO, Nov 7 (Reuters) - The United States fears Iran's
                 growing military power because it is now able to compete
                 with Israel and the West, Iranian President Mahmoud
                 Ahmadinejad said in comments carried by an Egyptian
                 newspaper on Monday.

                 Responding to a toughening stance from the United States and
                 Israel against Tehran, Ahmadinejad accused Washington of
                 inventing conspiracies to discredit Iran and sowing discord
                 with its near neighbour Saudi Arabia.

                 "Yes, we have military capabilities that are different from
                 any other country in the region," Egyptian daily al-Akhbar
                 cited Ahmadinejad as saying. "Iran is increasing in
                 capability and advancement and therefore we are able to
                 compete with Israel and the West and especially the United
                 States."

                 "The U.S. fears Iran's capability," he told the paper. "Iran
                 will not permit (anyone from making) a move against it."
                 Iran's Islamic rulers, who say Israel has no right to exist,
                 deny accusations that they are seeking nuclear weapons and
                 have warned they will respond to any attacks by striking at
                 Israel and U.S. interests in the Gulf.

                 A senior U.S. military official said on Friday Iran had
                 become the biggest threat to the United States and Israel's
                 president said the military option to stop the Islamic
                 republic from obtaining nuclear weapons was nearer.

                 Ahmadinejad repeated that Iran does not own a nuclear bomb,
                 but said Israel's end was inevitable.
                 The U.N. nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, is expected this week
                 to issue its most detailed report yet on research in Iran
                 seen as geared to developing atomic bombs.

                 "It is Israel that has about 300 nuclear warheads. Iran is
                 only keen to have nuclear capability for peaceful means," he
                 said, accusing Washington of lumping Iran with Syria, the
                 Islamist Hamas movement that rules Gaza and Hezbollah in
                 Lebanon.

                 The U.S. portrays those four as "the Axis of Evil to save
                 the Zionist entity (Israel). But the Zionists are bound to
                 go out of existence," he said.

                 Responding to a U.S. claim that Iran was involved in a plot
                 to kill the Saudi ambassador to Washington, Ahmadinejad
                 said: "Iran is farthest from thinking of carrying out such
                 crimes but the U.S. is always inventing conspiracies against
                 Iran".

                 "The U.S. fears any friendship between us and Saudi Arabia
                 and therefore incites disagreements," he said. "To stop the
                 U.S. in its tracks we must deepen the elements of
                 friendship... We are ready for this and the relation between
                 Saudi and Iran already exists and has not been cut off."
                 (Reporting by Marwa Awad; Writing by Tom Pfeiffer; Editing
                 by Matthew Jones)

 --
 Clint Richards
 Global Monitor
 clint.richards@stratfor.com
 cell: 81 080 4477 5316
 office: 512 744 4300 ex:40841

 --
 Clint Richards
 Global Monitor
 clint.richards@stratfor.com
 cell: 81 080 4477 5316
 office: 512 744 4300 ex:40841

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +216 22 73 23 19
 www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-08 15:20:03</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2321836_-os-more-g3-iran-un-mil-iran-iaea-report-leaked-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ben.preisler@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:os@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2322484</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
	CODE
</title>
    <description>   Agree
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: scott stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:59:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;; Korena Zucha&lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Anya Alfano&lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   I'll bet cash they are connected to the Austin guys busted for the DNC
   plot plus some of the Austin Earth First jabronis. 
   From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 11:51:44 -0600
   To: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Anya Alfano &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;, Alpha List
   &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Have we seen Deep Green Resistance carry-out acts of violence in the
   past? 

   On 11/16/2011 6:38 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not "radical" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the "Phoenix Commune" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as "stupid, crazy motherfuckers", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, "Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-18 21:17:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2322484_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2323700</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged "Anonymous" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise "anonymous"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-10 19:47:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2323700_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2369651</id>
    <title>Fwd: Trouble Book PDF - v4
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2010-02-26 17:11:13</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2369651_fwd-trouble-book-pdf-v4-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>dial@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>jenna.colley@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/7/7133_Trouble_v4.pdf</path><size>1470919</size><md5></md5><sha1>3649c10eafe3a396776e7bc8f12e9ff6af3628a3</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/7/7134_Trouble_Cover_v3.pdf</path><size>218396</size><md5></md5><sha1>4f309342c580405c72bd261ebfaae380b3d057b1</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2378745</id>
    <title>Re: [Fwd: Re: [CT] Pakistan crash pictures]
</title>
    <description>Interesting factoid.

Comrade J (who is dead now) confirmed the KGB used the Zia murder on
PAK-1 as a case study in assassinations at their academy.

Brian Genchur wrote:
&gt; i think this is a great tearline topic...  fred's an expert is looking
&gt; at airplane crashes, he could diagram, and we also would have infinite
&gt; footage.  maybe he could even break this one down by looking at the
&gt; video (we show him watching it and breaking it down).
&gt; 
&gt; Brian Genchur
&gt; Multimedia
&gt; STRATFOR
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; ------------------------------------------------------------------------
&gt; *From: *"Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; *To: *"Marla Dial" &lt;dial@stratfor.com&gt;, "Grant Perry"
&gt; &lt;grant.perry@stratfor.com&gt;, "Brian Genchur"
&gt; &lt;brian.genchur@stratfor.com&gt;, "Andrew Damon" &lt;andrew.damon@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; *Sent: *Thursday, July 29, 2010 9:36:04 AM
&gt; *Subject: *[Fwd: Re: [CT] Pakistan crash pictures]
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; -------- Original Message --------
&gt; Subject: Re: [CT] Pakistan crash pictures
&gt; Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2010 09:33:45 -0500
&gt; From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; To: Ryan Abbey &lt;ryan.abbey@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; CC: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; References: &lt;830427280.445381.1280413631567.JavaMail.root@core.stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; 
&gt; Most aircraft crash scenes are (especially in Pakistan) where chaos is
&gt; the rule.  The initial search for live victims is the first step, than
&gt; everyone SHOULD be pulled back to a perimeter that is taped/cordoned
&gt; off.  Command &amp; control in the 3rd world doesn't exist.  Most crime and
&gt; crash scenes become contaminated with folks (citizens, fire, police,
&gt; military) parading through, destroying possible trace evidence.  The
&gt; stench from burning bodies is pretty bad if you are not use to it.
&gt; VICKS vapor rub under the nose helps.  Add the sun, heat and humidity,
&gt; the whole scene is pretty damn ripe.  Victim ID can also be problematic
&gt; without dental records.  Many bodies can burn together.
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; Ryan Abbey wrote:
&gt;&gt; Took an hour and 15 minutes to walk to the crash site (through forest,
&gt;&gt; with no paths) to get to the site.  [So at least that long, unless they
&gt;&gt; were flown in.]  Seemed like a pretty chaotic response - people milling
&gt;&gt; around - 300 volunteers or so.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;  
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/29/world/asia/29pstan.html
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; ------------------------------------------------------------------------
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; *From: *"Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt; *To: *"Ryan Abbey" &lt;ryan.abbey@stratfor.com&gt;, "CT AOR" &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt; *Sent: *Thursday, July 29, 2010 10:14:49 AM
&gt;&gt; *Subject: *Re: [CT] Pakistan crash pictures
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; How many hours after the crash were these pictures taken?
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Ryan Abbey wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; 'Tragic incident': Rescue officials work through the night recovering
&gt;&gt;&gt; bodies from the plane wreckage
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;  
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Difficult mission: Rescue workers sift through the remains of the plane
&gt;&gt;&gt; crash which killed 152 people
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;  
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; plane crash--
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Rescue mission: Pakistani helicopters fly over smoke and wreckage of the
&gt;&gt;&gt; plane in the Margalla Hills
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;  
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Fatalities: The bodies of at least 45 people have been found in densely
&gt;&gt;&gt; wooded hills near the crash scene
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;  
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Rescue workers rushed to the crash site about 9 miles from the Islamabad
&gt;&gt;&gt; airport. Fire had spread amid the thickly wooded hills.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;  
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Ryan Abbey
&gt;&gt;&gt; Tactical Intern
&gt;&gt;&gt; Stratfor
&gt;&gt;&gt; ryan.abbey@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; --
&gt;&gt; Ryan Abbey
&gt;&gt; Tactical Intern
&gt;&gt; Stratfor
&gt;&gt; ryan.abbey@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;
</description>
    <date>2010-07-29 18:20:49</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2378745_re-fwd-re-ct-pakistan-crash-pictures-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>dial@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>brian.genchur@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>grant.perry@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>andrew.damon@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2412768</id>
    <title>Feedback on MB piece 
</title>
    <description>&gt;From TrapWire (former CIA) --

Good piece -- should be required reading for Gibbs, Biden and Hillary before they start speaking off the cuff.

I'll make one personal observation: having worked in Cairo on joint-ops with both the internal and external Services, I can say the MB remains a significant threat in their eyes. Yes, the Brotherhood is "untested" when it comes to holding any kind of real political power; however, just like every Frenchmen was a "resistance fighter" in WWII, most Egyptians are loath to voice support for the Brotherhood publicly. The reason for this is simple: every time there's an assassination or a plot uncovered, the police and intel services round-up a couple thousand people and throw them in prison -- many for having done nothing more than voicing support for the MB or haven been seen in their company. Egyptians have learned to keep their cards close to their vests when it comes to opinions about the Brotherhood.

M
</description>
    <date>2011-02-02 17:04:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2412768_feedback-on-mb-piece-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>responses@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2509179</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] Fwd: [OS] CHINA/CSM/CT- Cisco Poised to Help China Keep an
	Eye on Its	Citizens
</title>
    <description>   I'm sitting here with a cisco guy.  What is the trapwire tech?  He's not
   involved with this project but let me know if there are any ques and I'll
   see what he can find out.

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Jul 4, 2011, at 8:55 PM, Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

     Maybe with talk of Trapwire technology and such we can provide some
     insight on this.  The addition of the cameras is not new, I think i had
     it in the bullets sometime earlier this year. 

     -------- Original Message --------

      Subject: [OS] CHINA/CSM/CT- Cisco Poised to Help China Keep an Eye on   
               Its Citizens                                                   
         Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2011 22:52:54 -0500                                
         From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;                         
     Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                  
           To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                  

         * JULY 5, 2011

     Censorship Inc.
     Cisco Poised to Help China Keep an Eye on Its Citizens
     Read more:
     http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304778304576377141077267316.html#ixzz1RCQsajlK
     By LORETTA CHAO in Beijing and DON CLARK in San Francisco
     [CISCO] Getty Images

     Cameras in Beijing's Tiananmen Square. U.S. firms can sell surveillance
     gear in China, but not equipment that is used only for crime control.

     Western companies including Cisco Systems Inc. are poised to help build
     an ambitious new surveillance project in Chinaa**a citywide network of
     as many as 500,000 cameras that officials say will prevent crime but
     that human-rights advocates warn could target political dissent.
     [CISCO_p1]

     The system, being built in the city of Chongqing over the next two to
     three years, is among the largest and most sophisticated
     video-surveillance projects of its kind in China, and perhaps the world.
     Dubbed "Peaceful Chongqing," it is planned to cover a half-million
     intersections, neighborhoods and parks over nearly 400 square miles, an
     area more than 25% larger than New York City.

     The project sheds light on how Western tech companies sell their wares
     in China, the Middle East and other places where there is potential for
     the gear to be used for political purposes and not just safety. The
     products range from Internet-censoring software to sophisticated
     networking gear. China in particular has drawn criticism for treating
     political dissent as a crime and has a track record of using technology
     to suppress it.

     An examination of the Peaceful Chongqing project by The Wall Street
     Journal shows Cisco is expected to supply networking equipment that is
     essential to operating large and complicated surveillance systems,
     according to people familiar with the deal.

     The U.S. has prohibited export of crime-control products to China (for
     instance, fingerprinting equipment) ever since Beijing's deadly 1989
     Tiananmen Square crackdown. But the U.S. restrictions don't prohibit
     sale of technologies such as cameras that can be used in many waysa**to
     tame, say, either traffic jams or democracy marches. This loophole
     troubles some critics. There is no indication that Cisco is selling
     products customized for crime control.
     More

         * Cisco Faces Lawsuits, Criticism Over Past China Activities

     Western companies' pursuit of sales in China underscores a fundamental
     question for businesses and policy makers alike: Should companies be
     held accountable if foreign governments use their products for political
     suppression?

     Cisco was brought in to the Chongqing project by Chinese security
     company Hikvision Digital Technology Co., the project's main contractor,
     Hikvision officials and others say. It is unclear whether Cisco's
     participation has been finalized, although one person familiar with the
     matter says it is close.

     Officials at Cisco, based in San Jose, Calif., declined to discuss its
     possible involvement in detail. A company spokesman stressed that Cisco
     "hasn't sold video cameras or video-surveillance solutions in any of our
     public infrastructure projects in China."

     The company has previously saida**including in a June blog post by
     Cisco's general counsel, Mark Chandlera**that the company strictly
     abides by the Tiananmen export controls and doesn't supply any gear to
     China that is "customized in any way" to facilitate repressive uses.

     View Full Image
     CISCO_jmp
     CISCO_jmp
     CISCO_jmp

     Cisco is the world's biggest maker of networking equipment, which
     includes routing and switching systems that send data between computers
     and connect systems to the Internet. The company has stirred controversy
     in the past for its China dealings.

     The Chongqing project is also attracting interest from other U.S.
     companies, including Alabama software maker Intergraph Corp.
     Hewlett-Packard Co. also expects to bid on part of the project,
     according to a senior H-P executive.

     The people familiar with the matter said H-P may be looking to supply
     servers or storage equipment for Peaceful Chongqing.

     Asked about concerns about political use of the system, Todd Bradley, an
     executive vice president who oversees H-P's China strategy, said in an
     interview last week in China, "We take them at their word as to the
     usage." He added, "It's not my job to really understand what they're
     going to use it for. Our job is to respond to the bid that they've
     made."
     Censorship Inc.

         * Mideast Uses Western Tools to Battle the Skype Rebellion 6/1/2011
         * Iran Vows to Unplug Internet 5/28/2011
         * U.S. Products Help Block Mideast Web 3/28/2011

     Another possible participant in the Chongqing project is Intergraph, a
     Huntsville, Ala., company that made a bid through Cisco to provide
     customized software for the effort, said Bob Scott, head of Intergraph's
     security group. It is unclear if the company, a unit of Sweden's Hexagon
     AB, will ultimately be hired.

     Although sale of surveillance technology to repressive nations is
     permissible, some critics have harsh words for companies that do so.
     "The business community is only hearing what it wants to hear and
     disregarding the rest," said Rep. Frank Wolf, a Virginia Republican who
     co-chairs the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, a nonpartisan rights
     group made up of members of Congress.

     Chongqing, a sprawling metropolis in southwestern China, is one of the
     most populous cities in the nation with an urban population of at least
     12 million. The hillside Yangtze River port, famous for spicy hot-pot
     and often covered in fog, was China's capital from 1938 to 1945. Today,
     it is being developed as a gateway to the country's western hinterland.

     Chongqing has gained prominence the past two years because of its
     Communist Party chief, Bo Xilai, a rising political star who has led a
     controversial crackdown on organized crime that some lawyers have
     criticized for what they say are violations of legal due process.

     View Full Image
     CISCO
     Getty Images

     Chongqing's party chief, Bo Xilai, led a controversial crime crackdown.
     CISCO
     CISCO

     Mr. Bo declined to comment. He is expected to become one of China's top
     leaders next year by being appointed to China's Politburo Standing
     Committee, the nation's top decision-making body.

     Chongqing's government has said it plans to invest more than $800
     million of its own in building the Peaceful Chongqing system. Another
     $1.6 billion is coming from other, unspecified sources, the city has
     said. Hikvision's president, Hu Yangzhong, said in an interview that
     government funds would go toward building the central surveillance
     network and installing a portion of the cameras, while more cameras
     would be installed by owners of residences, office buildings and
     othersa**all of which would be linked to the network.

     Video-surveillance systems can serve many purposes and are routinely
     used for benign purposes by cities world-wide to fight crime and ease
     traffic. Still, civil libertarians raise concerns including in the U.S.
     that the technology can invade privacy and is poorly regulated.

     Human-rights advocates say Chinese police have used surveillance footage
     to identify people in political protests. Jailed Chinese artist-activist
     Ai Weiwei, who was released last month, complained before he was
     apprehended on April 3 that police were using cameras to monitor him.

     Corinna-Barbara Francis, a researcher at Amnesty International, said
     surveillance footage has been used to identify and apprehend peaceful
     protesters in China, including in Xinjiang and Tibet. "In China there's
     ample evidence that they use" video surveillance "to crack down and then
     criminalize activity which should not be criminalized," Ms. Francis
     said.

     The Chongqing government declined to comment, as did China's Ministry of
     Public Security and the State Council Information Office. Chinese
     leaders have long argued that maintaining social stability and economic
     growth takes precedence over political rights.

     Hikvision's president, Mr. Hu, said he believes the project's goal is to
     cut crime, not target political dissidents. "China has a very serious
     public-security problem," he said in an interview last week. He blamed
     an epidemic of robbery and other crimes on the flood of poor migrants
     into China's cities and a growing wealth gap.

     Mr. Hu said Chongqing's new surveillance system will be tied in to an
     information network that Cisco is already building in the city, where
     Cisco has announced a high-profile alliance under a program it calls
     Smart+Connected Communitiesa**an initiative under which Cisco consults
     with governments around the world to use technology to tackle civic
     problems such as transportation, healthcare and education.

     According to the Chongqing government's website, Cisco Chief Executive
     John Chambers told the city's mayor in a meeting last year that he hoped
     the Smart+Connected project could create a "model in Chongqing which can
     be popularized in China."

     Executives at Western companies say they must weigh the possibility that
     technology could be misused against the business risks of missing out on
     a lucrative market. "We do have concerns," said Intergraph's Mr. Scott.
     "On the other hand, we want to do business there," he said, noting that
     the company's software is also used for environmental and other projects
     in China.

     "We're just the technology platform," he said, adding that it is the
     responsibility of the buyers "to meet and adhere to laws and policies"
     of their jurisdictions. Ultimately, Intergraph has "to manage the risk
     against the gain."

     In an April interview with the Journal, Bill Stuntz, general manager of
     Cisco's physical-security business, said Cisco gives careful
     consideration to how its products are used in China and doesn't want
     them to be used for repressive purposes. He declined to discuss specific
     projects in China but noted that sales of security equipment there have
     been expanding rapidly. He said Cisco is providing products that include
     networking equipment and servers along with support for some large
     video-surveillance systems, though not video cameras.

     China has become the fastest growing market for surveillance equipment,
     although it isn't yet the biggest, according to IMS Research, a U.K.
     firm that studies the market. The surveillance markets in the U.S. and
     Europe are growing at single-digit rates while surveillance-related
     revenue in China is growing at 23% a year. Surveillance-equipment sales
     alone, not including networking gear or software, totaled $1.7 billion
     last year.

     Chongqing's government says on its website that its current surveillance
     system is outdated, allowing police to directly tap into just 15,000 of
     the total 300,000 cameras. It wants the new system to be among the
     world's most advanced.

     Mr. Scott of Intergraph says Chongqing wants not only to increase camera
     count, but also to have video managed and delivered to dozens of police
     precincts and other organizations. The project presents challenges "that
     have not really been done anywhere else in the world," he said.

     Mr. Scott said his company spent three years developing software that
     enables multiple agencies to control cameras and also analyzes video
     feeds for unusual situations like fires or the formation of crowds.

     The number of surveillance cameras in Chinese cities including Chongqing
     appears to dwarf that of other cities around the world, though
     comparisons are tough because cities generally don't disclose their
     camera counts.

     A 2008 report by the state-run Xinhua news agency said Beijing had some
     280,000 cameras in its system. By comparison, privacy advocates in the
     U.S., including the American Civil Liberties Union, estimate Chicago has
     10,000 cameras. The New York Civil Liberties Union estimated in 2009
     that there were 8,000 cameras in New York.
     a**Kersten Zhang, Yoli Zhang, Jason Dean and Cari Tuna contributed to
     this article.

     Write to Loretta Chao at loretta.chao@wsj.com and Don Clark at
     don.clark@wsj.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 06:03:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2509179_re-ct-fwd-os-china-csm-ct-cisco-poised-to-help-china-keep-an.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>richmond@core.stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2509201</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] [OS] CHINA/CSM - Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in
 fraud probe
</title>
    <description>   Trapwire is software that integrates your security video hardware.

   On 7/5/11 1:22 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

     I agree with Alibaba and had flagged that too.  I didn't see the mention
     of trapwire in the story on Cisco.  Maybe I missed it.  Yes, keep me
     posted on any questions and I'll see what my contact can dig up.

     On 7/4/11 11:18 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       This is also a pretty good CSM topic.  some college kids running a
       scam through Alibaba (chinese ebay), took in a good amount of money. 

       If we had some good 'redism' related incidents, maybe I could write on
       that, but we'd need some very concise points to make. 

       Let me know what you guys think of this and the surveillance camera
       topic.

       Jen, I assume that Trapwire is a competitor to Cisco, but I'm not
       sure.  I don't know if trapwire makes the actual cameras or just does
       the analysis.   I won't have real questions till morning. 

       On 7/2/11 11:00 AM, Kevin Stech wrote:

         Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in fraud probe

         02 July 2011 - 08H10 

         http://www.france24.com/en/20110702-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-fraud-probe

          

         AFP - Police have arrested 36 people in southeast China following an
         investigation into fraud on e-commerce site Alibaba.com and other
         websites that duped buyers out of more than $6 million.

          

         Alizila.com, Alibaba's corporate news website, reported earlier this
         week the suspects were detained in Fujian province's Putian city in
         April. John Spelich, the firm's spokesman, confirmed the report to
         AFP on Saturday.

          

         The people arrested allegedly operated a criminal gang that used
         fake IDs to open more than 100 "Gold Supplier" accounts on
         Alibaba.com. This designation is given to those certified as highly
         trusted suppliers by the firm.

          

         This allowed the suspects to pose as legitimate companies selling to
         overseas businesses that source goods through Alibaba.com. Police
         said the alleged scammers also used other international trading
         websites.

          

         Alibaba.com, based in the eastern city of Hangzhou, has grown into
         one of China's largest Internet companies by matching mainland
         manufacturers and wholesalers with buyers around the world.

          

         But its reputation took a hit in February when the firm announced
         the resignation of chief executive David Wei and head of operations
         Elvis Lee after fraud was uncovered on the site.

          

         Wei and Lee were not involved in the scams but resigned because they
         took responsibility for "systemic breakdowns" that allowed the fraud
         to happen, Alibaba said at the time.

          

         But according to the Alizila report, the fraud was "sometimes
         abetted by Alibaba.com employees." But Spelich said Saturday none of
         the 36 arrested worked at the company.

          

         He added the number of fraud complaints received by the website in
         June was down 70 percent from February after Alibaba toughened
         procedures and other security measures.

          

         The report said Alibaba had refunded $1.9 million to those who lost
         their money to the alleged scammers.

         Click here to find out more!

          

         Kevin Stech

         Director of Research | STRATFOR

         kevin.stech@stratfor.com

         +1 (512) 744-4086

          

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 13:35:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2509201_re-ct-os-china-csm-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-in.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2539287</id>
    <title>Re: PUBLIC CONFESSION -the Lunch on me? scandal
</title>
    <description>   Ignore all following rules.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Adam Wagh &lt;adam.wagh@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: stratforaustin-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2011 14:28:35 -0500 (CDT)
   To: STRATFOR AUSTIN List&lt;stratforaustin@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: STRATFOR AUSTIN List &lt;stratforaustin@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: PUBLIC CONFESSION -the Lunch on me? scandal
   You have much to teach me Fred...Whats Fred's rule #1 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: stratforaustin@stratfor.com
   Sent: Tuesday, August 30, 2011 2:25:51 PM
   Subject: Re: PUBLIC CONFESSION -the Lunch on me? scandal

   You ate the bait.  

   Fred's rule # 2 -

   Admit nothing, deny everything and make counter-accusations. 

   On 8/30/2011 2:21 PM, Adam Wagh wrote:

     ATTENTION ALL - 
     Unfortunately, I think the culprit might be me. I usually keep a spare
     lunch in the freezer in case i forget to grab one before I leave the
     house (most often Amy's products including the pesto tortellini) and I
     did eat some today thinking it was my spare. I will of course replace
     the meal I ate, and try to be much more careful in the future. SORRY
     ROB!! 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Rob Bassetti" &lt;bassetti@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "STRATFOR AUSTIN List" &lt;stratforaustin@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Tuesday, August 30, 2011 1:42:59 PM
     Subject: Lunch on me?

     Now that I've got your attention, someone has taken the lunch that I
     brought in (Amy's Pesto Tortellini bowl in freezer).  A good rule of
     thumb regarding food is that you do not take and consume what you didn't
     purchase.  That's commonly known as stealing.

     Rob

     --
     Rob Bassetti
     STRATFOR
     Finance Department
     512-744-4081
     bassetti@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-08-30 21:37:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2539287_re-public-confession-the-lunch-on-me-scandal-.html</permalink>
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    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2556418</id>
    <title>[OS] MORE*: MORE*: G3* - IRAN/UN/MIL - Iran IAEA report leaked
</title>
    <description>   Next few hours?  I thought it was tomorrow.  It is an Iranian source after
   all.  [yp]
   IAEA Chief to Release US-Worded Report on Iran in Hours

   11/8/11

   http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=9007272576

   TEHRAN (FNA)- The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
   Director-General, Yukiya Amano, is due to release the UN nuclear
   watchdog's latest report on Iran's nuclear activities in the next few
   hours, while many even in the West believe that the report carries the US
   tone and wording on an IAEA paper.
      

   The western diplomats and sources had informed around a month ago that
   this report would contain some documents which have been presented to the
   IAEA by certain western countries and would show that Iran is pursuing a
   military drive in its nuclear program.

   Amano has reportedly attached a 15-page annexation to his report which
   will focus on the issue of Iran's alleged studies in the field of military
   nuclear activities.

   Diplomats in Tehran say Amano received the last orders from Washington on
   this report during his last week trip to the US and that's why he shrugged
   off the last week demands by Russia, China and some European countries as
   well as the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) member states that he respect UN
   impartiality and adopt a fair approach towards Iran's nuclear issue in his
   coming report.

   Nuclear experts both in Tehran and the IAEA Secretariat believe that the
   annexation won't be defendable from technical and legal perspectives and
   will "rapidly turn into a crisis for the IAEA" and will discredit the UN
   body.

   A look at the following points would show the shallow depth and
   unreliability of Amano's upcoming report on Iran:

   1- None of the documents presented in the November 2011 report is new and
   all of them are related to the contents of a laptop computer which the
   US-led West alleges to have been stolen from Iran and was brought up first
   in 2004. In fact the release of these documents show that Amano - despite
   his claims - has no up-to-date information or data about the alleged
   studies and his information is what was presented in 2004. This proves
   that all IAEA allegations and claims in its recent reports that it has
   information to prove Iran has been pursuing a military nuclear drive after
   2004 have all been nothing but a lie.
   2- Neither Iran nor the IAEA has ever witnessed these documents. Since
   2007, both Iran and the IAEA have been demanding that the original version
   of these so-called documents be presented to an independent team to go
   under veracity checks, but Americans have always refrained from doing so.
   This lack of cooperation annoyed the former IAEA Chief, Mohamed ElBaradei,
   so deeply that he repeatedly accused Americans of non-compliance with the
   IAEA safeguard tasks and undertakings. More importantly, Americans
   apparently have only one electronic file and do not have any original
   document. In fact, there is no original document in the case of the
   alleged studies. Iran proved to the IAEA in a 117-page assessment in 2008
   that these so-called documents are fake, but Amano makes no reference to
   Iran's assessment in his report.
   3- Basically speaking, neither the IAEA nor any other side is able to
   prove that these documents are related to Iran, even if we assume they are
   authentic. In other words, sowing and compiling a series of texts and
   documents in the Persian language and forging a number of seals and
   signatures and headings can never prove that these documents really belong
   to the state bodies in Iran.
   4- There is no document to prove that what the IAEA calls alleged studies
   pertain to the use of nuclear materials and the abovementioned documents
   are silent in this regard as well. Thus, in case we assume these documents
   as authentic, they can pertain to conventional military activities and the
   claim that they are related to military nuclear activities is wrong
   because it is not supported by any information or evidence.
   5- Once again even if we consider these documents to be authentic, all
   what they show is a series of computer simulations, and not practice or
   activity. It is essentially due to the very same reason that the IAEA has
   called this project as "alleged studies". There is no proof in these
   documents to show that these studies have been put into practice.

   The abovementioned points reveal that the attachment to Amano's upcoming
   report is, in fact, not a document in the real sense of the matter, but a
   collection of forged information which has been attached to the report
   under the US political pressure.

   Diplomats say that US Ambassador to the IAEA Glyn Davies has prepared a
   16-page report since yesterday and has been personally in contact with the
   western media and reporters to brief them on the IAEA report in a bid to
   release it with maximum media propaganda and ballyhoo against Iran.

   Excerpts of this report which has been released by certain western media
   show the same words and statements which have been frequently stated in
   IAEA reports since 2004 which were refuted by Iran in its 117-page
   assessment in May 2008.

   Now Mr. Amano, who according to the documents released by the WikiLeaks
   has promised the Americans to check all its measures and appointments with
   them, has apparently been given the mission to release the forged
   information and materials of the CIA in the form of an IAEA report, while
   many experts believe that these documents have been forged very naively
   and their release would totally discredit the IAEA.

   Experts say that parts of this report, including paragraphs 23 and 24 have
   been copy-pasted from the Untied States' 2008 National Intelligence
   Estimate (NIE).

   In 2007, Washington released the annual National Intelligence Estimate by
   16 US intelligence bodies that endorsed the civilian nature of Iran's
   programs. The 2007 NIE mentioned that Iran has not been pursuing a
   military nuclear activity since 2003. Hence, the report discredited the US
   because it undermined Washington's efforts to push further sanctions on
   Iran. To make up for this goof, the US alleged in its 2008 NIE that
   aspects of these military activities might have been continued after 2003
   and now we can see that the same allegations have been copy-pasted from
   the 2008 NIE to the 2011 IAEA report on Iran (paragraphs 23 &amp; 24) and Mr.
   Director-General has not even bothered to make some minute changes in the
   wording of these materials.

   Another ridiculous point pertains to paragraphs 47-53 of the coming IAEA
   report. In this part of the IAEA report which has actually been written by
   the US Ambassador to the IAEA Glyn Davies, Mr. Amano claims that Iran has
   carried out a number of hydrodynamic computer simulations for
   manufacturing nuclear weapons. It has also been mentioned in this part
   that the IAEA has a number of satellite images of a metal bunker used for
   nuclear weapons tests in Parchin facility.

   These parts of Amano's report are the result of a job carried out by
   Ferederic Claude, an agent of the French Intelligence Service, who had
   earlier been in charge of satellite imaging at the IAEA and is now Amano's
   advisor. It is noteworthy that Claude, accompanied by IAEA Deputy Director
   General for Safeguards Olli Heinonen, brought these pictures to Tehran a
   few years ago and asked for a visit to Parchin facility. In response, Iran
   allowed the IAEA inspectors to visit any part of Parchin that they wanted
   and carry out sampling tests. The result of that visit revealed that
   first, what Mr. Claude called a metal bunker or container for building
   bombs was actually a metal toilet in Parchin, and second the samplings
   showed no nuclear activity in Parchin and that's why the IAEA closed the
   case with Parchin facility.

   On 11/8/11 8:20 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

     Alot of information in this leak, similar to the one released yesterday,
     although this one really pushes the "iran is making weapons as we speak"
     line [johnblasing]

     IAEA may show recent bomb-related atom work by Iran

     http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/08/us-iran-nuclear-iaea-idUSTRE7A738S20111108

     VIENNA | Tue Nov 8, 2011 7:56am EST
     (Reuters) - A U.N. nuclear watchdog report due this week is expected to
     show recent activity in Iran that could help in developing nuclear
     bombs, including intelligence about computer modeling of such weapons,
     Western diplomats said on Tuesday.

     "There are bits and pieces of information that go up through 2010," one
     Vienna-based diplomat said.
     If confirmed in this week's keenly awaited document by the International
     Atomic Energy Agency, it could stimulate new debate about a
     controversial U.S. intelligence assessment in 2007 that Iran had halted
     outright "weaponization" work in 2003.
     It would heighten Western suspicions that Iran is resolved to pursue at
     least some of the research and development (R&amp;D) applicable to atom
     bombs, even if Tehran has made no apparent decision to actually build
     them, as diplomats believe.

     "There is still evidence there where I think the agency will be in a
     position to say that they have serious concerns coming up to the present
     day," said another envoy in the Austrian capital, where the IAEA is
     based.

     But Western officials and experts suggested that research and
     experiments pointing to military nuclear aims may not have continued on
     the same scale as before 2003, when Iran started coming under increased
     Western pressure over its nuclear work.

     "Iran is understood to have continued or restarted some R&amp;D activities
     since then," said nuclear proliferation analyst Peter Crail of the
     U.S.-based Arms Control Association, a research and advocacy group.

     Iran denies accusations it is seeking nuclear arms, saying they are
     based on forged documents. It says its uranium enrichment program is
     aimed at generating electricity so that it can export more of its
     abundant oil.

     Many conservative experts criticized the 2007 findings as inaccurate and
     naive, and U.S. intelligence agencies now believe Iranian leaders have
     resumed closed-door debates over the last four years about whether to
     build a nuclear bomb.

     "I suspect that the new IAEA report will play into the hands of U.S.
     conservative and Israeli critics of the 2007 NIE (National Intelligence
     Estimate), who had accused the U.S. intelligence community of playing
     down evidence of clandestine nuclear weapons activities in Iran," said
     Shannon Kile of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
     think tank.

     "SERIOUS SCIENTIFIC INTENT"

     The IAEA report, due to be submitted to member states in the next few
     days, is expected to provide new evidence of explosives and physics
     research suggesting Iran is seeking the capability to design nuclear
     weapons.

     Some of the activities have little application other than atomic
     bomb-making, including computer modeling of a nuclear weapon, sources
     familiar with the document said.

     They said it would support intelligence reports that Iran built a large
     steel container at the Parchin military complex southeast of Tehran for
     the purpose of carrying out tests with high explosives usable for a
     nuclear chain reaction.

     "It is a forensic body of evidence that shows some serious scientific
     intent," one of the Western diplomats said.

     In February, U.S. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said
     Iran was "keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons in part by
     developing various nuclear capabilities that better position it to
     produce such weapons."

     Crail said Clapper's statements were not "inconsistent with the notion
     that some weapons-related R&amp;D has resumed which is not part of a
     determined, integrated weapons-development program of the type that Iran
     maintained prior to 2003."

     Mark Fitzpatrick, a director of the International Institute for
     Strategic Studies, said it was too early to say whether the IAEA report
     will cast doubt on the 2007 NIE assessment.

     "The U.S. intelligence community already has the information in the IAEA
     report," Fitzpatrick said, adding that Clapper as recently as March
     confirmed the belief that Iran had not made a decision to restart its
     nuclear weapons program.

     "The apparent disconnect between that statement and the leaks that have
     come out about the IAEA report probably pertain to the time frame of the
     weapons research and development and the level and scale of the activity
     that the IAEA apparently believes continued after 2003," he said.

     (Editing by Mark Heinrich)

     On 11/07/2011 09:02 AM, Chris Farnham wrote:

               I'm thinking we'll see a bucket load of items out of Iran, the
               US and Europe today regarding the coming IAEA report and all
               the politicing around it. Might as well have them all in one
               place for ease of reading [chris]

       Obviously waaaaay too much info here to rep. The key element of this
       item is the leaking of the info before the release of the report in
       order to prime/set the agenda by focusing on particular aspects and
       findings of the report. this leak is obviously a part of the concerted
       PR operation on behalf of the Israelis, US and possibly some Europeans
       and KSA. The items of the report are secondary in importance to the
       agenda that is being played out here to increase pressure on Iran,
       probably in the attempt to increase sanctions and push it to the top
       of the global consciousness thus giving the US increased leverage to
       bargain the best possible pull out of Iraq/Afghanistan [chris]

       there was a strange report of an anonymous speaker at a forum last
       friday, this may be related to that [johnblasing]

       IAEA says foreign expertise has brought Iran to threshold of nuclear
       capability

       http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iaea-says-foreign-expertise-has-brought-iran-to-threshold-of-nuclear-capability/2011/11/05/gIQAc6hjtM_print.html

       By Joby Warrick, Monday, November 7, 4:41 AM

       Intelligence provided to U.N. nuclear officials shows that Iran's
       government has mastered the critical steps needed to build a nuclear
       weapon, receiving assistance from foreign scientists to overcome key
       technical hurdles, according to Western diplomats and nuclear experts
       briefed on the findings.

       Documents and other records provide new details on the role played by
       a former Soviet weapons scientist who allegedly tutored Iranians over
       several years on building high-precision detonators of the kind used
       to trigger a nuclear chain reaction, the officials and experts said.
       Crucial technology linked to experts in Pakistan and North Korea also
       helped propel Iran to the threshold of nuclear capability, they added.

       The officials, citing secret intelligence provided over several years
       to the International Atomic Energy Agency, said the records reinforce
       concerns that Iran continued to conduct weapons-related research after
       2003 - when, U.S. intelligence agencies believe, Iranian leaders
       halted such experiments in response to international and domestic
       pressures.

       The U.N. nuclear watchdog is due to release a report this week laying
       out its findings on Iran's efforts to obtain sensitive nuclear
       technology. Fears that Iran could quickly build an atomic bomb if it
       chooses to has fueled anti-Iran rhetoric and new threats of military
       strikes. Some U.S. arms-control groups have cautioned against what
       they fear could be an overreaction to the report, saying there is
       still time to persuade Iran to change its behavior.

       Iranian officials expressed indifference about the report.

       "Let them publish and see what happens," said Iran's foreign minister
       and former nuclear top official, Ali Akbar Salehi, the semiofficial
       Mehr News Agency reported Saturday.

       Salehi said that the controversy over Iran's nuclear program is "100
       percent political" and that the IAEA is "under pressure from foreign
       powers."

       `Never really stopped'

       Although the IAEA has chided Iran for years to come clean about a
       number of apparently weapons-related scientific projects, the new
       disclosures fill out the contours of an apparent secret research
       program that was more ambitious, more organized and more successful
       than commonly suspected. Beginning early in the last decade and
       apparently resuming - though at a more measured pace - after a pause
       in 2003, Iranian scientists worked concurrently across multiple
       disciplines to obtain key skills needed to make and test a nuclear
       weapon that could fit inside the country's long-range missiles, said
       David Albright, a former IAEA official who has reviewed the
       intelligence files.
       "The program never really stopped," said Albright, president of the
       Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security. The
       institute performs widely respected independent analyses of nuclear
       programs in countries around the world, often drawing from IAEA data.

       "After 2003, money was made available for research in areas that sure
       look like nuclear weapons work but were hidden within civilian
       institutions," Albright said.

       U.S. intelligence officials maintain that Iran's leaders have not
       decided whether to build nuclear weapons but are intent on gathering
       all the components and skills so they can quickly assemble a bomb if
       they choose to. Iran has consistently maintained that its nuclear
       activities are peaceful and intended only to generate electricity.

       The IAEA has declined to comment on the intelligence it has received
       from member states, including the United States, pending the release
       of its report.

       But some of the highlights were described in a presentation by
       Albright at a private conference of intelligence professionals last
       week. PowerPoint slides from the presentation were obtained by The
       Washington Post, and details of Albright's summary were confirmed by
       two European diplomats privy to the IAEA's internal reports. The two
       officials spoke on the condition of anonymity, in keeping with
       diplomatic protocol.

       Albright said IAEA officials, based on the totality of the evidence
       given to them, have concluded that Iran "has sufficient information to
       design and produce a workable implosion nuclear device" using highly
       enriched uranium as its fissile core. In the presentation, he
       described intelligence that points to a formalized and rigorous
       process for gaining all the necessary skills for weapons-building,
       using native talent as well as a generous helping of foreign
       expertise.

       "The [intelligence] points to a comprehensive project structure and
       hierarchy with clear responsibilities, timelines and deliverables,"
       Albright said, according to the notes from the presentation.

       Key outside assistance

       According to Albright, one key breakthrough that has not been publicly
       described was Iran's success in obtaining design information for a
       device known as an R265 generator. The device is a hemispherical
       aluminum shell with an intricate array of high explosives that
       detonate with split-second precision. These charges compress a small
       sphere of enriched uranium or plutonium to trigger a nuclear chain
       reaction.

       Creating such a device is a formidable technical challenge, and Iran
       needed outside assistance in designing the generator and testing its
       performance, Albright said.

       According to the intelligence provided to the IAEA, key assistance in
       both areas was provided by Vyacheslav Danilenko, a former Soviet
       nuclear scientist who was contracted in the mid-1990s by Iran's
       Physics Research Center, a facility linked to the country's nuclear
       program. Documents provided to the U.N. officials showed that
       Danilenko offered assistance to the Iranians over at least five years,
       giving lectures and sharing research papers on developing and testing
       an explosives package that the Iranians apparently incorporated into
       their warhead design, according to two officials with access to the
       IAEA's confidential files.

       Danilenko's role was judged to be so critical that IAEA investigators
       devoted considerable effort to obtaining his cooperation, the two
       officials said. The scientist acknowledged his role but said he
       thought his work was limited to assisting civilian engineering
       projects, the sources said.

       There is no evidence that Russian government officials knew of
       Danilenko's activities in Iran. E-mails requesting comment from
       Russian officials in Washington and Moscow were not returned. Efforts
       to reach Danilenko through his former company were not successful.

       Iran relied on foreign experts to supply mathematical formulas and
       codes for theoretical design work - some of which appear to have
       originated in North Korea, diplomats and weapons experts say.
       Additional help appears to have come from the father of Pakistan's
       nuclear program, Abdul Qadeer Khan, whose design for a device known as
       a neutron initiator was found in Iran, the sources said. Khan is known
       to have provided nuclear blueprints to Libya that included a neutron
       initiator, a device that shoots a stream of atomic particles into a
       nuclear weapon's fissile core at the start of the nuclear chain
       reaction.

       One Iranian document provided to the IAEA portrayed Iranian scientists
       as discussing plans to conduct a four-year study of neutron initiators
       beginning in 2007, four years after Iran was said to have halted such
       research.

       "It is unknown if it commenced or progressed as planned," Albright
       said.
       The disclosures come against a backdrop of new threats of military
       strikes on Iran. Israeli newspapers reported last week that there is
       high-level government support in Israel for a military attack on
       Iran's nuclear installations.

       "One of the problems with such open threats of military action is that
       it furthers the drift towards a military conflict and makes it more
       difficult to dial down tensions," said Peter Crail, a nonproliferation
       analyst with the Arms Control Association, a Washington advocacy
       group. "It also risks creating an assumption that we can always end
       Iran's nuclear program with a few airstrikes if nothing else works.
       That's simply not the case."

       Special correspondent Thomas Erdbrink in Tehran contributed to this
       report.

         (Corr) Cleric asks IAEA head to avoid "lies"against Iran, save
         dignity of Agency

         At 0522 gmt, IRTV1 started airing the Id al-Adha prayer sermons in
         Tehran by Ayatollah Seyyed Ahmad Khatami live. Ayatollah Khatami
         listed 10 types of plots that America and Israel have resorted to
         against Iran during the past 32 year.

         He said: "During the past 32 years, we have witnessed different
         types of plots of the global arrogance against us, especially of the
         US and its illegitimate child, the Zionist regime. I have written
         down 10 types of these [plots] - seven of which refer to the
         domestic field and three others the foreign field."

         He described "ethnic wars" as the first type of plots. Then he spoke
         about "assassinations" and said: "Over 12,000 people have been
         assassinated by the US and its agents in this country" He added that
         Iran possesses 100 "undeniable documents" that prove America's
         involvement in the assassinations inside the country and outside of
         it, in other countries.

         He referred to the "eight-year imposed war" (Iraq-Iran war) as the
         third type of plot and termed "influences up to the level of the
         president" as the fourth type of plots (reference to the 2009
         presidential candidate Mirhoseyn Musavi).

         Describing "coups" as the fifth type of plot, he said that six coups
         were initiated by the US in Iran, all of which, he said were
         "foiled" with the help of God.

         He called the "soft warfare and"1388 sedition" (2009 post-poll
         protests) are the sixth and seventh types of America's and Israel's
         plots against Iran.

         Regarding the foreign types of plots, Khatami said: "Eight:
         Intrusion into Afghanistan aimed at creating a base against the
         Islamic Iran. Nine: Intrusion into Iraq to establish control over
         Iran. 10: New Middle East, which was aimed at curbing the wave of
         the huge Islamic Revolution."

         He added that all these plots were "foiled" with the help of God.

         Source: Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1, Tehran, in
         Persian 0525gmt 07 Nov 11

         BBC Mon Alert ME1 MEPol sh

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

         Top cleric lists 10 types of US, Israel "plots" against Iran

         At 0522 gmt, IRTV1 started airing the Id al-Adha prayer sermons in
         Tehran by Ayatollah Seyyed Ahmad Khatami live. Ayatollah Khatami
         listed 10 types of plots that America and Israel have resorted to
         against Iran during the past 32 year.

         He said: "During the past 32 years, we have witnessed different
         types of plots of the global arrogance against us, especially of the
         US and its illegitimate child, the Zionist regime. I have written
         down 10 types of these [plots] - seven of which refer to the
         domestic field and three others the foreign field."

         He described "ethnic wars" as the first type of plots. Then he spoke
         about "assassinations" and said: "Over 12,000 people have been
         assassinated by the US and its agents in this country" He added that
         Iran possesses 100 "undeniable documents" that prove America's
         involvement in the assassinations inside the country and outside of
         it, in other countries.

         He referred to the "eight-year imposed war" (Iraq-Iran war) as the
         third type of plot and termed "influences up to the level of the
         president" as the fourth type of plots (reference to the 2009
         presidential candidate Mirhoseyn Musavi).

         Describing "coups" as the fifth type of plot, he said that six coups
         were initiated by the US in Iran, all of which, he said were
         "foiled" with the help of God.

         He called the "soft warfare and"1388 sedition" (2009 post-poll
         protests) are the sixth and seventh types of America's and Israel's
         plots against Iran.

         Regarding the foreign types of plots, Khatami said: "Eight:
         Intrusion into Afghanistan aimed at creating a base against the
         Islamic Iran. Nine: Intrusion into Iraq to establish control over
         Iran. 10: New Middle East, which was aimed at curbing the wave of
         the huge Islamic Revolution."

         He added that all these plots were "foiled" with the help of God.

         Source: Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1, Tehran, in
         Persian 0522gmt 07 Nov 11

         BBC Mon Alert ME1 MEPol sh

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

           More anti-Western remarks attributed to Khatami [chris]

           Top clear asks IAEA chief to avoid "lies" against Iran, save
           dignity of Agency

           During the Id al-Adha sermons at Tehran University being aired
           live by IRTV1, Ayatollah Seyyed Ahmad Khatami referred to the
           upcoming IAEA report on Iran nuclear programme and addressed the
           Secretary-General of the Agency [Yukiya Amano], saying: "Do not
           insult the dignity of the International Atomic Energy Agency with
           your conduct."

           He added that if he [Amano] is used as a "week tool of the US" and
           acts against the "independent nation" of Iran and "publishes lies"
           in the form of a document then "whatever dignity is left of the
           Agency, will be wiped off."

           Thanking God for his blessings, he further said that all "plots"
           against Iran have always been "nullified".

           He added: "I explicitly tell America that the period of superpower
           has ended [for you]. America is being considered like an empty
           drum in the world, today. Neither are you the America of the past,
           nor the Islamic Iran is Iran of the past of during the Shah's
           time."

           He added that Iran today is a strong country that can confront any
           plot in a manner that will be a "lesson" for others.

           Source: Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1, Tehran,
           in Persian 0525gmt 07 Nov 11

           BBC Mon Alert ME1 MEPol sh

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

    Iran foreign minister terms Bushehr plant "symbol" of Iran-Russia ties   
                                                                             
    Text of report by Iranian official government news agency IRNA website   
                                                                             
    Tehran, 6 November, IRNA: Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said here on 
    Sunday [6 November] that Bushehr nuclear power plant is a symbol of      
    Iran-Russia cooperation.                                                 
                                                                             
    He made the remark in a meeting with new Russian Ambassador to Iran Leon 
    Jagarian, who submitted a copy of his credentials to Salehi.             
                                                                             
    "Bushehr power plant as a symbol of Iran-Russia cooperation proves that  
    the two countries can exchange views and cooperate at regional and       
    international levels.                                                    
                                                                             
    Pointing to the Iran-Russia excellent relations, Salehi said             
    unfortunately the volume of trade exchange between the two countries is  
    not enough while they have high potentials in this regard.               
                                                                             
    Expressing Iran's readiness to increase the current volume of economic   
    exchange by 10bn dollars, he said the two countries can expand their     
    cooperation in such fields as politics, economy, trade, culture, oil and 
    gas and power plant construction.                                        
                                                                             
    Jagarian described the recent meeting between the Iranian and Russian    
    presidents in Astana, Kazakhstan as a new phase in the two countries'    
    relations.                                                               
                                                                             
    He also expressed his country's readiness to cooperate with Iran at      
    regional and international levels.                                       
                                                                             
    Source: Islamic Republic News Agency website, Tehran, in English 1613gmt 
    06 Nov 11                                                                
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEPol sh                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

             Not on IRNA english yet - CR

    Attacking Iran would make US, Israel "pay heavy price" - official        
                                                                             
    Excerpt from report by Iranian news channel Press TV website             
                                                                             
    A member of Iran's Assembly of Expert says that the United States and    
    Israel will have to pay a heavy price for any military attack on Iran's  
    nuclear facilities.                                                      
                                                                             
    Seyyed Mahmud Alavi told IRNA on Sunday [6 November] that Washington and 
    Tel Aviv are aware of the fact that putting their anti-Iran threats into 
    practice would cost them dearly, and thus they would not become involved 
    in such folly.                                                           
                                                                             
    He stated that the US and Israel know that such empty threats cannot     
    intimidate Iran and also know that they would receive a crushing         
    response if they ever attack the Islamic Republic.                       
                                                                             
    [Passage omitted: background information]                                
                                                                             
    Source: Press TV website, Tehran, in English 1419gmt 06 Nov 11           
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEPol sh                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

               Transcript Ehud Barak interview
               Page last updated at 11:09 GMT, Sunday, 6 November 2011
               PLEASE NOTE "THE ANDREW MARR SHOW" MUST BE CREDITED IF ANY
               PART OF THIS TRANSCRIPT IS USED
               http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/andrew_marr_show/9632770.stm
               JEREMY VINE:

               Now by any standards Ehud Barak has had an astonishing career
               serving his country. Israel's Prime Minister during the Camp
               David negotiations with Yasser Arafat now serves as both
               Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister in the current
               government. Before entering politics, he was one of the
               country's most decorated soldiers carrying out the kind of
               military ops that are now the stuff of legend among many
               Israelis. So a man of peace or a man of war? When I met him in
               London recently, I began by asking why his government has
               authorised the building of more settlements despite
               international criticism.

               EHUD BARAK:

               We are building in Jerusalem. It's our capital. We are
               building in the Jewish neighbourhoods of Jerusalem. It's a
               city of 700,000 people. You have to build and we will not
               accept anyone has the right to intervene in this. And we ...

               JEREMY VINE:

               (over) Well that is seen as speeding up, isn't it? That's seen
               as acceleration.

               EHUD BARAK:

               (over) No, it's not. No speeding up ... It's about numbers and
               pace, numbers per unit time. When Olmert was Prime Minister
               five years ago, we were building our defence minister twice
               the rate we are building now. When I was Prime Minister ten
               years ago, we were building four times the rate we are
               building right now. So it's not about the pace.

               JEREMY VINE:

               But why not ... Again it's about the symbolism. Why not just
               stop for a while because the other side see this as getting in
               the way, don't they?

               EHUD BARAK:

               No, no, the other side plays with it as a kind of manipulation
               to put certain preconditions into the dialogue. The reason
               that Olmert's government and my government could do it is
               because somehow we managed to convince the rest of the world
               that we are genuine in our talks and now we are facing more
               sophisticated Palestinian group which feels the zeitgeist
               behind them. They feel that they have good will from many
               international bodies, so they try to play with this issue of
               settlement. It really shouldn't matter because ...

               JEREMY VINE:

               Well you said something very, very interesting there - the
               phrases you've used - where you say you're dealing with a
               sophisticated Palestinian leadership now and they're very
               zeitgeisty and I couldn't have put it better myself in these
               questions. They're getting world opinion behind them, aren't
               they?

               EHUD BARAK:

               Yuh, yuh. We have to work properly to allow our people, our
               kind of spokesmen to talk more often to others, but it won't
               solve the issue. It cannot ...

               JEREMY VINE:

               (over) Are you frustrated at that?

               EHUD BARAK:

               I am a little bit frustrated by the fact that we cannot
               convince even some of our friends.

               JEREMY VINE:

               Okay, just to be clear. You accept that it strengthens Hamas
               if you go on building these settlements or not?

               EHUD BARAK:

               I don't think it relates to Hamas. Hamas basically is
               challenging Abu Mazen and the Palestinian authority. They are
               turning to terror. We cannot negotiate with them. Hamas are
               shooting at us rockets. You know just last week we got dozens
               of rockets in our southern part of the country. One man,
               father of four, was killed. That's something that cannot go
               together with peacemaking.

               JEREMY VINE:

               Let me change the subject.

               EHUD BARAK:

               (over) So it will be a challenge for Abu Mazen to take control
               over his own political system.

               JEREMY VINE:
               Alright, alright, I want to just move on because we haven't
               got much time. I want to talk to you about Iran as well. And I
               gather if we had the Israeli newspapers here and we opened
               them up, we would see that everyone in Israel is now thinking
               that you're getting ready to attack Iran. Is that right? Is
               that what people are saying?

               EHUD BARAK:

               Believe me, don't ... I do not try to underestimate the nature
               of the Iranian threat. That's a major threat for the stability
               of the whole region, probably of the whole world. A nuclear
               Iran - and they are determined to reach nuclear military
               capability - can open a major arms race, nuclear arms race in
               the whole Middle East. It can change the effectiveness of
               their supporting and their co-sponsoring of terror all around
               the region. They can ...

               JEREMY VINE:

               (over) Which is why the Israeli papers are saying aha, you're
               about to strike on them.

               EHUD BARAK:

               No, but I am telling it for years now. And they will
               intimidate neighbours in a much more effective way, especially
               when America and others are moving out of the region. I hope
               that the IAEA Report next week will tell the whole world a
               little bit more explicitly what they are really doing in
               regard to their nuclear plan.

               JEREMY VINE:

               (over) This is the narrative that's coming together. It's the
               missile test. It's the long range bombing plan. It's the IAEA
               Report which you mentioned. So they may say that Iran is
               getting closer to a bomb.

               EHUD BARAK:

               We strongly believe that sanctions are effective or could be
               effective if they are little and paralysing enough, that
               diplomacy could work if enough unity could be synchronised
               between the major players, but that no option should be
               removed from the table.

               JEREMY VINE:

               You have an amazing military record, and for those who don't
               know it, 19... - correct me if I'm wrong here - 1972 led the
               mission to free hostages on a Sabena flight; 1973, I read
               somewhere you dressed as a woman to assassinate - you're
               nodding - members of the PLO.

               EHUD BARAK:

               (over) Not as a hobby, yuh.

               JEREMY VINE:

               Okay. A scene in the film Munich reflected that. You were
               involved in Operation Entebbe in 1976; helped dismantle the
               Palestinian terror cell known as Black September. I'm thinking
               you're not really into diplomacy here. You would like to
               attack Iran.

               EHUD BARAK:

               No, I was also Foreign Affairs Minister of Israel and Prime
               Minister. In the last 15 years I didn't shot a single shot at
               anyone and I played a lot round the diplomatic saloons and the
               TV interviews as well. You know it's too serious. Israel is
               there. A person cannot choose his parents and a nation cannot
               choose its neighbours. We are living in a tough neighbourhood.
               No mercy for the weak, no second opportunity for those who
               cannot defend themselves. We would love to have the Canadians
               as our neighbours, but unfortunately the Americans got them.
               It's a tough neighbourhood and we have to be strong.

               JEREMY VINE:

               (over) One more because if you suddenly attack Iran next week,
               I want to make sure we've asked every question here. Have you
               got British support for that - for flying over them and
               dropping a bomb on their nuclear reactors?

               EHUD BARAK:

               I'm not going even to respond to this. May I say we are not
               ... don't worry about your next week programme, but the
               Iranian challenge is serious. This is something that should be
               prevented from happening. We have to stay there. We are
               strong. Israel is the strongest country a thousand miles
               around Jerusalem. We plan to remain the strongest country
               around. But we are at the same time peaceful. We are ready to
               make peace at any moment with any one of our neighbours.

               JEREMY VINE:

               So pretty cautious. Ehud Barak there, Israel's Defence
               Minister. No options ruled out on Iran.

               INTERVIEW ENDS

 --
 Clint Richards
 Global Monitor
 clint.richards@stratfor.com
 cell: 81 080 4477 5316
 office: 512 744 4300 ex:40841

               Iran Calligrapher's Association of North America, according to
               Google. Possibly not the entity being referred to below,
               though [chris]

               No idea what ICANA is... - CR

    Nuclear talks possible only if IAEA submits "honest" report - Iran       
    official                                                                 
                                                                             
    Text of report by Iranian news channel Press TV website                  
                                                                             
    An Iranian lawmaker says Iran has nothing to hide regarding its nuclear  
    programme and Tehran will only participate in negotiations if the UN     
    atomic agency is "honest" in its reports.                                
                                                                             
    Deputy Chairman of Iran's Majlis (parliament) National Security and      
    Foreign Policy Committee Esma'il Kowsari said that if the International  
    Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) resorts to deception then Iran "will set     
    conditions for talks."                                                   
                                                                             
    He went on to say that so long as the IAEA submits to the will of        
    arrogant powers particularly Washington, the agency's reports will       
    always be compiled to portray Iran in a negative light.                  
                                                                             
    "While the US has between 7,000 to 10,000 nuclear warheads and no other  
    country has atrocities such as Nagasaki and Hiroshima on its record, the 
    agency makes no effort to act against it (the US) and does not even dare 
    write a report against it," ICANA quoted him as saying on Sunday.        
                                                                             
    The IAEA director-general Yukiya Amano is scheduled to submit his new    
    report on Iran's nuclear case to IAEA member states on 8 November 2011.  
                                                                             
    However, Amano's visit to Washington for talks with US officials ahead   
    of the publication of the report has cast grave suspicion over its       
    objectivity and sincerity.                                               
                                                                             
    Iran has always rejected US allegations that it is pursuing a military   
    nuclear program and asserted the right to develop and acquire nuclear    
    technology for peaceful purposes as a signatory to the Non-Proliferation 
    Treaty [NPT].                                                            
                                                                             
    Source: Press TV website, Tehran, in English 1925gmt 06 Nov 11           
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEPol sh                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

               On 11/6/11 9:43 PM, Chris Farnham wrote:

                 al-Ahkbar isn't in english - CR

                   Iran's Ahmadinejad defiant as U.S. raises heat-paper
                   http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/irans-ahmadinejad-defiant-as-us-raises-heat-paper/
                   06 Nov 2011 23:19

                   CAIRO, Nov 7 (Reuters) - The United States fears Iran's
                   growing military power because it is now able to compete
                   with Israel and the West, Iranian President Mahmoud
                   Ahmadinejad said in comments carried by an Egyptian
                   newspaper on Monday.

                   Responding to a toughening stance from the United States
                   and Israel against Tehran, Ahmadinejad accused Washington
                   of inventing conspiracies to discredit Iran and sowing
                   discord with its near neighbour Saudi Arabia.

                   "Yes, we have military capabilities that are different
                   from any other country in the region," Egyptian daily
                   al-Akhbar cited Ahmadinejad as saying. "Iran is increasing
                   in capability and advancement and therefore we are able to
                   compete with Israel and the West and especially the United
                   States."

                   "The U.S. fears Iran's capability," he told the paper.
                   "Iran will not permit (anyone from making) a move against
                   it."
                   Iran's Islamic rulers, who say Israel has no right to
                   exist, deny accusations that they are seeking nuclear
                   weapons and have warned they will respond to any attacks
                   by striking at Israel and U.S. interests in the Gulf.

                   A senior U.S. military official said on Friday Iran had
                   become the biggest threat to the United States and
                   Israel's president said the military option to stop the
                   Islamic republic from obtaining nuclear weapons was
                   nearer.

                   Ahmadinejad repeated that Iran does not own a nuclear
                   bomb, but said Israel's end was inevitable.
                   The U.N. nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, is expected this week
                   to issue its most detailed report yet on research in Iran
                   seen as geared to developing atomic bombs.

                   "It is Israel that has about 300 nuclear warheads. Iran is
                   only keen to have nuclear capability for peaceful means,"
                   he said, accusing Washington of lumping Iran with Syria,
                   the Islamist Hamas movement that rules Gaza and Hezbollah
                   in Lebanon.

                   The U.S. portrays those four as "the Axis of Evil to save
                   the Zionist entity (Israel). But the Zionists are bound to
                   go out of existence," he said.

                   Responding to a U.S. claim that Iran was involved in a
                   plot to kill the Saudi ambassador to Washington,
                   Ahmadinejad said: "Iran is farthest from thinking of
                   carrying out such crimes but the U.S. is always inventing
                   conspiracies against Iran".

                   "The U.S. fears any friendship between us and Saudi Arabia
                   and therefore incites disagreements," he said. "To stop
                   the U.S. in its tracks we must deepen the elements of
                   friendship... We are ready for this and the relation
                   between Saudi and Iran already exists and has not been cut
                   off." (Reporting by Marwa Awad; Writing by Tom Pfeiffer;
                   Editing by Matthew Jones)

 --
 Clint Richards
 Global Monitor
 clint.richards@stratfor.com
 cell: 81 080 4477 5316
 office: 512 744 4300 ex:40841

 --
 Clint Richards
 Global Monitor
 clint.richards@stratfor.com
 cell: 81 080 4477 5316
 office: 512 744 4300 ex:40841

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +216 22 73 23 19
 www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-08 17:05:21</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2556418_-os-more-more-g3-iran-un-mil-iran-iaea-report-leaked-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:os@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2557319</id>
    <title>[Eurasia] source coding
</title>
    <description>   Hey Team,  
   As we're coding our sources, I wanted to make sure we weren't overlapping
   coding...
   Previously, I was 101-299 numbers. And others were 300 or 500s... meaning
   starting with the odd #s.
   If I go over 299 (my Russia sources in a few years just may as I'm at 188
   already). Then I may count backwards from 101.
   Anyway, I have some overarching sources that are part of more than one
   country... so I have sources as:
   CA-FSU - for Central Asia
   EU - for EU states/European states
   Anyway, lemme know if you have any issues with all of this. We need to be
   on the same page.
   Go Team!
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-09-01 03:19:21</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 02:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2557319_-eurasia-source-coding-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2558411</id>
    <title>Fwd: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
</title>
    <description>   Ryan Sims
   Global Intelligence
   STRATFOR
   T: 512-744-4087
   F: 512-744-0570
   ryan.sims@stratfor.com
   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
     Date: June 16, 2011 1:04:08 PM CDT
     To: STRATFOR &lt;service@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: RE: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
     Kudos*a great explanation for those who don't understand or appreciate
     the efforts that go into a real intel op*as opposed to the Hollywood BS
     everyone seems to expect.
      
     I remind people all the time that we got the courier's name back in '03
     -- and thank goodness didn't take the typical "cuff 'em and drag him in"
     approach many had advocated. We stayed patient and threw real analytical
     support into this one. Took some time -- but the patient oriental
     approach usually pays bigger dividends.  M
      
     From: STRATFOR [mailto:mail@response.stratfor.com] 
     Sent: Thursday, June 16, 2011 11:45 AM
     To: Michael Maness
     Subject: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
      

View on Mobile Phone | Read the online version.                                  

      

     STRATFOR Weekly Intelligence Update                                      
     Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier: Special Edition of Above the        
     Tearline                                                                 
     The weekly Above the Tearline video series is part of our members-only   
     content. We hope you enjoy this exclusive chance to access it free.      
                                                                              
     [IMG]                                                                    
     Watch this exclusive edition of Above the Tearline                       
                                                                              
             Above the Tearline: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier          
                                                                              
                                                                              
                                                                              
     Vice President of Intelligence Fred Burton examines the sophisticated    
     surveillance operation that led to the raid on Osama bin Laden*s safe    
     house in Pakistan. Click here to view.                                   
     Save on annual memberships                                               
     Connect with usTwitterFacebookYoutubeSTRATFOR Mobile                     
     New to STRATFOR? Get these free intel reports emailed to you. If you did 
     not receive this report directly from us and would like more             
     geopolitical &amp; security related updates, join our free email list.       
                                                                              
     Sponsorship: Sponsors provide financial support in exchange for the      
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</description>
    <date>2011-06-16 20:08:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2558411_fwd-surveillance-of-bin-laden-s-courier-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>service@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>responses@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2580321</id>
    <title>ROMANIA/EUROPE-Romania's Basescu Announces Plan To Open Two Gold Mining Sites in Near Future
</title>
    <description>   Romania's Basescu Announces Plan To Open Two Gold Mining Sites in Near
   Future
   President Basescu: Romania Will Open Two More Gold Mines To Be Managed by
   Romanian Companies" -- Agerpres headline - Agerpres
   Tuesday August 23, 2011 10:02:49 GMT
   'Romania will open two more gold mines in the period immediately ahead,
   but this time it will use Romanian companies,' Basescu told TVR public
   television channel in an interview at the presidential residence at the
   Black Sea resort of Neptun.

   Asked where the two miens will be located, he said 'somewhere on the
   national soil.'

   He mentioned that it is about two ores, one that should yield 50 tonnes of
   gold and the other 54 tonnes, both of which would be mined by Romanian
   companies.

   (Description of Source: Bucharest Agerpres in English -- government press
   agency)

   Material i n the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.
</description>
    <date>2011-08-24 12:50:13</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2580321_romania-europe-romania-s-basescu-announces-plan-to-open-two.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>dialogbot@smtp.stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>dialog-list@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2592592</id>
    <title>INDIA/SOUTH ASIA-Security tightened in India's Andaman and Lakshadweep islands - PTI
</title>
    <description>   Security tightened in India's Andaman and Lakshadweep islands - PTI - PTI
   News Agency
   Saturday September 3, 2011 07:07:09 GMT
   New Delhi, 2 Sept: Against the backdrop of reports of increased Chinese
   presence in the Indian Ocean, Indian government has beefed up security in
   the strategically located Andaman and Nicobar and Lakshadweep islands.

   "The government is aware of strategic importance of Andaman and Nicobar
   Islands and Lakshadweep and has been taking steps to enhance security in
   the two Union Territories," Home Minister P Chidambaram said here on
   Friday.

   Chidambaram said a unified command has already been set up in Andaman and
   Nicobar Islands to achieve strategic objectives.

   "Additional police forces have been sanctioned for both Andaman and
   Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep," he said at the meeting of the
   Consultative Committee of the Home Ministry.

   New Delhi has taken note of China constructing ports in Myanmar, Sri Lanka
   and Pakistan, India's three immediate neighbours.

   The Home Minister said connectivity is a major issue in Lakshadweep and
   Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the government is addressing it.

   Dispelling the impression that there is no representative democracy in the
   UTs which have no assemblies, Chidambaram pointed out that panchayat
   bodies are in place in all such UTs.

   Referring to Chandigarh, the Home Minister said the UT administration was
   preparing a Master Plan 2031 which was aimed at sustainable development of
   Chandigarh while retaining its essential character.

   Earlier, taking part in the discussion, members highlighted issues like
   increasing population of Chandigarh, over-industrialisation of Daman and
   Diu, potential of Andaman and Nicobar Islands as an international tourist
   destination, more assistance to those a ffected by the Tsunami in Andaman
   and Nicobar Islands and need for better connectivity in some UTs, an
   official release said.

   Those who attended Friday's meeting included Ashok Sekhar Ganguly, H K Dua
   and Mohd. Ali Khan from Rajya Sabha and Thokchom Meinya from the Lok
   Sabha.

   Minister of State for Home Mullapally Ramachandran also attended the
   meeting.

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.
</description>
    <date>2011-09-04 12:38:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-13 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2592592_india-south-asia-security-tightened-in-india-s-andaman-and.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>dialogbot@smtp.stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>dialog-list@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2600489</id>
    <title>[alpha] Fwd: Fwd: Fwd: ATFE, DHS, EPIC, FBI (UNCLASSIFIED)
</title>
    <description> &gt;


 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-06-28 17:46:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 02:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2600489_-alpha-fwd-fwd-fwd-atfe-dhs-epic-fbi-unclassified-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>michael.wilson@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/10/10382_Attached Message Part</path><size>227</size><md5></md5><sha1>053e8d232397158f79fcc5944f3c07e3fa0f0c3f</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/10/10383_ATFE Firearms Trafficking Utah to Venezuela.pdf</path><size>399136</size><md5></md5><sha1>d18e5edeccf0008d1580ea4b4ca6e44199f516a0</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/10/10384_Attached Message Part-16</path><size>201</size><md5></md5><sha1>e70a5a8e85fa36393e07b00012d955a8520c5a5b</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/10/10385_DHS Mexican Fe.pdf</path><size>139592</size><md5></md5><sha1>90ebfcd644016dcd93d695f2d23143fbe8822161</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/10/10386_FMSO JRIC Lati.pdf</path><size>768148</size><md5></md5><sha1>e4fea84b8866aa36117c49f576b64b3371d2da18</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/10/10387_FBI Jihadist W.pdf</path><size>50150</size><md5></md5><sha1>5e795f71e6f936d47d42ce7a8504a8cbfad705ac</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/10/10388_FBI Mexican Co.pdf</path><size>40633</size><md5></md5><sha1>e280d0de6feabbf6552627f4ebcdbd3456007309</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/10/10389_FBI A Popular .pdf</path><size>82467</size><md5></md5><sha1>161d5e5b4e79d48239f9532facd2bf79f586b2f6</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/10/10390_FBI Hempstead .pdf</path><size>45496</size><md5></md5><sha1>21eec6cdf3eeb27d1e04d9e1e4a4c52c0c2fa365</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/10/10391_FBI Illicit Dr.pdf</path><size>42888</size><md5></md5><sha1>fcf6028d4098662898df97e16ed4e3f3363a1c9b</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/10/10392_EPIC Bulletin EB11-44.pdf</path><size>328196</size><md5></md5><sha1>28f37dc9c7a7d79873f54e5ac80e4a0223f4d6f8</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/10/10393_FBI Identifica.pdf</path><size>139360</size><md5></md5><sha1>22a86899782cdd27820224140f0ac2c9285ba6a6</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/10/10394_FBI Burning of.pdf</path><size>222159</size><md5></md5><sha1>7e7f4f84e71c64c9360914f9642c453962e5e9d0</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/10/10395_FBI Sovereign Citizens and the Internet.pdf</path><size>123709</size><md5></md5><sha1>ada9b2eeb2dc1bcea08342fb709967a3d630afc5</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/10/10396_FBI Identifica-1.pdf</path><size>100805</size><md5></md5><sha1>481502e5ea847781dd102a55dd60da0fa454656c</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/10/10397_FBI Hells Ange.pdf</path><size>40572</size><md5></md5><sha1>94dabaed085a0849412cf20c2b36e6059b52a287</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/10/10398_FBI Gambino an.pdf</path><size>78711</size><md5></md5><sha1>540f3d8be3338a021c0682e954e5ca6c50260016</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/10/10399_FBI Solicitati.pdf</path><size>42806</size><md5></md5><sha1>44a6c743f711aab4d956e6e310edd11dee90d36b</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/10/10400_FBI Cleveland .pdf</path><size>175827</size><md5></md5><sha1>fe4c0969f76a4be9c780aea5f8adb1a2ebed070c</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2604652</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Libyans also pay foreign mercenaries.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:12:04 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   Was the shooter a Libyan?

   On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:13:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2604652_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2604814</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Once we do know, then we will know who was behind it.

   Until then, this is all conjecture and opinion.  And you know what
   opinions are like.

   On 7/22/11 9:13 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     We don't know

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:12:04 -0500 (CDT)
     To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
     Was the shooter a Libyan?

     On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:15:11</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2604814_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2604839</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Qaddaffi out-sources jobs, going back to Carlos the Jackal.

   Ck the OS about 3-4 weeks ago, about Qaddaffi hiring mercs.

   The suspect could be ex-French Foreign Legion.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:30:48 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   Maybe, or he could be the Norwegian McVeigh.

   On 7/22/11 9:26 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     Mercenary
     Contract hit

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Hoor Jangda &lt;hoor.jangda@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:25:36 -0500 (CDT)
     To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
     the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
     height.

     On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

       Was the shooter a Libyan?

       On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:34:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2604839_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2606228</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] sourcing insight
</title>
    <description>   I think you should make responsiveness a separate category. Like we do
   with our red, orange, yellow classifications during source list reviews.
   That is responsiveness/accessibility, and it is distinct from
   reliability. 
   From: Jennifer Richmond &lt;richmond@stratfor.com&gt;
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2011 15:05:28 -0500
   To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] sourcing insight
   As Stick said earlier, you can have a reliable source that is highly
   responsive that sometimes sends crap.  Item credibility is the place where
   you assess the information, and this changes from insight to insight. 
   Reliability is more about source responsiveness.  That said, and as Stick
   notes, reliability also speaks to the overall source's access to
   information as well as dependability.  In part some of this should also be
   addressed in the source description.

   We'll be fleshing these out a bit more in the next few weeks, and all
   suggestions are welcomed.

   On 7/29/11 2:51 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     My understanding of source reliability has always been the contact's
     personal reliability as a person who can provide accurate information.
     On 7/29/11 2:54 PM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

       Sending to the list since these are good questions.  My responses in
       red.

       On 7/29/11 1:48 PM, Allison Fedirka wrote:

         I have 2 questions on this item.
         SOURCE RELIABILITY: A-F, A being the best and F being the worst.
          this
         grades the turnaround time of this source in responding to requests

         1) If this is based solely on turn around time, do we have company
         standards for the letters.  Like A = a couple of hours, D = a couple
         of weeks, etc?  We do need to better identify what each letter
         means.  In the meantime, in my book A=within 24 hours, B=48 hours,
         C=a couple of days, D=over a week, F=lucky if we get a response
         2) Also I previously thought this item reflected both reliability in
         turn around time and also reliability to give good information.  So
         like if someone was obviously anti-chavez or exaggerates a lot, I
         would bump them down a bit since the insight should be taken with a
         grain of salt.  How do you want us to inform others of potential
         bias or questionable material?  In the description section? It is
         mainly addresses their reliability to respond.  ITEM CREDIBILITY is
         the place where we code the information.  In most cases this changes
         from insight to insight whereas SOURCE RELIABILITY is a little more
         static.  Some sources know nothing about politics but give excellent
         info on econ.  So, credibilty changes frequently even with the same
         source and one of the reasons why we need to keep up with the entire
         ID tags when sending in insight.  As to the last question, I usually
         make a note of their bias for a particular insight in the
         credibility section.  In the description section you can write out
         their personal biases - e.g. the dude only hangs with the wealthy so
         this insight is likely to be skewed towards elite perceptions, or
         something like that. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: "Jennifer Richmond" &lt;richmond@stratfor.com&gt;
         To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
         Sent: Friday, July 29, 2011 1:41:39 PM
         Subject: [alpha] sourcing insight

         We've gotten lazy on insight source IDs again.  Not only do you need
         to
         put the source code in the subject line, but all of these categories
         need to be filled out for every single insight sent to the list.

         SOURCE: code
         ATTRIBUTION: this is what we should say if we use this info in a
         publication, e.g. STRATFOR source/source in the medical
         industry/source
         on the ground, etc
         SOURCE DESCRIPTION: this is where we put the more concrete details
         of
         the source for our internal consumption so we can better understand
         the
         source's background and ability to make the assessments in the
         insight
         PUBLICATION: Yes or no.  If you put yes it doesn't mean that we will
         publish it, but only that we can publish it.
         SOURCE RELIABILITY: A-F, A being the best and F being the worst.
          this
         grades the turnaround time of this source in responding to requests
         ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1-10, 1 being the best and 10 being the worst (we
         may
         change the range here in the future).  this changes a lot based on
         the
         info provided.  1 is "you can take this to the bank" and 10 would be
         an
         example of maybe - "this is a totally ridiculous rumor but something
         that is spreading on the ground"
         SPECIAL HANDLING: often this is "none" but it may be something like,
         "if
         you use this we need to be sure not to mention the part about XXX in
         the
         publication" or any other special notes
         SOURCE HANDLER: the person who can take follow-up questions and
         communicate with the source

         If you have any questions, concerns or suggestions, let me know.
          I'll
         be back in the office next Tues so if you want to discuss this
         process
         in person we can do so soon.  In the meantime, remember that every
         piece
         of insight needs this ENTIRE ID unless it is just something that you
         picked up off the ground from a source that you will likely not hear
         from again.  Even then, you should fill out the entire ID and in the
         SOURCE field simply say - n/a with a description on why we are not
         coding them.

         Jen
         PS: Also remember that is something is highly sensitive to send
         directly
         - not thru a WO - to the "secure" list.  Secure list insights still
         need
         the above ID tags.

         --
         Jennifer Richmond
         STRATFOR
         China Director
         Director of International Projects
         (512) 422-9335
         richmond@stratfor.com
         www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.comwww.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.comwww.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-29 22:08:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 02:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2606228_re-alpha-sourcing-insight-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2621325</id>
    <title>G3/S3* - IRAN/US/ISRAEL/SYRIA - Iran officials accuses USA,	Israel
	of interfering in Syria
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-09-13 09:40:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2621325_g3-s3-iran-us-israel-syria-iran-officials-accuses-usa-israel.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2621778</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] sourcing insight
</title>
    <description>   You can stay on Alpha. 
   From: Marko Primorac &lt;marko.primorac@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Mon, 1 Aug 2011 10:30:35 -0500 (CDT)
   To: scott stewart &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] sourcing insight
   Stick:

   I'm emailing IT right now to get me off Alpha / Secure just so you know.

   I'm not on Secure or Alpha List on Thunderbird / didn't even think about
   that once I got here reading Zimbra it didn't register until the thread
   below. I dropped the ball / take full responsibility.

   Emailing IT to get me off the list immediately.
   Sincerely,

   Marko Primorac
   Tactical Analyst
   marko.primorac@stratfor.com
   Cell: 011 385 99 885 1373

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "scott stewart" &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Friday, July 29, 2011 4:58:35 PM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] sourcing insight

   We need to change that.  A simple email to IT before a trip gets you off
   the list. 
   From: Kamran Bokhari &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2011 16:51:42 -0400
   To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] sourcing insight
   Ok, but even when I have been outside the continent I have still been on
   secure. 
   On 7/29/11 4:03 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     Yeah. We don't consider Canada to really be overseas.  
     From: Kamran Bokhari &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
     Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2011 15:49:34 -0400
     To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [alpha] sourcing insight
     I have always been secure even though I am always overseas.

     On 7/29/11 2:59 PM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

       Ok, good question.

       The secure list is not supposed to have anyone overseas on it.  (And
       as a side note, if you are traveling overseas you need to get yourself
       off this list while out of the country.)  We have many WOs overseas
       and so when we send something to secure it is just one more way we are
       trying to protect sourcing by not having it sent over international
       wires (yes, of course, there are many ways that foreigners can access
       any insight sent from anywhere at anytime, but it is somewhat more
       secure when we email only within CONUS).  So either a source or
       insight that is highly sensitive needs to go to the secure list only,
       and that means that we send it in ourselves because the overseas WOs
       won't be able to pick it up.

       Alpha goes to analysts/writers (and the few others selected on this
       list) and not ADPs or Interns, including to analysts/writers overseas.

       On 7/29/11 1:50 PM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

         your last line in the P.S.... said to send things directly to
         secure... I wanted to know if that meant only to secure or to alpha
         too.
         I think there is still some confusion over which list is which.
         On 7/29/11 1:47 PM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

           I don't understand your question.  This applies to both lists. 
           All sources need IDs (as mentioned in my PS - does that answer
           your question?).

           As to the question of sending from BBs, I definitely understand
           that issue.  When you return to your computer, please reply to the
           insight sent out with the full coding.  We need this info to
           really track insight and any changes over time.

           On 7/29/11 1:45 PM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

             secure or alpha?

             On 7/29/11 1:41 PM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

 We've gotten lazy on insight source IDs again.  Not only do you need to
 put the source code in the subject line, but all of these categories
 need to be filled out for every single insight sent to the list.

 SOURCE: code
 ATTRIBUTION: this is what we should say if we use this info in a
 publication, e.g. STRATFOR source/source in the medical industry/source
 on the ground, etc
 SOURCE DESCRIPTION: this is where we put the more concrete details of
 the source for our internal consumption so we can better understand the
 source's background and ability to make the assessments in the insight
 PUBLICATION: Yes or no.  If you put yes it doesn't mean that we will
 publish it, but only that we can publish it.
 SOURCE RELIABILITY: A-F, A being the best and F being the worst.  this
 grades the turnaround time of this source in responding to requests
 ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1-10, 1 being the best and 10 being the worst (we may
 change the range here in the future).  this changes a lot based on the
 info provided.  1 is "you can take this to the bank" and 10 would be an
 example of maybe - "this is a totally ridiculous rumor but something
 that is spreading on the ground"
 SPECIAL HANDLING: often this is "none" but it may be something like, "if
 you use this we need to be sure not to mention the part about XXX in the
 publication" or any other special notes
 SOURCE HANDLER: the person who can take follow-up questions and
 communicate with the source

 If you have any questions, concerns or suggestions, let me know.  I'll
 be back in the office next Tues so if you want to discuss this process
 in person we can do so soon.  In the meantime, remember that every piece
 of insight needs this ENTIRE ID unless it is just something that you
 picked up off the ground from a source that you will likely not hear
 from again.  Even then, you should fill out the entire ID and in the
 SOURCE field simply say - n/a with a description on why we are not
 coding them.

 Jen
 PS: Also remember that is something is highly sensitive to send directly
 - not thru a WO - to the "secure" list.  Secure list insights still need
 the above ID tags.


             --
             Lauren Goodrich
             Senior Eurasia Analyst
             STRATFOR
             T: 512.744.4311
             F: 512.744.4334
             lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
             www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.comwww.stratfor.com

         --
         Lauren Goodrich
         Senior Eurasia Analyst
         STRATFOR
         T: 512.744.4311
         F: 512.744.4334
         lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
         www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.comwww.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-08-01 18:00:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2621778_re-alpha-sourcing-insight-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.primorac@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2622834</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] [OS] CHINA/CSM - Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in
 fraud probe
</title>
    <description>   I agree with Alibaba and had flagged that too.  I didn't see the mention
   of trapwire in the story on Cisco.  Maybe I missed it.  Yes, keep me
   posted on any questions and I'll see what my contact can dig up.

   On 7/4/11 11:18 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     This is also a pretty good CSM topic.  some college kids running a scam
     through Alibaba (chinese ebay), took in a good amount of money. 

     If we had some good 'redism' related incidents, maybe I could write on
     that, but we'd need some very concise points to make. 

     Let me know what you guys think of this and the surveillance camera
     topic.

     Jen, I assume that Trapwire is a competitor to Cisco, but I'm not sure. 
     I don't know if trapwire makes the actual cameras or just does the
     analysis.   I won't have real questions till morning. 

     On 7/2/11 11:00 AM, Kevin Stech wrote:

       Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in fraud probe

       02 July 2011 - 08H10 

       http://www.france24.com/en/20110702-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-fraud-probe

        

       AFP - Police have arrested 36 people in southeast China following an
       investigation into fraud on e-commerce site Alibaba.com and other
       websites that duped buyers out of more than $6 million.

        

       Alizila.com, Alibaba's corporate news website, reported earlier this
       week the suspects were detained in Fujian province's Putian city in
       April. John Spelich, the firm's spokesman, confirmed the report to AFP
       on Saturday.

        

       The people arrested allegedly operated a criminal gang that used fake
       IDs to open more than 100 "Gold Supplier" accounts on Alibaba.com.
       This designation is given to those certified as highly trusted
       suppliers by the firm.

        

       This allowed the suspects to pose as legitimate companies selling to
       overseas businesses that source goods through Alibaba.com. Police said
       the alleged scammers also used other international trading websites.

        

       Alibaba.com, based in the eastern city of Hangzhou, has grown into one
       of China's largest Internet companies by matching mainland
       manufacturers and wholesalers with buyers around the world.

        

       But its reputation took a hit in February when the firm announced the
       resignation of chief executive David Wei and head of operations Elvis
       Lee after fraud was uncovered on the site.

        

       Wei and Lee were not involved in the scams but resigned because they
       took responsibility for "systemic breakdowns" that allowed the fraud
       to happen, Alibaba said at the time.

        

       But according to the Alizila report, the fraud was "sometimes abetted
       by Alibaba.com employees." But Spelich said Saturday none of the 36
       arrested worked at the company.

        

       He added the number of fraud complaints received by the website in
       June was down 70 percent from February after Alibaba toughened
       procedures and other security measures.

        

       The report said Alibaba had refunded $1.9 million to those who lost
       their money to the alleged scammers.

       Click here to find out more!

        

       Kevin Stech

       Director of Research | STRATFOR

       kevin.stech@stratfor.com

       +1 (512) 744-4086

        

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 07:22:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2622834_re-ct-os-china-csm-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-in.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2629283</id>
    <title>[alpha] Fw: Oslo
</title>
    <description>   Trapwire

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:00:28 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Oslo

   My money's on a Libyan connection.

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 18:04:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2629283_-alpha-fw-oslo-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2635293</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] (more) TrapWire on Kabul Hotel Attack
</title>
    <description>   Two points here:

   1. If they were in fact dressed in Afghan police clothing it brings us
   back to the question we addressed in the afghan weekly a few weeks ago
   where there is concern about militant infiltration into the Afghan
   security forces. This definitely makes things difficult as the Afghan
   security forces are handed over the control which brings us to Sean's
   point about the fact the operation primarily ended with the NATO
   helicopters shooting down 3 men on the roof and even then there was one
   guy just going around in the hotel and it took about 2 hours to contain
   him.

   2. Also if the militants were dressed in Afghan police attire it explains
   how they managed to bypass those multiple layers of defense.

   On Wednesday, 6/29/11 9:27 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

     Nothing to confirm or refute this initial claim. But new reporting
     suggests attackers arrived dressed as Afghan police. This is standard MO
     for Taliban...and many terror groups as you know. Only thing that
     everyone agrees on right now is that this thing was meticulously
     planned, and clearly well surveilled ahead of time. This hotel has
     multiple layers of defense -- including armed guards -- and still the
     bad guys got in. We don't have a single hotel in this country with even
     10% of the security the Intercontinental had. When they decide to start
     targeting hotels here, it'll shooting fish in a barrel.

      

      

     Stormed in force out of a vehicle after one perp detonated a vest at the
     gate  (Mike, think this remains accurate?)

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-06-29 16:46:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2635293_re-alpha-more-trapwire-on-kabul-hotel-attack-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>hoor.jangda@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2641170</id>
    <title>[alpha] Fw: Oslo
</title>
    <description>   Trapwire

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:18:40 -0500 (CDT)
   To: burton@stratfor.com&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Oslo
   99 percent sure. Some reports already confirming.
    
   From: burton@stratfor.com [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, July 22, 2011 12:15 PM
   To: Michael Maness
   Subject: Re: Oslo
    
   Think it was a bomb?

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:00:28 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Oslo

   My money's on a Libyan connection.

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 18:31:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2641170_-alpha-fw-oslo-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2648736</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
   height.

   On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

     Was the shooter a Libyan?

     On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:25:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2648736_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>hoor.jangda@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2649190</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111
</title>
    <description>   this dude really gives the impression that Moscow calls the shots in Kiev

   so basically, Med gets pissed b/c Timo is blowing Putin and not him, so he
   whines to Putin and says drop the B and get behind Yanu like me. Putin
   says fine, Yanu gets excited and oversteps his boundaries, and now Putin
   is like fix this shit Med and Med is like okay, but we dont know what Med
   is actually gonna do to slap Yanu around

   so what's the couterargument to this? Does Russia really have this much
   influence over the situation?  this is something we need to address in
   ukraine reassessment

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marc Lanthemann" &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

   CODE: UA111
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Kiev
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch.
   But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps
   this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to
   begin with.

    

   You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in
   power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew
   Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to
   solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be
   Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most
   easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got
   her in trouble and arrested.

    

   But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no
   respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev
   made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a
   deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if
   Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being
   the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU,
   military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension
   it had been pushing for.

    

   So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009,
   the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing
   to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of
   demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally.

    

   Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev
   to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing
   against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever
   will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-09-14 20:55:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2649190_re-alpha-insight-ukraine-moscow-kiev-spat-ua111-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2654712</id>
    <title>[alpha] =?utf-8?q?INSIGHT_-_CN65_Re=3A_CHINA/AUSTRALIA/ENERGY/GV_?=
 =?utf-8?q?-_Shell=2C_PetroChina=E2=80=99s_Arrow_Energy_Offers_=24540_Mill?=
 =?utf-8?q?ion_to_Acquire_Bow_Energy?=
</title>
    <description>   **Asked source if we should care about this news.

   SOURCE: CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: A
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen
   The Consul-General said last week that gas was of great importance to
   them, as were all energy supplies, but gas particularly so.  There was the
   usual stuff concerning their environmental concerns, but he stressed that
   they were going to make long term commitments to the gas sector.  He did
   not differentiate between off-take commitments, or equity commitments.
   I also know that CNOOC has an investment team sitting in Brisbane, headed
   by a GM.  This is interesting, as they have not made any equity
   investments, which suggests they may be intending or hoping to do so.
    That would be an additional stake over the ones announced so far.
   There is a potential Chinese gas deal that has been in negotiation for
   sixteen months.  I don't know if this involves CNOOC or not, so it could
   be yet another deal, as i don't believe it is the bid for Bow.
   The gas sector is fairly tightly held in Australia.  I don't know what
   minor explorers are left, but they are probably in NSW, rather than
   Queensland.  Queensland has already seen a fair bit of consolidation over
   the last six or seven years.
   Of course any bid will have to go through the FIRB.  There is also a lot
   of community concern in the farming sector about impacts on the aquifers,
   which concern is well based.  That may also be a factor in any FIRB
   approval.

         Should we care about this?  What are the Chinese up to lately in Oz?

         -------- Original Message --------

         Subject: CHINA/AUSTRALIA/ENERGY/GV - Shell, PetroChina's Arrow       
                  Energy Offers $540 Million to Acquire Bow Energy            
            Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2011 09:38:05 -0500                             
            From: Michael Sher &lt;michael.sher@stratfor.com&gt;                    
              To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;, Jennifer Richmond            
                  &lt;richmond@stratfor.com&gt;                                     

         Shell, PetroChina's Arrow Energy Offers $540 Million to Acquire Bow
         Energy
         Aug 22, 2011 2:09 AM CT
         http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-21/bow-energy-receives-proposal-from-arrow-energy-at-a-1-48-share.html

         Arrow plans a fourth LNG venture on Queensland's Curtis Island,
         following approvals for more than $50 billion in rival developments
         led by BG Group Plc, Santos Ltd. and ConocoPhillips to meet rising
         demand in Asia. Photographer: Eric Taylor/Bloomberg

         Arrow Energy Ltd., owned by Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) and
         PetroChina Co., offered about A$520 million ($540 million) for Bow
         Energy Ltd. (BOW), seeking more resources to underpin a proposed
         liquefied natural gas project in Australia.

         Arrow, a coal-seam gas explorer and producer in Queensland state,
         offered A$1.48 a share in cash, Brisbane-based Bow said today in a
         statement. That's 67 percent more than Bow's price of 88.5 cents in
         Sydney trading on Aug. 19. The shares surged 60 percent today to
         A$1.415 at the 4:10 p.m. close.

         The bid "does significantly undervalue the stock compared with where
         we think it should be," said Andrew Williams, a Melbourne-based oil
         and gas analyst at RBC Capital Markets, who has a price target of
         A$1.75 on Bow's shares. "It still leaves scope for upside and more
         play to come."

         Arrow plans a fourth LNG venture on Queensland's Curtis Island,
         following approvals for more than $50 billion in rival developments
         led by BG Group Plc (BG/), Santos Ltd. (STO) and ConocoPhillips
         (COP) to meet rising demand in Asia. Bow has been the subject of
         takeover speculation since Santos, Australia's third-largest oil and
         gas producer, agreed last month to pay about A$730 million to buy
         the shares in Eastern Star Gas Ltd. (ESG) it didn't already own.

         Bow has been in talks to supply gas to the companies developing the
         LNG projects in Queensland as it targets a more than fivefold gain
         in reserves by next year, Chief Executive Officer John De Stefani
         said in an Aug. 3 interview. Bow increased its proven and probable
         reserves to 238 petajoules last month and aims to reach 1,250
         petajoules in 2012, enough gas to support an LNG plant producing 1
         million metric tons of the fuel annually over 20 years, De Stefani
         said.
         `LNG Opportunity'

         The offer values Bow at about 6 Australian cents a gigajoule of gas
         reserves that may be recoverable, 33 percent less than the price
         Santos agreed to pay for Eastern Star and the amount Shell and
         PetroChina paid last year for Arrow, John Young, a Melbourne-based
         analyst at Wilson HTM Investment Group, estimated today. Those deals
         valued the targets at 9 cents a gigajoule, he said.

         "Bow is still working to demonstrate conversion to 2P reserves,"
         from proven, probable and possible reserves, "whereas Arrow and
         Eastern Star were probably more advanced," Young said, adding he
         thinks a rival bid is unlikely.

         Dart Energy Ltd. (DTE), a Sydney-listed company developing coal bed
         methane resources in countries including Australia, rose 6.7 percent
         to 56 cents in Sydney, the most in four months. Exoma Energy Ltd.
         (EXE), a natural gas explorer in Queensland, climbed 21 percent to
         14.5 cents in Sydney, the most since July 1.

         A transaction with Bow would help Arrow increase the size of its
         first two LNG processing units, Chief Executive Officer Andrew
         Faulkner said today in a statement. Arrow initially plans to produce
         4 million tons of LNG a year from each of the first two units, the
         company said this month.
         `Complementary' Businesses

         Shell is "quite happy" to wait to develop the Arrow LNG project as
         costs to develop ventures rise, Peter Voser, chief executive officer
         of The Hague-based company, told analysts in July. Arrow expects a
         final investment decision to proceed with its development in late
         2013, Faulkner said in June.

         "Shell's public statements indicate that they didn't mind being
         last, and they were willing to wait," RBC's Williams said. "Now it
         looks as though they may want to accelerate it. It's a clear signal
         there is an LNG opportunity out there."

         Bow recommends that shareholders take no action at this stage, the
         company said in the statement.

         "It makes sense for both companies to explore business opportunities
         given the proximity of both companies' coal-seam gas assets and the
         complementary nature of our businesses," Arrow's Faulkner said.
         "Arrow has the technical capability, capital resources and
         guaranteed market that may assist Bow Energy realize the potential
         of its assets."

         Conoco and Sydney-based partner Origin Energy Ltd. (ORG) last month
         approved the first phase of a $20 billion project in Queensland.
         Santos said in January its venture would cost $16 billion, while BG
         in October said it would invest $15 billion.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4105
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-08-24 04:11:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2654712_-alpha-utf-8-q-insight_-_cn65_re-3a_china-australia-energy.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>clint.richards@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2659226</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   We don't know

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:12:04 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   Was the shooter a Libyan?

   On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:13:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2659226_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2660703</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Was the shooter a Libyan?

   On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:11:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2660703_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2660715</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Mercenary
   Contract hit

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Hoor Jangda &lt;hoor.jangda@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:25:36 -0500 (CDT)
   To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
   height.

   On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

     Was the shooter a Libyan?

     On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:26:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2660715_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2681817</id>
    <title>GREECE/EUROPE-Challenges Predicted in Turkish-US Ties After US Backs Cyprus Gas Drilling
</title>
    <description>   Challenges Predicted in Turkish-US Ties After US Backs Cyprus Gas Drilling
   Column by Ilhan Tanir: US backs up Greek Cyprus in gas-drilling row -
   Hurriyet Daily News Online
   Saturday August 13, 2011 09:17:18 GMT
   Already convoluted reunification talks on the island now find another
   layer of sharply differing views over the planned hydrocarbon drilling
   project. Until now, both the Turkish and Greek sides made clear their
   respective opposing arguments over the issue. The foreign minister of
   Turkish Cyprus, Huseyin Ozgurgun, in a statement released this week called
   the oil and gas plans "unilateral activities" of the Greek Cypriot
   administration "that are against international laws and will inevitably
   have a negative impact on the ongoing negotiation process by escalating
   tension. The so-called Cyprus Republic doesn't have a right to represent
   and decide for the Cypriot Turks and the island's sea privileges by
   itself," he said.

   Greece's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Grigoris Delavekouras, on the
   other hand criticized the Turkish stance in a statement provided by the
   Greek Embassy. The Greek side believes the government of Greek Cyprus is
   the only legal representative of the state and is exercising its sovereign
   rights and responsibilities within international and maritime law. Greek
   Cyprus' foreign minister, Erato Kozakou-Marcoullis, is getting ready to
   initiate an international campaign about Turkish warnings to the European
   Union and international organizations, as the Cyprus Mail reported.

   The U.S. choice not to take a clear stance in the drilling row, despite
   its deep involvement in the Cyprus reunification talks and the Texas-based
   Nobel Energy, which holds 100 percent of the unexplored Block 12, an
   economic zone southeast of the island, puts Americans in the middle of the
   in tense spat.

   The Turkish officials, as reported in the Hurriyet Daily News last week,
   were said to have conveyed their concerns both to U.S. officials and the
   energy company about the project, although when contacted neither Nobel's
   spokesperson nor State Department officials who have knowledge of the
   issue wanted to comment about what kind of messages or warnings they had
   received from Turkish officials. Instead, a State Department official who
   is involved with Turkey-related matters referred to Assistant Secretary
   Philip Gordon's press round-table in Cyprus at the beginning of the year.
   In that, Gordon said the U.S. administration doesn't see any link between
   the reunification talks and the exploration plans. On the contrary, Gordon
   views the U.S. firm's involvement as "a very positive thing... on the
   Cyprus issue we know what the significant issues and chapters are, and I
   don't think that changes that in a significant way."

   In a three-point statemen t I received from the State Department on
   Wednesday, the U.S. administration states that it is aware of Turkey's
   position on the issue, and reiterated its commitment "to support strongly
   the efforts of both Cypriot parties to reunify the island into a bi-zonal,
   bi-communal federation." However, as a final point, the U.S.
   administration underscored that it views the plans in terms of "securing
   energy supplies through better energy diversity" and that "is something
   that the United States strongly supports for all countries."

   Following the harsh statements coming from the Turkish administration, and
   at a time when the region's landscape is rapidly changing and Ankara is
   growing increasingly confident in asserting its own foreign policy terms,
   one that appears to be closely aligned with Washington in many instances
   including in Syria, the gas-drilling project appears to have potential to
   pose some challenge in the relations between Ankara and Washington, in
   addition to its already jittery relations with Nicosia.

   The U.S. perceives the Greek Cypriot drilling plans, which could
   reportedly "sustain the energy need in Europe for the next 100 years," in
   terms of an alternative energy source for its European allies to help
   gaining energy independence, despite fierce Turkish objections.

   (Description of Source: Istanbul Hurriyet Daily News Online in English --
   Website of Hurriyet Daily News, pro-secular daily, with English-language
   versions from other Dogan Media Group dailies; URL:
   http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.
</description>
    <date>2011-08-14 12:40:35</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2681817_greece-europe-challenges-predicted-in-turkish-us-ties-after.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>dialog-list@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2687619</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged "Anonymous" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise "anonymous"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-10 19:47:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2687619_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2695750</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
 CODE
</title>
    <description>   It might sound strange, but some of the most radical deep ecology people
   actually believe that there are too many people on the earth and that
   radical steps must be taken to reduce the population and save the earth.
    This strain of deep ecology is a clear reflection of the way the movement
   was heavily influenced by people like Martin Heidegger who were also
   committed to Nazism. Yes, Nazis were radical environmentalists.....
   From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 23:08:31 -0600
   To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Jesus I spent a couple of hours researching these guys - weird is an
   understatement. Apparently they met yesterday a couple of blocks away from
   my house to consolidate their leadership, go through basic indoctrination
   and plan more events. As far as I can tell, the Austin chapter is not
   nearly as radical as the central Lierre Keith DGR whose website is a
   treasure trove of incitment to passive resistance, blowing up energy
   infra, basic counter intel and legal guidance.

   Their ideology seems to be a mix of hardcore environmentalism, anarchism,
   radical feminism and the general notion that we need to go back living
   sustainably like the american indians by blowing up every pipeline and
   cell tower on the planet. Unlike the central DGR, Austin DGR doesn't seem
   to have defined targets and goals (their meeting yesterday was a
   brainstorming session on what radical environmentalism means in Austin).

   just a few nice quotes from their central website:

   The task of an activist is not to navigate systems of oppressive power
   with as much personal integrity as possible; it is to dismantle those
   systems.

   What would we do if Nazis had invaded, and they were vacuuming the oceans,
   scalping native forests, damming every river, changing the climate, and
   putting carcinogens into every mother's breast milk, and into the flesh of
   your children, your lover, your mother, into your own flesh? How much
   worse would the damage have to get? Would you resist? If there existed a
   resistance movement, would you join it?

   On 11/16/11 7:42 PM, Victoria Allen wrote:

     WHOA.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 18:38:01 -0600
     To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Cc: Anya Alfano&lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
     CODE
     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not "radical" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the "Phoenix Commune" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as "stupid, crazy motherfuckers", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, "Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-17 14:01:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2695750_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2699521</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Maybe, or he could be the Norwegian McVeigh.

   On 7/22/11 9:26 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     Mercenary
     Contract hit

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Hoor Jangda &lt;hoor.jangda@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:25:36 -0500 (CDT)
     To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
     the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
     height.

     On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

       Was the shooter a Libyan?

       On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:30:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2699521_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2711990</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - HZ/SYRIA/TURKEY - HZ requesting missile
 components from Turkey? - ME1*
</title>
    <description>   This sounds quite incredible to me. How come Syria can give access to its
   Turkish suppliers of missile technology? It's not a dealer in grand
   bazaar. Only Roketsan has the missile technology in Turkey and it is a
   state-owned military institution. I checked the defense products of the
   two companies (see below) and I'm not sure how Hez can produce a missile
   with these.
   http://www.hidromode.com/eng/hidromode_urun_katagorisi.asp
   http://www.unimetal.com.tr/eng/urunler_unimetal.html

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Michael Wilson" &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, September 8, 2011 1:01:15 PM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - HZ/SYRIA/TURKEY - HZ requesting missile
   components from Turkey? - ME1*

   On 9/8/11 12:50 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     SOURCE: sub-source via ME1
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Jamaat al Islamiya activist in Lebanon via ME1
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: C-D
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: no idea!
     SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
     SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

     ho expresses fundamental concerns about the ability of the Syrian regime
     to survive the current crisis, says Hizbullah is worried about the
     continued flow of missiles/rockets from Syria what does he mean worried
     about it? worried that it will stop? and claims the Syrians receive
     their know-how and certain missile components not only from Iran and
     North Korea, but also from Turkey. HZ official asked the Syrians to give
     them direct access to their Turkish suppliers of missile technology. The
     Syrians were affronted and refused to give HZ any specific information.
     He says a Syrian military official told his HZ counterpart not to worry
     about the ability of the Syrian regime to stay in power. He claims there
     are two specific Turkish companies that HZ is interested in directly
     communicating with:Hidromode and Unimetal that produce missile
     components using project line wax technology.

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4300 ex 4112

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-09-08 20:18:52</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2711990_re-alpha-insight-hz-syria-turkey-hz-requesting-missile.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>emre.dogru@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2731270</id>
    <title>Re: Albania
</title>
    <description>   Words like "adherence to rules of engagement", "schooled", "non-lethal
   options".... there is no place for those words in a place like Albania.

   :)

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Nate Hughes" &lt;nathan.hughes@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2011 11:50:07 AM
   Subject: Re: Albania

   Ensuring adherence to rules of engagement (assuming there has even been
   stern, clear guidance given) in riot control scenarios can itself be
   difficult. Combine that with police who may not be well schooled in it and
   do not have a whole lot of non-lethal options besides a club, and you've
   got a recipe for people getting shot.

   That said, agree that the significance is the political and the popular
   perception of what happened.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Alex Hayward &lt;alex.hayward@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2011 11:44:15 -0600 (CST)
   To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Albania
   According to the AP, "The Prosecutor General's office said arrest warrants
   had been issued for six officers of the National Guard, army troops under
   Interior Ministry command who guard government institutions and senior
   officials."

   On 1/22/11 9:42 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     Is there a chance The cops were not actually the ones who killed the
     three? I didnt see any reports or photos indicating the riot police even
     had guns. And the type of pistol used to fire the rounds was listed in
     an article yesterday. I know nothing about guns so am of no use here,
     but would it be helpful to know The kind of firearm used?

     Either way, doesnt matter. All that matters is the political angle and
     the fact that the opposition perceives the police to be culpable

     Btw artillery?!

     On 2011 Jan 22, at 08:51, Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

         From TrapWire contact (former CIA clandestine officer)

       Not sure if STRATFOR's following events there -- but I chatted with
       some
       contacts in Tirana and tomorrow (Sunday) protests are expected to be
       even larger than yesterday's -- with many in the crowd bent on
       retaliation for the police killing of three protestors. (As always,
       rumor mills are in overdrive in the Balkans with claims being made
       that
       the cops targeted these protestors for assassination. No proof yet
       that
       that's the case. Having dealt with Albanian cops for three years, I
       can
       assure you though they dona**t need much pushing to draw their
       weapons.
       They actually fired artillery rounds onto protestors during the chaos
       of
       '97). Tough times in Tirana right now.

       Mike

 --
 Alex Hayward
 STRATFOR Research Intern

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 20:11:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2731270_re-albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>nathan.hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2731367</id>
    <title>Re: Tirana update
</title>
    <description>        Rumors continue to spread within the population that agents of the
   State Intelligence Service (SHISH) had infiltrated the crowds and provoked
   yesterday's violence. (Comment: No proof of this, but would not be the
   first time SHISH was used in this capacity).
   Would SHISH be trying to instigate violence so as to justify a govt
   crackdown on socialists? Seems like that is an unnecessary risk... No one
   wants civil war when youre The one actually in power already.
    
   On 2011 Jan 22, at 13:36, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     From TrapWire --
     Just in from a contact (Former senior law enforcement officer with
     direct access to Opposition party members).
      
     Tirana : 22 Jan 2011 (Situation at 1930 local)
      
     a**         Situation today calm, as Govt declared day of mourning for
     the "martyrs" (Berisha's words).
     a**         The Opposition has been hold-up all day today in Mayor Edi
     Rama's office discussing next steps. There is some reluctance on their
     part as to whether tomorrow's protest should proceed as planned. They
     have apparently received word that many protesters intend to come armed
     to protect themselves against the police.  Rama has commented privately
     he may lead the protest to try and keep them peaceful.
     a**         Despite this, the Opposition continues to insist they will
     not stop actions against the current regime until Berisha resigns. In
     response, Berisha has declared that "anyone touching an official
     government building will meet the same fate as the protestors
     yesterday."
     a**         Rumblings have started in other major cities throughout
     Albania re. sympathetic protests. Most notably Shkoder, Durres and
     Gjirokaster.
     a**         There are reports of a handful of arrests of senior police
     officials following yesterday's incident. Investigation is now underway
     as to who gave the order to fire upon the crowds.
     a**         Rumors continue to spread within the population that agents
     of the State Intelligence Service (SHISH) had infiltrated the crowds and
     provoked yesterday's violence. (Comment: No proof of this, but would not
     be the first time SHISH was used in this capacity).
     a**         Note: Great deal of fear and apprehension amongst the
     populace, particularly in Tirana. Most still have vivid memories of '90
     and '97. Average Albanian is still well armed following the ransacking
     of weapons depots in '97 and an escalation in violence is not
     unthinkable.
      
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 22:24:15</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2731367_re-tirana-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bayless.parsley@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2741245</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] State/DSS on recent UK Birmingham round up
</title>
    <description>   US leaks

   Leaks compromised UK prosecutions about a year ago.

   We caught the Brits kiling IRA in the past and they lied to us.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Chris Farnham &lt;chris.farnham@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2011 19:16:21 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] State/DSS on recent UK Birmingham round up
   What changed between the Brits and the US?

   Wikileaks fallout?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: burton@stratfor.com
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, 21 September, 2011 9:20:46 AM
   Subject: [alpha] State/DSS on recent UK Birmingham round up

   Was the recent UK plot serious?
   --------------------------

   Brits no longer trust the US to share outright.  

   Looks so on the surface
   but to early on to do more than speculate.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   Australia Mobile: 0423372241
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-09-21 02:27:28</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 03:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2741245_re-alpha-state-dss-on-recent-uk-birmingham-round-up-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2746502</id>
    <title>Re: Albania
</title>
    <description>   Good insight. He put some thought into this.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;, "Marko Papic"
   &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, January 25, 2011 6:09:57 PM
   Subject: Albania

   From TrapWire in response to Marko's questions --
    

   Fred -- Just in. Haven't had time to give a good scrub/spell check etc. so
   might be a bit raw. (His English is excellent, but not perfect).  M

   ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
      

    

    

    

               1. Any thoughts on what repercussions unrest in Albania could
   have for the region as a whole?

    

               Instability in Albania generally means instability within the
   Albanian diaspora in the region.

    

   A.         Kosova: Just came out of general elections and is now facing an
   internal crises . The winning party does not have enough votes to elect a
   PM or create a new government. At the same time, the leadership of the
   winning party has been accused for war crimes and trafficking in human
   organs by a Swiss reporter. These issues have endangered the current
   political process towards Kosovo independence. Negotiations with Serbia
   are now on hold. An unstable political situation in Albania will be a big
   loss for Kosovo. Kosovo has no representation in international
   institutions and Albania is her biggest supporter and ally regarding
   Kosovo foreign policy.  A crisis in Albania will make the dialogue between
   Kosovo and Serbia, which is seeking a division of northern Kosovo.

    

   A.         Macedonia: Our neighboring country has a population of 30%
   Albanians, who have been in constant conflict with the Macedonian
   government regarding their rights as a minority. Macedonian-Albanians are
   divided in to two groups:  one that is more liberal and has assimilated
   into Macedonian society; and the other a much more radical group that is
   in conflict Macedonian policies. Add to this Macedonia's on-going conflict
   with Greece, and one could speculate that any major crisis in Albania will
   only compound the problems inside Macedonia -- particularly for those
   Albanians seeking greater rights inside Macedonia. There is a precedence
   for this problem during the 1997 conflict in Albania.

    

   A.         Greece: Our only neighboring country with EU membership is
   still going through a very bad political and economic crises itself. There
   are almost 1.5 million Albanians living in Greece -- many are illegal
   immigrants working illegally. Another crises in Albania could likely fuel
   another mass exodus to Greece (and Italy) -- particularly now that
   Albanians can finally travel without visas in Europe.   

    

   2.  After 1997 anarchy, weapons flowed across the borders to Kosovo and
   Macedonia. Any chance that another crisis has an effect on neighboring
   countries?

    

               In my opinion, it is unlikely the current situation will
   deteriorate to the point of 1997, which was fueled by economic collapse
   rather than only political differences. Albanians still have strong
   memories and feelings about this period, and would likely try to avoid a
   repeata*|particularly as the only groups who will profit from another
   crises would be the weapons, drugs, and fuel traffickers .

          

    

               3.  What is Berisha's role in neighboring Kosovo and
   Macedonia. Does he have influence with Kosovo leadership? Or Macedonian
   Albanian leadership?

    

               Generally speaking, Berisha does not have much of a role in
   the region. He continues to be viewed as a model of the old leadership.
   Clearly, Kosovo will always          need the support of the Albanian PM
   and his government; however, many Kosovars remember that Berisha gave only
   lukewarm support to the KLA, and was   believed to have profited
   personally by allowing fuel shipments into Serbia and Montenegro, despite
   the NATO embargo at the time. Berisha is still viewed as            
   having too close of ties to Serbia -- one of his closest contacts is Damir
   Fasllic, a character who is believed to have contacts at the highest
   levels of the Serbian           government. Berisha does not appear to
   have particularly strong ties to Macedonia and, with the loss of
   Jukanovic, probably has limited influence in Montenegro as          well

            

    

                4.  If there is a change in government to Edvin Rama, would
   it in any way change the situation in Albania or region?

    

               Edvin Rama is the leader of the Albanian opposition Socialist
   Party -- which represents about 50 % of the Albanian voters. Rama is known
   as a head-strong and       somewhat radical figure amongst the
   international community in Albania. He is not very good at dialoguing --
   often creating situations that neither side can win.           Despite
   these weaknesses, Rama represents the "modern" leader that many Albanians
   have been hoping for since 1990. His work in modernizing and cleaning-up
               the capital has made him very popular, and given him the image
   of someone who can get things done for the people (He has twice been
   re-elected as mayor).          Rama's popularity and modern thinking has
   been commented on favorably by many EU leaders and representatives.

    

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-01-26 01:17:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2746502_re-albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2762407</id>
    <title>Re: Albania
</title>
    <description>   According to the AP, "The Prosecutor General's office said arrest warrants
   had been issued for six officers of the National Guard, army troops under
   Interior Ministry command who guard government institutions and senior
   officials."

   On 1/22/11 9:42 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     Is there a chance The cops were not actually the ones who killed the
     three? I didnt see any reports or photos indicating the riot police even
     had guns. And the type of pistol used to fire the rounds was listed in
     an article yesterday. I know nothing about guns so am of no use here,
     but would it be helpful to know The kind of firearm used?

     Either way, doesnt matter. All that matters is the political angle and
     the fact that the opposition perceives the police to be culpable

     Btw artillery?!

     On 2011 Jan 22, at 08:51, Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

         From TrapWire contact (former CIA clandestine officer)

       Not sure if STRATFOR's following events there -- but I chatted with
       some
       contacts in Tirana and tomorrow (Sunday) protests are expected to be
       even larger than yesterday's -- with many in the crowd bent on
       retaliation for the police killing of three protestors. (As always,
       rumor mills are in overdrive in the Balkans with claims being made
       that
       the cops targeted these protestors for assassination. No proof yet
       that
       that's the case. Having dealt with Albanian cops for three years, I
       can
       assure you though they don't need much pushing to draw their weapons.
       They actually fired artillery rounds onto protestors during the chaos
       of
       '97). Tough times in Tirana right now.

       Mike

 --
 Alex Hayward
 STRATFOR Research Intern
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 18:44:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2762407_re-albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alex.hayward@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2783317</id>
    <title>Re: Albania
</title>
    <description>   He was, until the anarchy.

   I have heard that he in fact profited immensely from the beginnings of KLA
   operations in Kosovo and that he aided them greatly. But that is not at
   all exclusive to this insight. That he then made his money smuggling
   gasoline to Serbia during embargo also makes sense.

   On 1/25/11 7:27 PM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     many Kosovars remember that Berisha gave only lukewarm support to the
     KLA, and was   believed to have profited personally by allowing fuel
     shipments into Serbia and Montenegro, despite the NATO embargo at the
     time.
     so i guess that means the weapons flow in 1997 was not b/c of anything
     Berisha did (err, wait, was he in power back then? my Albanian history
     is getting all jumbled)

     On 1/25/11 6:09 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

       From TrapWire in response to Marko's questions --
        

       Fred -- Just in. Haven't had time to give a good scrub/spell check
       etc. so might be a bit raw. (His English is excellent, but not
       perfect).  M

       ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
          

        

        

        

                   1. Any thoughts on what repercussions unrest in Albania
       could have for the region as a whole?

        

                   Instability in Albania generally means instability within
       the Albanian diaspora in the region.

        

       .         Kosova: Just came out of general elections and is now facing
       an internal crises . The winning party does not have enough votes to
       elect a PM or create a new government. At the same time, the
       leadership of the winning party has been accused for war crimes and
       trafficking in human organs by a Swiss reporter. These issues have
       endangered the current political process towards Kosovo independence.
       Negotiations with Serbia are now on hold. An unstable political
       situation in Albania will be a big loss for Kosovo. Kosovo has no
       representation in international institutions and Albania is her
       biggest supporter and ally regarding Kosovo foreign policy.  A crisis
       in Albania will make the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia, which is
       seeking a division of northern Kosovo.

        

       .         Macedonia: Our neighboring country has a population of 30%
       Albanians, who have been in constant conflict with the Macedonian
       government regarding their rights as a minority. Macedonian-Albanians
       are divided in to two groups:  one that is more liberal and has
       assimilated into Macedonian society; and the other a much more radical
       group that is in conflict Macedonian policies. Add to this Macedonia's
       on-going conflict with Greece, and one could speculate that any major
       crisis in Albania will only compound the problems inside Macedonia --
       particularly for those Albanians seeking greater rights inside
       Macedonia. There is a precedence for this problem during the 1997
       conflict in Albania.

        

       .         Greece: Our only neighboring country with EU membership is
       still going through a very bad political and economic crises itself.
       There are almost 1.5 million Albanians living in Greece -- many are
       illegal immigrants working illegally. Another crises in Albania could
       likely fuel another mass exodus to Greece (and Italy) -- particularly
       now that Albanians can finally travel without visas in Europe.   

        

       2.  After 1997 anarchy, weapons flowed across the borders to Kosovo
       and Macedonia. Any chance that another crisis has an effect on
       neighboring countries?

        

                   In my opinion, it is unlikely the current situation will
       deteriorate to the point of 1997, which was fueled by economic
       collapse rather than only political differences. Albanians still have
       strong memories and feelings about this period, and would likely try
       to avoid a repeat...particularly as the only groups who will profit
       from another crises would be the weapons, drugs, and fuel traffickers
       .

              

        

                   3.  What is Berisha's role in neighboring Kosovo and
       Macedonia. Does he have influence with Kosovo leadership? Or
       Macedonian Albanian leadership?

        

                   Generally speaking, Berisha does not have much of a role
       in the region. He continues to be viewed as a model of the old
       leadership. Clearly, Kosovo will always          need the support of
       the Albanian PM and his government; however, many Kosovars remember
       that Berisha gave only lukewarm support to the KLA, and was   believed
       to have profited personally by allowing fuel shipments into Serbia and
       Montenegro, despite the NATO embargo at the time. Berisha is still
       viewed as             having too close of ties to Serbia -- one of his
       closest contacts is Damir Fasllic, a character who is believed to have
       contacts at the highest levels of the Serbian           government.
       Berisha does not appear to have particularly strong ties to Macedonia
       and, with the loss of Jukanovic, probably has limited influence in
       Montenegro as          well

                

        

                    4.  If there is a change in government to Edvin Rama,
       would it in any way change the situation in Albania or region?

        

                   Edvin Rama is the leader of the Albanian opposition
       Socialist Party -- which represents about 50 % of the Albanian voters.
       Rama is known as a head-strong and       somewhat radical figure
       amongst the international community in Albania. He is not very good at
       dialoguing -- often creating situations that neither side can win.
                 Despite these weaknesses, Rama represents the "modern"
       leader that many Albanians have been hoping for since 1990. His work
       in modernizing and cleaning-up             the capital has made him
       very popular, and given him the image of someone who can get things
       done for the people (He has twice been re-elected as mayor).         
       Rama's popularity and modern thinking has been commented on favorably
       by many EU leaders and representatives.

        

 --
 Marko Papic
 Analyst - Europe
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
</description>
    <date>2011-01-26 02:40:42</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2783317_re-albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bayless.parsley@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2784297</id>
    <title>Re: Albania
</title>
    <description>   Ensuring adherence to rules of engagement (assuming there has even been
   stern, clear guidance given) in riot control scenarios can itself be
   difficult. Combine that with police who may not be well schooled in it and
   do not have a whole lot of non-lethal options besides a club, and you've
   got a recipe for people getting shot.

   That said, agree that the significance is the political and the popular
   perception of what happened.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Alex Hayward &lt;alex.hayward@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Sat, 22 Jan 2011 11:44:15 -0600 (CST)
   To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Albania
   According to the AP, "The Prosecutor General's office said arrest warrants
   had been issued for six officers of the National Guard, army troops under
   Interior Ministry command who guard government institutions and senior
   officials."

   On 1/22/11 9:42 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     Is there a chance The cops were not actually the ones who killed the
     three? I didnt see any reports or photos indicating the riot police even
     had guns. And the type of pistol used to fire the rounds was listed in
     an article yesterday. I know nothing about guns so am of no use here,
     but would it be helpful to know The kind of firearm used?

     Either way, doesnt matter. All that matters is the political angle and
     the fact that the opposition perceives the police to be culpable

     Btw artillery?!

     On 2011 Jan 22, at 08:51, Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

         From TrapWire contact (former CIA clandestine officer)

       Not sure if STRATFOR's following events there -- but I chatted with
       some
       contacts in Tirana and tomorrow (Sunday) protests are expected to be
       even larger than yesterday's -- with many in the crowd bent on
       retaliation for the police killing of three protestors. (As always,
       rumor mills are in overdrive in the Balkans with claims being made
       that
       the cops targeted these protestors for assassination. No proof yet
       that
       that's the case. Having dealt with Albanian cops for three years, I
       can
       assure you though they don't need much pushing to draw their weapons.
       They actually fired artillery rounds onto protestors during the chaos
       of
       '97). Tough times in Tirana right now.

       Mike

 --
 Alex Hayward
 STRATFOR Research Intern
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 18:50:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2784297_re-albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>nathan.hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2785271</id>
    <title>Re: Albania Update
</title>
    <description>   Yes, please rep. If we are allowed.

   Don't source. Just say STRATFOR source in country.

   On 1/27/11 11:46 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     reliable enough info to rep?

     On 1/27/11 11:42 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

 &gt;From TrapWire (protect source):

 The protest of the opposition will be held tomorrow at 14.00. It will be
 only in Tirana,

 

 

 


 --
 Marko Papic
 Analyst - Europe
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
</description>
    <date>2011-01-27 18:49:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2785271_re-albania-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bayless.parsley@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2794652</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-11 13:59:34</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2794652_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2799900</id>
    <title>Geronimo source payment
</title>
    <description>Hello Fred,=20

Can you send us an "approved" email for the source that Marko left with you=
. Geronimo, $1200 monthly payment.=20

Since this is a recurring payment, you can also send us something like "I a=
pprove this expense for the remainder of the term, or until I say otherwise=
.=20

Thanks,=20

Fernando Jaimes=20
Staff Accountant=20
STRATFOR=20
221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
T: 512-279-9469 =A6 F: 512-744-4105
www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-12-06 21:28:10</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2799900_geronimo-source-payment-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>fernando.jaimes@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ar@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>fred.burton@core.stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2800258</id>
    <title>Org Chart 2011
</title>
    <description>12</description>
    <date>2011-12-12 17:51:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 02:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2800258_org-chart-2011-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>isaiah.massey@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/135/135464_Employee Org Chart as of CYE.xlsx</path><size>44163</size><md5></md5><sha1>91238e7a9a3a86c8073fa5a5f9dbcb128e3b6e63</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2800966</id>
    <title>Jen Richmond's Source
</title>
    <description>14</description>
    <date>2011-12-14 22:39:49</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2800966_jen-richmond-s-source-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>fernando.jaimes@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ar@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/122/122530_Bill or Credit - STRATFOR - QuickBooks Online Plus.pdf</path><size>78568</size><md5></md5><sha1>a91d9def94fb64f0c84fb01e14cb753ebefb4a17</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2803290</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
	CODE
</title>
    <description>   Agree
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: scott stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:59:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;; Korena Zucha&lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Anya Alfano&lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   I'll bet cash they are connected to the Austin guys busted for the DNC
   plot plus some of the Austin Earth First jabronis. 
   From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 11:51:44 -0600
   To: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Anya Alfano &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;, Alpha List
   &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Have we seen Deep Green Resistance carry-out acts of violence in the
   past? 

   On 11/16/2011 6:38 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not "radical" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the "Phoenix Commune" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as "stupid, crazy motherfuckers", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, "Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-18 21:17:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2803290_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2809922</id>
    <title>RE: TrapWire read on Mubarak 
</title>
    <description>   But he's been one of our staunchest allies in the GWOT and we'll start
   paying the price (with more attacks on US facilities) when he's gone. If I
   were him, I'd take my millions, head to Tahiti and giggle at Obama as he
   struggles with the flood of attacks that are sure to come.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Fred Burton
   Sent: Thursday, February 10, 2011 6:43 PM
   To: 'Analyst List'
   Subject: TrapWire read on Mubarak

   Fill your gas tanks this weekend.

    

   (Panetta botched this one....)

   Really tough call. Mubarak has an ego bigger than Cowboy's Stadium and has
   long ago disassociated from the man-on-the-street. (Remind me to tell you
   some horror stories of working with the service there and the way the
   treated the citizenry). He's also not one to rule by committee, so there's
   probably little chance anyone's getting through to him with logic. Would
   also not surprise me if he's actually a little scared. Where exactly would
   he go...and what would he do if he leaves office this way? Is a date with
   the International Court in his future on human rights charges...like so
   many modern dictators? He can't be feeling too confident with this
   administration covering his ass if the Egyptian populace starts screaming
   for an accounting of past sins.

    

   The real kicker in all this is that the only reason we don't have a 9/11
   type incident happening every week in this country is because of dictators
   like Mubarak. He's kept his boot on the throat of the Brotherhood and
   every other radical Islamic group for some time now. Yes, he has probably
   thrown many people in prison for nothing more than being in the wrong
   place at the wrong time. But he's been one of our staunchest allies in the
   GWOT and we'll start paying the price (with more attacks on US facilities)
   when he's gone. If I were him, I'd take my millions, head to Tahiti and
   giggle at Obama as he struggles with the flood of attacks that are sure to
   come.

    

    

   No virus found in this incoming message.
   Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
   Version: 9.0.872 / Virus Database: 271.1.1/3434 - Release Date: 02/10/11
   01:34:00
</description>
    <date>2011-02-11 01:49:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2809922_re-trapwire-read-on-mubarak-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2819118</id>
    <title>Re: Tirana update
</title>
    <description>   I think this is worth being written up as a piece ahead of tomorrow's
   protests.

   Is it possible to publish this?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: burton@stratfor.com
   To: "Analysts" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;, "Tactical" &lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, January 22, 2011 1:36:04 PM
   Subject: Tirana update

   From TrapWire --

   Just in from a contact (Former senior law enforcement officer with direct
   access to Opposition party members).

    

   Tirana : 22 Jan 2011 (Situation at 1930 local)

    

   a**         Situation today calm, as Govt declared day of mourning for the
   "martyrs" (Berisha's words).

   a**         The Opposition has been hold-up all day today in Mayor Edi
   Rama's office discussing next steps. There is some reluctance on their
   part as to whether tomorrow's protest should proceed as planned. They have
   apparently received word that many protesters intend to come armed to
   protect themselves against the police.  Rama has commented privately he
   may lead the protest to try and keep them peaceful.

   a**         Despite this, the Opposition continues to insist they will not
   stop actions against the current regime until Berisha resigns. In
   response, Berisha has declared that "anyone touching an official
   government building will meet the same fate as the protestors yesterday."

   a**         Rumblings have started in other major cities throughout
   Albania re. sympathetic protests. Most notably Shkoder, Durres and
   Gjirokaster.

   a**         There are reports of a handful of arrests of senior police
   officials following yesterday's incident. Investigation is now underway as
   to who gave the order to fire upon the crowds.

   a**         Rumors continue to spread within the population that agents of
   the State Intelligence Service (SHISH) had infiltrated the crowds and
   provoked yesterday's violence. (Comment: No proof of this, but would not
   be the first time SHISH was used in this capacity).

   a**         Note: Great deal of fear and apprehension amongst the
   populace, particularly in Tirana. Most still have vivid memories of '90
   and '97. Average Albanian is still well armed following the ransacking of
   weapons depots in '97 and an escalation in violence is not unthinkable.

    

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 20:40:14</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2819118_re-tirana-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2822375</id>
    <title>MORE*: G3* - IRAN/UN/MIL - Iran IAEA report leaked
</title>
    <description>   Alot of information in this leak, similar to the one released yesterday,
   although this one really pushes the "iran is making weapons as we speak"
   line [johnblasing]

   IAEA may show recent bomb-related atom work by Iran

   http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/08/us-iran-nuclear-iaea-idUSTRE7A738S20111108

   VIENNA | Tue Nov 8, 2011 7:56am EST
   (Reuters) - A U.N. nuclear watchdog report due this week is expected to
   show recent activity in Iran that could help in developing nuclear bombs,
   including intelligence about computer modeling of such weapons, Western
   diplomats said on Tuesday.

   "There are bits and pieces of information that go up through 2010," one
   Vienna-based diplomat said.
   If confirmed in this week's keenly awaited document by the International
   Atomic Energy Agency, it could stimulate new debate about a controversial
   U.S. intelligence assessment in 2007 that Iran had halted outright
   "weaponization" work in 2003.
   It would heighten Western suspicions that Iran is resolved to pursue at
   least some of the research and development (R&amp;D) applicable to atom bombs,
   even if Tehran has made no apparent decision to actually build them, as
   diplomats believe.

   "There is still evidence there where I think the agency will be in a
   position to say that they have serious concerns coming up to the present
   day," said another envoy in the Austrian capital, where the IAEA is based.

   But Western officials and experts suggested that research and experiments
   pointing to military nuclear aims may not have continued on the same scale
   as before 2003, when Iran started coming under increased Western pressure
   over its nuclear work.

   "Iran is understood to have continued or restarted some R&amp;D activities
   since then," said nuclear proliferation analyst Peter Crail of the
   U.S.-based Arms Control Association, a research and advocacy group.

   Iran denies accusations it is seeking nuclear arms, saying they are based
   on forged documents. It says its uranium enrichment program is aimed at
   generating electricity so that it can export more of its abundant oil.

   Many conservative experts criticized the 2007 findings as inaccurate and
   naive, and U.S. intelligence agencies now believe Iranian leaders have
   resumed closed-door debates over the last four years about whether to
   build a nuclear bomb.

   "I suspect that the new IAEA report will play into the hands of U.S.
   conservative and Israeli critics of the 2007 NIE (National Intelligence
   Estimate), who had accused the U.S. intelligence community of playing down
   evidence of clandestine nuclear weapons activities in Iran," said Shannon
   Kile of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute think tank.

   "SERIOUS SCIENTIFIC INTENT"

   The IAEA report, due to be submitted to member states in the next few
   days, is expected to provide new evidence of explosives and physics
   research suggesting Iran is seeking the capability to design nuclear
   weapons.

   Some of the activities have little application other than atomic
   bomb-making, including computer modeling of a nuclear weapon, sources
   familiar with the document said.

   They said it would support intelligence reports that Iran built a large
   steel container at the Parchin military complex southeast of Tehran for
   the purpose of carrying out tests with high explosives usable for a
   nuclear chain reaction.

   "It is a forensic body of evidence that shows some serious scientific
   intent," one of the Western diplomats said.

   In February, U.S. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said
   Iran was "keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons in part by
   developing various nuclear capabilities that better position it to produce
   such weapons."

   Crail said Clapper's statements were not "inconsistent with the notion
   that some weapons-related R&amp;D has resumed which is not part of a
   determined, integrated weapons-development program of the type that Iran
   maintained prior to 2003."

   Mark Fitzpatrick, a director of the International Institute for Strategic
   Studies, said it was too early to say whether the IAEA report will cast
   doubt on the 2007 NIE assessment.

   "The U.S. intelligence community already has the information in the IAEA
   report," Fitzpatrick said, adding that Clapper as recently as March
   confirmed the belief that Iran had not made a decision to restart its
   nuclear weapons program.

   "The apparent disconnect between that statement and the leaks that have
   come out about the IAEA report probably pertain to the time frame of the
   weapons research and development and the level and scale of the activity
   that the IAEA apparently believes continued after 2003," he said.

   (Editing by Mark Heinrich)

   On 11/07/2011 09:02 AM, Chris Farnham wrote:

             I'm thinking we'll see a bucket load of items out of Iran, the
             US and Europe today regarding the coming IAEA report and all the
             politicing around it. Might as well have them all in one place
             for ease of reading [chris]

     Obviously waaaaay too much info here to rep. The key element of this
     item is the leaking of the info before the release of the report in
     order to prime/set the agenda by focusing on particular aspects and
     findings of the report. this leak is obviously a part of the concerted
     PR operation on behalf of the Israelis, US and possibly some Europeans
     and KSA. The items of the report are secondary in importance to the
     agenda that is being played out here to increase pressure on Iran,
     probably in the attempt to increase sanctions and push it to the top of
     the global consciousness thus giving the US increased leverage to
     bargain the best possible pull out of Iraq/Afghanistan [chris]

     there was a strange report of an anonymous speaker at a forum last
     friday, this may be related to that [johnblasing]

     IAEA says foreign expertise has brought Iran to threshold of nuclear
     capability

     http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iaea-says-foreign-expertise-has-brought-iran-to-threshold-of-nuclear-capability/2011/11/05/gIQAc6hjtM_print.html

     By Joby Warrick, Monday, November 7, 4:41 AM

     Intelligence provided to U.N. nuclear officials shows that Iran's
     government has mastered the critical steps needed to build a nuclear
     weapon, receiving assistance from foreign scientists to overcome key
     technical hurdles, according to Western diplomats and nuclear experts
     briefed on the findings.

     Documents and other records provide new details on the role played by a
     former Soviet weapons scientist who allegedly tutored Iranians over
     several years on building high-precision detonators of the kind used to
     trigger a nuclear chain reaction, the officials and experts said.
     Crucial technology linked to experts in Pakistan and North Korea also
     helped propel Iran to the threshold of nuclear capability, they added.

     The officials, citing secret intelligence provided over several years to
     the International Atomic Energy Agency, said the records reinforce
     concerns that Iran continued to conduct weapons-related research after
     2003 - when, U.S. intelligence agencies believe, Iranian leaders halted
     such experiments in response to international and domestic pressures.

     The U.N. nuclear watchdog is due to release a report this week laying
     out its findings on Iran's efforts to obtain sensitive nuclear
     technology. Fears that Iran could quickly build an atomic bomb if it
     chooses to has fueled anti-Iran rhetoric and new threats of military
     strikes. Some U.S. arms-control groups have cautioned against what they
     fear could be an overreaction to the report, saying there is still time
     to persuade Iran to change its behavior.

     Iranian officials expressed indifference about the report.

     "Let them publish and see what happens," said Iran's foreign minister
     and former nuclear top official, Ali Akbar Salehi, the semiofficial Mehr
     News Agency reported Saturday.

     Salehi said that the controversy over Iran's nuclear program is "100
     percent political" and that the IAEA is "under pressure from foreign
     powers."

     `Never really stopped'

     Although the IAEA has chided Iran for years to come clean about a number
     of apparently weapons-related scientific projects, the new disclosures
     fill out the contours of an apparent secret research program that was
     more ambitious, more organized and more successful than commonly
     suspected. Beginning early in the last decade and apparently resuming -
     though at a more measured pace - after a pause in 2003, Iranian
     scientists worked concurrently across multiple disciplines to obtain key
     skills needed to make and test a nuclear weapon that could fit inside
     the country's long-range missiles, said David Albright, a former IAEA
     official who has reviewed the intelligence files.
     "The program never really stopped," said Albright, president of the
     Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security. The
     institute performs widely respected independent analyses of nuclear
     programs in countries around the world, often drawing from IAEA data.

     "After 2003, money was made available for research in areas that sure
     look like nuclear weapons work but were hidden within civilian
     institutions," Albright said.

     U.S. intelligence officials maintain that Iran's leaders have not
     decided whether to build nuclear weapons but are intent on gathering all
     the components and skills so they can quickly assemble a bomb if they
     choose to. Iran has consistently maintained that its nuclear activities
     are peaceful and intended only to generate electricity.

     The IAEA has declined to comment on the intelligence it has received
     from member states, including the United States, pending the release of
     its report.

     But some of the highlights were described in a presentation by Albright
     at a private conference of intelligence professionals last week.
     PowerPoint slides from the presentation were obtained by The Washington
     Post, and details of Albright's summary were confirmed by two European
     diplomats privy to the IAEA's internal reports. The two officials spoke
     on the condition of anonymity, in keeping with diplomatic protocol.

     Albright said IAEA officials, based on the totality of the evidence
     given to them, have concluded that Iran "has sufficient information to
     design and produce a workable implosion nuclear device" using highly
     enriched uranium as its fissile core. In the presentation, he described
     intelligence that points to a formalized and rigorous process for
     gaining all the necessary skills for weapons-building, using native
     talent as well as a generous helping of foreign expertise.

     "The [intelligence] points to a comprehensive project structure and
     hierarchy with clear responsibilities, timelines and deliverables,"
     Albright said, according to the notes from the presentation.

     Key outside assistance

     According to Albright, one key breakthrough that has not been publicly
     described was Iran's success in obtaining design information for a
     device known as an R265 generator. The device is a hemispherical
     aluminum shell with an intricate array of high explosives that detonate
     with split-second precision. These charges compress a small sphere of
     enriched uranium or plutonium to trigger a nuclear chain reaction.

     Creating such a device is a formidable technical challenge, and Iran
     needed outside assistance in designing the generator and testing its
     performance, Albright said.

     According to the intelligence provided to the IAEA, key assistance in
     both areas was provided by Vyacheslav Danilenko, a former Soviet nuclear
     scientist who was contracted in the mid-1990s by Iran's Physics Research
     Center, a facility linked to the country's nuclear program. Documents
     provided to the U.N. officials showed that Danilenko offered assistance
     to the Iranians over at least five years, giving lectures and sharing
     research papers on developing and testing an explosives package that the
     Iranians apparently incorporated into their warhead design, according to
     two officials with access to the IAEA's confidential files.

     Danilenko's role was judged to be so critical that IAEA investigators
     devoted considerable effort to obtaining his cooperation, the two
     officials said. The scientist acknowledged his role but said he thought
     his work was limited to assisting civilian engineering projects, the
     sources said.

     There is no evidence that Russian government officials knew of
     Danilenko's activities in Iran. E-mails requesting comment from Russian
     officials in Washington and Moscow were not returned. Efforts to reach
     Danilenko through his former company were not successful.

     Iran relied on foreign experts to supply mathematical formulas and codes
     for theoretical design work - some of which appear to have originated in
     North Korea, diplomats and weapons experts say. Additional help appears
     to have come from the father of Pakistan's nuclear program, Abdul Qadeer
     Khan, whose design for a device known as a neutron initiator was found
     in Iran, the sources said. Khan is known to have provided nuclear
     blueprints to Libya that included a neutron initiator, a device that
     shoots a stream of atomic particles into a nuclear weapon's fissile core
     at the start of the nuclear chain reaction.

     One Iranian document provided to the IAEA portrayed Iranian scientists
     as discussing plans to conduct a four-year study of neutron initiators
     beginning in 2007, four years after Iran was said to have halted such
     research.

     "It is unknown if it commenced or progressed as planned," Albright said.
     The disclosures come against a backdrop of new threats of military
     strikes on Iran. Israeli newspapers reported last week that there is
     high-level government support in Israel for a military attack on Iran's
     nuclear installations.

     "One of the problems with such open threats of military action is that
     it furthers the drift towards a military conflict and makes it more
     difficult to dial down tensions," said Peter Crail, a nonproliferation
     analyst with the Arms Control Association, a Washington advocacy group.
     "It also risks creating an assumption that we can always end Iran's
     nuclear program with a few airstrikes if nothing else works. That's
     simply not the case."

     Special correspondent Thomas Erdbrink in Tehran contributed to this
     report.

       (Corr) Cleric asks IAEA head to avoid "lies"against Iran, save dignity
       of Agency

       At 0522 gmt, IRTV1 started airing the Id al-Adha prayer sermons in
       Tehran by Ayatollah Seyyed Ahmad Khatami live. Ayatollah Khatami
       listed 10 types of plots that America and Israel have resorted to
       against Iran during the past 32 year.

       He said: "During the past 32 years, we have witnessed different types
       of plots of the global arrogance against us, especially of the US and
       its illegitimate child, the Zionist regime. I have written down 10
       types of these [plots] - seven of which refer to the domestic field
       and three others the foreign field."

       He described "ethnic wars" as the first type of plots. Then he spoke
       about "assassinations" and said: "Over 12,000 people have been
       assassinated by the US and its agents in this country" He added that
       Iran possesses 100 "undeniable documents" that prove America's
       involvement in the assassinations inside the country and outside of
       it, in other countries.

       He referred to the "eight-year imposed war" (Iraq-Iran war) as the
       third type of plot and termed "influences up to the level of the
       president" as the fourth type of plots (reference to the 2009
       presidential candidate Mirhoseyn Musavi).

       Describing "coups" as the fifth type of plot, he said that six coups
       were initiated by the US in Iran, all of which, he said were "foiled"
       with the help of God.

       He called the "soft warfare and"1388 sedition" (2009 post-poll
       protests) are the sixth and seventh types of America's and Israel's
       plots against Iran.

       Regarding the foreign types of plots, Khatami said: "Eight: Intrusion
       into Afghanistan aimed at creating a base against the Islamic Iran.
       Nine: Intrusion into Iraq to establish control over Iran. 10: New
       Middle East, which was aimed at curbing the wave of the huge Islamic
       Revolution."

       He added that all these plots were "foiled" with the help of God.

       Source: Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1, Tehran, in
       Persian 0525gmt 07 Nov 11

       BBC Mon Alert ME1 MEPol sh

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

       Top cleric lists 10 types of US, Israel "plots" against Iran

       At 0522 gmt, IRTV1 started airing the Id al-Adha prayer sermons in
       Tehran by Ayatollah Seyyed Ahmad Khatami live. Ayatollah Khatami
       listed 10 types of plots that America and Israel have resorted to
       against Iran during the past 32 year.

       He said: "During the past 32 years, we have witnessed different types
       of plots of the global arrogance against us, especially of the US and
       its illegitimate child, the Zionist regime. I have written down 10
       types of these [plots] - seven of which refer to the domestic field
       and three others the foreign field."

       He described "ethnic wars" as the first type of plots. Then he spoke
       about "assassinations" and said: "Over 12,000 people have been
       assassinated by the US and its agents in this country" He added that
       Iran possesses 100 "undeniable documents" that prove America's
       involvement in the assassinations inside the country and outside of
       it, in other countries.

       He referred to the "eight-year imposed war" (Iraq-Iran war) as the
       third type of plot and termed "influences up to the level of the
       president" as the fourth type of plots (reference to the 2009
       presidential candidate Mirhoseyn Musavi).

       Describing "coups" as the fifth type of plot, he said that six coups
       were initiated by the US in Iran, all of which, he said were "foiled"
       with the help of God.

       He called the "soft warfare and"1388 sedition" (2009 post-poll
       protests) are the sixth and seventh types of America's and Israel's
       plots against Iran.

       Regarding the foreign types of plots, Khatami said: "Eight: Intrusion
       into Afghanistan aimed at creating a base against the Islamic Iran.
       Nine: Intrusion into Iraq to establish control over Iran. 10: New
       Middle East, which was aimed at curbing the wave of the huge Islamic
       Revolution."

       He added that all these plots were "foiled" with the help of God.

       Source: Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1, Tehran, in
       Persian 0522gmt 07 Nov 11

       BBC Mon Alert ME1 MEPol sh

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

         More anti-Western remarks attributed to Khatami [chris]

         Top clear asks IAEA chief to avoid "lies" against Iran, save dignity
         of Agency

         During the Id al-Adha sermons at Tehran University being aired live
         by IRTV1, Ayatollah Seyyed Ahmad Khatami referred to the upcoming
         IAEA report on Iran nuclear programme and addressed the
         Secretary-General of the Agency [Yukiya Amano], saying: "Do not
         insult the dignity of the International Atomic Energy Agency with
         your conduct."

         He added that if he [Amano] is used as a "week tool of the US" and
         acts against the "independent nation" of Iran and "publishes lies"
         in the form of a document then "whatever dignity is left of the
         Agency, will be wiped off."

         Thanking God for his blessings, he further said that all "plots"
         against Iran have always been "nullified".

         He added: "I explicitly tell America that the period of superpower
         has ended [for you]. America is being considered like an empty drum
         in the world, today. Neither are you the America of the past, nor
         the Islamic Iran is Iran of the past of during the Shah's time."

         He added that Iran today is a strong country that can confront any
         plot in a manner that will be a "lesson" for others.

         Source: Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1, Tehran, in
         Persian 0525gmt 07 Nov 11

         BBC Mon Alert ME1 MEPol sh

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

    Iran foreign minister terms Bushehr plant "symbol" of Iran-Russia ties   
                                                                             
    Text of report by Iranian official government news agency IRNA website   
                                                                             
    Tehran, 6 November, IRNA: Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said here on 
    Sunday [6 November] that Bushehr nuclear power plant is a symbol of      
    Iran-Russia cooperation.                                                 
                                                                             
    He made the remark in a meeting with new Russian Ambassador to Iran Leon 
    Jagarian, who submitted a copy of his credentials to Salehi.             
                                                                             
    "Bushehr power plant as a symbol of Iran-Russia cooperation proves that  
    the two countries can exchange views and cooperate at regional and       
    international levels.                                                    
                                                                             
    Pointing to the Iran-Russia excellent relations, Salehi said             
    unfortunately the volume of trade exchange between the two countries is  
    not enough while they have high potentials in this regard.               
                                                                             
    Expressing Iran's readiness to increase the current volume of economic   
    exchange by 10bn dollars, he said the two countries can expand their     
    cooperation in such fields as politics, economy, trade, culture, oil and 
    gas and power plant construction.                                        
                                                                             
    Jagarian described the recent meeting between the Iranian and Russian    
    presidents in Astana, Kazakhstan as a new phase in the two countries'    
    relations.                                                               
                                                                             
    He also expressed his country's readiness to cooperate with Iran at      
    regional and international levels.                                       
                                                                             
    Source: Islamic Republic News Agency website, Tehran, in English 1613gmt 
    06 Nov 11                                                                
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEPol sh                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

           Not on IRNA english yet - CR

    Attacking Iran would make US, Israel "pay heavy price" - official        
                                                                             
    Excerpt from report by Iranian news channel Press TV website             
                                                                             
    A member of Iran's Assembly of Expert says that the United States and    
    Israel will have to pay a heavy price for any military attack on Iran's  
    nuclear facilities.                                                      
                                                                             
    Seyyed Mahmud Alavi told IRNA on Sunday [6 November] that Washington and 
    Tel Aviv are aware of the fact that putting their anti-Iran threats into 
    practice would cost them dearly, and thus they would not become involved 
    in such folly.                                                           
                                                                             
    He stated that the US and Israel know that such empty threats cannot     
    intimidate Iran and also know that they would receive a crushing         
    response if they ever attack the Islamic Republic.                       
                                                                             
    [Passage omitted: background information]                                
                                                                             
    Source: Press TV website, Tehran, in English 1419gmt 06 Nov 11           
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEPol sh                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

             Transcript Ehud Barak interview
             Page last updated at 11:09 GMT, Sunday, 6 November 2011
             PLEASE NOTE "THE ANDREW MARR SHOW" MUST BE CREDITED IF ANY PART
             OF THIS TRANSCRIPT IS USED
             http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/andrew_marr_show/9632770.stm
             JEREMY VINE:

             Now by any standards Ehud Barak has had an astonishing career
             serving his country. Israel's Prime Minister during the Camp
             David negotiations with Yasser Arafat now serves as both Deputy
             Prime Minister and Defence Minister in the current government.
             Before entering politics, he was one of the country's most
             decorated soldiers carrying out the kind of military ops that
             are now the stuff of legend among many Israelis. So a man of
             peace or a man of war? When I met him in London recently, I
             began by asking why his government has authorised the building
             of more settlements despite international criticism.

             EHUD BARAK:

             We are building in Jerusalem. It's our capital. We are building
             in the Jewish neighbourhoods of Jerusalem. It's a city of
             700,000 people. You have to build and we will not accept anyone
             has the right to intervene in this. And we ...

             JEREMY VINE:

             (over) Well that is seen as speeding up, isn't it? That's seen
             as acceleration.

             EHUD BARAK:

             (over) No, it's not. No speeding up ... It's about numbers and
             pace, numbers per unit time. When Olmert was Prime Minister five
             years ago, we were building our defence minister twice the rate
             we are building now. When I was Prime Minister ten years ago, we
             were building four times the rate we are building right now. So
             it's not about the pace.

             JEREMY VINE:

             But why not ... Again it's about the symbolism. Why not just
             stop for a while because the other side see this as getting in
             the way, don't they?

             EHUD BARAK:

             No, no, the other side plays with it as a kind of manipulation
             to put certain preconditions into the dialogue. The reason that
             Olmert's government and my government could do it is because
             somehow we managed to convince the rest of the world that we are
             genuine in our talks and now we are facing more sophisticated
             Palestinian group which feels the zeitgeist behind them. They
             feel that they have good will from many international bodies, so
             they try to play with this issue of settlement. It really
             shouldn't matter because ...

             JEREMY VINE:

             Well you said something very, very interesting there - the
             phrases you've used - where you say you're dealing with a
             sophisticated Palestinian leadership now and they're very
             zeitgeisty and I couldn't have put it better myself in these
             questions. They're getting world opinion behind them, aren't
             they?

             EHUD BARAK:

             Yuh, yuh. We have to work properly to allow our people, our kind
             of spokesmen to talk more often to others, but it won't solve
             the issue. It cannot ...

             JEREMY VINE:

             (over) Are you frustrated at that?

             EHUD BARAK:

             I am a little bit frustrated by the fact that we cannot convince
             even some of our friends.

             JEREMY VINE:

             Okay, just to be clear. You accept that it strengthens Hamas if
             you go on building these settlements or not?

             EHUD BARAK:

             I don't think it relates to Hamas. Hamas basically is
             challenging Abu Mazen and the Palestinian authority. They are
             turning to terror. We cannot negotiate with them. Hamas are
             shooting at us rockets. You know just last week we got dozens of
             rockets in our southern part of the country. One man, father of
             four, was killed. That's something that cannot go together with
             peacemaking.

             JEREMY VINE:

             Let me change the subject.

             EHUD BARAK:

             (over) So it will be a challenge for Abu Mazen to take control
             over his own political system.

             JEREMY VINE:
             Alright, alright, I want to just move on because we haven't got
             much time. I want to talk to you about Iran as well. And I
             gather if we had the Israeli newspapers here and we opened them
             up, we would see that everyone in Israel is now thinking that
             you're getting ready to attack Iran. Is that right? Is that what
             people are saying?

             EHUD BARAK:

             Believe me, don't ... I do not try to underestimate the nature
             of the Iranian threat. That's a major threat for the stability
             of the whole region, probably of the whole world. A nuclear Iran
             - and they are determined to reach nuclear military capability -
             can open a major arms race, nuclear arms race in the whole
             Middle East. It can change the effectiveness of their supporting
             and their co-sponsoring of terror all around the region. They
             can ...

             JEREMY VINE:

             (over) Which is why the Israeli papers are saying aha, you're
             about to strike on them.

             EHUD BARAK:

             No, but I am telling it for years now. And they will intimidate
             neighbours in a much more effective way, especially when America
             and others are moving out of the region. I hope that the IAEA
             Report next week will tell the whole world a little bit more
             explicitly what they are really doing in regard to their nuclear
             plan.

             JEREMY VINE:

             (over) This is the narrative that's coming together. It's the
             missile test. It's the long range bombing plan. It's the IAEA
             Report which you mentioned. So they may say that Iran is getting
             closer to a bomb.

             EHUD BARAK:

             We strongly believe that sanctions are effective or could be
             effective if they are little and paralysing enough, that
             diplomacy could work if enough unity could be synchronised
             between the major players, but that no option should be removed
             from the table.

             JEREMY VINE:

             You have an amazing military record, and for those who don't
             know it, 19... - correct me if I'm wrong here - 1972 led the
             mission to free hostages on a Sabena flight; 1973, I read
             somewhere you dressed as a woman to assassinate - you're nodding
             - members of the PLO.

             EHUD BARAK:

             (over) Not as a hobby, yuh.

             JEREMY VINE:

             Okay. A scene in the film Munich reflected that. You were
             involved in Operation Entebbe in 1976; helped dismantle the
             Palestinian terror cell known as Black September. I'm thinking
             you're not really into diplomacy here. You would like to attack
             Iran.

             EHUD BARAK:

             No, I was also Foreign Affairs Minister of Israel and Prime
             Minister. In the last 15 years I didn't shot a single shot at
             anyone and I played a lot round the diplomatic saloons and the
             TV interviews as well. You know it's too serious. Israel is
             there. A person cannot choose his parents and a nation cannot
             choose its neighbours. We are living in a tough neighbourhood.
             No mercy for the weak, no second opportunity for those who
             cannot defend themselves. We would love to have the Canadians as
             our neighbours, but unfortunately the Americans got them. It's a
             tough neighbourhood and we have to be strong.

             JEREMY VINE:

             (over) One more because if you suddenly attack Iran next week, I
             want to make sure we've asked every question here. Have you got
             British support for that - for flying over them and dropping a
             bomb on their nuclear reactors?

             EHUD BARAK:

             I'm not going even to respond to this. May I say we are not ...
             don't worry about your next week programme, but the Iranian
             challenge is serious. This is something that should be prevented
             from happening. We have to stay there. We are strong. Israel is
             the strongest country a thousand miles around Jerusalem. We plan
             to remain the strongest country around. But we are at the same
             time peaceful. We are ready to make peace at any moment with any
             one of our neighbours.

             JEREMY VINE:

             So pretty cautious. Ehud Barak there, Israel's Defence Minister.
             No options ruled out on Iran.

             INTERVIEW ENDS

 --
 Clint Richards
 Global Monitor
 clint.richards@stratfor.com
 cell: 81 080 4477 5316
 office: 512 744 4300 ex:40841

             Iran Calligrapher's Association of North America, according to
             Google. Possibly not the entity being referred to below, though
             [chris]

             No idea what ICANA is... - CR

    Nuclear talks possible only if IAEA submits "honest" report - Iran       
    official                                                                 
                                                                             
    Text of report by Iranian news channel Press TV website                  
                                                                             
    An Iranian lawmaker says Iran has nothing to hide regarding its nuclear  
    programme and Tehran will only participate in negotiations if the UN     
    atomic agency is "honest" in its reports.                                
                                                                             
    Deputy Chairman of Iran's Majlis (parliament) National Security and      
    Foreign Policy Committee Esma'il Kowsari said that if the International  
    Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) resorts to deception then Iran "will set     
    conditions for talks."                                                   
                                                                             
    He went on to say that so long as the IAEA submits to the will of        
    arrogant powers particularly Washington, the agency's reports will       
    always be compiled to portray Iran in a negative light.                  
                                                                             
    "While the US has between 7,000 to 10,000 nuclear warheads and no other  
    country has atrocities such as Nagasaki and Hiroshima on its record, the 
    agency makes no effort to act against it (the US) and does not even dare 
    write a report against it," ICANA quoted him as saying on Sunday.        
                                                                             
    The IAEA director-general Yukiya Amano is scheduled to submit his new    
    report on Iran's nuclear case to IAEA member states on 8 November 2011.  
                                                                             
    However, Amano's visit to Washington for talks with US officials ahead   
    of the publication of the report has cast grave suspicion over its       
    objectivity and sincerity.                                               
                                                                             
    Iran has always rejected US allegations that it is pursuing a military   
    nuclear program and asserted the right to develop and acquire nuclear    
    technology for peaceful purposes as a signatory to the Non-Proliferation 
    Treaty [NPT].                                                            
                                                                             
    Source: Press TV website, Tehran, in English 1925gmt 06 Nov 11           
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEPol sh                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

             On 11/6/11 9:43 PM, Chris Farnham wrote:

               al-Ahkbar isn't in english - CR

                 Iran's Ahmadinejad defiant as U.S. raises heat-paper
                 http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/irans-ahmadinejad-defiant-as-us-raises-heat-paper/
                 06 Nov 2011 23:19

                 CAIRO, Nov 7 (Reuters) - The United States fears Iran's
                 growing military power because it is now able to compete
                 with Israel and the West, Iranian President Mahmoud
                 Ahmadinejad said in comments carried by an Egyptian
                 newspaper on Monday.

                 Responding to a toughening stance from the United States and
                 Israel against Tehran, Ahmadinejad accused Washington of
                 inventing conspiracies to discredit Iran and sowing discord
                 with its near neighbour Saudi Arabia.

                 "Yes, we have military capabilities that are different from
                 any other country in the region," Egyptian daily al-Akhbar
                 cited Ahmadinejad as saying. "Iran is increasing in
                 capability and advancement and therefore we are able to
                 compete with Israel and the West and especially the United
                 States."

                 "The U.S. fears Iran's capability," he told the paper. "Iran
                 will not permit (anyone from making) a move against it."
                 Iran's Islamic rulers, who say Israel has no right to exist,
                 deny accusations that they are seeking nuclear weapons and
                 have warned they will respond to any attacks by striking at
                 Israel and U.S. interests in the Gulf.

                 A senior U.S. military official said on Friday Iran had
                 become the biggest threat to the United States and Israel's
                 president said the military option to stop the Islamic
                 republic from obtaining nuclear weapons was nearer.

                 Ahmadinejad repeated that Iran does not own a nuclear bomb,
                 but said Israel's end was inevitable.
                 The U.N. nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, is expected this week
                 to issue its most detailed report yet on research in Iran
                 seen as geared to developing atomic bombs.

                 "It is Israel that has about 300 nuclear warheads. Iran is
                 only keen to have nuclear capability for peaceful means," he
                 said, accusing Washington of lumping Iran with Syria, the
                 Islamist Hamas movement that rules Gaza and Hezbollah in
                 Lebanon.

                 The U.S. portrays those four as "the Axis of Evil to save
                 the Zionist entity (Israel). But the Zionists are bound to
                 go out of existence," he said.

                 Responding to a U.S. claim that Iran was involved in a plot
                 to kill the Saudi ambassador to Washington, Ahmadinejad
                 said: "Iran is farthest from thinking of carrying out such
                 crimes but the U.S. is always inventing conspiracies against
                 Iran".

                 "The U.S. fears any friendship between us and Saudi Arabia
                 and therefore incites disagreements," he said. "To stop the
                 U.S. in its tracks we must deepen the elements of
                 friendship... We are ready for this and the relation between
                 Saudi and Iran already exists and has not been cut off."
                 (Reporting by Marwa Awad; Writing by Tom Pfeiffer; Editing
                 by Matthew Jones)

 --
 Clint Richards
 Global Monitor
 clint.richards@stratfor.com
 cell: 81 080 4477 5316
 office: 512 744 4300 ex:40841

 --
 Clint Richards
 Global Monitor
 clint.richards@stratfor.com
 cell: 81 080 4477 5316
 office: 512 744 4300 ex:40841

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +216 22 73 23 19
 www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-08 15:20:03</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2822375_more-g3-iran-un-mil-iran-iaea-report-leaked-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ben.preisler@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2831900</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-11 13:59:34</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2831900_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2835178</id>
    <title>Re: Tirana update
</title>
    <description>   It would be to crack down on protesters, yes. 
   And I disagree. From Tiranas perspective it is better to crack down early
   and hard. 

   On Jan 22, 2011, at 3:24 PM, Bayless Parsley
   &lt;bayless.parsley@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

          Rumors continue to spread within the population that agents of the
     State Intelligence Service (SHISH) had infiltrated the crowds and
     provoked yesterday's violence. (Comment: No proof of this, but would not
     be the first time SHISH was used in this capacity).
     Would SHISH be trying to instigate violence so as to justify a govt
     crackdown on socialists? Seems like that is an unnecessary risk... No
     one wants civil war when youre The one actually in power already.
      
     On 2011 Jan 22, at 13:36, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

       From TrapWire --
       Just in from a contact (Former senior law enforcement officer with
       direct access to Opposition party members).
        
       Tirana : 22 Jan 2011 (Situation at 1930 local)
        
       a**         Situation today calm, as Govt declared day of mourning for
       the "martyrs" (Berisha's words).
       a**         The Opposition has been hold-up all day today in Mayor Edi
       Rama's office discussing next steps. There is some reluctance on their
       part as to whether tomorrow's protest should proceed as planned. They
       have apparently received word that many protesters intend to come
       armed to protect themselves against the police.  Rama has commented
       privately he may lead the protest to try and keep them peaceful.
       a**         Despite this, the Opposition continues to insist they will
       not stop actions against the current regime until Berisha resigns. In
       response, Berisha has declared that "anyone touching an official
       government building will meet the same fate as the protestors
       yesterday."
       a**         Rumblings have started in other major cities throughout
       Albania re. sympathetic protests. Most notably Shkoder, Durres and
       Gjirokaster.
       a**         There are reports of a handful of arrests of senior police
       officials following yesterday's incident. Investigation is now
       underway as to who gave the order to fire upon the crowds.
       a**         Rumors continue to spread within the population that
       agents of the State Intelligence Service (SHISH) had infiltrated the
       crowds and provoked yesterday's violence. (Comment: No proof of this,
       but would not be the first time SHISH was used in this capacity).
       a**         Note: Great deal of fear and apprehension amongst the
       populace, particularly in Tirana. Most still have vivid memories of
       '90 and '97. Average Albanian is still well armed following the
       ransacking of weapons depots in '97 and an escalation in violence is
       not unthinkable.
        
       Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2011-01-22 22:36:48</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2835178_re-tirana-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2835575</id>
    <title>Albania 
</title>
    <description>   From TrapWire in response to Marko's questions --
    

   Fred -- Just in. Haven't had time to give a good scrub/spell check etc. so
   might be a bit raw. (His English is excellent, but not perfect).  M

   ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 
      

    

    

    

               1. Any thoughts on what repercussions unrest in Albania could
   have for the region as a whole?

    

               Instability in Albania generally means instability within the
   Albanian diaspora in the region.

    

   .         Kosova: Just came out of general elections and is now facing an
   internal crises . The winning party does not have enough votes to elect a
   PM or create a new government. At the same time, the leadership of the
   winning party has been accused for war crimes and trafficking in human
   organs by a Swiss reporter. These issues have endangered the current
   political process towards Kosovo independence. Negotiations with Serbia
   are now on hold. An unstable political situation in Albania will be a big
   loss for Kosovo. Kosovo has no representation in international
   institutions and Albania is her biggest supporter and ally regarding
   Kosovo foreign policy.  A crisis in Albania will make the dialogue between
   Kosovo and Serbia, which is seeking a division of northern Kosovo.

    

   .         Macedonia: Our neighboring country has a population of 30%
   Albanians, who have been in constant conflict with the Macedonian
   government regarding their rights as a minority. Macedonian-Albanians are
   divided in to two groups:  one that is more liberal and has assimilated
   into Macedonian society; and the other a much more radical group that is
   in conflict Macedonian policies. Add to this Macedonia's on-going conflict
   with Greece, and one could speculate that any major crisis in Albania will
   only compound the problems inside Macedonia -- particularly for those
   Albanians seeking greater rights inside Macedonia. There is a precedence
   for this problem during the 1997 conflict in Albania.

    

   .         Greece: Our only neighboring country with EU membership is still
   going through a very bad political and economic crises itself. There are
   almost 1.5 million Albanians living in Greece -- many are illegal
   immigrants working illegally. Another crises in Albania could likely fuel
   another mass exodus to Greece (and Italy) -- particularly now that
   Albanians can finally travel without visas in Europe.   

    

   2.  After 1997 anarchy, weapons flowed across the borders to Kosovo and
   Macedonia. Any chance that another crisis has an effect on neighboring
   countries?

    

               In my opinion, it is unlikely the current situation will
   deteriorate to the point of 1997, which was fueled by economic collapse
   rather than only political differences. Albanians still have strong
   memories and feelings about this period, and would likely try to avoid a
   repeat...particularly as the only groups who will profit from another
   crises would be the weapons, drugs, and fuel traffickers .

          

    

               3.  What is Berisha's role in neighboring Kosovo and
   Macedonia. Does he have influence with Kosovo leadership? Or Macedonian
   Albanian leadership?

    

               Generally speaking, Berisha does not have much of a role in
   the region. He continues to be viewed as a model of the old leadership.
   Clearly, Kosovo will always          need the support of the Albanian PM
   and his government; however, many Kosovars remember that Berisha gave only
   lukewarm support to the KLA, and was   believed to have profited
   personally by allowing fuel shipments into Serbia and Montenegro, despite
   the NATO embargo at the time. Berisha is still viewed as            
   having too close of ties to Serbia -- one of his closest contacts is Damir
   Fasllic, a character who is believed to have contacts at the highest
   levels of the Serbian           government. Berisha does not appear to
   have particularly strong ties to Macedonia and, with the loss of
   Jukanovic, probably has limited influence in Montenegro as          well

            

    

                4.  If there is a change in government to Edvin Rama, would
   it in any way change the situation in Albania or region?

    

               Edvin Rama is the leader of the Albanian opposition Socialist
   Party -- which represents about 50 % of the Albanian voters. Rama is known
   as a head-strong and       somewhat radical figure amongst the
   international community in Albania. He is not very good at dialoguing --
   often creating situations that neither side can win.           Despite
   these weaknesses, Rama represents the "modern" leader that many Albanians
   have been hoping for since 1990. His work in modernizing and cleaning-up
               the capital has made him very popular, and given him the image
   of someone who can get things done for the people (He has twice been
   re-elected as mayor).          Rama's popularity and modern thinking has
   been commented on favorably by many EU leaders and representatives.

    
</description>
    <date>2011-01-26 01:09:57</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2835575_albania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2850371</id>
    <title>Fwd: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
</title>
    <description>   Ryan Sims
   Global Intelligence
   STRATFOR
   T: 512-744-4087
   F: 512-744-0570
   ryan.sims@stratfor.com
   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
     Date: June 16, 2011 1:04:08 PM CDT
     To: STRATFOR &lt;service@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: RE: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
     Kudos*a great explanation for those who don't understand or appreciate
     the efforts that go into a real intel op*as opposed to the Hollywood BS
     everyone seems to expect.
      
     I remind people all the time that we got the courier's name back in '03
     -- and thank goodness didn't take the typical "cuff 'em and drag him in"
     approach many had advocated. We stayed patient and threw real analytical
     support into this one. Took some time -- but the patient oriental
     approach usually pays bigger dividends.  M
      
     From: STRATFOR [mailto:mail@response.stratfor.com] 
     Sent: Thursday, June 16, 2011 11:45 AM
     To: Michael Maness
     Subject: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
      

View on Mobile Phone | Read the online version.                                  

      

     STRATFOR Weekly Intelligence Update                                      
     Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier: Special Edition of Above the        
     Tearline                                                                 
     The weekly Above the Tearline video series is part of our members-only   
     content. We hope you enjoy this exclusive chance to access it free.      
                                                                              
     [IMG]                                                                    
     Watch this exclusive edition of Above the Tearline                       
                                                                              
             Above the Tearline: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier          
                                                                              
                                                                              
                                                                              
     Vice President of Intelligence Fred Burton examines the sophisticated    
     surveillance operation that led to the raid on Osama bin Laden*s safe    
     house in Pakistan. Click here to view.                                   
     Save on annual memberships                                               
     Connect with usTwitterFacebookYoutubeSTRATFOR Mobile                     
     New to STRATFOR? Get these free intel reports emailed to you. If you did 
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     geopolitical &amp; security related updates, join our free email list.       
                                                                              
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     STRATFOR
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     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-06-16 20:08:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2850371_fwd-surveillance-of-bin-laden-s-courier-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>service@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>responses@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2851550</id>
    <title>Wires for Approval Template
</title>
    <description>16</description>
    <date>2011-12-06 23:38:04</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 02:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2851550_wires-for-approval-template-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ar@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/136/136715_Wires to Contractors for Approval Contractor payments.pdf</path><size>42745</size><md5></md5><sha1>3a4ef874b4d5710d3f757aeaa7ba4a512fe30160</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2855113</id>
    <title>[alpha] Fw: Oslo
</title>
    <description>   Trapwire

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:00:28 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Oslo

   My money's on a Libyan connection.

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 18:04:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2855113_-alpha-fw-oslo-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2855142</id>
    <title>[alpha] Fw: Oslo
</title>
    <description>   Trapwire

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:18:40 -0500 (CDT)
   To: burton@stratfor.com&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Oslo
   99 percent sure. Some reports already confirming.
    
   From: burton@stratfor.com [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, July 22, 2011 12:15 PM
   To: Michael Maness
   Subject: Re: Oslo
    
   Think it was a bomb?

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:00:28 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Oslo

   My money's on a Libyan connection.

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 18:31:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2855142_-alpha-fw-oslo-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2855301</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Once we do know, then we will know who was behind it.

   Until then, this is all conjecture and opinion.  And you know what
   opinions are like.

   On 7/22/11 9:13 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     We don't know

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:12:04 -0500 (CDT)
     To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
     Was the shooter a Libyan?

     On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:15:11</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2855301_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2856541</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Libyans also pay foreign mercenaries.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:12:04 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   Was the shooter a Libyan?

   On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:13:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2856541_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2856551</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Maybe, or he could be the Norwegian McVeigh.

   On 7/22/11 9:26 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     Mercenary
     Contract hit

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Hoor Jangda &lt;hoor.jangda@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:25:36 -0500 (CDT)
     To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
     the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
     height.

     On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

       Was the shooter a Libyan?

       On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:30:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2856551_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2869103</id>
    <title>Fwd: Tusiad Energy Projects
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-09-28 20:49:46</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 20:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2869103_fwd-tusiad-energy-projects-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>peter.zeihan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kendra.vessels@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/12/12884_lab-DevelopmentInvestment-210911-1919-115.pdf</path><size>136611</size><md5></md5><sha1>9dabde7f88117dd8266ffdf601b1278f0ab9d2d9</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2872060</id>
    <title>TrapWire read on Mubarak 
</title>
    <description>   Fill your gas tanks this weekend.

    

   (Panetta botched this one....)

   Really tough call. Mubarak has an ego bigger than Cowboy's Stadium and has
   long ago disassociated from the man-on-the-street. (Remind me to tell you
   some horror stories of working with the service there and the way the
   treated the citizenry). He's also not one to rule by committee, so there's
   probably little chance anyone's getting through to him with logic. Would
   also not surprise me if he's actually a little scared. Where exactly would
   he go...and what would he do if he leaves office this way? Is a date with
   the International Court in his future on human rights charges...like so
   many modern dictators? He can't be feeling too confident with this
   administration covering his ass if the Egyptian populace starts screaming
   for an accounting of past sins.

    

   The real kicker in all this is that the only reason we don't have a 9/11
   type incident happening every week in this country is because of dictators
   like Mubarak. He's kept his boot on the throat of the Brotherhood and
   every other radical Islamic group for some time now. Yes, he has probably
   thrown many people in prison for nothing more than being in the wrong
   place at the wrong time. But he's been one of our staunchest allies in the
   GWOT and we'll start paying the price (with more attacks on US facilities)
   when he's gone. If I were him, I'd take my millions, head to Tahiti and
   giggle at Obama as he struggles with the flood of attacks that are sure to
   come.

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-02-11 01:43:19</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2872060_trapwire-read-on-mubarak-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2881836</id>
    <title>Re: Contract Template
</title>
    <description>   Thanks!

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Korena Zucha" &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Kendra Vessels" &lt;kendra.vessels@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, June 28, 2011 11:06:46 AM
   Subject: Contract Template

   This is an example of one of our monitoring contracts. Anything that has
   to do with agreements, especially the legal terms and conditions usually
   has to be reviewed by Feldhaus. You can use this as a basis for a letter
   though, tweaking the format and language to fit what you need it to. The
   details or the scope of work is really the nuts and bolts and the most
   important part of any agreement.

   Also, see if Rob has a copy of the TrapWire partnership agreement you can
   use as a format to copy. Let me know if you want me to review anything.
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2881836_re-contract-template-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kendra.vessels@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2881877</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Qaddaffi out-sources jobs, going back to Carlos the Jackal.

   Ck the OS about 3-4 weeks ago, about Qaddaffi hiring mercs.

   The suspect could be ex-French Foreign Legion.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:30:48 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   Maybe, or he could be the Norwegian McVeigh.

   On 7/22/11 9:26 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     Mercenary
     Contract hit

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Hoor Jangda &lt;hoor.jangda@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:25:36 -0500 (CDT)
     To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
     the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
     height.

     On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

       Was the shooter a Libyan?

       On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:34:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2881877_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2881990</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111
</title>
    <description>   this dude really gives the impression that Moscow calls the shots in Kiev

   so basically, Med gets pissed b/c Timo is blowing Putin and not him, so he
   whines to Putin and says drop the B and get behind Yanu like me. Putin
   says fine, Yanu gets excited and oversteps his boundaries, and now Putin
   is like fix this shit Med and Med is like okay, but we dont know what Med
   is actually gonna do to slap Yanu around

   so what's the couterargument to this? Does Russia really have this much
   influence over the situation?  this is something we need to address in
   ukraine reassessment

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marc Lanthemann" &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

   CODE: UA111
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Kiev
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch.
   But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps
   this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to
   begin with.

    

   You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in
   power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew
   Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to
   solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be
   Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most
   easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got
   her in trouble and arrested.

    

   But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no
   respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev
   made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a
   deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if
   Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being
   the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU,
   military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension
   it had been pushing for.

    

   So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009,
   the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing
   to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of
   demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally.

    

   Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev
   to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing
   against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever
   will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-09-14 20:55:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2881990_re-alpha-insight-ukraine-moscow-kiev-spat-ua111-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2885185</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [CT] Fwd: [OS] CHINA/CSM/CT- Cisco Poised to Help
	China Keep an Eye on Its	Citizens
</title>
    <description>   I'm sitting here with a cisco guy.  What is the trapwire tech?  He's not
   involved with this project but let me know if there are any ques and I'll
   see what he can find out.

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Jul 4, 2011, at 8:55 PM, Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

     Maybe with talk of Trapwire technology and such we can provide some
     insight on this.  The addition of the cameras is not new, I think i had
     it in the bullets sometime earlier this year. 

     -------- Original Message --------

      Subject: [OS] CHINA/CSM/CT- Cisco Poised to Help China Keep an Eye on   
               Its Citizens                                                   
         Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2011 22:52:54 -0500                                
         From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;                         
     Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                  
           To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                  

         * JULY 5, 2011

     Censorship Inc.
     Cisco Poised to Help China Keep an Eye on Its Citizens
     Read more:
     http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304778304576377141077267316.html#ixzz1RCQsajlK
     By LORETTA CHAO in Beijing and DON CLARK in San Francisco
     [CISCO] Getty Images

     Cameras in Beijing's Tiananmen Square. U.S. firms can sell surveillance
     gear in China, but not equipment that is used only for crime control.

     Western companies including Cisco Systems Inc. are poised to help build
     an ambitious new surveillance project in Chinaa**a citywide network of
     as many as 500,000 cameras that officials say will prevent crime but
     that human-rights advocates warn could target political dissent.
     [CISCO_p1]

     The system, being built in the city of Chongqing over the next two to
     three years, is among the largest and most sophisticated
     video-surveillance projects of its kind in China, and perhaps the world.
     Dubbed "Peaceful Chongqing," it is planned to cover a half-million
     intersections, neighborhoods and parks over nearly 400 square miles, an
     area more than 25% larger than New York City.

     The project sheds light on how Western tech companies sell their wares
     in China, the Middle East and other places where there is potential for
     the gear to be used for political purposes and not just safety. The
     products range from Internet-censoring software to sophisticated
     networking gear. China in particular has drawn criticism for treating
     political dissent as a crime and has a track record of using technology
     to suppress it.

     An examination of the Peaceful Chongqing project by The Wall Street
     Journal shows Cisco is expected to supply networking equipment that is
     essential to operating large and complicated surveillance systems,
     according to people familiar with the deal.

     The U.S. has prohibited export of crime-control products to China (for
     instance, fingerprinting equipment) ever since Beijing's deadly 1989
     Tiananmen Square crackdown. But the U.S. restrictions don't prohibit
     sale of technologies such as cameras that can be used in many waysa**to
     tame, say, either traffic jams or democracy marches. This loophole
     troubles some critics. There is no indication that Cisco is selling
     products customized for crime control.
     More

         * Cisco Faces Lawsuits, Criticism Over Past China Activities

     Western companies' pursuit of sales in China underscores a fundamental
     question for businesses and policy makers alike: Should companies be
     held accountable if foreign governments use their products for political
     suppression?

     Cisco was brought in to the Chongqing project by Chinese security
     company Hikvision Digital Technology Co., the project's main contractor,
     Hikvision officials and others say. It is unclear whether Cisco's
     participation has been finalized, although one person familiar with the
     matter says it is close.

     Officials at Cisco, based in San Jose, Calif., declined to discuss its
     possible involvement in detail. A company spokesman stressed that Cisco
     "hasn't sold video cameras or video-surveillance solutions in any of our
     public infrastructure projects in China."

     The company has previously saida**including in a June blog post by
     Cisco's general counsel, Mark Chandlera**that the company strictly
     abides by the Tiananmen export controls and doesn't supply any gear to
     China that is "customized in any way" to facilitate repressive uses.

     View Full Image
     CISCO_jmp
     CISCO_jmp
     CISCO_jmp

     Cisco is the world's biggest maker of networking equipment, which
     includes routing and switching systems that send data between computers
     and connect systems to the Internet. The company has stirred controversy
     in the past for its China dealings.

     The Chongqing project is also attracting interest from other U.S.
     companies, including Alabama software maker Intergraph Corp.
     Hewlett-Packard Co. also expects to bid on part of the project,
     according to a senior H-P executive.

     The people familiar with the matter said H-P may be looking to supply
     servers or storage equipment for Peaceful Chongqing.

     Asked about concerns about political use of the system, Todd Bradley, an
     executive vice president who oversees H-P's China strategy, said in an
     interview last week in China, "We take them at their word as to the
     usage." He added, "It's not my job to really understand what they're
     going to use it for. Our job is to respond to the bid that they've
     made."
     Censorship Inc.

         * Mideast Uses Western Tools to Battle the Skype Rebellion 6/1/2011
         * Iran Vows to Unplug Internet 5/28/2011
         * U.S. Products Help Block Mideast Web 3/28/2011

     Another possible participant in the Chongqing project is Intergraph, a
     Huntsville, Ala., company that made a bid through Cisco to provide
     customized software for the effort, said Bob Scott, head of Intergraph's
     security group. It is unclear if the company, a unit of Sweden's Hexagon
     AB, will ultimately be hired.

     Although sale of surveillance technology to repressive nations is
     permissible, some critics have harsh words for companies that do so.
     "The business community is only hearing what it wants to hear and
     disregarding the rest," said Rep. Frank Wolf, a Virginia Republican who
     co-chairs the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, a nonpartisan rights
     group made up of members of Congress.

     Chongqing, a sprawling metropolis in southwestern China, is one of the
     most populous cities in the nation with an urban population of at least
     12 million. The hillside Yangtze River port, famous for spicy hot-pot
     and often covered in fog, was China's capital from 1938 to 1945. Today,
     it is being developed as a gateway to the country's western hinterland.

     Chongqing has gained prominence the past two years because of its
     Communist Party chief, Bo Xilai, a rising political star who has led a
     controversial crackdown on organized crime that some lawyers have
     criticized for what they say are violations of legal due process.

     View Full Image
     CISCO
     Getty Images

     Chongqing's party chief, Bo Xilai, led a controversial crime crackdown.
     CISCO
     CISCO

     Mr. Bo declined to comment. He is expected to become one of China's top
     leaders next year by being appointed to China's Politburo Standing
     Committee, the nation's top decision-making body.

     Chongqing's government has said it plans to invest more than $800
     million of its own in building the Peaceful Chongqing system. Another
     $1.6 billion is coming from other, unspecified sources, the city has
     said. Hikvision's president, Hu Yangzhong, said in an interview that
     government funds would go toward building the central surveillance
     network and installing a portion of the cameras, while more cameras
     would be installed by owners of residences, office buildings and
     othersa**all of which would be linked to the network.

     Video-surveillance systems can serve many purposes and are routinely
     used for benign purposes by cities world-wide to fight crime and ease
     traffic. Still, civil libertarians raise concerns including in the U.S.
     that the technology can invade privacy and is poorly regulated.

     Human-rights advocates say Chinese police have used surveillance footage
     to identify people in political protests. Jailed Chinese artist-activist
     Ai Weiwei, who was released last month, complained before he was
     apprehended on April 3 that police were using cameras to monitor him.

     Corinna-Barbara Francis, a researcher at Amnesty International, said
     surveillance footage has been used to identify and apprehend peaceful
     protesters in China, including in Xinjiang and Tibet. "In China there's
     ample evidence that they use" video surveillance "to crack down and then
     criminalize activity which should not be criminalized," Ms. Francis
     said.

     The Chongqing government declined to comment, as did China's Ministry of
     Public Security and the State Council Information Office. Chinese
     leaders have long argued that maintaining social stability and economic
     growth takes precedence over political rights.

     Hikvision's president, Mr. Hu, said he believes the project's goal is to
     cut crime, not target political dissidents. "China has a very serious
     public-security problem," he said in an interview last week. He blamed
     an epidemic of robbery and other crimes on the flood of poor migrants
     into China's cities and a growing wealth gap.

     Mr. Hu said Chongqing's new surveillance system will be tied in to an
     information network that Cisco is already building in the city, where
     Cisco has announced a high-profile alliance under a program it calls
     Smart+Connected Communitiesa**an initiative under which Cisco consults
     with governments around the world to use technology to tackle civic
     problems such as transportation, healthcare and education.

     According to the Chongqing government's website, Cisco Chief Executive
     John Chambers told the city's mayor in a meeting last year that he hoped
     the Smart+Connected project could create a "model in Chongqing which can
     be popularized in China."

     Executives at Western companies say they must weigh the possibility that
     technology could be misused against the business risks of missing out on
     a lucrative market. "We do have concerns," said Intergraph's Mr. Scott.
     "On the other hand, we want to do business there," he said, noting that
     the company's software is also used for environmental and other projects
     in China.

     "We're just the technology platform," he said, adding that it is the
     responsibility of the buyers "to meet and adhere to laws and policies"
     of their jurisdictions. Ultimately, Intergraph has "to manage the risk
     against the gain."

     In an April interview with the Journal, Bill Stuntz, general manager of
     Cisco's physical-security business, said Cisco gives careful
     consideration to how its products are used in China and doesn't want
     them to be used for repressive purposes. He declined to discuss specific
     projects in China but noted that sales of security equipment there have
     been expanding rapidly. He said Cisco is providing products that include
     networking equipment and servers along with support for some large
     video-surveillance systems, though not video cameras.

     China has become the fastest growing market for surveillance equipment,
     although it isn't yet the biggest, according to IMS Research, a U.K.
     firm that studies the market. The surveillance markets in the U.S. and
     Europe are growing at single-digit rates while surveillance-related
     revenue in China is growing at 23% a year. Surveillance-equipment sales
     alone, not including networking gear or software, totaled $1.7 billion
     last year.

     Chongqing's government says on its website that its current surveillance
     system is outdated, allowing police to directly tap into just 15,000 of
     the total 300,000 cameras. It wants the new system to be among the
     world's most advanced.

     Mr. Scott of Intergraph says Chongqing wants not only to increase camera
     count, but also to have video managed and delivered to dozens of police
     precincts and other organizations. The project presents challenges "that
     have not really been done anywhere else in the world," he said.

     Mr. Scott said his company spent three years developing software that
     enables multiple agencies to control cameras and also analyzes video
     feeds for unusual situations like fires or the formation of crowds.

     The number of surveillance cameras in Chinese cities including Chongqing
     appears to dwarf that of other cities around the world, though
     comparisons are tough because cities generally don't disclose their
     camera counts.

     A 2008 report by the state-run Xinhua news agency said Beijing had some
     280,000 cameras in its system. By comparison, privacy advocates in the
     U.S., including the American Civil Liberties Union, estimate Chicago has
     10,000 cameras. The New York Civil Liberties Union estimated in 2009
     that there were 8,000 cameras in New York.
     a**Kersten Zhang, Yoli Zhang, Jason Dean and Cari Tuna contributed to
     this article.

     Write to Loretta Chao at loretta.chao@wsj.com and Don Clark at
     don.clark@wsj.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 06:03:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2885185_re-eastasia-ct-fwd-os-china-csm-ct-cisco-poised-to-help.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>richmond@core.stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2886743</id>
    <title>FYSA LE Stuff (UNCLASSIFIED)
</title>
    <description>50</description>
    <date>2011-11-28 19:16:19</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2886743_fysa-le-stuff-unclassified-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>undisclosed-recipients:</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>JOIC.ELPASO@dps.texas.gov</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/137/137316_AGENT 2011 Retirement FAQ v6.pdf</path><size>565464</size><md5></md5><sha1>c1a5cb82a210b3c8004f80cbacdea66643efee9f</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/137/137317_Drugs of Abuse 0104.pdf</path><size>4362660</size><md5></md5><sha1>39e784a470de7234f5f8ca3cb1ec34b81deef6d0</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2887144</id>
    <title>FW: Drugs of Abuse (UNCLASSIFIED)
</title>
    <description>64</description>
    <date>2011-11-29 16:23:27</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2887144_fw-drugs-of-abuse-unclassified-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>undisclosed-recipients:</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>JOIC.ELPASO@dps.texas.gov</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/137/137323_Drugs of Abuse 2011.pdf</path><size>6304258</size><md5></md5><sha1>cec0c15268573a868d707fb89c11f7eb17b8202a</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2887615</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged "Anonymous" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise "anonymous"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-10 19:47:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2887615_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2887843</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-11 13:59:34</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2887843_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2895013</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] (more) TrapWire on Kabul Hotel Attack
</title>
    <description>   Two points here:

   1. If they were in fact dressed in Afghan police clothing it brings us
   back to the question we addressed in the afghan weekly a few weeks ago
   where there is concern about militant infiltration into the Afghan
   security forces. This definitely makes things difficult as the Afghan
   security forces are handed over the control which brings us to Sean's
   point about the fact the operation primarily ended with the NATO
   helicopters shooting down 3 men on the roof and even then there was one
   guy just going around in the hotel and it took about 2 hours to contain
   him.

   2. Also if the militants were dressed in Afghan police attire it explains
   how they managed to bypass those multiple layers of defense.

   On Wednesday, 6/29/11 9:27 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

     Nothing to confirm or refute this initial claim. But new reporting
     suggests attackers arrived dressed as Afghan police. This is standard MO
     for Taliban...and many terror groups as you know. Only thing that
     everyone agrees on right now is that this thing was meticulously
     planned, and clearly well surveilled ahead of time. This hotel has
     multiple layers of defense -- including armed guards -- and still the
     bad guys got in. We don't have a single hotel in this country with even
     10% of the security the Intercontinental had. When they decide to start
     targeting hotels here, it'll shooting fish in a barrel.

      

      

     Stormed in force out of a vehicle after one perp detonated a vest at the
     gate  (Mike, think this remains accurate?)

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-06-29 16:46:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2895013_re-alpha-more-trapwire-on-kabul-hotel-attack-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>hoor.jangda@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2897611</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111
</title>
    <description>   this dude really gives the impression that Moscow calls the shots in Kiev

   so basically, Med gets pissed b/c Timo is blowing Putin and not him, so he
   whines to Putin and says drop the B and get behind Yanu like me. Putin
   says fine, Yanu gets excited and oversteps his boundaries, and now Putin
   is like fix this shit Med and Med is like okay, but we dont know what Med
   is actually gonna do to slap Yanu around

   so what's the couterargument to this? Does Russia really have this much
   influence over the situation?  this is something we need to address in
   ukraine reassessment

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marc Lanthemann" &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

   CODE: UA111
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Kiev
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch.
   But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps
   this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to
   begin with.

    

   You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in
   power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew
   Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to
   solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be
   Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most
   easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got
   her in trouble and arrested.

    

   But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no
   respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev
   made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a
   deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if
   Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being
   the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU,
   military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension
   it had been pushing for.

    

   So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009,
   the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing
   to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of
   demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally.

    

   Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev
   to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing
   against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever
   will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-09-14 20:55:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2897611_re-alpha-insight-ukraine-moscow-kiev-spat-ua111-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2898324</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Mercenary
   Contract hit

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Hoor Jangda &lt;hoor.jangda@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:25:36 -0500 (CDT)
   To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
   height.

   On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

     Was the shooter a Libyan?

     On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:26:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2898324_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2906110</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] [OS] CHINA/CSM - Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in
 fraud probe
</title>
    <description>   Trapwire is software that integrates your security video hardware.

   On 7/5/11 1:22 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

     I agree with Alibaba and had flagged that too.  I didn't see the mention
     of trapwire in the story on Cisco.  Maybe I missed it.  Yes, keep me
     posted on any questions and I'll see what my contact can dig up.

     On 7/4/11 11:18 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       This is also a pretty good CSM topic.  some college kids running a
       scam through Alibaba (chinese ebay), took in a good amount of money. 

       If we had some good 'redism' related incidents, maybe I could write on
       that, but we'd need some very concise points to make. 

       Let me know what you guys think of this and the surveillance camera
       topic.

       Jen, I assume that Trapwire is a competitor to Cisco, but I'm not
       sure.  I don't know if trapwire makes the actual cameras or just does
       the analysis.   I won't have real questions till morning. 

       On 7/2/11 11:00 AM, Kevin Stech wrote:

         Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in fraud probe

         02 July 2011 - 08H10 

         http://www.france24.com/en/20110702-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-fraud-probe

          

         AFP - Police have arrested 36 people in southeast China following an
         investigation into fraud on e-commerce site Alibaba.com and other
         websites that duped buyers out of more than $6 million.

          

         Alizila.com, Alibaba's corporate news website, reported earlier this
         week the suspects were detained in Fujian province's Putian city in
         April. John Spelich, the firm's spokesman, confirmed the report to
         AFP on Saturday.

          

         The people arrested allegedly operated a criminal gang that used
         fake IDs to open more than 100 "Gold Supplier" accounts on
         Alibaba.com. This designation is given to those certified as highly
         trusted suppliers by the firm.

          

         This allowed the suspects to pose as legitimate companies selling to
         overseas businesses that source goods through Alibaba.com. Police
         said the alleged scammers also used other international trading
         websites.

          

         Alibaba.com, based in the eastern city of Hangzhou, has grown into
         one of China's largest Internet companies by matching mainland
         manufacturers and wholesalers with buyers around the world.

          

         But its reputation took a hit in February when the firm announced
         the resignation of chief executive David Wei and head of operations
         Elvis Lee after fraud was uncovered on the site.

          

         Wei and Lee were not involved in the scams but resigned because they
         took responsibility for "systemic breakdowns" that allowed the fraud
         to happen, Alibaba said at the time.

          

         But according to the Alizila report, the fraud was "sometimes
         abetted by Alibaba.com employees." But Spelich said Saturday none of
         the 36 arrested worked at the company.

          

         He added the number of fraud complaints received by the website in
         June was down 70 percent from February after Alibaba toughened
         procedures and other security measures.

          

         The report said Alibaba had refunded $1.9 million to those who lost
         their money to the alleged scammers.

         Click here to find out more!

          

         Kevin Stech

         Director of Research | STRATFOR

         kevin.stech@stratfor.com

         +1 (512) 744-4086

          

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 13:35:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2906110_re-ct-os-china-csm-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-in.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2909064</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   We don't know

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:12:04 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   Was the shooter a Libyan?

   On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:13:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2909064_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2915509</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
	CODE
</title>
    <description>   Agree
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: scott stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:59:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;; Korena Zucha&lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Anya Alfano&lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   I'll bet cash they are connected to the Austin guys busted for the DNC
   plot plus some of the Austin Earth First jabronis. 
   From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 11:51:44 -0600
   To: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Anya Alfano &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;, Alpha List
   &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Have we seen Deep Green Resistance carry-out acts of violence in the
   past? 

   On 11/16/2011 6:38 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not "radical" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the "Phoenix Commune" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as "stupid, crazy motherfuckers", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, "Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-18 21:17:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2915509_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2917676</id>
    <title>Follow-up
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-08-30 16:12:44</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2917676_follow-up-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>shea.morenz@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>dedwards@heidrick.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>psmith@heidrick.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>rtiminsky@heidrick.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/137/137777_JS - Stratcap CIO.doc</path><size>81920</size><md5></md5><sha1>a00898be70adb2f30f14b11cad2efd56e2bed504</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/137/137778_CL - Stratfor CIO.doc</path><size>218112</size><md5></md5><sha1>408a0e9cd5bc977d6f6dd82c65e9cfdf2f63ee9d</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2917714</id>
    <title>FW: Stratfor - Execution versions of documents
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-08-02 21:05:30</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2917714_fw-stratfor-execution-versions-of-documents-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sf@feldhauslaw.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>shea.morenz@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>BHerzog@willkie.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>MSilver@willkie.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/121/121440_1 Amendment to Contribution and Subscription Agreement.pdf</path><size>301034</size><md5></md5><sha1>d50a14b19c6f171a171b8c39b5cc44aac9a2e5b2</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/121/121441_8 Stratfor_ Re.pdf</path><size>258977</size><md5></md5><sha1>cc7d9a72d999651e96cff37710ff70cfda023811</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/121/121442_20 Morenz - Stratfor - Services Agreement.pdf</path><size>814144</size><md5></md5><sha1>c4d5707f7c1a3b48f126d93b760efec873e4b2ce</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/121/121444_9 Stratfor_ Re.pdf</path><size>150792</size><md5></md5><sha1>40be2c9a5f998efe353b71d624a29b7af6b0ace4</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/121/121446_15 16 Morenz - Stratfor - Incentive Unit Agreement.pdf</path><size>115602</size><md5></md5><sha1>7c894f0ebdfb7ecffd579e69a85b11b9b00f7765</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/121/121447_14 Morenz - Stratfor - Stratfor Enterprises LLC Agreement.pdf</path><size>656922</size><md5></md5><sha1>74417c37218ec168626a781e96cd05c27cb2a1eb</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/121/121448_11 Stratfor_ R.pdf</path><size>122768</size><md5></md5><sha1>b7409fb9312fc0b661be3027c9f01c351fa80b12</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/121/121449_10 Stratfor_ R.pdf</path><size>145637</size><md5></md5><sha1>902790f5df3350dceb7a7b103a3881d46ea312e2</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/121/121450_2 General Conveyance Assignment Contribution and Assumption Agreement.pdf</path><size>142595</size><md5></md5><sha1>1d83123aa86f0bc74f255fbf8082ffc49cdb7c53</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/121/121452_7 Stratfor_ Re.pdf</path><size>262925</size><md5></md5><sha1>9a5e9dbc02fa1b91677d6b746991f4de9c1c4101</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/137/137783_30 31 Resolutions of SM Stratfor Partners, LLC.pdf</path><size>24914</size><md5></md5><sha1>af723ff58a5fa33472f9804d50d7958c9a3f03ff</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/137/137784_19 Stratcap Management Company Agreement.pdf</path><size>1061684</size><md5></md5><sha1>7190ae924ac2863707b872bfa5e980cffd7872dd</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2919047</id>
    <title>G3/S3* - IRAN/US/ISRAEL/SYRIA - Iran officials accuses USA,	Israel
	of interfering in Syria
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-09-13 09:40:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2919047_g3-s3-iran-us-israel-syria-iran-officials-accuses-usa-israel.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2920964</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
 CODE
</title>
    <description>   It might sound strange, but some of the most radical deep ecology people
   actually believe that there are too many people on the earth and that
   radical steps must be taken to reduce the population and save the earth.
    This strain of deep ecology is a clear reflection of the way the movement
   was heavily influenced by people like Martin Heidegger who were also
   committed to Nazism. Yes, Nazis were radical environmentalists.....
   From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 23:08:31 -0600
   To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Jesus I spent a couple of hours researching these guys - weird is an
   understatement. Apparently they met yesterday a couple of blocks away from
   my house to consolidate their leadership, go through basic indoctrination
   and plan more events. As far as I can tell, the Austin chapter is not
   nearly as radical as the central Lierre Keith DGR whose website is a
   treasure trove of incitment to passive resistance, blowing up energy
   infra, basic counter intel and legal guidance.

   Their ideology seems to be a mix of hardcore environmentalism, anarchism,
   radical feminism and the general notion that we need to go back living
   sustainably like the american indians by blowing up every pipeline and
   cell tower on the planet. Unlike the central DGR, Austin DGR doesn't seem
   to have defined targets and goals (their meeting yesterday was a
   brainstorming session on what radical environmentalism means in Austin).

   just a few nice quotes from their central website:

   The task of an activist is not to navigate systems of oppressive power
   with as much personal integrity as possible; it is to dismantle those
   systems.

   What would we do if Nazis had invaded, and they were vacuuming the oceans,
   scalping native forests, damming every river, changing the climate, and
   putting carcinogens into every mother's breast milk, and into the flesh of
   your children, your lover, your mother, into your own flesh? How much
   worse would the damage have to get? Would you resist? If there existed a
   resistance movement, would you join it?

   On 11/16/11 7:42 PM, Victoria Allen wrote:

     WHOA.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 18:38:01 -0600
     To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Cc: Anya Alfano&lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
     CODE
     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not "radical" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the "Phoenix Commune" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as "stupid, crazy motherfuckers", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, "Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-17 14:01:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2920964_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2922144</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged "Anonymous" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise "anonymous"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-10 19:47:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2922144_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2926405</id>
    <title>FW: Stratcap International Organizational Chart (SA Ventures) -
 Attorney/Client Privileged Communication
</title>
    <description>43</description>
    <date>2011-12-05 23:37:05</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2926405_fw-stratcap-international-organizational-chart-sa-ventures.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>shea.morenz@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>hope.massey@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>stammwc@gmail.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bknippa@jw.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>jstephenson@jw.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>cmcdowell@jw.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/137/137921_rmlist.doc</path><size>66048</size><md5></md5><sha1>70e20cc8b9208475fdf3f8b3fec8884c78eece3d</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/137/137922_SovereignCyprusNames.doc</path><size>29184</size><md5></md5><sha1>af4e156867637680d80672d49bfc526ebc9777e9</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/137/137923_Stratcap Inter.VSD</path><size>65024</size><md5></md5><sha1>84e7be8b5d303dd7406143415be1f4b02fe30909</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/137/137924_image001.gif</path><size>1640</size><md5></md5><sha1>1e87c706e70bc1edabf889e71597718aad25e449</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/137/137925_Sovereign due diligence requirements 2.doc</path><size>37376</size><md5></md5><sha1>5eba0f5df5a716e03fe7e6c11d196f600f8cb352</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/137/137926_.pdf</path><size>86849</size><md5></md5><sha1>e661fa7047136e439c0bb3095d4cb20c58be0499</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/137/137927_.doc</path><size>61440</size><md5></md5><sha1>d602e194e6394bb75bcab1d0b60d86fdfb6a3f62</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/137/137928_Application Trust Cyprus.doc</path><size>99328</size><md5></md5><sha1>c395c4a467610176a258eb126c2014743d97e105</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2928884</id>
    <title>&lt;no subject&gt;
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-12-10 21:11:46</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2928884_-no-subject-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>shea.morenz@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>shea.morenz@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/138/138161_STRATCAP COMP.xlsx</path><size>65655</size><md5></md5><sha1>86d266a93ff97ec21beca3aa2a8a797a3f319097</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2941659</id>
    <title>S3 - INDIA/CT/GV- Death toll from derailed train in India now at 60
</title>
    <description>   The red please [chris]

   [this news also has the Assam blast story that caused train derailment the
   end. Bad sunday for Indian railways AR)

   Death toll from derailed train in India now at 60
   AP
   http://news.yahoo.com/death-toll-derailed-train-india-now-60-034936343.html

   LUCKNOW, India (AP) a** Officials say the death toll from a train
   derailment in northern India has risen to 60 as more bodies are being
   pulled out of the mangled coaches.

   The senior army official in charge of rescue operations at the accident
   site says volunteers and soldiers have pulled out 60 bodies from 12
   coaches of the Kalka Mail, which went off the tracks Sunday afternoon.

   Col. Amarjit Dhillon told the Associated Press on Monday that many more
   bodies were trapped under the twisted coaches and soldiers were using gas
   cutters to slice through the metal.

   Rescue workers working through the night rescued many of the more than 100
   injured in the accident near the town of Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh state.

   THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information.
   AP's earlier story is below.

   FATEHPUR, India (AP) a** Rescuers searched for survivors in the wreckage
   of a packed express train that derailed in northern India on Sunday
   afternoon, killing at least 31 people, while officials said a second train
   derailment hundreds of miles (kilometers) to the northeast appeared to
   have been caused by a remote-controlled bomb.

   Rescuers were working to reach the second derailment, which occurred late
   Sunday night in a rural area of Assam state, injuring at least 100. The
   two railway incidents did not appear to be related.

   In the first crash, the Kalka Mail train was on its way to Kalka, in the
   foothills of the Himalayas, from Howrah, a station near Kolkata in eastern
   India, when 12 coaches and the engine jumped the tracks at Malwan station,
   near the town of Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh state, senior railway official
   A.K. Jain said.

   The cause of the derailment was not immediately clear but it appeared that
   the driver applied the emergency brakes, Jain said.

   At least 31 people were killed and rescue workers pulled at least 100
   injured passengers out of the wreckage, said Brij Lal, a state police
   official.

   Hours later, the second train derailed in the northeastern state of Assam,
   injuring at least 100 people, said S.K. Roy, a local magistrate.

   Local police suspect that a remote control-triggered bomb caused four
   coaches of the Gauhati-Puri Express to be thrown off the tracks in the
   town of Rangiya, about 30 miles (50 kilometers) west of the state's
   capital, Gauhati, Roy said.

   S. Hajong, a local railways spokesman, said two of the four coaches
   plunged into a pond and casualties are feared.

   Roy did not blame any rebel group and no one has taken responsibility for
   the attack so far. More than 30 groups in northeastern India have been
   fighting for decades for independence or wide autonomy in the region,
   about 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) east of New Delhi.

   It was the third train accident in India in the last four days. A train
   hit a bus at an unmanned railway crossing last Thursday, killing 35
   people.

   In Fatehpur, the accident site was a pile of twisted metal. At least one
   coach flew above the roof of another ahead of it and was dangling
   precariously, television footage showed. Another coach was thrown away
   from the rest of the train.

   The toll was likely to rise as rescuers made their way through the coaches
   and used gas cutters to cut through the mangled metal, Lal said. Rescue
   efforts continued late into the night.

   "We're trying to cut into the coaches and rescue those still trapped
   inside," Lal said.

   A senior railway official, H.C. Joshi, told CNN-IBN news channel that
   rescuers were struggling to free at least five people pinned under the
   wreckage of one of the worst-damaged coaches.

   Medical personnel rushed to the area, about 75 miles (120 kilometers)
   southeast of Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh state.

   Army helicopters were ferrying the most seriously injured victims to
   hospitals and 30 army engineers had joined the rescue efforts, Lal said.

   TV stations showed local residents helping injured passengers away from
   the train, several in makeshift stretchers, and breaking the windows of
   coaches to help those trapped inside.

   Prime Minister Manmohan Singh expressed "deep sorrow and shock" at the
   loss of lives. The Railways Ministry announced compensation of 500,000
   rupees ($11,000) for the families of those killed in the accident.

   The number of passengers on board the Kalka Mail a** named for its past
   use in the postal service a** was not known. Express trains normally carry
   about 1,000 people and travel at speeds of 60-80 miles (100-130
   kilometers) per hour.

   India's railroad network is one of the largest in the world and carries
   about 14 million passengers a day. Accidents are common, with most blamed
   on poor maintenance and human error.

   --
   Animesh

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   Australia Mobile: 0423372241
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-11 06:52:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-17 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2941659_s3-india-ct-gv-death-toll-from-derailed-train-in-india-now.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2942294</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
	CODE
</title>
    <description>   Agree
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: scott stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:59:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;; Korena Zucha&lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Anya Alfano&lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   I'll bet cash they are connected to the Austin guys busted for the DNC
   plot plus some of the Austin Earth First jabronis. 
   From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 11:51:44 -0600
   To: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Anya Alfano &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;, Alpha List
   &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Have we seen Deep Green Resistance carry-out acts of violence in the
   past? 

   On 11/16/2011 6:38 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not "radical" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the "Phoenix Commune" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as "stupid, crazy motherfuckers", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, "Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-18 21:17:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2942294_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2943522</id>
    <title>Daily mail report for 2011-11-16
</title>
    <description>
Grand Totals
------------
messages

 306239   received
 367348   delivered
      0   forwarded
     66   deferred  (198  deferrals)
    924   bounced
     19   rejected (0%)
      0   reject warnings
      0   held
      0   discarded (0%)

   8829m  bytes received
  10111m  bytes delivered
   2656   senders
   1344   sending hosts/domains
   1795   recipients
    400   recipient hosts/domains


Per-Hour Traffic Summary
    time          received  delivered   deferred    bounced     rejected
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    0000-0100           0          0          0          0          0 
    0100-0200           0          0          0          0          0 
    0200-0300           0          0          0          0          0 
    0300-0400           0          0          0          0          0 
    0400-0500       10880      14662         10         24          0 
    0500-0600       16179      20848          3         52          2 
    0600-0700       21808      29428         13        112          7 
    0700-0800       30464      36613         13         40          0 
    0800-0900       25530      30404          3         42          0 
    0900-1000       30222      35089          4         51          0 
    1000-1100       24198      28823         47         52          0 
    1100-1200       20277      26465         54         64          0 
    1200-1300       23740      26493          3         38          0 
    1300-1400       25439      27859          6         55          0 
    1400-1500       22669      25407          4         40          1 
    1500-1600       16736      19312          3         40          0 
    1600-1700       14525      16257          6        118          0 
    1700-1800        4669       5247          5         41          0 
    1800-1900        3352       3827          5         44          1 
    1900-2000        2491       2844          4         12          0 
    2000-2100        2707       3348          4         22          2 
    2100-2200        2857       3380          5         21          6 
    2200-2300        3935       4784          4         28          0 
    2300-2400        3561       6258          2         28          0 

Host/Domain Summary: Message Delivery (top 50)
 sent cnt  bytes   defers   avg dly max dly host/domain
 -------- -------  -------  ------- ------- -----------
 364165     9972m     198    27.5 s  120.4 h  stratfor.com
   1038    45040k       0    37.6 s   15.7 m  core.stratfor.com
    205     7140k       0     0.9 s   20.0 s  queue.stratfor.com
    170    11945k       0    19.5 s   10.6 m  gmail.com
    156     1821k       0     1.0 s    1.2 m  alerts.bounces.google.com
    138     3371k       0    22.7 s   15.6 m  keyframepolicy.com
     96   489810        0     6.5 s   48.0 s  nov.com
     58     1646k       0    38.0 s   10.4 m  att.blackberry.net
     52     1561k       0     1.1 m   15.2 m  milagrogroup.com
     43      999k       0    17.8 s    3.2 m  verizon.net
     28     5146k       0    56.3 s   10.8 m  feldhauslaw.com
     26   406318        0    40.4 s   10.6 m  colinchapman.com
     26   372628        0    56.4 s    9.6 m  yahoo.com
     24   238292        0     2.8 s    5.8 s  deloitte.com
     22   161260        0     1.6 s   17.0 s  googlegroups.com
     21     1301k       0    15.4 s    3.1 m  aol.com
     20   507246        0     1.9 s    8.2 s  roriesparkman.com
     20   111953        0     2.3 s   29.0 s  dhl-usa.com
     18   361821        0     0.7 s    3.6 s  response.stratfor.com
     18   144825        0     2.2 s    6.3 s  huntoil.com
     18   130802        0     3.0 s   26.0 s  hotmail.com
     17    92729        0     4.9 s    1.3 m  dhl.com
     14     8166k       0     2.7 s    8.9 s  hornfischerlit.com
     14   389577        0    32.5 s    4.5 m  cammacklaw.com
     14    23349        0     1.9 s   13.0 s  ecb.europa.eu
     12   260733        0     6.0 s   41.0 s  amd.com
     12   208024        0     0.1 s    0.2 s  erinmolet.info
     12    79867        0     0.2 s    0.2 s  runefarm.com
     10      541k       0     7.1 s   28.0 s  abc.net.au
     10   413752        0     8.5 s    1.0 m  ft.com
     10   128526        0     3.3 s   19.0 s  thedaily.com
     10   128075        0     0.4 s    2.0 s  handsonwater.com
     10   124477        0     0.3 s    0.6 s  itwebtraining.com
     10    90217        0    28.7 s    4.2 m  goldsmithandco.com
      9   160351        0     0.3 s    0.7 s  response.whatcounts.com
      8     8083k       0    36.5 s    2.2 m  comcast.net
      8     1557k       0     1.6 s    4.4 s  iiit.org
      8      833k       0     2.4 m   12.2 m  westlake.com
      8   407108        0     7.4 s   20.0 s  northforty.org
      8   128159        0     4.2 s   14.0 s  chron.com
      8   123883        0     4.4 s   24.0 s  ecb.int
      8   113908        0     8.0 m   15.9 m  turner.com
      8    29186        0     5.2 s   23.0 s  nacha.org
      8    27193        0     7.6 s   51.0 s  mac.com
      8    26874        0     0.6 s    1.8 s  dell.com
      8    21582        0    22.0 s    2.5 m  trapwire.com
      7   307100        0     0.4 s    1.0 s  econdecoction.info
      7   305783        0     0.3 s    0.4 s  marketlegacy.info
      7   304514        0    46.2 s    2.7 m  coolmixture.info
      7    32700        0     0.3 s    0.6 s  usps.com

Host/Domain Summary: Messages Received (top 50)
 msg cnt   bytes   host/domain
 -------- -------  -----------
 295957     8498m  stratfor.com
   2629    70971k  queue.stratfor.com
    447     4257k  alerts.bounces.google.com
    416    10591k  srs.bis6.us.blackberry.com
    310    10940k  gmail.com
    205     4520k  localhost.localdomain
    154     2308k  response.stratfor.com
    111     2291k  yahoo.com
     84     5638k  in.constantcontact.com
     63      631k  handsonwater.com
     57     3402k  hotmail.com
     54   184692   163.com
     50    19093k  googlegroups.com
     49      728k  response.whatcounts.com
     49   301417   core.stratfor.com
     48     6141k  aol.com
     42    12378k  milagrogroup.com
     42      939k  lists.iisd.ca
     42   309077   cotweet.com
     42   241552   youtube.bounces.google.com
     40   168623   runefarm.com
     38    54025   www2.stratfor.com
     36     1345k  bounce.linkedin.com
     36      522k  erinmolet.info
     34   385840   wsjemail.com
     32   458189   koreaweb.ws
     32   323603   itwebtraining.com
     32   109568   126.com
     32    60587   ymail.com
     31      841k  feldhauslaw.com
     30   261155   junctioncrosssuppliers.com
     30   246414   stamlin-palffy.com
     30   226273   linkmaxtechnologies.com
     29   109871   vaadshatte.com
     28     2003k  pbx.stratfor.com
     28     1007k  returns.groups.yahoo.com
     28   449031   eusnetworks.com
     26    22393k  dps.texas.gov
     26     2440k  lists.pdx.edu
     26     1053k  econdecoction.info
     26     1049k  marketlegacy.info
     26     1044k  coolmixture.info
     24   202548   dell.com
     24   150948   hornfischerlit.com
     24   100337   disasterconference2011.com
     22    86405   gtapplo.com
     22    80761   crobia.com
     20     5236k  dhl-usa.com
     20     1821k  watchthe4400online.com
     20   226816   yahoo.com.ph

top 50 Senders by message count
-------------------------------
 142414   os-bounces@stratfor.com
  65342   analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
  22754   alerts-bounces@stratfor.com
   9590   ct-bounces@stratfor.com
   7623   eurasia-bounces@stratfor.com
   6541   alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   6259   mesa-bounces@stratfor.com
   5970   eastasia-bounces@stratfor.com
   5410   latam-bounces@stratfor.com
   3094   econ-bounces@stratfor.com
   2629   bounce@queue.stratfor.com
   2122   stratforaustin-bounces@stratfor.com
   2084   translations-bounces@stratfor.com
   1793   responses-bounces@stratfor.com
   1385   africa-bounces@stratfor.com
    961   it@stratfor.com
    862   tactical-bounces@stratfor.com
    808   service@stratfor.com
    714   military-bounces@stratfor.com
    573   gfriedman@stratfor.com
    496   portfolio-bounces@stratfor.com
    395   mexico-bounces@stratfor.com
    367   from=&lt;&gt;
    331   michael.wilson@stratfor.com
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    309   ben.preisler@stratfor.com
    306   global-bounces@stratfor.com
    274   noreply@stratfor.com
    258   eastasiadigest-bounces@stratfor.com
    248   social-bounces@stratfor.com
    238   burton@stratfor.com
    198   anya.alfano@stratfor.com
    194   yaroslav.primachenko@stratfor.com
    184   africadigest-bounces@stratfor.com
    160   john.blasing@stratfor.com
    154   ebounces@response.stratfor.com
    148   marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com
    142   anthony.sung@stratfor.com
    138   jenna.colley@stratfor.com
    128   lobbycam@stratfor.com
    120   antonio.caracciolo@stratfor.com
    110   basima.sadeq@stratfor.com
    108   hope.massey@stratfor.com
    102   kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com
     99   kuykendall@stratfor.com
     98   sean.noonan@stratfor.com
     96   stewart@stratfor.com
     95   clint.richards@stratfor.com
     94   cole.altom@stratfor.com
     92   eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com

top 50 Recipients by message count
----------------------------------
   5489   lena.bell@stratfor.com
   5332   bayless.parsley@stratfor.com
   5182   michael.wilson@stratfor.com
   5160   chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   5134   ben.preisler@stratfor.com
   5106   allison.fedirka@stratfor.com
   5100   clint.richards@stratfor.com
   5035   gfriedman@stratfor.com
   5009   goodrich@stratfor.com
   4976   matthew.powers@stratfor.com
   4954   marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com
   4804   yaroslav.primachenko@stratfor.com
   4758   john.blasing@stratfor.com
   4742   anya.alfano@stratfor.com
   4736   colby.martin@stratfor.com
   4669   jacob.shapiro@stratfor.com
   4668   tim.french@stratfor.com
   4561   abe.selig@stratfor.com
   4511   sean.noonan@stratfor.com
   4496   ben.west@stratfor.com
   4491   bhalla@stratfor.com
   4484   ashley.harrison@stratfor.com
   4475   madolyn.mertz@stratfor.com
   4468   marko.primorac@stratfor.com
   4420   brad.foster@stratfor.com
   4360   tristan.reed@stratfor.com
   4348   siree.allers@stratfor.com
   4340   hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
   4338   colibasanu@stratfor.com
   4324   adelaide.schwartz@stratfor.com
   4282   frank.boudra@stratfor.com
   4276   jenna.colley@stratfor.com
   4218   zucha@stratfor.com
   4201   santos@stratfor.com
   4166   basima.sadeq@stratfor.com
   4163   kevin.stech@stratfor.com
   4086   arif.ahmadov@stratfor.com
   4078   ryan.abbey@stratfor.com
   3862   melissa.taylor@stratfor.com
   3802   william.hobart@stratfor.com
   3773   chapman@stratfor.com
   3650   bonnie.neel@stratfor.com
   3640   rebecca.keller@stratfor.com
   3598   renato.whitaker@stratfor.com
   3554   hughes@stratfor.com
   3460   paulo.gregoire@stratfor.com
   3446   matt.mawhinney@stratfor.com
   3405   hooper@stratfor.com
   3334   victoria.allen@stratfor.com
   3300   jose.mora@stratfor.com

top 50 Senders by message size
------------------------------
   2258m  os-bounces@stratfor.com
   1927m  analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
   1202m  latam-bounces@stratfor.com
 516568k  ct-bounces@stratfor.com
 459427k  econ-bounces@stratfor.com
 418483k  eastasia-bounces@stratfor.com
 335376k  alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
 283462k  military-bounces@stratfor.com
 220523k  alerts-bounces@stratfor.com
 137255k  eurasia-bounces@stratfor.com
 112421k  mesa-bounces@stratfor.com
  77354k  multimedia-bounces@stratfor.com
  70971k  bounce@queue.stratfor.com
  67689k  stratforaustin-bounces@stratfor.com
  52026k  burton@stratfor.com
  40344k  cole.altom@stratfor.com
  28975k  it@stratfor.com
  27697k  portfolio-bounces@stratfor.com
  22372k  JOIC.ELPASO@dps.texas.gov
  21175k  brian.genchur@stratfor.com
  20892k  gfriedman@stratfor.com
  20231k  sean.noonan@stratfor.com
  15935k  africa-bounces@stratfor.com
  12685k  antonio.caracciolo@stratfor.com
  12584k  service@stratfor.com
  12526k  translations-bounces@stratfor.com
  12378k  marks@milagrogroup.com
  11806k  lobbycam@stratfor.com
  11211k  kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com
  10367k  andrew.damon@stratfor.com
   9834k  233558938299@dysgo.org
   9757k  eastasiadigest-bounces@stratfor.com
   9741k  global-bounces@stratfor.com
   9217k  chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   9009k  grant.perry@stratfor.com
   8956k  kuykendall@stratfor.com
   8729k  from=&lt;&gt;
   8082k  clint.richards@stratfor.com
   8053k  responses-bounces@stratfor.com
   7750k  social-bounces@stratfor.com
   6505k  wright@stratfor.com
   6403k  megan.headley@stratfor.com
   6386k  anya.alfano@stratfor.com
   6153k  leticia.pursel@stratfor.com
   6081k  michael.wilson@stratfor.com
   5869k  hope.massey@stratfor.com
   5636k  oconnor@stratfor.com
   5477k  tactical-bounces@stratfor.com
   5244k  colby.martin@stratfor.com
   5223k  zucha@stratfor.com

top 50 Recipients by message size
---------------------------------
 170181k  jacob.shapiro@stratfor.com
 165476k  abe.selig@stratfor.com
 160478k  tim.french@stratfor.com
 158359k  zucha@stratfor.com
 156371k  gfriedman@stratfor.com
 154131k  madolyn.mertz@stratfor.com
 152312k  brad.foster@stratfor.com
 150656k  lena.bell@stratfor.com
 143748k  allison.fedirka@stratfor.com
 143725k  bayless.parsley@stratfor.com
 142004k  chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 141807k  michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 141182k  ben.preisler@stratfor.com
 140303k  matthew.powers@stratfor.com
 139984k  colby.martin@stratfor.com
 139793k  clint.richards@stratfor.com
 139680k  colibasanu@stratfor.com
 138605k  kevin.stech@stratfor.com
 135486k  goodrich@stratfor.com
 131956k  marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com
 131522k  hooper@stratfor.com
 131033k  jenna.colley@stratfor.com
 125868k  victoria.allen@stratfor.com
 124012k  melissa.taylor@stratfor.com
 119815k  anya.alfano@stratfor.com
 119266k  bhalla@stratfor.com
 113752k  rebecca.keller@stratfor.com
 111316k  matt.mawhinney@stratfor.com
 109737k  renato.whitaker@stratfor.com
 106262k  tristan.reed@stratfor.com
 105099k  mike.marchio@stratfor.com
 104403k  adelaide.schwartz@stratfor.com
 104351k  ashley.harrison@stratfor.com
 103925k  hughes@stratfor.com
 102563k  santos@stratfor.com
 100834k  jose.mora@stratfor.com
 100096k  yaroslav.primachenko@stratfor.com
  99898k  john.blasing@stratfor.com
  98494k  paulo.gregoire@stratfor.com
  95407k  bonnie.neel@stratfor.com
  95217k  fisher@stratfor.com
  95042k  sean.noonan@stratfor.com
  94325k  william.hobart@stratfor.com
  94007k  ryan.bridges@stratfor.com
  93932k  marko.primorac@stratfor.com
  92181k  kendra.vessels@stratfor.com
  91472k  rbaker@stratfor.com
  91269k  cole.altom@stratfor.com
  89776k  jaclyn.blumenfeld@stratfor.com
  86730k  frank.boudra@stratfor.com

Messages with no size data
--------------------------
 5F98E8A529E5  trent.geerdes@stratfor.com

message deferral detail
-----------------------
  lmtp (total: 196)
        81   4.2.2 Over quota (in reply to end of DATA command
        78   4.0.0 Temporary message delivery failure try again (in rep...
        37   conversation with core.stratfor.com[10.7.0.8] timed out while ...
  smtp (total: 2)
         2   10025

message bounce detail (by relay)
--------------------------------
  none (total: 924)
       924   core.stratfor.com

message reject detail
---------------------
  RCPT
    Helo command rejected: Invalid name (total: 2)
           1   85.26.241.5
           1   94.54.248.214
    Relay access denied (total: 17)
          16   64.134.125.164
           1   so-net.net.tw

message reject warning detail: none

message hold detail: none

message discard detail: none

smtp delivery failures: none

Warnings
--------
  smtpd (total: 185)
        12   201.29.221.56: hostname 20129221056.user.veloxzone.com.br verif...
        12   173.13.207.65: hostname mass65.dcaccess.net verification failed...
        11   70.114.147.90: hostname cpe-70-114-147-90.austin.res.rr.com ver...
         9   network_biopair_interop: error reading 5 bytes from the network...
         5   SASL authentication failure: Can only find author (no password)
         4   184.22.194.151: hostname mailsv-151.unfictitiousnessunspoilable...
         4   74.119.66.165: hostname 74.119.66.static.dwdtechllc.com verific...
         4   85.17.24.236: hostname hosted-by.leaseweb.com verification fail...
         4   74.61.68.91: hostname 74-61-68-91.hou.clearwire-wmx.net verific...
         3   66.185.21.147: hostname static.66.185.21.147.cyberlynk.net veri...
         3   184.22.194.157: hostname mailsv-157.unfictitiousnessunspoilable...
         3   unknown[199.117.151.34]: SASL PLAIN authentication failed: bad ...
         2   64.79.100.101: hostname 64.79.100.101.rdns.continuumdatacenters...
         2   89.19.6.132: hostname 89-19-6-132.cizgibilgisayar.com verificat...
         2   184.82.73.142: hostname 184-82-73-142.static.hostnoc.net verifi...
         2   65-113-118-56.dia.static.qwest.net[65.113.118.56]: SASL PLAIN a...
         2   173.212.251.59: hostname 173-212-251-59.static.hostnoc.net veri...
         2   201.79.3.92: hostname 20179003092.user.veloxzone.com.br verific...
         1   64.79.100.102: hostname 64.79.100.102.rdns.continuumdatacenters...
         1   195.140.180.102: hostname farmamedic.NIR-Telecom.ru verificatio...
         1   113.160.110.103: address not listed for hostname static.vdc.vn
         1   123.26.144.108: address not listed for hostname localhost
         1   181.28.102.111: hostname 111-102-28-181.fibertel.com.ar verific...
         1   31.130.251.112: hostname MT-31-130-251-112.mtrend.ru verificati...
         1   190.149.100.113: hostname 113.100.149.190.dynamic.intelnet.net....
         1   190.221.123.114: hostname host114.190-221-123.telmex.net.ar ver...
         1   62.140.254.114: hostname 62-140-254-114.fiord.ru verification f...
         1   210.2.135.115: hostname static-host210-2-135-115.link.net.pk ve...
         1   190.79.161.115: address not listed for hostname 190-79-161-115....
         1   125.164.253.118: hostname 118.subnet125-164-253.speedy.telkom.n...
         1   83.149.8.120: hostname gprs-client-83.149.8.120.misp.ru verific...
         1   125.162.50.121: hostname 121.subnet125-162-50.speedy.telkom.net...
         1   122.180.140.122: hostname NSG-Corporate-122.140.180.122.airtel....
         1   41.251.251.123: hostname static41-123-251-250-251.static41-16.i...
         1   77.245.1.125: hostname IP77-245-1-125.zaindata.jo verification ...
         1   187.124.29.125: hostname 18712429125.telemar.net.br verificatio...
         1   125.161.162.133: hostname 133.subnet125-161-162.speedy.telkom.n...
         1   184.82.73.133: hostname 184-82-73-133.static.hostnoc.net verifi...
         1   113.160.147.13: address not listed for hostname static.vdc.vn
         1   201.234.66.13: hostname 201.234.66-13.static.impsat.com.co veri...
         1   74.117.208.140: hostname clear140.markedmazda.com verification ...
         1   62.49.125.147: hostname no-dns-yet.demon.co.uk verification fai...
         1   201.240.234.157: hostname client-201.240.234.157.speedy.net.pe ...
         1   85.234.31.157: hostname 85.234.31.157.info-link.ru verification...
         1   202.134.146.15: address not listed for hostname 202.134.146.15....
         1   178.120.9.161: hostname mm-161-9-120-178.dynamic.pppoe.mgts.by ...
         1   201.37.209.166: hostname c925d1a6.virtua.com.br verification fa...
         1   184.154.60.169: hostname s10.111.clients.serverdeals.org verifi...
         1   184.154.60.170: hostname s10.111.clients.serverdeals.org verifi...
         1   190.156.229.173: hostname Static-IP-cr190156229173.cable.net.co...
         1   84.52.73.174: hostname 84-52-73-174-nat-pool-rad.westcall.net v...
         1   190.0.100.175: hostname 190-0-100-175.sanluisctv.com.ar verific...
         1   190.186.81.176: hostname dynamic-ip-adsl-190.186.81.176.cotas.c...
         1   182.68.91.176: hostname ABTS-North-Dynamic-176.91.68.182.airtel...
         1   122.168.44.177: hostname ABTS-MP-dynamic-177.44.168.122.airtelb...
         1   189.34.85.178: hostname bd2255b2.virtua.com.br verification fai...
         1   201.210.126.184: hostname 201-210-126-184.genericrev.cantv.net ...
         1   113.176.156.189: address not listed for hostname localhost
         1   85.21.103.18: hostname 85-21-103-18.static.corbina.ru verificat...
         1   190.172.79.18: hostname 190-172-79-18.speedy.com.ar verificatio...
         1   125.163.167.192: hostname 192.subnet125-163-167.speedy.telkom.n...
         1   188.26.110.195: hostname 188-26-110-195.rdsnet.ro verification ...
         1   187.2.247.198: hostname bb02f7c6.virtua.com.br verification fai...
         1   190.131.113.19: hostname host-190-131-113-19.ecutel.net.ec veri...
         1   110.139.93.200: hostname 200.subnet110-139-93.speedy.telkom.net...
         1   115.186.123.203: hostname wtl.worldcall.net.pk verification fai...
         1   190.191.85.207: hostname 207-85-191-190.cab.prima.net.ar verifi...
         1   200.58.193.208: address not listed for hostname adsl200-58-193-...
         1   94.159.189.20: hostname 94-159-189-20.orange.net.il verificatio...
         1   190.71.76.215: address not listed for hostname adsl190-71-76-21...
         1   118.97.209.218: hostname 218.subnet118-97-209.static.astinet.te...
         1   200.127.50.218: hostname 200-127-50-218.cab.prima.net.ar verifi...
         1   110.136.110.219: hostname 219.subnet110-136-110.speedy.telkom.n...
         1   118.96.216.219: hostname 219.static.118-96-216.astinet.telkom.n...
         1   unknown[10.10.10.219]: SASL PLAIN authentication failed: authen...
         1   186.120.32.223: hostname adsl-32-223.tricom.net verification fa...
         1   77.229.192.224: hostname static-224-192-229-77.ipcom.comunitel....
         1   187.75.18.226: hostname 187-75-18-226.dsl.telesp.net.br verific...
         1   205.196.177.228: hostname phonoscope-205-196-177-228.phonoscope...
         1   209.135.134.229: hostname static-209.135.134.229.primary.net ve...
         1   110.164.189.22: hostname mx-ll-110.164.189-22.static.3bb.co.th ...
         1   190.36.199.230: address not listed for hostname 190-36-199-230....
         1   178.151.88.230: hostname 230.88.151.178.triolan.net verificatio...
         1   178.222.34.238: hostname 178-222-34-238.dynamic.isp.telekom.rs ...
         1   31.40.123.240: hostname U240-R11.miass.multinex.ru verification...
         1   81.174.67.245: hostname 245-67.174.81.serverdedicati.seflow.net...
         1   222.252.157.249: address not listed for hostname localhost
         1   113.172.183.250: address not listed for hostname localhost
         1   190.141.190.253: hostname cpe-944452c5a4b1.cpe.cableonda.net ve...
         1   166.205.12.254: hostname mobile-166-205-012-254.mycingular.net ...
         1   222.161.73.25: hostname 25.73.161.222.adsl-pool.jlccptt.net.cn ...
         1   109.110.89.39: hostname 39-89-110-109.host.sevstar.net verifica...
         1   200.223.113.3: hostname srv1.barreirasnet.com.br verification f...
         1   83.246.225.44: hostname dynamic-ip-83-246-225-44.fttx.retail.in...
         1   190.96.129.45: hostname 190-96-129-45.telebucaramanga.net.co ve...
         1   125.164.42.49: hostname 49.subnet125-164-42.speedy.telkom.net.i...
         1   123.127.164.4: address not listed for hostname mail.camds.org
         1   115.111.126.50: hostname 115.111.126.50.static-delhi.vsnl.net.i...
         1   122.161.218.50: hostname ABTS-North-Dynamic-050.218.161.122.air...
         1   113.167.44.51: address not listed for hostname localhost
         1   83.149.21.52: hostname gprs-user-52.21.149.83.in-addr.arpa veri...
         1   173.212.251.54: hostname 173-212-251-54.static.hostnoc.net veri...
         1   200.80.52.54: hostname 54.52.80.200.static.host.ifxnw.com.ar ve...
         1   77.60.178.57: hostname static.kpn.net verification failed: Name...
         1   113.172.136.63: address not listed for hostname localhost
         1   108.121.62.63: hostname 108-121-62-63.pools.spcsdns.net verific...
         1   201.240.176.71: hostname client-201.240.176.71.speedy.net.pe ve...
         1   212.145.57.81: hostname static-81-57-145-212.ipcom.comunitel.ne...
         1   121.246.67.91: hostname 121.246.67.91.static-cochin.vsnl.net.in...
         1   186.191.191.96: hostname host96.186-191-191.telmex.net.ar verif...
         1   190.147.152.9: hostname Static-IP-cr1901471529.cable.net.co ver...
         1   Illegal address syntax from unknown[58.67.131.232] in MAIL comm...
         1   network_biopair_interop: error reading 11 bytes from the networ...
         1   network_biopair_interop: error reading 3801 bytes from the netw...
         1   numeric hostname: 190.208.86.135
         1   SASL authentication failure: Password verification failed
         1   valid_hostname: misplaced delimiter: .

Fatal Errors: none

Panics: none

Master daemon messages: none
</description>
    <date>2011-11-17 06:31:21</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2943522_daily-mail-report-for-2011-11-16-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>admin@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>admin@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2949744</id>
    <title>Chinese investment in Brazil
</title>
    <description>3</description>
    <date>2011-08-04 16:20:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-02 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2949744_chinese-investment-in-brazil-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>shea.morenz@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/11/11324_Chinese_Investments_in_Brazil_Research.pdf</path><size>3211828</size><md5></md5><sha1>4445b4d1e37c96057831ee7f46a61774029a53c6</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2962394</id>
    <title>Contract Template
</title>
    <description>   This is an example of one of our monitoring contracts. Anything that has
   to do with agreements, especially the legal terms and conditions usually
   has to be reviewed by Feldhaus. You can use this as a basis for a letter
   though, tweaking the format and language to fit what you need it to. The
   details or the scope of work is really the nuts and bolts and the most
   important part of any agreement.

   Also, see if Rob has a copy of the TrapWire partnership agreement you can
   use as a format to copy. Let me know if you want me to review anything.
</description>
    <date>2011-06-28 18:06:46</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2962394_contract-template-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kendra.vessels@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/138/138920_Strategic Monitoring SOW.docx</path><size>64428</size><md5></md5><sha1>5025d7526c71b339e0347c77ad04aae8ef8e382e</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2966127</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
   height.

   On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

     Was the shooter a Libyan?

     On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:25:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2966127_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>hoor.jangda@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2972881</id>
    <title>Fwd: FLASH/PLEASE INVOICE-Hunt Oil Contract Renewal
</title>
    <description>   And one to grow on!

   Sent from my iPad
   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: Kuykendall Don &lt;kuykendall@stratfor.com&gt;, Darryl O'Connor
     &lt;darryl.oconnor@stratfor.com&gt;, Rob Bassetti &lt;rob.bassetti@stratfor.com&gt;,
     'Fernando Jaimes' &lt;fernando.jaimes@stratfor.com&gt;, 'Holly Sparkman'
     &lt;holly.sparkman@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: FLASH/PLEASE INVOICE-Hunt Oil Contract Renewal

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        color:blue;
        text-decoration:underline;}
     a:visited, span.MsoHyperlinkFollowed
        {mso-style-priority:99;
        color:purple;
        text-decoration:underline;}
     span.EmailStyle17
        {mso-style-type:personal-compose;
        font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
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     --&gt;
        Client: Hunt Oil
              Project: Renewal of Strategic Monitoring services for Iraq,
              Mexico, Peru and Yemen.
              Note that their current contract does not expire until Sept.
              15, however they wish to receive the invoice and process the
              payment now.
              Services Time frame: Sept. 16, 2011-Sept. 15, 2012
              Payment Terms: They are going with Option 2 (up front
              payment). "STRATFOR will invoice CLIENT for the entire sum
              (less a 5 percent discount or $42,393.75) upon execution of
              the Agreement. Invoice is due upon receipt."
     &lt;!--
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        {font-family:"Cambria Math";
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        mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast;
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     --&gt;
        FEES
                Details
                Pricing
                Option
                        1A*Intelligence Monitoring and Monthly Forecasts
                (quarterly
                        payments)
                $44,625.00
                        (or four payments of $11,156.25)
                Option
                          2A*Intelligence Monitoring and Monthly Forecasts
                (up-front
                          payment)
                $44,625.00
                          (less a 5 percent discount or $42,393.75)
              Billing contact:
            Debby
                Efurd
                Business Security Analyst - Global Security
                Hunt Consolidated Inc. | 1900 North Akard Street | Dallas,
                TX 75201-2300
                T: 214.978.8602 | F: 214.855.6779 | E: defurd@huntoil.com
                Please let me know if you have any questions.
                Korena

     &lt;20110728145032.pdf&gt;
</description>
    <date>2011-07-29 00:21:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2972881_fwd-flash-please-invoice-hunt-oil-contract-renewal-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sf@feldhauslaw.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>shea.morenz@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2975424</id>
    <title>RE: Stratfor/Stratcap Structure Matters
</title>
    <description>That is very clear, thank you!

--
Shea Morenz
Managing Partner
STRATFOR
221 W. 6th Street
Suite 400
Austin, Texas 78701

O: 512-583-7721 ¦ M: 713.410.9719 ¦ F: 512.744.4105

 www.STRATFOR.com


-----Original Message-----
From: Feldhaus, Stephen [mailto:sf@feldhauslaw.com]
Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2011 10:58 AM
To: Knippa, Brad; Shea B. Morenz
Cc: Mr. Don R. Kuykendall; Craig Stamm; McDowell, Cale; Mr. George
Friedman
Subject: RE: Stratfor/Stratcap Structure Matters

Shea,

Brad and Cale and I had a very thorough and good discussion about all of
the outstanding issues.  There is no suggestion on anyone's part that the
August 1 transaction was not properly documented, or that it was not
properly approved by the shareholders of Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

Shareholders of Strategic Forecasting, Inc., holding more than 80% of the
voting shares of Strategic Forecasting, Inc., approved ALL of the
transactions that occurred effective April 25 and August 1.  That approval
included the formation of Stratcap Management Company, LLC, the
shareholding therein by Stratfor Holdings, LLC, and by Stratfor
Enterprises, LLC, as well as the Services Agreement being entered into by
Stratfor Enterprises, LLC, and Stratcap Management Company, LLC.
Furthermore, each of the signatories of the shareholders consent of
Strategic Forecsting, Inc., had the final documents in hand for every
transaction, including the specific ones referenced above, when they
signed the shareholder consent.

I am reciting the foregoing to make it clear that the purpose of our
exercise is not to correct an error that occurred at the time of the
original closing, which I take it from your comments and email yesterday
seems to be the impression that you had.

Having said the foregoing, I and we are delighted to work with Brad and
Cale to provide as broad a shareholder approval as you may want for any
aspect of our relationship, including to obtain the approval of most of
the rest of the shareholders of strategic Forecasting, Inc. to the
original transaction.

Brad, Cale, and I are in agreement that the Consolidated relationship
should be blessed by as many of the shareholders of Strategic Forecasting,
Inc., as possible, to document their approval of that transactions, to
document the intention that Strategic Forecasting, Inc., and Stratfor
Enterprises, LLC, will respectively participate in these types of
transactions in the future with an equity participation no less than their
participation in Stratcap, and to obtain shareholder approval for George
and Don's participation in Consolidated.

Don't hesitate to let me know if you have any questions.

Best,

Steve

CIRCULAR 230 NOTICE
In accordance with Treasury Regulations, please note that any tax advice
given herein (and in any attachments) is not intended or written to be
used, and cannot be used by any taxpayer, for the purpose of (i) avoiding
tax penalties or (ii) promoting, marketing or recommending to another
party any transaction or matter addressed herein.


This e-mail and any attachments may contain confidential information
belonging to the sender which is legally privileged. The information is
intended only for the use of the individual or entity named above. If you
are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any
disclosure, copying, distribution, or the taking of any action regarding
the contents of this e-mailed information is strictly prohibited. If you
have received this transmission in error, please immediately notify us by
return e-mail, then delete the original message.

-----Original Message-----
From: Feldhaus, Stephen
Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2011 9:22 AM
To: 'Knippa, Brad'; Shea B. Morenz
Cc: Mr. Don R. Kuykendall; Craig Stamm; McDowell, Cale; Mr. George
Friedman
Subject: RE: Stratfor/Stratcap Structure Matters

Perfect.


CIRCULAR 230 NOTICE
In accordance with Treasury Regulations, please note that any tax advice
given herein (and in any attachments) is not intended or written to be
used, and cannot be used by any taxpayer, for the purpose of (i) avoiding
tax penalties or (ii) promoting, marketing or recommending to another
party any transaction or matter addressed herein.


This e-mail and any attachments may contain confidential information
belonging to the sender which is legally privileged. The information is
intended only for the use of the individual or entity named above. If you
are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any
disclosure, copying, distribution, or the taking of any action regarding
the contents of this e-mailed information is strictly prohibited. If you
have received this transmission in error, please immediately notify us by
return e-mail, then delete the original message.

-----Original Message-----
From: Knippa, Brad [mailto:bknippa@jw.com]
Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2011 9:17 AM
To: Feldhaus, Stephen; Shea B. Morenz
Cc: Mr. Don R. Kuykendall; Craig Stamm; McDowell, Cale; Mr. George
Friedman
Subject: RE: Stratfor/Stratcap Structure Matters

I'd be pleased to visit.  I'm stepping into a meeting but will try to
reach you on your cell at 9:30.  Thanks.

Bradley S. Knippa, JD, CPA
Jackson Walker L.L.P.
100 Congress Avenue, Suite 1100
Austin, Texas 78701
Direct: (512) 236-2284
Mobile: (512) 431-8336
Facsimile: (512) 391-2126
E-mail: bknippa@jw.com
Web: www.jw.com

This message and any attachments contain privileged and confidential
attorney client information and/or attorney work product exclusively for
intended recipients. Please do not forward or distribute to anyone else.
If you have received this e-mail in error, please call (512) 236-2284 to
report the error then delete this message from your system.  The
statements contained herein are not intended to and do not constitute an
opinion as to any tax or other matter. They are not intended or written to
be used, and may not be relied upon, by you or any other person for the
purpose of avoiding penalties that may be imposed under any Federal tax
law or otherwise.


-----Original Message-----
From: Feldhaus, Stephen [mailto:sf@feldhauslaw.com]
Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2011 8:01 AM
To: Shea B. Morenz; Feldhaus, Stephen
Cc: Knippa, Brad; Mr. Don R. Kuykendall; Craig Stamm; McDowell, Cale; Mr.
George Friedman
Subject: Re: Stratfor/Stratcap Structure Matters

Brad,

Let's chat this morning to see what's behind Shea's impression that there
is something wrong with the Stockholders Consent I sent around last
evening. My cell is 202-531-2211.

Best,

Steve
-----Original Message-----
From: Shea Morenz &lt;shea.morenz@stratfor.com&gt;
Date: Tue, 13 Dec 2011 06:47:45
To: Feldhaus, Stephen&lt;sf@feldhauslaw.com&gt;
Cc: Knippa, Brad&lt;bknippa@jw.com&gt;; Don Kuykendall&lt;kuykendall@stratfor.com&gt;;
Craig Stamm&lt;stammwc@gmail.com&gt;; McDowell, Cale&lt;cmcdowell@jw.com&gt;; George
Friedman&lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
Subject: Re: Stratfor/Stratcap Structure Matters

Simply trying to get all on the same page... Glad we are on this point as
I was not under that impression. Anything misinterpreted in the other
points?
Thx

--
Shea Morenz
STRATFOR
Managing Partner
office: 512.583.7721
Cell: 713.410.9719
shea.morenz@stratfor.com

(Sent from my iPhone)

On Dec 12, 2011, at 11:33 PM, "Feldhaus, Stephen" &lt;sf@feldhauslaw.com&gt;
wrote:

&gt; Shea,
&gt;
&gt; It is late but I notice a sense of urgency and perhaps even more in your
highlighted section and the comment following below.
&gt;
&gt; Please note that your attorney, Bruce Herzog, approved the Strategic
Forecasting, Inc. shareholder consent that was executed as part of the
closing.  Please also note that this consent, which is attached, is, as I
told you today, a very broad consent, and is more than adequate to
constitute the consent of the signing shareholders of Strategic
Forecasting, Inc, for the Stratcap investment and Services Agreement.  I
am glad to provide a broader consent as you indicate you wish, and to
provide copies of all the documents to the other shareholders as you
indicate you wish, and to attempt to obtain the approval of as many of the
other shareholders as we can, but your implication that you are surprised
at what happened is equally surprising to me, since Bruce was fully aware
of everything that we did, and was fine with it and with the language of
the attached consent (which he specifically approved) at the time of our
August 1 closing.
&gt;
&gt; I am hopeful that there has been a miscommunication somewhere along the
line on your side, because the implication of your email that Stratfor has
done something improper that could imperil your ability to recruit
candidates is alarming and I truly do not believe is correct in any
respect.
&gt;
&gt; Again, I do hope that a miscommunication has occurred.  I felt that Brad
and I understood what each was saying.  I do not concur with the
implication of your email that Stratfor has done anything improper, and I
do know that Bruce certainly did not believe that we did anything
improper, because he approved the language of the consent.
&gt;
&gt; My plane leaves at 11:30 in the morning.  I am available before then or
after my arrival at 3:30 your time to discuss any of this as fully and
completely as you or Brad would like.  I am also more than willing to take
any action that you or Brad feel is needed to provide Stratcap with the
best offering memorandum possible.  But I do not accept that Stratfor has
failed to do something properly that imperils the Stratcap venture in any
way.
&gt;
&gt; Best,
&gt;
&gt; Steve
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; CIRCULAR 230 NOTICE
&gt; In accordance with Treasury Regulations, please note that any tax advice
given herein (and in any attachments) is not intended or written to be
used, and cannot be used by any taxpayer, for the purpose of (i) avoiding
tax penalties or (ii) promoting, marketing or recommending to another
party any transaction or matter addressed herein.
&gt;
&gt; 
&gt; This e-mail and any attachments may contain confidential information
belonging to the sender which is legally privileged. The information is
intended only for the use of the individual or entity named above. If you
are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any
disclosure, copying, distribution, or the taking of any action regarding
the contents of this e-mailed information is strictly prohibited. If you
have received this transmission in error, please immediately notify us by
return e-mail, then delete the original message.
&gt;
&gt; From: Shea Morenz [mailto:shea.morenz@stratfor.com]
&gt; Sent: Monday, December 12, 2011 10:06 PM
&gt; To: Knippa, Brad; Don Kuykendall
&gt; Cc: Feldhaus, Stephen; 'Craig Stamm'; McDowell, Cale; George Friedman
&gt; Subject: Re: Stratfor/Stratcap Structure Matters
&gt;
&gt; Steve, pls confirm / correct the key follow-up points from today as I
certain I have missed something:
&gt;
&gt; 1. Squeeze-out merger/Subchapter S election of Strategic Forecasting,
&gt; Inc. ("Stratfor Inc.") -we will exchange the preferred Inc shares for
&gt; a note, which requires the approval of Don and Steve alone -we will
&gt; get all 65 shareholders to approve the transaction
&gt;
&gt; 2. Stratfor Enterprises, LLC ("Enterprises") transaction -we will
&gt; ensure that all non-consenting shareholders get adequate disclosure of
&gt; the transactions under DGCL § 228(e)
&gt;
&gt; 3. Stratcap Management, LLC ("Stratcap") / Stratcap International
&gt; Consolidated Inc. ("Stratcap Consolidated")
&gt;
&gt; "Second, the scope of the consent granted by the shareholders of
Stratfor Inc. appears to have been limited to SM/Stratfor's investment in
Stratfor, the formation of Enterprises, and the contribution to
Enterprises of the assets of Stratfor Inc., and did not include the
formation of Stratcap, the grant of interests in Stratcap to each of Shea
and George, or the terms of the Services Agreement between Enterprises and
Stratcap (collectively, the "Stratcap Matters").  Given the dynamics here,
Steve, Cale and I all agreed that the proper course of action is to seek
the approval of the shareholders of Stratfor Inc. to those transactions,
as well as the formation of Stratcap International Consolidated Inc.
("Stratcap Consolidated") and the participation of George, Don and Shea in
that entity."
&gt;
&gt; I can't believe that STRATCAP has never even been granted consent from
the majority of the shareholders? Steve, you suggested otherwise today,
which is correct? Obviously, I am very concerned about recruiting
candidates to move to Austin, who will review all documents, without
shareholder approval of this transaction. This cannot slow our progress!
&gt;
&gt; Thus, we are planning to simultaneously execute all these items
immediately alongside of the S-Corp transaction, which means that we are
including all 65 shareholders in each case so we can properly approve the
ENTERPRISES and STRATCAP transactions executed in August in order to
finalize all related issues by January 31.
&gt;
&gt; Thanks.
&gt;
&gt; --
&gt; Shea Morenz
&gt; Managing Partner
&gt; STRATFOR
&gt; 221 West 6th Street
&gt; Suite 400
&gt; Austin, Texas 78701
&gt;
&gt; shea.morenz@stratfor.com
&gt; Phone: 512.583.7721
&gt; Cell: 713.410.9719
&gt;
&gt; From: Brad Knippa &lt;bknippa@jw.com&lt;mailto:bknippa@jw.com&gt;&gt;
&gt; Date: Sat, 10 Dec 2011 08:33:36 -0600
&gt; To: Brad Knippa &lt;bknippa@jw.com&lt;mailto:bknippa@jw.com&gt;&gt;, Shea Morenz
&gt; &lt;shea.morenz@stratfor.com&lt;mailto:shea.morenz@stratfor.com&gt;&gt;, Don
&gt; Kuykendall &lt;kuykendall@stratfor.com&lt;mailto:kuykendall@stratfor.com&gt;&gt;
&gt; Cc: Stephen Feldhaus &lt;sf@feldhauslaw.com&lt;mailto:sf@feldhauslaw.com&gt;&gt;,
&gt; 'Craig Stamm' &lt;stammwc@gmail.com&lt;mailto:stammwc@gmail.com&gt;&gt;,
&gt; "McDowell, Cale" &lt;cmcdowell@jw.com&lt;mailto:cmcdowell@jw.com&gt;&gt;
&gt; Subject: RE: Stratfor/Stratcap Structure Matters
&gt;
&gt; To clarify, the last sentence should state "Our presumption . . ."
&gt; Pardon my suspect proof-reading.  BK
&gt;
&gt; _____________________________________________
&gt; From:    Knippa, Brad
&gt; Sent:   Saturday, December 10, 2011 8:28 AM
&gt; To:     Shea Morenz; 'Don Kuykendall'
&gt; Cc:     Stephen Feldhaus; 'Craig Stamm'; McDowell, Cale
&gt; Subject:        Stratfor/Stratcap Structure Matters
&gt;
&gt; Shea and Don,
&gt;
&gt; As we discussed on Thursday, Cale and I had a good, constructive
conversation with Steve Feldhaus regarding some of the fiduciary issues
that we are analyzing in connection with the formation of Stratcap
International Consolidated, LLC ("Stratcap Consolidated").
&gt;
&gt; In brief summary, its our understanding that we have arrived on the
following conclusions/recommendations:
&gt;
&gt; A.  Upon the completion of the notice and consent process relating to
the squeeze-out merger/Subchapter S election of Strategic Forecasting,
Inc. ("Stratfor Inc."), the remaining shareholders of Stratfor Inc. should
be provided an update regarding the progress by Stratcap Management, LLC
("Stratcap") regarding fund and investment matters, and concurrently be
provided a comprehensive disclosure document which informs them the terms
upon which Stratcap was formed, will be owned, and will operate before
finalizing the ownership of Stratcap Consolidated.
&gt;
&gt; B.  In the meantime, we can proceed with the formation of the new
Cypriot entity, the execution of the note evidencing Stratcap's obligation
to repay amounts loaned by Shea's entity SM/Stratfor Partners, LLC
("SM/Stratfor"), and the engagement of Sipho, but all under a slightly
revised interim structure (explained below).
&gt;
&gt; C.  We need to confirm that the capitalization of each of Stratcap and
Stratfor Inc. reflects the agreement of the parties, in light of certain
conflicting information we noted in the organizational chart and
underlying documentation JW was provided.
&gt;
&gt; The following discussion expands on the points above:
&gt;
&gt; 1. Prior Shareholder Approvals
&gt;
&gt; From our conversation with Steve and review of documents, it appears
that a majority of the shareholders of Stratfor Inc. received copies of
the Contribution &amp; Subscription Agreement (as amended) and the company
agreement of Stratfor Enterprises, LLC ("Enterprises")in connection with
the action by written consent to approve the recent restructuring
transaction.  Assuming that these matters were approved in accordance with
the governing documents of Stratfor Inc. (which we have not yet reviewed),
the restructuring transaction was properly effected and the consenting
shareholders have received proper disclosure of, and have approved,
SM/Stratfor's investment in Stratfor, the formation of Enterprises, and
the contribution to Enterprises of the assets of Stratfor Inc.
&gt;
&gt; This leaves open two items for consideration:
&gt;
&gt; First, the above-referenced consent was not unanimous, which means that
there is a small group of non-consenting shareholders who would not be
estopped from complaining about the reorganization of Stratfor and the
terms of SM/Stratfor's investment. We should consider whether these
non-consenting shareholders received adequate disclosure of the
transactions under DGCL § 228(e).  These concerns are, however, somewhat
mitigated by the fact that the non-consenting shareholders' ownership
interests are small enough that any damages would be limited (and 16 of
them will "go away" when the total number of shareholders is reduced from
65 to 49 in the merger transaction).
&gt;
&gt; Second, the scope of the consent granted by the shareholders of Stratfor
Inc. appears to have been limited to SM/Stratfor's investment in Stratfor,
the formation of Enterprises, and the contribution to Enterprises of the
assets of Stratfor Inc., and did not include the formation of Stratcap,
the grant of interests in Stratcap to each of Shea and George, or the
terms of the Services Agreement between Enterprises and Stratcap
(collectively, the "Stratcap Matters").  Given the dynamics here, Steve,
Cale and I all agreed that the proper course of action is to seek the
approval of the shareholders of Stratfor Inc. to those transactions, as
well as the formation of Stratcap International Consolidated Inc.
("Stratcap Consolidated") and the participation of George, Don and Shea in
that entity.
&gt;
&gt; 2. Stratcap Consolidated
&gt;
&gt; Given the lack of approval of the Stratcap Matters, we cannot (as we
previously hoped) rely on the percentage interests granted to each of
Enterprises and Stratfor Holdings, LLC (resulting in a combined 22.5%
beneficial interest to the shareholders of Stratfor Inc.) as a model by
which to eliminate any damages suffered by those shareholders in
connection with the Stratcap Matters.  In other words, because the
capitalization of Stratcap has not been ratified by the shareholders of
Stratfor Inc., modeling the capitalization of future entities after
Stratcap affords no protection against claims of self-dealing, breach of
fiduciary duty, etc.  Accordingly, we would be well advised to hold off on
finalizing the formation of Stratcap Consolidated until we are able to
confirm approval of the Stratcap Matters from the shareholders of Stratfor
Inc.
&gt;
&gt; 3. Timing &amp; Interim Solution
&gt;
&gt; We understand that Stratfor Inc. is preparing to send materials to its
shareholders relating to a proposed squeeze-out merger and the election to
treat Stratfor Inc. as a Subchapter S corporation.  Once this has been
completed, Stratfor Inc. will be in a position to approach the remaining
shareholders to request that they approve the Stratcap Matters.  Steve
believes that we would be able to obtain close to 100% approval of the
Stratcap Matters, which would dramatically reduce the fiduciary duty risks
associated with the formation and operation of Stratcap and its related
entities.  These two consecutive approval processes may, however, take us
into January, which necessitates an interim solution.
&gt;
&gt; To that end, we propose to use Stratcap as a surrogate entity until we
are able to obtain shareholder approval of the formation of Stratcap
Consolidated (together with the other Stratcap Matters).  We should be
able to proceed with the formation of the Cypriot entity that was to be a
subsidiary of Stratcap Consolidated as a subsidiary of Stratcap instead.
Using Stratcap as a surrogate would also entail reworking the SM/Stratfor
promissory note to allow Shea's cash advances to go to Stratcap rather
than to Stratcap Consolidated. With regard to Sipho, his consulting
agreement could be set up to belong to the newly formed Cypriot entity
(which we will ultimately move under Stratcap Consolidated).
&gt;
&gt; Note that, though Sipho's consulting agreement provides for the
calculation of his "performance bonus" on the basis of 77.5% of
"distributed cash" (i.e., distributed cash after subtracting the 22.5%
beneficial interest of Stratfor Inc.), and, as noted above, this 22.5%
figure has been disendowed of its "magic" protective status, we see no
purely legal reason that the consulting agreement with Sipho (being an
arms-length transaction) cannot use this figure if it is acceptable to you
from a business perspective.  Of course, whatever terms you agree upon
with Sipho will benefit the owners of Stratcap, and (by extension)
Stratfor Inc., ratably, regardless of the percentage of distributed cash
you agree to make available to Sipho.  The proper percentage to use in
this context is a business question rather than a legal one.
&gt;
&gt; If these interim measures are acceptable, we should be able to move
forward with finalizing the Cypriot entity and the consulting agreement
with Sipho while working on the Stratfor Inc. shareholder approvals in
parallel.
&gt;
&gt; 4. Capitalization
&gt;
&gt; On a more perfunctory note, we need to confirm the capitalization of
Stratcap and Enterprises.  It appears that the percentages reflected on
the organizational chart that we received do exactly tie-out with the
percentages in the ownership documents we reviewed.  The difference are
not material, and they may simply result from the organizational chart's
of approximate percentages, but we want to be sure to nail-town the
precise calculations.
&gt;
&gt; See below for a summary of (i) the percentages reflected on the
organizational chart with respect to each entity, (ii) the number of units
assigned to each member in the respective company agreements, (iii) each
member's non-incentive ownership percentage, based on units held (per
company agreements), and (iv) each member's total ownership percentage
(incentive and non-incentive, assuming no forfeiture), based on units held
(per company agreements).
&gt;
&gt; Stratcap Management LLC
&gt;
&gt; (i)
&gt; Org. Chart
&gt;
&gt; (ii)
&gt; Company Agreement (Units)
&gt;
&gt; (iii)
&gt; Co. Agmt. Percentage (w/o incentive units)
&gt;
&gt; (iv)
&gt; Co. Agmt. Percentage (with incentive units)
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; Stratfor Holdings, LLC (Class A Units)
&gt;
&gt; 18%
&gt;
&gt; 180,000
&gt;
&gt; 20.00%
&gt;
&gt; 19.15%
&gt;
&gt; Stratfor Enterprises, LLC (Class A Units)
&gt;
&gt; 5%
&gt;
&gt; 45,000
&gt;
&gt; 5.00%
&gt;
&gt; 4.79%
&gt;
&gt; SM/Stratfor Partners, LLC (Class A Units)
&gt;
&gt; 72%
&gt;
&gt; 630,000
&gt;
&gt; 70.00%
&gt;
&gt; 67.02%
&gt;
&gt; SM/Stratfor Partners, LLC (Series 1 Incentive)
&gt;
&gt; --
&gt;
&gt; 20,000
&gt;
&gt; --
&gt;
&gt; 2.13%
&gt;
&gt; Shea Morenz (Series 2 Incentive)
&gt;
&gt; --
&gt;
&gt; 20,000
&gt;
&gt; --
&gt;
&gt; 2.13%
&gt;
&gt; George Freidman (Class A Units)
&gt;
&gt; 5%
&gt;
&gt; 45,000
&gt;
&gt; 5.00%
&gt;
&gt; 4.79%
&gt;
&gt; TOTAL:
&gt;
&gt; 100%
&gt;
&gt; 940,000
&gt;
&gt; 100.00%
&gt;
&gt; 100.00%
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; Stratfor Enterprises, LLC
&gt;
&gt; Org. Chart
&gt;
&gt; Company Agreement (Units)
&gt;
&gt; Co. Agmt. Percentage (w/o incentive units)
&gt;
&gt; Co. Agmt. Percentage (with incentive units)
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; Strategic Forecasting, Inc. (Class A Units)
&gt;
&gt; 90%
&gt;
&gt; 180,000
&gt;
&gt; 90.00%
&gt;
&gt; 81.82%
&gt;
&gt; SM/Stratfor Partners, LLC (Class A Units)
&gt;
&gt; 10%
&gt;
&gt; 20,000
&gt;
&gt; 10.00%
&gt;
&gt; 9.09%
&gt;
&gt; Shea Morenz (Incentive Units)
&gt;
&gt; --
&gt;
&gt; 20,000
&gt;
&gt; --
&gt;
&gt; 9.09%
&gt;
&gt; TOTAL
&gt;
&gt; 100%
&gt;
&gt; 220,000
&gt;
&gt; 100.00%
&gt;
&gt; 100.00%
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; Is are presumption that figures in column (ii) accurately reflect the
deal that was made with respect to Stratcap and Enterprises, and that the
organizational chart should be revised accordingly.  We'll go with this
assumption unless you inform us to the contrary.
&gt;
&gt; Steve, feel free to chime in with any additions and/or corrections.
&gt;
&gt; Thanks.
&gt;
&gt; BK
&gt;
&gt; Bradley S. Knippa, JD, CPA
&gt; Jackson Walker L.L.P.
&gt; 100 Congress Avenue, Suite 1100
&gt; Austin, Texas 78701
&gt; Direct: (512) 236-2284
&gt; Mobile: (512) 431-8336
&gt; Facsimile: (512) 391-2126
&gt; E-mail: bknippa@jw.com&lt;mailto:bknippa@jw.com&gt;
&gt; Web: www.jw.com
&gt;
&gt; This message and any attachments contain privileged and confidential
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&gt;
&gt;
&gt; &lt;27 stratfor - consent of the stockholders of strategic forecasting,
&gt; inc..pdf&gt;
</description>
    <date>2011-12-13 18:08:42</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2975424_re-stratfor-stratcap-structure-matters-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sf@feldhauslaw.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>stammwc@gmail.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bknippa@jw.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>cmcdowell@jw.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2985193</id>
    <title>UNITED STATES/AMERICAS-Government Replies To British PM's Falkland
	Statement in Tough Terms
</title>
    <description>   Government Replies To British PM's Falkland Statement in Tough Terms
   Report by Guido Braslavsky: "For London There is Full Stop on Malvinas:
   Tough Argentine Reply" - Clarin.com
   Thursday June 16, 2011 20:20:34 GMT
   In a statement released last night the Foreign Ministry said that it
   "deplores" the fact that the British government "claims for itself the
   authority to put an end to the history of the sovereignty dispute over the
   islands." It also accused London of showing its "ongoing contempt" and
   displaying "a lack of respect for international law" in relation to the UN
   mandate and the international community's appeals for the two nations to
   resume negotiations.

   Foreign Minister Hector Timerman used Twitter to ratchet up the dispute
   with Cameron, rejecting the expression "end of story" that US political
   scientist Francis Fukuyama had introduced in globalized discussions in the
   1990s. "On the Malvinas, I say to the prime minister that the end of the
   story is never a decision by one person, no matter how powerful that
   person may feel himself to be," tweeted the foreign minister.

   This new diplomatic exchange came a day after Tuesday's 29th anniversary
   of the end of the war, with the fall of Puerto Argentino (Port Stanley);
   the kelpers celebrate this date as "Liberation Day." After that Cameron
   addressed the British Parliament, where he again reiterated the United
   Kingdom's official stance on the Falklands issue: it refuses to negotiate
   sovereignty, unless the kelpers ask it to do so.

   "As long as the Falklands maintain their interest in remaining a British
   sovereign territory, they should continue to be a British sovereign
   territory. Period. End of story," Cameron declared forcefully, considering
   the issue closed.

   As he does every week, the Conservative Party prime minister went to the
   House of Commons to give his report. The Falklands issue arose during
   Question Time, when oral questions on issues that are not on the agenda
   may be asked. The issue came up when a Conservative Party member, Andrew
   Rosindell, asked Cameron to remind President Barack Obama at their next
   meeting that London will never accept any kind of negotiations over the
   South Atlantic archipelago. Rosindell's concern was prompted by the fact
   that last week the OAS had urged Argentina and the United Kingdom to meet
   to negotiate the Falklands issue "as soon as possible."

   This week Cristina Kirchner had reiterated this claim on two occasions.
   She first did so on Monday during UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon's visit
   to Buenos Aires, in whose presence she repeated her demand that the United
   Kingdom comply with the UN resolutions and criticized the "double
   standard" tha t the most powerful nations use in international relations.
   She returned to the issue on Tuesday when she was inaugurating the
   "Roberto Mario Fiorito" presidential heliport. Its name is a tribute to
   the only helicopter pilot who died in the 1982 war. At that ceremony the
   president also delivered his DNI (National Identity Document) to James
   Peck, who was born in Port Stanley in 1968 -- he is a fourth generation
   kelper and the son of a British veteran -- and who later chose to become
   an Argentine citizen.

   In May 2010 Cristina spoke with Cameron at the Latin America-European
   Union Summit in Madrid. In her speech there the president had again urged
   the United Kingdom to negotiate; London responded with its usual refusal,
   saying that it considers the islands an "overseas territory" that belongs
   to the United Kingdom.

   In the last few years bilateral relations have become more strained
   because of the British decision to authorize hydrocarbon e xplorations
   north of the i slands. Argentina responded to that with a decree issued in
   February 2010 that requires ships en route to the islands and that wish to
   cross the Argentine Sea or to anchor in Argentine ports to request
   authorization from the Argentine government. It also promulgated Law
   26.659, which penalizes firms conducting explorations on the Argentine
   continental shelf that do not obtain permission from the Argentine
   government.

   (In another report in Spanish on 16 June La Nacion adds: "The British
   prime minister has confirmed the islanders' right of self-determination.

   "This was almost an automatic and blunt response to the claims that
   Argentina had just reiterated to the United Nations and to the support it
   recently obtained from the OAS. Yesterday British Prime Minister David
   Cameron told the British Parliament that sovereignty of the Falklands 'is
   not negotiable' and he confirmed the islanders' rights of
   self-determination.

   "In so doing, the British government has buried the Casa Rosada's latest
   attempts to open sovereignty talks with London. Cameron, a member of the
   Conservative Party, appeared yesterday in the British Parliament and,
   among other matters, addressed the Falklands issue.

   "In response to a suggestion from Conservative Party MP Andrew Rosindell
   that in his upcoming meeting with US President Barack Obama, Cameron
   should tell him that Great Britain will never agree to negotiate the
   islands' sovereignty with Argentina, the prime minister spoke
   emphatically: 'As long as the Falklands maintain their interest in
   remaining a British sovereign territory, they should continue to be a
   British sovereign territory. Period. End of story.'

   "Rosindell's request came after last week the OAS, of which the United
   States is also a member, unanimously urged Argentina and Great Britain to
   meet 'as soon as possible' to negotiate in order to find a solution to the
   conflic t.

   "Cameron's words were also uttered during the same week in which President
   Cristina Kirchner met in Buenos Aires with UN Secretary General Ban
   Ki-moon, and reiterated to him the Argentine appeal for London to
   negotiate the islands' sovereignty with Buenos Aires and comply with the
   UN resolution that urges nations to meet to negotiate when situations of
   conflict arise.

   "Two days ago, when she inaugurated the Roberto Mario Fioriti presidential
   heliport, named in honor of the only helicopter pilot who died in the
   Falklands War -- he died as he going to the aid of a fishing boat -- the
   president declared: 'Claiming to have geographic dominion at a distance of
   over 14,000 kilometers is almost ridiculous.'

   'Arrogance'

   "Yesterday, seven hours after Cameron spoke, the government denounced the
   remarks by the British prime minister. A Foreign Ministry communique
   stated: 'Argentina deplores the fact that the Government of the United
   Kingdo m, in a lamentable act of arrogance, claims the authority to put an
   end to the story, referring to a sovereignty dispute whose existence has
   been recognized by the United Nations and that is still awaiting a
   resolution.'

   "The government commented that Great Britain is displaying its ongoing
   contempt for the reiterated mandate of the United Nations and for the
   multiple appeals from the international community urging Argentina and the
   United Kingdom to resume negotiations in order to arrive at a solution to
   the sovereignty dispute concerning the Malvinas.'

   "Meanwhile, from New York, the Argentine ambassador to the United Nations,
   Jorge Arguello, commented that 'the international community should
   carefully evaluate to what point it is appropriate for it to continue
   acknowledging permanent member status of the UN Security Council for
   countries that systematically ignore or violate the decisions of the
   General Assembly.'

   "Arguello also declared that 'the statements from Mr Cameron confirm that
   the United Kingdom will uphold its interests by fair means or foul. They
   are not willing to proceed in accordance with law, but seem determined to
   defend their de facto position that originated through the use of force in
   the 19th century.'

   "Cameron's words came a day after the government gave a DNI to James Peck,
   a native of the Falklands, and the son of a British veteran (who fought in
   the 1982 war). Peck has chosen to become an Argentine citizen.")

   (Description of Source: Buenos Aires Clarin.com in Spanish -- Online
   version of highest-circulation, tabloid-format daily owned by the Clarin
   media group; generally critical of government; URL: http://www.clarin.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   &lt; br&gt;
</description>
    <date>2011-06-17 12:30:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-16 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2985193_united-states-americas-government-replies-to-british-pm-s.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mailto:translations@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>translations@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>dialogbot@smtp.stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2985610</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
	CODE
</title>
    <description>   Agree
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: scott stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:59:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;; Korena Zucha&lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Anya Alfano&lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   I'll bet cash they are connected to the Austin guys busted for the DNC
   plot plus some of the Austin Earth First jabronis. 
   From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 11:51:44 -0600
   To: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Anya Alfano &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;, Alpha List
   &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Have we seen Deep Green Resistance carry-out acts of violence in the
   past? 

   On 11/16/2011 6:38 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not "radical" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the "Phoenix Commune" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as "stupid, crazy motherfuckers", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, "Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-18 21:17:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2985610_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2992087</id>
    <title>Fwd: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
</title>
    <description>   Ryan Sims
   Global Intelligence
   STRATFOR
   T: 512-744-4087
   F: 512-744-0570
   ryan.sims@stratfor.com
   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
     Date: June 16, 2011 1:04:08 PM CDT
     To: STRATFOR &lt;service@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: RE: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
     Kudos*a great explanation for those who don't understand or appreciate
     the efforts that go into a real intel op*as opposed to the Hollywood BS
     everyone seems to expect.
      
     I remind people all the time that we got the courier's name back in '03
     -- and thank goodness didn't take the typical "cuff 'em and drag him in"
     approach many had advocated. We stayed patient and threw real analytical
     support into this one. Took some time -- but the patient oriental
     approach usually pays bigger dividends.  M
      
     From: STRATFOR [mailto:mail@response.stratfor.com] 
     Sent: Thursday, June 16, 2011 11:45 AM
     To: Michael Maness
     Subject: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
      

View on Mobile Phone | Read the online version.                                  

      

     STRATFOR Weekly Intelligence Update                                      
     Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier: Special Edition of Above the        
     Tearline                                                                 
     The weekly Above the Tearline video series is part of our members-only   
     content. We hope you enjoy this exclusive chance to access it free.      
                                                                              
     [IMG]                                                                    
     Watch this exclusive edition of Above the Tearline                       
                                                                              
             Above the Tearline: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier          
                                                                              
                                                                              
                                                                              
     Vice President of Intelligence Fred Burton examines the sophisticated    
     surveillance operation that led to the raid on Osama bin Laden*s safe    
     house in Pakistan. Click here to view.                                   
     Save on annual memberships                                               
     Connect with usTwitterFacebookYoutubeSTRATFOR Mobile                     
     New to STRATFOR? Get these free intel reports emailed to you. If you did 
     not receive this report directly from us and would like more             
     geopolitical &amp; security related updates, join our free email list.       
                                                                              
     Sponsorship: Sponsors provide financial support in exchange for the      
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     STRATFOR retains full editorial control, giving no sponsor influence     
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     out more.                                                                

     To manage your e-mail preferences click here. 

     STRATFOR
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</description>
    <date>2011-06-16 20:08:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2992087_fwd-surveillance-of-bin-laden-s-courier-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>service@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>responses@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>2998875</id>
    <title>[MESA] India - Train Derailments?
</title>
    <description>   This might be a good trigger for reassessing Indian militancy -- would be
   especially interesting to see who did this one since it's much larger than
   we've seen recently.  No one has claimed responsibility yet and several
   groups have condemned the blasts.  Any other thoughts we have on who did
   it would be much appreciated.

   -------- Original Message --------

    Subject: S3 - INDIA/CT/GV- Death toll from derailed train in India now at 
             60                                                               
       Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2011 23:52:43 -0500 (CDT)                            
       From: Chris Farnham &lt;chris.farnham@stratfor.com&gt;                       
   Reply-To: analysts@stratfor.com                                            
         To: alerts@stratfor.com                                              

   The red please [chris]

   [this news also has the Assam blast story that caused train derailment the
   end. Bad sunday for Indian railways AR)

   Death toll from derailed train in India now at 60
   AP
   http://news.yahoo.com/death-toll-derailed-train-india-now-60-034936343.html

   LUCKNOW, India (AP) - Officials say the death toll from a train derailment
   in northern India has risen to 60 as more bodies are being pulled out of
   the mangled coaches.

   The senior army official in charge of rescue operations at the accident
   site says volunteers and soldiers have pulled out 60 bodies from 12
   coaches of the Kalka Mail, which went off the tracks Sunday afternoon.

   Col. Amarjit Dhillon told the Associated Press on Monday that many more
   bodies were trapped under the twisted coaches and soldiers were using gas
   cutters to slice through the metal.

   Rescue workers working through the night rescued many of the more than 100
   injured in the accident near the town of Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh state.

   THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information.
   AP's earlier story is below.

   FATEHPUR, India (AP) - Rescuers searched for survivors in the wreckage of
   a packed express train that derailed in northern India on Sunday
   afternoon, killing at least 31 people, while officials said a second train
   derailment hundreds of miles (kilometers) to the northeast appeared to
   have been caused by a remote-controlled bomb.

   Rescuers were working to reach the second derailment, which occurred late
   Sunday night in a rural area of Assam state, injuring at least 100. The
   two railway incidents did not appear to be related.

   In the first crash, the Kalka Mail train was on its way to Kalka, in the
   foothills of the Himalayas, from Howrah, a station near Kolkata in eastern
   India, when 12 coaches and the engine jumped the tracks at Malwan station,
   near the town of Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh state, senior railway official
   A.K. Jain said.

   The cause of the derailment was not immediately clear but it appeared that
   the driver applied the emergency brakes, Jain said.

   At least 31 people were killed and rescue workers pulled at least 100
   injured passengers out of the wreckage, said Brij Lal, a state police
   official.

   Hours later, the second train derailed in the northeastern state of Assam,
   injuring at least 100 people, said S.K. Roy, a local magistrate.

   Local police suspect that a remote control-triggered bomb caused four
   coaches of the Gauhati-Puri Express to be thrown off the tracks in the
   town of Rangiya, about 30 miles (50 kilometers) west of the state's
   capital, Gauhati, Roy said.

   S. Hajong, a local railways spokesman, said two of the four coaches
   plunged into a pond and casualties are feared.

   Roy did not blame any rebel group and no one has taken responsibility for
   the attack so far. More than 30 groups in northeastern India have been
   fighting for decades for independence or wide autonomy in the region,
   about 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) east of New Delhi.

   It was the third train accident in India in the last four days. A train
   hit a bus at an unmanned railway crossing last Thursday, killing 35
   people.

   In Fatehpur, the accident site was a pile of twisted metal. At least one
   coach flew above the roof of another ahead of it and was dangling
   precariously, television footage showed. Another coach was thrown away
   from the rest of the train.

   The toll was likely to rise as rescuers made their way through the coaches
   and used gas cutters to cut through the mangled metal, Lal said. Rescue
   efforts continued late into the night.

   "We're trying to cut into the coaches and rescue those still trapped
   inside," Lal said.

   A senior railway official, H.C. Joshi, told CNN-IBN news channel that
   rescuers were struggling to free at least five people pinned under the
   wreckage of one of the worst-damaged coaches.

   Medical personnel rushed to the area, about 75 miles (120 kilometers)
   southeast of Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh state.

   Army helicopters were ferrying the most seriously injured victims to
   hospitals and 30 army engineers had joined the rescue efforts, Lal said.

   TV stations showed local residents helping injured passengers away from
   the train, several in makeshift stretchers, and breaking the windows of
   coaches to help those trapped inside.

   Prime Minister Manmohan Singh expressed "deep sorrow and shock" at the
   loss of lives. The Railways Ministry announced compensation of 500,000
   rupees ($11,000) for the families of those killed in the accident.

   The number of passengers on board the Kalka Mail - named for its past use
   in the postal service - was not known. Express trains normally carry about
   1,000 people and travel at speeds of 60-80 miles (100-130 kilometers) per
   hour.

   India's railroad network is one of the largest in the world and carries
   about 14 million passengers a day. Accidents are common, with most blamed
   on poor maintenance and human error.

   --
   Animesh

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   Australia Mobile: 0423372241
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-11 14:29:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-17 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2998875_-mesa-india-train-derailments-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mesa@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:mesa@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3005275</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [CT] [OS] CHINA/CSM - Alibaba says China police
 arrest 36 in fraud probe
</title>
    <description>   I agree with Alibaba and had flagged that too.  I didn't see the mention
   of trapwire in the story on Cisco.  Maybe I missed it.  Yes, keep me
   posted on any questions and I'll see what my contact can dig up.

   On 7/4/11 11:18 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     This is also a pretty good CSM topic.  some college kids running a scam
     through Alibaba (chinese ebay), took in a good amount of money. 

     If we had some good 'redism' related incidents, maybe I could write on
     that, but we'd need some very concise points to make. 

     Let me know what you guys think of this and the surveillance camera
     topic.

     Jen, I assume that Trapwire is a competitor to Cisco, but I'm not sure. 
     I don't know if trapwire makes the actual cameras or just does the
     analysis.   I won't have real questions till morning. 

     On 7/2/11 11:00 AM, Kevin Stech wrote:

       Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in fraud probe

       02 July 2011 - 08H10 

       http://www.france24.com/en/20110702-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-fraud-probe

        

       AFP - Police have arrested 36 people in southeast China following an
       investigation into fraud on e-commerce site Alibaba.com and other
       websites that duped buyers out of more than $6 million.

        

       Alizila.com, Alibaba's corporate news website, reported earlier this
       week the suspects were detained in Fujian province's Putian city in
       April. John Spelich, the firm's spokesman, confirmed the report to AFP
       on Saturday.

        

       The people arrested allegedly operated a criminal gang that used fake
       IDs to open more than 100 "Gold Supplier" accounts on Alibaba.com.
       This designation is given to those certified as highly trusted
       suppliers by the firm.

        

       This allowed the suspects to pose as legitimate companies selling to
       overseas businesses that source goods through Alibaba.com. Police said
       the alleged scammers also used other international trading websites.

        

       Alibaba.com, based in the eastern city of Hangzhou, has grown into one
       of China's largest Internet companies by matching mainland
       manufacturers and wholesalers with buyers around the world.

        

       But its reputation took a hit in February when the firm announced the
       resignation of chief executive David Wei and head of operations Elvis
       Lee after fraud was uncovered on the site.

        

       Wei and Lee were not involved in the scams but resigned because they
       took responsibility for "systemic breakdowns" that allowed the fraud
       to happen, Alibaba said at the time.

        

       But according to the Alizila report, the fraud was "sometimes abetted
       by Alibaba.com employees." But Spelich said Saturday none of the 36
       arrested worked at the company.

        

       He added the number of fraud complaints received by the website in
       June was down 70 percent from February after Alibaba toughened
       procedures and other security measures.

        

       The report said Alibaba had refunded $1.9 million to those who lost
       their money to the alleged scammers.

       Click here to find out more!

        

       Kevin Stech

       Director of Research | STRATFOR

       kevin.stech@stratfor.com

       +1 (512) 744-4086

        

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 07:22:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3005275_re-eastasia-ct-os-china-csm-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3016788</id>
    <title>International Deal Structure (Stratcap)
</title>
    <description>120</description>
    <date>2011-09-29 00:29:15</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3016788_international-deal-structure-stratcap-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>shea.morenz@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>JHill@mpwcpa.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bknippa@jw.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>jstephenson@jw.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>asolomon@jw.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bjanes@jw.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/36/36383_International Deal Structure - Stratcap.pdf</path><size>137291</size><md5></md5><sha1>848eb6de74548e21bb7ea25a506db0fff00d4ab8</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3024929</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [OS] CHINA/CSM - Alibaba says China police arrest 36
 in fraud probe
</title>
    <description>    CPC would very well explore a majority of public, and in particular, the
   elite groups' unwillingness to have something radical that affect their
   livelihood and assets. and such threat would be severer in a situation
   where social-economic uncertainties are increasing. For many, instability
   is the most immediate concern than political reform or anything else, and
   even for some advocate calling for political reform, it is unlikely to be
   at the expense of their individual interests. Given such recognition, CPC
   will have the space to maneuver its propaganda and security asparagus to
   reinforce its role under current situation.

   But again, maintaining stability is nothing new, it is the priority for
   any authority in every country. But what we saw, perhaps is the greater
   empathize on CPC's role and capability in ensuring so. This happened in
   Tibet and Xijiang riot, when CPC attempted to enhance the role in ensuring
   economic development for ethnics, and crackdown outside maneuver in part
   for claiming protecting Han people. And for current unrest that CPC is
   reasserting the role to protect migrants and local public from losing
   assets. And further to radical call for political reform such as jasmine,
   saying such approach, particularly foreign manipulated could also lead to
   another chaos in China. They are all reactive measures, but they could be
   manipulated as part of CPC's attempt to reinforce its role

   On 05/07/2011 08:25, Melissa Taylor wrote:

     Could you elaborate a bit on what you mean when you say they have
     increased their focus on stability?  You list out many very good reasons
     for them to do so, but as someone who has only (relatively) recently
     been following Chinese daily news, I'm curious what you've noted.

     On 7/5/11 3:46 AM, Zhixing Zhang wrote:

       if we want to write on redism, several leftists (sent by Utopia) were
       beat by the police in front of Shanghai NPC June 22 when submitting
       their appeals. This highlighted the state's unwillingness to see
       drastic redism. Meanwhile, this could very much upset redisms (though
       not many) who thought they are the closest supporter of CPC and the
       state. On the other hand, Mao Yushi was banned to be interviewed by
       VOA. CPC will want a very smooth celebration of its anniversary, of
       which stability is the priority task.

       Back to our discussion on legitimacy, I have a feeling that CPC is
       really trying to push forward stability in the recent years. Of course
       stability is always the priority for a state, and in particular for a
       giant authoritarian regime - so even pushing forward stability is much
       more of a reactive measure. But with the society being much more
       diversified, economic facing greater uncertainty, increasing social
       unrest, increasingly polarized ideology, ensuring CPC's role in
       maintaining stability - neither culture revolution - that we have seen
       CPC in its birthday further distance itself from CR, and Bo was
       reportedly blamed by core circle that his approach is nearly CP
       approach (from HK media, and we have to monitor it for confirmation),
       nor foreign interfere - something rightism would support and while
       catering to public, it could be acceptable only in limited way. It can
       be a consensus for the public that revolution and western intervention
       are both evils, and maintaining current stability is the only way to
       maintain the current status, something CPC's role lies on.

       On 04/07/2011 23:18, Sean Noonan wrote:

         This is also a pretty good CSM topic.  some college kids running a
         scam through Alibaba (chinese ebay), took in a good amount of
         money. 

         If we had some good 'redism' related incidents, maybe I could write
         on that, but we'd need some very concise points to make. 

         Let me know what you guys think of this and the surveillance camera
         topic.

         Jen, I assume that Trapwire is a competitor to Cisco, but I'm not
         sure.  I don't know if trapwire makes the actual cameras or just
         does the analysis.   I won't have real questions till morning. 

         On 7/2/11 11:00 AM, Kevin Stech wrote:

           Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in fraud probe

           02 July 2011 - 08H10 

           http://www.france24.com/en/20110702-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-fraud-probe

            

           AFP - Police have arrested 36 people in southeast China following
           an investigation into fraud on e-commerce site Alibaba.com and
           other websites that duped buyers out of more than $6 million.

            

           Alizila.com, Alibaba's corporate news website, reported earlier
           this week the suspects were detained in Fujian province's Putian
           city in April. John Spelich, the firm's spokesman, confirmed the
           report to AFP on Saturday.

            

           The people arrested allegedly operated a criminal gang that used
           fake IDs to open more than 100 "Gold Supplier" accounts on
           Alibaba.com. This designation is given to those certified as
           highly trusted suppliers by the firm.

            

           This allowed the suspects to pose as legitimate companies selling
           to overseas businesses that source goods through Alibaba.com.
           Police said the alleged scammers also used other international
           trading websites.

            

           Alibaba.com, based in the eastern city of Hangzhou, has grown into
           one of China's largest Internet companies by matching mainland
           manufacturers and wholesalers with buyers around the world.

            

           But its reputation took a hit in February when the firm announced
           the resignation of chief executive David Wei and head of
           operations Elvis Lee after fraud was uncovered on the site.

            

           Wei and Lee were not involved in the scams but resigned because
           they took responsibility for "systemic breakdowns" that allowed
           the fraud to happen, Alibaba said at the time.

            

           But according to the Alizila report, the fraud was "sometimes
           abetted by Alibaba.com employees." But Spelich said Saturday none
           of the 36 arrested worked at the company.

            

           He added the number of fraud complaints received by the website in
           June was down 70 percent from February after Alibaba toughened
           procedures and other security measures.

            

           The report said Alibaba had refunded $1.9 million to those who
           lost their money to the alleged scammers.

           Click here to find out more!

            

           Kevin Stech

           Director of Research | STRATFOR

           kevin.stech@stratfor.com

           +1 (512) 744-4086

            

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 15:59:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3024929_re-eastasia-os-china-csm-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>zhixing.zhang@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3032240</id>
    <title>[OS] INDIA/MIL - India to up defences in Andamans, Lakshadweep
</title>
    <description>   India to up defences in Andamans, Lakshadweep
   New Delhi, June 27
   http://www.newkerala.com/news/2011/worldnews-15870.html

   Keeping in mind China's forays into the Indian Ocean region, India has
   approved plans to beef up its military infrastructure and force levels in
   the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the Lakshadweep chains on the eastern
   and western seaboards.

   The plans, approved at a meeting of the country's security top brass last
   month, involves the ramping of army, navy, air force and coast guard
   infrastructure, including a radar network, and force levels of both men
   and machines, a top defence ministry official told IANS.

   "The plans, approved at a meeting of the armed forces with the national
   security adviser's office last month, involves significant enhancement of
   military infrastructure and force accretion in both the Andaman and
   Nicobar and Lakshadweep chains," the official said on condition of
   anonymity.

   There is growing realisation in India that the island territories hold the
   key to dominating the vital maritime zones and securing the economic and
   strategic interests, apart from boosting engagements with friendly
   countries such as Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Myanmar, Sri Lanka,
   Mauritius and the Maldives by offering support in capacity building,
   military assets transfer, and joint patrolling of the common maritime
   borders.

   The Andaman and Nicobar chain already hosts a tri-services command, with
   elements of the army, navy and air force as part of its force structure,
   while the Lakshadweep chain has a coast guard district headquarters and
   stations.

   Among the approvals obtained are upgrading the Andaman and Nicobar Islands
   as an amphibious warfare training hub, as also increasing the army's force
   levels to more than a brigade, the official said.

   The naval air bases at Port Blair and the air force base in Car Nicobar
   too will be upgraded to facilitate fighter jet, helicopter and heavy
   transport plane operations.

   The Indian Air Force (IAF) has already tried out its potent frontline
   Sukhoi SU-30 fighter jets from air bases in the Andaman and Nicobar
   Islands.

   The Shibpur airstrip in north Andamans will be extended from 3,200 feet to
   12,000 feet to support all types of aircraft and night-flying operations.

   The navy and air force bases in both the island chains will also deploy
   unmanned aerial vehicles, to augment surveillance alongside the radar
   chains.

   The IAF chief, Air Chief Marshal P.V. Naik, when asked about the force
   accretion plans, said: "Of course, we are (going to do it). But it will
   happen in a planned manner. It is not immediate, but over the next two or
   three (five-year) plans."

   The navy, on its part, will scale up the jetties at Diglipur in north
   Andamans, Kamorta in south Andamans and Campbell Bay in Car Nicobar into
   "operational turn-around bases" with better refuelling and communication
   facilities, and more personnel.

   It will also place more warships, including landing pontoon docks that aid
   amphibious warfare with capacity to carry combat troops and battle tanks,
   in the Andaman and Nicobar chain.

   In Lakshadweep, the coast guard has already opened a district headquarters
   and operates a couple of stations. Now the navy plans to have a detachment
   in the island chain, which would be upgraded into a full-fledged base in
   the future with fast attack craft and interceptor boats.

   The armed forces in the Lakshadweep will also act as deterrents to the
   Somali pirates operating around the island chain, particularly in the Nine
   Degree Channel and the Arabian Sea.
</description>
    <date>2011-06-27 17:11:57</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-13 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3032240_-os-india-mil-india-to-up-defences-in-andamans-lakshadweep-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>os@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.redding@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:os@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3036343</id>
    <title>RE: G3/B3/GV - US/IRAN/VENEZUELA-US to sanction Venezuela's
	PDVSA	on	Iran trade-sources
</title>
    <description>   Okay you're right, loss of gov't contracts specifically is far less severe
   than it seemed at first glance. Venezuela despite its concerted effort to
   diversify its export markets is still very dependent on US markets (how
   dependent? Not sure - the stats are being actively ruined).

    

   The finance stuff is worse, but you know what? I think they can get
   financing. VZ and China are best buds and China has piles of USD it needs
   to offshore anyway. Pain in the ass to be sure, but as the last round of
   Iran sanctions showed, China loves financing America's headaches.

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Karen Hooper
   Sent: Tuesday, May 24, 2011 10:06
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: G3/B3/GV - US/IRAN/VENEZUELA-US to sanction Venezuela's PDVSA
   on Iran trade-sources

    

   Ok, here we go. Loss of access to government contracts doesn't seem like
   it would be a huge deal, that can't be  priority for PDVSA anyway. I'm
   less sure on the impact of import/export financing.

   U.S. sanctions Venezuela's PDVSA on Iran trade
   http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/24/us-iran-usa-sanctions-idUSTRE74N47R20110524
   10:29am EDT

   WASHINGTON | Tue May 24, 2011 10:35am EDT
   (Reuters) - The United States on Tuesday announced new sanctions on
   Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA and six other smaller oil and shipping
   companies for engaging in trade with Iran in violation of a U.S. ban.

   Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg said the sanctions on PDVSA
   would prevent it from access to U.S. government contracts and
   import/export financing, but would not affect the company's sale of oil to
   the United States or the activities of its subsidiaries.

   Karen Hooper

   Latin America Analyst
   o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
   c: 512.750.7234
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com

   On 5/24/11 10:51 AM, Reginald Thompson wrote:

   I get the impression Steinberg already spoke, but I don't see any official
   statement up. AFP had something that hit the wires already, but it lacks
   detail.

                    US announces new sanctions against Iran

   http://wires.univision.com/english/article/2011-05-24/us-announces-new-sanctions-against

    

   5.24.11

    

   The United States on Tuesday announced it is imposing sanctions against
   "seven foreign entities" including Venezuela's state oil company as part
   of new efforts to contain Iran's nuclear ambitions.

   "I'm here to announce that Secretary of State (Hillary) Clinton has
   decided to impose sanctions on seven foreign entities under the Iran
   sanctions act of 1996," her deputy James Steinberg told reporter.

   These include Petroleos de Venezuela, or PDVSA, as well as PCCI
   (Jersey/Iran), Royal Oyster Group (UAE), Speedy Ship (UAE/Iran), Tanker
   Pacific (Singapore), Ofer Brothers Group (Israel), and Associated
   Shipbroking (Monaco).

   The sanctions are aimed at preventing Iran from developing its energy
   sector, which in turn is used to fund its nuclear program, Steinberg said.

   "Today's action adds further pressure on Iran to comply with its
   international obligations," Steinberg said.

   The European Union on Monday tightened its own sanctions on Iran, adding
   more than 100 firms to a blacklist of companies hit by an assets freeze
   amid efforts to revive international talks to make Tehran halt its nuclear
   program.

   -----------------
   Reginald Thompson

   Cell: (011) 504 8990-7741

   OSINT
   Stratfor

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Karen Hooper" &lt;karen.hooper@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;, "Fred Burton"
   &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, May 24, 2011 10:47:39 AM
   Subject: Re: G3/B3/GV - US/IRAN/VENEZUELA-US to sanction Venezuela's
   PDVSA        on        Iran trade-sources

   Does anyone know Steinberg's staff? Can we get an advanced copy of his
   statements?

   Karen Hooper

   Latin America Analyst
   o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
   c: 512.750.7234
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com

   On 5/24/11 10:45 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

   They will not jeopardize US companies, so that means we wont see anything
   that directly impedes the flow of oil, nor will we see sanctions that
   directly target US companies operating in Venezuela.

   They will likely try to make it harder for PDVSA directly to access the
   financing they need for their operations. What we'll need to see though is
   if their JV partners will be able to access financing FOR them. There are
   projects wholly run by PDVSA though... those wont be able to directly
   access capital. But the state has a way of shuffling cash around, so it
   might be ok.

   Karen Hooper

   Latin America Analyst
   o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
   c: 512.750.7234
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com

   On 5/24/11 10:43 AM, Reginald Thompson wrote:

   Yeah, we'd definitely have to see what the implementation of sanctions on
   PDVSA looks like to really tell what will happen. However I've been
   thinking about any possible effect this could have (and please correct me
   if I'm wrong), but even if sanctions barring the Venezuelans from selling
   oil to the US were implemented, would it not still be theoretically
   possible for the Venezuelans to sell oil to the US via 3rd parties? Or
   would that pretty much be impossible through any sanctions? Also, the
   amount of firms that could stop doing business with PDVSA to not provoke
   the US could cause a pretty big financial hit to Venezuela. Just
   considering these things, because like Kevin said, it's a pretty BFD for
   Chavez if he loses oil revenue.

   -----------------
   Reginald Thompson

   Cell: (011) 504 8990-7741

   OSINT
   Stratfor

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Karen Hooper" &lt;karen.hooper@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: analysts@stratfor.com
   Sent: Tuesday, May 24, 2011 10:35:08 AM
   Subject: Re: G3/B3/GV - US/IRAN/VENEZUELA-US to sanction Venezuela's
   PDVSA        on        Iran trade-sources

   It's been discussed, but it wasn't at all clear they were serious. This
   could be  a big deal for Venezuela. Reva is going to try to get a hold of
   the folks who were pushing for this.

   It will not be clear how much this will hurt PDVSA until we hear how
   exactly they are going to implement sanctions, but this could represent a
   pretty serious shift of US policy towards Venezuela. This hits them where
   it hurts and at a time when the oil industry is seriously suffering.

   Karen Hooper

   Latin America Analyst
   o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
   c: 512.750.7234
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com

   On 5/24/11 10:12 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

   I'd go ahead and rep this, it's been planned for awhile but there hasn't
   been much talk about it recently (RT)

             US to sanction Venezuela's PDVSA on Iran trade-sources

   http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/24/iran-usa-sanctions-idUSWAT01513120110524

    

   5.24.11

    

   May 24 (Reuters) - The United States will sanction Venezuela's state oil
   company PDVSA on Tuesday for dealing with Iran in violation of a U.S. ban
   on such trade, sources briefed on the matter told Reuters.

   Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg was expected to announce the
   sanctions, which could include tough penalties such as being banned from
   the U.S. financial system or being denied U.S. contracts, the sources
   said. (Reporting by Susan Cornwell, Andrew Quinn and Arshad Mohammed;
   editing by Vicki Allen)

   -----------------
   Reginald Thompson

   Cell: (011) 504 8990-7741

   OSINT
   Stratfor

    

 --

  

 Benjamin Preisler

 +216 22 73 23 19
</description>
    <date>2011-05-24 17:12:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-10 21:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3036343_re-g3-b3-gv-us-iran-venezuela-us-to-sanction-venezuela-s.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kevin.stech@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3044335</id>
    <title>Fwd: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
</title>
    <description>   Ryan Sims
   Global Intelligence
   STRATFOR
   T: 512-744-4087
   F: 512-744-0570
   ryan.sims@stratfor.com
   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
     Date: June 16, 2011 1:04:08 PM CDT
     To: STRATFOR &lt;service@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: RE: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
     Kudos*a great explanation for those who don't understand or appreciate
     the efforts that go into a real intel op*as opposed to the Hollywood BS
     everyone seems to expect.
      
     I remind people all the time that we got the courier's name back in '03
     -- and thank goodness didn't take the typical "cuff 'em and drag him in"
     approach many had advocated. We stayed patient and threw real analytical
     support into this one. Took some time -- but the patient oriental
     approach usually pays bigger dividends.  M
      
     From: STRATFOR [mailto:mail@response.stratfor.com] 
     Sent: Thursday, June 16, 2011 11:45 AM
     To: Michael Maness
     Subject: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
      

View on Mobile Phone | Read the online version.                                  

      

     STRATFOR Weekly Intelligence Update                                      
     Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier: Special Edition of Above the        
     Tearline                                                                 
     The weekly Above the Tearline video series is part of our members-only   
     content. We hope you enjoy this exclusive chance to access it free.      
                                                                              
     [IMG]                                                                    
     Watch this exclusive edition of Above the Tearline                       
                                                                              
             Above the Tearline: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier          
                                                                              
                                                                              
                                                                              
     Vice President of Intelligence Fred Burton examines the sophisticated    
     surveillance operation that led to the raid on Osama bin Laden*s safe    
     house in Pakistan. Click here to view.                                   
     Save on annual memberships                                               
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</description>
    <date>2011-06-16 20:08:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3044335_fwd-surveillance-of-bin-laden-s-courier-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>service@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>responses@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3055437</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [OS] CHINA/CSM - Alibaba says China police arrest 36
 in fraud probe
</title>
    <description>   if we want to write on redism, several leftists (sent by Utopia) were beat
   by the police in front of Shanghai NPC June 22 when submitting their
   appeals. This highlighted the state's unwillingness to see drastic redism.
   Meanwhile, this could very much upset redisms (though not many) who
   thought they are the closest supporter of CPC and the state. On the other
   hand, Mao Yushi was banned to be interviewed by VOA. CPC will want a very
   smooth celebration of its anniversary, of which stability is the priority
   task.

   Back to our discussion on legitimacy, I have a feeling that CPC is really
   trying to push forward stability in the recent years. Of course stability
   is always the priority for a state, and in particular for a giant
   authoritarian regime - so even pushing forward stability is much more of a
   reactive measure. But with the society being much more diversified,
   economic facing greater uncertainty, increasing social unrest,
   increasingly polarized ideology, ensuring CPC's role in maintaining
   stability - neither culture revolution - that we have seen CPC in its
   birthday further distance itself from CR, and Bo was reportedly blamed by
   core circle that his approach is nearly CP approach (from HK media, and we
   have to monitor it for confirmation), nor foreign interfere - something
   rightism would support and while catering to public, it could be
   acceptable only in limited way. It can be a consensus for the public that
   revolution and western intervention are both evils, and maintaining
   current stability is the only way to maintain the current status,
   something CPC's role lies on.

   On 04/07/2011 23:18, Sean Noonan wrote:

     This is also a pretty good CSM topic.  some college kids running a scam
     through Alibaba (chinese ebay), took in a good amount of money. 

     If we had some good 'redism' related incidents, maybe I could write on
     that, but we'd need some very concise points to make. 

     Let me know what you guys think of this and the surveillance camera
     topic.

     Jen, I assume that Trapwire is a competitor to Cisco, but I'm not sure. 
     I don't know if trapwire makes the actual cameras or just does the
     analysis.   I won't have real questions till morning. 

     On 7/2/11 11:00 AM, Kevin Stech wrote:

       Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in fraud probe

       02 July 2011 - 08H10 

       http://www.france24.com/en/20110702-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-fraud-probe

        

       AFP - Police have arrested 36 people in southeast China following an
       investigation into fraud on e-commerce site Alibaba.com and other
       websites that duped buyers out of more than $6 million.

        

       Alizila.com, Alibaba's corporate news website, reported earlier this
       week the suspects were detained in Fujian province's Putian city in
       April. John Spelich, the firm's spokesman, confirmed the report to AFP
       on Saturday.

        

       The people arrested allegedly operated a criminal gang that used fake
       IDs to open more than 100 "Gold Supplier" accounts on Alibaba.com.
       This designation is given to those certified as highly trusted
       suppliers by the firm.

        

       This allowed the suspects to pose as legitimate companies selling to
       overseas businesses that source goods through Alibaba.com. Police said
       the alleged scammers also used other international trading websites.

        

       Alibaba.com, based in the eastern city of Hangzhou, has grown into one
       of China's largest Internet companies by matching mainland
       manufacturers and wholesalers with buyers around the world.

        

       But its reputation took a hit in February when the firm announced the
       resignation of chief executive David Wei and head of operations Elvis
       Lee after fraud was uncovered on the site.

        

       Wei and Lee were not involved in the scams but resigned because they
       took responsibility for "systemic breakdowns" that allowed the fraud
       to happen, Alibaba said at the time.

        

       But according to the Alizila report, the fraud was "sometimes abetted
       by Alibaba.com employees." But Spelich said Saturday none of the 36
       arrested worked at the company.

        

       He added the number of fraud complaints received by the website in
       June was down 70 percent from February after Alibaba toughened
       procedures and other security measures.

        

       The report said Alibaba had refunded $1.9 million to those who lost
       their money to the alleged scammers.

       Click here to find out more!

        

       Kevin Stech

       Director of Research | STRATFOR

       kevin.stech@stratfor.com

       +1 (512) 744-4086

        

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 10:46:19</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3055437_re-eastasia-os-china-csm-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>zhixing.zhang@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3055697</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [OS] CHINA/CSM - Alibaba says China police arrest 36
 in fraud probe
</title>
    <description>   Could you elaborate a bit on what you mean when you say they have
   increased their focus on stability?  You list out many very good reasons
   for them to do so, but as someone who has only (relatively) recently been
   following Chinese daily news, I'm curious what you've noted.

   On 7/5/11 3:46 AM, Zhixing Zhang wrote:

     if we want to write on redism, several leftists (sent by Utopia) were
     beat by the police in front of Shanghai NPC June 22 when submitting
     their appeals. This highlighted the state's unwillingness to see drastic
     redism. Meanwhile, this could very much upset redisms (though not many)
     who thought they are the closest supporter of CPC and the state. On the
     other hand, Mao Yushi was banned to be interviewed by VOA. CPC will want
     a very smooth celebration of its anniversary, of which stability is the
     priority task.

     Back to our discussion on legitimacy, I have a feeling that CPC is
     really trying to push forward stability in the recent years. Of course
     stability is always the priority for a state, and in particular for a
     giant authoritarian regime - so even pushing forward stability is much
     more of a reactive measure. But with the society being much more
     diversified, economic facing greater uncertainty, increasing social
     unrest, increasingly polarized ideology, ensuring CPC's role in
     maintaining stability - neither culture revolution - that we have seen
     CPC in its birthday further distance itself from CR, and Bo was
     reportedly blamed by core circle that his approach is nearly CP approach
     (from HK media, and we have to monitor it for confirmation), nor foreign
     interfere - something rightism would support and while catering to
     public, it could be acceptable only in limited way. It can be a
     consensus for the public that revolution and western intervention are
     both evils, and maintaining current stability is the only way to
     maintain the current status, something CPC's role lies on.

     On 04/07/2011 23:18, Sean Noonan wrote:

       This is also a pretty good CSM topic.  some college kids running a
       scam through Alibaba (chinese ebay), took in a good amount of money. 

       If we had some good 'redism' related incidents, maybe I could write on
       that, but we'd need some very concise points to make. 

       Let me know what you guys think of this and the surveillance camera
       topic.

       Jen, I assume that Trapwire is a competitor to Cisco, but I'm not
       sure.  I don't know if trapwire makes the actual cameras or just does
       the analysis.   I won't have real questions till morning. 

       On 7/2/11 11:00 AM, Kevin Stech wrote:

         Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in fraud probe

         02 July 2011 - 08H10 

         http://www.france24.com/en/20110702-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-fraud-probe

          

         AFP - Police have arrested 36 people in southeast China following an
         investigation into fraud on e-commerce site Alibaba.com and other
         websites that duped buyers out of more than $6 million.

          

         Alizila.com, Alibaba's corporate news website, reported earlier this
         week the suspects were detained in Fujian province's Putian city in
         April. John Spelich, the firm's spokesman, confirmed the report to
         AFP on Saturday.

          

         The people arrested allegedly operated a criminal gang that used
         fake IDs to open more than 100 "Gold Supplier" accounts on
         Alibaba.com. This designation is given to those certified as highly
         trusted suppliers by the firm.

          

         This allowed the suspects to pose as legitimate companies selling to
         overseas businesses that source goods through Alibaba.com. Police
         said the alleged scammers also used other international trading
         websites.

          

         Alibaba.com, based in the eastern city of Hangzhou, has grown into
         one of China's largest Internet companies by matching mainland
         manufacturers and wholesalers with buyers around the world.

          

         But its reputation took a hit in February when the firm announced
         the resignation of chief executive David Wei and head of operations
         Elvis Lee after fraud was uncovered on the site.

          

         Wei and Lee were not involved in the scams but resigned because they
         took responsibility for "systemic breakdowns" that allowed the fraud
         to happen, Alibaba said at the time.

          

         But according to the Alizila report, the fraud was "sometimes
         abetted by Alibaba.com employees." But Spelich said Saturday none of
         the 36 arrested worked at the company.

          

         He added the number of fraud complaints received by the website in
         June was down 70 percent from February after Alibaba toughened
         procedures and other security measures.

          

         The report said Alibaba had refunded $1.9 million to those who lost
         their money to the alleged scammers.

         Click here to find out more!

          

         Kevin Stech

         Director of Research | STRATFOR

         kevin.stech@stratfor.com

         +1 (512) 744-4086

          

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 15:25:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3055697_re-eastasia-os-china-csm-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>melissa.taylor@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3066587</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [CT] Fwd: [OS] CHINA/CSM/CT- Cisco Poised to Help
	China Keep an Eye on Its	Citizens
</title>
    <description>   I'm sitting here with a cisco guy.  What is the trapwire tech?  He's not
   involved with this project but let me know if there are any ques and I'll
   see what he can find out.

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Jul 4, 2011, at 8:55 PM, Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

     Maybe with talk of Trapwire technology and such we can provide some
     insight on this.  The addition of the cameras is not new, I think i had
     it in the bullets sometime earlier this year. 

     -------- Original Message --------

      Subject: [OS] CHINA/CSM/CT- Cisco Poised to Help China Keep an Eye on   
               Its Citizens                                                   
         Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2011 22:52:54 -0500                                
         From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;                         
     Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                  
           To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                  

         * JULY 5, 2011

     Censorship Inc.
     Cisco Poised to Help China Keep an Eye on Its Citizens
     Read more:
     http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304778304576377141077267316.html#ixzz1RCQsajlK
     By LORETTA CHAO in Beijing and DON CLARK in San Francisco
     [CISCO] Getty Images

     Cameras in Beijing's Tiananmen Square. U.S. firms can sell surveillance
     gear in China, but not equipment that is used only for crime control.

     Western companies including Cisco Systems Inc. are poised to help build
     an ambitious new surveillance project in Chinaa**a citywide network of
     as many as 500,000 cameras that officials say will prevent crime but
     that human-rights advocates warn could target political dissent.
     [CISCO_p1]

     The system, being built in the city of Chongqing over the next two to
     three years, is among the largest and most sophisticated
     video-surveillance projects of its kind in China, and perhaps the world.
     Dubbed "Peaceful Chongqing," it is planned to cover a half-million
     intersections, neighborhoods and parks over nearly 400 square miles, an
     area more than 25% larger than New York City.

     The project sheds light on how Western tech companies sell their wares
     in China, the Middle East and other places where there is potential for
     the gear to be used for political purposes and not just safety. The
     products range from Internet-censoring software to sophisticated
     networking gear. China in particular has drawn criticism for treating
     political dissent as a crime and has a track record of using technology
     to suppress it.

     An examination of the Peaceful Chongqing project by The Wall Street
     Journal shows Cisco is expected to supply networking equipment that is
     essential to operating large and complicated surveillance systems,
     according to people familiar with the deal.

     The U.S. has prohibited export of crime-control products to China (for
     instance, fingerprinting equipment) ever since Beijing's deadly 1989
     Tiananmen Square crackdown. But the U.S. restrictions don't prohibit
     sale of technologies such as cameras that can be used in many waysa**to
     tame, say, either traffic jams or democracy marches. This loophole
     troubles some critics. There is no indication that Cisco is selling
     products customized for crime control.
     More

         * Cisco Faces Lawsuits, Criticism Over Past China Activities

     Western companies' pursuit of sales in China underscores a fundamental
     question for businesses and policy makers alike: Should companies be
     held accountable if foreign governments use their products for political
     suppression?

     Cisco was brought in to the Chongqing project by Chinese security
     company Hikvision Digital Technology Co., the project's main contractor,
     Hikvision officials and others say. It is unclear whether Cisco's
     participation has been finalized, although one person familiar with the
     matter says it is close.

     Officials at Cisco, based in San Jose, Calif., declined to discuss its
     possible involvement in detail. A company spokesman stressed that Cisco
     "hasn't sold video cameras or video-surveillance solutions in any of our
     public infrastructure projects in China."

     The company has previously saida**including in a June blog post by
     Cisco's general counsel, Mark Chandlera**that the company strictly
     abides by the Tiananmen export controls and doesn't supply any gear to
     China that is "customized in any way" to facilitate repressive uses.

     View Full Image
     CISCO_jmp
     CISCO_jmp
     CISCO_jmp

     Cisco is the world's biggest maker of networking equipment, which
     includes routing and switching systems that send data between computers
     and connect systems to the Internet. The company has stirred controversy
     in the past for its China dealings.

     The Chongqing project is also attracting interest from other U.S.
     companies, including Alabama software maker Intergraph Corp.
     Hewlett-Packard Co. also expects to bid on part of the project,
     according to a senior H-P executive.

     The people familiar with the matter said H-P may be looking to supply
     servers or storage equipment for Peaceful Chongqing.

     Asked about concerns about political use of the system, Todd Bradley, an
     executive vice president who oversees H-P's China strategy, said in an
     interview last week in China, "We take them at their word as to the
     usage." He added, "It's not my job to really understand what they're
     going to use it for. Our job is to respond to the bid that they've
     made."
     Censorship Inc.

         * Mideast Uses Western Tools to Battle the Skype Rebellion 6/1/2011
         * Iran Vows to Unplug Internet 5/28/2011
         * U.S. Products Help Block Mideast Web 3/28/2011

     Another possible participant in the Chongqing project is Intergraph, a
     Huntsville, Ala., company that made a bid through Cisco to provide
     customized software for the effort, said Bob Scott, head of Intergraph's
     security group. It is unclear if the company, a unit of Sweden's Hexagon
     AB, will ultimately be hired.

     Although sale of surveillance technology to repressive nations is
     permissible, some critics have harsh words for companies that do so.
     "The business community is only hearing what it wants to hear and
     disregarding the rest," said Rep. Frank Wolf, a Virginia Republican who
     co-chairs the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, a nonpartisan rights
     group made up of members of Congress.

     Chongqing, a sprawling metropolis in southwestern China, is one of the
     most populous cities in the nation with an urban population of at least
     12 million. The hillside Yangtze River port, famous for spicy hot-pot
     and often covered in fog, was China's capital from 1938 to 1945. Today,
     it is being developed as a gateway to the country's western hinterland.

     Chongqing has gained prominence the past two years because of its
     Communist Party chief, Bo Xilai, a rising political star who has led a
     controversial crackdown on organized crime that some lawyers have
     criticized for what they say are violations of legal due process.

     View Full Image
     CISCO
     Getty Images

     Chongqing's party chief, Bo Xilai, led a controversial crime crackdown.
     CISCO
     CISCO

     Mr. Bo declined to comment. He is expected to become one of China's top
     leaders next year by being appointed to China's Politburo Standing
     Committee, the nation's top decision-making body.

     Chongqing's government has said it plans to invest more than $800
     million of its own in building the Peaceful Chongqing system. Another
     $1.6 billion is coming from other, unspecified sources, the city has
     said. Hikvision's president, Hu Yangzhong, said in an interview that
     government funds would go toward building the central surveillance
     network and installing a portion of the cameras, while more cameras
     would be installed by owners of residences, office buildings and
     othersa**all of which would be linked to the network.

     Video-surveillance systems can serve many purposes and are routinely
     used for benign purposes by cities world-wide to fight crime and ease
     traffic. Still, civil libertarians raise concerns including in the U.S.
     that the technology can invade privacy and is poorly regulated.

     Human-rights advocates say Chinese police have used surveillance footage
     to identify people in political protests. Jailed Chinese artist-activist
     Ai Weiwei, who was released last month, complained before he was
     apprehended on April 3 that police were using cameras to monitor him.

     Corinna-Barbara Francis, a researcher at Amnesty International, said
     surveillance footage has been used to identify and apprehend peaceful
     protesters in China, including in Xinjiang and Tibet. "In China there's
     ample evidence that they use" video surveillance "to crack down and then
     criminalize activity which should not be criminalized," Ms. Francis
     said.

     The Chongqing government declined to comment, as did China's Ministry of
     Public Security and the State Council Information Office. Chinese
     leaders have long argued that maintaining social stability and economic
     growth takes precedence over political rights.

     Hikvision's president, Mr. Hu, said he believes the project's goal is to
     cut crime, not target political dissidents. "China has a very serious
     public-security problem," he said in an interview last week. He blamed
     an epidemic of robbery and other crimes on the flood of poor migrants
     into China's cities and a growing wealth gap.

     Mr. Hu said Chongqing's new surveillance system will be tied in to an
     information network that Cisco is already building in the city, where
     Cisco has announced a high-profile alliance under a program it calls
     Smart+Connected Communitiesa**an initiative under which Cisco consults
     with governments around the world to use technology to tackle civic
     problems such as transportation, healthcare and education.

     According to the Chongqing government's website, Cisco Chief Executive
     John Chambers told the city's mayor in a meeting last year that he hoped
     the Smart+Connected project could create a "model in Chongqing which can
     be popularized in China."

     Executives at Western companies say they must weigh the possibility that
     technology could be misused against the business risks of missing out on
     a lucrative market. "We do have concerns," said Intergraph's Mr. Scott.
     "On the other hand, we want to do business there," he said, noting that
     the company's software is also used for environmental and other projects
     in China.

     "We're just the technology platform," he said, adding that it is the
     responsibility of the buyers "to meet and adhere to laws and policies"
     of their jurisdictions. Ultimately, Intergraph has "to manage the risk
     against the gain."

     In an April interview with the Journal, Bill Stuntz, general manager of
     Cisco's physical-security business, said Cisco gives careful
     consideration to how its products are used in China and doesn't want
     them to be used for repressive purposes. He declined to discuss specific
     projects in China but noted that sales of security equipment there have
     been expanding rapidly. He said Cisco is providing products that include
     networking equipment and servers along with support for some large
     video-surveillance systems, though not video cameras.

     China has become the fastest growing market for surveillance equipment,
     although it isn't yet the biggest, according to IMS Research, a U.K.
     firm that studies the market. The surveillance markets in the U.S. and
     Europe are growing at single-digit rates while surveillance-related
     revenue in China is growing at 23% a year. Surveillance-equipment sales
     alone, not including networking gear or software, totaled $1.7 billion
     last year.

     Chongqing's government says on its website that its current surveillance
     system is outdated, allowing police to directly tap into just 15,000 of
     the total 300,000 cameras. It wants the new system to be among the
     world's most advanced.

     Mr. Scott of Intergraph says Chongqing wants not only to increase camera
     count, but also to have video managed and delivered to dozens of police
     precincts and other organizations. The project presents challenges "that
     have not really been done anywhere else in the world," he said.

     Mr. Scott said his company spent three years developing software that
     enables multiple agencies to control cameras and also analyzes video
     feeds for unusual situations like fires or the formation of crowds.

     The number of surveillance cameras in Chinese cities including Chongqing
     appears to dwarf that of other cities around the world, though
     comparisons are tough because cities generally don't disclose their
     camera counts.

     A 2008 report by the state-run Xinhua news agency said Beijing had some
     280,000 cameras in its system. By comparison, privacy advocates in the
     U.S., including the American Civil Liberties Union, estimate Chicago has
     10,000 cameras. The New York Civil Liberties Union estimated in 2009
     that there were 8,000 cameras in New York.
     a**Kersten Zhang, Yoli Zhang, Jason Dean and Cari Tuna contributed to
     this article.

     Write to Loretta Chao at loretta.chao@wsj.com and Don Clark at
     don.clark@wsj.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 06:03:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3066587_re-eastasia-ct-fwd-os-china-csm-ct-cisco-poised-to-help.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>richmond@core.stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3066896</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [OS] CHINA/CSM - Alibaba says China police arrest 36
 in fraud probe
</title>
    <description>   This is also a pretty good CSM topic.  some college kids running a scam
   through Alibaba (chinese ebay), took in a good amount of money. 

   If we had some good 'redism' related incidents, maybe I could write on
   that, but we'd need some very concise points to make. 

   Let me know what you guys think of this and the surveillance camera topic.

   Jen, I assume that Trapwire is a competitor to Cisco, but I'm not sure.  I
   don't know if trapwire makes the actual cameras or just does the
   analysis.   I won't have real questions till morning. 

   On 7/2/11 11:00 AM, Kevin Stech wrote:

     Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in fraud probe

     02 July 2011 - 08H10 

     http://www.france24.com/en/20110702-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-fraud-probe

      

     AFP - Police have arrested 36 people in southeast China following an
     investigation into fraud on e-commerce site Alibaba.com and other
     websites that duped buyers out of more than $6 million.

      

     Alizila.com, Alibaba's corporate news website, reported earlier this
     week the suspects were detained in Fujian province's Putian city in
     April. John Spelich, the firm's spokesman, confirmed the report to AFP
     on Saturday.

      

     The people arrested allegedly operated a criminal gang that used fake
     IDs to open more than 100 "Gold Supplier" accounts on Alibaba.com. This
     designation is given to those certified as highly trusted suppliers by
     the firm.

      

     This allowed the suspects to pose as legitimate companies selling to
     overseas businesses that source goods through Alibaba.com. Police said
     the alleged scammers also used other international trading websites.

      

     Alibaba.com, based in the eastern city of Hangzhou, has grown into one
     of China's largest Internet companies by matching mainland manufacturers
     and wholesalers with buyers around the world.

      

     But its reputation took a hit in February when the firm announced the
     resignation of chief executive David Wei and head of operations Elvis
     Lee after fraud was uncovered on the site.

      

     Wei and Lee were not involved in the scams but resigned because they
     took responsibility for "systemic breakdowns" that allowed the fraud to
     happen, Alibaba said at the time.

      

     But according to the Alizila report, the fraud was "sometimes abetted by
     Alibaba.com employees." But Spelich said Saturday none of the 36
     arrested worked at the company.

      

     He added the number of fraud complaints received by the website in June
     was down 70 percent from February after Alibaba toughened procedures and
     other security measures.

      

     The report said Alibaba had refunded $1.9 million to those who lost
     their money to the alleged scammers.

     Click here to find out more!

      

     Kevin Stech

     Director of Research | STRATFOR

     kevin.stech@stratfor.com

     +1 (512) 744-4086

      

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 06:18:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3066896_re-eastasia-os-china-csm-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3068208</id>
    <title>[EastAsia] Fwd: [OS] CHINA/CSM/CT- Cisco Poised to Help China Keep
 an Eye on Its	Citizens
</title>
    <description>   Maybe with talk of Trapwire technology and such we can provide some
   insight on this.  The addition of the cameras is not new, I think i had it
   in the bullets sometime earlier this year. 

   -------- Original Message --------

    Subject: [OS] CHINA/CSM/CT- Cisco Poised to Help China Keep an Eye on Its 
             Citizens                                                         
       Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2011 22:52:54 -0500                                  
       From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;                           
   Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                    
         To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                    

       * JULY 5, 2011

   Censorship Inc.
   Cisco Poised to Help China Keep an Eye on Its Citizens
   Read more:
   http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304778304576377141077267316.html#ixzz1RCQsajlK
   By LORETTA CHAO in Beijing and DON CLARK in San Francisco
   [CISCO] Getty Images

   Cameras in Beijing's Tiananmen Square. U.S. firms can sell surveillance
   gear in China, but not equipment that is used only for crime control.

   Western companies including Cisco Systems Inc. are poised to help build an
   ambitious new surveillance project in China-a citywide network of as many
   as 500,000 cameras that officials say will prevent crime but that
   human-rights advocates warn could target political dissent.
   [CISCO_p1]

   The system, being built in the city of Chongqing over the next two to
   three years, is among the largest and most sophisticated
   video-surveillance projects of its kind in China, and perhaps the world.
   Dubbed "Peaceful Chongqing," it is planned to cover a half-million
   intersections, neighborhoods and parks over nearly 400 square miles, an
   area more than 25% larger than New York City.

   The project sheds light on how Western tech companies sell their wares in
   China, the Middle East and other places where there is potential for the
   gear to be used for political purposes and not just safety. The products
   range from Internet-censoring software to sophisticated networking gear.
   China in particular has drawn criticism for treating political dissent as
   a crime and has a track record of using technology to suppress it.

   An examination of the Peaceful Chongqing project by The Wall Street
   Journal shows Cisco is expected to supply networking equipment that is
   essential to operating large and complicated surveillance systems,
   according to people familiar with the deal.

   The U.S. has prohibited export of crime-control products to China (for
   instance, fingerprinting equipment) ever since Beijing's deadly 1989
   Tiananmen Square crackdown. But the U.S. restrictions don't prohibit sale
   of technologies such as cameras that can be used in many ways-to tame,
   say, either traffic jams or democracy marches. This loophole troubles some
   critics. There is no indication that Cisco is selling products customized
   for crime control.
   More

       * Cisco Faces Lawsuits, Criticism Over Past China Activities

   Western companies' pursuit of sales in China underscores a fundamental
   question for businesses and policy makers alike: Should companies be held
   accountable if foreign governments use their products for political
   suppression?

   Cisco was brought in to the Chongqing project by Chinese security company
   Hikvision Digital Technology Co., the project's main contractor, Hikvision
   officials and others say. It is unclear whether Cisco's participation has
   been finalized, although one person familiar with the matter says it is
   close.

   Officials at Cisco, based in San Jose, Calif., declined to discuss its
   possible involvement in detail. A company spokesman stressed that Cisco
   "hasn't sold video cameras or video-surveillance solutions in any of our
   public infrastructure projects in China."

   The company has previously said-including in a June blog post by Cisco's
   general counsel, Mark Chandler-that the company strictly abides by the
   Tiananmen export controls and doesn't supply any gear to China that is
   "customized in any way" to facilitate repressive uses.

   View Full Image
   CISCO_jmp
   CISCO_jmp
   CISCO_jmp

   Cisco is the world's biggest maker of networking equipment, which includes
   routing and switching systems that send data between computers and connect
   systems to the Internet. The company has stirred controversy in the past
   for its China dealings.

   The Chongqing project is also attracting interest from other U.S.
   companies, including Alabama software maker Intergraph Corp.
   Hewlett-Packard Co. also expects to bid on part of the project, according
   to a senior H-P executive.

   The people familiar with the matter said H-P may be looking to supply
   servers or storage equipment for Peaceful Chongqing.

   Asked about concerns about political use of the system, Todd Bradley, an
   executive vice president who oversees H-P's China strategy, said in an
   interview last week in China, "We take them at their word as to the
   usage." He added, "It's not my job to really understand what they're going
   to use it for. Our job is to respond to the bid that they've made."
   Censorship Inc.

       * Mideast Uses Western Tools to Battle the Skype Rebellion 6/1/2011
       * Iran Vows to Unplug Internet 5/28/2011
       * U.S. Products Help Block Mideast Web 3/28/2011

   Another possible participant in the Chongqing project is Intergraph, a
   Huntsville, Ala., company that made a bid through Cisco to provide
   customized software for the effort, said Bob Scott, head of Intergraph's
   security group. It is unclear if the company, a unit of Sweden's Hexagon
   AB, will ultimately be hired.

   Although sale of surveillance technology to repressive nations is
   permissible, some critics have harsh words for companies that do so. "The
   business community is only hearing what it wants to hear and disregarding
   the rest," said Rep. Frank Wolf, a Virginia Republican who co-chairs the
   Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, a nonpartisan rights group made up of
   members of Congress.

   Chongqing, a sprawling metropolis in southwestern China, is one of the
   most populous cities in the nation with an urban population of at least 12
   million. The hillside Yangtze River port, famous for spicy hot-pot and
   often covered in fog, was China's capital from 1938 to 1945. Today, it is
   being developed as a gateway to the country's western hinterland.

   Chongqing has gained prominence the past two years because of its
   Communist Party chief, Bo Xilai, a rising political star who has led a
   controversial crackdown on organized crime that some lawyers have
   criticized for what they say are violations of legal due process.

   View Full Image
   CISCO
   Getty Images

   Chongqing's party chief, Bo Xilai, led a controversial crime crackdown.
   CISCO
   CISCO

   Mr. Bo declined to comment. He is expected to become one of China's top
   leaders next year by being appointed to China's Politburo Standing
   Committee, the nation's top decision-making body.

   Chongqing's government has said it plans to invest more than $800 million
   of its own in building the Peaceful Chongqing system. Another $1.6 billion
   is coming from other, unspecified sources, the city has said. Hikvision's
   president, Hu Yangzhong, said in an interview that government funds would
   go toward building the central surveillance network and installing a
   portion of the cameras, while more cameras would be installed by owners of
   residences, office buildings and others-all of which would be linked to
   the network.

   Video-surveillance systems can serve many purposes and are routinely used
   for benign purposes by cities world-wide to fight crime and ease traffic.
   Still, civil libertarians raise concerns including in the U.S. that the
   technology can invade privacy and is poorly regulated.

   Human-rights advocates say Chinese police have used surveillance footage
   to identify people in political protests. Jailed Chinese artist-activist
   Ai Weiwei, who was released last month, complained before he was
   apprehended on April 3 that police were using cameras to monitor him.

   Corinna-Barbara Francis, a researcher at Amnesty International, said
   surveillance footage has been used to identify and apprehend peaceful
   protesters in China, including in Xinjiang and Tibet. "In China there's
   ample evidence that they use" video surveillance "to crack down and then
   criminalize activity which should not be criminalized," Ms. Francis said.

   The Chongqing government declined to comment, as did China's Ministry of
   Public Security and the State Council Information Office. Chinese leaders
   have long argued that maintaining social stability and economic growth
   takes precedence over political rights.

   Hikvision's president, Mr. Hu, said he believes the project's goal is to
   cut crime, not target political dissidents. "China has a very serious
   public-security problem," he said in an interview last week. He blamed an
   epidemic of robbery and other crimes on the flood of poor migrants into
   China's cities and a growing wealth gap.

   Mr. Hu said Chongqing's new surveillance system will be tied in to an
   information network that Cisco is already building in the city, where
   Cisco has announced a high-profile alliance under a program it calls
   Smart+Connected Communities-an initiative under which Cisco consults with
   governments around the world to use technology to tackle civic problems
   such as transportation, healthcare and education.

   According to the Chongqing government's website, Cisco Chief Executive
   John Chambers told the city's mayor in a meeting last year that he hoped
   the Smart+Connected project could create a "model in Chongqing which can
   be popularized in China."

   Executives at Western companies say they must weigh the possibility that
   technology could be misused against the business risks of missing out on a
   lucrative market. "We do have concerns," said Intergraph's Mr. Scott. "On
   the other hand, we want to do business there," he said, noting that the
   company's software is also used for environmental and other projects in
   China.

   "We're just the technology platform," he said, adding that it is the
   responsibility of the buyers "to meet and adhere to laws and policies" of
   their jurisdictions. Ultimately, Intergraph has "to manage the risk
   against the gain."

   In an April interview with the Journal, Bill Stuntz, general manager of
   Cisco's physical-security business, said Cisco gives careful consideration
   to how its products are used in China and doesn't want them to be used for
   repressive purposes. He declined to discuss specific projects in China but
   noted that sales of security equipment there have been expanding rapidly.
   He said Cisco is providing products that include networking equipment and
   servers along with support for some large video-surveillance systems,
   though not video cameras.

   China has become the fastest growing market for surveillance equipment,
   although it isn't yet the biggest, according to IMS Research, a U.K. firm
   that studies the market. The surveillance markets in the U.S. and Europe
   are growing at single-digit rates while surveillance-related revenue in
   China is growing at 23% a year. Surveillance-equipment sales alone, not
   including networking gear or software, totaled $1.7 billion last year.

   Chongqing's government says on its website that its current surveillance
   system is outdated, allowing police to directly tap into just 15,000 of
   the total 300,000 cameras. It wants the new system to be among the world's
   most advanced.

   Mr. Scott of Intergraph says Chongqing wants not only to increase camera
   count, but also to have video managed and delivered to dozens of police
   precincts and other organizations. The project presents challenges "that
   have not really been done anywhere else in the world," he said.

   Mr. Scott said his company spent three years developing software that
   enables multiple agencies to control cameras and also analyzes video feeds
   for unusual situations like fires or the formation of crowds.

   The number of surveillance cameras in Chinese cities including Chongqing
   appears to dwarf that of other cities around the world, though comparisons
   are tough because cities generally don't disclose their camera counts.

   A 2008 report by the state-run Xinhua news agency said Beijing had some
   280,000 cameras in its system. By comparison, privacy advocates in the
   U.S., including the American Civil Liberties Union, estimate Chicago has
   10,000 cameras. The New York Civil Liberties Union estimated in 2009 that
   there were 8,000 cameras in New York.
   -Kersten Zhang, Yoli Zhang, Jason Dean and Cari Tuna contributed to this
   article.

   Write to Loretta Chao at loretta.chao@wsj.com and Don Clark at
   don.clark@wsj.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 05:55:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3068208_-eastasia-fwd-os-china-csm-ct-cisco-poised-to-help-china.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3102418</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [OS] CHINA/CSM - Alibaba says China police arrest 36
 in fraud probe
</title>
    <description>   if we want to write on redism, several leftists (sent by Utopia) were beat
   by the police in front of Shanghai NPC June 22 when submitting their
   appeals. This highlighted the state's unwillingness to see drastic redism.
   Meanwhile, this could very much upset redisms (though not many) who
   thought they are the closest supporter of CPC and the state. On the other
   hand, Mao Yushi was banned to be interviewed by VOA. CPC will want a very
   smooth celebration of its anniversary, of which stability is the priority
   task.

   Back to our discussion on legitimacy, I have a feeling that CPC is really
   trying to push forward stability in the recent years. Of course stability
   is always the priority for a state, and in particular for a giant
   authoritarian regime - so even pushing forward stability is much more of a
   reactive measure. But with the society being much more diversified,
   economic facing greater uncertainty, increasing social unrest,
   increasingly polarized ideology, ensuring CPC's role in maintaining
   stability - neither culture revolution - that we have seen CPC in its
   birthday further distance itself from CR, and Bo was reportedly blamed by
   core circle that his approach is nearly CP approach (from HK media, and we
   have to monitor it for confirmation), nor foreign interfere - something
   rightism would support and while catering to public, it could be
   acceptable only in limited way. It can be a consensus for the public that
   revolution and western intervention are both evils, and maintaining
   current stability is the only way to maintain the current status,
   something CPC's role lies on.

   On 04/07/2011 23:18, Sean Noonan wrote:

     This is also a pretty good CSM topic.  some college kids running a scam
     through Alibaba (chinese ebay), took in a good amount of money. 

     If we had some good 'redism' related incidents, maybe I could write on
     that, but we'd need some very concise points to make. 

     Let me know what you guys think of this and the surveillance camera
     topic.

     Jen, I assume that Trapwire is a competitor to Cisco, but I'm not sure. 
     I don't know if trapwire makes the actual cameras or just does the
     analysis.   I won't have real questions till morning. 

     On 7/2/11 11:00 AM, Kevin Stech wrote:

       Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in fraud probe

       02 July 2011 - 08H10 

       http://www.france24.com/en/20110702-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-fraud-probe

        

       AFP - Police have arrested 36 people in southeast China following an
       investigation into fraud on e-commerce site Alibaba.com and other
       websites that duped buyers out of more than $6 million.

        

       Alizila.com, Alibaba's corporate news website, reported earlier this
       week the suspects were detained in Fujian province's Putian city in
       April. John Spelich, the firm's spokesman, confirmed the report to AFP
       on Saturday.

        

       The people arrested allegedly operated a criminal gang that used fake
       IDs to open more than 100 "Gold Supplier" accounts on Alibaba.com.
       This designation is given to those certified as highly trusted
       suppliers by the firm.

        

       This allowed the suspects to pose as legitimate companies selling to
       overseas businesses that source goods through Alibaba.com. Police said
       the alleged scammers also used other international trading websites.

        

       Alibaba.com, based in the eastern city of Hangzhou, has grown into one
       of China's largest Internet companies by matching mainland
       manufacturers and wholesalers with buyers around the world.

        

       But its reputation took a hit in February when the firm announced the
       resignation of chief executive David Wei and head of operations Elvis
       Lee after fraud was uncovered on the site.

        

       Wei and Lee were not involved in the scams but resigned because they
       took responsibility for "systemic breakdowns" that allowed the fraud
       to happen, Alibaba said at the time.

        

       But according to the Alizila report, the fraud was "sometimes abetted
       by Alibaba.com employees." But Spelich said Saturday none of the 36
       arrested worked at the company.

        

       He added the number of fraud complaints received by the website in
       June was down 70 percent from February after Alibaba toughened
       procedures and other security measures.

        

       The report said Alibaba had refunded $1.9 million to those who lost
       their money to the alleged scammers.

       Click here to find out more!

        

       Kevin Stech

       Director of Research | STRATFOR

       kevin.stech@stratfor.com

       +1 (512) 744-4086

        

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 10:46:19</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3102418_re-eastasia-os-china-csm-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3102797</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [OS] CHINA/CSM - Alibaba says China police arrest 36
 in fraud probe
</title>
    <description>    CPC would very well explore a majority of public, and in particular, the
   elite groups' unwillingness to have something radical that affect their
   livelihood and assets. and such threat would be severer in a situation
   where social-economic uncertainties are increasing. For many, instability
   is the most immediate concern than political reform or anything else, and
   even for some advocate calling for political reform, it is unlikely to be
   at the expense of their individual interests. Given such recognition, CPC
   will have the space to maneuver its propaganda and security asparagus to
   reinforce its role under current situation.

   But again, maintaining stability is nothing new, it is the priority for
   any authority in every country. But what we saw, perhaps is the greater
   empathize on CPC's role and capability in ensuring so. This happened in
   Tibet and Xijiang riot, when CPC attempted to enhance the role in ensuring
   economic development for ethnics, and crackdown outside maneuver in part
   for claiming protecting Han people. And for current unrest that CPC is
   reasserting the role to protect migrants and local public from losing
   assets. And further to radical call for political reform such as jasmine,
   saying such approach, particularly foreign manipulated could also lead to
   another chaos in China. They are all reactive measures, but they could be
   manipulated as part of CPC's attempt to reinforce its role

   On 05/07/2011 08:25, Melissa Taylor wrote:

     Could you elaborate a bit on what you mean when you say they have
     increased their focus on stability?  You list out many very good reasons
     for them to do so, but as someone who has only (relatively) recently
     been following Chinese daily news, I'm curious what you've noted.

     On 7/5/11 3:46 AM, Zhixing Zhang wrote:

       if we want to write on redism, several leftists (sent by Utopia) were
       beat by the police in front of Shanghai NPC June 22 when submitting
       their appeals. This highlighted the state's unwillingness to see
       drastic redism. Meanwhile, this could very much upset redisms (though
       not many) who thought they are the closest supporter of CPC and the
       state. On the other hand, Mao Yushi was banned to be interviewed by
       VOA. CPC will want a very smooth celebration of its anniversary, of
       which stability is the priority task.

       Back to our discussion on legitimacy, I have a feeling that CPC is
       really trying to push forward stability in the recent years. Of course
       stability is always the priority for a state, and in particular for a
       giant authoritarian regime - so even pushing forward stability is much
       more of a reactive measure. But with the society being much more
       diversified, economic facing greater uncertainty, increasing social
       unrest, increasingly polarized ideology, ensuring CPC's role in
       maintaining stability - neither culture revolution - that we have seen
       CPC in its birthday further distance itself from CR, and Bo was
       reportedly blamed by core circle that his approach is nearly CP
       approach (from HK media, and we have to monitor it for confirmation),
       nor foreign interfere - something rightism would support and while
       catering to public, it could be acceptable only in limited way. It can
       be a consensus for the public that revolution and western intervention
       are both evils, and maintaining current stability is the only way to
       maintain the current status, something CPC's role lies on.

       On 04/07/2011 23:18, Sean Noonan wrote:

         This is also a pretty good CSM topic.  some college kids running a
         scam through Alibaba (chinese ebay), took in a good amount of
         money. 

         If we had some good 'redism' related incidents, maybe I could write
         on that, but we'd need some very concise points to make. 

         Let me know what you guys think of this and the surveillance camera
         topic.

         Jen, I assume that Trapwire is a competitor to Cisco, but I'm not
         sure.  I don't know if trapwire makes the actual cameras or just
         does the analysis.   I won't have real questions till morning. 

         On 7/2/11 11:00 AM, Kevin Stech wrote:

           Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in fraud probe

           02 July 2011 - 08H10 

           http://www.france24.com/en/20110702-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-fraud-probe

            

           AFP - Police have arrested 36 people in southeast China following
           an investigation into fraud on e-commerce site Alibaba.com and
           other websites that duped buyers out of more than $6 million.

            

           Alizila.com, Alibaba's corporate news website, reported earlier
           this week the suspects were detained in Fujian province's Putian
           city in April. John Spelich, the firm's spokesman, confirmed the
           report to AFP on Saturday.

            

           The people arrested allegedly operated a criminal gang that used
           fake IDs to open more than 100 "Gold Supplier" accounts on
           Alibaba.com. This designation is given to those certified as
           highly trusted suppliers by the firm.

            

           This allowed the suspects to pose as legitimate companies selling
           to overseas businesses that source goods through Alibaba.com.
           Police said the alleged scammers also used other international
           trading websites.

            

           Alibaba.com, based in the eastern city of Hangzhou, has grown into
           one of China's largest Internet companies by matching mainland
           manufacturers and wholesalers with buyers around the world.

            

           But its reputation took a hit in February when the firm announced
           the resignation of chief executive David Wei and head of
           operations Elvis Lee after fraud was uncovered on the site.

            

           Wei and Lee were not involved in the scams but resigned because
           they took responsibility for "systemic breakdowns" that allowed
           the fraud to happen, Alibaba said at the time.

            

           But according to the Alizila report, the fraud was "sometimes
           abetted by Alibaba.com employees." But Spelich said Saturday none
           of the 36 arrested worked at the company.

            

           He added the number of fraud complaints received by the website in
           June was down 70 percent from February after Alibaba toughened
           procedures and other security measures.

            

           The report said Alibaba had refunded $1.9 million to those who
           lost their money to the alleged scammers.

           Click here to find out more!

            

           Kevin Stech

           Director of Research | STRATFOR

           kevin.stech@stratfor.com

           +1 (512) 744-4086

            

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 15:59:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3102797_re-eastasia-os-china-csm-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3127429</id>
    <title>S3 - INDIA/CT/GV- Death toll from derailed train in India now at 60
</title>
    <description>   The red please [chris]

   [this news also has the Assam blast story that caused train derailment the
   end. Bad sunday for Indian railways AR)

   Death toll from derailed train in India now at 60
   AP
   http://news.yahoo.com/death-toll-derailed-train-india-now-60-034936343.html

   LUCKNOW, India (AP) a** Officials say the death toll from a train
   derailment in northern India has risen to 60 as more bodies are being
   pulled out of the mangled coaches.

   The senior army official in charge of rescue operations at the accident
   site says volunteers and soldiers have pulled out 60 bodies from 12
   coaches of the Kalka Mail, which went off the tracks Sunday afternoon.

   Col. Amarjit Dhillon told the Associated Press on Monday that many more
   bodies were trapped under the twisted coaches and soldiers were using gas
   cutters to slice through the metal.

   Rescue workers working through the night rescued many of the more than 100
   injured in the accident near the town of Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh state.

   THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information.
   AP's earlier story is below.

   FATEHPUR, India (AP) a** Rescuers searched for survivors in the wreckage
   of a packed express train that derailed in northern India on Sunday
   afternoon, killing at least 31 people, while officials said a second train
   derailment hundreds of miles (kilometers) to the northeast appeared to
   have been caused by a remote-controlled bomb.

   Rescuers were working to reach the second derailment, which occurred late
   Sunday night in a rural area of Assam state, injuring at least 100. The
   two railway incidents did not appear to be related.

   In the first crash, the Kalka Mail train was on its way to Kalka, in the
   foothills of the Himalayas, from Howrah, a station near Kolkata in eastern
   India, when 12 coaches and the engine jumped the tracks at Malwan station,
   near the town of Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh state, senior railway official
   A.K. Jain said.

   The cause of the derailment was not immediately clear but it appeared that
   the driver applied the emergency brakes, Jain said.

   At least 31 people were killed and rescue workers pulled at least 100
   injured passengers out of the wreckage, said Brij Lal, a state police
   official.

   Hours later, the second train derailed in the northeastern state of Assam,
   injuring at least 100 people, said S.K. Roy, a local magistrate.

   Local police suspect that a remote control-triggered bomb caused four
   coaches of the Gauhati-Puri Express to be thrown off the tracks in the
   town of Rangiya, about 30 miles (50 kilometers) west of the state's
   capital, Gauhati, Roy said.

   S. Hajong, a local railways spokesman, said two of the four coaches
   plunged into a pond and casualties are feared.

   Roy did not blame any rebel group and no one has taken responsibility for
   the attack so far. More than 30 groups in northeastern India have been
   fighting for decades for independence or wide autonomy in the region,
   about 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) east of New Delhi.

   It was the third train accident in India in the last four days. A train
   hit a bus at an unmanned railway crossing last Thursday, killing 35
   people.

   In Fatehpur, the accident site was a pile of twisted metal. At least one
   coach flew above the roof of another ahead of it and was dangling
   precariously, television footage showed. Another coach was thrown away
   from the rest of the train.

   The toll was likely to rise as rescuers made their way through the coaches
   and used gas cutters to cut through the mangled metal, Lal said. Rescue
   efforts continued late into the night.

   "We're trying to cut into the coaches and rescue those still trapped
   inside," Lal said.

   A senior railway official, H.C. Joshi, told CNN-IBN news channel that
   rescuers were struggling to free at least five people pinned under the
   wreckage of one of the worst-damaged coaches.

   Medical personnel rushed to the area, about 75 miles (120 kilometers)
   southeast of Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh state.

   Army helicopters were ferrying the most seriously injured victims to
   hospitals and 30 army engineers had joined the rescue efforts, Lal said.

   TV stations showed local residents helping injured passengers away from
   the train, several in makeshift stretchers, and breaking the windows of
   coaches to help those trapped inside.

   Prime Minister Manmohan Singh expressed "deep sorrow and shock" at the
   loss of lives. The Railways Ministry announced compensation of 500,000
   rupees ($11,000) for the families of those killed in the accident.

   The number of passengers on board the Kalka Mail a** named for its past
   use in the postal service a** was not known. Express trains normally carry
   about 1,000 people and travel at speeds of 60-80 miles (100-130
   kilometers) per hour.

   India's railroad network is one of the largest in the world and carries
   about 14 million passengers a day. Accidents are common, with most blamed
   on poor maintenance and human error.

   --
   Animesh

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   Australia Mobile: 0423372241
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-11 06:52:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-17 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3127429_s3-india-ct-gv-death-toll-from-derailed-train-in-india-now.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3136020</id>
    <title>S3 - INDIA/CT/GV- Death toll from derailed train in India now at 60
</title>
    <description>   The red please [chris]

   [this news also has the Assam blast story that caused train derailment the
   end. Bad sunday for Indian railways AR)

   Death toll from derailed train in India now at 60
   AP
   http://news.yahoo.com/death-toll-derailed-train-india-now-60-034936343.html

   LUCKNOW, India (AP) a** Officials say the death toll from a train
   derailment in northern India has risen to 60 as more bodies are being
   pulled out of the mangled coaches.

   The senior army official in charge of rescue operations at the accident
   site says volunteers and soldiers have pulled out 60 bodies from 12
   coaches of the Kalka Mail, which went off the tracks Sunday afternoon.

   Col. Amarjit Dhillon told the Associated Press on Monday that many more
   bodies were trapped under the twisted coaches and soldiers were using gas
   cutters to slice through the metal.

   Rescue workers working through the night rescued many of the more than 100
   injured in the accident near the town of Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh state.

   THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information.
   AP's earlier story is below.

   FATEHPUR, India (AP) a** Rescuers searched for survivors in the wreckage
   of a packed express train that derailed in northern India on Sunday
   afternoon, killing at least 31 people, while officials said a second train
   derailment hundreds of miles (kilometers) to the northeast appeared to
   have been caused by a remote-controlled bomb.

   Rescuers were working to reach the second derailment, which occurred late
   Sunday night in a rural area of Assam state, injuring at least 100. The
   two railway incidents did not appear to be related.

   In the first crash, the Kalka Mail train was on its way to Kalka, in the
   foothills of the Himalayas, from Howrah, a station near Kolkata in eastern
   India, when 12 coaches and the engine jumped the tracks at Malwan station,
   near the town of Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh state, senior railway official
   A.K. Jain said.

   The cause of the derailment was not immediately clear but it appeared that
   the driver applied the emergency brakes, Jain said.

   At least 31 people were killed and rescue workers pulled at least 100
   injured passengers out of the wreckage, said Brij Lal, a state police
   official.

   Hours later, the second train derailed in the northeastern state of Assam,
   injuring at least 100 people, said S.K. Roy, a local magistrate.

   Local police suspect that a remote control-triggered bomb caused four
   coaches of the Gauhati-Puri Express to be thrown off the tracks in the
   town of Rangiya, about 30 miles (50 kilometers) west of the state's
   capital, Gauhati, Roy said.

   S. Hajong, a local railways spokesman, said two of the four coaches
   plunged into a pond and casualties are feared.

   Roy did not blame any rebel group and no one has taken responsibility for
   the attack so far. More than 30 groups in northeastern India have been
   fighting for decades for independence or wide autonomy in the region,
   about 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) east of New Delhi.

   It was the third train accident in India in the last four days. A train
   hit a bus at an unmanned railway crossing last Thursday, killing 35
   people.

   In Fatehpur, the accident site was a pile of twisted metal. At least one
   coach flew above the roof of another ahead of it and was dangling
   precariously, television footage showed. Another coach was thrown away
   from the rest of the train.

   The toll was likely to rise as rescuers made their way through the coaches
   and used gas cutters to cut through the mangled metal, Lal said. Rescue
   efforts continued late into the night.

   "We're trying to cut into the coaches and rescue those still trapped
   inside," Lal said.

   A senior railway official, H.C. Joshi, told CNN-IBN news channel that
   rescuers were struggling to free at least five people pinned under the
   wreckage of one of the worst-damaged coaches.

   Medical personnel rushed to the area, about 75 miles (120 kilometers)
   southeast of Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh state.

   Army helicopters were ferrying the most seriously injured victims to
   hospitals and 30 army engineers had joined the rescue efforts, Lal said.

   TV stations showed local residents helping injured passengers away from
   the train, several in makeshift stretchers, and breaking the windows of
   coaches to help those trapped inside.

   Prime Minister Manmohan Singh expressed "deep sorrow and shock" at the
   loss of lives. The Railways Ministry announced compensation of 500,000
   rupees ($11,000) for the families of those killed in the accident.

   The number of passengers on board the Kalka Mail a** named for its past
   use in the postal service a** was not known. Express trains normally carry
   about 1,000 people and travel at speeds of 60-80 miles (100-130
   kilometers) per hour.

   India's railroad network is one of the largest in the world and carries
   about 14 million passengers a day. Accidents are common, with most blamed
   on poor maintenance and human error.

   --
   Animesh

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   Australia Mobile: 0423372241
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-11 06:52:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-17 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3136020_s3-india-ct-gv-death-toll-from-derailed-train-in-india-now.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3137565</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [CT] [OS] CHINA/CSM - Alibaba says China police
 arrest 36 in fraud probe
</title>
    <description>   I agree with Alibaba and had flagged that too.  I didn't see the mention
   of trapwire in the story on Cisco.  Maybe I missed it.  Yes, keep me
   posted on any questions and I'll see what my contact can dig up.

   On 7/4/11 11:18 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     This is also a pretty good CSM topic.  some college kids running a scam
     through Alibaba (chinese ebay), took in a good amount of money. 

     If we had some good 'redism' related incidents, maybe I could write on
     that, but we'd need some very concise points to make. 

     Let me know what you guys think of this and the surveillance camera
     topic.

     Jen, I assume that Trapwire is a competitor to Cisco, but I'm not sure. 
     I don't know if trapwire makes the actual cameras or just does the
     analysis.   I won't have real questions till morning. 

     On 7/2/11 11:00 AM, Kevin Stech wrote:

       Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in fraud probe

       02 July 2011 - 08H10 

       http://www.france24.com/en/20110702-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-fraud-probe

        

       AFP - Police have arrested 36 people in southeast China following an
       investigation into fraud on e-commerce site Alibaba.com and other
       websites that duped buyers out of more than $6 million.

        

       Alizila.com, Alibaba's corporate news website, reported earlier this
       week the suspects were detained in Fujian province's Putian city in
       April. John Spelich, the firm's spokesman, confirmed the report to AFP
       on Saturday.

        

       The people arrested allegedly operated a criminal gang that used fake
       IDs to open more than 100 "Gold Supplier" accounts on Alibaba.com.
       This designation is given to those certified as highly trusted
       suppliers by the firm.

        

       This allowed the suspects to pose as legitimate companies selling to
       overseas businesses that source goods through Alibaba.com. Police said
       the alleged scammers also used other international trading websites.

        

       Alibaba.com, based in the eastern city of Hangzhou, has grown into one
       of China's largest Internet companies by matching mainland
       manufacturers and wholesalers with buyers around the world.

        

       But its reputation took a hit in February when the firm announced the
       resignation of chief executive David Wei and head of operations Elvis
       Lee after fraud was uncovered on the site.

        

       Wei and Lee were not involved in the scams but resigned because they
       took responsibility for "systemic breakdowns" that allowed the fraud
       to happen, Alibaba said at the time.

        

       But according to the Alizila report, the fraud was "sometimes abetted
       by Alibaba.com employees." But Spelich said Saturday none of the 36
       arrested worked at the company.

        

       He added the number of fraud complaints received by the website in
       June was down 70 percent from February after Alibaba toughened
       procedures and other security measures.

        

       The report said Alibaba had refunded $1.9 million to those who lost
       their money to the alleged scammers.

       Click here to find out more!

        

       Kevin Stech

       Director of Research | STRATFOR

       kevin.stech@stratfor.com

       +1 (512) 744-4086

        

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 07:22:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3137565_re-eastasia-ct-os-china-csm-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3167279</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [OS] CHINA/CSM - Alibaba says China police arrest 36
 in fraud probe
</title>
    <description>   Could you elaborate a bit on what you mean when you say they have
   increased their focus on stability?  You list out many very good reasons
   for them to do so, but as someone who has only (relatively) recently been
   following Chinese daily news, I'm curious what you've noted.

   On 7/5/11 3:46 AM, Zhixing Zhang wrote:

     if we want to write on redism, several leftists (sent by Utopia) were
     beat by the police in front of Shanghai NPC June 22 when submitting
     their appeals. This highlighted the state's unwillingness to see drastic
     redism. Meanwhile, this could very much upset redisms (though not many)
     who thought they are the closest supporter of CPC and the state. On the
     other hand, Mao Yushi was banned to be interviewed by VOA. CPC will want
     a very smooth celebration of its anniversary, of which stability is the
     priority task.

     Back to our discussion on legitimacy, I have a feeling that CPC is
     really trying to push forward stability in the recent years. Of course
     stability is always the priority for a state, and in particular for a
     giant authoritarian regime - so even pushing forward stability is much
     more of a reactive measure. But with the society being much more
     diversified, economic facing greater uncertainty, increasing social
     unrest, increasingly polarized ideology, ensuring CPC's role in
     maintaining stability - neither culture revolution - that we have seen
     CPC in its birthday further distance itself from CR, and Bo was
     reportedly blamed by core circle that his approach is nearly CP approach
     (from HK media, and we have to monitor it for confirmation), nor foreign
     interfere - something rightism would support and while catering to
     public, it could be acceptable only in limited way. It can be a
     consensus for the public that revolution and western intervention are
     both evils, and maintaining current stability is the only way to
     maintain the current status, something CPC's role lies on.

     On 04/07/2011 23:18, Sean Noonan wrote:

       This is also a pretty good CSM topic.  some college kids running a
       scam through Alibaba (chinese ebay), took in a good amount of money. 

       If we had some good 'redism' related incidents, maybe I could write on
       that, but we'd need some very concise points to make. 

       Let me know what you guys think of this and the surveillance camera
       topic.

       Jen, I assume that Trapwire is a competitor to Cisco, but I'm not
       sure.  I don't know if trapwire makes the actual cameras or just does
       the analysis.   I won't have real questions till morning. 

       On 7/2/11 11:00 AM, Kevin Stech wrote:

         Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in fraud probe

         02 July 2011 - 08H10 

         http://www.france24.com/en/20110702-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-fraud-probe

          

         AFP - Police have arrested 36 people in southeast China following an
         investigation into fraud on e-commerce site Alibaba.com and other
         websites that duped buyers out of more than $6 million.

          

         Alizila.com, Alibaba's corporate news website, reported earlier this
         week the suspects were detained in Fujian province's Putian city in
         April. John Spelich, the firm's spokesman, confirmed the report to
         AFP on Saturday.

          

         The people arrested allegedly operated a criminal gang that used
         fake IDs to open more than 100 "Gold Supplier" accounts on
         Alibaba.com. This designation is given to those certified as highly
         trusted suppliers by the firm.

          

         This allowed the suspects to pose as legitimate companies selling to
         overseas businesses that source goods through Alibaba.com. Police
         said the alleged scammers also used other international trading
         websites.

          

         Alibaba.com, based in the eastern city of Hangzhou, has grown into
         one of China's largest Internet companies by matching mainland
         manufacturers and wholesalers with buyers around the world.

          

         But its reputation took a hit in February when the firm announced
         the resignation of chief executive David Wei and head of operations
         Elvis Lee after fraud was uncovered on the site.

          

         Wei and Lee were not involved in the scams but resigned because they
         took responsibility for "systemic breakdowns" that allowed the fraud
         to happen, Alibaba said at the time.

          

         But according to the Alizila report, the fraud was "sometimes
         abetted by Alibaba.com employees." But Spelich said Saturday none of
         the 36 arrested worked at the company.

          

         He added the number of fraud complaints received by the website in
         June was down 70 percent from February after Alibaba toughened
         procedures and other security measures.

          

         The report said Alibaba had refunded $1.9 million to those who lost
         their money to the alleged scammers.

         Click here to find out more!

          

         Kevin Stech

         Director of Research | STRATFOR

         kevin.stech@stratfor.com

         +1 (512) 744-4086

          

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 15:25:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3167279_re-eastasia-os-china-csm-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>melissa.taylor@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3179340</id>
    <title>Re: PS - source list
</title>
    <description>   On 12/9/11 8:26 AM, Allison Fedirka wrote:

     Hey Renato,

     So 10 Texas time works for Karen.  Can you send us a copy of that list
     between 9 and 930 today so we have time to read it before we meet? 
     Thanks!

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       Hey,

       What time would you two be able to run through real quickly Renato's
       potential source list.  It'd be to know what's available and figure
       out how that coincides with our interests/priorities.  It shouldn't
       take too much time - we could skpe or call or group IM.  Does 10am
       Texas time work?  We'd surely be done before blue sky

     --
     Allison Fedirka
     South America Correspondent
     STRATFOR
     US Cell: +1.512.496.3466 | Brazil Cell: +55.11.9343.7752
     www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 Renato Whitaker
 LATAM Analyst
</description>
    <date>2011-12-09 16:16:27</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-26 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3179340_re-ps-source-list-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>karen.hooper@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>allison.fedirka@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>renato.whitaker@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/139/139758_Potential Sources.docx</path><size>147849</size><md5></md5><sha1>0376e7cdc81f5d4c765b07c0732edbc76d92e3d1</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3210574</id>
    <title>Fwd: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
</title>
    <description>   Ryan Sims
   Global Intelligence
   STRATFOR
   T: 512-744-4087
   F: 512-744-0570
   ryan.sims@stratfor.com
   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
     Date: June 16, 2011 1:04:08 PM CDT
     To: STRATFOR &lt;service@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: RE: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
     Kudos*a great explanation for those who don't understand or appreciate
     the efforts that go into a real intel op*as opposed to the Hollywood BS
     everyone seems to expect.
      
     I remind people all the time that we got the courier's name back in '03
     -- and thank goodness didn't take the typical "cuff 'em and drag him in"
     approach many had advocated. We stayed patient and threw real analytical
     support into this one. Took some time -- but the patient oriental
     approach usually pays bigger dividends.  M
      
     From: STRATFOR [mailto:mail@response.stratfor.com] 
     Sent: Thursday, June 16, 2011 11:45 AM
     To: Michael Maness
     Subject: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
      

View on Mobile Phone | Read the online version.                                  

      

     STRATFOR Weekly Intelligence Update                                      
     Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier: Special Edition of Above the        
     Tearline                                                                 
     The weekly Above the Tearline video series is part of our members-only   
     content. We hope you enjoy this exclusive chance to access it free.      
                                                                              
     [IMG]                                                                    
     Watch this exclusive edition of Above the Tearline                       
                                                                              
             Above the Tearline: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier          
                                                                              
                                                                              
                                                                              
     Vice President of Intelligence Fred Burton examines the sophisticated    
     surveillance operation that led to the raid on Osama bin Laden*s safe    
     house in Pakistan. Click here to view.                                   
     Save on annual memberships                                               
     Connect with usTwitterFacebookYoutubeSTRATFOR Mobile                     
     New to STRATFOR? Get these free intel reports emailed to you. If you did 
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</description>
    <date>2011-06-16 20:08:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3210574_fwd-surveillance-of-bin-laden-s-courier-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>service@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>responses@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3211641</id>
    <title>Sourcing in Brazil
</title>
    <description>   Hey Renato,

   This is a follow up from our chat this afternoon.  It sounds like you're
   already met some interesting people with whom you can build relationships
   and use a military sources.  Remember if you do get chatty with them to
   pass all that through insight (even if you don't agree with what they
   say).  Analysts and discard the information, but just having it also helps
   gives us an idea of what people are thinking and how (regardless if it's
   correct).

   So for moving forward I figured we can do two things.  First, make a list
   of the people you know (or your family can introduce you to) that could be
   potential sources or introduce us to sources.  They can be good for
   information on Brazil or really any part of the world. For example Jen
   sent in some insight about the Vale ship sinking in Rio from China.  There
   are great Ven sources who are profs from Europe. So don't restrict your
   imagination.  Once you have this list, identify what city the person is
   located and their areas of possible knowledge/network.  Send this list to
   me and Karen.  I can help you develop strategies on how to approach them
   and Karen can help prioritize the interest level.  Below is a list of
   interest areas I sent to Folha; it's a good thing for us to follow
   internally for Brazil as well.  This is a short term thing that you can
   hopefully knock out this week or early next.

   Also, on a specific level, I would encourage you to see if there is any
   way you can get involved in the oil sector in Rio.  I know it's easier
   said than done but you are in the perfect place for that.  Perhaps
   Petropras has public talks, RJ state meetings on royalties for the public,
   ANP seminars whatever.  We can also pick a particular target or two and
   try to craft a meeting.   This is a medium range ambition - takes time to
   ID places, find events and/or set up meetings.

   Also, what are your holiday, summer vacation travel plans. If we can maybe
   schedule a week of meetings in Rio (or even Brasilia) sometime after the
   holidays, that would be great.  First we need to see about you and me
   being in the same place at the same time (I"ll bein Austin for Jan).  Then
   we need to see when people will be in Brazil.  Then plan who we want to
   meet.  Should be fun.  This last point is a longer term projects.

   Hope you're as excited as I am !!!!!

   ECONOMY
   - Brazil's biggest concerns regarding the economic downturn and preferred
   policies to confront it
   - Relationship between the government and the private sector
   - Health of the manufacturing sector
   - Relationship between Vale and China
    - Inflows of Chinese investment/goods and their success/failure
   - Any shifts in regulation that impact foreign investment  
   - Trade disputes with Argentina
   - Updates on major projects being funded by BNDES; political objectives of
   BNDES

   PRE-SALT
   - Any labor issues with Petrobras workers
   - New investment plans in pre-salt
   - Updates on Petrobras' access to capital  and plans to deal with economic
   slow-down
   INFRASTRUCTURE
   - Port modernization projects
   - Transportation networks in the interior
   - Airport expansion, modernization projects

   DEFENSE
   - Military exercises along the border
   - Treaties, cooperation and dialog with border countries to coordinate
   anti-drug fight
   - Shifts in military spending

   BRAZILIAN POLITICS
   - Jan cabinet reshuffle, important votes
   - Shifts in Dilma's levels of political support
   - Developments in major laws going through the legislature, especially
   regulatory
   --
   Allison Fedirka
   South America Correspondent
   STRATFOR
   US Cell: +1.512.496.3466 A| Brazil Cell: +55.11.9343.7752
   www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-12-07 21:09:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-26 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3211641_sourcing-in-brazil-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>allison.fedirka@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>karen.hooper@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>renato.whitaker@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3231668</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [CT] Fwd: [OS] CHINA/CSM/CT- Cisco Poised to Help
	China Keep an Eye on Its	Citizens
</title>
    <description>   I'm sitting here with a cisco guy.  What is the trapwire tech?  He's not
   involved with this project but let me know if there are any ques and I'll
   see what he can find out.

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Jul 4, 2011, at 8:55 PM, Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

     Maybe with talk of Trapwire technology and such we can provide some
     insight on this.  The addition of the cameras is not new, I think i had
     it in the bullets sometime earlier this year. 

     -------- Original Message --------

      Subject: [OS] CHINA/CSM/CT- Cisco Poised to Help China Keep an Eye on   
               Its Citizens                                                   
         Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2011 22:52:54 -0500                                
         From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;                         
     Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                  
           To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                  

         * JULY 5, 2011

     Censorship Inc.
     Cisco Poised to Help China Keep an Eye on Its Citizens
     Read more:
     http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304778304576377141077267316.html#ixzz1RCQsajlK
     By LORETTA CHAO in Beijing and DON CLARK in San Francisco
     [CISCO] Getty Images

     Cameras in Beijing's Tiananmen Square. U.S. firms can sell surveillance
     gear in China, but not equipment that is used only for crime control.

     Western companies including Cisco Systems Inc. are poised to help build
     an ambitious new surveillance project in Chinaa**a citywide network of
     as many as 500,000 cameras that officials say will prevent crime but
     that human-rights advocates warn could target political dissent.
     [CISCO_p1]

     The system, being built in the city of Chongqing over the next two to
     three years, is among the largest and most sophisticated
     video-surveillance projects of its kind in China, and perhaps the world.
     Dubbed "Peaceful Chongqing," it is planned to cover a half-million
     intersections, neighborhoods and parks over nearly 400 square miles, an
     area more than 25% larger than New York City.

     The project sheds light on how Western tech companies sell their wares
     in China, the Middle East and other places where there is potential for
     the gear to be used for political purposes and not just safety. The
     products range from Internet-censoring software to sophisticated
     networking gear. China in particular has drawn criticism for treating
     political dissent as a crime and has a track record of using technology
     to suppress it.

     An examination of the Peaceful Chongqing project by The Wall Street
     Journal shows Cisco is expected to supply networking equipment that is
     essential to operating large and complicated surveillance systems,
     according to people familiar with the deal.

     The U.S. has prohibited export of crime-control products to China (for
     instance, fingerprinting equipment) ever since Beijing's deadly 1989
     Tiananmen Square crackdown. But the U.S. restrictions don't prohibit
     sale of technologies such as cameras that can be used in many waysa**to
     tame, say, either traffic jams or democracy marches. This loophole
     troubles some critics. There is no indication that Cisco is selling
     products customized for crime control.
     More

         * Cisco Faces Lawsuits, Criticism Over Past China Activities

     Western companies' pursuit of sales in China underscores a fundamental
     question for businesses and policy makers alike: Should companies be
     held accountable if foreign governments use their products for political
     suppression?

     Cisco was brought in to the Chongqing project by Chinese security
     company Hikvision Digital Technology Co., the project's main contractor,
     Hikvision officials and others say. It is unclear whether Cisco's
     participation has been finalized, although one person familiar with the
     matter says it is close.

     Officials at Cisco, based in San Jose, Calif., declined to discuss its
     possible involvement in detail. A company spokesman stressed that Cisco
     "hasn't sold video cameras or video-surveillance solutions in any of our
     public infrastructure projects in China."

     The company has previously saida**including in a June blog post by
     Cisco's general counsel, Mark Chandlera**that the company strictly
     abides by the Tiananmen export controls and doesn't supply any gear to
     China that is "customized in any way" to facilitate repressive uses.

     View Full Image
     CISCO_jmp
     CISCO_jmp
     CISCO_jmp

     Cisco is the world's biggest maker of networking equipment, which
     includes routing and switching systems that send data between computers
     and connect systems to the Internet. The company has stirred controversy
     in the past for its China dealings.

     The Chongqing project is also attracting interest from other U.S.
     companies, including Alabama software maker Intergraph Corp.
     Hewlett-Packard Co. also expects to bid on part of the project,
     according to a senior H-P executive.

     The people familiar with the matter said H-P may be looking to supply
     servers or storage equipment for Peaceful Chongqing.

     Asked about concerns about political use of the system, Todd Bradley, an
     executive vice president who oversees H-P's China strategy, said in an
     interview last week in China, "We take them at their word as to the
     usage." He added, "It's not my job to really understand what they're
     going to use it for. Our job is to respond to the bid that they've
     made."
     Censorship Inc.

         * Mideast Uses Western Tools to Battle the Skype Rebellion 6/1/2011
         * Iran Vows to Unplug Internet 5/28/2011
         * U.S. Products Help Block Mideast Web 3/28/2011

     Another possible participant in the Chongqing project is Intergraph, a
     Huntsville, Ala., company that made a bid through Cisco to provide
     customized software for the effort, said Bob Scott, head of Intergraph's
     security group. It is unclear if the company, a unit of Sweden's Hexagon
     AB, will ultimately be hired.

     Although sale of surveillance technology to repressive nations is
     permissible, some critics have harsh words for companies that do so.
     "The business community is only hearing what it wants to hear and
     disregarding the rest," said Rep. Frank Wolf, a Virginia Republican who
     co-chairs the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, a nonpartisan rights
     group made up of members of Congress.

     Chongqing, a sprawling metropolis in southwestern China, is one of the
     most populous cities in the nation with an urban population of at least
     12 million. The hillside Yangtze River port, famous for spicy hot-pot
     and often covered in fog, was China's capital from 1938 to 1945. Today,
     it is being developed as a gateway to the country's western hinterland.

     Chongqing has gained prominence the past two years because of its
     Communist Party chief, Bo Xilai, a rising political star who has led a
     controversial crackdown on organized crime that some lawyers have
     criticized for what they say are violations of legal due process.

     View Full Image
     CISCO
     Getty Images

     Chongqing's party chief, Bo Xilai, led a controversial crime crackdown.
     CISCO
     CISCO

     Mr. Bo declined to comment. He is expected to become one of China's top
     leaders next year by being appointed to China's Politburo Standing
     Committee, the nation's top decision-making body.

     Chongqing's government has said it plans to invest more than $800
     million of its own in building the Peaceful Chongqing system. Another
     $1.6 billion is coming from other, unspecified sources, the city has
     said. Hikvision's president, Hu Yangzhong, said in an interview that
     government funds would go toward building the central surveillance
     network and installing a portion of the cameras, while more cameras
     would be installed by owners of residences, office buildings and
     othersa**all of which would be linked to the network.

     Video-surveillance systems can serve many purposes and are routinely
     used for benign purposes by cities world-wide to fight crime and ease
     traffic. Still, civil libertarians raise concerns including in the U.S.
     that the technology can invade privacy and is poorly regulated.

     Human-rights advocates say Chinese police have used surveillance footage
     to identify people in political protests. Jailed Chinese artist-activist
     Ai Weiwei, who was released last month, complained before he was
     apprehended on April 3 that police were using cameras to monitor him.

     Corinna-Barbara Francis, a researcher at Amnesty International, said
     surveillance footage has been used to identify and apprehend peaceful
     protesters in China, including in Xinjiang and Tibet. "In China there's
     ample evidence that they use" video surveillance "to crack down and then
     criminalize activity which should not be criminalized," Ms. Francis
     said.

     The Chongqing government declined to comment, as did China's Ministry of
     Public Security and the State Council Information Office. Chinese
     leaders have long argued that maintaining social stability and economic
     growth takes precedence over political rights.

     Hikvision's president, Mr. Hu, said he believes the project's goal is to
     cut crime, not target political dissidents. "China has a very serious
     public-security problem," he said in an interview last week. He blamed
     an epidemic of robbery and other crimes on the flood of poor migrants
     into China's cities and a growing wealth gap.

     Mr. Hu said Chongqing's new surveillance system will be tied in to an
     information network that Cisco is already building in the city, where
     Cisco has announced a high-profile alliance under a program it calls
     Smart+Connected Communitiesa**an initiative under which Cisco consults
     with governments around the world to use technology to tackle civic
     problems such as transportation, healthcare and education.

     According to the Chongqing government's website, Cisco Chief Executive
     John Chambers told the city's mayor in a meeting last year that he hoped
     the Smart+Connected project could create a "model in Chongqing which can
     be popularized in China."

     Executives at Western companies say they must weigh the possibility that
     technology could be misused against the business risks of missing out on
     a lucrative market. "We do have concerns," said Intergraph's Mr. Scott.
     "On the other hand, we want to do business there," he said, noting that
     the company's software is also used for environmental and other projects
     in China.

     "We're just the technology platform," he said, adding that it is the
     responsibility of the buyers "to meet and adhere to laws and policies"
     of their jurisdictions. Ultimately, Intergraph has "to manage the risk
     against the gain."

     In an April interview with the Journal, Bill Stuntz, general manager of
     Cisco's physical-security business, said Cisco gives careful
     consideration to how its products are used in China and doesn't want
     them to be used for repressive purposes. He declined to discuss specific
     projects in China but noted that sales of security equipment there have
     been expanding rapidly. He said Cisco is providing products that include
     networking equipment and servers along with support for some large
     video-surveillance systems, though not video cameras.

     China has become the fastest growing market for surveillance equipment,
     although it isn't yet the biggest, according to IMS Research, a U.K.
     firm that studies the market. The surveillance markets in the U.S. and
     Europe are growing at single-digit rates while surveillance-related
     revenue in China is growing at 23% a year. Surveillance-equipment sales
     alone, not including networking gear or software, totaled $1.7 billion
     last year.

     Chongqing's government says on its website that its current surveillance
     system is outdated, allowing police to directly tap into just 15,000 of
     the total 300,000 cameras. It wants the new system to be among the
     world's most advanced.

     Mr. Scott of Intergraph says Chongqing wants not only to increase camera
     count, but also to have video managed and delivered to dozens of police
     precincts and other organizations. The project presents challenges "that
     have not really been done anywhere else in the world," he said.

     Mr. Scott said his company spent three years developing software that
     enables multiple agencies to control cameras and also analyzes video
     feeds for unusual situations like fires or the formation of crowds.

     The number of surveillance cameras in Chinese cities including Chongqing
     appears to dwarf that of other cities around the world, though
     comparisons are tough because cities generally don't disclose their
     camera counts.

     A 2008 report by the state-run Xinhua news agency said Beijing had some
     280,000 cameras in its system. By comparison, privacy advocates in the
     U.S., including the American Civil Liberties Union, estimate Chicago has
     10,000 cameras. The New York Civil Liberties Union estimated in 2009
     that there were 8,000 cameras in New York.
     a**Kersten Zhang, Yoli Zhang, Jason Dean and Cari Tuna contributed to
     this article.

     Write to Loretta Chao at loretta.chao@wsj.com and Don Clark at
     don.clark@wsj.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 06:03:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3231668_re-eastasia-ct-fwd-os-china-csm-ct-cisco-poised-to-help.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>richmond@core.stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3312547</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-11 13:59:34</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3312547_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3316669</id>
    <title>Re: [latam] Fwd: CUBA/VENEZUELA/CT-Nuevo Herald obtains
 intelligence document showing Cuban surveillance of opposition figures
</title>
    <description>   Somewhere in-between, definitely. Then again, most intelligence services
   fall in between those two choices! :) Yes, Chavez most decidedly ok'd the
   endeavor. The current intelligence service is called the SEBIN (Servicio
   de Inteligencia Bolivariano). The one referred to in the article is DIM
   (Direccion de Inteligencia Militar) which is separate, that's military
   intelligence, but I'm pretty sure that now they share assets and people.
   The Venezuelan intelligence capacities received a pretty huge boost after
   Chavez allied himself with Cuba because Cuba provided tons of training,
   personnel and intelligence equipment. That's why Chavez is so indebted to
   Cuba...his regime more or less can see plots coming and can keep tabs on
   the opposition because of the sheer amount of Cubans involved in
   intelligence-gathering. The intelligence collecting is also pretty open,
   as evidenced by the article, when the former interior minister openly
   showed intercepted emails at press conferences. The key thing to remember
   is that SEBIN would never have been so effective (domestically at least)
   had it not been for the Cubans. If the Cubans ever choose to pull
   cooperation, Chavez better grow some intelligence capabilities quick,
   because otherwise he'll get screwed.

   -----------------
   Reginald Thompson

   Cell: (011) 504 8990-7741

   OSINT
   Stratfor

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Renato Whitaker" &lt;renato.whitaker@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "LatAm AOR" &lt;latam@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, June 16, 2011 6:42:14 PM
   Subject: Re: [latam] Fwd: CUBA/VENEZUELA/CT-Nuevo Herald obtains
   intelligence document showing Cuban surveillance of opposition figures

   I've heard a story or two about the Cuban intelligence service. On a scale
   of the Namibian Intelligence Service to the CIA, how good are they?

   Also, seems that those being followed are mostly opposition people, so
   safe to say Chavez ok'd the endevour?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Reginald Thompson" &lt;reginald.thompson@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "LatAm AOR" &lt;latam@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, June 16, 2011 8:11:49 PM
   Subject: [latam] Fwd: CUBA/VENEZUELA/CT-Nuevo Herald obtains intelligence
   document showing Cuban surveillance of opposition figures

   Cubanos realizan espionaje digital en Venezuela

   http://www.elnuevoherald.com/2011/06/15/962107/cubanos-realizan-espionaje-digital.html

   6.16.11

   Los correos electrA^3nicos de miles de venezolanos en su paAs y en Miami
   son leAdos por especialistas de la inteligencia cubana, que tienen acceso
   a las direcciones, claves secretas y hasta los nA-omeros de Protocolo de
   Internet (IP) de las computadoras, segA-on se desprende de una lista de la
   DirecciA^3n de Inteligencia Militar (DIM) de Venezuela obtenida por El
   Nuevo Herald.

   Una parte significativa de los correos intervenidos pertenecen a
   activistas, periodistas, militares, diplomA!ticos venezolanos en el
   extranjero y conocidos lAderes de oposiciA^3n.

   La lista, elaborada entre el 2005 y el 2006, contiene los correos
   electrA^3nicos con sus respectivas claves secretas de prominentes
   dirigentes polAticos, incluyendo al candidato presidencial Antonio
   Ledezma, el ex gobernador Osvaldo Alvarez Paz y la diputada MarAa Corina
   Machado.

   TambiA(c)n aparecen los correos de militares retirados y personalidades
   venezolanas en Miami.

   a**Esto es normal. Ellos controlan todo esoa**, dijo el ex comisario de la
   antigua DirecciA^3n de Servicios de Inteligencia y PrevenciA^3n (DISIP),
   Johan PeA+-a, quien reside en Miami. a**Estas operaciones son realizadas
   desde las instalaciones de la DIM, pero son completamente controladas por
   cubanosa**.

   La lista contiene algunas direcciones electrA^3nicas que ya han sido
   cambiadas por sus dueA+-os. Sin embargo, seA+-alA^3 PeA+-a, la base de
   datos es actualizada con regularidad y la informaciA^3n en manos de los
   organismos de inteligencia bajo el control de los gobiernos de Caracas y
   La Habana es hoy en dAa mucho mayor de lo que aparece en la lista.

   El nombre del periodista venezolano Rafael Poleo, dueA+-o del diario El
   Nuevo PaAs y de la revista Zeta, no estA! en el listado obtenido por El
   Nuevo Herald, pero un correo electrA^3nico dirigido a su hija, Patricia
   Poleo, fue interceptado y publicado recientemente en un sitio de internet
   oficialista.

   a**Esto es normal [a*|]. En Venezuela, todos los correos electrA^3nicos de
   la oposiciA^3n estA!n siendo monitoreados por el gobiernoa**, comentA^3
   Poleo, quien dijo haber sido informado sobre esta situaciA^3n por la
   a**mejor fuente venezolanaa**.

   PeA+-a seA+-alA^3 que aA-on cuando estas actividades inicialmente fueron
   realizadas por integrantes de la DIM, en los A-oltimos aA+-os la tarea ha
   quedado concentrada en manos de agentes cubanos.

   Estas operaciones son realizadas actualmente con la mA!s costosa y moderna
   tecnologAa y estA!n bajo el absoluto control del personal de La Habana.

   a**Es obviamente un tema bastante delicado, incluso dentro del propio
   gobierno, que esta labor estA(c) siendo manejada por cubanos, pero la
   verdad es que funcionarios de inteligencia venezolanos no tienen acceso a
   los pisos donde se tienen estos equiposa**, revelA^3.

   AA+-adiA^3 que la decisiA^3n de traspasar esta tarea a los agentes de La
   Habana habrAa nacido de la determinaciA^3n de que el personal venezolano
   era incapaz de mantener secreta la informaciA^3n recaudada.

   Un gran nA-omero de los correos electrA^3nicos que aparecen en la lista
   fueron registrados por sus dueA+-os en populares servicios de internet
   como Yahoo, Hotmail y Gmail.

   No todos los correos electrA^3nicos que aparecen estA!n acompaA+-ados con
   el respectivo nA-omero de IP de las computadoras de sus dueA+-os, pero
   cientos de ellos sA, lo cual facilita un mejor espionaje electrA^3nico.

   Patricia Andrade, presidenta de la Venezuela Awareness Foundation, en
   Miami, aparece en la lista.

   La organizaciA^3n que encabeza vela por los derechos humanos dentro del
   paAs petrolero y sus correos electrA^3nicos fueron interceptados en varias
   ocasiones por funcionarios del gobierno de Hugo ChA!vez, quienes trataron
   de hacer uso de la informaciA^3n recogida con el fin de desacreditarla.

   En el 2006, esos esfuerzos fueron encabezados por el entonces ministro de
   Interior y Justicia, Jesse ChacA^3n, quien admitiA^3 pA-oblicamente que la
   organizaciA^3n era blanco de espionaje electrA^3nico.

   a**El propio ChacA^3n dijo en una rueda de prensa que tenAa todos los
   correros electrA^3nicos interceptados y, no contento con eso, se los
   mostrA^3 a los periodistasa**, dijo Andrade.

   El intento fue torpe, comentA^3 Andrade al destacar que el ministro estaba
   brindando muestras de violaciones a los derechos civiles de los
   venezolanos.

   El listado de correos intervenidos tambiA(c)n incluye a los del Secretario
   Ejecutivo de la Mesa de Unidad DemocrA!tica (MUD), en Miami, Pedro Mena,
   quien dijo no estar sorprendido por el hecho.

   a**Hemos sido vActimas de varios intentos del gobierno por infiltrar
   nuestras actividadesa**, comentA^3 Mena. a**No es de extraA+-ar que
   estemos en esa lista, es uno de los precios que hay que pagar en la lucha
   por la democracia y la libertad en Venezuelaa**.

   Read more:
   http://www.elnuevoherald.com/2011/06/15/962107/cubanos-realizan-espionaje-digital.html#ixzz1PU266bzW
   -----------------
   Reginald Thompson

   Cell: (011) 504 8990-7741

   OSINT
   Stratfor
</description>
    <date>2011-06-17 01:47:51</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-04-02 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3316669_re-latam-fwd-cuba-venezuela-ct-nuevo-herald-obtains.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>latam@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:latam@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reginald.thompson@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3325660</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [OS] CHINA/CSM - Alibaba says China police arrest 36
 in fraud probe
</title>
    <description>   Could you elaborate a bit on what you mean when you say they have
   increased their focus on stability?  You list out many very good reasons
   for them to do so, but as someone who has only (relatively) recently been
   following Chinese daily news, I'm curious what you've noted.

   On 7/5/11 3:46 AM, Zhixing Zhang wrote:

     if we want to write on redism, several leftists (sent by Utopia) were
     beat by the police in front of Shanghai NPC June 22 when submitting
     their appeals. This highlighted the state's unwillingness to see drastic
     redism. Meanwhile, this could very much upset redisms (though not many)
     who thought they are the closest supporter of CPC and the state. On the
     other hand, Mao Yushi was banned to be interviewed by VOA. CPC will want
     a very smooth celebration of its anniversary, of which stability is the
     priority task.

     Back to our discussion on legitimacy, I have a feeling that CPC is
     really trying to push forward stability in the recent years. Of course
     stability is always the priority for a state, and in particular for a
     giant authoritarian regime - so even pushing forward stability is much
     more of a reactive measure. But with the society being much more
     diversified, economic facing greater uncertainty, increasing social
     unrest, increasingly polarized ideology, ensuring CPC's role in
     maintaining stability - neither culture revolution - that we have seen
     CPC in its birthday further distance itself from CR, and Bo was
     reportedly blamed by core circle that his approach is nearly CP approach
     (from HK media, and we have to monitor it for confirmation), nor foreign
     interfere - something rightism would support and while catering to
     public, it could be acceptable only in limited way. It can be a
     consensus for the public that revolution and western intervention are
     both evils, and maintaining current stability is the only way to
     maintain the current status, something CPC's role lies on.

     On 04/07/2011 23:18, Sean Noonan wrote:

       This is also a pretty good CSM topic.  some college kids running a
       scam through Alibaba (chinese ebay), took in a good amount of money. 

       If we had some good 'redism' related incidents, maybe I could write on
       that, but we'd need some very concise points to make. 

       Let me know what you guys think of this and the surveillance camera
       topic.

       Jen, I assume that Trapwire is a competitor to Cisco, but I'm not
       sure.  I don't know if trapwire makes the actual cameras or just does
       the analysis.   I won't have real questions till morning. 

       On 7/2/11 11:00 AM, Kevin Stech wrote:

         Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in fraud probe

         02 July 2011 - 08H10 

         http://www.france24.com/en/20110702-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-fraud-probe

          

         AFP - Police have arrested 36 people in southeast China following an
         investigation into fraud on e-commerce site Alibaba.com and other
         websites that duped buyers out of more than $6 million.

          

         Alizila.com, Alibaba's corporate news website, reported earlier this
         week the suspects were detained in Fujian province's Putian city in
         April. John Spelich, the firm's spokesman, confirmed the report to
         AFP on Saturday.

          

         The people arrested allegedly operated a criminal gang that used
         fake IDs to open more than 100 "Gold Supplier" accounts on
         Alibaba.com. This designation is given to those certified as highly
         trusted suppliers by the firm.

          

         This allowed the suspects to pose as legitimate companies selling to
         overseas businesses that source goods through Alibaba.com. Police
         said the alleged scammers also used other international trading
         websites.

          

         Alibaba.com, based in the eastern city of Hangzhou, has grown into
         one of China's largest Internet companies by matching mainland
         manufacturers and wholesalers with buyers around the world.

          

         But its reputation took a hit in February when the firm announced
         the resignation of chief executive David Wei and head of operations
         Elvis Lee after fraud was uncovered on the site.

          

         Wei and Lee were not involved in the scams but resigned because they
         took responsibility for "systemic breakdowns" that allowed the fraud
         to happen, Alibaba said at the time.

          

         But according to the Alizila report, the fraud was "sometimes
         abetted by Alibaba.com employees." But Spelich said Saturday none of
         the 36 arrested worked at the company.

          

         He added the number of fraud complaints received by the website in
         June was down 70 percent from February after Alibaba toughened
         procedures and other security measures.

          

         The report said Alibaba had refunded $1.9 million to those who lost
         their money to the alleged scammers.

         Click here to find out more!

          

         Kevin Stech

         Director of Research | STRATFOR

         kevin.stech@stratfor.com

         +1 (512) 744-4086

          

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 15:25:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3325660_re-eastasia-os-china-csm-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>melissa.taylor@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3325688</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [OS] CHINA/CSM - Alibaba says China police arrest 36
 in fraud probe
</title>
    <description>   if we want to write on redism, several leftists (sent by Utopia) were beat
   by the police in front of Shanghai NPC June 22 when submitting their
   appeals. This highlighted the state's unwillingness to see drastic redism.
   Meanwhile, this could very much upset redisms (though not many) who
   thought they are the closest supporter of CPC and the state. On the other
   hand, Mao Yushi was banned to be interviewed by VOA. CPC will want a very
   smooth celebration of its anniversary, of which stability is the priority
   task.

   Back to our discussion on legitimacy, I have a feeling that CPC is really
   trying to push forward stability in the recent years. Of course stability
   is always the priority for a state, and in particular for a giant
   authoritarian regime - so even pushing forward stability is much more of a
   reactive measure. But with the society being much more diversified,
   economic facing greater uncertainty, increasing social unrest,
   increasingly polarized ideology, ensuring CPC's role in maintaining
   stability - neither culture revolution - that we have seen CPC in its
   birthday further distance itself from CR, and Bo was reportedly blamed by
   core circle that his approach is nearly CP approach (from HK media, and we
   have to monitor it for confirmation), nor foreign interfere - something
   rightism would support and while catering to public, it could be
   acceptable only in limited way. It can be a consensus for the public that
   revolution and western intervention are both evils, and maintaining
   current stability is the only way to maintain the current status,
   something CPC's role lies on.

   On 04/07/2011 23:18, Sean Noonan wrote:

     This is also a pretty good CSM topic.  some college kids running a scam
     through Alibaba (chinese ebay), took in a good amount of money. 

     If we had some good 'redism' related incidents, maybe I could write on
     that, but we'd need some very concise points to make. 

     Let me know what you guys think of this and the surveillance camera
     topic.

     Jen, I assume that Trapwire is a competitor to Cisco, but I'm not sure. 
     I don't know if trapwire makes the actual cameras or just does the
     analysis.   I won't have real questions till morning. 

     On 7/2/11 11:00 AM, Kevin Stech wrote:

       Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in fraud probe

       02 July 2011 - 08H10 

       http://www.france24.com/en/20110702-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-fraud-probe

        

       AFP - Police have arrested 36 people in southeast China following an
       investigation into fraud on e-commerce site Alibaba.com and other
       websites that duped buyers out of more than $6 million.

        

       Alizila.com, Alibaba's corporate news website, reported earlier this
       week the suspects were detained in Fujian province's Putian city in
       April. John Spelich, the firm's spokesman, confirmed the report to AFP
       on Saturday.

        

       The people arrested allegedly operated a criminal gang that used fake
       IDs to open more than 100 "Gold Supplier" accounts on Alibaba.com.
       This designation is given to those certified as highly trusted
       suppliers by the firm.

        

       This allowed the suspects to pose as legitimate companies selling to
       overseas businesses that source goods through Alibaba.com. Police said
       the alleged scammers also used other international trading websites.

        

       Alibaba.com, based in the eastern city of Hangzhou, has grown into one
       of China's largest Internet companies by matching mainland
       manufacturers and wholesalers with buyers around the world.

        

       But its reputation took a hit in February when the firm announced the
       resignation of chief executive David Wei and head of operations Elvis
       Lee after fraud was uncovered on the site.

        

       Wei and Lee were not involved in the scams but resigned because they
       took responsibility for "systemic breakdowns" that allowed the fraud
       to happen, Alibaba said at the time.

        

       But according to the Alizila report, the fraud was "sometimes abetted
       by Alibaba.com employees." But Spelich said Saturday none of the 36
       arrested worked at the company.

        

       He added the number of fraud complaints received by the website in
       June was down 70 percent from February after Alibaba toughened
       procedures and other security measures.

        

       The report said Alibaba had refunded $1.9 million to those who lost
       their money to the alleged scammers.

       Click here to find out more!

        

       Kevin Stech

       Director of Research | STRATFOR

       kevin.stech@stratfor.com

       +1 (512) 744-4086

        

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 10:46:19</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3325688_re-eastasia-os-china-csm-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>zhixing.zhang@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3325870</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [OS] CHINA/CSM - Alibaba says China police arrest
 36 in fraud probe
</title>
    <description>   Could you elaborate a bit on what you mean when you say they have
   increased their focus on stability?  You list out many very good reasons
   for them to do so, but as someone who has only (relatively) recently been
   following Chinese daily news, I'm curious what you've noted.

   On 7/5/11 3:46 AM, Zhixing Zhang wrote:

     if we want to write on redism, several leftists (sent by Utopia) were
     beat by the police in front of Shanghai NPC June 22 when submitting
     their appeals. This highlighted the state's unwillingness to see drastic
     redism. Meanwhile, this could very much upset redisms (though not many)
     who thought they are the closest supporter of CPC and the state. On the
     other hand, Mao Yushi was banned to be interviewed by VOA. CPC will want
     a very smooth celebration of its anniversary, of which stability is the
     priority task.

     Back to our discussion on legitimacy, I have a feeling that CPC is
     really trying to push forward stability in the recent years. Of course
     stability is always the priority for a state, and in particular for a
     giant authoritarian regime - so even pushing forward stability is much
     more of a reactive measure. But with the society being much more
     diversified, economic facing greater uncertainty, increasing social
     unrest, increasingly polarized ideology, ensuring CPC's role in
     maintaining stability - neither culture revolution - that we have seen
     CPC in its birthday further distance itself from CR, and Bo was
     reportedly blamed by core circle that his approach is nearly CP approach
     (from HK media, and we have to monitor it for confirmation), nor foreign
     interfere - something rightism would support and while catering to
     public, it could be acceptable only in limited way. It can be a
     consensus for the public that revolution and western intervention are
     both evils, and maintaining current stability is the only way to
     maintain the current status, something CPC's role lies on.

     On 04/07/2011 23:18, Sean Noonan wrote:

       This is also a pretty good CSM topic.  some college kids running a
       scam through Alibaba (chinese ebay), took in a good amount of money. 

       If we had some good 'redism' related incidents, maybe I could write on
       that, but we'd need some very concise points to make. 

       Let me know what you guys think of this and the surveillance camera
       topic.

       Jen, I assume that Trapwire is a competitor to Cisco, but I'm not
       sure.  I don't know if trapwire makes the actual cameras or just does
       the analysis.   I won't have real questions till morning. 

       On 7/2/11 11:00 AM, Kevin Stech wrote:

         Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in fraud probe

         02 July 2011 - 08H10 

         http://www.france24.com/en/20110702-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-fraud-probe

          

         AFP - Police have arrested 36 people in southeast China following an
         investigation into fraud on e-commerce site Alibaba.com and other
         websites that duped buyers out of more than $6 million.

          

         Alizila.com, Alibaba's corporate news website, reported earlier this
         week the suspects were detained in Fujian province's Putian city in
         April. John Spelich, the firm's spokesman, confirmed the report to
         AFP on Saturday.

          

         The people arrested allegedly operated a criminal gang that used
         fake IDs to open more than 100 "Gold Supplier" accounts on
         Alibaba.com. This designation is given to those certified as highly
         trusted suppliers by the firm.

          

         This allowed the suspects to pose as legitimate companies selling to
         overseas businesses that source goods through Alibaba.com. Police
         said the alleged scammers also used other international trading
         websites.

          

         Alibaba.com, based in the eastern city of Hangzhou, has grown into
         one of China's largest Internet companies by matching mainland
         manufacturers and wholesalers with buyers around the world.

          

         But its reputation took a hit in February when the firm announced
         the resignation of chief executive David Wei and head of operations
         Elvis Lee after fraud was uncovered on the site.

          

         Wei and Lee were not involved in the scams but resigned because they
         took responsibility for "systemic breakdowns" that allowed the fraud
         to happen, Alibaba said at the time.

          

         But according to the Alizila report, the fraud was "sometimes
         abetted by Alibaba.com employees." But Spelich said Saturday none of
         the 36 arrested worked at the company.

          

         He added the number of fraud complaints received by the website in
         June was down 70 percent from February after Alibaba toughened
         procedures and other security measures.

          

         The report said Alibaba had refunded $1.9 million to those who lost
         their money to the alleged scammers.

         Click here to find out more!

          

         Kevin Stech

         Director of Research | STRATFOR

         kevin.stech@stratfor.com

         +1 (512) 744-4086

          

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 15:25:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3325870_re-eastasia-os-china-csm-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>melissa.taylor@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3328236</id>
    <title>[alpha] Fw: Oslo
</title>
    <description>   Trapwire

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:18:40 -0500 (CDT)
   To: burton@stratfor.com&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Oslo
   99 percent sure. Some reports already confirming.
    
   From: burton@stratfor.com [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, July 22, 2011 12:15 PM
   To: Michael Maness
   Subject: Re: Oslo
    
   Think it was a bomb?

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:00:28 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Oslo

   My money's on a Libyan connection.

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 18:31:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3328236_-alpha-fw-oslo-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3328566</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Libyans also pay foreign mercenaries.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:12:04 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   Was the shooter a Libyan?

   On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:13:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3328566_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3328808</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Maybe, or he could be the Norwegian McVeigh.

   On 7/22/11 9:26 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     Mercenary
     Contract hit

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Hoor Jangda &lt;hoor.jangda@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:25:36 -0500 (CDT)
     To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
     the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
     height.

     On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

       Was the shooter a Libyan?

       On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:30:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3328808_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3347938</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [CT] Fwd: [OS] CHINA/CSM/CT- Cisco Poised to Help
	China Keep an Eye on Its	Citizens
</title>
    <description>   I'm sitting here with a cisco guy.  What is the trapwire tech?  He's not
   involved with this project but let me know if there are any ques and I'll
   see what he can find out.

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Jul 4, 2011, at 8:55 PM, Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

     Maybe with talk of Trapwire technology and such we can provide some
     insight on this.  The addition of the cameras is not new, I think i had
     it in the bullets sometime earlier this year. 

     -------- Original Message --------

      Subject: [OS] CHINA/CSM/CT- Cisco Poised to Help China Keep an Eye on   
               Its Citizens                                                   
         Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2011 22:52:54 -0500                                
         From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;                         
     Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                  
           To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                  

         * JULY 5, 2011

     Censorship Inc.
     Cisco Poised to Help China Keep an Eye on Its Citizens
     Read more:
     http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304778304576377141077267316.html#ixzz1RCQsajlK
     By LORETTA CHAO in Beijing and DON CLARK in San Francisco
     [CISCO] Getty Images

     Cameras in Beijing's Tiananmen Square. U.S. firms can sell surveillance
     gear in China, but not equipment that is used only for crime control.

     Western companies including Cisco Systems Inc. are poised to help build
     an ambitious new surveillance project in Chinaa**a citywide network of
     as many as 500,000 cameras that officials say will prevent crime but
     that human-rights advocates warn could target political dissent.
     [CISCO_p1]

     The system, being built in the city of Chongqing over the next two to
     three years, is among the largest and most sophisticated
     video-surveillance projects of its kind in China, and perhaps the world.
     Dubbed "Peaceful Chongqing," it is planned to cover a half-million
     intersections, neighborhoods and parks over nearly 400 square miles, an
     area more than 25% larger than New York City.

     The project sheds light on how Western tech companies sell their wares
     in China, the Middle East and other places where there is potential for
     the gear to be used for political purposes and not just safety. The
     products range from Internet-censoring software to sophisticated
     networking gear. China in particular has drawn criticism for treating
     political dissent as a crime and has a track record of using technology
     to suppress it.

     An examination of the Peaceful Chongqing project by The Wall Street
     Journal shows Cisco is expected to supply networking equipment that is
     essential to operating large and complicated surveillance systems,
     according to people familiar with the deal.

     The U.S. has prohibited export of crime-control products to China (for
     instance, fingerprinting equipment) ever since Beijing's deadly 1989
     Tiananmen Square crackdown. But the U.S. restrictions don't prohibit
     sale of technologies such as cameras that can be used in many waysa**to
     tame, say, either traffic jams or democracy marches. This loophole
     troubles some critics. There is no indication that Cisco is selling
     products customized for crime control.
     More

         * Cisco Faces Lawsuits, Criticism Over Past China Activities

     Western companies' pursuit of sales in China underscores a fundamental
     question for businesses and policy makers alike: Should companies be
     held accountable if foreign governments use their products for political
     suppression?

     Cisco was brought in to the Chongqing project by Chinese security
     company Hikvision Digital Technology Co., the project's main contractor,
     Hikvision officials and others say. It is unclear whether Cisco's
     participation has been finalized, although one person familiar with the
     matter says it is close.

     Officials at Cisco, based in San Jose, Calif., declined to discuss its
     possible involvement in detail. A company spokesman stressed that Cisco
     "hasn't sold video cameras or video-surveillance solutions in any of our
     public infrastructure projects in China."

     The company has previously saida**including in a June blog post by
     Cisco's general counsel, Mark Chandlera**that the company strictly
     abides by the Tiananmen export controls and doesn't supply any gear to
     China that is "customized in any way" to facilitate repressive uses.

     View Full Image
     CISCO_jmp
     CISCO_jmp
     CISCO_jmp

     Cisco is the world's biggest maker of networking equipment, which
     includes routing and switching systems that send data between computers
     and connect systems to the Internet. The company has stirred controversy
     in the past for its China dealings.

     The Chongqing project is also attracting interest from other U.S.
     companies, including Alabama software maker Intergraph Corp.
     Hewlett-Packard Co. also expects to bid on part of the project,
     according to a senior H-P executive.

     The people familiar with the matter said H-P may be looking to supply
     servers or storage equipment for Peaceful Chongqing.

     Asked about concerns about political use of the system, Todd Bradley, an
     executive vice president who oversees H-P's China strategy, said in an
     interview last week in China, "We take them at their word as to the
     usage." He added, "It's not my job to really understand what they're
     going to use it for. Our job is to respond to the bid that they've
     made."
     Censorship Inc.

         * Mideast Uses Western Tools to Battle the Skype Rebellion 6/1/2011
         * Iran Vows to Unplug Internet 5/28/2011
         * U.S. Products Help Block Mideast Web 3/28/2011

     Another possible participant in the Chongqing project is Intergraph, a
     Huntsville, Ala., company that made a bid through Cisco to provide
     customized software for the effort, said Bob Scott, head of Intergraph's
     security group. It is unclear if the company, a unit of Sweden's Hexagon
     AB, will ultimately be hired.

     Although sale of surveillance technology to repressive nations is
     permissible, some critics have harsh words for companies that do so.
     "The business community is only hearing what it wants to hear and
     disregarding the rest," said Rep. Frank Wolf, a Virginia Republican who
     co-chairs the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, a nonpartisan rights
     group made up of members of Congress.

     Chongqing, a sprawling metropolis in southwestern China, is one of the
     most populous cities in the nation with an urban population of at least
     12 million. The hillside Yangtze River port, famous for spicy hot-pot
     and often covered in fog, was China's capital from 1938 to 1945. Today,
     it is being developed as a gateway to the country's western hinterland.

     Chongqing has gained prominence the past two years because of its
     Communist Party chief, Bo Xilai, a rising political star who has led a
     controversial crackdown on organized crime that some lawyers have
     criticized for what they say are violations of legal due process.

     View Full Image
     CISCO
     Getty Images

     Chongqing's party chief, Bo Xilai, led a controversial crime crackdown.
     CISCO
     CISCO

     Mr. Bo declined to comment. He is expected to become one of China's top
     leaders next year by being appointed to China's Politburo Standing
     Committee, the nation's top decision-making body.

     Chongqing's government has said it plans to invest more than $800
     million of its own in building the Peaceful Chongqing system. Another
     $1.6 billion is coming from other, unspecified sources, the city has
     said. Hikvision's president, Hu Yangzhong, said in an interview that
     government funds would go toward building the central surveillance
     network and installing a portion of the cameras, while more cameras
     would be installed by owners of residences, office buildings and
     othersa**all of which would be linked to the network.

     Video-surveillance systems can serve many purposes and are routinely
     used for benign purposes by cities world-wide to fight crime and ease
     traffic. Still, civil libertarians raise concerns including in the U.S.
     that the technology can invade privacy and is poorly regulated.

     Human-rights advocates say Chinese police have used surveillance footage
     to identify people in political protests. Jailed Chinese artist-activist
     Ai Weiwei, who was released last month, complained before he was
     apprehended on April 3 that police were using cameras to monitor him.

     Corinna-Barbara Francis, a researcher at Amnesty International, said
     surveillance footage has been used to identify and apprehend peaceful
     protesters in China, including in Xinjiang and Tibet. "In China there's
     ample evidence that they use" video surveillance "to crack down and then
     criminalize activity which should not be criminalized," Ms. Francis
     said.

     The Chongqing government declined to comment, as did China's Ministry of
     Public Security and the State Council Information Office. Chinese
     leaders have long argued that maintaining social stability and economic
     growth takes precedence over political rights.

     Hikvision's president, Mr. Hu, said he believes the project's goal is to
     cut crime, not target political dissidents. "China has a very serious
     public-security problem," he said in an interview last week. He blamed
     an epidemic of robbery and other crimes on the flood of poor migrants
     into China's cities and a growing wealth gap.

     Mr. Hu said Chongqing's new surveillance system will be tied in to an
     information network that Cisco is already building in the city, where
     Cisco has announced a high-profile alliance under a program it calls
     Smart+Connected Communitiesa**an initiative under which Cisco consults
     with governments around the world to use technology to tackle civic
     problems such as transportation, healthcare and education.

     According to the Chongqing government's website, Cisco Chief Executive
     John Chambers told the city's mayor in a meeting last year that he hoped
     the Smart+Connected project could create a "model in Chongqing which can
     be popularized in China."

     Executives at Western companies say they must weigh the possibility that
     technology could be misused against the business risks of missing out on
     a lucrative market. "We do have concerns," said Intergraph's Mr. Scott.
     "On the other hand, we want to do business there," he said, noting that
     the company's software is also used for environmental and other projects
     in China.

     "We're just the technology platform," he said, adding that it is the
     responsibility of the buyers "to meet and adhere to laws and policies"
     of their jurisdictions. Ultimately, Intergraph has "to manage the risk
     against the gain."

     In an April interview with the Journal, Bill Stuntz, general manager of
     Cisco's physical-security business, said Cisco gives careful
     consideration to how its products are used in China and doesn't want
     them to be used for repressive purposes. He declined to discuss specific
     projects in China but noted that sales of security equipment there have
     been expanding rapidly. He said Cisco is providing products that include
     networking equipment and servers along with support for some large
     video-surveillance systems, though not video cameras.

     China has become the fastest growing market for surveillance equipment,
     although it isn't yet the biggest, according to IMS Research, a U.K.
     firm that studies the market. The surveillance markets in the U.S. and
     Europe are growing at single-digit rates while surveillance-related
     revenue in China is growing at 23% a year. Surveillance-equipment sales
     alone, not including networking gear or software, totaled $1.7 billion
     last year.

     Chongqing's government says on its website that its current surveillance
     system is outdated, allowing police to directly tap into just 15,000 of
     the total 300,000 cameras. It wants the new system to be among the
     world's most advanced.

     Mr. Scott of Intergraph says Chongqing wants not only to increase camera
     count, but also to have video managed and delivered to dozens of police
     precincts and other organizations. The project presents challenges "that
     have not really been done anywhere else in the world," he said.

     Mr. Scott said his company spent three years developing software that
     enables multiple agencies to control cameras and also analyzes video
     feeds for unusual situations like fires or the formation of crowds.

     The number of surveillance cameras in Chinese cities including Chongqing
     appears to dwarf that of other cities around the world, though
     comparisons are tough because cities generally don't disclose their
     camera counts.

     A 2008 report by the state-run Xinhua news agency said Beijing had some
     280,000 cameras in its system. By comparison, privacy advocates in the
     U.S., including the American Civil Liberties Union, estimate Chicago has
     10,000 cameras. The New York Civil Liberties Union estimated in 2009
     that there were 8,000 cameras in New York.
     a**Kersten Zhang, Yoli Zhang, Jason Dean and Cari Tuna contributed to
     this article.

     Write to Loretta Chao at loretta.chao@wsj.com and Don Clark at
     don.clark@wsj.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 06:03:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3347938_re-eastasia-ct-fwd-os-china-csm-ct-cisco-poised-to-help.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>richmond@core.stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3350977</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
   height.

   On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

     Was the shooter a Libyan?

     On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:25:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3350977_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>hoor.jangda@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3355023</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged "Anonymous" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise "anonymous"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-10 19:47:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3355023_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3355217</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
 CODE
</title>
    <description>   It might sound strange, but some of the most radical deep ecology people
   actually believe that there are too many people on the earth and that
   radical steps must be taken to reduce the population and save the earth.
    This strain of deep ecology is a clear reflection of the way the movement
   was heavily influenced by people like Martin Heidegger who were also
   committed to Nazism. Yes, Nazis were radical environmentalists.....
   From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 23:08:31 -0600
   To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Jesus I spent a couple of hours researching these guys - weird is an
   understatement. Apparently they met yesterday a couple of blocks away from
   my house to consolidate their leadership, go through basic indoctrination
   and plan more events. As far as I can tell, the Austin chapter is not
   nearly as radical as the central Lierre Keith DGR whose website is a
   treasure trove of incitment to passive resistance, blowing up energy
   infra, basic counter intel and legal guidance.

   Their ideology seems to be a mix of hardcore environmentalism, anarchism,
   radical feminism and the general notion that we need to go back living
   sustainably like the american indians by blowing up every pipeline and
   cell tower on the planet. Unlike the central DGR, Austin DGR doesn't seem
   to have defined targets and goals (their meeting yesterday was a
   brainstorming session on what radical environmentalism means in Austin).

   just a few nice quotes from their central website:

   The task of an activist is not to navigate systems of oppressive power
   with as much personal integrity as possible; it is to dismantle those
   systems.

   What would we do if Nazis had invaded, and they were vacuuming the oceans,
   scalping native forests, damming every river, changing the climate, and
   putting carcinogens into every mother's breast milk, and into the flesh of
   your children, your lover, your mother, into your own flesh? How much
   worse would the damage have to get? Would you resist? If there existed a
   resistance movement, would you join it?

   On 11/16/11 7:42 PM, Victoria Allen wrote:

     WHOA.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 18:38:01 -0600
     To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Cc: Anya Alfano&lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
     CODE
     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not "radical" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the "Phoenix Commune" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as "stupid, crazy motherfuckers", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, "Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-17 14:01:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3355217_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3362327</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [CT] [OS] CHINA/CSM - Alibaba says China police
 arrest 36 in fraud probe
</title>
    <description>   I agree with Alibaba and had flagged that too.  I didn't see the mention
   of trapwire in the story on Cisco.  Maybe I missed it.  Yes, keep me
   posted on any questions and I'll see what my contact can dig up.

   On 7/4/11 11:18 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     This is also a pretty good CSM topic.  some college kids running a scam
     through Alibaba (chinese ebay), took in a good amount of money. 

     If we had some good 'redism' related incidents, maybe I could write on
     that, but we'd need some very concise points to make. 

     Let me know what you guys think of this and the surveillance camera
     topic.

     Jen, I assume that Trapwire is a competitor to Cisco, but I'm not sure. 
     I don't know if trapwire makes the actual cameras or just does the
     analysis.   I won't have real questions till morning. 

     On 7/2/11 11:00 AM, Kevin Stech wrote:

       Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in fraud probe

       02 July 2011 - 08H10 

       http://www.france24.com/en/20110702-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-fraud-probe

        

       AFP - Police have arrested 36 people in southeast China following an
       investigation into fraud on e-commerce site Alibaba.com and other
       websites that duped buyers out of more than $6 million.

        

       Alizila.com, Alibaba's corporate news website, reported earlier this
       week the suspects were detained in Fujian province's Putian city in
       April. John Spelich, the firm's spokesman, confirmed the report to AFP
       on Saturday.

        

       The people arrested allegedly operated a criminal gang that used fake
       IDs to open more than 100 "Gold Supplier" accounts on Alibaba.com.
       This designation is given to those certified as highly trusted
       suppliers by the firm.

        

       This allowed the suspects to pose as legitimate companies selling to
       overseas businesses that source goods through Alibaba.com. Police said
       the alleged scammers also used other international trading websites.

        

       Alibaba.com, based in the eastern city of Hangzhou, has grown into one
       of China's largest Internet companies by matching mainland
       manufacturers and wholesalers with buyers around the world.

        

       But its reputation took a hit in February when the firm announced the
       resignation of chief executive David Wei and head of operations Elvis
       Lee after fraud was uncovered on the site.

        

       Wei and Lee were not involved in the scams but resigned because they
       took responsibility for "systemic breakdowns" that allowed the fraud
       to happen, Alibaba said at the time.

        

       But according to the Alizila report, the fraud was "sometimes abetted
       by Alibaba.com employees." But Spelich said Saturday none of the 36
       arrested worked at the company.

        

       He added the number of fraud complaints received by the website in
       June was down 70 percent from February after Alibaba toughened
       procedures and other security measures.

        

       The report said Alibaba had refunded $1.9 million to those who lost
       their money to the alleged scammers.

       Click here to find out more!

        

       Kevin Stech

       Director of Research | STRATFOR

       kevin.stech@stratfor.com

       +1 (512) 744-4086

        

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 07:22:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3362327_re-eastasia-ct-os-china-csm-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3365356</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Mercenary
   Contract hit

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Hoor Jangda &lt;hoor.jangda@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:25:36 -0500 (CDT)
   To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
   height.

   On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

     Was the shooter a Libyan?

     On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:26:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3365356_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3368876</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Was the shooter a Libyan?

   On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:11:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3368876_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3371652</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   We don't know

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:12:04 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   Was the shooter a Libyan?

   On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:13:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3371652_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3373596</id>
    <title>Fwd: [alpha] INSIGHT - INDONESIA - Freeport - CN65
</title>
    <description>   Response from source CN65:  disagree.  I don't know what the figures are
   for this mine, but if that is what they have forward sold, then it equates
   to only 12.5 days production.  This means they are unlikely be under much
   pressure.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Alfredo Viegas" &lt;alfredo.viegas@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Benjamin Preisler" &lt;ben.preisler@stratfor.com&gt;
     Cc: "Melissa Taylor" &lt;melissa.taylor@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Friday, September 16, 2011 7:15:35 AM
     Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - INDONESIA - Freeport - CN65

     As of June reporting - Freeport had 55 million pounds of copper sold
     forward, most of which was due for delivery by end August.  Uncertain if
     they would roll these contracts, but maybe they did, but that is only
     about $200mn impact.   Meanwhile back in July the Indonesia workers went
     on strike for 8 days and this cost Freeport 35 million pounds of lost
     copper production and 60,000 oz of lost gold.   Hence, I think we can
     see that if this strike goes on for a long while it can quickly add up
     in terms of lost production

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Benjamin Preisler" &lt;ben.preisler@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Friday, September 16, 2011 7:45:27 AM
     Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - INDONESIA - Freeport - CN65

     **I have another new Indo source I want to test out on this issue and I
     can also go back to this source.  What are some specifics we're looking
     at?  This source is sending in an interesting question, not really
     insight.  We need to see if we can find out more.

     SOURCE: CN65
     ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
     natural resources
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: Not really insight but direction
     DISTRO: Alpha + Invest
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

     Dear Jen,
     In case you haven't heard:

       Freeport Weighs Grasberg Strike Impact on Output, Shipments
       Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Freeport-McMoRan Copper &amp; Gold Inc. is
       assessing the
       impact on production and deliveries at its Grasberg copper and gold
       mine in
       Indonesia after the union said 70 percent of workers started a
       one-month strike
       last night. About 8,000 employees at Grasberg, excluding workers from
       contractors, joined the strike that started at midnight to demand wage
       increases,
       Juli Parorrongan, a labor union spokesman, said today. Freeport miners
       are also
       striking in Peru. We are disappointed that union workers decided to
       implement an
       illegal work stoppage, said Ramdani Sirait, a PT Freeport Indonesia
       spokesman,
       in a statement. The company has negotiated in a diligent good-faith
       manner with
       union representatives to reach a mutually satisfactory agreement.
       Grasberg has
       the worlds largest recoverable reserves of copper and the biggest
       single gold
       reserve, according to the Freeport website. Workers in Peru, Chile,
       Bolivia and
       Indonesia have gone on strike at copper, gold and zinc mines this
       year, seeking
       improved conditions and a bigger slice of record profits after metal
       prices more
       than doubled since the end of 2008. Copper for three-month delivery
       advanced as
       much as 1.1 percent to $8,727 a metric ton on the London Metal
       Exchange today and
       traded at $8,647.75 a ton. Strikes at Grasberg in Papua province 1,940
       miles
       (3,120 kilometers) east of Jakarta, and in Peru may widen a global
       shortage of
       copper estimated at 670,000 metric tons this year by Barclays Capital
       and boost
       prices of the metal.

     The issue on this is how much of Freeport's production is forward sold?
      If they have not forward sold much, then there is not a huge amount of
     pressure, since prices will rise, and so marginal profits will increase,
     marginally offsetting losses on fixed capital.  if they have forward
     sold their production, then there will be greater issues, and the
     company will be under more pressure, unless the contracts have a force
     majeure clause covering strikes.

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3373596_fwd-alpha-insight-indonesia-freeport-cn65-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kendra.vessels@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>melissa.taylor@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alfredo.viegas@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3387123</id>
    <title>Write up on Venezuela, Chavez
</title>
    <description>   Hi Alfredo, 

   Here is a write-up that our Latam analyst, Karen, did this week for
   another project. I have invited Karen to join our call on Monday to
   discuss Venezuela and Chavez. She would also like to discuss Argentina
   briefly if that's possible. 

   Best, 

   Kendra

   VENEZUELA

   Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has built around himself a personalized
   system of governance that requires his specific oversight and involvement.
   Furthermore, he has built up a system of political support structures that
   are mutually adversarial, to disincentivize his removal. We therefore
   consider the removal of Chavez to be an event that would significantly
   destabilize the country. The key pillars of support are (in order of
   importance): Public support, oil production and sales, the military, the
   Bolivarian peasant militias and access to the Cuban intelligence system.

    

   I. Popular Support

   The first pillar of support is of course popular acceptance of the
   Venezuelan government. Despite the highly centralized nature of Venezuelan
   governments throughout history, they inevitably serve at the pleasure of
   the masses. Even the military dares only to overthrow the government in
   times of extreme delegitimization of the elected or appointed political
   elite. To understand why Chaveza**s popularity and political strength
   endure despite the serious challenges facing Venezuela, it is necessary to
   remember the circumstances that led to his rise to power.

    

   Surging income from the oil-price spikes of the 1970s and early 1980s led
   to economic instability throughout the next two decades. Caracas moved to
   rapidly expand government expenditures in order to satisfy the populist
   demands of an underdeveloped country. This spending brought about a steep
   rise in corruption and spiraling inflation. Venezuela attempted to correct
   these imbalances through neoliberal reforms, including eliminating
   subsidies and raising taxes. The most damaging response to the new
   policies was the1989 riots a** known as the a**Caracazoa** a** which were
   triggered by a rise in the price of gasoline. The riots left nearly 300
   people dead in Caracas.

    

   Shortly thereafter Chavez, a young lieutenant colonel, entered the
   national spotlight during a failed coup attempt. Well-spoken and
   charismatic even in defeat, Chavez made an impression at a time when the
   Venezuelan political system was clearly breaking down. After Chavez was
   released from prison, he was able to seek leadership of the country again
   a** this time through the elections that brought him to Miraflores in
   1999. Chavez appeared at a pivotal time and was able to move on from his
   mistakes and seek power democratically. As a leader, he satisfies
   Venezuelaa**s need for a strong central figure capable of reining in
   factions competing for power. Chavez also appeals on a very personal level
   to swaths of the population who identify with his persona and with
   policies that place poverty at the forefront of the national agenda.

    

   Much more important than his personal appeal or even his ability to manage
   the various needs of competing factions, is his commitment to populist
   policies that focus on the redistribution of wealth to the poor. Food
   distribution in poor areas along with free health care and housing are key
   ways that Chavez seeks to maintain popular appeal. So far, Chavez remains
   the most popular politician in the country, with his approval rating
   hovering around and generally over 50 percent. However, there is cause for
   serious concern for his long-term popularity in light of a number of
   challenges, including consistently high inflation, food shortages,
   electricity failures and a number of highly publicized failures in
   implementing social projects.

    

   The government consistently makes moves to reform economic policies in an
   attempt to control for market distortions and cut back government
   spending. So far, there has been no strong backlash to price hikes on
   basic goods, but it is a hot button issue. Gasoline is a particularly
   critical good that the government fears to raise the price on, despite the
   booming black market with Colombia that means that a huge portion of
   Venezuelaa**s subsidized gasoline is sold at high profits across the
   border in Colombia. The fear is that a hike on gasoline could cause
   another Caracazo, so instead of raising prices, the government is
   attempting

    

   Venezuelans are not shy about protesting, and protests are on the rise. If
   the number of protests by everything from the political opposition to
   labor unions so far in 2011 is anything to go by (and therea**s nothing to
   suggest that this will decline), 2011 will experience the highest number
   of protests since Chavez took power. This is somewhat deceptive, as the
   efficacy of unrest is rests more in the size and duration of the protests
   than in the strict quantity of events. Nevertheless, the rise in unrest
   and general dissatisfaction among organizations all across the political
   spectrum is an indicator that problems in the Venezuelan economic and
   political system are having a broad impact.

    

   II. Oil

   The second pillar of support is oil production. With the discovery of oil
   in Venezuela in the early 20th century the county became immediately and
   almost entirely focused on its production. Though the post WWII period
   until the mid to late 1990s, the economy diversified to a degree, using
   oil money to finance development of secondary industries such as steel and
   food production. With the rise to power of Hugo Chavez and the subsequent
   coup in 2002 that involved the upper level management of PDVSA, Chavez
   crippled the company by firing most of the higher level and technically
   skilled staff. Since that time, oil production in Venezuela has been on a
   long slow decline. Oil production dropped 25 percent from a high of 3.2
   million barrels per day (bpd) in 2001 to an estimated 2.4 million bpd in
   2010.

    

   However, the decline in production volumes is a result of a decline in new
   exploration and production, as well as a deterioration of production
   capacity at extant oil producing facilities. Furthermore, the oil mix in
   Venezuela has become heavier and sourer as reserves in the Maracaibo
   region decline, and the Orinoco deposits become more important.  This
   quality of deposit requires greater levels of investment, greater
   commitment from investors and a higher risk level. Already risky operating
   environment, Venezuela in its current state is unlikely to receive
   investments from technically skilled (read: Western) oil companies that
   are necessary to boost production.

    

   Though Chinese companies have shown an interest in both maintenance/repair
   contracts as well as drilling contracts, it is not at all clear that they
   possess the technological capacity to develop Venezuelaa**s geographically
   and technically challenging deposits. Furthermore, the Chinse arena**t in
   it for charity, and are also wary of the risks associated with very
   serious Venezuelan investments.

    

   Without serious and technologically adept investment worth tens of
   billions of dollars, the industry faces a slow and inevitable decline. 

    

   This ongoing decline is in part compensated for by the fact that prices
   have more than quadrupled since 2001. Government revenues remain heavily
   dependent on oil income to fund its activities. The nominal budgetary
   reliance on oil income is 22 percent. However, a series of slush funds
   into which oil money is funneled directly from PDVSA and from which
   discretionary spending is non-transparent belie the official stats. These
   expenditures have shot up and over the annual planned budget over the past
   several years as the government seeks to use cash transfers to mitigate
   income disparities and market distortions. Borrowing has increased
   alongside the use of oil revenues. So far in 2011, the national debt
   increased by 10 percent to about $85 billion. While debt remains quite
   manageable, the pattern of behavior suggests that any shock to
   Venezuelaa**s income levels could severely destabilize government
   spending, social programs, economic stability and Chaveza**s popularity.

    

   In the event of a destabilization scenario, any potential Venezuelan
   leader has an incentive to maintain stability and output in the oil
   sector. However, the danger to the physical assets the oil industry owns
   will come in the form of potential widespread infighting and unrest. Oil
   installations make for obvious targets for militancy, and oil output, as
   Venezuela's only real asset, is the real prize to be won in any struggle
   for control over the country. Also, strikes and labor struggles that
   impact the oil industry cannot be ruled out if a power struggle ensues in
   Caracas. From a security standpoint, any destabilization of the government
   that involves unrest or violence would be a direct threat to personnel on
   the ground.

    

   There are other threats to the industry that will result from even a
   slight escalation of the ongoing economic and political struggles in the
   country. The lack of investment in PDVSA will be exacerbated if Chavez is
   forced to spend more money on ensuring the loyalty of the populace, the
   military and his inner circle. This trend is already worsening even as
   output declines. In 2009, PDVSA contributed 93 percent of its income to
   the government through various taxes, grants and deposits into government
   accounts. In 2010, that amount increased to 97 percent of net income. The
   margin of error is shrinking for PDVSA, and the company's well-documented
   decline in technical capacity will be exacerbated as finances become even
   tighter. Though we do not necessarily expect the recent release of
   strategic oil reserves to have a significant or long-term effect on oil
   prices, any severe fluctuations in either oil price or oil output would
   hit the government hard.

    

   III. The Military

   As the main proprietor of Venezuelaa**s weaponry, the military is a
   critical consideration in any destabilization scenario. The military has
   been involved in three failed coups since 1992. In each case, elements of
   the military either sought to generate an upwelling of public support for
   regime change, or were attempting to capitalize on already extant unrest.

    

   The military is unlikely to do anything but support (at the very least by
   refusing to become involved) the current government until a complete
   destabilization scenario. Even in times of unrest, the military will stand
   back from conflict until it is certain the current government has lost
   legitimacy. Should Chavez fail to return, or return but be unable to
   control the situation in-country, the military will be in a position to
   either support one of the power brokers of Chavez's inner circle or put
   forward its own representative.

    

   However, the military cannot be considered a unified force. The past three
   coup attempts failed in part because there was not enough political
   support for a change in government and the military itself was not united
   behind the effort. It is therefore possible that elements within the
   military could miscalculate, moving before Chavez has lost full
   legitimacy. In this scenario, clashes between different military factions
   should not be ruled out.

    

   IV. The Militias

   Built as a tool to counterbalance the military, the Bolivarian militias.
   Organized around neighborhoods throughout Venezuelan cities and in the
   countryside, the Bolivarian militias are Chavez's insurance policy against
   a military coup. By arming citizens, Chavez has made any direct action
   against the government more uncertain and has increased the chances that
   any threat to his government will trigger widespread violence. Adan Chavez
   raised the threat of these militias when he quoted Ernesto "Che" Guevarra
   on June 26, saying, "It would be inexcusable to limit ourselves to only
   the electoral and not see other forms of struggle, including the armed
   struggle." There are, however, some limits to the ability of these
   militias. The military has maintained strict control over the weapons used
   by the militias in practice. It is not known at this point if the militias
   have access to alternative sources of weaponry.

    

   V. Cuban Intelligence

   Cuba plays a critical role in keeping Chavez in power by serving as an
   outside and loyal observer of political affairs in Venezuela. Using the
   intelligence assets of an outside player with a key interest in keeping
   cheap oil flowing has helped Chavez maneuver carefully and manage a
   potentially poisonous domestic political situation in exchange for
   Venezuelan oil shipments to subsidize the islanda**s economy. Though the
   Cubans will be willing to deal with whoever is in power, the natural
   ideological tint to any relationship between Venezuela and Cuba means that
   the Cubans could well lose their petroleum lifeline should a more
   pragmatic domestic player such as Cabello take power or should the country
   fall into chaos. Any diminished commitment from Cuba to protecting the
   personal interests of Chavez could severely cripple the Venezuelan leader.
   With that said, there would have to be a complete regime change in Cuba
   for that to happen. There is enough continuity built into the Cuban
   government, which has kept most of the old guard in power despite the
   handoff to Raul. Chavez should be able to count on a continued commitment
   to his regime and the oil it delivers.

    

   The Illness

   Chavez is reportedly undergoing his third phase of chemotherapy, this time
   in Caracas. Though he claims he is already cured and the chemotherapy is
   preventive, his condition appears to be more serious than he is letting
   on. One source claims Chavez has stage 4 prostatic cancer that has spread
   to his anus (hence the claims of colon cancer). The prognosis his Cuban
   medical team has reportedly given Chavez is a 50 percent chance of
   surviving another two years if his treatment is limited to the medical
   team in Cuba and Cuban facilities while his survival expectancy could be
   four years with Western technology and medical care. Russia has offered
   its medical team and services to Chavez, and there have been some hints in
   open-source media of Russian doctors joining Chaveza**s medical team.

    

   The Succession

   There is no clear line of succession in Venezuela. No politician in
   Venezuela has the credibility with the populace or political clout of
   Chavez. This is both because Chavez is in himself a unique leader and also
   because he has undermined and outright sabotaged opponents and potential
   opponents. As a result of this fact, the fact of Chaveza**s illness brings
   the stability of the regime into serious question. General elections are
   scheduled for the last half of 2012, and there are rumors that Chavez may
   seek to push the elections up earlier. In a best-case scenario that takes
   into account this prognosis, Chavez either picks and promotes a successor
   to win the election in 2012 or he wins the elections and appoints a VP
   that could credibly succeed him. In the event that Chavez chooses a
   competent successor, s/he would still have to manage an economic situation
   that is volatile at best, and further destabilization is likely,
   particularly if the government loses control of the factions w/in the
   political elite.

    

   There are two worst case scenarios, both of which are quite possible. In
   the first scenario, Chavez dies or is disabled without having appointed a
   competent successor. In this scenario, a political fight will ensue among
   the various factions. The military will attempt to gain control, but
   Chaveza**s militia may find the strength and arms to fight back. In this
   case, a scenario where American citizens in Venezuela would need to be
   evacuated is likely. A second destabilization scenario would be economic
   in nature. A sudden downward shift in oil prices would destabilize the
   governmenta**s social programs, spark an economic collapse, and provoke
   widespread civil unrest.

    

   Forecast: While there remain many layers of control over stability in
   Venezuela, a confluence of factors has weakened the country along economic
   and political lines. Given his illness, the death or disabling of Hugo
   Chavez is a serious possibility in the next three years. A sudden decline
   in oil prices triggered by a global recession, which is somewhat less
   likely but not at all impossible would also cause a collapse of social
   outreach programs and thus the social stability. With these factors
   combined, there is a high likelihood of severe social destabilization in
   Venezuela over the next three years that woudl require the evacuation of
   American citizens and cause a cessation of oil exports to Cuba.
</description>
    <date>2011-09-15 21:31:16</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-15 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3387123_write-up-on-venezuela-chavez-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kendra.vessels@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>melissa.taylor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alfredo.viegas@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3392735</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111
</title>
    <description>   this dude really gives the impression that Moscow calls the shots in Kiev

   so basically, Med gets pissed b/c Timo is blowing Putin and not him, so he
   whines to Putin and says drop the B and get behind Yanu like me. Putin
   says fine, Yanu gets excited and oversteps his boundaries, and now Putin
   is like fix this shit Med and Med is like okay, but we dont know what Med
   is actually gonna do to slap Yanu around

   so what's the couterargument to this? Does Russia really have this much
   influence over the situation?  this is something we need to address in
   ukraine reassessment

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marc Lanthemann" &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

   CODE: UA111
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Kiev
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch.
   But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps
   this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to
   begin with.

    

   You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in
   power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew
   Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to
   solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be
   Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most
   easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got
   her in trouble and arrested.

    

   But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no
   respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev
   made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a
   deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if
   Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being
   the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU,
   military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension
   it had been pushing for.

    

   So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009,
   the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing
   to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of
   demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally.

    

   Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev
   to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing
   against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever
   will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-09-14 20:55:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3392735_re-alpha-insight-ukraine-moscow-kiev-spat-ua111-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3398110</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [OS] CHINA/CSM - Alibaba says China police arrest 36
 in fraud probe
</title>
    <description>    CPC would very well explore a majority of public, and in particular, the
   elite groups' unwillingness to have something radical that affect their
   livelihood and assets. and such threat would be severer in a situation
   where social-economic uncertainties are increasing. For many, instability
   is the most immediate concern than political reform or anything else, and
   even for some advocate calling for political reform, it is unlikely to be
   at the expense of their individual interests. Given such recognition, CPC
   will have the space to maneuver its propaganda and security asparagus to
   reinforce its role under current situation.

   But again, maintaining stability is nothing new, it is the priority for
   any authority in every country. But what we saw, perhaps is the greater
   empathize on CPC's role and capability in ensuring so. This happened in
   Tibet and Xijiang riot, when CPC attempted to enhance the role in ensuring
   economic development for ethnics, and crackdown outside maneuver in part
   for claiming protecting Han people. And for current unrest that CPC is
   reasserting the role to protect migrants and local public from losing
   assets. And further to radical call for political reform such as jasmine,
   saying such approach, particularly foreign manipulated could also lead to
   another chaos in China. They are all reactive measures, but they could be
   manipulated as part of CPC's attempt to reinforce its role

   On 05/07/2011 08:25, Melissa Taylor wrote:

     Could you elaborate a bit on what you mean when you say they have
     increased their focus on stability?  You list out many very good reasons
     for them to do so, but as someone who has only (relatively) recently
     been following Chinese daily news, I'm curious what you've noted.

     On 7/5/11 3:46 AM, Zhixing Zhang wrote:

       if we want to write on redism, several leftists (sent by Utopia) were
       beat by the police in front of Shanghai NPC June 22 when submitting
       their appeals. This highlighted the state's unwillingness to see
       drastic redism. Meanwhile, this could very much upset redisms (though
       not many) who thought they are the closest supporter of CPC and the
       state. On the other hand, Mao Yushi was banned to be interviewed by
       VOA. CPC will want a very smooth celebration of its anniversary, of
       which stability is the priority task.

       Back to our discussion on legitimacy, I have a feeling that CPC is
       really trying to push forward stability in the recent years. Of course
       stability is always the priority for a state, and in particular for a
       giant authoritarian regime - so even pushing forward stability is much
       more of a reactive measure. But with the society being much more
       diversified, economic facing greater uncertainty, increasing social
       unrest, increasingly polarized ideology, ensuring CPC's role in
       maintaining stability - neither culture revolution - that we have seen
       CPC in its birthday further distance itself from CR, and Bo was
       reportedly blamed by core circle that his approach is nearly CP
       approach (from HK media, and we have to monitor it for confirmation),
       nor foreign interfere - something rightism would support and while
       catering to public, it could be acceptable only in limited way. It can
       be a consensus for the public that revolution and western intervention
       are both evils, and maintaining current stability is the only way to
       maintain the current status, something CPC's role lies on.

       On 04/07/2011 23:18, Sean Noonan wrote:

         This is also a pretty good CSM topic.  some college kids running a
         scam through Alibaba (chinese ebay), took in a good amount of
         money. 

         If we had some good 'redism' related incidents, maybe I could write
         on that, but we'd need some very concise points to make. 

         Let me know what you guys think of this and the surveillance camera
         topic.

         Jen, I assume that Trapwire is a competitor to Cisco, but I'm not
         sure.  I don't know if trapwire makes the actual cameras or just
         does the analysis.   I won't have real questions till morning. 

         On 7/2/11 11:00 AM, Kevin Stech wrote:

           Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in fraud probe

           02 July 2011 - 08H10 

           http://www.france24.com/en/20110702-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-fraud-probe

            

           AFP - Police have arrested 36 people in southeast China following
           an investigation into fraud on e-commerce site Alibaba.com and
           other websites that duped buyers out of more than $6 million.

            

           Alizila.com, Alibaba's corporate news website, reported earlier
           this week the suspects were detained in Fujian province's Putian
           city in April. John Spelich, the firm's spokesman, confirmed the
           report to AFP on Saturday.

            

           The people arrested allegedly operated a criminal gang that used
           fake IDs to open more than 100 "Gold Supplier" accounts on
           Alibaba.com. This designation is given to those certified as
           highly trusted suppliers by the firm.

            

           This allowed the suspects to pose as legitimate companies selling
           to overseas businesses that source goods through Alibaba.com.
           Police said the alleged scammers also used other international
           trading websites.

            

           Alibaba.com, based in the eastern city of Hangzhou, has grown into
           one of China's largest Internet companies by matching mainland
           manufacturers and wholesalers with buyers around the world.

            

           But its reputation took a hit in February when the firm announced
           the resignation of chief executive David Wei and head of
           operations Elvis Lee after fraud was uncovered on the site.

            

           Wei and Lee were not involved in the scams but resigned because
           they took responsibility for "systemic breakdowns" that allowed
           the fraud to happen, Alibaba said at the time.

            

           But according to the Alizila report, the fraud was "sometimes
           abetted by Alibaba.com employees." But Spelich said Saturday none
           of the 36 arrested worked at the company.

            

           He added the number of fraud complaints received by the website in
           June was down 70 percent from February after Alibaba toughened
           procedures and other security measures.

            

           The report said Alibaba had refunded $1.9 million to those who
           lost their money to the alleged scammers.

           Click here to find out more!

            

           Kevin Stech

           Director of Research | STRATFOR

           kevin.stech@stratfor.com

           +1 (512) 744-4086

            

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 15:59:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3398110_re-eastasia-os-china-csm-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>zhixing.zhang@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3405213</id>
    <title>[alpha] Fw: Oslo
</title>
    <description>   Trapwire

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:00:28 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Oslo

   My money's on a Libyan connection.

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 18:04:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3405213_-alpha-fw-oslo-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3422133</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [OS] CHINA/CT/MIL - Chinese army develops drug to
 keep soldiers awake for up to 72 hours - paper
</title>
    <description>   thats how why the cartels are so hardcore

   On 10/17/11 8:24 AM, Jose Mora wrote:

     Last time I checked this was called "crack"

     On 10/17/11 8:15 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

    Chinese army develops drug to keep soldiers awake for up to 72 hours -   
    paper                                                                    
                                                                             
    Text of report headlined "PLA eyes 'night eagle' to make army of night   
    owls" published by Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post website  
    on 16 October                                                            
                                                                             
    The People's Liberation Army (PLA) [Chinese army] has opened up a new    
    front in the war against sleep.                                          
                                                                             
    It has developed a drug that can keep its soldiers awake and active for  
    as long as 72 hours, state television reported yesterday. But its        
    scientists didn't disclose its ingredients.                              
                                                                             
    The anti-sleep drug - called Night Eagle - was unveiled as one of 600    
    scientific achievements in an exhibition marking the 60th anniversary of 
    the Academy of Military Medical Sciences. The China Central Television   
    report did not give further details about the new drug, such as any hint 
    of its composition, how it works or its possible side effects.           
                                                                             
    Instead, quoting academy researcher Wang Lin, it said the drug was       
    developed specifically for the military to help soldiers cope with sleep 
    deprivation during missions.                                             
                                                                             
    "Our troops will have to stay awake for a long time while being able to  
    maintain cognitive abilities when they are deployed in search and rescue 
    operations after earthquakes, floods and other disasters and some        
    special military missions," Wang said.                                   
                                                                             
    Analysts said the Night Eagle drug appeared similar to                   
    sleep-suppressants widely used by armed forces of other countries.       
                                                                             
    "Although I have no information about the newly invented drug, it is not 
    at all surprising to see efforts to control sleep and develop anti-sleep 
    technology because of their apparent practical uses in combat            
    situations," said Professor Ni Lexiong, a Shanghai-based military        
    expert.                                                                  
                                                                             
    "Whether our troops can deprive themselves of sleep hours or even days   
    longer than their opponents could make a major difference in combat," Ni 
    said.                                                                    
                                                                             
    Ni believed the PLA would not reveal the drug's composition or           
    associated experimental data, but said it probably worked the same way   
    as other stimulants developed in the West. Any possible side effects of  
    the drug were also unknown.                                              
                                                                             
    One popular military stimulant in the West is modafinil, which was       
    originally developed to treat narcolepsy but is now used by US, French,  
    British and Indian armed forces as an alternative to amphetamines, as    
    well as by students to fight fatigue.                                    
                                                                             
    Modafinil has been a popular lifestyle drug for people who want to       
    chemically turn off sleep with fewer side effects.                       
                                                                             
    Experts also said anti-sleep drugs were becoming more important hi-tech  
    aids and the US military reportedly developed a formulation that kept    
    soldiers awake for seven straight days and nights in the early 2000s.    
                                                                             
    Source: South China Morning Post website, Hong Kong, in English 16 Oct   
    11                                                                       
                                                                             
    BBC Mon AS1 ASDel ma                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4300 ex 4112

 --
 JOSE MORA
 ADP
 STRATFOR

 --
 Anthony Sung
 ADP STRATFOR
</description>
    <date>2011-10-17 15:25:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3422133_re-eastasia-os-china-ct-mil-chinese-army-develops-drug-to.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anthony.sung@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3423281</id>
    <title>Re: Surveillance Footage
</title>
    <description>Thanks for the effort despite the hiccups Michael.

The file is now uploaded and can be grabbed at:

https://files.me.com/mooney6023/xsv00c


--Mike

----- Original Message -----
&gt; 10-4 Thanks Mike.
&gt; 
&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt; From: Michael D. Mooney [mailto:mooney@stratfor.com]
&gt; Sent: Tuesday, February 15, 2011 10:32 AM
&gt; To: Fred Burton
&gt; Cc: Michael Maness
&gt; Subject: Re: Surveillance Footage
&gt; 
&gt; Hello Michael,
&gt; 
&gt; We have a FTP server at web.stratfor.com that will suffice for this
&gt; transfer.
&gt; 
&gt; You can reach it with:
&gt; 
&gt; FTP server: web.stratfor.com
&gt; username: ftp19
&gt; password: ticlt3st
&gt; 
&gt; Internet Explorer and some other browsers, particularly on an Apple,
&gt; can access the FTP server with this URL below. Clicking on this, in
&gt; many cases, will open up a "folder window" for you to drag the file
&gt; into to upload it.
&gt; 
&gt; ftp://ftp19:ticlt3st@web.stratfor.com/
&gt; 
&gt; Pop a reply to Fred and I if you successfully upload it.
&gt; 
&gt; If this does not work, or is beyond the scope of your expertise,
&gt; please let me know, I'll setup something easier. This is what I
&gt; already have on hand for extemporaneous large transfers.
&gt; 
&gt; Sincerely,
&gt; --
&gt; Michael Mooney
&gt; STRATFOR
&gt; mooney@stratfor.com
&gt; 512.744.4306
&gt; 
&gt; ----- Original Message -----
&gt; &gt; Hello Mike Mooney -
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; My old friend Mike Maness is trying to send me surveillance footage
&gt; &gt; of
&gt; &gt; a
&gt; &gt; terrorist captured on a video tape.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; But, the file is too big for our email, I think.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; Can you help?
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; I've gotta run out to a book signing, so I leave the matter in your
&gt; &gt; fine
&gt; &gt; hands to sort out w/Mike.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; Thanks, Fred
&gt; 
&gt; --
&gt; ----
&gt; Michael Mooney
&gt; mooney@stratfor.com
&gt; mb: 512.560.6577

-- 
----
Michael Mooney
mooney@stratfor.com
mb: 512.560.6577
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3423281_re-surveillance-footage-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mooney@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.maness@trapwire.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3423300</id>
    <title>Re: Surveillance Footage
</title>
    <description>Here we go, a little easier.

Go here in your web browser:

https://public.me.com/mooney6023


The password for guest access is 'pub333'

Click the "UP" arrow in the top middle of the screen, it will walk you thro=
ugh uploading your file.

--Mike


----- Original Message -----
&gt; Mike -- I'm on the Stratfor web page, but it=E2=80=99s not recognizing the
&gt; login and password you've sent.
&gt;=20
&gt;=20
&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt; From: Michael D. Mooney [mailto:mooney@stratfor.com]
&gt; Sent: Tuesday, February 15, 2011 10:32 AM
&gt; To: Fred Burton
&gt; Cc: Michael Maness
&gt; Subject: Re: Surveillance Footage
&gt;=20
&gt; Hello Michael,
&gt;=20
&gt; We have a FTP server at web.stratfor.com that will suffice for this
&gt; transfer.
&gt;=20
&gt; You can reach it with:
&gt;=20
&gt; FTP server: web.stratfor.com
&gt; username: ftp19
&gt; password: ticlt3st
&gt;=20
&gt; Internet Explorer and some other browsers, particularly on an Apple,
&gt; can access the FTP server with this URL below. Clicking on this, in
&gt; many cases, will open up a "folder window" for you to drag the file
&gt; into to upload it.
&gt;=20
&gt; ftp://ftp19:ticlt3st@web.stratfor.com/
&gt;=20
&gt; Pop a reply to Fred and I if you successfully upload it.
&gt;=20
&gt; If this does not work, or is beyond the scope of your expertise,
&gt; please let me know, I'll setup something easier. This is what I
&gt; already have on hand for extemporaneous large transfers.
&gt;=20
&gt; Sincerely,
&gt; --
&gt; Michael Mooney
&gt; STRATFOR
&gt; mooney@stratfor.com
&gt; 512.744.4306
&gt;=20
&gt; ----- Original Message -----
&gt; &gt; Hello Mike Mooney -
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; My old friend Mike Maness is trying to send me surveillance footage
&gt; &gt; of
&gt; &gt; a
&gt; &gt; terrorist captured on a video tape.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; But, the file is too big for our email, I think.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; Can you help?
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; I've gotta run out to a book signing, so I leave the matter in your
&gt; &gt; fine
&gt; &gt; hands to sort out w/Mike.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; Thanks, Fred
&gt;=20
&gt; --
&gt; ----
&gt; Michael Mooney
&gt; mooney@stratfor.com
&gt; mb: 512.560.6577

--=20
----
Michael Mooney
mooney@stratfor.com
mb: 512.560.6577
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3423300_re-surveillance-footage-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mooney@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.maness@trapwire.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3433718</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
	CODE
</title>
    <description>   Agree
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: scott stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:59:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;; Korena Zucha&lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Anya Alfano&lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   I'll bet cash they are connected to the Austin guys busted for the DNC
   plot plus some of the Austin Earth First jabronis. 
   From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 11:51:44 -0600
   To: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Anya Alfano &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;, Alpha List
   &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Have we seen Deep Green Resistance carry-out acts of violence in the
   past? 

   On 11/16/2011 6:38 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not "radical" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the "Phoenix Commune" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as "stupid, crazy motherfuckers", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, "Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-18 21:17:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3433718_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3434642</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged "Anonymous" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise "anonymous"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-10 19:47:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3434642_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3438302</id>
    <title>FW: CIA head of analysis fired
</title>
    <description>I wanted to forward these comments from George to the entire team so that
everyone at Stratfor is aware of the incredible opportunity/challenge we are
faced with. 

Iser 

-----Original Message-----
From: George Friedman [mailto:gfriedman@stratfor.com] 
Sent: Wednesday, December 29, 2004 9:13 AM
To: analysts@stratfor.com; exec@stratfor.com
Subject: CIA head of analysis fired

Jamie Miscik, Deputy Director of Intelligence at the CIA was fired today. As
DDI, she ran the analytic shop. According to media reports, she was fired
for squandering resources on day to day reports while ignoring the broad
trends. In other words, she was fired for looking at the trees and being
unable to see the forest. She was also accused of spending too much time
updating policy makers and too little time trying to grasp the broad
trends--giving customers what they wanted instead of what they needed. In
the end, it was her customers that turned on her.
My charge against her was and remains that she took no pride in her craft
and turned intelligence into PR and shoddy process. She and her gang are now
history.

This gives Stratfor an enormous, historic opportunity. The CIA model of
analysis has been invalidated. The ponderous, process driven machine that
could only manage the small things now needs to be replaced by a robust,
visionary, courageous analytic system. Stratfor has the opportunity to show
the way. In fact, we are showing the way. Everyone in Langley knows that we
do things they have never been able to do with a small fraction of their
resources. They have always asked how we did it. We can now show them and
maybe they can learn.

Our annual and decade forecast will, I guarantee you, be read by everyone at
the CIA. They are looking for new models and they are looking at us. Every
ounce of excellence that Stratfor owns will go into those two pieces. This
will not only be good business, it will serve our country. They will be a
road map to the craft of intelligence.

Allan Dulles said that intelligence was a craft. It is not a mass production
line. The architects of misbegotten process in intelligence have failed and
are out. It is our chance to step to the plate. It's a rare moment and I
want everyone in intelligence to take a break from working to think, dream
and imagine. This is our chance to do it right. 

It is Stratfor's chance to make intelligence history and build a major
business at the same time. It is a moment I have been waiting for--and knew
was coming--since 1996, when George Tenet was appointed DCI and Stratfor was
founded. I, for one, am going to show them how it's done. I invite each of
you to join me. This, ladies and gentlemen, is it.
</description>
    <date>2004-12-29 16:54:06</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3438302_fw-cia-head-of-analysis-fired-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>allstratfor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>iser@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3441906</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Qaddaffi out-sources jobs, going back to Carlos the Jackal.

   Ck the OS about 3-4 weeks ago, about Qaddaffi hiring mercs.

   The suspect could be ex-French Foreign Legion.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:30:48 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   Maybe, or he could be the Norwegian McVeigh.

   On 7/22/11 9:26 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     Mercenary
     Contract hit

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Hoor Jangda &lt;hoor.jangda@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:25:36 -0500 (CDT)
     To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
     the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
     height.

     On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

       Was the shooter a Libyan?

       On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:34:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3441906_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3444229</id>
    <title>RE: Weekly
</title>
    <description>   "Jeff and I will run the numbers"  did you miss this sentence?
    
   Welcome to STRATFOR, hope you have a nice kitchen table.  Now go sell
   something!
    
   Off line for the evening.
    
   Don R. Kuykendall
   President
   STRATFOR
   512.744.4314 phone
   512.744.4334 fax
   kuykendall@stratfor.com
    
   _______________________
    
   http://www.stratfor.com
   STRATFOR
   700 Lavaca
   Suite 900
   Austin, Texas 78701
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Jeff Stevens [mailto:jeff.stevens@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Saturday, August 22, 2009 5:24 PM
   To: Don Kuykendall; 'Exec'
   Cc: 'Grant Perry'; 'Richard Parker'
   Subject: Re: Weekly
   Since I'm the real tight wad around here I'll want to see some serious
   numbers before I think a DC office will work. I didn't shit my pants but I
   did get sick to my stomach when I read that. And I am not joking.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Don Kuykendall"
   Date: Sat, 22 Aug 2009 15:19:58 -0500 (CDT)
   To: 'Exec'&lt;exec@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Weekly

   INSTITUTIONAL SALES:
    
   We received the signed OSIS contract Thursday for $481,000 - Paid in full
   by September 30th.  This is a four year deal with a 4.5% increase each
   year.  Patrick got on the score board with a $10,000 IS to CP Chem
   (Chevron - Conoco Phillips JV) as well as a GV for $37,500.  August has
   been a good renewal month for IS - see dash.  Patrick and I are going to
   DC Tuesday to interview qualified candidates to sell into the Gov &amp; DoD. 
   Our new corporate presentation will come in handy.  Don't know if we'll
   hire one, two or three?  All are very qualified.  Richard comes on this
   week as an employee and Wednesday he said to me  "I feel responsible for
   bringing in $10,000,000 of new revenues to STRATFOR".  God that sounded
   good.  Let the work begin.
    
   CORPORATE SALES:
    
   I mentioned above the CP Chem deal.  Patrick and I have meetings in DC
   with Cubic Corporation, Siemens, and Washing Analysis (owned by Glass
   Lewis) all of which has assets in the "stans".  We are trying to leverage
   our Oscar contract.  First meetings, nothing more.  All companies have
   large employee base to sell corporate website license. 
    
   Looks like we signed a deal with Abraxas (TrapWire) just in time. 
   Involved contract but the bottom line is that we are marketing our IS
   through providing their customers via sit reps and if we land anything we
   give them a 8% finders fee.  In return we introduce them to companies, we
   get an 8% finders fee.  Well, guess what, this is one of Fred's "pet"
   companies and Fred has said that, once he is #2 dude in the Texas DPS
   (September oneth) that he is going use the appropriated $1,500,000 to
   install TrapWires product on the Texas border.  George, 8% X $1,500,000 =
   $120,000 for the good guys.  Now, this all could be a wet dream, but
   stranger things have happened.  Also, Fred has said that the second area
   he wants to use TrapWire is on the Houston Channel, which would be much
   larger.  Maybe we can get some of the payback from Fred as insurance from
   lawsuits that have got to hit us from his social list comments!
    
   OTHER:
    
   I am going to send a non-binding letter of intent to 1300 Guadalupe
   building this week.  We need to put our relocation in first gear.  We'll
   see their counter.  I am asking for the world.  If they accept it then
   they are so dumb I wouldn't move in!  Gotta start some where, might as
   well be in our back yard.
    
   I had a terrific conversation with Reva Friday with Peter's knowledge.  It
   was a Reva and Marko initiative.  I'll cut to the chase.  Reva and Marko
   want to help our "new" sales guys (including Debora) become better
   equipped and educated on how the life blood (analyst) of our company works
   so that they can be better prepared to pitch a sale.  Much more to it, but
   son of a bitch they are thinking right on.  This comes at a very perfect
   time as we hire more sales people.....which brings us to......
    
   a need for a DC office.  Jeff just shat his pants.....let's think.  Reva,
   Nate, Karen - in DC, ALL have expressed an interest in having somewhere to
   camp.  If we hire one, two or three SALES PEOPLE in DC, what a better
   opportunity to make certain they are programmed the STRATFOR way than to
   have they exposed daily to our operation.  Example, Nate Taylor is a major
   stud, Carey Grant opportunities BUT does he really know us?  No.  That is
   a sales disadvantage.  Patrick talks to him daily....Patrick has been here
   4 months...We need Nate in Austin to maximize his contribution to our
   company.  Nothing fancy, but a home base.  Jeff and I will run the
   numbers..........we can take some of Richard's new TEN MILL for a security
   deposit!  You guys never thought you would hear this from me, did you? 
   Eh?  The tight wad, loosens.... a bit.
    
   -Don
    
   Don R. Kuykendall
   President
   STRATFOR
   512.744.4314 phone
   512.744.4334 fax
   kuykendall@stratfor.com
    
   _______________________
    
   http://www.stratfor.com
   STRATFOR
   700 Lavaca
   Suite 900
   Austin, Texas 78701
    
</description>
    <date>2009-08-23 00:35:22</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3444229_re-weekly-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>jeff.stevens@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>exec@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>grant@evolutionstrategies.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>rparker@parker-media.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3451573</id>
    <title>L's email for 2nd 09 trip
</title>
    <description>7</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3451573_l-s-email-for-2nd-09-trip-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mooney@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/142/142381_Research Center Victor Voksanaeva.doc</path><size>28160</size><md5></md5><sha1>fe0262c585c816827011fe135ffedf8468dec367</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/142/142382_Social Systems Institute.doc</path><size>28672</size><md5></md5><sha1>ee4742ac9d636e9cd3f9888d296c638a5eda4af2</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/142/142383_Goodrich.pdf</path><size>168149</size><md5></md5><sha1>fbcb5991f834763c742a3bde1349e8e88c73d093</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/142/142384_IISEPS.doc</path><size>115712</size><md5></md5><sha1>7dc397afcf904a9ddca956a5d1435cc67fc75be0</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/142/142385_Russian Research Sources.doc</path><size>70144</size><md5></md5><sha1>d74d08e305202771fb9536115d7032b5fa3c1505</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/142/142386_November09.pdf</path><size>432515</size><md5></md5><sha1>bdc5637055214b00020b571fb1a108bb7538cf13</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/142/142387_Institute for Economies in Transition.doc</path><size>55808</size><md5></md5><sha1>a675537b89d3c69e8c3559a86bea424ce4371f6b</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/142/142388_Insitute of Far Eastern Studies Russian Academy of Sciences.doc</path><size>359424</size><md5></md5><sha1>76b75dcd0119dd91d228e45535aed08dfdd9bb34</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/142/142389_Lauren Goodrich Voucher.pdf</path><size>72882</size><md5></md5><sha1>bfad5457aad30dc1e5059124b6821e015bfbff1e</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/142/142390_confirmation_pick upGoodrich.pdf</path><size>897402</size><md5></md5><sha1>4ed341d769322068c7acc68568347ef3ffa1deaa</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/142/142391_IMEMO.doc</path><size>191488</size><md5></md5><sha1>02f093676675a9b8308e44f1c503d394a275f800</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/142/142392_image001.jpg</path><size>12456</size><md5></md5><sha1>a716d544c59c868e0fa881467be15ca2462c24c5</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/142/142393_INVOICE  USD for Lauren Goodrich.pdf</path><size>103198</size><md5></md5><sha1>5c9fdcf916d4005909bd05624072f5c31de14c0f</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/142/142394_Payment agreem.doc</path><size>352768</size><md5></md5><sha1>9cf2772c41ffb1bca9bd8aa5354c73e2c41da94d</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/142/142395_result.pdf</path><size>590294</size><md5></md5><sha1>dbb1f0164c9a04a8e8e06b8396d90e248a9e5baa</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/142/142396_Russian Institute of Strategic Studies.doc</path><size>109056</size><md5></md5><sha1>faa3a5d984e0e68b67bbed9b4e46cec1d03fb9d5</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/142/142397_Kazakhstan Groups.doc</path><size>45568</size><md5></md5><sha1>a7d51c99bfd6705a21c6f8dde870048abb226278</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/142/142398_Institute for Political and Military Analysis.doc</path><size>34816</size><md5></md5><sha1>7c5e7e8648f53a47647319fd23e8991f6418b347</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3452194</id>
    <title>Insight - Blowback  ** internal use only ** 
</title>
    <description>   A very good source just informed me that extremely quiet discussions are
   underway between DHS and the FBI on the blowback to the Jewish community,
   facilities, synagogues, day-cares, et al in the United States, in the
   event of an Israeli strike on Iran.   
    
   Note --
    
   From my lips to your ears.  I would imagine that my good friend BB
   Netanyahu told Obama what the Sword of Gideon has in store for the Iranian
   menace.  I also have it on good word that BB trusts Obama about as much as
   he trusted Arafat or Waddi Haddad. 
</description>
    <date>2009-11-10 23:15:19</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-27 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3452194_insight-blowback-internal-use-only-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3452384</id>
    <title>Executive Weekly Report
</title>
    <description>   Following is my report for the week:

   1. Product Development. The new Intelligence offering will begin flowing
   over the weekend to the site (invisible to subscribers and members).
   Mockups are begin drawn up for a beta offering, including a new landing
   page for STRATFOR Global Information Services (GIS). I'd like to thank
   Maverick, Sledge and Kimber for hard work and creativity. My goal is that
   a largely functional beta with both Intelligence and Analysis will be up
   by 12/20/09, suitable for demo to prospects. Much will be up to Grant, his
   team and web designer.

   2. GIS. We began delivering today the first of a flow of long-form content
   to Trapwire, a syndication arrangement authored by Patrick. Trapwire is
   paying the company a percentage of attributable revenues, I believe and we
   will furnish short and longer-form content as part of this arrangement
   with projected mid-six figure revenues and eventual seven-figure revenues,
   as I understand it. Thanks to JT Lensing and Kimber on this for delivering
   for the launch of their new live site.

   3. Production. I'd like to pay homage to Kristen Cooper, Maverick Fisher,
   Mike Marchio, Ben Sledge and Kimber Wigley; for the last two weeks I've
   had the pleasure of working with them throughout the day, particularly at
   10:15 a.m. and 2:00 p.m., in George's operations center. All have brought
   great knowledge, judgment and decisions to bear under the pressure of
   breaking events, resource and time constraints. The result is, I believe,
   both greater insight about what we're producing as well as greater
   competitiveness and in Week 3 an emphasis on even greater quality. You
   might not know this but, subject to events and new intelligence, the
   production of both B2B and B2C information is planned through Wednesday of
   next week - and beyond.

   4. Marketing. The N2K campaign is nearing its end for 2009, which has been
   a test run. If I understand Patrick correctly there is about a $50,000 in
   real near-term business opportunity that has resulted, obviously subject
   to close. I'd like to say thanks to him and to Kelly Tryce; they have
   defined the focus of an on-the-fly campaign as well as to Kimber,
   Elizabeth and Molly for churning out collateral and campaigns that
   would've cost us $250,000 otherwise; Laurie has netted three editorial
   boards and a few placements. The bottom-line results have yet to be seen
   and I'll be watching for that with Patrick and Darryl.

   5. 2010. My budgeting is a bit behind schedule but I foresee an
   incremental budget increase in 2010. I hope to move Kimber to an editorial
   function as the interim B2B producer; the rest is just moving the other
   two folks to paid hourly intern status. In addition, I hope to lay on --
   pending revenue performance -- a focused advertising and event schedule to
   support B2B sales; should that all prove a scenario would include bringing
   in a full-time marketeer.
</description>
    <date>2009-12-12 02:03:35</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3452384_executive-weekly-report-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>exec@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>richard.parker@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3452549</id>
    <title>Re: ATTN: Mail Server outage from 5:30p CDT (roughly) till 8pm CDT
 - No data loss, just delayed email delivery during the outage
</title>
    <description>Nope physical failure.  One dead network switch.

On 1/13/10 20:58 , Fred Burton wrote:
&gt; ChiCom attack?   
&gt;
&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt; From: Michael Mooney [mailto:mooney@stratfor.com] 
&gt; Sent: Wednesday, January 13, 2010 8:56 PM
&gt; To: allstratfor@stratfor.com
&gt; Subject: ATTN: Mail Server outage from 5:30p CDT (roughly) till 8pm CDT - No
&gt; data loss, just delayed email delivery during the outage
&gt;
&gt; Due to a hardware failure at the server facility mail service was
&gt; interrupted for STRATFOR employees for a window of time this evening.
&gt;
&gt; The offending hardware, a network switch, has been replaced.
&gt;
&gt; No mail was lost, and any mail that you sent during the outage will deliver
&gt; successfully.
&gt;
&gt; Sincerely,
&gt; Michael Mooney
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;   
</description>
    <date>2010-01-14 04:02:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-20 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3452549_re-attn-mail-server-outage-from-5-30p-cdt-roughly-till-8pm.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mooney@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3453059</id>
    <title>Weekly Report
</title>
    <description>   Corporate

    

   Chevron's 50 page contract arrived on Tuesday. Don has signed and Jeff has
   invoiced the full amount of $79,120.  Payment is max of 30 days but I will
   stay on my contact to expedite.  They have offered to get us login and
   access to their electronic payment system "Ariba" next week. We had our
   kickoff conference call with them today.

    

   All the paperwork for VCU-Qatar GV monitoring is complete and Jeff's team
   has invoiced the first amount for payment.  VCU indicated payment should
   be within two weeks.

    

   Merck reengaged with Korena and me Tuesday about GV monitoring and
   forecast.  They have narrowed their scope to 12 from 100 countries and
   only want a quarterly forecast of the 12 countries.  Timing of bringing
   them on board would be 5 months or as early as 3.  Merck says our
   forecasting is what sets us apart from any other service provider they
   intend to use.

    

   St. Jude's Medical, Inc. is a backburner type opportunity as well.  After
   discussing the companies needs with the Security Director, he is in the
   due diligence mode for cost and services and wants to move away from
   current provider SOS Intl under Control Risk.  Won't happen until late
   this year.

    

   Lockheed Martin is slow but the interest is still there. Emails and calls
   went unanswered this week after the big boss returned on Wednesday but
   this is not an indicator of lack of interest.  Will stay on them.  Ron is
   working other LM divisions and contacts that have prior Army SF
   backgrounds.

    

   Nate is going to a Petroleum conference in Houston next week which is a
   very good networking and biz opportunity for us.  Over 800 companies
   within the oil industry will have booths and reps there.  Word from folks
   at companies attending the NAPE Expo say it is the best in the industry
   for Biz Dev.  The expo's purpose is to put business people together.  Bob
   and I discussed the issue about Nate going and cost is an issue since it
   is $325 per person.  Nate is very adept at working a room and meeting
   people cold.  He will do well and bring back a ton of leads for all of us
   to follow-up on.  He also used his personal contacts and got an invite to
   a private cocktail party hosted by Giuliani's law firm Thursday night.

    

   Institutional

    

   Fred has monitored and helped get Trapwire back on track with TX. Monies
   are now committed again so work will be coming.  Timing is still fluid.
    Thanks to Fred, he also talked up Trapwire to the Security Director of
   SalesForce in San Francisco.  I had lunch with Trapwire's Sales Director
   last week to pass all the info and brainstorm about other opportunities.

    

   Melanie and Ron are making a push to meet folks at Georgetown and George
   Mason universities.  They will be dropping by offices next week,
   Wednesday.

    

   Nate made significant progress with TCU licensing after Provost directed
   him to Librarian to get it done.  Librarian says they will look at their
   budget and determine whether they can do it now or by the summer.  UT is
   progressing well, Nate is now talking to Librarians with all of his
   support from Deans and professors. He traded phone calls and emails with
   Baylor Librarian.

    

   Federal

    

   Melanie had several meetings scheduled for Friday but VA declared a state
   of emergency for the pending blizzard conditions. DEA Academy, Training
   Coordinator had to cancel her meeting with Mel on licensing as well as
   USDA Graduate School meeting. She continued to call and meet with other
   staffers on House Committee which continues to show promise and interest
   in licensing with us. Her near term opportunities are still the Bureau's
   WMD Counter Prolif unit for licensing and EB's and Dunbar library
   licensing at DIA.

    

   Melanie will be concentrating on ATF Training Academy, Peace Corps, World
   Bank's IMF and the library there too, next week. She knows the head
   librarian there.

    

   Ron is meeting Marine Corps contact and take a tour of Henderson Hall
   where the March 4th briefing will take place and get a sense of its venue
   and technology for presentations.  We have received 5 different units
   within the Army that are interested in licensing and STRATFOR's products. 
   Ron and I are addressing each one but this is helping build a case for
   Army wide-licensing. Interest is coming from 3rd Special Forces Group,
   Army Spec Warfare Center, and others.

    

   Ben talked with Laredo Border Patrol Sector Intelligence Group to discuss
   access to Stratfor at Sector level - this came from me contacting
   individual users.   There is interest there so he will be contacting all
   20 Border Patrol Sectors across the US next week.  He Followed up on all
   responses thus far from his email campaign to generate leads and spoke
   with individuals in:  Secret Service, Customs and Border Protection, NASA,
   ICE, TSA, USITC, Energy.  He sent a proposal to the Treasury's Technical
   Assistance Office for 30 users, $8100. 

    

   Ben also has a meeting next week with the Deputy Director of Strategic
   Requirements, Capabilities, and Assessments Division in the Office of
   Strategic Plans of DHS along with one of his colleagues  He feels this is
   something where we can pitch Fred's ideas for an analysis of terrorist
   surveillance methodology. Once Fred has his bullet points on the analysis
   we can market it.

    
</description>
    <date>2010-02-07 18:17:36</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3453059_weekly-report-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>exec@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>patrick.boykin@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3453261</id>
    <title>Weekly
</title>
    <description>    
   Business
    
    1)  Positive developments continue with TrapWire in light of the Texas
   State Capital shooting.   The grant money was released this week ($1.2
   million) per the Director of the DPS/Texas Rangers.  We should see the
   system roll out fairly soon.  I've pushed the matter behind-the-scenes
   w/the Director and the DPS Commissioners.  One of my former guys has been
   transferred back to the Capital from Intelligence to review all aspects of
   security.  His first priority is TrapWire.  I chatted with him off and on
   this week.  As a reminder, there is a Phase Two which calls for a roll out
   of TrapWire for the DPS Campus, key locations statewide, like Weslaco.  
    
   2) Budget permitting, I sent a request to the brain trust to consider
   letting Korena attend the Rocky Mountain Security/Energy Conference in
   Colorado in May.  The "who's who" of the oil, chemical and gas sector will
   attend.   We approved Korena going last year, but the conference was
   canceled due to snow.  A fair number of S4 subscribers will be there, but
   a fertile pool of others will also attend.  Threat information will also
   be exchanged with various presentations.  Good place to work the margins
   from an analysis perspective.  I gave a keynote to this group in Houston
   awhile back.   A large number of state and federal agencies also show. 
    
   3) Still think we need to pursue the on-line college market after hearing
   this week that more and more federal agents are taking classes at AMU,
   Henley-Putnam, Norwich.   Homeland Security, Terrorism, National Security
   studies are all approved for agents and analysts to attend.  
    
   4) Helped Bridgestone Tire today with an arson in Harlingen, Texas.  Gang
   jabronis are torching their tire factory.  They will be back for
   business.   The VP for Security is a fan.  
    
   5) Ziff Brothers Investment has hired a new director of security at
   $600,000.  The dude -- who is a friend of mine and Stick's -- was lured
   away from George Soros.  It's a small world.  Soros (who is crazy) will
   now be looking for a new man.  With luck, we can get someone we know
   placed into that job.  The old boy network has been invaluable for
   information or intelligence on various issues.    
    
    
   Tactical
    
   Another chaotic week:  Iranian scientist whacked in Iran follow up;
    
   Mossad smoked a Hamas leader in Dubai (we are trying to figure out more); 
    
   U.S. aviation plot simmers along and the Feds believe another attack is in
   the works. 
    
   Anya was in town.  It was good to see her.  Her attention to detail is
   unsurpassed. 
    
    
   Media
    
   1) Spoke to an award winning National Geographic producer on background
   concerning ICE, border violence and threats to Texas.  He is doing a
   special on ICE primarily and wants to film me later this month.   The
   producer got to me after watching the Gangland series or the other one I
   did for the History Channel.  Can't recall which one.   I did ask him for
   copies of the mags that show the naked women running through the Serengeti
   Plains...
    
   2) Discussions w/Fox News LA for a live TV shot Monday. 
    
   3) KVUE Austin wants to do a special on Capital security next week. 
    
   4) Stick and I will be filmed by The Discovery Channel Feb 11/12 on
   terrorism. 
    
    
   Other
    
   My father-in-law  will have surgery Tuesday at MD Anderson.  Will be
   out-of-pocket but on my Crackberry.       
    
   Ghost film script treatment has been sent to the movie mogul.  Time will
   tell, but I'm more optimistic this time around.  We'll see.   I'm a glass
   half empty guy. 
    
    
    
    
    
</description>
    <date>2010-01-30 04:44:37</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3453261_weekly-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>exec@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3453645</id>
    <title>Weekly Report
</title>
    <description>   Corporate:  Lockheed Martin folks are still not back from trip, but talked
   with assistant and they are due back in office this coming Wednesday.  All
   the paperwork for Chevron LATAM GV is completed on our end that was
   requested by them.  Their contract should be delivered to us for review
   and signature early next week with invoice instructions.  VCU-Qatar was
   invoiced Friday and should be paying within 2 weeks from Doha.  Still
   awaiting a decision from Las Vegas Sands.  The delay doesn't look
   promising that they will sign off on the GV but still haven't heard a
   definitive answer. I will reach out to them again Monday.

    

   I am getting closer to GV's and licensing with several companies such as
   Green House Builders, Lubrizol.  St. Judes Medical, Inc. Global Security
   Director should be back this week from traveling and hope he is still
   interested in PI.

    

   Nate has started a targeted campaign on the oil sector in Houston.  Kelly
   and him are researching who uses STRATFOR products now.  He is still
   working with UT and Texas Tech for licensing. UN has asked Nate to provide
   paperwork with Jeff's help to establish STRATFOR as a vendor so they can
   approve the license Nate sent them for

    

   Federal:  Melanie had several meetings late Friday with House Committees
   on Friday such as the Foreign Affairs Council and Financial Services. 
   She's working out scheduling with the Director of USAID Mgmt Admin
   Services to meet with all the department heads at the same time.

    

   Rep from Alaska who is helping stand up their Fusion center called me and
   wanted all our information for licensing.  They hope to be up and running
   this fall.

    

   Ben reached out to former subscribers at Marshall Flight Center in NASA. 
   They would like to license a small group for $2,100.  Ben also received a
   pricing request from the US Navy's Sixth Fleet (Europe and Africa). One of
   the Admirals there said "Stratfor is good stuff and its being used at the
   Pentagon so we should be using it here."  They requested costs for users
   ranging from 50 to 500.

    

   Partnerships:  As Fred mentioned Abraxas is back on track to install
   Trapwire around the TX capitol area. Timing of work and their payment is
   still not nailed down.  Abraxas launched their new home page for their
   clients which now includes customized STRATFOR Sitreps displayed in our
   own placeholder on the home page.  Initial feedback from a few clients in
   the UK and Vegas was very positive.   We also included 3 STRATFOR analyses
   from Fred and Scott in Trapwire's Resource Library with a Call to Action
   for more reports and services.  Also a link to our Corporate Sales landing
   page is shown below all Sitreps.

    

   TASC is still mulling over their offer for us with respect to their
   contract and exclusivity with us. I am hoping to hear from them soon.

    

   Patrick Boykin

   Vice President

   Sales, Business Development

    

   STRATFOR

   Office: 512-744-4317

   Mobile: 512-965-6100

   www.stratfor.com

    
</description>
    <date>2010-01-31 19:39:46</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3453645_weekly-report-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>exec@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>patrick.boykin@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3454924</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
 CODE
</title>
    <description>   It might sound strange, but some of the most radical deep ecology people
   actually believe that there are too many people on the earth and that
   radical steps must be taken to reduce the population and save the earth.
    This strain of deep ecology is a clear reflection of the way the movement
   was heavily influenced by people like Martin Heidegger who were also
   committed to Nazism. Yes, Nazis were radical environmentalists.....
   From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 23:08:31 -0600
   To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Jesus I spent a couple of hours researching these guys - weird is an
   understatement. Apparently they met yesterday a couple of blocks away from
   my house to consolidate their leadership, go through basic indoctrination
   and plan more events. As far as I can tell, the Austin chapter is not
   nearly as radical as the central Lierre Keith DGR whose website is a
   treasure trove of incitment to passive resistance, blowing up energy
   infra, basic counter intel and legal guidance.

   Their ideology seems to be a mix of hardcore environmentalism, anarchism,
   radical feminism and the general notion that we need to go back living
   sustainably like the american indians by blowing up every pipeline and
   cell tower on the planet. Unlike the central DGR, Austin DGR doesn't seem
   to have defined targets and goals (their meeting yesterday was a
   brainstorming session on what radical environmentalism means in Austin).

   just a few nice quotes from their central website:

   The task of an activist is not to navigate systems of oppressive power
   with as much personal integrity as possible; it is to dismantle those
   systems.

   What would we do if Nazis had invaded, and they were vacuuming the oceans,
   scalping native forests, damming every river, changing the climate, and
   putting carcinogens into every mother's breast milk, and into the flesh of
   your children, your lover, your mother, into your own flesh? How much
   worse would the damage have to get? Would you resist? If there existed a
   resistance movement, would you join it?

   On 11/16/11 7:42 PM, Victoria Allen wrote:

     WHOA.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 18:38:01 -0600
     To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Cc: Anya Alfano&lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
     CODE
     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not "radical" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the "Phoenix Commune" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as "stupid, crazy motherfuckers", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, "Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-17 14:01:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3454924_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3455249</id>
    <title>Weekly Update
</title>
    <description>A flurry of press today (Friday) with CNN, Laredo Morning Times and
Reuters over MX narco
violence that stretches from Juarez to NL.  The tactical team did a very
good job of cutting through the fog to determine whether or not a VBIED
detonated in Juarez.  Job well done to Alex and The Stick.

My book is done and I'm plodding through edit changes from the
publisher.  I'm hopeful to be done very shortly and I thank you for your
patience.

Worked with Darryl on new office security plans; met with the new
security committee to discuss George's direction on better OPSEC.
Shared space in DC is an issue, but one that we have to deal with.

We need ALL execs to get PGP.

On the intel front, Russian spies, the Comrade J death and fall-out
drove a fair amount of work this week.

Met with Grant, Kyle, Stick and Jenna to discuss new business ideas or
portals for security and terrorism.  Fruitful discussion, I believe.

Spoke to my high school at Walmart this week.  Interesting factoid, WM
out-sourced $20 BILLION to vendors (not suppliers) last year.   Yes,
billion, not millions.  His job is to figure out a way to reduce that
figure.  Deloitte got the lions share of the $20 BILLION.

Korena and I met w/Mike Rosen, a friend of mine and Congressman McCaul's
gatekeeper about getting the Republicans (or at least McCaul) to buy a
portal.

TrapWire for the Great State of Texas is a go.  Cash should begin to
flow to Abraxas within 10 days.  As many of you old-timers know, we
arranged to get a cut.  I think the first dump is $250,000 to Abraxas,
with an annual renewal of $150,000 per year for the TrapWire license.
The point man for the project worked directly for me at DPS.  Abraxas
has done work already pro-bono as good will.  TrapWire may be the most
successful invention on the GWOT since 9-11.  I knew these hacks when
they were GS-12's at the CIA.  God Bless America.  Now they have EVERY
major HVT in CONUS, the UK, Canada, Vegas, Los Angeles, NYC as clients.
</description>
    <date>2010-07-16 21:31:26</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3455249_weekly-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>exec@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3455963</id>
    <title>RE: Weekly Report
</title>
    <description>   I can probably get to Sheldon Adelson.  What do you need? 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Patrick Boykin [mailto:patrick.boykin@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Saturday, February 20, 2010 11:32 AM
   To: 'Exec'
   Subject: Weekly Report

   Corporate

    

   Proposal submitted for a Threat Assessment on the upcoming Rodeo in
   Reliant Stadium for $16.5K.  Should have an answer by the end of next
   week. 

    

   Nate sent out 60 emails to each prospect deemed valuable from the NAPE
   Expo in Houston. He estimates there are good opportunities with approx
   25.  More to come as he gets feedback.

    

   Las Vegas Sands finally admitted they can't fund our proposal because of
   tight budgets and flat sales so far this year. I am on the hunt to network
   to Sheldon Adelson, chairman of the company.  Can't give up on it since
   all the wheels are greased except the CFO's.

    

   Don drove and I navigated to San Antonio to meet with Everardo Goyanes
   from Liberty Energy Holdings and Plains All American. What he really wants
   for now is net assessments on 16 countries they are interested in
   investing.  CIS would then follow if they need specific help within one of
   the 16.  Should have the list of 16 early next week and plan to have a
   conference with Korena and him as well.

    

   Lubirzol Corp librarian has gone silent on me re: licensing of 70 users. 
   Will be reaching out to COO who is a major STRATFOR fan.

    

   Ron and I have finally connected with Capture Teams at Lockheed Jeff
   Ellis.  Scheduling a conference call and followup with meeting March 2nd
   or 3rd.

    

   Federal

    

   Ron had a lunch meeting Monday with his good friend and former Deputy
   Chief of Staff of the Army.  The general confirmed what Ron and I had
   thought would be the most successful approach to licensing with the Army. 
   The Training and Doctrine (TRADOC) Command is where the Army's Cultural
   Learning Center is located.  The general will be providing a intro and
   meeting for Ron and me to the commander of TRADOC. We are requesting
   invites for TRADOC and their Cultural Center folks to Marine Briefing.

   Ron also made inroads to the Naval Research Laboratory and its Director in
   DC area via the Carabao Wallow. The Commanding Officer of Lab is very
   interested in getting all his 4000 personnel exposed to STRATFOR.  We will
   meet with him the first week in March.

    

   Ben is focusing on the fusion centers at the state level next week.  One
   of the California Fusion centers has submitted his proposal for $4000 in
   licensing.  He also is following up with 5 Border Patrol sectors that have
   expressed interest in licensing.  Ben is pressing for a decision from the
   Navy's 6th Fleet next week for $5700 to $18K depending on the number of
   users they want licensed.

    

   Melanie spent the week concentrating on near term opportunities such as
   FBI WMD licensing. She also made good headway into other agencies.  The
   new Chief Technology Officer for the FBI is a good contact of hers that
   she worked with before on their CT database.  He will be meeting with her
    

    

   IARPA - Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Office within the Dept of
   National Intelligence has been cropping up in recently.  Nate had a
   meeting with a professor at UT that is involved with them and interested
   in what we can help him with on a contract he has thru them.  I also was
   contacted by the Program manager at IARPA for  Incisive Analysis. I have
   an initial call with him on Monday morning.  Nate, Fred and I have a
   meeting with UT professor Monday am as well. Obviously, I am skeptical
   that it might devolve into another Poker fiasco in 2007/2008, so I am on
   guard.

    

   Ron received the attached flyer the Marine Corps sent out for our briefing
   on March 4th. Most of you have seen it, but some haven't.

    

   International

    

   Nate is waiting to hear from South African Airways any day now. 

    

   Partnerships

   Fred's introduction of Trapwire to SalesForce has connected the two.  Will
   know more after the initial conference call next week.

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2010-02-20 19:51:47</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3455963_re-weekly-report-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>exec@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>patrick.boykin@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3464416</id>
    <title>Re: Encryption Guidance
</title>
    <description>   Is this what you are thinking? Does it need to be more detailed? What
   types of content am I missing?

   PGP should be emphasized and enforced for all executives and other
   employees designated by their supervisors. Content that fits into the
   following categories should be encrypted although this list is not
   all-inclusive. Should there be any doubt about whether something you are
   writing should be encrypted, err on the side of caution and encrypt it
   anyway.
   o    Company financial data, to include budgets and forecasts
   o    Certain client names and related contract details as deemed necessary
   by Meredith Friedman and Beth Bronder. Note that the use of code names,
   which will also be determined by Meredith and Beth along with  the
   Briefers, is not a replacement for using PGP.
   o    Sensitive personnel information, to include salaries and
   health-related information 
   o    Sensitive sourcing insight. For any questions about which of your
   sources may fit into this category, please contact Stick.
   o    CEO travel itinerary, including flight and hotel information and
   dates of travel
   o    Sensitive executive-level discussions

   On 10/11/2010 8:58 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

 Korena, Would you have time to tackle a draft ?

 scott stewart wrote:

 IT doesn't have to be super long, but we should tell people that we
 need to use encryption whenever we are dealing with very sensitive
 insight, client information, etc. and maybe provide a couple notional
 examples.

 *From:* burton@stratfor.com [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
 *Sent:* Monday, October 11, 2010 8:33 AM
 *To:* Scott Stewart; 'Korena Zucha'
 *Cc:* Michael D. Mooney; Korena Zucha; Anya Alfano
 *Subject:* Re: Encryption Guidance

 Suggestions?

 I know PGP doesn't work on lists.

 Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

 ------------------------------------------------------------------------

 *From: *"scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;

 *Date: *Mon, 11 Oct 2010 08:17:45 -0400

 *To: *'Korena Zucha'&lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;; &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;

 *Cc: *'Michael D. Mooney'&lt;mooney@stratfor.com&gt;; 'Korena
 Zucha'&lt;korena.zucha@stratfor.com&gt;; 'Anya Alfano'&lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;

 *Subject: *RE: Encryption Guidance

 We need detailed guidance for our employees.

 *From:* Korena Zucha [mailto:zucha@stratfor.com]
 *Sent:* Monday, October 11, 2010 12:06 AM
 *To:* burton@stratfor.com
 *Cc:* Michael D. Mooney; Scott Stewart; Korena Zucha; Anya Alfano
 *Subject:* Re: Encryption Guidance

 It was included in the security recs doc but was very top level. What
 else do we need?

 PGP should be emphasized and enforced for all executives and other
 designated employees. This should be applied for all employees dealing
 with all things sensitive, financial, client-related (scope of work
 and financial), CEO travel, and other executive-level sensitive
 discussions as deemed necessary.

 On 10/10/2010 1:09 PM, burton@stratfor.com
 &lt;mailto:burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

 We need to send out guidance on when to use encryption.
 
 Believe we did that not to long ago? 
 
 
 Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2010-10-11 20:46:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3464416_re-encryption-guidance-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mooney@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anya.alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3465016</id>
    <title>[Fwd: Re: Question]
</title>
    <description>I'll follow up tomorrow with DPS, but can't recall our percentage of the
deal.

Maybe Don recalls?

I know we do get a cut.

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: Re: Question
Date: Mon, 5 Jul 2010 19:34:25 -0500
From: Sawyer, Blake &lt;Blake.Sawyer@txdps.state.tx.us&gt;
To: &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;

Pretty much.  The first purchase order is pending release of the rfo
from legal, which should happen in the next day or two.  Then we have to
wait 21 days before the pre_deployment briefing.  Give me a ring
tomorrow afternoon if you get a chance.

----- Original Message -----
From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
To: Sawyer, Blake
Sent: Mon Jul 05 19:02:27 2010
Subject: Question

Hello Blake,

Is TrapWire still on track?

Thanks,

Fred
</description>
    <date>2010-07-06 02:38:36</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3465016_-fwd-re-question-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>exec@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3465191</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Once we do know, then we will know who was behind it.

   Until then, this is all conjecture and opinion.  And you know what
   opinions are like.

   On 7/22/11 9:13 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     We don't know

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:12:04 -0500 (CDT)
     To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
     Was the shooter a Libyan?

     On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:15:11</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3465191_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3466948</id>
    <title>Weekly
</title>
    <description>   INSTITUTIONAL SALES:
    
   We received the signed OSIS contract Thursday for $481,000 - Paid in full
   by September 30th.  This is a four year deal with a 4.5% increase each
   year.  Patrick got on the score board with a $10,000 IS to CP Chem
   (Chevron - Conoco Phillips JV) as well as a GV for $37,500.  August has
   been a good renewal month for IS - see dash.  Patrick and I are going to
   DC Tuesday to interview qualified candidates to sell into the Gov &amp; DoD. 
   Our new corporate presentation will come in handy.  Don't know if we'll
   hire one, two or three?  All are very qualified.  Richard comes on this
   week as an employee and Wednesday he said to me  "I feel responsible for
   bringing in $10,000,000 of new revenues to STRATFOR".  God that sounded
   good.  Let the work begin.
    
   CORPORATE SALES:
    
   I mentioned above the CP Chem deal.  Patrick and I have meetings in DC
   with Cubic Corporation, Siemens, and Washing Analysis (owned by Glass
   Lewis) all of which has assets in the "stans".  We are trying to leverage
   our Oscar contract.  First meetings, nothing more.  All companies have
   large employee base to sell corporate website license. 
    
   Looks like we signed a deal with Abraxas (TrapWire) just in time. 
   Involved contract but the bottom line is that we are marketing our IS
   through providing their customers via sit reps and if we land anything we
   give them a 8% finders fee.  In return we introduce them to companies, we
   get an 8% finders fee.  Well, guess what, this is one of Fred's "pet"
   companies and Fred has said that, once he is #2 dude in the Texas DPS
   (September oneth) that he is going use the appropriated $1,500,000 to
   install TrapWires product on the Texas border.  George, 8% X $1,500,000 =
   $120,000 for the good guys.  Now, this all could be a wet dream, but
   stranger things have happened.  Also, Fred has said that the second area
   he wants to use TrapWire is on the Houston Channel, which would be much
   larger.  Maybe we can get some of the payback from Fred as insurance from
   lawsuits that have got to hit us from his social list comments!
    
   OTHER:
    
   I am going to send a non-binding letter of intent to 1300 Guadalupe
   building this week.  We need to put our relocation in first gear.  We'll
   see their counter.  I am asking for the world.  If they accept it then
   they are so dumb I wouldn't move in!  Gotta start some where, might as
   well be in our back yard.
    
   I had a terrific conversation with Reva Friday with Peter's knowledge.  It
   was a Reva and Marko initiative.  I'll cut to the chase.  Reva and Marko
   want to help our "new" sales guys (including Debora) become better
   equipped and educated on how the life blood (analyst) of our company works
   so that they can be better prepared to pitch a sale.  Much more to it, but
   son of a bitch they are thinking right on.  This comes at a very perfect
   time as we hire more sales people.....which brings us to......
    
   a need for a DC office.  Jeff just shat his pants.....let's think.  Reva,
   Nate, Karen - in DC, ALL have expressed an interest in having somewhere to
   camp.  If we hire one, two or three SALES PEOPLE in DC, what a better
   opportunity to make certain they are programmed the STRATFOR way than to
   have they exposed daily to our operation.  Example, Nate Taylor is a major
   stud, Carey Grant opportunities BUT does he really know us?  No.  That is
   a sales disadvantage.  Patrick talks to him daily....Patrick has been here
   4 months...We need Nate in Austin to maximize his contribution to our
   company.  Nothing fancy, but a home base.  Jeff and I will run the
   numbers..........we can take some of Richard's new TEN MILL for a security
   deposit!  You guys never thought you would hear this from me, did you? 
   Eh?  The tight wad, loosens.... a bit.
    
   -Don
    
   Don R. Kuykendall
   President
   STRATFOR
   512.744.4314 phone
   512.744.4334 fax
   kuykendall@stratfor.com
    
   _______________________
    
   http://www.stratfor.com
   STRATFOR
   700 Lavaca
   Suite 900
   Austin, Texas 78701
    
</description>
    <date>2009-08-22 22:19:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3466948_weekly-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>exec@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>grant@evolutionstrategies.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>rparker@parker-media.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3470116</id>
    <title>RE: LA Terror Plot (not for pub - pls do not forward)  
</title>
    <description>   The surveillance detection was identified by the TrapWire surveillance
   system.    I'm getting the details on the recons and m.o.   The matter is
   very dicey.  Pls don't pass this around.  Thanks  

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, September 22, 2010 8:33 PM
   To: secure@stratfor.com
   Subject: LA Terror Plot (not for pub - pls do not forward)
   According to a very good source responsible for domestic surveillance
   operations, an extremely serious al Qaeda terror plot has been uncovered
   targeting a financial institution, an entertainment center and a
   government office bldg in Los Angeles.  The same terrorist surveillance
   team conducted pre-operational surveillance of all three sites.   The
   group is currently under watch....
    
   Note -- The NSC has refused disclosure due to the election.  Gotta love
   it.  I'll know more tomorrow. 

   No virus found in this incoming message.
   Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
   Version: 9.0.851 / Virus Database: 271.1.1/3152 - Release Date: 09/22/10
   01:34:00
</description>
    <date>2010-09-23 23:54:36</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3470116_re-la-terror-plot-not-for-pub-pls-do-not-forward-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3473600</id>
    <title>RE: [Fwd: Re: Question]
</title>
    <description>8% on ALL invoices. 


Don R. Kuykendall
Chairman of the Board
STRATFOR
512.744.4314 phone
512.744.4334 fax
kuykendall@stratfor.com
 
_______________________
 
http://www.stratfor.com
STRATFOR
700 Lavaca
Suite 900
Austin, Texas 78701

-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
Sent: Monday, July 05, 2010 7:39 PM
To: exec
Subject: [Fwd: Re: Question]

I'll follow up tomorrow with DPS, but can't recall our percentage of the
deal.

Maybe Don recalls?

I know we do get a cut.

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: Re: Question
Date: Mon, 5 Jul 2010 19:34:25 -0500
From: Sawyer, Blake &lt;Blake.Sawyer@txdps.state.tx.us&gt;
To: &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;

Pretty much.  The first purchase order is pending release of the rfo from
legal, which should happen in the next day or two.  Then we have to wait
21 days before the pre_deployment briefing.  Give me a ring tomorrow
afternoon if you get a chance.

----- Original Message -----
From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
To: Sawyer, Blake
Sent: Mon Jul 05 19:02:27 2010
Subject: Question

Hello Blake,

Is TrapWire still on track?

Thanks,

Fred
</description>
    <date>2010-07-06 03:13:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3473600_re-fwd-re-question-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>exec@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3474981</id>
    <title>Weekly Executive Report
</title>
    <description>    
   Business 
    
   Big shout out to Patrick for sealing the deal on Hunt Oil.  The security
   man is retired DPS and bought a PI/GV deal.  Great work.  Never thought
   the cheap SOB would buy anything, but he did.  Patrick, Korena and I also
   chatted w/Nick Smith from Merck about business.  Nick and I go back to the
   CIA.  Patrick is optimistic.   I think they will buy something.   
    
   We need to light a fire under Abraxas/TrapWire.  I do think the Great
   State of Texas would buy more TrapWire systems if someone kissed a few
   very fat arses inside the State Capital Bldg.   Key Senators like Corona
   are Fred Burton fans and control the purse strings on gobs of Homeland
   Security monies.  Thank God for Rick Perry.  If the dumb ass Longhorns and
   Hutchinson fans vote him out of office we are FUBR (Don, pls take note.)  
   The Aggies love guns and lawmen.  The Horns love daisies and demos. 
    
   Korena and I also made our yearly pilgrimage to Dell to speak to John
   Schaeffer's global team.  I wanted to introduce Korena to the group in
   case I get whacked by El Chapo or the Arab menace finally hunts me down. 
   Dell is in a tizzy over the purchase of Perot Systems and have come to the
   conclusion Old Man Perot is one fry short of a Happy Meal.   Dell expects
   Perot's control over the Red Chinese health care records/systems will
   somehow make Dell money.  I think Obama stimulus money is paying for
   Chinese health care records...will alert Anderson Cooper. 
    
    
    Security
    
   To brighten your day, I'm mulling over training scenarios for shooter in
   the office space and proper evacuation.  Tactically, our existing office
   space is vulnerable to a field of fire/choke point by the elevators.  One
   gunman w/a shoulder weapon could cover both exits by the elevator.  In
   listening to a review this week on the Orlando and Ft. Hood attacks, lives
   were saved by a forceful response (attacking the shooter); and in
   Orlando's case by locking doors and hunkering down.  The latter may be our
   best course of action in the event of an attack inside our current
   space.    Regardless, whether we like it or not, we need a drill, so stay
   tuned.   
    
   Tactical
    
   As reported last week, Stick and I have designed a major case study model
   for our current staff focusing on key assassinations, bombings,
   hijackings, attacks, espionage accompanied by selected reading lists.   
   George's desire to train the next generation of Stratfor men and women is
   long overdue.  Assassinations are the first topic.  What fun!  Nothing
   better than a real whodunit.   Maybe we will plan an assassination?  I can
   remember standing in the Punjab desert staring at the Zia crash and saying
   to myself, "Holy shit.  What do I do now?"  In Tactical, one learns by
   doing and studying the HOW.  We have rolled out the training program and
   will begin classroom next week.  Appears to me that folks are excited
   about the shift.  Our great briefers (Korena and Anya) will attend as time
   permits and so will Aaron and Jen Richmond.     I think Rodger wants to
   dabble.  More the merrier, although I would not want to be a member of any
   club that would have me as a member.  Pls feel free to participate in the
   training as your schedule permits.   Should we have a vote on what Exec
   needs to be kidnapped and held hostage as part of a training scenario? 
    
    
   Media 
    
   Fielded numerous press inquiries this week which ranged from radio to
   print to TV on topics that ranged from Ft. Hood to Border violence (KVUE,
   KXAN, BELO, WTOP, Federal News, Reuters)  
    
   Kyle is doing good work keeping the interviews rolling in and helping me
   stay on track.   Keep hoping he will get me on The Playboy Channel. 
    
   Misc
    
   Adm. John Poindexter sent a response into us on the T weekly.  Stick did a
   wonderful job responding to the old Cold Warrior.  The man is like
   Angleton.   Think about our audience?  Kissinger, Poindexter, Eagleburger,
   Gen. Dozier (kidnapped by the Red Brigades). These dudes are smart enough
   to read anybody and choose to read us.   Scary and also humbling.  
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
</description>
    <date>2009-11-13 19:17:44</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3474981_weekly-executive-report-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>exec@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3478856</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [OS] CHINA/CT/MIL - Chinese army develops drug to
 keep soldiers awake for up to 72 hours - paper
</title>
    <description>   scifi comingn true

   On 10/17/11 8:15 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

    Chinese army develops drug to keep soldiers awake for up to 72 hours -   
    paper                                                                    
                                                                             
    Text of report headlined "PLA eyes 'night eagle' to make army of night   
    owls" published by Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post website  
    on 16 October                                                            
                                                                             
    The People's Liberation Army (PLA) [Chinese army] has opened up a new    
    front in the war against sleep.                                          
                                                                             
    It has developed a drug that can keep its soldiers awake and active for  
    as long as 72 hours, state television reported yesterday. But its        
    scientists didn't disclose its ingredients.                              
                                                                             
    The anti-sleep drug - called Night Eagle - was unveiled as one of 600    
    scientific achievements in an exhibition marking the 60th anniversary of 
    the Academy of Military Medical Sciences. The China Central Television   
    report did not give further details about the new drug, such as any hint 
    of its composition, how it works or its possible side effects.           
                                                                             
    Instead, quoting academy researcher Wang Lin, it said the drug was       
    developed specifically for the military to help soldiers cope with sleep 
    deprivation during missions.                                             
                                                                             
    "Our troops will have to stay awake for a long time while being able to  
    maintain cognitive abilities when they are deployed in search and rescue 
    operations after earthquakes, floods and other disasters and some        
    special military missions," Wang said.                                   
                                                                             
    Analysts said the Night Eagle drug appeared similar to                   
    sleep-suppressants widely used by armed forces of other countries.       
                                                                             
    "Although I have no information about the newly invented drug, it is not 
    at all surprising to see efforts to control sleep and develop anti-sleep 
    technology because of their apparent practical uses in combat            
    situations," said Professor Ni Lexiong, a Shanghai-based military        
    expert.                                                                  
                                                                             
    "Whether our troops can deprive themselves of sleep hours or even days   
    longer than their opponents could make a major difference in combat," Ni 
    said.                                                                    
                                                                             
    Ni believed the PLA would not reveal the drug's composition or           
    associated experimental data, but said it probably worked the same way   
    as other stimulants developed in the West. Any possible side effects of  
    the drug were also unknown.                                              
                                                                             
    One popular military stimulant in the West is modafinil, which was       
    originally developed to treat narcolepsy but is now used by US, French,  
    British and Indian armed forces as an alternative to amphetamines, as    
    well as by students to fight fatigue.                                    
                                                                             
    Modafinil has been a popular lifestyle drug for people who want to       
    chemically turn off sleep with fewer side effects.                       
                                                                             
    Experts also said anti-sleep drugs were becoming more important hi-tech  
    aids and the US military reportedly developed a formulation that kept    
    soldiers awake for seven straight days and nights in the early 2000s.    
                                                                             
    Source: South China Morning Post website, Hong Kong, in English 16 Oct   
    11                                                                       
                                                                             
    BBC Mon AS1 ASDel ma                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4300 ex 4112

 --
 Anthony Sung
 ADP STRATFOR
</description>
    <date>2011-10-17 15:24:19</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3478856_re-eastasia-os-china-ct-mil-chinese-army-develops-drug-to.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anthony.sung@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3479917</id>
    <title>weekly
</title>
    <description>   Corporate Intelligence:
    
   We have an agreement in principle with Abraxas (TrapWire) to provide
   "streaming sitreps" to their clients via their desktop/homepage by the end
   of July.  Their clients include Scotland Yard, #10 Downing, the White
   House, and many MNC's.  This is big time QSM.  This will get us front and
   center to corporations and governments to sell IS.  Our consideration is
   introducing them to companies like Wal Mart, Dell and other Fred cronies. 
   Fred made the introduction, Patrick figured out the business deal. 
    
   We have also expanded our relationship with Deloitte to start providing
   "some" of their customers with geopolitical intelligence similar to what
   the Eurasia group does with Price Waterhouse.  This is in the early stages
   but feels good.  Again - QSM working here.
    
   We also have a couple of opportunities with MNC - LyondellBasell - out of
   their Mexico subsidiary pertaining to Venezuela.  One - a $28,000 "easy"
   one and another in the hands of Peter to determine the effort and
   $$$$$$$$$ from me after getting the info.  Also out there with
   LyondellBasell is a biggie we priced at $300,000 which is centered around
   Fred's cashing in some chits in Mexico.  This has nothing to do with time
   spent - it's all about introductions to the right people which is VALUE to
   LyondellBasell.  This is "easy money" and therefore has low probability of
   getting done.  LyondellBasell is loosing between $1,500,000 and $5,000,000
   / year on the local Mexicans skimming production from one of their plants
   in Mexico.  I'm not counting on this.  The company is taking our proposal
   to their Board next week.
    
   Institutional Sales:
    
   One of the things we are getting Nate to do is study other's pricing for
   IS.  Once we get the dossier we can go head to head (I hope, with Janes
   and Oxford Anaylitica's pricing model.  THINK BIG:  Check out the pricing
   for OA.
    

   From: Nate Taylor [mailto:nhtaylor1998@yahoo.com]
   Sent: Friday, May 22, 2009 1:30 AM
   To: Patrick Boykin
   Subject: Fw: Oxford Analytica - Follow Up

    

   Wow, look at these prices!  We are clearly under priced.

   Nate

    

   ----- Forwarded Message ----
   From: Mark Elsner &lt;melsner@oxford-analytica.com&gt;
   To: nhtaylor1998@yahoo.com
   Sent: Thursday, May 21, 2009 11:18:07 PM
   Subject: Oxford Analytica - Follow Up

   Dear Nate,

    

   Many thanks for contacting Oxford Analytica, and for taking the time to
   talk again with us yesterday. Please allow me to summarise the key
   features of the service (which may be useful in your discussions with your
   colleagues), and, below, the prices:

    

   Key features of the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief service:

    

   - daily publication of eight articles (approximately 1,000 words) and
   20-25 executive summaries (one paragraph each);

    

   - 24-year fully searchable archive of daily analysis (over 30,000
   articles);

    

   - up-to-date rolling assumptions on key geopolitical and macroeconomic
   issues in each country (also on 66 countries, expanding to more);

   - periodic open conference calls; and

   - a web site interaction button for asking questions to our analysts.

   In case you require further detail, please see the attached 10-slide power
   point presentation. I would also be glad to arrange a call or live online
   'WebEX' demonstration of the service for any of your colleagues, if that
   would be useful.

   The normal annual prices of the full Oxford Analytica Daily Brief service
   are as follows: 

   1 user: US$ 23,200 / year

   20 users: US$ 114,400 / year

   50 users: US$ 143,600 / year 

   100 users: US$ 173,200 / year 

   Thank you again for your interest. If you need any further information,
   please do not hesitate to let me know.

   With best regards,

   Mark Elsner

    

   Vice President, Business Development

   Oxford Analytica

   1069 Thomas Jefferson Street, NW

   Washington, DC 20007

   Tel. 202 729 6964

   Cell 202 299 6641

   Fax 202 342 2868

    

   Sure, there are differences but not so much in the product as in the
   price!  It's the packaging.  We have the Quality, we need the Status, and
   deffiently have the Mystic.

    

   I will see you Tuesday.  I am traveling back to Austin Monday.

    

   Love,

    

   -Don

   .
   Don R. Kuykendall
   President
   STRATFOR
   512.744.4314 phone
   512.744.4334 fax
   kuykendall@stratfor.com
    
   _______________________
    
   http://www.stratfor.com
   STRATFOR
   700 Lavaca
   Suite 900
   Austin, Texas 78701
    
</description>
    <date>2009-05-31 21:00:29</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3479917_weekly-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>exec@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3481092</id>
    <title>Re: Surveillance Footage
</title>
    <description>It's not actually a web page, it's a FTP server.

ftp://ftp19:ticlt3st@web.stratfor.com/

Try clicking on the above, it should open a window you can drag the video i=
nto.

I'm putting together another solution right now and will have a different s=
et of instructions shortly.  Let me know if the above works.

--Mike

----- Original Message -----
&gt; Mike -- I'm on the Stratfor web page, but it=E2=80=99s not recognizing the
&gt; login and password you've sent.
&gt;=20
&gt;=20
&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt; From: Michael D. Mooney [mailto:mooney@stratfor.com]
&gt; Sent: Tuesday, February 15, 2011 10:32 AM
&gt; To: Fred Burton
&gt; Cc: Michael Maness
&gt; Subject: Re: Surveillance Footage
&gt;=20
&gt; Hello Michael,
&gt;=20
&gt; We have a FTP server at web.stratfor.com that will suffice for this
&gt; transfer.
&gt;=20
&gt; You can reach it with:
&gt;=20
&gt; FTP server: web.stratfor.com
&gt; username: ftp19
&gt; password: ticlt3st
&gt;=20
&gt; Internet Explorer and some other browsers, particularly on an Apple,
&gt; can access the FTP server with this URL below. Clicking on this, in
&gt; many cases, will open up a "folder window" for you to drag the file
&gt; into to upload it.
&gt;=20
&gt; ftp://ftp19:ticlt3st@web.stratfor.com/
&gt;=20
&gt; Pop a reply to Fred and I if you successfully upload it.
&gt;=20
&gt; If this does not work, or is beyond the scope of your expertise,
&gt; please let me know, I'll setup something easier. This is what I
&gt; already have on hand for extemporaneous large transfers.
&gt;=20
&gt; Sincerely,
&gt; --
&gt; Michael Mooney
&gt; STRATFOR
&gt; mooney@stratfor.com
&gt; 512.744.4306
&gt;=20
&gt; ----- Original Message -----
&gt; &gt; Hello Mike Mooney -
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; My old friend Mike Maness is trying to send me surveillance footage
&gt; &gt; of
&gt; &gt; a
&gt; &gt; terrorist captured on a video tape.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; But, the file is too big for our email, I think.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; Can you help?
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; I've gotta run out to a book signing, so I leave the matter in your
&gt; &gt; fine
&gt; &gt; hands to sort out w/Mike.
&gt; &gt;
&gt; &gt; Thanks, Fred
&gt;=20
&gt; --
&gt; ----
&gt; Michael Mooney
&gt; mooney@stratfor.com
&gt; mb: 512.560.6577

--=20
----
Michael Mooney
mooney@stratfor.com
mb: 512.560.6577
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3481092_re-surveillance-footage-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mooney@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>michael.maness@trapwire.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3481100</id>
    <title>RE: Fwd: PGP Quote and killing the STRATFOR communication encryptionissues with a big stick
</title>
    <description>Because it would make it a lot harder. Why do you have locks on you doors a=
nd an alarm system in my home even though they would not stop a serious thi=
ef?  Why not just leave the keys in your Hummer?=20=20



-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]=20
Sent: Sunday, April 25, 2010 7:03 PM
To: Michael Mooney
Cc: Scott Stewart
Subject: Re: Fwd: PGP Quote and killing the STRATFOR communication encrypti=
onissues with a big stick

I don't see the Americans getting our folks killed.=20=20

I see the Chinese shutting us down one day.

If we assume we are compromised, why should we complicate business?

-----Original Message-----
From: Michael Mooney &lt;mooney@stratfor.com&gt;
Date: Sun, 25 Apr 2010 18:00:52=20
To: &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
Cc: Scott Stewart&lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
Subject: Re: Fwd: PGP Quote and killing the STRATFOR communication encrypti=
on
 issues with a big stick

You left out the American's. But I suppose that is such a given it's not
worth mentioning.

On 4/25/10 17:54 , Fred Burton wrote:
&gt; I think its reasonable to assume the Chinese, Russians, Israelis and Hezb=
ollah have access to our site, so I'm wondering why we should go down any e=
ncryption route?   If we assume our comms are compromised, would PGP make a=
 difference?=20=20=20
&gt;
&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt; From: "Michael D. Mooney" &lt;mooney@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; Date: Sun, 25 Apr 2010 13:51:13=20
&gt; To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; Subject: Fwd: PGP Quote and killing the STRATFOR communication encryption=
 issues with a big stick
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; Sent from my iPhone
&gt;
&gt; Begin forwarded message:
&gt;
&gt;=20=20=20
&gt;&gt; From: Michael Mooney &lt;mooney@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt; To: burton@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt; Subject: Fwd: PGP Quote and killing the STRATFOR communication=20=20
&gt;&gt; encryption issues with a big stick
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;=20=20=20=20=20
&gt;=20=20=20
&gt;&gt; Fred,
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; I had a conversation with Stick regarding this quote (attached) from=20=
=20
&gt;&gt; PGP
&gt;&gt; corporation (and their reseller) this morning to test the waters.=20=20=
=20=20
&gt;&gt; I'd
&gt;&gt; like to talk to you about it at your convenience.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; After quite a bit of time looking for any other solution than the=20=20
&gt;&gt; pricey
&gt;&gt; one, I've finally decided this is the best way to permanently kill our
&gt;&gt; PGP woes.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; PGP corp reps have mostly sold me on this as a solution, now I want to
&gt;&gt; run it by you, and if you are interested then George.   This is a
&gt;&gt; significant enough investment that we should only pursue it if our
&gt;&gt; frustration with our current PGP deployment warrants it.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; It has become clear to me that this will kill 90% or more of our PGP
&gt;&gt; challenges.  It also offers us some new features like blackberry
&gt;&gt; encryption, the ability to communicate securely with outside users=20=20
&gt;&gt; with
&gt;&gt; no pgp at all, an auditing system (which we can discuss), and a=20=20
&gt;&gt; "escrow"
&gt;&gt; system that works akin to a missile silo (2 or more individuals=20=20
&gt;&gt; required
&gt;&gt; to access another individuals encrypted data), and several other=20=20
&gt;&gt; features.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Really though, my primary interest in this solution lies in the top=20=
=20
&gt;&gt; down
&gt;&gt; management to the PGP deployment it provides, it's an enterprise
&gt;&gt; solution, and the simplicity of use it provides to the common user.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Please let me know when we can take a moment to discuss this.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; --Mike
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; -------- Original Message --------
&gt;&gt; Message-ID:    &lt;4BCF3C35.2060900@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt; Date:    Wed, 21 Apr 2010 12:56:05 -0500
&gt;&gt; From:    Michael Mooney &lt;mooney@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt; Organization:    STRATFOR
&gt;&gt; User-Agent:    Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; U; Intel Mac OS X 10.6; en-US;
&gt;&gt; rv:1.9.1.9) Gecko/20100317 Thunderbird/3.0.4
&gt;&gt; MIME-Version:    1.0
&gt;&gt; To:    scott.stewart@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt; Subject:    PGP Quote and killing the STRATFOR communication=20=20
&gt;&gt; encryption
&gt;&gt; issues with a big stick
&gt;&gt; X-Enigmail-Version:    1.0
&gt;&gt; OpenPGP:    id=3D7B170D4F
&gt;&gt; Content-Type:    multipart/mixed;
&gt;&gt; boundary=3D"------------070902090701020406070506"
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Hey Stick,
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Per my phone conversation I'd like a chance to discuss this quote with
&gt;&gt; you and the features provided and issues resolved by this solution.
&gt;&gt; Optimally we would both be completely sold on this as the best=20=20
&gt;&gt; solution
&gt;&gt; for our encryption needs before I present this to George.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; With that in mind I'd like to sell you on it and also work with you to
&gt;&gt; address any concerns I might have missed.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; I think a phone meeting sometime this week would be extremely useful.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Thanks,
&gt;&gt; ----
&gt;&gt; --Mike
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; -------- Original Message --------
&gt;&gt; Subject:    PGP Quote
&gt;&gt; Date:    Wed, 21 Apr 2010 14:22:14 +0000
&gt;&gt; From:    David Love &lt;david.love@anidirect.com&gt;
&gt;&gt; To:    mooney@stratfor.com &lt;mooney@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Michael,
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Thank you for your time this morning. The quote is attached for your
&gt;&gt; review.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Also, please send the brief paragraph outlining your Zimbra-based
&gt;&gt; network architecture when you have time. In the meantime, I=C3=A2=E2=82=
=AC=E2=84=A2m going=20=20
&gt;&gt; to
&gt;&gt; bring it up with my engineers now so they can start researching it.=20=
=20
&gt;&gt; Then
&gt;&gt; if you would like to send us a more thorough document, that will be
&gt;&gt; gladly accepted (in a few days). We may or may not have an answer by
&gt;&gt; then and will let you know if we do.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Regards,
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; David Love
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; ANI Direct
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; 214-764-6567 office
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; 972-974-2324 cell
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; 972-385-9771 Fax
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; david.love@anidirect.com &lt;mailto:david.love@anidirect.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; www.anidirect.com &lt;http://www.anidirect.com/&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; *Host, Perimeter, &amp; Data Loss Prevention Network Security Specialist*
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;=20=20=20=20=20
</description>
    <date>2010-04-26 02:46:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-20 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3481100_re-fwd-pgp-quote-and-killing-the-stratfor-communication.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mooney@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3488256</id>
    <title>RE: Weekly Executive Report
</title>
    <description>   I'm not sure the arsehole can write. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Patrick Boykin [mailto:patrick.boykin@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, November 13, 2009 1:01 PM
   To: 'Darryl O'Connor'; 'Fred Burton'; 'exec'
   Subject: RE: Weekly Executive Report

   Waiting on the signature.

    

   From: Darryl O'Connor [mailto:oconnor@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, November 13, 2009 1:00 PM
   To: 'Fred Burton'; 'exec'
   Subject: RE: Weekly Executive Report

    

   Hunt deal is not sealed.  Looking good, but not sealed.  I'm from Missouri
   and need a customer committment before i say "sealed".... Fred used to be
   that way, too.

   I think that sabatical working for state govt turned his mind to mush.

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, November 13, 2009 12:18 PM
   To: 'exec'
   Subject: Weekly Executive Report

    

   Business 

    

   Big shout out to Patrick for sealing the deal on Hunt Oil.  The security
   man is retired DPS and bought a PI/GV deal.  Great work.  Never thought
   the cheap SOB would buy anything, but he did.  Patrick, Korena and I also
   chatted w/Nick Smith from Merck about business.  Nick and I go back to the
   CIA.  Patrick is optimistic.   I think they will buy something.   

    

   We need to light a fire under Abraxas/TrapWire.  I do think the Great
   State of Texas would buy more TrapWire systems if someone kissed a few
   very fat arses inside the State Capital Bldg.   Key Senators like Corona
   are Fred Burton fans and control the purse strings on gobs of Homeland
   Security monies.  Thank God for Rick Perry.  If the dumb ass Longhorns and
   Hutchinson fans vote him out of office we are FUBR (Don, pls take note.)  
   The Aggies love guns and lawmen.  The Horns love daisies and demos. 

    

   Korena and I also made our yearly pilgrimage to Dell to speak to John
   Schaeffer's global team.  I wanted to introduce Korena to the group in
   case I get whacked by El Chapo or the Arab menace finally hunts me down. 
   Dell is in a tizzy over the purchase of Perot Systems and have come to the
   conclusion Old Man Perot is one fry short of a Happy Meal.   Dell expects
   Perot's control over the Red Chinese health care records/systems will
   somehow make Dell money.  I think Obama stimulus money is paying for
   Chinese health care records...will alert Anderson Cooper. 

    

    

    Security

    

   To brighten your day, I'm mulling over training scenarios for shooter in
   the office space and proper evacuation.  Tactically, our existing office
   space is vulnerable to a field of fire/choke point by the elevators.  One
   gunman w/a shoulder weapon could cover both exits by the elevator.  In
   listening to a review this week on the Orlando and Ft. Hood attacks, lives
   were saved by a forceful response (attacking the shooter); and in
   Orlando's case by locking doors and hunkering down.  The latter may be our
   best course of action in the event of an attack inside our current
   space.    Regardless, whether we like it or not, we need a drill, so stay
   tuned.   

    

   Tactical

    

   As reported last week, Stick and I have designed a major case study model
   for our current staff focusing on key assassinations, bombings,
   hijackings, attacks, espionage accompanied by selected reading lists.   
   George's desire to train the next generation of Stratfor men and women is
   long overdue.  Assassinations are the first topic.  What fun!  Nothing
   better than a real whodunit.   Maybe we will plan an assassination?  I can
   remember standing in the Punjab desert staring at the Zia crash and saying
   to myself, "Holy shit.  What do I do now?"  In Tactical, one learns by
   doing and studying the HOW.  We have rolled out the training program and
   will begin classroom next week.  Appears to me that folks are excited
   about the shift.  Our great briefers (Korena and Anya) will attend as time
   permits and so will Aaron and Jen Richmond.     I think Rodger wants to
   dabble.  More the merrier, although I would not want to be a member of any
   club that would have me as a member.  Pls feel free to participate in the
   training as your schedule permits.   Should we have a vote on what Exec
   needs to be kidnapped and held hostage as part of a training scenario? 

    

    

   Media 

    

   Fielded numerous press inquiries this week which ranged from radio to
   print to TV on topics that ranged from Ft. Hood to Border violence (KVUE,
   KXAN, BELO, WTOP, Federal News, Reuters)  

    

   Kyle is doing good work keeping the interviews rolling in and helping me
   stay on track.   Keep hoping he will get me on The Playboy Channel. 

    

   Misc

    

   Adm. John Poindexter sent a response into us on the T weekly.  Stick did a
   wonderful job responding to the old Cold Warrior.  The man is like
   Angleton.   Think about our audience?  Kissinger, Poindexter, Eagleburger,
   Gen. Dozier (kidnapped by the Red Brigades). These dudes are smart enough
   to read anybody and choose to read us.   Scary and also humbling.  

    

    

    

    

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2009-11-13 20:03:32</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3488256_re-weekly-executive-report-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>oconnor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>exec@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>patrick.boykin@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3488389</id>
    <title>Re: London Terror Surveillance (not for pub)
</title>
    <description>   Good question. I don't know. Will ask.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2010 19:21:20 -0500
   To: Secure List&lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: London Terror Surveillance (not for pub)
   granted we have a strong theory about the GCHQ/MI6 officer who was killed,
   but could this person or persons conducting surveillance have been
   involved?

   (though it really does look like the GCHQ guy locked himself in a bag and
   couldn't get out....)
   Fred Burton wrote:

     aQ terrorist surveillance has been positively identified outside of MI6
     Hqs in London.  MI5 is monitoring the terrorist suspect observed
     conducting the pre-operational surveillance.   
      
      

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-09-24 02:22:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-16 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3488389_re-london-terror-surveillance-not-for-pub-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3492328</id>
    <title>Weekly
</title>
    <description>    
   Business
    
   Korena is working w/Nate on an intruiging terrorism project that comes by
   way of a spook group at UT, if we can handle the matter w/in the Tactical
   group w/out impact or disruption to our staff.    We have stumbled upon a
   DARPA black ops group operating from within the confines of the Longhorn
   Nation which I find shocking since I would expect the rednecks at College
   Station to be engaged in such nefarious matters.  As a taxpayer I'm
   outraged, but as a Stratfor man it could mean moolah (slang for cash money
   Don.) 
    
   Now that our brilliant Gov (perhaps our next POTUS?) has won the GOP
   primary, I would assume there should be nothing holding the TrapWire
   roll-out back.  The footdragging were concerns over the cost, leaks from
   the Hutchinson Camp, the liberal Dems and Mexican Mafia, in an effort to
   sabotage the Gov's primary bid.   The chances of the Dems winning the Gov
   race in Texas is about as good as me being in the next NASA mission to the
   moon.  
    
   Tactical
    
   Three main issues took center stage this week:   The Pentagon shooting;
   fall-out from the Dubai Mossad hit and the never ending, but highly
   escalated Border violence mess as Mexico continues to swirl around the
   bowl.  I would expect readers to begin looking towards Stratfor for
   wanting to know whether or not Little Johnny should be allowed to go to MX
   on a Spring Break junket.  For the most part, one needs to be mentally
   disturbed for taking any non-essential trips into Mexico.   It would not
   surprise me in the least for Mexico to suffer a Natalie Holloway style
   kidnapping this go around, i.e., some blue-eyes blonde sorority sister
   from UT goes missing.   If this happens, Mexico is done.  300,000 Juarez
   residents alone have fled into El Paso due to the violence.  I'm trying to
   figure out how to get all the fleeing Mexicans eligible to vote so when I
   run for Congress they will support me!   Perhaps a promise of a burrito in
   every pot?  See, I'm a caring guy.   Govt jobs?  Damn, Obama has already
   tried that...
    
   Our Tactical Training has gone off track due to urgent issues for the
   website (attacks, explosions, the constant Arab Menace, etc.) so Stick and
   I have been taking the opportunity to train the lads on the finer points
   of murder using the Dubai case as a study.   
    
   Press
    
   CBS Radio  Dallas - Pentagon Shooter
   CBS Radio Los Angeles - Pentagon Shooter
   KCBS Radio - San Fran - Pentagon Shooter
   WTOP Radio DC - Pentagon Shooter 
   KUT/NPR - Austin suicide pilot
   Stratfor video - Tradecraft follow up on Dubai assassination
    
    
</description>
    <date>2010-03-06 00:34:48</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3492328_weekly-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>exec@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3492915</id>
    <title>RE: Weekly Executive Report
</title>
    <description>   Hunt deal is not sealed.  Looking good, but not sealed.  I'm from Missouri
   and need a customer committment before i say "sealed".... Fred used to be
   that way, too.
   I think that sabatical working for state govt turned his mind to mush.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, November 13, 2009 12:18 PM
   To: 'exec'
   Subject: Weekly Executive Report
    
   Business 
    
   Big shout out to Patrick for sealing the deal on Hunt Oil.  The security
   man is retired DPS and bought a PI/GV deal.  Great work.  Never thought
   the cheap SOB would buy anything, but he did.  Patrick, Korena and I also
   chatted w/Nick Smith from Merck about business.  Nick and I go back to the
   CIA.  Patrick is optimistic.   I think they will buy something.   
    
   We need to light a fire under Abraxas/TrapWire.  I do think the Great
   State of Texas would buy more TrapWire systems if someone kissed a few
   very fat arses inside the State Capital Bldg.   Key Senators like Corona
   are Fred Burton fans and control the purse strings on gobs of Homeland
   Security monies.  Thank God for Rick Perry.  If the dumb ass Longhorns and
   Hutchinson fans vote him out of office we are FUBR (Don, pls take note.)  
   The Aggies love guns and lawmen.  The Horns love daisies and demos. 
    
   Korena and I also made our yearly pilgrimage to Dell to speak to John
   Schaeffer's global team.  I wanted to introduce Korena to the group in
   case I get whacked by El Chapo or the Arab menace finally hunts me down. 
   Dell is in a tizzy over the purchase of Perot Systems and have come to the
   conclusion Old Man Perot is one fry short of a Happy Meal.   Dell expects
   Perot's control over the Red Chinese health care records/systems will
   somehow make Dell money.  I think Obama stimulus money is paying for
   Chinese health care records...will alert Anderson Cooper. 
    
    
    Security
    
   To brighten your day, I'm mulling over training scenarios for shooter in
   the office space and proper evacuation.  Tactically, our existing office
   space is vulnerable to a field of fire/choke point by the elevators.  One
   gunman w/a shoulder weapon could cover both exits by the elevator.  In
   listening to a review this week on the Orlando and Ft. Hood attacks, lives
   were saved by a forceful response (attacking the shooter); and in
   Orlando's case by locking doors and hunkering down.  The latter may be our
   best course of action in the event of an attack inside our current
   space.    Regardless, whether we like it or not, we need a drill, so stay
   tuned.   
    
   Tactical
    
   As reported last week, Stick and I have designed a major case study model
   for our current staff focusing on key assassinations, bombings,
   hijackings, attacks, espionage accompanied by selected reading lists.   
   George's desire to train the next generation of Stratfor men and women is
   long overdue.  Assassinations are the first topic.  What fun!  Nothing
   better than a real whodunit.   Maybe we will plan an assassination?  I can
   remember standing in the Punjab desert staring at the Zia crash and saying
   to myself, "Holy shit.  What do I do now?"  In Tactical, one learns by
   doing and studying the HOW.  We have rolled out the training program and
   will begin classroom next week.  Appears to me that folks are excited
   about the shift.  Our great briefers (Korena and Anya) will attend as time
   permits and so will Aaron and Jen Richmond.     I think Rodger wants to
   dabble.  More the merrier, although I would not want to be a member of any
   club that would have me as a member.  Pls feel free to participate in the
   training as your schedule permits.   Should we have a vote on what Exec
   needs to be kidnapped and held hostage as part of a training scenario? 
    
    
   Media 
    
   Fielded numerous press inquiries this week which ranged from radio to
   print to TV on topics that ranged from Ft. Hood to Border violence (KVUE,
   KXAN, BELO, WTOP, Federal News, Reuters)  
    
   Kyle is doing good work keeping the interviews rolling in and helping me
   stay on track.   Keep hoping he will get me on The Playboy Channel. 
    
   Misc
    
   Adm. John Poindexter sent a response into us on the T weekly.  Stick did a
   wonderful job responding to the old Cold Warrior.  The man is like
   Angleton.   Think about our audience?  Kissinger, Poindexter, Eagleburger,
   Gen. Dozier (kidnapped by the Red Brigades). These dudes are smart enough
   to read anybody and choose to read us.   Scary and also humbling.  
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
</description>
    <date>2009-11-13 19:59:52</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3492915_re-weekly-executive-report-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>oconnor@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>exec@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3496753</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
	CODE
</title>
    <description>   Agree
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: scott stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:59:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;; Korena Zucha&lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Anya Alfano&lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   I'll bet cash they are connected to the Austin guys busted for the DNC
   plot plus some of the Austin Earth First jabronis. 
   From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 11:51:44 -0600
   To: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Anya Alfano &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;, Alpha List
   &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Have we seen Deep Green Resistance carry-out acts of violence in the
   past? 

   On 11/16/2011 6:38 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not "radical" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the "Phoenix Commune" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as "stupid, crazy motherfuckers", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, "Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-18 21:17:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3496753_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3496818</id>
    <title>Weekly
</title>
    <description>   Business
    
   Positive developments with TrapWire in light of the Texas State Capital
   shooting.  I chatted w/the DPS Director and lead Commissioner about the
   need to get this moving so one of my hand picked men was re-assigned today
   to move this off center.  Thank goodness for crazy people.  I wrote the
   master plan to cover all of the DPS bldgs statewide, so if we get one, the
   rest will fall in line.  
    
   Visited w/South African Nate (about UT website lead) and Darryl about the
   opportunities in the on-line educational market as it pertains to homeland
   security, terrorism, security and intelligence analysis courses.  There
   are thousands of US Govt hacks and DOD folks taking on-line courses at
   places like AMU and Henley-Putnam.  The dean at Henley-Putnam is an old
   USSS crony, as a side bar.   I also know one of his chief CIA
   instructors.  He uses Ghost for his surveillance classes.  I think we are
   a natural fit for these schools.  Showed Darryl a good number of the
   on-line courses that are wonderful.    There are approx. 100 schools with
   similar programs to include Kings College in London.   How do we sell them
   our products?  I got no idea.  But, I know how our work would be helpful
   to their students.   
    
   Tactical
    
   Fast-paced week with intel collected on Haiti, the second wave plot
   (aviation), domestic terror plots, Iranian scientist whacked by Lord knows
   who.  
    
   I've learned that AP has an undercover reporter in Iran.  I've used one of
   my AP contacts to task that source to look into the scientist killing. 
    
    
   Media
    
   WTOP radio; Univision (MX) tv on TX State Capital shooting; CNN Atlanta on
   background re Fusion centers.  
    
   An old interview on covert action inside Iran is also getting a fair
   amount of play in various blogs and websites. 
    
   Other
    
   My father-in-law is at MD Anderson for stomach cancer consultations (thank
   you for the help Don) and my wife is taking it pretty hard.  We don't know
   how bad off he may be and are awaiting further tests.  I may need to pop
   down there next week for awhile.   He's a tough old man who has drank far
   too much over the years, so if anybody can beat this, he can. 
    
   My old high school pal Andy Serwer, the Managing Editor of Fortune, has a
   new book out.  It's called Starting Over.   Somehow, he managed to get
   that old coot Walter Isaacson to write a testimonial for his book.  I
   thought he was dead. 
    
   I'm looking at the concept proposal for the movie script for
   Ghost.   Kinda surreal.  I've penciled in more hair.   I just want some
   hot chick to play my sidekick.  Why not?  It's Hollywood. 
    
    
    
    
    
</description>
    <date>2010-01-22 23:39:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3496818_weekly-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>exec@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3505093</id>
    <title>TrapWire
</title>
    <description>4</description>
    <date>2010-09-22 20:01:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3505093_trapwire-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>exec@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3505768</id>
    <title>Re: [Fwd: Re: Question]
</title>
    <description>8 percent
------Original Message------
From: Fred Burton
To: exec
Sent: Jul 5, 2010 19:38
Subject: [Fwd: Re: Question]

I'll follow up tomorrow with DPS, but can't recall our percentage of the
deal.

Maybe Don recalls?

I know we do get a cut.

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: Re: Question
Date: Mon, 5 Jul 2010 19:34:25 -0500
From: Sawyer, Blake &lt;Blake.Sawyer@txdps.state.tx.us&gt;
To: &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;

Pretty much.  The first purchase order is pending release of the rfo
from legal, which should happen in the next day or two.  Then we have to
wait 21 days before the pre_deployment briefing.  Give me a ring
tomorrow afternoon if you get a chance.

----- Original Message -----
From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
To: Sawyer, Blake
Sent: Mon Jul 05 19:02:27 2010
Subject: Question

Hello Blake,

Is TrapWire still on track?

Thanks,

Fred



-- 
Sent via BlackBerry from Cingular Wireless
</description>
    <date>2010-07-06 02:40:08</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3505768_re-fwd-re-question-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>oconnor@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>exec@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3507960</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
 CODE
</title>
    <description>   It might sound strange, but some of the most radical deep ecology people
   actually believe that there are too many people on the earth and that
   radical steps must be taken to reduce the population and save the earth.
    This strain of deep ecology is a clear reflection of the way the movement
   was heavily influenced by people like Martin Heidegger who were also
   committed to Nazism. Yes, Nazis were radical environmentalists.....
   From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 23:08:31 -0600
   To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Jesus I spent a couple of hours researching these guys - weird is an
   understatement. Apparently they met yesterday a couple of blocks away from
   my house to consolidate their leadership, go through basic indoctrination
   and plan more events. As far as I can tell, the Austin chapter is not
   nearly as radical as the central Lierre Keith DGR whose website is a
   treasure trove of incitment to passive resistance, blowing up energy
   infra, basic counter intel and legal guidance.

   Their ideology seems to be a mix of hardcore environmentalism, anarchism,
   radical feminism and the general notion that we need to go back living
   sustainably like the american indians by blowing up every pipeline and
   cell tower on the planet. Unlike the central DGR, Austin DGR doesn't seem
   to have defined targets and goals (their meeting yesterday was a
   brainstorming session on what radical environmentalism means in Austin).

   just a few nice quotes from their central website:

   The task of an activist is not to navigate systems of oppressive power
   with as much personal integrity as possible; it is to dismantle those
   systems.

   What would we do if Nazis had invaded, and they were vacuuming the oceans,
   scalping native forests, damming every river, changing the climate, and
   putting carcinogens into every mother's breast milk, and into the flesh of
   your children, your lover, your mother, into your own flesh? How much
   worse would the damage have to get? Would you resist? If there existed a
   resistance movement, would you join it?

   On 11/16/11 7:42 PM, Victoria Allen wrote:

     WHOA.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 18:38:01 -0600
     To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Cc: Anya Alfano&lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
     CODE
     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not "radical" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the "Phoenix Commune" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as "stupid, crazy motherfuckers", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, "Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-17 14:01:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3507960_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3509705</id>
    <title>London surveillance &amp; Russian Spies
</title>
    <description>   not for pub
    
   There is on-going aQ surveillance of several high-profile targets in
   London to include MI5, Scotland Yard and SIS Hqs; impacting on London
   links to the Russian spy round up on U.S. soil.   MI5 is strapped to the
   breaking point in looking at hadji running loose planning attacks and have
   reduced surveillance coverage's of Russian IO's (both known and suspected)
   inside the UK. 
    
   "The candle is burning at both ends" was the qoute. 
    
    
</description>
    <date>2010-07-07 04:14:57</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-16 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3509705_london-surveillance-and-russian-spies-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3510058</id>
    <title>Re: follow up
</title>
    <description>will do

On 12/30/09 14:52 , Fred Burton wrote:
&gt; She claims to be catching a two hour flight from Kent to Switzerland,
&gt; however, I suspect she is driving from Austin to Spring, Texas.  Can you
&gt;  take a peek later this afternoon to see if she is hitting the
&gt; Houston/Spring network?  Thanks
&gt;
&gt; Michael Mooney wrote:
&gt;   
&gt;&gt; She is currently logged into IM via "cpe-67-9-137-28.austin.res.rr.com"
&gt;&gt; which is an Austin RoadRunner cable account.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt; Mike, Can you check our friends log on location today?  She is claiming
&gt;&gt;&gt; to be in Kent than off to Switzerland...Thanks
&gt;&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt;       
</description>
    <date>2009-12-30 21:55:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3510058_re-follow-up-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mooney@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3510412</id>
    <title>RE: Weekly Executive Report
</title>
    <description>   Kinda like Iranian nuclear negotiations.  One must remain positive.  If
   you think it will be sealed it will be sealed.  Don't you watch Dr. Phil? 
   Geez..

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Darryl O'Connor [mailto:oconnor@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, November 13, 2009 1:00 PM
   To: 'Fred Burton'; 'exec'
   Subject: RE: Weekly Executive Report
   Hunt deal is not sealed.  Looking good, but not sealed.  I'm from Missouri
   and need a customer committment before i say "sealed".... Fred used to be
   that way, too.
   I think that sabatical working for state govt turned his mind to mush.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, November 13, 2009 12:18 PM
   To: 'exec'
   Subject: Weekly Executive Report
    
   Business 
    
   Big shout out to Patrick for sealing the deal on Hunt Oil.  The security
   man is retired DPS and bought a PI/GV deal.  Great work.  Never thought
   the cheap SOB would buy anything, but he did.  Patrick, Korena and I also
   chatted w/Nick Smith from Merck about business.  Nick and I go back to the
   CIA.  Patrick is optimistic.   I think they will buy something.   
    
   We need to light a fire under Abraxas/TrapWire.  I do think the Great
   State of Texas would buy more TrapWire systems if someone kissed a few
   very fat arses inside the State Capital Bldg.   Key Senators like Corona
   are Fred Burton fans and control the purse strings on gobs of Homeland
   Security monies.  Thank God for Rick Perry.  If the dumb ass Longhorns and
   Hutchinson fans vote him out of office we are FUBR (Don, pls take note.)  
   The Aggies love guns and lawmen.  The Horns love daisies and demos. 
    
   Korena and I also made our yearly pilgrimage to Dell to speak to John
   Schaeffer's global team.  I wanted to introduce Korena to the group in
   case I get whacked by El Chapo or the Arab menace finally hunts me down. 
   Dell is in a tizzy over the purchase of Perot Systems and have come to the
   conclusion Old Man Perot is one fry short of a Happy Meal.   Dell expects
   Perot's control over the Red Chinese health care records/systems will
   somehow make Dell money.  I think Obama stimulus money is paying for
   Chinese health care records...will alert Anderson Cooper. 
    
    
    Security
    
   To brighten your day, I'm mulling over training scenarios for shooter in
   the office space and proper evacuation.  Tactically, our existing office
   space is vulnerable to a field of fire/choke point by the elevators.  One
   gunman w/a shoulder weapon could cover both exits by the elevator.  In
   listening to a review this week on the Orlando and Ft. Hood attacks, lives
   were saved by a forceful response (attacking the shooter); and in
   Orlando's case by locking doors and hunkering down.  The latter may be our
   best course of action in the event of an attack inside our current
   space.    Regardless, whether we like it or not, we need a drill, so stay
   tuned.   
    
   Tactical
    
   As reported last week, Stick and I have designed a major case study model
   for our current staff focusing on key assassinations, bombings,
   hijackings, attacks, espionage accompanied by selected reading lists.   
   George's desire to train the next generation of Stratfor men and women is
   long overdue.  Assassinations are the first topic.  What fun!  Nothing
   better than a real whodunit.   Maybe we will plan an assassination?  I can
   remember standing in the Punjab desert staring at the Zia crash and saying
   to myself, "Holy shit.  What do I do now?"  In Tactical, one learns by
   doing and studying the HOW.  We have rolled out the training program and
   will begin classroom next week.  Appears to me that folks are excited
   about the shift.  Our great briefers (Korena and Anya) will attend as time
   permits and so will Aaron and Jen Richmond.     I think Rodger wants to
   dabble.  More the merrier, although I would not want to be a member of any
   club that would have me as a member.  Pls feel free to participate in the
   training as your schedule permits.   Should we have a vote on what Exec
   needs to be kidnapped and held hostage as part of a training scenario? 
    
    
   Media 
    
   Fielded numerous press inquiries this week which ranged from radio to
   print to TV on topics that ranged from Ft. Hood to Border violence (KVUE,
   KXAN, BELO, WTOP, Federal News, Reuters)  
    
   Kyle is doing good work keeping the interviews rolling in and helping me
   stay on track.   Keep hoping he will get me on The Playboy Channel. 
    
   Misc
    
   Adm. John Poindexter sent a response into us on the T weekly.  Stick did a
   wonderful job responding to the old Cold Warrior.  The man is like
   Angleton.   Think about our audience?  Kissinger, Poindexter, Eagleburger,
   Gen. Dozier (kidnapped by the Red Brigades). These dudes are smart enough
   to read anybody and choose to read us.   Scary and also humbling.  
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
</description>
    <date>2009-11-13 20:03:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3510412_re-weekly-executive-report-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>oconnor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>exec@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3517427</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-11 13:59:34</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3517427_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3521086</id>
    <title>Re: Weekly
</title>
    <description>   Since I'm the real tight wad around here I'll want to see some serious
   numbers before I think a DC office will work. I didn't shit my pants but I
   did get sick to my stomach when I read that. And I am not joking.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Don Kuykendall"
   Date: Sat, 22 Aug 2009 15:19:58 -0500 (CDT)
   To: 'Exec'&lt;exec@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Weekly

   INSTITUTIONAL SALES:
    
   We received the signed OSIS contract Thursday for $481,000 - Paid in full
   by September 30th.  This is a four year deal with a 4.5% increase each
   year.  Patrick got on the score board with a $10,000 IS to CP Chem
   (Chevron - Conoco Phillips JV) as well as a GV for $37,500.  August has
   been a good renewal month for IS - see dash.  Patrick and I are going to
   DC Tuesday to interview qualified candidates to sell into the Gov &amp; DoD. 
   Our new corporate presentation will come in handy.  Don't know if we'll
   hire one, two or three?  All are very qualified.  Richard comes on this
   week as an employee and Wednesday he said to me  "I feel responsible for
   bringing in $10,000,000 of new revenues to STRATFOR".  God that sounded
   good.  Let the work begin.
    
   CORPORATE SALES:
    
   I mentioned above the CP Chem deal.  Patrick and I have meetings in DC
   with Cubic Corporation, Siemens, and Washing Analysis (owned by Glass
   Lewis) all of which has assets in the "stans".  We are trying to leverage
   our Oscar contract.  First meetings, nothing more.  All companies have
   large employee base to sell corporate website license. 
    
   Looks like we signed a deal with Abraxas (TrapWire) just in time. 
   Involved contract but the bottom line is that we are marketing our IS
   through providing their customers via sit reps and if we land anything we
   give them a 8% finders fee.  In return we introduce them to companies, we
   get an 8% finders fee.  Well, guess what, this is one of Fred's "pet"
   companies and Fred has said that, once he is #2 dude in the Texas DPS
   (September oneth) that he is going use the appropriated $1,500,000 to
   install TrapWires product on the Texas border.  George, 8% X $1,500,000 =
   $120,000 for the good guys.  Now, this all could be a wet dream, but
   stranger things have happened.  Also, Fred has said that the second area
   he wants to use TrapWire is on the Houston Channel, which would be much
   larger.  Maybe we can get some of the payback from Fred as insurance from
   lawsuits that have got to hit us from his social list comments!
    
   OTHER:
    
   I am going to send a non-binding letter of intent to 1300 Guadalupe
   building this week.  We need to put our relocation in first gear.  We'll
   see their counter.  I am asking for the world.  If they accept it then
   they are so dumb I wouldn't move in!  Gotta start some where, might as
   well be in our back yard.
    
   I had a terrific conversation with Reva Friday with Peter's knowledge.  It
   was a Reva and Marko initiative.  I'll cut to the chase.  Reva and Marko
   want to help our "new" sales guys (including Debora) become better
   equipped and educated on how the life blood (analyst) of our company works
   so that they can be better prepared to pitch a sale.  Much more to it, but
   son of a bitch they are thinking right on.  This comes at a very perfect
   time as we hire more sales people.....which brings us to......
    
   a need for a DC office.  Jeff just shat his pants.....let's think.  Reva,
   Nate, Karen - in DC, ALL have expressed an interest in having somewhere to
   camp.  If we hire one, two or three SALES PEOPLE in DC, what a better
   opportunity to make certain they are programmed the STRATFOR way than to
   have they exposed daily to our operation.  Example, Nate Taylor is a major
   stud, Carey Grant opportunities BUT does he really know us?  No.  That is
   a sales disadvantage.  Patrick talks to him daily....Patrick has been here
   4 months...We need Nate in Austin to maximize his contribution to our
   company.  Nothing fancy, but a home base.  Jeff and I will run the
   numbers..........we can take some of Richard's new TEN MILL for a security
   deposit!  You guys never thought you would hear this from me, did you? 
   Eh?  The tight wad, loosens.... a bit.
    
   -Don
    
   Don R. Kuykendall
   President
   STRATFOR
   512.744.4314 phone
   512.744.4334 fax
   kuykendall@stratfor.com
    
   _______________________
    
   http://www.stratfor.com
   STRATFOR
   700 Lavaca
   Suite 900
   Austin, Texas 78701
    
</description>
    <date>2009-08-23 00:24:21</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3521086_re-weekly-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>jeff.stevens@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>exec@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>grant@evolutionstrategies.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>rparker@parker-media.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3521351</id>
    <title>weekly.
</title>
    <description>   INSTITUTIONAL SALES:
    
   Darryl gave you the numbers.  August is the month of Debora. 
   Unfortunately, we STILL are not going to reach new sales for institutional
   for August, even with Patrick's $10K deal.  This is disturbing.  The
   pipeline is weak.  I am looking forward to meeting with Richard and Grant
   to find an immediate differentiator.  I don't care what it is but we're
   running out of leads that will buy a discounted license for $300 / head. 
   Patrick and I made several calls in DC ( Cubic Corporation - Siemens -
   Washington Analysis) and I learned first hand the difficulties of dancing
   around selling mass seats for big dollars in competition with a $99
   product - same product.
    
   The primary purpose of our trip was to interview candidates for DC sales. 
   We are working with a head hunter.  He did good.  After narrowing victims
   down to three to interview face to face we are probably going to offer two
   of them sales positions.  The most promising candidate (from Gartner) did
   not meet QSM.  Neither did Jeremy Wilcox (former successful STRATFOR sales
   guy) but Jeremy was 100% telesales - dialing for dollars - lots of small
   deals.  We are looking for larger deals and the two possibles have
   experience in the Gov/DoD space.  One guy, one girl, very politically
   correct.  The guy sold for Jane's.  You will meet them in September before
   we offer them a position.  And no, she doesn't.
    
    
   We also met with Abraxas (TrapWire) who we have a partnership with to
   provide them with our sitreps on their monitors to their clients (ask
   Patrick for details). - corporate awareness.  As part of the deal, we have
   introduce them to Texas DPS (through Fred) and they (TrapWire) are bidding
   on a $1,500,000 security system for the Texas Capitol / Governor's
   Mansion.  If landed, we get an 8% "referral fee" - that's $120,000.  Not
   bad, thanks Fred.  The real value of this partnership is to generate
   interest in our corporate product.
    
   Nate Taylor will be with us in Austin the last three weeks in September. 
   This guy is rock solid but we have not done a good job at focusing him. 
   We will in September.  I will reach out to you for assistance.
    
   OTHER:
    
   We have sent a letter of intent to the owners of 1300 Guadalupe and we are
   expecting a counter this week????  Also, at the request (begging) of
   Meredith, we have dusted off the South Mopac option.  The current tenant
   is actively looking for other space - this is a good sign.  We're keeping
   all options open including 700 Lavaca.
    
   See you tomorrow.
    
   -Don
    
    
   Don R. Kuykendall
   President
   STRATFOR
   512.744.4314 phone
   512.744.4334 fax
   kuykendall@stratfor.com
    
   _______________________
    
   http://www.stratfor.com
   STRATFOR
   700 Lavaca
   Suite 900
   Austin, Texas 78701
    
</description>
    <date>2009-08-30 20:28:25</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3521351_weekly-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>exec@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3527637</id>
    <title>Global Vantage Clients 
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2006-02-07 23:51:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3527637_global-vantage-clients-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>glass@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>service@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/150/150549_GV Client List rev. 1-31-06.xls</path><size>50176</size><md5></md5><sha1>eb90d2fedb6fa966e999badbf121929148a11463</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3528903</id>
    <title>L's mail for 1st 09 trip
</title>
    <description>7</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3528903_l-s-mail-for-1st-09-trip-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mooney@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/2/2832_colibasanu.vcf</path><size>237</size><md5></md5><sha1>f1a65c343f3d928d204ee817119ae7650a82f9fd</sha1></file>
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      <file><path>attach/150/150621_clip_image011.jpg</path><size>22599</size><md5></md5><sha1>7fbd2970aff70ebc074ce7476133711dfc1a24e9</sha1></file>
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      <file><path>attach/150/150632_Confirmation Miss  Goodrich.doc</path><size>59904</size><md5></md5><sha1>9d199cc51c7b378bcb4545b68d43ce6fa96240a1</sha1></file>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3533074</id>
    <title>L's emails for Russia 08 trip
</title>
    <description>7</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3533074_l-s-emails-for-russia-08-trip-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mooney@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/151/151044_image006.jpg</path><size>11388</size><md5></md5><sha1>0415d7ff406e868a21ae3815b34b6175b0a4835c</sha1></file>
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      <file><path>attach/151/151047_Kempinski Hotel Booking form.doc</path><size>567808</size><md5></md5><sha1>b2de109308dd5905c6bcfeab93eb754a035bd097</sha1></file>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3534070</id>
    <title>RE: Weekly Executive Report
</title>
    <description>   Waiting on the signature.

    

   From: Darryl O'Connor [mailto:oconnor@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, November 13, 2009 1:00 PM
   To: 'Fred Burton'; 'exec'
   Subject: RE: Weekly Executive Report

    

   Hunt deal is not sealed.  Looking good, but not sealed.  I'm from Missouri
   and need a customer committment before i say "sealed".... Fred used to be
   that way, too.

   I think that sabatical working for state govt turned his mind to mush.

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, November 13, 2009 12:18 PM
   To: 'exec'
   Subject: Weekly Executive Report

    

   Business 

    

   Big shout out to Patrick for sealing the deal on Hunt Oil.  The security
   man is retired DPS and bought a PI/GV deal.  Great work.  Never thought
   the cheap SOB would buy anything, but he did.  Patrick, Korena and I also
   chatted w/Nick Smith from Merck about business.  Nick and I go back to the
   CIA.  Patrick is optimistic.   I think they will buy something.   

    

   We need to light a fire under Abraxas/TrapWire.  I do think the Great
   State of Texas would buy more TrapWire systems if someone kissed a few
   very fat arses inside the State Capital Bldg.   Key Senators like Corona
   are Fred Burton fans and control the purse strings on gobs of Homeland
   Security monies.  Thank God for Rick Perry.  If the dumb ass Longhorns and
   Hutchinson fans vote him out of office we are FUBR (Don, pls take note.)  
   The Aggies love guns and lawmen.  The Horns love daisies and demos. 

    

   Korena and I also made our yearly pilgrimage to Dell to speak to John
   Schaeffer's global team.  I wanted to introduce Korena to the group in
   case I get whacked by El Chapo or the Arab menace finally hunts me down. 
   Dell is in a tizzy over the purchase of Perot Systems and have come to the
   conclusion Old Man Perot is one fry short of a Happy Meal.   Dell expects
   Perot's control over the Red Chinese health care records/systems will
   somehow make Dell money.  I think Obama stimulus money is paying for
   Chinese health care records...will alert Anderson Cooper. 

    

    

    Security

    

   To brighten your day, I'm mulling over training scenarios for shooter in
   the office space and proper evacuation.  Tactically, our existing office
   space is vulnerable to a field of fire/choke point by the elevators.  One
   gunman w/a shoulder weapon could cover both exits by the elevator.  In
   listening to a review this week on the Orlando and Ft. Hood attacks, lives
   were saved by a forceful response (attacking the shooter); and in
   Orlando's case by locking doors and hunkering down.  The latter may be our
   best course of action in the event of an attack inside our current
   space.    Regardless, whether we like it or not, we need a drill, so stay
   tuned.   

    

   Tactical

    

   As reported last week, Stick and I have designed a major case study model
   for our current staff focusing on key assassinations, bombings,
   hijackings, attacks, espionage accompanied by selected reading lists.   
   George's desire to train the next generation of Stratfor men and women is
   long overdue.  Assassinations are the first topic.  What fun!  Nothing
   better than a real whodunit.   Maybe we will plan an assassination?  I can
   remember standing in the Punjab desert staring at the Zia crash and saying
   to myself, "Holy shit.  What do I do now?"  In Tactical, one learns by
   doing and studying the HOW.  We have rolled out the training program and
   will begin classroom next week.  Appears to me that folks are excited
   about the shift.  Our great briefers (Korena and Anya) will attend as time
   permits and so will Aaron and Jen Richmond.     I think Rodger wants to
   dabble.  More the merrier, although I would not want to be a member of any
   club that would have me as a member.  Pls feel free to participate in the
   training as your schedule permits.   Should we have a vote on what Exec
   needs to be kidnapped and held hostage as part of a training scenario? 

    

    

   Media 

    

   Fielded numerous press inquiries this week which ranged from radio to
   print to TV on topics that ranged from Ft. Hood to Border violence (KVUE,
   KXAN, BELO, WTOP, Federal News, Reuters)  

    

   Kyle is doing good work keeping the interviews rolling in and helping me
   stay on track.   Keep hoping he will get me on The Playboy Channel. 

    

   Misc

    

   Adm. John Poindexter sent a response into us on the T weekly.  Stick did a
   wonderful job responding to the old Cold Warrior.  The man is like
   Angleton.   Think about our audience?  Kissinger, Poindexter, Eagleburger,
   Gen. Dozier (kidnapped by the Red Brigades). These dudes are smart enough
   to read anybody and choose to read us.   Scary and also humbling.  

    

    

    

    

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2009-11-13 20:01:19</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3534070_re-weekly-executive-report-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>oconnor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>exec@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>patrick.boykin@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3534097</id>
    <title>Good News
</title>
    <description>Was just advised by DPS that TrapWire -- as well as all the State of
Texas Capital security upgrades -- passed exec session.  TrapWire
installation begins Monday.  As a reminder, I wrote the plans for
eventual TrapWire roll-out Statewide, in addition to the Texas State
Capital.
</description>
    <date>2010-04-13 19:42:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3534097_good-news-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>exec@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>patrick.boykin@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3538211</id>
    <title>Re: Fwd: Weekly Executive Report
</title>
    <description>   40k is a lot of money to spend on that obviously.  It probably prices the
   solution out of our means right now. 

   Michael Mooney wrote:

     Before you come at me with fire in your eyes,  I intended to discuss the
     PGP solution with Stick then Fred before you, not leave you out of the
     loop.   I'll be free to discuss it with you at your leisure. 

     This is a pgp corporation solution, and it's not free.   But when I
     removed cost from my constraints in my ongoing search for a large enough
     hammer to smash the PGP problems -- it's where I ended up.

     I've included the initial quote, we can talk about the features provided
     and guarantees made by PGP corp at your leisure.

     --Mike

     -------- Original Message --------

     Subject: Weekly Executive Report                    
        Date: Sat, 24 Apr 2010 09:35:20 -0400            
        From: scott stewart &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt; 
          To: &lt;exec@stratfor.com&gt;                        

     I spent a good portion of my week putting out little fires caused by
     people issues.  Management would be so much easier if people were not
     involved.  J

      

     I met with Mike yesterday to discuss a solution for our PGP encryption
     woes. He has found a decent solution, but it looks like it will cost us
     some money to put  it in place.

      

      

      

     OSINT

      

     Things are churning along fine.

      

     Kristen is working with Darryl and Jeff to get the WNC/NTIS feed turned
     on. Like the BBC feed, this is going to create some challenges as far as
     sorting through it, but having too much information is better than not
     having enough.

      

     As noted last week, and mentioned mid week in another conversation, we
     are ready to switch Antonia over to work with Meredith on the
     confederation project when the funding is available to hire Zac. He is
     living in Spain, so he would be a contract employee with no benefits.

      

      

      

     Collection

      

     Meredith and I are continuing on with the source review process. We
     worked with Mark for several hours this week and only got about 2/3 of
     the way through his exhaustive (and exhausting source list). He
     continues to amaze me as far as his ability to interact with people in
     Africa. I've been working with him to share more of his knowledge and to
     ensure that he reports all the insight he receives, and I have noticed a
     big difference over the past several weeks.

      

     Aaron continues to make some good contacts in Yemen. He will be home in
     mid-to-late May.

      

     Jen will be going to China  the last two weeks of June.

      

     Rodger will be heading to South East Asia  

      

      

     Tactical

      

     Sean is finishing up the Iranian Intelligence Services piece. I think it
     is looking pretty good. I am unaware of anyone else doing a piece like
     this and think it will get a good response. We are thinking about
     handling Indian intelligence services next any feedback from you on that
     .choice would be appreciated.

      

     Ben is working on the World Cup Security analysis with Bayless and Mark.
     We should have it done within the next couple weeks. They met with
     Grant's team to talk about marketing the report this week. I missed that
     meeting due to a conflicting meeting with George, Peter and Rodger,  so
     I don't have the details of what transpired.

      

     I took Intern Ryan Abbey out to lunch yesterday. He is currently
     finishing up his Master's thesis and is in the process of going through
     his BI/polygraph to work for Northrop/Grumman on a CIA contract as a
     terrorism analyst. We will probably lose him in the fall to that job.
      Monitor Brian Oates graduates with his BA in May and will be going to
     the same place a few months earlier.  We will have Marija take Brian's
     weekend hours when he leaves. Brian will be less of a loss than Ryan.

      

     Posey got the Amazon CIS piece written this week and is just now
     finishing up the Johnson Controls CIS project.

      

     Anya is working on a CIS project for Walmart with Lauren's help.

      

     After George's "What is important" meeting on Wednesday, we had a good
     training meeting on Thursday to talk about the mechanics of how we in
     tactical determine what is important and how we develop the analytical
     framework required to examine tactical topics.  We also talked about
     paradigm shifts and forecasting.

      

      

     Scott Stewart

     STRATFOR

     Office: 814 967 4046

     Cell: 814 573 8297

     scott.stewart@stratfor.com

     www.stratfor.com

   --

   George Friedman

   Founder and CEO

   Stratfor

   700 Lavaca Street

   Suite 900

   Austin, Texas 78701

   Phone  512-744-4319

   Fax  512-744-4334
</description>
    <date>2010-04-24 19:52:17</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3538211_re-fwd-weekly-executive-report-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mooney@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3545647</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged "Anonymous" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise "anonymous"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-10 19:47:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3545647_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3546952</id>
    <title>Re: FBI SAIC on OS &amp; DHS
</title>
    <description>Field Intelligence Group (FIG) which exist inside of each FBI field
office. 

The FIG is staffed by analysts and are responsible for analysis.  The
FBI agent is saying that the analysts get their open source from the CIA
office of open source intelligence, but have very little time to look at
the open source, due to the  amount of classified intelligence.   That
is the problem I found w/the 250 analysts that worked for me at the 4 -
Texas fusion centers.  CNN is watched for breaking news, but the amount
of classified information (fire hose) from FBI, CIA, DHS, DEA, NSA
pouring into the fusion centers prohibited the time anyone had to look
at the open source.  

DHS comprised a daily open source report in DC but the report was old by
the time you got it.  If the CIA did an open source round up, it was
never pushed out to the Fusion Centers.  

Appears to me that if the FBI FIG's need open source materials, they
contact the CIA office of open source intelligence.   I would assume,
but don't know, our OS contract feeds into this group. 


Don Kuykendall wrote:
&gt; What's a FIG?  Geez.
&gt;
&gt; Sent from my iPhone
&gt;
&gt; On Oct 10, 2010, at 10:04 AM, Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:
&gt;
&gt;&gt; Does your FIG look at open source materials? If so, what do they like?
&gt;&gt; Just curious.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; ---
&gt;&gt; ---
&gt;&gt; --------------------------------------------------------------------
&gt;&gt;&gt; I suspect they don't look at as much open source as they might say
&gt;&gt;&gt; they do - no time to pour thru the classified.  You know the Agency
&gt;&gt;&gt; has an entire open source center, so I think our local FO analysts
&gt;&gt;&gt; would depend on them to pull out good info.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; DHS is an absolute nightmare from my perspective.  Totally irrelevant
&gt;&gt;&gt; to the legacy agencies who continue their work unabated in the field.
&gt;&gt;&gt; Meanwhile back at DHS HQ, its a constant turnover of politically
&gt;&gt;&gt; connected wanna be insiders. Imagine the Agency or FBI, that turned
&gt;&gt;&gt; over personnel at the highest levels of the organization every 18 mos
&gt;&gt;&gt; to 2 years - that in and of itself is a formula for disaster, the
&gt;&gt;&gt; legacy agencies issue notwithstanding.  They are also looking to the
&gt;&gt;&gt; state fusion centers they pour millions of $ into, to be their de
&gt;&gt;&gt; facto field offices.  The fusion centers are often tasked by DHS
&gt;&gt;&gt; central planning with briefing the state and locals on "non-specific
&gt;&gt;&gt; threats" (like the one we are looking at now), one step ahead of the
&gt;&gt;&gt; FBI if possible.  It is freaking amature hour.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; __,_._,___
</description>
    <date>2010-10-10 16:43:14</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-21 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3546952_re-fbi-saic-on-os-and-dhs-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>exec@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3546963</id>
    <title>Re: Encryption Guidance
</title>
    <description>OMG

This is more difficult than getting a cable cleared through Foggy Bottom.

"Humm...from security I see."  FSO Milo Henchcock perches with his red
pen in his bony fingers looking for dangling participles. 

scott stewart wrote:
&gt; We should also note somewhere that SPARK is encrypted and is an acceptable
&gt; way to discuss sensitive subjects and transfer files. 
&gt;
&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt; From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
&gt; Sent: Tuesday, October 12, 2010 1:24 PM
&gt; To: Korena Zucha
&gt; Cc: 'Michael D. Mooney'; 'Nate Hughes'; 'Scott Stewart'; 'Korena Zucha';
&gt; 'Anya Alfano'
&gt; Subject: Re: Encryption Guidance
&gt;
&gt; ? Encryption is a tool that we are not fully integrating but need to
&gt; based on the nature of our business, which draws the interests of
&gt; many-some of which are hostile to our mission. PGP should be emphasized
&gt; and enforced for all executives and other designated employees. Should
&gt; there be any doubt about whether something you are writing is sensitive
&gt; and should be encrypted, err on the side of caution and encrypt it
&gt; anyway. Common sense should prevail. Types of information that need to
&gt; be encrypted include:
&gt; o Sensitive company financial data should be encrypted on a case by case
&gt; basis, which will be left to the discretion of the sender.
&gt; o Certain client names and related contract details as deemed necessary
&gt; by CEO.
&gt; o Sensitive personnel information, to include SSNs, salaries and
&gt; health-related information
&gt; o Sensitive INSIGHT or the identification of sources. For any questions
&gt; about what sources may fit into this category, please contact Scott
&gt; Stewart.
&gt; o CEO travel itinerary, including flight and hotel information and dates
&gt; of travel
&gt; o Sensitive executive-level discussions
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; ** Can I get only this in a word document? Thanks
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; Korena Zucha wrote:
&gt;   
&gt;&gt; Incorporated with Fred's comments from yesterday as well. Let me know
&gt;&gt; if you need anything else.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; On 10/12/2010 8:11 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt; note changes
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; ------------------------------------------------------------------------
&gt;&gt;&gt; *From:* Korena Zucha [mailto:zucha@stratfor.com]
&gt;&gt;&gt; *Sent:* Tuesday, October 12, 2010 8:08 AM
&gt;&gt;&gt; *To:* Fred Burton
&gt;&gt;&gt; *Cc:* 'Michael D. Mooney'; 'Nate Hughes'; 'Scott Stewart'; 'Korena
&gt;&gt;&gt; Zucha'; 'Anya Alfano'
&gt;&gt;&gt; *Subject:* Re: Encryption Guidance
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Updated. Any other changes?
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Encryption is a tool that we are not fully integrating but need to
&gt;&gt;&gt; based on the nature of our business. PGP should be emphasized and
&gt;&gt;&gt; used by all employees. (delete - enforced for all executives and
&gt;&gt;&gt; other designated employees. As guidance, content that fits into the
&gt;&gt;&gt; following categories should be encrypted although this list is not
&gt;&gt;&gt; all-inclusive. Should there be any doubt about whether something you
&gt;&gt;&gt; are writing should be encrypted or if you think something is
&gt;&gt;&gt; sensitive, err on the side of caution and encrypt it anyway. Common
&gt;&gt;&gt; sense should prevail.
&gt;&gt;&gt; o Sensitive company financial data should be encrypted on a case by
&gt;&gt;&gt; case basis left to the discretion of the sender
&gt;&gt;&gt; o Certain client names and related contract details as deemed
&gt;&gt;&gt; necessary by the CEO . (delete the rest - by Meredith Friedman and
&gt;&gt;&gt; Beth Bronder. Note that the use of code names, which will also be
&gt;&gt;&gt; determined by Meredith and Beth along with the Briefers, is not a
&gt;&gt;&gt; replacement for using PGP.
&gt;&gt;&gt; o Sensitive personnel information, to include SSNs, salaries and
&gt;&gt;&gt; health-related information
&gt;&gt;&gt; o Sensitive sourcing insight. For any questions about what sources
&gt;&gt;&gt; may fit into this category, contact Stick.
&gt;&gt;&gt; o CEO travel itinerary, including flight and hotel information and
&gt;&gt;&gt; dates of travel
&gt;&gt;&gt; o Sensitive executive-level discussions
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; On 10/12/2010 7:21 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; sensitive company financial data on a case by case basis left to the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; discretion of the sender
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
&gt;&gt;&gt; No virus found in this incoming message.
&gt;&gt;&gt; Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
&gt;&gt;&gt; Version: 9.0.862 / Virus Database: 271.1.1/3190 - Release Date:
&gt;&gt;&gt; 10/11/10 01:34:00
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;
&gt;   
</description>
    <date>2010-10-12 19:35:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3546963_re-encryption-guidance-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mooney@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anya.alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3552067</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
	CODE
</title>
    <description>   Agree
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: scott stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:59:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;; Korena Zucha&lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Anya Alfano&lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   I'll bet cash they are connected to the Austin guys busted for the DNC
   plot plus some of the Austin Earth First jabronis. 
   From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 11:51:44 -0600
   To: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Anya Alfano &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;, Alpha List
   &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Have we seen Deep Green Resistance carry-out acts of violence in the
   past? 

   On 11/16/2011 6:38 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not "radical" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the "Phoenix Commune" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as "stupid, crazy motherfuckers", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, "Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-18 21:17:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3552067_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3561263</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-11 13:59:34</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3561263_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3563232</id>
    <title>RE: The Stratfor Family Grows yet again
</title>
    <description>   Don, I believe George has slandered you and I.  I'm meeting with my
   attorney now.  

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Don Kuykendall [mailto:kuykendall@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, August 21, 2009 2:46 PM
   To: 'Benjamin Sledge'; 'Marko Papic'
   Cc: 'George Friedman'; allstratfor@stratfor.com
   Subject: RE: The Stratfor Family Grows yet again
   Let the charm start right here with Sledge.
    
   Don R. Kuykendall
   President
   STRATFOR
   512.744.4314 phone
   512.744.4334 fax
   kuykendall@stratfor.com
    
   _______________________
    
   http://www.stratfor.com
   STRATFOR
   700 Lavaca
   Suite 900
   Austin, Texas 78701
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Benjamin Sledge [mailto:ben.sledge@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, August 21, 2009 12:54 PM
   To: Marko Papic
   Cc: George Friedman; allstratfor@stratfor.com
   Subject: Re: The Stratfor Family Grows yet again
   WELCOME Gentlemen!  Always a pleasure to have you on board!!!!!!
   "Be aware that both our inside the Beltway liberals who believe that CNN
   is an objective network, unlike Fox, which is the devil. "
   This is like Christmas come early!!!  Raging Libs with ideals!  MMMmmmmm,
   I smell fresh blood  . . . .
   -- 
   Ben Sledge
   STRATFOR
   Sr. Designer
   C: 918-691-0655
   F: 512-744-4334
   ben.sledge@stratfor.com
   http://www.stratfor.com
   On Aug 21, 2009, at 12:25 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

     Congratulations Grant and Richard! Welcome to the Stratfor Family.
     Looking forward to chatting with you when I return from Europe. 

     Marko

     ----- Original Message -----
     From: "George Friedman" &lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: allstratfor@stratfor.com
     Sent: Friday, August 21, 2009 12:19:23 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
     Subject: The Stratfor Family Grows yet again

     I'd like to announce two new executive appointments at Stratfor.
      
     Grant Perry is joining us as Senior Vice President for Consumer
     Marketing and Media.  Grant is a former correspondent and anchor at
     CNN.  He served as Vice President for New Media Initiatives at Oliveitti
     Telemedia in Milan, and as President of Global Media Innovations where
     among other things he served as consultant to Wired Magazine in
     developing TV programming about the internet and ran Exorbis, a web
     studio producing programming on wine and travel.  He also ran a
     political communications firm, where he developed direct marketing
     strategies.  Grant teaches "Journalism in the Digital Age" at Johns
     Hopkins University and was a mentor in the Knight International
     Journalism Fellowship Program.  Grant will be responsible for developing
     strategies for packaging and selling Stratfor products to the consumer
     market, as well as devising strategies for the use of things like
     Facebook and Twitter for managing Stratfor's image.
      
     Richard Parker is joining us as Senior Vice President of Corporate
     Marketing and Development.  This is Richard's second tour at Stratfor,
     where he was COO from 2000-2001.   He was a reporter with the Knight
     Ridder chain, covering Washington, Latin America and the Balkans.  He
     won the Shaeffer Award for in-depth Reporting.  He has served as an
     advisor to the Congressional Quarterly and the Times Publishing Company,
     their parent.  He has also consulted with News Corp., CanWest Global
     Communications, McGraw Hill and other leader publications.  He was
     Associate publisher of the New Republic where he was instrumental in
     developing their on-line strategy.  Richard will be responsible for
     developing products and strategies for sale in the the corporate and
     government markets, and for other business development initiatives.
      
     Both Grant and Richard are drawn from the publishing and journalism
     world.  They share in common knowledge of and experience in the business
     and reporting side of that, as well as involvement in the on-line world
     and new media.  They both understand the news and in the end, while we
     might produce the news using intelligence rather than journalistic
     methods, we do produce news that readers read.  That means that we need
     people who understand both the news production process, the business of
     news and the presentation of news.  From the website, to the way we
     present our intelligence, to how Stratfor is perceived in the markets we
     serve--these are the domains that Grant and Richard will help define and
     redefine.  A major job that I am confident they can do.
      
     These two hires will, over time, change many of the ways we do business,
     and make us more successful.  They can be found in the play pen on the
     sixth floor.  By all means go down and visit them when both begin their
     formal servitude on Monday. 
      
     Be aware that both our inside the Beltway liberals who believe that CNN
     is an objective network, unlike Fox, which is the devil. This will help
     create a needed balancing in the public image of Stratfor as
     ideologically indifferent, as well as superb opportunities for mirth and
     contempt by Fred, Don and myself. .  Grant has told me that even if
     Obama's foreign policy is the same as Bush's, he has changed the
     atmosphere, and that's important.  Richard has given me a book that
     warns against Presidential lying.  Let the games begin.
      
     This is a big change for us.  I am asking all of you to help make them
     successful.  More details on precisely what they will be doing will
     become available as they define their own strategies and relationships
     in the company.
      
     George Friedman
     Founder &amp; Chief Executive Officer
     STRATFOR
     512.744.4319 phone
     512.744.4335 fax
     gfriedman@stratfor.com
     _______________________
      
     http://www.stratfor.com
     STRATFOR
     700 Lavaca St
     Suite 900
     Austin, Texas 78701
      
</description>
    <date>2009-08-21 21:52:47</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-23 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3563232_re-the-stratfor-family-grows-yet-again-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>allstratfor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ben.sledge@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3572491</id>
    <title>Weekly 
</title>
    <description>Business

1) Salesforce Hqs in San Fran is interested in TrapWire after I briefed
them on their wonderful capabilities; referred to Patrick for follow up.

2) DHS Institute is very interested in a terrorist surveillance
methodology paper and is looking to fund the project.  They are big fans
of our tactical work. Patrick has a good strategy on how to make this
happen.

3) I think the timing is right to revisit our relationship w/GOOGLE and
sense growing frustration (and chaos) on their part in light of the
Chinese penetrations and intellectual property theft. I've been playing
constant phone tag w/their security director, who I believe is traveling.


Tactical

New U.S. terror alerts caused a stir this week, along with terror
violence in Pakistan. We collected good information on all of these
attacks and continue to probe into the Dubai killing of the senior Hamas
official.


Security

1) We received a vile and threatening message posted on YouTube directed
towards Rodger and his family in response to a video Rodger did.
Efforts to locate the suspect are underway.

2) (CONFIDENTIAL)  One of our female staff has been physically abused by
a former boyfriend and the suspect won't leave her alone.  It's a
delicate issue and we need to protect her privacy.  This is an example
of how things like this could spill over into the workplace, if the
suspect decides to hunt her down here.

Note - Over the years, I've had quite a few folks come to me in
confidence w/various personal problems or issues that require police
help and security advice.  I've always tried to do my best to protect
their desire for privacy to eliminate the internal gossip and rumors.


Media


KVUE Austin tv on Texas Capital security and new al Qaeda threats;

Fox News LA tv on border violence and Mexican cartels that will air
Monday, then distributed nationally.

Next week, Stick and I have The Discovery Channel filming on terrorist
plots.


Other

A positive development on Ghost the movie is underway with a hunt for a
top notch screen writer.

I'm visiting w/Robert Rodriguez (local Austin film maker) to discuss his
thoughts (more advice) on next steps.  I've visited w/Robert in the past
 and I trust his counsel.
</description>
    <date>2010-02-05 21:37:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3572491_weekly-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>exec@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3573985</id>
    <title>Fw: extraordinary achievement
</title>
    <description>   Below is an email from the prime minister of turkey's head of
   international communication. He runs turkey's international image and is
   extremely powerful in the government. As you can see below I reached out
   to him as this crisis broke. After 48 hours he responded. That's a long
   delay so this was discussed. As you can see he is offering to broker a
   peace.

   The gulen is a faction the government fears. It is extremely complex and I
   won't explain it here but ibrahim's ability to intervene indicates our
   status.

   This has been a long 48 hours for reva and kamran and for me. This is far
   from the only time we've been caught in a shitstorm but its an opportunity
   to introduce the execs to one of the real complexities facing this
   company.

   Out international influence is substantial and part of the reason for our
   success. While I won't ever back away from a fight I ideally have to find
   a way to calm things down. As you can imagine this fellow is a great
   source so I have to be careful. There are times when stratfor is
   conducting its own foreign policy. Its really important that all
   executives have a sense of this dimension. It makes us money, don. It can
   make lots of money. Few companies have this kind of access around the
   world.

   if anyone has questions I'd be happy to answer. You need to understand how
   this stuff is part of our business model.

   Obviously this is stratfor classified. The issue is known in the company.
   This communication is known to reva, kamran and the execs. The
   relationship I have with this guy has to be secret and certainly this
   communication.

   Have a happy labor day. Chances of turkish terrorist killing us all just
   diminished. A good thing.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Ibrahim Kalin &lt;ibrahimkalin@gmail.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 3 Sep 2010 20:08:42 -0500 (CDT)
   To: George Friedman&lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: extraordinary achievement
   dear george.
   i understand your dilemma! it is more a reflection of the realities of
   turkish society and politics than an error or failure in your analysis.
   such a complicated society as turkey does not lend itself to neat
   categories.
   but there are, as you know very well, different levels of analysis and
   they can be applied to the religious and political trends in turkey. this
   holds true for the gulen movement as well as the secularists (and ak party
   and others). part of the reason why there is always a very strong reaction
   to an analysis that seems to leave out one piece of the puzzle is that
   there is a deep sense of existential threat in almost all social and
   political movements/groups in turkey. the modern turkish republic was
   founded upon a zero-sum game for various historical reasons and security
   in the widest sense of the term has been the top priority of the
   republican elites for many decades. paradoxically and rather sadly, it has
   created similar emotions and reactions among the non-state elites, leading
   to a mirror image. ak party, probably the most successful political
   movement in recent turkish history in terms of its ability to project a
   new social imagination across the turkish society (i just came back from a
   major rally in diyarbakir where pm erdogan embraced the entire country
   with its turks, kurds, arabs, etc, without stepping on anyone's toe- a
   nearly impossible job!).
   regarding the gulen movement, there are many points that need to be
   considered. but i know this is not what you ask in your message.
   the best thing to do is to reach fethullah gulen himself. but that might
   too cumbersome. my suggestion is to contact ekrem dumanli, editor-in-chief
   of zaman newspaper. i will be happy to introduce you to him.
   regards,
   ibrahim

   2010/9/1 George Friedman &lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;

     Dear Ibrahim:

     Stratfor appears to have achieved the impossible.* We are disliked by
     the secularists for spreading the idea of neo-Ottomanism and now by the
     Gulen movement as agents of foreign powers (I guess that means the U.S.
     and Israel).* It is hard to offend both groups but we have done it.* My
     view of our analysis of the Gulen movement is that it described it as
     what it was--a powerful strand of the Turkish polity.* We have been
     accused of saying that they were violent (we didn't) and of being
     foreign agents (we aren't).*

     The responses are in a way understandable, but at the same time it is a
     bit troubling.* I doubt that there is any group as favorably inclined to
     Turkey as Stratfor is at this moment and we take a lot of grief from the
     Armenians and Jews for this. I am particularly pressured but I take
     perverse pride in resisting.*

     So I write asking some advice.* I have nothing against the Gulen
     movement.* I find it interesting and important and worth the time and
     effort we spent studying them.* We understood what they wanted but what
     we gave them was, in an American context, not at all negative.* They are
     a powerful group to be taken seriously.* I am inclined to call someone
     if not to smooth things over but to make it clear that I have no
     animosity toward them--simply to set that part of the record straight,
     and to listen to particularly criticisms.* Detailed objections have been
     scarce.*

     Do you have any suggestion on whether and how to proceed.* I know this
     might be delicate for you so if you want to decline involvement I
     entirely understand.

     George

     --

     George Friedman

     Founder and CEO

     Stratfor

     700 Lavaca Street

     Suite 900

     Austin, Texas 78701

     Phone* 512-744-4319

     Fax* 512-744-4334
</description>
    <date>2010-09-04 03:47:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-07 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3573985_fw-extraordinary-achievement-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>exec@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3578113</id>
    <title>Fwd: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
</title>
    <description>   Ryan Sims
   Global Intelligence
   STRATFOR
   T: 512-744-4087
   F: 512-744-0570
   ryan.sims@stratfor.com
   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
     Date: June 16, 2011 1:04:08 PM CDT
     To: STRATFOR &lt;service@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: RE: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
     Kudos*a great explanation for those who don't understand or appreciate
     the efforts that go into a real intel op*as opposed to the Hollywood BS
     everyone seems to expect.
      
     I remind people all the time that we got the courier's name back in '03
     -- and thank goodness didn't take the typical "cuff 'em and drag him in"
     approach many had advocated. We stayed patient and threw real analytical
     support into this one. Took some time -- but the patient oriental
     approach usually pays bigger dividends.  M
      
     From: STRATFOR [mailto:mail@response.stratfor.com] 
     Sent: Thursday, June 16, 2011 11:45 AM
     To: Michael Maness
     Subject: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
      

View on Mobile Phone | Read the online version.                                  

      

     STRATFOR Weekly Intelligence Update                                      
     Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier: Special Edition of Above the        
     Tearline                                                                 
     The weekly Above the Tearline video series is part of our members-only   
     content. We hope you enjoy this exclusive chance to access it free.      
                                                                              
     [IMG]                                                                    
     Watch this exclusive edition of Above the Tearline                       
                                                                              
             Above the Tearline: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier          
                                                                              
                                                                              
                                                                              
     Vice President of Intelligence Fred Burton examines the sophisticated    
     surveillance operation that led to the raid on Osama bin Laden*s safe    
     house in Pakistan. Click here to view.                                   
     Save on annual memberships                                               
     Connect with usTwitterFacebookYoutubeSTRATFOR Mobile                     
     New to STRATFOR? Get these free intel reports emailed to you. If you did 
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     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-06-16 20:08:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3578113_fwd-surveillance-of-bin-laden-s-courier-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>service@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>responses@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3600993</id>
    <title>RE: Weekly
</title>
    <description>   I failed to add that Mike Mooney and Adam were very helpful this week on a
   range of issues mostly self-inflicted w/pgp and such.   

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, January 29, 2010 9:45 PM
   To: 'Exec'
   Subject: Weekly
    
   Business
    
    1)  Positive developments continue with TrapWire in light of the Texas
   State Capital shooting.   The grant money was released this week ($1.2
   million) per the Director of the DPS/Texas Rangers.  We should see the
   system roll out fairly soon.  I've pushed the matter behind-the-scenes
   w/the Director and the DPS Commissioners.  One of my former guys has been
   transferred back to the Capital from Intelligence to review all aspects of
   security.  His first priority is TrapWire.  I chatted with him off and on
   this week.  As a reminder, there is a Phase Two which calls for a roll out
   of TrapWire for the DPS Campus, key locations statewide, like Weslaco.  
    
   2) Budget permitting, I sent a request to the brain trust to consider
   letting Korena attend the Rocky Mountain Security/Energy Conference in
   Colorado in May.  The "who's who" of the oil, chemical and gas sector will
   attend.   We approved Korena going last year, but the conference was
   canceled due to snow.  A fair number of S4 subscribers will be there, but
   a fertile pool of others will also attend.  Threat information will also
   be exchanged with various presentations.  Good place to work the margins
   from an analysis perspective.  I gave a keynote to this group in Houston
   awhile back.   A large number of state and federal agencies also show. 
    
   3) Still think we need to pursue the on-line college market after hearing
   this week that more and more federal agents are taking classes at AMU,
   Henley-Putnam, Norwich.   Homeland Security, Terrorism, National Security
   studies are all approved for agents and analysts to attend.  
    
   4) Helped Bridgestone Tire today with an arson in Harlingen, Texas.  Gang
   jabronis are torching their tire factory.  They will be back for
   business.   The VP for Security is a fan.  
    
   5) Ziff Brothers Investment has hired a new director of security at
   $600,000.  The dude -- who is a friend of mine and Stick's -- was lured
   away from George Soros.  It's a small world.  Soros (who is crazy) will
   now be looking for a new man.  With luck, we can get someone we know
   placed into that job.  The old boy network has been invaluable for
   information or intelligence on various issues.    
    
    
   Tactical
    
   Another chaotic week:  Iranian scientist whacked in Iran follow up;
    
   Mossad smoked a Hamas leader in Dubai (we are trying to figure out more); 
    
   U.S. aviation plot simmers along and the Feds believe another attack is in
   the works. 
    
   Anya was in town.  It was good to see her.  Her attention to detail is
   unsurpassed. 
    
    
   Media
    
   1) Spoke to an award winning National Geographic producer on background
   concerning ICE, border violence and threats to Texas.  He is doing a
   special on ICE primarily and wants to film me later this month.   The
   producer got to me after watching the Gangland series or the other one I
   did for the History Channel.  Can't recall which one.   I did ask him for
   copies of the mags that show the naked women running through the Serengeti
   Plains...
    
   2) Discussions w/Fox News LA for a live TV shot Monday. 
    
   3) KVUE Austin wants to do a special on Capital security next week. 
    
   4) Stick and I will be filmed by The Discovery Channel Feb 11/12 on
   terrorism. 
    
    
   Other
    
   My father-in-law  will have surgery Tuesday at MD Anderson.  Will be
   out-of-pocket but on my Crackberry.       
    
   Ghost film script treatment has been sent to the movie mogul.  Time will
   tell, but I'm more optimistic this time around.  We'll see.   I'm a glass
   half empty guy. 
    
    
    
    
    
</description>
    <date>2010-01-30 05:04:46</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3600993_re-weekly-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>exec@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3624171</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111
</title>
    <description>   this dude really gives the impression that Moscow calls the shots in Kiev

   so basically, Med gets pissed b/c Timo is blowing Putin and not him, so he
   whines to Putin and says drop the B and get behind Yanu like me. Putin
   says fine, Yanu gets excited and oversteps his boundaries, and now Putin
   is like fix this shit Med and Med is like okay, but we dont know what Med
   is actually gonna do to slap Yanu around

   so what's the couterargument to this? Does Russia really have this much
   influence over the situation?  this is something we need to address in
   ukraine reassessment

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marc Lanthemann" &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

   CODE: UA111
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Kiev
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch.
   But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps
   this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to
   begin with.

    

   You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in
   power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew
   Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to
   solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be
   Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most
   easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got
   her in trouble and arrested.

    

   But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no
   respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev
   made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a
   deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if
   Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being
   the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU,
   military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension
   it had been pushing for.

    

   So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009,
   the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing
   to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of
   demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally.

    

   Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev
   to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing
   against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever
   will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-09-14 20:55:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3624171_re-alpha-insight-ukraine-moscow-kiev-spat-ua111-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3635926</id>
    <title>G3/S3* - IRAN/US/ISRAEL/SYRIA - Iran officials accuses USA,	Israel
	of interfering in Syria
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-09-13 09:40:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3635926_g3-s3-iran-us-israel-syria-iran-officials-accuses-usa-israel.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3640451</id>
    <title>FW: email of Fred Burton
</title>
    <description>   That's pretty cool!

   Aaric S. Eisenstein

   Stratfor

   SVP Publishing

   700 Lavaca St., Suite 900

   Austin, TX  78701

   512-744-4308

   512-744-4334 fax

   -----Original Message-----
   From: veni Markovski [mailto:venimarkovski@gmail.com] On Behalf Of Veni
   Markovski
   Sent: Sunday, August 10, 2008 4:46 PM
   To: service@stratfor.com
   Subject: email of Fred Burton

   Hi.

   I am looking for the e-mail of Mr. Burton. Would be glad, if you can send
   it.

   Thank you.

   Sincerely,

   Veni Markovski

   Senior Advisor for International Projects
   &lt;http://www.daits.government.bg/&gt;State Agency for IT and Communications
   &lt;http://www.government.bg/&gt;Council of Ministers | REPUBLIC OF BULGARIA
   ----------------
   email: &lt;mailto:veni@veni.com&gt;veni@veni.com | email2:
   &lt;mailto:veni@daits.government.bg&gt;veni@daits.government.bg
   office: +1-646-873-7708 | office2: +359-2-401-8008 | fax: +1-212-319-5955
   Bulgarian Consulate General, 121 E 62nd Str., New York, NY 10021, USA
</description>
    <date>2008-08-11 00:02:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3640451_fw-email-of-fred-burton-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>exec@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eisenstein@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3692511</id>
    <title>S3 - INDIA/CT/GV- Death toll from derailed train in India now at 60
</title>
    <description>   The red please [chris]

   [this news also has the Assam blast story that caused train derailment the
   end. Bad sunday for Indian railways AR)

   Death toll from derailed train in India now at 60
   AP
   http://news.yahoo.com/death-toll-derailed-train-india-now-60-034936343.html

   LUCKNOW, India (AP) a** Officials say the death toll from a train
   derailment in northern India has risen to 60 as more bodies are being
   pulled out of the mangled coaches.

   The senior army official in charge of rescue operations at the accident
   site says volunteers and soldiers have pulled out 60 bodies from 12
   coaches of the Kalka Mail, which went off the tracks Sunday afternoon.

   Col. Amarjit Dhillon told the Associated Press on Monday that many more
   bodies were trapped under the twisted coaches and soldiers were using gas
   cutters to slice through the metal.

   Rescue workers working through the night rescued many of the more than 100
   injured in the accident near the town of Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh state.

   THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information.
   AP's earlier story is below.

   FATEHPUR, India (AP) a** Rescuers searched for survivors in the wreckage
   of a packed express train that derailed in northern India on Sunday
   afternoon, killing at least 31 people, while officials said a second train
   derailment hundreds of miles (kilometers) to the northeast appeared to
   have been caused by a remote-controlled bomb.

   Rescuers were working to reach the second derailment, which occurred late
   Sunday night in a rural area of Assam state, injuring at least 100. The
   two railway incidents did not appear to be related.

   In the first crash, the Kalka Mail train was on its way to Kalka, in the
   foothills of the Himalayas, from Howrah, a station near Kolkata in eastern
   India, when 12 coaches and the engine jumped the tracks at Malwan station,
   near the town of Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh state, senior railway official
   A.K. Jain said.

   The cause of the derailment was not immediately clear but it appeared that
   the driver applied the emergency brakes, Jain said.

   At least 31 people were killed and rescue workers pulled at least 100
   injured passengers out of the wreckage, said Brij Lal, a state police
   official.

   Hours later, the second train derailed in the northeastern state of Assam,
   injuring at least 100 people, said S.K. Roy, a local magistrate.

   Local police suspect that a remote control-triggered bomb caused four
   coaches of the Gauhati-Puri Express to be thrown off the tracks in the
   town of Rangiya, about 30 miles (50 kilometers) west of the state's
   capital, Gauhati, Roy said.

   S. Hajong, a local railways spokesman, said two of the four coaches
   plunged into a pond and casualties are feared.

   Roy did not blame any rebel group and no one has taken responsibility for
   the attack so far. More than 30 groups in northeastern India have been
   fighting for decades for independence or wide autonomy in the region,
   about 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) east of New Delhi.

   It was the third train accident in India in the last four days. A train
   hit a bus at an unmanned railway crossing last Thursday, killing 35
   people.

   In Fatehpur, the accident site was a pile of twisted metal. At least one
   coach flew above the roof of another ahead of it and was dangling
   precariously, television footage showed. Another coach was thrown away
   from the rest of the train.

   The toll was likely to rise as rescuers made their way through the coaches
   and used gas cutters to cut through the mangled metal, Lal said. Rescue
   efforts continued late into the night.

   "We're trying to cut into the coaches and rescue those still trapped
   inside," Lal said.

   A senior railway official, H.C. Joshi, told CNN-IBN news channel that
   rescuers were struggling to free at least five people pinned under the
   wreckage of one of the worst-damaged coaches.

   Medical personnel rushed to the area, about 75 miles (120 kilometers)
   southeast of Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh state.

   Army helicopters were ferrying the most seriously injured victims to
   hospitals and 30 army engineers had joined the rescue efforts, Lal said.

   TV stations showed local residents helping injured passengers away from
   the train, several in makeshift stretchers, and breaking the windows of
   coaches to help those trapped inside.

   Prime Minister Manmohan Singh expressed "deep sorrow and shock" at the
   loss of lives. The Railways Ministry announced compensation of 500,000
   rupees ($11,000) for the families of those killed in the accident.

   The number of passengers on board the Kalka Mail a** named for its past
   use in the postal service a** was not known. Express trains normally carry
   about 1,000 people and travel at speeds of 60-80 miles (100-130
   kilometers) per hour.

   India's railroad network is one of the largest in the world and carries
   about 14 million passengers a day. Accidents are common, with most blamed
   on poor maintenance and human error.

   --
   Animesh

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   Australia Mobile: 0423372241
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-11 06:52:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-17 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3692511_s3-india-ct-gv-death-toll-from-derailed-train-in-india-now.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3721890</id>
    <title>Fwd: [alpha] REMINDER  -   MUST READ - Reminder on Alpha List Protocol
</title>
    <description>   -------- Original Message --------

    Subject: [alpha] REMINDER - MUST READ - Reminder on Alpha List Protocol 
       Date: Tue, 09 Aug 2011 10:54:23 -0500                                
       From: Michael Wilson &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;                   
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;                                
         To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;                                

   -------- Original Message --------

    Subject: [alpha] MUST READ - Reminder on Alpha List Protocol 
       Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2011 14:57:42 -0500                     
       From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;                   
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;                     
         To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;                     

   We have had lapses in Operational Security Protocol recently regarding the
   Alpha list.  Please remember it is important to maintain operational
   security both for the safety of you and and your sources.   In that view
   please remember and follow the steps below: 

     * Do not mention or refer to the "Alpha list" outside the Alpha List,
       whether this means verbally at the office or on different AOR lists.
       Just refer to "Insight" or "As our Yemeni friend said recently"
     * If sending insight outside the Alpha List, remove source
       header/description and sanitize text for any information that could
       help identify source. If you are not the source handler, make sure you
       clear it with the source handler prior to sending
     * Remove any reference to Alpha list in the subject line of the email.
       Note that our email automatically creates a "[alpha]" prefix in the
       email subject line - this should be removed.
     * This best way to remember some of these steps is to never forward
       insight, but rather copy appropriate information into a new email

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com


 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4300 ex 4112
</description>
    <date>2011-09-14 02:03:21</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-05 16:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3721890_fwd-alpha-reminder-must-read-reminder-on-alpha-list-protocol.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>michael.wilson@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ashley.harrison@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3809273</id>
    <title>S3 - INDIA/CT/GV- Death toll from derailed train in India now at 60
</title>
    <description>   The red please [chris]

   [this news also has the Assam blast story that caused train derailment the
   end. Bad sunday for Indian railways AR)

   Death toll from derailed train in India now at 60
   AP
   http://news.yahoo.com/death-toll-derailed-train-india-now-60-034936343.html

   LUCKNOW, India (AP) a** Officials say the death toll from a train
   derailment in northern India has risen to 60 as more bodies are being
   pulled out of the mangled coaches.

   The senior army official in charge of rescue operations at the accident
   site says volunteers and soldiers have pulled out 60 bodies from 12
   coaches of the Kalka Mail, which went off the tracks Sunday afternoon.

   Col. Amarjit Dhillon told the Associated Press on Monday that many more
   bodies were trapped under the twisted coaches and soldiers were using gas
   cutters to slice through the metal.

   Rescue workers working through the night rescued many of the more than 100
   injured in the accident near the town of Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh state.

   THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information.
   AP's earlier story is below.

   FATEHPUR, India (AP) a** Rescuers searched for survivors in the wreckage
   of a packed express train that derailed in northern India on Sunday
   afternoon, killing at least 31 people, while officials said a second train
   derailment hundreds of miles (kilometers) to the northeast appeared to
   have been caused by a remote-controlled bomb.

   Rescuers were working to reach the second derailment, which occurred late
   Sunday night in a rural area of Assam state, injuring at least 100. The
   two railway incidents did not appear to be related.

   In the first crash, the Kalka Mail train was on its way to Kalka, in the
   foothills of the Himalayas, from Howrah, a station near Kolkata in eastern
   India, when 12 coaches and the engine jumped the tracks at Malwan station,
   near the town of Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh state, senior railway official
   A.K. Jain said.

   The cause of the derailment was not immediately clear but it appeared that
   the driver applied the emergency brakes, Jain said.

   At least 31 people were killed and rescue workers pulled at least 100
   injured passengers out of the wreckage, said Brij Lal, a state police
   official.

   Hours later, the second train derailed in the northeastern state of Assam,
   injuring at least 100 people, said S.K. Roy, a local magistrate.

   Local police suspect that a remote control-triggered bomb caused four
   coaches of the Gauhati-Puri Express to be thrown off the tracks in the
   town of Rangiya, about 30 miles (50 kilometers) west of the state's
   capital, Gauhati, Roy said.

   S. Hajong, a local railways spokesman, said two of the four coaches
   plunged into a pond and casualties are feared.

   Roy did not blame any rebel group and no one has taken responsibility for
   the attack so far. More than 30 groups in northeastern India have been
   fighting for decades for independence or wide autonomy in the region,
   about 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) east of New Delhi.

   It was the third train accident in India in the last four days. A train
   hit a bus at an unmanned railway crossing last Thursday, killing 35
   people.

   In Fatehpur, the accident site was a pile of twisted metal. At least one
   coach flew above the roof of another ahead of it and was dangling
   precariously, television footage showed. Another coach was thrown away
   from the rest of the train.

   The toll was likely to rise as rescuers made their way through the coaches
   and used gas cutters to cut through the mangled metal, Lal said. Rescue
   efforts continued late into the night.

   "We're trying to cut into the coaches and rescue those still trapped
   inside," Lal said.

   A senior railway official, H.C. Joshi, told CNN-IBN news channel that
   rescuers were struggling to free at least five people pinned under the
   wreckage of one of the worst-damaged coaches.

   Medical personnel rushed to the area, about 75 miles (120 kilometers)
   southeast of Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh state.

   Army helicopters were ferrying the most seriously injured victims to
   hospitals and 30 army engineers had joined the rescue efforts, Lal said.

   TV stations showed local residents helping injured passengers away from
   the train, several in makeshift stretchers, and breaking the windows of
   coaches to help those trapped inside.

   Prime Minister Manmohan Singh expressed "deep sorrow and shock" at the
   loss of lives. The Railways Ministry announced compensation of 500,000
   rupees ($11,000) for the families of those killed in the accident.

   The number of passengers on board the Kalka Mail a** named for its past
   use in the postal service a** was not known. Express trains normally carry
   about 1,000 people and travel at speeds of 60-80 miles (100-130
   kilometers) per hour.

   India's railroad network is one of the largest in the world and carries
   about 14 million passengers a day. Accidents are common, with most blamed
   on poor maintenance and human error.

   --
   Animesh

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   Australia Mobile: 0423372241
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-11 06:52:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-17 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3809273_s3-india-ct-gv-death-toll-from-derailed-train-in-india-now.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3812867</id>
    <title>G3/S3* - IRAN/US/ISRAEL/SYRIA - Iran officials accuses USA,	Israel
	of interfering in Syria
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-09-13 09:40:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3812867_g3-s3-iran-us-israel-syria-iran-officials-accuses-usa-israel.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3828185</id>
    <title>Re: [OS] CANADA/GV - Canadian opposition leader Jack Layton dies
</title>
    <description>   Party will survive but it will be weakened. Because you are right,
   Layton's massive charisma took his party from the distant # 3 position to
   a very strong # 2. Don't see anyone who can replace him. Between Layton's
   death and the rout of the LP in the recent election, the Canadian left has
   been dealt some serious blows.

   On 8/23/11 10:46 AM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

     now the question is whether his crackpot party can survive him

     he was VERY charismatic

     On 8/23/11 9:13 AM, Michael Redding wrote:

       This actually happened yesterday, just looks like no one sent it in. 
       This is gonna probably help out the Conservative Party cause Layton
       was a great political strategist.  He pretty much single-handedly
       caused the NDP to become the second largest bloc in Canada's
       parliament.

       Canadian opposition leader Jack Layton dies
       Tuesday, August 23, 2011
       http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2011\08\23\story_23-8-2011_pg4_7

       OTTAWA: Jack Layton, the charismatic leader of Canada's official
       opposition, died on Monday just months after guiding his New
       Democratic Party to its strongest ever performance in the May federal
       election.

       Layton, 61, had almost single-handedly turned his leftist party from
       the smallest bloc in the House of Commons to the second largest in the
       House of Commons. "He passed away peacefully at his home surrounded by
       family and loved ones," a statement from his family said.

       The cheerful former municipal politician from Toronto had won
       admiration for his bravado and stamina on the campaign trail, pumping
       a walking cane in the air soon after a hip operation and treatment for
       prostate cancer.

       Rather than making him look weak, pundits said it gave the
       ever-cheerful Layton a warmer image than his political rivals,
       boosting his party's popularity even as Stephen Harper's ruling
       Conservatives were returned to office with a majority.

       The NDP's strong showing meant that the party displaced the Liberals
       as the official opposition in the House of Commons. It will retain
       that status until the next election, due in 2015, but will have to
       redefine itself in Layton's absence. reuters
</description>
    <date>2011-08-23 16:54:04</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-06-20 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3828185_re-os-canada-gv-canadian-opposition-leader-jack-layton-dies-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3838767</id>
    <title>Fwd: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
</title>
    <description>   Ryan Sims
   Global Intelligence
   STRATFOR
   T: 512-744-4087
   F: 512-744-0570
   ryan.sims@stratfor.com
   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
     Date: June 16, 2011 1:04:08 PM CDT
     To: STRATFOR &lt;service@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: RE: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
     Kudos*a great explanation for those who don't understand or appreciate
     the efforts that go into a real intel op*as opposed to the Hollywood BS
     everyone seems to expect.
      
     I remind people all the time that we got the courier's name back in '03
     -- and thank goodness didn't take the typical "cuff 'em and drag him in"
     approach many had advocated. We stayed patient and threw real analytical
     support into this one. Took some time -- but the patient oriental
     approach usually pays bigger dividends.  M
      
     From: STRATFOR [mailto:mail@response.stratfor.com] 
     Sent: Thursday, June 16, 2011 11:45 AM
     To: Michael Maness
     Subject: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
      

View on Mobile Phone | Read the online version.                                  

      

     STRATFOR Weekly Intelligence Update                                      
     Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier: Special Edition of Above the        
     Tearline                                                                 
     The weekly Above the Tearline video series is part of our members-only   
     content. We hope you enjoy this exclusive chance to access it free.      
                                                                              
     [IMG]                                                                    
     Watch this exclusive edition of Above the Tearline                       
                                                                              
             Above the Tearline: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier          
                                                                              
                                                                              
                                                                              
     Vice President of Intelligence Fred Burton examines the sophisticated    
     surveillance operation that led to the raid on Osama bin Laden*s safe    
     house in Pakistan. Click here to view.                                   
     Save on annual memberships                                               
     Connect with usTwitterFacebookYoutubeSTRATFOR Mobile                     
     New to STRATFOR? Get these free intel reports emailed to you. If you did 
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</description>
    <date>2011-06-16 20:08:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3838767_fwd-surveillance-of-bin-laden-s-courier-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>service@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>responses@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3852820</id>
    <title>[MESA] India - Train Derailments?
</title>
    <description>   This might be a good trigger for reassessing Indian militancy -- would be
   especially interesting to see who did this one since it's much larger than
   we've seen recently.  No one has claimed responsibility yet and several
   groups have condemned the blasts.  Any other thoughts we have on who did
   it would be much appreciated.

   -------- Original Message --------

    Subject: S3 - INDIA/CT/GV- Death toll from derailed train in India now at 
             60                                                               
       Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2011 23:52:43 -0500 (CDT)                            
       From: Chris Farnham &lt;chris.farnham@stratfor.com&gt;                       
   Reply-To: analysts@stratfor.com                                            
         To: alerts@stratfor.com                                              

   The red please [chris]

   [this news also has the Assam blast story that caused train derailment the
   end. Bad sunday for Indian railways AR)

   Death toll from derailed train in India now at 60
   AP
   http://news.yahoo.com/death-toll-derailed-train-india-now-60-034936343.html

   LUCKNOW, India (AP) - Officials say the death toll from a train derailment
   in northern India has risen to 60 as more bodies are being pulled out of
   the mangled coaches.

   The senior army official in charge of rescue operations at the accident
   site says volunteers and soldiers have pulled out 60 bodies from 12
   coaches of the Kalka Mail, which went off the tracks Sunday afternoon.

   Col. Amarjit Dhillon told the Associated Press on Monday that many more
   bodies were trapped under the twisted coaches and soldiers were using gas
   cutters to slice through the metal.

   Rescue workers working through the night rescued many of the more than 100
   injured in the accident near the town of Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh state.

   THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information.
   AP's earlier story is below.

   FATEHPUR, India (AP) - Rescuers searched for survivors in the wreckage of
   a packed express train that derailed in northern India on Sunday
   afternoon, killing at least 31 people, while officials said a second train
   derailment hundreds of miles (kilometers) to the northeast appeared to
   have been caused by a remote-controlled bomb.

   Rescuers were working to reach the second derailment, which occurred late
   Sunday night in a rural area of Assam state, injuring at least 100. The
   two railway incidents did not appear to be related.

   In the first crash, the Kalka Mail train was on its way to Kalka, in the
   foothills of the Himalayas, from Howrah, a station near Kolkata in eastern
   India, when 12 coaches and the engine jumped the tracks at Malwan station,
   near the town of Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh state, senior railway official
   A.K. Jain said.

   The cause of the derailment was not immediately clear but it appeared that
   the driver applied the emergency brakes, Jain said.

   At least 31 people were killed and rescue workers pulled at least 100
   injured passengers out of the wreckage, said Brij Lal, a state police
   official.

   Hours later, the second train derailed in the northeastern state of Assam,
   injuring at least 100 people, said S.K. Roy, a local magistrate.

   Local police suspect that a remote control-triggered bomb caused four
   coaches of the Gauhati-Puri Express to be thrown off the tracks in the
   town of Rangiya, about 30 miles (50 kilometers) west of the state's
   capital, Gauhati, Roy said.

   S. Hajong, a local railways spokesman, said two of the four coaches
   plunged into a pond and casualties are feared.

   Roy did not blame any rebel group and no one has taken responsibility for
   the attack so far. More than 30 groups in northeastern India have been
   fighting for decades for independence or wide autonomy in the region,
   about 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) east of New Delhi.

   It was the third train accident in India in the last four days. A train
   hit a bus at an unmanned railway crossing last Thursday, killing 35
   people.

   In Fatehpur, the accident site was a pile of twisted metal. At least one
   coach flew above the roof of another ahead of it and was dangling
   precariously, television footage showed. Another coach was thrown away
   from the rest of the train.

   The toll was likely to rise as rescuers made their way through the coaches
   and used gas cutters to cut through the mangled metal, Lal said. Rescue
   efforts continued late into the night.

   "We're trying to cut into the coaches and rescue those still trapped
   inside," Lal said.

   A senior railway official, H.C. Joshi, told CNN-IBN news channel that
   rescuers were struggling to free at least five people pinned under the
   wreckage of one of the worst-damaged coaches.

   Medical personnel rushed to the area, about 75 miles (120 kilometers)
   southeast of Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh state.

   Army helicopters were ferrying the most seriously injured victims to
   hospitals and 30 army engineers had joined the rescue efforts, Lal said.

   TV stations showed local residents helping injured passengers away from
   the train, several in makeshift stretchers, and breaking the windows of
   coaches to help those trapped inside.

   Prime Minister Manmohan Singh expressed "deep sorrow and shock" at the
   loss of lives. The Railways Ministry announced compensation of 500,000
   rupees ($11,000) for the families of those killed in the accident.

   The number of passengers on board the Kalka Mail - named for its past use
   in the postal service - was not known. Express trains normally carry about
   1,000 people and travel at speeds of 60-80 miles (100-130 kilometers) per
   hour.

   India's railroad network is one of the largest in the world and carries
   about 14 million passengers a day. Accidents are common, with most blamed
   on poor maintenance and human error.

   --
   Animesh

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   Australia Mobile: 0423372241
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-11 14:29:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-17 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3852820_-mesa-india-train-derailments-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mesa@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:mesa@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3871842</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
	CODE
</title>
    <description>   Agree
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: scott stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:59:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;; Korena Zucha&lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Anya Alfano&lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   I'll bet cash they are connected to the Austin guys busted for the DNC
   plot plus some of the Austin Earth First jabronis. 
   From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 11:51:44 -0600
   To: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Anya Alfano &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;, Alpha List
   &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Have we seen Deep Green Resistance carry-out acts of violence in the
   past? 

   On 11/16/2011 6:38 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not "radical" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the "Phoenix Commune" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as "stupid, crazy motherfuckers", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, "Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-18 21:17:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3871842_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3889183</id>
    <title>G3/S3* - IRAN/US/ISRAEL/SYRIA - Iran officials accuses USA,	Israel
	of interfering in Syria
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-09-13 09:40:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3889183_g3-s3-iran-us-israel-syria-iran-officials-accuses-usa-israel.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3891904</id>
    <title>G3/S3* - IRAN/US/ISRAEL/SYRIA - Iran officials accuses USA,	Israel
	of interfering in Syria
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-09-13 09:40:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3891904_g3-s3-iran-us-israel-syria-iran-officials-accuses-usa-israel.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3915729</id>
    <title>Fwd: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
</title>
    <description>   Ryan Sims
   Global Intelligence
   STRATFOR
   T: 512-744-4087
   F: 512-744-0570
   ryan.sims@stratfor.com
   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
     Date: June 16, 2011 1:04:08 PM CDT
     To: STRATFOR &lt;service@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: RE: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
     Kudos*a great explanation for those who don't understand or appreciate
     the efforts that go into a real intel op*as opposed to the Hollywood BS
     everyone seems to expect.
      
     I remind people all the time that we got the courier's name back in '03
     -- and thank goodness didn't take the typical "cuff 'em and drag him in"
     approach many had advocated. We stayed patient and threw real analytical
     support into this one. Took some time -- but the patient oriental
     approach usually pays bigger dividends.  M
      
     From: STRATFOR [mailto:mail@response.stratfor.com] 
     Sent: Thursday, June 16, 2011 11:45 AM
     To: Michael Maness
     Subject: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier
      

View on Mobile Phone | Read the online version.                                  

      

     STRATFOR Weekly Intelligence Update                                      
     Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier: Special Edition of Above the        
     Tearline                                                                 
     The weekly Above the Tearline video series is part of our members-only   
     content. We hope you enjoy this exclusive chance to access it free.      
                                                                              
     [IMG]                                                                    
     Watch this exclusive edition of Above the Tearline                       
                                                                              
             Above the Tearline: Surveillance of bin Laden's Courier          
                                                                              
                                                                              
                                                                              
     Vice President of Intelligence Fred Burton examines the sophisticated    
     surveillance operation that led to the raid on Osama bin Laden*s safe    
     house in Pakistan. Click here to view.                                   
     Save on annual memberships                                               
     Connect with usTwitterFacebookYoutubeSTRATFOR Mobile                     
     New to STRATFOR? Get these free intel reports emailed to you. If you did 
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     STRATFOR
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     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-06-16 20:08:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3915729_fwd-surveillance-of-bin-laden-s-courier-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>service@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>responses@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:responses@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3940281</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged "Anonymous" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise "anonymous"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-10 19:47:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3940281_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3944706</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - Mexico - Nuevo Laredo Firefight is Mex op with US help
 - US714
</title>
    <description>   Source Code: US714
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security Source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Officer with direct oversight of
   border investigations
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   SPECIAL HANDLING: none
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   Mx planned ops with U.S. help.

   MX PLANNED ops with "some U.S. DOD assets."
</description>
    <date>2011-10-28 14:30:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 05:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3944706_insight-mexico-nuevo-laredo-firefight-is-mex-op-with-us-help.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>fred.burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>watchofficer@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3963716</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-11 13:59:34</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3963716_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3971285</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
 CODE
</title>
    <description>   It might sound strange, but some of the most radical deep ecology people
   actually believe that there are too many people on the earth and that
   radical steps must be taken to reduce the population and save the earth.
    This strain of deep ecology is a clear reflection of the way the movement
   was heavily influenced by people like Martin Heidegger who were also
   committed to Nazism. Yes, Nazis were radical environmentalists.....
   From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 23:08:31 -0600
   To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Jesus I spent a couple of hours researching these guys - weird is an
   understatement. Apparently they met yesterday a couple of blocks away from
   my house to consolidate their leadership, go through basic indoctrination
   and plan more events. As far as I can tell, the Austin chapter is not
   nearly as radical as the central Lierre Keith DGR whose website is a
   treasure trove of incitment to passive resistance, blowing up energy
   infra, basic counter intel and legal guidance.

   Their ideology seems to be a mix of hardcore environmentalism, anarchism,
   radical feminism and the general notion that we need to go back living
   sustainably like the american indians by blowing up every pipeline and
   cell tower on the planet. Unlike the central DGR, Austin DGR doesn't seem
   to have defined targets and goals (their meeting yesterday was a
   brainstorming session on what radical environmentalism means in Austin).

   just a few nice quotes from their central website:

   The task of an activist is not to navigate systems of oppressive power
   with as much personal integrity as possible; it is to dismantle those
   systems.

   What would we do if Nazis had invaded, and they were vacuuming the oceans,
   scalping native forests, damming every river, changing the climate, and
   putting carcinogens into every mother's breast milk, and into the flesh of
   your children, your lover, your mother, into your own flesh? How much
   worse would the damage have to get? Would you resist? If there existed a
   resistance movement, would you join it?

   On 11/16/11 7:42 PM, Victoria Allen wrote:

     WHOA.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 18:38:01 -0600
     To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Cc: Anya Alfano&lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
     CODE
     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not "radical" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the "Phoenix Commune" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as "stupid, crazy motherfuckers", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, "Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-17 14:01:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3971285_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>3980511</id>
    <title>MORE-Insight - Libya - Confirmation Gadhafi is dead - LY700
</title>
    <description>   From source in Sirte who took part:

   He was killed while trying to escape via a drainage pipe in Sirte by
   Misratah brigade.

   Along with him was his def minister (dead) and his son Mutassim (dead).

   All the bodies have been taken to city of Misratah.

   On 10/20/11 10:45 AM, Anya Alfano wrote:

     Source Code: LY700
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Govt security contractor on US Govt assignment in
     Libya
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: B
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: A
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     My sources are CONFIRMING he's dead. Killed in ground action Sirte.
     Sorry - might be late coming. Lots going on - was hard to reach them.
</description>
    <date>2011-10-20 20:41:36</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-19 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3980511_more-insight-libya-confirmation-gadhafi-is-dead-ly700-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>anya.alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>fred.burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>watchofficer@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4009016</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-11 13:59:34</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4009016_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4035023</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111
</title>
    <description>   this dude really gives the impression that Moscow calls the shots in Kiev

   so basically, Med gets pissed b/c Timo is blowing Putin and not him, so he
   whines to Putin and says drop the B and get behind Yanu like me. Putin
   says fine, Yanu gets excited and oversteps his boundaries, and now Putin
   is like fix this shit Med and Med is like okay, but we dont know what Med
   is actually gonna do to slap Yanu around

   so what's the couterargument to this? Does Russia really have this much
   influence over the situation?  this is something we need to address in
   ukraine reassessment

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marc Lanthemann" &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

   CODE: UA111
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Kiev
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch.
   But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps
   this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to
   begin with.

    

   You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in
   power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew
   Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to
   solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be
   Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most
   easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got
   her in trouble and arrested.

    

   But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no
   respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev
   made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a
   deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if
   Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being
   the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU,
   military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension
   it had been pushing for.

    

   So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009,
   the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing
   to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of
   demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally.

    

   Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev
   to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing
   against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever
   will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-09-14 20:55:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4035023_re-alpha-insight-ukraine-moscow-kiev-spat-ua111-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4061385</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged "Anonymous" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise "anonymous"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-10 19:47:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4061385_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4117167</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [OS] CHINA/CT/MIL - Chinese army develops drug to
 keep soldiers awake for up to 72 hours - paper
</title>
    <description>   scifi comingn true

   On 10/17/11 8:15 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

    Chinese army develops drug to keep soldiers awake for up to 72 hours -   
    paper                                                                    
                                                                             
    Text of report headlined "PLA eyes 'night eagle' to make army of night   
    owls" published by Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post website  
    on 16 October                                                            
                                                                             
    The People's Liberation Army (PLA) [Chinese army] has opened up a new    
    front in the war against sleep.                                          
                                                                             
    It has developed a drug that can keep its soldiers awake and active for  
    as long as 72 hours, state television reported yesterday. But its        
    scientists didn't disclose its ingredients.                              
                                                                             
    The anti-sleep drug - called Night Eagle - was unveiled as one of 600    
    scientific achievements in an exhibition marking the 60th anniversary of 
    the Academy of Military Medical Sciences. The China Central Television   
    report did not give further details about the new drug, such as any hint 
    of its composition, how it works or its possible side effects.           
                                                                             
    Instead, quoting academy researcher Wang Lin, it said the drug was       
    developed specifically for the military to help soldiers cope with sleep 
    deprivation during missions.                                             
                                                                             
    "Our troops will have to stay awake for a long time while being able to  
    maintain cognitive abilities when they are deployed in search and rescue 
    operations after earthquakes, floods and other disasters and some        
    special military missions," Wang said.                                   
                                                                             
    Analysts said the Night Eagle drug appeared similar to                   
    sleep-suppressants widely used by armed forces of other countries.       
                                                                             
    "Although I have no information about the newly invented drug, it is not 
    at all surprising to see efforts to control sleep and develop anti-sleep 
    technology because of their apparent practical uses in combat            
    situations," said Professor Ni Lexiong, a Shanghai-based military        
    expert.                                                                  
                                                                             
    "Whether our troops can deprive themselves of sleep hours or even days   
    longer than their opponents could make a major difference in combat," Ni 
    said.                                                                    
                                                                             
    Ni believed the PLA would not reveal the drug's composition or           
    associated experimental data, but said it probably worked the same way   
    as other stimulants developed in the West. Any possible side effects of  
    the drug were also unknown.                                              
                                                                             
    One popular military stimulant in the West is modafinil, which was       
    originally developed to treat narcolepsy but is now used by US, French,  
    British and Indian armed forces as an alternative to amphetamines, as    
    well as by students to fight fatigue.                                    
                                                                             
    Modafinil has been a popular lifestyle drug for people who want to       
    chemically turn off sleep with fewer side effects.                       
                                                                             
    Experts also said anti-sleep drugs were becoming more important hi-tech  
    aids and the US military reportedly developed a formulation that kept    
    soldiers awake for seven straight days and nights in the early 2000s.    
                                                                             
    Source: South China Morning Post website, Hong Kong, in English 16 Oct   
    11                                                                       
                                                                             
    BBC Mon AS1 ASDel ma                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4300 ex 4112

 --
 Anthony Sung
 ADP STRATFOR
</description>
    <date>2011-10-17 15:24:19</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4117167_re-eastasia-os-china-ct-mil-chinese-army-develops-drug-to.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anthony.sung@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4126561</id>
    <title>Re: [EastAsia] [OS] CHINA/CT/MIL - Chinese army develops drug to
 keep soldiers awake for up to 72 hours - paper
</title>
    <description>   thats how why the cartels are so hardcore

   On 10/17/11 8:24 AM, Jose Mora wrote:

     Last time I checked this was called "crack"

     On 10/17/11 8:15 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

    Chinese army develops drug to keep soldiers awake for up to 72 hours -   
    paper                                                                    
                                                                             
    Text of report headlined "PLA eyes 'night eagle' to make army of night   
    owls" published by Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post website  
    on 16 October                                                            
                                                                             
    The People's Liberation Army (PLA) [Chinese army] has opened up a new    
    front in the war against sleep.                                          
                                                                             
    It has developed a drug that can keep its soldiers awake and active for  
    as long as 72 hours, state television reported yesterday. But its        
    scientists didn't disclose its ingredients.                              
                                                                             
    The anti-sleep drug - called Night Eagle - was unveiled as one of 600    
    scientific achievements in an exhibition marking the 60th anniversary of 
    the Academy of Military Medical Sciences. The China Central Television   
    report did not give further details about the new drug, such as any hint 
    of its composition, how it works or its possible side effects.           
                                                                             
    Instead, quoting academy researcher Wang Lin, it said the drug was       
    developed specifically for the military to help soldiers cope with sleep 
    deprivation during missions.                                             
                                                                             
    "Our troops will have to stay awake for a long time while being able to  
    maintain cognitive abilities when they are deployed in search and rescue 
    operations after earthquakes, floods and other disasters and some        
    special military missions," Wang said.                                   
                                                                             
    Analysts said the Night Eagle drug appeared similar to                   
    sleep-suppressants widely used by armed forces of other countries.       
                                                                             
    "Although I have no information about the newly invented drug, it is not 
    at all surprising to see efforts to control sleep and develop anti-sleep 
    technology because of their apparent practical uses in combat            
    situations," said Professor Ni Lexiong, a Shanghai-based military        
    expert.                                                                  
                                                                             
    "Whether our troops can deprive themselves of sleep hours or even days   
    longer than their opponents could make a major difference in combat," Ni 
    said.                                                                    
                                                                             
    Ni believed the PLA would not reveal the drug's composition or           
    associated experimental data, but said it probably worked the same way   
    as other stimulants developed in the West. Any possible side effects of  
    the drug were also unknown.                                              
                                                                             
    One popular military stimulant in the West is modafinil, which was       
    originally developed to treat narcolepsy but is now used by US, French,  
    British and Indian armed forces as an alternative to amphetamines, as    
    well as by students to fight fatigue.                                    
                                                                             
    Modafinil has been a popular lifestyle drug for people who want to       
    chemically turn off sleep with fewer side effects.                       
                                                                             
    Experts also said anti-sleep drugs were becoming more important hi-tech  
    aids and the US military reportedly developed a formulation that kept    
    soldiers awake for seven straight days and nights in the early 2000s.    
                                                                             
    Source: South China Morning Post website, Hong Kong, in English 16 Oct   
    11                                                                       
                                                                             
    BBC Mon AS1 ASDel ma                                                     

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4300 ex 4112

 --
 JOSE MORA
 ADP
 STRATFOR

 --
 Anthony Sung
 ADP STRATFOR
</description>
    <date>2011-10-17 15:25:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4126561_re-eastasia-os-china-ct-mil-chinese-army-develops-drug-to.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4151278</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
	CODE
</title>
    <description>   Agree
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: scott stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:59:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;; Korena Zucha&lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Anya Alfano&lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   I'll bet cash they are connected to the Austin guys busted for the DNC
   plot plus some of the Austin Earth First jabronis. 
   From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 11:51:44 -0600
   To: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Anya Alfano &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;, Alpha List
   &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Have we seen Deep Green Resistance carry-out acts of violence in the
   past? 

   On 11/16/2011 6:38 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not "radical" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the "Phoenix Commune" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as "stupid, crazy motherfuckers", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, "Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-18 21:17:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4151278_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4199951</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] Anonymous and Occupy divergence...in the Iowa caucuses
</title>
    <description>   Actually that is interesting analysis. It is domestic and not
   geopolitical, but it is certainly interesting to watch. 
   From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Wed, 9 Nov 2011 21:30:51 -0600 (CST)
   To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Peter Zeihan &lt;peter.zeihan@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: [CT] Anonymous and Occupy divergence...in the Iowa caucuses
   Ironically after all my Anonymous bashing, i want to point out a very
   minor development. Mainly because it's funny to me. 

   I mentioned the Occupy Des Moines protest last week sometime.  It is very
   small, and a lot like Austin's.  They have been planning for a few weeks
   to Occupy the Iowa caucuses.  For those of you that don't know about the
   practice of the most important local democratic process in the world, the
   Iowa Caucuses are the first round of true competition between presidential
   candidates.  Unlike voting in a primary, it's more like a town hall
   meeting with much debate and discussion--a very open democratic form.  A
   candidate doesn't have to win Iowa necessarily to get the presidential
   nomination, but it serves to weed most of the bad ones early on in the
   race  (Iowans are fallible, they have made mistakes too). It's the one
   time that Iowa has an influence on politics, and I often say it is Iowa's
   one good thing.  I think it's January 3. 

   Back to the protestors.  Their plan has been developing to "occupy"
   candidate's offices.  That really means protest in front of the offices,
   which if you think of all the little shitty strip malls you see around,
   one small section would be a campaign office.  They have no security, and
   allow a lot of access to candidates if they choose to campaign in Iowa.
   The Occupy Des Moines group are not at all planning to disrupt the
   Caucuses functioning.  Though I wouldn't be surprised if they protested
   outside caucus meeting places, or more likely, brought their signs and
   slogans in with them.  These people are experienced organizers (as it
   comes to des moines), and know that if they have a political impact, one
   of the best places to aim it is the Caucuses. 

   Now here comes "Anonymous."  Those of you that read the Wired background
   know that their real effect has been in popularizing "memes."  One of
   these was actually Occupy Wall Street- 
   http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/20/occupy-wall-street-anonymous-connection_n_1021665.html 
   The mob of computer users and protest movement have been running on
   parallel tracks for awhile, and have served to mutually reinforce each
   other.

   Whoever from Anonymous made this new video about the Caucuses has made an
   ass out of themselves.  The video recommends actually shutting down the
   Caucuses.  That is both tactically dumb for the Occupy movement, but also
   totally antithetical to its general ideology.  For example, a Caucus
   functions very similarly to the Occupy General Assembly meetings--direct
   participatory democracy. 

   The Des Moines organizers have already spoken up- saying they have nothing
   to do with this "Anonymous" bullshit.  I'm happy to see I left them with
   some sense of realism.  This little event is not going to matter very
   much, but it shows how uncoordinated Anonymous is. 

   See the article below, the video is at the link. 

   Video calls for shutting down Iowa caucuses; the group Anonymous claims
   responsibility
   Jason Clayworth
   4:55 PM, Nov 6, 2011
   http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/11/06/video-calls-for-shutting-down-iowa-caucuses-the-group-anonymous-claims-responsibility/

   An anarchist-style movement that has caught the attention of the FBI and
   taken credit for hacking into military and corporate websites has now
   claimed responsibility for creating a video that urges its supporters to
   shut down the Iowa caucuses.

   Local authorities say they are aware of the video, are preparing for
   possible action by the group and are in contact with the presidential
   campaigns about the issue.

   A computer-generated voice in the online video, which had received more
   than 1,600 views by Sunday evening, says, "Both parties are desecrating
   the American democracy and committing crimes against humanity on behalf of
   the American people."

   It continues: "The primaries and caucuses put on by these parties are part
   of an elaborate scam that deceives the public into voting for candidates
   that serve the private interests of the mega corporations. These parties
   have deliberately driven tens of millions of people into poverty."

   It later says: "We are calling upon you to occupy the campaign offices of
   presidential headquarters in Des Moines, Iowa, on Dec. 27, and peacefully
   shut down the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3."

   The group is believed to have no centralized operational leadership and
   appears to be piggybacking on the Occupy Des Moines movement.

   But Occupy Des Moines leaders say there's a difference: The Iowa group's
   planned sit-ins at presidential campaign headquarters are not intended to
   shut down the Iowa caucuses, they say. Rather, they want to target
   presidential candidates and big-moneyed corporations that activists say
   are pulling the strings behind the scenes.

   While there are similarities between the groups' beliefs, they are
   separate, Occupy Des Moines participants emphasized Sunday.

   "I don't like it one bit," former Rep. Ed Fallon, a Des Moines Democrat
   and participant in Occupy Des Moines, said of the video on Sunday. "It
   doesn't fit with my definition of Gandhi- and Martin Luther King Jr.-style
   nonviolence. The core of nonviolent action is truth. And if you are doing
   everything you can to be truthful, then you should be up front and
   transparent. No distorting of your voice or hiding."

   FBI sees Anonymous as security threat

   The Anonymous movement has become a potential national security threat,
   according to an article published in September by the Associated Press.

   The FBI has carried out more than 75 raids and arrested at least 16 people
   this year in connection with illegal Internet hacking jobs for which the
   group has claimed responsibility, according to the AP. One demonstration
   disrupted traffic in San Francisco as a protest after the Bay Area Rapid
   Transit system shut off cell service to deter a planned protest of a
   police shooting on a subway platform.

   The group also claimed responsibility for hacking the online payment
   processing center PayPal after it had suspended WikiLeaks' account after
   WikiLeaks published sensitive U.S. government intelligence documents, the
   AP reported.

   Three of the Iowa campaign headquarters of presidential candidates are in
   Urbandale - those of Michele Bachmann, a U.S. representative from
   Minnesota; former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain; and former
   Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.

   Urbandale police are aware of the video, and while they aren't releasing
   details of their security plans, authorities will be prepared should the
   demonstrations take an illegal turn, Urbandale officer Randy Peterson said
   Sunday.

   "We'll just try to address any issue as they arise," Peterson said.

   Occupy movement: We don't plan to interfere with voting

   Occupy Des Moines, an offshoot of an anti-Wall Street protest group, last
   week announced plans to launch nonviolent sit-ins inside campaign offices
   in the final week before the Iowa caucuses. Some of the group's members
   have said they expect large-scale arrests, but they have emphasized they
   do not plan to commit violence or interfere with voting.

   "There might be some overlap" in what the groups believe, "but Anonymous
   speaks for themselves and the Occupy Movement speaks for itself," said
   David Goodner, a demonstrator who often speaks on behalf of Occupy Des
   Moines. "Whether the public can understand that or not, I'm not sure, but
   for me there's a clear difference."

   State officials were preparing for a variety of public safety scenarios
   associated with the Iowa caucuses before the video was released, said John
   Benson, a public information officer for Iowa's Homeland Security and
   Emergency Management Division

   "Obviously with the video that they've put out and some of the other work
   they're doing, that certainly increases your overall awareness," Benson
   said. "But to say we're going to do something specific in our planning
   process, we can't say that right now, but it certainly has our attention."

   Party leaders: Let caucuses proceed

   Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Matt Strawn said the party's state
   central committee will discuss the situation at its next meeting.

   "Successive generations of Iowans of both political parties have worked
   awfully hard to make sure Iowans have this opportunity to participate in
   this first-in-the-nation caucus," Strawn said. "I certainly will do
   anything in my power to keep outside agitators from ruining something that
   a lot of people have worked very hard for over a long period of time."

   The integrity of the Iowa caucuses would be eroded should attempts to shut
   them down be successful, said Iowa Democratic Party Chairwoman Sue
   Dvorsky.

   "If anyone is coming and planning to make it so the participants of the
   caucus cannot have a civil and civic conversation, then of course that
   would erode the integrity of the caucuses, and it flies in the face of
   what the caucuses are," Dvorsky said. "They're the most basic
   long-standing tradition in this country of neighbors coming together to
   talk about political issues."

   She continued: "I'm hoping Iowans can protect their ability to speak
   freely and respectfully with their neighbors."

   About Anonymous

   Anonymous emerged in 2003 from an Internet chat channel where members
   organized web incidents for their own amusement.

   By 2008, the prankster nature of Anonymous morphed into "hacktivism,"
   where members sabotaged websites and leaked confidential information for
   political purposes, according to law enforcement authorities.

   The group has no formal leadership and is generally considered to be more
   of a movement than an organization. As the name implies, its members
   generally don't identify themselves.

   The group has generally concentrated on Internet hacking. This summer, it
   claimed credit for hacking into a Booz Allen Hamilton website and leaking
   email addresses of 90,000 U.S. military personnel and hacking a Monsanto
   Co. website and releasing personal data on 2,500 employees.

   Sources: USA Today and the Associated Press

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967
   www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-10 11:10:37</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4199951_re-ct-anonymous-and-occupy-divergence-in-the-iowa-caucuses-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4211069</id>
    <title>G3/S3* - IRAN/US/ISRAEL/SYRIA - Iran officials accuses USA,	Israel
	of interfering in Syria
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-09-13 09:40:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4211069_g3-s3-iran-us-israel-syria-iran-officials-accuses-usa-israel.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
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      <tag><name>mailto:alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4350087</id>
    <title>G3/S3* - IRAN/US/ISRAEL/SYRIA - Iran officials accuses USA,	Israel
	of interfering in Syria
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-09-13 09:40:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4350087_g3-s3-iran-us-israel-syria-iran-officials-accuses-usa-israel.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>mailto:alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4362341</id>
    <title>PNA/AFRICA/LATAM/MESA - Lebanese Hezbollah chief raps USA,
	urges calm in Syria -
	IRAN/US/ISRAEL/LEBANON/PNA/SYRIA/IRAQ/EGYPT/BAHRAIN/LIBYA/YEMEN/TUNISIA
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-12-07 09:43:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4362341_pna-africa-latam-mesa-lebanese-hezbollah-chief-raps-usa.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>nobody@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
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      <tag><name>translations@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4368525</id>
    <title>G3/S3* - IRAN/US/ISRAEL/SYRIA - Iran officials accuses USA,	Israel
	of interfering in Syria
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-09-13 09:40:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4368525_g3-s3-iran-us-israel-syria-iran-officials-accuses-usa-israel.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>mailto:alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4453038</id>
    <title>[MESA] SYRIA/KSA/LEBANON - Quotes on the Syria-Arab League Peace
	Plan
</title>
    <description>    This includes highlights of the statements from Syrian media and two     
    different Saudi papers.  Just so we can keep track of the overt Saudi    
    sentiment regarding the Arab League plan and Syria.                      
    BBC Monitoring quotes from Middle East Arabic press for 8 Nov 11         
                                                                             
    The following is a selection of quotes from editorials and comment       
    published in the 8 November 2011 editions of Arabic language newspapers  
    in the Middle East and North Africa, as available to the BBC at 0800     
    gmt. Any material from the previous day is indicated as such. Quotes     
    from Palestinian newspapers and those published in the UK are being      
    filed separately.                                                        
                                                                             
                          Syria-Arab League peace plan                       
                                                                             
    Syria's Al-Thawrah: [govt-owned]: "Straightforward and without any       
    embarrassment and in the midst of steps taken by Syria to stop violence, 
    Washington publicly and arrogantly calls on Syrian armed men to not      
    'surrender their arms' in an attempt to foil efforts made to end the     
    fabricated crisis in Syria. What does this mean? It simply means it is   
    new evidence to direct US involvement in violence and sedition in Syria  
    and its encouragement of armed groups to go ahead with their criminal    
    acts against the Syrian people." (Commentary by Yunis Khalaf-            
    "Exceptional US sponsorship")                                            
                                                                             
    Saudi Al-Watan: [privately-owned, pro-govt]: "Time is gradually running  
    out for the Syrian regime and the gap is widening between the political  
    reforms that the Arab League has demanded to stop violence in Syria and  
    measures expected to be adopted by the emergency ministerial meeting of  
    Arab foreign ministers on 12 November... We warn the Syrian regime not   
    against protesters' call for international intervention but for regime's 
    pursuit to get Syria involved in a fierce Iran, particularly in light of 
    the standoff between Iran and the West over the former's nuclear         
    programme... The Arab League peace plan in Syria and Damascus' approval  
    of it are the last lifeboat for the Syrian regime. The Syrian regime     
    should resort to real national dialogue and recognize the opposition as  
    an influential part of the society." (Editorial- "Syria, racing against  
    time")                                                                   
                                                                             
    Saudi Al-Riyadh: [privately-owned, pro-govt]: "The Arab League will hold 
    a meeting on Syria on 12 November. However, does it have the mechanism   
    to put pressure to bear on Damascus? Let's suppose that an Arab League   
    resolution would be made suspending Syria's membership in the Arab       
    organization. I think the maximum the Arab League can do in this regard  
    is to move the issue of protecting the Syrian people to the UN Security  
    Council to take resolutions under an Arab umbrella... Evidence to        
    failure of the Arab League project is that it is objected to by the      
    Syrian opposition inside and outside the country. The Syrian opposition  
    claims that the Arab League gave the Syrian regime a chance to bluff     
    international public opinion... Let's see the Arab stance represented by 
    the Arab League. However, let's also think about the league's role in    
    Tunisian, Egyptian, Libyan, Yemeni and Syrian uprisings." (Editorial-    
    "Damascus, hiding true political motives")                               
                                                                             
    Lebanon's Al-Safir: [independent, leftist]: "The Syrian opposition       
    rushed yesterday into announcing that the Arab League peace plan on      
    Syria has failed. Moreover, it called yesterday for moving beyond Arab   
    solutions to the crisis; internationalization... Arabs and the           
    international community are monitoring the situation in Syria from a     
    distance and they don't have the desire or ability to intervene there.   
    The Syrian regime understands this fact very well... For many reasons,   
    the Syrian regime looks more self-confident because it believes that the 
    battle is in its final conclusive stages." (Commentary by Sati           
    Nur-al-Din- "Light at beginning of tunnel")                              
                                                                             
                                  Iran-Nuclear                               
                                                                             
    Qata r's Al-Watan: [privately-owned, pro-govt]: "It seems that the       
    Iranian nuclear crisis is on its way for escalation anew thanks to an    
    extensive Israeli propaganda campaign ahead of an IAEA report that is    
    expected to criticize Iran with harshest possible terms. As per leaked   
    information circulated in Israeli media, Western experts, who have       
    looked into the intelligence bits of the IAEA report, believe that Iran  
    has got the know-how and technology required to build a nuclear bomb     
    within months... It also seems that the IAEA under its new director      
    general Yukiya Amano would be stricter in dealing with Iran compared to  
    its former director general Muhammad al-Barad'i." (Commentary by Mazin   
    Hammad- "IAEA, Iranian bomb")                                            
                                                                             
    UAE's Al-Khalij: [indep,leftist]: "It seems that the most prominent      
    feature in the 'war of nerves' that is currently shaping in the media    
    about the possibility of dealing a unilateral Israeli military blow to   
    Iran in cooperation with the USA or Britain or other allies is that      
    Washington is officially avoiding any talk about this strike. US         
    President Obama just talked about need to put pressure on Tehran... The  
    least Obama needs ahead of next year's presidential polls is to take a   
    decision regarding war on Iran given the chronic economic crisis that    
    his country is facing, which makes it impossible for the USA to cover    
    the expenses of a fourth war." (Commentary by Ma'mun al-Husayni- "Israel 
    wars, exporting crises")                                                 
                                                                             
    Source: Quotes package from BBC Monitoring, in English 08 Nov 11         
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MECai wm                                                     

              A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011
</description>
    <date>2011-11-08 22:21:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4453038_-mesa-syria-ksa-lebanon-quotes-on-the-syria-arab-league.html</permalink>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4523156</id>
    <title>Re: diary for comment - greece and shit - 20111101
</title>
    <description>   A few comments in red...

   On 11/1/11 9:39 PM, Kevin Stech wrote:

     PS - probably will change the ending. i was in a hurry to wrap it up and
     got kind of snappy there. suggestions welcome.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Kevin Stech" &lt;kevin.stech@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 9:25:44 PM
     Subject: diary for comment - greece and shit - 20111101

     I actually kind of strayed from the discussion notes quite a bit, but I
     wanted to capture all the buzz around Draghi and the ECB right now too.
     Have at it.

     On Nov. 1, two interconnected events cast into sharp relief the problems
     and potential solutions Europe currently faces.

      

     Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou announced late Oct. 31 that he
     would be putting the question of the ongoing Greek bailout and austerity
     programs to a referendum in the near future (we could say the referendum
     is expected by January?), dramatically accelerating the unfolding of the
     European debt crisis.  The holding of a referendum is not yet a
     certainty. First there will be a vote of confidence in Papandreou's
     leadership. It is entirely possible that the Greek government will
     collapse before even getting to the point of a referendum (as P holds a
     narrow majority in Parliament and some MP of the governing party
     rejected P's idea).

      

     Additionally, until the date for and text of the referendum is
     finalized, it is difficult to project how Greek voters will respond.
      Polling data shows that while 73% of Greeks favor eurozone membership,
     59% of Greeks oppose the bailout deal reached Oct. 27 in which a large
     tranche of Greek sovereign debt is written down by half, Greek banks are
     recapitalized, and Greece is sequestered from debt markets through the
     remainder of the decade.

      

     The problem for Greeks is the bailout-linked ingress by the so-called
     Troika - the EC, ECB and IMF - into Greek fiscal and economic affairs
     and the painful austerity program it aims to micromanage.  Wildly
     unpopular in the Hellenic Republic for its deflationary effect on the
     economy and the perceived loss of sovereignty alike, the
     bailout/austerity package faces a substantial chance of being voted down
     in a referendum. And since the loss of bailout funds would certainly
     lead to a default and forced exit from the Eurozone, EU leaders now have
     a timeframe within which to operate and a heightened sense of urgency
     driving them.

      

     As the shock of the Greek development sunk in, former head of the Bank
     of Italy Mario Draghi took over the presidency of the ECB from Trichet.
     As a member of the Troika, the ECB has been instrumental in the evolving
     and multifaceted European bailout process. As the apex of the European
     banking system it has protected banks by extending unlimited liquidity
     in the face of both subprime defaults and now sovereign default. It has
     even taken the contraversial step of protecting countries directly by
     purchasing public debt. And it has done all of this, under Trichet's
     relatively conservative management, while keeping a lid on the money
     supply.

      

     As a point of comparison, the Troika's more public bailout mechanism,
     the EFSF, has distributed a roughly comparable amount of bailout funds
     to sovereigns, but only after a hard fought battle over X months (two
     and a half months, it was announced by the EU on July 21 and got the
     final vote in Slovakia on October 13) in the parliaments of the 27 EU
     nations (it was voted by the eurozone 17 members). As the guarantees
     that back the facility are increasingly encumbered by commitments, it is
     anyone's guess where further guarantees or capital might come from or
     how long it might take to get them. Another X month process of drumming
     up sovereign guarantees would almost certainly be overtaken by events.
     Europe doesn't have enough surplus cash or room to add more sovereign
     debt. And reception of the EFSF's scheme to attract capital from foreign
     sovereigns, notably Russia and China, has received a chilly reception
     thus far.

      

     It is therefore no surprise that Draghi enters his new post under much
     scrutiny and anticipation. As a citizen of one of the much maligned
     PIIGS nations there is speculation that his interests may be aligned
     with the high debt states in desperate need of aid.  If nothing else,
     the break with Trichet's relatively staid monetary policy has invited
     this brand of wishful thinking. Regardless, as Europe's debt woes swell,
     the ECB has increasingly been mooted as the only failsafe left to stave
     off complete dissolution of the euro, recently by French President
     Nicolas Sarkozy himself. 

      

     And this brings us back to Greece.  The Troika's economic controls that
     have so inflamed Greece, that have moved the country significantly
     closer to a full and uncontrolled default, are the very measures that
     must be in place for an expanded application of the ECB's monetary
     powers to the crisis.  Without the ability to more directly manage the
     finances of bailout recipients, full ECB assistance becomes an exercise
     in "moral hazard," with states reaping benefits instead of pain for
     their missteps.  The ECB and its implicit backer Germany have thus far
     ruled out expanded central bank aid to states, in part for this reason. 
     A Greek rejection of the bailout/austerity package makes expanded ECB
     support both more necessary and politically unpalatable to Germany.

      

     But as fiscal controls like expanded budgetary surveillance and
     automatic debt penalties take effect for the entire EU in the coming
     months, the ECB's response to the increasingly urgent crisis will only
     come under increased focus. As the Troika attempts to navigate the
     interplay between fiscal governance and bailout packages, a revised
     strategy should begin to emerge. STRATFOR's standing forecast is that
     the EU, as an intrinsically desynchronized union, will break apart. The
     timing of such an event is still unclear, but Europe is about to be
     presented with its first chance to validate us.

      

 --
 Adriano Bosoni - ADP
</description>
    <date>2011-11-02 04:24:38</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4523156_re-diary-for-comment-greece-and-shit-20111101-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>adriano.bosoni@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4568398</id>
    <title>Re: discussion - the eurozone's doozy step
</title>
    <description>   I think that P may be looking for internal legitimacy: the successive
   austerity plans imposed by the EU and the IMF have undermined his
   administration. Strikes and demonstrations, sometimes violent, are the
   order of the day. But the atmosphere is rare: 60% of Greeks see the
   Brussels-imposed measures as "negative" according to a poll published on
   Saturday. But in the same survey, over 70% of people said they want Greece
   to stay in the euro zone.

   On 11/1/11 9:02 AM, Christoph Helbling wrote:

     Does anybody know why Papandreou made this announcement? I can't find
     any explanation. Apparently he didn't even tell his finance minister.
     Papandreou also lost a MP over this issue.

     On 11/1/11 8:30 AM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

       aye - and until we know the actual wording of the referendum we
       shouldn't jump to many conclusions, esp since (as powers has pointed
       out repeatedly) default means that austerity is coming anyway it'd
       just be structured somewhat differently

       that said, a referendum cracks open some possibilities that heretofore
       didn't exist

       On 11/1/11 8:17 AM, Matthew Powers wrote:

         I think we should be careful in assuming the referendum fails. 
         While that certainly seems like the most likely outcome, the Greek
         government has a few months to paint a doomsday scenario of what
         leaving the Euro will mean.  The most recent polling data is a mixed
         bag, with some indicators suggesting the Greeks would vote against a
         referendum, and some indicating they may support it.  The austerity
         and other conditions are very unpleasant, but default and all that
         comes with it is hardly an enticing option. 

         Peter Zeihan wrote:

           The Greeks are going to have a referendum on the austerity/bailout
           program, which is in essence a vote on whether to stay in the euro
           and honor their debts or not. Barring some very creative
           campaigning I find it unlikely it will pass. Greece may be about
           to vote itself out of the eurozone.

           If that's the case, then Europe's got about three months to
           prepare. Yes its a bit doomsday, but actually having a very clear
           deadline like that might be just what the doctor ordered. They
           know exactly how long they've got and exactly what the problem is
           both in scale and scope.

           On 11/1/11 4:25 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

             This will be really exciting. I guess they kind of have to do it
             though. The deal offered to them might be economically
             semi-attractive, it also signs away Greek sovereignty for an
             undetermined amount of years though. If Greece says no, it'll
             probably have to leave the Eurozone, in other words the EU,
             though. And good look on those interest rates after that
             Portugal, Spain and Italy. This is crazy, crazy stuff, it also
             took back decision-making on this affair back to Athens for the
             first time since arguably the first bailout package - either
             temporarily or for good I would say, for better or for worse.

             On 11/01/2011 03:06 AM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

               Well this'll get exciting

               On Oct 31, 2011, at 9:01 PM, Michael Wilson
               &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

                 Some clarity from these articles. The referendum won't be
                 until next year, probably January. But there will be a vote
                 on whether to have the referendum, this week, on Friday, and
                 it will be tied to a confidence vote which he is expected to
                 pass with 3 votes

                 Greek PM gambles on referendum for new debt deal; vote
                 expected early 2012

                  
                 http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/markets/greek-prime-minister-calls-referendum-on-new-debt-deal-no-date-given/2011/10/31/gIQA5NdjZM_story.html

                 By Associated Press, Updated: Monday, October 31, 4:39 PM

                 ATHENS, Greece - Taking a huge political gamble, Greece's
                 prime minister announced Monday that his debt-strapped
                 country will hold a referendum on the new European debt deal
                 reached last week - the first such vote in 37 years.

                 Prime Minister George Papandreou appeared to take many
                 lawmakers by surprise by saying that a hard-bargained
                 agreement that took months for Europe's leaders to hammer
                 out will be put to a public ballot.
                 He gave no date or other details on the proposed referendum,
                 which would be the first in Greece since 1974, when the
                 monarchy was abolished by a landslide vote months after the
                 collapse of a military dictatorship.

                 "This will be the referendum: The citizen will be called
                 upon to say a big `yes' or a big `no' to the new loan
                 arrangement," Papandreou told Socialist members of
                 parliament. "This is a supreme act of democracy and of
                 patriotism for the people to make their own decision ... We
                 have a duty to promote the role and the responsibility of
                 the citizen."
                 The move allows Socialist lawmakers - who have been vilified
                 by an increasingly hostile public during months of strikes,
                 sit-ins and violent protests over rounds of austerity
                 measures - to pass the responsibility for the country's fate
                 to the Greek people themselves.

                 Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos, a constitutional law
                 professor, said the referendum was called after opposition
                 parties repeatedly failed to side with the government in
                 negotiations between Greece and other eurozone members.
                 "Greece is living through a drama, from which it must be
                 released by asking the people to express its will,"
                 Venizelos told parliament.

                 "Each citizen will make his own decision, with
                 responsibility, in a process that will provide a national
                 sense of relief and recovery."

                 Later he told private Antenna television: "It is very clear:
                 The new agreement will be submitted to parliament for
                 approval and then submitted to the judgment of the Greek
                 people ... the Greek people can of course say `no' but must
                 bear in mind the consequences of that decision."
                 Venizelos indicated the referendum would be held early next
                 year, after weeks of complex negotiations to finalize
                 details of the new agreement.

                 The new debt deal aims to seek 50 percent losses for private
                 holders of Greek bonds and provide the troubled eurozone
                 member with EUR100 billion ($140 billion) in additional
                 rescue loans.

                 Papandreou's government has seen its majority reduced to
                 just three seats in parliament and its approval ratings
                 plummet amid harsh austerity measures that are sending the
                 country into a fourth year of recession in 2012.

                 The EU statistics agency Eurostat estimated in a report
                 issued Monday that unemployment in Greece reached 17.6
                 percent in July - even higher than the Greek estimate for
                 that month of 16.5 percent.

                 "This is just the latest twist in the unfolding Greek
                 tragedy," said Sony Kapoor, managing director of Re-Define,
                 a London-based think tank.

                 "With an irresponsible opposition that is promising Greek
                 voters the moon, it is very difficult to see how this
                 referendum could be won under the ongoing gut-wrenching
                 austerity."

                 Greece calls referendum on EU bail-out
                 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/68748490-03f5-11e1-98bc-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1cPlCODKu
                 Last updated: October 31, 2011 10:46 pm
                 By Kerin Hope in Athens, Peter Spiegel in Brussels and Telis
                 Demos in New York
                 Greek Prime Minister George PapandreouGetty

                 Greece's prime minister unexpectedly announced a referendum
                 to approve a second EU bail-out deal for his austerity-hit
                 country, less than a week after it was agreed with
                 international creditors at a European Union summit.

                 George Papandreou made the pledge on Monday night in a
                 speech to lawmakers in his fractious PanHellenic Socialist
                 Movement (Pasok) party but did not set a specific date for
                 the vote.

                 "We have faith in our citizens, we believe in their judgment
                 and therefore in their decision," Mr Papandreou said after
                 rejecting a call for early elections by some socialist
                 politicians. "All the country's political forces should
                 support the [bail-out] agreement. The citizens will do the
                 same once they are fully informed."

                 The premier's move reinforced concerns that Greece's fraught
                 domestic politics are spiralling out of control amid growing
                 popular anger over public sector job cuts and tax increases.
                 Strikes and violent demonstrations have become frequent in
                 Athens and other cities.

                 The referendum also looked likely to cause alarm in
                 Brussels, Paris and Berlin after Mr Papandreou's assurances
                 at Wednesday's summit that Greece was determined to maintain
                 a steady pace of reform.

                 Thanks to some help from the European Commission, we have a
                 bit more clarity on where European leaders will be spending
                 the new EUR130bn in Greek bail-out aid

                 One senior EU official told the Financial Times that Mr
                 Papandreou had appeared reticent about the components of the
                 bail-out package during talks at last week's summit of EU
                 presidents and prime ministers but no one was prepared for
                 the referendum announcement that came "like a bolt out of
                 the blue".
                 "I don't think anyone expected this," the official said.
                 "The calculation has to be this is the only way [Papandreou]
                 believes he can get this through."

                 "With an irresponsible opposition that is promising Greek
                 voters the moon, it is very difficult to see how this
                 referendum could be won," added Sony Kapoor, head of
                 Re-Define, an economic consultancy. "The decision is good
                 for democracy but is likely to make the euro crisis worse by
                 heightening uncertainty in this very fragile environment."

                 The announcement exacerbated declines in the euro and
                 equities, as investors feared that angry Greek voters could
                 derail the painstakingly negotiated plan.

                 The euro fell to a session low of $1.3827, down more than 2
                 per cent on the day and erasing its gains from last week,
                 when the deal was first announced. US stocks accelerated
                 their decline as well, with the S&amp;P 500 index ending the day
                 down 2.5 per cent. It was the index's worst one-day fall in
                 nearly a month, ending what had been stocks' best month
                 since 1991, with a gain of 10.7 per cent, on a sour note.

                 An opinion poll published on Sunday showed that more than 60
                 per cent of Greeks were opposed to the terms of the new
                 bail-out, which would include another 100,000 job losses
                 over the next three years and big cuts in pensions.

                 The vote would probably be held in January, when Greek
                 bondholders were expected to sign up for a voluntary 50 per
                 cent haircut being negotiated with the International
                 Institute of Finance, wrapping up the new bail-out package.
                 One Athens banker said: "This is a worrying decision by the
                 prime minister. It could derail the whole process even
                 before it's properly started."

                 The premier also announced that a vote of confidence in his
                 government would be held this week to endorse the referendum
                 proposal. That vote would follow a three-day debate on
                 Greece's worsening economic and social problems

                 Antonis Samaras, the conservative opposition leader,
                 immediately rejected the proposal, arguing that a referendum
                 was "not the way out".

                 "The only option is elections and, like Ireland and
                 Portugal, to request the obviously necessary changes in the
                 bail-out agreement," he added, referring to proposals by
                 leaders of the two other eurozone member states that are
                 implementing EU-IMF programmes.

                 Mr Papandreou said this year he might call a referendum on
                 reforms of Greece's political system but ruled out a vote on
                 its relationship with the eurozone. His sudden reversal came
                 as a shock, according to party officials. "This is another
                 upset in a situation that is already volatile," one said.

                 Greece to Hold Referendum on New Debt Deal
                 By NIKI KITSANTONIS and RACHEL DONADIO
                 Published: October 31, 2011

                   
                 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/01/world/europe/greece-to-hold-referendum-on-new-debt-deal.html
                 ATHENS - In a surprise move that jolted Europe and put his
                 political future in play, Prime Minister George A.
                 Papandreou announced Monday that his government would hold a
                 referendum on a new aid package for Greece, putting
                 austerity measures - and potentially membership in the euro
                 zone - to a popular vote for the first time.

                 Analysts said the vote on the austerity package did not
                 immediately threaten the comprehensive agreement reached by
                 European leaders last week to shore up the euro zone. More
                 likely, they said, a rejection by the voters would be
                 treated as a vote of no confidence in the government and
                 lead to early elections.

                 But the decision to go ahead with the vote introduces a note
                 of uncertainty in what had seemed to be a done deal. The
                 anxiety stirred up by those fears hammered United States
                 financial markets on Monday, showing once again how the
                 domestic politics of even the smallest members of the
                 European Union can create troubles that not only threaten
                 the currency but reverberate around the globe.

                 Addressing lawmakers on Monday evening, Mr. Papandreou said
                 the decision on whether to adopt the deal, which includes
                 fresh financial assistance, debt relief and deeply unpopular
                 austerity measures, properly belonged to the Greek people.

                 "Let us allow the people to have the last word, let them
                 decide on the country's fate," he said.

                 The move was widely seen as an effort by Mr. Papandreou to
                 shore up his flagging political fortunes and to avoid the
                 instability of early elections. The center-right opposition
                 has opposed the bulk of the austerity program, and the prime
                 minister's popular support has dwindled as Greeks have been
                 hit by a seemingly endless series of tax increases and wage
                 and pension cuts.

                 A referendum would in effect shift responsibility for the
                 nation's painful economic choices from Mr. Papandreou's
                 Socialist Party onto the public.

                 By framing the debate as one of continuing to use the euro
                 or returning to the drachma, the move also appeared to give
                 the Greek government a bit more breathing room - and
                 leverage - in negotiations with Europe over the debt deal,
                 proving that a matter that some in Germany had hoped had
                 been settled last week still had the potential to be
                 reopened.

                 "It's not motivated by the intention of some sort of
                 brinkmanship with Europe, but it may have this sort of
                 positive or negative effect," said George Pagoulatos, a
                 professor of European politics and economy at the Athens
                 University of Economics and Business. "It raises the stakes.
                 It's about, `Will we remain in the euro with a lower public
                 debt or will we lose everything that we will achieve?' "

                 At a time when Mr. Papandreou is under intense political and
                 social pressure, including from members of his own Socialist
                 Party, the move was seen as the last card he could play.

                 It was still unclear how the referendum question would be
                 posed, but Mr. Papandreou said the vote would be on whether
                 Greeks supported the debt deal and the program of austerity
                 measures in exchange for foreign aid.

                 The stakes are extremely high. A no vote would not only be
                 likely to bring down the Greek government, it could break
                 the deal between Greece and its so-called troika of foreign
                 lenders - the European Union, European Central Bank and
                 International Monetary Fund - which have demanded structural
                 changes and austerity measures in exchange for aid.

                 Without the aid, Greece would not be able to meet its
                 expenses and would default on its debt, and send shockwaves
                 through the euro zone and the world economy.

                 Mr. Papandreou also said that he would seek a parliamentary
                 vote of confidence in his administration, just four months
                 after winning a similar vote before pushing an earlier batch
                 of austerity measures into law. The vote of confidence is
                 expected to be held on Friday evening, and Mr. Papandreou is
                 expected to squeak by with his narrow three-vote majority in
                 Parliament.
                 Government officials said the referendum would probably be
                 held in January, essentially buying the government time
                 while the details of the debt deal are hammered out.

                 Addressing lawmakers on Monday evening, Finance Minister
                 Evangelos Venizelos raised the stakes further by framing the
                 debate as one of Greece staying in the euro zone - the group
                 of 17 European Union countries that use the euro. "It's for
                 the people to decide to stay in Europe or go back to the
                 drachma," he said.

                 Takis Michas, a political analyst and the project director
                 of Forum for Greece, an Athens research institute, said
                 posing the question this way was "a master stroke on behalf
                 of Papandreou in the sense it is forcing the various parties
                 to take a very responsible position."

                 "If he succeeds in framing the issue as being one of
                 remaining in the euro zone, obviously he is going to get a
                 huge yes," Mr. Michas added. "But it depends on whether he
                 can frame the question in those terms."

                 Under the Greek Constitution, the government must propose
                 the language of the referendum, which would need to be
                 approved by Parliament and then by the president.

                 Some analysts said the referendum was an invitation for
                 instability. "People are very discontented with him
                 personally and toward his economic policy, and in these
                 kinds of circumstances when the debate is very passionate
                 and things are tense, holding a referendum could be risky,"
                 said Alexis Papahelas, the editor of the center-right daily
                 Kathimerini.

                 "If the referendum fails, obviously everything will be in
                 disarray," he added. "Probably we will go to elections, but
                 we have a very big chance that the country would go into a
                 disorderly default."

                 Last Thursday, after European leaders and the International
                 Monetary Fund had finally reached an accord, Mr. Papandreou
                 had hailed "a new day for Europe and for Greece." But the
                 deal has proved broadly unpopular among Greeks, who do not
                 understand how it will translate into immediate relief.

                 Papandreou Calls on Greeks to Back EU Debt Accord in
                 Referendum
                 October 31, 2011, 9:05 PM EDT

                 http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-31/papandreou-calls-on-greeks-to-back-eu-debt-accord-in-referendum.html

                 Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou
                 said voters will give him support to forge ahead with
                 economic reforms as he pledged a referendum on the European
                 Union's latest accord on the nation's financing.

                 "For the new agreement, we must go to a referendum for
                 Greeks to decide," Papandreou told lawmakers of his ruling
                 socialist Pasok party in statements carried live yesterday
                 from Athens on state-run Vouli TV. "Democracy is alive and
                 well and Greeks are being called to rise to a national duty
                 beyond the regular electoral processes."

                 Papandreou's gambit risks pushing the country into default
                 if rejected by voters, and raises the ante with dissidents
                 inside his own party. Papandreou's popularity has plunged
                 after a raft of austerity measures cut pensions and wages,
                 increased taxes and sparked a wave of social unrest. An
                 opinion poll published Oct. 29 showed most Greeks believe
                 the accord on a new bailout package and a debt writedown is
                 negative.

                 "Papandreou could lose the referendum, which means that new
                 elections would have to be called," Thomas Costerg, European
                 economist at Standard Chartered Bank in London, said in an
                 e-mail. "Heightened Greek uncertainty could propagate to
                 other fragile euro-area countries, in particular Italy."

                 Most of the 1,009 people surveyed on Oct. 27, the day the
                 agreement was announced, said the accord should be put to a
                 referendum, according to the results of the Kapa Research SA
                 poll, published in To Vima newspaper. Forty-six percent said
                 they'd oppose the plan at such a referendum. In the same
                 poll, more than seven in 10 favored Greece remaining in the
                 euro.

                 Confidence Vote

                 Papandreou also told lawmakers he'll seek a vote of
                 confidence in parliament. The referendum will likely be held
                 after details of the EU accord are wound up, Papandreou
                 said. The vote of confidence will begin tomorrow and
                 conclude late on Nov. 4, according to statements yesterday
                 by House Speaker Filipos Petsalnikos.

                 EU leaders carved out a second aid package for Greece at a
                 summit in Brussels lasting into the early hours of Oct. 27,
                 after Papandreou scraped together parliamentary approval for
                 the second round of austerity measures in four months.
                 Greece will receive 130 billion euros ($180 billion) in
                 public funds plus a 50 percent writedown on Greek debt,
                 following a fully taxpayer- funded package of 110 billion
                 euros extended in May 2010.

                 Venizelos's View

                 "I can no longer look at polls where the majority is against
                 the agreement, the majority is against the program, but a
                 majority is also in favor of staying in the euro," Finance
                 Minister Evangelos Venizelos said on Antenna TV after
                 Papandreou announced his decision. A "no" vote at the
                 referendum would lead to "developments" that the government
                 would assess, Venizelos said.

                 Papandreou, whose term ends in 2013, is seeking renewed
                 support to push through measures including job cuts to turn
                 around an economy that is set to shrink 5.5 percent this
                 year. The program involves new taxes and cuts in spending to
                 plug the EU's second-biggest budget gap.

                 The state budget deficit widened to 19.2 billion euros in
                 the January to end-September period from 16.7 billion euros
                 a year earlier, according to an e-mailed statement from the
                 Athens-based Finance Ministry yesterday.

                 Opposition parties repeated their call for elections.
                 Papandreou's plans are "reckless" and put Greece's EU
                 membership at risk, lead opposition New Democracy party
                 spokesman Yiannis Michelakis said.

                 `Dangerous'

                 Papandreou "has tossed Greece's future in Europe in the air
                 like a coin," Michelakis said in an e-mailed statement from
                 ND's Athens offices yesterday. "He is dangerous and must go.
                 There is a solution: elections now. It's the safest
                 `referendum.'"

                 Papandreou now has just a three-seat majority in parliament
                 and won approval for his latest austerity package amid
                 protests that left one person dead. The budget measures
                 prompted a near- rebellion in Papandreou's party and
                 violence in the streets.

                 The New Democracy party, led by Antonis Samaras, would win
                 22 percent of the vote in elections, with Papandreou's Pasok
                 party receiving 14.7 percent, and neither getting enough to
                 form a majority in Parliament, according to the Kapa poll.
                 More than 26 percent of voters said they were undecided on
                 who to back. The margin of error is 3.09 percentage points.

                 Separately, the International Swaps and Derivatives
                 Association said that the euro-area proposals for Greek
                 bonds appear to involve "a voluntary exchange that would not
                 be binding on all holders," according to an e-mailed
                 statement.

                 "As such, it does not appear to be likely that the euro zone
                 proposal will trigger payments under existing CDS
                 contracts," the statement said. "However, whether or not it
                 does so will be decided by the Determinations Committee on
                 the basis of specific facts, if a request is made to them."

                 The ISDA statement late yesterday follows a review of
                 whether the proposal would constitute a "credit event" for
                 holders of credit-default swaps linked to the securities.

                 --With assistance from Jennifer Ryan in London and Antonis
                 Galanopoulos in Athens. Editors: Digby Lidstone, Craig
                 Stirling, Kevin Costelloe

                 To contact the reporters responsible for this story: Maria
                 Petrakis in Athens at mpetrakis@bloomberg.net; Natalie Weeks
                 in Athens at nweeks2@bloomberg.net; Marcus Bensasson in
                 Athens at mbensasson@bloomberg.net

                 To contact the editor responsible for this story: Tim
                 Quinson at tquinson@bloomberg.net

                 Greek PM calls referendum on new EU aid deal
                 http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/31/us-greece-referendum-idUSTRE79U5PQ20111031
                 By Dina Kyriakidou and Harry Papachristou

                 ATHENS | Mon Oct 31, 2011 6:50pm EDT

                 (Reuters) - Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou called an
                 unexpected referendum on Monday on the EU bailout deal for
                 his debt-ridden country, a move that could necessitate a
                 snap election if a public angry with swinging austerity
                 measures rejects the deal.

                 Pressured by his own lawmakers to share the heavy political
                 burden of belt-tightening with other parties, Papandreou
                 said he needed wider political support for the fiscal
                 measures and structural reforms required by international
                 lenders.

                 "We trust citizens, we believe in their judgment, we believe
                 in their decision," he told ruling Socialist party deputies.
                 "In a few weeks the (EU) agreement will be a new loan
                 contract... we must spell out if we are accepting it or if
                 we are rejecting it."

                 Analysts said holding a referendum was a baffling decision,
                 given that the latest survey showed a majority of Greeks
                 taking a negative view of the bailout deal.

                 Opposition parties reacted angrily, accusing Papandreou of
                 looking for a way out for his embattled party by dragging
                 Greece, which has seen violent clashes between protesters
                 and riot police, through a lengthy period of political
                 instability.

                 The euro extended losses against the dollar after the
                 announcement, tumbling more than 2 percent to a session low.

                 Papandreou, grappling with Greece's worst financial crisis
                 in 40 years, had discussed holding a referendum but many
                 people were shocked at the prospect of weary, disgruntled
                 citizens being asked to decide whether to accept or reject
                 the bailout.

                 "Mr. Papandreou is dangerous, he tosses Greece's EU
                 membership like a coin in the air," said conservative
                 opposition New Democracy party spokesman Yannis Michelakis.
                 "He cannot govern and instead of withdrawing honorably, he
                 dynamites everything."

                 New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras will visit President
                 Karolos Papoulias on Tuesday to discuss developments and
                 push for snap elections, party officials said.

                 Weekend polls showed most Greeks took a negative view of the
                 decision by euro zone leaders last week to hand
                 cashed-strapped Athens a second, 130-billion-euro bailout
                 and a 50-percent write-down on its enormous debt to make it
                 sustainable.

                 "I never expected Papandreou to take such a dangerous and
                 frivolous decision," said Dora Bakoyanni, former foreign
                 minister and leader of the small center-right Democratic
                 Alliance party. "Tomorrow all the international media will
                 say that Greece itself is putting the EU deal at risk."

                 Germany issued a statement saying the EU was working hard to
                 put the second Greek aid package in place by the end of the
                 year and had no comment on the referendum. EU leaders
                 hammered out the deal last week, fearing the Greek debt
                 crisis would speed to other euro zone countries and shake
                 global markets.

                 "If there was to be a referendum, we may reasonably conclude
                 that they may not accept the austerity measures. We may
                 conclude that it will bring the pack of cards tumbling
                 down," said Howard Wheeldon, senior strategist at BGC
                 Partners in London.

                 Papandreou also said he would ask for a vote of confidence
                 to secure support for his policy for the rest of his
                 four-year term, which expires in 2013.

                 Analysts said he was likely to win that, despite dissent
                 among his parliamentary team. He was forced to expel a
                 senior party member for voting against part of his latest
                 austerity package and others warned him it was the last time
                 they would vote for measures they did not believe in.

                 Parliament officials said the confidence debate would begin
                 on Wednesday, with a vote on Thursday or Friday.

                 LEGALITY QUESTIONED

                 Papandreou said the referendum would ask Greeks whether or
                 not they agreed to the deal and would take place in a few
                 weeks. Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told Greek TV it
                 would probably be held early next year.

                 But parliamentarians questioned its legality under the
                 constitution, which does not allow referendums on economic
                 issues, only on matters of great national importance.

                 The last time Greeks held a referendum was in December 1974,
                 when they voted to abolish the monarchy shortly after the
                 collapse of a military dictatorship.

                 "It's debatable whether the constitution allows such a
                 referendum," said Fotis Kouvelis, leader of the small
                 Democratic Left party. "The country must go to early
                 elections. Given the situation, it's the most honorable
                 solution."

                 For a referendum result to be binding, there must be a
                 minimum 40 percent turnout on issues of "crucial national
                 importance" and 50 percent on a law that has already been
                 voted on in parliament and "regulates a serious social
                 issue," according to legislation enacted earlier this year.
                 It was not clear which option the government would favor.

                 "If the referendum answer is no, Papandreou has to resign,"
                 said Costas Panagopoulos, an analyst at polling firm Alco.

                 "In the meantime what will happen with the decisions the EU
                 took last week? I cannot understand what the prime minister
                 wants to do. It could be the only way he has to leave the
                 government, to share responsibility."

                 Nearly 60 percent of Greeks view Thursday's EU summit
                 agreement on the new bailout package as negative or probably
                 negative, a survey showed on Saturday.

                 Several lawmakers have defected from Papandreou's Socialist
                 party over the packages of austerity measures enacted to
                 qualify for bailout payments under last year's aid
                 agreement, and the party trails in opinion polls.

                 New Democracy is rising fast in opinion polls, but no party
                 would win outright if polls were held now, leading to
                 coalition governments or repeated elections.

                 "The prime minister is obviously stuck in a dead end and he
                 is leading the country down a very dangerous slope," said
                 far right LAOS party MP Makis Voridis.

                 Greek Vote Threatens Bailout
                 Premier Calls for Surprise Referendum Days After European
                 Leaders OK Aid Deal

                     EUROPE NEWS
                     NOVEMBER 1, 2011
                  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204394804577010091283798750.html
                 By ALKMAN GRANITSAS, MARCUS WALKER and COSTAS PARIS

                 ATHENS-Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou stunned Europe
                 by announcing a referendum on his country's latest bailout-a
                 high-stakes gamble that could undermine the international
                 effort to preserve the euro.

                 A "yes" vote in the referendum could deflate the massive
                 street protests and strikes that threaten to paralyze Greece
                 as it tries to enact a brutal austerity program to earn
                 rescue loans from the euro zone and the International
                 Monetary Fund.

                 A "no" vote, however, could bring down the government and
                 cut off international funding for Greece, leaving the
                 country facing a financial meltdown. The government expects
                 to hold the referendum in January.

                 Some Greek government officials believe a defeat in the
                 referendum could propel their country out of the euro zone.
                 Many European policy makers fear that a messy Greek default
                 could spark a financial-market panic that would particularly
                 affect Italy, a major European economy that's already
                 struggling to retain investors' trust.

                 Mr. Papandreou's dramatic announcement, which he delivered
                 late Monday in a speech to lawmakers, renders the outcome of
                 Europe's debt crisis more uncertain than ever. It comes less
                 than a week after euro-zone leaders agreed on a
                 "comprehensive package" of measures to keep Greece afloat,
                 reassure financial markets and stabilize the region. That
                 agreement was supposed to ensure that Athens avoids a
                 unilateral debt default, restructures its debts in
                 cooperation with bondholders, and cuts its budget deficit
                 further in return for a EUR130 billion ($180 billion)
                 bailout.

                 With the fate of the deal in the lap of Greek voters, the
                 euro crisis is likely to dominate this week's summit of the
                 Group of 20 leading global economies in Cannes, France. For
                 months, the U.S. government has been pressing Europe to
                 resolve the two-year-old Greek debt crisis, which is
                 undermining investor confidence in ever-growing swaths of
                 the euro currency zone. The lingering uncertainty, in turn,
                 has hurt confidence in global financial markets, and the
                 looming referendum will only accentuate that.

                 The announcement in Athens roiled financial markets late
                 Monday, pushing the euro down 2.1% against the dollar to
                 $1.3859, the European currency's biggest one-day slide in
                 six months. Already-weak U.S. stocks sank further into the
                 red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its worst
                 daily decline in a month, falling 276.10 points, or 2.26%,
                 to 11955.01. "Maybe the [Greek bailout] deal is in
                 jeopardy," said Stephen Leuer, a floor trader at X-FA
                 trading. "Any sort of doubt is definitely going to set us
                 back," he said, adding that U.S. markets are "very
                 sensitive" to news from Europe at present.

                 Greece's embattled leader decided to go for a referendum as
                 a way of shoring up support for the drastic government
                 spending cuts and tax hikes that his country's parlous
                 finances have forced him to enact, Greek officials say.

                 Mr. Papandreou, who inherited a fiscal mess after winning
                 election in 2009 as head of a Socialist administration, has
                 had to slash Greeks' cherished welfare entitlements to
                 please the country's international creditors, in the face of
                 opposition from labor unions and parts of his own party.

                 Prime Minister George Papandreou announces a referendum on a
                 debt deal.

                 The mild-mannered, U.S.-born premier floated the idea of a
                 referendum earlier this year as public hostility to
                 austerity mounted, but he backed off amid fears that such a
                 move would be destabilizing for Greece and for Europe.

                 In recent weeks, however, public and parliamentary patience
                 with austerity and an ever-deepening recession has stretched
                 thin, weakening Mr. Papandreou's authority.

                 The government needs a stronger democratic mandate to
                 implement last week's bailout agreement with Europe and the
                 IMF, Mr. Papandreou told a stunned audience of Socialist
                 lawmakers on Monday. For that, he said, "we need to go to a
                 referendum."

                 The question put to voters will be simple, he said: "Do we
                 want to adopt the new agreement? Or do we want to reject
                 it?" The popular verdict would be binding, he added. "If the
                 Greek people do not want it to be implemented, very simply
                 it won't be implemented."

                 What would happen next is anything but clear. A binding
                 voter rejection of Europe's terms for a bailout would leave
                 euro-zone leaders such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel
                 and French President Nicolas Sarkozy with a bitter choice.
                 Either they let Greece default on its EUR355 billion of
                 public debt, risking panic throughout Europe's
                 government-bond markets and banking sectors; or they cave in
                 and offer Greece more generous bailout terms.

                 Relaxing Greece's bailout terms would anger voters in
                 Germany and other countries who are already resentful of
                 having to subsidize Greece, a country that is widely viewed
                 in Europe as having lived beyond its means for years. It
                 could also prompt other recipients of rescue loans-Ireland
                 and Portugal-to demand similarly generous treatment. That,
                 in turn, would test both the political tolerance and the
                 financial wherewithal of Europe's core economies to support
                 weaker euro nations.

                 A Greek referendum on its bailout, for the first time in the
                 two-year crisis, would put what many Greeks view as
                 draconian spending cuts demanded by Athens' international
                 creditors to a democratic test. The result of the vote could
                 reverberate around the euro zone, putting pressure on
                 governments in other European countries that are enacting
                 austerity measures to stem the debt crisis to ask for their
                 voters' consent.

                 Opinion polls suggest Mr. Papandreou faces a struggle to
                 convince an increasingly angry electorate. A survey
                 published at the weekend showed that 58.9% of Greeks oppose
                 last week's European deal; there are fears that the planned
                 debt restructuring will bring further pain while yielding
                 few benefits for the country.

                 The poll, the first since last week's bailout deal was
                 struck, showed that some 54.2% of Greeks thought a national
                 referendum should be called to approve the new aid deal,
                 while only 40% thought Parliament should decide.

                 However, Mr. Papandreou is betting that voters may approve
                 the bailout package if they are forced to confront the
                 alternative of national bankruptcy and a possible exit from
                 the euro.

                 Some Greek officials say the referendum question could be
                 worded in such a way that voters see it as a matter of
                 Greece's continued euro membership. The recent opinion poll
                 showed 72.5% of Greeks want to stay in the euro zone. "The
                 actual meaning of the referendum is a choice between the
                 euro and the drachma," the traditional Greek currency, a
                 senior Socialist official said.

                 In a bid to shore up flagging support within his own party,
                 Mr. Papandreou also called for a fresh vote of confidence in
                 his government-just months after narrowly winning such a
                 vote in June.

                 On 10/31/11 2:22 PM, Michael Wilson wrote:

                   vote of confidence and the referendum are two separate
                   things, not attached. He has already employed the vote of
                   confidence before and presumably could get it again. This
                   is why it was so important last week or so when the MP
                   resigned both party and seat so PASOK could put someone in
                   who was indebted to the party

                   The referendum is what im not sure he could win. Also will
                   be interesting to see which comes first

                   On 10/31/11 2:15 PM, Kristen Cooper wrote:

                     Well, if it has a confidence vote attached to it and
                     fails, Papandreou wouldn't necessarily be the one the EU
                     is negotiating with. There are a couple different
                     aspects here, but I don't think this was a move to
                     negotiate a better deal with the EU. This is as about as
                     good as deal as they could possibly hope for.

                     I think with a referendum, he's essentially calling the
                     public out - "Look, this is the deal I got. Take it or
                     leave it." If its approved, then you undermine the
                     legitimacy of the people striking and protesting over
                     the deal. If if it fails - along with an attached
                     confidence vote - fails, then that means somebody else
                     has to come up with a concrete alternative to the plan -
                     which no one has credibly come forth with yet.

                     On 10/31/11 2:45 PM, Michael Wilson wrote:

                       Remember that in September there were reports
                       (subsequently denied) that they would hold a
                       referendum on the Euro. This is just a referendum on
                       the new EU aid deal, but I imagine will serve a
                       similar political role

                       If it gets approved he has legitimacy. If it doesnt he
                       can better negotiate with EU I guess. Scary to think
                       what happens if its not approved...

                       Greece says not considering referendum on euro

                        http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/20/greece-referendum-idUSA8E7JO01720110920

                       ATHENS, Sept 20 | Tue Sep 20, 2011 3:41am EDT

                       (Reuters) - Greece denied a report on Tuesday that it
                       was considering holding a referendum on the country's
                       membership in the euro zone.

                       Kathimerini daily wrote on Tuesday, citing unnamed
                       sources, that Prime Minister George Papandreou was
                       considering calling for a referendum on whether Greece
                       should continue to tackle its debt crisis within the
                       euro zone or by exiting the single currency.

                       The government has long said it was planning a
                       referendum on political reforms but has repeatedly
                       denied that it would concern the country's euro
                       membership.

                       Asked if the referendum would be about staying in the
                       euro zone, deputy government spokesman Angelos Tolkas
                       said: "No. We haven't discussed such an issue,
                       definitely not."

                       He said the government had put to parliament on Monday
                       a bill aimed at allowing the country to hold referenda
                       but without specifying any issue.

                       "Yesterday we tabled a bill about referenda ... but we
                       have not discussed anything more than holding a
                       referendum." (Reporting by Angeliki Koutantou; writing
                       by Ingrid Melander; editing by Michael Winfrey)

                       Greece may hold referendum on euro zone membership:
                       report

                          
                       http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/20/us-greece-referendum-idUSTRE78J07W20110920
                       Mon Sep 19, 2011 8:57pm EDT

                       (Reuters) - Greece may hold a voter referendum on euro
                       zone membership as a way to strengthen the
                       government's hand in dealing with the debt crisis
                       within the euro zone or by exiting the single
                       currency, the Kathimerini English language newspaper
                       reported on its website on Tuesday.

                       Prime Minister George Papandreou is considering
                       calling for the referendum as pressure has mounted
                       from all sides with Greece's foreign creditors pushing
                       for quicker budget cuts, while large-scale citizen
                       street protests against austerity are held almost
                       daily, the newspaper said, citing unnamed sources.

                       A bill to be submitted in parliament, paving the way
                       for a referendum, is to be discussed in the coming
                       days, the newspaper added.

                       For the newspaper website, see: www.ekathimerini.com

                       Papandreou had earlier resisted any referendum, but
                       now thinks such a vote could bring a fresh mandate for
                       his Socialist government to continue with an austerity
                       drive backed by Greece's international lenders, the
                       newspaper said.

                       The cabinet is reportedly split, with several
                       ministers calling for drastic action including early
                       elections at an emergency meeting on Sunday, the
                       newspaper said, while others want to avoid a
                       referendum or new polls.

                       (Writing by Ed Layne in Singapore; Editing by Yoko
                       Nishikawa)

                       On 10/31/11 1:34 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                         Greece to hold referendum on new debt deal

                         (AP) - 10 minutes ago
                         http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jKv9sosbqxb_nvPl5iOA50fQfTkQ?docId=630021ce8f5d4b55b858d29d616e23c4
                         ATHENS, Greece (AP) - Greek Prime Minister George
                         Papandreou says his country will hold a referendum
                         on a new European debt deal reached last week.

                         Papandreou gave no date on other details of proposed
                         referendum on the deal that aims to seek 50 percent
                         losses for private holders of Greek bonds and
                         provide the troubled eurozone member with euro100
                         billion ($140 billion) in additional rescue loans.

                         Papandreou, addressing Socialist members of
                         parliament Monday, also said he would seek a vote of
                         confidence in parliament.

                         His Socialist government has seen its majority
                         reduced to just three seats in parliament and its
                         approval ratings plummet amid harsh austerity
                         measures that are likely to send the country into a
                         fourth year of recession in 2012.

                         Papandreou calls for referendum in Greece
                         Mon, Oct 31 2011, 18:18 GMT | FXstreet.com
                         http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=5ede6cce-fa68-4d8a-a580-14808203a3ad

                         FXstreet.com (Cordoba) - The Prime Minister of
                         Greece, George Papandreou called for a referendum to
                         ask whether to accept the new bailout or not. He
                         said he will call for a vote of confidence and
                         rejected elections.

                         It was reported also that the PM mentioned that the
                         government may need to nationalize some banks in
                         order to recapitalized them. After a period of time
                         the banks would be privatized.

                         Papandreou Says EU Decisions Will Relieve Greece of
                         Debt Burden
                         October 31, 2011, 1:43 PM EDT
                         http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-31/papandreou-says-eu-decisions-will-relieve-greece-of-debt-burden.html

                         Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Greek Prime Minister George
                         Papandreou said the country had secured a "historic
                         decision" at last week's summit of European Union
                         leaders that will allow Greece to "look to our
                         future" with less uncertainty.

                         "The EU summit decisions open up a new era for
                         Europe and a new era for Greece," Papandreou said in
                         comments to ruling party lawmakers in Athens
                         televised on state-run Vouli TV today. The decisions
                         taken by EU leaders early on Oct. 27 will reduce
                         Greece's debt by about 100 billion euros, Papandreou
                         said.

                         To contact the reporter on this story: Marcus
                         Bensasson in Athens at mbensasson@bloomberg.net

                         Papandreou Says Greek Elections to be Held in 2013
                         as Scheduled
                         October 31, 2011, 1:55 PM EDT
                         http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-31/papandreou-says-greek-elections-to-be-held-in-2013-as-scheduled.html

                         Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Greek Prime Minister George
                         Papandreou said his government faced a challenge to
                         exploit the window of opportunity provided by the
                         decisions taken last week by European Union leaders
                         on a second financing package for the country.

                         Papandreou said the priority was to "lock in" the
                         decisions of the summit. He said elections would be
                         held as scheduled in 2013. He spoke in Athens in
                         comments televised live on state-run Vouli TV.

                         On 10/31/11 1:22 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                           Greece to call referendum on new EU aid deal

                           http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/31/us-greece-referendum-idUSTRE79U5PQ20111031

                           ATHENS | Mon Oct 31, 2011 2:09pm EDT
                           (Reuters) - The Greek government will hold a
                           referendum on a new EU aid package, calling on
                           voters to say whether they want to adopt it or
                           not, Prime Minister George Papandreou said on
                           Monday.

                           "We trust citizens, we believe in their judgment,
                           we believe in their decision," he told ruling
                           socialist party lawmakers.

                           Nearly 60 percent of Greeks view Thursday's EU
                           summit agreement on a new 130 billion euro bailout
                           package as negative or probably negative, a survey
                           showed on Saturday.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
                  

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
                

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com
              

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com
          

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com
        

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +216 22 73 23 19
 www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 Matthew Powers
 Senior Researcher
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: 512-744-4300 | M: 817-975-1037
 www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 Christoph Helbling
 ADP
 STRATFOR

 --
 Adriano Bosoni - ADP
</description>
    <date>2011-11-01 15:49:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4568398_re-discussion-the-eurozone-s-doozy-step-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>adriano.bosoni@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
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    <id>4599511</id>
    <title>G3/S3* - IRAN/US/ISRAEL/SYRIA - Iran officials accuses USA,	Israel
	of interfering in Syria
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-09-13 09:40:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4599511_g3-s3-iran-us-israel-syria-iran-officials-accuses-usa-israel.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4602368</id>
    <title>G3/S3* - IRAN/US/ISRAEL/SYRIA - Iran officials accuses USA,	Israel
	of interfering in Syria
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-09-13 09:40:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4602368_g3-s3-iran-us-israel-syria-iran-officials-accuses-usa-israel.html</permalink>
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      <tag><name>mailto:alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4620686</id>
    <title>Plano =?ISO-8859-1?Q?Estrat=E9gico_de_Fronteiras_=28PEF=29?=
 =?ISO-8859-1?Q?_-__Strategic_Plan_for_Borders?=
</title>
    <description>   Hi Karen, here is a more complete version of the PEF and Operations Agata
   1 and 3.
   I still have to add info on Agata 2, the other operations Cadeado and
   Atalaia, and the response of neighboring countries to the operations.
   Please, let me know if you find something else is missing.

   Link: themeData

      Plano Estrategico de Fronteiras (PEF) -  Strategic Plan for Borders

    

   Stated intention from the Dilma administration

   (R)   President Dilma launched the PEF in June of 2011.

   (R)   Its operations should cover more than 2,3 million square feet, or
   27% of the entire Brazilian territory.

   (R)   There are two main axes of the plan. The first is the strengthening
   of Operation Sentinela, successfully held by the Ministry of Justice since
   2010. Operation Sentinela is a continuing operation and focuses on
   "intelligence actions". Forces already involved in Sentinela - Federal
   Police, Federal Highway Police and National Security Force - will have the
   support of the Armed Forces.

   (R)   The second axis is Operation Agata. Unlike Sentinela, Agata is an ad
   hoc and temporary operation. It is based on increasing the presence and
   impact of forces involved in the border zone. However, Agata 3 has no date
   to end. Operations involve the following forces: Policia Federal (Federal
   Police), Rodoviaria Federal (Federal Higway Police) and Forc,a Nacional de
   Seguranc,a (National Security Force), with logistical support from Armed
   Forces.

   (R)   The PEF main goal is to fight organized crime and arms trafficking
   along Brazilian land borders, accounting for 16.8 thousand kilometers (a
   little more than 10,000 miles).

   (R)   The Brazilian border strip extends itself 150 kilometers within the
   Brazilian national territory, starting at the dividing line with the ten
   neighboring countries, comprising 11 states,  710 municipalities and a
   population of 10.9 million people.

   (R)   PEF has an initial budget of R$ 200 million. However, a media report
   published on Nov. 23 says that the Brazilian vice-president Michel Temer
   (in charge of PEF execution) stated that the investments are postponed to
   2012, given current "economic conditions". There was a budget cut of R$
   1,5 billion (not clear if the cut affected the national budget or the
   Ministry of Justice budget).

   (R)   Most common crimes in bordering regions: drugs, arms and people
   trafficking; tax and financial crimes such as illegal export of vehicles;
   environmental crimes and homicides.

   (R)   The PEF entails doubling the number of federal police presence in
   the border zone; improvement of Policia Federal facilities; and additional
   payment to officers deployed along the border, something to try to keep
   agents in border posts, some in inhospitable areas, with active gangs,
   traffickers and smugglers, and outbreaks of diseases.

   (R)   The PEF also foresees investments in new technologies, such as
   unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Brazil is expected to have 14 UAVs until
   2014 but only one has been in use up to November 2011, already counting a
   3 month delay.

   (R)   Number of border posts to be increased from 21 to 49.

   (R)   The PEF establishes the creation of  the Center for Joint Operations
   (Centro de Operac,oes Conjuntas, COC), where commanders of Agata and
   Sentinela participating forces will gather to plan and follow-up
   undertaken actions.

   (R)   According to the Federal Highway Police, the inspection of vehicles,
   documentation, and passengers' belongings is crucial due to the big
   incidence of stolen vehicles that are brought to Bolivia to be exchanged
   for drugs.

    

    

   Breakdown of operations 1,2 and 3 of Agata: Their duration, their scope,
   the resources deployed, ongoing missions, major successes/failures.

    

   Agata 1 - Started on August 5, 2011, ran for a month (Northern Region of
   Brazil), Rainforest region

   (R)   Brazilian Air Force deployed 35 aircrafts

   (R)   3,500 military in the region where Tabatinga and Sao Gabriel da
   Cachoeira municipalities are located, in the Brazilian border with
   Colombia.

   (R)   Operation aimed to intensify narcotrafficking combat, arms smuggling
   and diversion of arms and ammunition shipments, the illegal extraction of
   minerals and timber, wild animals trafficking, biopiracy, environmental
   crimes.

   (R)   The operation also serves to improve the coordination of the
   planning and execution of military and police operations, the
   intensification of the Brazilian State's presence in the region and
   increase support to the population residing in the border strip.

   (R)   In addition to these goals, the operation also seeks cooperation
   with neighbouring countries in the fight against illicit cross-border
   incidents.

   (R)    Joint operation involving the Brazilian Armed Forces, Federal
   Police, Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources
   (Instituto Brasileiro de Meio Ambiente e dos Recursos Naturais Renovaveis
   - IBAMA), Federal Tax Service of Brazil (Secretaria da Receita Federal -
   SRF), Rainforest Protection System (Sistema de Protec,ao da Amazonia
   -SIPAM), National Security Force (Forc,a Nacional de Seguranc,a),
   Brazilian Agency of Intelligence (Agencia Brasileira de Inteligencia -
   ABIN), and state level law enforcement in the state of Amazonas.

   (R)   For this operation, the Brazilian Ministry of Defence has made
   contact with Colombian authorities in order to allow the participation of
   the Colombian armed forces in Agata operation. Therefore, there was an
   expectation that the Colombian Forces would conduct operations in
   Colombian territory at the same time Brazilian forces would operate in
   Brazilian soil. This simultaneous actions would be bilaterally
   coordinated. (I have to check if this happened ot not).

   (R)   Planned actions: ban irregular landing tracks, docks clandestine and
   illegal mining, marine patrol and inspection in the rivers, blocking and
   control of roads, ostensive patrolling with law enforcement, control of
   aviation fuel at airports and aerodromes in the area of
   &amp;#8203;&amp;#8203;operations, civic and social actions in poor communities,
   specialized recognition of border, people pat-down, ships, aircraft and
   facilities inspections, operation of search and seizure, and interception
   of suspicious aircrafts.

   (R)   A Remotely Piloted Aircraft (ARP), model Hermes 450, participates in
   the operation. This is the first time thatan ARP is used in a real
   scenario, performing recoinassance missions along the border between
   Brazil and Colombia.

   (R)   Approximately 450 kilos of pirarucu (type of fish) were also seized,
   besides macaws and parrots seized with no documentation.

   (R)   Joshua Lima de Alencar, called Joca, accused of having killed in
   2011, Marcos Andre dos Santos Celane, 17, son of Marcelo Celane, former
   Tefe municipal legislator (523 kilometers from Manaus), was arrested
   during the inspection of Oliveira V vessel, at the time of the
   municipality of Alvaraes (531 kilometers of Manaus). The individual was
   fugitive from Justice.

    

    

   Agata 1 - results fron Aug 4 to Aug 17

    

   (R)   Two illegal mineral extraction sites were shut down in the Amazonia.
   One of them was located in the region of Serra dos Porcos, in Sao Gabriel
   da Cachoeira, 300 meters from the Colombian border. Four people were
   arrested in the operation and several makeshift shelters where garimpeiros
   (miners) lived were destroyed. The second mining site destroyed was
   located in the Serra dos Tucanos, North of Tabatinga and Villa Bitencourt.

   (R)   Three clandestine airstrips were destroyed. Two were bombed by four
   jets A-29 near the city of Sao Gabriel da Cachoeira, and the third one was
   destroyed in Villa Bittencourt, in the border with Colombia.

   (R)   A dump was notified by Ibama in Sao Gabriel da Cachoeira. To perform
   the operation, Ibama officials counted with military protection.

   (R)    1,096 people, 765 motorcycles and 159 cars were inspected during
   checkpoints in the border with Colombia. 3,674 pedestrians, 1,967
   motorcycles and 408 cars were searched in urban areas.

   (R)   An illegal logging facility was disabled in a region near Tabatinga.
   450 hardwood logs were seized,  summing around 350 cubic metres.

    

    

   Agata 2 - September 16, 2011 (Southern and Midwestern regions of Brazil)

   Conducted by the Southern Military Command (Comando Militar Sul), in
   municipalities bordering Paraguay, Argentina and Uruguay. (I will add info
   here)

    

   Agata 3 - November 22, 2011 (Northwest of Brazil)

   (R)   6,500 military employed in the operation, among Navy, Army and Air
   Force (3,500 men).

   (R)   The Brazilian Ministery of Defense says Agata 3 covers the largest
   area of &amp;#8203;&amp;#8203;operation of the Armed Forces in the border region,
   mobilizing troops and means in a range that covers five Brazilian states:
   Amazonas, Acre, Rondonia, Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul.

   (R)   Area of Agata 3 operations goes from Baia Negra, in the state of
   Mato Grosso do Sul, up to Tabatinga, in the state of Amazonas.

   (R)   Planned actions: ban irregular landing tracks, docks clandestine and
   illegal mining, marine patrol and inspection in the rivers, blocking and
   control of roads, ostensive patrolling with law enforcement, control of
   aviation fuel at airports and aerodromes in the area of
   &amp;#8203;&amp;#8203;operations, civic and social actions in poor communities,
   specialized recognition of border, people pat-down, ships, aircraft and
   facilities inspections, operation of search and seizure, and interception
   of suspicious aircrafts.

   (R)   Among the participating military, 5,000 belong to the Western
   Military Command and the Amazonia Military Command. Other 15,000 men are
   involved in the logistics of the operation, such as transport, health care
   and nutrition.

   (R)   Navy deployed vehicles from 2 commands: 6-o e 9-o Distritos Navais
   (Sixth and Ninth Naval Districts).

   (R)   Army deployed 2 thousand military along the border between the state
   of Rondonia and Bolivia.

   (R)   First day of operations counted with 57 aircrafts (hunt aircraft,
   helicopters, transport and reconnaissance aircrafts), 10 vessels and
   approximately 200 vehicles, including the Cascavel reconnaissance vehicle
   and the Urutu, armored vehicle used to carry troops.

   (R)   In the first day of operation, 56 hours of flight were used to
   perform transport missions, reconnaissance, interception and simulated
   attacks.

   (R)   Supporting agencies engaged in Agata 3: Brazilian Institute of
   Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (Instituto Brasileiro de Meio
   Ambiente e dos Recursos Naturais Renovaveis - IBAMA), Federal Tax Service
   of Brazil (Secretaria da Receita Federal - SRF), Rainforest Protection
   System (Sistema de Protec,ao da Amazonia -SIPAM), Brazilian Agency of
   Intelligence (Agencia Brasileira de Inteligencia - ABIN), Brazilian Agency
   for Civil Aviation (Agencia Nacional de Aviac,ao Civil - ANAC), National
   Foundation for Indigenous People (Fundac,ao Nacional do Indio - FUNAI),
   Chico Mendes Institute for Conservation of Biodiversity (Instituto Chico
   Mendes de Conservac,ao da Biodiversidade -ICMBio), state level law
   enforcement unities from Acre, Amazonas, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul
   and Rondonia.

   (R)   Under the coordination of Joint Staff of the Armed Forces, Operation
   Agata 3 also includes civic and social actions bringing medical and dental
   care to the local populations.

   (R)   The Brazilian Air Force (FAB) relies on jet fighters F-5EM and A-29
   Super Tucano, in the cities of Tabatinga (state of Amazonas), Campo Grande
   (state of Mato Grosso) and Porto Velho (state of Roraima), to protect
   Brazilian airspace against illicit flights. These aircrafts receive
   support from airborne early warning and control aircraft equipped with
   radars capable of detecting planes flying low, the E-99.

   (R)   Besides the radar coverage made &amp;#8203;&amp;#8203;by the E-99 (airborne
   early warning and control aircraft), monitoring is also done by the DLRS,
   an acronym for Remote Data Link Station (Remote Data Link). These stations
   capture information sent by the aircraft and send them to the control of
   operations, where information from other radars are complemented by
   providing more precise control of the traffic of aircraft flying at low
   altitude.

   (R)   Brazilian Air Force point of support the during the Operation Agata
   3 is Campo Grande Air Base (Base Aerea de Campo Grande, BACG). The base is
   located in a strategic location, close to the tri-border area, also
   targeted by the operation. Aircrafts departing from the base during Agata
   3: SC-105 Amazonas, C-98 Caravan, R-99, E-99, F-5, A-29 Super Tucano and
   helicopters H-1H.

   (R)   Transport Squadron is also headquartered in the same base (Campo
   Grande). Aircrafts: Onc,a (1/15 GAv); search and rescue Pelicano (2/10
   Gav); hunt aircraft for aerial surveillance missions Flecha (3/3 Gav).

   (R)   Naval vessels used in the operation: Monitor Parnaiba (U17),
   transport ship Paraguassu (G15), tanker ship Potengi (G17), auxiliary ship
   Piraim (U29), Hospital ship Tenente Maximiano (U28), Hospital ship Dr.
   Montenegro (U16), River patrol vessel Amapa (P32), River patrol vessel
   Piratini (P14), River patrol vessel Piraja (P11), other 29 vessels and 3
   helicopters.

   (R)   Telecommunications resources: More than 100 people form the Command
   and Control (Comando e Controle , C2) section of the operation, working
   with 25 tons of equipment. To protect voice connections and transmission
   of information, participants of the operation are using secure channels
   connected by satellites operated by the Integrated Center for Air Defense
   and Air Traffic Control (CINDACTAs, Centros Integrados de Defesa Aerea e
   Controle de Trafego Aereo) of Brasilia, Curitiba (state of Parana) and
   Manaus (state of Amazonas).

   (R)   Agata 3 counts with more than 50 aircrafts (helicopters, fighters,
   transport aircraft and reconnaissance) operating in the cities of Campo
   Grande (Mato Grosso do Sul capital), Cuiaba (Mato Grosso capital), Vilhena
   (city in the state of Rondonia) and Rio Branco (Acre capital)

    

   Agata 3 results (so far):

    

   (R)   438 vessels were approached by the Brazilian Navy, six were notified
   by minor irregularities, and two were seized, for carrying passengers
   instead of cargo, what was allowed on its permit and for lack of
   documentation. The inspections occurred in a total of 16,550 km of
   waterways.

   (R)   Two cocaine traffickers were arrested in the Gaucho Trail (Trilha do
   Gaucho), a trail close to the Bolivian border managed by the Brazilian
   Army, considered military area and forbidden access. The alleged offenders
   tried to flee when approached by an Army patrol, but were stopped by
   soldiers and then sent to the Federal Police in Esdras, a checkpoint on
   the border between Brazil and Bolivia. The criminals were sent to prison
   in Corumba (Mato Grosso do Sul).

   (R)   Three motorcycles were seized because of modified chassis and lack
   of documentation.

   (R)   Control and inspection posts (PBCE - Postos de Bloqueio e Controle
   de Estradas) were established along the strip aimed by the operation, from
   Baia Negra, in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, up to Tabatinga, in the
   state of Amazonas, covering the border with Peru, Bolivia and Paraguay.
   Posts have sniffing dogs trained to detect illicit goods.

   (R)   In the mission the military used 7.62 rifles, 12 caliber rifles and
   pistols. A sniffer dog was also used to locate drugs in vehicles.

    

   Any bilateral treaties apply to the operations - already signed or
   underway.

   (R)   When the PEF was launched, Nelson Jobim, the Minister of Defense at
   the time, said Brazil would respect the sovereignty of neighboring
   countries. His statement: "In the first moment we can seek for trading
   information with neighboring countries and, in a second phase, we can
   think of having joint operations with other countries."

   (R)   The first actions occurring at the borders involve only Brazilian
   operatives, but the Brazilian government (according to a media report) is
   negotiating operations with neighboring countries such as Venezuela,
   Colombia and Peru.

   (R)   On Nov. 28, 3 officials from Bolivian Army, Navy and Air Force were
   awaited in the city of Guajara Mirim (state of Rondonia) to watch Agata 3
   actions.

   (R)   On July 22, 2011, a media report mentioned that Brazil and Colombia
   would sign an agreement establishing joint operations against criminal
   activities in the common border. The agreement would be part of the PEF.
   (I have to check the status of this accord)

   (R)    Brazil and Colombia Agreement: On Aug 4, 2011, an agreement to
   increase security in the frontier area between Colombia and Brazil in the
   Amazon region has been signed. Colombian Defense Minister Rodrigo Rivera
   and his Brazilian counterpart Nelson Jobim signed the Bilateral Border
   Security Plan in the Brazilian town of Tabatinga, close to the Colombian
   border. The aim of the plan is to "strengthen on a political and strategic
   level bilateral relations, in terms of security, and identify the illicit
   activities that constitute risks and threats to frontier security, with
   the objective of increasing the ability to confront them in a united
   manner," said the minister of defense in a communique. Colombia and Brazil
   share a 1,022 mileland border in an area with a small population subjected
   to the presence of illegal armed groups, especially guerrilla and
   narcotrafficking, and arms trafficking groups.

   (R)   Brazil and Bolivia Agreement: On Oct 31, 2011 Bolivia and Brazil
   inked a memorandum of understanding to strengthen joint efforts in
   fighting drug trafficking along their borders. The agreement would promote
   cooperation in fighting drug trafficking and other organized crimes,
   according to Brazilian Defense Minister Celso Amorim. According to the
   agreement, the armed forces of both countries will hold periodical
   meetings to coordinate on technical and operation issues for their mutual
   benefit. It also ratified operations of Brazil's unmanned aerial vehicles
   along the two countries' borders. Brazil would support its neighbor with
   radars, airplanes as well as unmanned aerial vehicles to safeguard the
   airspace of the two countries' border areas and crack down on illegal
   activities.

    

    

   Have the neighbors responded negatively? (Some squawking from Paraguay is
   to be expected.) Still have to check this

    

   There are other two operations happening simultaneously to Agata 3:
   Operation Cadeado and Operation Atalaia. I have information on it, but
   still have to translate it.

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-11-30 00:35:12</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-02 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4620686_plano-iso-8859-1-q-estrat-e9gico_de_fronteiras_-28pef-29-iso.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>hooper@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ben.west@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kerley.tolpolar@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4686986</id>
    <title>G3/S3* - IRAN/US/ISRAEL/SYRIA - Iran officials accuses USA,	Israel
	of interfering in Syria
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-09-13 09:40:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4686986_g3-s3-iran-us-israel-syria-iran-officials-accuses-usa-israel.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4688768</id>
    <title>PNA/AFRICA/LATAM/MESA - Lebanese Hezbollah chief raps USA,
	urges calm in Syria -
	IRAN/US/ISRAEL/LEBANON/PNA/SYRIA/IRAQ/EGYPT/BAHRAIN/LIBYA/YEMEN/TUNISIA
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-12-07 09:43:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4688768_pna-africa-latam-mesa-lebanese-hezbollah-chief-raps-usa.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>mailto:translations@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>translations@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4808824</id>
    <title>Re: FOR COMMENT - Terrorists, the one thing Mex, the cartels and
	the US agree on
</title>
    <description>   I've been on this. 
   MM, ill add the quick response from today somewhere in there. otherwise,
   let me know asap if there's anything else.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, October 11, 2011 6:00:47 PM
   Subject: Re: FOR COMMENT - Terrorists, the one thing Mex, the cartels
   and        the US agree on

   On 10/11/11 5:48 PM, Karen Hooper wrote:

     This could use more links that it has -- though I got a bunch in there I
     know we have more. If you have some good ones, please throw them in
     here.

     --------

     The alleged terrorist plot to attack a Saudi Ambassador in Washington DC
     from Mexico announced Oct. 11
     [http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111011-irans-alleged-plot-against-saudi-ambassador-united-states]
     raises a number of very serious questions about Mexico's utility as a
     staging point for terrorist operations against the United States. A
     perennial concern for U.S. security agencies, the porosity[works for me,
     but is this a word?] of the US-Mexico border and the potential for a
     serious security threat there is always a high profile ?political? issue
     in the United States. Furthermore, reports that accused terrorist and
     U.S.-Iranian dual citizen Manssor Arababsiar attempted to hire an
     individual who he [Arababsiar] believed had connections to a Mexican
     drug cartel ?again? raise concerns that Mexican drug cartels could use
     their considerable linkages to the United States to help international
     terrorist organizations. Upon careful examination, the threat is much
     smaller than it might initially seem -- in part because of close
     US-Mexico cooperation and primarily because the threat of US retaliation
     on any organization that participates in terrorist activities is
     extremely high.

     The complaint detailing the charges describes Arababsiar approaching an
     individual already on the payroll of the U.S. Drug Enforcement
     Administration who claimed to Arababsiar that he had links to what the
     complaint describes as a "large, sophisticated, and violent
     drug-trafficking cartel." Anonymous sources later told US news agency
     ABC that the cartel in question is Los Zetas cartel, which controls
     narcotics transfers[this implies 100% control to me] along Mexico's
     eastern coast
     [http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110808-mexico-security-memo-striking-los-zetas-northeast].
     Arababsiar has been accused of [he asked if the CS (confidential source)
     had experience with explosives, not for the CS to give the explosives to
     him]soliciting C-4 explosives from the informant and asking for a total
     of four people to stage an attack on the ambassador. According to the
     complaint, Arababsiar[i think this is backwards, wasn't it the CS who
     was inititially hesistant?] was initially hesitant to approve an attack
     that would cause civilian casualties, but ultimately agreed that they
     would be acceptable if necessary as collateral damage. The informant was
     offered and accepted $1.5 million as a fee for the assassination. [but
     never paid.  only about $100k in 2 transfers up to that point]

     On Sept. 28, Arababsiar flew to Mexico, was denied entry, and ended up
     having to layover in New York City on his way to an unspecified
     destination, where he was arrested by US authorities on Sept. 29. In the
     Oct. 11 announcement of the arrest, U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder
     said in response to a question that the role Mexico played in
     Arababsiar's arrest was significant, but declined to comment further.

     The successful interception of the alleged plot, the cooperation with
     Mexico and the lack of involvement of any real drug cartels still leaves
     open the question: What if the DEA source had been a real cartel member
     and the plot had actually gone through? Though there are always reasons
     for concern, there are a number of factors that make Mexico a
     particularly difficult route of penetration into the US system.

     In the first place, the US has extremely active intelligence
     capabilities in Mexico. With DEA, DIA, CIA, FBI and other agencies
     deeply embedded in Mexico, it is a heavily monitored environment. And
     while the US may primarily be focused on the drug cartels and
     cooperation with the Mexican government, Iranians raise red flags
     everywhere they go. As a general rule, the United States reacts strongly
     to Iranian presence in Latin America, and tends to actively engage host
     countries to ramp up cooperation and monitoring of Iranian companies and
     personnel in the region.

     Secondly, as friendly as Mexico is as an intelligence environment for
     the United States, it is equally unfriendly to US enemies. The Mexican
     government has every reason to be hostile to a foreign entity hoping to
     launch an attack on the US from Mexican soil. It is obviously a key
     policy need for the United States, but Mexico is also inherently
     vulnerable both territorially and economically to any shifts in its
     northern neighbor. Should Mexico become a serious transit point for
     terrorist operatives seeking to attack the United States, Mexico would
     be subject to a rapid US intervention.

     This brings us to the potential wild card in the equation -- the
     cartels. Widely infamous for being particularly bloody and unscrupulous,
     Los Zetas is known to be active throughout the region in violent
     activities, human smuggling and drug transport. On its face, it might
     seem that the Zetas a** or their competitor cartel, Sinaloa a** could be
     a likely suspect[rather than 'likely suspect' i would say 'could have
     the capability to'] for cooperating with trans border terrorist
     campaigns. If nothing else a** one might imagine a** they could do it
     for the money. Looking more closely, however, any such plan would be
     exceedingly ill-conceived.

     The Zetas and all other cartels in Mexico -- despite a wide array of
     activities -- are ultimately business organizations with long-term
     strategic goals. These are not organizations that are looking to make a
     quick buck or become involved in anyone elsea**s violent political
     statements. Mexican drug cartels are struggling with one another and
     with the Mexican government for control over transportation routes that
     will allow them to transit cocaine from South America to the United
     States for as long and stable a period as possible. Any foray into
     international terrorism would be very bad for business. The United
     States and Mexico both would focus every available asset on dismantling
     any organization that engaged in international terrorism. With deep
     links into Mexico and physical proximity, the U.S. alone could disrupt a
     single network fairly rapidly. With cooperation from the Mexican
     government, they could do it even faster.

      

     But the risks do not end there. If an individual or smaller group of
     individuals even loosely associated with a cartel attempted to cooperate
     with international terrorist groups, they would be risking not only the
     wrath of the US and Mexican governments, but also the wrath of the
     cartels. Any group of individuals risking the safety of the cartel
     transportation networks would quickly be hunted down and turned over to
     the authorities by the cartels themselves in order to avoid direct
     persecution. This is a consistent pattern with Mexican drug gangs that
     perpetrators of high profile, politically costly attacks are rapidly
     turned over to Mexican authorities by their own compatriots.

     This is not to say that it would be impossible to hire Mexican criminals
     to attack US targets. Any plan to use Mexican drug cartels as a
     political tool against the United States would threaten the very
     existence of the cartel. And with the United States, Mexico and the
     cartels all united against the possibility, any attempt to do so would
     be extremely unlikely to succeed.

      

     Related links:

     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111005-mexico-security-memo-defining-cross-border-violence

     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110614-new-mexican-president-same-cartel-war

     http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical_diary/20110706-103028

      

     EXTERNAL LINK:
     http://jnslp.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/amended-complaint.pdf

      

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-10-12 01:20:31</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4808824_re-for-comment-terrorists-the-one-thing-mex-the-cartels-and.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>writers@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
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      <tag><name>brad.foster@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4849763</id>
    <title>G3/S3* - IRAN/US/ISRAEL/SYRIA - Iran officials accuses USA,	Israel
	of interfering in Syria
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-09-13 09:40:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4849763_g3-s3-iran-us-israel-syria-iran-officials-accuses-usa-israel.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
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      <tag><name>mailto:alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4879108</id>
    <title>G3/S3* - IRAN/US/ISRAEL/SYRIA - Iran officials accuses USA,	Israel
	of interfering in Syria
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-09-13 09:40:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4879108_g3-s3-iran-us-israel-syria-iran-officials-accuses-usa-israel.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alerts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4966214</id>
    <title>[OS] RUSSIA/GEORGIA - Russia trying to "enslave" Georgia,
	president says
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-11-22 18:58:11</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4966214_-os-russia-georgia-russia-trying-to-enslave-georgia.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>os@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:os@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4980408</id>
    <title>[Africa] COTE D'IVOIRE - Problems ahead for Ouattara?
</title>
    <description>   This is the most important part:
   It will be hard for incumbent Laurent Gbagbo to beat the combined forces
   of Allassane Ouattara and Henri Konan Bedie, both "Houphouet children,"
   and they signed a pre-electoral pact with two other small political
   parties to support whoever makes it to the second round. But results show
   a very pronounced ethnic base vote. That could complicate things for
   Ouattara or Bedie. The Akans, who voted en masse for Bedie and constitute
   a large electoral vote, may not easily follow Ouattara whom they see as
   the person who "created" problems for Bedie. This group that counts for
   almost 20 percent of the votes, could stay home or vote for Gbagbo, basing
   their preference on ethnicity and the fear of the "northerner and Muslim"
   Ouattara.

   Cote d' Ivoire Elections Results
   Updated: November 5, 2010 - 7:57pm

   http://www.liberianobserver.com/node/8913

   Allassane Ouattara, incumbent Laurent Gbagbo and Henri Konan Bedie
   By:
   Abdoulaye W. Dukule in Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire

   On Tuesday afternoon, the mega city of Abidjan came to a standstill when
   it was announced during the noon newscast that results would be announced
   at 3:00PM. The movement to get home and watch the results created a
   stampede on major highways. Lunches were interrupted and businesses shut
   down. Nothing was moving. Armed soldiers and UN peacekeepers drove around
   the city. It is worth noting that UN peacekeepers are almost invisible in
   Abidjan, except of the sporadic military truck passing here and there.

   It is as if they are not here, compared to Liberia where they man
   checkpoints and repair roads. On the other hand, the Special
   Representative of the UN Secretary General, Mr. Young M. Choi, seemed to
   be almost everywhere. He spent the day running between the various
   campaigns headquarters and the Office of the Prime Minister.

   Mid-afternoon, as streets were deserted and people expected results on
   their television screen, religious leaders came on, calling on all
   political leaders to be mindful of what they would tell their supporters
   and think of their responsibility as to where they were taking the country
   to fulfill their personal ambitions. Later, the Chief of Staff of the
   Army, General Mangou, came on the air to address Ivorians, asking them to
   feel free to move around.

   Texts messages had been sent around saying that there was a coup in the
   making, that Allassane Ouattara and Henri Konan Bedie had taken refuge in
   the French base or where on the run. Other text messages said that the
   Chief of Staff had been arrested. After the Chief of Staff, the Prime
   Minister Guillaume Soro came on the air, asking the Independent Elections
   Commission to release the results as they come in.

   None of this was comforting to the public and only confirmed the rumors
   that something "fishy" was going on. At Ibis hotel in the Plateau, a mile
   or so from the fortified presidential palace, workers start to roll down
   protective iron doors. The hall of the hotel, where most African Union,
   ECOWAS and European Union observers stayed turned into a club or pub, with
   people trying to find some sort of understanding.

   Finally, around 9:00PM, there was an announcement that the results would
   be on in a minute. After another thirty minutes wait, the results start to
   come on, district after district. Everyone in the hotel hall switched on
   their cellphones.

   This morning the broadcast continued, as results were certified.

   At the end of today, after more than 70 percent of votes being counted, a
   second round opposing Allassane Ouattara and incumbent Laurent Gbagbo will
   face off on most likely on November 28, 2010.

   At the end of the latest release of results, the "three big candidates"
   stand as follows:

   Laurent Gbagbo: 38.57 percent; Allassane Ouattara 36.76 percent; Henri
   Konan Bedie 27.91 percent

   No matter what happens with the remaining results, it seems unlikely that
   anyone would get the required 50+1 percent to become the next President of
   Cote d'Ivoire.

   It will be hard for incumbent Laurent Gbagbo to beat the combined forces
   of Allassane Ouattara and Henri Konan Bedie, both "Houphouet children,"
   and they signed a pre-electoral pact with two other small political
   parties to support whoever makes it to the second round. But results show
   a very pronounced ethnic base vote. That could complicate things for
   Ouattara or Bedie. The Akans, who voted en masse for Bedie and constitute
   a large electoral vote, may not easily follow Ouattara whom they see as
   the person who "created" problems for Bedie. This group that counts for
   almost 20 percent of the votes, could stay home or vote for Gbagbo, basing
   their preference on ethnicity and the fear of the "northerner and Muslim"
   Ouattara.

   Official results were announced Thursday morning, with everyone bracing up
   for a second round. Incumbent Gbagbo and his camp, according to opinion
   polls they sponsored, were expected to win by a large margin in the first
   round. Up to the time of voting, they excluded any thought of second
   round, banking on the prediction of winning in the first round, with at
   least 62 percent. Now, they have to regroup and be ready.

   0Copyright Liberian Observer - All Rights Reserved. This article cannot be
   re-published without the expressed, written consent of the Liberian
   Observer. Please contact us for more information or to request publishing
   permission.
</description>
    <date>2010-11-05 18:00:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-06 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4980408_-africa-cote-d-ivoire-problems-ahead-for-ouattara-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bayless.parsley@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>africa@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:africa@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4980457</id>
    <title>Re: keeping in touch
</title>
    <description>   Thanks -- I also heard the likelihood the PIB will pass by the 29th. I
   heard some local content aspects might still need to be sorted out, but
   overall it'll pass.

   Do deals need to get signed before the 29th then? Or is the schedule still
   flexible on when agreements are struck?

   Thanks.

   On 5/11/11 2:10 PM, imendara@yahoo.co.uk wrote:

     No probs. Just like I told u, the SWF bill has been passed. The PIB is
     next. It will be passed too from my sources.

     Sent via BlackBerry from T-Mobile

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Mark Schroeder &lt;mark.schroeder@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: Wed, 11 May 2011 13:29:05 -0500
     To: Udong, Ime Ndarake&lt;imendara@yahoo.co.uk&gt;
     Subject: Re: keeping in touch
     Hi Ime,

     Excellent. Thank you for the update. I'm also interested to see if we
     could still meet at some point? Either in Austin or College Station
     would be good (I could drive there to meet you if that's better).

     My best,

     --Mark

     On 5/11/11 1:11 PM, Udong, Ime Ndarake wrote:

       Mark,                                                                  
       It is a done deal. They will send it before the week runs out. That I  
       guarantee.                                                             
       Regards,                                                               
                                                                              
       Udong, Ime Ndarake,                                                    
       Dept of Petroleum Engineering                                          
       Texas A &amp; M University                                                 
       College Station, Tx 77843.                                             
       Office Tel: +1 979 458 1499                                            
       Mobile: +1 979 422 0282.                                               
                                                                              
                                                                              
                                                                              
       --- On Thu, 12/5/11, Mark Schroeder &lt;mark.schroeder@stratfor.com&gt;      
       wrote:                                                                 
                                                                              
         From: Mark Schroeder &lt;mark.schroeder@stratfor.com&gt;                   
         Subject: keeping in touch                                            
         To: "Ime Ndarake Udong" &lt;imendara@yahoo.co.uk&gt;                       
         Date: Thursday, 12 May, 2011, 0:32                                   
                                                                              
         Dear Ime:                                                            
                                                                              
         Hello again -- I hope you are well today. Was just wanting to check  
         if                                                                   
         there is any additional info today? Do you think they'll be amenable 
         to                                                                   
         a Letter of Invitation? I'm looking forward to meeting them and      
         seeing                                                               
         what partnerships can be achieved.                                   
                                                                              
         My best,                                                             
                                                                              
         --Mark                                                               
</description>
    <date>2011-05-11 21:14:44</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-06 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4980457_re-keeping-in-touch-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mark.schroeder@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>imendara@yahoo.co.uk</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4980860</id>
    <title>Re: hello from STRATFOR
</title>
    <description>   Dear Hoffman:

   Thank you for the follow-up, and I would like to confirm receipt of your
   previous email.

   As your document was quite extensively thought-out and written, we are
   giving it a deeper review. I will revert to you with feedback once it has
   been properly digested.

   I hope this finds you well.

   Sincerely,

   --Mark

   On 11/9/10 6:58 AM, Hoffman van Zyl wrote:

     Dear Mr Schroeder,

     I sent you the mail below (and a document) at the end of Sept in
     response to a question from yourself (the communication thread is
     visible below).

     I have had no reaction.

     I trust this was an oversight, and not common practice in your
     organization?.

     I just wanted to point out that I was struck by the extent to which the
     information I have been getting since  sending you the document, is
     increasingly confirming the views I expressed in the document I sent
     you, which I include again for your convenience in its' sent form.

     Regards

     Hoffman Theron van Zijl

     Business environment analysis. Strategic business design. Venture
     analysis &amp; design. Strategic &amp; operational business diagnostics.
     Strategic performance alignment.

     Mobile: +27832529457   
     E-mail: Hoffman@insight.za.com 
     Fax:    +27866912697   
     Skype name:     hoffmanvz      
     Web site:       http://www.insight.za.com      

     &lt;&lt;...&gt;&gt;

     _____________________________________________
     From: Hoffman van Zyl [mailto:hoffman@insight.za.com]
     Sent: 30 September 2010 10:47 AM
     To: 'Mark Schroeder'
     Subject: RE: hello from STRATFOR

      &lt;&lt; File: RSA Political Commentary JEHT Sep 2010.docx &gt;&gt;

     Dear Mark,

     Greetings from Hoffman at Elandsfontein near Johannesburg in Gauteng,
     South AfricaJ.

     I am sorry that this has taken so long. I was committed to a deadline on
     a project that required quite a bit of traveling, and could only attend
     to this intermittently. In a suggested closer alliance with STRATFOR
     that I had proposed through your vacancies channel (it was politely
     turned down), I had explained that, although I remain inclined and keen,
     and I believe imminently capable, I am not at present (for reasons of
     survival) ideally connected to or prepared to provide the kind of
     analysis attached here, quickly. As a result, what you will read has
     taken some time, is not in my opinion sufficiently informed from sources
     "on the inside" and is of necessity mainly the result of research and
     the application of informed deductive and assumptive facilities.

     Nevertheless, I have done some validation checks, and I believe it to be
     plausible and quite reliable within its context. It should be of value
     to you, but I would not be too surprised (but would of course be a
     little disappointed) if you did not find any additional insights or more
     clarity.

     Best regards

     Hoffman Theron van Zijl

     -----Original Message-----
     From: Mark Schroeder [mailto:mark.schroeder@stratfor.com]
     Sent: 10 September 2010 09:45 PM
     To: hoffman@insight.za.com
     Subject: hello from STRATFOR

       Dear Hoffman Theron van Zijl:

     Greetings from Stratfor in Austin, Texas. Thank you for your reader

     responses on our pieces. Feedback is always appreciated.

     I wanted to contact you to get your thoughts on South African

     developments. Right now we're looking at all the chatter within the ANC

     and machinations leading up to the general council meeting. Do you get

     any sense that threats from COSATU or the ANCYL are substantial? Zuma

     and his government appear to be stuck in a hard place, but it's not like

     they can reform policy pretty radically just because Malema makes a

     threat over support for a Zuma second term.

     Thank you for keeping in touch.

     Sincerely,

     --Mark

     --

     Mark Schroeder

     Director of Sub Saharan Africa Analysis

     STRATFOR, a global intelligence company

     Tel +1.512.744.4079

     Fax +1.512.744.4334

     Email: mark.schroeder@stratfor.com

     Web: www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-09 23:51:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-06 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4980860_re-hello-from-stratfor-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mark.schroeder@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>hoffman@insight.za.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4984588</id>
    <title>hello from STRATFOR
</title>
    <description>Dear Godfrey:

Greetings again from Stratfor. I hope this finds you well in
Johannesburg. We are keeping well and busy in Texas.

I wanted to check in with you on a small topic we're paying attention
to. Have you heard any developments regarding the Angolan president's
possible state visit to South Africa to take place around mid-December?

I'm also wondering if Standard Bank's plans to expand into Angola, will
factor in the bilateral discussions when the Angolans come to Pretoria?
We're trying to get a handle of what deals will be negotiated over.

Thanks for keeping in touch.

My best,

--Mark


-- 
Mark Schroeder
Director of Sub Saharan Africa Analysis
STRATFOR, a global intelligence company
Tel +1.512.744.4079
Fax +1.512.744.4334
Email: mark.schroeder@stratfor.com
Web: www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-11-29 18:00:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-06 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4984588_hello-from-stratfor-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mark.schroeder@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>godfrey.waluse@standardbank.co.za</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4984616</id>
    <title>wikileaks mirrored
</title>
    <description>   In case the wikileaks.org site goes down again, I've mirrored it here:

    

   https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/

    

    

    

   Kevin Stech

   Research Director | STRATFOR

   kevin.stech@stratfor.com

   +1 (512) 744-4086

    
</description>
    <date>2010-11-28 23:07:52</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 23:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4984616_wikileaks-mirrored-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kevin.stech@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4995106</id>
    <title>FW: Nigerians
</title>
    <description>Mark,

Let's discuss this afternoon.

-Don


Don R. Kuykendall 
President &amp; Chief Financial Officer
STRATFOR 
512.744.4314 phone 
512.744.4334 fax 
kuykendall@stratfor.com
  
_______________________
  
http://www.stratfor.com &lt;http://www.stratfor.com/&gt;
STRATFOR 
221 W. 6th Street 
Suite 400 
Austin, Texas 78701






On 6/30/11 2:50 PM, "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

&gt;1) Mark thinks the Nigerians would be interested in a concept paper (2-3
&gt;pages w/a diagram) on options to consider for standing up a new Fusion
&gt;Center.  I can write this up in about an hour and have already wrote it
&gt;up on a napkin.   
&gt;
&gt;Question:  Are we interested in doing this?      I would suggest we ask
&gt;first, then put together a formal proposal.   Might be able to make some
&gt;easy money.   
&gt;
&gt;2) Mark also thinks they would be interested in TrapWire for the
&gt;protection of the Presidential palace.   They love "gadgets."
&gt;
&gt;3) We already know they are interested in Xe (Blackwater) which Don is
&gt;brokering. 
</description>
    <date>2011-07-01 19:21:14</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4995106_fw-nigerians-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mark.schroeder@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5003490</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Once we do know, then we will know who was behind it.

   Until then, this is all conjecture and opinion.  And you know what
   opinions are like.

   On 7/22/11 9:13 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     We don't know

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:12:04 -0500 (CDT)
     To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
     Was the shooter a Libyan?

     On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:15:11</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5003490_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5003497</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Mercenary
   Contract hit

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Hoor Jangda &lt;hoor.jangda@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:25:36 -0500 (CDT)
   To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
   height.

   On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

     Was the shooter a Libyan?

     On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:26:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5003497_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5003625</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Qaddaffi out-sources jobs, going back to Carlos the Jackal.

   Ck the OS about 3-4 weeks ago, about Qaddaffi hiring mercs.

   The suspect could be ex-French Foreign Legion.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:30:48 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   Maybe, or he could be the Norwegian McVeigh.

   On 7/22/11 9:26 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     Mercenary
     Contract hit

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Hoor Jangda &lt;hoor.jangda@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:25:36 -0500 (CDT)
     To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
     the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
     height.

     On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

       Was the shooter a Libyan?

       On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:34:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5003625_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5008523</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - GERMANY/AFGHANISTAN - German security company
 in Afghanistan
</title>
    <description>   Good work, Hoor.

   On 8/4/11 4:10 PM, Hoor Jangda wrote:

     Kunduz isn't part of phase 1 of the handover so there are foreign forces
     still in the province.

     On Thursday, 8/4/11 3:10 PM, Kristen Cooper wrote:

       Is Kunduz among the initial areas where they are trying to hand over
       security to the Afghan forces?

       On 8/4/11 3:50 PM, Michael Wilson wrote:

         PUBLICATION: Check with Hoor first
         SOURCE: New source, DE1000
         ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor source
         SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Former intelligence analyst in Afghanistan.
         SOURCE  Reliability : (new source not sure yet)
         ITEM CREDIBILITY: (not sure yet)
         DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
         SPECIAL HANDLING:
         SOURCE HANDLER: Hoor

         This is someone that I spoke to post the Kunduz attack (August 2) at
         the German security office. These are the main questions I asked
         after the attack: There is quite a bit here. If you have any
         questions you want asked let me know.

         Questions I asked:
         What do you think will happen with Kunduz? does it appear that the
         security situation will get worse? Any idea what the Taliban
         structure in Kunduz is currently looking like?

         His response :
         Dear Hoor,

         Many thanks for your reply. It's great to discuss analytical
         intricacies with someone at Stratfor, which I've been reading and
         greatly appreciating as a subscriber for some 9 years now.

         The company, LANTdefence, actually belongs to EXOP GmbH, a small
         German security and intelligence firm. The main client base
         consisted of humanitarian organisations active in Afghanistan and
         Pakistan, particularly German ones. I traveled a lot to and within
         Pakistan for a corporate client, building up an intelligence and
         early warning infrastructure for their project sites. I still have a
         number of good contacts in the humanitarian and security environment
         in Afghanistan. Later this year I might actually go back to
         Afghanistan for a few weeks on a consulting assignment.

         Re. the situation in Kunduz: I visited Kunduz several times in 2009
         and 2010, and even back then, the security situation was decidedly
         worse than in Mazar and even Kabul. International aid workers could
         only move around the city with local escort. Whether the escorts
         were armed or not pretty much depended on the approach of the
         respective humanitarian organisation/company: The Germans (GIZ) were
         generally travelling without armed escort, while the UN and actors
         like DAI (contractor of USAID) had different approaches. The main
         character of Kunduz City has long been the fact that it is basically
         surrounded by Taliban or Taliban-friendly insurgents, who have also
         been known to have a permanent if somewhat subtle presence in the
         city. Insurgent influence on the city was always palpable - e.g.
         when I spent a few days there in May 2010 it was a fact of life that
         cell phones didn't work between 6pm and 5am because the Taliban
         forced the providers to switch off networks during the night.
         Western nationals working with aid agencies could generally not be
         present beyond city limits. Even locals working for Western
         organisations were increasingly threatened.

         The current situation in Kunduz has further deteriorated, compared
         to 2010, according to my contacts in Kunduz and Kabul. The German
         Bundeswehr which is based near Kunduz airport has dramatically
         failed in their stabilisation efforts, largely due to not
         understanding the concept of COIN. (I have talked to many German
         officers every time I was in Kunduz, and have researched the German
         COIN approach in my 2008 dissertation at King's College London.)
         This does not bode well for the future security situation in Kunduz.
         US forces are largely dictating the pace and degree of pressure on
         the insurgents, but NATO forces in the area are on the backfoot as
         everyone is well aware that NATO will leave within the next 2-3
         years. Local power brokers (Taliban, arbaki, corrupt police, ANA,
         etc.) are preparing to fight for the power gap that NATO forces will
         leave behind when they will eventually draw back.

         I am not too sure about the insurgent structure in Kunduz at the
         moment - at least I don't have a complete picture. However, I know
         from conversations with local police and foreign intel people there
         that apart from the local Taliban structure, foreign fighters have
         always posed a particular problem in Kunduz. There has always been
         talk about 'the Uzbeks', referring to Islamist militants from
         Uzbekistan who have been known to live in local safehouses in the
         city. Also, Kunduz police chief Aqtash told me in a 90-min meeting
         last year that there is a hotspot village about 20km northwest of
         Kunduz City where according to his estimates around 100 Haqqani
         militants or sympathisers are based. Furthermore, recent information
         from German authorities (and Youtube videos) show that there is a
         small but seemingly constant stream of jihadi fighters with German
         passports who join the insurgents in the Kunduz area. From what I
         know these are German militants who first take the usual route
         Turkey-Zahedan (Iran)-Pakistani tribal areas and are then moved on
         to Northern Afghanistan via Kunar/Nuristan and Badakhshan.

         Lastly, a few words on the 02 Aug attack in Kunduz. I agree with you
         in considering this a particularly interesting event. While it is
         not unheard of that local guards employed by international orgs get
         injured or killed in attacks, direct attacks on Western security
         companies are quite rare in Afghanistan according to my reading. The
         January 2011 attack on the 'Finest' supermarket in Kabul was such an
         attack, but in that case an individual XE employee had been tracked
         and assaulted while shopping at the supermarket. The attack now on
         LANTdefence (and their local partner Kabora) is therefore a
         significant thing in my view. Such a suicide attack after just one
         year of presence in Kunduz is certainly a setback - other Western
         security companies have operated in Kunduz for years without getting
         hit. The fact that the Taliban have hightlighted the attack in their
         claim of responsibility as being against a 'German intelligence
         centre' leaves no doubt that it was LANTdefence/EXOP that was the
         intended target. The problem for LANTdefence/EXOP were always the,
         let's say, close ties to German intelligence that did certainly not
         go unnoticed among local house staff, local guards and drivers etc.
         Plenty of opportunities for the Taliban to gather target intel, if
         the right sort of pressure is put on the families of local staff,
         for example. On the other side, almost all foreign security
         companies are rumoured to have intelligence ties, so the Taliban
         could very well have only done some guess-work.

         The attack was apparently meant to be a strong warning against the
         company, but was not actually designed to annihilate it completely.
         (The main LANTdefence office is in Kabul anyway.) I know the
         compound in Kunduz pretty well, and any attacker could have expected
         to run into resistance from anything between 6 and 10 armed guards
         and their German ex-army supervisors. Still, only two insurgent
         gunmen stormed the house after the initial blast that opened the
         main gate. They were not killed by responding police, but detonated
         their explosives belts themselves after 1-2 hours of firefight.

         The attack will certainly have implications for the security of
         foreign aid workers, especially Germans in the area and probably
         country-wide. As I said before, LANTdefence, partnering with Kabora,
         is responsible for all GIZ physical security all over Afghanistan.
         Now that LANTdefence themselves have become the target of an attack
         and have been singled out by Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid as
         'German intelligence', the company will be forced to drastically
         step up their own security measures, which leaves less bandwidth for
         protecting their clients. Also, if for example the Kabul HQ of the
         company would be attacked, the neighbouring GIZ building on one
         side, and the other neighbours, the French NGO ACF, would be
         severely affected as well. It is surely a problem when a security
         provider becomes a security risk themselves.

         Anyway - I could go on forever but have to cut short now. I hope my
         info is useful for you to even better understand the local context.
         As I said in my initial message, if you plan to incorporate some of
         the more sensitive info into your analyses, such as the background
         on LANTdefence/EXOP, that's fine, but please do not hint at whom you
         have it from. If you have questions on the above or on anything
         else, don't hesitate to get back in touch.

         Thanks and all best,

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com


 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-08-04 22:20:06</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 02:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5008523_re-alpha-insight-germany-afghanistan-german-security-company.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5025331</id>
    <title>cote d'ivoire
</title>
    <description>   Hey Lauren, I was just wondering if your dad is still following Cote
   d'Ivoire issues. They are going through a fiasco right now with results
   from the run-off presidential election being held up. Accusations are
   flying back and forth over why the results are being held up.

   It's down to incumbent Gbagbo (the southerner) versus former Prime
   Minister Alassane Ouattara (the northerner). Ex-President Bedie has said
   he's thrown his support in with Ouattara.

   We're watching to see how Gbagbo's camp responds, whether they'll pull a
   Kenya and try to impose favorable results, or if the results are not
   favorable, block it and manage the fallout, even if it takes months.

   Thanks if you're dad's got any stuff from the street there.

   --Mark
</description>
    <date>2010-12-01 14:46:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-06 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5025331_cote-d-ivoire-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mark.schroeder@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5034591</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT - AUSTRALIA/US - Issues Obama will address in OZ
 visit - CN65
</title>
    <description>   **Source won't tell me who his source says but does say that he is in a
   very high govt position

   SOURCE: CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes, see special handling
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: A/B 
   SPECIAL HANDLING: No attribution with any publication.  Please see me
   first if we use.
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

       
     Interesting question.

     Of course it is the 60th anniversary of the ANZUS. Defence issues could
     include:

     (as you said) basing of pre-delpoyed equiment in SBTA to get over issues
     to do with AQIS etc. It would include pre-positioning U.S. equipment in
     Australia,increasing access to test ranges bases and conducting more
     joint exercises and training. The US want increased military access and
     cooperation that will allow the U.S. to broaden its posture in the
     region. The shared base idea is part of U.S. efforts to diversify its
     Asian military footprint in a politically agreeable way.

      
     Afghanistan will also obviously be also a major topic
      
     Cyber-warfare is bound to be part of their agreement. This would be the
     first time that cyber-security appears in a bilateral US defence
     treaty.  I know that the Pentagon aims to discuss plans for bilateral
     offensiveoperations in the digital arena.

     The Defence Trade Cooperation Treaty,

     JSF

     Missile Defence

     Enhanced engagement of the US in the Asia-Pacific as a hedge against
     China.

     Space cooperation 

      Just some thoughts off the top of the head.

      
</description>
    <date>2011-10-10 13:27:04</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5034591_-alpha-insight-australia-us-issues-obama-will-address-in-oz.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ben.preisler@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5034740</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT - PNG/AUSTRALIA - O'Neill in Oz - CN65
</title>
    <description>   In response to this question:  PNG PM O'neill is coming to Oz next week.
   Any idea what will be discussed? Any insight on the latest details on
   PNG-OZ?

   SOURCE: CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

   As regards O'Neill, he'll be interested in just one thing - money.  He
   will be wanting increased aid from Australia, and untied aid, i.e. direct
   budgetary support as opposed to aid tied to particular projects and
   administered by Australia.
   Gillard will be keen to get their feet on the sticky paper regarding
   offshore processing of asylum seekers on Manus Island, since the High
   Court struck down offshore processing in Malaysia.
</description>
    <date>2011-10-10 01:07:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5034740_-alpha-insight-png-australia-o-neill-in-oz-cn65-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>clint.richards@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5036753</id>
    <title>RE: Client Match -- Canada
</title>
    <description>   Right -- thanks. Is either Valero or Rowan involved in the oil sands (tar
   sands)? My guess would be Rowan is more likely -- and if it is actually
   drilling there, that is important. Drilling for oil in the tar sands is
   enormously expensive, and these royalties could hurt development.
    
   And if the companies are involved, do we know what stage that royalty
   increase is at right now? (And the final amount?) Does it affect
   previously negotiated contracts, or only new ones?
    
   Thanks.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Mark Schroeder [mailto:mark.schroeder@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, February 22, 2008 3:04 PM
   To: 'Joseph de Feo'
   Cc: 'Reva Bhalla'
   Subject: Client Match -- Canada
   The government of the Canadian province of Alberta's recent decision to
   raise royalty taxes on oil sands extracted from the province. The tax
   increase is likely to have a negative impact that will slow future
   investment in Alberta's energy sector and lead to output to rise at a much
   slower pace. Alberta now produces about 1.1 million barrels per day of
   crude oil.
    
    
</description>
    <date>2008-02-22 21:53:42</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-06-20 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5036753_re-client-match-canada-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>defeo@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mark.schroeder@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5037583</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - PERU/ENERGY - Thoughts on Camisea
</title>
    <description>   just fyi - i have zero knowledge of the geology of camisea, so i can't
   offer a guess as to whether gazprom can do it

   what i can  say is that gazprom doens't pay for investments elsewhere - it
   must be paid to do the work

   the one exception is partnership with ENI which are....squirrelly

   On 7/15/11 8:36 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     who is the source handler for this?   the alleged Russian bid to
     displace Pluspetrol and Hunt is definitely worth digging into given the
     client interest in Camisea. Lauren, is this something about which you'd
     be able to ask around?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Benjamin Preisler" &lt;ben.preisler@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: alpha@stratfor.com
     Sent: Friday, July 15, 2011 8:30:56 AM
     Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - PERU/ENERGY - Thoughts on Camisea

     PUBLICATION: Yes if desired
     SOURCE: PE 502
     ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor Source in Peru
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: consultant following domestic unrest, energy and
     security
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY :  B- (anit-Humala)
     ITEM CREDIBILITY:  3-4
     DISTRO: Alpha
     SPECIAL HANDLING: n/a

     Source is pretty reliable for the first bit of information.  As for the
     second bit, I am less certain of his reliability.  Alexis Humala is
     Ollanta's brother and married to a Russian woman.  We do know that
     Alexis's trip, Humala's trip to DC  and the Russian publication of
     Alexis's visit did line up chronologically as stated in the insight.

     The consortium Camisea is very worried and asked for a meeting with me. 
     I had lunch with a manager from Camisea and offered them a wider range
     of services and coverage.  Telling them there is little risk under
     Humala would be a lie. 

     Alexis Humala's visit to Russia is a growing scandal. He went to
     negotiate matters related to fishing, gas and nuclear energy with a
     letter signed by Ollanta and Nadine.  They are now denying this, which
     could become something irrelevant in something very suspicious.  The
     Russians made the visit public due to Humala's meeting with Obama.  The
     Russians are very interested  in replacing Pluspetrol and Hunt oil. 
     They are already coming through the false/back door.  This is going to
     generate a reaction from the US Govt.

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19
</description>
    <date>2011-07-15 16:17:35</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5037583_re-alpha-insight-peru-energy-thoughts-on-camisea-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>zeihan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5038287</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged "Anonymous" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise "anonymous"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-10 19:47:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5038287_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5040453</id>
    <title>[alpha] Fw: Oslo
</title>
    <description>   Trapwire

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:18:40 -0500 (CDT)
   To: burton@stratfor.com&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: Oslo
   99 percent sure. Some reports already confirming.
    
   From: burton@stratfor.com [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, July 22, 2011 12:15 PM
   To: Michael Maness
   Subject: Re: Oslo
    
   Think it was a bomb?

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:00:28 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Oslo

   My money's on a Libyan connection.

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 18:31:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5040453_-alpha-fw-oslo-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5040653</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Maybe, or he could be the Norwegian McVeigh.

   On 7/22/11 9:26 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     Mercenary
     Contract hit

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Hoor Jangda &lt;hoor.jangda@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:25:36 -0500 (CDT)
     To: &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
     the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
     height.

     On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

       Was the shooter a Libyan?

       On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:30:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5040653_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5041325</id>
    <title>Re: Wikileaks exposes SA spy boss
</title>
    <description>   oops, probably should not have said her name...

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Mark Schroeder &lt;mark.schroeder@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: Nate Taylor &lt;nhtaylor1998@yahoo.com&gt;
   Sent: Mon, January 24, 2011 9:55:39 AM
   Subject: Wikileaks exposes SA spy boss
   guess who the "unidentified" political officer is, and the Oct. 2009
   meeting is about the same time we were all meeting (coincidence?). the
   news24 link to the original cable turns up blank. we're still looking for
   another way to get the original cable.

   Wikileaks exposes SA spy boss
   2011-01-23 09:19
   http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/Wikileaks-exposes-SA-spy-boss-20110123

   Johannesburg - An explosive Wikileaks cable claims that spy boss and
   President Jacob Zuma confidante Moe Shaik threatened to expose the
   a**political skeletonsa** of Zumaa**s enemies and reveals that he was
   cultivated by the Americans as a key informant within the Zuma camp.

   The fresh revelations are likely to shake the Zuma administration as they
   involve one of the presidenta**s key allies and the man tasked with
   running the countrya**s secret service. They give new insight into the
   bitter battle which took place between Zumaa**s allies and those aligned
   to former President Thabo Mbeki prior to Mbekia**s ousting.

   The confidential US Embassy diplomatic cable a** titled Zuma advisor
   threatens to expose political skeletons- claims South African Secret
   Service boss Shaik, brother of convicted fraudster and Zuma funder
   Schabir, told the Americans that Zumaa**s legal team would subpoena the
   countrya**s most influential figures if he lost a bid to have corruption
   charges against him a**re-examineda**.

   The cable said he named Mbeki, the then suspended police commissioner
   Jackie Selebi, former director of Public Prosecutions Vusi Pikoli, then
   acting head of public prosecutions Mokotedi Mpshe as well as former 
   Speaker Frene Ginwala as targets.

   Shaik has refused to confirm or deny the claims.

   The cable a** one of 250 000 leaked to Whistleblower website Wikileaks but
   obtained exclusively by Media24 Investigations a** also reveals that the
   US Embassy in Pretoria actively cultivated Shaik as a key source of
   information on Zumaa**s inner circle and the a**motivations and strategies
   of the Zuma campa**.

   Dated September 10 2008, two days before corruption charges against Zuma
   were initially dismissed by Judge Chris Nicholson, the cable was sent to
   the Secretary of State in Washington DC and copied to US consuls in Durban
   and Cape Town, the CIA, the US Defence Intelligence Agency and the White
   House National Security Council.

   It is one of a number of classified cables recording meetings between
   Shaik a** who was controversially appointed head of the South African
   Secret Service (SASS), South Africaa**s foreign intelligence wing, in
   October 2009 - and an unidentified US embassy political officer.

   a**Shaik complained that all these people know Zuma is innocent and that
   he does not understand why they have not come to Zumaa**s defence before
   now,a** the cable noted.

   Shared insights

   The cable noted that a**as usuala** Shaik treated the political officer or
   a**PolOffa** as a**a friend, a child, a confidante, and an adversary all
   in the same conversationa**.

   a**He always shares insights into the motivations and strategies of the
   Zuma camp, but also expects obvious respect and gratitude for it."

   a**PolOff does not know if Shaik meets with other diplomats, but presumes
   his contact within the diplomatic circle is limited."

   a**The Australian High Commissioner mentioned he had met Shaik once
   before...and Shaik admitted he spoke to the Norwegians but did not say if
   this was on a regular or one-time basis.a**

   The cable notes that Shaik a**used to meet with the French, but cut them
   off after a French diplomat insulted him immediately before the ANC
   conference at Polokwanea**.

   Ousting Mbeki

   The political officer reported that the Irish ambassador had approached
   her to arrange a meeting with Shaik after seeing her and Shaik in a
   restaurant together, a**but Shaik refused, telling PolOff she should guard
   her contacts more closelya**.

   A source familiar with Shaika**s interaction with the US diplomats claimed
   this week that Shaik had been tasked with winning diplomats over to the
   idea of a Zuma presidency.

   An earlier confidential cable, dated May 16 2008 speculated a** after a
   meeting with Shaik a** that the a**Zuma camp may be looking to oust
   Mbekia**.

   In a cable, dated June 4 2009, that focused on President Zumaa**s new
   cabinet, Shaik is said to have described the appointments of various
   presidential advisers, among them Collins Chabane a** now minister in the
   presidency for performance monitoring, Ayanda Dlodlo a** now deputy
   minister of public service and administration, Mandisi Mpahlwa a** now
   envoy to Moscow, Lindiwe Zulu, Zumaa**s international affairs advisor and
   Bonisiwe Makhene as concessions to a**keep them quieta**.

   No comment

   Contacted this week, Shaik said: a**I will neither confirm nor deny that
   we had discussions with the Americans on these matters and I will
   definitely make no comment about the accuracy of those reports. The
   Americans must deal with accuracy.a**

   US embassy spokesperson Elizabeth Kennedy-Trudeau said the embassy would
   not confirm or comment on the contents or veracity of a**stolen
   documentsa**.

   a**The nature of cables in themselves is that these are one persona**s
   interpretation of a meeting, not official US public policy. The
   circumstances, because of the very nature of spot reporting are open to
   interpretation.a**
</description>
    <date>2011-01-24 17:06:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5041325_re-wikileaks-exposes-sa-spy-boss-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mark.schroeder@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>nhtaylor1998@yahoo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5041709</id>
    <title>Re: Wikileaks exposes SA spy boss
</title>
    <description>   very interesting.  Do you think Brooke knew about this??

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Mark Schroeder &lt;mark.schroeder@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: Nate Taylor &lt;nhtaylor1998@yahoo.com&gt;
   Sent: Mon, January 24, 2011 9:55:39 AM
   Subject: Wikileaks exposes SA spy boss
   guess who the "unidentified" political officer is, and the Oct. 2009
   meeting is about the same time we were all meeting (coincidence?). the
   news24 link to the original cable turns up blank. we're still looking for
   another way to get the original cable.

   Wikileaks exposes SA spy boss
   2011-01-23 09:19
   http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/Wikileaks-exposes-SA-spy-boss-20110123

   Johannesburg - An explosive Wikileaks cable claims that spy boss and
   President Jacob Zuma confidante Moe Shaik threatened to expose the
   a**political skeletonsa** of Zumaa**s enemies and reveals that he was
   cultivated by the Americans as a key informant within the Zuma camp.

   The fresh revelations are likely to shake the Zuma administration as they
   involve one of the presidenta**s key allies and the man tasked with
   running the countrya**s secret service. They give new insight into the
   bitter battle which took place between Zumaa**s allies and those aligned
   to former President Thabo Mbeki prior to Mbekia**s ousting.

   The confidential US Embassy diplomatic cable a** titled Zuma advisor
   threatens to expose political skeletons- claims South African Secret
   Service boss Shaik, brother of convicted fraudster and Zuma funder
   Schabir, told the Americans that Zumaa**s legal team would subpoena the
   countrya**s most influential figures if he lost a bid to have corruption
   charges against him a**re-examineda**.

   The cable said he named Mbeki, the then suspended police commissioner
   Jackie Selebi, former director of Public Prosecutions Vusi Pikoli, then
   acting head of public prosecutions Mokotedi Mpshe as well as former 
   Speaker Frene Ginwala as targets.

   Shaik has refused to confirm or deny the claims.

   The cable a** one of 250 000 leaked to Whistleblower website Wikileaks but
   obtained exclusively by Media24 Investigations a** also reveals that the
   US Embassy in Pretoria actively cultivated Shaik as a key source of
   information on Zumaa**s inner circle and the a**motivations and strategies
   of the Zuma campa**.

   Dated September 10 2008, two days before corruption charges against Zuma
   were initially dismissed by Judge Chris Nicholson, the cable was sent to
   the Secretary of State in Washington DC and copied to US consuls in Durban
   and Cape Town, the CIA, the US Defence Intelligence Agency and the White
   House National Security Council.

   It is one of a number of classified cables recording meetings between
   Shaik a** who was controversially appointed head of the South African
   Secret Service (SASS), South Africaa**s foreign intelligence wing, in
   October 2009 - and an unidentified US embassy political officer.

   a**Shaik complained that all these people know Zuma is innocent and that
   he does not understand why they have not come to Zumaa**s defence before
   now,a** the cable noted.

   Shared insights

   The cable noted that a**as usuala** Shaik treated the political officer or
   a**PolOffa** as a**a friend, a child, a confidante, and an adversary all
   in the same conversationa**.

   a**He always shares insights into the motivations and strategies of the
   Zuma camp, but also expects obvious respect and gratitude for it."

   a**PolOff does not know if Shaik meets with other diplomats, but presumes
   his contact within the diplomatic circle is limited."

   a**The Australian High Commissioner mentioned he had met Shaik once
   before...and Shaik admitted he spoke to the Norwegians but did not say if
   this was on a regular or one-time basis.a**

   The cable notes that Shaik a**used to meet with the French, but cut them
   off after a French diplomat insulted him immediately before the ANC
   conference at Polokwanea**.

   Ousting Mbeki

   The political officer reported that the Irish ambassador had approached
   her to arrange a meeting with Shaik after seeing her and Shaik in a
   restaurant together, a**but Shaik refused, telling PolOff she should guard
   her contacts more closelya**.

   A source familiar with Shaika**s interaction with the US diplomats claimed
   this week that Shaik had been tasked with winning diplomats over to the
   idea of a Zuma presidency.

   An earlier confidential cable, dated May 16 2008 speculated a** after a
   meeting with Shaik a** that the a**Zuma camp may be looking to oust
   Mbekia**.

   In a cable, dated June 4 2009, that focused on President Zumaa**s new
   cabinet, Shaik is said to have described the appointments of various
   presidential advisers, among them Collins Chabane a** now minister in the
   presidency for performance monitoring, Ayanda Dlodlo a** now deputy
   minister of public service and administration, Mandisi Mpahlwa a** now
   envoy to Moscow, Lindiwe Zulu, Zumaa**s international affairs advisor and
   Bonisiwe Makhene as concessions to a**keep them quieta**.

   No comment

   Contacted this week, Shaik said: a**I will neither confirm nor deny that
   we had discussions with the Americans on these matters and I will
   definitely make no comment about the accuracy of those reports. The
   Americans must deal with accuracy.a**

   US embassy spokesperson Elizabeth Kennedy-Trudeau said the embassy would
   not confirm or comment on the contents or veracity of a**stolen
   documentsa**.

   a**The nature of cables in themselves is that these are one persona**s
   interpretation of a meeting, not official US public policy. The
   circumstances, because of the very nature of spot reporting are open to
   interpretation.a**
</description>
    <date>2011-01-24 17:06:08</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5041709_re-wikileaks-exposes-sa-spy-boss-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mark.schroeder@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>nhtaylor1998@yahoo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5042962</id>
    <title>Re: hello from Stratfor, thoughts on Cote d'Ivoire
</title>
    <description>dear Mark Schroeder,

Thank you for your note and invitation to dialogue. Let's begin by looking 
back at two articles I wrote in the early stages of the conflict in Côte 
d'Ivoire, when rebel forces attacked the legitimate government from the 
North. The current dispute over the presidential elections is the 
continuation of that clash. The Sarkozy government is not going to defend 
Ouattara with anything stronger than words. As I said in my message to 
Courtenay Weldon, the forces backing Ouattara are not European, even if 
France joins the "international community" in declaring that Ouattara won 
the election. Chirac's animosity towards Laurent Gbagbo has carried over 
into the current government but I suspect it is coming from the Quai 
d'Orsay, not from the president.

cordially,

Nidra Poller



FRANCE ON AN IVORY COASTER

Qu'est-ce que c'est que cette histoire ?  France, the France of Jacques 
Chirac, chief of the peacemakers, is in a mano a mano fight with Laurent 
Gbagbo, democratically elected president of Côte d'Ivoire.  The feud has 
been brewing for years.   And I couldn't help siding with Gbagbo 
(Yamoussoukro mon amour, www.menapress.com February 2003).   because we hung 
around together in the old days when he dressed in turtle neck sweaters and 
hid out from the wrath of Houphoët-Boigny, l'homme providentiel, the kind of 
stable leader favored by entrenched French interests.

So what's going on now and what does it have to do with turmoil in the 
Middle East?

There is something more satisfying than belly laughing to see the French 
army firing into angry crowds.  Use of excessive force, remember?  There is 
something nobler than gloating at the gloaters.  Whatever privileges they 
may have enjoyed in the waning years of neo-colonialism, the French people 
living in Côte d'Ivoire don't deserve to be stripped clean of all their 
belongings, beaten up, scared to death, and chased away like rats.  There is 
much to be learned from this upshot of a situation that curiously mirrors 
the issues involved in the ever widening French-American rift.

The Côte d'Ivoire fiasco is not an exotic anecdote, it is the underside of 
the lofty scolding aimed at America and Israel, France's arch enemies.  We 
have been told that 9/11 was our fault, the Al Aqsa intifada was our fault, 
the suicide-homicide bombings are just what the Israelis ordered, the war in 
Iraq is a scandalous exploit in neo-neo-colonialism, the quagmire is our 
fault and well-deserved.  We have been accused of not respecting 
international law, the Geneva Convention, the rights of man, and the rules 
of etiquette.

What are we really guilty of in those Gallic eyes?  Manque de savoir faire? 
No.  Something worse.  We are guilty of not being French.  And, not being 
French, of not letting the French run the show.

Now here's a show that's all for the show-offs and look at what they've 
done.  A real brawl, mayhem, mass exodus, a nasty mess.  The French base on 
the "zone of confidence" line that divided the country was bombed and nine 
soldiers killed; the French lashed out, destroying all of President Gbagbo's 
planes; this riled up the population, the population turned its fury on 
French residents, the French sent in reinforcements, shot into crowds, 
killing and wounding civilians.and now they are cutting and running.  Isn't 
that a sorry sight?

But shame and defeat do not put an end to pontificating.  The ultimate aim, 
we are told, is to restore order, get back to the negotiating table, and 
force everyone to really truly apply les Accords de Marcoussis, a model 
French peace agreement.  When armed rebels attempted a coup d'état in 2002, 
France cheated on its treaty obligations to defend the democratically 
elected government and instead pressured Laurent Gbagbo to make concessions 
to the rebels.  The rebels took control in the north, the country was 
divided, the atmosphere degenerated, the economy deteriorated and French 
public opinion was kept in the dark while attention was focused on the 
misdeeds of Bush and Sharon.  From time to time a stingy piece of news, 
twisted to serve the interests of the Quai d'Orsay, was dropped on the 
wires. The rebels were called the ex-rebels, even as they threatened to 
march on Abidjan.  Then they became les Forces nouvelles.  Aint that neat? 
The New Forces.  A breath of fresh air from the North.  African journalists 
were reporting that Ghadafi was behind the rebellion.  A bit of Islam to 
spice up les Forces Nouvelles.  Obviously they weren't financed by Burkina 
Fasso, one of the poorest countries in Africa.

Guillaume Soro, the rebel chief, was interviewed with the same exaggerated 
respect French journalists extend to Hamas leaders.  He spoke like an 
imbecile or a crackhead or both but that didn't put a pinch in his 
reputation.  Everything had to be symmetrical:  Nobody knew how to pronounce 
Laurent's name (it's Babo, not Gebagebo), no one knew he was a historian and 
an author.  He was the bad guy and the rebel chief had to be treated like he 
just stepped out of the Sorbonne.

But this was not enough to keep the peace.  January 2003: enter the famous 
Accords de Marcoussis.  That's the French touch in diplomacy.  Conflict must 
be solved ceremoniously in the gold encrusted salons of pompous government 
mansions in Paris or, in the case of Marcoussis, in magnificent châteaux. 
(You see why Camp David had to fail?)  Photo ops from beginning to end. 
Smiles with clothespins at each corner.  Fancy cars driving up, pulling 
away.  A semblance of discussion and, under the table, a harsh settlement 
imposed by the one with the upper hand.

Les Accords de Marcoussis were a bitter pill that no self-respecting 
president could swallow.  Whatever legitimate grievances may be stirring in 
the heart of Ivorian society, they could not be solved by bringing the 
rebels into the government.  That's not a peace agreement, it's a coup d'état. 
And that's what was pushed down Gbagbo's throat: not only was he forced to 
agree to bring the rebels into his government, he had to give them the two 
ministries of armed force--Defense and the Interior.

Sound familiar?  This is the same diplomacy that insists on including Hamas, 
Hizbullah and other terrorist organizations in Israel-Palestine peace talks 
and eventual Palestinian governments.  This is the wannabe world power that 
wants to invite the Iraqi "résistants" to the international conference on 
the future of Iraq.  This is the reasoning behind the peace movements that 
were all the rage in the spring of 2003.  What do you do with bullies?  Make 
them chief of police!

Today, when French politics is steeped in unseemly passions and truth is 
eaten away by the acid of hatred, government and media work hand in hand to 
assassinate their chosen prey. George W. Bush and Ariel Sharon can't be 
shaken by the vicious hatred poured over their heads.  Even Tony Blair 
resists.  But Laurent Gbagbo is African.  When he made a last ditch effort 
to reunite his divided country it triggered an explosion of acting-out that 
reveals the hypocrisy of French peace mongering.

Under the terms of the Marcoussis Road Map, the rebels were supposed to 
disarm.  It didn't happen.  Gbagbo's air force attacked their stronghold. 
And the next day-willfully or accidentally-bombed a French airbase, killing 
9 soldiers and wounding dozens.  Hell hath no fury.

Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin (quoted in Le Monde 10 November 2004) 
declared: you don't kill French soldiers without expecting instant 
retaliation.  Ah bon?  I thought Israel was wrong and damned and doomed 
because its soldiers fired when fired upon.  And the United States with that 
haw-ri-bul cowboy, thinking that a few thousand 9/11 deaths could excuse a 
wild adventure in Afghanistan and a sandy Vietnam in Iraq?  The jihadis 
shouldn't expect instant retaliation?  As for the French civilians now 
escaping with their lives, the PM explains that they are leaving 
voluntarily.

Which doesn't mean that crazed mobs wielding machetes are to be admired. 
Neither are murderous shebabs.  Or jihadi beheaders.  And, come to think of 
it, comatose terrorists pompously received as heads of state.

However, this mayhem could be put to a good cause if the sight of the 
Ivorian population bearing down on the last remnants of French interests in 
Africa could break down the wall of rhetoric that imprisons French society. 
According to Ivorian sources 64 demonstrators were killed and over a 
thousand wounded in Abidjan in the past few days.  How were these 
demonstrators killed?  By whom?  French media report the casualty toll with 
disembodied indifference.  The first casualties of the so-called al Aqsa 
Intifada died repeatedly, grotesquely, bloodily in the French press.  Their 
death lived and breathed for days, for months, to this day.  The dead and 
injured Palestinian rioters of the year 2000 were brandished to justify 
atrocities against Israeli civilians.  They justified the refusal of the 
late Arafat to negotiate, to clamp down on terrorists, to stop financing 
terrorist attacks.

French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier calls the destruction of the 
lilliputian Ivorian air force "self defense."  When the IDF destroys the 
home of a suicide-homicide bomber, they are accused of war crimes and worse. 
This is the Michel Barnier who insisted on visiting Yasser Arafat on his 
first visit to the Middle East as FM.  He made a second trip to see Ariel 
Sharon and declare that Israel must negotiate with Yasser Arafat, the 
legitimate leader of the Palestinian people; there can be no peace without 
negotiation, no negotiation without Yasser Arafat.

This is the true face of a French government that was willing to play along 
with the half-dazed half-Islamic rebels who threatened to overthrow the 
Ivorian government, and now shoots at the enraged Ivorians revolting against 
the last remnants of what they call the French Occupation.  These are the 
methods of a French government that has practically cut its ties with the 
United States--accused of pushing its weight around in the Middle East--and 
prefers to cut deals with knife wielders wrapped in keffieh.

As dazed French citizens fleeing the Ivory Coast landed at Roissy airport 
with nothing but the clothes on their backs, the terrorist Yasser Arafat was 
given a royal sendoff at Villacoublay.  Is it any wonder that the 
nationalists in Abidjan waved the Star Spangled Banner?  And the frenzied 
masses crowded into the Mouqata for the burial of the arch-terrorist 
brandished, side by side with the Palestinian, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad 
flags, the flag of la République française.

C'est la honte.



12 November 2004

Nidra Poller



Metula News

Agency ©



La Mena est une agence d'analyse, de ré-information et de reportage de 
proximité

Copyright © 2002 Metula News Agency - Nouvel en-tête - Informations utiles 
en fin d'article



Pour que vos commentaires et réactions soient lisibles par tous, 
exprimez-les sur le forum de la Ména, http://www.menapress.com/forum.php



Yamoussoukro mon amour ! (info # 011202/3)

Par Nidra Poller à Paris© Metula News Agency



J'ai des liens affectifs avec la Côte d'Ivoire. Une histoire d'amour déçu. 
Je connais personnellement le président actuel de la Côte d'Ivoire, Laurent 
Gbagbo. Voici d'ailleurs un scoop : son nom se dit tout simplement « Babo. » 
Les « g » ne se prononcent pas en Côte d'Ivoire et le fait qu'aucun 
journaliste français n'a fait l'effort de cueillir ce petit brin d'information 
en dit long sur l'état de nos médias. Il en sera question ici, de l'état de 
nos médias et de la médiatisation des faits et gestes de l'Etat français 
face à cette crise majeure dans un pays africain, où sont installés quelques 
16 000 Français, que personne n'a pensé à qualifier de colons. C'est l'occasion 
d'assister, en temps réel, à une démonstration exemplaire de la finesse 
française adaptée à l'exercice de la politique internationale et, d'après ce 
qu'on voudrait nous faire croire ici, il s'agirait d'un savoir-faire 
cruellement déficient chez les Américains.



Je devrais dire j'ai connu Laurent Gbagbo car je n'ai pas fait copain-copine 
avec le Président.  C'est Laurent, le professeur d'histoire, col roulé, mal 
rasé, coiffé en afro indiscipliné, la voix rouée de tristesse, que j'ai 
connu au début des années 80. Obligé de fuir son pays, comme tant d'intellectuels 
africains menacés de mort pour avoir exprimé une opinion. N'importe quelle 
opinion, d'ailleurs ! Les présidents à vie des indépendances ne souffraient 
alors aucune expression d'opinion. Pour ne pas se fatiguer à faire le tri 
entre les bonnes, les moyennes et les mauvaises, ils les exorcisaient 
toutes. Il faut savoir canaliser les énergies si on veut vivre longtemps en 
demeurant président en Afrique ! Laurent, professeur, auteur et un peu homme 
politique dans une opposition qui n'existait pas, vivait un exil ingrat, ici 
à Paris, car figurez-vous, les droits de l'hommistes ne se souciaient guère 
des victimes de Houphouët-Boigny. On leur disait : « la Côte d'Ivoire ce n'est 
pas la Guinée-Sekou Touré voyons ! »  Un peu comme on nous dit maintenant qu'une 
poignée de synagogues brûlées ne fait pas une Kristallnacht.



Je naviguais alors dans ces eaux africaines, antillaises, noir américaines, 
je côtoyais des musiciens et des écrivains célèbres, ratés, ou prometteurs, 
je partageais les peines et les joies de mes amis noirs, en leur laissant l'exclusivité 
du temps de parole afin qu'ils expriment leurs doléances et autres 
énumérations de droits bafoués.



Le meilleur, le plus fin, le plus élégant et intelligent, le plus 
authentique, le plus traditionnel, le plus moderne, c'était NXE.  Ce 
journaliste, brillant, dont la carrière exceptionnelle fut brisée par la 
colère du Grand Chef, a fini par rentrer en Afrique. par amour pour sa 
terre, disait-il, et parce qu'il ne supportait pas le racisme français, et 
encore parce que nos médias français - les mêmes qui assassinent aujourd'hui 
mon identité juive au nom des damnés de la terre - n'avaient pas de place 
pour un génie ivoirien. Je pourrais donner des noms mais il vaut mieux ne 
pas exciter les vipères à l'heure qu'il est. C'est par NXE que j'ai connu 
Laurent Gbagbo. Chacun à son tour, confiné dans exil imposé, puis rentré en 
Côte d'Ivoire, avec la différence que NXE est mort dans un accident de 
voiture à l'africaine et Laurent est encore président.



Je l'ai croisé un jour, Laurent, à l'aéroport de Roissy, en costume de 
dignitaire à fines rayures blanches, rasé de près, les cheveux rentrés dans 
l'ordre, la silhouette affinée, le même sourire attendrissant, innocent.  On 
commençait à parler de lui comme leader d'un parti qui compte, il a adhéré, 
si je ne me trompe, à l'un de ces gouvernements douteux de la période 
trouble. Je suivais sa carrière, de loin, sans pouvoir juger du bien fondé 
de la déception ressentie par nos amis d'autrefois: les intellectuels sont 
rarement contents quand leurs pairs sont au pouvoir !



La première Guerre du Golfe a bouleversé mon paysage social. Mon African 
connection n'y a résisté que partiellement. Je restais pourtant à me faire 
des soucis pour mes amis, à l'époque où la Côte d'Ivoire semblait tomber 
dans une spirale de coups d'Etat, suivant vaguement le contentieux avec 
Alissane Ouattera, mais mon attention se focalisait de plus en plus sur une 
question que j'avais crue réglée une fois pour toutes en Europe : la 
question juive.



Et l'Afrique, que j'ai tant aimée, jalouse de mes autres préoccupations, s'est 
réveillée en me donnant des gifles. Durban, certainement, mais aussi le 
soutien quasi-unanime pour les thèses radicalement antisionistes de la part 
des journalistes, notables, intellectuels, étudiants, reçus désormais à bras 
ouverts par les mêmes médias qui ne voulaient pas de NXE. Aujourd'hui les 
Africains hurlent avec les loups et mes amis africains n'ont pas un mot, pas 
une pensée pour moi. Ni la montée de l'antisémitisme, ni les attentats du 11 
septembre n'ont provoqué la moindre manifestation de leur part. Preuve que 
je n'existais pas pour eux comme juive ou comme américaine mais uniquement 
comme sympathisante de leur cause.



Et voilà, qu'à quelques semaines de l'opération militaire en Iraq, le 
conflit en Côte d'Ivoire nous offre une démonstration inouïe de la mise en 
ouvre de la politique internationale française. Exemple éblouissant s'il en 
fut ! Comme d'habitude, c'est par la radio que je prends le pouls de la 
République.



Les rebelles prennent les armes, il y a des accrochages, l'armée française 
débarque, décrète le cessez le feu, se positionne sur la ligne de 
démarcation, alors je dresse l'oreille. On tend la micro au chef des 
rebelles, on colporte des rumeurs de fosses communes, des mercenaires venus 
prêter mains fortes aux loyalistes, et surtout, on empêche le gouvernement 
élu du président, mon ami Laurent Gbagbo, d'avancer pour écraser la 
rébellion. J'apprends, lors d'une émission de la presse africaine sur RFI, 
que la rébellion est soutenue par Khadafi, les pourparlers de paix à Lomé c'est 
Khadafi qui en est l'architecte et le propriétaire de l'hôtel où ils se 
déroulent, c'est, vous l'aurez deviné, lecteurs avisés de la Ména, encore 
Khadafi. En dehors de ces vérités qui nous parviennent par bribes, on n'a 
droit qu'à une version épurée des informations sur le conflit. (La relation 
des événements de Côte d'Ivoire, telle qu'elle est proposée par les médias 
audiovisuels français est absolument et volontairement inintelligible Ndlr.)



La position française est claire : non à la guerre !  Il faut régler le 
conflit par la négociation (et je me dis que les rebelles, pendant ce temps, 
s'installent, le pays est divisé, les armes et les guerriers peuvent s'infiltrer 
tranquillement.). Malgré le tout Khadafi, malgré le CDAO et les chefs d'Etats 
plus sages les uns que les autres, les pourparlers sont bloqués. Les troupes 
de Laurent font un pas de côté, les autorités françaises tapent sur les 
doigts des loyalistes. Un nouveau vocabulaire médiatique ad hoc se met en 
place. Le président élu, l'Etat souverain, la démocratie même disparaissent 
pour laisser place à un conflit entre rebelles et loyalistes. Deux 
communautés qui s'affrontent quoi ! Chacun a ses raisons, la France a 
toujours raison et l'enchaînement se termine par une invitation au Château.



Vous connaissez la partition. Il faut retourner à la table des négociations, 
ne pas envenimer la situation en ripostant aux attaques avec force - 
excessive, par définition -, la communauté internationale doit intervenir. 
Une conférence internationale -à Paris of course- s'impose ! Laurent ne peut 
pas faire comme Arik. Il doit accepter l'invitation et j'ai de la peine pour 
lui.  J'aimerais l'inviter à dîner comme autrefois mais je sais qu'on ne le 
laisserait pas quitter le château. Les dépêches tombent en langue de bois 
intégrale : tout se passe à merveille à Marcoussis, le problème est en gros 
réglé, restent quelques détails et à mettre le champagne au frais. Les 
rebelles sont devenus les forces nouvelles. Et pourquoi pas, si le Hezbollah 
est bien, pour la France, un important organisme de bienfaisance ! Des 
forces nouvelles contre les loyalistes, tiens, on sera presque tenté de 
choisir les premiers, loyalistes ça fait un peu vieux jeu, non ?



Des dépêches dégoulinantes de complaisance tombent et se suivent. Un petit 
contrecoup cependant, le président de l'assemblée ivoirienne quitte le 
château en claquant la porte. Surprenante anicroche, alors qu'officiellement 
tout s'arrange pour le mieux : on parle d'un gouvernement d'union nationale, 
d' élections anticipées et d'autres raffinements du même genre. La carte de 
séjour est supprimée, les lois foncières réécrites. Je ne nie pas qu'il 
existe des vrais problèmes sous-jacents, des injustices faites aux 
Burkinabés et tout le reste. mais le Burkina Fasso prend de drôles de 
positions de nos jours et tout cela commence à nous rappeler la situation 
nigériane.



On attend Kofi Annan, on attend le président Gebagebo, des chefs d'Etat 
divers, la photo sur le parvis.  Les trompettes sonnent à tous vents. Sur 
RFI, c'est tout juste si on n'annonce pas en toutes lettres le pied de nez à 
Bush : nya nya nya tu vois, péquenot-cowboy, c'est comme ça qu'on fait de la 
vraie diplomatie !



Soudain le centre de gravité passe de Marcoussis à Kléber, où l'on apprend 
que Laurent a été dépouillé de tout sauf son nom écorché. On lui impose un 
Premier ministre rebelle, la France attribue les ministères de la défense et 
de l'intérieur aux forces nouvelles, tout le reste, tout ce qui compte, à 
son opposition et on lui laisse les caisses vides et l'armée démilitarisée. 
Les forces nouvelles, interviewées comme elles le méritent, annoncent qu'elle 
viendront nombreuses avec armes et bagages protéger leur ministres à 
Abidjan. Il y a justement un peu de grabuge à Abidjan, on se demande 
pourquoi, et on essaie de faire croire que Laurent a sauté le déjeuner pour 
sauter plutôt dans un avion afin de calmer les esprits et de commencer au 
plus vite sa nouvelle vie.



Je me demande, quant à moi, s'il ne s'est pas sauvé encore une fois pour s'éloigner 
d'un tyran en colère ?



A présent on essaie de le finir. Tantôt en le sommant solennellement de se 
prononcer clairement pour la réconciliation et de mettre en place le nouveau 
gouvernement, tantôt en lui envoyant des flèches empoisonnées. Qui sait ici 
que Laurent Gebagebo est l'auteur de Côte d'Ivoire : économie et société à 
la veille de l'indépendance (1940-1960), Côte d'Ivoire : pour une 
alternative démocratique, Soundjata, Lion du Manding ?  Entre temps, si je 
comprends bien, il n'a plus d'armée. Leçon à méditer. J'ai appris par une 
source fiable, qu'une publicité parue dans le Washington Post, quelques 
jours après la signature des accords (désaccords ?) de Marcoussis, supplie 
les Américains d'intervenir et de protéger le gouvernement légitime. J'ai 
perdu mon souffle en entendant que mon gouvernement  s'est prononcé en 
faveur de leur application. Mais ouf ! Le commis chargé des affaires 
africaines à Washington a enfin réussi à joindre le chef, le tir est 
rectifié, les Américains demandent maintenant la renégociation de l'accord.



Justement, boys, ne voyez-vous pas que cette histoire est une affaire en or 
? La France, qui fait la danse du ventre sur la scène internationale, priant 
clémence et miséricorde envers le misérable Saddam Hussein, la France qui 
gronde et qui tonne qu'il ne faut rien régler par la force des armes et qu'on 
peut tout régler dans la paix du seigneur en se mettant autour d'une table ; 
la France qui ne touchera à une goutte de pétrole sans demander la 
permission de l'ONU ! Cette même France, qui transforme des bandes armées en 
forces nouvelles et leur donne la moitié d'un pays et les moyens de prendre 
l'autre moitié, pour les récompenser d'avoir pris les armes et attaqué l'Etat 
de droit.  Des mommas manifestant dans la rue à Abidjan le disent avec leur 
accent de Treichville : « aucun gouvernement accepte ça. »



Et la France, paisible, pacifiste et faiseuse de paix, que fait-elle quand 
des bandes armées de pierres de gourdins et de machettes  s'attaquent à ses 
citoyens en Côte d'Ivoire, pillent leurs maisons, les malmènent, les 
menacent ?  Elle fait, mes chers lecteurs, le silence radio.  Vous avez 
droit à des directs de Jalalabad du matin au soir, quand des enragés d'Allah 
promettent de brûler des Américains par milliers, aux nanas-journalistes, 
qui répercuter les cris de guerre des shahidin en herbe lors des fêtes du 
Hamas, mais les reportages d'Abidjan, pendant qu'elle vit ses heures les 
plus dures, sont d'une rareté extrême, je dirais même,  d'une insuffisance 
impudique.



Air France a doublé ses vols journaliers en provenance d'Abidjan : deux à la 
place d'un.  Le prix aussi a doublé ! La France n'a pas les moyens d'évacuer 
16 000 ressortissants si jamais le besoin s'en faisait sentir. A leur place, 
j'aurais encore plus peur de l'arrivée des forces nouvelles que des 
agissements des patriotes. Et Laurent, que va-t-il faire sans armée pour 
défendre son pays ? On ne le dit pas trop souvent, mieux vaut, semble-t-il, 
être conspué pour l'utilisation de force excessive que démoli par manque de 
force adéquate.



J'espère que ça ne se terminera pas ainsi, en flash-back et certainement pas 
en bain de sang. Il doit rester quelques divisions de Marines à dispatcher 
en Côte d'Ivoire, en attendant la nouvelle résolution du Conseil de 
Sécurité. Qu'ils viennent, qu'ils renvoient les forces nouvelles à leur 
expéditeur, qu'ils parlent avec Laurent d'homme à homme : Hé mon frère, tu 
ne peux décidément pas frapper ces Burkinabés sur la tête, essayons de 
régler ce problème en frères ! Mais d'abord il reste des fesses à botter. Ce 
ne seront pas les rebelles de Kadhafi qui vont te faire des misères, Babo !













Nidra Poller
nidrapol@gmail.com 
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    <date>2011-01-28 17:40:36</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5044499</id>
    <title>Re: [Africa] Nigeria - Nigeria frees Halliburton staff	as	probe	continues
</title>
    <description>   this case has been dragging on. Halliburton has pled guilty to bribery,
   but they may not yet have paid the fines, and this could be a way to get
   them to cough up. They can also be a mix of Nigerian personal grudges
   going on to complicate this, but these fines are big money that someone is
   counting on.

   On 11/29/10 8:11 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     just a quick sweep of OS indicates that the case is still ongoing; these
     recent raids (which sounded pretty intense) led to the brief arrest of
     12 people in total, 2 of whom did not work for Halliburton -- mixture of
     expats and Nigerians

     Halliburton is saying "that was not us; that was KBR," which only split
     from Halliburton in 2007, after the alleged bribe payments were made

     don't know of any deeper meaning behind this off the top of my head; am
     not very educated on the details of the Halliburton case. if this is a
     client priority, let me know, and i will devote some time to it today

     Nigeria detains 12 in U.S. firm bribery case

     By Nick Tattersall and Anna Driver, Reuters

     Last Updated: November 28, 2010 1:48am

     http://www.torontosun.com/news/world/2010/11/28/16349001.html

     LAGOS - Nigeria's anti-corruption police have raided the offices of the
     U.S. oilfield services group Halliburton and arrested 12 people in a
     bribery case involving the former Halliburton unit KBR Inc, a spokesman
     said on Saturday.
     The U.S. firm said the detentions, carried out on Thursday, had no legal
     basis and that its employees had since been freed.

     The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) said it had detained
     10 Halliburton staff for questioning and one senior employee each from
     oil services firms Saipem Contracting Nigeria Ltd and Technip Offshore
     Nigeria Ltd.

     Eni, Saipem's parent company, declined to comment.
     "We are still looking for the (local) managing director of Halliburton,"
     EFCC spokesman Femi Babafemi said.
     Those detained in the raid, carried out with the assistance of armed
     police, included Giuseppe Surace, believed to be Saipem's country
     manager, and Frank Pliya from Technip, as well as a mixture of
     expatriates and Nigerians, Babafemi said.

     Halliburton said in a statement that its employees were not connected
     with the case, and that they had all subsequently been released.

     "Nigerian authorities entered the offices of Halliburton in Lagos,
     ransacked the property, assaulted personnel and took a number of
     non-managerial employees into custody ... this action had no legal
     basis," its statement said.

     Houston-based engineering firm KBR pleaded guilty last year to U.S.
     charges that it paid $180 million in bribes between 1994 and 2004 to
     Nigerian officials to secure $6 billion in contracts for the Bonny
     Island liquefied natural gas (LNG) project.

     KBR and Halliburton reached a $579 million settlement in the United
     States but Nigeria, France and Switzerland have conducted their own
     investigations into the case.
     KBR split from Halliburton in 2007.

     "The Halliburton oil field services operations in Nigeria have never in
     any way been any part of the LNG project, and none of the Halliburton
     employees have ever had any connection to or participation in that
     project," Halliburton said.

     A former aide to Nigerian ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo pleaded not
     guilty in October to six counts of money laundering in relation to the
     case between 2002-2003, including accepting $1.5 million in bribes.

     His case was adjourned to Dec. 16.

     EFCC raids Halliburton office in Lagos
     By Ifedayo Adebayo and Olugbenro Adeoye

     November 26, 2010 02:13AM

     http://234next.com/csp/cms/sites/Next/News/Metro/Crime/5646736-146/efcc_raids_halliburton_office_in_lagos.csp

     Operatives of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission Thursday
     afternoon conducted a raid on the Lagos office of Halliburton, Technip
     and Snamprogetti and officials (mostly expatriates) were arrested.

     During the raid which was backed by a contingent of armed policemen,
     officials of the companies said EFCC officials ransacked their offices
     and pushed the staff around before taking away documents and some
     officials of the company.
     Speaking to our reporter, Femi Babafemi, the commissions' spokesperson,
     said the raid was the result of new discoveries and the latest
     development in its investigation of the American oil services firm's
     alleged corrupt practices.

     "I don't have the details yet, but I know that three MD's of Technip and
     Halliburton, three of them were arrested," Mr Babafemi said.

     Halliburton has been sanctioned in the UN for its role in a
     multi-billion dollar scandal involving the Nigerian Liquified Gas
     industry. As NEXT reported in past editions, at least three former
     presidents, Sani Abacha, Abdusalami Abubakar and Olusegun Obasanjo were
     implicated as recipients of bribes from American and European
     contractors retained to build Africa's first liquefied natural gas plant
     in Bonny, Rivers State by US law enforcement officials.
     Yesterday's raid, according to Mr. Babafemi, is related to the ongoing
     case.

     "It is the same Halliburton case. We just go back into the case based on
     fresh information that we have," he said.

     Eye witnesses of the EFCC action said the anti-graft officials, who
     arrived at the company's premises around 10 am, blocked both ends of the
     Younis Bashorun Street where the company is located.

     The officials, who numbered be eight, came in two vehicles containing
     EFCC officials and police officers.

     Like a robbery
     They were, however, criticised for the manner of operation, which was
     likened to an "armed-robbery attack in broad daylight." An early text
     message to NEXT warned of a robbery attack on the company's premises.
     A trader, who identified himself as Musa, said: "E be like say we dey
     watch film; we just dey hear noise and we see them as dem dey beat some
     of the workers, and later dem dey push dem inside motor by force."

     A company staff also alleged that anti-graft officials physically
     assaulted them.

     One of the company's security officers on duty, who pleaded anonymity,
     said: "They were wearing red jackets, but they did not introduce
     themselves to us. When they came, they ordered all of the security men
     to enter inside and they said we should drop our phones. One of us was
     beaten mercilessly for asking them questions. Another one, they said he
     wasted their time by not giving them his phone on time. That was his
     crime. They beat him seriously." A senior official of the company, who
     also spoke on condition of anonymity, described the experience as
     "unfortunate." "There is nothing wrong in making an arrest, but it must
     be done properly," he said, while narrating his experience. "They only
     came in to harass and assault us; they were beating people up, including
     the women. The arrests were made randomly, because they did not bother
     to ask for any names, apart from the Managing Director, who was not in.
     It was like a robbery operation; some of the staff who did not know
     initially that they were EFCC officials hid themselves in the toilet for
     over an hour. We all thought they were a bunch of militants. There was a
     lot of confusion in the place. They were wielding their guns and
     everyone was afraid; it was so disgusting."a

     FG strikes deal with Siemens to withdraw charges
     By Gowon Emakpe

     November 23, 2010 01:31AM

     http://234next.com/csp/cms/sites/Next/Home/5645312-146/fg_strikes_deal_with_siemens_to.csp
     In a deal similar to one initiated with the international companies
     involved in the Halliburton bribery scandal, the federal government
     yesterday withdrew bribery charges against Siemens transnational
     corporation.

     Attorney General of the federation and Minister of Justice, Mohammed
     Adoke, told a press conference that the government's decision to
     discontinue the criminal prosecution against the multinational
     telecommunications giant was borne out of the company's sober expression
     of regret and its undertaking to be of good conduct in all its future
     business dealings in the country.
     The company also agreed to pay a fine of N7 billion [~$46 million],
     three times the amount of bribes it was accused of giving, and promised
     to put in place a committee comprising of two nominees of the federal
     government, to monitor its activities.

     "The heavy fines that have been imposed on Siemens, apart from the
     deterrence effect, will go a long way in financing infrastructural
     delivery in the country," Mr. Adoke said.

     "I appreciate the yearnings of some Nigerians for jail sentences to be
     imposed on those who contribute to the economic adversity of the country
     by way of corrupt practices, but the restitution that has been done in
     the case of Siemens is important in the overall process of redeeming the
     image of the country," he added.
     In September, the federal government said it had dropped criminal
     charges against construction giant, Julius Berger Plc, and its staff
     that were charged, along with Adeyanju Bodunde, a special assistant to
     former president Olusegun Obasanjo, for complicity in the $180 million
     Halliburton bribery scandal.

     Case continues

     Consequently, Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), which was
     supposed to arraign the suspects before Justice Danlami Senchi at an
     Abuja High Court on an amended 35-count charge yesterday, removed the
     company from its list of suspects in the case.

     The remaining accused persons, former executive director `of the Power
     Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN), Maigada Shuaibu; former permanent
     secretary of the ministry of power and steel, Mahmood Sadiq Mohammed;
     former Nigeria Telecommunications (NITEL) general manager of finance,
     Emmanuel Chukwuemeka Ossai; and former MTEL managing director, Edwin
     Moore Momife, had asked for more time to enable them look at the EFCC's
     charges against them.

     The suspects will, therefore, appear before Justice Senchi on Tuesday to
     answer to the new 18-count charges against them.

     In 2002, the accused persons were accused of conspiring with Siemens to
     accept valuable things and sponsoring themselves and their relations to
     trips to foreign countries.

     On 11/29/10 7:12 AM, Anya Alfano wrote:

       Do we have any information on why they chose to detain the Halliburton
       staff now, so many years after the fact?  Are they trying to move
       forward with the case again, or is there something else at work?

       -------- Original Message --------

        Subject: [OS] NIGERIA/GV/CT - Nigeria frees Halliburton staff as      
                 probe continues                                              
           Date: Mon, 29 Nov 2010 06:36:48 -0600                              
           From: Clint Richards &lt;clint.richards@stratfor.com&gt;                 
       Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                
             To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                

       Nigeria frees Halliburton staff as probe continues

       http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFJOE6AS0A820101129?sp=true

       Mon Nov 29, 2010 11:45am GMT

       ABUJA (Reuters) - Nigeria's anti-corruption police said on Monday
       employees of U.S. oilfield services group Halliburton arrested last
       week in a bribery case have been freed, but must stay in the country
       pending further investigations.

       The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) detained 10
       Nigerian and expatriate Halliburton staff for questioning as well as
       one senior employee each from oil firms Saipem Contracting Nigeria Ltd
       and Technip Offshore Nigeria Ltd.

       The arrests relate to a bribery case involving the U.S. firm's former
       unit KBR. The companies split in 2007 and Halliburton has said it is
       not connected with the case.

       A spokesman for the EFCC said the detainees, taken into custody on
       Thursday, had been released because under law they could not be held
       for more than two days, but said they would remain in Nigeria until
       investigations had been completed.

       "We can't keep them for more than 48 hours. Their travel documents
       have been detained pending the investigation ... they cannot leave the
       country," EFCC spokesman Femi Babafemi said.

       Houston-based engineering firm KBR pleaded guilty last year to U.S.
       charges that it paid $180 million in bribes between 1994 and 2004 to
       Nigerian officials to secure $6 billion in contracts for the Bonny
       Island liquefied natural gas (LNG) project.

       KBR and Halliburton reached a $579 million settlement in the United
       States but Nigeria, France and Switzerland have conducted their own
       investigations into the case.

       Halliburton said it was not involved in the LNG development, its
       employees have never participated in any work on the project and the
       EFCC raid last week had no legal basis.

       It said its offices were ransacked and personnel assaulted during last
       week's raid in what it described as "an affront against justice".

       "What we are doing is based on fresh information," Babafemi said. "It
       is illogical to say we acted illegally. As long as the laws of the
       country are upheld there is nothing illegal in what we are doing."

       A former aide to Nigerian ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo pleaded not
       guilty in October to six counts of money laundering in relation to the
       case between 2002-2003, including accepting $1.5 million in bribes.

       His case was adjourned to December 16.
</description>
    <date>2010-11-29 15:16:34</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5044499_re-africa-nigeria-nigeria-frees-halliburton-staff-as-probe.html</permalink>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5044727</id>
    <title>Opportunities for Russia and China in Greek Privatization
</title>
    <description>    Stratfor logo                                                             
   Opportunities for Russia and China in Greek Privatization                  
                                                                              
    June 9, 2011 | 2000 GMT                                                   
    Opportunities for Russia and China in Greek Privatization                 
    SAKIS MITROLIDIS/AFP/Getty Images                                         
    Shipping containers at the Greek port of Thessaloniki                     
    Summary                                                                   
                                                                              
    Greece's eurozone partners are demanding that Athens accelerate sales of  
    public assets and allow an independent agency, likely to be heavily       
    influenced by Germany, to lead the privatization drive. There is a risk   
    that Greece's ruling PASOK party could rebel against Prime Minister       
    George Papandreou and eurozone austerity measures. But the more           
    significant long-term issue is that Russia and China could use the        
    privatization to snatch up strategic Greek assets.                        
                                                                              
    Analysis                                                                  
                                                                              
    Greece's privatization efforts have become central for the new            
    approximately 65 billion to 70 billion euro ($94 billion to $101          
    billion) bailout package being finalized by eurozone member states and    
    expected to be approved by the June 20 eurozone finance ministers'        
    meeting. As the chief condition of the new bailout plan, Greece's         
    eurozone partners are demanding that Athens speed up its sale of          
    publicly held assets and shift the responsibility of privatization from   
    the government to an independent agency that would, sources tell          
    STRATFOR, have considerable input from foreign governments. In other      
    words, Greece needs to sell about 50 billion euros worth of public        
    assets by 2015 and on terms that satisfy Germany and other eurozone       
    countries, regardless of the preferences of the Greek state, which owns   
    the assets, or the Greek public, which depends on them for employment.    
                                                                              
    Greek privatization is a divisive issue that is threatening Prime         
    Minister George Papandreou's hold over his ruling PASOK party. There is   
    a danger PASOK could revolt against Papandreou and eurozone austerity     
    measures, putting Europe's bailout efforts into question and worsening    
    the sovereign debt crisis in Portugal and Spain. The long-term issue,     
    however, is the effect that such wide-scale privatization will have on    
    strategic Greek assets, such as ports and pipelines, which could find     
    interested investors in Russia and China, giving these powers a backdoor  
    into Europe's transportation and energy infrastructure.                   
                                                                              
     Pain of Privatization                                                    
                                                                              
    The new eurozone bailout plan has caused a political crisis in Greece.    
    The planned privatization of state enterprises means further layoffs of   
    public sector workers, and the Greek unemployment rate is already at      
    16.2 percent, more than 3 percent higher than a year ago. Employees of    
    Greek power utility PPC, telecommunication company OTE, and water         
    utilities EYDAP and EYATH have called a 24-hour strike for June 9 to      
    protest the privatization efforts, while the main private and public      
    sector unions, GSEE and ADEDY, will organize a general strike in the      
    country June 15.                                                          
                                                                              
    Privatization, under most conditions, is painful. Inefficiencies built    
    into public companies due to political logic - such as redundant          
    employment, subsidized pricing of goods and services, and wage inflation  
    - are unraveled, to the consternation of a large segment of the           
    population. Furthermore, management positions in publicly held utilities  
    and businesses are often lucrative posts, which political leaders use to  
    reward party loyalists, or are often directly funded from the revenue of  
    the public companies. Thus, the workers facing unemployment and the       
    citizens protesting higher prices for goods and services are not alone    
    in resisting privatization; political elites, who are left without        
    important sources of economic revenue and patronage, also oppose it.      
    This is why, historically, successful and thorough privatization drives   
    require a political outsider in the country to take control and use       
    privatization to evict established and entrenched elites.                 
                                                                              
    Papandreou and PASOK are not at all political outsiders. Although it was  
    out of power for five years before defeating the center-right Nea         
    Dimokratia in 2009, PASOK had led the country for 20 years beginning in   
    1974. Therefore, the greatest danger in terms of opposition to            
    privatization is not from the mounting protests and strikes on the        
    streets of Athens and other Greek cities, which are largely apolitical    
    and offer no real alternative to the ruling party, but from Papandreou's  
    own party.                                                                
                                                                              
    The events of the next few weeks will be crucial for Papandreou's         
    ability to retain control of his party. Because PASOK's popularity has    
    declined significantly, early elections would not benefit its members.    
    However, Papandreou may be able to use the prospect of being voted out    
    of office to scare dissenting members of parliament into supporting the   
    new austerity measures. This depends on a number of factors, including    
    that street protests do not become violent or get out of control, which   
    is not likely.                                                            
                                                                              
    Opportunities for Russia and China in Greek Privatization                 
    (click here to enlarge image)                                             
                                                                              
     Opportunities in Privatization                                           
                                                                              
    A painful privatization drive for Greece, however, presents               
    opportunities for others to gain assets at potentially below market       
    value. German companies are interested in a number of Greek assets,       
    which is certain to frustrate the Greeks, who see the forced              
    privatization drive as a loss of sovereignty and a plot by Berlin to      
    cheaply acquire control of potentially lucrative companies. On June 6,    
    as the new bailout agreement was being negotiated, Germany's Deutsche     
    Telekom acquired a 10 percent stake in Hellenic Telecommunications (OTE)  
    for around 400 million euros, giving the German company a 40 percent      
    stake plus one share in OTE. Athens is looking to sell another 6 percent  
    of OTE to Deutsche Telekom, but the German telecommunication company has  
    said it would invest further only if given full control over OTE's labor  
    policies, which will enable significant layoffs - another example of how  
    privatization can lead to social unrest.                                  
                                                                              
    Russian and Chinese companies also are looking to use Greek               
    privatization for geopolitical gain. For China, Greece is an interesting  
    strategic entry point into emerging markets in Central and Eastern        
    Europe. China would use the Greek ports of Piraeus and Thessaloniki to    
    bring its goods to the Balkans, former Soviet countries like Ukraine and  
    Belarus, and Central European EU states like Hungary, Slovakia and        
    Poland. Beijing's logic is that it could expand its trade in Central and  
    Eastern European countries where, considering the region's generally      
    lower income compared to Western Europe, the price point for Chinese      
    exports would be highly competitive. China Ocean Shipping Co. (COSCO)     
    made an investment in Piraeus in June 2010, leasing two container         
    terminals for 35 years at a price of around $5 billion. COSCO's interest  
    also was piqued when the Greek government announced plans to privatize    
    its entire 75 percent stake in the Piraeus port authority, and the        
    Chinese company wants to expand its investment both there and in          
    Thessaloniki.                                                             
                                                                              
    Russia is interested in using Greece to block a key European alternative  
    route for natural gas supplies. The European Union, which currently gets  
    around a quarter of its natural gas from Russia, is looking for           
    alternatives to Russian-dominated natural gas transportation pipelines.   
    At the forefront of the union's plans is the "southern gas corridor,"     
    which is essentially an amalgamation of several different projects that   
    would bring Azerbaijani and potentially Central Asian or Middle Eastern   
    natural gas into Europe via Turkey. Greece is an important component of   
    this plan since it rests on one route by which natural gas piped through  
    Turkey would enter the European Union - the other option would be to run  
    north through Bulgaria and Romania. From Greece, any proposed natural     
    gas pipelines would have to make the short jump across the Strait of      
    Otranto to Italy.                                                         
                                                                              
    Opportunities for Russia and China in Greek Privatization                 
                                                                              
    There currently are a number of proposed pipeline projects that would     
    constitute the EU southern gas corridor, of which three are central. The  
    Nabucco pipeline is supposed to take the northern route from Turkey to    
    Austria via the Balkan EU member states. Two other pipelines would take   
    the southerly route from Turkey into Greece - the proposed                
    Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) and the Interconnection                     
    Turkey-Greece-Italy (ITGI), of which the planned Poseidon offshore        
    pipeline is the underwater part from Greece to Italy.                     
                                                                              
    The Greek government is directly involved in the ITGI project through     
    its ownership of the Greek public natural gas company DEPA, which is      
    collaborating with privately held Italian natural gas company Edison.     
    The key for Russia, specifically natural gas giant Gazprom, lies in this  
    particular southern corridor project. The proposed privatization of DEPA  
    is therefore an interesting opportunity for the Kremlin. Gazprom has had  
    its eyes on ITGI for years, negotiating with DEPA in 2010 to potentially  
    gain an ownership stake in the project. The deal seems to have fallen     
    through, with Gazprom now concentrating on the Greek plan to privatize    
    DEPA - as much as 32 percent may be up for sale. This would give Moscow   
    considerable influence when decisions are made about whose natural gas    
    ITGI carries, turning ITGI from an alternative to Russian natural gas to  
    an enabler of continued Gazprom dominance of Europe's natural gas         
    market.                                                                   
                                                                              
    The key question is whether Greece's eurozone neighbors will try to       
    prevent China and Russia from gaining access to these geopolitically      
    strategic assets. It is assumed that the new privatization agency,        
    independent from Athens, would be heavily influenced by Germany since     
    Berlin is contributing the most cash for the Greek bailouts. Still, it    
    is unlikely that Berlin would look to ensure that Athens' strategic       
    assets are purchased by fellow eurozone member states and not by Russia   
    and China. Germany, an exporter of high-end, capital-intensive goods,     
    does not consider China's low-cost goods export competition, which means  
    there is no reason for Berlin to prevent Beijing's access to Eastern and  
    Central European markets. Second, Germany has a budding political         
    relationship with Russia, including a solid relationship between          
    Germany's E.ON Ruhrgas and Gazprom. It therefore is unlikely that Berlin  
    will do much to block Gazprom's designs in Greece either. Considering     
    that Germany is expected to have the greatest influence in decisions      
    made by the new privatization agency - and that Berlin's interest is      
    ultimately to get Athens to raise as much cash as possible - Berlin is    
    not likely to stand in the way of Russia and China in Greece.             
                                                                              
    Give us your thoughts                          Read comments on           
    on this report                                 other reports              
                                                                              
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    (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
</description>
    <date>2011-06-09 23:25:49</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5044727_opportunities-for-russia-and-china-in-greek-privatization-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>allstratfor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>noreply@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:stratforaustin@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5045003</id>
    <title>Humint - MOIS Assassination  - Cyprus  (more) 
</title>
    <description>   Have heard the MOIS whacked the diplomat in Cyprus in retaliation for the
   extraction of the Iranian spook from Turkey.  Fact or fiction? 
    
   xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
    
   I am told it was a suicide.  Spouse problems, etc but stabbing yourself in
   the neck is more manly than swallowing your gun.   
    
    Having been trained by you, I trust nothing as do you
</description>
    <date>2007-07-13 15:55:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-14 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5045003_humint-mois-assassination-cyprus-more-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5048191</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - CHINA/AUSTRALIA/NAMIBIA - Rio - CN65
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE: CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator.  Source is 
   well-connected politically, militarily and economically.  He has become a
   private businessman helping foreign companies with M&amp;As
   PUBLICATION: Yes but with no attribution
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2 - speculation, but he knows about the mine and the
   meetings
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

   In response to my question on whether Australian intel was involved in the
   Namibian corruption crackdown on Chinese companies:
   There could be one indicator about possible intelligence activity by
   someone goading Namibia into action, and that is the silence on Stern Hu
   by the Leader of the Opposition over the last week.  Has he perhaps had an
   intelligence briefing? But then Namibia would have to be offered something
   valuable in return for their cooperation, which the offeror would be
   capable of delivering.  What could that be and who could deliver it? Maybe
   the US, but why would the US want to go out on a limb for Stern Hu, unless
   it suits them to clip China's wings in the region anyway?
   One possibility - a better one - could be that it is neither China nor the
   US that is behind this.  Maybe this is all Rio's doing.  Rio has a 69%
   interest in the Ro:ssing Uranium mine in Namibia.  The Namibian President
   recently visited this mine on the 20th July.  (See the attached press
   release.)  The press release states, in part:

     The President of the Republic of Namibia, His Excellency
     Hifikepunye Pohamba and the First Lady Penehupifo Pohamba, visited the
     mine on Saturday morning to familiarise himself with the operations of
     the mine given its significance in the Namibian economy. His visit was a
     response to the company's invitation for him to get first hand
     experience of the company's world class operations. 

   The company also announced plans to increase production of the mine on the
   9th July.  Ro:ssing currently produces 8% world's primary uranium oxide.
    Rio is also a substantial donor to Namibia through various charitable
   foundations it runs.  I certainly think the president's visit to the mine
   is no coincidence.
   My suspicion is that Rio is doing this all on their own.  Could it be the
   people implicated in corruption were politically opposed to the President?
    That would make it a perfect deal for Rio.  Roll up Hu Jintao's son, help
   out the President politically, and put pressure on China, as well as
   leverage their donations, and the role of the Ro:ssing mine to Namibia's
   economy. 
</description>
    <date>2009-07-25 05:15:57</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5048191_insight-china-australia-namibia-rio-cn65-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5048229</id>
    <title>Re: keeping in touch from Stratfor
</title>
    <description>   Dear Steve:

   Thanks for the heads-up from Guinea. Keep well.

   My best,

   --Mark

   On 3/10/11 2:18 AM, timber wolf wrote:

     Hello Mark,
      
     AQIM is always on the periphery but very little, if any evidence of
     activity in Guinea just now.
      
     Steve
      
     &gt; Date: Wed, 9 Mar 2011 11:37:36 -0600
     &gt; From: mark.schroeder@stratfor.com
     &gt; To: t_wolf98@hotmail.com
     &gt; Subject: keeping in touch from Stratfor
     &gt;
     &gt; Dear Steve:
     &gt;
     &gt; Hello again from Stratfor, I hope all is well in Conakry? Things would
     &gt; appear to be pretty stable there now that the elections have been
     sorted
     &gt; out.
     &gt;
     &gt; I'm looking into a neighboring issue, about any possible AQIM
     connection
     &gt; in Guinea-Bissau, and was just wondering if you've ever picked up any
     &gt; chatter on AQIM while you've been in Conakry. Any concerns over their
     &gt; activities in your neck of the woods?
     &gt;
     &gt; Thanks for your thoughts again.
     &gt;
     &gt; My best,
     &gt;
     &gt; --Mark
     &gt;
     &gt; --
     &gt; Mark Schroeder
     &gt; Director of Sub Saharan Africa Analysis
     &gt; STRATFOR, a global intelligence company
     &gt; Tel +1.512.744.4079
     &gt; Fax +1.512.744.4334
     &gt; Email: mark.schroeder@stratfor.com
     &gt; Web: www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-03-11 17:50:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-06 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5048229_re-keeping-in-touch-from-stratfor-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mark.schroeder@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>t_wolf98@hotmail.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5052858</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] (more) TrapWire on Kabul Hotel Attack
</title>
    <description>   Two points here:

   1. If they were in fact dressed in Afghan police clothing it brings us
   back to the question we addressed in the afghan weekly a few weeks ago
   where there is concern about militant infiltration into the Afghan
   security forces. This definitely makes things difficult as the Afghan
   security forces are handed over the control which brings us to Sean's
   point about the fact the operation primarily ended with the NATO
   helicopters shooting down 3 men on the roof and even then there was one
   guy just going around in the hotel and it took about 2 hours to contain
   him.

   2. Also if the militants were dressed in Afghan police attire it explains
   how they managed to bypass those multiple layers of defense.

   On Wednesday, 6/29/11 9:27 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

     Nothing to confirm or refute this initial claim. But new reporting
     suggests attackers arrived dressed as Afghan police. This is standard MO
     for Taliban...and many terror groups as you know. Only thing that
     everyone agrees on right now is that this thing was meticulously
     planned, and clearly well surveilled ahead of time. This hotel has
     multiple layers of defense -- including armed guards -- and still the
     bad guys got in. We don't have a single hotel in this country with even
     10% of the security the Intercontinental had. When they decide to start
     targeting hotels here, it'll shooting fish in a barrel.

      

      

     Stormed in force out of a vehicle after one perp detonated a vest at the
     gate  (Mike, think this remains accurate?)

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-06-29 16:46:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5052858_re-alpha-more-trapwire-on-kabul-hotel-attack-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>hoor.jangda@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5053201</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT - SYRIA - Army purges
</title>
    <description>   PUBLICATION: sitrep
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor military source in the region
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:
   Lebanese military source
   Reliability : B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

   I learned from Syrian military colleagues that about 3,000 Syrian troops
   were executed since mid-March for refusing to open fire on protesters. A
   similar number of troops have been arrested for the same reason. He says
   many army defectors have fled to Turkey, Lebanon and al-Anbar in Iraq. The
   likelihood of a military coup has become virtually impossible because the
   Alawites and their Druze and Christian allies have completely eliminated
   Sunnis from ranking positions. All army units have been placed under firm
   control by pro-regime military commanders. The chief of staff of the
   Syrian army Daoud Naf'a, who is Christian, has no control over the army.
   Naf'a is believed to have entered in a dialogue with U.S. officials and
   has, thus, become suspect.
</description>
    <date>2011-07-18 21:45:08</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-15 20:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5053201_-alpha-insight-syria-army-purges-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>clint.richards@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5055280</id>
    <title>[alpha] Fw: Oslo
</title>
    <description>   Trapwire

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 11:00:28 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Oslo

   My money's on a Libyan connection.

    

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 18:04:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5055280_-alpha-fw-oslo-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5055452</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   We don't know

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:12:04 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   Was the shooter a Libyan?

   On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:13:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5055452_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5055578</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT - PNG - Somare - CN65
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE: via CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1/2
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

   The contact is very close to the Somare family.  He said the family itself
   doesn't know who will be the next PM, and that everything in this regard
   is in a state of flux.  The problem in all of these things is that there
   is no party cohesion in any of the parties.  I look at US parties, and I
   see the Whip as being very weak compared to Australian politics, but in
   PNG the Whip is simply non-existent.  Not only do you have a proliferation
   of small parties in PNG, but people are free to move from one party to
   another, and frequently do so.  
   The difficulty Somare's family will have in attempting to dictate the next
   PM is that they come from the East Sepik, so they don't really have a
   naturally large regional voting block.  They are also sorting out amongst
   themselves if any other members of the family are going to enter politics.
    The strongest block lies in the Highlands, but Ben Sabumei can't work out
   what he wants to do in terms of swinging votes.
   The one thing we did agree was that corruption will win the day for the
   foreseeable future.  This means that maybe nobody in the Parliament will
   know who the winner will be until after the vote!
   I know this doesn't advance things much in terms of an answer, but it does
   give you a better understanding of the situation.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-01 23:00:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5055578_-alpha-insight-png-somare-cn65-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reginald.thompson@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5060451</id>
    <title>Highly Confidential - Threat to CONUS - DO NOT FORWARD
</title>
    <description>   DO NOT FORWARD
    
    
   This week, FBI Hqs stood up a compartmented task force to hunt down an
   Afghani tribal al-Qaeda operative (NFI) who has entered the United States
   to coordinate an attack inside the United States before the end of the
   summer.    It is believed, but not known, the terrorist is responsible for
   activating 3-5 other "sleepers" for the terrorist operation.   FBI opines
   an attack would take place in Washington, DC and/or New York City.   
   No/no notifications will be made to the public, for fear of accusations
   that the matter is being "hyped" for political reasons. 
</description>
    <date>2007-08-04 00:19:48</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-07-31 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5060451_highly-confidential-threat-to-conus-do-not-forward-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5060472</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT - PNG - Feedback on analysis - CN65
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE: CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

   Please see my comments in orange below.
   The real challenge for PNG is that it is too corrupt to develop
   efficiently. The new government won't make this any worse, but won't make
   it any better either.  
   What will happen is some stability, and an end to governmental paralysis.
    Most of the last eight months in public life there have been spent
   preserving the government, not moving the country forward.
   We see this as a good move.  How good a move will only be known once the
   cabinet is unveiled, but we hope for a good Treasurer.  Many of the other
   posts will be filled by people who are, quite frankly, under-qualified for
   the offices they hold.
   The other issue is that the standard of the political class is clearly
   lower than it was fifteen years ago.  The old guys got corrupt and lazy,
   and outdated.  The newer guys have been obsessed with personal wealth, and
   lack the respect for the offices they hold, which the previous generation
   had.  This, at least, was the view presented to me privately on Wednesday
   evening, by one of most senior diplomats.

   On 04/08/2011 12:23, wrote:

     here is what i have so far. the PROCESS by which they ousted Abal is a
     little confusing to me, so i wanted to run this by yall to make sure it
     is correct and accurate.

      

     The Papua New Guinean parliament on Aug. 2?? yes held a no-confidence
     vote against the government of acting Prime Minister Sam Abal, who has
     held the post since his predecessor, Michael Somare, resigned in
     December 2010.  Somare has not resigned, per se, but merely stood aside.
      He had already been mired in a controversy requiring him to meet a
     Leadership Tribunal for failing to make statutory financial returns.
     Abal is replaced by Peter O'Neill, who previously headed the Works
     Ministry and the Treasury.he was elected by a vote of 70 to 24.  I
     understood the vote was 77 to 31, with the Speaker not casting a vote.
      To do this they first had to have a similar vote to suspend standing
     orders to allow the no-confidnce vote to happen.

      

     Somare ruled the country for the better part of 35 years, and (amid
     latest corruption charge and following the reportedly poor health
     condition) he installed Abal, a long term ally to Somare  to ensure his
     continued influence after he formally resigned (I think he always
     prepares for coming back to power, and appointment of Abal would help
     his return). But as Abal leaves office, so does any residual power
     Somare may have maintained. O'Neill  may represents a stark contrast to
     the Somare regime, seen by many as corrupt, and because of his
     Australian and Papua New Guinean heritage, he could take a more
     pro-Australia stance than that of his predecessors (let's focus more
     from OZ's side, something like: OZ will see the opportunity to work with
     the new administration, changing from Somare's administration which took
     a more anti-OZ stance)  Agree with that.  Aus will see O'Neill as more
     cooperative.  Incidentally, he is deeply personally indebted to my
     colleague, Ben. . Moreover, the two figures hail from different tribes
     (the word tribes here is not right; they are from different provinces,
     and different ethnic groups), the dynamics of which will play a
     significant role in domestic politics under the O'Neill administration.

      

     A New Prime Minister

      

     According to a STRATFOR source, a dispute between Abal and Foreign
     Minister Don Polye - I think this guy was ousted already, along with
     resource minister willian duma, and O'Neill was changed from treasurer
     to work minister during reshuffle in May-- both members of the reputedly
     fractious Engan tribe (try "grouping" instead, as Enga is a province) --
     rather than concerns of Somare's projecting power through a handpicked
     replacement precipitated the no-confidence vote. Unhappy with the
     dispute, the Papua New Guinean parliament voted to vacate the prime
     minister's post. (Somare has been receiving medical treatment in
     Singapore for the past few months and, according to the Papua New
     Guinean Constitution, the prime minister's position can be vacated if he
     is absent from parliament without leave for more than 90 days. The
     parliament was thus able to proceed with a no-confidence vote, even
     though Somare designated Abal as the acting prime minister.) Notably,
     the parliament was also unhappy with Abal's ousting O'Neill from his
     position as _______ some months earlier.the latest reshuffle took place
     in May, Don Polye and O'Neil were both ousted by Abal, which severed as
     a catalyst among parliament

      

      Parliament was able to vote for a new prime minister, and a number of
     lawmakers secured enough votes for O'Neill to win. According to the
     source, the lawmakers sought more than a simple majority; they wanted
     enough votes to give O'Neill a decisive victory so that the new
     government would be able to move forward with confidence. O'Neill is now
     in the process of forming a Cabinet, which could include former Prime
     Minister Mekere Morauta as treasurer, and the source said O'Neill is
     thought to be capable of bringing stability to his position until formal
     elections take place in 2012. worth to mention the business camp, which
     O'Neill belongs to (he used to be a successful businessman), served a
     big role into the reshuffle.  O'Neill has significant telecommunications
     interests, most particularly in mobile phones.  His father was an
     Australian kiap(local government administrator and magistrate), and his
     mother was from the Southern Highlands.  

      

     Abal's government has challenged -- unsuccessfully -- the legality of
     the move. Arthur Somare, the son of the former prime minister, has said
     he intends to file a new suit, and the Supreme Court will hear a
     separate case filed by Abal. STRATFOR sources say the court will uphold
     the legality of the vote, solidifying O'Neill in his new position.

     not sure what way we want to frame the following up pieces, here is my
     suggestion (feel free to ignore if you already have one)

   the latest upheaval follows internal power struggle for months without the
   country's strongman, and questions were raised over the future of Somare
   and any changes from his decade power.

   One of the priority for O'Neil is to maintain the country's stability.
   Peter O`Neill is a member of Pangia, Lailibu-Pangia. Somare's strong fist
   over the country have successfully helped unify the country, which have
   nearly thousand tribes and languages, so the domestic situation
   post-Somare period remains questionable - Jen, can we have any insight
   over how tribal issue play into current politics? is the current situation
   likely to be calmed down or far from ending?  It will never end.  The
   other thing is that political parties in PNG are merely groupings of
   convenience.  Many MPs change their political party immediately after
   being elected because they get bought by a rival party.

   Also, O'Neil promised to fight against corruption. though he is corrupted
   (from insight), and he has significant business investments in mobile
   phones, among other things, so it is unlikely that his stepping into power
   could represent big change the country's investment environment O'Neill is
   a strong proponent of the PNG LNG project, and other LNG projects, which
   eh sees as vital for the cash to build the country.  PNG LNG is largely
   American and Australian owned, with Exxon Mobil, Santos and Oil Search
   holding the majority of the shares..

   Also, Somare's last term represents significant shift of anti-OZ, peaked
   Moti Affairs, This period (2003-2007) has seen a steadily growing
   influence of China in Pacific nations, taking full advantage of PNG-OZ
   ramification. - our source indicated that O'Neill won't be anymore
   pro-western than anyone else up there, but I guess OZ may see if there
   would be opportunity to shift a strained relation under Somare - see from
   Gillard's remark on the new administration. so we are still wondering if
   OZ wants any change with new government

   Just attaching a bit research did about two years ago regarding China-PNG
   issue (not sure if it will be helpful)

   Michael Somare, 74 years old, is the dominant politicians in PNG since it
   was independent from Australia in 1975, and so far served as PM for four
   terms (reelected in 1982, 2002 and 2007). The PNG election will be held in
   2012, and Somare was talking about retiring for sometimes, but instead
   setting his son Arthur, the minister for state enterprises and acting
   treasurer, as his successor.

    

   Deputy Prime Minister Dr Puka Temu and two senior ministers - Culture
   Minister Charles Abel and Forest Minister Belden Namah, defected to the
   opposition on July 19 and prepared a no-confidence motion to the
   parliament at 14:00 July 20. The move follows a court ruling last week
   that found several parts of PNG's political integrity law were
   unconstitutional - freedom of speech, freedom of movement. As a result
   from the ruling, MPs are free from party restrictions to move around and
   vote in a no-confidence motion against the sitting prime minister.  This
   is dated.

    

   PNG Political Integrity Laws:

   The political integrity laws of Papua New Guinea came into affect for the
   2002 election and the aim was to bring about political stability in a
   country where governments had chopped and changed pretty regularly through
   no confidence votes. So these laws bound members of parliament through
   their parties and if their parties had supported the government to form a
   governing coalition, they were pretty much bound to vote along government
   line.

    

   PNG-China:

   Somare has long been seen as close to Malaysian logging interests and
   accommodating to Chinese entrepreneurs setting up entertainment venues.
   However, in June this year, He banned reporting and discussion of
   environment law charges that could allow a Chinese miner to pump waste out
   to sea.

    

   PNG Nickel Mine Project:

   Chinese financed Ramu nickel mine project in PNG's Madang Province was
   approved by PNG government ten years ago, and the company claims it has
   already spent more than a billion dollars into the project. However, the
   project was opposed by landowners and environmental groups. Last week,
   Supreme Court failed to lift the injunction stopping construction of a
   system to dispose of mining waste in Madang's Basamuk Bay. Somare,
   representing the government's stance, met with local landowners, but
   failed to reach an agreement on the issue.

    
    

   PNG-Australia:

   Somare outraged Australia in 2006, when he ignored an extradition request
   for Solomon Islands attorney general Julian Moti to face child sex
   charges. Moti was then flown to Solomon Islands on a PNG Defense Force
   flight and Australia then cancelled ministerial level talks in Dec. 2006
   and banned senior PNG ministers from entering Australia.

    

   Following Australia's intervention in Solomon in 2003, Australia laid out
   plans for an Enhanced Cooperation Package (ECP) for PNG to send more than
   200 Australian police as well as senior bureaucrats to PNG, but the idea
   was strongly opposed by Somare.

    

   It looks like Australia has been trying to overthrow Somare for several
   years, at least back to 2007 election in Howard's administration

    
    

   Earlier July, Australia seeks PNG support on regional asylum seeker
   processing center, following objection from East Timor, to have PNG's
   Manus Island as possible site for the center. As an effort to offer PNG in
   return for the support, Australia is talking with PNG on a huge gas
   project that worth 16 billion and due to begin production in 2014.
   Astralia sent Trade Minister Stephen Smith in talk with PNG Public
   Enterprises Minister Arthur Somare - Sr. Somare's son - on July 1, to
   discuss providing technical and advisory support as PNG establishes
   sovereign wealth funds. Australia also pledged 450 million aids to PNG.
   But PNG government on July 10 rejected proposal.  This will be problematic
   under O'Neill as one of his close advisors is a rather dodgy Norwegian(!),
   and former Telstra sales rep, who wants this for himself.

    
    
    

   MSG - Fiji Issue:

    
    

   China - OZ - South Pacific:

   Relations between PNG and Australia were seriously strained during Howard
   administration, following a series of diplomatic incidents, peaked with
   Moti Affairs. This period (2003-2007) has seen a steadily growing
   influence of China in PNG, as well as other South Pacific nations, taking
   full advantage of PNG-OZ ramification.

    

   China's interest in PNG lies in three areas: 1. mineral resources, timber
   and fishing, in particular, China and PNG signed investment deal in Ramu
   nickel project that worth 651 million dollars; 2. Geopolitical importance
   of creating a breakpoint from U.S-Japan-Australia naval containment; 3.

    

   In fact, as Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade said -
   which is in consistent with my friend, China's aid to PNG "tend to focus
   on prestige projects in a `chequebook diplomacy' competition, applying
   less rigorous standards of transparency, accountability and governance
   than other donors". My friend says, in those Pacific countries - same as
   African countries, standards don't apply when it comes to investment.
   There was pre-study, and post-investigation, despite many items don't meet
   standard, the report still recommend a pass due to "political
   considerations". China's investment during 2005-2007 are primarily
   concentrated in infrastructure projects. According to a report The Dragon
   Looks South,  China's aid to PNG increased from 6.1 million dollars in
   2005, to 14.1 million in 2006, slightly decreased to 10.7 million in 2007.

    
    

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-08-05 05:05:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5060472_-alpha-insight-png-feedback-on-analysis-cn65-.html</permalink>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5061164</id>
    <title>G3/S3* - IRAN/US/ISRAEL/SYRIA - Iran officials accuses USA,	Israel
	of interfering in Syria
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-09-13 09:40:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5061164_g3-s3-iran-us-israel-syria-iran-officials-accuses-usa-israel.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5070598</id>
    <title>[alpha] RESENDING - MUST READ Fwd: source evaluations - must read
</title>
    <description>   It has come to my attention that if something is sent at night it is not
   seen as valuable as if it were sent during 8a-5p so I'm resending this. 
   This needs to change.  We operate 24/7.  This is mandatory for everyone to
   read and process.

   I also resent the insight lists this morning with the correct
   spreadsheet.  That is also mandatory reading.  If you need me to resend
   that as well, let me know.

   If there are any questions, please ask.  I will send an email later today
   or tomorrow on the intel meeting next week as mentioned in another email
   also sent last night.

   Jen

   -------- Original Message --------

    Subject: [alpha] source evaluations - must read                     
       Date: Tue, 09 Aug 2011 21:51:43 -0500                            
       From: Jennifer Richmond &lt;richmond@stratfor.com&gt;                  
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;                            
         To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;, watchofficer@stratfor.com 

   This is the first in several emails on our sourcing and insight
   collections.  To begin with, we will be meeting with everyone who has
   sources to evaluate them on the criteria and scoring below.  I will be in
   touch with everyone who has a source list within the next few weeks.  If
   you have sources but no source list, then you need to create one.  I will
   give details on this in a separate email. 

   All of those who need to update or create their list need to do so by
   Monday and send them to both myself and Anya.  If you need a source code
   number range, email me and I will get this set up for you so you can start
   the process.  For analysts with compiled lists with uncoded sources,
   please code these ASAP unless they are genuinely a one-off and then give
   an explanation.

   In the meantime, it would be best if everyone with sources start to
   evaluate each source by looking at least the past five insights and start
   to score them based on the criteria and scoring below so you are not
   scrambling when we are ready to set up an evaluation with you.  Also, from
   here on out, start to think about sources with these criteria and scoring
   in mind.  This will be the first of many periodic insight evaluations so
   its best for everyone to get acquainted with this method.

   For Watch Officers, please also start to think along these lines when you
   are reading insight.  In the future we will also look to you as objective
   source evaluators.  Also, please start to read the insight carefully and
   comment on it the same as you would a piece from OS.  As Reva said in our
   meeting today, we are starting to refocus on intel and insight.  As Watch
   Officers, you are well placed to comment on any anomalies presented in
   insights and compare it with what is being said in the media.

   If there are any questions or concerns, please ask.

   Jen

                               Sourcing Criteria

   The following are the proposed criteria for analyzing both sources and
   insight.

    

   1.     Source Timeliness

   2.     Source Accessibility/Position

   3.     Source Availability

   4.     Insight Credibility

   5.     Insight Uniqueness

    

    

   Source Timeliness:  This is the average grade on how long this particular
   source turns around tasks and replies to inquiries.  It may change but is
   more of a static indicator.

    

   Source Accessibility: Accessibility weighs the source's position to have
   certain knowledge in a particular field.  So, for example, if we are
   looking for energy insight and the source is an official in an energy
   agency, his or her Accessibility would be ranked higher than if s/he was a
   banker giving insight on energy.  While we would welcome a banker giving
   his/her insight, a good source may not have a high accessibility ranking
   if they aren't in a position to offer reliable insight on a certain topic.
   The source's access to decision makers, specific training or education in
   the desired topic area, specific knowledge of events/situations/incidents
   can also be considered.

    

   Source Availability:  How often can we go to this source?  Are they
   someone we can tap daily, weekly, monthly, yearly?

    

   Insight Credibility:  This is our assessment of the veracity of the
   insight offered.  Here we need to consider whether or not this is
   disinformation, speculation, correct data or knowledgeable interpretation.
   Any bias that the source is displaying or any specific viewpoints or
   personal background the source is using in the assessment provided should
   also be considered.

    

   Insight Uniqueness:  Is this insight something that could be found in OS? 
   If it is but the analysis of the information is unique, it would still
   have a high uniqueness ranking.  Or, if it is concrete data, but is
   something that is only offered to industry insiders, i.e. stats that
   aren't published but that aren't secret, it would still have a high
   uniqueness score.

    

    

                                    Scoring

   All of the above factors will be scored on an A-F scale, with A being
   exemplary and F being useless. 

    

   Source Timeliness:

   A = turnaround within 24 hours

   B = turnaround within 48 hours

   C = turnaround within a week

   D = turnaround within a month

   F = lucky to receive a reply at all

    

   Source Accessibility:

   A = Someone with intimate knowledge of the particular insight

   B = Someone within the industry but whose knowledge of the topic is not
   exact (e.g. if we were asking someone in the oil industry about natural
   gas)

   C = Someone working close to the industry who doesn't have intimate
   knowledge of a particular topic but can speak to it intelligently (e.g. a
   financial consultant asked to gauge the movement of the stock market)

   D = Someone who may know a country but doesn't have any concrete insight
   into a particular topic but can offer rumors and discussions heard on the
   topic

   F = Someone who has no knowledge of a particular industry at all

    

   Source Availability:

   A = Available pretty much whenever

   B = Can tap around once a week

   C = Can tap about once a month

   D = Can tap only several times a year

   F = Very limited availability

    

   Insight Credibility:

   A = We can take this information to the bank

   B = Good insight but maybe not entirely precise

   C = Insight is only partially true

   D = There may be some interest in the insight, but it is mostly false or
   just pure speculation.

   F = Likely to be disinformation

    

   Insight Uniqueness:

   A = Can't be found anywhere else

   B = Can only be found in limited circles

   C = Insight can be found in OS, but the source has an interesting
   take/analysis

   D = Insight can be found in OS, but still may not be common knowledge

   F = Insight is accessible in numerous locations

    

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-08-10 21:05:56</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 02:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5070598_-alpha-resending-must-read-fwd-source-evaluations-must-read-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5079189</id>
    <title>Re: keeping in touch
</title>
    <description>   Hey Mark:
   I do not think that anyone in the Gbagbo camp will tell you how they are
   going to manage without the central bank (BCEAO). They have their way and
   my sources are telling me that some African countries are ready to help.
   But here is the problem with Ouattara's call to impose economic sanctions
   on Cote d'Ivoire: Who does he think he is hurting? Not Gbagbo!!! Ouattara
   is hurting the people of Cote d'Ivoire. And sooner or later, they will
   come to his door to demand that their money and life be restored. They
   will not go to Gbagbo. Gbagbo will send all the disgruntled people to
   Ouattara by telling them that the country is in economic turmoil because
   of Ouattara. And the people will believe him and will attack Ouatttara
   instead. That's my prediction.
   By the way, I have contacted my sources in Abidjan and they are fearful
   that their names might appear somewhere in a newspaper. They want to stay
   discreet and do their job. I understand that they do not want me to shre
   their names with anybody.
   I KNOW some sure sources of Gbagbo's economy (as told by one of his
   ambassador) but I cannot tell you at this point.
    
   Keep in touch,
    
   Sylvain

   On Tue, Jan 25, 2011 at 3:36 PM, Mark Schroeder
   &lt;mark.schroeder@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

     Dear Sylvain:

     How are you? It appears that economic sanctions on Cote d'Ivoire are
     being tightened, now with cocoa buyers like Cargill possibly complying
     with the export ban that Ouattara called for.

     I am very keen to be able to assess the economic structure of the Gbagbo
     government, and determine what alternative mechanisms and sources of
     revenues they have if they are not able to export cocoa via Cargill.

     Could you suggest any resources or people I could talk with to assess
     what Gbagbo can do to still finance his government? Or, do revenues from
     cocoa exports continue to flow inward, even though the majority crop has
     already been exported?

     Thank you again.

     My best,

     --Mark
     --
     Mark Schroeder
     Director of Sub Saharan Africa Analysis
     STRATFOR, a global intelligence company
     Tel +1.512.744.4079
     Fax +1.512.744.4334
     Email: mark.schroeder@stratfor.com
     Web: www.stratfor.com

   --
   Sylvain Poosson
</description>
    <date>2011-01-26 06:45:04</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-06 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5079189_re-keeping-in-touch-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>poosson@gmail.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5080310</id>
    <title>Re: [Analytical &amp; Intelligence Comments] Political unrest in Cote
 d'	Ivoire
</title>
    <description>   I'll contact him and send him our report from 2 days ago.

   On 1/28/11 3:13 PM, chris@gospelforafrica.com wrote:

     Chris Jones sent a message using the contact form at
     https://www.stratfor.com/contact.

     I have searched your data and have not found any in-depth coverage of
     the situation in Cote d' Ivoire. It seems the world is not interested in
     the real story of what is happening there. If the USA and France
     continue to push the UN to sponsor one candidate there will be a
     terrible consequence with a possibility of hundreds of thousands of
     lives lost. What is worth such a cost to the USA and France? Is it
     political dominance in Africa? Is it Oil and natural gas. Is it a new
     cold war with Russia and China that will eventually lead to the Middle
     East? What does Stratfor say about this?

     Source:
     http://www.stratfor.com/theme/egypt-unrest?utm_source=WatchReport&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=110128&amp;utm_content=readmore&amp;elq=634b6d77fbba4adf9bad2f7872279a9a
</description>
    <date>2011-01-28 22:29:17</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-06 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5080310_re-analytical-and-intelligence-comments-political-unrest-in.html</permalink>
    <tags>
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      <tag><name>responses@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5083146</id>
    <title>Re: keeping in touch
</title>
    <description>   Hi Per,

   It is good to hear from you too. I'm sorry to hear about your illness and
   I hope you've recovered well. Thanks for the referral on the Morningside
   hospital which I will keep in mind. Yes, I have moved to South Africa, and
   am posted in Durban. It's nice to be so close to the ocean!

   Have you since returned to Luanda? I hope it's not too unpleasant being
   back there. Thanks for the advice on the hotel situation there, too.
   Relatedly, is there so much economic activity going on there that warrants
   the tight supply of hotel rooms? Are you seeing more and more business
   opening? Is it expanding beyond the energy sector too? How does the energy
   sector itself look?

   Thanks for keeping in touch and I hope all is well.

   My best,

   --Mark

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Per Holter-Andersen" &lt;pha@thea.as&gt;
   To: "Mark Schroeder" &lt;mark.schroeder@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Saturday, May 3, 2008 12:42:39 PM (GMT+0200) Africa/Harare
   Subject: RE: keeping in touch

   Hello Mark.

   It was good to hear from you again.

   It sounds as if you have moved to SA, is that case?

    

   I have had health problems the last half year.

   I incurred an amoeba infection on the liver in Dec while in Angola. This
   was declared over and done with in Jan.

   Then in Mar I went down again with something undefined, but likely a
   separate intestine infection.

   I ended up evacuating from Luanda to JNB where I spent eight days in
   hospital (Sandton Morningside Hospital a** which can be recommended if you
   should end up with a problem).

   After trying a few days to restart work turn in Luanda, I broke off and
   went home for R&amp;R.

    

   After four weeks at home I am again declared well after several tests and
   controls here at local hospital in Krsand and will be heading back to
   Luanda Monday 05 May for six weeks.

    

   I am therefore not in a position to provide you with much sensible update
   from Angola.

   Hopefully this will pick up over the next few weeks.

   I have re-established previous contacts and hope to be getting improved
   takes on the various aspects in Luanda.

    

   Look forward to hearing back from you and hopefully also information that
   you will be visiting Luanda some time soon.

   Be aware of hotel situation which is next to impossible and is getting
   worse.

   A few guest houses are coming up, but the town is waiting for the first of
   a string of new hotels being built.

    

   Per

    

    

   From: Mark Schroeder [mailto:mark.schroeder@stratfor.com]
   Sent: 2. mai 2008 11:06
   To: phanders@ONLINE.NO
   Subject: keeping in touch

    

   Dear Per:

   How are you? I hope all has been well. I'm now gettling settled in South
   Africa. How are things looking in Angola? I'm sure the government is
   making nice sounding public statements about the September elections. Does
   any of that impact your work in the energy sector?

   Thanks for keeping in touch.

   My best,

   --Mark

   Mark Schroeder
   STRATFOR
   Regional Director, Sub Saharan Africa
   Tel:  +27.31.539.2040 (South Africa)
   Cell: +27.71.490.7080 (South Africa)
   Tel:  +1.512.782.9920 (U.S.)
   Cell: +1.512.905.9837 (U.S.)
   E-mail: mark.schroeder@stratfor.com
   Web: www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-06 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5083146_re-keeping-in-touch-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mark.schroeder@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>pha@thea.as</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5084445</id>
    <title>G3*/SRM -- INDIA -- India says no tsunami warning issued after 6.3
 quake
</title>
    <description>              India says no tsunami warning issued after 6.3 quake

   Fri Jun 27, 2008 1:34pm BST
   http://uk.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUKISL21297620080627

   (Adds details)

   NEW DELHI, June 27 (Reuters) - A strong earthquake shook India's Andaman
   and Nicobar Islands but no tsunami alert was issued, the Indian National
   Centre for Ocean Information Services said on Friday. "The magnitude is
   6.3 and it's centred in the Andaman Islands," Srinivas Kumar, an official
   at the centre, told Reuters.

   "We have not issued any tsunami warning so far and there is no need for
   widespread evacuation required because it's 6.3. We are studying the
   situation."

   The U.S. Geological Survey reported it was a 6.7 magnitude earthquake,
   centered 71 miles (114 km) southwest of Port Blair, in the Andaman
   Islands, and was 21.7 miles (35 km) deep.

   Hundreds of people were out on the roads in Port Blair, officials and
   witnesses said.

   People ran out of their houses and telephone lines were jammed, they said.

   Police were asking people not to panic and return to their homes.
   (Reporting by Krittivas Mukherjee; Additional reporting by Sanjib Kumar
   Roy in Port Blair; Editing by Alistair Scrutton)
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-13 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5084445_g3-srm-india-india-says-no-tsunami-warning-issued-after-6-3.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mark.schroeder@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>watchofficer@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5091635</id>
    <title>Re: A thought on open source practice
</title>
    <description>   Well put.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Brian Genchur
   Date: Mon, 30 Mar 2009 22:44:22 -0500
   To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: A thought on open source practice

   I'd add another example to George's point.  The reason media come to us
   for information and analysis is because we are, by definition, not open
   source.  If we named all of our sources the same way the NYT does, then
   they would likely go to the 'primary source' of the information (where we
   collected it) rather than us.  The NYT wouldn't analyze it as well, but
   that's another point. 

   STRATFOR analysts BECOME sources for news outlets by using intelligence
   and analytical methods as opposed to purely news gathering techniques. 
   Journalists collect information and write down what others say.  You guys
   use your brains to analyze the information after collection, and then you
   say what that all means in context - something I think is far more
   valuable and interesting.  You then use history, analysis, whatever other
   magic you guys do...  to forecast.  By doing so, you add so much value to
   the information (open source or otherwise) that you become the NOT open
   source that you are - or more precisely - that STRATFOR is not.

   A journalist is taught to be a "public watchdog".  The 4th Estate.  Expose
   the information and let the public decide what it means (though with
   commentators, entertainers and columnists these days, the line is
   blurring).  I'm pretty sure that "public watchdog" wouldn't be the first
   way you'd describe yourself when it comes to what you do.  Though, I may
   be wrong.  A "public watchdog"'s role is to MAKE information open source.

   George Friedman wrote:

 And that is the weakness of the government vision and why I never use the term open source in relation to us.  When you talk to me1 or jen talks to china or the ct team spins up a source it is a degree of secret material. It is stone secret. The idea that clandestine collection is a government specialty has never worked with shell oil.  The government confuses the dissemination of information with the collection of information.  We are not at all like the nyt because their reporters always identify themselves as such. We may or may not as it suits us. This is the fundamental difference between journalism and intelligence. The source may never know he was a source, which is the definition of clandestine.   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T  -----Original Message----- From: Reva Bhalla &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;  Date: Mon, 30 Mar 2009 21:52:42 To: &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;; Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt; Subject: Re: A thought on open source practice   that's true, the way the govt defines open sources is:  Any and all information that can be derived from overt collection: all types of media, government reports, scientific research, Internet, commercial vendors of info, etc. The main qualifies to open source information are that it does not require any type of clandestine collection techniques to obtain it.  for the USG, it doesn't require clandestine collection to obtain what Strat writes. But STrat product does require some level of secret sourcing. So by this definition, Stratfor isn't any definition than a NYT reporter with a source.  On Mar 30, 2009, at 9:47 PM, George Friedman wrote:   

 I agree except that I don't regard us as open source. We publish much of what we know but our souring includes what will be a growing amount of non open source material. So I'm rejecting the government definition of open source. We publush our findings but our sources are far from open. Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T  -----Original Message----- From: Reva Bhalla &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;  Date: Mon, 30 Mar 2009 21:41:34 To: &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;; Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt; Subject: Re: A thought on open source practice   agree, and those all good points, but the industry is also slowly transforming to greater appreciate open source intelligence, like Stratfor. With technological advancements, information is everywhere. Some of it highly misleading written on blogs by the crazy Kazakhs and Ukrainians who write to us. Others, like Strat and other valuable databases of information, are accessed regularly by top policymakers, creating a crisis for many within the covert source realm. in reality, both can't survive without each other. there is a strong case for both open source and covert sources, but there will always be that so- called elitism in the classified world.  regardless, as an open source institution, there is a good niche for us in this market and we should all take pride in the different ways we build up our reputation, whether through the open source material we collect and disseminate, through the intel we collect through our own sources, through the analysis we piece together, through the PR efforts to get our name out there, etc.     On Mar 30, 2009, at 9:32 PM, George Friedman wrote:     

 In order for this to be understood we must distinguish the proper use of open source from the governments use.  For usg, open source is anything not classified. The most secret source used by stratfor is still open source in their mind.  Open source should be defined as published and publicly accessible sources. Covert sources are unpublished sources.  What needs to be added to this mix is common gossip.  This is a form of intelligence that sometimes contains value but too frequently is simply idle chatter.  Too much of what is called intelligence is idle chatter by people who don't really know anything.  This is the trap.  So nyes point on published material is valid. Most of what is true is widely known and published. But his definition of covert intelligence is insufficient. The assumption that classified information is superior to covert intelligence gathered by others is the conceit of the intelligence community and leads them into constant error.   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T  -----Original Message----- From: Reva Bhalla &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;  Date: Mon, 30 Mar 2009 21:17:18 To: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt; Subject: A thought on open source practice   Joseph Nye, during his tenure at the NIC, said:  "open source intelligence is the outer pieces of the jigsaw puzzle, without which one can neither begin nor complete the puzzle"  if you think about our daily work, we rely heavily on open source to fill out the frame of our analysis, and fill in the real picture with critical pieces of intel. After much time and labor, we can finally complete the picture, and that should be the ultimate satisfaction of the analyst and the collector.  just a thought..      

   

 -- {\rtf1\ansi\ansicpg1252\cocoartf949\cocoasubrtf430 {\fonttbl\f0\fswiss\fcharset0 Helvetica;} {\colortbl;\red255\green255\blue255;} \margl1440\margr1440\vieww9000\viewh8400\viewkind0 \pard\tx720\tx1440\tx2160\tx2880\tx3600\tx4320\tx5040\tx5760\tx6480\tx7200\tx7920\tx8640\ql\qnatural\pardirnatural  \f0\fs24 \cf0 Brian Genchur\ Public Relations Manager\ STRATFOR\pr@stratfor.com\ 512 744 4309}
</description>
    <date>2009-03-31 05:50:37</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5091635_re-a-thought-on-open-source-practice-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5095199</id>
    <title>[alpha] MORE Re:  MORE Re:  INSIGHT - PNG - New PM - via CN65
</title>
    <description>   A little more background on this guy:

   Quite corrupt.  I know him.  He is manipulated by a rather bad egg from
   Norway, who couldn't run a used car lot, but is now O'Neil's economic
   advisor.
   O'Neil is not any more pro-Western than anyone else up there.  As long as
   he makes money for himself (he has significant business investments in
   mobile phones, among other things), he couldn't really care less.
   One thing that can't be disputed, though, i that O'Neil represents a
   generational change compared to previous PMs.

   On 8/2/11 7:03 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

     In response to the numbers give in the original insight:

     Oh, now I realise.  These are the numbers in the Chamber: 77 for the
     government, 31 for the Opposition, and the Speaker.

     On 8/2/11 6:42 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

       *I think they probably meant to type 07/31 but will double check with
       source.

       SOURCE: via CN65
       ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
       natural resources
       SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
       PUBLICATION: Yes
       SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
       ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
       SPECIAL HANDLING: None
       SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

         Png has a new PM Peter O'Neil, opposition will form new gov 77/31
          

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com


 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-08-02 17:01:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5095199_-alpha-more-re-more-re-insight-png-new-pm-via-cn65-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5095524</id>
    <title>hello from STRATFOR RE: The Risks of Violence in	Cote d'Ivoire
</title>
    <description>Dear Courtenay:

Thank you for your thoughtful comments and referral to Nidra Poller. I
have since been in touch with her. We continue to watch with close
attention the struggle in Cote d'Ivoire. Libya might have a hand in this
crisis, perhaps old guard French individuals have a hand in it. It will
not be easy to dissect it. I am keen to keep in touch with you, and
welcome any other thoughts or angles we should be looking at.

Sincerely,

--Mark

-- 
Mark Schroeder
Director of Sub Saharan Africa Analysis
STRATFOR, a global intelligence company
Tel +1.512.744.4079
Fax +1.512.744.4334
Email: mark.schroeder@stratfor.com
Web: www.stratfor.com


On 1/27/11 3:35 PM, courtenay@cweldon.net wrote:
&gt; courtenay sent a message using the contact form at
&gt; https://www.stratfor.com/contact.
&gt;
&gt; I asked Nidra Poller if  Quttara was a tool of France.  I suggest to
&gt; you she would be an excellent source for Stratfor.  He used to work
&gt; for Pajamas Media and quit several years ago.  Here email is
&gt; nidrapol@gmail.com Here is what she wrote me. ". Ouettara is not a
&gt; tool of France. More like a tool of Ghadafi. The so-called "New
&gt; Forces" are rebels from the Northd, financed by some big money (not by
&gt; Burkina Fasso), essential Muslim, that attacked the legitimate Gbagbo
&gt; government. France was supposed to come to Gbagbo's defense' but
&gt; didn't. CÃ´te d'Ivoire was divided. When Gbagbo tried to defend his
&gt; then legitimate government the French attacked him (it's true, there
&gt; was a strike on a French base) and destroyed his aviation.
&gt; He held his own in the south but could not reunite the country.
&gt; The rebel forces were led by Guillaume Soro who is now the prime
&gt; minister of the Ouettara "government."
&gt; The deal was that elections would be held if the northern militia
&gt; disarmed. They didn't disarm. As we could see from certain news
&gt; broadcasts, where armed rebels came into the Gulf hotel compound.
&gt; The dispute is over the voting in the north, under the eyes of armed
&gt; rebels.  Gbagbo's camp claims that illegal immigrants (Muslim) were
&gt; allowed to vote, and that's how Ouattara "won."
&gt; I don't know if Gbagbo is guilty of all, some, or none of the crimes
&gt; attributed to him. But I do know that there can't be a legitimate
&gt; government in CÃ´te d'Ivoire as long as the armed rebellion is allowed
&gt; to maintain its control over more than half of the country.  The
&gt; French changed their name from "rebels" to "Forces Nouvelles." What is
&gt; that supposed to mean?
&gt;
</description>
    <date>2011-01-28 18:44:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5095524_hello-from-stratfor-re-the-risks-of-violence-in-cote-d.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mark.schroeder@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>courtenay@cweldon.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5100332</id>
    <title>Re: G3* - IRAN/UN/MIL - Iran IAEA report leaked
</title>
    <description>   i only just now read the Barak interview.  blows my mind this dickhead was
   asking about Munich the movie.  But this was a great answer-

   JEREMY VINE:

   You have an amazing military record, and for those who don't know it,
   19... - correct me if I'm wrong here - 1972 led the mission to free
   hostages on a Sabena flight; 1973, I read somewhere you dressed as a woman
   to assassinate - you're nodding - members of the PLO.

   EHUD BARAK:

   (over) Not as a hobby, yuh.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Chris Farnham" &lt;chris.farnham@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: alerts@stratfor.com
   Sent: Monday, November 7, 2011 2:02:00 AM
   Subject: G3* - IRAN/UN/MIL - Iran IAEA report leaked

           I'm thinking we'll see a bucket load of items out of Iran, the US
           and Europe today regarding the coming IAEA report and all the
           politicing around it. Might as well have them all in one place for
           ease of reading [chris]

   Obviously waaaaay too much info here to rep. The key element of this item
   is the leaking of the info before the release of the report in order to
   prime/set the agenda by focusing on particular aspects and findings of the
   report. this leak is obviously a part of the concerted PR operation on
   behalf of the Israelis, US and possibly some Europeans and KSA. The items
   of the report are secondary in importance to the agenda that is being
   played out here to increase pressure on Iran, probably in the attempt to
   increase sanctions and push it to the top of the global consciousness thus
   giving the US increased leverage to bargain the best possible pull out of
   Iraq/Afghanistan [chris]

   there was a strange report of an anonymous speaker at a forum last friday,
   this may be related to that [johnblasing]

   IAEA says foreign expertise has brought Iran to threshold of nuclear
   capability

   http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iaea-says-foreign-expertise-has-brought-iran-to-threshold-of-nuclear-capability/2011/11/05/gIQAc6hjtM_print.html

   By Joby Warrick, Monday, November 7, 4:41 AM

   Intelligence provided to U.N. nuclear officials shows that Irana**s
   government has mastered the critical steps needed to build a nuclear
   weapon, receiving assistance from foreign scientists to overcome key
   technical hurdles, according to Western diplomats and nuclear experts
   briefed on the findings.

   Documents and other records provide new details on the role played by a
   former Soviet weapons scientist who allegedly tutored Iranians over
   several years on building high-precision detonators of the kind used to
   trigger a nuclear chain reaction, the officials and experts said. Crucial
   technology linked to experts in Pakistan and North Korea also helped
   propel Iran to the threshold of nuclear capability, they added.

   The officials, citing secret intelligence provided over several years to
   the International Atomic Energy Agency, said the records reinforce
   concerns that Iran continued to conduct weapons-related research after
   2003 a** when, U.S. intelligence agencies believe, Iranian leaders halted
   such experiments in response to international and domestic pressures.

   The U.N. nuclear watchdog is due to release a report this week laying out
   its findings on Irana**s efforts to obtain sensitive nuclear technology.
   Fears that Iran could quickly build an atomic bomb if it chooses to has
   fueled anti-Iran rhetoric and new threats of military strikes. Some U.S.
   arms-control groups have cautioned against what they fear could be an
   overreaction to the report, saying there is still time to persuade Iran to
   change its behavior.

   Iranian officials expressed indifference about the report.

   a**Let them publish and see what happens,a** said Irana**s foreign
   minister and former nuclear top official, Ali Akbar Salehi, the
   semiofficial Mehr News Agency reported Saturday.

   Salehi said that the controversy over Irana**s nuclear program is a**100
   percent politicala** and that the IAEA is a**under pressure from foreign
   powers.a**

   a**Never really stoppeda**

   Although the IAEA has chided Iran for years to come clean about a number
   of apparently weapons-related scientific projects, the new disclosures
   fill out the contours of an apparent secret research program that was more
   ambitious, more organized and more successful than commonly suspected.
   Beginning early in the last decade and apparently resuming a** though at a
   more measured pace a** after a pause in 2003, Iranian scientists worked
   concurrently across multiple disciplines to obtain key skills needed to
   make and test a nuclear weapon that could fit inside the countrya**s
   long-range missiles, said David Albright, a former IAEA official who has
   reviewed the intelligence files.
   a**The program never really stopped,a** said Albright, president of the
   Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security. The
   institute performs widely respected independent analyses of nuclear
   programs in countries around the world, often drawing from IAEA data.

   a**After 2003, money was made available for research in areas that sure
   look like nuclear weapons work but were hidden within civilian
   institutions,a** Albright said.

   U.S. intelligence officials maintain that Irana**s leaders have not
   decided whether to build nuclear weapons but are intent on gathering all
   the components and skills so they can quickly assemble a bomb if they
   choose to. Iran has consistently maintained that its nuclear activities
   are peaceful and intended only to generate electricity.

   The IAEA has declined to comment on the intelligence it has received from
   member states, including the United States, pending the release of its
   report.

   But some of the highlights were described in a presentation by Albright at
   a private conference of intelligence professionals last week. PowerPoint
   slides from the presentation were obtained by The Washington Post, and
   details of Albrighta**s summary were confirmed by two European diplomats
   privy to the IAEAa**s internal reports. The two officials spoke on the
   condition of anonymity, in keeping with diplomatic protocol.

   Albright said IAEA officials, based on the totality of the evidence given
   to them, have concluded that Iran a**has sufficient information to design
   and produce a workable implosion nuclear devicea** using highly enriched
   uranium as its fissile core. In the presentation, he described
   intelligence that points to a formalized and rigorous process for gaining
   all the necessary skills for weapons-building, using native talent as well
   as a generous helping of foreign expertise.

   a**The [intelligence] points to a comprehensive project structure and
   hierarchy with clear responsibilities, timelines and deliverables,a**
   Albright said, according to the notes from the presentation.

   Key outside assistance

   According to Albright, one key breakthrough that has not been publicly
   described was Irana**s success in obtaining design information for a
   device known as an R265 generator. The device is a hemispherical aluminum
   shell with an intricate array of high explosives that detonate with
   split-second precision. These charges compress a small sphere of enriched
   uranium or plutonium to trigger a nuclear chain reaction.

   Creating such a device is a formidable technical challenge, and Iran
   needed outside assistance in designing the generator and testing its
   performance, Albright said.

   According to the intelligence provided to the IAEA, key assistance in both
   areas was provided by Vyacheslav Danilenko, a former Soviet nuclear
   scientist who was contracted in the mid-1990s by Irana**s Physics Research
   Center, a facility linked to the countrya**s nuclear program. Documents
   provided to the U.N. officials showed that Danilenko offered assistance to
   the Iranians over at least five years, giving lectures and sharing
   research papers on developing and testing an explosives package that the
   Iranians apparently incorporated into their warhead design, according to
   two officials with access to the IAEAa**s confidential files.

   Danilenkoa**s role was judged to be so critical that IAEA investigators
   devoted considerable effort to obtaining his cooperation, the two
   officials said. The scientist acknowledged his role but said he thought
   his work was limited to assisting civilian engineering projects, the
   sources said.

   There is no evidence that Russian government officials knew of
   Danilenkoa**s activities in Iran. AE-mails requesting comment from Russian
   officials in Washington and Moscow were not returned. Efforts to reach
   Danilenko through his former company were not successful.

   Iran relied on foreign experts to supply mathematical formulas and codes
   for theoretical design work a** some of which appear to have originated in
   North Korea, diplomats and weapons experts say. Additional help appears to
   have come from the father of Pakistana**s nuclear program, Abdul Qadeer
   Khan, whose design for a device known as a neutron initiator was found in
   Iran, the sources said. Khan is known to have provided nuclear blueprints
   to Libya that included a neutron initiator, a device that shoots a stream
   of atomic particles into a nuclear weapona**s fissile core at the start of
   the nuclear chain reaction.

   One Iranian document provided to the IAEA portrayed Iranian scientists as
   discussing plans to conduct a four-year study of neutron initiators
   beginning in 2007, four years after Iran was said to have halted such
   research.

   a**It is unknown if it commenced or progressed as planned,a** Albright
   said.
   The disclosures come against a backdrop of new threats of military strikes
   on Iran. Israeli newspapers reported last week that there is high-level
   government support in Israel for a military attack on Irana**s nuclear
   installations.

   a**One of the problems with such open threats of military action is that
   it furthers the drift towards a military conflict and makes it more
   difficult to dial down tensions,a** said Peter Crail, a nonproliferation
   analyst with the Arms Control Association, a Washington advocacy group.
   a**It also risks creating an assumption that we can always end Irana**s
   nuclear program with a few airstrikes if nothing else works. Thata**s
   simply not the case.a**

   Special correspondent Thomas Erdbrink in Tehran contributed to this
   report.

     (Corr) Cleric asks IAEA head to avoid "lies"against Iran, save dignity
     of Agency

     At 0522 gmt, IRTV1 started airing the Id al-Adha prayer sermons in
     Tehran by Ayatollah Seyyed Ahmad Khatami live. Ayatollah Khatami listed
     10 types of plots that America and Israel have resorted to against Iran
     during the past 32 year.

     He said: "During the past 32 years, we have witnessed different types of
     plots of the global arrogance against us, especially of the US and its
     illegitimate child, the Zionist regime. I have written down 10 types of
     these [plots] - seven of which refer to the domestic field and three
     others the foreign field."

     He described "ethnic wars" as the first type of plots. Then he spoke
     about "assassinations" and said: "Over 12,000 people have been
     assassinated by the US and its agents in this country" He added that
     Iran possesses 100 "undeniable documents" that prove America's
     involvement in the assassinations inside the country and outside of it,
     in other countries.

     He referred to the "eight-year imposed war" (Iraq-Iran war) as the third
     type of plot and termed "influences up to the level of the president" as
     the fourth type of plots (reference to the 2009 presidential candidate
     Mirhoseyn Musavi).

     Describing "coups" as the fifth type of plot, he said that six coups
     were initiated by the US in Iran, all of which, he said were "foiled"
     with the help of God.

     He called the "soft warfare and"1388 sedition" (2009 post-poll protests)
     are the sixth and seventh types of America's and Israel's plots against
     Iran.

     Regarding the foreign types of plots, Khatami said: "Eight: Intrusion
     into Afghanistan aimed at creating a base against the Islamic Iran.
     Nine: Intrusion into Iraq to establish control over Iran. 10: New Middle
     East, which was aimed at curbing the wave of the huge Islamic
     Revolution."

     He added that all these plots were "foiled" with the help of God.

     Source: Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1, Tehran, in
     Persian 0525gmt 07 Nov 11

     BBC Mon Alert ME1 MEPol sh

              A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

     Top cleric lists 10 types of US, Israel "plots" against Iran

     At 0522 gmt, IRTV1 started airing the Id al-Adha prayer sermons in
     Tehran by Ayatollah Seyyed Ahmad Khatami live. Ayatollah Khatami listed
     10 types of plots that America and Israel have resorted to against Iran
     during the past 32 year.

     He said: "During the past 32 years, we have witnessed different types of
     plots of the global arrogance against us, especially of the US and its
     illegitimate child, the Zionist regime. I have written down 10 types of
     these [plots] - seven of which refer to the domestic field and three
     others the foreign field."

     He described "ethnic wars" as the first type of plots. Then he spoke
     about "assassinations" and said: "Over 12,000 people have been
     assassinated by the US and its agents in this country" He added that
     Iran possesses 100 "undeniable documents" that prove America's
     involvement in the assassinations inside the country and outside of it,
     in other countries.

     He referred to the "eight-year imposed war" (Iraq-Iran war) as the third
     type of plot and termed "influences up to the level of the president" as
     the fourth type of plots (reference to the 2009 presidential candidate
     Mirhoseyn Musavi).

     Describing "coups" as the fifth type of plot, he said that six coups
     were initiated by the US in Iran, all of which, he said were "foiled"
     with the help of God.

     He called the "soft warfare and"1388 sedition" (2009 post-poll protests)
     are the sixth and seventh types of America's and Israel's plots against
     Iran.

     Regarding the foreign types of plots, Khatami said: "Eight: Intrusion
     into Afghanistan aimed at creating a base against the Islamic Iran.
     Nine: Intrusion into Iraq to establish control over Iran. 10: New Middle
     East, which was aimed at curbing the wave of the huge Islamic
     Revolution."

     He added that all these plots were "foiled" with the help of God.

     Source: Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1, Tehran, in
     Persian 0522gmt 07 Nov 11

     BBC Mon Alert ME1 MEPol sh

              A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

       More anti-Western remarks attributed to Khatami [chris]

       Top clear asks IAEA chief to avoid "lies" against Iran, save dignity
       of Agency

       During the Id al-Adha sermons at Tehran University being aired live by
       IRTV1, Ayatollah Seyyed Ahmad Khatami referred to the upcoming IAEA
       report on Iran nuclear programme and addressed the Secretary-General
       of the Agency [Yukiya Amano], saying: "Do not insult the dignity of
       the International Atomic Energy Agency with your conduct."

       He added that if he [Amano] is used as a "week tool of the US" and
       acts against the "independent nation" of Iran and "publishes lies" in
       the form of a document then "whatever dignity is left of the Agency,
       will be wiped off."

       Thanking God for his blessings, he further said that all "plots"
       against Iran have always been "nullified".

       He added: "I explicitly tell America that the period of superpower has
       ended [for you]. America is being considered like an empty drum in the
       world, today. Neither are you the America of the past, nor the Islamic
       Iran is Iran of the past of during the Shah's time."

       He added that Iran today is a strong country that can confront any
       plot in a manner that will be a "lesson" for others.

       Source: Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 1, Tehran, in
       Persian 0525gmt 07 Nov 11

       BBC Mon Alert ME1 MEPol sh

              A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

    Iran foreign minister terms Bushehr plant "symbol" of Iran-Russia ties   
                                                                             
    Text of report by Iranian official government news agency IRNA website   
                                                                             
    Tehran, 6 November, IRNA: Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said here on 
    Sunday [6 November] that Bushehr nuclear power plant is a symbol of      
    Iran-Russia cooperation.                                                 
                                                                             
    He made the remark in a meeting with new Russian Ambassador to Iran Leon 
    Jagarian, who submitted a copy of his credentials to Salehi.             
                                                                             
    "Bushehr power plant as a symbol of Iran-Russia cooperation proves that  
    the two countries can exchange views and cooperate at regional and       
    international levels.                                                    
                                                                             
    Pointing to the Iran-Russia excellent relations, Salehi said             
    unfortunately the volume of trade exchange between the two countries is  
    not enough while they have high potentials in this regard.               
                                                                             
    Expressing Iran's readiness to increase the current volume of economic   
    exchange by 10bn dollars, he said the two countries can expand their     
    cooperation in such fields as politics, economy, trade, culture, oil and 
    gas and power plant construction.                                        
                                                                             
    Jagarian described the recent meeting between the Iranian and Russian    
    presidents in Astana, Kazakhstan as a new phase in the two countries'    
    relations.                                                               
                                                                             
    He also expressed his country's readiness to cooperate with Iran at      
    regional and international levels.                                       
                                                                             
    Source: Islamic Republic News Agency website, Tehran, in English 1613gmt 
    06 Nov 11                                                                
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEPol sh                                                     

              A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

         Not on IRNA english yet - CR

    Attacking Iran would make US, Israel "pay heavy price" - official        
                                                                             
    Excerpt from report by Iranian news channel Press TV website             
                                                                             
    A member of Iran's Assembly of Expert says that the United States and    
    Israel will have to pay a heavy price for any military attack on Iran's  
    nuclear facilities.                                                      
                                                                             
    Seyyed Mahmud Alavi told IRNA on Sunday [6 November] that Washington and 
    Tel Aviv are aware of the fact that putting their anti-Iran threats into 
    practice would cost them dearly, and thus they would not become involved 
    in such folly.                                                           
                                                                             
    He stated that the US and Israel know that such empty threats cannot     
    intimidate Iran and also know that they would receive a crushing         
    response if they ever attack the Islamic Republic.                       
                                                                             
    [Passage omitted: background information]                                
                                                                             
    Source: Press TV website, Tehran, in English 1419gmt 06 Nov 11           
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEPol sh                                                     

              A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

           Transcript Ehud Barak interview
           Page last updated at 11:09 GMT, Sunday, 6 November 2011
           PLEASE NOTE "THE ANDREW MARR SHOW" MUST BE CREDITED IF ANY PART OF
           THIS TRANSCRIPT IS USED
           http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/andrew_marr_show/9632770.stm
           JEREMY VINE:

           Now by any standards Ehud Barak has had an astonishing career
           serving his country. Israel's Prime Minister during the Camp David
           negotiations with Yasser Arafat now serves as both Deputy Prime
           Minister and Defence Minister in the current government. Before
           entering politics, he was one of the country's most decorated
           soldiers carrying out the kind of military ops that are now the
           stuff of legend among many Israelis. So a man of peace or a man of
           war? When I met him in London recently, I began by asking why his
           government has authorised the building of more settlements despite
           international criticism.

           EHUD BARAK:

           We are building in Jerusalem. It's our capital. We are building in
           the Jewish neighbourhoods of Jerusalem. It's a city of 700,000
           people. You have to build and we will not accept anyone has the
           right to intervene in this. And we a*|

           JEREMY VINE:

           (over) Well that is seen as speeding up, isn't it? That's seen as
           acceleration.

           EHUD BARAK:

           (over) No, it's not. No speeding up a*| It's about numbers and
           pace, numbers per unit time. When Olmert was Prime Minister five
           years ago, we were building our defence minister twice the rate we
           are building now. When I was Prime Minister ten years ago, we were
           building four times the rate we are building right now. So it's
           not about the pace.

           JEREMY VINE:

           But why not a*| Again it's about the symbolism. Why not just stop
           for a while because the other side see this as getting in the way,
           don't they?

           EHUD BARAK:

           No, no, the other side plays with it as a kind of manipulation to
           put certain preconditions into the dialogue. The reason that
           Olmert's government and my government could do it is because
           somehow we managed to convince the rest of the world that we are
           genuine in our talks and now we are facing more sophisticated
           Palestinian group which feels the zeitgeist behind them. They feel
           that they have good will from many international bodies, so they
           try to play with this issue of settlement. It really shouldn't
           matter because a*|

           JEREMY VINE:

           Well you said something very, very interesting there - the phrases
           you've used - where you say you're dealing with a sophisticated
           Palestinian leadership now and they're very zeitgeisty and I
           couldn't have put it better myself in these questions. They're
           getting world opinion behind them, aren't they?

           EHUD BARAK:

           Yuh, yuh. We have to work properly to allow our people, our kind
           of spokesmen to talk more often to others, but it won't solve the
           issue. It cannot a*|

           JEREMY VINE:

           (over) Are you frustrated at that?

           EHUD BARAK:

           I am a little bit frustrated by the fact that we cannot convince
           even some of our friends.

           JEREMY VINE:

           Okay, just to be clear. You accept that it strengthens Hamas if
           you go on building these settlements or not?

           EHUD BARAK:

           I don't think it relates to Hamas. Hamas basically is challenging
           Abu Mazen and the Palestinian authority. They are turning to
           terror. We cannot negotiate with them. Hamas are shooting at us
           rockets. You know just last week we got dozens of rockets in our
           southern part of the country. One man, father of four, was killed.
           That's something that cannot go together with peacemaking.

           JEREMY VINE:

           Let me change the subject.

           EHUD BARAK:

           (over) So it will be a challenge for Abu Mazen to take control
           over his own political system.

           JEREMY VINE:
           Alright, alright, I want to just move on because we haven't got
           much time. I want to talk to you about Iran as well. And I gather
           if we had the Israeli newspapers here and we opened them up, we
           would see that everyone in Israel is now thinking that you're
           getting ready to attack Iran. Is that right? Is that what people
           are saying?

           EHUD BARAK:

           Believe me, don't a*| I do not try to underestimate the nature of
           the Iranian threat. That's a major threat for the stability of the
           whole region, probably of the whole world. A nuclear Iran - and
           they are determined to reach nuclear military capability - can
           open a major arms race, nuclear arms race in the whole Middle
           East. It can change the effectiveness of their supporting and
           their co-sponsoring of terror all around the region. They can a*|

           JEREMY VINE:

           (over) Which is why the Israeli papers are saying aha, you're
           about to strike on them.

           EHUD BARAK:

           No, but I am telling it for years now. And they will intimidate
           neighbours in a much more effective way, especially when America
           and others are moving out of the region. I hope that the IAEA
           Report next week will tell the whole world a little bit more
           explicitly what they are really doing in regard to their nuclear
           plan.

           JEREMY VINE:

           (over) This is the narrative that's coming together. It's the
           missile test. It's the long range bombing plan. It's the IAEA
           Report which you mentioned. So they may say that Iran is getting
           closer to a bomb.

           EHUD BARAK:

           We strongly believe that sanctions are effective or could be
           effective if they are little and paralysing enough, that diplomacy
           could work if enough unity could be synchronised between the major
           players, but that no option should be removed from the table.

           JEREMY VINE:

           You have an amazing military record, and for those who don't know
           it, 19... - correct me if I'm wrong here - 1972 led the mission to
           free hostages on a Sabena flight; 1973, I read somewhere you
           dressed as a woman to assassinate - you're nodding - members of
           the PLO.

           EHUD BARAK:

           (over) Not as a hobby, yuh.

           JEREMY VINE:

           Okay. A scene in the film Munich reflected that. You were involved
           in Operation Entebbe in 1976; helped dismantle the Palestinian
           terror cell known as Black September. I'm thinking you're not
           really into diplomacy here. You would like to attack Iran.

           EHUD BARAK:

           No, I was also Foreign Affairs Minister of Israel and Prime
           Minister. In the last 15 years I didn't shot a single shot at
           anyone and I played a lot round the diplomatic saloons and the TV
           interviews as well. You know it's too serious. Israel is there. A
           person cannot choose his parents and a nation cannot choose its
           neighbours. We are living in a tough neighbourhood. No mercy for
           the weak, no second opportunity for those who cannot defend
           themselves. We would love to have the Canadians as our neighbours,
           but unfortunately the Americans got them. It's a tough
           neighbourhood and we have to be strong.

           JEREMY VINE:

           (over) One more because if you suddenly attack Iran next week, I
           want to make sure we've asked every question here. Have you got
           British support for that - for flying over them and dropping a
           bomb on their nuclear reactors?

           EHUD BARAK:

           I'm not going even to respond to this. May I say we are not a*|
           don't worry about your next week programme, but the Iranian
           challenge is serious. This is something that should be prevented
           from happening. We have to stay there. We are strong. Israel is
           the strongest country a thousand miles around Jerusalem. We plan
           to remain the strongest country around. But we are at the same
           time peaceful. We are ready to make peace at any moment with any
           one of our neighbours.

           JEREMY VINE:

           So pretty cautious. Ehud Barak there, Israel's Defence Minister.
           No options ruled out on Iran.

           INTERVIEW ENDS

 --
 Clint Richards
 Global Monitor
 clint.richards@stratfor.com
 cell: 81 080 4477 5316
 office: 512 744 4300 ex:40841

           Iran Calligrapher's Association of North America, according to
           Google. Possibly not the entity being referred to below, though
           [chris]

           No idea what ICANA is... - CR

    Nuclear talks possible only if IAEA submits "honest" report - Iran       
    official                                                                 
                                                                             
    Text of report by Iranian news channel Press TV website                  
                                                                             
    An Iranian lawmaker says Iran has nothing to hide regarding its nuclear  
    programme and Tehran will only participate in negotiations if the UN     
    atomic agency is "honest" in its reports.                                
                                                                             
    Deputy Chairman of Iran's Majlis (parliament) National Security and      
    Foreign Policy Committee Esma'il Kowsari said that if the International  
    Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) resorts to deception then Iran "will set     
    conditions for talks."                                                   
                                                                             
    He went on to say that so long as the IAEA submits to the will of        
    arrogant powers particularly Washington, the agency's reports will       
    always be compiled to portray Iran in a negative light.                  
                                                                             
    "While the US has between 7,000 to 10,000 nuclear warheads and no other  
    country has atrocities such as Nagasaki and Hiroshima on its record, the 
    agency makes no effort to act against it (the US) and does not even dare 
    write a report against it," ICANA quoted him as saying on Sunday.        
                                                                             
    The IAEA director-general Yukiya Amano is scheduled to submit his new    
    report on Iran's nuclear case to IAEA member states on 8 November 2011.  
                                                                             
    However, Amano's visit to Washington for talks with US officials ahead   
    of the publication of the report has cast grave suspicion over its       
    objectivity and sincerity.                                               
                                                                             
    Iran has always rejected US allegations that it is pursuing a military   
    nuclear program and asserted the right to develop and acquire nuclear    
    technology for peaceful purposes as a signatory to the Non-Proliferation 
    Treaty [NPT].                                                            
                                                                             
    Source: Press TV website, Tehran, in English 1925gmt 06 Nov 11           
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEPol sh                                                     

              A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

           On 11/6/11 9:43 PM, Chris Farnham wrote:

             al-Ahkbar isn't in english - CR

               Iran's Ahmadinejad defiant as U.S. raises heat-paper
               http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/irans-ahmadinejad-defiant-as-us-raises-heat-paper/
               06 Nov 2011 23:19

               CAIRO, Nov 7 (Reuters) - The United States fears Iran's
               growing military power because it is now able to compete with
               Israel and the West, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
               said in comments carried by an Egyptian newspaper on Monday.

               Responding to a toughening stance from the United States and
               Israel against Tehran, Ahmadinejad accused Washington of
               inventing conspiracies to discredit Iran and sowing discord
               with its near neighbour Saudi Arabia.

               "Yes, we have military capabilities that are different from
               any other country in the region," Egyptian daily al-Akhbar
               cited Ahmadinejad as saying. "Iran is increasing in capability
               and advancement and therefore we are able to compete with
               Israel and the West and especially the United States."

               "The U.S. fears Iran's capability," he told the paper. "Iran
               will not permit (anyone from making) a move against it."
               Iran's Islamic rulers, who say Israel has no right to exist,
               deny accusations that they are seeking nuclear weapons and
               have warned they will respond to any attacks by striking at
               Israel and U.S. interests in the Gulf.

               A senior U.S. military official said on Friday Iran had become
               the biggest threat to the United States and Israel's president
               said the military option to stop the Islamic republic from
               obtaining nuclear weapons was nearer.

               Ahmadinejad repeated that Iran does not own a nuclear bomb,
               but said Israel's end was inevitable.
               The U.N. nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, is expected this week to
               issue its most detailed report yet on research in Iran seen as
               geared to developing atomic bombs.

               "It is Israel that has about 300 nuclear warheads. Iran is
               only keen to have nuclear capability for peaceful means," he
               said, accusing Washington of lumping Iran with Syria, the
               Islamist Hamas movement that rules Gaza and Hezbollah in
               Lebanon.

               The U.S. portrays those four as "the Axis of Evil to save the
               Zionist entity (Israel). But the Zionists are bound to go out
               of existence," he said.

               Responding to a U.S. claim that Iran was involved in a plot to
               kill the Saudi ambassador to Washington, Ahmadinejad said:
               "Iran is farthest from thinking of carrying out such crimes
               but the U.S. is always inventing conspiracies against Iran".

               "The U.S. fears any friendship between us and Saudi Arabia and
               therefore incites disagreements," he said. "To stop the U.S.
               in its tracks we must deepen the elements of friendship... We
               are ready for this and the relation between Saudi and Iran
               already exists and has not been cut off." (Reporting by Marwa
               Awad; Writing by Tom Pfeiffer; Editing by Matthew Jones)

 --
 Clint Richards
 Global Monitor
 clint.richards@stratfor.com
 cell: 81 080 4477 5316
 office: 512 744 4300 ex:40841

 --
 Clint Richards
 Global Monitor
 clint.richards@stratfor.com
 cell: 81 080 4477 5316
 office: 512 744 4300 ex:40841

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Chris Farnham
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Australia Mobile: 0423372241
 Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967
   www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-07 22:54:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-15 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5100332_re-g3-iran-un-mil-iran-iaea-report-leaked-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>sean.noonan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>abe.selig@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>jacob.shapiro@att.blackberry.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5101537</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - US/UK/French view on Libya operation
</title>
    <description>   I don't think anyone really thinks any European country has proven
   military capability... Also, it is not just military capability. It is
   also about the ability to lead on foreign policy.

   And good questions on where this goes from here.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Mark Schroeder" &lt;mark.schroeder@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: secure@stratfor.com
   Sent: Friday, March 18, 2011 10:05:39 PM
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - US/UK/French view on Libya operation

   in Europe itself, doesn't France already have a fairly proven military
   capability? Among the Europeans, who doesn't think they're still a capable
   power? They have their CDG, their advanced fighter jets, their capable
   army, their foreign legion -- who can match them among the Europeans?

   Germany doesn't need them to demonstrate an ability to intervene in Libya.
   Might that just compel the Germans to think that they will need to
   demonstrate they can go intervene somewhere? If France goes and ups the
   stakes, where does this get France in the next few years, and then what
   does Germany then start to calculate?

   On 3/18/11 9:55 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

     This part is awesome: The French are more complicated.  They dont' need
     the energy. The French had a multi-billion dollar contract signed with
     Ghadafi for 40 Rafale jets, that was going to be the saving grace for
     the French defense industry. Then the French (so he claims) hear about
     AQIM threats backed by Ghadafi on French targets, and they got pissed.
     Sarkozy painted himself in a corner. More than that, though, (and this
     is what the british and the french guy agreed on,) was that this was
     France really, really wanting to show that it can DO this. To prove its
     relevance.
     This is something that I have said as well in a few analysis we wrote on
     this issue in the past few weeks -- and have had an itch for the past
     two years that the French were really really looking for an opportunity
     to do this (remember declaring war on AQIM and penning that military
     agreement with the U.K.). It is part of trying to balance a rising
     Germany... proving that you still matter in military matters, that when
     it comes to "war", you lead Europe. This is not just about ego. If
     Europe is to become a "player" it can't all be just widgets and euros,
     someone has to have guns. So France has wanted, for the past couple of
     years, to make that statement. And I don't think this is about Sarko's
     ego either... France simply needs to assert that the leadership duo of
     Europe is a duo and it's not just Germany alone.

     Not sure this accomplishes it... but I do think this has informed their
     thinking on everything from selling advanced naval tech to Russia to
     penning that military agreement with the U.K.

     First, France wants to lead the European response on the crisis in
     Libya. As Berlin wrestles economic and political control of the eurozone
     and the European Union from Paris a** to which Sarkozy has thus far
     acquiesced for lack of any real alternative a** France wants to reassert
     its leadership of Europe on foreign policy.
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110311-european-disunity-libya

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: secure@stratfor.com
     Sent: Friday, March 18, 2011 6:51:05 PM
     Subject: INSIGHT - US/UK/French view on Libya operation

     from a closed door mtg with a few US, one UK and one French air force
     colonels
     USAF could not be more thrilled with the resolution. They are
     practically jumping out of their seats to do this operation --- it's a
     dream op, as they call it - flat terrain, close to the coast, easy
     targets. no prob. 
     What's funny is they're only looking at the 'op' as preventing Ghadafi
     from retaking Benghazi. These guys aren't the decision-makers,
     obviously, but the US guys are simply not looking at the 'what's next'
     question. They brush it off as, we'll get the rebel forces into a mean
     fighting force, they'll handle the rest.  We took a group of rag tag
     Afghans who were repressed into nothing and turned them into fighters,
     why can't we do it with Libyans. (uhh...)  They were amazed at my
     skepticism.
     The Egyptians are on the ground, arming and training the rebels. 
     From their perspective this whole operation is a UK-French-driven
     campaign. The US was in many ways pushed into it. The resolution was
     almost completely drafted by the Brits.
     The UK guy says UK is driven by energy interests in this campaign. BP
     post-oil spill is suffering in US&lt; other options are to expand in
     Siberia (problems with Russia), Vietnam and .. libya.  They see a
     Ghadafi ouster as the best way to meet their energy interests.
     The French are more complicated.  They dont' need the energy. The French
     had a multi-billion dollar contract signed with Ghadafi for 40 Rafale
     jets, that was going to be the saving grace for the French defense
     industry. Then the French (so he claims) hear about AQIM threats backed
     by Ghadafi on French targets, and they got pissed. Sarkozy painted
     himself in a corner. More than that, though, (and this is what the
     british and the french guy agreed on,) was that this was France really,
     really wanting to show that it can DO this. To prove its relevance.
     The Germans are opposed, but they all commented on how Germany
     abstained. Germany has the stigma of being too close to Russia these
     days and they think Merkel is trying to balance a bit more with the US
     and plus wanted to look good in a leadership position in the UNSC
     (acting responsibly, etc. instead of flat out voting against.)
     The French guy was pissed b/c, as they claim, the French and the Brits
     and the US air force all ready to go. They can start bombing within
     hours. But, they started bitching about the petty bureaucracy.  The US
     Navy now wants to make sure it gets involved and are saying Tuesday to
     get into position, maybe Wed start the operation
     ** Note - George believes this is the US deliberately buying time and
     tryign to bluff ghadafi into a negotiation. They don't want this war.
     Certainly Gates doesn't.
     This has to be a US=-led operation. No question.  All their excrcises
     and the way NATO is configured only allows for a US-led operation. They
     have yet to sort out all the ohter command and control issues. It sounds
     like it'll be a giant mess.
     There's also some fighting going on over what anti-air defense systems
     to employ since the US has some new fancy stuff and they want to 'give
     it away' or reveal their capabilities in something like this.  This is
     all central European air defenses anyway. They seem extremely confident
     in the intel they have on EADs.  Not so much about who's who in the
     opposiiton (but let the agency, SF guys, allies like Egypt worry about
     that.)
     So, all in all, a lot of stereotypes confirmed. The Air Force is trying
     to jump the gun, saying piece of cake, we got this, who cares about what
     happens next.  I'm sure the army is thinking you're out of your mind.
     we're not getting ourselves into this.  US appears to be buying time and
     NATO unity on this operation is not assured. NATO may deploy a few jets
     - keeping close to the mandate of 'protecting civilians' - if Ghadafi
     doesn't shoot, NATO won't shoot (french guy seemed to be pretty clear
     that the French wouldn't act if Q held to the ceasefire.)
     So... maybe we'll have a weekend? I probably just jinxed us.

     --
     Marko Papic

     STRATFOR Analyst
     C: + 1-512-905-3091
     marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-03-19 04:15:13</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 07:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5101537_re-insight-us-uk-french-view-on-libya-operation-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mark.schroeder@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5107155</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT - AUSTRALIA - Stability of the OZ government - CN65
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE: CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen
   I know you don't generally cover domestic politics (a rule more honoured
   int he breach than in the observance sometimes) but this should interest
   your guys:
   http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/alp-rallies-to-salvage-asylum-deal-tony-crook-to-be-focus-of-attention/story-fn59niix-1226162536208
   Basically, the government is on the verge of collapse.  It is a minority
   government to begin with, but it has been run incredibly badly.
   We are now at the point where there is little that can be believed in
   terms of the government's ability to deliver, even on Budget Bills.  One
   of the questions Obama needs to answer is whether any international
   agreements with Australia can be assured of being honoured.
</description>
    <date>2011-10-10 04:05:14</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5107155_-alpha-insight-australia-stability-of-the-oz-government-cn65.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>clint.richards@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5114217</id>
    <title>Re: hello from Stratfor
</title>
    <description>Dear Da Pimenta Kajocolo:

Thank you for your response. It is good to hear from you and of your
interest in the report that we published on Angolan-South African
cooperation. Just a few minutes ago I sent you a copy of that report in
an e-mail. Please let me know if I can be of further assistance. I look
forward to cooperation with you.

Sincerely,

--Mark


On 1/22/11 12:23 PM, Antonio Pimenta wrote:
&gt; Dear Mr. Mark Schroeder
&gt; Thks for your atention
&gt;
&gt; Just to inform that I ill printer the magazine, only nex month. On this regard, I would like to ask you, if is possible, to writing again the article,to talk about the result of Dos Santos visita at South Africa. I would like  to publish it on magazine.
&gt;
&gt; Best regards
&gt;
&gt; Da Pimenta Kajocolo
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; --- On Mon, 1/17/11, Mark Schroeder &lt;mark.schroeder@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:
&gt;
&gt;&gt; From: Mark Schroeder &lt;mark.schroeder@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt; Subject: hello from Stratfor
&gt;&gt; To: "Antonio Pimenta" &lt;pimentazm@yahoo.com&gt;
&gt;&gt; Date: Monday, January 17, 2011, 1:08 PM
&gt;&gt; Dear Antonio Pimenta:
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Greetings again from Stratfor, in Austin, Texas, USA. I
&gt;&gt; hope this finds
&gt;&gt; you well.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; It was about a month ago when you wrote in asking to
&gt;&gt; re-publish an
&gt;&gt; analysis we wrote on cooperation between Angola and South
&gt;&gt; Africa. I just
&gt;&gt; wanted to follow up to see if you were successful in
&gt;&gt; publishing that
&gt;&gt; analysis, and to get your thoughts on cooperation between
&gt;&gt; the two
&gt;&gt; countries.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Thank you for keeping in touch.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Sincerely,
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; --Mark
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; -- 
&gt;&gt; Mark Schroeder
&gt;&gt; Director of Sub Saharan Africa Analysis
&gt;&gt; STRATFOR, a global intelligence company
&gt;&gt; Tel +1.512.744.4079
&gt;&gt; Fax +1.512.744.4334
&gt;&gt; Email: mark.schroeder@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt; Web: www.stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;
&gt;
&gt;       
</description>
    <date>2011-01-24 15:38:36</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-06 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5114217_re-hello-from-stratfor-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mark.schroeder@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>pimentazm@yahoo.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5114800</id>
    <title>Re: Fwd: [Africa] Fw: [OS] SOUTH AFRICA/CT- Wikileaks exposes SA
 spy boss
</title>
    <description>   Ok I re-read the reference to Oct. 2009 and I may have read it wrong. It
   could be read instead of cables from Oct., Shaik was appointed SASS head
   then.

   On 1/25/11 2:17 PM, Anya Alfano wrote:

     Hey Mark,
     No, I don't see anything from October 2009.  I was looking back at the
     article you posted below and I think the three cables I sent contain all
     of the quotes listed, but so far, I don't see any cables released that
     month.
     Anya 

     On 1/25/11 3:10 PM, Mark Schroeder wrote:

       Thanks, Anya.

       Could you check again for any cable from Oct. 2009 in particular?

       Thanks again.

       On 1/25/11 2:05 PM, Anya Alfano wrote:

         Found it -- more about Zuma than Shaik, though.

         Confidential cable from the US Embassy Pretoria to the Secretary of
         State Washington DC (and others), June 4 2009:

         SUBJECT: ZUMA'S CABINET IS BRILLIANT POLITICALLY, BUT WILL IT BE
         EFFECTIVE?

         PRETORIA

         Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR RAYMOND L. BROWN FOR REASONS 1.4
         (B) AND (D).

         Summary

         1. Newly elected President Jacob Zuma's Cabinet is settling in
         following the swearing in ceremony on May 11.

         Most political analysts and pundits have praised Zuma's selections
         -- lauding some for their managerial skills, some for their
         willingness to bring new ideas to government, and some for their
         political power within the ruling tripartite alliance. Although the
         Cabinet choices reflect a wide range of experiences and political
         alignments, it remains to be seen whether some new ministerial teams
         -- notably in education and home affairs -- will be effective in
         addressing the country's biggest societal issues. End Summary.

         ANC, Zuma Makes Their Moves

         2. President Zuma announced his Cabinet selections last month
         following lengthy consultations with the African National Congress
         (ANC). Zuma's discussions with the ANC over Cabinet composition and
         size suggest that the new President is being true to his word that
         he will rely on as many players as possible when making decisions.
         (Note: Some would argue that he was too true to his word, as Zuma
         arrived at the press conference to announce the Cabinet thirty
         minutes late.

         His delay was reportedly because of last minute infighting within
         the ANC and the tripartite alliance -- composed of the ANC, the
         South African Communist Party (SACP) and the trade union federation
         COSATU) -- over Cabinet choices. End Note.) The ANC and Zuma ensured
         that the Cabinet is balanced between those generally seen as
         populist and those generally described as pro-business. Moreover,
         the party and Zuma made sure to accommodate some officials often
         seen as close to former President Thabo Mbeki such as Charles
         Nqakula and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.

         However, this cabinet is very pro-Zuma, made up of some of his
         closest political supporters and members of the alliance. The
         message that Zuma reportedly sought to send is that there will be
         general continuance of macro-policy structures (albeit with some
         changes to the ministries' composition) with some changes to
         micro-policy formulation and implementation.

         Choices Draw Praise, But Questions Remain

         3. (SBU) Reactions to Zuma's Cabinet selections have been largely
         positive. Alec Russell, author of "South Africa After Mandela,"
         noted that investors would breathe a sigh of relief and "say it
         looks like he intends to keep macro-economic policies on the same
         track." He stated, "It says, 'I'm not a scary populist who's going
         to send policy sharply to the left.' It says, 'I listen to business
         and I'm aware of their concerns.'" Political analyst William Gumede
         noted that "he got it right on the economic cluster of ministries."
         He further said, "It does say clearly that he wants to get the
         economy right. That's where his priorities are." University of
         Pretoria political scientist Roland Henwood noted that the Cabinet
         selections were generally outstanding. However, he related that even
         though Zuma's choices were brilliant politically, there are serious
         questions about how effective the ministers will be at questions
         about how effective the ministers will be at delivery. He quipped,
         "(Basic Education Minister) Angie Motshekga and (Correctional
         Services Minister) Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula are disastrous at
         delivering quick results.

         Also, I have serious questions about whether (International
         Relations Minister) Maite Nkoana-Mashabane is up to the task of
         leading a professional foreign policy." There are questions about
         how effective Zuma's appointments would be in addressing social
         issues. Gumede noted that while the appointments are impressive in
         balancing party factions, they are less impressive in terms of
         improving delivery. He stated, "People see the Home Affairs ministry
         as absolute incompetence (at home) and abroad as well (sic). It's
         just a lax department. Everything from passports to travel
         documents, everything needs to be fixed. One would have expected
         someone more inspiring (than Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma). We didn't get
         that." (Note: It is noteworthy that one of Minister Dlamini-Zuma's
         first statements about her new ministry was to clearly admit that it
         was riddled with corruption that allowed its travel, identity and
         other documents to be produced illegally. End Note.)

         Cabinet Picks Highlight Key Trends

         4. While some questions remain over whether the new Cabinet can
         deliver, Zuma's selections demonstrate a number of important trends
         worth watching during the next five years. Each of the trends below
         will have implications both for the 2011 municipal election and the
         2012 ruling party congress:

         -- The presidency will be larger, more powerful, and will have more
         formal advisers in the President's office than there were under
         Mbeki. This will be a key development as businessmen, diplomats, and
         statesmen seek to win access to work with the Zuma government. In
         addition to Collins Chabane and Trevor Manuel, Zuma will look to
         former Minister of Defense Nqakula on political matters, Mandisi
         Mpahlwa on economic affairs, Lindiwe Zulu on international affairs,
         Ayanda Dlodlo on affairs related to Parliament, and Bonisiwe Makhene
         on legal issues. Under the Mbeki and Motlanthe administrations,
         Nqakula served both as Minister of Safety and Security and Minister
         of Defense. Mpahlwa served as Minister of Trade and Industry and
         Deputy Minister of Finance in previous administrations. Zulu, a
         member of the ANC's National Executive Committee, served as South
         African Ambassador to Brazil until December 2008. Dlodlo is also a
         member of the ANC's National Executive Committee and is the
         Secretary General of the Military Affairs Association; she has close
         ties to Lindiwe Sisulu. Makhene is currently deputy chief state law
         adviser in the Department of Justice and Constitutional Development,
         but will be seconded to the Presidency later this month. According
         to informal Zuma adviser Mo Shaik, the informal advisers were
         selected as concessions to "keep them quiet." The only person Shaik
         considers close to Zuma is Zulu on international affairs.

         -- Not only will there be more formal presidential advisers, there
         also will be more ministers. The ANC expanded the Cabinet from 28 to
         34 ministries. This will be an important trend to watch because it
         could create a bureaucracy larger than anything that South Africa
         has seen since 1994. Some political commentators, including Roland
         Henwood, claim that Zuma has "Africanized the Cabinet." The argument
         goes that Zuma increased the size of the Cabinet to accommodate his
         allies, but in doing so has created what could be a potentially
         unwieldy policy process similar to what has happened in other
         African countries.

         -- The ANC wants to retain Limpopo Province's loyalty. This will be
         a key goal as the ruling party seeks to ward off opponents in the
         2011 election and as the ANC prepares for its next party congress.
         Several of the senior players in Zuma's government hail from
         Limpopo, which is a strategically important province that helped
         sway ANC members to Zuma at the December 2007 ruling party congress.
         Limpopo also promises to be a key battleground province during the
         2011 municipal elections. The Congress of the People has
         consistently said Limpopo is a province it can win and can
         consistently said Limpopo is a province it can win and can build the
         local structures necessary to govern at the municipal level. Cabinet
         players with connections to Limpopo include Chabane, Aaron
         Motsoaledi, Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, Richard Baloyi, Joe Phaahla, and
         Rejoice Mabhudafhasi.

         -- Zuma, under the auspices of the ANC, wants some KwaZulu Natal
         allies kept close. This will be a key trend because there already
         are questions over some of Zuma's business deals in the past, many
         of which have dogged the President since the conviction of his
         former business associate Schabir Shaik. Zuma's Cabinet includes
         several leaders that he forged connections to during his time as a
         premier in KwaZulu Natal. The ministerial team includes Ebrahim
         Patel, Musa Nhlanhla Nene, Malusi Gigaba, Jeff Radebe, Nathi
         Mthethwa, Roy Padayachie, Siyabonga Cwele, Sbusiso Ndebele, and
         Noluthando Mayende-Sibiya.

         -- The ANC is unafraid, at least for now, of competing centers of
         power. This is perhaps the most important trend, but the one that
         may change the most over time. The party will have ministers with
         strong personalities in the Cabinet, such as Minister of Planning in
         the Presidency Manuel and Minister of Home Affairs Dlamini-Zuma,
         along with strong leaders from Luthuli House such as ANC Secretary
         General Gwede Mantashe and ANC Treasurer Matthews Phosa. Although
         the ANC seems satisfied with this arrangement, such a dynamic is
         likely to be key in setting the stage for succession battles ahead
         of the ANC's 2012 ruling party congress. If power in Luthuli House
         outweighs power in government (as many political analysts predict),
         Mantashe, Phosa, or Baleka Mbete may hold the inside track over
         whether Zuma stays on as party leader or whether a new leader
         emerges ahead of the next election. Both the Congress of South
         African Trade Unions (COSATU) and the South African Communist Party
         (SACP) also seem unafraid of competing centers of power, but perhaps
         less satisfied with the arrangement than the ANC. Some of the most
         visible leaders from the tripartite alliance (Jeremy Cronin, Blade
         Nzimande, and Rob Davies) will be serving in the Cabinet, but COSATU
         Secretary General Zwelenzima Vavi has opted to remain outside the
         government. Similarly, SACP plans to hold leadership discussions
         about whether having Nzimande in the government will remain viable
         for the communist party over the longer term.

         Opportunities for Engagement

         5. The new team offers the United States new opportunities for
         continuing and future engagement. New Health Minister Aaron
         Motsoaledi wants to continue work started by Barbara Hogan to
         address the country's ongoing battle against HIV/AIDS, according to
         most political analysts and leading South African commentators. The
         new ministry of Basic Education wants to improve the quality of
         South African primary education, and Zuma has said that he wants
         that body to establish a "Head Start" program similar to the one in
         place in the United States. Even though Motshekga is viewed as a
         weak choice for heading the ministry, deputy Enver Surty and Gauteng
         Minister in the Executive Committee Barbara Creecy are capable
         bureaucrats and have experience working with international partners
         to make progress on core policy goals. Also, the new Ministry of
         Police intends to address crime and, specifically, crime prevention
         ahead of the 2010 World Cup. Beyond these areas, there may be
         avenues for greater cooperation in public enterprises,
         transportation, and higher education.

         Comment

         6. Zuma and the ANC delivered a Cabinet that addresses the political
         balance of power between the party and the government. Political
         analysts say that Zuma's team has some solid managers who can bring
         new ideas to government while at the same time keep the tripartite
         alliance as close as it has been in years. Despite this optimism,
         however, there are serious questions about whether the new team can
         deliver better than the old one. In some areas, like Public
         Enterprises under Barbara Hogan and Water and Environmental Affairs
         under Patience Sonjica, there is reason for hope. In other areas,
         however, like Basic Education, Correctional Services, and Home
         Affairs, critics already are worried that QServices, and Home
         Affairs, critics already are worried that little will change.
         Perhaps the single greatest determinant for how well the Zuma
         government functions -- and what happens in 2011, 2012, and beyond
         -- will be whether the Cabinet and the ANC can work together without
         one impeding or superseding the other.

         LA LIME

         On 1/25/11 1:35 PM, Mark Schroeder wrote:

           Thanks, Anya -- though could you see if there are any cables from
           the Oct. 2009 period? The news story mentioned some from that time
           period also.

           Thanks.

           On 1/25/11 12:25 PM, Anya Alfano wrote:

             Actually, one more --

             Confidential cable from the US Embassy Pretoria to the Secretary
             of State, Washington DC (and others), September 10 2008:

             SUBJECT: ZUMA ADVISOR THREATENS TO EXPOSE POLITICAL SKELETONS
             (C-AL8-01396)

             Classified By: Political Counselor Raymond L. Brown. Reasons
             1.4(b) an d (d).

             1. On 28 August, Zuma advisor Mo Shaik told PolOff that Zuma's
             legal team intends to subpoena "everyone" if Zuma loses his bid
             to have his case reexamined. Shaik specifically named President
             Mbeki, suspended National Police Chief Jackie Selebi, former and
             Acting Head of National Director of Public Prosecutions (NDPP)
             Vusi Pikoli and Mokotedi Mpshe, and former speaker of Parliament
             Frene Ginwala as potential witnesses. Shaik complained that all
             of these people know Zuma is innocent and that he does not
             understand why they have not come to Zuma's defense before now.

             2. Shaik also spoke at length about Zuma's current legal case,
             complaining that the facts in Zuma's case have been gathered and
             interpreted by National Prosecuting Authority only as a means of
             obtaining a conviction and preventing Zuma from becoming
             President, and not as a means of seeking the truth. Therefore,
             he said, the question is not whether the rule of law should
             prevail, but whether its abuse should continue. All Zuma is
             asking is the chance to explain to the NPA the facts gathered
             against him, he said. When PolOff asked if this wasn't what the
             trial was for, he told her she was not listening. Then in a very
             slow and patient tone, Shaik again "explained" that all the NPA
             has to do is treat the Zuma case in an "impartial,
             non-political, truth-seeking manner, then they (the NPA) will
             come to understand Zuma is innocent." (NOTE: In a recent
             newspaper editorial, Shaik argued a similar case but added that
             his brother Schabir Shaik's financial contributions to Zuma were
             given as a "comrade and friend," and not given with criminal
             intentions.

             The court's decision in May to have Shaik's assets forfeited in
             light of the corrupt relationship with Zuma sharply contradicts
             Shaik's reasoning. END NOTE)

             3. NOTE: On 12 September, Zuma will learn whether or not the
             state's decision to prosecute him without consulting him was
             legal. If Zuma loses the case, his trial for corruption,
             racketeering, tax evasion, and fraud will proceed, though a
             court date has still not been agreed upon by the state and
             defense. The thrust of Zuma's case rests on section 179(5)(d) of
             the Constitution which states that the NDPP may review a
             decision to prosecute after consulting with the relevant
             director of public prosecutions (DPP) and after taking
             representations from the accused. Shaik and Zuma's lawyers argue
             the Constitution guarantees the right to make representation
             when the NPA reverses a decision, and that Zuma was not given
             the opportunity when NPA "reversed" its decision and decided to
             recharge Zuma in December 2007. The state has argued that the
             decision to recharge Zuma did not amount to a reversal and that
             the law was not designed to protect the accused, but rather to
             protect the rights of the DPPs having their decisions overturned
             by the NDPP without consideration. END NOTE.

             4. COMMENT: As usual, Shaik treated PolOff as a friend, a child,
             a confident, and an adversary all in the same conversation. He
             always shares insights into the motivations and strategies of
             the Zuma camp, but also expects obvious respect and gratitude
             for it. PolOff does not know if Shaik meets with other
             diplomats, but presumes his contact within the diplomatic circle
             is limited. The Australian High Commissioner mentioned he had
             met Shaik once and Shaik QCommissioner mentioned he had met
             Shaik once and Shaik admitted he spoke to the Norwegians but did
             not say if this was on a regular or one-time basis. PolOff also
             knows Shaik used to meet with the French, but cut them off after
             a French diplomat insulted him immediately before the ANC
             conference at Polokwane. The Irish Ambassador asked PolOff to
             facilitate a meeting after seeing Shaik and PolOff together in a
             restaurant, but Shaik refused, telling PolOff she should guard
             her contacts more closely.

             END COMMENT.

             BOST

             On 1/25/11 1:11 PM, Mark Schroeder wrote:

               Hi Anya,

               Is there any chance you would know where to look to find this
               original cable? Thanks for any help.

               --Mark

               -------- Original Message --------

                Subject: [Africa] Fw: [OS] SOUTH AFRICA/CT- Wikileaks exposes 
                         SA spy boss                                          
                   Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2011 16:53:10 +0000                      
                   From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;               
               Reply-To: Africa AOR &lt;africa@stratfor.com&gt;                     
                     To: Africa AOR &lt;africa@stratfor.com&gt;                     

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

               From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
               Sender: os-bounces@stratfor.com
               Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2011 10:37:07 -0600
               To: The OS List&lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;
               ReplyTo: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;
               Subject: [OS] SOUTH AFRICA/CT- Wikileaks exposes SA spy boss
               Wikileaks exposes SA spy boss
               2011-01-23 09:19
               http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/Wikileaks-exposes-SA-spy-boss-20110123

               Johannesburg - An explosive Wikileaks cable claims that spy
               boss and President Jacob Zuma confidante Moe Shaik threatened
               to expose the "political skeletons" of Zuma's enemies and
               reveals that he was cultivated by the Americans as a key
               informant within the Zuma camp.

               The fresh revelations are likely to shake the Zuma
               administration as they involve one of the president's key
               allies and the man tasked with running the country's secret
               service. They give new insight into the bitter battle which
               took place between Zuma's allies and those aligned to former
               President Thabo Mbeki prior to Mbeki's ousting.

               The confidential US Embassy diplomatic cable - titled Zuma
               advisor threatens to expose political skeletons- claims South
               African Secret Service boss Shaik, brother of convicted
               fraudster and Zuma funder Schabir, told the Americans that
               Zuma's legal team would subpoena the country's most
               influential figures if he lost a bid to have corruption
               charges against him "re-examined".

               The cable said he named Mbeki, the then suspended police
               commissioner Jackie Selebi, former director of Public
               Prosecutions Vusi Pikoli, then acting head of public
               prosecutions Mokotedi Mpshe as well as former  Speaker Frene
               Ginwala as targets.

               Shaik has refused to confirm or deny the claims.

               The cable - one of 250 000 leaked to Whistleblower website
               Wikileaks but obtained exclusively by Media24 Investigations -
               also reveals that the US Embassy in Pretoria actively
               cultivated Shaik as a key source of information on Zuma's
               inner circle and the "motivations and strategies of the Zuma
               camp".

               Dated September 10 2008, two days before corruption charges
               against Zuma were initially dismissed by Judge Chris
               Nicholson, the cable was sent to the Secretary of State in
               Washington DC and copied to US consuls in Durban and Cape
               Town, the CIA, the US Defence Intelligence Agency and the
               White House National Security Council.

               It is one of a number of classified cables recording meetings
               between Shaik - who was controversially appointed head of the
               South African Secret Service (SASS), South Africa's foreign
               intelligence wing, in October 2009 - and an unidentified US
               embassy political officer.

               "Shaik complained that all these people know Zuma is innocent
               and that he does not understand why they have not come to
               Zuma's defence before now," the cable noted.

               Shared insights

               The cable noted that "as usual" Shaik treated the political
               officer or "PolOff" as "a friend, a child, a confidante, and
               an adversary all in the same conversation".

               "He always shares insights into the motivations and strategies
               of the Zuma camp, but also expects obvious respect and
               gratitude for it."

               "PolOff does not know if Shaik meets with other diplomats, but
               presumes his contact within the diplomatic circle is limited."

               "The Australian High Commissioner mentioned he had met Shaik
               once before...and Shaik admitted he spoke to the Norwegians
               but did not say if this was on a regular or one-time basis."

               The cable notes that Shaik "used to meet with the French, but
               cut them off after a French diplomat insulted him immediately
               before the ANC conference at Polokwane".

               Ousting Mbeki

               The political officer reported that the Irish ambassador had
               approached her to arrange a meeting with Shaik after seeing
               her and Shaik in a restaurant together, "but Shaik refused,
               telling PolOff she should guard her contacts more closely".

               A source familiar with Shaik's interaction with the US
               diplomats claimed this week that Shaik had been tasked with
               winning diplomats over to the idea of a Zuma presidency.

               An earlier confidential cable, dated May 16 2008 speculated -
               after a meeting with Shaik - that the "Zuma camp may be
               looking to oust Mbeki".

               In a cable, dated June 4 2009, that focused on President
               Zuma's new cabinet, Shaik is said to have described the
               appointments of various presidential advisers, among them
               Collins Chabane - now minister in the presidency for
               performance monitoring, Ayanda Dlodlo - now deputy minister of
               public service and administration, Mandisi Mpahlwa - now envoy
               to Moscow, Lindiwe Zulu, Zuma's international affairs advisor
               and Bonisiwe Makhene as concessions to "keep them quiet".

               No comment

               Contacted this week, Shaik said: "I will neither confirm nor
               deny that we had discussions with the Americans on these
               matters and I will definitely make no comment about the
               accuracy of those reports. The Americans must deal with
               accuracy."

               US embassy spokesperson Elizabeth Kennedy-Trudeau said the
               embassy would not confirm or comment on the contents or
               veracity of "stolen documents".

               "The nature of cables in themselves is that these are one
               person's interpretation of a meeting, not official US public
               policy. The circumstances, because of the very nature of spot
               reporting are open to interpretation."
                

               - Rapport
               --

               Sean Noonan

               Tactical Analyst

               Office: +1 512-279-9479

               Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

               Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

               www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-01-25 21:20:16</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5114800_re-fwd-africa-fw-os-south-africa-ct-wikileaks-exposes-sa-spy.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mark.schroeder@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anya.alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5120519</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged "Anonymous" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise "anonymous"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-10 19:47:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5120519_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5126997</id>
    <title>S3 - INDIA/CT/GV- Death toll from derailed train in India now at 60
</title>
    <description>   The red please [chris]

   [this news also has the Assam blast story that caused train derailment the
   end. Bad sunday for Indian railways AR)

   Death toll from derailed train in India now at 60
   AP
   http://news.yahoo.com/death-toll-derailed-train-india-now-60-034936343.html

   LUCKNOW, India (AP) a** Officials say the death toll from a train
   derailment in northern India has risen to 60 as more bodies are being
   pulled out of the mangled coaches.

   The senior army official in charge of rescue operations at the accident
   site says volunteers and soldiers have pulled out 60 bodies from 12
   coaches of the Kalka Mail, which went off the tracks Sunday afternoon.

   Col. Amarjit Dhillon told the Associated Press on Monday that many more
   bodies were trapped under the twisted coaches and soldiers were using gas
   cutters to slice through the metal.

   Rescue workers working through the night rescued many of the more than 100
   injured in the accident near the town of Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh state.

   THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information.
   AP's earlier story is below.

   FATEHPUR, India (AP) a** Rescuers searched for survivors in the wreckage
   of a packed express train that derailed in northern India on Sunday
   afternoon, killing at least 31 people, while officials said a second train
   derailment hundreds of miles (kilometers) to the northeast appeared to
   have been caused by a remote-controlled bomb.

   Rescuers were working to reach the second derailment, which occurred late
   Sunday night in a rural area of Assam state, injuring at least 100. The
   two railway incidents did not appear to be related.

   In the first crash, the Kalka Mail train was on its way to Kalka, in the
   foothills of the Himalayas, from Howrah, a station near Kolkata in eastern
   India, when 12 coaches and the engine jumped the tracks at Malwan station,
   near the town of Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh state, senior railway official
   A.K. Jain said.

   The cause of the derailment was not immediately clear but it appeared that
   the driver applied the emergency brakes, Jain said.

   At least 31 people were killed and rescue workers pulled at least 100
   injured passengers out of the wreckage, said Brij Lal, a state police
   official.

   Hours later, the second train derailed in the northeastern state of Assam,
   injuring at least 100 people, said S.K. Roy, a local magistrate.

   Local police suspect that a remote control-triggered bomb caused four
   coaches of the Gauhati-Puri Express to be thrown off the tracks in the
   town of Rangiya, about 30 miles (50 kilometers) west of the state's
   capital, Gauhati, Roy said.

   S. Hajong, a local railways spokesman, said two of the four coaches
   plunged into a pond and casualties are feared.

   Roy did not blame any rebel group and no one has taken responsibility for
   the attack so far. More than 30 groups in northeastern India have been
   fighting for decades for independence or wide autonomy in the region,
   about 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) east of New Delhi.

   It was the third train accident in India in the last four days. A train
   hit a bus at an unmanned railway crossing last Thursday, killing 35
   people.

   In Fatehpur, the accident site was a pile of twisted metal. At least one
   coach flew above the roof of another ahead of it and was dangling
   precariously, television footage showed. Another coach was thrown away
   from the rest of the train.

   The toll was likely to rise as rescuers made their way through the coaches
   and used gas cutters to cut through the mangled metal, Lal said. Rescue
   efforts continued late into the night.

   "We're trying to cut into the coaches and rescue those still trapped
   inside," Lal said.

   A senior railway official, H.C. Joshi, told CNN-IBN news channel that
   rescuers were struggling to free at least five people pinned under the
   wreckage of one of the worst-damaged coaches.

   Medical personnel rushed to the area, about 75 miles (120 kilometers)
   southeast of Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh state.

   Army helicopters were ferrying the most seriously injured victims to
   hospitals and 30 army engineers had joined the rescue efforts, Lal said.

   TV stations showed local residents helping injured passengers away from
   the train, several in makeshift stretchers, and breaking the windows of
   coaches to help those trapped inside.

   Prime Minister Manmohan Singh expressed "deep sorrow and shock" at the
   loss of lives. The Railways Ministry announced compensation of 500,000
   rupees ($11,000) for the families of those killed in the accident.

   The number of passengers on board the Kalka Mail a** named for its past
   use in the postal service a** was not known. Express trains normally carry
   about 1,000 people and travel at speeds of 60-80 miles (100-130
   kilometers) per hour.

   India's railroad network is one of the largest in the world and carries
   about 14 million passengers a day. Accidents are common, with most blamed
   on poor maintenance and human error.

   --
   Animesh

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   Australia Mobile: 0423372241
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-11 06:52:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-17 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5126997_s3-india-ct-gv-death-toll-from-derailed-train-in-india-now.html</permalink>
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    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5127100</id>
    <title>[Analytical &amp; Intelligence Comments] "THE PROFESSIONAL" system by
	Kryzhanovsky (White House Special Handbook).
</title>
    <description>Mikhail Kryzhanovsky sent a message using the contact form at  
https://www.stratfor.com/contact.

THE  WHITE HOUSE SPECIAL HANDBOOK, OR HOW TO RULE THE WORLD IN THE 21ST  
CENTURY



          by  Mikhail Kryzhanovsky


         ALGORA , New York. 2007


To Hillary Rodham Clinton,
Who helped me to fight CIA
Who stood by my side in a desperate attempt to prevent 9/11 tragedy.


Mikhail Kryzhanovsky was born in 1958 in Ukraine. He graduated from  
Chernovtsy State University and in 1983-1992 worked for KGB USSR as  
intelligence officer.
He moved to USA in 1995 and worked here for CIA as expert.

                                                       Nothing is impossible  
if you don't have to do it yourself.

CONTENTS.

Introduction.

Part  I.    TOP  POLITICAL  MANAGEMENT.

Chapter 1.  Presidential election.
Chapter 2.  The White House management.
Chapter 3.  Domestic Policy.
Chapter 4.  The U.S. Congress management.
Chapter 5.  Foreign policy.

Part II.     TOP ESPIONAGE MANAGEMENT.

Chapter 1.  Be the best.
Chapter 2.  Special influence.
Chapter 3.  Special tools.
Chapter 4.  How to run agents.
Chapter 5.  FBI helper.
Chapter 6.  Spies identification.
Chapter 7.  Strategies.
Chapter 8.  Presidentâ€™s security.

PART  III.   TOP MILITARY MANAGEMENT.

Chapter 1.  Commander-in-Chief.
Chapter 2.  Strategy and tactics.
Chapter 3.  Stay alive.
Chapter 4.  Tricks.

PART  IV.   TOP INVESTIGATIONS.

   Chapter 1.  What happened to them ( a united anti-CIA file).
Heinrich Muller, Marilyn Monroe, John F. Kennedy, Martin Luther King, Robert   
Kennedy, Pope John Paul II, Ronald Brown, Diana Spencer, John Kennedy Jr.
Chapter 2.      9/11.


   Introduction

319 First Street, SE Washington, DC 20003

   PLATINUM MEMBER

Mykhaylo Kryzhanovsky
Member number 567192584-Q415
Member Since 2006

   This Platinum Card has been issued to the bearer by the Republican National  
Committee in recognition of an extraordinary level of commitment to the  
Republican ideals and values. The bearer of this card should be given special  
considerations by all Republican leaders as one who has provided the  
lifeblood of our Party over many years.
I believe your exemplary record of loyalty and patriotism proves you are a  
leader President Bush can count on. It is therefore my distinct privilege as  
Chairman of the Republican National Committee (RNC) to present you with your  
2006 Republican Party Platinum Card on behalf of President Bush and every  
Republican leader nationwide.
Your leadership as one of our Partyâ€™s elite Platinum Card holders is  
critical to electing principled Republicans in this yearâ€™s crucial midterm  
elections and implementing President Bushâ€™s agenda. President Bush is  
counting on proud Americans like you to stand with him this year â€” and to  
help him make sure the policies we support and the Republican candidates who  
share your values do not fall to defeat by the forces of partisan politics.
   I believe your exemplary record of loyalty and patriotism proves you are a  
leader President Bush can trust to fight with him for Americaâ€™s safety and  
security. Your proven leadership is just what President Bush and our party  
need right now.

Please accept this honor with my sincere thanks.

Sincerely,
Ken Mehlman
Chairman, Republican National Committee


                                                        PART  I.   TOP    
POLITICAL   MANAGEMENT

Chapter 1.   Presidential Election ( a mythmaking championship)


     America is divided . If a Democrat is elected the U.S President, he has  
to offer his Ð epublican opponent the VP Office â€“ thatâ€™s the only way we  
can unite the nation. (My 2012 presidential election message).

1.1  How a President is Nominated and Elected

   The Conventions.

The national conventions of both major parties are held during the summer of  
a presidential election year. Earlier,each party selects delegates by  
primaries, conventions,committees,etc. At each convention, a temporary  
chairman is chosen. After a credentials committee seats the delegates, a  
permanent chairman is elected. The convention then votes n a platform, drawn  
up by the platform committee. By the third or fourth day, presidential  
nominations begin. The chairman calls the  roll of states alphabetically. A  
state may place a candidate in nomination or yield to another state. Voting,  
again alphabeticaly by roll call of states, begins after all nominations have  
been made  and seconded. A simple majority is required in each party,  
although this may require many ballots.

Finally, the vice-presidential candidate is selected. Although there is no  
law saying that the  candidates must come from different states, it is,  
practically, necessary for this to be the case. Otherwise, according to the  
Constitution, electors from that state could vote only of the candidates and  
would have to cast their other vote for some person of another state. This  
could result in a presidential candidateâ€™s receiving a majority electoral  
vote and his or her running mateâ€™s failing to do so.

The Electoral College.

  The next step in the process is the nomination of electors in each state,  
according to its laws. These electors must not be federal office holders. In  
the November election, the voters cast their votes for electors, not for  
president. In some states,the ballots include only the names of the  
presidential and vice-presidential candidates; in others, they include only  
names of the electors. Nowadays, itâ€™s rare for electors to be split between  
parties. The last such occurance was in North Carolina in 1968. On four  
occasions (last was in 2000),the presidential candidate with the largest  
popular vote failed to obtain an electoral vote majority. Each state has as  
many electors as it has senators and representatives, plus 3 electoral votes  
from the District of Columbia as a result of the 23rd Amendment to the  
Constitution.
  On the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December, the electors  
caast their votes in their respective state capitols. Constitutionally they  
may vote  for someone other than the party candidate but usually  they do not  
since they are pledged to one party and its candidate on the ballot. Should  
the presidential or vice-presidential candidate die between the November  
election and the December meetings, the electors pledged to vote for him or  
her could vote for whomever they pleased. However, it seems certain that the  
national committee would attempt to get an agreement among the state party  
leaders for a replacement candidate.
  The votes of the electors, certified by the states, are sent to Congress,  
where the president of  the  Senate opens the certificates and has them  
counted in the presence of both houses on January 6. The new president is  
inaugurated at noon January 20.
Should no candidate receive a majority of the electoral vote for president,  
the House of Representatives chooses a president from among the three highest  
candidates, voting, not as individuals, but as states, with a majority (now  
26) needed to elect. Should no vice-presidential candidate obtain the  
majority, the Senate, voting as individuals, chooses from the highest two.


   1.2. Reality Check

   The formal requirements for the Presidency, as the Constitution says, are  
simple: a candidate must be a natural-born US citizen, at least 35 years of  
age and a US resident for at least 14 years. These  requirements meet the  
technical minimum, but the informal and sometimes less apparent ones are  
equally important. You must have â€œpolitical availability,â€ which means  
political experience; be attractive (for political activists and general  
voting public); and project personal characteristics that enable the public  
to envision you as President. Voters â€” and funders â€” must believe that  
you and only you deserve to represent them for the next four years.

If you pass the above tests, ask yourself six simple questions:
1. Am I a governor?
2. Am I a Congressman?
3. Am I a Senator?
4. Am I a Cabinet member?
5. Am I a lawyer?
6. Am I a leader?

The last question is the easiest.

   Qualities of a leader:

1. Technical/specific skill at some task at hand.
2. Charisma - attractiveness to others and the ability to leverage this  
esteem to motivate others.
3. Preoccupation with a role - dedication that consumes much of leaderâ€™s  
life â€“ service to a cause.
4. A clear sense of purpose (or mission) clear goals â€“ focus â€“  
commitment.
5. Results-orientation â€“ directing very action towards a mission â€“  
prioritizing activities to spend time where results most accrue.
6. Cooperation - work well with others.
7. Optimism - very few pessimists become leaders.
8. Rejection of determinism - belief  in oneâ€™s ability to â€œmake a  
differenceâ€.
9. Self-knowledge (in non-bureaucratic structures).
10. Self-awareness - the ability to â€œleadâ€ oneâ€™s on self prior to  
leading  to leading other selves similarly.
11. Awareness of environment - the ability to understand the environment they  
lead in and how they affect and are affected by it.
12. With regards to people and projects, the ability to choose winners â€“  
recognizing that, unlike with skills, one cannot teach attitude.
13. Empathy - understanding what others say, rather than listening to how  
they say things â€“ this could partly sum this quality up as â€œwalking in  
someone elseâ€™s shoesâ€.
Integrity - the integration of outward actions and inner values.

   Leadership styles

1. Vision. outstanding leaders articulate an ideological vision congruent  
with the deeply-held values of followers, a   vision that describes a better  
future to which the followers have an alleged moral right.
2. Passion and sacrifice. Leaders display a passion for, and have a strong  
conviction of, what they regard as the moral correctness of their vision.  
They engage in outstanding or extraordinary behavior and make extraordinary  
self-sacrifices in the interest of their vision and mission.
3. Confidence, determination and persistence. Outstanding leaders display a  
high degree of faith in themselves and in the attainment of the vision they  
articulate. Such leaders need to have a very high degree of self-confidence  
and moral conviction because their mission usually challenges the status-quo  
and, therefore, may offend those who have a stake in preserving the  
established order.
4. Image-building. Leaders must be self-conscious about his own image. He  
recognizes the desirability of followers perceiving them as competent,  
credible and trustworthy.
5. Role-modeling. Leader-image-building sets the stage for effective  
role-modeling because followers identify with the values of role models whom  
they perceived in positive terms.
6. External representation. Outstanding leaders act as spokespersons for  
their respective organizations and symbolically represent those organizations  
to external constituencies.
7. Expectations of and confidence in followers. Outstanding leaders  
communicate expectations of high performance from their followers and strong  
confidence in their followersâ€™ ability to meet such expectations.
8. Selective motive-arousal. Outstanding leaders selectively arouse those  
motives of followers that  the leaders see as special relevance to the  
successful accomplishment of the vision and mission.
9. Frame alignment. To persuade followers to accept and implement change ,  
outstanding leaders engage in â€œframe alignmentâ€. This refers to the  
linkage of individual and leader interpretive orientations  such that some  
set of followers â€˜s interests, values and beliefs, as well as the  
leaderâ€™s activities, goals and ideology, becomes congruent and  
complementary.
10. Inspirational communication. Outstanding leaders often, but not always,  
communicate their message in an inspirational manner using vivid stories,  
slogans, symbols and ceremonies.

   A leader can have one or more visions  of the future to aid him to move a  
nation successfully towards this goal. A vision, for effectiveness, should  
allegedly :
- appear as a simple, yet vibrant, image in the mind of the leader
- describe a future state, credible and preferable to the present state
- act as a bridge between the current state and a future optimum state
- appear desirable enough to energize followers
- succeed in speaking to followers at an emotional or spiritual level

   For leadership to occur, leaders must not just see the vision themselves,  
they must have the ability to get others to see it also. You can use  
techniques like metaphors, symbolic actions, leading by example, incentives  
and penalties.

   Distinctions between managers and leaders:

Managers administer, leaders innovate.
Managers as how and when, leaders ask what and why.
Managers focus on systems, leaders focus on people.
Managers do things right, leaders do the right things.
Managers maintain, leaders develop.
Managers rely on control, leaders inspire trust.
Managers have a short-term perspective, leaders have a long-term perspective,
Managers accept the status-quo, leaders challenge the status-quo.
Managers have an eye on the bottom-line, leaders have an eye on the horizon
Managers imitate, leaders originate.
Managers emulate the classic good soldier, leaders are their own person.
Managers copy, leaders show originality.


  Seventeen US Presidents previously served as Governors: Thomas Jefferson,  
Martin Van Buren, William Harrison, John Tyler, James Polk, Andrew Johnson,  
Rutherford Hayes, Grover Cleveland, William McKinley, Theodore Roosevelt,  
William Taft, Woodrow Wilson, Calvin Coolidge, Franklin Roosevelt, Jimmy  
Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush.
  Nineteen US Presidents were Congressmen: James Madison, John Adams, Andrew  
Jackson, William Harrison, John Tyler, James Polk, Millard Fillmore, Franklin  
Pierce, James Buchanan, Abraham Lincoln, Andrew Johnson, Rutherford Hayes,  
James Garfield, William McKinley, John Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, Richard  
Nixon, Gerald Ford, George Bush.
  Fifteen US Presidents were Senators: James Monroe, John Adams, Andrew  
Jackson, Martin Van Buren, William Harrison, John Tyler, Franklin Pierce,  
James Buchanan, Andrew Johnson, Benjamin Harrison, Warren Harding, Harry  
Truman, John Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon.
  Six were Secretaries of State â€” Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, James  
Monroe, John Adams, Martin Van Buren, James Buchanan.
  Two were Secretaries of War â€” Ulysses S. Grant and William Taft.
  One was a Secretary of Commerce â€” Herbert Hoover.
  And a full twenty-six US Presidents were lawyers: John Adams, Thomas  
Jefferson, James Madison, James Monroe, John Adams, Andrew Jackson, Martin  
Van Buren, John Tyler, James Polk, Millard Fillmore, Franklin Pierce, James  
Buchanan, Abraham Lincoln, Rutherford Hayes, James Garfield, Chester Arthur,  
Grover Cleveland, Benjamin Harrison, William McKinley, William Howard Taft,  
Woodrow Wilson, Calvin Coolidge, Franklin Roosevelt, Richard Nixon, Gerald  
Ford, Bill Clinton.

However, without wishing to dampen your enthusiasm, I must add that 8  
Governors, 7 US Senators, 9 US Congressmen, 11 Mayors, 17 State Legislators  
and 11 judges have been violently attacked by 2005.

   1.3  The Bilderberg Group

The Bilderberg Group is an annual invitation-only conference of around 100  
guests, most of whom are usually influential politicians and big business.  
The title comes from the location of its first official meeting in 1954 in  
the Bilderberg Hotel, Arnhem, Netherlands. Its main office is now in Leiden,  
South Holland, the groupâ€™s current Chairman is Etienne Davignon, a former  
Vice President of the European Commission. The original intention of the  
group was to further the understanding between Western Europe and North  
America through informal and closed for media and public meetings between  
powerful individuals. Of course, thatâ€™s not what they are doing. If you  
look through the guestsâ€™ lists, you can find some very popular names like  
David Rockefeller, Donald Rumsfeld and George Soros. Lists differ each year,  
but thereâ€™s one name that remains there for years - Henry Kissinger, a  
former Secretary of State, who rules the Bilderberg Group and rules the  
world. Bill Clinton, the Arkansas Governor and 1992 presidential nominee went  
to Baden-Baden and attended the Conference on June 6 1991.


1.4  Democrat or  Republican - Choosing Sides

The next step is to decide whether you want to be cast as a liberal  
(Democrat) or conservative (Republican). If you donâ€™t take a definite side,  
you will be labeled as a moderate liberal-conservative.

   You are  a Democrat if you:
1. Embrace national government resolutions to public problems.
2. Believe that the national government should intervene in the economy to  
ensure its health, to support social welfare problems to assist the  
disadvantaged, and to be tolerant of social change.
3. Identify yourself with pro-womenâ€™s rights position, pro-civil rights  
policies, and opposition to increased defense spending.
4. Increase taxes.
5. Negotiate first and take military action only if sanctioned by the UN.
6. Block drilling for oil in Alaska.
7. Sign the Kyoto Treaty.
8. Protect the rights of the accused first and foremost.
9. Allow doctor-assisted suicide.
10. Scrap the missile defense program.
11. Increase age of initial retirement eligibility (e.g. 68 or 70); increase  
salary limits subject to tax.
12. Propose 100% government-controlled reform.
13. Maintain separation of church and state; stop faith-based government  
initiatives.

     You are a Republican if you:
  1. State that the national government has grown too large.
  2. Insist the private sector needs less interference from the government,  
that social welfare programs should be limited and state and local  
governments should be able to make their own decisions, and that the  
nationâ€™s defense should be strengthened
  3. Are not tolerant of gay rights laws.
  4. Cut taxes.
  5. Work with the UN but take unilateral pre-emptive action to show the  
United States is not under anyoneâ€™s thumb.
  6. Pursue this and other domestic oil sources.
  7. Donâ€™t sign environmental treaties.
  8. Provide maximum punishment and protect the rights of the victim first and  
foremost.
  9. Argue against any kind of suicide.
  10. Boost international military programs.
  11. Privatize; i.e. oblige citizens to handle their own retirement money and  
allow stock investments.
  12. De-regulate health care and introduce free market health care.
  13. Introduce more religion in schools and public ceremonies; promote  
faith-based government initiatives.

   1.5   Get Ready

Before you make a decision to run for President, you must determine for  
yourself if you can handle the Oval Office: Are you willing to accept such a  
huge responsibility and put the rest of your life on hold ? Are you skilled  
in dealing with big groups of people ? Can you motivate the nation to action  
? And think about your biography, which is, of course, not perfect.

    Then you must:

1. Decide how are you going to impress party leaders.
2. Make intensive preliminary polling to determine your chances.
3, Poll big demographic groups as well as smaller groups of people from  
selected demographic groups.
4. Determine the rationale for your candidacy. What is your political record?
5. Delay announcing your candidacy until late in the year before the election  
to minimize expenditures and risk, avoid legal spending limits, avoid voter  
fatigue, avoid getting ensnarled in unnecessary controversies and  
contradictions.
6. Carefully study applicable election laws before you start fundraising and  
spending.
7. Write your campaign plan (strategic objective, tactical targets, key  
message, target audiences, methods of delivery, timing, your progress  
evaluation â€” polls).
8. Learn the political and economic issues and develop your campaign message.
9. Prepare the â€œspeechâ€ and the â€œbookâ€ (the â€œspeechâ€ is the  
standard speech that you deliver and it should answer the most important  
question â€” why are you running for President; the â€œbookâ€ contains the  
message and all possible questions on your program.
10. Take a benchmark poll â€” it will provide the road map for your campaign.
11. Establish your strategy and message
12. Study the results, polls and â€œsuccessfulâ€ areas of previous election.
13. Establish a perfect graphic look (image).
14. Develop a fundraising plan, put the fundraising team in place and start  
asking for money. No money â€” no campaign.
15. Create a personal contacts pyramid (priority and general contacts)  
because personal popularity is your starting point.
16. Set up offices.
17. Get professional candidate training.
18. Determine the focus of your presidential policy (taxes, crime, education,  
health, social security, national security).

     1.6    Working with the Staff

Basic campaign staffers include:

1) campaign managers â€” they plan the campaign, organize and recruit the  
staff, supervise daily campaign operations, make priority contacts with key  
special groups big business and big media, correct the strategy and make  
quick decisions. It has to be someone you trust completely.
2) campaign consultants-specialists in both direct (personal and public  
meetings) and indirect (media, advertising) campaigning
3) strategists
4) analysts
5) issues researchers
6) speechwriters
7) lawyer (interprets election and campaign reporting laws)
8) personal assistants (work on issues in foreign and domestic policy in  
cooperation with the whole team).
9) fundraisers (plan and execute fundraising events â€” dinners, parties,  
auctions, direct appeals through telephone and letters, receptions,  
computerized fundraising). Big business has to be approached by rich  
fundraiser only.
10) scheduler (determines events and locations â€” TV and radio talk shows,  
news â€” conferences, meetings with students and professors at college  
campuses and with professionals at their associationsâ€™ annual meetings,  
special events and fundraisers especially with ethnic leaders in big cities,  
as well as festivals and big shows where celebrities demonstrate their  
support, large extravaganzas, meetings at civic clubs, farm warehouse  
auctions and special auctions, local civic events. Also, scheduler makes  
arrangements with local media before your visit and sends media the copies of  
your speech; insures that good crowd will attend the event and takes care of  
transportation arrangements). The purpose of the campaign planning and  
strategic scheduling is to draw press attention to the candidate for  
transmission to the voting public. Thatâ€™s natural â€” the candidate who has  
enough media attention has much better chances of recruiting public  
acceptance and raising campaign funds.
During the â€œinvisible primaryâ€ which is the nomination, campaign you have  
to make visits to party organizations especially in pivotal states, such as  
the above mentioned Iowa and New Hampshire where you have to make as many  
handshaking and personal contacts as possible. Key staffers must travel with  
you.

    1.7   Fundraising

   You are the #1 fundraiser yourself. You must have substantial financial  
support to compete. It was estimated early in 2007 that the major candidates  
for 2008 will spend ONE BILLION dollars in their campaigns. As they say, at  
that rate, pretty soon weâ€™re talking real money.
   You must have an overall plan which outlines expenditures month by month.  
It is imperative to have even more money on hand at the end of the campaign  
for an advertising blitz when the voters are most attentive and the field of  
candidates has been winnowed out. Half of a campaign funds go to media.
Failing to do well in early caucus and primary contests means more than  
losing delegates â€” it means that contributions stop.
   Your speeches have to be a fun, and match the meal and drinks â€” donâ€™t  
be heavy and too political. Actually, you have to run two campaigns (a  
political campaign and a fund-raising one) and you must win both; if you  
raise less money than your opponent, you lose, because you donâ€™t have  
enough money to inform, influence, and motivate your voters. If you are a  
Senator or a Congressman, you already have an advantage in money (free  
postage on mail sent to your constituents, automatic media coverage) and you  
can use your congressional staff to assist your campaign. Besides, you are  
interviewed by reporters for free as an elected official. You can also ask  
your political party for a contribution to your campaign. Party money can be  
given in two ways â€” as a â€œdirectâ€ contribution or as a  
â€œcoordinatedâ€ expenditure. Direct contributions are funds given by the  
party to candidates to do with as they please. Coordinated expenditures are  
made for such services as polling and TV advertising, but the party has a say  
how the money is spent.
   Then you have to ask PACs (political action committees) to fund your  
campaign, too. PACs are special-interest groups which consist of people who  
pool their money in order to contribute it to candidates or political party  
committees who share their political, social, religious or economic views.  
PACs include corporations, trade unions, professional associations and groups  
composed of political conservatives or liberals, or people who share the same  
ideological views on womenâ€™s rights, gun control, the environment, civil  
rights, etc. Remember the â€œwomen factorâ€: there are more women than men  
in our country, women are more likely to be registered to vote, and among  
registered voters women are more likely to vote. An additional source of  
money is â€œsoft moneyâ€ contributions. â€œSoft moneyâ€ is supposed to be  
used for the party-building activities, but often ends up supporting the  
campaigns of individual candidates.

The key rules in fundraising are:
- find some â€œfat cats,â€ quick
- go where the money is - get fundraisers with lots of rich friends
- get money from those who usually contribute

   And the most important strategy is to raise big money for yourself and  
prevent big money from being spent against you. Early fundraising is crucial  
to a campaign because of the high costs organization and the need to  
demonstrate viability. The best states for fundraising are California, New  
York, Florida, Texas, which supply half of all campaign donations. Go right  
ahead and raise money in New York and spend in Iowa and New Hampshire.
   To finish well in pre-nomination popularity contests (â€œstraw pollsâ€)  
you have to appear daily in TV ads, and prime-time news coverage â€” after  
the primaries media â€œlabelâ€ winners and losers and that affects voters  
and contributors a lot. Media, especially the most influential â€œthe New  
York Timesâ€ and â€œWashington Postâ€ (their publications influence  
decisions on which news stories will be carried on TV channels), have to take  
you as a very serious contender.

1. 8  Geography

   Due to the winner-take-all  electoral college system, in which the leading  
vote-getter in a state wins all of that stateâ€™s electoral votes, you MUST  
win as many large states as possible rather than build up strength in states  
where you are weak. You have to win a majority (270 of the 538 electoral  
votes) and for that, concentrate on visits to the most populous states â€”  
California, New York, Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan,  
New Jersey, North Carolina, and Georgia 54+33+32+25+23+22+21+18+15+14+13 =  
270).
   Work closely with your party activists and supporters among Senators,  
Representatives, Governors, Mayors, ethnic and religious groups leaders, big  
business, celebrities, unions leaders. Determine the states in which you are  
the strongest and then build you campaign on that basis. Republicans have  
usually done well in recent years in the Midwest, West and South (Tennessee,  
Kentucky, Texas, Oklahoma). Democrats win in the Northeast industrial base,  
Mid-Atlantic and Pacific Coast. New York City is a very important factor  
because the most active, influential and rich people live there.

1.9  The Press

   The press officer (contacts media, takes care of newspapers, radio and TV  
ads) â€” the person who markets you â€” is the boss of advance team that  
takes care in each state of a total exclusively positive press coverage. To  
my mind, the best choice for this position is a former journalist with good  
wide connections to media. He prepares press releases and press kits and  
schedules interviews and press conferences with the positive vision and  
attitude reporters (press or media kits contain your photos, a brief  
biography, campaign position papers, printed brochures and names of contacts  
for additional information).

   The technique in good paid advertising is to go with those ideas,  
arguments, thoughts, themes and believes in which people are already inclined  
to believe or ready to accept. Thereâ€™s no difference between commercial and  
political advertising â€” you just substitute a car or shampoo for a human  
being. Modern presidential campaigns center on â€œmedia eventsâ€ â€” staged  
public appearances, during which reporters can talk with you and take  
pictures (if you have too much money, you can organize media wave â€” a very  
large amount of political advertising on TV). Then, the â€œwalking toursâ€  
must be scheduled when you, followed by reporters, photographers and TV crews  
visit potential supporters.
   Simultaneously your aide sets up press conferences, selects interviews, and  
background briefings. You have to talk to press 24/7 and everywhere on the  
campaign bus, train or plain, hotel, etc. A good thing is â€” you get free  
media coverage and people trust it more than paid coverage, like TV and radio  
commercials. You are most likely to win if you obey these rules:
- if you can manipulate media â€” you manipulate the nation (sorry, itâ€™s  
harder to manipulate free coverage).
- the media makes the election, not the voters
- a presidential campaign does not allow for privacy
- newspapers put emphasis on issues, TV on image, style and ability to  
communicate.
- never lie to reporters; they will make sure it backfires on you sooner or  
later.
- if an influential newspaper, radio or TV station endorses you, you have  
their supporters, readers, listeners and viewers.
- people remember much better what they see, not what they read; if they  
donâ€™t see you on TV, you donâ€™t exist.
- TV talks to 98% of Americans and takes your message â€” and other messages  
about, or against, you â€” immediately, straight to the nation.
- TV, not your political party, is the #1 channel of communication between  
you and the public
- your political party is nothing but a service center and a money machine.  
Parties divide the nation while your message has to be one of unity.
- take it seriously if The New York Times takes your opponent seriously.
- itâ€™s important to know what your opponent is saying to reporters  
privately, â€œnot for attribution.â€
- if you live in heavily populated state, like New York, California or Texas,  
you start the presidential election campaign with much better coverage.
- never fight the media like the Nixon administration did â€” they kept a  
list of Nixonâ€™s critics (famous reporters), so they could be targeted for  
harassment, accused of income tax evasion, etc. What happened then? The  
reporters felt like heroes, Nobel Prize winners. Better target them for  
buttering up, and feed them lots of stories with a spin in your favor,  
instead.

1.10  Polls

   Pollsters works through newspapers, Internet, telephone surveys,  
person-to-person surveys, mailed questionnaire to selected voters. They  
provide voters' behavior research and analyze past election data. They tell  
to  you how well-known you are, how well you perform, what are the votersâ€™  
preferences. You should poll voters in each state in proportion to that  
stateâ€™s share of the national vote. (You must have at least one polling  
company on payroll.) Polling is of extreme importance in presidential  
campaign because itâ€™s the tool to correct your strategy, determine  
â€œpositiveâ€ local areas and supportive voters and work with them, it tests  
the nationâ€™s attitude to your personality and your issues and that means  
you can calibrate your message and calculate your success. The most important  
thing about polls is that they play indicator and identify support or  
hostility. And the golden rule here is: you have to ask the right question if  
you want to get a useful answer.
   At the same time polling is one of the most expensive elements of a modern  
campaign because now you have to receive information on too many groups and  
issues, including groups with specific economic, ethnic, religious,  
geographic, educational, occupational and residential characteristics and how  
those characteristics affect attitudes about a wide range of policy issues.

Polls also help you:
- to decide whether to run or not
- improve your recognition and image
- target oppositionâ€™s weakness
- formulate media ads

   Your pollster has to pinpoint blocks of voters (swing districts) who are  
undecided and who might be persuaded to vote for you. Experience shows that  
40% of public attention go to social problems, 40% â€” to economy and 20% â€”  
to international matters, but if the United States is at war, the situation  
is different and national security turns into a top priority for everyone.  
And watch out for campaign spies â€” keep polls analysis and media plan  
secret.

Practical polls
â€œBenchmarkâ€ - surveys of the whole nation which provide basic information  
about your chances and the nationâ€™s political preferences (itâ€™s your  
â€œpresidential decision makerâ€).
â€œFollow-upâ€ - surveys are used to gather more data about particular  
concerns raised in initial benchmark surveys. They are conducted state by  
state and are used in planning campaign strategy.
â€œPanelâ€ - surveys are used to refine strategy further by re-interviewing  
previous respondents to determine opinion shifts on specific issues within  
various demographic categories. They are supplemented by continuous  
â€œtracking pollsâ€ that measure fluctuations in general voter support for  
the candidate across time.
â€œSpecial groupâ€ - used to poll the debate results. Selected groups of  
voters watch candidate debates and register their â€œpositive â€œ or  
â€œnegativeâ€ feelings toward the candidateâ€™s specific statements or  
actions. After that analysts tabulate and analyze the reactions of the whole  
groups.

1.11  Other Critical Personnel

â€œImage makersâ€ - political consultants who sell your public image as a  
clear, simple, portrait-like characterization, acceptable to all groups.
â€œHit menâ€ - campaign consultants who are experts on negative advertising,  
designed to â€œkillâ€ your opponents.
â€œField staffâ€ (in target cities mostly). The most important person at any  
local office is the coordinator â€” he establishes organization and contacts  
influential people and political activists. Coordinators must be appointed to  
each special interests group (women, minorities, unions, college students,  
public interest activists, the professionals)
â€œLocal volunteersâ€ are needed to work in the offices and the streets.  
Your family has to take an active part in your campaign, too. Your wife and  
kids are your visual image makers
â€œRunning Mate.â€ Your running mate belongs to your staff too â€” it has to  
be your best choice. This person should be compatible with you in age,  
intellect, political views, and be of approximately the same height. He is  
selected to balance the national ticket in terms of geography, religion,  
ideology, government experience and political style. You have to appeal to  
the broad electorate, while your running mate appeals to specific groups. He  
serves to reinforce â€” or break down â€” the electorateâ€™s attitudes toward  
you. If you have little domestic or foreign policy, or Washington experience,  
a running mate with that experience can reassure voters. And he has to give  
voters the impression your policy will be continued unchanged in case you die  
during your presidency or in case he is elected the US President himself  
after your two terms in the Office.

1.12   Campaign Tips

Never behave as if you think you are Godâ€™s gift to the nation.
Be presidential - look calm, sincere, knowledgeable, fatherly and open.
Be electable -  prove to the nation that you are the best choice.
No one has ever been elected the US President without winning the New  
Hampshire primary.
Primaries direct financial backers to a promising candidate.
Voters judge you by your friends â€” appear with popular politicians, big  
business, labor and interest groups leaders, and show business celebrities.  
Advertize your meetings with Congress members and world leaders (go abroad if  
you have a chance to meet a world leader).
  The most important event in the election process is the National Convention,  
not only because the eventual finalist candidate is actually nominated but  
because after that the campaignâ€™s audience increases (more than twice as  
many people vote in general elections as participate in the nomination  
process). You have to decide how to win the support of these new voters as  
well as to appeal to people who identify with the other party and partisans  
who backed losing candidates for the nomination.

1.13   Choosing a Strategy

Any strategy is good if it helps you to win support of a majority of people  
chosen by the state parties to be delegates to the national convention. Your  
choice of a strategy depends on your current position:

A. If you are an incumbent, you have to stress that the American peopleâ€™s  
life improved a lot during your first term. You can count on successful start  
because you are guaranteed to be known actually to every American, and the  
Oval Office lends you credibility and respect. Itâ€™s of vital importance to  
have economic accomplishments â€” in such a case well-timed announcements of  
government statistics on the economy or of plans for domestic initiatives can  
also help you. Listen, I didnâ€™t tell you this, but you have to manipulate  
(stimulate) the economy during the election year with tax cuts that can help  
reduce unemployment, and with social programs financing.
   Of course, youâ€™ll have to pay for it, but that will happen after you are  
re-elected. And a good thing is â€” an improved economy erases votersâ€™ bad  
memories of past years. Then, try to avoid too aggressive campaigning â€”  
itâ€™s a sign of weakness. Make official appearances in carefully controlled  
settings. Influence media coverage with official presidential actions and use  
â€œpork barrelâ€ politics to appeal to specific constituents. You can also  
benefit from the nationâ€™s reluctance to reject a tested national leader for  
an unknown newcomer. And if you start important foreign policy initiatives,  
it will guarantee you continued media coverage.
If you have poor chances to be re-elected, you can play the â€œnational  
securityâ€ card:
- find a US â€œenemyâ€
- start a media psychosis (see propaganda tricks and brainwashing )
- concentrate power (special services) to establish a total legal control on  
the nation
- provoke an international conflict, restricted or full-scale war
- send a message: â€œIf you are against the President, you are against  
America!â€

  B.  If you are a challenger  you have to convince the public they donâ€™t  
live better than they did 4 years ago, or, if the economy is OK, point out  
mistakes that were made in the foreign policy.  Or make up some social issue  
that will get passions inflamed and hijack the headlines.
   The job is tough if you challenge a President who is popular â€” first, you  
have to break down his positive image; second, you have to portray yourself  
as a much better replacement. You have no choice but to start with the  
â€œoutsiderâ€ strategy â€” you present a â€œfresh faceâ€ to voters weary of  
the current political situation (in such a case you have to attack  
administration in a very aggressive manner). Plus, you must give quick  
response to your opponentâ€™s charges (get advance copies of his speeches  
through friends in the media).
   Then, show yourself as a smart and diplomatic person using a special  
â€œtriangularâ€ strategy, when you, like majority of the voters, place  
yourself between liberal and conservative positions. Evaluate situation â€”  
you may need â€œearly knockout,â€ when front-runners hope to use their early  
strength in polls, fundraising and endorsements into decisive primary  
victories at the beginning of the primary season. The hope is that the  
candidate will build such an impressive early lead that the competition  
quickly drops out. And a â€œshiftâ€ is the most popular thing with  
challengers â€” if the President is good in national security, they point out  
to the problems in economy, if heâ€™s good on the economy, they point out to  
the problems in national security â€” very simple. (Watch his mistakes anyway  
â€” you can benefit from them. Bill Clinton would never have run for  
President in 1992 if someone from the Bush White House hadnâ€™t called him in  
1990 and asked him not to run. That phone call was one of the dummest  
political moves  of the 20th century, because it convinced Clinton that they  
thought he had a good chance if he did run for Office.)
   Be simple, identify with â€œordinary peopleâ€ and no matter what tell the  
voters your parents or your grandparents â€œwere like them â€” regular  
people, not millionaires.â€ You can even say â€œFeb-uaryâ€ and  
â€œnuc-ular,â€ and see if they forget you were educated at Yale.

   Finally, you must know some very popular and efficient dirty tricks, like  
â€œnegative campaigningâ€ or â€œblack PR.â€ To make a long story short: no  
matter what your opponent says or what decent people think about negative  
campaigning â€” â€œblack PRâ€ works! Use it to turn a rumor or a fact into a  
serious political scandal; respond to and neutralize the opponentâ€™s attacks  
(using â€œblack PRâ€) fast, before they are broadcasted or published.
   It works best through intermediates (persons and organizations not  
connected directly to your campaign). You must have a very detailed file on  
your opponent (negative research) and then start spreading negative and all  
kinds of compromising data from his personal and political life. If he is or  
was elected official (Senator, Governor, Mayor), you can point out his  
mistakes and actions which were not popular. People must know in detail (get  
your staff to read a few books) the negative sides of his life, program and  
terrible consequences of his election. Remember also that a rumor repeated  
twice turns into a fact, especially if you start a â€œwhispering campaignâ€  
in Congress.
   A â€œnegative IDâ€ trick is my favorite: you identify your opponent with a  
totally unacceptable (for the voters) viewpoint, like: â€œThere are those who  
want to stop the war on international terror and you know who they are!â€

1.14    Debates

   Debates are very important because they offer the only all-national event  
at which candidates can be judged. You and your opponent will be under huge  
stress as you both must operate simultaneously at the focus of attention of  
each other and of all elements of electorate. Debates are, actually,  
head-to-head confrontations with two main aspects: the pre-debate  
negotiations over whether there will be a debate, and the post-debate  
analysis of who did how well. The debates offer nothing new for the public  
and the basic strategy is to hope your opponent will make a mistake  
(President Ford made one in 1976, saying that: â€œThere is no Soviet  
domination of Eastern Europe.â€ People just didnâ€™t want to hear it.  
Richard Nixon was very wrong in 1960 trying to debate on substance, while his  
opponent, John F. Kennedy, concentrated on style and on presenting the  
correct presidential image).

   While preparing for the winning debates you must:
- have a detailed file on your opponent and study all his speeches and  
statements; ask yourself: â€œWhat does he have that I donâ€™t have?â€
- train to answer all possible questions
- be ready to demonstrate deep knowledge of issues and your presidential  
bearing to a nationwide audience
- repeat your message but keep in mind that image is more important than  
ideas while you debate â€” people want to see your good looks, good clothes  
and nice smile.

   And here  are the debating â€œDonâ€™tsâ€:
Donâ€™t attack first â€” thatâ€™s a sign of weakness.
Donâ€™t be over-polite â€” a little showmanship appeals to voters.
Donâ€™t be too aggressive â€” it will ruin your image as a future President.
Donâ€™t answer the questions too fast â€” that implies you are not thinking.
Donâ€™t rush, no negative emotions, no sudden gestures (extra gestures mean  
that you are not surewhat you are saying is correct).
Donâ€™t touch anything while you talk.
Donâ€™t disappoint people â€” speak in a clear and simple way.
You restrict your influence if you sit.

   Follow the rules :
Avoid anxiety reactions â€” speech errors, moistening of lips, perspiring,  
shifting eye movements, body jerks. Gesturing with fingers apart communicates  
weakness, while gesturing with fingers tightly together communicates power.
Look at your opponent with intense concentration â€” it gives the attitude of  
command and comfort of the situation. .
Answer a question you want to answer, no matter what question was asked.
If you give better answers, you are the better candidate.
Immediately after the debates your press officer has to give the media his  
biased impression and explain why you won the debates. Your pollster has to  
watch the polls results.

1.14   Speaking in Public

First things first - you have to know your own nation well. Here is a popular  
classification of American voters:

1. Entrepreneurs. Traditional Republicans driven by free enterprise economic  
concerns.
2. Moralists. Less affluent populist Republicans driven by moral issues, such  
as abortion.
3. New Dealers. Older traditional Democrats who are pro-government but  
socially conservative.
4. Sixties Democrats. Mainstream Democrats highly tolerant of varying  
lifestyles with strong beliefs in social justice.
5. Partisan poor. Low-income, mainly black, who believe in the Democratic  
Party as a vehicle for social change.
6. Passive poor. The older God-and-Country Democrats who have a strong faith  
in America and an uncritical attitude toward its institutions but favor  
social spending.
7. By-standers. Those who are mainly young, white and poorly educated and who  
show almost no interest in politics.
8. Upbeats. Young, optimistic moderates who lean toward the Republicans.
9. Disaffected. Middle-aged, pessimistic working class who, even though they  
have Democratic roots, lean toward the Republicans.
10. Seculars. Affluent and highly educated but lacking religious convictions;  
committed to personal freedom and peace.
11. Followers. Poor, young, uninformed blue-collar workers with little  
religious commitment and limited interest in politics.

  "Golden" rules

Your aides have to determine the â€œtheme of the dayâ€ and brief you about  
the dayâ€™s events and issues. To get elected you must promise economic  
growth with low inflation and balanced budget no matter how grave the  
economic situation is.
Donâ€™t be too specific on issues and tell people they elect their way, not a  
candidate.
Cite the Bible.
Donâ€™t look too intellectual.
State repeatedly that youâ€™re not going to divide the nation into supporters  
and enemies, Democrats and Republicans, â€œmy voters and other votersâ€ â€”  
be a leader to all. (But first, to win the nomination you must appeal to the  
more liberal sections of your party if you are Democrat, and to more  
conservative sections if you belong to Republicans).
Donâ€™t talk much; transform your thoughts into examples and slogans.
Never say you want power, even if you want to save the nation in crisis.
Never talk down on big business. Promise federal financing, especially in  
economic downturns.
Remember: voters are extremely sensitive to tax-cut proposals and which  
social segment would benefit from them. The middle class brings you victory,  
so promise tax cuts for these people, with tax increases for the wealthy and  
high unemployment rates.
Even if the economy is OK, point out the signs of coming crisis and promise  
to change the situation fast. Keep talking about problems, though itâ€™s hard  
to win if the incumbent President runs for re-election with balanced budget  
and economic growth.
You can be liberal on domestic issues, but you have to be conservative on  
national security (defense and foreign affairs).

What to talk about where
Iowa, New Hampshire -        farm problems, energy costs, trade issues
Northern â€œrustbeltâ€ states -   industrial concerns
Southern states -                defense and social issues
New York State -                unemployment


    Use these tactics:

  1.â€œJoin the crowdâ€ â€” this reinforces peopleâ€™s natural desire to be  
on the winning side and it is used to convince the audience that your program  
is an expression of the nationâ€™s desire for change, and it is in their best  
interest to join;
2. â€œProvoked disapprovalâ€ â€” persuade a target audience to disapprove  
your opponentâ€™s message by suggesting that the message is popular with  
groups hated, feared or held in contempt by the target audience;
3. â€œIinevitable victoryâ€ â€” you invite those who did not join majority;
4. â€œNeuro-linguistic programmingâ€ â€” you will be elected if you can do  
this better than your opponent and program the whole nation for a positive  
reaction. People always try to avoid anything and anybody unpleasant; and  
people are always looking for pleasant things and other pleasant people,  
somebody they want to meet again and again or at least see on TV. Everybody  
wants to be a winner; and to be a winner brings pleasure and self respect.  
Just convey this sense to the nation:
â€œVote for me and you win!â€ or
â€œVote for me or you lose!â€
â€œThe choice is yours!â€

   Now, you have to be the first to install this program in the votersâ€™  
minds and the other candidate has no chance.

                                         Chapter 2.        The White House  
Management.

The White House costs us $ 1 billion a year.
The US President is paid $400,000 a year. He is the only person in the White  
House and in Washington, DC who deserves every penny of his salary.

   With the election you are transformed into the most powerful person in the  
world, leader of America, Head of State, Head of the Executive Branch,  
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces and Chief Diplomat. Itâ€™s a tough  
job. Itâ€™s an unimaginable responsibility. Let us look step by step through  
the problems, crises, mistakes to success and professional presidential  
style. If you were a Governor or a Senator before, stop acting like Governor  
or Senator and become President. Unfortunately, most Presidents canâ€™t get  
rid of their previous working and personal style, act slow and bring chaos to  
the White House, especially during their first term (which could be the  
last). Iâ€™m sure youâ€™ll be different. Relax, be pleasant, and never, even  
for a second, think about yourself as a historic figure. From now on you live  
in a goldfish bowl â€” stared at, studied and investigated.

2.1   Iron-Clad Rules for the President
Be strong.
Be attractive.
Be logical

2.2    Presidential Calendar

Time is your #1 value â€” learn how to run it properly through your White  
House staff. Divide your life in the White House into two 4-year-long terms  
and then divide your term into cycles. All you have to do during your first  
term is to take care of the second one â€” thatâ€™s your agenda. The second  
termâ€™s agenda is to set your place in the worldâ€™s history.

   First year. You have enough public support to start big initiatives.
Presidents have a â€œhoneymoon,â€ some period after the inauguration, up to  
3 months, when the opposition party refrains from attacks and Congress is  
inclined to support you too. This is a nice time for unrealistic public  
expectations, so set a national agenda right away and declare strong  
initiative on tax and budget issues.
Attention: once the first 100 days are gone (productive opening period), the  
media hounds will start baying. Once 180 days are past â€” Congress starts  
biting! President Kennedy said once: â€œI made two mistakes during my first  
year. One was Cuba. The other one was letting it be known that I read as much  
as I do.â€
   Second year. Develop your initiatives. Itâ€™s a time when inevitable public  
disappointment comes after high expectations. Your proposals inevitably  
antagonize certain interest groups and your popularity declines, because some  
groups develop into consistent winners and others â€” into consistent losers.  
You have to help your party with mid-term elections when the entire House and  
one-third of the Senate is up for re-election â€” itâ€™s the best indicator  
of the nationâ€™s approval or disapproval of your presidency. (But if you are  
not popular at the time, donâ€™t show up in public often and donâ€™t  
â€œhelpâ€ certain candidates. George W. Bush ignored this rule and  
Republicans lost the House of Representatives in 2006). If you fail to do  
what you plan in the first two years, better get it done fast!
  Third year. Go, go public preparing your re-election. Presidents often lose  
voters during this period.
  Fourth year. All-politics year. Try to achieve some important international  
agreement (a treaty) for the historic record. Win re-election.

   Divide each year into 2 cycles:
1st cycle â€” late autumn and early winter prepare State of the Union Address  
to Congress, new legislation and budget recommendations.
2nd cycle â€” in late winter and spring promote these proposals and prepare  
for annual â€œBig Eightâ€ summit.

   Then, thirteen appropriations bills must be passed each year to keep the  
federal government operating:
1. Agriculture, rural development and related agencies.
2. Commerce, Justice and the judiciary, State and related agencies.
3. Defense.
4. District of Columbia.
5. Energy and water development.
6. Foreign assistance and related programs.
7. Interior and related agencies.
8. Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education.
9. Legislative branch for Congressâ€™s own operations.
10. Military construction.
11. Transportation and related agencies.
12. Treasury, Postal Service and general government agencies.
13. Veterans Affairs, Housing and Urban Development, and independent agencies

In the nine months leading up to the October 1 start of the federal  
government fiscal year, you and Congress must meet several deadlines to  
ensure that the money needed to operate the government will be available when  
the fiscal year begins:
- the first Monday in February, you have to submit budget requests.
- April 15 is the target date for the House and Senate to agree on a budget  
resolution setting guidelines for spending and taxes.
- on May 15, House Appropriations Committee and subcommittees begin acting on  
spending bills
- during the summer and early fall, House-State conferences resolve  
differences between their versions of the appropriations bills
- October 1 is the drop-dead date for you to sign appropriations bills into  
law

   There are also several  important activities that somehow were left out of  
the Constitutionâ€™s description of the Presidentâ€™s functions. As Head of  
State you represent the American people on ceremonial occasions. You have to:
- light the national Christmas tree
- preside over the Easter egg roll on the White House lawn
- hold receptions to honor Americans who have won international prizes, such  
as the Nobel Prize
- greet astronauts returning after their missions
- give out the Presidential Medal of Freedom
- give recognition to charities like American Cancer society
- attend funerals of foreign Heads of State (you can send Vice President,  
Secretary of State or one of the former US Presidents in some cases)
- honor the war dead by laying wreaths at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier on  
Memorial Day and veterans Day
- issue proclamations each year celebrating national holidays such as  
Thanksgiving Day and Independence Day

You can use ceremonial occasions to campaign for your reelection, make policy  
proposals, create an atmosphere of confidence and promote patriotism and  
national pride. Presidents who neglect ceremonial duties may find they have  
more time to develop policy and actually run the government, but they are  
sacrificing a tool of leadership that can be used not only to inspire the  
nation to greater accomplishments, but also to improve their own popularity.  
You can also manipulate your political calendar for electoral advantage.  
Itâ€™s OK if your popularity declines after the first year in the Office.  
Most important is year number 3, which starts the reelection campaign.

Divide your week into days.
Monday and Tuesday â€” decide plans and priorities for the week (with senior  
White House staff, Secretaries and Congress leaders). Limit those who can see  
you every morning to the top three â€” Chief of Staff, National Security  
Adviser and your scheduler.
Wednesday, Thursday, Friday â€” guide execution and make decisions. Donâ€™t  
forget about your weekly radio address.

Divide your day into hours and minutes.
General rule is 30% of your weekly hours go to senior White House staff, 10%  
â€” to Cabinet, 5% â€” to Congress members, 5% â€” to foreign leaders.
No matter what, even if itâ€™s a war time, sleep one hour during the day to  
give your brain a break, and finish your day at 6 P.M. After 6 P.M. do not  
read any documents, do not take any phone calls, do not talk to anybody but  
family members and close friends. Most presidents are manipulated by their  
aides, overwork themselves and fail to reach the age to which they were  
expected to live at the time of their election.
And â€” eat whatever you want, but you must know that the more calories you  
have to digest, the slower you think.
Have a strategy for the last day of your presidency â€” maybe youâ€™d like to  
pardon some convicted criminals, either to soften your image, make some more  
useful friends - or to make life more difficult for your rivals.

2.3  "Golden" rules

1. You are a national image (a national ideal based on pseudo-facts). You are  
supposed to be a symbol of national unity, national continuity and the symbol  
of federal government. You have to be a religious person and affirm religious  
values and set a moral example.
Leadership is the first quality Americans look for in you - they want a  
President who is steadfast in his convictions. You are done with elections,  
but you are not done with your image.
2. The power to control the federal budget is your top prerogative.
3. Whom are you going to be? Make a choice:
- utopist (ideas manipulator)
- manager (Government and Congress manipulator)
- challenger (reformer)
4. Any problem turns into a political one if it threatens your power.
5. Use your legal right to press the nation and illegal ones to press the  
world to eliminate problems.
4. Once youâ€™re in politics, you are a hostage of your status and you must  
sacrifice privacy in return for power.
6. Never play alone - you are power as part of a group.
7. All your decisions are risk taking ones (any decision brings a problem).  
You may ask advice before you make a decision, but donâ€™t listen to anybody  
afterwards. You are not paid for the quantity of your work but for leadership  
and ultimate decision making. (If your adviser approaches you with a fresh  
idea, ask him why isnâ€™t everyone else using it).
8. Correct political mistakes before they became political scandals, but  
avoid any rush - think three times and check ten times before you sign  
anything (emergency is a loss of control).
9. No easy matter will come to you as President - if they are easy they  
should be settled at lower levels. Donâ€™t trust those who work too much and  
who push you too often (people who try to influence you go to your advisers,  
because they know you listen to the people close to you).
10. Never blame previous Presidents for the problems they left for you -  
thatâ€™s a sign of weakness.
11. Get rid of a  White House tradition to deal with problems only if they  
â€œknock at the door.â€

Your priorities are:

1. Economic policy: government taxing and spending, regulation and promotion  
of business, monetary supply, agriculture support.
2. Social policy: income security, housing, health care, education
3. Civil rights and liberties policy: discrimination prevention; voting  
rights and basic liberties
4. Natural resources &amp; environmental policy: clear air and water, wildlife  
protection, national parks, public lands, water resources
5. Foreign &amp; national security: new weapons systems, troop levels, military  
alliances, intelligence activities, foreign aid, foreign trade, treaties,  
relations with foreign governments, immigration

2.4 The Media

There are two power centers in the United States â€” TV and Washington, DC.  
Just as the press needs the White House to carry out its functions as the  
collector and interpreter of news and information, so the White House needs  
the press to spread its message. Your popularity depends on the amount of  
good and bad news about your administrationâ€™s policy dispensed by the  
media. No straight answers! If you rule the media, you rule America.

Press Conference

   A press conference is the US Presidentâ€™s conference to proffer news items  
to the press, and not the pressâ€™s conference with the President. Behave  
like a king and they will take you for a king.
Donâ€™t let reporters provoke you into making any promise or statement  
unprepared; talk about the â€œbadâ€ issues before they ask you to; never say  
â€œI donâ€™t knowâ€ but say: â€œThe problem is under studyâ€ instead.  
â€œCool offâ€ reporters by re-asking the question in terms that allow you to  
answer it more easily.
Evade a question by pleading inability to reply on grounds of national  
security.
Change the tone and direction of the questioning by calling on a reporter  
with a reputation for asking â€œsoftâ€ questions. (Better yet, to show off  
your achievements answer a question that wasnâ€™t asked).
Use press conferences to influence public opinion and to understand public  
opinion judging by the questions.
Donâ€™t schedule any press conferences during an international crisis â€” as  
a rule, they inflame the situation. But you really need press conferences  
when your polls go down.
Your Press Secretary has to be exceptionally articulate, smart and loyal,  
because he is your image and echo. He is in charge of the news management and  
that includes:
a) daily briefings to announce the Presidentâ€™s initiatives and positions,  
appointments or pending legislation. In such a way the White House, not the  
media, sets the news agenda for the day (the â€œstory of the dayâ€).  
Reporters have to buy it because they need pictures. Your Press Secretary may  
also provide special â€œbackgrounderâ€ briefings for reporters to explain  
certain initiatives (these briefings may go â€œon the record,â€ meaning that  
the remarks may be quoted and the source identified, â€œon background,â€ in  
which the source canâ€™t be identified, â€œon deep backgroundâ€ when  
attribution of any sort is prohibited, and â€œoff record,â€ in which  
information given to reporters may not be included in their stories and is  
mainly provided for their guidance. Briefing sources may range from the  
President personally to Cabinet members, the White House staff and policy  
experts.
b) stonewalling -  â€œNo comment.â€
c) any bad news should be released on late Friday nights when media  
organizations are minimally staffed and news is likely to draw less public  
attention over the weekend.
d) staged events:
- exclusive interviews to selective reporters from major news organizations,  
those who are known to be sympathetic toward the administration
- private interviews to Washington-based foreign correspondents from  
countries that are scheduled to be visited. In such a way you set the stage  
for your visit and define your objectives and expectations on your own terms.
e) private contacts with media (the best way to build media support).
f) keeping a â€œblack listâ€ of reporters who donâ€™t report favorably on  
the President and his policy.

Because of the Press Secretaryâ€™s closeness to members of the news media, he  
is able to pick up public opinion trends and issues. The Office of  
Communications, that monitors the print and electronic media for stories of  
interest to the White House, has to bring you a one-page report every day.
You can get as much attention as you want. You are the most public figure in  
the world and everything you are doing and talking about inside and outside  
the White House has to be recorded. Every time you leave the White House you  
have to choose the right place or event, or accept the right invitation and  
deliver the message which is most important now. You rule the situation if  
you rule the flow of information, and if you canâ€™t control events use your  
power to control the flow of information and give the first interpretation of  
events.
You are the White House boss but not the Washington, DC chief â€” you need  
the back up of public opinion for the next four years at least; but you must  
centralize policy making in the White House no matter what!

2.5  Hiring  and firing

   The appointment power is an extremely important tool enabling you to gain  
control of your administration and direct national policy. Numbers first:  
1,125 Presidential appointees require Senate confirmation, including 185  
Ambassadors, 94 District Attorneys, 94 US Marshals. (The Senate, though, may  
use its confirmation power as a political bargaining trick and â€œput on  
holdâ€ your nominee until you agree to do them a favor â€” actually, they  
keep him a political hostage).
Office of Presidential Personnel makes decisions or recommends Presidentâ€™s  
actions on 5842 jobs. Ten forms must be executed by the candidate, including  
a White House personal data statement, a waiver permitting the review of past  
tax returns, FBI questionnaire, a financial disclosure statement for the  
Office of Government Ethics so that identify possible conflicts of interests.

  "Golden" rules

Avoid criminals, drug addicts, alcoholics, homosexuals. All come with a risk  
of future embarrassments.
Avoid widespread mistake of hiring staff and the Cabinet judging by  
communication abilities and not by professional skills; remember â€”  
efficiency is low if staff consists of old or young people only.
Do not hire your wife, please; or anyone else who cannot be fired.
Look through previous administrationsâ€™ lists, talk to chairs of Congress  
committees, college professors (law, economics, national security), big  
business (friends, partners, donors). Pressure from your congressional  
supporters will influence most of your appointments.
Do not hire independent persons, no matter how experienced they are.
Follow the quotas (one black Secretary and one Latino)
Interview key positions candidates in person (Chief of Staff and his  
Deputies, all Assistants, Secretaries and Deputy Secretaries, federal  
agencies chiefs, US Ambassadors) and use the following criteria:
- commitment to your philosophy and program
- integrity and personal qualifications
- experience and skills
- no personal agenda
- toughness needed to fight the Washington establishment (Congress + media +  
interest groups)
Give key positions to your campaign donors and team members who showed to you  
personal loyalty. No key positions go to another political party members.  
Itâ€™s advisable that you give a Secretary of Defense position to somebody  
who is expert in weapons systems and defense budgeting.
Find jobs for some defeated Congress members. Please.
Donâ€™t hesitate to hire a personal assistant on any problem .
Talk straight and demand loyalty .
Itâ€™s good to take newly appointed Cabinet members and senior White House  
staff to Camp David for some informal meeting, drinks and the first open  
discussion on your future policy.

2.6   The White House Staff

  Starting with President Franklin Roosevelt, the trend has been for  
Presidents to act through the Executive Office of the President or the  
National Security Council rather than through the Cabinet. This has created a  
situation n which the White House Chief of Staff, the Director of the Office  
of Management and Budget and the National Security Advisor are more powerful  
than some Cabinet members.
  The Executive Office of the President is headed by the White House Chief of  
Staff and  consists of the immediate staff of the President, as well as  
multiple levels of support staff reporting to the President, total of 1,800  
full-time equivalent employees. Senior staff within the  Office have the  
title â€œAssistant to the Presidentâ€, second-level staff have the title   
â€œDeputy Assistant to the Presidentâ€ and third-level staff have the title  
â€œSpecial Assistant to the Presidentâ€.

2.6.1 The White House staff serves to:
- protect your political interests
- act as principal political advisers
- distill information and provide a perspective from which the President can  
make an informed decision
- direct the implementation of your priorities by the bureaucracy
- process important political and economic information and process ideas  
coming from Congress, events and crisis situations, executive branch  
agencies, public opinion, party, interest groups, media and most important  
â€” from President and staff (ideas always have to be politically attractive)
- operate effectively inside the White House triangle: the Presidentâ€™s  
schedule â€” the flow of papers â€” the press. The most powerful figures in  
the White House are senior staff because they provide information for your  
decisions, evaluate policy proposals by Cabinet Secretaries, control  
activities of the executive branch, maintain liaison and lobby the Congress,  
interest groups, party leaders and media and control access (and information)  
to you â€” thatâ€™s what the Chief of Staff is doing (remember â€” there is  
no person # 2).

Here they are:

Chief of Staff to the President
Assistant to the President &amp; Deputy Chief of Staff
  Assistants to the President:
National Security
Senior Adviser
National Economic Council
Domestic Policy Council
Press Secretary
Communications
Counsel to the President
Homeland Security
Presidential Personnel
Legislative Affairs
Intergovernmental Affairs
Staff Secretary
Political Affairs
Cabinet Secretary
Public Liaison
Director of Presidential Scheduling
Director of Speechwriting
Chief of Staff to the First Lady
Director of Advance Management, Administration &amp; Oval Office Operations

Executive Agencies:
Director, Office of Administration
Chair, Council of Economic Advisers
Director, Office of Management and Budget

  Chief of Staff
  The Chief of Staff reviews most of the documents that go to you, gives his  
advice after intense information processing and consultations with other  
agencies and then â€” heâ€™s telling others what President wants. A lot of  
people, including Congressmen and Senators, will try to reach you through  
him. He has to give good instructions to the Press Secretary on the White  
House message about current headlines and the Presidentâ€™s plans and actions  
(the Press Secretary works the same way with VP and First Lady press teams).  
He is responsible for your time and has to plan at least two months ahead  
your effective activity together with Communications, Scheduling and other  
policy officesâ€™ Directors plus VP and First Lady Chiefs of Staff.
Besides, he has to do â€œdirty jobsâ€ for the President like firing people  
or act as a â€œlighting rodâ€ to draw criticism away from the President.
National Security Adviser
  The National Security Adviser controls all the documents concerning national  
security coming from Defense, State Departments and national security  
agencies, and coordinates these offices. His position is not subject to  
Senate confirmation, which, according to a long-standing Washington  
tradition, means that he canâ€™t be compelled to testify before the Congress.  
He decides what papers the President should see and, whatâ€™s more, he gives  
his comments on any document. (National security is 100% the Presidentâ€™s  
business, so keep this figure at some distance and donâ€™t let him think of  
himself as your Number Two â€” foreign leaders will try to work through him  
to get to you or to influence you.) He has to oversee the functioning of the  
National Security Council (NSC), which is your foreign policy making tool and  
a â€œgovernment inside government.â€ This is something very special and  
convenient about the NSC â€” itâ€™s responsible only to you and thereâ€™s not  
much Congress control over its budget. Of course, the National Security  
Adviser is involved in every meeting between you and any foreign leader and  
is responsible for the schedule.

The most powerful of executive offices after the National Security Council is  
the Office of Management and Budget (itâ€™s authorized to make cuts in  
federal agenciesâ€™ budgets, to advise you on national fiscal and economic  
policies, supervise execution of the government budget, evaluate the  
performance of federal programs).

   Staffers (and Secretaries) prefer stability and donâ€™t like it if youâ€™re  
â€œrocking the boatâ€ â€” thatâ€™s why they often play reform-stoppers. They  
donâ€™t like to work hard and prefer to send you on â€œvery important  
visitsâ€ abroad as often as possible. They try to load you up with an  
extremely busy schedule and â€œfeedâ€ you hundreds of useless documents,  
create artificial problems and conflicts to show off their hyper-activity.  
They try to be your decision makers and they do influence you because, unlike  
Secretaries, they have daily contact with you; thatâ€™s why you donâ€™t see  
Cabinet members as your principal aides. They try to set you up by  
interpreting your decisions and orders in their own way, as every Adviser is  
the â€œAmerican President himself.â€ They know you wonâ€™t accept  
â€œcomplicated,â€ â€œexpensive,â€ â€œriskyâ€ projects and they try to sell  
you â€œsimple,â€ â€œcheapâ€ and â€œpopularâ€ ones only.
   Watch your senior staff and how they present ideas. If somebody wants to  
push his idea or a project, he will give you three options, making two of  
them unattractive. Naturally you pick the one he presented as least harmful.

     2.6.2  "Golden" rules of the White House Staff :

1. Fight for access (influence) to President or to people with direct access  
(aiming to get a better position if President is re-elected).
2. Isolate government from the President.
3. Influence = relationship with the President.
4. Get a table in the West Wing. You are nobody if you are stuck in the White  
House basement and see the President by appointment only.
5. Before you send a document to the President, have to look at it and ask  
yourself if itâ€™s too immoral or too radical.
6. Never say â€œnoâ€ aloud to anybody.
7. Remain anonymous with conflicts.
8. Never bring bad news to the President - let it be some idiot, not you.
9. Never say â€œThatâ€™s impossible,â€ no matter what the President is  
asking you to do.
10. Disappear (and find an excuse later) if the President is in a bad mood.
11. Never ague with the President if thereâ€™s somebody else present.
12. Learn how the President likes to do business (talking, giving orders,  
writing the documents and taking notes, managing official and non-official  
meetings) and his habits (food, drinks, cigarettes, favorite sport, movies,  
show business stars, writers, politicians; attitude to women) and try to copy  
him â€” the President has to feel comfortable with you.
13. Fight anybody whoâ€™s trying to do your job to be closer to the  
President.
14. Avoid taking on risky tasks controlled by the President in person (if  
necessary, try to â€œdelegateâ€ it to somebody else).
15. Avoid being associated with any failures.
16. Donâ€™t say anything President doesnâ€™t want to hear.
17. Use â€œSmithâ€™s Principleâ€: if it can be understood by Congress,  
itâ€™s not finished yet.
18. Write memorandums not to inform the reader, but to protect the writer.
19. No matter what subject is under discussion, employ the language of sports  
and war: say â€œbreakthroughâ€ instead of â€œprogressâ€ , never speak of  
compromise, consider â€œadopting a fallback position.â€
20. Every public appearance in with the President is an investment in your  
career after the White House.
21. Minimize the number of rivals.
22. Gain independence according to how much the President needs you.
23. Before asking the President for some personal favor, make him believe  
heâ€™s going to get some (political) profit out of it.
24. Tell the President what he can do and help him try to do it, and never  
tell him what he shouldnâ€™t do.
25. Avoid giving any personal gifts to the President if you are not Chief of  
Staff.
Every public appearance in with the President is an investment in your career  
after the White House.

There is an open power struggle between national security staff members and  
domestic policy staff and between those who develop new policies and  
initiatives versus budget staff.

2.6.3  How to Manage the Staff

Adopt a dominant management style:

1. Pyramidal, structured as hierarchy with you at the top, followed by the  
Chief of Staff and other key assistants â€” I strongly recommend this one â€”  
it insures a clear chain of command and provides precise channels of  
information going up and directives going down. It permits specialization at  
the lower levels and control at the top. Besides, those higher up in the  
system are able to provide you with more accurate information in a timely  
manner, while filtering out and eliminating unnecessary information. (The  
problem is â€” nobody wants to bring you important bad news).
2. Circular, when you are surrounded by advisers, all of whom have  
approximately equal access to the Oval Office. That usually means too much  
access and chaos, and overloading you with information â€” 99% of which  
should not appear on your table (per JFK).

All your assistants are political assistants and everyone will try to play a  
policy-maker. But a good thing is - all of them were not elected and are  
responsible to you only. Thus you can:
- reform your staff freely as thereâ€™s not even a word about it in the US  
Constitution
- interchange key figures if domestic crisis is approaching
- if you donâ€™t agree with the staff on important issues, go to polls for  
back-up. (The best employee is the one you can blackmail. Besides, a very  
good â€œpusherâ€ for your people is their deep understanding that they have  
to work together to help the President stay in office next term â€” if the  
President leaves, everybody leaves)
- use â€œthe carrot and the stickâ€
- use â€œpulling by pushingâ€ â€” give an important job without publicity to  
those who become too popular
- do as little reading as you can â€” you have staff for that
- do as little writing as you can â€” same reason
- involve yourself personally in your staff and Cabinet jobs as little as you  
can â€” same reason
-  make no minor decisions â€” same reason
-  send back any intelligence or other report if itâ€™s more than one sheet  
of paper

  2.7  The Cabinet

   If the bureaucrats are wearing you down, you have the right to fire any  
Secretary. However, Cabinet members must be approved by Senate, therefore,  
you have to negotiate with the Senate leaders and party leaders throughout  
the country. As a result, some positions may go to people you donâ€™t know  
well and canâ€™t trust. Then if you want to re-organize the Cabinet you have  
to confront the Congress, because Congress tries to protect the interests of  
its constituents, who are often the clients of the existing bureaucratic  
agencies. So, if you plan changes you have to appoint people who share your  
strategy.
  You may also need to offer a position to a group that you need to support in  
the coming election, or whose help you need; or to help pass legislation  
(these people will be more loyal to their political benefactors than to you).
  Secretaries  have disadvantages compared to the staffers as they donâ€™t  
have easy access to the Oval Office (again, that depends on you). Some of  
them had little or no contact with you before being appointed. Actually,  
their task is to win the backing of key interest groups and thatâ€™s why you,  
practically speaking, donâ€™t need Cabinet meetings (if thereâ€™s no crisis).  
If a Cabinet member feels independent (usually, thatâ€™s the Secretary of  
State), donâ€™t fire him - substitute him by the national security adviser or  
send him abroad on a regular basis .
  Six positions have Cabinet-level rank, which allows these individuals to  
attend Cabinet meetings: Vice President, White House Chief of Staff,  
Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Director of the Office  
of Management and Budget, Director of the National Drug Control Policy,  
United States Trade Representative
   The Cabinet members work hard during a crisis only. They prefer to save  
their plans and suggestions for private conversations with you, because that  
is what you need them for and they are competing with other Secretaries for  
your time, support and for funds. Itâ€™s not easy for the President to make  
government agencies work effectively â€” first, you have no time, second -   
they have no competition. Anyway, you must have insiders in all departments,  
especially in the Justice Department (FBI), CIA and Secret Service firing  
anybody whoâ€™s trying to dig dirt on you.

    2.7.1 Secretary of Defense
   The Secretary of Defense is  a very special and unique position for many  
reasons. This department is regarded a non-political one, defending the  
United States no matter what (never let him decide, though, what and where US  
interests are). Military leaders have a lot of friends in Congress who press  
the administration to accept military demands. Besides, itâ€™s not easy to  
manage the Pentagon, as you depend on the military for evaluations of the  
national military capacities; they decide also what kinds of weapons to buy  
and build. Half of the federal budget goes to Pentagon, making it a major  
department and thatâ€™s the most frustrating aspect of your management.
  You have to find compromise between you, Congress, public opinion, interest  
groups and defense contractorsâ€™ lobbyists.
  The defense budget affects diplomacy and international relations, because  
governments worldwide scrutinize it for clues about US global intentions. For  
example, increases in defense spending, particularly for items such as naval  
vessels and aircraft, may signal a White House intention to pursue more  
aggressive foreign policies, and cuts in defense spending may indicate an  
effort to scale back on defense commitments.

2.7.2  The Cabinetâ€™s Hidden Structure-
   The Cabinet is divided into the inner circle (State, Defense, Treasury,  
Justice) and outer, less important one (Interior, Agriculture, Commerce,  
Labor, Health and Human Services, Housing, Transportation, Energy, Education,  
Veterans Affairs, Homeland Security). While inner Cabinet members are  
selected more on the basis of personal friendship and loyalty, outer Cabinet  
members are selected more on the basis of geographical, ethnic or political  
representation and adopt an advocacy position for their Departments.
   The inner Cabinet is divided into two groups:
Ð°) national security group (State and Defense Departments).
b) legal-economic group (Justice and Treasury Departments). The Attorney  
General usually serves as the presidentâ€™s attorney and this special  
responsibility leads to close personal contact with the President. The  
Secretary of Treasury is very important in domestic monetary and fiscal  
policies and international trade and currency.
   The outer Cabinet is a â€œdomesticâ€ group. Donâ€™t waste your time  
meeting them - you have enough staffers for that. Sometimes â€œouterâ€  
Secretaries try to build their political base of support within their own  
bureaucracies. Donâ€™t hesitate to fire and replace any of them if they start  
to criticize you and behave politically independent, counting on bureaucratic  
and interest groupsâ€™ support.
   Thereâ€™s one (negative for you) thing in common between all Secretaries -  
self-interest pushes them to protect and expand their departments and then  
they act more like representatives of their departments to the President then  
the presidential envoys they were appointed to be (â€œdivided loyaltyâ€).
   Then Secretaries of State and Defense usually form a coalition against your  
National Security Adviser. You must be a smart mediator as  
Commander-in-Chief. These two have weekly meetings, and each of them has a  
weekly meeting with the DNI (Director of National Intelligence), so you must  
know from independent sources what they are talking about in case they  
â€œforgetâ€ to tell you the details. The Defense Secretary  meets weekly  
with the Joint Chiefs, too.


Line of succession to the Presidency of the United States
Vice President

Speaker of the House of Representatives
Senate president pro tempore.
Secretary of Defense
Secretary of State
Secretary of Treasury
Attorney General
Secretary of Homeland Security
Secretary of Interior
Secretary of Agriculture
Secretary of Commerce
Secretary of Labor
Secretary of Health and Human Services
Secretary of Housing and urban Development
Secretary of Transportation
Secretary of Energy
Secretary of Education

  2.8  Strategic Planning

Thatâ€™s the biggest problem for all administrations. Strategic planning  is  
the process of making present decisions based on very well-calculated future  
consequences. The basic strategic objective is a decision as to where to  
concentrate the government efforts â€” this is the essence of strategic  
planning.
The worst example of strategic planning is the war in Iraq.
It is crucial to choose a professional crew and place people in positions  
where their brains will work effectively and produce quality.

Planning formula:
- design strategy
- amplify and clarify strategy into policy
- organize a team
- guide execution
- make final strategic decision

A. Regular Planning Model:
subject, concept, idea definition of objectives
design of innovative options and debate
exploration of concepts, claims and possibilities
development of program outlines
establishment of expected performance criteria and indications
information gathering
integration of ideological elements
assignment of executive responsibility
scheduling
analysis and experiment
experiment evaluation, examination of likely consequences
comparison of expected and actual performance levels
determination of costs
prognosis
strategic decision
B. Express planning: information interpretation, projects design, choice of a  
project, decision
C. Regular (math) model:
Negotiations planning (example): pressure, compromise,  tricks,  break.
Letâ€™s evaluate "pressure": negative international reaction /-1/, breakdown  
/-1/ ,positive effect /+1/. Score: -2+1=-1 Conclusion: no pressure should be  
used.
D.  Expertise model.
Government crisis (example): poor planning- wrong decisions- wrong actions-  
wrong execution- opposition activation- mass protests- coup
E. Scale model.
Risk factors:                                         Risk levels:
Intenational sanctions                            medium
High inflation rise                                   medium to high
High unemployment                               medium to high
Low public support level(low polls)           medium

2.9   Presidential decision making rules:
1. Decision making is a multiple choice process.
2. Any decision involves political risk.
3. If you canâ€™t make a decision, you need more information.
4. Be optimistic, but remain realistic.
5. Give yourself a deadline.
6. No brainstorming chaos.
7. There are two kinds of decisions: irreversible and reversible. Better know  
which kind you are facing.

     Hereâ€™s the process:
a) Identify the problem
b) Analyze the problem â€” what are the facts?
c) Evaluate options â€” what are the pros and cons? what can go wrong?
d) Identify choices â€” which alternative is the best?
e) Implement plans â€” what action needs to be taken?

         Bonus

  Psychological Modeling of a President (Strategic Intelligence Method)

Intelligence services worldwide watch political leaders during public  
appearances, trying to calculate their physical and mental health judging by  
their look and behavior. In the US they also evaluate the executives and  
staffers who surround the President at official meetings to calculate  
whatâ€™s going on in the White House.
They look at:
- a very detailed biography
- personal needs, interests, philosophy
- political views
- intelligence, will-power, character, abilities
- behavior in crisis situations
- compromising facts and possible methods of influence
- personal, political and big business VIP connections
- financial situation
- administration and team
- political opposition and President
- Congress


                                                Chapter 3.    Domestic Policy

You canâ€™t separate domestic and foreign policies because they are married  
to the same ugly guy â€” the budget deficit.
   Domestic policy rests on three legs: education, health and environment.  
Americans will never support reduced funding for education, Social Security  
and Medicare (Medicaid) cuts and weakened environmental-protection laws. But  
I strongly advise you â€” donâ€™t bother trying to emulate Europe and the  
British Commonwealth by providing health care for all - the privately insured  
middle class (your voting majority) wonâ€™t stand for it. If you donâ€™t  
believe me, go to the polls.
  Now, are you a challenger in politics? If â€œyes,â€ strengthen your  
political positions in Washington, DC first, then start some reforms. Before  
you start a reform you have to win the information war with your opponents  
and get public support. A reform is always a venture; the process may start  
taking on momentum and you wonâ€™t be able to stop it. You had better  
continue old reforms using a new tactic because new reforms bring new  
problems, new enemies and new mistakes, and big economic mistakes bring you  
an economic crises.

3.1  Dealing with big business .

1. Big organized money moves big political machines, big political machines  
move big lobbies, big lobbies move the President.
2. The President is an investment.
3. A group that rules the economy rules the White House.
4. A new political course comes not with a new President, but a change of big  
businessâ€™ global financial interests.
5. Follow 3 "golden rules":
- protect big investments
- help to promote
- donâ€™t interfere.
6. If the government doesnâ€™t meet the needs of big business, it forms a new  
one of its own (something like a Presidentâ€™s Council). This usually happens  
when the President canâ€™t provide financial stability and super-profits.  
Besides, big business has much more important foreign connections than the  
government.
7. Big business is:
a) money
b) political and economic control
8. Any political action gets an economic (big business) reaction.

In terms of partisan politics, Republicans are considered to be more  
sympathetic to big business interests while traditionally  Democrats get  
electoral and financial support from organized labor.
Forget about antitrust policy  business has become more global and efforts to  
enforce antitrust policies have proven deficient and are threats to national  
security.

3.2   The Economy

Economic strategy is as important as national security.
Appoint bright, educated and experienced people to the Cabinet and the  
Federal Reserve Board, who advise you on important economic decisions.
Press foreign governments on trade and currency issues.
Watch the markets 24/7.
Balance the budget (half goes to national defense - if thereâ€™s no war there  
are no jobs in America - 35% of US business works for Pentagon.

  In general, the key word in domestic policy is accomplishment â€” budget  
balanced, taxes cut, jobs created. Use your budget power to the full extent  
because people usually hold you, not Congress, accountable for economic  
downturns. Whether you win or lose your second term in the Oval Office  
largely depends on your budget actions.

3.2.1 Managing the Economy

1.Regulate spending, taxation, monetary policy and foreign trade  whichit has  
to be under strict political control - you have the right to propose  
legislation and veto any legislation you think incorrect. Keep in mind that  
Americans always insist on reducing government spending on foreign aid and  
space exploration, and they naturally hate any rise in taxes.
2.State and local governments, both through national associations like the US  
Conference of Mayors and Congress Members, always press the government to get  
more federal funds even at the expense of inflationary budget deficits.
3.Keep unemployment low and prices stable - these two factors are politically  
dangerous and failure here can bring a free-fall in approval ratings.
4.Take credit for economic growth, price stability and low unemployment even  
if you have nothing to do with it.

   Still have problems? Try international initiatives.

There are four inevitable factors that will limit your control over the  
economy:

1) You must share power with Congress â€” you canâ€™t levy taxes or  
appropriate money all by yourself;
2) The theoretical nature of the science of economics â€” no single economic  
theory has ever explained the behavior of the economy in the future;
3) The imprecision of economic information. Economic statistics and  
indicators do not measure the immediate conditions of the economy, but rather  
the conditions that prevailed between one and three months ago, depending on  
the particular economic statistics. Consequently, if you take action on the  
basis of incoming economic information you may be reacting to a problem that  
no longer exists or that is much worse than believed.
4) There are forces outside the reach of the federal government, like  
international factors (oil prices and foreign trade policies), state and  
local governments economic decisions and mistakes, big business decisions  
that affect employment, inflation, the trade deficit and public opinion â€”  
which is always against cutting social programs.

3.2.2 Budget  Deficit

A large budget deficit is a headache and has extremely negative effects on  
the economy:
1.  It limits the governmentâ€™s flexibility to fight a possible recession;  
that requires tax cuts and deficit spending, which would exacerbate the debt  
problem. Since tax revenues fall during a recession and unemployment  
insurance and welfare payments rise, the budget would be under further strain  
precisely when deficit spending would be needed to pull the economy up.
2.  It reduces the amount of funds available for achieving the nationâ€™s  
social and defense goals, because interest must be paid on the national debt.
3.  It can threaten the economy by â€œcrowding outâ€ corporate and private  
borrowers from the credit market. Because the government must borrow heavily  
to finance its deficit, it competes with business and individuals to borrow  
funds. The increased competition forces interest rates higher, causing loans  
(including mortgages) to become more expensive. As a result, business can  
afford to purchase less plant and equipment to expand and modernize their  
operations and fewer consumers can afford to finance purchases of expensive  
items, such as houses and cars. The resulting reduction in demand threatens  
economic growth.
4.  The US budget deficit has become so large that domestic savings no longer  
can provide enough capital to service the debt. Consequently, the government  
must borrow from foreign sources to make up the difference. This makes us  
dependent on foreign investors and raises the possibility of a  
â€œstabilization crisis,â€ which can occur if foreign investors lose  
confidence in the dollar and liquidate their US investments. Such a crisis  
could cause the dollar to plummet and interest and inflation to rapidly  
accelerate.

3.2.3    Crises

     Crises  means that your government as a system is exhausted and itâ€™s  
unable to rule the nation and resources effectively in an extreme situation,  
including economic, natural catastrophes and war. A crisis has three stages  
â€” before the crisis, when the first signs appear; crisis development until  
culmination; catastrophe followed by impeachment. A crisis could be  
â€œprogrammedâ€ at the very beginning of your term (mistakes in political  
and economic courses, inexperienced personnel, faulty planning) or it can  
appear later (too many mistakes, change of political environment, shifts in  
the economic or international situation). Crisis management includes  
pre-crisis management and handling of the situation. You must be ready not  
only for a government crisis but also for sudden military attack, mass riots  
and natural disasters.

   International trade is an important component  of national security. Our  
â€œfriendsâ€ (NATO members, Saudi Arabia and Japan) favor a dollar (that is  
neither overvalued nor undervalued) and a healthy US economy with relatively  
full employment and low inflation rate. If the dollar is weak, the value of  
much of their international currency reserves declines and their goods are  
less competitive in the US market. If the dollar is too strong, their  
investment capital migrates to the US and the high competitiveness of their  
products in the US market threatens to provoke calls for trade restrictions.  
If unemployment in the US rises, the major market for their goods declines.  
If interest rates are higher in the US than in Europe or Japan, investment  
capital moves to our country. Consequently, foreign governments press the  
United States to keep the exchange value of the dollar from fluctuating  
widely and to hold interest rates steady.

3.3  Domestic Propaganda  and Mind Control

To effectively manage propaganda you must understand that most political  
views are acquired through political socialization and the most important  
influences in this process are the following.

1.Family. If both parents identify with one party, thereâ€™s strong  
likelihood that the children will begin their political life with the same  
party preference.
2.Education. School is a transmitter of patriotism. University is a  
transmitter of liberalism.
3.Religion. Roman Catholic respondents tend to be more liberal on economic  
issues than Protestants. Jewish arthe most liberal and vote mostly  
Democratic. Many Northern white Protestants vote Republican, whereas northern  
white Roman Catholics vote Democratic.
4.Economic status. Poor people vote Democratic. Rich vote Republican.
5.Political events. The  war in Iraq divided the nation one-two-three.
6.Influence of opinion leaders. Those are people who have, as part of their  
job, the task of swaying peopleâ€™s views (politicians and media). Their  
interest lies in defining the political agenda in such a way that discussions  
about policy options will take place on their terms.
7.Media. There seems to be no strongly partisan or ideological bias in TV  
coverage, although the visual and mental images conveyed by TV have a  
powerful impact.
8.Race. African Americans tend to be more liberal than white on social  
welfare issues, civil liberties and even foreign policy. They strongly  
support democrats.
9.Political culture (the set of beliefs and values regarding the political  
system that are widely shared by the citizens of a nation). Here the most  
important for us are the degrees of political trust and political tolerance  
which are measured through a specific series of survey questions, best if  
done through the Internet.

3.3.1  Propaganda Technology

You need 24/7 effective propaganda to get non-stop public support of your  
policy â€” your war for public support doesnâ€™t stop the day you enter the  
White House â€” it may stop the day you leave the White House. If your polls  
go below 40%, the United States effectively has no President.

Use the following propaganda tools:

- general (abstract) information on big problem
- information dosage (the less people know â€” the easier you convince them)
- misinformation (full or partial) presented as news, sensations, rumors
- disorientation - one bit of information contradicts another one
- provocation -  information â€œpushesâ€ people (before you start war)
- information over-dosage -  too much information (and people lose interest)
- exaggeration of enemyâ€™s negative sides and promotion of scary data
- distraction of nationâ€™s attention from news that is bad (for you) by  
publishing sensations and (political) scandals
- stereotype manipulation (â€œnuclear threat,â€ â€œinternational terror,â€  
etc.
- â€œshuffleâ€ - all news and facts match Presidentâ€™s political course
- â€œcocktailâ€ -  mix of true and false information
-â€œfacts transportationâ€ from abroad (you buy a foreign reporter and  
heâ€™s publishing positive information on your politics; then you spread the  
information through American media)

Remember the principles of mass psychology: people donâ€™t believe the  
government - they believe the market and the stock exchange; people need  
statements, not analysis.

3.3.2  Mind Control

  Every day in 2004 we watched the Homeland Security Department â€œterror  
alert colorsâ€ and very often the threat was â€œhighâ€ or â€œvery high.â€  
With all my 30 years espionage experience I couldnâ€™t understand why they  
were telling the nation about the threat and producing the multicolor picture  
on TV. Why? What can ordinary Americans do about that? What happened next  
made the situation absolutely clear for me and posed one more question for  
the nation: right after President Bush was re-elected the colors disappeared  
- why? Again, what happened? Is there no more â€œterror threatâ€ to America?  
  There is. But thereâ€™s mind control, too.
  Mind control, which I call mind manipulation or MM, is used to program the  
â€œright political behaviorâ€ of the nation or â€œindifferent behavior,â€  
if necessary, without peopleâ€™s knowing or understanding the procedure. We  
are talking here about total illegal social control.

3.3.3 Principles of Mind Manipulation

1) Itâ€™s not enough if every single citizen, and the nation as a whole,  
thinks and behaves your way - itâ€™s much better if they want to behave your  
way and feel comfortable, and are absolutely sure itâ€™s their own choice  
and, finally, they become your active  supporters.
2) If you want to control the nation and program peoplesâ€™ thoughts, you  
have to control knowledge (information, culture and communication).
3) The political imagination (belief) of the nation has to move in the right  
direction and has to be accepted as the most comfortable and most acceptable  
way of political activity: nobody is thinking, nobody is criticizing the  
President, nobody is making comparisons and drawing conclusions. Everybody  
believes the American President and hates his enemies.
4) Donâ€™t waste time fighting foreign ideology, take care of ordinary  
Americans.
5) There is no difference between commercial and political advertising, and  
MM.

3.3.4 Technology of Mind Manipulation

1) Create a steadfast American collective will-power: â€œWe want to live  
forever in the America we live in nowâ€ - through the media.
2) Donâ€™t ask people to change their views and beliefs - they have only to  
change the object of their aggression - â€œNow we understand who is to be  
blamed for the problems! (the previous President, political opponents).  
â€œNow we understand where the problem lies!â€(economic cycles, etc.).
3) Get people accustomed to accept facts but believe only in the â€œrightâ€  
commentaries  - any common sense has to be â€œswitched off.â€ This way you  
create â€œmass artificial schizophreniaâ€ â€” people lose the ability (and  
desire) to connect statements and facts (notions) and just believe.
Besides, by extreme exaggeration of the enemyâ€™s negative qualities you can  
install step by step the national schizophrenic fear and people have to  
accept you, the US President, as a savior. Plus, no matter what, repeat your  
major statements until people start accepting them without thinking.
4) Divide the nation into â€œgood Americansâ€(patriots) and â€œbad  
Americansâ€(the â€œminority).
Then make it clear that itâ€™s much better and more comfortable to be  
â€œgoodâ€ than â€œbad.â€ â€œWe arenâ€™t watching good Americans who support  
the President. The surveillance is for bad Americans and we make their lives  
and careers uncomfortable. We have to do that because enemies of America may  
be using them.â€ This method is called artificial social selection and its  
ultimate goal is a total regulation and standardization of the nation.
5) For successful MM, use the combined efforts of popular American writers,  
TV and radio anchors, talented publicists and columnists, business and show  
business celebrities, politicians. Thus, step by step you create the  
â€œindustry of correct political behavior and correct American thinking.â€
6) Use a combination: statement + image. It reduces the effort needed to  
understand your message and makes people comfortable with you.
7) Shift all popular TV shows to prime time - Americans donâ€™t have to think  
about politics after they come home.
8)  Keep terrorists in Guantanamo Bay forever - Americans have to see the  
threat every day .


3.4  Emergency Powers of the President  (Setting Aside Democracy)

I. Powers over individuals.
Confine any individuals seen to be threats to national security.
Restrict travel of Americans to other nations or travel of some foreigners to  
the USA.
Restrict movement of citizens within the United States.
Require persons, because of their backgrounds, associations with certain  
groups, or ownership of particular articles (such as weapons), to register  
with government officials.
Restrict certain persons from working in industries names as critical to  
national security.
Remove federal employees regarded as threats to national security.
Declare martial law.
Assign armed forces to conflicts in foreign nations.
II. Powers over property.
Order stockpiling of strategic materials (such as uranium).
Impose restrictions on exports (such as hi-tech products).
Allocate materials in ways necessary to aid national defense.
Require industries to give priority to government contracts and seize  
industries failing to comply with such orders.
Fix wages and prices.
III. Powers over communication.
Withhold information from Congress and the public deemed potentially  
sensitive to national security.
Monitor and censor communications between United States and other nations.
Require foreign representatives to register with US government.
The President also has the authority to declare states of emergency in areas  
of the country hit by hurricanes, floods, earthquakes or other natural  
disasters, and to use this to enhance his power or public image.

                                     Chapter 4.    The US Congress Management

â€œTo my mind Judas Iscariot was nothing but a low, mean, premature  
Congressman.â€
â€œIt could probably be shown by facts and figures that there is no  
distinctly native American class except Congress.â€ â€” Mark Twain
â€œIf everybody here connected with politics had to leave town because of  
chasing women and drinking, youâ€™d have no government.â€ â€” Senator Barry  
Goldwater.
One night President Cleveland was awakened by his wife: â€Wake up! There are  
burglars in the house!â€ â€œNo, my dear,â€ said Cleveland sleepily, â€in  
the Senate maybe, not in the House.â€
â€œIsrael controls the US Senate. The Senate is subservient, much too much;  
we should be more concerned about US interests rather than doing the bidding  
of Israel. The great majority of the Senate of the US â€” somewhere around  
80% â€” is completely in support of Israel; anything Israel wants, Israel  
gets. This has been demonstrated again, and this has made [foreign policy]  
difficult for our government.â€ â€” Senator W. Fulbright, April 15, 1973).

   The White House, not Congress, represents the nation. You are the leader  
and you set the legislative agenda. They canâ€™t start business until you  
give them State of the Union Address and a budget message. Thatâ€™s your  
program - and theirs. Start your first term with a big legislative victory.  
The US Constitution says nothing on how you manage the Congress so feel free  
to use the advice in these pages.


  4.1 How a Bill Becomes a Law

  A Senator or Representative introduces a bill in Congress by sending it to  
the clerk of the House or the Senate, who assigns it a number and title. This  
procedure is termed the first reading. The clerk then returns the bill to  
appropriate committee of the Senate or the House. If the Committee opposes  
the bill, it will table or â€œkillâ€ it. Otherwise, the Committee holds  
hearings to listen to opinions and facts offered by members and other  
interested people. The Committee then debates the bill and possibly offers  
amendments. A vote is taken, and if favorable, the bill is sent back to the  
clerk of the House or Senate. The clerk reads the bill to the house â€” the  
second reading. Members may then debate the bill and suggest amendments.
  After debate and possibly amendment, the bill is given a third reading,  
simply of the title and put to a voice or roll-call vote. If passed, the bill  
goes to the other house, where it may be defeated or passed, with or without  
amendments, If defeated, the bill â€œdies.â€ If passed with amendments, a  
conference committee made up of members of both houses works out the  
differences and arrives at a compromise. After passage of the final version  
by both houses, the bill is sent to the President. If the President signs it,  
the bill becomes a law. The President may, however, veto the bill, refuse to  
sign it and send it back to the house where it originated. The Presidentâ€™s  
objections are then read and debated, and a roll-call vote is taken. If the  
bill receives less than a two-thirds majority, it is defeated. If it receives  
at least two-thirds, it is sent to the other house. If that house also passes  
it by at least a two-thirds majority, the veto is overridden, and the bill  
becomes a law.
   If the President neither signs nor vetoes the bill within 10 days â€” not  
including Sundays â€” it automatically becomes a law even without the  
Presidentâ€™s signature. However, if Congress has adjourned within those 10  
days, the bill is automatically â€œkilledâ€; this indirect rejection is  
termed a pocket veto.

4.2  Functions of Congress

   If you want to rule America, you have to rule the US Senate. Remember, you  
are one person concentrated on your program. Congress is a big and  
disorganized, chaotic institution â€” not a single word pronounced by these  
people ever makes history. Respect Congress anyway â€” it creates the  
illusion that the American people influence big politics through their  
representatives.
The functions of Congress are supposed to be:
- lawmaking for all Americans
- serve constituents as brokers between them and federal government
- representation of diverse interests â€” which is often impossible, because  
members canâ€™t be delegates for everyone
- oversight of the bureaucracy to follow up the laws it has enacted to ensure  
that they are being enforced and administered in the way Congress intended
- by holding committee hearings and investigations, changing the size of an  
agency budget and cross-examining high-level presidential nominees to head  
major agencies (a formality, nothing serious)
- the public education function
- resolving conflicts in American society (see â€œInterest groupsâ€ game).

Differences between the House and the Senate:
         House                                                                  
      Senate

435 members                                                        100  
members
Members chosen from local districts                        Members chosen  
from entire state
Two-year term                                                        Six-year  
term
Originally elected by voters                                     Originally  
(until 1913) elected by state legislatures
May impeach (indict) federal officials                        May convict  
federal officials
Debate limited                                                        Debate  
extended
Floor action controlled                                             Unanimous  
consent rulers
Less prestige and less individual notice                     More prestige  
and media attention
Originates bills for raising revenues                           Power to  
advise the President on, and consent to, presidential appointments and  
treaties
Local or narrow leadership                                        National  
leadership
  National leadership

The major difference between the House and the Senate is that the Houseâ€™s  
rules and procedures are strict, while Senate rules are more broad and open  
to interpretation.
Thereâ€™s one thing they have in common â€” inertia.
Note: Members of the Senate serve for six years, with only one-third of the  
body up for reelection every second year. Thus, every other Senate term is  
not affected directly by a Presidential election and this gives Senators  
greater freedom to oppose presidential initiatives without as much concern  
about short-term constituent pressures. The Senatorsâ€™ independence can be a  
problem for the president even if they are of the same party.

The Congress has five main checks over the Presidentâ€™s power:
1. to override a veto
2. to approve your appointees to federal jobs
3. to approve treaties
4. impeachment
5. to stop funding executive department programs

Seniority (the length of continuous service on the record of a member of  
Congress or Senate) is the single most important factor in determining:
- who becomes Speaker of the House or President pro tempore of the Senate
- who is influential in floor debates
- who has an easier time getting his legislative measures adopted on the  
floor of Congress

Never mind about Representatives (especially when it comes to foreign affairs  
and national security) â€” they understand very little and can do practically  
nothing due to their two-year term. Your problem is the Senate (though you  
have to be involved in Congressional elections every two years, too.) Yes,  
the Senate is a problem because it shares executive powers with the President  
(confirmation of appointments and approval of treaty ratification). And if it  
comes to impeachment, the final decision is the Senateâ€™s.
The House originates the most important thing in the United States â€” tax  
legislation, but the Senate can amend any bill and the trick is â€” they do  
this toward the end of the session. And the worst problem on Capitol Hill is  
balancing the budget.
   Committees of the Senate:  Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry,  
Appropriations, Armed Services, Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, Budget,  
Commerce, Science, and transportation, Energy and Natural Resources,  
Environment and Public Works, Finance, Foreign Relations, Government Affairs,  
Health, Education,Labor, and Pensions, Judiciary, Rules and Administration,  
Small Business, Veterans Affairs.
   Committees of the House: Agriculture, Appropriations, Armed Services,  
Budget, Education and the Workforce, Energy and Commerce, Financial Services,  
Government Reform, House Administration, International Relations, Judiciary,  
Resources, Rules, Science, Small Business, Standarts of Official Conduct,  
Transportation and Infrastructure, Veterans Affairs, Ways and Means.

   4.3 What you don't know about them

1. A Congressional session is nothing else but a waste of federal time and  
money â€” you donâ€™t need debates because Congressional staffers can do all  
the technical work and they can negotiate between themselves and balance  
positions. Senators and Congressmen donâ€™t even have to come to Washington  
â€” they can vote from their local offices. So these people can spend their  
time helping thousands of constituents, most of whom never saw their Senator  
alive.
2. The President is dependent on Congressional cooperation to carry out the  
executive responsibilities of the Office because Congress has to authorize  
government programs, establish administrative agencies to implement the  
problems and funds to finance them.
3. Itâ€™s important if President belongs to the party with a majority in the  
House and Senate. But if your party loses the majority in Congress, you have  
to work out new political strategy yourself. And you know what? Go to the  
polls right away and ask voters why they supported the other party. What  
happened?
4. Presidentâ€™s prestige (popular support or political capital) affects  
Congressional response to his politics.
5. Influence in Congress is courted only for long periods of service; a  
Senator with 30 years in office (like Edward Kennedy) has considerably more  
power than a Senator in his first or second term.This causes the electorate  
to increasingly favor incumbents, as dislodging oneâ€™s Congressman or  
Senator after 30 years, even if the candidate or his party have become  
unpopular, can be viewd as hurting oneâ€™s district financially. It is often  
thought that a freshman would be less able to bring home federal money for  
his state or district.
6. For most Senators, the Senate is a platform for Presidential election  
campaign. Senators who openly express presidential ambitions are better able  
to gain media exposure and to establish careers as spokespersons for large  
national constituencies.
7. The first act of a newly elected Representative is to maneuver for  
election to the Senate. Why? First, they enjoy their position, power and  
money for six years non-stop. Second, there are only a hundred Senators and  
the publicity is much, much greater. Butâ€¦Representatives have a much better  
chance to be re-elected.
8. Congress rejects two thirds of Presidentâ€™s proposals.
9. Senators are always looking for a BBD (bigger, better deal) and often  
shift from one committee to another (a good choice is those dealing with  
taxes, budget, energy, commerce).
10. Bills to benefit big business move smoothly. (Congress doesnâ€™t like the  
poor â€” they donâ€™t contribute; sorry). To gain majority support for big  
business legislation members have a special trick â€” log rolling, when  
factions combine efforts.
11. Senators donâ€™t depend on the people â€” they depend on the media.
12. If a certain Senator is blocking the Presidentâ€™s proposal, appointment  
or plan, that means he wants to get the Presidentâ€™s attention.
13. When Senators want to bury issues without resolving them, they create  
committees.
14. The Senate is a relatively small structure and personal relations between  
Senators are extremely important.
15. Senators have no incentive to study the details of most pieces of  
legislation and their decision is simplified by quickly checking how key  
colleagues have voted or intend to vote.
16.To have power a Senator has to object: much of the Senate work is done by  
unanimous consent and if you object youâ€™ll be approached for sure by some  
influential people including other Senators, Secretaries, Presidentâ€™s aides  
or the President himself. Theyâ€™ll try to press, blackmail or buy you â€”  
and that means youâ€™ve got a piece of the power pie.
17. Senators avoid responsibility and their legitimate functions and roles,  
especially in economic policy.
18. Congress doesnâ€™t like it when any government agency grows, but these  
people love the military because military contracts are very lucrative for  
Congressional districts.
19. Senior Senators teach â€œnewcomersâ€ to vote against any reform which is  
a threat to their stability.
20. A Senator has real influence on legislation only if he has professional  
staff in charge of the projects.
21. Senators are afraid to vote against a defense budget increase because  
then they may be accused of a lack of patriotism (the Pentagon gives jobs in  
their states too).
22. Republicans and Democrats are not really enemies, here, though both sides  
are always looking for a â€œtraitorâ€ or â€œinsiderâ€ in the other camp.
23. You must have â€œinsidersâ€ in the Senate yourself, because the other  
party could prepare secretly and then launch officially some investigation  
against you or the members of your Administration.
24. A legislator does exactly what his voters want him to do â€” stealing  
federal money from other states and districts, because for him the most  
important thing is numbers â€” polls in his state showing how many people  
approve his activity. His donors watch these numbers too and estimate their  
investment and the necessity to support re-election.
25. Every member of Congress has a so-called â€œsplit personalityâ€ â€” a  
â€œHill styleâ€ while working on Capitol Hill and a â€œhome styleâ€ while  
back in the state or district with the voters.
26. A Senator makes a decision only after thinking about what it means in  
terms of the re-election money that will come to him or to his opponents. His  
voting decisions depend on his party membership, constituency pressures,  
state and regional loyalty ideology, interest groupsâ€™ influence. His  
stubbornness comes from the fact that he doesnâ€™t want to be seen by his  
constituents as a â€œrubber stampâ€ for Presidentâ€™s decisions, especially  
when the bill in question benefits a Senatorâ€™s state. (And the hidden  
problem is â€” you want to move fast, especially during the first year while  
your personal popularity is high â€” but for the Congress speed is not  
important).
27. Sooner or later every member of Congress starts playing the â€œpork  
barrelâ€ game. Itâ€™s nothing else but a diversion of federal funds to  
projects and places not out of national need but to enhance a memberâ€™s  
chances of re-election in his district (military projects, federal buildings,  
highways construction projects). So be ready for a â€œChristmas giftâ€ when  
these fellows add pork barrel amendments to appropriations bills you are  
about to sign. They often wait until late in each session to pass critical  
spending bills, which narrows your range of possible responses because a veto  
may not be feasible if Congress has adjourned and the funds needed to run the  
federal government are contained in the legislation.
28. In Congress a small percentage of bills (about 500 out of 10,000)  
actually become law because many bills are introduced merely to get favorable  
press. The strategy is especially effective if the legislation is â€œtiedâ€  
to the headlines of the day (mass murders, natural disasters, ethnic riots  
etc.).
29. In the Senate itâ€™s easier for  a minority to block the bill than for a  
majority to pass it: a 60-vote majority is needed to force a final vote on  
the bill, while only 41 votes are needed to continue debate and delay a vote.
30. The  minority can hold the majority responsible as the party in power for  
whatever legislation does or does not emerge from the Senate. But both  
parties prefer to be the party in power in the Senate - all Senate  
legislation begins in the committees, whose membership and chairmanship are  
controlled by the party in power. Besides, each chairman has power in terms  
of controlling the committee budgets and deciding which hearings will be held  
and which legislation he will allow to be released to the Senate floor for a  
vote. He can also â€œlock up the billâ€ in committee until it dies. Perfect!

4. 4 A Few Congressional Run-ins with the Law

Upon certification by the Senatorâ€™s/representativeâ€™s home state, a new  
Senator/Ð epresentative takes an oath of office:
  â€œI,(name) do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the  
Constitution of the United States against all enemies,foreign and  
domestic;that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same;that I take  
this obligation freely,without any mental reservation or purpose of  
evasion;and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the  
office on which I am about to enter:So help me Godâ€.

1904    Senator Joseph Burton of Kansas is convicted of bribery.
1924    Representative John Langley of Kentucky is convicted of violating the  
National Prohibition Act.
1931     Representative Harry Rowbottom of Indiana is convicted of accepting  
bribes.
1934    Representative George Foulkes of Michigan is convicted of conspiracy  
to assess postmasters for political contributions.
1946    Representative James Curley of Massachusetts is convicted of mail  
fraud and conspiracy.
1947    Representative Andrew May of Kentucky is convicted of conspiring to  
defraud the government and accepting bribes.
1948    Representative J. Parnell Thomas of New Jersey is convicted of  
conspiring to defraud the government, payroll padding and receiving kickbacks  
from salaries.
1954    Senate censures Senator Joseph McCarthy of Wisconsin for having acted  
â€œcontrary to senatorial ethicsâ€ and for bringing the Senate â€œinto  
dishonesty and disrepute.â€
1956    Representative Thomas Lane of Massachusetts is convicted of federal  
income tax evasion.
1969    Representative Hugh Addonizio of New Jersey is convicted of  
extortion, conspiracy and income tax evasion. In a separate incident, on  
Chappaquiddick Island in Massachusetts on July 18, a car driven by Senator Ed  
Kennedy plunges off Dike Bridge into the water. While the Senator manages to  
extricate himself from the vehicle, his young secretary Mary Jo Kopechne, a  
passenger, is trapped and dies in the car.
1970     Representative John Dowdy of Texas is convicted of conspiracy,  
perjury and bribery.
1972     Representative Cornelius Gallagher of New Jersey pleads guilty to  
tax evasion.
1973     Representative Frank Brasco of New York is convicted of conspiracy  
to receive bribes. Representative Bertram Podell of New York pleads guilty to  
conspiracy, bribery and perjury.
1975    Representative Andrew Hinshaw of California is convicted of bribery  
and embezzlement.
1976     Elizabeth Ray avers that Representative Wayne Hays of Ohio put her  
on the payroll solely because she was his mistress. The Washington Post  
reveals a Justice Department investigation into influence buying by Tongsun  
Park, a South Korean businessman. Representative James Hastings of New York  
is convicted of mail fraud.
1977     Representative Richard Tonry of Louisiana is convicted of receiving  
illegal campaign contributions and obstruction of justice.
1978     Representative Charles Diggs of Michigan is convicted of mail fraud  
and perjury.
1980    Representative Michael Myers of Pennsylvania is convicted of bribery  
and conspiracy as part of the FBIâ€™s ABSCAM investigation. Senator Harrison  
Williams of New Jersey is convicted of bribery and conspiracy in ABSCAM.  
Representative Raymond Lederer of Pennsylvania is convicted of conspiracy and  
bribery in ABSCAM. Representative John Jenrette Jr. of South Carolina is  
convicted of bribery and conspiracy in ABSCAM Representative Frank Thompson  
of New Jersey is convicted of bribery in ABSCAM. Representative John Murphy  
of New York is convicted of bribery in ABSCAM. Representative Richard Kelly  
of Florida is convicted of bribery in ABSCAM. (ABSCAM was an FBI sting  
operation in which a mysterious Arab sheik Abdul bribed top US officials and  
inveigled them into illegal investment schemes.)
1983    Representative George Hansen of Idaho is convicted of filing false  
financial disclosure statements.
1987     Representative Barney Frank of Massachusetts, who had disclosed that  
he was a homosexual, was accused of hiring a former sex partner as a personal  
assistant.
1988    Representative Mario Biaggi of New York is convicted of obstructing  
justice, tax evasion, conspiracy, extortion and accepting bribes.  
Representative Pat Swindall of Georgia is convicted of perjury. 1989  
Representative Donald Lukens of Ohio is convicted of contributing to the  
delinquency of a minor. Representative Jim Bates of California accused of  
sexually harassing women on his staff.
1990    Senator David Durenberg of Minnesota is charged with receiving  
illegal reimbursements for housing expenses and for backdating his purchase  
of a share in a condominium. The senate formally denounces him in July 1990  
and orders him to make restitution for his financial misconduct. The  
â€œKeating Fiveâ€: As the trial of Arizona financier Charles Keating  
proceeds, it becomes known that five US Senators (Alan Cranston of  
California, Dennis DeConcini of Arizona, Donald Riegle of Michigan, John  
Glenn of Ohio and John McCain of Arizona) used their influence to limit the  
regulation of Keatingâ€™s savings bank. (By 1987 McCain received about  
$112,000 in political contributions.) The Senate Ethics Committee issues a  
report reprimanding Senator Cranston for accepting more than $850,000 in  
contributions to voter-registration groups that he sponsored in return for  
intervening on Keatingâ€™s behalf with bank regulators. The other four  
Senators are mildly reprimanded for their conduct.
1991     Representative Nick Mavroules of Massachusetts pleads guilty to  
bribery and tax evasion.
1993    Representative Larry Smith of Florida is convicted of income tax  
evasion and campaign-reporting violations. Representative Albert Bustamante  
of Texas is convicted of racketeering and accepting an illegal gratuity.
1994    Representative Carrol Hubbard of Kentucky pleads guilty to filing a  
false financial-disclosure statement.
1995    Representative Mel Reynolds of Illinois is convicted of having sex  
with a minor and obstructing justice.
2006    Representative Mark Foley of Florida resigns because of sex letters  
he e-mailed to a 16-year-old boy.

         4.5 How to Control Congres

   The President can propose legislation, but Congress is not required to pass  
any of the administrationâ€™s bills. But you know already that Senators and  
Representatives need re-election more than anything else. So you can go with  
indirect influence through appeals to the public; this is a confrontation and  
direct challenge to Congressional authority. You can also enlist the support  
of interest groups or direct influence through favors and personal  
involvement in the legislative process. (Get public support for a proposal  
before itâ€™s discussed with the Congress.) And donâ€™t hesitate to start a  
national debate â€” you have enough media attention for that.
   You also have an independent tool, presidential power in the form of an  
executive order. You can give favors directly to members of Congress or to  
influential people in their constituency, or the favor may be of benefit to  
the constituency itself:
- appointments with the President and other high-ranking officials
- federal grants to recipients in the constituency, government contracts with  
local companies, the deposit of federal funds in banks, grants to local  
government and educational institutions
- support of projects (military installations, research and administrative  
facilities, public works such as buildings, dams and navigational  
improvements to rivers and harbors, etc.)
- recommendations for the US district court judges, attorneys, marshals, etc.
- campaign assistance (cash contributions from the partyâ€™s national  
committee invitations to bill-signing ceremonies, White House parties or to  
accompany President on trips
- bargaining and arm-twisting (pressure and threats to lose the projects).

         Tools

1. The Congressional Relations Office. Used for:
- intense lobbying to form Congressional coalitions if the opposition  
controls one or both houses
- intelligence gathering (of policy preferences â€” centralized headcounts  
reveal the voting intentions on a particular bill and constituency concerns  
of individual members)
- representation
- creating â€œinner coalitionsâ€
- coordination of executive branch legislative activity (monitoring and  
tracking bills, controlling departmentsâ€™ staff appointments, collaborating  
with departmentsâ€™ liaison offices)
Attention! Senators and Congressmen have to trust your people, who must keep  
their mouths shut, otherwise there will be no business. Anyway, watch these  
people â€” a Senator can call one of your assistants and if they hear   
â€œno,â€ he will try to reach somebody else until he gets â€œYes, the  
President will see you.â€ Donâ€™t let this happen â€” if itâ€™s â€œno,â€ it  
has to be everybodyâ€™s â€œno.â€ There has to be no difference between  
personal views of your adviser and your official views.
2. Congressional Relations personnel of various executive Departments are a  
conduit. Talk to the Secretaries and explain to them that they have to give  
the Director of Congressional Relations their best people.
3. The White House interest groups liaison staff (office of public liaison)
4. Veto. Threatened with a veto, Senators often seek compromise.
Congress has its ways to undermine your vetoes or threats of vetoes. Because  
you canâ€™t veto parts of a bill, they load up major legislation with  
amendments on a completely different subject (â€œridersâ€) that they know  
the President must accept. (Presidents who vetoed the most bills: Franklin  
Roosevelt  - 635, Harry Truman - 250, Dwight Eisenhower - 181, Ronald Reagan  
- 78, Gerald Ford - 66).
5. Executive agreement. It permits the President to enter into open or secret  
agreements with a foreign government without any advice or consent of the  
Senate. There are two categories of executive agreements:
Ð°) presidential agreements made solely on the basis of the constitutional  
authority of the President and under his sole power to faithfully execute the  
laws (or under his diplomatic or Commander-in-Chief powers). President needs  
to report secret agreement to the Foreign Relations Committees of the two  
houses no later than 60 days after such agreement has entered into force.  
Congress has no authority to disapprove it.
b) congressional-executive agreements, which cover all international  
agreements entered into under the combined authority of the President and  
Congress.

Finally, this is what you can do with a bill:
- sign the bill (the bill becomes a law)
- do nothing (the bill becomes a law in ten days)
- veto the bill (the bill does not become a law)
- pocket veto the bill (hold the bill until Congress is no longer in session,  
and the bill does not become a law)

     4.6  The â€œIron Triangle,â€ a Sub-Government Mafia

   The â€œIron Triangle,â€ an anti-presidential control system, is a strong  
alliance among three groups â€” federal agencies, interest groups and  
Congressional committees and subcommittees, where each member has a mutually  
beneficial relationship with the other two and all members work together to  
pursue common goals. (This strong connection between federal agencies and the  
Congress members is especially dangerous for the President in a political  
sense â€” itâ€™s too hard to influence them). Agency careerists, interest  
groups lobbyists and members of Congress and their staffers with close  
personal mafia-like relationships discuss policy issues (proposed  
legislation, budget, personal concerns) and then agree on preferred outcomes  
on the basis of the mafia principle of exchanging favors. Bureaucrats want  
unlimited funding and legislation granting them maximum authority and  
discretion. In return, members of Congress want preferential treatment for  
their constituencies, technical assistance for their staff, and often help in  
drafting legislation. Interest groupsâ€™ lobbyists want members of Congress  
to pass and fund programs that benefit groups and to help group members be  
appointed to and confirmed for key government jobs. In return, Congress wants  
financial and political help for their campaigns. Interest groups want a  
strong say in federal agenciesâ€™ decisions, including the writing of  
regulations, ideally through a formal advisory system that would give the  
interest group either formal or informal veto power over such decisions. In  
return, federal agencies want the political support of interest groups,  
including positive congressional testimony and lobbying for additional funds  
for the agency.

Interest Groups

There are 80,000 lobbyists in Washington, DC . The National Rifle Association  
has a full-time Washington, DC staff of 300 lobbyists.

  Congress canâ€™t live without interest groups, interest groups canâ€™t live  
without Congress. They are glued together and you must know the hidden  
mechanism of their relations if you want to manage the US Congress properly.  
An interest group is any organized group whose members share common  
objectives. These groups actively attempt to influence government policy  
makers, mostly Senators and Representatives, through direct and indirect  
strategies, including the marshalling of public opinion, lobbying and  
electioneering.
   Lobbyists, like professional spies, are always looking for intelligence  
information on everybody in Washington, DC from personal contacts, government  
memos, press releases, public information programs, technical bulletins and  
regulations. For them the most important thing is to obtain information  
before itâ€™s officially released â€” it allows their customers, i.e.  
corporations, to develop PR campaigns to offset possible adverse reaction to  
their goals. Letâ€™s have a closer look at their strategies.

I. Direct strategies
1. Lobbying
   The main activity of lobbying is private meetings, in which lobbyists make  
known to Congressmen the lobbyistâ€™s client interests, and possibly offer  
inducements for cooperating. Lobbyists furnish needed information Congressmen  
could not hope to obtain on their own. Itâ€™s to the lobbyistâ€™s advantage  
to provide accurate information so that the policy maker will rely on him in  
the future.
  Lobbying includes: testifying before congressional committees for or against  
proposed legislation; testifying before executive rule-making agencies, such  
as the Federal Trade Commission, for or against proposed rules; assisting  
legislators or bureaucrats in drafting legislation of prospective regulations  
(lobbyists often can furnish legal advice on the specific details of  
legislation); inviting legislators to social occasions such as cocktail  
parties or boating expeditions; providing political information to  
legislators (lobbyists often have better information than the party  
leadership about how other legislators are going to vote). In this case, the  
political information they furnish may be a key to legislative success).
2. The â€œRatingsâ€ Game
The over-all behavior of legislators can be influenced through their rating  
systems. Each year the interest group selects those votes on legislation that  
it feels are most important to the organizationâ€™s goals. Legislators are  
given a score based on the percentage of times that he or she voted with the  
interest group (from 0 to 100%)
3. Campaign assistance
A strong side of interest groups is that they are able to provide workers for  
political campaigns, including precinct workers to get out the vote,  
volunteers to put up posters and pass out literature. In states where  
membership in certain interest groups is large, candidates look for the  
groupsâ€™ endorsement in the campaign.
Endorsements are important because an interest groups usually publicizes its  
choices in its membership publication and because the candidate can use the  
endorsement in his campaign literature. Making no endorsement can be  
perceived as disapproval of the candidate.
II. Indirect Strategies
By working through third parties â€” which may be constituents, the general  
public or other groups, the interest groups can try to influence government  
policy. Indirect techniques mask the interest groupâ€™s own activities and  
make the effort appear to be spontaneous. Furthermore, legislators are  
usually more impressed by contacts from the constituents than from an  
interest groupâ€™s lobbyist.
1.Generating public pressure
Interest groups try to produce a â€œgroundswellâ€ of public pressure to  
influence the government. Such efforts may include advertisements in national  
magazines and newspapers, mass mailings, television publicity and  
demonstrations. They may commission polls to find out what the public  
sentiments are and then publicize the results. The goal of this activity is  
to convince policy makers that public opinion wholly supports the groupâ€™s  
position. Some corporations and interest groups use such a method as climate  
control â€” it calls for public relations efforts that are aimed at improving  
the public image of the industry or group and not necessarily related to any  
specific political issue. Contributions by corporations and groups in support  
of public TV and commercials extolling the virtues of corporate research are  
examples of climate control. By building a reservoir of favorable public  
opinion, groups believe it less likely that their legislative goals will be  
met with opposition by the public.
2. Constituents as lobbyists
A very effective method is to use constituents to lobby for the groupâ€™s  
goals. In the â€œshotgunâ€ approach, the interest group tries to mobilize  
large numbers of constituents to write or phone Congressmen or the President.  
This method is only effective on Capitol Hill when there is an extraordinary  
number of responses, because legislators know that the voters did not  
initiate the communication on their own. A more influential variation of this  
technique uses only important constituents (mostly local big business).
3. Building alliances
Interest group forms alliance with other group concerned about the same  
legislation. The advantages of an alliance are that it looks as if larger  
public interests are at stake, and it hides the specific interests of the  
individual groups involved. Itâ€™s also a device for keeping like-minded  
groups from duplicating one anotherâ€™s lobbying efforts.

One of the strongest iron triangles is a so-called â€œmilitary-industrial  
complexâ€ â€” its members include the Department of Defense, weapons  
contractors and related firms and congressional armed services committees.  
Some popular interest groups include: American Bar Association, American Farm  
Bureau Federation, American Welfare Association, Fund for Constitutional  
Government, National Association of Community Action Agencies, National Rifle  
Association, National Organization of Women.

                                      Chapter 5.      Foreign Policy

A king has to do three jobs: persuade the rich to help the poor; persuade the  
best woman to marry him; and persuade other kings to fight each other instead  
of fighting him. OK.
Foreign policy is a set of political goals that seeks to outline how  USA  
will interact with other countries;itâ€™s designed to help protect our  
national interests, national security, ideological goals, and economic  
growth. Successful foreign policy needs electoral and financial support. This  
comes naturally when you demonstrate the permanent presence of external  
threats like the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) or  
international terrorism, to keep the nation alert and in line. Foreign policy  
serves to help you with domestic problems which often â€œpushâ€ you to make  
hard international decisions. Itâ€™s not about democracy in Iraq â€” itâ€™s  
about your reelection.

Presidential Foreign Policy Doctrines
Monroe Doctrine: European powers must keep their hands off the Western  
Hemisphere.
Theodore Roosevelt Doctrine: The United States will police chronic wrongdoing  
or impotence.
Truman Doctrine: To support free people resisting subjugation from internal  
or outside groups.
Eisenhower Doctrine: To intervene in the Middle East against Communist  
attacks.
Nixon Doctrine: To help allies while fostering their reduced reliance on  
troops.
Secretary of State William P.Rogers signs the Peace Agreement ending the  
Vietnam War. 1973.
Carter Doctrine: To keep the Persian Gulf free of foreign control.
Reagan Doctrine: To support anti-Communist insurgencies anywhere.

    5.1  Foreign policy decision making   involves:

- assessment  of the international and domestic political environment
- goal setting. We have multiple foreign policy goals, and we must determine  
which goal is effected by the international and domestic political  
environment at any given time. In addition, foreign policy goals may  
conflict, which will require you to priortise.
- determination of policy options
- decision making action
- implementation of chosen policy option

You have to decide if you want to design and execute foreign policy all by  
yourself, even not telling Secretary of State about your confidential talks,  
negotiations or special operations. Thereâ€™s one more strong point â€” you  
also have considerable advantages over Congress in foreign policy making â€”  
you know why?

  First, as head of foreign policy bureaucracy, the diplomatic corps, the  
intelligence agencies and the military, you control information that is vital  
to the foreign policy making.
  Second, you, unlike Congress, can work with speed and secrecy and this is  
essential if you have to handle international crisis which threatens national  
security.
  Third, since it is your responsibility to communicate with foreign  
governments through treaty negotiations and diplomatic channels, you can most  
easily formulate policy that is consistent with negotiating positions and  
official statements.
  Fourth, as the executor of foreign policy, Commander in Chief of the armed  
forces and appointer of diplomatic personnel, you are in the best position to  
judge the capacity of the government to carry out a given foreign policy  
initiative. Fifth, you are elected by a national constituency and you can  
focus on international problems that affect the entire nation.
  Finally, get  highly professional staff, because international relations   
involve a diverse range of issues, from globalization to global warming,  
nuclear proliferation, nationalism, terrorism, organized crime, human  
security, and human rights.

   "Golden" rules

1. International treaties have to be negotiated by diplomats prior to  
endorsement by  presidents.
2. The information gathered by spies plays an increasingly role in diplomacy  
(arms-control treaties would be impossible without the power of  
reconnaissance satellites and agents to monitor compliance).
3. If you start war, it doesnâ€™t mean you failed diplomacy , it means  
military decision is much more profitable.
4. Make it clear to foreign leaders right away whether you are or you are not  
going to follow the previous Presidentâ€™s foreign policy (after  
consultations with big business). If you are not going to follow it, design a  
doctrine of your own (itâ€™s a strategy that is the recognized approach or  
policy of the US government.
5. National security is your top priority and is the â€œkingâ€™s jobâ€  
because actually you have no domestic political obstacles to your foreign  
policy (if itâ€™s a question of war), so you are a chief decision maker  
there. (The CIA Director has to be excluded from this process â€” you donâ€™t  
need him. Besides, the CIA even today, no matter how hard I tried to educate  
the Agency, remains the worst of the worst and is not to be reformed â€” it  
has to be abolished. We have to transfer political intelligence functions to  
Pentagon. National security is designed to protect the United States and the  
vital interests (investments) of big business and to promote American values  
in a world of rivals, and the CIA, through all 60 years of its history, has  
proved to be absolutely unsuitable for the job).
6. Any country has to be involved in the sphere of our strategic interests if  
it has a strategic geographic position, significant sources of raw materials,  
a well-developed transportation system, or could be used as a military base.  
The strategic policy of any country rotates around the USA and if not â€”  
that means a certain President is waiting for greater incentives to come on  
board. Against target countries, donâ€™t hesitate to use the strategies of  
pre-emptive war, post-war (post-crisis) reconstruction, and nation building  
(which means erasing national identity and supplanting it by liberal values).
  With Chinaâ€™s growth and Russiaâ€™s rebirth, the Cold War is back with a  
vengeance, so we are back to secret deals based on spheres of influence â€”  
but thatâ€™s a temporary strategy.
7. You canâ€™t always do what you want without help -  you are dependent on  
other world leaders, Congressional positions and international public  
opinion. Ask the Senate to help you sometimes - believe me, theyâ€™ll be  
happy and proud to do so.
8. Create super-profitable conditions for big business by political  
penetration worldwide. Big money men start investing abroad when they find a  
safe environment â€” law and order. The more they invest the more political  
power they get (international corporationsis the most important element of   
international system ; the other two are governments and non-governmental  
organizations).
9. Use big investors to ruin other national economies and governments by  
withdrawing finances when the economic situation is worsening. As soon as the  
country opens its financial markets, it increases its dependence on global  
economic processes that it cannot control; and a financial crisis can easily  
be staged. Conversely, other countriesâ€™ access to the US markets is a  
powerful economic and political tool.
10. Make the US markets the most attractive for investors by provoking  
unstable situations in other countries and regions.
11. Send troops or work through military intelligence (not the CIA) to  
wherever you perceive a threat to the US investments.
12. Use pressure everywhere â€” strategic nuclear missiles are still the most  
powerful blackmail tool. Remember, if you are dealing with Russia or China,  
they will look not only for agreement, but for advantages.
13. Use â€œpersonal diplomacyâ€ â€” phone calls to foreign leaders (every  
planned phone call has to go through the National Security Adviser and be  
well prepared, like a serious negotiation). Most important are phone calls to  
our allies â€” NATO members. Donâ€™t forget to wish happy birthday to the  
leaders in person!
14. Use â€œinformal diplomacyâ€ â€“ recruit politicians in other nations who  
might be able to give informal access to a countryâ€™s leadership. In some  
situations, such as betweeb USA  and China diplomacy is done through  
semi-formal channels using  interlocutors such as  academic members or  
thinktanks. This occurs in situations when presidents wish to express  
intentions or to suggest methods of resolving a diplomatic situation, but do  
not wish to express a formal position.
15. Donâ€™t hesitate to use summits  as a tool, because:
-if you meet a foreign leader in person, you can reduce tensions and clarify  
national interests.
-personal relationship may lead to improved relations between nations.
-summits allow you to focus national attention on specific issues.
-presidents engaging in personal diplomacy are much more capable than career  
diplomatic bureaucrats of understanding the domestic policy consequences of  
diplomatic actions.
-summit negotiations can yield quick results, since discussions are between  
leaders with the power of decision rather than between representatives who  
must receive instructions, make reports and rely new proposals.
-diplomatic impasses may be overcome at summits by shifts in policy that only  
top leaders are empowered to make.
-if presidents desire an international forum for their diplomatic policies, a  
summit meeting can provide one.
-successful summits can enhance the image of the President and the United  
States
16. If youâ€™re ready to fight for national interests, forget about human  
rights â€” you can always blame infractions on the other side.
17. Isolation is the greatest enemy to information.
18. Thereâ€™s no sense in applying sanctions if big business isnâ€™t  
interested.
19. Economic and hence, political progress for any country affects the USA  
through economic competition that threatens the market and jobs.
20. Any initiative is risky if itâ€™s about unstable region, but you lose  
popularity fast if you are perceived as indecisive or weak in foreign policy.
21. Any trip abroad has to convey a strong message.
22. Direct military intrusion indicates weakness in your foreign policy. If  
itâ€™s inescapable, involve as many allies as you can.
23. Donâ€™t touch our military bases abroad!
24. Big debts open markets. No matter what, open national markets world-wide  
for American big business and remember â€” the markets, not Presidents, rule  
the world.
25. Tie your allies to international economic projects and make them pay most  
of the expenses.
26. Never talk about money in public â€” talk about democracy, human rights,  
liberal values and disarmament â€” people like it.
27. Move forward â€” transform Americansâ€™ national and patriotic feelings  
into nationalistic ones (follow the French model) to get total support of  
your policy (see â€œMind Controlâ€).
28. Donâ€™t pay too much attention to the CIA â€” all they have to do is to  
support you with appropriate information to justify your strategic political  
decisions - and nothing else.
29. Ignore the UN â€” Secretary General has no real power, but you can take  
advantage of such a thing as the UN peace-keeping if it corresponds with your  
interests - the US economic costs could be minimized. Besides, UN  
peacekeeping can promote a spirit of international accountability in solving  
a certain regional problem. Donâ€™t forget to explain your strategy to the  
Congress - they donâ€™t like the UN either. On the other hand, you have to  
manage an international crisis, if it threatens our national interests (start  
with strategic planning, check national security system for the adequate  
response, use propaganda to get domestic and international support, consult  
with big business and allies, start crisis negotiations if possible, use  
diplomacy (see below) and force or threat of force).
30. To reach global leadership you must have enough resources, national  
support and a well-calculated strategy (see also â€œStrategic planningâ€).  
As you already know, the US budget is financed by foreign lending. When the  
dollar goes down in foreign exchange markets, itâ€™s supported by foreign  
central banks and youâ€™re OK as long as Japan, Saudi Arabia and Germany have  
an interest in propping up the American economy and do not raise the price  
for financing Americaâ€™s debt. The worst situation would be to lose support  
both at home and abroad.

          5.2  What do you need  Department of State for

The foreign policy of the United States is backed by a $ 13 trillion economy.

  From 1947 until 1991, our foreign policy was characterized by the Cold War  
to stop the spread of Soviet communism. The Cold War was characterized by a  
lack of global wars but a persistence of regional wars, often fought between  
client states and proxies of the United States and Soviet Union. During this  
time, U.S. foreign policy objectives seeking to limit Soviet influence,  
involved the United States and its allies in the Korean War, the Vietnam War,  
the overthrow of the Iranian government, and diplomatic actions like the  
â€œopeningâ€ of China and NATO establishment.
  Our foreign policy demonstrates constant inability to combine strategic  
military objectives and diplomatic and political objectives. This means an  
ineffective follow-up to military operations by being unable  to determine  
diplomatic and political goals, resulting in unfavorable situations to either  
the United States or its allies. Examples include the absence of any treaties  
or objectives for post-war Germany and Europe during World War II, resulting  
in the Soviet occupation of most of Eastern Europe; the absence of diplomatic  
and political objectives to follow-up on military victory in  Korean War   
resulting in ongoing preservation of 1953 status-quo; inadequately defined  
objectives for the Vietnam War, resulting in Communist take-over of the  
region; the failure to develop plans to rebuild and re-stabilize Iraq after  
the defeat of Saddam Hussein, leading to the ongoing destabilization of the  
surrounding region and huge expenses required by the United States itself.
  What to do ? No independence for the State Department (and its Secretary) -  
itâ€™s nothing but a â€œmail boxâ€ for your decisions. It has no mission and  
its duty is to monitor the world (people call it the â€œDepartment of Bad  
Newsâ€). Make it clear to the Secretary of State that he/she is not to  
respond to events and not to influence any politician abroad - the State  
Department has to follow the White House instructions only: donâ€™t make  
unnecessary enemies and donâ€™t push any initiatives until you are further  
instructed! Donâ€™t send pointless cables to the White House Situation Room.  
Every time you brief the press - ask the  White House staff what to say. Meet  
foreign leaders to make my message clear â€” nothing, absolutely nothing  
else! And do me a favor â€“ ask  Mrs. Rice, the so-called â€œthe most  
influential woman in the worldâ€ what is Stabilization and Reconstruction  
Office for ? what Pentagon guys are doing there ? who gave the money ? what  
the hell is going on in this damned Dept of State ? now they do Iraq or what  
?
   Besides, the State Department cannot be taken seriously as it has no  
natural domestic constituency like, say, Department of Defense, which can  
call on defense contractors for support. It has negative constituents instead  
â€” people who oppose US foreign policy. Congress has no respect for it and  
looks upon it as an advocate of unpopular and costly foreign involvement. The  
best thing to do is to leave ceremonial functions to the Secretary of State,  
sending the person overseas mostly to VIP funerals.
(President George W. Bush is doing absolutely the right thing by sending his  
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on endless and countless visits abroad.  
If Ms. Rice read these pages, she would have understood that the President  
keeps her far away from the White House because he does not need her and is  
angry â€” most probably because of her own presidential ambitions â€” he sees  
his brother in the Oval Office.)
  After Madeleine Albright, Clintonâ€™s Secretary of State, elected  
international criminal Kofi Annan to be UN Secretary General, a President has  
no choice but to stay far away from the State Dept. If you still hesitate,  
read this pearl of foreign policy making: â€œKofi Annanâ€¦ he seemed born for  
leadership. Annan â€¦ clearly the most qualified person. No one, from any  
continent was more knowledgeable or better preparedâ€ (M. Albright, Madam  
Secretary, 2003).

   A few words about your National Security Council staff. You take a risk by  
using them for secret operations because in such cases you donâ€™t have  
congressional and public support. If the operation is exposed, you face huge  
political problems. So before you start, do some strategic planning on future  
consequences and design counter-measures.

            5.3  World Domination

Securing the top position requires :
- economic domination
- military power â€” pre-emptive war or blackmail by war (seeking domination  
requires an inevitable increase in the military budget)
- a cultural and media invasion
- special operations to influence or neutralize leaders with negative  
attitude

  To keep America on top, we would have to prevent cooperation and coalitions  
between:
  China and Africa
  Shiâ€™ia and Sunni Muslims
  Russia, Germany, and France
  Venezuela and Cuba
  Their trade agreements and alliances will change the geopolitical situation.

  The US seems to have been responding to events rather than anticipating  
them, which means that until now it has had no global international plan.  
Watch where the â€œvectors of forceâ€ are directed and youâ€™ll break their  
strategic plans.
  Donâ€™t listen to experts â€” crude oil world resources will be finished by  
the middle of the century. Get total control over the world oil market by  
force (Iraq and Iran) and take care of the weapons market â€” knock out  
Russia and restrain China (restrict their military research activity â€”  
Chinese nuclear and other WMD had better be our top priority in the next 20  
years).

In most important world regions keep the balance by supporting the country  
which follows the leader:

In Europe â€” support Britain to balance Germany. You rule Europe if you rule  
the Persian Gulf. You rule the world if you rule Europe, and thatâ€™s why you  
have to keep NATO by all means to block the military independence of Europe  
(Germany). And watch Russia â€” itâ€™s still highly militarized and holds  
Europe a hostage.
  In East Asia - support Japan, Russia and Taiwan to balance China.
  In South Asia support Pakistan to balance India.
In Latin America â€” support Argentina to balance Brazil.
  Our country is considered to be a superpower, though European Union, China,  
Russia and India have good potential of achieving the same status.  They all  
have large populations, growing military strength, economic potential and  
influence in international affairs. We are superpower, but we have to admit  
that it does not mean that the world is unipolar â€“ at present itâ€™s a  
unipolar system with one superpower and several rivals, major powers.

   China.  As one of five permanent members of the UN Security Council with  
veto power, China possesses influence in world politics. Itâ€™s  gradually  
increasing its influence in areas which are traditionally dominated by the  
West due to non-ideological approach to foreign affairs and offer of  
no-strings-attached assistance, which thus presents an alternative for  
seeking foreign aid and potential allies. China is the second largest  
consumer of petroleum products after USA, and the Middle East is a  
strategically important region as it  not only possesses vast oil reserves,  
but large portions of its population are opposed to the States. At the same  
time these nations are keen to diversify their customer base away from  
overdependence on the Western market. China has other strategic interests  
there and this is manifested in its security relationships with Saudi Arabia,  
Pakistan and Iran, which entail WMD and ballistic missile cooperation â€“  
direct threat to American aircraft carriers. These three countries are  
pivotal states in the region and they already view China as alternate source  
of security and as a counterbalance to American power.
  China is intent upon establishing a preeminent sphere of influence in  
Southeast Asia and is taking steps to form a political, economic and security  
bloc with ASEAN countries. In 2006 China hosted the heads of states of 48  
African countries in Beijingâ€™s Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Summit and  
now African leaders regularly cite China as an ideal development model for  
their countries. Then comes South America â€“ during a visit to Brazil,  
Argentina, Chile and Cuba in 2004, President Hu Jintao announced $100 billion  
worth of investment over the next 10 years. Besides, China is expanding its  
military-to-military contacts by training Latin American military personnel.
  Chinaâ€™s foreign exchange reserves reached $1 trillion becoming the largest  
in the world. This country is the worldâ€™s second biggest spender on  
research and development and currently has an estimated 926,000 researches ,  
second in number only to the 1.3 million in the United States.

  India.  Indiaâ€™s strength lies in its demographics â€“ more than 50% of its  
population  is under 25.
India has been pressing for permanent membership of the UN Security Council  
but without veto ability (it has received backing from the UK, France and  
Russia while China and USA opposed). India is everybodyâ€™s friend, including  
EU, Japan, Russia, South Africa, Arab World, China and Israel. India is a  
good balance for China and itâ€™s a question of the worldâ€™s stability. The  
economy of India is currently the worldâ€™s largest after the USA, China and  
Japan. India possesses  nuclear weapons, but itâ€™s not a signatory to the  
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty on grounds of security concerns and that  
India condemns  the Treaty as discriminatory.

Russia. Russia is both energy and nuclear superpower with fast-growing  
economy and itâ€™s not  very far from achieving superpower status. Itâ€™s   
the number 2  military power in the world , second only to the United States.  
Russia produced the worldâ€™s most powerful conventional bomb and the  
worldâ€™s most advanced anti-ballistic missile system.

Brazil. Agricultural and oil superpower with one of the largest defense  
budgets and armed forces in the world.


The US has to create and support the most attractive (stable and profitable)  
image for foreign investors against the background of some other countries  
and regimes. A credible world disorder strategy would seem appropriate for  
that (and once you get Iraqâ€™s oil and Iranâ€™s natural gas, establish a  
sufficiently stable environment there for American big business).

Foreign Policy Top  Secretâ€” the â€œDemocracy Trickâ€
Itâ€™s all about natural resources and raw materials.

General scheme:
choose the target country
start war or â€œpushâ€ opposition to launch a coup
bring in â€œliberal valuesâ€
help to move oil and gas into private hands
help to create an â€œopen economyâ€ and â€œopen marketâ€
become the only (the biggest) customer  and stockholder

OIL RESERVES  BY COUNTRY 2007 ( in billions of barrels)

1. Saudi  Arabia                          260
2. Canada                                  179
3. Iran                                        136
4. Iraq                                        115
5. Kuwait                                     99
6. United Arab Emirates                97
7. Venezuela                               80
8. Russia                                    60
9. Libya                                      41.5
10. Nigeria                                  36.2
11. USA                                     21
12. Mexico                                 12



    NATURAL GAS RESERVES 2007 (in billion m3)

1. Russia                                 47,570
2. Iran                                      26,620
3. Qatar                                   25,770
4. United Arab Emirates              6,006
5. USA                                      5,451
6. Algeria                                   5,000
7. Nigeria                                   4,984
8. Venezuela                              4,276
9. Iraq                                        3,115
10. Indonesia                              2,760
11. China                                    2,350
12. Malaysia                                2,124

National security strategy is dead if we  legally allow war crimes.



    5.4  Diplomacy

   Diplomacy  is, first, the art and practice of, first, political espionage,  
second, conducting negotiations between representatives of groups and states.  
It usually refers to international diplomacy, the conduct of internatioal  
relations through the intercession of professional diplomats and spies with  
regard to issues of peace-making, trade, war, economics and culture.  
Diplomacy can be defined as taking responsibility for getting your own need  
in a way that preserves the dignity of others. It includes open inoffensive  
communication (tricks, too), flexibility, specific wording, a positive  
approach, being nonjudgmental an demonstrating a relaxed manner both verbally  
and nonverbally. The key mechanism  of diplomacy is to achieve your goals  
without evoking hostility of other interested parties.
   Diplomacy serves to maintain smooth relations between states and resolve  
disputes. The goal of American diplomacy is to further our interests  
worldwide, safeguard our independence and security and to seek maximum  
national advantage without using force and preferably without causing  
resentment. Actually, diplomacy is just a set of negotiating techniques by  
which we carry out the foreign policy. The United States has diplomatic  
relations with 155 countries, where Ambassadors are the personal  
representatives of the President as well as representatives of the Department  
of State. Each Ambassador heads a â€œcountry teamâ€ which includes a deputy  
chief of mission, heads of political, economic, consular and administrative  
sections; defense, agricultural and foreign commercial service attaches; a  
public affairs office; and, as needed, representatives of other agencies. As  
Iâ€™ve recommended above, the State Department should be removed from foreign  
policy making and re-positioned as a service station or a â€œmail boxâ€ for  
your decisions. Itâ€™s a tough job, but donâ€™t you worry â€” you have a  
perfect tool which is called diplomatic appointment (a career diplomat is  
always a career bureaucrat).
   Of course, the State Department wants to promote its own career senior  
foreign service officers to the Ambassadorsâ€™ positions. They say they have  
experience, but you donâ€™t need them once youâ€™ve got this handbook for  
your people. Besides, their careers are not dependent on you but on a  
self-run promotion system, and because many regard foreign policy as an  
endeavor that should not be subject to partisan politics, foreign service  
officers have a greater reputation for resisting your policies than your  
people â€” political appointees. Trust me, the Senate will be on your side if  
you start a large scale substitution.

   One more thing â€” for specific diplomatic missions you can use your  
personal emissaries who are not subject to Senate confirmation. It allows you  
to transfer your proposals directly into negotiations without having to go  
through the State Department, and to have absolutely independent source of  
information. Usually, when presidents of states more or less equal in  
strength negotiate, they feel free to do whatever they feel is right. With  
the American President the situation must be different â€” your partners may  
disagree with you but they canâ€™t ignore any of your statements. ( You can  
also use Track II diplomacy, in which non-officials (academic scholars,  
retired civil and military officials, public figures, social activists)  
engage in dialogue with the aim of conflict resolution or  
confidence-building, such as between the USA and China. Sometimes the  
exchanges (Track III) may have no connections with the government, or may  
even act in defiance of the government, like 2008 President Carter meeting  
with  Hamas senior officials in Egypt).

   You have to balance and bargain inside a triangle which includes big  
business, Congress and foreign leaders. Why big business? Because it will  
help you with economic problems caused by trends in the world economy.  
Thatâ€™s not the end of your problems â€” you have to balance between  
something else. Modern diplomacy is a very complicated business â€” thereâ€™s  
actually little privacy and secrecy left because our beloved media penetrates  
everywhere. Your plans and initiatives are being published worldwide right  
before you meet your partner and then what? What are you going to do? Change  
your whole strategy? Your partner will draw conclusions and wonâ€™t say a  
word out of respect for the US President. A good thing is â€” you can  
manipulate the media to some extent and form a favorable international  
opinion. More important, you can speak to other leaders through the media  
rather than through private negotiations â€” everywhere worldwide they read  
every word of the White House statements. And if you think there are two of  
you in the Oval Office â€” you and you partner â€” thatâ€™s a mistake â€”  
there are four: you, your partner, the media and public opinion.
   Congress is a smaller problem for your diplomacy. Here you have advantages  
in treaty making: first, you decide what treaties to negotiate, second you  
choose negotiators, third, you develop the negotiating strategy, fourth, you  
submit completed draft treaties for the Senate approval. And you, not the  
Senate (as Americans think), have the final power of ratification â€” once  
the Senate has approved the treaty, it does not become a law until you ratify  
it. If you decide to ratify a treaty the Senate has approved, an exchange of  
ratifications occur between the signatories. Then the treaty is promulgated  
(officially proclaimed to be a law) by you. At any time you can stop the  
treaty-making process, and after a treaty is ratified, you have the authority  
to terminate it without Senate consent. Once the US negotiators have agreed  
upon the terms of a treaty with a foreign government, you must decide whether  
to submit the draft to the Senate for consideration. If it appears that the  
Senate opposition to a treaty will make approval unlikely, you may decide to  
withdraw the treaty to avoid a visible political defeat.
   If you decide to submit a treaty to the Senate for consideration, the  
Constitution requires that a two-thirds majority of Senators vote in favor of  
the treaty for it to be approved. The problem is, the Senate may attach  
amendments to a treaty that require you to re-negotiate its terms with other  
signatories before the Senate grants its approval, but you may decide not to  
re-negotiate. Yes, the Senate has to approve the treaty, but you can avoid  
the battle on Capitol Hill by signing executive agreements with foreign  
governments (like trade agreements, defense pacts, arms control agreements).  
They donâ€™t require approval and give you greater flexibility in foreign  
policy. And you have one more important tool â€” an executive order that has  
the force of law without being approved by Congress. Most executive orders  
pertain to government officials and agencies, but they also may implement  
legislative statutes or help reinforce Constitution or treaties.

     5.4. 1 "Golden" rules

1. Use secret visits (send the National Security Adviser) if the  
international problem is complex and important â€” in this way you donâ€™t  
depend on media and public opinion. Afterwards you can talk, if it was a  
success.
2. If presidents like to drink with each other, they are ready to deal with  
each other.
3. Avoid negotiating on major issues at the end of the day, when your energy  
is low.
4. Negotiate smart, watch your initiatives. The more you tell about your  
position, the less your partner will tell you about himself, and the higher  
price youâ€™ll pay. Diplomacy is all about money and the essence of any  
negotiations is the price range.
5. Any information should be exchanged as a part of a compromise and not  
merely given away.
6. Always talk less than necessary. Concentrate on facts and never tell other  
person about feelings (or your family and medical problems). Donâ€™t  
interrupt others, try  to understand what they really want and if they try to  
manipulate you. Also, resist giving in to interruptions until you have  
completed your thoughts â€“ â€œJust a moment, I havenâ€™t finishedâ€. Use   
Taleyran approximation â€“ if itâ€™s difficult for you to speak up, try to  
make just one diplomatic statement. If they press you, insist on moving this  
questions to experts. And use indirect language  such as â€œIt looks likeâ€  
or  â€œYou see situation from a very special angleâ€.
7. No negative emotions - strong emotions indicate weak nerves. Realize that  
there might be other issues motivating the other personâ€™s behavior and  
never take things personally.
8. Stop self-limiting behaviors, such as smiling too much, nodding too much,  
tilting your head or dropping your eyes in response to other personâ€™s gaze.  
Speak I normal conversational volume, donâ€™t scream and donâ€™t  whisper,  
either, as you wonâ€™t be taken seriously.
9. Take a problem-solving approach to conflict, and try to see the other  
person as your collaborator rather than your opposition. Youâ€™d better  
postpone negotiations than allow them to break down.
10. Fix all questions and donâ€™t be in a rush to answer any of them.
11. The slower you talk, the more confident you are.
12. Never ask straight questions.
13. Itâ€™s important to know what questions and when you have to ask. Start  
with an â€œinvitationâ€ question that does not need a definite answer but  
opens up the discussion, like: â€œNo matter what reporters say, weâ€™ll start  
negotiating for arms control.â€ Proceed with â€œintelligence gatheringâ€  
questions, like: â€œAre you going to abide by our last agreement on the  
withdrawal of military forces or do we have other options?â€ Go to  
â€œexpertiseâ€ questions, like: â€œItâ€™s 5000 soldiers, right? â€
  Thereâ€™s a difference between expertise and straight questions - straight  
question are like: â€œWill you sign the treaty?â€ and these have to be  
avoided because youâ€™ll get no straight answer right away. Finish with a  
closing question, like: â€œI think thatâ€™s what we intend to sign? Next time  
we can start from here.â€ Or you can press your partner: â€œLetâ€™s not lose  
this last opportunity, eh?â€
14. Explain your negative attitude in a smart way: give half the information  
and continue, depending on your partnerâ€™s reaction. If you canâ€™t accept  
his proposal, tell him that the experts may look into it again and come to  
agreement. If your partner is not a complete idiot heâ€™ll understand his  
proposal is unacceptable (because the experts have already done all they  
could). But if he is an idiot, heâ€™ll agree to â€œkillâ€ his proposals by  
passing them to the experts.
You start to lose momentum if you start to defend yourself.
15. Stop (postpone) negotiations the moment you start to lose or you could  
end up in a total failure and that could be used by opposition back home.
16. If you bring ideology - try to win. If you bring national interests, try  
to find compromise. Be flexible â€” thatâ€™s a sign of strength, not  
weakness.
17. Donâ€™t make aggressive statements for the media, no matter what.
18. Respect is half a victory, but you usually win when your partner is  
scared. Avoid open confrontation and respond to personal attacks with humor.
19. Watch the military experts -  they are always ready to â€œpushâ€ you. No  
arms agreement can win ratification without backing from Joint Chiefs,  
because Congress needs and trusts their expertise, and their disapproval is a  
strong tool against you in case you ignore their advice. So, think three  
times before you appoint Joint Chiefs.
20. Take negotiations on the trade deficit very seriously â€” they often take  
you nowhere and have zero results as your partner wants you to change your  
attitude to him completely as well as your international economic policy,  
while you expect the same favor from him. You can influence one partner but  
you canâ€™t very easily influence the international system.
21. After you come back home do some positive advertising through the media  
â€” in such a way you influence other presidents and future negotiations. If  
the negotiations resulted in a treaty, â€œsellâ€ it to the Senate for  
approval.
22. Negotiation no-nos:
- donâ€™t be confused if your partner threatens you â€” that means he needs  
your cooperation. Donâ€™t enter into negotiation right away with high  
demands.
- donâ€™t touch the toughest issues first. Donâ€™t assume â€” thatâ€™s a sign  
of weakness.
- donâ€™t hesitate to pause or take a break.
- never say â€œnoâ€ to your partnerâ€™s ideas â€” rather, pack them up in  
one â€œpackageâ€ with your proposals. The Reykjavik American-Soviet summit  
(1986) on intermediate-range nuclear missiles is a perfect example of a  
â€œpackageâ€. The U.S. President Reagan wanted to include human rights,  
Jewish immigration and Soviet intervention in Afghanistan in the talks. The  
USSR President Michail Gorbachev said â€œnoâ€, arms control only. Then  
Gorbachev attacked â€“ he wanted to put American Strategic Defense Initiative  
(â€œStar Warsâ€) in one â€œpackageâ€ with eliminating intermediate-range  
nuclear forces in Europe and reducing NATO tactical weapons and Warsaw Pact  
conventional forces. Reagan kissed him â€œgood-byeâ€.


5.4.2 Negotiations Procedure

I. Preparation

1. Write a plan.
2. Define your objectives.
3. Identify issues that are open to compromise and those that are not.
4. Conduct research for information to support your objectives and have  
information to undermine your partnerâ€™s position; think what information is  
available to your partner (State and Defense Departments will help you with  
that; not the CIA).
5. Find out how your partner negotiates with other leaders (he might have a  
â€œrabbit in a hatâ€ for you).
6. Consult with members of a previous negotiating team about his style,  
strong and weak points.
7. Check the current balance of power. Attention: if you start multilateral  
negotiation you have to know what are the conflicts or allegiances between  
other partners. If they are divided into groups, identify who has the power  
to make a decision on behalf of a group.
8. Use game theory if you are intending to cooperate. Game theory is a  
theoretical analysis of the decision-making process taken by two or more  
players who are in conflict. You must actually estimate any possible  
strategies of the players who have to make decisions without knowledge of  
what other players are planning. Each playerâ€™s strategy, once undertaken,  
will affect the others. Game theory is often illustrated by the â€œprisoners  
dilemmaâ€ paradigm. It supposes that two men have been arrested on a  
suspicion of committing a crime together and are being held in separate  
cells. There is not enough evidence to prosecute unless one confesses and  
implicates the other. Both of them know this but cannot talk to each other.  
The dilemma is that the best outcome, not being convicted, is only available  
if they each trust the other not to implicate him. If X decides to trust Y,  
but Y fears X may not be trustworthy, Y may confess to get a lesser sentence;  
X then gets a worse one. The best solution to this dilemma is for both to  
cooperate, to minimize the worst that can happen, rather than trying for the  
outcome that is maximum. This is called the minimax strategy and itâ€™s  
classified as being the most probable outcome.

II. Conducting negotiations

Never conduct negotiations before 10 a.m. or after 4 p.m.
First of all, you have to decide whether you want to speak first or to  
respond to your partnerâ€™s proposal. Thereâ€™s an advantage in letting your  
partner make the opening proposal as it might be much more beneficial for you  
than you suspect.

  Then:

a) put forward a proposal (with as little emotion as possible). You have to  
make your initial offer-demand high and compromise from that point onward.  
Your partner will understand perfectly well itâ€™s too much, so make your  
initial demand greater than you expect to receive, and offer less than you  
are expected to give. (For the same reason feel free to reject the first  
proposal received.) While talking further, leave yourself room for  
maneuvering, presenting your proposals, and donâ€™t try to pin down your  
partner to a fixed position too soon, because he needs room to maneuver, too.  
Make a final offer when the atmosphere is most cooperative.
b) respond to proposals in a smart way (again, no emotions).  Never take the  
first offer  - if you take it, your adversary  may feel there is something  
wrong with it or he didnâ€™t get the best deal.Capture any similarities on  
both sides. Donâ€™t hesitate to make conditional counter-offers: â€œIf you do  
this, weâ€™ll do that.â€ Cut the unexpected introduction of new issues and  
follow strictly a concise step-by-step agenda. Probe your partnerâ€™s  
attitudes: â€œWhat would you say if we both lower our demands?â€ but  
indicate that every concession you make is a major loss to you. Ask as many  
questions as you want â€” the more information you have, the more you control  
negotiation. To think over and re-design your strategy, ask for a break as  
many times as itâ€™s acceptable. Summarize your partnerâ€™s proposals.
c) move towards a bargain. You must know perfectly well the response to each  
of your points  before you open your mouth. If your aides canâ€™t help you,  
you have the wrong aides and you even might be a wrong president. Offer the  
lowest price first, as you may not need to go any further. Negotiate a  
â€œpackage,â€ donâ€™t concentrate on one demand and link other, smaller  
demands to it. While making a final offer look at the other party and check  
the body language (see below), your team members must confirm by body  
language that this is your final offer. Itâ€™s OK to press the partner by  
emphasizing the need to reach agreement, like: â€œWe know our nations are  
waiting to see the treaty signed.â€ (If your partner looks at his watch, it  
means he wants to end the talk.) If you see you  are approaching a dead end,  
ask your partner to talk off the record, in private, but if you talk in  
private, you have to keep your word no matter what.

   Sometimes negotiations (as in the Israel-Palestine case) run into serious  
problems and breakdowns. Strong diplomats never say â€œneverâ€ and never  
leave forever, and always are ready to come back and agree right away on new  
dates to continue talks, as though a breakdown is just one more pressure  
trick. The best thing to do is to re-establish communications as soon as  
possible and you have to do this through your team member who has good  
connections and influence with other party. Act fast, especially if the  
consequences of â€œno dealâ€ would be worse than the last deal that was on  
the table. If the situation is not improving, you have nothing else but to  
use a mediator. I do not recommend you to take responsibility as mediator or  
to use a mediator for your diplomatic needs. International experience shows  
that these old and â€œexperiencedâ€ people usually make the situation worse,  
like bringing in a lawyer â€” even if the situation looks better for the next  
couple of years. But if you have no choice and your partner, and your aides  
insist on using a mediator to resolve the situation you have to think it over  
â€¦ and agree.

  Mediation is the process in which deadlocked parties consider the  
suggestions of a third party, agreed upon in advance, but are not bound to  
accept the mediatorâ€™s recommendations. The mediator works as a referee  
between the negotiating parties and tries to find common ground among their  
agendas. Once some common ground is established, the mediator can begin to  
look for mutually acceptable ways out of the deadlock. A mediator between  
presidents has to be a president himself, very influential, and well informed  
on the situation to be able to make effective recommendations.
  He has to:
a) consider the situation from all angles
b) help both parties to understand each other better
c) help the parties to create new approaches
d) suggest a solution, give alternatives

But if the two sidesâ€™ demands are too far apart, no outside party can bring  
them together at all. ( Often a mediator has to make multiple trips between  
two parties, who do not talk directly, and itâ€™s called  shuttle diplomacy.  
Usually, two parties do not formally recognize each other, but still want to  
negotiate. The term became widespread following Henry Kissingerâ€™s term as  
National Security Advisor and then, as the United States Secretary of State  
(in 1973-1977), when he participated in shuttle diplomacy in the Middle East  
and China).

III. Closing negotiation

Thatâ€™s the most important part, a final mutual agreement or disagreement, a  
test for your foreign policy making strategy and tactics and personally for  
you, your power and your image. Any treaty you sign with foreign leaders, if  
it meets American interests, is not your personal success, but that of the  
nation. There are three options:
a) the agreement with all conditions is acceptable to both parties
b) the agreement is acceptable to one party only
c) the agreement is unacceptable for both parties

5.4.3 Diplomatic tricks

Tricks in diplomacy are usually used to distract your hard working team,  
shift the emphasis of the negotiation in order to shape the deal on terms of  
your adversary or manipulate your team into closing negotiation and accept  
terms you donâ€™t really like. And the tricks are:

â€œLeapâ€ - your adversary is losing and starts â€œjumpingâ€ from one point  
to another
â€œPileâ€ - your adversary â€œpiles upâ€ problems, tries to provoke a  
chaotic discussion or stop negotiations
â€œEmpty chairâ€ - a day or two before negotiations start your adversary  
informs you that heâ€™s not ready yet, trying to press you (or he wants to  
change location)
â€œDiplomatic illnessâ€ â€“ the practice of feigning  illness to avoid  
participation in negotiations and at the same time to avoid giving formal  
offense.
â€œDeafâ€ - your adversary keeps asking questions instead of answering yours
â€œProvocationâ€ â€” your adversary doubts your teamâ€™s professional level  
and your ability to negotiate
â€œBusy guyâ€ â€” your adversary breaks negotiation for an hour or two  
pretending he has to do some very important business (or that he got a very  
important call).
â€œMirrorâ€ - itâ€™s a very interesting â€œprogrammingâ€ trick. The  
technology is simple: you try to â€œmirrorâ€ your adversaryâ€™s style and  
behavior, adopt a similar posture, use his gestures, and follow the speed of  
his speech. First, he will like it subconsciously and will be more open to  
you. Second, youâ€™ll understand better his way of thinking.
â€œSandwichâ€ - pressure (often â€” military) â€” negotiations â€” pressure
â€œShowâ€ - using certain arguments your adversary appeals to your emotions
â€œCircleâ€ - a very sophisticated trick: your adversary tries to â€œpushâ€  
his proposal in different variants and finally comes back to his initial  
variant, trying to convince you thatâ€™s the best choice
â€œCarrot and stickâ€ - threat (blackmail) plus promises (money). The guy  
could  blackmail you also by demanding to set a deadline
â€œStudentâ€ - your adversary talks too much about the details, asking a lot  
of minor questions, trying to make you nervous and make mistakes
â€œDonkeyâ€ â€“ your adversary  declines the ofer to speak frst
â€œBallâ€ - encourage your adversary if heâ€™s looking for â€œglobal  
decisionsâ€ and heâ€™ll do a lot of minor favors
â€œRubberâ€ - delay, if you canâ€™t predict the result, and press your  
adversary by delaying the answer
â€œLast trainâ€ - you can press your adversary by an ultimatum right before  
negotiations are over, if he really is interested in some result. â€œSpiceâ€  
the  ultimatum with some important reasons and give your adversary a choice  
of variants.

You can also leak opposing demands to the media (be careful with this one. Do  
not betray diplomatic trust by talking about secret deals or demands that  
actually have been mentioned). You may also escalate your demands during  
negotiation and manipulate public opinion to line up behind your demands.

Diplomatic Double Talk
Statement                                                    Meaning

  We are disappointed.                                            We got  
nothing.
  Situation disturbs us.                                            Itâ€™s  
unacceptable no matter what.
  There are still differences between                          There are huge  
differences.
  our approaches to the problem .
  We canâ€™t accept this deal.                                     This means  
trouble.
  We reserve the right to use any means
to prevent further worsening of the situation.             This means war.
  Discussion helped us to understand each
other better.                                                           
Weâ€™ve wasted our time.
  We donâ€™t understand your attitude.                        Stop it  
immediately.
  Iâ€™m trying to understand your position.                    Understand me  
too, idiot!
  If Iâ€™ve understood you correctly, you donâ€™t agree.      Do you have any  
other option?
  We both will pay a very high price if we donâ€™t
  reach agreement.                                                  Yes,  
thatâ€™s a threat!



Body Language

Itâ€™s very good to have someone in your team who is attuned to, and can  
read, body language and help you to â€œcrackâ€ your opponent. Here are some  
signals (codes) and their meanings:

Partner is sitting upright with hands loosely crossed in front of him.         
  He is ready to accept proposal and finish negotiation.
Partner is smiling unnecessarily and is speaking fast.                         
     Heâ€™s nervous.
Partner looks and turns his lower body toward the exit.                        
     He wants to leave.
Open palm gesture.                                                             
                  Iâ€™m open and Iâ€™m telling the truth.
Heâ€™s leaning his body forward.                                               
                 Heâ€™s ready to assist you to get out of the situation.
Wide open eyes and a smile.                                                    
             He wants to be persuaded.
Raised eyebrows.                                                               
                   Negative surprise.
Chin rests on knuckles.                                                        
                 eady to listen (with interest).
Neutral facial expression.                                                     
                  Unformed opinion.
Gesturing a hand.                                                              
                    Adding emphasis.
Indirect gaze.                                                                 
                       Uncertainty.
Crossing arms or legs.                                                         
                  Disapproval.
Leaning back on a chair.                                                       
                 Boredom.
Leaning forward.                                                               
                     Agreement.
His teamâ€™s members exchange glances.                                         
        They are sure theyâ€™ve won.


  5.4.3  Protocol

1. Informal parties (family-style meals, buffet lunches and suppers,  
barbecues, picnics and tea parties) are the best place to meet different  
people â€“ thatâ€™s what a diplomat is being payd for.
2. The key to any event is to move the guests around so they can talk to  
different people (accomplish this by serving in several rooms, planning  
interactive games or music and dancing).
3. Donâ€™t talk much â€“ you have to meet as much people as you can. Watch  
your speech patterns â€“ do you interrupt people when they are speaking ? do  
you finish other peopleâ€™s statements ? if so, you are trying to monopolize   
the conversation. Important â€“ the best way  to handle recognizing someone  
without recalling his or her name is to mention your name again ( â€œGood  
evening, Iâ€™m John Stuart. We met  recently atâ€¦ Iâ€™m pleased to see you  
againâ€. Most likely, the person will reintroduce himself/herself). 4. Stand  
up when ambassador and his/her spouse enter the room, and allow  him/her to  
enter and exit a room first. When making introductions, introduce someone to  
the  more distinguished or older person.
5. Do not arrive starved.
6. Entertaining  widens your circle of friends and facilitates the informal  
exchange of information. Events can be hosted at your home, a local  
restaurant, or club. Representational events  need not be large, elaborate,  
or expensive, and a simple lunch or a backyard barbeque can be more effective  
than an elaborate dinner or reception.
7. At  formal events   both the guest of honor and other guests must know who  
has the place of honor. In the United States, the place of honor for a man is  
at the right  of the hostess; for a woman , it is  at the right of the host.  
However, in some countries, the place of honor is at the left of the  
host/hostess. The host  and hostess can sit at opposite ends or across from  
one another at the same table. They may also be seated at separate tables. If  
so, each chooses a co-host and co-hostess, creating two more seats of honor.  
Co-hosts and co-hostesses are usually ranking guests or colleagues from the  
U.S. Mission. After the guest of honor and the host(ess) or co-host(ess) are  
seated, the arrangement goes by rank, gender, and  nationality. As a general  
rule,couples sit  across the table from each other, not side-by-side.
8. If you donâ€™t wish to drink alcohol, still take some to have in your  
glass for toasts. (In most countries, a guest who is being toasted remains  
seated and does not drink to the toast. The honored guest makes a reply by  
standing and offering a toast to the host and hostess).If, for health or  
religious reasons, you absolutely cannot try even a small portion of a  
particular food or drink, it is acceptable to refuse with a short  
explanation. Hosts of diplomatic dinners often offer two toasts, one being a  
welcome toast to everyone in the room (this toast  is usually offered after  
the first course is served to all guests). Another toast to the guest of  
honor is offered at the beginning or at the end of the dessert course. When  
giving a toast , rise in  place and speak to the entire room. Raise your  
glass to eye level and look  toward the honored person and drink, making eye  
contact with the honored person. You should then nod and put your glass on  
the table and sit down. The person being toasted should never drink to  
himself/herself. A nod or smile of appreciation can suffice for a response,  
or the honored person can return the toast by rising afterwards and offering  
a formal response.

Dress.
Formal â€œBlack Tieâ€ or â€œWhite Tieâ€.  Male attire : black, hip-length  
coat without tails and with silk or satin lapels (a white dinner coat may be  
worn in hot weather and the tropics); low-cut black  waistcoat or cummerbund  
may be worn with a single-breasted coat; black  trousers;  white starched or  
pleated shirt or a soft evening shirt with studs instead of buttons; wing,,  
turn-down, or attached collar and black bow tie; blsck shoes and socks; hats  
and gloves are optional but not worn or carried indoors. Female attire:  
knee-length  cocktail dress; floor-length ball gown; long skirt with top;  
high-heeled shoes or dressy flats; above-elbow gloves  and short gloves may  
be worn with a long-sleeved gown. If worn, gloves need not be removed for a  
receiving line or dancing, but are removed prior to eating or drinking.
Semi-formal/Informal.  Male attire: dark suit; tie  or bow tie; dark shoes  
and socks. Female attire: short cocktail dress; gloves are optional;  
high-heeled shoes or dressy flats.
Casual. Male attire: business suit (light or dark) or  sports jacket and  
pants; tie or bow tie; dress shoes or loafers. Female attire: business suit  
or daytime dress; pumps or flats; head coverings may be considered a  
requirement at some events. Wide-brim hats may also provide welcome and  
necessary protection from the sun.

5.4.3 Tips on cultural differences

United States of America
  Americansâ€™ lives revolve around work. Keep your distance when conversing  
with them, donâ€™t stare â€“ itâ€™s a very rude behavior. They donâ€™t  
hesitate to say â€œnoâ€ , are opportunistic and willing to take chances,  
future oriented and consistent. Say â€œpleaseâ€ and â€œthank youâ€ as often  
as you can. They are often uncomfortable with silence. Always be on time and  
meet deadlines. Meetings are generally informal and relaxed in manner, but  
serious in content (participation is expected â€“ a quiet person may be  
viewed as not prepared). They appreciate and are impressed by numbers  
(statistics). They  often begin negotiations with unacceptable conditions.   
Persistence  is another characteristic â€“ there is a prevailing belief that  
there is always a solution. In a business setting the person extending the  
invitation to a meal pays for it. Most government employees are not allowed  
to accept gifts. Cash gifts are never  appropriate.

Russia.
Russians are transactional and do not need to establish long-standing  
personal relationships. Most of them donâ€™t trust people who are â€œall  
businessâ€. Typical Russian schedules are constantly changing and everything  
takes longer than expected. Expect some period of socializing before business  
is discussed. Russians expect long and detailed presentations that include a  
history of the subject and a review of existing precedents.
  Meetings and negotiations are slow â€“ Russians do not like being rushed.  
Hierarchy is important â€“ they respect age, rank and position. Russians see  
negotiations as win-lose and donâ€™t believe in win-win scenarios. They view  
compromise as weakness and will continue negotiating until you offer  
concessions. Russians may lose their temper, walk out of the meeting or  
threaten to terminate it in san attempt to coerce your position. They often  
use time as tactic, especially if they know you have a deadline. Nothing is  
final until te document is signed, and even then they try to modify it to  
suit their purposes

  United Kingdom.
England is a kingdom within the United Kingdom, and ignoring the subdivisions  
of the United Kingdom and referring to the whole as â€œEnglandâ€  is  
insulting to the inhabitants of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.  Look  
reserved, but usually they are friendly and helpful to foreigners, especially  
women. Donâ€™t stare and stand too close. It doesnâ€™t matter what country  
you are from â€“ try to be a  100% gentleman. Men should open doors  for  
women and stand when a woman enters a room. Donâ€™t insult the Royal Family  
or show great interest in their private lives. Donâ€™t ask personal questions  
and donâ€™t talk about money. Donâ€™t shout or be loud in public places,  
except Hyde Park.

Ireland.
The Republic of Ireland has been independent of the United Kingdom since 1922  
â€“ keep that in mind. To Irish people, you are Irish if you grew up or were  
born in Ireland.  In Northern Ireland be particularly aware that some people  
identify as â€œIrishâ€ while others identify as â€œBritishâ€. Asking people  
whether they are Catholic or Protestant is insensitive. Very famous for   
drinking strong alcohol (whisky),  but they  respect reserved behavior. Do  
not stare at people â€“ that means you want to fight (for a man), or you want  
to kiss (for a woman). Courteous, quick-witted and will go out of their way  
to welcome visitors to their country. Donâ€™t rush the Irish. Creative and  
calm in crisis, but poor in long-range planning. Strong negotiators and  want  
to do things their way.

Hungary.
Hungarians tend to take criticism very badly, and it may be interpreted as  
expression of discontent. Avoid discussing the outcomes of  World wars I and  
II and socialist era â€“ there is no agreement of those times. Royalty and  
aristocracy is considered to be a thing of the past and â€œundemocraticâ€.  
Smoking is very common in low-class circles; in upper classes it is not, and  
even can be shame to light a cigarette.

Netherland.
Dutch are proud of their culture, history and involvement in international  
affairs. Reserved, value privacy and are extremely direct in their  
communication â€“ they do not use hyperbole, and likewise they expect to be  
told â€œyesâ€ or â€œnoâ€ in clear words. Being late may mark you as  
untrustworthy and someone who may not meet other deadlines . Take punctuality  
very seriously. They are  extremely adept at dealing with foreigners (the  
most successful traders in Europe; they are direct, giving straight â€œyesâ€  
or â€œnoâ€. Dutch can be tough detail -oriented negotiators and donâ€™t like  
to take risks. They prefer to get down to business quickly and engage in  
relatively little small talk.   Do not deviate from agenda. The important  
thing is to demonstrate your relationship would be beneficial for both sides.  
Once decisions are made, it will not be changed. implementation is fast  and  
efficient. Commitments are taken seriously and are honored. It is considered  
to leave the table during dinner (even to go to the bathroom). Do not call  
the Netherlands â€œHollandâ€. Holland is a region within the Netherlands. Do  
not discuss money or prices or ask personal questions.

Norway.
  Norwegians are excellent time managers and direct communicators ;  
conservative and deliberate speakers who do not appreciate being rushed. They  
are scrupulous about honesty in communication, often to the point of pointing  
out the negatives in their own proposals in greater detail than the  
positives. Their body language is subtle.. Appearing  overly friendly may be  
viewed as weakness. Maintaining eye contact while speaking is interpreted as  
sincerity. Meetings are informal, but they prefer to get to discussion  
quickly. Decisions are consensus driven.

Denmark.
Danes are very punctual. Shake hands with everyone upon arriving and leaving,  
handshakes should be very firm and rather short; always shake hands with  
women first. Negotiate without deviations.  Use facts, figures and charts to  
back up statements and conclusions. Danes prefer to get down to business  
quickly; communication is  frank and direct. Decisions are made after  
consulting with everyone involved.

Canada.
Canada has been divided into two distinct societies â€“ French-speaking  
(Quebec) and English-speaking. Canadians are more reserved than Americans.  
Canada is a country where negotiations often begin with informal meetings.  
Canadians can be agreeable and they are often gracious hosts though thy  
donâ€™t have difficulty in saying â€œnoâ€. Decisions are not rushed and a  
certain amount of caution is advised.Punctuality is demanded. When in Quebec,  
learn a little French â€“ people greatly appreciate that. Do not compare  
Canada with the United States. Do not take sides in debates about contentious  
national issues (status of Quebec, the place of French and English languages  
in Canada). Donâ€™t eat while waling or standing on the street in Quebec.

Germany.
The Third Reich is a sensitive subject; Nazi symbolism and gestures are  
illegal in Germany, as is denying the         Holocaust. It is impolite to  
ask how someone will vote in a specific matter. Socially, Germans lean toward  
    conservatism and conformism. Germans are uneasy with uncertainty,  
ambiguity and unquantifiable risk and put heavy emphasis on careful planning,  
consideration and consultation. Fear of the unknown makes Germans very  
apprehensive about risk and they analyze proposals thoroughly. Decisions have  
nothing to do with personal relationships between politicians and will be  
made on facts that demonstrate a sound opportunity with minimal risk. Do not  
rush proceedings or apply pressure. They rarely change their decisions.  
Appear reserved and unfriendly until you get to know them better. Never put  
your hands in your pockets when       talking to someone. Donâ€™t point your  
index figure to your own head â€“ this is an insult. They are hard  
bargainers. Decision making is slow with thorough analysis of all facts. Do  
not call a German at home unless it is an emergency. Donâ€™t be offended if   
someone corrects your behavior â€“ policing each other is seen as a social  
duty. Donâ€™t chew gum in public.

France.
French  cherish their culture, history, language and food.  Not finishing  
oneâ€™s food implies that the taste or quality was poor and it could not be  
eaten or the host does not correctly serve the quantity of food one needs.   
Not finishing the wine is considered very rude as it indicates that the host  
has served a wine of poor quality. Bringing a bottle of wine to someoneâ€™s  
house for dinner suggests that the hosts wonâ€™t be providing wine of  
adequate quality. Donâ€™t sit with legs spread apart; donâ€™t use toothpicks,  
nail clippers, and combs in public; keep your hands out of your pockets. Many  
of them speak and understand English, but prefer not to use it. Donâ€™t  
discuss personal life with business people. French communication style is  
direct, questioning and probing. The French get down to business quickly, but  
make decisions slowly (they are leaders in economic planning). Negotiations  
can become passionate; argumentation  is not meant to be confrontational but  
rather a means to analyze deeply.Give a good quality gift or none at all.  
Donâ€™t   ask personal questions related to occupation, family or children  
unless you have a well-established friendship. Try to demonstrate some  
knowledge of history, politics and French culture. The French do not tell or  
like to hear jokes, instead they prefer intelligent and satirical  real life  
stories. â€œOKâ€ gesture means â€œzeroâ€ or â€œworthlessâ€ in France.

Japan.
Nodding is very important.  In greeting or thanking another person, it may   
be insulting if the person of lower status does not bow appropriately lower  
(foreigners are never expected to bow, they often do it incorrectly and look  
stupid).Silence is a natural and expected form of non-verbal communication.  
Sit erect . Any degree of knowledge of Japanese culture  is greatly  
appreciated. Avoid saying â€œnoâ€™. Drinking is a group activity; never say  
â€œnoâ€™ when offered a drink. At dinner wait for the toast before you drink.  
â€œMaybeâ€  means â€œnoâ€. A smile or laughter from a Japanese may mean  
they are feeling nervous or uncomfortable, and not necessarily happy.  
Business cards should be given and accepted with both hands. It is expected  
that the cards will immediately be inspected and admired, then placed on the  
table in front of the receiver for the duration of the meeting. After the  
meeting, cards should be stored respectfully and should never be placed in  
back pocket. Itâ€™s a faux pas to accept a gift when it is first offered and  
the giver is expected to offer it multiple times (gifts are not generally  
opened in the giverâ€™s presence). At a meeting  you will always deal with a  
team opposed to an individual. The lesser ranking attendees will usually do  
the talking or negotiating. Japanese are very detail oriented â€“ expect lots  
of questions and questions repeated in different ways. Do not disagree  
openly. Be sure to hold off concessions till the end of proceedings, if made  
early your integrity will be questioned. Silence is considered  a virtue, so  
never interrupt or break the silence.

Kuwait
You must be patient since impatience is viewed as criticism of the culture.  
Kuwaitis respect education, so carefully mention if you have an advanced  
degree, especially if itâ€™s from a prestigious university. Meetings may be  
interrupted if they interfere with prayer times. Expect frequent  
interruptions. Kuwaitis are event rather  than time-driven (the event of  
getting together is more important). Decisions are reached slowly. Repeating  
your main points indicates you are telling the truth. Problems may be  
discussed outside the meeting in a one-on-one  format rather than in the  
group. Proposals should be kept simple.

China.
The Chinese are not keen on physical contact â€“ especially when doing  
business. The only circumstance in which it may take place is when a host is  
guiding a host, and even then contact will only be made by holding a cuff or  
sleeve. Be sure not to slap, pat or put your arm around someoneâ€™s  
shoulders. Be prepared for long meetings  and lengthy negotiations. There  
maybe periods of silence at a meeting; do not interrupt these. A contract is  
considered a draft subject to change. Punctuality is vital and late arrivals  
are seen as insult. Above all, be patient and never show anger. You must be  
willing to show compromise. Chinese negotiators are tough and  may try  to  
make you feel guilty about setbacks. Two Chinese negotiating tricks designed  
to make you agree  to concessions are staged tantrums and a feigned sense of  
urgency. If the Chinese side no longer wishes to pursue the deal, they may  
not tell you; to save their own face, they may become increasingly inflexible  
  and hard-nosed, forcing you to break  negotiations â€“ in this way, they may  
blame for the failure. Dining is used  to probe positions without any formal  
commitment. Do not refuse a drink. Forcing the  Chinese to say â€œnoâ€™ will  
quickly end relationship. Hong Kong.  Hong Kong is 98 %  Chinese (Cantonese),  
but the people view themselves as different from other Chinese. People there  
are highly educated, very motivated and westernized. Punctuality is  
respected. Negotiations may be slow  and detailed., but very efficient..  
Banking contacts are very important. Take time to build relationships.   
People are very superstitious â€“ donâ€™t mention failure, poverty or death.   
Speaking even a few words of Chinese is greatly appreciated.

Hong Kong
Negotiations may be long, protracted affairs as details are slowly poured and  
analysed.

Singapore.
Conglomeration of Chinese (76%), Malay (15%) and Indian (6%) cultures.  
Singaporeans tend to get right down to business in meetings and make  
decisions quickly. Singapore has  strict  regulations  which carry stiff  
fines, possible jail sentences or even death. You should never do the  
following: jaywalk, smoke in public or in air-conditioned buildings (except  
country clubs), enter the country with drugs, litter, or import, manufacture,  
sell or use chewing gum. Avoid discussing religion or politics.

Taiwan.
The people of Taiwan value hard work, patience, friendliness, but they are  
hard bargainers â€“ be patient.

  Korea.
The number 4 is considered unlucky, so gifts should not be given in multiples  
of  four. Giving 7 of an item is considered lucky.

Thailand.
Touching someone on the foot is a taboo; touching someoneâ€™s head requires  
immediate apology. Kissing in the streets and any public display of affection  
are considered rude, though Thais are relatively liberal-minded in matters of  
sexuality. Thais hold  their king in very high regard. Currency, postage  
stamps, magazine covers and other
items with the kingâ€™s image are never tossed to the ground, and even  
licking the back of a postage stamp iconsidere disrespectful.

Spain.
Be careful discussing independent movements within Spain, religion and  
political issues surrounding fascism and nationalism. Spain is among the most  
liberal countries in Europe. The way you present yourself is of critical  
importance; trust and personal relationships too. Avoid confrontation â€“  
Spaniards do not like to publicly admit that they are incorrect. You may be  
interrupted while you are speaking, this is not an insult, it means the  
person is interested in what you are saying. Spaniards do not like to â€œlose  
faceâ€, so they will not  necessarily  say they do not understand something,  
though they are very thorough. They expect both sides to strictly adhere to  
the terms of a treaty.

Austria.
First impressions are important and you will be judged on your clothing and  
demeanour. Punctuality is taken extremely seriously and itâ€™s extremely rude  
. Austrians are meticulous about details. Avoid confrontational behavior.  
Meetings adhere to strict agendas. Communication is formal and follows strict  
rules of protocol; no personal relationship, no small talks needed. Austrians  
are suspicious of hyperbole, promises that sound too good to be true, or  
displays of emotion. Expect a great deal of written communication.

Italy.
Cultural achievements is Italyâ€™s greatest source of pride. The family is  
the most important affiliation in Italy. Maintain eye contact while talking,  
otherwise Italians might think you are hiding something. Establish personal  
(profitable)  relationships with Italians.  Italians prefer to do business   
with someone they know; they respect power and age. Negotiations usually take  
  time and patience; donâ€™t rush Italians â€“ they may  misinterpret this as  
a weakness. At the beginning concentrate  on some small talk (Italian  
culture, food, wine and soccer. Be sure to offer as much information as  
possible for them to take away and analyze. It is common to be interrupted  
while speaking or for several people to speak simultaneously. Although  
written agendas are frequently provided , they may not be followed â€“ they  
serve as a jumping off point .Decisions  are often made and agreed to   
privately  before meetings, which are meant for a free flow of ideas and let  
everyone have their say. Decisions that are made and agreed to may never be  
implemented, and they are often based on how you are viewed. Hard drinking is  
not appreciated â€“ even mild intoxication is considered ill-mannered.  
Italians enjoy a lot of good humor. Refrain from asking personal questions.  
Whether coming to sightsee or to pray, it is improper to enter a church with  
short pants or sleeveless shirts â€“ violators may be denied admission or  
asked to leave. When visiting  a home in Italy it is impolite to remove  
oneâ€™s coat until asked. Also, it is customary to ask to enter the home with  
â€œpermessoâ€. Complimenting on food and asking for more is regarded as a  
very polite thing to do and every host is expected to prepare food in  
abundance. It is also customary, since family lunches last until late in the  
afternoon, to ask guests to stay for dinner and help finish all the food. At  
a restaurant itâ€™s impolite  to ask for a check immediately after the meal  
â€“ people expect time to relax and have coffee and after-dinner liquer.

Saudi Arabia
Since Saudis will judge you on appearances, dress and present yourself well.  
You should arrive at meetings on time, though itâ€™s an accepted custom to  
keep foreigners waiting. Meetings start after prolonged inquiries about  
health, family, etc.; never  inquire about a Saudiâ€™s wife. Decisions are  
made slowly and are easily overturned;, the society is extremely bureaucratic  
and most decisions require several layers of approval. Saudis are tough  
negotiators, but they avoid to bring bad news. Repeat your main points since  
it will be interpreted as  meaning you are telling the truth. When discussing  
price, Saudis make an initial offer which is extremely low when they are  
buying; if they sell, initial offer will be extremely high. You may need to  
compromise  on  a point if someoneâ€™s dignity is at stake.

Egypt
Expect to be offered coffee or tea whenever you meet someone, declining the  
offer is viewed as rejecting the person. Egyptians judge people on  
appearances, so you must wear good quality conservative clothes. Tough  
negotiators. They believe direct eye contact is a sign of honesty, so be  
ready for disconcertingly intense stares.  Meetings are generally not private  
unless there is a need to discuss matters confidentially. Decisions are  
reached after great deliberation, the society is extremely bureaucratic. It  
is advisable to include older people with impressive titles in your team  
since Egyptians respect age and experience. Expect a fair amount of haggling  
â€“ Egyptians seldom see an offer as final. They donâ€™t like confrontation  
and abhor saying â€œnoâ€; if they do not respond, it means â€œnoâ€.

South Africa
South Africans are transactional and do not need to establish long-standing  
personal relationships before conducting business. They avoid confrontation  
and often use metaphors and sports analogies to demonstrate a point. Personal  
relationships are important. Do not interrupt South African while they are  
speaking; they strive for consensus and win-win situations. Start  
negotiations with realistic figure â€“ they do not like haggling over the  
price.

Israel.
Kosher meal only. No pork. Meat and dairy products cannot be combined. Kosher  
meat must be slaughtered by a kosher butcher and prepared in a kosher  
kitchen. Most fish, except  , is considered kosher. Fresh fruit salad or  
non-cooked vegetarian meals are suitable alternatives since all fruits and  
vegetables are considered kosher. Kosher foods are marked at food  
wholesalers, often with a        circled â€œUâ€ or â€œKâ€. Wines should be  
from Israel or a kosher vineyard

Switzerland.
Proud of their neutrality, have a deep-rooted respect for savings and wealth.  
Take punctuality very seriously. They are fair bargainers but not hagglers.

Sweden.
Sweden is a predominantly middle class country with one of the most  
far-reaching social security systems in the world. Patriotism is important to  
Swedes who are very proud of their nation, towns and regions. Take  
punctuality very seriously. Swedes are factual, practical, precise, reserved  
and get to the point quickly. Be clear and concise in detailing what you  
expect from them. They are tough and slow negotiators. Knowledge about  
Swedenâ€™s economy , high standard of living, sports, architecture, history  
is appreciated. Do not criticize Swedish lifestyle, sexual habits, suicide  
rate, prices.

Australia.
Generally they dislike aggressive negotiating. It is important to be modest.  
Australians would emphasize more on profit than any other objective, so  
itâ€™s important to emphasize the importance of economic benefits. Have no  
difficulty is saying â€œnoâ€. It may be impolite to remark on Australiaâ€™s  
history as penal colony. They enjoy easy-going lifestyle and are generally  
friendly and relaxed. The â€œVâ€ sign is considered to be very vulgar.  
Negotiations proceed quickly, bargaining is not customary. They will often  
negotiate major  issues without over-emphasis on details. Barbecues are  
popular. Australians respect people with strong opinions, even if they  
donâ€™t agree. Avoid discussions about the treatment of the aboriginal  
people. Donâ€™t comment on anyoneâ€™s accent â€“ accents often distinguish  
social class.

Indonesia.
  They value loyalty to the family and friends above all else. Indonesia as a  
whole is viewed by its people as an extended family with the president,  
schoolmasters and leaders of business enterprises referred to as  
â€œfathersâ€ by the public. They love to bargain, and giving concessions too  
quickly will be viewed as naivete. Clarification and feedback are a necessity  
throughout negotiations. Avoid disagreement and arguments with Indonesians,  
do not apply pressure or be confrontational. Civil servants are respected â€“  
be very respectful to government workers. Most Indonesians are Muslims and  
consume no liquor or pork.

Belgium.
  Hard work, appreciation for culture, strong family systems. Belgians are  
known for compromise, negotiation and common sense.  Punctuality is vital,  
lateness is considered a bad form. Begians like a meeting to be well  
structured and focused. Try to show the best sides of your personality during  
negotiations.Accept any drink offered by your host and donâ€™t ask for a  
drink not offered. Belgians are thrifty and do not appreciate waste â€“  
finish all the food on your plate. Avoid discussing personal matters or  
linguistic divisions with them. Do not flaunt wealth. Do not as questions  
about private lives.

Argentina.
  85% of them hail from Italy, Spain, Austria, France, Germany, Great Britain,  
Portugal, so they tend to identify with Europeans. It has been said that  
Argentines are a nation of Italians who speak Spanish and think theyâ€™re  
British living in Paris. The â€œOKâ€ and â€œthumbs upâ€ gestures are  
considered vulgar. Personal relationships are important and must be developed  
before business is done. They often need several meetings and extensive  
discussion to make deals. During business meetings, sustain a relaxed manner.  
Argentines are tough negotiators, and concessions will not come quickly or  
easily. Donâ€™t compare Argentina  with the United States or with Brazil,  
which is considered rival. Avoid  talking about Great Britain or the Falkland  
Islands  - these are sensitive subjects to many Argentines. Be careful when  
discussing the Peron years â€“ people either love or hate the Perons.  
Although Argentines may be very vocal about politics and religion, avoid  
adding your opinions to these discussions. They do not like publicly  
admitting they are incorrect. If a favor is done for you, you will eventually  
be called upon to re-pay it. They prefer face-to-face meetings rather than by  
telephone or in writing, which are seen as impersonal. Once a relationship  
has been developed, their loyalty will be to you rather than to the  
government you represent. Start negotiations with small talk. Be alert for  
nuances and hidden meanings; itâ€™s a good idea to repeat details as you  
understand them to confirm that your colleagues are in agreement. Decisions  
are not reached at meetings, which are for discussion and to exchange ideas.  
Argentines have a difficult time disagreeing.

Mexico.
  Strong  sense of fatalism. Social stratifications are well-defined.  
Negotiations move slowly â€“ be patient. Take some time for consideration  
before agreeing to anything â€“ quick decisiveness  is often seen hasty.  
Personalize everything: explain  how all proposals will benefit Mexico, and,  
most important, Mexican personally. The status of your hotel accommodations,  
the quality of your clothes and watch, and whether or not you arrive in a  
chauffeured limousine will be critically  appraised by Mexican counterparts.  
Be persistent, donâ€™t give up if your meetings are postponed or canceled; if  
you give up, Mexicans might assume that you werenâ€™t serious in the first  
place. Any attempt  to speak Spanish is appreciated; Mexicans are very proud  
of their independence and have a strong sense of national identity and pride.  
Never compare the way things are done in Mexico with the way  they are done  
in USA.

  India.
Industrial leader with millions of poor people.  Indians prefer to do  
business with those they know and prefer to have long-standing personal  
relationships prior to negotiations.  They are impressed with punctuality.  
Indians are very conscious about protocol. They are non-confrontational, but  
decision making is slow. It is considered rude to start negotiations right  
away â€“ ask about your counterpartâ€™s family, interests, hobbies. Making a  
deal is not easy, do be polite, but persistent. â€œI will tryâ€ means  
â€œnoâ€. Never show anger â€“ if you lose your temper , you â€œlose faceâ€  
and prove you are unworthy of trust. Delays are to be expected, especially  
dealing with the government. Indians expect concessions and itâ€™s acceptable  
to expect concessions in return for those you made. Never appear overly  
legalistic during negotiations, in general, Indians do not trust the legal  
system. India is a male-dominated society. Many people avoid shaking hands  
with individuals of the opposite gender â€“ you have to greet them verbally  
and then wait if the other person extends the hand first. Itâ€™s  
inappropriate for a man to make any comment about a womanâ€™s appearance.  
Asking a person to a social event (restaurant) means that the person offering  
the invite will be paying for everything. Indians donâ€™t eat beef and many  
of them donâ€™t drink alcohol.

Czech Republic.
  When visiting a house you are requested to unshoe. Refusing offered  
handshake is a very impolite personal insult; handshake must be strong a  and  
without gestures or movements. If you are a man traveling with a woman, you  
must enter a restaurant first and leave last. It is impolite to talk about a  
salary during a conversation, even with your close friends.



                                                      PART II.  TOP ESPIONAGE  
MANAGEMENT.

  Chapter 1.     Be the best.

      1.1 Components of  intelligence

1. Biographic intelligence. Biographic intelligence is the study of   
politicians, military, scientists and other persons of actual or potential  
importance through knowledge of their personalities and backgrounds,  
including  educational and occupational history, individual accomplishments,  
idiosyncrasies and habits, position and power to make decisions.
2. Economic intelligence. Economic intelligence studies the economic  
strengths and weaknesses of a country, including source of economic  
capability (any means a country has to sustain its economy), manufacturing  
(manufacturing processes, facilities, logistics), vulnerabilities (the degree  
to which a countryâ€™s military would be hampered by the loss of materials or  
facilities), economic warfare (information on the diplomatic, financial and   
special  steps a country may take to induce neutral countries to cease  
trading with its enemies).
3. Sociological intelligence. Sociological intelligence deals with people,  
customs, behaviors and institutions, including population (rates of increase,  
decrease or migrations), social characteristics (customs, values and  
beliefs), manpower (divisions and distribution within the workforce), health,  
education, welfare and public information (information services within the  
country).
4  Transportation and telecommunications  intelligence. Transportation and  
telecommunications intelligence studies the role of transportation and  
telecommunications systems during military emergencies and during peacetime,  
including strategic railways, highways, airports, seaports, network of  
navigatable rivers and canals, main phone and Internet services providers.
5  Military geographic intelligence. Military geographic intelligence studies  
all geographic factors, including  terrain, climate, natural resources,  
boundaries and population distribution.
6. Armed forces intelligence. Armed forces intelligence is the integrated  
study of the land, sea and air forces, including  strategy (military  
alternatives in terms of position, terrain, economics, politics ), tactics (  
military deployments and operations doctrine), location, organizations,  
procurement, storage, distribution, weapons and training of the armed forces.
7. Political intelligence. Political intelligence valuates all political  
aspects which may affect military operations, including government structure,  
national policies, political dynamics (government views and reaction to  
events), propaganda (information and disinformation programs), special  
services, subversion (subversive acts sponsored by the government).
8. Scientific and technical intelligence. Scientific and technical  
intelligence studies the countryâ€™s potential and capability to support  
objectives through development of  weapons and weapons systems, missile and  
space programs, nuclear energy and weapons technology, basic applied  
sciences.

  1.2  Intelligence cycle.

  Equally important to the components of strategic intelligence is an  
awareness of the strategic intelligence cycle and the debrieferâ€™s role  
within that cycle. The first step is the identification of the intelligence  
gaps. Then analysts translate these gaps into intelligence requirements and  
strategic debriefer fulfills those requirements. Next step involves  
preparation of an intelligence report. The last step is the preparation of an  
intelligence report evaluation by the originator of the requirement. These  
evaluations measure the quality of the information as well as the quality of  
the report writing.


1.3 " Illegal " spies

When I talk about â€œthe best,â€ I mean the highest intelligence level â€”  
illegal spies, intelligence operatives who are secretly deployed abroad and  
covertly operate there under assumed names and well-documented cover stories,  
masquerading as native citizens. The process of training and â€œinstallingâ€  
such officer is rather complex and includes:

a) Special training. Foreign language, general, political and special  
(espionage and counter-espionage) knowledge of the target country; personal  
cover story â€” new biography, special technical devices, recruitment  
methods). Up to three years.
b) Illegal probation period abroad. A trip abroad through intermediate  
countries with numerous changes of passports and cover stories, jobs,  
personal connections. Then he gets to the target country, stays there for  
another 1-2 years and goes back to his country for additional training and  
correction of cover story â€” actually, itâ€™s his first combat assignment.  
The most important part of this assignment is to check the reliability of the  
cover story and documents; the cover story has to be reinforced with new and  
old true facts, like short-term studies at universities or professional  
training courses).
c) Intermediate legislation. On his way back the officer could stay in an  
intermediate country for another 1-2 years, make contacts with business,  
scientists, government employees, celebrities.
d) Basic legislation. Officer comes to the target country, obtains genuine  
documents, gets a job which allows him to travel and talk to many people,  
recruit informants thus creating an illegal station.

The illegal is usually supplied with a variety of cover documents to make him  
â€œinvisibleâ€ for counter-intelligence â€” some are used only to cross the  
borders on the way to a target country, others â€” to live there, other  
documents â€” only for travel to â€œthird countriesâ€ to meet with officers  
of legal or illegal stations or to be used in case of urgent recall to home  
country (in that case the illegal is supposed to transit at least two or  
three countries). His further activity depends on how professional  
counter-espionage service is working in the country.
He could fail in his mission also because of:
- poor training and low quality documents
- neglecting security rules.
- one mistake in pronunciation can give you away
- treason (traitor-informant or a â€œmoleâ€ inside his own service)
- low personal security level (while working with sources)

1.4  "Golden" rules

1. No mercy, no ideology, no emotions.
2. Intuition is nothing but the ability to watch and analyze.
3. No evidence is evidence in itself.
4. Distrust is a mother of security.
5. Never look as if you are sizing up the person â€” thatâ€™s a sign that  
gives away cops and spies.
6. Donâ€™t start first if you donâ€™t know the rules.
7. The way you act is the way you think â€” behavior is a system of codes  
(information) which could be calculated by the enemy. Watch your face â€”  
thatâ€™s a shop window.
8. Think fast, talk slow.
9. Avoid self-programming and never think bad about yourself.
10. Donâ€™t smoke, drink or take drugs if itâ€™s not necessary; spare your  
stomach from very hot or cold food or drinks; avoid too much noise and light.
11. Donâ€™t be shy to lie â€” the more you lie the more people respect you.
12. Let people talk out and â€œempty their brainsâ€ â€” then load your  
information.
13. People never change â€” everybody wants to get pleasure and avoid pain.
14. â€œHe knew too muchâ€ means â€œHe talked too much.â€
15. Never ask extra questions â€” wait. Wait and the object will get used to  
you and open himself â€” nobody can stay tense for long.
16. Lonely people live longer in espionage business.
17. â€œNo exitâ€ situation is the one you donâ€™t like or donâ€™t  
understand.
18. Avoid:
- personal enemies (they fix negative information on you)
- silent types (they notice and think too much)
- other professionals (theyâ€™ll blow your identity)
- extra stress (it damages your heart and blood vessels and that kills your  
brain and your ability to think )
- talking too  much

1.5  CIA or KGB ?

CIA                                                                            
                       KGB

Cuts corners to save money on intelligence.                                    
  No limitations.
Poor professional training and knowledge.                                      
   KGB was famous for brilliant analysts.
â€œCountry inside country.â€                                                  
                Mostly patriots.
Results first. Use people and get rid of them.                                 
    Security first. Respect your sources.
Promise and forget.                                                            
             Promise and do it.
Saw Russia as #1 enemy.                                                        
       Saw US as #1 enemy.
  Money first.                                                                  
                 Job first.
  Alcohol.                                                                      
                  Alcohol.
â€œWe are the best.â€                                                         
                  "No, we are the best".
Unreformable.                                                                  
                A fluid structure.

KGB

Since 1991, the KGB has been re-named the SVR (Russian Intelligence Service),  
but it has basically the same structure.

Structure
KGB Chief and his Deputies
Directorates:
â€œRâ€ â€” operational planning and analysis
â€œKâ€: external counter-intelligence
â€œSâ€: illegal spies
â€œTâ€: scientific and technical intelligence, acquisition of Western  
strategic, military and industrial technology.
â€œRIâ€: intelligence assessment
â€œRTâ€: operations within the Soviet Union
â€œOTâ€: operational technical support
â€œIâ€: computer services
â€œPâ€: political intelligence
Geographic Departments.
Services:
â€œAâ€: disinformation, covert actions to influence foreign nations and  
governments
â€œRâ€: radio communications with overseas stations
â€œAâ€ of the 8th Chief Directorate (cryptographic services)
KGB station abroad:
KGB Resident (Chief of the station).
â€œPRâ€ line: political, economic and military strategic intelligence
â€œKRâ€ line: counterintelligence and security
â€œXâ€ line: scientific and technological intelligence
â€œNâ€ line: illegal spiesâ€™ support
â€œEMâ€ line: Ã©migrÃ©s
â€œSKâ€ line: Soviet colony in the country
Embassy security officer
â€œOTâ€ officer â€” operational technical support
â€œImpulseâ€ station â€” monitoring of radio communications of surveillance  
teams
â€œRPâ€ line officer: SIGINT
â€œIâ€ line officer â€” computers
Cipher clerk
Radio operator

KGB inside humor:
  â€œRecruit a woman if you canâ€™t recruit anybody else.â€
â€œYou can lose nothing and you can find nothing inside the KGB.â€
â€œNever make friends inside the KGB.â€
â€œBefore lunch we fight hunger, after lunch we fight sleep.â€
â€œThe law stops here.â€

  KGB slang sounds funny too: â€œmusicâ€ (listening device), â€œBibleâ€(a  
book with listening device hidden inside), â€œgodsâ€(officers who worked  
with informants inside churches and sects), â€œsailorâ€ (informant â€”  
informantâ€™s KGB registration card was crossed by a red stripe), â€œcrustâ€  
(KGB ID), â€œTo take a skin offâ€ (to take information from the informant),  
â€œto spin informationâ€ (to â€œenrichâ€ information with false facts),  
â€œlime-treeâ€ false information). There are still stereotypes about the  
KGB, like â€œKGB knows everythingâ€ or â€œKGB never arrests innocent  
citizens,â€ or â€œKGB officers take special pills and thatâ€™s why they are  
never drunk.â€ Yes, KGB officers drink vodka on weekends and sometimes in  
the offices with regular Russian appetizers like smoked sausage or fish,  
caviar and pickles, but itâ€™s a rare thing to see somebody really drunk.  
They drink mostly to ease tension from the job and social isolation. If you  
donâ€™t drink alcohol with your colleagues it means disrespect and is not  
very good for your promotion. They take no pills and are just accustomed to  
regulate themselves.

  The KGB business goes in cycles and itâ€™s like any other bureaucratic  
government agency â€” July and August are â€œdeadâ€ months (vacations) as  
well as November and December (planning and waiting for promotion). The crazy  
busy months are January, February, March and June, because the departments  
and divisions chiefs try to do most of the job (especially recruitment) that  
was planned for the whole year. If you still donâ€™t do anything itâ€™s not a  
problem but if you miss the recruitment targets, you are in trouble. First,  
itâ€™s not professional and even your friends wonâ€™t understand; second,  
itâ€™s a problem now for somebody else, because if you havenâ€™t met the  
recruitment target somebody has to recruit instead of you â€” and in a rush.
   KGB officers, due to professional demands, are physically fit, intelligent,  
well educated, have no mental problems and know how to talk and charm people  
â€” thatâ€™s the art of recruitment. All these qualities create a big problem  
for married men (99% are married) because women like them. Almost every  
officer has a lover, but divorce is out of question. First, itâ€™s bad for  
your career, second, you and your bosses have a terrible headache, because if  
you divorce and want to marry again, they have to check this woman â€” she  
must have â€œcleanâ€ biography: no criminals in the family, no relatives  
abroad, no mentally ill family members and she has to be normal too. In  
earlier years, every KGB officer was a CPSU (Communist Party of the Soviet  
Union) member and there were no political problems between the Party leaders  
and KGB chiefs. Still, there existed a super-secret Special Investigation  
Department in Moscow which was responsible for investigation of espionage or  
other criminal activity by senior Party members or government officials.

1.5.2  What we learn from KGB practice:

1) KGB intelligence never tries to save money on agents, especially those  
recruited or planted inside foreign government bureaucracies and special  
services. This rule explains how KGB got the American nuclear bomb.
2) KGB tries to get its agents out of jail no matter what, unlike the CIA  
which treats such agents as â€œdisposable.â€
3) The KGB practiced forcible confinement of dissidents in psychiatric  
hospitals, where debilitating drugs were administered (as an alternative to  
straightforward arrests and to avoid the unfavorable publicity that often  
arose with criminal trials).
4) Censorship of literature, media and art in general.
5) KGB mounted professional â€œactive-measuresâ€ operations using forged US  
Government documents, pictures, evidences, stories, rumors and other  
â€œofficialâ€ sources and media campaigns abroad to discredit all aspects of  
American policy and promote conflicts between the United States and its NATO  
allies and other states. No doubt the other top international agencies have  
similar operations throughout the world.
   The political effect of this type of operations can be very strong.  
American biological warfare was blamed for AIDS â€” it was â€œmanufactured  
during genetic engineering experiments at Fort Detrick, Maryland.â€ This  
information was â€œpushedâ€ in 1986 through a retired East German,  
Russian-born biophysicist, professor Jacob Segal, who gave an interview to  
the British Sunday Express. He insisted that this extremely dangerous virus  
had been synthesized from two natural viruses, VISNA and HTLV-1. In the first  
six months of 1987 alone the story received major coverage in over forty  
third-world countries, and on German and British TV. Africa still believes  
the story.
   Another example is a widespread story that the United States is developing  
â€œethnic-specific weaponsâ€ that would kill â€œnonwhites only.â€ Some  
people think SARS and Ebola are among the results, and wonder what the Bird  
Flu is all about. Or â€” how about the â€œbaby partsâ€ story widely  
published in over 50 countries in which Americans were blamed for butchering  
Latin American children and using their bodies for organ transplants. And  
finally there is a widespread belief among American blacks that the CIA  
introduced them to crack cocaine to â€œslow down the civil rights  
movement.â€ Some people wonder as well who was pushing marijuana and  
hallucinogenic drugs, free sex, wife-swapping, and a variety of other  
â€œtrendsâ€ that tore the social fabric in the United States in the 1960s, a  
tear that has never been mended? Any of the top intelligence services could  
have a role in encouraging developments which weaken America; or which  
distract and deflect the energies of restless students, intellectuals, the  
media and others who might criticize the war.
6) Every KGB officer is an analyst, unlike CIA employees.
7) KGB intelligence (SVR) always pursues global goals, which are currently:
- to block NATOâ€™s expansion
- to block US hegemony
- to expand Russiaâ€™s weapons market
- to continue high-tech, military and space technology espionage. (Before,  
the KGB was involved in the support of â€œnational liberation warsâ€ in the  
Third World, providing arms, advisers, military training and political  
indoctrination of leftist guerrillas.) In 1992 Russia signed an agreement on  
intelligence cooperation with China which is a direct threat to US national  
security.

There are two more important special services â€” FAPSI (Federal Agency for  
Government Communications and Information) and the Presidential Security  
Service. FAPSI is a target for us because its in charge of a special  
switchboard which includes coded telephone communications by Russian  
President, the prime minister and their assistants. FAPSI is also empowered  
to monitor and register all electronic financial and securities transactions  
and to monitor other electronic communications, including private Internet  
access.

1.6

  GESTAPO, secret state political police with unquestionable powers to arrest  
opponents of the Nazi regime, including Communists, liberals, Freemasons,  
Protestants, Jehovah Witnesses, Jews. It was responsible for  
counter-espionage and counter-sabotage.

1.6.1  The Gestapo structure:
Referat N: Central Intelligence Office.
Department A (Enemies: Communists (A1), Countersabotage (A2), Reactionaries  
and Liberals (A3), Assassinations (A4)
Department B (Sects and Churches : Catholics (B1), Protestants (B2),  
Freemasons (B3), Jews (B4)
Department C (Administration and Party Affairs). The central administrative  
office of the Gestapo, responsible for card files of all personnel.
Department D (Occupied Territories : Opponents of the Regime (D1), Churches  
and Sects (D2), Records and Party Matters (D3), Western Territories (D4),  
Counter-espionage (D5).
Department E (Counterintelligence: In the Reich (E1), Policy Formation (E2),  
In the West (E3), In Scandinavia (E4), In the East (E5), In the South (E6).

The local offices of the Gestapo were known as Staatspolizeistellen and  
Staatspolizeileistellen; they answered to a local commander known as the  
Inspecteur der Sicherheitspolizei und des SD (â€œinspector of the security  
police and security servicesâ€) who , in turn, was under the dual command of  
Referat N of the Gestapo and also his local SS and police leader. The Gestapo  
also maintained offices at all Nazi concentration camps, held an office on  
the staff of the SS and police leaders, and supplied personnel on an  
as-needed basis to such formations as the Einsatzgruppen. Such personnel,  
assigned to these auxiliary duties, was typically removed from the Gestapo  
chain of command and fell under the authority of other branches of the SS.

1.6.2   What we learn from Gestapo practices:

1. Investigated and fought against all activities which might endanger in any  
sense the security of Germany.
2. Kept operations simple and effective. Take for example the â€œpublic  
places total controlâ€ method: agents were recruited, first of all, at every  
big restaurant, bar, hotel or store. They delivered information on any client  
whose behavior was somewhat different from the general one: he was too  
excited or too depressed, too greedy or too generous, too open or too closed,  
too well dressed or vise versa, etc. And very often such a client deserved  
special attention.
3. Aggressive total recruitment â€” by the end of World War II there wasnâ€™t  
a single guerilla detachment, resistance or espionage group on occupied  
Soviet and European territories that had not been in part or completely  
eliminated by the GESTAPO or SD â€” 100 per cent professional  
counter-terrorist and counter-espionage job based on agent infiltration
4. The â€œNight and Fogâ€ operation. By 1941 the RSHA analysts reported that  
the â€œtaking hostagesâ€ practice was not effective any more as resistance  
on the occupied territories was even increasing after that went into effect.  
It was decided that resistance fighters had to be secretly arrested and  
secretly transported to Germany where, after investigation, they just  
vanished without a trace. The US in recent years has been taking insurgents  
and others arrested (often on suspicion alone) in Afghanistan, Iraq, and  
around the world, and transferring them via secret flights to secret jails in  
Eastern Europe and elsewhere for â€œinterrogationâ€. One might have  
predicted that the public outcry would quickly stamp out any such abomination  
as the prison at Guantanamo, but as we see the â€œcurrent incivilitiesâ€  
have already gone on longer than World War II and the camp is still there.
5. The Gestapo was abhorred for using â€œthird degreeâ€ methods of  
interrogation (see â€œSpecial Influenceâ€)
6 .The Gestapo had the power of the â€œprotective custodyâ€, a euphemism for  
the power to imprison people without judicial proceedings, typically in  
concentration camps. The person imprisoned even had to sign his or her own  
order declaring that the person had requested imprisonment (ostensibly out of  
fear  of personal harm) â€“ the signature was forced by tortures. People were  
sent to concentration camps if they, according to the Gestapo opinion, had  
received too little punishment. It was not only left-wing politicians and  
trade union activists who were sent to concentration camps. (The Gestapo also  
arrested beggars, prostitutes, homosexuals, alcoholics, drug addicts and  
anyone who was incapable to work).
  Besides, the Gestapo, actually, copied the KGB (NKVD) very effective  
structure and experience; they even coordinated joint actions. In March 1940  
representatives of NKVD and Gestapo met for one week in Zakopane, Poland to  
â€œpacificateâ€ resistance in this country. Then the Soviet Union delivered  
hundreds of German and Austrian communists to Gestapo, as unwanted foregners,  
with relevant documents.
7.  British and Americans did not want to deal with anti-Nazi. First, it was  
due to the aftermath of the Venlo incident of 1939, when Gestapo agents  
posing  as anti-Nazis in the Nethrlands kidnapped two British Secret  
Intelligence Service (SIS) officers lured to a meeting to discuss peace  
terms. That prompted Winston Churchill to ban any further contact with the  
German opposition. In addition, the allies did not want to contact anti-Nazis  
because they feared that  Soviet dictator Stalin would believe they were  
attempting to make deals behind his back.


1.7  CIA

Structure

Director  of the Central Intelligence  Agency
Deputy Director Associate Deputy Director
Associate Director for Military Support (the DCI principal advisor and  
representative on military issues.He coordinates Intelligence Community  
efforts to provide Joint Force commanders with timely, accurate intelligence;  
also supports Department of Defense officials who oversee military  
intelligence training and acquisition of intelligence systems and technology.  
A senior general officer, he ensures coordination of Intelligence Community  
policies, plans and requirements relating to support to military forces in  
the intelligence budget ).
National Intelligence Council
Office of Congressional Affairs
Center for the Study of Intelligence

Directorates:

Directorate of Administration
  Directorate of Intelligence Offices:
Presidentâ€™s Support Division, Operations Center, DCI Crime and Narcotics  
Center, DCI Nonproliferation Center, Collection Requirements and Evaluation  
Staff, Office of Advanced Analytic Tools, Office of Transitional Issues,  
Council of Intelligence Operations, Office of Support Services
Geographic Offices
Offices of Advanced Projects, Development and Engineering, Research and  
Development, Clandestine Information Technology Office, Technical Collection,  
Technical Service, Community Open Source Program, Foreign Broadcast  
Information
National Clandestine Service (Planning and carrying out covert  
destabilization operations, dissemination of propaganda, paramilitary  
operations, coordination between agencies)
Directorate of Plans
Counterintelligence Center
DCI Counterterrorist Center
National HUMINT (human intelligence) requirements center
Offices:
Communications, Facilities and Security Services, Finance and Logistics,  
Information Technology, Medical Services, Human Resources Management,  
Personnel Security, Training and Education, DCI Center for Security  
Evaluation, Center for Support Coordination

The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) was created by the National Security  
Act of 1947 to gather and analyze information from every corner of the globe  
and to provide the President with a covert operations capability. The CIA  
inherited the functions of the Office of Strategic Services (OSS).
Itâ€™s supposed to:
- correlate and evaluate intelligence relating to national security and  
provide for its appropriate dissemination
- collect, produce and disseminate foreign intelligence and  
counterintelligence (which if collected within the United States must be  
coordinated with the FBI)
- mcollect, produce and disseminate intelligence on foreign aspects of  
narcotics production and trafficking
- conduct counterintelligence activities outside the United States and,  
without assuming or performing any internal security functions, conduct  
counterintelligence activities within the United States in coordination with  
the FBI
- conduct special activities approved by the President

Since 1947 the CIA has been on forward-march and has advanced inexorably.
Right after World war II , the CIA protected high profile Nazi war criminals,  
including Adolf Eicman; recruited tens of thousands of Nazis, many of whom  
were later sent to aid in operations in South America.
1951
Some outstanding CIA failures:
- failure to predict the June 1950 North Korea invasion of the South Korea
- failure to predict the â€œFall of Czechoslovakiaâ€
- failure to foresee â€œTitoâ€™s defectionâ€ from Moscow
- failure to predict the â€œFall of Chinese Nationalistsâ€
- failure to foresee the Israeli victory in Palestine
- failure to judge the mood of the Latin American states at the Bogota  
Conference in 1948
1960-1961
CIA with the help of Mafia assasins pursued a series of plots to poison or  
shoot Fidel Castro according to the assassination plots proposed by Colonel  
Sheffield Edwards, Director of the CIA Office of  Security.
1962
Prior to the 1962 Cuban crisis, the CIA reported to President Kennedy that  
the USSR wouldnâ€™t risk a nuclear war. During the crisis they insisted that  
the USSR might risk nuclear war. In both cases their National Intelligence  
Estimate was grossly off-base.
1968.
The CIA supported the Baâ€™ah Party coup dâ€™etat against the government of  
Rahman Arif, with Saddam Hussein eventually assuming power.
1980
The Reagan transition team for the CIA (November, 1980) reported the  
following:
â€œThe fundamental problem confronting American security is the current  
dangerous condition of the Central Intelligence Agency and of national  
intelligence collection generally. The failure of American intelligence  
collection has been at the heart of faulty defense planning and misdirected  
foreign policy.â€
   The team pointed out to the following intelligence failures:
- the general and continuing failure to predict the actual size and scope of  
the Soviet military effort and military sector of the Russian GNP
- the consistent gross misstatement of Soviet global objectives
- the wholesale failure to understand or attempt to counteract Soviet  
disinformation and propaganda
- the general failure to explain the characteristics of Soviet conventional  
weapon systems and vessels â€” for example the new Russian guided missile  
cruises
- the wholesale failure to understand and predict the nature of the so-called  
wars of national liberation in Africa and Central and South America
- the consistent miscalculation regarding the effect of and general apology  
for massive technology transfer from West to the East
- the apparent internal failure of counterintelligence generally.
The team went on to observe.â€œThe unhealthy symbiosis between the CIA and  
the Department of State is the chief underlying cause of the security  
position of the United States. The next Director of the Central Intelligence  
Agency â€¦ will be told repeatedly by virtually everyone in policy positions  
at the Agency that the CIA is a highly professional, non-political agency  
that produces â€˜objectiveâ€™ intelligence. Those assertions are arrant  
nonsense. In part out of mutual drive for individual and corporate  
self-preservation, the CIA has become an elitist organization which engenders  
unshakable loyalty among its staff. The National Intelligence Estimate  
process is itself a bureaucratic game. These failures are of such enormity,  
that they cannot help but suggest to any objective observer that the agency  
itself is compromised to an unprecedented extent and that its paralysis is  
attributable to causes more sinister than incompetence.â€
1991
The CIA appears to have failed completely to predict the Soviet empire  
collapse and the end of the Cold War as such. Robert Gates, the fifteenth CIA  
Director (and later George W.â€™s Defense Secretary), as much as said in his  
acceptance speech on November 12, 1991 that the CIA is a mafia: â€œThe people  
at Langley were more than a team; they were a family. I hope this sense of  
family, with all that implies, can be strengthened in the time ahead.â€
1992-1995.
CIA orchestrated a bomb-and-sabotage campaign against civilian and government  
targets in Baghdad .The civilian targets included, at least, one school  
bus,killing schoolchildren; a cinema, killing many people. The  campaign was  
directed by the CIA agent Dr. Iad Allawi, later installed as prime minister  
by the U.S.-led coalition after the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003.
1996
The House Permanent Select Committee om Intelligence issued a congressional  
report estimating that the clandestine service part of the intelligence  
community â€œeasilyâ€ breaks â€œextremely serious lawsâ€ in countries  
around the world, 100,000 tiemes every year.
1998.
In 1996 the San Jose Mercury News wrote about the use of CIA aircraft, which  
had ferried arms to the Contras, to ship cocaine to the United States during  
the return flights. It was revealed also that Central America narcotics  
traffickers could import cocaine to the U.S. cities in the 1980â€™s without  
the interference of normal law enforcement agencies; this led to the crack  
cocaine epidemic, especially in poor neighborhoods of Las Angeles, and CIA  
intervened to prevent the prosecution of drug dealers who were helping to  
fund the Contras. After that the CIA Inspector General Hitz was assigned to  
investigate these allegations. In 1998 the DCI George Tenet declared that he  
was releasing the report, which showed that the â€œCIA did not  
â€˜expeditiouslyâ€™ cut off relations with alleged drug traffickersâ€ and  
the â€œCIA was aware of allegations that â€˜dozens of people and a number of  
companies connected in some fashion to the contras programâ€™ were involved  
in drug traffickingâ€.
The Kerry Committee report also found the the  U.S. State Department had paid  
drug ttraffickers  (!).
2001
The US lost 3,000 lives at Pearl Harbor in 1941 because someone was  
instructed not to pay attention to certain intelligence information that was  
available. Who was managing the intelligence and deciding where to look  
closer and where to turn a blind eye on September 11, when another 3,000  
American lives were lost?
2005
Arrest warrants for 22 CIA agents were issued within the European Union. The  
agents are alledged to have taken an Egyptian,Hassan Mustafa Osama Nasr, a  
suspected terrorist, from Milan on February 17,2003 for extraordinary  
rendition to Egypt, where he was tortured.
German Khalid El-Masri filed a lawsuit against former CIA Direrctor George  
Tenet, claiming that he was transported from Macedonia to a prison in  
Afghanistan and held captive  there by the CIA for 5 months on a case of  
mistaken identity.

What We Learn from CIA Practice
Nothing positive.

1. The CIAâ€™s history up to today is a history of paralysis.
The grand problem is â€” our government canâ€™t preemptively handle foreign  
policy and national security matters because it has no adequate intelligence  
information; in fact it has no idea (neither has the CIA) what such high  
level political intelligence information would be.
Yes, Iâ€™m talking here about the Senate Intelligence Committee which has  
primary oversight responsibility for the CIA in Congress. Ask the National  
Security Agency to start intercepting world leadersâ€™ talks and phone calls  
worldwide â€” if we are spending this much money on NSA special intelligence,  
we ought to be able to intercept the calls and break the coded  
communications. This information would have to be the essence of the US  
Presidentâ€™s Daily Briefings and this information has to be the base of  
National Intelligence Daily Report and National Intelligence Estimate â€”  
which is a regular failure of the CIA â€” many presidents ignore these  
reports as trash. This information would have to be the basis of National  
Security Council decisions. Sorry, we donâ€™t have a global US intelligence  
strategy or intelligence strategists and Iâ€™m not going to do the job while  
16,000 â€œgood olâ€™ boysâ€ drink the day away  at Langley.
2. I strongly recommend to stop the CIAâ€™s secret funding right now, funding  
that is not made public or audited by the Congress. The CIA has its own  
budget but they want more, which they will waste, and some so-called  
â€œoperationsâ€ are financed by secret transfers of funds from the  
appropriations accounts of other agencies, primarily the Defense Department.
3. You canâ€™t reform the CIA â€” they are too accustomed to a comfortable  
existence, uncontrolled and irresponsible, because they, unlike military  
intelligence, do not function according to discipline, strict and  
understandable orders and patriotism.

The CIA has to be shut down, and its political intelligence functions and  
funding have to be transferred to the Defense Intelligence Agency. Platitudes  
like â€œthe transition period is complex and takes timeâ€ are not convincing  
â€” military personnel should take over the Langley headquarters with not a  
single CIA employee (and all the inevitable â€œmolesâ€) within a week and  
start cleaning up the so-called top-secret papers and files, 90% of which is  
â€œinformation noise.â€ While the CIA is a â€œfamilyâ€ ruled by the  
so-called â€œfour princesâ€ (heads of four directorates), the Army is a  
brotherhood of patriots whose leader is the US President, the  
Commander-in-Chief. He can trust them â€” show me a single American (or  
anyone else) who trusts the CIA.


                             One of my attempts to reform CIA started with  
application for CIA Director position in 2002.


__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

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1.8  MOSSAD
The Israeli MOSSAD (Institute for Intelligence and Special Tasks), formed in  
1951, has responsibility for human intelligence collection, covert action and  
counterterrorism with the focus on Arab nations and organizations throughout  
the world.

MOSSAD Structure
Director
Collection Department: espionage operations
Political Action and Liaison Department: political activities and liaison  
with friendly foreign intelligence services and with nations with which  
Israel does not have normal diplomatic relations â€”who is responsible for  
Israelâ€™s image, which is extremely low on the international arena? What  
these people are doing over there? Drinking kosher vodka?
LAP Department: psychological warfare, propaganda and deception operations. I  
have the same question for this department.
Research Department: intelligence production, including daily situations  
reports, weekly summaries and detailed monthly reports, weekly summaries and  
detailed monthly reports.
15 geographic sections.
Special Operations Division: assassination, sabotage, paramilitary and  
psychological warfare projects
Technology Department: development of advanced technologies to support  
operations

1.8.1 What we learn from MOSSAD practice:
1. Very effective method of non-stop 24/7 monitoring of all Arab terrorists  
leadersâ€™ movements all over the world. Donâ€™t you think they know where  
Osama Bin-Laden is? â€” if MOSSAD had informants among his aides before, it  
has them now.
2. Unlimited practice of political murders â€” which means MOSSAD has no idea  
how to recruit and work with Arab agents (monitoring is a passive tool).
3. MOSSAD has been super-active at the United Nations, with zero effect â€”  
99% of the UN delegates vote against Israel on every issue.

   My Israeli colleagues have some unfortunate qualities: they promote an  
unprecedented level of PR according to which every MOSSAD officer is a genius  
and each MOSSAD Director is â€œMr. Intelligence.â€ MOSSAD unfortunately  
soiled its reputation in the international espionage community after the case  
of the exceptionally unprofessional John Pollard. The following morality tale  
emphasizes the first rule of recruitment â€” do not recruit psychos.
  John Pollard was born in 1954 in Texas to a Jewish family. He studied at  
Stanford University and being a schizophrenic and drug abuser, claimed he was  
a colonel in the Israeli army and a MOSSAD spy. After Stanford the US Navy  
hired him in 1979 as a civilian intelligence analyst at Naval Operational  
Surveillance and Intelligence Center, the Naval Intelligence Support Center  
and the Naval Investigative Center.In 1984 they brought him into the  
Anti-Terrorism Alert Center where he gained access to the whole federal  
intelligence system and a high level of clearance known as SCI or Sensitive  
Compartmented Information, and a special â€œcourier cardâ€ that opened the  
CIA, FBI, State Department and National Security Agency restricted archives  
for him.
   In May 1984, through a New York businessman, he was introduced to Israeli  
Air Force colonel Aviem Sella. Pollard told him that he had positive proof  
that the USA, the only Israelâ€™s ally, friend and sponsor, was not sharing  
all the intelligence data it should with Israel, and Pollard was angry with  
the US and willing to help his historic motherland. (In truth, although  
Israel does not share much with the US, Israel was receiving full political,  
economic and military support from the US plus $3 billion a year at that time  
â€” and even more in recent years.) The report about the â€œwalk-inâ€  
volunteer was passed to Rafi Eitan, the LACAM (Israeli military technology  
espionage agency) chief, and in a month Pollard was recruited. For a year  
Pollard was supplying Israel with top secret documents, including satellite  
reconnaissance photographs which were of a special interest to LACAM. The  
documents were going straight to Prime Minister Shimon Pres, Foreign Minister  
Yitzhak Shamir and Defense Minister Yitzhak Rabin.
Finally on November 21, 1985 the FBI went after him. In a chase, he made it  
into the Israeli embassy in Washington, DC, but the MOSSAD officers threw him  
out. He may spend the rest of his life in jail. So far President George Bush  
and President Bill Clinton have refused the multiple Israeli requests to  
pardon him.

Since 2000 MOSSAD has advertised its recruitment of collection officers (a  
concept which is unthinkable for the KGB).

1.9 Ministry of State Security (MSS), China.

  Chinaâ€™s MSS aggressively targets the US high tech sector heavily  
concentrated in Silicon Valley. Cover for Beijingâ€™s espionage includes the  
1,500 Chinese diplomats, 15,000 Chinese students who arrive here each year  
and 2, 700 visiting delegations each year and the US correspondents of the  
major Chinese newspapers, including The Peopleâ€™s Daily and Xinhua News  
Agency. (Altogether the MSS has established â€œbranchesâ€ in 170 cities in  
nearly 50 countries all over the world). Here what communist China is doing  
in the United States.
  1998 was a very special year. We got 4 (four) cases of suspected Chinese  
espionage against the United States dating back to the 1980s. The most  
serious case involved Chinaâ€™s alleged acquisition of key information about  
our nationâ€™s most advanced miniaturized US nuclear warhead, the W-88, as  
well as serious security breaches at the Department of Energy (DOE) Los  
Alamos Laboratory between 1984 and 1988. In 1997 Dr. Peter Lee, who worked   
in Los Alamos on classified projects  relating to the use of lasers to  
stimulate nuclear detonations, was convicted for passing classified national  
defense information to Chinaâ€™s representatives. In 1999, FBI arrested Wen  
Lee, a Taiwan-born Chinese American scientist, who downloaded critical  
nuclear weapons codes, called legacy codes, from a classified computer system  
at Los Alamos to an unclassified system accessible to anyone with the proper  
password.  Same year the Presidentâ€™s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board  
presented a report saying that  DOE â€œis a dysfunctional bureaucracy that  
has proven it is incapable of reforming itselfâ€.
   China is striving to acquire advanced American technology of any sort,  
whether for military or civilian purposes, as part of its government program  
to improve its entire economic infrastructure â€“  a direct threat to our  
national security. They are mostly interested in astronautics, information  
technology, laser technology, automation technology, energy technology, new  
materials. Watch, if you have to deal with China Aerospace Corporation (CASC)  
and its Hong Kong subsidiary China Aerospace International Holdings, China  
National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC), China North Industries Group (NORINCO),  
Aviation Industries Corporation of China (AVIC), China Nanchang Aircraft  
Manufacturing Company, China National South Aero-Engine and Machinery  
Company, Qinghua University Nuclear Research Institute,  China International  
Trade and Investment Company (CITIC), Polytechnologies Corporation, China  
Great Wall Industry Corporation, China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC),  
China Ocean Shipping Company (COSCO).

   China is trying to steal from us information in the following areas of  
military concern:
1. Biological warfare. Gene researches (bioengineering) that could have  
biological warfare application.
2. Space technology. Satellites with remote sensing capabilities, which could  
be used for military reconnaissance, as well as space launch vehicles.
3. Military information technology. Intelligent computers, optoelectronics,  
image processing for weather forecasting; the production of submicron  
integrated circuits on 8-inch silicon wafers. These programs could lead to  
the development of military communications systems; command, control  
communications and intelligence systems; advances in military software  
development.
  4. Laser weapons. Pulse-power techniques, plasma technology and laser  
spectroscopy, all of which are useful in the development of laser weapons.
5. Automation technology. Computer-integrated manufacturing systems and  
robotics. Electronics, machinery, space, chemistry, telecommunications.
6. Nuclear weapons.
7. Exotic materials. Optoelectronic information materials, structural  
materials, special function materials, composites, rare-earth metals, new  
energy compound materials that could advance the development of military  
aircraft.

  The primary professional Chinaâ€™s intelligence services, involved in  
military technology espionage are the Ministry of State Security (MSS) and  
the PLA General Staffâ€™s Military Intelligence Department (MID). The MSS  
relies on a network of non-professional individuals and organizations acting  
outside the direct control of the intelligence services, including scientific  
delegations and China nationals working abroad.

  China also adopted a three-track approach to acquiring US equipment and  
technologies:
-the diversion of parts or tools from commercial end uses
-direct purchase
-joint ventures



    1.9.1 Traitor Bill Clinton.

   In 1996 , Sunbase Asia, Incorporated purchased Southwest Products  
Corporation, A California producer of ball bearings for US military aircraft.  
Sunbase is incorporated in the United States, but is owned by an investment  
group comprised of some of the PRCâ€™s largest state-owned conglomerates as  
well as a Hong Kong company. According to a Southwest executive, the purchase  
will â€œtake (Sunbase) to the nextâ€ level of technology. The Clinton  
administration determined that additional information on this transaction  
could not be made public without affecting national security (?!).
   In 1997, China Ocean Shipping Company (COSCO), the PRCâ€™s state-owned  
shipping company which operates under the direction of the Ministry of  
Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation and answers to the PRC State Council,  
attempted to lease port space that was being vacated by the US Navy in Long  
Beach, California. The lease proposal led to a heated debate  between  
Congress, which wanted to prevent the lease based on national security  
concerns, and President Clinton, who supported the lease. Legislation passed  
by both houses of Congress barred the lease and voided the Presidentâ€™s  
authority to grant a waiver.
   A year earlier US Customs confiscated over 2,000 assault rifles AK-47 that  
were being smuggled into the United States aboard COSCO ships. The Clinton  
administration determined that additional information concerning COSCO could  
not be made public without affecting national security (?!). The House Select  
Committee on U.S. National Security and Military/Commercial Concerns with the  
Peopleâ€™s Republic of China (Cox Committee) received evidence of PRC theft  
of technology data from US industry during the 1990s valued at millions of  
dollars. China used Chinese nationals for that purpose. The Clinton  
administration has determined that no details of this evidence may be made  
public without affecting national security.

   Chinese intelligence targets the US high-tech sector, but what is much more  
important is Chinaâ€™s strategy to bribe the President, Senators and  
Representatives by discreetly financing, through intermediaries, federal and  
state elections. In such a way China is getting favorable American treatment  
on trade policy, including selling nuclear weapons and technology to such  
countries as Iran and Libya. In 1991 the National Security Agency intercepted  
communications indicating that China was trying to â€œinfluenceâ€ 30  
Congressional candidates (mostly Democrats) through campaign contributions.  
Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich was one of those candidates. According  
to James F. Lilley, a former US Ambassador to China: â€œThe FBI discovered  
Chinese efforts to interfere in American campaigns as early as 1991 and  
warned a number of Democratic members of Congress to watch for Chinese  
donations passed through intermediariesâ€¦Itâ€™s the way they operate in  
Asian countries. They do it by bribing government officials; they bribe them  
to change policy.â€ Senator Fred Thompson, who chaired the 1997 campaign  
finance hearings, said that â€œHigh-level Chinese government officials  
crafted a plan to increase Chinaâ€™s influence over the US political process,  
and took specific steps to do so, including the allocation of substantial  
sums of money to influence federal and state elections.â€
  Secret services always conduct detailed research before they â€œdoâ€ a  
certain person, and in Bill Clinton they found one who was a ripe target.  
China recruited Johnny Chung, a democratic fundraiser, who got $100,000 from  
another agent, Liu Chaoying (who worked on defense modernization for China  
Peopleâ€™s Liberation Army), and gave the money to Democratic National  
Committee. Then, by the order of Chungâ€™s boss, general Ji Shengde, $300,000  
were deposited into the Torrance businessmanâ€™s account to subsidize  
campaign donations intended for Clinton. Another $500,000 were â€œdonatedâ€  
to an international trading firm, established by a former Clintonâ€™s aide.  
Then Chung escorted the wife and son of Chinese military intelligence to a  
political fundraiser in Los Angeles in 1996, at which Democratic officials  
asked for a $25,000 contribution for the opportunity to introduce his  
â€œfriendsâ€ to Bill Clinton. And then Clinton overrode then-Secretary of  
State Warren Christophersonâ€™s decision to limit Chinaâ€™s ability to launch  
American-made satellites on Chinese rockets. Later Bernard Schwartz, the  
â€œLoralâ€ CEO and the largest individual contributor to the DNC, appeared  
on the stage. What happened? I donâ€™t know what happened in 1996, but in  
1998 the US federal grand jury was investigating whether â€œLoralâ€  
illegally gave China space expertise that significantly advanced Beijingâ€™s  
ballistic missile program. Schwartz was ready to export to China airborne  
reconnaissance cameras, weapon delivery systems, and target acquisition and  
missile guidance systems. Clinton â€œshut upâ€ the federal grand jury by  
approving the â€œLoralâ€ deal. Bravo, China!

1.10 Federal Intelligence Service (BND), Germany
Like the KGB, the German BND chose total global espionage as its basic  
strategy. This means strong government support, perfect semi-classified  
financing. It means Germany wants to dominate not only in Europe but  
worldwide â€” a very dangerous tendency if you think about the past. I once  
met a BND officer under cover as an engineer in Ukraine; we had beer and  
vodka and he talked to me pretty straight about Ukraine and its  
post-Chernobyl radioactive future. He informed me about a super-secret deal  
Ukrainian President Kravchuk signed with Germany, allowing the transfer of  
German radioactive waste to Ukraine). The BND is very sensitive to  
international illegal weapons, radioactive materials and the drugs trade.

1.11 General Directorate for External Security (DGSE), France
French security officials, like those of other countries, are suspicious of  
foreigners and have perhaps less mercy and respect for their colleagues and  
for quarries from other countries. In the USA they are very aggressive in  
high-tech and industrial espionage.

1.12 Secret Intelligence Service (MI6, â€œThe Firmâ€), Great Britain
Thank God, our British friends donâ€™t seem to be focusing on us â€” but who  
knows? Right now they are too busy working against Germany (industrial and  
military secrets) and France (military technology). God bless them.

     Chapter  2.   Special Influence

1. Tortures

Torture is a category of methods of interrogation designed to shock, hurt and  
humiliate the object and get information or to make him do something (if used  
for blackmail). Points to remember:
-ongoing torture decreases pain sensitivity
-people with strong will power take torture as a test
-resistance to torture is often a form of hysterics after arrest
-the object could take himself as a martyr if you torture him too much
-torture could damage objectâ€™s psyche and you wonâ€™t be able to work with  
him (thatâ€™s why we keep terrorists in Guantanamo Bay without trial â€“ we  
turn them into idiots)
-people usually trust â€œafter torture informationâ€ more than voluntary  
confessions
-there are different types of torture and professionals often combine them

  Techniques of psychological torture include:
- fake execution
- complete isolation (â€œwall therapyâ€)
- daylight deprivation
- forcible narcotics addiction. Here you can use  depressants, stimulants,  
opiates or hallucinogens (psychodelics): depressants (alcohol, barbiturates,  
antianxiety drugs
  with effects of euphoria, tension reduction, disinhibition, muscle  
relaxation, drowsiness; stimulants (cocaine, amphetamine, methamphetamine  
(crystal meth),  with effects of  fast
- euphoria, exhilaration, high physical and mental energy, reduced appetite,  
perceptions of power , and sociability; hallucinogens  with effects of  
euphoria, hallucinations, distorted perceptions and    sensations
-making the object observe others being tortured (such as family members)
-abuse of objectâ€™s national, religious feelings or political views)
The effects of psychological torture are: anxiety, depression, fear,  
psychosis, difficulty concentrating, communication disabilities, insomnia,  
impaired memory, headaches, hallucinations, sexual disturbances, destruction  
of self-image, inability to socialize

Techniques of physical torture include:
-food, water, sleep deprivation
-damage to vital body organs (brain, lungs, kidneys, liver, private parts)  
plus electric shock. The brain is particularly dependent on a continuous and  
stable supply of oxygen and glucose.
-rape
-face deformation
-water cure ( the torturer pours water down the throat of the subject to  
inflict the terror of drowning. In another variation, the subject is tied or  
held don in a chair, his face is covered with a cloth or plastic sheet, and  
water is poured slowly or quickly over his face to encourage him to talk
The effects of physical torture are: extreme (unbearable) pain, hypertension,  
fatigue, cardio-pulmonary and other disorders, brain atrophy.

2. Special psychology

1. â€œBrain washingâ€ (implantation of new ideas). The process is: isolation  
from outside world (â€œinformation vacuumâ€) â€” sleep and food limitation  
(very effective) â€” â€œbombingâ€ with slogans - ideological aggression -  
achieving the result (brain is loaded). The object is now ready to brainwash  
newcomers.
2. â€œBehavior modificationâ€ (by placing into a group). The process is:  
initial contact â€” introduction to a group â€” mutual interests â€” mutual  
activityâ€“mutual ideas â€” control and prevention of any negative contacts  
outside the group. No rush, no pressure.
3. Special psychotherapy methods: talk + drugs + blondes + alcohol (used for  
recruitment)
Attention: An alcoholic is more impulsive, untrustful and unreliable; he  
demonstrates a poverty of ideas and incapacity for attention. He usually has  
serious personality maladjustments. Heâ€™s immature, insecure, oversensitive  
and anxious. Without alcohol heâ€™s unable to meet and enjoy people socially,  
and suffers from marked feeling of inferiority. Besides, alcoholics suffer  
from vitamin B1 deficiency, which leads to anatomic changes in the central  
nervous system and heart with symptoms like anorexia, fatigability, and sleep  
disturbances. Other common symptoms are irritability, poor memory, inability  
to concentrate, heart pain.
4. â€œTransferâ€ (the object is placed in a regular hospital and then heâ€™s  
transferred to a mental health clinic or jail). In jail you can use such  
methods an accelerated work schedule (to exhaust the object), turning him  
into a number to traumatize his psyche, physical punishment or a threat of  
punishment to keep the object tense and depressed; senseless labor to destroy  
his personality. Remember: the lower the intellectual level of the object,  
the more aggressive he is and more sensitive to incentive or punishment.
You can actually re-organize any objectâ€™s behavior by combining rewards and  
punishments, exposing him to feared situations and teaching him an instinct  
of a total (political) obedience.
   Imprisonment is a very strong (sometimes â€” ultimate) tool. My friend who  
spent 10 years in jail described the changes in his behavior like this:
1st year â€” aggression as self-defense method (to survive)
2nd year â€” less personal tension, attempts to adapt the mind and body to  
the new, isolated way of life
3rd, 4th, 5th â€” gaining some inside status
6th, 7th â€” life in jail looks like natural routine
10th â€” euphoria before gaining freedom

3. Blackmail
Used to force a person to do something (or stop the action) against his will;  
itâ€™s used also for recruitment. Blackmail methods include:

1. Leaking â€œdirtâ€ on the object through media
2. Creating problems in his personal life and career
3. Straight blackmail (threatening to make public certain compromising facts  
about him)
4. Placing weapons, drugs, secret documents in objectâ€™s house or office,  
followed by search and arrest
5. Accusations of rape (robbery) (use hookers for that)
6. Blackmail by pressing family members. Careful, object may commit suicide  
after intense blackmail, especially if he is an intellectual



Chapter 3.    Special tools

3.1 Surveillance


   Actual espionage is not what you see in the movies and you have absolutely  
no chance of evasion if a real professional surveillance crew is following  
you. Why? Because they use multiple methods and mixed methods.

I. Physical surveillance.

3.1.1 Methods

1. â€œOne lineâ€ - officers follow the object forming a line behind him and  
passing him one by one.
2. â€œTwo linesâ€ - officers form two lines on both sides of the street.
3. â€œCircleâ€ - officers block the area and start searching (used in case  
they lose the object).
4. â€œForkâ€ - one officer (a car) moves in front of the object, another one  
â€” behind, other officers (cars) move along parallel streets.
5. â€œBoxâ€ - used when the object enters supermarket, hotel, restaurant.  
One or two officers follow the object, the others wait for him at the exits.
6. â€œDemonstrationâ€ - officers demonstrate their presence to press the  
object and lower his activity.
7. â€œProvocationâ€ - officers attack the object, beat him, steal (secret)  
documents. Often used to lower his activity if heâ€™s trying to play James  
Bond.
8. â€œOutstripâ€ - officers do not follow the object because they know  
exactly where heâ€™s going.
9. â€œFootballâ€ - officers pass the object to each other (car â€” a group  
â€” bicyclist â€” carâ€¦)
10. â€œMovieâ€ - the crew watches the object in stages: first day â€” to the  
subway only, second day â€” from subway to his office, etc. (used abroad).  
The crew has to have a female member if they are watching a woman (she could  
use the ladies room for a secret meeting) and members of various ethnicities  
(white, black, Latino) because the object could go to a specific ethnic area.

3.1.2 If youâ€™re the object and youâ€™ve noticed surveillance:

Donâ€™t rush, move at the same speed.
Relax at the nearest bar (and relax the crew).
Donâ€™t show how professional you are by trying to disappear, otherwise they  
could intensify surveillance or even neutralize you (smash your car, beat you  
up).
Postpone the operation you were engaged in .
Use a â€œdraughtâ€ if you need to see your agent no matter what. Change  
lanes (if you are driving), stop the car and then drive left or right.

If you donâ€™t see surveillance, that means either thereâ€™s no surveillance  
or youâ€™ve failed in counter-surveillance. Discreetly watch the agent  
whoâ€™s coming to meet you and try to detect any possible surveillance; or  
you may have been â€œoutstripped.â€

3.1.3 Surveillance crew mistakes:

The same crew follows the object all day long.
The object â€œrulesâ€ the crew and calculates it (he moves faster â€” the  
crew moves faster).
A crew member is too noticeable (unusual dress, haircut, disabled parts of  
the body, too fat or too skinny, too ugly or too pretty).
The crew starts to search possible hiding places for espionage evidence right  
after the object leaves (and he may be watching).
The crew leaves traces after a secret search of the objectâ€™s house  
(office).
The crew does not report its mistakes or the fact that theyâ€™ve lost the  
object.
The crew is not professional (using childish tricks like jumping out of a  
subway train just before the doors close).

II. Technical Surveillance

1.  Visual surveillance. Done through special holes in the ceilings and  
walls, through the windows from the opposite building (car) or by installing  
the camera inside the house (you can substitute something, like a clock, for  
the same thing but â€œstuffedâ€ with a camera or recorder.) You can use  
informant as well to watch the object outside his house (especially if you  
want to do a secret search).
2.  Listening devices. The easiest thing is to listen to the objectâ€™s phone  
(record all calls, including those dialed â€œby mistakeâ€).  If you work  
inside his apartment, make sure you equip the room where he usually talks.  
Attention: avoid widespread mistake when your agent keeps the listening  
device on his body; install a miniature device in his clothes or shoes,  
because the object could try a test and ask the agent to take off his clothes  
or invite him to the sauna or pool.
3. If you are working abroad, listen 24/7 to local counterintelligence  
surveillance radiofrequencies.
4. Reading the mail. When you control the objectâ€™s mail, remember he could  
use multiple addresses and PO boxes. Open all the letters with no return  
address or PO box. Watch when you open the letter â€” the object could leave  
a tiny piece of paper, hair, etc. to check if anybody opened the letter.  
Analyze the text carefully â€” there could be a cipher or the words with  
double meaning (jargon), especially when you read mafia mail.
5. Combination of above-mentioned methods

3.2 Murders:

3.2.1   Regular

Shooting, explosives or poison (cyanides, curare). Use a sniper or a  
â€œmouseâ€ car (loaded with explosives and parked on the objectâ€™s route)  
if access to the object is impossible because of high security. Anyway, the  
murder is obvious and investigation is inevitable.

General scheme.
The best thing to do is to recruit or â€œ installâ€ somebody with access to  
the objectâ€™s security system and get information on his schedule (plus  
health and habits), places where he likes to relax. Try to gain access to his  
phone.
Then prepare the plan and train three groups: surveillance (with optics and  
radios), action (includes snipers, explosives technicians or staged accidents  
specialists), and security (these people neutralize bodyguards, witnesses and  
other people who could interrupt the action; they complete the action if the  
action group fails; and they can neutralize the action group later, if  
planned so; they â€œcoverâ€ the safe retreat of action group and â€œcutâ€  
the chase).
For some operations you can modify the ammunition to make it more deadly -  
hollow cuts in the tip of the bullets will cause the lead to fragment upon  
impact, making a huge exit hole. You reach same effect using bullets with a  
drop of mercury in a hollow tip and you can also coat bullets with arsenic or  
cyanide. Use depleted, non-radioactive uranium bullets (uranium is much  
heavier than lead - it can be used to make a bullet with a smaller slug and a  
larger portion of explosive). Teflon bullets are good because with Teflonâ€™s  
antifriction characteristics they pierce bullet proof vests.

3.2.2  Complex

   Staged accidents (suicides, catastrophes, drowning or fall, robbery or rape  
followed by murder, technical accident (fire, electricity, gas), drugs,  
weapons, poison, explosives misuse. Also, staged natural death (stroke, heart  
attack, chronic illness as a result of special technical devices like  
irradiation).
  Attention: you can conceal injection sites by choosing areas that could not  
be easily detected, such as fingernails or toenails. For staged accidents you  
can use acetone (absorption of large quantities via either the respiratory or  
gastrointestinal tract results in decreased respiration, stupor and death);  
carbon monoxide â€” acetylene gas, illuminating gas (coal gas), automobile  
gas, furnace gas; or a simple novocaine + coffee combination. In some cases  
nonbacterial food poisoning is suitable. It can occur following the ingestion  
of (1) certain species of mushrooms such as Amanita Muscaria, which contains  
the toxic alkaloid muscarine, and Amanita Phalloides, which contains  
phalloidin or other toxins, (2) immature or sprouting potatoes, the active  
poison of which is colanin, (3) mussels â€” death may occur as a result of  
respiratory failure, (4) grain, especially rye, which has become contaminated  
with the ergot fungus, Claviceps Purpurea. Ergot contains a number of active  
principles including ergotoxin, tyramine and ergamin (histamine), (5) fruits  
sprayed with salts of lead or arsenic and food stored in cadmium-lined  
containers.
  Staged botulism is effective, too. Itâ€™s an acute intoxication manifested  
by neuromuscular disturbances, following ingestion of food containing a  
toxin, elaborated by Clostridium botulinum, a common soil bacillus. The  
disease is always caused by the ingestion of improperly preserved food,  
usually a home-canned product, in which the toxin has been produced during  
the growth of the causative organism. The spores of Clostridium botulinum are  
highly resistant to heat; in water they require exposure for 5 hours at  
212Â°F to ensure their death.
   The preserved food wherein the toxin is most commonly found are string  
beans, corn, spinach, olives, beets, asparagus, sea food, pork products and  
beef. The mortality of botulism may be as high as 65 per cent. Most of the  
fatal cases die between the 2nd and 9th days following the ingestion of the  
toxin. Death usually results from respiratory paralysis or from secondary  
bronchopneumonia. In those who survive, the disease usually reaches its  
height in the first days of illness. Recovery is characteristically very slow  
and residual weakness of the ocular muscles may persist for many months.
   Some cases demand usage of poisons, both organic â€” like concentrated  
nicotine that enters the body through skin or concentrated inhalation of  
horseradish, garlic or rotten meat, which causes breathing paralysis; poisons  
extracted from rattlesnake, cobra, stonefish, and inorganic â€” arsenic,  
thallium, cyanides. Teflon can generate a deadly methane gas; or carbon  
tetrachloride can be boiled or burnt so that it gives off lethal phosgene  
gas. Any poison could be mixed with an agent that enters the body through the  
skin and takes anything with it.
  Against terrorists, use their own weapons â€” high and low explosives. High  
explosives include TNT (trinitrotoluene), nitroglycerine, dynamite,  
plastique. Nitroglycerine is a mix of nitric acid (made by mixing saltpeter,  
potassium nitrate and sulfuric acid, then heating them and condensing the  
fumes), pure sulfuric acid and glycerin. TNT (nitric acid, sulfuric acid,  
toluene) is far more stable. Plastique is composed of cyclotrimethylene  
trinitramine, isomethylene and motor oil.
  Low explosives - gasoline, saltpeter, picric acid, acetone peroxide, urea  
nitrate.
  Many ingredients like gasoline, paraffin naphtha, acetone, swimming-pool  
cleaner, high-nitrogen fertilizer are generally available. Saltpeter is  
extracted from any soil with old decayed animal or vegetable matter - pour  
boiling water through, filter the water through wood ash, boil solution,  
remove salt crystals and leave the remaining solution to evaporate until only  
the potassium nitrate (saltpeter) crystals are left.
  Mixed with sulfur, lampblack and sawdust it becomes a black powder. Urea  
nitrate involves boiling a large quantity of urine down to one-tenth of its  
volume, mixing that with nitric acid and filtering for the urea nitrate  
crystals. Like saltpeter, these crystals are used in pipe bombs. Picric acid  
is used as explosive or as a booster for high explosives. Very easy thing to  
make is nitrogen tri-iodide â€” filter ammonia through iodine crystals and  
when the resulting brown sludge dries, it will explode on contact.
  Fertilizer mixed with fuel oil can be used in a pipe bomb.
  A 5-pound bag of flour used with a small amount of low explosive and an  
incendiary such as aluminum powder can create a dust explosion big enough to  
demolish a room.
  Swimming pool cleaner is used in pipe charges. Bleach, acetone and sulfuric  
acid combined can form a primary explosive. The explosive substance from a  
commercial detonating product can be mixed with acetone and mineral oil â€”  
then a book or newspaper is soaked in the solution, and dried, to create a  
powerful explosive that can be detonated with a blasting cap.
  Use incendiaries (firebombs) like a Molotov cocktail â€” a mixture of  
gasoline and oil in a corked bottle with a gasoline-soaked rug as a fuse.  
Similar is the fire bottle with mixture of gasoline and sulfuric acid.
  Light bulbs can be booby trapped with explosives. Letter and parcel bombs  
can be made with friction-sensitive tabs.


3.3   Coups


Coups, like war, are one of the most violent tools of special services and  
one could be artificially staged in a target country by â€œfeedingâ€ and  
â€œpushingâ€ the political opposition or by using VIP agents in the  
government. Most coups are â€œBureaucratic,â€ and entail mainly a change of  
leader, usually by person #2. That person might be the trigger or might be  
induced to practice â€œpassive sabotageâ€ and allow certain others to take  
over.  It is also an example of political engineering. Coups usually use the  
power of the existing government for its own takeover.

   Conditions for a successful coup:
-the army is supportive or at least neutral (a coup usually involves control  
of some active
-portion of the military while neutralizing the remainder of the armed  
services)
-the leader is out of town (vacation, visit abroad) or is ill
-a political or economic crisis.
-opponents fail to dislodge the plotters, allowing them to consolidate their  
position, obtain  the surrender or acquiescence of the populace, and claim  
legitimacy

3.3.1  Military Coup

Changing a civilian government to a military one, usually in developing  
countries.
Conditions: a long-term political and economic crisis that threatens national  
security and the unity of the country. Military chief(s) eventually let the  
people elect a civilian president and form a civilian government after  
â€œre-constructionâ€ of political and economic systems. They usually leave  
for themselves the right to control further political process. A good example  
is the attempt of anti-Nazi officers to assassinate Hitler in a coup. On July  
20, 1944, Colonel Claus Schenk von Stauffenberg brought a bomd-laden suitcase  
into a briefing room where Hitler was holding a meeting. The bomb exploded  
and several persons were killed. Hitler ws wounded, but his life was saved  
when the suitcase  was unwittingly moved away by  someone. Hitler was  
shielded from the blast by the conference table, leaving him with minor  
injuries. Subsequently about 5,000 people were arrested by the Gestapo and  
about 200,including Stauffenberg, were executed in connection with attempt,  
some on the very same day (which means that Himmler was involved and knew  
perfectly well about the coup).

3.3.2  â€œDemocraticâ€ Coup

A democratic coup would be a change of the government by the most aggressive  
(nationalistic) political party.
Conditions:
-artificial or actual government crisis
-mass anti-government propaganda
-organized â€œdemocraticâ€ movement all over the country
-provoked mass protests (10,000 particiapants and up) and civil disobedience  
actions
  To provoke a mass anti-government meeting you have to bring to the place  
well-trained group of agitators (bring as many as you can), and they will  
inevitably attract an equal number of curious persons who seek adventures and  
emotions, as well as those unhappy with the government (unemployed people,  
young and old, are usually very supportive). Arrange transportation of the  
participants to take them to meeting places in private or public vehicles.  
Design placards, flags and banners with different  radical slogans or key  
words; prepare flyers,pamphlets (with instructions for the participants),  
posters and signs (to make the concentration more noticeable). Itâ€™s good if  
you place a surveillance team on the top floors of the nearby buildings  -  
they will report any changes in the event; have also messengers to transmit  
your orders.Remember, if you clash with police and military and a  
participant(s) is being killed, the conflict inflames right away.
  Your people can also infiltrate  the spontaneous anti-government meeting and  
turn it ito a mass radical demonstration with fights and incidents. Key  
agitators (with security attached to them) have to be dispersed and stand by  
placards, signs, lampposts; they have to avoid places of disturbances, once  
they have provoked them.
-the leader of the meeting must be protected by a ring of bodyguards (they  
protect him from police or help him to escape).
-government buildings  must be â€œcoveredâ€ by a blockade
â€œDemocraticâ€ nationalistic coup in Ukraine (2004), so-called â€œorange  
revolutionâ€. Scenario: acts of civil disobedience, strkes, sit-ins (in the  
central square), agressive propaganda, mass demands to revote the 2004  
Ukrainian presidential election.

3.3.3 Revolution

A change of government and political and economic systems by political  
gangsters, usually fed, pushed, incited, and possibly funded and equipped by  
the secret services of another country. (Even the American Revolution would  
not have succeeded without French military advisors and financial support.)  
Government buildings are blockaded, the government isolated, all  
communications and transportation systems captured, government media closed,  
new government formed.
Conditions:
-political and economic crisis
-mass anti-government propaganda (in the army too)-provoked mass protests and  
civil disobedience actions -terror and urban guerillas

3.3.4 Self-coup

The current government assumes extraordinary powers not allowed by the  
legislation. It often happens when the president is democratically elected,  
but later takes control of the legislative and judicial powers.


    Chapter 4.  How to run agents.

   You can get tons of information through technical devices but no device can  
influence decisions made by leaders of other countries. Thatâ€™s why for  
thousands of years to come, a reliable agent will be the top tool of any  
special service, and their actual names have to be kept secret forever,  
please. A VIP agent (a top government employee) is a very rare thing and  
depends hugely on luck, because he can make or influence big political  
decisions. If he has access to the Oval Office, he can change the  
Presidentâ€™s plans and strategy, and can sabotage political, economic or  
military actions. When major presidential initiatives fail, time after time,  
one might wonder who is sabotaging whom.
  The most important thing a secret source can get is a reliable information  
on any possible attempt on the US Presidentâ€™s life, or concerning a  
decision of a foreign government to start a war against the United States. A  
professional agent is actually is both an instrument (to get information) and  
a weapon (to influence or neutralize people).

4.1 Categories:

A.â€œGarbageâ€ (60%), the â€œno trust â€œ category.
Recruitment is #1 priority for the officer and a part of his working plan and  
very often he has to recruit people who are not born agents. You can work  
with a nice guy, teach him, pay him, press him â€” and he still avoids any  
cooperation (busy, sick, on vacation, etc.). Itâ€™s hard to get rid of him  
because, first, you have to explain to your superiors why you recruited  
garbage and second, thereâ€™s a rule: if you want to be very smart and  
innovative, a reformer, who came here to start intelligence revolution and  
get rid
of a passive agent, recruit an active one first. Also, agents who work under  
pressure (blackmail) sooner or later slide into this category.
B. Good agents (30%), middle category. They adhere to the rules of discipline  
and keep the schedule (thatâ€™s very important even if thereâ€™s no  
information), deliver a lot of information that you have to verify through  
other sources, but donâ€™t show much initiative. Used for regular espionage:  
go and talk to the object, copy documents, make a recording, take pictures,  
listen, watch. You can trust them and check often, anyway.
C. Born agents (10%). You are very lucky if you can recruit such people. They  
betray their country with pleasure and sometimes do not even ask for money  
because itâ€™s in their character â€” they are looking for adventure or are  
not happy with their personal or professional life and seek improvement or  
revenge. They take risks, have good analytical abilities, good education,  
make (VIP) connections easily, â€œcrackâ€ any object, play the â€œgood  
guyâ€ whom you can trust. Sometimes they come to you as volunteers, and if  
they bring valuable stuff â€” recruit them.
D. Women. Women are a special category here, as elsewhere, and the rule is:  
if you canâ€™t recruit a real agent, you recruit a woman. Itâ€™s not  
professional to recruit a woman for a serious operation, but if you want to  
get to an important object, a woman can introduce you. OK, you can recruit a  
US Senatorâ€™s secretary or a typist from the Pentagon, but it will be on  
your conscience if she gets caught. Such cases entail a life sentence,  
usually â€” how would you feel? Besides, women often fall in love with their  
objects and tell them everything. Finally, a married woman is much bigger  
problem than a married ma

4.2 Recruitment

Recruit a small number of well-informed people.
Do not recruit:
- psychos
- volunteers (unless itâ€™s a â€œmoleâ€ or other government employee who  
brings you top secret information right away. In a counter-intelligence  
set-up, a â€œvolunteerâ€ will try to get information about you, telling the  
minimum about himself.)
- persons with low educational and intellectual level
- people under 30 or over 70, unless itâ€™s a VIP. (Did someone get Jim  
Baker? Dick Cheney?)
- mafia members
- people who are happy with their lives and careers
The best formula when you recruit is a mix of money and ideology  
(brainwashing). Itâ€™s not necessary to sign recruitment obligations â€”  
people take that as a blackmail tool. Itâ€™s enough if the fellow brings a  
good piece of information and get paid (make a video, anyway).

Recruitment Pyramid
Priority recruitment candidates in the USA:

President
The White House staff
The Cabinet and federal agencies
The US Congress
Big corporations
Big scientific institutions
Local politicians
VIP world (celebrities â€” big media, show biz, big sport)

4.2.1 Candidates for recruitment

1. All spies who work in the USA under legal â€œcoverâ€ as diplomats,  
reporters, scientists, businessmen, actors, artists, musicians, sportsmen  
have the legal right to make and develop any contacts and invite people to  
private parties; then they â€œtransferâ€ these contacts to professional  
recruiters. Any embassy can invite any politician to official and private  
parties and â€œworkâ€ with him there. Besides, all those people can invite  
prospective candidates to their countries or to other country to develop the  
contact; itâ€™s much easier to recruit abroad. And remember, any contact, any  
talk, any piece of biography is already information.
2. You can get information about candidates through other agents and through  
the media.
3. Itâ€™s useful to install listening devices in the government buildings or  
listen to the phones, and collect compromising information on politicians. I  
recommend listening to the phones all over the city, if itâ€™s the capital of  
the country.

The biggest mistake in FBI history was made by homosexual FBI Director Edgar  
Hoover. In 1971 Elvis Presley shook hands with President Nixon at the Oval  
Office, and was granted a private tour of FBI headquarters. There he  
volunteered as a secret source - Hoover said â€œnoâ€. Idiot.

4.2.2 Deciding if candidate is viable

    When an agent candidate appears, judgments are needed on four essential  
questions to decide if a potential operation makes sense, if the candidate is  
the right person for the operation, and if oneâ€™s own service can support  
the operation.
   Has he told you everything ? Enough information can ordinarily be obtained  
in one or two sessions with the candidate .  CIA idiots use polygraph â€“  
donâ€™t do it ! Does he have stayability ? This term combines two concepts  
â€“ his ability to maintain access to the counterintelligence target for the  
foreseeable future, and his psychological stamina under the constant (and  
often steadily increasing) pressure of the double agentâ€™s role. If he lacks  
stayability  he may still be useful, but the operation must then be planned  
for short range. Does the adversary trust him ? Indications of the adversary  
trust can be found in the level of the communications system given him, his  
length of service . If the opposition keeps the agent at armâ€™s length,  
there is little prospect that doubling him will yield significant returns. To  
decide between what the officer thinks the motive is and what the agent says  
is not easy, because agents act out of a wide variety of motivations,  
sometimes psychopathic ones like masochistic desire for punishment by both  
services. Other have financial, religious (thatâ€™s how Israelis recruit),  
political or vindictive motives. The last are often the best double agents:  
they get pleasure out of deceiving their colleagues.
  Its important to recognize signs of sociopathic personality disorder in  
potential double agent. Sociopaths are unusually calm and stable under stress  
but canâ€™t tolerate routine or boredom. They have above-average  
intelligence. They are good polyglots, sometimes in two or more languages.  
Their reliability as agents is largely determined by the extent to which the  
case officerâ€™s instructions coincide with what they consider their own best  
interests. They are naturally clandestine and enjoy secrecy and deception for  
its own sake. They do not form lasting and adult emotional relationships with  
other people because their attitude toward others is exploitative. They are  
skeptical and even cynical about the motives and abilities of others but have  
exaggerated notions about their own competence. They are ambitious in short  
sense only â€“ they want much and they want it now. They do not have patience  
to plod toward a distant reward.
  The candidate must be considered as a person and the operation as a  
potential. Possibilities which would otherwise be rejected out of hand can be  
accepted if the counterintelligence service is or will be in a position to  
obtain and maintain an independent view of both the double agent and the  
case. The estimate of the potential value of the operation must take into  
consideration whether the case  has political implications.

4.3  Working with secret sources.

"Golden" rules.

1. Do not tell the agent about problems and mistakes of the agency, about  
your personal problems, about other agents, about his own file and  
compromising information you have on him.
2. Donâ€™t show him any classified documents â€” you might provoke him to  
sell the information to somebody else.
3. Donâ€™t trust your agents too much; they can use you to compromise their  
personal enemies.
4. Never criticize the source â€”  be an adviser. Donâ€™t talk straight if he  
avoids cooperation or brings you garbage â€” just reduce or stop payments, or  
get rid of him.
5. You lose the agent if you donâ€™t pay him for a job well done, ask him to  
â€œproduceâ€ fake information (to show your bosses how much great espionage  
activity you have going on) or if you donâ€™t care about his personal  
security and his personal problems (health, career). And â€” never give  
poison to your agent for security reasons.

4.3.1 Questioning the source.
  This is of extreme importance â€” the right question brings you the right  
answer and top secret info. Give your agent a chance to tell and show you  
everything heâ€™s brought, no matter how chaotic the story might be or how  
ordinary the documents look. Donâ€™t make written notices. Donâ€™t bring  
written questions even if you are talking about some advanced technology â€”  
look and be professional. Donâ€™t let the agent analyze the information  
before he talks to you and donâ€™t let him bring it in a written form â€”  
itâ€™s usually not complete; he can lose it; or it may be stolen from him. If  
there are documents, he has to bring a microfilm. Ask questions â€” when?  
where? what happened? why? whatâ€™s going to happen next?
   After that you tell the story back to him and he adds details. At the end  
of the meeting give the agent another task and donâ€™t ask him to bring you  
â€œsomething,â€ because heâ€™ll bring you just that â€œsomethingâ€ and  
nothing else.
Remember, questioning is not interrogation; do not bring another officer to  
the meeting because it will look like cross interrogation.

4.3.2 Teaching the source
Teach your agent to:
- follow security rules while talking to people, working with the documents  
and especially meeting the officer (some foreign agencies practice open  
contacts with many people, hoping that the meeting with the agent wonâ€™t  
attract much attention â€” I donâ€™t recommend that)
- always stay calm in stressful situations
- always keep discipline and come in time
-  use analytic abilities working with people and documents â€” ask yourself  
as many questions as you can

4.3.3 Checking the source
You can never be sure you are not working with a â€œdouble agent,â€ even if  
he brings you top secret stuff. Besides, agents are human beings and they  
make mistakes â€” they forget about security, spend too much money, talk too  
much and ask extra questions; if arrested they may not play the hero but will  
tell everything. Anyway, you can check your source:
a. by fake arrest followed by severe interrogation.
b. through provocation (tell him you know about his â€œdouble gameâ€ and  
watch his behavior after the meeting (itâ€™s good to have a listening device  
or a camera in his house).
c. by making an analysis of all the information and documents he delivers and  
comparing it with information from other sources.
d. through other agents.
e. through your â€œmoleâ€ in counter-intelligence (if youâ€™re lucky).
f. through technical devices (reading the mail, listening to the phone,  
secret searching his house and office, watching him through hidden cameras,  
trying surveillance in the street).

4.3.4 Agent termination (one-way ticket)
It doesnâ€™t happen often but you have to know some special situations when  
you have to terminate the agent:
1. He knows too much (talks too much) and is ready to betray you.
2. VIP agent (politician) is under suspicion and you canâ€™t help him for  
political reasons (diplomatic, international scandal, etc.) â€” in such a  
case an accident could be staged. It happens that the agent is too close to  
President.
3. Agent was involved in special operations (murders) and is dangerous as a  
witness.
4. Agent is trying to blackmail you.
5. You need to press (blackmail) other agents.


Chapter 5 . FBI Helper

5.1 "Golden rules"

1. Donâ€™t die a hero - thatâ€™s bad planning, poor training and lack of  
experience; the dead man goes to a hall of shame and stupidity. Bad planning  
is an operational failure; once things have gone off track it is far more  
complicated to achieve the objective. Multi-step complex operations come from  
the fantasies of bureaucrats who watch too many movies. Keep it simple if you  
want to get it right.
2. Never provoke people to break the law - thatâ€™s not professional.
3. Always look for insider if itâ€™s about sophisticated operation (bank  
robbery, etc.).

5.2 Investigation

5.2.1 Stages:

- secure and examine carefully the crime scene (every person who enters the  
scene is a potential destroyer of physical evidence)
- record the scene (make photos, sketches, notes with detailed written  
description of the scene with the location of evidences recovered)
- collect physical evidences (blood, semen, saliva, hair, documents, drugs,  
weapons and explosives, poisonous substances, fingerprints, traces, soils and  
minerals, fiber) and package everything
- collect confessions and eyewitnesses accounts and then
- make a plan of investigation and correct it later
- research similar crimes and criminals involved
- make a model (profile) of the suspect
- analyze expertise data
- work with secret sources
- cooperate with other divisions (abroad, if needed)
- make arrest
- interrogate

        5.2.2   Arrest

In daytime arrest people discreetly â€” donâ€™t bring extra public  
irritation. Thereâ€™s a general rule: more arrests â€” less crime prevention  
(after being in jail people, engage in more sophisticated and secret criminal  
activity). After mass arrests at certain places (buildings) repeat the action  
in a day or two.

Procedure:

- chasing the object, block the area into circles (follow the plan for a  
certain area) and try to â€œpushâ€ him to a certain place where your team is  
waiting
- taking the object in the street: look around for his partner(s), who could  
shoot you from behind
- be on the alert if anybody tries to talk to you in the street â€” it could  
be an attempt to divert your attention
- arresting a crew, shoot and disarm any people with guns first
- never hesitate to shoot terrorists â€” some of them have mental problems  
and wonâ€™t think a second before shooting you
- arrest a dangerous object while heâ€™s relaxed (drugs, alcohol, sex, sleep)  
and donâ€™t let him kill himself, eliminate evidences or warn his partners.  
(Most people feel more relaxed when traveling abroad.) To take the object  
alive, scream, shoot over his head, use smoke and light grenades.
- camouflage your team (as ambulance workers, construction workers, vendors,  
etc.)
- if thereâ€™s a crowd around the object, shoot in the air and order  
everybody to lie downâ€” the object has no choice
- if the object is well armed and very dangerous (and you have intelligence  
information on that), you have to shoot him even in a very crowded area as  
you never know what heâ€™s going to do next â€” take hostages, shoot people  
or blow up a bomb (three wounded people is a better score than three hundred  
dead).

5.2.3   Interrogation

Interrogation is a conversational process of information gathering. The  
intent of interrogation is to control an individual so that he will either  
willingly supply the requested information or, if someone is an unwilling  
participant in the process, to make the person submit to the demands for  
information.

    Remember, people tend to:

-talk when they are under stress and respond to kindness and understanding.
-show deference when confronted by superior authority, This is culturally  
dependent, but in most areas of the world people are used to responding to  
questions from a variety of government and quasi-government officials.
-operate within a framework of personal and culturally derived values. People  
tend to respond positively to individuals who display the same value system  
and negatively when their core values are challenged.
-respond to physical and, more importantly, emotional self-interest.
-fail to apply or remember lessons they may have been taught regarding  
security if confronted with a disorganized or strange situation
-be more willing to discuss a topic about which the interrogator demonstrates  
identical or related experience or knowledge
-appreciate flattery and exoneration from guilt

  Procedure

   Before you interrogate the object, you have to gather some intelligence on  
him â€” examine his documents, read his files (if any), interrogate his  
partners or co-workers. Then you must establish and develop rapport, when the  
object reacts to your statements. Rapport may be developed by asking  
background questions about his family, friends, likes, dislikes; by offering  
incentives like coffee, alcohol, cigarettes, meals, or offers to send a  
letter home; by feigning experiences similar to those of the object; by  
showing concern for the object through the use of voice vitality and body  
language; by helping the source rationalize his guilt; by flattering the  
object. Be convincing and sincere, and youâ€™ll control the object for sure.  
( Hollywood â€œinsistsâ€ on using the â€œtruth serumâ€, but I can tell you  
one thing â€“ KGB never used it, a professional interrogater does not need  
it. I know about tests with Oxytocin, when 130 college students were randomly  
given a snort of  Oxytocin or placebo. Half   were then designated  
â€œinvestorsâ€ and were given money. They could keep or transfer some or   
all of the money to a student â€œtrusteeâ€, whom they did not know and could  
not see. The act of transferring money tripled its value, creating a big  
payoff for the trustee receiving it. That person could then keep it all or  
acknowledge the investorâ€™s trust by  returning some portion.  The investors  
getting Oxytocin on average transferred more money than those getting  
placebos, and twice as many â€“ 45% versus 21% - showed maximal trust and  
transferred it all. Oxytocin had no effect on how much money trustees shared  
back with their investors, suggesting that the hormone acted specifically to  
promote trust in situations where there was risk and uncertainty.  My  
conclusion is : you can you drugs like Oxytocin to improve and accelerate  
rapport, nothing else).
  After that you can start questioning using follow-up questions (they flow  
one from another based on the answer to previous questions), break-up  
questions (to â€œbreakâ€ the objectâ€™s concentration, if heâ€™s lying, by  
interrupting him all the time), repeated questions (to check the previous  
information), control questions (developed from information you believe to be  
true and based on information which has been recently confirmed and which is  
not likely to be changed. They are used to check the truthfulness of the  
objectâ€™s responses and should be mixed in with other questions throughout  
the interrogation), prepared questions developed in advance of interrogation  
to gain precise wording or the most desirable questioning sequence (they are  
used primarily for interrogations which are technical in nature), leading  
questions (to prompt the object to answer with the response he believes you  
wish to hear) to verify information.
  There are two types of questions that you should not use - these are  
compound and negative questions. Compound questions are questions which ask  
for at least two different pieces of information and they are, actually, two  
or more questions in one. They allow the object to avoid giving a complete  
answer. Negative questions are questions which are constructed with â€œno,â€  
â€œnot,â€ â€œnone.â€ They should be avoided because they may confuse the  
object and produce false information.
  Never allow the suspect to deny guilt. But itâ€™s good if he is involved in  
discussion and gives you the reason why he didnâ€™t or couldnâ€™t commit the  
crime, because you can prove heâ€™s wrong and move him towards  offering  
alternatives  and giving two choices for what happened; one more socially  
acceptable than other. The suspect is expected to choose the easier option  
but whichever alternative he chooses, guilt is admitted. Also, offer  
punishment alternatives and deals and lead the suspect to repeat the  
admission of guilt in front of witnesses.

Tricks:

a) â€œgood cop / bad copâ€
b)â€œstory under a storyâ€ (after intense interrogation the object tells a  
different story â€” which is not true, either)
c) â€œbombingâ€ with questions
d) pressure by not interrogating
e) â€œsilence makes your situation worseâ€ trick
f) â€œadmit one small episode and thatâ€™s itâ€ trick
g) â€œI help you â€” you help meâ€ trick
h)   â€œshiftâ€  - try to shift the blame away from the suspect to some  
other person or set of circumstances that  prompted the subject to commit the  
crime. That is, develop themes  containing reasons that will justify or  
excuse the crime. Themes may be developed or changed to find one to which the  
accused is most responsive.

  Remember, every object has a breaking point and there are some indicators  
that the object is near his breaking point or has already reached it. If the  
object leans forward and his facial expression indicates an interest in the  
proposal or is more hesitant in his argument, he is probably nearing the  
breaking point.

   If you are being interrogated,

your major objective is to buy time and use â€œeffective talking,â€  
disclosing information that is correct, but outdated or worthless.   I can  
add also a few words about  the polygraph (â€œlie detectorâ€) , which  
measures heart rate, blood pressure, respiration rate, and skin conductivity  
to detect emotional arousal, which in turn supposedly reflects lying versus  
truthfulness. The  polygraph does in fact measure sympathetic nervous system  
arousal, but scientific research shows that lying is only loosely related to  
anxiety and guilt. Some people become nervous when telling the truth, whereas  
others remain calm when deliberately lying. Actually, a polygraph cannot tell  
which emotion is being felt (nervousness, excitement, sexual arousal) or  
whether a response is due to emotional arousasl or something else, such as  
physical exercise. Although proponents contend that polygraph tests are 90%  
or more accurate, tests show error rates ranging between 25 and 75 percent.   
My own experience  says that you can successfully  lie to  polygraph. In  
1987, while at  KGB Andropov Intelligence Institute, I was tested by â€œlie  
detectorâ€, and I failed the first set of questions, like :â€ Have you ever  
cheated on your wife?â€ or  â€œDo you like prostitutes?â€. Then I relaxed  
for half an hour watching  other students going through the procedure, and  
took the test again â€“ this time I tried to stay absolutely indifferent  and  
â€œprogrammedâ€ to lie. I won . I think, the best thing  is to use â€œguilty  
knowledgeâ€ questions to make the polygraph reliable â€“ that is, questions  
based on specific information that only a guilty person would know ( such as  
the place where the object (a â€œmoleâ€) had a â€œbrush contactâ€ with  
intelligence officer) â€“ the idea is that guilty person would recognize  
these specific cues and respond in a different way than an innocent person.


5.2  The Mafia

5.2.1 Levels:
1.  Lower: drugs, weapons, racketeering, money laundering and other regular  
criminal activity
2.  Middle: involvement in economy (big banks and corporations) and politics
3.  Upper: government infiltration

5.2.2 Rules:
- help your brother no matter what
- revenge is inescapable
- obey orders and keep silence, order is a trust
- minimum membership with maximum profit
- leave no evidences (no papers),
- donâ€™t lie, steal, or cheat
- thereâ€™s no justice but mafia justice
- live and die together

5.2.3  Action

  The basic principle  is a total secrecy of structure, methods, operations,  
names and banking accounts. The most powerful tool is an exchange of favors.  
The Mafia covers any country with a chain of connections, creating a perfect  
terrain for total corruption. The first row of the Mafiaâ€™s best friends are  
corrupted police and FBI officers, second row â€” local and federal  
politicians. The Mafia cultivates mutual help, protects better than a law and  
thatâ€™s why mafia laws are primary for the members of a family. Members get  
help from the family automatically and itâ€™s a very strong incentive. The  
Mafia launches political murders only if certain politicians seriously offend  
its big financial interests. Have you noticed that every presidential  
candidate is ready to fight crime but nobody is talking about fighting the  
Mafia? You canâ€™t win, but you can keep the Mafia under control. And you  
have to control the Mafia because it penetrates politics, and political  
psychology (behavior) could be substituted by a criminal psychology, and that  
will be the end of America.
  I have met  Italian mafia members because they were racketeering a huge  
bakery in Boro Park, Brooklyn, where my friends worked, and because I lived  
in Italian area of Brooklyn â€“ Bensonhurst. A very polite man about 40 used  
to come to the bakery every Thursday and even talked to the workers while  
waiting for his  weekly envelope with the money. In Bensonhurst I lived in  
private house owned by Italians, who didnâ€™t talk much, but showed enough  
respect  to John Gotti, the Gambino crime family boss, who died in prison in  
2002.
  I have also met Russian mafia members both in Russia and in the United  
States and know them very well. I canâ€™t agree with FBI and police experts  
who donâ€™t see much threat from those people. First, they donâ€™t hesitate  
to kill, even if itâ€™s a cop. Second, they are not afraid of American  
prisons and even have people who stay in jail for years to â€œteachâ€ young  
generation of gangsters. Third, they donâ€™t mix with other ethnic groups  
(for security reasons). Fourth, they usually look for big illegal business  
opportunities, like serious money laundering or drugs, weapons and diamonds  
trafficking. (When it comes to drugs, it has to be wholesale only â€”  
Russians donâ€™t sell drugs on American streets.)
â€œFive [Italian] Familiesâ€  based in New York  City  control organized  
crime activities all over America. Their criminal interests include labor  
racketeering, narcotics, pornography, gambling, loansharking, extortion,  
solid and waste dumping violations, hijacking, pier thefts and fencing. These  
families are: Genovese  Family (the most powerful, secretive and disciplined  
crime family in USA),Gambino Family, Bonanno Family, Lucchese Family and  
Colombo Family.
Other families ( altogether there are about 3,000 Italian gangsters in USA)  
include:
DeCavalcante family ( New Jersey), small and less powerful.
â€œChicago Outfitâ€ (Chicago) controls Chicago, runs many of the Las Vegas  
gambling establishments, is almost equal in power with the New York Families.
Los Angeles family, controls Hollywood; due to influx of Hispanic and  
African-American crime gangs in California the mafia has very little control  
over crime, although they still operate and run rackets across the town.
â€œThe Partnershipâ€ (Detroit).
â€œThe Armâ€ (Buffalo).
St. Louis family.
LaRocca family.
Marcello family.
Lanza family.
â€œRussianâ€ (former Soviet) mafia organizations in USA
Kikalishvili, Fineberg, Chechnya, Dagestan, â€œLubertsyâ€, Mazutkin,  
Baklanov, Kazanâ€™, Brandvein, Sorkin, Rudyak, Brook, Ibragimov, Ittayev,  
Efros, Sogomonyan, Arakelyan, Brikyan, â€œVilnusâ€, â€œVorkutaâ€,  
â€œSolntsevoâ€.


5.2.4 FBI tricks:
a)  â€œhouse trapâ€: Spread information that a certain place is packed with  
money or drugs, and prepare an ambush.
b)  advertise discreetly (through your sources) some semi-legal or illegal  
business. People who are willing to get involved in dubious operations will  
â€œflyâ€ to you (change cities).
c)  encourage wars between mafia families.
d)  â€œcar trapâ€: Install a video camera in an expensive car and leave it  
in the â€œbadâ€ area. A thief gets in a car and â€¦ the trap is closed.

Have some fun, guess who this is: blue jeans, blue baseball jacket, work  
boots, silver chain (with a badge under T-shirt), short haircut, clean-shaved  
face, â€œwalkie-talkie,â€ Pepsi and cheap cookies, walks like a President of  
the United States and looks straight into your eyes like a pastor. (NYPD  
undercover).

5.3 How to Manage Civil Disturbance

  The FBI and the police have to join forces in response to any serious tip  
about a â€œplanned crowd,â€ one which is being organized to assemble at the  
call of a leader and step forward with serious political demands, and is  
ready to create a civil disturbance. Civil disturbance arises when a crowd  
gathers to air grievances on issues and transfers its anger from the issues  
to the people dealing with the issues, swells uncontrollably as curious  
bystanders and sympathetic onlookers join forces with the activists or  
protectors, is incited to irrational action by skillful agitators, adopts  
irrational behavior and becomes a mob. And if the crowd comes to encompass  
two or more groups with opposing views, they become engaged in a violent  
confrontation.
  The crowd is the engine and the basic human element of a civil disturbance  
action. When blocked from expressing its emotions in one direction, a  
crowdâ€™s hostility often is, or can be, re-directed elsewhere. In a civil  
disturbance environment, any crowd can be a threat to law and order because  
it is open to manipulation. Leadership has a profound effect on the intensity  
and direction of the crowd behavior. In many crowd situations, the members  
become frustrated by confusion and uncertainty and they want to be directed.  
The first person to give clear orders in an authoritative manner is likely to  
be followed. A skillful agitator can increase a crowdâ€™s capacity for  
violence and direct a crowdâ€™s aggression toward any target included in his  
statement (he can also use the media to reach millions of people and incite  
them to unlawful acts, or even a revolution, without having a direct personal  
contact). On the other hand, an experienced leader is also able to calm down  
a crowd and avoid a social explosion.A crowd is affected by negative emotions  
and panic, which can occur during a civil disturbance when people think or  
feel danger is so close at hand that the only course of action is to flee;  
when they think the escape routes are limited or that only one escape route  
exists; think the limited routes are blocked; believe an escape route is open  
after it was blocked and in trying to force a way to the exit, cause those in  
front to be crushed, smothered, or trampled; are not able to disperse quickly  
after being exposed to riot agents and begin to believe their lives are at  
risk.


    Chapter 6. Spies Identification.


6.1 "Moles"

A â€œmoleâ€ is a spy inside the government, recruited or â€œinstalledâ€  
most often within the special services, by an outside government/agency. The  
3 most dangerous things a â€œmoleâ€ can do:
1. Calculate Presidentâ€™s plans and decisions judging by information heâ€™s  
asking for.
2. Manipulate information being sent to President, and thus influence global  
political decisions
3. Paralyze to some extent the government (if heâ€™s CIA or FBI Director)

6.1.1 How the "mole' sees himself

   Special, even unique. Deserving. His situation (career and money) is not  
satisfactory. No other (easier) option (than to engage in espionage. Not a  
bad person. Espionage isnâ€™t very wrong â€“ many people
worldwide do it. His performance in his government job is separate from  
espionage; espionage does not discount his contribution in the workplace.  
Security procedures do not  really) apply to him.
  He sees his situation in a context in which he faces continually narrowing  
options, until espionage seems reasonable. He sees espionage as  
â€œvictimlessâ€ ( government isnâ€™t a victim!) crime. Once he considers  
espionage, he figures out how he might do it. These are mutually reinforcing,  
often simultaneous events. He finds thatâ€™s itâ€™s easy to go around  
security safeguards. He belittles the security system, feeling that if the  
information was really important, espionage would be hard to do (the  
information would be better protected). He is anxious on initial hostile  
intelligence service contact. In the course of long term activity â€œmoleâ€  
can reconsider his involvement. Sometimes he considers telling authorities  
everything. Those wanting to reverse their role arenâ€™t confessing,  
theyâ€™re negotiating. Those who are â€œstressed outâ€ want to confess.  
Neither wants punishment, both attempt to minimize or avoid punishment.

   6.1.2  Methods to detect a â€œmole"

A. Use index cards (special file) â€” never use computers to save this  
information!
Prepare a file on each officer and mark there the signs of a â€œmoleâ€ â€”  
has or spends too much money, asks too many extra questions; uses  
professional skills to check for physical and technical surveillance; has  
discreet contacts with foreigners; discreet copying of top secret documents;  
attempts to get a job in most secret departments; talks with close friends  
and family members about the possibility of making money as a â€œmoleâ€;  
behavior deviations â€” extra suspiciousness, excitement, depression, drugs  
or alcohol addiction. Three signs are enough to start an investigation â€”  
the â€œtriangulationâ€ principle.
B. Use provocation. If a prospective â€œmoleâ€ is looking for a contact with  
the enemy and is ready to betray, and you have exact information, organize  
such a â€œmeetingâ€ for him. Do not arrest the person right away â€” play  
along, as he may give you connections to other people who are ready to  
betray. Thereâ€™s one more provocation method: you supply the suspects with  
â€œhighly classified informationâ€ and just watch what they do.
C. Use â€œfilterâ€ or â€œnarrowing the circle.â€ Include all the officers  
you suspect in a â€œcircleâ€ and narrow it until one name is left as the  
most likely suspect.
D. Make a â€œmodelâ€ of a â€œmole,â€ judging by information you have on  
him.
E. Recruit an insider. Recruit a â€œmoleâ€ inside your enemyâ€™s  
intelligence service and heâ€™ll help you to find the one inside yours  
(itâ€™s called â€œgrabbing the other end of a threadâ€).
F. Donâ€™t trust anybody.

6.1.3  What to Do If You Detect a â€œMoleâ€

- assess the damage
- restrict his access to classified information and start â€œfeedingâ€ him  
with fake data
- stop all operations he was involved in and create the illusion they are  
still in progress
- bring home officers and agents who work abroad and had contacts with him  
and those to whose files he had access
- start 24/7 surveillance if youâ€™ve decided to play the game and look into  
his contacts
- arrest the â€œmoleâ€ discreetly (if you want to continue the game)

Effective methods to prevent treason do not exist.

6.1.4 How to Cover Your â€œMoleâ€

  There are special methods to cover your own â€œmoleâ€ and a â€œswitchâ€ is  
the most effective â€” itâ€™s when you â€œswitchâ€ counterintelligence to  
other, innocent persons who work with the â€œmole.â€ You can try information  
â€œleaksâ€ through a â€œdouble agentâ€ â€” it looks like you receive top  
secret information through another traitor or by breaking the electronic  
security systems. Or you can try information â€œleakâ€ through publications  
in big newspapers â€” it looks like information is not secret and is known to  
many people or thereâ€™s another â€œmole.â€
  By the way, was John Deutch, Bill Clintonâ€™s CIA Director, a Russian  
â€œmoleâ€ covered by the US President? Let's see.

  John Deutch was born in Belgium to a Russian father and he was the only  
Russian CIA Director. His biography is very impressive. He graduated from  
Amherst College (B.A. in history and economics) and earned a B.S. in chemical  
engineering and Ph.D. in physical chemistry from Massachusetts Institute of  
Technology (MIT), where the KGB loves to recruit future scientists. He served  
in the following professional positions.
1970-1977 MIT Chairman of the Chemistry Department Dean of Science and  
provost
1977-1980 The US Department of Energy: Director of Energy Research
Acting Assistant Secretary for Energy Technology
Under Secretary
1980-1981 Presidentâ€™s Nuclear Safety Oversight Commission
1983 Presidentâ€™s Commission on Strategic Forces
1985-1989 The White House Science Council
1990-1993 The Presidentâ€™s Intelligence Advisory Board
1993-1994 Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Technology
Deputy Defense Secretary
1995-1996 Director of Central Intelligence
1996 The Presidentâ€™s Commission on Aviation Safety and Security
1998-1999 Chairman of the Commission to Assess the Organization of the  
Federal Government to Combat the Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction
Since 2000 â€” MIT Professor and Director for Citigroup. Awarded Public  
Service Medals from the following Departments: State, Energy, Defense, Army,  
Navy, Air Force, Coast Guard plus Central Intelligence Distinguished Medal  
and the Intelligence Community Distinguished Intelligence  Medal.

  John Deutch was appointed Director of Central Intelligence (DCI) by  
President Clinton and stayed in Langley for a short period of time, from May  
10, 1995 to December 14, 1996. My professional opinion is: John Deutch, a  
former Russian DCI, is a Russian â€œmole,â€ and heâ€™s not been arrested  
because President Clinton obstructed the investigation and pardoned this  
enemy of state in 2001.

Three signs are enough to triangulate a â€œmoleâ€ and here they are for Mr.  
Deutch:

1. Two days after Deutch retired from the CIA, on December 16, 1996,  
technical personnel discovered at his house highly classified information  
stored on his unclassified computer, loaded from his agency computer. He  
refused to explain why he violated strict security rules.
First, a normal Director of Central Intelligence doesnâ€™t need highly  
classified data on his home computer, because he is a bureaucrat, not an  
analyst.
Second, here we have a trick â€” the Internet-connected computer is  
accessible by anyone with some technical knowledge and you donâ€™t have to  
send anything â€” the Russians will read secret information right from your  
home computer. Simple.
2. In 1997 the CIA began a formal security investigation. It was determined  
that his computer was often connected to the Internet with no security, and  
that Deutch was known to leave memory cards with classified data lying in his  
car. Deutch used his influence to stop further any investigation and the CIA  
took no action until 1999, when it suspended his security clearances. He  
admitted finally the security breach and merely apologized.
3. In 1999 the Defense Department started its own investigation, and it  
appeared that in 1993 Deutch, as Defense Undersecretary, used unsecured  
computers at home and his America Online (!) account to access classified  
defense information. As Deputy Defense Secretary, he declined departmental  
requests in 1994 to allow security systems to be installed in his residence.
4. In 2000 Senator Charles Grassley asked the Justice Department to look into  
the case. There was no investigation.
5. In 2001 President Clinton pardoned Deutch. There were no comments.

Now, the question is: why is he still in the US if heâ€™s a â€œmoleâ€ under  
suspicion? I see only one explanation - he has a very powerful friend who can  
give orders to Attorney General and Secretary of Defense.

P.S. Professor Deutch is still at the Department of Chemistry, MIT. In March  
2006 I asked him for an interview. As far as I know, heâ€™s still pondering  
that request.

6.1.5  KGB "moles" inside CIA

Aldrich Ames

   Aldrich Ames, b. 1941, began working for CIA in 1962. In 1969, on his first  
assignment as a case officer , he was stationed in Ankara, Turkey, where his  
to was to target Soviet intelligence officers for recruitment. When assigned  
to the US Embassy to Mexico in 1983, he committed adultery with Rosario  
Dupuy, an employee of the Colombian Embassy to Mexico. Upon his return to the  
States, he began divorce proceedings against his wife, ho had the upper hand  
in taking the joint assets of their marriage as the divorce was on the  
grounds of unfaithfulness. He also began cohabitation with Rosario, who was  
spending a lot of his money, as she was a shopaholic. The financial pressure  
of is divorce and Rosarioâ€™s high living made Ames think of a way to figure  
out how to make big money. Nobody paid attention that he was a chronic  
alcoholic. In 1985 he walked into the Soviet Embassy in Washington, D.C. and  
turned himself into KGB â€œmoleâ€.
  Ames was assigned to the CIAâ€™s Europe Division/Counterintelligence branch,  
where he was responsible for directing the analysis of KGB intelligence  
operations. The information Ames provided led to the execution of at least 10  
U.S. secret sources, mostly KGB officers. KGB paid Ames $4.6 million, and  
with that money he bought a new  $60,000 Jaguar (that was his official salary  
), jewelry, designer clothing and a house in Northern Virginia valued  
$500,000 and paid in cash; his wifeâ€™s monthly phone bills exceeded $6,000.  
In 1986 and in 1991, Ames passed  two polygraph screening examinations. (  
Markus Wolf, the retired director of Stasiâ€™s foreign intelligence  
directorate, claimed in is memoirs that Gardner Hathaway, the CIA  
counterintelligence director, approached him in 1990 with an offer of  
cosmetic surgery, lavish compensation, and a new life  in USA if he were to  
defect and help CIA to identify the â€œmoleâ€. Wolf declined the offer, as  
he did not have sufficient guarantees that the CIA would not betray him).He  
was arrested in 1994 by FBI. Ames and his wife liquidated about $2.5 million  
of the KGB money (they still have $2.1 million in a Russian bank account).

Robert Hanssen

   Robert Hanssen (born 1944) joined FBI in 1976. He was compiling a database  
of Soviet intelligence, and already in 1979 he approached GRU (Soviet  
military intelligence) and offered his services. He betrayed a very important  
CIA source
â€œDmitriy Polyakov (â€œTopohatâ€), GRU general ( he became a â€œmoleâ€,  
because he was denied to take his seriously ill son to a hospital in New  
York, where Polykov was with the Soviet delegation to UNO; his son  soon died  
as a result of illness.Polyakov was executed in 1988).
  In 1981 his wife caught him in the basement writing a letter to Russians.  
Hanssen said he got $30,000 from Russians, but gave them false intelligence  
information; he stopped his activity . In 1983 he was transferred to the  
Soviet analytical unit, which was directly responsible for capturing Soviet  
spies in the U.S., and in two years resumed cooperation, this time â€“ with  
KGB, giving the names of 3 KGB â€œmolesâ€, Boris Yuzhin (served 6 years in  
jail), Valeriy Marrtrynov and Sergei Motorin (both executed). In 1987 he was  
tasked with making a study of all past penetrations or rumored penetrations  
of the FBI in order to find a â€œmoleâ€ who betrayed Russian â€œmolesâ€  
(!).
  Hanssen and his KGB case officers did not use sophisticated communication  
devices, but relied on mail, the telephone, signal sites and dead drops. He  
passed 26 diskettes to KGB and got 12 diskettes from them; he sent 27  
letters, loaded 22 packages in dead drops and had two phone conversations.   
KGB got information on MASINT (Measurement and Signature Intelligence) and  
FBI Double Agent Program with complete list of agents. Each time a meeting  
outside the United States was raised, Hanssen rejected it. He told KGB that  
foreign travel was a tipoff to counterintelligence of possible espionage  
activity. He was concerned about security and used to check the FBIâ€™s  
Automated Case Support System (ACS) to determine if any of his activities  
came to the Bureauâ€™s attention.
  In 1990 Hanssenâ€™s brother-in-law Marc Wauck, who was also an FBI employee,  
reported to the Bureau, that Hanssen should be investigated for espionage  
after Marcâ€™s sister found a pile of cash in Hanssenâ€™s dresser. Besides,  
once Hanssenn was talking to his wife about retiring in Poland, then under  
Soviet domination. Wauk spoke to his supervisor, who took no action.
  He stopped cooperation in 1991 with Soviet Union collapse, but in 1993 he  
approached GRU again. He went in person to the Russian embassy and tried to  
talk to a GRU officer in the embassyâ€™s parking garage; he identified  
himself as â€œRamon Garciaâ€, a â€œdisaffected FBI agentâ€ and offered his  
services. The Russian officer got into the car and drove off. Russians then  
filed an official protest with the State Department, believing the man was a  
double agent. Despite showing his face, giving away his code name and  
revealing he was FBI, Hanssen escaped arrest (he resumed cooperation with SVR  
in 1999). Hanssen expressed interest in a transfer to the new National  
Counterintelligence Center, but when a superior told him he had to take a lie  
detector test to join, he changed his mind.
  In 1994, after Aldrich Ames was arrested, FBI started â€œmoleâ€-hunting  
inside the Bureau. They found another guy, CIA Harold Nicholson, Hanssen  
escaped detection. In 1996, convicted FBI â€œmoleâ€ Earl Pitts told the  
Bureau he suspected Robert Hanssen of being a spy because he had broken into  
another agentâ€™s computer. No action was taken. FBI decided then to buy the  
â€œmoleâ€™sâ€ identity. They found a Russian businessman and a former KGB  
agent, whose identity remains classified. American company invited him for  
business meeting. He came to New York and FBI offered $7 million for  
information. The Russian said he didnâ€™t know the name, but he had the  
actual KGB/SVR file, which covered the â€œmoleâ€™sâ€ correspondence with KGB  
in 1985-1991 and included a tape recording of â€œRamon Garciaâ€. In November  
2000, FBI obtained the file and identified Hanssen. They placed him under  
24/7 surveillance and searched his car twice; to kept him out of sensitive  
data he was given a job supervising FBI computer security. Hanssen realized  
that something was wrong, but it didnâ€™t stop from another drop. He was  
arrested at his dead drop place in 2001 and sentenced to life in prison  
without parole. He got $1.4 million in cash and diamonds for his job.

6.2  Identifying Spies

If a spy is an intelligence officer working abroad under â€œcoverâ€  
(diplomat, businessman, reporter) you can identify him by:
- following the careers of all diplomats who work at your enemyâ€™s embassies  
all over the world
- recruiting a â€œmoleâ€ inside the intelligence service (or inside the  
station)
- setting up your agent for recruitment by the enemyâ€™s station
- watching foreigners who try to make discreet contacts with native citizens  
with access to secrets
- making a model of a spy (professional behavior, attempts to detect  
surveillance, attempts to recruit sources or just get any classified  
information during normal meetings, â€œthrowing awayâ€ money trying to get  
access to government employees, military and scientific circles)
- using secret surveillance and listening devices inside the station and  
practicing secret searches

If a spy is an intelligence officer working in your country under â€œcoverâ€  
of a native citizen (or he is recruited by a native citizen) you identify him  
by making a model (contacts with identified spies â€” thatâ€™s often the only  
sign which points out a spy, and thatâ€™s why surveillance is very important  
in getting information from a â€œmoleâ€).


Chapter 7. Strategies.

Every operation demands a set of original methods, especially if we are  
talking about strategic intelligence. I give you a few examples.

1. â€œDominoâ€ or â€œchain reaction.â€ A coup, revolution or civil war in  
one country provokes the same actions in other countries (neighbors).
2. â€œFalse flagâ€. The planned, but never executed, 1962  Operation  
Northwoods plot by the U.S. administration for a war with Cuba  involved  
scenarios such as  hijacking a passenger plane and blaming it on Cuba.
3. â€œSlidingâ€ strategy. Transformation of a secret operation into an open  
one: support of illegal opposition/coup.
4. â€œRestriction.â€ You damage (limit) international and economic  
connections (projects) of the enemy.
5. â€œMonopoly.â€ Special operation to keep countryâ€™s monopoly or status  
as economic leader or special (nuclear) holder, or high tech producer.  
Includes actions to restrict the attempts of other countries to get strategic  
raw materials and modern weapons and technologies.
6. â€œReverse effect.â€ The government declares a certain goal and launches  
a military or special operation, but the result is something quite different,  
possibly opposite. Examples: instead of separating (ethnic) group â€œAâ€  
from group â€œBâ€ both of them are being exterminated; instead of peace and  
democracy in a certain region, power is being concentrated in one group and  
the opposition is being exterminated.
7. â€œClash.â€ You â€œclashâ€ the government and opposition of a target  
country and support civil war until the country is ruined and you get it for  
free.
8. â€œSalami-slice strategyâ€. Itâ€™s a process of threats and alliances  
used to overcome opposition. It includes the creation of several factions  
within the opposing political party, and then dismantling that party  from  
inside, without causing the â€œslicedâ€ sides to protest.
9. â€œPositive shock.â€ A domestic operation; to save the government during  
a crisis, special service provokes artificial civil conflict or sabotage,  
imitation (terror), and the government takes care of the â€œproblem.â€
10. â€œControlled crisis exportâ€ (see â€œForeign Policyâ€)
11. â€œSanitation border.â€ â€œFencingâ€ the target country by enemies  
(neighbors).
12. â€œAlibi.â€ You build a â€œchainâ€ of evidence (witnesses) and move the  
investigation to a dead end.
13. â€œPassive sabotage.â€ A very effective strategy used to cover up a  
major action like the assassination of a President or the destruction of  
several office towers. You just â€œdo not see the bad guysâ€ who are going  
to kill the President or blow up the city. In any case you win â€” the  
perpetrators are not sure you are watching them; you can arrest them if the  
object survives or liquidate them once the object is dead. You donâ€™t need a  
big conspiracy, you just give the order to ignore certain people until their  
plan materializes.
14. â€œSpecial tour.â€ You help the target country to â€œbuild democratic  
institutionsâ€ (the government and local administrations) by sending  
official crews to help. Actually, they rule the country and thatâ€™s a  
â€œhidden occupation.â€
15. â€œMask.â€ You mask your actual global plans (reforms) by another big  
action (war).

Other Strategies.  Breaking Up the USSR

   As an example, we can look at the strategies that were used to break up the  
USSR. This was political warfare on unprecedented scale, which means very  
aggressive use of political tools to achieve national objectives. It means a  
constant policy of taking political actions against the vital interests of  
another power. External strategies that were used to destroy the USSR  
included: economic exhaustion by the arms race, dollar intervention,  
prohibition to sell high-tech equipment to Soviet Union (official explanation  
â€” they could be used for military purposes; reality â€” they could be used  
to boost economic production), incentives to go for â€œdead endâ€ economic  
projects, induced to engage in a senseless war against Afghanistan,  
aggressive â€œanti-communistâ€ propaganda. Internal strategies used to  
destroy Soviet Union included: incentives and provocations (through local  
media and opposition parties) of national, religious and social conflicts;  
inducement into military conversion programs; encouragement of the  
disintegration of the Soviet republics under the appeal of illusory calls to  
undefined values like â€œdemocracy,â€ â€œself-determination,â€ and  
â€œfreedom,â€ instigation of corruption within the Kremlin; support of  
Soviet leader Gorbachevâ€™s utopian to â€œplantâ€ democracy in the USSR. As  
you understand by now, planned crowds etc. were also used extensively to  
force the governmentâ€™s hand.


Chapter 8 . President's security.


The estimated cost of protecting the President, Vice President and their  
families alone is $356 million/year.  Since 1994 presidents have been  
entitled to Secret Service protection for 10 years after finishing their  
terms of office (previously they were protected for life,which continues to  
be the case for presidents who served before 1997).

â€œI guess thereâ€™s always the possibility [of assassination], but that is  
what the Secret Service is for.â€ President John Kennedy
â€œTrained pigs.â€ â€Stay ten yards away at all times.â€ â€If you want to  
remain on this detail, get your  ass over here and grab those bags!â€  First  
Lady Hillary Clinton on the Secret Service.

Four US Presidents have been killed:

1. Abraham Lincoln.
On April 14, 1865 during a performance of â€œOur American Cousinâ€ at  
Fordâ€™s Theatre, John Booth killed Abraham Lincoln by shooting him in the  
back of the head. Leaping from the balcony to the stage, he broke his leg  
â€”but escaped. Federal troops found him hiding in a barn in Virginia, where  
they shot and killed him.
2. James Garfield.
On July 2, 1881 Charles Guiteau, who wanted to work for the President but  
wasnâ€™t accepted, shot James Garfield in the back at Union Station in  
Washington, DC. Garfield died eighty days later. Refusing to plead not guilty  
by reason of insanity, Guiteau was tried for murder, found guilty and hanged.
3. William McKinley.
On September 6, 1901 anarchist Leon Czolgosz shot William McKinley twice  
during a reception at the Pan-American Exposition in Buffalo, New York. He  
had concealed his revolver in a bandage and fired from only two feet away.  
McKinley died a week later from infection in one of the wounds. His killer  
confessed that he wanted to change the government; he was executed.
The next year, the Secret Service assumed full-time responsibility for  
protection of the President.
4. John F. Kennedy.
On November 22, 1963 JFK was assassinated in Dallas, Texas while campaigning,  
allegedly by Lee Harvey Oswald (see later chapters).

6  US presidents were nearly killed:

1. Andrew Jackson.
On January 30, 1835 President Jackson went to the US Capitol to attend the  
funeral services of Congressman Davis. As the President filed past the casket  
and descended to the Capitol rotunda, Richard Lawrence, an unemployed house  
painter, fired at him point blank but a bullet failed to discharge from the  
gun barrel. Then Lawrence drew a second pistol and fired again, and again the  
gun failed to fire. A jury found Lawrence not guilty on grounds of insanity.
2. Harry Truman.
On November 1, 1950 two Puerto Rican nationalists, Oscar Collazo and Oriselio  
Torresola, attempted to assassinate President Truman, who was staying at the  
time in Blair House, across the street from the White House, due to White  
House renovations. They approached the house and tried to shoot their way  
inside, but were killed by White House police officers. President Truman was  
taking a nap upstairs.
3. Richard Nixon.
On February 22, 1974 Samuel Byck, an unemployed tire salesman with mental  
problems, attempted to hijack a plane from Baltimore-Washington International  
Airport. He intended to crash it into the White House hoping to kill the  
President. He stole a revolver from a friend and made a bomb out of 2 gallon  
jugs of gasoline and an igniter. He went to the airport, killed a police  
officer there, stormed aboard the plane and killed 2 pilots after they told  
him they couldnâ€™t take off until the wheel blocks were removed. Eventually,  
after Byck was shot and wounded by police officers, he committed suicide by  
shooting himself in the head.
4. Gerald Ford (two attempts).
On September 5, 1975, Lynette From, a follower of a cult leader Charles  
Manson, pointed a handgun at President Ford as he was shaking hands with  
well-wishers at Sacramentoâ€™s Capitol Park. The weapon was loaded with 4  
bullets but none was in the firing chamber. She was arrested and convicted of  
attempted assassination; sheâ€™s serving life in prison.
On September 22, 1975 Sara Moore tried to assassinate President Ford outside  
the St. Francis Hotel in San Francisco. A psycho with revolutionary ideas she  
was once recruited by the FBI but her cover was blown. Then, in order to  
prove herself with her radical friends, she attempted to shoot Ford.
The President was saved by bystander Oliver Sipple, a former Marine Corps  
member who fought in Vietnam and was honorably discharged. He wrestled Sara  
Moore and grabbed the gun. She fired one shot which did not hit the  
President. Ford wrote a thank-you note to Sipple three days later, but never  
invited him to the White House. There is speculation that he was treated  
shabbily because he was alleged to be homosexual, and this severely affected  
his family.
5. Ronald Reagan.
On March 30, 1981 John Hinckley Jr. shot President Reagan, his Press  
Secretary James Brady, Secret Service agent Tim McCarthy and police officer  
Thomas Delehanty while they were leaving the Hilton Hotel in Washington, DC.  
Hinckley, a loser from a family of oil company owners, was obsessed with  
actress Jodi Foster, stalking her and developing ploys to get her attention,  
including by assassinating the US President. President Reagan was not hit  
directly but he was wounded in the chest on a ricochet â€” a stray bullet  
that bounced back from the bulletproof glass of the Presidential limousine  
hit him in the chest. Hinckley didnâ€™t attempt to flee and was arrested at  
the scene. At the trial he was found guilty by reason of insanity and  
confined at St. Elizabethâ€™s Hospital in Washington, DC.
6. George W. Bush.
On May 5, 2005 Vladimir Arutunyan threw a grenade at George W. Bush who was  
greeting a crowd (of about 15,000) on Freedom Square, Tbilisi, Georgia (a  
former Soviet republic) during an official visit. The grenade fell about 100  
feet away from the tribune where the President was standing, but did not  
detonate. Early in the morning, before the US President appeared, thousands  
of local residents broke through the barriers and metal detectors and made  
their way to the cityâ€™s central square waiting for Bush. Special agents and  
police officers of Georgia could not keep the crowd back, so they removed the  
barriers and let the people flow in without any inspection (!!). Arutunyan  
was arrested two months later and sentenced to life in 2006.

Managing the Secret Service

  The top priority in protecting the Presidentâ€™s life must be organized and  
complete intelligence. Any information from any person from any country  
concerning the Presidentâ€™s personal security has to be immediately  
analyzed, and immediate action has to be performed. This is the first  
priority for intelligence and counter-intelligence agencies and police as  
well as the Secret Service. If the system is organized properly, nobody could  
even get in a position to try to shoot. Of course, the safest thing is to  
restrict the Presidentâ€™s routes to government buildings only; but he has to  
travel and he has to travel abroad, too. Still, the President should leave  
his Office only when he really has to.
  Since the President has to be let out from time to time, the newer technique  
is to restrict where the onlookers may congregate, especially those who wish  
to take the opportunity to express dismay with Presidential policies. Thus we  
now see the evolution of â€œfree speech cornersâ€ so that demonstrators are  
confined to specific areas far from the actual event where the President is  
appearing or the route he is transiting.

Practical Protection during Presidential Appearances

1. The Secret Service must have a top-secret plan of all visits, because the  
advance group has to come to the place at least a week ahead and cooperate  
with the field FBI offices and police (foreign special services if itâ€™s a  
visit abroad) paying attention to extremist groups and organizations.  
Officers and technicians search the place, looking for possible explosives,  
radioactive, biological and chemical dangerous or poisonous stuff and  
weapons; they check the walls, floors and ceilings; check air and water in  
the area; install weapons and explosives detectors and stay at the place  
24/7, using night vision devices, too. (Dogs are good helpers if there is any  
question of explosives.) You have to check nearby houses as well (there could  
be people with mental health problems or dangerous criminals. Remember, the  
President must not appear in open areas close to apartment buildings. And the  
President has to be able to reach the National Security Command Center at any  
time.
2. If the President has to make a speech in open area there should be at  
least 3 security circles around him:
- up to 50 ft (personal bodyguards, weapons and explosives technicians)
- up to 200 ft (fast reaction anti-terror group)
- up to 1000 ft (support groups, snipers, police)
  The security system includes both â€œopenâ€ and undercover groups (obvious  
security and people who play the crowd or service â€” drivers, waiters,  
cleaners â€” terrorists donâ€™t pay attention to them, as a rule). Each group  
follows its instructions strictly and avoids mess (personal bodyguards are in  
charge of immediate protection, anti-terror group has to fight and chase  
terrorists, etc.). Extra people always mean extra danger, so the most secure  
situation is when extra people have no access to the President at all and  
canâ€™t get into any of three circles. The guest list has to be triple  
checked to exclude anybody with criminal records who could compromise the  
leader. Reporters are there too and you have to tell them exactly where to  
wait (they have to be checked and kept separate after that), where to stand  
and what pictures (poses) to take; the President canâ€™t look stupid or  
funny. Inside the building watch when people applaud, stand up and sit down  
â€” terrorists prefer these situations to shoot or blow explosives.
  When President moves through or along the crowd, â€œcutâ€ it into pieces,  
guard him in circles, watch people who are carrying any objects (no flowers!)  
â€” they must not approach him; watch people with hands in their pockets,  
those who try to touch him, shake his hand, pass any object (gift, picture,  
photo). They must not be allowed to do that. If anybody behaves in a  
suspicious way, hold him tight (so he canâ€™t take out a gun) and â€œscrewâ€  
him out of the crowd. In case of any attempt push the President to the  
ground, cover him and shoot immediately. Then leave the place as soon as  
possible and bring him to the hospital for a check up (even if heâ€™s OK).

Frequent Security Mistakes

  The worst one - Secret Service and other agencies get inadequate  
intelligence information on a possible attempt or overlook important  
information, including anonymous letters and mail from psychos. (They must  
have information, even if itâ€™s â€œinsideâ€ the White House conspiracy.  
Agents have to memorize pictures of all the most dangerous persons who are  
wanted in the United States and people who were involved in attempted attacks  
on top politicians worldwide.)
The next two â€” extraneous people are allowed access to the President or  
extraneous people stay in the area close enough to shoot the President. In  
1997, a France Press reporter took a picture of the Clintons dancing during  
their vacation on the Virgin Islands â€” they were dressed for the Caribbean  
and were happy in their privacy. Luckily, it was just a reporter, but what if  
it had been a sniper? What was the Secret Service doing? Then the picture was  
published worldwide and Hillary Clinton was furious - she didnâ€™t look  
attractive at all.
  The last two major errors occur when (1) you canâ€™t identify the potential  
terrorists in the crowd and (2) you react too slow or waste time evacuating  
the President.

   Bonus. I saved Hillary Clinton

On August 9, 2006 at 8 A.M. I saw strange green flyers inside the Lefrak  
City, Queens buildings saying that: "State Senator John Sabini invites you to  
meet U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton on the issues. Lefrak City (by the pool).  
Wednesday, August 9, 2 P.M. Call Sabini for Senate at 718-651-8190 if you  
have any questions".

Unbelievable.
Do you know whatâ€™s Lefrak City ? Itâ€™s 20 old brick 18-floor projects for  
poor African-Americans, Latinos, and Russians. The most dangerous area in  
Queens and the New York State, stuffed with street gangs, crack  
cocaine,heroine, prostitutes and illegal guns. Three years ago 100 NYPD  
officers stormed the ghetto and arrested 13 most ruthless gangsters who  
terrorized people for years (another 10 are still wanted), confiscated guns,  
ammunition, drugs and $2.5 million in cash.
On August 1, 2006 NYS Senator John Sabini delivered a speech at Lefrak City  
community meeting at St. Paulâ€™s Church demanding new, severe state and  
federal laws to control illegal weapons. And now, the same Sabini invites  
everybody to meet in person a former First Lady, the U.S. Senator Hillary  
Clinton at some open playground. Whatâ€™s that ? A sweet candy for  
terrorists? A regular stupidity?

I saw flyers at 8 A.M. , and in two minutes I was already walking to the  
place â€“ just to make sure Mrs. Clinton, who saved my family, will meet the  
voters guarded by the "best of the best" â€“ the U.S. Secret Service.
I was sure they already watch the area for the last 24 hours.
I was sure the access to the area is restricted.
I was sure that one week before the event local police instructed the secret  
sources to stay at alert and report any suspicious activity and people who  
had or tried to purchase illegal guns.
I was sure bad guys and aggressive psychos were isolated temporarily or kept  
under control at least.
I was sure technicians checked the air, soil and water (in the open pool) for  
radioactivity and toxic substances, looked for explosives and brought a  
specially trained dog.
I was sure there was no access to a single roof and theyâ€™ve installed a  
metal detector to check VIP and other guests.
I was sure they had a double checked guest list. Kill me, I was sure the  
Secret Service would never let any bad guy approach Hillary Clinton. I was  
wrong.

At 8.30 A.M.,six hours before the meeting, I came there to check the place  
and estimate the threats.
Nothing and nobody around.
The place was a heaven for terrorists:
- a circle of six 18-floor-1500-window buildings (such meetings in the open  
areas close to residential buildings are strictly f o r b i d d e n )
- a playground
- an open stage under a small roof (no walls)
- barbeque place
- a pool

And six hours to get ready for assassination:
- observe the place and then plan assassination
- install a mine under a stage
- try a silenced sniper rifle out of any window or from the roof and make  
necessary corrections
- bring and place the whole army of terrorists all over the place

I've checked one of the building - free access to the roof. Perfect  
conditions for a sniper.

At 11 A.M. two girls, three assistants and free "Pepsi" appeared out of  
nowhere. 2 cops â€“ in and out. No restriction. Not even a "Donâ€™t cross"  
tape.
At 1 P.M. about 500 people came to the playground â€“ retired old men and  
women, homeless alcoholics,drug addicts, kids,teens and reporters.
At 2.30 P.M. people surrounded the playground and screamed like crazy when  
Hillary Clinton finally appeared among them and tried to make her way through  
the crowd. Anybody could touch or hit her - 2 cops and 2 Secret Service  
agents just smiled happily. Then she got to the stage encircled by a wild ,  
absolutely uncontrolled crowd. One agent was standing behind her, another one  
â€“ at the stairs. No security. I had to move close to the stage â€“ the  
situation was unpredictable and I could help to protect Mrs. Clinton with my  
10 years of KGB experience and 2 years of "The Nabat" anti-terror group.
She made a 15 minutes speech and then Iâ€™ve witnessed a total chaos â€“  
still on the stage, she tried to shake hands and people went wild; somebody  
gave her flowers (absolutely unacceptable thing), somebody asked her to hold  
a baby to make pictures; people screamed and pushed each other. I had to ask  
people to move back and some did. I was at the stage, right at the middle and  
people couldn't reach Hillary Clinton easily, some women tried to push me - I  
was laughing and playing a nice guy, but didn't leave my spot.
  Agents paid no attention â€“ they were slowly chewing gums, obviously proud  
of their James Bond style sunglasses. Poor Sabini asked people to move away  
â€“ nobody cared. Only when some young girls jumped up on the stage, police  
officer reluctantly restricted the place with a yellow tape â€“ the Secret  
Service guy looked at him insurprise. Then Hillary turned over to talk to  
somebody on the stage , and the agent turned his back to the crowd, too â€“ I  
couldnâ€™t believe it.
At 3.30 she left the playground and had to move through the huge crowd again.  
I was next to her pretending I'm making video.
She was lucky - God loves her. I love her too.


                                                             PART 3.  TOP  
MILITARY MANAGEMENT.


â€œThe law of the strongest is the only international law.â€  Mikhail   
Kryzhanovsky

                  Chapter  1.  Commmander-in â€“Chief.

The president loves  war, not peace, because:

a) Successful military engagement enhances presidential popularity. All five  
Presidents who have run for re-election during a war have won.
b) A quick war improves the electoral fortunes of the presidentâ€™s political  
party.
c) War is good business, at least if you win, and at least if it does not  
drag on too long. It stimulates demand for a variety of manufactured goods  
and services (even if they are all destined to go down the drain) and is a  
powerful stimulus to all fields of scientific endeavor.
d) War provides opportunities to direct lucrative contracts to companies and  
individuals who helped get the President elected, or who can help in the  
future; and to the constituents of select Senators and Congressmen for the  
same reasons.
e) War usually pleases the Joint Chiefs (and their full support is important  
politically).
f) War keeps down the unemployment figures.
g) War is just one detail in a vast ongoing game of international strategy  
for domination; it is as much a financial operation as anything else.
h) War unifies the country, and keeps the publicâ€™s attention away from  
issues that might be controversial.
i) War provides a rationale for the implementation of tighter legislation and  
the removal of certain freedoms that would never be tolerated in peacetime  
America.

At the same time, war is limited by political decisions and by public  
opinion. Initially the use of US forces spurs a â€œrally around the flagâ€  
effect that lifts the Presidentâ€™s popularity and builds up support for the  
troops. But the American people are casualty averse and the positive effect  
lasts only until the number of casualties and the length of the engagement  
begin to wear on the public. Continued military action will then have a  
deleterious effect on presidential approval ratings as the war becomes  
increasingly unpopular.

In the long run, the destruction of such vast quantities of resources, and  
the diversion of so much of the nationâ€™s productive capacity away from  
actual goods and services for the real economy, are obviously immensely  
deleterious. Eventually, these downside effects will begin to dawn on even  
the best-manipulated electorate.

Duties of the Commander-in-Chief

1. As President you are Commander-in-Chief, but your job is political  
decision making, not war management. You:
- lead all federal and state armed forces
- lead the US defense policy
- suggest a budget for the armed forces
- choose the leaders of the armed forces
- decide where the armed forces will be in the world
- abide by all laws about armed forces
- direct all war efforts
- protect the lives of Americans living in other countries

   During wartime you have special powers and Congress must agree to any  
actions president takes, including:
- placing limits on prices
- limiting the sale of food, clothes and other items
- having a control on war-related businesses
- limiting freedoms for the period of war

  SIOP or Presidential nuclear command

The most classified business you will be briefed on about after youâ€™re  
elected is the Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP), which contains the  
possible US nuclear responses to a variety of attacks. Hereâ€™s the procedure  
of Presidential nuclear command:

If the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) detects evidence of a  
possible nuclear attack against the United States, NORAD, the Strategic Air  
Command (SAC), the Pentagonâ€™s National Military Command Center and the  
Alternative National Military Command Center begin procedural steps to verify  
the authenticity of the attack. If NORAD and other units determine that the  
attack is real, you are informed of the attack and its characteristics. Then  
you have to consult with the Defense Secretary and Joint Chiefs of Staff and  
consider SIOP options. If a nuclear attack option is chosen, you have to  
transmit the launch codes that unlock the nuclear weapons and assure the  
officers in charge of the weapons that the launch order is authentic. You may  
also give authority to launch nuclear weapons to the Secretary of Defense.



    Chapter 2.  Strategy and Tactics.

2.1 Strategy

   Strategy  is the planning of campaigns, selecting the aims and solving the  
logistics problems connected with moving men and resources to their battle  
positions. Actually, strategy is how you use battles to win a war, while a  
tactic is how you use troops to win a battle. Thereâ€™s only one grand  
strategy â€” to win the war; and the President is very important here as a  
politician â€” he gives the orders to freeze the enemyâ€™s assets in American  
(and alliesâ€™) banks and he builds up the international coalition. American  
military strategy in the 21st century has to be a global strategy, which  
means coalition building. We will not discuss nuclear strategy and tactics in  
depth, because we all hope that for the next 25 years at least the practical  
use of nuclear weapons will remain a matter of science fiction, something to  
hint at and suggest as a threat, but not to actually try. Please do not prove  
me wrong.

2.2 Tactics

Military tactics rest on fourteen elements:

1.Identification or  selection and maintenance of aim (ability to define and  
locate the opponent). Tactics should be      directed to achieve a particular  
outcome such as the capture of  a bridge or a hill. Once an aim is  
identified, time, resources and effort are expended to achieve it; therefore,  
these are wasted if the aim is frequently changed.
2.Administration (planning and analysis). Ask what  (type of operation), when  
  (time), where (the assigned area),  how  (the use of assigned assets), why   
(the purpose). Mission analysis includes : mission, enemy(intelligence),  
terrain (and weather), troops, time available between receiving the mission  
and the deadline for having completed it (time is the most critical resource,  
especially during daylight hours), deception, civilian considerations.
3.Concentration of efforts (against the enemy, where he is known to be  
weakest). Remember, he who defends everything defends nothing, he who attacks  
everywhere will capture nothing.
4. Security (intelligence and counter-intelligence)
5.Economy of force (to make the best use of all resources and in order to  
create and maintain a reserve).
6.Force protection (dispersing, camouflage, deception, electronic counter  
measures, use of fortifications â€” entrenchments, over head protection,  
foxholes, revetting, vanguard). Dispersal of force is a very necessary  
practice  in modern warfare where firepower is precise and overwhelming.  
Camouflage is not just special uniform; outlines have to be broken up,  
textures disguised and reflective surfaces dulled. Camouflage  techniques  
also extend beyond the visible spectra that the human eye normally uses, as  
the same principles now need to work in infrared light, against starlight  
scopes and radar frequencies. Also you have to use terrain, natural (river)  
and man made obstacles and barriers , like wire anti-vehicle ditches and  
â€œbermsâ€ (knife edges).
7. Isolation (when the opponent is denied the ability to gain outside  
resources and assistance).
8. Suppression (the process of denying the opponent the freedom of movement  
and ultimately maneuver)
9. Maneuver (combination of movement and firepower to achieve a position of  
advantage which means the placing of strength against an opponentâ€™s  
weakness)
10. Flexibility (a capability to react to changing circumstances, especially  
by mobility, the rapid switching of fire-power and arrangement of sufficient  
resources).  Donâ€™t  forget  to keep about a quarter of the forces back in  
reserve to exploit new opportunities, or react quickly to reverses and  
unexpected developments â€“ a battalion might keep a company back, the  
brigade might keep a battalion back. Here I would also talk about exploiting  
prevailing weather (bad weather  cut down on the chance of detection) and  
exploiting night using night vision equipment.
11. Cooperation (with allies through secure links)
12. Offensive action (to win the initiative and throw an enemy off balance)
13. Destruction (physical destruction of resources or destruction of the  
opponentâ€™s will)
14. Troops motivation.


   2.3  The U.S.  principles of  military art:

1.Objective (direct  every military operation towards a clearly defined,  
decisive and attainable objective. The ultimate military purpose of war is  
the destruction of the enmyâ€™s ability and will to fight).
2.Offensive  (seize, retain and exploit initiative. Offensive action is the  
most effective and decisive way to attain a clearly defined common objective.  
Offensive operations are the means by which a military force seizes and holds  
the initiative while mainaining freedom of action and achieving decisive  
results. This is fundamentally true across all levels of war).
3.Mass  (concentrate combat power at the decisive place and time.  
Synchronizing all the elements of combat power where they will have decisive  
effect on an enemy force in a short period of time is to chieve mass. Massing  
effects, rather than concentrating forces, can enable numerically inferior  
forces to achieve decisive results, while limiting exposure to enemy fire).
4.Economy of force ( employ all combat power available in the most effective  
way possible; allocate minimum essential combat power to secondary efforts.  
Economy of force is the judicious employment and distribution of forces. No  
part of the force should ever be left without purpose. The allocation of  
available combat power to such tasks as limited ttacks, defense, delays,  
eception, or even retrograde operations is measured in order to ahieve mass  
elsewhere at the decisive pont and time of battlefield).
5.Maneuver  (place the enemy in a disadvantageous position through the  
flexible application of combat power. Maneuver is the movement of forces in  
relation to the enemy to gain positional advantage. Effective maneuver keeps  
the enemy off balance and protects the force. It is used to exploit  
successes, to preserve freedom of action, an to reduce vulnerability. It  
continually poses new problems for the enemy y rendering his actions  
ineffective, eventually leading to defeat).
6.Unity of  command  (for every objective, ensure unity of effort under one  
responsible commander. At all levels of war, employment of military forces in  
a maner that masses combat power toward a common objective requires unity of  
command and unity of effort. Unity of command means that all the forces are  
under one responsible commander. It requires a single commander with the  
requisite authority to direct all forces in pursuit of a unified purpose).
7.Security  (never permit the enemy to acquire an unexpected advantage.  
Security enhances freedom of action by reducing vulnerability to hostile acts  
, influence or surprise. Security  results from the measures taken by a  
commander to protect his forces. Knowledge and understanding of enemy  
strategy, tactics, doctrine, and staff planning improve the detailed planning  
of adequate security measures).
8.Surprise (strike the enemy at a time, at a place or in a manner for which  
he is unprepared. Surprise can decisively shift the balance of combat power.  
By seeking surprise, forces can achieve success well out of proportion to the  
effort expended. Surprise can be in tempo, size of force, direction or  
location of main effort and timing. Deception can aid the probability of  
achieving surprise).
9.Simplicity  (prepare clear, uncomplicated plans and clear, concise orders  
to ensure thorough understanding. Everything in war is very simple, but  
simple thing is difficult. To the uninitiated, military operations are not  
difficult. Simplicity contributes to successful operations. Simple plans and  
clear, concise orders minimize misunderstanding and confusion. Other factors  
bing equal, parsimony is to be prefered).

   2.4 The Russian principles of military art:

1. Combat readiness.
2. Surprise.
3. Aggressivnes and decisiveness.
4. Persistence and nitiative.
5. Combined arms oordination and joint operations.
6. Decisive concentration of forces.
7. Deep battle or dep operations.
8. Informatin warfare.
9. Exploitation of moral-political factors.
10. Firm and continuous command and control.
11. Comprehensive comat support.
12. Timely restoration of reserves and combat potential.

   2.5 Chinese principles of military art.

Because the military doctrines of the Popleâ€™s Liberation Army are in a  
state of flux, it is difficult to give a capsule summary of a single doctrine  
which is expounded with the PLA. Rather the PLA is currently influenced by  
three doctrinal schools which both conflict and complement each other. These  
three schools are:
1.Peopleâ€™s war ( derived from the Maoist notion of warfare as a war in  
which the entire society is mobilized.
2.Regional war (envisions future wars to be limited in scope and confined to  
the Chinese border).
3.Revolution in military affairs ( a school of thought which believes that  
technology is transforming the basis of warfare and that these technological  
changes present both extreme dangers and possibilities for the Chinese  
military.

   In recent years, â€œlocal war under high-tech conditionsâ€ has been  
promoted.

    Chapter 3.  Staying Alive


  There is no and there will be no such creature as the â€œsoldier of  
tomorrowâ€ loaded with computers who doesnâ€™t have to be skillful on his  
own; this is a  fantasy of smart idiots wasting federal money, who never have  
been under fire amidst the hell of actual combat. Of course, technology has  
changed the character of modern war, but as the insurgents in Iraq have  
taught us, the rest of the world doesnâ€™t have to reach our level in  
military technology to fight â€” they can conduct urban guerilla warfare with  
whatever is at hand.
  For a hundred years to come the best way to survive will still be to dig up  
a big, deep trench. The best computer is a loaded submachine gun, and the  
best techniques are:
- Firepower + Speed = Low Casualties
- the minor tactic of infantry: â€œfire and movementâ€ â€” firing and  
moving, often in pairs, when one soldier fires to suppress or neutralize the  
enemy whilst the other moves either toward the enemy or to a more favorable  
position;
- basic drill (if you are under â€œeffective fireâ€): run five-six steps,  
drop to the ground or into cover, crawl a few yards (or move under cover),  
observe, shoot identified targets within effective range, move, observe and  
shoot until you get another order;
- â€œoverwatchâ€: one small unit supports another while they execute fire  
and movement patrolling: reconnaissance patrol (used to collect information  
by observing the enemy and working with informants, fighting patrol (to raid  
or ambush a specific enemy not holding the ground; you need a platoon for a  
fighting patrol), clearing patrol (to ensure that newly occupied defensive  
position is secure), standing patrol (to provide early warning, security or  
to piquet some geographical feature such as dead ground).


3.1 How to fight in :

Desert
Successful desert operations require adaptation to heat and lack of water as  
temperatures may vary 136 degrees Fahrenheit in the deserts of Mexico and  
Libya to the bitter cold of winter in the Gobi (East Asia). Terrain varies  
from mountain and rocky plateau to sandy or dune terrain. The key to success  
in desert operations is mobility, though movement can easily be detected  
because of sand and dust signatures left due to the loose surface material  
(in an actual engagement, this may not be all that bad because a unit is  
obscured from direct fire while advancing, but the element of surprise may be  
lost). Moving at night is the best choice.
Attack helicopters are extremely useful there due to their ability to  
maneuver and apply firepower over a large battlefield in a short time.  
Suppression of enemy air defense has a high priority during offensive  
operations. The destruction of enemy antitank capabilities must also have a  
high priority due to the shock potential of armor in the desert.
No panic, no smoking, no alcohol (it dehydrates the body). Donâ€™t drink much  
liquid. Keep the gun clean from sand. Kill anybody for water and watch for  
water signs, like animal tracks and the birdsâ€™ flight patterns.

Jungle
In the jungle youâ€™ll fight, most probably, guerrilla, not conventional  
forces. In general, jungle enemies can be expected to follow these tactical  
principles: maintain the offensive, stay close to the enemy to reduce the  
effects of his firepower, infiltrate at every opportunity, operate during  
periods of limited visibility, use surprise tactics (see Special Forces).  
Remember that trees and foliage reduce the effective range of your weapons.

In Latin America the most likely threat for the US are insurgent leftist  
movements. In Africa many of the conflicted factions struggle among  
themselves, due to political or ancient tribal differences, differences that  
may be stirred up by rival leaders in the â€œmodernâ€ political state, who  
in turn may be working (knowingly or not) in the interests of other, more  
developed, powers who benefit from the chaos. (These factions consist  
primarily of heavily armed with mortars and artillery guerrilla groups. There  
are active guerrilla movements in Southeast Asia, too).
The worst things (often exaggerated) in jungle combat are fear,  
malaria-carrying mosquitoes and snakes; also heat, thick vegetation and  
rugged terrain, especially for those who carry heavy weapons. If bitten by a  
snake, follow these steps: remain calm but act swiftly, and chances of  
survival are good; immobilize the affected part in a position below the level  
of the heart; place a lightly constricted band 5 to 10 cm (2 to 4 inches)  
closer to the heart than the site of the bite (reapply the constricting band  
ahead of the swelling if it moves up the arm or leg). The constricting band  
should be placed tightly enough to halt the flow of blood in surface vessels,  
but not so tight as to stop the pulse; do not attempt to cut open the bite or  
suck out venom; seek medical help (if possible, the snakeâ€™s head with 5 to  
10 cm of its body should be taken to the medics for identification and a  
proper choice of anti venom).
  The thick foliage and few rods make ambush a constant danger, and thatâ€™s  
why point, flank and rear security teams have to keep a force from being  
ambushed. These teams must be far enough away from the main body that if they  
make contact the whole force will not be engaged (use dogs, too). Successful  
jungle attacks usually combine dispersion and concentration. For example, a  
rifle company may move out in a dispersed formation so that it can find the  
enemy. Once contact is made, its platoons close on the enemy from all  
directions. Remember, jungle areas are ideal for infiltration because dense  
vegetation and rugged terrain limit the enemyâ€™s ability to detect movement.  
On the other side, itâ€™s difficult to detect the approach of an attacking  
enemy for the same reason. In the  jungle the key weapons are infantry small  
arms, mortars and artillery.  Do not use  insect repellant when on ambush,  
because the enemy can smell you before he hits the killing zone. Have each  
soldier make field  expedient aiming stakes for the ambush site â€“ this will  
keep distribution of ire even throughout the killing zone. Do not wera  
helmets: they degrade your hearing and reduce your peripheral vision. Take  
listening halts at least 15 minutes every hour. Patrol 500 meters in front of  
the unit. Carry iodine tablets.
  Due to the limited visibility of the jungle, the hasty attack is the most  
likely scenario. React quickly with every weapon that you can bring to bear  
as soon as you contact the enemy. Gain immediate fire superiority and keep  
it. Do not wait for a clear visual target to open fire; fire at smoke, muzzle  
flashes, or by sound, use grenades immediately, otherwise, the enemy will  
gain the superiority.
Be aware of stay-behind snipers as you approach the objective. Night raids  
are generally not practical.

Far North
Be ready for long hours of daylight and dust in summer, long nights and the  
extreme cold in winter, and the mud and morass of the transition periods of  
spring and autumn. The disrupting effects of natural phenomena, the scarcity  
of roads and railroads, the vast distances and isolation, and occasionally  
the lack of current maps combine to affect adversely but not totally restrict  
mobility, fire power, and communications.
Navigation is tricky  in the Arctic. Youâ€™re near the magnetic pole,so  
compass readings may be erratic:take more than one, and average them out.Use  
the shadow tip method or use the sun and stars to show you in which direction  
north and other points of the compass lie. Nature  gives you some clues,too:
-a solitary evergreen tree will always have more growth on its south side
- bark on poplar and birch trees will always be lighter in colour on the  
south-facing side
- trees and bushes will be bent in the direction that the wind normally  
blows, so if you know the direction of the prevailing wind you can work out  
north and south
- the snow on the south side of the ridges tends to be more granular than on  
the north
- snowdrills usually are on the  downwind side of protruding  objects like  
rocks, trees of high banks. By determining the cardinal points of the compass  
and from them the direction of the drifts, the angle at  which you cross them  
will serve as a check point  in maintaining a course. In the southern  
hemisphere the opposite polarity applies.
Crossing thin ice: one man at a time; take your hands out of the loops on  
your ski poles; put your equipment over one shoulder only, so you can shrug  
it off; loosen your bindings on your skis or snowshoes; think about  
distributing your weight by lying flat and crawling; bear in mind thicknesses  
of ice snd their corresponding loadbearing capabilities: 2 inches support 1  
man, 4 inches â€“ 2 men side by side,10 inches â€“ a half-ton vehicle.
The most suitable time for ground operations is from midwinter to early  
spring before the breakup of the ice. Early winter, after the formation of  
ice, is also favorable. Tracks in the snow, and fog created by a heat source,  
complicate the camouflage of positions. The blending of terrain features,  
lack of navigational aids, fog and blowing snow all combine to make land  
navigation extremely difficult. And donâ€™t eat the snow, and donâ€™t put  
weapons on the snow (especially after shooting).

Mountains
  Mountain campaigns are characterized by a series of separately fought  
battles for the control of dominating ridges and heights that overlook roads,  
trails, and other potential avenues of approach. Operations generally focus  
on smaller-unit tactics of squad, platoon, company, and battalion size.  
Attacks in extremely rugged terrain are often dismounted, with airborne and  
air assaults employed to seize high ground or key terrain and to encircle or  
block the enemyâ€™s retreat. The mountainous terrain usually offers greater  
advantage to the defender and frontal attacks, even when supported by heavy  
direct and indirect fires, have a limited chance of success (the best thing  
is to use the envelopment). Infantry is the basic maneuver force in  
mountains. Mechanized infantry is confined to valleys and foothills, but  
their ability to dismount and move on foot enables them to reach almost  
anywhere in the area. The objective in mountainous areas of operations is  
normally to dominate terrain from which the enemy can be pinned down and  
destroyed.
  If youâ€™re not a sniper, you have nothing to do there. Use grenades  
carefully (in winter time thereâ€™s too much snow around). Keep in mind that  
low atmospheric pressure considerably increases the evaporation of water in  
storage batteries and vehicle cooling systems, and impairs cylinder breathing  
(consequently, vehicles expand more fuel and lubricant, and engine power is  
reduced by four to six percent for every 1,000-meters (3,300 ft) increase in  
elevation above sea level. You have to be used to the lack of oxygen. And  
donâ€™t drink or smoke while climbing. Be always ready to shoot. Watch open  
places and roads. Go parallel course when you chase the enemy. Shoot first if  
you see cut trees on your way.

3.2   Wounds

Donâ€™t eat before the assault; if thereâ€™s food in your system, youâ€™ll  
die if wounded in the belly.

If you or another soldier is wounded, first aid must be given at once and the  
first step is to apply the four life-saving measures:
1. Clear the airway, check and restore breathing and heartbeat. If he is not  
breathing, place him on his back and kneel beside his head, clear his airway  
and start mouth-to-mouth resuscitation and if necessary start external heart  
massage.
2. Stop the bleeding. Look for both entry and exit wounds, as a bullet  
usually makes a smaller wound where it enters than where it exits.
3. Prevent shock. Warning signs of shock are restlessness, thirst, pale skin  
and rapid heartbeat. Loosen the casualtyâ€™s clothing at the neck, waist and  
wherever it restricts circulation. Keep him warm. Reassure him by being calm  
and self-confident. Put him in a comfortable position.
4. Dress and bandage the wound.

   Attention:  majority of  the soldiers with serious wounds demonstrate the  
symptoms of  posttraumatic stress syndrome,  like re-experiencing the combat  
through vivid memories and flashbacks,feeling â€œemotionally numbâ€,  
diminished interest in performing military tasks, crying
uncontrollably, isolating himself from friends, relying increasingly on  
alcohol or drugs to get
through the day, feeling extremely moody, irritable, angry , suspicious or  
frightened, having
difficulty falling or staying asleep, sleeping too much and experiencing  
nightmares, feeling
guilty about surviving the combat while many other soldiers were killed,  
feeling fear and
sense of doom about the future. To cope with the syndrome the soldier has to  
recognize his
feelings about the situation and talk to others about his fears, be willing  
to listen to other soldiers, who coped with the syndrome, and  to understand  
that these feelings are a normal temporary response to an abnormal situation.


Chapter 4. Small unit tactics

4.1 Four Fâ€™s

Find â€“ locate the enemy
Fix â€“ pin them down with suppressing fire
Flank - send soldiers to the enemyâ€™s sides ( not the rear, as your troops  
will then fire upon each other).
Finish â€“ eliminate all enemy combatants

4.2. Overwatch.

Overwatch  is the state of one small unit or military vehicle supporting  
another unit, while they are executing fire and movement tactics. An  
overwatching or supporting unit has to take a position where it can observe  
the terrain ahead, especially likely enemy positions, and this allows to  
provide effective covering fire for advancing friendly units. An ideal  
overwatch position provides cover for the unit and unobstructed lines of  
fire. It may be on a height of the ground or at the top of a ridge, where a  
vehicle may be able to adopt a hull-down position. If the overwatching unit  
is in a position to fire over advancing friendly units, great care must be  
taken not to let fire fall short. The friendly units should be within tracer  
burnout (the range at which tracer rounds are visible). Overwatch can be  
performed by platoons during company fire and movement, by individual armored  
vehicles (especially, tanks) or infantry sections, in platoon fir and  
movement, or even by fireteams or individual soldiers, in the final stages of  
assault. Overwatch tactics and firing at the short halt were especially  
important in armored warfare before modern tank gun stabilizers were  
developed, since moving tanks were unlikely to hit any target. Even in the  
most modern tanks, however, the crews can locate and hit targets better when  
at halt.
   Bounding overwatch , also known as leapfrogging or simply bounding, is the  
military tactic of alternating movement of coordinated units to allow, if  
necessary , suppressive fire in support of offensive forward movent or  
defensive disengagement. As members of a unit take an overwatch posture,  
other members advance to cover; these two groups continually switch roles as  
they close with the enemy. This process may be done by â€œleapfroggingâ€ by  
fireteams, but is usually done within fireteams along a squad/platoon battle  
line to simulate an overwhelming movement towards the enemy and make it more  
difficult for the enemy to distinguish specific targets.
   Example: A squad (2 fireteams) in an urban combat zone must advance to a  
building 100 feet away, crossing an intersection they believe might be in  
enemy rifle sights from elevated buildings. If the team simply made a  
run-for-it, they expose themselves to potential enemy fire without  
protection. So, one fireteam takes an overwatch  position while the other  
team bounds ( a bond is a 3-5 second rush) to a new covered position. This  
way there is always an overwatch team that can react instantaneously to enemy  
fire (the bounding team would have to stop, take over , locate the enemy and  
aim before they could return fire). Once the covered position is reached by  
the bounding team, they take up overwatch positions and the other team then  
becomes the bounding team. By using bounding overwatch, this unit is able to  
move effectively through a hostile urban street and intersection, without  
unnecessary exposing themselves to enemy fire. If enemy contact is made, the  
overwatch team opens fire and the unit takes up a process called â€œfire and  
maneuverâ€ which is very like bounding overwatch in that teams alternate  
firing and maneuvering. During fire and movement maneuver, the commander  
takes more direct control of team movements and positions.

4.3 Center peel

  Center peel  or â€œpeelâ€  tactic is specifically designed for situations  
where smaller groups of infantry withdraw from engagement of a much larger  
force; itâ€™s a sloped or diagonal retreat from the enemy, a trick designed  
with human psychology in mind. It begins with an infantry unit facing off  
with a large force of enemies. Once the command is called, the soldiers  
implement a battle line formation facing into the enemyâ€™s midst. The  
soldiers then begin to use suppressing fire to delay the enemyâ€™s attack and  
advance. Depending on the direction of the retreat, the second to last  
soldier on the farmost end, opposite the retreating direction, calls out,  
â€œPeel 1â€. Now, the infantryman next to him, on the  end of the line,  
ceases fire, works his way behind the line towards the other side, takes a  
position one meter diagonally back from the farmost soldier on this side, and  
resumes suppressing fire. Then, the process repeats with the commands being  
simplified to â€œPeelâ€ , the  1 only there to signify the actual start of  
the tactic, and continues until the party has safely disengaged the target.  
The slanting motion of the tactic gives the impression of increasing numbers  
of infantry joining the battle, a psychological move designed to demoralize  
the opposition. The slanting motion also has the benefit of keeping open  
oneâ€™s field of fire. Retreating directly backwards would put the soldier  
too closely behind his own men, severely limiting his field of fire.

4.4 Patrolling

   Patrolling is another tactic. Small groups or individual units are deployed  
from a larger formation to achieve  a specific objective and then return. The  
tactic of patrolling may be applied to ground troops, armored units and  
combat aircraft. The duration of a patrol will vary from few hours to several  
weeks depending on the nature of the objective and the type of units  
involved. The most common objective is to collect information by carrying out  
a reconnaissance patrol. Such a patrol remains covert and observe an enemy  
without being detected. Other reconnaissance patrols are overt, especially  
those that interact with the civilian population .A fighting patrol is a  
group with sufficient size (platoon or company) and resources to raid or  
ambush a specific enemy. It primarily differs from an attack in that the aim  
is not to hold ground.
  A clearing patrol is a brief patrol around a newly occupied defensive  
position in order to ensure that the immediate area is secure. Clearing  
patrols are often undertaken on the occupation of a location and during stand  
to in the transition from night to day routine and vice versa.A standing  
patrol is a  small static patrol intended to provide early warning, security  
or to piquet some geographical feature, such as dead ground. A reconnaissance  
patrol is a  small patrol , whose main mission is the gathering of   
information.


Chapter 5. Sniper

Military snipers are usually deployed in two-men sniper teams consisting of a  
shooter and spotter â€“ they take turns in order to avoid eye fatigue. Sniper  
missions include reconnaissance and surveillance, counter-sniper, killing  
enemy commanders, selecting targets of opportunity and destruction of  
military equipment.

5.1  Common mistakes
The sniper has a tendency to watch the target instead of his aiming point. He  
may jerk or flinch at the moment his weapon fires because he thinks he must  
fire now ( this can be overcome through practice on a live-fire range). He  
may hurry and thus forget to apply wind as needed. Windage must be calculated  
for moving targets just as for stationary targets, and failure to do so when  
squiring a lead will result in a miss. NEVER fire from the edge of a wood  
line â€“ you should fire from a position inside the wood line (in the shade  
of shadows). DO NOT cause overhead movement of trees, bushes or tall grasses  
by rubbing against them; move very slowly. Do not use trails, roads or  
footpaths, avoid built-up and populated areas and areas of heavy  enemy  
guerrilla activity.

5.2  Position selection
Your position must match the following requirements: maximum fields of fire  
and observation of the target area, concealment from enemy observation,  
covered routes into and out of the position, located no closer than 300  
meters from the target area, a natural or man-made obstacle between the  
position and the target area. Avoid positions that are on a point or crest of  
prominent terrain features, close to isolated objects, at bends or ends of  
roads, trails  or streams, in populated areas, unless itâ€™s required. Your  
location must appear to the enemy to be the least likely place you are in (  
under logs in a deadfall area, tunnels bored from one side of a knoll to the  
other, swamps, deep shadows, inside rubble piles.
Urban terrain is perfect for a sniper, and positions can range from inside  
attics to street-level positions in basements. Shooting through loopholes in  
barricaded windows are preferred. Positions in attics are also effective, and  
you have to remove the shingles and cuts out of loopholes in the roof. DO NOT  
locate positions against contrasting background or in prominent buildings  
that automatically draw attention. Never fire close to a loophole, always  
back away from the hole as far as possible to hide the muzzle flash and to  
scatter the sound of the weapon when it fires. You may stay in a different  
room than the loophole; you can make a hole through a wall to connect the  
rooms and fire from inside one room. Do not fire from one position, and try  
to construct more than one position. Inside the room cover the windows with  
carpets or blankets to avoid silhouetting. Make escape routes through the  
holes knocked into the floor or ceiling; carpet or furniture placed over  
escape holes or replaced ceiling tiles will conceal them until needed. Firing  
from inside the attic around a chimney or other structure helps prevent enemy  
observation and fire.
  The second floor of a building is usually the best location for the  
position, as it presents minimal dead space but provides you more protection  
since passerby canâ€™t easily locate it.

5.3 Key targets.
Snipers ( thatâ€™s your #1 target), dog tracking teams ( shoot the dogâ€™s  
handler first and that confuses the dog a lot), officers, vehicle commanders  
and drivers, communications personnel, weapon crews, optics on vehicles,  
communication and radar equipment, weapon  computer-guided systems.

5.4 Range estimation.
An object of regular outline, such as a house, appears closer than one of  
irregular outline, such as a clump of trees. A target that contrasts with its  
background appears to be closer than it actually is. A partly exposed target  
appears more distant that it actually is.  Distant targets are usually  
overestimated. Observing over smooth terrain, such as sand, water or snow  
causes the observer to underestimate distant targets. Looking downhill, the  
target appears father away; looking uphill, the target appears closer. The  
more clear a target can be seen, the closer it appears. When the sun is  
behind you, the target appears to be closer. When the sun is behind the  
target, itâ€™s more difficult to see it and it appears to be farther away.

5.5 Target indicators .
Sound . Most noticeable at night and caused by movement, equipment rattling  
,or talking. Small noises may be dismissed as natural, but talking not.
Movement. Most noticeable at daytime. Quick or jerky movement will be  
detected faster than slow  movement. The human eye is attracted to movement.  
Improper camouflage. Shine, outline, contrast with the ground.Disturbance of  
wildlife.

5.6  "Golden"  rules

1. Train your muscles to snap to the standard position for shooting, to  
squeeze the trigger straight back with the ball of your finger to avoid  
jerking the gun sideways.
Train yourself to shoot while you stand, sit, lie, walk, run, jump, fall  
down; shoot at voices, shoot in a dark room, different weather and distance,  
day and night; shoot one object and a group; use one gun, two guns, gun and  
submachine gun (some doctrines train a sniper to breathe deeply before  
shooting, then hold their lungs empty while he lines up and takes his shot;  
other go further, teaching a sniper to shoot  between heartbeats to minimize  
barrel motion)
2. Camouflage  yourself ten times before you make a single shot. Position  
yourself in a building (no rooftops or churches!), which offers a long-range  
fields of fire and all-round observation. Donâ€™t stay in places with heavy  
traffic! Use unusual angles of approach and frequent slow movement to prevent  
accurate counter-attacks.
3. Move slowly to prevent accurate counter-attack, donâ€™t be a mark yourself
4. Kill officers and military leaders first (Attention, officers: donâ€™t  
walk in front of your soldiers!)
5. Use suppressive fire to cover a retreat
6. Use rapid fire when the squad attempts a rescue
7. Shoot helicopters, turbine disks of parked jet fighters, missile guidance  
packages, tubes or wave guides of radar sets
8. At distances over 300 m attempt body shots, aiming at the chest; at lesser  
distances attempt head shots (the most effective range is 300 to 600 meters).  
Police snipers who generally engage at much shorter distances may attempt  
head shots to ensure the kill (in instant-death hostage situations they shoot  
for the cerebellum, a part of the brain that controls voluntary movement that  
lies at the base of the skull).
9. Shoot from flanks and rear
10. Never approach the body until you shoot it several times
11. Careful: the object could be wearing a bulletproof vest
12. Itâ€™s important to get to the place, but itâ€™s more important to get  
out alive
13. Remember,  in hot weather bullets travel higher, in cold â€” lower; a  
silencer reduces the maximum effective range of the weapon. Wind poses the  
biggest problem â€” the stronger the wind, the more difficult it is to hold  
the rifle steady and gauge how it will affect the bulletâ€™s trajectory. (You  
must be able to classify the wind and the best method is to use the clock  
system. With you at the center of the clock and the target at 12 oâ€™clock,  
the wind is assigned into three values: full, half and no value. Full value  
means that the force of the wind will have a full effect on the flight of the  
bullet, and these winds come from 3 and 9 oâ€™clock. Half value means that a  
wind at the same speed, but from 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10 and 11 oâ€™clock, will  
move the bullet only half as much as a full-value wind. No value means that a  
wind from 6 or 12 oâ€™clock will have little or no effect on the flight of  
the bullet).  Shooting uphill or downhill can require more adjustment due to  
the effects of gravity. For  moving targets, the point of aim is in front of  
the target ( itâ€™s called â€œLeadingâ€ the target, where the amount of lead  
depends on the speed and angle of the targetâ€™s movement. For this  
technique, holding over is the preferred method. Anticipating the behavior of  
the target is necessary to accurately place the shot).
14. If you work in terrain without any natural support, use your rucksack,  
sandbag, a forked stick, or you may build a field-expedient bipod or tripod.  
The most accurate position though is prone, with a sandbag supporting the  
stock, and the stockâ€™s cheek-piece against the cheek.
15. The key to sniping is consistency, which applies to both the weapon and  
the shooter. While consistency does not necessarily ensure accuracy (which  
requires training), sniping cannot be accurately carried out without it. The  
need for consistency is highest when a sniper is firing the first shot  
against an enemy unaware of the sniperâ€™s presence. At this point,  
high-priority targets such as snipers, officers and critical equipment are  
most prominent and  can be more accurately targeted. Once the first  shot has  
been fired, any surviving enemy will attempt to take cover or locate the  
sniper, and attacking strategic targets becomes more difficult or impossible.

5.6  Counter-sniper tactics

1. Active: direct observation by posts equipped with laser protective glasses  
and night vision devices; patrolling with military working dogs; calculating  
the trajectory; bullet triangulation; using decoys to lure a sniper; using  
another sniper; UAV (unmanned aerial vehicles); directing  artillery or  
mortar fire onto suspected sniper positions, the use of smoke-screens;  
emplacing tripwire-operated munitions, mines, or other booby-traps near  
suspected sniper positions( you can improvise booby-traps by connecting  
trip-wires to fragmentation hand grenades, smoke grenades or flares. Even  
though these may not kill the sniper, they will reveal his location. Booby  
â€“traps devices should be placed close to likely sniper hides or along the  
probable routes used into and out of the sniperâ€™s work area). If the squad  
is pinned down by sniper fire and still taking casualties, the order  may be  
given to rush the sniperâ€™s position. If the sniper is too far for a direct  
rush, a â€œrush to coverâ€ can also be used. The squad may take casualties,  
but with many moving targets and a slow-firing rifle, the losses are usually  
small compared to holding position and being slowly picked off. If  the  
sniperâ€™s  position is known, but direct retaliation is not possible, a pair  
  of squads can move through concealment (cover) and drive the nipper toward  
the group containing the targets. This decreases the chances that the sniper  
will find a stealthy, quick escape route.

2. Passive: limited exposure of the personnel (use concealed routes, avoid  
plazas and intersections, stay away from doorways and windows, move along the  
side of the street and not down the center, move in the shadows, move  
dispersed, avoid lighted areas at night, move quickly across open areas,  
avoid wearing obvious badges of rank, adapt screens on windows, use armored  
vehicles); use Kevlar helmet and bulletproof vest.

3. Locating an enemy sniper

1. Recon by fire. If a few possible sniper positions are visible, the squad  
can offer limited fire into each while the sniperâ€™s spotter watches for  
signs of retaliation. In situations with heavy cover, the friendly sniper can  
fire a tracer round into the location to direct heavier fire from the squad.
2. Mad minute.  If there are too many possible positions for a recon by fire  
, each likely enemy position is assigned to one or more friendly soldiers,  
and upon receiving the signal, all simultaneously fire a specific number of  
rounds.
3. Reserve azimuth.  If a sniperâ€™s bullet enters a stationary object,  
inserting a straight rod into the hole can reveal both the direction and arc  
of the bullet, and can also be used to estimate range or elevation. This  
technique is risky without cover, as it often involves entering the  
sniperâ€™s current field of fire.
4. Triangulation.  Technique at two or more locations can identify more  
accurately identify the position of a sniper at the time of firing.
5. Sound delay (â€œcrack-bangâ€). The enemyâ€™s  supersonic bullets produce  
a sonic boom, creating a â€œcrackâ€ sound as they pass by. If the enemyâ€™s  
bullet speed is known, his range can be estimated by measuring the delay  
between the bulletâ€™s passing and the sound of the rifle shot, then  
comparing it  to a table of values. This is only effective at distances of up  
to 450 meters; beyond this, the delay continus to increase , but ar a rate  
too small for humans to accurately distinguish.
6. Decoys. As more shots are fired, the chances of locating or directly  
observing the enemy sniper increase. Decoys help to increase the number of  
shots without taking human losses, and may include attractive targets such as  
  valuable (but unusable) equipment. Provocative  signage  (designed to offend  
/insult the sniper) may even work if an enemy sniper is unwise, aggressive,  
or does not know of the friendly presence in the area. Most trained snipers  
are specifically trained to take as few shots as possible, be patient and  
disciplined to circumvent this.
7. Detector.  The sniper detector system , named Boomerang, can determine the  
bullet type, trajectory and point of fire of unknown shooter location. The  
system uses microphone sensors to detect both the muzzle  blast and the sonic  
shock wave that emanate from a high-speed bullet. Sensors detect, classify,  
localize nd display the results on a map immediately after the shot.


Chapter 6.  Military tricks

1. Use rapid dominance: technology + speed + information domination.
2. Use artillery preparation. It is the artillery fire delivered before an  
attack to destroy, neutralize, or suppress the enemyâ€™s defense and to  
disrupt communications and disorganize the enemyâ€™s defense.
3. Use deception especially before the first strike (air strike + artillery).  
Deception plays a key part in offensive operations and has two objectives:  
the first objective is to weaken the local defense by drawing reserves to  
another part of the battlefield. This may be done by making a small force  
seem larger than it is. The second objective is to conceal the avenue of  
approach and timing of the main attack.
5. Imitate assault to make the enemy expose his positions and fire system.
6. Mines, mines, mines. There are four types of minefield : the tactical  
large-area minefield, usually laid by engineers, for tactical use on the  
battlefield(i.e. to canalize the enemy into killing areas); the protective  
minefield, the sort that you will plant in front of your position for  
defensive purposes; the  nuisance minefield, designed to hamper and disrupt  
enemy movement ; and the dummy minefield â€“ a wired off area suitably marked  
can be as effective as the real thing.
7. Donâ€™t touch anything in the places the enemy just left â€” check for  
mines first. A minefield is a mortal surprise and you have to know how to  
breach and cross it: remove your helmet, rucksack, watch, belt, and anything  
else that may hinder movement or fall off, leave your rifle and equipment  
with another soldier in the team, get a wooden stick about 30 cm (12 in) long  
for a probe and sharpen one of the ends (do not use a metal probe), place the  
unsharpened end of the probe in the palm of one hand with your fingers  
extended and your thumb holding the probe, and probe every 5 cm (2 in) across  
a 1-meter area in front of you and push the probe gently into the ground at  
an angle less than 45 degrees, kneel (or lie down) and feel upward and  
forward with your free hand to find tripwires and pressure prongs before  
starting to probe, put enough pressure on the probe to sink it slowly into  
the ground and if the probe does not go into the ground, pick or chip the  
dirt away with the probe and remove it by hand, stop probing when a solid  
object is touched, remove enough dirt from around the object to find out what  
it is. If you found a mine, remove enough dirt around it to see what type of  
mine it is, mark it and report its exact location to your leader. Once a  
footpath has been probed and the mines marked, a security team should cross  
the minefield to secure the far side. After the far side is secure, the rest  
of the unit should cross.
8.  Visual indicators.  Pay attention to the following indicators : trip  
wires, signs of road repair (new fill or paving, road patches, ditching),  
dead animals, damaged vehicles, tracks that stop unexplainably, wires leading  
away from the side of the road (they may be firing wires that are partially  
buried), mounds of dirt, change of plants color,, pieces of wood or othr  
debris on a road. Remember,  mined areas, like other  obstacles are often  
covered by fire. Keep also in mind, that local civilians try to avoid certain  
(mined)  areas.
9. Use phony minefields to simulate live minefields. For example, disturb the  
ground so that it appears that mines have been emplaced and mark boundaries  
with appropriate warnings.
10. Make a real minefield appear phony, or camouflage it. For example, once a  
real minefield is settled, a wheel or a specially made circular wooden tank  
track marker can be run through the field, leaving track or tire marks to  
lure the enemy onto live mines. Antipersonnel mines should not be sown in  
such a field until the track marks have been laid. Another method is to leave  
gaps in the mechanically laid field, run vehicles through the gaps, and then  
close them with hand-laid mines without disturbing the track marks.
11. Use feint attack to draw defensive action towards the point under assault  
(itâ€™s usually used as a diversion and to force the enemy to concentrate  
more manpower in a given area so that the opposing force in another area is  
weaker).
12. Issue false orders over the radio, imitate a tanksâ€™, fightersâ€™ and  
bombersâ€™ assault while preparing to retreat.
13. Use dummy units and installations, phony radio traffic, movement and  
suppressive fires in other areas timed to coincide with the real attack
14. Use force multiplication by using decoy vehicles and use small convoys to  
generate dust clouds. Move trucks into and out of the area giving it the  
appearance of being a storage facility or logistic base.
15. Simulate damage to induce the enemy to leave important targets alone. For  
example, ragged patterns can be painted on the walls and roof of a building  
with tar and coal dust, and covers placed over them.
16. Stack debris nearby and wire any unused portions for demolition. During  
an attack, covers are removed under cover of smoke generators, debris  
scattered and demolitions blown. Subsequent enemy air photography will  
disclose a building that is too badly damaged to be used.
17. Change positions at night time only.
18. Use dispersal to relocate and spread out forces to increase their chances  
of survival.
19. Imitate fake ballistic missiles divisions and military headquarters to  
entrap enemyâ€™s intelligence and sabotage groups.
20. Use â€œsackâ€ strategy (â€œcuttingâ€ enemyâ€™s army into separate  
groups).
21. Use strategic bombing (the massive attack on cities, industries, lines of  
communication and supply).
22. Simulate bombing of minor objects and attack important ones.
23. Use counter-battery fire (detecting with counter-battery radars the  
source of incoming artillery shells and firing back), using mobile artillery  
pieces or vehicles with mounted rocket launchers to fire and then move before  
any counter-battery fire can land on the original position.
24. Use airborne operations, when helicopters transport troops into the  
battle and provide fire support at battle sites simultaneously with artillery  
fire, keeping enemy off guard.
25.  Helicopters  are  extremely important as they can be sent everywhere: to  
kill tanks and other helicopters, for aerial mine laying, for electronic  
warfare, for naval operations (anti-submarine and anti-ship patrols), to  
correct artillery and tactical fighters fire, for reconnaissance, command,  
control and communications, to insert special forces, to evacuate casualties  
(this helps maintain the morale of the troops), to carry supplies (missile  
systems, ammunition, fuel food, to escort convoys, for navigational help, to  
destroy battlefield radars, communications and radio relay systems, to seal  
gaps and protect flanks, for rear-area security, counter â€” penetration,  
rapid reinforcement of troops under pressure, raids and assaults behind enemy  
lines, air assault in offensive and defensive operations, to strengthen  
anti-tank defenses by inserting infantry anti-tank teams. Helicopters offer a  
strong tactical surprise and take a ground conflict into the third dimension,  
making the enemyâ€™s ground maneuvers impossible.
26. When fighting an insurgency: once you get intelligence, you have to bomb  
the area to â€œsoftenâ€ insurgents and then send helicopters with special  
forces teams right away. Helicopters suppress and cut-off by fire insurgents  
trying to escape and the teams clear-up the remains. Transport helicopters  
must bring in troops rapidly from different bases and build-up numerically  
superior force which insurgents cannot match.
27. Use joint bombers/fighters flights to bomb transportation, supply,  
bridges, railroads, highways, antiaircraft and radar sites. To gain surprise  
, attack with the sun behind you. Remember, enemy will try to saturate the  
airspace  through which the aircraft will fly with fire.
28. Watch out for tank ambushes!

Chapter 7  Storming the City

7.1 Procedure

1. Effective intelligence is 90% of success. Use sources like agents among  
the enemyâ€™s high ranking officers, prisoners of war, captured documents and  
maps, enemyâ€™s activity, local civilians (agents). Use intelligence and  
sabotage groups (through them you can deliver your fake plans and maps). You  
must know how the enemy usually defends a built-up area and the approaches to  
it, critical objectives within the built-up area that provide decisive  
tactical advantages, tactical characteristics of the built-up area and its  
structure. Information about the population will assist in determining where  
to attack, what firepower restrictions may be imposed, and what areas within  
the urban complex must be avoided to minimize destruction of life-support  
facilities and civilian casualties.
2. Make the enemy attack you if possible, because if you attack first the  
victims calculation is 5:1.
3. Train your troops to storm this certain city.
4. Blockade the city completely.
5. Attack the city from different points ( flanks and rear !) at the same  
time after intense artillery fire and bombing (thatâ€™s a very strong  
psychological blow. Its intensity is determined by the strength of defensive  
forces, the type of building construction, and the density of fires required  
to suppress observation and fires. You must destroy command posts, heavy  
weapons positions, communications, troop emplacements, tall structures that  
permit observation. Then engineers move forward under the cover of smoke and  
high explosives to neutralize barriers and breach minefields on routes into  
the city). Field artillery, attack helicopters and offense air support must  
disrupt the enemy command and control network and destroy his support units (  
field artillery mostly creates breaches in buildings, walls and barricades.  
Mortars cover avenues of enemy troop movements, such as street intersections  
and alleys; mortars firing positions are placed behind walls or inside  
buildings close to their targets).  A hasty attack   is conducted when the  
enemy has not established strong defensive positions and attacking forces can  
exploit maneuver to overwhelm the defense â€“ locate a weak spot or gap in  
enemy defenses, fix forward enemy elements, rapidly move through or around  
the gap or weak spot to be exploited.  A  deliberate attack   is necessary  
when enemy defenses are extremely prepared, when the urban obstacle is  
extremely large or severely congested., or when the advantage of surprise has  
been lost. Itâ€™s divided into three basic phases: isolation from  
reinforcement and resupply by securing dominating terrain and utilizing  
direct and indirect fires; assault to rupture the defenses and secure a  
foothold on the perimeter of the built-up area from which attacks to clear  
the area may be launched (an envelopment, assaulting defensive weaknesses on  
the flanks or rear of the built-up area, is preferred, however , a  
penetration may be required; and clearance , a systematic  
building-by-building, block-by-block advance through the entire area..
6. Target vital bridges, transportation facilities that are required to  
sustain future combat operations, strategic industrial or vital  
communications facilities.  Attacks against built-up areas  will be avoided  
when the area is not required to support future operations, bypassing is  
tactically feasible, the built-up area has been declared an â€œopen cityâ€  
to preclude civilian casualties or to preserve  cultural or historical  
facilities, sufficient combat forces are not available to seize and clear the  
built-up area.
7. Donâ€™t use tanks on narrow streets ! Tanks can be decisive in city  
fighting, with the ability to demolish walls and fire medium and heavy  
machine guns in several directions simultaneously. However, tanks are  
especially vulnerable in urban combat. Itâ€™s much easier  for enemy infantry  
to sneak behind a tank or fire at its sides, where it is vulnerable. In  
addition, firing down from multi-story buildings allows shots at the soft  
upper turret armor and even basic weapons like Molotov cocktails, if aimed at  
the engine air intakes, can disable a tank.
8. Use 3 groups at each point.
1st.     A â€œdeadâ€ group plus tanks moves fast to the center, again, after  
intense artillery fire and bombing (otherwise youâ€™ll have heavy  
casualties).
2nd.    The  group follows the first one and inside the city goes like a  
â€œfanâ€ in all directions enveloping the defenderâ€™s flanks and rear.
3rd.     The  group is on reserve in case the enemy counterattacks.

   The first phase of the attack should be conducted when visibility is poor.  
Troops can exploit poor visibility to cross open areas, gain access to  
rooftops, infiltrate enemy areas and gain a foothold. If the attack must be  
made when visibility is good, units should consider using smoke to conceal  
movement. The formation used in attack depends on the width and depth of the  
zone to be cleared, the character of the area, anticipated enemy resistance,  
and the formation adopted by the next higher command. Lead companies may have  
engineers attached for immediate support. Tasks given to engineers may  
include preparing and using explosives to breach walls and obstacles, finding  
and exploding mines in place or helping remove them, clearing barricades and  
rubble, cratering roads.
9. Use paratroopers to capture important objects (airport, government  
buildings, military headquarters, port, railway station).
10. Capture high buildings and place machine gunners and snipers on upper  
floors (buildings provide excellent sniping posts for defenders, too).
11.  Get all important cross-roads to maneuver troops and tanks.
12. Block highways!
13. Watch out â€” there are mines everywhere (alleys and rubble-filled  
streets are ideal for planting booby traps). Be alert for boobytraps in  
doors, windows, halls, stairs, and concealed in furniture.
14. Watch underground communications â€” the enemy could stay in subway  
tunnels, sewage system.
15. Donâ€™t waste time storming the buildings â€” blow up the walls and move  
forward.
16. Soldiers in an urban environment are faced with ground direct fire danger  
in three dimensions â€” not just all-round fire but also from above  
(multi-story buildings) and from below (sewers and subways) and thatâ€™s why,  
here, the most survivable systems, like tanks, are at great risk. Also, there  
are increased casualties  because of shattered glass, falling debris, rubble,  
ricochets, urban fires and falls from heights. Difficulty in maintaining  
situational awareness also contributes to this problem because of increased  
risk of fratricide. Stress-related casualties and non-battle injuries  
resulting from illnesses or environmental hazards, such as contaminated  
water, toxic industrial materials also increase the number of casualties.
17. In the streets use artillery and mortars to â€œsoftenâ€ the enemy up  
before assault.

7.2  House clearing.

Donâ€™t spare your grenades (avoid  throwing grenades at upper windows or  
upstairs; they may bounce back), move fast from room to room. Machinegunners  
from outside have to help the assault group with intense fire on upper  
floors. The assault group always has to enter from the top floor. Shoot  
ceilings and floors, furniture and other hiding places. Avoid stairways  
whenever possible. Use flame weapons.

7.3 Seizure of a bridge.

1. Clear the near bank. The first step in seizing the bridge is to clear the  
buildings on the clear bank that overwatch the bridge and the terrain on the  
far side. The commander must  find out which buildings dominate the  
approaches to the bridge. Buildings that permit him to anti-tank weapons,  
machine guns and riflemen are cleared while supporting fire prevents the  
enemy from reinforcing his troops on the fart bank and keeps enemy demolition  
parties away from the bridge.
2. Suppress. You have to suppress enemy weapons on the far bank with direct  
and indirect fire (tanks, TOWs and machine guns). In suppressing  the  
enemyâ€™s positions on the far bank , priority is given to those positions  
from which the enemy can fire directly down the bridge. Use screening smoke  
to limit enemy observation.
3. Assault. Seize a bridgehead (buildings that overwatch and dominate the  
bridge) on the far bank by an assault across the bridge. The objectives of  
the assaulting platoons are buildings that dominate the approaches to the  
bridge on the far side. One or two platoons assault across the bridge using  
all available cover while concealed by smoke. In addition to a frontal  
assault across the bridge, other routes should be considered. They are  
supported by the rest of the company and any attached forces. Once on the  
other side, they call for the shifting of supporting fire and start clearing  
buildings. When the first buildings  are cleared, supporting fire is lifted  
and/or shifted again and the assault continues until all the buildings in the  
objective area are cleared.
4. Clear the bridge. Secure a perimeter around the bridge so that the  
engineers can clear any obstacles and remove demolitions from the bridge. The  
company commander may expend his perimeter to prepare for counterattack. Once  
the bridge is cleared, tanks and other support vehicles are brought across to  
the far bank.

7.4  Seizure of a traffic circle.

A company may have to seize a traffic circle either to secure it for friendly  
use or to deny it top the enemy. This operation consists of seizing and  
clearing the buildings that control their traffic circle, and bringing  
direct-fire weapons into position to cover it.

7.5  Search.

You are not done even if the storm was a success, because right away you have  
to search the houses and buildings in the following way: divide the area to  
be searched into zones, and assign a search team to each. A team usually  
consists of a search element (to conduct the search), a security element (to  
encircle the area) and a reserve area (to assist, as required). Then search  
the buildings, underground and underwater areas using mine detectors. And  
itâ€™s necessary to establish checkpoints and roadblocks around the area.
Building clearing assault team.
The direction each man moves in should not be preplanned unless the exact  
room layout  is known. Each man should go in a direction opposite the man in  
front of him. Every team member must know the sectors and duties of erach  
position. The first man (rifleman) enters the room and eliminates the  
immediate threat. He has the option of going left or right, normally moving  
along the path of least resistance to one of two corners. When using a  
doorway as the point of entry, the path of least resistance is determined  
initially based on the way the door opens; if the door opens inward he plans  
to move away from the hinges. If the door opens outward, he plans to move  
toward the hinged side. Upon entering, the size of the room, enemy situation,  
and furniture or other obstacles that hinder or channel movement become  
factors that influence the number 1 soldierâ€™s direction of movement. As the  
first man goes through the entry point, he can usually see into the far  
corner of the room. He eliminates any immediate threat and continues to move  
along the wall if possible and to the first corner, where he assumes a  
position of domination facing into the room.
The second man (team leader), entering almost simultaneously with the first,  
moves in the opposite direction, following the wall and staying out of the  
center. The second man must clear the entry point, clear the immediate threat  
area, clear his corner, and move to a dominating position on his side of the  
room.
The third man (grenadier) simply goes opposite of the second man inside the  
room at least one meter from the entry point and moves to a position that  
dominates his sector.
The fourth man (SAW gunner) moves opposite of the third man and moves to a  
position that dominates his sector.

   Stairwells and staircases are comparable to doorways  in that they create a  
fatal funnel; however, the danger is intensified by the three-dimensional  
aspect of additional landings. The ability of the squad or team to conduct  
the movement depends upon which direction they are travelling and the layout  
of the stairs. The clearing technique follows a basic format: the squad  
leader designates an assault element to clear  the stairs; the squad or team  
maintains 360-degree, three-dimensional security in the vicinity of the  
stairs; the squad leader then directs the assault team to locate, mark,  
bypass and clear any obstacles or booby traps that may be blocking access to  
the stairs.; the assault element moves up (or down) the stairways by using  
either the two-, three-, or four-man flow technique, providing overwatch up  
and down the stairs while moving.

  7.6   How to move and how to  fire

   Moving from building to building or between buildings present a problem to  
units conductive offensive operations. Most casualties can be expected during  
movement from building to building and down streets. You must consider which  
buildings must be isolated, suppressed and obscured, as well as using armored  
assets as shields for maneuver elements. In movement down narrow streets, or  
down wider streets with narrow paths through the debris, infantry should move  
ahead of tanks, clearing the buildings on each side. Personnel movement  
across open areas must be planned with specific destination in mind. Street  
intersections should be avoided, since they are normally used as engagement  
areas. Suppression of enemy positions and smoke to cover infantry movement  
should also be included in the fire support plan. When needed, tanks move up  
to places secured by the infantry to hit suitable targets. When an area is  
cleared, the infantry again moves forward to clear the next area. Tanks and  
infantry should use the traveling overwatch movement technique and  
communicate with tank crews by using arm-and-hand signals and radio. For  
movement down wider streets, infantry platoons normally have a section of  
attached tanks with one tank on each side of the street. Single tanks should  
not be employed. Other tanks of the attached tank platoon should move behind  
the infantry and fire at targets in upper stories of the buildings. In wide  
boulevards, you can employ a tank platoon secured by one or more infantry  
platoons. The infantry can secure the forward movement of the lead tanks,  
while the trailing tanks overwatch  the movement of the lead units. Tanks may  
drive inside buildings or behind walls for protection from enemy antitank  
missile fire where feasible. Buildings are cleared by the infantry first.  
Ground floors are checked to ensure they support the tank and there is no  
basement into which tank could fall. When moving, all bridges and overpasses  
are checked for mines, booby traps and load capacity.
   When moving from position to position, each soldier must be ready to cover  
the movement of other members of his fire team or squad. He must use his new  
position effectively and fire his weapon from either shoulder depending on  
the position. The most common errors a soldier makes when firing from a  
position are firing over the top of his cover and silhouetting himself  
against the building to his rear. Both provide the enemy an easy target. The  
correct technique for firing from a covered position is to fire around the  
side of the cover, which reduces exposure to the enemy. Another common error  
is for a right-handed shooter to fire from the right shoulder around the left  
corner of a building. Firing left-handed around the left corner of a building  
takes advantage of the corner afforded by the building. Right-handed and  
left-handed soldiers should be trained to adapt cover and concealment to fit  
their manual orientation. A common mistake when firing around corners is a  
firing from the standing position. You expose yourself at the height the  
enemy would expect a target to appear. When firing from behind the walls, you  
must fire around cover and not over it.
  In an urban area , windows provide convenient firing ports. Avoid firing  
from the standing position since it exposes most of the body to return fire  
from the enemy and could silhouette you against a light-colored interior  
beyond the window. This is an obvious sign of the soldierâ€™s position,  
especially at night when the muzzle flash can easily be observed. In using  
the proper method of firing from a window, be well back into the room and  
kneel to limit exposure. When no cover is available, reduce exposure by  
firing from the prone position, from shadows and by presenting no silhouette  
against buildings.
  The area around a corner must be observed before you move. The most common  
mistake is allowing your weapon to extend beyond the corner exposing your  
position (flagging the weapon). A special clearing technique is used when  
speed is required (the pie-ing method) â€“ this procedure is done by aiming  
the weapon beyond the corner into the direction of travel (without flagging)  
and side-stepping around the corner in a circular fashion with the muzzle as  
the pivot point.
   Doorways should not be used as entrances or exits since they are normally  
covered by enemy fire. If you must use a doorway as an exit, you should move  
quickly to your next position, staying as low as possible to avoid  
silhouetting yourself. Pre-selection of positions, speed, a low silhouette  
and the use of covering fires must be emphasized in exiting doorways.
  Use  double tap - it is a shooting technique where two shots are fired  
quickly at the same target. In the double tap technique, after the first  
round is fired, the trigger is quickly pulled again while maintaining the  
same point of aim. Ideally, both rounds should strike anywhere within the  
centre of the target, causing two sites of trauma and maximizing shock. The  
technique is meant to both impose restraint and fire control on the users of  
any weapon while maximizing the potential of both hitting and incapacitating  
the target. Extensive tests show that after the third round of sustained  
fire, accuracy drops off sharply, as aim is thrown off by gun recoil.  Using  
the double tap technique maintains target accuracy without wasting ammunition  
and decreases the probability of  damage to non-targets. Furthermore, since  
single rounds tend to have poor terminal ballistics characteristics, a pair  
of bullets traversing through a target in close  track (eg. the double tap)  
increases the probability of incapacitating a target. Also, since the center  
of mass is the most desirable target for a sidearm, firing  two rounds helps  
compensate for the possibility that the first round might be deflected by  
heavy bone  or miss a vital organ. Against armored targets, the double-tap is  
sometimes the only way to penetrate armored protection. While appropriate  
soft armor can stop almost any pistol-caliber round once, two rounds impcting  
the same spot will almost certainly penetrate the armor. Likewise with hard  
armor, two rounds from a higher-powered weapon stand a much better chance of  
penetrating the armor if the rounds strike closely.

7.7  Reasons for not-defending urban areas

1.The location of the urban area does not support the overall defensive plan.  
If the urban area is too far forward or back in a unitâ€™s defensive sector,  
is isolated, or is not astride an enemyâ€™s expected avenue of approach , the  
commander may choose not to defend it
2.Nearby terrain allows the enemy to bypass on covered or uncovered routes.  
Some urban areas, mainly smaller ones, are bypassed by main road and highway  
systems.
3. Structures within the urban area do not adequately protect the defenders.  
Extensive areas of lightly built or flammable structures offer little  
protection. Urban areas near flammable or hazardous industrial areas, such as  
refineries or chemical plants, should not be defended because of increased  
danger of fire to the defenders.
4. Dominating terrain is close to the urban area. If the urban area can be  
dominated by an enemy force occupying this terrain, the commander may choose  
to defend from there rather than the urban area. This applies mainly to small  
urban areas such as village.
5. Better fields of fire exist outside the urban area. The commander may  
choose to base all or part of his defense on long-range fields of fire  
outside an urban area. This applies mainly to armor-heavy forces defending  
sectors with multiple, small urban areas surrounded by open terrain, such as  
agricultural areas with villages.
6. The urban area has cultural, religious or historical significance. The  
area may have been declared an â€œopen cityâ€ in which case by international  
law, it is demilitarized and must be neither defended nor attacked. The  
attacking force must assume civil administrative control and treat the  
civilians as noncombatants in an occupied country. The defender must  
immediately evacuate and cannot arm the civilian population. A city can be  
declared open only before it is attacked. The presence of large numbers of  
noncombatants, hospitals or wounded personnel may also affect the  
commanderâ€™s decision not to defend an urban area.

   7.8  Reasons for defending urban areas

1. Certain urban areas contain strategic industrial, transportation or  
economic complexes that must be defended. Capital and cultural centers may be  
defended for strictly psychological or national morale purposes even when  
they do not offer a tactical advantage to the defender. Because of the sprawl  
of such areas, significant combat power is required for their defense. The  
decision to defend these complexes is made by political authorities or the  
theatre commander.
2. The defenderâ€™s need to shift and concentrate combat power, and to move  
large amounts of supplies over a wide battle area may require retention of  
vital transportation centers. Since most transportation centers serve large  
areas, the commander must defend the urban area to control such centers.
3. Most avenues of approach are straddled by small towns every few kilometers  
and must be controlled by defending forces. These areas can be used as battle  
positions or strongpoints. Blocked streets covered by mortar and/or artillery  
fire can canalize attacking armor into mined areas or zones covered by  
anti-armor fire. If an attacker tries to bypass  an urban area, he may  
encounter an array of tank-killing weapons. To clear such an area, the  
attacker must sacrifice speed and momentum, and expend many resources. A city  
or town can easily become a major obstacle.
4. Aerial photography, imagery and sensory devices cannot detect forces  
deployed in cities.

    Chapter 8.   Special forces.

Maximum damage, minimum loss.

8.1  Special military operations have special requirements.

1. Detailed planning and coordination that allow the special unit to discern  
and exploit the enemyâ€™s weakness while avoiding its strength.
2. Decentralized execution, individual and unit initiative.
3. Surprise, achieved through the unitâ€™s ability to move by uncommon means,  
along unexpected routes, over rough terrain, during poor weather and reduced  
visibility. Survivability, achieved by rapid mission accomplishment and a  
prompt departure from the objective area.
4. Mobility, speed, and violence of execution (the speed at which events take  
place confuses and deceives the enemy as to the intent of the unit, and  
forces the enemy to react rather than to take the initiative).
5. Shock effect, which is a psychological advantage achieved by the combining  
of speed and violence. The special unit strives to apply its full combat  
power at he decisive time and place, and at the point of the greatest enemy  
weakness.
6. Multiple methods of insertion and attack, trying not to repeat operations  
thus decreasing the chance the enemy will detect a pattern. Deception,  
achieved by feints, false insertions, electronic countermeasures, and dummy  
transmissions.
7. Audacity, achieved by a willingness to accept a risk.

Any special team member has to have experience in sniping, underwater  
swimming, conducting high-altitude, low-opening parachute operations,  
demolition, using all kinds of weapons, including man-portable air-defense  
system weapons. And there are some limitations, like limited capability  
against armored or motorized units in open terrain and no casualty evacuation  
capability.

   8.2  Use special forces for:

a) establishing a credible American presence in any part of the world
b) conducting limited combat operations under conditions of chemical, nuclear  
or biological contamination
c) surveillance and intelligence gathering using recruited agents too (local  
citizens who support your war or just work for money). To get to the area you  
have to use infiltration, the movement into the territory occupied by enemy  
troops, the contact is avoided.
d) raids on the enemyâ€™s defense system
Raids are normally conducted in the following phases: the team inserts or  
infiltrates into the objective area; the objective area is sealed off from  
outside support or reinforcement, to include the enemy air threat; any enemy  
force at or near the objective is overcome by surprise and violent attack,  
using all available firepower for shock effect; the mission is accomplished  
quickly before any surviving enemy can recover or be reinforced; the ranger  
force quickly withdraws from the objective area and is extracted. (The team  
can land on or near the objective and seize it before the enemy can react.  
Thus you avoid forced marches over land carrying heavy combat loads. If there  
is no suitable landing area near the objective, or the enemy has a strong  
reaction force nearby, the team has to land unseen far from the objective. It  
then assembles and moves to the objective).
e) ambush.
Depending on terrain ambushes are divided into near (less than 50 meters, in  
jungle or heavy woods) and far (beyond 50 meters, in open terrain).
Raids consist of clandestine insertion, brief violent combat, rapid  
disengagement, swift deceptive withdrawal. The raid is used mostly to destroy  
command posts, communication centers and supply dumps, shipyards, electrical  
generation facilities, water pumping stations, phone lines, oil or natural  
gas pipelines, radio and TV stations, mountain passes or routes in restricted  
terrain, capture supplies and personnel, rescue friendly forces, distract  
attention from other operations, steal plans and code books, rescue prisoners  
of war, create havoc in the enemyâ€™s rear areas, blow railroads and bridges.  
By blowing bridges you block and delay the movement of personnel and supplies  
and by making railroads and certain routes temporary useless you change  
enemyâ€™s movement on to a small number of major roads and railway lines  
where it is more vulnerable to attack by other forces (especially air  
strikes).

Stages of an ambush:

1. Planning. You have to identify a suitable killing zone (a place where the  
ambush will be laid). Itâ€™s a place where enemy units are expected to pass  
and which gives reasonable cover for the deployment execution and extraction  
phases of the ambush patrol. Ambush includes 3 main elements: surprise,  
coordinated fire of all weapons to isolate the killing zone and to inflict  
maximum damage and control (early warning of target approach, opening fire at  
the proper time, timely and orderly withdrawal). You can also plan a  
mechanical ambush, which consists of the mines set in series. Preparation.  
You have to deploy into the area covertly, preferably at night and establish  
secure and covert positions overlooking the killing zone. Then you send two  
or more cut off groups a short distance from the main ambushing group into  
similarly covert positions â€” they have to give you early warning of  
approaching enemy by radio and, when the ambush is initiated, to prevent any  
enemy from escaping. Another group will cover the rear of the ambush position  
and thus give all-round defense to the ambush patrol. No smoking! Attention:  
you have to occupy the ambush site as late as possible â€” this reduces the  
risk of discovery. (While choosing and ambush site pay attention to natural  
cover and concealment for your team, routes of entry and withdrawal, good  
observation and fields of fire, harmless-looking terrain, few enemy escape  
routes, terrain that will canalize enemy into the killing zone, and natural  
obstacles to keep him there).
2. Execution. You must give a clear instruction for initiating the ambush. It  
should be initiated with a mass casualty producing weapon (mortars and  
machine guns) to produce a maximum shock effect and break the enemyâ€™s  
spirit to fight back (shock effect can cover unexpected defects in ambush,  
like ambushing a much larger force that expected). Then, after the firefight  
has been won, the ambush patrol has to clear the zone by checking bodies for  
intelligence and taking prisoners. After that you have to leave the area as  
soon as possible, by a pre-determined route.
3. Disruption of the government functions: recruitment of informants; terror  
and murders of political leaders and federal and local government chiefs,  
provoking strikes and mass disobedience; publishing illegal newspapers and  
literature; anti-government propaganda through illegal radio stations;  
involving locals in the guerrilla campaign.
4.Counter-guerrilla.

Chapter 9. Guerrilla warfare.

   Guerrilla warfare  is the unconventional warfare and combat with which a  
small group use mobile tactics (ambushes, raids, etc) to fight a larger and  
less mobile regular army. THIS IS ABSOLUTELY WRONG â€“ they sabotage the rear  
! Same mistake Soviet guerrillas did during World War II , though Chechnya is  
an example.
  Guerrilla tactics are based on intelligence , ambush, deception, sabotage,  
undermining an authority through long, low-intensity confrontation. A  
guerrilla army may increase the cost of maintaining an occupation above what  
the foreign power may wish to bear. Against a local regime, the guerrillas  
may make governance impossible with terror strikes and sabotage, and even  
combination of forces to depose their local enemies in conventional battle.  
These tactics are useful in demoralizing an enemy, while raising  the morale  
of the guerrillas. In many cases, a small force holds off a much larger and  
better equipped army for a long time, as in Russiaâ€™s Second Chechen War.
  Guerrilla operations include attacks on transportation routes, individual  
groups of police and military, installations and structures, economic  
enterprises and targeted civilians, politicians included. Attacking in small  
groups, using camouflage and captured weapons of that enemy, the guerrilla  
force  can constantly keep pressure on its foes and diminish its numbers,  
while still allowing escape with relatively few casualties. The intention of  
such attacks is not only military but political, aiming to demoralize target  
populations or governments, or goading an overreaction that forces the  
population to take sides for or against the guerrillas. Ambushes on key  
transportation routes are a hallmark of guerrilla operations, causing both  
economic and political disruption.
   Whatever the particular tactics used, the guerrillas primarily fight to  
preserve his forces and political support, not capture or hold specific  
territory as a conventional force would.
   Guerrilla warfare resembles rebellion, yet it is a different concept.  
Guerrilla organization ranges from small, local, rebel groups of a few dozen  
guerrillas , to thousands of fighters, deploying from cells to regiments. In  
most cases, the leaders have clear political aims for the warfare they wage.  
Typically, the organization has political and military wings, to allow the  
political leaders â€œplausible denialâ€ for military attacks. Guerrillas  
operate with a smaller logistical footprint compared to conventional  
formations. A primary consideration is to avoid dependence on fixed bases and  
depots which are comparatively easy  for conventional units to locate and  
destroy. Mobility and speed are the keys and wherever possible, the guerrilla  
must live off the land, or draw support from the civilian population in which  
he is embedded.  Financing  of operations ranges from direct  individual  
contributions (voluntary or not), and actual operation of business  
enterprises by  insurgent operatives, to bank robberies, kidnappings and  
complex financial networks based on kin, ethnic and religious affiliation  
(such as used by Jihad organizations). Permanent and semi-permanent bases  
form part of the guerilla logistical structure, usually located in remote  
areas or in cross-border sanctuaries sheltered by friendly regimes.
   Guerrilla warfare is often associated with a rural setting (mujahedeen and  
Taliban in Afghanistan, the Contras of Nicaragua). Guerrillas however  
successfully operate in urban settings (as in Jerusalem, Israel or Baghdad,  
Iraq). Rural guerrillas prefer to operate in regions providing plenty of  
cover and concealment, especially heavily forested and mountainous areas.  
Urban guerrillas blend into the population and are also dependent on a  
support base among the people.

   Intelligence is very important; collaborators and sympathizers will usually  
provide a steady flow of information.

   Public sources of information and Internet serve very well, too.  
Intelligence is concerned also with political factors such as occurrence of  
an election or the impact of the potential operation on civilian and enemy  
morale.
   Able to choose the time and place to strike, guerrillas possess the  
tactical initiative. Many guerrilla strikes are not undertaken unless clear  
numerical superiority can be achieved in the target area. Individual  suicide  
bomb attacks offer another pattern, involving only one individual bomber and  
his support team. Whatever approach is, guerrillas hold the initiative and  
can prolong their survival through varying the intensity of combat. This  
means that attacks are spread out over quite a range of time, from weeks to  
years. During interim periods, the guerrilla can rebuild, resupply, train,  
provide propaganda indoctrination, gather intelligence, infiltrate into army,  
police, political parties and community organizations,

   Relationships with civil population are influenced by whether the  
guerrillas operate among a hostile  or friendly population. A friendly  
population is of huge importance to guerrillas, providing shelter, supplies,  
financing, intelligence and recruits. Popular mass support in a confined  
local area or country however is not always strictly necessary. Guerrillas  
can still operate using the protection of a friendly regime, drawing  
supplies, weapons, intelligence, local security and diplomatic cover. The  
Al-Qaeda is  an example of the latter type, drawing sympathizers and support  
primarily  from the wide-ranging Arab world.
   Foreign support (soldiers, weapons, sanctuary or statements of sympathy for  
the guerrillas can greatly increase the chances of an insurgent victory.  
Foreign diplomatic support  may bring the guerrilla cause to international  
attention, putting pressure on local opponents to make concessions, or  
garnering sympathetic support and material assistance. Foreign sanctuaries  
can add heavily to guerrilla chances, furnishing weapons, supplies, materials  
and training bases. Such shelter can benefit from international law,  
particularly if the sponsoring government is successful in concealing its  
support  and in claiming â€œplausible denialâ€ for attacks by operatives  
based on its territory. Al-Qaeda , for example, made effective use of remote  
territories, such as Afghanistan under the Taliban regime , to plan and  
execute its operations.
   Terror is used by guerrillas to focus international attention on the  
guerrilla cause, kill opposition leaders, extort money from targets,  
intimidate the general population, create economic losses, and keep followers  
and potential defectors in line. Such tactics may backfire and cause the  
civil population to withdraw its support, or to back countervailing forces  
against the guerrillas. Such situations occurred in Israel, where suicide  
bombings encouraged most Israeli opinion to take a harsh stand against  
Palestinian attackers, including general approval  of  â€œtargeted  
killingsâ€ to kill enemy cells and leaders. Civilians may be attacked or  
killed for alleged collaboration, or as a policy of intimidation and coercion  
â€“ operations are sanctioned by the guerrilla leaders if they see a  
political benefit. Attacks may be aimed to weaken civilian morale so that  
support for the guerrilla opponents decreases. The use of attacks against  
civilians to create atmosphere of chaos ( and thus political advantage where  
the atmosphere causes foreign occupiers to withdraw or offer concessions), is  
well established in guerrilla and national liberation struggles.
   Examples of successful guerrilla warfare against a native regime include  
the Cuban Revolution, Chinese Civil War, Sandinista Revolution in Nicaragua.  
Many coups and rebellions in Africa reflect guerrilla warfare, with various  
groups having clear political objectives and using the above mentioned  
tactics (Uganda, Liberia). In Asia, native or local regimes have been  
overthrown by guerrilla warfare (Vietnam, China, Cambodia). Unsuccessful  
examples include Portuguese Africa (Angola, Mozambique and Guinea-Bissau),  
Malaysia (then Malaya), Bolivia, Argentina and the Philippines. The  
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, fighting for an independent homeland in the  
north and east of Sri Lanka, achieved significant  military successes against  
the Sri Lankan military and the government itself for twenty years. It was  
even able to use these tactics effectively against the peace keeping force   
sent by India .



INSURGENCY

1.Leadership
   Insurgency is not simply random political violence; it is directed and  
focused political violence. It requires leadership to provide vision,  
guidance, coordination and organizational coherence. The leaders of the  
insurgency must make their cause known to people. They must gain popular  
support, and their key tasks are to break the ties between the people and the  
government and to establish their movementâ€™s credibility. They must replace  
the governmentâ€™s legitimacy  with that of their own. Their education,  
background, family, social connections and experience shape how they think,  
what they want , and how they fulfill their  goals. Leadership is both a  
function of organization and of personality. Some organizations de-emphasize  
individual personalities and provide mechanisms for rebundancy and  
replacement in decision making; these mechanisms produce collective power and  
do not depend on specific leaders or personalities to be effective. They are  
easier to penetrate but more resilient to change.  Other organizations may  
depend on a charismatic personality to provide cohesion, motivation, and a  
rallying point for the movement. Leadership organized  in this way can  
produce decisions and initiate new actions rapidly, nut it is vulnerable to  
disruption if key personalities are removed or co-opted.

2. Ideology.
   To win, insurgency must have a program that justifies its actions and  
explains what is wrong with society. It must promise great improvement after  
the government is overthrown. Ideology guides the insurgents in offering  
society a goal. The insurgents often express this goal in simple terms for  
ease of focus. The insurgent leader can use ideology to justify the use of  
violence and extralegal action in challenging the current social order, and  
to form a framework of the program for the future. Ideology identifies those  
sectors of society which the insurgency targets. Ideology may suggest  
probable objectives and tactics. It greatly influences the insurgentâ€™s  
perception of his environment. The combination of the insurgentâ€™s ideology  
and his perception of his environment shapes the movementâ€™s organizational  
and operational methods.

3.Objectives.
   The strategic objective is the insurgentâ€™s desired end state â€“ that is  
, how the insurgent will use power once he has it.
Operational objectives are those which the insurgents pursue as part of the  
overall process of destroying government legitimacy and progressively  
establishing their desired end state. The following are examples of  
operational objectives:
-isolation of the government from diplomatic and material support, and  
increased international support for the insurgency
-destruction of the self-confidence of the governmentâ€™s leaders, cadre and  
armed forces, causing them to abdicate or withdraw
-establishment of civil cervices and administration ion areas under insurgent  
control
-capture of the support (or neutrality) of critical segments of the  
population

Tactical objectives are the immediate aims of insurgent acts, for example,  
the dissemination of a psychological operation product or the attack and  
seizure of a key facility. These actions accomplish tactical objectives which  
lead to operational goals.

4.External support.

There are four types of external support:
- moral â€“ acknowledgement of the insurgent cause as just and admirable
- political â€“ active promotion of the insurgents strategic goals in  
international forums
- resources â€“ money, weapons, food, advisors, training
- sanctuary â€“ secure training, operational and logistic bases

5.Organizational and operational patterns.

a)Subversive.

   Subversive insurgents penetrate the political structure to control it and  
use it for their own purposes. They seek elective and appointed offices. They  
employ violence selectively to coerce voters, intimidate officials, disrupt  
and discredit the government. Violence shows the system is incompetent. It  
may also provoke the government to an excessively violent response which  
further undermines its legitimacy. A subversive insurgency most often appears  
in a permissive political environment in which insurgents can use both legal  
and illegal methods. The typical subversive organization consists of a legal  
party supported by a clandestine element operating outside the law.  
Subversive insurgencies can quickly shift to the â€œcritical-cellâ€ pattern  
when conditions dictate. The Nazi rise to power in the 1930s is an example of  
this model. Subversive insurgencies primarily present a problem for police  
and counter-intelligence.

b)Critical-cell.

   In the critical-cell, the insurgents also infiltrate government  
institutions. Their object is to destroy system from within. The â€œmolesâ€  
operate both covertly and overtly. Normally, the insurgents do not reveal  
their affiliation or program. They seek to undermine institutional legitimacy  
and convince or coerce others to assist them. Their violence remains covert  
until the institutions are so weakened that the insurgencyâ€™s superior  
organization seizes power, supported by armed force. The Russian October,  
1917 revolution followed this pattern.
   There are variations of the critical-cell pattern, too. The first is the  
co-opting of an essentially leaderless, mass popular revolution. The  
Sandinistasâ€™ takeover of the Nicaraguan revolution is a case of point. The  
insurgent leadership permits the popular revolution to destroy the existing  
government. The insurgent movement then emerges, activating its cells to  
guide reconstruction under its direction. It provides a disciplined structure  
to control the former bureaucracy. The mass popular revolution then coalesces  
around the structure.
   A second variation of the critical-cell pattern is the foco (or Cuban  
model) insurgency. A foco is a single, armed cell which emerges from hidden  
strong holds in an atmosphere of disintegrating legitimacy. In theory, this  
cell is the nucleus around which mass popular support rallies. The insurgents  
erect new institutions and establish control on the basis of that support.   
The foco insurgencies are often made up predominantly of guerrilla fighters  
operating initially from remote enclaves. The Cuban revolution occurred in  
this manner. The Cuban experience spawned over 200 subsequent imitative  
revolutionary attempts patterned on it, principally in Latin America and  
Africa â€“ they all failed, but that does not discredit foco theory. It does  
emphasize the importance of a particular set of circumstances to this model.  
Legitimacy must be near total collapse, timing is critical.  The Nicaraguan  
insurgency for example,  combined the foco with a broad-front political  
coalition.

c)Mass oriented.

   The mass-oriented insurgency aims to achieve the political and armed  
mobilization of a large popular movement. They emphasize creating a political  
and armed legitimacy outside the existing system. They challenge  that system  
and then destroy or supplant it. These insurgents patiently build a large  
armed force of regular and irregular guerrillas. They also construct a base  
of active and passive political supporters. They plan a protracted campaign  
of increasing violence to destroy the governments and its institutions from  
the outside. They organize in detail. Their political leadership normally is  
distinct  from their military leadership. Their movement establishes a rival  
government which openly proclaims its own legitimacy. They have a  
well-developed ideology and decide on their own objectives only after careful  
analysis. Highly organized and using propaganda and guerrilla action, they  
mobilize forces for a direct military and political challenge to the  
government. Once established, mass-oriented insurgencies are extremely  
resilient because of their great depth of organization. Examples of this  
model include the communist revolution in China, the Vietcong insurgency, the  
Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path) in Peru.

d)Traditional.

   The traditional insurgency normally grows from very specific grievances and  
initially has limited aims. It springs from tribal, radical, religious or  
other similarly identifiable groups. These insurgents perceive that the  
government  has denied the rights and interests of their group and work to  
establish or restore them. The frequently seek withdrawal from government  
control through autonomy or semi-autonomy. They seldom seek specifically to  
overthrow the government or to control the whole society. They generally  
respond in kind to government violence. Their use of violence can range from  
strikes and street demonstrations to terrorism or guerrilla warfare. These  
insurgencies may cease if the government accedes to the insurgentsâ€™  
demands. The concessions of insurgentsâ€™ demands , however, are usually so  
great that the government concedes its legitimacy along with them. Examples  
of this model include the Mujahideen in Afghanistan, the Ibo revolt in  
Nigeria (Biafra), the Tami separatists in Sri Lanka.

   No insurgency follows one pattern exclusively.

Typical missions which guerrillas conduct to accomplish their goals include:  
destroying or damaging vital installations, equipment or supplies; capturing  
supplies, equipment, or key governmental or military personnel; diverting  
government forces from other operations; creating confusion and weakening  
government morale.  Remember:  guerrilla is a political war, and asymmetric  
warfare.
   Guerrillas are not normally organized or equipped for stand-and-fight type  
defensive operations. They prefer to defend themselves by moving, by  
dispersing into small groups, or by diverting the opponentâ€™s attention  
while they withdraw. Whenever possible, these operations are accomplished by  
offensive operations against the opponentâ€™s flank or rear. One of the most  
important needs of guerrilla forces is support, which can come from different  
sources â€” food can be stolen or supplied by political sympathizers, weapons  
can be gathered from raids on government installations or provided by a  
foreign power (as well as secret training and indoctrination).

Guerrillas strength:

-  highly motivated leadership and simple organization.The basic guerrilla  
organization is an independent three- to five-men cell. The cells can be  
brought together for larger operations and dispersed later. Guerrillas are  
organized into cells for two reasons: first, itâ€™s security, second, itâ€™s  
for support (guerrillas must live off the land to a large degree, and small  
cells easier support themselves).
- strong belief in a political, religious, or social cause (most of them are  
fanatics)
- ability to blend with local population and perfect knowledge of environment
- strong discipline
- effective intelligence through penetration into the government agencies
- limited responsibilities (the guerrillas usually donâ€™t have the  
responsibility to maintain normal governmental obligations toward society)
- the ability to utilize a broad range of tactics, from terror and sabotage  
through conventional warfare. They donâ€™t hesitate to use bombings,  
kidnappings, murders, torture, blackmail to press local authorities or  
provoke overreaction on the part of the government forces, so that the  
population will be alienated by the government forces actions (it happens  
when they target government leaders). In cities guerrillas can disrupt public  
utilities and services by sabotage and the government may lose control of the  
situation; they can widely use snipers and explosives there. They can  
generate widespread disturbances, attack government offices, create incidents  
or massing crowds in order to lure the government forces into a trap.
- mobility. Guerrillas usually disperse during their movements and unite near  
the target area. The most common techniques employed by them are the ambush,  
raid and small-scale attacks against security posts, small forces, facilities  
and lines of communication, using mining, booby trapping and sniping. Targets  
are selected by the guerrilla based on an analysis of how much the  
elimination of the target will disrupt the government, what the effect on the  
populace will be, the risk of being killed or captured, and the amount of  
weapons or supplies which can be used (this analysis calls for timely  
intelligence, which is gained by active patrolling).

Guerrilla Weaknesses:

- mental and physical stress, caused by long periods of isolation in an  
unstable environment
- fear of criminal prosecution by the government, or of reprisals against  
friends and family
- feeling of numerical and technological inferiority of counter-guerrilla  
forces
- limited personnel and resources, and uncertain public base of support
- security problems about their base camps (they are usually not more than  
one day march from a village or town). If guerrillas receive support from  
external sources, they are faced with a problem of security for supply lines,  
transport means and storage facilities. Besides, you have to know their  
organization and plans, resources (arms, ammunition, food and medicine  
supply), leaders and their personalities, lines of communications, relations  
with civilian population, vulnerabilities. (Again, recruit, recruit and  
recruit!). You have to evaluate also the effects of terrain (including  
landing and pickup zones) and the weather effect on men, weapons, equipment,  
visibility and mobility.

Urban guerrilla warfare has its own peculiarities. Cities and towns are  
vulnerable to urban guerrilla because they are the focus of economic and  
political power. In many cases, public utilities can be disrupted and the  
government may appear to have lost control of the situation. The  
concentration of a large number of people in a relatively small area provides  
cover for the guerrilla. However, the insurgent may find support only in a  
certain areas of a town or a city. Anyway, the urban guerrilla lives in a  
community that is friendly to him or is too frightened to withhold its  
support or betray him. In a city the snipers and explosive devices can be  
placed everywhere. The availability of large numbers of people ensures that  
crowds can be assembled and demonstrations manipulated easily. The presence  
of women and children restricts counter-guerrilla force reactions, and  
excessive force may ensure a major incident that provides the guerrilla with  
propaganda. Publicity is easily achieved in an urban area because no major  
incident can be concealed from the local population even if it is not widely  
reported by the news media. Every explosion may be exploited to discredit the  
ability of the government to provide protection and control.

   Urban guerrilla tactics:
- disrupting industry and public services by strikes and sabotage
- generating widespread disturbances designed to stretch the resources of the  
counter-guerrilla force
- creating incidents or massing crowds in order to lure the counter-guerrilla  
into a trap
- provoking the counter-guerrilla force in the hope that it may overreact (to  
provide hostile propaganda after that)
- fomenting interfactional strife
- sniping at roadblocks, outposts and sentries
- attacking buildings with rockets and mortars
- planting explosive devices, either against specific targets or   
indiscriminately, to cause confusion and destruction, and to lower public  
morale
-ambushing patrols and firing on helicopters


COUNTER-GUERRILLA  WARFARE

1.Since many insurgents rely on the population for recruits, food, shelter,  
financing, you must focus your efforts on providing  physical and economic  
security for that population and defending it against insurgent attacks and  
propaganda.
2. There must be a clear political program that can neutralize the guerrilla  
program â€“ this can range from granting political autonomy to economic  
development measures in the affected region + an aggressive media campaign.
3. You have to â€œcleanâ€ and re-build  all levels of the government   
structure â€“ usually insurgents talk about corrupted politicians a lot and  
thatâ€™s why they have support from population.
4. You donâ€™t have to overreact to guerrilla actions , because this is what  
they are looking for.
5. Use big military operations only to break up significant guerrilla  
concentrations and split them into small groups.
6. Keep insurgents on run constantly with aggressive patrols, raids,  
ambushes, sweeps, cordons, roadblocks, prisoner snatches. Intelligence and  
recruitment of informants is the key to success. (KGB in post WWII period  
used bogus guerrilla groups in Western Ukraine  that helped reveal real  
insurgents).
7. An â€œink spotâ€ clear and hold strategy must be used to divide the  
conflict area into sectors and assign priorities between them. Control must  
expand outward like an ink spot on paper, systematically neutralizing and  
eliminating the insurgents in one sector of the grid, before proceeding to  
the next. It may be necessary to pursue holding or defensive actions  
elsewhere , while priority areas are cleared and held.
  8. Mass forces, including village self-defense groups and citizen militias  
organized for community defense can be useful in providing civic mobilization  
and local security.
9. Use special units and â€œhunter-killerâ€ patrols.
10. The limits of  foreign assistance must be clearly defined and carefully  
used. Such aid should be limited either by time , or as to material and  
technical, and personnel support, or both. While outside  aid or even troops  
can be helpful, lack of clear limits, in terms of either a realistic plan for  
victory  or exit strategy, may find the foreign helper  â€œtaking overâ€ the  
local war, and being sucked into a lengthy commitment , thus providing the  
guerrillas  with valuable propaganda opportunities as the stream of dead  
foreigners mounts. Such scenario occurred with United States in Vietnam and  
since 2003 â€“ in Iraq.
11. A key factor in guerrilla strategy is a drawn-out, protracted conflict,  
which wears down the will of the opposing counter-insurgent forces.  
Democracies  are especially vulnerable to the factor of time , but the  
counter-insurgent force must allow enough time to get the job done.


   TACTICAL COUNTER-GUERRILLA OPERATIONS

1.Encirclement, which is designed to cut off all ground routes for escape and  
reinforcement of the encircled force (darkness recommended) combined with  
combined with air assault, artillery and airborne troops. And â€” itâ€™s good  
to divide the enemy while encircling.

Encirclement offers the best chance to fix guerrilla forces in position and  
achieve decisive results. The battalion and larger units will usually plan  
and conduct encirclements. The company and smaller units normally do not have  
the manpower and command  and control capability to execute encirclements  
except as part of a larger force. Encirclements require accurate intelligence  
on the location of guerrilla elements. Since it requires a major portion of  
the counterguerrilla force to execute this maneuver, it is usually targeted  
against large guerrilla forces or guerrilla base complexes, a series of  
smaller base camps clustered within area. Planning, preparation and execution  
are aimed at encircling the guerrilla force rapidly. Maximum security and  
surprise can be gained by occupying the initial  encirlclement positions  
during darkness. In large operations, air assault and airborne troops add  
speed and surprise to the operation. Positions are occupied simultaneously in  
order to block escape. If simultaneous occupation is not possible, probable  
escape routes are covered first. Initial occupation is the most critical  
period of the operation. When the guerrillas become aware that they are being  
encircled, they will probably probe for gaps or attack weak points and  
attempt to break out.

   Encircling units provide strong combat patrols far to their front to give  
early warning of attempted breakouts. Mobile reserves are positioned to  
counter a breakout and to reinforce difficult areas such as broken terrain or  
areas with caves, tunnels or fortification complexes. Indirect fire support  
can serve to cloak an encirclement  by gaining and holding the guerrillasâ€™  
attention. Fires are planned in detail to support the encirclement. Following  
completion of the encirclement, the circle is contracted to capture or  
destroy the guerrilla force. AS the circle is contracted, units may be  
removed from the line and added to the reserve. Against small guerrilla  
forces, the encircled area may be cleared by contraction and a final sweep.  
Against larger guerrilla forces, however, at some point, some action other  
than contraction will be required. One technique consists of driving a wedge  
through the guerrilla force to divide it and then destroying the guerrillas  
in each subarea. Another technique, employed after some degree of  
contraction, is to employ a blocking force on one or more sides of the  
perimeter while the remainder of the encircling force drives the guerrillas  
against blocking force. Either element may accomplish the actual destruction.  
The technique is effective when the blocking force can be located on, or  
immediately in the rear of, a natural terrain obstacle.

2. Search (of a village), which might be done in different ways:
- assemble inhabitants in a central location (if they are hostile) and then  
start the operation
- restrict inhabitants to their homes or control the heads of households (and  
take other family members to a central location) and then start the convoy  
security operation, which is one of your top priorities.

Think about ambushes and mines on the route all the time and place a strong  
attack element at the rear of the convoy where it has maximum flexibility in  
moving forward to attack guerrillas attempting to ambush the head or center  
of the convoy. At the first indication of an ambush vehicles have to move out  
of the killing zone (do not drive to roadsides or shoulders, which may be  
mined). A security team immediately returns fire from inside vehicles to  
cover dismounting personnel (if you have to stop) and then dismounts last  
under cover of the fire by those who dismounted first. Upon dismounting,  
personnel caught in a killing zone open fire and immediately assault toward  
the ambush force. Any movements of the troops and supplies are planned and  
conducted as tactical operations with effective front, flank and rear  
security.

   Search techniques in built-up areas are required when you search  either a  
few isolated huts or buildings , or for searching well-developed urban  
sections. Procedure :

a)divide the area to be searched into zones, and assign a search party to  
each. A search party consists of a search element (to conduct the search), a  
security element (to encircle the area and prevent entrance and exit, and to  
secure open areas), and a reserve element (to assist , as required). Then the  
search  element conducts the mission assigned for the operation. Normally it  
is organized into special teams. The security element surrounds the area  
while the search element moves in. Members of the security element orient  
primarily upon evaders from the populated area; however, they can cut off any  
insurgents trying to reinforce. Checkpoints and roadblocks are established.  
Subsurface routes of escape, such as subways and sewers, must be considered  
when operating in cities. The reserve element is a mobile force within a  
nearby area. Its specific mission is to assist the other two elements should  
they meet resistance they cannot handler. In addition, it is capable of  
replacing or reinforcing either of the other two elements should the need  
arise.
b)consider any enemy material found, including propaganda signs and leaflets,  
to be booby-trapped until inspection proves it is safe.
c) thoroughly search underground and underwater areas. Any freshly excavated  
ground can be a hiding place. Use mine detectors to locate metal objects  
underground and underwater.
d) deploy rapidly, especially when a guerrilla force is still in the area to  
be searched. The entire area to be searched is surrounded simultaneously. If  
this is not possible, observed fire must cover that portion not covered by  
soldiers.

3.Ambush.

   An ambush is a surprise attack from a concealed position upon a moving or  
temporary halted target. Ambushes give the counter-guerrilla force several  
advantages:

a) an ambush does not require ground to be seized or held
b) smaller forces with limited weapons and equipment can harass or destroy  
larger, better armed forces
c) guerrillas can be forced to engage in decisive combat at unfavorable times  
and places
d) guerrillas can be denied freedom of movement and deprived of weapons and  
equipment that are difficult to replace.

   Well-planned and well-executed ambushes is the most successful operational  
technique employed against guerrillas. It is an effective technique to  
interdict movement guerrilla forces within an area. Selection of the site is  
a key step in developing a well-organized ambush.
   Ambushes are executed to reduce the guerrillaâ€™s overall combat  
effectiveness. Destruction is the primary purpose of an ambush since  
guerrillas killed or captured, and equipment and supplies destroyed or  
captured, critically affect the guerrilla force. Harassment, the secondary  
purpose, diverts guerrillas from other missions. A series of successful  
ambushes causes the guerrilla force to be less aggressive and more defensive,  
to be apprehensive and overly cautious, and to be reluctant to go on patrols  
and move in convoys or in small groups.
  There are two types of ambushes. A point ambush involves patrol elements  
deployed to support the attack of a single killing zone. An area ambush  
involves patrol elements deployed as multiple, related, point ambushes. An  
ambush is categorized as either hasty or deliberate. A hasty ambush is an  
immediate action drill, an action of a combat patrol with little or no  
information. When information does not permit detailed planning required for  
a deliberate ambush, a hasty ambush is planned. In this case, ambush patrol  
plans and prepares to attack the first suitable guerrilla force. A deliberate  
ambush is planned as a specific action against a specific target. Detailed  
information of the guerrilla force is required: size, nature, organization,  
armament, equipment, route and direction of movement, and time the force will  
reach or pass certain points on its route. Deliberate ambushes are planned  
when reliable information is received on the intended movement of a specific  
force; patrols, convoys, carrying parties or similar forces establish  
patterns of size, time and movement sufficient to permit detailed planning  
for the ambush.

                                     Basic elements of an ambush are:

1.Surprise. It has to be achieved or else the attack is not an ambush.  
Surprise, which distinguishes an ambush from other forms of attack, allows  
the ambush force to seize and retain control of the situation. Surprise is  
achieved by careful planning, preparation and execution. Guerrillas are  
attacked in a manner they least expect.
2.Coordinated fires. All weapons, including mines and demolitions, are  
positioned, and all direct and indirect fires are coordinated to achieve  
isolation of the kill zone to prevent escape or reinforcement; surprise  
delivery of a large volume of concentrated fires into the kill zone to  
inflict maximum damage so the target can be assaulted and destroyed.
3.Control. Close control is maintained during movement to, occupation of, and  
withdrawal from the ambush site. The ambush commanderâ€™s control of all  
elements is critical at the time of target approach. Control measures provide  
for early warning of target approach, withholding fire until the target moves  
into the kill zone, opening fire a the proper time, initiating appropriate  
actions if the ambush is prematurely detected, lifting or shifting supporting  
fires when the ambush includes assault of the target, timely and orderly  
withdrawal to an easily recognized rallying point.

   Planning.
Planning provides for simplicity, type of ambush and deployment. The attack  
may be by fire only (harassing ambush) or may include assault of the target  
(destruction ambush).  The force is tailored for its mission. Two men may be  
adequate for a harassing ambush. A destruction ambush may require the entire  
unit (squad, platoon, company).
   An ambush patrol is organized in the same manner as other combat patrols to  
include headquarters, an assault element, a support element and a security  
element. The assault and support are the attack force; the security element  
is the security force. When appropriate, the attack force is further  
organized to provide a reserve force. When an ambush site is to be occupied  
for an extended period, double ambush forces may be organized. One ambush  
force occupies the site while the other rests, eats and tends to personal  
needs at the objective rallying point or other concealed location. They  
alternate after a given time, which is usually 8 hours. If the waiting period  
is over 24 hours, three ambush forces may be organized.
   The selection of equipment and supplies needed is based on the mission,  
size of guerrilla force, means of transportation, distance and terrain,  
weight and bulk of equipment. A primary route is planned which allows the  
unit to enter the ambush site from the rear. The kill zone is not entered if  
entry can be avoided. If the kill zone must be entered to place mines or  
explosives, care is taken to remove any tracks or signs that might alert the  
guerrillas and compromise the ambush. If mines, mantraps or explosives are to  
be placed on the far side, or if the appearance of the site might cause the  
guerrillas to check it, then a wide detour around the killing zone is made.  
Here, too, care is taken to remove any traces which might reveal the ambush.  
Also, an alternate route from the ambush site is planned.
   Maps and aerial photos are used to analyze the terrain. As far as possible,  
so-called â€œideaâ€ ambush sites are avoided. Alert guerrillas are  
suspicious of these areas, avoid them and increase vigilance and security  
when they must be entered. Considering this, an ambush site must provide  
fields of fire, concealed positions, canalization of the guerrillas into the  
killing zone, covered routes of withdrawal ( to enable the ambush force to  
break contact and avoid pursuit), no-exit route for the guerrilla force.  
Ambush force, as a rule occupies the ambush site at the latest possible time  
permitted by the tactical situation and the amount of site preparation  
required. This not only reduces the risk of discovery but also reduces the  
time that soldiers must remain still and quiet in position.
   The unit moves into the ambush site from the rear. Security elements are  
positioned first to prevent surprise while the ambush is being established.  
Automatic weapons are then positioned so that each can fire along the entire  
killing zone. If this is not possible, they are given overlapping sectors of  
fire so the entire killing zone is covered. The unit leader then selects his  
position, located where he can see when to initiate the ambush. Claymore  
mines, explosives and grenade launchers may be used to cover any dead space  
left by the automatic weapons. All weapons are assigned sectors of fire to  
provide mutual support. The unit leader sets a time by which positions are to  
be prepared. The degree of preparation depends on the time allowed. All men  
work at top speed during the allotted time. Camouflage is very important â€“  
each soldier must be hidden from the target and each one has to secure his  
equipment to prevent noise. At the ambush site, positions are prepared with  
minimal change in the natural appearance of the site. All debris resulting  
from preparation of positions is concealed. Movement is kept to a minimum and  
the number of men moving at a time is closely controlled. Light discipline is  
rigidly enforced at night.

  Point ambush
   A point ambush, whether independent or part of an area ambush, is  
positioned along the expected route of approach of the guerrilla force.  
Formation is important because, to a great extent, it determines whether a  
point ambush can deliver the heavy volume of highly concentrated fire  
necessary to isolate, trap and destroy the guerrillas. The formation to be  
used is determined by carefully considering possible formations and the  
advantages and disadvantages of each in relation to terrain, conditions of  
visibility, forces, weapons and equipment ease or difficulty of control,  
force to be attacked and overall combat situation.

1.Line formation.
   The attack element is deployed generally parallel to the guerrilla  
forceâ€™s route of movement (road, trail, stream). This positions the attack  
element parallel to the long axis of the killing zone and subjects the  
guerrilla force to heavy flanking fire. The size of the force that can be  
trapped in the killing zone is limited by the area which the attack element  
can effectively cover with highly concentrated fire. The force is trapped in  
the killing zone by natural obstacles, mines, demolitions, and direct and  
indirect fires. A disadvantage of the line formation is the chance that  
lateral dispersion of the force may be too big for effective coverage. The  
line formation is appropriate in close terrain that restricts guerrilla  
maneuver and in open terrain where one flank is restricted by mines,  
demolitions or mantraps. Similar obstacles can be placed between the attack  
element and the killing zone to provide protection from guerrilla  
counter-ambush measures. When a destruction ambush is deployed in this  
manner, access lanes are left so that the force in the killing zone can be  
assaulted. The line formation can be effectively used by a â€œrise from the  
ground ambushâ€ in terrain seemingly unsuitable for ambush. An advantage of  
the line formation is its relative ease of control under all conditions of  
visibility.

2.L-formation.
  The L-formation is a variation of the line formation. The long side of the  
attack element is parallel to the killing zone and delivers flanking fire.  
The short side of the attack element is at the end of, and at right angles  
to, the killing zone and delivers enfilading fire that interlocks with fire  
from the other leg. This formation is flexible. It can be established on a  
straight stretch of a trail or stream or at a sharp bend in a trail or  
stream. When appropriate, fire from the short leg can be shifted to parallel  
the long leg if the guerrilla force attempts to assault or escape in the  
opposite direction. In addition, the short leg prevents escape in that  
direction or reinforcement from that direction.

3.Z-formation.
   The Z-shaped formation is another variation of the L-formation. The attack  
force is deployed as in the L-formation but with an additional side so that  
the formation resembles the letter Z. The additional side may serve to engage  
a force attempting to relieve or reinforce the guerrillas, restrict a flank,  
prevent envelopment (of the ambush force), seal the end of the killing zone.

4.T-formation.
   The attack element is deployed across, and at right angles to, the route of  
movement of the hostile force so that the attack element and the target form  
the letter T. This formation can be used day or night to establish a purely  
harassing ambush, and at night to establish an ambush to interdict movement  
through open, hard-to-seal areas (such as rice paddies). A small unit can use  
the T-formation to harass, slow and disorganize a larger force. When the lead  
guerrilla elements are engaged, they will normally attempt to maneuver right  
or left to close with the ambush force. Mines, mantraps and other obstacles  
placed to the flanks of the killing zone slow the guerrillaâ€™s movement and  
permit the unit to deliver heavy fire and then withdraw without becoming  
decisively engaged. The T-formation can be used to interdict small groups  
attempting night movement across open areas. For example, the attack element  
may be deployed along a rice paddy dike with every second member facing in  
the opposite direction. The attack of a force approaching from either  
direction requires only that every second member shift to the opposite side  
of the dike. Each member fires only to his front and only when the target is  
at a close range. Attack is by fire only, and each member keeps the guerrilla  
force under fire as long as it remains to his front. If the force attempts to  
escape in either direction along the dike, each member takes it under fire as  
it comes into his vicinity. The T-formation is effective at halting  
infiltration. It has one chief disadvantage: there is a possibility that  
while spread out the ambush will engage a superior force. Use of this  
formation must, therefore, fit the local enemy situation.

5.V-formation.
   The V-shaped attack element is deployed along both sides of the guerrilla  
route of movement so that it forms a V. Care is taken to ensure that neither  
group (or leg) fires into the other. This formation subjects the guerrilla to  
both enfilading and interlocking fire. The V-formation is suited for fairly  
open terrain but can also be used in the jungle. When established in the  
jungle, the legs of the V close in as the lead elements of the guerrilla  
force approach the apex of the V, elements then open fire from close range.  
Here, even more than in open terrain, all movement and fire is carefully  
coordinated and controlled to ensure that the fire of one leg does not  
endanger the other. Wider separation of the elements makes this formation  
difficult to control, and there are fewer sites that favor its use. Its main  
advantage is that it is difficult for the guerrilla to detect the ambush  
until well into the killing zone.

6.Triangle formation.
   Closed triangle. The attack element is deployed in 3 groups, positioned so  
they form a triangle (or closed V). An automatic weapon is placed at each  
point of the triangle and positioned so that it can be shifted quickly to  
interlock with either of the others. Elements are positioned so that their  
fields of fire overlap. Mortars may be positioned inside the triangle . When  
deployed in this manner, the triangle ambush becomes a small unit strongpoint  
which is used to interdict night movement through open areas, when guerrilla  
approach is likely to be from any direction. The formation provides all-round  
security, and security elements are deployed only when they can be positioned  
so that, if detected by an approaching target, they will not compromise the  
ambush. Attack is by fire only, and the target is allowed to approach within  
close range before the ambush force opens fire. Advantages include ease of  
control, all-round security, and guerrillas approaching from any direction  
can be fired on by at least two automatic weapons. Disadvantages include the  
requirement for an ambush force of platoon size or larger to reduce the  
danger of being overturn by a guerrilla force; one or more legs of the  
triangle may come under guerrilla enfilade fire; and lack of dispersion,  
particularly at the points, increases danger from guerrilla mortar fire.

   Open triangle (harassing ambush). This variation of the triangle ambush is  
designed to enable a small unit to harass, slow, and inflict heavy casualties  
upon a larger force without being decisively engaged. The attack group is  
deployed in 3 elements, positioned so that each element becomes a corner of a  
triangle containing the killing zone. When the guerrillas enter the killing  
zone, the element to the guerrillasâ€™ front opens fire on the lead  
guerrillas. When the guerrillas counterattack, the element withdraws and an  
assault element to the flank opens fire. When this group is attacked, the  
element to the opposite flank opens fire. This process is repeated until the  
guerrillas are pulled apart. Each element reoccupies its position, if  
possible, and continues to inflict maximum damage without becoming decisively  
engaged.

   Open triangle (destruction ambush). The attack group is again deployed in 3  
elements , positioned so that each element is a point of the triangle, 200 to  
300 meters apart. The killing zone is the area within the triangle. The  
guerrillas are allowed to enter the killing zone; the nearest element attacks  
by fire. As the guerrillas attempt to maneuver or withdraw, the other  
elements open fire. One or more assault elements, as directed, assault or  
maneuver to envelop or destroy the guerrillas. As a destruction ambush, this  
formation is suitable for platoon-size or larger units; a unit smaller than a  
platoon would be in danger of being overrun. Also, control in assaulting or  
maneuvering is difficult. Close coordination and control are necessary to  
ensure that assaulting or maneuvering elements are not fired by another  
party; and the ambush site must be a fairly level, open area that provides  
(around its border) concealment for the ambush elements (unless it is a  
â€œriseâ€ from the groundâ€ ambush).

7.Box formation.
   This formation is similar in purpose to the open triangle ambush. The unit  
is deployed in 4 elements positioned so that each element becomes a corner of  
a square or rectangle containing the killing zone.  It can be used as a  
harassing ambush or a destruction ambush in the same manner as the two  
variations of the open triangle ambush.

   Area ambush

Killing zone. A point ambush is established at a site having several trails  
or other escape routes leading away from it. The site may be a water hole,  
guerrilla campsite, or known rendezvous point, or a frequently traveled  
trail. This site is the central killing zone.

Area ambushâ€ multiple point.

   Point ambushes are established along the trails or other escape routes  
leading away from the central killing zone. The guerrilla force, whether a  
single group or several parties approaching from different directions, is  
permitted to move to the central killing zone. Outlying ambushes do not  
attack (unless discovered). The ambush is initiated when the guerrillas move  
into the central killing zone. When the guerrillas break contact and attempt  
to disperse, escaping portions are intercepted and destroyed by the outlying  
ambushes. The multiple point ambush increases casualties and harassment and  
produces confusion.

  This version of the area ambush is best suited in terrain where movement is  
largely restricted to trails. It provides best results when established as a  
deliberate ambush. When there is not sufficient intelligence for a deliberate  
ambush, an area ambush of opportunity (hasty ambush) may be established. The  
outlying ambushes are permitted to attack guerrillas approaching the central  
killing zone, if the guerrilla force is small. If it is too large for the  
particular outlying ambush, the guerrillas are allowed to continue and they  
are attacked in the central killing zone.

Area ambush: â€œbaited trapâ€.

   A variation of the area ambush. A central killing zone is established along  
the guerrillaâ€™s route of approach. Point ambushes are established along the  
routes over which units relieving or reinforcing the guerrilla will have to  
approach. The guerrilla force in the central killing zone serves as a  
â€œbaitâ€ to lure relieving or reinforcing guerrilla units into the kill  
zones of the outlying ambushes. A friendly force can also be used as the  
â€œbaitâ€. The outlying point ambushes need not be strong enough to destroy  
their targets. They may be small harassing ambushes that delay, disorganize  
and cause casualties by successive contacts.

   This version can be varied by using a fixed installation as â€œbaitâ€ to  
lure relieving or reinforcing guerrilla units into the killing zone to  
overcome the installation or may use it as a ruse. These variations are best  
suited for situations where routes of approach for relieving or reinforcing  
guerrilla units are limited to those favorable for ambush.

     Unusual ambush techniques

   Spider hole ambush. This point ambush is designed for open areas that lack  
cover and concealment and other features normally desirable in a â€œgoodâ€  
ambush site. The attack element is deployed in the formation best suited to  
the overall situation. The attack element is concealed  in the â€œspider  
holeâ€ type of covered foxhole. Soil is carefully removed and positions  
camouflaged. When the ambush is initiated, the attack element members throw  
back the covers and rise from the ground to attack. This ambush takes  
advantage of the tendency of patrols and other units, to relax in areas that  
do not appear to favor ambush. The chief advantage is that the ambush element  
is vulnerable if detected prematurely.

   Demolition ambush. Dual primed, electrically detonated mines or demolition  
charges are planted in the area over which a guerrilla force is expected to  
pass. This may be a portion of as road or trail, an open field, or any area  
that  can be observed from a distance. Activating wires are run to a  
concealed observation point sufficiently distant to ensure safety of the  
ambush element. As large a force as desired or necessary can be used to mine  
the area. The ambush element remains to fire the charges, other personnel  
return to the unit. When a guerrilla force enters the mined area (killing  
zone), the element on site detonates the explosives and withdraws immediately  
to avoid detection and pursuit.

   Special ambush situation. Attacks against columns protected by armored  
vehicles depend on the type and location of armored vehicles in a column, and  
the weapons of the ambush force. If possible, armored vehicles are destroyed  
or disabled by fire or antitank weapons, landmines and Molotov cocktails, or  
by throwing hand grenades into open hatches. An effort is made to immobilize  
armored vehicles at a point where they are unable to give protection to the  
rest of the convoy and where they will block the route of other supporting   
vehicles. In alternate bounds, all except the first two vehicles keep their  
relative places in the column. The first two vehicles alternate as lead  
vehicles on each bound. Each covers the bound of the other. This method  
provides more rapid advance than movement by successive bounds but is less  
secureâ€™ it doers not allow soldiers in the second vehicle enough time to  
thoroughly observe the terrain to the front before passing the first vehicle.  
Security is obtained by the vehicle commander who assigns each soldier a  
direction of observation: to the front, flank(s) or rear. This provides each  
vehicle with some security against surprise fire from every direction and  
provides visual contact with vehicles to the front and rear. For maximum  
observation, all canvas is removed from the vehicles.

   Action at danger areas. The commander of the leading vehicle immediately  
notifies the unit leader when he encounters an obstacle or other danger area.  
Designated soldiers reconnoiter these places under cover of the weapons in  
the vehicle. Obstacles are bypassed, if possible. When they cannot be  
bypassed, they are cautiously removed. Side roads intersecting the route of  
advance are investigated. Soldiers from one vehicle secure the road junction;  
one or two vehicles investigate the side road. The amount of reconnaissance  
of side roads is determined by the patrol leaderâ€™s knowledge of the  
situation. Men investigating side roads do not, however, move past supporting  
distance of the main body of the patrol. Bridges, road junctions, defiles and  
curves (that deny observation beyond the turn) are danger areas. Soldiers  
dismount and take advantage of available cover and concealment to investigate  
these areas. The vehicle is moved off the road into a covered or concealed  
position; weapons from the vehicle cover the advance of the investigating  
personnel.



  Ambush during darkness is difficult to control, bur darkness increases the  
security of the ambush party and the confusion of those being ambushed.

4. Roadblocks and checkpoints. Element of the checkpoint force has to be  
positioned and concealed at appropriate distance from the checkpoint to  
prevent the escape of any vehicle or person attempting to turn back.

   Itâ€™s necessary to maintain a continuous check on road movement to  
apprehend suspects and to prevent smuggling of controlled items. Since  
checkpoints cause considerable inconvenience and even fear, itâ€™s important  
that the civil population understands that checkpoints are a preventive and  
not a punitive measure. Checkpoints may be deliberate or hasty. The  
deliberate checkpoint is positioned in a town or in the open country, often  
on a main road. It acts as a useful deterrent to unlawful movement. The hasty  
checkpoint is highly mobile and is quickly positioned in a town or in the  
open country. The actual location of the hasty checkpoint is designed to  
achieve quick success.

   Concealment of a checkpoint is desirable, but often impossible. The  
location should make it difficult for a person to turn back or reverse a  
vehicle without being observed. Culverts, bridges or deep cuts may be  
suitable locations. Positions beyond sharp curves have the advantage that  
drivers do not see the checkpoint in sufficient time to avoid inspection.  
Safety disadvantages may outweight the advantages of  such positions. A  
scarcity of good roads increases the effect of a well-placed checkpoint. A  
checkpoint requires adequate troops to prevent ambush and surprise by a  
guerrilla force.

5. Patrols. Used to saturate areas of suspected guerrilla activity, control  
critical roads, maintain contact between villages and units, interdict  
guerrilla routes of supply and communication, provide internal security in  
rural and urban areas, locate guerrilla units and base camps. A patrol is a  
detachment sent out by a larger unit to conduct a combat or reconnaissance  
operation. Patrolling is used when limited (or no) intelligence on guerrilla  
activity is available. Routes are planned carefully and coordinated with  
higher, lower and adjacent units, to include air and ground fire support  
elements and reserve forces. There are three key principles to successful  
patrolling: detailed planning, thorough reconnaissance, all-round security..  
It often happens that the patrol has to break the contact with a larger enemy  
(to break contact use the clock system . the direction the patrol moves is  
always 12 oâ€™clock. When contact is made, the leader shouts a direction and  
distance to move (such as â€œ7 oâ€™clock, 400 metersâ€. The leader can also  
use the system to shift or direct fire at a certain location).

   Saturation patrolling is extremely effective â€“ patrols are conducted by  
many lightly armed, small, fast-moving units and provide thorough area  
coverage. Patrols move over planned and coordinated routes which are engaged  
frequently to avoid establishing patterns. Use of saturation patrolling  
results in the sustained denial of an area to guerrilla forces as they seek  
to avoid contact with the counter-guerrilla units. In addition to harassment  
and discovery of guerrilla tactical forces, this technique provides an  
opportunity to gain an intimate knowledge of the area of operations; a form  
of reassurance to the local population that the government is concerned about  
their protection and security; a means by which information about the  
guerrilla can be obtained.

Watch out: guerillas usually try to cut the lines of communications by mining  
roads, waterways and railways, or by ambushes located adjacent to them, blow  
up bridges and tunnels.

Tracking

Footprints. You can â€œreadâ€ the following by footprints:
- the direction and rate of movement of a party
- the number of persons in a party
- whether or not heavy loads are carried
- the sex of the members of the party
- whether the members of a party know they are being followed

  If the footprints are deep and the pace is long , the party is moving  
rapidly. Very long strides and deep prints, with toe prints deeper than heel  
prints, indicate the party is running. If the prints are deep, short and  
widely spaced, with signs of scuffing or shuffling, a heavy load is probably  
being carried by the parson who left the prints. You can also determine a  
personâ€™s sex by studying the size and position of the footprints. Women  
generally tend to be pigeon-toed, while men usually walk with their feet  
pointed straight ahead or slightly to the outside. Womenâ€™s prints are  
usually smaller than menâ€™s, and their strides usually shorter. If a party  
knows it is being followed, it may attempt to hide its tracks. Persons  
walking backward have a short, irregular stride. The prints have and  
unusually deep toe. The soil will be kicked in the direction of movement. The  
last person in a group usually leaves the clearest footprints. Therefore, use  
his prints as the key set.
   Use the box method to count the number of persons in the group. Up to 18  
persons can be counted. Use it when the key prints can be determined. To use  
this method, identify a key print on a trail and draw line from its heel  
across the trail. Then move forward to the key print of the opposite foot and  
draw a line through its instep. This should form a box with the edges of the  
trail forming two sides, and the drawn lines forming the other two sides.  
Next, count every print of partial print inside the box to determine the  
number of persons. Any person walking normally would have stepped in the box  
at least one time. Count the key prints as one.
   Also, you can track paying attention to such things as foliage, moss,  
vines, sticks or rocks moved from their original places; stones and sticks  
that are turned over; grass that is bent or broken in the direction of  
movement.
   Staining. A good example of staining is the mark left by blood from a  
bleeding wound. You can determine the location of a wound on a man being  
followed by studying the bloodstains. If the blood seems to be dripping  
steadily, it probably came from a wound on his trunk. A wound in  the lungs  
will deposit bloodstains that are pink, bubbly, frothy. A bloodstain  
deposited from a head wound will appear heavy, wet and slimy, like gelatin.  
Abdominal wounds often mix blood with digestive juices so that the deposit  
will have an odor, and the stains will be light in color.
   Water in  footprints in swampy ground may be muddy if the tracks are  
recent. In time, however, the mud will settle and the water is clear. The  
clarity of the water can be used to estimate the age of the prints. Normally,  
the mud will clear in 1 hour, but that will vary with terrain.
   If a party knows that you are tracking it, it  will probably use camouflage  
to conceal its movements and to slow and confuse you. Remember: a  
well-defined approach that leads to the enemy will probably be mined,  
ambushed or covered by snipers.

6. Aerial search. This technique has little value in areas of dense  
vegetation. Use of search units mounted in armed helicopters should be  
limited to those operations in which sufficient intelligence exists to  
justify their use and then normally in conjunction with ground operations. In  
ground search operations, helicopters drop off troops in an area suspected of  
containing guerrillas. With the helicopters overmatching from the air, troops  
search the area. Troops are then picked up and the process is repeated in  
other areas.

7.Raid. It is an operation involving a swift penetration of hostile territory  
to secure information, harass the guerrilla or destroy the guerrilla force  
and its installation. Raids are usually targeted against single, isolated  
guerrilla base camps. To assist in attaining surprise, the raiding force uses  
inclement weather, limited visibility, or terrain  normally considered  
impassable. If night airborne or air assault raids are conducted, the force  
must be accurately inserted and oriented on the ground. Air assault forces  
supported by armed helicopters offer infinite possibilities for conducting  
raids. This type of force can move in, strike the objective and withdraw  
without extensive preparation or support from other sources.

8. Crowd dispersal.

9. Assassination of the guerrilla leader.

10. Taking hostages to press guerrillas.

11. Organization of false guerrilla units.



Meanwhile the enemy will attempt to engage you in locations where your fire  
would endanger civilians or damage their property. You have to match the size  
of the guerrilla unit. Employing a large force to counter a smaller one is  
inefficient because it compromises the chance of achieving surprise.

Psychological Operations

Psychological operations (PSYOP) in foreign internal defense include  
propaganda and other measures to influence the opinions, emotions, attitudes,  
and behavior of hostile, neutral, or friendly groups to support the  
achievement of national objectives. There are 5 major target groups for  
PSYOP:
1. Insurgents. The major PSYOP objective here is to discredit the insurgents  
and isolate them from he population. The most important direction of attack  
is against their morale. Themes should publicize and exploit differences  
between cadre, recruits, supporters, and the local population. Other themes  
might stress lack of support, isolation, homesickness, and hardship. Amnesty  
programs are often useful in neutralizing insurgents, and they are most  
effective when they are well publicized, directed against lower ranking  
members of the insurgency, and offer sufficient reason and benefits for  
quitting the unit. These programs do, however, have several disadvantages:  
they recognize the insurgents as a legitimate political force, they forgo  
punishment of anyone accepting amnesty, and they increase the image of the  
insurgentsâ€™ threat.
2. The population supporting the insurgents. You have to achieve withdrawal  
of support for the insurgents and a total defection. Propaganda should  
highlight the insurgents shortcomings, ultimate government victory,  
government successes, and the practical advantages of surrendering or of  
accepting amnesty.  Sometimes, displays of military might are used; invading  
forces may assemble and parade through the streets of conquered towns,  
attempting to demonstrate the futility of any further fighting. These  
displays may also include public executions of enemy soldiers, resistance  
fighters, and  other conspirators. Particularly in antiquity, the death or  
imprisonment of a popular leader was sometimes enough to bring about a quick  
surrender. However, this has often had the unintended effect of creating  
martyrs around which popular resistance can rally.
3. The uncommitted population. The major mission here is to build national  
morale, unity, and confidence in the government. There should also be a major  
effort to win popular acceptance of the government force, and convince the  
people that government programs serve their interests, the government forces  
can protect them, ultimate government victory is assured. This may be  
accomplished through re-education, allowing  conquered citizens to  
participate in their government, or, especially in impoverished or besieged  
areas, simply by providing food, water and shelter.
4. Government personnel. When targeting government personnel, seek to  
maintain loyalties and develop policies and attitudes which will result in  
group members who will realize the importance of popular support, promote  
public welfare and justice, take action to eliminate the basic causes of the  
subversive insurgency, and protect the population. You have to indoctrinate  
the host country security and military forces regarding the importance of the  
civilian population support. When government personnel interact with neutral  
and non-hostile elements of the population, the emphasis should be positive  
and constructive.
5. Foreign audiences. There are two major groups to be addressed: neutral  
nations and hostile nations. For neutral nations, the purpose of  
psychological operations is to achieve friendly neutrality or active support  
for your side. For hostile powers, the major objective of these operations is  
to influence public opinion against involvement in supporting the insurgency.  
Besides, you have to use psychological operations to establish and maintain a  
favorable image of our country. The themes most useful in establishing that  
image are that the US presence is requested by the host country government,  
it is legal and necessary, it is temporary, and it is advisory. Intelligence  
operations are facilitated by employing psychological operation media to  
inform the people that they should report to the proper authority information  
pertaining to strangers, suspicious persons, and guerrilla activities.  
Posters and leaflets provide definite instruction as to persons and places  
that are available to receive the information (indicate what rewards are  
available).


         Vietnam

The Viet Cong used â€œhit and runâ€ attacks involving a small group ,  
usually hiding in ambush and attacking a larger force, only to retreat  
seconds later. This reduced the advantages of the conventional forceâ€™s  
advanced weapon systems. It gave an ambushed squad no time to call in  
artillery or air strike. Booby traps  ( like simple spikes, incorporated into  
various types of traps , for example, in camouflaged pit into which a man  
might fall) were another common tactic among guerrillas. Grenade traps  
(poised with the pin removed) were also used. Moving them would take the  
pressure off the lever, causing the grenades to explode. Camouflage was very  
important, and fighters travelled in small groups, often wearing civilian  
clothes to make it difficult for American soldiers to know who they were.  
Often, they would in tunnels underground. Tunnels and â€œspider holesâ€ were  
often used to spring ambushes on American troops. The Vietcong would wait for  
part of American formation to pass before coming out of the ground and  
opening fire. Before the Americans had a chance to realize where the fire  
came from, the Vietcong would duck back into the trenches. This often caused  
fratricide (friendly fire incident) because soldiers who were ambushed would  
fire back behind them, hitting other American patrols. American troops,  
usually assigned to Vietnam for a one-year tour of duty, found themselves  
ill-trained to wage a war against a mostly invisible enemy.

      Afghanistan

   When the Stinger missile was introduced to Mujahideen, they began to ambush  
Soviet helicopters and fixed wing aircraft at airfields. The Stinger was  
effective only up to 15,000 feet (4,600 m), so Mujahideen would attack  
aircraft as they were landing or taking off. Soviets modified their tactics:  
helicopters stayed over friendly forces, fixed wing aircraft began flying  
higher, and armor and electronic defense systems were added to aircraft to  
help protect them from Stinger. Also, Spetsnaz ( Special Forces) were used  
extensively. They would be flown into areas where Mujahideen often passed,  
had been seen or were ambushing someone. Tanks and aircraft were of  
comparatively little use. The only technology with a significant impact on  
Mujahideen were land mines and helicopters. As the Soviets got stalled , they  
began punishing the local population for supporting Mujahideen. It was not  
uncommon for Soviet helicopters to raze an Afghan village in retaliation for  
an attack against Soviet soldiers. They also dropped mines from aircraft in  
fields and pastures and shot livestock with machineguns. Another common  
tactic was to cordon off and search villages for Mujahideen.

       Chechnya (Russia)

   The conflict between Russia and Chechen terrorists has been mostly a  
guerilla war. Most fighting was done with the support of armored vehicles,  
artillery and aircraft, rather than infantry. Russian soldiers were not  
prepared for urban warfare in Grozny (the capital of Chechnya). Terrorists  
would hide on the top floors and basements of buildings armed with small arms  
and anti-tank weapons. The Russians came in with convoys of armored vehicles  
which were unprepared for the tactics the terrorists would use. Chechen  
ambush tactics were planned, and involved destroying the first and the last  
vehicle (armored personnel carrier or a tank) in the column. This was done by  
either rocket propelled grenade(RPG) or improvised explosive device. If the  
initial attack was successful, the rest of the convoy would be trapped in  
between. Later Russians used artillery and airstrikes more extensively.  
Terrorists changed their urban combat  tactics and used fire-teams of three  
fighters : a machine gunner, a sniper and a fighter armed with rocket  
propelled grenade. As a result, a very small and mobile fire-team could meet  
any potential sizable threat with great effectiveness. Chechen snipers used  
to wound Russian soldiers and pick off their rescuers. They also shot off  
antennas from the moving armored personnel carriers â€“ since this was often  
the only means of communication with the command center, the troops inside  
would end up isolated and attacked with RPG or by the sniper as they tried to  
repair the antenna. As Russia controlled more area, ambushes gave place to  
roadside bombings, and these usually involved modified mines and improvised  
explosive devices.

           U.S. â€“ Iraq war (2003-present)

  Suicide bombers attack American soldiers at checkpoints, on patrols, on  
their bases and in convoys. Iraqis used the same tactics Chechen terrorists  
used against convoys.


                                MILITARY INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATIONS

Abwehr , a  German intelligence organization from 1921 to 1944).

One of the known Abwehrâ€™s successful actions was â€œOperation Nordpolâ€,  
which was an operation against the Dutch underground network, which at the  
time was supported by the British Special Operations Executive (SOE). In  
March 1941, Abwehr forced a captured SOE radio operator to transmit messages  
to Britain in a code that the Germans had obtained. Even though the operator   
gave every indication that he was compromised, the receiver in Britain did  
not notice that. Thus the Germans had been able to penetrate the Dutch  
operation and for two years, capturing agents that were sent and sending  
false intelligence and sabotage reports until the British caught on.
  But in general Abwehr was not an effective organization, because much of its  
intelligence deemed politically unacceptable to the German leadership. Then,  
Wilhelm Canaris, the Abwehr Chief, was anti-Nazi - he personally gave false  
information which discouraged Hitler from invading Switzerland and persuaded  
Francisco Franco not to allow German forces to pass through Spain to invade  
Gibraltar; he was involved in July 20,1944 assassination attempt on Hitler.

   The incident which eventually resulted in the dissolution of the Abwehr is  
known as the â€œFrau Solf Tea Partyâ€, which took place on September  
10,1943. Frau Johanna Solf, the widow of Dr.Wilhelm Solf, a former Colonial  
Minister and ex-Ambassador to Japan, had been involved in the anti-Nazi  
intellectual movement in Berlin. At a tea party hosted by her, a new member  
was included ith circle, an attractive young Swiss doctor named Reckse (the  
Gestapo agent), who reported to Gestapo on the tea party and turned over  
several incriminating documents. The Solf circle was tipped off and had to  
flee fo their lives, but they were all rounded up on January 12, 1944 and  
executed, except Frau Solf and her daughter, the Countess Lagi Graffin von  
Ballestrem. One of those  executed was Otto Kiep, an official in the Foreign  
Office, who had friends in the Abwehr, among whom  were Erich Vermehren and  
his wife, the former Countess Elizabeth von Pettenberg, who were stationed as  
agents in Istanbul. Both were summoned to Berlin by the Gestapo in connection  
with  the Kiep case. Fearing for their lives, they contacted British and  
defected.  It was mistakenly believed in Berlin that the Vermehrens absconded  
with Abwehrâ€™s secret codes and turned them over to the British. Despite the  
efforts of the Abwehr to shift the blame to the RSHA or even to the Foreign  
Ministry, Hitler had had enough of Canaris and he told so Himmler twice. He  
summoned Canaris for a final interview and accused him of allowing the Abwehr  
to â€œfall into bitsâ€ â€“ Canaris agreed that it was â€œnot surprisingâ€  
as Germany was already losing the war. On February 18,1944 Hitler signed a  
decree that abolished the Abwehr â€“ itâ€™s functions were taken over by the  
RSHA. This action deprived the army of  an intelligence service of its own  
and strengthened Himmlerâ€™s control over the generals.

GRU ( Russian Army General Staff MAIN INTELLIGENCE AGENCY), Russia

   The undercover residency  is one of the basic forms of intelligence set-up  
for the GRU abroad. The minimum number of  staff for residency is two â€“ the  
resident and a radio/cipher officer. The resident is the senior  
representative of the GRU in any given place and answerable to the head of  
GRU only. He has the right to send any officer, including his own deputies,  
out of the country immediately. He must have a minimum of three to five years  
of successful work as an operational officer and three to five years as the  
deputy resident before his appointment. A resident in a large residency will  
hold the military rank of major-general, in small residences that of colonel.  
In some very large residencies, and also where there is big activity on the  
part of GRU illegals, there is a position called deputy resident for illegals  
(the undercover residency and the illegal residency are completely separate,  
but often the undercover residency is used to rescue illegals.
  An illegal residency is an intelligence organization comprising a minimum of  
two illegals, usually the resident and a wireless operator, and a small  
number of agents (at least one) working for them. Gradually, as a result of  
recruiting new agents, the residency may increase in size. More illegals may  
be sent out to the resident, one of whom may become his assistant. The GRU  
does not have large residences. Five illegals and eight to ten agents are  
considered the maximum, but usually the residencies are much smaller than  
this. In cases where the recruitment of new agents has gone well the GRU  
divides the residency in two parts. Thereafter any contact between the two  
new residencies is forbidden, so that if one residency is discovered the  
other does not suffer.

Defense Intelligense Agency  (DIA), USA

DIA is a major producer and manager of military intelligence for the  
Pentagon, with about 8000 people working worldwide. DIA has major operational  
activities at the Pentagon, the Defense Intelligence Analysis Center, Bolling  
Air Force Base in Washington,D.C., the Armed Forces Medical Intelligence  
Center in Fort Detrick, Maryland, and the Missile and Space Intelligence  
Center in Huntsville, Alabama. The DIAâ€™s mission is to provide timely and  
objective military intelligence to warfighters, policymakers, and force  
planners. To help weapon systems planners and the Defense community, DIA  
plays a major role in providing intelligence on foreign weapon systems.

       Structure.

Directorate for Human Intelligence
Defense Attache System
Strategic Support Branch (linguists, field analysts, case officers,  
interrogation experts,      technical specialists, special forces). Defense  
Secretary Donald Rumsfeld created it to bypass the limitations of the CIA  
after 9/11
Directorate for MASINT  and Technical Collection
Collects measurements and signature intelligence which is any intelligence  
that does not fit within the  definitions of Signals Intelligence, Imagery  
Intelligence, and Human Intelligence. This includes radar intelligence,  
acoustic intelligence, nuclear intelligence, and chemical and biological  
intelligence.
Directorate for Analysis.
Analyzes and disseminates finalized  intelligence products for the DIA from  
all sources as well as from partner Intelligence Community agencies. Analysts  
focus on the military issues that may arise from political or economic events  
in foreign countries and also analyze foreign military capabilities,  
transportation systems, weapons of mass destruction, and missile systems, and  
contribute to National Intelligence Estimates and to the Presidentâ€™s daily  
briefing. Analysts serve DIA in all of the agencyâ€™s facilities as well as  
in the field.
Directorate for Intelligence Joint Staff.
Advises and supports the Joint Chiefs of Staff with foreign military  
intelligence for defense policy and war planning.




               WHAT AND TO WHOM WE SOLD IN 2007

                The United Arab Emirates, $10.4 billion

â€¢288 Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missile interceptors
â€¢9 Patriot Fire Units, including 10 phased array radar sets, 10 engagement  
control stations on trailers, and 37 launching stations.
â€¢216 Guidance Enhanced Missile-T (GEM-T)
â€¢224 AIM-120C-7 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles
â€¢200 Guided Bomb Unit Joint Direct Attack Munition Tail Kits
â€¢More than 1,100 2,000-pound and 500-pound bombs.
               Iraq ,$4.9 billion

â€¢980 High Mobility Multi-Purpose Wheeled Vehicles
â€¢123,544 M-16A4 rifles and various ammunition
â€¢Upgrades for 30 UH-1 Huey helicopters, various armored vehicles, and  
trucks
â€¢Logistics support for three C-130E aircraft
â€¢Various medical supplies, equipment, and training
â€¢Miscellaneous spare parts and ammunition
                Australia ,$3.76 billion

â€¢24 F/A-18E/F Super Hornets
â€¢Armaments for F/A-18E/F Super Hornets, including 47 AIM-9X SIDEWINDER  
missiles
               Taiwan ,$3.72 billion

â€¢Upgrades and refurbishments for three existing Patriot anti-missile fire  
units
â€¢144 SM-2 Block IIIA STANDARD ship-based missiles
â€¢12 P-3C anti-submarine aircraft with T-56 engines
â€¢60 AGM-84L HARPOON Block II missiles
â€¢218 AIM-120C-7 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles and 235 AGM-65G2  
Maverick missiles
                Morocco $2.89 billion

â€¢24 T-6B Texan aircraft
â€¢24 F-16C/D Block 50/52 combat aircraft with engines
â€¢60 M109A5 155mm self-propelled howitzers
               Israel , $2.5 billion

â€¢2,000 Radio Frequency TOW 2A anti-tank missiles
â€¢1,700 HELLFIRE missiles of various types
â€¢100 Patriot Guided Enhanced Missiles Plus (GEM+)
â€¢90,000,000 gallons of JP-8 aviation fuel and 42,000,000 gallons of diesel  
fuel
â€¢200 AIM-120C-7 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles
â€¢500 AIM-9M SIDEWINDER missiles
â€¢30 RGM-84L HARPOON Block II missiles
â€¢3,500 MK-84 general purpose bomb units

             BONUS
                                      Part IV.                     TOP    
INVESTIGATIONS.

                                                                        (a   
united anti-CIA file).





Chapter  I.           What Happened to Them?


Whenever somebody investigating an important murder or kidnapping starts to  
get close to the truth, a hue and cry goes out labeling him a conspiracy  
freak or an attention-seeker. Of course, some murders are the result of a  
conspiracy or, if you prefer, a complex and highly-coordinated plan. For  
professionals, this sort of business is normal and we use terms like  
â€œcaseâ€ or â€œfile.â€ Since criminology was part of my education at a  
special counter-espionage school and I understand perfectly well what kind of  
operation is behind the fact and what crime is behind the evidence, I offer  
some analysis not found in the many hundreds of books that struggle to  
untangle this mystery, some analysis that might answer a few questions in the  
minds of the Kennedy  families and the British royal family, among others.

Case 1.

Name: Heinrich Muller. GESTAPO Chief, convicted war criminal (World War II).
Last seen: April 24, 1945

Question 1. What was the GESTAPO doing during World War II?
â€œThe head of the Jewish section in the GESTAPO, and the man directly  
responsible for carrying out the mass extermination program against the Jews  
by GESTAPO, Obersturmbannfuehrer Eichmann, estimated in his report to Himmler  
that 2,000,000 Jews had been killed by shootings, mainly by the Einsatz  
Groups of the SIPO during the campaign in the East. This did not include the  
estimated 4,000,000 sent by the GESTAPO for extermination in annihilation  
camps.â€ â€” The International Military Tribunal, Nurnberg, 1946, Volume II,  
Chapter XV, p. 282
Question 2. What happened to Heinrich Muller? US government agency officers  
would not approve my private investigation of GESTAPO crimes and Heinrich  
Mullerâ€™s post-war activity. That in itself is a strong suggestion that  
Muller was secretly transferred to the USA and put to work for the CIA. And  
itâ€™s even understandable â€” the â€œcold warâ€ needed his experience.
Question 3. Why hasnâ€™t Henry Kissinger, the leader of the Bilderberg group  
and one of the most influential US politicians, who knows the CIA perfectly  
well, said anything about it?

Case 2.

Name: Marilyn Monroe. Movie star, drug addict, unbalanced personality with  
four suicide attempts, sex maniac, a very lonely person with unhappy family  
history and a â€œCommunistâ€ according to her FBI and CIA files.
Date of death: August 5, 1962, murdered.
Official version: Staged suicide with barbiturates overdose

Â· Marilyn had information on plans for the JFK assassination, and a lot of  
people needed to have her silenced

Look, on August 1,1962  MarilynMonroe signed a  $1,000,000 contract with the  
20th Century Fox: $5000,000 for â€œSomething Got to Giveâ€ and additional  
$500,000 for a new musical â€œWhat a Way to Goâ€ and then, four days later  
she â€œcommitted suicideâ€ ?
This case is a very special one. First, unlike other VIP murders, itâ€™s  
still not clear how she was killed; second, according to the People magazine  
(1999), Marilyn is voted the Sexiest Woman of the Century.
    Despite physical autopsy and toxicological tests, itâ€™s still not clear  
how she was killed; and given her links to the Kennedys as well as crime  
leaders and others there are plenty of theories as to who needed her dead,  
and why. In this way, her story resembles that of JFKâ€™s murder.

The evidence allows for the following possibilities, and others as well,  
which need not be mutually exclusive:

Mafia boss Sam Giancana killed Monroe to set up Robert Kennedy, who had  
publicly declared war on organized crime
Joseph Kennedy, the two brothersâ€™ father, hired Giancana to kill Monroe  
because she was pregnant with Robertâ€™s child and tried to blackmail him
The CIA killed Monroe to get even with JFK for the Bay of Pigs fiasco  
(because her death could compromise him)
JFK gave the order to kill Monroe, because she knew too much about his murky  
activities, and then he was killed by â€œItalian friendsâ€ of her former  
husband Joe DiMaggio.  (The 3 August 1962 CIA document, written two days  
before Marilyn Monroeâ€™s death, reveals that some  high government officials  
were in a state of extreme anxiety over the fact that Kennedy brothers (John  
and Robert) had been imparting sensitive information to Marilyn, and that she  
was writing a lot of it down her little red â€œdiary of secretsâ€.

Â·           [my view] Marilyn had information on plans for the JFK  
assassination, and a lot of people needed to have her silenced

Â·  The most popular version of Monroeâ€™s death is connected to two  
â€œprobableâ€ visits Attorney General Robert Kennedy and two other men made  
that day, demanding  her â€œdiaryâ€ with notes about conversations with both  
Kennedys regarding  top secret national security matters. So, on August  
4,1962 she refused to give her diary to Robert Kennedy. Heleft and the  
witnesses stated that Marilyn was â€œscared out of her mind and at the same  
time terribly angryâ€. Looks like she or somebody very close to her (a  
child, born or adopted) were threatened. OK. Robert Kennedy  was back  the  
same night and killed her injecting (using enema or suppositorium)  
barbiturates overdose and staging a suicide.
          First,  Robert Kennedy wasnâ€™t looking for a diary, tape or picture  
â€“ he was looking for something  you can not copy. What was that ? Second,  
Robert Kennedy knew through FBI and CIA surveillance that in March 1962 she  
had a meeting in Mexico City with Frederick Field, her psychiatristâ€™s close  
friend and American Communist Group leader, and talked to him on above  
mentioned secret national security matters which is espionage. Robert Kennedy  
did nothing to stopher â€“ why ? Third, in 1955 Marilyn through her manager  
applied for a visa in the Soviet Embassy in Washington,D.C., though she never  
travelled to the USSR â€“ why ? (Inside KGB rumors circulated about her  
secret visit to the USSR and sex with the Soviet leader Nikita Kchrushchev  
â€“ it was a gift  from President Kennedy).

Now, once again â€” what was Robert Kennedy looking for? If Senator Edward  
Kennedy helps me to answer the question, we might come very close to  
â€œcrackingâ€ the case.
I hate when big, strong and healthy men kill a woman and thatâ€™s against all  
the rules â€” donâ€™t kill kids and women. Trust me, Iâ€™ll get those guys  
â€” dead or alive.



Case 3.

Name: John F. Kennedy. 35th American President
Date of death: April 4, 1963, murdered; shot by snipers.
Reason: His decision to liquidate the CIA.

Like Marilyn Monroe, John Kennedy was a sex maniac and that kind of activity  
can upset a lot of people; that alone could have provided a motive for  
murder, when you take a look at the endless list of his partners beginning  
with movie stars like Marilyn Monroe, Sophia Loren, Audrey Hepburn, Judy  
Campbell, Jayne Mansfield, and finishing with his wifeâ€™s press secretary,  
his own secretaries and regular prostitutes like the above mentioned Ellen  
Rometsch. Everybody who starts an â€œinvestigativeâ€ book on this case  
dreams of putting a final dot and giving the ultimate explanation.
What is a conspiracy? Itâ€™s when you ask a simple question and nobody wants  
to answer it. Besides, if you ask the wrong questions you get the wrong  
answers, as with the Warren Commission. Letâ€™s ask some good questions and  
answer them ourselves. Actually, it doesnâ€™t matter who was shooting -  
Oswald or a can of soda. I have different questions.

Question 1. What would have happened if the snipers missed the target or  
Kennedy survived, being merely wounded? A sniper is a human being - he makes  
mistakes.
Answer. Quite possibly, Kennedy would have won the 1964 Presidential election  
and then conceivably his brothers, Robert and Edward, would keep the Oval  
Office until 1984 (count the years for yourself). No war in Vietnam. The CIA  
would have been shut down. The FBI and Pentagon would have been â€œcleaned  
upâ€ and â€œcleaned out.â€
Question 2. Why would the CIA, FBI and big business behind them, not to  
mention others who had their eye on the Oval Office, take such a huge risk?
There was no risk at all â€” they used the "passive sabotage" method - you  
don't touch those who want to kill President until they finish the job.   
There was no â€œhuge conspiracy with hundreds of people involved" - CIA  
Director John McCone + FBI Director  Edgar Hoover combination worked good  
enough.
Question 3. Why was Kennedy murdered in public?
President Kennedy was a sick man, taking a lot of different pills every day.  
He had Addisonâ€™s disease which, in addition to susceptibility to infection  
can cause weakness, weight loss and low blood pressure; so he was taking  
cortisone. For his back pain Dr. Max Jacobson injected him (and Jackie) with  
a mixture of unspecified (!) multivitamins, hormones, steroids, enzymes, and  
animal organ cells. Kennedy also used cocaine, marijuana, hashish and even  
LSD, especially during dates with women, including prostitutes â€”- for many  
people this was not a secret. There were enough opportunities to stage a  
death in private.
But this had to be a public execution with a very clear message for the next  
Presidents - â€œDonâ€™t touch the CIA!â€ and it worked. Bill Clinton was  
ready to follow Kennedy and fight CIA, â€œa state inside a state,â€ but  
Jackie Kennedy gave him a nice tip. Hillary Clinton says so in her book,  
Living History: â€œJackie... she never came out and said it, but she meant  
that he [Bill Clinton] might also be a target. â€˜He has to be very  
careful,â€™ she told me.â€œVery careful.â€
Question 4. What was the rush?
Something extraordinary happened that forced the plottersâ€™ hand and I think  
most probably it was Kennedyâ€™s decision to name Martin Luther King as his  
running mate. President talked about it with his brother Robert and his  
assistants - Oâ€™Brien and Oâ€™Donnell, and then there was a leak.

Ultimate questions.

The US Congress closed to the public 40,000 documents on the case, promising  
to de-classify them in 40 years. In 2003 the US Congress (no doubt, under  
Senator Edward Kennedyâ€™s pressure), called for another 40 years. Why?  
Whatâ€™s behind all the above mentioned names? I wish we could live long  
enough to find out.
President Bill Clinton visited President Kennedyâ€™s grave on the first day  
of his first presidency. Yet President Clinton, for whom President Kennedy  
was an idol and an icon, did nothing during his 8-year-long chaos at the  
White House to gain access for us to the above mentioned documents. Why?
And one more â€œwhyâ€: why did President Johnson order a halt to the  
investigation on â€œNumecâ€ and â€œPermindexâ€ companies right after JFK  
was killed? Those two companies allegedly delivered 280 kilograms of stolen  
uranium to Israel, and Kennedy controlled the investigation himself.



Case 4.

Name: Martin Luther King, Jr. Pastor, prominent black civil rights leader.
Date of death: April 4, 1968, murdered; shot by a sniper.
Reason: Political popularity and his decision to campaign for the US  
President

Question 1: What is the US military best kept secret? The â€œAlpha 184â€  
team.

On April 4, 1968, Martin Luther King, Jr. was shot dead on the Lorraine Motel  
balcony in Memphis, Atlanta. In a room in a house across the  street  the FBI  
found fingerprints of a Missouri penitentiary fugitive, James Earl Grey, a  
professional armed robber. He fled to Great Britain but was arrested in June  
and extradited to the United States. He was sentenced to 99 years and died in  
1998, claiming until his last days he was a patsy.
In 1967, a year before King was shot, Military Intelligence formed part of  
the US Army Intelligence Command (USAINTC) based at Fort Holobird, Maryland.  
Its task was to collect information on American citizens, including civil  
rights leaders. USAINTC took control of seven of the eight existing Military  
Intelligence Groups (MIGs) in the continental United States and Germany. The  
eighth, the 902nd, was under the command of the Armyâ€™s Assistant Chief of  
Staff for Intelligence Major General William Yarborough (in 1966-1968), the  
founder of Green Berets. MIGs were responsible for audio and visual  
surveillance and coordinated their work with FBI and CIA. The above mentioned  
902nd MIG was a most secretive organization, inside of which there existed  
the â€œOperation Detachment Alpha 184â€ team. On April 4, 1968 it was  
deployed in Memphis.
Any further questions would have to be asked of the Defense Department.



Case 5. SPECIAL.

Name: Pope John Paul II (born Karol Wojtyla).
Date of assassination attempt: May 13, 1981; shot by a gunman.
Reason: Popeâ€™s intent to investigate the illegal activity of the Vatican  
Bank.

On May 13, 1981 Pope John Paul II was shot and critically wounded by Mehmet  
Agdca, a Turkish gunman, as he entered St. Peterâ€™s Square to address the  
audience. Agdca was caught and sentenced to life imprisonment. In 1983 John  
Paul II visited the prison and spoke privately with Agdca for 20 minutes, and  
after that made a statement: â€œWhat we talked about will have to remain a  
secret between him and me. I spoke to him as a brother whom I have pardoned  
and who has my complete trust.â€

An Italian parliamentary commission, after its own investigation, concluded  
that the Soviet Union was behind the attempt, in retaliation for Popeâ€™s  
support to â€œSolidarity,â€ the Polish anti-Communist workersâ€™ movement.  
Its report stated that the Bulgarian secret service was utilized to prevent  
the Soviet Unionâ€™s role from being uncovered, but during his 2002 visit to  
Bulgaria the Pope himself declared that this country had nothing to do with  
the assassination attempt. Unless a lone, mad Turk picked up the gun on a  
whim, there was a conspiracy involved. Who was behind it, and why?

File 1. The Vatican Bank, the first partner.

The Vatican Bank (Institute for Religious Works) is the central bank of Roman  
Catholic Church; its CEO reports directly to a committee of cardinals and to  
the Pope. Itâ€™s known that in the 1990s the Bank invested over $10 billion  
in foreign companies. In 1968, due to a change in Italian financial  
regulations which would have mandated more transparency â€” it began to  
appear that the Bank was laundering money for big business. (The Bank was  
supposed to funnel all profits directly and immediately to charity.) To  
prevent a public scandal Pope Paul VI enlisted Michele Sindona as papal  
finance advisor to sell off assets and move money overseas. Sindona had been  
chiefly responsible for the massive influx of money when he began processing  
the Gambino crime familyâ€™s heroin money (taking a 50% cut) through a shell  
corporation â€œMabusi.â€ This was accomplished with the help of another  
banker, Roberto Calvi, who managed the Banco Ambrosiano. Both Sindona and  
Calvi where members of â€œPropaganda Dueâ€ (P2) Masonic Lodge and close  
friends to its headmaster, the neofascist Licio Gelli, who worked for  
â€œGladioâ€(see file #3). Sindona was poisoned in 1986 in prison in Italy,  
and weâ€™ll talk about Calvi too, donâ€™t worry. When Pope John Paul I  
succeeded Pope Paul VI on August 26, 1978 he ordered Cardinal Jean Villot,  
papal Secretary of State and Head of papal Curia, to investigate the Vatican  
Bank operations. Just 33 days later, after informing Villot that he was going  
public with the scandal (and firing Villot, among others), John Paul I died.  
The official cause of death was â€œpossibly associated to a myocardial  
infarctionâ€ (heart attack), though no autopsy was performed.
On October 22, 1978, Karol Wojtyla, 58, was inaugurated as Pope John Paul II.  
The youngest pope in Roman Catholic Church history, he thought he would  
strengthen his position first; but the explosive situation with the Vatican  
Bank impelled him to act.

File 2. Banco Ambrosiano, the second partner.

The Vatican Bank was the above mentioned Banco Ambrosianoâ€™s main  
shareholder and knew well that its Chairman, Roberto Calvi, was funding P2.  
In 1981 police raided the office of P2 Grandmaster Licio Gelli and found  
evidence against Calvi, who was arrested and sentenced to four years in jail.  
However, he was released pending an appeal, and kept his position in the  
bank. On May 13, 1981, Pope John Paul II was shot in Rome, and survived. In  
1982 it was discovered that Ambrosio Bank could not account for $1,287  
billion. Calvi fled Italy on a false passport. His personal secretary,  
Graziella Corrocher, left a note denouncing Calvi before jumping from her  
office window to her death. On June 17, 1982, Calviâ€™s body was found  
hanging beneath Blackfriars Bridge in London. His suit was stuffed with rocks  
and a brick had been placed in his trousers. The British police treated his  
death as suicide, but after 1992 exhumation concluded it was a murder. In  
2003 City of London Police reopened the investigation.

File 3. â€œGladio,â€ the third partner.

Mehmet Agdca was a member of the â€œGrey Wolves,â€ an ultra-nationalist  
Turkish terror organization, infiltrated by â€œGladioâ€ â€” a CIA and NATO  
sponsored super-secret paramilitary terror organization in Italy with  
branches all over Western Europe. â€œGladioâ€ was a part of a clandestine  
â€œstay-behindâ€ operation to counter communist influence after World War  
II, but like all other branches was actually never used â€œto resist Soviet  
influence or invasion.â€ Still, the structures exist even now (what for?).  
â€œGladioâ€™sâ€ existence was acknowledged in 1990 by the head of the  
Italian government, Giulio Andreotti. Further investigations revealed links  
to neo-fascists, the mafia and law-breaking P2 Masonic Lodge. The following  
was passed on November 22, 1990.

European Parliament Resolution on the â€œGladioâ€ Affair

A. Having regard to the revelation by several European governments of the  
existence for 40 years of a clandestine parallel intelligence and armed  
operations organization in several Member States of the Community,
B. Whereas for over 40 years this organization has escaped all democratic  
controls and has been run by the secret services of the states concerned in  
collaboration with NATO,
D. Whereas in certain Member States military secret services (or uncontrolled  
of branches thereof) were involved in serious cases of terrorism and crime as  
evidenced by various judicial inquiries,
E. Whereas these organizations operated and continue to operate completely  
outside the law, since they are not subject to any parliamentary control and  
frequently those holding the highest government and constitutional posts are  
kept in the dark as to these matters,
F. Whereas the various â€œGladioâ€ organizations have at their disposal  
independent arsenals and military resources which give them an unknown strike  
potential, thereby jeopardizing the democratic structures of the countries in  
which they are operating or have been operating,
G. Greatly concerned by the existence of decision-making and operational  
bodies which are not subject to any form of democratic control and are of a  
completely clandestine nature at a time when greater Community cooperation in  
the field of security is a constant subject of discussion,
64. Condemns the clandestine creation of manipulative and operational  
networks and calls for a full investigation into the nature, structure, aims  
and all other aspects of these clandestine organizations or any splinter  
groups, their use for illegal interference in the internal political affairs  
of the countries concerned, the problem of terrorism in Europe and the  
possible collusion of the secret services of Member States or third  
countries;
65. Protests vigorously at the assumption by certain US military personnel at  
SHAPE and NATO of the right to encourage the establishment in Europe of a  
clandestine intelligence and operational network;
66. Calls on the governments of the Member States to dismantle all  
clandestine military and paramilitary networks;
67. Calls on the judiciaries of the countries in which the presence of such  
military organizations has been ascertained to elucidate fully their  
composition and modus operandi and to clarify any action they may have taken  
to destabilize the democratic structure of the Member States;
68. Requests all the Member States to take the necessary measures, if  
necessary by establishing parliamentary committees of inquiry, to draw up  
complete list of organizations active in this field, and at the same time to  
monitor their links with the respective state intelligence services and their  
links, if any, with terrorist action groups and/or other illegal practices;
69. Calls on the Council of Ministers to provide full information on the   
activities of these secret intelligence and operational services;
70. Calls on its competent committee to consider holding a hearing in order  
to clarify the role and impact of the â€˜Gladioâ€™ organization and any  
similar bodies;
71. Instructs its President to forward this resolution to the Commission, the  
Council, the Secretary-General of NATO, the governments of the Member States  
and the United States Government.


By now the following code names of other â€œGladioâ€ branches are known:
SDRA 8 -  in Belgium ,ABSALON - in Denmark, TD BJD - in Germany ,LOK - in  
Greece , Stay-Behind -  in Luxemburg , I&amp;O - in Netherlands ,ROC - in Norway
,AGINTER - in Portugal , P26 - in Switzerland , Counter-Guerrilla - in Turkey  
, OWSGV - in Austria

The code names of the branches in France, Finland, Spain and Sweden remain  
unknown. In 1996, five years after the Soviet Union collapsed, Austrian  
President Thomas Klestil and Chancellor Franz Vranitsky insisted that they  
knew nothing of the existence of the secret, illegal CIA-NATO army and they  
demanded that the United States launch a full-scale investigation into the  
violation of Austriaâ€™s neutrality, which was denied by President Bill  
Clinton. Was Mr. Clinton covering terrorists who tried to kill the Pope?

Case  6.

Name:  Robert Kennedy, the U.S. Senator and 1968 presidential election  
candidate, JFK brother.
Date of birth: November 20, 1925
Date of death: June 5, 1968
Method:  shot by Palestinian immigrant Sirhan Sirhan, a psycho and a loser,  
in Los Angeles Ambassador Hotel kitchen pantry one minute after Kennedy left  
a ballroom celebration in the wake of winning the California Democratic  
presidential primary. There was  zero security. Threâ€™s also a theory of a  
second gunman with a silenced pistol.
Reason: Candidate Robert Kennedy stated that investigation of the President  
Kennedyâ€™s assassination would be one of the most important issues in case  
he was elected to the Oval Office.

Case 7. Ronald Brown, US Commerce Secretary.

Date of death: April 3, 1996, murdered. Method: staged air crash. Another 34  
passengers also died, mostly businessmen and officials from the Commerce  
Department, along with Jim Lewek, a CIA analyst, Nathaniel Nash, New York  
Times reporter, and the crew. According to my take on the evidence, Brown was  
most probably killed on board the plane before the crash and that means that  
his death was â€œdouble guaranteed.â€

Soon after the crash dispatcher at Croatiaâ€™s airport â€œcommitted  
suicide,â€ supposedly because he felt guilty about the crash (no doubt it  
was a staged suicide).

Reason: In 1993 Vice President Gore and Russian Prime Minister Chernomyrdin  
signed a 20-year $12 billion deal under which Russia would ship its  
weapons-grade uranium to the United States (the actual value of such an  
amount of weapons-grade uranium, Russian experts calculate, would have been  
$12 trillion. They call this supersecret agreement one of the â€œcrimes of  
the century.â€ Questions abound in any multibillion bribe with a former  
Russian President and a former US President involved. Ronald Brown most  
probably knew too much and tried to press Bill Clinton. (Besides, Brown was  
already under investigation by a special investigator and was about to be  
indicted with 54 others â€” and he spoke publicly of his willingness to  
â€œmake a dealâ€ with the prosecutors. Once the background to the situation  
is known, it becomes apparent he was not talking about the IRS. In a moment  
weâ€™ll also look at several Russians who tried to investigate this crime and  
died mysteriously in Russia.

   (Thereâ€™s a very interesting Chinese â€œtraceâ€ too and his name is Wang  
Jun, the son of the late PRC President Wang Zhen, was Chairman of the China  
International Trade and Investment Company, the most powerful and visible  
conglomerate in China and the President of Polytechnologies Corporation, an  
arms-trading company and the largest and most profitable of the corporate  
structures owned by Chinese army. Wang was publicly known in the United  
States for his role in the 1996  presidential campaign finance scandal and  
for Polytechnologiesâ€™ indictment stemming from its 1996 attempt to smuggle  
2,000 Chinese AK-47 assault rifles into the United states. He attended the  
White House â€œcoffeeâ€ with President Clinton in February 1996 and met with  
Commerce Secretary Ronald Brown the following day. He was also connected to  
$600,000 in illegal campaign contributions made by Charlie Trie to the US  
Democratic National Committee )

Bill Clinton in his over 1,000-page memoir My Life (2004) wrote nothing   
about this â€œdeal of a century.â€  Look,

â€œIn the afternoon [April, 3, 1993] we [Clinton and Russian President  
Yeltsin] agreed on a way to institutionalize cooperation, with a commission  
headed by Vice President Gore and Russian Prime Minister Victor Chernomyrdin.  
The idea was developed by Strobe [Talbott] and Georgi Mamedov, the Russian  
Deputy Foreign Minister, and it worked better than any of us could have  
imagined, thanks largely to the consistent and concentrated efforts made over  
the years by Al Gore and his Russian counterparts in working through a host  
of difficult, contentious problemsâ€ [p. 507].

(What did you make of that? Nothing?)

â€œOn January 30 [1996], Prime Minister Victor Chernomyrdin of Russia came to  
the White House for his sixth meeting with Al Gore. After they finished their  
commission business, Chernomyrdin came to see me to brief me on events in  
Russia and Yeltsinâ€™s prospects for reelectionâ€ [p. 697].

(Again â€” nothing).

Questions:
What idea was â€œdevelopedâ€ by Talbot?
What extremely secret commission was â€œheaded by Gore and Chernomyrdinâ€?
Why Mr. Clinton was so happy that â€œit worked better than any of us could  
have imaginedâ€?
What â€œdifficult and contentious problemsâ€ were Al Gore and others working  
through?
What â€œcommission businessâ€ did Al Gore and his partner finish on January  
30, 1996?

File 1. Why did this secret Commission appear right after Bill Clinton  
entered the Oval Office in 1993 and what was the â€œbusinessâ€ President  
Clinton still doesnâ€™t want to talk about?

At their summit meeting in Vancouver, in April 1993, President Clinton and  
President Yeltsin created the U.S.â€“Russian Joint Commission on Economic and  
Technological Cooperation. Since then it has become known as the  
Goreâ€“Chernomyrdin Commission (GCC), after its co-chairmen US Vice President  
Al Gore and Russian Prime Minister Victor Chernomyrdin. The Commissionâ€™s  
original mandate was to support cooperation between the United States and  
Russia in the areas of space, energy and high technology.

In fact it was a ruse to mask work on a non-proliferation agreement to  
convert highly enriched uranium (HEU) taken from dismantled Russian nuclear  
warheads into low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel to be sold to customers in the  
USA and worldwide through the USEC (United States Enrichment Company). USEC  
was created in 1993 as a government corporation with the mission to  
restructure the US governmentâ€™s uranium enrichment operation and to prepare  
it for sale to the private sector. (On April 26, 1996 Bill Clinton signed  
into law the USEC Privatization Act.) The HEU Agreement required the United  
States to purchase through USEC 500 metric tons, $12 billion worth, of HEU.  
Yes, thatâ€™s the market price, but President Yeltsin sold nearly the whole  
stock of Russiaâ€™s military uranium for one thousandth of its actual cost in  
terms of petroleum equivalent â€” one ton of military grade uranium is  
equivalent to 100 million tons of oil â€” or several Persian Gulfs).  
President Clinton was very interested in a contract and personally asked  
President Yeltsin to keep to its terms.

File  2. What documents we are talking about?

Goreâ€“Chernomyrdin September 1â€“2, 1993 Russian-American Agreement on HEU  
deal. (The full document is not available).
Goreâ€“Chernomyrdin January 6, 1996. The Russian Ministry of Atomic Energy  
and the US Department of Energy agreed to create a Russian-American  
Consortium on fuel elements to develop environmentally safe and marketable  
fuel cell power sources.
Goreâ€“Chernomyrdin February 8, 1997. Memorandum of Cooperation in the Field  
of Research on Fundamental Properties of Matter. In a prelude to the  
U.S.â€“Russian summit in Helsinki, Gore and Chernomyrdin met in Washington to  
sign a joint statement on nuclear materials security and continued to make  
progress on other arms control related matters, such as implementation of the  
1993 HEU Agreement.

File 3. Dead Russians.

Three Russian statesmen tried to investigate the Goreâ€“Chernomyrdin deal â€”  
Ruvim Nureyev, Lev Rokhlin, Yuri Shchekotchikhin. All of them are dead now.

1. Ruvim Nureyev. The Russia Chief Inspector for Nuclear and Radiation  
Safety, who strongly opposed the deal, was found dead on the railroad tracks  
in June 1996. The incident was described as a suicide.
2. Lev Rokhlin. The Russian State Duma Deputy Lieutenant General Lev Rokhlin  
was a politician of rare honesty and brevity, who refused to accept the Hero  
of Russia Gold Star from Pavel Grachev, then Minister of Defense, because he  
believed Grachev was corrupt. Being elected to the Duma he fought government  
corruption and advocated the resignation of Russian President Yeltsin, who  
fought back and managed to remove Rokhlin from the Defense Committee  
chairmanship. In 1998 Rokhlin started his own official Goreâ€“Chernomyrdin  
deal investigation, requested all confidential government agreements and a  
list of high-ranked officials involved (including Chernomyrdin and Adamov â€”  
see file #4 for this one). Lev Maximov, the Nuclear Technologies Institute  
Director, who helped Rokhlin to obtain the documents, received death threats.
On July 3, 1998 Rokhlin was shot three times and killed in his house while he  
was sleeping. His wife, Tamara Rokhlina, was arrested and testified that she  
killed him â€œfor reasons of personal enmity.â€ She later recanted her  
testimony, saying she incriminated herself under threat. Rokhlinâ€™s  
bodyguard, who was there that night, testified that he heard no gunshots (the  
killers used a silencer). Within days three more dead bodies were found in  
the vicinity of the Rokhlin household and were cremated before they could be  
identified. In November 2000, Rokhlina was convicted of murder and sentenced  
to 8 years in prison, but the Supreme Court overturned the verdict and  
ordered a new trial.

On October 2, 1998 the US Congress, taking into account that Lev Rokhlin was  
a former Russian State Duma Defense Committee Chairman, asked President  
Clinton to â€œurge the Russia Government to promptly and thoroughly  
investigateâ€ the case. Of course, Bill Clinton was smart enough not to dig  
his own grave, and just ignored this resolution:

                                                                 105th  
CONGRESS
                                                                    2nd  
Session
                                                        In the House of  
Representativese
                                                               October 2, 1998

Mr.  WELDON of Pennsulvania (for himself, Mr. DICKETT, Mr. BARTLETT of  
Maryland, Mr. WATTS of Oklahoma, Mr. TAYLOR of North Carolina, Mr.  
Thornberry, Mr. GRANGER, Mr. PAPAS, and MR. CUNNINGHAM) submitted the  
following resolution, which was referred to the Committee on International  
Relations:


RESOLUTION

Expressing sympathy to the family and collegues of Lev Yakovlevich Rokhlin,  
and expressing the sense of the House of Representatives that President of  
the United States should urge the Russia Government to promptly and  
thoroughly investigate the circumstances surrounding the death of Lev  
Yakovlevich Rokhlin and to provide a full accounting of the circumstances as  
soon as practible, but no later than November 1999.
Whereas Lev Rokhlin assumed the chairmanship of the Defense Committee of the  
Duma and was the highest-ranking elected official in the Duma working on  
Defense issuesâ€¦
Whereas Lev Rokhlin became involved in investigation of illegal arms from  
Russia to Armenia and other nations.
Wheras in October 1997, Lev Rokhlin advocated the resignation of President  
Yeltsyn.
Whereas attempts were made for 6 months to remove Lev Rokhlin from his  
Committee chairmanship.
Whereas on July 3,1998, Lev Rokhlin was stripped of the chairmanship of the  
Defense Committee, but maintained his position as a member of Duma.
Whereas on July 3,1998, Lev Rokhlin was shot in the head three times and  
killed.
Whereas members of Lev Rokhlinâ€™s family have stated that Rokhlinâ€™s wife,  
Tamara Pavlovna Rokhlina, was physically abused and was threatened with death  
unless she accepted responsibility for Lev Rokhlinâ€™s murder.
Whereas Lev Rokhlinâ€™s bodyguard, who was in the home the night of the  
murder, claimed that he heard no gunshots.
Whereas three bodies were cremated by the Moscow government authorities  
before they could be identified.
Whereas any inability of Russia to provide a full accounting of the  
circumstances surrounding the death of Lev Rokhlin would raise serious  
questions about the existence of a stable democratic system in Russia:

Now, therefore, be it

Resolved,, That â€“

(1)The House of representatives expresses sympathy to the family and  
collegues of Lev Rokhlin and :
(2)it is the senmse of the House of Representatives that the President of the  
United States should urge the Russian Government â€“
(A)to promptly and thoroughly investigate the circumstances surrounding the  
death of Lev Rokhlin;
(B) to provide a full accounting of circumstances as soon as practible, but  
not later than November,1999

3. Yuri Shchekotchikhin, a famous Russian reporter and corruption fighter,  
was elected to the Russian State Duma where he served as National Security  
Committee Deputy. After Rokhlin was murdered in 1998, Shchekotchikhin  
continued his Goreâ€“Chernomyrdin investigation and concentrated his efforts  
in two directions: first, he tried to obtain the #1 Goreâ€“Chernomyrdin  
Agreement (September 2, 1993), but President Yeltsin and, since 2000,  
President Putin denied the requests; second, he started a full-scale  
investigation into the Atomic Ministry corruption and â€” against Atomic  
Minister Adamov in person (again, see file 4). On June 16, 2003, he lost  
consciousness and was taken to the Central (Kremlin) Hospital. He was  
pronounced dead after lying still unconscious for 12 days. (The official  
diagnosis â€” a flu). All medical records are still classified, but experts  
insist he was poisoned by thallium or cadmium.

File 4. Who is Eugene Adamov?

   Eugene Adamov

Professor Eugene Adamov was in 1986-1998 a Director of the NIKIET (a secret  
Research and Development Institute of Power Engineering), one of the  
Russiaâ€™s largest centers for nuclear reactors engineering for civil and  
military purposes. At the same time he was secretly involved in the  
Goreâ€“Chernomyrdin deal as chief expert on the Russian side (even Russian  
Defense Minister Igor Rodionov knew nothing about it). On August 24, 1994 he  
opened the consulting and management company â€œOmeka, Ltd.â€ registered in  
Pennsylvania (by the end of 1999 the company had assets valued of $5,080,000)  
by his wife. In 1996 he signed a forged contract between NIKIET and  
â€œOmeka,â€ and opened other companies and banking accounts in Monaco,  
Switzerland and France to start money laundering the stolen funds the US  
Department of Energy provided Russia to improve safety at Russian nuclear  
facilities.

In 1998-2001 he was a Minister of Russia for Atomic Energy, then, in  
2002-2004, adviser to the Chairman of Russian government, and finally, was  
back to NIKIET. On May 2, 2005 Adamov was arrested in Bern, Switzerland, and  
was charged with conspiracy to defraud the United States and to transfer  
stolen money and securities ($9 million), money laundering and tax evasion.  
US prosecutors demanded his extradition to the United States, but all of a  
sudden Russia did the same, asking to send Adamov back home where he would be  
faced a trial. Swiss authorities asked Adamov if he was willing to accept  
simplified extradition to the United States. He rejected that and Washington  
had to file a formal extradition request. The battle of titans began.

A regular crime with not too much money involved blew up into an  
international scandal. The American governmentâ€™s insistence looked strange  
until Bill Clinton appeared on the stage on October 5, 2005 to save Adamov  
from 60 years in jail. (Of course, he didnâ€™t show up himself. Adamov hired  
a lawyer â€” Lenny Breuer, a nice young fellow  from the Washington, DC based  
â€œCovington &amp; Burling.â€ Breuer had worked as a special Counsel to  
President Clinton in 1997-1999 and represented him in the presidential  
impeachment hearings and trial.

Now, it became clear â€” this was not a battle between Russia and USA, it was  
not a problem of international diplomacy or American justice â€” it was a  
battle between the Republicans and Democrats for the Oval Office in 2008.  
Bill Clinton had to win this struggle no matter what â€” if Adamov was  
extradited to America, he would â€œsingâ€ everything on that lovely  
Gore-Chernomyrdin business and share his federal cell with the most  
best-looking American President of the 20th century. Meanwhile President  
Bush, a Republican, needed victory to remove the Clintons from the political  
arena forever. Clinton won. On December 18, 2005 the Swiss Supreme Court  
overturned a previous ruling by the Justice Ministry, which had said that  
Adamov must first face the US courts. On December 30, 2005 Adamov was  
extradited from Switzerland to Russia, thus opening the door to the Big  
Presidential Game 2008 for Hillary Clinton.

What price will the Russians ask Hillary Clinton to pay for Adamovâ€™s  
silence, if sheâ€™s elected?

Case # 8.

Name:   Diana Spencer, Princess of Great Britain.
Date of birth:   July 1, 1961.
Date of death:  August 31, 1997 (murdered). At 12.20 A.M. her car left from  
the Ritz Hotel in Paris, and in 10 minutes  it crashed into the pillar under  
the Place dâ€™Alma Tunnel.
Method:   staged car accident. Two more persons died â€“ Dodi Al-Fayed, her  
boyfriend and Henri Paul, a driver. Bodyguard Trevor Rees-Jones survived.

Question # 1.  What was the rush ?
Mohammed Al-Fayed, Dodiâ€™s father, Egyptian-born tycoon, mlti-millionaire,  
the owner of Harrods super department store and the Paris Ritz, claims that  
British intelligence [why intelligence ? why not counter-espionage service  
?not special police unit ? â€“ M.K.] killed the couple to prevent their  
marriage and prevent a Muslim from becoming the stepfather of the future  
king. OK. On August 30  Dodi Al-Fayed bought some ring for Diana and maybe it  
was engagement ring, and maybe the ring  â€œpushedâ€ MI6 to kill Diana next  
day, August 31, and maybe on the order of  the British Royal Family, i.e.  
Queen Elizabeth. So, the Royal Family and MI6 had 24 hours only to : make a  
decision, make a plan, make a team, send the team to Paris, start physical  
and technical surveillance, prepare another operation to cover up this one  
(donâ€™t forget, itâ€™s France, not Great Britain), and  what was the rush ?   
Some mysterious ring ? Leave me alone.
Answer # 1.
It was a well-prepared special operation (staged accident and it had nothing  
to do with any rings, royal engagements or marriages.
Question # 2.
What happened to the driver, â€œpoorâ€ the Ritz security chief Henri Paul,  
with $35,000 a year and  $420,000 (almost half a million bucks !) banking  
account ? Looks like a perfect CIA insider (Iâ€™m not going to discuss rumors  
on his connection to the French and British intelligence â€“ itâ€™ll take us  
nowhere). And a very important thing about the  professional driver is â€“  
itâ€™s not a problem  to hit his own car and kill his passengers. OK.
   Henri  Paul was assigned  at the last minute to drive the couple on August  
31 from the Ritz back door (to elude the paparazzi). He tried to out-run  
paparazzi by speeding down a Riverfront Expressway, but lost somehow control  
of the Mercedes S280  near the entrance to the Alma Tunnel and crashed into a  
concrete pillar at an estimated speed  of 65 to 70 miles per hour. He died on  
impact of a severed spine and a ruptured aorta. He wasnâ€™t drunk and he  
didnâ€™t smell alcohol. Blood samples showed he had alcohol level equal to 3  
bottles of wine. The tests showed also extraordinary high (not explained  
until now) level of carbon monoxide in his blood (20.7 %), which should have  
caused a severe headache, dizziness, confusion and  absolute aversion to  
alcohol. Very heavy smokers can have a level of up to 9% , and Henri Paul  
wasnâ€™t a heavy smoker. There were no ventilation problems in his apartment,  
office or car. The gas didnâ€™t appear from inside Mercedes because no other  
passanger was affected.
Answer #2.
I told in Spies Identification about â€œgrabbing another end of the ropeâ€   
method â€“ letâ€™s modify it now.  If you ask me to stage same car accident  
followed by investigation with the same findings and evidence, I would give  
the driver a special substance (with water or food) which produces symptoms  
described above.
Question #3.
   Official French investigation concluded (and I agree) that there was a  
collision between the Mercedes and a white Fiat Uno ( auxiliary operation to  
â€œhelpâ€ Henri Paul who had to be be quite sick by that time). The prime  
suspect  appeared to be James Andanson, a paparazzo who stalked Diana before,  
the owner of the same car, but  investigation didnâ€™t find enough proof to  
charge him with the murder. On May 4,2000 he was found dead (burnt) in his  
burnt BMW in a wood, 190 miles from his home.
Answer #3.
   To make a long story short â€“ itâ€™s a regular â€œcover-upâ€ operation.  
Theyâ€™ve killed James Andanson in France for the same reason theyâ€™ve  
killed Lee Harvey Oswald in USA, before investigation could find the proof he  
had nothing to do with the case.  Because right conclusions move  
investigators forward and in a new direction, and closer to to the top.
Question #4.
In 1999 the Defense Secretary Chief  of Staff Tobert Tyrer reviewd at  
Mohammed Al-Fayedâ€™s request the DOD documents (?) and reported that they  
bore no relations to Dianaâ€™s death. The request (Iâ€™m sorry) was stupid  
and the answer was a joke.
   In 2000 Al-Fayed made a desperate move â€“ he tried, through the Columbia  
District Court to obtain the CIA (London and Paris stations), National  
Security Agency, Defense Intelligence Agency, Department of Defense,  
Department of Justice, Department of State, FBI, Executive Offiece of United  
State Attorneys, INS and Secret Service â€œrecords pertaining to the deaths  
of Diana and Dodiâ€. (I canâ€™t imagine what his lawyers  hoped to get from  
INS). He got zero and then offered $1 million for reliable information.
   In 2006 the reports in the British press claimed  that the United States  
government agencies were  listening to her phone calls; the eavesdropping was  
right up to her death, including calls from the Ritz Hotel, where she was  
staying that night. The CIA and Secret Service officials denied listening in  
on Dianaâ€™s calls.  The National Security Agency said it never tatrgeted  
Diana for eavesdropping, but indicated her name was mentioned in calls by  
other people it was monitoring. Officials said that the NSA could have  
accidentally picked up  telephone intercepts of Diana while targeting someone  
else, such as another Ritz guest.
   Now I can give a British billionaire Al-Fayed a professional advice :  
donâ€™t waste your time and recruit insider in CIA.
Answer #4.
   I couldnâ€™t understand why theyâ€™ve killed her and why  Mohammed Al-Fayed  
made the attempt to get CIA files on Diana, until in 2005 the info appeared  
about Dianaâ€™s 1995 meeting with John Kennedy Jr. in Carlyle Hotel in NYC,  
the sasme place President Kennedy used for romantic dates with Marilyn  
Monroe. Iâ€™m sure, the meeting wasnâ€™t a date â€“ they talked  about  
President Kennedyâ€™s assassination and possible cooperation in its  
investigation. CIA taped the conversation and that was the beginning of her  
and his end.

Case # 9.

Name: John Kennedy Jr.,  the â€œGeorgeâ€ magazine publisher.
Date of birth:  November 25,1960.
Date of death:  July 16, 1999 (murdered).
Method:  staged air crash. Two more persons died â€“ his wife Carolyn and her  
sister Lauren Besset.
Reason:  John Kennedy declared investigation of his fatherâ€™s death the aim  
of his life.

   All experts who tried investigate this case are divided into two parts â€“  
those who say that â€œJohn-Johnâ€ was a good pilot and those who insist that  
he was a very bad one. I donâ€™t care. What I care about is â€“ why John  
Kennedy Jr. was buried at sea with his ashes (and two passengersâ€™ ashes)  
scattered at a site close to where he died. I have I question for Senator  
Edward Kennedy who was in charge  of this mysterious funeral â€“ why there ?  
why in such a way ? to avoid exhumation ?



                       CHAPTER  2.           9/11.



Three months before September 11 catastrophe happened Iâ€™ve informed  
President  Bush and the US Senate  on national security  collapse and the CIA  
paralysis.



George W. Bush
The U.S. President
The White House Office
1600 Pennsylvania Ave, NW
Washington DC, 20500

The U.S. Senators:

Daniel Akaka, Wayne Allard, George Allen, Paul Barbanes, Max Baucus, Evan  
Bayh, Robert  Bennett, Joseph Biden, Jeff Bingaman, Christopher Bond, Barbara  
Boxer, John Breaux, Sam Brownback, Jim Bunning, Conrad Burns, Robert Byrd,  
Ben Campbell, Maria Cantwell, Jean Carnahan, Thomas Carper, Lincoln Chafee,  
Max Cleland, Hillary Clinton, Thad Cochran, Susan Collins,  Jon Corzine,  
Larry Craig, Mike Crapo, Byron Dorgan, Richard Durbin, Thomas Daschle, Mark  
Dayton, Mike DeWine, Christopher Dodd, Pete Domenici, John Edwards, Michael  
Enzi, Russ Feingold, Dianne Feinstein, Peter Fitzerald, Bill Frist, Bob  
graham, Phil Gramm, Charles Grassley, Judd Gregg, Chuck Hagel, Tom Harkin,  
Orrin Hatch, Jesse Helms, ernest Hollings, Tim Hutchison, Kay Hutchison,  
James Inhofe, Daniel Inouye, James Jeffors, Tim Johnson, Conrad Kent, Edward  
Kennedy, John Kerry, Herb Kohl, Jon Kyl, Mary Landrieu, Patrick Leahy, Carl  
Levin, Joseph Lieberman, Blanche Lincoln, Trent Lott, Richard Lugar, John  
McCain, Mitch McConnell, Barbara Mikulski, Zell Miller, Frank Murkowski,  
Patty Murray, Bill Nelson, Benjamin Nelson, Don Nickles, Jack Reed, Harry  
Reid, Pat Roberts, John Rockefeller, Rick Santorum, Charles Schumer, Jeff  
Sessions, Richard Shelby, Bob Smith, Gordon Smith, Olympia Snow, Arlen  
Specter, Debbie Stabenow, Ted Stevens, Craig Thomas, Fred Thompson, Strom  
Thurmond, Robert Torricelli, George Voinovich, John Warner, Paul Wellstone,  
Ron Wyden

United States Senate

Washington DC, 20510

June 15, 2001



Dear Mr . President. Dear US Senators:


My name is Michael Kryzhanovsky, Iâ€™m a former KGB intelligence officerâ€¦

I state that CIA as intelligence agency doesnâ€™t existâ€¦

I request the Congress hearing and investigation.

M.Kryzhanovsky





                                   THE  U.S.  SENATE â€“ 2007

    The  U.S. Senators who ignored my national security collapse warning three

     months prior to September 11,2001 terror attacks with 3,000 killed











Daniel Akaka          Wayne Allard           Max Baucus              Evan  
Bayh    Robert Bennett     Josep Biden       Jeff Bingaman  Chris Bond




  Barbara Boxer  Sam Brownback        Jim Bunning         Robert Byrd       
Maria Cantwell Thomas Carper  Thad Cochran Susan Collins





   Kent Conrad          Larry Craig               Mike Crapo     Christopher  
Dodd  Pete Domenici     Byron Dorgan Richard Durbin  John Ensign




  Michael Enzi       Russ Feingold      Dianne Feinstein   Charles  Grassley    
    Judd Gregg          Chuck Hagel      Tom Harkin     Orrin Hatch






Kay Hutchison     James Inhofe          Daniel Inouye       Tim Johnson        
   Edward Kennedy   John Kerry     Herbert Kohl



)

  Kay Hutchison   James Inhofe            Daniel Inouye            Tim Johnson  
     Edward Kennedy     John Kerry Herbert Kohl        John Kyl





Mary Landrieu     Patrick Leahy            Carl Levin           Joseph  
Lieberman  Blanche Lincoln    Trent Lott      Richard Lugar     John McCain





Mitch McConnell Barbara Mikulski   Patty Murray        Ben Nelson              
  Bill Nelson               Jack Reed         Harry Reid       Pat Roberts





  John Rockefeller Charles Schumer Jeff Sessions  Richard Shelby Gordon Smith  
Olympia Snowe Alen Specter Debbie Stabenow

  Ted Stevens         Craig Thomas    George Voinovich   John Warner     Ron  
Wyden       John Edwards







Eighteen  days  before  9/11  tragedy  happened  Iâ€™ve  got an answer from  
Hillary Clinton only.



                                              HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON

                                                           New York

                                                          SENATOR

                                               RUSSELL SENATE OFFICE BUILDING

                                                          Suite 476

                                                   WASHINGTON, DC 20510

                                                         202-224-4451

                                                    August 23, 2001



Dear Mr. Kryzhanovsky:

Thank you for contacting my office for assistance,. The trust and confidence  
that your request for assistance represents is very important to me. A  
Constituent Liaison has been assigned to handle youor matter and you should  
be hearing from my office very soon.

                                                                    Sincerely  
yours,

                                                                     Hillary  
Rodham Clinton

On September 17, 2002, a year and 6 days after September 11 tragedy happened,  
the White House answered me.



                                         THE WHITE HOUSE

                                            Washington, D.C.

                                            September 17, 2002



Dear Mr. Kryzhanovsky:



Thank you for contacting President George W. Bush for assistance with an  
agency of the federal government. I am responding on behalf of the President.  
The White House is sending your inquiry to the Department of Justice which  
will review your correspondence. This agency has the expertse to address your  
concerns. They will respond to you as promptrly as possible.

The President sends his best wishes.

                                                                Sincerely,

                                                                Desiree  
Thompson,

                                                                Special  
Assistant to the President

                                                                And Director  
of Presidential Correspondence



Now look how media responded to my warning  (June-August 2001).



â€œI donâ€™t do this kind of stuffâ€, Gregg Smith, â€œDaily Newsâ€.

â€œIâ€™ll look into itâ€, Hellen Kennedy, the â€œDaily News Washington, DC  
office.

â€œI have to meet youâ€, Steve Dunleevy, â€œNew York Postâ€.

â€œCall you backâ€, Erin, ABC.

â€œCall you backâ€, LeBlanc, CBS.

â€œCall you backâ€, NBC (a person refused to identify herself).

â€œGo to the nearest precinct and make a public recordâ€, Hailey,  
â€œNational Enquirerâ€.

â€œWe donâ€™t accept unsolicited stuffâ€, â€œThe New York Timesâ€ ( a  
person refused to identify herself).

â€œWe care about national security, but we are not going to publish your  
stuffâ€, â€œVillage Voiceâ€ (same story).



                    What happened on September 10,2001 ?


Willie Brown, San Francisco Mayor           Condoleeza Rice, the U.S.  
Secretary of State

in 1999-2004                                                    National  
Security Advisor in 2001.

On September 10,2001, San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown received a phone call  
warning him

not to fly to New York City next morning. The phone call came directly from  
National Security

Advisor  Condoleeza Rice.



When an event of this magnitude is investigated by a government-appointed  
committee (like the Warren Commission) and the conclusions presented are  
incompatible with the evidence, it is not because the Commission members are  
not clever. See that list of names, above.

Is it conceivable that, through their patently inadequate report, the  
Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States (or The 9/11  
Commission), finding themselves unable to say publicly what had actually  
happened, did what little they could by deliberately signaling that there is  
more here than meets the eye?                                          Here  
are some â€œpearlsâ€ from the report:

                                                                         WHAT   
    I    WANT


        1.  Constitutional amendment allowing immigrants to be elected the  
U.S. President.

Letâ€™s see what Constitution  says on that :â€ No  Person except a natural  
born Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this  
Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any  
Person be eligible tothat Office who shall not have attained to the Age of  
thirty five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United  
Statesâ€ (Article II of the Constitution of the United States).

  Well, itâ€™s all about the Amendment which rermoves the only legalized  
discrimination from the Constitution. Letâ€™s  read about the process:â€ The  
Congress, whenever  two thirds of both Houses shall deem it necessary, shall  
propose Amendments to this Constitution, or, on theApplication of the  
Legislatures of two thirds of the several States, shall call a Convention for  
proposing Amendments, which, in either Case, shall be valid to all Intents   
and Purposes, as Part of this Constitution, when ratified by the Legislatures  
of three fourths of the several States, or by Conventions in three fourths  
thereof, as the one or the other Mode of Ratification may be proposed by the  
Congressâ€¦â€ (Artricle V).

  Clear. And Iâ€™m not going to ask the same boring question â€“ why immigrant  
canâ€™t be elected the U.S. President  in a very special country of  
immigrants. Iâ€™m not going to ask  â€œwhy my baby who was 1 day old when he  
crossed the U.S. border will never run for the Oval Office?â€ . I know the  
answer â€“ itâ€™s damned  nativity , the  Nazi wall which divides the nation  
into â€œnaturalâ€ and â€œnaturalizedâ€ citizens. I think the 21st  century   
is a high time to destroy the wall. Itâ€™s time to give immigrants a chance.  
Itâ€™s time for democracy. Itâ€™s time to elect the  national security top  
professional to the  Oval Office. We need to get back the world superpower  
status and slow down Russia and China. We have to gety back  the power to  
direct the vector of international development. I can do that.
2.   Constitutional amendment demanding that the U.S. Vice President should  
represent political party which lost presidential election.
3.    Constitutional amendment requiring a balanced budget, and if the  
President ends a year with deficit he should be removed from the Oval Office  
by the Supreme Court.
4.    Key Cabinet members (Secretary of Defense and Attorney General) should  
be appointed by the U.S. Congress.
5.  CIA, openly anti-American federal agency, should be liquidated with  
political intelligence functions transferred to Pentagon.
6.    Defense Department should be in charge of the Presidentâ€™s security.
7.   Presidential schools, based on applied political science programs like  
â€œThe Professionalâ€ should be open at major American Universities.



U.S. Senators:

Daniel Akaka, Lamar Alexander, Wayne Allard, George Allen, Max Baucus,  Evan  
Bayh, Robert Bennett, Joseph Biden, Jeff Bingaman, Christopher Bond, Barbara  
Boxer, Sam Brownback, Jim Bunning, Conrad Burns, Richard Burr, Robert Byrd,  
Maria Cantwell, Thomas Carper, Lincoln Chafee, Saxby Chambliss, Hillary  
Clinton, Tom Coburn, Thad Cochran, Norm Coleman, Susan Collins, Kent Conrad,  
John Cornyn, Larry Craig, Mike Crapo, Mark Dayton, Jim DeMint, Mike DeWine,  
Christopher Dodd, Elizabeth Dole, Pete Domenici, Byron Dorgan, Richard  
Durbin, John Ensign, Michael Enzi, Russ Feingold, Dianne Feinstein, Bill  
Frist, Lindsey Graham, Charles Grassley, Judd Gregg, Chuck Hagel, Tom Harkin,  
Orrin Hatch, Kay Hutchison, James Inhoff, Daniel Inouye, Johnny Isakson,  
James Jeffords, Tim Johnson, Edward Kennedy, Herbert Kohl, Jon Kyl, Mary  
Landrieu, Frank Lautenberg, Patrick Leahy, Carl Levin, Joseph Lieberman,  
Blanche Lincoln, Trent Lott, Richard Lugar, Mel Martinez, John McCain, Mitch  
McConnell, Robert Menendez, Barbara Mikulski, Lisa Murkowski, Patty Murray,  
Ben Nelson, Barack Obama, Mark Pryor, Jack Reed, Harry Reid, Pat Roberts,  
John Rockefeller, Ken Salazar, Rick Santorum, Paul Sarbanes, Charles Schumer,  
Jeff Sessions, Richard Shelby, Gordon Smith, Olympia Snowe, Arlen Specter,  
Debbie Stabenow, Ted Stevens, John Sununu, Jim Talent, Craig Thomas, John  
Thune, David Vitter, George Voinovich, John Warner, Ron Wyden.



528 Hart Senate Office Building

Washington, D.C. 20510-2803


December 17,2006

Dear Senators:

Itâ€™s 21st century outside  and in the country of immigrants itâ€™s high  
time to ament the Constitution, allowing an immigrant be elected the U.S.  
President. America is being laughed at worldwide because of its total  
international impotence. America needs a fresh political blood and great  
aggressive ideas.

Your approach to immigrants is nacceptable. Since 1995 you are being taught  
how to do your job  on my â€œHow You Make Politicsâ€ handbook, brought to  
you by James Billington, the U.S. Congress Librarian. I haveâ€™n got a single  
â€œthank youâ€ from any of you. On June 21,2001, three months before 9/11  
attacks happened, Iâ€™ve warned you on the U.S. national security system  
collapse â€“ Senator Clinton was the only one who answered on August 19,2001,  
though it was too late to prevent the coming tragedy, which took the lives of  
  3000 Americans.

I have no illusions, but I do not hide my plans either. I want to run for the  
Oval Office, and thatâ€™s  why I need the above mentioned constitutional  
amendment.

I hope youâ€™ll make a correct decision this time, and it will happen in  
2007.

I hope Iâ€™ll be the first immigrant to be elected the U.S. President.

I hope I will be the first Republican to unite the nation by taking a  
Democrat,Senator Hillary Clinton, as my running mate in 2008 presidential  
race.



Michael Kryzhanovsky,

the U.S. leading national security expert







                                                                 About the  
author.

Mike (Mykhaylo) Kryzhanovsky was born in 1958 in Ukraine. He graduated from  
Chernovtsy University (BS in languages) and received an extraordinary  
specialized education at Ivano-Frankovsk State University, military college,  
the KGB counter-espionage school and the KGB Intelligence Institute.

  He was involved in secret operations since 1978, and later served as a USSR  
intelligence officer, and a member of the KGBâ€™s â€œThe Bellâ€ top secret  
anti-terror group. He was a senior intelligence officer and top US government  
expert with the National Security Service of Ukraine (NSS). His outstanding  
record of producing up to 20 top-secret government intelligence reports  
(coded telegrams) a year made him the most productive spy in KGB history, and  
his unprecedented 30-year espionage career in Russia and the USA probably  
makes him the number one  spy in the world.

  In 1992 as NSS officer he managed an illegal espionage station in Moscow,  
Russia,(operation was authorized by Nikolay Golushko, see photo) and planned  
to substitute a stand-in or double for Russian President Boris Yeltsin, who  
was the biggest threat to Ukraine at the time. There was a leak, and Yeltsin  
pushed Ukrainian President Kravchuk to sign a secret agreement to end mutual  
espionage. Kryzhanovsky learned that a decision had been made to liquidate  
him and in 1995 he came to the United States. Another KGB officer, Vladimir  
Putin, a former FSB (Russian counter-espionage service) Chief, used his plan  
and substituted  a double for Yeltsin in 2000.


My family, with Russian,Polish and Jewish roots, belongs to Russian military  
nobility, and

served the Russian Royal Court since 1650.









































http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uvG4nLRn4PI






Source: http://www.stratfor.com/
</description>
    <date>2010-07-22 09:21:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-11 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5127100_-analytical-and-intelligence-comments-the-professional.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>responses@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>prof7prof@yahoo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5129451</id>
    <title>Re: Prince Rupert infrastructure question
</title>
    <description>   Hey Marky,
   A 
   All is well here.A  Work is keeping me pretty busy, but that's all good.
   A 
   I've been up to Prince Rupert 3 times for work, so I'm pretty familiar
   with the port.A  I've mainly been focusing on the growing container
   business, so I'm not that familiar with the situation regarding pipelines.
   A 
   As far as container traffic goes, the port continues to grow, with 2010
   throughput increasing almost 30% over 2009 to 343,000 TEUs.A  The
   container terminal has capacity of 500,000 TEUs, so I think management is
   relatively satisfied with that growth.A  There is considerable interest in
   the port as it's the closest North American port to Asia - almost 3 days'
   sailing time closer than the major ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.A 
   The network of CN Rail connects Prince Rupert to all parts of Canada, but
   of more interest to many global shippers is the direct CN connections
   through Chicago and Memphis and all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico.A 
   There isn't much of a difference in rail times between LA/Long Beach to
   Chicago and Prince Rupert to Chicago, so overall there's still a
   significant time savings by shipping through Prince Rupert.A  Further,
   there are issues related to congestion in California, whereas the
   containers can get out of Prince Rupert and on their way to their next
   destination pretty quickly.A  At the same time, there are still concerns
   with the port - the container terminal has only been in operation for 3
   years, so it's still relatively "unproven", CN is the only railway to
   connect to Prince Rupert so it has a "monopoly" and can charge higher
   rates, and there are fears about the Canada/US border and whether
   aA shipment getsA stopped by US Customs.
   A 
   Many global shipping lines have visited the port to study the facilities
   first hand and discuss with management.A  Currently, there are only
   2-3A container ships that call on Prince Rupert - not a large number and
   all a part of the CKYH Alliance.A It is expected, however,A that an
   additionalA 1 or 2 ships will start calling in 2011, and that will bring
   the port closer to its capacity.
   A 
   As far as expansion plans go, the port fully expects container throughput
   to increase and is moving forward to expand its capacity to 2 million TEUs
   by 2014.A  The environmental assessment and design plans are already
   underway.A  Along with that, the port has about 1,000 acres of land that
   it plans to develop for things such as additional/expanded bulk terminals,
   a roro-terminal,A logistics facilities, warehousing, and so on.
   A 
   The port also had a record year for coal shipments, with 2010 almost
   doubling the volume of 2009.A  With increasing Asian demand, volumes are
   expected to increase.A  Ridley terminal, the coal terminal operator, has
   expansion plans already underway.
   A 
   Regarding the pipeline project, I am not as familiar with this one.A 
   Enbridge is the entity that is working on it.A  There is quite a bit of
   interest, and Sinopec has committed $100 million to the project.A  There
   is still a lot of preparatory work that needs to get done, and perhaps
   that's why I'm not very familiar with the project - it's still a little
   way off.A  Public consultations are due to continue through 2011.A  The
   government review process will continue until at least 2012.A 
   Construction could begin in 2013 and should take about 3 1/2 years.A  If
   everything runs smoothly, it could be operational by the end of 2016.
   A 
   That was a long email.A  Feel free to give me a call if you want more
   info!
   A 
   Talk to you later.
   Al

   On 21 January 2011 23:49, Mark Schroeder &lt;mark.schroeder@stratfor.com&gt;
   wrote:

     Hey there lil' bro,

     We had a little talk this morning at work about the infrastructure plans
     for Prince Rupert. This is about trade with Asia, the Asia gateway, etc.
     Have you heard any more talk on plans for expanding infrastructure there
     -- some folks are real interested (stuff like what port changes they
     have in mind in addition to new pipelines that are possible).

     Hope all is good in Tokyo. Thanks for any thoughts.
     --Mark
</description>
    <date>2011-01-24 01:26:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-06-20 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5129451_re-prince-rupert-infrastructure-question-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mark.schroeder@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>aes.jpn@gmail.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5131896</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
	CODE
</title>
    <description>   Agree
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: scott stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:59:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;; Korena Zucha&lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Anya Alfano&lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   I'll bet cash they are connected to the Austin guys busted for the DNC
   plot plus some of the Austin Earth First jabronis. 
   From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 11:51:44 -0600
   To: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Anya Alfano &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;, Alpha List
   &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Have we seen Deep Green Resistance carry-out acts of violence in the
   past? 

   On 11/16/2011 6:38 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not "radical" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the "Phoenix Commune" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as "stupid, crazy motherfuckers", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, "Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-18 21:17:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5131896_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5132037</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   Libyans also pay foreign mercenaries.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Scott Stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 22 Jul 2011 15:12:04 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
   Was the shooter a Libyan?

   On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:13:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5132037_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5135143</id>
    <title>Re: hello from sunny South Africa
</title>
    <description>   Hi Eugene,

   Great to hear from you. I hope you had a great time in Brazil. I'd love to
   get down to that area one day (and Argentina and Chile too).

   Good luck with the admin and writing. I hope you'll get a bit of a break
   this summer but I guess if your publication date is August I'm sure you'll
   be busy.

   It would be great to keep in touch on substantive stuff too. I spend a lot
   of time on energy security issues in the Gulf of Guinea -- Nigeria gets a
   lot of attention, and Angola is getting a lot more than it used too. I
   think Angola is a very interesting place, while Nigeria can be downright
   frustrating (a kind of contemporary Heart of Darkness). Equatorial Guinea
   is a dark hole too.

   You're welcome anytime. It's really nice anytime of the year, though
   Dec-Jan can get pretty humid. It's winter right now and the daily
   temperatures are in the upper 70s, extremely pleasant.

   My best,

   --Mark

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Eugene Gholz" &lt;egholz@alum.mit.edu&gt;
   To: "Mark Schroeder" &lt;mark.schroeder@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, June 18, 2008 2:33:52 PM GMT +02:00 Harare / Pretoria
   Subject: Re: hello from sunny South Africa

   Great to hear from you, Mark, and I'm glad things are going well.  I'm
   actually in Brazil for the week with a couple of colleagues working on
   developing some institutional relationships with universities down here.
    It's my first time to Brazil, so I'm glad to be on the trip.  I'm in
   Brasilia now, which is very odd -- an over-planned city, as far as I can
   tell, but I've only been here for 12 hours or something so far, so who
   really knows?
   All's well in Austin.  Busy, as always.  Lots of administrative stuff on
   the new "Global Policy Studies" degree, and I'm also writing.  My new book
   on defense policy will be out in the fall (August publication date in the
   UK; October in the U.S.).
   It's great news that the kids are well settled and that you're making
   friends.  I hope things continue to go smoothly for your work, too.  We
   should keep in touch on substantive stuff.  I think we're going to be
   doing more energy security stuff at UT in the years to come that may well
   connect to some of the African investment stuff that you're interested in,
   and I also know that a few of my colleagues are doing a lot on security
   issues connected to AIDS in Africa and also to education in various
   African countries (a bit more of a stretch for the connection to
   Stratfor).
   And of course I still dream of coming to South Africa in 2010...
   Best,
   Eugene
   On Jun 17, 2008, at 7:29 AM, Mark Schroeder wrote:

     Dear Eugene:

     How are you? I hope you're enjoying a fine beginning to summer. Any big
     plans? For our part, we are doing well here in Durban, South Africa.
     We've been here just over three months now and the time is flying by.
     It's been pretty good overall, and we finally feel we're getting a bit
     settled. Our boys James and Andrew are going to preschool here, and
     they're having a great time there. Judy has been making friends with
     other moms of preschoolers at the school and in our neighborhood. Me,
     I've been keeping busy at my home-office, aiming to get a better grip on
     all the big happenings in Africa. Nigeria and Somalia still get a lot of
     attention, and others like Congo, Angola, and Chad come and go.

     Keep well amid all that heat in Austin!

     My best,

     --Mark
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-06 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5135143_re-hello-from-sunny-south-africa-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mark.schroeder@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>egholz@alum.mit.edu</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5135517</id>
    <title>DISPATCH DISCUSSION - Aug 2 - TURKEY - Civilian Supremacy Over
	Military in the Foreign Policy Arena
</title>
    <description>   Thesis: Turkey's ruling Justice &amp; Development Party (AKP) has succeeded in
   asserting civilian supremacy over the country's erstwhile powerful
   milityary (TSK). The AKP will now like to utilize the TSK for its
   assertive foreign policy agenda. But it will take many years (if not a
   couple of decades) to materialize given the lengthy and complex task of
   reformatting the institution which was designed as the guardian of the
   secularist nature of the Turkish republic to one that can serve as a major
   instrument of an internationally resurgent Turkey.

   Three Bullet Points:

   - The reality of the AKP triumph over the TSK
   - AKP's intended role for the TSK
   - Why it is unlikely that AKP's intended vision for the TSK will take time
   to materialize

   On 8/1/11 3:52 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     Yes. Let me send the thesis and bullet points.
     On 8/1/11 3:52 PM, Brian Genchur wrote:

       Hi Kamran,
       Are you able to turn this into a Dispatch for recording tomorrow
       morning at 9:20amCT?
       Please let us know.  We'll need your thesis and bullet points
       submitted to the Analyst list as soon as possible.  
       Thank you!
       Brian
       Begin forwarded message:
       From: Reva Bhalla &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
       Subject: Re: TURnKEY - What happened today or is happening in the YSK
       meeting?
       Date: August 1, 2011 1:42:06 PM CDT
       To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
       Cc: multimedia@stratfor.com
       Reply-To: Multimedia List &lt;multimedia@stratfor.com&gt;
       what is really interesting about this to me is the sentiment you can
       see from the AKP looking forward where they understand now that they
       have made the military their subordinates.  It'll take some time for
       them to feel sure of that, but that confidence is becoming more
       apparent. At the same time, Turkey is being pushed to deal with issues
       in its periphery.  As I mentioned in an earlier insight email, the AKP
       is so embarrassed that the Iranian navy is doing all this shit while
       their military has been out of the game for decades and has spent more
       time plotting coups than anything else.  We should expect to see a
       major transformation take place in which the AKP will have to make the
       decision to revamp the military.  And that means the US-Turkey
       relationship becomes that much more important and that countries like
       Russia, Iran, etc. have something to get more nervous about

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: "Jacob Shapiro" &lt;jacob.shapiro@stratfor.com&gt;
       To: analysts@stratfor.com
       Cc: multimedia@stratfor.com
       Sent: Monday, August 1, 2011 1:25:10 PM
       Subject: Re: TURnKEY - What happened today or is happening in the YSK
       meeting?

       this might make a good dispatch for tomorrow

       On 8/1/11 1:12 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

         The reason why Turkey is not there yet is because it takes a long
         time to restructure an army towards assertive foreign policy
         purposes. And in Ankara's case, it is at the beginning of the
         process of taming the lion. Riding the beast will take even longer
         than a state which didn't have a civil-military relationship heavily
         in favor of the men in uniform for so long. The first step entails
         getting a batch of commanders who are beholden to the AKP for their
         positions. This has to be followed by ingraining a culture within
         the officers and soldiery that moves away from seeing itself as a
         praetorian force that is the sole guardian of the republic's
         Kemalist ideals to one that is the defender of the constitution
         (which btw will need to be tweaked and will take its own time). This
         culture change really sets in when the those who learn in it in the
         academy (where the curriculum will need to be revised) come to
         maturity. We are talking a generational shift. Till then there will
         always be officers and commanders who have been cultivated in the
         old culture and they will begrudgingly accept civilian dominance.
         There will also be a need to come up with a new military doctrine
         and the physical training and preparation for a military force that
         will be projecting power overseas. [Here it is useful to point out
         that while Iran lacks the military capability it is way ahead of
         Turkey in terms of culture, doctrine, and motivation]. Finally,
         there is the issue of Turkey's role as a NATO member and how that
         would begin to conflict with an assertive foreign policy. 
         On 8/1/11 1:57 PM, Emre Dogru wrote:

           I agree with this, George. AKP got half of the votes. Point. If
           the army had another choice, no commander would have resigned.
           They would have forced the government to resign like in 1960,
           1971, 1980 and 1997. They resigned because we are in 2011. Army
           tried to prevent Gul from being elected as president in 2007, it
           didn't work, and that was the beginning of the end (Ergenekon and
           Sledgehammer are just AKP's tools, and yes, they are not fake
           plots).

           In a region where some countries, such as Egypt, are becoming
           similar to what Turkey had been in 1980s and 1990s, Turkey cannot
           remain the same. As I said before, we need to move on from the
           internal Turkish army dynamics and civil-military balance to a
           more geopolitical based perspective. We need to think about how
           subordination of the Turkish army to the civilian government will
           affect Turkey's foreign policy, it's strategy to extend its
           influence beyond its borders. How will the Turkish army be
           reconstructed so that it can be effectively used as a foreign
           policy tool.

           Last time George was in Turkey, he said two things. First, Turkey
           is not "there" yet (but it acts as if it is in 2030) and it needs
           to build institutions. Second, "it must get its hand dirty" when
           needed. I believe we need to see the dramatic change within the
           military and the balance between government and the military
           within this perspective.
           George Friedman wrote:

             The nature of the republic changed with the sledgehammer
             arrests. This just makes it official 

             With the massive majority of the akp, it is inconceivable that
             turkey wouldn't change and its a fantasy to imagine that it will
             ever go back. 

             Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: Kamran Bokhari &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
             Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
             Date: Mon, 1 Aug 2011 11:00:43 -0500 (CDT)
             To: &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
             ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
             Subject: Re: TURKEY - What happened today or is happening in the
             YSK meeting?
             If this is true, then what we have is a massive change in the
             nature of the Turkish republic. 
             On 8/1/11 11:57 AM, George Friedman wrote:

               I think that sledgehammer was real and the revelations at the
               trial put the generals in an impossible position. The option
               of resistance isn't there in a country where the akp holds a
               large majority and where the danger of discrediting the
               military is real. Erdogan used this reality to move turkey
               back to the status of a normal state in which the military is
               subordinate to the government. The military can't organize a
               coup and the consequences of a coup would devastate turkey,
               and leave a majority of the population hostile. This is not
               1980 where the us and nato supported the coup. It would mean
               isolation.
               Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

               From: Kamran Bokhari &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
               Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
               Date: Mon, 1 Aug 2011 10:44:20 -0500 (CDT)
               To: Michael Wilson&lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
               ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
               Cc: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
               Subject: Re: TURKEY - What happened today or is happening in
               the YSK meeting?
               I have been wondering about the intentions of the 3-stars who
               are next in line. Do they simply accept that their institution
               is not in a position to do much at this time and move on? Some
               of them would like to get promoted and assume the top jobs. Or
               will there be some sort of backlash from these guys? Surely,
               what has happened has created debate within the corps
               commander ranks as to what should be the stance of the
               institution. There is also the concern that any stance must be
               unified such that the integrity of the institution is
               preserved. There is also of course the need to make sure that
               the AKP doesn't use any disagreements within the TSK hierarchy
               to its advantage and further enhance its upper hand. 

               The appointment of Ozel as landforces commander and acting TSK
               chief reminds me of what happened in Pakistan during the
               second term of former Pakistani prime minister Nawaz Sharif in
               1998-99. Sharif forced army chief Gen Jahangir Karamat to
               resign and we there was the highly rare instance of an army
               chief folding under pressure from a civilian govt. Sharif
               replaced Karamat with Musharraf and GHQ as an institution
               accepted the change. But then when after the Kargil war in 99
               Sharif fired Musharraf and replaced him with the then ISI
               chief Gen. Ziauddin Butt, the institution struck back and we
               had the coup that brought Musharraf to power. 

               Obviously, a coup is unlikely in present day Turkey. But I am
               also having a hard time believing that the TSK will simply
               accept what has happened and move on. 

               On 8/1/11 11:28 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

                 They are meeting again on Tuesday

                 Turkish high military council meets amid tensions

                 Aug 1, 2011, 15:04 GMT
                 http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/europe/news/article_1654323.php/Turkish-high-military-council-meets-amid-tensions
                 Ankara - The first day of Turkey's High Military Council
                 meeting ended quietly Monday, with the government and
                 generals trying to convey their relations were back on track
                 after the shock resignation of the country's top four
                 commanders.

                 Signs of tension between Turkey's secular military and
                 Islamic- oriented government were manifest at the meeting
                 chaired by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the
                 General Staff's headquarters.

                 One of the seven generals who attended, Nusret Tasdeler, the
                 commander of the Aegean Army, is facing a warrant for arrest
                 on charges of waging an Internet campaign against the
                 Justice and Development Party government.

                 Journalists allowed into the chamber to take pictures at the
                 start of the four-day meeting noted that five of the 14
                 seats were empty - evidence of the disorder created by
                 Friday's resignation of the chief of general staff and the
                 heads of the army, navy and air force.

                 Orderlies had removed the superfluous chairs, but they did
                 not remove the microphones embedded into the oval table.

                 The council has the job of choosing commanders and senior
                 officers to replace those scheduled to retire at the end of
                 the month.

                 Disagreement over the selection provoked the resignations,
                 with the chief of general staff, General Isik Kosaner,
                 saying he had stepped down because he could not shield his
                 fellow officers from prosecution and being denied promotion
                 over coup plot allegations.

                 Erdogan moved quickly, replacing Kosaner with General Necdet
                 Ozel, the head of the paramilitary gendarmerie. Ozel was
                 appointed head of the army and acting chief of general staff
                 on Friday night.

                 Regarded as a general with whom the government can get
                 along, Ozel is certain to be appointed chief of general
                 staff when the council concludes its business Thursday,
                 political observers in Ankara agree.

                 Ozel led the military delegation to the council meeting,
                 which was attended by the defence minister, and held a
                 private meeting with Prime Minister Erdogan on Monday
                 afternoon.

                 When the council's first session ended at noontime, the
                 prime minister led the generals on a traditional visit to
                 the mausoleum of Kemal Ataturk, founder of the modern
                 Turkish republic, where he laid a wreath.

                 Turkish prime ministers visit the mausoleum regularly to
                 reaffirm their allegiance to the secular values of the
                 founder of the republic.

                 The council will reconvene on Tuesday. 

                 On 8/1/11 10:15 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

                   What is the latest with the move to appoint replacements
                   to the 4 top generals that threw in the towel? 

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com

      

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

       -- 
       Jacob Shapiro 
       STRATFOR 
       Director, Operations Center 
       cell: 404.234.9739 
       office: 512.279.9489 
       e-mail: jacob.shapiro@stratfor.com
       Brian Genchur
       Director, Multimedia | STRATFOR
       brian.genchur@stratfor.com
       (512) 279-9463
       www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-08-01 23:42:14</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5135517_dispatch-discussion-aug-2-turkey-civilian-supremacy-over.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5138296</id>
    <title>Re: hello
</title>
    <description>   Dear Elijah:

   Excellent. I'll look forward to getting in touch from Kenya. How are
   things in Mombasa? How would you compare smuggling there compared to Lamu?
   I'm guessing it's a different type of smuggling arena -- perhaps Lamu was
   more involved in Somalia smuggling concerns, while Mombasa is more
   Kenya-oriented? Any thoughts there are greatly appreciated.

   Sincerely,

   --Mark

   On 9/27/10 1:43 AM, elijah akunga wrote:

     Im fine, since last year april i was transfered to mombasa. Im now in    
     kilindini port. Last year January i attended training there, Viginia     
     FrontRoyal, CPB-canine training. Now im K9 officer looking for drugs. So 
     when you come please just look for me we tolk more, my cell phone no is  
     0722393138. Good day                                                     
                                                                              
     --- On Fri, 24/9/10, Mark Schroeder &lt;mark.schroeder@stratfor.com&gt; wrote: 
                                                                              
       From: Mark Schroeder &lt;mark.schroeder@stratfor.com&gt;                     
       Subject: hello from STRATFOR                                           
       To: eliahakunga12@yahoo.co.uk                                          
       Date: Friday, 24 September, 2010, 21:01                                
                                                                              
       Dear Elijah:                                                           
                                                                              
       How are you? It has been sometime since we were last in touch. How     
       have                                                                   
       you been keeping in Lamu? We are well here in Texas. I will be         
       traveling                                                              
       next month to Kenya -- if there is a chance to meet, I'd appreciate    
       it.                                                                    
                                                                              
       Sincerely,                                                             
                                                                              
       --Mark                                                                 
                                                                              
       --                                                                     
       Mark Schroeder                                                         
       Director of Sub Saharan Africa Analysis                                
       STRATFOR, a global intelligence company                                
       Tel +1.512.744.4079                                                    
       Fax +1.512.744.4334                                                    
       Email: mark.schroeder@stratfor.com                                     
       Web: www.stratfor.com                                                  
</description>
    <date>2010-09-28 23:16:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-06 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5138296_re-hello-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mark.schroeder@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eliahakunga12@yahoo.co.uk</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5141941</id>
    <title>Re: keeping in touch from STRATFOR
</title>
    <description>   Dear Don:

   It is good hearing from you. I've sent you a copy of our World Cup post
   tournament assessment, so any comments you have are appreciated. I'm glad
   the tournament went pretty well.

   We're on the lookout too for post-tournament protests, but I'm not so sure
   if it'll happen. I'm thinking they'll be taking a breather for a bit now.
   There was definitely a push to agitate prior to the tournament, to use it
   for leverage to get those 10% raises. Now there isn't that kind of
   leverage available. But I'm sure it won't be too long before another round
   of protests start up.

   As for other fires, we're looking into Al Shabaab as a transnational
   threat, as well as what neighboring countries, notably Ethiopia, Kenya and
   Uganda, may mobilize to counter AS. Each neighbor has their own issues and
   constraints, and a response may not be uniform, but we're looking at what
   they may do. Do you see these Somali neighbors becoming more direct and
   proactive, to use the Kenyan foreign minister's words?

   A couple other high profile issues we're monitoring: Angola, its regional
   assertiveness, its relations with South Africa, its desire to expand its
   economy and economic influence but at the same time keeping it under very
   tight central political control

   Lastly is Nigeria, militancy in the Niger Delta (though right now it's
   pretty quiet) as well as horse-trading ahead of national elections.
   Whether President Jonathan will run again, and what northerners may do
   about that. Does Jonathan have enough influence in the Niger Delta to keep
   his political opponents from stirring things up there against him? If
   Jonathan proceeds, do northerners go along with it, or do they fight back
   somehow.

   I'm not sure if those issues are within your area, but if so I'd love any
   comments you'd have on them.

   Thanks for keeping in touch.

   My best,

   --Mark

   On 7/15/10 11:15 AM, Dumler, Donald B. PB3 wrote:

     Hello Mark,

      

     Yes, big sigh of relief that the cup ended without any major incidents,
     outside of the Kampala bombings during the final match.

      

     Not sure if you are aware, but my area of responsibility covers half of
     the continent of Africa (nearly all of Sub-Saharan Africa, short of the
     Western region).  So never lacking for items of concern. 

      

     We actually had a person that went to South Africa for the World Cup,
     and she returned just today.  I asked her what her thoughts are on the
     potential for South Africa.  She seemed pretty upbeat on the current
     situation in South Africa.

      

     My thoughts are that the next 3 to 4 months are crucial from an
     international perspective on what takes place in the country post-World
     Cup.  Will we see a return to xenophobic attacks?  Will we now see the
     violent service delivery protests that were effectively squelched
     through the duration of the tournament?  And something I found
     interesting, was a piece on the economics of the country and the 0.4 to
     0.5% bump to their GDP that they received from the event.  I wish I had
     the source of that information for you now, but unfortunately I don't,
     but the gist of the report was that the public workers (if I recall
     correctly) were demanding a pay increase in the 10-11% range, that if
     granted, would effectively wipe out any gains to the economy that they
     received from the World Cup. 

      

     I would love to read your post-tournament wrap-up analysis piece.  After
     I read through it, would be happy to share my thoughts on it as well.

      

     Thanks for your email Mark.  I'll also return the question to you.  What
     is your next fire on the continent that you are turning your attention
     to?  Perhaps I could share some thoughts with you on those issues.

      

     Respectfully,

     Don Dumler

      

     From: Mark Schroeder [mailto:mark.schroeder@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Wednesday, July 14, 2010 9:54 PM
     To: Dumler, Donald B. PB3
     Subject: keeping in touch from STRATFOR

      

     How are you? I hope you're getting a nice breather now that the World
     Cup is over. The games seem to have gone well with no big disruption. No
     major security incidents to note. The SA government seems pretty hushed
     up about a possible radioactive device sale in Pretoria last Friday, but
     not much was reported on it, and in any case, nothing transpired to
     impact the World Cup.

     I was just wondering your post-tournament thoughts. We published a wrap
     up analysis and I'd be pleased to send it to you if you are interested.

     Now that you're done with the WC, what's next on your plate?

     My best,

     --Mark
</description>
    <date>2010-07-15 22:18:12</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-06 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5141941_re-keeping-in-touch-from-stratfor-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mark.schroeder@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Donald.Dumler@jac.eucom.mil</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5142017</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged "Anonymous" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise "anonymous"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-10 19:47:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5142017_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5150875</id>
    <title>Re: keeping in touch
</title>
    <description>Dear Per:

Thanks again for your note. I'm just getting back in my desk this week 
after being out for a couple of weeks. I was able to go camping with my 
family in Canada, to get a break from the heat here in Texas.

I hope you're keeping well in Norway. I'm sorry to hear of the 
developments with Leif; it's unfortunate when things develop that way. I 
hope you find some resolution there. I haven't been back to Angola since 
I met you there, and I do hope to be able to visit there again. Though 
sometimes I wonder how a return visit might go; it seems that the expat 
crowd there is pretty small and some might or might not want to see me 
again, assuming they're still there.

Anyway, thanks again for keeping in touch.

My best,

--Mark




On 7/9/11 1:36 AM, Per Holter wrote:
&gt; Hello, Mark and thank you for mail.
&gt; Always good to hear from you.
&gt;
&gt; I am at home in Norway and save two trips to Luanda and Sao Tomé in January
&gt; and May, have been here since contract termination in Dec.
&gt; Time have been spent on putting together a 'data base' on Angola O&amp;G
&gt; industry.
&gt; Hopefully this will form basis for a contract with one or two companies to
&gt; represent their interest in Angola in some form.
&gt;
&gt; Next is a similar albeit much smaller product on Sao Tomé, but in this case
&gt; as potential basis for a direct involvement.
&gt; I've been talking with a guy in STP to set up a small company to service oil
&gt; &amp;  gas business in the area.
&gt;
&gt; It's too early to pull in the oars and hopefully something may transpire
&gt; from these activities.
&gt;
&gt; And how about yourself?
&gt; Are you working from stateside now and do you get to make any trips to
&gt; Luanda?
&gt;
&gt; I believe I may have told you I have ended up in a legal conflict with Leif
&gt; Biureborgh.
&gt; This is unfortunate, not the least because I lost a friendly and interesting
&gt; correspondent.
&gt; I am taking him to court for failure to fulfill partnership obligations.
&gt; Not a very productive business, but you sometimes need to draw a line.
&gt;
&gt; Take care.
&gt;
&gt; Per
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt; From: Mark Schroeder [mailto:mark.schroeder@stratfor.com]
&gt; Sent: 8. juli 2011 18:31
&gt; To: Per Holter
&gt; Subject: keeping in touch
&gt;
&gt; Dear Per:
&gt;
&gt; How are you? I just wanted to drop you a line to see how you are doing?
&gt; I'm not even sure where you are at the moment, I apologize for that.
&gt;
&gt; My best,
&gt;
&gt; --Mark
&gt;
</description>
    <date>2011-07-21 21:23:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-06 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5150875_re-keeping-in-touch-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mark.schroeder@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>phanders@online.no</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5151509</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] Trapwire says Libyans
</title>
    <description>   the shooter was a light skinned blond Norwegian national about 190cm in
   height.

   On Friday, 7/22/11 3:11 PM, Scott Stewart wrote:

     Was the shooter a Libyan?

     On 7/22/11 9:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
</description>
    <date>2011-07-22 22:25:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5151509_re-alpha-trapwire-says-libyans-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>hoor.jangda@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5153399</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111
</title>
    <description>   this dude really gives the impression that Moscow calls the shots in Kiev

   so basically, Med gets pissed b/c Timo is blowing Putin and not him, so he
   whines to Putin and says drop the B and get behind Yanu like me. Putin
   says fine, Yanu gets excited and oversteps his boundaries, and now Putin
   is like fix this shit Med and Med is like okay, but we dont know what Med
   is actually gonna do to slap Yanu around

   so what's the couterargument to this? Does Russia really have this much
   influence over the situation?  this is something we need to address in
   ukraine reassessment

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Marc Lanthemann" &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

   CODE: UA111
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Kiev
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch.
   But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps
   this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to
   begin with.

    

   You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in
   power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew
   Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to
   solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be
   Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most
   easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got
   her in trouble and arrested.

    

   But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no
   respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev
   made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a
   deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if
   Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being
   the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU,
   military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension
   it had been pushing for.

    

   So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009,
   the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing
   to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of
   demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally.

    

   Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev
   to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing
   against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever
   will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-09-14 20:55:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5153399_re-alpha-insight-ukraine-moscow-kiev-spat-ua111-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5154731</id>
    <title>Re: TURnKEY - What happened today or is happening in the YSK meeting?
</title>
    <description>   The nature of the republic changed with the sledgehammer arrests. This
   just makes it official

   With the massive majority of the akp, it is inconceivable that turkey
   wouldn't change and its a fantasy to imagine that it will ever go back.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Kamran Bokhari &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Mon, 1 Aug 2011 11:00:43 -0500 (CDT)
   To: &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: TURKEY - What happened today or is happening in the YSK
   meeting?
   If this is true, then what we have is a massive change in the nature of
   the Turkish republic.
   On 8/1/11 11:57 AM, George Friedman wrote:

     I think that sledgehammer was real and the revelations at the trial put
     the generals in an impossible position. The option of resistance isn't
     there in a country where the akp holds a large majority and where the
     danger of discrediting the military is real. Erdogan used this reality
     to move turkey back to the status of a normal state in which the
     military is subordinate to the government. The military can't organize a
     coup and the consequences of a coup would devastate turkey, and leave a
     majority of the population hostile. This is not 1980 where the us and
     nato supported the coup. It would mean isolation.

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Kamran Bokhari &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Mon, 1 Aug 2011 10:44:20 -0500 (CDT)
     To: Michael Wilson&lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Cc: Analyst List&lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: TURKEY - What happened today or is happening in the YSK
     meeting?
     I have been wondering about the intentions of the 3-stars who are next
     in line. Do they simply accept that their institution is not in a
     position to do much at this time and move on? Some of them would like to
     get promoted and assume the top jobs. Or will there be some sort of
     backlash from these guys? Surely, what has happened has created debate
     within the corps commander ranks as to what should be the stance of the
     institution. There is also the concern that any stance must be unified
     such that the integrity of the institution is preserved. There is also
     of course the need to make sure that the AKP doesn't use any
     disagreements within the TSK hierarchy to its advantage and further
     enhance its upper hand.

     The appointment of Ozel as landforces commander and acting TSK chief
     reminds me of what happened in Pakistan during the second term of former
     Pakistani prime minister Nawaz Sharif in 1998-99. Sharif forced army
     chief Gen Jahangir Karamat to resign and we there was the highly rare
     instance of an army chief folding under pressure from a civilian govt.
     Sharif replaced Karamat with Musharraf and GHQ as an institution
     accepted the change. But then when after the Kargil war in 99 Sharif
     fired Musharraf and replaced him with the then ISI chief Gen. Ziauddin
     Butt, the institution struck back and we had the coup that brought
     Musharraf to power.

     Obviously, a coup is unlikely in present day Turkey. But I am also
     having a hard time believing that the TSK will simply accept what has
     happened and move on.

     On 8/1/11 11:28 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

       They are meeting again on Tuesday

       Turkish high military council meets amid tensions

       Aug 1, 2011, 15:04 GMT
       http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/europe/news/article_1654323.php/Turkish-high-military-council-meets-amid-tensions
       Ankara - The first day of Turkey's High Military Council meeting ended
       quietly Monday, with the government and generals trying to convey
       their relations were back on track after the shock resignation of the
       country's top four commanders.

       Signs of tension between Turkey's secular military and Islamic-
       oriented government were manifest at the meeting chaired by Prime
       Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the General Staff's headquarters.

       One of the seven generals who attended, Nusret Tasdeler, the commander
       of the Aegean Army, is facing a warrant for arrest on charges of
       waging an Internet campaign against the Justice and Development Party
       government.

       Journalists allowed into the chamber to take pictures at the start of
       the four-day meeting noted that five of the 14 seats were empty -
       evidence of the disorder created by Friday's resignation of the chief
       of general staff and the heads of the army, navy and air force.

       Orderlies had removed the superfluous chairs, but they did not remove
       the microphones embedded into the oval table.

       The council has the job of choosing commanders and senior officers to
       replace those scheduled to retire at the end of the month.

       Disagreement over the selection provoked the resignations, with the
       chief of general staff, General Isik Kosaner, saying he had stepped
       down because he could not shield his fellow officers from prosecution
       and being denied promotion over coup plot allegations.

       Erdogan moved quickly, replacing Kosaner with General Necdet Ozel, the
       head of the paramilitary gendarmerie. Ozel was appointed head of the
       army and acting chief of general staff on Friday night.

       Regarded as a general with whom the government can get along, Ozel is
       certain to be appointed chief of general staff when the council
       concludes its business Thursday, political observers in Ankara agree.

       Ozel led the military delegation to the council meeting, which was
       attended by the defence minister, and held a private meeting with
       Prime Minister Erdogan on Monday afternoon.

       When the council's first session ended at noontime, the prime minister
       led the generals on a traditional visit to the mausoleum of Kemal
       Ataturk, founder of the modern Turkish republic, where he laid a
       wreath.

       Turkish prime ministers visit the mausoleum regularly to reaffirm
       their allegiance to the secular values of the founder of the republic.

       The council will reconvene on Tuesday.

       On 8/1/11 10:15 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

         What is the latest with the move to appoint replacements to the 4
         top generals that threw in the towel?

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-08-01 18:05:46</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5154731_re-turnkey-what-happened-today-or-is-happening-in-the-ysk.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5164781</id>
    <title>Re: keeping in touch from STRATFOR
</title>
    <description>Dear Mark,
How are you?
And how was your work on AQIM? As I had said before, I’m very interested
in reading it.

With regard to Angola, I would suggest you contact my colleague Vasco
Martins (vmartins@ipris.org) not only because he is our expert on the
subject, but also because I’m doing somewhat of an intermission on my
activity as a researcher since I was recently appointed a political
adviser to the Minister Assistant and of Parliamentary Affairs in the
recently elected Portuguese government.

As you must know, Portugal requested foreign financial assistance and is
in a very difficult situation thus, at least during the first months, I
will have to dedicate myself exclusively to my governmental
responsabilities.

Nevertheless, in case I can be of any assistance, do not hesitate to
contact me.

All my best,

Diogo N.



&gt; Dear Diogo:
&gt;
&gt; Greetings again. We were in touch in March when I was researching AQIM's
&gt; positions in West Africa, notably whether there is any presence in
&gt; Guinea Bissau. Thank you.
&gt;
&gt; This time I'd like to ask your thoughts on an Angolan subject. There is
&gt; talk about social protest movements there, and I've heard concerns that
&gt; social protest groups are unsubstantiated and possibly originated over
&gt; the Internet from Portugal. I'm not sure I believe that skepticism.  But
&gt; I did want to ask your take on the degree of social protest movements in
&gt; Angola. The MRIS group is one that has been commented on in some corners.
&gt;
&gt; Thank you for your thoughts, as always.
&gt;
&gt; My best,
&gt;
&gt; --Mark
&gt;
&gt; --
&gt; Mark Schroeder
&gt; Director of Sub Saharan Africa Analysis
&gt; STRATFOR, a global intelligence company
&gt; Tel +1.512.744.4079
&gt; Fax +1.512.744.4334
&gt; Email: mark.schroeder@stratfor.com
&gt; Web:   www.stratfor.com
&gt;
&gt;


-- 
Investigador/Researcher

Instituto Português de
Relações Internacionais e Segurança (IPRIS)

Portuguese Institute of
International Relations and Security (IPRIS)

www.ipris.org
</description>
    <date>2011-08-24 17:19:36</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-20 02:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5164781_re-keeping-in-touch-from-stratfor-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mark.schroeder@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>dnoivo@ipris.org</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5175172</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT - CHINA - News about Ore Prices and SSY Futures Ltd
 Iron Ore Report - via CN65
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE: via CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes, but without attribution (please speak with me first)
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: A
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Speak with me before any publication
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

     Iron Ore Prices:

          Physical iron ore prices remained little changed on
     Wednesday.

          There is still very little trading activity as China
     remains to the sidelines whilst dealing with delays in
     discharging of existing purchased ore due to bad weather.
     Especially high winds at some discharge ports (EG Rhizao and
     Liangyungang) continues to prevent berthing and shifting.
     Bad weather delays are also reducing takeaway capacity
     which is significantly reducing China's daily import capacity
     and has caused heavy congestion in Her ports. China is focusing
     to clear Her congestion before purchasing fresh spot ore which
     would attract additonal heavy congestion charges and add to
     delivered costs.

         In the meantime the affect of Chinese congestion is to
     continue to delay arrivals for ongoing shipments forcing miners
     to fix spot spot replacement vessels which just yesterday (since
     Rhizao/Lianyungang closures due to high winds the day before)
     has forced Woz/Qingdao spot rates back up from USD 11.50 to
     USD 13.30 reported fixed late last night for a 16-20 dec
     arrival West Aussie.

          Rio Tinto sold a 165kt cargo of Australian 57% Fe Robe
     River fines at $125.68/dmt CFR Qingdao through a tender.

          Indian miner Fomento sold two Panamax cargoes of 57/56%
     Fe material at $98/dmt FOPB Goa.

          Bagadiya Bros dropped their offer for Indian 63.5/63 Fe
     fines, to $144/$148 from $148/$151 overnight.  

          The TSI was marked down just 20 cents with Platts
     unchanged.

     TSI 62% (3.5% Al):   $139.40 (-$0.20)       
     PLATTS 62%:          $141.50 (unch)       
     MBIOI 62%:           $139.91 (+$0.21)
     TSI 62% (2.0% Al):   $140.90 (-$0.20)

     Market comments:

         Offers for iron ore cargoes have dropped with Indian 63.5/63
     grade material down to $148 a tonne from $151 earlier this week,
     reports Reuters.

         Top iron ore miner Vale sold two cargoes this week at prices
     lower than index-based reference prices. One cargo with 246,000
     tonnes of 64.4-grade iron ore fines was sold at $144.15 a tonne,
     C&amp;F, and another shipment with 236,000 tonnes of 63.2-grade fines
     was sold at $141.5 a tonne, both via tenders, Reuters added.

         Global miners, including Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton ,
     are all running their production at full capacity, convinced Chinese
     demand will remain strong as the country continues to invest
     heavily in urbanisation and infrastructure, reports Reuters.

         China's average daily crude steel output in late November
     rose for the first time since late September, although doubts
     remain about underlying steel demand as the government's
     clampdown on the property sector stayed in place, Reuters added.

         Vale SA, the world.s largest iron-ore producer, said it.s
     in talks with customers including ArcelorMittal and China Steel
     Corp. to cut contract prices after clients pressured the company
     to revise its pricing system, reports Bloomberg. Almost
     80 percent of the company.s iron-ore sales are based on the
     current quarter.s price, compared with a previous system that
     used the period ending a month before the onset of a new
     quarter, Jose Carlos Martins, head of iron-ore and strategy
     for Vale, said. .With the recent drop in prices we got a lot
     of pressure from customers to change. the pricing system,
     Martins told reporters during a press conference after Vale
     hosted a meeting with investors. .We are more flexible to
     accept the price reality from the market..

         Fortescue Metals Group, Australia's third-biggest exporter
     of iron ore, sees strong prices for the steelmaking ingredient
     in 2012 with potential for quick declines similar to those
     seen this year, reports The Sydney Morning Herald.

         Prices .will be reasonably strong, but don't be surprised
     if there's a couple of sudden dips,. Chairman Andrew Forrest
     said in an interview in London today. .I call reasonable
     anything above $US100. That's a good sustainable iron ore price..

         In November this year, iron ore shipments from Australia's
     Port Hedland increased by 25.9% YoY and were slightly down
     by 0.4% MoM, totaling 19.8 million tonnes, reports Steel Guru.

         According to Port Hedland Port Authority, iron ore shipments
     made from Port Hedland to China amounted to 14.73 million
     tonnes in November, decreasing by 0.1% compared to October
     of the current year and up 24.3% YoY. Japan was the second
     largest export destination for iron ore shipments from Port
     Hedland, with shipments totaling 2.4 million metric tonnes
     up by 23.9% YoY and up 10.4% from October.

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +216 22 73 23 19
 www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-12-09 12:39:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5175172_-alpha-insight-china-news-about-ore-prices-and-ssy-futures.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ben.preisler@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/8/8666_20111208_IronOreReport.pdf</path><size>153820</size><md5></md5><sha1>77ebbf65711eefe10839fe3a419d55425bb7ba51</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5192411</id>
    <title>Re: Wikileaks -- South Africa, May 16, 2008
</title>
    <description>   Did you find the one related to our meeting?

   Nate Taylor
   512 970 7576
   On Jan 26, 2011, at 10:05 AM, Mark Schroeder &lt;mark.schroeder@stratfor.com&gt;
   wrote:

     Confidential cable from the US Embassy Pretoria to the Secretary of
     State, Washington DC (and others), May 16 2008:

     SUBJECT: ZUMA CAMP MAY BE LOOKING TO OUST MBEKI

     Classified By: Political Counselor Raymond L. Brown. Reasons 1.4(b) and
     (d).

     1. On 14 May, PolOff met with Zuma advisor Mo Shaik who told her that
     Zuma is likely to assume the national Presidency before March or April
     next year, when parliamentary elections would normally be held. When
     asked if the Zuma camp had enough votes in Parliament (three-quarters)
     needed to call a vote of no-confidence, Shaik replied, "that would not
     be an issue."

     However, he also asked PolOff if she had ever considered a scenario
     where Mbeki's entire Cabinet deserted him, forcing him to resign.

     PolOff asked why Mbeki couldn't just appoint a new Cabinet, but Shaik
     answered with another question, asking "who would join Mbeki's cabinet
     now? It would be suicide." He also added that momentum is building in
     the ANC for Mbeki's removal and that the business community was
     "begging" them to do it.

     2. PolOff also met on 15 May with a French diplomat, who confirmed that
     he was hearing the same thing from the Zuma camp and some other
     diplomats (especially the Germans), but said he did not believe Mbeki
     would back down so easily. He added that there is no evidence that Mbeki
     is willing to cave to the Zuma camp, pointing out that Mbeki is still
     putting off ANC Secretary General Kgalema Motlanthe's inclusion into his
     cabinet. (NOTE: When PolOff asked Shaik what position Motlanthe will
     assume, he snidely said, "Why don't you ask your friend Mbeki?" END
     NOTE)

     3. BIO NOTE. Meeting Shaik is always work, but this meeting was
     particularly pointed and painful, with Shaik coming across as vengeful,
     insecure, and antagonistic. Over time, PolOff has managed to build some
     rapport with him. For example, during PolOff's last meeting, Shaik
     admitted he was looking forward to the birth of his first child (whom he
     jokingly referred to as "the little dictator"), and even sent PolOff an
     SMS when his wife went into labor. However, during this meeting (which
     he called), he refused to be drawn into any personal conversation.

     Instead, Shaik spent much of the hour and a half berating the United
     States in general (for "never recognizing a bus when it hits us"), but
     also the FBI and State Department in particular. He made a point of
     telling PolOff that "he knows all about the FBI's role in selling South
     Africa the idea of a law-enforcement agency with no oversight" i.e., the
     Scorpions), going so far as to name former NLEA officers. He implied the
     FBI purposefully sold South Africa an idea that the U.S. would never
     allow on its own soil. He also repeatedly criticized the recent trip by
     Assistant Secretary Frazer for coming to the continent to talk to
     leaders about Zimbabwe, calling U.S. officials "stupid and arrogant."

     4. COMMENT. Shaik is right in pointing out that there are many in the
     Zuma camp who wish to take full revenge on Mbeki and end his tenure
     early. Shaik, more than anyone, likely personalizes the issue given the
     fact he blames the Scorpions for sending his brother to prison (not
     because he was guilty). However, it is unclear if the Zuma camp has
     reached a tipping point, especially within Mbeki's cabinet, which has
     remained virtually unchanged for his entire tenure.

     The Zuma camp has definitely gained a number of converts since Polokwane
     simply because people want to stay on during the next administration,
     but whether it is enough to oust Mbeki is unclear.

     5. COMMENT CONT'D. However, there are also advantages to allowing Mbeki
     to stay in power for his full term, a fact even Shaik has admitted in
     previous meetings. Mbeki has had better days politically, but the Zuma
     camp, for all its talk, is unlikely to come in and fix all of South
     Africa's problems overnight. Combating crime, solving South Africa's
     electricity shortages, increasing employment, improving service
     delivery, and convincing Zimbabwean President Mugabe to step down are
     not easy fixes. The fact is the longer Mbeki stays in power, the better
     Zuma will look -- at least in the short-term -- when elections come
     around next year.

     BOST
</description>
    <date>2011-01-27 18:13:27</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5192411_re-wikileaks-south-africa-may-16-2008-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mark.schroeder@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>nhtaylor1998@yahoo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5205581</id>
    <title>[MESA] SYRIA/KSA/LEBANON - Quotes on the Syria-Arab League Peace
	Plan
</title>
    <description>    This includes highlights of the statements from Syrian media and two     
    different Saudi papers.  Just so we can keep track of the overt Saudi    
    sentiment regarding the Arab League plan and Syria.                      
    BBC Monitoring quotes from Middle East Arabic press for 8 Nov 11         
                                                                             
    The following is a selection of quotes from editorials and comment       
    published in the 8 November 2011 editions of Arabic language newspapers  
    in the Middle East and North Africa, as available to the BBC at 0800     
    gmt. Any material from the previous day is indicated as such. Quotes     
    from Palestinian newspapers and those published in the UK are being      
    filed separately.                                                        
                                                                             
                          Syria-Arab League peace plan                       
                                                                             
    Syria's Al-Thawrah: [govt-owned]: "Straightforward and without any       
    embarrassment and in the midst of steps taken by Syria to stop violence, 
    Washington publicly and arrogantly calls on Syrian armed men to not      
    'surrender their arms' in an attempt to foil efforts made to end the     
    fabricated crisis in Syria. What does this mean? It simply means it is   
    new evidence to direct US involvement in violence and sedition in Syria  
    and its encouragement of armed groups to go ahead with their criminal    
    acts against the Syrian people." (Commentary by Yunis Khalaf-            
    "Exceptional US sponsorship")                                            
                                                                             
    Saudi Al-Watan: [privately-owned, pro-govt]: "Time is gradually running  
    out for the Syrian regime and the gap is widening between the political  
    reforms that the Arab League has demanded to stop violence in Syria and  
    measures expected to be adopted by the emergency ministerial meeting of  
    Arab foreign ministers on 12 November... We warn the Syrian regime not   
    against protesters' call for international intervention but for regime's 
    pursuit to get Syria involved in a fierce Iran, particularly in light of 
    the standoff between Iran and the West over the former's nuclear         
    programme... The Arab League peace plan in Syria and Damascus' approval  
    of it are the last lifeboat for the Syrian regime. The Syrian regime     
    should resort to real national dialogue and recognize the opposition as  
    an influential part of the society." (Editorial- "Syria, racing against  
    time")                                                                   
                                                                             
    Saudi Al-Riyadh: [privately-owned, pro-govt]: "The Arab League will hold 
    a meeting on Syria on 12 November. However, does it have the mechanism   
    to put pressure to bear on Damascus? Let's suppose that an Arab League   
    resolution would be made suspending Syria's membership in the Arab       
    organization. I think the maximum the Arab League can do in this regard  
    is to move the issue of protecting the Syrian people to the UN Security  
    Council to take resolutions under an Arab umbrella... Evidence to        
    failure of the Arab League project is that it is objected to by the      
    Syrian opposition inside and outside the country. The Syrian opposition  
    claims that the Arab League gave the Syrian regime a chance to bluff     
    international public opinion... Let's see the Arab stance represented by 
    the Arab League. However, let's also think about the league's role in    
    Tunisian, Egyptian, Libyan, Yemeni and Syrian uprisings." (Editorial-    
    "Damascus, hiding true political motives")                               
                                                                             
    Lebanon's Al-Safir: [independent, leftist]: "The Syrian opposition       
    rushed yesterday into announcing that the Arab League peace plan on      
    Syria has failed. Moreover, it called yesterday for moving beyond Arab   
    solutions to the crisis; internationalization... Arabs and the           
    international community are monitoring the situation in Syria from a     
    distance and they don't have the desire or ability to intervene there.   
    The Syrian regime understands this fact very well... For many reasons,   
    the Syrian regime looks more self-confident because it believes that the 
    battle is in its final conclusive stages." (Commentary by Sati           
    Nur-al-Din- "Light at beginning of tunnel")                              
                                                                             
                                  Iran-Nuclear                               
                                                                             
    Qata r's Al-Watan: [privately-owned, pro-govt]: "It seems that the       
    Iranian nuclear crisis is on its way for escalation anew thanks to an    
    extensive Israeli propaganda campaign ahead of an IAEA report that is    
    expected to criticize Iran with harshest possible terms. As per leaked   
    information circulated in Israeli media, Western experts, who have       
    looked into the intelligence bits of the IAEA report, believe that Iran  
    has got the know-how and technology required to build a nuclear bomb     
    within months... It also seems that the IAEA under its new director      
    general Yukiya Amano would be stricter in dealing with Iran compared to  
    its former director general Muhammad al-Barad'i." (Commentary by Mazin   
    Hammad- "IAEA, Iranian bomb")                                            
                                                                             
    UAE's Al-Khalij: [indep,leftist]: "It seems that the most prominent      
    feature in the 'war of nerves' that is currently shaping in the media    
    about the possibility of dealing a unilateral Israeli military blow to   
    Iran in cooperation with the USA or Britain or other allies is that      
    Washington is officially avoiding any talk about this strike. US         
    President Obama just talked about need to put pressure on Tehran... The  
    least Obama needs ahead of next year's presidential polls is to take a   
    decision regarding war on Iran given the chronic economic crisis that    
    his country is facing, which makes it impossible for the USA to cover    
    the expenses of a fourth war." (Commentary by Ma'mun al-Husayni- "Israel 
    wars, exporting crises")                                                 
                                                                             
    Source: Quotes package from BBC Monitoring, in English 08 Nov 11         
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MECai wm                                                     

              A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011
</description>
    <date>2011-11-08 22:21:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5205581_-mesa-syria-ksa-lebanon-quotes-on-the-syria-arab-league.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mesa@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ashley.harrison@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:mesa@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5206181</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
 CODE
</title>
    <description>   It might sound strange, but some of the most radical deep ecology people
   actually believe that there are too many people on the earth and that
   radical steps must be taken to reduce the population and save the earth.
    This strain of deep ecology is a clear reflection of the way the movement
   was heavily influenced by people like Martin Heidegger who were also
   committed to Nazism. Yes, Nazis were radical environmentalists.....
   From: Marc Lanthemann &lt;marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com&gt;
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 23:08:31 -0600
   To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Jesus I spent a couple of hours researching these guys - weird is an
   understatement. Apparently they met yesterday a couple of blocks away from
   my house to consolidate their leadership, go through basic indoctrination
   and plan more events. As far as I can tell, the Austin chapter is not
   nearly as radical as the central Lierre Keith DGR whose website is a
   treasure trove of incitment to passive resistance, blowing up energy
   infra, basic counter intel and legal guidance.

   Their ideology seems to be a mix of hardcore environmentalism, anarchism,
   radical feminism and the general notion that we need to go back living
   sustainably like the american indians by blowing up every pipeline and
   cell tower on the planet. Unlike the central DGR, Austin DGR doesn't seem
   to have defined targets and goals (their meeting yesterday was a
   brainstorming session on what radical environmentalism means in Austin).

   just a few nice quotes from their central website:

   The task of an activist is not to navigate systems of oppressive power
   with as much personal integrity as possible; it is to dismantle those
   systems.

   What would we do if Nazis had invaded, and they were vacuuming the oceans,
   scalping native forests, damming every river, changing the climate, and
   putting carcinogens into every mother's breast milk, and into the flesh of
   your children, your lover, your mother, into your own flesh? How much
   worse would the damage have to get? Would you resist? If there existed a
   resistance movement, would you join it?

   On 11/16/11 7:42 PM, Victoria Allen wrote:

     WHOA.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 18:38:01 -0600
     To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Cc: Anya Alfano&lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
     CODE
     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not "radical" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the "Phoenix Commune" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as "stupid, crazy motherfuckers", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, "Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-17 14:01:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5206181_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5211776</id>
    <title>Please Leave WikiLeaks featured
</title>
    <description>   It's getting tons of freelist signups

   --
   Jenna Colley
   STRATFOR
   Director, Content Publishing
   C: 512-567-1020
   F: 512-744-4334
   jenna.colley@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-08 20:18:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 23:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5211776_please-leave-wikileaks-featured-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>writers@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>jenna.colley@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5225759</id>
    <title>[alpha] Afghanistan
</title>
    <description>   CN65 sent me this video.  He is mates with Craig Coleman in the video.  I
   am sending it along in case there may be any questions for Craig.  My
   source can speak with him directly if so and Craig seems open to
   discussion.ia'; 'Risk Reduction Services Australia'; 'Ash Cooper'; 'Allan
   Mansell'; 'Bill Ochee'; 'Steve Salmon'; 'George Friend'; 'George Friend'

     Subject: SBS Dateline
      
     All,
      
     I was interviewed on SBS Dateline last night along with Jim Molan. My
     point of view was that Afghanistan is going to fail because the emphasis
     is just on military and not on the important factors that are fuelling
     the insurgency.
      
     The link is below:
      
     http://www.sbs.com.au/dateline/story/watch/id/601300/n/The-Taliban-Strikes-Back
      
     Please feel free to provide feedback and criticism to me and also as you
     wish. The gloves are off and now I am going to speak out about this
     ridiculous ongoing situation. The further it is distributed the more
     opportunity I will get to speak my mind publicly and raise awareness of
     the real situation and the impending failure.
      
</description>
    <date>2011-08-10 12:49:52</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5225759_-alpha-afghanistan-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5231105</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] Fwd: [OS] CHINA/CSM/CT- Cisco Poised to Help China Keep an
	Eye on Its	Citizens
</title>
    <description>   I'm sitting here with a cisco guy.  What is the trapwire tech?  He's not
   involved with this project but let me know if there are any ques and I'll
   see what he can find out.

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Jul 4, 2011, at 8:55 PM, Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

     Maybe with talk of Trapwire technology and such we can provide some
     insight on this.  The addition of the cameras is not new, I think i had
     it in the bullets sometime earlier this year. 

     -------- Original Message --------

      Subject: [OS] CHINA/CSM/CT- Cisco Poised to Help China Keep an Eye on   
               Its Citizens                                                   
         Date: Mon, 04 Jul 2011 22:52:54 -0500                                
         From: Sean Noonan &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;                         
     Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                  
           To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                  

         * JULY 5, 2011

     Censorship Inc.
     Cisco Poised to Help China Keep an Eye on Its Citizens
     Read more:
     http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304778304576377141077267316.html#ixzz1RCQsajlK
     By LORETTA CHAO in Beijing and DON CLARK in San Francisco
     [CISCO] Getty Images

     Cameras in Beijing's Tiananmen Square. U.S. firms can sell surveillance
     gear in China, but not equipment that is used only for crime control.

     Western companies including Cisco Systems Inc. are poised to help build
     an ambitious new surveillance project in Chinaa**a citywide network of
     as many as 500,000 cameras that officials say will prevent crime but
     that human-rights advocates warn could target political dissent.
     [CISCO_p1]

     The system, being built in the city of Chongqing over the next two to
     three years, is among the largest and most sophisticated
     video-surveillance projects of its kind in China, and perhaps the world.
     Dubbed "Peaceful Chongqing," it is planned to cover a half-million
     intersections, neighborhoods and parks over nearly 400 square miles, an
     area more than 25% larger than New York City.

     The project sheds light on how Western tech companies sell their wares
     in China, the Middle East and other places where there is potential for
     the gear to be used for political purposes and not just safety. The
     products range from Internet-censoring software to sophisticated
     networking gear. China in particular has drawn criticism for treating
     political dissent as a crime and has a track record of using technology
     to suppress it.

     An examination of the Peaceful Chongqing project by The Wall Street
     Journal shows Cisco is expected to supply networking equipment that is
     essential to operating large and complicated surveillance systems,
     according to people familiar with the deal.

     The U.S. has prohibited export of crime-control products to China (for
     instance, fingerprinting equipment) ever since Beijing's deadly 1989
     Tiananmen Square crackdown. But the U.S. restrictions don't prohibit
     sale of technologies such as cameras that can be used in many waysa**to
     tame, say, either traffic jams or democracy marches. This loophole
     troubles some critics. There is no indication that Cisco is selling
     products customized for crime control.
     More

         * Cisco Faces Lawsuits, Criticism Over Past China Activities

     Western companies' pursuit of sales in China underscores a fundamental
     question for businesses and policy makers alike: Should companies be
     held accountable if foreign governments use their products for political
     suppression?

     Cisco was brought in to the Chongqing project by Chinese security
     company Hikvision Digital Technology Co., the project's main contractor,
     Hikvision officials and others say. It is unclear whether Cisco's
     participation has been finalized, although one person familiar with the
     matter says it is close.

     Officials at Cisco, based in San Jose, Calif., declined to discuss its
     possible involvement in detail. A company spokesman stressed that Cisco
     "hasn't sold video cameras or video-surveillance solutions in any of our
     public infrastructure projects in China."

     The company has previously saida**including in a June blog post by
     Cisco's general counsel, Mark Chandlera**that the company strictly
     abides by the Tiananmen export controls and doesn't supply any gear to
     China that is "customized in any way" to facilitate repressive uses.

     View Full Image
     CISCO_jmp
     CISCO_jmp
     CISCO_jmp

     Cisco is the world's biggest maker of networking equipment, which
     includes routing and switching systems that send data between computers
     and connect systems to the Internet. The company has stirred controversy
     in the past for its China dealings.

     The Chongqing project is also attracting interest from other U.S.
     companies, including Alabama software maker Intergraph Corp.
     Hewlett-Packard Co. also expects to bid on part of the project,
     according to a senior H-P executive.

     The people familiar with the matter said H-P may be looking to supply
     servers or storage equipment for Peaceful Chongqing.

     Asked about concerns about political use of the system, Todd Bradley, an
     executive vice president who oversees H-P's China strategy, said in an
     interview last week in China, "We take them at their word as to the
     usage." He added, "It's not my job to really understand what they're
     going to use it for. Our job is to respond to the bid that they've
     made."
     Censorship Inc.

         * Mideast Uses Western Tools to Battle the Skype Rebellion 6/1/2011
         * Iran Vows to Unplug Internet 5/28/2011
         * U.S. Products Help Block Mideast Web 3/28/2011

     Another possible participant in the Chongqing project is Intergraph, a
     Huntsville, Ala., company that made a bid through Cisco to provide
     customized software for the effort, said Bob Scott, head of Intergraph's
     security group. It is unclear if the company, a unit of Sweden's Hexagon
     AB, will ultimately be hired.

     Although sale of surveillance technology to repressive nations is
     permissible, some critics have harsh words for companies that do so.
     "The business community is only hearing what it wants to hear and
     disregarding the rest," said Rep. Frank Wolf, a Virginia Republican who
     co-chairs the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, a nonpartisan rights
     group made up of members of Congress.

     Chongqing, a sprawling metropolis in southwestern China, is one of the
     most populous cities in the nation with an urban population of at least
     12 million. The hillside Yangtze River port, famous for spicy hot-pot
     and often covered in fog, was China's capital from 1938 to 1945. Today,
     it is being developed as a gateway to the country's western hinterland.

     Chongqing has gained prominence the past two years because of its
     Communist Party chief, Bo Xilai, a rising political star who has led a
     controversial crackdown on organized crime that some lawyers have
     criticized for what they say are violations of legal due process.

     View Full Image
     CISCO
     Getty Images

     Chongqing's party chief, Bo Xilai, led a controversial crime crackdown.
     CISCO
     CISCO

     Mr. Bo declined to comment. He is expected to become one of China's top
     leaders next year by being appointed to China's Politburo Standing
     Committee, the nation's top decision-making body.

     Chongqing's government has said it plans to invest more than $800
     million of its own in building the Peaceful Chongqing system. Another
     $1.6 billion is coming from other, unspecified sources, the city has
     said. Hikvision's president, Hu Yangzhong, said in an interview that
     government funds would go toward building the central surveillance
     network and installing a portion of the cameras, while more cameras
     would be installed by owners of residences, office buildings and
     othersa**all of which would be linked to the network.

     Video-surveillance systems can serve many purposes and are routinely
     used for benign purposes by cities world-wide to fight crime and ease
     traffic. Still, civil libertarians raise concerns including in the U.S.
     that the technology can invade privacy and is poorly regulated.

     Human-rights advocates say Chinese police have used surveillance footage
     to identify people in political protests. Jailed Chinese artist-activist
     Ai Weiwei, who was released last month, complained before he was
     apprehended on April 3 that police were using cameras to monitor him.

     Corinna-Barbara Francis, a researcher at Amnesty International, said
     surveillance footage has been used to identify and apprehend peaceful
     protesters in China, including in Xinjiang and Tibet. "In China there's
     ample evidence that they use" video surveillance "to crack down and then
     criminalize activity which should not be criminalized," Ms. Francis
     said.

     The Chongqing government declined to comment, as did China's Ministry of
     Public Security and the State Council Information Office. Chinese
     leaders have long argued that maintaining social stability and economic
     growth takes precedence over political rights.

     Hikvision's president, Mr. Hu, said he believes the project's goal is to
     cut crime, not target political dissidents. "China has a very serious
     public-security problem," he said in an interview last week. He blamed
     an epidemic of robbery and other crimes on the flood of poor migrants
     into China's cities and a growing wealth gap.

     Mr. Hu said Chongqing's new surveillance system will be tied in to an
     information network that Cisco is already building in the city, where
     Cisco has announced a high-profile alliance under a program it calls
     Smart+Connected Communitiesa**an initiative under which Cisco consults
     with governments around the world to use technology to tackle civic
     problems such as transportation, healthcare and education.

     According to the Chongqing government's website, Cisco Chief Executive
     John Chambers told the city's mayor in a meeting last year that he hoped
     the Smart+Connected project could create a "model in Chongqing which can
     be popularized in China."

     Executives at Western companies say they must weigh the possibility that
     technology could be misused against the business risks of missing out on
     a lucrative market. "We do have concerns," said Intergraph's Mr. Scott.
     "On the other hand, we want to do business there," he said, noting that
     the company's software is also used for environmental and other projects
     in China.

     "We're just the technology platform," he said, adding that it is the
     responsibility of the buyers "to meet and adhere to laws and policies"
     of their jurisdictions. Ultimately, Intergraph has "to manage the risk
     against the gain."

     In an April interview with the Journal, Bill Stuntz, general manager of
     Cisco's physical-security business, said Cisco gives careful
     consideration to how its products are used in China and doesn't want
     them to be used for repressive purposes. He declined to discuss specific
     projects in China but noted that sales of security equipment there have
     been expanding rapidly. He said Cisco is providing products that include
     networking equipment and servers along with support for some large
     video-surveillance systems, though not video cameras.

     China has become the fastest growing market for surveillance equipment,
     although it isn't yet the biggest, according to IMS Research, a U.K.
     firm that studies the market. The surveillance markets in the U.S. and
     Europe are growing at single-digit rates while surveillance-related
     revenue in China is growing at 23% a year. Surveillance-equipment sales
     alone, not including networking gear or software, totaled $1.7 billion
     last year.

     Chongqing's government says on its website that its current surveillance
     system is outdated, allowing police to directly tap into just 15,000 of
     the total 300,000 cameras. It wants the new system to be among the
     world's most advanced.

     Mr. Scott of Intergraph says Chongqing wants not only to increase camera
     count, but also to have video managed and delivered to dozens of police
     precincts and other organizations. The project presents challenges "that
     have not really been done anywhere else in the world," he said.

     Mr. Scott said his company spent three years developing software that
     enables multiple agencies to control cameras and also analyzes video
     feeds for unusual situations like fires or the formation of crowds.

     The number of surveillance cameras in Chinese cities including Chongqing
     appears to dwarf that of other cities around the world, though
     comparisons are tough because cities generally don't disclose their
     camera counts.

     A 2008 report by the state-run Xinhua news agency said Beijing had some
     280,000 cameras in its system. By comparison, privacy advocates in the
     U.S., including the American Civil Liberties Union, estimate Chicago has
     10,000 cameras. The New York Civil Liberties Union estimated in 2009
     that there were 8,000 cameras in New York.
     a**Kersten Zhang, Yoli Zhang, Jason Dean and Cari Tuna contributed to
     this article.

     Write to Loretta Chao at loretta.chao@wsj.com and Don Clark at
     don.clark@wsj.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 06:03:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5231105_re-ct-fwd-os-china-csm-ct-cisco-poised-to-help-china-keep-an.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>richmond@core.stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5231123</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] [OS] CHINA/CSM - Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in
 fraud probe
</title>
    <description>   Trapwire is software that integrates your security video hardware.

   On 7/5/11 1:22 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

     I agree with Alibaba and had flagged that too.  I didn't see the mention
     of trapwire in the story on Cisco.  Maybe I missed it.  Yes, keep me
     posted on any questions and I'll see what my contact can dig up.

     On 7/4/11 11:18 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       This is also a pretty good CSM topic.  some college kids running a
       scam through Alibaba (chinese ebay), took in a good amount of money. 

       If we had some good 'redism' related incidents, maybe I could write on
       that, but we'd need some very concise points to make. 

       Let me know what you guys think of this and the surveillance camera
       topic.

       Jen, I assume that Trapwire is a competitor to Cisco, but I'm not
       sure.  I don't know if trapwire makes the actual cameras or just does
       the analysis.   I won't have real questions till morning. 

       On 7/2/11 11:00 AM, Kevin Stech wrote:

         Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in fraud probe

         02 July 2011 - 08H10 

         http://www.france24.com/en/20110702-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-fraud-probe

          

         AFP - Police have arrested 36 people in southeast China following an
         investigation into fraud on e-commerce site Alibaba.com and other
         websites that duped buyers out of more than $6 million.

          

         Alizila.com, Alibaba's corporate news website, reported earlier this
         week the suspects were detained in Fujian province's Putian city in
         April. John Spelich, the firm's spokesman, confirmed the report to
         AFP on Saturday.

          

         The people arrested allegedly operated a criminal gang that used
         fake IDs to open more than 100 "Gold Supplier" accounts on
         Alibaba.com. This designation is given to those certified as highly
         trusted suppliers by the firm.

          

         This allowed the suspects to pose as legitimate companies selling to
         overseas businesses that source goods through Alibaba.com. Police
         said the alleged scammers also used other international trading
         websites.

          

         Alibaba.com, based in the eastern city of Hangzhou, has grown into
         one of China's largest Internet companies by matching mainland
         manufacturers and wholesalers with buyers around the world.

          

         But its reputation took a hit in February when the firm announced
         the resignation of chief executive David Wei and head of operations
         Elvis Lee after fraud was uncovered on the site.

          

         Wei and Lee were not involved in the scams but resigned because they
         took responsibility for "systemic breakdowns" that allowed the fraud
         to happen, Alibaba said at the time.

          

         But according to the Alizila report, the fraud was "sometimes
         abetted by Alibaba.com employees." But Spelich said Saturday none of
         the 36 arrested worked at the company.

          

         He added the number of fraud complaints received by the website in
         June was down 70 percent from February after Alibaba toughened
         procedures and other security measures.

          

         The report said Alibaba had refunded $1.9 million to those who lost
         their money to the alleged scammers.

         Click here to find out more!

          

         Kevin Stech

         Director of Research | STRATFOR

         kevin.stech@stratfor.com

         +1 (512) 744-4086

          

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 13:35:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5231123_re-ct-os-china-csm-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-in.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5231832</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-11 13:59:34</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5231832_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5256329</id>
    <title>[alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA/AZ/US/VZ/RUSSIA/TAIWAN - Erdogan's
 cancer, Turkish plan for Syria and more - TR325
</title>
    <description>   SOURCE: TR325 and his business partner
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Former NSC official in Turkey, adviser to Erdogan,
   energy expert negotiator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

   TR325's business partner has an old classmate friend who was the lead
   surgeon on Erdogan's most recent operation. He said that Erdogan has colon
   cancer, but they haven't seen the second biopsy results yet to see if it's
   metastasized. In the last operation, they cut out 20 cm of Erdogan's colon
   (I just looked up that the average colon is about 1.5m long.)  That's a
   really significant operation. Erdogan is not going to be able to travel
   for a while, and he's going to have to carry around with him a colonoscopy
   bag for at least 2-3 months.  The prognosis is not looking good, though.
   The surgeon said they were estimating 2 years for him.

   This is very likely going to cause major splits within the AKP.  Gul
   doesn't have much support.  Davutoglu is paranoid that everyone else is
   trying to undermine him (there's a definite competition between him and
   TR325.)  When I asked who Erdgogan trusts, two names were mentioned - Ali
   Babacan (Deputy PM) and Taner Yildiz (energy minister.)  Both sources were
   asking how the US is likely to react to this situation.  Would they try to
   back the military like the old days?  CHP is still very much divided. Both
   seemed to think the military won't be able to take advantage of the
   situation.

   On Syria - the conversation centered on how far Turkey is actually going
   to go.  TR325 explained that the Turkish plan is centered on civil war in
   Syria.  Officially, it's Turkey providing the main training,a rms and
   support to FSA. Unofficially, US and TUrkey are doing this together in
   deploying SOF for this mission.  Notice all the talk in the press now
   about civil war breaking out in Syria. This is the narrative Turkey and US
   want to build.  I pointed out that creating the conditions for civil war -
   actual neighborhood to neighborhood fighting - is still pretty difficult
   considering that the Alawite forces are still holding together, but he
   seemed to think that this can escalate within 2 months time. He also said
   without saying that they're working on making that happen. He acknowledges
   it'll be messy and it will take a lot of blood and time for a Sunni power
   to emerge in syria, but that this is the Turkish obligation.

   The Turkish plan to preempt the instability that would result from civil
   war conditions is to implement the buffer zone 5-40km into Syrian
   territory and set up refugee camps.  I asked what levers Iran and Syria
   have to get Turkey to back off in relation to PKK.  He said
   (half-jokingly) that Karilan is Turkey's man (ie. turkey can actually
   negotiate with him.)  But he said PKK third-in-command (still need to get
   this guy's name) answers to Syria and Iran. Turkey knows this very well
   and he says Syria and Iran are already making moves to threaten attacks
   via this faction.

   I'm left with a lot of questions --

   Given the instability that is likely to result within AKP over Erdogan's
   health, would Turkey really be making bold foreign policy moves, such as
   helping to create a civil war in Syria?

   Turkey appears very confident that Syria/Iran have the means to play the
   PKK card. Why risk that?

   Turkey knows they'll be dealing with a massive refugee crisis in Syria -
   why propel that situation?

   Some other points -

   TR325 believes AZ wiill be able to export 5-7bcm via ITGI for SDII. 
   Russia has its stake in Edison to keep a foothold in that route.  The rest
   he agrees is likely going to have to be shipped to Russia eventually since
   the Europeans aren't financing anything right now. He did say that SOCAR
   is flush with money right now and could actually put money down on these
   projects if they have the market demand and client base to do it.

   They were both asking me what is happening with Trinidad and Tobago. I
   told them I have no idea. They were asking because they are involved in a
   business deal to sell conventional subs to Trinidad and Tobago. They're
   assuming the US is preparing something for VZ.  They are also involved in
   similar submarine sales to Taiwan and Japan.
</description>
    <date>2011-12-10 20:04:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5256329_-alpha-insight-turkey-syria-az-us-vz-russia-taiwan-erdogan-s.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5262440</id>
    <title>Re: ANALYSIS FOR EDIT - RUSSIA/GREECE/GERMANY/EUROZONE - Greece:
 Why	Privatization Matters?
</title>
    <description>   When a change in phrasing is made, that change needs to be highlighted. It
   may seem innocent to change PASOK had been in power in Greece for 20 years
   since 1974. into PASOK had led the country for 20 years beginning in 1974,
   but it is not.

   On 6/9/11 11:44 AM, Ryan Bridges wrote:

     Title: Opportunities for Russia and China in Greek Privatization

      

     Teaser: Athens' privatization drive, while threatening Prime Minister
     George Papandreou's leadership of his party, is a chance for Russia and
     China to take over important Greek transportation and energy
     infrastructure.

      

     Summary: Greece's eurozone partners are demanding that Athens accelerate
     sales of public assets and allow an independent agency, likely to be
     heavily influenced by Germany, to lead the privatization drive. There is
     a risk that Greece's ruling PASOK party could rebel against Prime
     Minister George Papandreou and eurozone austerity measures. But the more
     significant long-term issue is that Russia and China could use the
     privatization to snatch up strategic Greek assets.

      

      

     Greece's privatization efforts have become central for the new
     approximately 65 billion to 70 billion euro ($94 billion to $101
     billion) bailout package being finalized by eurozone member states and
     expected to be approved by the June 20 eurozone finance ministers'
     meeting. As the chief condition of the new bailout plan, Greece's
     eurozone partners are demanding that Athens speed up its sale of
     publicly held assets and shift the responsibility of privatization from
     the government to an independent agency that would, sources tell
     STRATFOR, have considerable input from foreign governments. In other
     words, Greece needs to sell about 50 billion euros worth of public
     assets by 2015 and on terms that satisfy Germany and other eurozone
     countries, regardless of the preferences of the Greek state that owns
     the assets or the Greek public that depends on them for employment.

      

      

     Greek privatization is a divisive issue that is threatening Prime
     Minister George Papandreou's hold on his party. There is a danger that
     the ruling PASOK party could revolt against Papandreou and eurozone
     austerity measures, putting Europe's bailout efforts into question and
     sending the sovereign debt crisis spiraling toward Portugal and Spain.
     The long-term and geopolitical issue, however, is the effect that such
     wide-scale privatization will have on strategic Greek assets, such as
     ports and pipelines, which could find interested investors in Russia and
     China, giving these powers a back door into Europe's transportation and
     energy infrastructure. [Great summary]

      

      

     Pain of Privatization

      

      

     The new eurozone bailout plan has caused a political crisis in Greece.
     The planned privatization of state enterprises means further layoffs of
     public sector workers, and the Greek unemployment rate is already at
     16.2 percent, more than 3 percent higher than a year ago. Employees of
     Greek power utility PPC, telecommunication company OTE, and water
     utilities EYDAP and EYATH have called a 24-hour strike for June 9 to
     protest the privatization efforts, while the main private and public
     sector unions, GSEE and ADEDY, will organize a general strike in the
     country June 15.

      

      

     Privatization, under most conditions, is painful. Inefficiencies built
     into public companies due to political logic -- such as redundant
     employment, subsidized pricing of goods and services, and wage inflation
     -- are unraveled, to the consternation of a large segment of the
     population. Furthermore, management positions in publicly held utilities
     and businesses are often lucrative posts, which political leaders use to
     reward party loyalists, or are even directly funded from the revenue of
     the public companies. Thus, the workers facing unemployment and the
     citizens protesting higher prices for goods and services are not alone
     in resisting privatization; political elites, who are left without
     important sources of economic revenue and patronage, also oppose it.
     This explains why, historically, successful and thorough privatization
     drives require a political outsider in the country to take control and
     use privatization to evict established and entrenched elites. This is
     why most successful and thorough privatization drives usually occur when
     a political outsider takes control of a country and uses privatization
     to evict established and entrenched elites from power. [We mean
     political outsider as in opposition, not foreign power, right?]

      

      

     Papandreou and his PASOK are most definitely not political outsiders.
     Although it was out of power for five years before defeating the
     center-right Neu Demokratia in 2009, PASOK had led the country for 20
     years beginning in 1974. Therefore, the greatest danger in terms of
     dissent to privatization is not from the mounting protests and strikes
     on the streets of Athens and other Greek cities, which are largely
     apolitical and offer no real alternative to the ruling party, but from
     Papandreou's own party. 

      

     The events of the next few weeks will be crucial for Papandreou's
     ability to retain control of his party. Because PASOK's popularity has
     taken a dive, early elections would not benefit its members. Our
     tentative forecast is therefore that Papandreou will be able to use the
     prospect of being voted out of office to scare dissenting members of
     parliament into supporting the new austerity measures. This depends on a
     number of factors, including that street protests do not become violent
     or out of control, which we do not foresee happening.

     INSERT TABLE: Selected Greek Privatization Efforts

      

     Opportunities in Privatization

      

     A painful privatization drive for Greece, however, presents
     opportunities for others to gain assets at potentially below market
     value. German companies are taking interest in a number of Greek assets,
     which is certain to frustrate Greeks, who see the forced privatization
     drive as a loss of sovereignty and an insidious move by Berlin to
     acquire control of potentially lucrative companies on the cheap. On June
     6, as the new bailout agreement was being negotiated, Germany's Deutsche
     Telekom acquired a 10 percent stake in Hellenic Telecommunications (OTE)
     for around 400 million euros, giving German firms a 40 percent stake
     plus one share in OTE [I assume we mean various German companies and not
     the German government]. Athens is looking to sell another 6 percent of
     OTE to Deutsche Telekom, but the German telecommunication company has
     said it would invest further only if given full control over OTE's labor
     policies.

      

      

     Russian and Chinese companies also are looking to use Greek
     privatization for geopolitical gain. For China, Greece is an interesting
     strategic entry point into the Central and Eastern European emerging
     markets. China would use the Greek ports of Piraeus and Thessaloniki to
     bring its goods to the Balkans, former Soviet countries like Ukraine and
     Belarus, and Central European EU states like Hungary, Slovakia and
     Poland. Beijing's logic is that it could expand its trade in
     post-Communist Central and Eastern European countries where, considering
     the region's generally lower income, the price point for Chinese exports
     would be highly competitive. China Ocean Shipping Co. (COSCO) made an
     investment in Piraeus in June 2010, leasing two container terminals for
     35 years at a price of around $5 billion. COSCO's interest also was
     piqued when the Greek government announced plans to privatize its entire
     75 percent stake in the Piraeus port authority, and the Chinese company
     wants to expand its investment both there and in Thessaloniki. 

      

     Russia is interested in using Greece to block a key European alternative
     route for natural gas supplies. The European Union, which currently gets
     [insert figure] percent of its natural gas from Russia, is looking for
     alternatives to Russian-dominated natural gas transportation pipelines.
     At the forefront of the union's plans is the "southern gas corridor,"
     which is essentially an amalgamation of several different projects that
     would bring Azerbaijani and potentially Central Asian or Middle Eastern
     natural gas into Europe via Turkey. Greece is an important component of
     this plan since it rests on one route by which natural gas piped through
     Turkey would enter the European Union -- the other option would be to
     fork north through Bulgaria and Romania. From Greece, any proposed
     natural gas pipelines would have to make the short jump across the
     Strait of Otranto to Italy. [Even though it would be longer, would it be
     cheaper to go through Bulgaria/Romania since you don't have to build
     underwater?]

     INSERT: Map of Southern Corridor Options

      

     There are currently a number of proposed pipeline projects that would
     constitute the EU southern gas corridor, of which three are central. The
     Nabucco pipeline is supposed to take the northern route from Turkey to
     Austria via the Balkan EU member states. Two other pipelines would take
     the southerly route from Turkey into Greece -- the proposed
     Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) and the Interconnection
     Turkey-Greece-Italy (ITGI), of which the planned Poseidon offshore
     pipeline is the underwater part from Greece to Italy.

      

     The Greek government is directly involved in the ITGI project through
     its ownership of the Greek public natural gas company DEPA, which is
     collaborating with Italy's privately held natural gas company Edison.
     The key for Russia, specifically natural gas giant Gazprom, is blocking 
     [Changed because we say later that it wants to put Russian gas through
     the pipeline, not kill it] lies in this particular southern corridor
     project [Why not TAP too? Would the southern corridor fall apart if it
     lost one of the three?]. The offered proposed privatization of DEPA is
     therefore an interesting opportunity for the Kremlin. Gazprom has had
     its eyes on ITGI for years, negotiating with DEPA in 2010 to potentially
     gain an ownership stake in the project. The deal seems to have fallen
     through, with Gazprom now concentrating on the Greek plan to privatize
     DEPA -- as much as 32 percent may be up for sale. This would give Moscow
     a seat at the table when decisions are made about whose natural gas ITGI
     carries, turning ITGI from an alternative to Russian natural gas to an
     enabler of continued Gazprom dominance of Europe's natural gas market.

      

     The key question is whether Greece's eurozone neighbors will try to
     prevent China and Russia from gaining access to these geopolitically
     strategic assets. It is assumed that the new privatization agency,
     independent from Athens, would have major German influence since Berlin
     is contributing the most cash for the Greek bailouts. As such, would
     Berlin look to ensure that Athens' strategic assets are purchased by
     fellow eurozone member states and not by Russia and China? The answer is
     most likely no. Germany, an exporter of high-end, capital-intensive
     goods, does not consider China's low-cost goods export competition,
     which means there is no reason for Berlin to prevent Beijing's access to
     Eastern and Central European markets. Second, Germany has a budding
     political relationship with Russia, including a solid relationship
     between Germany's E.ON Ruhrgas and Gazprom. It therefore is unlikely
     that Berlin will do much to block Gazprom's designs in Greece either
     [With its plans to shut down all those nuclear power plants, Germany's
     big energy concern is probably making sure there's more natural gas
     flowing in, right? It wouldn't really care where it comes from so long
     as it comes]. Considering that Germany is expected to have the greatest
     influence in decisions made by the new privatization agency -- and that
     Berlin's interest is ultimately to get Athens to raise as much cash as
     possible -- we do not foresee Berlin standing in the way of Russia and
     China in Greece.

      

 --
 Marko Papic
 Senior Analyst
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 + 1-512-905-3091 (C)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
 www.stratfor.com
 @marko_papic
</description>
    <date>2011-06-10 15:13:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5262440_re-analysis-for-edit-russia-greece-germany-eurozone-greece.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>writers@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ryan.bridges@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5262851</id>
    <title>Re: G3*/SRM -- INDIA -- Magnitude 6.7 quake strikes off India
 islands
</title>
    <description>   The 2004 tsunami that originated from the same general area of south-east
   India did not hit Diego.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: friedman@att.blackberry.net
   To: "Analysts" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Friday, June 27, 2008 2:52:28 PM GMT +02:00 Harare / Pretoria
   Subject: Re: G3*/SRM -- INDIA -- Magnitude 6.7 quake strikes off India
   islands

   Any chance of a tsunami hitting diego?
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   -----Original Message-----
   From: Mark Schroeder &lt;mark.schroeder@stratfor.com&gt;

   Date: Fri, 27 Jun 2008 07:50:33
   To:Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: G3*/SRM -- INDIA -- Magnitude 6.7 quake strikes off India
   islands

   Diego Garcia is roughly 2,000 miles from the Andaman Islands.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Mark Schroeder" &lt;mark.schroeder@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: analysts@stratfor.com
   Sent: Friday, June 27, 2008 2:46:10 PM GMT +02:00 Harare / Pretoria
   Subject: Re: G3*/SRM -- INDIA -- Magnitude 6.7 quake strikes off India
   islands

   It is on the south-east coast of India. I'll find out how many miles.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: friedman@att.blackberry.net
   To: "Analysts" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;, "alerts" &lt;alerts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Friday, June 27, 2008 2:42:20 PM GMT +02:00 Harare / Pretoria
   Subject: Re: G3*/SRM -- INDIA -- Magnitude 6.7 quake strikes off India
   islands

   where is this in relation to diego garcia.
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   -----Original Message-----
   From: Aaron Colvin &lt;aaron.colvin@stratfor.com&gt;

   Date: Fri, 27 Jun 2008 08:36:35
   To:alerts &lt;alerts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: G3*/SRM -- INDIA -- Magnitude 6.7 quake strikes off India islands

   _______________________________________________
   alerts mailing list

   LIST ADDRESS:
   alerts@stratfor.com
   LIST INFO:
   https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/alerts
   LIST ARCHIVE:
   https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/alerts
   CLEARSPACE:
   https://clearspace.stratfor.com/community/analysts

   _______________________________________________
   alerts mailing list

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   _______________________________________________ Analysts mailing list LIST
   ADDRESS: analysts@stratfor.com LIST INFO:
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</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-13 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5262851_re-g3-srm-india-magnitude-6-7-quake-strikes-off-india.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mark.schroeder@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5264354</id>
    <title>Re: hello from Stratfor
</title>
    <description>   Hi Pascal, thanks for the response and the contact with Nick. Please let
   me know if I can ever provide you guys anything.

   Nick, no worries on that long-winded question. I'm just looking at
   Yaradua's next move that his consolidation of control over the military
   chiefs will allow him to make.

   Best regards,

   --Mark

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Pascal Fletcher" &lt;Pascal.Fletcher@thomsonreuters.com&gt;
   To: "Mark Schroeder" &lt;mark.schroeder@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: "Nicholas Tattersall" &lt;Nicholas.Tattersall@thomsonreuters.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, August 21, 2008 8:29:15 PM GMT +02:00 Harare / Pretoria
   Subject: RE: hello from Stratfor

   Hi Mark, I'm probably not best placed to answer your query as I've just
   come back from leave, but I'm copying in our Nigeria chief correspondent
   Nick Tattersall who should be able to give you a better read than me.
    
   Let's keep in touch.
    
   Brgds
    
   Pascal
    
   Pascal Fletcher
   Chief Correspondent, West and Central Africa

   Thomson Reuters

   Phone: +221 33 864 5076
   Mobile: +221 77 569 1702

   pascal.fletcher@thomsonreuters.com
   http://africa.reuters.com

   Reuters Senegal,
   Rue des Ecrivains x Rue G, Point E
   B.P. 45 541 Dakar-Fann
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Mark Schroeder [mailto:mark.schroeder@stratfor.com]
   Sent: 21 August 2008 15:02
   To: Pascal Fletcher
   Subject: hello from Stratfor
   Dear Pascal:

   We chatted on the phone a few months back, and I wanted to get in touch
   with you with a question on Nigeria, following the sacking by Yaradua of
   the military service chiefs. It looks to be a more or less normal
   leadership transition move. Even though it came roughly 16 months after
   Yaradua came into power, this is still quick compared to the years it took
   Putin or Merkel to put their people into top military leadership
   positions.

   Question, though: Yaradua can do this to help see through his own
   preferred policies. He's publicly a man for democracy, transparency, the
   rule of law, energy sector reconstruction, Niger Delta resolution. But is
   there a single intent he's aiming for (besides distancing himself from
   Obasanjo)?

   Thanks for keeping in touch.

   My best,

   -Mark

   Mark Schroeder
   STRATFOR
   Regional Director, Sub Saharan Africa
   Tel:  +27.31.539.2040 (South Africa)
   Cell: +27.71.490.7080 (South Africa)
   Tel:  +1.512.782.9920 (U.S.)
   Cell: +1.512.905.9837 (U.S.)
   E-mail: mark.schroeder@stratfor.com
   Web: www.stratfor.com

   This email was sent to you by Thomson Reuters, the global news and
   information company.
   Any views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender,
   except where the sender specifically states them to be the views of
   Thomson Reuters.
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-06 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5264354_re-hello-from-stratfor-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mark.schroeder@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>nicholas.tattersall@thomsonreuters.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Pascal.Fletcher@thomsonreuters.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5268183</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] [OS] CHINA/CSM - Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in
 fraud probe
</title>
    <description>   I agree with Alibaba and had flagged that too.  I didn't see the mention
   of trapwire in the story on Cisco.  Maybe I missed it.  Yes, keep me
   posted on any questions and I'll see what my contact can dig up.

   On 7/4/11 11:18 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     This is also a pretty good CSM topic.  some college kids running a scam
     through Alibaba (chinese ebay), took in a good amount of money. 

     If we had some good 'redism' related incidents, maybe I could write on
     that, but we'd need some very concise points to make. 

     Let me know what you guys think of this and the surveillance camera
     topic.

     Jen, I assume that Trapwire is a competitor to Cisco, but I'm not sure. 
     I don't know if trapwire makes the actual cameras or just does the
     analysis.   I won't have real questions till morning. 

     On 7/2/11 11:00 AM, Kevin Stech wrote:

       Alibaba says China police arrest 36 in fraud probe

       02 July 2011 - 08H10 

       http://www.france24.com/en/20110702-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-fraud-probe

        

       AFP - Police have arrested 36 people in southeast China following an
       investigation into fraud on e-commerce site Alibaba.com and other
       websites that duped buyers out of more than $6 million.

        

       Alizila.com, Alibaba's corporate news website, reported earlier this
       week the suspects were detained in Fujian province's Putian city in
       April. John Spelich, the firm's spokesman, confirmed the report to AFP
       on Saturday.

        

       The people arrested allegedly operated a criminal gang that used fake
       IDs to open more than 100 "Gold Supplier" accounts on Alibaba.com.
       This designation is given to those certified as highly trusted
       suppliers by the firm.

        

       This allowed the suspects to pose as legitimate companies selling to
       overseas businesses that source goods through Alibaba.com. Police said
       the alleged scammers also used other international trading websites.

        

       Alibaba.com, based in the eastern city of Hangzhou, has grown into one
       of China's largest Internet companies by matching mainland
       manufacturers and wholesalers with buyers around the world.

        

       But its reputation took a hit in February when the firm announced the
       resignation of chief executive David Wei and head of operations Elvis
       Lee after fraud was uncovered on the site.

        

       Wei and Lee were not involved in the scams but resigned because they
       took responsibility for "systemic breakdowns" that allowed the fraud
       to happen, Alibaba said at the time.

        

       But according to the Alizila report, the fraud was "sometimes abetted
       by Alibaba.com employees." But Spelich said Saturday none of the 36
       arrested worked at the company.

        

       He added the number of fraud complaints received by the website in
       June was down 70 percent from February after Alibaba toughened
       procedures and other security measures.

        

       The report said Alibaba had refunded $1.9 million to those who lost
       their money to the alleged scammers.

       Click here to find out more!

        

       Kevin Stech

       Director of Research | STRATFOR

       kevin.stech@stratfor.com

       +1 (512) 744-4086

        

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-05 07:22:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5268183_re-ct-os-china-csm-alibaba-says-china-police-arrest-36-in.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5280688</id>
    <title>Re: Fwd: RE: Pls fwd to Fred
</title>
    <description>   Do we trust everyone on the list enough to reveal the source's physical
   location?  I was going to remove it, just in case...

   On 9/14/11 9:19 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

     Go, we may want to find that house; note grid coordinates.  I would post
     in context to the threat. 

     On 9/14/2011 8:16 AM, Anya Alfano wrote:

       Okay to post?

       On 9/14/11 9:15 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

         Good skinny.  This is what is defined as a credible source.  Not
         some windbag Paki academic belching and passing gas. 

         -------- Original Message --------

         Subject: RE: Pls fwd to Fred                         
            Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2011 09:12:30 -0400             
            From: James F. Smith &lt;jamie@scginternational.com&gt; 
              To: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;           

         Completely.

         Last week of August I was at a house here (32DEG 52.552'N / 13DEG
         8.512'E) owned by a man last name Hakin (like the MOD Hakin but not
         the same man).

         After midnight we recv'd ph call from anonymous caller telling him
         to get ready for a vehicle to come by to pick him up and take him to
         a pos so he could pickup some money.

         We then called a contact at MOD and ran it by them, they knew of the
         ruse somehow and said it was a trap aimed at the real Hakin (MOD
         head) and that we should vacate asap.

         We grabbed weapons, go-bag and moved out of the house on foot down
         the streets (can't drive this area due to roadblocks at every
         corner) to a safe(r) house. I happened to be solo that night. I
         moved him to the top of the house (3rd deck), barricaded the door on
         ground and the access to the roof, then put him down and maintained
         overwatch of the street below from the roof til dawn.

         This happens frequently here. Definite threat to NTC and lower level
         brigade leadership as well.

          

         From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
         Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 9:06 AM
         To: James F. Smith
         Subject: Re: Pls fwd to Fred

          

         Credible in your eyes? 

         On 9/14/2011 8:02 AM, James F. Smith wrote:

         Rgr//thank you.

          

         From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
         Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 8:49 AM
         To: James F. Smith
         Subject: Re: Pls fwd to Fred

          

         Libyan source warns of possible assassination operations against NTC
         members

         Excerpt from report by Saudi-owned leading pan-Arab daily Al-Sharq
         al-Awsat website on 14 September

         [Report by Khalid Mahmud in Cairo: "Libya: Revolutionaries'
         Disagreements Impede Search for Fugitive Al-Qadhafi"]

         The efforts to arrest the fugitive Libyan Colonel Mu'ammar
         al-Qadhafi, who is still somewhere unknown inside Libyan
         territories, receded relatively yesterday as the revolutionaries and
         the Transitional National Council [NTC] became preoccupied with
         disagreements that escalated and surfaced for the first time with
         Islamic political groups that opened fire early at the NTC at an
         unexpected end of the honeymoon which did not last long between the
         two sides.

         While NTC Chairman Counsellor Mustafa Abd-al-Jalil was issuing from
         Martyrs Square in the Libyan capital Tripoli messages to assure the
         Western coalition backing the revolutionaries that he would not
         allow any extremist ideology, whether from the right or the left,
         Ali al-Salabi, the prominent leader in the Muslim Brotherhood [MB]
         group, came out with unprecedented violent and sharp criticisms of
         Dr Mahmud Jibril, chairman of the NTC's Executive Bureau, which
         reached the point of demanding his resignation.

         These developments prompted a high-level official in the NTC to warn
         of possible assassinations against some NTC members, particularly in
         view of the proliferation of weapons all over the country. This
         official, who asked to remain unnamed, said by telephone from
         Tripoli "we fear that the political clash will lead to a military
         one. There are fears of assassination operations like that of martyr
         Major General Abd-al-Fattah Yunus", the former commander of the
         revolutionaries forces who was assassinated in mysterious
         circumstances by gunmen believed to be Islamists in Benghazi at the
         end of July. [Passage omitted on Abd-al-Jalil's speech, Al-Salabi's
         statements]

         In view of this unexpected attack by Al-Salabi, sources close to
         Jibril disclosed to Al-Sharq al-Awsat that Jibril refused to give
         the MB more than one ministerial portfolio in the government he
         intends to form from about 20 ministers. The sources said the MB
         sought in the past to persuade Jibril to give it five ministerial
         portfolios, among them the awqaf, information, and interior
         ministries, but he refused from the premise that this would put the
         country within the framework of a quota government and not a
         government of technocrats that carries out its responsibilities
         during the transitional period of 18 months.

         Libyan activists and politicians told Al-Sharq al-Awsat yesterday
         that they called for a march that was supposed to be staged last
         night from outside Al-Mahari Hotel in Tripoli to denounce
         Al-Salabi's statements as part of similar demonstrations aimed at
         stressing that there is a public opinion against such views.

         A NTC official told Al-Sharq al-Awsat the NTC is being subjected to
         what he called "a campaign of distortion" by some political trends
         which believe it threatens their interests and endeavours to occupy
         leading posts in the next government. The official, who asked to
         remain unnamed, added "this is an overt and public blackmail
         campaign. We will not allow the NTC and its government to be dragged
         to these dirty tricks. We still have before us momentous and very
         grave tasks and what is happening is mere political drivel whose
         time has not yet come."

         Al-Sharq al-Awsat has learned that Dr Jibril is coming under
         political pressures from the armed groups and revolutionaries to
         give them ministerial posts too. An official connected to the
         upcoming government told this newspaper: "Yes, he (Jibril) is coming
         under pressures but refuses to yield to them. His task as he sees it
         is to form a national government based on the principle of
         competence and professionalism before any other considerations."

         But a NTC member said the formation of the new government might not
         be easy because it would not have everybody's support and pointed
         out that all the political forces are now aspiring to play a public
         political role and obtain the price for their participation in or
         backing for the Libyan people's uprising against Al-Qadhafi.

         Amidst these political disagreements which prove that the honeymoon
         between the Islamists and NTC has ended prematurely, the efforts to
         locate the whereabouts of the fugitive Col. Al-Qadhafi, his sons,
         and his senior military and security aides have slowed down at a
         time when the revolutionaries are fighting fierce battles with the
         colonel's remnant forces to retake his last strongholds in Sirte and
         Bani Walid.

         A security official in the special unit hunting Al-Qadhafi said the
         efforts exerted to pinpoint his whereabouts since his escape from
         Tripoli on 21 August were mostly unsuccessful. Speaking by telephone
         from Tripoli on condition of remaining anonymous, the official added
         "we have conflicting information. No one has anything definite about
         his (Al-Qadhafi's) hideout. We are still hoping to reach him as
         quickly as possible." He pointed out that the reason for the delay
         in forming the new government under Dr Jibril has to do with
         Al-Qadhafi's arrest or killing, adding "we want the announcement of
         the government to be done with the announcement with the regime's
         official and final downfall and this cannot be done if we do not
         arrest Al-Qadhafi or kill him if he refused to surrender."

         In the field, the revolutionaries appeared yesterday to be on the
         verge of attacking the city of Bani Walid where forces loyal to
         Al-Qadhafi are entrenched amidst the large-scale exodus of the
         city's citizens who described the living conditions inside it as
         miserable because of the communications and electricity stoppages.
         The revolutionaries stopped their advance to resolve the city's fate
         for some time so as to enable these citizens to escape somewhere far
         from the fighting while Al-Qadhafi's forces reinforced their
         military positions inside the city and made rooftops the pads for
         missile launchers, according to remarks by military sources to the
         revolutionaries' "Libya al-Ahrar" channel.

         Violent clashes erupted between the revolutionaries and the
         regiments in the streets of Sirte, Al-Qadhafi's birthplace, as
         reports circulated that his son Al-Mu'tasim, who is the national
         security adviser, is in the city. The revolutionaries succeeded in
         forcing Al-Qadhafi's forces to retreat towards Harawah which is
         situated 70 km east of Sirte before advancing for 50 km from the
         west to announce also that they had reached the outskirts of Brak
         al-Shati which is only 70 km from Sabha.

         Source: Al-Sharq al-Awsat website, London, in Arabic 14 Sep 11

         BBC Mon ME1 MEPol vs

         On 9/12/2011 1:51 PM, James F. Smith wrote:

 No, mainly tac ground training and psd for key figures.

  

 Sent from my iPhone

  

 On Sep 12, 2011, at 14:28, "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&lt;mailto:burton@stratfor.com&gt;&gt; wrote:

  

 Tactical and intel support too?

  

 On 9/12/2011 10:49 AM, James F. Smith wrote:

  

 Certainly are. They need it. At the request of a usg committee and the rebs. Been there since no-fly.

 JS

 Sent by mobile device

  

 ________________________________

 From: Fred Burton &lt;&lt;mailto:burton@stratfor.com&gt;burton@stratfor.com&lt;mailto:burton@stratfor.com&gt;&gt;

 To: James F. Smith

 Sent: Mon Sep 12 11:21:44 2011

 Subject: Re: Fwd: Fwd: Pls fwd to Fred

 Interesting.  You guys lending the opposition a hand?  I would hope so.

  

 On 9/12/2011 9:59 AM, James F. Smith wrote:

  

 I just got back and am heading back either this week or next. Still working logs on travel.

 JS

 Sent by mobile device

  

 ________________________________

 From: Fred Burton &lt;&lt;mailto:burton@stratfor.com&gt;burton@stratfor.com&lt;mailto:burton@stratfor.com&gt;&gt;

 To: James F. Smith

 Sent: Mon Sep 12 10:52:34 2011

 Subject: Fwd: Fwd: Pls fwd to Fred

 Hello James,   Very interesting and thorough report.   Are you heading into Libya?   Thanks, Fred

  

 ---

  

 Fred,

  

 I tried sending this via Yahoo, but it was kicked back by your servers.

 Let me know if you get this. I'm going back to the AO next week.

 Any RFI's just let me know.

 Yes, we have a stratfor acct under this email address.

  

 James Smith

 SCG, LLC

 www.scginternational.com&lt;http://www.scginternational.com/&gt;

 jamie@scginternational.com&lt;mailto:jamie@scginternational.com&gt;

 +1 757 469 9512 m

 +1 757 390 3356 o

 +1 703 995 4550 f

 1369 Laskin Road, Suite 5

 Virginia Beach, Virginia 23451, USA

  

 U.S. Veteran Owned &amp; Operated

 The information in this communication and any attachments herein are confidential and may be legally privileged. It is intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom it is addressed and others authorized to receive it. This email may also contain information in reference to certain commodities that are not able to be exported without a valid license issued by the U.S. Department of State - Directorate of Defense Trade Controls, as prescribed in the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), Title 22, Code of Federal Regulation, Parts 120-130. If you are not the intended recipient you are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution or taking action in reliance of the contents of this information is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful.

  
</description>
    <date>2011-09-14 15:23:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5280688_re-fwd-re-pls-fwd-to-fred-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5282628</id>
    <title>Re: Public Policy Question for Coca-Cola
</title>
    <description>   Interesting, thanks Fred.

   Fred Burton wrote:

     The FBI has a classified investigation on PETA operatives. I'll see what
     I can uncover.

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "scott stewart"
     Date: Tue, 2 Jun 2009 11:01:30 -0400
     To: 'bart mongoven'&lt;bart.mongoven@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: RE: Public Policy Question for Coca-Cola
     Yeah, I'm not sure how that works now either.  Bart, is this something
     you guys can still help with?
      
      
      
      
      

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Tuesday, June 02, 2009 10:56 AM
     To: Fred Burton; scott stewart
     Subject: Public Policy Question for Coca-Cola
     Coca-Cola just sent me a long list of questions regarding PETA/Animal
     Activism and the upcoming Olympics in Vancouver--I've pasted the
     questions below.  I'm not entirely clear on how much we can task the
     public policy group at this point--is there any guidance you can give me
     on that front?  Coke has asked for a short teleconference with one of
     our analysts to discuss this issue--is that something I could ask Kathy,
     Bart or Joe to do, or would that be off the table at this point?  Stick,
     are these questions something that you have a handle on, if we aren't
     able to get info from the policy folks? 

     Any thoughts or guidance would be helpful. Thanks, Anya

     Questions---
     -- How many PETA supporters are there in Canada?
     -- How many of these are inclined toward activism?
     -- To what extent will US-based PETA supporters travel to Canada to
     support activism?
     -- What is PETA's methodology for planning and executing activism?
      (Understanding this better would certainly help us to recognize
     indicators should they appear.)
     -- To what extent is PETA in Canada linked to PETA in the US or
     elsewhere?
     -- To what extent are the actions of PETA in one country controlled by
     an oversight board/governing body?
     -- To what extent could non-PETA hangers-on (such as anarchists or ALF
     supporters) get involved in any protest activity?
</description>
    <date>2009-06-02 17:21:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5282628_re-public-policy-question-for-coca-cola-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bart.mongoven@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burtonfb@att.blackberry.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5284848</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
</title>
    <description>   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of "taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the "Anonymous Veracruz" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that "loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels," according to the blog "eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-11 13:59:34</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5284848_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5287911</id>
    <title>Re: Fw: CIA spies outed in Lebanon
</title>
    <description>   Some of this feels like disinfo.  If the CIA lost a few people in Beirut,
   it would be reasonable for them to send a few "current and former US
   Officials" to the AP to "leak" a story that the all US coverage of Hez has
   been "wiped out" -- best way to stop the search for more informants. 

   On 11/21/11 10:03 AM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Goldman, Adam" &lt;agoldman@ap.org&gt;
     Date: Mon, 21 Nov 2011 08:56:44 -0600 (CST)
     To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: RE: CIA spies outed in Lebanon

     Thanks! Been working on this for a while. It's bad. CIA's Hezbollah
     coverage has been wiped out.

      

     From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Monday, November 21, 2011 8:05 AM
     To: Goldman, Adam
     Subject: Fwd: CIA spies outed in Lebanon

      

     Great work Adam! 

     AP Exclusive: Spies Outed, CIA Suffers In Lebanon

     http://www.salon.com/2011/11/21/ap_exclusive_spies_outed_cia_suffers_in_lebanon_2/

     Monday, Nov 21, 2011 10:17 AM 11:15:26 GMT+0200

     By Adam Goldman and Matt Apuzzo, Associated Press

     WASHINGTON (AP) - The CIA's operations in Lebanon have been badly
     damaged after Hezbollah identified and captured a number of U.S. spies
     recently, current and former U.S. officials told The Associated Press.
     The intelligence debacle is particularly troubling because the CIA saw
     it coming.

     Hezbollah's longtime leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, boasted on
     television in June that he had rooted out at least two CIA spies who had
     infiltrated the ranks of Hezbollah, which the U.S. considers a terrorist
     group closely allied with Iran. Though the U.S. Embassy in Lebanon
     officially denied the accusation, current and former officials concede
     that it happened and the damage has spread even further.

     In recent months, CIA officials have secretly been scrambling to protect
     their remaining spies - foreign assets or agents working for the agency
     - before Hezbollah can find them.

     To be sure, some deaths are to be expected in shadowy spy wars. It's an
     extremely risky business and people get killed. But the damage to the
     agency's spy network in Lebanon has been greater than usual, several
     former and current U.S. officials said, speaking on condition of
     anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about
     security matters.

     The Lebanon crisis is the latest mishap involving CIA
     counterintelligence, the undermining or manipulating of the enemy's
     ability to gather information. Former CIA officials have said that
     once-essential skill has been eroded as the agency shifted from
     outmaneuvering rival spy agencies to fighting terrorists. In the rush
     for immediate results, former officers say, tradecraft has suffered.

     The most recent high-profile example was the suicide bomber who posed as
     an informant and killed seven CIA employees and wounded six others in
     Khost, Afghanistan in December 2009.

     Last year, then-CIA director Leon Panetta said the agency had to
     maintain "a greater awareness of counterintelligence." But eight months
     later, Nasrallah let the world know he had bested the CIA, demonstrating
     that the agency still struggles with this critical aspect of spying and
     sending a message to those who would betray Hezbollah.

     The CIA was well aware the spies were vulnerable in Lebanon. CIA
     officials were warned, including the chief of the unit that supervises
     Hezbollah operations from CIA headquarters in Langley, Va., and the head
     of counterintelligence. It remains unclear whether anyone has been or
     will be held accountable in the wake of this counterintelligence
     disaster or whether the incident will affect the CIA's ability to
     recruit assets in Lebanon.

     In response to AP's questions about what happened in Lebanon, a U.S.
     official said Hezbollah is recognized as a complicated enemy responsible
     for killing more Americans than any other terrorist group before
     September 2001. The agency does not underestimate the organization, the
     official said.

     The CIA's toughest adversaries, like Hezbollah and Iran, have for years
     been improving their ability to hunt spies, relying on patience and
     guile to exploit counterintelligence holes.

     In 2007, for instance, when Ali-Reza Asgari, a brigadier general in the
     Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps of Iran, disappeared in Turkey, it
     was assumed that he was either killed or defected. In response, the
     Iranian government began a painstaking review of foreign travel by its
     citizens, particularly to places like Turkey where Iranians don't need a
     visa and could meet with foreign intelligence services.

     It didn't take long, a Western intelligence official told the AP, before
     the U.S., Britain and Israel began losing contact with some of their
     Iranian spies.

     The State Department last year described Hezbollah as "the most
     technically capable terrorist group in the world," and the Defense
     Department estimates it receives between $100 million and $200 million
     per year in funding from Iran.

     Backed by Iran, Hezbollah has built a professional counterintelligence
     apparatus that Nasrallah - whom the U.S. government designated an
     international terrorist a decade ago - proudly describes as the "spy
     combat unit." U.S. intelligence officials believe the unit, which is
     considered formidable and ruthless, went operational in about 2004.

     Using the latest commercial software, Nasrallah's spy-hunters unit began
     methodically searching for spies in Hezbollah's midst. To find them,
     U.S. officials said, Hezbollah examined cellphone data looking for
     anomalies. The analysis identified cellphones that, for instance, were
     used rarely or always from specific locations and only for a short
     period of time. Then it came down to old-fashioned, shoe-leather
     detective work: Who in that area had information that might be worth
     selling to the enemy?

     The effort took years but eventually Hezbollah, and later the Lebanese
     government, began making arrests. By one estimate, 100 Israeli assets
     were apprehended as the news made headlines across the region in 2009.
     Some of those suspected Israeli spies worked for telecommunications
     companies and served in the military.

     Back at CIA headquarters, the arrests alarmed senior officials. The
     agency prepared a study on its own vulnerabilities, U.S. officials said,
     and the results proved to be prescient.

     The analysis concluded that the CIA was susceptible to the same analysis
     that had compromised the Israelis, the officials said.

     CIA managers were instructed to be extra careful about handling sources
     in Lebanon. A U.S. official said recommendations were issued to counter
     the potential problem.

     But it's unclear what preventive measures were taken by the Hezbollah
     unit chief or the officer in charge of the Beirut station. Former
     officials say the Hezbollah unit chief is no stranger to the necessity
     of counterintelligence and knew the risks. The unit chief has worked
     overseas in hostile environments like Afghanistan and played an
     important role in the capture of a top terrorist while stationed in the
     Persian Gulf region after the attacks of 9/11.

     "We've lost a lot of people in Beirut over the years, so everyone should
     know the drill," said a former Middle East case officer familiar with
     the situation.

     But whatever actions the CIA took, they were not enough. Like the
     Israelis, bad tradecraft doomed these CIA assets and the agency
     ultimately failed to protect them, an official said. In some instances,
     CIA officers fell into predictable patterns when meeting their sources,
     the official said.

     This allowed Hezbollah to identify assets and case officers and unravel
     at least part of the CIA's spy network in Lebanon. There was also a
     reluctance to share cases and some files were put in "restricted
     handling." The designation severely limits the number of people who know
     the identity of the source but also reduces the number of experts who
     could spot problems that might lead to their discovery, officials said.

     Nasrallah's televised announcement in June was followed by
     finger-pointing among departments inside the CIA as the spy agency tried
     figure out what went wrong and contain the damage.

     The fate of these CIA assets is unknown. Hezbollah treats spies
     differently, said Matthew Levitt, a counterterrorism and intelligence
     expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Studies who's writing a
     book about the terrorist organization

     "It all depends on who these guys were and what they have to say,"
     Levitt said. "Hezbollah has disappeared people before. Others they have
     kept around."

     Who's responsible for the mess in Lebanon? It's not clear. The chief of
     Hezbollah operations at CIA headquarters continues to run the unit that
     also focuses on Iranians and Palestinians. The CIA's top
     counterintelligence officer, who was one of the most senior women in the
     clandestine service, recently retired after approximately five years in
     the job. She is credited with some important cases, including the recent
     arrests of Russian spies who had been living in the U.S. for years.

     Officials said the woman was succeeded by a more experienced operations
     officer. That officer has held important posts in Moscow, Southeast
     Asia, Europe and the Balkans, important frontlines of the agency's spy
     wars with foreign intelligence services and terrorist organizations.

     The information contained in this communication is intended for the use
     of the designated recipients named above. If the reader of this
     communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified
     that you have received this communication in error, and that any review,
     dissemination, distribution or copying of this communication is strictly
     prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please
     notify The Associated Press immediately by telephone at +1-212-621-1898
     and delete this email. Thank you.
     [IP_US_DISC]msk dccc60c6d2c3a6438f0cf467d9a4938

 --
 Anya Alfano
 Briefer
 STRATFOR
 T: 1.415.404.7344 | M: 221.77.816.4937
 www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-21 16:10:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 02:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5287911_re-fw-cia-spies-outed-in-lebanon-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5288871</id>
    <title>Fwd: [Analytical &amp; Intelligence Comments] RE: Taking Stock of WikiLeaks
</title>
    <description>   -------- Original Message --------

    Subject: [Analytical &amp; Intelligence Comments] RE: Taking Stock of         
             WikiLeaks                                                        
       Date: Wed, 15 Dec 2010 10:30:13 -0600 (CST)                            
       From: jackk@chicagobancorp.com                                         
   Reply-To: Responses List &lt;responses@stratfor.com&gt;, Analyst List            
             &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;                                          
         To: responses@stratfor.com                                           

 Jack Kinsey sent a message using the contact form at 
 https://www.stratfor.com/contact.

 I recently read a NYTimes article which pointed out that many Afghan 
 informants were put at risk as they were named in the documents.  Here is a 
 quote from that article
 "Steve Coll, an expert on the region and a former senior editor of The 
 Washington Post, said in a New Yorker podcast on Thursday, "my reading of 
 the disclosure of these informants in the context of Taliban-menaced southern 
 Afghanistan is that people named in those documents have a reasonable belief 
 that they are going to get killed, or - actually the way it works with the 
 Taliban is, if they can't find you, they'll take your brother 
 instead.""

 This doesn't quite square with your analysis to me.  Would greatly appreciate 
 your comments.

 However I always enjoy and appreciate your articles and they are always well 
 thought out and thought provoking.






 Source: 
 http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20101213-taking-stock-wikileaks?utm_source=GWeekly&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=101214&amp;utm_content=readmore&amp;elq=61bd8106a2624b82ba536dba642ca476
</description>
    <date>2010-12-15 17:36:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 23:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5288871_fwd-analytical-and-intelligence-comments-re-taking-stock-of.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>fred.burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5293788</id>
    <title>Re: syrian opposition
</title>
    <description>   Ashley has been tracking this so I'll see if she has a list.

   On 12/13/11 2:35 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

     Source is meeting w/specific people described as key leaders. 

     On 12/13/2011 2:30 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

       We provided an overview in an analysis below. Multiple actors that
       make up the opposition.

       http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110928-syrian-opposition-perception-and-reality

  Makeup of the Opposition

       There are factions of the opposition that operate both inside Syria
       and outside. The external opposition is highly fractured, composed of
       people who cannot account authoritatively for the reality on the
       ground.

       The protests on the ground consist primarily of young and middle-aged
       men, though women and children are also present at times. The largest
       protests materialize after Friday prayers, when participants
       congregate on the streets outside mosques. That is not to say protests
       are relegated solely to Fridays; a number of demonstrations have been
       held on other days of the week but on a smaller scale. These protests
       also consist of men, women and children of all ages.

       But the opposition is ideologically diverse. A key element of what is
       considered Syria's traditional opposition - groups that have long been
       opposed to the regime - is the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), which
       the regime has demonized throughout the unrest. In 1976, the Syrian MB
       began an armed insurgency against the Alawite regime, led at the time
       by al Assad's father, Hafez. By 1982 the group was crushed in the
       notorious Hama massacre that allegedly killed some 30,000 civilians.
       The MB was driven underground, and dissenters in other Sunni majority
       cities, including Jisr al-Shughour, were quickly stamped out.

       Today, the Syrian MB remains a key participant in the opposition
       movement, but its capabilities inside Syria are weak. Syrian MB leader
       Ali Bayanouni resides in exile in London, and the Syrian MB outside
       Syria has become increasingly involved in the external opposition
       movement, participating in conferences such as the NCS conference in
       Istanbul in late August.

       However, the Syrian MB is unable to maintain much influence in Syria
       due to a limited presence inside the country, and it would take a
       concerted effort on the part of the Islamist group to earn the trust
       and fellowship of other Syrians. Since the banning of the Syrian MB in
       1980, al Assad's regime has been quick to blame the organization for
       militant attacks as a means of instilling fear of the MB among Syrian
       citizens. Christians, Alawites, and even other Muslims are wary of a
       conservative Sunni group gaining political influence in the regime.

       Opposition has also traditionally been found in Syria's mostly Kurdish
       northeast due to the Kurds' long-standing grievances against the
       regime, which has denied the group basic rights and citizenship. The
       Kurds have taken part in conferences led by the external opposition,
       such as the NCS meeting in Istanbul. Protests have meanwhile occurred
       in Kurdish majority cities such as Darbasiyah, Amuda and Qamishli, but
       they have not reached the scale of unrest as those in
       Sunni-concentrated areas. The Kurds and Sunnis may share the desire
       for regime change, but once the goal of regime change is achieved,
       whoever is in power, aside from the Kurds, will seek to contain
       Kurdish separatism. There already have been indications that Kurdish
       representatives among Syria's protest movement are being excluded from
       the process of drafting demands.

       The Syrian MB and the Kurds are two of several groups that have tried
       to coalesce, without much success, into a more substantial opposition
       force inside Syria in recent years. These groups took advantage of the
       Syrian regime's weakened position following the withdrawal from
       Lebanon in the spring of 2005 by drafting and signing the Damascus
       Declaration in October of the same year. Written by Syrian dissident
       Michel Kilo, the declaration was a statement of unity calling for
       political reforms. Declaration signatories include the Kurdish
       Democratic Alliance in Syria and the Kurdish Democratic Front in
       Syria. The Syrian MB was originally part of the Damascus Declaration,
       but internal disagreements led the MB to distance itself from this
       opposition movement in 2009. Disunity among the opposition remains to
       this day.

       Despite the disconnect between the external and internal opposition
       forces, some progress is being made to bridge the gap. Of the various
       councils formed by opposition members outside Syria, the NCS has
       recently emerged as the only council that has received the support of
       the Local Coordinating Committees (LLC), a group that claims to unite
       roughly 120 smaller coordinating committees across Syria. The NCS was
       selected by a diverse committee of independents, leftists, liberals
       and Kurds and claims that roughly half of its members, which include
       grassroots activists and traditional opposition supporters, are based
       inside Syria.

       In the past, the LLC and many other internal Syrian opposition groups,
       fearing competition, have been quick to denounce the formation of
       these external councils. Although many logistical constraints of
       uniting the external and internal opposition persist, the fact that
       the LLC has pledged support for the NCS and called upon the Damascus
       Declaration parties and Kurdish leadership to do so mean this should
       be watched as a potential sign of the opposition gaining coherence.

        
       On 12/13/11 2:20 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 do we know who the opposition is?  any names of potential leaders?
</description>
    <date>2011-12-13 21:36:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-19 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5293788_re-syrian-opposition-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anya.alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5299649</id>
    <title>Re: FW: Insight - Iran Nukes
</title>
    <description>   Any idea what they're waiting for? 

   Fred Burton wrote:

     The Jews are crazier than the Iranians. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Friday, December 11, 2009 4:09 PM
     To: Fred Burton
     Cc: 'korena zucha'
     Subject: Re: FW: Insight - Iran Nukes
     Always knew you were Fred.  :) 

     Any idea when they're going to hit?  Will they ruin Christmas?

     Fred Burton wrote:

       I've never asked him. He thinks I'm CIA, which I may be. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
       Sent: Friday, December 11, 2009 4:07 PM
       To: Fred Burton
       Cc: 'korena zucha'
       Subject: Re: FW: Insight - Iran Nukes
       Does he respect gf?  Serious question.

       Fred Burton wrote:

         my source is bb (eyes only) 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: Korena Zucha [mailto:zucha@stratfor.com]
         Sent: Friday, December 11, 2009 2:46 PM
         To: secure@stratfor.com
         Cc: Fred Burton
         Subject: Insight - Iran Nukes
         From Fred-

         According to an Israeli source, Iran has two nukes on missiles ready
         to go. 

         The Iranians are going out of their way to spread disinformation on
         their capabilities.  They want the community to think they are not
         anywhere near HEU. 

         Its a head fake. 

         White House is doing everything possible to block Israels next
         steps.

         Israel will go it alone.

         Israeli subs are off Iran's coast
</description>
    <date>2009-12-11 23:18:38</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-27 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5299649_re-fw-insight-iran-nukes-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5299822</id>
    <title>Re: Fwd: Re: [TACTICAL] Mexico - Retaliation?
</title>
    <description>My guy is probably not the one to talk to--he's too low on the food
chain and frankly, he doesn't really understand security, so they've
changed his focus to be doing strategic planning, etc etc.  His boss,
Greg, might be a good place to start but I don't speak with him too
frequently.   

On 12/17/2009 2:33 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt; Dumb asses
&gt;
&gt; Would your Coke boy buy TrapWire?
&gt;
&gt; Anya Alfano wrote:
&gt;   
&gt;&gt; Yes, that's the message we discussed.  Their execs there have been
&gt;&gt; notorious about not following security recommendations.  Very worrisome. 
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; On 12/17/2009 2:27 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt; Suggest they stay away for awhile until we see who gets killed. 
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Anya Alfano wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Coca-Cola people meet with him and his inner circle frequently. 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Message passed earlier this morning... 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; -------- Original Message --------
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: 	Re: [TACTICAL] Mexico - Retaliation?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Date: 	Thu, 17 Dec 2009 13:24:39 -0600
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; From: 	Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Reply-To: 	Tactical &lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: 	Tactical &lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; None of our clients should visit any senior MX govt official over the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; next few days until we see the fall out. 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Alex Posey wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; BLO would be the most capable in this regard, IMO.  Sinaloa likely has
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; the best operational capability but BLO op capability is almost as
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; good but they have demonstrated before the intent and follow through.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Just like Fred's insight has pointed out, BLO was responsible for the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; IED in MXC as well as a host of other high level assassinations. 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Very  capable and would not be surprised to see an attack on cabinet
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; level security official or higher (Calderon).  Remember they had
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; penetrated calderons security enough to know his travel plans and
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; current location.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Should we do another PI alert for those that do business with Calderon
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; and other GOM officials possibly tied to the security apparatus.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Anya Alfano wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;           
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Going along with Alex's thought here, do we have an assessment of
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; what Beltran Leyva's guys are likely to do in retaliation?  What
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; constraints do they face on this front?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; -------- Original Message --------
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: 	[TACTICAL] This afternoon
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Date: 	Thu, 17 Dec 2009 13:01:49 -0600
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; From: 	Alex Posey &lt;alex.posey@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Reply-To: 	Tactical &lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: 	TACTICAL &lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Have to take Tex to the vet at 1500 to get some shots and
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; prescriptions.  Will have my phone but BB email is down.  Vet is only
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; a block away from my house should the Vatos go after Calderon or
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; someone important.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Alex Posey
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Tactical Analyst
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; STRATFOR
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; alex.posey@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;           
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Alex Posey
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Tactical Analyst
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; STRATFOR
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; alex.posey@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;           
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
</description>
    <date>2009-12-17 23:05:49</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5299822_re-fwd-re-tactical-mexico-retaliation-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5300353</id>
    <title>Family
</title>
    <description>Getting too complicated for SMS. 

I found one noble family named Anderson in the 1800s in southern
England.  I believe the line died out sometime about 100 years ago, but
i haven't been able to prove it--I haven't found family records for two
children (possible infant deaths?).  I haven't found anyone alive with
his surname with any current right of nobility.    
</description>
    <date>2009-12-28 20:50:56</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5300353_family-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5300650</id>
    <title>Bio
</title>
    <description>   This is from 2006

   Ministry snapshot

   Rev. Richard W. Goodrich is District Superintendent of the Tyler District
   of the Texas Annual Conference.  He assumed this position in June of 2004,
   coming from Moody Memorial First in Galveston, Texas. 
   Rev. Goodrich has been a member of the Texas Annual Conference since 1982,
   and has held a number of pastoral assignments in Houston, Longview,
   Nederland, and Seabrook.
   Born in Lake Charles, Louisiana, he has lived all over the United States
   and in Germany. 
   He holds a Master of Theology degree, Summa Cum Laude, from Perkins School
   of Theology at Southern Methodist University in Dallas.  He has taken
   postgraduate work in New Testament Studies and Biomedical Ethics at Rice
   University in Houston where he taught for four years and has taught
   Biblical Studies for 17 years in the Course of Study Program at Perkins
   School of Theology.
   Rev. Goodrich has been actively involved in mission work for the last 20
   years, having worked in Haiti, Costa Rica, Belize, and Russia as well as
   in the United States in Alaska, Oklahoma, Texas, and Kentucky.  He has
   been working since 1994 in Tomsk, Siberia, Russia, where he has helped
   build new orphanage facilities, helped start a United Methodist Church,
   spoken at the universities, and worked with the medical community.
    He and his wife, Christine, who is an elementary school teacher, have
   been married for 33 years.  They have two daughters and one son, and one
   grandchild. 
   Meredith Miles, a graduate of the University of Texas, is married to
   Darren Miles, a CPA with Anadarko Petroleum. Lauren is a graduate student
   at the University of Texas. Carter is a sophomore at Texas A&amp;M in College
   Station majoring in construction science.  Meredith and Darren have been
   ble
</description>
    <date>2009-12-29 17:16:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5300650_bio-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5300997</id>
    <title>Re:
</title>
    <description>   No, the "real" Bryan spells his name with a "Y".  ( But, I just noticed I
   spelled it incorrectly in the other email thread)

   On 1/7/2010 2:04 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     Did she spell Brian's first name wrong?
      
      

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Thursday, January 07, 2010 12:41 PM
     To: Fred Burton; 'scott stewart'; 'korena zucha'
     Subject:

     -------- Original Message --------

          Subject: FW: Lauren's Information                                   
             Date: Mon, 26 Oct 2009 10:42:50 -0500                            
             From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;                          
     Organization: Stratfor Inc.                                              
               To: &lt;korena.zucha@stratfor.com&gt;, "'Anya Alfano'"               
                   &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;, "'scott stewart'"              
                   &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;                               

     FYI

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Monday, October 26, 2009 10:18 AM
     To: Fred Burton
     Subject: Re: Lauren's Information
     no, we don't use house phones.
     Do we need to set one up.... bc that would be easy.

     Fred Burton wrote:

       Are there any phone numbers listed for each residence? 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
       Sent: Monday, October 26, 2009 10:16 AM
       To: Fred Burton
       Subject: Lauren's Information
       Address under Lauren Goodrich
        
       3500 N Capital of Texas Hwy #136
       Austin, Texas 78746
        
        
       Address under L. Andrew Anderson
        
       101 Lakeway Drive #204
       Austin, Texas 78734
        
        
       My Phone is - 281-460-9382
       Andrew's Phone (under a false name of Bryan Baxter) - 512-507-6544
       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       STRATFOR
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     STRATFOR
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-01-07 20:08:38</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5300997_re-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5301273</id>
    <title>Re: Mooney
</title>
    <description>Yes, he had told us about the BBaxter39@gmail.com address.  We didn't
find any other information associated with the account.


On 1/7/2010 3:25 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt; Mooney is going to walk back the cat on the email and phones again, in
&gt; an effort to smoke out any new data.  He recalled a Baxter gmail acct in
&gt; his first sweep, but zero email back to her.
&gt;   
</description>
    <date>2010-01-07 21:28:42</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5301273_re-mooney-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5301400</id>
    <title>List
</title>
    <description>People affiliated with the foundation
http://www.peacefond.ru/en/structure-of-fund/
</description>
    <date>2010-01-08 18:50:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5301400_list-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5301419</id>
    <title>Re: XXX
</title>
    <description>GF said maybe her dad purchased an insurance policy for her.  I said
maybe, but most protestant ministers don't have enough cash to buy
normal health insurance, let alone high value life insurance for their
kids, but more to the point, are we sure her stuff isn't fake. 

She's lied about everything else, it's logical she's lying about the
jewelry and furs being real too. 

On 1/8/2010 5:25 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt; Off PGP, whats the question?   
&gt;
&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt; From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com] 
&gt; Sent: Friday, January 08, 2010 3:50 PM
&gt; To: Fred Burton
&gt; Subject: Fwd: Re: XXX
&gt;
&gt; Last message just asked if we're sure her stuff isn't fake.  Everything else
&gt; has been a lie--why assume the stuff is real? 
&gt;
&gt;   
</description>
    <date>2010-01-08 23:28:42</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5301419_re-xxx-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5301871</id>
    <title>Re: [Fwd: Re: Xxx]
</title>
    <description>I don't see what LG could say without discrediting herself in the
process.  "They hired me, and I'm a complete psycho and I gave you bad
information"....
</description>
    <date>2010-01-20 21:24:25</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5301871_re-fwd-re-xxx-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5303134</id>
    <title>Re: [Fwd: [Whips] My time is up... doc ordered back off comp]
</title>
    <description>   She's been telling everyone that she's been in the hospital this week,
   where they put her on a ventilator for awhile until her fever broke, etc. 

   She's currently sending emails from the Austin residential Road Runner
   internet connection that we believe is her home. 

   On 2/3/2010 6:19 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

     What does she mean by "doc ordered back off comp"? 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Korena Zucha [mailto:zucha@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Wednesday, February 03, 2010 4:29 PM
     To: Fred Burton; scott stewart; 'Alfano Anya'
     Subject: [Fwd: [Whips] My time is up... doc ordered back off comp]

     -------- Original Message --------

      Subject: [Whips] My time is up... doc ordered back off comp             
         Date: Wed, 03 Feb 2010 14:26:10 -0600                                
         From: Lauren Goodrich &lt;goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;                        
     Reply-To: Whips List &lt;whips@stratfor.com&gt;                                
           To: EurAsia AOR &lt;eurasia@stratfor.com&gt;, Whips List                 
               &lt;whips@stratfor.com&gt;                                           

     I'll try to get back on tomorrow.
     Thanks everyone for your help!
     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     Stratfor
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com
     --
     Korena Zucha
     Briefer
     STRATFOR
     Office: 512-744-4082
     Fax: 512-744-4334
     Zucha@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-02-04 00:25:05</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5303134_re-fwd-whips-my-time-is-up-doc-ordered-back-off-comp-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5303426</id>
    <title>Re: more lies
</title>
    <description>I'll put together that stuff also. 

I was trying to come up with criteria for what is work-related--I'm
having issues saying that the lies about the Scotland and Kent visits
were work related.  Should they be included? 

On 2/10/2010 7:35 AM, scott stewart wrote:
&gt; I think we should definitely include the stuff where she mischaracterizes
&gt; Stratfor and her work for us to others. Afghanistan travel, burkah,
&gt; bulletproof vest, saving Nate's life etc.  We could do a separate category
&gt; for that.  
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt; From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
&gt; Sent: Tuesday, February 09, 2010 11:45 PM
&gt; To: Scott Stewart
&gt; Cc: Anya Alfano; 'korena zucha'
&gt; Subject: Re: more lies
&gt;
&gt; Are lies about her work locations work related or considered part of her
&gt; fantasy? 
&gt;
&gt; Just not sure which is what.
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;   
</description>
    <date>2010-02-10 14:54:49</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5303426_re-more-lies-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5303609</id>
    <title>Re: Update
</title>
    <description>   I hesitated adding the part of the confidentiality agreement because
   there's no clear link to BB.  Does this sound correct, without
   overstretching?

   "In the following weeks, Lauren approached an attorney, asking to draw up
   "legal confidentiality contracts", likely to convince Bryan he was playing
   an official role related to STRATFOR. "

   I can add the creation of the email address.

   On 2/10/2010 2:32 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 1) Suggest you add L's efforts to seek out legal advice to create a
 contract for Baxter, who believes he is being recruited for a Stratfor
 position.  Baxter has also been duped but may have retaliation since
 Lauren's actions were outside her scope of duties.

 2) Add the creation of the Nate email address for purposes unknown.


 Anya Alfano wrote:
  

 I made some changes to the document, per Fred's suggestion.  Press
 "CTRL" and click on the hyperlinks at the end of each lie to go to the
 full documentation.  Hopefully that's a little easier to read.  PGP will
 screw up the HTML and links, so I'm sending open.
    
</description>
    <date>2010-02-10 20:51:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5303609_re-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5304809</id>
    <title>India - Train Derailments?
</title>
    <description>   This might be a good trigger for reassessing Indian militancy -- would be
   especially interesting to see who did this one since it's much larger than
   we've seen recently.  No one has claimed responsibility yet and several
   groups have condemned the blasts.  Any other thoughts we have on who did
   it would be much appreciated.

   -------- Original Message --------

    Subject: S3 - INDIA/CT/GV- Death toll from derailed train in India now at 
             60                                                               
       Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2011 23:52:43 -0500 (CDT)                            
       From: Chris Farnham &lt;chris.farnham@stratfor.com&gt;                       
   Reply-To: analysts@stratfor.com                                            
         To: alerts@stratfor.com                                              

   The red please [chris]

   [this news also has the Assam blast story that caused train derailment the
   end. Bad sunday for Indian railways AR)

   Death toll from derailed train in India now at 60
   AP
   http://news.yahoo.com/death-toll-derailed-train-india-now-60-034936343.html

   LUCKNOW, India (AP) - Officials say the death toll from a train derailment
   in northern India has risen to 60 as more bodies are being pulled out of
   the mangled coaches.

   The senior army official in charge of rescue operations at the accident
   site says volunteers and soldiers have pulled out 60 bodies from 12
   coaches of the Kalka Mail, which went off the tracks Sunday afternoon.

   Col. Amarjit Dhillon told the Associated Press on Monday that many more
   bodies were trapped under the twisted coaches and soldiers were using gas
   cutters to slice through the metal.

   Rescue workers working through the night rescued many of the more than 100
   injured in the accident near the town of Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh state.

   THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information.
   AP's earlier story is below.

   FATEHPUR, India (AP) - Rescuers searched for survivors in the wreckage of
   a packed express train that derailed in northern India on Sunday
   afternoon, killing at least 31 people, while officials said a second train
   derailment hundreds of miles (kilometers) to the northeast appeared to
   have been caused by a remote-controlled bomb.

   Rescuers were working to reach the second derailment, which occurred late
   Sunday night in a rural area of Assam state, injuring at least 100. The
   two railway incidents did not appear to be related.

   In the first crash, the Kalka Mail train was on its way to Kalka, in the
   foothills of the Himalayas, from Howrah, a station near Kolkata in eastern
   India, when 12 coaches and the engine jumped the tracks at Malwan station,
   near the town of Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh state, senior railway official
   A.K. Jain said.

   The cause of the derailment was not immediately clear but it appeared that
   the driver applied the emergency brakes, Jain said.

   At least 31 people were killed and rescue workers pulled at least 100
   injured passengers out of the wreckage, said Brij Lal, a state police
   official.

   Hours later, the second train derailed in the northeastern state of Assam,
   injuring at least 100 people, said S.K. Roy, a local magistrate.

   Local police suspect that a remote control-triggered bomb caused four
   coaches of the Gauhati-Puri Express to be thrown off the tracks in the
   town of Rangiya, about 30 miles (50 kilometers) west of the state's
   capital, Gauhati, Roy said.

   S. Hajong, a local railways spokesman, said two of the four coaches
   plunged into a pond and casualties are feared.

   Roy did not blame any rebel group and no one has taken responsibility for
   the attack so far. More than 30 groups in northeastern India have been
   fighting for decades for independence or wide autonomy in the region,
   about 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) east of New Delhi.

   It was the third train accident in India in the last four days. A train
   hit a bus at an unmanned railway crossing last Thursday, killing 35
   people.

   In Fatehpur, the accident site was a pile of twisted metal. At least one
   coach flew above the roof of another ahead of it and was dangling
   precariously, television footage showed. Another coach was thrown away
   from the rest of the train.

   The toll was likely to rise as rescuers made their way through the coaches
   and used gas cutters to cut through the mangled metal, Lal said. Rescue
   efforts continued late into the night.

   "We're trying to cut into the coaches and rescue those still trapped
   inside," Lal said.

   A senior railway official, H.C. Joshi, told CNN-IBN news channel that
   rescuers were struggling to free at least five people pinned under the
   wreckage of one of the worst-damaged coaches.

   Medical personnel rushed to the area, about 75 miles (120 kilometers)
   southeast of Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh state.

   Army helicopters were ferrying the most seriously injured victims to
   hospitals and 30 army engineers had joined the rescue efforts, Lal said.

   TV stations showed local residents helping injured passengers away from
   the train, several in makeshift stretchers, and breaking the windows of
   coaches to help those trapped inside.

   Prime Minister Manmohan Singh expressed "deep sorrow and shock" at the
   loss of lives. The Railways Ministry announced compensation of 500,000
   rupees ($11,000) for the families of those killed in the accident.

   The number of passengers on board the Kalka Mail - named for its past use
   in the postal service - was not known. Express trains normally carry about
   1,000 people and travel at speeds of 60-80 miles (100-130 kilometers) per
   hour.

   India's railroad network is one of the largest in the world and carries
   about 14 million passengers a day. Accidents are common, with most blamed
   on poor maintenance and human error.

   --
   Animesh

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   Australia Mobile: 0423372241
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-11 14:29:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-17 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5304809_india-train-derailments-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mesa@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5305342</id>
    <title>Re: Abraxas Update
</title>
    <description> Yes, I agree--perhaps a good feed of security info would help.

On 9/21/10 2:09 PM, Beth Bronder wrote:
&gt; No, don't ask.  It was just my perception that not a lot of activity was
&gt; happening on that site.
&gt;
&gt; Beth Bronder
&gt; 301-641-1684
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt; From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com] 
&gt; Sent: Tuesday, September 21, 2010 1:37 PM
&gt; To: Beth Bronder
&gt; Subject: Re: Abraxas Update
&gt;
&gt;  I think the TrapWire interface is nice, but I think there aren't many
&gt; reasons for anyone to actually come visit the site on a regular basis. 
&gt; The information (ironically with the exception of our sitrep feed)
&gt; doesn't seem to change very often.  I'm concerned that the sitreps
&gt; people are seeing now are turning people off on the content, rather than
&gt; drawing visitors to the site.  I think we can change that--I'd like to
&gt; give them a feed of information that I'm putting into the new security
&gt; portal that should be a very good match for the information their
&gt; clients are seeking. 
&gt;
&gt; I'm not sure how many visitors they might have, but I would imagine the
&gt; number is fairly small.  I think their service is fairly high dollar
&gt; value, but with a fairly low number of actual clients. I can ask, if it
&gt; would be helpful. 
&gt;
&gt; On 9/21/10 1:28 PM, Beth Bronder wrote:
&gt;&gt; This is perfect, Anya.  Thanks for connecting with them.  This will be a
&gt;&gt; much better representation of our content.  What did you think of
&gt;&gt; TrapWire?  Any idea how many people actually go to the site on a
&gt;&gt; daily/weekly basis???
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Beth Bronder
&gt;&gt; 301-641-1684
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt;&gt; From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com] 
&gt;&gt; Sent: Tuesday, September 21, 2010 11:49 AM
&gt;&gt; To: Beth Bronder
&gt;&gt; Subject: Abraxas Update
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;  Beth,
&gt;&gt; I just finished speaking with Dan at Abraxas--he and one of his
&gt;&gt; marketing people did a WebEx demonstration of their site for me and
&gt;&gt; displayed our content.  I think we can make some changes pretty quickly
&gt;&gt; and I'm working with Kevin on the process for this. 
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; For next steps --
&gt;&gt; 1. I'm talking with Kevin about how we can change the feed of sitreps in
&gt;&gt; the front page box--we're in agreement that we may give them fewer
&gt;&gt; sitreps that are more targeted toward their needs. 
&gt;&gt; 2. I'm going to look through our archives for some more updated pieces
&gt;&gt; that will fit into their resources page.  I'll share those with Dan
&gt;&gt; later this week so that he can choose which would fit best on their
&gt; site.
&gt;&gt; 3. Once Dan has had a chance to view those new pieces and Kevin and I
&gt;&gt; have a better sitrep feed, I'll regroup with Dan to make the changes.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Let me know if there are any other issues you'd like to be addressed on
&gt;&gt; this one.
&gt;&gt; Thanks,
&gt;&gt; Anya
&gt;&gt;
</description>
    <date>2010-09-21 20:35:29</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5305342_re-abraxas-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bbronder@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5305447</id>
    <title>Updated Sales Force Contacts
</title>
    <description>14</description>
    <date>2010-09-21 12:00:35</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5305447_updated-sales-force-contacts-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>amy.fisher@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/171/171512_Sales Force Contacts.xls</path><size>30720</size><md5></md5><sha1>cc20f9b4dff2071901ad702ebf5b2fc1cfcaacb7</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5305788</id>
    <title>Re: TrapWire (TW)
</title>
    <description> We're on it.  I'm also checking to see if they can support video, or if
they only want the text content, per your suggestion. 

On 9/23/10 8:53 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt; The agencies with TW are potentially the single biggest captive audience
&gt; we have that could purchase something from us especially in the govt
&gt; arena.  Do you know how much a Lockheed Martin would pay to have their
&gt; logo/feed into the USSS CP?  MI5?  RCMP?  LAPD CT?  NYPD CT?  Its
&gt; unbelievable access.  Either we handle this one right, or we'll fall
&gt; flat on our faces. 
&gt;
&gt; Anya Alfano wrote:
&gt;&gt;  There are two types of information in there --
&gt;&gt; 1. Sitrep Feeds
&gt;&gt; 2. STRATFOR security series -- including the surveillance series and the
&gt;&gt; attack cycle series. 
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; The Sitrep feeds are current and update every day, they're just not
&gt;&gt; focused enough on security issues.  The security series pieces are
&gt;&gt; older, including the attack cycle one that's from 2006. 
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; I'm working with Kevin to make the sitreps more security focused, and
&gt;&gt; I've got a list of more recent security pieces that they can put onto
&gt;&gt; the site.  That said, Dan was clear that he'd like to keep the attack
&gt;&gt; cycle and surveillance series because they're very relevant, even if
&gt;&gt; they're a few years old.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; On 9/23/10 8:24 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt; What has been feeding in?  How can stuff from 2006 be there? 
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Anya Alfano wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;  Fred,
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; I talked with Dan and Alicia over there a few days ago--they gave me a
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; visual presentation of the website and the sitrep feed.  The sitreps
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; aren't all focused on security at this point, but I've talked with Kevin
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; in our IT department and we think we've found a solution.  I'm planning
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; to feed some security portal content in there with a new specialized
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; query that we're creating for the latest version of the security portal,
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; as long as Kevin says that's really possible. 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; For the "Resources" content, I'm going to provide them with a few
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; additional pieces to choose from that are more recent--then our editors
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; group will reformat so they can host it on their site. 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; We're planning to regroup on this either tomorrow or early next week,
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; depending on their schedule.  Let me know if you have any other thoughts.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Thanks,
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Anya
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On 9/22/10 7:52 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Thank goodness
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; OMG
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; I need to see what we are pushing in.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; ------Original Message------
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; From: Beth Bronder
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Fred Burton
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Korena Zucha
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Anya Alfano
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Scott Stewart
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Rodger Baker
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: George Friedman
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: Darryl O'Connor
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; ReplyTo: Beth Bronder
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: Re: TrapWire (TW)
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent: Sep 22, 2010 6:49 PM
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Fred -
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Anya is already working with someone from Mike's team to fix the content feed (to be security focused) which is something that came up in a meeting I had with Dan Burton from TW last week. We're on it.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Beth
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; ------Original Message------
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; From: Fred Burton
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Beth Bronder
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Korena Zucha
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Anya Alfano
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Scott Stewart
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Rodger Baker
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: George Friedman
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: Darryl O'Connor
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; ReplyTo: Fred Burton
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: TrapWire (TW)
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent: Sep 22, 2010 7:31 PM
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Chatted with Mike M, the TW operator and former CIA crony.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; He said our feed was taking up 25% of the TW screens inside the client command posts and that the feedback they are getting is that the info being pushed in is more geo-pol centered vice tactical-security.  
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; How can we fix?  Who is auditing what is going in the pipe?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Thanks
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent from my Verizon Wireless BlackBerry
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
</description>
    <date>2010-09-23 16:07:46</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5305788_re-trapwire-tw-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5305884</id>
    <title>Re: FW: fyi..
</title>
    <description>   Well seriously, I figured if I was up there I should at least say hello to
   all the other offsiters.  If she'll be there, it probably can't be
   avoided. 

   On 2/18/2010 2:26 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     Killin' me.

      

     From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Thursday, February 18, 2010 2:24 PM
     To: scott stewart
     Cc: 'Fred Burton'; 'korena zucha'
     Subject: Re: FW: fyi..

      

     This is next week?  I'll be in DC next week also--maybe we can hang out.

     On 2/18/2010 2:22 PM, scott stewart wrote:

      

      

     From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Thursday, February 18, 2010 2:18 PM
     To: scott stewart
     Subject: fyi..

      

     Just to let you know (since we were talking planes)...
     Andrew's brother will be flying me to DC in his Gulfstream next week, so
     I didn't have to pay for a flight.... nice to save Strat $$.

     --

     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     Stratfor
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-02-18 20:32:10</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5305884_re-fw-fyi-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5306963</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] MORE (2) - INSIGHT - PERU - PM Resignation,
	Replacement - PE 502
</title>
    <description>   Do we think he'll do it?

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Dec 10, 2011, at 17:38, Paulo Gregoire &lt;paulo.gregoire@stratfor.com&gt;
   wrote:

     That is really interesting and it would mean a significant shift in
     HumalaA's administration.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Allison Fedirka" &lt;allison.fedirka@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Saturday, December 10, 2011 9:00:46 PM
     Subject: [alpha] MORE (2) - INSIGHT - PERU - PM
     Resignation,        Replacement - PE 502

     SOURCE CODE: PE 502
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source in Peru
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Political insider with own consulting firm
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Allison
     In order to have a pact with Keiko, Humala ahs to pardon her father

     Para pactar con KF tiene que indultar a su padre

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Allison Fedirka" &lt;allison.fedirka@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Saturday, December 10, 2011 4:25:02 PM
     Subject: [alpha] MORE - INSIGHT - PERU - PM Resignation, Replacement -
     PE 502

     asked source why Lerner resigned given he at first had so much power. 
     Siomi is a nickname for Lerner

     SOURCE CODE: PE 502
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source in Peru
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Political insider with own consulting firm
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Allison

     GOOGLE
     Lerner was very fragile and Humala, ten days ago, accused Lerner of
     lacking loyalty and the low intelectual capacity of the socialist
     ministers, who were friends of Siomi.  Humala has been negotiating with
     Keiko and Toledo. Yesterday Humala called for and wanted a pardon for
     those that did things in an armed conflict.  Siomi declined to do this
     and Humala asked Lerner to resign.
     The accused lack of loyalty applies to the socialist ministers, old
     friends of Siomi who are admirers of Fidel and extremely awkward. Mocha
     Garcia Naranjo, Roncagliolo, Eguiguren, Susana Baca, Caillaux, etc.
     The President has gotten himself in a lot of trouble due to his loose
     tongue
     ORIGINAL TEXT
     Lerner era muy fragil y Humala le reclamo hace diez dias la falta de
     lealtad y la baja capacidad intelectual de los ministros socialistas
     amigos de Siomi.  Ha estado negociando con Keiko y con Toledo.
     Ayer exigio referendodel indulto.  S se nego y le pidio renuncia
     La falta de lealtad reclamada es la de los ministros socialistas, viejos
     amigos de Siomi pero admiradores de Fidel y sumamente toropes.  Mocha
     Garcia Naranjo, Roncagliolo, Eguiguren, Susana Baca, Caillaux, etc.
     Han metido en muchos lios al Presidente por lengua suelta

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Allison Fedirka" &lt;allison.fedirka@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Alpha List" &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Saturday, December 10, 2011 3:57:25 PM
     Subject: [alpha] HUMINT - PERU - PM Resignation, Replacement - PE 502

     Notes: my buddy here texted me funky message early today about a cabinet
     crisis later this PM.  I didn't sent in as insight (kicking myself now,
     lesson learned and not to be repeated) but did tell Paulo to keep an eye
     out for it just in case source was on to something.  Turns out this time
     he was

     SOURCE CODE: PE 502
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source in Peru
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Political insider with own consulting firm
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Allison

     GOOGLE
     Oscar Valdez is the Premier. One needs to see the new cabinet to see if
     it is allied with Fujimori or trying to recompose its alliance with
     Toledo. With both [parties] negotiations have been occurring since his
     [Humala] return from APEC.
     When the Premier resigns, all ministers are forced to resign. The
     Constitution establishes this obligation of the rest of the cabinet. The
     President has the authority to accept the resignation or not.

     ORIGINAL TEXT
     Oscar Valdez es el Premier.  Hay que ver el nuevo gabinete para ver si
     se alia a Fujimori o trata de recomponer su alianza con Toledo.  Con
     ambos ha estado negociando desde que volvio de APEC.
     Cuando renuncia el Premier, todos los ministros estan obligados a
     renunciar.  La Constitucion establece esa obligacion del resto del
     gabinete.  El Presidente tiene la facultad de aceptar la renuncia o no.

     --
     Allison Fedirka
     South America Correspondent
     STRATFOR
     US Cell: +1.512.496.3466 A| Brazil Cell: +55.11.9343.7752
     www.STRATFOR.com

     --
     Allison Fedirka
     South America Correspondent
     STRATFOR
     US Cell: +1.512.496.3466 A| Brazil Cell: +55.11.9343.7752
     www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-12-11 02:33:14</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5306963_re-alpha-more-2-insight-peru-pm-resignation-replacement-pe.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>hooper@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5308234</id>
    <title>Re: sourcing evaluations on Thurs/Fri
</title>
    <description>41</description>
    <date>2011-08-10 09:16:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5308234_re-sourcing-evaluations-on-thurs-fri-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anya.alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>colibasanu@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>antonia.colibasanu@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/171/171609_Sources.docx</path><size>87207</size><md5></md5><sha1>a453333ba5fc92a65237a73c7a96e7c4b9ca0fc2</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5309160</id>
    <title>Re: FW: [alpha] TASKING - Source Lists
</title>
    <description>I was hoping these would be okay without encryption, since they won't
include names, contact information or anything aside from code and
country/area of interest--I was assuming all of that already goes across
open channels--should it be encrypted anyway?  Jen doesn't have PGP
working on her new machine yet, but hopefully soon.

On 8/31/11 12:24 PM, scott stewart wrote:
&gt; I usually had people send these to me via pgp file or spark/adium, which
&gt; is encrypted.
&gt;
&gt; On 8/31/11 11:36 AM, "Anya Alfano" &lt;Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:
&gt;
&gt;&gt; As part of the ongoing source evaluation process, we're finding that
&gt;&gt; many people on our team have sources in unexpected places. To help plan
&gt;&gt; the evaluations, we need each of you to send a preliminary list of your
&gt;&gt; contacts. This preliminary list doesn't need to be formal or in the new
&gt;&gt; spreadsheet format that Jen sent last week -- this is only a list of the
&gt;&gt; contacts that you have and where they're located to make certain that
&gt;&gt; we're not missing anyone and we can plan the reviews appropriately.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; For your preliminary list, please include:
&gt;&gt; --Source Code, if applicable. Please include all contacts that you'd
&gt;&gt; like to be considered, even if you haven't given the contact a codename.
&gt;&gt; If the contact does not have a codename, indicate that in your list.
&gt;&gt; --Country where the contact is located
&gt;&gt; --Country, region or area of interest (energy, economics, etc) that the
&gt;&gt; contact provides information about, if different than location
&gt;&gt; ***Please note -- this preliminary list does NOT need to include the
&gt;&gt; names of your contacts or any ranking information. This exercise is only
&gt;&gt; meant to ensure that we're aware of all the contacts that need to be
&gt;&gt; evaluated.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Please put your list together in any format that you'd like and send to
&gt;&gt; me and Jen Richmond by COB, Friday September 2. Let me know if there are
&gt;&gt; any questions.
&gt;&gt; Thanks,
&gt;&gt; Anya
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Anya Alfano
&gt;&gt; Briefer
&gt;&gt; STRATFOR
&gt;&gt; P: (703) 622-2888
&gt;&gt; anya.alfano@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;
&gt;
</description>
    <date>2011-08-31 18:41:47</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-01 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5309160_re-fw-alpha-tasking-source-lists-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5315700</id>
    <title>Re: Letter
</title>
    <description>   Haytham:
    
   I have forwarded all of this to the key people at the corporation.
    
   They will be able to figure out what your email address is, or how to
   respond to you in this fashion.  I can't
    
   Also, I have flagged this information to them as an issue of highest
   priority.
    
   Tony

     ----- Original Message -----
     From: bILAl reda
     To: Tony Sullivan
     Sent: Saturday, December 18, 2004 6:40 PM
     Subject: Letter
     Hello Tony
      I knew from very confident sources
      in Syria inside the Ba'th party that the party leadership is planning
     to Islamize the party
      to give the regime some Islamic and popular legitimacy on one hand, and
     to absorb the
      ascendence of the fundamentalist Islamism in Syria on the other hand,
     the vice-president
      Abdul-halim Khadam is leading this process which is very new and in its
     first step of
     planning. This info is very new and secret and this process is similar
     of what Saddam
      Hussein has done after the Gulf war when he brought the Wahabbi Salafi
     groups to Iraq
      to islamize the society in front of the Shi'ism in Iraq and later
     brought Abu Mus'ab
      al-Zarqawi and the Islamist fighters to fight the coalition forces.
     Please let's our
      correspondence be at this email and using my nickname on the bottom.
     All the best,

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     Do you Yahoo!?
     Yahoo! Mail - You care about security. So do we.
</description>
    <date>2004-12-19 00:48:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-15 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5315700_re-letter-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>atsullivan4321@comcast.net</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bilalkinguk@yahoo.co.uk</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5316058</id>
    <title>Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
	CODE
</title>
    <description>   Agree
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: scott stewart &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:59:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List&lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;; Korena Zucha&lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   ReplyTo: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Anya Alfano&lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   I'll bet cash they are connected to the Austin guys busted for the DNC
   plot plus some of the Austin Earth First jabronis. 
   From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 11:51:44 -0600
   To: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Cc: Anya Alfano &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;, Alpha List
   &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Have we seen Deep Green Resistance carry-out acts of violence in the
   past? 

   On 11/16/2011 6:38 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not "radical" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the "Phoenix Commune" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as "stupid, crazy motherfuckers", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, "Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.
</description>
    <date>2011-11-18 21:17:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5316058_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alpha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5320670</id>
    <title>[CT] India - Train Derailments?
</title>
    <description>   This might be a good trigger for reassessing Indian militancy -- would be
   especially interesting to see who did this one since it's much larger than
   we've seen recently.  No one has claimed responsibility yet and several
   groups have condemned the blasts.  Any other thoughts we have on who did
   it would be much appreciated.

   -------- Original Message --------

    Subject: S3 - INDIA/CT/GV- Death toll from derailed train in India now at 
             60                                                               
       Date: Sun, 10 Jul 2011 23:52:43 -0500 (CDT)                            
       From: Chris Farnham &lt;chris.farnham@stratfor.com&gt;                       
   Reply-To: analysts@stratfor.com                                            
         To: alerts@stratfor.com                                              

   The red please [chris]

   [this news also has the Assam blast story that caused train derailment the
   end. Bad sunday for Indian railways AR)

   Death toll from derailed train in India now at 60
   AP
   http://news.yahoo.com/death-toll-derailed-train-india-now-60-034936343.html

   LUCKNOW, India (AP) - Officials say the death toll from a train derailment
   in northern India has risen to 60 as more bodies are being pulled out of
   the mangled coaches.

   The senior army official in charge of rescue operations at the accident
   site says volunteers and soldiers have pulled out 60 bodies from 12
   coaches of the Kalka Mail, which went off the tracks Sunday afternoon.

   Col. Amarjit Dhillon told the Associated Press on Monday that many more
   bodies were trapped under the twisted coaches and soldiers were using gas
   cutters to slice through the metal.

   Rescue workers working through the night rescued many of the more than 100
   injured in the accident near the town of Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh state.

   THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information.
   AP's earlier story is below.

   FATEHPUR, India (AP) - Rescuers searched for survivors in the wreckage of
   a packed express train that derailed in northern India on Sunday
   afternoon, killing at least 31 people, while officials said a second train
   derailment hundreds of miles (kilometers) to the northeast appeared to
   have been caused by a remote-controlled bomb.

   Rescuers were working to reach the second derailment, which occurred late
   Sunday night in a rural area of Assam state, injuring at least 100. The
   two railway incidents did not appear to be related.

   In the first crash, the Kalka Mail train was on its way to Kalka, in the
   foothills of the Himalayas, from Howrah, a station near Kolkata in eastern
   India, when 12 coaches and the engine jumped the tracks at Malwan station,
   near the town of Fatehpur in Uttar Pradesh state, senior railway official
   A.K. Jain said.

   The cause of the derailment was not immediately clear but it appeared that
   the driver applied the emergency brakes, Jain said.

   At least 31 people were killed and rescue workers pulled at least 100
   injured passengers out of the wreckage, said Brij Lal, a state police
   official.

   Hours later, the second train derailed in the northeastern state of Assam,
   injuring at least 100 people, said S.K. Roy, a local magistrate.

   Local police suspect that a remote control-triggered bomb caused four
   coaches of the Gauhati-Puri Express to be thrown off the tracks in the
   town of Rangiya, about 30 miles (50 kilometers) west of the state's
   capital, Gauhati, Roy said.

   S. Hajong, a local railways spokesman, said two of the four coaches
   plunged into a pond and casualties are feared.

   Roy did not blame any rebel group and no one has taken responsibility for
   the attack so far. More than 30 groups in northeastern India have been
   fighting for decades for independence or wide autonomy in the region,
   about 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) east of New Delhi.

   It was the third train accident in India in the last four days. A train
   hit a bus at an unmanned railway crossing last Thursday, killing 35
   people.

   In Fatehpur, the accident site was a pile of twisted metal. At least one
   coach flew above the roof of another ahead of it and was dangling
   precariously, television footage showed. Another coach was thrown away
   from the rest of the train.

   The toll was likely to rise as rescuers made their way through the coaches
   and used gas cutters to cut through the mangled metal, Lal said. Rescue
   efforts continued late into the night.

   "We're trying to cut into the coaches and rescue those still trapped
   inside," Lal said.

   A senior railway official, H.C. Joshi, told CNN-IBN news channel that
   rescuers were struggling to free at least five people pinned under the
   wreckage of one of the worst-damaged coaches.

   Medical personnel rushed to the area, about 75 miles (120 kilometers)
   southeast of Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh state.

   Army helicopters were ferrying the most seriously injured victims to
   hospitals and 30 army engineers had joined the rescue efforts, Lal said.

   TV stations showed local residents helping injured passengers away from
   the train, several in makeshift stretchers, and breaking the windows of
   coaches to help those trapped inside.

   Prime Minister Manmohan Singh expressed "deep sorrow and shock" at the
   loss of lives. The Railways Ministry announced compensation of 500,000
   rupees ($11,000) for the families of those killed in the accident.

   The number of passengers on board the Kalka Mail - named for its past use
   in the postal service - was not known. Express trains normally carry about
   1,000 people and travel at speeds of 60-80 miles (100-130 kilometers) per
   hour.

   India's railroad network is one of the largest in the world and carries
   about 14 million passengers a day. Accidents are common, with most blamed
   on poor maintenance and human error.

   --
   Animesh

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   Australia Mobile: 0423372241
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2011-07-11 14:29:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-17 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5320670_-ct-india-train-derailments-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mesa@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5321612</id>
    <title>Re: Fwd: Re: Missing SAMs
</title>
    <description>   Jack Mattera told me this morning that they're likely to contract with the
   USG for a removal/neutralization contract for the leftover weapons. 
   They're in the running with all of the usual suspects.

   On 10/24/11 4:44 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

     SAM issue --

     Near the Port of Esrata (sp), off to the right, is the primary warehouse
     where the SAMs were/are still located.  He's going to get us still shots
     and grid coordinates.  Maybe we can get a DG shot? 

     Man portable SAM's and Tow SAM's are missing; exact # unk

     The concern is they have already made their way to the Gypo border to be
     used against Israel. 

     -------- Original Message --------

     Subject: Re: Missing SAMs                            
        Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2011 15:38:34 -0400             
        From: James F. Smith &lt;jamie@scginternational.com&gt; 
          To: burton@stratfor.com &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;   

 Call 757-478-7383 to discuss

 Sent from my mobile device

 On Oct 24, 2011, at 19:13, "burton@stratfor.com" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

 &gt; We are getting reports of missing SAMs in Libya...large quantities...Fred
 &gt;
 &gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
 &gt;
</description>
    <date>2011-10-24 22:47:22</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-19 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5321612_re-fwd-re-missing-sams-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5327369</id>
    <title>Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta conflict
	in context
</title>
    <description>     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Sean Noonan" &lt;sean.noonan@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Analyst List" &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 4:45:43 PM
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict        in context

   On 11/1/11 1:11 PM, scott stewart wrote:

      Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta Conflict in Context

     On Oct. 31, the online activist collective Anonymous posted a message to
     the internet  in which it stated that it was continuing with its
     campaign against the Mexican criminal cartels and their
     governmentsupporters despite the inherent danger.

      

     The messageurged inexperienced activists who might not be practicing
     proper online security measures to abstain from participating. It also
     urged individuals associated with Anonymous to not conduct physical
     pamphlet drops, participate in protests, wear or purchase Guy Fawkes
     masks, or use Guy Fawkes imagery in their internet or physical world
     activities.[Is this universally or just in Mexico?  The former points to
     problems with LE cracking down on them, the latter specifically to
     cartel retribution]  Guy Fawkes was British Catholic conspirator who was
     involved in a plot to bomb the British Parliament in 1605, and who has
     become somewhat of an Anarchist icon in the United Kingdom. The British
     celebrate Guy Fawkes Day each year on Nov. 5, and the day has special
     meaning for the anarchists.  

      

     It is not coincidental then, that in their Oct. 6 video, Anonymous set
     Nov. 5 as the deadline for Los Zetas to release the Anonymous associate
     who was allegedly kidnapped in Veracruz by Los Zetas. The Anonymous
     associate was reportedly abducted during an Anonymous leaflet campaign
     called Operation Paperstorm.

      

     The Oct. 31message acknowledged that the operation against Los Zetas,
     dubbed a**# OpCartela** is dangerous and noted that the collective would
     be assembling a hand-picked group of known and trusted associates to
     participate in a special task force to execute the operation.[hahahaha,
     this says something about leadership] It asked supporters to use a
     software widget[WC. is this the correct term?] they had developed in
     order to anonymously pass information pertaining to drug trafficking to
     the task force, which will then distribute it. 

      

     With Nov. 5, approaching, and at least some elements of Anonymous not
     backing down on their threats to Los Zetas, we thought it would be
     useful to provide some context to the present conflict between Anonymous
     and Los Zetas and to also address some of its potential implications.

      

     Context

      

     First it issignificant to understand that the physical? geographic?
     epicenter of this event is Veracruz, which  has been a very busy place
     over the past few months in terms of Mexicoa**s cartel wars. The port
     city also serves as a critical transportation hub for the narcotics
     smuggling activities of the Los Zetas cartel. Because of this, Stratfor
     has identified Veracruz as [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111024-mexican-drug-war-update-polarization-continues
     ] a bellweather city thatwill help determine the trajectory of the Los
     Zetas cartel in the coming months. 

      

     One of the big recent developments in Veracruz was the Sinaloa
     cartela**s push into the Zeta stronghold using the [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110928-mexico-security-memo-zetas-defensive-veracruz
     ] Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), which using the name
     Matazetas (Zeta killers) conducted some high-profile body dumps of over
     50 alleged low-level Zeta operatives on Sept. 20 and 22.  On Oct. 25,
     Mexican Marines arrested Carlos Arturo Pitalua-Carillo, a**El Bam
     Bam,a** who was Los Zetas plaza boss in Veracruz.  This means that in
     Veracruz at the present time, Los Zetas are feeling pressure from both
     the Government of Mexico and the CJNG.

      

     Into this dynamic flow, we had the Anonymous internet collective begin
     to take action in Veracruz in August. In response to what Anonymous saw
     as the state of Veracruz supporting the Los Zetas cartel, they launched
     Operation Paperstorm, in which activists who associated themselves with
     the Anonymous collective distributed leaflets throughout Veracruz
     claiming the state government supports Los Zetas.  They conducted major
     leaflet distributions on Aug. 13, 20, and 29. They also released videos
     to the internet on Aug. 26 and 29, condemning the State of Veracruz.
     (According to the Oct. 6 Anonymous video, Los Zetas allegedly kidnapped
     one of the activists involved in Operation Paperstorm.)

      

     Activities outside of Veracruz have also played a part in setting the
     stage. On Sept. 13, two people were tortured and killed and their bodies
     hung from a pedestrianoverpass in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state.  Signs
     left with the bodies signified that Los Zetas had killed the pair
     because they had posted information pertaining to Los Zetas on blogs
     that specialize in reporting on the Mexican cartels. On Sept 26, the
     body of Marisol Macias Casteneda was found beheaded in a park in Nuevo
     Laredo.   Macias who worked for a local newspaper allegedly posted on
     cartel blogs using the nickname a**Laredo Girl.a** A message found with
     her body noted that she was killed by Los Zetas due to her online
     activities.

      

     Following the death of Laredo Girl, Anonymous claimed responsibility for
     a distributed denial of service (DDOS) attack conducted against the
     official website of the state of Veracruz. Although she was killed by
     Los Zetas in Nuevo Laredo Tamaulipas, Anonymous said their attack on the
     Veracruz state website was because of the death of Laredo Girl. [can you
     attempt to explain why they linked it with veracruz?]

      

     It is also important to recognize that some members of Anonymous [again
     I hate referring to Anonymous as one entity] was also unhappy with the
     State of Veracruz over the decision of the state to prosecute two
     individuals who had posted false kidnapping reports on Twitter on Aug.
     25. The false reports alleged that a group of children had been abducted
     from a Veracruz school and the panic caused by the report allegedly
     resulted in some two dozen traffic accidents as terrified parents rushed
     to the school to check o n their children. The so-called a**twitter
     terroristsa** were initially charged with offenses that could have
     carried a 30-year sentence. Those involved in this campaign from
     Anonymous, which claims absolute freedom of speech on the internet as
     one of its foundational principles, took umbrage with this stiff penalty
     for the Twitter case a** especially because it stood in stark contrast
     with the impunity many cartel figures enjoy in Mexico. 

      

      

     Following the Oct. 6 release of the video in which Anonymous threatened
     Los Zetas if they did not release the kidnapped anonymous activist,
     Stratfor began to focus on the story, and in light of the approaching
     Nov. 5 deadline, decided to publish an, [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111028-mexicos-cartels-draw-online-activists-ire
     ] analysis of the topic, which was released on Oct. 28.  

      

     Following the release of our analysis, the topic has received a great
     deal of media coverage. This publicity has generated a very interesting
     response from Anonymous -- one that emphasizes the fast that it is a
     collective of people and not an organization.  As some
     Anonymousactivists were backing off the issue, erasing online user
     accounts[does this mean accounts of people in support of the attack?],
     suggesting that the operation against Los Zetas had been a hoax and
     claiming that no activist had been kidnapped, other activists suggested
     that the campaign should be suspended. Still other activists became more
     strident and determined in their posts, urging that the campaign
     continue. Since Anonymous is a collective, activists can pick and choose
     which actions they will participate in. that means in his case that
     those activists who want to refrain from the campaign will and those who
     want to participate will continue it.  [i see how this paragraph fits
     into your analysis the way you have it written, but I think it might go
     better at the front.  You could use the 'anonymous discussion' as a
     trigger, explain it's "collective" qualities and then go into the rest
     of the analysis.  This way I feel much less bad about how we refer to
     'anonymous']

      

     This will to continue was manifested[something is off in the previous
     part of the sentence] on Oct. 29, the personal website of Gustavo
     RosarioTorres, the former attorney general of the Mexican state of
     Tobasco was hacked and defaced with a message from Anonymous Mexico
     stating that Rosario was aZeta.  It was also reflected in the tone of
     the Oct. 31 message. Some activists associated with Anonymous clearly
     feel compelled to continue with the campaign due to the outpouring[WC. 
     Did they really get an outpouring? seemed like they got a lot of
     criticism and also support for going against the cartels] of public
     support they received in the wake of the media coverage. According to
     the Oct 31. Video statement: (did we see specific examples of "public
     support" or are we just going off of the youtube statement CLAIMING that
     they got lots of support?)

      

     a**we received many expressions of support and solidarity as well as the
     voices of people crying for help. We must remember that we are on the
     side of the people, and we cannot let down the people, especially in
     critical moments like the one they currently live in.a**

      

     We therefore anticipate that some Anonymous activists will continue the
     campaign. We also believe that Los Zetas will respond.

      

     Revenge of the Sith (Yes Kamran, I agree with Isa that Star Wars is
     better than Star Trek. What's Star Trek?) 

      

     The variouscartel groups in Mexico have long used the internet as a
     place to trumpet their triumphs on the battlefield and to taunt and even
     degrade their enemies. The cartels have posted videos of them torturing,
     executing and beheading members of opposing cartels. They also
     frequently monitor narco blogs and sometimeseven post on them.  As
     demonstrated by the blogger killings in Nuevo Laredo in September, Los
     Zetas appear to possess at least some rudimentary capability to trace
     online activity to people in thephysical world. It is not known if they
     employ their own team of dedicated cyber experts or if they rely on
     sources within the Mexican government a** although the most likely
     answer is probably a little of both.  [what about just old-fashioned
     human intelligence?  Many people discuss blogger identities both online
     and offline, something they could've picked up without network-based
     forensics.  'My brother blogs about...' and on from there.  Or by
     tracing the information the blogger had in the real world, and
     eventually getting back to the blogger]

   Tristan was talking about how the cartels were even kidnapping computer
   science students and forcing them to track anonymous down. Need to check
   with him on specifics though

      

      

     In past Anonymous actions, like the Dec. 2010 attack against Pay Pal
     following the Wikileaks case, governments in the U.S. and the UK have
     arrested numerous individuals associated with Anonymous who allegedly
     participated in the attack. In June 2011, Turkey arrested dozens of
     activists associated with Anonymousactions conducted against the Turkish
     government for its efforts to establish a national internet filtering
     system. [Need something to make a point here, maybe something like:] 
     The reality is that there is no such thing as anonymity, on the internet
     or otherwise.  Any action leaves some trail, whether digitial or
     physical.  In the same way that hackers from Anonymous develop exploits
     to access confidential information, law enforcement agencies and even
     cartels could get around encryption, examine patterns of activity and
     investigate leads that in the end identify a real person behind a
     computer. 

      

     Los Zetas, like the other Mexican cartels, do not take affronts lightly.
     Even if Anonymous is not able to provide information that will damage
     Los Zetas smuggling operations, the very fact that this group has
     decided to challenge Los Zetas publicly will result in some sort of
     response. The big question is: do theypossess the capability to
     effectively trace the organizers of the Anonymousaction against them?

      

     One problem with an entity such as Anonymous is that it is intentionally
     amorphous a** it is also as transnational as the internet, and it would
     not be surprising if many of those chosen to participate in the
     operation against Los Zetas are located outside of Mexico in locations
     such as the U.S. and Europe which are outside the immediate reach of Los
     Zetas.(the US is not out of reach, at least not on the border:
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111005-mexico-security-memo-defining-cross-border-violence)

      

     But the amorphous nature of Anonymous can also cut the other way.  If
     Los Zetas pick up and execute some random patrons from an internet cafe,
     behead them and place Guy Fawkesmasks on their heads, it will be very
     difficult to prove that they were not  associated with  Anonymous.  As
     Anonymous noted in their Oct. 31 video, this is dangerous business.(it
     would certainly be within the cartel's capacity to kill innocents and
     blame anonymous in the attempt to intimidate them into stopping their
     activity)

      

      

     The Big Picture

      

     One thing to watch as the Anonymous operation continues is the way in
     which the Mexican public reacts. Many people in the Mexican middle and
     upper classes have been deeply affected by the criminal cartels and
     theviolence the practice. We talk to many people in Mexico who are
     fearful of being kidnapped. In many communities, especially places like
     Juarez, Torreon, Monterrey and Veracruz, businessmen are being caught in
     a terrible bind. On one hand, they are receiving ever-increasing
     extortion demands from the cartels, while at the same time their
     business revenues are dwindling because people are afraid to go out due
     to the violence associated with those same cartels. This is forcing many
     businessmen[enterprises?] out of business. It is also creating a great
     deal of frustration and resentment.

      

     At the same time, Mexico has become one of the most dangerous countries
     in the world for journalists, and many media organizations practice
     heavy self-censorship to protect themselves. In the wake of the
     September blogger killings some of the narco blogs, like Blog del Narco,
     have also exhibited strong signs of fear inspired self-censorship.  
     This means that the legitimate press is not able to be of any real aid
     to the Mexican people.

      

     Mexican citizens are also frustrated with their government, which is
     well-known for corruption.  This is the sentiment feeding Anonymousa**
     original campaign in Veracruz.  This frustration has lead some people to
     begin to talk about

     vigilante groups to fight the cartels a** though that has been attempted
     before in Mexico and as we saw in the case of [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090714_mexico_la_familia_michoacana_expands_its_attacks
     ] La Familia MichoacA!n, which originally began as such a vigilante
     group, vigilantism frequently does not end well.

      

     This is where Anonymous may fit in. With Mexican citizens unable to rely
     on their government, the media or even armed vigilante groups for
     assistance, they may embrace Anonymous and come to view its form of
     cyber vigilantism as an outlet for their frustration -- and a perceived
     safe way to pass oninformation pertaining to cartel activities.  If this
     occurs, we may see people not just in Veracruz and other Zeta controlled
     areas providing information to Anonymous, but citizens from all over the
     country.

      

     Also, in the same way that cartels leak information togovernments in an
     effort to use them as weapons against their rivals, we could also very
     well see groups such as the Sinaloa cartel provide information on Los
     Zetas to Anonymous. This of course would provide even more reason for
     Los Zetas to strike out against the activist collective.

      

     If the Anonymous information campaign does indeed take off, and if
     Anonymous is attacked by Los Zetas, the activists could resort to
     releasing sensitive information to the U.S. Drug Enforcement
     Administration in an attempt to damage Los Zetas. This would be an
     incredible irony in light of the way Anonymous has viewed itself as an
     opponent of the U.S. government in cases like Wikileaks. (Anonymous has
     made it clear that the value they provide is a safe and private medium
     through which to pass this damning information. Their stated priority is
     to publicize information that people send to them. But, do they have a
     way to protect their sources? They likely don't have much collective
     experience in source handling. I imagine a lot of the details they get
     could put their sources in serious trouble. If I were a semi-smart
     Mexican who knew some super detailed information on the cartels, I would
     think long and hard before handing it over to these guys. This may be a
     separate piece entirely, but I think we need a discussion on source
     handling and how good hackers don't necessarily make good intelligence
     agents.)

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   STRATFOR

   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967

   www.STRATFOR.com
</description>
    <date>2011-11-01 23:42:42</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 00:00:00</releasedate>
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  <doc>
    <id>5328404</id>
    <title>STRATFOR India Country Brief - May 9, 2011
</title>
    <description>                          Basic Political Developments

    

     o Senior Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader Rajnath Singh has been
       arrested while trying to enter Bhatta Parsaul village.

    

     o Congress today hit out at the Uttar Pradesh government saying
       Mayawati's "greed" was responsible for the violence concerning land
       acquisition agitations in Noida.

    

     o Uttar Pradesh Congress Committee has released the list of its state
       executive after an approval of party President Sonia Gandhi.

    

     o Shiv Sena supremo Bal Thackeray today said an electoral alliance with
       Republican Party of India (RPI) will be formed soon.

    

     o The Supreme Court today dubbed as "strange" the Allahabad High Court's
       verdict of three-way division of the disputed Ram Janmabhoomi-Babri
       Masjid site in Ayodhya and stayed its operation.

                            National Economic Trends

    

          Business, Energy or Environmental regulations or discussions

    

     o Bharat Forge Limited through its wholly owned subsidiary 'BF
       Infrastructure Ventures Limited', today entered into a Joint Venture
       with David Brown Systems India (Holdings) Ltd.

    

     o The Tata group had said Tata Motors was "at a very high stage" in
       finalising a production site for its small car Nano at an overseas
       location.

    

     o The Food Ministry has issued export orders for nearly 92,000 tonnes of
       sugar to mills till last week.

    

     o Temasek Holdings has decided to drop its plans to buy private equity
       major TPG Capital's stake in India's largest commercial vehicle
       financing company Shriram Transport Finance.

    

     o Welspun Corp today said it has bagged orders worth Rs 788 crore for
       plates, coating and other line pipe items.

    

     o Foreign luxury cars will turn more expensive in India as global auto
       majors plan to raise prices following an increase in tax on locally
       assembled cars.

    

     o Industry body Assocham today urged government not to levy the proposed
       5 per cent countervailing duty (CVD) on coal would shoot power tariff.

    

     o Aditya Birla today said it has launched an innovative systematic
       accumulation plan to invest in gold.

    

     o The government has decided to conduct an assessment of the impact of
       GDP growth on ecology using Green Accounting System and the process
       will be completed by 2015.

    

     o Etisalat today inked a pact with Indian IT company HCL Technologies to
       cooperate on and explore collaborative opportunities for offering
       information and communication technology (ICT) services to customers.

    

     o FMCG firm Jyothy Laboratories Ltd (JLL) today offered to acquire up to
       20 per cent more stake in Henkel India in an open offer value at
       around Rs 96 crore.

    

     o State-run Power Finance Corporation is exploring opportunities for a
       formal entry into banking services.

    

           Activity in the Oil and Gas sector (including regulatory)

    

     o Reliance Industries today cut natural gas supplies to non-core users
       like refineries and steel plants so that full demand of fertiliser and
       power plants can be met.

    

Militant Activity/Terrorism (Particularly in Bangalore, Mumbai, Noida, Chennai,
                                  Coimbatore)

    

     o Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah on Monday said that the
       state government had received nearly 700 applications from local
       militants in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir who want to renounce violence
       and join the mainstream.

    

     o Madhya Pradesh police have tightened security arrangements following
       an intelligence input that militants may target the two IPL matches to
       be played at Holkar Stadium in Indore next week.

    

     o Maoists ransacked and looted a police constable's house here
       threatening him with dire consequences if he did not leave his job.

    

     o The pro-talk ULFA faction is deliberating on the charter of demands to
       be taken up during its peace talks with the Centre.

    

     o Six persons have been arrested for allegedly providing sim cards to
       militants in Poonch district of Jammu and Kashmir.

    

     o Four tractors were set on fire by CPI (Maoists) today at Sohdag
       village in naxal-hit Palamu district, during the 24-hour Jharkhand
       bandh in protest against the arrest of their three leaders in Bihar
       recently.

    

                              Labor/Social Unrest

    

     o Tension today prevailed in parts of western UP hit by farmers' unrest
       over land acquisition and political leaders were detained preventing
       them from reaching the troubled spots.

    

    

                                   Full Text

                          Basic Political Developments

    

   Greater Noida farmers' protests: BJP leader Rajnath Singh arrested

   http://www.newkerala.com/news/world/fullnews-205332.html

   Noida, May 9 : Senior Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader Rajnath Singh,
   who was on his way to Greater Noida today to meet the protesting farmers,
   has been arrested while trying to enter Bhatta Parsaul village.

    

   "If I were Mayawati (UP chief Minister), I would have resigned by now,"
   Singh said.

    

   "We want the land acquisition act to be debated in Parliament. Till then,
   land should not be acquired forcefully. Parliament should debate this act
   in the Monsoon Session," he added

    

   The BJP is observing a "Black Day" in Uttar Pradesh today in protest
   against a police crackdown on farmers in Bhatta Parsaul village

    

   "A Black Day would be observed at all district headquarters from Greater
   Noida to Agra to protest against the use of brutal force by the state
   government to suppress the agitation and, against its dictatorial approach
   and anti-farmer policies," said state BJP chief Surya Pratap Shahi in a
   statement.

    

   So far, four farmers'''' have died during the protest.

    

   Meanwhile, Uttar Pradesh Police has announced a reward of Rs 50,000 for
   Manvir Singh Tevatia, the leader of the agitation in Greater Noida.
   Authorities have turned the Bhatta Parsaul village into a fortress and
   prohibitory orders under Section 144 CrPC have been clamped in the
   district.

    

   Bhatta Parsaul village turned into a battlefield on Saturday, resulting in
   the death of two Provincial Armed Constabulary personnel and one villager.
   Several others were also injured in the same incident, when a clash broke
   out between farmers and the police.

    

   District Magistrate (DM) Deepak Aggarwal and Gautam Buddh Nagar Senior
   Superintendent of Police (SSP) were grievously injured in the incident on
   Saturday along with scores of others.

    

   The farmers have been agitating since January 2011 demanding higher
   compensation for their lands acquired by the state government.

    

   Their demand is that only half their lands should be acquired, while the
   rest should be handed over to the farmers after development.

    

   They also want 25 percent reservation for farmers in all schemes of Noida,
   Greater Noida and Yamuna Expressway.

    

   The farmers have also been demanding that the authorities should give 120
   square metre plots to landless farmers and a compensation of Rs. 5,00,000
   for each acre of acquired land.

    

   Farmers' unrest in Noida: Cong demands judicial probe

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/1577697_Farmers--unrest-in-Noida--Cong-demands-judicial-probe-

   New Delhi, May 9 (PTI) Congress today hit out at the Uttar Pradesh
   government saying Mayawati's "greed" was responsible for the violence
   concerning land acquisition agitations in Noida and demanded a judicial
   enquiry into the entire episode.

    

   "Mayawati government has been extremely insensitive to the cause of
   farmers and the poor in recent years. Instead of talking to farmers and
   taking them into confidence, it has been taking violent action against the
   agitating farmers. We demand a judicial inquiry into the incident.

    

   "The greed of Mayawati has overtaken her sensible decisions. The whole
   government is up for grabs for those who have money to spend and who have
   capacity to fill the personal coffers of the chief minister," AICC general
   secretary Digvijay Singh told reporters here.

    

   UP Congress declares state executive list

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/1577430_UP-Congress-declares-state-executive-list

   Lucknow, May 9 (PTI) Uttar Pradesh Congress Committee has released the
   list of its state executive after an approval of party President Sonia
   Gandhi, party sources said here today.

    

   There would be six vice-presidents--Surendra Goel, Sayedujama, Virendra
   Nath Pandey, Ranjit Singh Judeo, Vijay Pasi and Ganesh Shankar Pandey,
   they said.

    

   S C Maheshwari has been made the treasurer of the Uttar Pradesh Congress
   Committee (UPCC) besides there are 45 executive members and 16 special
   invitees.

    

   The party would soon appoint general secretaries among the executive
   members, they said.

    

   Shiv Sena to tie up with RPI soon: Bal Thackeray

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/1578059_Shiv-Sena-to-tie-up-with-RPI-soon--Bal-Thackeray

   Mumbai, May 9 (PTI) Shiv Sena supremo Bal Thackeray today said an
   electoral alliance with Republican Party of India (RPI) will be formed
   soon.

    

   He however refrained from announcing the exact date of alliance between
   'Shiv Shakti' and 'Bhim Shakti' (Dalits, who form RPI's support base).

    

   "There is no need to worry about our (Shiv Sena-BJP's) alliance with RPI,
   as it will materialise soon", Thackeray told reporters after meeting Dalit
   leader and former RPI MP Ramdas Athawale at Thackerays' residence
   'Matoshree' in suburban Bandra here.

    

   His son and Sena executive president Uddhav Thackeray, and a few other
   Dalit leaders too were present.

    

   The meeting assumes significance as the high-profile elections to
   BrihanMumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) are just nine months away.

    

   SC stays verdict on Ayodhya title suit, termed it "strange"

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/1577745_SC-stays-verdict-on-Ayodhya-title-suit--termed-it--strange-

   New Delhi, May 9 (PTI) Dubbing as "strange" the Allahabad High Court's
   verdict of three-way division of the disputed Ram Janmabhoomi-Babri Masjid
   site in Ayodhya, the Supreme Court today stayed its operation saying none
   of the parties had demanded partition of the land.

    

   "A new dimension was given by the High Court as the decree of partition
   was not sought by the parties. It was not prayed by anyone. It has to be
   stayed. It's a strange order," a Bench of Justice Aftab Alam and Justice R
   M Lodha observed while staying the September 30 order of the High Court.

    

   It expressed surprise over how the High Court could pass such an order
   when it was not prayed by anyone.

    

   "How can a decree of partition be passed when none of the parties had
   prayed for it. Court has done something on its own. It's strange.

                            National Economic Trends

    

          Business, Energy or Environmental regulations or discussions

    

   Bharat Forge enters into JV with David Brown Systems

   http://www.newkerala.com/news/world/fullnews-205445.html

   Mumbai, May 9 : Bharat Forge Limited, a global leader in manufacturing
   automotive components, through its wholly owned subsidiary 'BF
   Infrastructure Ventures Limited', today entered into a Joint Venture with
   David Brown Systems India (Holdings) Ltd.

    

   The Shareholders Agreement was signed by Mr Jim McColl OBE, Chairman of
   David Brown, and Subodh Tandale, Authorised Signatory and Director, Bharat
   Forge.

    

   David Brown is a global leader in the gearbox and transmissions markets.

    

   The JV Company will serve the Indian Conventional Power, Wind, Rail,
   Cement, Metals, Rubber, Mining, Hydro and Defence.

    

   It will be named 'David Brown Bharat Forge Gear Systems India Limited' and
   will serve the Indian heavy engineering industry, supplying both new build
   gearboxes and comprehensive aftermarket services to high growth, high
   demand sectors including power, mining, defence, wind, rail and steel.

    

   The JV Company intends to set-up two service centres in Bangalore and
   Kolkata by the end of 2011 and additional locations for service centres in
   Delhi and Hyderabad are being planned by the end of 2013.

    

   These service centres will be designed to world class standards, providing
   rapid aftermarket service and support to key industries, a release issued
   by the company said.

    

   Tata Motors starts sending Nano to overseas markets

   http://www.thehindu.com/business/article2003480.ece

   The Tata group had said Tata Motors was "at a very high stage" in
   finalising a production site for its small car Nano at an overseas
   location, which could be either in Latin America, South East Asia or
   Africa.

   Tata Motors has started sending its small car Nano to overseas markets,
   with shipment of 498 units in April this year and a formal announcement of
   starting exports of the `people's car' is expected soon.

    

   According to figures released by Society of Indian Automobile
   Manufacturers (SIAM) today, Tata Motors exported 498 units last month as
   compared to just a single unit in the corresponding month last year.

    

   When contacted, the company, however, declined to share details such as
   which are the countries where Nanos have been despatched in last month.

    

   "We will make an announcement regarding exports of Nano very shortly," a
   Tata Motors spokesperson told PTI.

    

   Without identifying a timeline to share the details, the official further
   said: "For various reasons, we need to send out the cars."

    

   Last month, the Tata group had said Tata Motors was "at a very high stage"
   in finalising a production site for its small car Nano at an overseas
   location, which could be either in Latin America, South East Asia or
   Africa.

    

   "The work is at a very high stage," Tata Industries Managing Director
   Kishor A Chaukar had said when asked about a time-line to produce Nano in
   any of the overseas locations.

    

   He had said that the automobile major was exploring various options at
   different places and looking at uninterrupted supply chain for the
   components.

    

   Tata Motors is looking at various regions such as Latin America, South
   East Asia and Africa. "We are looking at any of these possibilities,"
   Chaukar had said.

    

   Apart from considering land building facilities availability, Tata Motors
   is looking at supply chain availability and at the accessibilities of
   markets.

    

   Besides, the company was exploring possibilities in different neighbouring
   nations such as Nepal.

    

   In June, 2010, Tata Motors' distributor in Nepal, Sipradi Trading Chief
   Executive Officer Shambhu Prasad Dahal had said his company would import
   five Nano cars as a test drive in the first lot by July last year.

    

   He, however, had said the price of Nano could touch NPR 700,000 (about Rs
   4.5 lakh) because of the 300 per cent customs duty in the Himalayan
   Kingdom.

    

   Nano, touted as the world's cheapest car, is now produced at Sanand in
   Gujarat for the Indian market after initially producing at Pantnagar in
   Uttarakhand.

    

   In 2009, Tata Motors unveiled the European version of Nano - Nano Europa -
   at the 79th Geneva Motor Show.

    

   The company was expected to launch the car in Europe by 2011. The version
   in Europe is said to have airbags, central locking and would be Euro V
   emission norms compliant.

    

   Although Tata Motors did not reveal any price tag for the Nano Europa,
   British media had predicted a price of over USD 6,000. The Indian edition
   of the car hit the roads in 2009 for about USD 2,500.

    

   Tata Sons Chairman Ratan Tata had said that the European version of the
   Nano would come with airbags and other high-end features, "but it will
   still be a low-cost car".

    

   Govt issues export release orders for 91,685 tns of sugar

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/1577236_Govt-issues-export-release-orders-for-91-685-tns-of-sugar-

   New Delhi, May 9 (PTI) The Food Ministry has issued export orders for
   nearly 92,000 tonnes of sugar to mills till last week out of the total
   quantity of five lakh tonnes that the government has allowed for outbound
   shipment.

    

   Sugar mills cannot export their produce without a release order from the
   Food Ministry.

    

   On March 22, an Empowered Group of Ministers (EGoM) on Food headed by
   Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee had allowed mills to export 5 lakh
   tonnes of sugar under an Open General Licence (OGL), which do not entail
   any restrictions.

    

   The decision was notified on April 19. Out of five lakh tonnes, 51,500
   tonnes was reserved for neighbouring countries.

    

   The remaining quantity was allocated between the mills on the basis of
   their average production over the last three years.

    

   According to the latest data, the ministry has issued export release
   orders for 91,685.

    

   Temasek Holdings will not buy TPG Stake in Shriram Transport Finance

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/banking/finance/temasek-holdings-will-not-buy-tpg-stake-in-shriram-transport-finance/articleshow/8202728.cms

   MUMBAI: Singapore state investment fund Temasek Holdings has decided to
   drop its plans to buy private equity major TPG Capital's stake in India's
   largest commercial vehicle financing company Shriram Transport Finance ,
   two people familiar with the matter told ET.

    

   "Temasek, after evaluating the company (Shriram Transport), has taken a
   call not to go ahead with the stake buy," said a person with direct
   knowledge of the deal. Shriram Transport and TPG were not available for
   comment.

    

   Temasek's decision comes in the wake of the Reserve Bank of India's move
   to take away priority sector lending status for nonbanking finance
   companies. The removal of priority lending status is likely to increase
   cost of funds for NBFCs and dent net interest margin.

    

   Priority lending enabled NBFCs to get fund from banks at a discount to
   market rates. NBFCs borrowed more than 50% from banks in 2010-11 compared
   with just 14% in 2009-10 . In the past one year, the central bank has
   taken various measures to tighten regulations for NBFCs to bring them at
   par with regular banks.

    

   TPG, which holds 20% stake valued at Rs 3,000 crore in Shriram Transport,
   was in talks with Temasek to offload part of its holding . The PE major is
   also in talks with other sovereign wealth funds, including Government of
   Singapore Investment Corporation to sell its stake in the NBFC.

    

   TPG wants to exit Shriram Transport and invest in other businesses of
   Shriram Group . It is planning to invest Rs 450 crore in Shriram
   Properties. It already owns 49% in Shriram Retail Private Holdings and 28%
   in Shriram City Union Finance.

    

   Welspun bags line pipe orders worth Rs 788 crore

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/1577269_Welspun-bags-line-pipe-orders-worth-Rs-788-crore-

   Mumbai, May 9 (PTI) Welspun Corp, the flagship company of the Welspun
   Group, today said it has bagged orders worth Rs 788 crore for plates,
   coating and other line pipe items.

    

   "With these orders, the current order book of the company stands at Rs
   6,941 crore," the company said in a filing to the Bombay Stock Exchange.

    

   Commenting on the order, Welspun Chairman B K Goenka said, "With the oil
   and gas sector showing signs of revival, the market is looking bullish. We
   are positive that with our technical expertise, coupled with global reach,
   the company will delivery high quality products and services to our
   customer."

    

   Welspun Corporation is among the largest line pipe companies in the world
   and has a manufacturing capacity of 2 million tonnes per annum at Dahej,
   in Gujarat. The company also has manufacturing facilities in the United
   States of America and Saudi Arabia.

    

   Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Land Rover, Renault to raise prices by up to Rs 10
   lakh

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/auto/automobiles/mercedes-bmw-audi-land-rover-renault-to-raise-prices-by-up-to-rs-10-lakh/articleshow/8201765.cms

   NEW DELHI: Car lovers in India, looking for a touch of luxury, will soon
   have to shell out more to drive home their cherished premium
   four-wheelers. Foreign luxury cars will turn more expensive in India as
   global auto majors plan to raise prices following an increase in tax on
   locally assembled cars.

    

   Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Land Rover and Renault will soon raise prices of cars
   assembled in India by up to Rs 10 lakh to pass on the cost increase due to
   higher tax to customers. The Indian government recently raised customs
   duty on foreign luxury cars that are assembled in local facilities to 30%
   from 10%.

    

   "We are looking at increasing prices for one of our major models in the
   next few weeks. We would be paying high tax on one of our cars with a high
   proportion of pre-assembled components. The new policy regulation has
   forced us to bring in new prices soon," said Peter Honegg, chief executive
   officer and managing director, Mercedes Benz India .

    

   The company plans to raise prices of its top-end S class sedan by up to Rs
   Rs 8 lakh. The S class sedan falls in the price range of Rs 84.3 lakh to
   more than 1 crore. The new lot of S class sedans produced in April will
   reach the showrooms in 4-6 weeks and will carry a revised price tag, he
   said. The company is assessing the quantum of price increase keeping in
   mind the higher duty.

    

   Audi, BMW, and Land Rover, will also increase prices of its luxury cars
   assembled in India, company executives said. These cars are in the price
   range of Rs 30-90 lakh.

    

   The increase in tax will hit premium car sales in India, industry experts
   said. Luxury car sales doubled to 15,000 in fiscal 2010-11 from a year
   earlier driven by rising incomes and easy financing. The nominal customs
   duty on luxury cars enabled competitive pricing.

    

   "We are studying the government policy and will take appropriate decisions
   to amend our production strategy suitably," said Michael Pershke, chief
   executive officer, Audi India . The German luxury carmaker's A4 and A6
   sedans and sports utility vehicle Q5 may incur 30% tax.

    

   French carmaker Renault is likely to increase prices of its sedan Fluence
   by up to Rs 2 lakh, a company executive said. Fluence will be launched in
   India later this month from its Chennai facility. "We are also in line
   with the auto industry in the higher tax bracket of 30% that will be
   reflected in our price line," said a company spokesperson.

    

   Land Rover's sports utility vehicle Freelander 2, recently launched in
   India and expected to compete with BMW X1 on pricing, will also come under
   the revised tax structure. The Freelander, assembled at parent company
   Tata Motors's facility in Pune, will cost Rs 3-5 lakh more than the
   originally envisaged price tag.

    

   Proposed 5 pc duty on coal to impact power tariff'

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/1577371_-Proposed-5-pc-duty-on-coal-to-impact-power-tariff-

   New Delhi, May 9 (PTI) Fearing the proposed 5 per cent countervailing duty
   (CVD) on coal would shoot power tariff, industry body Assocham today urged
   government not to levy it.

    

   Nearly two-third of power generation in the country is coal based and any
   such step would lead to an increase in power tariff by 13 paise per unit,
   it said.

    

   "A further imposition of countervailing duty at 5 per cent will not only
   make imported coal-based power plants unviable, but also lead to a steep
   rise in power tariff," Assocham Secretary General D S Rawat said in a
   letter to Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee.

    

   Countervailing duty (CVD), also known as anti-subsidy duty, is an import
   duty imposed to neutralise the negative effects of subsidies. At present
   there is a 5 per cent custom duty on non-coking coal.

    

   Aditya Birla Money launches Gold Harvest scheme

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/1577658_Aditya-Birla-Money-launches-Gold-Harvest-scheme-

   Mumbai, May 9 (PTI) Aditya Birla Money, the broking, distribution and
   wealth management arm of Aditya Birla Financial Services Group, today said
   it has launched an innovative systematic accumulation plan to invest in
   gold.

    

   The Gold Harvest scheme offers investors a way to invest in gold, through
   which they can accumulate 1 kg of the precious metal by paying an initial
   upfront margin of Rs 3 lakh and the balance in monthly payments spread
   over 12 to 36 months, the company said in a release.

    

   "From about Rs 9,000 in 2009 to over Rs 22,000 in 2011, gold prices have
   more than doubled. Gold Harvest is an innovative product to enable
   customers to easily and systematically accumulate 1 kg gold, the company's
   Managing Director Sudhakar Ramasubramanian said.

    

   ICICI only Indian firm on top 100 global brands list

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/1577692_ICICI-only-Indian-firm-on-top-100-global-brands-list-

   New York, May 9 (PTI) Software giant Apple has emerged as the world's most
   valuable brand surpassing search engine major Google, while ICICI Bank is
   the lone Indian company to feature in the list of top 100 global brands.

    

   With a brand value of USD 14.9 billion, India's largest private sector
   lender ICICI Bank is ranked at the 53rd position in the league of world's
   100 most valuable brands compiled by global brands agency Millward Brown.

    

   This is the second straight appearance for ICICI bank in annual BrandZ
   study.

    

   Interestingly, the report said that with a rise of 27 per cent in brand
   value to USD 8.2 billion, India's Infosys was one of the most valuable
   technology brands in the world and is expected to soon rank among the top
   100 most valuable global brands across all sectors.

    

   The iPhone maker's brand is valued at USD 153.

    

   Govt to assess whether economic growth is hurting environment

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/1577837_Govt-to-assess-whether-economic-growth-is-hurting-environment-

   New Delhi, May 9 (PTI) Amid a debate over economic growth verses
   environment, the government has decided to conduct an assessment of the
   impact of GDP growth on ecology using Green Accounting System and the
   process will be completed by 2015.

    

   The government will soon set up of an expert group headed by environmental
   economist Partha Dasgupta to provide a road map for Green National
   Accounting (GNA) system to evaluate impact of economic growth on
   environment by 2015, Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh told reporter here
   today.

    

   The expert group would be set up jointly by the Planning Commission and
   Enviroment Ministry.

    

   The GNA would help government bringing out gross domestic product (GDP)
   growth data co-relating it with impact on the enviroment.

    

   "This expert group will provide a road map for 'green' National
   Accounts...

    

   Etisalat and HCL Technologies sign pact for ICT service

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/hardware/etisalat-and-hcl-technologies-sign-pact-for-ict-service/articleshow/8206000.cms

   DUBAI: UAE-based telecom company Etisalat today inked a pact with Indian
   IT company HCL Technologies to cooperate on and explore collaborative
   opportunities for offering information and communication technology (ICT)
   services to customers.

    

   As per the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), Etisalat and HCL
   Technologies will work together to explore the possibility of
   collaboration on offering joint ICT solutions to business customers in the
   areas of mobility, cloud computing and advanced ICT services.

    

   "Through this intellectual capital-driven association, Etisalat endeavors
   to provide a differentiated user experience to its customers while
   reducing complexity and cost," said Etilsalat's Senior Vice-President,
   Business Solutions, Abdulla Hashim, in a statement.

    

   The collaboration between HCL Technologies and Etisalat comes at a time
   when IT solutions are increasingly taking centre stage in organisational
   business plans to jumpstart growth, enhance productivity and optimise
   efficiency in line with renewed economic growth in the UAE, the statement
   said.

    

   "Given our respective strengths, we will be introducing a range of
   innovative services for enterprises to cement UAE's position as one of the
   most advanced nations in terms of telecom and ICT services in the region,"
   said HCL Technologies President, Asia-Pacific and Middle East Asia,
   Virender Aggarwal.

    

   Jyothy offers to buy 20% more in Henkel India at Rs 41.20/shar

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/cons-products/fmcg/jyothy-offers-to-buy-20-more-in-henkel-india-at-rs-4120/shar/articleshow/8206424.cms

   NEW DELHI: FMCG firm Jyothy Laboratories Ltd (JLL) today offered to
   acquire up to 20 per cent more stake in Henkel India in an open offer
   value at around Rs 96 crore.

    

   The open offer, to acquire up to 2.32 crore shares at Rs 41.20 per share,
   would start on June 24 and end on July 14, the firm said in a public
   announcement.

    

   Last week, Jyothy Laboratories that makes the 'Ujala' fabric wash said it
   would acquire 50.97 per cent stake in Henkel India Ltd (HIL) from
   Germany-based Henkel AG &amp;amp; Co for Rs 118.7 crore.

    

   Last month, JLL had bought 14.9 per cent stake in HIL from the Indian
   promoter Tamilnadu Petroproducts Ltd.

    

   If the 20 per cent open offer is fully subscribed, JLL will own 85.87 per
   cent in Henkel India.

    

   Buoyed by the move, shares of Henkel India jumped by 4.97 per cent to hit
   an upper limit of Rs 36.95 on the BSE.

    

   PFC eyes foray into banking services

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/banking/finance/pfc-eyes-foray-into-banking-services/articleshow/8206338.cms

   CHENNAI: State-run Power Finance Corporation is exploring opportunities
   for a formal entry into banking services, a senior company official said
   today.

    

   "We are exploring opportunities to get into banking (services)", Power
   Finance Corporation Director (Finance) R Nagarajan told reporters here.

    

   The company will be appointing a consultant to study the feasibility of
   foraying into banking services and would decide on a plan based on the
   report.

    

   "We are appointing a consultant to suggest whether we can put equity...,"
   he said.

    

   Also, the company is yet to get "clearances" from the Ministry of Power
   for making equity investments in both private and public sector power
   projects.

    

   "So far we have not made any equity investments. Currently, we are waiting
   for the Ministry of Power for its clearance", he added.

    

   Nagarajan and other company officials were here to announce their FPO to
   raise funds to the tune of Rs 4,700 crore at the upper end of the band and
   Rs 4,400 crore at the lower end of the price band.

    

   The price band is fixed between Rs 193 and Rs 203 per equity share, he
   said.

    

   The FPO, which opens tomorrow and close on May 13, comprises fresh issue
   of 17.21 crore equities.

    

   The government holds about 89 per cent stake in PFC, after divesting 10
   per cent through an initial public offering in March 2007.

    

           Activity in the Oil and Gas sector (including regulatory)

    

   Reliance Industries cuts natural gas supplies to non-core users

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/energy/oil-gas/reliance-industries-cuts-natural-gas-supplies-to-non-core-users/articleshow/8206343.cms

   NEW DELHI: Falling in line with an oil ministry order, Reliance Industries
   today cut natural gas supplies to non-core users like refineries and steel
   plants so that full demand of fertiliser and power plants can be met.

    

   Reliance from 0600 hours today started implementing the ministry's
   priority allocation order which had asked it to first supply natural gas
   from its eastern offshore KG-D6 fields to priority sector like urea-making
   units and power plants.

    

   Supplies to non-core refineries, petrochemical units and sponge iron
   plants will be made only if there are any volumes left after supplies to
   priority sector.

    

   "Reliance this morning curtailed gas supplies to non-core users, including
   its own refineries and petrochemical plant," an industry official said.

    

   The oil ministry directive followed a sharp drop in output at KG-D6
   fields. Production fell from 61.5 million standard cubic meters per day
   achieved in March, 2010 to under 50 mmscmd currently, instead of rising to
   about 69 mmscmd as was projected previously.

    

   When contacted, a Reliance spokesperson did not offer any comments.

    

   Output at KG-D6, the nation's largest gas field, is just enough to meet
   the contracted demand of fertiliser units, power plants, LPG extraction
   units and city gas distribution firms that sell CNG to automobiles and
   piped cooking gas to households.

    

   In face of falling output, Reliance had made a pro-rata cut in supplies of
   all its customers including priority users, the official said.

    

   Of the 57.17 mmscmd of KG-D6 gas for which contracts have been signed,
   9.57 mmscmd has been cornered by steel, petrochemical and refineries
   sector.

    

   Essar Steel has signed up for 3.2 mmscmd, Welspun Maxsteel 0.40 mmscmd and
   Ispat 0.59 mmscmd. Besides, Reliance's petrochemical plant gets 1.17
   mmscmd and a sizeable 4.21 mmscmd goes to refineries including the
   Jamnagar units of Reliance.

    

   "Supplies to non-core users has not dried up completely as Reliance has
   some gas left after meeting priority sector requirement," the official
   said pointing to Essar Steel getting 0.6 mmscmd today against 2.8 mmscmd
   that it was drawing till yesterday.

    

   Reliance had previously resisted implementing the order but fell in line
   once the ministry cited last year's Supreme Court directive that held that
   only government had the right to decide users of the gas.

    

   Welspun Maxsteel and Ispat last week approached the Bombay High Court
   seeking a stay on the ministry order, while Essar has approached the Delhi
   High Court. None of the courts have so far stayed the order.

Militant Activity/Terrorism (Particularly in Bangalore, Mumbai, Noida, Chennai,
                                  Coimbatore)

    

   700 militants want to lay down arms: JK CM

   http://www.rediff.com/news/report/militants-want-to-lay-down-arms-jk-cm/20110509.htm

   May 09, 2011 12:16 IST

   Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah on Monday said that the
   state government had received nearly 700 applications from local militants
   in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir who want to renounce violence and join the
   mainstream.

    

   "The response to the rehabilitation policy (for militants in PoK) has been
   better than expected. We have received 600 to 700 applications," Omar told
   media persons in Srinagar.

    

   Out of the total applications received, 125 have been cleared by
   authorities for the militants to return to the state, he said.

   "The information will be passed to their (militants') families now on how
   they can come back," Omar said.

    

   The Centre had last year approved the rehabilitation policy formed by the
   Omar-led government for return of the youth who had gone for arms training
   to PoK but wanted to renounce violence and return home.

    

   An estimated 1,300 youths from various parts of the state are in PoK and
   most of them have expressed their desire to return.

    

   Intelligence warns of terror threat during IPL matches in Indore

   http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article2003806.ece

   Madhya Pradesh police have tightened security arrangements following an
   intelligence input that militants may target the two IPL matches to be
   played at Holkar Stadium in Indore next week.

    

   "We have got a generalised advisory from Home Ministry that some terror
   group might become active during the IPL matches," said Indore Range's
   Inspector General, Sanjay Rana.

    

   "We are taking all the measures to ensure peaceful conduct of the
   matches," he added.

    

   Mr. Rana, however, denied any terrorist group had threatened to attack
   during the matches so far.

    

   He said the police intelligence wing had swung into action and was
   gathering information.

    

   Around 2,000 policeman, some of them in plain clothes, will man the
   stadium security. Bomb disposal squad and sniffer dogs too will be
   available.

    

   Indore has witnessed some activity of the banned Students Islamic Movement
   of India (SIMI) in the past.

    

   Mr. Rana said the State ATS was keeping an eye on people suspected to have
   links with SIMI and Indian Mujahideen, as well as the members of these two
   organisations in jail.

    

   IPL matches are being played in Madhya Pradesh for the first time. Kochi
   Tuskers will play against Kings XI Punjab on May 13, and Rajasthan Royals
   on May 15 here.

    

   Maoists ransack constable's house in Orissa

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/1577222_Maoists-ransack-constable-s-house-in-Orissa-

   Malkangiri (Orissa), May 9 (PTI) Maoists ransacked and looted a police
   constable's house here threatening him with dire consequences if he did
   not leave his job, police said today.

    

   Over 100 armed ultras, including women, raided the house of Sukra Madhi at
   Gagrimetla village, about 30 km from here, last night and threatened his
   family members with dire consequence unless he quit the police job, they
   said.

    

   "Ask Sukra to quit the job or else leave the village at once", the ultras
   were quoted as saying.

    

   They decamped with all the household belongings, including electronic
   gadgets and food grains. They did not spare even cattle and took away the
   cow, bullocks and goat before razing the house to the ground, Malkangiri
   SP Aniruddha Singh said.

    

   On facing protest by Madhi's wife and others, the ultras thrashed them and
   fled the scene shouting slogans, he said.

    

   ULFA discusses charter of demands for peace talks

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/1577474_ULFA-discusses-charter-of-demands-for-peace-talks-

   Nalbari, May 9 (PTI) The pro-talk ULFA faction, led by Arabinda Rajkhowa,
   is deliberating on the charter of demands to be taken up during its peace
   talks with the Centre.

    

   A closed-door meeting of the outfit's executive body at Helasa in Nalbari
   district since yesterday studied the proposals, handed over to them by
   Sanmilita Jatiya Abhibartan (SJA), a group of intellectuals to facilitate
   talks, a top ULFA leader said today.

    

   The meeting will also discuss issues raised by SJA, reflecting aspirations
   of the Assamese people, before submitting its own charter of demands to
   the Centre, the leader said.

    

   The SJA charter demands constitutional amendments to give Assam greater
   control over their natural resources, revenue generation, participation in
   the planning process, ensuring a secure demographic situation, besides
   accelerated and balanced development.

    

   Six arrested for providing sim cards to militants

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/1577015_Six-arrested-for-providing-sim-cards-to-militants

   Jammu, May 9 (PTI) Six persons, including two brothers, have been arrested
   for allegedly providing sim cards to militants in Poonch district of Jammu
   and Kashmir, police said here today.

    

   Acting on specific inputs that a group of people are working as couriers
   for militants by providing them mobile sim cards, a police team raided
   several places in Surankote and Mendhar areas and arrested six persons
   here yesterday, Sub-Divisional Police Officer, Surankote, Javaid Iqbal
   said.

    

   The arrested persons have been identified as Waqar Ahmed and Pawar Ahmed
   (both brothers), Arshad Ahmed, Imran Ahmed, Khalid Quarishi and Tahir
   Khan.

    

   Maoists torch 4 tractors during Jharkhand bandh

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/1577634_Maoists-torch-4-tractors-during-Jharkhand-bandh

   Medininagar (Jharkhand), May 9 (PTI) Four tractors were set on fire by CPI
   (Maoists) today at Sohdag village in naxal-hit Palamu district, during the
   24-hour Jharkhand bandh in protest against the arrest of their three
   leaders in Bihar recently.

    

   Maoists asked the occupants of the tractors to vacate before setting them
   ablaze, Police Superintendent A T Mathew said.

    

   The tractors were engaged in road construction under Rural development
   scheme of the government.

    

   Meanwhile, security personnel have launched a massive search operation to
   track the culprits and sealed the borders with Aurangabad (Bihar), he
   added.

                              Labor/Social Unrest

    

   Situation in violence-hit areas tense; leaders detained

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/1577030_Situation-in-violence-hit-areas-tense--leaders-detained

   Greater Noida, May 9 (PTI) Tension today prevailed in parts of western UP
   hit by farmers' unrest over land acquisition even as a heavy police
   deployment was made in the affected areas and political leaders were
   detained preventing them from reaching the troubled spots.

    

   BJP leader Rajnath Singh and SP leaders Shivpal Singh Yadav and Mohan
   Singh were detained by police along with their supporters when they tried
   to proceed towards Greater Noida where prohibitory orders have been
   clamped following Saturday's violence.

    

   Terming the Mayawati government as being "anti-farmer", the SP leaders
   alleged that it was buying land at cheaper rates from farmers and selling
   them to private developers at high premiums. They demanded a judicial
   inquiry into the firing incident in Bhatta village in Greater Noida where
   two policemen and two farmers have died.

    
</description>
    <date>2011-05-09 16:35:44</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-11 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5328404_stratfor-india-country-brief-may-9-2011-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>fred.burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Declan_O'Donovan@dell.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>John_McClurg@DELL.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5331111</id>
    <title>FW: Re: UrgentAND POSSIBLY VERY IMPORTANT
</title>
    <description>    
    

     -------------- Forwarded Message: --------------
     From: atsullivan4321@comcast.net
     To: Bilalkinguk &lt;bilalkinguk@yahoo.co.uk&gt;
     Subject: Re: Urgent
     Date: Fri, 24 Dec 2004 18:39:35 +0000
     Dear Bilal:
      
     Do I understand from this that you have specific information as to where
     the individual involved is being held, and by whom?
      
     If that is the case, and the information again checks out, I think you
     will be delighted with your compensation.
      
     Please confirm.
      
     Hussein
      

       -------------- Original message --------------

       &gt; Dear Hussein,
       &gt; The new story is about Ron Arad and this is very
       &gt; important and needs a special exclusive compensation
       &gt; and special arrangements. I send you enclosed a piece
       &gt; explains why it is so important and expensive.
       &gt; Bilal
       &gt; =========
       &gt; *
       &gt; Ten million dollars for information
       &gt; on Ron Arad 7-Dec-2004
       &gt;
       &gt; The Born to Freedom
       &gt; Foundation has launched a 10
       &gt; million dollar
       &gt; campaign to obtain information on
       &gt; missing Israeli Air
       &gt; Force navigator, Captain Ron
       &gt; Arad.
       &gt;
       &gt; The Born to Freedom Foundation
       &gt; on Tuesday, December 7,
       &gt; 2004, launched n exceptional
       &gt; campaign - offering a $10m
       &gt; reward to anyone providing
       &gt; proven and reliable
       &gt; information about the location
       &gt; of Ron Arad and other
       &gt; soldiers missing in action -
       &gt; Zachary Baumel, Yehuda
       &gt; Katz, Zvi Feldman and the
       &gt; missing soldier Guy Hever.
       &gt; Due to no progress and having
       &gt; reached a dead end in all
       &gt; related efforts regarding the
       &gt; fate of Ron Arad, Attorney
       &gt; Eliad Shraga initiated in
       &gt; September 1999 an innovative
       &gt; plan of action, centered on a
       &gt; $10m reward to be awarded
       &gt; to anyone who provides proven
       &gt; information on Ron Arad.
       &gt; He moreover proposed to
       &gt; assemble a special investigation
       &gt; team to analyze and assess all
       &gt; material currently
       &gt; available on the subject. The
       &gt; new initiative was and is
       &gt; based on the premise that
       &gt; several dozen persons
       &gt; throughout the world may know
       &gt; what happened to the
       &gt; captured navigator. Since then
       &gt; and to this very day the
       &gt; foundation has been preparing
       &gt; to put this concept into
       &gt; practice and has carried out
       &gt; extensive activities to
       &gt; promote this objective.
       &gt; It is the first and
       &gt; unprecedented humanitarian campaign
       &gt; of this type in the world,
       &gt; aimed at placing the release
       &gt; of Ron Arad at the top of the
       &gt; public agenda and creating
       &gt; a worldwide effect, says
       &gt; Eliad Shraga, the foundations
       &gt; active vice chairman. We are
       &gt; certain that several dozen
       &gt; people throughout the world
       &gt; are aware of the fate of Ron
       &gt; Arad and the other missing
       &gt; soldiers, and we are all
       &gt; hopeful that a worldwide
       &gt; appeal will reach them and thus
       &gt; help break the deadlock.
       &gt; The foundation is able to
       &gt; receive telephone, facsimile
       &gt; and Internet messages in four
       &gt; principal languages:
       &gt; English, Arabic, Persian and
       &gt; Russian. A website set up
       &gt; to provide information on the
       &gt; foundation -
       &gt; www.10million.org - contains
       &gt; information on Ron Arad and
       &gt; soldiers missing in action
       &gt; from the Sultan Yakub battle:
       &gt; Zachary Baumel, Yehuda Katz,
       &gt; Zvi Feldman, as well as the
       &gt; missing soldier Guy Hever.
       &gt; Who is Ron Arad?
       &gt; On October 16 1986, Israel Air
       &gt; Force navigator Ron Arad
       &gt; bailed out of his plane on a
       &gt; mission in Lebanon and was
       &gt; captured by members of the
       &gt; Iranian-backed Shiite group,
       &gt; Amal. Since then, Ron has been
       &gt; held captive by a various
       &gt; of factions and groups, all of
       &gt; them extremist Shiite
       &gt; groups, backed by Iran.
       &gt; Soon after his capture, there
       &gt; was a series of
       &gt; negotiations for Rons
       &gt; release. The first round broke
       &gt; down in 1988. It is believed
       &gt; that Arad was then sold
       &gt; by Amal security chief Mustafa
       &gt; Dirani to other Iranian
       &gt; backed forces in Lebanon.
       &gt; Since then, contradictory
       &gt; reports abound. By May 1988 he
       &gt; had disappeared
       &gt; completly.
       &gt; Israeli intelligence also
       &gt; believes Arad is being held in
       &gt; Iran or Lebanon by Iranian
       &gt; backed forces. The Iranians
       &gt; have never publicly admitted
       &gt; to holding Ron or to having
       &gt; any information regarding his
       &gt; condition or location.
       &gt; More than 18 years have passed
       &gt; since Ron Arad was forced
       &gt; to eject from his plane over
       &gt; Lebanon on October 16,
       &gt; 1986. In spite of all the
       &gt; efforts invested and being
       &gt; made by the State of Israel,
       &gt; assisted by several
       &gt; friendly states, we have not
       &gt; yet been able to determine
       &gt; what happened to Ron Arad
       &gt; since his last letter dated
       &gt; September 1987.
       &gt; This unique case of a soldier
       &gt; captured and then
       &gt; disappearing without a trace
       &gt; is unprecedented in our
       &gt; history:
       &gt; In his first year of
       &gt; captivity, letters and photographs
       &gt; of Ron were received
       &gt; indicating that he was alive. In
       &gt; May 1988, he disappeared
       &gt; without a trace and we know
       &gt; nothing of his fate since
       &gt; then. In June, 2002 the
       &gt; Minister of Defense appointed
       &gt; a committee headed by
       &gt; former Justice Eliyahu
       &gt; Vinograd, charging it with
       &gt; examining all information
       &gt; available to Israel regarding
       &gt; the fate of Ron Arad. The
       &gt; Vinograd Committee published
       &gt; its conclusions in August
       &gt; 2003, stating that the
       &gt; assumption that Ron Arad is
       &gt; alive and held in captivity
       &gt; is still in force.
       &gt; Conclusions of the Vinograd
       &gt; Committee substantiated and
       &gt; reinforced the action program
       &gt; for which the Born to
       &gt; Freedom Foundation was
       &gt; launched.
       &gt;
       &gt;
       &gt;
       &gt;
       &gt;
       &gt;
       &gt; ___________________________________________________________
       &gt; ALL-NEW Yahoo! Messenger - all new features - even more fun!
       &gt; http://uk.messenger.yahoo.com
</description>
    <date>2004-12-24 19:41:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-15 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5331111_fw-re-urgentand-possibly-very-important-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>harshey@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>atsullivan4321@comcast.net</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5331882</id>
    <title>Fwd: Got a moment? Syria 757 478 7383  (post, I think)
</title>
    <description>   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walid_Phares

   http://myrick.house.gov/

   ** Source and Dr. Walid Phares are getting air cover from Congresswoman
   Myrick to engage Syrian opposition in Turkey (non-MB and non-Qatari) on a
   fact finding mission for Congress. 

   ** The true mission is how they can help in regime change. 

   ** Source intends to offer his services to help protect the opposition
   members, like he had underway in Libya. 

   ** Source says Booze, Hamilton is also working w/the Agency on a similar
   request. 

   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: Got a moment? Syria 757 478 7383          
      Date: Tue, 13 Dec 2011 14:59:26 -0500           
      From: JFS &lt;jsmith@graytm.com&gt;                   
        To: burton@stratfor.com &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt; 

 JS Sent from mobile device
</description>
    <date>2011-12-13 21:19:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-19 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5331882_fwd-got-a-moment-syria-757-478-7383-post-i-think-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anya.alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5332746</id>
    <title>Re: [Analytical &amp; Intelligence Comments] Previous article on personal
 safety overseas &amp; possible recommendations for information
</title>
    <description>   I think he might be talking about this video --
   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110315-above-tearline-emergency-evacuation-plans

   On 9/14/11 8:50 AM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     Anyone remember any piece along those lines?

     On 9/13/11 4:42 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

       I can follow up with him. Did we ever recommend a company for evac
       plans in any of our analyses though? The only plug I remember us doing
       recently was Trapwire for countersurveillance.

       On 9/13/11 4:27 PM, scott stewart wrote:

         Yeah, we're avoiding those things. 
         From: Nate Hughes &lt;nate.hughes@stratfor.com&gt;
         Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2011 16:24:51 -0500
         To: scott stewart &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;, 'korena zucha'
         &lt;korena.zucha@stratfor.com&gt;, Anya Alfano &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
         Subject: Fwd: [Analytical &amp; Intelligence Comments] Previous article
         on personal safety overseas &amp; possible recommendations for
         information
         if he's looking to hire Kroll, might be a fairly lucrative easy
         custom job. Don't know if we're doing that anymore...

         -------- Original Message --------

          Subject: [Analytical &amp; Intelligence Comments] Previous article on   
                   personal safety overseas &amp; possible recommendations for    
                   information                                                
             Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2011 16:02:39 -0500 (CDT)                      
             From: abw@waggonerranch.com                                      
         Reply-To: Responses List &lt;responses@stratfor.com&gt;, Analyst List      
                   &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;                                    
               To: responses@stratfor.com                                     

 abw3 sent a message using the contact form at 
 https://www.stratfor.com/contact.

 I am a subscriber and remember a recent article about contacting a particular 
 firm with regards to evacuation plans from foreign countries prior to issues 
 arising.
 Would you mind helping me find that article and/or firm mentioned in the 
 article. Actually I have a daughter who wants, of all things, to take a job 
 as an Au Pair in Vienna Austria. I would like to have a plan for her in case 
 of an emergency. I would also like to find out something about the family she 
 is going to work for. Would you, or could you, recommend someone like Kroll 
 for a quick background check?
 A reply to abw@waggonerranch.com would be greatly appreciated.

 Thanks for your help,
 A.B. "Buck" Wharton
 Vernon Texas





 Source: http://www.stratfor.com/frontpage
</description>
    <date>2011-09-14 14:53:12</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5332746_re-analytical-and-intelligence-comments-previous-article-on.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>nate.hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5334702</id>
    <title>Research Request
</title>
    <description>   Hi Ben,
   As we discussed, I'd like to put a really good research-oriented intern on
   the case to find the following information.

   - How many PETA supporters are there in Canada?
   -- How many of these are inclined toward activism?
   -- To what extent is PETA in Canada linked to PETA in the US or elsewhere?
   --What sort of attacks has PETA carried out in Canada?
   -- To what extent could non-PETA hangers-on (such as anarchists or ALF
   supporters) get involved in any protest activity?

   To put some context onto this request, our client is looking forward
   toward the 2010 Olympics in Vancouver and is somewhat concerned that PETA
   affiliates might be interested in carry out direct action against Olympic
   sponsors and events during that time frame.  Any information we can give
   them regarding their activities and what might be expected if the
   organization chooses to participate in direct actions would be very
   helpful to their planning. 

   Please let me know if there are any questions.  I need all the information
   our talented interns can dig up by COB tomorrow, Wednesday, June 3. 
   Thanks,
   Anya
</description>
    <date>2009-06-02 21:10:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5334702_research-request-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ben.west@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5337902</id>
    <title>Re: From G
</title>
    <description>   Sounds good.

   On 12/29/2009 4:28 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     I thought we'd let Fred continue to interface with Mooney.
      
      

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Tuesday, December 29, 2009 4:22 PM
     To: scott stewart
     Cc: burton@stratrfor.com; korena.zucha@stratfor.com
     Subject: Re: From G
     A few thoughts below.  Did you want to talk with Mooney about the IT
     questions, or can we help you with that?

     On 12/29/2009 4:17 PM, scott stewart wrote:

        
       Thanks.  Thank the team.
        
       1:  Why would she be calling her own cell phone?  Checking voice
       mail?  Do we have the length of the conversations.

     We can check with Mooney for length of the conversations.  My first
     thought was that she was using her desk phone and making calls,
     pretending to be talking to sources.  She would need an actual number to
     dial while she's talking to make it look real. 

       2: I do need to see the emails she sent to Eurasia group and other
       think tanks.  This is one place where our reputation could be effected
       and I need to see those.

     Another Mooney question.

       3: Is there an Anderson Shipping in the UK?  This implies that there
       is.

     Yes, we found a company in the UK named Anderson Shipping and Haulage,
     better known as Fresh Catch--mostly involved in fish and seafood
     shipping. 
     http://www.thefoodworld.com/company/anderson-shipping-haulage

        
        
       Scott Stewart
       STRATFOR
       Office: 814 967 4046
       Cell: 814 573 8297
       scott.stewart@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com
        
</description>
    <date>2009-12-29 22:34:49</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5337902_re-from-g-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5337914</id>
    <title>Re: [Fwd: Re: follow up]
</title>
    <description>I'm actually a little surprised that gf doesn't have every inch of the
interior covered by surveillance cameras.... 

On 12/30/2009 12:27 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt; Can't remember any other cameras.
&gt;
&gt; Anya Alfano wrote:
&gt;   
&gt;&gt; Do you think there are better pics of him out there?  Was anyone else at
&gt;&gt; the party taking pictures?
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; On 12/30/2009 12:23 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt; Not yet
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Anya Alfano wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Any word on the pictures of BB?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On 12/30/2009 12:21 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
</description>
    <date>2009-12-30 18:31:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5337914_re-fwd-re-follow-up-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5338302</id>
    <title>RE: FARC
</title>
    <description>   I've heard about this dissident group myself, and just published a piece
   today to touch on the subject - www.pinr.com

    

   The speculation about military setting up bombs is accurate. Re: the bombs
   in July, there's little doubt it was military intelligence. Re: the bombs
   on 19 Oct. and early Nov. we're still not certain. There are links between
   the two incidents, as "R-1" was used. Again see my piece on PINR.

    

   Re: his third paragraph, keep in mind the rapid built up of the military
   in 2002-2004 meant less screening. Alfredo Rangel has made the argument
   (repeatedly) that this lack of screening will make it easier to corrupt,
   but that's the rank and file. Higher level commanders are believed to have
   connections with leaders of the baby cartels. Senator Arenas will present
   proof to the Colombian supreme court this week.

    

   I don't know when you received this intel, but it's information that's
   been out there for weeks - the most recent stuff I've seen is in my PINR
   piece.

    

   Journalist | Writer

   Rio de Janeiro

   +55 (21) 3521-8565

   +1 (202) 470-0148

   www.samuellogan.com

    

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Anya Alfano [mailto:alfano@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, November 09, 2006 5:15 PM
   To: reportagem@samuellogan.com
   Subject: FARC

    

   Hey Sam,

   I thought you might be interested in the info below--comes from one of our
   sources in the region.  Let me know what you think.

   Best, 

   Anya 
    

    

    

   I've heard a lot of strong rumor on the potential existence of a dissident
   group within the military - nothing specific to back it up, but an old
   class mate (Colombian expat with dad who was in the military) confirms
   that the military is relatively divided on the FARC negotiation issue and
   that there is a lot of negativity among smaller military circles against
   any type of FARC negotiations. They see it as `negotiating with
   terrorists' and that the response should be to get rid of FARC, not chat
   with it. But given that FARC controls HUGE amounts of territory in
   Colombia, is allowed to operate within Venezuela with Chavez's unspoken
   approval, and is likely functioning well in Ecuador and Peru - it seems
   unlikely that the Colombian government is really able to do much to them
   in any significant way.

    

   There is also a lot of speculation that the military has set up bombs,
   blames them on FARC, then diffuses them and saves the day.  These military
   "rescues" seem to come timed with advances in the FARC-government
   negotiations. This follows along with the theory of a dissident group
   within the military that isn't so keen on FARC getting any comfort from
   the Colombian government.

    

   Keep in mind - much of the Colombian military and police are just as
   caught up in drug trade/trafficking as FARC is - so we aren't talking
   about noble soldiers, even if Uribe does say they are. Also, the common
   link of the drug trade could mean that this is a military drug traders vs.
   FARC drug traders battle.

    

   Uribe has been facing some drops in his popularity ratings - likely due to
   the fact that he's vowed to settle the FARC issue and instead, things are
   getting worse - more attacks (like on the police station), no freed
   hostages, etc. The fact that Colombia has essentially kept this to a
   political campaign - not an active incursion into FARC territory or
   forcible capture of FARC combatants - according to my friend, some of the
   talk in Colombia is that this offers proof that a lot of the recent
   bombings weren't FARC and were actually done by the military - which, I
   guess, could explain why Colombia hasn't actively done much lately to lay
   down the law on FARC.

    
</description>
    <date>2006-11-09 22:23:21</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-14 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5338302_re-farc-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reportagem@samuellogan.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5338303</id>
    <title>Fwd: Insight - CIA Source on Iran
</title>
    <description>   -------- Original Message --------

        Subject: Insight - CIA Source on Iran           
           Date: Tue, 22 Dec 2009 22:05:52 -0600        
           From: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;      
       Reply-To: Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;   
   Organization: Stratfor Inc.                          
             To: 'Analyst List' &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt; 

   From a CIA source (pls protect the CIA as the source): 
    
    
   Uncle xxx, Will Israel or the U.S. strike Iran in the near future?   
    
   ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    
   Fred,
    
   I don't think they will in the near future, not because they don't want
   to, but because Obama doesn't want them to.  Israel has pushed back the
   date that Iran will have nukes, which takes some of the pressure off.  I
   also don't think Netanyahu wants to challenge Obama this early in their
   relationship.  He was just here, and I'm sure they talked about it, and I
   can't imagine Obama gave him even the hint of a green light.  I don't
   think Obama would be very pleased with Netanyahu jumping the gun on him. 
   Obama's Nobel speech was very pointed about using force when threatened,
   so he has credibility when it comes to using it, but he obviously doesn't
   feel it's the right time for anything but sanctions.  He's a very patient
   man.
    
   it seems to me that attacking Iran is a big leap up for the Israeli Air
   Force too.  It's a long flight over countries that won't look the other
   way on overflights, and they have only one shot to get it right.  They
   can't do shock and awe for sustained periods like we can do.  The Iranians
   may be a little better at defense too than the Syrians because they may
   know the Israelis are coming.  I don't how they would practice for it.
    
</description>
    <date>2010-01-05 18:47:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5338303_fwd-insight-cia-source-on-iran-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>sttest@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5338716</id>
    <title>Re: from reva
</title>
    <description>No Accurint shows no results for Ella or Elizabeth Comyn anywhere in the
US.  Also no Facebook or myspace results. 

The email address doesn't seem to have any immediate internet hits either.

On 1/11/2010 9:50 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt; And Ella Comyn doesn't exist, correct?
&gt;
&gt; Korena Zucha wrote:
&gt;   
&gt;&gt; I've seen Ella written on her Starbucks coffee cups as well.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt; would check out this email address...
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; this is what she claims is her real name
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Begin forwarded message:
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; From: Elizabeth Comyn &lt;ellacomyn@yahoo.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Date: January 11, 2010 12:34:46 AM CST
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: undisclosed recipients: ;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: Greetings my Wedding Party members!
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; My darling Wedding Party,
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; I have been asked by my Wedding Party orchestrators to connect with
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
&gt;&gt;&gt; each member and ask if they would prefer to be contacted by the foresaid
&gt;&gt;&gt; coordinator by email, mail or phone (the latter being the least
&gt;&gt;&gt; desirable)-- in order to coordinate all engagement/wedding arrangements.
&gt;&gt;&gt; Please reply to me with what you prefer. Also reply with what contact
&gt;&gt;&gt; information you prefer to have connected through (ie, your address or
&gt;&gt;&gt; email).
&gt;&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; We're sending out some very rustic and preliminary information this week.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Blessed be those that go through this process with Andrew and I,
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Thank you all!
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Ella
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
</description>
    <date>2010-01-11 15:58:29</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5338716_re-from-reva-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5338894</id>
    <title>Re: Q
</title>
    <description>   We should talk in the morning.  From what I can tell, there are about
   three or four groups of friends, and all are getting different stories.  A
   few examples --
   --"I'm in Iran or Afghanistan, depending on when you read this". 
   --"
   Personal life is good (I say as I blush). Nate and I have done alot of our
   traveling together, so he is still my one constant."  

   Just more convoluted than I thought, but not many new leads about BB. 

   On 1/12/2010 8:22 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 Wow

 Good work

 What kinda lives?  

 -----Original Message-----
 From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
 Sent: Tuesday, January 12, 2010 7:02 PM
 To: Fred Burton
 Subject: Re: Q

 We can discuss tomorrow.  I figured she didn't have other friends, but she
 does--she's living several different lives, telling each group different
 stuff.  I'm wondering if there's a group beyond BB who's in on the charade?

 On 1/12/2010 7:49 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
  

 Can ask, are we missing a piece of the puzzle?

 -----Original Message-----
 From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
 Sent: Tuesday, January 12, 2010 6:44 PM
 To: Fred Burton
 Subject: Q

 Has R met any of L's non-S4 friends?

  
    

  
</description>
    <date>2010-01-13 07:31:15</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5338894_re-q-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5339195</id>
    <title>Re: note from R re L
</title>
    <description>No, Jen is an attorney in Houston, not a dancer, and not in Paris.  The
bachelorette party is this weekend, not the wedding, but I'm not sure
where.  L specifically asked her to start sending wedding info to her
yahoo account, so I don't see anything new for more than a month.
</description>
    <date>2010-01-18 22:28:52</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5339195_re-note-from-r-re-l-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5345059</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] FW: S-weekly for comments - the challenges of confidential
 informants
</title>
    <description>   Looks good.  A few thoughts below in red.

   scott stewart wrote:

      

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of scott stewart
     Sent: Tuesday, August 18, 2009 3:11 PM
     To: 'Analyst List'
     Subject: S-weekly for comments - the challenges of confidential
     informants

     I hope this makes sense to other people. Please comment heavily.

      

      

      

     The Challenges of Confidential Informants

      

     Police in El Paso, Texas, announced Aug. 11 that they had arrested three
     suspects in the May 15 shooting death of [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090817_mexico_security_memo_aug_17_2009

      ] Jose Daniel Gonzalez Galeana, a Juarez cartel lieutenant who had been
     acting as an informant for the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement
     (ICE) agency - an activity that prompted the Juarez cartel to put out a
     hit on him. Gonzalez was shot multiple times outside his home in an
     upscale El Paso neighborhood.  A fourth suspect was arrested shortly
     after the announcment. Among the suspects arrested in the killing was an
     18-year-old U.S. Army soldier stationed at Fort Bliss, who the other
     suspects said had been hired by one of the leaders of the group to pull
     the trigger. Two other teenagers, a 17 year-old and a 16 year-old have
     also been arrested and charged in the case.

      

     The man who recruited the teenagers, Ruben Rodriguez Dorado, is an
     interesting figure.  After receiving orders from his superiors in the
     Juarez cartel to kill Gonzalez, Rodriguez was able to freely enter the
     US and conduct an extensive effort to locate Gonzalez - he reportedly
     even paid Gonzalez' cell phone bill in an effort to obtain his address.
      Armed with the address, he then conducted extensive surveillance of
     Gonzalez and planned the assassination which was then carried out by the
     young gunmen he had recruited. While the sophistication of Rodriguez'
     investigative and surveillance efforts are impressive the Gonzalez
     hit was not the first time he used them. According to an affidavit filed
     in State court, Rodriguez told investigators that he also located and
     surveilled targets for assassination in Mexico. Perhaps the most
     intriguing aspect of this case is that the entire time Rodriguez was
     plotting the Gonzalez assassination, he too was working as an informant
     for ICE.  Do we know if he or his family was given legal status in the
     US in exchange for being an informant?  Would be good to mention if he
     was an Amcit or not, just for clarity.

      

     While it is unclear at this point if ICE agents played any part in
     assisting Rodriguez to find Gonzalez, at the very least, Rodriguez'
     status as an ICE informant would certainly have been useful in
     camouflaging his nefarious activities. Although Rodriguez was a legal
     permanent resident of the U.S. having friends in ICE would allow him to
     cross back and forth across the border without much scrutiny. or to
     deflect suspicion if he was caught conducting surveillance. 

      

     It is also not clear if Rodriguez' work with ICE was sanctioned by the
     Juarez cartel, or if he was merely playing both ends against the middle.
     However, as STRATFOR has, previously discussed, when one examines the
     reach, scope and sophistication of the Mexican cartels' intelligence
     efforts, the cartels have demonstrated the ability to operate more like
     a foreign intelligence service than a traditional criminal
     organization.  This means that it is highly possible that Rodriguez was
     what we refer to in intelligence parlance as a double agent - someone
     who pretends to spy on an organization but is in fact loyal to that
     organization.

     Whether Rodriguez was a double agent, or was just playing both ends
     against the middle, this case provides a clear example of the problems
     encountered when handling confidential informants - problems that become
     even greater when the informant is associated with a sophisticated and
     well financed organization.

      

     Choir Boys Need Not Apply

      

     While a conridential informant (CI) can be an incredibly valuable source
     of information, even under the best of circumstances, running a CI is a
     delicate operation that poses a wide array of potential problems and
     pitfalls.  The first, most obvious issue is that most people who have
     access to the inner workings of a criminal organization, and therefore
     the most valuable intelligence, are themselves criminals. Quite simply,
     upstanding, honest citizens simply do not normally have access to the
     plans of criminal gangs or understand their organizational hierarchy.
     This means that authorities need to recruit or flip lower level
     criminals in order to work their way up the food chain and go after
     bigger targets. The fact that many CI's are criminals means that not
     only do they frequently come with a heavy load of psychopathic and
     sociopathic baggage, but in order to stay in good standing within their
     organization, they often need to continue to commit illegal acts while
     working for the government.  Not infrequently these illegal acts can
     come back to haunt the agency operating the CI.

      

     CIs can also come with a host of motivations. While some informants are
     motivated by money, or promises to have charges dropped or reduced,
     other informants will provide information to the authorities in order to
     further their own criminal schemes either by using law enforcement as a
     way to take out rival gangs, or even a rival within their own
     organization. Because of these varying motivations, it can be very
     difficult to tell when a CI is fabricating information or when they are
     trying to manipulate the authorities.  In fact, it is not at all
     uncommon for inexperienced or vulnerable handlers to lose control of a
     CI. In extreme cases, it is even possible for a smooth and sophisticated
     CI to end up controlling the person allegedly assigned to handle them,
     rather than the other way around. And this is not just confined to small
     town police departments; there have been instances of FBI and DEA agents
     being manipulated and controlled by their CIs.  Can you give an example
     of what "losing control" of an agent looks like?

      

     At the high end of the threat scale, there is also the possibility that
     informants will be consciously sent to the authorities in order to serve
     as double agents, or that the criminal organization they work for will
     double them back once it is learned that they have decided to begin
     cooperating with the authorities.  

      

     A double agent is particularly useful for the criminal organization
     because they can intentionally feed very specific information to the
     authorities in order to manipulate enforcement activities. For example,
     in the case of the Juarez cartel, they could tip off authorities to a
     small shipment of narcotics in one part of the sector in order to draw
     attention away from a larger shipment moving through another part of the
     sector. Of course the fact that the CI provided accurate information
     pertaining to the smaller shipment also serves to increase his value to
     the authorities.  In the case of a double agent, almost everything he
     provides will usually be accurate -- although this accurate information
     is pretty much calculated to be harmless to the criminal organization
     (though organizations have used double agents to pass on information to
     the authorities that will allow them to take action against rival
     criminal gangs). The outstanding accuracy of the intelligence reported
     will cause the double agent to be trusted more than most regular CIs and
     this makes double agents particularly difficult to uncover - they are
     almost the polar opposite of a fabricator.  

      

     Not Typical Criminals

      

     When considering the
     [link http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20081209_mexican_drug_cartels_government_progress_and_growing_violence ]
      Mexican drug cartels, it is very important to remember that they are
     not typical criminal gangs.  Not only do the cartels have access to
     billions of dollars, and large groups of heavily armed enforcers, but
     many of the cartels have also invested the time and resources necessary
     to develop a highly a sophisticated intelligence apparatus. As you
     mention above, the cartles essentially have intelligence agents, like
     Rodriguez, who are responsible for surveillance activities, in addition
     to paying off officials etc. 

     [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090520_counterintelligence_approach_controlling_cartel_corruption
     ] This intelligence apparatus is perhaps best seen in the realm of
     public corruption. Some of the Mexican cartels have a long history of
     successfully corrupting public officials on both sides of the border.
     Groups like the Beltran Leyva Organization (BLO) have successfully
     recruited scores of intelligence assets and agents of influence at the
     local, state and even federal levels of the Mexican government. They
     even have enjoyed significant success in recruiting agents in elite
     units such as the anti-organized crime unit (SIEDO) of the Office of the
     Mexican Attorney General (PGR). The BLO even [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20081124_mexico_security_memo_nov_24_2008
     ] allegedly recruited Mexico's former drug czar, Noe Ramirez Mandujano,
     who reportedly was receiving $450,000 a month from the organization.
     This recruitment also extends to all levels of the U.S.government.
     Cartels have recruited local, state and federal officials.

     Many of the assassination operations the cartels have launched against
     one another and against [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/mexico_applying_protective_intelligence_lens_cartel_war_violence
     ] senior Mexican officials have also demonstrated the advanced
     intelligence capabilities the Mexican cartels possess.    

     With the money to buy foreign expertise and equipment, the Mexican
     cartels have been able to set up counterintelligence branches which can
     administer polygraph examinations, signals intelligence branches which
     can intercept the authorities' communications and even elaborate (and
     well-funded) units designed to spot and bribe vulnerable public
     officials. In light of this history of intelligence effort, it is quite
     easily within the cartels' skill set to employ double agents.

     Alphabet Soup

      

     While there are a number of Mexican cartels who frequently compete with
     each other over turf, sometimes work together in limited cases, or more
     broadly in formal confederations, the number of cartels is dwarfed by
     the myriad of agencies working against them on the US side of the
     boarder. Between, local, state and federal agencies, there are some 92
     different agencies with some sort of jurisdiction working against the
     cartels in El Paso alone. The agencies include obvious ones such as the
     DEA, Texas Rangers and El Paso police to the less obvious such as
     the IRS, the Amtrak Police and the Army CID on Ft. Bliss.

      

     This jumble of jurisdictions creates a very difficult environment for
     working with CIs. Not only are agencies legitimately concerned about
     protecting the identities of their CIs due to the possibility of
     corruption in other agencies, but there is also the issue of
     competition. Agencies are afraid of other, better funded agencies
     stealing their informants.  If a local police detective has developed a
     very good dope source, the last thing in the world he wants is for the
     ICE or DEA to take control of his source, which will in all likelihood
     mean that he will lose all the information the CI was providing. 
     Likewise, if an ICE agent has developed a good Mexican cartel source,
     the last thing he wants is for the DEA or FBI to take control of the
     source.  

      

     In the human intelligence world, there is a lot of jealousy and
     suspicion.  This not only means that intelligence information is not
     fully shared across agencies, but that agencies are very reluctant to
     run checks on their CIs through other agencies for fear of dilvulging
     their identities. This insulation results in some CIs double or even
     triple dipping, that is, working with other agencies and providing the
     same information in exchange for additional payments. This fragmentation
     also results in the agency running the CI to not be able to learn of
     critical information pertaining to the past (or even current) activities
     of their CI. This also means that in some cases, the agency that
     recruits the CI is simply not in the best position to take full
     advantage of the information provided by the CI, or to protect the CI
     when things turn bad, but competition and institutional rivalries
     prevent the CI from being turned over to a more capable agency.
     Certainly on its face, ICE would not be the best, most logical agency to
     handle a source like Rodriguez, who was a lieutenant in the Juarez
     cartel tasked with conducting assassination  operations -- essentially
     narco terrorism.

      

     Nowhere to Hide

      

     One last thing to consider in the Gonzalez assassination is that it
     highlights the fact that even though targets will seek shelter inside
     the US, Mexican drug cartels will follow them across the border in an
     effort to kill them - [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/mexicos_cartel_wars_threat_beyond_u_s_border ]
     -- something we have discussed for several years now.  Furthermore,
     incidents like the Gonzalez hit will likely cause high-value cartel
     targets to move even deeper into the United States to avoid attack
     and their enemies' brazen and sophisticated assassins will likely
     follow.

      

     Rodriguez' use of teenaged assassins to kill Gonzalez is also in keeping
     with a [link http://www.stratfor.com/mexico_security_memo_july_23_2007 ]
     trend we have seen in Laredo and elsewhere of the cartels recruiting
     young street gang members and training them to be assassins. The young
     gunmen working for [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/mexico_dynamics_gun_trade ] Los Zetas in
     Laredo, Houston, San Antonioand elsewhere have been given the nickname
     "zetitas" (little zetas.) In is not surprising to see the Juarez cartel
     also employing young gunmen. Not only are the young gunmen easily
     influenced, fearless and hungry for money and respect, but the cartels
     believe that the younger offenders are expendable if caught or killed,
     and will also do less time than an adult if they are arrested and
     convicted.

      

     We anticipate that we will continue to see the expansion of cartel
     violence inside the U.S. and that incidents such as the Gonzalez
     assassination will soon seen farther from the southern border.

      

      
     Scott Stewart
     STRATFOR
     Office: 814 967 4046
     Cell: 814 573 8297
     scott.stewart@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com
      
</description>
    <date>2009-08-18 21:37:42</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5345059_re-ct-fw-s-weekly-for-comments-the-challenges-of.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5347241</id>
    <title>Re: TrapWire
</title>
    <description>Fred, do you think it's necessary to strike on this now?  If possible,
I'd like to wait on this until you return, unless you think the
opportunity would be gone by then.  I don't believe Patrick has any
interest in dealing with WM, despite any potential cash involved.

Fred Burton wrote:
&gt; Can you ask Patrick if it Would be helpful to get the TrapWire folks in front of WM?  
&gt;
&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;   
</description>
    <date>2009-10-08 00:48:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5347241_re-trapwire-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burtonfb@att.blackberry.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5353053</id>
    <title>Note
</title>
    <description>I just traced the IP address that LG used this morning--appears she's
using a residential Austin Road Runner connection this morning.  Not
sure if you've already set up plans inside Austin, but she appears to be
there if you're ready.
</description>
    <date>2009-12-27 17:58:37</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5353053_note-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5353229</id>
    <title>Re: Fw: Location update
</title>
    <description>The messages she sent earlier today bounced on a Wayport internet
connection.  Looks like she was at an AT&amp;T Wifi location that was
connected to the Wayport network--I'm not positive, but it appears the
network is based in Austin.  Mooney will probably have a better idea.

On 1/3/2010 8:37 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
&gt; ------Original Message------
&gt; From: Michael D. Mooney
&gt; To: Fred Burton
&gt; Subject: Re: Location update
&gt; Sent: Jan 3, 2010 7:34 PM
&gt;
&gt; I'll put together a dump of loc info in AM. Not near a pc right now.
&gt;
&gt; I'll make sure it shows loc at intervals from dec 31 through tomorrow
&gt;
&gt; Sent from my iPhone
&gt;
&gt; On Jan 3, 2010, at 19:29, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
&gt;
&gt;   
&gt;&gt; Mike, Any sense on our gals location?  Thanks
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;&gt;     
&gt;
&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;   
</description>
    <date>2010-01-04 02:55:25</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5353229_re-fw-location-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5353431</id>
    <title>Re: [Fwd: FYI (not urgent)]
</title>
    <description>Had you seen her after the Christmas party?  Maybe she's embarrassed
that he acted like a dud?

On 1/5/2010 10:42 AM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
&gt; Yes, but doesn't it
&gt;
&gt; ------Original Message------
&gt; From: Anya Alfano
&gt; To: Fred Burton
&gt; Cc: 'korena zucha'
&gt; Subject: Re: [Fwd: FYI (not urgent)]
&gt; Sent: Jan 5, 2010 9:41 AM
&gt;
&gt; Does pz know she's not what she seems?
&gt;
&gt; On 1/5/2010 10:40 AM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
&gt;   
&gt;&gt; Susan believes Reva or Peter has tipped her off. 
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; ------Original Message------
&gt;&gt; From: Anya Alfano
&gt;&gt; To: Fred Burton
&gt;&gt; Cc: 'korena zucha'
&gt;&gt; Subject: Re: [Fwd: FYI (not urgent)]
&gt;&gt; Sent: Jan 5, 2010 9:39 AM
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Is she also avoiding gf?  She may have noticed that he's been asking a
&gt;&gt; lot of questions about where she is. 
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;     
&gt;
&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;   
</description>
    <date>2010-01-05 16:44:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5353431_re-fwd-fyi-not-urgent-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5353871</id>
    <title>Re: question
</title>
    <description>Yes, I'm trying to figure out how to pull up real estate transaction
records so we can get an idea of how much he earned in commission. 

On 1/8/2010 8:04 AM, scott stewart wrote:
&gt; So would real estate in Austin. You could earn that much commission on one
&gt; decent house sale.  
&gt;
&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt; From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com] 
&gt; Sent: Thursday, January 07, 2010 11:11 PM
&gt; To: burton@stratfor.com
&gt; Cc: Scott Stewart; Korena Zucha; 'korena zucha'
&gt; Subject: Re: question
&gt;
&gt; That would be a great way to earn $45k in cash by the time you're 23.
&gt;
&gt; On 1/7/2010 10:24 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
&gt;   
&gt;&gt; Maybe he's a gigalo?
&gt;&gt;  
&gt;&gt; ------Original Message------
&gt;&gt; From: Scott Stewart
&gt;&gt; To: Anya Alfano
&gt;&gt; To: Fred Burton
&gt;&gt; Cc: Korena Zucha
&gt;&gt; Cc: 'korena zucha'
&gt;&gt; Subject: RE: question
&gt;&gt; Sent: Jan 7, 2010 8:46 PM
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; If a woman wanted to call me by another name and have me pretend to be 
&gt;&gt; a British Lord to her friends, she'd have to be a whole lot more 
&gt;&gt; attractive than Lauren.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt;&gt; From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
&gt;&gt; Sent: Thursday, January 07, 2010 5:00 PM
&gt;&gt; To: Fred Burton
&gt;&gt; Cc: zucha@stratfor.com; scott stewart; korena zucha
&gt;&gt; Subject: Re: question
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; I feel like I'm missing something here--I totally understand the idea 
&gt;&gt; that some men don't necessarily think with the brain on top of their 
&gt;&gt; shoulders all the time, but this just seems nuts.  He's letting a girl 
&gt;&gt; call him by some random name, speaking with a British accent, 
&gt;&gt; pretending to be a British lord, and who knows what else--but why? 
&gt;&gt; What is he getting out of it (besides maybe the obvious...)?
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; On 1/7/2010 1:09 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt; Drew w/a British accent
&gt;&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Does R know him as Brian, or Drew?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On 1/7/2010 12:36 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; R advises both L &amp; B are unbelievable poker players.  R thinks they 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; work as a tandem.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Anya Alfano wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;           
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Maybe the guy has roommates to cover the mortgage so he doesn't 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; have any expenses?  Both his cell phone number and his driver's 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; license are registered to the pflugerville home that he owns.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On 1/7/2010 12:04 PM, zucha@stratfor.com wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;           
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; As a note, his accurint report showed that he had a roommate both 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; at the pflugerville home and Duvall apt although the guy's name 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; did not match those for owners of the cars in the driveway.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On Jan 7, 2010, at 10:56 AM, Anya Alfano 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com &lt;mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;&gt; wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;           
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;               
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Yes, the number that LG provided is 512-507-6544.  The number is 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; registered in the name of Brian Baxter at the address of the 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; home he owns.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On 1/7/2010 11:52 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;               
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Do you have Baxter's cell #?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;           
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;               
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                   
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;&gt;     
&gt;   
</description>
    <date>2010-01-08 14:42:38</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5353871_re-question-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5354599</id>
    <title>Re: Docs
</title>
    <description>Let me know if you need any more information on the guy in KZ, or
different info for Dr. L. 

On 1/19/2010 7:31 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt; Got kazak
&gt;
&gt; Need the doctor - open is a-ok 
&gt;
&gt; Thanks  
&gt;
&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt; From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com] 
&gt; Sent: Tuesday, January 19, 2010 5:06 PM
&gt; To: Fred Burton
&gt; Subject: Docs
&gt;
&gt; I've got two documents for you since the file transfer didn't seem to work,
&gt; and I noticed you're having trouble with Korena's PGP now too. 
&gt; I've got:
&gt; 1. Emails with the guy in Kazakhstan
&gt; 2. An overview for the doctor
&gt;
&gt; Do you want me to send them to you open?  Or is there another way I can
&gt; shoot them to you?
&gt; Anya
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;   
</description>
    <date>2010-01-20 19:48:15</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5354599_re-docs-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5354745</id>
    <title>from Romania !!!!!!!
</title>
    <description>   Hello Anya,
   How are you ? I'm ok, I had some problems but now I am ok. I will write
   something that I hope you will find interesting.

  Yesterday, Al-Jazeera TV station had broadcasted a new recording with the
  Romanian journalists kidnapped in Iraq.

  With the help of Marie-Jeanne Ion*s voice, the kidnappers give the authorities
  in Bucharest a four-day ultimatum for retreating the Romanian troops from
  Iraq, otherwise the journalists will be terminated. For the first time, the
  group declines its identity: Muad bin Jebel. This is not one of the terrorist
  groups known by now. The recording shows the three journalists surrounded by
  the terrorists, handcuffed and crying, with a terrified face as well.
  Marie-Jeanne Ion asked the Romanians to go out in the streets and make public
  demonstrations for the retreat of the troops. In the same time, Mohamed Munaf
  is also in the recording, also being gun threatened.

  Yesterday afternoon, Al-Jazeera TV station broadcasted new recordings with the
  Romanian journalists kidnapped in Iraq guarded by terrorists. Mohamed Munaf,
  the Iraqi-American-Romanian citizen, who chaperoned them, was there too.

  According to Al-Jazeera, the terrorist group which has the Romanian
  journalists * Marie-Jeanne Ion, Sorin Miscoci and Ovidiu Ohanesian * has
  requested, in exchange of freeing the three, the retreat of the Romanian
  troops from Iraq in four-days time. Otherwise, the four will be killed, says
  the quoted source. The recordings show the Romanians with their hands tied up.

  A spokesperson of the Al-Jazeera TV station that the person who had spoken was
  Marie-Jeanne Ion, the Prima TV reporter who also spoke in the first video
  recording broadcasted after their kidnapping. The spokesperson stated that the
  journalists were in good condition, but, from the broadcasted images, one
  could not have drawn this conclusion.

  The name of the group that*s holding the three, is Muad Bin Jebel, as
  Al-Jazeera stated. The pan-Arabian TV station, with the headquarters in Qatar
  and satellite broadcasting, is the same TV station that broadcasted images
  with the Romanian journalists in Iraq two days after their disappearance in
  Baghdad.

  After broadcasting the news, Al-Jazeera continued scrolling information
  regarding this claim, saying twice that the retreat of the Romanian troops
  from Iraq is requested. One information says that *the kidnapped journalists
  ask the Romanian Government for the retreat of the troops*, and another says
  that the *group that is holding them gives a four day long ultimatum*. The
  group*s message also says that the Romanian people are asked to go out in the
  streets and make public demonstrations for the retreat of the troops from
  Iraq.

  Al-Jazeera also stated that Mohamed Munaf also appears in the recording and he
  spoke to American President George W. Bush, and asked to do something for his
  freeing. This is the first time when the kidnappers of the Romanian
  journalists make a clear claim.

  Romanian President, Traian Basescu, came back to Romania from Moldova, sooner
  than programmed, because of the appearance of this tape. Basescu hurried back
  from Chisinau, one hour before the other Presidents present at the GUAM
  reunion.

  In the press statement from April 13, without being asked by anyone, President
  Traian Basescu spoke about the presence of the Romanian troops in Iraq. *All I
  can tell you is that the Romanian Army * I have heard this kind of
  speculations, and the Iraqi people know this very well * is keeping peace in
  the places it is, peace for the people in its responsibility region and it is
  an army which is in very good relations to the civilians. The Romanian Army
  didn*t make war, it maintained order, peace and safety for the citizens in its
  responsibility region and will accomplish its mission*, was the message of the
  President which proves to be for the kidnappers.

  However, at that time, say sources close to the negotiators, the kidnappers
  hadn*t made any political claims.

  On March 28, when he visited the Romanian soldiers in Iraq, President Traian
  Basescu stated that Romania doesn*t have a strategy of reducing the number of
  the military troops. It will continue to take part in the missions it took
  part in by now, the ones of reconstruction and stabilization. One day after
  his visit in the operations* theatre, the three journalists and their
  chaperon, Mohamed Munaf, were kidnapped, but it hadn*t been considered to be
  related in any way to Basescu*s presence in the region.

  Few days ago, we contacted the embassy of the Iraqi Republic in Bucharest, in
  order to find some information on the Romanian journalists kidnapped in Iraq.
  Afterwards, the embassy told us it couldn*t make such comments. As a
  conclusion, the interview was about the new internal and external politics of
  Baghdad. Among others, Ambassador Adel Murad said that Ossama ben Laden*s
  network controls Al-Jazeera TV station. *Qatari TV station Al-Jazeera is
  financed by Al-Qaeda. It is the Al-Qaeda press centre. This isn*t
  unbelievable. The Americans are in good relation to Qatar. The greatest USA
  base is in Qatar. The secret relations between them are unknown. Al-Jazeera
  makes public all the terrorist acts. They show innocent people having their
  heads chopped of*, the ambassador of the Iraqi Republic in Bucharest told us.

  The group that says it holds the journalists now is not a known one, say
  sources close to the negotiators, it hadn*t appear by now. This is the first
  time it states its identity, say the same sources. They say that yesterday*s
  political claims are a conclusion of the last days when the group oscillated
  between several economical claims discussed with the negotiators, when they
  tried to obtain from the kidnappers a new proof of the fact the journalists
  were alive, because they didn*t have any information on their condition for
  the last 10 days. The quoted sources confirmed the journalists weren*t in the
  hands of their initial kidnappers. In fact, President Traian Basescu suggested
  this in his statement on April 13, when he said he didn*t want *to comment,or
  to say what was the process they went through* and assured that *this wasn*t
  easy compared to the initial phase*.)

   In the new video tape, the kidnapped journalists are dressed with other
   clothes than the ones in which they were at first, also broadcasted by
   Al-Jazeera. The three are sitting by a wall, with bare feet, handcuffed
   and threatened with two guns. The speaker, Marie-Jeanne Ion is in the
   centre surrounded by Sorin Miscoci and Ovidiu Ohanesian. Miscoci and
   Ohanesian have beards, and Marie-Jeanne, who hasn*t the shawl on her head,
   has her hair tousled and seems to be crying. They are all in much worse
   Physical condition, and Ohanesian seems to be quite indolent. The one that
   seems to be Munaf appears in a separate image, sitting on the floor. He is
   also handcuffed and threatened with two machine guns. He has beard and
   seems frightened.
    
   I hope that this will help you.
   Talk with you soon.
   Paula Nistor
    

   __________________________________________________
   Do You Yahoo!?
   Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around
   http://mail.yahoo.com
</description>
    <date>2005-04-23 10:53:34</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-07 05:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5354745_from-romania-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>harshey@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>paaulan@yahoo.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5354860</id>
    <title>Re: routine
</title>
    <description>I think that insight came from whatever source number was at the top of
the message.  I think she meant it as something the source told her.

On 1/26/2010 11:15 AM, scott stewart wrote:
&gt; We can prove without question that she did not meet Mr. S on Sunday for
&gt; brunch. 
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;   
</description>
    <date>2010-01-26 17:20:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5354860_re-routine-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5355091</id>
    <title>Re: phone logs
</title>
    <description>Not sure, but the phone number is tied to "Remington's Night Club" in
DC.  ????

On 1/28/2010 3:34 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt; what is esta sol?  numerous calls there...
&gt;   
</description>
    <date>2010-01-28 21:38:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5355091_re-phone-logs-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5355211</id>
    <title>Syrian Opposition breakdown
</title>
    <description>   This goes to show how many players there are in the opposition--there
   isn't just one main opposition leader. Several groups and several players
   within those groups too, all highlighted in the attachment. Ashley is
   going a good job of keeping up with all of this.

   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: Re: Syrian Opposition                          
      Date: Wed, 14 Dec 2011 09:57:52 -0600 (CST)          
      From: Ashley Harrison &lt;ashley.harrison@stratfor.com&gt; 
        To: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;              

   Attached is one of my docs on the opposition, it is actually the shortened
   version and is still 14 pages.  I haven't updated it in 1-2 months, but
   much of it still stands.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Korena Zucha" &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Ashley Harrison" &lt;ashley.harrison@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2011 2:47:46 PM
   Subject: Syrian Opposition

   Hey Ashley,

   We've provided an overview of the Syrian opposition in the analysis below
   but do you have any more info on specific leaders within these opposition
   players and main figures beyond Ali Bayanouni? No need to do any special
   research for this at this point. I know you've looked into this so was
   just wondering if you had a list of key players? Whatever is most simple
   works. For example "name--organization/sect/group whatever."

   If not, that's fine, just let me know. Thanks.

   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: Re: syrian opposition                                             
      Date: Tue, 13 Dec 2011 14:30:24 -0600                                   
      From: Korena Zucha &lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;                                 
        To: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;                                 
        CC: 'korena zucha' &lt;korena.zucha@stratfor.com&gt;, Anya Alfano           
            &lt;Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com&gt;                                        

   We provided an overview in an analysis below. Multiple actors that make up
   the opposition.

   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110928-syrian-opposition-perception-and-reality

  Makeup of the Opposition

   There are factions of the opposition that operate both inside Syria and
   outside. The external opposition is highly fractured, composed of people
   who cannot account authoritatively for the reality on the ground.

   The protests on the ground consist primarily of young and middle-aged men,
   though women and children are also present at times. The largest protests
   materialize after Friday prayers, when participants congregate on the
   streets outside mosques. That is not to say protests are relegated solely
   to Fridays; a number of demonstrations have been held on other days of the
   week but on a smaller scale. These protests also consist of men, women and
   children of all ages.

   But the opposition is ideologically diverse. A key element of what is
   considered Syria's traditional opposition - groups that have long been
   opposed to the regime - is the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), which the
   regime has demonized throughout the unrest. In 1976, the Syrian MB began
   an armed insurgency against the Alawite regime, led at the time by al
   Assad's father, Hafez. By 1982 the group was crushed in the notorious Hama
   massacre that allegedly killed some 30,000 civilians. The MB was driven
   underground, and dissenters in other Sunni majority cities, including Jisr
   al-Shughour, were quickly stamped out.

   Today, the Syrian MB remains a key participant in the opposition movement,
   but its capabilities inside Syria are weak. Syrian MB leader Ali Bayanouni
   resides in exile in London, and the Syrian MB outside Syria has become
   increasingly involved in the external opposition movement, participating
   in conferences such as the NCS conference in Istanbul in late August.

   However, the Syrian MB is unable to maintain much influence in Syria due
   to a limited presence inside the country, and it would take a concerted
   effort on the part of the Islamist group to earn the trust and fellowship
   of other Syrians. Since the banning of the Syrian MB in 1980, al Assad's
   regime has been quick to blame the organization for militant attacks as a
   means of instilling fear of the MB among Syrian citizens. Christians,
   Alawites, and even other Muslims are wary of a conservative Sunni group
   gaining political influence in the regime.

   Opposition has also traditionally been found in Syria's mostly Kurdish
   northeast due to the Kurds' long-standing grievances against the regime,
   which has denied the group basic rights and citizenship. The Kurds have
   taken part in conferences led by the external opposition, such as the NCS
   meeting in Istanbul. Protests have meanwhile occurred in Kurdish majority
   cities such as Darbasiyah, Amuda and Qamishli, but they have not reached
   the scale of unrest as those in Sunni-concentrated areas. The Kurds and
   Sunnis may share the desire for regime change, but once the goal of regime
   change is achieved, whoever is in power, aside from the Kurds, will seek
   to contain Kurdish separatism. There already have been indications that
   Kurdish representatives among Syria's protest movement are being excluded
   from the process of drafting demands.

   The Syrian MB and the Kurds are two of several groups that have tried to
   coalesce, without much success, into a more substantial opposition force
   inside Syria in recent years. These groups took advantage of the Syrian
   regime's weakened position following the withdrawal from Lebanon in the
   spring of 2005 by drafting and signing the Damascus Declaration in October
   of the same year. Written by Syrian dissident Michel Kilo, the declaration
   was a statement of unity calling for political reforms. Declaration
   signatories include the Kurdish Democratic Alliance in Syria and the
   Kurdish Democratic Front in Syria. The Syrian MB was originally part of
   the Damascus Declaration, but internal disagreements led the MB to
   distance itself from this opposition movement in 2009. Disunity among the
   opposition remains to this day.

   Despite the disconnect between the external and internal opposition
   forces, some progress is being made to bridge the gap. Of the various
   councils formed by opposition members outside Syria, the NCS has recently
   emerged as the only council that has received the support of the Local
   Coordinating Committees (LLC), a group that claims to unite roughly 120
   smaller coordinating committees across Syria. The NCS was selected by a
   diverse committee of independents, leftists, liberals and Kurds and claims
   that roughly half of its members, which include grassroots activists and
   traditional opposition supporters, are based inside Syria.

   In the past, the LLC and many other internal Syrian opposition groups,
   fearing competition, have been quick to denounce the formation of these
   external councils. Although many logistical constraints of uniting the
   external and internal opposition persist, the fact that the LLC has
   pledged support for the NCS and called upon the Damascus Declaration
   parties and Kurdish leadership to do so mean this should be watched as a
   potential sign of the opposition gaining coherence.

    
</description>
    <date>2011-12-14 17:18:22</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-19 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5355211_syrian-opposition-breakdown-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anya.alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/154/154205_Whiteboard Doc.docx</path><size>200571</size><md5></md5><sha1>3acd338ae55460c1227a93fab3cf369b2272d4b5</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5355966</id>
    <title>Thought
</title>
    <description>Regarding SF landmarks of interest--they need something like Trapwire
more for threats from activists than from terror threats.  Both are
useful, but the activists are ever present around here.
</description>
    <date>2010-02-08 20:56:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5355966_thought-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5360092</id>
    <title>Update
</title>
    <description>I didn't find the almanac that gf was talking about, but I've found a
bunch of other documentation and I'm 95% sure there are no "lords" by
the name we're searching.  I'm sifting through about 95 possible results
with the same surname--should have an answer later this evening. 
</description>
    <date>2009-12-24 00:04:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5360092_update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5360825</id>
    <title>Re: question
</title>
    <description>Did the question of his employment come up during the weekend? 

On 1/7/2010 1:43 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
&gt; R claims L's gold and jewelry is real. 
&gt;
&gt; Spent a weekend with the two and his accent sounded real to R.
&gt;
&gt; ------Original Message------
&gt; From: Anya Alfano
&gt; To: Fred Burton
&gt; Cc: Korena Zucha
&gt; Cc: Scott Stewart
&gt; Cc: korena zucha
&gt; Subject: Re: question
&gt; Sent: Jan 7, 2010 12:16 PM
&gt;
&gt; And no one suspected the accent wasn't real?  Has anyone called the cell
&gt; phone number to see if the person who picks up has an accent?
&gt;
&gt; On 1/7/2010 1:09 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;   
&gt;&gt; Drew w/a British accent
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Anya Alfano wrote:
&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt; Does R know him as Brian, or Drew?
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; On 1/7/2010 12:36 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; R advises both L &amp; B are unbelievable poker players.  R thinks they work
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; as a tandem.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Anya Alfano wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Maybe the guy has roommates to cover the mortgage so he doesn't have any
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; expenses?  Both his cell phone number and his driver's license are
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; registered to the pflugerville home that he owns.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On 1/7/2010 12:04 PM, zucha@stratfor.com wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;           
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; As a note, his accurint report showed that he had a roommate both at
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; the pflugerville home and Duvall apt although the guy's name did not
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; match those for owners of the cars in the driveway.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On Jan 7, 2010, at 10:56 AM, Anya Alfano &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; &lt;mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;&gt; wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;           
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Yes, the number that LG provided is 512-507-6544.  The number is
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; registered in the name of Brian Baxter at the address of the home he
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; owns. 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On 1/7/2010 11:52 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;               
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Do you have Baxter's cell #?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;           
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;               
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 
&gt;
&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2010-01-07 19:53:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5360825_re-question-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5360841</id>
    <title>Re: Mooney
</title>
    <description>Could we get the username and password for the S4 account on AT&amp;T?  I
think I could find it from there.  On my personal account, I can see
each individual user phone number and search their usage for the last 12
months. --it's all on the AT&amp;T website and no one should know it was
even looked at.


On 1/7/2010 7:13 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt; I'm checking or trying to.  Seems it may not be that simple.  Also trying to
&gt; do it in a non-alerting fashion.   
&gt;
&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt; From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com] 
&gt; Sent: Thursday, January 07, 2010 4:34 PM
&gt; To: Fred Burton
&gt; Cc: 'korena zucha'; scott stewart
&gt; Subject: Re: Mooney
&gt;
&gt; The fact that there are no messages from him to her also makes his role look
&gt; really strange--assuming he's just in it for sex, wouldn't there still be
&gt; some communication between the two of them?  No communication would indicate
&gt; some sort of paid relationship, maybe? 
&gt;
&gt; One other thought--does the company pay for her cell phone bill?  If so, we
&gt; should be able to get a list of her cell phone calls.  I'd be interested to
&gt; see if there are regular calls between her cell phone number and his known
&gt; cell phone number. 
&gt;
&gt; On 1/7/2010 3:25 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;   
&gt;&gt; Mooney is going to walk back the cat on the email and phones again, in 
&gt;&gt; an effort to smoke out any new data.  He recalled a Baxter gmail acct 
&gt;&gt; in his first sweep, but zero email back to her.
&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;     
&gt;   
</description>
    <date>2010-01-08 01:49:31</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5360841_re-mooney-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5360956</id>
    <title>Re: xxx
</title>
    <description>The timeline doesn't fit--we heard all sorts of stories that didn't make
sense long before she was allegedly dying.  
</description>
    <date>2010-01-08 20:12:25</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5360956_re-xxx-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5361076</id>
    <title>GF notes 100111
</title>
    <description>News organization.  Produces the news through Intelligence. 

Market is wide open for what we do.  Tremendous advantage.  Established
brand.  We produce an outstanding product. 

Our challenge is that we're not well-enough known.  There are some in
some areas that know us well, DOD and intel community, and spotty parts
of financial community.  Bob's job is to do what he did in CQ.  In
Washington, CQ was a publication you had to buy because you were afraid
not to buy it.  You were afraid not to know what your competitors were
doing.  Paranoid buying. 

Unlike most companies that build large marketing department, we flipped
it.  We have been trying, failing, shaping, reshaping, until we have a
product, or a core capability, that is not only valuable, but people buy
it.  Not enough people buy it.  But enough buy it that we are now at
overe 50k subscribers, actually more than a million. 

When the US air force buys Stratfor, this means 300k people are
subscribers.  If we were doing advertising, we would say we had 300k
subscribers.  We won't say that.  We impose a rule.  We took the amount
they paid and divided it by $50--least we charge a bulk subscribers--and
said we had that many subscribers.  50k is what's needed to be taken
seriously.  We have more than weekly standard and new republic.  These
are well-known publications and we beat them.  We're now at the
threshold.  I could justify that we have 1.3 million subscribers, in the
sense that 1.3 million people have the right to read Stratfor. 

2.4 million people read our product each week.  Stolen information,
forwarding of weeklies, etc.  That's a big footprint.  We're moving from
being a small company to a modestly small company with over 100
employees all told.  Bob is coming in to do all the things I don't know
how to do.  I tried to do them and failed, best indication I don't know
how to do it.  I'm not interested in doing it, building the "business
side of the company".  What I did got us to this point but it won't get
us to the next point.

Bob is doing two things.  First, he's a tremendous presence.  Someone
from the NY Times said Bob Merry is an icon in Washington.  He brings
tremendous credibility in publishing.  On the side, he writes books
about James Polk and the conquest of Mexico and the the Cold War.  He
understands, former counterintelligence for the army, 10 years at the
WSJ, and he likes building businesses, which is good because I don't
like building businesses.  He's going to take care of that, and I'll
take care of intelligence.  I'm in charge, but I'm not going to give
orders where previous orders have not succeeded. 

We meet in product development.  Right now we have one product--the
website.  We write for the website and everything we know goes into it. 
Our readers have said they hate the amount of material we deliver. 
They're really saying they're interested as a consumer and want to
devote a certain amount of time, but don't want to devote their lives to
understanding, so you should be more selective.  We also do things for
corporations in order to avoid venture capitalists.  Venture capital
would wreck us, and this is an entirely new business, and they won't
allow you to make mistakes, but we will make mistakes.  These contracts
are large enough to fund our growth. We can't meet the demands of the
VC, so this strategy works. 

We are a self funding company--we own it and we use our revenue to build
the company.  Bob Merry has come on board and we're about to change the
game by increasing revenues.  To change the game we need revenues.  To
get the money needed to change the game, we have to play some really
careful ball. 

Stratfor can be as profitable as I want it to be.  But we spend every
cent we get reinvesting in the company.  The danger of not doing that is
standing still--someone else could come get us.  In 2008, I went too far
toward SRM.  My goal is to not do that again.  We're going to redeploy
our resources very carefully. 

In the consumer field, we're up against the economist--it's their market
we have to tap into.  We have a market of about 2.8 million people
interested in international news.  We're also fortunate to have other
markets.  The economist sold its product to consumers and is desperate
to sell to business also--EIU--now a leading joke.  Many reasons for
that.  We have, Bob feels, the ability to sell to businesses.  But most
businesses steal what we have and they're very proud of it.  They don't
feel bad about it.  That's what will happen in the electronic age.  You
can go to war with customers, but that's not a good business model.  You
need to have product differentiation--something different for corp
customers.  Otherwise, I'll buy one license and send to my friends. 
Consumer is buying because he wants to get smart, or because he enjoys
the subject.  Sports fanatic--don't go to newspaper, they go to ESPN and
sports websites.  Those customers who go to ESPN know a huge amount,
care about it, and can only be satisfied with a high quality product. 
There is no market for a mediocre sports website. 

Our consumer readers are not buying us as a throwaway. They buy because
they really care, and they're knowledgable and we need to meet
expectations by being smarter than they are.  That's our task--give them
what they don't already know at a level that's suitable for someone not
living their life for this, and not overwhelming them with the latest
from Bolivia. 

Corporations want information.  If you are a business, you look at this
because you have decisions to make and you have to make them quickly and
intelligently.  You appreciate analysis, but bombings in Khost don't
make you money.  You need things that make you money.  For that market,
we need a different range of products.  We need information as quickly
as possible about what happened--sitreps.  Third thing they want is
information. 

Stratfor must become the single stop for news and information about the
international scene.  That comes in three flavors:
1. Analysis we do now, among the most respected in the world. Barrons is
running an interview--they're using the interview for people to buy next
week's Barrons--interview with George Friedman on Russia.  We're using
them as a hook to PR us.  Circle jerk.  Crazy. People read Barrons to
make money.  People don't read us online to get money.  They may
benefit, but that's not why they buy.  Corporations only want to make
money.  Offer them analysis.  For gov't, CIA, Air Force, this is what
they want and they love it.  For corporations, it's useful for about 30
members of the team.  They want news before anyone else has it. 

In Iran, we discovered that the flow of global information has
collapsed.  Almost all newspapers were using one reformist website that
we tracked to a strip mall in Kirkland, Washington.  Point is that as
poor as our sources were, we had a clearer picture of what was happening
than the New York Times.  Their stories were from Beirut.  We were in. 
Our monitoring system, especially what we're developing with foreign
language sources, make us the only sources of systematic information
that we're collecting in open source.  Add our own sources and the
relationship we're building with foreign press agencies, we are entering
systematically into relationships to share information.  They get to
reprint us, and they tell us the inside story.  We'll have one of the
finest flows of news.  If we sort this through various technologies to
suit the needs of various corporate customers, we will have the ability
to rapidly sort and deliver our information.
2. Stream of intelligence from Stick's shop

3. There are vast numbers of databases that are valuable for national
trade.  Example--IMF trade, UNCTAD.  All are available and unusable.  No
common platform, no interface.  Bob Merry at CQ created over 30
databases, most from third parties, particularly the USG where it's all
free, and make them available if you logon to CQ. International trade
data, military data, econ data, single integrated interface for a single
step to get the product. People will pay to be able to access it.  Our
value ad is the integration and database and added real time news and
superb analysis. 

Good part--I know how to do it and Bob knows how to sell it.  It's
exactly what he did at CQ.  Some of the work patterns will need to be
refined.  Some will need to change.  We're looking at ways to right size
our offering to the consumer.  Right now, everyone has an idea of
something to write, but we may say don't write, read instead.  More time
for analysts to think, and less intel in the construct of articles. 
Hard to think if you also have to write, must step back from that. 

We also need to take the sitrep flow more seriously.  The tasking of
watch officers by analysts is extremely poor.  Must be done daily. 
Information given to watch officers about sites is poor. Sitreps come
out and disappear, regardless of their importance.  Some need to be
stirepped, some need to be shortrepped.  Some analysis should be short,
some long.  All a question of restructuring what we offer.  We'll start
with the consumer.  Prepare ourselves for what we'll offer the
institutional market.

Bob is going to take a few months to build and design the sales and
marketing team.  Take a good look at IT platform and so on.  I'm
starting now to restructure analysis and not so much as an organization
but in terms of mindset and skills. The net assessment program was one
of them.  We talk about net assessments as well as every week talking to
you about business or processes or a skill to learn or what have you. 
We can't grow unless we learn to train and mentor.  We can't hire from
the outside.  That can't be done.  Our training and mentoring skills are
critical.  All of this is in anticipation of opening to new markets that
we haven't served extensively and also producing a better product for
the consumer.  The more effective we are, the more money we make, the
more we reinvest and get raises and other things you're interested in. 

That's where we are.  Bob is working with people in sales and marketing,
who are now walking around with daised looks on their faces.  He is very
demanding, as I am, and I'm sitting here, going back to the beginning. 
I'm going back to basics to make sure we're all on the same page.

That' sthe business model to attack the consumer and corporate markets. 
That breaks the rules--you're only supposed to do one.  But in this
case, the leveragability of the product and process makes sense.  Grant
Perry really understands consumer product, and Bob Merry understands the
corporate situation.  Because we have the skills and visibility, we have
a benchmark to launch off of. 
</description>
    <date>2010-01-12 00:04:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5361076_gf-notes-100111-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anya.alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5361084</id>
    <title>Re: fyi
</title>
    <description>Not that I can find.

On 1/12/2010 1:44 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt; No Anderson Castles?
&gt;
&gt; Anya Alfano wrote:
&gt;   
&gt;&gt; There are apparently more than 70 castles in Aberdeenshire--at least 16
&gt;&gt; of them are currently tourist attractions.  Balmoral, the Queen's place,
&gt;&gt; is one of them, but most of the rest are much more modest. 
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; On 1/12/2010 1:20 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt; May also be cover for illness weight loss?
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; ------Original Message------
&gt;&gt;&gt; From: Anya Alfano
&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Fred Burton
&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: 'korena zucha'
&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: Scott Stewart
&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: Re: fyi
&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent: Jan 12, 2010 12:18 PM
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Will look around for a castle. 
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; The 40 pounds story fits the attention seeking patterns of behavior. 
&gt;&gt;&gt; "Poor Lauren, her fiance told her she has to lose weight...."
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; On 1/12/2010 1:12 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; See what you can find in that town.  She claimed marriage in a castle to me.  I've asked R for more data.  
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Also, she told Susan that the Lord demanded she loose 40 pounds before the wedding...
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; ------Original Message------
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; From: Anya Alfano
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Fred Burton
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: 'korena zucha'
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: Scott Stewart
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: Re: fyi
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent: Jan 12, 2010 12:03 PM
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Has gf sent her away from the week so she can't be confronted while
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Stick is in town? 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Church wedding?  The UK has a lot of regulations about foreigners
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; getting married, including church weddings.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On 1/12/2010 12:53 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Aberdineshire, Scotland
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On Jan 12, 2010, at 11:24 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;           
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Do you know the exact location the wedding is supposed to be held?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Reva Bhalla wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;           
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;               
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;&gt;&gt;       
</description>
    <date>2010-01-12 19:47:03</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5361084_re-fyi-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5362698</id>
    <title>STRATFOR India Country Brief - Feb. 14
</title>
    <description>                          Basic Political Developments

    

     o AICC general secretary Rahul Gandhi on Monday asked the younger
       generation to actively take part in politics as youths comprised over
       40 per cent of the country's population. Addressing students of the
       Mizoram University at Tanhril near here, Rahul said being born and
       brought up in a political family, he was of the view that politicians
       should be in politics for the upliftment of the people.

    

     o A minister in the West Bengal government today claimed that GJM was in
       touch with northeast rebel groups and hinted at a Maoist hand in the
       latest Darjeeling flare-up.

    

     o The Karnataka High Court on Monday upheld the Speaker's order
       disqualifying five independent MLAs from the Assembly membership on
       the eve of the October 11 trust vote, which the B.S. Yeddyurappa
       government won.

    

     o Police and PDP activists clashed today during a rally taken out by the
       opposition party, accusing the Jammu and Kashmir government of failing
       to contain price rise.

    

     o Former Telecom Minister A Raja was today sent to CBI remand for three
       more days by a Delhi court.

    

                            National Economic Trends

    

     o Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee today expressed hope that the
       overall inflation will come down to 7 per cent by March end.

    

          Business, Energy or Environmental regulations or discussions

    

     o Maharatna company SAIL today said it along with Kerala government will
       invest Rs 45 crore to set up a 65,000 tonnes per annum capacity new
       rolling mill at Steel Complex Ltd, Kozhikode to produce high-grade
       steel bars.

    

     o Tata group firms - Tata Tele Services and Tata Tele Services
       Maharastra - on Monday challenged the hike in spectrum usage charge in
       the Supreme Court.

    

     o Ericsson today said it has inked an exclusive alliance with Akamai
       Technologies to introduce solutions that will improve end-user
       internet experiences like mobile e-commerce, enterprise applications
       and internet content.

    

     o Larsen &amp; Toubro on Monday said it has received a Rs 1,100 crore order
       from Gujarat State Electricity Corporation (GSECL) for setting up a
       375-MW gas-based power plant at Dhuvaran, near Baroda.

    

     o Tata Advanced Systems and Lockheed Martin Corporation, on Monday
       announced the formation of a new joint venture company called Tata
       Lockheed Martin Aerostructures to manufacture aerostructures for the
       C-130 aircraft produced by Lockheed Martin.

    

     o The Civil Aviation Ministry has sought another Rs 2,000 crore for the
       ailing national carrier in this financial year.

    

     o BHEL on Monday said it has bagged an USD 436 million (approximately Rs
       2,000 crore) contract for setting up a gas-based power project in
       Yemen.

    

     o The government today said it will award the Maharatna status to the
       world's biggest coal producer Coal India Ltd before this month-end, a
       tag which will give more financial autonomy to the state-run firm.

           Activity in the Oil and Gas sector (including regulatory)

    

     o Turkmenistan is seeking a price linked fuel oil or naphtha for the
       natural gas it plans to sell to India through a USD 7.6 billion
       pipeline passing through Afghanistan and Pakistan.

    

     o ONGC has revealed a new weapon from its armoury that can derail the
       transaction-a clause in the contract, which it says establishes
       without doubt that Cairn and the government also have to share the
       state firm's royalty payment .

    

     o Coal India is interested in tapping shale gas, a form of natural gas
       trapped in shale rock formations, to improve its bottomline and allow
       the government to reduce imports of natural gas in the process.

Militant Activity/Terrorism (Particularly in Bangalore, Mumbai, Noida, Chennai,
                                  Coimbatore)

    

     o A NSCN(K) cadre was killed in a factional feud with its rival NSCN(IM)
       group in Tirap district.

    

     o Union Home Secretary G K Pillai said emergence of right-wing terror
       elements in the country is a "cause of worry" for the government
       which, however, says it is not a "big threat" now.

    

     o A delegation of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) will meet
       Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh this evening.

    

                              Labor/Social Unrest

    

     o Unidentified assailants shot at and critically injured Basirhat Block
       president of Congress Siraj-ul Bense in North 24 Parganas district,
       West Bengal, triggering protests in the town.

    

     o GJM activists protesting the police firing in Sipchu today courted
       arrest at Kalimpong, Kurseong and Mirik police stations of the
       district even as the indefinite bandh called by the outfit entered the
       sixth day disrupting normal life.

    

                                   Full Text

                          Basic Political Developments

    

   Younger generation should participate in politics: Rahul

   http://www.zeenews.com/news687252.html

    

   Updated on Monday, February 14, 2011, 19:26

    

    Aizawl: AICC general secretary Rahul Gandhi On Monday asked the younger
   generation to actively take part in politics as youths comprised over 40
   per cent of the country's population.

    

   Addressing students of the Mizoram University at Tanhril near here, Rahul
   said being born and brought up in a political family, he was of the view
   that politicians should be in politics for the upliftment of the people.

    

   "I believe in listening (and then) implementing", he said, adding that he
   had come to Mizoram to listen to the voice of the youths.

    

    

   "I believe that the youth, comprising more than 40 per cent of our
   population should come into politics," he said.

    

   After interacting with the students for more than an hour, Rahul
   inaugurated a girls' hostel inside the university campus.

    

    

   Rahul changed his earlier plan to return today and would stay overnight in
   Aizawl, Congress sources said, adding he would address a press conference
   here tomorrow.

    

    

   'GJM in touch with NE rebels, procuring arms'

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/1351236_-GJM-in-touch-with-NE-rebels--procuring-arms--

   Kolkata, Feb 14 (PTI) A minister in the West Bengal government today
   claimed that GJM, agitating for a Gorkhaland state, was in touch with
   northeast rebel groups and hinted at a Maoist hand in the latest
   Darjeeling flare-up.

    

   Ashok Bhattacharya, also a prominent CPI-M leader, told reporters that GJM
   movement leaders were in contact with extremist groups of the northeast
   and procuring arms from them.

    

   Holding the GJM solely responsible for the violence in the Darjeeling
   hills 'in connivance with the Trinamool Congress', Bhattacharya said these
   parties had been out to put the blame on the state government for the
   present unrest in the hills.

    

   Calling for a negotiated settlement of the hill problem, he said he did
   not rule out a Maoist hand in the violence in the hills.

    

   Karnataka HC upholds disqualification of independent MLAs

   http://www.thehindu.com/news/states/karnataka/article1455046.ece?homepage=true

   The Karnataka High Court on Monday upheld the Speaker's order
   disqualifying five independent MLAs, who had withdrawn support to the
   ruling BJP, from the Assembly membership on the eve of the October 11
   trust vote, which the B.S. Yeddyurappa government won.

    

   Dismissing petitions filed by the five MLAs challenging their
   disqualification by Speaker K.G. Bopaiah, a full bench of the court
   pronounced the verdict which held that the October 10 order is not in
   violation of Constitutional mandate nor is there any infirmity based on
   mala fides or perversity.

    

   The Speaker had disqualified 16 MLAs - 11 from BJP and five Independents -
   under the anti-defection law before Mr. Yeddyurappa won a vote a
   confidence on the floor of the Assembly, passing a concurrent order on
   separate petitions seeking their disqualification.

    

   The petitions had been filed by BJP MLAs C.T. Ravi and D.N. Jevaraj and a
   voter each from five constituencies from where the five were elected.

    

   The bench, comprising Justice Mohan Shantanagoudar, Justice S. Abdul
   Nazeer and Justice A.S. Bopanna, held that the petitions filed by the five
   voters are "maintainable".

    

   The five MLAs - Gulihatti D. Shekar, Venkataramanappa, P.M. Narendraswamy,
   D. Sudhakar and Shivaraj Thangadagi - prayed for quashing the Speaker's
   order as "illegal, void and not enforceable" on the ground that they were
   not BJP members.

    

   But the BJP had maintained that they had joined it and attended its
   legislature party meetings.

    

   PDP activists clash with police in Jammu

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/1350190_PDP-activists-clash-with-police-in-Jammu

   Jammu, Feb 14 (PTI) Police and PDP activists clashed here today during a
   rally taken out by the opposition party, accusing the Jammu and Kashmir
   government of failing to contain price rise.

    

   The incident took place when police lathicharged on PDP activists at Qasim
   Nagar and Riviera Chowk to prevent them from moving towards Civil
   Secretariat in view of imposition of prohibitory orders in the city.

    

   The protesters led by PDP senior vice-president T S Bajwa and general
   secretary Balbir Singh condemned police and administration for using force
   to stop their peaceful protest rallies.

    

   CBI custody for A Raja, Shahid Balwa extended

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/1350672_CBI-custody-for-A-Raja--Shahid-Balwa-extended

   New Delhi, Feb 14 (PTI) Former Telecom Minister A Raja was today sent to
   CBI remand for three more days by a Delhi court which also extended the
   custody of Swan telecom promoter Shahid Usman Balwa for four days in the
   2G spectrum case after the CBI said it wanted to confront them on the
   money trail.

    

   "Considering the enormity of crime, complex and complicated nature of the
   investigation, voluminous documents involved in the case, I find that the
   prayer for further custodial interrogation of the accused persons is
   justified," Special CBI judge O P Saini said.

    

   During the hearing on its plea for extension of the remand for Raja and
   Balwa, the CBI said the duo needed to be confronted with some more
   documents recovered by the investigating agency.

                            National Economic Trends

    

   Inflation to decline to 7 per cent by March: Pranab

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/1349743_Inflation-to-decline-to-7-pc-by-March--Pranab

   New Delhi, Feb 14 (PTI) With marginal decline in rate of price rise in
   January, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee today expressed hope that the
   overall inflation will come down to 7 per cent by March end.

    

   "I am hoping that it (inflation) would be roughly around 7 per cent (by
   March end). I hope so. But I cannot firmly commit it," Mukherjee told
   reporters here.

    

   The overall inflation has shown a marginal decline to 8.23 per cent in
   January, from 8.43 per cent in the previous month.

    

   The Finance Minister, however, said the inflation numbers in the coming
   months would depend on global developments and the way the commodity
   prices move in the global markets.

          Business, Energy or Environmental regulations or discussions

    

   SAIL, Kerala govt to invest Rs 45 cr steel mill

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/1350999_SAIL--Kerala-govt-to-invest-Rs-45-cr-steel-mill-

   New Delhi, Feb 14 (PTI) Maharatna company SAIL today said it along with
   Kerala government will invest Rs 45 crore to set up a 65,000 tonnes per
   annum capacity new rolling mill at Steel Complex Ltd, Kozhikode to produce
   high-grade steel bars.

    

   The Joint Venture Company (SAIL-SCL Ltd) will set up a "new rolling mill
   of 65,000 tonnes per annum capacity for producing high grade TMT bars at
   an estimated investment of Rs 45 crore," Steel Authority of India Ltd said
   in a statement here.

    

   SAIL, which formally bought Kerala government's 50 per cent stake in SCL
   and now manages its operations, said, "SAIL -SCL Limited, the joint
   venture company resulting from the acquisition, will work towards the
   revival of SCL."

    

   The company had inked a pact with Kerala Government in May 2008 for
   revival of SCL, owned by the state government.

    

   Tata firms challenge hike in spectrum charges

   http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article1455250.ece

   Tata group firms - Tata Tele Services and Tata Tele Services Maharastra -
   on Monday challenged the hike in spectrum usage charge in the Supreme
   Court.

    

   The two companies challenged the order of the tribunal TDSAT, which has
   declined to stay DoT's hike in the spectrum charge.

    

   Admitting the plea, a three-judge bench headed by the Chief Justice S.H.
   Kapadia directed the two firms to deposit 50 per cent of the increased
   spectrum usage charge demanded by the DoT and to submit a bank guarantee
   for the rest within a week.

    

   The Supreme Court also issued notice to the DoT and directed it to file a
   reply.

    

   Besides, the bench directed to tag Tata group firms' appeal with the other
   telecom operators - RCom, R Tel, Vodafone, Bharti Airtel, Bharti Hexacom
   (operating in Rajasthan), Idea Cellular and Uninor.

    

   The operators are challenging DoT's decision to increase the usage charges
   3-8 per cent of adjusted gross revenue, depending on quantum of spectrum
   held by an operator.

    

   Earlier, on January 31, the Supreme Court had directed two Anil Ambani
   group firms Reliance Communications and Reliance Telecom to deposit 50 per
   cent of the increased spectrum usage charge demanded by DoT and to submit
   a bank guarantee for the rest within two weeks.

    

   The DoT had asked the two ADAG group firms to deposit Rs. 94 crore for the
   spectrum charges as per the new rules.

    

   On October 22, the Supreme Court had stayed the TDSAT order upholding a
   hike in 2G telecom spectrum usage charges, but had asked Bharti, Vodafone
   and Idea to deposit with it 50 per cent of the proposed increase in fee
   with the court's registry.

    

    

    

   Ericsson, Akamai in exclusive pact for solutions

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/1351341_Ericsson--Akamai-in-exclusive-pact-for-solutions-

   New Delhi, Feb 14 (PTI) Networking equipment maker Ericsson today said it
   has inked an exclusive alliance with Akamai Technologies to introduce
   solutions that will improve end-user internet experiences like mobile
   e-commerce, enterprise applications and internet content.

    

   "The companies will jointly develop solutions for the fast-growing market
   of content and applications delivered to mobile devices," Ericsson and
   Akamai said in a joint statement.

    

   The alliance will help end-users get the best possible experience when
   accessing the web from their mobile devices, added David Kenny, President
   of Akamai.

    

   Larsen receives Rs 1,100 cr order from GSECL

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/energy/power/larsen-receives-rs-1100-cr-order-from-gsecl/articleshow/7493977.cms

   NEW DELHI: Engineering major Larsen &amp; Toubro on Monday said it has
   received a Rs 1,100 crore order from Gujarat State Electricity Corporation
   (GSECL) for setting up a 375-MW gas-based power plant at Dhuvaran, near
   Baroda.

    

   The project, which will be executed by the gas-based power projects
   business unit of Baroda-based L&amp;T Power, will be commissioned during the
   next Five-Year Plan, L&amp;T said in a statement.

    

   L&amp;T will design, supply, install and commission the entire power project
   on a turnkey basis. It will procure advance gas turbines and
   high-efficiency steam turbines for the plant from Siemens AG, Germany.

    

   "The EPC order was bagged by L&amp;T under global competitive bidding against
   stiff competition from domestic and international power plant equipment
   manufacturers," L&amp;T said.

    

   L&amp;T has already executed a number of gas-based power projects and recently
   commissioned a 238.5-MW co-generation power plant for Indian Oil
   Corporation at Panipat. It is also executing a 2x384-MW gas-based power
   plant for GMR Group at Vemagiri, in Andhra Pradesh.

    

   Tata, Lockheed Martin in JV to make aerostructures in India

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/transportation/airlines-/-aviation/tata-lockheed-martin-in-jv-to-make-aerostructures-in-india/articleshow/7494453.cms

   MUMBAI: Tata Advanced Systems and Lockheed Martin Corporation, on Monday
   announced the formation of a new joint venture company called Tata
   Lockheed Martin Aerostructures to manufacture aerostructures for the C-130
   aircraft produced by Lockheed Martin.

    

   The new Tata Lockheed Martin Aerostructures facility is export-oriented
   and the products manufactured will form a key aircraft structure that
   Lockheed Martin will integrate and complete for its global C-130 aircraft
   customers, a press release issued here stated.

    

   Tata Advanced Systems is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Tata Sons focused on
   providing integrated solutions for aerospace, defence, homeland security
   and disaster management.

    

   Tata group Chairman, Ratan Tata, said "we are very proud of our
   association with Lockheed Martin and believe it will raise the capability
   of the aerospace industry in India as also complement the efforts of our
   defence public sector undertakings."

    

   Lockheed Martin's Executive Vice-President Aeronautics, Ralph D Heath,
   said that "this partnership is established as a strategic element of our
   global supply-chain and solidifies our presence in India. We are confident
   it will enhance long-term competitiveness of the C-130 and assure its
   production for decades to come."

    

   The USD 46 billion Lockheed Martin is a global security company that
   employs about 1,32,000 people worldwide and is principally engaged in the
   research, design, manufacture, integration and sustainment of advanced
   technology systems, products and services.

    

   Another Rs 2,000 crores sought for Air India

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/transportation/airlines-/-aviation/another-rs-2000-crores-sought-for-air-india/articleshow/7494732.cms

   NEW DELHI: After getting a total of Rs 2,000 crore as equity for Air India
   in two tranches, the Civil Aviation Ministry has sought another Rs 2,000
   crore for the ailing national carrier in this financial year.

    

   Civil Aviation Minister Vayalar Ravi would meet Finance Minister Pranab
   Mukherjee here on Tuesday to discuss issues pertaining to the aviation
   sector in the upcoming budget.

    

   While a demand for allocation of Rs 2,000 crore for Air India has already
   been made by the Ministry, sources said provision for at least Rs 1,200
   crore worth of equity could be made in the 2011-12 budget. The remaining
   part could come in the supplementary budget, they added.

    

   "We have already asked for more," Ravi told reporters to a query about the
   the budget allocation sought by him.

    

   He refused to divulge any details. The Minister would also hold a meeting
   with leaders of all trade unions in Air India on Wednesday in a bid to
   seek their cooperation to turnaround the carrier. The airline has 32,000
   employees on its rolls and another 10,000 on contract.

    

   Himself a trade union leader, Ravi would camp in Mumbai for two days and
   would also hold discussions with the management on the feedback he gets
   from the unions.

    

   "I will meet the trade union leaders and seek their cooperation.... The
   basic aim will be to know their mind on the issues and to what extent they
   can cooperate to take Air India forward", Ravi said, acknowledging that
   the employees "may have grievances".

    

   To a question on the recent sacking of Air India Express COO Pawan Arora,
   he said he was not part of the turnaround plan group in the airline and
   added "any one person leaving will not be a problem for Air India".

    

   Asked about questions raised by parliamentary committees on the merger of
   Air India and erstwhile Indian Airlines, the Minister emphatically said,
   "There is no rethink on the merger. It has already taken place".

    

   BHEL bags USD 436 mn contract for power project in Yemen

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/energy/power/bhel-bags-usd-436-mn-contract-for-power-project-in-yemen/articleshow/7494841.cms

   NEW DELHI: State-owned BHEL on Monday said it has bagged an USD 436
   million (approximately Rs 2,000 crore) contract for setting up a gas-based
   power project in Yemen.

    

   "BHEL has received an order for a Gas Turbine-based power plant from
   Yemen. The USD 436-million contract is for the Marib Gas-Based Power
   Project (Phase II)," a company statement said.

    

   The project is financed by the Arab Fund for Economic and Social
   Development, the Saudi Fund for Development and the Government of Yemen.

    

   Yemen plans to add another 3,000 MW of installed capacity in the next 4-5
   years, which will present an opportunity to BHEL to further expand its
   operations in this country.

    

   So far, projects totalling to over 12,500 MW have been contracted from
   overseas market by BHEL.

    

   BHEL is presently executing 45 contracts in 23 countries, which include
   major turnkey projects in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Libya, Syria and Sudan.

    

   Meanwhile, the PSU recently signed an agreement with Spain's Abengoa to
   set up solar power projects in India.

    

   The agreement will enable both the organisations to leverage their
   capabilities in offering EPC solutions for solar power projects in India,
   as well as give them the opportunity to explore cooperation on energy
   projects in other parts of the world.

    

   Coal India likely to get Maharatna status by month-end

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/indl-goods-/-svs/metals-mining/coal-india-likely-to-get-maharatna-status-by-month-end/articleshow/7495750.cms

   NEW DELHI: The government today said it will award the Maharatna status to
   the world's biggest coal producer Coal India Ltd before this month-end, a
   tag which will give more financial autonomy to the state-run firm.

    

   Department of Public Enterprises Secretary Bhaskar Chatterjee said CIL
   will get the Maharatna status as early as "by the end of this month".

    

   "We have finished all the proceedings at our level. We are now sending the
   file to the Cabinet Secretary and I hope that in the next 2-3 days, we
   will have the clearance from the Cabinet Secretary," Chatterjee told PTI
   here.

    

   He said clearance from Cabinet Secretary K M Chandrasekhar was awaited.
   Currently, CIL is one of the 16 Navratna PSUs.

    

   Efforts are on to award CIL the highest status before its present Chairman
   and Managing Director Partha Bhattacharya retires later this month,
   Chatterjee added.

    

   CIL, the world's largest coal-miner with a turnover of Rs 52,000 crore in
   2009-10, will be the fifth PSU to qualify for the categorisation, which
   entitles a state-owned firm to more financial freedom.

    

   At present, there are four PSUs with Maharatna status -- ONGC, NTPC, IOC
   and SAIL.

    

   A PSU needs to have a three-year track record of annual net profit of over
   Rs 5,000 crore, a net worth of more than Rs 15,000 crore and a turnover of
   more than Rs 25,000 crore -- besides being listed on stock exchanges -- to
   be eligible for Maharatna status.

    

   CIL has reported a profit of over Rs 5,000 crore for the past three years
   in a row.

    

   The status would provide the PSU's board financial authority to pursue
   plans for acquiring mining assets in South Africa, Indonesia, Australia
   and the US more aggressively.

    

   A Maharatna PSU can invest up to Rs 5,000 crore in a project
   independently, while the limit for Navratna companies is Rs 1,000 crore.

    

   When asked which other company is in line for a Maharatna tag, Chatterjee
   said "the promosing one is BHEL. Let's hope that they come up".

    

   When asked whether BHEL has approached formally, he said, "not yet".

    

   They have to formally fulfill the criterion from their audited accounts,
   Chatterjee said adding, "on the horizon I can only see BHEL at this
   point".

    

   The government had decided in December, 2009 to give more operational
   freedom to the top-performing PSUs through the Maharatna scheme.

    

           Activity in the Oil and Gas sector (including regulatory)

    

   Turkmenistan seeks oil linked price for TAPI gas

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/1351002_Turkmenistan-seeks-oil-linked-price-for-TAPI-gas-

   New Delhi, Feb 14 (PTI) Turkmenistan is seeking a price linked fuel oil or
   naphtha for the natural gas it plans to sell to India through a USD 7.6
   billion pipeline passing through Afghanistan and Pakistan.

    

   India has rejected the demand as the Technical Working Group (TWG) on the
   Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline got underway
   in Ashgabat today.

    

   Official sources said Turkmengas, the national oil firm of Turkmenistan,
   first sought a price linked to fuel oil but later changed it to naphtha
   reasoning that natural gas was meant to replace these liquid fuel power
   plants.

    

   India however turned down the demand saying its refineries were already
   producing surplus naphtha and saw no logic in linking the price of natural
   gas to it.

    

   ONGC wants Cairn to share royalty; Vedanta deal may derail

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/energy/oil-gas/ongc-wants-cairn-to-share-royalty-vedanta-deal-may-derail/articleshow/7490852.cms

   NEW DELHI: Six months after the $9.6-billion Cairn-Vedanta deal was
   announced, ONGC has revealed a new weapon from its armoury that can derail
   the transaction-a clause in the contract, which it says establishes
   without doubt that Cairn and the government also have to share the state
   firm's royalty payment .

    

   Loading some of the royalty burden on Cairn can deflate the value of the
   deal by $1.5 billion, bankers said, a contentious issue for the
   transaction in which Cairn Plc agreed to sell the controlling stake in its
   Indian unit to London-listed metals and mining group, Vedanta Resources.

    

   Cairn does not pay any royalty in the Rajasthan field . ONGC holds 30% in
   the block but pays the entire royalty to the Rajasthan government, as per
   the contract. It says this expenditure has to be later recovered from the
   revenue of the field before the companies and the government share profit.
   In other words, the royalty burden will have to be eventually shared by
   ONGC, Cairn and the government.

    

   Cairn, which is racing against time to obtain government approval,
   complete the mandatory open offer to shareholders and meet the April 15
   deadline for the deal, says royalty is not cost-recoverable. ONGC's
   Director (Finance) DK Sarraf said Clause 3.1.9 in the accounting procedure
   of the production sharing contract (PSC) explicitly states that all taxes
   and levies charged by the central or state governments, or any official
   agency, are "cost-recoverable", the only exception being corporate income
   tax.

    

   "It is in simple English. It needs no legal interpretation," he told ET.
   "We have been paying royalty and we will continue to pay royalty, but it
   is cost-recoverable," Sarraf said. Cairn India declined comment on the
   matter but sources close to the company say Cairn has told the oil
   ministry that it invested risk capital in India after the government
   promised exemption from taxes such as royalty and cess.

    

   Further, ONGC wears two hats: It is the licensee of the field, which
   entitles it to drill in the desert region and obliges it to pay royalty.
   In addition, it is also the government nominee holding 30% interest in the
   field as a contractor along with Cairn. Cairn, in its discussion with the
   government, has argued that Clause 3.1.9 of the PSC is applicable to costs
   incurred by the contractors, and not the licensee. Also, the contractor
   and the licensee could well have been different entities, making it
   legally impossible for the licensee to recover its costs using a clause
   meant for the contractor.

    

   ONGC, on the other hand, says that when it comes to a dispute, what really
   matters is what is written in contract. The government now has a
   standardised contract for all PSCs, ruling out such disputes. "Over 200
   production sharing contracts under the New Exploration Licensing Policy
   treat royalty as cost-recoverable," said an oil ministry official, who did
   not want to be named.

    

   CIL wants slice of shale gas pie

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/energy/power/cil-wants-slice-of-shale-gas-pie/articleshow/7492756.cms

   KOLKATA: Coal India is interested in tapping shale gas, a form of natural
   gas trapped in shale rock formations, to improve its bottomline and allow
   the government to reduce imports of natural gas in the process.

    

   Caught napping when the government permitted the exploration of coal bed
   methane gas, CIL does not want to miss a similar opportunity this time
   around, as the government is very keen to step up exploration for natural
   gas.

    

   "We want to go ahead in the coal-related value chain and tapping shale gas
   is one such move," CIL Chairman Partha S Bhattacharjee told PTI.

    

   Asked if the government will allow the CIL to get into the shale gas
   business, Bhattacharjee said, "We will try to convince the government to
   allow us to tap the gas as we are the largest coal miner, with the largest
   coal reserves."

    

   The government is expected to soon come out with a licencing policy for
   exploration of shale gas in the country.

    

   Shale gas, which was struck recently by the ONGC near Durgapur in West
   Bengal, has emerged as an important energy source in the US over the past
   few years and now accounts for almost one-fourth of natural gas supply
   there.

    

   Reliance Industries has also indicated its interest in extracting shale
   gas.

    

   CIL sources said the move would not only improve the public sector
   company's own bottomline, but will also present the government with an
   opportunity to reduce dependence on imports of natural gas and crude to
   meet the country's energy requirement.

    

   Asked how CIL intended to get the required technology for extraction of
   the gas, sources said this would not be a major problem as there are
   companies that can offer the expertise.

    

   The company also has plans to explore the potential for a coal-to-oil
   project, he said.

    

Militant Activity/Terrorism (Particularly in Bangalore, Mumbai, Noida, Chennai,
                                  Coimbatore)

    

   'NSCN(K) cadre killed in factional feud with rivals'

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/1349666_-NSCN-K--cadre-killed-in-factional-feud-with-rivals--nbsp-

   Itanagar, Feb 14 (PTI) A NSCN(K) cadre was killed in a factional feud with
   its rival NSCN(IM) group in Tirap district, Assam Rifles sources said
   today.

    

   NSCN(K) cadre Palai Wangsa, a native of Longphong village, was killed in a
   fierce gunbattle between cadres of the rival faction of the NSCN
   yesterday, the sources said.

    

   During the clash a, bomb blast was also reported to have completely
   destroyed a bamboo plantation at Konsa village, the sources said, adding
   security has been beefed up in the area and combing operations are on to
   flush out the underground outfits.

    

   An intermittent gun battle for area dominance between both factions of the
   Naga rebel group has been going on in the district since December last
   year.

    

   'Emergence of right-wing terror a cause of worry'

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/1350506_-Emergence-of-right-wing-terror-a-cause-of-worry--

   New Delhi, Feb 14 (PTI) Emergence of right-wing terror elements in the
   country is a "cause of worry" for the government which, however, says it
   is not a "big threat" now.

    

   In an interaction with PTI, Union Home Secretary G K Pillai also made
   clear that action would be taken against any police official who was found
   implicating innocent youths on serious charges of blasts in the past.

    

   "Right now, they (right-wing elements) are not that big a threat...
   whatever intelligence we are getting. But it is a cause of worry. The more
   radical and fundamental groups you have in the country, it is a cause of
   worry. That is something we have to tackle," he said.

    

   ULFA leaders to meet Manmohan Singh

   http://www.newkerala.com/news/world/fullnews-147097.html

   New Delhi, Feb 14 : A delegation of the United Liberation Front of Asom
   (ULFA) will meet Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh this evening.

    

   An eight-member ULFA team, lead by its chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa, will
   meet Dr. Singh at his 7 Race Course Road residence.

    

   The team had earlier met Union Home Minister P Chidambaram and Union Home
   Secretary GK Pillai.

    

   Chidambaram told senior ULFA leaders that peace talks are at a preliminary
   stage.

    

   ULFA leaders have also met Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi and sought his
   cooperation in carrying forward the peace process with the Central
   Government.

    

   Gogoi had on January 20 said that peace talks with ULFA are on the right
   track and will continue even without Paresh Baruah, the separatist
   group''s commander-in-chief.

                              Labor/Social Unrest

    

   Congress Block president shot at, triggering protests

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/1349638_Congress-Block-president-shot-at--triggering-protests

   Barasat (WB), Feb 14 (PTI) Unidentified assailants shot at and critically
   injured Basirhat Block president of Congress Siraj-ul Bense in North 24
   Parganas district, triggering protests in the town.

    

   The assailants fired at Bense late last night at Basirhat town,
   Superintendent of Police Rahul Srivastav said.

    

   Bense has been admitted to R G Kar Medical College Hospital in Kolkata in
   a critical condition, the SP said.

    

   To protest the firing, Congress workers blocked railway tracks and roads
   at Basirhat town this morning, police sources said.

    

   The protest was lifted after senior police and district administration
   officials persuaded them to lift the blockade.

    

   Mass arrest programme in Darjeeling on 6th day of bandh

   http://www.ptinews.com/news/1349736_Mass-arrest-programme-in-Darjeeling-on-6th-day-of-bandh

   Darjeeling, Feb 14 (PTI) GJM activists protesting the police firing in
   Sipchu today courted arrest at Kalimpong, Kurseong and Mirik police
   stations of the district even as the indefinite bandh called by the outfit
   entered the sixth day disrupting normal life.

    

   Scores of GJM activists gathered before the police stations as part of the
   programme protesting against the Sipchu firing that has claimed three
   lives.

    

   However, the number of those arrested or detained is yet to be known.

    

   Meanwhile Gorkha ex-servicemen, who were sent back from the banks of
   Panchnoi river, barely 2 km from Siliguri yesterday evening by the police,
   have been stopped again after they gathered at the spot in the morning to
   resume their Darjeeling to Siliguri padayatra, police said.

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-02-14 15:40:19</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-11 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5362698_stratfor-india-country-brief-feb-14-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>fred.burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Declan_O'Donovan@dell.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>John_McClurg@DELL.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5364701</id>
    <title>Business Proposal
</title>
    <description>   Greetings George Friedman,

   My name is Steven Taylor, and I would like to discuss a business
   opportunity that offers the potential for considerable earnings.

   I work for a privately held manufacturing company, which currently
   purchases a product vital to its processing operations at a price
   significantly above the manufacturing cost. In my proposed business
   venture, you would assume the role of stand-in supplier, providing this
   key material while retaining the same profit margins. My role would be to
   introduce you to my company as the supplier and to obtain a contract
   between you and my employer.

   I understand that your experience with Strategic Forecasting Inc does not
   directly relate to my field. However, this venture is more in line with
   your personal capabilities rather than your professional experience.

   I would like to confirm your current phone number . Please send a return
   email to verify your contact number and to schedule the most convenient
   time to discuss these possibilities in detail. I look forward to speaking
   with you soon.

   Kindest Regards,
   Steven Taylor
</description>
    <date>2011-12-05 17:01:56</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-06-20 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5364701_business-proposal-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>s.taylor@inbox.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5365547</id>
    <title>Re: TrapWire (TW)
</title>
    <description> I'm not sure about the archives--have asked, will let you know. 

It wouldn't hurt to rewrite some of those pieces.  It would also be cool
to see a "brief" type product that points out those issues when we see
them--a little longer than a sitrep, with some analysis that could be
digested quickly. 

On 9/23/10 10:42 AM, scott stewart wrote:
&gt; Did turning off of the archives affect the special topics pages?
&gt;
&gt; Should we think about re-writing some of those pieces?
&gt;
&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt; From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
&gt; Sent: Thursday, September 23, 2010 7:54 AM
&gt; To: Anya Alfano
&gt; Subject: Re: TrapWire (TW)
&gt;
&gt; The agencies with TW are potentially the single biggest captive audience
&gt; we have that could purchase something from us especially in the govt
&gt; arena.  Do you know how much a Lockheed Martin would pay to have their
&gt; logo/feed into the USSS CP?  MI5?  RCMP?  LAPD CT?  NYPD CT?  Its
&gt; unbelievable access.  Either we handle this one right, or we'll fall
&gt; flat on our faces. 
&gt;
&gt; Anya Alfano wrote:
&gt;&gt;  There are two types of information in there --
&gt;&gt; 1. Sitrep Feeds
&gt;&gt; 2. STRATFOR security series -- including the surveillance series and the
&gt;&gt; attack cycle series. 
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; The Sitrep feeds are current and update every day, they're just not
&gt;&gt; focused enough on security issues.  The security series pieces are
&gt;&gt; older, including the attack cycle one that's from 2006. 
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; I'm working with Kevin to make the sitreps more security focused, and
&gt;&gt; I've got a list of more recent security pieces that they can put onto
&gt;&gt; the site.  That said, Dan was clear that he'd like to keep the attack
&gt;&gt; cycle and surveillance series because they're very relevant, even if
&gt;&gt; they're a few years old.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; On 9/23/10 8:24 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt; What has been feeding in?  How can stuff from 2006 be there? 
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Anya Alfano wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;  Fred,
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; I talked with Dan and Alicia over there a few days ago--they gave me a
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; visual presentation of the website and the sitrep feed.  The sitreps
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; aren't all focused on security at this point, but I've talked with Kevin
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; in our IT department and we think we've found a solution.  I'm planning
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; to feed some security portal content in there with a new specialized
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; query that we're creating for the latest version of the security portal,
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; as long as Kevin says that's really possible. 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; For the "Resources" content, I'm going to provide them with a few
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; additional pieces to choose from that are more recent--then our editors
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; group will reformat so they can host it on their site. 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; We're planning to regroup on this either tomorrow or early next week,
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; depending on their schedule.  Let me know if you have any other
&gt; thoughts.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Thanks,
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Anya
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On 9/22/10 7:52 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Thank goodness
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; OMG
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; I need to see what we are pushing in.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; ------Original Message------
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; From: Beth Bronder
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Fred Burton
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Korena Zucha
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Anya Alfano
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Scott Stewart
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Rodger Baker
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: George Friedman
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: Darryl O'Connor
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; ReplyTo: Beth Bronder
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: Re: TrapWire (TW)
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent: Sep 22, 2010 6:49 PM
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Fred -
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Anya is already working with someone from Mike's team to fix the
&gt; content feed (to be security focused) which is something that came up in a
&gt; meeting I had with Dan Burton from TW last week. We're on it.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Beth
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; ------Original Message------
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; From: Fred Burton
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Beth Bronder
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Korena Zucha
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Anya Alfano
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Scott Stewart
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Rodger Baker
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: George Friedman
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: Darryl O'Connor
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; ReplyTo: Fred Burton
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: TrapWire (TW)
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent: Sep 22, 2010 7:31 PM
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Chatted with Mike M, the TW operator and former CIA crony.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; He said our feed was taking up 25% of the TW screens inside the client
&gt; command posts and that the feedback they are getting is that the info being
&gt; pushed in is more geo-pol centered vice tactical-security.  
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; How can we fix?  Who is auditing what is going in the pipe?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Thanks
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent from my Verizon Wireless BlackBerry
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
&gt;
</description>
    <date>2010-09-23 16:50:28</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5365547_re-trapwire-tw-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5366640</id>
    <title>PNA/AFRICA/LATAM/MESA - Lebanese Hezbollah chief raps USA,
	urges calm in Syria -
	IRAN/US/ISRAEL/LEBANON/PNA/SYRIA/IRAQ/EGYPT/BAHRAIN/LIBYA/YEMEN/TUNISIA
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2011-12-07 09:43:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-22 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5366640_pna-africa-latam-mesa-lebanese-hezbollah-chief-raps-usa.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>nobody@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:translations@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
      <tag><name>translations@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5367152</id>
    <title>Re: [Fwd: Mid-East]
</title>
    <description>Reva has a comprehensive analysis coming out on the subject in a few
minutes that covers each of the countries in the region--it should be
ready for publication tomorrow.  Essentially, we don't believe they're
necessarily dominos because each of the situations is so different and
each government has differing abilities to quell the unrest, or prevent
it in some cases.  At this point, we're predicting that all remaining
regimes can hold things together in the near term, though much of that
is events driven and could change if there's a serious provocation. 

On 2/16/11 4:08 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt; ?
&gt;
&gt; -------- Original Message --------
&gt; Subject: 	Mid-East
&gt; Date: 	Wed, 16 Feb 2011 16:04:58 -0500
&gt; From: 	Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@trapwire.com&gt;
&gt; To: 	Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; What are your analysts making of these dominos falling in the mid-east?
&gt; Would appear to be a perfect storm coming -- massive budget cuts in
&gt; Western countries, and the shackles being removed from groups advocating
&gt; the return of the caliphate. Good business for us I fear.
&gt;
&gt;  
&gt;
&gt;  
&gt;
&gt;  
&gt;
</description>
    <date>2011-02-16 22:24:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5367152_re-fwd-mid-east-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5368282</id>
    <title>IMPORTANT IMPORTANT
</title>
    <description>   Colleagues:
    
   Note the report below.
    
   Does this check out?
    
   If so, please pay this guy well and immediately for this, and let's get
   him on board.
    
   He will follow up with a report on the recent Damascus bombing.  He wants
   to be paid for that also.
    
   Tony
   ----- Original Message -----
   From: bILAl reda
   To: atsullivan4321@comcast.net
   Sent: Saturday, December 18, 2004 6:18 PM
   Subject: Hello Tony Sullivan
   Syria must jettison 'hide-all' strategy
   By Ziad Haydar
   Special to The Daily Star
   Thursday, December 16, 2004
   Hello Tony, atsullivan4321@comcast.net  
   To proceed our previous conversation for stratfor request, I knew from
   very confident sources
    in Syria inside the Ba'th party that the party leadership is planning to
   Islamize the party
    to give the regime some Islamic and popular legitimacy on one hand, and
   to absorb the
    ascendence of the fundamentalist Islamism in Syria on the other hand, the
   vice-president
    Abdul-halim Khadam is leading this process which is very new and in its
   first step of
   planning. This info is very new and secret and this process is similar of
   what Saddam
    Hussein has done after the Gulf war when he brought the Wahabbi Salafi
   groups to Iraq
    to islamize the society in front of the Shi'ism in Iraq and later brought
   Abu Mus'ab
    al-Zarqawi and the Islamist fighters to fight the coalition forces.
   Please let's our
    correspondence be at this email and using my nickname on the bottom.
   All the best,
   Bilal,
   Now you can pursue the article :)
   Several months ago, while on a trip to several European countries, I had
   the opportunity of meeting a good number of Syrians and Arabs living
   abroad.
   Among the amazing questions I was asked, both as a Syrian and journalist
   living in Damascus, was whether the Mazzeh incidents were staged or real -
   in reference to the event that took place in that neighborhood of Damascus
   last April. An outbreak of gunfire resulted in the death of several
   people, and the detention of the alleged perpetrators. According to
   official reports, the incident was not the work of any political
   organization. The important point here, however, was not the incident
   itself, but rather the way Syrians living abroad perceived it. No one
   seemed to believe what official sources had said about what had happened. 
   Here is another example: When the Israeli Air Force bombed the area of Ain
   al-Saheb in October 2003, targeting a Palestinian refugee camp abandoned a
   year earlier, Israel television showed footage of fighters training in a
   facility to indicate that these were actual Palestinian fighters in the
   Ain al-Saheb camp. For those who saw the footage, its shortcomings were
   obvious as the pictures probably dated from the early 1980's. What was
   important though was that the Syrian authorities from the outset prevented
   anyone from getting close to the site and only offered an official
   explanation about the attack after a considerable delay. The Syrian
   ambassador in Spain, however, did speak about the incident, promising
   there would be an appropriate Syrian response. The Syrian Foreign Ministry
   hastened to deny that any official Syrian response had been given, only to
   issue words similar to the ambassador's eight days later.
   Meanwhile, not a single camera was allowed at the Ain al-Saheb location to
   record the aftermath of the attack, although it had taken place near a
   residential area. The official response was that "Syria has credibility"
   and, therefore, Western journalists on its territory should rely on that
   to answer their networks' questions about the camp and the results of the
   bombardment. Within this context, we can ask: Why doesn't the Syrian state
   ever test its credibility in the eyes of others?
   When the former Hamas official, Izzeddin Sheikh Khalil, was assassinated
   in Damascus approximately three months ago, a colleague from the BBC got
   in touch with me to say that rumors were circulating in Lebanon to the
   effect that Syria was behind the incident. The gist of the matter here is
   that the finger of accusation still pointed to Syria, even when it was the
   victim. And painful as it may be to say so, the Syrians themselves are
   often to blame for this.
   Why is this so? Why are the Syrians authorities rarely believed? The
   answer to such questions is easy, though we at the same time reject its
   implications. The reason is that in the past four years, successive Syrian
   information ministers have asked it without seeing the wisdom of analyzing
   the situation on the ground and gaining in-depth knowledge of journalistic
   ethics and of how journalists work. 
   When the Mazzeh incident took place, journalists complained of not being
   able to use their mobile telephones to report on what had taken place,
   since the mobile network virtually broke down. In addition, the
   neighborhood was entirely surrounded by police, there was a total
   information blackout, and for the first few hours after the incident, no
   official source could be reached. After the incident was over, when
   journalists finally were allowed to enter the area, the director of one
   news organization was attacked by a group of students (were they really
   students?) who accused him of being a spy and demanded that he be put on
   trial for wanting to damage Syria's image. The man's car was willfully
   damaged, until he managed to calm the crowd down and take their picture as
   they hailed the president.
   These were the first pictures of the incident out of Syria and, later on,
   Syrian television aired pictures of a weapons cache found in the area, but
   not before several hours had already elapsed. By that time, Israeli media
   had already reached the ears of the world and presented their own version
   of events. The confusion among the ranks of Syrian officials meant that
   they had lost a golden opportunity to tell their side of the story. When,
   a month later, the official results of the investigation were announced,
   they were unimpressive and redundant. Tardiness, bad timing and poor
   crisis mismanagement harm Syria's image internationally. The methods
   displayed by officials are liable on their own, even if unwittingly, to
   profoundly affect the image of any country.
   Syria still deals with many issues in an unjustifiably and
   incomprehensibly secretive manner. Syria's border police still look
   suspiciously at those entering or leaving the country and the word
   "forbidden" is the term most often on the mind of civil servants, whether
   civilian or military. Journalists are repeatedly told that it is
   "forbidden" to take pictures, "forbidden" to ask questions and sometimes
   even "forbidden" to be where the action is. And, if by chance
   representatives of the state are patient enough to hear people's
   complaints against what is "forbidden," their fallback answer to this is
   "we received no instructions to take action."
   As a further example of the difficulties faced by media, Syrian television
   monopolizes all unlicensed satellite transmissions, except in very rare
   cases. Added to that are the difficulties foreign reporters face when
   asking for a Syrian visa and when trying to extend their stay in the
   country. That's aside from the fact that their electronic equipment is
   impounded at Damascus airport and that they are constantly shadowed by an
   Information Ministry employee (allegedly there to assist them). The Syrian
   authorities behave as if they have more to hide than to share. 
   It is incumbent upon every Arab and foreign journalist, at least those who
   want to describe the reality in Syria to the outside world, to inform
   Syrian government officials that if they behave as if they have something
   to hide, this will only allow journalists to imagine the worst about what
   it is they are hiding. Even if an official is only trying to hide a tear
   in his suit, a journalist will imagine that he is concealing a bomb under
   his desk. Perhaps a bomb that might go off if that official ever speaks
   the truth.
   Ziad Haydar is a Damascus-based Syrian journalist. He wrote this
   commentary for THE DAILY STAR
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   Do you Yahoo!?
   Yahoo! Mail - Easier than ever with enhanced search. Learn more.
</description>
    <date>2004-12-19 00:34:17</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-15 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5368282_important-important-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>moore@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>harshey@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>atsullivan4321@comcast.net</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5377822</id>
    <title>Re: [Fwd: BLB]
</title>
    <description>So the boy also owns a BMW M3 convertible with no lien?  I'll check the
dead people.

On 1/5/2010 11:14 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
</description>
    <date>2010-01-05 17:20:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5377822_re-fwd-blb-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5378515</id>
    <title>Re: Things are clearing up
</title>
    <description>Works for me.

On 1/13/2010 1:43 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt; stick has forwarded me a few of the emails.  wow.  it all fits now.  can
&gt; we talk at say 2?
&gt;
&gt; Anya Alfano wrote:
&gt;   
&gt;&gt; I've figured out a few things with some new email access...weight
&gt;&gt; issues, scars, cancer, BB, etc.  Can we discuss on the phone again? 
&gt;&gt;     
</description>
    <date>2010-01-13 19:46:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5378515_re-things-are-clearing-up-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5382854</id>
    <title>Re: TrapWire (TW)
</title>
    <description> There are two types of information in there --
1. Sitrep Feeds
2. STRATFOR security series -- including the surveillance series and the
attack cycle series. 

The Sitrep feeds are current and update every day, they're just not
focused enough on security issues.  The security series pieces are
older, including the attack cycle one that's from 2006. 

I'm working with Kevin to make the sitreps more security focused, and
I've got a list of more recent security pieces that they can put onto
the site.  That said, Dan was clear that he'd like to keep the attack
cycle and surveillance series because they're very relevant, even if
they're a few years old.

On 9/23/10 8:24 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt; What has been feeding in?  How can stuff from 2006 be there? 
&gt;
&gt; Anya Alfano wrote:
&gt;&gt;  Fred,
&gt;&gt; I talked with Dan and Alicia over there a few days ago--they gave me a
&gt;&gt; visual presentation of the website and the sitrep feed.  The sitreps
&gt;&gt; aren't all focused on security at this point, but I've talked with Kevin
&gt;&gt; in our IT department and we think we've found a solution.  I'm planning
&gt;&gt; to feed some security portal content in there with a new specialized
&gt;&gt; query that we're creating for the latest version of the security portal,
&gt;&gt; as long as Kevin says that's really possible. 
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; For the "Resources" content, I'm going to provide them with a few
&gt;&gt; additional pieces to choose from that are more recent--then our editors
&gt;&gt; group will reformat so they can host it on their site. 
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; We're planning to regroup on this either tomorrow or early next week,
&gt;&gt; depending on their schedule.  Let me know if you have any other thoughts.
&gt;&gt; Thanks,
&gt;&gt; Anya
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; On 9/22/10 7:52 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt; Thank goodness
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; OMG
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; I need to see what we are pushing in.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; ------Original Message------
&gt;&gt;&gt; From: Beth Bronder
&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Fred Burton
&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Korena Zucha
&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Anya Alfano
&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Scott Stewart
&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Rodger Baker
&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: George Friedman
&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: Darryl O'Connor
&gt;&gt;&gt; ReplyTo: Beth Bronder
&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: Re: TrapWire (TW)
&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent: Sep 22, 2010 6:49 PM
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Fred -
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Anya is already working with someone from Mike's team to fix the content feed (to be security focused) which is something that came up in a meeting I had with Dan Burton from TW last week. We're on it.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Beth
&gt;&gt;&gt; ------Original Message------
&gt;&gt;&gt; From: Fred Burton
&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Beth Bronder
&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Korena Zucha
&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Anya Alfano
&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Scott Stewart
&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Rodger Baker
&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: George Friedman
&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: Darryl O'Connor
&gt;&gt;&gt; ReplyTo: Fred Burton
&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: TrapWire (TW)
&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent: Sep 22, 2010 7:31 PM
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Chatted with Mike M, the TW operator and former CIA crony.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; He said our feed was taking up 25% of the TW screens inside the client command posts and that the feedback they are getting is that the info being pushed in is more geo-pol centered vice tactical-security.  
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; How can we fix?  Who is auditing what is going in the pipe?
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Thanks
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent from my Verizon Wireless BlackBerry
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;&gt;&gt;     
</description>
    <date>2010-09-23 14:29:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5382854_re-trapwire-tw-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5390481</id>
    <title>Re: xxx
</title>
    <description>Would he be willing to give us the names of drugs and doses?  It's
possible she's on chemo for reasons that have nothing to do with cancer
and might not kill her. 

Regardless, let's assume she's dying--that still doesn't justify her
behavior. 

On 1/8/2010 2:38 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt; G claims he knows she is also on chemo; How I don't know.
&gt;
&gt; scott stewart wrote:
&gt;   
&gt;&gt; Could have had an appendectomy. 
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Remember that crazy imposter in Israel who wanted to kill Baker? Had an
&gt;&gt; emergency appendectomy and told Kahane Chai that he had been stabbed by an
&gt;&gt; Arab and needed the surgery because of that.  
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; -
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;     
</description>
    <date>2010-01-08 20:42:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5390481_re-xxx-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5391201</id>
    <title>Re: [Fwd: [Whips] Lauren out thru Sun]
</title>
    <description>   The messages she sent earlier this morning were sent using an Austin Road
   Runner residential connection. 

   On 1/21/2010 2:34 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     -------- Original Message --------

      Subject: [Whips] Lauren out thru Sun                                    
         Date: Thu, 21 Jan 2010 13:28:37 -0600                                
         From: Lauren Goodrich &lt;goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;                        
     Reply-To: Whips List &lt;whips@stratfor.com&gt;                                
           To: EurAsia AOR &lt;eurasia@stratfor.com&gt;, Whips List                 
               &lt;whips@stratfor.com&gt;                                           

     I have my cell &amp; laptop.
     I'll be on a plane from 2-9 cst &amp; then Sat 8pm-3am
     Viva la France.
     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     Stratfor
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com
     --
     Korena Zucha
     Briefer
     STRATFOR
     Office: 512-744-4082
     Fax: 512-744-4334
     Zucha@stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-01-21 20:36:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5391201_re-fwd-whips-lauren-out-thru-sun-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5394513</id>
    <title>Re: Abraxas Update
</title>
    <description> I think the TrapWire interface is nice, but I think there aren't many
reasons for anyone to actually come visit the site on a regular basis. 
The information (ironically with the exception of our sitrep feed)
doesn't seem to change very often.  I'm concerned that the sitreps
people are seeing now are turning people off on the content, rather than
drawing visitors to the site.  I think we can change that--I'd like to
give them a feed of information that I'm putting into the new security
portal that should be a very good match for the information their
clients are seeking. 

I'm not sure how many visitors they might have, but I would imagine the
number is fairly small.  I think their service is fairly high dollar
value, but with a fairly low number of actual clients. I can ask, if it
would be helpful. 

On 9/21/10 1:28 PM, Beth Bronder wrote:
&gt; This is perfect, Anya.  Thanks for connecting with them.  This will be a
&gt; much better representation of our content.  What did you think of
&gt; TrapWire?  Any idea how many people actually go to the site on a
&gt; daily/weekly basis???
&gt;
&gt; Beth Bronder
&gt; 301-641-1684
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt; From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com] 
&gt; Sent: Tuesday, September 21, 2010 11:49 AM
&gt; To: Beth Bronder
&gt; Subject: Abraxas Update
&gt;
&gt;  Beth,
&gt; I just finished speaking with Dan at Abraxas--he and one of his
&gt; marketing people did a WebEx demonstration of their site for me and
&gt; displayed our content.  I think we can make some changes pretty quickly
&gt; and I'm working with Kevin on the process for this. 
&gt;
&gt; For next steps --
&gt; 1. I'm talking with Kevin about how we can change the feed of sitreps in
&gt; the front page box--we're in agreement that we may give them fewer
&gt; sitreps that are more targeted toward their needs. 
&gt; 2. I'm going to look through our archives for some more updated pieces
&gt; that will fit into their resources page.  I'll share those with Dan
&gt; later this week so that he can choose which would fit best on their site.
&gt; 3. Once Dan has had a chance to view those new pieces and Kevin and I
&gt; have a better sitrep feed, I'll regroup with Dan to make the changes.
&gt;
&gt; Let me know if there are any other issues you'd like to be addressed on
&gt; this one.
&gt; Thanks,
&gt; Anya
&gt;
</description>
    <date>2010-09-21 19:36:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5394513_re-abraxas-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bbronder@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5394811</id>
    <title>Re: MGM Las Vegas
</title>
    <description>   Patrick was in talks with the Las Vegas Sands Corporation--they own the
   Venetian.  We provided them with a proposal for baseline security
   assessments and monthly analysis regarding their facilities in Vegas,
   Macau and Singapore, but they were ultimately rejected.  He may have also
   talked with the MGM Grand, but I don't recall any proposals for them. 

   On 9/23/10 6:29 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

     I seem recall Patrick in discussions w/MGM in Las Vegas about our
     services (PI) but our pricing was an issue. 
      
     I don't know why I remember that, but I do. 
      
     Regardless, the MGM corporate security director (with 34 properties in
     Vegas alone) is going to call me reference the oeprational effectiveness
     of TrapWire.   I understand the system has been great across the board,
     which I'm not surprised. 
      
     (Believe Steve Wynn owns that chain and I think he knows me through my
     book. I may have met him at a signing. Think I got to Wynn for Patrick,
     but can't remember.)
      
     Does anybody recall Patrick talking to MGM?    Just wanna know if I'm
     gonna get a bucket of crapola. 
      
     Thanks
      
      
      
      
      
      
</description>
    <date>2010-09-24 00:39:27</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5394811_re-mgm-las-vegas-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>oconnor@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bbronder@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5410254</id>
    <title>RE: Story
</title>
    <description>   Bilal,
    
   We have known for some time that he is dead.  I doubt you will find anyone
   willing to reward you for the details of his death but you never know...I
   do wish you the best.  As for Stratfor I have explained how we do business
   here and I am sorry it does not work for you.  Unfortunately you are a
   new source and I won't invest money in a unknown/unproven source. 
    
   Your future situation is as it has always been concerning Stratfor.  Once
   it has been determined that you have provided legitimate information that
   was difficult or impossible for us to get anywhere else, you begin your
   personal history with us.  I do not even seriously consider compensation
   until that has occurred.  
    
   I look forward to reviewing any information you have to submit at some
   future date.

   V/R Bob Rushing

     -----Original Message-----
     From: Bilalkinguk [mailto:bilalkinguk@yahoo.co.uk]
     Sent: Monday, January 17, 2005 1:23 AM
     To: tony; Bob Rushing
     Subject: Story

     I understand, but I am afraid if I give them my info about the story
     they would claim that they had this info as they said for the first
     story. I can tell them just one thing about that man, he has been
     killed. I will not give  more details before I know my reward and my
     future situation.
     Best
     Bilal

     tony &lt;atsullivan4321@comcast.net&gt; wrote:

       THey simply cannot do that until you have A:READY establidhed a
       credible
       record. I have already asked.

       As I told you before, they do not yet believe that the story you
       mention is
       credible. As I said before. That is the simple fact of the matter.

       ----- Original Message -----
       From: "Bilalkinguk"
       To: "tony"
       Sent: Sunday, January 16, 2005 2:36 PM
       Subject: Travel

       &gt; Thanks, I think if they are interested in that story
       &gt; they should pay my travel expenses asap to come there
       &gt; and provide it to them.
       &gt; Bilal
       &gt;&gt;
       &gt;&gt; I think now we are finally getting everything
       &gt;&gt; together.
       &gt;&gt;
       &gt;&gt; Hussein
       &gt;&gt; ----- Original Message -----
       &gt;&gt; From: "Bilalkinguk"
       &gt;&gt; To: "tony"
       &gt;&gt; Sent: Sunday, January 16, 2005 11:37 AM
       &gt;&gt; Subject: Re: Reminder
       &gt;&gt;
       &gt;&gt;
       &gt;&gt; &gt; Let's stay in touch through this email address.
       &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; From: "Bilalkinguk"
       &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; To: "tony"
       &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; Sent: Monday, January 10, 2005 12:40 PM
       &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; Subject: Re: Reminder
       &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt;
       &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt;
       &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; &gt; Okay looking forward to hear from you later
       &gt;&gt; today.
       &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; &gt;
       &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt;
       &gt;&gt; &gt;
       &gt;&gt;
       &gt; ___________________________________________________________
       &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; &gt; ALL-NEW Yahoo! Messenger - all new features
       &gt;&gt; -
       &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; even
       &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; more fun!
       &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; &gt; http://uk.messenger.yahoo.com
       &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; &gt;
       &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt;
       &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt;
       &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt;
       &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; &gt;
       &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; &gt;
       &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; &gt;
       &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; &gt;
       &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; &gt;
       &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; &gt;
       &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt;
       &gt;&gt; &gt;
       &gt;&gt;
       &gt; ___________________________________________________________
       &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; &gt; ALL-NEW Yahoo! Messenger - all new features -
       &gt;&gt; even
       &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; more fun!
       &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; &gt; http://uk.messenger.yahoo.com
       &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; &gt;
       &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt;
       &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt;
       &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt;
       &gt;&gt; &gt;
       &gt;&gt; &gt;
       &gt;&gt; &gt;
       &gt;&gt; &gt;
       &gt;&gt; &gt;
       &gt;&gt; &gt;
       &gt;&gt;
       &gt; ___________________________________________________________
       &gt;&gt; &gt; ALL-NEW Yahoo! Messenger - all new features - even
       &gt;&gt; more fun!
       &gt;&gt; &gt; http://uk.messenger.yahoo.com
       &gt;&gt; &gt;
       &gt;&gt;
       &gt;&gt;
       &gt;&gt;
       &gt;
       &gt;
       &gt;
       &gt;
       &gt; __________________________________
       &gt; Do you Yahoo!?
       &gt; Yahoo! Mail - now with 250MB free storage. Learn more.
       &gt; http://info.mail.yahoo.com/mail_250
       &gt;

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     Do you Yahoo!?
     Yahoo! Mail - Helps protect you from nasty viruses.
</description>
    <date>2005-01-17 16:56:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-15 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5410254_re-story-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>harshey@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>rushing@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>atsullivan4321@comcast.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bilalkinguk@yahoo.co.uk</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5410884</id>
    <title>RE: INSIGHT -RUSSIA - head of MAJOR criminal group arrested... + chaika craziness
</title>
    <description>   Can you get more granular data on the safe room construction?
    
   Also, what MNC's or industries could be affected by this move?
    
   If this OC figure controls the ports (per Peter), what kinds of kickbacks
   could be taking place with outbound containers? 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Tuesday, September 04, 2007 6:11 AM
   To: 'Lauren Goodrich'; 'Secure List'; 'EurAsia Team'; 'George Friedman';
   'scott stewart'
   Subject: RE: INSIGHT -RUSSIA - head of MAJOR criminal group arrested... +
   chaika craziness
   What kind of crime did he control? 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Monday, September 03, 2007 10:50 PM
   To: 'Secure List'; 'EurAsia Team'; George Friedman; Fred Burton; scott
   stewart
   Subject: INSIGHT -RUSSIA - head of MAJOR criminal group arrested... +
   chaika craziness
   [**more coming on all of this, I could only chat briefly with Chaika...
   pls keep the fact that he gave us this info under wraps, but we can use
   the info other than that]
   I'm leaning towards the fact that Putin is really cracking down on any
   power player that doesn't play in his arena... and that the Tambov Clan
   was soooo powerful and didn't listen to Putin as much as he wanted. This
   is a HUGE nab for Chaika (congrats to him)... also a good note for Chaika
   to leave on (he's quitting the Kremlin, so he says... and that is
   classified info for the next week until I get the green light to go
   forward on that huge Kremlin re-shuffle)
   TAMBOV CRIMINAL GROUP
    
   The head of the Tambov Criminal Group Vladimir Barsukov was arrested on
   this past week by the Prosecutor General Chaika's group. Barsukov, also
   known as Kumarin, based his group out of St. Petersburg.
    
   He has many old friends within the inner circle, especially Alexei
   Mordashov (Severstal) and Vladimir Yakunin (railways minister). Barsurkov
   was a person that many in Russia tolerated because of his connections and
   the fact that he was in charge of the highly powerful Tambov gang. But
   Putin considered him a relic of a by-gone era and was eager to get rid of
   him, though he was instrumental during Putin's earlier years. Putin
   himself was "familiar" with Barsukov when he worked in the St. Petersburg
   mayoral office.
    
   The entire operation to bring him down was orchestrated by Chaika along
   with FSB head Nikolai Patrushev and Interior Min Rashid Nurgaliev, though
   many tried to stop him-especially Yakunin and Mordashov. [sidenote:
   Yakunin and Chaika have never been close and after the last attack on the
   train from Moscow to St. Petersburg, the security forces turned to Chaika,
   not Yakunin, for information and cooperation.]
    
   Barsukov was in a safe room and it took hours to pry him open from his
   home. They had a huge amount of OMAN police forces with them, knowing that
   this could have become really gross really fast.
    
   One of the breaking points was the fact that Barsukov wanted to gain
   control over many oil infrastructure assets in St. Petersburg... Chaika
   said that this was shocking because no real criminal organizations dare to
   take claim on energy infrastructure. The joke Chaika said was, "they may
   be crime bosses, but they don't want to mess with Surkov, Sechin,
   Bogdanchikov or others or else they may learn what real pressure and
   tactics looks like."
    
   The arrest of Barsurkov is expected to create a few repercussions... 1)
   there will be a power struggle within the Tambov clan [I need to break
   down what they control, can the CT team help?] 2) Chaika and others expect
   atleast some retaliation, though they feel confident in their infiltration
   of the organization to head most of it off 3) Yakunin and Mordashov will
   really be after Chaika, Nurgaliev and Patrushev... Chaika isn't too
   worried about this, but says that Yakunin is really petty about
   retaliation.
    
   OTHER ISSUES...
    
   Chaika said he has already been under a lot of heat because of the
   Politkovskaya arrests. He said that he would rather not tell me about the
   "Chechen mastermind" they arrested. I asked if this was because he was not
   really a mastermind and Chaika said that "many things needed to be tied up
   as we head into this election and the end of Putin's reign." [I know this
   is strange, but he kept saying things like, "Ivanov needs to have control
   over the situation he's about to enter into.... Ivanov is known for his
   distance from such situations, so they need to be wrapped up."]
</description>
    <date>2007-09-04 17:07:05</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5410884_re-insight-russia-head-of-major-criminal-group-arrested.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5411148</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT -RUSSIA - head of MAJOR criminal group arrested... +
 chaika craziness
</title>
    <description>   Underground fuel trade...
   I just have a bad feeling on this.
   But if the FSB is planning on really locking down St. Petes to make sure a
   full-on mob war doesn't break out this could get be interesting.
   Eurasia team is breaking down more on the Tambov Clan and I'm working on a
   few more sources.

   Fred Burton wrote:

     What kind of crime did he control? 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Monday, September 03, 2007 10:50 PM
     To: 'Secure List'; 'EurAsia Team'; George Friedman; Fred Burton; scott
     stewart
     Subject: INSIGHT -RUSSIA - head of MAJOR criminal group arrested... +
     chaika craziness
     [**more coming on all of this, I could only chat briefly with Chaika...
     pls keep the fact that he gave us this info under wraps, but we can use
     the info other than that]
     I'm leaning towards the fact that Putin is really cracking down on any
     power player that doesn't play in his arena... and that the Tambov Clan
     was soooo powerful and didn't listen to Putin as much as he wanted. This
     is a HUGE nab for Chaika (congrats to him)... also a good note for
     Chaika to leave on (he's quitting the Kremlin, so he says... and that is
     classified info for the next week until I get the green light to go
     forward on that huge Kremlin re-shuffle)
     TAMBOV CRIMINAL GROUP
      
     The head of the Tambov Criminal Group Vladimir Barsukov was arrested on
     this past week by the Prosecutor General Chaika's group. Barsukov, also
     known as Kumarin, based his group out of St. Petersburg.
      
     He has many old friends within the inner circle, especially Alexei
     Mordashov (Severstal) and Vladimir Yakunin (railways minister).
     Barsurkov was a person that many in Russia tolerated because of his
     connections and the fact that he was in charge of the highly powerful
     Tambov gang. But Putin considered him a relic of a by-gone era and was
     eager to get rid of him, though he was instrumental during Putin's
     earlier years. Putin himself was "familiar" with Barsukov when he worked
     in the St. Petersburg mayoral office.
      
     The entire operation to bring him down was orchestrated by Chaika along
     with FSB head Nikolai Patrushev and Interior Min Rashid Nurgaliev,
     though many tried to stop him-especially Yakunin and Mordashov.
     [sidenote: Yakunin and Chaika have never been close and after the last
     attack on the train from Moscow to St. Petersburg, the security forces
     turned to Chaika, not Yakunin, for information and cooperation.]
      
     Barsukov was in a safe room and it took hours to pry him open from his
     home. They had a huge amount of OMAN police forces with them, knowing
     that this could have become really gross really fast.
      
     One of the breaking points was the fact that Barsukov wanted to gain
     control over many oil infrastructure assets in St. Petersburg... Chaika
     said that this was shocking because no real criminal organizations dare
     to take claim on energy infrastructure. The joke Chaika said was, "they
     may be crime bosses, but they don't want to mess with Surkov, Sechin,
     Bogdanchikov or others or else they may learn what real pressure and
     tactics looks like."
      
     The arrest of Barsurkov is expected to create a few repercussions... 1)
     there will be a power struggle within the Tambov clan [I need to break
     down what they control, can the CT team help?] 2) Chaika and others
     expect atleast some retaliation, though they feel confident in their
     infiltration of the organization to head most of it off 3) Yakunin and
     Mordashov will really be after Chaika, Nurgaliev and Patrushev... Chaika
     isn't too worried about this, but says that Yakunin is really petty
     about retaliation.
      
     OTHER ISSUES...
      
     Chaika said he has already been under a lot of heat because of the
     Politkovskaya arrests. He said that he would rather not tell me about
     the "Chechen mastermind" they arrested. I asked if this was because he
     was not really a mastermind and Chaika said that "many things needed to
     be tied up as we head into this election and the end of Putin's reign."
     [I know this is strange, but he kept saying things like, "Ivanov needs
     to have control over the situation he's about to enter into.... Ivanov
     is known for his distance from such situations, so they need to be
     wrapped up."]
</description>
    <date>2007-09-04 15:56:37</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5411148_re-insight-russia-head-of-major-criminal-group-arrested.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5411580</id>
    <title>Re: Fw: Web query
</title>
    <description>   Is he one of the confederation partners?

   On 10/21/10 7:33 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     Any idea?

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Michael Maness &lt;michael.maness@abraxasapps.com&gt;
     Date: Thu, 21 Oct 2010 19:26:26 -0400
     To: Fred Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Web query

     Fred -- Have received couple queries from this guy for marketing
     collateral on TrapWire etc. I usually ignore this loose cannon requests,
     but this guy keeps citing STRATFOR as a contact. Do you know him?

      

     From: Radu Chirculescu [mailto:chircu2k@yahoo.co.uk]
     Sent: Thursday, October 21, 2010 6:16 PM
     To: Michael Maness
     Subject: Re: Your request for information on TrapWire
     Importance: High

      

         Dear Mr. Maness,

            I find very important to build and keep an constant bridge
     between Romania and it's ally, especially regarding security matters by
     keeping in mind the current geopolitics. We will inform you about our
     NGO's future evolution (CRES &amp; CCPB) and if possible we will desire to
     attend to any open and public presentations about your products in the
     UK and/or United States. As soon as all the aspects will be clear I will
     inform you and Stratfor about our current status.

         For thousands years history did not gave us(Romania) too much rest
     and peace and the current global situation proves it once more.        
         Best regards,

         Radu Chirculescu
         Bucharest, ROMANIA

      

     -----Original Message-----

     From: info@abraxasapps.com [mailto:info@abraxasapps.com]

     Sent: Thursday, October 21, 2010 5:52 PM

     To: abraxasapps.com Info Request

     Cc: marketing@abraxasapps.com

     Subject: Web site inquiry

      

     First Name - Radu

     Last Name - Chirculescu

     Title - Mr

     Company - ngo to be developed

     Street Address - Luterana 1 Ap.47

     City - Bucharest

     State - Ilfov

     Zip/Postal Code - 010161

     Country - Romania

     Work Email - chircu2k@yahoo.co.uk

     Phone - 0040721717447

      

     Referred by -

     Stratfor. I will develop the Romanian Center for Ethics and Strategies
     and The Center for Research and Protection against Bioterrorism. The
     current status is legal registering approval. In 2 weeks to be
     accomplished. Therefor we would need info for products to be used and
     presented in the close future. Best regards, Radu Chirculescu.

      

     I am interested in: Corporate Brochure, TrapWire Brochure, TrapWire
     Demo, CFATS Brochure, SAW Brochure, DDER Brochure, Please Contact Me

      

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     NOTICE: This email message and all attachments transmitted with it are
     intended solely for the use of the addressees and may contain legally
     privileged, protected or confidential information. If you have received
     this message in error, please notify the sender immediately by email
     reply and please delete this message from your computer and destroy any
     copies.
</description>
    <date>2010-10-22 01:42:37</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5411580_re-fw-web-query-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5411655</id>
    <title>Re: Lauren's Moscow Trip
</title>
    <description>   Here is my tentative list, though I'm still adding more...

   Yuri Chaika - Prosecutor General
   Oleg Deripaska - oligarch &amp; head of Rusal
   Vladislav Surkov - aid to Medvedev
   Marina and Viktor Kalashnikov - dissidents
   Ellen Pinchuk - Bloomberg head
   Brad Cook - Bloomberg chief
   Alex Berezin - RIA Novosti
   Crystal Stutes - US Embassy Political Section
   David Falcon- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi
   Alexander Bogachyov - Bke Drilling
   Vladimir Drebentsov - BP Russia
   Talgat Turumbaev - Bank Kazakhstan
   Alina Shlykova - ExxonMobil Russia
   Dimitiy Semenov - Gazprom
   Sergei Kupriyanov - Gazprom Information
   Alexander Bespalov - Gazprom
   Steven Dashevsky - Aton Capital
   Vladimir Katunin - Aton Capital
   Anton Khlopkov - PIR Analysis
   Nakita Sergeyev - Russian Institute for Strategic Studies (thinktank)
   Valeri Pervukhin - Institute of Energy Strategy (thinktank)
   Andrei Kuprov - Mitsui
   Fernando Martinez Fresneda Moreno - Repsol
   Roman Shkoller - Russia Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs
   Anatoli Gubarev - Shtokman Development
   Gennady Zaitsev - Sakhalin Development
   Bayramgeldy Nedirov - Turkmen Energy Ministry

   Fred Burton wrote:

     Do you have a list of people you are meeting with just in case? :)

     -----Original Message-----
     From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Monday, December 01, 2008 10:53 AM
     To: Fred Burton
     Subject: Re: Lauren's Moscow Trip

     Lauren Goodrich wrote:

       Trip: Dec 6-13
       _Flight to Moscow on Dec 6-7: _
       Austin-Atlanta #5860 - 1049am-155pm
       Atlanta-Moscow #46 - 440pm- 1120am (Sunday) _Flight from Moscow Dec
       13:_
       Moscow- Atlanta #47 - 110pm-505pm
       Atlanta-Austin #1891 - 653pm-830pm

       _Hotel_: Kempinski hotel on Red Square

       My Cell # - 281.460.9382
       My Skype # - 281.968.0499 (has voicemail) My Skype name - l-goodrich

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2008-12-01 18:16:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5411655_re-lauren-s-moscow-trip-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zeihan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5412158</id>
    <title>Re: Happy Holidays
</title>
    <description>   Hey Izabella!
   You are actually free to take what you want over the holidays between now
   and the new year...
   but the 'for sure' days off are Dec 25-26 &amp; Jan 1-2.
   Just let us know what you want to take off and we'll work around it.
   Please take off that time in Jan &amp; Feb to see your husband!! Send him our
   love and we are so glad he is safe and able to come home. Enjoy your time
   together!
   I am in Scotland right now (my fiance's christmas) and my christmas is in
   Jan during the orthodox ones, when I'll spend them with my own family.
   Have a wonderful holidays.
   Lauren

   Izabella Sami wrote:

     Hi Lauren,
      
     Hope all is well and you are looking forward to a nice rest during the
     coming holidays.
     There are a few things I would like to ask you before you guys 'shut
     down':
      
     1. What are the non-working days for Strafor (Dec 24/25 and Jan 1..)?
      
     2. I will be visiting my mother in Budapest from Dec 24 to Jan 03 but
     will be able to work as usual.
      
     3. From January 10  to February 10 I will be in the U.S. and Canada, due
     to family affairs. I live alone in Skopje, while my husband is working
     for the US government for some time now (in Kabul for the past two
     years) and he has some meetings in Washington D.C., then he will be free
     - on holiday - and our daughter is getting married in San Francisco, so
     we will be there from 14 to 28 January; then off to Toronto to take care
     of our nephews fro two weeks (their grandma will be away).
     Unfortunately I will not be able to work, but will be able to follow
     more or less what is going on in the world.
     Hope this is all right with you and will not cause any significant
     problem...
      
     Pls let me know.
      
     Wishing you and the entire team happy holidays!
      
     Cheers,
      
     Izabella

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2008-12-22 06:08:29</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5412158_re-happy-holidays-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zsami@telekabel.net.mk</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5413843</id>
    <title>Public Policy Question for Coca-Cola
</title>
    <description>   Coca-Cola just sent me a long list of questions regarding PETA/Animal
   Activism and the upcoming Olympics in Vancouver--I've pasted the questions
   below.  I'm not entirely clear on how much we can task the public policy
   group at this point--is there any guidance you can give me on that front? 
   Coke has asked for a short teleconference with one of our analysts to
   discuss this issue--is that something I could ask Kathy, Bart or Joe to
   do, or would that be off the table at this point?  Stick, are these
   questions something that you have a handle on, if we aren't able to get
   info from the policy folks? 

   Any thoughts or guidance would be helpful. Thanks, Anya

   Questions---
   -- How many PETA supporters are there in Canada?
   -- How many of these are inclined toward activism?
   -- To what extent will US-based PETA supporters travel to Canada to
   support activism?
   -- What is PETA's methodology for planning and executing activism?
    (Understanding this better would certainly help us to recognize
   indicators should they appear.)
   -- To what extent is PETA in Canada linked to PETA in the US or elsewhere?
   -- To what extent are the actions of PETA in one country controlled by an
   oversight board/governing body?
   -- To what extent could non-PETA hangers-on (such as anarchists or ALF
   supporters) get involved in any protest activity?
</description>
    <date>2009-06-02 16:56:13</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5413843_public-policy-question-for-coca-cola-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5413863</id>
    <title>Re: Public Policy Question for Coca-Cola
</title>
    <description>   Stick, do you have access to email addresses?  I won't be able to get it
   until tomorrow.

   Bart and I talked and he's willing to help.  I put one of our interns on
   the search for details--Bart and I will discuss what our intern has
   collected on Thursday and decide if we need to do more research, or if the
   research and Bart's existing knowledge is enough to handle the request. 
   I'll keep you updated on how it turns out. 

   Fred Burton wrote:

     I know Flanagan, pls send me his email and I'll probe around. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Tuesday, June 02, 2009 1:50 PM
     To: Fred Burton
     Cc: 'scott stewart'
     Subject: Re: Public Policy Question for Coca-Cola
     Kevin Flanagan

     Fred Burton wrote:

       Who is RSO Ottawa?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
       Sent: Tuesday, June 02, 2009 9:56 AM
       To: Fred Burton; scott stewart
       Subject: Public Policy Question for Coca-Cola
       Coca-Cola just sent me a long list of questions regarding PETA/Animal
       Activism and the upcoming Olympics in Vancouver--I've pasted the
       questions below.  I'm not entirely clear on how much we can task the
       public policy group at this point--is there any guidance you can give
       me on that front?  Coke has asked for a short teleconference with one
       of our analysts to discuss this issue--is that something I could ask
       Kathy, Bart or Joe to do, or would that be off the table at this
       point?  Stick, are these questions something that you have a handle
       on, if we aren't able to get info from the policy folks? 

       Any thoughts or guidance would be helpful. Thanks, Anya

       Questions---
       -- How many PETA supporters are there in Canada?
       -- How many of these are inclined toward activism?
       -- To what extent will US-based PETA supporters travel to Canada to
       support activism?
       -- What is PETA's methodology for planning and executing activism?
        (Understanding this better would certainly help us to recognize
       indicators should they appear.)
       -- To what extent is PETA in Canada linked to PETA in the US or
       elsewhere?
       -- To what extent are the actions of PETA in one country controlled by
       an oversight board/governing body?
       -- To what extent could non-PETA hangers-on (such as anarchists or ALF
       supporters) get involved in any protest activity?
</description>
    <date>2009-06-02 21:25:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5413863_re-public-policy-question-for-coca-cola-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5413900</id>
    <title>Re: [TACTICAL] China - Foxconn suicides?
</title>
    <description>   Thanks Jen!

   On 5/12/2010 8:23 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

     I am working on that.

     Anya Alfano wrote:

       Do we have any more insight about what's going on in these cases? 

       -------- Original Message --------

        Subject: [CT] CHINA/TAWIAN/SECURITY - Another Foxconn employee        
                 commits suicide in southern China city                       
           Date: Wed, 12 May 2010 02:02:06 -0500 (CDT)                        
           From: Chris Farnham &lt;chris.farnham@stratfor.com&gt;                   
       Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                                     
             To: os &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                         
             CC: eastasia &lt;eastasia@stratfor.com&gt;, ct &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;       

       Some one offing these people? Spying for Taiwan or another country,
       maybe? [chris]
       http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2010-05/12/c_13290149.htm

       Another Foxconn employee commits suicide in southern China city        

       English.news.cn   2010-05-12 [IMG]Feedback[IMG]Print[IMG]RSS[IMG][IMG] 
       14:14:06                     

       SHENZHEN, May 12 (Xinhua) -- Another employee with Foxconn Technology
       Group has died after falling from a rented apartment in the southern
       city of Shenzhen Tuesday evening, company sources and local police
       said Wednesday.

       This is the sixth death by suicide from falling of a Foxconn employee,
       two other employees have been hurt after trying to kill themselves.
       All the cases have happened since the beginning of the year.

       The deceased, a 24-year-old woman surnamed Zhu, died at around 7:00
       p.m. Tuesday. A native of central China's Henan Province, she joined
       Foxconn in August 2009.

       Zhu was on leave when she jumped out of her rented apartment at
       Shuidouxincun of Longhua Neighborhood. Her mother was visiting Zhu in
       Shenzhen after traveling down from her hometown in Henan.

       Company sources said Foxconn, a unit of Taiwan electronics giant Hon
       Hai, was very concerned about the death. But no formal company
       statement had been issued yet out of respect for the deceased and her
       family, the sources said.

       The police are investigating into the death.

       No further details are presently available.

       The most recent death until Zhu's, was a 23-year-old male Foxconn
       employee on March 29. He threw himself from the 14th floor of a
       dormitory building in the Longhua Industrial Park of Shenzhen.

       Foxconn is the foremost provider of joint-design, joint-development,
       manufacturing, assembly and after-sales services to global computer,
       communications and consumer electronics companies.

       In its Longhua manufacturing base in Shenzhen, Foxconn employs more
       than 300,000 workers.

       --

       Chris Farnham
       Watch Officer/Beijing Correspondent , STRATFOR
       China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
       Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-05-12 14:53:13</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5413900_re-tactical-china-foxconn-suicides-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5416134</id>
    <title>Re: [TACTICAL] Nigeria - U.S. grants 34 ex-Nigerian militants visasforprofessional
 training
</title>
    <description>   Our country doesn't seem to care that actions have long-term
   consequences. 

   On 4/14/11 8:36 AM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     Obama..its a black thing

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Anya Alfano &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: Thu, 14 Apr 2011 07:35:07 -0500 (CDT)
     To: &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: [TACTICAL] Nigeria - U.S. grants 34 ex-Nigerian militants
     visas forprofessional training
     Kamran can't come in the country, but 34 militants who've spent their
     lives blowing up pipelines, stealing fuel and carrying out political
     assassinations are welcome, so we can entrust Nigeria's future to them. 
     Killing me. 

     On 4/14/11 8:31 AM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

       Brilliant

       Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Anya Alfano &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
       Sender: tactical-bounces@stratfor.com
       Date: Thu, 14 Apr 2011 07:20:48 -0500 (CDT)
       To: 'TACTICAL'&lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
       ReplyTo: Tactical &lt;tactical@stratfor.com&gt;
       Subject: [TACTICAL] Nigeria - U.S. grants 34 ex-Nigerian militants
       visas for professional training
       Just FYI, and a little bit of wow.

       -------- Original Message --------

        Subject: [OS] NIGERIA/US/GV/CT - U.S. grants 34 ex-Nigerian militants 
                 visas for professional training                              
           Date: Thu, 14 Apr 2011 07:10:34 -0500                              
           From: Clint Richards &lt;clint.richards@stratfor.com&gt;                 
       Reply-To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                
             To: The OS List &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                

       U.S. grants 34 ex-Nigerian militants visas for professional training
       English.news.cn   2011-04-14 18:24:05     FeedbackPrintRSS
       http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-04/14/c_13829127.htm

       ABUJA, April 14 (Xinhua) -- The U.S. Embassy in Nigeria has issued
       visas to 34 former Niger Delta militants to study courses related to
       oil and gas and engineering, an official has said.

       Kingsley Kuku, the special assistant to the president on Niger Delta
       affairs, said in Abuja on Wednesday at a meeting with the former
       militants from the region that some 4,000 militants had benefited from
       the various training programs since the government gave them amnesty.

       The Nigerian government, under the late Musa Yar'Adua proclaimed
       amnesty for the militants in 2009 in which 20,192 of them surrendered
       their arms.

       He said the 34 selected former militants would leave for the U.
       S.shortly after the general elections.

       Kuku said he was meeting with the former militants to inform them of
       the success so far recorded in the amnesty program.

       He said there had been a tremendous achievement in the implementation
       of the program which he said had boosted oil production in the area in
       recent times.

       The special assistant called on the former militants to regard the
       program as a rare opportunity for the people of the region in areas of
       training and various skills programs in the country and abroad.

       He urged them to support President Goodluck Jonathan in Saturday 's
       presidential election to sustain the program.
</description>
    <date>2011-04-14 14:51:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-20 10:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5416134_re-tactical-nigeria-u-s-grants-34-ex-nigerian-militants.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5417207</id>
    <title>New-tern (Aaron) reading list...
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2009-03-04 17:07:12</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5417207_new-tern-aaron-reading-list-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>nathan.hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kristen.cooper@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>aaron.moore@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/126/126616_GV Client List for Team.doc</path><size>44032</size><md5></md5><sha1>3cb219e751d88534b8296db27ea760bd858c2056</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/174/174265_Team Eurasia 090302.xls</path><size>32256</size><md5></md5><sha1>ae61ec2942e585ff4eebb25257285b66f2f30e42</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/174/174276_FSU Parliaments.doc</path><size>22528</size><md5></md5><sha1>8de928068b1fb1cfd631a25fb5e0e824f3ddd623</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/174/174277_FSU sites.doc</path><size>46080</size><md5></md5><sha1>782c029b6bb316d660abf800e649bd580506ee07</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5417422</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - CHECHNYA - lots of scary shit....
</title>
    <description>   **okay... I color coded as far as topic... green = inner Chechen shit ;
   purple =  scary Islam/Chechen shit ; blue = Western/bigger involvement????

   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: One of the top within the Kremlin circles, though from
   Surkov's clan.  He's the real deal.
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
    
   Kadyrov's leash is too loose in most people's (including my) opinions. His
   list of assassinations outside of Chechnya is growing...
    
   -       Feb 5 - Gilani Shepiev - murdered with three bullets in his head
   as he returned home in the north-west of Moscow. a Baykal pistol with a
   silencer at the scene of the crime meaning that the killing was the work
   of a professional. Shepiev was well known in Chechnya. Having fought the
   Russian army during the first conflict in 1994-96, he joined A. Kadyrov as
   one of his bodyguards at the beginning of the century. He then became
   deputy mayor of Grozny where he was responsible for security. Seriously
   wounded during a settling of scores in 2006 he then stepped back even
   though officially he still counted among the leaders of the Chechen
   presidency's counter-terrorist unit.
   -       Jan 13 - Umar Israilov - (which we've discussed) was killed in
   Vienna
   -       Sept 24 - Ruslan Yamadaev - (which we've discussed) the "Hero of
   Russia" and former parliamentarian.
    
   All these men had in common the fact that they had both broken off with
   the R. Kadyrov, so their elimination does make sense to some extent.
    
   Except for the fact that in exchange for total freedom in Chechnya - with
   very generous subsidises - R. Kadyrov has known to keep Chechnya's
   problems and their possible violent solutions confined within the
   Republic. Moscow has kept a blind eye to the nature of the Kadyrov regime
   on the condition that Chechen would continue to keep its business to
   itself.
    
   The problem is that, after having granted Kadyrov everything he asked for
   -including the break-up of S. Yamadaev's Vostok battalion - the Kremlin
   has scarcely any control left over the master of Grozny. Kadyrov does
   still feel he has a commitment to both Putin and Surkov. But that
   commitment is being tested right now.
    
   Ever since Kadyrov opened that enormous mosque in Nov and then his trip to
   Saudi in December he has be acting very strange. It seems to the Kremlin
   powers that he is drifting towards an increasingly rigid form of Islam.
   This is seen in the ridiculous new liquor laws in Chechnya too. That mixed
   with his constant griping that he is not happy with his simple and small
   Russian territory (meaning he either wants independence or to be granted
   ruling over some of the other Caucasus states). Now the concerns are that
   Bukhari Barayev &amp; Akhmed Zakayev could be returning to Chechnya.
    
   Barayev has visited Chechnya, but never stays long. Barayev does not have
   much power left inside of Chechnya from his former days, especially anyone
   inside of Chechnya linked to AQ (those types are pretty much wiped out by
   now), but he does still hold a few Taliban or AQ (we think) links inside
   ME and SA (Saudi and Afgh specifically). It is nothing like he had in the
   90s, but still a small concern. Barayev and Kadyrov have not gotten along
   in the past, especially since Kadyrov killed a bunch of Barayev's men (and
   family).
    
   Zakayev is another story, esp since he is on Russia's wanted list to be
   extradited from UK. But Zakayev has been chatting with many parties about
   reviving the militant movement within Chechnya. He has briefly (and
   secretly) chatted on the phone with Kadyrov. Zakayev has been in much
   contact with UK intelligence, which raises our suspicions.
    
   There is a concern about the US being behind such a resurgence of militant
   Islam in Chechnya. Putting the puzzle pieces together, the US has had the
   opportunity to influence Barayev, Zakayev and have Saudi chat with
   Kadyrov. We have always assumed that Kadyrov's subsidies for being loyal
   were enough, but those are now in question.
    
   At this time, we do not see a blowback from Afghanistan escalating the
   situation between the Chechens and the Russians, but we are considering
   the US escalating the situation should Russia not cooperate with their
   little schemes in Afghanistan.
    
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-02-18 06:44:08</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5417422_insight-chechnya-lots-of-scary-shit-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5417564</id>
    <title>Sam Kent &amp; Halliburton 
</title>
    <description>   **for internal use only pls
    
   I had lunch yesterday in Houston with former-Federal Judge Sam Kent (the
   first Federal Judge found guilty of serious crimes in the US) and he told
   me why he thinks he was prosecuted.
    
   For those who haven't followed this, he was found guilty on perjury &amp;
   sexual misconduct. Yes, he slept with those two women, but it was
   consensual. Actually, they were old affairs and long over.
    
   What Sam said was that "isn't is strange that the Justice Department
   begins sniffing around for dirt to throw at me just weeks after I ruled a
   heavy case against Halliburton. Then a small set of affairs turn into an
   untrue situation and then spun up into an unprecedented case against a
   Federal Judge."  
    
   Of course, I told him he was nuts to rule anything against Halliburton.
   I also told him that this sounds like a John Grisham plotline.
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-03-08 22:11:04</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5417564_sam-kent-and-halliburton-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5424835</id>
    <title>[Eurasia] EUROPE ANALYTICAL GUIDANCE - TIER 3
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2009-06-19 00:30:29</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 18:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5424835_-eurasia-europe-analytical-guidance-tier-3-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>nate.hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/125/125073_EUROPE ANALYTICAL GUIDANCE - Third Tier.doc</path><size>50688</size><md5></md5><sha1>60ffbc566f09168f5b1a5ebe39ca92f023b9dda6</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5426952</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - CANVAS: On Iran
</title>
    <description>   So no real answer on their particular involvement in Iran situation.

   Marko Papic wrote:

     I have translated the email that leader of CANVAS sent to me on Iran.
     Most of it is just his musings on the revolution. He gets into some
     pretty tactical thoughts at the end, about what the revolutionary
     movement must now evolve into in order to be effective. Remember, these
     guys are expert revolutionaries, so he is getting into some pretty
     theoretical stuff on what is needed.

     However, he has opened communication with us on this and has given me
     contacts of CANVAS's Middle East crew. He is asking for comments on his
     thoughts below and any questions we may have. So I am particularly
     forwarding this email to Reva and Kamran and want you guys to think of
     "what now" questions that I can send to CANVAS and their crew.

     PUBLICATION: If needed
     SOURCE: SR501
     ATTRIBUTION: N/A
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Founder/Leader CANVAS (Serbian NGO for revolution
     export... ex-OTPOR)
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: 4
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: A
     DISTRIBUTION: MESA
     SPECIAL HANDLING: Marko/Meredith

     Dear Marko,

     We had a series of meetings about the situation in Iran, while the
     revolution was going an and afterwards. I don't know what "comrade"
     Ackerman is doing in Bahrain, we have until now worked with Iranians in
     other places, mostly with women rights groups and legal professionals
     but also with emigres, so we have solid sources and our "rough" analysis
     would go something like this:

      

     -         If we place Iran in Serbian context than the 1992
     anti-Milosevic protests would be a much better parallel than the 96/97
     [MP: note... the 1992 protests COMPLETELY collapsed] simply because
     following the 1996 stolen elections the opposition managed to force
     Sloba in February 1997 to accept their win and get leadership in 30
     districts/cities, therefore gaining important material resources and
     learning what it took to lead government office, not to mention that it
     afforded the opposition "space" in local media which eventually turned
     to be crucial in 2000.

     -         From the view of "Pillars of Support", standpoint that
     Stratfor has already looked at in detail, the main crack has already
     happened in the most important pillar, and that is the Supreme Council.
     Although Moussavi and Rafsanjani have not (as the American media
     expected them to) stepped up when crackdown began, fearing on one part
     for their own safety, conflict and division between the two streams of
     thought are going to continue to simmer. As evidence of this we have the
     resignation of one of the ministers and negotiators for the nuclear
     program, probably the most vital point of Iranian foreign politics.

     -         On the foreign scene Iran is going into a defensive. On the
     regional level, Lebanese Hezbollah has decided to stay in opposition and
     is losing part of support of Iranian security apparatus, considering
     that most of the security apparatus is now concentrating internally.
     Will this lead to a long period of stability in Lebanon/Syria remains to
     be seen. A-Dog's foreign policy game in which the Cold War like role of
     Putin/Russians was to "bring Iran to the table" while US "sells" Central
     Europe and leaves Russia to strengthen in Georgia and Ukraine is now out
     the window. We also can't discount the effect that the regolution has
     had on American public opinion, particularly among the Democrats for
     whom Chavez and A-Dogg were in part "robin hood" characters that
     antagonized the Bush administration. Now, Democrats are unified
     following the revolution and blood shed behind the concept of supporting
     pro-democratic movements in Iran.

     -         As for the concept of Power in Numbers, A-Dog has a much
     slimmer pool of support following the revolution. The generation that is
     getting closer to voting is in this young nation now a post-Islamic
     Revolution generation and is obviously far less open to conservative and
     traditional influences.

     -         From the perspective of crystallizing of an anti-regime
     movement there are several aspects:

      1. Are the "liberal demonstrators" ready to demonstrate in unity and
         following nonviolent discipline?
      2. If number 1 is fulfilled are the demonstrators ready to go through
         the "survival" phase (low risk tactics like using symbols, colors,
         sms, virtual communication, ringtones, etc.) then following that the
         "engagement phase" (registrations, recruitment of members in low
         risk tactics, strategic planning) and "engagement phase" (building
         of campaigns towards common goals, commemorating anniversaries such
         as the death of Neda, until a hypothetic referendum as some sort of
         a goal.)

      

     Important answer to whether the movement is ready for this strategizing
     is also whether there is a build up of identity going on.

      

     I am putting my colleagues who work in Middle East and Iran and have
     contacts there (*****, ***** and ****) to cc of this email, as well as
     our long time friend ***** who works for Freedom House and who over some
     virtual channels was to us the most confident source until now.

      

     I hope this is useful for you... Hello from "hellishly hot" Belgrade,

      

     *****

      

      

      

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-07-28 14:00:12</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-06-18 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5426952_re-insight-canvas-on-iran-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kamran.bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5427107</id>
    <title>Re: [Eurasia] [CT] DISCUSSION: Likely ETA attack in Mallorca
</title>
    <description>   Stephen Meiners wrote:

     Any other thoughts on this?

     Ben West wrote:

       Authorities have shut closed ports and airports on the tourist island
       of Mallorca, Spain after an explosive device detonated under what is
       believed to be a police patrol vehicle outside a police station in
       Palmanova.  Two police officers were killed in the explosion and
       several others were injured. The explosion destroyed the vehicle,
       burning it out completely, but caused little damage to surrounding
       vehicles and buildings.  The attack occurred at 2pm, approximately 
       1/4 of a mile from the city's popular tourist beaches, during the
       islands peak tourist season, so civilians were certainly at risk from
       this attack, something that ETA tends to avoid. [tourists weren't
       really at risk though. based on previous attacks, it does not seem to
       be the case that they avoid this either. the potential for collateral
       damage has been present in almost every bomb attack they've carried
       out, and even more so in the ones they've done in other tourist hot
       spots. this was primarily an attack on police targets (keep in mind we
       don't know if the cops killed were involved in ETA investigations),
       though it is interesting that it occurred in a touristy town. then
       again, many places in Spain are touristy.]  I agree.... ETA avoide
       civilians for a short while as a test... they don't care much now...
       we've done pieces on that in the past few years...... ALSO, this
       wasn't hitting a totel, they hit a police station, which is an
       expected target   

        

       There have been no claims for the attack, but authorities suspect that
       Spanish separatist group, ETA is behind the attack.  While the group
       is primarily active in the north of Spain in Basqueland [do we really
       use the term Basqueland? I thought it was Basque country/region, or
       Euskadi?], the group has proven capable of striking outside this
       region before - most recently detonated a 200 kg car bomb in the city
       of Burgos, which is outside of traditional Basque territory. In August
       1995, authorities broke up an ETA plot to assassinate the Spanish King
       Juan Carlos with a rifle while the king was on his yacht. Other
       attacks in Madrid and Barcelona in recent years have established the
       fact that ETA's attacks are not constrained to Basqueland [though
       that's always been the case, especially going back to the 80s and 90s.
       I don't think it's ever been doubted that they have a capability and
       intent to carry out attacks outside of the Basque country. I think a
       more important point is that ETA targets cops all over Spain (both in
       Basque country and elswehere) but they're not likely to conduct
       attacks on civilian targets inside the Basque country].

        

       Targeting the patrol car outside the police station is also a very
       common targeting tactic by ETA and likely rules out the possibility
       that this attack was carried out by elements of Russian organized
       crime, (who have a heavy presence on Mallorca) as they typically limit
       their attacks to business disputes. [are we referring to Russian OC
       tactics in general, or in Mallorca specifically? do we have historical
       examples of Russian OC violence on Mallorca, particularly using IEDs?
       or have they not used IEDs there ever?]

        

       Targeting police personnel and facilities is a tactic commonly used by
       militant groups to undermine the mission of a police department to
       provide security.  The response to effectively shut down
       transportation to and from the island is likely to disrupt the tourist
       industry there - most likely the intention of the group behind this
       attack, despite the fact that the attack targeted a police station. 

        

       With a changing demographic and political climate in Basqueland,
       STRATFOR has noted that ETA, with less support in its Basque
       autonomous region, is likely to become more violent as it becomes more
       desperate. As Basque country overall grows more moderate, ETA will be
       left with only the most extreme members who could very well deviate
       from the common ETA practices of not targeting civilians, calling
       attacks in ahead of time and conducting attacks in the middle of the
       night when casualties are less likely.   Can we have a timeline of
       attacks over the past year by ETA? to show the uptick in the past few
       weeks?

 --
 Ben West
 Terrorism and Security Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin,TX
 Cell: 512-750-9890

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-07-30 18:49:14</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-06 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5427107_re-eurasia-ct-discussion-likely-eta-attack-in-mallorca-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5431298</id>
    <title>Re: a piece on Russia
</title>
    <description>   Very good article Veni!
   I am currently working on a series going through Russia's plans to change
   their economy and how it is going to fall out on the domestic side of
   politics (within Russia's clan war). We are also about to publish our 4th
   quarter forecast starting next week. I'll send you a copy of it when we
   do.
   Thanks,
   Lauren

   Veni Markovski wrote:

     Hi, Lauren.

     Thought you may be interested in reading this small piece of mine on
     Russia.

     Best,
     Veni

     If you are coming to DC, please, feel free to get in touch.

     *How soon is the next Chernobyl?*

     /Russia faces big hurdles and problems; it has no adequate partners in
     the west. Can we change this?
     Will the US support President Medvedev in his efforts to modernize the
     largest country on the planet?/

     In the last few weeks Russian President D.A. Medvedev made some news in
     the USA. First, on Sept. 10 he published on his site an article, "Go,
     Russia!
     &lt;http://eng.kremlin.ru/eng/speeches/2009/09/10/1534_type104017_221527.shtml&gt;",
     five days later he gave an interview
     &lt;http://eng.kremlin.ru/speeches/2009/09/20/1600_type82916_221730.shtml&gt;
     to Fareed Zakaria for CNN. Both were discussed in length, many political
     observers are spending a lot of air time, trying to explain what Mr.
     Medvedev had in mind.

     Some people believe that Mr. Medvedev is genuine in his desire to
     improve Russia. Some are scared by the thought that Russia could be
     strong.

     *The West's fear should not be from a strong, but from a weak Russia* -
     engaged in local ethnic conflicts, attempting to maintain its current
     nuclear arsenal, and running the old and unsafe Soviet industry
     facilities. The tragic disaster at the Sayano-Shushenskaya hydroelectric
     plant in August 2009 should ring a bell not only in Russia, but all over
     the world. It is not a question if there will be another incident, but
     rather when it will happen. The Russian energy sector today suffers from
     unqualified staff, inadequate procedures for maintaining and running
     securely what was built 50 years ago. Chernobyl didn't happen by
     accident, it was a symbol of the whole /system/.

     My appeal to the US is, please, *do not give lectures to the Russians*!
     Give them access to the latest technologies, innovations, and education.
     This will allow Russia to update the old Soviet equipment; otherwise it
     is doomed to more, and perhaps, bigger catastrophes. The access to
     education will change the lives of the Russians much more than giving
     financial aid to the state.

     In order for this new, and perhaps last, effort to succeed, it requires
     not only support from the top - which can be negotiated between the
     presidents, but also support from the Russian citizens. The way to
     engage them, in my view, is through a system education.

     Russian education, which was considered among the best in the world, has
     lost its glory and much of its strength, but the Russians have not lost
     their desire and passion to learn. The US should create programs for
     establishing multi-level relations with Russian primary schools and
     universities, and should encourage not only technological transfer to
     Russia, but also students and educational program exchanges. Russians
     from schools throughout the country should be given the opportunity to
     join the western educational system. College, graduate, and
     post-graduate studies should involve much more Russians than today.

     Don't forget the population problems. Mr. Zakaria mentioned some of them
     - negative growth, massive usage of alcohol (although I question the
     accuracy of his data that more than 50 % of the death of Russians aged
     15-54 is due to alcohol abuse)... Not only is the Russian population
     diminishing, the average Russian male's life expectancy is at a
     stunningly low 61.8 years (compare to Canada - 78.6, USA - 75.6). 
     Then, there's the lack of a well established civil society. Being
     Bulgarian, this is very, very close to me - my own people suffer the
     same lack of belief in their own skills and virtues... or what's left of
     them after 50 years of communism. We share with the Russians not only a
     similar culture, alphabet, religion, but also the same mistakes.

     The US has tried in the past to help Russia - and we all have seen the
     big failure in the 1990s; money was sent to Russia in big quantities,
     with only one visible result today - the  "primitive economy", so named
     by President Medvedev. Many Russians blame US experts, who were sent to
     Russia, for the way the Soviet enterprises were privatized. And the word
     "help" today causes outbursts by the Russian politicians, even publicly.
     Ask Michael Dell, who offered help for Russia to Prime Minister Putin at
     the 2009 Davos Economic Forum, just to find out that a misinterpreted
     word can sometime cause the anger of Mr. Putin.

     Perhaps some are already asking themselves, why, on Earth, shall we do
     anything, when we have such big problems at home?
     To answer that question, one must think not in the short-term
     perspective of today or tomorrow, but rather what will happen when the
     Soviet equipment starts to explode in a more regular way. And what if
     the next explosion is at a nuclear power plant. But, wait - it could be
     worse - what if this is an explosion of people - unhappy, with no
     alternatives, who are suffering the bureaucracy, and see no hope. If
     this happens, it will influence the whole planet, and that's why it is
     in all of our interest to do what we can to make sure there is no second
     Chernobyl.

     The West has lived for too long in comfortable conditions, thinking that
     what happens in one country does not influence others. East Europe was
     left to the Soviets, and the two system lived happily. Today we are in a
     different world. In the context of climate change discussion, or even
     better - the lack of investment in Afghanistan after the Russians left
     the country in 1989, and what it brought to the USA, and to all of us,
     that seems not like old-fashioned dogma, or a bad taste. It seems
     irresponsible towards our own children and our own planet.

     Veni Markovski,
     Washington, DC
     The author is a blogger, and the President of the Internet Society of
     Bulgaria
     The views expressed are his own, and not of any of the organizations
     he's affiliated with

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-10-01 18:56:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5431298_re-a-piece-on-russia-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>veni@veni.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5431824</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - the US focus on Georgia and Ukraine 
</title>
    <description>   CODE: RU108
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Moscow
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: senior at one of Putin's think-tanks
   SOURCES LEVEL: high
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
    
   This is not Vershbow's only move. He will be tossing himself back and
   forth for the next few months between Georgia and Ukraine. He will be in
   Georgia October 19-20 and then in Ukraine in early November and Georgia in
   late November and then back again to both in December.
    
   In Georgia, Vershbow will be coordinating an expansion of US training of
   Georgian troops. It will most likely not just be defensive anymore.
    
   In Ukraine, yes, there was the BMD announcement that Kiev did not even
   know about. But the bigger concern is that under certain Western nudging,
   Ukraine will resume weapon transfers to Georgia.
    
   Vershbow's primary focus will now be on Georgia and Ukraine, but we all
   know that there is an expiration date on the Ukraine part of this
   equation.
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-10-09 17:52:08</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5431824_insight-the-us-focus-on-georgia-and-ukraine-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>watchofficer@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5433095</id>
    <title>IMPORTANT FW: Re: OK
</title>
    <description>    
    

     -------------- Forwarded Message: --------------
     From: atsullivan4321@comcast.net
     To: Bilalkinguk &lt;bilalkinguk@yahoo.co.uk&gt;
     Subject: Re: OK
     Date: Fri, 24 Dec 2004 19:06:25 +0000
     Dear Bilal:
      
     This sounds good:
      
     Take your time.  Probably nothing will happen here until 2 January.
      
     It is vital, of course, that your information be absolutely precise. 
     But you already know that.
      
     I wait what you find with enormous interest.  I think I can say the same
     for our colleagues.
      
     Hussein.
      

       -------------- Original message --------------

          Thanks dear Hussein,
         I am not bargaining the company at all, am just waiting some new
         details from a source to complete my info and make them more
         important. This info is very very important and needs to be very
         accurate and deserves a special compensation.
         But let's wait few days to get some details and to get an idea
         regarding the compensation.
         Best,
          Bilal

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       Do you Yahoo!?
       Send a seasonal email greeting and help others. Do good.
</description>
    <date>2004-12-24 20:07:46</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-15 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5433095_important-fw-re-ok-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>harshey@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>atsullivan4321@comcast.net</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5433381</id>
    <title>Re: BB New
</title>
    <description>The licensing info shows that he did most of the real estate coursework
at Austin Community College and one class at the "Texas Realtors
Institute".  The website for Austin Community College doesn't have any
other results with his name.  I haven't located the "Texas Realtor's
Institute", maybe out of business now, or the website may be listing a
different name?  Will keep checking.

On 1/7/2010 5:36 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
&gt; Good find
&gt;
&gt; ------Original Message------
&gt; From: Anya Alfano
&gt; To: Fred Burton
&gt; To: 'Scott Stewart'
&gt; To: 'korena zucha'
&gt; Subject: BB New
&gt; Sent: Jan 7, 2010 4:26 PM
&gt;
&gt; Just found a new result -- there's an outdated record with the Texas
&gt; Real Estate Commission that BB was a licensed real estate salesperson,
&gt; but the license expired on May 31, 2008.  Looking at the current
&gt; website, there's no indication that he's currently registered for
&gt; anything real estate related in Texas.  Old license info:
&gt;
&gt; http://www.trec.state.tx.us/newsandpublic/licenseeLookup/LicenseeDetail.aspx?inType=01&amp;id=ng&amp;inLicno=0554875
&gt;
&gt; The old license information indicates his permanent address is (the
&gt; license expired more than a year before the purchase of his residential
&gt; property):
&gt; 2413 BUTLER NATIONAL DR.PFLUGERVILLE, TX 78660  (This address is also
&gt; listed in connection with his parents)
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;   
</description>
    <date>2010-01-07 23:56:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5433381_re-bb-new-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5433461</id>
    <title>Re: question
</title>
    <description>Yeah, totally possible.  But looking at the photo and thinking how slimy
he must be to do all of this, real estate also seems to fit the bill. 

On 1/8/2010 8:53 AM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
&gt; Or become a drug dealer?
&gt; Maybe he intends to blackmail us
&gt; He's in on the scam
&gt;
&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;
&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt; From: Anya Alfano &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; Date: Fri, 08 Jan 2010 08:48:28 
&gt; To: &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; Cc: Scott Stewart&lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;; Korena Zucha&lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;; 'korena zucha'&lt;korena.zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt; Subject: Re: question
&gt;
&gt; No, the license expired on May 31, 2008.  He could have earned the money
&gt; before the license expired and sat on it until the market got a little
&gt; stronger this year. 
&gt;
&gt; On 1/8/2010 8:44 AM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
&gt;   
&gt;&gt; License current?
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt;&gt; From: Anya Alfano &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt; Date: Fri, 08 Jan 2010 08:42:38 
&gt;&gt; To: scott stewart&lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt; Cc: &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;; 'Korena Zucha'&lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;; 'korena zucha'&lt;korena.zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt; Subject: Re: question
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Yes, I'm trying to figure out how to pull up real estate transaction
&gt;&gt; records so we can get an idea of how much he earned in commission. 
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; On 1/8/2010 8:04 AM, scott stewart wrote:
&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt; So would real estate in Austin. You could earn that much commission on one
&gt;&gt;&gt; decent house sale.  
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt;&gt;&gt; From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com] 
&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent: Thursday, January 07, 2010 11:11 PM
&gt;&gt;&gt; To: burton@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: Scott Stewart; Korena Zucha; 'korena zucha'
&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: Re: question
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; That would be a great way to earn $45k in cash by the time you're 23.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; On 1/7/2010 10:24 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Maybe he's a gigalo?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;  
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; ------Original Message------
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; From: Scott Stewart
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Anya Alfano
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Fred Burton
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: Korena Zucha
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: 'korena zucha'
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: RE: question
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent: Jan 7, 2010 8:46 PM
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; If a woman wanted to call me by another name and have me pretend to be 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; a British Lord to her friends, she'd have to be a whole lot more 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; attractive than Lauren.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent: Thursday, January 07, 2010 5:00 PM
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Fred Burton
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: zucha@stratfor.com; scott stewart; korena zucha
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: Re: question
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; I feel like I'm missing something here--I totally understand the idea 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; that some men don't necessarily think with the brain on top of their 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; shoulders all the time, but this just seems nuts.  He's letting a girl 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; call him by some random name, speaking with a British accent, 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; pretending to be a British lord, and who knows what else--but why? 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; What is he getting out of it (besides maybe the obvious...)?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On 1/7/2010 1:09 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Drew w/a British accent
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;           
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Does R know him as Brian, or Drew?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On 1/7/2010 12:36 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;           
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; R advises both L &amp; B are unbelievable poker players.  R thinks they 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; work as a tandem.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Anya Alfano wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;           
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;               
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Maybe the guy has roommates to cover the mortgage so he doesn't 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; have any expenses?  Both his cell phone number and his driver's 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; license are registered to the pflugerville home that he owns.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On 1/7/2010 12:04 PM, zucha@stratfor.com wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;           
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;               
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; As a note, his accurint report showed that he had a roommate both 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; at the pflugerville home and Duvall apt although the guy's name 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; did not match those for owners of the cars in the driveway.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On Jan 7, 2010, at 10:56 AM, Anya Alfano 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com &lt;mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;&gt; wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;           
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;               
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                   
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Yes, the number that LG provided is 512-507-6544.  The number is 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; registered in the name of Brian Baxter at the address of the 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; home he owns.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On 1/7/2010 11:52 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;               
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                   
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                     
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Do you have Baxter's cell #?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;           
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;               
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                   
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                     
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;                       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
&gt;&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;       
</description>
    <date>2010-01-08 14:56:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5433461_re-question-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5434390</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - RUSSIA - Its happening! Bye bye Sechin's State firms
</title>
    <description>   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Senior within the Kremlin circle  
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

   The paperwork for the first round of investigations into key companies in
   Russia has been completed. Dmitri Anatolyevich (Medvedev) signed the
   proper documents last night.
    
   The President has signed off on 22 criminal investigations by the
   Prosecutor General Office into Russian state corporations.
    
   Medvedev also signed a document last night that will "overhaul" state
   corporations that are deemed by the PG office as "inappropriate and
   ineffective." This covers everything from financial discrepancies
   (especially bonuses to board members), violations in tenders, unaddressed
   while known inefficiencies, violations on outsourcing, illegal spending of
   state funds, etc. The PG office can now "test" the efficiency of these
   companies too, though the President has given a pretty broad arena for us
   to be able to do this.
    
   Initial inquiries into these companies began in October as said before,
   but now the actual criminal investigations can begin.
    
   Now the PG office can start demanding financial and managerial material
   from the state and the corporations to find out how exactly these
   companies are being run.
    
   Once the investigations are done, the state companies will either be
   cleared, pay fines, be shut down or turned into joint stock companies.
    
   The first companies will be Vneshkonombank, Olympstroi, Rosnano, Russian
   Technologies/Rosoboronexport, VSMPO-Avisma, AvtoVaz, Mortgage Lending
   Agency, Housing and Utilities Reform Fund.
    
   My bet is that Russian Technoloies will be hit the hardest as it is a
   personal project for the puppetmaster. The plan for RT is to break off the
   more than 400 pieces it recently bought up.
    
   The plan for Rosnano is to find out where $5 billion of the $10 billion it
   was allotted from the state two years ago went.... It is not in their
   books.
    
    
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-11-11 17:33:42</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5434390_insight-russia-its-happening-bye-bye-sechin-s-state-firms-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>watchofficer@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5434824</id>
    <title>Hey y'all!
</title>
    <description>   Hey family,
   I made it to Moscow. It is gross, drizzley and sleeting. My flights were
   horrendous. First off, I didn't think I would make my flight in Houston bc
   British Airways are morons and it took them 2.25 hours to get me through
   the basic line to get my freakin boarding pass. Then Heathrow was a
   nightmare as they were pulling people off left and right for secondary
   searches. My security team was not happy.
   I also got seated on one flight among a bunch of Nigerians who don't know
   what deodorant is. The funny thing about the Nigerians (which dad will
   love) is that they ALLLLLL had copies and were reading copies of Joel
   Olstein (spelling?) book--- that crazy American Christian guy I know dad
   loves so much.
   But I'm happy to be back in Moscow. It feels right for me to be here.
   My car and driver here are hilarious. It is this amazing 2010 BMD that is
   bulletproof and seriously dark windows. What cracked me up about my 'ride'
   is that the back seat moves (motorized shifts) as the car swerves and
   stops in order to brace the impact-- crazy new technology.
   My room at Kempinsky in Moscow-- which is Europe's most expensive hotel--
   is insane too. My room partially overlooks the Moscow river with Red
   Square on the other side and partially overlooks this Russian Orthodox
   Seminary. Certainly makes me feel like I"m in the middle of politics and
   intrigue here in Russia.
   I'm sitting right now in the lobby while drinking good vodka (yum)...
   watching people of all levels of shadiness come and go.
   I'll email you again soon, since I have alot of access to email here this
   week.
   Love you,
   La
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-11-21 16:10:31</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5434824_hey-y-all-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>rwgo6@aol.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mgmiles@comcast.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ckgoodrich@gmail.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5434940</id>
    <title>Re: Happy Monday...
</title>
    <description>   Hey boys,
   Just checking in one last time Monday.... errr, I guess its Tuesday now.
   It's 5 am here and I just got in from fourth meeting that started
   yesterday-- damn Russians can drink too long/late. I'm going to crash
   before I head to my sixth meeting in a few hours, starting my Tuesday.
   But I didn't want to leave y'all without hearing from me after my fourth
   meeting and letting y'all know that everything was okay.
   I'll check in later!
   Lauren

   Lauren Goodrich wrote:

     We'll talk when I get back. But in short, there is some not happy
     Russians with my new protector's affinity for me.

     Fred Burton wrote:

       Tougher in what way? 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
       Sent: Monday, November 23, 2009 9:12 AM
       To: burton@stratfor.com
       Cc: Scott Stewart; Chris Farnham
       Subject: Re: Happy Monday...
       Hey Gentlemen,
       I'm out of my third meeting and have a few hours before my late night
       fourth meeting. Everything is okay here, but the terrible Moscow
       traffic.
       As far as my morning meeting, yes, it was the same drill as before,
       though they were tougher with their questions.
       I'm not making many friends here this time... oh well.
       Thanks!
       Lauren

       burton@stratfor.com wrote:

         Lauren - Same drill as before?

         Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: Lauren Goodrich &lt;goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;
         Date: Mon, 23 Nov 2009 03:51:52 -0600
         To: scott stewart&lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;; Fred
         Burton&lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;; Chris
         Farnham&lt;chris.farnham@stratfor.com&gt;
         Subject: Happy Monday...
         Hey Gentlemen,
         Just checking in to let you know everything is okay. Sorry for the
         late check-in, but I got picked up this morning, as we expected, but
         wasn't given time to contact y'all. Godfather knew where I was, so I
         wasn't worried. Just a three hour friendly chat.
         Now I'm preparing to go to my third meeting which should take all
         afternoon. Chat with y'all afterwards!
         Lauren
         --
         Lauren Goodrich
         Director of Analysis
         Senior Eurasia Analyst
         STRATFOR
         T: 512.744.4311
         F: 512.744.4334
         lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
         www.stratfor.com

       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       STRATFOR
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     STRATFOR
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-11-24 03:19:06</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5434940_re-happy-monday-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5435127</id>
    <title>EXCOMM TASK - Paid Source Network
</title>
    <description>   Task: To develop a system whereby we can develop a paid source network so
   that we can have a reliable group of people in key parts of the world who
   can provide us with constant stream of insight.

    

   Current Situation: At present we have very few paid sources and the bulk
   of our insight comes from sources who offer us information because of
   their relationships with individual analysts and because of our
   reputation. Obviously there are limits to the quantity and quality of
   intelligence we can obtain through people who share information in
   exchange for access to our reports. In order to become a global
   intelligence company that is ahead of everyone else in the analysis and
   forecasting business we need to build our proprietary source network.

    

   Problem: Such a network is a function of financial bandwidth, which means
   it will be a slow process and what has happened is that it has been ad hoc
   in nature. There is no system by which we determine where we need/or will
   need a source in a given country/region. The few paid people we have were
   developed as the need arose and as we happen to bump into someone.

    

   Solution: I am working with Stick (we have had a preliminary meeting
   before the last excomm session) to come up with a system by which we can
   build out our paid source network. Stick will be working with Jeff to get
   a budget for this purpose which will then be allocated based on the needs
   of each aor and its urgency. The envisioned system will allow each aor
   working through its respective field analyst to relay its need for a paid
   source to the VP of Tactical Intelligence who will then work with the
   field analyst to address the need as quickly as possible within the
   budgetary constraints. In this way we can uniformly develop our network
   and move away from the current randomness.

    

   Timeline:  I will have the first cut on a proposed system ready so that
   everyone can read it over and then come prepared at the next meeting to
   discuss it.
</description>
    <date>2009-12-02 00:23:48</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-03 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5435127_excomm-task-paid-source-network-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>excomm@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5435265</id>
    <title>Re: visa petition - INFORMATION NEEDED
</title>
    <description>   My degrees &amp; subjects of degrees -
   1) Associates degree in International Relations - Specializing in Russian
   relations - Moscow State University 1998
   2) Bachelors in Slavic Language - Specialization in Russian and Ukrainian
   language - Tomsk Polytechnical University - 2000
   3) Association Masters of Theological Studies - Specialization in
   Religious Conflict; Specialization in Markean Studies - Perkins School of
   Theology - 2003
   4) Bachelors in Slavic Culture and Literature - Specialization in Russia
   and Tolstoy - University of Texas - 2004
   5) Masters in Russian, Eastern, European Eurasia Studies - Specialization
   in Russian and Former Soviet Relations - University of Texas - 2006

   As far as relevant experience... I've been working in this field (whether
   in school or not) non-stop all my life. I officially joined on the World
   Peace Foundation bankroll starting in 1994. I have lead the Russian Peace
   Foundation and worked with the Russian government starting in late 1996. I
   have never stopped this since. I joined Stratfor in 2005.

   I think my diplomas are in Germany, but am not sure.

   Leticia Pursel wrote:

     Hello Lauren,

      

     We were recently asked to submit additional items in regards to a visa
     petition that was submitted on behalf of Kamran Bokhari. I've been asked
     to prepare a chart listing persons who have held the Analyst or Senior
     Analyst position in the last two years, and for each person show:

      

     What college degree the person holds, including the institution and year
     awarded

     The subject of the degree

     How many years relevant experience the person holds post-degree

     Copy of your diploma if available.

      

     This is a time sensitive request so I will need this information right
     away. If you can send part or all of this information by tomorrow it
     would be greatly appreciated. Please let me know if you have any
     questions of if any additional information is needed.

      

      

     Thank you!

     Leticia

      

     --

     Leticia G. Pursel

     Human Resources Manager

     STRATFOR

     P: 512.744.4076 or 800.286.9062

     F: 512.744.4105

     www.stratfor.com

      

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-12-02 16:53:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5435265_re-visa-petition-information-needed-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>leticia.pursel@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5436672</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - RUSSIA - Bashneft Security Chief gunned down 
</title>
    <description>   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION:  yes if we get more info
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the PG office
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Prosecutor General
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
   HANDLER: Lauren
    
    
   The head of security for Russian oil firm Bashneft, Vladimir Butorin, was
   gunned down in Ufa at 9 a.m. Dec. 29. Butorin was shot five times - mostly
   in the back and buttocks-on his way to work on Mustafa Karim street.
    
   At the crime scene found a barrel of a gun PSS (special self-loading
   pistol). This is a rare weapon, armed by the KGB and military
   intelligence.
    
   There were surveillance cameras in the area, though they did not record
   the incident. There is footage of a woman (or man dressed as a woman)
   running from where the incident most likely took place.
    
   Bashneft is offering a reward of 600,000 rubles for any information on the
   killing.
    
   Butorin was former KGB, but had been working for Bashneft in charge of
   their secrets and securing their intelligence for over a decade.
    
   This is the first assumed contract killing in the energy industry in a few
   years. Could be the Kremlin making a move, could be a rival energy company
   making a move or could be related to something else altogether (an affair
   or bad business).
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-12-30 15:52:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5436672_insight-russia-bashneft-security-chief-gunned-down-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5436902</id>
    <title>SRM UPDATE - BULGARIA - 080414
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2008-04-14 20:01:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5436902_srm-update-bulgaria-080414-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>srmupdate@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/174/174845_BULGARIA - Crime_Points 080414.doc</path><size>44032</size><md5></md5><sha1>2b576a8cbac0eeb0b7066fb21ad0de876ca40695</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/174/174847_BULGARIA - Terrorism and Insurrection_Points 080414.doc</path><size>40448</size><md5></md5><sha1>1b236b402928c5f861039d01480e0644f6d4e839</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/174/174848_BULGARIA - Labor_Points 080414.doc</path><size>34816</size><md5></md5><sha1>9be65ed839a85e7eb6e480896b32af07bf54e7a4</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/174/174850_BULGARIA - PoliticalRegulatoryEnvironment_Points 080414.doc</path><size>47616</size><md5></md5><sha1>f3c79d11c38bd86c7a576a865e481abe2e0aa0a1</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/174/174851_BULGARIA - International Frictions_Points 080414.doc</path><size>38400</size><md5></md5><sha1>250d4b594a2828e96bf95e178c383749a56bffb9</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/174/174852_BULGARIA - NGOs_Points 080414.doc</path><size>33280</size><md5></md5><sha1>ceaa9b9c3e4cfff29f4c70e6c5093279ccc3a45a</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/174/174853_BULGARIA - Natural Disasters_Points 080414.doc</path><size>43520</size><md5></md5><sha1>624a91a338ab0100f8d1db4a03e8f4ef4fa97000</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/174/174854_BULGARIA - Country Writeup - 080414.doc</path><size>47104</size><md5></md5><sha1>191f51e7e5d18597f5fe8d005d9bc35d09e27c64</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5437150</id>
    <title>Overview of the Source Review Process
</title>
    <description>   Meredith,
   As we discussed, I've included my thoughts about the review process
   below.  Please let me know if you have any questions.  Hope you have a
   safe trip and a good weekend!
   Anya

   This document is meant to provide my observations about the sources that
   have been evaluated to date and our use of those sources.  I've also
   included some other observations about the source review process and the
   thoughts about how to make our source process function more effectively.

    

   To date the groups of sources that have not been reviewed include:

   .      MESA - All of Reva's sources, aside from ME1

   .      FSU - Lauren's Russia sources, aside from the first 20 and new
   sources that Eugene has developed while in the region

   .      East Asia - All sources not managed by Jen (Rodger, Zhixing, Colby,
   Chris, Lena)

   .      Topic Specific Sources - Sources that can discuss economics,
   military, energy, minerals and other similar topics in multiple regions
   and countries

    

   Regional Overviews -

    

   .      Latam - We have a wide range of sources in Latin America that cover
   political, security and economic matters, but we don't have a particular
   depth in any one country or area, with the possible exception of security
   sources in Mexico. Our coverage in Brazil could be especially good as both
   Paulo and Allison further develop their current contacts.  Paulo appears
   to have a good selection of political, security, military and econ
   contacts, though we don't have a good track record of information from
   these contacts at this point. In other countries, we have a scattered
   selection of sources that appear to be primarily political. We have some
   gaps in full country coverage in Latin America, especially in Central
   America, since these areas haven't been particularly important in the
   past. We have some gaps in economics throughout the region, though we also
   are largely lacking tactical details about events and situations within
   the region.

    

   .      East Asia - The sources we've reviewed to date have been handled by
   Jen, so there may be other gems buried among the team. Jen has a few
   select sources that have a deep and broad base of knowledge about specific
   subjects inside China, but mostly they have information specific to
   certain corporations, industries or situations. Jen has several contacts
   with economic and finance related information and analysis that we
   currently utilize. There are also several sources with a solid
   understanding of the political situation, as well as tactical events in
   the country. Moving forward, it may be useful to us to establish
   additional sources outside of Beijing and Shanghai to fill geographic
   gaps, as most of our contacts are currently located in those areas. Our
   coverage of Southeast Asia is largely dependent on two sources in each
   country. We currently have good sources covering several countries that
   all appear to have a good personal network of their own sources to assist
   us. These networks appear to fill most gaps in our coverage throughout the
   sub region.

    

   .      Europe/FSU - Of all regions, I was most troubled by our contacts in
   the FSU region.  While we have some contacts in Romania and Ukraine that
   cover political and economic matters, there are very few contacts that
   have proven to send us information on a reliable basis, and most of these
   contacts have a very narrow focus. That said, both Eugene and Antonia have
   identified a number of potential sources that could fill the gaps that we
   currently see in these areas. Our sources in Kazakhstan include both broad
   and narrowly focused areas of interest, though we don't have a good track
   record of information from many of the sources that would appear to be
   most valuable. This is also the case in many of the smaller countries in
   the region. We've only covered the first 20 of Lauren's Russia sources,
   though so far we appear to have a good grasp of political and energy
   matters in the country. Europe-not including countries of the Former
   Soviet Union - appears to be our weakest region by far. To date, we've
   seen fewer than 10 sources in this region, but this may be due only to our
   focus on other lesser-developed areas.

    

   .      MESA - We don't yet have a complete look at our capabilities in
   MESA without a more detailed examination of the information that's being
   provided by ME1's sub-sources and a review of Reva's sources outside of
   ME1. While we have that information that ME1 has submitted in the archive,
   it's not readily identifiable as belonging to any specific sources, thus
   it's difficult to judge the credibility of the individuals providing
   information.  We also need to evaluate the rest of Reva's non-ME1
   contacts.  Kamran has a broad network of contacts with deep knowledge of
   the history and strategic issues surrounding the Middle East. Changes in
   coding systems and lack of coding for previous insight means we don't have
   a good handle on the information that has previously been provided by
   these contacts. Despite their vast knowledge, the majority of these
   contacts do not have a tactical understanding of the day-to-day affairs in
   the Middle East, or economic affairs throughout the region. While ME1
   likely has sources that can cover these issues in the Levant, we have
   significant gaps in coverage of tactical issues in most Middle Eastern
   countries.  The notable exceptions to these thoughts are Turkey and
   Afghanistan, where we have several sources that can provide information on
   both the strategic and tactical situations related to politics and
   security.  We also have a good selection of Turkish sources with economic
   information, though we don't have a solid track record of information from
   those contacts yet.

    

   .      Africa - Mark has a very large list of contacts that could provide
   information on a wide variety of topics.  However, outside of South
   Africa, the majority of his sources appear to have a very narrow scope of
   interest and are typically not easily accessible.  Additionally, most of
   these contacts are not regularly in communication with Mark, which may
   make it difficult for us to tap into their knowledge on a regular basis.
   Many would be useful in very specific circumstances, but few could be
   considered to have an in-depth knowledge and expertise of broader topics
   or fields of study. Mark has some sources in South Africa that have a
   broader understanding of the political and security situation in South
   Africa and the energy and mining situations throughout the southern Africa
   region. However, most of the contact list appears to be related to
   security, or specific corporations, leaving gags in the area of economics.
   There are also gaps in some countries throughout the continent and gaps in
   our understanding of larger economic, mining, and energy issues outside of
   the southern regions.

    

   General Impressions

   .      We found that many analysts frequently had not been sending insight
   information, either because it they did not consider their information to
   be insight, or because they had not yet coded the contact providing the
   insight.  A simplified way to provide source codes and updated guidance on
   when a source should be given a code and what information should be sent
   will solve this problem.

   .      In previous years, I would estimate that more than 50% of all
   insight sent to the lists did not include a source code.  Now that we're
   attempting to evaluate each source based on the information that they're
   providing, it's more important that source codes are used each time a
   piece of insight is sent.  The Watch Officers have already been extremely
   helpful in making sure the analysts are using codes when possible.  This
   should aid in the next evaluation.

   .      Our use of sources is currently limited by the fact that the
   analysts don't always know that a source exists.  Obviously this is due in
   part to operational security, but it may be beneficial if source
   descriptions are provided among regional team members to make sure that
   everyone is aware a certain source exists and it may be possible to tap
   that individual for information.

   .      We have very few sources that are proactive in providing us with
   information, despite some very long and beneficial relationships.

   .      Of all media sources, multiple regions noted that they frequently
   interact with Reuters news agency more than others. I'm not sure if that
   means something specific, but our analysts seem to interact with Reuters
   journalists and bureau chiefs very frequently.

   .      I didn't see any specific trends related to the use of
   Confederation partners among regions. While some have been very useful to
   date, it seems that there may be a mismatch between the individuals our
   analysts are speaking with and the people who actually have the
   information we're seeking. In some cases, it seems like this might be
   deliberate, or may be related to perceptions that we're competition within
   the industry.  In some cases, these partnerships appear to be flourishing
   and providing us with good information. I don't recall hearing from any
   analyst that the relationship was too draining or too demanding for us to
   fulfill.

   .      Several analysts brought up the idea of "tag-teaming" some sources,
   especially when dealing with confederation partners and indicated that
   this was a good strategy for an all-sides approach to the company so that
   we can try to ensure we're connecting as much as possible, especially in
   cases where one person "clicks" more with the partner involved.

    

    
</description>
    <date>2011-10-01 01:28:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 02:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5437150_overview-of-the-source-review-process-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5437438</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] Discussion- Al-Mabhouh blowback
</title>
    <description>   Any ideas how they got to the shopping center?  Maybe a cab driver
   talked?  Only need to connect one person to make the dots come together.

   On 2/17/2010 5:06 PM, Ben West wrote:

     right, but there was no inherent connection between the hotel and the
     shopping center that I could see. In order to run TrapWire, you first
     have to have the images to analyze - I'm curious as to who decided to
     look at the shopping center tapes and how they determined that it needed
     to be looked at.
     In general, this just seems too good to be true.  Either Dubai police
     department are a bunch of bad-asses or someone got help.

     Fred Burton wrote:

 Forensically, you start on the hotel tapes from the floor of the murder
 and walk the cat back, using TrapWire like software.

 Ben West wrote:
  

 One thing I was talking to Bayless about just now: I realize that there
 is now face recognition technology out there that would allow the
 Emirates to track these people, but in order to use that, you have to
 have the right set of images to work from in the first place.
 Running analysis at the airport makes sense because the team would have
 scanned their passports there and so had to have gone through the
 airport.  Same for the hotels, authorities would have been able to place
 the team members at each hotel based on their passports, which would
 help specify which video to analyze.
 However, I don't understand how they got video of the team going into
 the shopping center.  Out of all the random places that the team
 could've met, what prompted the police to check that shopping center?
 Either they ran checks on hundreds of other CCTV tapes or they somehow
 had a tip that the team was meeting at the mall.

 Fred Burton wrote:
    

 Yes, I think as you break down the tape, the teams had specific roles.
 If host country intelligence and/or another service picked up on them,
 they had enough players in the mix to send any surveillance team down a
 rat hole.  I think we are missing something on the dead guy.

 George Friedman wrote:
  
      

 17 people for a hit leaves so many opportunities for failure that its
 breathtaking.  Maybe it is the Israelis, but that is way out of the
 box.  Like I said, I wonder how many were camo.  I bet you some of those
 who resolved back to the Israeli passport holders weren't even aware
 there was a hit on.  That much razzle dazzle might mean a small team
 hidden in a big box.

 Fred Burton wrote:
    
        

 Wow

 His links to Iran must have been very important.

 Sean Noonan wrote:
  
      
          

 Just to clarify--NYT, sourced from Dubai police, says 17 people now.
 The 11 they identified, with pictures/passport info, and then 6 others.
 Fred Burton wrote:
    
        
            

 When you break down the video tape, efforts were made by the hit team to
 conceal their identities from the video.

 The operation was worked around the video tape I think.

 Between 13-15 men were in play; multiple surveillance teams; hand offs,
 clothing changes; wigs, toupees, cover for action.

 Mossad has made several tactical errors in the past, to include the loss
 of two Palestinian double agents in Europe.

 They had the same passport foul up on the attempt to poison Mishaal in
 Amman, which led to them being caught.

 Frankly, Mossad has a history of bungled operations, but quite a few
 good ones, like Ali Hassan Salameh.

 This was Mossad.

 George Friedman wrote:
 
      
          
              

 A Mossad team would be extremely aware of placement of security
 cameras.  They would not be doing what this woman did.  She is to a
 great extent blown now.  Major intelligence agencies would be able to do
 biometrics on her pretty effectively.  An agent competent enough to
 participate in an assassination of a HVT in an Arab country would be
 highly trained and prized.  So from this we can assume that she is
 either a throwaway in the team or that this isn't a major league
 hit--and it was. The Israelis did not need to make this appear to be an
 Israeli hit because everyone would assume that it was Israeli anyway. No
 need for confirmation.  For a hit like this the passports used would
 have been much harder to trace, certainly not to living people in
 Israel.  The Israelis, like all intelligence organizations, maintain
 libraries of properly aged identities that don't resolve to living
 people.

 Either this was not an Israeli hit or the Israelis sent a second tier
 team.  The women looks like she could be Jewish, but she could also be
 middle eastern or American.
 This hit, like some other allegedly Israeli hits in recent years, does
 not follow high professional standards.  Trust me on this--the hotel in
 which this woman stayed was mapped out months ago, probably from blue
 prints but certainly remapped for security devices and cameras.  She was
 briefed (pounded into her head) where the cameras were and to turn her
 head as she walked by, preferably wearing a dress that hid her figure--a
 blob on the video camera.  Instead, she is hamming it up.  Looking at
 her, she wasn't the honey trap, so what the hell is going on?

 Sean Noonan wrote:
   
        
            
                

 As Posey works on the piece from the tactical angle, I wanted to bring
 up the political angle.  Now that all kinds of information has come
 out on the assassination of Hamas operative Al-Mabhouh in Dubai on
 Jan. 19, European governments are starting to question the fraudulent
 use of their passports.  6 British, 3 Irish, 1 German and 1 French
 passports were all faked/stolen/borrowed and then used by the
 assassination team.  NYT/Dubai says there were another 6 involved, who
 they probably didn't get on camera.
 Israel has in the past borrowed/acquired passports from immigrated or
 dual-citizens of other countries (like Canada for failed Meshaal
 assassination). They also can fake them or steal them.  It's becoming
 clear that this was a Mossad op, so if we make that assumption, what's
 the blowback on Israel?

 UK is asking questions:
 http://www.english.rfi.fr/europe/20100217-uk-presses-answers-hamas-killing

 http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5heI4dq286UxVDMXoueq-dwR8tbJw

 http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=37297

 Ireland from a week or so ago:
 http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/world-news/israeli-hit-squad-that-killed-hamas-commander-had-irish-passports-14670094.html


 Six of the passport _names_ had dual citizenship with israel:
 http://articles.latimes.com/2010/feb/16/world/la-fg-dubai-slaying17-2010feb17


 I haven't seen stuff from other countries yet.  When this happened to
 the Canadians with Meshaal, they couldn't/didn't do much.  Will the
 Brits or anyone else do anything?  Obviously Israel doesn't really
 give a shit, but I feel like this is something we should watch.

 --
 Sean Noonan
 ADP- Tactical Intelligence
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

        
          
              
                  

 --

 George Friedman

 Founder and CEO

 Stratfor

 700 Lavaca Street

 Suite 900

 Austin, Texas 78701


 Phone  512-744-4319

 Fax  512-744-4334

    
        
            
                

  
      
          

 --

 George Friedman

 Founder and CEO

 Stratfor

 700 Lavaca Street

 Suite 900

 Austin, Texas 78701


 Phone  512-744-4319

 Fax  512-744-4334

    
        

 --
 Ben West
 Terrorism and Security Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin,TX
 Cell: 512-750-9890

    

 --
 Ben West
 Terrorism and Security Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin,TX
 Cell: 512-750-9890
</description>
    <date>2010-02-17 23:06:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5437438_re-ct-discussion-al-mabhouh-blowback-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ben.west@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5440404</id>
    <title>Re: Discussion - Georgia Update
</title>
    <description>   do I have permission to write?

   POSSIBLE BUDGET - Stratfor has been long following the tit-for-tat
   struggle between Georgia and Russia [LINK] and as there has been an
   escalation seemed to be near breaking point [LINK], but has subsided for
   now since Tbilisi knows that no one is coming to its defense against its
   big bear of a neighbor. However, the question to watch now is if Moscow
   will again push the issue since it seems as if it is getting its internal
   issues out of the way, which could free it up to concentrate on other
   things, like its struggle with Georgia.

   Lauren Goodrich wrote:

     crisis has subsided for now...
     though the Georgians are still trying to get the Europeans behind
     them... they won't bite.
     but could flare up again if the Kremlin get a better free hand
     internally.

     friedman@att.blackberry.net wrote:

 So has the crisis subsided or was it never really there? 
 Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

 -----Original Message-----
 From: Lauren Goodrich &lt;goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;

 Date: Mon, 12 May 2008 11:13:28
 To:Analyst List &lt;analysts@stratfor.com&gt;
 Subject: Discussion - Georgia Update


 We haven't seen any large moves over the weekend for 2 reasons:
      1) Georgia is still negotiating with the Europeans... though they seem to not be giving anything to Tbilisi
      2) Germany and France would have to make the decision for that to change... doubt that will happen, esp with Russia and Germany meeting tomorrow on the issue
      2) Kremlin has been locked away on domestic issues, which could end soon with some of the shifts Putin is making so he can concentrate on other issues.
 
  Lauren Goodrich wrote: CODE: GE101, UA102
  PUBLICATION: yes
  ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Tbilisi &amp; Moscow
  SOURCES RELIABILITY: C-D
  ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2-4
  SPECIAL HANDLING: Analysts
  SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
   
   
  SOURCE 1:
  The Foreign Ministers' dinner between select Europeans-president of EU, Poland, Lithuania, etc-- and the Georgians is about to just wrap up. Leaks from it are that the Europeans can not send any help to Georgia, especially since Germany and France have forbid it; In all honesty, Germany and France also were not in favor of the trip to Tbilisi, so it is not even EU sanctioned, though under the banner of the EU since its president is on the trip.
   
  SOURCE 2:
  Lithuania is not backing down to the EU's push for it to drop its veto against Russia. It is saying that its veto is even more important with the conflict rising between Georgia and Russia. Lithuania seems to be Georgia's most vocal supporter at the moment, much to the rest of the EU's ire.
   
  Steinmeier is suppose to meet with Lavrov tomorrow. They are suppose to be telling Germany to continue keeping out of the conflict with Georgia.
   
  

     --

     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     Stratfor
     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

       ------------------------------------------------------------------

 _______________________________________________
 Analysts mailing list

 LIST ADDRESS:
 analysts@stratfor.com
 LIST INFO:
 https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts
 LIST ARCHIVE:
 http://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2008-05-12 18:36:56</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5440404_re-discussion-georgia-update-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5441475</id>
    <title>Re: Time for a quick call? 757-478-7383  (libyan intel)
</title>
    <description>   Can we publish this?  Or should it just stay on Alpha?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Fred Burton" &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "korena zucha" &lt;korena.zucha@stratfor.com&gt;, "Anya Alfano"
   &lt;Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Wednesday, November 9, 2011 2:46:05 PM
   Subject: Fwd: Time for a quick call? 757-478-7383  (libyan intel)

   Smith's source is Yousef Haddad.  Haddad called Smith to report he has
   stepped down.  Haddad is also close to Mehdi.  

   Long story short, the top two of the Tripoli Revolutionary Council have
   stepped down.   

   Mehdi has also stepped down from the Tripoli Revolutionary Brigade and has
   been paid off to leave by the NTC, receiving 200,000 Euros.  However, the
   Euros were stolen from his house in Dublin.  

   Hashim (?) has taken over for Mehdi.   Hashim was Mehdi's Deputy.  

   Smith believes the bar has swung to Bel-Hadj and he is trying to
   consolidate power.   Not good for the U.S.....

   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: Time for a quick call? 757-478-7383         
      Date: Wed, 9 Nov 2011 14:22:37 -0500              
      From: James F. Smith &lt;jamie@scginternational.com&gt; 
        To: burton@stratfor.com &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;   

 Sent from my mobile device
</description>
    <date>1970-01-01 01:00:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-19 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5441475_re-time-for-a-quick-call-757-478-7383-libyan-intel-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5441681</id>
    <title>Re: Fwd: Re: Assad &amp; Syria
</title>
    <description>   I don't have a number for him, but we can create one -- should he be
   IL701?  Or is he not in Israel now?

   On 9/1/11 3:09 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

     I don't know if he has a # or not, feel free to assign him one if
     desired.  He's former IDF MI. 

     On 9/1/2011 2:08 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

       Does he have source info? Want this posted?

       On 9/1/11 12:54 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

         -------- Original Message --------

         Subject: Re: Assad &amp; Syria                   
            Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2011 10:33:26 -0700      
            From: David Dafinoiu &lt;david@dafinoiu.com&gt; 
              To: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;   

         Hi Fred,

         Many "international" analysts think that since Syria is the only
         nation who attacked Israel in the Six Day War and still technically
         at war with Israel, Assad may launch some sort of attack on Israel
         in an effort to force an Israeli retaliation with the goal of
         dragging the other Arab and Muslim nations to his defense. This is a
         possible scenario, and if it will happen it is just for the reason
         of dragging Iran into a trap.

         In reality, Assad is the Western agent in the Iranian and Russian
         back yard. He is well protected by both Mossad and MI6. He and his
         father have kept stability along the Syrian and Israeli border since
         the last war in 1973.

         Al-Assad is an Alawite, and his regime has constantly repressed
         radical Islam. At the same time, his regime has been powerful
         protector of Christians in Syria. Christians represent about 10
         percent of the Syrian population, the second largest Christian
         community in the ME after Israel.

         The real enemy of Assad these days is Turkey and its government
         which is funded by the Muslim Brotherhood. The Turks hope that as a
         NATO member they will be allowed to invade Syria and take over and
         manage part of Syrian land. Syria just deployed 25 anti-air missile
         batteries along its Turkish border.

         There is a big possibility that Syria attacks Israel and Iran will
         jump in the game to help them out. Whatever happens in the next
         weeks or months, in my opinion Assad will remain in power for at
         least another year.

         Best, David

         On Thu, Sep 1, 2011 at 7:51 AM, Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
         wrote:

           Hello David,

           What are your thoughts on Assad's next move?  Does he throw in the
           towel
           and flee?

           Thanks, Fred

         --
         Cordially,
          
         David Dafinoiu
         President

         NorAm Intelligence
         Mobile: 646-678-2905
         Office: 855.692.3226
         Fax: 214-242-2285
         Email: dd@noramintel.com
         Web: http://noramintel.com

         NorAm Intelligence, a subsidiary of NorAm Capital Holdings, Inc. is
         a U.S. based international firm specializing in risk management. All
         our assignments are handled with total confidentiality and
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         This communication is intended for use only by the individual(s) to
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         privileged or confidential information.  If you have received this
         message in error, please notify us immediately by returning the
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</description>
    <date>2011-09-01 21:10:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-26 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5441681_re-fwd-re-assad-and-syria-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5444184</id>
    <title>Brazil Telecom chief accused of illegal espionage
</title>
    <description>   Kroll Brazil has been in some hot water concerning a case of illegal
   industrial espionage against Telecom Italia. The saga continues now with
   the chief of Brazil Telecom in hot water.

    

   Presidente da Brasil Telecom e indiciada por formac,ao de quadrilha
    | 11.04.2005

   Empresa nao emitiu comunicado sobre o assunto ate o momento

   EXAME Carla Cico, presidente da Brasil Telecom (BrT) (10-a no ranking de
   Melhores &amp; Maiores 2004) foi indiciada nesta segunda-feira (11/4) pela
   Policia Federal (PF) por formac,ao de quadrilha e divulgac,ao de segredo
   no que ficou conhecido como "caso Kroll" (leia reportagem de EXAME para
   entender o caso).

   As investigac,oes fazem parte da Operac,ao Chacal, iniciada em 2004 pela
   PF apos a descoberta de indicios da formac,ao de um esquema de espionagem
   ilegal, no calor da disputa entre a Telecom Italia e o Opportunity pelo
   controle da BrT. A agencia internacional de investigac,oes Kroll e acusada
   de agir ilegalmente, oferecendo vantagens a testemunhas e quebrando
   sigilos bancario e telefonico, inclusive de autoridades do governo
   federal.

   A assessoria da BrT confirma o indiciamento, mas ainda nao emitiu
   comunicado formal sobre o assunto. Os advogados de Cico, Antonio Carlos de
   Almeida Castro e Nelio Machado, foram procurados mas nao retornaram as
   ligac,oes ate 19 horas desta segunda-feira. O empresario Daniel Dantas,
   socio do banco Opportunity, deve ser intimado nesta terc,a-feira (12/4) e
   apresentar-se `a PF no Rio de Janeiro em 48 horas a partir da intimac,ao.

   Com informac,oes da Agencia Brasil.

    

    

   Samuel Logan

   StratFor Correspondent

   1666 Kst. Suite 600

   Washington, DC  20006

   www.stratfor.com

   logan@stratfor.com

   +1 (202) 558-2485

    

    
</description>
    <date>2005-04-12 18:36:11</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-02 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5444184_brazil-telecom-chief-accused-of-illegal-espionage-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>harshey@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>logan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>rushing@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5447352</id>
    <title>Re: PETA
</title>
    <description>   Hi Van,
   I'm checking with our analysts to find out what information we already
   have on the subject.  I'll get back to you soon with more information.
   Best regards,
   Anya

   Van C. Wilberding wrote:

     Hi Anya,

     Thanks again for your help with respect to the Korean Peninsula
     situation.

     We are now looking at PETA and the potential for protests at the
     Vancouver Olympics and related events.  (Please see the following
     questions below.)  We'd like to schedule a time for a conference call
     with you and/or your analyst(s) on this topic.

     -- How many PETA supporters are there in Canada?
     -- How many of these are inclined toward activism?
     -- To what extent will US-based PETA supporters travel to Canada to
     support activism?
     -- What is PETA's methodology for planning and executing activism?
      (Understanding this better would certainly help us to recognize
     indicators should they appear.)
     -- To what extent is PETA in Canada linked to PETA in the US or
     elsewhere?
     -- To what extent are the actions of PETA in one country controlled by
     an oversight board/governing body?
     -- To what extent could non-PETA hangers-on (such as anarchists or ALF
     supporters) get involved in any protest activity?

     Please let us know what works in terms of timing of the conference call.

     Thanks again,

     Van
     Coca-Cola: LIVE POSITIVELY - Our Company and leaders have supported
     education for more than 100 years. Learn about our education programs
     around the world.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     
     This message (including any attachments) contains information that may
     be confidential. Unless you are the intended recipient (or authorized to
     receive for the intended recipient), you may not read, print, retain,
     use, copy, distribute or disclose to anyone the message or any
     information contained in the message. If you have received the message
     in error, please advise the sender by reply e-mail, and destroy all
     copies of the original message (including any attachments).
</description>
    <date>2009-06-02 17:23:15</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5447352_re-peta-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>vwilberding@na.ko.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>genbrown@na.ko.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5453604</id>
    <title>Re: FW: Comrade J (book)
</title>
    <description>   I loved the book... gave so much technical info and detail

   Fred Burton wrote:

     from a spook buddy source

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     Fred,

      

     Thanks for the recommendation...what a fascinating, and frightening
     account. In light of the recent elections, I can't help but recall the
     quote, "the voters don't decide the election, the people that count the
     votes decide the election"  They are certainly continuing on a
     disturbing path.

      

     Regards,

      

      

      

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2008-03-07 19:45:10</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5453604_re-fw-comrade-j-book-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>howerton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zeihan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>aaric.eisenstein@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5454590</id>
    <title>Re: FW: email of Fred Burton
</title>
    <description>   sorry... wrote him this morning.

   Fred Burton wrote:

     Lauren, That Veni dude sent me a note wanting to know when we would be
     in touch, just so you know, advised him we have been swamped. 

     Lauren Goodrich wrote:

       Okay, heard back from my side.
       He is hooked into the Bulgairan OC, but nothing too shady bout that
       since he is Bulgarian.
       He is not hooked into the Russians either through OC or FSB.

       Fred Burton wrote:

         Thank you

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
         Sent: Sunday, August 10, 2008 11:39 PM
         To: Fred Burton
         Subject: Re: FW: email of Fred Burton
         Markovski is a huge internet mogul in Bulgaria. He is kinda a
         strange guy, but very powerful in business circles. I've shipped his
         name to my ppl to see if he is hooked into FSB or OC. But he is one
         of the biggest founders of Internet in Bulgaria and the region. I
         know he has ties into Russia and the rest of the CIS.

         To be honest, I can't imagine him having a "gmail" account with his
         own name on it. That seems really suspect to me since he is such a
         powerful and rich dude.

         Fred Burton wrote:

            Any idea who these folks are?  Thx  

           -----Original Message-----
           From: veni Markovski [mailto:venimarkovski@gmail.com] On Behalf Of
           Veni Markovski
           Sent: Sunday, August 10, 2008 4:46 PM
           To: service@stratfor.com
           Subject: email of Fred Burton

           Hi.

           I am looking for the e-mail of Mr. Burton. Would be glad, if you
           can send it.

           Thank you.

           Sincerely,

           Veni Markovski

           Senior Advisor for International Projects
           &lt;http://www.daits.government.bg/&gt;State Agency for IT and
           Communications &lt;http://www.government.bg/&gt;Council of Ministers |
           REPUBLIC OF BULGARIA
           ----------------
           email: &lt;mailto:veni@veni.com&gt;veni@veni.com | email2:
           &lt;mailto:veni@daits.government.bg&gt;veni@daits.government.bg
           office: +1-646-873-7708 | office2: +359-2-401-8008 | fax:
           +1-212-319-5955 Bulgarian Consulate General, 121 E 62nd Str., New
           York, NY 10021, USA

         --

         Lauren Goodrich
         Director of Analysis
         Senior Eurasia Analyst
         Stratfor
         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
         T: 512.744.4311
         F: 512.744.4334
         lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
         www.stratfor.com

       --

       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       Stratfor
       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2008-08-14 21:23:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5454590_re-fw-email-of-fred-burton-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5454900</id>
    <title>For the New-Tern
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2008-08-19 18:47:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5454900_for-the-new-tern-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>gordon.wilkins@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/126/126613_FSU sweep list.doc</path><size>41472</size><md5></md5><sha1>5f504b22a86e21d054996eec9a56c763f6430ca8</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/126/126616_GV Client List for Team.doc</path><size>44032</size><md5></md5><sha1>3cb219e751d88534b8296db27ea760bd858c2056</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/174/174277_FSU sites.doc</path><size>46080</size><md5></md5><sha1>782c029b6bb316d660abf800e649bd580506ee07</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/175/175579_GEOPOLITICAL IMPERATIVE - RUSSIA.doc</path><size>535552</size><md5></md5><sha1>522ee9fc8d1574ae578b249e35837e189654810c</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5456097</id>
    <title>Re: Mooney
</title>
    <description>The fact that there are no messages from him to her also makes his role
look really strange--assuming he's just in it for sex, wouldn't there
still be some communication between the two of them?  No communication
would indicate some sort of paid relationship, maybe? 

One other thought--does the company pay for her cell phone bill?  If so,
we should be able to get a list of her cell phone calls.  I'd be
interested to see if there are regular calls between her cell phone
number and his known cell phone number. 

On 1/7/2010 3:25 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt; Mooney is going to walk back the cat on the email and phones again, in
&gt; an effort to smoke out any new data.  He recalled a Baxter gmail acct in
&gt; his first sweep, but zero email back to her.
&gt;   
</description>
    <date>2010-01-07 23:34:21</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5456097_re-mooney-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5457112</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - RUSSIA - Evraz is done
</title>
    <description>   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: One of the top within the Kremlin circle  
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
    
   Evraz is done, no matter what deals Abramovich thinks he has with Putin...
   Abramov (other VP) has sealed the company's fate.
    
   So Putin and Abramov had a very public spat this week while they sat next
   to each other at an Industrialists meeting. Putin accused Abramov &amp; Evraz
   of gouging ppl over steel prices
    
   Putin said: Imagine that I'm sitting under the table as you're conducting
   pricing negotiations!  After all, you're not conducting yourself by the
   rules of the market!  People come from you with a direct order: don't
   lower prices!
    
   When Abramov tried to protest, Putin brushed him off with a wave of the
   hand, exclaiming "I don't want to hear it!"

   Every other metals Oligarch was at the table watching this.
    
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-03-20 20:49:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5457112_insight-russia-evraz-is-done-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5458821</id>
    <title>Re: FW: the letter
</title>
    <description>Wonder if they tried to pull up "HMRShippingUK.net".  Game over....

On 2/12/2010 3:24 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt; Have the Indians also been invited to the party?
&gt;
&gt; scott stewart wrote:
&gt;   
&gt;&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt;&gt; From: Peter Zeihan [mailto:zeihan@stratfor.com] 
&gt;&gt; Sent: Friday, February 12, 2010 3:17 PM
&gt;&gt; To: scott stewart
&gt;&gt; Subject: the letter
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; ------------------------------------------------------------------------
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Subject:
&gt;&gt; Re: Hello my friends
&gt;&gt; From:
&gt;&gt; "Marko Papic" &lt;mpapic@gmail.com&gt;
&gt;&gt; Date:
&gt;&gt; Thu, 11 Feb 2010 20:39:17 -0500
&gt;&gt; To:
&gt;&gt; &lt;L.A.Anderson@hmrshippinguk.net&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; To:
&gt;&gt; &lt;L.A.Anderson@hmrshippinguk.net&gt;
&gt;&gt; CC:
&gt;&gt; &lt;cooper.a.kristen@gmail.com&gt;, &lt;peter.zeihan@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Hey Andrew,
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Thank you for your email.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; What are you thinking about? And for how many people? The latter makes a
&gt;&gt; difference since if we invite a large number of people from Stratfor, we
&gt;&gt; would want to make it accessible and relatively work-hour related (so
&gt;&gt; happy hour -- unfortunately as lame as that sounds -- would have to do).
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Alternatively, if you are thinking of something more private and
&gt;&gt; low-key, we could plan for a nice dinner somewhere, or perhaps even
&gt;&gt; better a lunch.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; That said, if we want to really give Lauren something that she (and all
&gt;&gt; of us) would enjoy... how about going and doing something fun... like
&gt;&gt; paintball. Lauren is always talking about how she would kick everyone's
&gt;&gt; ass in paintball. Well... what better way to celebrate her birthday then
&gt;&gt; to let her kill all of us (with paint of course... of course, just
&gt;&gt; paint...).
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; We could also think of some sort of an event on Town Lake.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; I can help you out with these ideas. Just note that I am on vacation in
&gt;&gt; Taos between the 11th and 22nd of March. I will be here for March 23rd
&gt;&gt; -- which I believe is her birthday -- but I will miss the weekend that
&gt;&gt; preceeds it.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Cheers,
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Marko
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; On Thu, Feb 11, 2010 at 9:51 AM, L. Andrew Anderson
&gt;&gt; &lt;L.A.Anderson@hmrshippinguk.net &lt;mailto:L.A.Anderson@hmrshippinguk.net&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; wrote:
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;     Hello Kristen, Marko and Peter,
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;     I apologize for this contact without a proper introduction of such
&gt;&gt;     correspondence. But I understand from Lauren that you would not take
&gt;&gt;     affront to such a gesture.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;     My contact has purpose in that I hope to work with your
&gt;&gt;     “Strat-clique” on plans for Ella’s 30th birthday. I have attempted
&gt;&gt;     to contact Miss Reva, but she must have overlooked my communications.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;     Lauren and I had originally planned on celebrating her Pearl
&gt;&gt;     Anniversary in Italy with your participation, though with the
&gt;&gt;     barrage of engagement and wedding events, she has regrettably
&gt;&gt;     insisted on postponing for one year this trip. This was her idea and
&gt;&gt;     not mine, as I beg your pardon for such anticipation. Also, her
&gt;&gt;     close friend Jennifer shall be giving birth around Ella’s birthday,
&gt;&gt;     so our stubborn Birthday Girl has insisted on spending her day in
&gt;&gt;     the States.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;     I have quite a few ideas stored away though she is adamant about
&gt;&gt;     neglecting this celebration. Thus far, I have rented a private yacht
&gt;&gt;     for us to get away far from land for a few days. Her family has the
&gt;&gt;     obligatory dinner planned the week of her birthday at the River Oaks
&gt;&gt;     Country Club.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;     So I am open to your suggestions and inevitable plotting on what
&gt;&gt;     else we can do, especially among her Stratfor mates. I firmly
&gt;&gt;     believe that we need something outside of my private kidnapping of
&gt;&gt;     her and her family’s stodgy dinner.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;     Let me know if we can work together in this endeavor. I am open to
&gt;&gt;     your suggestions and plotting. I hope you can aide my poor attempts
&gt;&gt;     to please all her requests on such an occasion.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;     Your servant and friend,
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;     L. Andrew
&gt;&gt;     ------------------------------------------------------------------------
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;     Rt. Hon Andrew Anderson
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;           Lord of Kenton Park
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;                Her Majesty The Queen’s Royal Shipping
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;                Anderson Shipping, UK
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;                     Aldwych House, 71-91 Aldwych London, UK WC2B 4HN
&gt;&gt;                     Service: 20.3287.8860
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;      
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;     
</description>
    <date>2010-02-12 21:49:47</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5458821_re-fw-the-letter-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5459805</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - CHECHNYA - last spots of fighting
</title>
    <description>    
   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: One of the top within the Kremlin circle  
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
    
    
   Russian security counter-terrorism operations have started to be cut down,
   but they will remain in the Shali, Vedeno and Shatoi areas in the
   Mountains. This is because there is still some sporadic, but intense
   fighting in those regions. Because of their location in the Mountains, it
   is expected to be one of the last patchy hideouts for fighters.
    
    
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-04-28 14:02:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5459805_insight-chechnya-last-spots-of-fighting-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5459813</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - RUSSIA/BULGARIA - Stanishev's "visit"
</title>
    <description>   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: One of the top within the Kremlin circle  
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
    
   Here are the answers I was told to your questions.
    
   Stanishev arrived Monday though his talks with Medvedev and Putin were
   postponed. This gave him a rare chance to speak with some unusual Russians
   instead.
    
   Talks with Stanishev were exciting and we know he will be motivated to
   change his attitude in the future. He had a sitdown with now only Medvedev
   and Putin finally on Tues, but a nice chat with Luzhkov and his people on
   Monday-if you get my drift. Of course, Russia wasn't all needles and fire,
   but gave some sweets to Bulgaria too with a loan of $5b now being dangled
   in front of Stanishev.
    
   There will most likely be a deal on SouthStream by the end of the May, but
   in all honesty that doesn't matter as much as a deal on Russia controlling
   more of Belene.
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-04-28 14:02:36</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-25 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5459813_insight-russia-bulgaria-stanishev-s-visit-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5462138</id>
    <title>Re: Fwd: Question
</title>
    <description>   No, we're not aware of any concrete connections between fundamentalist
   Islamist movements and the Day of Rage, or the October 2011 movement at
   this point. 

   On 8/18/11 1:17 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

     ?

     -------- Original Message --------

      Subject: Question                                      
         Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2011 10:15:13 -0700 (PDT)         
         From: Thomas Kopecky &lt;tkopecky@fortisworldwide.com&gt; 
     Reply-To: tkopecky@fortisworldwide.com                  
           To: Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;             

     Hi Fred &amp; thanks for those books you signed....my father thought that    
     was a great gift.                                                        
                                                                              
     I was looking into that US Day of Rage movement and specifically asked   
     to connect it to any Saudi or other fundamentalist Islamic movements -   
                                                                              
     Thus far I have only hear rumors but not gotten any substantial          
     connection.                                                              
                                                                              
     Do you guys know much about this other than its US Domestic fiscal       
     ideals ?                                                                 
                                                                              
     thanks                                                                   
                                                                              
     Tom                                                                      
                                                                              
                                                                              
                                                                              
     Thomas Kopecky, Director of Operations                                   
                                                                              
     - Investigative Research Consultants, Inc.                               
                                                                              
     - Fortis Protective Services, LLC                                        
                                                                              
     1 E Wacker Dr. Suite 2300                                                
     Chicago, IL 60601                                                        
     312.832.9600 - office                                                    
                                                                              
     1145 West 5th St. #101                                                   
                                                                              
     Austin, TX 78703                                                         
                                                                              
     512.381.9000                                                             
                                                                              
     800.578.8212 - fax                                                       
                                                                              
     www.ircIntelligence.com                                                  
                                                                              
     www.fortisworldwide.com                                                  
                                                                              
                                                                              
</description>
    <date>2011-08-18 19:29:44</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5462138_re-fwd-question-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5464305</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - RUSSIA - Church succession 
</title>
    <description>   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: sure
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

   Putin wants Metropolitan Kirill to run the church, but will settle for
   Yuvenaly. Kirill is KGB and thought much like Alexy, but is faithful to
   Putin. Yuvenaly wasn't KGB, but is willing to continue that relationship.
   The succession line isn't certain but not as dangerous as it was say 2
   years ago. Alexy made sure to smoke out any that would cause the church to
   break into chaos should he die. There is a competition between Kirill and
   Yuvenaly, but Putin won't allow it to get out of hand.

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2008-12-05 16:01:57</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5464305_insight-russia-church-succession-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5464321</id>
    <title>Re: Routine
</title>
    <description>Yes, I can do that later today, but I'm not aware of any comprehensive
searches, so hopefully the dead person is listed in a major paper and
not a local rag.  I might start with accurint and look for dead people
first.

On 1/5/2010 11:06 AM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
&gt; Can we ck obit death records for lover boy ?
&gt;
&gt; ------Original Message------
&gt; From: Anya Alfano
&gt; To: Fred Burton
&gt; Cc: Korena Zucha
&gt; Subject: Re: Routine
&gt; Sent: Jan 5, 2010 10:02 AM
&gt;
&gt; Isn't the blowback just as bad once the truth comes out and she's still
&gt; here?  Bad precedent, and the game can't go on forever.
&gt;
&gt; On 1/5/2010 11:00 AM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
&gt;   
&gt;&gt; Probably not because of the blowback.  
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; ------Original Message------
&gt;&gt; From: Anya Alfano
&gt;&gt; To: Fred Burton
&gt;&gt; Cc: Korena Zucha
&gt;&gt; Subject: Re: Routine
&gt;&gt; Sent: Jan 5, 2010 9:53 AM
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Is gf on the same track?
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; On 1/5/2010 10:52 AM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt; She's a fabricator.  We need to run her off.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; ------Original Message------
&gt;&gt;&gt; From: Anya Alfano
&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Fred Burton
&gt;&gt;&gt; Cc: Korena Zucha
&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: Re: Routine
&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent: Jan 5, 2010 9:49 AM
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; His life gets 20x more difficult and complicated if her story isn't real
&gt;&gt;&gt; or if she gets fired.  And he's already about to sink.  
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; On 1/5/2010 10:44 AM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; The dude doesn't believe it per GF.  Thinks she walks on water. 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;     
&gt;
&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2010-01-05 17:17:10</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5464321_re-routine-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5464782</id>
    <title>Re: [Fwd: Re: background]
</title>
    <description>Public displays of affection.  Do they look like they're a couple, or
just two people sitting in the same room?

On 1/11/2010 5:13 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt; huh?
&gt;
&gt; Anya Alfano wrote:
&gt;   
&gt;&gt; Any PDA?
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; On 1/11/2010 4:29 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;     
</description>
    <date>2010-01-11 23:14:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5464782_re-fwd-re-background-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5464788</id>
    <title>Re: fyi
</title>
    <description>Would she need a cover for weight loss related to an illness that people
already know about?  And, it makes the fiancee look pretty terrible in
the meantime.  But that could be good cover for when they break up--he
turned out to be so terrible, and she knew he would never accept her
when he told her to lose 40 pounds before they got married. 

On 1/12/2010 1:20 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
&gt; May also be cover for illness weight loss?
&gt;
&gt; ------Original Message------
&gt; From: Anya Alfano
&gt; To: Fred Burton
&gt; Cc: 'korena zucha'
&gt; Cc: Scott Stewart
&gt; Subject: Re: fyi
&gt; Sent: Jan 12, 2010 12:18 PM
&gt;
&gt; Will look around for a castle. 
&gt;
&gt; The 40 pounds story fits the attention seeking patterns of behavior. 
&gt; "Poor Lauren, her fiance told her she has to lose weight...."
&gt;
&gt; On 1/12/2010 1:12 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
&gt;   
&gt;&gt; See what you can find in that town.  She claimed marriage in a castle to me.  I've asked R for more data.  
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Also, she told Susan that the Lord demanded she loose 40 pounds before the wedding...
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; ------Original Message------
&gt;&gt; From: Anya Alfano
&gt;&gt; To: Fred Burton
&gt;&gt; Cc: 'korena zucha'
&gt;&gt; Cc: Scott Stewart
&gt;&gt; Subject: Re: fyi
&gt;&gt; Sent: Jan 12, 2010 12:03 PM
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Has gf sent her away from the week so she can't be confronted while
&gt;&gt; Stick is in town? 
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Church wedding?  The UK has a lot of regulations about foreigners
&gt;&gt; getting married, including church weddings.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; On 1/12/2010 12:53 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt; Aberdineshire, Scotland
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; On Jan 12, 2010, at 11:24 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Do you know the exact location the wedding is supposed to be held?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Reva Bhalla wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;           
&gt;&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;     
&gt;
&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2010-01-12 19:25:37</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5464788_re-fyi-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5465308</id>
    <title>FOR NEW-TERN CATHERINE
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2009-01-06 04:37:37</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5465308_for-new-tern-catherine-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>catherine.durbin@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/126/126613_FSU sweep list.doc</path><size>41472</size><md5></md5><sha1>5f504b22a86e21d054996eec9a56c763f6430ca8</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/126/126616_GV Client List for Team.doc</path><size>44032</size><md5></md5><sha1>3cb219e751d88534b8296db27ea760bd858c2056</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/174/174276_FSU Parliaments.doc</path><size>22528</size><md5></md5><sha1>8de928068b1fb1cfd631a25fb5e0e824f3ddd623</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/174/174277_FSU sites.doc</path><size>46080</size><md5></md5><sha1>782c029b6bb316d660abf800e649bd580506ee07</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/175/175579_GEOPOLITICAL IMPERATIVE - RUSSIA.doc</path><size>535552</size><md5></md5><sha1>522ee9fc8d1574ae578b249e35837e189654810c</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5466187</id>
    <title>[Fwd: [Eurasia] FOR NEW-TERN CATHERINE]
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2009-01-23 22:00:16</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5466187_-fwd-eurasia-for-new-tern-catherine-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/126/126613_FSU sweep list.doc</path><size>41472</size><md5></md5><sha1>5f504b22a86e21d054996eec9a56c763f6430ca8</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/126/126616_GV Client List for Team.doc</path><size>44032</size><md5></md5><sha1>3cb219e751d88534b8296db27ea760bd858c2056</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/174/174276_FSU Parliaments.doc</path><size>22528</size><md5></md5><sha1>8de928068b1fb1cfd631a25fb5e0e824f3ddd623</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/174/174277_FSU sites.doc</path><size>46080</size><md5></md5><sha1>782c029b6bb316d660abf800e649bd580506ee07</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/175/175579_GEOPOLITICAL IMPERATIVE - RUSSIA.doc</path><size>535552</size><md5></md5><sha1>522ee9fc8d1574ae578b249e35837e189654810c</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5468829</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - RUSSIA - Kremlin intrigue chatter
</title>
    <description>   ah, but yes.... I always weigh everything that comes from russia....
   trusted source or not.

   Lauren Goodrich wrote:

     very trusted source who knows not to lie to me ;)
     My guess would be they're planning on how to counter the legal
     moves..... Ustinov is brilliant at this sort of thing and has wanted
     revenge on Chaika for a loooooong time.

     Reva Bhalla wrote:

       but we should still be wary that this info is coming from the Surkov
       clan, right?  any idea what they're up to?
       On Nov 1, 2009, at 3:28 PM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

         CODE: RU101
         PUBLICATION: yes
         ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
         SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Senior within the Kremlin circle -- Surkov  clan
         SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
         ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
         SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

         INSIGHT: Ustinov, Patrushev and Sechin held a meeting late Friday
         into Saturday. They claimed that they were meeting to discuss
         terrorism issues in the Southern Caucasus-something Patrushev has to
         update Medvedev and Putin on this week. But that excuse does not
         explain why Sechin was there, since that has nothing to do with his
         sphere of responsibility.
          
         LG: So we have the head of the FSB, Sechin &amp; the guy who use to be
         the legal wrangler in order to protect pro-FSB businesses (Ustinov,
         who is married to Sechin's daughter) all meeting this weekend.
         Ustinov use to be Prosecutor General till Surkov's right hand Chaika
         booted him out of office. Let the plotting begin.
         --
         Lauren Goodrich
         Director of Analysis
         Senior Eurasia Analyst
         STRATFOR
         T: 512.744.4311
         F: 512.744.4334
         lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
         www.stratfor.com

     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     STRATFOR
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-11-01 23:16:51</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5468829_re-insight-russia-kremlin-intrigue-chatter-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5471016</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - RUSSIA - loooong conver with Deri...
</title>
    <description>   Don't laugh, but.... bc he is still called "son" by Putin... (or so he
   thinks)
   His saving grace may be that Deri has too many connections abroad that are
   useful to the Kremlin (like into European banking or African/Asian
   leaders)

   Peter Zeihan wrote:

     omg -- deri's done

     lauren, grab whatever free trips you can from him

     when an oligarch who insists that he is too big to fail he has entered
     his final days

     does he not realize that his empire is closed for the recession? how
     could he possibly think he's important anymore?

     Lauren Goodrich wrote:

        
        
       **purple parts seem most important to me...
       Though there is a hell-of-a-lot-a info in here for us to consume on
       some of the most important businesses/ppl in Russia and parts of the
       world.
        
       CODE: RU103
       PUBLICATION: certain parts and put in a different way, yes
       ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Moscow
       SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Deripaska 
       SOURCES RELIABILITY: C
       ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
       SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
        
       SUMMARY
        
       What is apparently emerging in the corridors of power is a massive
       transfer of privately held shares to the State that will enable some
       oligarchs to escapethe risk of restructuring imposed by their bankers.
       If this operation succeeds it will once again be a matter of "nice
       work if you can get it".
        
       THE OLIGARCH'S POSITION
        
       Potanin and Deripaska are both in tough financial positions. Deripaska
       has the opinion that he is "too big to fail"... meaning that the
       Russian government can hardly do otherwise than help him (and Potanin
       as well).
        
       METALS SITUATION
        
       So there has been an intensification around a possible merger of
       Norilsk and Rusal, but things have taken an unexpected turn since the
       very public meeting on Jan. 13 in the Kremlin which was attended by
       Medvedev, Deripaska, Potanin (Interros), Prokhorov (Onexim), Usmanov
       (Metalloinvest), Vekselberg (Renova), Voloshin (new Norilsk board
       chief), Chemezov &amp; Seching.
        
       The most probable outcome will be a merger of the two plus
       Metalloinvest and the metallurgical assets of Rostekhnologii (which
       means VSMPO Avisma). The State would hold 25% "plus". It is a highly
       irrelevant set-up, but when has that mattered.
        
       But the scene changed a few days later when Potanin let it be known
       that he had communicated new proposals to the government with a view
       to establishing a Russian equivalent of the Australian mining giant
       BHP Billiton, an idea that is becoming increasingly obsessive in
       Moscow.
        
       The idea(which is co-authored by Oleg Deripaska and backed by Viktor
       Vekselberg) consists of merging around Norilsk Nickel several
       metallurgical groups such as Metalloinvest, Mechel, the Evraz Group
       and even the potassium producer Uralkali that is currently the subject
       of a serious politico-financial battle.
        
       NEW MOVES BY KREMLIN ON COMPANIES
        
       Meanwhile, it is worth noting that Rusal no longer features in this
       potential make-up,  because Deripaska doesn't wish to give up control
       of the aluminium group in these conditions if it means" sacrificing"
       his shareholding in Norilsk.
        
       The brilliant idea behind this new proposal is that Potanin and
       Deripaska are suggesting that the State take over the debts of the
       companies concerned in exchange for a minimum golden share in the new
       conglomerate -- a suggestion that apparently did not figure on the
       agenda of the 13 January meeting in the Kremiln.
        
       In a separate proposal, Deripaska suggested that the State convert
       Rusal's six billion dollar debt to Russian public banks (of the
       group's estimated $17 billion total debt) to "preferential non-voting
       "shares.
        
       THE LOGICAL MERGER
        
       Plain and simple, the mega merger plan as concocted by Potanin does
       not have any clear industrial logic. Clearly, for some oligarchs the
       proposal made to the State is more like a last lifeline than a
       coherent and convincing industrial plan. Integrating steelmakers like
       Mechel and Evraz in a structure made up by Norilsk, Metalloinvest and
       VSMPO Avisma is a very complex undertaking whose synergies are not
       patently obvious.
        
       ASSESSING VALUE OF THE COMPANIES
        
       The media's reference to the Australian group BHP Billiton must be put
       into perspective. The Russian press puts the stock exchange
       capitalization value of the mining and metallurgical group advanced by
       Potanin and Deripaska at $70 to 100 billion. In the present financial
       circumstances this would be jumping the gun.
        
       If the present value of Norilsk Nickel, Mechel, Evraz and Uralkali
       were added together the sum of $14 billion is reached. Supposing that
       the Metalloinvest group were valued at $5 billion (one-third of its
       valuelast summer) the sum of $20 billion is reached to which may be
       added the metallurgical assets of Rosteknologii that are difficult to
       assess since, apart from VSMPO Avisma, it is not easy to comprehend
       its make-up. However, in spite of the fall in raw materials, BHP
       Billiton is still worth around $1 hundredbillion and the Brazilian
       group Vale more than $60 billion or so. Moreover, BHP Billiton was
       built up over time andover the course of 20 years has integrated
       assets, mostly Australian and SouthAfrican. Besides, it is well known
       that it decided against a hostile takeoverof Rio Tinto.
        
       METALS FALLOUT
        
       Norilsk is the main purveyor of wealth and jobs in the Krasnoyarsk
       region and in the Russian Far North, very difficult areas that cannot
       endure the consequences of mass unemployment. The same goes for Rusal
       that controls all Russia's aluminium mills in Siberia and in the
       Urals. But these two groups are experiencing difficult times due to
       the spectacular fall in metal prices. On 20 January, the Norilsk
       Nickel managing director Vladimir Strzhalkovsky indicated that he was
       expecting revenues of $8 million in 2009 compared to $14.3 billion
       expected in 2008, a fall of 44%.
        
       Of course their business analysts believe a net loss of 530 million
       dollars on the basis of an average price of $12,000 a tonne in 2009,
       down from $21,000 in2008. Their view is, "we see no reason to hold
       Norilsk equity".
        
       Rusal must also absorb the fall in aluminium prices and manage
       considerable indebtedness, much of it contracted from foreign banks.
       This is a state of emergency that is behind the return of Derispaska
       to Rusal's operational management when he replaced his old friend and
       associate Alexandre Bulygin on 18 January. His analysts estimate that
       a ton of aluminium produced in Rusal foundries in Russia costs $2.000
       while the current price of the metal is about $1,500 a ton.
        
       MISSING PIECES
        
       By the way, why leave out of the picture two other important Russian
       steelmaking groups like MMK and Severstal? Why not invite to the
       wedding Iskander Makhmudov's UGMK that operates in the copper sector?
       In any case, on 20 January, Alexandre Abramov, the chairman of the
       Evraz group (and along with Roman Abramovich its main shareholder) is
       not in favor such a tie-up. He said that half of his debts had already
       been the subject of a restructuring move and that he was not in any
       great hurry to divest other assets.
        
       REVERSE OF HISTORY
        
       In a word, this means therefore that some of the major Russian
       oligarchs want to put a new winning formula into play: they acquired
       these groups during the wave of privatization moves between 1995 and
       1997, sometimes thanks to "Loan for Share" a scenario invented at the
       time by Vladimir Potanin.
        
       The system enabled oligarchs to loan money to the Russian government
       in exchange for taking as security some of the country's most
       promising industrial assets (and notably Norilsk Nickel). Today they
       are suggesting a complete reversal of that system: after having cashed
       in billions of dollars in dividends since 2005 and hidden away a part
       of the cash flowing from the companies they control into offshore
       structures, they are now simply suggesting that the State take them
       back by converting "stocked" debts into shares in Russian companies,
       some of which are quoted on the LondonStock Exchange. . .
        
       They/We all wager that Sechin and Chemezov are so obsessed by the idea
       of creating a Russian BHP Billiton controlled by the State (and by
       extension by them) that they would be ready to make this gift to the
       oligarchs.
        
       SECHIN &amp; CHEMEZOV'S POV
        
       Sechin and Chemezov are within an inch of succeeding. Moral hazard
       counts for little in Russia. Those who in the Kremlin and the White
       House champion the State taking control of the metallurgical and
       mining assets that they consider to be strategic will examine
       Potanin's proposal without scruples. The exact amount of the
       indebtedness of the companies concerned is not known but even if it is
       evaluated at around $20 - 25 billion, converting it into shares
       reserved to the State is tempting: no cash involved, the prospect to a
       return to better times from the second half of 2009 and the guarantee
       a stranglehold on the country's most important metallurgical and
       mining assets at knockdown prices while sparing those, at least
       temporarily, Deripaska.
        
        
       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       Stratfor
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

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   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-02-03 14:49:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5471016_re-insight-russia-loooong-conver-with-deri-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5475735</id>
    <title>Mini-INSIGHT - RUSSIA - Black August Syndrome 
</title>
    <description>   **this is more for fun.... but wanted to send it on...
   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Senior within the Kremlin circle  
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
   DISTRIBUTION: Eurasia
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

   Have you seen RIA's story on the "Black August Syndrome"?  I would not
   forward such articles if it weren't timely.

   So brace yourself. August is upon us. In Russia, it has been a time of
   coup attempts, debilitating economic crises, financial meltdowns,
   bombings, and wars.

   The trend, of course, started on August 19, 1991, with the attempt to oust
   Gorbachev. For almost two decades, Russians have learned to expect the
   worst from the eighth month of the year, with 1991 seeing a coup and 2008
   war in the Caucasus.

   The other part to add is that Russia's current political era began in
   August. It was on the morning of August 9, 1999 when Yeltsin appointed
   Putin prime minister and anointed him as his chosen successor.

    

   From RIA:

   The litany of August chaos and woe reads like this:

   August 19, 1991 - Communist hardliners disgruntled at Soviet leader
   Mikhail Gorbachev's reforms launch an unsuccessful coup attempt that leads
   to the break-up of the Soviet Union.

   August 14, 1992 - The Georgian-Abkhazian war begins, with the conflict
   involving large numbers of Russian citizens.

   Early August 1994 - The notorious MMM pyramid scheme collapses, leaving
   millions of Russians without their life-savings, a sum believed to be up
   to $1.5 billion.

   August 24, 1995 - The Russian interbank credit system breaks down, leading
   to the ruin of 28 Russian banks.

   August 29, 1996 - A Russian Tupolev TU-154 crashes over the Arctic Ocean,
   all 141 people on board die.

   August 17, 1998 - The Russian government defaults on its foreign and
   domestic debt and the ruble loses two-thirds of its value in the next four
   weeks.

   August 7, 1999 - Chechen fighters invade Dagestan, signaling the start of
   the second Chechen war.

   August 8, 2000 - A bomb explodes in a pedestrian underpass in central
   Moscow killing 13 people.

   August 12, 2000 - The Russian nuclear submarine Kursk sinks in the Barents
   Sea; all 118 sailors on board die.

   August 8, 2002 - Floods and strong winds kill 59 people in the Russian
   Black sea city of Novorossiisk.

   August 19, 2002 - A military Mi-26 helicopter is shot down over Chechnya,
   126 servicemen die.

   August 1, 2003 - A suicide bomber attacks a military hospital in the
   Russian North Ossetia town of Mozdok, killing over 50.

   August 24, 2004 - Two Russian passenger planes are blown up by Chechen
   terrorists, over 90 people die.

   August 31, 2004 - A Chechen suicide bomber blows herself up outside
   Moscow's Rizhskaya metro station, killing 10. The next day, September 1,
   sees the start of the Beslan school siege.

   August 21, 2006 - Nationalists explode a bomb at Moscow's Cherkizovo
   market, killing 13.

   August 22, 2006 - A Russian Tu-154 plane crashes in Ukraine, 170 lose
   their lives.

   August 8-12, 2008 - Russia and Georgia fight a war over South Ossetia
   after Georgian forces attempt to bring the republic back under central
   control.

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-08-03 19:58:26</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5475735_mini-insight-russia-black-august-syndrome-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>watchofficer@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5476531</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - Chechnya - Putin/Kadyrov mtg 
</title>
    <description>   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes, except the second graf
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Senior within the Kremlin circle, deals daily with
   security issues and folks  
   SOURCE PLACEMENT: High
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
    
    
   Putin and Kadyrov had a productive visit. Kadyrov vowed to keep his
   country in order and there will be a new series of covert actions inside
   of Chechnya over the next few weeks. Putin does not want the more public
   sweeps because of all of the poor press the Caucasus is receiving with the
   reporter and ngo assassinations.
    
   I should hedge that I can not say much on this topic, but the recent ngo
   assassinations are not exactly random. There is a campaign by Kadyrov to
   clamp down on any organization receiving grants from foreign donors at the
   moment. Kadryrov is ensuring that money isn't flowing to the wrong places,
   even if the campaigns  [LG: I would prefer not to publish this part]
    
   They also discussed how to continue handling Ingushetia. Until now, the
   Russians have left it mostly up to the Chechens. The Chechens have carried
   out significant operations in Ingushetia since the assassination attempt
   on the President. The operations that have taken place thus far in
   Ingushetia since June have been well planned and executed. From now on,
   Kadyrov's troops are responsible for operations near the border in the
   particularly tricky enclaves of Sunzhensky and Achkhoi-Martanovsky.  
    
   Russia is shifting some of its remaining forces that are still in the
   Caucasus into Ingushetia this week. The Kremlin has divided Ingushtia into
   various special-operation zones in which the insurgency has escalated.
   Russian troops are responsible for the more western regions near North
   Ossetia-the less difficult regions in my opinion, though it does limit how
   far the Chechens can move into the country, as well as, the backlash from
   some Ingush factions against the Chechen presence.  
    
   Did you hear of the one case this past week where a Voznesenskaya villager
   was killed as a sorceress? How is this region a challenge to us again?
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-08-25 16:46:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5476531_insight-chechnya-putin-kadyrov-mtg-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>watchofficer@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5480480</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - RUSSIA - Nashi militias 
</title>
    <description>    

   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Senior within the Kremlin circle  
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts, CT, Briefers  
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Just a small crumb that I thought you would find humorous. Nashi is
   concerned over any social unrest hitting the streets over the economic
   situation. They have now been given permission to form militias, made up
   of youths armed with stun guns, to patrol Russia's streets to quell
   potential unrest. They are being armed by their leader. I'm sure the stun
   guns is just what they will start with and this will formalize more in the
   future.

    

    

    

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-08-12 22:12:08</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5480480_insight-russia-nashi-militias-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>watchofficer@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5482669</id>
    <title>Cyber Security Question...
</title>
    <description>   Hey boys!
   Veni Markovski (Bulgaria's richest man, head of ICAAN &amp; advisor to the US
   and EU on cyber stuff) is a pal of mine and wants to chat with Stratfor's
   person/people on cyber security. He's super low maintenance and friendly.
   Think he just wants to open diolague for y'all to be able to ask questions
   to him (he's a big Strat-fan). Who would like to speak with him? I can set
   it up so two people conference with him on the phone. Or if Nate has time,
   Veni does hold a house in DC.
   Let me know!
   Lauren
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-02-11 02:52:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5482669_cyber-security-question-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>nathan.hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5482958</id>
    <title>Greetings my Wedding Party members:
</title>
    <description>   Hey you two.... I forgot as I began to send this out as my normal email
   address that you two aren't use to seeing my usual name on email, so I'm
   sending via my Strat account instead...... anyway... here's the message I
   sent to the others.... I shall get you into the Elizabeth swing of my name
   this next month, but didn't want to change me getting swept into spam
   right now:

   My darling Wedding Party,

   I have been asked by my Wedding Party orchestrators to connect with each
   member and ask if they would prefer to be contacted by the foresaid
   coordinator by email, mail or phone (the latter being the least
   desirable)-- in order to coordinate all engagement/wedding arrangements.
   Please reply to me with what you prefer. Also reply with what contact
   information you prefer to have connected through (ie, your address or
   email).

   We're sending out some very rustic and preliminary information this week.

   Blessed be those that go through this process with Andrew and I,
   Thank you all!
   Ella
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-01-11 07:40:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5482958_greetings-my-wedding-party-members-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kristen.cooper@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5485312</id>
    <title>Re: [Military] [CT]   Woodward - Obama's Wars ** oh my...
</title>
    <description>Agree.  Our efforts in Afghanistan have been a failure (no offense to
you and your personal heroic efforts.)  To think we can defeat the
Afghanis is like thinking we can stop the flow of drugs into CONUS.  

The blow-back against the Barry Hussein WH will be via diplomatic
channels as Woodwards statements and book reviews echo around the
world.  Plants the seed of doubt and distrust in the minds of foreign
govts as we try to hold talks.    Regardless of what you may think of
Woodward, folks listen to what he has to say. 

Timing of his book release was brilliant.   Another NY Times bestseller. 

Benjamin Sledge wrote:
&gt; Hardly news, but the question looms, with what Obama's doing and like
&gt; he said in that report, do we really want to be locked into
&gt; Afghanistan for another 10 years?  While a quagmire, we have to wonder
&gt; what the best course of action in Afghanistan would be.  My personal
&gt; opinion is pull conventional troops and let USASOCCOM and the CIA have
&gt; a freakin field day and continue covert operations.  Pit guerilla
&gt; warfare against guerilla warfare and keep the American tax payer none
&gt; the wiser as to what ruthless methods we used to gather intel and
&gt; curtail radical Islamic terrorism
&gt; -- 
&gt; BENJAMIN
&gt; SLEDGE
&gt; Senior Graphic Designer
&gt; www.stratfor.com
&gt; (e) ben.sledge@stratfor.com
&gt; (ph) 512.744.4320
&gt; (fx) 512.744.4334
&gt;
&gt; On Sep 22, 2010, at 8:02 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;
&gt;&gt; I'm sure Foggy Bottom wires are on over-drive denying any of the
&gt;&gt; information as true.   Our lovely Paki allies (ugh) will be "highly
&gt;&gt; distraught".  The back-channels from USEMB IBAD will cause constipation
&gt;&gt; amongst the bow-ties.  I also like the way this has been timed for
&gt;&gt; UNGA.   All first term Presidencies are chaos.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; Sean Noonan wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt; very little of this actually seems like news.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/sep/22/obama-presidency-hobbled-discord-book
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; The Obama presidency is hobbled by discord and mutual contempt
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; among its
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; senior policy-makers and top generals according to a new book which is
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; likely to damage the administration in November's congressional
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; elections and undermine its efforts in Afghanistan.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; The book, Obama's Wars, by the veteran investigative journalist Bob
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Woodward, is out on Monday, but extracts published overnight by the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Washington Post and the New York Times make it clear that it will hurt
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; the administration in the runup to mid-term elections, in which
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Democrats are already struggling and in which they are expected to lose
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; control of the House of Representatives.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; The book also portrays a president anxious to pull US troops out of
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Afghanistan as soon as possible, and at odds with his military
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; commanders and some senior advisers, who openly question whether his
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; strategy will work. It is likely to be read as evidence that the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; attempt
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; to divide the Taliban is having more success dividing Washington.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Woodward appears to have had access to secret memos and accounts of
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; sensitive discussions within the administration as it tried to
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; decide on
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; its Afghanistan strategy a year ago. It is already known that the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; generals asked for more troops than the 30,000 finally agreed by Obama,
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; and that vice-president Joe Biden argued for a more limited war effort
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; aimed principally at targeting al-Qaida. Woodward reveals that Obama
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; resolved the dispute by designing his blueprint, a six-page document
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; which he presented to his White House staff on 29 November. It approved
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; the extra troops but laid down sharp restrictions on what the military
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; could and could not do in Afghanistan.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; "This needs to be a plan about how we're going to hand it off and get
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; out of Afghanistan," Obama is reported to have said. "Everything we're
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; doing has to be focused on how we're going to get to the point where we
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; can reduce our footprint. It's in our national security interest. There
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; cannot be any wiggle room."
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; He is also quoted as telling the defence secretary, Robert Gates, and
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; the secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, in late October last year:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; "I'm
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; not doing 10 years … I'm not doing long-term nation-building. I am not
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; spending a trillion dollars."
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; The book reveals that senior officials harboured doubts over
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; whether the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; "hybrid" plan would work. Biden warned that escalation would mean
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; "we're
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; locked into Vietnam". Lieutenant General Douglas Lute, the president's
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Afghanistan adviser, is described as believing that the strategy review
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; carried out by the administration did not "add up" to the decision
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; ultimately made. Richard Holbrooke, the president's special
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, is quoted as saying that
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; the strategy "can't work".
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Among the other revelations made by Obama's Wars:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; • US intelligence reported to the White House that the Afghan
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; president,
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Hamid Karzai, was suffering from manic depression, and was taking
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; medication.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; • Obama believes that the US can "absorb" another terrorist attack. He
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; told Woodward: "We'll do everything we can to prevent it, but even a
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; 9/11, even the biggest attack ever … we absorbed it and we are
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; stronger".
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; • The CIA has set up a 3,000-man Afghan paramilitary unit, known as the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Counterterrorism Pursuit Teams, used for covert cross-border operations
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; against al-Qaida and Taliban havens.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; • US intelligence told Obama that Pakistan was not a reliable
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; partner in
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; the Afghan conflict, either unwilling or unable to stop elements in its
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; own intelligence service from supporting the Afghan insurgents.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Obama is
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; quoted as saying: "We need to make clear to people that the cancer
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; is in
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Pakistan."
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; One of the most striking elements of Woodward's account is the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; ferocious
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; backbiting among senior members of Obama's team.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; During disputes over the Afghanistan strategy, General David Petraeus,
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; then head of Central Command, told his aides that the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; administration was
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; "[expletive] with the wrong guy". Petraeus describes David Axelrod, the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; president's top political adviser, as "a complete spin doctor". The
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; national security adviser, James Jones, refers to the White House
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; political team as "the water bugs," the "politburo," the "mafia,"
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; or the
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; "campaign set".
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; -- 
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Sean Noonan
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Tactical Analyst
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Office: +1 512-279-9479
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; www.stratfor.com &lt;http://www.stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;
</description>
    <date>2010-09-22 17:28:14</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-04-24 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5485312_re-military-ct-woodward-obama-s-wars-oh-my-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>military@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:military@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5485587</id>
    <title>New-tern info
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2008-09-03 16:44:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5485587_new-tern-info-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>christya.parobii@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/126/126613_FSU sweep list.doc</path><size>41472</size><md5></md5><sha1>5f504b22a86e21d054996eec9a56c763f6430ca8</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/126/126616_GV Client List for Team.doc</path><size>44032</size><md5></md5><sha1>3cb219e751d88534b8296db27ea760bd858c2056</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/174/174277_FSU sites.doc</path><size>46080</size><md5></md5><sha1>782c029b6bb316d660abf800e649bd580506ee07</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/175/175579_GEOPOLITICAL IMPERATIVE - RUSSIA.doc</path><size>535552</size><md5></md5><sha1>522ee9fc8d1574ae578b249e35837e189654810c</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5485797</id>
    <title>Re: Greetings from Stratfor
</title>
    <description>   Dar Veni,
   My humblest apologies, but your email was blocked by my email filters, but
   I have that fixed now.
   I am available to speak with you on your time since I know you are
   traveling.
   My cell phone number is 281-460-9382.
   Just let me know about when you'll call and I'll make myself available.
   Apologies again on missing your initial email,
   Lauren

   Veni Markovski wrote:

     Dear Laureen,
     we've exchanged some emails, and last I wrote you that I'd be happy to
     talk to you, but didn't get a return email as to when is good time.

     I am in New York only today and tomorrow, leaving again for
     Russia/Turkmenistan/Bulgaria.

     Please, advise.

     veni

     At 01:46 PM 8/14/2008  -0500, you wrote:

       Mr. Markovski,

       Fred Burton passed along your information to me, saying you were
       interested in speaking to someone at Stratfor who deals with the
       region. Sorry for the delay in contacting you, but the war took all my
       attention I admit.

       I am the Senior Eurasia analyst and admit to having recognized your
       name off the bat. I know you do much business all around Eurasia,
       especially Eastern Europe and Russia. I would love to hear your
       thoughts on the recent events, especially since you are so deeply
       hooked into the region.

       Let me know when you would like to chat; my email and contact number
       is below.

       Cheers,
       Lauren
       --
       Lauren E. Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       Stratfor
       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       &lt;mailto:lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2008-09-09 19:19:48</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5485797_re-greetings-from-stratfor-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>veni@veni.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5486602</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - RUSSIA - Deripaska's business 
</title>
    <description>   CODE: RU103
   PUBLICATION: sure
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Moscow
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Deripaska
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: high (esp bc this is about himself)
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:  Analysts
   HANDLER: Lauren
    
   A few things from my Deripaska dinner...
    
   ON RUSAL &amp; THE STATE
    
   Deripaska has a special deal with the state on Rusal now that not only
   keeps him in power, but will ensure Rusal is the focus of the state in the
   long term.
    
   As publicized, Deripaska is putting 10 percent of his stakes on the
   market. This will drop his shares by 10 percent from 57 percent down to 47
   percent. Seven percent of that will be sold openly and the State via VEB
   will take 3 percent.
    
   The deal cut is for Deripaska and VEB to jointly run their shares
   together, keeping Deripaska the acting manager of Rusal-a little gift from
   the State. But it also ensures that the State has a say in Deripaska's
   work and the future of Rusal. The State has deemed Rusal a highly
   strategic and critical company in which they wish to always have a hand
   in.
    
   A few other details, most of which are public... Deripaska owns $16.8
   billion to over 70 banks. VEB gave Deripaska $4.5 billion and could give
   another $625 million. Prokhorov has already reached a deal to swap some of
   the debt for 5.2 percent of shares, raising his share to 19.2 percent.
    
   OTHER PROJECTS
    
   Deripaska is also looking to buy a major chunk of Austrian construction
   firm Strabag (LG: which I have seen building alllll over Moscow right now,
   moreso than Luzkhov's construction firms-which is hilarious). He has until
   Oct 2010 to buy the firm. Strabag has had serious problems with "Moscow
   authorities"... meaning Luzhkov. If Deripaska buys it, then Luzhkov would
   have a heavy adversary in the construction field. Deripaska already owns
   Transstroi, so its work with Strabag is only natural.
    
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-12-10 21:03:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5486602_insight-russia-deripaska-s-business-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>watchofficer@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5486786</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - RUSSIA - no one wants to be on Forbes List
</title>
    <description>   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: One of the top within the Kremlin circle  
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

   It has now been deemed in Russia that if one flaunts their wealth at times
   like these then they are "unpatriotic." Forbes has been inundated with
   phone calls to not include them on the Billionairea**s list. In Russia it
   is highly unfashionable to be on the Forbes list for 3 reasons. First off,
   it is actually not really part of Russian culture/mentality originally to
   flash the cash around. This is something that came with the Oligarchs
   under Yeltsin. Secondly, as the  mentality is shifting back to the former
   (anti-flash) lifestyles, the Oligarchs are looked down upon. For example,
   it is considered better to be like Putin who still drives his fathera**s
   Lada from the 1970s (LG: *eye roll*). That is why the silovarchs are more
   accepted now and the oligarchs are looked down upon. People are hurting
   inside of Russia and so no one looks well upon unnecessary extravagance.
   Third, those that are left with money inside of Russia dona**t want the
   government to know about it, so the Forbes list is now considered an
   impending death list.
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-03-19 11:49:36</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5486786_insight-russia-no-one-wants-to-be-on-forbes-list-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kevin.stech@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5486913</id>
    <title>Strat-subscription for a source?
</title>
    <description>   Hey John...
   May I get a subscription for my source?
   Name: Veni Markovski
   Email: Veni@Veni.com
   Thanks so much!!
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2008-10-17 15:05:56</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5486913_strat-subscription-for-a-source-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gibbons@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5487384</id>
    <title>RE: Strat-subscription for a source?
</title>
    <description>   Hey Lauren,

    

   This guy is done.  Username is the email address and the password is
   stratfor (all lower case)

    

    

   John Gibbons

   Stratfor

   Customer Service Manager

   T: +1-512-744-4305

   F: +1-512-744-4334

   gibbons@stratfor.com

   www.stratfor.com

    

    

   From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, October 17, 2008 8:06 AM
   To: John Gibbons; Lauren Goodrich
   Subject: Strat-subscription for a source?

    

   Hey John...
   May I get a subscription for my source?
   Name: Veni Markovski
   Email: Veni@Veni.com
   Thanks so much!!

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2008-11-03 21:04:35</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5487384_re-strat-subscription-for-a-source-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gibbons@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5488026</id>
    <title>RE: Story
</title>
    <description>   Tony, I do love your optimism but I expect many more Bilals.  The money
   for you is of course a different situation since you are on the Stratfor
   team.  I am not too worried.  What I do need is some time for one of your
   initial recruits to provide something good.  Something I can take in to
   the meeting with the Financial officer  :)   You know the routine.
    

   V/R Bob Rushing

     -----Original Message-----
     From: tony [mailto:atsullivan4321@comcast.net]
     Sent: Monday, January 17, 2005 11:27 AM
     To: Bob Rushing
     Subject: Re: Story

     Bob:
      
     Not at all a problem.  I know that this goes with the business.  He is
     actually telling us a lot that we need to know (about himself!).
      
     However, I do hope for dramatically better results from all or most of
     my other recruitees.  Now, I have done what I can to communicate with
     all of them, and you and Anya have of course been copied on everything. 
     I will not say more about these folks, and will leave it to Anya and you
     to get them what they need to have, as soon and as appropriately as
     possible.
      
     Bilal aside, I do think we have an outstanding group, at least
     potentially.  I am sorry and embarrassed that the first of my recruitees
     (Bilal) turned out to be such a pain.  My guess is that things will go
     radically better with most of the others.
      
     Now, I think we need to think about what my future travel schedule will
     be, and when.
      
     One small point.  (Actually, not so small).  Unless I am mistaken, Ron
     set aside something like $6000 for 12 months for my travel.  That was
     well before you appeared on the scene, and we started to talk the way we
     now are.  Depending on both short and long-term plans, that figure may
     need to be revisited.
      
     We make a GREAT team!
      
     Tony
      
     Tony
      
     ginal Message -----

       From: Bob Rushing
       To: tony
       Sent: Monday, January 17, 2005 11:48 AM
       Subject: RE: Story
       Sorry this guy is so annoying for you Tony.  There will be a lot of
       this as we go.  Another reason to get you out of the traffic as soon
       as we can.  You get paid to find potential, I get paid to deal with
       their silliness.  I don't have the time or money to do your travel and
       you probably don't have my patience for this.  I have been digging
       thru hundreds to find the one or two all my adult life.
        
       We make a good team. 
        
       next time you go out we will send you fully loaded to Spot,
       Recruit, give a Hushmail and say bye bye.  Your job should be fun.
        

       V/R Bob Rushing

         -----Original Message-----
         From: tony [mailto:atsullivan4321@comcast.net]
         Sent: Monday, January 17, 2005 10:26 AM
         To: Bob Rushing
         Subject: Re: Story

         Bob:
          
         Thanks much!
          
         Tony

           ----- Original Message -----
           From: Bob Rushing
           To: tony ; Bilalkinguk
           Cc: Anya E Harshey
           Sent: Monday, January 17, 2005 10:56 AM
           Subject: RE: Story
           Bilal,
            
           We have known for some time that he is dead.  I doubt you will
           find anyone willing to reward you for the details of his death but
           you never know...I do wish you the best.  As for Stratfor I have
           explained how we do business here and I am sorry it does not work
           for you.  Unfortunately you are a new source and I won't invest
           money in a unknown/unproven source. 
            
           Your future situation is as it has always been concerning
           Stratfor.  Once it has been determined that you have provided
           legitimate information that was difficult or impossible for us to
           get anywhere else, you begin your personal history with us.  I do
           not even seriously consider compensation until that has
           occurred.  
            
           I look forward to reviewing any information you have to submit at
           some future date.

           V/R Bob Rushing

             -----Original Message-----
             From: Bilalkinguk [mailto:bilalkinguk@yahoo.co.uk]
             Sent: Monday, January 17, 2005 1:23 AM
             To: tony; Bob Rushing
             Subject: Story

             I understand, but I am afraid if I give them my info about the
             story they would claim that they had this info as they said for
             the first story. I can tell them just one thing about that man,
             he has been killed. I will not give  more details before I know
             my reward and my future situation.
             Best
             Bilal

             tony &lt;atsullivan4321@comcast.net&gt; wrote:

               THey simply cannot do that until you have A:READY establidhed
               a credible
               record. I have already asked.

               As I told you before, they do not yet believe that the story
               you mention is
               credible. As I said before. That is the simple fact of the
               matter.

               ----- Original Message -----
               From: "Bilalkinguk"
               To: "tony"
               Sent: Sunday, January 16, 2005 2:36 PM
               Subject: Travel

               &gt; Thanks, I think if they are interested in that story
               &gt; they should pay my travel expenses asap to come there
               &gt; and provide it to them.
               &gt; Bilal
               &gt;&gt;
               &gt;&gt; I think now we are finally getting everything
               &gt;&gt; together.
               &gt;&gt;
               &gt;&gt; Hussein
               &gt;&gt; ----- Original Message -----
               &gt;&gt; From: "Bilalkinguk"
               &gt;&gt; To: "tony"
               &gt;&gt; Sent: Sunday, January 16, 2005 11:37 AM
               &gt;&gt; Subject: Re: Reminder
               &gt;&gt;
               &gt;&gt;
               &gt;&gt; &gt; Let's stay in touch through this email address.
               &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; From: "Bilalkinguk"
               &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; To: "tony"
               &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; Sent: Monday, January 10, 2005 12:40 PM
               &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; Subject: Re: Reminder
               &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt;
               &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt;
               &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; &gt; Okay looking forward to hear from you later
               &gt;&gt; today.
               &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; &gt;
               &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt;
               &gt;&gt; &gt;
               &gt;&gt;
               &gt; ___________________________________________________________
               &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; &gt;&gt; &gt; ALL-NEW Yahoo! Messenger - all new features
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</description>
    <date>2005-01-17 18:52:17</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-15 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5488026_re-story-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>harshey@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>rushing@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>atsullivan4321@comcast.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5490379</id>
    <title>China - Foxconn suicides?
</title>
    <description>   Do we have any more insight about what's going on in these cases? 

   -------- Original Message --------

    Subject: [CT] CHINA/TAWIAN/SECURITY - Another Foxconn employee commits    
             suicide in southern China city                                   
       Date: Wed, 12 May 2010 02:02:06 -0500 (CDT)                            
       From: Chris Farnham &lt;chris.farnham@stratfor.com&gt;                       
   Reply-To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;                                         
         To: os &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;                                             
         CC: eastasia &lt;eastasia@stratfor.com&gt;, ct &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;           

   Some one offing these people? Spying for Taiwan or another country, maybe?
   [chris]
   http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2010-05/12/c_13290149.htm

   Another Foxconn employee commits suicide in southern China city            

   English.news.cn   2010-05-12     [IMG]Feedback[IMG]Print[IMG]RSS[IMG][IMG] 
   14:14:06                         

   SHENZHEN, May 12 (Xinhua) -- Another employee with Foxconn Technology
   Group has died after falling from a rented apartment in the southern city
   of Shenzhen Tuesday evening, company sources and local police said
   Wednesday.

   This is the sixth death by suicide from falling of a Foxconn employee, two
   other employees have been hurt after trying to kill themselves. All the
   cases have happened since the beginning of the year.

   The deceased, a 24-year-old woman surnamed Zhu, died at around 7:00 p.m.
   Tuesday. A native of central China's Henan Province, she joined Foxconn in
   August 2009.

   Zhu was on leave when she jumped out of her rented apartment at
   Shuidouxincun of Longhua Neighborhood. Her mother was visiting Zhu in
   Shenzhen after traveling down from her hometown in Henan.

   Company sources said Foxconn, a unit of Taiwan electronics giant Hon Hai,
   was very concerned about the death. But no formal company statement had
   been issued yet out of respect for the deceased and her family, the
   sources said.

   The police are investigating into the death.

   No further details are presently available.

   The most recent death until Zhu's, was a 23-year-old male Foxconn employee
   on March 29. He threw himself from the 14th floor of a dormitory building
   in the Longhua Industrial Park of Shenzhen.

   Foxconn is the foremost provider of joint-design, joint-development,
   manufacturing, assembly and after-sales services to global computer,
   communications and consumer electronics companies.

   In its Longhua manufacturing base in Shenzhen, Foxconn employs more than
   300,000 workers.

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Watch Officer/Beijing Correspondent , STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-05-12 14:04:21</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-19 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5490379_china-foxconn-suicides-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eastasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5492226</id>
    <title>Re: for today
</title>
    <description>   Obama doesn't get to Moscow until Monday... not Sunday.
   I'll have the schedule for you in a few hours.

   Peter Zeihan wrote:

      

     Light day today. Two things to keep in mind.

      

     1)      Tomorrow is a weekend, so ideally we would like a piece to post
     Friday and Saturday morning. The Saturday piece should be a Q&amp;D guide to
     the Obama-Putin summit that begins on Sunday. Any ideas for what we
     could do for Friday?

     2)      All regional analysts touch base with Reva today to have a chat
     on all things quarterly. We can't produce the document until after the
     summit, but we want to make sure we have as many ducks in a row as we
     possibly can before Monday.

      

      

      

      

     JAPAN MOVING SOME TROOPS - 1

     Good opportunity to produce a brief on Japan's evolving defense posture.

      

     TURKISH NAVAL ORDER OF BATTLE - ?

     Not for today most likely, but we need to do a top-to-bottom review of
     the Turkish military. The navy is a good place as any to begin.

      

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-07-02 16:16:12</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-11 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5492226_re-for-today-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5492675</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - RUSSIA - FSB as watchdogs during crisis
</title>
    <description>   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: One of the top within the Kremlin circle, though from
   Surkov's clan.  
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
    
   The FSB is about to step into the banking system and certain businesses to
   make sure what they are reporting as far as assets, revenues and holdings
   (esp foreign currency) are correct. This will be a mass deployment of
   forces within the business and financial sectors. They will act as
   observers to how the banks and businesses use what they are loaned. Just
   the presence of the FSB within these firms will be a deterrent for those
   who wish to cheat the state or get rich off the crisis.
    
   LG: does Russia have enough manpower within the FSB to handle this?
    
   Of course. But then those guilty will be sorted into those that need
   punishment (in which the FSB or ProsGen office will handle them or those
   that need to be reformed.

   **have asked him if this also includes foreign firms... have not heard
   back yet.
    
    
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-02-05 15:20:54</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5492675_insight-russia-fsb-as-watchdogs-during-crisis-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>mfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>briefers@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5493154</id>
    <title>[Eurasia] For the New-Terns
</title>
    <description>9</description>
    <date>2008-06-27 20:58:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5493154_-eurasia-for-the-new-terns-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/126/126613_FSU sweep list.doc</path><size>41472</size><md5></md5><sha1>5f504b22a86e21d054996eec9a56c763f6430ca8</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/126/126616_GV Client List for Team.doc</path><size>44032</size><md5></md5><sha1>3cb219e751d88534b8296db27ea760bd858c2056</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/177/177181_GEOPOLITICAL IMPERATIVE - RUSSIA.doc</path><size>535552</size><md5></md5><sha1>efb729cc76231c49c38dd6da86b371d072452743</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5494566</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - RUSSIA - corruption &amp; state finances 
</title>
    <description>   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: One of the top within the Kremlin circle  
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
    
   The PG office estimates that $120 billion was lost in 2008 to corruption
   out of the annual budget, while this next year it is looking to trend to
   $240 billion because of the recession. Western groups look at this via
   Russia's size, influence of the bureaucracy, compromised court system and
   lack of independent media.
    
   However the Kremlin (both Putin and Medvedev) are looking at fighting this
   corruption to help with the government's financial problems. The
   government can hardly hope to mitigate the crisis if one-third or more of
   its anticrisis money is being siphoned right off the top.
    
   The PG office is looking at a few different ways to counter corruption (on
   Putin and Medvedev's order) including forcing state officials to issue
   asset declarations and comparing it to the FSB's assessment, especially as
   Russia has been looking at Russian assets in global tax havens.
    
    
    
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-03-18 20:59:13</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5494566_insight-russia-corruption-and-state-finances-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kevin.stech@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5495888</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - Russia's view of Moldova's revolution
</title>
    <description>   I hear you.... Moldova has Romania's involvement written all over it
   though

   Reva Bhalla wrote:

     just seems a little odd that we have this seemingly Western-backed color
     revolution take place in Moldova the same week that we have a
     Russian-backed revolution in Georgia...
     maybe Russia could have stirred things up in Moldova to give it free
     rein to act elsewhere..? i dunno, just thinking aloud
     On Apr 8, 2009, at 2:28 PM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

       problem is their placement in Moldova... their military presence in
       Transdneistria is tough to move into Moldova proper bc a river
       separates the two regions iwth only 1 bridge.
       Could this be a sneaky propaganda move? sure. but hard for russia to
       do much overtly, though it has tons of covert tentacles on the ground.

       Reva Bhalla wrote:

         i know this is conspirational, but what if the Russians actually
         started things up in Moldova to give it an excuse to take more
         aggressive action in the region?
         On Apr 8, 2009, at 10:31 AM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

           CODE: RU101
           PUBLICATION: yes
           ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
           SOURCE DESCRIPTION: One of the top within the Kremlin circle  
           SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
           ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
           SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
            
           Duma discussed today the fact that Russian intelligence services
           believe that US and Romanian intelligence forces worked together
           to spark and influence the situation in Moldova. The West could
           not stand Moldova being neutral ground to they have once again
           created mayhem to get what it wants. One topic discussed in Duma
           was that Romania is looking to break Moldova apart and most likely
           take what is left for itself.
            
            
           --
           Lauren Goodrich
           Director of Analysis
           Senior Eurasia Analyst
           STRATFOR
           T: 512.744.4311
           F: 512.744.4334
           lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
           www.stratfor.com

       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       STRATFOR
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-04-08 21:39:26</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5495888_re-insight-russia-s-view-of-moldova-s-revolution-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5496389</id>
    <title>[Fwd: New-tern info]
</title>
    <description>2</description>
    <date>2008-09-03 16:48:06</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5496389_-fwd-new-tern-info-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/126/126613_FSU sweep list.doc</path><size>41472</size><md5></md5><sha1>5f504b22a86e21d054996eec9a56c763f6430ca8</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/126/126616_GV Client List for Team.doc</path><size>44032</size><md5></md5><sha1>3cb219e751d88534b8296db27ea760bd858c2056</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/174/174277_FSU sites.doc</path><size>46080</size><md5></md5><sha1>782c029b6bb316d660abf800e649bd580506ee07</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/175/175579_GEOPOLITICAL IMPERATIVE - RUSSIA.doc</path><size>535552</size><md5></md5><sha1>522ee9fc8d1574ae578b249e35837e189654810c</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5496794</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - Perspective from Relief Agency on Swine Flu....
</title>
    <description>   Fred and I are starting an Intern antiviral lab... the meds won't work,
   but those that buy them won't know it

   Fred Burton wrote:

     Give/sell my arse.  This is Russia.  We steal. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Tuesday, April 28, 2009 12:42 PM
     To: Fred Burton
     Cc: 'Secure List'; 'EurAsia AOR'; 'Kristen Cooper'; 'Bayless Parsley';
     'Kevin Stech'
     Subject: Re: INSIGHT - Perspective from Relief Agency on Swine Flu....
     I already have calls into UTMB and Methodist to see if they have any
     "extras" they're willing to give/sell me

     Fred Burton wrote:

       Good way for Russian OC to make money.  Knock off a few Tamiflu loads
       or make your own and sell it as Tamiflu.   On that note, we need our
       own stash of Tamiflu.  Call Ivan and get us a case or two. 
        

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
       Sent: Tuesday, April 28, 2009 12:37 PM
       To: 'Secure List'; EurAsia AOR; Kristen Cooper; Bayless Parsley; Kevin
       Stech
       Subject: INSIGHT - Perspective from Relief Agency on Swine Flu....
       **this is an email thread that has been ongoing since around 4am this
       morning between my assistant within my foundation in Russia and I....
       just thought you would like to see this through the eyes of someone
       who has a Relief Aid Organization abroad and how the government in
       Russia is also looking at it.
        
        
       ASSISTANT: I was contacted by the Emergency Services, who say they are
       taking stock of each medical facility's antiviral levels.
        
       ME: Sounds like a huge task by them. I am shocked by them reacting so
       fast on this but can't imagine the scope of doing so in Russia.
        
       ASSISTANT: Actually, most medical facilities here have state
       representatives except for the ten or so privately owned medical
       centers in the country-four of which fall under your Foundation.
        
       ME: ah, so I'm being hunted down for my medical supplies... great.
        
       ASSISTANT: didn't seem like they were hunting, but just wanting
       numbers of antivirals in case of the outbreak comes here.
        
       ME: that's hunting... if I give them a number then my facilities "get
       broken into"
        
       ASSISTANT: true. But they specifically wanted to know if you had stock
       of tamiflu and the other one that starts with an R.
        
       ME: When I spoke with Kremlin pals earlier today, they said that
       Russia had large stockpiles of Tamiflu on hand because of the Avian
       crisis in 06.
        
       ASSISTANT: They probably just want to make sure they know where it all
       is just in case this becomes a large epidemic.
        
       ME: true. Also, if it is a major epidemic my 6K kids can die for all
       they care... as long as the silovarchs are safe. Do we even have
       Tamiflu stockpiles? I thought it was too expensive, so we went with
       something else.
        
       ASSISTANT: no Tamiflu or the other. We only have Amadtadine and
       Symmetrel. The poor people's drugs.
        
       ME: did you tell them that?
        
       ASSISTANT: yes and then they didn't want to know how much of that we
       had. Apparently our lowly medicine is no good.
        
       ME: great... on the one hand this will prevent my facilities from
       being broken into this week, but on the other hand should Swine Flu
       hit Siberia, my orphanages will look like Jonestown.
        
       ASSISTANT: What's Jonestown?
        
       ME: Google it.
        
        
        
       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       STRATFOR
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     STRATFOR
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-04-28 19:52:27</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5496794_re-insight-perspective-from-relief-agency-on-swine-flu-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kristen.cooper@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kevin.stech@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bayless.parsley@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5498748</id>
    <title>Re: Stratfor's Kremlin Model
</title>
    <description>   telling surkov no and not providing an alternative?

   that's just suicide

   Lauren Goodrich wrote:

     as long as you give me options for fun

     Peter Zeihan wrote:

       all the time i bet -- you can't kill x, but feel free to have fun with
       y

       Lauren Goodrich wrote:

         does Medvedev ever tell Surkov that? Always squashing my fun. :-(

         Peter Zeihan wrote:

           no executions of the analysts

           we have some extra researchers however....

             Lauren Goodrich wrote:

               I like this game... can I really make the order?

               Marko Papic wrote:

                 Hmmm... I don't really care whether you live or die... In
                 fact, I find your chess prowess a good substitute of
                 otherworldly manliness in your otherwise wimpy persona.
                 Nonetheless, if ordered by my puppet master, I will make
                 your internal organs slowly bleed you to death.

                 ----- Original Message -----
                 From: "Lauren Goodrich" &lt;goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;
                 To: "Karen Hooper" &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;
                 Cc: "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;, "Reva Bhalla"
                 &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;, "Peter Zeihan" &lt;zeihan@stratfor.com&gt;,
                 "Matt Gertken" &lt;matt.gertken@stratfor.com&gt;, "nate hughes"
                 &lt;nathan.hughes@stratfor.com&gt;, "Kristen Cooper"
                 &lt;kristen.cooper@stratfor.com&gt;, "Kevin Stech"
                 &lt;kevin.stech@stratfor.com&gt;
                 Sent: Monday, November 17, 2008 12:14:17 PM GMT -05:00
                 Columbia
                 Subject: Re: Stratfor's Kremlin Model

                 hey... you live outside of big bad russia though &amp; you have
                 tons of US backers.

                 Karen Hooper wrote:

                   That's right, i'm an ineffective democratist in an
                   authoritarian state. and you ALL WANT ME DEAD.

                   I see how it is.

                   Marko Papic wrote:

                     AHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA

                     Sweet!

                     ----- Original Message -----
                     From: "Lauren Goodrich" &lt;goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;
                     To: "Kevin Stech" &lt;kevin.stech@stratfor.com&gt;
                     Cc: "Karen Hooper" &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;, "Reva Bhalla"
                     &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;, "Peter Zeihan"
                     &lt;zeihan@stratfor.com&gt;, "Marko Papic"
                     &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;, "Matt Gertken"
                     &lt;matt.gertken@stratfor.com&gt;, "nate hughes"
                     &lt;nathan.hughes@stratfor.com&gt;, "Kristen Cooper"
                     &lt;kristen.cooper@stratfor.com&gt;
                     Sent: Monday, November 17, 2008 12:08:08 PM GMT -05:00
                     Columbia
                     Subject: Re: Stratfor's Kremlin Model

                     Karen is officially Kasparov (Reva recognized it)...
                     they are both freedom-loving, loud-mouth hippies. :)

                     Kevin Stech wrote:

                       Yes, good point.  You haven't made it till you got a
                       kremlin double.

                       Karen Hooper wrote:

                         Pffft. Whatever, at least you HAVE a kremlin double.

                         Kevin Stech wrote:

                           THAT'S COOL I SEE HOW IT IS

                           Lauren Goodrich wrote:

                             I am trying to hedge my recommendation for Kev,
                             y'all.... I feel bad...  you're not helping. 
                             ;-)

                             Reva Bhalla wrote:

                               ahahahahahhahahaaaa
                               i think peter just called kevy bear an ass
                               ----- Original Message -----
                               From: "Peter Zeihan" &lt;zeihan@stratfor.com&gt;
                               To: "Lauren Goodrich" &lt;goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;
                               Cc: "Kevin Stech" &lt;kevin.stech@stratfor.com&gt;,
                               "Marko Papic" &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;,
                               "Matt Gertken" &lt;matt.gertken@stratfor.com&gt;,
                               "Reva Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;,
                               "nate hughes" &lt;nathan.hughes@stratfor.com&gt;,
                               "Karen Hooper" &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;, "Kristen
                               Cooper" &lt;kristen.cooper@stratfor.com&gt;
                               Sent: Thursday, November 13, 2008 7:35:36 AM
                               GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
                               Subject: Re: Stratfor's Kremlin Model

                               deeply
                               truly

                               he's an ass

                               Lauren Goodrich wrote:

                                 NO! Gref is deeply respected. 

                                 Sent from my iPhone
                                 On Nov 12, 2008, at 9:38 PM, Kevin Stech
                                 &lt;kevin.stech@stratfor.com&gt; wrote:

                                   so the analogy runs pretty deep? ;-)

                                   Marko Papic wrote:

                                     AHAHAHHAHA, you forgot to mention that
                                     also everyone hates him!

                                     ----- Original Message -----
                                     From: "Lauren Goodrich"
                                     &lt;goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;
                                     To: "Marko Papic"
                                     &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
                                     Cc: "Matt Gertken"
                                     &lt;matt.gertken@stratfor.com&gt;, "Peter
                                     Zeihan" &lt;zeihan@stratfor.com&gt;, "Reva
                                     Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;,
                                     "nate hughes"
                                     &lt;nathan.hughes@stratfor.com&gt;, "Kevin
                                     Stech" &lt;kevin.stech@stratfor.com&gt;,
                                     "Karen Hooper" &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;,
                                     "Kristen Cooper"
                                     &lt;kristen.cooper@stratfor.com&gt;
                                     Sent: Tuesday, November 11, 2008 3:54:03
                                     PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
                                     Subject: Re: Stratfor's Kremlin Model

                                     NEW ADDITION.....
                                     Kevin as German Gref.... Gref is former
                                     Economic Minister &amp; one of the most
                                     genius minds to serve in Russia...
                                     however, he is highly aggressive in his
                                     manner and treats everyone like they're
                                     dumb.
                                     (sorry kev... luv you.... hey, i called
                                     you a genius)

                                     Marko Papic wrote:

                                       hmmmm... ok, sold.

                                       ----- Original Message -----
                                       From: "Lauren Goodrich"
                                       &lt;goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;
                                       To: "Marko Papic"
                                       &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;
                                       Cc: "Matt Gertken"
                                       &lt;matt.gertken@stratfor.com&gt;, "Peter
                                       Zeihan" &lt;zeihan@stratfor.com&gt;, "Reva
                                       Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;,
                                       "nate hughes"
                                       &lt;nathan.hughes@stratfor.com&gt;, "Kevin
                                       Stech" &lt;kevin.stech@stratfor.com&gt;,
                                       "Karen Hooper" &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;
                                       Sent: Tuesday, November 11, 2008
                                       10:09:14 AM GMT -06:00 US/Canada
                                       Central
                                       Subject: Re: Stratfor's Kremlin Model

                                       you like to wrestle tigers?

                                       Marko Papic wrote:

                                         I'm a dirty Chechen?!

                                         ----- Original Message -----
                                         From: "Matt Gertken"
                                         &lt;matt.gertken@stratfor.com&gt;
                                         To: "Karen Hooper"
                                         &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;
                                         Cc: "Lauren Goodrich"
                                         &lt;goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;, "Peter
                                         Zeihan" &lt;zeihan@stratfor.com&gt;,
                                         "Marko Papic"
                                         &lt;marko.papic@stratfor.com&gt;, "Reva
                                         Bhalla" &lt;reva.bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;,
                                         "nate hughes"
                                         &lt;nathan.hughes@stratfor.com&gt;, "Kevin
                                         Stech" &lt;kevin.stech@stratfor.com&gt;
                                         Sent: Tuesday, November 11, 2008
                                         9:32:23 AM GMT -06:00 US/Canada
                                         Central
                                         Subject: Re: Stratfor's Kremlin
                                         Model

                                         My guess, Karen, is that you are way
                                         too nice and cheerful to be matched
                                         with anyone in the Kremlin.

                                         Karen Hooper wrote:

                                           what about
                                           meeeeeeeeeeeeeee????????

                                           Lauren Goodrich wrote:

                                             **from a Reva-Peter conversation
                                             that snowballed into a new
                                             Stratfor-Kremlin model... please
                                             add to the list
                                             Keep this to the list of emails
                                             above for now pls
                                             New Additions:
                                             Marko is Kadyrov (scary, but
                                             thinks his race should rule)
                                             Matt is Kiriyenko or Naryushkin
                                             (brilliant, but doesn't try to
                                             take others down with it)
                                             Nate is Serdyukov (understands
                                             that military isn't just about
                                             saying you have weapons)
                                             Meredith is Lavrov (diplomatic,
                                             knows everything, can be
                                             aggressive at the best moments)
                                             Fred is Patryushev (intelligence
                                             &amp; connected)
                                             Laura is Rogozin (ambassador to
                                             Europe, but always says what not
                                             suppose to)
                                             Already assigned:
                                             George is Putin (kingmaker and
                                             pushes decisions through no
                                             matter what... both short &amp; with
                                             a complex)
                                             Peter is Medvedev (more
                                             pragmatic decisionmaker... but
                                             still kinda dorky)
                                             Jeff is Kudrin (brains and
                                             money... who knew a checkbook
                                             could be balanced)
                                             Lauren is Surkov (wants to know
                                             everything, can skin a person in
                                             under 3 minuets, but doesn't
                                             want to be top dog)
                                             Stick is Sechin (has his fingers
                                             in the shadier stuff)
                                             Reva is Ivanov (one of the
                                             decision-makers, willing to
                                             stand up to Putin)

                                             Peter Zeihan wrote:

                                               Putin = George model...
                                               PZeihanStratfor (8:26:48 AM):
                                               kudrin is the kremlin's jeff
                                               rbhallastratfor (8:26:56 AM):
                                               ooh
                                               rbhallastratfor (8:26:59 AM):
                                               who do you get to be
                                               rbhallastratfor (8:27:09 AM):
                                               who gets to be surkov
                                               PZeihanStratfor (8:27:19 AM):
                                               lauren of course
                                               rbhallastratfor (8:27:24 AM):
                                               ah of course
                                               PZeihanStratfor (8:27:30 AM):
                                               stick is sechin
                                               PZeihanStratfor (8:27:34 AM):
                                               i'm medvedev
                                               rbhallastratfor (8:27:37 AM):
                                               haha
                                               PZeihanStratfor (8:27:39 AM):
                                               you're ivanov
                                               rbhallastratfor (8:27:41 AM):
                                               that totall works
                                               rbhallastratfor (8:27:43 AM):
                                               sweet!

                                             --
                                             Lauren Goodrich
                                             Director of Analysis
                                             Senior Eurasia Analyst
                                             Stratfor
                                             T: 512.744.4311
                                             F: 512.744.4334
                                             lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
                                             www.stratfor.com

                                           --
                                           Karen Hooper
                                           Latin America Analyst
                                           Stratfor
                                           206.755.6541
                                           www.stratfor.com

                                         --
                                         Marko Papic

                                         Stratfor Junior Analyst
                                         C: + 1-512-905-3091
                                         marko.papic@stratfor.com
                                         AIM: mpapicstratfor

                                       --
                                       Lauren Goodrich
                                       Director of Analysis
                                       Senior Eurasia Analyst
                                       Stratfor
                                       T: 512.744.4311
                                       F: 512.744.4334
                                       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
                                       www.stratfor.com

                                       --
                                       Marko Papic

                                       Stratfor Junior Analyst
                                       C: + 1-512-905-3091
                                       marko.papic@stratfor.com
                                       AIM: mpapicstratfor

                                     --
                                     Lauren Goodrich
                                     Director of Analysis
                                     Senior Eurasia Analyst
                                     Stratfor
                                     T: 512.744.4311
                                     F: 512.744.4334
                                     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
                                     www.stratfor.com

                                     --
                                     Marko Papic

                                     Stratfor Junior Analyst
                                     C: + 1-512-905-3091
                                     marko.papic@stratfor.com
                                     AIM: mpapicstratfor

 --
 Kevin R. Stech
 STRATFOR
 Monitor/Researcher
 P: 512.744.4086
 M: 512.671.0981
 E: kevin.stech@stratfor.com

                             --
                             Lauren Goodrich
                             Director of Analysis
                             Senior Eurasia Analyst
                             Stratfor
                             T: 512.744.4311
                             F: 512.744.4334
                             lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
                             www.stratfor.com

 --
 Kevin R. Stech
 STRATFOR
 Monitor/Researcher
 P: 512.744.4086
 M: 512.671.0981
 E: kevin.stech@stratfor.com

                         --
                         Karen Hooper
                         Latin America Analyst
                         Stratfor
                         206.755.6541
                         www.stratfor.com

 --
 Kevin R. Stech
 STRATFOR
 Monitor/Researcher
 P: 512.744.4086
 M: 512.671.0981
 E: kevin.stech@stratfor.com

                     --
                     Lauren Goodrich
                     Director of Analysis
                     Senior Eurasia Analyst
                     Stratfor
                     T: 512.744.4311
                     F: 512.744.4334
                     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
                     www.stratfor.com

                     --
                     Marko Papic

                     Stratfor Junior Analyst
                     C: + 1-512-905-3091
                     marko.papic@stratfor.com
                     AIM: mpapicstratfor

                   --
                   Karen Hooper
                   Latin America Analyst
                   Stratfor
                   206.755.6541
                   www.stratfor.com

                 --
                 Lauren Goodrich
                 Director of Analysis
                 Senior Eurasia Analyst
                 Stratfor
                 T: 512.744.4311
                 F: 512.744.4334
                 lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
                 www.stratfor.com

                 --
                 Marko Papic

                 Stratfor Junior Analyst
                 C: + 1-512-905-3091
                 marko.papic@stratfor.com
                 AIM: mpapicstratfor

               --
               Lauren Goodrich
               Director of Analysis
               Senior Eurasia Analyst
               Stratfor
               T: 512.744.4311
               F: 512.744.4334
               lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
               www.stratfor.com

             --
             Karen Hooper
             Latin America Analyst
             Stratfor
             206.755.6541
             www.stratfor.com

         --
         Lauren Goodrich
         Director of Analysis
         Senior Eurasia Analyst
         Stratfor
         T: 512.744.4311
         F: 512.744.4334
         lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
         www.stratfor.com

     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     Stratfor
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2008-11-17 18:46:09</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5498748_re-stratfor-s-kremlin-model-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zeihan@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>hooper@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>nathan.hughes@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>matt.gertken@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kristen.cooper@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>kevin.stech@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5499584</id>
    <title>Research Task - Shady Bulgarian. 
</title>
    <description>   Hey missy,

   Will you do me a favor tonight/tomorrow and check into this guy: Veni
   Markovski. He has his own wikipedia page
   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veni_Markovski. Was wondering if he has OC or
   FSB connections.

   I don't need an in depth search, but any flags you find would be helpful.
   It is not a client project, but a security problem for us.

   Thanks!

   Lauren
   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2008-08-11 06:39:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5499584_research-task-shady-bulgarian-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>colibasanu@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>brycerogers@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5501231</id>
    <title>Re: [MESA] FW: [Analytical &amp; Intelligence Comments] RE: Missteps in
 the Syrian Opposition's Propaganda Effort
</title>
    <description>   i trust ME1 on this question. i hate this region, aaaaargh

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Karen Hooper" &lt;hooper@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Middle East AOR" &lt;mesa@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Thursday, December 15, 2011 1:56:47 PM
   Subject: Re: [MESA] FW: [Analytical &amp; Intelligence Comments] RE: Missteps
   in the Syrian Opposition's Propaganda Effort

   I found OS reports of them being Alawite, as well, but it was a truly
   mixed bag. Nothing seems to agree.

   Karen Hooper
   Latin America Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4300 x4103
   C: 512.750.7234
   www.STRATFOR.com
   On 12/15/11 1:45 PM, Nick Grinstead wrote:

     could ME1 be wrong? We've got overwhelming OS vs one source. Not saying
     that ME1 is lying but maybe they're misinformed as well. We should dig
     into this more before we give an answer.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "Omar Lamrani" &lt;omar.lamrani@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;
     Cc: "Middle East AOR" &lt;mesa@stratfor.com&gt;, "CT AOR" &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Thursday, December 15, 2011 8:52:28 PM
     Subject: Re: [MESA] FW: [Analytical &amp; Intelligence Comments] RE:
     Missteps in the Syrian Opposition's Propaganda Effort

     Wow, that is crazy. Overwhelmingly OS is reporting that they are Sunni.
     Some reports even talk about the exact tribal affiliation of Shawkat as
     coming from the Sunni tribe of Bani Khaled.

     On 12/15/11 11:36 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

       well, shit.  most of the OS info on them is wrong. ME1 is saying
       they're Alawites.

       Goddamnit. I'll write to the reader and work with the writers to
       include a correction.  Lesson learned - don't trust OS on verifying
       sectarian affiliation.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: "Omar Lamrani" &lt;omar.lamrani@stratfor.com&gt;
       To: "Middle East AOR" &lt;mesa@stratfor.com&gt;
       Cc: "Reva Bhalla" &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;, "CT AOR" &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
       Sent: Thursday, December 15, 2011 9:50:16 AM
       Subject: Re: [MESA] FW: [Analytical &amp; Intelligence Comments] RE:
       Missteps in the Syrian Opposition's Propaganda Effort

       I concur with Reva, I have read multiple reports in multiple languages
       that indicate these guys are Sunni.

       On 12/15/11 9:32 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

         the background material I've seen and re-read on these two guys is
         that they are Sunni.  I sent a message to ME1 this morning to verify
         once again what their sect is

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: "scott stewart" &lt;stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
         To: "Middle East AOR" &lt;mesa@stratfor.com&gt;, "CT AOR"
         &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
         Sent: Thursday, December 15, 2011 9:21:56 AM
         Subject: [MESA] FW: [Analytical &amp; Intelligence Comments] RE:
         Missteps in the Syrian Opposition's Propaganda Effort

         Is this guy correct?

         On 12/15/11 9:58 AM, "yacoubtaleb@gmail.com" &lt;yacoubtaleb@gmail.com&gt;
         wrote:

         &gt;yacoubtaleb@gmail.com sent a message using the contact form at
         &gt;https://www.stratfor.com/contact.
         &gt;
         &gt;In your analysis you have mentioned that Assef Shawkat and Ali
         Mamalouk
         &gt;are  
         &gt;Sunni Muslim. That is wrong they both are Alawite. Mistakes like
         that put
         &gt;
         &gt;your credibility in question.
         &gt;
         &gt;
         &gt;
         &gt;
         &gt;Source:  
         &gt;http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111213-missteps-syrian-oppositions-prop
         &gt;aganda-effort

 --
 Omar Lamrani
 ADP
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 www.STARTFOR.com

 --
 Omar Lamrani
 ADP
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 www.STARTFOR.com

     --
     Nick Grinstead
     Regional Monitor
     STRATFOR
     Beirut, Lebanon
     +96171969463
</description>
    <date>2011-12-15 21:10:45</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 02:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5501231_re-mesa-fw-analytical-and-intelligence-comments-re-missteps.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mesa@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:mesa@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5501350</id>
    <title>Re: Sorry
</title>
    <description>   No worries.
   I agree that I'm certifiably nuts.
   But Russia made me that way.

   George Friedman wrote:

 The point I was making to peter is how valuable you are in spite of everything. He wasn't denying that as we both believe it. He was challenging my judgment on other things. I was using you as an example of a good choice. I believe that.

 Please forgive the term I used. I think I covered pretty well. And yes you're nuts, but you're very valuable.
 Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
  

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-03-28 19:54:08</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5501350_re-sorry-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5502132</id>
    <title>CONFED REMINDER - Brazil Wish List
</title>
    <description>   I will be sending the guidance list to our confed partner tomorrow. 
   Thanks to those who have responded.  I've included and example list of
   items at the end of this email. Please feel free to add on to it.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   Hi everyone,

   Yesterday I met with a Brazilian confederation partner, a major newspaper
   here.  Yesterday I met with the main POC as well as the head of the paper
   to discuss how we could make our partnership more productive.

   One of the things the paper requested from us was a list of particular
   items we are interested in.  Our POC is willing to put us in contact to
   the various reporters that are experts in our areas of interest.  These
   people will be available for general chats and also specific questions. 
   So, what I need is a list of items that we are interested in.  They need
   to be a nice balance between specific versus general.

   One we turn this in, they will have a better idea of who to put us in
   touch with.  From there we can send specific questions, for example: how
   will the Chevron spill affect oil regulations?

   Yesterday I met people who can help with macroeconomics/policy,
   infrastructure and Brazilian politics. So, those would be good areas to
   have some items of interest.  This list will be helpful for both the
   cooperation and updating our guidance.  I would like to get this list to
   our POC late Monday of next week or Tuesday at the latest.  

   Thanks,
   Allison

   ECONOMY
   - Policy decision regarding growth, inflation
   - Trade disputes with Argentina
   - Relationship with china; energy investments, dumping goods, industry
   competition

   INFRASTRUCTURE
   - Port modernization projects
   - Measure being implemented to make sure World Cup projects are completed
   on time

   DEFENSE
   - Military exercises along the border
   - 13 treaties with border countries to coordinate efforts in anti-drug
   fight
   - Any pressure on military budgets in the face of financial constratints

   BRAZILIAN POLITICS
   - Jan cabinet reshuffle
   - Outcome and consequences of Para state division vote
</description>
    <date>2011-12-05 15:33:37</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5502132_confed-reminder-brazil-wish-list-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>allison.fedirka@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>econ@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>latam@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:econ@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5502302</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - RUSSIA - the bombings - the new consolidated CE
</title>
    <description>   CODE: RU101-102 + more
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Moscow
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  multiple senior investigators inside the Russian
   Prosecutor General's office + liaisons with Interior Ministry  
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts, Fred, briefers
   HANDLER: Lauren
    
   **LG: sources warned me that they would have to be careful on details of
   the current attack because it is still being `investigated'... but they
   heavily implied that the details of the other attacks would satisfy some
   of what we were curious about.
   I bolded a few key things that are the biggest points.
   I spent alot of time writing through this to make it make sense.... but
   was talking &amp; taking notes in Russian, so let me know if any of it is
   unclear

   THE CAUCASUS EMIRATE MILITANT GROUP
    
   There are many that are reporting that there has been a gradual and
   substantial escalation and consolidation in the Caucasus Emirate's (CE)
   capacity, organization and audacity since 2007. CE has different branches
   in Chechnya, Ingushetia, Daghestan, Circassian (Kabard, Cherkess, and
   Adygei) and Alan (Karachai and Balkar).
    
   The CE is now targeting Moscow or St. Petersburg elite, as they have been
   targeting Caucasus elite recently. The Caucasus elite have been hit by
   sniper attacks, dive-bys, and IEDs. They have also used the tactic of
   targeting those outside of the city in order to leave too much time for
   medical or security groups to reach them in time before they die. The CE
   has used the tactics in the Caucasus of setting an explosion and when
   security forces rush to the scene, then they set off another, killing
   ranked officials.
    
   However the CE is not suppose to be carrying out attacks outside of the
   Caucasus. The CE has focused on carrying out terrorist operations across
   the Caucasus against what they consider the local puppet regimes and the
   occupying forces of the Russian infidel.... anything that is their 'near
   enemy'  rather than striking against the `far enemy' in Moscow and other
   Russian regions.
    
   After over a five-year hiatus against attacking civilians, CE amir Doka
   Abu Usman Umarov declared in April that the militants would no longer be
   avoiding civilian casualties. He said that his group would justify
   attacking Russian civilians on the basis of their support for Moscow's
   counter-insurgency efforts and policies towards Islam. He also said that
   he would resume attacks on all Russian territory, not just the Caucasus.
    
   Umarov and CE did announce that they would target more economic targets
   and high priority targets last year. They said that Nevskii was the first
   of these (LG: more on that below). But it also fulfilled hitting Russia
   deep inside the country.
    
   There is belief from many in our circle that CE was starting off its push
   to try to pull off bigger attacks as early as 2007 with the Nevskii
   bombing. The bombs used in the 2007 and 2009 Nevskii attacks are
   incredibly similar in their design and sophistication. Also, they
   detonated nearly the same place and minuet of time of day.
    
   That bombing was claimed by a group called the Riyadus Salikhin (RS) -
   lead by Said Yemin Dadayev, who was the deputy of Shamil Basayev. However,
   the RS is a purely suicide bombing group, which that attack on the Nevskii
   was not. It is interesting that the RS has not claimed either the 2009
   Nevskii or Moscow subway attacks. They have gone silent.... Or they have
   been merged into another group... like CE.
    
   2009 NEVSKII BOMBING
    
   On Dec. 2 the CE claimed responsibility for the Nov bombing of the Nevskii
   Express. With the CE claims on this attack, then Umarov has then returned
   to his promise to attack `far enemies'.  
    
   The Nevskii attack is also highly important to look at because it is the
   first time the CE was successful in killing federal officials with head of
   the Federal Reserves Agency, Boris Yevstratikov and former federal senator
   of St. Petersburg Sergei Tarasov both killed.
    
   The bombs for the Nevskii were also set up to hurt the investigators -
   FSB, Interior Ministry and Prosecutor General Office - oncec they arrived
   on the scene. There was the first explosion that derailed the train which
   was 5.7 kilograms of TNT under the train as it sped at 197 kilometers an
   hour. It was an improvised device of plastic explosive + TNT + ammonium
   nitrate wrapped in plastic and buried under the rail.
    
   But there was a second device planted near a telephone pole that was
   detonated via mobile phone once the investigators arrived. It
   malfunctioned, though a few people did end up with minor injuries-in
   particular was GP Investigator Chief Alexandr Bastrykin.
    
   This is one of the reasons why mobile phone operations were shut down
   immediately after the Moscow subway bombings... because of concern over
   follow-up attacks on investigators and emergency medics.
    
   As far as who carried out the Nevskii attack, it was three men and a woman
   (again with the female involvement).  As you know from the media, there
   was a male of Slavic origin, which leads us into the involvement of
   Kosolapov (LG: more below on him).
    
   THE TANGLED WEB
    
   The 2007 Nevskii attack further looks to be the work of CE because
   militant charged with it - Pavel Kosolapov has ties to Umarov. We have
   reports that Umarov ordered Kosolapov to carry out the attack since he is
   not ethnically from the Caucasus, but is Russian and a former military
   man, being in the rocket forces. He was a convert to Islam and to the
   Chechen cause. He studied with the Chechen militants that specialized in
   transportation attacks. Kosolapov has also been part of other attacks such
   as the 2003 bus attack in Kranodar and the 2004 market attack in Samara
   (plus more).  We believe Kosolapov has been behind the rail bombings in
   the Caucasus, especially the eight in Daghestan.
    
   We believe that Kosolapov was involved in the some part of the recent
   Nevskii and Moscow attacks. This is the suspect that has been referred to
   by authorities that has `red hair and is Russian'. He is not a Russian
   nationalist, but a `damned' convert to Islam and the Chechen cause. He is
   still at large and most recently was seen working on a farm in the
   Caucasus.
    
   Kosolapov has made his own videos recently and we believe that he is part
   of a disinformation campaign for CE now, saying that CE was not behind the
   Nevskii attacks. But then contradicting his videos with follow-ups saying
   that CE was behind it, then claiming the Sayano-Shushenskii dam explosion,
   as well as, the Perm accident on CE. This were the claims which makes many
   believe that CE claims are not credible, but we believe Kosolapov did this
   purposefully.

   There is also ties into CE by Shiekh Said Abu Saad Buryarskii, who also
   works inside of Ingushetia. He is one of the culprits behind the uptick in
   attacks inside of Ingushetia. Buryatskii has been known on occasions as an
   operative in CE and the Interior Ministry has evidence that he (on orders
   for CE) carried out the MVD station bomb attack in August. Buryatskii also
   has ties into RS and its suicide bombings.
    
   What is also an interesting trend is that after the 2007 &amp; 2009 train
   bombings and the Moscow attacks there were large attacks also carried out
   in the Caucasus. We believe CE is behind many of these attacks, though
   there is some evidence that Daghestan's Jamaat Shariat could have helped
   them out.
    
   This has all led us to believe that Buryatskii, RS, Kosolapov and other
   forces (maybe Daghestan's Jamaat Shariat) have all consolidated under
   Umarov and CE. It is the first consolidation we've seen in militant forces
   in nearly a decade. Of course these are the latter tiers of fighters for
   the Caucasus cause, but it is a consolidation nonetheless.
    
   This is the highest level of expertise that we have seen in CE attacks
   ever. Kosolapov, RS, and Buryatskii have been training in this and are the
   only 3 groups/individuals outside  (or inside) of CE that could have done
   this. The possible merging and consolidation of CE, RS, Kosolapov and
   Buryatskii has greatly enhanced the overall capacity, experience and
   tactics of the new force. 

   FOREIGN INVOLEMENT
    
   Yes, the media has latched onto the accusation of foreign involvement by
   the Interior Ministry. There is always connections to foreign militant
   groups. But specifically, we have seen some Caucasus militants returning
   to the region that have trained in Pakistan with Abu Hanifah and with Al
   Qaeda's Lashkar al-Zin commander Ilyas Kashmili. This is all just small
   details and really does not matter in the short or long term. The point is
   that there are forces organized in the country.
    
   INGUSH CONNECTION

   There are connections into Ingushetia-something that has sparked such a
   rapid series of denials by the new Ingush government. Such as the two
   Ingush that were arrested for the 2007 bombings - Salanbek Dzakkhiev and
   Maksharil Khidriev - admitted that the explosive materials used in the
   2007 bombings by Kosolapov are not enough for just that bombing, so
   Kosolapov must have used it for others. Also, they confirmed the
   connection between Kosolapov and Umarov.
    
   On a sidenote, we are working with French authorities on an Ingush
   national arriving in France in late 2009 and planning a terrorist attack
   in the country.
    
   WHAT IS NEXT
    
   We believe that CE's operations are too consolidated to leave to simple
   security clamdowns. It is a large more comprehensive Kremlin project now,
   led by Putin.
    
   We believe the CE will continue to attempt to attack ranked or elite
   persons, infrastructure, symbolic assets, economic assets, etc.
    
   We do think there will be an eventual backlash against CE in the Caucasus
   since they continue to target civilians. This has never boded well for
   militant groups in the Caucasus in the past.

   FUTURE TARGETS
    
   CE did declare recently in a video that it held a jihad against the West
   and that its group would `lengthen its reach' to begin targeting `Western
   and global targets inside and outside of Russia'. With  the appearance of
   a CE member in France, we are fearful that this may become a reality.
    
   Our biggest fear of the next target is two-fold. They have yet to really
   strike a major economic assets thus far, so a pipeline, refinery,
   electricity plant, etc. is on the list of what we're watching for.
    
   Also, the only `Western' targets that we believe they would hit in Russia
   would be a 5 star hotel in Moscow. This would be the worst case scenario.
   Since most of those hotels are near the Kremlin, have foreign officials,
   Russian heavyweights and would be a public nightmare for us. All these
   hotels have incredible security, but that does not mean there are not
   cracks.
    
   OTHER SUSPECTS

   There was never really any serious investigation in either the Nevskii
   bombing or the Moscow subway bombing on any domestic nationalist or
   neo-fascist group. There has only been 1 case in which a group like this
   has ever partially demonstrated a capacity for an attack on individuals
   like these attacks. It is the Combat 18 group that `claimed'
   responsibility for the Nevskii bombing. This group was under serious
   investigation for the Moscow-Grozny train attack in 2005, but was cleared
   of involvement. Combat 18 is believed to have been part of a bomb hoax in
   planting fake explosives on the St. Petersburg metro in Nov of last year.
   This does not lead credibility that this group could actually plan or
   carry out a major attack. Another group that claims to have the capability
   is Peresvyet neo-fascist group, which has declared war on `Russian
   authorities', but only minor individual attacks can be attributed to them.

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-04-06 18:15:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5502302_insight-russia-the-bombings-the-new-consolidated-ce-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>watchofficer@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5502772</id>
    <title>Re: Thanksgiving check in...
</title>
    <description>   This one is sort of strange though--appears it was routed through a server
   in Amsterdam.  Might be normal though--could Russian servers route that
   way?  Message mentions a bar overlooking Red Square. 

   On 12/23/2009 5:29 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     I suspect these are legit.
      
      

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: burton@stratfor.com [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Wednesday, December 23, 2009 5:22 PM
     To: Scott Stewart; Anya Alfano; Korena Zucha
     Subject: Re: Thanksgiving check in...
     This is all Chinese to me.

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: "scott stewart" &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: Wed, 23 Dec 2009 17:11:30 -0500
     To: 'Anya Alfano'&lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;; &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;;
     'Korena Zucha'&lt;zucha@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: FW: Thanksgiving check in...
     Return-Path: goodrich@stratfor.com
     Received: from core.stratfor.com (LHLO core.stratfor.com) (66.219.34.45)
     by
      core.stratfor.com with LMTP; Thu, 26 Nov 2009 09:42:37 -0600 (CST)
     Received: from localhost (localhost.localdomain [127.0.0.1])
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     Message-ID: &lt;4B0EA1E3.2060108@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: Thu, 26 Nov 2009 09:42:27 -0600
     From: Lauren Goodrich &lt;goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;
     User-Agent: Thunderbird 2.0.0.23 (Windows/20090812)
     MIME-Version: 1.0
     To: Chris Farnham &lt;chris.farnham@stratfor.com&gt;,
      scott stewart &lt;scott.stewart@stratfor.com&gt;,
      Fred Burton &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Thanksgiving check in...
     X-Enigmail-Version: 0.96.0
     Content-Type: multipart/alternative;
      boundary="------------030809010305080804030804"

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Thursday, November 26, 2009 10:42 AM
     To: Chris Farnham; scott stewart; Fred Burton
     Subject: Thanksgiving check in...
     Hello Gentlemen,
     I hope you are all fat on Turkey and such (Chirs, you can be glutenous
     whatever China's version is). I am back at the hotel for the night and
     everything went okay today. Great meetings today with tons of info. Now
     I'm just going to relax with my Thanksgiving vokda as I sit in the bar
     that overlooks Red Square-- not very American is it?
     Have a Happy Thanksgiving!
     Lauren
     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     STRATFOR
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-12-24 00:10:05</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5502772_re-thanksgiving-check-in-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5503261</id>
    <title>Re: question
</title>
    <description>I feel like I'm missing something here--I totally understand the idea
that some men don't necessarily think with the brain on top of their
shoulders all the time, but this just seems nuts.  He's letting a girl
call him by some random name, speaking with a British accent, pretending
to be a British lord, and who knows what else--but why? What is he
getting out of it (besides maybe the obvious...)?

On 1/7/2010 1:09 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt; Drew w/a British accent
&gt;   
&gt;&gt; Does R know him as Brian, or Drew?
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; On 1/7/2010 12:36 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt; R advises both L &amp; B are unbelievable poker players.  R thinks they work
&gt;&gt;&gt; as a tandem.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Anya Alfano wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Maybe the guy has roommates to cover the mortgage so he doesn't have any
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; expenses?  Both his cell phone number and his driver's license are
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; registered to the pflugerville home that he owns.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On 1/7/2010 12:04 PM, zucha@stratfor.com wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; As a note, his accurint report showed that he had a roommate both at
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; the pflugerville home and Duvall apt although the guy's name did not
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; match those for owners of the cars in the driveway.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On Jan 7, 2010, at 10:56 AM, Anya Alfano &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; &lt;mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;&gt; wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;           
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Yes, the number that LG provided is 512-507-6544.  The number is
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; registered in the name of Brian Baxter at the address of the home he
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; owns. 
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; On 1/7/2010 11:52 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;         
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;             
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Do you have Baxter's cell #?
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;           
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;               
</description>
    <date>2010-01-07 22:59:55</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5503261_re-question-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5503589</id>
    <title>Re: xzxz
</title>
    <description>First time that we're aware of.  If she's willing to impersonate people
with her friends, why not with sources as well?  Could there be a gf
account out there, singing her praises as a super secret spy to her
contacts, or to BB? 



On 1/19/2010 1:18 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
&gt; But its the first time she has done this to one of us!
&gt;
&gt; Anya Alfano wrote:
&gt;   
&gt;&gt; It's also nothing new for her to create a fake email account--she did it
&gt;&gt; for herself in the Comyn name to further the deception. 
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;     
</description>
    <date>2010-01-19 19:20:35</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5503589_re-xzxz-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5504044</id>
    <title>Re: Russian Defector Comrade J
</title>
    <description>   I adore Comrade J's book.... so fascinating.
   I would like to get Comrade J's take on the GRU then and now.
   The fierce rivalry between the KGB and GRU and how he saw the GRU's
   capability &amp; power outside of Russia.

   Fred Burton wrote:

     He lost his mind while under KGB control.  Now he is trying to recapture
     his mind. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Peter Zeihan [mailto:zeihan@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Tuesday, October 27, 2009 1:39 PM
     To: Fred Burton
     Cc: 'lauren'; 'George Friedman'; korena.zucha@stratfor.com; 'Anya
     Alfano'; 'scott stewart'
     Subject: Re: Russian Defector Comrade J
     why the fuck are you still giving interviews?

     have you lost your mind??

     Fred Burton wrote:

       A very good friend will be meeting w/Comrade J in a few days and has
       offered to ask Comrade J questions on my behalf. 
        
       Does anyone have questions for Comrade J?  He's under WITSEC
       protection to keep the Russians from killing him. 
        
        
       http://www.amazon.com/Comrade-Untold-Secrets-Russias-America/dp/1400155525

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-10-27 19:47:02</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-08 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5504044_re-russian-defector-comrade-j-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zeihan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>anya.alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>korena.zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5505395</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - Pakistan Military attempts to influence US policy - PK700
</title>
    <description>   Source Code: PK700
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Former Pakistani intelligence officer
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

 Pakistan bashing continues. How convenient it is to ignore the huge size of India cocuss and the campaign funding they receive from India through Indian Americans acting as conduits. No one talks about the covert and overt influence israel enjoys through funding American congressmen and the control Israel has on American policies through coercion and fear of Jewish lobby. Since FBI is involved the blessing of US administration is obvious. Unfortunately this PAK bashing is earning hatred for US in a normally pro US country specially it's Armed Forces. This campaign to browbeat or pressurize Pakistan will have an opposite effect in a society where respect is valued and enmities leave memories for generations
</description>
    <date>2011-07-21 00:00:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5505395_insight-pakistan-military-attempts-to-influence-us-policy.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zucha@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>fred.burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>watchofficer@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5505595</id>
    <title>Re: TrapWire (TW)
</title>
    <description> Fred,
I talked with Dan and Alicia over there a few days ago--they gave me a
visual presentation of the website and the sitrep feed.  The sitreps
aren't all focused on security at this point, but I've talked with Kevin
in our IT department and we think we've found a solution.  I'm planning
to feed some security portal content in there with a new specialized
query that we're creating for the latest version of the security portal,
as long as Kevin says that's really possible. 

For the "Resources" content, I'm going to provide them with a few
additional pieces to choose from that are more recent--then our editors
group will reformat so they can host it on their site. 

We're planning to regroup on this either tomorrow or early next week,
depending on their schedule.  Let me know if you have any other thoughts.
Thanks,
Anya


On 9/22/10 7:52 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
&gt; Thank goodness
&gt;
&gt; OMG
&gt;
&gt; I need to see what we are pushing in.
&gt;
&gt; ------Original Message------
&gt; From: Beth Bronder
&gt; To: Fred Burton
&gt; To: Korena Zucha
&gt; To: Anya Alfano
&gt; To: Scott Stewart
&gt; To: Rodger Baker
&gt; Cc: George Friedman
&gt; Cc: Darryl O'Connor
&gt; ReplyTo: Beth Bronder
&gt; Subject: Re: TrapWire (TW)
&gt; Sent: Sep 22, 2010 6:49 PM
&gt;
&gt; Fred -
&gt;
&gt; Anya is already working with someone from Mike's team to fix the content feed (to be security focused) which is something that came up in a meeting I had with Dan Burton from TW last week. We're on it.
&gt;
&gt; Beth
&gt; ------Original Message------
&gt; From: Fred Burton
&gt; To: Beth Bronder
&gt; To: Korena Zucha
&gt; To: Anya Alfano
&gt; To: Scott Stewart
&gt; To: Rodger Baker
&gt; Cc: George Friedman
&gt; Cc: Darryl O'Connor
&gt; ReplyTo: Fred Burton
&gt; Subject: TrapWire (TW)
&gt; Sent: Sep 22, 2010 7:31 PM
&gt;
&gt; Chatted with Mike M, the TW operator and former CIA crony.
&gt;
&gt; He said our feed was taking up 25% of the TW screens inside the client command posts and that the feedback they are getting is that the info being pushed in is more geo-pol centered vice tactical-security.  
&gt;
&gt; How can we fix?  Who is auditing what is going in the pipe?
&gt;
&gt; Thanks
&gt;
&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; Sent from my Verizon Wireless BlackBerry
&gt;
&gt;
&gt; Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T
</description>
    <date>2010-09-23 09:23:56</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5505595_re-trapwire-tw-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5506862</id>
    <title>Fwd: [alpha] INSIGHT - BRAZIL/PARAGUAY - Brasiguayos, background
 on Brazil's view of Prgy
</title>
    <description>   Is this one BR501?

   -------- Original Message --------

    Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - BRAZIL/PARAGUAY - Brasiguayos, background on   
             Brazil's view of Prgy                                            
       Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2011 11:13:44 -0500 (CDT)                            
       From: Clint Richards &lt;clint.richards@stratfor.com&gt;                     
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;                                  
         To: alpha@stratfor.com                                               

   This insight is old (we're talking several months).  However, the issue of
   Brasiguayos is starting to draw a lot of attention in the border area
   (even some asking for Brazilian intervention).  So, I wanted to resend
   this so that there was some background out there about Brazil's general
   views on the situation. [AF]

   Code: new 
   Publication: if useful, mostly background
   Attribution: Brazilian embassy in Paraguay
   Source reliability: untested
   Item credibility: 4
   Special handling: none
   Source handler: Allison
    

   How is Brazil trying to work with the Paraguayan government on the 
   Brasiguaios's issue? Is Brazil making concessions to Paraguay in return
   for their assurance that the Brasiguaios will not have their land taken
   away?
   - side note: he said that the term Brasiguayos was a bit pejorative; that
   said, we need to be careful how we use this term if we one day write a
   piece related to this topic.
   - He pointed out that now a days it is very hard to really define a
   Brasiguayo in that many of them have been born and raised in Paraguay.  He
   said there are communities where up to 80% of the town's population is of
   Brazilian descent.  He also said that many of these border towns are
   culturally Brazilian and much resemble their counterparts on the other
   side of the border.

   - Brazil is basically sponsoring a immigrant normalization program in
   Paraguay.  He criticized the Paraguayan government saying that this had
   been a problem for years and they just never managed to get their act
   together and resolve the status of these people.  A few months ago, Brazil
   hosted a national program in which it normalized the status of immigrant
   who either did not have papers or their papers expired.  Bolivians,
   Peruvian and Paraguayans (in that order) were those that benefited most
   from this initiative.

   - After this program the Brazilian embassy worked with the Paraguayan
   government to launch a pilot round of a program geared towards normalizing
   the immigration status of Brasiguayos as quickly and fast as possible. 
   The plan is based off the rules of Mercosur.  Within the laws, agreements
   of Mercosur there's a measure which calls for the governments to normalize
   the status of Mercosur immigrants in their country. Under this law, the
   individual normalizes his paper, immigrant status and receives a status
   card which is valid two year from the day the individual receives the
   card.  Upon reception of the status card, the individual has 2 years to
   either convert his/her status in to a permanent resident or not if he/she
   so chooses. [there was a recently another round this month of normalizing
   immigrant status in Paraguay - AF]

   - The program basically consists of brining all the administrative
   services to towns with high Brasiguayo populations and carrying out all
   the paperwork there.  They include the necessary local officials,
   representatives from the Brazilian embassy, photographers, medical
   examiners, federal police from both countries to issues criminal records
   quickly and other officials whose paper work is needed for the paperwork
   to go through.  The people basically get in line and pass through each
   station so that by the end they complete all the necessary steps to
   normalize their status.  They receive their status card within a week
   after this takes place. 

   - The price is reasonable though could be slightly challenging for someone
   working as say a farmer with 5 kids, all of which lack proper status.  The
   costs however, are meant to cover just the operations and not make a
   profit.

   - He presented this project where Paraguayan officials do participate in
   carrying out the paper work but Brazil is really the one who took the
   initiative, sponsors it and oversees most of the work. 

   - They considered the pilots runs to be successful and are now looking to
   carry them out as a full fledged program.  The goal is to continue this
   program through 2013 (the end of Lugo's term) and not just have it  be a
   one-time deal.  He also said that if it works, it would serve as a good
   template for how other groups of immigrants can normalize their status.

   - When I asked about land he basically said that the normalizing their
   status would fix lots of problems for these people.  He said that without
   their documents kids had problems attending schools, they couldn't receive
   proper medical care and were unable to do a whole list of activities (such
   as owning land) that required legal status.

   - I also asked about any concerns over backlash in these communities -
   would locals who were of Paraguayan descent ever take action against
   Brasiguayos.  He said that while he recognized there have been reports of
   some incidents of violence, he said that he didn't see it as a big danger
   since the communities are small and many of the people have grown up there
   and we are getting to a point where the communities have grown together.

   How does Brazil view Paraguay in terms of its geopolitical interest? How
   important is Paraguay for Brazil? Why is it important?  Where does
   Brazil see foreign competition in Paraguay?
   - He said that Paraguay and Brazil have a very dense and strong
   relationship.  He said he'd rank Paraguay as the most important neighbor
   immediately bordering Brazil (he's also been here for a total of ten
   years).  In the distant past he said that Paraguay oscillated between
   Argentina and Brazil.  However, he identified the construction of Itaipu
   as the most recent, big event solidifying the countries together.  He said
   that oscillation is no longer taking place

   - He said that Brazil feels very comfortable with its relationship with
   Paraguay.  When asked about others competing with Brazil for geopolitical
   spaces in Paraguay he said he/Brazil did not see that as an issue.

   - Throughout the entire conversation he would mention how Paraguay just
   doesn't have the money or institutions to get things done but its
   partnership with Brazil helps counter that to a small degree.  He
   definitely talked like Brazil was the big brother taking care of Paraguay.

   - With security he said it's a delicate issues and that both sides are
   trying to work together to make border crossings a safer place.  He
   equated Brazil's border with Paraguay to the US border with Mexico - very
   long and problematic in terms of violence.
</description>
    <date>2011-08-22 19:35:08</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-13 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5506862_fwd-alpha-insight-brazil-paraguay-brasiguayos-background-on.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>allison.fedirka@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5507057</id>
    <title>Order Confirmation for HMRShippingUK.net
</title>
    <description>
                             Order Confirmation for
                               HMRShippingUK.net

   Hello Lauren,

   Thank you for choosing Anything Email for your Domain, Email, and Website
   needs. This email is to confirm the purchase of the Domain Name
   HMRShippingUK.net and master email address L.A.Anderson@HMRShippingUK.net.
   The charge 49.95 will appear on your credit card statement from Anything
   Email, Inc. Please print this email for your records. It contains
   important account information. Your email address and domain name will not
   affect or change your old email address.

   What's next?

   Once your domain and new email address are active, we will send you an
   Activation Notice (within 24 hours) to the same address as this notice. 
   Please wait for the Activation Notice before attempting to use your new
   domain.

   How long before this service is active?

   Domain name registrations can take up to 24 hours to become fully
   accessible on the Internet. Once the domain is active, all your services
   with Anything a Email will also be active.

   What becomes active?

     * Domain Name: HMRShippingUK.net
     * Master Email Address: L.A.Anderson@HMRShippingUK.net
     * Command Center (additional email addresses can be set up or changed
       through the Command Center)
     * Webmail System
     * FTP Access with 10MB of web space

   What is included with this purchase?

     * Domain Name: HMRShippingUK.net
     * 5 POP3 Email Accounts at your domain (your master email address plus 4
       more)
     * 500MB of email storage (distributable through the Command Center)
     * FTP Access with 10MB of web space
     * Web Site Redirect (automatically redirect your new web address to a
       pre-existing web address)

   For your records:

   Domain: HMRShippingUK.net

   Purchase Amount: 49.95

   Card Holder: Lauren Goodrich

   Master Email Address: L.A.Anderson@HMRShippingUK.net

   Password: Meredith19

   POP3 (Incoming) Server: mail.HMRShippingUK.net

   SMTP (Outgoing) Server: mail.HMRShippingUK.net

   Command Center: http://mail.HMRShippingUK.net/admin

   Webmail: http://mail.HMRShippingUK.net/

   FTP Location: ftp.HMRShippingUK.net

   FTP username: HMRShippingUK.net

   FTP password: Meredith19

   Look for answers to frequently asked questions located at
   http://www.anythingemail.com/support/faqs/.  You may e-mail us at
   support@anythingemail.com if you have any questions not found in our FAQ.

   We sincerely thank you for your business!

   Anything Email, Inc.
   2455 E. Sunrise Blvd, Suite 1201
   Fort Lauderdale, FL 33304
   http://www.AnythingEmail.com

   Customer Support hours:
   Monday-Friday, 9:00am-5:00pm EST
   Saturday-Sunday, CLOSED

   Telephone: (800) 420-6928 Toll Free
   Email: Support@AnythingEmail.com
</description>
    <date>2010-01-27 06:48:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5507057_order-confirmation-for-hmrshippinguk-net-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>Lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>support@anythingemail.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5507507</id>
    <title>Re: URS - New GV Business [REVENUE]
</title>
    <description>   Thanks, Don.  Much appreciated.
   Anya

   On 8/31/11 4:50 PM, Don Kuykendall wrote:

     Talked to Debora.  Fine and dandy.
     -Don
     Don R. Kuykendall 
     President &amp; Chief Financial Officer 
     STRATFOR 
     512.744.4314 phone 
     512.744.4334 fax 
     kuykendall@stratfor.com 
       
     _______________________ 
       
     http://www.stratfor.com 
     STRATFOR 
     221 W. 6th Street 
     Suite 400 
     Austin, Texas 78701 
     From: Anya Alfano &lt;anya.alfano@stratfor.com&gt;
     Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2011 15:35:57 -0400
     To: Debora Wright &lt;wright@stratfor.com&gt;
     Cc: Don Kuykendall &lt;don.kuykendall@stratfor.com&gt;
     Subject: Re: URS - New GV Business [REVENUE]
     Hi Don,
     Per Debora's earlier message, I've copied our draft scope of work for
     the URS work below.  Essentially, the client is interested in having two
     areas of interest covered at all times and then the ability to have a
     third topic of interest that will change through the contract period. 
     We'll need to task the monitors to do some additional work to do
     watching their first topic of interest, but we already cover the second
     topic very well.  The topic that they mentioned as an example of a
     rotating topic of interest was the security situation in Mexico, which
     we also cover well.  

     Please let me know your thoughts on the draft below--I'm also available
     to speak on the phone if you think it would be helpful.
     Thanks,
     Anya

     SCOPE OF WORK  - Global Vantage Services for URS

     STRATFOR will provide URS with continual monitoring of two topics of
     continual concern and one additional topic of concern that will change
     periodically during the term of service. The goal of these monitoring
     services is to provide better understanding of the security environment
     in the areas of interest that could impact URS personnel, facilities,
     operations and interests.

      

                             I.     Standing Issue of Interest - STRATFOR
     will monitor militant threats to URS and other similarly situated
     corporations to determine any change to the level of threat to these
     entities. STRATFOR will alert the client to any emerging threats and
     help the client to determine whether these developments signify a threat
     to their interests.

                            II.     Standing Issue of Interest - STRATFOR
     will monitor security developments--including those stemming from war,
     insurgency and terrorism-- in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan to
     determine if there are changes to the company's baseline threat
     assessment and operational environment in these areas.

                          III.     Rotating Area of Interest - URS will
     determine one rotating area of interest with the ability to change this
     topic once every two months. These areas of interest would primarily
     focus on the security issues present in a single country, with a special
     focus on how security issues impact the business environment. A STRATFOR
     Briefer will work with the client to ensure that the chosen topic of
     interest does not require an extraordinary level of resource usage from
     STRATFOR's intelligence team.

      

     DELIVERABLES

      

     .       Three URS representatives will receive access to a STRATFOR
     Intelligence Briefer who collaborates with the STRATFOR analyst team and
     tracks open source and proprietary global intelligence as it pertains to
     the Scope of Work outlined above:

     -       The Briefer will provide alerts and updates on significant
     developments related to the Scope of Work via email or phone call

     -       The Briefer will also be available for consultation via email or
     phone on strategic questions related to the Scope of Work and can
     provide updates and recommendations during crisis and red alert
     situations.  The Briefer will alert URS if any request requires an
     extraordinary level of monitoring, intelligence resources or research
     and is therefore not included within the scope of this contract

      

     .       Three URS users will receive access to STRATFOR's Enterprise
     database of daily content/archives of global briefings, analysis,
     forecasts, videos and special reports

     On 8/31/11 2:48 PM, Debora Wright wrote:

       Hi Don -

       Anya and I just got off the phone with URS and we are finalizing the
       scope of work/deliverables for this new GV business.  Anya will send
       the scope of work shortly for your review and approval. 

       As a quick reminder, here are the details about this business:

       URS has a budget of $28K, so we have been clear with URS that STRATFOR
       will have to limit the service to meet their budget.  It is basically
       a proof of concept year - so in 6 months, Anya and I will visit with
       them again to consider the success of GV within their organization,
       discuss other topics they may want us to monitor,  and provide pricing
       options for 2012 so they will have ample time to budget for a larger
       purchase of GV Services.
       If you are good with what Anya sends, please let me know so that I may
       forward to the customer, get his approval and close the business.

       Thanks,
       Debora
</description>
    <date>2011-08-31 23:00:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5507507_re-urs-new-gv-business-revenue-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>kuykendall@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>wright@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5509401</id>
    <title>Re: Insight--for internal use only--On pain of agony
</title>
    <description>   No wonder Medvedev has 2 trips planned to Turkey this spring..... Russia
   will try to take advantage.

   Reva Bhalla wrote:

     yes... turkey isn't only using Iran as the cause for the break. look at
     turkey's public outrage over the Israeli offensive in Gaza as an
     example. Turkey is already pretty tight with Russia, but this doesn't
     mean Turkey has to necessarily get closer to Russia. Turkey will play
     nice with the Russians but also wants to show it can play on its own
     On Feb 20, 2010, at 11:14 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

       I meant to say, if not for Iran, would he look for other
       places/weaknesses in the US/Israel relationship to cause a break? 
       And, if he did break with these two, would it mean necessarily that he
       would move closer to Russia?

       Reva Bhalla wrote:

         US and Israel are the ones that matter. it's about redefining
         Turkey's role as an independent power
         On Feb 20, 2010, at 11:04 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

           Erdogan is looking to break with the US and Israel?  Are there
           other possible places he could do this, if he is actively trying?

           George Friedman wrote:

             Turkey would break with israel and the united states. It would
             be an opportunity erdogan is looking for. 

             Iran would become more visible but not more powerful. A year
             after the attack its underlying weakness would still be there
             and its dependence on turkey greater. 

             In my view the ourtcome of this is turkish power. But remeber,
             my insight is not that israel will attack. Its that kissinger
             thinks they will attack. Huge difference. 

             $

             Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: "Kamran Bokhari" &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
             Date: Sat, 20 Feb 2010 15:55:16 +0000
             To: Secure List&lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;
             Subject: Re: Insight--for internal use only--On pain of agony
             All my sources - regardless of factional affiliation - are
             convinced that Iran is preparing for war and one that will make
             the regime more stronger. Did you see Bob Baer make the same
             argument in TIME? Any attack on Iran will make it very difficult
             for Turkey. It will be forced to take a stand against the war
             and there could be trouble with the United States. Such a
             conflict will be a test of Turkey's resurgence and moves towards
             a more independent foreign policy. 

             ---

             Sent from my BlackBerry device on the Rogers Wireless Network 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: "George Friedman" &lt;friedman@att.blackberry.net&gt;
             Date: Sat, 20 Feb 2010 15:47:49 +0000
             To: Kamran Bokhari&lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;; George
             Friedman&lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;; Secure
             List&lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;
             Subject: Re: Insight--for internal use only--On pain of agony
             I believe th us will premempt. But there is no clear time line.

             Sent via BlackBerry by AT&amp;T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: "Kamran Bokhari" &lt;bokhari@stratfor.com&gt;
             Date: Sat, 20 Feb 2010 15:43:38 +0000
             To: George Friedman&lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;; Secure
             List&lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;
             Subject: Re: Insight--for internal use only--On pain of agony
             Understood. What is your own assessment of the view that the
             Israelis will attack?

             ---

             Sent from my BlackBerry device on the Rogers Wireless Network 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: George Friedman &lt;gfriedman@stratfor.com&gt;
             Date: Sat, 20 Feb 2010 09:41:03 -0600
             To: Secure List&lt;secure@stratfor.com&gt;
             Subject: Insight--for internal use only--On pain of agony
             Internal use only

             Some nuggets from meeting:

             Kissinger believes that the Israelis are in a panic and will
             attack Iran.  Erdogan has made it clear to him that he plans to
             break with Israel at some point and reorient toward the Islamic
             world. He intends to be their leader.  Paul Volcker regards the
             Greek crisis as potentially a mortal blow for the EU. He would
             like to see an IMF tranche.  He also said that Nicholas Brady is
             behind both this and the Volcker principles Obama adopted.  When
             I asked Brady how he expects to get the the U.S. to go along
             with an IMF bailout, he shrugged and said they won't, but that's
             the only choice.  Volcker is now doubtful the Euro can survive. 
             Brady is convinced it will.  Kissinger thinks Volcker and Brady
             are missing the real crisis which is in Iran and potentially
             Russia. Volcker also says that the Bank of England and the
             French will go along with the Volcker rules on an international
             basis--that is returning to a variety of Glass-Steagal.  The
             Japanese will do whatever is said, and in Germany only Deutsche
             Bank really makes decisions. Sarkozy told him he would come in. 
             So there may be an international convention on restructuring
             banks under way--Volcker is pretty careful in what he says and
             doesn't promote himself more than the average bear, so this may
             be the case.  Nick Brady thinks so too.

             Total confusion on situation in China, but more on Obama.  They
             don't understand who is running China policy. The decision to
             meet with the Dalia Lama strikes them as particularly bizarre. 
             But China is the least of the discussion.  It is about Greece
             and Iran.  China is kind of an afterthought.

             I asked Tim Reed who ran Resolution Trust Corporation during the
             S&amp;L crisis under Nick Brady whether a new RTC would have been
             better as a supplement to TARP and he agreed but said that
             Paulsen was so panicked he wasn't thinking and Bernaecke and he
             were just responding.  

             One sense I'm getting here is that the American elite, along
             with Europe's, China's and just about everyone but Russia's his
             suffering from three problems:  First, none are really aware of
             the political pressures on other elites.  Second, they
             completely misunderstand the alienation of the publics, three,
             except for Volcker, they think this can be handled by the elites
             among themselves.  We have a crisis of the elites, in my view.  

             I get to hold forth in an hour or so, and I'm going to argue
             that Iran is going out of control because of the elite crisis. 
             No decision making is going on and the decisions that are being
             made won't be supported in the public. The only country that is
             acting decisively and can do so is Russia.

             This is for our own internal use.  This must not be published or
             discussed outside Stratfor.
             -- 
             George Friedman
             Founder and CEO
             Stratfor
             700 Lavaca Street
             Suite 900
             Austin, Texas 78701
             Phone  512-744-4319
             Fax  512-744-4334

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director, Stratfor
 US Mobile: (512) 422-9335
 China Mobile: (86) 15801890731
 Email: richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com



    

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director, Stratfor
 US Mobile: (512) 422-9335
 China Mobile: (86) 15801890731
 Email: richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com



    

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-02-20 20:37:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5509401_re-insight-for-internal-use-only-on-pain-of-agony-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>richmond@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>friedman@att.blackberry.net</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5509536</id>
    <title>Re: FW: email of Fred Burton
</title>
    <description>   Markovski is a huge internet mogul in Bulgaria. He is kinda a strange guy,
   but very powerful in business circles. I've shipped his name to my ppl to
   see if he is hooked into FSB or OC. But he is one of the biggest founders
   of Internet in Bulgaria and the region. I know he has ties into Russia and
   the rest of the CIS.

   To be honest, I can't imagine him having a "gmail" account with his own
   name on it. That seems really suspect to me since he is such a powerful
   and rich dude.

   Fred Burton wrote:

      Any idea who these folks are?  Thx  

     -----Original Message-----
     From: veni Markovski [mailto:venimarkovski@gmail.com] On Behalf Of Veni
     Markovski
     Sent: Sunday, August 10, 2008 4:46 PM
     To: service@stratfor.com
     Subject: email of Fred Burton

     Hi.

     I am looking for the e-mail of Mr. Burton. Would be glad, if you can
     send it.

     Thank you.

     Sincerely,

     Veni Markovski

     Senior Advisor for International Projects
     &lt;http://www.daits.government.bg/&gt;State Agency for IT and Communications
     &lt;http://www.government.bg/&gt;Council of Ministers | REPUBLIC OF BULGARIA
     ----------------
     email: &lt;mailto:veni@veni.com&gt;veni@veni.com | email2:
     &lt;mailto:veni@daits.government.bg&gt;veni@daits.government.bg
     office: +1-646-873-7708 | office2: +359-2-401-8008 | fax:
     +1-212-319-5955 Bulgarian Consulate General, 121 E 62nd Str., New York,
     NY 10021, USA

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2008-08-11 06:38:33</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5509536_re-fw-email-of-fred-burton-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5509661</id>
    <title>Fwd: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA/AZ/US/VZ/RUSSIA/TAIWAN - Erdogan's
 cancer, Turkish plan for Syria and more - TR325
</title>
    <description>   -------- Original Message --------

    Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA/AZ/US/VZ/RUSSIA/TAIWAN -          
             Erdogan's cancer, Turkish plan for Syria and more - TR325        
       Date: Sat, 10 Dec 2011 13:04:53 -0600 (CST)                            
       From: Reva Bhalla &lt;bhalla@stratfor.com&gt;                                
   Reply-To: Alpha List &lt;alpha@stratfor.com&gt;                                  
         To: alpha@stratfor.com                                               

   SOURCE: TR325 and his business partner
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Former NSC official in Turkey, adviser to Erdogan,
   energy expert negotiator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

   TR325's business partner has an old classmate friend who was the lead
   surgeon on Erdogan's most recent operation. He said that Erdogan has colon
   cancer, but they haven't seen the second biopsy results yet to see if it's
   metastasized. In the last operation, they cut out 20 cm of Erdogan's colon
   (I just looked up that the average colon is about 1.5m long.)  That's a
   really significant operation. Erdogan is not going to be able to travel
   for a while, and he's going to have to carry around with him a colonoscopy
   bag for at least 2-3 months.  The prognosis is not looking good, though.
   The surgeon said they were estimating 2 years for him.

   This is very likely going to cause major splits within the AKP.  Gul
   doesn't have much support.  Davutoglu is paranoid that everyone else is
   trying to undermine him (there's a definite competition between him and
   TR325.)  When I asked who Erdgogan trusts, two names were mentioned - Ali
   Babacan (Deputy PM) and Taner Yildiz (energy minister.)  Both sources were
   asking how the US is likely to react to this situation.  Would they try to
   back the military like the old days?  CHP is still very much divided. Both
   seemed to think the military won't be able to take advantage of the
   situation.

   On Syria - the conversation centered on how far Turkey is actually going
   to go.  TR325 explained that the Turkish plan is centered on civil war in
   Syria.  Officially, it's Turkey providing the main training,a rms and
   support to FSA. Unofficially, US and TUrkey are doing this together in
   deploying SOF for this mission.  Notice all the talk in the press now
   about civil war breaking out in Syria. This is the narrative Turkey and US
   want to build.  I pointed out that creating the conditions for civil war -
   actual neighborhood to neighborhood fighting - is still pretty difficult
   considering that the Alawite forces are still holding together, but he
   seemed to think that this can escalate within 2 months time. He also said
   without saying that they're working on making that happen. He acknowledges
   it'll be messy and it will take a lot of blood and time for a Sunni power
   to emerge in syria, but that this is the Turkish obligation.

   The Turkish plan to preempt the instability that would result from civil
   war conditions is to implement the buffer zone 5-40km into Syrian
   territory and set up refugee camps.  I asked what levers Iran and Syria
   have to get Turkey to back off in relation to PKK.  He said
   (half-jokingly) that Karilan is Turkey's man (ie. turkey can actually
   negotiate with him.)  But he said PKK third-in-command (still need to get
   this guy's name) answers to Syria and Iran. Turkey knows this very well
   and he says Syria and Iran are already making moves to threaten attacks
   via this faction.

   I'm left with a lot of questions --

   Given the instability that is likely to result within AKP over Erdogan's
   health, would Turkey really be making bold foreign policy moves, such as
   helping to create a civil war in Syria?

   Turkey appears very confident that Syria/Iran have the means to play the
   PKK card. Why risk that?

   Turkey knows they'll be dealing with a massive refugee crisis in Syria -
   why propel that situation?

   Some other points -

   TR325 believes AZ wiill be able to export 5-7bcm via ITGI for SDII. 
   Russia has its stake in Edison to keep a foothold in that route.  The rest
   he agrees is likely going to have to be shipped to Russia eventually since
   the Europeans aren't financing anything right now. He did say that SOCAR
   is flush with money right now and could actually put money down on these
   projects if they have the market demand and client base to do it.

   They were both asking me what is happening with Trinidad and Tobago. I
   told them I have no idea. They were asking because they are involved in a
   business deal to sell conventional subs to Trinidad and Tobago. They're
   assuming the US is preparing something for VZ.  They are also involved in
   similar submarine sales to Taiwan and Japan.
</description>
    <date>2011-12-13 00:17:06</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-06 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5509661_fwd-alpha-insight-turkey-syria-az-us-vz-russia-taiwan.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5511573</id>
    <title>Re: [Military] [Fwd: Wikileaks]
</title>
    <description>Yes, same with the FBI. They classify their laundry lists and lunch menus as
Secret. 



-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
Sent: Monday, July 26, 2010 12:32 PM
To: Matthew Powers
Cc: Military AOR; scott stewart; 'Tactical'
Subject: Re: [Military] [Fwd: Wikileaks]

Thousands of contractors would have had access to these classifications.

The ONLY classification the CIA uses is SECRET.


Matthew Powers wrote:
&gt; Here are the classifications in the wikileaks docs, the vast majority is
&gt; SECRET:
&gt; 
&gt; CONFIDENTIAL
&gt; NATO CONFIDENTIAL
&gt; NATO CONFIDENTIAL Releasable to GCTF
&gt; NATO/ISAF CONFIDENTIAL REL GCTF, GIRoA
&gt; NATO/ISAF RESTRICTED REL GCTF, GIRoA
&gt; NATO/ISAF SECRET
&gt; NATO/ISAF SECRET REL GIRoA
&gt; SECRET
&gt; UNCLASSIFIED
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; 
&gt; Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt; I understand no TS or SCI was compromised.  SitRep reports mainly.
&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt; scott stewart wrote:
&gt;&gt;   
&gt;&gt;&gt; Has anyone seen any indication that the Wikileaks material has anything
&gt;&gt;&gt; above secret?  Any TS or SCI material?
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; -----Original Message-----
&gt;&gt;&gt; From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
&gt;&gt;&gt; Sent: Monday, July 26, 2010 12:03 PM
&gt;&gt;&gt; To: Tactical; 'Military AOR'
&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: Re: [Fwd: Wikileaks]
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; The internal report was marked not only "secret" but also "Noforn", ie
&gt;&gt;&gt; not to be shared with the foreign elements of the coalition. And the
&gt;&gt;&gt; source of this anxiety is explicit: "The knowledge that TF 373 conducted
&gt;&gt;&gt; a HIMARS strike must be protected." And it was. This crucial fact
&gt;&gt;&gt; remained secret, as did TF 373's involvement.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Again, the lethal attack caused political problems. The provincial
&gt;&gt;&gt; governor arranged compensation and held a shura with local leaders when,
&gt;&gt;&gt; according to an internal US report, "he pressed the Talking Points given
&gt;&gt;&gt; to him and added a few of his own that followed in line with our current
&gt;&gt;&gt; story". Libi remained targeted for death and was killed in Pakistan
&gt;&gt;&gt; seven months later by a missile from an unmanned CIA Predator.
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt; Fred Burton wrote:
&gt;&gt;&gt;     
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; -------- Original Message --------
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Subject: 	Wikileaks
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Date: 	Mon, 26 Jul 2010 11:06:46 -0400
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; From: 	Mike Parks &lt;longbow99@earthlink.net&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; To: 	'Fred Burton' &lt;burton@stratfor.com&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; Bunch of DSS surveillance reports (Ambo's detail) in the wikileaks
cache.
&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;       
&gt; 
&gt; -- 
&gt; Matthew Powers
&gt; STRATFOR Research ADP
&gt; Matthew.Powers@stratfor.com
&gt; 
</description>
    <date>2010-07-26 18:40:21</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-28 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5511573_re-military-fwd-wikileaks-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>military@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>matthew.powers@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>tactical@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:military@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5512760</id>
    <title>[CT] Mexico hippy bombers
</title>
    <description>   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090930_mexico_emergence_unexpected_threat

                   Mexico: Emergence of an Unexpected Threat

     * View
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   September 30, 2009 | 1745 GMT

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   Algeria: Taking the Pulse of AQIM

   By Scott Stewart

   At approximately 2 a.m. on Sept. 25, a small improvised explosive device
   (IED) consisting of three or four butane canisters was used to attack a
   Banamex bank branch in the Milpa Alta delegation of Mexico City. The
   device damaged an ATM and shattered the bank's front windows. It was not
   an isolated event. The bombing was the seventh recorded IED attack in the
   Federal District - and the fifth such attack against a local bank branch -
   since the beginning of September.

   The attack was claimed in a communique posted to a Spanish-language
   anarchist Web site by a group calling itself the Subversive Alliance for
   the Liberation of the Earth, Animals and Humans (ASLTAH). The note said,
   "Once again we have proven who our enemies are," indicating that the
   organization's "cells for the dissolution of civilization" were behind the
   other, similar attacks. The communique noted that the organization had
   attacked Banamex because it was a "business that promotes torture,
   destruction and slavery" and vowed that ASLTAH would not stop attacking
   "until we see your ashes." The group closed its communique by sending
   greetings to the Earth Liberation Front (ELF), the Animal Liberation Front
   (ALF) and the "eco-pyromaniacs for the liberation of the earth in this
   place." Communiques have also claimed some of the other recent IED attacks
   in the name of ASLTAH.

   On Sept. 22, authorities also discovered and disabled a small IED left
   outside of a MetLife insurance office in Guadalajara, Jalisco state. A
   message spray-painted on a wall near where the device was found read,
   "Novartis stop torturing animals," a reference to the multinational
   pharmaceutical company, which has an office near where the IED was found
   and which has been heavily targeted by the group Stop Huntingdon Animal
   Cruelty (SHAC). Novartis is a large customer of Huntingdon Life Sciences,
   the research company SHAC was formed to destroy because Huntingdon uses
   animals in its testing for harmful side effects of drugs, chemicals and
   consumer items. A second message spray-painted on a wall near where the
   device was found on Sept. 22 read, "Novartis break with HLS." Two other
   IEDs were detonated at banks in Mexico City on the same day.

   These IED attacks are the most recent incidents in a wave of anarchist,
   animal rights, and eco-protest attacks that have swept across Mexico this
   year. Activists have conducted literally hundreds of incidents of
   vandalism, arson and, in more recent months, IED attacks in various
   locations across the country. The most active cells are in Mexico City and
   Guadalajara.

   For a country in the midst of a bloody cartel war in which thousands of
   people are killed every year - and where serious crimes
   like kidnapping terrorize nearly every segment of society - direct-action
   attacks by militant activists are hardly the biggest threat faced by the
   Mexican government. However, the escalation of direct-action attacks in
   Mexico that has resulted in the more frequent use of IEDs shows no sign of
   abating, and these attacks are likely to grow more frequent, spectacular
   and deadly.

  The Wave

   Precisely quantifying the wave of direct-action attacks in Mexico is
   difficult for a number of reasons. One is that the reporting of such
   incidents is spotty and the police, the press and the activists themselves
   are often not consistent in what they report and how. Moreover, is often
   hard to separate direct-action vandalism from incidents of plain old
   non-political vandalism or tell the difference between an anarchist IED
   attack against a bank and an IED attack against a bank conducted by
   a Marxist group such as the Popular Revolutionary Army (EPR). Then there
   is the issue of counting. Should a series of five Molotov cocktail attacks
   against ATMs or the destruction of 20 Telmex phone booths in one night be
   counted as one attack or as separate incidents?

   If we count conservatively - e.g., consider a series of like incidents as
   one - we can say there have been around 200 direct-action attacks to date
   in 2009. But if we count each incident separately, we can easily claim
   there have been more than 400 such attacks. For example, by our count,
   there have been more than 350 Telmex phone booths smashed, burned or
   otherwise vandalized so far this year. (Activists will do things like glue
   metal shavings into the calling-card and coin slots.) However, for the
   sake of this analysis we'll go with the conservative number of about 200
   attacks.

   Now, Telmex seems to be the most popular target so far for direct-action
   attacks. In addition to hitting phone booths, activists also have attacked
   Telmex vehicles and offices and have cut Telmex cables. From their
   statements, the activists appear to hold a special hatred for Carlos Slim,
   one of the richest men in the world and the chairman of Telmex and several
   other companies. In many ways, Slim - a patriarchal billionaire
   industrialist - is the personification of almost everything that the
   anarchistic activists hate. In addition to Telmex and banks, the activists
   also have attacked other targets such as restaurants (including McDonald's
   and KFC), meat shops, pet shops, fur and leather stores, luxury vehicles,
   and construction equipment.

   The activists' most common tactics tend to be on the lower end of the
   violence scale and include graffiti and paint (frequently red to symbolize
   the blood of animals) to vandalize a target. They also frequently release
   captive birds or animals as well as use superglue and pieces of metal to
   obstruct locks, pay phones and ATM card readers. Moving up the violence
   continuum, activists less frequently will break windows, burn buildings
   and vehicles, and make bomb threats - there have been at least 157
   incidents involving arson or incendiary devices so far in 2009. To help
   put this into perspective, these activists have conducted more arson
   attacks in Mexico to date in 2009 than their American counterparts have
   conducted in the United States since 2001.

   At the high end of the violence spectrum are the IED attacks, and this is
   where there has really been an increase in activity in recent weeks. In
   the first six months of 2009, there were several bomb threats and hoaxes
   and a few acid bombs, but only two real IEDs were used. In June, July and
   August there was one IED attack per month - and so far in September there
   have been seven IED attacks in Mexico City alone and one successful attack
   and one attempted attack in Guadalajara. Again, by way of comparison,
   these eight IED attacks by Mexican activists in September are more than
   American activists have conducted in the United States since 2001.

  Proliferation of IEDs

   There are several factors that can explain this trend toward the
   activists' increasing use of IEDs. The first is, quite simply, that IEDs
   generate more attention than graffiti, glue or even an arson attack -
   indeed, here we are devoting a weekly security report to activist IED
   attacks in Mexico. In light of the overall level of violence in Mexico,
   most observers have ignored the past lower-level activity by these
   activist groups, and IEDs help cut through the noise and bring attention
   to the activists' causes. The scope and frequency of IED attacks this
   month ensured that they could not be overlooked.

   The second factor is the learning curve of the cells' bombmakers. As a
   bombmaker becomes more proficient in his tradecraft, the devices he crafts
   tend to become both more reliable and more powerful. The improvement in
   tradecraft also means that the bombmaker is able to increase his
   operational tempo and deploy devices more frequently. It is quite possible
   that the few IEDs that were reported as hoaxes in March, April and May
   could have been IEDs that did not function properly - a common occurrence
   for new bombmakers who do not extensively test their devices.

   The third factor is thrill and ego. In many past cases, militant activists
   have launched progressively larger attacks. One reason for this is that
   after a series of direct-action attacks, the activists get bored doing
   lower-level things like gluing locks or paint-stripping cars and they move
   to more destructive and spectacular attacks, such as those using timed
   incendiary devices. For many activists, there is a thrill associated with
   getting increased attention for the cause, in causing more damage to their
   targets and in getting away with increasingly brazen attacks.

   Finally, in recent years, we have noted a shift among activist groups away
   from a strict concern for human life. Many activists are becoming
   convinced that less violent tactics have been ineffective, and if they
   really want to save the Earth and animals, they need to take more
   aggressive action. There is a small but growing fringe of hard-core
   activists who believe that, to paraphrase Lenin, you have to break eggs to
   make an omelet.

   The Ruckus Society, a direct-action activist training organization,
   explains it this way in a training document: "There is a law against
   breaking into a house. However, if you break into a house as part of a
   greater good, such as rushing into the house to save a child from a fire,
   it is permissible to break that law. In fact, you can say that there is
   even a moral obligation to break that law. In the same way then, it is
   permissible to break minor laws to save the Earth." In general, activists
   do not condone violent action directed at humans, but neither do they
   always condemn it in very strong terms - they often explain that the anger
   that prompts such violence is "understandable" in light of what they
   perceive as ecological injustice and cruelty to animals.

   In recent years there has been a polarization in the animal rights and
   environmental movements, with fringe activists becoming increasingly
   isolated and violent - and more likely to use potentially deadly tools
   like IEDs in their attacks.

  Confluences

   The very name of ASLTAH - the Subversive Alliance for the Liberation of
   the Earth, Animals and Humans - illustrates the interesting confluence of
   animal rights, ecological activism and anti-imperialism/anarchism that
   inhabit the radical fringe. It is not uncommon for one cell of independent
   activists to claim it carried out its attacks under the banner of
   "organizations" such as ELF, ALF or SHAC. In true anarchistic style,
   however, these organizations are amorphous and nonhierarchical - there is
   no single ELF, ALF or SHAC. Rather, the individual activists and cells who
   act on behalf of the organizations control their own activities while
   adhering to guidelines circulated in meetings and conferences, via the
   Internet, and in various magazines, newsletters and other publications.
   These individual activists and cells are driven only by their consciences,
   or by group decisions within the cell. This results in a level of
   operational security that can be hard for law enforcement and security
   officials to breach.

   As noted above, these activists have been far more active in Mexico than
   they have in the United States. One reason for this is that the operating
   environment north of the border is markedly different than it is in
   Mexico. In the United States, the FBI and local and state police agencies
   have focused hard on these activists, and groups like ELF and ALF have
   been branded as domestic terrorists. There have been several major
   investigations into these groups in recent years.

   South of the border it is a different matter. Mexican authorities are
   plagued with problems ranging from drug cartels to Marxist
   terrorist/insurgent groups like the EPR to rampant police and government
   corruption. Simply put, there is a vacuum of law and order in Mexico and
   that vacuum is clearly reflected in statistics such as the number of
   kidnappings inside the country every year. The overall level of violence
   in Mexico and this vacuum of authority provide room for the activists to
   operate, and the host of other crime and violence issues plaguing the
   country works to ensure that the authorities are simply too busy to place
   much emphasis on investigating activist attacks and catching those
   responsible for them. Therefore, the activists operate boldly and with a
   sense of impunity that often leads to an increase in violence - especially
   within the context of a very violent place, which Mexico is at the present
   time.

   This atmosphere means that the activist cells behind the increase in IED
   attacks will be able to continue their campaigns against assorted
   capitalist, animal and ecological targets with very little chance of being
   seriously pursued. Consequently, as the IED campaign continues, the
   attacks will likely become more frequent and more destructive. And given
   Mexico's densely populated cities and the activists' target sets, this
   escalation will ensure that the attacks will eventually turn deadly.

   Read more: Mexico: Emergence of an Unexpected Threat | STRATFOR 
</description>
    <date>2011-12-12 15:33:57</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 12:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5512760_-ct-mexico-hippy-bombers-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:ct@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5513222</id>
    <title>Re: Watch officers - Please read
</title>
    <description>   This is good stuff, Karen. Looking at this it is clear we need to do a
   better job of sending stuff to GV alerts - it makes it to OS (meaning
   monitors are doing their jobs) but not to gvalerts (shame on us). I
   commented on three below, but the point remains that we're missing GV-able
   items. The simplest solution is probably just WOs taking more time to
   become familiar with the client list so that we recognize GV items quickly
   when we're in a hurry.

   I think the breakdown of misses is very helpful. Perhaps as Orit suggested
   we should do this regularly - evaluate the previous shift's work each
   shift? This would be brutal, but it would also be a good exercise (both
   for the person being evaluated and the person doing the evaluating).
   Looking back when there is more time to consider each item, it is easier
   to see my mistakes and as such I'm much less likely to make them again.
   The evaluations would be up for comment by any of the WOs, which would
   help us improve as well. I'll (sheepishly) offer my shift today as the
   first for evaluation if Karen thinks she'll have time to grade me tonight.
   Karen, if you do, go for it - it's nighttime in Orit-land so we probably
   won't hear from her for several more hours. Probably we would only need to
   do this for a week more or less, but it wouldn't have to be a permanent
   fixture as it could become quite time-consuming.

   Here's to more effective WOs!
   Orit Gal-Nur wrote:

     These graphs definitely help us see the layout of our coverage.  It's
     also something we can do every two weeks to monitor AOR coverage from
     the OS and Alerts lists.  But we also need to consider that some of the
     AORs will have more reppable items, such as the Middle East and Europe. 
     Agree on this. Latam is important for mining/lng/oil issues for clients,
     but these don't always make it to reps.
     One side note about the list you compiled below, is it possible that my
     OS box differs from yours?  In my thunderbird, one item on the list
     below was forwarded to alerts, and a few others did not show up at all
     in OS (I don't delete anything from OS). 
     While a crucial aspect of our job is speed, sometimes it's hard to
     balance this with accuracy.  As Karen mentioned, the double and triple
     fact checking is mandatory, but it can slow us in tackling the OS in a
     timely manner.  Sometimes during the quick decision making in whether to
     rep or not, I pass a potential rep only to rep it later after reading
     another article and either seeing it a different perspective or with
     just different wording. Agreed on this, too. We should be fast, but we
     should also be accurate. The solution is to get better at both.
     We need to have exercises that allow us to look critically at our work. 
     One might be the graph below, done on a consistent basis, to see how our
     sweeping and repping is covered.  Another exercise could be to compare
     the time frames from certain days as Karen did, giving us each a chance
     to analyze the lists and eachothers'  repping mistakes.  This type of
     feedback and learning will spread to all aspects of the job and
     influence all our decision making.
     Thanks Karen, this is a good start.

     Karen Hooper wrote:

       Hi all,

       It is clear that we need more accountability and discussion of the
       principles that drive Watch Officer decision-making at Stratfor. Below
       is my own evaluation of the relationship between the OS list and the
       Alerts list between 5 am cst and 1 pm cst Feb. 4. During that time,
       there were a total of 24 items sent to the alerts list and 20 items
       sent to the gvalerts list. There were only three items sent to the GV
       alerts list between 7 am CST and 8 pm CST yesterday, which is a
       problem.

       The alerts list is closer to where it ought to be, but we may have
       missed a few items that should at the very least be brought to the
       attention of the company. We are also just not as fast as we could be.
       I know that I sometimes get caught up in sweeping, consulting with
       monitors and analysts, and double and triple checking things before i
       rep them, which puts me in a position where I've not forwarded alert
       items the list as fast as I ought to. This is something we all need to
       be acutely aware of -- we have to be reactive, and we must err on the
       side of overreaction.

       At the very bottom of this email is a graph showing our sitrepping
       patterns over the last two weeks. The data only include weekdays, and
       do double-count reps that qualify for more than one AOR. I'm not sure
       what is to be learned from it, except our sitrep coverage of Latin
       America is decidedly less than awesome and our coverage of East Asia
       is spotty. Latin America is pretty internally focused right now, but
       we need at the very  least to be picking up the cartel violence. I
       will take the lead on talking to our two monitors who touch on latam
       and putting together some tactical guidance for WOs and Monitors.

       To date, we've been really focused on the monitors, getting them up to
       speed, working out scheduling, etc. It's definitely time that we took
       a look at our own performance, and we need to be thinking about ways
       that we can improve our consistency, speed and thoroughness. Reva has
       pointed out the need to be more careful in our highlighting process,
       which is something she sees easily, first thing in the morning. But we
       are the only ones who can easily go through the OS list -- and we
       should do so in with the aim of keeping each other honest.

       By controlling the flow of information, the watch officers hold the
       family jewels of the company. This will become increasingly true, and
       it's our job to make the right call, every time.

       Below is the result of a sample i took from 5 am CST to 1 pm CST. The
       lists below are of items that probably should have been sent to alerts
       or GValerts:

       GV:
       [OS] TURKEY/ENERGY - Ankara delays natural gas tender for March 14
       [OS] ENERGY - Trans-Black Sea pipeline studies under way
       [OS] UAE/IB - Abu Dhabi plans investment of $280 bln
       [OS] KUWAIT/KSA/ENERGY - Kuwait,    Saudi to increase Neutral Zone oil
       capacity
       [OS] LITHUANIA/POLAND/SWEDEN/ENERGY - Seimas passes nuclear bill I may
       be overlooking something, but I don't see that this one should have
       been GVd.
       [OS] NORWAY/ENERGY - Turbine fire shuts down 20, 000 barrel per day
       Njord A oil platform off Norwa
       [OS] RUSSIA/SOMALIA/CT - Pirates seize Russians, British man off
       Somalia (More details) A similar article was sent to gvalerts prior to
       this one. But it raised a question in my mind - what kinds of updates
       do we need for GV items? So I asked Joe. He says there's no need to
       update a story unless it changes the fundamentals or a briefer
       contacts the WO to say it is important enough to a client to warrant
       tracking more minute changes.
       [OS] ANGOLA/SOUTH AFRICA/IB - Angolan mining potential in focus in
       South Africa I don't think this one needed to be sent to GValerts. The
       only new information is that a presentation is being given.
       S2 - NIGERIA/CT - Rebels claim Nigerian oil delta attack
       [OS] BRAZIL/TURKEY/ENERGY/IB - Petrobras, Turkiye Petrolleri Find
       Black Sea Oil, Referans Says
       [OS] CHINA/IB - Copper Rises as Costs May Curb China's Output; Nickel
       Declines
       [OS] SERBIA/US/PP/IB - Serbia, US Steel sign environmental protection
       deal
       [OS] COLOMBIA/ENERGY - Colombia To Auction Rights To Seek Oil In 151
       Blocks In 2008
       [OS] FRANCE/VENEZUELA/ENERGY/IB - Total Signs 2 Heavy Oil Study Deals
       With PDVSA
       [OS] IB - Airbus Completes First Civil Aircraft Test Flight With
       Alternative Fuel

       Alerts:
       [OS] IRAQ/IRAN/ENERGY - Baghdad protests against Iranian violations of
       Iraqi oilfields
       [OS] JAPAN/CHINA/IB - Japan sends mission to China over food poisoning
       incidents
       [OS] CHAD/CT/UN - EU Chad mission suspended but will go ahead-Solana
       [OS] US/MIL/CT- U.S. Citizen in Singapore Accused of Selling Military
       Hardware to Iran [It was too old to rep, but it should have been sent
       out]
       [OS] IB - White House Budget Request
       [OS] FRANCE/VENEZUELA/ENERGY/IB - Total Signs 2 Heavy Oil Study Deals
       With PDVSA
       [OS] ITALY - Berlusconi Rejects Government as Early Election Looms

       Other issues:
       [OS] EGYPT/GAZA/CT - Palestinian gunfire wounds 2 Egyptian policemen 
       [this was sent to the OS list three times, it was repped over an hour
       after it was first sent to the list]
       [OS] COLOMBIA/CT - Colombians in anti-Farc protests [i repped this
       later, when the numbers were made clear (half a million protesters),
       but it was still pretty impt when sent out at the beginning of the
       day]
       [OS] SPAIN/CT - Spanish police arrest Basque separatists [This was
       repped, but not until an hour after it was sent to the OS list]
       INDIA/MALAYSIA - India, Malaysia seeking ways to join hands in
       fighting terror  [this should have been resent to the OS list with a
       CT tag]

       Sitrepping by AOR over the past two weeks:

                Feb.  Feb.  Jan.  Jan.  Jan.  Jan.  Jan.  Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 
                4     1     31    30    29    28    25    24   23   22   21   
       East         3     6     5     7     3    16     4    3    8    6    8 
       Asia     
       Middle      15    15     7     8     8    17    15   11   17   14   12 
       East     
       Latin        3     4     3     3     3     2     2    1    3    4    6 
       America  
       South        6     9    11     4     5     6    11    6   11   10    5 
       Asia     
       Africa       6     8     6     2     5     1     5    1    7    3    6 
       Europe       6     7     4     8     6     3    16    9    7    9    8 
       FSU          3     5     6     7     6     9     9   11    7    6    4 

 --
 Orit Gal-Nur
 Watch Officer
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 orit.gal-nur@stratfor.com

  

 --
 Thomas Davison
 Watch Officer
 Stratfor
 (512) 366-0196
</description>
    <date>2008-02-05 20:06:05</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 02:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5513222_re-watch-officers-please-read-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>davison@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>hooper@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>watchofficer@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>orit.gal-nur@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5513250</id>
    <title>For the New-Terns
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2008-06-27 20:58:41</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5513250_for-the-new-terns-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/126/126613_FSU sweep list.doc</path><size>41472</size><md5></md5><sha1>5f504b22a86e21d054996eec9a56c763f6430ca8</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/126/126616_GV Client List for Team.doc</path><size>44032</size><md5></md5><sha1>3cb219e751d88534b8296db27ea760bd858c2056</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/177/177181_GEOPOLITICAL IMPERATIVE - RUSSIA.doc</path><size>535552</size><md5></md5><sha1>efb729cc76231c49c38dd6da86b371d072452743</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5514431</id>
    <title>Re: cybersecurity
</title>
    <description>   Hello Veni!

   Sorry for my late reply, as I've been traveling recently.

   I would like to put you in touch with Mr. Nathan Hughes our Security and
   Military analyst. He is highly concentrated on the wars in the world
   (didn't you say you had some friends in Afghanistan ;-) ). But he lead our
   security group's assessment of cybersecurity. His email address is
   Nathan.Hughes@Stratfor.com and I have spoken with him about your possible
   contact. He is also located in DC if you ever wanted to grab a coffee.

   Speaking of DC, I shall be making my way up there soon, will you be in the
   neighborhood in the next week or two?
   Other than that, everything is going well. I am about to publish a series
   on Russia's "to-do" list on relationships with countries it has created
   and still needs to forge. I think you will find it very interesting.

   Speak with you soon!
   Lauren

   Veni Markovski wrote:

     Hi, Lauren.
     Could you put me in touch with the people who do your cybersecurity
     stuff?

     Hope you are fine? How's work? Home?

     best,
     veni

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-02-21 20:59:01</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5514431_re-cybersecurity-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>Lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>veni@veni.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5514676</id>
    <title>CANVAS introduction
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2010-05-09 23:09:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-06-18 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5514676_canvas-introduction-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/13/13931_canvas prezentacija.ppt</path><size>2447360</size><md5></md5><sha1>b19d8bc5894fc090bc7edd356a3d97f8e113dc35</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5514758</id>
    <title>[Fwd: For the New-Tern]
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2008-08-19 19:01:46</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5514758_-fwd-for-the-new-tern-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/126/126613_FSU sweep list.doc</path><size>41472</size><md5></md5><sha1>5f504b22a86e21d054996eec9a56c763f6430ca8</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/126/126616_GV Client List for Team.doc</path><size>44032</size><md5></md5><sha1>3cb219e751d88534b8296db27ea760bd858c2056</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/174/174277_FSU sites.doc</path><size>46080</size><md5></md5><sha1>782c029b6bb316d660abf800e649bd580506ee07</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/175/175579_GEOPOLITICAL IMPERATIVE - RUSSIA.doc</path><size>535552</size><md5></md5><sha1>522ee9fc8d1574ae578b249e35837e189654810c</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5514984</id>
    <title>[Eurasia] FOR NEW-TERN CATHERINE
</title>
    <description>9</description>
    <date>2009-01-06 04:37:37</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5514984_-eurasia-for-new-tern-catherine-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>catherine.durbin@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/126/126613_FSU sweep list.doc</path><size>41472</size><md5></md5><sha1>5f504b22a86e21d054996eec9a56c763f6430ca8</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/126/126616_GV Client List for Team.doc</path><size>44032</size><md5></md5><sha1>3cb219e751d88534b8296db27ea760bd858c2056</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/174/174276_FSU Parliaments.doc</path><size>22528</size><md5></md5><sha1>8de928068b1fb1cfd631a25fb5e0e824f3ddd623</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/174/174277_FSU sites.doc</path><size>46080</size><md5></md5><sha1>782c029b6bb316d660abf800e649bd580506ee07</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/175/175579_GEOPOLITICAL IMPERATIVE - RUSSIA.doc</path><size>535552</size><md5></md5><sha1>522ee9fc8d1574ae578b249e35837e189654810c</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5515132</id>
    <title>[Fwd: New-tern info]
</title>
    <description>2</description>
    <date>2008-09-03 16:48:06</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5515132_-fwd-new-tern-info-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/126/126613_FSU sweep list.doc</path><size>41472</size><md5></md5><sha1>5f504b22a86e21d054996eec9a56c763f6430ca8</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/126/126616_GV Client List for Team.doc</path><size>44032</size><md5></md5><sha1>3cb219e751d88534b8296db27ea760bd858c2056</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/174/174277_FSU sites.doc</path><size>46080</size><md5></md5><sha1>782c029b6bb316d660abf800e649bd580506ee07</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/175/175579_GEOPOLITICAL IMPERATIVE - RUSSIA.doc</path><size>535552</size><md5></md5><sha1>522ee9fc8d1574ae578b249e35837e189654810c</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5515176</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - CHECHNYA/RUSSIA/AUSTRIA - assassination in Vienna
</title>
    <description>   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: if Fred or Stick want it, they can have it
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: high up Kremlin source in security/prosecution
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Ismailov use to be one of Kadyrov's bodyguards and knew many highly
   secretive and intimate things about not only Kadyrov, but his relationship
   with Moscow. Having him taken out was highly important.

   It was Kadyrov's order to take him out though he informed the Kremlin
   powers that he was going to act and received Moscow's blessing.

   Kadyrov didn't send anyone to take Ismailov out in Vienna, but used OC
   assassins already there (LG: fuzzy on this, but not sure if it was
   specifically Russian, Chechen OCs, but could have also used the Turks, who
   are owned by the Russians and work with the Chechens in Austria).

   The interesting thing about this is that Russia allowed Kadyrov to act
   outside his region, which they rarely allow since it would get so much
   attention. But the Kremlin deemed this one necessary.

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-01-14 18:12:05</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5515176_insight-chechnya-russia-austria-assassination-in-vienna-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5516751</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - RUSSIA/LATVIA - Russian to head Latvia ;) 
</title>
    <description>    

   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Moscow
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: inside Kremlin, Surkov's #2
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: C
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

    

   One of the jokes scaring the Latvian political sphere is that Russia would
   like Latvia to place Pyotr Aven (Alfa Bank President and advisor to Putin)
   as head of the new government in Riga. This discussion/joke was made
   between Aven and Putin recently with them, Surkov, (source), and Aven's
   advisor, Alexandre Gafin in the room. No one took it too seriously or as
   an actual plan. But now that rumor of any sort of push by Putin has made
   its way into Latvia, in which most government members are horrified. Aven
   comes from a Latvian family though born in Moscow. Putin hasn 't made any
   serious move this way, but it does show he's thinking about Latvia and how
   Russia can take advantage of the instability. 

    

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-03-13 17:50:10</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5516751_insight-russia-latvia-russian-to-head-latvia-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5516963</id>
    <title>Re: Hello from Stratfor
</title>
    <description>   Dear Lauren,

   Thanks for your letter - we have no objections against any questions and
   any most detailed answers. We had one conversation by Skype with you. Now
   I see for your side there is no sharing personal details, i e. you need to
   confirm exchange of addresses with me. Your l-goodrich is still in my
   Skype list of contacts. So we can easily re-establish communication. We
   are ready to talk at any time - you are welcome tonight or any other time
   since we agree on communication means.

   If you think Skype is not reliable - we have only mobile (+49 1520 608 09
   61) which is even less reliable. Our landlady has a land line, so if you
   tell us particular day and time we can borrow the phone and keep it on our
   side.

   Stratfor daily bulletins kept us up well informed on the urgent events in
   the most difficult and busy times - that helped to check and correct our
   private decisions within the international context.

   I understand your admiration by travelling - which is always refreshing
   and informative for our profession, but I can't forget for a moment that
   Soviet mentality killed my parents, crippled us, destroyed our homes (BTW
   we remember your husband was killed in Siberia if we are not mistaken).
   Ok, you are there temporarily - so you can admire. Admiration - that is
   what we can not understand at Germans towards Russia!

   As for your questions - no secrets or contradictions, but it's better to
   talk that out in person.

   Most sincerely,

   Marina, Victor Kalashnikov

   2011/2/21 Lauren Goodrich &lt;lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;

     Hello Marina and Viktor,

      

     I hope all is well with you. I apologize for the silence, I have been
     traveling in the former Soviet states for a really long time*too long
     for me to be away from my desk. It was a fascinating trip though.

      

     My associates in the security branch of my company saw your interviews
     and were intrigued by them. There were a few questions that they were
     interested in. If you do not want to answer any of them, then do not
     feel pressured.

      

     1) Why were y*all poisoned now versus at an earlier time? I know you
     have told me a few years ago about the poisoning in your apartment, but
     we were curious on the timing of both incidents.

     2) Are you able, Viktor, to let us know what you did for the FSB/KGB, if
     those rumors are even true?

     3) Have either of you heard any rumors behind the death of Comrade J in
     which it would indicate that he was murdered?

      

     My security team is very interested in your story. I will see if it is
     possible to perhaps set up a time for us all to talk together over the
     phone. So we may learn from your experience and learn how to warn those
     we know.

      

     Your friendship is appreciated,

     Lauren
</description>
    <date>2011-02-21 20:59:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5516963_re-hello-from-stratfor-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>Lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>garbogreta280@googlemail.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5519962</id>
    <title>Re: running about 7-8 minutes late -
</title>
    <description>   oh yes... and I am not in my office. I shall be back in 10 min. Call me
   then?
   I apologize for the inconvenience and mix-up.

   Veni Markovski wrote:

     I just realized that we might have had the wrong 3 p.m. I was calling at
     3 p.m. EST, and you may be one hour behind?

     veni

     Lauren Goodrich wrote:

       sounds good... we'll talk to you soon.

       Veni Markovski wrote:

         sorry!

       -- 
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       *STRATFOR
       *T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-07-24 21:20:00</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5519962_re-running-about-7-8-minutes-late-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>veni@veni.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5521009</id>
    <title>Re: [Social] WikiLeaks' Assange complains he's victim of leaks
</title>
    <description>   i voted for assange.  that makes me a tard.  i thought the pic was great
   with the ladies in the back.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: "Michael Wilson" &lt;michael.wilson@stratfor.com&gt;
   To: "Social list" &lt;social@stratfor.com&gt;
   Sent: Tuesday, December 21, 2010 2:37:29 PM
   Subject: Re: [Social] WikiLeaks' Assange complains he's victim of leaks

   yeah I call fraud. I also vote for Eussfajkljasdkjlkask

   On 12/21/10 2:28 PM, Robert Inks wrote:

     We need to form an independent body to determine if this election was
     free, fair and transparent. How many ballots came from
     lukashenko@stratfor.com?

     On 12/21/2010 1:39 PM, Benjamin Sledge wrote:

       I voted for the volcano as well......all the tards voted for Assange.
        Assange is just douchey, the volcano was freakin funny
       -- 
       BENJAMIN
       SLEDGE
       Senior Graphic Designer
       www.stratfor.com
       (e) ben.sledge@stratfor.com
       (ph) 512.744.4320
       (fx) 512.744.4334
       On Dec 21, 2010, at 12:52 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

         Id buy Eyjafjallaji? 1/2kull dinner...

         On 12/21/10 11:48 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           Yes, this third person quote is very weird:
           "The leak of the police report to The Guardian was clearly
           designed to undermine my bail application. It was timed to come up
           on the desk of the judge that morning," Assange was quoted as
           saying in Tuesday's paper. "Someone in authority clearly intended
           to keep Julian in prison, and shopped (the report) around to other
           newspapers as well."

           At least the other Clauses had some capabilities for leadership or
           terrorism or something, they weren't just whiny douchebags. I
           would much rather sit down for dinner with bin Laden, Saddam and
           Adogg than Assange.

           On 12/21/10 12:31 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

             I think the Strat Claus choice was retarded... I couldn't
             believe we voted for him. I am ashamed. I do not recognize the
             vote, it is my formal position.

             Europe AOR will not be present at the award ceremony.

             And just for the record... I voted for the volcano.
             Eyjafjallaji? 1/2kull is not a loser. It took out Europe's
             airspace for a month. Anyone who does that not named Luftwaffe
             deserves the award. Not some poser like Assange.

             On 12/21/10 10:57 AM, George Friedman wrote:

               I love this quote:
               "I was handed a card by one of my black prison guards. It
               said, 'I only have two heroes in the world: Dr. (Martin
               Luther) King, and you,'" he told the newspaper. "That is
               representative of 50 percent of people."

               This is the kind of unstable guy who under pressure cracks
               wide open.  He also refers to himself in the third person.  I
               think this will get interesting.

               On 12/21/10 11:51 , scott stewart wrote:

                 Which of the former Strat-clauses were not losers?

                  

                 BTW, I hear rumors that they are about to re-name
                 Australiai? 1/2.

                  

                 &lt;Mail Attachment.jpeg&gt;

                  

                  

                  

                  

                 From: social-bounces@stratfor.com
                 [mailto:social-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Sean
                 Noonan
                 Sent: Tuesday, December 21, 2010 12:44 PM
                 To: Social list
                 Subject: Re: [Social] WikiLeaks' Assange complains he's
                 victim of leaks

                  

                 what a loser.  I still can't believe y'all voted for him for
                 stratclaus.  At least he wasn't person of the year. 

                 On 12/21/10 6:48 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

                 WikiLeaks' Assange complains he's victim of leaks
                 AP

                 By ROBERT BARR, Associated Press Robert Barr, Associated
                 Press i? 1/2 57 mins ago

                 LONDON i? 1/2 It has come to this: Julian Assange, the
                 founder of WikiLeaks, is complaining that someone leaked a
                 Swedish police report on his alleged sexual offenses.

                 In an interview with the British newspaper The Times,
                 Assange complained about reporting in the rival newspaper
                 The Guardian, which is one of several publications that has
                 been helping WikiLeaks edit its trove of secret U.S.
                 diplomatic files in exchange for an early look at them.

                 The Guardian published details Saturday of the Swedish
                 police report in which two women accuse Assange of rape,
                 based on what it described as "unauthorized access" to
                 prosecutors' files. Assange claimed the newspaper was
                 "selectively publishing" parts of it, and questioned the
                 timing of the leak, saying it was given to the paper a day
                 before his bail hearing last week.

                 "The leak of the police report to The Guardian was clearly
                 designed to undermine my bail application. It was timed to
                 come up on the desk of the judge that morning," Assange was
                 quoted as saying in Tuesday's paper. "Someone in authority
                 clearly intended to keep Julian in prison, and shopped (the
                 report) around to other newspapers as well."

                 Assange, who is contesting a Swedish extradition bid, was
                 freed on bail last week under strict conditions including
                 that he stay at the home of a supporter in southern England,
                 wear an electronic tag, observe a curfew and post a bond of
                 200,000 pounds ($310,000). He faces his next court hearing
                 Jan. 11.

                 Swedish officials want to question Assange about allegations
                 stemming from separate encounters with two women in Sweden
                 over the summer. The women have accused Assange of sexual
                 crimes including rape, molestation and unlawful coercion.
                 Assange denies the allegations, which his lawyers say stem
                 from a dispute over "consensual but unprotected sex." He has
                 not been charged.

                 The Times quoted Assange as saying there is "very suggestive
                 evidence" that the two women were motivated by revenge,
                 money and police pressure.

                 In an editorial, The Guardian defended its coverage, saying
                 it "is unusual for a sex-offense case to be presented
                 outside of the judicial process in such a manner, but then
                 it is unheard of for a defendant, his legal team and
                 supporters to so vehemently and publicly attack women at the
                 heart of a rape case."

                 In a BBC interview aired Tuesday, Assange said he believed
                 the women behind the allegations "found out that they were
                 mutual lovers of mine and they had unprotected sex and they
                 got into a tizzy about whether there was a possibility of
                 sexually transmitted diseases."

                 The women's lawyer, Claes Borgstrom, has said they went
                 through similar experiences with Assange and decided to go
                 to the police together to seek advice on what to do. A
                 policewoman who heard their accounts decided that Assange
                 had probably committed a sex crime of some kind and passed
                 the case to a prosecutor.

                 Borgstrom has criticized Assange for suggesting that the
                 allegations are part of a smear campaign against him and
                 WikiLeaks, which has begun to release what it says are more
                 than a quarter-million leaked U.S. embassy cables,
                 infuriating the United States and governments around the
                 world. Borgstrom says the case has nothing to do with
                 Assange's website or any wider conspiracy against it.

                 Asked by the Times whether he is promiscuous, Assange
                 replied: "I am not promiscuous. I just really like women."

                 He said WikiLeaks had received "tremendous" public support,
                 even when he was in jail.

                 "I was handed a card by one of my black prison guards. It
                 said, 'I only have two heroes in the world: Dr. (Martin
                 Luther) King, and you,'" he told the newspaper. "That is
                 representative of 50 percent of people."

                 Assange didn't immediately return calls Tuesday seeking
                 comment.

 --

 Michael Wilson

 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR

 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112

 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com

  

                  

                 --

                 Sean Noonan

                 Tactical Analyst

                 Office: +1 512-279-9479

                 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

                 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

                 www.stratfor.com

               --

               George Friedman

               Founder and CEO

               Stratfor

               700 Lavaca Street

               Suite 900

               Austin, Texas 78701

               Phone  512-744-4319

               Fax  512-744-4334

 --
 Marko Papic
 Analyst - Europe
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA

           --

           Sean Noonan

           Tactical Analyst

           Office: +1 512-279-9479

           Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

           Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

           www.stratfor.com

 --
 Marko Papic
 Analyst - Europe
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com


   --
   Brian Genchur
   Multimedia Ops Mngr.
   STRATFOR
   P: (512) 279 - 9463
   F: (512) 744 - 4334
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-12-21 22:17:03</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-21 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5521009_re-social-wikileaks-assange-complains-he-s-victim-of-leaks-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>social@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>brian.genchur@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:social@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5521421</id>
    <title>Re: note from Yemeni diplomatic source
</title>
    <description>   Pinged.

   On 1/3/2011 11:24 AM, scott stewart wrote:

     Kamran,

      

     Can you ask ISI for confirmation?

      

     If he was really in Pakistan, it would either indicate closer
     coordination that we had thought - or that the pressure on AQAP is
     greater than we had thought.

      

     Still, there is a pretty robust leadership cadre in AQAP, so his loss
     would not be all that great, even if he really were killed in Pakistan.

      

      

      

     From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Michael Wilson
     Sent: Monday, January 03, 2011 11:02 AM
     To: Analyst List
     Subject: Re: note from Yemeni diplomatic source

      

     here is the original btw

     Bin Laden aide killed in U.S. drone attack in Pakistan: officials+
     Jan 2 07:38 PM US/Eastern
     http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9KGHKT80&amp;show_article=1
     ISLAMABAD, Jan. 3 (AP) - (Kyodo)-Nasir al Wahishi, a Yemeni national who
     reportedly served as an aide of al-Qaida chief Osama bin Laden, was
     killed in a U.S. drone attack in northwestern Pakistan late last year,
     Pakistani security officials said Sunday.

     The officials, who sought anonymity, said Wahishi, 32, was killed on
     Dec. 28 when two missiles were fired on a militant camp at the Ghulam
     Khan sub-district of North Waziristan.

     The officials claimed Wahishi had served as personal assistant of bin
     Laden until 2000.

     On 1/3/11 9:17 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     Pakistani Intelligence leaked news of a drone strike killing Nasir
     Wahayshi, Emir of AQAP in Pakistan....
     Lol early aprils fool... first they said fad quso was  eliminated
      now this

     http://ibnlive.in.com/news/osamas-top-aide-of-killed-in-drone-strike/139261-2.html

     I apologize If I made any spelling or grammar mistakes
                                       .iPad message.

 --

 Michael Wilson

 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR

 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112

 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com

  

   --
</description>
    <date>2011-01-03 17:33:58</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 15:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5521421_re-note-from-yemeni-diplomatic-source-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>bokhari@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/6/6434_Signature.JPG</path><size>53193</size><md5></md5><sha1>5ee8f19bfa1ba0db5c4c413c3fe0d1731b650f71</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5522604</id>
    <title>Re: [Eurasia] Fwd: [OS] BELARUS/ITALY - Italy's Berlusconi visit
 ends Belarus isolation
</title>
    <description>   italy is becoming a Russia-annex ;)

   Matthew Powers wrote:

     Berlusconi's quotes at the beginning of the article are great.  Italy
     has been very active lately in FSU, seems like they are making a big
     push to increase their presence there.

     ----- Forwarded Message -----
     From: "Matthew Powers" &lt;matthew.powers@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: "os" &lt;os@stratfor.com&gt;
     Sent: Monday, November 30, 2009 1:23:11 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
     Subject: [OS] BELARUS/ITALY - Italy's Berlusconi visit ends Belarus
     isolation

     Italy's Berlusconi visit ends Belarus isolation

     By Olga Nedbayeva (AFP) - 35 minutes ago 11-30-09

     http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iyrJcH3fsFZ8JU1V4g8xx5M7eVmA

     MINSK - Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi described Belarus
     strongman Alexander Lukashenko as 'loved' by his people Monday as he
     became the first Western leader to visit the reclusive state in 15
     years.

     Belarussians "love you, which is shown by the elections," Berlusconi
     told President Lukashenko, who is often accused of human rights abuses
     and election rigging, in a declaration after talks on Monday.

     In turn, Lukashenko praised Berlusconi, currently battling accusations
     of links with the mafia and mired in sex scandals, as "a global,
     planetary man of politics, our friend."

     Berlusconi's day-long visit to the former Soviet republic brought to an
     end the diplomatic isolation imposed on Belarus by the West over its
     multiple abuses of human rights after Lukashenko came to power in 1994.

     Lukashenko acknowledged the significance of the visit, telling
     Berlusconi that, "We consider your visit not only in the context of
     bilateral relations but also as eloquent support of our country on the
     international scene."

     The visit focused on strengthening business ties.

     "Our relations are not what they could be.There is potential,"
     Berlusconi said, adding that Italy is in 15th place among foreign
     investors in Belarus.

     "Berlusconi has unique personal contacts that contribute to the
     development of geopolitical contacts. He visits Russia and the Arab
     world," Lukashenko's spokesman Pavel Lyogky told journalists before the
     talks.

     The visit saw the signing of a draft agreement between Italian
     engineering group Finmeccanica and the Belarussian government. The
     leaders also agreed on the creation of a joint industrial zone in the
     town of Brest.

     In a diplomatic move, Lukashenko handed over KGB archives on Italian
     prisoners of war who were captured in Belarus.

     Last year the European Union softened its stance on Belarus and lifted a
     travel ban on Lukashenko and other Belarussian officials, in what was
     seen as a new strategy of engagement with the country.

     Berlusconi's visit came in response to Lukashenko's visit to Rome in
     April. The Italian premier said then that the time had come for Belarus
     to emerge from its isolation.

     Lukashenko has previously received political leaders with an
     anti-Western stance such as Libyan leader Colonel Moamer Kadhafi,
     Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

     The Belarussian leader was elected with a huge majority, but has a
     record of jailing opposition politicians, imposing severe restrictions
     on rallies and blocking any criticism in the state-controlled media.

     Belarussian opposition leader Anatoly Lebedko, head of the United Civil
     Party of Belarus, expressed doubts that the visit would promote
     democratic values in Belarus.

     "Berlusconi is a colourful politician. He resembles Lukashenko, he has a
     spirit of political adventure," Lebedko told AFP.

     "He is coming to Belarus as a businessman. For him, everything is for
     sale at a price, even if this requires him to sacrifice European
     values."

     Belarus is the only country in the European continent not to be part of
     the Council of Europe, after it was booted out in 1997 over multiple
     violations.

     It is a member of the EU's newly-formed Eastern Partnership programme,
     which is intended to regulate relations between the European Union and
     former Soviet states.

     The detente in EU-Belarussian ties comes as Belarus has regularly
     quarrelled with its traditional ally, Russia, in recent years, and
     Lukashenko has exchanged cutting remarks with Russian leaders.

     Matthew Powers
     STRATFOR Intern
     matthew.powers@stratfor.com
     matthew.powers

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-11-30 20:26:31</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-02 13:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5522604_re-eurasia-fwd-os-belarus-italy-italy-s-berlusconi-visit.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5522668</id>
    <title>Insight - Russia - Security Wars
</title>
    <description>   **from a Kremlin source who is involved in the situation.
   This is weird and I had to read it like 5 times to finally get it.
   But this is the story from behind that Kremlin article that was talking
   about the inside security wars going on that Fred sent out a few weeks
   ago.
   sorry I hadn't gotten around to this email yet.

    
   This &lt;&lt;war of the services&gt;&gt; pits the Igor Sechin/Nikolai Patrushev tandem
   (respectively the #2 of the presidential administration and the boss of
   the FSB) and the director of the Federal anti-narcotics agency (FSKN),
   Nikolai Cherkesov, as well as generals Viktor Zolotov and Evgeni Murov
   (director of the FSO, the service charged with protection of senior
   personalities, and head of Vladimir Putin's personal guard).
    
   To summarize the facts, October 1st, general Alexander Bulbov--#2 of FSKN
   in charge of operations and &lt;&lt;right hand man&gt;&gt; of Viktor Cherkesov - as
   well as three of his associates were arrested by agents of the FSB and the
   Prosecutors investigating committee. They were then placed in preventive
   detention following a judgment by the Basmanny tribunal in Moscow. They
   are suspected of corruption and illegal wiretapping. The affair took on a
   public dimension when the boss of the FSKN - in an unprecedented act -
   published a warning in the daily Kommersant against the suicidal impact of
   an open war between these power structures.
    
   In reality, the arrest of general Bulbov is but the visible tip of the
   iceberg. The genesis of this affair can be found around two scandals that
   shook the power centers in recent years which were barely broadcast
   outside the Kremlin. It involved, on one side, &lt;&lt;Tri Kita&gt;&gt;, a furniture
   smuggling case that broke in 2000 implicating senior customs and FSB
   officials. Charged with the case, the general Prosecutor's office - at the
   time directed by Vladimir Ustinov- tried to stifle a matter that risks
   plunging into an endless spiral of retaliation between Interior, Customs
   and the FSB. The situation was so delicate that Vladimir Putin had to call
   on an old university friend, Vladimir Loskutov, an investigator in the
   Saint Petersburg Prosecutor's office, to follow the case. The Russian
   president also chose to assign the FSKN, regarded as &lt;&lt;neutral&gt;&gt;. The
   other case, which finds the same parties involved and which explains the
   most recent events in Moscow, concerns contraband imports from China and
   also directly implicating the FSB, the owner of the warehouses where the
   merchandise was discovered.
    
   &lt;&lt;Tri Kita&gt;&gt; and the &lt;&lt;Chinese connection&gt;&gt; had as a direct consequence
   the dismissal of the General prosecutor Vladimir Ustinov and his team in
   the spring of 2006. The Customs service was also &lt;&lt;purged&gt;&gt; and taken over
   by a trusted associate of the president, Andrei Belyaninov. The head of
   FSB, Nikolai Patrushev, was able to save his skin, but he had to get rid
   of several associates (including the deputy director of economic security,
   Sergei Fomenko) The Sechin-Patrushev-Ustinov  clan saw in these
   misadvantures the hand of Viktor Cherkesov, whose long-held ambitions to
   become the head of the FSB are well known.
    
   The counter-offensive by the Sechin-Patrushev-Ustinov clan (resorting to
   justice) has gone through three phases.
   1)      First they decided to marginalize the Prosecutor General Yuri
   Chaika when he entered office. The Sechin-Patrushev-Ustinov clan saw
   Chaika as too close to Surkov and too close to Cherkesov. So Sechin has
   set up under the radar a new high-profile investigating committee linked
   to his office take over most of his  powers.
   2)      They then drew closer to Alexander Bastyrkin, the head of the new
   committee, who sees no objection to strengthening his team with officers
   from the FSB detached administratively. The role played by Bastyrkin's men
   during the investigation of general Bulbov owes nothing to chance. The
   very fact that Cherkesov's assistant is in personal charge of the Chinese
   smuggling and the &lt;&lt;Tri Kita&gt;&gt; cases also explains a lot.
   3)      The other signal sent by the Patrushov-Sechin clan (to which must
   be added the Interior minister, Rashid Nurgaliev) is the arrest of
   Vladimir Barsukov alias Kumarin generally presented as the &lt;&lt;godfather&gt;&gt;
   of the Tambov group, the main criminal organisation in Saint Petersburg.
   The object of Barsukov's arrest would be to compromise one of the
   principal allies of Cherkesov, general Viktor Zolotov, as well as his
   friend, Evgeny Murov. In place of a &lt;&lt;warning shot&gt;&gt;,  the
   Sechin-Patrushev-Ustinov trio had already in early summer teleguided a
   message by a Duma deputy, Nikolai Kupryanovich, who asked the General
   prosecutor to examine the possible links between Zolotov and Kumarin.
    
   Nikolay Patrushev and Igor Sechin have another reason to want to eliminate
   Zolotov : they in fact suspect him of &lt;&lt;traveling&gt;&gt; with Evgeny Murov, for
   Dmitri Medvedev. It is in fact agents of the FSO who guard over the
   contact between the first vice Prime minister and his principal links
   inside the power structures, namely Alexander Bortnikov- the head of
   economic security for the FSB - , Oleg Safonov- a former KGB agent who
   passed through the Saint Petersburg municipal administration and the Court
   of accounts, named Interior vice minister last year - and Evgeny Shkolov-
   an intelligence agent who was on duty in East Germany with Vladimir Putin
   before becoming a technical adviser to Dmitri Medvedev and taking over the
   department of economic security of the Interior ministry in2006.
    
   Now open to public view, the &lt;&lt;war of the services&gt;&gt; will without doubt
   make Vladimir Putin do what he most dislikes: intervene to arbitrate in
   his closest circle. Otherwise, the second phase of his reign risks
   beginning on a very dangerous base.
    
</description>
    <date>2007-10-23 19:45:39</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5522668_insight-russia-security-wars-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zeihan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5522874</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - RUSSIA - Latest in Clan Wars (protect for now)
</title>
    <description>   The FSB guys will get picked up by new jobs, mob or private services

   We just heard that Chaika has denied the removal of his worker Bagmet....
   he's fighting back, using a loophole in the laws of how to fire within his
   group.

   Peter Zeihan wrote:

     what happens to these guys once they've been removed from their offices?

     Lauren Goodrich wrote:

       CODE: RU101
       PUBLICATION:  checking
       ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
       SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  The Prosecutor General
       SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
       ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
       HANDLER: Lauren
        
       The past few weeks have been particularly difficult between the clans.
        
       Surkov/Medvedev tandem has purge a slew of people from
       Sechin/Patrushev's clan. 21 officials from the Interior Ministry, 5
       FSB Generals in the Defense Ministry and Moscow's police chief Pronin
       have all been purged.
        
       In response, Sechin/Patrushev's group has decided that they need to
       come after me and my group-the Prosecutor General's office. They have
       used their foot soldier, Alexander Bastrykin, in the Investigative
       Committee to launch a purge within my office. Bastrykin vows to not be
       owned by Sechin, though I have never believed this and now my proof is
       here. Thus far they have gotten fired the head of my Investigative
       Committee, Anatoli Bagmet-who was critical to aiding me in my work
       inside our investigations against the Siloviki. Bastrykin is planning
       on firing the heads of the regional Investigative Committees as well,
       12 in all.
        
       The problem is that Sechin/Patrushev want to come after me (Chaika),
       but Surkov will not allow such a move. What I have been told is that
       Putin has laid ground rules on how far each clan can go to  purge the
       other. For example, Surkov's request to have Interior Minister
       Nurgaliyev sacked was quickly nixed by Putin. Now that Sechin's move
       to get me fired has also been shielded from above. So instead there
       are a lot of purges happening on the second tier, like these in the
       past few weeks.
       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       STRATFOR
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-12-21 21:05:26</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5522874_re-insight-russia-latest-in-clan-wars-protect-for-now-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>gfriedman@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zeihan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5522988</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - RUSSIA - Luzhkov's gaff and Med's backlash
</title>
    <description>   **everyone is talking about this, so no one source...
   but if I had to source it...
   CODE: RU101
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

   Luzhkov just made a public (and dangerous) gaff by coming out on an ORT
   talk show in favor of the election of the Russian Federation's governors
   and presidents of republics by direct universal suffrage. The Kremlin has
   not wasted time in responding to the Mayor of Moscow's statement. Dmitri
   Medvedev  qualified the hypothesis of a return to the previous status quo
   as unrealistic and unacceptable. "If this system is not to the liking of
   certain regional heads, they should understand that they are not private
   individuals and they may send me their resignations". The unusually hard
   tone of the President's statement caused surprise and fed new discussions
   on the future of the capital's Mayor. The most logical period is in Autumn
   2009 when the city's council is up for election. One of the scenarios that
   comes up most frequently in discussions in Moscow is that of a merger of
   the capital with its region, the latter headed by Boris Gromov, who also
   is not very popular with the Kremlin. A heavyweight would then be
   appointed to head the new
   authority and particularly cited are Sergei Ivanov  and the secretary-
   general of the government Sergei Sobyanin.

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2008-12-16 17:42:29</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5522988_insight-russia-luzhkov-s-gaff-and-med-s-backlash-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5524777</id>
    <title>Re: HUMINT - RUSSIA - Train explosion... went to chat with Interior
 Ministry on it.
</title>
    <description>   I'm going to pull all the facts thus far together for a preliminary
   early-morning GV... then security can take over from there. (see... I'm
   crossing AORs)

   Lauren Goodrich wrote:

     A Transportation Minister, Igor Levitin.
     The guys that I spoke with were from both the FSB and Prosecutor's
     Office who are working on the case under the Interior Ministry.
     The Transportation Ministry and Prosecutor's Office are part of the
     Interior Ministry. But the FSB is working with IM on this.

     Fred Burton wrote:

       Does Russia have a rail minister? 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
       Sent: Tuesday, August 14, 2007 6:27 AM
       To: 'Analysts'
       Subject: HUMINT - RUSSIA - Train explosion... went to chat with
       Interior Ministry on it.
       Okay, I went and talked with quiet a few people on this, especially at
       the Interior Ministry.
        
       This is not the top story here in Russia, but is in the top three...
       so it is still very important.
        
       The bomb went off in one of the busiest if not the busiest train
       tracks in Russia. That route between Moscow and St. Petes is used 24
       hours a day. The bomb went off late last night. It is very common by
       both common people and by businessmen to use that train overnight to
       be in Moscow all one day sleep overnight on the train and then be in
       St. Petersburg the next morning for business or other things. I myself
       have done that many times.
       No one was killed but six were injured.  
        
       The Russian authorities I spoke with are saying that wanna-be Chechen
       militants are behind this. That the attack was not from an organized
       or powerful Chechen militant group, but was created to resemble the
       2003 Chechen militant attack that killed 46 on a Russian train. The
       authorities are saying the explosives weren't powerful or well-made
       like the actual Chechen ones.
        
       I asked if this could be from Moscow-based Chechen militants or what
       Strat likes to call `home-grown' regional groups and the two
       authorities I spoke with said that that would definitely make sense
       and is something they are heavily looking into.
        
       I also asked if this was in response to Russia moving a much larger
       amount of troops into the Southern Caucasus and the authorities
       assured me that Russian forces have squashed the majority of real
       militants in Dagestan, Chechnya and Ingushetia-that this attack seemed
       to be some amateur's attempt to stage an attack that was meant to look
       like or be like those that would come from real S. Caucasus militants.
        
</description>
    <date>2007-08-14 13:47:24</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5524777_re-humint-russia-train-explosion-went-to-chat-with-interior.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5528371</id>
    <title>The Starter Apology
</title>
    <description>   Dear Reva,
    
   I know that you've known the truth for a while. This note is not about
   lengthy explanations or trivial justifications, it is about humble
   apologies. The rest can wait for another day.
    
   But today I need to simply apologize for my actions. I have abused your
   faith and friendship in me to the utmost degree. I have no excuse for my
   actions. They were selfish, ridiculous, disloyal and treacherous.
    
   You gave me nothing but your honest trust and confidence and I betrayed
   all this with my lies and exaggerations.
    
   I know it will take years for me to regain your trust in my work at Strat
   and that I shall never possibly regain your trust in me personally. But I
   shall spend that time to prove that your faith in my work at least was not
   misguided, as my work was genuine and hard.
    
   I have taken the past week to reflect on my deceit and myself. I have a
   lot of fundamental things wrong with me and my life. I am getting the help
   I need. I am clear now on what I have done wrong and how many people I
   have hurt both personally and professionally. I have no excuse.
    
   Thank you for listening to my apology though I do not deserve such credit.
   Feel free to contact me or not as you may need time to think about how to
   handle me in the future, which I get.
    
   Sincerely,
   Lauren
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-03-16 04:30:46</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5528371_the-starter-apology-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reva.bhalla@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5528809</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - RUSSIA - sacked SMFs commander 
</title>
    <description>   [LG: with regards to Peter's question on the fired Strategic Missile
   Forces commander today]
    

   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Senior within the Kremlin circle  
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
   DISTRIBUTION: Eurasia, Military, Peter Zeihan
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
    
   Solovtsov was sacked over a string of issues. It has been long coming. He
   was too vocal about his disagreement with any new arms deals with the US,
   especially about the 1500 mark for reductions. Then there are the
   embarrassing Bulava failures. His mouth plus his failures are too much for
   the Kremlin and he had to go. Solovtsov's replacement, Shvaichenko, knows
   his place and will never publicly run his mouth. Plus he has seen what
   failure will do to job security. I expect him to be a tougher commander of
   the SMFs.

   ---
   Sent from my BlackBerry device on the MTS Network 
    
</description>
    <date>2009-08-03 22:05:52</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5528809_insight-russia-sacked-smfs-commander-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>watchofficer@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5528818</id>
    <title>New-tern Info...
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2009-05-11 22:15:18</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5528818_new-tern-info-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>marko.papic@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>robert.reinfrank@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/126/126613_FSU sweep list.doc</path><size>41472</size><md5></md5><sha1>5f504b22a86e21d054996eec9a56c763f6430ca8</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/126/126614_Team Eurasia 090302.xls</path><size>32768</size><md5></md5><sha1>28e478efb0ca246f5d14580c350a313b517c6015</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/126/126615_READING LIST.doc</path><size>25600</size><md5></md5><sha1>e7b422f4dc8572bca673c6d069212ba6d72b06de</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/126/126616_GV Client List for Team.doc</path><size>44032</size><md5></md5><sha1>3cb219e751d88534b8296db27ea760bd858c2056</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5528964</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - RUSSIA/FAR EAST - more on new guy, Ishayev 
</title>
    <description>    
   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: One of the top within the Kremlin circle  
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
    
   Ishayev's job will be to consolidate all the mess in the Far East. It is
   really unwieldy and chaotic in that region. Yes the governors have been
   replaced, but there hasn't been a consolidation politically or
   economically of the institutions, power and groups in order for the
   Kremlin to feel confident in the region's ability to coordinate itself or
   abroad.
    
   Ishayev's predecessor, Safonov, was suppose to do this consolidation, but
   he was too wrapped up in strong-arming the players in the region, that he
   scared off a lot of efficient people. Ishayev has a lighter touch. But he
   is no pushover, for he was trained by Surkov-who is his guardian and
   backer.
    
   The problems I foresee is that bc he is a Surkov man, that Ishayev may get
   involved in the Rosneft-vs-Surkov politics. I can not say this for sure
   since even Surkov knows that the Far East energy is Rosneft and TNK's
   turf. But lets just say Ishayev will be keeping an eye on how efficient
   those groups are.
    
   Ishayev has relationships with all three of the big Asians. But they are
   very different relationships with each. He doesn't trust the Chinese and
   sees them as an enemy and untrustworthy. He has been ordered to curb his
   feelings, but the Kremlin is keeping a close eye on him just in case.
   Ishayev thinks a relationship with the Japanese is the way for Russia's
   future. He is deeply tied into the Japanese system both politically and
   economically. Ishayev has a relationship with the Koreans, but is still
   unsure of them. He isn't against them, but doesn't feel he understands
   their game yet, like he does with the other two.
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-05-18 17:29:49</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5528964_insight-russia-far-east-more-on-new-guy-ishayev-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5529333</id>
    <title>Re: Research Task - Shady Bulgarian.
</title>
    <description>   that is good enough... thanks much darlin!

   Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

     nothing in the media or elsewhere that could link him to FSB or OC -
     that's after a quick research done. Will continue digging on this one
     but the guy has also wanted to become mayor of Sofia so I guess that at
     least rumors should have been said if he was linked to OC. Anyways, will
     let you know if I get anything else on the guy. here's his personal
     page: http://www.veni.com/cv.html

     Lauren Goodrich wrote:

       Hey missy,

       Will you do me a favor tonight/tomorrow and check into this guy: Veni
       Markovski. He has his own wikipedia page
       http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veni_Markovski. Was wondering if he has
       OC or FSB connections.

       I don't need an in depth search, but any flags you find would be
       helpful. It is not a client project, but a security problem for us.

       Thanks!

       Lauren
       --

       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       Stratfor
       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2008-08-11 15:15:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5529333_re-research-task-shady-bulgarian-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>colibasanu@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>brycerogers@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5529417</id>
    <title>Greetings from Stratfor
</title>
    <description>   Mr. Markovski,
    
   Fred Burton passed along your information to me, saying you were
   interested in speaking to someone at Stratfor who deals with the region.
   Sorry for the delay in contacting you, but the war took all my attention I
   admit.
    
   I am the Senior Eurasia analyst and admit to having recognized your name
   off the bat. I know you do much business all around Eurasia, especially
   Eastern Europe and Russia. I would love to hear your thoughts on the
   recent events, especially since you are so deeply hooked into the region.
    
   Let me know when you would like to chat; my email and contact number is
   below.
    
   Cheers,
   Lauren
   --
   Lauren E. Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2008-08-14 20:46:07</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5529417_greetings-from-stratfor-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>veni@veni.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5530984</id>
    <title>Re: [CT] INSIGHT - Moscow Car Bomb
</title>
    <description>   he's just mad at me because I called him 5 times during the night.
   It's Chaika (Russia's Prosecutor General)--- #4 in Kremlin.
   He owes his life to me and my dad, so my response to him was "don't be a
   dick &amp; just get me the info"

   Fred Burton wrote:

     Sounds like this chap has the red arse.  Want me have him
     "disappeared"? 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: ct-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:ct-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf
     Of Karen Hooper
     Sent: Friday, March 28, 2008 3:43 PM
     To: Analyst List; 'CT'
     Subject: [CT] INSIGHT - Moscow Car Bomb
     CODE: RU101
     PUBLICATION: yes
     ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
     SOURCES RELIABILITY: B
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
     SPECIAL HANDLING: Analysts &amp; CC Fred &amp; Anya
     SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
     &lt;!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--&gt;
     &lt;!--[endif]--&gt;
      
     I am now on vacation. Dont respond with complaints.
     All I know from the reports sent to me is that the device was put on gas
     tank set to go off when the engine was started.
     Pissant shit since no body to collect. Took place in Michurinsky
     Prospekt. Car was Toyota Avensis.
     Now quit bothering me.

     --
     Sent via BlackBerry from MTS Russia

     Lauren Goodrich
     Eurasia Analyst
     Stratfor
     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

     --
     Karen Hooper
     Watch Officer
     Stratfor Intern Coordinator
     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
     Tel: 703.469.2182 ext 2120
     Fax: 703.469.2189
     hooper@stratfor.com

       ------------------------------------------------------------------

 _______________________________________________
 Analysts mailing list

 LIST ADDRESS:
 analysts@stratfor.com
 LIST INFO:
 https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts
 LIST ARCHIVE:
 http://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2008-03-28 22:21:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5530984_re-ct-insight-moscow-car-bomb-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5531300</id>
    <title>Re: Checking in
</title>
    <description>   Good evening,
   out of my second meeting though it is nearly one in the morning. Going to
   bed now at my godfather's house.
   Everything is okay here, hope everything is well with y'all.
   Chat with y'all tomorrow.
   Lauren

   Lauren Goodrich wrote:

     Hello Gentlemen,

     I am out of my impromptu meeting and have a two hour break before my
     second meeting which should go pretty late, so I may not check back in
     tonight since I may sleep at godfather's house instead. Everything is
     okay here.

     Though I did spend the first 45 minuets of my three and a half hours
     with the Defense Committee being screamed at. It was such a hostile
     meeting, but nothing I couldn't handle. I did yell back on a few
     occasions. ;) They yelled at me for "forcing" them to meet with them on
     a Sunday (one guy screamed that he was being forcibly kept away from his
     wife and two babies just because "this girl happens to be the darling of
     a powerful man in the Kremlin"). Then they yelled at me for being a girl
     and trying to be in the "man's world of defense". Then for being
     connected to Stratfor and the American Administration. I thought that
     they were going to blame me for the Kursk or the fall of the Soviet
     Union they hated me so much. 

     But we did finally get past all this and discuss the Russian defense
     sector in great detail.

     Just thought y'all would get a chuckle out of my scoldings.

     Thanks!
     Lauren

     Lauren Goodrich wrote:

       Hello Gentlemen,
       One of the many unexpected impromptu meetings during this trip just
       popped up. I shall leave in a little over an hour to go meet with the
       Kremlin's Advisory Board for the Ministry of Defense. The main contact
       there is Ruslan Pukhov, though I shall be sitting down with the entire
       board. It will be at the Ministry of Defense behind the Kremlin.
       After this meeting, I shall leave for my second meeting. I shall check
       in between meetings.
       Other than that, everything is okay.
       Thanks, Lauren.
       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       STRATFOR
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     STRATFOR
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-11-22 22:51:44</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5531300_re-checking-in-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>chris.farnham@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5531544</id>
    <title>INSIGHT -RUSSIA -  update on Chaika-Patryushev battle
</title>
    <description>   CODE:RU101
   PUBLICATION: no
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2 (he's too involved, to say the least)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Secure
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
    
   As we know Chaika's battle over who gets the new Russian FBI position has
   been fierce. Patryushev and Sechin put their guy forward, Alex
   Basturkin-who is an old companion of Putin's. Basturkin works below Chaika
   in the Prosecutor General's office, but tried to take the credit in front
   of Putin for a slew of recent OC and smuggling nabs. He was active in the
   Bulbov and Storchak affair.
    
   Well, since the end of March Chaika has put Bastyrkin on the defensive...
   he has started to clean house among the top Russian prosecutors who are
   more loyal to Bastyrkin than Chaika. He just suspended four of Russia's
   biggest prosecutors: Dmitri Dovgy, Alexei Novikov, Sergei Glukhikh and
   Yuri Ermakov. Now Chaika is starting corruption cases against all of them.
   Dovgy had received 2 million dollars in exchange for the liberation of a
   suspect, a deal all the more disgraceful in that it concerned an affair
   linked to Yukos. Ermakov and Glukhikh for their part may have worked for
   the transfer of Vladimir Barsukov -the "godfather" of the Tambov mafia in
   Saint Petersburg arrested last autumn - from his high-security cell in the
   notorious Matroskaya Tishina to Saint Petersburg, where he was able to
   regain his freedom thanks to other connections.
    
   To put it simply, right now Chaika is rubbing his hands. The contest
   between him against Bastyrkin appears as won for now. But, as is
   well-known, Chaika has bigger fish to fry and certain allies to help
   boost. Mainly the boss of the Federal anti-narcotics service, Viktor
   Cherkesov. With the most recent attacks by Chaika on Patryushev's man
   Bastyrkin, Cherkesov believes more than ever in his chances to replace
   Nikolay Patryushev in the Lubyanka after mid-May.
    
   Of course, all this is up to Putin in the end, who is trying to find a way
   to remove Patryushev from his post without disrupting the balance. One
   option is to offer him a post as vice Prime minister in charge of power
   structures; the other option is to give a delay on any shifts to see how
   snap reactions to the power handover go first and then start to make
   changes in autumn.
    
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2008-04-11 06:36:51</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5531544_insight-russia-update-on-chaika-patryushev-battle-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>reporting@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5532194</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - RUSSIA/US - few tidbits from Surkov on US trip
</title>
    <description>   CODE: RU143
   LG: Met with Surkov in NYC for brunch... we only had 2 hours bc I gave him
   short notice, but we discussed very little on his cause for being in the
   States and a lot on the Kremlin Wars stuff.
    
   Surkov arrived late Thurs night. He was suppose to have meetings arranged
   for him in DC, but there is a general boycott going on in the city against
   him. He is VERY displeased about it.
    
   Surkov held a private chat with McFaul this weekend &amp; will hold the Civil
   Society group with McFaul on Wednesday.
    
   His other meetings (he wouldn't say who with) were canceled because 71
   members of Congress are demanding that the US boycott the Obama-Medvedev
   Civil Society group and Surkov's visit to the US overall. It is Surkov
   himself they have a problem with. The way the congressmen say it is that
   Surkov is behind Russian authoritative course-which he said laughingly
   reminding me that Russia has only known authoritative rule for a thousand
   years. 
    
   Surkov had only to tell McFaul what he wanted while in the states-about
   Russia's new reality. Russia's ability to do what it needs without fear of
   the US, though the US still needed Russia.  But McFaul wouldn't listen to
   anything from him, bringing up the same stalled issues of START, etc.
   Other than that, he said McFaul was a "fool" and it was a pity that this
   was the man Obama listens to on Russia.
    
   Because of the unwelcome reception in DC, Surkov has stopped off in NYC
   for a few days with his delegation (lawyers, economists, Gazprom, etc).
    
   Other than this, Surkov didn't want to discuss his current trip. He seemed
   really angry over the general boycott against him, since it wasn't
   anti-Russia sentiments (which he thrives off of) but anti-Surkov
   sentiments. It seemed to me that there was something else pretty big in
   that which he wasn't telling me.
    
   **LG: I'll type up the Kremlin wars stuff and some small other things in
   the morning. Crashing now
    
    
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-01-25 04:39:40</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5532194_insight-russia-us-few-tidbits-from-surkov-on-us-trip-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5532670</id>
    <title>Re: [Eurasia] FSU digest - Eugene - 101005
</title>
    <description>   If it is in Washington, Clinton had to attend. Even if relations suck
   right now.

   Bryza is incredibly pro-Azerbaijani &amp; his wife is Turkish... their wedding
   was paid for by the Turkish government in Istanbul. The Armenian Lobby is
   blocking the assignment. This should not be decided until January. US
   elections are everything here... unless Arm lobby is afraid their
   candidates are about to be booted from office in which Bryza will be
   vetoed today. I have a ton of intel on this but haven't typed it up.

   Marko Papic wrote:

     Eugene Chausovsky wrote:

       GEORGIA/US
       The Georgia-US Strategic Partnership Charter sessions will be held in
       Washington from October 5 to 10. Georgian Prime Minister Nika Gilauri
       will lead the Georgian side, while Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
       will head the US side at the negotiations. Philip Gordon, the
       Assistant Secretary of State will also attend the meeting. As Lauren
       side, the Georgians have really lost confidence in their relationship
       with the US, so even in these kinds of meetings,  the Georgians do not
       believe they will get anything out of it outside of rhetoric. Although
       hey, Clinton is attending... she could have just sent Gordon.

       GEORGIA/AZERBAIJAN/ROMANIA/HUNGARY/BULGARIA
       Georgian Energy Minister Alexander Khetaguri said that it is possible
       that Bulgaria could join the Azerbaijan-Georgia-Romania Interconnector
       (AGRI) project in the future.
       Azerbaijan, Georgia, Romania and Hungary have already signed the Baku
       Declaration on AGRI project in Baku September 14. To continue to add
       countries on to the list only goes to show how this project is much
       more political that technically realistic. I wouldn't be surprised if
       more countries are added in the future.

       BELARUS/RUSSIA
       Belarus and Russia have signed an agreement to move customs control of
       vehicles to the external border of their Union State. The inking
       ceremony was held in Minsk on Tuesday, with the Belarusian and Russian
       transport ministers, Ivan Shcherba and Igor Levitin, taking part. The
       agreement, which envisages the abolition of customs control of
       vehicles moving across the Belarusian-Russian border, is to take
       effect following the completion of internal procedures in both
       countries. Despite the recent tension in the two countries' relations
       Russian Transport Minister Igor Levitin said: "There are no problems
       at the level of the transport ministries". As we've said before, these
       tensions do not spill over into the security realm, and border control
       certainly falls into this category.

       Also, One Russia MP Konstantin Zatulin has said that Moscow might be
       preparing for non-recognition of the results of Belarus' 19 December
       presidential election which the incumbent, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, is
       expected to win. Just speculation by an MP, but this is a possibility
       that I don't think we can dismiss entirely.

       BELARUS/GERMANY
       Deputy Foreign Minister of Belarus Sergei Aleinik said that Belarus
       considers energy cooperation with Germany as promising, in areas like
       alternative energy where Germany has cutting-edge technologies.
       This was mainly niceties on the sidelines of the 20th anniversary of
       the German reunification meeting, but it is kinda ironic that Belarus
       would play up ties with Germany, especially since Nord Stream is
       explicitly designed to avoid Belarus and take Russian gas straight to
       Germany. One day, Belarus will get its gas via Germany... now that
       would be ironic

       AZERBAIJAN/US
       The U.S. Senate will consider the nomination of Matthew Bryza as the
       U.S. ambassador to Azerbaijan today. The U.S. Senate Foreign Relations
       Committee approved the nomination of Matthew Bryza as the U.S.
       ambassador to Azerbaijan on Sept.22. Senators on the committee voted
       17-to-2, and Bryza's appointment now must be confirmed by the U.S.
       Senate. Let's see if this finally happens today. what's his background
       / ethnicity... Bryza? Interesting last name...

       KYRGYZSTAN
       Members of the political movement 34 held a protest in Bishkek today.
       They threw bags of dung at the OSCE building in Bishkek in protest
       against plans to deploy a police advisory mission. Yes, that's right,
       dung. Would have hated to be the intern at 34 who had to get the dung
       into bags... On the other hand, tells you what's readily available in
       Kyrgyzstan. Imagine looking for some dung in Austin to fling at the
       Capitol. Not so easy. But in Bishkek it is apparently all over the
       place. Good to know.

     --

     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

     Marko Papic

     Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

     STRATFOR

     700 Lavaca Street - 900

     Austin, Texas

     78701 USA

     P: + 1-512-744-4094

     marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2010-10-05 16:12:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-12 20:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5532670_re-eurasia-fsu-digest-eugene-101005-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>eurasia@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5533172</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - RUSSIA - Christmas attacks 
</title>
    <description>   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION:  background
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the PG office
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Prosecutor General
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
   HANDLER: Lauren

   These are the four guys the FSB &amp; Interior Ministry is trying to find this
   week in connection to a planned attack in Moscow on Orthodox Christmas.
   The plot is for a major attack on some of the religious gatherings in the
   city. Security has been stepped up in all major celebrations and we are
   prepared.

   It is strange that the first suspect is not from the Caucasus.
   1. Alexander Tikhomirov - a native of the Republic of Buryatia, 27 years
   old. Known by the nickname "Said Buryat"

   2. Tazieff Ali, 35 years old. Nickname - Magas.

   3. Timur Tsotiev, 22 years old.

   4. Ali Jani, 17 years old. Brother's widow known Ingush policy Maksharip
   Aushev.

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-12-30 16:20:31</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5533172_insight-russia-christmas-attacks-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5536407</id>
    <title>Re: FW: email of Fred Burton
</title>
    <description>   Okay, heard back from my side.
   He is hooked into the Bulgairan OC, but nothing too shady bout that since
   he is Bulgarian.
   He is not hooked into the Russians either through OC or FSB.

   Fred Burton wrote:

     Thank you

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Sunday, August 10, 2008 11:39 PM
     To: Fred Burton
     Subject: Re: FW: email of Fred Burton
     Markovski is a huge internet mogul in Bulgaria. He is kinda a strange
     guy, but very powerful in business circles. I've shipped his name to my
     ppl to see if he is hooked into FSB or OC. But he is one of the biggest
     founders of Internet in Bulgaria and the region. I know he has ties into
     Russia and the rest of the CIS.

     To be honest, I can't imagine him having a "gmail" account with his own
     name on it. That seems really suspect to me since he is such a powerful
     and rich dude.

     Fred Burton wrote:

        Any idea who these folks are?  Thx  

       -----Original Message-----
       From: veni Markovski [mailto:venimarkovski@gmail.com] On Behalf Of
       Veni Markovski
       Sent: Sunday, August 10, 2008 4:46 PM
       To: service@stratfor.com
       Subject: email of Fred Burton

       Hi.

       I am looking for the e-mail of Mr. Burton. Would be glad, if you can
       send it.

       Thank you.

       Sincerely,

       Veni Markovski

       Senior Advisor for International Projects
       &lt;http://www.daits.government.bg/&gt;State Agency for IT and
       Communications &lt;http://www.government.bg/&gt;Council of Ministers |
       REPUBLIC OF BULGARIA
       ----------------
       email: &lt;mailto:veni@veni.com&gt;veni@veni.com | email2:
       &lt;mailto:veni@daits.government.bg&gt;veni@daits.government.bg
       office: +1-646-873-7708 | office2: +359-2-401-8008 | fax:
       +1-212-319-5955 Bulgarian Consulate General, 121 E 62nd Str., New
       York, NY 10021, USA

     --

     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     Stratfor
     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2008-08-11 15:15:23</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5536407_re-fw-email-of-fred-burton-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5537607</id>
    <title>Re: FW: Hi
</title>
    <description>   I'll ping him... he's a straaaaange man &amp; could be interesting.

   Fred Burton wrote:

 
 Any interest in talking to him? 

 -----Original Message-----
 From: Veni Markovski [mailto:veni@veni.com]
 Sent: Tuesday, August 12, 2008 8:39 AM
 To: Fred Burton
 Subject: Re: Hi

 Hi.
 I saw Strafor's George Fridman being quoted in the New York Times on the
 situation in Georgia, and that triggered my interest, as I have a lot of
 contacts on different levels in Russia/CIS/Black Sea region.
 I would be thankful if you could point me to someone at Stratfor, who is
 dealing with the region, so that we can exchange some information, and see
 if there might be potential for some future cooperation.

 Would it be possible to talk to someone over the phone? My phone is
 646-873-7708

 Thanks.


  

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2008-08-12 18:51:08</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 11:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5537607_re-fw-hi-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>zeihan@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5537645</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - CHINA/KAZAKH - New Uranium Deals in Kazakhstan
</title>
    <description>   Russia owns much of Kaz's uranium industry. Russia struck quite a few
   deals with China a few years back on jointly develpoing Kaz uranium.

   Matt Gertken wrote:

     Kazakhstan is counterbalancing Russia with deals like this uranium mine
     deal, I agree. But I'm not sure about China being so much more confident
     about their inroads to Kazakhstan -- why would the Chinese proceed with
     overoptimism, having seen Russia's willingness to exert itself and
     reclaim areas of past influence? won't Russia try to shorten Astana's
     leash at some point?

     Ultimately, will Moscow simply have to accept Beijing's dominance in
     purchasing Kazak's resources, or will there be a clash down the road
     when competition becomes fiercer?

     Jennifer Richmond wrote:

       SOURCE: CN65
       ATTRIBUTION: Ex-govt Aussie Source
       SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian State Senator
       PUBLICATION: Background
       SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
       ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
       DISTRIBUTION: Analysts, EA, Central Asia
       SPECIAL HANDLING: None

       I think the source got this from some OS press (with his own
       interpretation of events), but he is in the know on Chinese resource
       deals and says he can get more if we are interested.  If so, please
       send me specific questions.

       I don't know if you guys saw, but the Chinese have this month acquired
       large stakes in the uranium mining and downstream uranium industry in
       Kazakhstan.

       CGNPC has taken a 49% interest in two mines run by Kazatomprom. CNNC
       has also taken a 49% interest in another Kazakh company that will do
       conversion and possibly processing.

       Obviously these conjoined deals have a lot of implications. First,
       China is feeling much more confident in Central Asia, and Central Asia
       is feeling much more comfortable with China.

       On another level, this can be seen as Kazakhstan giving an enormous
       finger to Russia.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director, Stratfor
 US Mobile: (512) 422-9335
 China Mobile: (86) 15801890731
 Email: richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com



  

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   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2008-11-25 15:12:48</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5537645_re-insight-china-kazakh-new-uranium-deals-in-kazakhstan-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5537937</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - Sechin in Vene &amp; Cuba
</title>
    <description>   he also doens't travel much... ppl tend to come to him instead. His ego
   doesn't fit on most planes.

   scott stewart wrote:

     Wow. Another piece of the puzzle falls into place.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Lauren Goodrich
     Sent: Wednesday, September 17, 2008 9:51 AM
     To: Analyst List
     Subject: Re: INSIGHT - Sechin in Vene &amp; Cuba
     head of all Russian defense industries &amp; exports

     scott stewart wrote:

       Who is Chemezov and what does he signify?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
       [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Lauren Goodrich
       Sent: Wednesday, September 17, 2008 5:11 AM
       To: Analyst List
       Subject: INSIGHT - Sechin in Vene &amp; Cuba
       CODE: RU101
       PUBLICATION: yes
       ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
       SOURCES RELIABILITY: B
       ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
       SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

       Chemezov went with him, so that should tell you what direction the
       talks went in. 
       --
       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       Stratfor
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

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     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     Stratfor
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

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   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2008-09-17 16:01:38</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5537937_re-insight-sechin-in-vene-and-cuba-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5539050</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - RUSSIA/ESTONIA - few details on Russian spy in Tallinn
</title>
    <description>   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Moscow
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: high within law enforcement
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
   The Estonian authorities confirmed something about which hardly anyone
   doubted anyway - that Herman Simm, a top civil servant in the Ministry of
   Defense arrested on 21 September for passing intelligence to a foreign
   power was working for the SVR.
    
   Born in 1947, during the Soviet period Herman Simm worked at the Ministry
   of the Interior and apparently was recruited by the KGB while he was a
   student at the MVD Academy in Moscow. After confessing and having decided
   to cooperate fully with the law, he said that he had been blackmailed by
   the Russian services that had threatened to reveal his connection to the
   KGB during the Soviet period.
    
   It is an extremely embarrassing business for Tallinn as, until March 2006
   Simm had access the country's most sensitive documents. In fact, he
   directed the State secrets department for six years after heading the
   Estonian Minister of Defense's information analysis bureau between 1995
   and 2000. He also had access to NATO documents that had been passed to
   Estonia under the Alliance's information exchange procedures. Although he
   was taken in for questioning by his country's counter espionage authority
   he was in fact unmasked by a foreign agency.
    
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2008-12-16 17:40:31</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5539050_insight-russia-estonia-few-details-on-russian-spy-in-tallinn.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5539167</id>
    <title>Discussion ? - Brz FM fears more acts of violence in	agriculture
 sector against braziguayos
</title>
    <description>   how much worse?

   Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

Amorim teme mas actos de violencia contra brasiguayos                                             
                                                                                                  
El ministro de Relaciones Exteriores del Gobierno de Lula dijo que la situacion se agravo desde   
que Lugo asumio el poder en Paraguay, el pasado 15 de agosto. Folha de Sao Paulo reprodujo el     
informe.                                                                                          
                                                                                                  
http://www.ultimahora.com/notas/186762-Amorim-teme-m%C3%A1s-actos-de-violencia-contra-brasiguayos 
                                                                                                  
The Brazilian FM Celso Amorim comments on the situation of Brazilian farmers in Paraguay comes    
from a government report (turned in at the end of Dec 08) that was publicly published by Folha    
yesterday.  In the report Amorim say that, while the situation in Paraguay's country side remain  
relatively under control, there is still a risk that violence will increase.  He also stated that 
Paraguayan Pres. Lugo's promises of land reform (which have yet to be fulfilled) have exacerbated 
tensions between Brazilians and Paraguayans living in the countryside.                            
                                                                                                  
El canciller brasileno Celso Amorim sostiene que la situacion de los brasiguayos es tensa y       
corren el riesgo de sufrir mas actos de violencia.                                                
                                                                                                  
Amorim hace dicha evaluacion en un informe que envio al diputado federal Raul Jungmann (PPS-PE),  
a pedido de este, a fines de diciembre, segun publico ayer Folha de Sao Paulo en su sitio web.    
                                                                                                  
El ministro brasileno expresa en el documento que la ultima ola de conflictos agrarios ocurrieron 
al final del 2004 e inicio del 2005. Despues mermo hasta que la situacion se agravo luego de la   
eleccion del presidente de la Republica de Paraguay, Fernando Lugo.                               
                                                                                                  
El articulo de Folha dice que el documento tiene 11 paginas, esta firmado por Amorim y fue        
enviado al cuerpo legislativo brasileno.                                                          
                                                                                                  
El canciller sugiere que las promesas de Lugo de hacer una reforma agraria profunda, que todavia  
no se materializo, exacerban las tensiones latentes entre los brasileros campesinos y los grupos  
de sintierras paraguayos.                                                                         
                                                                                                  
El ministro relata que la situacion en el campo paraguayo permanece relativamente bajo control,   
pero agrega que eso no significa que no haya riesgo de aumento de la violencia, con las           
consecuencias que puede generar.                                                                  
                                                                                                  
Amorim describe testimonios de brasileros que buscan alguna solucion por medio de la sede         
diplomatica en Asuncion y quienes dicen que los funcionarios publicos paraguayos les piden coima  
para regularizar su situacion migratoria, segun comenta Folha.                                    
                                                                                                  
La situacion de inseguridad es mayor en el Departamento (Estado en Brasil) de San Pedro, segun el 
canciller. "La posibilidad de un conflicto y de la explosion de violencia en esa zona es grande", 
afirma el ministro brasileno.                                                                     
                                                                                                  
SIN REFORMA. Amorim dijo que Lugo "no presento hasta el momento un programa de reforma agraria,   
pese al destaque que dio al este tema a lo largo de su campana electoral".                        
                                                                                                  
El ministro recordo que Paraguay fue el ultimo integrante del Mercosur que aprobo el acuerdo de   
residencia mutua de ciudadanos de paises miembros, pero aun no esta en vigencia porque falta      
depositar -en el bloque- unas simples pero indispensables formalidades.                           
                                                                                                  
Sin ese acuerdo, es mas dificil todavia regularizar la situacion de los brasiguayos, sostuvo.     
Agrego que la situacion empeora cuando ellos ni siquiera tuvieron acceso a la escuela.            
                                                                                                  
El canciller reclama al presidente paraguayo Fernando Lugo proteccion a los brasiguayos y relata  
que algunos de estos sufrieron atropello a sus propiedades. "Espera que el Gobierno paraguayo     
cumpla con su promesa de actuar cumpliendo estrictamente la legislacion vigente, preservando los  
derechos de los migrantes que desean colaborar para el desarrollo del pais", relata Folha de Sao  
Paulo.                                                                                            

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   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-01-12 14:45:04</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-03-13 09:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5539167_discussion-brz-fm-fears-more-acts-of-violence-in-agriculture.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5539759</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION - AQ plot in Russia...
</title>
    <description>   this was a friday night comment... so i dunno how much vodka was in it.
   ah, russia

   Reva Bhalla wrote:

     wow, if that's the message they're feeding you, then that does a pretty
     good job of convincing me that this was fabricated
     On Apr 17, 2009, at 9:58 AM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

       from RU101 (Kremlin official):  According to the FSB, this is a lesson
       to all those who help the Americans out with their wars... we're the
       ones who get hit.

       Fred Burton wrote:

         Lauren is spot on.  The Russians, unlike us, have learned their
         lesson. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
         [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Lauren Goodrich
         Sent: Friday, April 17, 2009 9:27 AM
         To: Analyst List
         Cc: 'CT AOR'
         Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - AQ plot in Russia...
         Russia isn't going to get involved in the fight... just ain't gonna
         happen.

         Reva Bhalla wrote:

           also, if we assume for a sec that the plot is real, let's look at
           the motive...
           yes, the Afghan jihadists hate the Russians. But they also dont
           want Russia to get involved in the fight. Why provoke Moscow?
           On Apr 17, 2009, at 9:23 AM, Ben West wrote:

             Right, the target set is completely different - the only
             similarity that's there is the easter link.  Considering AQ has
             never shown any interest in attacking on Easter before the
             Manchester plot, I find it interesting that all of a sudden
             there's another Easter plot in Russia. 

             Lauren Goodrich wrote:

               that was against "western decadence" though.... these targets
               have nothing to do with that....
               plus it is nearly impossible to get a taxi near Lubyanka.

               Ben West wrote:

                 The fact that it was timed for Easter (albeit orthodox
                 easter so different day) makes me think maybe this was
                 linked to the thwarted UK plot.
                 The MO is different though - in Manchester they were going
                 after shopping centers and soft targets, but these targets
                 are WAY harder.  They are going to have way more security
                 and wouldn't be as easy to penetrate.  If this was a real
                 threat, it was much more ambitious than the Manchester plot.

                 Lauren Goodrich wrote:

                   **okay... I was forwarded a "leak" from a Pravda
                   journalist who said that the FSB was claiming that a major
                   terrorist (AQ, not Chechen) was thwarted.... I put the
                   details that were "leaked"... &amp; then my conversation with
                   the chief Kremlin guy on this topic &amp; his reservations
                   about the FSB's claim...
                    
                   Leaked from an FSB rep to media pal...
                   Who: al-Qaeda (8 foreign "suspects" have been arrested)
                   When: Orthodox Easter... this weekend.
                   Targets: Lubyanka, Kazan Capital Building, MIA and United
                   Russia offices
                   How: taxis filled with explosives... so car bombs
                   (confiscated by the FSB)
                   About the suspects:
                   -used fake guest-worker passports (both Indian and Azeri)
                   to get into Kazan
                   -the men were fluent in Russian, Pushtu, Dari, Arab and
                   Turkish
                    
                   CONVERSATION WITH SENIOR KREMLIN WHO IS PART OF THIS (a
                   back and forth conversation, so it is a bit disjointed):
                    
                   -I can just confirm to you that the leaked plots are very
                   real or so I have been told by the FSB. We will not let it
                   happen of course if they are, especially not now.
                   -I have been kept off the investigative part of this case
                   since the FSB and Tatar security agencies are taking it,
                   though I will most likely be prosecuting the suspects
                   unless it gets transferred to MIA.
                   -It was not just car bombs, but taxis specifically since
                   so many foreigners drive taxis in Moscow, so it would make
                   them inconspicuous.
                   -There is no Chechen link to these plots, but the FSB is
                   saying they are South Asian al Qaeda. It could be linked
                   to Russia's role in Afghanistan, though I am just
                   speculating. It is unheard of such an attack inside of
                   Russia that does not have Chechen links, but the FSB
                   assures me that it is separate.
                   -This is what has made me a touch suspicious of this plot.
                   The FSB has become rather mouthy recently about how the
                   US's war will stir up militants who will be angry at
                   Russia for helping the US. It also comes after your
                   company's articles on a possible backlash if Russia should
                   get involved. And suddenly a highly intricate and well
                   developed plot (in which the suspects already had their
                   passports and were in the country with explosives ready)
                   is uncovered that I would expect to take some time to
                   organize.
                   -The other part that does not quiet make sense to me is
                   why there were plots in Kazan. The other targets makes
                   sense (though United Russia building is a stretch since it
                   is not part of foreign policy or security), but to strike
                   Kazan would hit part of these guys' networks and really
                   piss off those that harbor them.
                   -I have to go with the FSB's assessment that this was a
                   real plot, though I have my doubts that I can not of
                   course come out with.
                    
                    

                   &lt;!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--&gt;
                   &lt;!--[endif]--&gt;  
                   --
                   Lauren Goodrich
                   Director of Analysis
                   Senior Eurasia Analyst
                   STRATFOR
                   T: 512.744.4311
                   F: 512.744.4334
                   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
                   www.stratfor.com

 --
 Ben West
 Terrorism and Security Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin,TX
 Cell: 512-750-9890

               --
               Lauren Goodrich
               Director of Analysis
               Senior Eurasia Analyst
               STRATFOR
               T: 512.744.4311
               F: 512.744.4334
               lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
               www.stratfor.com

 --
 Ben West
 Terrorism and Security Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin,TX
 Cell: 512-750-9890

         --
         Lauren Goodrich
         Director of Analysis
         Senior Eurasia Analyst
         STRATFOR
         T: 512.744.4311
         F: 512.744.4334
         lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
         www.stratfor.com

       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       STRATFOR
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-04-17 17:02:42</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5539759_re-discussion-aq-plot-in-russia-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>ct@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5539804</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - RUSSIA/HEALTH - restrictions for swine flu control
</title>
    <description>    
   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: One of the top within the Kremlin circle  
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
    
   We have no cases thus far and I mean that. I am not just telling you that.
    
   As you mentioned we have already stopped all meat shipments form the
   Western Hemisphere. No meat from South, Central or North America after the
   package date of April 21 will be allowed in the country. We are
   considering cutting all meat shipments from any region, but will watch the
   next few days before we take that step. Also, if the West can get this
   flue under control we could open up our meat imports in as soon as one
   week.
    
   Anyone on a plane that has anyone coming from the US, Canada or Mexico is
   being checked for the Swine Flue. We are lucky that there are no direct
   flights from Mexico to Russia, but it has also made it difficult to screen
   those passengers that have been from Mexico and stopped off in Europe or
   other destinations before arriving in Russia. But it does not matter if
   the plane stopped in a different location, but everyone on board will have
   their temperatures checked with contact-free heat sensors. The same for
   their luggage. Any plane arriving in Russia is being sprayed with
   disinfectant upon arrival and unused meal in any plane arriving in Russia
   is being destroyed.

   We understand such outbreaks and have taken measures similar to this when
   Avian flue broke out in Asia and we are constantly battling Bovine Fever
   in the Caucasus from Africa.
    
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-04-28 14:01:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5539804_insight-russia-health-restrictions-for-swine-flu-control-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>mailto:analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>ListName</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5540137</id>
    <title>Re: Every time I leave country.....
</title>
    <description>   Doing ok.... was uncomfortable tonight at a happy hour when I started
   passing my card out to a table of 9 energy company presidents and a Dutch
   guy goes "Stratfor? I didn't know the CIA operated this far from home!
   Guess its not just the Russians tapping our phones at the hotel tonight,
   lads." Then half the table (mainly Saudis, Algerians, Libyans, etc) got up
   and left bc of me. Grrrrreeeeat. I tried to explain that the CIA doesn't
   know a tenth of what I do about this country, but they were freaked out.
   Oh well...
   Other than that things are good. I went to a market this morning and
   bought a ton of fresh fruits (it is apple, strawberry and cherry season
   here &amp; fruit is allll over the place). I'm also obsessed with the gym &amp;
   swimming pool here... but I think I offend the Muslim men every time I go
   down there, but oh well, it isn't against the law even if they don't like
   it.
   I hope Jez is good for you!!

   rwgo6@aol.com wrote:

     You said a few days ago tht you thought that this would happen - when is
     she getting married?  You haven't gotten out of debt for the last one
     yet...I am so happy for her!  How are you?  Is the conference
     interesting?  Jez is doing much better!  She's sleeping with me and
     doing just fine.  No doubt that she misses you, though.  She and
     Schnitzie and Anya gave your dad a Father's Day II gift and card - he
     got a kick out of it. The dinner at Mimi's was yummy!  Love and miss
     you, Mom

     -----Original Message-----
     From: Lauren Goodrich &lt;goodrich@stratfor.com&gt;
     To: jennifer johnson &lt;jenniferjohnson22@hotmail.com&gt;; Audrey Rocha
     &lt;audrey_n_rocha@yahoo.com&gt;; rwgo6@aol.com; Meredith Miles
     &lt;mgmiles@comcast.net&gt;; Carter Goodrich &lt;ckgoodrich@gmail.com&gt;
     Sent: Sun, Jun 21, 2009 10:57 pm
     Subject: Every time I leave country.....

     Every time I leave the country...... someone gets engaged.....
     Jen Hebert got engaged last night to her boyfriend Johnathan....
     He is fabulous and I am so happy for them.
     But unfortunately I am maid of honor and have another wedding to deal
     with-- yuck.
     Just kidding... I have a feeling she'll have Meredith-like organization
     with her planning.
     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     STRATFOR
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     A Good Credit Score is 700 or Above. See yours in just 2 easy steps!

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-06-22 19:16:37</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5540137_re-every-time-i-leave-country-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>rwgo6@aol.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5540258</id>
    <title>Re: T-Weekly next week?
</title>
    <description>   I've seen it too... fully understand the consequences.
   The Russians are so much crazier than what ppl think.

   Fred Burton wrote:

     The ragheads and white hate nuts are wimps.  The Russians are killers. 
     With your properties and such, it may behoove you not to toss kerosine
     on a fire.  I've seen them kill.   

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Wednesday, March 26, 2008 5:01 PM
     To: Fred Burton
     Cc: 'scott stewart'
     Subject: Re: T-Weekly next week?
     I am addressing this with both my father and with Chaika tonight...
     FSB and Surkov's group already know I work here, so going to ask if it
     matters anymore... I more worried about my picture than my name, but I
     will let y'all know.

     Fred Burton wrote:

       sounds good
        
       but, are you sure that you want your name on it Lauren, in light of
       your past issues and your father? 
        
       these folks don't mess around and everybody already hates me.   stick
       too. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: scott stewart [mailto:scott.stewart@stratfor.com]
       Sent: Wednesday, March 26, 2008 4:44 PM
       To: 'Fred Burton'
       Cc: 'Lauren Goodrich'
       Subject: FW: T-Weekly next week?
       FB,
        
       Is this OK with you?
        
       I think it's an interesting subject.
        
       -----Original Message-----
       From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
       Sent: Wednesday, March 26, 2008 5:07 PM
       To: scott stewart
       Subject: T-Weekly next week?

       Hey Stick...
       Peter mentioned that my discussion on the rise in high profile
       killings in Russia could be the T-Weekly.
       That sounds great to me if you're on board.
       Plus you'd get the week off from writing it. ;-)
       Lemme know and I'm game.
       --

       Lauren Goodrich
       Eurasia Analyst
       Stratfor
       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

     --

     Lauren Goodrich
     Eurasia Analyst
     Stratfor
     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2008-03-26 23:04:20</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5540258_re-t-weekly-next-week-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>burton@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>scott.stewart@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5540308</id>
    <title>Re: MORE Re: INSIGHT - CHINA/MONGOLIA - Uranium - CN65
</title>
    <description>   yea.. .there were quite a few indians at the mining conference that was
   staying at my hotel.
   they weren't so fun to talk to (sticks in the mud).

   Reva Bhalla wrote:

     the Indians have also been dealing heavily with the Kaz in getting their
     uranium. when i was there last there was a giant Kaz delegation there
     and my Indian defense contacts said all their talks centered on uranium
     deals. not sure how much trouble the indians have had in seeing htese
     deals through but i can find out
     On Jul 29, 2009, at 8:13 AM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

       Kaz owns their own uranium with companies that just so happen to have
       Kremlin-ers on the boards...
       I even talked to Chinese companies about this while in Kaz and they
       told me how hard it was to get into uranium there.

       Rodger Baker wrote:

         l can see if i can get any more info from the mongolians on this if
         we are interested. 
         let me know
         On Jul 29, 2009, at 8:01 AM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

           i thought the russians pretty much owned the uranium industry in
           Kaz

           is my info dated?

           Jennifer Richmond wrote:

             In response to my question: Do you mean to say that China is now
             interested in Mongolia because they are possibly being blocked
             by Russian interests in Kazakhstan?

             No, the Chinese have pretty much wrapped up the uranium in
             Kazakhstan, and now they are trying to secure uranium in
             Mongolia as well.  Interestingly, CNNC or its subsidiaries were
             involved in both countries.
             In China, the importation of uranium is controlled by the
             central government.  They have theoretically always done this,
             but in the middle of last year they reiterated central control
             of uranium imports.  Effectively, most imports are either
             undertaken by CNNC, China Guangdong, or Sino Steel (yes, that
             last one is correct).  There may be one other authorised
             importer.  All of this means that any uranium investment is more
             centrally planned and controlled than any other outward
             investment.
             As for the Russians, I suspect they or the Americans may have
             prodded the Mongolians to rebuff the Chinese after they took
             their stake in Western Prospector.  Alternatively, the
             Mongolians may have chosen to do it on their own volition.
              Either way, the Russians are feeling under pressure.

             Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

               SOURCE: CN65
               ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government
               and 
               natural resources
               SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator.  Source is 
               well-connected politically, militarily and economically.  He
               has become a
               private businessman helping foreign companies with M&amp;As
               PUBLICATION: Yes but with no attribution
               SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
               ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2/3
               DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
               SPECIAL HANDLING: None
               SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

               CNNC (China National Nuclear Corporation) recently acquired a
               majority stake in Western Prospector, whose sole project is
               the Gurvanbulag Central deposit in Mongolia.  This deposit is
               actually covered by tenements in favour of three companies -
               Western Prospector, Khan, and Laramide.  My suspicion is that
               the CNNC move on Western Prospector was the prelude to raids
               both of the other companies, with a view to possible merger.
                Laramide is particularly vulnerable, as the weak equity
               market has constrained their ability to raise capital.
                Laramide has projects in Australia, which are currently on
               care &amp; maintenance for this reason.
               As you know, relations between China and Mongolia are strained
               from time to time.  The question is whether this has been
               stoked by Russia, who would not have been happy with China
               taking 70% of Kazatomprom, and other Kazakh uranium processing
               assets earlier this year.  Russia, in turn, is quietly trying
               to get a foothold in Australian uranium exploration, which is
               the first time this has happened. 
               In short, China's massive nuclear power expansion plan
               requires significant amounts of uranium.  This has led them to
               try to secure uranium in Central Asia and Mongolia, which it
               might consider in its sphere of influence.  The problem is the
               Russians have pretensions/expectations there also.

       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       STRATFOR
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-07-29 15:31:43</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 14:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5540308_re-more-re-insight-china-mongolia-uranium-cn65-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5540949</id>
    <title>Re: DISCUSSION - New EU Commission
</title>
    <description>   I had chatted with Marko over the phone on this because the Russians were
   chatting about it constantly while I was in Moscow.
   The Russians are ecstatic that the Germans have the energy portfolio.
   First off, Oettinger is pretty pro-Russian in his energy ideas and has
   relationships throughout Moscow. Also, he is weak enough that he'll bend
   to Merkel on most items, but all other things can be easily bought by
   Moscow.

   Marko Papic wrote:

     Ok, so the new EU Commission has been announced.

     What is the relevance of this EU Commission? Well for one, the Germans
     and the French have LOCKED DOWN the two key posts: internal market and
     energy!  How did they do this? By brilliant manuvering. They gave the
     Poles the EP Presidency, which Warsaw thought was uber important but is
     mainly ceremonial. That was the first key EU post and they gave it to
     the Poles first, who bought it like crazy. Then they got UK out of EU's
     internal business by giving London the FM post. This was not as "cheap"
     as the EP President, BUT it gave the post to a relative unknown Brit who
     is from Labor and now owes her relevancy completely to the EU.

     BRILLIANT.

     Here are the next steps:

       * 11-19 Jan. 2010: Hearings with the newly-nominated commissioners
         in the European Parliament.
       * 26 Jan. 2010: Final vote of the European Parliament on the full
         Commission (9.00-11.00 debate in plenary; 11.00-12.00 political
         group meetings; 12.00-13.00 vote in plenary). 
       * 1 Feb. 2010: New Commission expected to take office.
     Entire line up (my comments in orange):

     The appointments in full:

       * Jose Manuel Barroso (Portugal): President With Van Rompuy as EU
         President, Barroso still retains power. Imagine if Blair was EU
         President. It would be Barroso who?
       * Joaquin Almunia (Spain): Competition  According to EU sources, he is
         loyal to Barroso (makes sense, they are Iberian). He is also a bad
         ass. Expect him to take member states to court if he deems they are
         being protectionist. Will piss off Berlin and Paris for sure.
       * Catherine Ashton (UK): Foreign Affairs High Representative As I
         said, this was a great choice for Berlin and Paris. They get UK off
         of their hands with a post that will not let UK meddle in EU
         internal affairs.
       * Michel Barnier (France): Internal Market and Services BOOM. This
         shows how RETARDED Brown is. He installed a relative unknown who may
         go "native" into the FM post and gave up the internal market and
         services to the FRENCH!!! The City of London is PISSED.
       * Olli Rehn (Finland): Economic and Monetary Affairs Former
         Enlargement guy gets this post, also loyal to Barroso, will
         undoubtedly piss off Berlin and Paris.
       * Dacian Ciolos (Romania): Agriculture
       * John Dalli (Malta): Health and Consumer Policy Wow... granted, the
         Maltese are super health conscious, so if you're Monsanto or
         Sagenta, you are NOT happy.
       * Karel De Gucht (Belgium): Trade
       * Stefan Fu:le (Czech Republic): Enlargement This was something that
         was discussed. A new member state gets the enlargement portfolio.
         Nice compromise here as well, since Prague is not as crazy about
         Ukraine/Georgia
       * Connie Hedegaard (Denmark): Climate Action Denmark gets climate
         action, poignant.
       * Maire Geoghegan-Quinn (Ireland): Research and Innovation
       * Janusz Lewandowski (Poland): Budget/Financial Programming
       * Guenther Oettinger (Germany): Energy HUUUUUGE... Germany gets a key
         post and screws Central Europeans completely
       * Janez Potocnik (Slovenia): Environment Slovenians got on the whole
         "green" bandwaggon first, so this is cute.
       * Neelie Kroes (Netherlands): Digital Agenda
       * Laszlo Andor (Hungary): Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion Oh
         God... Hungarians in charge of employment...
       * Maria Damanaki (Greece): Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Makes sense.
       * Johannes Hahn (Austria): Regional Policy Tame choice.
       * Rumiana Jeleva (Bulgaria): International Cooperation, Humanitarian
         Aid and Crisis Response
       * Siim Kallas (Estonia): Transport
       * Cecilia Malmstro:m (Sweden): Home Affairs
       * Andris Piebalgs (Latvia): Development
       * Viviane Reding (Luxembourg): Justice, Fundamental Rights and
         Citizenship
       * Algirdas Semeta (Lithuania): Taxation and Customs Union
       * Antonio Tajani (Italy): Industry and Entrepreneurship This is
         usually the DG that fights with all the free market DGs, so Italian
         running it is a key.
       * Androulla Vassiliou (Cyprus): Education, Culture, Multilingualism
         and Youth  
       * Maros Sefcovic (Slovakia): Interinstitutional Relations and
         Administration

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2009-11-29 17:19:27</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-08-24 04:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5540949_re-discussion-new-eu-commission-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5542676</id>
    <title>[Fwd: For the New-Tern]
</title>
    <description></description>
    <date>2008-08-19 19:01:46</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-27 00:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5542676_-fwd-for-the-new-tern-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
      <file><path>attach/126/126613_FSU sweep list.doc</path><size>41472</size><md5></md5><sha1>5f504b22a86e21d054996eec9a56c763f6430ca8</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/126/126616_GV Client List for Team.doc</path><size>44032</size><md5></md5><sha1>3cb219e751d88534b8296db27ea760bd858c2056</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/174/174277_FSU sites.doc</path><size>46080</size><md5></md5><sha1>782c029b6bb316d660abf800e649bd580506ee07</sha1></file>
      <file><path>attach/175/175579_GEOPOLITICAL IMPERATIVE - RUSSIA.doc</path><size>535552</size><md5></md5><sha1>522ee9fc8d1574ae578b249e35837e189654810c</sha1></file>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5542707</id>
    <title>Re: From Russian source
</title>
    <description>   Crimea is 90% dependent on Russia economically and socially...
   it would split from Ukr in a heartbeat.

   Peter Zeihan wrote:

     source is correct -- Crimea only became Ukrainian territory recently

     hell, Ukraine didn't have any political identity separate from Russia
     until very recently

     but a 'legal' challenge wouldn't work -- founding charter of the CIS
     (1993) recognized the soviet provincial boundaries

     of course we've seen in the past month how little that actually
     means....

     George Friedman wrote:

       Did you know the Crimea was Russian until Kruschev gave it to the
       Ukrainian SSR in 1954 or 1956? The only legal deal between modern
       Russia and Ukraine is a 1997 friendship Treaty and if it were
       rescinded then the legal status of the Crimea could be challenged.
        
       Fundementally, the Russians strongly feel that although the USSR broke
       up in 1991, it was on the understanding of further closeness amongst
       its core members and they feel betrayed this hasn't happened
       (especially in Ukraine
        
        
        
       So this is how the Russians would approach the Sevastapol issue.
        
       George Friedman
       Chief Executive Officer
       STRATFOR
       512.744.4319 phone
       512.744.4335 fax
       gfriedman@stratfor.com
       _______________________
        
       http://www.stratfor.com
       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
       700 Lavaca St
       Suite 900
       Austin, Texas 78701
        

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   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2008-08-27 17:02:12</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-02-29 08:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5542707_re-from-russian-source-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5542777</id>
    <title>Re: Updating your bio
</title>
    <description>   it was below the banner.... here...
   LAUREN GOODRICH
   Eurasia Analyst
    
    
   Lauren Goodrich is Stratfor's Director of Analysis and Senior Eurasia
   analyst, overseeing research and daily analysis on all matters pertaining
   the world, but also specifically to the Former Soviet states and European
   Union. Ms. Goodrich has lived in numerous countries - including Russia,
   Germany, France, Ireland, the United Kingdom, Belize, Costa Rica, Israel,
   Lebanon and Egypt. She holds an associate's degree in theology from
   Perkins School of Theology in Dallas, Texas; a bachelor's degree in Slavic
   Language and Culture, specializing in the Russian language, from Tomsk
   Polytechnical University and the University of Texas; and degrees in
   religious studies and Russian, Eastern European and Eurasian studies from
   the University of Texas, where she is currently completing a master's
   program.
    
   Before joining Stratfor in 2005, Ms. Goodrich worked for two years as a
   professor at Tomsk Polytechnical University, where she was the first
   American hired on staff. As a teenager, Ms. Goodrich became active with
   the World Peace Foundation, building hospitals, clinics, schools and
   orphanages around the world. In 1996, she organized her own nonprofit
   organization, the Russian Peace Foundation, which has established five
   orphanages in Russia and a school for the deaf in Tomsk. She continues to
   lead and organize medical and dental missions to Russia and other parts of
   the world. 
    
    
   Areas of Expertise:
    
   Russian personalities, political system, oligarchs, businesses and energy
   infrastructure
   The former Soviet Union past and present
   Politics of the Balkans
   European energy politics, companies and infrastructure

   Brian Genchur wrote:

     Haha.  Yeah, but all I got was a picture of the Stratfor Profile
     banner.  Something is not right with this picture....
      
     Brian Genchur
     Public Relations
     STRATFOR
     www.stratfor.com
     PR@stratfor.com
     512-744-4309 - office
      

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Wednesday, September 10, 2008 6:27 PM
     To: Brian Genchur
     Subject: Re: Updating your bio
     I sent updates... that is what you wanted, right?

     Brian Genchur wrote:

       Eh?
        
       Brian Genchur
       Public Relations
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com
       PR@stratfor.com
       512-744-4309 - office
        

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
       Sent: Wednesday, September 10, 2008 6:23 PM
       To: Brian Genchur
       Subject: Re: Updating your bio
        
       LAUREN GOODRICH
       Eurasia Analyst
        
        
       Lauren Goodrich is Stratfor's Director of Analysis and Senior Eurasia
       analyst, overseeing research and daily analysis on all matters
       pertaining the world, but also specifically to the Former Soviet
       states and European Union. Ms. Goodrich has lived in numerous
       countries - including Russia, Germany, France, Ireland, the United
       Kingdom, Belize, Costa Rica, Israel, Lebanon and Egypt. She holds an
       associate's degree in theology from Perkins School of Theology in
       Dallas, Texas; a bachelor's degree in Slavic Language and Culture,
       specializing in the Russian language, from Tomsk Polytechnical
       University and the University of Texas; and degrees in religious
       studies and Russian, Eastern European and Eurasian studies from the
       University of Texas, where she is currently completing a master's
       program.
        
       Before joining Stratfor in 2005, Ms. Goodrich worked for two years as
       a professor at Tomsk Polytechnical University, where she was the first
       American hired on staff. As a teenager, Ms. Goodrich became active
       with the World Peace Foundation, building hospitals, clinics, schools
       and orphanages around the world. In 1996, she organized her own
       nonprofit organization, the Russian Peace Foundation, which has
       established five orphanages in Russia and a school for the deaf in
       Tomsk. She continues to lead and organize medical and dental missions
       to Russia and other parts of the world. 
        
        
       Areas of Expertise:
        
       Russian personalities, political system, oligarchs, businesses and
       energy infrastructure
       The former Soviet Union past and present
       Politics of the Balkans
       European energy politics, companies and infrastructure
        

       Brian Genchur wrote:

         Hi Lauren,
          
         I am updating bios for all of our analysts.  When you have time,
         please look over your bio and add any additional information or make
         any changes that you see fit.
          
         Thank you!
          
         Brian Genchur
         Public Relations
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         PR@stratfor.com
         512-744-4309 - office
          

       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       Stratfor
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     Stratfor
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2008-09-11 01:31:50</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5542777_re-updating-your-bio-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>brian.genchur@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5543038</id>
    <title>INSIGHT - Russia - conversation about Med's trip
</title>
    <description>   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: One of the top within the Kremlin circle, though from
   Surkov's clan.  
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
    
   [source:] Nicolai Platonovich  Patryushev is going on Medvedev's trip.
   [LG:] how do you know this?
   [source:] I unfortunately need to meet with him and learned that he would
   be out this next week.
   [LG:] Interesting. So some FSB threats &amp; muscling will be needed in Latin
   America?
   [source:] I am surprised that Igor Ivanovich is not going instead.
   [LG:] Does Patryushev have any experience in Latin American. I thought he
   worked in Belarus and Eastern Europe for KGB, right?
   [source:] Yes.
   [LG:] Most likely because Sechin was just there and already laid the
   groundwork. This still seems weird to me. Why would Russia publicly take
   FSB chief on the presidential trip? This entire group going to Latin
   America is so unorthodox. Though if Russia is trying to get specific
   messages across to the US I guess why not be blunt like a fucking club to
   the head.  
    
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2008-11-20 20:32:53</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5543038_insight-russia-conversation-about-med-s-trip-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
      <tag><name>secure@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5543048</id>
    <title>Re: INSIGHT - RUSSIA - Kremlin devisions
</title>
    <description>   I don't think there is anytihng concrete enough that has changed yet. This
   is mainly just an fyi on who is falling where for the fin crisis.

   Reva Bhalla wrote:

     should we put something short out on this? just a rumblings in the
     kremlin type piece, something to watch?

     Lauren Goodrich wrote:

       not on Putin's grip, but on the overall stability there are some major
       problems still esp with the fin crisis going on.
       Lavrov thought that recognizing would be a ridiculous and silly act...
       which it is.

       Reva Bhalla wrote:

         very interesting. are these divisions deep enough to seriously
         threaten Putin's grip on power? What were Lavrov's reasons for
         opposing the decision to recognize SO and and Abkhazia?

         Lauren Goodrich wrote:

           CODE: RU101
           PUBLICATION: sure
           ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
           SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
           ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
           SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

           There is a sense in Russia, more than ever, that it is playing it
           by ear. Divisions that had never really disappeared are
           resurfacing, such as those between liberal technocrats (Kudrin,
           Shuvalov, Dvorkovich) and hard-line Putin supporters like Igor
           Sechin, to whom oligarchs in trouble have been rushing to obtain
           tax exemptions and direct aid.
            
           These divergences reflect an essential and yet often ignored
           reality of the current crisis: the beginnings of a huge
           redistribution of assets. Apparently the Kremlin and the White
           House do not have the same list of people in need of rescue (or to
           let drown). Serious divergences also appeared in mid-august
           concerning Georgia. Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov was
           opposed to the decision to recognize the secessionist provinces of
           South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
           --
           Lauren Goodrich
           Director of Analysis
           Senior Eurasia Analyst
           Stratfor
           T: 512.744.4311
           F: 512.744.4334
           lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
           www.stratfor.com

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       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       Stratfor
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

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   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
</description>
    <date>2008-11-24 16:15:59</date><dateprecision>1</dateprecision>
    <releasedate>2012-05-10 01:00:00</releasedate>
    <permalink>http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5543048_re-insight-russia-kremlin-devisions-.html</permalink>
    <tags>
      <tag><name>analysts@stratfor.com</name><group>To</group></tag>
      <tag><name>goodrich@stratfor.com</name><group>From</group></tag>
    </tags>
    <files>
    </files>
  </doc>
</docs>
